8* NY Yankees (2:10 ET): I don't have a ton of faith in the Yankees moving forward, but it's tough not to like them Sunday as they look to finish off a sweep of the worst team in baseball, Minnesota. The Yanks have outscored the Twins 19-9 in the three games played thus far and the current price range has been quite friendly to them as they are a perfect 5-0 this season as a ML road favorite of -125 to -150. Right now, the Twins have very little to hang their hat on as they've dropped five in a row and eight of their last 10 overall. They are a hideous 10-37 off a loss this season. A -119 run differential confirms that, yes, this is indeed the worst team in all of baseball. Yanks have won eight of nine against the Twins since the start of last season (12-4 since '14).

Like most situations, day games have been unkind to Minnesota this season. Their record is just 9-19 in such contests. They turn to the struggling Ervin Santana today and w/ a 1-11 team start record, he now has ignominy of being the biggest money-losing starting pitcher in all of baseball (-10.5 units). Lately, he's been really bad w/ a 7.79 ERA and 1.616 WHIP his L3 starts. He's given up exactly five runs in every start while lasting just a total of 17 1/3 IP.  Last time out, he gave up a season-worst 10 hits in just five innings of work. In 17 career starts vs. New York, Santana owns a 6.22 ERA.

This is the fourth time this season that the Twins find themselves on a losing streak of at least five games. Their struggles against the team in pinstripes extends well beyond the last couple of seasons as they are just 27-71 head to head going all the way back to '02 and have even dropped 19 of the past 24 home games.  The club is now facing the prospect of being swept for a ninth time this season.  This is all obviously very good news for Yankees starter Nathan Eovaldi, who is embattled himself, but recall that he concluded May w/ a three-start stretch that saw him allow just 2 ER in 18 IP.  He should bounce back against this opponent.  8* NY Yankees

6* NY Mets (1:10 ET): The Mets ought to be absolutely ashamed of themselves for dropping B2B games - at home no less - to the lowly Braves this weekend. After starter Matt Harvey regressed in the series opener, last night saw New York blow a 3-0 lead. They allowed Atlanta to score one run in four straight innings w/ the game winner coming on some plain lazy fielding. The Mets then had the potential game-tying run thrown out at the plate in the bottom of the ninth. Such a loss simply cannot occur again if the Mets want to remain in the race for a playoff spot in the top-heavy National League. The fact Atlanta has won four in a row just shocks me. I cannot see them finishing off a sweep, however.

Remember the giant chasm, which exists in the NL, that I constantly harp on?  The fact is that only seven teams were expected to be contenders in the Senior Circuit this season. One of those seven, Pittsburgh, has begun to fall off the pace, but the other six all are sporting positive run differentials, something that no other NL club can currently claim.  Though six games back of the first place Nats right now, the Mets are currently in position for a Wild Card. They are also 4-1 this season as a home favorite of -175 to -200 on the money line. Despite having matched a season-high w/ four straight wins, Atlanta is still -102 in run differential and has the worst record in the N.L. Simply put, there is no way they should be able to come in and sweep the Mets. Before this series started, the Mets were 5-1 against the Braves this year.

Injuries have literally hurt the Mets, but they should not be an excuse against this weak opponent. On the mound, Terry Collins will turn to Jacob DeGrom, who has deserved a better fate than just 3-3 in 2016 considering a 2.82 ERA and 1.149 WHIP. Of course, the same thing could be said for his counterpart Julio Teheran here. But an Atlanta offense which has scored the second fewest runs in all of baseball remains suspect and the team is just 7-14 in day games this season, averaging just 3.1 rpg.  6* NY Mets

5* NY Mets (8:15 ET): The line is here is typically higher than something that I would play, but the justification here should be pretty clear. This is an outstanding bounce back spot for the Mets, who suffered an embarrassing loss last night here at home to the lowly Braves. Really, one could see it coming as most were too quick to proclaim "Matt Harvey is back!" Tonight though, it's all about the fact the Braves, a terrible team that has actually won three straight, send a terrible pitcher to the mound, that being Aaron Blair, who in nine starts has a 7.59 ERA and 1.810 WHIP. This one shouldn't even be close.

The Mets counter w/ Steven Matz, who is off his worst showing since his first start of the season. In between his first and last starts of 2016, Matz allowed 3 ER or less nine straight times and didn't give up any runs in four of those outings.  The team has now lost three straight times w/ him on the bump, which is pretty shocking when you consider he was 11-1 w/ a 2.32 ERA over a 14-start stretch that went back to last June.  Matz should love pitching against a Braves lineup which has produced the second fewest number of runs in all of baseball. 

The Mets' own offense could use some help and that's where Blair comes in. Not only does he have more walks than strikeouts this year (yikes!), but the Braves' rookie starter also has lasted six full innings only once. There have been just three times he's lasted even five innings.  In what is shaping up to be a very top-heavy National League, the Mets simply can't afford to drop multiple games to a horrible team like Atlanta, who still owns the National League's worst run differential at -103. They bounce back Saturday night.  5* NY Mets

    

10* Toronto (4:05 ET):  The Orioles came "flying high" out of the gate this season, which was a surprise to me and a lot of other folks who had Buck Showalter's team pegged for a last place finish this year in the American League East. But looks can often be deceiving and in the case of Baltimore, they very clearly benefited from a home-heavy early portion of the schedule. While their home win percentage remains a lofty .667 (24-12 record) and this weekend's series is indeed taking place at Camden Yards, the fact is that Toronto is the hotter team right now (won 13-3 here yday) and now has a better YTD run differential as well (+43 vs. +20).

Knuckleballer R.A. Dickey toes the rubber this afternoon for the Blue Jays and while the results have mostly not gone his way in 2016, it's not as if he's pitched that poorly. Last time out, he allowed only three runs on five hits (in 6 2/3 IP), yet ended up on the wrong end of a 7-0 decision against lowly Philadelphia. Dickey's ERA has dropped by a full run and a half since the start of May as he's allowed 3 ER or less in seven of nine starts. He has a pretty decent career ERA here at Camden Yards (3.32) in seven career appearances, six starts. In general, he's pitched better on the road than at home this season.

You probably remember how the Jays "lapped" the rest of the field last season in terms of runs scored. Well, after a relatively slow start at the plate this season, this offense is now back up to "its old tricks." They've scored 10+ runs in five of the last seven games. Had they not been shockingly shut out in the series opener vs. Philadelphia, a scoring average of 9.3 rpg would be even higher.  This is all makes this a very tough spot for O's starter Yovani Gallardo, who will be making his return from a month-plus long stint on the DL. In four April starts, Gallardo did not look good at all w/ a 7.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP.  The entire Baltimore starting rotation is in shambles right now as opponents are batting .310 the L7 games and in the last three games vs. Toronto, they've allowed a total of 34 runs! This is simply not an ideal matchup right now for the home team. The Blue Jays have won seven of eight overall, outscoring opponents by nearly a 2:1 margin. 10* Toronto

8* Arizona (3:05 ET): If you've been following my MLB picks for any length of time this season, then you should probably be aware of the fact that I was quick to point out what an overachiever the Phillies had become in the early part of the season. Their won-loss record still remains a bit "propped up" due to a 15-6 record in one-run games (also perfect 4-0 in extras). But the bottom line is this is most certainly a bad ballclub, confirmed by a run differential that has now reached a woeful -94, a number that only three other teams (Reds, Twins, Braves) can claim to be worse than. Lately, the Phils have been just dreadful, getting outscored 41-9 during a four-game slide that includes a 10-2 loss here to Arizona yday. It'll be more of the same Saturday afternoon as they have to face Zack Greinke.

Greinke initially had trouble adjusting to his new uniform, particularly when pitching at Chase Field. But he's over that now and has been really good on the road this year. In fact, the team has won all five of his road starts in 2016 w/ Greinke turning in a 1.54 ERA and 0.914 WHIP in those outings. Lately, he's just been superb regardless of locale as his ERA and WHIP are 0.78 and 0.783 respectively his L3 starts overall. He didn't allow any runs to either Houston or Tampa Bay and then beat the Dodgers his last time out, by allowing just two runs in seven innings. The Phillies lineup that Greinke will face today is MLB's second worst in terms of runs scored and averages only 2.8 per game at home.

Offensively, Arizona could not be stopped last night as they belted a franchise record six home runs off Phillies pitching. Every starter in the lineup finished w/ at least one hit.  That makes it 17 home runs and 56 hits allowed during this four-game losing streak by Phillies pitching and while tonight's starter Jerad Eickhoff has been relatively immune to the longball recently (none allowed L2 starts), his issue is control (four walks his last time out).  When you're a bad team like the Phillies, it becomes a real killer to "beat yourself" in the field, yet that is precisely what this team has done by committing seven errors the last two days. The road team should win easily here - again. 8* Arizona

10* Portugal (3:00 ET): Portugal is coming off a disappointing, to say the least, result as they drew Euro Cup newbie Iceland in their first match, 1-1. Of course, Austria is in somewhat of a precarious position itself as they were stunned by tourney longshot Hungary, 2-0. The loser of this Group F match is in real trouble and I think that's going to be Austria, whose best defender - Aleksandar Dragovic - is suspended for this one. Look for superstar Cristiano Ronaldo to lead his country to victory in a must-win spot.

Austria might be ranked in the top ten worldwide, but you wouldn't have known that by witnessing their hideous performance against Hungary on Tuesday. Not only is Dragovic suspended here for two yellow cards, but Zlatko Junuzovic is injured. This is a side that has won just one time in its last four matches and has been held w/o a goal in its last two. The lone win for the Alpenrepublik during that stretch came against Malta. They have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 13 major tournament matches and have never held an opponent w/o a goal here in European Championship play. They've conceded a goal in each of the last five matches w/ Portugal.

Though the result was obviously very disappointing for Portugal, it's not as if they played terrible against Iceland. They actually finished that match w/ 26 shots, the most we've seen by an side in any match so far at Euro Cup 2016. Ten of the shots came from Ronaldo, who becomes Portgual's most capped player of all-time today. Again, it was a poor goal to concede to the Icelanders, but I just don't see Austria finding the back of the net today.  While three of the last four meetings w/ Austria have resulted in 1-1 draws, the other was a Portugese win. So too will this one. 10* Portgual

10* Over Portugal/Austria (3:00 ET): Portugal is coming off a disappointing, to say the least, result as they drew Euro Cup newbie Iceland in their first match, 1-1. Of course, Austria is in somewhat of a precarious position itself as they were stunned by tourney longshot Hungary, 2-0. The loser of this Group F match is in real trouble and Austria is in a real jam here w/ top defender Aleksander Dragovic being suspended. Portugal does most of the "heavy lifting" here and as a result we see the final score go Over the total.

Yesterday finally saw a side (Spain) score three times in a match. Don't be surprised if Portugal follows suit today. It's not as if they played terrible against Iceland. They actually finished that match w/ 26 shots, the most we've seen by an side in any match so far at Euro Cup 2016. Ten of the shots came from Cristiano Ronaldo, who is set to become his country's most capped player today. Three of Portugal's previous four results before the Euro Cup saw three or more total goals scored, including a 7-0 destruction of Estonia.

Austria has failed to keep a clean sheet in its last 13 major tournament matches. That's obviously a problem for them, but nevertheless good for us here. The one thing working in their favor here is that Portugal did concede a goal to a very inferior Iceland squad. That's despite Ronaldo and company posting the best possession numbers we've seen from any side in any match in this entire tournament. If Austria can actually find the back of the net, then this one is a lock to go Over. But even w/o a goal from the Alpenrepublik, I see Over being the final result. 10* Over Portugal/Austria

8* Belgium (9:00 AM ET): Belgium entered the Euro Cup as one of the tournament favorites (top six) but is off an embarrassing result in its opening fixture, that being a 2-0 loss to Italy. It was actually a strong first 20 minutes for the Belgians, but that didn't translate to the rest of the match. Though Belgium had a higher number of total shots (18-13), it was the Azzuri that had more actually on goal (3-2). The end result of that disappointment is Belgium coming in a little but undervalued for its second match, that being a date w/ the Republic of Ireland, who is off a 1-1 draw with Sweden. This is obviously "must-win" territory for both sides, so I'm going with the far more proven commodity.

Much is being right now over the state of the Belgian mid-field. The common belief is that HC Marc Wilmots did not have a good day against Italy, particularly when it came to the placement of key playmaker Kevin De Bruyne. I expect this situation to be rectified come Saturday. Keep in mind that this is the world's second ranked team. This side remains 7-2-1 its last 10 matches. They have never lost a competitive match to Ireland.

The Green Army appeared on its way to a win against Sweden but then conceded a goal and had to settle for a disappointing draw. It's now four straight matches w/o a victory. They've drawn three times during that stretch and also lost to Belarus. They've also failed to win their last six matches here at the European Championships.  Belgium has gone eight straight matches w/o keeping a clean sheet, their longest such stretch in 30 years. Do not be surprised if they put a halt to that streak on Saturday. 8* Belgium

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET):  The Dodgers let me down last night as they lost 8-6 here at home to the Brew Crew, but I look for them to bounce back tonight at Chavez Ravine. Remember that Milwaukee arrived here having been swept in their previous series (by the Giants). I'll continue to point to that giant chasm that exists between the contenders and non-contenders in the National League and in the case of this matchup we have one team better than its won-loss record and another not as good. The Dodgers might be only 35-33, but they've outscored opponents by 37 runs this year. Milwaukee, meanwhile, is actually now "sniffing" .500 (31-36), but has been outscored by 52 runs in 2016.

Last night's game saw the Brewers blow a three-run lead, but then rally back to win the game in the top of the ninth via a two-run Jonathan Villar home run. The win snapped a four-game road losing streak for the Brew Crew, who are still just 12-19 away from Miller Park this season.  I'm fairly shocked to see the numbers of starter Zack Davies, who has not lost in his L5 starts overall and has a 0.86 ERA and 0.571 WHIP his last three.  Few could have seen this coming after his ERA was 8.78 after three starts this season. This will be his first time ever facing the Dodgers. I think it's an opportune time to "sell high" on Davies. Keep in mind that in three road starts this year, he has a terrible 7.82 ERA and 2.054 WHIP.

Conversely, it may be a good time to "buy low" on the Dodgers' Jose Urias, a highly touted prospect that his failed to produce thus far. But he has been better in his last two starts, first allowing just a single run (in 4 IP) vs. Colorado and then giving up only two (in 5 1/3 IP) in what ended up being a hard luck loss at San Francisco his last time out. But Urias' KW ratio in those two starts is 14-2, which is certainly encouraging.  To me, this is a really low price on the Dodgers at home against a National League also-ran.  The team is 30-17 the L3 seasons as a ML home favorite of -150 to -175.  8* LA Dodgers

9* Over LA Angels/Oakland (9:35 ET):  The Angels come into this series riding a four-game Over streak and just scored 10 runs in their last game, a win over the lowly Twins. Though they now have to hit the road, it's not much of a step up in competition as they face an Oakland team that has been outscored by 59 runs so far. The A's offense certainly has some work to do here as they were held to just two hits in their last game, a 5-1 loss to the Rangers here at home. That was their third consecutive defeat and you'll note that the first three games of the Texas series, including a 14-5 win on Monday, all went Over. That's the way I see this series opener going as the Over is 24-14-3 the L3 seasons when these AL West rivals meet.

Oakland's scuffling offense may get a bit of a repreive here as it is set to go up against Matt Shoemaker, who has a 5.27 road ERA.  Shoemaker is coming off - by far- his best outing of 2016 as he pitched eight scoreless innings of three-hit ball on Saturday vs. Cleveland, finishing w/ an 11-1 KW ratio.  But I sense regression will be in the cards tonight.  There has been three times this year where Shoemaker has allowed at least six runs while failing to make it out of the third inning.  He did dominate the A's, here in Oakland (allowed only one hit in six scoreless innings), but I wouldn't look for a repeat of that performance here.  Since April 30th, Shoemaker has allowed 14 runs and 23 hits in 15 innings of work on the road. He's allowed six home runs in his five road starts overall.

As touched on before, Oakland has been swinging the bats well of late. Yes, they were almost no-hit by the Rangers' Colby Lewis on Wednesday, but before that they had scored 31 runs on 50 hits the previous four games. The problem for them tonight is that the Angels also come in swinging the bats well as they just scored a total of 19 runs in their last series. I expect A's starter Kendall Graveman to struggle tonight because quite frankly he's been struggling all season, his last five starts in particular. During that time, he's allowed 35 hits in 24 1/3 innings while also issuing 11 walks. He has a 1.814 WHIP his L3 starts.  9* Over Angels/Athletics

10* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The first place Indians are off a very disappointing series against the division rival Royals, who swept them in a three-game set in Kansas City. But the Tribe now returns home to face a White Sox club that has been reeling for more than a month. Right off the bat, Cleveland draws a break in knowing that they won't have to go against Chris Sale this weekend. Of course, they did beat Sale and ended up taking three of four when these AL Central rivals met last month. That series really set in motion the White Sox downturn and even though they just took two of three from the Tigers this week, the fact remains they are a pretty woeful 10-23 their last 33 games. Obviously, I like Cleveland in tonight's series opener.

What an odd season the White Sox' Jose Quintana is having.  He has a 2.66 ERA and 1.087 WHIP in his 13 starts, but the team is just 6-7.  That ERA actually ranks 4th in the American League, but the problem has been a lack of run support as the offense is supplying him w/ just 2.67 per start.  Each of his last six starts have resulted in team losses and the offense has scored only eight runs total in those games. Totals players will want to know that each of Quintana's last 12 starts have stayed Under the total. The last time these teams met, Quintana was on the hill for Chicago and it was a 4-3 loss.  He allowed all three runs in six innings of work and that was at home. His last road start (at Detroit) was his worst all year as he allowed five runs in 4 2/3 IP. 

For the first time in three weeks, Cleveland had an off day. They counter w/ Trevor Bauer, who is off strong B2B outings, both on the road. The first saw him allow just one run and five hits in 7 2/3 IP (10-1 KW ratio) at Seattle. The second saw him go eight innings and allow just three runs in a hard luck loss to the Angels.  Only once in his nine starts this season has Bauer allowed more than three earned runs.  Consider that only twice all season has Cleveland been on a three-game losing streak. Both times saw them win their next time out.  Opponents are batting .293 against White Sox pitching over the last week while averaging 5.1 rpg.  10* Cleveland

5* Spain (3:00 ET):  You have to like La Roja in this one. Fresh off a close 1-0 call over Czech Republic, Spain should be focused here as they know a win will advance them to the knockout stage. Yes, the defending Euro Cup champs didn't score until late vs. Czech Republic (87'), but they did have plenty of chances throughout the match and really did control possession. Meanwhile, it was not a good showing for Turkey in its opening match as The Crescent & Stars fell 1-0 to Croatia, which severely hurt its own hopes of making the knockout round. I expect the favorite to grab the three points here.

Spain hasn't lost to Turkey in 52 years, so history is definitely on their side here. I expect it to be a challenge for Turkey to score here as well considering the form they showed vs. Croatia. Though they arrived here in France with plenty of promise and some going so far to tab them as a "darkhorse," the fact is that The Crescent & Stars have scored only three times in the last four matches. If there's one positive sign, it's that they've also kept two clean sheets during that time.

