10* Indiana (8:00 ET): Is it really time for conference play to begin? The Big 10 got an early jump with conference games starting over the weekend and has three more games on tonight's schedule, including this one in Bloomington where mediocre Indiana hosts mediocre Iowa. Both squads enter at 4-4 SU having dropped their respective Big 10 openers. For Indiana, they were in a terrible spot (coming off the Duke game) and lost at Michigan 69-55 (as 7.5-point dogs). Iowa lost at home, by four, to Penn State. Overall, the Hawkeyes have now dropped four of five including losses as favorites to LA Lafayette and South Dakota State. That makes it pretty tough to like their chances tonight in Assembly Hall where the Hoosiers are looking to snap their own two-game losing streak. Lay the short number.

Indiana drew the "short straw" in the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge having to play #1 Duke. Sharp action might have been on them, but IU failed to cover the closing number (+9), losing 91-81. The Hoosiers played the Blue Devils tough as there were 11 ties and 10 lead changes in the first half alone. But a 17-4 Duke run in the 2H sealed the game. It certainly didn't help that the Hoosiers shot only 16 of 26 from the FT line and 5 of 21 from three-point range. But then, Archie Miller's team saw its streak of three consecutive games w/ 80+ points end Saturday in Ann Arbor as they shot just 40% from the field and fell into an early hold too deep to climb out of. Oddly, IU attempted only ONE three-pointer in the entire 1H. Bottom line is that I expect them to shoot much better at home.

Iowa is in far more "dire straits" than Indiana right now though. For the first time since '01, they lost at Carver-Hawkeye to Penn State, 77-73 on Saturday. Maybe, we shouldn't be all that surprised, however. The Hawkeyes were four-point underdogs in the game and as noted above, lost to both LA Lafayette and South Dakota State already. Their first "true" road game was a complete disaster as they were blown out by 24 at Virginia Tech. Still though, Iowa never led against Penn State and turned the ball over 18 times. Not good signs for this game. Nor is the fact they made only four three-pointers in their loss to the Nittany Lions. I think the three-point line will be the difference again in this one and w/ Iowa giving up over 80 PPG its last five contests, Indiana's offense gets back on track. 10* Indiana

10* Over Bucks/Celtics (7:35 ET): These two teams were both expected to be near the top of the Eastern Conference this season, but while the Celtics have exceeded expectations thus far, the Bucks have clearly fallen below them. That being said, Milwaukee does come into this game riding a three-game win streak. However, be aware that two of those victories came at Sacramento's expense. Boston, who has the distinction of owning both the league's top SU and ATS mark (at 20-4, 18-5-1 respectively) has won its last two games and punched a ticket for me (Over) in their last game, a 116-111 win over Phoenix. That's the way I'm going here as well. Take the Over. 

Though they continue to lead the league in defense (both points allowed and efficiency), the Celtics have seen their offense come alive in recent weeks. They've averaged an impressive 111.6 points over their last five games, scoring at least 108 in every game. For that Phoenix game, I spoke of how the Suns' fast tempo was likely to create an environment conducive for an Over. That's exactly how things played out w/ the Suns attempting roughly 17 more shots than the Celtics' typically face per game. Milwaukee's pace is far more deliberate, but it also helps that Boston is shooting the ball lights out recently w/ four straight games above 50% from the field. Bottom line is I expect a much more high scoring affair than we saw the last time these teams met, where the result was a 96-89 Boston win last month in Milwaukee. 

Interestingly, Bucks' road games are typically far more high scoring than their home games. We see an average of 212.3 points total scored in their road games, compared to just 201.4 at home. Like Boston, they've seen a fairly substantial increase in scoring recently as they've averaged 109 pts over the L5 games while shooting the ball at a 50.1% clip. Four of those last five games have gone Over the total. Meanwhile, seven of the Celtics' last eight games have gone Over. The Bucks are 8-3 SU since acquiring PG Eric Bledsoe, making them a much different team now than they were last month when they faced Boston twice. I already mentioned that the last meeting was low-scoring, but the first matchup (here in Boston) was a 108-100 final, actually won by the Bucks, as they drew the C's one-night removed from the Gordon Hayward injury and a tough loss in Cleveland. (Boston is 20-2 SU since that game!). This is a low total for a game between two teams that have both been shooting the ball well recently. 10* Over Bucks/Celtics

8* Over Sharks/Capitals (7:05 ET): Given where each finished last season, it's fair to say both the Sharks and Caps have been early seasons disappointments. San Jose has turned things around recently though by winning three of its last four games, though they lost the last one. Tonight marks the end of a four-game trip (out East) for them. Similarly, Washington has turned it around lately. They've won four of five and just picked up a huge win over first place Columbus. Though still in fifth place of the Metro, they are only four points back of first place. So perhaps things are not as dire as they may seem in the Nation's capital. The Over has also cashed in each of the Caps' three previous games and that's the way I'm betting this one. 

Now, San Jose has been a team for the Under bettors. Not only do they rank 29th in the league in goals scored, but they are also 2nd in goals allowed. The result of that combination is an 18-6-1 Under record, easily making them the top Under team in the sport. Nine of their last 11 games have stayed Under the total. But there are some signs that trend may start to change. For starters, they just gave up five goals in the loss to Tampa Bay Saturday night. (That game did go Over). They also continue to a very high number of shots on goal. It's been 83 total in the L2 games alone, so the superb goaltending we've seen so far from both Aaron Dell and Martin Jones may not continue to last. The Sharks have also scored multiple goals themselves in seven consecutive games. 

The Caps are not scoring as much as they have in recent seasons, but did not four goals in the win over Columbus on Saturday and have scored three or more goals in four of their last five games. They are in the midst of a brutal stretch of scheduling that has seen them play the Lightning, Leafs, Kings and Blue Jackets. After this game, they host the Blackhawks. San Jose has had a strange amount of success through the years against Washington, winning 26 of the past 31 matchups, including 13 of 16 here in D.C. The Caps are 9-4 Over when facing an opponent with a winning record this season, so look for more scoring than expected here. 8* Over Sharks/Capitals

8* Seattle (8:25 ET): This line hit its high point mid-week and I immediately jumped on it as even in a "down year," Russell Wilson and the Seahawks are still a force to be reckoned with at home. This is a VERY rare instance of them getting points here and Wilson is 3-0 ATS all-time as a home dog, winning all three times straight up! Overall, Wilson is 14-7-1 ATS as a dog of any kind in his pro career. Furthermore, the Seahawks have been leading or within one possession of the lead in all but TWO of their previous 115 regular season contests! Think there's value now? I realize that the Eagles are "flying high" (pardon the pun) this year and everyone wants to bet them, but the market has now shifted too far with them. Take the points and I give Seattle a great shot at the outright upset.

Philadelphia absolutely annihilated the Chicago Bears last week, winning 31-3 w/ a massive 420-140 edge in total yards (24-8 in first downs). That win puts them in rarified company as one of only NINE teams (Since 1989!) to post four consecutive victories by 20 points or more. The previous eight teams, not surprisingly, did NOT fare well their next time out, posting an ATS record of just 2-6. This makes sense as oddsmakers will begin to attach a much higher price on a team after they consistently cover. The Eagles have now covered EIGHT consecutive games, but those four straight 20+ pt wins came against the 49ers, Broncos, Cowboys (no Elliott) and Bears. None of those are likely playoff teams and three of them are going to be picking very high in next year's Draft. Truth be told, the Eagles have played a VERY easy schedule to this point. The only team they beat that I'd consider a "lock" for the playoffs was Carolina and that was a five-point game. 

Seattle's four losses this year have been by a COMBINED 20 points. Shockingly, they have lost their last two home games. One was to Washington, but they actually held a commanding 437-244 edge in total yards in that game. Then there was the Monday nighter vs. Atlanta, their first game w/o Richard Sherman. (They also finished w/ the edge in total yds in that one!). Despite being 3-2 SU at home, the Seahawks are outgaining opponents by nearly 100 YPG here. Wilson is actually having just as good a year as Wentz (check the stats). Plus, under Pete Carroll, the team is 13-2 SU in home night games. You won't get a better price on the Seahawks at home as long as the current regime remains. Take the points. 8* Seattle

10* Over Clippers/T'wolves (7:05 ET): The immediate future of these two franchises are very different. The Clippers, perennial playoff participants the last several years, are sinking fast thanks to a multitude of injuries, not to mention Chris Paul's departure in the offseason. One would hope that Saturday represents "rock bottom" as the team fell - by 26 points - to the lowly Mavericks. Were it not for a 4-0 SU start, things would be even bleaker as the Clips have dropped 13 of 17 overall. Tonight, they face a Minnesota team that's on an upward trajectory in the front end of a "home and home." The T'wolves' numbers aren't all that impressive, but the key is they've been far "luckier" in close games, which is the reason for the improvement in the won-loss record. I'm looking for a high-scoring game on Sunday between these two.

It should be noted that the Clippers have just three wins (came in all in a row) in their last 14 games overall and they came at the expense of the Hawks, Kings and Lakers and two of those were by three points or less. Since then, they've been blowout twice, first by Utah (by 19 at home) and then yday in Dallas. Saturday saw them shoot a woeful 34.7% overall from the field, a percentage which almost HAS to increase tonight. Note that, for the most part, this team has shot well recently as they're still at 48.1% overall the L5 games, even including yday. The only other time they were held below 85 pts this year, they came back to score 116 the following game. The Over is also 4-0 the L3 seasons when the Clips are a road underdog of 12.5 points or more. 

Minnesota is off a loss too; though theirs was far more excusable as it came at OKC, 111-107 as five-point underdogs. That was after they dropped 120 in an impressive road win over the Pelicans. So it's been back to back Overs for the T'wolves, who are also getting healthier w/ PG Jeff Teague now back in the lineup. If there is one issue w/ Minnesota, and this is uncharactertistic of a Tom Thibodeau coached team, it's that they're still not very good defensively. They give up over 107 points per game and rank 23rd in efficiency. Fortunately for them though, they're facing an opponent that's giving up 109.4 PPG its last five. Like I said, expect a good old fashioned shootout in this one. 10* Over Clippers/T'wolves

8* Winnipeg (7:05 ET): Thanks to St. Louis' recent struggles (three straight losses), the Jets are now tied for first place in what is shaping up to be a very tough Central Division. While they let me down in an OT loss to Colorado Wednesday, Winnipeg made it up to me by scoring seven goals Friday in a win over Vegas where I had the Over. They've now won 8 of 11 overall and tonight will host an Ottawa team that is not only hails from the opposite end of the country, but also the opposite end of the current NHL spectrum. The Sens have dropped seven of eight, though that lone win did come in their last game, 6-5 over the Islanders. Ottawa does have the most OT/shootout losses in the league so far (6), indicating poor luck, but their last five losses all came in regulation and saw them get held to two goals or fewer. That's simply not good enough facing tonight's opponent. 

As I've noted previously this week, Winnipeg is both a top seven teams in goals scored and allowed. That puts them right near the top of my own power rankings (currently 3rd!). Lately, they've done an excellent job at outshooting the opposition, doing so in each of the last five games. They scored three times on the power play Friday against Vegas and now rank 3rd in the league when on the man advantage. They are 8-0-1 their last nine home games. Goalie Connor Hellebuyck comes in w/ a .923 save percentage on the year.

On the other hand, we have Ottawa. While optimism persists in Manitoba, Canada's capital city has every reason to be pessimissitic about its hockey future based on comments made by team captain Erik Karlsson, who earlier in the week said that he would NOT accept a "hometown discount" to stay with the team when his contract is up at the end of the season. Note the Sens' nine victories are 4th fewest in the league right now. They are 24th in goals allowed. The six goals scored Friday matched the same number that they had scored in the previous five games - combined. 8* Winnipeg

10* New Orleans (4:25 ET): The NFC South has emerged as the strongest division in the sport this year w/ three teams currently 7-4 SU or better (Tampa Bay the exception). The two teams meeting here are tied at 8-3 w/ the Saints holding the tiebreak due to an outright win in Carolina back in Week 3, 34-13, as five-point underdogs. That win totally transformed the Saints' season. Going into the game, they were 0-2, having been outscored 65-39 and giving up over 500 YPG. But something happened after upsetting the Panthers and it was on the defensive side of the ball. New Orleans would go on to win eight straight games, allowing 17 pts or less six times during that stretch. They did lose last week, 26-20 at Los Angeles, but IMO that's created some value here on them at home. Lay the points!

With New Orleans losing last week, Carolina is now the hottest team in the division as they're on a four-game win streak. However, three of those wins did come at the expense of Tampa Bay, Miami and the Jets, three teams that aren't going anywhere. I did have the Panthers LW vs. the Jets, but it was a fortunate cover due to a late FG and they were outgained 391-299. They also actually trailed early in the 4Q. While Carolina does have the slight edge defensively in this matchup, their offense averages about a full TD less per game compared to New Orleans. The Week 3 loss was one of five times this year that the Panthers' O failed to top 20 points.

Both teams come into this game a little banged up. New Orleans, on the defensive side of the ball, is really hurting - especially in the secondary. But CB Marcus Lattimore has not been ruled out for this game. However, perhaps the biggest absence for this matchup is now on the Carolina defense as DE Charles Johnson was suspended on Friday (4 games) for violating the league's substance abuse policy. The Panthers allow roughly 1.6 more rush yards per attempt w/ Johnson off the field, which is significant. As a reminder, they are getting ready to face Drew Brees in the Mercedes Benz Superdome. This year's Saints' offense can also run the ball a lot more effectively than past seasons, thanks to rookie Alvin Kamara. The Panthers offense is likely going to be w/o TE Greg Olsen and possibly RB Christian McCaffery. Though Carolina has been good as a dog this year, I think it's notable that New Orleans has won all seven games in which it has been a favorite, covering six times. This is a pretty short price on them at home. 10* New Orleans

10* Central Florida (2:00 ET): Saturday marked a bit of a bittersweet day on the campus of UCF. While the football team completed an unbeaten regular season (will go to Peach Bowl) w/ a thrilling, double OT win over Memphis, at the same time it was announced that HC Scott Frost will be departing for Nebraska (not a shock). The basketball program has far less fanfare in Orlando, but Sunday will do something that the football program would love to do and that's play Alabama. You have to wonder what the pointspread would be on the football field (my guess is it would be a little higher) if these two schools met. I'm not sure what I'd do in that hypothetical matchup, but here on the basketball court Sunday, I'll be taking the points. 

Now the Golden Knights arrive in Tuscaloosa (first "true" road game) on a three-game losing streak and in two of the losses they were held below 50 points. But at the same time, two of the losses were by three points and the competition was pretty fierce. They played West Virginia, St. John's and Missouri, all of whom rank in my top 50. The one blowout was at the hands of West Virginia, part of the Advocare Invitational (in Lake Buena Vista), the best of the lost and in that game UCF simply could not make a shot as they finished at 24.5% overall including just 1 of 12 from three-point range. Suffice to say, they probably won't have another shooting night that bad the rest of the season. Now, defensively, there are no issues here as the Golden Knights are holding their opponents to just 37.8% shooting for the year. Taking this many points, that's huge. 

Alabama has just the one loss, the now-infamous game vs. Minnesota where they were down to three players and still only lost by five. They bounced back Wednesday w/ a win over Louisiana Tech, but only by three as 11.5-pt favorites.  The big key here is that the Crimson Tide, a guard-oriented team, is going to have trouble stopping UCF's 7'6" monster Tacko Fall, who so far is averaging 11 points and 7 rebounds per game. Purportedly, the Tide will counter w/ Daniel Giddens, who normally does not see much playing time (only averages 2.4 pts, 2.0 rebounds in 11 minutes per game). Note that the Tide had to overcome a double digit deficit in the 2nd half just to beat La Tech earlier this week as they trailed by 11 w/ 14 minutes left. UCF is a desperate team w/ size and will be a very "tough out" Sunday afternoon. 10* Central Florida

8* Miami (1:00 ET): This is a battle of two teams that are sinking fast while being disasters at the betting window. Denver's 3-1 start is a distant memory as they had an early season bye and have since lost seven in a row, not covering a single time in the process. In fact, and this is downright shocking, they have been "in the money" (i.e. covering) for roughly only 6% of actual game time! Miami, whose fall from grace was fairly easy to predict, has taken a similar path. They were 4-2 SU at one point, but it was a fraudulent record to say the least, and they've now dropped five straight. Four of those losses have been by double digits. So something will have to give here and w/ QB Jay Cutler cleared, I believe it's the Dolphins in better position to take this relatively "meaningless" Week 13 matchup. 

Denver does not have a viable starting QB on its roster. They've tried three different options - Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch - and none of them have had any real success. After cycling through, it's back to Siemian this week. Siemian will have to get used to a new offensive coordinator here (Bill Musgrave) as when he started earlier in the season Mike McCoy (since fired) was the one calling plays. Compounding matters is the fact that Siemian is one of several Broncos that has contracted the flu this week. Broncos backers will continue to lean on the fact this team has outgained its opponents this season, but the defense is not what it was the L2 years and the offense just can't score points. Only once in the last seven games has Denver topped 20 points and it was in a 51-23 loss to the Eagles. They average 14.4 PPG on the road.

Miami has an even worse offense, but at least their scoring average jumps to 22.4 PPG at home and they have Cutler w/ a better array of weapons. Cutler is facing a former team here, so he should be motivated. For what it's worth, the Dolphins are a respectable 4-5 SU when Cutler starts. Getting back to Denver's defensive decline, they now rank 28th in the league in points allowed. They are also now w/o their top defensive back, Aqib Talib, due to a suspension (for fighting Raiders' WR Michael Crabtree). I just can't see why this line has "flipped" during the week (Denver now favored) as the Broncos are 0-5 SU/ATS this season on the road. 8* Miami

8* Kansas City (1:00 ET): Not sure Chiefs' stock could be any lower than it is right now following B2B outright losses as big favorites, to the Giants and Bills. Well, it would sink lower if the team falls victim to the "New York trifecta" this week and loses outright to the Jets. Shockingly, money is in on the J-E-T-S even as short home dogs here. I understand why as KC appears to be falling apart at the seams. What was once an insurmountable lead in the AFC West (team started 5-0) has now been trimmed to just one game as they've lost five of six overall. But these are the Jets they're playing, a team I successfully targeted last week w/ the Panthers and walked away w/ the cover. With all their recent struggles, KC is laying a shorter number and I think there's value here. 

Facing a Bills team that had given up a total of 135 pts the previous three weeks, KC was shockingly out-first downed 13-1 in the 1H last week. This Chiefs' offense has been a disaster the L3 weeks, scoring just 36 points total and the cries for Patrick Mahomes to replace Alex Smituh have grown louder. It is stunning to look back at how Smith was being considered an MVP contender back when the team was 5-0 w/ wins over the Patriots and Eagles. I reiterate that this is an extreme "buy low" situation. The Chiefs are 8-2 ATS the L3 seasons as a road favorite of three points or less. Also, teams off an outright loss as DD favorites have come back to cover at roughly a 66% clip the following week since '05. Yes, I know the Chiefs were in this exact same spot LW (coming off the loss to the Giants), but can lightning really strike twice? 

I look for KC to run the ball effectively here against a Jets' run defense that is nowhere near what it once was. Last week, the Jets allowed 145 yds rushing to Carolina. I'd like to see the Chiefs recommit to the run game after attempting just 19 rushes in two of the last three games. The Jets' offense remains inept as long as Josh McCown is the QB. Note that while KC is +31 in 4th quarter point differential, the Jets are -73. Even w/ the offensive slump, the Cheifs are still 7th in the league in scoring. The Jets are 20th. By the way, the Jets have also lost five of their last six games including losses to Miami and Tampa Bay. Unlike KC, they have no 5-0 start to lean on. 8* Kansas City

8* Calgary (10:05 ET): The Battle of Alberta is renewed for just the 2nd time this season and to say we're looking at a much different situation than what was expected would be putting it mildly. Especially if you juxtapose the Flames and Oilers' respective positions currently with not just preseason predictions, but also the fact that Edmonton started out the season w/ a 3-0 blanking of Calgary on Opening Night (45-27 edge in shots). However, the Oilers have been the league's biggest disappointment so far this season (something I was "worried about" coming into 2017-18 after they made the huge jump from 70 to 103 points last season. Their 22 points are tied for fourth fewest in the league right now and this is a big-time revenge spot for the Flames, who were also swept in the season series last year. I'm on them.

Calgary comes in off a 3-0 shutout of Arizona Thursday night. The 'Yotes are one of the few teams w/ fewer points than the Oilers right now, but it's still a very good sign the Flames shut them out. That's because they won after their only other shutout this season, back on 10.11 against the Kings. They're 7-2 SU the L3 seasons in this situaton, that being off a shutout win. The Flames' numbers are decidedly mediocre this year, but that's a level the Oilers would "kill" to be at right now (more on them in a moment). Plus, better things could be on the horizon for Calgary thanks to Mark Jankowski being called up. In just his 17th game as a pro, Jankowski scored twice Thursday night as the Flames outshot the Coyotes 44-28. The likely starter in goal for the Flames, Mike Smith, has been hot of late w/ a .935 save percentage his L4 starts, including the shutout. 

Meanwhile, this season is quickly deteriorating into disaster for Edmonton. Early on, it was downright shocking how little they were scoring. Just to illustrate how bad the offense was they have risen to 24th in the league in goals per game thanks to 18 goals scored in the L5 games. But it is the other side of the ledger that has become the bigger issue as they are 29th in goals allowed per game and 31st (last) on the penalty kill. Last night's 6-4 loss to Toronto just may have taken the cake for worst loss of the season as an own goal broke a 4-4 tie late in the third period and then the Maple Leafs added an empty netter. #1 goalie Cam Talbot remains out, so Laurent Brossoit is going to have to go B2B nights and his save percentage his L4 starts is .884. This is a GREAT spot for the Flames to snap their five-game losing streak against their rival. 8* Calgary

10* Ohio State (8:00 ET): Wisconsin is unbeaten and in "pole position" (currently #4) to make the College Football Playoff, but Ohio State is the betting favorite here and for good reason. I've said this before - and it bears repeating - that the Buckeyes would likely be favored over every team in America (on a neutral field) besides Alabama. The Big 10 Championship Game is played at a neutral site (Indianapolis), so the line is no surprise to me whatsoever. Now the underdog is a perfect 6-0 ATS all-time in this game, but the situation here is a little unique in that it's the DOG attracting the far higher ticket count. Yet, despite that, we saw the line continue to rise early in the week. That's typically a tell-tale sign that "sharper" dollars are on the favorite and that's who I'm rolling w/ Sat night.

The big news out of Columbus this week is that QB JT Barrett will play Saturday, despite having had surgery (on his knee) Sunday. The knee was apparently injured by an unknown cameraman on the sidelines of the Michigan game. The Buckeyes still were able to beat their rival, mind you, despite being w/o Barrett for a significant portion of the game and spotting the Wolverines a 14-0 lead. I'll note that, by the numbers, Ohio State was - by far - the best team in the Big 10 in the regular season. They outgained conference foes by a whopping 254 YPG (nearly 2:1 margin), outscoring them by 26.4 PPG. All you need to know is that they were favored by double digits at Michigan while Wisconsin was just a touchdown favorite over the Wolverines - in Madison. 

It is absolutely okay to question Wisconsin's schedule. Their best win may or may not be Florida Atlantic. If not the Owls, then it would be Northwestern and that too was an early season affair. They caught Iowa the week after the Hawkeyes stunned the Buckeyes and that game was in Madison. So was Michigan, and they were down in the 2nd half before Wolverines' QB Brandon Peters was knocked out. Badgers fans will want to point to how "strong" their team is in trenches, but Ohio State is actually stronger across both the offensive and defensive lines. Undefeated teams in November/December the L4 seasons are just 42% ATS across College Football. Worse yet for Wisconsin is Urban Meyer's 30-17-1 ATS record vs. ranked opponents. This won't be the 59-0 massacre that the Buckeyes laid on the Badgers three years ago, but OSU will win comfortably. 10* Ohio State

8* Fresno State (7:45 ET): Of all the Conference Championship Games on Saturday, the matchup in the Mountain West just might be the oddest. Like most, it's a regular season rematch. But where this one differs is the intial matchup took place just last week and the teams had NOTHING to play for. Fresno State won 28-17 (as 6.5-pt dogs), but that was at home and it was pretty clear they were the ones taking the game far more seriously. Those expecting Boise to bounce back have to be delighted at the line for Saturday night's rematch on the "Smurf Turf," but there's also an inherent danger in simply expecting the Broncos to "turn it on" here. Note that FSU was just as dominant, if not moreso, in MWC play this year. I'll take the points. 

