8* Wake Forest (8:00 ET): These are certainly two teams trending in opposite directions with Georgia Tech coming in on a 5-game SU win streak (also 6-0 ATS L6) and Wake Forest now 0-6 ATS its last six games and 0-5 SU its L5. Furthermore, the Yellow Jackets already own a 70-54 win (at home) against the Demon Deacons. That game took place back on January 3rd. You may recall I used GT two weeks ago when they travelled to Va Tech and won 69-53. They’ve since prevailed against Duke and Syracuse, both of those wins coming in Atlanta. The key here is the Yellow Jackets aren’t this big of a favorite very often. 

This point spread is a clear byproduct of recent form as Wake Forest is off five consecutive double digit defeats. It’s admittedly been a BRUTAL stretch as both Clemson and Va Tech held them under 50 points, then came a loss to a bad Pitt team (on Tuesday) that had one of its best players just recently transfer. But I don’t think the Demon Deacons are as bad as some of these scores show. They’d actually covered seven of eight before the 6-game ATS slide, showing how volatile the point spread can be. That 7-1 ATS stretch included them taking Florida State into overtime. 

Georgia Tech is now firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble after snapping a 14-game losing streak to Duke. The Yellow Jackets won that game 81-77 in overtime after blowing a seven-point lead in the final 30 seconds of regulation. They’ve now clinched a first round bye in the ACC Tournament, which is huge. But this just REEKS of a letdown game and the only time they’ve been favored by this many points in ACC play is when they HOSTED Wake in early January. The fact the line is basically the same on the road means there’s value on the home dog and I’m going to take it. Ga Tech is just 3-5 SU on the road this season. 8* Wake Forest

10* Hawaii (7:00 ET): I’ve got Hawaii rated as the better team here and I don’t think whatever “home court advantage” exists in 2021 is enough to justify UC Davis being a slight favorite in this Big West matchup Friday night. UC Davis is on a five-game win streak, but three of the last four victories have been by two points with two of them coming in overtime. Hawaii has also been successful in close games recently as their last three victories have been by a total of six points. But they are 0-6 ATS L6 and I think they’re due to end that unusual streak. 

Hawaii swept its two games with Long Beach State last weekend, winning 78-76 and 79-76. Those games took place out in Honolulu and both times the Warriors had to rally from halftime deficits. This will be just the second trip to the mainland since the end of January. The other one resulted in a split of two games with CS Northridge. Having been favored in each of its last four games, I see some value on Hawaii here against a UC Davis team that often struggles to defend. 

The host Aggies are allowing opponents to shoot 49.3% for the year when they are at home. Now the defense has gotten a bit better during the five-game win streak as they’ve allowed more than 66 just once. At the same time though, they’re not shooting the ball that well, which has been an issue throughout conference play (40.9 FG%). Hawaii has taken 7 of the last 10 meetings, including all four the previous two seasons. A case of the better team getting points here tonight. 10* Hawaii

8* Over Warriors/Suns (10:05 ET): Golden State has now lost two in a row. They usually come up big in this spot and by “usually,” I actually mean “always” as they’ve yet to lose three games in a row at any point this season. Ironically, these B2B defeats came on the heels of the Dubs’ first three-game WIN streak of the season. They fell last night in Portland 108-106. That they weren’t able to score more points against a bad defensive team like the Blazers has to be viewed as terribly disappointing.

Building off last year’s perfect run in the NBA “bubble” the Suns are definitely a team you want to pay attention to in the Western Conference. Winners of 15 of their last 18 games, including the last three, they are now in second place ahead of both the Clippers and Lakers. They just beat the Lakers 114-104 on Tuesday. It was the third straight game and fifth time in the last six that they held the opposition to 104 or lower. That’s really impressive, but six of their last eight games (including vs. the Lakers) have still gone Over. 

The Under is 6-0 the L6 times these teams have met. The most recent meeting took place in late January and saw Phoenix win 114-93. Golden State had a dreadful shooting night there, but I expect better from them tonight as they are still quite capable of a big night, like when they made over 60% against Charlotte last week. Outside of Steph Curry, no one stepped up last night. Expect a player or two to step up here and Phoenix is shooting 50% its L5 games. 8* Over Warriors/Suns

10* Arizona State (9:00 ET): FYI - this game will be broadcast on ESPN2. Arizona State and Colorado both come into tonight on three-game winning streaks. However, that’s where the similarities end as the season has gone MUCH better for the Buffaloes. I’ve previously stated that I think CU is probably the best team in the Pac 12. However, if there is a “bone to pick” in Boulder, it’s that the Buffs oftentimes “play down” to their competition. Coming off wins over USC and UCLA, I think that might be the case here. 

Arizona State has had a dreadful season at the betting window as they are 4-16 ATS. But the Sun Devils have not only won three straight, but also six of their last nine games. The last three were all in Tempe and they were favored against Washington twice and Washington State last Saturday. They failed to cover the last two, so they’re now 0-9 ATS the L9 times they’ve been favored. But it’s a pretty big number they’re GETTING here tonight and I like it as the Sun Devils have suffered only three double digit losses since 2021 began. 

This is also Colorado’s final regular season game (ASU has one more, at Utah) and they’ve already clinched a 1st round bye in the Pac 12 Tournament. So the tendency for a “let down” is even more prevalent. It’s not like Senior Night means what it normally does. The Buffaloes have already lost to Cal and Washington as a big favorite and while those came on the road, they are still just 1-7 ATS when facing a team with a losing record past the 15-game mark in the L3 seasons. 10* Arizona State

8* Over Heat/Pelicans (8:35 ET): I realize that Miami sometimes can be a low-scoring team (finished with just 80 points Tuesday vs. Atlanta), but New Orleans’ games almost always end up being high-scoring and that’s how I think this one will end up. The Pelicans have seen 11 of their last 12 games stay Under the total. The exception was a 117-114 loss to San Antonio where the O/U line was 232. That is the only time in the last seven games NO failed to score at least 120 points. 

Miami has been held to 85 points or less six different times this year, which is the most in the entire league. But the 80 they scored Tuesday marked a new season-low as they couldn’t hit “water from a boat” early on, especially from behind the arc. They missed 13 of their first 15 three-point attempts and were never really in the game. You’ve gotta expect better shooting tonight, even if Bam Adebayo and/or Jimmy Butler sit. It helps that they are facing a Pelicans team that is 29th in defensive efficiency and lets teams hit nearly 40% from 3-pt range. 

New Orleans is also coming off a loss, theirs by a score of 128-124 to Chicago. The fact the Pelicans have scored 120 or more in seven of their last nine games, but gone only 4-5 SU should tell you all you need to know about their defensive capabilities. Not surprisingly, they have the highest Over percentage in the league. The Heat are 5-1 Over following a double digit loss at home. 8* Over Heat/Pelicans

10* Memphis (8:05 ET): This year’s Bucks team just doesn’t seem as strong compared to the previous two seasons. They are third in the Eastern Conference and were just trounced (at home) by Denver, 128-97, Tuesday night. I concede that there are several underlying metrics that indicate Milwaukee is still the best team in the East. They’ve won five in a row before the Nuggets loss. But they have a losing record on the road (7-9 SU/6-10 ATS) and tonight they are in Memphis. 

The Grizzlies have won B2B games to get back over the Mendoza Line. They are 16-15 SU on the season and in ninth place in the much tougher Western Conference. Strangely, they’ve not been all that good at home (7-10 SU), although they did recently defeat the Clippers by 28 here. Each of their last two wins were on the road and they were blowouts, particularly the one vs. Houston (133-84). More recently, they won in D.C., beating the Wizards 125-111 as a 1-point dog. 

Both teams have been dealing with some key absences of late and with this being the last game before the Break, most of those players figure to remain out. But it does look as if Kyle Anderson is set to return for the Grizz and he’s the team’s best outside shooter. Memphis has had a different leading scorer in each of its last three wins, so they don’t necessarily rely on one player. At the defensive end, they’ve allowed an average of just 102 points the L5 games. Having also scored at least 122 in three of the last four, the Grizzlies should easily cover tonight. 10* Memphis

8* Bradley (6:00 ET): I think we’ve got ourselves a “false favorite” here in the 1st round of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, meaning the WRONG team is favored. Now I’d obviously be even MORE “all in” on Bradley were they not dealing with several suspensions. But my own power ratings say the Braves should be the ones favored here over 9-seed Southern Illinois, who I think was the worst team in the entire MVC during the regular season. About a month ago, these teams split a pair of meetings in Peoria, but SIU’s win came by just a single point. 

Now those two meetings did come before the suspensions that were handed down to four Bradley players. To address the “elephant in the room,” those suspensions came about due to an ongoing police report. But the suspensions also didn’t stop the Braves from stunning Drake this past weekend, 67-61 as an 8.5-point home dog. Drake is probably a NCAA Tournament team, whether or not they win this Tournament. The previous four games had not been good for Bradley, but Saturday’s upset tells me they can still beat the worst team in the Missouri Valley. 

Southern Illinois lost a couple close ones to Loyola Chicago last weekend. One of the games even went to overtime. But this is a team that has just ONE win by greater than three points going back to the start of the 2021 calendar year! The Salukis are on a 3-0 ATS win streak right now, but were obviously huge dogs in both games against Loyola. They’ve been favored away from home (this game is in St. Louis) only one other time this season and that was the very first game (vs. SE Missouri State). Since opening 7-0 SU, they are just 4-13 SU overall. 8* Bradley

8* Idaho State (9:05 ET): While not a lot of people are going to be playing this matchup tonight, it already feels like the sharp money is on Idaho State. The Bengals are certainly not going to attract a lot of attention from the public, but this is a great spot to take them. They did just lose two in a row at home, both to Montana. But the games were close (decided by a total of seven points) and ISU hasn’t been this big of an underdog since it covered the spread at Utah back on December 8th. 

Now there’s a reason the spread is so large for tonight. Eastern Washington leads the Big Sky with an 11-2 SU conference record and has won its last nine games. They’ve covered the spread in the last five and are 7-2 ATS L9. But a two-week layoff probably came at the wrong time. The Eagles haven’t played since winning at Montana on February 22nd and could very well be “out of rhythm” for tonight. That’s a concern when laying such a big number at the betting window. 

Idaho State is 6-2 ATS on the road this season. For all their dominance, Eastern Washington has been asked to lay 12.5 or more points only one time at home. That was against last place Idaho, who is 1-20 SU. Idaho State is better than they are being given credit for. They are a perfect 4-0 ATS coming off a conference loss. They are tied for 4th in the Big Sky and while there’s a big gap between the top three and everyone else, it’s a respectable place to be. Take the points. 8* Idaho State

10* UNLV (9:00 ET): This is a golden opportunity for UNLV to possibly spring an upset. That may seem like a shocking statement considering how well San Diego State has played recently. But the Rebels almost always seem to give the Aztecs fits as the last four meetings have all been decided by single digits with three of those final margins being four points or less. The last time the teams met was just over a year ago and UNLV won that one (on the road) 66-63 as 14.5-point underdogs. 

The Aztecs have swept their last five opponents, winning 10 in a row overall with nine of the wins coming by 12 or more. They are ranked #19 in the latest AP Poll (#21 in Coaches). However, they’ve really been feasting on the bottom of the Mountain West with eight of those 10 victories coming against teams in the lower half of the standings. They had a lot more trouble last weekend with a good Boise State team as those wins came by just 4 and 12 points. The 12-point victory is completely misleading as that game went to OT.

SDSU’s regular season was supposed to end Saturday, but this is a make-up game. UNLV has another make-up game coming Saturday at Wyoming. So it is their final home game before the MWC Tournament (played here in Vegas). The Rebels have won three of four, including a big comeback against Fresno State on Friday. Over its last eight games, UNLV has been beaten by more than three points only one time. They are 8-3 SU at home and averaging 12.6 more PPG than they allow. Take the points. 10* UNLV

10* Over Magic/Hawks (8:05 ET): In their first game under interim coach Nate McMillan, Atlanta picked up a much needed victory last night in Miami. It didn’t take many points to do so (just 94) as the Heat were held under 85 points for a NBA-high sixth time this season (they finished with just 80). Truthfully, it didn’t take long to figure out what the final result would be. Miami opened the game by missing 13 of its first 15 three-point attempts and never really recovered. The 80 points scored were a season-low for them. 

Coming off a game like that, it may seem a little strange that I’m liking the Hawks to go Over the total tonight. But I think the number of points allowed last night had less to do with Atlanta’s defense and more with it being just an “off-night” for the Heat. For the season, the Hawks are still allowing 112.2 PPG on 46.6% shooting. They are in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. Last night was the fewest points allowed by Atlanta in a game all season. It’s a given they’ll allow many more tonight.

At the same time, I expect the Hawks own shooting to improve as well. Trae Young has been struggling recently. It’s the first time he’s gone three consecutive games without scoring at least 20 at least once. He has just 50 points in the three games. But facing a team that just gave up 130 points in its last game should change all that. Orlando has actually allowed 124+ points in three straight, so they are really struggling at that end of the floor right now. The Over is 11-5 the L16 times in Atlanta has been in a back to back. 10* Over Hawks/Magic

8* Utah (7:00 ET): Oregon State has been one of the best bets in the country over the last two months as they are 12-1-1 ATS their L14 games including six straight covers. This is actually the Beavers’ second six-game ATS win streak during that time. The first ended with a push against Washington State (they won that game by two) then they were annihilated 79-48 at Colorado. Since then, yes they are 6-0 ATS, but only 3-3 SU. OSU has won two straight, both on the road, but I feel their “mojo” runs out here as they play a third straight road game against a revenge-minded Utah squad. Lay the short number in this one. 

On Saturday, Utah showed what it is capable of as they beat USC 71-61 right here in Salt Lake City. The Utes were 4.5-point underdogs in that one, as you figured they might be considering they were up against the team many feel is the best in the Pac 12 this year. But the Utes played an almost flawless second half and went on to record its first win of the season against a Top 25 opponent. However, that’s a little misleading as they've also beaten Colorado (before the Buffaloes were ranked). 

Utah is far better than its 10-11 SU record as there have been a few losses this year where they blew large halftime leads. They’ve beaten USC, Colorado and Arizona, which is no small achievement. One team they did not beat was Oregon State as two weeks ago it was an 18-point loss in Corvallis. Interestingly enough, the Utes were favored (by two) to win that day. I think we’re getting a real “discount” on them at home tonight as the Beavers average only 62.1 PPG away from home while the Utes allow just 64.1 PPG at home. Prior to winning its last two games, OSU was just 1-6 SU in road games. 8* Utah 

10* Under Suns/Lakers (10:05 ET): Should be a good game here. The Suns are most definitely “hot” and a “team on the rise” (see what I did there?) in the Western Conference. They’ve gone 14-3 SU since Jan 28 and have established themselves as a top four team (in the West). They’ve held four of their last five opponents to 100 points or less, the lone exception being a wild loss at home to Charlotte last Wednesday. They’ve since won at both Chicago (106-97) and Minnesota (118-99). 

The challenge will obviously be greater here as the Suns face the defending NBA Champion Lakers. However, things haven’t been all that great in LA recently. There was a four-game losing streak that culminated with a beatdown at the hands of the Jazz. Clearly, LeBron James misses the injured Anthony Davis. But like what we’ve seen from Phoenix of late, the Lakers quickly got back to playing defense. They come into tonight having won two in a row as they held Portland to 93 and Golden State to 91 points. 

The Lakers are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency (by a pretty comfortable margin) and allow just 105.6 PPG. Five of their last six games have seen either they or the opponent held below 100. The one exception was an overtime loss to the Wizards, whose games are almost always high-scoring. Phoenix also happens to be in the top six in defensive efficiency and they are also second to last in tempo, meaning their games - on average - feature the second fewest number of possessions in the league. Fewer possessions = less scoring. The L4 meetings here in LA have all stayed Under. 10* Under Suns/Lakers

10* Illinois (7:00 ET): You’ve gotta hand it to Michigan. Since returning to action (season paused for 3 weeks due to COVID), the Wolverines have faced Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa and Indiana. They not only beat all four, they covered the spread in every game. They also beat Rutgers on 2/18, but were denied a cover on the final shot of the game. The end result of this is that the Wolverines are now ranked #2 in the country (thanks to Baylor losing Saturday). They’ll faced their fourth Top 25 opponent in the L16 days here and that opponent is #4 Illinois.

The Fighting Illini could again be short-handed Tuesday as leading scorer Ayo Dosunmo is still dealing with a broken nose. But they didn’t have him Saturday when they went to Madison and beat Wisconsin 74-69 as a 4.5-point dog. Nor did they have him in a 16-point win at Nebraska. They actually led wire to wire against Wisconsin, despite it being their third game in five days and not having their leading scorer. This is a team with just one loss in its last 10 games. Even before that, they always deserved to be considered among the very best teams in the country.

