8* West Virginia (12:00 ET):  It has been a "tough go" for both WVU and Texas Tech in Big 12 play thus far as the two schools have combined to go 2-8 SU/ATS vs. conference opponents w/ both wins (and covers) coming from the Red Raiders' side. But those SU wins came at the expense of the bottom two teams, Iowa State and Kansas, and in the case of the latter TT has the unique distinction of being the only Big 12 squad to fail to beat the Jayhawks by at least 25 points (won only 30-20). Otherwise, both WVU and Texas Tech have played the four top teams in the league: Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and each lost to them all, generally by wide margins. On paper, this might seem like a relatively even matchup, especially w/ the road team winning each of the last two years. But I'm on the Mountaineers as they should be able to take advantage of an awful Texas Tech defense.

For being at home, WVU certainly isn't getting much love from the public.  Maybe that's because they're being asked to lay more than a touchdown, or perhaps it's because of four consecutive SU/ATS losses.  But the November schedule sets up well for them as all the "hard games" are out of the way.  Drawing Baylor & TCU in B2B weeks, both on the road, is as brutal as it gets. It should be noted that the Mountaineers were favored here at home (4.5 pts) to beat Oklahoma State and finished that game w/ an edge in total yards (443-362) and first downs (26-19) only to turn the ball over four times and lose in overtime. HC Dana Holgorsen is just 18-12 SU in Morgantown during his tenure, but some home cooking is in order here.

The reason to like WVU here really doesn't have as much to do w/ them, but rather it's a play against this awful Texas Tech defense. Few, if any, stop units in the entire country are worse.  They have allowed nearly 400 more yards this season than the second worst defense and in conference play, the number is up to 613.5 YPG!  The last two games have seen them torched for 133 points and last Saturday even a 24-7 first quarter was not safe as Oklahoma State wound up hanging 70 pts and 662 yds on them. At one point, the Red Raiders allowed 8 TD's in an 11-drive span! Obviously, look for the WVU offense to take advantage.  This is also the Red Raiders' 10th consecutive game w/o a bye (WVU has had TWO byes!), so attrition is an issue as well.   8* West Virginia

8* North Carolina (12:00 ET):  This is another home favorite not getting much love from the public this week and I have to wonder why. As we all know, Duke did get absolutely hosed last week, losing on a play reminiscent of the famous Cal-Stanford 1982 game, only with the Stanford band being replaced by incompetent officiating.  However, those of us that have been following the Blue Devils this season might view that loss through a different prism and possibly as a bit of "comeuppance." After all, David Cutcliffe's team has twice won an ACC game where it was outgained, plus they were essentially dead even in total yards w/ Virginia Tech in a multi-OT road win that was decided by a two-point conversion. Twice this year, the Blue Devils have been held to 10 points or less. Last week's loss will be incredibly difficult to overcome and like WVU in its game, North Carolina has had a couple extra days to prepare here.

Interestingly enough, the last three Duke-UNC matchups have been won outright by the dog.  Clearly, I expect that trend to come to an end here. Last year, it was the Tar Heels costing the Blue Devils the ACC Coastal Division w/ a 45-20 win (as 6-pt dogs) in Durham. Forget about revenge though as this year's UNC squad is much stronger, particularly on the defensive side of the ball due to the Gene Chizik hire. While last year's team allowed a frightening 39 points and 498 yards per game, this year's group is down to 17 points and 358 yards per game. They have held all but one opponent (Georgia Tech) under 20 points.  That Georgia Tech game saw them down 21-0 late in the 1H and then allow just 10 pts after that. Last week's 26-19 win, the Heels' seventh straight, was not as close as the final score indicates as they actually led 20-3 at the half and gave up a second touchdown w/ just 4 seconds left in the game. Offensively, the Tar Heels have become far more efficient than they were in 2014. They are running far less plays per game this season (6th fewest nationally), but averaging a whopping 7.3 yards per play, which ranks 3rd in the entire country! All of North Carolina's wins this season have come by at least a touchdown, so I feel comfortable laying the points.

Duke supporters will want to point to the team's remarkable 12-1 SU/11-2 ATS road record the last two seasons.  But I'd say that's "due" to regress. Last week, the Blue Devils were listed as a 10-point home favorites and while you can argue that they "should have" won, they never were going to cover and in fact actually trailed by 12 w/ under three minutes remaining.  Overall, they have lost 22 of 25 to UNC and after losing to an inferior Tar Heels squad by 25 last year, I can't see them making up the difference necessary here.  8* North Carolina

8* Illinois (12:00 ET):  The line is moving quickly here, so I'd get down sooner rather than later. In fact, the number opened at a pick 'em before moving to Illinois -2 and then some Thursday steam has taken them over a field goal, all the way to -5!  That despite the majority of bets actually being on Purdue, which I find interesting.  Clearly, the so-called "smart money" has spoken on this one and it likes the visiting Illini as do I.  Yes, there was some early season attrition here (coaching change right before the season started) and the team's last two victories have come by a total of three points. And, yes, they've lost three in a row. But Illinois is poised to bounce back here against a bad Purdue team that's off a phony 55-45 win over Nebraska last week that was largely a byproduct of a +5 turnover margin.  Lay the points.

Illinois is off its worst game of the season, a 39-0 loss at Penn State where they were outgained 400-167.  Before that, they were beaten by Wisconsin and (unbeaten) Iowa.  In all three games, they were not favored to win.  But here they are. This is a revenge game for the Illini, who last year lost as nine-point favorites in Champaign-Urbana, 37-29, as the defense allowed a stunning 551 yards.  Even though Purdue just put up 55 points last week, I do not believe they are capable of a similar performance Saturday as their previous two games saw them score just 20 points and gain just over 550 yards total. Also, the Illini's defense is much better this year as it's allowing 125 YPG and 12 PPG less than they were at this time last season.  With four wins and just four games remaining, Illinois has to find a way to scratch out a couple of victories to become bowl eligible. With the only home game left being vs. Ohio State, there's even more pressure to win here (especially w/ interim HC Bill Cubit likely coaching for his job!) and I think they'll respond accordingly.  It also helps that RB Josh Ferguson (5.4 YPC) is back after missing the L2 games.

Purdue is a surprising 8-2 SU the L10 meetings w/ Illinois, but they have not won a November game in three years.  Last week's win came after a bye and again there was that +5 turnover differential that played a large role as those TO's were converted into 28 Boilermaker points. After the win, it was announced that despite a 6-26 SU record, HC Darrell Hazell would be back next year.  I think that decision might take "the edge off" the team slightly. As you can tell from Hazell's record, this Purdue team isn't very good and in fact LW was just their second Big 10 win in his three year tenure. Minnesota and Wisconsin beat them by a combined 65-20 margin.  The defense is giving up an average of 34.4 points and 436 yards per game.  8* Illinois

10* Under BYU/San Jose State (11:30 ET): Though I'll tell you a little a bit about it, go ahead and pretty much disregard everything from BYU's previous result, a 70-6 waste of time against FCS Wagner. Predictably, the Cougars rolled up over 700 yards of offense while allowing only 129.  That result looks impressive on the stat sheet, but is essentially meaningless in the grand scheme of things. What it has done for us, however, is inflate the total for this Friday night affair at "old friend" San Jose State.  You'll note that Brigham Young has gone Under in four of its last five games against FBS competition, many of them having O/U lines lower than the one we're working w/ here. SJSU has a really solid pass defense and I see this one staying Under the total. 

How good is San Jose State's pass defense? Well, they are holding opposing quarterbacks to just 5.8 yards per attempt, which is the second lowest average in all of FBS! Bet you didn't know that. Now, admittedly, I have a pending wager on the Spartans to finish Over their projected season win total (4.0) and all we need now is one more win.  They won their last time out, 31-21 over New Mexico, thanks in large part to a big day from RB Tyler Ervin, who went for 263 yards over land. As a whole, the offense rolled up nearly 500 total yards, but Ervin and company duplicating such a performance tonight is highly unlikely. I still have major concerns about the passing game, especially now that leading receiver Tyler Winston (35 catches, 368 yds) is out for the season w/ a knee injury. Note the game before beating New Mexico, SJSU was held to just seven points in a loss to San Diego State. In the four games in which it has been an underdog this year, San Jose State has averaged only 16.25 points per game.

But the Spartans' defense will keep them in this one. Playing on the road, against Auburn, this unit allowed only 342 total yards.  Yes, Auburn has its issues, but that's an impressive performance by SJSU.  This is BYU's first road game since getting waxed at Michigan and they haven't faced a good defense since. You'll recall that the Cougars were shut out by the Wolverines there and held to only 105 total yards.  At the same time, BYU's defense has been pretty good in its own right, save for the East Carolina game. They've allowed 24 pts or less five of the last seven games.  Points should be at a premium, all-around, in this late night affair.  10* Under BYU/San Jose State

10* Sacramento (10:35 ET):  I'm well aware that Boogie Cousins isn't expected to suit up for the Kings tonight, but a rare national TV appearance at home should have the rest of the team fired up here and I'll call for them to cover a generous spread. Last year, the Rockets and Kings finished at opposite ends of the ATS spectrum w/ the former leading the league at 59.2 percent while Sacramento "brought up the rear" at 40.3 percent.  So far in 2015-16, the early season returns haven't been all that promising on either side. You've had the predictable regression on the Houston side of things (1-4 ATS) while Sacramento is just 2-3 ATS. But this line is clearly inflated due to the Cousins' injury and I think we can take advantage.

Houston's season got off to a real ugly start as they lost each of their first three games by 20+ points, becoming the first team in league history to "accomplish" such a dubious feat.  Things have since turned for the better w/ a pair of five-point wins over Oklahoma City & Orlando (both at home). However, it was a "fight to the finish" in both as they trailed the Thunder by 11 points at halftime and then needed OT to get by the pesky Magic.  An issue that the Rockets are dealing with right now is Dwight Howard's back, which will continue to limit his time on the court. Tonight marks the front end of a back to back (at Clippers tomorrow night) for the team, so Howard's minutes may be limited or he may not play at all.  They chose to rest him entirely the first time they were in the front end of a back to back and the result was a 20-point loss at Miami. Overall, they are 0-2 w/o Howard this year, also losing by 20 to lowly Denver. 

Not facing Howard would be a big break for Sacramento considering they'll be w/o their best player too. But we do know Houston will not have the services of three key contributors: Terrance Jones, Patrick Beverley and Donatas Motiejunas.  So not having Cousins might not be THAT big of a deal for Sacramento here, all things considered.  Having to carry an increased scoring load, James Harden has really struggled from the floor (below 30 percent!). The Kings had largely been competitive before running into a hot shooting Suns team Weds night and I think are a nice value getting all these points here at home. 10* Sacramento

8* Pittsburgh (9:05 ET):  It's a big blow to both Edmonton and the entire NHL as Connor McDavid, considered (by some) to be the best prospect to come down the pike in the last 20 years, is now out for 6-8 weeks w/ a collarbone injury. The Oilers still weren't really good w/ him, going 5-8 so far, though the returns were still early. Now, they have to get over the shock of losing McDavid and the fact they were a 62-point team w/o him last year (3rd fewest in the league). Their first test is going to be a major challenge as in comes Pittsburgh, who has now won five straight, four of them on the road. One of the most encouraging signs for the Pens is that they rank 2nd in the league in goals allowed (1.8 per game!), which is miles apart from Edmonton's 26th place (3.2 gpg) ranking.  I'm on the favorite.

The fact we're being robbed of the first McDavid-Sidney Crosby matchup is criminal for the fans, but even more so for the Oilers. McDavid was second on the team in both goals (5) and assists (7), so we should see a sharp decrease in offensive production compared to the L3 games, each of which have seen Edmonton find the back of the net four times. Besides McDavid, this is a team dealing w/ a number of other injuries.  Goaltending is another issue and perhaps the biggest one. Cam Talbot has been getting the majority of starts between the pipes and has a woeful .897 save percentage so far and has allowed 15 goals his L4 starts (3.79 GAA).  It's not like the defense is giving up a ton of shots either (29.8 per game), so that makes Talbot's overall performance look even worse.

Pittsburgh has allowed a total of just 41 shots its last two games, wins over Toronto and Vancouver by a combined 7-2 score.  They have had no such issues in net as Marc-Andre Fleury has played very well, turning in a .939 save percentage and 1.79 GAA so far while stopping all but four of the last 114 shots he's faced! Also helping his cause is that the Pens have a top three penalty killing unit (89.7 percent). The fact they have been able to win at this rate w/o their offense performing up to its usual standard is actually a good sign. This looks like a total mismatch.  8* Pittsburgh

8* New Orleans (8:05 ET):  With Anthony Davis thought to be ready to ascend to the top of the league, the Pelicans came into 2015-16 w/ a lot of promise. So far, they've failed to deliver. They are 0-4, both straight up and against the spread, but two of the games were against Golden State. On paper, things don't get a whole lot easier this evening as in comes Atlanta, the team that finished w/ the best record in the Eastern Conference last year. The Hawks have won five in a row as well, however, those wins have all come at the expense of bad Eastern Conference teams, only one of whom made the playoffs a season ago and that was Brooklyn, who is awful this year. I just can't see New Orleans continuing to lose, so I'll take the points here.

Both of these teams were big winners at the betting window last season (ATL 57.9% ATS, NO 57.1%). Thus, you would expect some slight regression this year seeing as both were surprise teams in 2014-15.  Atlanta hasn't really been asked to lay big points this season, though they did lose outright as seven-point chalk in the opener.  They haven't lost since, but three of the five wins have come by six points or less. It was a two-point game entering the fourth quarter vs. Brooklyn Wednesday. Fortunately (for them), they were able to connect on 59 percent of their FG attempts in the second half, but as you know that's a very difficult, if not impossible, pace to maintain.  They also benefited from 19 Nets' turnovers. There were actually 14 lead changes in the game and the Hawks didn't go up by double digits until there were less than five minutes remaining.

At home last year, Atlanta was dominant. On the road, they were far more fallible, going only 25-16 SU.  They lost here in New Orleans, as a three-point favorite, 115-100.  The Pelicans are coming off B2B home losses, so they are desperate here.  I cannot fathom Davis continuing to play as poorly as he has to this point and the team is likely to see its shooting improve across the board.  Davis' own shooting has been worse than any four-game stretch last season for him. Injuries have literally hurt the Pelicans so far, as has facing Steph Curry twice, but I expect better from this team tonight. 8* New Orleans

8* Boston (7:35 ET): I view these teams as being pretty even. Therefore, the Celtics getting points, at home, seems like a really good value. The reason for this value is that since winning it season opener (112-95 over Philadelphia), Boston has lost three straight. Two of those defeats came at the hands of San Antonio and Toronto. The other was Wednesday, a 2-point loss at Indiana as a road favorite. The result of this is that the market has shifted too far against Brad Stevens' team.  Washington is 3-1 SU and off a buzzer-beating victory over San Antonio, at home, Wednesday night.  Such a high profile win is likely to attract extra attention from the public, so we have a bit of a "double whammy" here as the home team is undervalued and the road team overvalued.

The Wizards needed a 36-point fourth quarter to overcome the Spurs Weds night. It was a wild game as they jumped out to a 19-2 advantage right out of the gate, only for San Antonio to counter w/ a 28-5 run of their own.  While it's tough to decipher anything from that kind of inconsistency, what's not up for dispute is that Washington's defense has been subpar.  Twice they have allowed 113+ points this season. They have allowed 50+ in the first half of every game.  While they have a 3-1 SU record, all three wins have come by five points or less.  In road games where the O/U line falls into the 205 to 209.5 point range, they are just 3-9 straight up (L3 seasons).   It will be interesting to see how they fare against a Celtics team that's averaging 30 PPG in the fourth quarter this year.

Slow starts have hurt Boston so far (19 PPG in the first quarter).  So has a poor overall shooting percentage of 40.2% (28th in the league). You have to figure both of those numbers will start to go up.  Defensively, as expected, the team has been solid, limiting its foes to 41.5 percent shooting, even though they are giving up 100.7 points per game.  They held Indiana to just 38.5% shooting Wednesday, but turnovers really killed the Celtics as they had 19 of them, which were converted into 22 Pacers' points. Fortunately, Boston is 26-17 ATS when off 3+ losses the L3 seasons, so I see them bouncing back here at home tonight. 8* Boston

6* Puck Line Columbus (10:35 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Blue Jackets +1.5.   Columbus' early season struggles have been well documented, but they have now won three of five w/ both losses coming by exactly one goal. In fact, they have not been beaten by more than one goal since HC John Tortorella took over! That makes them a solid value on the PL this evening, in a surprisingly good situation, as they visit Los Angeles to play the red-hot Kings, who are off a tough two-game road trip against Chicago and St. Louis. I wouldn't be surprised at all if a major letdown happened here for the home team.

The Kings have won eight of nine w/ the only defeat coming in Chicago Monday where they blew an early 2-1 lead. They bounced back the following night w/ an impressive 3-0 shut out of the Blues, in St. Louis, who were held to just 24 shots for the game.  However, here at home, there have been some issues, namely a scoring average of just 1.9 goals per game.  As good as the Kings have looked since that 0-3 start, half of their eight wins have come by exactly one goal. 

The Blue Jackets have absolutely been better since Tortorella took over, particularly Sergei Bobrovsky, who has a .925 save percentage his L4 games after an ugly start.  But it was the offense carrying the load w/ a season-high five goals in an impressive win at San Jose Tuesday.  Then again, maybe we shouldn't change Bobrovsky as he had to make 41 saves in a game his team was badly outshot.  The bottom line is that Columbus is much improved since that awful start and a good value getting an additional 1.5 goals. 6* Puck Line Columbus (+1.5)

10* Missouri (9:00 ET):  Things have gotten ugly in Columbia, at least on the offensive side of the ball, where QB Maty Mauk has been suspended for the rest of the season and this unit has averaged a paltry 14.9 points per game for the season, including three consecutive games w/o a touchdown (just 12 pts total)! However, Mizzou can at least hang its hat on a defense that is doing its damnedest (pardon my french!) to keep this team in ball games. The Tigers are allowing just 12.5 PPG this season (3rd in FBS!) and no team has scored more than 21 pts against them. That makes them a dangerous home dog, at least in my opinion, against a Mississippi State team that might be floating "under the radar," but is nowhere near as strong as its 6-2 SU record seems to indicate.  Take the points in this one.

For being an SEC West team, Mississippi State really hasn't played anyone in a while. They stepped out of conference for a while, hosting Louisiana Tech and Troy in B2B weeks, before welcoming Kentucky to Starkville on October 24th.  The offense topped 40 points in all three victories, but that simply will not be the case here against a defense that is sixth nationally in yards allowed per game and third in yards allowed per play.  MSU's only real "true" tests this season came against LSU and Texas A&M and they lost both, getting held to just 36 points total. In fact, they've been held to 19 pts or less in three of four SEC games so far.  Because the Bulldogs did so well last season (10-3 SU) and has a pretty nice record to this point, I think many are now forgetting that HC Dan Mullen returned only seven starters from the 2014 squad and was projected to finish in last place in the vaunted SEC West.

With the poor offense and great defense, it should come as no great shock that Missouri is 8-0 Under the total this year. Initially, I wanted to buck the trend and go Over here, but curiously that number has been bet up, taking away some of the value. However, there's still plenty of value in taking the points in this one as the Tigers have lost just one game by more than one score and that was against likely SEC East champ Florida. Freshman QB Drew Lock, now the permanent starter, has had plenty of game experience (four starts) w/ Mauk in and out of the lineup and with an extra week to prepare should have one of his better games to date. A defense which has allowed more than 300 total yards only twice will keep the Tigers in this one.  10* Missouri

10* Dallas (8:35 ET): Charlotte is just 2-19 SU all-time vs. the Mavericks, including 0-11 here in Dallas. All trends are eventually due to regress, but this one won't be doing so tonight as I think the Mavs are a) being undervalued and b) due for a big bounce back. Tuesday saw them lose their home opener, to Toronto, 102-91 as two-point dogs. Their only other loss this year was to the Clippers, a game where I nailed the Under. The Hornets have played hard this year, but suffice to say Tuesday's 130-105 beatdown of the Bulls (at home) was more "blip" than "trend" as in the first three games they'd failed to top 94 points. Offense has been an issue under HC Steve Clifford and I just don't think the visitors will have enough in the tank to stay with the home favorites tonight. Lay the points.

To give you some reference, Dallas checked in as a 9.5-pt favorite when they hosted Charlotte last year. I'm not convinced that the market shifting this much is justified. Tuesday against Toronto was a much closer game than the final score indicated as it was a one-point contest heading into the fourth quarter when the Mavs would go on to shoot a pretty woeful 6 of 22 from the floor. One issue right now is the minutes restriction on Chandler Parsons (offseason knee injury), although I think it's unfair to pin the loss to the Raptors solely on that. One reason I think that the Mavs are undervalued coming into this season is that they were actually one of the worst ATS teams in the league last year (35-48-4), which means a likely "market correction" is coming. Plus there's a perception that the team has "fallen off" (did win 51 games LY!), which may be true, but I'm not sure to the degree that's being called for.

After shooting below 41 percent from the floor in each of their first three games, the Hornets were at 51.6% in Tuesday's breakout performance over Chicago. I think it's very likely that we'll see a drastic falloff tonight. Consider that in 13 of the past 14 meetings w/ Dalllas, Charlotte has been held below 100 points. That includes 80.5 PPG in last season's two defeats. Though the Hornets have been historically profitable in this price range, on the road, they fail tonight. 10* Dallas

10* Cleveland (8:25 ET): It does appear as if Johnny Manziel will be the starter here for the Cleveland (play still stands regardless) and you'll notice that decision has had little to no influence on this line whatsoever. That's because, honestly, despite some suprisingly big games from starter Josh McCown, there's really little difference between he and Johnny Football.  The 2-6 Browns aren't going anywhere this year and the only reason McCown continues to be the starter is that HC Mike Pettine is fighting to keep his job. By far, Pettine's most impressive win in his two seasons here came on a Thursday night last year, against Cincinnati, where the Browns pulled out a shocking 24-3 upset on the road. It won't be the same result this time around, but the points are generous. I'm on the underdog.

When the Browns pulled off that upset last year, they actually found themselves tied for first place in the AFC North! To say a lot's changed since that time would be a mild understatement. Cleveland would win just one game the rest of the way in 2014 & is now 3-12 SU their L15 games. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has gone 12-2 SU its L14 regular season games (7-0 this year) and has established itself as one of the league's best teams. But upon closer inspection, things may not be so drastically different. Cleveland has lost a number of close games, both this year and last, while Cincy is a remarkably fortunate 7-0-1 SU in games decided by seven points or less since the start of last season. Four of their seven wins this year have been by a TD or less. So, let's pump the breaks - slightly - on all this "whole new Bengals" talk.

Obviously, Manziel has looked pretty terrible to this point in his NFL career. But making an impromptu start on a short week is actually a slight advantage when you consider the opponent has far less time to prepare. For what it's worth, the Browns did win the only game Manziel has started this year, 28-14 over Tennessee, back in Week 2.  Although the run game has struggled, the offensive line is still strong in terms of personnel and will be going up against a Bengals defense that yields 5.0 yards per carry, tied for the most in the league.  I've seen Cincinnati have to rally too many times this season to want to lay double digits w/ them, something they have not been asked to do even once in the last three seasons. 10* Cleveland

8* Under Browns/Bengals (8:25 ET):  These two division rivals have combined to go 11-3 Over on the season, which is a surprise, especially on the Cleveland side of things. The Browns are actually the top Over team in the league right now (7-1), but that's somewhat of a byproduct of consistently low totals.  A defense that has allowed 24 or more points six straight games certainly hasn't helped matters either, but fortunately Cincinnati comes into Thursday night off both their lowest scoring output & fewest yards gained in any game this season. Both of last year's meetings between these two stayed Under w/ just 27 and 30 total pts scored (both games were blowouts) and that's the way I see this one going as well. Take the Under.