Spain obviously struggled to score against Czech Republic, nearly going a full 90 minutes w/o a goal.  Remember that they came into the Euro Cup off an embarrassing 1-0 loss to Georgia.  But, I'm confident in their ability to get a goal or two this afternoon and there's the fact that over the last six fixtures, they've conceded only four goals, twice keeping a clean sheet. Remember that La Roja has not lost a Euro Cup match going all the way back to 2004, a run of 13 games w/o a loss. They have not conceded a single goal in their last 600 minutes of play at the European Championships, which is a tournament record. They've also conceded only one goal in their last six matches vs. Turkey, a side that has only two wins in its last 13 Euro Cup fixtures. 5* Spain

10* Under Spain/Turkey (3:00 ET): Spain didn't score until very late (87') in its 1-0 win over Czech Republic on Monday. Turkey didn't score at all in their opening match as they fell by the same score to Croatia, in what was a very poor showing. As the two sides meet here on Friday, with Spain looking to earn its way into the knockout stage and Turkey just trying to keep its hopes alive, I look for another low-scoring affair. I'm on the Under.

Again, Turkey's form vs. Croatia was not encouraging at all for today's step up in class. The Crescent & Stars managed only two shots on goal for the entire match. They have now scored a total of only three times in their last four matches! But, if there is one positive sign to consider here, it's that they've kept a pair of clean sheets during that same timeframe. 

Spain, who has not lost a Euro Cup match going all the way back to '04, has gone a tournament record 600 minutes w/o conceding a single goal! That's downright incredible! They've also conceded only one goal in their last six matches vs. Turkey. Over their last six fixtures, La Roja has conceded only four goals, twice keeping a clean sheet. I can see another one here w/ them scoring only once, twice at the most, as remember they were three minutes away from being held scoreless themselves vs. Czech Republic.  10* Under Spain/Turkey

5* Under Italy/Sweden (9:00 AM ET):  Italy could not have asked for a better start to the 2016 Euro Cup, picking up an impressive 2-0 win over presumed Group E favorite Belgium. Another win gets them to the knockout stage and up next will be Sweden, themselves off a 1-1 draw with Ireland in their first match. Note neither side's first match saw more than two total goals scored and that's what I'm envisioning for Friday morning. I'm on the Under.

The Azzurri are one of the better defensive teams in the entire draw here in France. They proved that by keeping a clean sheet against Belgium. That was actually the third consecutive clean sheet they've kept as they came into the tournament off a 1-0 win over Scotland and 2-0 win over Finland. Having already downed their main competition in the Group, Italy can approach this match with a little bit more caution offensively. Again, they haven't scored more than two times in any of their last five fixtures anyway.

Meanwhile, it was not a quality peformance from Sweden in their first game and now they must avoid the loss here to have any real chance of moving on to the knockout stage. Zlatan Ibrahimovic couldn't really impact the match and beyond him the Swedes really don't have any great scoring options. One thing they do have is a pretty decent defense as only once in the last seven fixtures have they conceded more than one goal. That one time saw them only allow two in a loss to Turkey. At the same time, in five of those last seven fixtures, they have been held to one or no goals themselves.  Italy keeping another clean sheet and winning in either 1-0 or 2-0 fashion is the most likely result here, but a 1-1 draw is not out of the realm of possibility.  5* Italy/Sweden

8* LA Dodgers (10:05 ET): A three-game set in San Francisco didn't go well at all for Milwaukee as they were swept and outscored 24-8 in the process. Now they travel down I-5 to Chavez Ravine and this weekend holds little promise as they face a Dodgers team that's every bit as good as the Giants. LA comes in off B2B victories over Arizona, including 3-2 yday w/ Clayton Kershaw on the bump. Perhaps not having to face Kershaw is the Brew Crew's only "saving grace" in this series, but the fact remains these teams are "miles apart" in terms of run differential with Milwaukee checking in at -54 and the Dodgers at +39. In both cases, the won-loss records are a bit misleading. I constantly harp on that giant chasm that exists between the contenders and non-contenders in the National League this season and that's something I'll look to exploit this evening.

The road has been unkind to the Brewers so far this season as they've gone 11-19 while being outscored by nearly 1.5 runs per game. Opponents are scoring 5.1 rpg while batting .280 when at home against the Brewers. Scoring has been a bit scarce this season at Dodger Stadium, but in that regard it's tough to like Milwaukee's offense which averages only 3.7 rpg on the road while batting a collective .231. Overall, the Brew Crew have dropped five of the last seven meetings w/ the Dodgers. Tonight's starter Junior Guerra has probably been Milwaukee's best arm so far this season, but he's typically gotten lousy support (five runs or fewer in all but one start) and that should be the case again here.

Beyond Kershaw, the Dodgers' starting rotation is largely in shambles right now due to injuries. But the one reliable option beyond Kershaw has been southpaw Scott Kazmir, who fortunately toes the rubber tonight. Kazmir hasn't lost a decision in over a month, turning in a more than respectable 3.47 ERA in six starts w/ 39 strikeouts in 36 1/3 innings pitched. He's allowed 3 ER or less in each of his last four starts and remember he did beat Jake Arrieta (at Wrigley!) during that stretch. Another good thing w/ the Dodgers is that you can count on their bullpen, which has been the best in the NL this year (3.00 ERA). 8* LA Dodgers

10* Under Cavs/Warriors (9:05 ET):  Your results for the Over/Under from Game 5 will vary, but those who bet the Over late would have come up just short (by one-half point!), which seems inexplicable when you consider the game was tied 61-61 at halftime and featured not one, but two 40+ point performances from Cleveland (Kyrie Irving and LeBron James). Klay Thompson had 26 points at halftime for the Warriors. But don't tell that to anyone that got caught with 209.5. Needless to say, I don't think we'll be seeing so many great individual performances here in Game 6, nor are we likely to see half with so much scoring like the first brought in Game 5.  Thus, I'm on the Under here.

The most points scored in any game so far in the Finals has been 210 (Gm 3 here in Cleveland).  The losing side in every game has been held to 97 pts or less. Needless to say, with the stakes now so high, I believe we'll see a greater focus on the defensive end. As the two teams become more familiar with one another, its only natural to expect the defense to get tighter. Golden State has actually shot just 40.7% and 36.4% respectively the last two games. They were just 42.1% in Game 3. So, Cleveland's defense definitely seems to be improving. With Golden State, they'll have Draymond Green back and that's huge. He's held James and Irving to a combined 36% from the floor when guarding either in this series.

With Green suspended, James and Irving went nuts in Game 5, combining to shoot a preposterous 33 of 54 from the floor.  Again, I just can't see two individual performances such as those being duplicated. By the way, the rest of the Cavs team combined to score just 31 points, fewer than either James (41) or Irving (41)! I've said all year how I feel the Warriors are underrated defensively as the actually finished fourth in efficiency during the regular season.  Ten of the past 15 meetings between these two have stayed Under and I would not be surprised at all to see this end up being the lowest scoring game of the series.  10* Under Cavs/Warriors

9* NY Yankees (8:10 ET): This is a battle of last place teams in the American League as the Yankees arrive in the Twin Cities on a four-game losing skid, having been just swept in a short two-game series in Colorado. Their -26 run differential confirms that they are indeed the worst team in the AL East right now, but if there is a "cure" for what ills them, then it would certainly have to be playing the Twins, who are easily the worst team in the league right now at 20-47 w/ a -109 run differential. Last season saw the Yanks take five of six from a Minnesota team that was playing a whole lot better. The guys in pinstripes are certainly receiving a lot of "love" in early betting and when a road team draws this amount of support, you typically want to back them.

What a renaissance for CC Sabathia in 2016. The hefty lefty is currently working on a 14-inning scoreless streak and improbably is top ten in ERA in all of baseball right now (fourth in American League)!  In fact, through 10 starts, Sabathia has never had an ERA this low in his entire career! He's actually healthy this year (helps!) and since May 4th, that ERA is 0.71 over six starts, the lowest ERA he has ever produced over a stretch of that length in his entire career. Even more encouraging is the fact that Sabathia has typically dominated Minnesota throughout his career, going 17-9 against them all-time (3.20 ERA), including 5-1 as a member of the Yankees.  The lineup he'll be facing tonight managed only five hits in a loss to the Angels last night. There's also the issue of a relatively quick turnaround for the Twins after returning from the West Coast early today. The Yankees at least played in the daytime yday and one time zone closer. The Twins' top hitter, Joe Mauer, is just 7 for 43 lifetime (.163 BA) vs. Sabathia. 

Minnesota will counter CC w/ Kyle Gibson and that's not really a fair fight. Gibson has yet to win a decision here in 2016 and in five career starts vs. the Yanks has a 10.72 ERA. Last time out, he allowed five runs in 5 2/3 innings as the team lost 15-4 to the Red Sox. Though New York is just 13-20 on the road overall this year, they are a perfect 3-0 as a ML favorite in the -125 to -150 range. Minnesota is 2-5 this year after allowing 10+ runs its previous game. 9* NY Yankees

10* Over Mariners/Rays (1:05 ET): Despite possessing a run differential that is 5th best in all of MLB (+53), Seattle is struggling right now. They've now lost four in a row and are just three games above .500. With 13 innings being played yday and a final score of 3-2, the expectation here will almost assuredly be for another low-scoring affair, especially w/ the quick turnaround between games.  On the surface, Thursday afternoon's pitching matchup seems encouraging for Under bettors as well. But looks can often be deceiving. Only Boston has scored more runs than Seattle this year, at least among American League teams. Tampa Bay has gotten hot (won 9 of 11) and will be going for a sweep today. Plus, they've scored at least six runs in half of their L10 ballgames. Take the Over.

Seattle starter James Paxton has yet to win in three tries despite a 2.50 ERA. Again, on the surface, that seems a little cruel. But upon closer inspection, it is revealed that he also has a 1.562 WHIP, so he's definitely letting plenty of hitters get on base. Last time out, he gave up six hits and issued two walks in 6 2/3 innings, but no one scored. Paxton's one road start was w/o question his worst as he was hammered for eight runs, admittedly only three earned (that also shows how ERA can be misleading) in just 3 2/3 innings of work. Keep in mind that was against a light-hitting team (San Diego) in a pitcher's park. Paxton's last two starts were about as low-scoring as you can get overall as the results were losses by scores of 3-1 and 2-1. But the offense figures to be more supportive today and Paxton won't be as good.

Tampa Bay's Blake Snell has made just one start in 2016. That came all the way back on 4.23 against the Yankees when he allowed only one run and two hits in 5 IP. Since then, he's been down at Triple-A Durham. I wouldn't be putting a ton of stock into one big league start.  As for day games, Seattle comes in averaging 5.2 rpg while Tampa Bay is at 4.4. As for the Rays lineup, they fare quite well against lefties w/ a .272 batting average and scoring average of 5.3 rpg.  10* Over Mariners/Rays

8* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): The White Sox hot start (to the season) is now a thing of the past as they lost again yday (11-8 to the Tigers), dropping them to a miserable 9-23 their last 32 games overall. Even when they did beat the Tigers on Monday, it only came after falling into a deep 7-0 hole early.  But tonight's play is all about one man and that's Chris Sale. The staff ace has hardly been immune to his team's losing ways over the last month, but I did take him his last time out and while it was actually one of his poorest outings of the season, it resulted in a win nonetheless. Having still allowed 2 ER or fewer in eight of his L11 starts, I expect the result to be the same for Sale here, only this time w/ a better individual performance.

Having fallen behind 7-0 and 10-2 the L2 days, Chicago clearly is in dire need of a strong start here. Fortunately, they have the luxury of turning to Sale, who became MLB's first 11-game winner last Friday. Yes, he did allow five runs and a season-high 11 hits. But, taking the full season into account here, it's certainly reasonable to expect him to bounce back. Now he did take a loss at Detroit back on 6.4 after allowing four runs on nine hits. But, again, the second go around should go a lot smoother than the first. Especially because it takes place at home. Here at U.S. Cellular Field, Sale has a 5-1 team start record and 1.042 WHIP. Last time out was a real anomaly as he gave up three home runs for just the sixth time in his career and a HR to a LH batter for just the third time in his entire CAREER! Again, he still got the win.

Mike Pelfrey will be starting opposite Sale for a second time this year. Overall, Pelfrey has been a little better of late, but he did take the loss his last time out due in large part to five walks. Of course, he also really didn't have much of chance seeing as his offense was shut out.  It's also hard to discount an earlier stretch in the season where Pelfrey allowed five runs in three consecutive starts. He has a 1-6 record (Only win against Sale and White Sox!) and 1.729 WHIP on the season.  He's unlikely to get the kind of run support he'd require for a win here, so I'm backing the home team with its ace on the hill.  8* Chi White Sox

10* Under Astros/Cardinals (7:15 ET): Former division rivals, playing the Cardinals never seemed to go very well for the Astros back when they were still a National League team. In fact, they'd lost 13 of 15 head to head matchups before switching leagues. Of course, that came at a time when Houston was at or near its nadir in the rebuilding process. Last year saw the team break out for 86 wins and a playoff berth. They've obviously disappointed quite a bit so far here in 2016, but yday's series opener did see them defeat the Redbirds at long last, 5-2, thanks to starter Doug Fister not only throwing seven-plus quality innings, but also contributing a two-run single to help his own cause. Interestingly, it was the seventh straight game where Houston stayed Under the total. That's the way I see this one going tonight.

St. Louis has had a nice sustained run of excellence the last few years, but as is the case w/ Houston, 2016 has brought some regression. Not in terms of actual level of play, mind you, as the team's run differential is actually +71, which is fourth best in all of baseball. But rather, in terms of won-loss record. The team is now just 35-29 and seemingly underachieving. Some of that is the predictable regression we've seen from the pitching staff, which last year turned in otherworldly numbers.  That being said, tonight's starter (Adam Wainwright) has shown signs of turning things around lately w/ B2B quality outings & a 0.75 WHIP his L3 starts. He's off one of his best starts of the year, in fact, having allowed just two hits in 6 IP at Cincinnati last Thursday. He finished w/ a 9-1 KW ratio, his best of the year. Houston, as we know, strikes out a lot as in the most times in all of baseball (639) so far. Over the L7 games, the Astros are batting just .219 while averaging only 3.0 rpg.  Over the course of his career, Wainwright has really dominated Houston, going 13-1 against them w/ a 1.57 ERA. That's the lowest ERA by any pitcher w/ at least 10 starts against Houston in history. The Cards' offensive numbers remain impressive, but they were held to just five hits yday. That should hopefully lead to a reprieve for Astros starter Colin McHugh, who lasted only 3 2/3 innings his last time out.  10* Under Astros/Cardinals

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): As one probably should have expected, the Blue Jays bounced back in a major way Tuesday, winning in emphatic 11-3 fashion. The previous day saw them lose in similarly embarrassing fashion, by a score of 7-0.  Bettors took Toronto all the way up to almost -300 on the money line yday, but with this Interleague series now shifting scenes to Philadelphia, we are now able to grab a far more affordable price on the better team. I've stated my opinion on Philly many teams throughout the course of this season; this is a bad team being "propped up" up a very fortunate 15-6 record in one-run games (most one-run wins in all of baseball). They are also 4-0 in extra-inning games (most such wins w/o a loss in all of baseball). With yday's loss, their run differential has now dropped to a hideous -70, which is fourth worst in all of baseball and more indicative of a 23-win team, not a 30-win one.

I really like Toronto tonight w/ Marco Estrada on the hill. He comes in w/ a 0.864 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which have resulted in Toronto victories. In fact, the team has won each of his last five starts w/ Estrada turning in a quality outing every time. His ERA and WHIP are 2.57 and 1.004 respectively in 12 starts and his last time out saw him hold a strong Baltimore lineup to just three runs and four hits in six innings of work. This is a far more favorable matchup for him as the Phillies come in having scored the second fewest number of runs in all of baseball.

Meanwhile, the Phillies' Jeremy Hellickson is coming off an awful showing where he gave up seven runs at Washington last Friday. Though the Blue Jays were surprisingly shut out on Monday, their offense is finally starting to come around as they've scored 10 or more runs in three of the past four ballgames. Note that the Phillies are 9-19 the L3 seasons after allowing 10+ runs in the previous game. So, I would expect the Jays, who are hitting a collective .278 the L7 games, to get to Hellickson here. In the grand scheme of things, these teams are trending in very opposite directions w/ Toronto winning 17 of its last 25 while Philadelphia has lost 18 of 24 including five of their last six. 8* Toronto

9* Over Switzerland/Romania (12:00 ET):  This is the second match for both Group A teams with the Swiss coming off a 1-0 win over Albania and Romania losing by a 2-1 score to host France. A win here, or even a draw, would all but ensure Switzerland moves on to the knockout round. A loss though would make things pretty dicey as their final group match is against France. Romania, conversely, would do wonders for its own chances w/ a win as they wrap up against Albania. I look for a higher scoring game than most are expecting here. Look for at least three goals to be scored.

Romania was actually the top defensive team in Euro Cup qualifying, conceding only two goals. But they equaled that number against France including the heartbreaker that came in the 89th minute. That GW goal could very well end up being the difference between Romania going to the knockout round or being eliminated after the group stage. While you wouldn't necessarily expect them to concede as many goals here, something to watch for is veteran left back Razvan Rat, who displayed poor form against France. He could be a hole in what was thought to be a stout Romanian defense.

Switzerland's Xherdan Shaqiri is the player to watch on his side as he has 17 goals in 54 international matches. Remember that he had a hat trick against Honduras at the World Cup two years ago. Another player to watch is Haris Seferovic, who had three seemingly clear-cut chances against Albania, but was denied each time do to poor finishes or great goaltending. At the same time, I expect the Swiss to make a mistake or two defensively here. Against Albania, they benefited greatly from Lorik Cana being sent off early. Even facing only 10-men, they seemed too reliant on the exploits of goalkeeper Yann Sommer. Consider that in their final two matches before the Euro Cup, Romania scored a total of eight goals. The clean sheet that the Swiss kept against Albania was their first in the last four matches. 9* Over Switzerland/Romania

10* San Diego (10:10 ET): The Padres were beaten up pretty good last night, losing at home 13-4 to Miami. I expect them to bounce back tonight behind the underrated Drew Pomeranz. Note that I continue to maintain that the Marlins are pretty overrated, at least in terms of won-loss record. They still have a run differential of -10, even after last night's big win, so them being a couple games above .500 really is not indicative of how well they've actually played this season. Home teams that suffer losses like the one San Diego did last night typically bounce back strong the following night. Sure enough, the Padres are 5-2 this year after giving up 10+ runs their previous game. They are also 3-0 as a ML home favorite of -125 to -150.

When talking about starting pitchers "deserving" of better records, Pomeranz name must be on that list. Though his TSR is just 5-7, Pomeranz has pitched well w/ a 2.44 ERA and 1.129 WHIP. In five of his 12 starts, he hasn't even been charged with an earned run! There have been only two where he's allowed more than three. In five home starts, that ERA drops down to 1.52.  Make no mistake about it, Pomeranz is now the Padres de facto ace as he ranks second in the entire National League w/ a 1.34 ERA in night games, sixth in K's per nine innings (10.7) and third in opponents batting average .184. Miami's leadoff man Ichiro Suzuki may sit here as he approaches 3,000 career MLB hits and Pete Rose's all time professional record of 4,256 (Suzuki had 1,278 hits in Japan). Giancarlo Stanton (who sat yday) has been awful of late, going 3 for 25 at the plate and he's now a woeful .192 this year.