This number is clearly inflated in light of Dosunmu’s uncertain status. To be clear, I’m taking the points regardless. Four of the Illini’s six losses this season have been by six points or less. My own personal power rankings put this number at +4. Illinois has been an underdog only three times all season and won two of the three outright. Michigan has undoubtedly been excellent, but they are also “due” for a slip-up. Illinois is a better team than Ohio State and better defensively than Iowa. Kofi Cockburn has really stepped up in Dosunmo’s absence and if the latter can play here, consider it a bonus. 10* Illinois

8* South Carolina (6:30 ET): So, here’s the thing. For much of this season, I’ve been saying Arkansas was a whole heck of a lot better than people think. Wouldn’t you know, the Razorbacks are now on a 9-game SEC win streak and have climbed to #12 (in the country!) in the polls? Now I think they’re being slightly overrated! It’s time to “sell high” on the Hogs, at least temporarily, as they travel to Columbia Tuesday night to face a South Carolina team that’s off a 21-point win at Georgia. 

That 21-point win snapped a six-game losing streak for the Gamecocks as they are near the bottom of the SEC standings. But you wouldn’t have known that by watching them Saturday as they raced out to a double digit halftime lead and were up by as many as 25 in the 2H. There’s something about playing Georgia that brings out the best in South Carolina as they’ve now beaten the Bulldogs 10 straight times, including 83-59 earlier in the year. Now they’ll try and win B2B SEC games for the first time this season. 

I’m not convinced the home team can win outright tonight, but I do like them plus the points. Arkansas is just 4-4 SU away from Fayetteville with the two most recent wins coming by a total of six points.  The Razorbacks actually trailed LSU by 10 in the first half Saturday (this was at home) so the 8-point win was a little misleading. Keep your eyes on South Carolina’s Jermain Couisnard, who had a season-high 23 points over the weekend. Arkansas hasn’t been great defending the 3-point line on the road (allowing 40%), which is why they give up an average of 82.4 PPG away from home. This is the Gamecocks’ home finale, so they’ll be motivated. 8* South Carolina

8* Oregon (9:00 ET): Oregon has taken 9 of the last 11 meetings from Arizona, including six straight. Each of the last three have been really close, however don’t look for that to be the case tonight. It all boils down to motivation as Arizona is playing its final game due to a postseason ban. Oregon is rolling right now (won 7 of 8) and trying to lock down the top seed for the Pac 12 Tournament. Tonight should be a much easier win for the Ducks than it was in Tucson a few weeks ago. Lay the points. 

Oregon just completed a three-game road trip on Saturday with a 74-63 win over Cal as nine-point chalk. They led wire to wire. The team’s only loss in its last eight games came at the start of the road trip, exactly one week ago at USC. There’s no shame in that loss. Ever since putting the COVID issues behind them, the Ducks have really looked great and I consider them to be the third best team in the league, behind Colorado and USC. They are 9-2 here at home where they allow only 62.8 PPG. 

Arizona is 5th in the Pac 12, which is an accurate representation of where they are at in the conference pecking order. They come into tonight on a three-game win streak, which includes a win at USC, but the other two victories were against Washington State and Washington. They only won by one (75-74) on Saturday and that was against perhaps the worst team in the conference. The game-winner came with just 5.2 seconds remaining. While the Wildcats usually dominate the glass, that wasn’t the case in the 1st game with the Ducks. 8* Oregon

10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): Turns out the Jazz aren’t infallible after all as they just dropped a game in Miami Friday, 124-116 as 6.5-point favorites. Now they did immediately bounce back with a 124-109 road win against sorry Orlando. With that win and cover, Utah is now an incredible 23-3 SU and 22-4 ATS its last 26 games. But as I’ve written before, maybe we shouldn’t be *THAT* surprised about the team’s SU record considering it has gone off as the favorite in all but two games this season. 

Now the ATS record is clearly impressive and there’s no denying the Jazz have been the league’s best team to this point. They’ve outscored the opposition by 9.7 PPG. However, can they possibly continue covering the spread at this rate? I don’t think so. Tonight they are laying a hefty number to a Pelicans team that I feel is better than its overall record. New Orleans is off B2B close losses, both on the road, against Milwaukee and San Antonio. They are now just 11th in the Western Conference and five games below .500. 

Given that the Pelicans’ were the 8-seed in LY’s playoffs and expected to be better in 2020-21, their current standing has to be considered a disappointment. But, once again, I believe they are better than the record shows. Zion Williamson has been a beast and the team posted the league’s best offensive efficiency rating in the month of February. Now defense has been a much different story and facing the league’s most prolific three-point shooting team doesn’t sound like a good matchup. However, I believe the Pelicans will score enough tonight to “keep pace.” Take the points. 10* New Orleans

10* Over UMass/Saint Louis (6:00 ET): It’s been a really challenging regular season for both of these teams, even by 2020-21 standards. For UMass, the season did not even get underway until December 11th and they’ve only gotten 12 games in. Still, the Minutemen are set to finish with a winning record for the first time in six years. Saint Louis was once considered a Top 25 team, but a LONG pause in its season (played only one game in January) really seems to have set them back. No longer are the Billikens a lock to make the NCAA Tournament and they need a strong finish, not just here, but in the A-10 Tourney as well. 

Something else these teams have in common is lots of Unders. Saint Louis has gone Under in its last seven games while UMass is 5-0 Under its last five. The Minutemen are off a 75-69 loss at Richmond where they never led and shot just 25.9% from three-point range. It was only their second loss in the last seven games though. Saint Louis won on Friday, ironically against Richmond, 72-67 as they not only shot exceptionally well (54.5% from 3-pt range), but also played great defense (held Richmond to 24 first half points). 

Despite the recent rash of Unders from both teams, I see this one sneaking Over the total. UMass has five double digit scorers and is averaging 76.8 points per game. Saint Louis averages 78.9 PPG at home. The Billikens may not shoot the ball as well here as they did in their last game, but the Minutemen should see improved shooting from their performance against Richmond. Saint Louis is also a beast on the boards and should get plenty of second chance opportunities tonight. The Over is 6-0 in UMass’ last six Monday games. 10* Over UMass/Saint Louis

10* New York (8:05 ET): This is WAY too much respect for a Pistons team that is in last place in the Eastern Conference. While I don’t think Detroit is necessarily the worst team in the East, that’s a pretty low bar. Meanwhile, the Knicks may actually be for real as they battled back to defeat Indiana 110-107 last night to get back to .500 for the first time in over a month. That’s good enough for 5th in the conference, a shocking place for a team that no one expected to do well this season.

Julius Randle led the way last night with 28 points and 10 rebounds for the Knicks. It was their second consecutive win as well as the sixth in the last eight games. How is it that the Knicks are beating expectations? In a word, “defense.” They lead the entire NBA in scoring defense (shocking!) and give up 5.2 PPG fewer than the next best team in the East! Tonight they are facing one of the worst offensive teams in the league in Detroit, who is 27th in effective field goal percentage.

The Pistons fell behind by as many as 17 early against Sacramento on Friday, then ended up blowing an eight-point 4Q lead. It’s been that kind of year in the Motor City. The team has won just one of its last six and topped 107 (points) just one time in that stretch (and it wasn’t the game they won). They’re more short-handed compared to the Knicks right now and the fact the Pistons are 6-0 ATS this season vs. Atlantic Division teams seems like a statistical oddity. The key to that ATS record is they are usually big underdogs. Not here. 10* New York

10* Florida International (3:00 ET): It’s been a REALLY rough stretch for FIU as they’ve not only lost 12 in a row straight up to D-I opposition, but they’re also just 1-11 ATS in those games! The Panthers’ only win since January 8th came against Florida Memorial. What’s so odd about all of this is that they got off to a decent start to the season as they stood at 8-3 SU after the first 11 games. The bottom has completely dropped out, but for several reasons (see below) I think they’re catching today’s opponent at a most opportune time.

Western Kentucky stepped out of conference play earlier this week and that did not go well for them. They were thumped 81-57 at Houston. Now the Hilltoppers are 6-0 L6 C-USA games and Houston is a top 10 team in the country. So you’d think that WKU has nothing to “hang their heads” over and, really, they don’t. However, don’t be surprised if this turns into a bit of a “letdown” scenario. Certainly they were expecting to do better against Houston and it’ll be easy to overlook FIU.

Bottom line: it’s a boatload of points we’re getting here. I do not expect an outright upset by any means. But FIU is only being outscored by 1.1 PPG on the year. WKU is only +4.1 PPG on the year and even at home that number only jumps to +9.6. I know the Panthers’ best player just left the program, but I see the team competing on Sunday. WKU is just 5-9 ATS as a favorite, including 0-3 when laying 12.5 or more at home. 10* Florida International

7* Tottenham (9:00 AM ET): Fresh off advancing to the Europa League’s Round of 16, the Spurs return to the English top flight Sunday looking to reverse their recent Premier League form. They’ve lost five of their last six matches to drop down to ninth in the table, a position few expected them to be in. However, four of those five losses came at the hands of sides closer to the top of the table. This week they are facing bottom of the table side Burnley, who is just six points clear of safety and sitting in 15th. 

Burnley is also the EPL’s second lowest scoring side (Sheffield United) with only 18 goals scored in their 25 matches. While they are on a four-match unbeaten run here in the Premier League, three of those results have resulted in draws including a scoreless one vs. West Brom last week. They also have the fourth worst away record in the EPL and haven’t beaten Tottenham away since 1983! 

Advancing in the Europa League on an aggregate score of 8-1 should give the Spurs some confidence heading into this one. With this match to be followed by fixtures with Fulham and Crystal Palace, Tottenham definitely has a chance to inch closer to the top four. I still feel this is a better club than what they’ve shown recently on the domestic front. They should have more than enough firepower to get the full three (points) today as Burnley has been held to one goal or less in six of its last seven matches. 7* Tottenham

8* San Francisco (10:00 ET): San Francisco is a better team than what they’ve shown recently. The Dons come into this regular season finale on a five-game losing streak, although they at least covered the spread (+9.5) Thursday night at BYU. Before that, they’d failed to cover four in a row and three of those were outright losses as favorites. But most of these losses, save for when they have to face Gonzaga, have been close. I think they go into the WCC Tournament on a “high note” as it should be an easy win tonight at Pacific. 

Pacific also hasn’t had much to cheer about lately. They’ve dropped 7 of their last 10 and two of those three wins came against an atrocious Portland team that is the worst in the whole WCC. The other was against San Diego, who is in second to last place. Thursday saw the Tigers lose an ugly one, 56-48 at St. Mary’s as they were held to just 32.8% shooting including 2 of 9 from three-point range. It was also the sixth time in the last 11 Pacific games they were kept under 60 points. 

Incredibly, USF has been held to just 38.2% shooting while allowing 56.0% shooting during its five game losing streak. That can’t continue. As I just mentioned, Pacific is not a great offensive team (below 30% for the year from 3-point range!) and the Dons are still only allowing 30.7% shooting from behind the arc on the road this season. I just can’t see them losing for a sixth straight time. The road team has covered seven of the last eight meetings. 8* San Francisco

10* Over Krylov/Ankalaev (10:15 ET): This is a light heavyweight (205 lbs) bout scheduled for three rounds on the main card. While we may not get to the scorecards here, I do think this fight will make it at least halfway to the distance as the 27-7 Krylov takes on the 14-1 Ankalaev. Go with the Over 1.5 rounds. 

Magomed Ankalaev suffered a shocking defeat in his UFC debut when he submitted with just one second left in the fight against Paul Craig. Since then (March ‘18), he’s been on a roll, winning five in a row with four finishes, three of them coming in the first round. Ankalaev’s 2020 was odd as he fought Ion Cutelaba twice. The first fight ended in just 38 seconds due to some questionable officiating. The second did go a bit longer, but still ended in Round 1. Still, I expect Ankalaev to have a tougher time here. 

Krylov also had a misleading UFC debut when he gassed badly late in the fight and lost Soa Palelei. That was all the way back in 2013. After dropping two of his first three UFC fights, Krylov finally started to gain “momentum” by winning 9 of his next 10, all by stoppage. But he’s slowed down a bit the L2+ years, splitting his last four fights (2-2 record) and the last two have gone to decision. Krylov is not easy to finish though and it will take time for Ankalaev, if he is able to do it at all. Krylov’s best bet here is to try and wear down his opponent over the course of three rounds. 10* Over Krylov/Ankalaev

10* Under Nuggets/Thunder (8:05 ET): Second night of a back to back for OKC here. They beat Atlanta last night, 118-109. It was an odd game that saw both teams wearing very similar color jerseys at first. The Thunder made a “wardrobe change” at halftime and it seemed to work, although it was the first half that saw them shoot 60% from the field. I highly doubt we’ll see that kind of shooting again from them and not just because they are 28th in the league in offensive efficiency and 27th in points per game. Their four games previous to last night all stayed Under the total. So will this one.

Denver has had its own issues lately, though not wardrobe related. They’ve lost four of six to fall back into eighth place in the Western Conference. That’s still a whole heck of a lot better than where Oklahoma City is at (12th), but the Nuggets were in the Conference Finals last season and expect to finish high. Ironically, I think they’re better than their record this year, something I did NOT believe to be the case each of the L2 seasons. 

These teams just met two weeks ago and the final score was 97-95 with Denver winning at home. They combined to miss 52 of 72 three-point attempts. A little known fact with the Nuggets is that they play at the third slowest tempo in the league, so there are a fewer number of possessions in their games and thus fewer chances to score. Over the L5 games, the Thunder have defended well, allowing an average of just 103 PPG. Three of Denver’s last four games would have stayed Under tonight’s total as would have seven of the last nine Thunder games. 10* Under Nuggets/Thunder

10* Under Florida State/North Carolina (4:00 ET): Florida State’s reputation precedes itself here as the total is very high for this matchup with North Carolina. That’s due in large part to the Seminoles’ incredible run of Overs, which now stands at 11 straight games, a streak which dates all the way back to late December. Not to be outdone, UNC has been a “boon” for Over bettors as well. The Over is 3-0 their L3 and 8-3 their L11. When these teams met last month in Tallahassee, the ‘Noles won 82-75. 

However, it is notable that the O/U line in that first meeting was “only” 143.5. That’s a double digit difference compared to today’s O/U line. Obviously, an increase had to be expected. But I think the oddsmakers have gone a bit “overboard” on this one, possibly trying to “suck the public in.” This will be the highest O/U line for any FSU game this season while North Carolina has had only one higher and that was back in early December vs. Iowa, one of the highest scoring teams in the country that also isn’t great defensively.

Florida State’s scoring average predictably dips on the road, so I don’t see them matching some of their recent point totals. They’ve only played five road games all season! Two of them marked their lowest scoring games of the year, a 77-67 loss at Clemson and a 76-65 loss at Georgia Tech. North Carolina just got torched by Marquette, but that was after holding its three previous opponents all to 62 points or less. The Tar Heels are 12-5 Under following a game where they allowed 80+ points. 10* Under Florida State/North Carolina

10* Brighton & Hove Albion (10:00 AM ET): It was a puzzling defeat for Brighton & Hove Albion last week on the pitch as they fell 2-1 to Crystal Palace. Not just because I had them and they gave up the game-winner in the 95th minute. But also because the Seagulls dominated possession (74%) and shots (25-3). As previously discussed, Brighton is probably deserving of a better place than 16th in the table and only four points clear of the relegation zone. Their goal differential is better than three teams above them. Last week also snapped a six-match unbeaten streak in the Premier League. 

West Brom seem destined for relegation at season’s end as they currently sit second from the bottom (19th) and have a long way to go (11 points) to reach safety. On the bright side, they have picked up two points from their last two matches, playing to draws with both Manchester United and Burnley. The former, in particular, is impressive. But the Baggies are still winless over their last six and have scored a total of just one goal in their last three. They have the worst goal differential (-36) in the entire EPL as they’ve conceded 55 times in 25 matches 

Last week’s loss as well as a league-high 11 draws have Brighton in an unfortunate position, but I think this fixture is tailor-made for them to pick up three points. They’ve already picked up 16 points from their previous 12 away matches and West Brom has the worst home record in the league. Tariq Lamptey is expected back from a two-month absence due to a hamstring injury. West Brom has only two wins this entire campaign and unlike the reverse fixture (1-1 on Oct 26), I don’t see the sides sharing the points. 10* Brighton & Hove Albion

8* VFL Wolfsburg (9:30 ET): With Eintracht Frankfurt’s shocking defeat Friday, Wolfsburg can now have third place in the Bundesliga table all to themselves. They were already (slightly) ahead based on goal differential, but now they can move ahead on points. Frankfurt’s loss also means Wolfsburg can now claim to have the fewest number of losses (2) in the entire Bundesliga this season. They are on a nine-match unbeaten run in the German top flight and only seven points back of leaders Bayern Munich. While they may not be able to get any closer, Saturday marks an excellent opportunity to at least keep pace.

