10* Buffalo (7:00 ET): This past offseason should have been a time to rejoice in upstate New York. Last season saw the Bills end what had been the longest playoff drought in league (dated back to 1999). Granted, the playoff game didn't go so well. It was an ugly 10-3 loss to Jacksonville, but the bottom line is the Bills should have felt fortunate to even be there. This was a team that had been outscored by 57 pts in the regular season and did not do well against teams w/ winning records.

The goodwill from that first playoff appearance in two decades has quickly disappaited w/ the front office deciding to shed salary, leaving a roster that's clearly inferior to last year's team. Perhaps one of the more notable changes occurred at QB where Tyrod Taylor was jettisoned. It never seemed like the coaching staff liked Taylor and they now have three potential choices to replace him. None are particularly attractive as you have AJ McCarron (career backup), Nathan Peterman (complete disaster LY) and Josh Allen (a rookie w/ questionable potential). The irony though is this uncertainty at the most important position actually works to the Bills' BENEFIT here in the preseason opener. All three signal-callers are likely to see time Thursday and should be motivated. Having motivated signal-callers on the field for the majority of the game is always something to look for when handicapping the NFL preseason. 

Carolina is another playoff team from last year that I expect to take a step backwards in 2018. They were fortunate to go 11-5 SU as they were 7-1 in one-score games. The big difference, at least for this game, between them and Buffalo is the key question of motivation. The Panthers are far more likely to be content w/ "what they have." They probably aren't as aware of the pitfalls that await them this season. They pretty much bring back the same roster, led by QB Cam Newton, who isn't going to play much here (if at all). There is the question of depth at running back w/ Jonathan Stewart gone. The small-ish Christian McCaffery simply isn't built to be an "every-down" back in this league, if such a thing even still exists anyway. Another issue facing the Panthers here is they've suffered multiple injuries along the offensive line in camp. They aren't going to want to risk further depth issues. Therefore, you're likely to see an overwhelmed third string OL much of the time Thursday. That means trouble. Lay the short number w/ the more motivated team that's playing at home. 10* Buffalo

8* LA Dodgers (10:05 ET): I took the Dodgers as my top Interleague play for August last night and they beat the A's, 4-2. I thought it was a very good price on them considering Oakland (curiously) isn't as strong here at home. The A's were also at "peak value" coming in off a six-game win streak that came at the expense of two bad teams. It looks to be a similar deal tonight, although the price on the Dodgers is elevated due to Clayton Kershaw starting. Still, the price is nowhere near where it ought to be, given Kershaw and his team's exploits. As I said in yday's analysis, Oakland is a bit overrated in the sense that they've outperformed their win expectancy that's based on run differential. Granted, that outperformance isn't as extreme as the division rival Mariners, but they're not on the level of a Dodgers team that has the second best run differential in the entire National League.

Something I also discussed in yday's analysis is the offensive decline that takes place for the A's here at home. No team has scored more runs this year on the road. But at the O.co Coliseum, they average only 3.9 rpg while batting a collective .229. Incredibly, only three teams score FEWER runs per game at home and only one has a lower team batting average. Not that Kershaw even needs these added advantages. He comes in w/ a 2.55 ERA and 1.070 WHIP and has pitched even better on the road this season (1.94 ERA, 0.960 WHIP). Given that he's allowed more than 3 ER in just two of his 16 starts, an 8-8 TSR seems highly misleading. Even though all three career starts vs. Oakland have resulted in no decisions for him, Kershaw's ERA in those games is 0.87.

Michael Fiers will be making his Oakland debut Wednesday night. Unfortunately, it comes against a team already averaging 5.1 rpg on the road and now has a DH in the lineup. Fiers has not necessarily pitched well in this stadium in the past. His ERA is 4.91 in six career appearances here. Matching up w/ Kershaw is always difficult, but especially when he's been flashing the form we've seen recently. I just don't see a path for Fiers to outduel him. This is an unique matchup where it seems as if the ROAD team has the edge and the Dodgers are a team that has actually UNDERperformed its win expectancy, which is just the opposite of the Athletics. 8* LA Dodgers

8* Colorado (3:10 ET): The Rockies should feel lucky to be seven games above .500, let alone in the NL West race, as they've been outscored over the course of this season. Of course, you could spin the same "tale" about this year's Pirates, who have been less than mediocre, save for an 11-game win streak that surrounded the All-Star Break. Somebody's got to take Wednesday afternoon's rubber match though and I'm going to side w/ Colorado, based on not only the line movement I'm seeing, but also the belief that the Bucs are still due to "give some more back" after that random win streak occurred. Motivation should be high for the home team here after being embarrassed last night in a 10-2 loss. True to season-long form, Pittsburgh is just 5-7 since the 11-game win streak ended. 

Chris Archer would not be denied in his Pirates' debut last Friday as the Pirates prevailed 7-6 at home over the Cardinals. I took Archer that day, but the reality of the matter is that the win was in spite, not because, of him. He allowed five runs in 4 1/3 innings and that's in a venue far less friendly to starting pitchers than the one he'll toe the rubber at today. Concerning is the fact Archer has now allowed four or more runs in three straight starts, which goes back to his Tampa Bay days. He has made one career start here - in 2016 - and it went well. But still, this year's numbers simply do not indicate he'll be able to handle a lineup that has the highest team batting average at home in the entire National League. 

At the same time, no team in the NL allows more runs per game at home than do the Rockies. But I see a considerable edge in starting pitching for them in this one. German Marquez is unbeaten over his past six starts (4-0, 2.95 ERA) and is off B2B quality efforts. Last time out, it was a hard-luck no decision vs. Milwaukee as he allowed just two runs on three hits, but the Rockies lost the game - on a walkoff - 5-3. Marquez has always pitched well against Pittsburgh as he's a perfect 3-0 w/ a 2.50 ERA. Earlier this year, he held them to two runs on two hits over six innings. Armed w/ the edge in starting pitching, the Rockies will take this game and series. 8* Colorado

8* Seattle (2:05 ET): This is the rubber match of a three-game set. The Mariners took the opener (a one run win, which is their "thing"), then the Rangers came back w/ an 11-4 beatdown on Tuesday. We've been through the analysis on Seattle many times this year. In terms of wins and losses, it's clearly an overrated team. Even though they've been outscored on the season (-25 run diff), they somehow have managed to go 65-49. That "somehow" is an extremely fortunate 28-14 record in one-run games (also 9-1 in extra innings). Their WL record was even more misleading prior to them dropping 14 of their last 21 games. Ironically, the team that has passed them in the AL Wild Card standings (Oakland) now has an even better win percentage in one-run games (but also a far better YTD run differential as well). That all being said, I like the M's to bounce back from last night's debacle. They're up against the last place team in the division here & the Rangers allow more runs per game (6.1!) at home than any other team in baseball. 

Throughout the year, I've questioned just how good some of these Seattle starters truly are. Most have good team start records in spite of less than dominant numbers. That's really been the story of this entire 2018 Mariners team. But consider this afternoon's starter, Marco Gonzales, the exception to that "rule." He's gone 12-6 in 22 starts (15-7 TSR) w/ a 3.26 ERA and 1.146 WHIP. He's won both career starts against Texas, turning in a 2.31 ERA. Earlier this year, he allowed only one unearned run to them, in 6 2/3 innings, in what ended up being a 2-1 Seattle victory. After turning in five consecutive quality starts (allowed 2 ER or less every time), Gonzales did give up four runs in a loss to Toronto his last time out. But I expect him to bounce back from that here. 

It's the Texas starter whose record I have to call into question on Wednesday. Veteran Yovani Gallardo is 6-1 (7-1 TSR) despite having a 5.24 ERA and 1.433 WHIP. The big key for the Rangers in his starts has not been the actual pitching, but rather the run support given as Gallardo receives the highest run support average in all of MLB. In his last two starts alone, the Rangers have scored a total of 28 runs. That doesn't sound like a sustainable blueprint to me though and it should again be noted how many runs per game Texas gives up here at home. When you are giving up a higher average in your park than Colorado does in Coors Field, you know something is awry. Gallardo got away w/ giving up five runs to Baltimore his last time out (Texas won 17-8), but he won't be so lucky this time. 8* Seattle

10* LA Dodgers (10:05 ET): Was it really THIRTY years ago that these teams met in the World Series? (Answer: yes, it was). As of right now, it seems like both could be headed back to the postseason this year. The Dodgers do trail the D'backs by one-half game (by virtue of being idle yday) in the NL West and are also one-half game out of Wild Card position. But they do own the second best run differential (+95) in the entire National League, so by that metric, expect them to get in, one way or the other. Meanwhile, Oakland is red-hot. They've won six straight to surge into Wild Card position over in the American League, although I hesitate to say they're as good as their record. A 21-9 record in one-run games has certainly helped their cause as did playing lowly Detroit over the weekend (swept them). 

There's also something rather curious going on w/ the A's as they are far more prolific at the plate on the road than they are at home. When it comes to number of runs scored on the road, they are actually #1 in all of baseball. But at home, their production dips all the way down to 3.9 rpg w/ a .230 team batting average. That's almost two full runs LESS per game than what they average on the road. Now scoring was virtually a "moot point" this past weekend as they allowed Detroit to score only one run in the three games. But this series clearly will be a tougher challenge as they face a Dodgers' lineup that will benefit from the addition of a designated hitter. LA already averages 5.1 rpg on the road and that's mostly w/ the pitcher having to come up to bat. 

As good as Sean Manaea (tonight's starter) has been for the A's recently, the Dodgers' Rich Hill (tonight's starter) has been better. Manaea has a 3.06 ERA and 1.132 WHIP his L3 starts while Hill has a 0.95 ERA and 1.053 WHIP. Hill has allowed just three runs in 19 IP during that time and should perform well here, given Oakland's offensive struggles at home. Hill is quite familiar w/ this park having pitched for the A's previously. Getting back to Oakland's good fortune of late, they are 4-0 in extra inning games since the All-Star Break. The Dodgers are definitely better than their WL record, given the run differential, and this is an easier matchup for them compared to the last series vs. Houston. In fact, they've taken on nothing but playoff contenders since the All-Star Break. Meanwhile, Oakland's list of opponents since the Break has been far weaker, especially over the last week. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): After being embarrassed here over the weekend (swept by the White Sox!), I see the Rays as likely to be highly motivated for this Tuesday night affair. It's the start of a series against another bottom-feeder, that being the Orioles. Obviously, the last series taught us that the Rays are not immune from losing to the very worst teams in baseball. But to continue to do so seems a little far-fetched to me. Sure, the Rays did drop three of four the last time they faced the Orioles. But that was in Baltimore. On the road, the O's are an absolutely horrific 14-43 while being outscored by 2.2 rpg. Plus, I'll point out that Baltimore is one of just two teams (the Royals are the other) w/ a worse record and run differential than the White Sox. 

The events of this past weekend have left TB on the very fringes of playoff contention as they're 10.5 games back of red-hot Oakland for the 2nd Wild Card in the American League. Realistically, it's highly unlikely that we will be seeing the Rays in the postseason. That's too bad because the pitching staff has performed at a very high level over the last 2+ months, thanks to some creativity from manager Kevin Cash. At home, the team is allowing just 3.4 rpg w/ opponents batting .210! Even after being swept over the weekend, their record at Tropicana Field is still 32-23. Note that all three losses in the White Sox series came by one run, two of them w/ the pitching staff allowing three runs or fewer. 

Maybe making the playoffs isn't even the goal this year in Tampa Bay given the recent dealings of the front office. Tonight's starter, Tyler Glasnow, is a recent acquisition stemming from a trade w/ Pittsburgh. Glasnow has already started once for the Rays and went three innings in a 7-2 win over the Angels. Given Baltimore has never faced him before, I suspect we'll see far better pitching from the Rays than the last series when they allowed the Orioles to score 11+ runs three times. Meanwhile, starting for the O's will be a familiar face at Tropicana Field, that being former Ray Alex Cobb. TB has really beaten up on their former teammate in 2018, going 3-0 against him w/ Cobb's ERA being 6.10. The only game TB won in the last series was against Cobb as he allowed four runs and eight hits. For the year, Cobb is 3-14 in 20 starts (4-16 TSR) w/ a 5.74 ERA and 1.541 WHIP. A really interesting stat here is that Baltimore is 0-12 this season when playing after an off-day! 8* Tampa Bay

8* Houston (10:15 ET): We're getting the Astros off a loss here (3-2 to the Dodgers Sunday), which I like b/c this isn't a team that loses very often (71-42 WL record). The previous weekend did see them get swept for the 1st time all year (by Texas!) and then a loss last Monday to Seattle gave them a season-worst five-game losing streak. But between that and yday, they'd gone 4-0 including an incredibly impressive 14-0 beatdown of the Dodgers Saturday night. The Astros have been baseball's best road team all season w/ a 39-18 record that has seen them outscore their hosts by a monstrous 2.7 runs per game. Thus I have no fears about taking them here as a West Coast Interleague swing continues against the overrated Giants. 

I say that San Francisco is overrated b/c they've been outscored this year (-23 run diff) even though they've been slightly above .500 most of the way. The NL West is very much a FOUR-team race at this point, but in my eyes, Arizona and Los Angeles are vastly superior to Colorado and San Francisco. Houston is just the opposite of the Giants in that they have UNDERperformed in terms of wins and losses. Their YTD run differential of +199 is baseball's best and indicates they should have about 80 wins this season, rather than their actual win total of 71. That's actually the largest negative gap between expected and actual wins of any team. 

Now that we've established the Astros are better than their record while the Giants aren't quite as good as theirs, let's look at tonight's pitching matchup shall we? Houston hands the baseball to Charlie Morton, who has won five of his last six decisions and has a 12-2 record w/ a 2.90 ERA (1.158 WHIP) this season. I took him as my 10* Game of the Week his last time out and was rewarded w/ a 5-2 win at Seattle. It was his second straight quality start on the road. He actually now has the best win percentage in all of MLB among starters w/ at least 10 decisions! Morton is opposed here by rookie Dereck Rodriguez, who was admittedly very good in July. But you never know when that rookie wall might come. He also goes from facing San Diego his last time out to the highest scoring road team in all of baseball. I'm not too concerned about the loss of the DH here for the Astros nor the fact they've struggled in the past here at AT&T Park. Morton is more than familiar w/ this stadium and has pitched well against the Giants in the past. While San Fran managed to split w/ Arizona over the weekend, I don't think they'll be that lucky here based on the fact they were crushed in both games out in Houston back in May (outscored 15-3). 8* Houston

10* Arizona (9:40 ET): The Phillies are probably feeling pretty good about themselves as they fly cross-country to Arizona. They just swept the Marlins in a four-game set over the weekend, but the battle of division leaders that awaits them will obviously be more challenging. As a reminder, Miami is the worst team in the National League, so a sweep (especially at home) really shouldn't have come as any sort of shock. Really, it was almost to be expected. Despite their 1st place standing in the NL East, I still have my doubts over the Phils. Both teams chasing them - Atlanta & Washington - have significantly better YTD run differentials. My doubts are further heightened on the road where the club is just 25-30. I'll be siding w/ the host D'backs in Monday's series opener. 

While Philly was sweeping Miami over the weekend, Arizona had to settle for a split w/ the Giants. That leaves them in a first place tie w/ the Dodgers atop the NL West. Despite their team batting average (.237) being fairly low, this team has found away to still score (12th in runs). Pitching has not been an issue, however, as the staff ranks top 10 in most key categories and they have one of the better bullpens in all of baseball. Chase Field used to have a rep as one of the more hitter-friendly parks, but that's changed in '18 through the use of a humidor (similar to Coors Field in Colorado). Arizona's pitchers have taken full advantage by limiting opponents to just 4.1 rpg here. The Phillies' offense dips somewhat significantly on the road, down to 4.0 rpg, which partly explains their rather massive home vs. road splits.

A rare bullpen gaffe (eighth inning HR) cost the D'backs yday, but I do not anticipate them even in being in a similar position for that to happen tonight. Sunday was a rarity in that the D'backs were 44-18 when scoring first. They are tops in all of baseball w/ 92 runs scored in the 1st inning. Despite him coming in w/ a 6-0 TSR his L6 starts, I'm not afraid of playing against the Phillies' Jake Arrieta, who has been inconsistent and hardly overpowering this season. He is off perhaps his best start of '18 as he held Boston to one run in a win as a +130 ML dog last Tuesday. But a repeat seems unlikely. I like Arizona's Zack Godley, who has similar numbers to Arrieta, and a 6-2 record at home. He too is off perhaps his best start of the season. Godley has also been more overpowering than Arrieta of late w/ 68 K's in his L58 IP. Arizona took two of three in Philly earlier this season, thus they better expectations here at home. 10* Arizona

8* St. Louis (7:10 ET): It was never any secret that the Marlins were bad, but the extent of their futility was something that could be debated. Thanks to the similar ineptitude of the division rival Mets, Miami had even climbed out of last place in the NL East for a short time. But, no matter where they are in the standings (they're back in last place now), I've consistently maintained that they are the very worst team the entire National League has to offer. That's confirmed by a -150 run differential for the year, which is the second worst in all of baseball (only KC worse). The Fish come into Monday having dropped six straight as they were just swept over the weekend by Philadelphia. There's no light at the end of the tunnel here and I suspect these struggles will continue for the rest of the season. 

The Cardinals find themselves on the fringes of playoff contention. They've definitely helped themselves recently by going 7-3 the L10 games while playing the Cubs, Rockies and Pirates, three other playoff hopefuls. They are still just four games above water (.500) though and four games back of the Wild Card. Thus, the drop in class that this series represents simply must be taken advantage of. In their only previous series vs. Miami this season, they actually dropped two of three. Needless to say, that cannot be repeated here. While the Cards' road record is exactly .500 (28-28), they've outscored opponents by a decent margin in those games & they're 9-5 in the -125 to -175 price range. 

The entirety of this six-game losing skid for Miami has come on the road. A decision was made yday to push back Wei-Yin Chen to today as he's been a lot better here at home (2.18 ERA) than on the road (10.27). But, I'm not sure that really matters when you're team is so bad. Though the Marlins won his previous start vs. St. Louis this year, 11-3, Chen lasted only 4 1/3 innings and gave up two runs. He'll be opposed tonight by Luke Weaver, who has allowed 3 ER or fewer in five consecutive starts. This seems like the best time of year to back Weaver as he went 7-2 in August/September last season. I don't think he'll have much trouble against a lineup that ranks 27th in runs scored and 30th (dead last) in slugging. 8* St. Louis

8* Seattle (4:10 ET): If you've been following along the last few months, then you already know I'm no real fan of the Mariners. It's not that they're a bad team per se. But, in terms of won-loss record, they remain highly overrated. I've consistently pointed out the club's run differential, which is in no way indicative of the overall record. No team in baseball has exceeded its number of "expected" wins (based on run diff) more than this one. While the M's actual record is 63-48, they've actually been outscored this season by 22 runs. That's the run differential you'd expect from a 53-win team, not a 63-win one. (In case you're still unaware, the key for Seattle this year has been an extremely fortunate 27-14 record in one-run games. They're also 8-1 in extra innings). 

But I'm less concerned w/ the team than the actual situation we're playing today. You see Seattle comes into Sunday on the verge of being swept here at home, in a four-game series no less. You just don't see many home teams getting swept in four-game series over the course of the season. So, I'm willing to take a "flier" here on a team that I quite honestly haven't been all that impressed with (see above). Toronto has come in and taken the first three games of this series, all by four or more runs, and to add "insult to injury," they're the ones drawing more support from those in attendance. (With Seattle so close to the Canadian border, this is really the only chance for Jays' fans from Western Canada to cheer their team in person). 

Last night, the Mariners lost as huge favorites on the ML w/ James Paxton on the hill. Their bats have gone quiet, scoring just 11 runs over the course of a losing skid that has now reached five games overall. Jays starter Marco Estrada took a no-hitter into the seventh inning against them Saturday and that was on the heels of their two other starters in the series - Mike Hauschild and Ryan Borucki - earning their respective first career victories. But for today, Seattle should find success against Sam Gaviglio, who has allowed 19 ER in his last 20 1/3 IP, which works out to an 8.51 ERA. His TSR over that timeframe 1-4. The Mariners will counter w/ Mike Leake, who has been durable if nothing else. He's turned in quality starts each of his L3 times out, the last two both coming here at home. I just can't see the M's getting swept at home, so despite my overall view of the team, I'll take 'em Sunday. 8* Seattle

8* Arizona (4:10 ET): The D'backs had lost four in a row to the Giants here at home following an 8-1 setback on Thursday (w/ Greinke on the hill). But they've ended that w/ wins each of the last two days, including 9-3 yday (I was on them Friday in a 6-3 win). My belief is that the Giants are still an overrated ballclub as they've been outscored this season (by 30 runs) despite a .500 record entering play on Sunday. They're also not a very good road team, as evident by their 24-34 record away from AT&T Park. They often forget to "bring their bats" on road trips as they average just 3.6 runs per game. Only three teams - Detroit, Baltimore and San Diego - have scored fewer runs this season on the road. So I look for the D'backs to take this game and series. 

With the events of the last two days, Arizona is back in 1st place in the NL West. They've got a one-game lead over the Dodgers, who are having trouble w/ the Astros this weekend. In an effort to widen their division lead, today the D'backs hand the baseball to Robbie Ray. Now he's his fair share of struggles of late and truthfully has not pitched very well at home this season. He spent basically two months on the DL and hasn't looked like the same pitcher since returning. But he did have two strong starts against the Giants earlier in the year, including one here at Chase Field where he went six innings and allowed only two runs. He is 4-1 in his career against San Fran (10 starts) w/ a 2.84 ERA. One area where he's been very good all year is striking opposing hitters out. Only the Nationals' Max Scherzer has higher K rate per nine innings among NL starters w/ at least 1100 pitches. 