San Diego's top hitter Wil Myers leads all of MLB w/ seven home runs in June after hitting another yday. That was actually one of four San Diego home runs last night, the problem was they were all solo shots!  Miami's starter for tonight, Tom Koehler, hasn't been too susceptible to the long ball this season, however, he does have a 1.530 WHIP over 12 starts. The Marlins have lost eight of those, including six of the last eight.  10* San Diego

8* LA Dodgers (9:40 ET):  The Dodgers lost yday, 3-2, to the Diamondbacks. Me personally, I was on the Under, so I was a winner. Of course, Arizona's win came w/ former Dodger Zack Greinke on the hill. He obviously won't be available the rest of the series, so LA is back to its customary role of favorite and I'm calling for them to reassert themselves. Arizona has hardly been dominant at home this year as their record at Chase Field is only 13-23. Like last night's play on San Francisco over Milwaukee, I keep coming back to the giant chasm that exists between the contenders and non-contenders in the National League. We've got one team from each group here and I think things will play out accordingly.

Starting Tuesday for Dodger Blue will be Kenta Maeda, who in 12 starts has a 2.70 ERA and 1.057 WHIP. So you'd expect him to have a better team start record than 6-6. But that's what the TSR is. However, on the road, he's unbeaten in five tries (4-1 TSR) w/ an even better 1.91 ERA and 0.847 WHIP. It was the definition of a hard-luck loss his last time out, at home, against the Rockies. The Dodgers lost that game, 1-0, with Maeda allowing just the run on five hits over 6 2/3 IP. He also had nine strikeouts.  His last road start, he tossed five scoreless innings of two-hit ball against the Mets and won as a +130 underdog. In eight of his 12 starts this year, Maeda has allowed 2 ER or fewer.

Not only is Arizona just 13-23 at Chase Field, they're being outscored here by nearly a full run per game. Tonight's starter Archie Bradley certainly didn't fare too well at home his last time out, giving up four runs in just 5 2/3 innings as the team lost 6-3 to Tampa Bay.  It was the second straight time that the team lost w/ Bradley on the hill.  As a team, Arizona is -30 in run differential, so being eight games under .500 is probably deserved.  As for Los Angeles, they have a run differential of +35, so they certainly deserve to be better than just a game over .500.  Each of their last five games have been decided by one run w/ them going only 1-4. That's just plain bad luck. They are 30-12 though vs. Arizona since the start of the 2014 season. 8* LA Dodgers

8* Boston (7:05 ET): This is a big series in the American League East with the two teams tied a top the division at 36-26 playing three in a row here at Fenway Park. But while the records may be the same, the respective run differentials are anything but w/ the Red Sox holding a massive advantage in that department (+85 vs. +27). Baltimore may have won four of the seven head to head meetings so far this season, but they arrive in Boston in poor form having just dropped three in a row to another division foe, Toronto, on the road. Away from home, the Orioles are only 12-15 (fewest road games played in all of MLB) and in tonight's series opener, the hosts look to have a pretty big edge in starting pitching.

David Price's tenure w/ the Red Sox got off to a bit of a rocky start, but he's gotten on track lately w/ six consecutive quality starts. Last time out, he was a real hard luck loser as he gave up just two runs and three hits in eight innings.  The same was actually true his last start here at Fenway as he allowed three runs and six hits in seven innings w/ the team ultimately came up short on the scoreboard. But pay no mind to the win-loss record as Price is in fine form right now. He's allowed only 13 runs in his last 42 1/3 innings of work. He is also 8-4 lifetime vs. Baltimore w/ a 2.90 ERA.

Now, Baltimore's Chris Tillman hasn't lost since 4.14 and is coming off a strong outing his last time out as well.  But despite a 3-0 record, he has a 4.26 ERA and 1.316 WHIP. He'd allowed a total of nine runs his two starts previous to the last one. Yet the offense bailed him out both times. That's pretty much the opposite of Price's luck. Looking at the respective offenses here, the one more likely to come through is clearly the home team as the Red Sox lead all of MLB in scoring (6.0 runs per game!) by a wide margin.  Opposing hitters are batting .290 off Baltimore pitching the L7 games.  8* Boston

    

6* Portugal (3:00 ET): Portugal is the Group F favorite and should have a relatively easy time in this opener with Euro Cup newcomer Iceland. In fact, the Icelanders have never previously even qualified for a major tournament before! The favorite has the best player in the world - Cristiano Ronaldo - on its side and while beyond him there may not be a ton of depth, that simply should not matter here. The odds here are underselling how wide the gap is between these two teams. I don't see Iceland scoring here and Portugal should get the three points.

These teams had never met before Euro 2012 qualifying. Portugal, not surprisingly, won twice - by scores of 3-1 in Reykjavik and the 5-3 at home. Though all seven of this year's qualifying victories came by a single goal, Portugal arrives in Stade Geoffroy Guichard in fine form nonetheless as they are off a 7-0 win over Estonia last week where Ronaldo scored twice. Though they netted just 11 goals total during qualifying, the Selecao should have an easier time here despite Iceland likely to pack the defensive third. I say this because Iceland has conceded a total of 17 goals in their last eight matches, not a good sign for here.

It cannot be overstated what a big step up in class this is for the first time qualifiers. Iceland is off a 4-0 win, but it was against Liechtenstein, so little should be read into that result. During those eight matches, they have lost to the likes of Norway (didn't even qualify), Slovakia and Poland, giving up at least three goals in all three defeats.  Again, goal scoring is likely to be a problem for the underdog in this one and it's only a matter of time before Ronaldo and company break through. A loss here for the favorite would be devastating and downright shocking.  6* Portugal

8* San Francisco (10:15 ET): It's back to the "chasm" I keep harping on this season in handicapping the National League as there is a giant one separating the contenders and non-contenders. That's certainly enough for me to overlook the fact the Giants had to play last night, especially w/ them available at the current price, at home no less. Despite being off B2B wins, Milwaukee shouldn't scare anyone as they've still been outscored by 38 runs over the course of the year. Both starters here have shown tremendous improvement over their last three starts, but I don't think we should be "buying" on the Brew Crew's Chase Anderson as he's faced three bad teams in a row. Again, this is a really great price on the home team.

Matt Cain goes for the Giants here and he's coming off a 17-day layoff due to a strained right hamstring. The team lost both times his turn in the rotation came up and he wasn't able to go. The strained hamstring came at a time when Cain really seemed to be finding his groove. He'd previously beaten the Cubs (as a +155 dog) by allowing just one run in six innings. That came after allowing one run in seven innings at Arizona and two in eight innings vs. Toronto. His career marks against Milwaukee are surprisingly poor, but this Brewers lineup is not one to be really feared, particularly on the road where they are batting a collective .231. The Brew Crew are being outscored by a full run per game outside of Miller Park this season.

The Giants are off a big win Sunday night, 2-1 over the rival Dodgers, as they won that series and thus increased their lead in the NL West in the process. I mentioned earlier that the pitcher they'll face here, Chase Anderson, has faced nothing but bad teams his L3 starts. Those opponents were Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Oakland, who have been outscored by a combined 226 runs this year and are all in the bottom five in all of baseball in terms of run differential. So this will be a big step up in class for Anderson and one that I'm pretty sure he won't be able to handle as his ERA in three career starts vs. the Giants is a really poor 8.53.  8* San Francisco

8* Uruguay (10:00 ET):  I'm 2-0 with plays on Jamaica matches, so I'll be sad to see the Reggae Boyz be going home after tonight. Both they and their opponents here, Uruguay, have already been eliminated from knockout round consideration due to 0-2 starts. In the case of La Celeste, the 0-2 start is a real shocker. Remember they were less than five minutes away from earning a 1-1 draw against Group C favorite Mexico in the opener and then came the real stunner, a 1-0 loss to Venezuela their time out. While nothing is on the line here except pride, I believe Uruguay is going to dominate a side that has yet to score in the Copa America.

The ongoing storyline here for Uruguay is that their best player, Luis Suarez, has yet to make it onto the pitch here in the Copa America. He seemed none to pleased about not being able to play against Venezuela as he had somewhat of a wild outburst on the sideline. Unfortunately, he's been ruled out here as well as his hamstring apparently is still bothering him.  Still though, even without Suarez, the fact that this has been the worst run ever in Copa America tournament for La Celeste should be motivation enough and this is an opponent they should easily defeat.

As for Jamaica, they've yet to even find the back of the net and they probably won't be getting nearly as many golden opportunities as the ones they blew vs. Mexico last time out.  Though they have 41 shots in two matches, only eight have been on target.  Consider that they have now gone five straight Copa America matches w/o even registering a single goal including a 1-0 loss to Uruguay. They've scored a total of just eight times in their last eight matches overall coming into tonight.  8* Uruguay

8* Under Dodgers/D'backs (9:40 ET): With Zack Greinke on the hill here, Arizona checks in as a rather sizable favorite against his former team, the Dodgers. This price just doesn't seem "right" though, considering the overall state of the two ballclubs, even though the Dodgers might seem to be at a slight disadvantage coming off the Sunday Night Game. So, forget about the side. However, the total offers a good opportunity as Los Angeles scored only one run last night and the Under is 7-2 their last nine games overall. During that time, they've scored more than four runs in a game just once and the only other Over was a fluky byproduct of extra innings. As for the D'backs, they are off a shutout win Sunday, 6-0 over Miami. Take the Under.

Greinke got off to a bit of a rough start for his new team, but has certainly turned things around as of late. In his last three starts, he has a posted a 1.64 ERA and 0.727 WHIP. The team has won all three games. Obviously, Greinke knows the lineup he'll be facing here. He did not face the Dodgers in the only prior series these teams played this year, but note that all three games in that series did go Under. The Under has easily cashed in each of Greinke's last two starts as he hasn't allowed a single run in 16 IP, including going the distance last Tuesday vs. Tampa Bay here at home.  In his previous start to that one, he struck out 11 Astros in a dominant seven inning performance. The Dodgers are hitting just .205 the L7 games.

Mike Bolsinger certainly hasn't gotten much run support in either of his last two starts w/ the Dodgers scoring only one run in both games. Of course, it didn't matter much his last time out because he surrendered six runs to Colorado in 5 1/3 IP. That was his worst outing of 2016, however, thus I'd expect him to bounce back a bit here.  Though not exactly known for going deep into games, Bolsinger had previously not allowed more than 3 ER in any start all season and five of his last seven starts (going back to last year) have seen the Under cash.  8* Under Dodgers/D'backs

10* Cleveland (9:05 ET): Draymond Green is out (suspended) and the line is dropping as a result. That's the story from the media and gambling perspectives for Game 5 of the NBA Finals. But truth be told, I'm not concerned with either narrative as I liked the Cavs in this spot well before the news came down Sunday. Even with Green being suspended for Golden State, I feel we're now back to where we were prior to Game 3, which is when everyone was writing Cleveland off and I decided to take them. My reward there was a 30-pt win. I came back with the similarly undervalued Warriors in Game 4 and while this one may not be quite as easy as either of those, the underdog (facing a "must-win" situation) simply isn't getting enough respect here and I'm taking the points. Don't rule out an outright victory either.

Make no mistake about it, Green being out does weaken the Warriors significantly. Only seven players in league history have ever registered 300 points, 200 rebounds and 100 assists in a single postseason. Green is the seventh. He's the team's third-leading scorer in the Finals, not to mention their leader in rebounds, assists and steals. He had 13 triple doubles during the regular season. He's played more minutes than any other Warrior in these Finals. The news just keeps getting worse if you're a Golden State fan. With him off the court in the series, the team's offensive efficiency drops 15.5 pts per 100 possessions and compared to the Cavs they are -9.6 pts per 100 possessions. On defense, LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love are shooting a combined 36 percent from the field against Green. Finally, here's the big one. Green has missed only one game previously all season. The result was an outright loss to the Denver Nuggets.

Going back to last year's Finals, the Warriors have now beaten the Cavaliers eight times in nine overall meetings. I just don't believe the gap between the two teams is that severe. Cleveland has actually posted a better efficiency rating and point differential in the playoffs. They have had the lead in three of the four games and were up by eight in the third quarter in Game 4. I actually think that the Cavs are playing solid defense in this series as Golden State was just 16 of 45 from two-point range in Game 5. They are a good value plus the points. 10* Cleveland

9* Cleveland (8:15 ET): Kansas City has revenge here, for a four-game sweep they suffered in Cleveland last weekend. Overall, they are just 1-6 vs. the Indians this year. Normally, I might be inclined to back the revenge angle, but not here as the Royals are not as good as their record (mediocre as it may be) might indicate. Their -21 run differential is just 4th in their own division & only three teams in the entire American League are worse. Meanwhile, Cleveland has surged to the top of the AL Central by virtue of winning 9 of their last 12 games overall. They downed the Angels yday, 8-3, & their own run differential (+47) is third best in the AL. Tonight's pitching matchup also seems heavily tilted in their favor.

In his second start back following a month long stint on the DL, Carlos Carrasco allowed four runs at Seattle in his last time out and the team lost 5-0 to the Mariners. However, Carrasco's WHIP in three road starts remains a fantastic 0.692.  Kansas City's offense woke up a little bit against the White Sox over the weekend, averaging 4.0 rpg in the three-game set. But, this is a team that has still scored only 20 runs total over its L10 games. That obviously won't get it done, especially with the starting rotation lacking dominant arms. In Cleveland last weekend, they were held to six runs total in four games, three times scoring one run or less. Carrasco came out on the winning end of the closest game, which was the opener, a 5-4 Tribe win.

The Royals counter Carrasco w/ Edinson Volquez, who has allowed four or more runs in five of his last five starts. That includes giving up five to Cleveland on June 3rd. Over his last three starts, Volquez has a 6.35 ERA and 1.471 WHIP.  The team was shut out in his last start, losing 4-0 to Baltimore as Volquez was responsible for all four runs in just 4 2/3 innings.  When he faced Cleveland back in May, he again allowed five runs, this time in only 4 1/3 IP. That makes it three straight losses to the Indians overall as last September saw him get beat 6-0 here in his home park. Cleveland averaged over 6.0 rpg this year, outscoring them 44-11. 9* Cleveland

8* Over Mexico/Venezuela (8:00 ET): Both sides have already assured their respective places in the knockout stage by virtue of going 2-0 so far. So the outcome here will determine who finishes first in Group C and I'm expecting a relatively high-scoring affair. Finishing first should matter to both clubs considering the alternative is a likely date w/ Lionel Messi and Argentina in the quarterfinals.  The last time these two nations met, Mexico came out on top 3-1 and that match took place at this same venue (NRG in Houston), which has been quite kind to El Tri in the past.  Take the Over.

Though Mexico is 2-0, they haven't been nearly as dominant as you might think. A 3-1 win over Uruguay in the opener saw them score twice late and then it was somewhat of an uneven performance against Jamaica despite a 2-0 victory there. I actually cashed the Under in that last match. However, though they kept a clean sheet, El Tri actually gave the Reggae Boyz plenty of scoring opportunities including one shot from close range that had to be blocked in the 35th minute. Even a change in formation after Halftime failed to tighten up Mexico's defensive play. Of course, it's tough to complain much about a side that is unbeaten in 21 straight matches, including 11 straight wins. El Tri is also unbeaten in its last 11 head to head vs. Venezuela, scoring at least three times in seven of the matches.

Venezuela is a surprising 2-0. I had them against Jamaica in the opener, but the real stunner came next against Uruguay where I was on the opposite side. Despite not having conceded a single goal yet, I remain unconvinced about the strength of the Vinotinto's defense. There is their history vs. Mexico, plus Houston promises to be hostile territory as this will be a heavily pro-Mexican crowd.  Because their goal differential isn't as good as Mexico (+2 compared to +4), there's a real impetus on Venezuela to score goals here. That may also lead to breakdowns defensively.  8* Over Mexico/Venezuela

10* San Jose (8:05 ET):  The Sharks kept their season alive w/ an impressive 4-2 win in Game 5 as +150 underdogs on the money line, which ended up being a nice payday for myself and my clients. The fact they were outshot, 44-26, was irrelevant as they jumped on the Penguins early, taking a 2-0 lead in the first few minutes of the game. I called for goalie Martin Jones to come through w/ a tremendous game and that's what he did, finishing the game w/ a series-high 44 saves. I know that throughout the season and especially in the playoffs, I've harped on the importance of winning the battle of shots on goal and the Penguins have done that in 13 of their last 14 games. But San Jose definitely seized momentum w/ the Game 5 victory and the home ice advantage here is going to be big.

Something else I've been harping on in my analysis of past Sharks' games is how odd their home-road dichotomy has been all year. Yes, they have a better record on the road, the best in the league in fact during the regular season. But one key stat actually indicate they play "better" at home. Visiting teams have been held to an average of just 25.6 shots per game this year here in San Jose. In Game 4, Pittsburgh finished w/ only 20 shots on goal. Given the shot discrepancy we've seen throughout the series, this could be huge. I'm not shocked at all that the Sharks have turned it around on home ice during the playoffs, winning eight of their last 10. Also, even after winning Game 4, the Pens have won just 4 of their last 16 visits here to San Jose. California home teams are 12-2 in the Stanley Cup Finals since '03.

I really want to reiterate how impressed I was w/ Jones in Game 5.  His 44 saves were the most in regulation in any Stanley Cup Final game in history. This time of year, a hot goaltender trumps all and Jones now has a .935 save percentage his L4 games.  Remember that his counterpart, Matt Murray, is still a rookie. Defensemen Brent Burns was outstanding in Game 5 as well. He clearly set the tone early and also got under Sidney Crosby's skin. If Tomas Hertl returns Sunday, that would be even bigger. This series is going seven games. 10* San Jose

8* Under Penguins/Sharks (8:05 ET):  The Sharks kept their season alive w/ an impressive 4-2 win in Game 5 as +150 underdogs on the money line, which ended up being a nice payday for myself and my clients. The fact they were outshot, 44-26, was irrelevant as they jumped on the Penguins early, taking a 2-0 lead in the first few minutes of the game. I called for goalie Martin Jones to come through w/ a tremendous game and that's what he did, finishing the game w/ a series-high 44 saves. I know that throughout the season and especially in the playoffs, I've harped on the importance of winning the battle of shots on goal and the Penguins have done that in 13 of their last 14 games. But San Jose does a much better job at limiting the number of opponents' shots here on home ice. Take the Under. 

Something else I've been harping on in my analysis of past Sharks' games is how odd their home-road dichotomy has been all year. Yes, they have a better record on the road, the best in the league in fact during the regular season. But one key stat actually indicate they play "better" at home. Visiting teams have been held to an average of just 25.6 shots per game this year here in San Jose. In Game 4, Pittsburgh finished w/ only 20 shots on goal. Given the shot discrepancy we've seen throughout the series, this could be huge. I look for the Penguins to be held in check when it comes to the number shot attempts here.

Martin Jones has a .935 save percentage his L4 games after the superb Game 5 performance. Of course, the Pens' Matt Murray is at .923 for the playoffs.  Four of the five games in this series have stayed Under the total.  The last game was the only one of the series to see more than five total goals scored. Seven of the last 11 matchups between these two teams have stayed Under the total.  In this series, the Penguins are averaging 2.4 goals per game and the Sharks are at 2.2.  8* Under Penguins/Sharks

10* Texas (4:10 ET):  The Rangers dealt the Mariners a stinging loss on Saturday as they tied the game 1-1 in the top of the ninth and then won it in the 11th. With Cole Hamels on the bump Sunday, they are poised to take the series. Hamels has not lost on the road this year, going 3-0 in five starts w/ a 2.08 ERA and 1.067 WHIP. He faced Seattle very early in the year and outdueled Felix Hernandez for a 3-2 win, going seven innings and allowing only four hits. The M's are forced to counter w/ Wade Miley, who has an 8.75 ERA in his two starts vs. the Rangers this season. Yes, my free play was on Seattle yday and they have the better run differential for the year. But Hamels nullifies those factors.