Hertha Berlin’s current position is far less envious. They sit 15th, but sit ahead of the relegation playoff only based on a better goal differential than Arminia Bielefeld. Wolfsburg actually did them a favor by thumping Bielefeld 3-0 last week. Unfortunately, Hertha could not help themselves as they were beaten by that same score against a determined RB Leipzig. With that defeat, Hertha remained winless over their last eight Bundesliga fixtures.

Even more frightening is the fact Hertha has not scored a goal in five of those eight matches. Now they face a Wolfsburg side that has kept a ridiculous seven consecutive clean sheets across all competitions! The Wolves have conceded only 19 goals all season, second fewest in the entire Bundesliga and they can taste Champions League qualification. This is very much a legit top four side in the league as they’ve won six of the last seven. The fact they shared the points in a 1-1 draw with Hertha back in November should have them properly motivated here. 8* VFL Wolfsburg

7* Stuttgart (9:30 ET): While Stuttgart may be “nothing more” than a top half (of the table) side this season, they are clearly better than Schalke and it should be an easy three points on home turf Saturday. Nothing short of a miracle can save Schalke from being relegated at season’s end as their nine points are eight fewer than everybody else and a -41 goal differential is quite easily the worst in all of Europe’s top leagues. They have won only one time all season.

Stuttgart won 1-0 in Koln last weekend and should have no problem remaining in the German top flight next season. The recently promoted side got off to a great start this season, but then began to stumble a bit. They’ve taken only nine points at home all season (just one win) and last won B2B matches back in December. But if ever there was a time for an easy win, it would be here. 

Now believe it or not, Stuttgart is actually winless in the last five fixtures vs. Schalke. The reverse fixture was a 1-1 draw back in October. But again, I see those past results motivating the favorite in this one (same as the other two plays in this 3-pack). Unlike in October, Schalke now knows its future fate. It’s going to be tough for them to drum up ANY motivation on a weekly basis from this point forward. No side has scored less or conceded more. 7* Stuttgart

10* Under Blazers/Lakers (10:05 ET): The Lakers are really reeling right now as Anthony Davis is hurt and they’ve lost four in a row. It was pretty clear watching Wednesday’s 114-89 loss to the Jazz that LeBron James is being forced to shoulder too much of the load and is overextended right now. Wednesday was also the third time in the last four games that the Lakers failed to score 100 points. That’s just terrible. On the bright side, the team has still managed to retain the top spot in the defensive efficiency ratings. 

Portland is also on a losing streak (three games) and dealing with injuries. They’ve been without both CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic for a while now. At first, they were making due. But it now seems as if the injuries to two of the team’s three best players are starting to catch up. A bad sign for the Blazers is that they have already suffered six 20+ point losses this season. Another is that they are 29th in the league in defensive efficiency rating. However, it was a close loss to Denver Tuesday night (111-106) and the game stayed Under. 

That’s the way I see this one going as well. Just too many injuries on both sides. The Lakers are probably getting Dennis Schroeder back, but by their own admission, the rotation is a mess right now. Portland actually held Denver to 42.6% shooting, a good sign. The Lakers are 3-0 Under this season when coming off a double digit loss and 9-1 Under when facing a team that has a winning record. The Blazers are 18-13 SU on the year. 10* Under Blazers/Lakers

8* Tarleton State (8:00 ET): My own personal power ratings say the oddsmakers are still underrating Tarleton State. Now the Texans are by no means a great team, or even a good one, but I think they deserve far more respect than what they are getting here at home vs. New Mexico State tonight. It was exactly one week ago that I backed Tarleton State and they ended up winning at Dixie State by a score of 77-59. While they lost the follow-up (Saturday), I still believe they’re underrated here. 

New Mexico State is coming off a split of its own last weekend as they won one and lost one at home vs. Utah Valley State. The key is they won the second game. It has been almost three months since the Aggies won B2B games and when they did it was the first two games of the season, both of which were against non-DI opponents. COVID-19 really wreaked havoc on NMSU’s early season schedule, but they’ve played six games in February and gone 3-3 SU. They are 1-2 SU/ATS as a road favorite this season. 

Last Friday I said it was hard to justify Dixie State being a favorite against anyone. This week I’m saying it’s just as difficult to justify NMSU being a road favorite, especially one of this size. Tarleton State is 4-2 SU at home and while most of those wins were against non-DI teams, they’ve averaged 88.7 PPG. New Mexico State shoots just 27.2% from three-point range on the road while Tarleton State shoots at 40% for the year from there. Not only can the home team cover this one, they can win the game outright. 8* Tarleton State

8* Little Rock (7:30 ET): Little Rock has really hit the skids of late by losing its last six games. They were favored to win in each of the last four, so it’s REALLY been a disappointing stretch. The Trojans got swept by Texas State, Arkansas State and LA Monroe. However, key to understanding this streak is the fact that only one game was played here at home and that was only a two-point loss to Arkansas State. The team is back in Little Rock tonight and I like their chances against Louisiana, who is not sound defensively. 

These Sun Belt teams have already met twice this year, both times in Lafayette, and they split the pair. Both games were decided by just two points and interesting enough the Trojans were favored both times. So it certainly seems as if we’re getting a “discount” on them for tonight’s “rubber match” and the obvious explanation for that has been their poor recent form. Now their win in Lafayette earlier this season did see the Trojans come back from 10 down at the half to win in OT. But the loss was even crazier as the lights in the Cajun Dome briefly turned red on the final possession, clearly screwing with Little Rock’s final possession. It was absurd that the refs did nothing. 

While Little Rock continues to struggle from three-point range, they do lead the Sun Belt in 2-point FG% and free throw rate. So I believe they are going to be able to score plenty tonight against the team with the worst defensive efficiency rating in the conference. Louisiana gives up 77.8 PPG on the road and is just 1-7 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5. The time is right for Little Rock to snap its long (and somewhat shocking) losing streak. 8* Little Rock

8* Bradley (7:00 ET): So there is a bit of a risk involved here as Bradley continues to be without three suspended players, including their two top leading scorers. (The suspensions are a part of an ongoing police investigation). The three games they’ve played since the suspensions have NOT gone well for the Braves as they’re 0-3 SU/ATS. However, the Braves get a break tonight in that Drake will be without its leading scorer (Shanquan Hemphill) and I don’t think that’s been properly accounted for in this line. Take the points. 

Bradley has been a massive underachiever this year in the Missouri Valley as they were projected to finish third and even got one first place vote in the preseason poll. Instead, they are 5-11 SU in conference play, which is tied for second worst. Despite the suspensions, the Braves still found themselves favored last Thursday here at home vs. Illinois State. They haven’t played since, so that’s a full week off to prepare for one of the toughest teams in the MVC. It should do the home dog some good. 

Drake’s absurd ATS run seems to be never ending as the Bulldogs are now 55-30 ATS their L85 games, including 18-4 this season. They’ve now won four straight since getting blown out at home by Loyola Chicago two weeks ago, which was a game I faded the Bulldogs. This is the first meeting of the year with Bradley and obviously a game Drake “can’t” lose, given that they are currently tied w/ Loyola a top the MVC standings. But playing w/o their leading scorer, the spread is just too high. 8* Bradley

10* Colorado (9:00 ET): Colorado has beaten USC five straight times, covering all but once and that was last year here in Boulder when they won 70-66 as a 9.5-point favorite. They’ve already beaten the Trojans once this season and that was on New Year’s Eve, 72-62 as a 4-point underdog. I’ve been quite vocal for months now that CU is a Top 25 caliber team and tonight is their chance to prove it. It speaks volumes that they are favored here against the #19 team in the country. I know it’s a home game, but I’m betting big on the Buffs tonight in a game they desperately need to have. 

Colorado is currently 4th in the Pac 12 standings, though I think it’s them and USC that are the two best teams. They trail the Trojans by 2.5 games with three more to play, but sweeping the season series would go a long way in keeping their chances alive to win the conference. A loss tonight and they’d be officially eliminated. Saturday saw the Buffaloes snap their first losing streak of this season (just two games) by beating Oregon State 61-57. They did not cover, dropping them to 2-6 ATS L8 games, but it’s only a small number we’re having to lay in this one. 

USC responded from its own loss by beating Oregon last time out. It was a very impressive effort against what had been a red hot Ducks team, however that game took place on Monday, which puts the Trojans at a bit of a disadvantage here. They’ve had just two days off between games while CU has had four. The Buffs have been very impressive at home this season, winning by an average of almost 19 PPG. USC’s third leading scorer (Isaiah Mobley) missed the Oregon game w/ a calf injury and is questionable to play here. I don’t think the Trojans will be getting off to the same kind of start we saw Monday (led by 21 at the break). 10* Colorado

10* LA Clippers (8:05 ET): The Clippers look to win two in a row for the first time in 10 days as they travel to Memphis tonight. The Grizzlies have been struggling (lost 8 of 12), so a win here should be a formality for the road team. Then comes the matter of covering the spread. That’s something the Clips have done in five of the last seven games, including rather easily on Tuesday when they smashed Washington 135-116. Paul George and Kawhi Leonard combined for 62 points in what was the duo’s third straight game on the court together. When those two are both healthy, this is obviously one of the best teams in the NBA. I don’t think they’ll have much difficulty covering the number tonight.

Memphis has not only lost its last two games, but they also failed to score 100 points both times. Monday’s 102-92 loss to the Mavericks came on the heels of an embarrassing 128-97 loss to the Suns here at home. The last three teams that the Grizzlies have defeated are: Detroit, OKC and Sacramento. Their only other win since Feb 1 came against a Charlotte team that was in the second night of a back to back. 

Injuries have been a problem all season for the Grizz and they are still without the services of Dillon Brooks. This would be a hard matchup for them even if fully healthy, but they’re nowhere close to that right now. The Clippers are #2 in the league in offensive efficiency right now and Memphis has allowed its previous five opponents to shoot nearly 50% from the floor. As a road favorite, the Clips are on a 44-20 ATS run. 10* LA Clippers

8* Iowa (7:00 ET): It’s a top 10 battle in Ann Arbor Thursday night as #3 Michigan faces #9 Iowa. This is the second straight Top 10 opponent for the Wolverines as they just outlasted Ohio State 92-87 on Sunday as a 2-point road favorite. That made it three straight wins for the Maize and Blue since they got back on the court following a three-week absence. While it’s tough to “poke holes” in a team that’s 16-1 SU on the season, it should be pointed out that those last three wins have all been by eight points or less. 

Iowa has won four straight, three of them by double digits. Two were on the road, at Michigan State and at Wisconsin, and the Hawkeyes won those games by a combined 45 points! The one close one came Sunday as they beat Penn State by only six, 74-68 as a 10-point favorite. The Hawkeyes actually trailed at the half in that one, though there was plenty of cause for celebration as Luke Garza became the program’s all-time leading scorer. Also, Iowa’s defense has gotten much better over the L5 games as they’re holding opponents to just 36% shooting.

Something about Iowa being an underdog is that three of their six losses this year have been by five points or less. I’m going to take the points here as the teams are rated almost even in my own power ratings. Yes, I’ve got Iowa rated better than the team Michigan just beat, Ohio State. The Wolverines also had to rally back from their own halftime deficit against Wisconsin. The fact they are playing two straight top 10 opponents is tough while the third time should be the charm for Iowa against top five teams (lost to Gonzaga & Illinois). 8* Iowa

8* Bayer Leverkusen (3:00 ET): Swiss side Young Boys took the first leg of this Round of 32 tie by a score of 4-3. But by mounting a second half comeback in that one, Bayer Leverkusen positioned themselves well to still move on to the Round of 16 in this year’s Europa League. They still have to win Thursday, mind you. But a win is likely all they need as their three away goals from the first leg are likely to ensure they move on if the overall aggregate score ends up tied. For those unfamiliar, the aggregate (overall) number of goals scored is the first tiebreaker if the two sides end up splitting the two legs. The next tiebreak is the number of away goals scored. 

So as long as Leverkusen is able to win Thursday and keep Young Boys under three goals, then they progress to the Round of 16. That scenario seems likely to happen as far as I’m concerned. I know Leverkusen got off to a very “sleepy” start in the first leg, falling behind 3-0 in the first half. And a 1-1 draw with Augsburg in the Bundesliga over the weekend doesn’t exactly inspire a ton of confidence. However, winning the Europa League now seems to be taking on an added importance given it’s looking less likely Leverkusen finishes in the top four of the German top flight.

Young Boys have won seven straight across all competitions, but remember they are generally not facing the same caliber of opponent. Yes, they did defeat Leverkusen before. But it’s a virtual guarantee that the fast start they enjoyed at home is not going to repeat itself here. If Young Boys fall behind here, and I expect they will, then they’re going to have to “open things up” (in an effort to score), which leaves them more vulnerable on the back end. 8* Bayer Leverkusen

8* LA Lakers (10:05 ET): Roughly halfway through the third quarter Monday night, I thought I had an easy winner with Charlotte +12. After all, they were leading the Jazz outright by 11 points! But Utah, as they are apt to do, stormed back to win for the 21st time in the last 23 games. Not only that, they covered the 12-point spread rather easily as the final score was 132-110! I’m not joking here when I say they made 28 of 55 three-point attempts. That was a franchise record for makes and 19 of them came from bench players. Utah has already made 500 threes this season, needing just 31 games to do so, a league-record.

Elsewhere on Monday night, the Lakers blew all of a 17-point lead and fell to the Wizards 127-124 in overtime. That was the third straight loss for the NBA Champs, the first that’s happened this season. Obviously, missing Anthony Davis hurts and LeBron James is playing a lot of minutes as a result. James has now logged the third most minutes of any player in the league, something Lakers’ fans certainly don’t want to see from the 36-year old. Before everyone starts overreacting though, I’ll point out the Lakers were off to 22-7 start before this losing streak began. They’ll be fine. They’re still a top four team in net efficiency.

Utah is #1 in all categories right now and tonight will mark the 30th time they’ve been favored in 32 games. So it really shouldn’t be THAT big of a surprise to see them doing so well. Still though, it is shocking to see them laying this many points to the Lakers. I’m going to grab the points here as LA certainly isn’t accustomed to being an underdog, especially one of this size. The only previous game this season where they were getting points was at Milwaukee (+1.5) and they won outright. This is the most points they’ve gotten in any game since the end of the 2018-19 season. 8* LA Lakers

10* Tennessee (9:00 ET): I’m going all in on the Vols Wednesday as they visit in-state rival Vandy. Tennessee is off a loss here (to Kentucky) and is just 3-3 SU in its last six games. This slide has dropped them to #25 in the rankings, but I’m not that worried as they remain much higher in my own power ratings and are a top five team in defensive efficiency. It would certainly appear as if we’re getting a real “discount” on UT tonight considering they were 21.5-point favorites the first time they faced Vandy, a game they won comfortably, 81-61. I’ll gladly lay the number on the road here.

Vanderbilt is last in the SEC with a 2-10 SU conference record. After recording that second win on February 13th, 72-51 at Mississippi State, the Commodores have subsequently dropped B2B games by the same 82-78 score. They were against Kentucky and Alabama. But note they actually trailed UK by as much as 17 and while they were more competitive vs. Bama, they were also down double digits in the 2H there. The fact the Commies come in having not suffered an ATS loss in their L7 games (6-0-1) has obviously played a significant role in this line being shorter than it should. I’d pump the brakes on calling Vandy “competitive.”

Tennessee shot poorly vs. Kentucky (35.3 FG%) with leading scorer Springer finishing with only four points. They also were outworked on the glass with Josiah-Jordan James sitting for a second straight game. Whether or not James returns, I expect the Volunteers to improve in all areas tonight. Not only did they shoot well in the first game vs. Vandy, they scored 93 against South Carolina (with James sitting) last Wednesday. Meanwhile, I can’t see Vandy shooting 10 of 23 from 3-point range again, like they did vs. Bama. I know this game is in Nashville, but the line shouldn’t be 15 points off from where it was when the teams played in Knoxville. 10* Tennessee

2/23 UPDATE: Wednesday's Champions League play on Manchester City was released two weeks ago. Since then, the line has skyrocketed. If you do not feel comfortable playing that large of a favorite, I'd recommend passing rather than the goal line. 

7* Manchester City (3:00 ET): Man City has been the most dominant side in all of Europe this season and thus enters the Round of 16 as the favorite to win this year’s Champions League. I just took them on Sunday when they rolled to a 1-0 win over Arsenal in the Premier League. They scored the lone goal just two minutes in. It was a surprise that they failed to find the back of the net again, but at the same time it was the Citizens’ 23rd clean sheet this season and 13th in the last 17 EPL matches. 

It’s not just the Premier League that Man City is dominating. They’ve won 18 straight across all competitions, outscoring the opposition 47-6 during the run! Here in the Champions League, they topped Group C with 16 points, winning five and drawing once. They conceded only one goal in the six matches, the fewest of any side in the Group Stage. They finished tied with Bayern Munich for the best goal differential at +12.