Arizona has been able to jump on Giants pitching early and often each of the last two days w/ B2B five-run first innings. Today, they'll face Derek Holland. While he's pitched better than Ray of late, I question how he'll fare here against an offense that appears to be finding its way. Only once in the last nine games has Arizona NOT scored at least five runs. Another key factor here is the Arizona bullpen, which has the best ERA in the National League. Might this one be closer than the last two games? Possibly. But it'll still end up being a D'backs win nonetheless. 8* Arizona

8* LA Dodgers (9:10 ET): Last night marked the first time the Astros and Dodgers had met since last year's World Series. Just like the 2017 Fall Classic, Houston came out on top, this time by a score of 2-1 behind a strong start from Justin Verlander, who finished w/ 14 K's. All of the scoring came early. These teams could very well end up facing each other again in the World Series as they rank #2 and #4 overall in run differential and have both actually UNDERperformed in terms of wins and losses so far. Despite the setback last night, I fully anticipate the Dodgers bouncing back Saturday. You may know that the Astros have the best middle infield in the game w/ Jose Altuve at 2B and Carlos Correa at SS. Well, both of those All-Stars are currently out of the lineup. 

I have a ton of respect for Houston and what they are able to do, especially on the road where they've gone a ridiculous 37-17 this year, outscoring teams by 2.6 runs per game! No other team can even touch that kind of performance away from home. However, as noted above, they're not at full strength right now. Last weekend saw them get swept for the 1st time all season (at home, by Texas!) and after taking two of three from an overrated Seattle team came last night's win. But a big difference between tonight and last is the quality of pitcher they'll send to the hill. It won't be Verlander, Gerrit Cole or Dallas Keuchel. Instead, it's Lance McCullers, who is 0-3 his L3 starts w/ a 9.22 ERA and 1.903 WHIP. In an Astros rotation that has been remarkably healthy so far (used same five starters the whole way), McCullers is the clear "weak link." It's been 14 runs allowed in 13 2/3 innings those L3 starts w/ 10 walks. 

Houston is the top offensive team on the road this season, but remember they are down the DH here. Last night saw them manage only two runs on four hits. It was the fifth time in the last seven games that they failed to top three runs, a stretch which has seen them average just 3.3 rpg while batting a collective .226. (Only against Seattle did they top three runs). Dodger Stadium is notorious for run suppression and this year has been no different w/ visitors averaging just 3.7 rpg here (.235 BA). Kenta Maeda will toe the rubber for LA tonight and while he's been a bit shaky himself recently, overall it's been a pretty good year. Maeda faced the Astros four times in last year's World Series, all in a relief role, and gave up just a single run in 5 2/3 IP. The Dodgers haven't lost B2B games too many times during this 45-24 run of theirs, which dates back to mid-May. In fact, they've had just four losing streaks during that time. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Milwaukee (7:10 ET): As I'd previously anticipated/discussed, we're finally starting to see Colorado regress a little bit. They've now dropped four of five and three of the losses (including last night here in Milwaukee) have come in walkoff fashion. That might sound a tad bit unlucky, but the reality is the Rockies have been pretty lucky for awhile now, so consider this recent rash of losses their "comeuppance." This is a ballclub that's somehow managed to remain above .500 (currently seven games over) despite being outscored this season. I realize the NL West is very much a four-team race right now, but I consider the Dodgers and D'backs the class of that division. Meanwhile, the Brew Crew are a far more viable playoff contender w/ a +37 run differential and last night was a nice bounce back after getting killed by the Dodgers (21-5!) on Thursday.

The Brew Crew enter the day one game back of the Cubs in the NL Central. They actually have one more win than the Cubbies, but are three back in the loss column. They're now 34-21 at home this year, including 14-4 when priced between -125 and -175 on the money line. They'll hand the ball to rookie Freddy Peralta tonight and that's a good thing, especially considering the opposition. Back in May, Peralta made his big-league debut against these Rockies and took a no-hitter into the sixth inning, finishing w/ 13 strikeouts! That was at Coors Field as well. The Rockies are obviously a far less dynamic offense on the road where they average only 4.3 rpg (down from NL-leading 5.3 at home). In three starts at Miller Park, Peralta has a 0.842 WHIP. He's allowed 3 ER or fewer in all but two of his nine starts and is holding opponents to a .155 batting average w/ 63 K's. 

You have to question the psyche of the Rockies' players after all the close losses in recent days. Closer Wade Davis has blown B2B save opportunities. Their starter Tyler Anderson has been every bit as good as Peralta recently, save for his last time out (allowed 4 runs), but he has a 5.91 career ERA here at Miller Park and curiously has been a bit better at home this year (despite the obvious hitter-friendly conditions). Lack of run support has plagued Anderson and that may be the case again w/ the offense having scored only 34 runs total the L11 games. Milwaukee is also 47-22 in night games this year. 10* Milwaukee

8* Arizona (9:40 ET): Well, the Giants did it again yday, winning for a fourth straight time at Chase Field. Last night may have been the most impressive of the bunch as they beat Zack Greinke, 8-1. However, the majority of that damage came against the Arizona bullpen, not Greinke. Equally as frustrating for the D'backs is the fact they had nearly the same number of hits as the Giants in the lopsided loss. But they were just 3 of 11 w/ RISP and left 12 men on base. With revenge still a factor and San Francisco still overrated (at least in my mind), I'll come back w/ the hosts yet again Friday night as they're big favorites w/ Pat Corbin on the mound. Again, the Giants aren't a particularly good road team (just 24-32 overall), so their success rate here in the desert is a little confounding to say the least.

Something else to note w/ the Giants is their YTD run differential. It's -21, yet they are 56-53 overall on the year. Theoretically, a team should not have a winning record when it's being outscored. The run differential was even worse before winning each of the last four games, so you can really "color me surprised" over last night. But again, this team generally does NOT play well on the road. They average just 3.6 rpg, so last night's late inning barrage seems like an anamoly. I also wouldn't put much faith in tonight's starter Chase Stratton, who will be making his first big-league start in a month. Stratton was demoted after allowing a total of 13 ER in his L2 starts, both coming against Colorado and spent almost a month down on the farm. He's made one relief appearance since being recalled last Thursday.

Corbin has the clear edge in this starting pitching matchup. He's faced the Giants more times than any other opponent in his career, including one start in all four series the teams have played here in '18. His record against them this year is 2-0 w/ a 1.69 ERA. One of those wins was a CG shutout (back on April 17th), here at home. He has 29 strikeouts in 26 2/3 IP this year vs SF and has allowed just 14 hits. Tonight will be his first time starting at home in nearly a month. He has a 0.981 WHIP in 11 starts at Chase Field this season, so I expect him to pitch quite well here. The fact that this will be just the fifth time all season that Arizona closes north of -175 on the ML is pretty telling. 8* Arizona

8* Minnesota (8:10 ET): Kansas City's failed attempt at a sweep yesterday (lost 6-3 to the White Sox) leaves them w/ just one sweep over the last calendar year. It came against the Twins, immediately following the All-Star Break. Not that Minnesota needed any additional edges, but they also had Thursday off. While this season has been nowhere near as good as last year in the Twin Cities, this just might be the easiest win of the season for Minny. There's no excuse for getting swept by the Royals as they own the league's second worst record (34-74) and worst run differential (-191). Yesterday afternoon's loss was a tough one as they gave up four runs in the bottom of the eighth after they'd rallied for three of their own in the top of the frame. That's got to be extremely discouraging for a team that is already "going nowhere fast." 

A big difference between this series and the last one between the teams is venue. It was in KC where the Royals swept the Twins and while they're a lousy team whether at home or on the road, Minnesota is far better here at Target Field where their record is 30-24. (They're 19-34 on the road). The Twins were shutout here on Wednesday, 2-0 by the Indians, but it was only the fifth time all season that they were shutout and their record is 3-1 off the prior four times. The offense should find far more success against this beleaguered Royals staff this weekend, starting w/ tonight's starter, Heath Fillmyer. Granted two of his three starts came against the Red Sox and Yankees, but the Royals have yet to win w/ Fillmyer on the mound this year. He has a 3.94 ERA and 1.437 WHIP. 

Minnesota will go w/ Jake Odorizzi, who isn't exactly having the most dominant year himself. But he did pitch quite well against KC in the last series between the two teams. He went six innings and gave up just two runs (one unearned) on two hits. Yet, the Twins still lost the game, 5-3. That's the definition of a hard-luck decision right there and I like his chances of pitching just as well tonight. The Royals are dead last in all of MLB in runs scored, not to mention they're also 25th in batting average, 27th in OBP and 28th in slugging. I look for the revenge-minded home team to roll in this series opener. 8* Minnesota

8* Hamilton (7:30 ET): Montreal is - quite easily - the worst team in the entire CFL. They've won just one time all season and that was back in Week 3 as 11-pt dogs at Saskatchewan. They've been outscored by 100 pts in six games overall and things have gotten so dire here that the team has decided to bring in Johnny Football as their new starting QB. Ironically, it was tonight's opponent that originally had Manziel's rights before trading him to the Als just a couple weeks ago. Obviously, there will be a lot of hype surrounding this game, but that works to our advantage as Montreal is being WAY overvalued in this spot. Manziel has not played pro football - of any kind - since 2015 and will be starting here just two weeks after coming to Montreal. Lay the points. 

Also helping to undervalue the favorite here is the fact Hamilton is off three consecutive outright defeats. Two were against Saskatchewan (home and home) and the other last week, 21-15 to Ottawa. In the case of the last two losses, turnovers have killed the Ti-Cats as they're -4 in that department. The team is now 2-4 SU on the year (w/ wins over Edmonton and Winnipeg), yet has been outscored by just five points. They absolutely hammered Montreal in both meetings last year, winning by a combined score of 76-16. Granted they lost the game outright, but the fact the Ti-Cats were six-point favorites at Saskatchewan just last month makes them look like a "real steal" by comparison here. 

The last five QB's to make their CFL debuts have all lost. So that's what Manziel is up against here. He will be the fourth different starting QB for the Als in the last four games, something we have not seen from any CFL team this century. I just can't see him playing all that well. Rather, this is a desperate act by a bad team playing at home and looking to boost attendance. Again, the Als are without question the worst team in the league this year and the gap is significant between them and the rest of the field. They are very likely to go all season w/o being favored in a single game. Getting a full TD at home sounds like a value, but not when you're this bad. Consider they've gotten 8.5 or more pts from the oddsmakers in all but one game this season and are being outscored by 16.7 PPG. 8* Hamilton 

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Perhaps we need to come to terms w/ the fact that St. Louis, perennial pennant contenders, simply are nothing more than mediocre in their current state. They're still above .500 mind you, and not that far off the Wild Card chase, but they were very lucky to just take three of four from the Rockies at home. Two of the wins saw them rally in the bottom of the ninth, so the series easily could have gone the other way. Now, lampooning the Cardinals while at the same time endorsing a Pirates club that has an identical record and inferior run differential may seem odd to you. But the bottom line is that the Bucs have been the far better ballclub over the last month, winning 14 of the last 18 games. Tonight is the debut of Chris Archer, their big acquisition at the trade deadline, and thus I expect a strong effort at PNC Park. 

The Pirates have a nice little edge here in that they were off on Thursday while St. Louis was finishing its series w/ the Rockies. The Bucs are off a loss, 6-2 to the Cubs on Wednesday, but haven't dropped B2B games in almost a month. Bringing in Archer was a clear sign that the front office is willing to "go for it" here in 2018. Archer has finished in the top three in strikeouts over in the American League each of the last three seasons. Like most pitchers, he should find things a bit easier in the Senior Circuit. While this season hasn't necessarily been up to his usual standard, Archer is off B2B quality starts, one them being a 13 K performance. 

Unlike the Bucs, St. Louis seems to have its eye on the future rather than the present. It started w/ the sacking of manager Mike Matheny before the All-Star Break. They are 8-7 since the All-Star Break, which is a little surprising seeing as they've recently called up EIGHT minor leaguers. John Gant will get the baseball Friday and he's coming off his shortest stint of the season, 4 2/3 innings vs. the Cubs (Cards lost the game 5-2). Gant also has a 4.22 career ERA vs. Pittsburgh w/ no victories in four appearances. The team has dropped six of his eight starts overall in '18. The Pirates are not only 27-17 vs. the rest of the NL Central this year, they're also 9-5 following an off-day. They're the play here. 8* Pittsburgh

8* Saskatchewan (10:00 ET): After sweeping a home and home w/ Hamilton (were underdogs in both games), the Rough Riders lost at home to Calgary last week, 34-22 as 7.5-pt dogs. Even though they didn't cover, there's no shame in that result, given that they were up against - easily - the best team in the league. This week finds them smack dab in the middle of a Stampeders' sandwich as they'll again face Calgary in Regina next week. They'll certainly have more time to prepare for that rematch (16 days) than they do here vs. Edmonton as it'll be just four days in between games for the Riders when they take the field Thursday night. Tough as that may sound, the points are plentiful here and the team is 3-1 ATS as a dog TY w/ three outright wins.

Edmonton is 4-2 SU (2-4 ATS) and has a claim to be CFL's second best team. They hammered lowly Montreal last week, 44-23, as 10.5-pt road chalk. That game took place on Thursday, so it's a full week off for the Eskimoes. But after dominating the Als so thoroughly (outgained them 513-303), might this be a bit of a letdown spot for the home team? I certainly think that could be the case. Last week was also just the second time that the Eskimoes covered the spread. Two of their four wins have been by three points or less. While their defense remains one of the league's best, they are allowing a virtually identical number of points per game to Saskatchewan. I'm not sure the offense is prolific enough to make up the difference required to cover the spread.

The Riders are also getting back two key contributors for this game, one on each side of the ball. QB Zach Collaros is expected to make his season debut Thursday night and that obviously makes the offense a whole lot more dynamic. Originally, Collaros wasn't going to return to Week 10, so this early return is a key bonus. He's the bigger of the two returns, but DB Nick Marshall should definitely help on the other side of the ball as well. Plus, Marshall being back means Duron Carter is back to being a slot receiver. While the number of PPG allowed are nearly identical from the two defenses here, Saskatchewan allows fewer YPG and I believe will have the edge at the LOS. They like to the run the ball on offense and can exploit a poor Edmonton run defense. In a divisional matchup like this, my view is that a spread like this is simply too high. Edmonton is just 7-15 ATS its L22 home games while Saskatchewan is 8-2 SU/ATS following a loss. 8* Saskatchewan

8* Arizona (9:40 ET): This will be the second time in three starts that Madison Bumgarner checks in as the underdog. I cautioned about being tempted to play him the last time and, in fact, played AGAINST he and the Giants in the spot. This was 7/21 in Oakland and sure enough the A's prevailed 4-3 w/ MadBum lasting only four innings and issuing a season-high six walks. Now is that performance indicative of what kind of pitcher he truly is? Hardly. Last time out, he bounced back w/ a gem of an effort at home vs. Milwaukee. But, Bumgarner is still winless on the road this season (0-4 TSR) w/ a 5.06 ERA and 1.594 WHIP. Here, not only does he have a sub-.500 career record vs. Arizona, but he'll be up against Zack Greinke, who is lights out at Chase Field. 

I also happen to think the Giants are a bit overrated coming in off three consecutive victories. Two of those were against San Diego, who is obviously terrible. You already had the fact that the team is playing "above its head," given that they are a game above .500, but have actually been outscored by 28 runs over the course of the season. Also, Arizona has revenge. They were actually swept by the Giants here at home just a little over a month ago. My view is that it's highly unlikely for San Francisco to turn the same "trick" twice. They aren't even a very good road team (23-32 record) as they're being outscored by nearly a full run per game in such contests. Arizona might only be 28-26 at Chase Field this season (surprising given they are in first place), but they have a run differential here than indicates that they've played better than that record. 

Both teams had Wednesday off. The D'backs are 10-2 in this role while the Giants are 7-4. Both are sending aces to the bump tonight. While Bumgarner has mostly been good, I already mentioned his failure to win even a single decision on the road this season. On the other hand, Greinke has a 2.39 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 11 home starts this season (5-1 WL record). He's been just plain filthy of late, posting a 0.79 ERA and 0.573 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which have resulted in team victories. Over his L7 starts, Greinke has a 1.16 ERA and 0.836 WHIP w/ the team going 6-1. With revenge and Greinke far more "affordable" than usual, I'm all over the home team in this one. 8* Arizona

8* Chicago (8:00 ET): I can only assume that it is Baltimore's "preseason reputation" that is responsible for the early line move in this year's Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio. Under HC John Harbaugh, the Ravens have gone a remarkable 28-12 SU in the preseason including a perfect 4-0 three of the last four seasons. Not only that, but they were also a perfect 4-0 ATS last season (also 4-0 SU). Given that preseason lines are generally short, the ATS record (27-13) isn't that much different than the SU mark. When it comes to handicapping the preseason, so much comes down to the simple question of motivation. Obviously, Harbaugh's teams have proven to consistently have that edge over their opponents this time of year. But, for this game, I expect it to be the Bears that come out as the more motivated side. This is their first game under new HC Matt Nagy and I'm taking the points. 

I view the Bears as a potential darkhorse in the NFC North this season. Minnesota and Green Bay are the obvious favorites, but don't be surprised if the Monsters of the Midway make it three playoff teams from the old "Black & Blue" division. Nagy's expertise is on the offensive side of the ball (comes over from the Chiefs where he was OC) and will be expected to tutor second year QB Mitchell Trubisky, who has a bevy of new weapons this year. The front office went out and added the following receivers via FA: Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel & (tight end) Trey Burton. For the defensive side of the ball, Nagy made a smart move and retained DC Vic Fangio, the one thing worth keeping from the failed Jox Fox regime. The Bears actually had a good defense LY as they ranked in the top 10 in both yards and points allowed. 

Baltimore is obviously the more "known commodity" here, but that could lead to complacency. Despite still being buried by the albatross that is Joe Flacco's contract, the Ravens are thinking playoffs for 2018, which will be GM Ozzie Newsome's final season at the helm. I seriously doubt Flacco will play much here, if at all. That leaves the reigns to rookie Lamar Jackson, a former Heisman winner that is still learning the playbook, and Robert Griffin III, who was out of football entirely last year. That's hardly inspiring. Trubisky is certainly more likely to play than is Flacco and so are some of the Bears' starters. You have to think they'll want to impress their new HC and as underdogs, I'll gladly take them. 8* Chicago

analysis soon

8* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): This battle of bottom-feeders may not seem all that appealing at first glance, but the White Sox will be looking to avoid getting swept by the Royals and that makes them an attractive play to me Thursday afternoon. As bad as the White Sox are, the Royals have been worse this season. KC is dead last in all of MLB in run differential (-189) and are the only team w/ a worse ERA than Chicago's staff. Going back a full calendar year, they've pulled off only one sweep, that coming at home against Minnesota right after the All-Star Break. Given their poor 19-36 record on the road this year (also just 15-28 in day games), I have serious doubts that they'll be able to repeat the feat here. Thus, look for the home team to salvage the finale of this three-game set. 

Now the White Sox certainly aren't "gangbusters" at home, or in day games for that matter. Also, last night was the FOURTH time in the past seven games they allowed 10+ runs. They're 1-6 overall during that stretch. But last night saw them go 2 for 16 w/ RISP, which signals to me the loss was more about missed opportunity rather than simply not playing well. Getting swept by the Royals at home would be quite the embarrassment, so I anticipate the players will be motivated here. One player in particular that should be highly motivated is starter Reynaldo Lopez, who has revenge on his mind for a loss to the Royals last month. He gave up five runs in 7 2/3 IP, which was the start of an ugly three-game stretch for the right-hander. Last time out may have been "rock bottom" as Lopez gave up eight runs to Toronto. But he still has a decent 1.166 WHIP here at Guaranteed Rate Field. 

The recent numbers from Royals' starter Brad Keller are no better than Lopez's, yet somehow he has a 2-1 TSR his L3 starts (White Sox have lost the last four times Lopez has taken the mound). That 2-1 TSR is in spite of Keller posting a 7.04 ERA and 1.825 WHIP. Last time out may have been the shocker of the year. Even though Keller allowed four runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Yankees, the Royals were able to win 10-5 as +340 underdogs on the money line! It was the second time in three starts than Keller had more walks (3) than strikeouts (1). The other one was against these White Sox as he got hammered for five runs in just 2 2/3 IP w/ four walks and just one strikeout. Coming into this series, the White Sox were 7-2 against the Royals this year. So I can't see them being swept at home. 8* Chi White Sox

10* St. Louis (8:15 ET): Colorado won yday, 6-3, setting up this "rubber match" of sorts Thursday night at Busch Stadium. Truthfully, the Cardinals should feel somewhat fortunate that they're not on the verge of being swept here. On Tuesday, they rallied back from a 4-1 deficit to win in 10 innings. Last night saw them again struggle offensively as they had just one run entering the final frame. Rockies' starting pitching has been shockingly good of late and should be respected away from the constraints of their home park. But their offense isn't much to "sneeze at" on the road as they're averaging just 4.3 rpg outside of Coors Field this season. Lately, they haven't been doing much hitting at all. Before yday, they'd averaged just 2.9 rpg over the last seven contests w/ a .237 team batting average.

Kyle Freeland will start for Colorado tonight. He's got a 5-0 TSR his L5 outings w/ a 2.76 ERA over the last three. But, his WHIP is 1.408 over those L3 starts as well, which indicates he's been anything but dominant. He's walked six batters the last two starts alone and strikeout numbers from Freeland remain pretty pedestrian. Colorado may "rue the day" they chose not to make any additions at the deadline as they've been a pretty clear overachiever to this point (-1 run differential) and it's pretty crazy to think they enter the day tied w/ the Dodgers (+91 run diff) in the NL West. I do not think the Rockies will be able to maintain their current win percentage, if that run differential stays the same over the course of the year.