Really, the fact that Fresno State is even in this game is pretty remarkable. The Bulldogs were 1-11 SU in 2016 and while most metrics were "pointing up" for this year, you still must tip your cap to the job done here by HC Jeff Tedford (remember him?) in year one. Tedford did inherit 16 returning starters, 10 of them on the offensive side of the ball, which is his speciality. However, it has been the defense that has really impressed. This group ranks 12th in the nation, allowing just 17.3 points per game. That is stunning turnaround in one year's time as LY, the Bulldogs allowed 30.9 PPG. They are especially stout against the run, allowing just 117.3 YPG. Last week, they held Boise State to just 3.5 yards per carry and 107 yds total over land. 

Fresno State outscored its Mt West foes by an average of 14.5 PPG this year and outgained them by over 100 yards per game. Boise State's MOV in conference play was identical, but they outgained Mt West opponents "only" by 84.9 YPG. The fact that Fresno State allowed only 13.1 PPG in league play is impressive, no matter how you slice it, and leads me to believe it's going to be a low-scoring affair Sat night. Only once - in an upset loss to UNLV - have the Bulldogs surrendered more than 21 pts to a MWC opponent this year. That makes taking the points seem like a "slam dunk" to me. FSU has defied the oddsmakers all year long (9-2-1 ATS) in taking a division that most thought should simply be handed to San Diego State at the start of the year. And so much for homefield advantage; Boise State is just 4-13 ATS its L17 home games. Take the points. 8* Fresno State

10* Kansas (5:30 ET): It's still (very) early in the season, but for my money, Kansas is the #1 team in the country. Currently, they are ranked #2, so the pollsters aren't too far off. However, I can't say the same for the oddsmakers in the spot as they have the Jayhawks favored by NOT nearly enough in a matchup w/ Syracuse down in Miami, a battle of 6-0 teams. However, as we know, "not all unbeatens are created equal" and in this instance we have an underdog that hasn't really played anybody or even had to leave the Carrier Dome (this early season philosophy has long been a hallmark under Jim Boeheim). I do NOT anticipate a repeat of the '03 NCAA Championship Game when a Carmello Anthony-led Syracuse team beat Kansas. Lay the points in this spot. 

Kansas' schedule hasn't exactly been a "murderer's row," but they did leave Lawrence once to beat Kentucky (Champions Classic) in the second game of the year. There were some struggles offensively in that game (only scored 65 pts) and perhaps there is some concern here going against Syracuse's trademark zone defense. But the Jayhawks are simply too talented. Thanks to averaging 94.5 PPG overall, they own the nation's top scoring differential at +33.0 PPG. All five starters are currently averaging at least 13.5 PPG. Last time out, they blitzed Toledo w/ a 30-2 run in the first half, shooting 75% from the floor en route to a 96-58 win and cover. Other than Kentucky, no opponent has even come within 34 points of the Jayhawks this season. Yes, those opponents haven't been great, but destroying them in the fashion they have is a mark in Kansas' favor.

A key in this game will be three-point shooting. KU is making an astounding 45.2% of its shots from behind the arc while Syracuse is at a paltry 29.1%. Compounding this issue is the way each team defends the arc. Kansas' opponents are making just 30.3% of their 3-pt attempts while Syracuse opponents are making 34% of theirs. While Jayhawks' HC Bill Self is on the record as saying "any" of his five starters are capable of scoring 20+ (pts) on a given night, Boeheim has lamented his offense by saying "we need to start making some shots." What's been key for the Orange thus far is a massive edge in second-chance points, but that likely will not exist here against a bigger, longer opponent and given the disparity in three-point shooting, I just don't see any way Syracuse keeps this game close. 10* Kansas

8* Auburn (4:00 ET): Like many games on Conference Championship Weekend, it's a regular season rematch in the SEC w/ Auburn taking on Georgia. Much has changed since that first meeting down in Jordan-Hare, namely the Tigers are now the team in the driver's seat. It all started w/ them destroying UGA last month, 40-17 as a 2.5-pt home dog. Now they're a 2.5-point fave on a neutral field. That's justified though given how one-sided the regular season matchup was. Georgia isn't the only #1 team that Auburn has beaten over the last month as last week (also at home) they downed rival Alabama, 26-14 (+4.5) in the "Iron Bowl." Those anticipating any kind of letdown here should note that the Iron Bowl winner has gone a perfect 7-0 SU in SEC Title Games (5-2 ATS) since 2009. Auburn is too hot right now; lay it. 

Since losing to Auburn (only loss this year), UGA has rolled two opponents by a combined score of 80-20, but that was Kentucky and Georgia Tech. The 'Dawgs did beat one Top 10 team during the regular season, Notre Dame, but that was by just a point and doesn't look so impressive now w/ the Fighting Irish having since been blown out by Miami and Stanford. Remember that this team has a true frosh at QB as well. Even having played Auburn once, I'm not convinced the coaching staff can make the necessary adjustments along the offensive line given the discrepancy in personnel they face going against this Auburn defensive line. Georgia avoided two of the big boys in the SEC West (Alabama, LSU) and faced only three ranked teams all year. That matters. 

With their dominant defensive line likely to hold the Georgia offense in check, I'm not as worried about the potential absence of Auburn RB Kerryon Johnson (who went for 167 yds in the reg season matchup). Johnson is listed as probable anyway though and the Tigers have depth at the position. QB Jarrett Stidham continues to improve by the week and led the SEC w/ a 68.5 completion percentage. Three weeks ago, I said that this Auburn team could very well make a playoff run and right now there is no doubt that they are one of the four best teams in America. Looking at their two losses, one was close (early in the year) at Clemson (current #1) and the other saw them blow a 20-0 lead (at LSU). It won't be as lopsided as the first go-around, but the Tigers will win here and move on to the CFP. 8* Auburn

8* Over Suns/Celtics (1:05 ET): We know that Boston is #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and allows a league-low 96.8 PPG. But they should certainly "get theirs" here in a matchup w/ a team that allows the MOST points per game in the league (115.8), Phoenix. With the Suns also playing at the fastest tempo in the league, there should be no shortage of possessions in this game, lending itself to an Over. The Celtics have scored at least 108 pts in six of their last seven games and a six-game Over streak was snapped their last time out. Meanwhile, Phoenix is an incredible 20-3 Over the L3 seasons when playing w/ exactly two days rest, which they are here. That includes a perfect 4-0 mark this season. Take the Over.

The Suns are 6-2 Over their last eight games overall and just gave up 131 pts in their last game, to Detroit. They let the Pistons shoot a blistering 57.3% from the floor and trailed by as many as 36. The Pistons shot better than 62% in the 1H and had a 36-point 1st quarter. Again, none of this should come as much of a surprise as no team in the league is giving up more points per game or possession. This is their fourth road game in six nights and only twice in the last eight games have they given up fewer than 113 points. The two they did not both came against Chicago, the worst offensive team in the league. Games against the Eastern Conference are averaging over 225 PPG and that average would be even higher if you exclude the Bulls.

The Celtics are shooting at only 43.9% from the floor at home, a percentage that almost HAS to go up. Sure enough, over the last five games, the team is at 49.1% overall. They've been at 50% or better three straight games, the last two at home, scoring exactly 108 pts on all three occasions. Kyrie Irving has gone for 30+ points four times in the last five games, including a game-high 36 in a win over the 76ers Wednesday. More often that not, the Suns do top 100 points, largely due to the pace at which they play. This will be a higher scoring game than usual for Boston. 8* Over Suns/Celtics

8* Oklahoma (12:30 ET): Like many of the Conference Championship Games this weekend, this is a regular season rematch where the underdog is playing w/ revenge. In the case of TCU-Oklahoma, I played the Sooners in Norman back on November 11th when they were about a TD favorite. Now they are laying the same, only at a neutral setting. This might cause reasonable minds to believe the value is on the Horned Frogs here, but considering the ease w/ which OU disposed of them three weeks ago, I say "not so fast." It was a 533-424 edge in total yardage for the Sooners in the 38-20 win and take note they didn't even score in the second half. This offense is simply going to be too good again for TCU to keep up. Lay the points. 

Oklahoma is #1 in the country, averaging 594 yards per game. They are #4 in scoring at 45.3 points per game. I took the Over in their game last week, which won easily (cashed early 3rd quarter!), yet even I was amazed by how efficient the Sooners were there. Understand that they possessed the ball for less than 25 minutes of actual game time, yet ran up 646 total yards and 59 points! Once again, with the game out of hand, they didn't even bother scoring in the fourth quarter. They scored on each of their first NINE drives of the game, eight of those being touchdowns, and it could have been 9 for 9 if they didn't run out of time at the end of the first half (had to settle for a field goal). As good as TCU HC Gary Patterson is at coaching defense, I wouldn't want to be stepping in front of this OU offense right now. 

TCU's only regular season loss besides OU was to Iowa State, who also beat the Sooners. Don't get me wrong; I have a tremendous amt of respect for the Horned Frogs. I even had them as my top CFB win total this season (at Over 7.5), which cashed easily. The Over on their game last week was my top CFB play of the weekend as they put up 45 points on a downtrodden Baylor team. But, again, Oklahoma is just on a different level right now. They put up 62 points and over 700 total yards against Oklahoma State last month and that was in Stillwater. When facing an opponent that has a winning record, the Sooners are 17-1 SU and 15-3 ATS the L3 seasons. They are also 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. The TCU defense will also be w/o safety Nick Orr here - due to suspension - for the first half. By the time he returns, it could be too late for the Horned Frogs. Oklahoma ran for 200 yds in the first meeting, the most allowed in any game by the TCU defense all season. 8* Oklahoma

10* Over Golden Knights/Jets (8:05 ET): Two of the NHL's biggest "surprise" teams meet Friday in Manitoba with Winnipeg hosting Vegas. The expansion Golden Knights have certainly been the biggest surprise in the league as they remain "neck and neck" with the Kings for first place in the Pacific (currently two points back). Similarly, Winnipeg is "hot on the heels" of its division leader, trailing St. Louis by only a single point in the Central. But the Jets did let me down their last time out, losing an overtime affair at Colorado where I'd backed them. Vegas has proven itself to be undervalued too many times this season, so I don't dare fade them at this price. Instead, let's look at the total. In a battle of two top seven goal scoring teams, I feel the Over is a formality. 

In their short existence, the Golden Knights have never lost three consecutive games. They come into tonight off B2B losses though for a third time as they've lost to both Dallas and Minnesota this week. The Minnesota loss took place last night and was a road game. Note though, that the Knights are still doing a pretty good job at getting the puck on net. They had 65 shots in the two losses, but were 0 for 5 on the power play. However, in the five-game winning streak that preceded the B2B losses, the Knights scored four or more goals every time out. Where I am worried about this team moving forward though is between the pipes. Due to injuries, the team has already had to use six different netminders! Three are currently on the injury report, so it's unclear as to who will get the start tonight. Regardless, I'm not a fan of the options. 

Prior to losing at Colorado, the Jets hung seven goals in a dominant victory over the Wild Monday night. They rank 7th in the league in goals scored per game, but surprisingly, Vegas tops them at #4. It was a bit of an unlucky loss to the Avs Wednesday as the Jets had the edge in shots (33-26), but took too many penalties, including a costly one at the end of regulation. The Jets are #5 in the league on the power play, so that's an advantage they have here. However, their penalty killing (#23) remains an issue. Like Vegas, it is unclear as to who will be in goal here for Winnipeg. Regardless, expect them to give up some goals. The Over is 4-0 this season in Winnipeg home games if the total is 6.0 or higher. 10* Over Golden Knights/Jets

10* Under Stanford/USC (8:00 ET): From a pure power rankings perspective, there does appear to be some value here on Stanford, as most rankings I follow actually have them as the better team on a neutral field. Then there's the fact that the North Division Champ has OWNED the Pac 12 Title Game, winning all six instances. But, at the same time, there's "no running from" what the Trojans did to the Cardinal back in September when they won 42-24 at the Coliseum (as a 3.5-pt favorite). Furthermore, there is no denying - that situationally - this spot favors USC. After playing 12 straight reg season games w/o a bye, the Trojans are off one here and that's a big advantage. So even though I was on Stanford LW (big win over Notre Dame), I'm refraining from making a play on the side. Let's look at the total instead. 

USC had over 600 yds total offense (623 to be exact) in the earlier win over Stanford. That's an almost unheard of number against a David Shaw defense. It's not the only time USC has gone over 600 yds this season (did it to Arizona) nor is it the lone time going over 40 points (did it four times total). But here would probably be an appropriate time to bring up the old "rest vs. rust" debate. Earlier I spoke of the bye being USC's "friend" in this spot. But what if they start slow? Also, there is the fact that QB Sam Darnold, good as he is, turns the ball over more than you'd like to see. He already has three more interceptions than he did all of last year. Plus, his overall completion percentage is slightly down. I think Stanford's defense is going to play a lot better in this rematch and won't be surprised to see Southern Cal fail to finish off some drives, which is always key in betting an Under.

Bryce Love did play for Stanford last week and that was huge as the Cardinal upset Notre Dame 38-20 in Palo Alto. That was their highest scoring game in more than a month. Three of the previous four games saw the Cardinal offense fail to top 21 pts. It should also be noted the Stanford was outgained by ND (415-328), only to win the turnover battle, 3-0. QB KJ Costello threw a career-high 4 TD passes, something I seriously doubt we'll see again here. Stanford's final 2 TD drives both started inside the ND 30-yd line. Defensively, both touchdowns allowed were long pass plays, which is uncharacteristic for this defense. Love is of course still battling an ankle injury, which is likely to limit his effectiveness Friday night. I think we'll see a much lower-scoring game here compared to the first meeting. 10* Under Stanford/USC

10* Toronto (7:35 ET): The Raptors may never make a NBA Finals, but as per usual, they're being undervalued in the regular season. Right now, it is they (not Boston) that can claim to have the top net efficiency rating at +7.7 per 100 possessions (Boston +6.4) in the Eastern Conference. They can also claim a better traditional (read: actual) scoring differential than the Celtics YTD. They may not have the win streaks of the Celtics (or Cavs), but this remains a top tier team in the East. Tonight, they host an Indiana team that has surprised in the early going by posting a winning record (12-10 SU) and hanging around in the top eight of the Conference. But I don't buy the Pacers as being able to even maintain their current level of production and will fade them here.

Sure enough, the Pacers are off a 21-point loss in Houston Wednesday night. This is a fairly odd two-game road trip of Houston & Toronto. Now before getting blown out by the Rockets, Indiana was on a 5-1 SU/ATS run w/ the lone loss coming to Boston. They are also 5-1 ATS coming off a double-digit loss this season. But the fact they've been blown out so many times already (seven double-digit losses) doesn't really bode well for their future. Nor does the number of points they're allowing per game, which is currently 107.8. Over the L4 games, that number has grown to almost 110 PPG. Traditionally, the Pacers have NOT played well "North of the Border" as they are just 14-28 ATS their L42 visits to Toronto. The fact they attempted only SIX free throws in the game against Houston demonstrates an inability/unwillingness to get to the basket. 

This is a revenge game for the Raptors as well. Exactly one week ago, they blew a double-digit lead in the second half and lost 107-104. That was in Indiana though. Considering the Raptors were two-point favorites in that game, it certainly would appear there's some value on them here in this rematch. The third quarter has been an issue lately as they've blown double digit leads in three of the last four games. But Wednesday against Charlotte, they were able to bounce back in the 4Q for a comfortable 126-113 win. The good news is that this game is at home where the Raptors average an impressive 114.0 PPG. If Indiana could simply "outscore" Toronto in this situation, I'd give them more of a chance, but the bottom line is the Raptors are third in offensive efficiency while the Pacers are sixth. Plus, the Pacers were just 7 of 28 from three-point range on Wednesday. 10* Toronto

8* Manhattan (11:30 AM ET): It's a very early start time over in Belfast, Northern Ireland (!) and neither of these two teams are playing well. Holy Cross has lost three straight, all by double digits, while Manhattan has done the Crusaders "one worse" by losing its last four. However, two of those defeats came by four points or less and in Sunday's loss to Fordham, they turned the ball over 25 times, which doesn't seem "repeatable."  Defensively, HC is a mess as they've allowed three straight opponents to shoot better than 53% from the floor and in their last game, the opponent (Albany) had 10 more FG attempts, which is how the final score got so lopsided. I look for Manhattan to have its best offensive game of the season (to date) and get the win/cover. 

Holy Cross shot the ball pretty well last Saturday against Albany (home game), finishing at 50%. They also had three double digits scorers. However, as I mentioned above, the problem was not only that they allowed the Great Danes to shoot 53.4%, but they also had 10 more attempts. Not surprisingly then, we find that HC was dominated on boards, getting outrebounded 32-23. The three-point line was another factor as Albany shot 47.6% from behind the arc and HC was at only 27.8%. Defense has been an issue for the Crusaders as they are giving up an average of 77.2 points per game.  They have also been outrebounded in EVERY game so far.

Ironically, both of these teams started their respective seasons 2-0, which included wins over Harvard by an identical final score of 73-69! Both beat the Crimson on their home floors. In both cases, our two teams here jumped out to a double digit lead and had to hold on. As I said earlier, in their last game, Manhattan turned the ball over 25 times and as a result fell to Fordham by a final score of 70-57 as 4.5-pt underdogs. If the Jaspers turn the ball over that many times again, clearly, they're going to lose. But, fortunately, TO's really hadn't been a problem in any of the first five games. Again, HC has been blown out in three straight games. This is their first lined affair, but I reckon that had the oddsmakers hung a number on any of their previous three games, they'd been 0-3 ATS.  The travel isn't an advantage for either side, but I simply believe Manhattan to be the better team. 8* Manhattan

10* Under Bulls/Nuggets (9:05 ET): Denver is off a horrific showing Tuesday night Utah where they managed only 77 points in a 30-point loss to the short-handed Jazz. Speaking of "horrific showings," I present to you the 2017-18 Chicago Bulls. This team is atrocious and should be considered to be the worst in the league right now. Now, we knew the Bulls would be bad coming into the season, but they are currently "exceeding expectations" as they're being outscored by a mind-numbing 14 points per 100 possessions. They are the worst offensive team in the league (94.6 PPG) and I see little reason to "believe in them" here as they've shot only 37.7% from the field in the last two games while averaging 92.0 PPG. Take the Under. 

Coming off a terrible loss, the Nuggets should bounce back tonight, but to what degree? It's true that their scoring average does rise to 112.1 PPG here at home. But they'll be the ones doing all the "heavy lifting" here for Over bettors. If this game gets out of hand, which it very well may do, then I can see a low-scoring fourth quarter. Sure enough, Denver has a 7-3 Under record this season when facing a team w/ a losing record. Three times in the last five games, they've shot below 43% from the field, "bottoming out" w/ Tuesday's performance when they were at just 35.9%. 

Perhaps is that they are w/o Paul Milsap. I still think the Nuggets have the depth to overcome that injury, but the bottom line is that they haven't topped 104 pts in any of their last three games. Against Utah, they scored only 28 points after halftime! Chicago, however, has only topped 94 twice in its past 10 games! Additionally, they've been below 42% in six consecutive contests. Maybe Denver gets a slight offensive "bump" from returning home, but it won't be enough to help this one get Over the total as the Bulls are simply too offensively inept. In their three games vs. Northwest Division teams so far, Chicago has averaged a miserable 76.0 PPG. 10* Under Bulls/Nuggets

8* South Carolina (9:00 ET): Save for a loss to Illinois State in the relocated Puerto Rico Classic, Frank Martin's Gamecocks have played pretty well this season (5-1 SU), carrying over from LY's surprise Final Four run. Not many players returned from that group, but one that did - Chris Silva - led the way Monday night w/ a career-best 26 points and 10 rebounds in a 78-61 win over FIU, the team's first "true" roadie of this campaign. All four South Carolina victories this season have been by double-digits. That's what I'm looking for tonight as they play a neutral site game vs Temple tonight in Madison Square Garden, as part of the Under Armor Reunion Doubleheader. (First game is Seton Hall vs. Texas Tech).

Temple hasn't played as many games as USC (only 4) and comes in at 3-1 SU, impressive because they have yet to play an actual home game! They are, however, off their first loss, which came at LaSalle on Sunday. It was a particularly brutal setback for the Owls considering they led most of the way and even by double digits in the second half. But, over the final 10 minutes, they allowed LaSalle to score 29 points after allowing just 58 in the first 30. The key was a three-minute scoreless stretch, which allowed the Explorers to catch up. The Owls figure to struggle to score here against a South Carolina defense which is allowing only 39.5% shooting for the year, a hallmark under HC Martin.

It wasn't just Silva getting the job done for South Carolina against FIU; four players scored in double figures, including Frank Booker, who has been a solid addition via transfer. Booker (came from Florida Atlantic) leads the team in three-pointers made (17) and is shooting 40.5% from the arc. He is a senior. Both of these teams have fared remarkably well in neutral site affairs recently w/ USC at 11-3 ATS L14 and Temple doing them "one better" at 12-3 L15. So there's no real edge there. But how about the fact that MSG is where South Carolina won its Sweet 16 and Elite 8 Games in LY's stunning NCAA Tourney run? Perhaps that's an edge? The Gamecocks have not allowed more than 69 pts to any opponent this season. FIU shot just 4 of 17 from three-point range against them and USC had a major edge in rebounding while forcing 17 turnovers. They are the better team here. 8* South Carolina

10* Under Redskins/Cowboys (8:25 ET): This has the feel of almost an "elimination" game in the NFC playoff picture. We already know that the Eagles are a virtual lock to win the East as they have a five-game edge over both of these teams w/ only five left to play. The loser of this game will drop to 5-7 SU and in a top-heavy conference, that's tantamount to death. Both last played on Thanksgiving w/ Dallas getting blown out by the Chargers (third straight loss) while the Redskins snuck by the lowly Giants. Incredibly, the road team has won seven of the past eight meetings, including Dallas going to D.C. earlier this year (as a three-point favorite) and winning 33-19. The L4 matchups have also all gone Over the total (O/U line was 49.5 for that first meeting). 

These will not be the same two teams that faced off back in Week 8, specifically on the Dallas side. We know all about the Ezekiel Elliott suspension and what that has done to the offense. In the three games w/o him, the Cowboys have scored a TOTAL of 22 pts, no more than nine in any one game. Additionally, they have gained an average of just 235 yards per game during that three-game stretch. Elliott ran for his season high (150 yards) the first time around vs. Washington and had a pair of touchdowns. Since then, the Cowboys offense has scored a grand total of 2 TD's in the three games and they came 11 quarters apart. After taking a 7-0 lead on Atlanta in the first quarter back in Week 2, they did not find the end zone again until the 4th quarter on Thanksgiving (already down 16-0).

Nor is Washington the same here as they were last month. They have been besieged by injuries, particularly along the offensive line. That has obviously had an adverse effect on both QB Kirk Cousins and the running game. Last week, they gained just 322 total yards against the Giants and it should be noted that was a 10-10 game w/ just under four minutes to play. Washington has also been hit hard w/ RB Chris Thompson and TE Jordan Reed, two key components of the passing game, both out. With the line having "flipped" (Washington now favored), there's no value there, but w/ the total there is (even though it's several points lower than it was in that 1st meeting). Dallas' passing game ranks only 27th, so they're really limited in what they can do and the same can be said for Washington (due to injuries) as they have been held to 20 pts or fewer three times in their last five games. 10* Under Redskins/Cowboys

10* Washington (7:05 ET): In my analysis for Tuesday's Kings-Red Wings matchup, I wrote that "I expect the Kings to be A LOT better off (than the Red Wings) come season's end. So I was not surprised at all to see LA pull off the 4-1 victory, although it was the Under that I actually cashed on that matchup. Prior to the win, the Kings had dropped seven of nine w/ the offense being mostly non-existent during this time period. Tuesday marked just the second time in the last 10 gaemes that they scored more than three goals in regulation. They do rank 2nd in the league in goals allowed and 1st on the PK, but that won't be enough here, on the road, against the Caps. 