The last three Thursday night games (ATL-NO, SEA-SF, MIA-NE) all have stayed Under their respective totals, though in two of the cases we have an O/U line north of 50 points. Still, the short week may mean something here and often cases it leads to sloppy offensive play. The last two weeks we've seen losing teams held to single digits on TNF.  Expecting a ton of offense out of Cleveland here w/ Johnny Manziel likely starting (play stands regardless) would be wishful thinking, even though in his lone start this year, the team produced 28 points. But one of those touchdowns came from the special teams (punt return) and two Manziel TD passes accounted for all but 48 of his total passing yardage!

The Browns played likely their worst game since Week 1 last week as they could manage only 20 points, despite forcing four turnovers, against the Cardinals. Yes, I'm including the 24-6 loss to the Rams the week prior in there as the defense actually played relatively well in that game, holding St. Louis to just 308 total yards in the lone Under for Cleveland all season. Part of the reason we've seen all these Overs for them is a high number of non-offensive TD's in their games, or turnovers setting up short fields. It's a rate that HAS to start going down. Fortunately for the Browns, Cincinnati didn't do much offensively last week either (just 6 pts through three quarters) as QB Andy Dalton played - by far - his worst game of the season. Bad games against Cleveland have been surprisingly commonplace for Dalton throughout his career as three of the four times he's been held under 100 yds passing have come against the Browns! 8* Under Browns/Bengals

10* Over Jets/Senators (7:35 ET):  Winnipeg played last night, and won, beating Toronto 4-2 on the road. They got off 34 shots, their most in regulation in any game all season, thanks in large part to a dominant third period where they outscored the Leafs 2-0.  Overall, Jets' games have been relatively high scoring this year as either they or their opponent has scored four goals in eight of their 12 games played. As for Ottawa, they are in off a surprising 2-1 OT win at Montreal Tuesday, but home games have generally been higher scoring for them, largely due to the fact they are allowing 4.2 goals per game in such affairs. Only one other team (Philadelphia) is allowing more shots per game than are the Sens currently (32.9). Take the Over.

In fact, Ottawa should probably thank it's "lucky stars" that they were able to beat the Habs as they were outshot 37-27 in that game, thus not really taking advantage of the fact they weren't going up against Carey Price. One area this team is due to improve, however, is on the power play as they've gone a woeful 2 for 32 w/ the man advantage since a 3 for 6 early season effort against Toronto. However, here at home, they've allowed at least four goals four straight times. They are also 36-20 Over against Western Conference competition. 

Ondrej Pavalec has posted terrible career numbers vs. Ottawa (4.81 GAA!), but since he started last night against Toronto, it will likely be Michael Hutchinson between the pipes here for Winnipeg.  I suppose you could consider that a negative as a far as the Over is concerned, but note there's been a real inconsistency to Hutchinson's overall play this year. Case in point; after turning in a 45-save effort vs. the Blackhawks on October 9th, he wound up getting yanked in the second period Sunday in Montreal as he allowed four goals on just nine shots!  On the other end of the ice, Ottawa has had its issues in goal w/ both Craig Anderson and Andrew Hammond, both of whom have save percentages below .880 here at home!  Last year's meeting here in the Nation's capital may have only been a 2-1 game, but saw 75 combined shots between the two sides. 10* Over Jets/Senators

8* Kansas State (7:30 ET):  Back on October 10th, I gave out Kansas State as SIGNATURE *10* ULTIMATE POWER selection as they hosted unbeaten TCU. At the time, the Wildcats were coming off a heartbreaking loss at Oklahoma State (another Big 12 team that still hasn't lost). Bill Snyder's team found itself up 35-18 at half against the Horned Frogs (as 9-pt underdogs!), but since that time little, if anything, has gone right in Manhattan.  They ended up losing that game, 52-45, and since then have been beaten down twice, first by Oklahoma (55-0 here at home!) and then the "smart money" lined up against them vs. Texas (lost 23-9). Having scored just nine points in two games certainly doesn't look promising as #6 Baylor comes to town, but fortunately the Bears now have issues of their own, namely breaking in a new starting QB.  Snyder has "circled the wagons" before and I'll take the points here.

Baylor has yet to play a single foe of consequence this season. That's why they currently find themselves outside of the top four in the initial College Football rankings. Now those rankings don't mean much right now, but the committee is reiterating my statement above about the Bears' weak schedule. They have yet to play a single team in the top half of the Big 12 power rankings, but that changes now w/ a brutal November slate that includes three road games, plus a visit from Oklahoma. Baylor has struggled mightily in the past in November road games, in fact, last year's win at Oklahoma was their first road win over a ranked opponent since HC Art Briles took over in 2008! While KSU is not ranked, the visitor has a history of struggling in this rivalry, dropping seven of eight meetings. 

Making matters harder on the Bears this year is that their starting QB Seth Russell has been lost for the year due to injury.  In steps redshirt sophomore Jarrett Stidham and while you'll hear the term "plug in and play" a lot in regards to this Baylor offense, the fact remains this is a tough spot even though Stidham has seen action in all seven games this year due to their blowout nature. But again, those were weak opponents and awful defenses he has faced to this point. Kansas State is not as bad as it's looked the L2 games and while they're likely not capable of pulling the upset, they certainly can stay within the number. 8* Kansas State

8* Philadelphia (8:05 ET):  At the start of the season, this line would have made sense, but I've had to downgrade Milwaukee due to a 1-3 SU/ATS start that's seen them get blown out twice. You'll recall I played against them in their first game, the result there being a 122-97 loss to a Knicks team that was perceived to be among the league's worst coming into the year.  This is a banged up Bucks team right now w/ several players missing time and really it shouldn't be too much of a surprise to see them regress in the early going as this was a team that improved its win total by 26 games last year while covering the spread over 55% of the time. Surprisingly, they went 23-9 ATS as favorites, but this year figures to find them laying points more often and in this case bigger numbers than we're accustomed to seeing. Take the points.

It took getting 13 points at home, but the 76ers did leave w/ the cash for the first time this season, Monday against Cleveland. They did actually lead in the game, by as many as 15 points in fact and by five at halftime. The far better team eventually took over, but Milwaukee isn't Cleveland and doesn't have LeBron James.  On the bright side for Philadelphia, top draft choice Jahlil Okafor scored 20+ points for the second time in three games.  The team should be able to take advantage of a Milwaukee defense that has been beyond atrocious, giving up 110.5 points per game to this point. The Sixers are on a very impressive 60-33 ATS run as road dogs in the +9.5 to +12 range. 

Milwaukee has been a banged up team to this point and while they're getting healthier (Jabari Parker is back), I still don't like them in this price range. They only got by Brooklyn, who is in contention to be the league's second worst team (admittedly, ahead of the Sixers), by seven points Monday. Now they did sweep Philly last year (4-0) and are 6-1 SU/ATS the past seven meetings overall. But the Bucks are just 18-33 ATS as home favorites in that same 9.5 to 12 pt range. With a relatively lower total, points should be at somewhat of a premium here, making grabbing the big number the way to go. 8* Philadelphia

10* Over Blues/Blackhawks (8:05 ET):  The scoring has picked up in recent days for defending Stanley Cup champion Chicago, who is coming off B2B four-goal efforts against Minnesota (lost) and Los Angeles (won). Perhaps that shouldn't come as much of a surprise considering they'd been held to just one goal in regulation their previous three games and have now returned home where they typically do a much better job of putting the puck on net. Furthermore, the Under had gone 7-0-3 in their first 10 games, so some simple regression was in order as well. The Blackhawks have averaged a phenomenal 37.5 shots per game vs. division opponents thus far, so I look for the Over to come through again tonight vs. St. Louis.

The Blues are coming off a string of Unders themselves and were shut out last night at home by the Kings.  The Under is now 5-0-1 their last six games, a streak that is certainly due to turn given they had gone Over in four straight previously.  Like Chicago, St. Louis has little difficult putting the puck on net. They average 31.6 shots per game, including 33.3 on the road (3.0 goals per game).  In fact, both teams rank in the top eight in the league in # of shots per game.  But they've each been somewhat undone by low shooting percentages (both under 8.0 percent), which is due to correct itself.  The Blues' 29th ranked power play (9.5 percent) is also due to pick it up. They are 15-9 Over the L3 seasons when playing in the second game of back to backs.

Three of the five matchups between these two last year saw at least five total goals scored. The Over is 20-12 in Blackhawks' home games when the total is 5.0.  St. Louis matched a season low w/ only 24 shots last night and was 0 for 4 w/ the man advantage, so I'd expect a stronger offensive effort from them this evening. With this being the second game of a back to back, it's almost a lock we'll have a different goaltender in net for the Blues as Brian Elliot gets called into duty. Unfortunately for Blues' fans, he has just a .895 save percentage his last four starts. Chicago though has allowed a total of eight goals in its two division games.  10* Over Blues/Blackhawks

10* Ohio (8:00 ET): After the top two teams in the West played last night, we now turn to the MAC's East and these just may be the top two teams in this division. If you agree w/ that assertion, then it certainly seems curious that the line would be this high as I find it hard to believe that first place Bowling Green is considered to be three touchdowns better than Ohio, even on its home field.  Perhaps it has something to do w/ the visiting Bobcats coming off B2B outright losses to Western Michigan and Buffalo where they were blown out both times.  But this is a team that opened 5-1 SU w/ its only loss coming by a field goal at Minnesota.  I don't think Frank Solich's team is anywhere close to as bad as they've looked the last two games and w/ this number being bet up (considerably!), I'm taking the points.

Truth be told, I have an outstanding wager on Ohio Over their season win total of 5.0. With home games remaining against both Kent State and Ball State, I still feel very confident that particular ticket will cash. However, the last two games have gone badly w/ them losing to WMU and Buffalo by a combined score of 90-31. Yet, the 41-17 defeat at the hands of Buffalo was as misleading a final as you'll ever see considering the Bobcats had the total yards edge (422-373), only to be undone by four turnovers, two of them interceptions that were returned for touchdowns. It was more of the same LY vs. Bowling Green where they outgained the Falcons 513-355 (29-19 in first downs!). This is actually a triple revenge spot for Solich's charges. Simply put, the market has shifted too far against a pretty good team.

Bowling Green is coming off three consecutive blowout victories, which is why their stock is so high right now. But all three opponents are at the bottom of the MAC & you'll recall from yday's analysis that not too much should be read into results against such teams. A leaky Falcons defense appears cured, but only because they just faced Akron & Kent, both of whom rank outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency. BG themselves rank very high (3rd!) nationally in that department, but you can expect this game to be much closer than expected as the favorites have yet to beat a single team that rates better than average all season.  10* Ohio

10* LA Lakers (10:35 ET):  Coming into the year, the fact that Kobe Bryant and the Lakers are terrible seemed to be lost on no one but the guilty party itself, but the reality seems to becoming more and more apparent "in-house" after a dreadful 0-3 SU/ATS start. Said Bryant after a dreadful 3 of 15 shooting performance against the Mavs on Sunday, "I freaking suck." I'm inclined to agree w/ that assessment, however, I do believe the team itself is a good value tonight as it's actually not being asked to lay points against a Denver side that simply isn't much better. Sure, the Nuggets are perfect against the spread as a road favorite of three points or less the last two seasons, but it's a small sample size (5-0 ATS) that's due to regress as is the team's three-game SU/ATS win streak here in LA against the Lakers.

With both teams having lost to Minnesota already this season, right now you would have to project these two to be the worst teams in the Western Conference. The fact that Denver checks in as a road favorite seems to be an overreaction to the Lakers.  After opening the season w/ a surprising 20-point win in Houston (a team that also struggled out of the gate), the Nuggets have been blown out in B2B games, losing by a total of 41 points to the T'wolves and Thunder. This is a total rebuild in the Rocky Mountains and it certainly doesn't help that the team looks like it will be down several contributors for tonight's matchup. Wilson Chandler and Jusuf Nurkic have yet to take the court this season and Joffrey Lauvergne & Nikola Jokic are both dealing with back injuries. If none of those names sound familiar to you, then you probably gain a sense of what a sorry state this franchise is in right now. Will Barton (who?) shared the team-lead in scoring in Sunday's loss.  Rookie Emmanuel Mudiay (#7 overall DC) will likely lead the league in turnovers at his current pace.

As bad as Bryant has been, he is at least capable of breaking out for a good game or two. I believe there to be far more talent on this Lakers' roster than that of the Nuggets. Bryant himself may very well end up holding it back, but I can see him having a good game here in what could be a high-scoring, wide open game w/ little defense played on either side.  Denver was a dreadful road team last season (11-30 SU), so the Lakers should be given more credit for having the homecourt edge. 10* LA Lakers

8* Under Northern Illinois/Toledo (8:00 ET):  This matchup typically determines the winner of the MAC West and more often than not it has been Northern Illinois winning and going on to Detroit to play for the Conference Championship.  In fact, the Huskies have beaten the Rockets five years in a row, including twice here at the Glass Bowl after losing 17 of their previous 18 visits. Last year, in DeKalb, was a three-point game (with Toledo covering as underdogs) which was the third time in the last four years the matchup has been decided by one score. In a drastic turn of events, Toledo (unbeaten both SU and ATS) is favored this year. The likelihood of the Rockets winning on their home turf is strong, but that perception also has me unwilling to lay the points. Therefore, I turn to the total instead.  Take the Under.

The last three meetings have all stayed Under the total with a tight range of 52 to 55 total points scored.  Although higher than those totals, I think that when most look at the O/U line for this matchup, it will appear to be low. After all, both are averaging right around 37 points per game.  Toledo has tallied an impressive 114 points the last two games while NIU has topped 45 pts in three straight.  However, all of those games came against the dregs of the MAC, teams that generally don't play much, if any, defense. Both played Eastern Michigan, who is 127th (out of 128) in total defense nationally.  The other three opponents - Miami, Ball State and UMass - all rank 116th or lower.  So what I'm saying here is don't put too much stock in the respective recent offensive performances. 

Toledo has an outstanding defense, one that ranks in the top 20 nationally in yards allowed as well as 24th in efficiency. They allow just 16.3 PPG, 14.2 here at home, and opened the year by staying Under in each of their first five contests.  They've allowed 12 pts or less four times, one of those coming against Arkansas on the road!  Don't put too much on the Rockets' defense for allowing a season-high 35 points to UMass two Saturdays ago as three of the Minutemen's four touchdown drives were set up by turnovers. In the second half, UT allowed just one TD and it came late. As for NIU, they've been held to less than 20 points in three of four road games. Granted, two were against Ohio State and Boston College, but the other was by a Central Michigan team that barely cracks the top 50 in efficiency. The Huskies' defense, however, travels well as it allows just 19.5 PPG w/ the Under going 3-1 in those four games!  8* Under Northern Illinois/Toledo

10* Over Lightning/Red Wings (7:35 ET): These two both won their last time out, but have been somewhat disappointing nonetheless. Detroit had actually lost six of seven games before a much-needed 5-3 victory over Ottawa on Saturday, the second leg of a home and home vs. the Senators. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, snapped a four-game losing streak with a 4-3 win over Carolina. So that's an Over that the respective sides are each coming off of here and once again I expect plenty of goals in this playoff rematch from last year. It was a 3-1 Red Wings victory earlier in the year here in the Motor City, but since then Detroit has given up multiple goals in every game! That should help remedy Tampa Bay's surprising offensive ills as I'm on the Over.

The Lightning had, in fact, been held to just two goals total during a four-game slide prior to Sunday's victory.  This was obviously supposed to be one of the highest scoring teams in the league, but instead we've seen the Lightning held to averages of only 2.5 goals on 27.5 shots per game. The biggest positive coming out of Sunday's win in Carolina was the Tyler Johnson finally scored (1st goal of the season!). You'll recall it actually took him 15 games to find the back of the net last season, but in the end he wound up w/ 29 goals. The team led the league in goals per game (3.16) as well. I think it's only a matter of time before we see Tampa Bay break out offensively.  Detroit is allowing 32.6 shots per game, by the way.

Right now, the Red Wings are generating the fewest number of shots per game in the entire league (25.2). This is obviously concerning given that they too were a top 10 offense in terms of goals per game a year ago.  However, they did score a season-high five goals Saturday night and historically speaking you have to take advantage of when the total is only 5.0 here at Joe Louis Arena as the Over is 20-9 the L3 seasons when that's the case.  There were only 45 shots - total - generated in these teams' prior matchup this season. I expect far more tonight as we get the pair of offenses we expected to see prior to the start of the season. 10* Over Lightning/Red Wings

8* Indiana (7:35 ET):  Before the year started, I projected the 8-seed in the Eastern Conference to be a three-horse race between Central Division rivals Milwaukee (who made the playoffs last year), Indiana and Detroit.  Early returns have the Pistons currently sitting in the "pole position" as they are 3-0 SU (and ATS) while their two rivals both opened 0-3 SU/ATS. The Bucks won last night though and now I feel it's time for the Pacers to get out of the box as they find themselves catching a generous number this evening in the Motor City. This will be the first time this season that Detroit is being asked to lay points, a role that has been unkind to them previously, especially here at home where they've gone just 5-14 ATS in the -3.5 to -6 range the past two seasons. I'm taking the points here.

Indiana had played somewhat of a tough schedule to open the season as they had to play three good teams in four-day span.  They were absolutely hammered Halloween night, at home, by Utah as the final score there was 97-76. Rebounding and shooting have been the two primary issues thus far for the Pacers, but it's hard to imagine they'll play a worse game than what we saw Saturday where they scored just 27 points in the second half. This is a different Indiana team than past years w/ a remade roster and approach.  Monta Ellis has struggled in the early going, but should get better. They should also cut down on the number of turnovers (44 last 2 games) as 24 of them led to 30 Utah points.  I just don't think this team is as bad as its looked in the early going.

Nor do I think Detroit is as good as its looked in its first three games. They've actually been outshot in every game this season, so despite the nice-looking defensive numbers, the offense still needs a lot of work.  Two of the team's wins have been by five points or less, including a 98-94 overtime victory over Chicago on Friday. Overall, the Pistons are shooting just 38.7 percent from the floor, which is pretty bad, as is their 67 percent free throw shooting.  I'll call for a little progression/regression to the mean Tuesday night as the disappointing team gets the cash at the expense of its surprising counterpart. 8* Indiana

9* Boston (7:05 ET): Both of these teams have found surprising success in the early going this season, yet the Bruins have struggled at home and the Stars lost last night. But, overall, I give the edge to the former as they've won four straight and six of seven including a 3-1 win at always dangerous Tampa Bay Halloween night.  Dallas, meanwhile, became just the second team to fall to Toronto this season w/ a bad 4-1 loss yday. The Stars have never been too keen about playing in the second night of back to backs, a role that has somehow escaped them to this point of the season, but one that they are 9-16 SU in nonetheless the past two seasons. Boston has the offense to match Dallas in this one; in fact they've been better on that end of the ice so far.

Just to give you an idea of how ugly it had been for the Bruins at home, they won their last time out here at TD North Bank Garden, 6-0 over Arizona, yet still are being outscored here 4.2 to 3.4 on a per game basis. They opened the year w/ three consecutive losses on home ice where they allowed 16 goals in the process! But since that time, there has been a drastic turnaround and the team not only leads the league in goals per game (3.9) but also on the power play (35.3 percent).  However, the real key to the turnaround has been the play of Tuukka Rask between the pipes as he's stopped all but one of the 56 shots he's seen his last two starts.  History likes his chances tonight as Rask owns a career 1.88 goals against average vs. the Stars and he made 36 saves in LY's lone appearance against them.

It was actually a pretty tough loss taken by Dallas last night in Toronto as they finished w/ a 44-26 edge in shots yet came out on the wrong end of a 4-1 decision.  The loss snapped what had been a wonderful stretch for the first place Stars, who had won eight of their previous nine games. However, the situation is not in their favor at all this evening, plus they have an opponent that can match, if not exceed, their own firepower. The road team won both matchups last year between these two, but not here. 9* Boston

8* Memphis (10:35 ET): Golden State has certainly picked up from where it left off last year as the defending NBA Champs have opened 3-0 SU/ATS with all three victories coming by double digits. Two were against New Orleans and the other at Houston, two teams that are combined 0-6 SU/ATS right now. That's certainly worth noting as is the fact that Steph Curry has been carrying the load with 39.3 points per game, including 53 Saturday night against the Pelicans.  He was a ridiculous 17 of 27 from the field in that game, 8 of 14 from three-point range, so a dropoff here is all but inevitable. I think the Grizzlies will be the Warriors' toughest test to date and come into Monday night's matchup undervalued. Take the points.

Houston and New Orleans were two of the Western Conference teams the Warriors ousted on their way to the NBA Finals. Memphis was the other and of the three gave Golden State their toughest test. They beat them twice, including an upset as 10-pt dogs here at Oracle Arena. That was one of just THREE home losses for the Warriors in their last 50 games here! The loss of Mike Conley really hurt the Grizzlies in that particular series and he led the team in scoring w/ 22 points in Saturday's win over Brooklyn. It was an ugly start to the season for the Grizz as they got blown out at home by Cleveland, but they've responded w/ B2B victories by a combined 19 points. This is the first time they are getting points this season.

Had Memphis been more competitive against the Cavaliers, then I don't think this line would be nearly as high. It was just one game and it should be pointed out that the Grizzlies were blown out at home by the Cavaliers last year as well, so it may simply be a case of "bad matchup."  Golden State covered an impressive 57.6 percent of their games en route to last year's NBA title (tied for 3rd best ATS record in the league), so at some point there HAS to be some "market correction," right?  I'll call for the linesmakers to "catch up with them" here as defensively there were some major issues against the Pelicans that got lost in the impressive offensive performance from Curry.  8* Memphis

9* Los Angeles (8:35 ET): Yes, I'm going against the Stanley Cup Champs yet again.  It's worked out for me in their last two games as they've lost to both the Jets and Wild on the road. After scoring just one regulation goal in a three-game span (two 1-0 OT wins!), the Blackhawks did break out for four goals Friday in Minnesota, but it wasn't enough as they allowed a season-high five. Now, in comes a red-hot Kings team that has won seven in a row and has outscored opponents by an average of 3.7 to 1.3 in road games. As per usual, Los Angeles ranks at or near the top of the league in terms of possession numbers. They're 1st in Fenwick and 2nd in Corsi.  I'm going with the hotter team in this one.

The Kings actually opened the season w/ three straight losses, but since then they've have been completely dominant w/ goaltender Jonathan Quick leading the way. Quick has allowed just eight goals in his last six starts, posting a 1.31 goals against average and .955 save percentage. Three of those goals actually came in the team's last game, an overtime win over Nashville where LA was actually outshot.  But after five straight wins in regulation, the team was probably "due" for a close one. But the good news is that the Kings are 30-24 after scoring four or more goals their previous game. Quick and the Kings have struggled in the past in the regular season vs. Chicago, but there is no denying that of the two teams, they're the ones playing better right now.

As I said earlier, Chicago actually went three games w/ scoring just one regulation goal. They'd been held to one goal or less in five of seven games prior to Friday's 5-4 loss where backup Scott Darling really struggled. Corey Crawford is likely to be back between the pipes tonight for a Blackhawks team that has actually had the edge in shots more often than not this year, but the offense remains a concern, even here at the "Madhouse on Madison" where they've averaged just 2.5 goals per game. They've been fortunate to allow just 1.2 gpg here in the Windy City, which is probably unsustainable.  9* Los Angeles

10* Indianapolis (8:30 ET):  If not for being in a hideous division (AFC South), the Colts would be in real trouble. While they're 3-0  SU (1-2 ATS) vs. AFC South opposition, Indy has yet to win a single game outside of the division, going 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS. The way things are going, it is looking increasingly likely that we could have yet another .500 or worse division winner this year. Of course, that's a position that Carolina is all too familiar with, having won the NFC South w/ a 7-8-1 record last season. Shockingly, the 6-0 Panthers can match that win total w/ another win tonight, but because of the respective records here, they are caught laying what I feel is too many points in this Monday night matchup.  Take the points.