Luke Weaver will start here for St. Louis, who is desperately trying to remain relevant in the playoff race itself. They enter Thursday 4.5 games back of the Wild Card. Despite having an inferior record compared to Colorado, they do own the slightly superior run differential (+13). They're also 30-22 off a loss. Weaver was very good his last time out, which resulted in a 5-2 win over the Cubs, as he gave up just two runs - both on solo HR's. Three of Weaver's four starts in July were very good as he allowed only five runs in 20 IP. The other was short, and he allowed three runs in four innings, but that was in Wrigley. This is a much weaker offense he'll be facing here, one that had scored four runs or fewer in seven straight games prior to yday. I look for the Cardinals to win this game and possibly the series (wraps up Thursday afternoon). 10* St. Louis

8* Houston (4:05 ET): These two AL West rivals are separated by only four games in the standings and have split the first two games of this three-game set. However, to call them "evenly matched" would be HIGHLY misleading. What I've written about each of the last two days, and will continue to harp on here, is how the respective run differentials of the two teams tell a VERY different story than the standings do. Houston has outscored its opponents by a MLB-high 180 runs so far this season. Seattle has actually been OUTSCORED, despite being 19 games over .500. In terms of actual vs. expected wins (based on run diff), this is a matchup of the biggest "underachiever" (Astros) and underachiever (Mariners) in all of baseball. Thus, I'll look for Houston to take the series.

The 'Stros were my 10* Game of the Week last night and they came through, winning 5-2. That win actually snapped a season-worst five-game losing streak, which saw them get swept for the 1st time all year (by Texas over the weekend). Key to the Astros success this season has been their remarkable play on the road where they average 5.5 rpg (tied for most in MLB w/ Oakland), which in turn is responsible for them being +2.5 rpg away from home, easily the best mark in all of baseball. They are also 23-12 in day games so far and I like the fact they'll be sending Dallas Keuchel to the bump this afternoon. Keuchel, a former Cy Young, has been great of late w/ a 1.93 ERA and 0.964 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, he did lose as a huge favorite (-260 vs. Texas), but prior to that the team had won each of the five times he'd taken the hill. There have only been two instances all year where the team lost B2B Keuchel starts. One was in April and none since June.

Keuchel is 0-2 vs. Seattle this season, but he's 8-7 against them all-time w/ a 3.17 ERA. I think the third time will be the charm this afternoon. The Astros' offense failed to show up either of the two previous tries (just 1 run both games), but that should NOT be the case here against Wade LeBlanc, who - like most in the Seattle rotation - has overachieved. Houston beat LeBlanc back in June, getting to him for three runs in four innings (final score was 7-5). LeBlanc's ERA in seven career appearances vs. Houston is 5.32. He's actually made two additional appearances vs. them in '18 (non-starts) and has given up a total of seven runs on 12 hits in 8 IP. Now that the losing skid is over, look for the Astros to go back to dominating. 8* Houston

8* Run Line Toronto (3:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I'm taking the Blue Jays +1.5. Toronto is on the verge of being swept for a second time by Oakland this season. They lost all four games at home earlier in the year (May) and have gone 0 for 2 here in Oakland this weekend, losing by scores of 10-1 and 6-2. While the A's seem to be surging towards a possible Wild Card, they've definitely overachieved some, as they've got the run differential of a 60-win team (actual reecord is 63-46), although nowhere to the degree that the team they're chasing (Seattle) has. That little bit of overachieving can be directly tied to a fortunate 19-9 record in one-run games. We're "shielded" from that particular result here and though the Jays definitely are the inferior ballclub here, I don't think their YTD record vs. the A's is properly reflective of the difference between the two teams. Getting swept by the same opponent twice is pretty rare. Take the +1.5. 

Marcus Stroman starts today for Toronto and should play a significant role in the Jays doing no worse than a one-run loss here. Stroman is off B2B solid starts where he's allowed just three runs in 13+ IP. Granted, those two starts came against the White Sox and Orioles, two of the very worst teams in all of baseball. But save for one head-scratching start against the Mets on the Fourth of July, Stroman has been pretty good overall since returning from the DL back in late June. He's allowed 2 ER or less in five of the seven starts. Something to remember w/ this opponent (Oakland) is that they are strangely inferior at the plate when here at home compared to on the road. For the season, the A's are averaging just 3.9 rpg in Oakland (.227 BA). They lead all of MLB in scoring on the road at 5.5 rpg. 

Stroman is the best starter Toronto will send to the mound in this series, so perhaps he's the one that can finally take advantage of the A's hitters not being as prolific here by the Bay. As for Oakland, they counter w/ Sean Manaea, who likes pitching here at home (0.818 WHIP). However, his results haven't been that great as he's just 3-4 in 10 starts (6-4 TSR). Getting back to the Oakland offense, remember that they only scored four runs this past weekend in three games at Coors Field. The A's have actually been outscored here at home this season and w/ the line currently doing some "curious things," I'll side w/ the road team +1.5 here. 8* Run Line Toronto (+1.5)

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): These two NL Playoff hopefuls continue a three-game set Tuesday w/ a pitching matchup of Wade Miley vs. Walker Buehler. Milwaukee took last night's series opener (which featured a 23-minute delay to a power outage), 5-2, by jumping on Kenta Maeda early. The loss was actually the Dodgers' second in a row, but I can't see that streak continuing, given how well they've played over the last couple months (39-21 L60 games, including 16-9 in July). As for Milwaukee, they too failed to sweep their last series, losing on Sunday. But they've been a lot more mediocre this month, going just 14-13 overall. In a prior series vs. the Dodgers (concluded less than 10 days ago), they won just one of the three games and that was at Miller Park.

Having won Monday, Milwaukee probably feels pretty good about itself as they send the veteran Miley to the bump. That's because Miley, a Los Angeles native, has enjoyed a great deal of success at Chavez Ravine throughout his career. He's 3-0 w/ a 2.41 ERA in six career starts here. He also pitched well against the Dodgers in the last series between the two teams, allowing only an unearned run over six innings. However, the Brewers went onto lose that game, 6-4. Miley has a surprisingly low ERA in his five starts this season (2.02), but his WHIP (1.388) indicates that number may be a little misleading. Strikeout numbers are unimpressive for Miley and in fact he has more walks than K's this season. That's never a good sign. I do not expect him to pitch as well here as he did the last time vs. the Dodgers. 

Buehler has also pitched well at Chavez Ravine, posting a 1.78 ERA and 0.764 WHIP (six starts) here in this, his rookie season. There's a little concern after he tied a season-high by giving up five runs last time out. But that was on the road (at Philadelphia). He's yet to allow more than 2 ER in any home start, which is a good sign obviously. So is the fact they have only one three-game losing streak since mid-May. In fact, this is just the second time in July that they've dropped B2B games. They are 17-5 the L22 times they've been off a loss. So the odds are high that they'll bounce back tonight. I'm on 'em. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Houston (10:10 ET): The Astros did not work out for me last night as they were shutout by the Mariners, 2-0. It was the 'Stros fifth loss in a row overall, which is their worst such streak all year (previous high was three). Over the weekend, they were swept for the first time all season - by the Rangers. Despite this, I fully expect a bounce back tonight in Seattle. As discussed yday, the gap in the standings between these two AL West may be down to just a few games (3, to be exact), but the respective levels of play this season are not even close. While the Mariners have actually been outscored this season (despite being 20 games over .500), Houston has a run differential of +177. Based on the runs scored vs. allowed formula, the Astros' division lead should be TWENTY-ONE games, not three! 

Charlie Morton will toe the rubber for the visitors tonight. In his only prior start against Seattle this year, Morton pitched quite well. He allowed threw seven shutout innings of three-hit ball w/ eight strikeouts and no walks. Houston won the game 9-2. That's been part of an incredible 2018 renaissance for Morton as he now stands at 11-2 in 20 starts w/ a 2.89 ERA and 1.158 WHIP. Last time out, he experienced a bit of hard luck as he allowed just one run (on a solo HR) in six innings, but the team lost 3-2 at Colorado. That was the start of the current five-game slide. Morton may have started this season-high losing streak (not his fault, obviously), but I'm calling for him to also be the one to stop it.

The Astros' offense also needs to pick it up. They've scored just 10 runs total during the five-game slide and last night was just the sixth time they've been shutout all season. They've won each of the last three times after being shutout coming into this game. History suggests to expect an offensive explosion as they are averaging 5.6 rpg on the road this year. That's led to them having - by far - the best road run differential in the league at +2.5 rpg. Now they don't have Carlos Correa or Jose Altuve right now, but I'll still take what's left against Mike Leake, whose 14-7 team start record is a total overachievement given his 4.15 ERA and 1.289 WHIP. We've already started to see some regression from Leake as the team has won just one of his last four starts and that was his last time out. I'll continue to maintain that the Mariners are highly overrated as their overall WL record has been propped up by a MLB-best 27-14 record in one-run games. Whether it's by one run or 10 runs, it'll be the Astros winning tonight. 10* Houston

10* Houston (10:10 ET): The gap between these two AL West rivals currently stands at four games. That's pretty preposterous given the respective run differentials. Division leader Houston has outscored its opposition by a MLB-high 179 runs while second place Seattle has actually been OUTSCORED (by three runs). In terms of actual vs. expected wins (again, this is according to run differential), you won't find a bigger underachiever (Houston) or overachiever (Seattle) in all of baseball. The 67-40 Astros have played to the level of a 74-win team according to run diff while a Mariners team that is currently 62-43 has played to the level of a 52-win team. So the 4-game gap that actually exists "should" be 18 games according to run differential. I look for that discrepancy to become somewhat rectified this week at Safeco Field, starting tonight. 

For Monday's series opener, each side will be sending arguably its best pitcher to the mound. For Houston, that's Gerrit Cole. What a season he's had after coming over from Pittsburgh. The Astros have won 17 of his 21 starts w/ Cole posting a 2.54 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Those numbers rank 5th and 4th respectively among AL starters and he's also averaging a phenomenal 12.4 per nine innings. Last time out, he allowed just two runs on five hits in six innings. He also had nine strikeouts, making it four straight starts w/ 7+ K's. Both runs allowed Tuesday at Colorado came on doubles in the 7th inning. Still, Houston wound up winning, 8-2. The team was just swept (for the 1st time ALL year!), over the weekend by Texas. But that was at home. What's unique about this year's Astros is how dominant they've been on the road. They're outscoring teams by 2.5 rpg away from Minute Maid Park, easily the best differential on the road in all of baseball. 

Seattle counters Cole w/ James Paxton. This will be his 1st start in 17 days as he was a scratch last Tuesday due to a bad back. Thus, he'll likely be on a pitch count tonight. Personally, I think this is a great spot to fade Paxton as he hadn't looked the same over the past month anyway. It's a real "baptism" by fire facing the Astros in his first start back. The Mariners just avoided getting swept w/ an 8-5 win over the Angels on Sunday as they scored all but one of those runs in the top of the first. Don't look for that kind of cluster luck at Cole's expense. Neither pitcher has lost to this opponent this year w/ Paxton holding a pair of wins against the 'Stros and Cole having thrown seven scoreless innings here at Safeco back in April. It boils down to Paxton being a great fade in this spot and Houston simply being the much better team. They're also going to highly motivated to bounce back after this past weekend's debacle. 10* Houston

8* Run Line Toronto (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Blue Jays +1.5. Oakland got a "cold dose" of reality over the weekend as they got swept out in Colorado. Despite playing in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field AND being the highest scoring road team in all of MLB, they managed all of four runs in the entire three-game series. Now, upon their return home, I feel it will be a cold dose of another "r" word, that being revenge. Toronto has it, stemming from a four-game sweep that occurred North of the Border all the way back in May. You don't see that happen too often (a home team getting swept in a four-game series), so the Jays will come in highly motivated. They do no worse than a one-run loss here. 

While Oakland was getting swept in Colorado, Toronto took two of three from the lowly White Sox over the weekend. Now, they were very close to losing the series and dropping B2B games on Sunday. But they scored five runs in the top of the ninth for the 7-4 win. Overall, it was a good weekend for the offense, as they tallied 22 runs against White Sox pitching. They did lose rookie Lourdes Gurriel Jr to an ankle injury, but should be just fine here against A's starter Edwin Jackson, who has slipped recently w/ 5.21 ERA his L3 starts. Though the team still won (6-5 over Texas), Jackson is off his worst start of the season, having allowed five runs in 4 1/3 innings.

Another thing that should concern Oakland is their somewhat massive offensive decline at home. While they lead all of MLB in runs scored on the road (5.6 per game), they drop all the way down to a mystifying 3.7 rpg at home w/ a .224 batting average. That should be "music to the ears" of Jays' starter Marco Estrada, who comes off the DL here to start for the first time in almost a month. Normally, I might consider that a time to fade, but we're getting an additional 1.5 runs to work w/ here and Estrada threw a quality start against Oakland earlier this year. It was a hard-luck loss to be sure as Estrada allowed just three runs and seven hits in 6 2/3 innings and finished w/ a 6-0 KW ratio. But he was supported w/ only one run. I'll call for more offense tonight from Toronto and Estrada to take care of the rest. 8* Run Line Toronto (+1.5)

8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Last Tuesday, Wei-Yen Chen and the Marlins upset Julio Teheran and the Braves 9-3 as +110 ML underdogs. I just can't see "lightning striking twice," especially w/ the scene now shifting to SunTrust Park where the Braves were big winners yday, 7-0, behind a near no-hitter from Sean Newcomb. Now that almost "no-no" (one out short!) only helped the Braves avoid what would have been a sweep at the hands of the Dodgers. But going from facing LA to Miami is a significant drop in class even if the former is coming off B2B wins over Washington (at home). Even w/ the two wins, the Marlins were only able to salvage a series split w/ the Nats and they remain well below .500 (46-61) and also own the worst run diffrerential in the entire National League at -129. Atlanta is tops in the NL East in run diff (+62) and I like them a lot here w/ starter Teheran out for revenge. 

Teheran did not pitch well - at all - six days ago against the Marlins. Given the final score, that shouldn't come as a shock, but it was still jarring to see him get blasted for nine runs - seven earned - in just 4 1/3 IP. Troubling is the fact it was Teheran's second bad start against Miami this year, the other one coming here at home (back in May). But I'm willing to say the "third time will be the charm" as he's working on an added day of rest here. Originally, he was set to pitch Sunday, but both he and Newcomb were pushed back a day. Considering how well that worked for Newcomb (who had struggled mightily this season), I'd say there's a lot of hope for Teheran here. He threw 6 1/3 shutout innings in his last home start and has given up just one run total his L13 IP here. 

Meanwhile, the home-road splits for Chen are pretty striking. Four of his last five starts have been in Miami and he's allowed 1 ER or less in all of them. But in the one away from home, he gave up seven runs in 4 1/3 innings. The end result was an ugly 18-4 loss at Washington and that was by no means the first time Chen got beat up on the road. His ERA and WHIP in eight road starts this season are 10.47 and 2.021 respectively. That's just brutal. Overall, Miami is a terrible road team, getting outscored 1.8 rpg. They allow the highest number of rpg on the road (5.9) in the entire National League. I think the Braves re-discovered their offense yday and will beat up on Chen tonight. 8* Atlanta

8* LA Angels (4:05 ET): We're starting to see what I felt was an inevitable decline for the Mariners finally take hold. The truth is that this team has overachieved all season long and is nowhere near as dominant as its 61-43 record might suggest. After dropping the first two games of this series, the M's have now actually been outscored over the course of the season (-6 run differential). How is that even possible, you ask? Well, they've happened to go a MLB-best 27-14 in one-run games, not to mention 8-1 in extra innings. That lone extra inning loss happened to occur Friday night here in LA, then they were drubbed yday by a score of 11-5. Consider that the Angels actually have a far better YTD run differential (+39) despite being eight games back of Seattle in the AL West. They are the better team here. 

Offensively, the Angels are in a zone right now as last night marked the fourth time in the last seven games that they scored 10 runs or more. Meanwhile, since the All-Star Break, Seattle has been in a funk at the plate. They've been held to three runs or fewer in seven of the last nine games and that doesn't even include last night's drubbing. The hot Angels hitters will see a familiar face on the mound today, that being Marco Gonzales, who they've already faced four times this year and twice this month! Now they've yet to beat Gonzales, but three of the previous four matchups came in the Pacific Northwest. Here in LA, I'm banking on the "fifth time being the charm." While the two starts earlier this month were quality, the other two for Gonzales against the Angels were not.

The Halos will turn to Felix Pena as they look to sweep their division rival right out of town. Though only 3-3 in six starts this season, Pena has a 2.73 ERA and 1.247 WHIP, so he's pitched relatively well. In fact, he's allowed no more than 3 ER in any start. Last time out, despite a quality start, he lost as a big favorite (-185 on ML) to the White Sox. But that wasn't necessarily his fault; he got no run support until the 8th inning, well after he'd been pulled. Unlike Gonzales, Pena will benefit from an "unfamiliarity" factor as the Mariners have yet to face him. While a good home team, Seattle is nothing more than pedestrian on the road. 8* LA Angels

10* San Francisco (4:05 ET): You don't see road teams come in and achieve a four-game sweep very often, so the odds are against Milwaukee winning here. Sure enough, the Brew Crew have NEVER swept a four-game series here in San Fran, whether you're talking AT&T Park or Candlestick. Now they've obviously played well this weekend, thus opening up a nice lead in the National League Wild Card race. But history is against them today in more ways than one. They're just 17-26 in day games this season and just 4-12 on Sundays (some obvious overlap there). The Giants came into this series sporting a 31-18 record at home and although they've largely overachieved in staying above .500 this season, I think they're a great play this afternoon.  

Today's pitching matchup is an interesting one as Junior Guerra and Andrew Suarez are two of only 13 NL starters have to sub-4.00 ERAs and a losing record. For Milwaukee, Guerra's recent decline is a little more worrisome. While the team has won five of his last six turns, he has posted a 1.67 WHIP in his L3 starts. That's largely owed to one terrible start at Pittsburgh back on 7.13, but he also gave up three unearned runs his last time out, which was his only start since the All-Star Break. Guerra also hasn't struck out many batters over his L3 starts. 

Suarez has pitched better than Guerra recently, giving up just nine runs total his L4 starts. Yet he has nothing to show for it as he's in danger of a winless July. Maybe some "home cooking" is what he needs as he's got a 3.35 ERA and 1.014 WHIP in eight starts at AT&T Park this season. The Giants' last win happened to come w/ Suarez on the hill, Tuesday vs. Seattle. I just can't see the Giants getting swept at home. 10* San Francisco

8* Run Line Atlanta (1:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Braves at +1.5. With the Phillies losing each of the last two days, there was a great opportunity for Atlanta to make a move in the NL East. Alas, the opportunity has been wasted. Entering Sunday, the Braves will simply be looking to avoid getting swept by the red-hot Dodgers here at SunTrust Park. To call the last three days "disappointing" would be putting it mildly as the home team has been outscored 17-4 (facing Rich Hill, Clayton Kershaw and Alex Wood). Such a performance from Atlanta here at home is quite rare. Fortunately for them, the old handicapping mentality of a four-game sweep at home being rare applies here. I'll say they do no worse than a one-run loss this afternoon. 

Now, it's quite obvious that beating the Dodgers is no small feat. There was a time early in the season when LA was dead last in MLB in net units. But they've turned it around and now seized control of the NL West thanks to winning 43 of their last 63 games. That said, not only are four game sweeps as the road team rare, so too has been sweeping the Braves. The last time the Dodgers swept the Braves in a four-game series was 1990! Ross Stripling will the starter tasked w/ the job and while he's generally pitched well this season, he's coming off an outing where he allowed five runs in 4 2/3 innings. Considering he allowed 3 HR's, the Dodgers should feel fortunate that they were still able to win that game (7-6 over the Phillies). The team is 4-0 in Stripling starts in July, but he's allowed 4+ ER in two of those.

The Braves have now dropped 13 of 18, thanks to a pretty severe offensive decline. In addition to scoring only four runs in this series, they've averaged just 2.2 rpg those L18 games. But, for most of the season, they've been near the top of the league in scoring at home. So, it's just a matter of time before they starting swinging the bats better. I'm also encouraged by the way today's starter Sean Newcomb pitched his last time out. Granted, the offense showed up that day (Braves won 12-1), but Newcomb allowed just one run - on a solo HR - over six strong innings. The team had dropped his last five starts previous to that, but he's still 9-5 in 20 starts w/ a 3.41 ERA and 1.279 WHIP. 8* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5)

10* Over Stampeders/Rough Riders (9:00 ET): Calgary is undefeated so far (5-0), having allowed 14 pts or fewer in every game. Because of that defensive performance, the Under is also 5-0 for them. The Under is also 5-0 the L5 meetings w/ Western Division rival Saskatchewan. But tonight's O/U line is really low and w/ the Stamps averaging a healthy 29.0 PPG, all it should take here is a mediocre offensive effort from Saskatchewan for the Over to cash. That's what I'm calling for. 

At this point, there's no denying that Calgary is again the class of the league. They've scored the most points in the league while also giving up the fewest. Every other team in the league has a least two losses and no one can touch the Stampeders' +99 point differential. The next best point diff in the league belongs to Winnipeg (+62) and rival Edmonton is the only other squad above +5. QB Bo Levi Mitchell appears to be fine and will be a go Saturday night. While perhaps we shouldn't read too much into it, the Stamps did beat the Rough Riders 39-12 in the preseason. 

The Riders come into this big Week 7 matchup off B2B upsets, both over Hamilton in a home-and-home. But this will obviously be a big step up in class for them as they were only 1-2 SU before the pair of upsets occurred. Last week saw them achieve season-highs in both points (31) and total yards (396). They very likely won't be touching those numbers here, but they also won't have to (for our purposes). The Over is 7-3 in Saskatchewan's L10 July games and this one should pretty easily "sneak" past the number. 10* Over Stampeders/Rough Riders

8* Arizona (8:40 ET): It's pretty surprising that the D'backs are only 5-3 head to head w/ the Padres this season, given the respective ends of the spectrum where the two have resided for most of the season. But they had no problem winning here in San Diego last night, doing so 6-2 behind a strong effort from Zack Greinke. While the offense has generally failed to impress in '18, they should have their way tonight against embattled Padres' starter Tyson Ross, who they absolutely destroyed earlier this month. Back on 7.7, they scored eight times off Ross - in just two innings - in what ended up being a 20-5 victory. Ross had lost his previous five decisions before winning his last time out. Meanwhile, Arizona starter Pat Corbin has a 2.23 ERA w/ 41 K's in his L6 starts (no HR allowed). 