The competition in the Metro is a lot deeper than what it is in the Pacific. So while the Kings are currently locked into a first-place tie w/ surprising Vegas, Washington is middle of the pack in their own division. But things do seem to be trending "up" in the Nation's Capital. The Caps have won three straight, including a big 4-2 win at Toronto on 11.25. They haven't taken the ice since, which should be a big advantage (four days rest!) against a Kings team that is playing its second road game in three nights. Washington also recently beat Tampa Bay, here at home, so that's B2B wins over arguably the two top teams in the Eastern Conference. The key here was clearly HC Barry Trotz decision to reunite Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom on the top line. 

The Caps are known for scoring, so they'll test the Kings' stinginess. They've scored 12 times in the three-game win streak, so there are signs that the team we're used to seeing in Washington is "back" in full force. Also, the Kings are just 2-7 SU vs. teams w/ a winning record this season. Compared to past seasons, this is a pretty incredible price on the Caps at home. 10* Washington

10* Winnipeg (9:35 ET): Things are going so well for the Jets right now that even Deadspin is writing about them! Their 15-6-3 start is the best the franchise has seen in any season since coming back into the league as the Atlanta Thrashers back in 1997. They are also 5-1 SU against the rest of the Central, which is perhaps the toughest division in the sport today. Monday night saw them completely annihilate Minnesota, 7-2. I expect another easy win tonight as they face Colorado, who was the worst team in the league last season.

Colorado did get off to a surprisingly decent start this season, but not surprisingly that has subsided. They've lost six of nine coming into tonight, including B2B losses over the weekend to Calgary and Minnesota. Though seventh in the league in goals per game, one would have to go back nearly two full weeks to find the last time the Avs scored more than three regulation goals in a game. Goaltender Semyon Varlamov is back tonight, but he had been struggling w/ an .878 save percentage his L4 starts. The Avs are 24th in goals allowed per game this year and 27th on the penalty kill. That's going to mean trouble against a Winnipeg club that comes in ranked 6th in goals per game and 4th on the power play. The Jets are a deep team offensively and they have arguably the best fourth line in the league.  

The Jets are also a top 10 team in goals allowed per game (7th), thanks in large part to 24-year Connor Hellebuyck, who has a .927 save percentage. With so many "surprising" teams off to good starts this year, now is the time to start figuring out who is "for real" and who isn't. I put Winnipeg in the former category while Colorado (who has already slipped down into last place) is in the latter. 10* Winnipeg

10* Miami FL (9:15 ET): The Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge continues on Wednesday w/ the latter currently holding a commanding 6-1 advantage. (I cashed Florida St last night, albeit barely!). The Big 10's only win thus far came in perhaps the most marquee game to date, Purdue over Louisville, last night. It's also important to remember that Michigan State did just clobber North Carolina in a non-Challenge game on Sunday. That said, I'm sticking with the ACC today. It is interesting to note that in four of the six games scheduled for tonight, the Big 10 team is favored. One of those is Miami @ Minnesota, a matchup of two unbeaten teams ranked in the top 12. For Miami, this will be the first "real" test and their first "true" road game as well. Minnesota has won at Providence, but other than that, their schedule has been pretty soft too. I'm taking the points.

Given the level of competition, the "U's" scoring differential is probably what you'd expect. It's currently sitting at +25.8 points per game w/ all five wins coming by at least 11 points. Their latest, 86-65 over North Florida, came Saturday. Despite making only three three-pointers (on 15 attempts), the Hurricanes still manage to score 86 points, which is a pretty good sign. It was the the third time in four games scoring that many. I don't have much of an explanation for why they only scored 57 against LaSalle last week, but it should be noted that they did hold the Explorers w/o a single three-point FG in that game. Sophomore Bruce Brown may have "turned a corner" in the game vs. North Florida as he went for a team-high 14 pts. This is a very balanced team for HC Jim Larranaga and they have seven outright wins (in 16 overall tries) as an underdog the L3 seasons. 

There's only one Pitino left in the head coaching ranks and he is at Minnesota w/ Richard (Rick's son) leading the charge. The Golden Gophers are 7-0 SU and coming off wins over UMass and Alabama in the Barclays Center Classic over the weekend. While some may cite the stronger level of competition as a positive for Minnesota here, I think it could work against them as Miami has had less to deal with coming into tonight. Also, while they did dominate from start to finish against a ranked foe (Bama) on Saturday, note the Gophers only had to play against three players for a portion of the second half! Therefore, all of a sudden, a five-point win there doesn't look so impressive, does it? Minnesota has allowed 74 or more points four times already this season, which is a concern when laying points to an opponent as talented as Miami. 10* Miami FL

10* Over Thunder/Magic (7:05 ET): By most "traditional" measures (like won-loss record), OKC is having a very disappointing season. Despite adding a couple of All-Stars (Carmello Anthony, Paul George) to the roster in the offseason, the Thunder are just 8-11 straight up and outside the top eight in the Western Conference (currently 9th). However, this is still a good team that has played significantly better than its record. Don't believe me? Take, for instance, the fact that they've actually outscored the opposition or that they rank second in the league in defensive efficiency. It's been an inability to perform in the clutch that has cost them thus far. As a result, I'll shy away from them laying points on the road here. To the total we go though and I like the Over here.

Orlando got off to a surprisingly strong start this season, winning six of their first eight games. This is a franchise that has not made the playoff since Dwight Howard left town in 2012. So things were trending in a positive direction for the 1st time in a LONG time. But that hasn't lasted. The Magic have now dropped nine in a row and 11 of the last 13 games. Defense, rather lack of it, has been a major concern w/ the team allowing over 123 points per its last four games. In all but two games during the nine-game losing streak, they've allowed at least 110 pts to the opponent. So they're at the opposite end of the defensive spectrum compared to OKC. They rank 23rd in efficiency coming into tonight. 

The Thunder aren't exactly playing well now either as they have just one win in the last five games, ironically over Golden State. They just lost, outright, to Dallas as six-point favorites (97-81!) on Saturday. That followed another outright loss, this time to the Pistons, on Friday. I have to imagine this team will start to shoot better than its current clip of 43.9% moving forward. They shot just 36.2% from the floor against Dallas and that number almost certainly will be improved upon tonight, given the opponent they are facing. As for the Magic, they do shoot better than 38% from three-point range and have seen their last four games all go Over the total. They allowed both Philadelphia and Indiana (last 2 opponents) to both shoot better than 50% overall. OKC may be a perfect 7-0 Under vs. the Eastern Conference so far, but that trend comes to an end tonight! 10* Over Thunder/Magic

8* Denver (10:05 ET): These are two teams that figure to be fighting for the last couple of playoff spots in the Western Conference all season long. Right now, both are in the top eight w/ Denver slightly ahead at 11-8 SU (Utah 9-11). On the surface, this does NOT appear to be a great spot for the Nuggets, who are only 3-6 SU on the road (8-2 at home) and off a double-digit win (0-6 ATS in that role this season). But they are the better team here, in my opinion, and Utah is more likely to struggle moving forward w/o a key player (Rudy Gobert). The Jazz just aren't as strong (or deep) as they were last year, meaning injuries will be more difficult to overcome. Unlike Denver, who has the necessary depth to overcome Paul Milsap being out the next three months.

The Nuggets beat Memphis a lot worse than the final score of 104-92 showed on Friday night as they shot better than 50% from the floor and had a 2:1 edge in rebounds. Again, that tells me that they'll be just fine w/o Milsap. Part of that has to do w/ having Nikola Jokic on the roster. In the three games since Milsap went down, Jokic has averaged 20.3 points, 11.0 rebounds and 4.7 assists. He topped all of those averages against Memphis. Now, we know the Grizz are a downtrodden team right now, playing w/o its best player (PG Mike Conley). But guess what? Utah is not only now w/o Gobert, they're still trying to figure out how to replace the lost production from Gordon Hayward skipping town! 

I've been really impressed w/ how the Nuggets have dropped B2B games only one time all season. They've also been off since Friday, so they're well-rested. Utah is off a 121-108 win over Milwaukee on Saturday, their second straight w/o Gobert. But prior to that, they'd dropped 8 of 10. The Jazz's last four wins have all come at the expense of Eastern Conference foes and three of them were: Orlando, Brooklyn and Chicago. Defensively, the Jazz's numbers remain impressive (allow only 96.3 PPG), but that will be tested here by a Nuggets offense that comes in averaging 107.8 PPG. The gap here in offensive efficiency (in Denver's favor) exceeds the gap on the defensive end of the floor. The Nuggets are the better team here. 8* Denver

10* Under Kings/Red Wings (7:35 ET): Neither of these two proud franchises are playing particularly well right now, but by season's end, I expect the Kings to be A LOT better off than the Wings. That said, I will NOT be making a play on the side here. Los Angeles has lost seven of nine and during that stretch we've seen plenty of low-scoring games w/ the Under going 7-1-1. Just one time have the Kings scored more than two goals. As for Detroit, they've lost four in a row, giving up 16 goals in the process. However, three of those games have gone into overtime, which obviously adds to the number of goals scored. Both teams here are in the Top 10 in fewest goals allowed (Kings 2nd!), so Under is the play.

The Kings have been flip-flopping w/ Vegas all season long for first place in what looks like a very winnable Pacific Division (preseason favorite Edmonton has been a major disappointment). With Vegas on a five-game win streak, they lead LA by two points currently. But I'm not sure the Kings aren't the better team (most would agree?) and as per usual their success is tied to their excellent puck possession numbers. Interestingly though, they are only slightly above average in both Corsi and Fenwick this year. But where they are well above average is on the goals allowed side of the ledger. Not only do the rank 2nd in number of goals allowed per game (2.3), they also have the top penalty killing unit in the league (88.9 percent). That, right there, is going to ensure you win more than you lose. Goaltender Jonathan Quick is near the top of the league w/ a .928 save percentage. 

However, offensively, the Kings remain a bit "challenged." They're 22nd in goals scored per game and 21st on the power play. They lost their last game, 2-1, to Anaheim and that game went to a shootout. Their last two games have gone beyond regulation, so take away OT, and we've seen just six total goals scored in the L2 games. Detroit, meanwhile, has actually allowed three or fewer goals in regulation in all but two games this month. When the Kings get on an Under roll like the one they are now, it typically continues for awhile. Over the L3 seasons, the Under is 22-9 for them if they are coming off three or more consecutive games that stayed Under the total. The Red Wings are just ahead of the Kings in terms of goals scored per game (rank 21st) and are also top three in penalty killing. With two struggling offenses, top 10 teams in goals allowed and top three PK units, this looks like an easy Under to me. 10* Under Kings/Red Wings

8* Florida State (7:00 ET): Of all the matchups in this year's Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge, this one probably ranks near the bottom for most in terms of interest. However, it should be pointed out that both of these teams are undefeated, Florida State at 5-0 and Rutgers at 6-0. However, in the case of both (particularly the latter), that's a byproduct of a weak schedule. Rutgers has not even yet had to leave campus (nor are they tonight) and their opposition thus far has been every bit as poor as it reads (NY City Tech, C Conn St, Cleveland St, Coppin St, Bryant and East Carolina). FSU at least "dared" to leave Tallahassee for a short bit, playing Fordham and Colorado State in Jamaica. The Seminoles have yet to win a game by fewer than 19 pts and thus I'll lay a short number w/ them here. 

The 'Noles last game was an easy 113-78 win over The Citadel on Friday. Now, we shouldn't get too excited about that point total as those familiar w/ the sport will tell you that many teams score 100+ against The Citadel. However, FSU did hold the Bulldogs to a season-low 33.3% shooting. That's notable b/c LY, The Citadel led the nation in scoring. So, it was actually the effort on the defensive end that was the greater achievement there. FSU is a deep team w/ plenty of length and size. Rutgers, like The Citadel, will struggle to score in this game. Mark my words.

Four of Rutgers' six games have not been lined, which should tell you about the level of competition right there. They've yet to play a team ranked higher than #245 in my own power rankings! Florida State comes in at #40 for me, so this will be quite the major step up in class for the Scarlet Knights. Yes, I'm conceding that the Seminoles haven't really played "anyone" either, but is there anyone willing to make the claim that Rutgers is the better team here? I certainly hope not. Even w/ the homecourt advantage, Rutgers won't be able to keep this one close as they're likely to be crushed on the interior by an opponent that is shooting almost 53% from the field, for the year. 8* Florida State

10* Over Texans/Ravens (8:30 ET): Only in the AFC and only in 2017 could both the Texans and Ravens both be in playoff contention. Both teams have put forth truly pedestrian seasons. Baltimore, off a 23-0 shutout of Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay, is now 5-5 and may actual control its own playoff destiny. Houston is 4-6 SU and even after last week's 31-21 win over Arizona, they're "up against it" due to being w/o their #1 QB, DeShaun Watson. Offense is both teams' albatross, but as a result, we have a very low total to work w/ Monday night. Conventional wisdom says to go Under here, but it won't take much to go Over either. I'm going "unconventional."

Even w/ Tom Savage under center, the Texans were still able to put up 31 points and 357 yards last week. A big reason for that was rookie D'Onta Foreman emerging w/ a pair of fourth quarter TD's. Now, it likely will be a challenge to run the ball against a Ravens defense that has allowed 45, 71 and 75 yards over land the L3 games. But, for the year, that same group allows 135 YPG rushing at home. So they can be run on. I admit that I am worried about Savage facing a secondary that leads the league in interceptions. But this also works both ways. We've seen this Baltimore defense find the end zone before, which is always a boon to Over bettors. Only two teams - Jacksonville and Detroit - can claim more defensive scores than the Ravens' five. Furthermore, they (Baltimore) are the ONLY team in the league to have BOTH a kickoff and punt return for TD to their credit.

Houston may not have any special teams TD's to its credit, but like Baltimore they have four defensive scores. So again, I'm almost "expecting" a non-offensive TD in this game. The Ravens have delivered two shutouts in the last three games, thereby "skewing" their overall point differential for the season. The offense has scored 20+ pts in five of the last six games and before last week, the team's previous five games all went Over the total. QB Joe Flacco "leads" the league's worst passing attack, but here he'll be facing a secondary that is 26th against the pass. So Monday night very well could be his "coming out party." 10* Over Texans/Ravens

8* Brooklyn (8:05 ET): The Nets got me yday, taking advantage of a Mike Conley-less Grizzlies team that is REALLY struggling right now, and won outright 99-88 as 5.5-point pups. It was their fifth consecutive cover (2-3 straight up). But they're certainly not getting any respect here tonight as they are huge underdogs at red-hot Houston. For my money, the Rockets are the best team in the league not named "Golden State" as they even have a better WL record than the Dubs (one fewer loss) and are outscoring opponents by an average of 10 PPG. But this spread is too high. Take the points. 

The Nets used a 32-18 third quarter to take the advantage for good last night in what was pretty easily their finest defensive effort of the season to date. Now, they'll clearly be tested tonight and it's not a good sign that they are allowing the second most points in the league. However, the Nets are a perfect 7-0 ATS this season against teams averaging 106 or more points per game and 7-1 ATS vs. teams w/ a winning record. Last week, they covered against both Golden State and Cleveland (LY's two NBA Finalists), losing by 10 pts or less to both. They also played a very good Portland team tough on Saturday afternoon, losing by only two (127-125). The fast pace at which Brooklyn plays at might cost them tonight, but not to the degree the oddsmakers are calling for. 

For Houston, this will be the second game in a row that they are monster favorites. They couldn't cover a 19-point spread against the Knicks on Saturday, winning by "only" 15. Now they have won four straight by an average of 23.3 PPG. But eventually, those kind of margins can't be sustained. Case in point; the Rockets actually trailed the Knicks by as many as 22 points Saturday night! There was a 45-point swing that resulted in them leading by as many as 23 (crazy game!), but still, it's a dangerous way to play when you're "turning it on and off." Note the Knicks were w/o their two best players, Kristaps Porzingis and Enes Kanter, also. The Nets are 2-0 ATS this season when coming off a double digit win. 8* Brooklyn

10* Under Blue Jackets/Canadiens (7:35 ET): It has been a swift & harsh fall from grace for Montreal this season as LY's Atlantic Division winners have the second worst goal differential in the Eastern Conference (third worst overall) at -23. They have been bad on all sides of the ledger, but perhaps the main culprit is them ranking 30th (next to last) in goal scoring (also 29th on the power play). Certainly, being 27th in goals allowed (and 27th in penalty killing) doesn't help matters either, but Carey Price did deliver a 36-save shutout on Saturday night vs. Buffalo. The Habs' L3 games have all stayed Under the total and that's the way I see tonight's game going as they've only topped three goals in a game twice in all of November! 

Columbus is the opponent Monday night and the Blue Jackets are red-hot right now. Not only have they won six straight, but they've allowed two goals or fewer in every game while doing so. They now trail the surprising Devils by only one point for first place in the Metro. The Blue Jackets are third in the league in goals allowed (2.3 per game), so I expect the Habs to really struggle to find the back of the net in this game, if they are even able to at all. Former Vezina Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky comes into tonight red hot himself as his save percentage in the L4 starts is an outstanding .966. He's allowed just six goals total during the team's win streak. Also, C-bus ranks fifth in the league on the PK. 

Something to keep in mind here is that Montreal has been w/o Price for a significant portion of the season. Saturday night marked his first time back on the ice in 10 games. So, the shutout is definitely something to build on. At the same time, my outlook on the Habs' offense remains gloomy. Columbus had seen its last seven games all stay Under the total before breaking out for five goals themselves Friday vs. Ottawa. But if there is one weak spot w/ this Blue Jackets club, it's the power play where they rank dead last in the league at a hideous 9.7 percent. When these teams met two weeks ago (no Price for Montreal), it was a 2-1 final and that was w/ OT. Columbus only ranks 18th in the league in goals per game. 10* Under Blue Jackets/Canadiens

8* Alabama State (7:00 ET): Normally, "best practice" when selecting an underdog, in any sport, is to have a belief that there's a chance they could take the game straight up. Clearly though, that is NOT the case here. But look at this pointspread for a minute. All we are asking for is a team NOT to lose by FORTY points! I think that's doable. And I say that as someone who has tremendous respect for the Cincinnati basketball team and thinks they should be ranked even higher than they currently are (#12/#13 in AP/Coaches). But coming off an impressive showing in the Cayman Islands, I look for the Bearcats to "look right past" this game as they have a huge date w/ city rival Xavier looming this weekend. Take the points. 

While Cincy is 6-0 SU (3-1 ATS), Alabama State finds itself on the opposite end of the spectrum at 0-6 SU (0-1 ATS). Yes, their one lined game saw them getting 35.5 pts and they failed to cover, losing 114-56 at Oregon. But, let's give the Hornets some credit for trying, shall we? With the exception of their last game, the Hornets have done nothing but play "true" road games. They were hardly competitive in any of them, but other than Oregon, they didn't lose any by more than 34 points. It's certainly a "low bar" we're setting for ASU here, but that's where the oddsmakers come in. Now, the Hornets did just lose last week (101-97) to a Savannah State team that Cincy beat by 30 points. But a 61-point second half there (!) should at least give them some hope for tonight. That was a neutral site affair, by the way, played in Chattanooga, TN. 

Not only does Cincy have Xavier looming, but they also have dates w/ Florida, Mississippi State and UCLA coming up as well. Simply put, this game is unlikely to hold the players' interest, even though they can easily win it w/o much effort. Only twice in the L20 seasons have the Bearcats been favored in a game by more than 30 points. Also, it should be mentioned that they are playing "home games" this season off-campus, at Northern Kentucky due to their own arena undergoing renovations. Maybe that matters some? Regardless, Alabama State should be way more up for this game than Cincinnati and should keep it within 40 points. 8* Alabama State

8* Texas A&M (10:00 ET): We've got a pair of unbeatens meeting Sunday night in Los Angeles w/ USC hosting Texas A&M. The visitors will have revenge on their mind for LY's 65-63 loss in College Station where they were six-point favorites. Both teams are ranked (USC #10 and A&M #16) in the latest AP Poll while the Aggies are a few spots lower (#19) according to the Coach's (who also have USC #10). However, I have A&M rated as the better team. Tip your cap to the job Andy Enfield is doing at Southern Cal, but I'm not sure we're not "putting the cart before the horse" when it comes to this season's presumed Pac 12 favorite (along w/ Arizona). I expect payback this year from the Aggies.

This will be Texas A&M's first "true" road game, but they have won at neutral sites over West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Penn State. Every win so far (5-0) has come by double digits, including two nights ago at home over lowly Pepperdine (81-65). That margin was actually not close to what the oddsmakers were calling for (-28), but I think that can be chalked up to looking ahead to this game."I thought our energy wasn't very good at times, but when we needed it we were able to raise it up a level at the end," Texas A&M coach Billy Kennedy said. "Winning two big games (in New York) and then coming home, we didn't play like a veteran team." It should be noted that A&M still played very good defense against the Waves, as they held them to just 38.7% shooting from the floor, including 4 of 19 from three-point range.

They'll need to bring that same defense here as USC comes in shooting at a torrid 46% from three-point range in the last two contests, wins over Vanderbilt and Lehigh. Needless to say, I think A&M is going to hold them in check as shooting at that kind of rate from distance is hard to sustain anyway. Last year, the Aggies held the Trojans to just 5 of 26 shooting from three-point range. The level of competition USC has faced thus far has not been all that challenging. The win over Vandy was a "true" road game, but came by only four points. Both times the Trojans have been a home fave of three points or less under Enfield, they've lost outright. A&M has already pulled one upset this year, beating West Virginia by 23 when they were seven-point dogs. In four of the five games so far, A&M has allowed 65 or fewer points. They are #9 in defensive efficiency according to the KenPom rankings. That will be the difference in this one. 8* Texas A&M

8* Green Bay (8:30 ET): These two proud franchises (combined for 10 Super Bowls) seem to be trending in very different directions right now. Pittsburgh, ten days removed from trouncing Tennessee 40-17, has won five in a row and should probably be considered the top team in the AFC right now. Green Bay's season went down the drain when Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone and they're just 5-5 SU following an ugly, shutout loss at the hands of Pittsburgh's rival (Baltimore) last week (23-0). As a result, we now have a pointspread that would have deemed unfathomable at the start of the season for this Sunday night matchup. I'll take the points, noting the Packers covered for me as dogs two weeks ago, winning outright in Chicago.

Since Rodgers went down, the Pack are just 1-4 SU w/ the lone victory coming against the Bears. They've failed to cover the spread in all four losses, but the marketplace has also been slow to react to just how signifcant the dropoff from Rodgers to Brett Hundley is. However, that being said, last week marked the first time under Hundley that GB lost a game by more than 13 points. It's not as if they've been losing to bad teams either as all four defeats came against teams w/ winning records, two of them being division leaders. While they were shutout, the problem last week vs. the Ravens was five turnovers. They actually outgained Baltimore 265-219. Obviously, it's tied to the QB situation, but this is an unprecedented pointspread for the Packers under HC Mike McCarthy. 

Before the win over the Titans last Thursday, Pittsburgh had not topped 30 points in any game this year! It also should be noted that they were the beneficiaries of a +4 TO margin vs. Tennessee and total yardage was almost identical (only +33). I did call for their highest scoring effort of the season vs. Tennessee (had the Over), but the bottom line is when you're averaging only 22.7 PPG, it's difficult to cover a spread as large as this one. Over the L3 games. the Packers defense has allowed just 64, 55 and 58 yards rushing. Anything similar would almost certainly keep them in this game until the very end. 8* Green Bay

10* Calgary (6:00 ET): It's time for the 105th Grey Cup and it should come as no shock to see that Calgary is once again involved. The league's preeminent franchise of the last decade, the Stampeders are making their third appearance in this game in the last four years. They will be looking to erase the memory of LY's heartbreaking loss to Ottawa and win their first Grey Cup since 2014. Toronto has won more Grey Cups than any franchise in league history (16), but they are only a 10-9 SU team as it always seems as if the Eastern Division comes into this game looking significantly weaker on paper. Of course, such was the case LY when Calgary lost to Ottawa, but revenge will be theirs this year, even though the Argos should have the edge in crowd support w/ the game taking place in Ottawa. 

After a poor end to the regular season (lost 3 straight!), Calgary won the Western Division Final (6th straight year appearing in that game!) over rival Edmonton last week, 32-28 as five-point chalk. This is the fourth time in five years they finished first in the West and 10th straight year they've won at least 10 games. But they actually enter this game on a five-game ATS skid. Nevertheless, they have beaten Toronto eight straight times and covered each of the last five. In the two matchups this year, the Stamps outscored the Argos by more than a 2:1 margin (64-31) and outgained them by 248 total yards! Botth wins came by at least 16 points even though they trailed in each! 