A flawed roster and multiple injuries to QB Andrew Luck are literally and figuratively hurting the Colts right now. After "backdooring" the Patriots two weeks ago (ATS win for me!), it appeared they might have turned a slight corner, but shockingly they were shut out in the 1H for the third time this season LW at home by New Orleans. Some "garbage time" effort by Luck led to a misleading final, but the fact remains this is the only team in the league NOT to have owned the edge in total yards in a single game this year. However, all the disappointing efforts have resulted to an inflated line here.  Consider that the preseason line for this matchup had the Colts as a one-point FAVORITE.  That's quite the swing in perception.

Indy has been a dog only twice this season, but they've covered both times (only two ATS wins).  Meanwhile, this will be just the second time that Carolina has been asked to lay more than a field goal this season. The only other instance was against New Orleans w/o Drew Brees and they failed to cover that game, almost losing outright.  They've been playing well, but I don't think they're necessarily built to cover spreads such as this.  The offense ranks just 22nd in the league in yards per game (344.2) and defensively I feel Luck can have success against this secondary.  QB Cam Newton has curiously drawn some MVP consideration despite actually posting a season-low in completion percentage (55.8 percent). Provided that the Colts defense can step up and limit the Panthers' run game, they should have no problem staying in this one. Andrew Luck has NEVER lost three straight games in his career.  10* Indianapolis

8* Under Spurs/Knicks (7:35 ET):  The Knicks are a surprising 2-1 and have topped 100 pts in every game so far, which had led to a 3-0 Over mark as well. Tonight, they host a San Antonio team that finds itself in the second game of back to backs after winning 95-87 in Boston yday. It was the Spurs' second consecutive game holding an Eastern Conference foe below 90 points.  These teams have combined to go Over the total in all four matchups the last two seasons, but it's looking like we have more than just a little bit of line value here as the O/U lines for LY's two matchups were just 190.5 and 194.5 respectively. One of those went to overtime as well.  I'm on the Under here.

Strangely, New York has been getting the job done despite the absence of starting point guard Aaron Afflalo. They haven't necessarily shot the ball "lights out" in any one game w/ their highest overall field goal percentage being 47.7 percent, their last time out, which resulted in a 117-110 victory at Washington. Carmelo Anthony was the real standout there, scoring 37 points on 11 of 18 shooting, including 4 of 5 from three-point range. He also went 11 of 12 from the free throw line.  A repeat performance here is unlikely. No other player scored more than 14 points against the Wizards. Following an Over streak of three consecutive games, the Knicks are 15-7 Under the previous two seasons.

In the last two games, San Antonio has allowed just 81 points per game on 37.7 percent shooting.  That's obviously a difficult pace to maintain. But, thankfully, we have quite the margin for error here.  The Spurs are 23-16 Under when playing in the second of back to back games the L2 seasons and even though the Knicks have allowed an average of 111 PPG the L2 games, I think we'll see the San Antonio offense struggle a little bit w/o rest.  You also never know how Greg Popovich will play this spot as his veteran players like Tim Duncan may very well see limited action.  The team has actually struggled in the past here at MSG, losing here three of the past four seasons. Also, don't forget Anthony will likely face a tough assignment being guarded by Kawhi Leonard. 8* Under Spurs/Knicks

10* Over Cavs/Sixers (7:05 ET):  Cleveland came up just short in an Over play I had their last game, versus Miami. They have now gone Under in all three games this year after leading the league in that department in 2014-15.  However, offensively they should feel very little resistance tonight against lowly Philadelphia, who has been blown out in both games to this point. All three meetings between these two last year stayed Under, but we've got a low number tonight.  After shooting poorly from three-point range (6 for 21!) against the Heat, I expect a much better performance from distance here from the Cavaliers, who were one of the league's better teams in that department last season. Take the Over.

Now, for this one to go Over the total, we will need Philadelphia to do something offensively. Improving upon their dreadful showing vs. Utah on Friday is paramount. There, the Sixers finished w/ only 71 points (a league low so far) on 30.2 percent shooting.  The fact that performance came here at home makes it all the more embarrassing. The starting five combined for just 41 points on 11 of 43 shooting.  Five players did finish w/ 10+ points, but none had more than 12! As abysmal as that may be, there's only one way a team can go from there and it's obviously up.  Playing w/ exactly two days rest, the 76ers are 12-5 Over the previous two seasons.

Defensively, they gave up 112 points in the season opener, to Boston, who doesn't have nearly the offensive firepower that Cleveland possesses. LeBron James hasn't even really had to do much thus far, though he did tally a very efficient 29 points in Friday's win over Miami.  Kevin Love has looked very good as well and even w/ both Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert injured, this year's team looks a lot deeper than the one that made it to the Finals a year ago.  Like Philadelphia, Cleveland has been an Over team when taking the floor w/ exactly two days rest, going 17-8 in that situation. Cavs' opponents are barely even shooting 40 percent to this point and as bad as the Sixers are, they should be able to top that benchmark tonight, which will help push this one Over the total. 10* Over Cavs/Sixers

8* Denver (8:30 ET):  How rare is it to find Peyton Manning as a home dog? It's happened only once during his tenure w/ the Broncos, all the way back in 2012, just his second home game w/ the team. It was an even rarer occurrence during his time with the Colts and what makes tonight's situation all the more eye-popping is that Denver is not only unbeaten (6-0), but off a bye as well. They are 19-2 SU at home the L3 years and have the #1 ranked defense in the league. That all only serves to illustrate just how much respect the Packers have in the marketplace currently, and while I wasn't surprised at all to see GB bet to the role of favoritism here, it's an overreaction based on the perception that the Packers are the "better" unbeaten team.  Take the points.

Green Bay, like Denver, is an outstanding home team. We're all aware of Aaron Rodgers' eye-popping numbers at Lambeau Field, but on the road this team "can be had."  Over the last three seasons, they are just 10-9 SU away from home, 9-9-1 against the spread.  So far, the Packers have been asked to play only two road games in 2015 and those games came at Chicago and San Francisco, two of the worst teams in the league.  They struggled a bit as well both times. In Wk 1 vs. the Bears, the defense allowed what was a season-high (until the last game) 402 total yards. In San Francisco, they scored just 17 points. Also, remember that while they beat San Diego two weeks ago, the Packers' defense (which is  #1 in the league in scoring) gave up nearly 500 yards passing.  Peyton Manning may not be what he once was, but he should be able to take advantage. 

Green Bay's defense may allow the fewest points per game in the league, but the Broncos are allowing the fewest yards (281 per game) and I have them rated as the better unit overall. For the record, they are also just behind the Packers in terms of PPG allowed (16.8 to 17.0).  Consider that Denver's defensive numbers would be even better and they'd lead the league in points allowed if not for three pick six's from Manning. Manning may not be in Aaron Rodgers' class any longer, but overall this is a far more even matchup than how it's being perceived.  8* Denver

10* Over Jets/Canadiens (7:05 ET): Montreal's first losing streak of the season (two games) didn't last long as they bounced back Friday w/ a 6-2 rout of Calgary, which was actually their third straight win w/ at least five goals. Including their two losses, the Habs have now gone Over in five straight.  After making the always difficult three-game trek through Western Canada, they return home to face a Winnipeg team that had to play last night and will be embarking on at three-game Canadian road trip themselves here. Last night saw them win at lowly Columbus, 3-2, despite just 21 shots on net. I anticipate this being a high-scoring affair, however, as both clubs are in the top five in goals per game, so it's a real shocker to find the total open at 5.0 here.

Without question, the Canadiens have been the league's best team to this point. Their 20 points are a league-high as is their +22 goal differential, which is even more impressive.  However, one thing I find particularly interesting is that save for just three times, they've been outshot every game, including six straight!  However, that hasn't stopped them from averaging a healthy 3.7 goals per game this year (2nd in NHL), including 4.4 the last five.  The power play has been especially efficient of late, scoring six times in its last 14 chances.  Tonight, it is likely that the Habs will face Michael Hutchinson, who is unbeaten w/ a 1.75 goals against average. But this will certainly be Hutchinson's toughest matchup to date.

Of course, not only is Montreal second in the league in terms of goals per game, they are third in goals allowed, thanks to reigning Hart Trophy winner Carey Price. Price was given the night off vs. Calgary, so he is all but assured of being between the pipes here. However, as alluded to earlier, Price & the Habs have gotten away w/ giving up a high volume of shots.  That includes a game vs. Toronto where they allowed 52!  The Jets have allowed a high # of shots as well (32.5 per game), so there should definitely be plenty of chances for both sides to score in this one. 10* Over Jets/Canadiens

10* Hamilton (1:00 ET):  This game is for first place in the East Division, which is huge because the division winner gets a first round bye come playoff time.  Both Hamilton and Ottawa already have the "x" next to their names in the standings, signifying they've clinched a playoff berth, but while they own matching 10-6 SU records, that's misleading in the sense that the Ti-Cats have a league-leading +161 point differential, but the Redblacks have actually been outscored by the opposition this season! Half of Ottawa's wins have come by four points or less, so their record could certainly be worse. These teams have not played yet this season, but will close the regular season w/ a home and home. Here at Tim Horton's Field, it's advantage Hamilton.

At one point, Hamilton was 10-0 SU at Tim Horton's Field since it opened for business in the middle of last season. But, shockingly, they've since dropped three of four home games. The problem here is obviously the loss of QB Zach Collaros as the team's overall play has declined greatly since he was injured and last week brought their most humiliating defeat of the 2015 campaign, 40-13 at B.C. But they had won B2B games prior to that w/ the defense allowing only 26 total points. The three-game home losing streak was made up entirely of close games, two of them coming to Calgary and Edmonton. They've since blown out Saskatchewan here, 30-15, as 8.5-point chalk.  Given the home record, this line is still a bargain on the Ti-Cats, who are outscoring teams by 15.9 PPG this year when priced as a home favorite. They are also 4-1 SU/ATS off a loss.

Momentum is often overrated, so when you hear Ottawa has it, it's noise you should largely ignore. Yes, they've won six of eight overall, but four of those wins came at the expense of Winnipeg and Saskatchewan, who are a combined 7-26 straight up.  But the biggest reason to be leery of the Redblacks right now is a knee injury suffered by QB Henry Burris last week vs. the Bombers. I would readily concede that the Redblacks would have a major edge at the pivot position if Burris were 100 percent. But he's not and has been held out of practice this week, leaving his playing status for this game very much up in the air.  It's going to be an angry group of Ti-Cats after last week's loss and I look for them to bounce back. 10* Hamilton

8* NY Giants (1:00 ET):  It seems like the better team is getting points in this one, no? Granted, I wouldn't expect the Giants to be favored here at the Mercedes Benz Superdome, but New Orleans' homefield advantage really is no longer what it once was. In fact, they were on an 0-7 ATS run here at the Superdome at one point before squeaking by a Cowboys team that was w/o Tony Romo, in overtime. Then, in another prime time affair, they benefited from a favorable turnover margin (+3) vs. Atlanta that led to a final score (31-21) that really wasn't indicative of how the game was played (Falcons had edge in total yards). The Colts just aren't very good right now, so I don't read much into last week's win either. Clearly, I am not buying any kind of Saints' renaissance here.  Take the points. 

The Giants are a bit of a tough team to get a beat on. They have had the lead in every game, yet only outgained one opponent (San Francisco) all year. But I liked them at the start of the season to win the division (still do!) and this is the kind of game they need to win to justify that pick.  Last week wasn't the prettiest performance, but the G-Men scored touchdowns on offense, defense and special teams en route to a 27-20 win over the Cowboys.  Though the total yardage battle clearly hasn't always gone their way, that somewhat undersells how the Giants have actually performed. They had double digit leads in the 4th quarter vs. both Dallas (in Wk 1) and Atlanta. Washington rolled up some garbage yards against them. They've gone 2-1 ATS as dogs so far, all those games coming on the road, one of them an outright win at Buffalo. Eli Manning (who for some reason tends to play better on the road) is clearly more comfortable in his second year in Ben McAdoo's offense while on defense, the front seven has been better than expected this year.

Critics of the Giants will point toward the team's positive turnover ratio. But the same criticism can be levied on the Saints, who are +5 in that department the L2 games. This will be just the third time New Orleans has been a favorite this season; they were fortunate to cover (because of OT) vs. Dallas and lost outright here to Tampa Bay.  On defense, this team is not healthy at all.  That's a defense that entered last week ranked dead last in yards allowed.  The Giants have a positive scoring differential this season, the Saints do not.  8* NY Giants

10* Under Cardinals/Browns (1:00 ET): While the woefully unprepared Johnny Manziel starting for Cleveland would have made this play all the more ideal, I'm on the Under regardless as these teams have shocked me w/ the number of times they've each gone Over this season.  But lately, things have been trending in the other direction.  Arizona had gone Over in each of their first five games before Unders came through against a pair of other AFC North teams, Pittsburgh & Baltimore.  Meanwhile, Cleveland had actually gone Over in each of its first six games before LW's Under vs. St. Louis (scored only six points). This will be the highest total for any Browns' game so far this season.  Take the Under.

This isn't exactly an ideal spot for the visiting Cardinals. Yes, they're clearly the better team on paper, but they'll be working on a short week, with a bye on deck, and the early start time likely does them no favors here.  It was an early start time where I first played the Under w/ the Cardinals as they traveled to Pittsburgh and lost 25-13 two weeks ago.  On Monday night, their defense seemingly had "taken care of business," holding the Ravens to just over 200 total yards before a blocked punt set up a late touchdown and then a final Baltimore drive went 67 yards in a failed attempt to tie the game. Cleveland's offense is averaging just 21 points per game, so I don't worry here about Arizona's defense.  Rather it is the offense, which could be w/o WR John Brown (questionable), that I worry about.

There is a unifying element w/ these two teams' string of Overs, that being a bevy of non-offensive touchdowns.  In two of the Cardinals' wins, they have scored multiple non-offensive touchdowns. Six Lions' turnovers set up a number of easy scores in that game. With the Browns, their game vs. Denver wouldn't have gone Over if not for a defensive score by both sides. Last week's 24-6 loss to the Rams would have been even lower scoring if not for an early fumble return. The Browns' defense actually did its job, allowing only 305 total yards. Here, their secondary is likely to be back at full strength. But the problem remains an offense that will be even more limited than usual here due to the shoulder injury to QB Josh McCown. His main weapon is TE Gary Barnidge, but he could struggle here, not just because of the McCown injury but also due to a Cardinals defense that's holding opposing tight ends to just 40.4 YPG.  10* Under Cardinals/Browns

10* Baltimore (1:00 ET):  This is a battle of arguably the two most disappointing teams in the AFC. The Chargers are 2-5 and the Ravens 1-6, but one of those records is misleading. That would be the latter one as Baltimore isn't bad per se, but rather unlucky. They are the first team in league history to open a season w/ seven straight games decided by eight points or less, yet have only won one time and that was a somewhat fortuitous result on a Thursday night at Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, San Diego is just plain bad. Their offensive line is in shambles, making life very difficult for QB Philip Rivers. Furthermore, the defense has allowed 24 or more points in every game this season, becoming just the third team over the last 25 seasons to do that in the first seven games! Lay the points.

It's not just the unusually poor luck in close games that gives one hope the Ravens can turn things around; six of their final nine games are at home where they've gone 51-17 straight up during the tenure of John Harbaugh. Their next three games are all here at M&T Bank Stadium against opponents who are a combined 7-13 straight up. I was on this team Monday night as they pulled out their first ATS win of the year at Arizona. While salty Cardinals backers might be tempted to label that one as a "backdoor cover," note Baltimore was in position to actually tie the game before QB Joe Flacco threw an INT in the end zone. Both defenses here aren't very good, but the Chargers are clearly worse as they allow a league worst 6.5 yards per play. Look for Flacco to take advantage.

Baltimore might be working on a short week, but the spot for San Diego is worse as it's the dreaded early start time for a West Coast team.  Twice this season, the Chargers played in a 1:00 ET start and both times they failed to cover, including an ugly 31-14 loss at Minnesota in Wk 3.  However, they'll get no sympathy from the Ravens, who have already had to head West four times this season.  Things are looking really ugly in San Diego currently w/ rumors of the team relocating for LA leaving them w/ no real homefield advantage. Last week was an embarrassment as they trailed Oakland 30-3 at home in the first half before garbage time scoring made the game appear closer than it actually was. Now a bad defense is banged up w/ as many as four starters possibly missing this game including their top DB (Eric Weddle).  10* Baltimore

10* Tennessee (1:00 ET):  Like everyone else, I waited to see what the Titans' QB situation would be this week (had to - no line!) and it's Zach Mettenberger starting for a second straight game in place of the injured Marcus Mariota.  Obviously, it would have been more ideal to have the rookie signal caller under center, but that being said I'm really surprised to see the horrible Texans getting this much respect from the linesmakers. Mettenberger isn't a legitimate starter in this league, but the Houston QB situation is really no better w/ Brian Hoyer left to man the battle station in the wake of Ryan Mallett's release. The Texans "laydown" effort LW at Miami was as bad a performance by any team I've seen all season. Take the points.

Mallett's release came about because he missed the team's plane to Miami. While physically his teammates may have left him behind, you got the sense that they stayed back at home w/ him as they found themselves down 41-0 at halftime and after seven drives per side, the total yardage was an unfathomable 399-3 in the Dolphins' favor! Ugly starts are nothing new for the Texans, who have now found themselves down by 21 or more points in the first half in three of their six games!  If being stuck w/ Hoyer at QB wasn't bad enough, Houston is now also w/o RB Arian Foster for the remainder of the season as he tore his ACL last week on the game's final drive. The Texans' record w/o Foster is a miserable 3-15 straight up. Not to "pile on," but on the defensive side of the ball JJ Watt isn't 100 percent.

The Titans might only be 3-19 SU the L2 seasons, but I view them as an improved team in 2015 despite the five straight losses. They outgained four of their first five opponents and easily could have (and should have) beaten Atlanta last week at home.  It was an ugly 10-7 loss instead and while the offense continues to struggle, they'll be going against a terrible defense this week. Houston is allowing 28.4 points and 370.9 yards per game so far and thus I expect the Titans to have their best offensive effort since beating Tampa Bay 42-17 in Week 1.  The Texans are 6-2 SU/7-1 ATS the L4 years in this AFC South rivalry, a run "due" to correct itself. I would not be surprised at all to see Tennessee win this game outright. 10* Tennessee

8* Washington State (10:30 ET):  Preseason, Stanford was a team that I was endorsing to make it to the four-team playoff. Ironically though, I played against the Cardinal in their opening game and they lost - outright (surprising!) - at Northwestern, 16-6 (were laying double digits). Since then, David Shaw's team has looked about as strong as any in the country, rolling to six straight wins and covers w/ the closest margin of victory being 10 points. They do figure to be favored in all of their remaining contests w/ the regular season finale vs. Notre Dame looming large as far as potential playoff implications go. However, if there's one spot where I can see them possibly "slipping up," it is here in Pullman in a late night, Halloween affair. I'll be taking the points w/ Washington State.

The Cougars, I thought, might be a surprise team in their own right this season. Now, clearly, I didn't think they were going to win the Pac 12, but improvement was likely from LY's disappointing 3-9 SU campaign.  However, under Mike Leach, they've improved even more than I had anticipated, to the point that they now actually control their own destiny in the North Division! They too suffered an embarrassing loss in the season opener (to an FCS school, Portland State), but since then have only been beaten by Cal and it was close, 34-28, on the road. They've gone into Autzen and beaten Oregon and just won on the road at Arizona last week as well. This is an underdog w/ plenty of offensive firepower (36.4 PPG) & I like that Leach has settled down a little bit on his pass-happy ratio, even though Wazzu still leads the country in # of pass attempts by a wide margin. This is a much better team than the one Stanford has beaten seven straight times by an average of 27 points per game.

Stanford's defense is pretty good, but it's not as good as previous years, which is evident by the fact they rank just 50th in terms of efficiency. I think that you can pass the ball effectively against this secondary and that is obviously what Wazzu will be looking to do. No Pac 12 QB has thrown for more yards this season than has WSU's Luke Falk. Eight Cougars' players average at least three receptions per game, making them an incredibly difficult team to defend.  While Washington State is 4-0 ATS this year as a dog (three outright upsets!), Stanford is just 3-7 ATS its L10 times being a road favorite. 8* Washington State

10* Under Royals/Mets (8:05 ET):  So much for the National League park playing a role in this year's World Series.  Last night, we had our third straight Over in the Fall Classic as the Mets (who I was on) won 9-3, bringing things to 2-1 in favor of the Royals. However, I still think the scene shifting to Citi Field will play a role in the series as Kansas City of course loses the DH from its lineup and both pitchers have to come up to bat. Furthermore, because Game 4 does not have a "marquee" pitcher involved, we are getting the highest O/U line of the series to date and as my regular clients know I often stress the importance of 7.5 due to the fact that 7 is such a key number in betting baseball totals, plus when the home team is favored, there's a good chance we won't have to play the bottom of the ninth, which is three less outs and beneficial to an Under play.  Take the Under.

Kansas City's offense continues to be wildly underrated as they've averaged 5.6 runs per game in the postseason. However, their OBP is now down to .320 after picking up just seven hits and two walks last night. Early on, it looked as if it might be another breakout performance at the plate as they scored three runs in the first two innings, but from there Noah Syndergaard & the Mets bullpen effectively shut them down, holding them to just one hit the rest of the game and the Royals really only threatened in one inning (the 6th) after that.  Since the start of the NLCS, opponents are batting just .202 against Mets' pitching (.265 OBP) and I'm confident that Gm 4 starter Steven Matz can continue the trend.  In his NLCS start, Matz held the Cubs to just one run and four hits in 4 2/3 innings. Behind him, the Mets' bullpen should be ready to go after a relatively light workload last night.

For Kansas City, their defense let them down last night and they ended up allowing the second most runs in a game this postseason.  The most was 11 in Gm 3 of the Toronto series and they responded the next night by holding the high powered Blue Jays to just two runs. Of course, they scored 14 themselves w/ Chris Young on the mound. As detailed above, I do not anticipate any kind of offensive outburst from the Royals here and Young should handle the Mets despite some concerns stemming from the fact he threw 50+ pitches in a relief role in Game 1 (got the win).  However, Young is 3-0 his L3 starts overall w/ a 1.69 ERA and 0.750 WHIP and has a 1.59 ERA this season when working on three days' rest. The Under is 23-16-1 this season when the Mets face a lefty starter. For the Royals, the Under had been 4-2-1 when they played in a NL park, prior to last night, with both Overs coming at the expense of a terrible Milwaukee pitching staff. 10* Under Royals/Mets

10* New Mexico State (8:00 ET):  You may have heard that Saturday's College Football card contains a plethora of home underdogs, 29 to be exact, which represents over half the games! One of them is winless New Mexico State (0-7 SU), which I suppose shouldn't come as much of a surprise, that is until you realize the opponent is an Idaho team that has not found itself in the role of road favorite since 2009! Thus, this game likely represents the Aggies' best chance at a win all year, especially w/ the visiting Vandals now being w/o top receiver Dezmon Epps, who had 60 catches for 745 yards this season, nearly twice the number of receptions as the #2 receiver on the team!  Good value here.  Take the points.

As bad as this season has been in Las Cruces, NMSU has been within nine points at the end of three of their games. Two of the real ugly results came on the road against SEC opponents (Florida, Ole Miss).  Now, that doesn't excuse last week's embarrassment, a 52-7 home loss to Troy where they were down 45-7 at halftime. Interestingly though, total yards (482-392) and first downs (23-20) weren't all that lopsided there. With this being Halloween night & another home game, I would expect pride to kick in here for the Aggies' players, particularly the seniors, who certainly don't want to end their careers with a winless campaign. This will probably be the final time NMSU is a single-digit dog this season.