Working on seven days' rest his last time out, Corbin threw 70 of his 98 pitches for strikes and was able to induce 18 swings and misses, a very good number. Despite a decreased velocity, he's still averaging 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings. He's had a surprising lack of success against the Padres in his career, but did hold them to just two runs (in 6 IP) earlier this year. Pitching has NOT been an issue for Arizona this season (allow just 3.9 rpg) nor has been playing on the road where they've gone 30-23 overall. It's not like San Diego is a good home either; their record at Petco Park this season is only 19-31 and they're being outscored by a ghastly 1.2 rpg. 

Ross has been a lot better since getting crushed by the D'backs three weeks ago, but I don't see that as the start of anything special. The team is actually 12-8 in his 20 starts this season (6-0 when he does NOT factor into the decision), but that's in spite of a 4.37 ERA and 1.297 WHIP. Both of those numbers actually go UP here at home. Since getting within four games over .500 last month, San Diego has dropped 26 of its last 34 games. I don't need much of a reason to fade the last place team in the NL West as they aren't any good offensively (28th or lower in runs scored, batting average, OBP and slugging) and shown no signs of "life" recently. 8* Arizona

8* Washington (7:10 ET): Sometimes, one teams just "owns" another. That is obviously the case when it comes to the NL East "rivalry" between the Nationals and Marlins. The former is 8-1 this season against the latter, including easy wins (10-3 and 9-1) in the first two games of this weekend series. The domination really extends beyond just this year, however, as the Nats have taken 21 of the 28 total meetings since the start of last season. They are 5-0 at Miami in 2018. I see no reason why the trend won't continue tonight w/ Gio Gonzalez on the mound. There's no denying that the Nats have been one of baseball's biggest underachievers this season, but this is pretty clearly a "get well" series against the team that owns the National League's worst run differential (-135).

Washington was actually below .500 before their current three-game win streak began (now 52-51 overall), but they've outscored their opponents this season by a healthy 44 run margin. That tells me that they're due for better results moving forward. That +44 run differential is actually better than the first place team in the NL East, Philadelphia, who is "only" +30. Yet, somehow the Nats are six games back. Look for that gap to get rectified though in the coming days. Gonzalez is off one of his shakier efforts of the year, but the southpaw doesn't allow more than 3 ER very often. Meanwhile, the Washington offense has scored 26 runs the L3 games. They've been shutout three times in Gonzalez's last six starts (and scored just SEVEN runs total!), but they'll make up for that tonight.

While Washington has clearly underachieved in '18, Miami has actually overachieved. That sounds strange to say for a 44-61 team, but according to run differential, the Marlins have played to the level of a 38-win team. That gap between actual and expected wins is the largest in the entire NL and second largest in all of baseball (Seattle). The Fish had only three hits last night and are 27th in runs scored for the year. They'll start a rookie tonight, Trevor Richards, who does come in off B2B quality starts. But .. we're still looking at a 4.41 ERA and 1.457 WHIP for the year from him. Given what we've seen over the last two games, I see no reason why Miami would be able to "put it together" tonight.  Make it another win for the Nationals. 8* Washington 

10* NY Mets (7:05 ET): From 7.11 to 7.24 (bookending the All-Star Break), Pittsburgh won 11 straight games. I called for that losing streak to come to an end Wednesday though and that it did, in shutout fashion no less, in Cleveland. They lost again Thursday, this time at home, in the series opener to the Mets. But they bounced back Friday w/ a 5-4 win. I'm on the record as saying the Bucs are likely to "give a little back" in the coming weeks as that 11-game run "reeked" of randomness. I'm also on the record as saying the Mets' Jacob deGrom may be the unluckiest pitcher in recent memory. Despite possessing a 1.71 ERA and 0.967 WHIP, deGrom somehow is only 5-5 in his 20 starts (w/ an 8-12 TSR). But I'll call for him to get the win here against a team that has been overachieving of late. 

The "somehow" that's responsible for deGrom's poor team start record is pretty easy identify as it's a clear lack of run support. Over his L16 starts, the Mets have topped five runs just once and that was a 12-2 win at hitter-friendly Coors Field. They've scored three runs or fewer 13 times during that stretch! But I'll call for the offense to support him today, despite the fact that Pirates starter Trevor Williams comes in riding an 11-inning scoreless streak. Williams is hardly durable as he's gone more than six innings just two times all season. His WHIP isn't very good over his L3 starts (1.50) and it's not like the Bucs' bullpen is lights out. Note that his last start was shortened by rain, allowing the Pirates to prevail 7-0 in Cleveland. 

Meanwhile, we pretty much "know" what we are gonna get from deGrom. He's gone 17 straight starts w/ allowing 3 ER or fewer. Last time out, he was outstanding as he struck out 10 batters in eight innings. He's now gone eight innings each of his L3 starts. Unfortunately though, there was an error that opened the door for him allowing two runs Monday vs. San Diego, then he got hit w/ another (unearned) and the Mets wound up losing 3-2. However, don't let that result mask the fact deGrom threw a first pitch strike to 26 of the 31 batters he faced. Or the fact, he still leads the NL in ERA (and is 2nd in WHIP). deGrom is the "great equalizer" here and long overdue for better results. At the same time, Pittsburgh is "due" for a downturn. 10* NY Mets

8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): The Cardinals have a bit of a built-in advantage here as they had Thursday off while the Cubs were wrapping up a series w/ the D'backs. They're also at home. Now, like their overall record, the Cards are just a 50/50 proposition at Busch Stadium. They've actually been outscored here over the course of the season. But if there was ever a time to get going, it's right now as the team finds itself on the outskirts of playoff contention. They're only 4.5 games back of the Wild Card, though they'd have to jump several teams to get the spot. Hosting their main rival after a long eight-game road trip seems like all the motivation they'll need and I like St. Louis to take tonight's series opener. 

The Cubs were able to salvage a split w/ the D'backs after dropping the first two games of the series. But both wins were of the one-run variety and they managed all of four runs in the first three games. Though the Cubs have actually underperformed in terms of wins and losses, at least according to run differential, they've been a pretty lucky team in July w/ numerous come from behind wins. Yesterday was another example w/ them scoring three times in the bottom of the ninth for a 7-6 win. They actually overcame what was a five-run deficit at one point. It was their 12th come from behind victory in the last month alone, which seems like a pretty unsustainable blueprint for success, if you ask me. Two of those 12 come from behind victories came at the Cardinals expense in the first series after the All-Star Break, but note St. Louis actually outscored them in that series, due to winning one of the games 18-5. 

St. Louis actually has a winning record this year vs. the Cubs (7-6), including a 4-2 mark here at home. But tonight's starter, Luke Weaver, has had no success against the Cubs in his career nor at home this year. Weaver is 0-3 w/ a 10.89 ERA in five career starts vs. the Cubs and just lost to them in his most recent start (gave up three runs in four innings). He's also 0-4 in eight home starts this season. But he still has a 3.00 ERA and 1.056 WHIP his L3 starts overall and I think he's going to surprise tonight. He's also up against a weak starting pitcher for the Cubs, that being Mike Montgomery, who has a 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP his L3 starts. Montgomery was also unsuccessful in his last start, which came against this very opponent. Yes, the Cubs are the better team overall, but they won't be on this night. 8* St. Louis

8* Toronto (8:10 ET): For a White Sox team that isn't any good to begin with, this is an absolutely brutal spot. After wrapping up a four-game set out in LA yday afternoon (lost 12-8), they had to fly back East (across two time zones) and now host a Toronto team that will be motivated after it was swept by Minnesota. The Blue Jays had off yday. These teams haven't met since early April when the Jays were able to take two of three North of the Border. At the time, Toronto fans were thinking their team might have a shot at doing something here in 2018 (started 12-5). But that has proven not to be the case. Still, they're a lot better than a White Sox team that has been outscored by 137 runs this season, which happens to be the third worst differential in all of baseball. 

On its off-day, Toronto made news by dealing J.A. Happ to the division rival Yankees, in exchange for Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney. Drury is expected to be in the lineup tonight. But truthfully, that has little bearing on this play. I like starter Marcus Stroman and what he was able to do in his most recent outing as he allowed just one run and five hits in seven innings. Granted, that was against Baltimore, but remember that the White Sox aren't much better than the Orioles. It was also the third time in his last five starts that Stroman went at least seven innings and gave up two runs or fewer. He should have little difficulty here in shutting down a Sox lineup that ranks 24th in runs, 22nd in batting average and 26th in OBP.

When you're 30 games below .500 like the White Sox are, there is little use for a quality closer. So, it was not that surprising to see the Sox ship off Joakim Soria to the Brewers. That netted them a pair of prospects, but it also leaves a big void in the backend of the bullpen. It's a bullpen that's probably going to need to be ready as well, given how poorly today's starter Reynaldo Lopez has pitched of late. In his L3 starts, Lopez is 0-3 w/ a 6.75 ERA and 1.672 WHIP. He's allowed 5 ER in B2B starts. The Blue Jays are 8-5 following an off-day and I can't see them losing here. 8* Toronto

10* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): Our 10* Game of the Week play on the Reds last night did NOT work out as they gave up an insane 7 HR's to the Phillies in a 9-4 loss (actually, lucky that final score wasn't even worse as all but one were solo shots). But w/ the revenge angle still in play, I'm going back to the well again tonight. The revenge angle stems from the Reds getting swept out in the City of Brotherly Love back in April. But as discussed yday, they were not the same team back then, which was the "dying days" of the Bryan Price regime. They've basically been a .500 club for interim skipper Jim Riggleman and assuming they do a better job of keeping the ball in the yard tonight, I believe they are in strong position to deliver a win. Despite averaging 6.1 rpg over the last seven days, the Phillies are only batting a collective .220. They also still are a losing proposition on the road. 

I understand how Anthony DeSclafani facing this Phillies lineup could produce some trepidation. DeScalafani has allowed one HR in seven straight starts and eight total in his last four starts. The Phillies have homered in seven straight games and have 15 in just the L4 games. DeSclafani is coming off rough B2B starts, but the Freehold, NJ native (home of Springsteen!) at least had six strikeouts in 4 1/3 innings his last time out, which is an encouraging sign. In addition to hitting a lot of home runs lately, the Phillies have also been striking out a bunch (league-wide trend). They struck out nine times yday, increasing their total to 76 since the All-Star Break. I don't believe those HR totals are sustainable obviously, nor is averaging 6.1 rpg w/ a .220 average. 

The Reds are just 2-5 since the Break w/ all of those games taking place here at home. That's obviously disappointing, but in the last series they did take two of three from the Cardinals. They did battle back from a 4-0 deficit last night, tying things up in the bottom of the fourth inning. This will be the 1st time since 2015 that the Phillies have seen DeSclafani. Meanwhile, it's the second time in 2018 that the Reds will have faced Nick Pivetta, who is the starter tonight for the Phils. While Pivetta did hold Cincy to just two runs on five hits back in April, he's only 5-8 in 20 starts total and has a 5.35 ERA/1.512 WHIP on the road. This is a better price on the Reds compared to yday and really there's no reason for that. 10* Cincinnati

8* Run Line Texas (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rangers +1.5. This is the finale of a four-game set in which the home team has yet to win. Yes, Oakland has been a hot team of late. But they've also had a bit of lady luck riding on their shoulders. Take last night, for example, as they rallied for two runs in the top of the ninth to win 6-5. That was after a 10-inning win Tuesday where they came back from a 10-2 deficit. While they've won five straight, three of those victories have come in extra innings. Given that luck, I've decided that the RL is our best option here. Three of those five straight A's victories have come by exactly one run. I'll say Texas does no worse than a one-run loss here as they look to avoid getting swept (home teams rarely get swept in a four-game series). 

Bartolo Colon will get the baseball for the Rangers tonight as the rotund righty looks to reverse a recent poor stretch. He's 0-3 his L3 starts w/ a 5.30 ERA. But the thing is, he's been no worse than Oakland starter Trevor Cahill, whose ERA in his L3 starts is 5.14. Cahill also has a slightly higher WHIP in his last three turns. Cahill has the much better overall ERA and WHIP, but not on the road where those numbers are 5.92 and 1.315. He's winless in five road starts and has actually won only one decision in 10 starts total this season (1-2 WL Record). Colon has pitched well against the A's, one of his many former teams, this year and throughout his career. He's 10-6 all-time against them w/ a 3.34 ERA (22 starts). That includes two solid showings here in '18 where he's allowed a total of just three runs in 11 innings of work.

Truthfully, the Texas pitching staff has not done a very good job in this series, but maybe that shouldn't be all that surprising when you consider Oakland is the highest scoring road team in all of MLB. But what is surprising is that the A's are only 18-26 vs. the rest of the AL West this season. They are 7-5 vs. the Rangers, but as detailed above, there's been some great fortune along the way. Right now, Oakland is outperforming its run differential, which says they should have closer to 56 wins, rather than the 60 they actually have. They're also pretty lucky to be 18-8 in one-run games. Playing tonight's game the way we are negates that record, however, and I would not be surprised at all to see Colon lead the Rangers to a win here. 8* Run Line Texas (+1.5)

10* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): Several factors, like the motive of revenge and the line move, point to a big Reds win tonight at Great American Ballpark. But above all else, I'm just not sure I'm a believer in the Phillies. Sure, they come in off B2B wins over LA. That is impressive. But it was basically one big inning that did it yday and then Tuesday was a 16-inning affair. The effects of that game are likely still to be felt this weekend in the Queen City whereas the host Reds should be just fine playing a third straight series at home since the All-Star Break. Simply put, the Phillies are not the same team on the road (23-26 record) as they are at home (34-18) anyway. I say that I'm not a believer in part b/c of a run differential that's roughly equivalent w/ the 50-51 Nationals. I like the Reds big tonight in a revenge spot. 

Yes, the Phils did sweep the Reds earlier in the year. But it was very early in the season, during the "dying days" of Bryan Price's tenure, in fact. After starting the year 3-18, the Reds have been better than .500 for interim skipper Jim Riggleman. They're actually 7-2-1 their previous 10 series! Despite not getting a lot of offense, they were able to take two of three from the Cardinals in the last series, including a 7-3 win yday. Their only loss in the series was their own extra inning affair on Tuesday. They hand the baseball to Tyler Mahle tonight and while he's off rough B2B outings, I feel he's likely to bounce back here. The Phillies are near the bottom of the league in terms of runs scored on the road and at a bit of a disadvantage never having faced Mahle, a rookie. Mahle leads all NL rookies in wins, starts and innings pitched this year as well as strikeouts (101). 

Philly will counter w/ a rookie of its own in this spot, one making his big league debut. This will actually be the fourth consecutive game that the Reds are facing a rookie pitcher and for three of the four, it's been their big league debut! Tonight it's Ranger Suarez, who not that long ago was pitching down in Double-A. Yes, the Reds have struggled to hit against this recent rash of rookie pitching they've faced, but I have to wonder if this spot might prove to be "too big" for Suarez. He made only three starts at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. The Phillies have experienced a lot of good fortune in 2018, but not tonight. 10* Cincinnati 

8* Houston (8:40 ET): The Astros' 8-2 win last night might be a tad bit misleading in the sense that it required an extra inning, but note that they also led 2-0 for much of the game before exploding for six runs in the 10th frame. Colorado was able to tie things in the 7th w/ a two-run rally, temporarily scaring me (I had Houston), but it's hard not to be confident in a team that's 31 games above .500 and outscored its opponents by a MLB-best 194 runs. If anything, a win such as last night's was overdue for the 'Stros considering that run differential indicates they've actually UNDERperformed (in terms of wins and losses) this season. Thus, I'll come right back w/ them again as the Rockies AREN'T as good as their WL record and the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field are rather conducive to the Astros having success. 

Houston averages a MLB-best 5.7 rpg on the road. No other team can even touch their +2.6 per game run differential on the road. Thus, it was a little odd to see them held scoreless from the second through the ninth inning last night in the most hitter-friendly park of all-time. But then came the six-run explosion in the 10th and that was all she wrote. Now they were facing perhaps the best pitcher on the Colorado staff, Tyler Anderson. Tonight, they'll be up against Jon Gray. Despite a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts, Gray still has a 5.35 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, making him a good fade against this Astros' offense. It has certainly been an interesting season for Gray, who was the team's Opening Day starter, but was also sent down to Triple-A at one point (due to struggling w/ his mechanics). His last start, which was quite good, was his first back from a two-week stint "down on the farm." But he was recalled mainly out of neccessity (Rockies' rotation is currently short-handed) and I wouldn't be optimistic about him in this spot. 

Houston will go w/ Charlie Morton, who hasn't been all that sharp of late, but still has a 2.96 ERA for the season. He also has 37 strikeouts in his last four starts, which have spanned 23 2/3 innings. He's dropped only two decisions all year and the team has won five of his last seven starts overall. He has experience pitching at Coors Field. Earlier, I mentioned that Colorado has been an overachiever and that's based on the fact they've been outscored this year despite a record that's six games over .500. They actually have a losing record at Coors where they (not shockingly) allow more runs per game than any other team at home in all of baseball (5.8 rpg). As I said in yday's analysis, this is quite the ideal matchup for the reigning WS Champs. 8* Houston

8* Cleveland (1:10 ET): The Indians came out of the All-Star Break swinging for the fences as they scored 27 runs in two games against the Texas Rangers. But they failed to sweep that series, getting shutout on Sunday. They suffered another shutout on Tuesday and then were beaten again by the Pirates last night (9-4), so now it's them looking to avoid the sweep. This team is far too potent to be swept at home from where I sit as they average 5.9 rpg here at Progressive Field. No team in all of baseball scores a higher average at home. Pittsburgh was a team that I thought appeared destined to sink to the bottom of the NL Central at one point, but instead it's been quite the opposite as they enter this game on an inexplicable 11-game win streak. That comes to an end today, however. 

Not only do the Indians typically "bring the offense" here at home, they also have (arguably) their most reliable starter on the bump this afternoon. That would be the enigmatic Trevor Bauer, an All-Star who ranks second in the American League in innings pitched (140 1/3), third in strikeouts (182), fifth in ERA (2.50) and strikeouts per nine innings (11.7) as well as 10th in opponents batting average (.218). Recently, he's been able to maintain those numbers/rankings (2.84 ERA, 12.3 K's per nine innings L3 starts), yet has nothing to show for it as he's received three straight no decisions. Now, last time out, Bauer wasn't that sharp as he gave up four runs (tied for season-high) in his shortest start of the season (4 IP). But the main reason why Bauer's TSR is "only" 12-9 has been lack of run support. That changed in that last start (Indians won 9-8 over Texas) and I'm predicting he'll get the requisite amount of help today as well. 

Though Bauer has faced the Bucs only one time in his career (in 2015), he has fared quite well in Interleague Play, particularly this season. He's 9-5 w/ a 2.66 ERA vs. the NL all-time, including a 2-0 mark w/ a 0.44 ERA in '18. He threw eight shutout innings against the Reds in this ballpark back on 7.10, allowing only three hits and finishing w/ 12 K's. Pittsburgh, who is still only 4-13 this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, will turn to Jameson Taillon today. Like Bauer, Taillon has probably pitched better than his (11-9) TSR indicates. But he hasn't been as good as Bauer, generally speaking, although his last two starts were both great. Taillon does have a 6.75 ERA in IL Play this season though. The last time a Pirates team won this many games in a row was 1996 when they still finished 73-89. I think the current streak will prove to be just as random as I don't rule out a similar finish this year. The last two days aside, Cleveland is the much better team here. 8* Cleveland

10* LA Dodgers (12:35 ET): Talk about a short turnaround. After 16 long innings, these teams finally wrapped things up at 1:14 AM local time w/ the Phillies prevailing 7-4 on a walk-off HR. That was a really tough loss for Dodger Blue, who led 4-1 entering the 7th frame. With heavy bullpen attrition, they were forced to give the baseball to an outfielder (Kike Hernandez) in the 16th last night and he gave up the GW home run. Overall, the teams combined to use 18 different pitchers in the contest. There's going to be a heavy burden on today's starting pitchers and I'll side w/ LA, who is still the better team in my eyes. They won 7-6 on Monday, dealing the Phillies a rare one-run defeat (Philly is 20-9 in such games this year). That record in one-run games has artificially propped up the Phils' overall WL record as has their now 7-3 mark in extra innings. I still lean on the fact the Dodgers have outscored opponents by 89 runs this season while the Phillies are at "just" +23.

Both of this afternoon's starting pitchers have had a lot of success of late. In fact, both enter this game w/ 4-0 TSR's over their last four starts, respectively. That said, Philadelphia's Jake Arrieta has gotten to face Miami and San Diego his L2 outings and was quite lucky not to lose against the latter, his last time out. Arrieta gave up five runs in just 3 1/3 IP, but his offense bailed him out in what ended up being an 11-5 Phillies' win. Back on May 29th, Arrieta did throw seven shutout innings against the Dodgers. However, since then, he's been quity shaky, posting a 5.06 ERA and 1.417 WHIP. Twice in the last seven starts, he has not gotten out of the fourth inning. Given the state of the bullpen after last night, that's a really big deal. Arrieta's strikeout totals have been relatively low all season, which indicates a lack of dominance as well. 

The Dodgers will go w/ Walker Buehler here. He has a 0.994 WHIP in 10 starts this season and has allowed 2 ER or fewer eight times. Last time out, he did surrender a pair of solo home runs, but the Dodgers still were able to beat the Angels, 3-2. Last night's loss was just the Dodgers' sixth here in the month of July. They have not dropped B2B games since the end of June and are 30-15 overall since the start of last month. I do believe the respective YTD run differentials "mean something" and that something is that LA is the significantly better team here. They take today's rubber match. 10* LA Dodgers 

8* LA Angels (10:07 ET): The Angels dropped the series opener to the White Sox last night, 5-3, as they've reached a bit of a "crossroad." They're now a game below .500 and 10.5 gms back of the second Wild Card spot in the American League. It will obviously require a pretty substantial run for them to make the playoffs. That all being said, I think that they're poised for an easy win Tuesday night. Fading the White Sox off a win is always a good idea (they're 11-23 in the role this season) as is playing against them on the road (16-35). The Southsiders' die was cast long ago for 2018 and they're simply not a good team. The last time they beat the same oponent in consecutive days was late June. Since starting the year 2-0 (at Kansas City's expense), they've done it only five times all season! 