Drawing Man City here in the Round of 16 was a bad break for Gladbach, but their own recent poor form gives even more reason for pessimism. They’ve fallen to eighth in the Bundesliga following a 2-1 loss to Mainz (a side that will almost surely be relegated) and now nine points adrift of the top four, it’s highly unlikely we’ll see them back in the Champions League next year. Even worse is that they’ve become a bit of a “lame duck” with manager Marco Rose already announcing he’ll be heading to rival Dortmund this summer. Gladbach may have been the best side in Group B, but they finished just 2-2-2 and they enter Wednesday’s 1st leg having won only once in their last five fixtures. This is their 1st ever appearance in the knockout stage and it’s likely to be a short stay. 7* Manchester City

8* Texas (9:00 ET): This is a critical game for #14 Texas. While there’s no doubt that they’re heading to the NCAA Tournament, the Longhorns are off a loss here at home (84-82 to West Virginia) and only 2-4 SU their last six games overall. They’re also just 1-7 ATS L8 and now they welcome in #17 Kansas, who just made a big move up the latest rankings. The Jayhawks are on a 5-0 SU/ATS run and coming off a wire to wire victory over Texas Tech. But seeing as what happened the last time these teams played (Texas won by 25 in Lawrence), I’ve got no hesitation about laying the short number here. 

While they led wire to wire Saturday, KU did allow a Texas Tech team that hadn’t played in 10 days to cut the lead down to three in the final minute. Looking at the 5-game win streak, it’s not all that impressive when you consider three of the wins were at the expense of Iowa State and Kansas State, the bottom two teams in the Big 12. Certainly nothing was impressive when the Jayhawks hosted Texas on January 2nd as they were handed their worst home loss ever under HC Bill Self. Don’t forget this team had fallen out of the rankings prior to this winning run. 

Texas led WVU by as many as 19 early in the second half, so that’s a game they clearly should have won. They wilted late and the end result was their fourth loss in Austin in the last eight games. All four were against ranked teams, but the Longhorns need to be better at home. They should certainly be confident here after what they did to Kansas the last time and a win would give the program’s 1st ever season-sweep of the Jayhawks. I think Shaka Smart’s team delivers. 8* Texas

8* Oklahoma (9:00 ET): While I may not think that #7 Oklahoma is as good as its ranking, they shouldn’t have much trouble with Kansas State Tuesday night. I say that based on a number of factors, the most obvious being a 76-50 win over the Wildcats last month. That thrashing in Norman actually snapped an 0-5 ATS run against K-State, but let’s not sugarcoat how UGLY things have been in Manhattan this season. The Wildcats are just 6-18 SU, including 2-13 in Big 12 play.

Now Kansas State did defeat TCU on the road Saturday, 62-54 as a seven-point underdog. But that was their first win in 2021, snapping a 13-game losing streak. They trailed by five late, but a rare strong closing effort got them the ‘W’. But don’t expect any kind of “carryover” effect to tonight. The Wildcats have yet to win a single Big 12 home game this season and they are 3-11 ATS overall in the “Little Apple.” They are 0-2 ATS this season when trying to avenge a 20+ point loss. 

Oklahoma won at Iowa State on Saturday, it’s eight victory in the last nine games. While it was a 66-56 final in Ames, the Sooners could not cover as 12-point favorites. But they led at one point by 21, so I’d call it a dominant effort. So too was the first meeting with Kansas State as OU allowed just 36.1% shooting, including 3 of 15 from three-point range. Look for more of the same this go around as the Sooners make it B2B double digit victories. 8* Oklahoma

10* Orlando (7:05 ET): If the Magic are favored, then you know the competition has got to be pretty weak. Sure enough, they are hosting the Pistons tonight. Detroit is the last place team in the Eastern Conference, having dropped three straight to fall to 8-22 SU on the year. Meanwhile, Orlando is actually playing well of late with three straight wins getting them within a game of the top 10. Remember, the new playoff format for this year has the teams that finish 7th-10th in the conference involved in a play-in scenario. 

Wouldn’t you know that Orlando’s most recent win came at the expense of Detroit? It was 105-96 here Sunday night as the Magic also covered as 3.5-point chalk. That followed upset victories over New York and Golden State, both of which came here at home. The Magic have been battling injuries all season long and thus have been a shell of the team that made the playoffs as an 8-seed last year. But both Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier have been on fire recently. Vucevic went for 37-12 on Sunday after a triple double against Golden State. Fournier is averaging 25.3 points in the L3 games. 

An injury to starting point guard Delon Wright (out two weeks) has seemingly made things go from bad to worse in the Motor City. Not that the Pistons were all that great with Wright in the lineup, but the offense has REALLY struggled since he went down. It’s been B2B games under 100 points, which is just terrible in today’s NBA and it’s tough to expect much here from a team that’s just 2-14 SU on the road and playing five rookies. 10* Orlando

10* Georgia Tech (7:00 ET): Similar to what I predicted would happen with Missouri, #17 Virginia Tech is a team that should start to tumble down the rankings. It’s been 17 days since the Hokies last played a game. Back on Feb 6th, they were able to squeak by a very undermanned Miami team 80-76 in overtime, but did not cover the spread. It will be interesting to see how they now respond from such a long layoff. Georgia Tech is no slouch and just won by 27 at Miami, obviously a margin far greater than what Va Tech won by there. 

While Va Tech has been on hiatus, Georgia Tech has played four games. They’ve covered the last three, beating Pitt and losing by only two at Clemson. The Yellow Jackets also hold a win over Florida State, who is arguably the best team in the entire ACC this season. The 87-60 win at Miami was the program’s largest road win ever in ACC play and they led 48-18 at halftime. This is an experienced team for HC Josh Pastner with four players that have 1,000+ career points. Only one other team in the country can claim that. GT is desperate to end a decade long NCAA Tourney drought. 

Even before the three straight postponements, Va Tech had been without second leading scorer Tyrece Radford. So that’s something else they’ve got to overcome. This is a team that would barely make my Top 40, let alone Top 25. They’ve had good fortune in going 6-1 SU in games decided by seven points or less. One game that was NOT close was LY’s visit down to Atlanta, which the Hokies lost 76-57. It’s telling that the #16 team in the country is such a short favorite at home vs. an unranked foe. Take the points. 10* Georgia Tech

10* Bayern Munich (3:00 ET): Despite a recent “downturn” in domestic form, there is no denying that Bayern Munich knows how to “turn it on” when it comes to European Football. The reigning champs of the continent are unbeaten in their last 17 Champions League fixtures and they easily won Group A this season by taking 16 out of a possible 18 points. After losing 2-1 to Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday, Bayern’s Bundesliga lead has been trimmed down to just two points. I believe they’ll respond “in kind” here in the 1st leg of the Round of 16 against Serie A side Lazio. 

Lazio looked good in Saturday’s 1-0 win over Sampdoria, moving them up into a fourth place tie in Serie A. They probably should have won by more, however, let’s not be quick to forget the previous week’s result, that being a 3-1 loss to Inter. Despite LY’s top four finish in Serie A, I’m skeptical we’ll see Lazio back in the Champions League next season. They obviously weren’t nearly as dominant in the Group stage as was Bayern Munich. It was  second place in a fairly weak Group F that was topped by another Bundesliga side, Dortmund. 

So Bayern is actually on a two-match winless run with the loss to Frankfurt and a 3-3 draw against Arminia Bielefeld (where they fell behind 3-0). Two matches without a win is usually no big deal, but it’s a little stunning when you’re THIS side. My view is that they are going to come out firing Tuesday. Fixing a leaky defense is easier said than done, but if Bayern plays the way it did in the 2nd half vs. Frankfurt, then they’re going to win here. Lazio can’t match Bayern’s goal-scoring capability (who can?). 10* Bayern Munich

10* Charlotte (9:05 ET): Saturday saw the Jazz suffer what was just their second defeat since January 6th as they went down at the hands of the Clippers, 116-112. No shame there, especially since it was the second of back to back road games against the Clips. As I’ve said before, Utah’s straight up record (24-6) should not be that surprising when you consider that they’ve gone off as the betting favorite in 28 of those 30 games. It is very impressive that they are 19-3 ATS L22 games, but you have to figure that some of these larger pointspreads are going to start to “catch up with them.” Tonight looks like one of those nights to me.

Charlotte was pegged to finish at the bottom of the Eastern Conference by most, but they’ve been surprisingly competitive, going 14-15 straight up. That’s good enough for 8th place in the standings right now and considering just how weak the East seems to be, the Hornets have a legit shot at making the playoffs this year or at least the play-in round. Saturday saw them beat Golden State 102-100 as they took advantage of Draymond Green foolishly “losing his cool” in the final minute. 

The Jazz have not been DD favorites all that often during this incredible ATS run. It is obviously very difficult to continue winning by large margins in this league. They haven’t dropped B2B games SU in over a month and don’t figure to lose here, but the spread seems too high. Charlotte is very much an average team, not a bad one, and they have been a DD dog only three times all season. They are 2-1 ATS in those games w/ the one non-cover coming in the second night of a back to back. After playing the Clippers twice and having an upcoming game vs. the Lakers on Wednesday, this is a “sandwich spot” for the Jazz. 10* Charlotte

10* Elon (7:00 ET): Elon is near the bottom of the CAA standings, however, they’ll enter tonight’s game with William & Mary pretty confident. It was just 48 hours ago that they blew out the Tribe, 75-54 as a 2.5-point dog. That was on the road as well. Led by Darius Buford’s career-high 27 points, the Phoenix jumped out to a massive 44-23 halftime advantage and never looked back. W&M leading scorer Luke Loewe finished with only five points on 2 of 11 shooting. 

While I do not think it will be THAT easy for Elon this time around, expect them to get the job done at home tonight. Saturday was their second win in a row as they won at College of Charleston (as an eight-point dog) 66-55 on Valentine’s Day. Tonight will be just the SECOND home game for the Phoenix since the New Year! They have not won at home since December 16th against Campbell, but that’s a little misleading as they’ve played only two home games since then. I am expecting them to be VERY motivated tonight as they now close out the regular season with three consecutive home games. 

William & Mary is 8-2 ATS on the road this season, including three outright upsets in their last three tries. But with four of the Tribe’s six victories this year coming by five points or less, they easily could have a worse record. Two of their wins have come by exactly one point. This team was projected to finish last in the Colonial back in the preseason poll and I haven’t even mentioned yet that Saturday was their first time on the court in nearly a month. It showed and I don’t think they can turn things around in 48 hours against the same opponent. 10* Elon

8* SIU Edwardsville (6:00 ET): SIU Edwardsville hasn’t had much to cheer about this season, but the Cougars actually have some reasons for optimism Monday despite being a double digit dog at home. First off, they’ve had Morehead State’s number of late, at least at the betting window where they’ve covered seven of the last eight head to head meetings. They won outright the first time they played this season, 69-65 (as a 5-pt road dog) back on December 18th. Looking at the line for this rematch, it just doesn’t make sense when compared to the number (and result!) of that first encounter. 

Now things quickly went downhill for SIU Edwardsville after that upset win three months ago. Their season was essentially paused for the next month with eight straight postponements. Since returning to the court, they are just 5-10 and the last four games, all double digit losses, have been ugly. But three of those came on the road. The first meeting with Morehead State was as good as the Cougars have looked all season. I think that’s significant. 

Also significant is the fact this is Morehead State’s fourth consecutive road game. They are coming off a 10-point win at Tenn-Martin, which is the Eagles’ 10th win in the last 11 games overall. Morehead State shot 56% Saturday, but only 35% in the first game vs. SIU Edwardsville.  Make no mistake about it, recent form has “jacked up” this line. But I just can’t see why a team would be getting only five on the road, win outright, then be getting double digits at home. It’s a great value on the home dog here, so “hold your nose” and take the points. 8* SIU Edwardsville

10* Brighton Hove & Albion (3:00 ET): Brighton comes into this Monday match three points back of Crystal Palace and 16th in the table, only four points clear of the relegation zone. However, I think there’s a pretty clear argument to be made that BH&A is the superior side on the pitch today and should probably be much higher in the table. Their -5 YTD goal differential is actually 12th “best” in the Premier League. Meanwhile, Crystal Palace has the league’s 4th worst goal differential (-15) and I feel they are the ones that should be more concerned with the possibility of relegation at season’s end. 

While still seven points clear of the relegation zone, Crystal Palace has dropped B2B matches with an aggregate score of 5-0. They lost 2-0 to Leeds United, then 3-0 to Burnley last week. Those are middle of the table sides (at best) and other than a 1-0 triumph over Wolverhampton on Jan 30, the Eagles haven’t beaten anybody outside the top four since November. They’ve lost 11 times this season, which is three more than BH&A. 

Brighton is actually on a six-match unbeaten run in the Premier League heading into today, more proof that they are probably deserving of a better “current lot in life.” They’ve won three and drawn three during this stretch. Wins over the likes of Liverpool and Tottenham demonstrate what they are capable of and I like the fact they’ve conceded no more than one goal in 10 consecutive matches (5 clean sheets). Crystal Palace is still without top goal scorer Wilfried Zala, so this is a golden opportunity for Brighton to snap a three-game losing skid to this particular opponent. 10* Brighton Hove & Albion

10* Over Valparaiso/So Illinois (5:00 ET): Valpo came through for me in a big way earlier in the week, easily covering a massive 20.5-point spread against a very good Loyola Chicago team. The ATS result was never in doubt as the Crusaders allowed just 54 points in the game and held the Ramblers to 38.5% shooting. They actually led outright at the half. Still though, this is a team that hasn’t had much reason to celebrate recently as they’ve lost six of their last eight games to fall way off the pace in the Missouri Valley. 

Southern Illinois isn’t doing any better than Valpo this season. While the Salukis did manage to go 6-0 against the non-conference schedule, they didn’t really have any quality wins (Butler?) and are just 4-10 SU in conference play. They’ve failed to score even 60 points in any of the last four games, one of which they did manage to win (against last place Illinois State). It was another ugly shooting night earlier this week when SIU lost here in Carbondale to Missouri State by a score of 68-53.

Despite all the low point totals posted by these two teams recently, I’m “holding my nose” and taking the Over in this one. When the total is 133 points or lower, Southern Illinois is 5-1 Over this season. The 53 points scored on Wednesday matched a season-low, set in the first game vs. Missouri State. For the year, the Salukis are averaging 68.5 PPG at home. The last time Valparaiso was held to 52 points and faced a different opponent the next time out, they went for 70 and that too was on the road (at N Iowa). 10* Over Valparaiso/Southern Illinois

10* Boston (3:30 ET): There’s been a lot of discourse on why the Celtics are only 15-14 SU this year. Personally, I don’t think there’s much reason to worry as they are still 4th in the Eastern Conference. They won Friday night over Atlanta, 121-109, avenging a loss two nights prior and now they look to make it three wins in the last four games. The Pelicans have more reason to be concerned with where they’re at as B2B losses have them down in 12th in Western Conference. They are just atrocious at the defensive end (29th in efficiency). 

New Orleans has lost five of six overall and allowed at least 123 points in all five defeats. The most recent came at the hands of Phoenix Friday night as they let the Suns shoot 58% on the way to 132 points. It was the third time in those last six games that the Pelicans’ opponent shot 58% or better from the floor. That’s really hideous. Phoenix made 22 of its 39 three-point attempts, which is a shocking percentage and it certainly didn’t help that NO scored only 12 points in the fourth, a season-low for any quarter this season. 

Boston actually led Atlanta by as many as 27 Friday night, so it was a pretty dominant effort. They shot 55.6% from the floor, a season-best, so they’ve got to be salivating a bit at the prospect of facing this Pelicans team. Kemba Walker, who sat out the game the Celtics lost to the Hawks, came back to score a season-high 28 on Friday. New Orleans is just 2-5 SU/ATS in games where the total is 230 or higher. 10* Boston

9* St. Bonaventure (3:30 ET): After turning in a perfect 7-0 record in the month of January, the Bonnies have dropped two of three games here in February. You might recall that their 70-59 loss to Saint Louis on 2/6 was a 10* Game of the Week winner for me. After quickly bouncing back w/ an 86-73 win over LaSalle, the Bonnies lost again - by only three points - at VCU two Fridays ago. They haven’t taken the court in nine days as Thursday’s scheduled game vs. George Mason was postponed due to weather.

This will be Davidson’s first “real’ game since January 24th vs. UMass. The Wildcats have been dealing with COVID-19 and as a result have played just one time in February. It was 48 hours ago against Southern Virginia, a non D-I team, and you can guess how that one went (Davidson won 101-51). While it was the Wildcats’ fifth straight victory, look at the teams they beat. In addition to a non D-I team, they’ve faced UMass, Fordham, LaSalle and St. Joe’s. That’s the three worst teams (UMass excluded) in the conference. 