Idaho comes in off B2B wins for the first time ever under HC Paul Petrino (first time since '09 period!) and their first win by more than a field goal all season. As mentioned earlier, they do so w/o their top offensive playmaker. Epps had at least eight receptions in every game he played this season (did not play vs. USC) and had gone over 130 yards four times. So, he clearly will be missed. Earlier in the year, I made the case that Idaho wasn't nearly as bad as their 1-10 SU record this year, but they also aren't strong enough to justify this kind of pricing by the linesmakers either. This defense gave up at least 44 points in each of its first four games vs. FBS competition.  New Mexico State represented Idaho's ONLY win last season, so this is a big revenge spot for them as well.  10* New Mexico State

10* New Orleans (7:35 ET):  This is an early revenge spot for the Pelicans, who lost on Opening Night, 111-95 at Golden State. I was on them there & it's one of just two losses I've suffered so far this NBA season. So, it's a bit of a revenge spot for me as well! Needless to say, 0-2 was not how 1st year HC Alvin Gentry envisioned starting the season when taking this job. After losing to the Warriors, his team was blown out the following night, 112-94 in Portland, by a team that had lost four of its five starters from last season. But now the Pellies find themselves in a somewhat advantageous spot, at home, hosting a Warriors team playing in the second night of back to backs. Take the points.

Of course, not only does New Orleans have revenge from Tuesday night, but also from LY's playoffs when they were swept in the first round by eventual NBA champion Golden State. Overall, the Warriors have now taken 11 of the last 12 meetings between these two teams.  Superstar Anthony Davis did not play well in the opener.  He shot a woeful 4 of 20 from the field and 10 of his 18 points came at the FT line. Naturally, you would expect him to play better here. He had 25-10 Wednesday vs. the Blazers, but that wasn't nearly enough as the team fell into an almost insurmountable 43-18 hole at the end of the first quarter. Davis, as noted in previous analysis, has expanded his repertoire to include a three-point shot and made three from behind the arc against Portland.

It's not like Golden State shot the ball lights out in the season opener. They were just 42.7% overall from the field and missed 21 of 30 three-point attempts. Save for Steph Curry, who scored 40 points, the rest of the team shot just 27 of 70 (38.5%) and was 4 for 18 from behind the arc. Last night saw the Warriors blow out the Rockets on the road, 112-92, but that appears to have come w/ some "casualties" as Klay Thompson could only play 24 minutes due to a back injury. This being the second game of a back to back, you'd expect his minutes to be further limited tonight. Andrew Bogut is also out from a concussion sustained in the season opener and of course HC Steve Kerr remains MIA. The Pelicans are 46-35 ATS at home the L2 years, including 8-4 as a dog of 3.5 to 6 pts. 10* New Orleans

8* Over Penguins/Maple Leafs (7:05 ET):  Toronto being bad is no surprise over here, almost everyone tabbed this as a "rebuilding year," so seeing that they still have just the one win (over a Columbus team that opened 0-8) is fairly predictable. If there is one thing that is a little shocking coming into this matchup, it is that Pittsburgh has opened the season by going Under in seven of its ten games (1-7-2). But they'll certainly take it, given that they've now won six of seven, including their first Over of the season, a 4-3 win over Buffalo Thursday night.  I anticipate we'll see more scoring tonight though and am on the Over in this one.

Pittsburgh is just 27th in goals per game (2.0) and 29th on the power play (9.4 percent). Both numbers, you have to figure, will start to go up.  I was surprised to learn that they only ranked 19th in gpg last season, but their power play did rank in the top 10 (19.3 percent).  A Maple Leafs club which ranks 27th in both goals allowed (3.2) and on the penalty kill (74.3 percent) should certainly give the Pens their fair share of chances to get back on track. However, at the same time, Pittsburgh has been "living dangerously" at the other end of the ice. They allowed 53 shots in the win over Buffalo Thursday night and giving up 32.4 per game this season.  Marc-Andre Fleury has consistently been bailing them out w/ a .937 save percentage, though it was actually backup Jeff Zatkoff that made 50 saves against the Sabres. The good news is that the Pens are 30-24 Over the L3 seasons after scoring 4+ goals their previous game.

While the results remain poor, Toronto has seen a rise in its puck possession numbers.  Like Pittsburgh, the Leafs have a poor shooting percentage (goals/shots) though. Both enter tonight's game below 7.0%.  Toronto's power play, like Pittsburgh's is also probably due for some "market correction."  They rank dead last in the league when on the man advantage (8.7 percent) and have scored just nine goals total during the current five-game losing streak. But they do have two games w/ 40+ shots, including one w/ 52 (in a loss to Montreal). These teams did play earlier this year and the Pens won a low-scoring affair, 2-1, but I expect way more goals tonight. Toronto is 6-3 Over the L3 seasons, at home, when the total is 5.0.  8* Over Penguins/Maple Leafs

10* Over Vanderbilt/Houston (7:00 ET):  At 6-0 Under this season, Vandy is one of the top teams for bettors who like to play games that way. The Commodores have yet to score 20 points against an FBS opponent this year (did beat Austin Peay 47-7), but arguably this week will be the first time they've had a "dance partner" w/ the capability of sending a game Over. The Commies did allow 31 and 27 points to Georgia & Ole Miss respectively, but those squads also boast defenses strong enough to severely limit what Vandy could do offensively. Here, Houston doesn't really have that distinction as the Cougars average 47.6 points per game offensively while also allowing 19.7.  That latter number has been severely aided by a bevy of weak opponents.  Take the Over.

For Houston, this figures to close as their lowest total of the season. All seven of the (unbeaten!) Cougars' games to this point have closed at 53 pts or higher w/ a number of them ending up over 70!  This is an offense that has topped 33 points in every game itself and three times has been above 50 points, including matching a season high LW in a 59-10 beat down of winless UCF. Houston averages nearly 600 total yds per contest.  Here at home, they are averaging 53.3 PPG, which would be enough to send this one Over by themselves, something they did LW vs. UCF.  1st year HC Tom Hermann (former OC at Ohio State) has been a difference maker for this team as has QB Greg Ward Jr, who is the only player at the FBS level to be currently averaging more than 200 yards & 90 yds rushing on a per game basis. 

Even against a stout Vandy defense, I fully expect UH to "get theirs."  They may not measure up to their season average, but 30+ points is certainly likely.  Therefore, the onus is left to the Vandy offense, whose numbers should see a drastic increase here due to not having to face an SEC defense. It should be noted that the last time the Commodores took on a non-SEC opponent, they managed to roll up over 400 total yards of offense, but due to three turnovers were held to just 17 points in a narrow win over Middle Tennessee. Their season average of 21.5 yards per point is abnormally high.  Over the last several weeks, Houston has faced a number of terrible teams (Texas St, Tulsa, SMU, Tulane, UCF), none of whom rank higher than 63rd in terms of offensive efficiency. 10* Over Vanderbilt/Houston

8* Iowa State (7:00 ET):  Texas has all of a sudden rediscovered some of its "lost mojo" under Charlie Strong, thanks to B2B victories over Oklahoma and Kansas State.  The win in the Red River Rivalry is one that I was on and a clear case of an extreme "buy low" opportunity on a program near its nadir (had been beaten 50-7 by TCU the previous week).  Last week, the so-called "smart money" seemed to be on the Longhorns as they had all the advantages heading into a home date w/ Kansas State. Not only were the 'Horns coming off a bye, but KSU had just got done playing TCU & Oklahoma itself in B2B weeks, only to come up short (in the case of Oklahoma, REAL short) and had no rest to speak of. With Texas now seemingly back to "preseason pricing," I believe its a good time to fade them against an underdog that is likely to deliver its best shot Saturday night.  Take the points.

While it's true that Texas came out on the wrong end of a couple close calls at home this year (vs. Cal & Oklahoma State), this game won't be taking place in Austin. What's also true is that in two "true" road games the Longhorns have been hammered to the tune of 88-10. Granted, that was against a pair of highly ranked foes (Notre Dame, TCU), but the respective margins (38-3 & 50-7) speak for themselves. It's not as if Texas is the most under-performing team in the country right now in terms of record (I'd say that Tennessee is); in fact they've actually been out-gained by about 90 yards per game on the season. Being a road favorite here is probably warranted, but not to this degree. 

The big news for Iowa State (oh yeah, that's who I'm playing here!) coming into this game is a change at quarterback as the struggling Sam Richardson (1-18 SU as a starter vs. conf opponents) has been benched in favor of redshirt sophomore Joel Lanning (this should be an improvement). Offensive coordinator Mark Mangino has also been fired. Really though, lack of offense hasn't been the primary issue for the Cyclones as they have a running back (Mike Warren) that's certainly capable of moving the chains (525 yards after contact). No, the problem has been a schedule that has seen ISU take on four teams that are still undefeated, including TCU & Baylor the L2 weeks. They are 2-1 SU otherwise and a good value here as a home underdog Halloween night. 8* Iowa State

10* Colorado State (3:30 ET):  This is one where the value has shifted onto the home team. San Diego State, who I tabbed at the beginning of the season as the likely MWC West Division winner, has really turned things around in conference play via four consecutive wins and covers. The result of this is that they are now favored in Fort Collins, a place that has always proven difficult for visitors, and a role they would not have been in just a couple of weeks ago.  Making the home dog all the more enticing in this spot is that Colorado State is coming off a bye and a big win (here at home) over Air Force the week before that. The Rams have not been a home underdog since taking on Boise State back in the 2013 season. Take the points here.

SDSU's season got off to a somewhat auspicious start as they struggled far more than the 37-3 final score showed in the opener vs. FCS San Diego. The offense gained only 305 total yards in that one, but benefited from six Toreros' turnovers.  The entire team then continued to struggle through the rest of the non-conference slate, most notably in an embarrassing 34-27 home loss to South Alabama (were 17.5-pt favorites!) where this time the defense faltered, giving up over 500 total yards.  However, once the opponents became more familiar (i.e. MW play began), success came about. All four league wins have been by 14 or more points, the most notable coming last week against Utah State, 48-14 as a 4-pt home dog. The defense (3-3-5 scheme) has been outstanding during this stretch, forcing nine turnovers the L3 games alone (four last week), but let's pump the breaks a little here. On the other side of the ball, QB Maxwell Smith has improved some, but has yet to even throw for 200 yards in any game this season. In fact, he hasn't even been asked to attempt more than 15 passes in any conference game!  The turnover margin (+4) vs. Utah State was huge last week and as a result 61 (!) of the team's 71 plays were runs.

Colorado State lost to Utah State, but this is no "apples to apples" comparison as they not only had to travel to Logan, but also were catching the Aggies off their bye week. The following week saw the Rams get roughed up by Boise State (lost 41-10) here at Hughes Stadium and the team stood at 2-4 SU for the season. However, the other two losses were both by a field goal and came against Power 5 teams (Minnesota, Colorado). What followed was CSU's best performance of the season to date, a 38-23 win over Air Force (4-pt dogs) as they rolled up 456 total yards of offense. This team is actually far better than its record shows as they have had the lead in all but one game this year and are outscoring opponents 71-33 in the first quarter. They are the ONLY team in the country to rank in the top 20 on third down, both offensively and defensively. They've also converted nearly 89 percent of all red zone opportunities. The bye week is huge as San Diego State is yet to have one while Colorado State won both times last season when playing w/ a week of rest. The Rams have won 15 of 19 home games and this is the Aztecs' first visit here since 2011.  10* Colorado State

Update: I'm well aware of the QB change for Georgia & that has no bearing on the play. If you want to hear something really scary (it is Halloween!), Florida's backup kicker is a dental student!

10* Georgia (3:30 ET):  Perhaps it's the loss to Alabama. Or, maybe, it's the fact Georgia is now w/o RB Nick Chubb for the remainder of the season. But it sure seems as if all respect has been lost for the Bulldogs, once a top 10 team w/ legitimate Playoff aspirations. Now, Mark Richt's seat has pretty much been hot for the balance of his 15-year tenure here in Athens. A loss here would make that seat hotter than its possibly ever been. Fortunately for him though, I believe his team is being severely undervalued coming into this year's installment of the "World's Largest Cocktail Party" vs. Florida. Prior to the start of the season, there is no way that UGA would have been an underdog to these Gators. Public perception, clearly, has swung too far in the other direction and I'll take advantage by grabbing the points.

Florida, like Georgia, is coming off a bye week. So there's no real edge situationally here. However, the Gators' lone loss of the season did come the last time we saw them, 35-28 at LSU. I suppose there's no shame there considering it was the first time the team had to play w/o suspended QB Will Grier, but guess what? Grier is still suspended and thus I'm a little lukewarm on the contingent from Gainesville. Treon Harris represents a significant downgrade from Grier (which is why he was benched in favor of Grier!) as he completed only 38.1% of his pass attempts in the second half against LSU.  Even pre-Harris, a case could have been made that Florida's 6-1 SU record - a major surprise - was a bit of a mirage as they were fortunate to get by both Kentucky and Tennessee and a +4 turnover margin was the key in the 38-10 win over Ole Miss.  As a favorite, Florida is just 9-10 ATS the L3 seasons.

This is also a huge revenge game for Georgia, who lost outright LY (as 10-pt favorites) by a score of 38-20. Harris was under center in that game for Florida, but threw only 10 passes as the Gators shockingly ran for 400+ yards in the upset! Don't look for that to happen this year as Georgia actually brings in the better defense, one that allows just 308 total yards per game & held Missouri to only 164 two weeks ago! The loss to Alabama was ugly, yet the defense only gave up 190 yards passing and has allowed under 200 four of the last five games. That's key because this Florida team doesn't run the ball as well as it did last year (just 55 yds on 31 carries vs. LSU).  The loss to Tennessee could have gone either way (I was on the Vols) and the loss of Chubb on the first play clearly affected the offense. With the Florida QB situation being unsettled, it makes me less concerned about the Georgia QB situation.  Upsets have been commonplace in this rivalry w/ the dog winning outright three of the last five years. 10* Georgia

10* Wyoming (10:15 ET):  The contingent from Laramie may not be a very good football team (just 1-7 SU), but if there's one thing that Craig Bohl's Cowboys have going for themselves right now, it's the fact they are covering spreads. Wyoming is a perfect 4-0 ATS its last four games overall, three times cashing as an underdog of 21 or more points, a range they again find themselves in tonight in Logan. Overall, the Pokes are 5-1 ATS as dogs, including an outright win over Nevada two weeks ago, 28-21 as four-point home pups. I know that Utah State backers will make the case that their team is at home and had an extra day to prepare, but this is just too many points to lay in a nationally televised matchup.

Utah State has experienced two drastically different results the L2 weeks as they clobbered Boise State here at home, 52-26, but then followed that up w/ an ugly 48-14 loss at San Diego State. USU backers are likely to point towards a -4 turnover margin as the primary culprit for LW's defeat, but the bottom line there is they were still dominated in total yardage (429-239), so it's not as if the game would have been much different w/o the TO's. The Aggies' defense allowed the Aztecs to score on six consecutive drives and a frightening 336 yards rushing. The game was never close as SDSU led 17-0 after the first quarter. What is not up for debate though is that USU's 52-26 win over Boise State was a bit misleading thanks to EIGHT Broncos' turnovers as total yardage in that game was basically even (USU 334-333).  This is a team that barely beat an FCS opponent (Southern Utah), 12-9. A 33-18 win over Colorado State came after a bye, leaving only a 56-14 victory over downtrodden Fresno State as their lone impressive performance this season when taking the field w/o a week of rest.

Wyoming has just one win this season, that being two weeks ago at home vs. Nevada, and is already eliminated from bowl contention. Despite all that, I see them showing up to compete in this rare national TV appearance. Three times this season, they've been dead even or up in total yards in defeat, including the only time they lost by a margin greater than the current spread for tonight's game (that was vs. Appalachian State). The Cowboys have triple revenge here and actually outgained the Aggies last year (also +6 first downs) despite losing 20-3.  Take the points. 10* Wyoming

10* Sacramento (10:05 ET):  I can't imagine that too many people will be interested in laying this many points w/ a Kings team that dropped its season opener, but hosting a terrible Lakers squad that still receives far too much public backing is one of the select times doing so is justifiable.  Remember, the Lakers couldn't even beat Minnesota at home in their opener. For Sacramento, this is a drop in class after playing the far superior LA team Wednesday night. Turnovers put them into an early hole too big to climb out of against the Clippers, but the Kings still competed for four quarters and ended up basically playing the Clips even over the final 36 minutes.  Coaching doesn't always mean a ton in the NBA, but George Karl over Byron Scott is a massive mismatch.  Again, don't be afraid to lay the points here!

Those thinking that the return of a healthy Kobe Bryant to the Lakers lineup will lead to any kind of drastic improvement are fooling themselves.  Kobe is officially "over the hill" now, yet he continues to take far too many shots at the expense of his teammates.  He missed 16 of 24 in the opener, including 10 of 13 from three-point range and his final eight overall.  Perhaps equally worrisome was the poor debut of rookie PG D'Angelo Russell, who finished with just 4-3-2 in his first game as a pro.  By the end of the game, he wasn't even playing point guard, which is supposed to be his position w/ the team. Again, the Lakers just lost to a Minnesota team that won only 16 games last season, at home, and shot just 9 for 35 from three-point range! A clear case can be made that this once-proud organization is the worst team in the entire Western Conference.

Sacramento has a "uniquely" built roster to say the least, but at least there's some reasons for optimism here. The Kings did take three of the four matchups w/ the Lakers last year, including both here at home.  Overall, they are 6-2 SU the last eight times hosting the Lakers while averaging 105.2 PPG on 48.2 percent shooting. Boogie Cousins will be the best player on the floor Friday night and his increased range (made 4 of 5 3pt attempts Weds!) is a great sign. Did I mention that the Lakers are also awful defensively?  10* Sacramento

10* NY Mets (8:05 ET): I admit that right now it's a bit risky to be going against the Royals, especially since that didn't work out so well for me in Game #2 (I did have KC in Game 1). But, the Mets are back home, in a price range that has brought them a ridiculous amount of success this year and they have Noah Syndergaard on the mound. I give Syndergaard a big edge over Yordano Ventura, who has been able to find success this postseason despite some really pedestrian numbers. Furthermore, it bears mentioning that Game 2 was yet another instance of the Royals falling behind only to come back and win. How many times can they pull that feat off? Another key is this game taking place at Citi Field; that means no DH for Kansas City. Look for New York to break through w/ just their second WS win since 1986.

Syndergaard has made just two postseason starts thus far and had to face Zack Greinke and Jake Arrieta.  He stood toe-to-toe w/ both, even coming out on the winning end against Arreita in the NLCS, something no other pitcher had done since Cole Hamels (w/ the Phillies) threw a no-hitter back on July 25th. There, as a +130 dog on the money line, Syndergaard threw 5 2/3 innings of three-hit ball, giving up just one run. He now has 39 strikeouts his L4 starts and a 0.842 WHIP his L3. At home, he has a 10-3 TSR w/ a 2.41 ERA and 0.814 WHIP this season. I mentioned earlier that this is a great price range to grab the Mets at, as they are a ridiculous 17-1 this season as a home favorite of -125 to -150 on the ML.

Meanwhile, Ventura has struggled somewhat this postseason even though the team has won his last three starts. He has a 4.02 ERA and 1.469 WHIP during that timeframe, which doesn't even include his poor start in Game 1 of the ALDS vs. Houston where he allowed three runs in only two innings of work! Again, Kansas City is on quite the run right now, but they have trailed in the majority of their games this postseason. I do not see them simply "running away" with this series (though I certainly could see them winning it). The no-DH factor looms large here as KC pitchers are not used to hitting and that clearly weakens the Royals contact-heavy lineup. 10* NY Mets

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET):  I'm going against the Blackhawks again after doing so last night worked out well for me as they lost 3-1 up in Winnipeg. That had to be somewhat of a frustrating setback for the reigning Stanley Cup champs as they outshot the Jets 46-31, but the bottom line is that this team is struggling to find the back of the net right now w/ only one regulation goal in their last three games. Also, as mentioned in yday's analysis, the 'Hawks have struggled on the road this year, dropping three of four, and in those four games have tallied just four goals in regulation. The back to back scenario does them no favors here as they take on a rested Wild team that hasn't played since Tuesday. I like Minnesota tonight.

The Wild have yet to lose at home this year as they're a perfect 4-0 so far. Only one other team in the league (Montreal) has yet to lose on its home ice and a big reason for the Wild's success here at the XCel Energy Center is they do an outstanding job of limiting the other team's number of shots (just 25.2/game allowed). They beat Edmonton here on Tuesday, 4-3, as it's actually been the offense leading the way the L4 games w/ 14 goals scored. The team has won three times during that stretch, all at home, and as far as the regular season is concerned, Minnesota has done well head-to-head against Chicago, going 5-4-1 in 10 matchups the L2 seasons.  Of course, this is a big revenge spot for them after they were eliminated in LY's playoffs in only four games.

The Blackhawks have two major concerns right now. One is that they are banged up on the blue line w/ three defensemen injured. Two is the lack of scoring. As I said earlier, being in the second game of a back to back does them no favors as they will likely have to turn to Scott Darling in net. Corey Crawford basically carried the team to victories over both Tampa Bay and Anaheim, both 1-0 wins in overtime, earlier in the week, and Darling represents a significant downgrade. He allowed four goals on just 24 shot attempts in a 4-1 loss at Washington the last time we saw him, which was over two weeks ago. Not coincidentally, that was also the second game of a back to back for the team.  8* Minnesota

8* Toronto (7:35 ET): While these teams finished 1-2 in the Atlantic Division last season, they were actually miles apart at the betting window as the upstart Celtics finished with one of the top five ATS records in the league while the first place Raptors languished far behind at just 43.5%, also seeing their season end via a first round sweep. Coming into this season, I feel there being a "groundswell" of support for Boston to overtake Toronto in the division, but I'm not sure I buy into that as a pretty large gap existed between the two last year (nine games) and it remains to be seen if the superstar-less Celtics have upgraded their roster to the degree some think they have. This was a sub-.500 team, after all, last year.

Both teams opened 2015-16 w/ a win, each in the home favorite role.  Toronto beat Indiana, 106-99 (-5.5), after erasing an early 10-point first quarter deficit. They scored 69 points after halftime and all but one starter finished w/ 14+ points. That was a much more difficult opponent that they had to deal with, compared to Boston, who hosted lowly Philadelphia and won 112-95 (-12.5).  The Celtics also fell into an early first quarter hole, but the fact that their bench outscored their 76ers counterparts 67-15 quickly nullified that.  Something else to consider is that Boston actually had a losing record here at home last season.

As division rivals, these teams played four times last year and three of the games were very close, decided by three points or less. Boston won two of those, by a combined three points, but my own personal power rankings say they are overvalued coming into this first meeting of 2015-16 and this line should be closer to a pick 'em.  There will likely be a great deal of focus on Amir Johnson now being on the Celtics (former Raptor), but don't discount the addition of DeMarre Carroll to the Raptors, as he should improve them on the defensive end. Having lost 21 of their previous 25 visits to Boston, Toronto is likely "due" to turn things around.  Take the points. 8* Toronto

10* Over Heat/Cavaliers (7:05 ET):  This matchup is being televised on ESPN and the pairing will obviously always carry special meaning as it's LeBron James vs. his former team. This is also the Cavs' home opener and you better believe that Cleveland will be rocking, however, I'm a little leery to lay the points w/ them after they (surprisingly) checked in as dogs for each of their first two games (covered both). Instead, I'm looking at the total and what is also surprising is that this Cavs team was the top Under bet in the league last year (42-58-2 including playoffs), plus have opened this season w/ a pair of Unders as well. That's led to this total being too low, in my opinion, as I expect plenty of points tonight in this one. Take the Over.