Though he hasn't won since May 22nd, there's been only two times in 12 starts this year that Hamels has allowed more than 3 ER. The team is 8-4 w/ him on the mound. Last time out, he held Houston to just two runs and four hits over 7 IP in what ended up being a 4-3 win.  I'm not really concerned w/ the number of walks and home runs allowed by Hamels in his last five starts as four of them still ended up being quality and his career numbers would seem to indicate that the number of walks and home runs will soon start to decrease again.  Seattle is averaging just 3.7 runs per game over its last seven contests while batting a collective .229.

Meanwhile, the Mariners' Miley has not been effective for the most part in 2016.  He has turned in some rather "random" quality efforts, such as his last time out when he held Cleveland scoreless for seven innings and gave up only four hits.  But his start before that, he gave up nine runs and 12 hits at San Diego and has a 8.04 ERA and 1.914 WHIP his L3 starts overall. Miley is simply too inconsistent to trust and I highly doubt he'll be able to match Hamels.  Another factor to consider is that Seattle has a losing home record this year (15-17).  10* Texas

6* Germany (3:00 ET): The Germans are the overwhelming favorites to win Group C here and along with host France on the short list of Euro Cup Title contenders.This first match, vs. Ukraine, should be a relatively easy affair. The 2014 World Cup winners have a history of starting tournaments such as this one strong having gone a perfect 4-0 in openers under HC Joachim Low, outscoring the opposition by a very lopsided 11-0 margin. Yes, there have been some struggles during qualifying but all that's done is help us get a very affordable price.

Germany has not lost to the Ukraine in any of the two nation's last five head to head meetings. That includes three draws, but overall they've outscored Ukraine 7-4 the last two meetings.  Germany has never lost its opening match in the European Championship. This is a team that always seems to "turn it on" at this level and I'm not worried about the fact they come in having lost two of their last four matches coming in.

Ukraine has done a great job not conceding goals. They've also scored seven times the last two matches and won four straight. But the competition during that stretch has not been strong. This is a big step up in class and one that I don't think they'll be ready for.  6* Germany

10* Houston (1:10 ET): These have been two of the more disappointing teams in the American League so far. Emblematic of the struggles of the Astros has been the plight of their ace Dallas Keuchel, who is actually second from the bottom in net units among all MLB starters this year at -9.2 units (4-9 team start record). Only Minnesota's Ervin Santana (-9.7) is slightly worse. But I fully anticipate Keuchel turning his season around and all things considered this is a very cheap price on the team that won yday. Houston has actually turned things around somewhat w/ wins in 13 of their last 19 games overall. Make it 14 out of 20 after today.

Keuchel, last year's Cy Young winner by the way, has shown some signs of his 2015 form lately. He's posted a 0.984 WHIP his L3 starts and a real key is that he's walked only one batter during that time. Meanwhile, he has 19 strikeouts and except for four home runs, there's really been nothing to "complain" about here.  The two-run shot he allowed in the eighth inning vs. Texas is what lost the team the game Tuesday. But other than that, he pitched well. He matched a season-high w/ eight strikeouts and 73 of his 115 pitches went for strikes. I give Keuchel a big edge over his lefty counterpart Matt Moore, who has allowed a HR in five straight starts and has a 5.78 ERA and 1.553 WHIP his last three. Only once in his last nine starts has Moore allowed fewer than 3 ER.

If the respective bullpens come into play this afternoon, and you have to figure they will, that's another big advantage for the Astros. Early in the year, their relievers showed major regression from last year's improvement, but since May 1st no bullpen has been better. Over the L23 games, this group has posted an ERA under 2.00. Now that the Ken Giles disaster seems to be behind them, Will Harris has emerged as the new closer thanks to a 0.63 ERA and 30 strikeouts.  Tampa Bay's bullpen, which has been overworked all season, has issues and Kevin Cash simply doesn't have a lot of options right now. That was apparent when he had to turn to Dana Eveland and his 6.75 ERA in the ninth inning Saturday. The Rays are batting a collective .219 at home this season. 10* Houston

8* New York (8:05 ET): The Liberty have opened the season a disappointing 4-4 (straight up) and are off a rather humiliating 100-77 loss at Los Angeles earlier in the week. But I expect them to bounce back in a major way Saturday night as they face a downtrodden San Antonio side that is just one point away from being 0-7 SU.  The Silver Stars not only average a league-low 69.1 points per game, but they also have yet to be favored in a single game all season. Lay the points.

Three of the Liberty's four losses this year have come at the hands of Minnesota and LA, who are a combined 17-0. Though being beaten in the manner that they were on Tuesday is never good, note NY was a 7.5-pt dog to the Sparks, who shot a blistering 55 percent from the field. San Antonio, rest assured, will not be replicating that kind of shooting here as their FG% for the season is just 38.4 and only once have they broken 41%. Meanwhile, the Liberty come in averaging 80 PPG and they've scored at least 77 in all but two games.

The Stars are off a 90-75 loss at Phoenix in what was actually their best shooting game of the season to date (42.9%). It's not a good sign that they were still blown out despite that distinction.  This is a team w/ only one player averaging in double figures. The Liberty took both meetings last season, winning by 16 at home and then by 28 here in San Antonio! Overall, New York is a strong 9-3 ATS its L12 road games while San Antonio is just 1-7-1 ATS its last nine at home.  8* New York

10* Under Dodgers/Giants (7:15 ET): Last night's game stayed Under despite a 5.5 run total. We won't have either Clayton Kershaw or Johnny Cueto on the bump Saturday night, but we do have a higher number and that's just fine because the Dodgers' Scott Kazmir has looked great of late, Giants' starter Jeff Samardzija is due to bounce back and neither offense has done much of anything lately. Over the L7 games, Los Angeles is batting a paltry .189 and were it not for a 12-run effort against lowly Atlanta, things would look even worse. They've actually been held to four runs or less in eight of their last nine ball games. As for the Giants, they are batting only .192 the L7 games. They've scored just 10 times in the L4 games. Take the Under, a bet which has cashed in 8 of the Dodgers' previous 10 games.

Kazmir has a 3-0 team start record his last three starts w/ a 2.12 ERA and 0.941 WHIP. Don't be fooled by that 5.13 road ERA as his WHIP is 1.080.  His last time pitching on the road, all he did was outduel the Cubs' Jake Arrieta by tossing six scoreless innings of one-hit ball at Wrigley! Not only does Kazmir have 24 strikeouts in his L3 starts (in only 17 IP), he hasn't given up a home run. A couple of subpar outings early in the year vs. San Francisco is not enough to dissuade me from thinking Kazmir will pitch well here. 

As for Samardzija, he's off B2B rough showings (both on the road), but he should bounce back here now that he's pitching back at home. Consider that in four home starts, his ERA is 2.93. Also, he'd allowed a total of only six runs in his five starts prior, a span where he pitched 38 innings.  He was just fine against the Dodgers earlier this year in Chavez Ravine, holding them to only three runs in six innigs.  With the Giants favored tonight, there's a reasonable expectation that they may not have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth and that's always advantageous when betting the Under. 10* Under Dodgers/Giants

8* England (3:00 ET):  This is a Group B matchup. Despite past failures on the world stage, England is expected to win this group w/ relative ease. The Three Lions looked quite good in qualifying, in fact, they were the lone team to go unbeaten (10-0!) and in doing so posted some really impressive numbers. The conventional wisdom has Russia as their stiffest competition this Group, but they have their own issues of failing in the biggest tournaments and their top midfielder (Alan Dzagoev) won't be available here because of a broken bone in his foot. All things considered, I believe England is a tremendous value at the current price.

Russia's posted some pretty good qualifying numbers as well, but be aware of two things. One is that they were actually awarded a 3-0 win by default over Montenegro due to violent fan behavior. One might want to assume that match was Russia's for the taking, but you'd be wrong as it was a scoreless tie at the 67 minute mark when the match was called. Also, this is a side that was helped immensely by their opponents getting called for offsides. That happened 38 times during qualifying, an average of 3.66 times per 90 minutes, which was the highest rate among all Euro Cup qualifiers.

Do I think England will win the entire Euro Cup? Probably not. But, as I said earlier, they certainly are in fine form right now. Russia is not as they are actually down two key midfielders (in addition to Dzagoev, Igor Denisov won't play here). Denis Glushakov's status is alos now in doubt. While England won all 10 qualifying matches, Russia is w/o a win in its last three and has conceded seven goals during that time.  Too much firepower from the English side here. 8* England

8* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): The Royals are in a lot of trouble right now. Not only have they lost eight straight games, but run differential says they are just the fourth best team in their own division. I went against them last night as Chris Sale got the White Sox back on track. Despite hitting three home runs yday, Kansas City's offense remains a concern as they came into this series having scored 1 or 0 runs in six consecutive games. The White Sox were experiencing their own set of issues (had dropped 20 of 26 at one point), but they're now off B2B wins and I think this series is theirs for the taking.

Speaking of lack of runs scored, the amount of support that Chicago starter Jose Quintana has received this year has been very shameful. The most runs the team has scored in any Quintana start this year is five. However, on the flip side, he's also allowed 3 ER or less in 10 of those starts. As a result, his L11 starts have all stayed Under the total. Even though he's off an outing where he allowed a season-high five runs, I think there should be a reasonable expectation for him to bounce back. As I said earlier, the Royals offense has really been struggling of late and that includes striking out 11 times yday. They struck out 12 times the game before that. That plays right into the hands of Quintana, who has 71 K's in 76 2/3 IP this season.

Kansas City made an overnight pitching change here as it will be Danny Duffy instead of Chris Young. The always mercurial Ned Yost is claiming it's to keep all of his starters on five days rest, but to me it's a desperate act by a desperate manager. Duffy does have an excellent WHIP (0.960), but it's still a relatively small sample size (five starts). He's allowed a total of five home runs his L3 outings. Something I talked about in yday's analysis is the fact the Royals have been just terrible on the road this year (now 11-23) and that now includes an 0-3 mark as an underdog of +150 to +175.  This team has scored a total of 13 runs during its eight-game losing streak and five of those came last night.  The White Sox might not return to the level they were playing at in April, but they are a better ballclub than what they've show over the last month. 8* Chi White Sox

8* Washington (12:05 ET): I feel that this is a tremendous value on the Nats at home, not just because they dominated this same opponent yday (won 9-6), but also because I have such little regard for the Phillies in general. The underdog here has somehow been able to hover around .500 for most of this season (currently three games below), but that record is clearly undeserved judging by a -60 run differential that is bottom five in all of baseball. Lately though, Philly has really hit the skids (lost 11 of 14) and while the road team is 8-2 in head to head meetings this season, I would not be the least bit surprised if Washington swept their division rival right out of town this weekend.

We won't have Stephen Strasburg (now 10-0) on the hill Saturday, but Tanner Roark should suffice. Roark has a 2.68 ERA here at home this year and it was only two starts ago that he held the Phillies to two runs and four hits over seven innings. The Nats won that game by a score of 4-3. Perhaps part of the reason we are able to get the team at such a relatively cheap price here is the fact Roark is off a bit of a rough start Sunday in Cincinnati. But I'm counting on him bouncing back here as Philadelphia has scored the second fewest runs in all of baseball and actually had only six hits in yday's game. As for that price range, Washington is 6-2 this year as a home favorite of -150 to -175 on the money line.

You really can't complain too much about Phillies' starter Aaron Nola, who comes in unbeaten on the road w/ a 2.02 ERA and 0.775 WHIP. But, there's a first time for everything and today is when Mr. Nola should suffer his first defeat away from home.  This will actually be the FOURTH time this season that Nola has faced the Nationals. So, lack of familiarity is now no longer an option. I'm not sure it ever was quite frankly as the first time they faced him, they tagged him for seven runs. Overall, the Phillies have lost two of Nola's three starts against the Nats. Given where Washington ranks in run differential (3rd best in MLB!), today's line simply does not properly reflect what a mismatch this truly is.  8* Washington

10* Golden State (9:05 ET):  Well, the Warriors are off a loss here (just their 15th all season) and save for Game 4 of the last series, you know what that means. They're a sure thing to bounce back. They are 13-1 SU coming off a SU loss this season (9-4-1 ATS) and outscoring opponents by 12.4 PPG in those contests. Now, as you know, I went "all in" on Cleveland for Game 3. What has changed, you ask? Well, for one, you have the fact the Warriors are off a loss. Two, there is the size of that loss. Remember that Cleveland was off a similar margin of defeat going into that last game. Teams off a SU loss by 30+ pts in the NBA Finals are now 3-0 SU/ATS all-time in the next game. The Warriors are also now underdogs, which is rare. Take the points.

As dogs, Golden State is 4-2 SU/ATS this year.  That does include a 34-point win in this building back on Martin Luther King Day.  Betting these series on a game-by-game basis requires one to "go against the grain" often times. This was certainly the case for Game 3 when everyone was writing off Cleveland. Now, perception has swung the other way. The fact is, historically speaking, NBA teams tend to come back and play very well off a blowout loss (by 20 or more) in the playoffs.  

I also don't see how Steph Curry and Klay Thompson can continue to play as "poorly" as they have.  Curry is off one of his worst games all season, scoring only 19 pts in Game 3 as he got into early foul trouble.  The Warriors fell into a massive early hole, as they trailed 33-16 after the first quarter and while they got closer by halftime, the deficit was far too great to overcome, especially on the road. I don't see things getting so out of hand again.  As a team, the Warriors shot a pretty woeful 42.1% from the field, including just 9 of 33 on three-point attempts. Those numbers will go up tonight.  10* Golden State

8* Colorado (8:40 ET): Already, this is the fourth series played between these teams this season. Every time, San Diego has taken two of three. But I believe this go around could go a lot better for the Rockies, who come in off B2B wins, including 11-5 over the Mets in a make-up game yday. For tonight's series opener, there's already been a big line move in their favor.  Though the Padres have won four of six overall, all of those of games took place at home and the last series was against lowly Atlanta. On the road, SD is just 10-18 this season. In terms of YTD run differential, Colorado looks like the much better team here as they are only -8 while San Diego is -47. 

Jon Gray will pitch here for the home side and he's looked pretty sharp of late. The team has won each of the L3 times he's taken the mound, including a 10-3 victory at San Diego his last time out. While he certainly got plenty of run support there, Gray also turned in - by far- his sharpest performance of 2016 w/ 12 K's as he allowed just 2 ER over seven innings.  It was his third straight start allowing just five hits and he walked only one batter, giving him a 1.082 WHIP over that timespan. Throughout his career, Gray has had the Padres' number as he has 1.96 ERA in four starts w/ a 34-4 KW ratio. 

The Padres will go w/ Andrew Cashner in this one and he's yet to win on the road in four tries this year. His ERA and WHIP, respectively, are 5.40 ERA and 1.550 in those four outings. It's highly unlikely that those numbers go down here after pitching at Coors Field.  Despite having a losing record at home so far, the Rockies average 5.9 rpg and are batting a collective .297.  8* Colorado

8* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET):  Things certainly did not go well for the White Sox when they last met the Royals (Memorial Day Weekend) as they were swept in a three-game series. In fact, they're now just 1-5 vs. their division rival this season and in the midst of a real "downward spiral" overall as they've quickly gone from first place in the AL Central (were 24-12) to a .500 team through 60 games (that's a 6-18 record L24 games, if you're keeping score at home). The slide has even affected the team's ace, Chris Sale, who has lost three straight after a 9-0 start to the campaign. But, since sweeping the White Sox, the Royals happen to have gone down the tubes themselves as they've been swept by both Cleveland and Baltimore in the last two series (seven straight losses). I think this is a great spot for Sale and company to get back on track. 

Sale has only one bad start on his resume, that coming against Cleveland on May 24th, his first loss of the year. The bullpen betrayed him his next time out (that was against KC!) and then while he did allow 4 ER to Detroit the last time we saw him, that was another time the bullpen couldn't get the job done. Let's remember here that Sale has still allowed 2 ER or less in 8 of his last 10 starts overall.  That includes the outing in Kansas City and what makes this rematch so attractive is that the Royals offense has been downright pathetic of late. They are averaging only 1.1 rpg during the seven game slide (batting a collective .214).  They've scored 1 or 0 runs in each of their last six ballgames.

The reigning World Series champs will counter Sale w/ Ian Kennedy, but that shouldn't scare anyone.  Kennedy allowed five runs last Saturday in Cleveland as the team took a 7-1 loss. Also, it should be pointed out that while the Royals may be one-half game up on Chicago in the standings, their YTD run differential is actually much worse (-24) and that's due in large part to a terrible 11-22 road record, which is second worst in the entire American League (ahead of only Minnesota). By the way, Chicago did win yday (as an underdog), 3-1 over Washington.  They are 18-12 off a win this season. 8* Chi White Sox

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): St. Louis has been kind to me each of the last two days as I was on them for both wins over Cincinnati, but it's a step up in class here and one they have certainly struggled w/ this year as the Pirates have taken five of the six head to head meetings. That includes a three-game sweep here at PNC Park to start the year. While the recent schedule isn't too favorable here to the home team, which had to fly out to Colorado to play a make up game yday, the result of that game (as bad as it may look) might be. The Bucs won the only time this year they allowed 10+ runs the previous game & they are 8-2 in this spot since the start of the 2014 season. I also like the pitching matchup here for the Bucs.

Gerrit Cole gets the nod here for Pittsburgh and he's posted a 2.91 ERA in 11 career starts vs. St. Louis. That includes him allowing just two runs over six innings in a 10-5 win back on May 8th at Busch Stadium, which begat a six-start stretch of allowing 3 ER or less every time out. In fact, he's allowed more than 3 ER in only one start all season. Cole doesn't allow many home runs (just three all year) either.  He didn't travel w/ the team yday, so that he could be ready here. Though his K/9 rate is at a career-low right now, sometimes that can be overplayed. His ERA is 2.85 and while he didn't factor into the decision his last time out, he looked as good as ever (67 strikes vs. 35 balls).  I'm expecting him to pitch well here.

When Cole beat the Cards back on 5.8, Michael Wacha was the loser. It has not been a particularly great season for Wacha thus far as he hasn't won a game since April 23rd. Things have only gotten worse over his L3 outings as he has posted a 9.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP.  Three times in his last five starts, Wacha has allowed six or more runs while failing to make it past the fourth innings. Against Pittsburgh, he allowed four runs in six innings.  Though the team did win his last time out, 7-4 over San Francisco, Wacha was responsible for all four runs surrendered. Also, in his previous five starts, opponents wound up scoring 10, 12, 7, 8 and 10 runs respectively. Not good. Pirates take the series opener. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Under France/Romania (3:00 ET):  Due in part to the fact they are the host nation, France is considered the betting favorite in this year's Euro Cup. Past performances as the host, such as the '84 European Championship and '98 World Cup, both of which they won, speak well to how Les Bleus should perform here. Then there is the matter they come into this Tournament in excellent form, having lost only one of the past 10 friendlies, a stretch that includes wins over Germany, Portugal and the Netherlands. So, the hosts figure to have little difficulty in winning the Euro Cup opener against Romania. But that price is obviously way too high. In terms of value, Under is the better play here.  

Romania's defense certainly won't let this thing get out of hand. Three points and a positive goal differential is probably the goal for the Romanians during the group stage. Therefore, I don't imagine them coming out and being overly aggressive here.  This is huge because France's defense is somewhat depleted right now, which is why I wouldn't go too crazy betting them to win the whole thing.  Still though, they just held Scotland w/o a goal in their final tune-up. Romania's last two matches were both high scoring affairs, but they came against lesser competition. Note that in the three previous matches, there were just three total goals scored from both sides.