St. Bonaventure certainly won’t be lacking for motivation on Sunday as they are 1-7 SU/ATS the L8 meetings (0-4 L4) with Davidson and haven’t beaten them in regulation since 2016. I know Davidson is perfect (3-0) ATS as an underdog in 2020-21, but the Bonnies are 6-0 SU at home with an average margin of victory of 15.7 PPG. They also haven’t dropped B2B games this season. The long layoff between conference games definitely hurts Davidson here. 9* St. Bonaventure

10* AS Roma (2:45 ET): This is a critical three points here for Roma, who enter Sunday in a third place tie with Lazio (ahead on goal differential) in Serie A table. But 5th place Juventus is just one point behind and has a game in hand. Then you’ve got the fact that the winner of 6th place Napoli vs. 7th place Atalanta (earlier on Sunday) will draw even with Roma. So it’s imperative that the Giallorossi come through with what would be a third straight win here in the Italian top flight. I think they will. 

Benevento has not been in good form for a while now and has fallen to 15th in the table. They actually have the third worst goal differential (-17) in the league with only the hideous marks of Parma and Crotone being worse. So they’re lucky to not be even lower in the table and it’s not difficult to envision a scenario where they are fighting off relegation by season’s end. Last year’s Serie B champs are winless in the last six Serie A fixtures, though they’ve played to a 1-1 draw in each of the last two. But those were against Bologna and Sampdoria, two sides nowhere close to the quality of the side they’ll face here. 

Benevento has conceded 42 times this season. Again, only the bottom two (Parma, Crotone) have conceded more. They’ve lost three straight to Roma, by an aggregate score of 14-4, conceding at least three goals every time out. The reverse fixture, back in October, was a 5-2 final. Roma won 3-0 last week in Serie A competition (against Udinese), then was able to rest some key contributors in an easy midweek win over Braga in the Europa League. They have a 26-match win streak against newly promoted sides, the longest active streak in all of Serie A. 10* AS Roma

7* Manchester City (11:30 AM ET): Man City has emerged as the best side in all of Europe this season. They are better than Bayern Munich and better than Atletico Madrid. They are better than everybody. Not only have they won 12 straight times here in the EPL, but they’ve won 17 in a row across all competitions, an all-time record for an English side. The last time they lost was November 21st to Tottenham, which was 25 matches ago. Since then, they’ve kept 12 clean sheets in 16 EPL matches. Their 22 clean sheets this season are the most of any side in Europe’s “Big 5” leagues. You can’t go against ‘em right now. 

All this dominance has opened up a 10-point lead on the rest of the field. On Sunday, The Citizens head to Emirates Stadium to take on Arsenal, who are firmly a middle of the table side at this point. The hosts are currently 22 points back of Man City and 10th in the table. A 4-2 win last week over Leeds snapped a three-match winless streak in the Premier League for the Gunners, but they simply have not fared well in this fixture - losing the last seven EPL meetings. It was 1-0 in the reverse fixture back in October. They’ve also failed to score a single goal against Man City in any of the last three home league games. 

It’s not just how many times Man City has won in a row, it’s HOW they’re winning. All those clean sheets speak to their dominance over the rest of the league. They did concede a goal last week to Everton, but also scored three of their own. That was the fourth straight match Man City scored at least three times, one of those coming in the FA Cup. All five wins in February have been by 2+ goals. In addition to a 1-0 win in the reverse fixture, they also hold a 4-1 win over Arsenal in the EFL Cup this season. 7* Manchester City.

6* Over Lewis/Blaydes (10:15 ET): If not for Francis Ngannou, we’d likely be discussing Curtis Blaydes in a very different manner. The #2 ranked heavyweight in the UFC is 0-2 vs. Ngannou, but 14-0 in his career vs. everybody else with 10 TKOs. Blaydes is a massive favorite here to beat #4 ranked heavyweight Derrick Lewis, who comes in with a 24-7 career record, including 15-5 in the UFC. Being that it’s the main event, this fight is scheduled for five rounds. I think it easily goes Over 1.5.

Lewis is on a three-fight win streak coming into Saturday. Two of those were by decision, but he did score a second round TKO over Alexey Oleynik back in August. While only six of Lewis’ 31 fights have gone to the scorecards, he hasn’t had one end in Round 1 since 2016. Only three of the previous 12 have stayed Under 1.5 rounds. Lewis’ only shot at pulling the upset here is probably landing one big punch in the late rounds as he’s not a very active striker. Only twice in his UFC career has he landed 50+ significant strikes in a fight.

Blaydes will try to end things early here, but I think Lewis is going to be able to hold on for a while. Blaydes hasn’t fought since June - a decision victory over Alexander Volkoff - as he tested positive for COVID in November, thus delaying this fight. But even though he took down Volkoff 14 different times in that fight, demonstrating his incredible wrestling ability, an inability to finish was apparent. Yes, he did knock out Junior Dos Santos 13 months ago, but I don’t see that happening here. 6* Over Lewis/Blaydes

8* Portland (10:05 ET): How are the Blazers doing it? Despite missing their second and third best players (McCollum, Nurkic), they have won six straight to get to fourth in Western Conference standings. They’ve covered the spread in all six games as well! They’ve still got the best player (Damian Lillard) and he and the rest of the team should have little difficulty scoring tonight on a Washington team that is as bad as any defensively in this league. The Wizards give up 119.5 PPG, which is why they are just 9-17 SU overall.

Now the Wiz have won three in a row. But all those wins - over Boston, Houston and Denver - did come at home. I see no reason why they should be getting this much respect, on the road, against one of the hottest teams in the league. It was earlier this month that the Trail Blazers came to the Nation’s Capital and handed the Wizards a 132-121 defeat. Since then, the Blazers are 7-1 SU and ATS. Washington shot 55% in that first meeting (and still lost), a number they almost certainly will NOT match tonight.

Washington has scored 130+ in B2B games and used a huge second quarter to overcome an early 17-point deficit against Denver. But their poor defense cannot be ignored. Ironically, a poor defensive efficiency rating is the lone issue I can identify with the Blazers, but the Wizards are one of the few teams lower than them in that regard. Lillard scored 43 in the win over New Orleans Wednesday. The Wizards are 0-2 SU/ATS the previous two seasons when on a 3-game win streak. 8* Portland

7* Under Oleynik/Daukaus (9:00 ET): This is a battle of heavyweights who are 12 years apart in age. Chris Daukaus, who is 2-0 in the UFC and 10-3 in his career, is the young upstart and should be a 2:1 favorite by the time he steps into the cage Saturday night. His opponent is the 43-year old Alexey Oleynik, who is 8-5 in the UFC and 59-14-1 overall in what has been a busy career. This is a fight I don’t see going very long and thus I’m on the Under 1.5 rounds.

Daukaus will almost certainly be looking for a knockout Saturday night. That’s how each of his last seven victories have come, including both here in the UFC, which have not made it out of the first round. After stopping Parker Porter last August, it only took 45 seconds for Daukaus to finish Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira in October. The issue for Daukaus is that he does not score the quick knockout, he hits the proverbial “wall” quickly. That could be a major issue against the submission specialist Oleynik.

Oleynik fought a total of four times in 2018-19 and all four fights ended in the first round. Two were wins and two were losses. He fought three times in 2020 and the last time we saw him, he got knocked out by Derrick Lewis (who co-headlines this card) just 21 seconds into the second round. Just like Daukaus would seem susceptible to gassing and being submitted, Oleynik seems vulnerable to a quick knockout loss here. Only one of Daukaus’ previous eight fights have made it past the halfway point of the second round. 7* Under Oleynik/Daukaus

8* DePaul (7:30 ET): So DePaul is REALLY having a rough go of it lately. The Blue Demons have been without the services of their two top scorers and as a result have won just once over the last month. They’ve lost five straight, none of those coming by fewer than seven points. But they did compete hard against Seton Hall on Wednesday, easily covering the 14-point spread. They actually led outright, 46-42, in the second half before wilting late. They may be getting back one, or both, of the two leading scorers today. Regardless, I am taking the points in this one. 

St. John’s is a hot team right now as they’ve won seven of eight, the lone defeat coming by three points at Butler. However, it is notable that I faded the Red Storm in their lone defeat. In the analysis, I pointed out that this is not a good team defensively. They are giving up 76.7 PPG and that makes it difficult to cover the spread when you’re favored by this many points. Interestingly enough, this game marks the first time all year that the Johnnies are being asked to lay more than three points to a Big East opponent! 

They were only one-point favorites when they visited DePaul late last month. Now they did win that game 81-68, thanks to a big 1st half and some dreadful DePaul shooting. I think it’s worth mentioning that the Red Storm are just 8-19 ATS their L27 games when favored by 9 to 12.5 points at home. I’d obviously love it if DePaul could get back either Moore or Freeman-Liberty, but I think their defense can keep them in this one. The Blue Demons have held eight of their last nine opponents under 70 points (St. John’s the exception) and this will be their best offensive game in awhile. 8* DePaul

10* South Dakota (4:00 ET): South Dakota has hit a recent downturn, losing three straight including two when favored at North Dakota last weekend. The losing streak has taken the Coyotes out of first place in the Summit League. They were previously 9-0 SU in conference play. They’re still tied for the most conference wins, but are now one-half game back of surging rival South Dakota State, who is 7-2 SU. I think it’s important to note that all three losses for the Coyotes came on the road. They’re back in Vermillion Saturday, hosting Oral Roberts in a key set of games. I’ll lay the short number here. 

Oral Roberts split with South Dakota State last weekend. They scored 103 in the win, but gave up 95 in the loss. Expect a high-scoring game today as the last 14 meetings between these teams have all gone Over! However, South Dakota does have a big edge defensively as they’re giving up just 63.7 PPG at home, a big reason they are 5-1 SU here. Oral Roberts is giving up more than 80 PPG on the road. They allowed an average of 90.5 PPG in the two games last week vs. South Dakota State. This is a problem facing a South Dakota team that topped 90 in each of its last two home games. 

South Dakota has played 8 of its last 10 games on the road. They’ll close out the regular season with four straight at home, so I like their chances of winning the conference. When favored at home this season, the Coyotes are winning by an average of more than 25 PPG! So this looks to be a really discounted price here. They scored 57 points in the second half of their last game and I say they “score at will” here. 10* South Dakota

10* Real Madrid (3:00 ET): Second place Real Madrid will be gunning for their fourth consecutive La Liga victory on Saturday as they look to continue their pursuit of Atletico Madrid. Los Blancos currently trail the table leaders by six points as of this writing, but that gap could very well be widened to nine by the time they get on the pitch Saturday night (Atletico plays Levante earlier in the day). Fortunately for Zidane’s side, this should be an easy three points against a struggling side facing the prospect of relegation. 

Real Valladolid currently sits 18th in the table with 21 points. That would mean relegation, although it should be noted they are tied with Eibar. However, they are behind on goal differential and the two teams behind them are just one win away from tying them. This is a top heavy league this year with the top six having clearly separated themselves and the top four likely already determined. After that, there’s not much difference, especially in the bottom half of the table. Real Valladolid are off a 1-1 draw with Eibar, however the issue here is that they are facing the #2 team in La Liga. 

The reverse fixture earlier this year ended 1-0 in Real Madrid’s favor and Valladolid has not beaten Los Blancos in more than 12 years. Tied for the 4th worst home mark in the league this season, it’s not going to happen here. Real Madrid had no problem with Valencia last week, winning 2-0, and with two tougher fixtures on the horizon, this is one where they’ve got to take the full three. Valladolid is winless in their last six in La Liga, three of those being losses. This price is VERY cheap, all things considered. 10* Real Madrid

8* Syracuse (2:00 ET): Notre Dame comes in red hot here, as they’re 5-0 ATS L5 games. They’ve won four of those five games straight up w/ the only loss coming by two at Georgia Tech. But the ACC isn’t really all that strong this season and the teams that the Fighting Irish have been beating generally reside near the bottom of the standings. In fact, other than Duke (who is widely overrated), the Irish’s three other recent victories have come against teams in the bottom five in the conference. 

Syracuse has also won two straight vs. bottom tier ACC teams, beating NC State 77-68 and Boston College 75-67 last week. But the Orange’s 12-6 SU record is a lot better than Notre Dame’s 9-10 SU and I’m a little perplexed as to why this number would be so low at home. I’ve got the ‘Cuse rated as the better team and they’ve gone an impressive 10-1 SU this season at the Carrier Dome, including a dominant win over Top 25 Virginia Tech. They’re outscoring visitors by an average of 12.7 points per game. 

Syracuse is currently just one game back of the top four in the ACC, which would give them a double bye for the conference tournament. So it’s a big game for them today. Looking at the remaining schedule, they absolutely can win out. The Orange do an excellent job at defending the three-point line, especially at home where they allow opponents to shoot just 28% from behind the arc. That’s critical when facing Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish rank only 142nd nationally in defensive efficiency, which is a problem. 8* Syracuse

7* Atletico Madrid (10:15 AM ET): The La Liga table leaders are out for revenge Saturday as they face the same side that played them to a surprising 1-1 draw on Wednesday. This immediate rematch is brought about by rescheduling due to COVID. When I say that the 1-1 draw Wednesday was “surprising,” I mean in multiple ways. First off, Levante is a middle of the table side that’s 10 points back of Europa League qualifying. Also, Atletico Madrid had substantial edges in possession time and shots on goal. 

I’ve said it before, but Atletico Madrid just may be the best team in all of Europe this season. They’ll get a chance to prove that when they face Chelsea as Champions League play resumes Tuesday. But here on the domestic side of things, there is no denying just how dominant Atletico has been. While two of their four draws have come over the previous three fixtures, they’ve still suffered only one defeat this entire campaign. They are six points clear of second place Real Madrid (with a match in hand) and a +31 YTD goal differential. 

Levante is winless in its last 14 away matches here. It’s difficult to imagine them earning a second consecutive draw, even with Atletico having “bigger things” on its mind (ie. Tuesday’s 1st leg vs Chelsea). Levante has also conceded 33 times this season, more than double the number of time Atletico has, and among the most in all of La Liga. They’ve won just once in their last six La Liga matches. Scoring early on Wednesday was key to earning the point. Don’t see that happening again. 7* Atletico Madrid

10* Tarleton State (9:00 ET): This is a battle of squads wrapping up their first regular season in Division I. The WAC, a real “rogue’s gallery” of a conference, welcomed both schools for 2020-21 and as you might have guessed, it hasn’t gone great for either Tarleton State or Dixie State. The former is 6-8 SU while the latter has gone 7-10 SU after an upset of Utah Valley State (as 11-point underdogs) last Saturday. Tarleton State has played only two games in February (because of COVID) and both were against non-DI opponents that they easily defeated by a combined score of 209-80. 

Prior to manhandling overmatched McMurry and SW Adventist, Tarleton State did the same thing that Dixie State just did. That being split with Utah Valley State. It was the same thing with an outright win in the second game preceded by a DD loss in the first. So the Texans actually come into this game riding a three-game win streak. Now all but one of their victories this year have been versus non-DI teams. But, believe it or not, my power ratings say they should be about a 5-point road favorite here. That’s a major difference from the actual spread. 

History could be made here if Dixie State closes as a favorite. It would be the Trailblazers’ first time ever being favored vs. a D-I opponent. Now similarly, Tarleton State has never been favored in such a game. But they’ve had more time to prepare for this game (10 days) and should be more than ready. I know it seems “risky” taking a “bad” team, but Tarleton State is the much better side here and the oddsmakers aren’t accounting for that. 10* Tarleton State

10* Golden State (7:05 ET): Well, here we go again. Golden State is coming off B2B wins. This is a situation where they are 0-6 this season, both straight up and against the spread. On the bright side, the Warriors haven’t lost three in a row at any point this season either. They are now 16-13 overall and in 7th place in the Western Conference. They’ve won four of five, the only loss coming to Brooklyn last Saturday. At some point, you have to figure the Dubs are going to break through and deliver that elusive three-game win streak. I believe that time is tonight as they face a lowly Magic team they beat last week.

Golden State did not cover last week against Orlando as they were nine-point favorites in what turned out to be a 111-105 victory. Steph Curry made 10 three-pointers in that game and it was really just one bad quarter that cost the Warriors the cover that day (they were outscored 36-18 in the second). Curry did not have a good shooting night against Miami on Wednesday, but the team was still able to rally from a 19-point deficit to win 120-112 in overtime. That followed a 31-point win over Cleveland.

I realize that the Warriors are a bit short-handed right now and Orlando is healthier than they were last week. But the spread is short and Dubs are due. Orlando is off a rare win (107-89 against the Knicks), but has not won two straight since a couple victories over Cleveland back in early January. They are just 5-16 SU since and have the third worst point differential in the NBA this season. The spread is shorter than it was last week and it’s not like Orlando has any kind of strong home court advantage. They are losing by an average of 10.2 PPG as a home underdog. 10* Golden State

8* Under Oakland/Milwaukee (6:00 ET): You would be correct for saying it feels like “we’ve been here before” with Oakland. The Golden Grizzlies started their season with a rash of Overs before we took them (and cashed) Under in a game against Detroit on December 26th. That game stayed Under despite going to OT. Oakland has largely remained an “Over team” this season and is now on its longest Over streak (5 straight games) since I played that Under two months ago. It’s time to go Under again on Friday. 