Miami wasn't too far behind Cleveland in the Under department last season at 46-36 (remember, they failed to make the playoffs), but the difference is that they opened 2015-16 w/ an Over, beating Charlotte 104-94 at home Wednesday night. The Heat shot the ball ridiculously well, from all ranges, as they were 60% from three-point range, 95.2% (21 of 22) from the free throw line and 49.2 percent overall. While it's difficult to imagine them duplicating those numbers again tonight, Wednesday's performance was so impressive that as long as the decrease isn't too severe, the offensive numbers will still look good.  Miami certainly is unlikely to play as poorly as Memphis did against the Cavs Weds night as they scored just 76 points on horrific 35.4% shooting. The Grizz missed 16 of 18 three-point attempts.

Cleveland looked absolutely outstanding in that 30-point win in Memphis and perhaps the most remarkable part of it was that LeBron James played only 31 minutes and finished w/ just 12 points.  His numbers are almost certain to go up here, probably significantly, so that will counteract any dropoff from a bench unit that combined to score an impressive 50 points vs. the Grizzlies. The Cavs are one of the more lethal teams from three-point range in the league, but have been leaving a lot of points at the free throw line thus far. The Over is 12-4 the L2 seasons when they are a home fave of -6.5 to -9, almost all of those games coming last year.  10* Over Heat/Cavaliers

8* Over Flyers/Sabres (7:05 ET): Little was expected from either Philadelphia or Buffalo coming into the season and thus far both have somewhat lived up to "advanced billing" w/ a combined 7-10-2 record, though that's a little unfair to Flyers as they do have a winning record (4-3-2) while the Sabres currently sit at 3-7 following last night's 4-3 loss in Pittsburgh. These two actually just played earlier in the week (Tuesday) and it was Buffalo prevailing there, in overtime, by that same 4-3 score. Overall, the Sabres have now gone Over the total four straight times w/ at least seven total goals scored in every game. Both sides have been averaging a ton of shots over their last five games, so I like the Over to cash again here.

Believe it or not, these teams actually come into this game ranked 1-2 in the league in shot attempts per game. Philadelphia is at 34.1 while Buffalo is right behind at 33.6. The Flyers problem is that they are also right there among the league leaders in shots allowed per game (33.0), which is the third highest number in the entire league entering play tonight. So it does seem a bit curious that linesmakers would open this number at a flat 5.0. Philly did lose yday as well, 4-1 at home to the Devils, thus pushing on the total there. They are now 2-0-2 Over their L4 games, so they are trending in somewhat similar direction as the Sabres, totals-wise. One area that the Flyers must take advantage of in this matchup is Buffalo's 30th (ie last) ranked penalty kill, which is allowing opponent to convert a ghastly one-third of the time. Of course, Philly's PK isn't much better (27th) at only 75 percent.

The Flyers have now allowed exactly four goals in three of the last four games. They gave up three, including an empty-netter, in the third period last night. But what was interesting is that it was the third lowest total for combined shots in a Flyers game this season (still 61!).  Goaltender Steve Mason has had his problems so far (.845 save percentage on the road), so he could give way to Michael Neuvirth. Either way, a Buffalo team that has registered a combined 93 shots its L2 games, including 54 last night (24 in the third period alone!), should take advantage. The Sabres have similar issues between the pipes w/ a collective .877 save percentage, 27th in the league.  8* Over Flyers/Sabres

10* Under Mavs/Clippers (10:35 ET): Both of these teams won on the road last night and both games went Over the respective totals. Dallas, who I had, thumped Phoenix by a score of 111-95 in a game where they opened as 4.5-pt underdogs. Incredibly, eight players scored in double figures as they built a lead as big as 28 points in the fourth quarter! They shot over 47% for the game and were 10 of 21 on three-point attempts. Meanwhile, the Clippers also scored 111 points in their win over Sacramento, where the final margin was significantly closer (7 points) despite their overall shooting percentage of 52.5 percent. Emotions should be high here (due to the DeAndre Jordan situation) and I expect plenty of intensity, not to mention an across the board decline offensively due to this being the second night of back to backs for both squads.  Take the Under.

In the interest of full disclosure, the last seven times these teams have played, the Over has cashed every time.  The last meeting, back in March, saw the Mavs shoot a preposterous 60.7 percent from the field in a 30-point (129-99 win) that ranked as one of their best performances all season. But that was a home game. On the road, Dallas saw its offensive numbers slip, somewhat significantly, last year. That didn't stop me from taking them against a team like Phoenix last night, but this is a step up in class. Also, while it's only October, the Mavs are pretty beat up right now w/ Chandler Parsons (knee) out for this game and Deron Williams and Wes Matthews both battling injuries.

The Clippers, like the Mavs, aren't likely to play as well offensively here as they did last night. While the same core from last year is back, LA is breaking in a number of new players and that can lead to some growing pains.  The team they played last night (Sacramento) is typically awful on the defensive end and this is clearly a much tougher matchup, even at home.  They are 14-8 Under the total as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points the L3 seasons. Neither team went Over the respective totals last night by any kind of significant margin; in fact both games went Over by just three points thanks to relatively high-scoring fourth quarters and plenty of late free throw shooting. 10* Under Mavs/Clippers

10* New England (8:25 ET):  Taking the current temperature down in Miami, one would think that the legendary Don Shula might need to start making room for Dan Campbell among the pantheon of Dolphins coaches! In all seriousness, Campbell has seemingly restored order for what was a disappointing team, but he also came aboard at a very opportune time. He took over during a bye week and his first two games were both at home, against Tennessee and Houston, neither of whom is very good. This week presents Campbell's first true test, a visit to Foxboro to play the unbeaten Patriots.  Miami has lost six straight times here in New England, the last three all coming by double digit margins, and I think tonight will prove to be a "cold dose of reality" for Mr. Campbell and company. 

I don't think that this Patriots team is as good as the '07 version that went undefeated heading into the Super Bowl.  But they are the league's best team currently. The last two games have seen them get "backdoored," first by the Colts and then by the Jets, which I enjoyed seeing because I happened to have the underdog in both instances! However, I find it curious that Miami is basically getting the same (or more) respect from the linesmakers that the Jets did last week. The Jets are better than the Dolphins, for proof of this look no further than 27-14 beatdown they laid on them Week 4 in London.  Again, the Dolphins have beaten two bad teams under Campbell and last week saw the opponent (Houston) basically implode in the first half.  QB Ryan Tannehill got a lot of praise for completing 18 of 19 pass attempts, but he was still sacked four times and was just 1 for 5 on converting third downs. That's a pretty small sample size of attempts to be drawing positive conclusions from. Consider that Tom Brady had to throw 46 times in his team's win, against a far better opponent than Miami faced, as the Patriots essentially abandoned the run game altogether. 

New England is a remarkable 21-1 SU its last 22 home games and has scored at least 30 points each of its last five games overall. I just don't think that the Dolphins have the kind of firepower to keep up here. The Patriots' closest margin of victory this year has been seven points (three times!) and I think they'll be hungry for a blowout.  They've won five straight on Thursday night and despite last week's result (when lowly San Francisco was the host), home teams typically enjoy a decided advantage in these TNF matchups.  Remember that Miami lost to Jacksonville earlier in the the year and the following week saw New England destroy that same Jags team, 51-17, here at Gillette Stadium.  Lay the points.  10* New England

10* Winnipeg (8:05 ET):  I suppose, that at first glance, it might be a little surprising to see the Jets favored over the Blackhawks, albeit its close to even on the money line and on home ice.  But Chicago has dropped two of its three road games thus far, including one at lowly Philadelphia in shutout fashion. For Winnipeg, this is the finale of a six-game homestand where they've failed to take advantage, dropping three of the previous five. However, they have had to face St. Louis, Tampa Bay and Los Angeles during that time, so it's not like it's been the easiest slew of opponents.  Chicago might be the defending Stanley Cup champs, but they also haven't scored in regulation the past two games, so I like the Jets to break through here.

These teams played five times last season. The road team, surprisingly, won every time! In fact, the 'Hawks have NEVER lost here in Manitoba in four all-time visits since the Jets' franchise relocated from Atlanta. However, that's a trend that's due to end, particularly w/ some of Chicago's recent offensive struggles. They've leaned on Corey Crawford, heavily, the last two games as no team in league history had previously won B2B 1-0 overtime games w/ the same goaltender and goal scorer. Jonathan Toews was the only skater to find the back of the net against Anaheim & Tampa Bay and considering the team was held to two goals or fewer four times by the Jets last season, I expect the offensive struggles to continue. In three road games this season, Chicago has scored only four goals.

Winnipeg, unfortunately, has given up exactly four goals in four consecutive games.  You won't win much in this league doing that, but Michael Hutchinson is likely to get the starting nod between the pipes tonight and he has a 1.23 goals against average in four career starts vs. the Blackhawks. The Jets have only one fewer point right now than the Blackhawks, so the gap between the two clubs isn't as great as you might think.  Chicago was badly outshot by Anaheim (39-24) Monday night and has a record of just 4-7 when coming off a shutout victory (was 3-7). The Jets, meanwhile, are 22-14 after scoring one goal or less in their previous contest.  10* Winnipeg

8* Miami (OH) (7:30 ET):  Buffalo comes off one of the more misleading final results of last week's card as they beat Ohio 41-17 despite being outgained 422-373 (-3 in first downs) in the contest.  The win snapped a three-game losing skid (averaged just 19 PPG) and predictably the culprit was turnovers as the Bulls forced four of them, two of which were interceptions that were returned for touchdowns! It's tough to trust this team laying points on the road for the 1st time all season as not only were they blown out two weeks ago at Central Michigan (lost 51-14!), but even in their one road victory this year (33-15 vs. Fla Atlantic), they "got the breaks," forcing five turnovers, which negated a 490-290 total yards disadvantage. Take the points here.

Now, Miami is obviously not a good football team. I'll concede that right off the bat. The RedHawks have lost seven straight, all but two by at least 22 points, and their one win came against a non-FBS opponent (Presbyterian).  But we've seen some curious line movement for this one that indicates sharp money is on the home team. Despite receiving the overwhelming majority of bets for this game, Buffalo has seen the number actually decrease!  Given the good fortune they experienced last week, it's easy to see why this is happening. Also, Miami has played a fairly challenging schedule to this point. Not only have they played four of their last five on the road, but they also had to travel to Wisconsin earlier in the year, plus their one October home game was against defending MAC Champion Northern Illinois. Here in Oxford, the RedHawks did take Cincinnati down to the wire, losing only 37-33 and Buffalo is certainly not the same caliber of opponent.  While Miami has lost three straight times to the Bulls, two of those games were decided by eight points or less, including last year in Buffalo.

As mentioned earlier, Buffalo had lost three straight games prior to LW's surprise outright victory over Ohio.  Two of those were close, but also at home.  This is a team w/ two misleading victories this season, last week and the one over Florida Atlantic, so they are ripe to be upset. The last time they were a road favorite was the middle of last season and they lost outright (were -14!) to an Eastern Michigan team that didn't beat another single FBS opponent all year.  8* Miami (OH)

Note: High winds (up to 22 MPH) are expected in Ypsilanti this evening. This only strengthens the play!

8* Under Western Michigan/Eastern Michigan (7:30 ET):  Despite an offense that has failed to top 22 pts five of the last six weeks, Eastern Michigan continues to go Over the total at a high rate (7-1 Over this season) thanks to a defense that is beyond leaky (44.5 PPG allowed). The last five games, all losses, have seen the Eagles give up 44+ points every time out, so the fact that the O/U lines have consistently been high hasn't really even mattered. But for this Thursday night matchup w/ rival Western Michigan, we have the highest total to date & even w/ the WMU offense seemingly rounding into form and likely to take advantage of the poor EMU defense, I see this one staying Under the total. That's because the visitors' defense has given up just 27 points the L2 weeks and figures to again hold this Eagles' offense in check.

This one could very well play out the same way as last year's meeting, which was won by Western Michigan, 51-7 as 27-point favorites.  However, here in Ypsilanti, the Broncos have lost two straight and overall they'd lost three straight times to the Eagles prior to LY's big victory. Though their previous road game saw them go into Athens and destroy Ohio, 49-14, the Broncos' first two road games saw them total only 29 points. Granted, one of those was against Ohio State, but the other was vs. Georgia Southern.  This is also the highest total of the season for an WMU game, but considering the way they're defense has played the L2 games, the number appears to be inflated. Last week saw the Broncos hold Miami (OH) to just 276 total yards and 13 points. They forced three 3 and outs and allowed only a field goal after halftime.

While I concede that Eastern Michigan's defense is likely to be "torched" again this week, the number is high enough that we have plenty of "cushion."  A rout would likely lead to the favorite taking its foot "off the gas pedal" in the second half.  Note only 17 total pts were scored in Western Michigan's game last week. Also, one of their TD's was set up by a Miami fumble deep in their own territory. Meanwhile, the EMU defense does figure to improve somewhat after facing LSU, Toledo and Northern Illinois (all on the road) over the previous four games. It figures to be a lot of running the ball from WMU here, which will at least eat up the clock. Again, EMU has failed to top 22 pts in five of its last six games and last week saw them get shut out in the first half.  8* Under Western Michigan/Eastern Michigan

10* Nashville (10:35 ET):  The Predators are off to a strong 6-1-1 start as they get set to embark on the always difficult Southern California road trip (San Jose, LA, Anaheim) and are well rested having not played since Saturday's overtime loss to Pittsburgh. That was their lowest scoring game of the season (lost 2-1), but considering their recent shot output (34.6 L5 games) and the fact they are 4th in goals allowed, a bounce back is to be expected here at the Shark Tank.  I think that the Preds are massively undervalued in this spot as San Jose had dropped three in a row (all against quality competition) before their own bounce back, that being Saturday's 5-2 win over lowly Carolina. I look for the road team to pick up the two points here.

The Sharks hosted the Preds twice last season and won both contests in shutout fashion. Note that Nashville has NEVER been shut out three straight times by the same opponent as the road team.  Don't be surprised if special teams play a significant role in this one as San Jose is just 3 for its last 25 on the power play, including 0 for 11 the L5 games.  They don't figure to turn it around in that department against a very good Nashville penalty kill, which is 21 of its last 24.  Furthermore, Preds netminder Pekka Rinne has a 1.17 goals against average his L5 starts vs. the Sharks, not to mention a 1.84 GAA overall this season as he's started all but one game.

Nashville has been outshot only once over its last five games and it wasn't their last time on the ice as they finished w/ a 39-25 edge in shots vs. Pittsburgh. That followed a three-game win streak where they tallied 14 goals.  Another key is that there's no significant injuries here.  San Jose, who has a few players out, has been outshot three times in its last four games including a 34-21 deficit vs. Carolina Saturday. It's largely been "feast or famine" for them when it comes to putting the puck on net.  They are somewhat middle of the road in terms of possession numbers while Nashville ranks in the top 10 in Fenwick.  Good value on the better team here. 10* Nashville

8* Dallas (10:05 ET):  Most NBA experts have seven teams (Warriors, Spurs, Thunder, Clippers, Rockets, Grizzlies, Pelicans) penciled in for the playoffs. The two matching up here are expected to battle for that eighth and final spot (w/ Utah as well).  I think that the projected regression in Dallas is too severe though. Remember that this team won 50 games last season before injuries and the unwanted presence of Rajon Rondo took their toll heading into the playoffs.  I don't think they'll be nearly as bad as the projections (just 37 wins!) are calling for. On the bright side, that makes them undervalued for tonight's season opener against a Suns team that I do have declining in 2015-16.  Take the points.

Phoenix has been in NBA limbo for the past few seasons, a terrible place to be, as they haven't been good enough to make the playoffs in the loaded Western Conference but also haven't been bad enough to get into position to add a key piece via the Draft Lottery.  Simply put, this is a team at a crossroads entering this season.  The West is only getting stronger and I don't see the Suns as being any better.  Therefore, it would be wise to simply do a good old fashioned "teardown." The Morris twins have been split up, which may leave holdover Markieff angry, and the lone free agent acquisition was 33-year old Tyson Chandler. Defensively, this team was quite poor last season, allowing 103.3 points per game. 

Dallas isn't going to blow things up, not as long as Mark Cuban is running the show, and despite a (very) disappointing offseason (spurned by DeAndre Jordan), I'm not convinced this team is significantly worse compared to last season.  They swapped out Rondo for Deron Williams, a Dallas native, which is clearly a net gain.  It does appear that Chandler Parsons won't play tonight, but new SG Wesley Matthews will.  Of course, there's Dirk Nowitzki as well and while he has plenty of "tread on the tires" (18th season!), he leads what is still one of the league's better offenses (105.5 PPG last year). The Mavs were shockingly one of the worst ATS teams in the league last year (35-48-4) and come into 2015-16 undervalued as a result.  8* Dallas

10* NY Mets (8:05 ET):  With both bullpens obviously taxed from last night's marathon Game 1, there's an extra onus on the respective starting pitchers tonight and in that regard it's advantage Mets. You just never know what you're going to get w/ the Royals' Johnny Cueto, who I played in a sterling LDS Game 5 performance vs. Houston (eight innings of two-hit ball),  but he then regressed severely in his lone LCS start (played against him) as he allowed eight runs in just two innings of work. Meanwhile, I think we can safely say we that the Mets' Jacob deGrom can be played w/ confidence as he's had an outstanding postseason thus far, including wins opposite both Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw in the LDS.  Last time out, he allowed just two runs on four hits in seven strong innings at Wrigley Field. The Mets are my play for Game 2.

deGrom has had an incredible year w/ a 2.47 ERA and 0.981 WHIP in his 33 starts, 23 of which have resulted in team victories.  The team is 13-5 when he toes the rubber on the road and he's allowed just 5 ER total in his L5 starts, spanning 30 innings. He has 27 strikeouts in 20 postseason innings. All of his playoff starts have been on the road, so the situation certainly won't overwhelm him here.  Meanwhile, Cueto may be better at home than on the road but he's allowed 4+ ER in seven of his L12 starts.  The Royals used six relievers over eight innings last night, so there is even more pressure on Cueto here, even though his team is up 1-0 in the series. Had the Mets performed better w/ RISP (just 1 for 10) in Gm 1, they likely would have won. Remember they led going into the bottom of the ninth when closer Jeurys Familia blew his first save since July.

While I was on the Royals in Game 1, you'll recall I went against them in every game in the ALCS. Like I said in yday's analysis, that had a lot to do w/ my respect for Toronto, but it should be pointed out that the Royals have now won eight games this postseason yet trailed by at least two runs in five of those victories! In all but three games this postseason, they have trailed by multiple runs, so they have had some good fortune go their way. I still have questions regarding skipper Ned Yost.  With a big edge in starting pitching, it's tough not to like the Mets here, especially because they're a solid 78-34 when favored on the ML this season. 10* NY Mets

10* New York (8:05 ET):  These teams experienced drastically different 2014-15 campaigns. Milwaukee snuck up on everybody, improving by 26 wins and going 55.3% against the spread (47-38-3) en route to a surprise playoff berth. The Knicks, on the other hand, were a complete disaster. They went a money burning 34-46-2 ATS at the betting window, the worst such mark in the entire Eastern Conference, and finished w/ the second worst overall (SU) record in the league at 17-65. However, the return of Carmelo Anthony (injured most of last season) and the arrival of #4 overall DC (Kristaps Porzingis) brings hope for improvement and I do think this downtrodden franchise comes into the year undervalued, especially in this spot against a Bucks team that's likely to slightly regress. Take the points.

Milwaukee won't have two of its key players tonight. One is Jabari Parker, last year's top draft choice, who of course missed most of last season due to injury anyway.  However, the other is Giannis Antetokounmpo, the so-called "Greek Freak" and that's significant.  He averaged 12.7 points and 6.7 rebounds per game a season ago.  Remember that this was only a .500 team last season and they have some new pieces, so it could take a little bit of time to gel.  Furthermore, you have to put things in perspective. The Bucks were not favored in the vast majority of their games last season and actually closed on a 1-8 ATS run when favored by six or more points.  That includes a non-cover against these Knicks plus three outright losses.  Safe to say, they're coming into the year a tad bit overvalued.

The Knicks lost all four meetings last year w/ the Bucks. Their one trip to Milwaukee saw them play w/ Anthony and resulted in only a four-point loss. It's important to note that the season really nose-dived once Anthony "shut it down" and I expect him to have a solid bounce back campaign here. He's had plenty of past success here at the Bradley Center, averaging 29.6 PPG, his highest output in any arena. The offense showed signs of picking up the pace in the preseason and despite not having starting PG Aaron Afflalo here, their offensive efficiency should be improved. 10* New York

8* New Orleans (10:35 ET):  This is a big revenge spot for the Pelicans, who suffered a four-game sweep at the hands of the eventual NBA Champs in last year's playoff. That series was far more competitive than a sweep might otherwise indicate, however, as they actually led the Warriors by 20 points after three quarters in Game 3 before blowing that lead and eventually bowing out the next game.  But w/ Anthony Davis (league's best player?) and a new coach, this team figures to be better in 2015-16 and despite seven straight losses at Oracle Arena (1-14 SU L15 vs. GSW overall!), I see them being very competitive in tonight's season opener.  Furthermore, how many times have we seen a team celebrating a championship win from the previous year suffer a letdown once the game gets going? Take the points here.

Golden State retained its entire core from a 67-win campaign, but will be w/o their head coach, Steve Kerr (back surgery), for the foreseeable future.  That leaves the unproven Luke Walton (!) in charge on an interim basis. Of course, it would have been Alvin Gentry manning the ship had he not decided to take over as HC in New Orleans! Gentry's knowledge of the "inner-workings" of the Warriors should prove to be critical for tonight's matchup.  Again, history shows this has been a very tough spot for teams that won the NBA Finals the previous year as they are just 5-8 ATS on Opening Night (San Antonio failed to cover last year) the L13 seasons as the ring ceremony often times serves as a distraction and causes the home team to come out flat. 

While the Warriors might enter the year as the best team, New Orleans will have the best player on the court Tuesday night in the form of Anthony Davis, who just may supplant LeBron James as the league's top player this season.  He shot 54 percent from the floor against Golden State in the playoffs last year, averaging 31.0 points per game.  He ranked 4th in the league in PPG a year ago, while leading all players in blocks and finishing in the top eight in FG%, rebounds and double doubles. Look for the Pelicans to stay within the generous number on Opening Night. 8* New Orleans

10* Kansas City (8:05 ET): Despite being the slight series favorite, the Royals come in as the (slight) dog for Game 1 of the World Series, even though they're at home.  I suppose it's easy to see why, given the way the Mets ripped through the NLCS, sweeping the Cubs in grand fashion. But teams that sweep their way through the LCS often come back "down to the Earth" in the World Series as six of the last seven teams in the Mets' current position (i.e coming off an LCS sweep) have gone on to lose the World Series. Three such teams have actually ended up being swept themselves! Furthermore, this is Kansas City's second year in a row in the World Series. Unlike the Super Bowl, there's no "loser's curse" here as there has been six instances all-time of an American League team losing the previous year's WS in seven games and returning the following the year. The previous five all ended up winning the second go around. This isn't necessarily an endorsement of the Royals to win it all, but I do like them in Game 1.

Pretty much everyone will give the Mets the edge in terms of starting pitching in this series and they should.  However, the Royals offense has proven itself to be vastly underrated, time and time again, and they've averaged 5.7 runs per game this postseason w/ a .449 slugging percentage.  This lineup does an excellent job at making contact and is outstanding against fastballs, which they likely will see a lot from the Mets starting rotation in this series.  Mets' Gm 1 starter Matt Harvey has rebounded nicely in the playoffs after a dicey end to the regular season, but still only has a 6-6 TSR on the road this season (3.65 ERA) and it's worth noting both playoff starts have been at home.  His last start came 10 days ago and that could be a major problem considering his 0-6 TSR when working on more than six days rest this season. There was the issue with the innings limit that reared its ugly head at the end of the regular season. Note his longest break in between starts (10 days off) resulted in disaster for the Mets (lost 11-2 to the Yankees). 