Remember that before the "slump" at the end of the regular season, Calgary was 13-1-1 its first 15 games. Toronto, who finished in last place in 2016, has made a big jump this season and at no point this season have they been more than a game above .500. At one point, they were 4-7 SU and appeared to be going "nowhere fast." Credit them for winning six of their last eight, but they play in the weaker division and have only outscored the opposition by 30 pts all season. Compare that to Calgary, who has a league best point differential of +178. Defensively is where the Stamps are superior here as they are allowing only 18.1 PPG, a league low. They are also #1 against the pass, forced the most turnovers and have the most sacks. The running game has been huge for Toronto during their late season surge w/ production nearly doubling in that area since Week 13. But I don't look for them to have much success here. Last time these teams faced off, the Argos were held to just 18 yards rushing and didn't have a single offensive touchdown. 10* Calgary

10* Memphis (6:05 ET): Things have unravelled in a hurry for the Grizzlies as they've lost seven straight, largely a result of losing PG Mike Conley to an achilles injury. Conley will be out for an indefinite period of time and that definitely makes it a rather "gloomy" outlook for the Grizz, who have not been able to top 94 pts in any of their last four games. This losing streak actually began when Conley was still in the lineup, but the decline in scoring came once he was injured. Help comes this evening though in the form of the Brooklyn Nets and their atrocious defense. The Nets are determined to play at a fast pace and the result of that has been them allowing an average of 114.9 points per game, second most in the league. It's telling that Memphis is still favored here.

Brooklyn has lost three straight and five of their last six. In each of the L3 games, they've given up at least 118 points and all of those games ended in regulation. Now, the competition has been fierce w/ them facing the Warriors, Cavs and Blazers. But the road has been unkind to this team as their record away from the Barclays Center is 2-7 straight up as they're shooting only 43.9% from the field in those games. The line here is notable due to the fact that - usually - you'll find the Nets as a much larger underdog. They're being outscored by seven points per game away from home, so this line looks like a bargain. 

I had the Under in Memphis' last game as they fell at Denver, 104-92. Prior to that, they'd lost four in a row here at home. They've actually lost six straight here at the FedEx Forum, their last win coming all the way back in late October over Houston! Because they haven't covered a single spread during their seven-game skid, there's going to be value on them in the short term. Again, it is telling that they'd still be favored here. Brooklyn has been covering in defeat (4-0 ATS L4), but twice was a double-digit dog in that span. 10* Memphis

8* New Orleans (4:25 ET): I believe the better team is getting points here and I say that as someone who has tremendous respect for the Rams, even labeling them as a top five team. But the Saints are on a different level right now w/ eight consecutive wins after an 0-2 SU start. Something you may have heard before is that New Orleans is just the third team in league history to have a win streak of six or more games following an 0-2 start to the season. The other two both won the Super Bowl. Now, I definitely remember playing against these Saints last week as they never were "in the money" as TD chalk against Washington. In fact, they needed a miracle rally in the final minutes of the 4Q just to force overtime, where they won 34-31. But they're not favored this week and that's key. 

The Rams had a win streak of their own (four games) snapped LW w/ a humbling 24-7 defeat at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings. After scoring a TD on the opening drive, the Rams never scored again. In fact, they were held to just 179 total yards the rest of the way. This is an offense that came in as the highest scoring in the entire league, mind you, something that has come as a shock considering how poor they (specifically QB Jared Goff) looked a year ago. But that was under Jeff Fisher. Sean McVay has engineered a remarkable turnaround here. But the Rams offense isn't the only unit that's pulled off a remarkable turnaround in 2017. The Saints defense, long the albatross holding QB Drew Brees and the offense back, has improved exponentially this season. They've pulled it off through a variety of off-season acquisitions, both via the draft and free agency. Incredibly, before the comeback last week vs. Washington, New Orleans had allowed 17 pts or fewer in six of its last seven games! 

Now there are some significant injuries for the Saints on the defensive side of the ball, the main one being DE Alex Okafor tearing his ACL and being done for the season. But let us not forget about Brees and that offense, which gained 535 total yards last week! They're averaging 474.7 YPG the L3 weeks. They also now have a running game to lean on w/ the "two-headed monster" of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Note the Rams' defense is only 20th against the run and hasn't exactly faced the toughest slate of rushing attacks. While the Saints defense has lost Okafor, the Rams offense is w/o WR Robert Woods, a key loss. Key is that this will be the first time since Week 3 that New Orleans is an underdog. Good value as they are 14-6 ATS in that role the L3 seasons w/ nine outright victories. The Rams are just 1-4 SU/ATS the L5 times they have been listed as home chalk of three points or less, including 0-2 this season. 8* New Orleans

8* NY Rangers (2:05 ET): This will be the second time in three days that I've played the Rangers and why not? They cashed for me Friday, albeit needing overtime, as they beat Detroit 2-1. That was the Blueshirts' 9th win in the last 11 games as they continue to try and fight their way to the top of the congested Metro. The "problem" they are facing, at least right now, is that every other team ahead of them in the division has been winning too. They're still in sixth place, although only six points back of first. Sunday is a matchup they simply must take advantage of as Vancouver comes calling to MSG. The Canucks have been slightly better than expected so far this season, but they are prohibitive underdogs in this spot for a reason. (They're not very good!)

The Canucks are off a loss, in New Jersey, which actually did the Rangers no favors. (The Devils are one of the teams NY is chasing in the Metro). It was their third road game in four nights and this will be four in six as this current trip out East (six games) will carry them through the end of the month. The Canucks have gone six consecutive games w/o outshooting an opponent. That's never a good sign. Nor is the fact that the team isn't getting much offensive production from either Sedin twin. This being an early start time Sunday does the West Coast team no favors either. Over the L3 seasons, Vancouver is 27-60 SU when facing a team w/ a winning record. 

Meanwhile, the Rangers are a hot team that has won seven in a row here on home ice. Much of their recent success can be tied to the play of goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, who is sporting a .937 save percentage in November. In the L3 games, he has allowed just two goals on 94 shots. He made 40 saves in the win over Detroit Friday night, but shouldn't have to face nearly that many this afternoon. Offensively, the Rangers are top eight in goals per game and on the power play. On paper, this game just looks like a complete mismatch. 8* NY Rangers

10* Kansas City (1:00 ET): In the upcoming offseason, I think we'll take a look back at Week 11 as the seminal moment of the Bills season. It's when HC Sean McDermott gambled and elected to bench QB Tyrod Taylor (despite overachieving) and instead start the unproven Nathan Peterman. The gamble was a disaster as the Bills lost 54-24 to the Chargers w/ Peterman throwing FIVE interceptions on just 14 attempts. By the end of the game, Taylor was back in, but you have to wonder about his relationship w/ the head coach and organization moving forward. Meanwhile, a lot of people are starting to wonder about the Chiefs. Remember when we all thought they were the best team in the league? Well, after that 5-0 start (including Wk 1 thumping of the Patriots), they've dropped four of five, including an embarrassing defeat LW (in OT) where they were DD favorites over the Giants. Most will view this as a big number, and it is, but it's justified as KC is in far better position to bounce back this week. 

With five of their final six opponents currently sporting a losing record, I think the Chiefs are in fine position to win the AFC West for a second straight year. Now, you might have thought the same going into last week's game in New York. Oddly, despite high winds, Andy Reid elected to pass the ball 60% of the time. The offense did gain 363 total yards, but was held w/o a touchdown (three field goals of 31 yds or less) and turned the ball over three times. The good news is that those problems are correctable. Normally, the Chiefs are winning the turnover battle. I expect them to here. I also expect them to increase their sack total from last week, which won't be hard b/c it was 0 against the G-Men. Buffalo could be w/o its starting left tackle, Cordy Glenn, again. This is also the right defense to be facing right now as the Bills have allowed 135 pts the L3 games, which is the fourth most over any three-game span in the league since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger!

Truth be told, when Buffalo was winning (started 5-2!), they were doing it w/ "smoke and mirrors." They have been outgained in every game since Week 1 and rank 27th in yards per game since Week 9 and 29th in yards allowed. They've been outgained by nearly 115 YPG during that stretch and are -65.0 YPG for the season. This is a below average football team, playing on the road w/ a shaky QB situation. Not good. While the Bills have lost three in a row by double digits, only one of the Chiefs' four losses have been by more than six points. They're at home, off an embarrassing defeat and just a better all-around team compared to Buffalo. 10* Kansas City

8* Carolina (1:00 ET): From a power rankings perspective, this may not look like a slam dunk, but I'll side w/ what is the far better team, laying a short number. Both the Panthers and Jets are off byes. But that's basically where the similarities end. Carolina is 7-3 SU and in prime position to get back to the playoffs, even in a crowded in NFC South. The Jets are 4-6 SU, a record which has surprised many as they were pegged to be the worst team in the entire league coming into the season. Where I see the mismatch here is Carolina's defense (holding opponents to 77 YPG below their season averages) against a Jets offense that doesn't top 20 pts very often. The Panthers have a number of ugly wins already in 2017 and this will be yet another. They'll cover the spread though. 

This Carolina defense has been really impressive so far as they are #2 in the league in yards allowed (trailing JAX by less than 3 YPG for top spot) and also top five in points allowed (18.0 per game). They shouldn't find it too difficult stopping a Jets' offense being quarterbacked by journeyman Josh McCown. In the game before the bye, the Jets had only three points before scoring a late TD against the Bucs (lost 15-10) and for the third time in four games didn't even gain 300 total yards. This matchup (Carolina D vs. Jets O) is every bit the mismatch that it appears to be on paper and we're in very good shape on this half of the ledger. The Jets are 24th in the league in YPG differential.

The Carolina offense is also now getting going w/ an avg of 439 YPG the last three weeks. They scored 45 pts in a near 600-yard effort vs. Miami in the last game. Now Cam Newton gets his favorite target (TE Greg Olson) back and the Jets happen to struggle at defending the tight end position, having allowed at least 67 yds to opposing TE's in 6 of 10 games thus far. Furthermore, the running game has gone over 200 yds in B2B games (Newton had 95 vs. Miami). The Jets are only 23rd in the league against the run, a shell of the unit they were when they had Sheldon Richardson clogging up the middle. This is an ideal matchup for the road favorite, who is 60-24 SU vs. teams w/ a losing record in the 2H of the season (55-28 ATS) including eight consecutive victories. 8* Carolina

analysis soon

10* Boston (7:05 ET): After having their 16-game win streak snapped Wednesday in Miami, the Celtics wasted little time in getting back into the win column as they routed Orlando last night by a score of 118-103, covering as 6.5-point home favorites. The game was a much bigger blowout than even that final indicates as Boston enjoyed a 30-point lead entering the 4th quarter. Tonight, they play another Eastern Conference foe off to a surprisingly good start, that being Indiana. The Pacers have found plenty of success at the betting window as well, covering five straight games and all of those have been SU wins as well. But, unlike in Beantown, I don't expect the winning to continue in the Hoosier State and once again the oddsmakers are undervaluing the Celtics. Lay the short number.

Under Brad Stevens, Boston has typically been a great ATS team when playing on the second night of a back to back. Ironically, despite all their success vs. the number, the team is 0-2 ATS in this spot this season. However, note the situations. The first time, they were caught having to go to Milwaukee, the game after losing Gordon Hayward for the season and losing a close one to rival Cleveland on Opening Night. The second time was a trip to Atlanta where they were laying a big number. It seems as if bettors are "wanting" to bet against Boston right now, something I get (they can't go on covering like this forever), but because of this mindset, I feel oddsmakers are offering some real "soft" lines that we can take advantage of. The Celtics remain #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and are allowing just 95.7 points per game. 

Indiana also played last night, here at home, and upset the Toronto Raptors as two-point home underdogs. Now don't you think the Celtics should be bigger favorites than the Raptors? Last night's Raptors-Pacers game certainly could have gone either way (Toronto actually led by 10 at halftime) and Indiana would not have won if not for the effort from Victor Oladipo, who had a team-high 21 points. Sadly, Oladipo left in the 4th quarter w/ a knee injury and is listed as questionable to play tonight. His absence would certainly make the Pacers job a lot tougher tonight. I just can't see Indiana beating Toronto and Boston on consecutive nights and note they are allowing 107.2 PPG this year, which is tied for fifth most in the Eastern Conference. This will already be the SIXTH time the Pacers have had to play on back to back nights this season! 10* Boston

8* Under Knights/Coyotes (8:05 ET): Vegas continues to be one of the big stories in the league this year as a four-game win streak has them back atop the Pacific. At the bottom of the division, you will find Arizona, who has a league low 15 points as well as a -29 goal differential. Despite the possibility of the Golden Knights scoring plenty here, I'm jumping on the Under on what is an unusually high O/U line. Both teams played last night and the Under is 10-1 in the 'Yotes L11 games. 

Vegas has scored 4+ goals in each game during the win streak. They prevailed in OT last night, 5-4 over San Jose, once again finishing w/ a substantial edge in shots on goal (have outshot last four opponents). The discrepancy wasn't near as large as it was vs. LA or Anaheim, but was still 33-26 plus the Knights were able to score twice on the power play. I realize that - on paper - this is a huge mismatch w/ the league's 3rd highest scoring team going up against an opponent that ranks 31st (last) in goals allowed. But I'm going to surprisingly call for the Golden Knights' offensive surge to subside some. I just don't think they can continue to beat opposing goaltenders at the current rate of 11.8% of the time. Note their first visit here to the desert elicited a 2-1 win over the Coyotes despite 42 shots on goal. 

Arizona won't score much either as they rank 29th in the league in goals per game. As mentioned before, 10 of their last 11 games have stayed Under the total. They've done a good job at limiting the number of opponents' shots recently though, allowing 28 or fewer in three straight games. With the OT win over Los Angeles last night, they've now won four of five, making this - easily - the best stretch of hockey we've seen from them all season. Only one of those previous 11 contests has seen more than five total goals scored. 8* Under Knights/Coyotes

10* Georgetown (6:00 ET): Little was expected from Patrick Ewing, perhaps the school's most famous alumnus, and Georgetown this year. But his Hoyas have started 3-0 SU w/ every win comig by at least 26 points! Now, the competition has hardly been "fierce," nor have they had to leave home. The latter changes this evening w/ a visit to Richmond, however, just like the Hoyas' previous three opponents, the Spiders should provide little resistance. They're 1-4 SU w/ three of those losses coming by double digits, two of them when favored. Consider they've already lost a game - by 33 (!) - Jacksonville State this year! Not to mention Delaware came here and won by 13. That's a pretty ominous sign for the season and I look for Ewing's chargers to remain unbeaten here. 

While Richmond is off a trip to the Cayman Islands (lost twice), Georgetown has been off for the last week. Last Saturday, the Hoyas beat MD-Eastern Shore 83-57. It was their third straight non-lined affair to start the season. Both Jessie Govan and Marcus Derrickson turned in double-doubles and Kaleb Johnson scored a career-high 24 points. The game was over by halftime as the Hoyas led 40-19 and they actually started the game w/ a 35-8 run! Now, we all figure that once Big East play gets underway, the Hoyas are going to struggle. But that's still a month away. Ewing is going to enjoy a grace period here no matter what (has never coached at any level), but he'd sure like to continue racking up the wins to earn further good will among the fan base. A (very) soft non-conference schedule should allow him to do so. 

Richmond did not do well in the Cayman Islands, meaning their backers won't be able to stash any money there. They first lost to to Cincinnati (no shame there) 75-48 as 16.5-pt dogs. Then came a loss to La Lafayette, 82-76 as seven-point dogs. That one was particularly painful as they actually led by as many as seven in the second half and by six w/ just seven minutes to go. Similar to G'town in the Big East, not much is expected from Richmond this year in the Atlantic 10. It's pretty telling that the Spiders are listed as underdogs here. They've covered only 9 of their previous 27 home games and outright losses to the likes of Delaware and Jacksonville State may mean things will get worse before they get any better. The Hoyas have covered 14 of teir last 18 when listed as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. 10* Georgetown

8* Over West Virginia/Oklahoma (3:45 ET): With one team (WVU) w/o its starting QB (lost to injury) and the other (Oklahoma) w/o its (likely Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield) for an undisclosed amt of time due to his sideline behavior LW, the knee-jerk reaction here would be to call for an Under. But I've always fashioned myself as a "contrarian" of sorts and wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see more points scored than expected. Stripped of his captaincy, Mayfield could miss as little as a series. Kyler Murray will start the game and has experience playing two years ago while at Texas A&M. This Sooners' offense leads the nation w/ 588.7 yards per game and is #5 in scoring at 44.0 points per game. They've gone over 40 four of the last five weeks, the exception seeing them score "only" 38 against a very good TCU defense. 

West Virginia is in a bit of a dicier situation w/ QB Will Grier lost for the year. They scored only 14 pts last week in an upset loss to Texas in Morgantown and that was w/ Grier playing a quarter. They gained a season-low 295 total yards. But that Texas' defense is a lot more stout than Oklahoma's. In Grier's absence, in steps Chris Chugunov. He threw for 189 yards in relief of Grier last week and I expect a MUCH better showing here now that he's not being thrust into playing w/o preparation. A full week of practice can go a long way. Even after last week's 41-3 thumping of putrid Kansas, OU is still allowing an average of 25.2 points per game. 

It appears as if I'm not the only "contrarian" when it comes to playing this total as despite a majority of tickets being written on the Under, the O/U line has gone up during the course of the week. That's usually a good sign. I think we can look for the Sooners to score plenty here as Mayfield should get into the game sooner rather than later. They have three receivers w/ 649+ yards and two running backs that will have 600+ yards rushing. With West Virginia, Dana Holgorsen largely runs a "plug and play" system, meaning any QB he's recruited should pan out. This is an offense that has averaged 544 YPG on the road this season. Last year, the game was 56-28 (in Oklahoma's favor). The year before, here in Norman, it was 44-24 (again in OU's favor). In fact, four of the previous five meetings have seen at least 68 total pts scored. 8* Over West Virginia/Oklahoma

8* Alabama (3:30 ET): This year's installment of the Iron Bowl is as anticipated as any Alabama-Auburn matchup in recent memory. Certainly, Auburn fans will recall the 2013 game when they upset a top-ranked Bama team here at Jordan-Hare (as 10-pt underdogs) on the now infamous "kick-six." This year, the Crimson Tide again enter the regular season finale unbeaten and ranked #1 in the country (3rd time in last 5 seasons!) and control their destiny for the CFP. But so does #5 Auburn, who would also be in the CFB if they win the next two weeks. The lookahead line for this game was as high as Bama -10 before Auburn's thumping of Georgia two weeks ago. That and a number of injuries for the Tide have conspired to drop it pretty dramatically, to the point where I now feel the value is all on Alabama. Lay the points. 

Both teams got to enjoy "tune-ups" last week. Alabama shutout FCS foe Mercer 56-0 while Auburn beat La Monroe (one of the worst FCS teams) 42-14. It was what happened the prior Saturday, however, that has people believing in the dog here. Auburn absolutely crushed then #1 Georgia 40-17 (as 2.5-pt underdogs) while Alabama survived its lone real scare of the season, winning 31-24 at Mississippi State (Tide were over +100 in total yds). But let's not forget that Auburn also has blown a 20-point lead and lost at LSU and was dominated by Clemson early in the season. They have lost five of the last six Iron Bowls with Alabama's victories coming an average of 24 PPG. Last year, it was 30-12 in Tuscaloosa w/ Bama as a 17-pt favorite. 

The Crimson Tide do have some very real injuries to be concerned about as they are down FOUR linebackers, which could mean trouble facing sensational Auburn RB Kerryon Johnson. But Nick Saban recruits so damn well that this is the only program in America that can successfully endure such attrition. Offensively, Bama is far more balance and dynamic than Georgia, which I believe will be the key to this game. Remember that UGA had a true frosh starting QB on the road. Alabama leads the SEC in rushing yards (270.3 per game), yards per carry (6.03) and rushing touchdowns (35) and QB Jalen Hurts is a tremendous dual threat. Auburn has some injuries on the defensive side of the ball as well and, to me, so many people are thinking upset here that I feel it's best to go on the other side w/ the most proven commodity in the sport. All but two Bama wins this year have been by double digits and one that wasn't was a game they allowed a TD in the final minute. 8* Alabama

8* Ohio State (12:00 ET): One of these years, Jim Harbaugh is actually going to beat Ohio State. It just won't be this year. I'm still bullish on Harbaugh in Ann Arbor, but this clearly wasn't going to be his year as he brought back the least experienced team in the country and has had to cycle through three quarterbacks due to a combination of injury and ineptitude. There were some metrics that suggested a better season could take place for Michigan, but the bottom line is that they always seem to suffer one upset (Michigan State this year) and never win as an underdog. Last week's somewhat sad showing in Madison (lost 24-10 to Wisconsin) dropped Harbaugh to 0-5 SU as a 'dog at his alma mater and he's covered the spread in just one of those games. Ohio State would be favored over every team in the country not named Alabama and is the play here.

The Buckeyes come in ranked #9 in the latest CFP Rankings, but still have a shot at making the playoff if everything breaks right for them. A number of teams ahead of them are going to lose in the next two weeks, so if they win here and next week's Big 10 Championship Game against Wisconsin, there could be an argument for them to be in the top four. While I view them as a top four team on paper, it will be hard for me to buy an argument considering they were blown out twice - by Oklahoma (at home) and Iowa (ouch!). But looking at the raw numbers, you'll find a team that has outscored its Big 10 foes by an amazing 227 points (Wisconsin #2 at +133) and outgained them by an average of 280 yards per game. They've scored 48 or more points SEVEN times in 2017. For the sake of comparison, Michigan has yet to top 36 points in any game this season.

The Wolverines enter this game likely having to start John O'Korn at QB, which is too bad because redshirt freshman Brandon Peters was playing well before being knocked out of last week's game. Tests did come back negative for Peters, so he could conceivably play here, but how effective would he be? Original starter Wilton Speight was knocked out of the Purdue game back in September and hasn't played since. Michigan has a great defense (#9 in efficiency), but Ohio State isn't far behind (#14) and the gap on the other side of the ball is so great that it really doesn't matter. Of course, the Buckeyes have won 12 of the past 13 meetings, including all five under Urban Meyer. In fact, the lone loss to Michigan in those L13 seasons came in the year w/ interim Luke Fickell at the helm. Look for OSU to roll. 8* Ohio State

10* Under Grizzlies/Nuggets (9:05 ET): Memphis is in a really bad way right now as they're 0 for 6 - both SU and ATS - their last six games overall, the last four all coming w/o the services of PG Mike Conley, who is going to be out for an indefinite period of time. Denver, meanwhile, was blown out (by 30) in its last game (by Houston). So we have a pair of Western Conference teams "trying to pick up the pieces" here and the Nuggets have their own injury (Paul Milsap) that they're currently dealing with. (Although, they have the depth at the PF position to potentially overcome it). The Nuggets do average 113 points per game here at home, but that alone will NOT be enough to get this game Over the total. I'm on the Under here as the Grizzlies have not topped 94 pts in any of their three previous games.

In fact, I played against the Grizz Wednesday night, when they hosted lowly Dallas. I took the points and it turned out I didn't even need them as the Mavs won outright, 95-94 as six-point pups. It was a brutal loss as Harrison Barnes' banked in a 30-footer at the buzzer for the Dallas win. Initially, Memphis had led by as many as 18 in the 1H before getting outscored 35-16 in the third quarter. Turning the ball over 17 times certainly didn't help and that number can be directly attributed to Conley's absence. This is Memphis' first six-game losing streak since April of 2016. They scored just 38 pts in the second half vs. Dallas. Shooting 45.7% for the game was actually a drastic improvement from the previous two games when they were below 38%. 