Milwaukee will also be entering this game on a 5-game Over streak. The last four have all been losses. The Panthers had the tough assignment of facing Wright State on the road last weekend and gave up 92 points in both games. The final scores were nearly identical as Milwaukee scored 81 and 82 in the two games. Two things killed the Panthers in the second game with Wright State. They sent the Raiders to the FT line 26 times (WSU went 24-26) and allowed them to hit 10 of 19 3PA. Truthfully, things were not much better in either department in the first game of the weekend. 

But Milwaukee isn’t facing Wright State tonight, they’re facing Oakland. The Golden Grizzlies don’t shoot the ball very well (41.3% overall) despite going Over all the time. The issue (for both teams) all year has been poor defense. But this looks like it will certainly close as the highest O/U line all year for Milwaukee and it’ll be right up there with the highest for Oakland, who is only 4-4 Over when the number is 150.0 or higher. 8* Under Oakland/Milwaukee

8* VfL Wolfsburg (2:30 ET): Teams at opposite ends of the Bundesliga table meet Friday when Wolfsburg travels to face Arminia Bielefeld. Wolfsburg is tied with another surprising side, Eintracht Frankfurt, for third place and can have that position to itself. Given Frankfurt is facing Bayern Munich Saturday, this represents an excellent chance for the Wolves to make a move. Arminia Bielefeld is simply trying to fight off relegation and move out of the bottom three as they are in 16th place right now. 

Both these sides played to a draw last week. I’d argue that Bielefeld’s draw was both more impressive and more disappointing. They had Bayern Munich on the ropes, twice holding a two-goal lead. But they had to settle for a 3-3 final against the kings of Europe, a result they gladly would have taken going into the fixture, but are probably disheartened over given they probably should have taken the full three points. Meanwhile, Wolfsburg played to a 0-0 draw with Gladbach, which had to be hugely unsatisfying given they held an edge in both shots and possession. 

That draw may have been a disappointment, however, Wolfsburg had won their four previous Bundesliga matches and have only been beaten twice the entire campaign. That’s tied for the fewest losses in the entire league. They’ve got a huge matchup advantage here in that they have conceded only 19 goals this season, second fewest in the league, while Bielefeld has scored the second FEWEST goals in the league (18). Before we go giving Bielefeld “too much credit” for last week’s draw, note they had an extra week to prepare and were outshot badly. 8* Wolfsburg

10* Under Heat/Kings (10:05 ET): The Heat have lost three in a row. The Kings have lost four in a row. So something is going to have to give in the lone NBA matchup NOT being televised on TNT Thursday night. Placing the Heat at a disadvantage is the fact they played last night at Golden State where they lost 120-112 in overtime. But the Kings certainly weren’t as good as their record BEFORE going 0-4 SU/ATS L4 games (all at home). They have the third worst point differential in the Western Conference.

It was 105-105 at the end of regulation last night for the Heat, a score that sends a “shiver” down my spine. That’s because it was the same exact score for Chicago-Indiana Monday night when overtime similarly ruined an Under play I had. The fact that last night’s game stayed Under by double digits in regulation absolutely should be accounted for here. I know the Kings are bad defensively, but Miami has failed to score more than 105 pts in regulation in four of its last five games. They are 27th in the league in scoring.

Sacramento’s last three games have all gone Over the total as they’ve allowed 123, 124 and 136 points. Again, I know they are bad defensively. But this could be as favorable a matchup as they’ve gotten in a while at that end of the floor. When these teams met three weeks ago, it was a 105-104 final (Miami win) and neither team shot all that poorly. I don’t see why we should expect in excess of 15 more points scored the second time around. The Heat are 7-3 Under in non-conference games. 10* Under Heat/Kings

8* Rutgers (9:00 ET): After a three-week hiatus, #3 Michigan was successful in its return to the court Sunday. They downed #21 Wisconsin 67-59, however you shouldn’t be fooled by that score as the Wolverines trailed by 12 at halftime. Given the long layoff, I suppose a slow start by the Maize and Blue shouldn’t have been all that surprising. And their performance in the second half was definitely impressive. But I simply want no part of them laying this many points to a “sneaky” Rutgers team that could use a “signature” win to strengthen its own NCAA Tournament resume. Take the points here. 

Rutgers’ only loss in its last six games was at Iowa last Wednesday. They shot very poorly from the 3-point range (6 of 28) and attempted only six free throws in the game. Obviously, 66 points will almost never “cut it” in Iowa City. However, the Scarlet Knights did bounce back over the weekend with a 64-50 win against Northwestern. That kind of effort at the defensive end will almost ALWAYS “get it done.” Rutgers comes into tonight ranked #14 in the country in defensive efficiency. This is the most points they’ve gotten in any game so far this season. Given they were “only” +6.5 at Iowa (who I think is a little better than Michigan), I’m surprised this line opened so high. 

Rutgers has NEVER beaten Michigan in 13 all-time tries. But they’ve played them tough in each of the L3 seasons. This is the only time they’re scheduled to meet in 2021. The Wolverines have obviously been impressive and can make a claim to be the best team in the country, besides Gonzaga and Baylor. But they’ve still only played one game in three weeks and it saw them start slow. Rutgers has held its last five opponents to a field goal percentage of 37.5. 8* Rutgers

10* UCLA (9:00 ET): Because they’ve failed to cover in seven straight contests, we are getting a discounted price on the Bruins tonight. I’ll bite. Mick Cronin’s team was able to win Saturday, 64-61 over Washington, thanks to a career-high 32 points from Johnny Juzang. With the number being so short here, the pointspread is basically a non-factor against an Arizona team that has lost four of its last six games and at this point should be considered a “long-shot” to make the NCAA Tournament. UCLA is a perfect 9-0 SU at home this season, not to mention 4-0 SU/ATS the L3 seasons vs. the Wildcats, so I’m on the favorites. 

You’ve got to remember that UCLA got off to a 8-0 start in Pac 12 play. Two of their five losses this year were to Ohio State and San Diego State (both ranked) and another by just a single point (at Stanford). They’ve already beaten Arizona once, 81-76 as four-point underdogs on Tucson back on January 9th. Because of the win over Washington on Saturday, the Bruins are probably the only team in the Pac 12 that can catch USC and they host the Trojans in the regular season finale. 

Arizona lost at home to Oregon on Saturday, 63-61 as a 1.5-point favorite. They’ve also lost their last two road games. HC Sean Miller called his team’s defense “horrible” after the 1st loss to UCLA and I’d have to concur as they’ve allowed 80+ points five times in conference play. This is a team that gets most of its offensive production from freshman and at the free throw line, not exactly a winning combination on the road. UCLA has won its nine home games by an average of 14.1 PPG. This looks like a bargain. 10* UCLA

6* Tottenham (12:55 ET): Tottenham Hotspur looks to shake off its recent poor domestic form and return to its winning ways in the Europa League on Thursday. The Spurs’ opposition for the Round of 32 is Wolfsberger, an Austrian Bundesliga side that is competing in the knockout stage of a major European competition for the very first time. As the odds indicate, anything but a comfortable win for Tottenham in this first leg would be a major shocker. I expect a comfortable win.

Note: this match is being played in Budapest (Puskas Arena) due to COVID-19 protocols. So there’s no home turf advantage for Wolfsberger, making the mountain an even more difficult climb. They finished second in Group K, which didn’t include any teams from Europe’s Big 5 leagues. They won three, lost two and drew once in the Group Stage, finishing with a +1 goal differential. Quite frankly, that’s not all that impressive and they are not used to the level of competition they’ll face here in the Round of 32. Wolfsberger is only sixth in the Austrian Bundesliga currently, so it’s not like they’re even dominating the lesser competition. 

In the midst of a disappointing Premier League campaign (six points out of the top four), Tottenham can still salvage some dignity by winning the Europa League. They are among the favorites to do so after winning Group J by taking 13 of a possible 18 points. They had a goal differential of +10. This is Tottenham’s 10th time in the Europa League knockout stage and Jose Mourinho hasn’t lost an away knockout match since 2002. 6* Tottenham

10* Over Blazers/Pelicans (9:05 ET): The Blazers have moved into a fourth-place tie (w/ Phoenix) in the Western Conference standings. They won their fifth in a row last night, beating Oklahoma City 115-104. Damian Lillard led the way with 31 points, 12 of those coming in the fourth quarter. That Portland has continued to win in the face of two key injuries (McCollum, Nurkic) is pretty impressive, but let’s see how they do here in the second night of a back to back. They are 5-0 ATS during the 5-game win streak. 

New Orleans is just outside the top 10 in the West right now, although they have scored more points than they’ve allowed. That’s thanks to an impressive 144-113 win in Memphis last night, the fifth straight Pelicans game to go Over the total. These games aren’t just “sneaking” over either; they’re FLYING over. There have been three separate times in the five games that NO has scored at least 130 points. They even lost one of them! They’ve allowed 123 or more points three times as well. 

Seeing as Portland is 29th in the league in defensive efficiency, this has all the makings of another high-scoring Pelicans’ game. The teams haven’t met in roughly a year, but the last two times produced combined point totals of 243 and 255. Both were Pelicans’ victories as they averaged 133 PPG. They shot 61% last night, including 19 of 38 from three. The previous three games saw them ALLOW an alarming shooting percentage of more than 55%. The Over is 11-3 in games where the Pelicans are favored. 10* Over Blazers/Pelicans

8* Boise State (9:00 ET): I can’t see the Broncos losing again here, especially at home. They come into tonight’s important Mountain West clash with Utah State having gone just 3-3 SU their last six games. This after starting the season 12-1 SU with the only loss coming to Houston, a legit top ten team, in the season opener. BSU swept a pair of home games with UNLV last weekend and it’s developing into a VERY tight four team race atop the MWC. All of Boise’s losses this year have been on the road. 

These teams are basically tied for first in the Mountain West, though technically Utah State is ahead by percentage points with an 11-2 SU conference record while Boise State is 12-3. Lurking right behind is Colorado State (who BSU split with in Fort Collins) at 11-3. But then you’ve got perhaps the best team, San Diego State, who is ranked #25 in the country despite being in fourth place in the conference! Utah State swept San Diego State and split with Colorado State, but the key is all four of those games were at home. 

Tonight marks the fourth consecutive road game for USU. They’ll also play here Friday. However, the big key is the Aggies haven’t played in 13 days due to COVID. Three straight games were postponed. So they are out of “rhythm” heading into this critical clash. Boise State is not only 8-0 SU at home, they are allowing just 58.5 PPG and winning by more than 17 points per game. I think it’s a steal that we are able to get them at such a cheap price Wednesday night. 8* Boise State 

8* Over DePaul/Seton Hall (8:30 ET): DePaul has gone Under in 10 straight games. The most recent was their lowest scoring yet, a 57-47 home loss to Providence. The Blue Demons are really struggling to shoot the ball right now as they have a field goal percentage well below 40% the L4 games. That number has GOT to improve. Tonight they are at Seton Hall, a team they scored 68 against earlier in the season while shooting 41.7%. That game was actually early in DePaul’s Under streak, but it’s certainly worth noting that the total for the rematch is 10 points lower.

Meanwhile, Seton Hall will be going for a fourth straight win tonight. They beat Marquette 57-51 here at home on Sunday, So both teams are coming off REALLY low-scoring games. Seton Hall shot just 37% vs. Marquette, but was at 52% when they beat DePaul last month. The Pirates have an excellent shot at winning out, which would greatly improve their NCAA Tournament chances, presuming they don’t “flame out” in the Big East Tourney. 

I know there’s not much recent evidence to support it, but I do see this game going Over the total. DePaul could be missing two of its top scorers, but this is a REALLY low total and Seton Hall scored 80 points two games ago. DePaul gives up 76.5 PPG on the road, which is key, and if Seton Hall can get to 80 tonight (very doable), then we’re in good shape. The first meeting would have gone Over this total. A 10-point shift in the O/U line is A LOT. 8* Over DePaul/Seton Hall

8* Valparaiso (8:00 ET): #23 Loyola Chicago was a big winner for me on Saturday as they rode a huge second half to an 81-54 blowout of Drake. But the Ramblers weren’t able to sweep the weekend series, losing Sunday in overtime by a score of 51-50. While they now have to be more concerned with keeping Drake (1 GB) “at arms’ length” in the race for the regular season Missouri Valley crown, this is a classic letdown spot for Loyola and they are laying a HUGE number against Valparaiso. I’m taking the points. 

Now the fact Loyola only allowed 105 points in two games over the weekend, one of which went to overtime, has to be a bit scary for Valpo here. Especially since they could only score 39 in the first meeting with the Ramblers, which was at home last month. As you could probably ascertain, it was a dreadful shooting game for Valpo, who was held to 30.6% overall and 3 of 20 from 3-pt range. You’ve gotta figure they’re going to shoot better tonight. Their FG% is at 44.6 L5 games. 

The Crusaders are off a loss here, 74-60 at Northern Iowa Sunday. While I don’t think for a second that they are likely to pull the outright upset tonight, this is a ton of points they’re getting and there’s been only one other time besides the first Loyola game that Valpo lost by more than 20 points. Last year’s three meetings with Loyola were decided by a total of SIX points. The Ramblers are 1-5 ATS their last six games as a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points, including 0-2 this season. 8* Valparaiso

10* Over Nets/Suns (10:35 ET): This should be a fun one from Phoenix Tuesday night on TNT. The Suns are most definitely a “team on the rise” (see what I did there) in the Western Conference as they are currently 4th in the standings. Their ascension really began last August in the bubble when they won every game. That may not have been enough to make the playoffs last season, but I’d bank on there being postseason basketball in the desert in 2021, which would be the 1st time that's happened in 11 years. 

Brooklyn is a team that believes it can win a NBA Championship. They’ve won three straight while also covering the spread against Indiana, Golden State and Sacramento. However, even with that win streak, the Nets are still only 17-12 SU and third in the Eastern Conference. This West Coast trip has definitely gotten off to a high-scoring start as the team has topped 130 points in both wins. The Nets now lead the league in scoring (121.4 PPG), but defense is an issue as only the Wizards and Kings allow more points per game. They just faced the Kings last night and a total of 261 total points were scored!

So it shouldn’t be a surprise to learn that the Nets are one of the league’s top Over teams. They have the second highest Over percentage for the season (21-8) and only three of their previous 23 games have stayed Under. Not to be outdone, Phoenix is shooting a blistering 51.6% its last five games and has won six straight. While three of those wins have required no more than 109 points, it’s a MUCH different matchup tonight and even with Kevin Durant not playing, this game is likely to go Over. 10* Over Nets/Suns

10* Loyola Marymount (9:00 ET): This is the second meeting of the season for these WCC rivals. Santa Clara pulled the upset the first time, winning 72-69 as 4.5-point road underdogs. That game took place on January 23rd and the Broncos haven’t played since. Their last six games have been postponed due to COVID and two of those were going to be against #1 Gonzaga. Loyola Marymount has also had some postponements, but they’ve gotten in two games since the loss to Santa Clara. They won both, by 25 at Portland and then by four at home against Pacific over the weekend. I’m taking them in the rematch. 

LMU closed Saturday’s game vs. Pacific on a massive 31-13 run, enabling them to pick up the victory. They shot a blistering 55.3% from the field, including 11 of 21 from three-point range. The Lions were also able to “double up” the Tigers in FT attempts for the game. Maybe they won’t shoot that well again tonight, but they probably don’t have to when you consider Santa Clara is averaging only 65.6 PPG and that number actually DROPS here at home. LMU is averaging 69.8 PPG on the season. 

There has been only one time all year that Loyola Marymount has lost as a favorite and it was the first meeting with Santa Clara. The Lions didn’t shoot well that night, but this time it figures to be Santa Clara that struggles offensively due to the long layoff. Loyola Marymount could easily be on a 5-game win streak right now as both losses they’ve suffered during that stretch were by four points or less. They are 5-1 ATS their L6 as a road favorite. The road team has covered seven straight times in this WCC rivalry. 10* Loyola Marymount

8* Michigan State (7:00 ET): There’s been a big change in the pointspread since the last time these teams met. Back on January 8th, MSU hosted Purdue and was a six-point favorite. They lost 55-54, but I don’t think that singular result, or even the fact it’s been a very trying season in East Lansing, justifies the massive swing we’ve got for this rematch. Purdue is off a loss as well, 71-68 at Minnesota, and has only managed to go 2-3 SU its last five games. I’m taking the points here. 