The Angels had the lead early last night, but starter Jaime Barria simply could not hold it. I expect a stronger effort tonight from Felix Pena, who has looked quite good in his five starts thus far. Pena has yet to lose a decision or allow more than three earned runs. Here, he faces an offense that generally is not very good (4.0 rpg). Granted, his ERA is much lower on the road, but w/ the White Sox visiting that's not that big of an issue. Priced in the +125 to +175 range on the road, the Sox are 4-12 this season. They're 22-55 the L3 seasons. Meanwhile, the Angels have generally handled their business as a larger home favorite (-175 or higher), going 7-1. Last night aside, it's the top teams in the American League that have given them trouble, not the bottom-feeders.

Chicago also gives up 5.8 rpg as the road team. Only Miami is worse in that regard. Tuesday's starter Carlos Rodon is off his strongest effort of the season as he threw 7 1/3 scoreless innings against St. Louis all the way back on 7.11. But I wouldn't be too confident in the follow-up as plenty of time has elapsed since then. It was also just the second time in seven starts that the White Sox won w/ Rodon on the mound. Betting against a bad team on the road, off a win, just seems pretty logical to me. 8* LA Angels

10* Houston (8:40 ET): To me, there's no question that the Astros are the best team in baseball right now. That distinction is confirmed by a MLB-best +188 run differential and the reality of the matter is they've played even BETTER than their 66-36 record indicates. One of the most impressive components of the 'Stros season thus far has been their play away from home where they have a 34-15 WL record. They average a MLB-best 5.7 rpg in those games, so just imagine what they'll be capable of here, playing in the most hitter-friendly park in the league. Even w/o a DH (NL rules), I expect plenty of runs on the board tonight and w/ Gerritt Cole pitching, this looks like an extremely low price on the defending WS Champs. 

Cole enters this game w/ a 16-4 team start record, 2.52 ERA and 0.982 WHIP. He's been one of the key cogs in a pitching staff that is clearly MLB's best. Not only do the Astros score more than any other team on the road, they also give up the fewest (3.1). The result is a per game run differential of +2.6, which is nothing short of jaw-dropping. Cole has yet to allow more than four runs in any of his 20 starts this year, which could be tested here, but also is likely to be offset by his own offense's production. In his last start before the All-Star Break, Cole held the Tigers to one run and three hits in an easy 9-1 win. Having had Monday off, Houston has had plenty of time to "stew over" a 14-5 loss to the Angels on Sunday (which denied them a sweep). That was the most runs they gave up to any opponent all season. The only other time they allowed 10+ runs, they came back and won the following game. 

Like Houston, Colorado failed to finish off a three-game sweep on Sunday. In the Rockies' case, a 6-1 loss to the D'backs ended a season-best seven-game run. The team has certainly played well of late, but my view is they're still quite overrated, at least in terms of WL record. Despite being 53-46, they've actually been outscored this season. No team gives up a higher number of runs per game at home, so that works against them. They'll look to counter Cole w/ Tyler Anderson, who has definitely pitched well of late, but this may very well end up being his toughest assignment of the season. Even w/ the recent win streak, the Rockies are still only .500 at home for the season, including 3-7 when Anderson toes the rubber. 10* Houston

6* NY Yankees (7:10 ET): It was a somewhat improbable fifth straight loss to the Rays for the Yankees last night as they fell as huge favorites on the ML (closed as high as -290 at some shops!) w/ Luis Severino on the mound. (Severino entered the game w/ an 18-2 TSR). This losing streak to the Rays actually dates back to last month and includes a sweep that took place right here at Tropicana Field. The home team has now won all but one of the 10 times these AL East teams have met this season. But that trend should be broken tonight as I'll call for the Yanks to gain a measure of revenge. Tampa Bay has again been rather "coy" w/ its starting pitching situation, but we "know" what we're gonna get from Masahiro Tanaka and it should be enough for the victory. 

Seven pitchers worked for the Rays in last night's 7-6 win. That puts quite the onus on tonight's starter, rookie Yonny Chirinos, who has been out of the rotation since April. Some of that was injury (to his forearm), but he also wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire on rehab assignment down in Triple-A Durham. In eight starts there, he posted a 5.28 ERA, so there was no real rush to get him back to the big leagues. Blake Snell was originally set to start this game for the Rays, so that's a big break for the Yankees, who should have tied last night's game in the top of the ninth were it not for a lack of hustle from Gary Sanchez on the final out. Chirinos' last three starts at the big league level hardly went well as he posted an 8.02 ERA and 1.945 WHIP.

The Yankees are 23-10 off a loss this season. That alone provides ammunition to call for a bounce back, but w/ Tanaka on the hill, the feeling becomes even stronger. Unbeaten in 10 road starts this season (5-0) and in his last 11 starts overall, Tanaka has a far better WHIP than ERA, which is notable. Generally speaking, he does not allow many baserunners. Last time out, he held Cleveland to two runs in 6 1/3 innings. He was 6-0 in his career vs. TB prior to stumbling against them LY. This will be the 1st time facing them in '18, which is a bit of a surprise given how often the teams have met. The bottom line is that I just can't see the Yankees losing as big favorites B2B days. 6* NY Yankees 

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Pirates won their 10th in a row last night, albeit in "abbreviated fashion" as the game was called after six innings (rain). But make no mistake about it, they really "took it to" Cleveland, winning 7-0 as huge (+245 ML underdogs). Just as surprising as them beating up on Corey Kluber (scored four runs against him) was the fact the Indians were shut out. This is a team that averages 5.9 rpg here at Progressive Field. No team scores more runs per game in their home park. I expect the Tribe to bounce back tonight though, behind Shane Bieber, as hopefully Mother Nature will not be as big a factor. 

I've got to say that this 10-game win streak has certainly come out of "nowhere" for Pittsburgh. Prior to it beginning, the team appeared to be sinking in the early part of July. They're now three games above .500, but I don't see this as a legit playoff contender as there's no ace in the rotation or even an All-Star in the everyday lineup. The bullpen, while 44-1 when leading after seven innings, doesn't exactly have a spectacular ERA or WHIP either. They are a very random 11-2 in Interleague Play following yday's win, but I wouldn't read too much into that. After all, the AL Central (outside of Cleveland) is very weak and that's who they've been beating up to this point. The other four teams in the division are all sub-.500 teams. I put more stock in the Pirates' 3-13 record as ML road dogs of +125 to +175 than I do the IL record. 

Last night's starting pitching matchup looked to be lopsided in favor of the Indians, but instead produced a shocking result. I don't see lightning striking twice however as the Bucs' Joe Musgrove was fortunate to escape w/ a no-decision his last time out after giving up five runs. It was the third time in the last five starts he allowed that many runners to score. For Cleveland, Bieber has been admittedly a little shaky himself over the L3 starts, but still has a 6-1 TSR. The Indians' offense has been quite schizophrenic recently as they scored 19 runs on Saturday, but have since been shutout each of the last two days. But remember what I wrote earlier about them leading all of MLB in runs per game at home. I look for the offense to bounce back big-time tonight and Bieber to take care of the rest. The Indians' one real albatross in the first half was the bullpen, but that group was solidified w/ a big trade during the Break. 8* Cleveland

10* Texas (8:05 ET): Oakland was a 10* winner for me Saturday and Sunday, but truthfully they were a little fortunate to win both those games (against the Giants). Good fortune has typically gone this team's way of late as they are now 17-8 in one-run games, which partly explains them getting to 14 games over .500 w/ a fairly mediocre +22 run differential. Getting back to the weekend, they beat the Giants in the final at-bat each of the last two days (in extra innings, no less). Now, they did have early leads in both games, only to have to then rally. I just see their run of good luck ending tonight in the Arlington heat against Cole Hamels. The A's have lost their last three games at Globe Life Park (dating back to April), including a pair here last month. 

"We're two games into the (second half) and it feels like we've played 20 in a row," Oakland manager Bob Melvin said prior to Sunday's game and that was BEFORE they needed 10 innings to dispose of the Giants. Somebody (by rule!) is going to get that second Wild Card in the American League and while I don't know who it'll end up being, I'm pretty sure they'll end up as a sacrificial lamb to either the Red Sox or Yankees. The A's have to be feeling like it's "their year" as they've now gone 23-7 the L30 games. They also just added Jeruys Familia (at a relatively low cost) to a bullpen that is already 39-0 when leading after seven innings (best such record in all of MLB). But the last two games had to have taken a lot out of them and I wouldn't be so confident in starter Brett Anderson, who somehow has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts in spite of a 1.608 WHIP. For the season, Anderson has a 6.09 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in six starts. 

Hamels may soon be leaving Texas for a contending team, meaning there's a good shot this could be his last start in front of the Rangers' fans. It's not been a typical Hamels season in 2018, but I feel he's still more than capable of putting together a strong second half. He's faced Oakland twice this year, splitting the pair while posting a 2.38 ERA and 16-5 KW ratio. The Rangers shut Cleveland out yday, 5-0, for their 1st win since the Break. Oakland is surprisingly just 15-26 vs. the rest of the AL West and I feel this spot greatly favors the home team. 10* Texas

Play still valid despite pitching change. See below.

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): Truthfully, neither of these teams is any good. However, last night's rainout is our gain as it puts the Mets in perhaps the most favorable spot they'll be in the rest of the way. Because of Sunday's game being postponed, Jacob deGrom's start has been bumped back a day to face a far weaker opponent than had he been forced to go up against the Yankees last night. The Mets ending up w/ the day off is a huge advantage facing a Padres team that just had to play two in Philadelphia yday (split the pair). There has been a pitching change here for the Padres, but it's immaterial as the now starting Joey Lucchesi is no better than the originally scheduled Eric Lauer. 

The Mets are just 29-55 since opening the season 11-1 for first year manager Mickey Callaway. They've sunk to the bottom of the NL East, but it should be pointed out their run differential is significantly "better" than that of the Marlins, so I expect them to move up a spot in the division before all is said and done. It's mostly when deGrom starts that the Mets become "backable" as he has a 1.68 ERA and 0.973 WHIP. Despite those numbers ranking 1st and 2nd respectively in the entire NL, the Mets somehow have managed to go just 8-11 in his 19 starts this year. Incredibly, there have been seven different occasions this year when deGrom has allowed 1 or 0 ER over 7+ innings and NOT gotten the win. But again, facing the Padres instead of the Yankees is the kind of a lucky break any starter would beg for. deGrom is 3-1 w/ a 1.53 ERA in five career starts vs. SD.

While the Mets are somewhat of a dumpster fire, the Padres are even worse as they own the Senior Circuit's worst overall record right now. They were shutout in the second game yday, getting held to just two hits, as their offense continues to be one of the weakest in the game today. They rank 27th or lower in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging. They get no relief from the starting pitching here either as Lauer enters this game w/ a 2-6 TSR and 1.785 WHIP on the road this season. The team has dropped 13 of 17 here in June and the Game 1 victory yday snapped a six-game slide. With a 1.59 ERA and 0.882 WHIP at home this season, don't we think that deGrom is deserving of far better than a 4-6 TSR here? I do! 8* NY Mets

8* LA Dodgers (7:05 ET): Though they get to stay at home (where they're 32-17 this season), this is a tough situation for the Phillies as they just played a doubleheader yday (split w/ SD). In come the Dodgers, who are red hot and represent a major step up in class. Dodger Blue just won for the sixth time in eight games Sunday, beating up on the Brewers (in Milwaukee) by a score of 11-2. They're now 39-18 overall going back to May 17th and have started to seize control of the NL West. Though technically a battle of division leaders (Phillies up on the Braves by one game in the East), LA has proven itself to be the far more potent team in my eyes as they have a run differential of +91, which is second best on the entire Senior Circuit, trailing only the Cubs. Meanwhile, despite having a near identical record (to LA), Philly's run differential is just +21 as they've been artifically "propped up" by a 20-8 record in close games. The 49-49 Nationals actually have a better YTD run diff! 

Few would have expected Zach Eflin to be a major player in the Phillies' rotation this season, but here we are in July and that's definitely been the case. He enters Monday w/ a 7-2 record, 3.15 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in 12 starts (8-4 TSR). He's allowed 2 ER or fewer in nine of those starts. But he missed his last scheduled start before the Break (due to a blister) and it will be interesting to see how he performs here. The last time Eflin did pitch was 7.9 vs. the Mets and he allowed three runs in five innings, snapping a six-game win streak. What we do know is that he did NOT perform well against this Dodgers' lineup back on 5.30 as he gave up five runs and seven hits in just four innings of work. That was obviously before the Dodgers bolstered their lineup w/ Manny Machado. Eflin has surrendered a total of SEVEN home runs to the Dodgers in 14 innings against them, all-time. 

As I just alluded to, this Dodgers' lineup is now far more potent than it was two months ago. That's thanks to the addition of Machado, whose presence is being felt up and down the batting order. He's 5 for 13 since coming over from Baltimore while Matt Kemp is 6 of 13, including a pair of HR's in yday's rout of the Brew Crew. The Dodgers, who have homered seven times in the last six games, will turn to Ross Stripling (an All-Star) on the mound today and he beat Elfin back on 5.30 thanks to allowing just one run on four hits in 7 IP. Stripling has now allowed 2 ER or fewer in 11 of his last 13 outings and just threw six scoreless innings in his last start before the Break. As reflected in the line, the Dodgers are the superior side here. 8* LA Dodgers 

10* Oakland (4:05 ET): Following a dramatic win last night (in 11 innings), I feel the A's are poised to beat the Giants again on Sunday. The A's were my *10* Game of the Week last night as they won for a 22nd time in the last 28 games. This club looks to be a legit contender for the 2nd AL Wild Card spot (we KNEW Seattle would come back to the pack) and the front office certainly appeared to "double down" on 2018 by going out and acquiring closer Jeurys Familia from the Mets yesterday (didn't even have to give up all that much). Meanwhile, the Bay Area rival Giants continue to look a tad bit overrated as they've been outscored this season (-23 run differential) despite owning a winning record. The last series between these teams (earlier in the month) saw the Giants take the opener, only for the A's to come back and win the next two. Same thing this time around.

Sunday starter Sean Manaea has shown himself to be a very key cog in this A's rotation. He has a 0.995 WHIP in 20 starts this year, so he probably "deserves" better than a 12-8 TSR. (At home, that WHIP is even better). Manaea's last start also came against these Giants and he held them to just two runs on five hits in six innings. The A's won that game pretty easily, 6-2, and I see little reason why history wouldn't repeat itself here. Manaea has now allowed three runs or fewer in eight consecutive starts. Though the Giants do (theoretically) benefit from having a DH in the lineup here, they're only 20-30 on the road this season and a pretty weak hitting lineup overall (3.5 rpg on the road). 

San Francisco sends Johnny Cueto to the mound this afternoon and while has some nice numbers, it's still a relatively limited sample size due to time spent on the disabled list. Since coming off the DL, he hasn't really been the same either. He's allowed eight runs and 16 hits in 10 innings and given up four home runs. Remember that American League rules for this game work both ways as Cueto must also deal w/ a lineup that has the DH. Oakland has done quite well for itself in Interleague Play this season, going 10-4 overall. They're also 26-14 in day games. Losing an 11-inning game can be really tough on a team, especially when there's a quick turnaround such as this. Thus, I look for the A's to beat up on an emotionally spent Giants team today. 10* Oakland

8* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): These long-time rivals have already played four games this weekend, including a doubleheader yday. They were not only even yesterday (Cubs won Game 1), but have split the four games. That means somebody will win the series today and my money is on the Cubs, who have surged into 1st place in the NL Central and are clearly the division's best team. St. Louis fired manager Mike Matheny shortly before the All-Star Break in what seems like a desperate attempt to get things going. The bottom line is that the Cards are little more than an average ballclub. The Cubs, on the other hand, have the NL's best run differential as they are the first team in the Senior Circuit to reach 500 runs scored this year. They'll take the series. 

Both Sunday starters come in sporting identical 3-0 team start records over their last three starts respectively. For the Cubs, it's Jose Quintana getting the baseball and he has a 2.81 ERA in six career starts vs. St. Louis. Not only that, he threw six scoreless innings of three-hit ball his last time out. That ended up being a 2-0 win at San Francisco and it was the seventh time in his last eight starts that he gave up three earned runs or less. The team has gone 12-6 in his 18 starts this year, not to mention they're 25-15 off a loss. The Cubs have been a strong home team as well, going 31-18 at Wrigley. I think Quintana is poised to do just fine here against a St. Louis offense that was held to two hits in yesterday's opener and just five runs total before "busting loose" in the ninth inning of the nightcap. 

The Cards' Miles Mikolas has very similar numbers to Quintana and did come out on the winning end of a previous battle, all the way back on May 4th. That was in St. Louis though when he tossed seven scoreless innings (did allow 7 hits). Neither pitcher is posting a lot of strikeouts lately, so - for me - what this comes down to is a superior offense from the home team. St. Louis is outside the top 10 in all key categories while the Cubs are no lower than seventh in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging. In fact, they are tops in all of MLB in OBP (.348) as well as 2nd in BA (.267). They're the better team and this is a great price on them at home. 8* Chi Cubs

8* Minnesota (2:10 ET): The Royals are on the verge of doing something almost unprecedented for their very forgettable 2018 season. That would be win three consecutive games. They've done it only one other time all season, that coming back in late May when they took two from the Cardinals and then beat the Rangers. Never have they swept a series. They have a chance to do just that on Sunday, hosting Minnesota, as they've won by scores of 6-5 and 4-2 the L2 days. But I'll now step in and bet against the sweep from happening as there's just no sugarcoating how bad this team truly is. At 29-68 overall, they've been outscored by a mind-blowing 190 runs. They're only 13-35 at home! Minnesota has its own "warts," but should have enough pride to want to avoid what would be a very embarrassing sweep. 

The Twins have actually outhit the Royals in both games so far in the series, but have still trailed most of the way. Today, I expect them to get off to a fast start against former Rule 5 pick Brad Keller, who - like his team - has enjoyed little to no success in '18. He's 1-3 in eight starts (2-6 TSR), including 0-2 his L3 (0-3 TSR) w/ a 5.87 ERA and 1.825 WHIP. Curiously, he has yet to allow a single home run. Yet that hasn't stopped him from giving up plenty of runs anyway. Last time out, he lasted only 2 2/3 innings while giving up five runs to the White Sox. That came on the heels of allowing four runs in 4 2/3 innings to Boston the start before that. His KW ratio in those two starts is a horrible 3-9. Something else to consider is that not only have the Royals not swept a series all year, this is the first time they've won B2B games since the end of May (also against the Twins)! 

Minnesota will go w/ Jake Odorizzi, hardly an inspiring starter himself, but ever if there was a time to get off the proverbial schnide, it would be here. Before allowing six runs (five earned) in his most recent start, Odorizzi actually had been pitching relatively well, allowing just two runs total his previous three starts (which spanned 17 IP). He has not faced KC yet this year. But he knows the team well having previously pitched for the Royals. One positive is that Odorizzi does have more strikeouts than innings pitched. The Royals are just 13-26 in day games this season and I just can't see the Twins being swept here. 8* Minnesota

10* Oakland (9:05 ET): Madison Bumgarner & the Giants might be tempting at an underdog price, but I'll side w/ Trevor Cahill and the Athletics here in this battle for Bay supremacy. The Giants did win last night, 5-1, but you may recall they also took the series opener from the A's last week as well, only to drop the next two games. It was Bumgarner that started that prior win (I remember b/c I had him!), but he was also up against a far less capable pitcher. Taken as a whole, San Francisco should be viewed as an overachiever given their winning record (51-48) in spite of a -22 run differential. Oakland could be viewed through a somewhat similar prism as their 55 wins and +20 run differential don't exactly "add up," however, the way I see it is someone HAS to challenge Seattle for that second Wild Card spot in the AL and it might as well be these guys! 

Something curious about Oakland is that their number of runs per game scored go way down here at home. Only division mate Houston averages a higher number of runs per game on the road and as a result the A's are 31-21 in those games. They're only 24-22 here at the O.co Coliseum, but one player in particular that doesn't mind toeing the rubber here happens to be tonight's starter, Cahill. He has a 0.64 ERA and 0.786 WHIP in four home starts this season, numbers that are obviously quite ridiculous. His last time starting here, he threw eight shutout innings (w/ six strikeouts and zero walks) in a very hard-luck (1-0) decision to to the Rays. Still, that was the third home start Cahill didn't allow a single run. He's allowed just two (both to Seattle on 5.22) total in 28 IP. Something else I like about the A's here is their 9-4 record in Interleague Play.

While they (theoretically) do benefit from the addition of a DH to the lineup this weekend, the Giants still average just 3.5 rpg on the road and shouldn't give Cahill much trouble here, IMO. One would have to go all the way back to the 1st of the month to find the last instance of them scoring 5+ runs in B2B games against the same opponent. They're just 20-29 in road games, including 0-3 in those started by Bumgarner and that's not a case of "hard luck" at all as MadBum has a 4.67 ERA/1.50 WHIP in those three outings. Even after the quality effort last week, his career ERA against the A's is still only 4.62 (six starts). Unlike Tampa Bay (who I lost w/ last night), Oakland seems serious about making a postseason run, so I'll go w/ them tonight in a bounce back spot where they're very likely to get a quality start. 10* Oakland

8* Houston (7:15 ET): Justin Verlander has a legit claim to being the best pitcher in all of baseball this year and the Astros (in my view) are clearly the best team. So, it's downright shocking that the reigning World Series champs are only 12-9 in Verlander starts this season. Considering he's third in the American League in ERA (2.29), 1st in WHIP (0.84), 2nd in IP (137 2/3) and 4th in strikeouts (172), that team start record makes little sense to me and it seems quite logical that there will be a lot more wins moving forward. The Angels are an opponent that Verlander has absolutely feasted on since becoming as Astro as he's a perfect 4-0 against them in the L12 months, having allowed just 2 ER and 11 hits in 31 IP. I believe he'll easily lead his team to victory Saturday night.