I mentioned earlier that Denver has the depth to fight through the Milsap injury, but losing a player averaging 15.3 points, 6.2 rebounds and 3.1 assists will definitely have a negative effect. Of course, Milsap alone couldn't have made up the difference in Wednesday's 125-95 beatdown at the hands of Houston either. The team shot only 40.2% from the field in that defeat. That leads me to bring up something that may be in the Grizzlies' favor here and that's the fact they've held their previous two opponents to 39.8% and 42.9% shooting respectively. The Under is 7-1 for them when facing winning teams and 6-2 when they're listed as the underdog. Each of the L3 games have gone Under. With both teams adjusting to life w/o a key player, I see the likelihood of some pretty ugly offensive efforts being likely here. 10* Under Grizzlies/Nuggets

10* Youngstown State (9:00 ET): With all the Holiday Tournaments going on around the country, this game is certainly likely to be off most bettors' radar, but I think it offers some solid value on the dog. Youngstown State may be only 2-2 SU, but they've scored at least 78 pts in every game, so getting some help from the oddsmakers is a nice luxury to have. Now, the Penguins have played two lined game thus far, neither working out, even though they were the dog in both. That's because they allowed over 100 pts to both Kent and Canisius. Their two wins came at the expense of Franciscan University and Westminster (PA). But it's not as if Northern Colorado is any "great shakes" as they've twice lost by double digits, only to come back and win games at Pepperdine (by two) and over non-board team Northern New Mexico. This is a neutral site game, played in Sioux Falls as part of the Sanford Pentagon Showcase. I'll take the points.

Not much is being expected from YSU this season. They finished 8th in the 10-team Horizon League last season and that's where they are being pegged again this season. They have a 1st year HC in Jerrod Calhoun, who found success at D-II Fairmont State, who he led to the title game last season. Calhoun replaces Jerry Slocum, who retired after 12 seasons on the job. There is some talent here, notably senior Cameron Morse, a two-time All-Horizon League selection. Sophomore Braun Hartfield, a Cleveland-area native, scored a career-high 31 pts in the loss to Canisius last week. Freshman Garrett Covington is off to a nice start as he scored 18 pts (career-high) in the last game and is shooting 72% from the field. He also had seven steals in the team's first win of the year. 

Northern Colorado is off a 39-point win, which I guess is why they are favored here, but I'm not sure they deserve to be. The Big Sky rep is just 4-10 ATS when laying points the previous three seasons. The Bears finished towards the bottom of the Big Sky last season. They don't shoot the ball particularly well (40.3 FG%), including 26.9% from three-point range. They easily could be 1-3 SU entering this game. 10* Youngstown State

8* NY Rangers (7:05 ET): It's a "thin line" between the top and bottom of the Metro this season, which is a stark contrast to last season when the division was incredibly top-heavy (four teams w/ 100+ points). The Rangers find themselves near the middle w/ 24 points, though things weren't necessarily looking as good until they won their last two games. Those wins, over Ottawa and Carolina, came by a combined score of 9-1. The Blueshirts have actually now won 8 of their last 10 w/ both losses coming on the road. Tonight they host Detroit, who has lost B2B games, both at home (allowed 10 goals in the process). It would appear as if we have two teams trending in opposite directions here. I'll take the one in better form, obviously. 

Detroit finished last season w/ only 79 points, putting them near the bottom in the Atlantic. Quite frankly, things could have been a lot worse were it not for a stunning 9-0 record in shootouts! The team was a perfect 11-0 in shootouts the L2 seasons, before dropping one to Columbus back on 11.11. Following wins over Calgary and Buffalo, the Red Wings finished their five-game homestand w/ losses to the Avs and Oilers. The former came in OT while they were dominated by the Oilers, 6-2 on Wednesday. The Wings managed only 46 shots total in the two games, which typically won't get it done. Nor will goaltender Jimmy Howard's .894 save percentage his L4 starts. He's allowed eight goals on the last 58 shots he's seen, including four on 19 shots vs. Edmonton before being pulled. 

Meanwhile, the Rangers have won seven straight at home and outscored the opposition by a 2:1 margin (22-11) during their 8-2 run. Considering the offense we've seen from them (7th in goals per game), the Rangers should be able to beat Howard multiple times tonight. Their goaltending had been a disappointment early on, but Henrik Lundqvist appears to have regained usual form w/ a superb .946 save percentage his L4 outings. 8* NY Rangers

8* South Florida (3:30 ET): Coming into the year, we all thought this regular season finale would be USF's shot at clinching a spot in the AAC Championship Game and sure enough, that's the case. However, no one could have envisioned that they'd be a double-digit DOG to UCF, who is unbeaten and vying to be the "Group of Five" representative in a "New Year's Six Bowl." (In all likelihood, whomever wins the AAC will be that rep). Memphis (also ranked) is waiting in the wings to play the winner of this game next week. Tip your cap to the job done at Central Florida by Scott Frost, who likely lands himself a higher paying job (Nebraska?) for next season. However, let's not discredit what Charlie Strong has done up the road in Tampa. USF actually had the "bullseye" on them at the start of the year as they were favored to run the table and be in the position UCF is currently in. The Bulls did lose once, to Houston (by four), but that's it. Underdogs for the 1st time in 2017, I'll take them plus the points in this de fact AAC East Championship Game. 

South Florida's lone loss saw them outgain Houston 462-397 and that yardage edge was even greater before they gave up a 9-play, 49-yard drive in the final two minutes to lose 28-24 (were 10.5-pt favorites). Save for that game, it's pretty much been "smooth sailing" for the Bulls. Eight of their 10 wins have come by double digits. Yet, just to illustrate how much the market has "feared" them, they actually come into this game on a 4-game ATS losing streak. Last week saw them  "slip by" Tulsa 27-20, though they actually spent a good deal of the game up double digits. Keep an eye on QB Quinton Flowers, who is every bit the equal of his UCF counterpart McKenzie Milton (#2 in FBS pass efficiency), if not superior. Flowers is 2nd in the nation in QBR (trailing only Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield) and is the 7th player in FBS history to have a career w/ 7,000+ yds passing and 3,000+ yds rushing. 

UCF has outscored its seven AAC opponents by 165 points while USF is at +122. That's a somewhat negligible difference. Even w/ the unbeaten record and playing in Orlando, I just don't see why the Golden Knights are favored by this many points. It is USF that actually has a slight edge on defense as they rank #1 in the conference in both points (19.9) and yards (323.5) per game allowed while UCF is #2 in both categories (20.5, 373.6). UCF has hardly had the most challenging schedule and got a clear break earlier in the year, hosting Memphis in a rescheduled date (Hurricane Irma). Here, it is USF w/ a pretty clear scheduling advantage. They get two extra days to prepare as they last played Thursday while UCF was at Temple Saturday. The Bulls are 6-2 SU in the eight all-time meetings, including a 48-31 win and cover (as 10-pt chalk) LY. 8* South Florida

8* Portland (12:05 ET): Coming into the season, I considered seven teams to be "locks" for the postseason in the Western Conference: Golden St, Houston, San Antonio, OKC, Minnesota, Denver and the Clippers. Thus far, Portland has certainly done an admirable job of making me re-think their exclusion from the list. The Blazers come into Friday w/ a per game point differential (+4.2) that exceeds all but five teams in the league right now and that quintet consists mostly of the heavyweights you'd think it would (Warriors, Rockets, Celtics). However, all is not necessarily well in the Pacific Northwest as the team is looking to bounce back from an ugly 20-point loss in Philadelphia the other night. A visit to Brooklyn should theoretically get them back on track. Lay the short number. 

Brooklyn isn't horrible this season, which for them is an improvement. They just got done playing the two NBA Finalists from each of the L3 seasons (Warriors, Cavs) and more than held their own, covering each game. They're actually riding a 3-game ATS win streak coming into today. They engaged in a shootout w/ Cleveland, losing 119-109, but the game was much closer than that most of the way. It wasn't until LeBron James "went off" in the 4Q that the Cavs finally pulled away. Something to note about this Nets team is that they are playing at the fastest pace in the entire league right now. Aside from Golden State, most of the teams at the top of that list aren't very good as the fast pace has a negative effect on the defensive end. Sure enough, the Nets rank 27th in defensive efficiency.

It can't be overstated how massive an edge Portland has defensively in this matchup. They join Boston and Oklahoma City as the only three teams in the league that are currently allowing fewer than one point per possession (#2 in def efficiency). In more "traditional terms," they allow just 97.4 points per game (only Boston allowing less). For the sake of comparison, Brooklyn is allowing 114.2 PPG, second MOST in the league. That 17-point difference in points allowed per game looms large here. With Portland looking to bounce back from an ugly defeat, I look for them to put the clamps down this afternoon. They haven't allowed more than 101 points in a game since November 2nd. Opponents have shot 43.3% or worse from the floor in six of the last seven games. 8* Portland

10* Over Baylor/TCU (12:00 ET): These two Texas rivals are in VERY different places right now. Baylor HC Matt Rhule inherited a complete mess, left over from the Art Briles' regime. A Bears team that won 10+ games four times from 2011-2015 dropped to 7-6 SU last year, a direct result of Briles' misdeeds. We knew it would be "tough sledding" for Rhule in year one, but I don't think that anyone Waco foresaw a 1-10 record w/ ZERO Big 12 victories. Yet that's the reality entering this, their season finale. Meanwhile, coming off their own down year (6-7 SU in '16), TCU was on my shortlist for Most Improved Teams in the country (they were my top win total pick at Over 7.5) and sure enough, Gary Patterson's Horned Frogs have delivered w/ a 9-2 SU record. A win Friday and they would earn a rematch w/ Oklahoma in the Big X11 Championship Game (back this year!) next week.

Given what's at stake for TCU and the state of Baylor, the pointspread is predictably high here. It actually may not even be high enough as according to my own power rankings, there are at least couple points of value w/ the Horned Frogs here. But even though I cashed Oklahoma last week minus a huge number, I typically don't like laying this many points and won't in this situation. If there's one commonality these teams share (besides both hailing from Texas), it's that they've been going Under a lot in Big XII play. TCU, thanks to not allowing a single second half TD in the last five games, has gone Under in seven straight games. Baylor is riding a four-game Under streak. That confluence has created a situation here where the O/U line is probably a lot lower than it ought to be and thus Over is going to be my play Friday as TCU should have no problems scoring here and could possibly go Over the total by themselves.

Playing w/o QB Kenny Hill and RB Darius Anderson (out for year), the Horned Frogs beat Texas Tech 27-3 last week in Lubbock. Despite the lopsided victory, they were actually outgained as they threw for only 85 yards. Of course, when you allow only three points, you don't need to pass much. The offense did run for 200+ yards, which is impressive. Here in Ft. Worth, TCU averages 43.4 PPG for the season, so like I said earlier, they are more than capable of sending this game Over, almost by themselves. HC Patterson has said that Hill is probable to play. Teams are relishing the opportuniity to beat up downtrodden Baylor right now and last year saw the Horned Frogs hang 62 on them in Waco. The Baylor defense is allowing over 450 YPG for the season. As for getting "any help" from the Baylor offense, I suspect that when the game inevitably gets out of reach late, there will be opportunities for them to score. They do come in averaging 24.5 points per game. 10* Over Baylor/TCU

8* Over Giants/Redskins (8:25 ET): The Giants have just two wins this year, but both came as double digit dogs against an AFC West opponent (Denver, KC). The latest came last week, 12-9 over the Chiefs in overtime (upset of the year?). Sadly, this week's opponent is not a DD favorite nor is it an AFC West team. It is a familiar foe though, that being NFC East rival Washington, who itself is trying to pick up the pieces following losses in four of the last five games. They do own wins over the Rams and Seahawks (both on the road!) and should have beaten New Orleans LW, only to wilt in the final minutes of regulation and lose in OT. (So both teams are coming off OT games and playing on a short week). My "gut" says Washington wins here, but I don't want to lay points w/ a team that is only 1-4 ATS at home. Therefore, we turn to the total. 

It's been well-established that the Giants' defense is nowhere close to the unit that we saw last season. I can't say that I'm surprised. They made the quantum leap from 30th to 2nd in DVOA last season and thus regression was all but inevitable. Aside from the two wins, they've allowed 24 or more points in six of the seven losses, Week 1 being the exception. Remember that two weeks ago, they allowed 476 yards and 31 points to the previously winless 49ers. Last week, Big Blue was the beneficiary of some windy conditions as the Chiefs still elected to throw the ball roughly 60% of the time, playing right into the underdog's hands (good ol' Andy Reid). Quite frankly, this Giants' defense is lucky to "only" be allowing 24.7 points per game this year as they are 31st in yards allowed.

Washington's last two games have seen both they and the opponent score 30 or more points. Obviously, both games went Over. Last week was a brutal loss as they lost 34-31 to the Saints in overtime after taking a 31-16 lead w/ just over six minutes to go in the fourth quarter. They gave up both TD's in the final three minutes of regulation (and a 2-pt conversion) and wound up allowing 535 total yds of offense. There is hope here for the beleaguered Giants offense as the 'Skins are 31st in scoring defense at 26.6 PPG allowed. Both teams are very banged up right now (on both sides of the ball), but I see this one going Over the total. 8* Over Giants/Redskins

10* Mississippi (7:30 ET): Mississippi State survived last week in what was a horrendous spot for them, one week removed from a near upset of #1 Alabama and they had this, their rivalry game, on deck (on a short week no less). Dan Mullen's team came from 14-0 down to beat Arkansas, on the road, 28-21 (though they failed to cover as 2 TD favorites). As for rival Ole Miss, they were not as fortunate last weekend, losing to Texas A&M 31-24 in the Oxford finale (shutout in the 2nd half!). Neither team has anything to play for here (Ole Miss bowl ineligible), but you can throw the records out in a rivalry game (the rare cliche that holds true!), thus taking the points is usually a good idea. That's what I'll do here as it's a really big number. 

Tensions are going to be very high Thanksgiving night in Starkville. Needless to say, this game will not be reminiscent of the Pilgrims and Native Americans sitting down for dinner. This rivalry has taken on a really nasty tone w/ it being a Miss State beat writer that was responsible for former, disgraced Ole Miss HC Hugh Freeze's firing when he uncovered Freeze was calling an escort service. So don't think the Rebels won't be trying here. Furthermore, there is the embarrassment left over from last season when the Bulldogs came to Oxford and beat them 55-20 as 10-point underdogs. That did result in the Rebels not making a bowl. Though an injury to QB Shea Patterson in essence "wrecked" their season, I repeat, the underdog is going to be motivated here. It's a rivalry game and a nasty one at that.

Miss State is going to go a decent bowl game and could win 9+ games for a third time in four seasons. But that's pretty much their fate right there. Yes, they'll be motivated to beat their rival as well. But, the margin the oddsmakers are calling for here is the hang up for me. Yes, it's true that when the Bulldogs win, they have typically won big. But it's quite the swing to see them go from 10-pt dogs to more than a two score favorite in one year's time against the same opponent. They'd lost the previous two years and came in ranked both times. Too many things can happen here that would prevent MSU from covering. At the very worst, I expect the backdoor to be open late in the game. 10* Mississippi

8* Dallas (4:25 ET): We've certainly seen a significant market shift on the Cowboys as over the L2 weeks they've been blown out by both the Falcons and Eagles. While so much attention is being paid to the absence of RB Ezekiel Elliott, it is actually the absences of LT Tyron Smith and LB Sean Lee that are really killing the team. In the case of the latter, the defense is allowing 2.3 yards more per rush w/ him off the field and has forced eight fewer turnovers. Sadly, he'll again be out here w/ this being a short week. Smith is listed as questionable currently. So why take a chance on America's Team on Turkey Day? Well, for starters, this line opened at -4. So there's some definite value here. Also, the Chargers aren't the Falcons or Eagles. I'll go w/ the value play here. 

All of a sudden, based on one win and the lack of depth in the AFC, the Chargers are being discussed as a potential playoff team (despite a 4-6 SU record). Look; no one has driven the Bolts' bandwagon harder in the last couple seasons. But I'm sick of getting burned. If you think now is a curious time NOT to be on them, then consider LW's 54-24 win was a byproduct of what turned out to be the most egregious NFL coaching decision in recent memory, that being Buffalo HC Sean McDermott electing to start Nathan Peterman, who turned in simply the worst performance by an NFL QB that I've seen in some time. As bad as Dallas has looked the L2 weeks, QB Dak Prescott is NOT going to throw 5 INT's in 15 attempts in one half of play. No way. 

Look for this game to be decided in the trenches. If Smith could play, it would be a HUGE boost for the Cowboys and their running game. Los Angeles ranks dead last in the league, giving up a ghastly 139 YPG on 4.9 yards per carry. Dallas is more than capable of running the ball w/o Elliott. On defense, the 'Boys should benefit from what remains a very predictable Chargers' offense that runs far too often in obvious situations. Prior to last week, LA had topped 21 pts in a game only twice. It's a pretty big leap to have this team now favored on the road. Almost without fail, their games end up being close (seven decided by one score). This will only be the fourth time they have been favored this season and the first on the road. As a favorite of any kind, the Chargers are just 5-10 ATS the L3 seasons, losing nine of those games outright. 8* Dallas

10* Minnesota (12:35 ET): The injury to Aaron Rodgers all but ended Green Bay's chances of winning the NFC North this year, thereby leaving a huge void that one of the other three teams had to fill. Enter the Minnesota Vikings, who have overcome their own injuries to go 8-2 SU and take a commanding lead in the division. They last lost in Week 4 (more on that in a moment) and since then, it's been six consecutive wins and covers, the latest being a very impressive 24-7 victory over the similarly surprising Rams. But the Purple People Eaters are by no means a "lock" to win the NFC North as we approach Thanksgiving. That's because the last team to beat them, Detroit, is "hot on their heels." Currently two games back, the Lions could deal a huge blow to the Vikings by sweeping the season series for a second consecutive year. They beat them LY on Thanksgiving as well, making this all the more a revenge spot for Minnesota. I'll lay the short number.

I readily admit that Detroit is a team that I expected to regress in 2017. That's because last year's 9-7 SU record did not include a single victory over a fellow playoff team and also required a NFL single-season record EIGHT fourth quarter comebacks! Speaking of single-season records, last year's Lions defense happened to allow the highest completion percentage in a season in league history! The team hasn't had quite the good fortune in close games this season, but did pull one out last week, 27-24 over the Chicago Bears. That game saw the Lions get outgained (398-352) and rally back from an early 10-0 deficit. The always reliable Matt Prater kicked a 52-yard FG w/ 1:35 remaining for the win, though the team had to survive a missed FG attempt by Chicago as time expired. While three straight wins sounds impressive, note the QB's that the Lions have beaten are: Brett Hundley, DeShone Kizer and Mitchell Trubisky, two rookies and a first-year starter.

Minnesota's season was thought to be toast when they had to turn to veteran journeyman Case Keenum, especially when RB Dalvin Cook was also lost for the year. But Keenum is having himself a career year. He's completed 68.2% of his passes over the L3 weeks. The defense also deserves a ton of credit, especially for the job it did against the Rams last week, holding them to only 254 yards, which is well below what they had been averaging. For the year, this Vikings' D ranks 5th in yards and 4th in points allowed. Despite losing to Detroit three straight times, Mike Zimmer's defense has allowed just four touchdowns in those games. That Week 4 meeting, a 14-7 loss, is when Cook was lost for the year and it was just Keenum's third start. Minnesota had the slight edge in total yards, but was -3 in turnovers. Zimmer is an incredible 30-13 ATS since taking over as the HC here and I look for his team to end the Lions' four-year win streak on Thanksgiving. 10* Minnesota

8* Over Warriors/Thunder (8:05 ET): What a matchup we have here, the night before Thanksgiving, as the Warriors head to OKC to take on the Thunder. The game will be on ESPN. After a slow start to the season (by their lofty standard), Golden State has ascended to its usual spot atop the league. Boston may have a better record, but no one is outscoring its opponents by a larger margin than the Dubs (at +10.4 PPG) or has a better net efficiency rating. Not surprising is that the two-time NBA Champs lead the league in scoring (117.9 PPG) at the top efficiency playing at a top five pace. OKC has underachieved thus far as they have a losing record (7-9 SU) despite outscoring their foes by a healthy 4.6 points per game. Their defensive efficiency has been very good, but will be tested (severely) here. I like the Over.

Golden State has failed to cover its last four games. They opened this four-game road trip w/ a loss in Boston last Thursday, getting held to only 88 pts in a heavily-hyped matchup. They've since followed w/ wins over Philadelphia and Brooklyn, averaging 121 PPG. Both games easily went Over as they allowed 116 and 111 points. They're allowing 107.5 PPG, which obviously makes it hard to cover, another reason I'm not interested in laying the points here. The Dubs' defense will most certainly be tested tonight as OKC's own scoring average jumps to 107.1 PPG here at home (103.2 overall). Of course, GSW has more than enough firepower to counter whether or not Kevin Durant (sprained ankle) plays or not. Incredibly, they are operating at a higher efficiency than last season by about two points per 100 possessions. They lead the league in fast break scoring - by more than nine points per game over the next best team!

Oklahoma City's big issue this year has been close games. They are 0-8 SU in contests decided by three points or less. They may rank third overall in defensive efficiency, but they tend to fall apart on that end of the floor late in games. Their defensive efficiency in the 4Q ranks 24th and in the "clutch," they are allowing 1.47 points per possession, which would rank dead last in the league over the last 20 seasons. So again, whether or not they have Durant, Golden State should have no issues scoring here (they still have Curry, Thompson and Green). The Thunder have their own "Big 3" - Westbrook, George and Anthony - all of whom average more than 20 PPG. Golden State is 5-1 Over this season in road games if the O/U line is 220 pts or higher. 8* Over Warriors/Thunder

10* Dallas (8:05 ET): At 3-15, the Mavs currently have the worst straight up record in the league. But I don't think that they're the worst team as there's a handful of teams w/ worse scoring differentials and efficiency numbers. While I by no means expect this team to make any kind of surge into contention, I do think we're now at a point where there will be some value in grabbing them plus the points. Tonight, they face a Memphis team that not only has a losing straight up record at home (4-5), but also a 2-6 ATS mark when favored. So now seems like an ideal time to test the strategy, especially w/ the Grizzlies having lost their last five in a row - SU and ATS! 

The reason for Memphis' slide is pretty simple. It directly coincides w/ the loss of PG Mike Conley to an Achilles injury, which figures to keep him out of the lineup for an indefinite period of time. The losing streak actually began before Conley got hurt, but in the three games (so far) w/o him, the team has averaged just 96 PPG and every loss has been at home. The shooting numbers were pretty ugly against both Houston and Portland as they went just 37.2% from the field overall, including 15 for 57 from three-point range. They were also dominated on the glass by Portland two nights ago, a game in which the Grizz fell apart late. Clearly, they really miss Conley. 

Dallas has experienced some hard-luck losses of late, but none moreso than what happened on Monday as they blew a 13-pt fourth quarter lead to Boston and lost in OT. Remember that Celtics team has now won 16 straight games. The Mavs have also suffered close losses to Cleveland and San Antonio. They've beaten teams such as Washington and Milwaukee this year, the latter by 32 on Saturday. They've also split two games against Memphis and that was when the Grizzlies still had Conley in the lineup. Here in Memphis, they lost by only five and that was w/ a -10 difference in FT attempts and shooting only 34.0% from the field. Led by rookie Dennis Smith Jr (14.1 PPG), I look for the Mavs to possibly pull the outright upset tonight. Take the points. 10* Dallas

8* Minnesota (7:05 ET): I expected the Wild to take a bit of a step back this season, but not all the way down to last place in the Central, which is where they currently reside (tied w/ Colorado at 21 pts). But besides St. Louis, it's a very thin line between the top and the bottom and in the Western Conference right now and even two points can make a huge difference in a team's standing. The bottom line is that Minnesota has outscored the opposition (by 1 goal) this season and would be far better positioned if not for an 0-3 mark in games they went to OT or a shootout. Tonight, they host a Buffalo team that has played as poorly as any in the league so far. This should be an easy two points. 

The Sabres only wish that I could make the claim that they are an average team like the Wild. Their YTD goal differential (-26) is the worst in the Eastern Conference as they've lost six in a row, four of those coming by multiple goals. They last won a game on November 7th and rank dead last in the league in goals per game (2.3) and 28th in goals allowed (3.5). Their power plays also ranks 30th at 14.9%. Only one time this season has this team posted B2B victories. They did very nearly pull off an improbable comeback Monday vs. Columbus (trailed 3-0 entering third period), but still fell a goal short. They are 2-6 SU against the Western Conference this year. 