Now Sparty did just get clobbered at home over the weekend, losing by 30 to Iowa (88-58). That leaves them at 4-8 SU, 2-10 ATS in conference play. (Like I said earlier, it’s been a trying season). However, before that ugly loss, Tom Izzo’s team had won two in a row. Let’s be clear here that Purdue is NOT Iowa. While the Boilermakers were ranked as recently as last week, they’ve been involved in a lot of close games recently. Six of their last 11 games have been decided by five points or less, including four of the last six and each of the last three. 

The first meeting saw Michigan State own a 15-point halftime advantage, but they missed 11 of their last 13 field goal attempts and that’s why they lost by one point. You have to figure Izzo will have his team ready to play after being embarrassed by Iowa on Saturday. Purdue didn’t play over the weekend. The fact the Boilermakers have just one win by more than five points in their last six games looms large in my handicapping of this game. This should be a close, low-scoring battle and I give the underdogs a very good shot at winning outright. 8* Michigan State

8* Cleveland (10:05 ET): Already in a terrible way, the Cavs find themselves in the second night of a back to back against old nemesis Golden State. Of course, things are a lot different now than they were when LeBron James was here. Going back to the 2017 Finals, Cleveland has lost 14 of 15 to the Warriors including an 0-9 SU record since James left. They are just 2-7 ATS in those nine losses. However, this isn’t the same Warriors team either (compared to 2017). I actually think this spread is quite inflated. 

Saturday night saw a troubling pattern continue for the Warriors. For the sixth time this season, they were coming off B2B wins. And for the sixth time they failed to win a third straight game. The Dubs are now 0-6 ATS when off B2B wins this season, after falling to the Nets 134-117 here at home Saturday night. Now they also have yet to suffer three consecutive losses this season, but the point is that Golden State is decidedly mediocre. They’ve actually only been favored in 9 of their 27 games, a far cry from how they used to be priced in their “championship years.” 

Now Cleveland is obviously not Brooklyn and no longer is Golden State off B2B wins. But I still view this spread as being a product of the perception of Cleveland and the situation they find themselves in. Seven straight losses doesn’t help that perception, but that’s okay as this is a clear chance to “fade the public.” The fact the Cavs are also 1-9 ATS L10 also has inflated the number. I just don’t think they’re quite *THAT* bad and will take the points. 8* Cleveland

8* Washington (8:00 ET): Washington is pretty bad (they are 3-16 SU!), but I actually don’t think Washington State is all that much better. When the Apple Cup rivals met two weeks ago, the Huskies were actually slight favorites. Now they lost that game by 15 points and now they’re on the road, but still I think the line is too high for this rematch. The Huskies played UCLA tough over the weekend, losing by just three (at home) while Wazzu was beaten by 11 (also at home) by USC. Take the points here.

Washington never actually led against UCLA on Saturday, but did show a lot of resolve by battling back from an early double-digit deficit to tie the game in the final minutes. They did so despite not even shooting the ball that well (36.2% overall) while UCLA made not only 47.1% overall, but 50% from three-point range. I know that the Huskies are winless on the road this season (0-10!), but this might be the best chance to pick up a road win all season. My power ratings say the spread should be no higher than +5. 

Washington State actually upset UCLA here in Pullman last Thursday. But they could not match the hot shooting from that game in the loss to USC. The Cougars have lost 8 of 11 overall and while all three wins have come in the last five games, tonight marks the 1st time they’ve been favored in over a month. Leading scorer Isaac Bonton had to be helped off the floor at the end of the game Saturday (ankle) and he’s not the only player questionable for this game (Jakimovski). 8* Washington

10* Under Bulls/Pacers (7:05 ET): Indiana had a big fourth quarter (41 points) Saturday night and wound up picking up a road win in Atlanta. They outscored the Hawks 27-7 down the stretch en route to a final score of 125-113. Meanwhile, Chicago is off a loss to the Clippers (125-106 as 7-point underdogs) where they couldn’t come close to the shooting from their previous game (made franchise record 25 three-pointers in a 129-116 win over New Orleans on Wednesday). Let’s talk about what to expect here. 

Prior to winning in Atlanta, the Pacers’ previous four games had all gone Under. In two of the games, both losses, they were held under 100 points. So what we saw Saturday, especially in the fourth quarter, is NOT something you should expect here tonight. The Pacers have now won two straight, but before that had lost six of seven. The one win was high scoring (134-116 against Memphis), but they immediately came back “down to Earth” in the next game and scored just 110. That’s what I expect to transpire tonight.

Chicago hasn’t beaten Indiana in awhile. They’ve lost the last TEN meetings, a streak which goes all the way back to the start of 2018. The last four times these division rivals have met, the game has gone Over. This includes a 125-106 Indiana win the day after X-Mas. But, as already alluded to, I anticipate this game being lower-scoring. The Pacers shot almost 56% from the field in that last meeting, which won’t happen again. Nor will the Bulls make 41% from three-point range again. 10* Under Bulls/Pacers

8* Memphis (10:05 ET): My 10* Game of the Week in the NBA faded Sacramento, who I felt was due for a downturn. Sure enough, they lost that game 119-111 (to Philadelphia) and have now dropped two in a row at home after losing 123-112 to lowly Orlando on Friday night. Before losing B2B games, the Kings had won seven of eight (and gone 8-0 ATS), which I viewed as somewhat improbable given they rank dead last in defensive efficiency (meaning no team gives up more points per possession) and they are pretty clearly a bottom three team in the Western Conference. 

Memphis has not had much to cheer about recently as they’ve dropped five of six - both SU and ATS. This downturn came on the heels of their own somewhat improbable run as they’d won seven in a row from January 8th to February 1st, also going 6-0-1 ATS. When I woke up early Saturday morning, I had to do a “double-take” when I saw the Grizzlies’ final score against the Lakers. They lost 115-105, which isn’t that surprising on the surface, but consider they started that game on a 22-2 run! When I saw that score prior to falling asleep, I (foolishly?) assumed the Grizz were on their way to a nice victory. 

Now Memphis will be short-handed tonight (just 9 players available), but that didn’t stop them from racing out to the huge lead against the Lakers, whom they held to 6 of 30 from three-point range. Sacramento could also be missing a key player - PG D’Aaron Fox - who missed the Orlando game. Marvin Bagley III also missed that game and is also listed as questionable. In the end, I simply view Memphis as the superior team here and due for a better result after the meltdown vs. the Lakers. Sacramento is 0-3 ATS this season off a SU loss as a favorite. 8* Memphis

10* Dallas (7:35 ET): I used the Mavs on Friday when they beat the Pelicans 143-130. It was their fourth straight win following a six-game losing streak. In my analysis, I made clear that I expect the Mavs to start moving up the Western Conference standings and finish in the top six. They had the most efficient offense in the league last season and were actually better than their record. That they are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games has them undervalued at home on Sunday vs. Portland. 

The Blazers also come into tonight’s game on a win streak. They’ve won three straight and are now 5th in the West. But I expect these teams to be “switching positions” by season’s end. All three recent Blazers’ victories have been at home and two were against Orlando and Cleveland. My biggest concern with this team is not that they are without both CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic for an indefinite period of time, but rather the fact they are 29th in the league in defensive efficiency. There’s been some recent improvement on that end of the floor, but that’s largely owed to the teams they were facing.

Dallas just dropped a season-high in points its last time out with Luka Doncic scoring a career-high 46 and Kristaps Porzingis scoring a season-best 36. Now, will things go that easily again? Probably not. But I do think the Mavs are going to score a lot in this game. While their three wins before beating the Pelicans were by a combined eight points, the Mavs are due to go on a nice ATS run and I’ll definitely lay the points here. 10* Dallas

10* Maryland (7:00 ET): The Terps have been a bad matchup for Minnesota in the past, going 9-2 SU the L11 meetings including a perfect 4-0 the L4 here in College Park. They won 63-49 last month in Minneapolis, a result that was owed to an edge in rebounding and poor Minnesota shooting. The Golden Gophers connected on just 30.4% of their field goal attempts for the game and were 5 of 23 from three-point range. I’m a little surprised that this number opened so short. I’ll lay the points.

Now Minnesota is off a 71-68 win over #24 Purdue. Despite the Boilermakers being ranked, oddsmakers did NOT consider that to be an upset as the Golden Gophers came in as 2.5-point favorites. Still, the Gophers did need to rally in the final two minutes as they were down five. They outscored Purdue 12-4 over the final 2:10 with leading scorer Marcus Carr providing the difference with eight (points) of his own. While 3-0 ATS its last 3 games, it must be mentioned that Minnesota is 0-6 SU on the road this season.

The individual results have been every bit as ugly as the record for Minnesota on the road. They’ve lost the six games by an average of 17.3 PPG, allowing opponents to shoot 52.8% from the floor while they are shooting just 34.1% themselves. They’ve covered just one spread on the road this season and that was at Rutgers when they were getting 5.5 in a 76-72 loss. Maryland shoots the ball better than Minnesota and has a higher defensive efficiency rating. They also hold victories over Illinois and Wisconsin (both on the road!) 10* Maryland

8* Central Florida (1:00 ET): Cincinnati’s season was halted for nearly a month. Since returning to the court (on 2/4), the Bearcats are 3-0. However, those three wins have come by a COMBINED eight points and none were by more than three. As you probably guessed, all three games were not decided until the final minute. The most recent escape came on Friday against Temple as a few late free throws ensured a 71-69 victory (but not a cover). I think the Bearcats are due to lose and will take the points here.

Central Florida  is also off a narrow win on Friday as they beat Tulane 53-49. The Golden Knights held the Green Wave to just 19 points after halftime, which was the key to victory. There haven’t been too many victories this season in Orlando as UCF is just 3-9 SU its L12 games. But they’ve won two of the last three and the lone loss was by one point (61-60) to Wichita State. The Golden Knights have allowed an average of just 56 PPG during this three-game stretch, something I like to see from an underdog. 

Cincinnati has not been at .500 at any point this season. They come into Sunday at 6-7 SU on the year. They had really been struggling prior to the season being put on pause and three consecutive razor-thin victories are not enough to convince me this team is anything but mediocre. The Bearcats really struggle from three-point range (28.7%) and in what promises to be a very low-scoring game, you’re going to want to take the points. UCF won the first meeting 75-70 as a 2-point dog. 8* Central Florida

10* Sassuolo (12:00 ET): I can’t say I’m surprised to see that Sassuolo has tumbled down the table a bit as I’ve previously faded them multiple times. Their winless run in Serie A now stands at five straight matches with three of those being defeats. This poor form has them down in 8th place and nine points out of the top four. However, it would certainly appear that we are able to get them at a real “bargain” on Sunday as they travel to face bottom of the table Crotone, whose recent form has been even worse.

It will take nothing short of a miracle for Crotone to escape relegation. Sure, they are technically only five points away from safety, but conceding at a rate of 2.5 goals per match is certainly not a recipe for success. Their 50 goals allowed this season are easily Serie A’s most with the second most being Spezia’s 42 and Crotone has a game in hand compared to them. The Squali have now lost five of six after being drubbed 4-1 by Milan last week and there are few signs of hope for this side right now.

The reverse fixture took place back in October and saw Sassuolo prevail by a score of 4-1. At the time, the Neroverdi were in the midst of three consecutive matches with four goals scored. They haven’t matched that output in any fixture since, but with Domenico Berardi set to return, they very well could do it here. Last week’s surprising 2-1 loss to Spezia still fresh in the mind, Sassulo can’t let the opportunity for three points bypass them here after previous draws against the likes of Cagliari and Parma. 10* Sassuolo

6* Eintracht Frankfurt (9:30 AM ET): Frankfurt looks to continue its incredible recent form on Sunday as they host FC Koln. Their last loss occurred all the way back on 12/11 to Wolfsburg, a side they can pass by picking up the three points here. Since losing to Wolfsburg, Frankfurt is unbeaten in nine consecutive Bundesliga matches, winning seven and drawing two. They are currently 5th in the table, but if things break right, they could end up as high as third (and back in Champions League qualifying position) were they to win here. I believe they will.

Koln is at the other end of the table, sitting in 14th place. But they have won three of their last four Bundesliga fixtures and are currently four points clear of the relegation zone. Just last week they ended an 8-match unbeaten streak of Gladbach, so they will be the proverbial “tough out.” However, they still have a -13 goal differential on the season and have scored only half the number of goals that Frankfurt has. The reverse fixture may have been 1-1, but this is a much different Frankfurt team that Koln will be facing this time around.

Even as someone who expected Frankfurt to improve this campaign (go back and check my early season analysis!), even I have been taken aback by the recent form. They’ve scored at least two goals in nine consecutive matches and found the back of the net 11 times in just the last three. Andre Silva and Filip Kostic are as potent as any duo in Europe right now and I just see too much firepower for Koln to keep up. With both Dortmund and Leverkusen held to a draw yday, the door is now wide open for Frankfurt to move back into the top four and I say they take advantage and get the full three. 6* Eintracht Frankfurt

8* Under Hernandez/Vieira (9:40 ET): This is a fight in the middleweight division (185 lbs), scheduled for three rounds. Vieira is a prohibitive favorite here (nearly -400 on the money line as of this writing) and for good reason as he comes in with a 7-0 career record, including 2-0 in the UFC. Hernandez is 7-2 in his career, but just 1-2 in the UFC. Oddsmakers expect this bout to be over in pretty short order and I agree. I’ll take the Under 1.5 rounds here, meaning there will be a winner before the halfway point of Round 2. 

Vieria has an impressive background in Brazilian ju-jitsu and a solid submission game. He has finished all seven opponents he’s faced, six of them by submission, and five of the seven fights have ended in the first round. Only one has made it to the third round. It was an arm-triangle choke that got the win in both UFC fights, first against Oskar Piechota in August of ‘19, then against Saparbek Safarov in March of last year. My only concern about him is that he did absorb some punishment from Safarov and isn’t particularly great when on his feet.

Keeping this fight standing is probably the only viable path Hernandez has to victory here. The problem is he is often TOO aggressive and is likely to be taken down with ease. Once that happens, it’s over. I see Vieira getting Hernandez down and finishing this one early, but the beauty of taking the Under is that if Hernandez gets a “lucky punch,” it’s just as good. None of Hernandez’s three UFC fights have made it to the third round and he was TKO’d in just 39 seconds (by Kevin Holland) his last time out. Seven of his 10 career fights have ended in Round 1. 8* Under Hernandez/Vieira

8* Golden State (8:35 ET): This Saturday night matchup figures to get a lot of hype as Kevin Durant faces his former team. Of course, Brooklyn is now the “super team” with Durant combining forces with Kyrie Irving and James Harden. But the results haven’t been quite as dominant as you’d expect with the Nets still only third in the Eastern Conference with a 15-12 record. They are just 6-6 SU since the Harden trade, although they did win their last game, 104-94 over Indiana Wednesday night.

Golden State is just trying to get back to respectability following last season’s injury-plagued debacle. We’re probably never going to see them reach the heights of the teams that made five consecutive NBA Finals, but the Warriors have been looking better of late (two straight wins) and are now 8th in the Western Conference. After winning 114-91 in San Antonio on Tuesday, they defeated Orlando 111-105 on Thursday. It was the third straight game holding the opposition to 105 pts or less, precisely the kind of defensive effort I am looking for here.

The big story (besides Durant’s return) tonight is the fact the Dubs have yet to produce a single three-game win streak this season. It’s going to happen and with them getting points at home, tonight looks to be a solid value. Durant, who has been cleared, hasn’t suited up since last Friday so he could very well be rusty in a high-profile spot. The fact the Nets are allowing 122.3 PPG on the road this season is another concern. Golden State is simply much better defensively as they allow only 108.4 PPG at home. 8* Golden State

THIS WAS AN INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY! NO ACTION!

10* Over 76ers/Suns (3:05 ET): Phoenix comes into this game on a 4-game win streak. All four wins were at home and they’ve covered the spread every time out. The most impressive of the four victories came Wednesday when the Suns erased a 16-point deficit and beat Milwaukee 125-124. There is no doubt that this is an ascendent team in the Western Conference, after last year’s incredible performance in the “bubble” and current 4th place standing. No one will want to face them in the first round of the playoffs. 

Philadelphia is the first place team in the Eastern Conference as they own an 18-8 SU record. But they did just drop a game in Portland the other night, as 5.5-point favorites, 118-114. I’d previously taken them in Sacramento (that was my 10* Game of the Week) and they came from behind in the 4th quarter there to win 119-111. The Sixers’ only two losses in the L8 games both came against Portland (weird) and over the L7 they’ve managed to score at least 114 points six times, which is their season average.