Given that France has scored at least three times in five consecutive matches, there is a reasonable expectation for another high-scoring affair here. But I don't think that will be the case. A 2-0 France win or 1-1 draw are the most likely scenarios to me. Romania, which lacks experience, may very well not even get on the board. They have failed to beat France even one time in the last 10 head to head meetings, although they've played them tough in Group stages before, losing only 1-0 and playing to a scoreless draw. Also, Romania had the best defensive record in qualifying matches, conceding only two goals in 10 games. 10* Under France/Romania

10* Under Mexico/Jamiaca (10:00 ET):  Mexico is "feeling it" right now w/ eight straight wins for HC Juan Carlos Osorio, but their 3-1 decision over Uruguay was a little bit misleading as they were just five minutes away from a 1-1 draw and at that point their only goal scored was an "own-goal."  Meanwhile, the Reggae Boyz didn't score at all in a crushing loss to Venezuela in their first Group C matchup. With key absences on both sides, I envision a low-scoring affair here.  I'm on the Under. 

Red cards have Andres Guardado out for Mexico and Rodolph Austin out for Jamaica here. Those are key losses for both sides. There should be other key lineup changes for El Tri here and as a result I do not expect them to be at their best. They certainly won't be scoring three times again like they did in their Gold Cup Final match vs. Jamaica. I look for the approach here to be to simply get on the board first and then play defense. A win here sends Mexico to the knockout round.

Jamaica is desperate and needs a win, but simply lacks the talent to compete against this opponent.  This is a side that has been shut out four times in its last seven matches overall.  Two of the other three were a 1-0 victory and 1-1 draw.  So goals are typically few and far between when the Reggae Boyz are on the pitch and I anticipate that being the case again here, especially from their point of view as another "clean sheet" is likely as I don't see Jamiaca scoring at all.  10* Under Mexico/Jamaica

10* San Jose (8:05 ET):  Like the Cavaliers in the NBA yday, everyone seems to be writing off the Sharks, who are down the 3-1 in the series here.  But that's created a situation where there is now a ton of value on the underdog in what is a "must-win" game. Much is being made of the fact that Pittsburgh has never clinched a Stanley Cup Finals on home ice. That's a trivial fact to our breakdown here. Yes, the Pens have not trailed in regulation in this series, but for the first time in 13 games, they were outshot on Monday (24-20) and I think that will carry over here as I expect San Jose goalie Martin Jones to be better when it matters most. I'll call for the Sharks to stay alive and win Game 5.

Remember that each of the first three games were decided by one goal, so San Jose has been competitive. Before winning Game 4, eight of the Penguins victories had come by exactly one goal, so they haven't been nearly as dominant as the shot totals might indicate. For whatever reason, the Sharks have simply been better on the road than at home (in terms of results) as they're 33-19 overall, outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals per game. 

While the Sharks definitely face a "tall order" in coming back to win this series, as I said at the outset, they are drastically being undervalued here in Game 5.  NHL teams down 3-1 in a playoff series actually have a winning record in Game 5's (32-25) the last eight years. Considering most of those teams have been a dog, that's quite the return on investment.  They are also 17-9 playing w/ revenge for a home loss this season.  Coming off a loss by 2+ goals, they are 16-8.  Great value on the underdog here.  10* San Jose

8* Uruguay (7:30 ET):  Uruguay is off a devastating loss, 3-1 to Mexico, in their first Group C matchup and may not have Luis Suarez here. But, as my regular clients/readers know, I constantly harp on the notion of "buying low" and "selling high" and this is clearly a chance to do the former. Remember earlier this week I cashed a 10* on Argentina, who was w/o Messi. Venezuela was kind to me in a 1-0 victory over Jamaica, but that was also their first win in six competitive matches and the step up in class here is pretty big. I'm going w/ the favorite in a game they simply "must have."

It's not like Suarez is the only talented player on this Uruguay roster. They definitely had some chances against Mexico, but simply could not convert. It was also simply "not their day" as the wrong national anthem was played before the match and several players lost their cool with the referees.  Despite the desperate situation they face here, I expect a far more focused and polished effort.  Despite all that went wrong vs. Mexico, including being down to 10 men, it appeared as if they would escape with a 1-1 draw before El Tri scored twice in the final minute. The first goal conceded was an "own goal," which won't happen again here.

Despite being up a man, Venezuela was largely outplayed in the second half by Jamaica. Keep in mind that this team has not scored more than one goal in any of its last five matches. They also have not beaten The Celeste in the last eight Copa America meetings, drawing once and losing seven times. Seven times in that stretch, Uruguay has scored at least twice.   This is a great price on the much better and more desperate side.  8* Uruguay

8* St. Louis (7:10 ET):  As I called for, the Cardinals bounced back yday w/ a pretty convincing 12-7 victory over the Reds. While they may have dropped Tuesday's series opener, the Redbirds have really owned this NL Central rivalry through the years, taking 28 of the past 43 meetings and 14 of the past 21 series including seven of 10 here at Great American Ballpark. In yday's analysis, I outlined how St. Louis has underachieved this year in terms of their run differential (+58), which is indicative of a 35-win team (actual record is 31-28). That run differential is actually tied for fourth best in all of MLB. Meanwhile, the Reds are every bit as bad as their 22-37 record shows as they've been outscored by 95 runs this year, the second worst differential in all of baseball. I have the Cards beating them in today's series finale.

When it comes to St. Louis' ability to score runs in this game, one must not only consider the starter they face (Brandon Finnegan), but also just how wretched this Reds' bullpen is.  After yday, Reds' relievers now have a 6.73 ERA and 1.700 WHIP for the year. They've allowed five or more runs in each of the last three games. Finnegan, who has a 3-9 team start record overall, has actually pitched worse at home where his ERA and WHIP are 4.64 and 1.364 WHIP respectively. Of course, the Cardinals don't have much issue scoring runs; they have scored 325 times this year, the most among National League teams.

Adam Wainwright may have an 8-4 team start record, but he hasn't necessarily pitched as well as we've come to expect from him. But in his last three starts, he's done a better job at keeping runners off base (1.10 WHIP) and is off four straight quality starts. He can expect plenty of run support here (see above), so as long as he's not as bad as he was the first time he faced the Reds this year, the team is in good shape. Including allowing a season-high seven runs to Cincy back on April 16th, I'm a little surprised how poor his career marks vs. them are. But the improvement he's shown lately coupled with the likely run support (I haven't even mentioned how Cards hit .271 off lefties!) has me going "all in" on the road team. 8* St. Louis

8* Toronto (7:05 ET):  I constantly harp on the idea of "buying low" and "selling high." Well, this series opener is a chance to do the latter as the Orioles' "stock" is sky high right now coming off a dominating sweep of the Royals, whom they outscored 17-2 over the course of three games. They've now won seven of their last eight overall and currently lead the AL East w/ a 35-23 record.  But it needs to be noted that this club has played a MLB-low 23 times on the road this year and is just 11-12 in those games. This series in Toronto, winners of six of nine themselves, is a big one for the home team and I like them to win Thursday behind Marcus Stroman.

Stroman may be off B2B ugly outings against Boston and has not pitched well in three of his last four starts overall.  But he got the win over Baltimore earlier this year by allowing just three runs in 7 IP and that was the team's only win in a 3-game set in Camden Yards.  Stroman also was on the winning end of a 15-2 final at Baltimore last September when he allowed only one run and five hits in 8 IP.  It would be a nice break here if he didn't have to face Manny Machado, who should be suspended any day now for his role in the brawl w/ the Royals earlier in the week.  The Orioles' offense has been held to four runs or fewer in three of their past four wins, so it's not like they're hitting the cover off the ball right now.

What that means then is Baltimore has been getting tremendous pitching of late. I don't think that will be the case here tonight w/ Tyler Wilson on the mound. The last time Wilson started was the last time the O's lost, 8-6 at the Yankee Stadium, as Wilson allowed five runs in just four innings.  The team has now lost each of his L4 starts.  Toronto broke out for seven runs in yday's win and let's not discount the slight advantage they get coming off day game while Baltimore didn't arrive here North of the Border until much later.  This is a really big series for the Blue Jays and a good time to fade the Orioles. 8* Toronto

8* Under Ecuador/Peru (10:00 ET): Peru is in a good spot right now as they were the only team in Group B to win the first time out. All they needed was a single goal to top overmatched Haiti and now Los Incas are in a position to secure a quarterfinal berth w/ another win here. However, as they showed in a scoreless draw w/ Brazil, Ecuador is a tough out and actually should have won that game as they had a goal disallowed.  What I look for tonight is another low-scoring match, one where we will not see more than two total goals scored.

Though one could make a case that Ecuador should have beaten Brazil, statistically they were actually dominated in the match.  That being said, it was still an impressive showing against the five-time world champs and they have only lost to Peru twice in the past 13 meetings. Still though, they are going to need to find a way to score here, something they have not done two of the last three times they've faced the Peruvians. 

These two sides have not met since 2013, a 1-0 Peru win. There have been only three total goals scored in the past three meetings.  With only one goal scored overall in Group B play thus far, Under is my call tonight.  8* Under Ecaudor/Peru

10* Cleveland (9:05 ET):  It goes w/o saying that this is a "must-win" for the Cavs. Down 0-2 in the series, they have shown few signs of life, enjoying only a brief lead in both games and losing by the combined biggest margin in the first two games of any Finals in history. But if there was to be any game that they'd win, you have to think it would be this one (similar to Toronto in the Eastern Conference Finals). Now, that doesn't mean that they have to win, but I think they will.  Though Game 2 was a disaster, history is actually on Cleveland's side here. There have been only two times in Finals history where a team has lost a game by 30+ points. Both times the team that lost big came back to win and cover the next game. Much more so than Game 1 and even Game 2, people are now completely writing the Cavs off and that has created value.

There is simply no way Cleveland doesn't improve from its woeful Game 2 performance. Yes, there is a chance that Kevin Love may not play here, but an interesting issue has been raised whether the team may actually be better without him. Defensively, they certainly would be. There is the matter that NO Cavs player besides LeBron James has made any substantive contribution in this series. As we know, role players tend to play better at home.  We saw that with Golden State in the first two games.  Considering the hot shooting we saw from Cleveland in the first three rounds, it is almost incomprehensible that the same group could be so bad here. Through two games, they've shot below 37% overall and have missed 32 of 44 three-point attempts.  Those numbers should go way up in Game 3.

Cleveland has not lost at home in the playoffs, going 7-0 w/ the last five victories all coming by double digits. Despite the shift in scene here, they are actually receiving less action here than what they did for either Game 1 or 2. Again, that has to do w/ what happened Sunday night.  Three of Golden State's losses this year have come in games where they were road favorites of three points or less.  They actually opened as the 'dog here. While Cleveland could conceivably still go off as the favorite, it's still a shocking lack of respect being shown to a team that's 40-8 SU on this floor and outscoring its opponents by 10 points per game.  Also note that Golden State has lost every Game 3 during these playoffs, the last two by double digits (allowed 120 & 133 pts).   I look for the Cavs to get back into this series. 10* Cleveland

8* St. Louis (7:10 ET): I was obviously left quite disappointed last night when the Cardinals lost to the Reds, 7-6. Especially since they rallied back from a 6-1 deficit to tie the game in the top of the ninth.  A Joey Votto walk-off gave the home team the win, but I'm willing to bet that today's starter (Alfredo Simon) won't give them the kind of start John Lamb did yday. Of course, yday's game also reinforced just how bad this Cincinnati bullpen is. It was the second straight game that they blew a five-run lead. Overall, the Reds are just an awful team, having been outscored by a whopping 90 runs this season (2nd worst differential in baseball). As I said in yday's analysis, St. Louis has greatly underachieved so far this season given their own run differential is +53 (tied for 4th best in MLB).

Simon has been really bad for Cincy w/ an 8.55 ERA and 1.877 WHIP in his 11 starts. All things considered, he actually wasn't that terrible in Colorado last week as he allowed "only" four runs in seven innings. Of course, it really didn't matter as his offense ended up scoring 11 times.  Still, Simon is averaging less than five runs per start this year and made it only one inning when he faced St. Louis back in April. He gave up four runs, including two home runs, in that one inning.  Despite yday's win, the Reds remain 15-27 their last 42 games vs. the Cardinals. 

Cards starter Jaime Garcia has a strong track record vs. the Reds. He's gone 10-4 w/ a 3.50 ERA in 19 career appearances (17 starts) against them.  The last time he faced them was September of last season and he gave up just one run in seven innings.  Traditionally, St. Louis has been a really good bounce back team as they are 102-64 off a loss since the start of the 2014 season.   8* St. Louis

8* NY Yankees (7:05 ET):  Quite frankly, I'm not that high on either of these two for 2016, but the Yankees have clearly proven themselves to the better ballclub, at least in this series, by winning both games so far. I like them again tonight as they'll face Jered Weaver, who certainly has had his fair share of issues pitching on the road in the past.  On the flip side, Yankees starter Nathan Eovaldi has pitched very well of late, turning in a 6-0 record and 3.35 ERA his L8 starts overall.  The Angels simply haven't done much at the plate in this series and they've dropped seven in a row here at Yankee Stadium.  Mike Trout and Albert Pujols are a combined 2 for 13 the L2 games and the team has only 11 hits. In 10 of the last 12 meetings w/ the Yankees, the Halos have finished with six or fewer hits.

Weaver has a 5.22 ERA and 1.602 WHIP in five road starts this season. You may recall that he finished w/ the highest road ERA in all of baseball in 2015.  Those struggles away from home clearly extend here into Yankee Stadium where his ERA is 8.71 in five career starts. Overall, he has a 5.83 ERA vs. the team in Pinstripes. While he did pitch surprisingly well his last time out, allowing just two runs over six innings at Pittsburgh, Weaver had previously allowed 17 runs in his L4 starts.  He did give up two home runs against the Pirates. 

Eovaldi did allow five runs his last time out, but still ended up with somewhat of a "raw deal" as he was in line for a win when he exited the game. But the bullpen couldn't hold a 5-2 lead against Baltimore.  Note that in his three starts previous to that, Eovaldi had allowed only two runs and nine hits over 18 IP.  Curiously, the Angels are just 5-16 this year vs. teams that have a losing record.  This price range has actually been quite friendly to the Yanks, who are 5-1 this year as home favorites of -150 to -175 on the money line. 8* NY Yankees

6* Chi Cubs (1:05 ET):  I never fell for Philadelphia's surprisingly decent start as their run differential indicated they were quite fortunate to be winning so many ballgames. They've fallen off quite a bit over the couple weeks, dropping 13 of 18 overall, but still somehow are just one game below .500 despite a horrible run differential of -50, which is 5th worst in all of baseball. They obviously beat the Cubs yday, 3-2, improving their record in one-run games to a MLB-best 15-5.  That is what is keeping them afloat.  But speaking of run differential, the Cubs remain at a historic pace having outscored their opponents by 142 runs in 57 games so far. This series obviously still shapes up as a complete mismatch to me and because they're the road team, we're able to get a pretty decent value on the best team in baseball.  Look for them to take the series.

If you take away the one-run games, the Phillies are just 14-25 and have been outscored by 60 runs!  This is not a good team, folks. It's actually quite frustrating to me that they have the record that they do.  Fortunately though, the Cubs are 12-3 off a loss this year. We also have a matchup of two pitchers headed in very opposite directions. The Cubs' John Lackey has a 1.83 ERA since May 1st and has allowed 1 ER or fewer in four of his past five starts. He threw 6 2/3 innings of scoreless, five-hit ball his last time out as the team beat Arizona 6-0.  Two starts ago, Lackey beat Philadelphia, allowing only one run and four hits in seven innings. The pitcher that faced him there was Vincent Velasquez, who will be the opposition yet again tonight. As alluded to earlier, Velasquez is struggling right now w/ a 6.00 ERA in his last six starts, including 8.31 his last three (2.231 WHIP). Against Lackey & the Cubs, he allowed seven runs in only 4 2/3 innings and then he lasted only 4 1/3 innings his last time out, despite throwing 100 pitches.  This shapes up as a total mismatch.  6* Chi Cubs

10* Under Colombia/Paraguay (10:30 ET):  Already considered the Group A favorite, things have broken well for Colombia.  The 0-0 tie between between Paraguay and Costa Rica only makes things even more difficult for anyone in the rest of the field to catch them after an impressive 2-0 dismantling of the U.S. on Saturday.  With neither side here conceding a goal in its first match, you have to like the Under here as I expect a rather conserative affair as both teams are likely content to play "not to lose." 

In four of their last five matches, Colombia has allowed 1 or 0 goals.  A second straight "clean sheet" here would not surprise me in the least.  However, offensively they do have an issue in that captain James Rodriguez, who scored one of the two goals vs. the USA, will not play here due to injury.  I do not believe we will see them score multiple times tonight. 

Paraguay, of course, didn't score in their first Copa America game. I see them being content to play for a draw here, so that they can keep alive their chances of making it to the knockout round.  They didn't score against Mexico in their final pre Copa America tuneup either, losing that match 1-0.  So that means only one goal - total - has been scored in Paraguay's last two matches.  1-0 is the most likely final tonight.  10* Under Colombia/Paraguay

10* Under Red Sox/Giants (10:15 ET):  San Francisco pitching has been simply outstanding of late. While they did give up 13 runs in B2B losses to St. Louis over the weekend, this is a team that has given up four runs or less 23 times since May 6th!  Their staff will be put to the test here by a Red Sox lineup which leads all of MLB in runs scored, but thankfully this game is being contested in a NL park, so they don't have to worry about a designated hitter. The Reds Sox averaged just 4.0 rpg in its last series (at Toronto) and finished two of the three games with six or fewer hits.  Injuries have hurt both teams' lineups recently.  Take the Under.

Both teams' aces go tomorrow, but here we have a better number to work with.  Note that over their last seven games, the Giants are averaging 4.1 rpg, but batting only .202.  At the same time, they are allowing just 3.4 rpg w/ opponents hitting .204. This is a team that typically scores more on the road. Their lineup takes a significant hit w/ both Angel Pagan and Hunter Pence now out of the lineup.  That has to be a relief for Boston starter Rick Porcello, who is looking to bounce back from a rough outing in Baltimore last week. But despite a relatively high 5.40 ERA, Porcello has a 1.091 WHIP, which tells me he's simply been unlucky in terms of the number of baserunners he's allowing, actually scoring.  He hasn't allowed more than eight hits in any start all season.

Albert Suarez is only starting for the Giants due to the Matt Cain injury and while its a bit concerning he allowed three runs to Atlanta (in 5 innings), note those came on only three hits (did walk two batters).  I look for him to pitch better here.  The Red Sox are without two outfields of their own - Brock Holt and Blake Swihart - and their replacement, Chris Young, is just a .224 lifetime hitter here at AT&T Park (from his days w/ the D'backs).  The Giants' options at replacing Pence and Pagan are no more appetizing, thus w/ two depleted lineups, a low scoring game is to be expected here, especially since one is at a disadvantage by being in a foreign park.  I also think its pretty amazing that Boston has given up 6.1 rpg its last seven contests despite opponents hitting only .226.  10* Under Red Sox/Giants

8* Arizona (9:40 ET):  Throughout his career, Zack Greinke has been a dominant pitcher at home. However, the transition from Dodger Stadium to Chase Field in Arizona has been a difficult one.  Through seven starts in his new home ballpark, he has a 6.54 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.  But I have to believe we'll start to see him pitch better here moving forward. He comes off a dominant outing in Houston where he threw seven scoreless innings of four hit ball w/ 11 K's and no walks.  Now he faces a Tampa Bay lineup that is among the lowest scoring in all of MLB and that's when they (mostly) have a designated hitter in the lineup. I'll call for the Rays win streak to end at four.