Minnesota has dropped B2B games itself, the last one in overtime against surprising New Jersey. This has been a very streaky team thus far in 2017 as prior to the B2B losses, they'd won four in a row including three shutouts, all of which were posted by Devan Dubnyk, who will be back between the pipes tonight. Dubnyk is the driving force behind the Wild ranking 8th in the league in goals allowed. It was a frustrating loss Monday to the Devils as not only did the Wild score multiple times on the power play, but they also had a commanding 36-25 edge in shots on goal. Though a road game, Buffalo is an opponent you want to see on the schedule right now and I look for the Wild to take advantage. 8* Minnesota

8* Providence (7:00 ET): Fresh off taking the 2K Classic in Madison Square Garden, Providence returns home to host mid-major "power" Belmont Wednesday night. The Friars aren't in the Top 25 currently, but are in the "Others Receiving Votes" category as their only loss so far was to #15 Minnesota. In MSG, they beat Washington and St. Louis, the latter by 27 on Friday (90-63) thanks to an incredible shooting display of 62.0% overall, including 9 of 10 from three-point range! And that Washington win is notable b/c the Huskies are the only team to have beaten tonight's opponent this season. Belmont has won four straight since losing their season opener, but the last two were far from impressive, and I don't think this line is nearly high enough. 

Providence was picked to finish fourth in the Big East this season and so far they've shown why they can be a player in that tough league. This is an excellent shooting team (52.3% overall) that even knocked down 79.2% of its FT's against St. Louis. That last game saw the Friars lead by as many as 31 as they assisted on 21 of their 31 made field goals. Consider they did that against a defense that had been allowing just 55.7 PPG previously. A big difference between this team and previous editions under HC Ed Cooley is the depth. Ten players played at least 15 minutes against SLU and only two are averaging more than 30 per game for the season.The Friars have won 29 of their last 37 home games.

Belmont is again favored to take the Ohio Valley Conference this season, but tonight's game is a big step up in class for them after facing patsies Houston Baptist and Seattle the L2 games. Despite scoring 90+ both games, the Bruins went 0-2 ATS and even barely escaped Houston Baptist, winning by just five. It was also a close game into the 2H vs. Seattle. Now previously, they did beat a pair of NCAA Tournament teams from LY (Vanderbilt and Middle Tennessee), so they've shown they are capable of stepping up. But they did lose to Washington (as two-point road favorites), who lost handily to Providence. The fact the Bruins were favored in Seattle does say something about the respect this team carries, but losing on the road was also telling. As an underdog, Belmont has dropped 12 of 17 the L3 seasons. 8* Providence

8* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): Nobody (save for Lakers' diehards) is expecting much from either of these two sides this season, but at least the Lakers are giving us something this year. And what's most surprising of all is that what they are giving us - is defense! Last year, Luke Walton's team ranked dead last in the league in defensive efficiency, but this year they've risen to a shocking fourth (were as high as third), trailing only Boston, Portland and Oklahoma City! As a result, they're a somewhat respectable 7-10 SU after Sunday's surprise win in Denver. But as you can tell from the 127-109 final, that victory was keyed by the offense, specifically Lonzo Ball, who actually shot well (shocking!) and turned in his second-career triple double. I'm going to lay the points here.

Many believe Chicago is going to be the worst team in the league this year. They're deliberately tanking, but I personally think that there are a few teams that will end up w/ worse records. Currently, there are three teams w/ worse records than the Bulls - Atlanta, Sacramento and Dallas - but no team in the Eastern Conference is even close to their -9.4 per game point differential. Last time out, they lost by eight at Phoenix, a significantly worse team than the Lakers. I actually played against the Bulls in that spot, noting their already hideous road play, which is seeing them get outscored by 9.1 PPG. The loss Sunday dropped them to 1-7 SU outside the Windy City. 

This could be a somewhat low-scoring game as it's a matchup of the 28th (Lakers) and 30th (Bulls) ranked teams in offensive efficiency. That aforementioned Lakers defense likely comes in handy here against the second worst offensive team (in terms of points per game) in all of basketball. Also, the Lakers play at a significantly faster pace than the Bulls, who are bottom six in defensive efficiency. So there's a significant edge on one end of the court for the home team as Chicago is giving up 109.1 PPG on the road. Homecourt and a big defensive edge are the keys here for LA and I think that - moving forward - Ball will start to shoot the ball much better. 8* LA Lakers

10* Davidson (10:00 ET): This is a non-Holiday Tournament matchup on the Tuesday slate, which is the exception and not the rule. It features a Nevada team that has been a covering machine the last several seasons (47-25 ATS L72) including a perfect 4-0 to start 2017. But tonight they'll host a Davidson team that is better rested and also topped 100 pts in both of its games thus far. That has me thinking now would be an appropriate time to fade the Wolfpack. In what figures to be a high-scoring game, taking the points is the way to go here. 

Expect plenty of fireworks in this game. Davidson doesn't just lead the country in three-point field goals made per game (19.5), they average FOUR more makes per game than the second-best team! They have four shooters who are a threat from behind the arc. One of them, Peyton Aldridge, was called the "Larry Bird of the Atlantic 10" by Nevada HC Eric Musselman. Another, Kellan Grady, Musslman called the "best freshman in the entire country." Those two have combined to average more than 50 pts for the Wildcats. The team won its season opener, 110-62 over Charleston Southern, thanks to a school record 26 made three-pointers (on 53 attempts). Grady made seven of those in his debut. The Wildcats turned the ball over only once the entire game and led 24-0 at one point. That was followed w/ a 108-81 win over UNC Wilmington. Aldridge scored a career-high 37 pts in that one. Simply put, this team is playing too well right now to be getting this many points. 

While Davidson has been off for a full week, Nevada has had to play twice in the previous six days, both times on the road. They did win each, over Pacific and Santa Clara (two WCC teams), by double digits. Santa Clara, they routed by 30, 93-63. Pacific was a closer game, 89-74, though the Wolfpack led comfortably throughout. Ironically, they achieved a school record in three-pointers in that game w/ 17. These teams seem pretty similar to me, but Davidson is better at making three's and turns the ball over less. Those could very well be the keys here to an outright win, or staying within the number at the very least. Then there is the rest factor. Davidson has won each of the last three times it has played w/ five or six days' rest. 10* Davidson

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): A number of "bad" teams from last season surprised me by getting off to decent starts this year. One of those is Vancouver, who was projected by many (myself included) to finish near the bottom of the league's standings. The Canucks' 21 points are more than respectable right now, especially when you consider they are 9-8 SU in regulation thus far. But, somewhat predictably, we have begun to see them falter w/ losses in four of the last five games. The most recent one came Saturday, in overtime, at home vs. St. Louis. Making that defeat particularly painful is that they blew a 3-1 lead. Now it's time to embark on a six-game road trip out East and I don't see this going very well for the Canucks. Go against them here. 

The Flyers currently find themselves at the bottom of the Metro thanks to a four-game losing streak. However, they have scored the same number of goals (56) as their opponents have this season. They too enter in off an OT loss, theirs coming here at home vs. Calgary Saturday night. They had a 39-31 edge in shots and led 3-1 after one period. But it still wasn't enough. The parallels w/ Vancouver continue as we find that Philly has had no luck in OT/shootouts this season, going 1-4 SU when a game goes into extra time. Their last two losses have both come past regulation as they fell in Winnipeg last Thursday in a SO. Though top defenseman Radko Gudas will be suspended for the next nine games, I'm not overly concerned about the Flyers giving up many goals tonight. They rank 8th in the league on that side of the ledger while Vancouver is just 26th in goals per game and 23rd on the power play.

What really surprises me here is that the Canucks have won six of their first nine road games. By the time this trip is over though, I suspect that record will be back below .500. Last year, they went just 12-26-3 SU away from home. A 27-46 SU record against the Eastern Conference (L3 seasons) doesn't exactly inspire a ton of confidence either. Goaltender Jacob Markstrom has a save percentage of only .888 his L4 starts, which is not good. Meanwhile, Philly is expected to go w/ the "rested and ready" Michael Neuvirth between the pipes tonight. He's been off the L6 games, but has a .935 save percentage in his three home starts this season. When on a losing skid of three or more games, the Flyers have gone 13-6 SU the L3 seasons. 8* Philadelphia

10* Ball State (7:00 ET): Ball State is (very) bad, but after having their dreams of bowl eligibilty dashed last week, I have to figure Miami is pretty crushed emotionally. Therefore, I want zero part of laying this kind of big number (on the road, no less) w/ the RedHawks in what is basically a meaningless regular season finale for them. Ball State at least has the motivation of wanting to send it's seniors out w/ a win in the final home game of the season. The Cardinals also have revenge from a one-point loss in Oxford in LY's reg season finale. Miami scored the GW TD w/ just 5:44 to go and Ball State had a chance to answer, but a 90-yard kickoff return was called back due to holding and they lost 21-20 as a touchdown underdog. The situation is MUCH different this year w/ the RedHawks not having anything to play for (were trying to become bowl eligible LY). Thus, I'll grab the big number. 

This entire season has been one giant disappointment for Miami. They came into 2017 being touted as co-favorites (along w/ Ohio) to win the MAC East after winning their final six regular season games a year ago. They were the first team EVER in NCAA history to open 0-6 and close 6-6 (lost bowl to Miss St). But the magic just wasn't there this year. They've suffered four losses by five points or less, the most crushing of which came last week at home to Eastern Michigan, 27-24. The RedHawks defense allowed 454 total yards in the loss. Despite leading at halftime (17-13), the team really had no shot at winning as they trailed by 10 heading into the fourth quarter. They've now covered just one of their previous seven games to fall to 2-9 ATS on the year, tied for the worst mark in the country at the betting window. 

Now let's get some of the ugly stuff out of the way. Ball State has lost its last eight games (0-7 vs. the MAC), all of them by at least 16 points. The closest they've finished to any conference opponent came LW, hosting Buffalo, as they "only" lost 40-24 and actually covered the spread, thereby snapping a six-game ATS losing skid. But if the players have any pride at all, they'll "show up" in this final game in Muncie. I should point out that Miami is 0-2 ATS as a road favorite this year, losing both games outright. 10* Ball State

10* Seattle (8:40 ET): They are "dropping like flies" in the Seahawks secondary right now (no Sherman or Chancellor), but at home I believe that Russell Wilson and company can carry this team to victory. It's a virtually unprecedented price range here on Seattle in their own stadium as it will be the FIRST time since 2012 that we can catch them laying less than two points here. I can only assume that has to do with this injuries in the secondary, but free safety Earl Thomas is still present and he's always been the most important piece there anyway. After suffering a misleading loss two weeks ago to the Redskins (w/o Thomas), Seattle bounced back w/ a win last Thursday against division rival Arizona. The extra time to prepare here is huge and Atlanta is most certainly NOT what they were last season.

This is a really big game in the NFC Playoff Picture where it's looking like 10 wins may be a requirement for the postseason. Seattle is only one-half game back of the Rams (who lost yday) in the NFC West and they currently own the tiebreak due to a head to head win back in Week 5. The Falcons' situation is a bit more precarious. They have two teams ahead of them in the NFC South currently and even a win tonight would not change that. But what it would do is tie them w/ Seattle for the final Wild Card and obviously give them a much needed tiebreak. Atlanta got a big win LW when they whipped another injury-riddled team, Dallas, 27-7 at home. Of course, the Cowboys were w/o Ezekiel Elliott and Tyron Smith. The task will be much tougher here, not only b/c it's on the road, but they'll also have to contend w/ Wilson.

If it were last season, I'd be far more concerned about the injuries in the Seattle secondary facing this Falcons offense. But it's not last season and Matt Ryan and company clearly miss the playcalling of Kyle Shanahan. It just hasn't been the same offensively for LY's NFC Champs and note that they will also be down a key piece, that being RB Donta Freeman. I can't see the Falcons running the ball for much yardage tonight against what is an outstanding Seattle defensive front. But I think that the key will be Wilson, who is having a MVP-type season as only Tom Brady has thrown for more yards. The home field edge is also very big, especially in a night game and I look for the "12th man" to help the Seahawks pull out an important victory. 10* Seattle

10* Over Jets/Predators (8:05 ET): Two Central Division teams clash Monday in Nashville as both the Jets and Preds are trying to catch the first place Blues. Winnipeg has the advantage now, thanks to a four-game win streak, and they are 8-1-1 L10 (27 points overall). Nashville is right behind them (24 points) as they've now won six of seven. So this should be a pretty good game. I'm not entirely sure which team will come out on top tonight, but what we can expect is plenty of scoring. Winnipeg is sixth in the league currently, averaging 3.3 goals per game. Nashville isn't far behind, also averaging more than 3.0 gpg. Both teams have been scoring plenty of late, which their respective success can be equated to, and therefore I'm on the Over here. 

The Jets have scored 4+ goals three times during the current win streak. They tallied five on Saturday when they beat the Devils. All five goals were at even strength too; they didn't even have a single power play opportunity in the game! That should change here as no team in the league is taking more penalties this year than Nashville. Opponents are averaging five power play opportunities per game against the Preds. That's going to be trouble against Winnipeg, who has scored at least one PP goal in six of eight games this month. They may be 1 for their last 10, but still rank 8th in the league when on the man advantage. This team (Jets) has a lot more depth now compared to previous years. 

The Jets are w/o a key defenseman though, Toby Enstrom, which could open the door for more scoring from Nashville. The Preds also managed five goals in their last game, so it's not as if they need the added assistance. In fact, they've scored four or more times in six of their last seven contests and at least three in all seven! As a result, all but one of those games has gone Over the total. When coming off three or more consecutive Overs, the Preds are 22-9 Over the past three seasons, so this is a team accustomed to ripping off long Over streaks. Winnipeg is 2-0 Over this year in road games when the O/U line is 5.5. They are also 9-1 Over the L3 seasons when on a three-game unbeaten streak. 10* Over Jets/Predators

10* Orlando (7:05 ET): Both of these Eastern Conference teams qualify as "pleasant surprises" early this season, although the "pleasantness" for Orlando is certainly starting to "wear off." They've lost four in a row, the most recent defeat being the worst of the season as they were blown out by FORTY here at home by the Jazz. The previous three losses all took place out on the West Coast and two of them came against Golden State and Portland. When the Magic returned home Saturday night, they were actually six-point favorites against the Jazz in a battle of teams whose nicknames do NOT end in "s." Tonight, I will go against the grain and "buy low" on Orlando as they should be highly motivated to erase the ugly memory of what happened two nights ago.

Indiana is in a much different position coming into tonight. They are off an outright win over Miami, as six-point road dogs, by 25 points. That was their third straight victory, two of them upsets (they also won at Memphis). In between, I managed to cash them as a 10* at home over Detroit Friday night. But despite the respective play recently, these teams still grade out rather evenly, which is why I lean towards Orlando at home. They are much better than what they've shown of late while the Pacers are not quite as good. Indiana shot a scorching 60% from the floor against Miami while holding them to 42.2%, a discrepancy they may not get to enjoy the rest of the season. Meanwhile, Orlando is a lock to improve upon their 38.3% shooting from the last game. 

Indiana swept the season series from Orlando last year, going 4-0 SU and ATS, and is 7-1 SU and ATS against them the last two years. But, on paper, the Pacers are not as strong in 2017 as they have been the last couple seasons. Magic HC Frank Vogel called Saturday "our worst game of the season" and it was in fact the franchise's worst home loss ever. So they shouldn't be lacking for motivation tonight. Guard Elfrid Payton has called tonight a "must win for this group." This, to me, is a classic "buy low/sell high" situation as the Pacers aren't as good as they've looked recently while the Magic aren't nearly as bad as what they showed against Utah. 10* Orlando

8* Marquette (2:30 ET): Two "under the radar" programs that have long since stopped being under the radar clash Monday afternoon in Maui. Both VCU and Marquette enter in off home losses, but those were expected considering the competition. VCU fell to to Virginia, 76-67 as 6.5-pt dogs. The "Havoc Defense" we are accustomed seeing from the Rams just wasn't there against their bigger in-state rival as it was them that turned it over a dozen times (only forced five) and they never got closer than three in the second half. Note Virginia is not currently ranked, by the way. The team that Marquette lost to, Purdue, is however. A size disadvantage was too much to overcome for the Golden Eagles as they were crushed in the paint and lost 86-71 (only trailed by 2 at half).

Marquette is patiently waiting for the 6'11" Harry Froiling, a SMU transfer, to become eligible next month. Until then, look for HC Steve Wojciechowski's team to play small ball. Sam Hauser and Markus Howard form an excellent starting backcourt. This team is more than capable of really lighting it up from three-point range w/ the addition of Andrew Rowsey, a UNC Asheville transfer that has 48 pts in two games. Off their first NCAA Tourney appearance in four years last season, the Golden Eagles likely finish as a middle of the pack team in the Big East this year. But that does not necessarily mean they are not a good team. 

VCU is one of only eight programs to make the NCAA Tournament each of the last seven seasons. But they have a new HC this year as Will Wade departed for LSU. Mike Rhoades was an assistant back in the Shaka Smart days, so he knows the program well. Still, the inability to force turnovers against Virginia was certainly disconcerting. Rhoades felt his team was "well prepared" for that UVA game, but if so, that's not a good thing considering the result. This is one of the weaker VCU teams in recent memory and they have lost 13 of the last 15 times (straight up) that they have been an underdog. 8* Marquette

10* Clemson (9:30 ET): Perhaps taking a cue from the school's football team, Clemson basketball is already 4-0 this year w/ three of the wins coming by double digits. The one exception was an 81-76 win over Ohio on Thursday, but they led that game by as many as 15 pts before letting the Bobcats in through the "back door." The Tigers are averaging 82.7 PPG thus far, an impressive number. Tonight finds them as a slight favorite against a Temple team that has played only twice (both wins) and off a minor upset of Auburn on Friday. The Owls' season didn't even begin until Thursday when Clemson had already played twice by that point. I think the additional games played for the Tigers is a big edge here and I'll take them here in Charleston at a great price.

This is the third time that Clemson has reached the Final Game of the Charleston Classic. It's their first time participating in the event since 2013-14, which - not coincidentally marked the last time they started a season at 4-0 SU better. This particular edition of the Tigers is not shy about hoisting three-pointers (45 attempts last two games) and was 10 of 28 from behind the arc in Friday's 78-59 win against overmatched Hofstra. While they have only two starters back from LY, the starting five accounted for 68 of the team's 78 points. Defensively, it was a strong effort as they held the Pride to only 44% shooting from the floor. This event taking place in Charleston is obviously a huge edge for Clemson. 

Temple has now covered 12 of its last 13 November games following a 2-0 ATS start this year. It was a "tale of two halves" against Auburn on Friday as they shot only 33.3% in the first  (led by one at the break), but then 67.9% in the second and pulled away for the 88-74 win as a 2.5-pt dog. The team's first game was against Old Dominion and they won there 76-65 as a short favorite. Interestingly, it was the complete opposite of the Auburn game as they shot 51% in the first half, but only 25% in the second. So they've yet to really play a good game for 40 minutes. This will be the Owls' toughest test to date and it comes at an event where Clemson is 7-1 SU all-time, including a win over Temple in the 2008 Final! The Tigers have held three of their four opponents under 70 pts and that's huge because Temple is just 1-14 SU the L15 times it has not gone over 70 pts. 10* Clemson

8* Dallas (8:30 ET): The Cowboys' first game w/o Ezekiel Elliott went pretty much as poorly as possible, but as most intelligent observers were quick to note, that had as much to do w/ the team being w/ OL Tyron Smith and not just their star running back. It ended up being a 27-7 loss to a desperate Atlanta team on the road and now Dallas is on the "outside looking in" for what is shaping up to be a very tough NFC playoff picture. This week's opponent, the Philadelphia Eagles, is the envy of every team right now as they have the best record in the league (8-1 SU) coming out of their bye. They haven't loss since Week 2 (Chiefs) and have covered six in a row, making them the dreaded "public side" in primetime here. I sided with a similar "square bet" last Sunday night (New England), but not here as the Cowboys at least have a good QB, something you could NOT say LW for the Broncos. Take the points.

Dallas is entering a critical stretch here, one that could largely determine the fate of their season and they'll be w/o Elliott for five more games. The next three, while all at home, come in a 12-day span as the next two weeks they'll be playing on a Thursday (Thanksgiving included obviously). There's a chance they could still be favored the next two weeks. But the value is on taking them this week, off the blowout loss, against the high-flying Eagles. Perhaps the Cowboys' stock will not be lower at any point the rest of this season than it is right now. HC Jason Garrett has done some of his finest work as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 pts, going 9-4 ATS in that role w/ five outright wins.

Like I said, Philly is "flying high" right now, but perhaps they come out a little "rusty" after the bye week? They did hang an impressive 51 points on Denver's defense in their last game, but Wentz completed only 15 pass attempts in that game. Granted, four were for touchdowns, but it still seems highly unlikely that he'll match that kind of efficiency at any other point this season. Looking at the Eagles' schedule thus far, it's hardly been a gauntlet. They did play (and lose to) the Chiefs, but other than them and possibly (probably?) Carolina, I don't see many potential playoff teams on that list. Dallas, of course, might not find itself in the playoffs thanks to the Elliott suspension. But I don't think they deserve to be this decided of a home dog in this critical NFC East matchup. Philadelphia has actually not been a road favorite of more than a field goal in over three seasons. They actually closed as a dog at LA (Chargers) earlier in the year when they won by only two points. 8* Dallas

10* Phoenix (8:05 ET): For the Suns to be favored, you have to know that the opponent is weak and sure enough, in comes Chicago on Sunday. This is not exactly the "marquee matchup" on the NBA slate for Sunday as Phoenix comes in at 6-11 SU (but are being outscored by 9.0 PPG) while Chicago is 3-10 SU (-9.5 PPG). Surprisingly, both are off wins here. The Bulls upset Charlotte on Friday, 123-120 as 6.5-point underdogs, snapping a five-game losing skid. Meanwhile, that same night saw the Suns gain a measure of revenge against the Lakers (who beat them earlier in the week) as they prevailed 122-113 as 7.5-pt road dogs. You could make a case that Phoenix is lucky to have six wins, but the bottom line is this is one of the rare times they come in as the better team. Lay the short number at home.

It was a 40-point fourth quarter for Chicago against Charlotte on Friday that enabled them to get the victory. To call that kind of scoring outburst "rare" from this team would be putting it mildly. The previous game saw them score only 79 points total, including just SEVEN in the first quarter. This is one of only three teams in the league NOT to be averaging 100 PPG as they are at 94.9 PPG, which ranks 29th (only ahead of Sacramento). They are also 29th in efficiency as well, joining the Mavs, Lakers and Kings as the only teams not to be averaging one point per possession. It's not like they're very good defensively either as they rank 20th in efficiency there. On the road this season, they are 1-6 straight up and being outscored by 9.3 points per game. They have not scored 100+ pts in B2B games at any point this season.

Phoenix has actually scored 112 or more points in four of its last five games! Now, defensively, this team leaves a lot to be desired. But as discussed earlier, they don't have a lot to worry about here checking the Bulls. One thing that will be interesting to note during the course of this game is the pace. Phoenix is tied for the fastest pace in the league while Chicago plays at the fourth slowest. If the Suns can "speed the game up," then it's advantage them. The Bulls have lost all five games against the Western Conference this year, by an average of 20 points per game. It's pretty rare that you'll get to go against them laying this few points. Do it! 10* Phoenix

10* Over Islanders/Hurricanes (5:05 ET): The Isles really burned me yday, upsetting the Lightning in an impressive 5-3 victory. Obviously, that's the type of game I'm hoping for today (regardless of who wins!) as I take the Over. As mentioned in yday's analysis, the Isles came into yday ranked #3 in the league in goals per game and are now a lot closer to being #2 after beating Tampa Bay five times on Saturday. But they remain weak in goal (23rd in goals allowed), no matter if it's Thomas Greiss (.898 save percentage on the road) or Jaroslav Halak (.898 overall) starting. Five times in the last six games, either they or the opponents has scored five times themselves. Furthermore, 11 of their previous 13 games have seen seven or more TOTAL goals scored. Take the Over.

Today's opponent, Carolina, is one that NY just faced on Thursday. They beat them, in Brooklyn, 6-4. The 'Canes followed that up by winning last night, 3-1 in Buffalo, but still have issues - namely a 30th ranked power play. That said, they have picked up at least a point in six of their last seven games. The exception was the loss to the Islanders. That game saw NY score three times in the third period, though by that point the game had already sailed Over. Carolina's last three games have all gone Over the total while the Islanders are 8-2 Over their L10 games. 