I concede to you that I went against the Royals in every game in the ALCS. But that had more to do w/ the opponent than any kind of lack of respect towards KC.  I am surprised that they were able to oust Toronto and there has been some good fortune go their way in these playoffs. But it should be pointed out that they held the Blue Jays, who had MLB's best offense all year, to three runs or less four times, including all three games here at spacious Kauffman Stadium. The home field edge should matter here as the Mets haven't visited since '04 and the Royals also have the edge in Interleague Play this year, going 13-7 vs. the NL while the Mets were just 9-11 vs. the AL.  KC also is 56-31 in home games.  Edinson Volquez gets the starting nod here for Game 1 and not only has the team won 23 of his 36 starts this season (13-4 at home!), but he was outstanding in his one ALCS start here at home, delivering six shutout innings of two-hit ball.  10* Kansas City

10* Over Pistons/Hawks (8:05 ET):  Atlanta is being projected for one of the steepest declines in the league this year. A 60-win club a year ago (top seed in the East), linesmakers are projecting them to win only about 50 times in 2015-16.  One of the primary reasons for that is the loss of their top defender, DeMarre Carroll.  The team allowed just 94.7 points per game at home last year, a number that will be awfully difficult to duplicate this season. Though the opponent was Cleveland, we saw how the Hawks struggled defensively w/o Carroll in the Eastern Conference Finals.  Against a team like Detroit, who now will be looking to push the pace, I see the Over cashing in the season opener Tuesday night.

The Pistons did not shoot the ball well at all last season as they were at 43.2 percent overall, one of the lowest marks in the entire league (only three teams were worse).  They should be better this year offensively, but just how much is up for debate.  One thing is for certain and that's this was a much better team after they dumped Josh Smith, going .500 after his release and they were eighth in the league offensively over the final 16 games. Much of the credit there goes to Reggie Jackson, who meshed well w/ the team's best player, Andre Drummond.  It's clear now that HC Stan Van Gundy has remade this roster in a similar fashion to his previous (successful stint) in Orlando. While it's "only Preseason," the Pistons did just drop 115 points on the Hawks in the finale on Friday.

The last four times these teams have met in Atlanta, the Under has cashed.  That includes two games last year where they combined for just 188 and 175 total points.  But this one should be different.   The Pistons were awful at shooting the basketball in those two losses, making a combined 36.4 percent of all attempts, including a horrible 13 of 56 from three-point range.  Even the Hawks, one of the league's better three-point shooting clubs (thanks to Kyle Korver) were only 14 of 54 from behind the arc in those same two games, which is very uncharacteristic.  The Pistons left a ton of points on the board last year at the FT line, something that can easily be corrected. Atlanta averaged 102.4 PPG at home last year.  10* Over Pistons/Hawks

10* Over Blue Jackets/Devils (7:05 ET):  The big news in Columbus is that they finally got off the schneid w/ a 4-3 win over Colorado on Saturday.  Still though, they have managed to allow at least three goals in every game this season as goaltending has been a major issue. Opponents are scoring on 15.2% of shot attempts, an alarmingly high number, and as a result the Blue Jackets are allowing a league worst 4.4 goals per game. That makes the Over here a solid value as for just the second time this season, we're getting a 5.0 for a Blue Jackets' game. They are 6-3 Over to this point and there's been only one game so far this season where there wasn't five total goals scored.

New Jersey is coming off B2B high-scoring games itself, both wins.  In fact, the Devils come into tonight on a four-game win streak, including road wins over Ottawa and Buffalo by respective scores of 5-4 and 4-3.  They'd opened the year by scoring only six goals in four consecutive losses, but have since turned it around w/ 14 goals in their four wins.  Their power play (22.2 percent) ranks in the top 10 so far, although it's just 2 for 12 during the win streak.  Sticking w/ special teams, the Devils' PK has not been very good as opponents have converted on 27.6% of all chances w/ the man advantage, the sixth highest percentage in the league. 

These teams met four times last season and the total pushed three times (five goals scored each time).  However, this year the goaltending hasn't been as sharp, particularly on the Columbus end of things w/ Sergei Bobrovsky posting a 4.45 goals against average and .852 save percentage in seven starts this season. Even in the team's first victory Saturday night, he made only 24 saves.  Blue Jackets' opponents scored four or more goals in each of the team's first seven games this season. On the other end of the ice, look for Columbus to test New Jersey's Cory Schneider as they've averaged an impressive 36.3 shots per game in division contests.  Take the Over.  10* Over Blue Jackets/Devils

10* Baltimore (8:30 ET):  The decline of the Ravens has been shocking, but clearly you can point to the fact that every game has been close (decided by six points or less). Thus, when I look at this number, I see the linesmakers calling for something that has yet to happen, that being a Baltimore loss by more than one score.  As strong as Arizona has looked at times this year, their four wins have come at the expense of New Orleans, Chicago (lost Cutler to injury), San Francisco and Detroit, all bad teams.  The Ravens might be 1-5, but they are not in the same class as those aformentioned teams. They had the total yards edge in two of their five losses and probably should be .500.  As was the case w/ the Cardinals, turnovers were the story in last week's loss.  I expect another close game here.   Take the points.

Arizona is off a very tough loss last week in Pittsburgh (outgained them 469-310), but were -3 in turnovers, resulting in a season low 13 points.  Remember that Baltimore's lone win this season came at the expense of the Steelers. As I pointed out in last week's analysis on the Under for Cardinals-Steelers (winning ticket!), Arizona has benefited from an abundance of non-offensive touchdowns so far, which is unsustainable. They are -6 in turnovers in their two losses, which I'm not surprised about because there have been games like the one vs. Detroit when they were +6 in TO margin.  The Cardinals offense would take a major hit if WR John Brown, their best downfield threat, did not play here.  Having covered 66 percent of their games under HC Bruce Arians, Arizona is due to take a hit. This line is clearly inflated.

Baltimore is in a do or die situation here, so we know we're going to get their best shot. A loss here would effectively end their season. After this, they do play three consecutive home games against San Diego, Jacksonville and St. Louis, so it's not out of the realm of possibility that they can fight their way back into the Wild Card race in an AFC that is top-heavy, but has little beyond the three unbeaten teams. The Ravens are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS on Monday nights the L4 seasons and have been a dog of a touchdown or more just five times under HC John Harbaugh, going 4-1 ATS in those contests.  10* Baltimore

10* Over Coyotes/Maple Leafs (7:35 ET):  Nobody is expecting a thing from either of these two downtrodden clubs this season, so it's no surprise to see Toronto at 1-6.  Arizona at 4-3-1 is a bit surprising, though they had dropped four in a row prior to Saturday's 4-1 win in Ottawa as +155 ML dogs.  That was the third game this season where the 'Yotes had scored four times (all wins), although they were outshot 36-26 and continue to allow one of the highest shot totals in the entire league entering play on Monday (32.6 per game). Meanwhile, it was the opposite story for the Leafs their last time out on the ice as they dropped a tough one to Montreal despite a massive 52-27 edge in shots. This one should be high-scoring. Take the Over.

For years, advanced stats hated Toronto and sure enough their shortcomings in puck possession led to the franchise's downfall.  But this year has brought about a pleasant surprise in terms of both Corsi and Fenwick where they rank fifth and third respectively in the entire league. Not only did they have a massive edge in terms of shots on goal Saturday in Montreal, but in two home games this season they've averaged a whopping 39 shots per game. Save for their only win of the season (vs. Columbus) and a 5-4 loss to Ottawa, the increase in possession and shots hasn't necessarily translated into a ton of goals, but I'd say they're coming. In home games where the total is 5.5, the Over is 39-27 for Toronto the past three seasons. 

In last season's visit to Toronto, it was Arizona holding a massive 45-25 edge in shots in a 3-1 win.  In six of eight games this season, either the Coyotes or their opponents have scored four goals. Arizona has been very fortunate to allow just 1.8 goals per game on the road this season (five games) as they are allowing 33.2 shots per game.  That's a 5.4 shot percentage, a number far too low to sustain. Earlier in this analysis, I mentioned Toronto's improved possession and numbers, but the bottom line is they are still allowing 3.4 goals and 29.6 shots.  Neither power play has done much so far this season, so little to this point, that an increase should be expected. 10* Over Coyotes/Maple Leafs

8* Los Angeles (9:35 ET): After an ugly start to the season (opened w/ three straight home losses), the Kings have turned it around by winning each of their L4 games, allowing just three total goals in the process.  They certainly seem to be a bit undervalued tonight heading into Edmonton, an opponent they've beaten seven of the last nine times they've played. The Oilers' season has played out somewhat similarly to that of the Kings as they lost their first four games, only to come back & win the next three. But they lost their last time out, giving up seven goals in a rout at the hands of Washington, here at home. I like the Kings to continue their mastery of their division rivals here.

A big reason why LA has done so well against Edmonton in the past is goaltender Jonathan Quick. He's 9-0-2 his L11 starts against the Oilers w/ a 1.34 goals against average. Quick was not in net for the final meeting of last season, an Edmonton win. But he was in net Friday vs. Carolina for a 40-save shutout, improving his save percentage to a sterling .965 his L4 starts overall. He's been huge because uncharacteristically, the Kings have given up a lot of shots the L2 games (80 total). Fortunately for them, however, the Oilers rank near the bottom of the league in that department w/ only 26.5 per game.

Edmonton has Connor McDavid, but still aways to go in my eyes until it's a true contender. They've been outshot in virtually every game and while the discrepancy tends to be a little more even at home compared to the road, it's unlikely that they'll be able to dominate possession of the puck in this matchup as that's a battle the Kings win more often than not. Situationally, things do not look good for the Oilers in this one as they are a horrendous 14-46 vs. division opponents the L3 seasons, not to mention 1-11 in home games where the total is 5.0.  Furthermore, they are 11-33 coming off a game where they scored 4+ goals. 8* Los Angeles

10* Philadelphia (8:30 ET): The Eagles treated me well Monday night, dominating the Giants 27-7 and now turn to another primetime affair, this one against the unbeaten Panthers. In my MNF analysis, I laid out a case that Chip Kelly's team was far better than its overall record and they backed me up w/ a second straight winning ticket. I had them in Week 5 as well when they blew out New Orleans at home, 39-17, rolling up 34 first downs and 500+ total yards. That game could have been even more lopsided had QB Sam Bradford not thrown two INT's in the endzone. The total yardage was equally dominant in the Eagles favor vs. the Giants, 425-249.  This is also a chance to "sell high" on Carolina, who is coming off a shocking, last-second win in Seattle. Take the points.

Philly hasn't really been blown out this year w/ two of their three losses coming by a field goal. They'll certainly be comfortable in the current price range as during Kelly's tenure they are a perfect 4-0 against the spread as a road underdog of three points or less. Turnovers have been an issue thus far for the Eagles, but that can be rectified. Just like the running game has been; the last two weeks have seen them go for 341 yards over land. In fact, in the team's three wins, they have averaged just under 37 rush attempts for 154.5 yards, basically last week's exact output.  Knowing that, look for Kelly to establish the run here.  Also, this Eagles defense has quietly been very good. They rank second, in terms of efficiency, trailing only the Jets.

The teams met just last year. It was all Eagles in a 45-21 beatdown that they led by as many as 38 points.  At the time, the Panthers were playing poorly; they were in the midst of a six-game losing streak. This year is obviously a different story, but remember that Carolina hadn't exactly played a challenging schedule the first four weeks. Three of their five wins have been by seven points or less. They were off a bye going into last week's game. Their offense ranks just 28th in yards per game (334.2).  The current number of unbeaten teams around the league remains high and you just get the feeling some are about to fall off the list.  10* Philadelphia

10* NY Jets (1:00 ET):  The Jets have a history of playing the Patriots tough (4-0 ATS the L2 seasons!) and there is no denying that this year's edition of the Flyboys is the strongest yet during that time frame. Clearly, Geno Smith's broken jaw was the best thing that could have happened to this team as Ryan Fitzpatrick has stepped in and given them above average play at the QB position while the rest of the roster is surprisingly stacked with talent. This is the ONLY team in the league to have outgained every opponent this season and they look like a real bargain getting this many points for a division game, which more often than not, end up being close.  They bring in what is by most measures, the best defense in the entire league. Take the points.

The Jets have many of the characteristics that you look for in a live dog. One is that defense. They are giving up the fewest points (15.0) and yards (269) per game, not to mention the fewest yards per play (4.4) and they've forced the most turnovers. Improved play at the cornerback position, due mostly to bringing Darrelle Revis back, is responsible for the stellar marks. The secondary comes into this game fully healthy.  That should serve them well against what is generally regarded as the league's best offense.  On the other side of the ball, RB Chris Ivory leads the league w/ 115.5 rushing yards per game. That obviously helps alleviate the pressure on Fitzpatrick and furthermore should allow the Jets to control the ball in this game.

The only game which the Jets lost this year was to the Eagles and can mainly be pinned on four turnovers. They actually outgained Philly 323-231 and since then have rolled over both Miami (425-226 in total yds) and Washington (474-225), winning by a combined 27 pts. They really dominated the Redskins worse than the final scored showed as they were up 34-13 before a punt was blocked and returned for a TD late.  New York now has a top five point differential in the entire league at +54.   The comparisons of this Patriots team to the 2007 version that went unbeaten until the Super Bowl seem a little far-fetched from where I sit.  Three of their wins have been by eight points or less and the only two blowouts came against Jacksonville and Dallas (no Romo). This will be the first time that the Pats are facing a pass defense ranked higher than 17th. Those last four matchups between these two have all been decided by a field goal or less.  10* NY Jets

10* Over Vikings/Lions (1:00 ET):  All this talk of more offense in the league apparently has yet to reach Minnesota where the Vikings stand as the league's only 5-0 Under team. They are neither averaging (19.2) nor allowing (16.6) more than 20 points per game, which is a fairly remarkable achievement in the modern NFL.  Interestingly, one of their higher scoring outputs this season came back in Week 2 (26 pts) against a Lions team they'll face again this week. The Minnesota offense rolled up a season best 350 yards in that game, yet for a fourth straight time a Vikings-Lions game stayed Under the total. Not this time though.  Take the Over.

Detroit is coming off not just their first win of the season, but what was also - by far - their best offensive game of the season (546 total yards) in a 37-34 overtime win over the division rival Bears.  Over the previous three games, these Lions had faced some really tough defenses: Denver, Seattle and Arizona.  They didn't fare much better in Wk 2 against Minnesota (323 total yds), but the good news here is TE Eric Ebron is expected to be back on the field after missing the last two games. The Lions rushing attack had been dormant for the first five games, but went for 155 yards on 32 carries last week, which is hopefully a sign of things to come. Also of note is that offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi moved to the press box last week and that seemed to have a positive effect on the playcalling. 

Minnesota's offense seems to lack an explosive capability, but you have to figure that RB Adrian Peterson will improve upon last week's dismal showing when he carried the ball 26 times for only 60 yards, including a horrific first half when his 16 carries led to only 17 yards.  In Wk 2 vs. the Lions, however, he went for 134 yards on 29 carries and no player since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger has a higher average of rushing yards per game in division games than Peterson's 113.7.   The Vikings' passing game seems to be improving as second year QB Teddy Bridgewater threw for 140 yards in the first quarter LW vs. the Chiefs and rookie Stefon Diggs replacing the ineffective Charles Johnson as a starting receiver seems to have paid dividends. The bottom line here is that Minnesota is "due" for an Over. 10* Over Vikings/Lions

10* Kansas City (1:00 ET):  So, it will be third-stringer Landry Jones going for Pittsburgh in this one and even though the Steelers come in as a slight dog, I still think there's some substantial value here on the other side.  While everyone has been quick to laud Jones for his play in relief of the ineffective Mike Vick, it's tough to like a QB making his first career start on the road. The Chiefs are actually much better than their record shows as they've taken on a relatively challenging schedule to this point and actually won the total yardage battle in half of their games. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has been outgained in four of six games and arguably was very lucky to win its last two.  Regression rears its head in this one as KC finally breaks through. Lay the points.

The Chiefs actually slightly outgained Minnesota (328-321) in the 16-10 loss last week despite being shutout for three quarters.  Predictably, they struggled initially to move the chains w/o Jamaal Charles (out for the season). Encouraging is that their defense has bounced back w/ B2B solid performances after not looking very good against Denver, Green Bay and Cincinnati.  While on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak, three of the defeats have been close.  Other than Green Bay and Cincinnati, both road games, Kansas City could have won every game this year.  This is the worst start to a season ever in Andy Reid's coaching career and even if it's just for one week, I expect to see the Chiefs team we all expected to get at the beginning of the year. 

Though they beat a very good Arizona team last week, 25-13, the Steelers should feel quite fortunate as they were outgained 469-310 and out first downed, 21-14.  A +3 turnover margin was the real story there, not Landry Jones.  The week previous, the Steelers were outgained by San Diego 406-349 and -10 in first downs. With Vick at the helm, the offense really struggled, and honestly I don't expect much improvement w/ Jones now in there.  I expect the Chiefs defense to play well.  The Steelers have had somewhat of a challenging schedule to this point, having to alternate road and home games.  Look for Jones to struggle in his first career start in what is somewhat of a lookahead for Pittsburgh, the week before playing division leader Cincinnati.  10* Kansas City

8* Vancouver (10:05 ET):  Again, we're taking advantage of another unrested opponent here, that being Detroit, who really let me down last night as they blew a third period lead and lost in overtime. This will be the Red Wings third road game in four nights, all in Western Canada, and so far they have gone 0-2 against Edmonton and Calgary. As alluded to, they did lead the Flames last night, 2-1 as late as 18:48 into the third period.  But they gave up the game-tying goal and then lost 3 vs. 3, which makes this a very difficult spot to get up for.   The Canucks, who are on a losing streak themselves, had Friday off and should be ready to go here. They are my choice to get the two points here.

The advanced metrics, Corsi and Fenwick, do not like the Red Wings at all right now. They are being outshot 33.6 to 23.6 on a per game basis thus far, which is downright ugly, and the numbers look even worse out on the road where they are allowing an alarming 39.0 shots per game.  Goaltender Jimmy Howard really kept them in the game last night as they were outshot 40-29, including 16-4 in the second period alone.  With this being the second game of a back to back, Howard will likely be unavailable, thus Petr Mrazek will be called into duty.  Mrazek has given up three goals in all three starts thus far. During its current four-game losing streak, Detroit has been outshot badly three times (by double digits).  In their first road game of the year, they were outshot 47-19 by Carolina.

Vancouver has not yet won at home.  They too enter this game on a losing streak (three straight), all at home, but all were by just one goal.  Not since 1984-85 have the Canucks lost four in a row at home to open a season.  So history says they're certainly "due."  Their season would certainly look a lot better if not for a pair of overtime losses as they've yet to be beaten by more than one goal in any game.  Remember that the Red Wings are still w/o center Pavel Datsyuk, a major loss, and they have yet to win w/ him not in the lineup.  This is just a terrible situation for the visiting team and I expect the Canucks to take advantage.  8* Vancouver

8* St. Louis (8:05 ET):  The Blues lost a showdown against a top Eastern Conference club (Montreal) earlier in the week, but they've certainly had an adequate time to get over that defeat (three days) and they get this one at home.  Being back on home ice has to be a thrill for St. Louis, who has not played here at the Scottrade Center since the season opener. That was a 3-1 win over Edmonton, but tonight brings a far greater challenge in the form of the Islanders. Fortunately though, New York finds itself playing in the second night of back to backs as they fell last night at home (as big -180 ML favorites) to Boston.  That makes this a tough spot for the Isles to play what is just their third road game of the season.

New York's only road win this year came at the expense of Columbus, who is of course still winless. They've finished w/ the edge in shots in only two games all season and lost their only previous time playing w/o rest, that being on the road in the second game of a home and home w/ Chicago.  Last night marked a season-low w/ only 26 shots.  In goal, the team likely must turn to backup Thomas Greiss as Jaroslav Halak is still battling an injury and was in net last night.  The Isles have lost five straight to the Blues, getting outscored 25-12 in the process, and have not won here in St. Louis since 2005. 

The Blues are 44-21 their L65 games against the Eastern Conference despite taking the loss against unbeaten Montreal earlier in the week.  They did finish that game w/ the edge in shots, however (38-36), and have been outshot in only one game all season.  They're averaging 33.5 shots per game, which places them among the league leaders in that department.  Last year, the offense came out in full force vs. the Isles, scoring six goals in both games.  This was a great home team last season (won 29 of 41 regular season games) and coming off a game where they scored one goal or less, they are 21-15.  They scored exactly four goals in four straight games before being shut out by the Habs Tuesday. I look for a big bounce back here and for them to take advantage of an unrested opponent.  8* St. Louis

10* USC (7:30 ET):  It's telling when an unranked team that is two weeks removed from an embarrassing situation where it had to fire its coach is still favored over the #3 ranked team in the entire nation, but that speaks to the talent level here at Southern Cal. We've also already seen a precedent this week (w/ UCLA smashing Cal) of an unranked foe justifying itself laying points to a ranked opponent.  While Utah may be far more formidable than Cal is, that doesn't change the fact that before Steve Sarkisian was fired, USC was still being talked about as the favorite to win the Pac 12 South.  This is a huge revenge game for the Trojans, who lost 24-21 as one-point dogs LY in Salt Lake, and I see them getting their first win for interim HC Clay Helton after coming up just short last week in South Bend.  Lay the points.

It is interesting to note that Utah is the highest ranked team to be an underdog to an unranked foe in the last 20 seasons.  Road teams came into the week at 12-8 straight up in Pac 12 play so far, but again, we saw what happened Thursday night across town at UCLA.  It's not as if this 6-0 start from the Utes has been w/o close calls.  Two weeks ago, despite forcing six turnovers, they still only beat California 30-24 at home. They were actually outgained in that game (467-435) and led by only three heading into the fourth quarter. Then, last week against Arizona State (also at home), they trailed 18-14 heading into the 4Q and it remained a one score game until 4:20 was left on the clock. Most interesting is that these two have the same scoring differential this season (+102) despite the vastly different records. USC actually rates far better in terms of yards per game vs. opponents (+108 vs. +27) and has only been outgained in one game all year while Utah has been outgained three times!  This is a disturbing trend for the Utes, who were actually last in YPG difference in the entire Pac 12 a season ago!

It's not as if USC's season is over as they are still in control of their own destiny in the Pac 12 South.  The offense certainly had little difficulty moving the ball LW vs. Notre Dame, rolling up 590 total yards. On the road, they led the Irish by a touchdown going into the final quarter. Cody Kessler is the better overall quarterback in this matchup.   Last year vs the Utes saw the Trojans give up the GW touchdown in the final ten seconds. I'm sure that they remember and motivation should be very high here for the 1st game since the Sarkisian firing.  Utah has lost its last six visits to the Coliseum by a total of 134 points.  10* USC

8* Puck Line Toronto (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Maple Leafs +1.5.  This is the first instance of the year when the puck line is available at this price as we have unbeaten Montreal hosting the Maple Leafs. In the entire storied history of the Canadiens franchise, they have never had as good a start as this one as they are 8-0 w/ a +21 goal differential following last night's dominating 7-2 win over Buffalo. But this being the second night of back to backs makes them somewhat susceptible to being upset and the Leafs have revenge for a 3-1 loss opening night.  This time, it will be closer w/ either a one-goal loss or outright win by the road team.

Toronto was expected to struggle this year and struggle they have.  But they have earned a point in three of the last four games, including their only win of the season, 6-3 over Columbus.  All three losses during that time came by exactly one goal, two of them in a shootout.  One thing you have to like about the Maple Leafs under Mike Babcock is that their puck possession has been a lot better. They even rank in the top eight in the league in Fenwick, a huge improvement over past editions when they would be at the bottom of the league.  In fact, in the season opener vs. the Habs, it was the Leafs that actually finished w/ the edge in shots on goal, 37-29.  Goaltender Jonathan Bernier has been solid so far w/ a .925 save percentage and should keep his team in this one.