Last night saw the road team prevail 6-4 and despite my earlier comment about them being among the lowest scoring teams in all of MLB, they have scored six runs or more in every game during the win streak. But that still places them only 20th in MLB in runs scored for the year and I expect regression to start to take place. This is a classic "sell high" opportunity on TB, who had lost five in a row prior to the current win streak.  Three of these four wins came in a sweep of lowly Minnesota, remember. Injuries continue to hurt this team in a variety of ways.  Arizona's 9-21 home record befuddles me as there's no way the team or Greinke should be this bad at Chase Field. Remember the D'backs just beat Jake Arrieta and the Cubs at Wrigley Field Sunday.

Matt Moore has not pitched very well for the Rays this season as he has a 5.46 ERA and 1.516 WHIP in 11 starts. Things have only gotten worse of late w/ his ERA and WHIP being 6.48 and 1.920 his L3 starts overall.  Greinke, meanwhile, has gone 4-0 his last four starts overall w/ a 2.57 ERA and 27-2 KW ratio.  His best home start of the year came against an American League opponent, back on May 17th, as he held the Yankees to only three runs and five hits in seven innings.  Again, I typically feel that AL teams are always at a disadvantage in NL parks because of the loss of the DH.  Look for Greinke to slow down the Rays in this one. 8* Arizona

10* Costa Rica +0.5 (8:00 ET):  Please note that I am playing Costa Rica +0.5, not straight up. This means that if the game is a draw, we win, so there's an obvious benefit to this approach. And I would not be the least bit surprised if things are tied up when all is said and done here.  If you recall, I won w/ Costa Rica (over Venezuela) in their final Copa America tuneup, a 2-1 victory. So "La Sele" arrives in Chicago in decent form as they are off a draw with Paraguay on Saturday.  Meanwhile, the US did not look good at all in its 2-0 defeat at the hands of Colombia. With neither team getting on the board in its first Group A matchup, taking the half-goal here is huge.

Costa Rica is a team on the rise under Oscar Ramirez. Two years ago, they advanced to the World Cup quarterfinals, eventually bowing out against the Netherlands after penalty kicks.  Defensively, they Ticos are stout, giving up less than one goal per game under Ramirez.  They may not have gotten on the board against a favored Paraguay side, but I figure they will here.  The player to watch is Johan Venegas, who has four goals in his last 17 games played. Less than a year ago, here on US soil, Costa Rica came in and handed the American a 1-0 defeat. 

This US team has not looked good for over a year. They were sloppy again vs. Colombia, giving the ball away on 18 percent of their pass attempts.  Though the US is dubbing this a "must-win" and Costa Rica will be w/o Kendall Waston, the American side is simply not that good.  Remember yday's play on Argentina where we were able to grab significant value due to a key absence (Lionel Messi). The same holds true here and because the US is the host country, they're even more overvalued than usual.  10* Costa Rica

8* St. Louis (7:10 ET):  I keep going back to the giant chasm that exists between the contenders and non-contenders in the National League. Coming into the year, there were exactly seven teams considered to be contenders in the Senior Circuit (Nats, Mets, Cubs, Cards, Pirates, Giants, Dodgers).  Not surprisingly, those are the seven teams we currently find have positive run differentials at this point of the season. Most of the rest of the field are some real bottom-feeders and you can put the Reds at the bottom of that group. Cincy has a -91 run differential, second worst in all of baseball, ahead of only Atlanta. After recent series against the likes of the Giants, Nats and Cubs, this should be an easy series for the Redbirds, even on the road. I really like them in tonight's series opener.

St. Louis has certainly played better than it's 30-27 record would seem to indicate.  They are +54 in run differential, which is tied for third best in all of baseball, behind the Cubs and Red Sox. So there are only four potential matchups in all of MLB (Cubs-Braves, Cubs-Reds, Red Sox-Braves, Red Sox-Reds) that are more lopsided on paper than this one.  While the Reds actually did win four in a row prior to a loss Sunday, they are just 14-27 vs. St. Louis since the start of the 2014 season. It should also be pointed out that the Reds are a really bad 9-29 in night games so far this season.

While Cardinals starting pitching has mostly regressed from last year, Mike Leake has been the pleasant surprise of the rotation. He's turned in five straight quality starts (1.59 ERA), giving up 2 ER or less every time out.  For the season, he has a 42-14 KW ratio in 11 starts.  I give him a big edge tonight over John Lamb, who has a 5.58 ERA and 1.630 WHIP in six starts. Coming off his strongest outing of the season to date (at Colorado!), I expect him to regress in this spot. Consider that the team lost each of his first five starts. The Cardinals are averaging 6.0 runs per game on the road and are baseball's second highest scoring team overall.  The Reds have - by far - given up the most runs in all of baseball.  8* St. Louis

10* Cleveland (10:10 ET):  Having won five straight, the Indians are currently the hottest team in all of baseball.  They just got done completely dominating the World Series Champion Royals, outscoring them 20-2 over the course of the last three games and taking over first place in the American League Central in the process. Normally, I might advise to "sell high" on the Tribe in this instance, but tonight is not a good time to be playing the Mariners, who ended up on the wrong end of a sweep themselves over the weekend, dropping all three games at Texas. Seattle has been really disappointing here at home w/ a 12-14 record at Safeco Field. I look for Cleveland to stay hot.

The Mariners' offense has been surprisingly strong thus far, but cooled off considerably over the weekend. Sunday saw them get held to just three hits.  Now they are set to face one of the top pitching staffs in all of baseball, starting w/ Trevor Bauer on Monday. While winless over his L5 starts, Bauer has turned in a quality outing four times during that stretch.  He was a bit unlucky to give up three runs on just four hits against Texas on Wednesday, though the team still ultimately prevailed by a score of 5-4.  Bauer did not face Seattle when the two teams faced off in a three-get set in Cleveland earlier this year.  I'd say he's "due" for a win. 

Seattle pitching has not been good of late w/ an 8.56 ERA the L5 games and opponents are batting .376.  Cleveland comes in averaging 6.0 rpg during its win streak while batting a collective .294.  It will be James Paxton going for the home team tonight and his first start of 2016 was a disaster as he was responsible for giving up eight runs in just 3 2/3 IP Wednesday vs. San Diego. Keep in mind that was at an NL park (meaning he gets to face the pitcher) and one of the weakest hitting lineups in all of baseball.  The Indians lineup presents a far greater challenge to Paxton and I simply like the road team a lot more in tonight's series opener.  10* Cleveland

10* Under Rockies/Dodgers (10:10 ET):  With the home team being a sizable favorite in this one, it's likely that they won't have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth and that's just one of many reasons why I like the Under in tonight's series opener between the Rockies and Dodgers. From the Colorado perspective, they'll be sending - by far - their best pitcher to the hill, that being Tyler Chatwood (2.99 ERA, 1.21 WHIP), so that helps as well. Both offenses had no problem scoring Sunday (combined for 22 runs), but I anticipate a low-scoring game in this one.

Take the Rockies' pitching staff out of Coors Field and surprisingly, they're not half-bad!   In terms of ERA, the staff jumps from a 29th place ranking overall to 11th when factoring in only away games. Nowhere is the effect more dramatic than it is with Chatwood, who has a fantastic 0.53 ERA and 0.891 WHIP in five road starts, all resulting in victories for the team. The Under is 9-2 in Chatwood's 11 starts overall and catching him off one of his few subpar showings of 2016, I think is a good thing.  He should bounce back from a disappointing effort vs. Cincinnati, where he allowed five runs, considering there have been six times this year that the righty has allowed 1 or 0 ER.

The Dodgers counter w/ Mike Bolsinger, who has a 0.705 WHIP at home. Granted, he's pitched at Dodger Stadium just one time, but he allowed just three hits in 5 2/3 IP.  He also threw six scoreless innings here against the Rockies last season.  Save for yday, Dodgers games have been relatively low-scoring of late. Six of seven had stayed Under prior to Sunday as they are actually still hitting below .200 as a team the L7 days while opponents are averaging just 2.7 rpg during that same timespan. Of course, the Rockies' offensive numbers dip big time outside of Coors Field as they average about a full run less per game.  This one has all the factors that I look for in an Under play. 10* Under Rockies/Dodgers

10* Argentina (10:00 ET):  This is the marquee matchup of the entire Copa America Centenario, at least in the first round.  This is, of course, a rematch of last year's Final that saw Chile (as the host country) prevail after penalty kicks. But Argentina, whom many consider the favorite this year, has already gotten some revenge w/ a 2-1 win in Santiago during World Cup qualifying, back in March.  Having split of a pair of results in Chile, I think Argentina is now poised for a big win on neutral soil.

Yes, it is a big blow that Argentina won't have the best player in the world, Lionel Messi, on the pitch tonight.  But, believe it or not, it's an absence that I believe that they can overcome as a unit.  Messi sustained a back injury during a friendly w/ Honduras back on May 27th.  Certainly, it's a situation where there is a ton of value in betting the tournament favorite to win tonight's match. 

Argentina has lost only once in its last nine games and arrives here in San Francisco having won four in a row. It's important to note that in the last two games vs. Chile, they have conceded just one goal excluding penalty kicks.  Chile, while talented, has not displayed strong form recently as they've failed to win five of their last six matches including B2B losses.    Don't forget that Messi's absence will also cause La Roja to alter its own strategy here.  10* Argentina

9* San Jose (8:05 ET):  While Pittsburgh's incredible run of outshooting its opponents is still in tact (now 12 straight games!), San Jose finally "got on the board" in the Stanley Cup Finals, winning Game 3 in overtime. All three games of this series have been decided by one goal, so despite the big shot disadvantage, the Sharks are hardly being dominated. I spoke of the importance of home ice advantage in my Game 3 analysis and not only is this the Penguins' first trip to the West Coast during HC Mike Sullivan's tenure, Saturday marked their first game outside of the Eastern Time Zone since January 18th! They are now just 3-12 their L15 games in San Jose.

I do expect the discrepancy in shots to start tilting the Sharks' way. At home this season, they are allowing just 25.7 per game.  Based on that, a clear case can be made that they underachieved in terms of won-loss record, which is now just one game over .500. Typically, the team does a great job at controlling the puck here on home ice. That's key.  Something else to consider is that San Jose had 38 shots blocked in Game 3. That's a lot. For the season, they average 31.9 shots per game at home. I've been making the case throughout the playoffs that this team's home record was bound to improve, so I'm not surprised that they've won seven of their last eight here at The Tank. Also, an interesting note has Eastern Conference teams at just 1-12 in the state of California during the Stanley Cup Finals, dating back to '03.  

Considering the number of actual shots on both sides, Martin Jones is outplaying Matt Murray in goal during this series. Jones has stopped 107 of 114 shots while Murray has stopped only 68 of 74.  That's a much better save percentage for the former.   Something else to consider is that Pittsburgh is still only 16-15 SU vs. the Western Conference this season.  San Jose, meanwhile, is 21-14 vs. the Eastern Conference.  9* San Jose

9* Under Bolivia/Panama (7:00 ET):  Like yesterday's play on Jamaica-Venezuela, we have a matchup here of the two decided underdogs in the respective group. South American powers Argentina and Chile figure to rule Group D, so for Bolivia and Panama this probably represents their only chance at achieving victory. Do not expect many goals, however. Both teams were held scoreless in their final tune-ups for the Copa America, Panama by Brazil and Bolivia by the United States.  I'm on the Under here as I see no more than one goal being scored in the entire match. 

Bolivia is arguably the weakest side in the entire Copa America tournament. Getting beat 4-0 by the U.S. in a friendly is a decidedly "bad look." Over their last 10 games, they have scored only eight goals and won just one time.  Furthermore, coach Julio Cesar Baldivieso is facing an up-hill battle here as he's had little preparation time with his players. "We are virtually untrained," he said.  That's not a good sign.  Honestly, I would be stunned if Bolivia scored a goal Monday night. 

The key to this play is the Panamanians being held in check. Fortunately, that's something that happens with great regularity.  The 2-0 loss to Brazil their last time out marked the sixth time in the last seven games they were held to one or zero goals.    A 1-0 final is the most likely result here.  9* Under Bolivia/Panama

10* Cleveland (8:05 ET):  There are two ways to look at the Cavaliers' 104-89 loss to the Warriors in Game 1. One would be that they lost a game by double digits despite their opponent's top two scorers combining for just 20 points on 8 of 27 shooting.  The more positive outlook is that there is simply no way that Golden State's supporting cast will play as well as it did Thursday night and even though they lost by double digits, Cleveland did come back to go up (albeit only momentarily) in the second half despite really no one outside of LeBron James playing that well. That's the outlook I'm taking and I'm also taking the points.

The Cavs had been 7-2 ATS as an underdog this season before failing to cover Game 1. In terms of efficiency, they've actually been better than the Warriors this postseason, outscoring opponents by 11.1 points per 100 possessions while Golden State is just +9.4. Then there is the matter of LeBron James being a perfect 9-0 straight up in his career in Game 2's of a playoff series if his team dropped Game 1.  Last year in the Finals, we saw a Cleveland team (w/o either Kyrie Irving or Kevin Love) stun the Warriors on this floor w/ an outright win. This Cleveland team is better than last year and I expect them to show that tonight.

I just can't see the Warriors players not named "Thompson" or "Curry" combining to shoot 35 of 60 again from the floor.  Note that outside of the Cavs' "Big 3" (James, Irving, Love) and Tristan Thompson, the rest of the team attempted only 13 shots!  That's not enough.  The Cavs shot only 38.1% for the game and made only seven three-pointers.  We have seen how deadly they can be from behind the arc throughout these playoffs and I expect the likes of JR Smith and Channing Frye to play a bigger role tonight.  I do not rule out a repeat of last year where the Cavs win Game 2 outright.  The Cavs' current six-game losing streak to the Warriors matches the longest James has had vs. any opponent in his career.  10* Cleveland

8* 1st 5 Innings Play St. Louis (8:05 ET):  Please note that this is a 1st 5 Innings play only, meaning that we only need the Cardinals to be ahead after the fifth. A play such is this is obviously heavily based on starting pitching and looking over this series as a whole, this is the one starting pitching matchup slanted in favor of the home team. St. Louis sends Carlos Martinez to the bump and while he's struggled at times this year, he is coming off perhaps his most effective outing to date. The same could possibly be said for the San Francisco's Jake Peavy, but his struggles run deeper and I see the Cards being up at the mid-way point of this game.

One must also look at whom Peavy has faced in his last two starts to see why he's improved. Against Atlanta and San Diego, two of the worst hitting teams in all of baseball, he looked good but he still has the highest ERA (6.34) and WHIP (1.572) on the Giants staff. Those numbers predictably get even worse on the road.  St. Louis is the National League's highest scoring team and hits righties way better than they do lefties w/ their team batting average about 30 points higher against the former.

For the Giants, the opposite is true as they hit lefties far better than they do righties. The difference is about 30 points as well.  Martinez tossed eight scoreless innings of five-hit ball at Milwaukee on Monday and should be well rested here w/ five full days off between starts.  It's pretty shocking to see the Redbirds w/ a losing home record as they've outscored opponents here over the course of the season, plus they are outscoring opponents by nearly a full run per game in all games!  Playing the game only for the first five innings nullifies what has been - at times - a suspect St. Louis bullpen.  8* 1st 5 Innings Play St. Louis

8* Seattle (7:05 ET):   Though New York stopped a three-game slide w/ a convincing 91-59 home win over Indiana two nights ago, I don't like the idea of them laying points in this spot.  This will be just their second road game to date and while last season saw them post a sterling 14-4 ATS record away from the Big Apple, that was because they were 10-1-1 as a dog. Seattle comes into this one fresh off a big upset of Phoenix, as six-point underdogs, which was their second straight home victory. They're also 3-1 ATS at Key Arena so far. Take the points.

Twice this season, the Storm have been a home underdog and both times they covered the spread.  Against Phoenix, they led virtually the entire way en route to a 14-point victory.  It was their highest scoring game of the season and third straight time shooting better than 50 percent from the floor. Speaking of shooting, the three-pointer is going to be a big weapon for the home team in this one as they shoot at a 37.7% clip from behind the arc for one of the best marks in the entire league. New York is the worst three-point shooting team at 25.9%. 

The Liberty have to be a little disappointed that they were able to win only two of five home games.  Granted, they were a dog in two of the three losses, but this is also a clear letdown spot after the blowout win two nights ago.  Most frustrating of all for the Liberty has to be the fact they're only 3-3 despite holding opponents to a 36.0 FG%.  With this number coming down, Seattle appears to be the sharp side. 8* Seattle

9* Venezuela (5:00 ET):  You may recall that I just played against Venezuela in their last match, a 2-1 loss to Costa Rica. But it is a far more favorable matchup here in the Copa America Centenario against Jamaica.  Many are making the case that this is potentially the Jamaican's "easiest" draw as well and coming off a run to the Final of the CONCACAF Gold Cup last summer, there is a bit of a buzz surrounding this group. But all that's done is create some nice value in going the other way, which is what I'll do.

Make no mistake about it, both teams are underdogs to get to the knockout stage by virtue of being in the same group as Mexico and Uruguay.  My biggest issue with the Reggae Boyz is that they struggle to score. In the last Copa America appearance, they failed to record even one goal in three matches. In their last six matches, they've scored a grand total of just eight times.  But what really made me want to make a play here is the fact Jamaica will be w/o the services of Wes Morgan, the anchor of their improved defense, as he is apparently "too tired" from Leicester City's incredible run in the EPL.  His absence is a very big deal and the result is Jamaica likely ends up winless here.

Now, I'm fully aware of the fact that Venezuela has just one win in its last 14 matches.  But they surprised me in scoring the first goal against Costa Rica.  Doing so again here and I can see a 1-0 lead holding up this time.  The tune up vs "La Sele" should serve them well here.  Past Copa America tournaments have brought some success to the Venezuelans as they've twice made it to the knockout stage in the last three appearances. They pulled a shocker over Colombia in 2015.  Historically, they have the edge over Jamaica. Salomn Rondon is the player to watch w/ 16 goals in his last 49 games. 9* Venezuela

8* Run Line Minnesota (2:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Twins +1.5. Minnesota is obviously not a good team. They have - easily - the worst record (16-39) and run differential (-85) in the American League. But they did win the opening game of this series vs. Tampa Bay, 6-4, and it was a 2-2 game going into the eighth on Friday. So they've been competitive here. With the Rays sending a struggling pitcher to the mound Sunday, the Twins absolutely have a chance here and I think they'll do no worse than a one-run loss.

The struggling pitcher in question that Tampa Bay will be sending to the mound is Drew Smyly, who allowed eight runs in just four innings his last time out. That raised his ERA/WHIP to 8.82/1.776 WHIP his L3 starts overall.  All three of those starts have resulted in losses for the Rays.  The team is just 4-7 w/ him on the mound including five losses in the last seven outings. The problem here for the Rays is that they've mostly had to rely on their starting pitching this season as the offense ranks 13th (i.e. third worst) in both team batting average and runs scored. Simply put, Minnesota should have a fair number of chances to get runners across the plate in this one.