This total looks a little low to me. The last four times the teams have played, the Over has hit. There have been more than 230 total pts scored in each of the teams’ last two games. The Over is 6-2 in the Suns’ last eight games following a SU win. The Over is also 13-6 in the Sixers’ L19 games, including 5-2 on the road. 10* Over 76ers/Suns

10* UT Arlington (3:00 ET): These teams just met Thursday. It was Texas State coming away with a 63-56 victory as 1.5-point road favorites. Now they’re favored by more at home, which is not a surprise at all, but it certainly opens up an opportunity to take the points with a revenge-minded dog. I certainly would have expected better shooting from UT Arlington at home than the 36.8% they delivered 48 hours ago. They also missed 19 of 25 three-point attempts. It’s been a bit of a rough shooting stretch recently for the Mavericks and as a result, they’ve gone 0-5 ATS L5 games. But they’ve won three of them straight up and I’m taking the points here.

UT Arlington has typically done a good job at the defensive end in league play, holding the opposition to 68 points or less in seven of the last eight games. While they’ve been an underdog prior to this, it’s never been by more than two points, at least to any Sun Belt opposition. This feels like a “buy low” spot.  You’ve got to think they are about to start heating up at the offensive end as they are averaging a solid 73.9 PPG for the year.

Texas State leads the Sun Belt West with an 8-3 SU record, but UT Arlington is just one back in the win column (7-6). The Bobcats have won and covered three straight despite scoring 63 or less in two of the games, so they’re playing excellent defense. But I don’t think the win Thursday necessitates a spread this high, even with the change in home court “advantage.” Texas State is just 5-3 SU at home including a couple loss to Louisiana in late January. With so many of the recent head to head meetings being close (five straight by 8 pts or less), taking the points here is a must. 10* UT Arlington

6* AC Milan (2:45 ET): Table leaders AC Milan look to extend their advantage over Inter as they travel to face surprising Spezia. AC Milan has not won Serie A in a decade, but right now sits at the top with 49 points. However, Inter (47) is hot on their heels and you can never count on nine-time defending champion Juventus (42). Getting the full three points here is somewhat of a must and certainly achievable considering Milan won the reverse fixture 3-0 back in October and has a much better record away than Spezia does at home. 

When I called Spezia “surprising” earlier in the analysis, I was referring to the fact that most considered the Serie A first timers a lock for relegation at the start of the season. But here they are sitting 16th and several points clear of the bottom three. They defeated Sassuolo 2-1 last week, a side in the top half of the table, so Milan must be “on guard” Saturday. But before that win, Spezia had been winless in their last three Serie A competitions, twice failing to score a single goal. While they’ve had some shocking victories this season, only once have they won at home. 

After exiting the Coppa Italia in the quarterfinals and losing 3-0 at home to Atalanta, AC Milan has bounced back with two straight victories. Last week it was a convincing 4-0 clean sheet against last place Crotone. No side has been better on the road this year as Milan has nine wins and one draw in 10 away fixtures and they are now on a 17-match unbeaten run away from Stadio Giuseppe Meazza dating back to last season. With a tough upcoming schedule, there will be a clear focus here on gaining the full three points. 6* AC Milan

9* Over Western Carolina/Furman (2:00 ET): Both of these sides have gone Under in six straight games. Those respective six-game streaks include one head to head matchup, which Furman won 75-69 back on January 30th. Since then, the Paladins have actually dropped two of three and Wednesday saw them score a season-low 58 points in a loss to UNC Greensboro where they shot just 31.6% from the field. Look for them to rediscover the “shooting touch” though as today they are back at home where they are averaging 86.1 PPG! 

Western Carolina is at the bottom of the SoCon standings, but ironically the Catamounts are off a win here. They defeated VMI 74-72 in what was the team’s best single-game defensive effort in awhile. Still though, they’ve allowed 70 or more points in 15 of the last 16 games and are giving up 77.7 PPG for the season. On the road, that number jumps to 81.8 PPG. On the bright side, Western Carolina is averaging MORE points per game on the road (77.2) than at home.

In the first meeting, the total closed at 154. It’s several points lower here, opening up some real value. This looks like it will end up as the lowest O/U line for a Western Carolina game in some time, perhaps as far back as December 30th. Their games are averaging 153.9 PPG this season while Furman games average 148.3. The Paladins shoot a blistering 52.3% from the field at home as well. I fully expect them to score 80+ today and if that happens, it should make for an easy Over. 9* Over Western Carolina/Furman

8* Loyola Chicago (12:00 ET): Here’s a matchup I’ve been DYING to see all season in the Missouri Valley. Drake has just one loss this year and it came last weekend, 74-57 at Valparaiso. The Bulldogs have since bounced back with a convincing 80-59 triumph at the expense of Northern Iowa. That improved their record to not only 19-1 SU, but also 15-3 ATS. Both marks are obviously among the very best in the country. But make no mistake about it. Drake is NOT the best team in the MVC this season. That would be their opponents on Saturday.

Loyola Chicago, a name you probably recall from an epic Final Four run three years ago, leads the MVC with a 12-1 SU record. They are 17-3 SU overall and no slouch in the ATS department either at 12-5-1. The Ramblers were even more profitable prior to going 0-2 ATS vs. Evansville last week, though both games were still double digit wins at home. This is very much a Top 25 team (in the country) in my eyes and I expect them to show it Saturday. It speaks volumes that they are favored here.

Loyola sports a top eight defensive efficiency rating. They are allowing only 56.2 PPG on the year, which is #1 in the entire country! Yes, this is probably the best “mid-major” in America (assuming you’ve upgraded Gonzaga from that distinction at this point). They have won 10 straight, nine of those coming by double digits. Drake had numerous close calls prior to its blowout loss at Valpo last week. This is the first time all year that they will be an underdog, but again the oddsmakers have taken a definite “position” on this matchup and so am I. 8* Loyola Chicago

10* Torino (9:00 AM ET): Believe it or not, Torino has not won at home since last summer! Then again, maybe that should not be all that surprising as the Granada have just two wins this entire Serie A campaign. But there have been recent signs of improvement on the pitch, namely last week’s thrilling 3-3 draw with Atalanta which saw Torino battle back from a three-goal deficit. It was their fourth consecutive draw in Serie A and fifth across all competitions. That run of points has allowed them to escape the relegation zone, albeit barely, as they are now 17th in the table and one point clear. 

Genoa has engineered a more shocking turnaround as they’ve climbed from the depths of Serie A to a respectable 12th in the table. They’ve done so by winning four of their previous five matches, including 2-1 over Napoli last weekend. A change in coaching and top goalscorer Mattia Destro getting hot have been the primary reasons for this turnaround, but I’ve also got to point to the fact they’ve mostly been beating the bottom teams in the league, such as Crotone, Cagliari and Bologna, two of which currently occupy spots in the relegation zone. For the record, Genoa has not won four straight Serie A matches since 2009. 

Torino’s last home victory, ironically enough, came against Genoa by a score of 3-0. While I don’t think it will be that lopsided this time around, I do expect the home side to pick up the three points here. In some more irony, current boss Davide Nicola was the coach for Genoa back then. He, like counterpart Davide Ballardini, has led a bit of a turnaround and certainly last week’s result should have the players “smelling victory.” They’ve had Genoa’s number the last few seasons with a 7-match unbeaten run that has seen them outscore the Ligurians 11-3. Today will be Torino’s day to win at home - finally. 10* Torino

10* Over Bucks/Jazz (9:05 ET): It’s a shame this game ISN’T on ESPN Friday night as we’ve got the team with the best record in the league (Utah) facing the team I feel is still the best in the Eastern Conference (Milwaukee). The Jazz have won 16 of their last 17 games and are very much “for real” as they possess the NBA’s best net efficiency rating. Their record shouldn’t be that surprising, considering the fact they’ve been favored in all but two of their 25 games this season.

Now Milwaukee can claim to have the league’s point differential. They’ve outscored the opposition by nearly 10 PPG this season. That tells me they are very likely to eventually overtake the Sixers for the top spot in the East as I firmly believe scoring differential to be a strong indicator of future outcomes. The Bucks are off a loss though, 125-124 at Phoenix Wednesday, a game in which they blew a 16-point lead. This will mark the first time all season that they have been an underdog.

We’ve got two of the top four efficient offenses meeting here on Friday night, so expect plenty of points. The Bucks have scored 123 or more points in six consecutive games and no, there’s been no overtime during that stretch. Of course, they are averaging 121.4 PPG for the season. Utah’s defense has been really good, especially at home, but containing the Bucks can prove problematic. The Jazz have scored at least 112 in seven of their last eight games. When the teams met in Milwaukee last month, it was a 131-118 Jazz victory and the shooting (on both sides) wasn’t all that great. The Bucks are 4-0 Over on the road when the total is 230 or higher. 10* Over Bucks/Jazz

10* Detroit Mercy (9:00 ET): If you’ve been regularly betting Cleveland State this season, then “my hats off to you.” The Vikings are 14-3 ATS, which is the best cover percentage in the country among teams that have played at least 13 games. They lead the Horizon League, which is a shocker as they were tabbed for 7th in the preseason poll. Per KenPom they’ve had the best “luck” in the entire country as five of their wins have been by three points or less. One of them was last Saturday vs. Oakland, 80-78. 

The Horizon League schedule calls for B2B games every weekend against the same opponent. Cleveland State has not lost the first game of any of these “doubleheaders” all season. But what is truly remarkable about the Vikings is how they have a negative scoring differential over the course of the season, despite being 14-5 SU! That’s largely owed to a pair of blowout losses: 85-49 at Wright State on Jan 16th and 101-46 at Ohio on Dec 6th. In that loss to Ohio, CSU was on the wrong end of a historic40-0 scoring run, spanning halftime, to set a NCAA record. They missed 17 consecutive shots at one point and went nearly 15 mins in the 2nd half w/o making a single basket! 

Detroit is the opponent Friday (and Saturday) and the Titans come in on their own 5-game ATS win streak. They’ve also won all five straight up. While only 8-8 SU on the year, the Titans can claim something Cleveland State can’t and that’s a positive YTD scoring differential. They are 6-1 ATS in road games and are coming off a 27-point win (over Purdue-Fort Wayne). This is a double revenge game. Bottom line is Cleveland State is “due” to lose. Take the points. 10* Detroit Mercy

8* Dallas (7:35 ET): The Pelicans and Mavericks meet for the first time this season with the latter on a three-game win streak. The former had won four in a row before losing Wednesday night in Chicago, 129-116 as a 2.5-point favorite. They allowed the Bulls to hit a franchise record 25 three-pointers! While New Orleans had gone 4-0 ATS (as well as 4-0 SU) before that loss, Dallas has not been good at covering spreads (to say the least!) recently as they are just 1-10 ATS L11 games. 

But I still believe in the Mavs and think they are set to make a move into playoff position in the Western Conference. Despite the ATS woes, they’ve won four of their last five games straight up, including 118-117 over Atlanta Weds night as they overcame a 13-point second half deficit. Defensively, they put the clamps on the Hawks down the stretch, holding them to 9 of 22 shooting in the 4Q. The Pelicans are a team that they handled last season, winning all four times and going 3-1 ATS. The L5 games have seen the Mavs average 123.4 PPG. 

New Orleans, like Dallas, is near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency. Unlike the Mavericks, the Pelicans have shown no signs of being able to turn that around. Not only were they just scorched by the Bulls, there have been eight games this season where a Pelicans’ opponent has made at least 18 three-pointers. They gave up TWO 40-point quarters to the Bulls, who are not exactly one of the league’s premier offensive teams. The Pelicans are just 4-8 SU on the road this year. 8* Dallas

6* Celta de Vigo (3:00 ET): Something is going to have to give on Friday as Celta de Vigo, who has not won a La Liga match since the end of December, hosts an Elche side whose winless run in the Spanish top flight dates back to October 23rd! On the bright side, both clubs earned “hard-fought” draws last week against opponents that are in the top six of the table. Despite the respective forms somewhat mirroring each other, you’ll notice Celta de Vigo is a prohibitive favorite on home soil and I heartily agree with the oddsmakers’ assessment. 

The truth is that Celta de Vigo is in a much better position than Elche and their draw last week was a lot more impressive. While the equalizer did not come until the 89th minute, the fact they were able to even gain a point facing table leaders Atletico Madrid was a bit of a shocker. After all, Atletico came into the fixture having won 16 of its 19 La Liga matches this season and had conceded only 10 goals. That Celta scored twice on them deserves substantial praise. They are now 10th in the table with 26 points. 

Elche had a shocking comeback last week as they trailed Villarreal 2-0 at halftime, only to score twice in the second half to share the points. Still, Elche is 19th in the table and has won only three times in 20 matches this season. Next week’s clash with Eibar presents an opportunity to escape the relegation zone, but I am far more pessimistic about their chances here as Vigo will be looking to atone for a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture back in November. Los Celestes have drawn in each of the last three matches and are desperate for the three points here. It’s among the best chances for victory they’ve had in a while. 6* Celta de Vigo

10* UCLA (11:00 ET): UCLA just suffered its second loss in the last three games and it came in humiliating fashion at the hands of rival USC, 66-48 as 5-point dogs. It was also the fifth consecutive game the Bruins failed to cover. They also lost 73-72 at Stanford. Prior to that, they’d been 8-0 vs. the rest of the Pac 12. Reeling a bit (for the first time all season), I expect UCLA to come out strong Thursday night in Pullman. It was a 30-point win the first time they faced Washington State this year and that was less than a month ago. This number certainly appears to be a bit short.

Wazzu is off four straight road games. They went 2-2 SU, 3-0-1 ATS and lost the last one 68-66 at Oregon State. Very different from UCLA, the Cougars’ run in Pac 12 play did NOT get off to a good start as they went just 2-7 SU the L9. I wonder just how they’ll do here after playing 8 of their last 10 games on the road. The Cougars are not a particularly good shooting team and were held below 40% in Corvallis on Saturday. Other than a win over short-handed Oregon, the Cougs have not beaten any of the top teams in the Pac 12.

UCLA simply blitzed Wazzu in the first meeting, taking a 16-point halftime lead and shooting 54.1% for the game. I know Mick Cronin’s team has been playing a bit short-handed of late, but I see this as a great “buy low” opportunity. This may not be as lopsided as it ended up being in Westwood last month, but it doesn’t have to be with this short number. The Bruins are 8-1 ATS after a game where they scored 50 points or fewer. Their overall shooting is certainly set to improve. 10* UCLA 

8* Eastern Kentucky (9:00 ET): I was a little shocked by this line. Now, if you’ve been following along, then you know I’ve been targeting Belmont for awhile. At 14-0 vs. the rest of the Ohio Valley, the Bruins are the ONLY team in the country (besides Gonzaga and Baylor) to be 9-0 or better in conference play. But with a poor defensive efficiency rating (171st in the country), I’ve got my doubts. They’re coming off a four-game road trip here and easily could have lost two of the games (Austin Peay, Murray State). 

Eastern Kentucky probably isn’t the second best team in the OVC, but they are close. The Colonels are 15-4 SU overall and 9-3 in conference play. Two of those three conference losses occurred earlier in the month (Austin Peay, Murray State) and both were at home, But they’ve since bounced back with a 78-74 win at SIU Edwardsville on Monday. It was a double-digit advantage in the second half and they withstood some hot SIU Edwardsville shooting (50% from 3-pt range). Unlike most of the OVC, Eastern Kentucky has the capability to “trade points” with Belmont. 

In fact, the Colonels play at the fourth fastest tempo in the entire country and average 82.6 PPG. They are 3-1 ATS as a dog this season. This is their first time facing Belmont this season. The Bruins have won 17 in a row overall and have beaten Eastern Kentucky 10 straight times. But I don’t think they’re going to win out. Might they lose outright here? Not that confident, but I will take the points as EKU is 22-8-2 ATS its L32 games overall. 8* Eastern Kentucky

10* Under Raptors/Celtics (7:35 ET): Toronto put 137 points on the board last night. It was their fifth consecutive game topping 120 and 7th in a row to go Over the total. But they were also facing the Wizards, who are as inept defensively as any team in this league. Tonight, on no rest, the Raptors must head into Boston. The Celtics should force this into being a lower-scoring game as they are allowing the second fewest number of points per game in the Eastern Conference right now. I’m going Under here.

Boston enters this game off a loss as they were beaten 122-108 by the red hot Jazz Tuesday night. That was the end of a disappointing 2-3 “West Coast” swing for the Celtics as they had no answers down the stretch. Utah, who has the best record in the league, ended the game on a 14-4 run. It was the most points given up by the Celtics in any game since 1/22 and just the fifth time all season that they allowed 120 or more. The good news (for us) is that the Under has gone 16-5-1 in Celtics’ games when the team is coming off a road trip of at least 7 days. 

This looks to be one of the highest O/U lines for any Celtics game this season. Previous to this, only three of their home games have had a total of 220 or higher. That makes sense given Toronto’s recent offensive numbers, but the Raptors aren’t going to make 19 three-pointers again as they did last night. They’ve faced some BAD defensive teams lately, which partly explains the rash of Overs we’ve seen from their games. It ends here. 10* Under Raptors/Celtics