Montreal continues to lean on Carey Price, who has allowed just six goals in six games. That's coming off an amazing 2014-15 season and I wonder if a little regression might be in the cards.  Quite simply, the level at which Price has played at these last two seasons is very difficult to maintain. It's too bad he wasn't between the pipes last night as that means Toronto will have to deal w/ him here.  But note that going against Price each of the last five meetings, the Maple Leafs have lost by only one goal three times. Having been off for two days, the Leafs have been pointing towards this rematch from Opening Night and I think they'll compete to the very end.  8* Puck Line Toronto (+1.5)

10* Louis Smolka (5:30 ET): This was not the original main event for the show, but Irishman Joseph Duffy pulled out of his scheduled bout with Dustin Poirier earlier this week. Thus, we have the first three round UFC main event in some time. Don't discount the importance of this fact as in this instance, I think the better wrestler (Smolka) will benefit greatly as it will be theoretically easier to score a decision victory.  This wasn't even originally supposed to be second from the top on the card, but injuries have left them going on last and it will be interesting to see how each fighter reacts. Paddy Holohan will have the crowd support, but Smolka has beaten an Irish fighter before (UFC 189) and I don't think he'll be intimidated by the hostile territory.  He's my pick.

I rate Smolka as the better striker here as overall he's a more coordinated fighter on his feet and uses his length better. Holohan often needlessly expends a lot of energy while not doing much damage.  That cost him in his October 2014 fight against Chris Kelades (lost unanimous decision). He's since bounced back w/ B2B decision victories this year, but this will be his toughest competition in the UFC to date.

When this fight inevitably goes to the ground, it will be advantage Smolka there as well. He is very skilled on the ground w/ his jiu-jitsu background and works more efficiently to get into a position to submit his opponent.  Like Holohan, Smolka has tasted defeat just one time and it came three fights ago.  But his was a split decision and he stopped an opponent in his B2B wins since.  Prior to coming to the UFC, Smolka finished all six opponents he had faced, four by submission and two by TKO.   Even in hostile territory, the better fighter will take care of business.  10* Louis Smolka

8* SMU (4:00 ET): At first glance, SMU's defensive numbers look downright ugly (45.2 PPG allowed!), but when you consider they've already taken on both Baylor and TCU (not to mention Houston as well), it's all a little bit easier to digest.  Remember that I took the Mustangs in their most recent game, which will have been 16 days ago, when the ball is kicked off Saturday afternoon here in Tampa. They covered their last game, losing "only" by 21 to a pretty good (and still unbeaten) Houston squad (were tied until two seconds left in the 1H), so rested and ready I like their chances here taking double digits against a USF squad that really has no business being in this price range.  Offense is typically not the Bulls' forte and last year these teams played to a 14-13 final. Take the points.

When we last checked in w/ USF, I was playing the Under on their game vs. Memphis. That play cashed easily (by 17 points!) as the Bulls lost 24-17. At the time, that made it 18 times in the L21 games under HC Willie Taggart that the offense failed to break 17 points (vs. FBS competition).  So, as I said earlier, this is hardly the candidate to be laying double digits against anybody. However, the Bulls did explode for 45 pts the following week in a win over Syracuse and then last week put up 28 more in a somewhat surprising win at UConn.  USF was outgained though LW in Storrs (528-461) and was -9 in first downs. This is the first time since October of 2013, very early in Taggart's tenure, that USF has posted B2B victories.  Their last win streak of three or more games came all the way back in 2011  when they opened 4-0 SU.

As mentioned above, it was a one-point game LY in Dallas between these two and SMU actually led that game 13-0 entering the fourth quarter. Despite blowing said lead, the Mustangs still easily covered the number, which was the last time USF happened to be laying double digits.  In the first year under HC Chad Morris, SMU is very clearly better than they were a year ago (when they were outscored by 30 PPG) even if that has yet to really show in the standings. But, Morris should have his team ready to go after such a long time to prepare and this will actually be one of their weakest opponents to date. 8* SMU

8* Virginia Tech (3:30 ET):  This is yet another instance of an unranked team laying points to a Top 25 opponent this week.  Duke has been a real "pointspread juggernaut" for HC David Cutcliffe these last three seasons, going 24-9 ATS overall including an amazing 10-2 on the road (11-1 straight up!).  The Blue Devils are a rested team this week (6-0 ATS L6 in that situation), but the trouble is they have to visit Blacksburg where they have won only once all-time (two years ago as a 12-pt dog). In fact, that's Duke's ONLY win in 14 all-time meetings w/ the Hokies. The home team now has its starting QB back under center and despite a disappointing start to the season, I see them getting back on track.  Lay the points.

Duke is 2-0 in ACC play, but both wins were shaky as they were outgained each time. It was a 316-279 total yardage deficit in a 34-20 win over Georgia Tech, then the offense failed to score a touchdown in a 9-7 win over Boston College (-77 in total yards). They've really bullied some bad teams en route to this 5-1 SU start, but this will arguably be their toughest opponent to date, especially w/ Michael Brewer back under center for Va Tech. Brewer, in his first action since the collarbone injury vs. Ohio State, almost led the Hokies back last week against Miami.  Unfortunately, the starter (Brenden Motley) put the team into too big of an early hole w/ multiple turnovers that led to 10 points for the Hurricanes, the difference in the game. Remember that w/ Brewer under center, the Hokies led Ohio State 17-14 at halftime, here at home in the season opener.

In addition to the turnovers (-4 margin), Virginia Tech really got burned last week by allowing Miami to score a touchdown at the end of each half.  The defense really had shown signs the previous two games, holding Pitt & NC State to a combined 30 points and 546 total yards. Both of those games were here in Blacksburg. Meanwhile, there is a big concern for the Duke defense w/ starting DE Kyler Brown out due to a knee injury. The Hokies beat a ranked Blue Devils squad last year, in Durham, 17-16 as four-point dog. Look for history to repeat itself this Saturday.  8* Virginia Tech

10* Ball State (3:00 ET):  Central Michigan, who is 7-0 ATS (ONLY team in the country) and covering the spread by an average of over 10 points per game, really "got one over" on me last week when they absolutely drubbed Buffalo 44-7 in Mount Pleasant.  One might think such a result would lead to a drastic reappraisal of the Chippewas, but I think a pretty clear cut case could be made that it was, in fact, their best game of the season.  The Chips, just 3-4 straight up on the season, had yet to outgain a conference foe this season and were fortunate to force four turnovers for a second time in three weeks. While it looks like this week's opponent is downtrodden, things may actually not be as bad as they seem and I'll go ahead and take the points. 

Ball State comes in on a four-game losing streak. Losses to Northwestern, Toledo and Northern Illinois are all excusable, but last week's disaster against Georgia State was not. The Cardinals, a 14-pt favorite here in Muncie, fell 31-19 while allowing 400+ yards passing.  That was arguably the ugliest setback ever under HC Pete Lembo (5th year here).  Consider that just two seasons ago this team went 6-0 SU here at Scheumann Stadium.  The offense didn't have much of a problem last week; they gained 372 yards and 25 first downs. They were also within five points with under three minutes remaining.  I'm expecting a big bounce back this weekend from BSU, who was supposed to be better than this and projected by most to finish ahead of CMU in the MAC West standings.

Central Michigan had not been favored over a FBS opponent this year prior to last week. Now they're coming in as a road favorite.  That's a role they've gone a shocking 4-0 ATS in the previous two seasons, but never have they been asked to lay this many points at the betting window. The Chips have also lost five straight times to Ball State, by an average of 10 PPG, including LY's 32-29 setback as 10-point home favorites.  Similarly, Ball State has not been a home dog of this size in three-plus seasons. They were only +5.5 vs. still unbeaten Toledo! So this is a great value by comparison.  CMU allows over 150 rushing YPG while BSU averages 174 rushing YPG on offense. Remember that Central Michigan didn't even have a coach on signing day back in January. They are winless on the road (0-3) and that loss to Western Michigan wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated.  10* Ball State

8* Massachusetts (3:00 ET):  Toledo is unbeaten and favored to win the MAC, but this is a tricky spot laying so many points on the road w/ the biggest game of the year (Nov 3 vs. Northern Illinois) on deck.  This game takes place at Gillette Stadium, home of the NFL's Patriots, where UMass already took still-unbeaten Temple to the limit (probably should have won that game!) and is probably due for some kind of breakthrough performance. More was expected from the Minutemen this year as they brought back 19 starters from last year's squad, a team that lost five times by a TD or less.  They have again struggled in close games in 2015 (0-2), including last week's 15-10 loss to Kent State, but I still see them keeping it close here. Take the points.

Last year saw UMass fall 42-35 in Toledo as 17-point dogs, so you can see there's some pretty decent line value here due to the public jumping all over the unbeaten Rockets. Of course, I don't want to undersell the fact that Toledo is better this year nor that they're still unbeaten against the spread. But they did just lose leading tackler Jaylen Coleman for the rest of the season (broken leg) and this Rockets' defense has certainly been leaky at times, allowing 450+ yards three times.  Last year, they gave up nearly 500 yards to UMass, almost all of it coming through the air as QB Blake Frohnapfel threw 5 TD passes. This is Toledo's highest ranking (#19!) in 18 seasons and they are just 11-9 SU on the road under HC Matt Campbell.  I'm interested to see how the team now performs w/ a spotlight on them.

UMass is off a season-low 297 yards of total offense in last week's outright loss to Kent State. They were shutout in the second half, but the good news is that their defense seems to be improving as they gave up just one touchdown in the loss.  Here at home, they've been far more competitive than on the road w/ their two losses coming by a combined seven points. Having already played Temple, Notre Dame and Bowling Green, I don't think the Minutemen are going to be intimidated by the unbeaten Rockets. Again, it's going to be very hard for Toledo not to "peek ahead" to their biggest game of the year, 10 days from now vs. Northern Illinois. 8* Massachusetts

10* Miami (FL):  Clemson's path to an unbeaten regular season appears clearer than most with a showdown in Death Valley (vs. Florida State) two weeks from now certainly looking like the biggest hurdle. Dabo Swinney's Tigers have been quite impressive to this point, including B2B wins over Georgia Tech and Boston College where the offense rolled up 530 yards both times!  But this will only be their second road game of the season; their first (at Louisville) was a three-point game (I took the points w/ L'ville!) and it's important to note that under Swinney they've lost at least one road game every season. Yes, they've beaten 34 straight unranked opponents, but I think Miami is better than most people think and a good value plus the points at home.

Before the season, I was pretty shocked that Miami was being projected for only 5.5 wins. I jumped on the Over as even despite the disappointing returns of the Al Golden era, the team has never won fewer than six games in a season. Right now, they are 4-2 and coming off an impressive 30-20 win over Virginia Tech here in Coral Gables. Their two losses, both relatively close, came on the road to Cincinnati and Florida State. I can make the case that this is the best offense that Clemson will have faced to date, Notre Dame included.  Remember that the Irish outgained the Tigers in that game, rather severely (437-296) w/ backup QB DeShone Kizer throwing for 321 yards. Miami QB Brad Kaaya threw for over 400 yds against Florida State & is 5th in the country in pass efficiency. He has a 10-1 TD-INT ratio and has thrown for nearly 1800 yards.  He's gone 125 attempts w/o an INT.  He should have a big afternoon here.

The Hurricanes' defense is now w/o its leading tackler Raphael Kirby for the remainder of the season. That's rough, but this unit as a whole has been outstanding at forcing turnovers. "The U" leads the nation in turnover margin (+13) and was +4 in that department last week. I mentioned earlier that Kaaya hasn't thrown an interception since the third game, so it stands to reason the 'Canes should win the turnover battle here, something they have done in every game this season. Also, the defense is one of only two in the country not to have allowed a single point off a turnover this year.   Clemson has failed to cover each of the last four times it has been a road favorite (just 3-7 ATS L10 road games overall).  10* Miami (FL)

10* Detroit (9:05 ET): This shapes up as a "get well" game for the Red Wings, who have lost three straight after opening 3-0.  When taking the schedule into account, I'd say that winning tonight is most imperative as they are in the midst of the dreaded three-game trek through Western Canada and will have to play in Vancouver tomorrow night.  The Flames should make for a favorable "dance partner" as well considering they've lost four in a row and only Columbus has a worse goal differential right now.  Given the current sorry state of the Blue Jackets, that's a pretty damning place to be in the league's pecking order. All five of their losses this year have come in regulation and they just allowed six goals in their last game.

Calgary was a team that overachieved last year, so regression was somewhat inevitable for 2015-16.  But troubling is the fact that they've been blown out in four of their five losses, including each of the L3 games.  Not surprisingly, the only game in which they had the edge in shots is the one they won, that being an OT game vs. Vancouver.  They've often been decidedly outshot in each of their losses and in the L4 games have averaged just a measly 20.25 shots per game.  Not surprisingly, they again rank near the bottom of the league in both Corsi and Fewick (were last in both categories among playoff teams last year). But the real issue has been goaltending as both regulars had a save percentage below .880. Karri Ramo was waived yday, leaving Jonas Hiller to do all the heavy lifting. Hiller allowed five goals on 28 shots his last time out and has a 3.72 goals against average thus far.

The advanced stats don't really like Detroit right now either, but at least they can fall back on the fact they played well in the first three games of the season. They have struggled to put the puck on net themselves, specifically in a 4-1 loss at Montreal on Saturday (just 19 shots).  They did outshoot Edmonton by the slightest of margins (29-28) Wednesday, but going 0 for 6 on the power play doomed them in a 3-1 setback. The Red Wings have won their last two visits here and have taken three of the past four matchups w/ the Flames overall. 10* Detroit

8* Toronto (8:05 ET): I've been on Toronto in every game of this series so far and see no reason to "shift course" (yet) as I'll take them here to force a deciding Game 7 on Saturday. Though on the road, the Blue Jays remain the favorites (as they've been for every game in the series).  The big story is starter David Price, still winless in his postseason career (0-8 TSR w/ a 5.12 ERA).  That's as shocking as anything I've ever seen considering the way Price pitched since coming over from Detroit, not to mention throughout his entire career.  This is the American League's ERA leader, after all. There is a "first time for everything," however, and for Price I feel that elusive win comes Friday night as there were some encouraging signs in Game 2. 

Price will be working on six full days rest here, so that's good, especially after manager John Gibbons kind of, sort of mismanaged his usage in the LDS.  As stated earlier, Price showed signs of turning it around in Game 2 of this series. In fact, he was downright masterful for six innings, allowing just one hit w/ an 8-0 KW ratio. Unfortunately, staked to a 3-0 lead, things then fell apart in the seventh when he allowed five consecutive hits and the Royals would go on to score five runs in the frame to "steal" the game 6-3 in Toronto. It's important, I think, to note that was the Royals' fifth win in the postseason and the fourth time they rallied back from a multiple run deficit. The most notable comeback, of course, was Game 4 of the LDS in Houston when their season was just six outs away from being over. Including Wednesday's 7-1 loss, Kansas City has now trailed by multiple runs in all but ONE game (Gm 1 of this series) this postseason!

While Price's ERA over his L3 starts (6.75) reflects his struggles, his WHIP (1.071) over that same timeframe shows that he's actually pitching better than you might think.  Working 18 2/3 innings, he's allowed just 20 baserunners. Unfortunately, 15 of them have found a way to score. For the second time in the series, Price will be opposed by Yordano Ventura.  Interestingly, Ventura's ERA over his L3 starts is similarly poor (6.57), but his WHIP (1.784) is significantly worse.  Remember that Toronto was the better team all year (+224 run differential in the regular season) and they are 18-7 when taking the field w/ a day off, including 3-0 in elimination games in the postseason. 8* Toronto

10* Under Blue Jays/Royals (8:05 ET):  Game 5 snapped a three-game Over streak in this series as Kansas City was held to just one run on four hits by the wildly underrated Marco Estrada.  The scene now shifts back to Kauffman Stadium and as we know Toronto's offense is significantly less prolific on the road compared to the damage it does at Rogers Centre.  Honestly, this entire postseason has been somewhat of a disappointment for the Blue Jays at the plate as their league leading offense has been reduced to a .228 team batting average w/ a slash line of .295 (OBP)/.392 (slugging)/.687 (OPS). If they are to force a deciding Game 7 on Saturday night, it will be likely have to be on David Price's back. Fortunately, I think he's up to the challenge.  Take the Under.

Price will be working on six full days rest here, so that's good, especially after manager John Gibbons somewhat mismanaged his usage in the LDS.  Though things fell apart for Price in the 7th inning of Game 2, there were signs of him turning around his past postseason woes. In fact, he was downright masterful for six innings, allowing just one hit w/ an 8-0 KW ratio.  While Price's ERA over his L3 starts (6.75) reflects his struggles, his WHIP (1.071) over that same timeframe shows that he's actually pitching better than you might think.  Working 18 2/3 innings, he's allowed just 20 baserunners. Unfortunately, 15 of them have found a way to score.  That's a rate that won't be sustained and I'll call for Price to have his best postseason outing ever here.

Helping Price here is projected decline for the Kansas City offense.  I find it interesting that the Royals are averaging 5.9 rpg this postseason considering there have been just three games (out of a possible 10) that they have produced more than eight hits.  Outside of the Game 4 outburst, they haven't exactly been walking a ton either.  I already mentioned that Price held them to one hit (no walks) through six innings in Game 2 and that in Game 5 they were held to just four hits by Estrada. As for Toronto, the number of home runs hit decreases dramatically on the road and spacious Kauffman Stadium should again limit their longball ability (none in 1st two games).  In fact, they've been homerless in four of five games at Kansas City this season. 10* Under Blue Jays/Royals

8* Under Memphis/Tulsa (8:00 ET): This is obviously a monster number, one that seems justified at first glance, but not so much when you dig deeper.  Sure, #18 Memphis comes in averaging 46.0 points per game, which is fourth best in the nation. But it was just three weeks ago exactly (on a Friday), I took them Under against an offensively inept foe, South Florida, and that game ended up being a 24-17 final. Here, we are catching the Tigers in a major letdown spot coming off perhaps the program's biggest win ever, last week at home against Ole Miss, and this game won't be at the Liberty Bowl either.  It will be in Tulsa, against a Golden Hurricane team that has gone Under three straight weeks. But that hasn't stopped the oddsmakers from hanging another high total for one of their games.  Take the Under.

When I last played the total Under for a Memphis game, they were coming off a huge 53-46 victory the previous week against Cincinnati, a contest that saw their defense allow a shocking 755 total yards of offense.  They were much stingier the following week against USF, allowing just 377.  Last week, they were back to allowing 480, but the vast majority of it came through the air and I was impressed how the Tigers' defense held Ole Miss to just 40 yards rushing on 24 carries.  The Tulsa offense they'll face here was shut out through three quarters a week ago at East Carolina and gained over half of its total yardage in three late, garbage time drives.  On a positive note, the Golden Hurricane defense stepped up in allowing just 382 yards total and one of the ECU touchdowns came on a 100-yard INT return.

Tulsa has gone Under in four of its last five games, all of which have had high totals. The three games where the O/U line closed at 71 pts or higher, the game stayed Under the total. Only twice has there been a time when there were more than 62 total points scored in a Tulsa game. Last year, playing at Memphis, they were held to 13 points and just 138 total yards until the final drive when the offense scored just its second (and final) TD for the game.  No Memphis game last year saw this many total points scored. Early in the season, it seemed as if the oddsmakers couldn't make these totals high enough, but w/ the exception of Baylor we've begun to see a reversal of that trend.  8* Under Memphis/Tulsa

10* UCLA (9:00 ET): This week finds a number of unranked teams favored to beat ranked opponents and this is one of not only two instances on the Thursday card, but four altogether on the entire Week 8 slate. In this case, I believe UCLA is being severely undervalued due to sustaining B2B losses, first to Arizona State and then to Stanford. Everyone was watching last Thursday as they got drilled by Stanford (a team they NEVER beat), 56-35 as touchdown underdogs (wasn't even that close), so I understand the skepticism here, especially since California is coming off a bye.  But the Bears are off a loss themselves, at Utah, and have been living dangerously for weeks now. This is a really great value considering where the line opened.

This is Jim Mora's 4th season in Westwood and big things were expected as the team brought back every starter from LY save for the QB position. But replacing Brett Hundley was true freshman Josh Rosen, who looked very good in his first game, throwing for 351 yards and three touchdowns against Virginia. Since then, he's predictably had his fair share of ups and downs, but still ranks fifth in the conference in terms of passing yardage per game. Rosen is only a freshman, thus growing pains are to be expected, yet Cal counterpart Jared Goff is a junior, so you have to wonder what his excuse was for a dreadful 5 INT showing against Utah two weeks ago.  Quietly, UCLA has the best pass defense in the Pac 12 (allowing just 5.9 yards per attempt & less than 50% on completions), so I wouldn't be surprised to see Goff struggle yet again.

While much of the focus here will be on the two quarterbacks, I think UCLA needs to get back to running the football.  RB Paul Perkins (681 yds, 8 TDs) had 161 total yards in LY's 36-34 win over Cal. I think he's the key to the game. Cal is not a team that is very effective in establishing the run, which plays right into the strength of this UCLA defense (which is strong against the pass, but weak against the run). I just think that the Bruins ran into a buzzsaw last week. They were once a top 10 team and have the homefield advantage, which is key here considering the road team has lost 13 of the last 15 matchups between these two. Cal was fortunate to win games over Texas, Washington and Washington State (by only a combined 13 points).  Look for UCLA to get back on track. 10* UCLA

8* Chicago (8:35 ET): Getting the Blackhawks at this relatively cheap price on the money line seems like a steal considering we know from their history that they're likely to put a ton of shots on goal here at home and visiting Florida comes in allowing 32.2 shots per game. The Stanley Cup champs should be fresh as well, having not played since Saturday when I took them in an easy 4-1 victory over winless Columbus.  The Panthers aren't that bad, but have dropped B2B games and their three wins so far came at the expense of Philadelphia, Buffalo and Carolina, three Eastern Conference also-rans. This will be a big step up in a class for them and one where they are likely to stumble again.

Both of these teams have been rather "feast or famine" this season. Chicago has allowed 10 goals in its three losses, but only four in the three wins. In those defeats, goaltender Corey Crawford has struggled, allowing 3+ goals every time despite never facing more than 30 shots.  Fortunately for tonight, he has strong career numbers vs. Florida, including a 0.91 goals against average and .925 save percentage. The Panthers are 0-4 the last two seasons vs. Chicago and have scored just four goals total in their three losses in 2015.  It seems as if the power play has been make or break for them as they are 5 for 15 w/ the man advantage in their wins, but 0 for 9 in their losses.  Chicago traditionally has one of the stronger penalty killing units in the league and that hasn't changed this year as they are at 85.7 percent, which is in the top 10.

Florida needed two late goals just to force overtime Tuesday in Pittsburgh, so they were lucky to earn the "loser's point" there. This is a team that's 23rd on the penalty kill and has allowed 33 or more shots four times already this season.  Over the previous two seasons, they are just 20-37 against the Western Conference.  Even playing w/o their top blue liner Duncan Keith, I expect the 'Hawks to roll in this one.  8* Chicago

10* Under Blue Jackets/Wild (8:05 ET):  What in heaven's name has happened to Columbus? Picked by many (myself included) to be a playoff contender, they're instead 0-7 out of the gate and yesterday became the first team to make a coaching change (there will be more!), dumping Todd Richards in favor of John Tortorella. Honestly, I like the hire and think the Blue Jackets have more than enough time to turn this thing around, especially in the weaker Eastern Conference. The turnaround must start in goal, however, as Sergei Bobrovsky has been nothing short of horrific between the pipes w/ a completely unacceptable .835 save percentage. You have to figure that number starts to go up as the Jackets can't possibly keep allowing this many goals.  Take the Under here. 