I concede that the Twins starter, Tyler Duffey, has been no better than Smyly of late. In fact, the numbers over his own last three starts are virtually identical.  But I'll call for a return to the form we saw from him in his first four starts of the year when he allowed 3 ER or fewer every time out.  Getting an additional 1.5 runs to work with if you're the home team is a pretty big deal, especially at this price. Tampa Bay (six games below .500) really isn't even close to being good enough to justify that kind of respect as they've been outscored over the course of the season and are just 2-5 their last seven games overall.  8* Run Line Minnesota (+1.5)

8* Miami (1:10 ET): I've stated my issues w/ the Marlins in the past (-17 run differential despite winning record) and even went against them in the opener of this three-game set. Not only did they lose that game (good for me), but they fell yday as well, after blowing a lead late. But if you see the Fish favored over the Mets, that must mean that Jose Fernandez is pitching, which is a very big deal. Not only is Fernandez 22-1 in 32 all-time home starts, he's gone a perfect 6-0 his L6 starts overall, turning in a 1.38 ERA. The team has actually won his last seven starts overall. He'll be opposed here by the struggling Matt Harvey, who may have looked good his last time out, but still has a 6.00 ERA and 1.636 WHIP on the road. 

Miami had been 28-4 this season when leading or tied after seven innings. That was before yday when the bullpen allowed the Mets to score a total of four times in the eighth and ninth innings, resulting in a 6-4 final.  Of course, with Fernandez on the bump, there's a really good chance that the Marlins will be up again early in this one. Their ace has posted a 0.90 ERA and 0.75 WHIP his L3 starts, including seven shutout innings of three-hit ball vs. the Pirates (one of the NL's top hitting teams) his last time out. He needed only 88 pitches, his fewest in any outing all year.  Over his L5 starts, Fernandez has allowed a total of just three runs and has 49 strikeouts in 34 innings!  He's had the Mets' number throughout his career as well w/ 1.67 ERA in five starts, never allowing more two runs in any one starts. Quite simply, there's a lot to like about Fernandez here.

Fernandez will also benefit from the fact that the Mets lineup is dealing with so many injuries right now that they actually had to send pitcher Jacob deGrom to the plate last night as a pinch-hitter.  Also, I'm not convinced that Harvey has "turned things around" based on one quality start, which came against an AL opponent at home.  He'd allowed 5+ ER in each of his previous three outings.  Look for Miami to avoid the sweep here as they atone for yday's tough loss. The value of Fernandez simply cannot be understated.  8* Miami

8* Under White Sox/Tigers (1:10 ET):  Save for a pair of wins earlier in the week against the Mets, it's been a real "downward spiral" of late for the White Sox, who have now lost 17 of their last 23 games overall.  Not even Chris Sale was enough to stop the bleeding yday as the team fell for a third straight time w/ him on the mound and surprisingly did so in relatively high-scoring fashion, losing by a score of 7-4. The Sox have now allowed a total of 17 runs in this series w/ the Tigers, so I won't be calling for them to win, but I think they'll do a better job at limiting the damage Detroit does at the plate here. Meanwhile, Tigers starter Justin Verlander should also do "his part," thus I'm on the Under this afternoon.

Chicago's lineup has been scuffling for some time now. The team batting average is just .220 the last seven games and they've been held to three runs or less in 11 of the past 20 games. Note that the scoring didn't really pick up until the late innings yday as it was just a 2-1 game after five innings and 4-2 game after seven innings. It figures to be another low-scoring game at the outset w/ these two starters on the hill. Let's start w/ Verlander, who has a 0.794 WHIP his L3 starts and like I said, he'll be facing a struggling lineup today.  In 22 career meetings vs. the White Sox, Verlander has turned in a 2.89 ERA and he's mainly done his best work here at home.  Last time out was actually just the third time this season where he gave up more than three runs in a start, but at least it was still the fifth straight time he went 7+ innings.

Starting today for the White Sox will be Jose Quintana, who has virtually seen nothing but Unders this season.  His first start of the year, a 5-4 win over Oakland, did go Over, but since then it's been 10 consecutive Unders for him including a 1-0 loss his last time out.  Nine of those last 10 starts have seen five or fewer total runs scored and only one time has he allowed more than 3 ER all season!  Six times he's allowed 1 or 0 ER.  The last time he started here at Comerica Park, he allowed just one run in seven innings, but the team still came out on the losing end of a 2-1 final.  8* Under White Sox/Tigers

9* Under 1.5 Rds Rockhold-Bisping (11:59 ET):  This is a title fight at 185 lbs (Middleweight). Champion Luke Rockhold was originally set to defend against the man he beat for the title, Chris Weidman, but plans were changed due to injury. So Michael Bisping takes the opportunity on short notice.  Few, if any, are giving him much of a chance based primarily on how he was dominated the first time these two met.  I expect a pretty short fight here and am on the Under 1.5 rounds.

It was November of 2014 when these two first met and Rockhold stopped Bisping in the first minute of Round 2 via guillotine choke. Bisping hasn't lost since, including the biggest win of his career (Anderson Silva) in February.  His three-fight win streak has come all by decisions.  While he's been stopped only two times since '09, the step up in class, on short notice, has to be accounted for.  The problem is that Bisping doesn't have the edge either standing or on the ground and can be easily finished in either fashion.  With a full camp, he didn't last long against Rockhold the first time.  Taking this fight on short notice had to be done because of what is on the line, but Bisping is in no better position to win or even last long.

Rockhold is set to dominate this Middleweight Division.  Maybe not to the degree Anderson Silva once did, but he's stopped his last five opponents and only the fight where he won the title went past the second round.  Only three of his 17 career fights have gone past the second round and incredibly, 12 of them have ended in the first round.  Bisping may escape the first round, but the longest this one goes is early in the second.   9* Under 1.5 Rds Rockhold-Bisping

8* San Jose (8:05 ET):  This is must-win territory for the Sharks, who are down 0-2. But the series now shifts back home where they've won six of seven.  It's not like they've been dominated by the Penguins as both games were decided by one goal w/ the game winners scored in the final minutes of regulation and in overtime respectively. It is pretty crazy that Pittsburgh has outshot its opponent in 11 consecutive contests.  But here on home ice, San Jose is holding opponents to an average of just 25.4 shots per game for the season. I look for the Pens to be outshot here and for the Sharks to notch their first ever win in a Stanley Cup Finals. 

The Sharks' home vs. road dichotomy was always pretty interesting to me throughout the course of the season.  Though they actually finished below .500 at home and had the league's best road record, the numbers suggested they actually played better at home. At least they were better at controlling the puck on home ice as they are outshooting visitors on average, 32.0 to 25.4, which would lead one to believe they should have a better record here than just .500.  So I'm not surprised at all that they've been a lot better on home ice in the playoffs than they were in the regular season.   Pittsburgh hasn't been held below 30 shots since Game 3 of the Washington series, but I'm calling for that to happen here.

Something that has to be mentioned here is that Pittsburgh has not played a game outside of the Eastern Time Zone since January 18th - when they visited St. Louis!  They haven't been out to the West Coast since early December, which predates HC Mike Sullivan's tenure.   They did win their lone visit here to San Jose on 12.1, 5-1, but were actually outshot that game 34-29.  With this being the first time that San Jose has ever hosted a Stanley Cup Finals game, expect the home ice advantage to play a deciding factor here and for Martin Jones to outplay Matt Murray in goal.  8* San Jose

10* Under Giants/Cardinals (7:15 ET):  Runs were fairly scarce last night in the series opener and I expect that to be the case once again Saturday night in St. Louis. Giants' starter Johnny Cueto overcame a season-high five walks to hold the Cardinals to just one run over six innings and the bullpen took it from there. The fact that the final score ended up being 5-1 is a little misleading as SF put three runs on the board in the top of the ninth.  In terms of run prevention, the Giants have allowed just 2.7 rpg w/ opponents hitting .179 against them the L7 games. I expect tonight's starter Jeff Samardzija to continue that trend.

On the road this season, Samardzija has been a favorite of Under bettors w/ six of his seven starts going that way and the one that did not was a push.  He's actually off a disappointing showing where he allowed five runs to Atlanta.  But considering he'd allowed just 6 ER total in his previous five starts to that one, I expect he'll bounce back in this spot.  Only two times in 10 starts this year has Samardzija allowed more than 3 ER. He has a 2.84 ERA and 1.092 WHIP.  Only twice in the L26 games has a San Francisco starter allowed more than 3 ER!  Samardzija has a 2.12 ERA his L5 starts vs. St. Louis. 

The only thing that concerns me here, in terms of the Under, is the recent string of performances by Cardinals' starter Michael Wacha.  However, he pitched better his last time out, giving up just three runs on four hits in 6 IP and he has dominated the Giants throughout his career to the tune of a 0.47 ERA in three starts.  In terms of run support, the Cards have now scored only one run in B2B contests and are batting below .200 in their last four losses.  10* Under Giants/Cardinals

6* Washington (4:05 ET):  Considering the two teams involved here and who is on the mound for the favorite, this price is actually a bargain.  Now, the Nationals did lose to the Reds yday, 7-2, but that only serves to help keep the price down here as I fully anticipate the Nats bouncing back w/ Stephen Strasburg on the mound. With the Cubs losing the last start made by Jake Arrieta, Strasburg now stands as the "king of the hill" in MLB w/ an 11-0 team start record to go along w/ his 2.69 ERA and 1.086 WHIP.   The Reds, off a win, are a good bet to regress considering they still have MLB's worst run differential (-93). They've actually won three straight, which is shocking, but twice before have failed to win four in a row this season.

Strasburg allowed just one run in six innings against St. Louis his last time out. Compared to his two previous outings, strikeout numbers were way down (only four after 21 in B2B starts vs. Mets).  Those 4 K's actually tied a season-low.  But in terms of striking out, the Reds lineup is in the top 10.  The most important thing is that the Nats have won Strasburg's last 15 starts, going back to last September, and his 2.20 ERA since June 23, 2015 is topped by only Arrieta and the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw.  With Strasburg on the hill, the Nats have outscored opponents 77-29 this year.  The team had won four straight before yday's surprising loss. So again, I fully anticipate them bouncing back in this spot.

Winning four straight is something the Reds have yet to do this year and w/ Dan Straily opposing Strasburg, achieving the feat here seems quite unlikely.  Straily, who allowed five runs his last time out, walks far too many batters for my liking.  Too often, he records outs via fly ball rather than ground ball, which is also a concern.  The Reds have predictably dropped both games this season when they've been a home underdog of +175 or higher on the money line while the Nats are not only 3-1 as a road fave of -175 or higher, they're 11-3 in that price range the L3 seasons. 6* Washington

    

8* Chi White Sox (4:05 ET):  Throughout the course of a season, most pitchers will run into a stretch where they go two straight starts w/o a win. But the White Sox' Chris Sale is not most pitchers.  He'd opened the year by winning nine in a row and considering he still has a 2.29 ERA and 0.877 WHIP, I don't think that anything is wrong here.  It certainly wasn't his fault that the team lost his last time out as he gave them a big lead by allowing just two runs in seven innings, only for the bullpen to implode in spectacular fashion.  Here, it is a pitching mismatch of epic proportions as Sale is opposed by Mike Pelfrey, who is winless in 10 starts w/ a 5.64 ERA and 1.785 WHIP.  This is a fairly obvious call to me.

Mirroring their ace's own results, the White Sox got off to that great start in 2016, but have hit the skids recently.  After losing six in a row, they did win B2B games over the Mets earlier in the week, but then it was a step backwards yday w/ a 10-3 loss here in Detroit. It should be noted that it was another bad night for the bullpen, which allowed six runs.  But despite what happened his last time out, Sale being on the hill here should minimize the impact of the bullpen. He's already gone the distance three times this year. He also loves pitching at Comerica Park where he has a 1.37 ERA his last three starts here.

As for Pelfrey, he actually hasn't won a start going all the way back to last August, a span of 18 outings.  In terms of durability (among other factors), he can't come close to matching Sale as he has gone 6+ innings only once in his last six starts overall.  He was w/ Minnesota last year, so he faced Chicago multiple times, and it didn't go well w/ a 5.40 ERA in three starts.  The Tigers had lost five of six going into yday, so it's not like they've been playing well either. Though separated by just 2.5 games in the standings, the White Sox still have a +16 run differential while the Tigers are -10.  8* Chi White Sox

    

5* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET):  You probably don't need me to tell you that this does not shape up as a promising weekend for the Braves, an awful team to begin with, who must pay a visit to Chavez Ravine.  After losing three of four earlier this week to the Cubs (at Wrigley), this represents a dramatic drop in class for Dodger blue, who surrendered more than two runs for just the second time in the last 10 games yday. Atlanta comes in as the lowest scoring team in all of baseball and w/ Kenta Maeda on the bump for the home team, this should be an easy one.

After a dominant first four starts, Maeda regressed a little, giving up exactly four runs in four of his next five outings. But he was back to dominating last Saturday vs. the Mets as he tossed five scoreless innings of two-hit ball.  That was a game where LA benefited from Noah Syndergaard being ejected early, but still, it ended up being a 9-1 victory.  Like I said earlier, the Dodgers have not been giving up many runs of late and facing the scuffling Braves should not change that. Atlanta has scored only 166 runs this year in 53 games. To put that number in perspective, there are only four other teams that have scored fewer than 200 runs this year and three of them have at least 195.  The Dodgers have scored 232 in 55 games.

So Maeda has allowed 2 ER or fewer in six of 10 starts and none at all four times. Juilo Teheran has actually done his best to keep the Braves in games, but it hasn't been enough w/ this terrible offense and somehow he has a team start record of 2-9.  That's not fair, but this is an instance where I can't project progression to the mean as the team is just so bad.  One of Teheran's shortest stints of this season came on April 20th when he lasted just 5 1/3 innings against the Dodgers.  That result brings the Dodgers to 6-0 all-time against Teheran and in the first five, his ERA was 7.36.  The Braves had yet to score more than four runs in any game started by Teheran this season.  5* LA Dodgers

full analysis soon

8* Houston (8:10 ET):  Oakland comes into this series having won five straight (longest active win streak in MLB!), but let's not give them too much credit as they're off a sweep of the lowly Twins - at home.  Prior to this current win streak, the club had lost seven of eight.  They still own the American League's second worst run differential at -42 (ahead of only Minnesota), so this is hardly an opponent worth fearing, even at this price.  Houston has been a massive disappointment so far, but at least got its last series over early yday (lost 3-0 to Arizona) and gets to stay at home this weekend.  They're a perfect 2-0 off a shutout loss so far in 2016 and I expect them to run that record to 3-0 after tonight.

The A's have not been a good read team so far this year, dropping 13 of their last 18 away from home. Starting pitching has been the main source of blame during that downfall w/ the rotation posting an 8.42 ERA. True to form, tonight's starter (Jesse Hahn) has made one road start and it did not go very well.  He allowed five runs in 5 1/3 IP while walking four batters in a 5-2 loss to Baltimore.  As a team, Oakland has lost four of its last five games here in Houston.  They're allowing a ghastly 6.0 rpg on the road for the year as well.

When these teams met earlier this season, in Oakland, it was the A's taking two of three.  But the one pitcher who won for the Astros in that series is on the bump again tonight, that being Doug Fister, who held the A's to just one run over 6 2/3 innings back on May 1st.  Fister is coming off an outstanding May overall as the team won all six of his starts w/ him posting a 2.84 ERA.  Houston had its own five-game win streak snapped yday and what's impressive about theirs is that all the wins came on the road. This team is due to turn things around (still five games below .500, especially here at home, and they've got the better run differential ("only" -24) compared to the A's, which should tell you something right there.  8* Houston

full analysis soon

7* NY Mets (7:10 ET):  When looking over the daily MLB card, I'm always drawn to pitchers whose numbers indicate they are deserving of a better team start record. One such starter for Friday is the Mets' Noah Syndergaard, who despite a 1.87 ERA and 0.973 WHIP has seen his team win only six of the 10 times he's taken the mound in 2016. Lately though, Syndergaard has really been making it difficult for opposing hitters as he checks in w/ an 0.00 ERA and 0.793 WHIP his L3 starts! The Mets still found a way to lose one of those games, that being the last one as Syndergaard was ejected in the second inning. But I think the Marlins, a team he dominated earlier this year, are in trouble tonight as they had to play yday while the Mets did not.

Back on April 12th, Syndergaard held the Marlins to just one run over seven innings and finished w/ 12 strikeouts. That type of performance is pretty indicative of what we've seen from Syndergaard all year long.  He's allowed 2 ER or fewer in 8 of his 10 starts overall and having thrown a total of just 51 pitches since May 22nd, he should be in top form again tonight.  After the ejection last Saturday, we saw Syndergaard come on as a reliever for the first time in his career, Tuesday vs. the White Sox, and there he struck out two of the three batters he faced while consistently hitting 100 mph on the radar gun. Earlier, I mentioned the day off and that's key; the Mets are a perfect 6-0 this season if they didn't play the previous day.

Now, the Mets do need to score.  That's been a problem of late as their offense has averaged just 2.4 rpg its last seven contests while batting a collective .194.  In four of the last five games, they've been held to two runs or fewer.  But facing Tom Koehler has always seemed to go well for them.  Miami's starter for Friday night posted an 8.22 ERA in five starts vs. the Mets last season and is just 2-5 in 14 career starts against them. Control issues have plagued Koehler this season as he has nearly as many walks (22) as he does strikeouts (24) in his L5 starts.  Coming off three straight wins over the Pirates, the Marlins might be feeling pretty good about themselves right now, but this is a bad matchup for them. 7* NY Mets

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET):  I was on the Indians last night and though it was looking "dicey" there for awhile, they did come through for me in the end, winning in walk off fashion. As I said in the analysis yday, this is a really big series for Cleveland, who can pull ahead of the first place Royals w/ a sweep here at Progressive Field.  They are the better team in the AL Central, at least for my money, and run differential backs me up here as the Tribe are +28 in that department for the season while KC is just +9.  Similar to yday, I see a big-time pitching edge being in favor of the home team here.  I'm on the Tribe for a second straight game. 

Danny Salazar may have only a 5-5 team start record, but he's pitched well. He has a 2.39 ERA and 1.144 WHIP in 10 starts and at home he's been at his best w/ a 1.61 ERA and 0.893 WHIP. Only one time all season has Salazar allowed more than 3 ER in an outing and that was on the road against Boston, who has the best offense (by far) in all of baseball.  He rebounded his last time out w/ a quality start vs. Baltimore, giving up only two runs in six innings.  In three career meetings vs. Kansas City, Salazar has posted a 1.35 ERA, so he has a strong history against this opponent.  Remember that the Royals are currently w/o three key hitters - Salvador Perez, Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas - in their lineup.  

As was the case w/ Yordano Ventura on Thursday, the Royals starter for Friday has overachieved this year as well. Edinson Volquez has a 7-3 TSR, but both his ERA and WHIP are clearly inferior to those of his counterpart Salazar, so again we see how misleading a pitcher's won-loss record can be.  On the road is where Volquez has struggled the most as his ERA is 6.95 and his WHIP is 1.909 in four starts.  Regardless of the location, whether it be here in Cleveland or at Kauffman Stadium, Volquez hasn't fared well against the Indians (8.31 ERA in eight career starts). He's allowed 11 home runs in those eight outings while going just 2-5. He allowed five runs (in just 4 1/3 IP) to them earlier this year, in what ended up being a 5-4 loss. By the way, in that same series, Salazar blanked the Royals for 7 2/3 innings in what ended up being a 7-1 win (for Cleveland).  More of the same here.  8* Cleveland

full analysis soon

10* Golden State (9:05 ET):  It's a rematch of last year's Finals, which were of course won by the Warriors in six games. Much will be made of the fact that the Cavaliers now have both Kyrie Irving (injured in LY's Game 1) and Kevin Love (missed the entire Finals LY) at their disposal. But will that be enough? Tonight in Oakland, I don't think so. The Warriors have actually beaten the Cavs five straight times going back to LY's Finals including a 34-pt trouncing in Cleveland during the regular season. I remain concerned about the Cavs' defense, which gave Toronto (and Atlanta, and Detroit for that matter) far too many open looks from three-point range. Though those opponents could not convert, Golden State will. Lay the points.