Similar to the Isles, Carolina has had no issue scoring of late. They're currently on a streak of five consecutive games w/ three or more goals. They are averaging a ton of shots on goal too, 35.6 per game to be exact, which ranks #2 in the league right now. If you're a believer in shot differential being an important metric, then the Hurricanes are potentially a team worth keeping an eye on as their +6.4 shot per game differential ranks #1 in the entire league! They are 9-3 Over in revenge situations. Their goaltending situation is slightly better than that of the Islanders, however, Scott Darling's .905 save percentage for the year is hardly impressive. 10* Over Islanders/Hurricanes

8* Buffalo (4:05 ET): Finally, it appears as if we know who the starting QB's will be in this Week 11 matchup - for both teams. Buffalo HC Sean McDermott has elected to make the somewhat "controversial" decision to bench Tyrod Taylor in favor of the unproven Nathan Peterman. What makes the move a "controversial" one is that the Bills - in most people's eyes - have overachieved at 5-4 SU. But the bottom line is they were 5-2 before ugly losses to the Jets and Saints and those precipitated the change. Something my regulars will note is that I've actually been a buyer on the Bills from the start, in spite of all the moves that make it seem they're not trying to be successful in 2017. I'm holding a ticket on them Over 6.5 wins and would not have expected that could be a winner so soon on the season (still need two). I will again "go against the grain" with them here. 

The Chargers also are dealing with their own QB situation this week. Philip Rivers found himself in the concussion protocol this week and is currently listed as questionable. HC Anthony Lynn stated on Friday that Rivers "looked fine," but he remains uncleared as of press time. Whether or not Rivers plays here will be irrelevant to the selection. The bottom line is that I would not want to lay points w/ the Lightning Bolts right now. If Rivers isn't able to play, it would be a significant downgrade to Kellen Clemens. I've tried and tried to keep believing in this LA team, but at 3-6 SU, they are nearing the point of irrelevancy. Last week marked the latest in the long line of inept losses as they fell to Jacksonville 20-17 (in overtime) despite intercepting Jags' QB Blake Bortles TWICE in the final three minutes of regulation! (You can't make this stuff). Another point I need to make is that the Chargers have the worst homefield "advantage" in the league. They are just 1-3 SU/ATS in their temporary (30,000 capacity) stadium. 

This selection also boils down to the fact that you can't trust the Chargers laying points. They're just 4-10 ATS in that role the L3 seasons w/ NINE outright losses! This year, they've lost outright both times they've been installed as the chalk - to Miami and to Philadelphia (how bad does that line look in retrospect?). Considering almost all of their games end up being close, why would you want to back them as favorites. Six of their nine games this season have been decided by five points or less, four of those losses. Over the L3 seasons, they are 6-21 SU in games decided by a TD or less. With Peterman under center, look for the Bills to run the ball a lot here, which is an effective strategy considering the Chargers own the league's second worst run defense. Rivers or not, don't look for the Bills' defense to be tested much in this game. Los Angeles comes in averaging just 18.6 points per game and has not topped 21 in the last month. Again, not a team I'd want to lay points with right now. I'll put my trust in McDermott in this spot. 8* Buffalo

10* Washington (1:00 ET): Right now, every NFC division is being led by a "surprise" team, whose bandwagons are filling up rapidly. None more so than the Saints, who have won and covered seven straight games (after an 0-2 start), including a 47-10 massacre of the Bills up in Buffalo last week. A team that has leaned almost exclusively on QB Drew Brees and the passing game for a decade has undergone a somewhat radical transformation in 2017. There's now both a running game and some defense being played in the Big Easy and those are the primary reasons New Orleans is leading the NFC South right now. But before we go praising them too much, let's be sure to note the slate of opposing offenses they've faced during this run of theirs has hardly been comprised of world-beaters. Therefore, I see some value here on Washington, who has a solid offense. Take the points.

During this seven-game run, the Saints have beaten Cam Newton and Carolina (34-13) as well as Matt Stafford and Detroit (52-38). But here are the other five QB's they've gotten to face: Jay Cutler (MIA = worst offense in NFL), Brett Hundley (1st career start), Mitchell Trubisky (rookie), Ryan Fitzpatrick (backup for inj Jameis Winston) and Tyrod Taylor (now benched). Say what you will about Redskins' QB Kirk Cousins, but he's no worse than the third best QB the Saints will have seen over the last two months. Looking at Washington's recent schedule, they've had to face Philadelphia, Dallas (w/ Ezekiel Elliott), Seattle and Minnesota. Therefore, I'm not really surprised that they come into this game only having won one of their last four games. Not many teams would go .500 against that gauntlet.

It also appears as if the Redskins are getting healthier. Injuries along the offensive line coincided with the strength in schedule increasing, which is a "double whammy." But that unit is now a bit healthier. Cousins and the passing game rank third in the league in attempts of 20+ yards downfield, so the Saints secondary should get a real test this week. Also, for as much as the NO defense is being lauded right now, they still only rank 27th against the run. The Saints have twice covered TD spreads, but those games were against Chicago and Tampa Bay, teams that are inferior compared to Washington. Truthfully, New Orleans' 7-2 SU record shouldn't be that surprising considering they've been favored six of the last seven games. Meanwhile, Washington has been favored only ONCE all season as they've taken on the league's most difficult schedule to this points. Saints' stock could not possibly be higher right now, so I view this as an appropriate time to fade. 10* Washington

8* Over Ravens/Packers (1:00 ET): Green Bay treated me last week as I was sure to note the Chicago team they were playing had not been favored in almost a year and not over the Pack dating back to 2008! Sure enough, despite the absence of Aaron Rodgers, GB pulled the "upset," winning 23-16 at Soldier Field. Now they're back at Lambeau to host a Ravens team fresh off its bye. Baltimore is only 4-5 SU in what has been an "up and down" season thus, but they're more than just alive in what is shaping up to be a top-heavy AFC where there's probably going to be at least one pretty ugly playoff entrant (maybe them?). So much of the focus in Baltimore has been on an offense which ranks 30th in the league, but they've faced a pretty impressive slate of defenses thus far and the Over is still 5-0 their last five games. Take the Over here. 

Four times this season, the Ravens have had to faced a top 10 defense (Jags, Steelers, Bears and Vikings). They've lost all four games and averaged only 14 PPG. But they're 4-1 SU otherwise and averaged 26.8 points in those games. The Green Bay defense is certainly nothing special, ranking 18th overall. So I look for more of the "good" Baltimore offense this Sunday. Also, do not discount the likelihood of a defensive score (or two!) here, facing an inexperienced QB like Hundley. Two weeks ago against Miami (who was starting Matt Moore), the Ravens returned two interceptions for touchdowns. In a game against Chicago earlier in the year, they got two special teams TDs. Four of the last five games, this team has put at least 20 points on the board.

The Packers had not topped 17 pts since Hundley took over for Rodgers, until last week. Now, off a win, I wouldn't be surprised if the QB started playing with more confidence. Though its unlikely they'll make the playoffs w/o Rodgers (NFC is deeper than the AFC), the Pack aren't finished yet. Their last two games have gone Over as have five of the previous seven. Defensively, they've allowed at least 239 yards passing each of the last five games. Last week, they gave up 297 to Mitchell Trubisky, which was 133 more than the rookie's previous career high. So this could be a big game for Flacco. Baltimore has not been a healthy team this year, but off the bye, they're as healthy as they've been at any point in 2017. This is a low O/U line, the likes of which they've been topping of late. For Green Bay, it's the lowest of the season to date. 8* Over Ravens/Packers

10* USC (8:00 ET): They say to "throw away" the records in a rivalry game, but in this game, the respective records actually understate the advantage one team has over the other. USC comes in a 9-2 SU, having not had a bye week all season. While they were blown out by Notre Dame last month, their only other loss came on a Friday night at Wazzu, a game in which they lost THREE different offensive lineman to injury. The Trojans had been a disappointment at the betting window much of the year, but not lately as they come into the final riding a 3-game ATS win streak. (I had them LW vs. Colorado). UCLA is 5-5 SU, needing a win for bowl eligibility, but despite having QB Josh Rosen, they're simply overmatched in this spot. The Bruins' previous efforts on the road have been nothing short of disastrous and Saturday night will be no different. 

You are almost certainly aware of the QB battle in this game as USC's Sam Darnold and UCLA's Josh Rosen came into this season as perhaps the two most highly touted pro prospects at their position. Rosen's resume has taken a slight hit due to injury and his team's ineptitude, but like Darnold, better days lay ahead. (An interesting sidenote: the respective fathers were once a doctor (Rosen) and janitor (Darnold) at the same hospital). Darnold has certainly had the better year statistically and has the better supporting cast to lean on. Especially when he hands the ball off to RB Ronald Jones II (552 yards L3 games), who should "slice and dice" a UCLA rush defense which ranks DEAD LAST in the country (302.3 YPG allowed!).

Both offenses are averaging slightly more than 35 PPG, but the key here lies on the defensive end where USC is allowing roughly 12 PPG fewer and that the game takes place at the Coliseum. I already talked about how Darnold and Jones should have their way w/ this UCLA defense, but let's come back to that. The Bruins have been nothing short of abhorrent in road games this year, going 0-5 SU, allowing 49 points and 533 yards per game. Yes, Rosen has missed time. But that's still no excuse for these hideous performances. Last week, they were very lucky to "only" give up 37 points at home to Arizona State, who had jumped out to a 14-0 lead before settling for too many field goals in the second half. USC has not lost a home game this season, outscoring their visitors by 13.6 points per over the six games. The Trojans have beaten the Bruins by 19 and 22 points each of the L2 years (had lost 5 in a row previous to that) and mark my words - this team is going to win the Pac 12. 10* USC

8* Boston (7:35 ET): A road favorite, tempting as they may be, that's this hot is typically something I might shy away from. But I'll make an exception here as the Celtics, who have won 13 straight (while going 12-1 ATS!), play the lowly Hawks. Not only did Atlanta hand Boston it's lone ATS defeat during the 13-game SU win streak, but they are also coming off a rather shocking 46-point victory (franchise record!). It was only their third SU win of the entire season and to put it in perspective, they did play the Kings. Meanwhile, just to show where Boston is at right now, they were able to beat the Warriors on Thursday despite shooting less than 40% from the floor. This is a massive drop in class for them, as they go from facing the best team in the league to one of its worst. It's just the opposite for the Hawks. Lay the points. 

Atlanta was actually off a win the last time they faced Boston, albeit of a much different variety. They had just stunned Cleveland the day before, 117-115, as 11-point road dogs. Here, they've had some time off (two days) since pulling off the most lopsided win in franchise history. Just to show how much different the market now views Boston, they were only 7.5-pt favorites at HOME for the first meeting w/ the Hawks. While there were 24 lead changes in the game, note the Celtics did lead by as many as 10 in the 4Q. Note the Hawks shot 50% from three-point range in that game, something I seriously doubt they'll repeat tonight. After all, Boston is the #1 team in the league in terms of defensive efficiency and holds opponents to only 42.8% shooting overall. They just held the WARRIORS to 88 points on 40% shooting. 

The fact that Boston won Thursday night, despite shooting only 32.9% from the field (7 of 32 from 3-pt range!) is remarkable. It also reinforces that they are the best defensive team in the league right now. It's become cliche to say, but what a remarkable coaching job Brad Stevens is doing here. Yes, you can point to the massive edge the Celtics enjoyed in FT's as a reason for them beating Golden State. But no such edge will need to be present to beat this lowly opponent. Over the L3 seasons, Atlanta is just 5-15 ATS when facing an opponent that is giving up less than 98 points per game. Boston gives up 94.1 PPG. This is a much bigger mismatch than the oddsmakers are accounting for. 8* Boston

6* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): Few teams have "broken away from the pack" in the early going of this NHL season, but the Lightning definitely qualify as an exception to that rule. They currently lead the Atlantic w/ 32 points (league high) after winning five straight (8-1-1 L10). Tonight they find themselves matched up w/ an Islanders club that has started to build some "momentum" (there's that dreaded word again!) w/ B2B wins. But just as they were in all three meetings last season (outscored 14-2!), the Isles look to be severely outclassed here. Tampa Bay has suffered only two regulation losses all year and is a big favorite tonight on home ice, for good reason.

The Lightning rank #1 in the league in goals scored (4.0 per game) and #2 in goals allowed (2.4). I'd say that certainly qualifies them to be called the best team in the league right now. Their +30 goal differential is double that of the next best team in the league and 3x as great as all but two teams! They are coming off a dominant 6-1 win over Dallas Thursday night, right here at Amalie Arena. It was the ninth time already this season that they scored five or more goals and the third they scored at least six. The fact this team has 32 points through 19 games is considered "historically great" and they are 9-2 this season after scoring four or more goals the previous game.

There are two primary reasons not to like the visitors in this matchup. One is that their strength (goal scoring) is not as strong as the opponent. New York does rank third in the league in goals per game, but attempting to win a shootout against Tampa Bay is not wise. A wide-open type of game, which is what we are likely to see here, greatly favors the Lightning. Also, the Islanders are experiencing a rather dramatic home vs. road split this season. They are 6-0-2 SU in Brooklyn, but only 4-6 SU on the road. Also, as you may have guessed, the Lightning have a substantial edge between the pipes in this matchup. The Isles only rank 22nd in goals allowed and netminder Thomas Greiss has a pretty ugly .898 save percentage on the road. Likely starting in goal for the Lightning is Andrei Vasilevskiy and he's the primary reason the team ranks #2 in goals allowed w/ a .932 save percentage. 6* Tampa Bay

10* Princeton (7:00 ET): The Ivy League contingent has opened a disappointing 0-2 SU/ATS, having faced both Butler and BYU. They were favored over the latter, at home, Wednesday night but shot only 37.7% from the floor and scored 56 points. That was a major disappointing considering how well they shot (55.6%) against Butler (road game) in the opener. I'll call for something close to that here as Princeton faces a St. Joe's squad, which has given up an average of 90 points through its first two games. The Hawks would be 0-2 themselves if not for an overtime win at UIC Monday. They trailed by as many as 11 late in the second half there. That was after giving up 98 in regulation at Toledo in the season opener. Though less rested and on the road, I like the underdog here.

This game will come down to how well Princeton can shoot the ball. Considering they shot at a 55.6% clip already this year, we know what they're capable of doing. They even shot 60% from three-point range in that first game. The issue there was they fell behind early (trailed by 10 at half) and were dominated on the boards by Butler (outrebounded 31-18). I do not expect either situation to present itself again tonight. Against BYU, the Tigers actually enjoyed a 36-23 edge on the boards, but in a cruel twist of fate could not make baskets. It was a two-point game w/ just three minutes to go, but Princeton could get no closer.

As I stated earlier, St. Joe's should feel pretty fortunate that they too are not entering this contest at 0-2 SU. Trailing UIC by double digits is not a "good look," even if the Hawks were slight underdogs on the road. Nor was getting blitzed by Toledo a good look either. St. Joe's fell behind in that game, 18-4, and trailed the whole way. They also allowed the Rockets to make 14 of 25 from three-point range! Considering Princeton has shot at a 47.1% clip from behind the arc these first two games, look for that to be an effective option tonight. Take the points. 10* Princeton

8* Under Kentucky/Georgia (3:30 ET): This is an absolutely terrible spot for UGA to be laying this many points as they come in off a humiliating loss LW to Auburn, 40-10, as a defense which ranked among the best in the country was torched for almost 500 total yards. That loss sent the Bulldogs tumbling down from their #1 ranking in the CFP to #7. Now they find themselves in the unenviable spot of "biding their time" between now and the SEC Champ Game (will play either Alabama or Auburn) while hoping just to skirt by the next two opponents. Normally, I would consider a play plus the points here, but I don't have that much respect for a Kentucky squad that is nowhere near as good as its 7-3 SU record might indicate. Therefore, to the total we go and I'm thinking Under.

The SEC is having itself a down year. There are five Top 25 teams in the league, four of them in the West. Kentucky has been one of the real beneficiaries of the "down year" as they've avoided virtually all of the big names from the West (save for Miss St, who clobbered them 45-7). Strangely, despite the better than expected straight up record, the 'Cats are only 3-7 at the betting window. They did cover LW in an impressive 44-21 win over Vanderbilt (as 2.5-pt road dogs), but as we saw in the trip to Starkville, I'd expect a pretty substantial decline in offensive production here. Mississippi State held them to only 260 total yds in that game and let's also note UK was held to only 228 total yds by Eastern Michigan and 254 total yards by Southern Miss. 

Georgia's defense should be supremely motivated after what happened last week. Despite the shellacking LW, the Bulldogs still do rank #2 in the land in def efficiency, which should tell you how well they'd performed prior to the one loss. In fact, it was just the second time all season that they'd allowed more than 19 pts in a game! They are giving up averages of only 14.5 points and 277 yards per game for the season. So a Kentucky offense which has played on a natural surface only twice all year and averaged just 15.0 PPG in those contests, should be held in relative check here. The only thing holding UGA back is the offense, which can run the ball effectively, but is still being led by a relatively inexperienced signal-caller. The gameplan was very conservative last week and it cost them. Kirby Smart knows he can get away w/ being conservative again this week though. QB Jacob Fromm completed less than 50% of his passes LW and for just 184 total yards. 8* Under Kentucky/Georgia

8* Oklahoma (3:30 ET): I fashion myself as a bit of a 'contrarian,' which many times leads me to take "unpopular" sides, most of them being underdogs. But here, my view is most are going to call for #4 Oklahoma to be in letdown mode following its impressive 38-20 win over TCU last week. Trust me, if anyone knows just how well the OU played Saturday night, it's me as I chose to lay the points with them and came away even more impressed w/ Lincoln Riley's outfit. All the Sooners have to do now is win out, which would include the return of the Big 12 Championship Game. I understand why many would consider this a letdown spot and it's a lot of points to lay. But sometimes you just have to look at the two teams and realize one is vastly superior than the other in every conceivable way. Thus, I'll lay the big number. 

How can a team possibly be asked to lay this many points on the conference road? Well, let's start w/ the opponent. Kansas, as I'm sure you know, is atrocious. Really, that's putting things pretty kindly as the Jayhawks have lost nine in a row since beating FCS school SE Missouri State in the season opener. This is not their first time getting 30 or more points in Big 12 play. Earlier in the year, they were +37 at TCU and lost 43-0. Last week, they were +31.5 at Texas and did manage to cover, losing only 42-27 in a game where the total yardage discrepancy was actually not sizable (371-364). But note that Kansas did score a meaningless late TD w/ only 11 seconds remaining, which capped an 80-yard drive. Prior to that, they had only 264 total yards of offense. They also trailed 28-7 after the first quarter. In conference play, the Jayhawks are already being outscored by an even 31.0 PPG. Now they play the best that the Big XII has to offer. 

Oklahoma has actually covered four of the previous six times it has been favored by 31 or more points. One of those came LY, hosting Kansas as 40-pt chalk, and they won 56-3. A year later and I'm not sure why anyone would expect anything different. The Sooners' defense hasn't always been great this season, but the offense can probably name its point total. QB Baker Mayfield is going to win the Heisman (book it!) and could use this game for some additional "highlight material." Consider that the Kansas offense has been shut out twice in Big 12 play (by Iowa State and TCU) and held to only nine points by Baylor (yikes). 8* Oklahoma

8* Minnesota (12:00 ET): Northwestern actually finds itself among the Top 25 in the latest installment of the CFP rankings, but to me, it's a "token gesture" by the committee for the Wildcats winning five straight games. Upon closer inspection, that ranking simply does not hold up as the win streak includes three overtime wins. One of them, against Michigan State, is the most "quality of the bunch but then again we saw just how overrated Sparty was last week (told you!). Against Wisconsin and Penn State, the Wildcats were outscored 64-31. Then there was that early season 41-17 loss to Duke, which keeps getting uglier w/ each passing week. I'm not saying that Minnesota is the best opponent N'western will have faced over the month, but they're going to be a very motivated team Saturday in Evanston simply based on the fact they need one more win to become bowl eligible. Take the points here. 

Minnesota hosts Wisconsin next week, so if they want to get bowl eligible, this week is probably their best chance to do it. I was impressed by the way the Gophers came out last week and destroyed Nebraska 54-21, rolling up 500+ total yds of offense in the process. It was their most points scored in any Big 10 game since 2006, so perhaps PJ Fleck's offense is starting "to take." After a 3-0 SU start, the Big 10 portion of the schedule has not really gone as well as HC Fleck would have hoped in his 1st season here (2-5 SU), but making a bowl is still a milestone worth achieving. The Gophers have basically had the opposite luck of N'western when it comes to close games this year, at least in conference play, as three of their five losses have come by a TD or less. Believe it or not, but for the year, Minnesota has a better scoring differential compared to Northwestern!

Despite being 5-2 SU in Big 10 play, N'western is only outscoring foes by two points per game while outgaining them by just three yards per game! Certainly, Pat Fitzgerald's team will remember what happened in this game last year as they were stomped 29-12 up in Minneapolis. However, this is simply NOT a team I'd want to choose as a favorite. Consider that it's been more than three seasons since they've been favored by 7.5 to 10 pts in Big 10 play and they lost that game outright (to Illinois) w/ bowl eligibility on the line (reg season finale in '14). Minnesota has a strong pass defense (183.9 YPG allowed), which is 3rd best in the Big 10, and that should be enough to at least keep them in this one until the very end. 8* Minnesota

10* Over Blazers/Kings (10:05 ET): We've got two teams at opposite ends of the Western Conference spectrum here. Portland may only be 8-6 SU, but it has a scoring differential of +5.7 PPG, which is tied for the fifth best in all the league. Sacramento has the worst point differential in the entire league as they are getting outscored by 13.6 PPG, which is obviously just an awful number. That makes this a total mismatch on paper, especially w/ the Blazers playing surprisingly good defense (only allowing 98.2 PPG) while the Kings are by far and away the lowest scoring team in all of basketball at 93.6 PPG. But speaking of "total," that's where the play is here as Portland's string of five straight Unders is bound to end soon, especially w/ them averaging 112.7 PPG on the road and up against a bad defensive team. Take the Over. 

The Under is 10-4 for Portland this year, including 9-2 in games in which they are favored. That's largely owed to the defense, which is only giving up an average of 94.8 PPG during the 5-game Under streak. But, despite those defensive efforts, the team is only 3-2 SU in that stretch. They had lackluster offensive nights in home losses to Brooklyn and Memphis. Even in a victory over Orlando Wednesday, they managed to only shoot 43.7% from the field. I feel this is correctable and the shooting numbers are due to go up. Facing an awful defense team should help. The Kings currently rank 29th in defensive efficiency and have allowed their last three opponents all to shoot 51.8% or better. In their last game, they gave up 126 points to Atlanta on 63.3% shooting! 

Sacramento is back home now after an ugly 0-3 SU road trip that saw them get outscored by 91 points. This is probably the worst team in basketball right now and it's going to be a long season. But you have to think that the offensive numbers can only go up from their current putrid state. How, in today's NBA, a team could only clear 100 pts once in nine games is almost unfathomable. Thankfully, the Kings do at least average 98.4 PPG at home, which is about five points per game over their overall season average. They've only played five times at home, yet predictably are far more competitive here than on the road where they're being blown out on a routine basis. These teams haven't met in 11 months (surprising) but will become quite familiar with one another as this is the front end of a home and home. Look for Portland to be prolific from three-point range tonight as opponents - on average - are making 13 three-pointers per game against the Kings, the highest such number in the league. 10* Over Blazers/Kings

10* UNLV (9:30 ET): Last Friday, UNLV hosted BYU in a game that was pretty important for their bowl eligibility. They opened as a favorite, but by kickoff had moved to a slight dog. Turns out that the smart money (and I) were right as the Rebels lost 31-21 to the Cougars even w/ a slight edge in total yardage (447-425). The game really hinged on UNLV being -2 in turnover differential. That result now leaves them in a scenario where they must win their final two reg season games to get to six wins and bowl eligibility. Up first in New Mexico, who just one year removed from a 9-4 SU season (including bowl win!) appears to have given up on HC Bob Davie and his antiquated coaching tactics. The Lobos, who have no shot at bowl eligibility, have dropped five straight to fall to 3-7 SU on the year. With more to play for, I'm backing UNLV in this spot.