Columbus' first five games all went Over the total.  The total amount of scoring has decreased the last two games (both Unders), but unfortunately it's all been on their end as they've tallied just one goal in losses to Chicago and the Islanders. Interestingly, the Blue Jackets aren't giving up an abnormally high number of shots (28.4 per game). The issue is that opposing teams have a ridiculous 16.4 shooting percentage!  That's just unsustainable and cannot continue.  Fortunately, Bobrovsky is 5-1 w/ a 1.46 goals against average in his career vs. the Wild. Unfortunately, at the same time, the team is just 25th in goals per game (1.9) and hasn't scored more than three in any game this season. 

Minnesota hasn't exactly done much scoring either in B2B losses following a 3-0 start to the season. They scored just one goal in losses to both Los Angeles and Anaheim last weekend, on the road.  In their only home game this season, they finished w/ only 19 shots.  Because of the adjustment for opponent, we're getting a good value here on the total as the previous five Wild games all saw totals of 5.0.  That half goal can obviously be quite huge.  Goaltender Devan Dubnyk has predictably regressed some this year for Minnesota (said he would!), but has a 1.65 GAA his L6 starts vs. Columbus.  Both teams' penalty killing units stand to "shape up," particularly that of the Blue Jackets, who have allowed opposing teams to convert roughly one-third of the time on the power play thus far. 10* Under Blue Jackets/Wild

10* East Carolina (7:00 ET):  Those of you who are subscribers likely recall that I just played against Temple last Saturday, taking a big number w/ a winless UCF team that easily covered the spread. In my analysis for the game, I cited how the Owls had a big National TV game looming (this is it!) and then Notre Dame after that. Don't be fooled by that 30-16 final score either; Temple actually trailed 16-14 heading into the fourth quarter (although they did outgain the Knights rather significantly).  While that was going on, East Carolina was prevailing against Tulsa, 30-17 as 14-point favorites. They were "backdoored" by a late Golden Hurricane touchdown (w/ 30 seconds remaining) to lose the cover, but laying a much smaller number here at home this week, I believe they will richly reward their backers. Lay the points.

This is also a huge revenge game for East Carolina. Last year, the Pirates were ranked 21st in the country when they hit the road to play Temple and despite massive edges in both total yardage (428-135) and first downs (30-10) somehow found a way to lose outright, 20-10 as 10-pt favorites! That "somehow" was of course five fumbles. Incredibly, Temple's offense in that game had 13 possessions and 10 of them went four plays or less while gaining no more than 13 yards! There were 12 total fumbles in the game, eight by ECU (lost five of them) and four by Temple (lost none of them!). This year, it's the Owls coming in ranked (and undefeated!), so what a perfect time for ECU to "turn the tables." With 14 remaining unbeatens left in the country, you know that some are about to start dropping off the list and for Temple, that time is now.

While Temple trailed going into the fourth quarter last week, East Carolina actually led its game 23-0. Don't necessarily be "fooled" by the Pirates finishing on the wrong end of the total yardage battle either; Tulsa gained over half its yards in the fourth quarter when the game was essentially out of reach. Meanwhile, after two long TD drives early, the Temple offense couldn't do much of anything in the second half.  This is an offense which ranks just 104th nationally in yards per game and that's despite facing a ton of bad defenses so far.  The defense is stout, but ECU will be the best offense they've seen thus far (32.1 PPG). The Pirates have won 13 of their last 15 home games (beat Va Tech earlier this year) and are 19-4 SU the L23 times that they have been favored.  10* East Carolina

8* Colorado (10:05 ET): The Avalanche have alternated losses and wins en route to a 2-3 start. Interestingly, the one game in which they were favored to take care of business, they lost, 6-2 here at home to Boston as a -155 ML favorite. They're more moderately priced here against a lesser opponent, however, that being 1-4 Carolina, who not much is expected from in 2015-16.  The Hurricanes certainly come in rested (haven't taken the ice since Saturday), but that may not serve them well here considering a 4-12 record when playing w/ three or more days rest.  They also have just a .333 win percentage vs. the Western Conference the last three seasons, including a loss to Nashville in the season opener. Take the Avs.

Though in the middle of a lengthy road trip, the 'Canes actually went home following a 4-1 loss to Washington on Saturday. As I said earlier, historically, this amount of rest has been unkind to them. So too has been visiting Denver.  Their last road win over the Avalanche came all the way back in early 1996!  To put this into perspective, the franchise was still known as the Hartford Whalers at the time and the Avs were in their first season after moving themselves (formerly Quebec Nordiques)!  Needless to say, a lot has changed during that time, but for the Canes the results remain the same. They are just 2 for 20 on the power play this year and have been held to one goal or less in three of five games.  They finished the Washington game w/ only 19 shots on goal.

Goaltending appeared as if it would be an issue early on for Avs HC Patrick Roy, but Reto Berra has been a sparkplug between the pipes w/ a 0.85 goals against average the L2 games.  Neither Carolina netminder has had any success here at the Pepsi Center as both Cam Ward and Eddie Lack have never won here and have GAA's above 4.20 in five combined starts.  Power play is another edge for Colorado in this one as they are 6 for 18 w/ the man advantage this year.  Though the Avalanche have actually been outshot in every game thus far, I anticipate a big offensive night here and think they are massively underpriced.  8* Colorado

10* Under Maple Leafs/Sabres (7:05 ET):  These two clubs are expected to be at the bottom of the Atlantic Division all year long and so far they've complied, each only winning one game. Toronto's lone victory came at the expense of still-winless Columbus (who just fired their head coach) back on Friday, but they reverted back to their losing ways on Saturday w/ 2-1 loss at Pittsburgh. It was their third time in five games getting held to one goal or fewer. Then we have Buffalo, whose only win also came at the expense of the Blue Jackets. Four of their nine goals scored (in five games) this season came in that lone victory, so again, we're dealing w/ two teams that struggle to find the back of the net. Therefore, I'm on the Under.

Through five games, only three teams have scored fewer goals than have the Sabres.  This is nothing new as last year saw this team finish 30th (ie last) in number of goals scored by a fairly wide margin.  Jack Eichel, the #2 overall draft choice, has brought hope for this franchise, but the reality is that they are still years away from being a contender. The 4-2 win over Columbus last week is the only Sabres' game to go Over the total thus far and even that one needed five goals to be scored in the third period, four of them coming on a power play. Buffalo had a season-high 33 shots in that game as well. One positive is that the team is doing a good job at limiting the number of shots from its opponents, who are averaging just 25.6 per game.

Goaltending, for both teams, has been a bit of an issue, but the respective save percentages of Toronto's Jonathan Bernier and Buffalo's Chad Johnson are due to go up. The Leafs always seem to give up an alarming number of shot attempts, but that number has decreased somewhat to start this year.  Over the L3 seasons, the Under is 16-11 here in Buffalo when the total is 5.5.  Toronto is 37-29 Under in road games when the total is 5.5. It's interesting to note that the Maple Leafs were massive favorites on the money line for three of the four matchups w/ the Sabres last year. They've lost five straight times in Buffalo though and I see a low-scoring game playing out here tonight. 10* Under Maple Leafs/Sabres

8* Toronto (4:05 ET):  I suppose that I'm willing to "go down with the ship" here as needless to say the ALCS has NOT played out as I'd expected. The favored Blue Jays find themselves down 3-1 in this series following yday's humiliating 14-2 defeat at the hands of the Royals. But that was the first time the road team had won a game in this series and I don't see Toronto going down at home again.  We're back to the Game 1 starters, Edinson Volquez for KC and Marco Estrada for Toronto, here in Gm 5 and just like Gm 1 (which didn't work out they way I'd hoped for), I'm siding w/ Estrada & the Jays.  This Royals offense is certainly due to regress after yday's hit parade while the home team is in line for a big day at the plate, IMO.

As I pointed out in my Game 1 analysis, Estrada, quietly, has the best WHIP (9th in MLB!) in the  Blue Jays' rotation and opponents came in batting just .203 against him for the year, the fourth lowest average in the majors! The only three pitchers in baseball whom oppponents have a lower batting average against are named: Arrieta, Greinke and Kershaw aka the three NL Cy Young candidates and remember that trio benefits from getting to face opposing pitchers.  Estrada's offense failed to score for him in Game 1, a real rarity, but his WHIP remains 0.764 over his L3 starts and I expect him to receive more support today. Note that the Blue Jays are 7-3 this season after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. 

The thing about Kansas City's offense is that the vast majority of runners that are getting on base are scoring. It's a rate which quite frankly I find to be unsustainable.  Yesterday, they had 14 runs on 15 hits and in the first two games of the series, they scored 11 runs despite only 16 total hits. Remember that prior to yday, they had trailed by multiple runs in all but one of their victories this postseason. Don't discount the effect that facing the knuckleballer R.A. Dickey can have the following game either.  Starter Volquez allowed only two hits in six scoreless innings back in Game 1, but for a second straight start issued four walks.  That is eventually going to catch up w/ him.  He has a 1.415 WHIP his L3 starts. We know the Blue Jays offense is more prolific at home and today they'll show it in a "must-win" situation.  8* Toronto

10* Under Capitals/Flames (9:05 ET):  Interestingly enough, this is the first time where I am playing a total and the game does not involve either Colorado or Anaheim. Instead, we have a Washington team which has opened 3-1, scoring four or more goals in every win, but was shutout in its lone loss. Calgary, meanwhile, has struggled in dropping four of five including three straight where they've allowed 12 goals. Saturday night's 5-2 home loss to rival Edmonton marked the second time this season that they allowed five goals in a game. But I anticipate a lower scoring game tonight as we have a good number and Calgary's offense continues to unimpress.  Take the Under.

We've got a little bit of value here w/ the number being at 5.5 seeing as all four of the Caps' previous games have seen a total of 5.0. The last three have all finished w/ five total goals scored, the majority of which have come from the winning side. After opening the season w/ a wild 5-3 win over the lowly Devils, Washington was blanked by San Jose 5-0. They've since responded w/ B2B 4-1 victories over Chicago and Carolina.  It should be pointed out that the team's lone loss came w/ Alex Ovechkin (healthy scratch) out of the lineup. But this is also their first road game of the season. They'd been averaging just 27.3 shots per game before busting loose for 34 in Saturday's win and I cannot see their power play maintaining its current pace (5 for 13) either.

Calgary, on the other hand, has offensive issues. They've scored just 10 goals in five games and are averaging a scant 26 shots per game, fourth lowest in the league. This was a team that didn't generate a ton of shots last year either. In fact, they averaged just 22 per game in two games vs. Washington. I certainly don't see them solving Braden Holtby tonight as the Caps' goaltender comes in w/ a .920 save percentage and has been impressive in all three of his team's wins. Washington is allowing just 25.5 shots per game and the Under is 18-11 when the Flames take the ice w/ at least two days rest.  10* Under Capitals/Flames

8* UL Lafayette (8:30 ET):  This will be the second straight week that Arkansas State is playing on a Tuesday as it was just seven days ago when they came from behind to defeat South Alabama 49-31 as 3.5-point chalk. That gives UL Lafayette a minimal advantage in the sense that the Ragin Cajuns last played two Saturdays ago when they recorded a big 49-27 win over Texas State as four-point favorites.  I find this line to be a little curious not only due to the seemingly even matchup, but also due to the fact ULL has beaten ASU back to back years, including 55-40 as a three-point dog in 2014.  Two years ago, here in Jonesboro, they won 23-7 as a two-point dog.  Take the points.

ASU's final margin last week was not really indicative of how that game went as they actually trailed South Alabama 31-20 early in the fourth quarter before a bevy of Jaguars turnovers swung the game in their favor.  Total yardage was relatively even for the game, the difference was obviously a +4 TO differential. Note that the Red Wolves' only other win this year against a FBS opponent came the week prior, against 2-4 Idaho.  Last year's meeting w/ UL Lafayette in many ways was the opposite of last week for ASU, who led 9-6 before allowing four touchdowns in an eight minute span. A defense which is tied for 94th nationally in scoring (32.0 PPG allowed) is not a safe bet to be laying this many points.

Both of these teams have been blown out multiple times this season. For Arkansas State, 30+ point losses came at the hands of USC and Toledo.  UL Lafayette did not fare well against either Akron or Louisiana Tech. The strength of opponent there would seem to favor ASU, but both of these teams have also suffered close calls at the hands of an SEC opponent and there it's advantage ULL as they played Kentucky on the road and rallied to tie the game before losing in the final minute. ASU fell at home to Missouri.  Last week saw the Ragin Cajuns finish w/ a massive edge in total yards (526-351) over Texas State and this is a team that's gone 13-3 SU its last 16 Sun Belt games while also going 4-2 SU/ATS in Tuesday night action.  The points are generous here tonight. 8* UL Lafayette

9* Montreal (7:35 ET):  This is arguably the first "high-profile" matchup of the NHL season as 6-0 Montreal hosts 5-1 St. Louis.  The unbeaten Habs are the only team in the league w/o a regulation loss on its resume and this is actually the best start in franchise history, if you can believe that!  Despite the fast start, they've essentially been underpriced in the majority of their games, which is again the case here. Their catching the Blues in an advantageous spot as tonight marks the end of a six-game road trip for St. Louis, one that started more than ten days ago and took them all the way through Western Canada. I look for the Habs to remain unbeaten. 

Not surprisingly, goaltender Carey Price is the main reason for the Habs' strong start. He is 5-0 w/ a 1.20 goals against average and a .957 save percentage. The team has not allowed more than two goals in any game this season and has won all but one by at least a two goal margin. They've made it relatively easy on Price as four of the six games have seen opponents finish w/ 25 shots or fewer and the penalty kill is a perfect 14 for 14 over its last four games.  Price performed well in both games against St. Louis last season, winning twice and delivering a 1.50 GAA and .951 save percentage. Surprisingly, neither game was competitive as Montreal won 4-1 (at home) and 5-2 (on the road) w/ Blues goalie Jake Allen posting a 4.51 GAA and .830 save percentage.

I'm surprised to hear that St. Louis will likely be going w/ Allen again here, rather than Brian Elliot.  Either way though, the play stands.  The Canadiens are averaging 34.2 shots per game and have the advantage of home ice where they've outshot two visitors 36.5 to 23.5 so far.  Also, no team in the league has more points at home going back to mid-January than this one does.  The Blues are unlikely to continue to score at their current pace (4.0 gpg L4) and this will be the first time all season that they aren't taking on a second tier or likely non-playoff team from their own conference. With the home ice & a big edge between the pipes, I'm on the Habs.  9* Montreal

8* Toronto (4:05 ET): I'm coming right back w/ the Blue Jays in Game 4 and calling for them to even this series up at 2-2. Clearly, I underestimated the Toronto offense (also had Under last night) as they got back on track, hitting three home runs en route to an 11-8 victory that probably shouldn't have even been that close. They led 11-4 before a "meaningless" four-run Royals rally in the top half of the ninth. The Jays continue to impress here at Rogers Centre where they're outscoring opponents by almost two full runs per game (55-30 record this year). What really continues to impress me, however, is their starting pitching depth. Today's starter, knuckleballer RA Dickey, has a 1.62 ERA and 0.660 WHIP his L3 starts! 

Opposing Dickey will be Chris Young, who is making his first postseason start for the Royals. He ended the regular season well, but having not started a game in nearly three weeks would be a concern for me. In fact, this will be just his third start since August 1st!  His one start this season against Toronto resulted in a loss as he gave up three runs on five hits, including one homer. He did work in Game 1 of the LDS, throwing four innings of long relief and struck out seven batters. But this gap in between starts is concerning.  Then again, it's not like manager Ned Yost hasn't made some questionable decisions before.  I would not be surprised to see Young chased early in this one as he faces a lineup that was infinitely better at home this season, averaging 5.6 runs per game. Interestingly, visiting teams are batting just .229 here.

Dickey, like his offense, has performed well at Rogers Centre this season. Since the All-Star Break, the knuckleballer is 6-0 w/ a 1.94 ERA here at home. Pitching on the road, he allowed just one run and five hits in 4 2/3 IP in his lone LDS start, an 8-4 win over the Rangers. He's allowed 2 ER or less in six of his last seven starts and even better is the fact he is unbeaten (w/ a 2.73 ERA) in his L4 starts vs. KC.  Back in July, he tossed seven scoreless innings of two-hit ball against them. Bottom line is I expect the Royals offense to start regressing while the Blue Jays should have another big day at the plate. 8* Toronto

10* Philadelphia (8:25 ET): Curiously, despite the vast majority of bets being on the Giants (roughly 70%) in this game, we've actually seen an INCREASE in the spread, which is a possible indicator of "smart money" being on the Eagles. I think the perspective of most is that these two teams are fairly comparable, so taking the points is the way to go. However, Philadelphia has really owned this NFC East rivalry through the years, taking 11 of the past 14 matchups straight up while going 10-4 against the spread.  They swept last year, including a 27-0 shutout here at home in Week 6 when the G-Men came in on a three-game win streak, an identical scenario to tonight's game.  Lay the points.

The Eagles were a very nice winner for me in Week 5 as they blew out the Saints, 39-17 here at home. That was another game where the public was lined up against them as a home favorite. I think that the disappointing 1-3 start had a lot to do w/ that, but off - by far - their best game of the season, I'm fairly surprised they're not getting more support here.  They rolled up 34 first downs and 500+ total yards on New Orleans and it's not like the Giants' defense has been overly impressive.  Keep in mind that QB Sam Bradford was intercepted TWICE in the end zone last week, so the final score there could have been even more lopsided.  The Eagles defense has been surprisingly good in two home games, allowing just 37 points total.  This team has gone 3-1 SU/ATS on Monday Night Football under Chip Kelly.

With the expectation being a high-scoring game tonight, that doesn't bode well for the Giants, who are just 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS the last nine times the total has been 49.5 points or higher. It should be pointed out that the three quarterbacks they've faced during the win streak are: Kirk Cousins, Tyrod Taylor and Colin Kaepernick.  Eli Manning has looked great, but the team needed every bit of his 441 passing yards last week just to beat a bad 49ers team at home and this week he could be w/o several weapons.  The Giants' pass defense had allowed 300+ yards each of the first three games before facing Taylor and Kaepernick. Look for Bradford and the Eagles to have another big day here.  10* Philadelphia

10* Under Royals/Blue Jays (8:05 ET):  The Jays find themselves in an 0-2 hole, but if that sounds all too familiar, that's because it is as they fell into the same hole against Texas in the LDS.  Here, they have the luxury of a seven-game series (as opposed to five) and the next three games will be here at Rogers Centre where they are 54-30 this season. So, it would obviously be foolish to write this club off, especially w/ Marcus Stroman (LDS Gm 5 Winner) toeing the rubber tonight. Because of Toronto's offensive numbers, we get higher than normal postseason totals and though Game 2 went Over, it's important to note that was a 3-0 game entering the bottom of the 7th inning.  Take the Under.

Stroman returned to the Jays rotation very late in the season and has certainly been a welcome addition. The team is 5-1 in his six starts and he's turned in a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. In two LDS starts, he did allow six runs in 13 innings, fairly average, but allowed only 11 hits.  This will be the third time starting at home. It will also be Kansas City's first time seeing him in 2015, which is a big advantage.  The Over is 3-0 his L3 starts, but note Stroman has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season.  Kansas City's less heralded offense has scored 27 runs in its last four games, a pace which I fully expect to DECREASE here, even in hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. In two of four regular season games here in Toronto, the Royals scored only two runs.

Obviously, a big factor in the first two games was the fact the Blue Jays did not hit a single home run.  The vast majority of their home runs this season have come at home, but overall offensive numbers have been down in the postseason.  They are actually averaging only 4.0 rpg while batting a collective .210 w/ a .270 OBP/.365 slugging/.635 OPS slash line.  They've been held to five runs or fewer in five of the seven postseason games. The key is they're running into more top flight pitchers this time of year and tonight it will be Johnny Cueto, who I had in LW's #1 MLB play (Gm 5 vs. Houston) where he allowed just two runs (on two hits) in 8 IP (8-0 KW ratio). The Over is 10-2 in Cueto's last 12 starts, a trend "due" to reverse itself here.  10* Under Royals/Blue Jays

8* Toronto (8:05 ET): The Jays find themselves in an 0-2 hole, but if that sounds all too familiar, that's because it is as they fell into the same hole against Texas in the LDS.  Here, they have the luxury of a seven-game series (as opposed to five) and the next three games will be here at Rogers Centre where they are 54-30 this season. So, it would obviously be foolish to write this club off, especially w/ Marcus Stroman (LDS Gm 5 Winner) toeing the rubber tonight. Stroman returned to the Jays rotation very late in the season and has certainly been a welcome addition. The team is 5-1 in his six starts and he's turned in a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.  With their backs against the wall, I like the series favorite tonight.

Kansas City has obviously not faced Stroman this season, which is a big disadvantage for them.  So is playing in Toronto where the Blue Jays are 20-7 this year in the -150 to -175 price range and see their offensive numbers decrease rather dramatically. They are outscoring teams by nearly two full runs per game at Rogers Centre this year. The Jays did not home in either game in Kansas City, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them knock one or maybe two out of the park here.  That doesn't necessarily mean I think this will be a high scoring game, mind you, as the Royals will have to deal with Stroman. He hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in any start this season. 

I've talked about in the past how Toronto performs when off B2B losses. While they were technically on a four-game losing streak going into Game 3 of the LDS (lost final two regular season games), that marked the only time Toronto has been on a losing streak of more than two games since the All-Star Break! What we saw from Johnny Cueto in Game 5 of the LDS (my #1 play in MLB last week!) was certainly a departure from past starts. I don't think we'll see Cueto revert back to getting shelled here, but it certainly is worth pointing out his 6-12 team start record on the road this season w/ the Reds & Royals. That includes a loss here in Rogers Centre.  Also, the Kansas City offense has finished w/ more than eight hits in only one postseason game. They've had to come back from multiple run deficits in four of their five wins. It's bounce back time for the Blue Jays. 8* Toronto

9* NY Rangers (7:05 ET): Both the Rangers and Sharks started this season very strong, each opening w/ three consecutive victories. Since then, however, it's been opposite directions. The Blue Shirts have lost three in a row, including 2-1 here at home to New Jersey (in overtime) Sunday. The team has been held to just a pair of goals in the three losses. Ironically, yday was just the second time all season that the Rangers finished w/ the edge in shots on goal. However, that's no consolation in losing to a previously winless team and in fact, the Rangers have lost both games this year where they had the edge in shots. Regardless, I like the spot here tonight as they are catching San Jose at the end of four-game East Coast trip. Look for the home team to pick up the two points.

The Sharks are also off a loss, 6-3 to the Islanders, on Saturday.  That had to come as a major shock to the senses as in the previous four games (all wins), they'd allowed all of two goals.  The club is likely to point to the fact that backup goaltender Alex Stalock was in net for that one as it was the second game of a back to back. However, they finished w/ only 25 shots on goals, possibly also a product of playing a second game in as many nights.   Top netminder Martin Jones does have a 0.49 goals against average this year including a pair of shutouts. However, as mentioned this is the team's fourth straight road game out East and remember they are w/o Logan Couture, who broke his leg in practice Thursday. He's not the only injured San Jose player right now. The team is just 12-16 coming off three consecutive road games. 

Meanwhile, I do not believe the Rangers will be bothered by taking the ice w/o rest. For starters, history is on their side as they are 21-9 when playing the second game of back to backs going back two seasons, including a 5-2 win over Columbus earlier this year.  Because yday's game was played in the afternoon, Henrik Lundqvist may very well be back in between the pipes here.  Also, you have to think that this team's struggling power play (currently 1 for 16) will turn it around. Off three straight losses, the Rangers are 7-1.  9* NY Rangers