Houston cruised to victory last night in the season opener, 3-1, sending the Angels to an even .500 for the year (49-49). Not since opening the season w/ a loss have the Halos been below the proverbial "Mendoza line." But the Astros aren't an opponent that will give them any breaks. The champs are an incredible 33-14 on the road w/ 5.7 rpg scored. They are easily MLB's best road team this year and are also 22-10 in day games (remember this is a West Coast game, so it will be starting in the afternoon). Angels' hitters had virtually no answer for Dallas Keuchel last night as they didn't get their first hit of the game until the seventh innings and finished w/ only two total. Given some of the season-long struggles at the plate (average only 4.0 rpg at home), it's difficult to imagine them "figuring things out" when facing a pitcher the caliber of Verlander. 

Now I should point out that Verlander is actually winless over his L6 starts, a stretch which dates back to 6.14. But that only serves to make me want to endorse him MORE given the numbers discussed above. Plus, there's the history of dominating this particular opponent. Despite giving up 4 HR's in his last start, Verlander did have 12 K's in his 6 IP. Further aiding his cause here is the fact he's up against the struggling Nick Tropeano, who has a 7.54 ERA and 1.675 WHIP his L3 starts. Yet, his team has actually won twice during that time! But win is something Tropeano has yet to do at home this season (in 5 starts) as he's struggled moreso here than on the road. The Angels are simply not good when stepping up in class (14-27 vs. .500 or better teams TY) and just 7-20 the L27 times they've been priced as a home dog of +125 to +175 on the ML. 8* Houston

8* Cleveland (8:05 ET): The Indians made headlines on the final day of the All-Star Break, completing a blockbuster deal that looks to totally revamp their beleagured bullpen. Considering their 'pen had the worst ERA in all of MLB in the 1st half, it was a necessary move to bring in Brad Hand, no matter the price. Granted, it will be a breeze earning another AL Central pennant, but there's a lot of ground to make up to compete w/ the likes of the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros. The Tribe's first opponent after the break, Texas, is one that they should dominate regardless of the bullpen situation. In fact, they may not even need to call upon new arms to finish the Rangers off on Friday. Not considering the way starter Trevor Bauer (an All-Star) has pitched this season. I look for Cleveland to roll here. 

I played Bauer in his most recent start, which ended up being a 5-2 win over the Yankees. Taken from that analysis, "Despite his 10-9 TSR overall, he's pitched quite well all season, owning a 2.30 ERA and 1.075 WHIP. Over the L3 starts, the enigmatic Bauer has a 1.61 ERA and 0.985 WHIP and last time out he was truly dominant w/ 12 strikeouts in eight shutout innings vs. the Reds. It was the sixth time in his last nine starts overall that Bauer finished w/ 11 or more K's. He has a 1.58 ERA and 0.935 his L7 starts w/ a 71-13 KW ratio in 51 1/3 IP. He has not lost since June 13th, holding opponents to a .192 batting average since while striking out 12.1 hitters per nine innings. He's tied for second in the AL in ERA (w/ Boston's Chris Sale) and also third in both strikeouts and innings pitched. It's pretty easy to understand why this guy is an All-Star, no?" 

True to form, Bauer shut down the Yankee bats on Sunday, limiting them to two runs in seven innings. It should be a lot easier against the Rangers, especially starting opposite Martin Perez, who has some truly unsightly numbers this season (7.67 ERA, 2.046 WHIP). He has a 10.00 ERA in two home starts. Texas typically gives up a lot of runs (5.7 per game at home), so scoring should not be a problem for Cleveland here and Bauer takes care of the rest. Perez has pitched only one time since April, that being last Saturday. While that last start went well, it was against sorry Baltimore and the Rangers still lost (1-0!). I wouldn't count on Perez pitching that well again here. 8* Cleveland

8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): About two months ago was a critical turning point in the Rays' season. Manager Kevin Cash, faced with an injury-riddled rotation and middling record, decided to roll the dice and start employing "openers" (as he calls them), meaning a reliever to start the game. But, generally asked to go no longer than two innings, these "openers" are no traditional starters. As "wacky" as the experiment seemed at the time, it has paid shocking dividends. Tampa Bay entered the All-Star Break w/ the lowest team ERA in all of MLB since the change was made. They also have gotten themselves into Wild Card contention and I see no reason (other than the front office trading away key talent) why this club can't make it three playoff teams out of the AL East. The Rays couldn't have asked for a much easier opponent to start the second half and should roll Friday. 

Of course, the Rays have some quality "traditional" starters as well. One is Nathan Eovaldi, though you wouldn't know that by simply looking at his team start record. Eovaldi has a 3-6 TSR despite a 0.980 WHIP. While he is coming off his worst start of the season (allowed eight runs in 2 2/3 IP vs. Minnesota on 7.13), I'm confident in him bouncing back given the bulk of the resume. His previous three starts had seen him allow just two runs (on 10 hits) in 19 IP. It also helps to be pitching at home where the Rays are 26-17 and outscoring the opposition by a full run per game. So far, Eovaldi has gotten to pitch at home just twice and his last time here saw him hold another NL East foe (Washington) scoreless over six innings of one hit ball. The Marlins present an ideal matchup for Eovaldi considering their lousy offensive numbers (26th in runs, 28th in slugging). They are his former team, so expect an inspired start. 

The Marlins did surprisingly take two of three from the Rays last month, but that was in Miami. You can look to find these Fish "swimming" at the bottom of the National League the rest of the way as they've been outscored by a Senior Circuit worst 115 runs. Honestly, them having even 41 wins at this point of the season should be considered fortunate. They've been outscored by nearly two full runs per game on the road this season and no team allows more runs per game away from home (and here they'll have to deal w/ a DH). Starting here is Dan Straily, who has pitched well of late, but still owns a 4.29 ERA & 1.346 WHIP for the season. The team has won just two of his previous nine outings. It was a win when they faced Eovaldi last month, but in extra innings, as Eovaldi held them to just two runs. Tampa is simply the much better team here, especially at home. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Over Mets/Yankees (7:05 ET): In the last installment of the "Subway Series," the Yankees essentially exerted their dominance in taking two of three from the Mets and did so in relatively low-scoring fashion. Such is life in a National League park. None of the three games at Citi Field saw more than seven total runs scored and the Under cashed every time. (The Yankees' lone loss in the series actually saw them get shutout). While I pretty much expect the team wearing pinstripes to roll again this weekend, I also believe we'll see a lot more scoring this time around. We're at Yankee Stadium, which not only means the use of the DH, but also a Yankees' offense that averages 5.6 rpg at home. Even the Mets' anemic offense should do SOMETHING tonight! Take the Over. 

At first glance, the return of Noah Syndergaard to the Mets' rotation brings out reason to rejoice as the team got the win in his first start back, beating Washington 4-2. But a closer inspection of the box score reveals Syndergaard was a bit lucky to give up just one run as he also allowed seven hits in 5 IP. His KW ratio (3-2) wasn't good either. This will be as challenging a start as he faces all season and while he brings in a 2.97 ERA, note the rather pedestrian WHIP of 1.22. His L3 starts have all gone Under, as have six of the last seven, which has a lot to do w/ a bad Mets' offense as much as anything. Nevertheless, I expect Syndergaard to give up far more runs than we're accustomed to seeing him allow here. 

The Mets started 11-1, but are just 28-54 since. The Yankees' season has been quite the opposite as they've gone 53-24 since a 9-9 start and lost only three of their previous 26 series. They're playing better than .650 ball at the moment, but unfortunately for them, so too is rival Boston (.694!). Certainly, we can expect the Yanks to make the postseason, but don't be suprised if tonight's starter (Domingo German) isn't part of the rotation when they get there. German has a 5.97 ERA after allowing 6 ER in his last start before the Break, the fourth time this season he's given up that many (in just 12 starts). He's made it past the sixth inning just once in his last seven starts. With the Yankees doing most of the heavy lifting and German likely to allow some runs as well, expect a slugfest Friday night. 10* Over Mets/Yankees

8* Colorado (3:10 ET): I'm no huge fan of the Rockies, but I'm even more skeptical of a Mariners team that has somehow managed to go 58-38 in the first half despite not actually outscoring their opponents! That "somehow" is a totally unsustainable 26-11 record in one-run games (plus, let's throw in the fact they are also 8-0 in extra innings!). Seattle is lucky in that they'll head into the ASB w/ a pretty significant lead for the second Wild Card spot in the American League. But I expect this team to be a BIG-time regressor in the second half and, in fact, we've already started to see some of that as they've dropped six of their last eight games overall. That includes the first two of this three-game set at Coors Field where the Rockies have suddenly turned it around, winning 6 of 7.

Overall, Colorado has won five straight series, all against teams w/ .500 or better records. They're still fighting for relevancy in the NL West where they currently in third place behind the Dodgers & D'backs. Truthfully, I do not believe this to be a playoff team (they were LY) as they too (like Seattle) have a negative run differential for the year. But there's no denying they are a hot team right now (won 9 of 11) and they also will send a hot starter to the mound Sunday in the form of Tyler Anderson, who has allowed all of one run in his L3 starts (22 IP). Anderson has a 0.41 ERA and 0.727 WHIP during that time as he's allowed a ridiculously low nine hits. The last two starts have occurred here at home and remember he'll be facing a "weakened" Seattle lineup here, one that's w/o the usual DH spot in the order (National League park).

After scoring seven times in Friday's opener (but they still lost), the M's were held to just one run last night. That won't cut it regardless of the circumstance, but given the way Sunday starter Mike Leake has pitched of late, they could be in some real trouble here. Leake, whose 13-6 TSR is somewhat misleading, has a 6.00 ERA and 1.933 WHIP his L3 outings. He gave up seven runs on 11 hits - in just four innings - his last time out and had only one strikeout. It was his second straight start going only four innings (both against the Angels). I mentioned the likely regression earlier, but Seattle is now assured of dropping three straight series for the 1st time all season. They are just 1-4 vs. Colorado this year and I believe this overachieving ballclub continues to come back "down to Earth" on this final day before the Break. 8* Colorado

8* Washington (1:10 ET): Earlier this month, the Nationals took the first three games of a four-game set from the lowly Marlins and appeared poised to make a run to the top of the NL East. However, they lost the finale of that series and have now dropped five of seven entering the final day before the All-Star Break. They will go into the Break third in the NL East, but despite facing a 6.5-game gap, the Nats really aren't playing that much worse than the top two teams in the division. Well, maybe compared to Atlanta. But they actually have a slightly better run differential than 1st place Philadelphia! They're certainly better than today's opponent, the Mets, although they've lost to them each of the last two days. But I see big win here going into the Break for the team from the Nation's Capital. 

The Mets started 11-1 for 1st year skipper Mickey Callaway. Since then, the bottom has dropped out. They've gone 28-53 the L81 games and haven't won a series since a sweep of Arizona back in mid-May. That's what they're going for today, plus a third straight win at home, something they also haven't done in nearly two months! Yesterday saw starter Zach Wheeler pitch into the eighth inning for the first time in four seasons and win for the first time since April 29th. But I wouldn't count on getting the same from rookie Corey Oswalt today. In three starts so far, Oswalt has a 7.81 ERA and 1.421 WHIP. He is actually coming off his 1st quality start as he went six innings and allowed just one hit against Philadelphia on Monday. But he also had three walks and that led to him allowing three runs despite just the one hit. 

Jeremy Hellickson hasn't exactly been durable for the Nats, but he did toss five scoreless innings of two-hit ball his last time out. Save for one terrible showing vs. Miami earlier this month, Hellickson has allowed 3 ER or fewer in every other start this season. Now, he's made it through six innings just once, but at least he's taking care of the early innings. It's not like the Mets are an offensive juggernaut, in fact, it's quite the opposite as they rank 25th or lower in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging. The Nats actually have a losing record TY vs. the Mets (just 3-6!), but I can't see that continuing as I believe this team is due for bigger & better things in the second half. 8* Washington

8* Cleveland (1:10 ET): For whatever reason, the Indians just can't seem to beat the Yankees. Well, technically, they did on Friday (and I had 'em), but after yday it's eight losses in the last nine head to head meetings, a streak which dates back to last year's infamous LDS (Indians blew 2-0 series lead). However, I feel that they'll beat the team wearing pinstripes today and head into the ASB w/ some positive "momentum" (hate that word!). The Tribe are too good of a home team to pass up at this price (they lead all of MLB in scoring at home) and starter Trevor Bauer has been relatively lights out of late, despite a 1-2 TSR his L3 starts. These teams are a lot more even than the head to head results this year suggest. Look for the Indians to earn themselves a series split on Sunday. 

Over those L3 starts, the enigmatic Bauer has a 1.61 ERA and 0.985 WHIP. Despite his 10-9 TSR overall, he's pitched quite well all season, owning a 2.30 ERA and 1.075 WHIP. The team has been a lot more successful when he pitches here at home (6-3 in his 9 starts here) and last time out he was truly dominant w/ 12 strikeouts in eight shutout innings vs. the Reds. It was the sixth time in his last nine starts overall that Bauer finished w/ 11 or more K's. He has a 1.58 ERA and 0.935 his L7 starts w/ a 71-13 KW ratio in 51 1/3 IP. He has not lost since June 13th, holding opponents to a .192 batting average since while striking out 12.1 hitters per nine innings. He's tied for second in the AL in ERA (w/ Boston's Chris Sale) and also third in both strikeouts and innings pitched. It's pretty easy to understand why this guy is an All-Star, no?

Bauer will be opposed here by Masahiro Tanaka, who has gone three months w/o taking a loss, although his ERA is 4.12 during that time. Despite being unbeaten in nine road starts (5-0), his ERA in those games is 4.91. Now, he does have a much better WHIP than ERA, but I still view him as the inferior starting pitcher in this particular matchup. There's no denying the Yankees have the better bullpen compared to Cleveland, but the latter is too good a home team to keep getting held down. They've outscored visitors by 1.4 rpg here at Progressive Field for the season and I believe will get to Tanaka early in thos one. Meanwhile, I look for Bauer to shut the Yankees' bats down. 8* Cleveland

10* France (11:00 AM ET): Let's give Croatia a ton of credit. They have had to win three consecutive matches in extra time (two via penalty kicks) just to get to their first Cup final since becoming an independent nation. The last one, where I offered my endorsement, saw them come from behind to upset England. This team has not tasted defeat here in Russia and enters Sunday have been beaten only one time (2-0 by Brazil in an Int'l Friendly) since March. But here's where reality sets in. They are up against a clearly superior side and that has now played an entire 90 minutes LESS of football in Russia (add up Croatia's three games of extra time). Nevermind the fact France had an extra day to prepare for Sunday's final anyway. Just like in 1998, Les Bleus will win the World Cup and they'll do so inside of 90 minutes (plus injury time). 

France does have one draw in its six matches in this World Cup, but that was a meaningless affair at the end of the Group Stage vs. Denmark. Incredibly, they have kept a clean sheet in four of the last five matches and doing so again here would not really surprise me. The only real time Les Bleus has been in trouble in this tournament was when they briefly trailed Argentina 2-1 in the Rd of 16. But even then, they quickly stormed back w/ three goals of their own in a 10-minute span to seize back control. They've since blanked both Uruguay & Belgium, two fine sides that are better than any opponent Croatia has faced so far. 

In handicapping this matchup, the fact Croatia has had to play an extra 90 minutes of football obviously looms large. It hasn't caught up w/ them yet, but tired legs could start to show here at the most inopportune time. Consider that no team EVER has won three straight WC matches in extra time. Given the string of clean sheets, it's readily apparent that France's goalkeeper, Hugo Lloris, is in top form right now. I see it being very difficult for Croatia to get one past him. As for Croatia, they've conceded at least once in four straight matches. I know they were the host country, but not being able to put away Russia inside 90 mins wasn't exactly inspiring. I still took them against England (plus the 0.5) feeling that The Three Lions were being vastly overrated in the spot, but that simply isn't the case for France here. 10* France

8* Chi Cubs (10:10 ET): I typically don't need much convincing to fade the Padres, but w/ a visit from the Cubs this weekend, their prospects look especially dire. Chicago took last night's series opener, 5-4 (in 10 innings), thanks to a pair of San Diego errors in the decisive frame. After that closer than expected result, I fully anticipate the Cubs to roll this evening. For my money, this is still the best team in the entire National League as they're now not only tied for 1st place in the Central Division, but also have the top run differential (+106). Their tops in runs scored among Senior Circuit clubs while also giving up the fewest runs. The Padres are a bottom five team in baseball when it comes to run differential (-92) and win percentage (.412). Cubs should roll here. 

As the road team, this is one of the highest money lines of the year for Chicago. But it's more than justifiable. They've won 10 of 13, clearly hitting a "groove," yet they also haven't really been at their "best." That's a pretty scary proposition for the rest of the NL. One player in particular that I expect to have a better second half is tonight's starter Kyle Hendricks. After leading the team in ERA last season (3.03), his team start record is a money-burning 6-12 so far in '18. But last time out, he more closely resembled the pitcher of 2017 as he held the Giants to only an unearned run over 8 1/3 innings of work. San Diego has been a favorite opponent of Hendricks as five of his six career starts against them have been quality ones and he has a 2.50 ERA and 0.882 WHIP. Even more impressive is that he's averaged roughly seven innings per start vs. the Padres while limiting them to a .204 average. He's allowed just 12 runs on 29 hits w/ a 41-6 KW ratio in 39 2/3 IP.

Petco Park has a reputation of being "pitcher friendly," but don't tell that to Luis Perdomo, who will toe the rubber tonight for the home team. Perdomo has an 11.57 ERA and 2.571 WHIP in three starts here this season and quite frankly he's been no better when he takes his act out on the road. The team has won just one of his six starts this season and that was back in April, against Houston of all teams (was +240 on the ML!). His last start was not good as he gave up six runs on 10 hits and had no strikeouts. Since returning to the rotation at the start of this month, Perdomo has three strikeouts against seven walks in 12 2/3 IP. That's simply terrible. Let's also note San Diego has lost three in a row and their anemic offense has averaged just 3.0 rpg over the L8 contests. 8* Chi Cubs

8* San Francisco (10:05 ET): Last night, we were able to get what I felt was an outstanding price on Madison Bumgarner & the Giants. Oakland came in hot, but MadBum extinguished them w/ six innings of one-run ball (on just three hits) and the Giants' offense poured it on late, making it a 7-1 final. That was just the A's sixth loss in their L25 games as they came into this battle of Bay Area teams having just taken three of four from the Astros (in Houston!). But last night's loss could prove to be a costly one as All-Star 2B Jed Lowrie bruised his leg and now his status for next week's Midsummer Classic is even up in the air (currently listed as "day to day"). As I said in yday's analysis, the Giants have been a really strong home team this year (now 31-17) and I'll take 'em again Saturday night. 

While we obviously won't have Bumgarner to lean on again here, I still think starter Jeff Samardzija can get it done against an A's lineup that could be w/o Lowrie and certainly w/o a designated hitter (NL park). Don't necessarily focus in on the former Notre Dame wide receiver's numbers, or the fact he comes into tonight on six-start losing skid. Obviously, neither of those things are good, but Oakland starter Brett Anderson has numbers that are just as bad. Samardzija missed more than a month before coming back exactly a week ago to face St. Louis. Even though the Giants lost, he gave up just the three runs and 53 of his 81 pitches were strikes. Regardless if Lowrie plays, the A's lineup will not be as strong as per usual here. 

Anderson comes off a strong outing where he tossed five scoreless innings vs. Cleveland. But, that's not at all indicative of how he's pitched for most of this season. Anderson has a 1.771 WHIP in his five starts and is not exactly an "innings-eater." He's also just 2-4 w/ a 4.53 ERA in nine career starts vs. SF. I firmly believe that the A's are bound to "cool off" heading into the All-Star Break as they've been a clear overachiever of late. In fact, both of these teams have won more games than they "should" (going by run differential). But it has been Oakland "playing above its head" more so lately and I see them continuing to regress back towards the mean. 8* San Francisco

10* Cleveland (7:15 ET): At long last, the Indians stopped their losing streak to the Yankees (at 7 games) last night. It was a streak that dated back to LY's infamous ALDS where the Tribe blew a 2-0 series advantage. Friday's win didn't come easy though as the suspect bullpen gave up a pair of runs to make it a one-run final. But considering I was on 'em, I'll take it, and will come right back w/ Cleveland again tonight. The Yankees' advantages in the bullpen aside, the Indians are the highest scoring home team in all of baseball at 6.1 runs per game. They can nullify that "bullpen disadvantage" again by jumping out to a nice lead, similar to last night. 

Seven-plus strong innings from starter Shane Bieber also helped big-time last night. I expect something similar here from Mike Clevinger, who threw 7 1/3 innings at Yankee Stadium back on May 6th. Though he ended up w/ a no-decision (Indians lost 7-4), Clevinger allowed only two runs and also finished w/ 10 strikeouts, which - at the time - marked a season-high. Lately, Clevinger has been a strikeout machine though. He's had 10 or more K's in three of his last five outings, including tying a season-high w/ 11 his last time out. He did allow five runs (also tied for a season-high), but I expect a bounce back in that department here. I say that knowing full well that Clevinger has dropped B2B home starts only one time all season and that was back in late April/early May. 

It will be a familiar face opposing the Indians tonight as CC Sabathia gets the starting nod for New York. Sabathia pitched here in Cleveland for many years and still ranks in the top five in their franchise history for wins and strikeouts. But the hefty lefty had a rough go of it his last time out, giving up five runs in five innings against Baltimore. That was the second time in five starts that Sabathia lost as a monster (i.e north of -200) favorite on the ML. His L7 starts have all stayed Under, but that's not necessarily due to great pitching as he a 1.305 WHIP during that time. He also has a 4.42 ERA on the road this year. The Indians are one of the few teams in baseball that can outslug the Yankees and that's precisely what I think they'll do Saturday night in front of a national television audience. 10* Cleveland

8* Belgium (10:00 AM ET): By its very definition, any consolation game is going to find its participants in a tough spot emotionally. Such is certainly the case for the 3rd place game Saturday in the World Cup when England meets Belgium. England thought it was in the driver's seat (and they were) after scoring quickly against Croatia in Wednesday's semifinal. But from that point on, they were steadily outplayed and ended up losing in extra time. Belgium has its "Golden Generation," but that proved not to be enough against France as they fell 1-0 in the first semifinal (Tuesday). While 3rd place games traditionally feature a higher average of goals per game than most WC matches (that's why O/U line is so high here), I think the smarter and safer play is on Belgium Saturday. 