UNLV never led last week. Despite that, they were never really out of the game, which swung on a Johnny Stanton INT in the end zone in the first half. At the time, the game was still scoreless. BYU would go onto score touchdowns on each of its next three drives to take control. Now I really haven't necessarily changed my evaluation of the Rebels from last week. Rather, this play has everything to do w/ the opposition. Also, as noted in last week's analysis, UNLV had won B2B games prior to the BYU loss. It's been a long, hard climb for Tony Sanchez's team, whose season started w/ a historic loss (as 45-pt favorites) to FCS Howard. I think that they really want this bowl berth and will be the more motivated of the two sides Friday night. 

Meanwhile, motivation may be approaching its nadir here in the Davie era (6th year in Albuquerque). Reports began to surface early on this season that Davie had lost the locker room over alleged player mistreatment. We've yet to confirm that validity of those claims, but it sure seems as if things went south in a hurry. Four times in the five-game losing streak, the Lobos have lost by double digits. Granted, no one expected them to win at Texas A&M last week, but a 55-19 loss to a team w/ its own coaching issues was pretty bad. The Lobos were outgained 562-144. This defense has not been good much of the year and the running game which carried the offense a year ago has declined from 1st to 34th in yards per attempt. Turnovers have also been a major issue w/ 15 fumbles lost (2nd most in FBS) and a -15 margin overall. UNLV is 4-2 as an underdog this year while New Mexico is 0-4 ATS when favored, so keep an eye on that line (play stands regardless!). 10* UNLV

10* Indiana (7:05 ET): I said to fade Detroit in their last game and sure enough they ended up losing, 99-95 (as 3.5-pt dogs) at Milwaukee. Now, for some, that closing line may have actually ended up a little higher, thereby affecting the ATS result. But my view of the Pistons has not changed here as I believe they've overachieved due in large part to a home-heavy schedule (no one going to games though!) in the early part of this season. They'd played only five road games prior to visiting Milwaukee on Wednesday and were coming off a perfect 5-0 home stand. But they've failed to top 95 points in either of their last two roadies, which includes a 20-pt loss to the Lakers. Tonight they'll be facing a revenge-minded Indiana squad that lost by 17 up in the Motor City earlier this month. 

Prior to that loss, the Pacers had won and covered seven of the previous eight meetings w/ this particular Central Division rival. That included a 4-0 SU/ATS sweep last season and a 4-0 SU/ATS mark here at home the L2 seasons. Indiana is not expected to be a playoff team this year, but at 7-8 SU, they've at least been competitive. They are coming off a 116-113 win at Memphis Wednesday night, which saw them score 67 first-half points (most allowed by the Grizzlies this season) and build a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter. Darren Collison had himself a remarkable game, scoring 30 points (12 for 12 from FT line) w/ eight assists (no turnovers). 

Unlike Detroit, the Pacers have played a majority of their games on the road. This will be just their third home game in November. They've lost the previous two, to New Orleans and Houston. So I suspect motivation will not be lacking here, especially when you add in the revenge factor. Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last five revenge spots, by the way. Meanwhile, despite losing by only four at Milwaukee Wednesday, the Pistons trailed by 13 entering the fourth quarter. So we have a couple of misleading final scores to deal with here and as a result we have a home side that's being undervalued. 10* Indiana

8* Columbus (7:05 ET): The Metro was a very "top-heavy" division last year and these were two of the four teams that finished w/ 100+ points and made the playoffs. Though the Blue Jackets finished slightly ahead of the Rangers in the standings, it was they that I expected to regress more here in 2017-18, simply based on the "quantum leap" they made in jumping from 76 points (last place finish) two seasons ago. However, it's the Rangers that have struggled more so far as they still have an overall losing record despite winning 7 of their last 10 games. It's been the goals allowed side of the ledger that has really hurt them as they currently rank 26th in that department, giving up an average of 3.4 per game. Columbus has been much better in that area (7th), allowing nearly a full goal per game less. Off B2B 2-1 wins, I'll take them on home ice.

This is already the third meeting of the season between these teams. Both have won on home ice w/ C-bus drawing "first blood" in October (3-1) and the Rangers returning the favor w/ a 5-3 win 11 days ago. Both games saw a matchup of Bobrovsky vs. Lundqvist in goal and the rubber match figures to as well. As alluded to earlier, this favors the Blue Jackets seeing as Bobrovsky checks in w/ a .928 save percentage overall and a .938 save percentage at home. Meanwhile, his former Vezina Trophy winning counterpart, Lundqvist, is is the midst of a real "down year." Lundqvist's save percentage is currently .897 on the road games, which is pretty bad.

Now offensively, Columbus desperately needs to pick up the pace. Their power play ranks dead last in the league at 9.6 percent and is 0 for its last 15. They have scored just four times in regulation the last four games as both wins came in extra time. But that's correctable and I don't see the offensive numbers staying down for long. Bobrovsky will be the difference maker in this one as it's not a good sign for the Rangers (or Lundqvist) that they're giving up an average of 38.7 shots per game on the road this season, a truly ghastly number.  The Blue Jackets are more rested coming into tonight and are 7-2 when facing an opponent w/ a losing record. 8* Columbus

8* Quinnipiac (6:00 ET): This is a neutral site affair, part of the Paradise Jam, which takes place in Lynchburg, Virginia. The winner will play either Drake or Wake Forest in Saturday's semifinals. Colorado is 2-0 SU, having beaten in-state foes Northern Colorado and Denver by double digits. But despite also going 2-0 ATS in those games, it really tells us very little about where the Buffaloes are actually at entering 2017. This is a much different team than the one that went 19-15 SU a year ago, personnel wise. Four players were lost to graduation, leaving a rotation that is a "work in progress" according to HC Tad Boyle. There are eight newcomers that have seen action thus far. One of them is NOT freshman Evan Battey, who was expected to be a starter in the frontcourt, but instead must sit out this entire year due to academics.

Quinnipiac is 1-1 SU so far, having played two close games against Ivy League schools. They opened w/ a one-point win over Dartmouth and then followed that up by losing by seven to Brown. Both were home games for a school known more for its polling institute than its athletic programs. From 2009 to 2014, the Bobcats produced three 20+ win seasons. However, they are just 34-57 SU the L3 seasons under HC Tom Moore. One positive here though is that they have covered four of their last five neutral court games. They also have one of the top players in the MAAC, that being Chaise Daniels, a senior who has 39 pts, 11 rebounds and six blocks in the first two games. Freshman Rich Kelly looks to be an impactful newcomer as he's scored in double figures in both games.

Though they've previously covered twice as double-digit favorites, this is the biggest spread to date for Colorado and I wouldn't trust them just yet, especially at a neutral setting. Furthermore, they've actually lost 6 of their previous 10 neutral site games. Not saying they'll lose this one outright, but winning by this kind of margin seems unlikely. The 27-point win over Denver on Tuesday can be explained by the fact that the Buffs had four days off before the game. They still allowed the Pioneers to shoot 55.6% from the floor in the 1H though before the underdog admittedly ran out of gas. I'm also not sure CU will get to enjoy a 2:1 rebounding edge, like they had vs. Denver, again tonight. Quinnipiac actually shot well in the loss to Brown (48%) and if they can do that again, they should easily cover here. 8* Quinnipiac

8* San Jose (10:35 ET): Winners of six of their last seven, the Sharks are getting exemplary goaltending from both Martin Jones and Aaron Dell right now. Saturday night (against lowly Vancouver) may have marked the team's first shutout of the season, but the bottom line is that this team ranks #1 in the league in goals against at 2.3 per game. During the win streak, they've allowed two or fewer goals six times, the one exception not coincidentally being the lone loss. I like the matchup tonight vs. a Florida team that ranks next to last (30th) in goals allowed and penalty killing. San Jose has been off since Sunday, so they should be rested and ready to go tonight at home. The Panthers have lost six of their eight road games this season.

Florida is off a win, though they needed a shootout to get by Dallas at home on Tuesday. The win was just their second in the last eight games, so they've been trending in the exact opposite direction of San Jose lately. They were outshot 43-29 in that last game, so it was a bit of a fortunate win. Roberto Luongo came up w/ a rare big game in goal, stopping 40 shots. But w/ a save percentage of just .919 for the year, I wouldn't bank on him making it B2B strong performances. The big problem Luongo faces here is the number of shots on goal the Panthers are allowing, 36.6 per game, which is the highest average in the league. You're not going to win many games giving up that many shots. Also, there's the matter of the Panthers having won B2B games only one time this season and that was back in their second and third game.

The Sharks have the unique distinction of having the #1 and #2 goaltender in the league when it comes to goals against average. Jones is the probable starter tonight after he shut down the Kings Sunday in an important 2-1 win. He comes in sporting a 2.13 GAA, second only to Dell's 1.94. The team has been winning in spite of ranking in the bottom six in goals per game scored (2.7), but you have to figure that number will start to go up moving forward, especially after facing this particular opponent. Florida is just 1-6 SU this season after scoring 4+ goals the previous game. San Jose has put at least 31 shots on goal in six of the last seven games, so they should get plenty of opportunities to score tonight. Go w/ the rested and better team at home. 8* San Jose

10* Over Titans/Steelers (8:25 ET): Hey! We actually have a relatively attractive Thursday night matchup for once. Don't think for a second that Tennessee is as fortunate to be 6-3 straight up as their negative (-8) point differential might suggest. That's still owed to one, ugly 57-14 loss to Houston back when the Texans still had DeShaun Watson at QB. Also. the Titans lost Marcus Mariota to an injury in that game. Since Mariota returned, they've won four straight (three by four points or less!) and "looked the part" of a playoff team. What I do find interesting here, however, is the Steelers' 8-1 Under record. They have an offense that many thought would lead the league in points per game, but instead they're averaging only 20.8 PPG and have exceeded that average only twice in the past six games. Yet, I'll take the Over here. Why? Read on! 

Last week marked that vintage lackluster road game that Steelers' fans have become all too familiar with during the Mike Tomlin era. As double digit favorites, they actually trailed the Colts 10-0 before coming back to win 20-17. They didn't even score until the final seconds of the first half when Chris Boswell kicked a 41-yd FG. Boswell then won the game w/ a second field goal w/ no time remaining. Despite what you're just read, I'm still a buyer on this offense. You can't really blame Le'Veon Bell holding out anymore as he currently is the league leader in rush yards (840), even though roughly 10% of his attempts have gone for zero or negative yardage. He is facing more defenders stacked in the box, but (theoretically) that should start to open the passing game. 

Tennessee, on the other hand, has gone Over in six of its last eight games. They've topped 30 points three or more times during that span and that's out of seven games w/ Mariota in the lineup. Last week, they rolled up over 400 total yards in a 24-20 win over Cincinnati that required a fourth quarter comeback. They had 27 first downs to Cincinnati's 15. They would have scored more, but fumbled at the goal line after an 11-play, 6:13 drive. Also, in the first half, kicker Ryan Succop missed for the first time inside the 50 in 48 tries after another long, 11-play drive. This is a pretty low total considering the Titans have allowed 20 or more points three of their last four games. The one time they didn't was against Cleveland. 10* Over Titans/Steelers

10* Over Warriors/Celtics (8:05 ET): This will be promoted as a potential "NBA Finals Preview" and I really can't argue w/ that as, right now, these are the top teams in their respective conferences. Golden State, of course, is the league's best team - by a significant margin. However, I'm not sure they are deserving of this level of favoritism, especially w/ the game being in Boston and the Celtics on an incredible run right now (13 consecutive victories!) that has seen them cover the spread 11 times (11-1-1 ATS). In fact, the Celtics' overall ATS record of 12-2-1 qualifies as the BEST EVER start at the betting window I've ever tracked! Quite frankly, I don't have a good read on the side here, but the total I do like and I see this matchup going Over the total.

The Dubs have won seven in a row themselves and had covered the spread six straight times before "slipping by" Orlando Monday night, 110-100 as 12.5-pt home favorites. As per usual, we find them leading the league in offensive efficiency and points per game. A little surprising is that they're scoring more on the road w/ an average of 123.7 PPG, which is of course unreal. Save for a 97-80 win over Miami, this team has scored at least 110 pts in every game during the current win streak. Keep in mind Steph Curry didn't play against Orlando, yet the team still shot 50% from the floor overall. But where Curry's absence did hurt was three-point shooting as the team went just 8 for 23 from behind the arc, and 5 for 18 excluding Klay Thompson. Normally, the Warriors make 13 three-pointers per game (15 on the road!). Also, with the game vs. Orlando in hand, they only scored 22 pts total in the 4Q.

What makes this such a fascinating matchup is that it's a battle of the #1 team in offensive efficiency vs. the #1 team in defensive efficiency. Boston is allowing a league-low 94.5 points per game, which is four fewer than the next best team. At home, they allow just 93.4 PPG. So something will have to give here. From Boston's perspective, this O/U is high, while for Golden State it's obviously a little low. The Celtics have gone Under in all five games they've been a dog this year and are shooting only 43.3% from the field, for the season. But this figures to be a high-possession game, which lends itself to the Over. 10* Over Warriors/Celtics

10* Utah (8:00 ET): Here's an interesting, early-season non-conference battle. Both Missouri and Utah are 2-0, but that was expected by the oddmakers. The Utes have played a couple of cupcakes - Prairie View A&M and Mississippi Valley State - and blew them out by a combined 59 points. Missouri actually opened w/ Iowa State (in Columbia) and won by 15 as six-point chalk. The Tigers' last opponent, Wagner, was totally overmatched in a 99-55 final. So who comes out on top here? Well, the answer to that question likely depends a lot on who will or won't play here. Mizzou could be w/o at least one key contributor and that could be the difference. Regardless if they are shorthanded or not here, I'm fading them in their first road trip of this young season.

Utah outscored MVSU by 20 pts in each half on Tuesday, resulting in a 91-51 win. What it was clearly an overmatched opponent, I was nevertheless impressed w/ how the Utes dominated despite being w/o one of their top players Sedrick Barefield (sick). They also didn't have Jayce Johnson for a second straight game. Those are expected to be two key contributors for a team that lost four of its top six scorers from a year ago, so it's pretty impressive that they haven't "skipped a beat." Barefield is reportedly feeling better and thus is probable to play tonight. As I'll get to more in a moment, this game taking place in Salt Lake City is huge and not just because the Utes are 32-5 SU their last 37 games here. 

Missouri has lost an unconscionable 35 consecutive "true" road games dating back to a win at Arkansas in 2014! I'd say that's a "pretty big" deal in handicapping this matchup, don't you? Also there's a good chance they will be w/o their projected NBA lottery pick Michael Porter Jr, who is battling a hip injury. He's currently listed as questionable for tonight. Also, another player - guard Blake Harris - left the last game w/ a leg injury. Not only has Mizzou been an atrocious road team that last four seasons, they predictably haven't been good as an underdog either, losing 39 of 44 straight up in that role, most of those coming away from Columbia. More of the same here. 10* Utah

10* Over Tulsa/South Florida (7:30 ET): It's been a rather steep decline for Tulsa this season, but that was largely to be expected. Last year, the Golden Hurricane went 10-3 SU including a 55-10 bowl win over Central Michigan. But that team also boasted a 3,348 yard passer, a 1629 yd rusher and TWO 1,000+ yd receivers. All of those players departed and as a result, they come into this game already w/ no shot at bowl eligibility as they're just 2-8 straight up (0-4 in games decided by six points or less). Yet, they still actually average a healthy 31.0 PPG. The problem has actually resided on the defensive side of the ball where they're giving up 38.0 PPG. That's going to be an issue facing South Florida, but w/ a big pointsread, the better move is to the Over.

USF came into 2017 w/ a new head coach (Charlie Strong) and visions of grabbing that coveted "Group of 5" spot in a "New Year's Six" Bowl. They still have a shot at doing so, but a home loss to Houston several weeks back really put a damper on those aspirations. Still, the Bulls do control their own destiny as they'll play at undefeated UCF next Friday. Win their final two regular season games + the AAC Title Game and it will likely be USF that is in a major bowl game. Willie Taggart certainly did not leave an empty cupboard for Strong as the offense is averaging 39.1 PPG (actually slightly down from LY) while the defense gives up just 19.9 PPG, which is way down from last year.

These schools have met only one time (2014) and in that game, USF pulled off the greatest comeback in its history, rallying back from a 27-7 halftime deficit to win 38-30. I expect similar fireworks Thursday night in Tampa. Save for the one loss to Houston, this USF offense has been remarkably consistent w/ 31 or more points scored in every game. I don't anticipate Quentin Flowers and company to have much trouble moving the ball on this woeful Tulsa defense, which is giving up 46.6 points and nearly 600 yards per game on the road. For the year, USF is averaging just over 500 YPG and they topped 600 in the last game w/ QB Flowers setting a career best w/ 385 yards passing. It's all a question if Tulsa can put enough points on the board as well and I think they can. They have the 15th best rush offense in the country (248.7). Unfortunately, USF is 7th (277 YPG) in that same department. The USF offense should be able to move the ball at will here while Tulsa will move it enough times to get the game Over the total. 10* Over Tulsa/South Florida

10* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): The infamous "process" is starting to pay dividends in Philly as the Sixers have started 7-6 SU. They're also 9-4 ATS, a continuation of last year's success at the betting window when they were the best bet in the league. They just beat the Clippers here in L.A., 109-105 Monday (as 1.5-pt dogs) and will now play their second straight game at Staples Center, this one coming against the Lakers. "Showtime" is also off a win, theirs coming at Phoenix, which snapped an ugly three-game SU/ATS losing skid. The Lakers are playing remarkably well at the defensive end this season (4th in efficiency!) and with this being the finale of a five-game trek out West for the 76ers, you have to wonder what they may have left in the tank. Love the home dog here. 

Yes, the Lakers are one of four teams currently allowing fewer than one point per possession. The other three are: Boston, Oklahoma City and Portland. This is quite the remarkable achievement considering that it was just last season that the Lakers ranked dead last in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 1.11 points per possession. They held Phoenix to just 93 points Monday night, thus avoiding what could have been a winless four-game trip. In addition to the defensive improvement that has already taken place here, we should expect the Lakers to be better on the offensive end in this game as well. I say that because they are averaging 106.0 PPG at home this season as opposed to just 100.6 PPG on the road.

Philadelphia is a bit of a question mark defensively as they are giving up 109.5 PPG. That number jumps to 110.8 on the road. Admittedly, that's a bit skewed due to giving up 135 at Golden State over the weekend. However, let us not forget that this group also lost outright (as a favorite) in Sacramento late last week as well. I'm not yet convinced that this team has earned the right to be consistently favored away from home. They've only been favored four times all year and lost two of those games outright. The two they covered were at home against lowly Atlanta and Indiana. To me, this is more of a "pick 'em" type affair. Consider that over the last three seasons, this will be just the TENTH time that Philadelphia has been favored! Cart before the horse? 10* LA Lakers

10* Over Bruins/Ducks (10:05 ET): Pardon the pun, but both of these teams come into tonight "ice cold." Boston has dropped three in a row, including a home and home w/ Toronto, while Anaheim has lost five of six, the majority of those defeats coming at home. However, neither can complain about not having ample time to prepare for tonight's game as the last time the Bruins played was Saturday while the Ducks have been off since Sunday. A lack of scoring has definitely hurt both teams in the early going this season, but in the case of Boston at least, the other side of the ledger is just as responsible for their woes. They've allowed three or more goals in five consecutive games. That is just one of the reasons I'll be on the Over tonight. 

Anaheim played a low-scoring affair its last time out, losing to Tampa Bay 2-1. They allowed too many shots (again!) as in 37, which will bite you against a team like the Lightning. Save for the 4-1 win over sorry Vancouver late last week, the Ducks have allowed 37 or more shots in three of their past four games. Right now, they're allowing the third most shot attempts per game in the league (34.5) and it's really hard to win in this league w/ a number like that. If there is one bright spot though, it is that they also are averaging 34.4 shot attempts per game here at home. It should be noted that the O/U line for Ducks' previous game was 6.0, so there's a bit of value in taking the Over here, especially considering both games vs. Boston last season went Over the total.

Boston's last two games also saw O/U lines of 6.0. As mentioned before, they've allowed at least three goals in five consecutive games. Goaltender Tuukka Rask is simply not having a very good season as his save percentage in the last four games is a pretty woeful .891. When facing an opponent w/ a losing record (Anaheim is 7-10 SU overall), the Over is 5-1 for the Bruins this season. They are also a perfect 3-0 Over after being held to one goal or less their previous game. They lost 4-1 to Toronto on Saturday. It hasn't been an issue of getting shots on goal recently as the team has averaged 34.8 over its last five games. So I expect them to start scoring w/ greater regularity moving forward. Also, if there is a saving grace for them, it's their 8th ranked power play (22.0%). 10* Over Bruins/Ducks

10* Northwestern (9:00 ET): We find a Big 10 team laying a pretty short number here to a team from the Big East, even though the game takes place in the former's gym. Northwestern has started its season w/ a couple of closer than expected victories over Loyola MD and St. Peter's, both coming by just single digits. I believe that's played an instrumental role in driving down this number far more than it ought to be. Creighton, on the other hand, has scored 92 and 109 points in its two victories, so it's easy to see why they'd look so attractive as an underdog. But I won't be taking the bait; in fact, this marks a great opportunity to take an undervalued favorite that is ranked #20 in the country. 

Michigan State is obviously the heavy favorite this year in the Big 10, but don't be surprised if Chris Collins has this N'western team not too far behind. I've seen the Wildcats pegged as high as a third-place finish! Again, they are ranked (currently #20), so they won't be sneaking up on anybody. The close win over St. Peter's comes w/ a caveat in that the Wildcats led by 18 w/ 12 minutes to go. It was clearly a case of letting the underdog back in through the back door. It was a similar story in the first game against Loyola, who they allowed to score 51 points in the second half. I suspect such lapses will not be taking place in this game. At least they better not or the Wildcats will taste defeat for the 1st time this season. Remember that Collins got N'western to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history last season. Four starters are back from that team. 

Creighton always seems to rank near the top of the country in offensive efficiency for HC McDermott. They've already made 24 three-pointers this season, shooting at a 41.1% clip from behind the arc. But that was also against much lesser competition than what they'll be facing here. Two players - Marcus Foster and Khyri Thomas - have accounted for 40% of all Blue Jays' scoring this year, which is quite a bit when you consider the team has scored 201 points in the two games. Those two are the only two starters back from LY, so they're less experienced compared to their opponent tonight. That matters this time of year as does the fact Creighton is just 8-13 ATS the L21 times it has been an underdog, winning only five of those games straight up. Northwestern has covered three straight against Big East opponents, plus is 14-5 ATS their last 19 against that conference. 10* Northwestern

8* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): Somebody break up the Pistons! In their return to downtown Detroit, the team has started 10-3 SU. Only Boston, Golden State and Houston can claim more victories right now. If only people would start going to the games! Tonight though, they're in Milwaukee for what sets up as an interesting Central Division battle. The Bucks are only 7-6 SU, but have won three straight (all against Western Conference teams) since acquiring Eric Bledsoe in a trade w/ Phoenix. Pairing Bledsoe w/ everyone's favorite dark horse MVP candidate - Giannis Antetokounmpo - makes Milwaukee a significantly better team than the one who lost 105-96 in Detroit two weeks ago. I'll take them minus the short number in this revenge spot. 

Detroit has won five in a row, but all of those victories were achieved at home, in front of all of those empty seats. While the team is now 7-1 SU in the Motor City, they're only 3-2 SU on the road. Their last road game also happened to be their last loss and it was an ugly one, 113-93 to the Lakers. They did win at Golden State two nights before that, but still, I question if this team can play consistently well away from home. They are just 34-55 SU in road games under HC Stan Van Gundy. A big reason for them beating Milwaukee the first time around (besides no Bledsoe for the Bucks) was a +19 edge in FT attempts. That's not likely to exist here in this rematch being the game is in the Bradley Center. 

Antetokounmpo leads the league in scoring (31.3 PPG), but clearly needed help as the Bucks were lacking in depth. Help has arrived in the form of Bledsoe, who may not be shooting the ball that well yet, but that was to expected given he had yet to play this season. In his first game w/ the team, the Bucks won at San Antonio. They've since won and covered here at home against the Lakers and Grizzlies. A strong defensive effort was the reason they beat the Grizz, whom they held to just 12 pts in the third quarter Monday. The two games before that, they held the opposition to 42.5% and 41.9% shooting respectively. I like those defensive numbers and w/ the Pistons still relatively unproven on the road, I think this is a great spot to fade them. 8* Milwaukee