This could end up being just the fourth time that Golden State has been asked to lay six points or less here at home.  They are 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS previously.  Over the course of the season, this team has outscored its opponents by an impressive 14.2 points per game at Oracle Arena.  They've only lost here three times total.  The Cavs dropped two games in Toronto in the last series, not a good sign here.  On a game-by-game basis, favorites have generally dominated in these playoffs, cashing at virtually a 60% clip (46-32-2 ATS).

The Cavs defense is a concern as they are allowing 102.9 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs and that number came down several points after the Game 6 win over Toronto. I also do not believe they can continue their extraordinary shooting from three-point range. They've actually been better than the Warriors from behind the arc in the playoffs, but I'm not sure that will be the case by the time this series is over.  While it's extremely rare to catch Cleveland in this price range, the fact is that they haven't been challenged like GSW was by OKC in the Western Conference Finals and I think the Warriors have had enough time to recover (27-12 ATS when playing w/ exactly two days' rest).  10* Golden State

10* Over Mariners/Padres (9:10 ET): All it took was Felix Hernandez being scratched from last night's scheduled start to completely change the complexion of the game.  Fill-in James Paxton was a disaster as he allowed six runs in the first inning, five of them unearned. San Diego would go on to win 14-6, a nice bounce back from their 16-4 loss in Seattle on Tuesday (where I had the Mariners).  As for tonight's game, seeing as we've seen 20 runs scored in each of the last two games, I think there's only one way to go here & that's Over.  Even Monday's series opener saw 12 total runs scored, so this series certainly hasn't lacked in scoring.  With two struggling starters and a low number, this O/U line simply looks off.

The Mariners could have scored more yday, but left the bases loaded in the first.  This is a team that comes in averaging 7.9 rpg its last seven contests and while that's obviously inflated by Tuesday's outburst, note that they are scoring 5.0 rpg for the year and 5.4 rpg on the road. That's bad news for Padres starter Colin Rea, who has a 6.00 ERA and 1.467 WHIP his L3 starts.  Rea hasn't lasted longer than five innings in any of those three outings and the San Diego bullpen has generally been pretty terrible this season.   Seattle has a total of 28 hits the last two games.   Rea was sent back down to the minors, missing his last turn in the rotation, but he pitched only one inning, so I hardly think we'll be getting a different pitcher here.

Seattle's Wade Miley has a 5.06 ERA and 1.500 WHIP his L3 starts. Those numbers aren't much higher than his YTD marks and he's allowed a total of nine runs in his L10 innings of work.  In six of his 10 starts this year, Miley has allowed at least four runs.  He allowed three home runs in his last start, the second time this year he's done that.  The Over is 6-3 in Miley's nine starts, same as it is in Rea's nine starts.   All signs point to an Over here.  10* Over Mariners/Padres

6* Colorado (8:40 ET):  I've had my "finger on the pulse" of this series as not only did I cash the Rockies on Tuesday, but I had the Under yday (Reds won 7-2).  As I said in my analysis Tuesday, betting against Cincinnati when they're off a win is probably a good idea.  Not only does this team have - by far - the worst run differential in all of MLB (-105), but they haven't posted B2B wins in nearly a month. They'll also be sending the struggling Alfredo Simon to the mound. He has an ERA of 11.48 and a WHIP of 2.401 his last three starts. Pitching at Coors Field, it's unlikely he'll turn into Cy Young overnight.

I was surprised that the Rockies fared so poorly last night w/ Tyler Chatwood on the hill.  Tonight, they turn to Eddie Butler, who has less impressive numbers but has also alternated good and bad starts over his last four. He's "due" for a good one here after allowing four runs (on only four hits) in 5 IP vs. San Francisco on Saturday.  Prior to that, he'd allowed only two runs (one unearned) against Pittsburgh, a formidable offensive team. Butler figures to get plenty of offensive support here and I just can't see the Reds lineup producing in B2B days. Cincy is only 1-14 this year as a ML road underdog of +150 to +200.

Among starters who have pitched at least 30 innings this year, Simon has the highest ERA in all of MLB (9.15).  In seven of his nine starts, he's failed to go longer than five innings, which means trouble as the Reds bullpen is just atrocious (7.43 ERA, 1.900 WHIP on the road). Simon himself has saved his worst for the road as he has a 13.85 ERA and 2.846 WHIP in four starts. Expect Colorado, who averages 5.8 rpg at home, to score early and often in this one.  Note that Cincinnati has not won a four-game series here in Denver since 1998!  6* Colorado

    

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET):   It hasn't been a particularly impressive homestand so far for the Indians, who were able to take only one game against both the Orioles and Rangers. But they can atone for that here in what shapes up as a very important weekend series vs. division rival Kansas City. While much of Cleveland will be focused on the NBA Finals, the Tribe actually has a chance to pull into first place in the AL Central if they were to sweep here. They've been the better team over the course of the year compared to the Royals and have the run differential to prove it (+27 to +10).  KC has been hot (won six straight) but the entirety of the win streak has come at home and they did drop two of three here at Progressive Field earlier this year. They are just 11-15 on the road overall.

Tonight's game marks the return of Carlos Carrasco to the Cleveland starting rotation. What a welcome sight he will be.  Prior to landing on the DL w/ a hamstring injury, Carrasco has posted a 2.45 ERA and 0.955 in four starts w/ the team winning all of them.  As per usual, he's averaging about a strikeout per inning and the really good news here is that he dominated Kansas City last year even though the Royals were en route to winning the World Series.  In four starts, Carrasco was 4-0 w/ a 1.55 ERA LY vs. KC.  He'll be working on a pitch count here, but I'm confident that he'll put his team in a position to win.

Starting here for Kansas City will be Yordano Ventura and quite frankly he should feel very fortunate to have a 7-3 team start record.  He has a 5.17 ERA and 1.527 WHIP and the team has won all three times that Ventura has not factored into the decision. Furthermore, he was rocked his last time out, giving up seven runs and nine hits in just 7 IP.  Emblematic of his season, the Royals still found a way to win that game, 8-7 over the White Sox (Chicago bullpen imploded).  Ventura was also rocked when he faced Cleveland earlier this year as he gave up five runs in only four innings.  The Royals lost that game, 7-1.  Since the start of last season, Ventura hasn't lasted longer than 5 1/3 innings in any of his three starts vs. Cleveland and has a 7.53 ERA.  8* Cleveland

10* Under Reds/Rockies (8:40 ET):  I had the Rockies yday and boy did they ever come through for me, winning 17-4.  As you might expect, with two generally terrible pitching staffs in play, both games of this series have now been high scoring (Reds won Monday's opener, 11-8). But Wednesday's starter for the Rockies, Tyler Chatwood, at least inspires a little confidence and there's probably no way that the Reds' Jeremy Lamb can be any worse than he's been of late. Thus, I'll make the somewhat surprising call of "Under" for tonight's rubber match at Coors Field.

Rockies' home games are averaging a whopping 13.7 runs so far, so we're going to need to trim some scoring off here. Chatwood is a good place to start. He allowed only one unearned run his last time out - and only four hits - in a 5-2 win over the Giants. Now, it could obviously be pointed out that game took place in San Francisco. But note that in his last start here at Coors Field, Chatwood again allowed only one run, this time on six hits in six innings of work. In eight of his 10 starts this season, Chatwood has allowed 3 ER or less. Three times he hasn't allowed a single run at all.  The Under is 8-2 in those 10 starts, including 4-1 here at home and 3-0 his L3 overall.

The numbers are atrocious for Reds' starter Jeremy Lamb.  He's been killed in both road starts and now has a 10.53 ERA and 2.268 WHIP his L3 starts overall.  Even pitching at hitter-friendly Coors, I don't see the numbers getting any worse though.  The Rockies matched a season-high w/ 17 runs yday and tied a franchise record w/ SEVEN home runs.  Those numbers are obviously going to come down.  Note that after scoring 17 runs in a game vs. the Giants earlier this year, Colorado fell back down to Earth and scored only four the next game.  This is a classic case of taking advantage of the previous day's results and getting some good value.  10* Under Reds/Rockies

9* San Jose (8:05 ET):  Though the Sharks failed to come through for me in Game 1, I'm back on them again in Game 2 as I don't envision them falling into an early two-goal hole again, nor do I see the shot discrepancy being so one-sided (was 41-26 in Pittsburgh' favor in Gm 1). Yes, throughout these playoffs, I have harped on the fact that winning the edge in shots is typically a solid predictor of future results. But San Jose is the best road team in the league (33-18) and is allowing just 27.8 shots per game in the postseason.  Look for them to even the Stanley Cup Finals up at a game apiece.

Going back to the Washington series, the Penguins have actually finished w/ the edge in shots for 10 consecutive games. That's very impressive. But do not be surprised if that streak comes to a halt tonight against the physical, hard-checking Sharks.  For all their dominance in terms of number of shots on goal, the Pens have been a little bit lucky this postseason to go 7-3 straight up in one-goal games. So, there hasn't necessarily been a translation from the edge in shots to the actual scoreboard.  They are only 4-3 in the playoffs when leading the series.

Game 1 was tied with under three minutes to go in regulation, remember.  Early on, the Penguins speed definitely gave the Sharks some trouble, but they adjusted and I think will be ready for it tonight.  The 41 shots Martin Jones faced in Game 1 were the most he's seen in regulation the entire postseason. So that number should come down.  Following a loss, San Jose is 5-1 in the playoffs this year.  Their last four times in that situation, they have outscored opponents by a commanding 20-4 margin.   9* San Jose

5* Washington (7:05 ET):  I simply have little regard for an overachieving Phillies team that should feel incredibly fortunate to even be at .500 right now.  Their YTD run differential is -48 and based solely on that, you would expect them to be 14 games BELOW .500! No team has "overachieved" more to this point and the key for the Phils has been a MLB-best 14-5 record in one-run games. Keep in mind that run differential is currently fifth worst in all of baseball! Signs of regression have already begun to set in as they've now lost five in a row after falling yday here at home, 5-1 at home to the Nationals, who I expect to finish off the three-game sweep tonight.

Max Scherzer gives his team a big advantage in this series finale.  Scherzer has been a little unlucky thus far. You can tell that by the fact he has a 4.05 ERA, but a 1.091 WHIP.  His last start was emblematic of that discrepancy as he only allowed three hits in seven innings, but still gave up five runs.  There were some atypical control issues (four walks), but consider that in his previous three starts Scherzer had posted 38-3 KW ratio.  His WHIP over his L3 starts is 0.891.  He has also dominated Philadelphia throughout his career, going 5-0 w/ a 1.65 ERA against them since his rookie season. In four starts here in Philly, he's allowed just four runs in 21 IP and has 22 K's.

Walks and home runs have hurt Scherzer this year, but fortunately for him the Phils have hit only 13 HR's at home this year and are baseball's lowest scoring team at home overall (2.8 rpg).   It also helps that the beleaguered Adam Morgan will be starting opposite him. Take away two starts vs. Atlanta and Morgan has a 10.26 ERA this year w/ 27 hits allowed in just 16 2/3 innings.  Last time out, he gave up six runs in just four innings vs. the Cubs.  He now has a 9.88 ERA and 1.902 WHIP his L3 starts overall.  The Phillies are "due" to keep regressing as they are one of the worst teams in baseball, no matter what the record says.  5* Washington

    

5* NY Mets (1:10 ET):  For the 1st time in a week, the White Sox won a game, beating the Mets 6-4 yday. But don't look for the "good times" to last here as they are going up against Jacob deGrom in the finale of a three-game set in Queens.  What ills this club is far from cured and today's early start time would certainly seem to favor the home team (who is 12-4 in day games this season).  Then there is the fact that the White Sox did not win a single road series in the month of May.  DeGrom has not lost at Citi Field this year, posting a 4-0 TSR w/ a 2.25 ERA and 1.042 WHIP.

Things did not get off to a very good start for Chicago yday as they fell behind early, 4-0, and appeared to be well on their way to an eighth straight defeat. But a bullpen, which has struggled badly over the week, did its job and kept the team in the game, allowing the offense the opportunity to rally.  Still though, the Sox are only 5-15 their L20 games.  I'm not expecting much here from starter Miguel Gonzalez, who has seen the team lose each of his last three starts. Plus, he has a 4.91 ERA and 1.682 WHIP on the road this season.

deGrom is off a strong outing, here at home, as he allowed just one run and three hits over 7 IP against the Dodgers.  Remember that a White Sox lineup that already isn't hitting much loses the DH in this series because it's a NL park.  Only once this season (in eight starts) has deGrom given up more than 3 ER.  Going back to the day game factor, the Mets are now 75-43 in them the L3 seasons while the White Sox are 55-82.  Advantage home team. 5* NY Mets

8* Colorado (8:40 ET):  This battle of NL also-rans is unlikely to attract much attention, but I anticipate the Rockies will be able to bounce back from an 11-8 loss yday to the lowly Reds. Colorado isn't a team that I endorse often, but as the odds show, this is a game and series they theoretically should dominate.  Now with Cincinnati off a win, it's a good time to play against as they are just 6-10 in that role this season, not to mention 5-19 on the road.  The Reds - by far - have the worst run differential in all of baseball (-97) and I just can't see them making it two in a row here.

The Reds' typically weak-hitting lineup took advantage of the thin air here at Coors Field and hit a season-high five home runs yesterday as they erased an early 5-1 deficit.  Their 17 hits in the game also marked a season-high.  Interestingly, Colorado's pitching staff had previously allowed the fewest number of home runs in all of baseball in the month of May (just 15). Maybe it was the early start time that was beneficial to Cincy as they are just 6-28 in night games. Regardless, regression should be in the works tonight as Rockies starter Jon Gray has actually been really sharp in four of his last five starts, including his last one where he allowed just two runs and five hits (in 7 1/3 IP) against one of the best offenses in all of baseball (Boston).

Cincinnati will be going with Jon Moscot, who is making his return from a month long stint on the DL.  The team lost all three of his starts in April w/ him posting a 4.02 ERA and 1.404 WHIP. I earlier mentioned the Reds' struggles on the road and the current price range has been really unfriendly as they are winless (0-7) this season when in the +150 to +175 range on the money line.  Furthermore, never discount just how truly awful the Reds' bullpen can be as they have a 7.04 ERA and 1.860 WHIP on the road this year.  8* Colorado

8* Cleveland (6:10 ET):  I am not the least bit surprised that in his two starts, Corey Kluber has beaten both the Red Sox (current AL East leaders) and White Sox (at the time AL Central leaders) on the road.  The 2014 Cy Young winner was certainly "due" for things to start going his way after an incomprehensible 14-27 team start record since the start of last season. In those last two starts, Kluber allowed just four runs (one unearned) in 14 1/3 IP.  The team might still be only 4-6 w/ him on the mound this year, but I'll look for Kluber to inch closer to the .500 mark after tonight as I look for the Indians to beat the Rangers, avenging last night's poor showing. 

It was a 9-2 Texas win yday as the previously unbeaten Josh Tomlin suffered his first loss of the season for Cleveland.  Tomlin simply "didn't have it" as it was 9-0 Rangers after the fourth inning.  It certainly didn't help matters that the team was charged w/ four errors either.  This team's fielding had improved rather dramatically over the course of the last year (can be traced back to the call-up of Francisco Lindor), so that was probably just a blip (three of the errors came from 3B Juan Uribe) and Kluber will give us a better start than Tomlin did.  In two career starts vs. Texas, Kluber has posted a 2.57 ERA.

Yesterday we saw one pitcher fall from the ranks of the unbeaten (Tomlin) and today I suspect the same will happen with the Rangers' Colby Lewis.  Lewis might be 4-0, but his team start record is 6-4 and he's coming off his worst outing of the year, one where he allowed six runs in just five innings vs. the Angels.  Fortunately, the offense was able to bail him out in what ended up being a 15-9 Rangers' win, but if past history is any indication, then Lewis is probably going to need a ton of help again tonight as he has not fared well in the past here at Progressive Field where his ERA is 11.74.   The Texas offense though, save for last night, simply isn't as prolific on the road as it is at home.  8* Cleveland

    

8* Seattle (3:40 ET):  After a very disappointing weekend (swept at home by the Twins!), the Mariners responded by beating San Diego 9-3 yday in the opener of a four-game set. The first two games take place here at Safeco Field, which actually hasn't been too big an advantage for the M's so far this year as they are just 11-14 in their home park. But nevertheless this remains a formidable ballclub as their +53 run differential is third best in all of MLB. The Padres, meanwhile, are not a strong club (20-32, -42) and this being a day game does them no favors considering they have a 3-14 record in the daytime so far this season. I look for Seattle (currently 4-0 vs. the NL) to stay perfect in Interleague Play.

Though Seattle didn't really pull away until the eighth inning yday, they have generally had the upper hand in this IL rivalry. They've taken six of nine meetings since 2014, including four of the last five.  San Diego starter James Shields is just 5-5 all-time vs. the Mariners, including splitting a pair of decisions in 2015.  Shields has a pretty nice ERA his L3 starts overall (1.83), but that doesn't reflect the actual number of baserunners he's allowed during that time (24 in 19 2/3 IP).  Of course, it also hasn't helped that Shields has received some of the worst run support in all of baseball (1.95 per start).  The Padres offensive struggles are of course not unique to when Shields starts; they've been shut out more times than any other team in baseball. Dating back to last year, Shields has a 2-8 TSR his L10 starts.

Though these teams meet every year, Hisashi Iwakuma has actually never gotten a chance to face San Diego.  Now is probably as good a time as any for his first shot as Iwakuma is coming off B2B quality outings, including a 13-3 win vs. Oakland last Wednesday.  The Padres have not scored more than four runs in any of their last 10 games against the Mariners. In half of those games (five times), they've been held to one or no runs.  Overall, SD has dropped 11 of 14 games and as I mentioned before, they really struggle in the daytime (.213 team batting average). 8* Seattle

full analysis soon

10* San Jose (8:05 ET): I'm going with the dog in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals. To me, the Sharks come out of the tougher conference, thus their 12-6 record is more impressive than the Penguins same mark.  Pittsburgh did outshoot Tampa Bay in every game of the last series, but they caught the Lightning severely outmanned as not only was Steven Stamkos unavailable, goaltender Ben Bishop went down with a series-ending injury in Game 1. The Sharks have been a great road team all year, going 33-17. 

San Jose also allowed an average of only 24.2 shots the last five games vs. St. Louis.  In terms of both Fenwick and Corsi, this was a strong team all year, thus it's going to be more of a challenge for Pittsburgh to outshoot them.  The road team did win both regular season matchups, though both were played before the Penguins got red hot. One other big key for the Sharks is their power play, which has gone 17 of 63 (27 percent) for the best mark among playoff teams.  They are 9-2 this postseason when scoring at least one PP goal.

The goaltending situation is obviously a big deal. Rookie Matt Murray has obviously come on big for the Pens, but remember he hadn't been playing all that well prior to being benched in the Lightning series.  Will this stage be too big for him?  I've really been impressed w/ the way Martin Jones has looked for San Jose as his .919 save percentage somewhat undersells the job he has done here as at one point he turned in three shutouts in four games.  The Sharks went 20-12 vs. the East this year, the Penguins were only 14-14 vs. the West.  10* San Jose

full analysis soon