These teams are no strangers to one another. They, in fact, played in the final game of the Group Stage w/ Belgium prevailing 1-0. Now, from a handicapping perspective, it's tough to ascertain much from that match. Neither side was particularly motivated (both had already clinched spots in the Rd of 16) and there was a pretty clear case that the LOSER would end up in the easier side of the bracket. It all ended up being a moot point obviously, but I think what is interesting is that Belgium still won despite not really putting its best foot forward. Granted, the respective Starting XI's were much different than what we'll presumably see here. But I don't think there's any denying that Belgium was the more talented side two weeks ago and the same holds true today. 

Of the two sides here, I believe England will find it harder to shake the disappointment of losing in the semifinals. They were ahead of Croatia for 60+ minutes, only to lose in extra time (game-winning goal scored in the 109th minute). Belgium was largely outplayed by France and thus could (i.e. should) be looking to make up for that. There's also the matter of that they have had an extra day of rest coming into this third place game. While neither side is really looking forward to playing this game, I think Belgium will simply be more motivated in addition to being more talented. "We want to win. When you finish a tournament you carry over the feeling of the last game. We know that," said coach Roberto Martinez. "We don't want to take anything but a positive feeling out of the World Cup. Tomorrow's game would help a lot towards achieving that." 8* Belgium 

8* San Francisco (10:15 ET): The way I see it, the Giants have a number of significant edges coming into this first battle of 2018 between the two Bay Area teams. One is that they had Thursday off. Two is Madison Bumgarner. Three is that they are catching the A's off the "emotional high" of taking three of four from the Astros (in Houston!) in the previous series. Oakland definitely qualifies as a "surprise" at this point and their numbers away from home (average 5.5 rpg!) are downright shocking. But I anticipate Bumgarner holding them in check here and the Giants are a profitable 30-17 at home. Good price on MadBum given the circumstances.

This was the second straight season where Bumgarner began the year on the DL. But he came back earlier than he did in 2017 and the big difference is the Giants aren't already in a huge hole. In fact, they're actually players in the playoff picture w/ a 49-46 record, which is just four games back of the 2nd Wild Card. The fact they've done that despite going only 3-4 in Bumgarner starts is pretty impressive as far as I'm concerned. Note though that while they are just 3-4 in MadBum's seven starts, that includes a 3-1 mark here at home w/ the pitcher turning in a 2.05 ERA and 0.987 WHIP in those four outings. Last time out, he got away w/ giving up four runs as the Giants wound up beating the Cardinals 13-8. Considering he'd allowed 3 ER or fewer in each of his four outings before that, not to mention all but one of the first six, I'd expect him to be even sharper tonight.

The A's have won 13 of 16 after shocking taking three of four in Houston to start the week. But I firmly believe this team is due to come back down to Earth, sooner rather than later. Not sure I trust Edwin Jackson despite the 3-0 TSR as the veteran has been getting plenty of run support so far. That run support may not be so much tonight as Oakland loses the DH from its normal batting order. Jackson had more walks (4) than K's (3) his last time out as well. Give me the Giants in this one. 8* San Francisco

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Both of these teams have been locked in fierce battles for the top spot in their respective divisions since the start of the 2018 season. But even though they should be considered the "upstart," Atlanta is the club whose prospects I prefer more, moving forward. Part of that is they don't have to contend w/ the hard-charging Dodgers, like Arizona does. But I'll also note the Braves' run differential which has been at or near the top of the Senior Circuit for much of this year. For tonight's series opener, they have a nice edge in that they were off yday (D'backs were in Colorado. Plus, it's a home game and they look to have the better starting pitcher going. Both teams currently are one-half game out of first place, but after tonight it'll be just the Braves that have a chance to move back into that top spot.

Atlanta comes in having lost six of eight. However, most of that damage was done on the road against Milwaukee and the Yankees. They had to settle for a split w/ Toronto to open this homestand, winning Tuesday by score of 9-5. That was their highest scoring effort of this month, which is a good sign. On the other side of the ledger, they'll send Anibal Sanchez to the mound. Sanchez, who took a shutout into the 7th inning in his last start, has the best team start record on the staff (7-3) and has a 2.86 ERA and 1.023 WHIP in those 10 starts. He's been even better at home as his WHIP drops all the way down to 0.882. I'd now like to reiterate something I've pointed out before and that's Arizona has one of the lowest team batting averages in all of baseball (currently 28th at .231). I fully expect Sanchez to hold them in check. 

Arizona's Zack Godley has a misleading 11-7 TSR when you consider he has a 4.85 ERA and 1.556 WHIP. His numbers predictably get even worse on the road (5.82, 1.765) and are not befitting a pitcher w/ a winning record. Godley is off a solid effort his last time out, but that was against the last place Padres and at home. He really hasn't faced a great - or even good - offense of late and Atlanta comes in averaging nearly five full runs per game at home. The Braves are 4th in team batting average (.260) and top six in runs scored, OBP and slugging. The D'backs have dropped 9 of 13 after being outscored 24-3 the L2 days by Colorado. 10* Atlanta

8* Run Line Cleveland (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Indians +1.5. Taking Cleveland didn't work out so well yday (lost 7-4), but I have no problem coming right back w/ them today. While last night did mark the Tribe's seventh straight loss to the Yankees (dating back to LY's LDS), these teams are a lot more even than how they've been priced. Cleveland, leaders of a weak AL Central, are still 29-18 at Progressive Field this season where they average 6.1 runs game. That makes the highest scoring team in all of baseball, mind you. Yankees starter Domingo German has poor numbers away from Yankee Stadium, so w/ the revenge angle still in play, I'm willing to say Cleveland does no worse than a one-run loss in this spot. 

Last night, the Indians were able to score four times off Luis Severino, knocking him out after just five innings. But Corey Kluber's curious struggles vs. New York continued as he too allowed four runs through five frames. Unlike Severino, he was allowed to stay in the game and that proved to be a mistake as he gave up two runs in the top of the eighth, breaking open what was a tie game. Though they were held below their YTD scoring average here at home yday, the offense does not concern me here w/ Cleveland. They'll be facing German, who has a 7.10 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in five road starts (still winles). That's even after allowing just one run at Toronto on Sunday, which was actually an inefficient start as he threw 100+ pitches in just six innings. Now it is imperative that the Indians get to the rookie early as the Yankees do lay claim to the best bullpen in baseball. But considering German is somehow unbeaten despite a 4.85 ERA his L6 starts, I'd say he's "due" for an off-night.

Cleveland will start Shane Bieber, a rookie himself that is off his 1st career defeat. He had a perfect 5-0 TSR going into Sunday's start vs. Oakland, but allowed four runs in six innings. Ironically, he'd done the same in his start previous to that one, but was bailed out by the offense vs. KC. Bieber has allowed exactly 4 ER in three of his six starts, but just two total in the other three. He also comes in sporting a 36-6 KW ratio. The Indians have to start winning more at home (given their scoring average here) and giving those offensive numbers, I'd say taking an additional 1.5 runs seems like a sound wager. 8* Run Line Cleveland (+1.5)

8* Run Line Minnesota (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Twins +1.5. Both of these teams won yday afternoon. Both also come into this series playing quite well. In the case of Tampa Bay, that's "really well." The resurgent Rays, buoyed by creative management of the pitching staff, have won five straight and 14 of their last 18. Not to be outdone, the Twins (still eight games below .500) have won six of their last seven. Now you could certainly poke a hole in Minny's win streak as it came at the expense of Baltimore and Kansas City, the two worst teams in all of MLB. But the Rays resurgence is also not w/o question marks. While they've won 14 of their last 15 home games (holding their opponent to two runs or less 12 times!), this team's road record is still only 22-27. They average just 3.8 rpg away from Tropicana Field. That and a revenge angle have me on the Twins in Thursday's series opener. 

If you haven't been following the team, the Rays have gotten very creative w/ their pitching staff. Back in mid-May, manager Kevin Cash elected to try something new. That would be using relievers as starters, "openers" as he likes to call them, but not asking them to log "starter-like" innings. The results (thus far) have been nothing short of incredible as the Rays have the lowest team ERA in all of baseball the L2 months. Yesterday was a fine example of what Cash has been doing as five Rays pitchers combined to hold the Tigers to two runs on seven hits. Now, that said, they still almost lost the game, needing a three-run C.J. Cron home run in the bottom of the seventh to pull out the 4-2 victory. It should also be pointed out they were playing the Tigers. Similar to Minnesota, TB has faced a weak slate of opposition recently, including the Mets and Marlins. 

Ironically, it won't be an "opener" today for Cash & the Rays, but rather their best traditional starter. Blake Snell was an All-Star snub (just ask teammate Chris Archer!), given that he leads the league in ERA (2.10) and has a 0.42 ERA/0.877 WHIP his L3 starts overall. However, if there is one issue w/ Snell, it is his control. Or rather lack of it. He has issued 19 walks his L5 starts alone. Look for the Twins to take advantage tonight as they've already averaged more than 5.0 rpg the last week. I already mentioned that the Rays' offense can't be reliably counted upon on the road and that will work to the favor of Twins' starter Kyle Gibson, who has pitched better than his 3-6 record indicates. He threw seven solid innings his last time out and has a 105-46 KW ratio for the year. One final note I'll add is that the Twins have revenge coming into this series as they were swept at "the Trop" back in April. But they have a winning record (25-20) at home. They do no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Minnesota 

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): The Dodgers bounced back from a loss on Tuesday night, beating the Padres last night by a score of 4-2. Now they can take the series and I think that they will. San Diego simply isn't a team that you should fear as their perennial offensive woes (currently rank 27th or lower in runs scored, team batting average, OBP & slugging) have them w/ a bottom five run differential in all of baseball (-90). On the flip side, the Dodgers remain far more formidable than their (50-42) record shows as they not only have the best run differential in the division (+79), but are also #2 in that department in the entire N.L. (trailing only the Cubs). The Dodgers should pretty easily make it three out of four over the lowly Padres tonight. 

The Dodgers now own an 8-4 edge in the season series w/ the Padres and have won 34 of their last 50 games overall. Last night, they got a strong start from Kenta Maeda and tonight will give the baseball to Ross Stripling, who was just added to the NL All-Star team. Stripling is 7-2 w/ a 2.22 ERA in 24 appearances this season, 13 of those being starts. Perhaps the most impressive thing about him is a 103-13 KW ratio. Stripling has certainly been a major surprise in a Dodgers' rotation that has dealt w/ injuries and thus needed someone to step up. His last time out, he went six innings and held the Angels to just one run and three hits in what was the Dodgers' lone victory in that series. He also beat the Padres back on 5.25, allowing just an unearned run in 6 2/3 innings, while striking out a season-best 10. If he had enough innings to qualify, Stripling would be #2 in ERA in the entire Senior Circuit. 

Stripling will be opposed by Tyson Ross here. Ross has been the subject of much trade discussion, given the Padres aren't going anywhere. But he's certainly done a lousy job of auditioning. His L3 starts have produced a 11.77 ERA and 2.077 WHIP after he allowed eight runs in just two innings his last time out. He allowed seven runs in five innings his start before that. Ross does have 10 quality starts under his belt, but the recent decline is concerning, not just because it devalues him as a potential trade target, but also because there are known health concerns that could be rearing their ugly head one again. After surgery last year, he posted a 7.71 ERA in 12 starts for the Texas Rangers. He didn't have a single strikeout in his last start and the Dodgers have given him all sorts of trouble throughout his career as he's 0-7 against them (.265 average). Again, this should be a pretty easy one for the road team, who is +1.1 rpg on the road this season (SD -1.0 rpg at home). 8* LA Dodgers

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): This just might be the lowest price I've ever seen on Corey Kluber and he's pitching at home, no less! Now a situation such as this is not w/o reason and in this instance the reason is Luis Severino will be pitching for the visting Yankees. Severino happens to be the most profitable pitcher in all of baseball this season (+13.2 units) thanks to a remarkable 17-2 team start record. But the irony here is that Kluber has the lower WHIP (0.879 to 0.965) as well as a comparable ERA (2.49 vs. 2.12) despite having a far "worse" 12-7 TSR (team is 0-3 when Kluber does not factor into the decision). Severino is 14-2 personally w/ NY going 3-0 when he doesn't factor into the decision. As great as Severino has been, the price on Kluber (at home!) is simply too good to pass up and the Indians have revenge here, not only from a three-game sweep back in early May (at Yankee Stadium), but also LY's ALDS. 

Heading into October of last year, Cleveland was the betting favorite to win the American League and possibly its first World Series since 1948. (At one point, they won 22 straight games). But it was not to be. Despite taking a 2-0 series lead over the Yankees in the LDS, they met their match, never winning again and getting eliminated in a winner-take-all Game 5. Kluber played a significant role in the Indians coming up short in that series. After being bailed out in Game 1 (he allowed six runs in just 2 2/3 IP, but Cleveland won 9-8), he allowed three runs in 3 2/3 IP in the decisive Game 5. He did not face the Yankees back in May when the Indians were swept. Now he comes in looking to snap his team's six game losing streak in this battle of AL titans. Kluber had one bad start at the end of July (at St. Louis, an unfamiliar park to him), but since then has been his usual dominant self. Last time out, he held Oakland scoreless over seven innings, improving to 7-1 at home where his ERA/WHIP are 1.43/0.797 for the season.

Though they were eliminated here at Progressive Field last October, the other five losses Cleveland has taken against the Yankees during this head to head skid have come up in NY. Here at home, I say they still have the advantage, Kluber or not. The Tribe is an impressive 29-17 at Progressive Field this season and are the second highest scoring home team in all of baseball (5.9 rpg) after scoring 19 times in a bludgeoning of the Reds last night. That rout sets them up well here and should definitely scare Severino, who wasn't all that sharp on the road (at Toronto) his last time out anyway. Despite his team still getting the win, he gave up two home runs and lasted only five innings. 8* Cleveland

8* Run Line Toronto (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Blue Jays +1.5. This AL East rivalry has certainly gone Boston's way in 2018 (not to mention 2017 as well) as they are already 7-2 head to head w/ the Jays this season. That includes a three-game sweep here at Fenway back on Memorial Day weekend. Since the start of last season, the Red Sox have taken 20 of 28 overall meetings. But I look for Thursday's series opener to go a little differently, or at least the road team to do no worse than a one-run loss. Boston has won a lot of one-run affairs this year (14-8 in such games), so playing the matchup this way guards us against that. It also helps that this is a night game where the Sox are "only" 42-24 (as opposed to a ridiculous 23-5 in day games). With Saturday & Sunday both day games, this may be the Jays' best shot in the series.

Toronto had to settle for a split w/ Atlanta in its previous series as it lost yday, 9-5. It was their fifth straight series they failed to win (tied three of them) despite winning the series opener EVERY time! It should be noted that three of their previous seven losses have come exactly by one run. In an effort to continue winning series openers, the Jays will send J.A. Happ out to the mound Thursday. Originally, it was going to be Marco Estrada, but manager John Gibbson swapped their spots in the rotation (Estrada now starting Friday). This actually works out better as Happ has been the staff's most reliable (and profitable!) starter w/ a 10-5 record and 1.18 WHIP. The southpaw was outstanding vs. the Red Sox when he faced them earlier this year, allowing just one run in seven innings and posting a season-high 10 strikeouts. Toronto actually won as well, 4-3, though Happ didn't actually factor into the decision. 

There was a time when David Price consistently deserved to be in this price range, but I believe that time has passed. Thursday's starter for Boston comes in sporting an ugly 8.36 ERA and 1.643 WHIP his L3 starts. That's after giving up a total of 12 runs in his last two, which have spanned a combined eight frames. Price has beaten Toronto twice this season, but he lasted only 5 and 5 1/3 innings. The Blue Jays' hitters were able to work the count against him both times as well, drawing a total of seven walks. While the Red Sox come into this series having won nine straight, the last two teams they swept were the Royals and Rangers. This series will be tougher and Toronto could very well steal the opener tonight. 8* Run Line Toronto

10* Pittsburgh (7:10 ET): I liked the Pirates in this matchup from the start, but with Milwaukee being taken into extra innings by Miami last night (lost 5-4 in 12), it becomes even stronger. The Bucs wrapped up their series w/ Washington earlier in the day (afternoon) and did so w/ a 2-0 shutout, making it three wins in their last four games overall. Whereas their last two series (Washington and Philadelphia) saw them come in w/ revenge for prior sweeps, this one is a bit of a different situation. This will be a five-game series (w/ a doubleheader on Saturday) as the teams have a game to make up from last month. Pittsburgh has played the Brew Crew tough this season, taking three of the five head to head matchups. Make it one more after tonight.

The Milwaukee bats have not performed all that well against Pittsburgh pitching, scoring just three runs total in the previous three head to head matchup and getting shutout twice. The Pirate pitcher responsible for all three of those runs allowed is Jameson Taillon and he'll get the baseball tonight. Despite a 1-4 career record vs. Milwaukee, I expect him to pitch well here. And why wouldn't I given that he's gone eight consecutive starts w/o allowing more than three earned runs. He has a WHIP that's much better than his ERA (especially at home) and the former is the more important stat, IMO. I think it speaks volumes that the Bucs are favored over the first place team in their division here and the line is climbing! 

Milwaukee counters w/ journeyman Wade Miley, who will be making his first start in over two months. He's started only twice all season (2-0 TSR) and has a a 1.42 ERA + a 1.264 WHIP. But in his case, the WHIP isn't nearly as impressive as the ERA. He also really has just one "true" start under his belt so far in '18. That's because he left the second (5.8 vs. Cleveland) after recording just one out due to suffering the oblique injury. It's tough to trust pitchers making their 1st start after a long stint on the DL and I'm "doubly" suspicious over Miley. I'm also not yet sold on the Brewers as a whole as they lead the division over a Cubs team that has a vastly superior run differential. Not sure Milwaukee finishes the year in first place or is even there going into the All-Star Break! 10* Pittsburgh 

10* Colorado (8:40 ET): For a fourth straight time, the Rockies lost to the D'backs last night, all of those losses occurring here at Coors Field. They were swept here a month ago and last night dropped a 5-3 decision after a back-breaking four run seventh by Arizona. It's not like starter Tyler Anderson didn't do his job (as I thought he would). Anderson went six innings and allowed just one run on three hits. But a high-pitch count (109) resulted in an early exit and the bullpen blew it from there. Though there's no Anderson tonight, I'm still willing to back the Rockies here at home as the revenge angle remains in play and they'll be facing a pitcher that has struggled mightily so far in 2018. 

Shelby Miller's season didn't get underway until a couple of weeks ago. The starter tonight for Arizona was coming off Tommy John surgery, which robbed him of more than a full year of action. Quite simply, Miller has not been the same pitcher he was before the surgery. In three starts this year, he has a 9.00 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. He's allowed at least five runs in every start, never lasting longer than 5 1/3 innings. Coors Field is obviously not the most likely place for a pitcher to rectify these kind of issues. Even worse is who Miller has faced since his return: the Marlins, Padres and Giants, three of the worst hitting teams in the entire National League. As per usual, the Rockies are one of the highest scoring home teams in all of baseball (5.2 rpg) and should take full advantage of this opportunity to knock around Miller tonight.

No German Marquez isn't exactly having a Cy Young worthy campaign for the Rockies either. But, unlike Miller, he's recently shown signs of turning things around. In his last two starts, Marquez is 2-0 w/ a 1.29 ERA and 14-0 KW ratio. Granted, both were on the road, but he did beat two quality teams in the Dodgers and Mariners. The two runs he allowed over those L2 starts both came via solo home run. Incredibly, Arizona has won nine straight times here at Coors Field, which is the longest losing streak the Rockies have had against any opponent in the history of this venue. I say it comes to an end tonight as I still question a D'backs offense that ranks 28th in team batting average. 10* Colorado

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): We're back to Jacob deGrom here as previously stated, I believe he's due to experience far better results moving forward. Perhaps there has been no more "hard luck" pitcher in baseball to this point as deGrom is saddled w/ a 7-11 TSR despite leading all of MLB in ERA (1.79) and ranking third in WHIP (0.99). Last time out, I had him, and he delivered a season-high eight innings of work while allowing just one run. The Mets actually won the game too, 5-1 over the red-hot Rays. It was the second straight time I'd taken deGrom and come away w/ a winning ticket as back on 6.18, he again went eight innings in a 12-2 win over Colorado. I'll keep riding him until that misleading record is rectified as this is simply one of the top pitchers in all of baseball. 

The Phillies are in first place this late in the season for the first time since 2011. Note they'd finish that season w/ 102 wins. I do not expect this year's club to maintain that kind of pace moving forward as they've actually been slight overachievers so far. Note that despite a 51-39 record, the Phils have a run differential (+25) that's actually inferior to that of the third place Nationals!  They've been fortunate to go 19-8 in one-run games this season, not to mention 6-2 in extra innings. After splitting a doubleheader w/ the Mets on Monday, they won 7-3 last night, but still remain sub-.500 on the road for the season (21-23). They've also traditionally struggled against deGrom, who is 6-1 w/ a 2.74 ERA in 12 career matchups.

Pitching opposite deGrom here will be Vince Velasquez, who is coming off a short stint on the DL. The Mets have not been Velasquez's favorite opponent by any means as he's just 1-3 w/ a 4.61 ERA in six career matchups. Velasquez suffered a bruised forearm on 6.30 vs. Washington when was hit by a comebacker. Though it was a short stint, I'm always worried about a pitcher in his first start back after spending time on the DL. Their rhythm (important!) has obviously been interrupted. I just don't think Velasquez is a guy who can hold the Mets in check the way that is required to beat deGrom. Yes, the run support has been lousy all season, but deGrom has allowed just 53 hits total in his L10 starts (71 IP) w/ a 86-15 KW ratio and 1.77 ERA. 8* NY Mets

10* Croatia +0.5 (2:00 ET): As I said in my previous analysis, it's looking more and more like "the year" for England. I took The Three Lions in the quarterfinals when they blanked Sweden, 2-0, arguably their finest performance of this tournament to date. There's a real irony to the fact it was their lone loss (1-0 to Belgium) that set them up so well in this - clearly - weaker half of the draw. But make no mistake about it, their semifinal opponent - Croatia - is no pushover. Sure, it has taken penalty kicks for the Blazers to advance each of the last two rounds (over Denmark, then Russia). That left me unhappy as I was on them both times. But remember that it took PK's for England to get by Colombia as well in the Rd of 16. I see an even match here and Croatia will do no worse than a draw after 90 mins.

A lot is being made of the extra football Croatia has had to play just to get here. But the reality is that they've played only 30 mins more than their English counterparts. I view that as a non-factor. More intriguing to me is how England handles its new role of the hunted (as opposed to being the hunter). They performed quite well against Sweden, their 1st match of the tournament where they did not concede. At the same time, it was also the first match where Harry Kane failed to find the back of the net. However, this is England's first trip to the World Cup semis in 28 years. The pressure is squarely on them Wednesday and I expect them to play a bit cautious.

Croatia has scored 10 goals in the tournament, just one fewer than England. They've also been less reliant on set pieces. They clearly have the edge in the midfield as well, where led by Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic, they may be as talented as any team in the entire draw. Also keep in mind that 6 of England's 11 goals scored in this tournament came against a lousy Panama side. Croatia is unbeaten in its last six matches overall. They will not go down easily and I feel England is overvalued in this particular spot. 10* Croatia

8* Washington (12:35 ET): The Nats won yday, 5-1, thereby squaring away this series at a game each. For today's rubber match, they'll send Gio Gonzalez to the bump. Despite being just a game over .500 currently, the Nats own a run differential (+31) that is actually superior to the first place team in their own division (Phillies). So I'm anticipating a resurgence here and we've already started to see a bit of that as the took the first three games of their last series against the sorry Marlins. As for Pittsburgh, they've been trending in the opposite direction lately, dropping 7 of their last 10. Washington has had their number this seaosn, taking five of the six head to head meetings so far and I expect Wednesday to be no different.

Both starters here have poor numbers over their last three starts, but in Gonzalez's case, that can be attributed to one off outing. Back on 6.25, he lasted just an inning while giving up six runs against Tampa Bay. But since then, he's bounced back w/ B2B decent efforts. Each started lasted only five innings, but Gonzalez gave up just five runs total. Still winless over his L6 starts, today is poised to "be the day" for Gonzalez as he's 4-1 lifetime vs. Pittsburgh. This particular edition of the Pirates came into yday averaging just 3.6 runs over its last seven games and failed to even hit that benchmark on Tuesday. 

Bucs' starter Trevor Williams is off his shortest outing of 2018, having made it only 2 1/3 innings while giving up five runs. The end result was a 17-5 loss to Philadelphia. That poor performance came on the heels of him allowing four runs in 4 2/3 innings to a bad San Diego team. Williams is 1-5 w/ a 7.02 ERA his L9 starts and his one career start vs. Washington didn't go that well as he allowed three runs in 5 2/3 innings. The Nats won that game 3-1 and swept the series. They are simply the better team here and I believe will take the series. 8* Washington

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): Last night's 8-2 win (behind six shutout innings from Clayton Kershaw) only re-emphasized the likelihood that the Dodgers wil roll over the Padres in this series. At least, that's my view on things as LA should continue its push to the top of the NL West while San Diego is destined to remain at the bottom. Dodger Blue is better than its record as they've now outscored opponents by 80 runs over the course of the season. Among NL teams, only the Cubs have a greater run differential. The Padres have the second WORST run differential in the Senior Circut (-91) and are the only team "out of it" in the NL West. Recent form mirrors long-term results as well w/ LA winning six of eight and San Diego dropping six of its last eight. 

The Dodgers have been a strong road team this year, averaging 5.3 rpg and outscoring foes by an impressive 1.2 rpg. With those kind of numbers, you'd expect them to have a better record than 22-17 away from home. They did just drop two of three this past weekend to the Angels (were the road team), but before that it was a dominant three-game sweep of the Pirates, whom they outscored 31-8 in three games. Starting tonight will be Rich Hill, who believe it or not has just two wins in his 10 starts. But one of those came his last time out as he held the Pirates to two runs in what ended up being a 7-4 final. Hill has been really strong in three of his four starts since coming off the DL, particularly on 6.29 vs. Colorado. This sets up as one of his easier starts of the season considering San Diego is bottom four in all of MLB in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging. 

The Padres don't exactly enjoy a strong homefield advantage either. They are 19-26 at Petco Park and getting outscored by an average of 1.2 rpg. They've really struggled against Hill in the past, hitting just .184 off him. Hill has averaged 11.12 K's per nine innings in his career vs. SD while posting a 3.18 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. The Padres counter w/ Eddie Lauer, who has been much improved over the last month or so, but it's also hard to look past those first two months of the season when his ERA was a ghastly 7.67. He also still owns a 1.761 WHIP for the season. San Diego is just 3-7 vs. the Dodgers this season and clearly are the inferior side here. Let's take advantage of a curiously low price on the road team in this one. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Colorado (8:40 ET): This is a revenge spot for the Rockies, who were swept by the D'backs - here at Coors Field - last month. Though the Rockies' record here at Coors is not as good as it probably ought to be, I just can't see Arizona coming in and winning a fourth straight time here. Though the D'backs are in first place in the NL West, it is the Rockies that come into this series as the hotter team, having won 8 of 10. Arizona just had to settle for a split w/ last place San Diego, even though that series was at home. Overall, the D'backs have dropped 7 of 10. It's a battle of hot starting pitchers on Monday, but ultimately home field advantage and the revenge factor should prevail.  

Tyler Anderson will lead the Rockies into battle tonight. While he hasn't fared all that well at home this season (2-6 TSR), there's no denying how good he's been lately. He comes into tonight working on a 16-inning scoreless streak, having gone 8 innings in B2B starts while allowing a total of just six hits (17-3 KW ratio). And Anderson's last start was here at Coors as he held the Giants to just two hits in a dominant effort. He's had four really strong efforts over his L6 starts overall, allowing three runs total on 17 hits. Though this ballpark can obviously have a dramatic impact on a team's hitting, it should be noted that the D'backs come in sporting the third lowest batting average in MLB, both overall (.231) and on the road (.225). I realize they swept here last month, but I wouldn't bank on them taking full advantage of the "Coors effect" necessarily. 

Of course, the Rockies do allow the highest average of runs per game at home in all of baseball. But that is to be expected. It will be more interesting to observe how Arizona's Pat Corbin (0.95 ERA, 0.842 WHIP L3 starts) performs here tonight. Corbin has a 4.68 ERA in 17 career starts vs. Colorado and it's been awhile since he pitched here (last season). Note that it's been some hard luck lately for Corbin as those L3 starts have all been no-decisions for him and the team has lost twice. Before that, he had given up five or more runs three times in four starts. So the expectation for here is probably somewhere in between and like I said earlier, I just can't see the Rockies dropping another home game to their division rival. 10* Colorado 

10* Under France/Belgium (2:00 ET):  "Bold prediction" - It will be an all European Final at this year's World Cup. In all seriousness, that scenario is guaranteed w/ a Final Four of France, Belgium, Croatia and England. The winner of this first semifinal is very likely to be the betting favorite come Sunday's final. Belgium has yet to taste defeat in this tournament, having run through the group stage en route to a perfect 3-0 record (including a 1-0 win over England where neither side really "wanted" to win). But there was an extremely close call in the Rd of 16 as they had to rally back from a 2-0 deficit against Japan, scoring three times in the final 25 minutes. But any doubts about this side quickly evaporated with a convincing 2-1 win over Brazil in the quarterfinals. 

France has also not tasted defeat here in Russia, but did play to a scoreless (uninspired) draw w/ Peru in the final game of the group stage. They've beaten Argentina and Uruguay here in the knockout stage, which is as impressive a pair of wins as any of the final four can claim. The 2-0 quarterfinal win over Uruguay was the third clean sheet Les Blues have kept in this World Cup. In fact, outside the wild 4-3 win over Argentina, they've conceded only one other time and that one goal was conceded in the opener, a 2-1 win over Australia. France heads into the semis as the betting favorite to win the WC w/ slightly better odds than Belgium and England. 

Belgium has been the highest scoring side in this tournament, but note that they scored eight times against overmatched Panama & Tunisia. The difference against Brazil was an own goal in the 13th minute. It should be noted they were below 50% possession in that match and outshot 26-8. After that and the close escape vs. Japan, it is difficult to imagine Belgium advancing again, unless they're better. They have tightened up defensively as the tournament has progressed and France's defense has been outstanding thus far as well. Under is going to be my call here as the stakes are too high for a wide-open game. 10* Under France/Belgium

6* Minnesota (8:10 ET): Kansas City is on another long losing streak (nine games) and it sure doesn't look like it'll end tonight as they are substantial underdogs to the division rival Twins. In case you've been sleeping under a rock, the Royals are a very bad team, my choice for the worst in all of baseball as they've already been outscored by a mind-blowing 186 runs this season. The current losing skid is already their sixth of five games or more, not to mention their third nine-game losing streak. They've yet to drop 10 in a row, so they have that going for them, but that ends after tonight as I see them being no match for Jose Berrios, who has been outstanding here at home all season. The Twins come in hot having just swept Baltimore (4-game series) over the weekend. 

Berrios has a 7-2 team start record here at Target Field w/ a 2.93 ERA and 0.857 WHIP. Aside from one bad start at Wrigley Field (unfamiliar setting), he had himself an outstanding month of June overall and started July w/ a quality outing against Milwaukee. Unfortunately though, three of the five hits he allowed (in 7 IP) were solo home runs and the Twins lost the game 3-2. But I don't see the long-ball being an issue here considering Berrios has allowed all of four at home all season and the Royals are dead last in all of baseball w/ just 70 HR's total. Berrios did not get to face the Royals when the Twins dropped two of three in KC back in late May.

Minnesota's offense woke up yday, scoring 10 runs as they finished off the sweep of Baltimore. Having a home stand that includes the Orioles and Royals (both last place teams) is a pretty ideal situation, if you ask me. It's one the Twins simply MUST take advantage of, if they are to remain relevant in the AL Central. Facing Danny Duffy tonight helps too as the Royals lefty has not been good this year w/ a 4-8 record in 18 starts to go along w/ a 5.19 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Duffy allowed six runs in six innings his last tine out, a 6-4 loss to Cleveland. He actually has a strong track record vs. the Twins, but remember the majority of those games came when KC was a better team. The Royals are a stunning 13-40 in night games this season. 6* Minnesota

8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): In playing AGAINST the Rays over the weekend (technically Friday), I ironically, picked up a lot of respect for what this club has been doing over the L2 months. That fade wound up being a winner on this end as TB lost 5-1 to Jacob deGrom and the Mets. But they quickly bounced back to win in shutout fashion in each of the next two days, dropping their team ERA to 3.56, fifth best in all of MLB. They're actually #1 in that category since mid-May and that coincides w/ the time that skipper Kevin Cash decided to use relievers as starters, "openers" as he calls them. Winners of 11 of their last 15 overall, the Rays get (perhaps) their best starter back for Monday, that being Chris Archer. I see his return being a glorious one as TB should roll the Tigers in this one. 

Archer had been pitching well before landing on the DL (abdominal strain), giving up just 3 ER in 23 2/3 IP. He hasn't been supported much by his offense, which is why the team start record remains subpar (6-7). Case in point, he faced these Tigers back in May and despite giving up two runs in 6 IP, took the loss. But w/ Detroit in a very bad way of late (dropped 15 of 19), expect a much different result here. The Tigers were shutout Sunday (3-0 by Texas) and have scored three runs or fewer in 7 of the last 10 games. The Tampa Bay staff has posted five shutouts in the L15 games. They are allowing just 3.1 rpg at Tropicana Field this year w/ opponents batting .205. The Tigers are a lousy road team (15-29) having been outscored by 1.3 rpg away from home. 

Detroit will send out Francisco Liriano here and the Rays have not been an ideal opponent for him in the past. Last season alone, he posted a 6.61 ERA in four starts against them. Since '09, he's gone 1-4 vs. the Rays, allowing six home runs in seven starts. The home run ball has continued to be an issue for Liriano recently as well. He gave up two in his last start, increasing his total to six in the last four outings. He has just as many walks (12) as he does strikeouts in his L3 starts. I do not expect the Tigers to score much in this series, tonight in particular, as this is an ideal spot for Archer to return. The Rays have been a sneaky good of team late and that should continue w/ a favorable schedule here in July. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians had a disappointing end to their last series, dropping B2B games to the A's. After losing 6-3 (in 11 innings) on Saturday, they were actually shut out on Sunday (6-0), which is rare for a club which averages an impressive 5.9 rpg at Progressive Field this year (2nd highest scoring home team in all of baseball). It was just the third time all season that they have been blanked. I like their chances of bouncing back tonight though, as they get to stay at home, and welcome in a Reds team that is likely due to regress some after a 14-4 stretch. They too lost Saturday & Sunday (to the Cubs), both coming in excruciating fashion. The trip up I-71 has not been kind for Cincy as they're just 13-28 here in Cleveland since '02, their lowest win percentage in any stadium during that time. 

More good news for the Indians is that Mike Clevinger will be on the bump tonight. I used Clevinger in his last start and that ended up being a 15-3 win (over the A's). That was a week ago Sunday, so he'll be well-rested for tonight. He's allowed 3 ER or fewer in five consecutive outings and is 4-1 his L7 w/ a 2.80 ERA. Yes, three of the wins came against the lowly White Sox. But I still see him shutting down the Reds. Plus, just like we saw in his last start, he should be getting plenty of run support here. The fact that Cleveland is #2 in all of MLB in rpg at home is obviously a big reason why they have a 28-15 record here at Progressive Field. It's difficult to imagine them dropping three in a row at home. 

The Reds are an inexplicable 8-2 in Interleague Play this season, but as mentioned before, Cleveland has not been an ideal spot for them through the years. I should also mention that the Reds' success in IL play this season has come about due to taking on a terrible AL Central. Other than the Indians, everyone in that division is destined to finish below .500 w/ the White Sox and Royals both being really bad. Anthony DeSclafani gets the starting nod Monday and while he's gone 3-1 in six starts, he has an ERA of 5.08. That number has actually worsened lately w/ him allowing nine runs in his last two starts, which have spanned just 11 2/3 innings. He gave up three home runs in his last start, which was an Interleague LOSS to the White Sox. The Indians are #2 overall in HR's hit at home this season. 8* Cleveland

10* Run Line Miami (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a play on the run line only where I'm taking the Marlins +1.5. This will be the second straight series that Miami comes in w/ revenge. The last one saw them lose to Washington three more times before eventually avenging yday with a convincing 10-2 victory,. I didn't play any games in that series as I figured Washington was set to turn it around, yet at the same time "knew" the Marlins were going to eventually get a game. They almost did right off the bat, but blew a 9-0 lead in the series opener, which set the tone for the rest of the series. The Fish then dropped the next game (Friday) in walk-off fashion, 3-2, before getting routed on Saturday. I feel that, back home, they'll do no worse than a one-run loss tonight. 

As was the case w/ Washington, Miami will be looking to avenge a four-game sweep here. Milwaukee took all four games from them back in mid-April, but that series was contested at Miller Park. The Marlins have been slightly more competitive here at home this season, getting outscored by only 0.6 rpg as opposed to 2.2 rpg on the road. That's actually quite the difference. Playing tonight's matchup this way obviously guards us against a one-run loss and the Brewers happen to have 21 one-run victories already this season, most in the National League. The Brew Crew happen to have won six of their last seven, including a 10-3 victory Sunday over the Braves. But aside from yday, they really haven't been scoring a ton of late. Ryan Braun will be out of the lineup tonight and possibly until after the All-Star Break. 

Tonight's pitching matchup is interesting because on the surface, you'd think it would be a huge edge to Milwaukee, but that's not really the case. Marlins starter Jose Urena has been one of the most hard-luck pitchers in baseball this season, right next to the Mets' Jacob deGrom. Urena has a terrible 3-14 team start record and his 4.18 ERA won't exactly "knock your socks off" (though it's not terrible either). But Urena has a 1.182 WHIP, which indicates he should have had far more success to this point. Lately, the proverbial "worm" has "started to turn" w/ Urena going 2-2 over his L7 starts. He just threw five shutout innings LW vs. Tampa Bay as the team won 3-0. Urena has allowed 3 ER or less in 10 of his 17 starts this season after going 14-7 in '17. Milwaukee's Chase Anderson has been sharp of late w/ a 1.56 ERA and 0.75 WHIP his L3 starts. But his ground ball to fly ball ratio concerns me. Despite being a first place team, the Brewers are not priced as road favorites this high on the ML that often. So it's an excellent opportunity to grab the +1.5. 10* Run Line Miami (+1.5)

8* Over Dodgers/Angels (8:05 ET): The Dodgers came into this series w/ a red-hot offense, one that had gone Over in four straight games while scoring 37 runs in the process. They'd actually gone Over in 7 of 9 to take over the top spot as the top Over team in baseball temporarily. Theoretically, one would have thought that run would continue here in the "Battle for L.A." considering they'd now have a DH (rather than the pitcher) come up to bat. But that theory has not played out as the first two games of this series have both been low-scoring as the Angels won Friday, 3-2, and then the Dodgers won last night by a 3-1 count. I look for the finale to be a lot higher scoring as it should be a good old-fashioned "slugfest" on ESPN. Take the Over.

Moving to the Angels for a bit, they haven't exactly been a high-scoring home team this season. They average only 3.9 rpg here w/ a .228 batting average. Both of those marks, not surprisingly, rank near the bottom of the league. This is a team that has topped three runs only once in its last six games overall. It hasn't helped that opponents are doing everything they can to avoid pitching to Mike Trout (who has already matched a career-high for intentional walks w/ 15 this season). But let's see how they do versus Alex Wood. Wood allowed just one run in six innings his last time out, not that it mattered as the Dodgers won 17-1. It was the fourth straight Wood start that the Dodgers won. His ERA on the road is up a bit though (4.04) and the Over is 10-6-1 in his 17 starts overall. Wood has faced only one American League lineup this season and he struggled badly, giving up six runs to Oakland. And that was in a NL park. 

Andrew Heaney pitches for the Halos tonight and he's admittedly been very good at home, winning his last six starts here while posting 0.88 ERA. As good as that sounds, Heaney has been a little "off" of late. He has a 5.19 ERA and 1.558 WHIP his L3 starts overall, primarily due to a bad start in Boston. But he also has seven walks his L2 starts. He has a 6.10 ERA in two career starts vs. the Dodgers, losing both. With the road team favored, there's a good chance we'll play a full nine innings here, which is good, as is the O/U line itself 8* Over Dodgers/Angels

10* Seattle (4:10 ET): I've made my lack of affinity for these Mariners well-known this season, citing an unsustainable 26-11 record in one-run games (also 8-0 in extra innings!). That extremely good fortune (generally speaking, a team's record in one-run games should be close to .500) helps explain how this team has started 56-34 despite outscoring its opponents by just 15 runs this season, a differential that isn't all that different than the division mates (A's, Angels) chasing them even though those teams are 6.5 & 11 games back, respectively. Seattle's difference between actual and expected wins is the largest in all of baseball and in terms of overachieving, no one else is close. However, this series has not been kind to them w/ Colorado coming in and taking the first two games.

The Rockies are another team I feel isn't quite as good as its record. The difference may not be as pronounced as Seattle, but given they've been outscored by 25 runs this season, Colorado should feel lucky to currently have a winning record. They're on a five-game win streak entering Sunday. The fact that they've been able to come in here and win twice at Safeco Field surprises me because it's not like the Rockies' offense typically does much outside of Coors Field. It's obviously been the pitching that's carried them in wins of 7-1 and 5-1, plus this five-game win streak has seen them allow just five runs total. I don't see that continuing here though, even though scheduled starter Antonio Senzatela pitched well his first time out. On Tuesday, he threw seven scoreless innings of three-hit ball against the Giants. However, last year (his rookie season) saw him not fare well against the Mariners as he gave up four runs in five innings. That was here in Safeco. 

Both of Seattle's runs in this series have come by solo home runs. Meanwhile, Colorado has taken full advantage of having the designated hitter in their lineup, getting six RBI's from the #9 hitter. This while the top of the order has gone a combined 0 for 14. The Mariners' rotation has obviously overachieved massively so far this season and one of the biggest contributors has been today's starter, Wade LeBlanc, who is unbeaten in 12 starts (4-0) w/ all four wins (9-3 TSR) coming here at home. Last time out, he held the Angels to just one run here as the team has now won all seven times he's started at Safeco Field. He has a 1.80 ERA and 0.90 WHIP here, so there's really nothing phony about that record. Colorado is just 11-20 in day games, while Seattle is 9-2 as a home fave in the -125 to -175 price range. 10* Seattle

8* Pittsburgh (1:35 ET): Well. We're down to one last shot here. Despite the fact the line was not posted until late in the A.M. (Philly pitching change), I'm unwavering in my belief that the Bucs are due to break through here against the Phillies. It certainly appeared they were set to do so yday as they entered the seventh inning w/ a 2-0 lead. But that is when the "wheels came off" and Philly ended up taking the lead (for good), 3-2. The Pirates are now 0-6 head to head w/ the Phils this season and there's no denying the two clubs have been trending in opposite directions. But I don't see the home team getting swept here. 

Philadelphia has won six in a row and is tied w/ Atlanta (actually percentage points ahead) for first place in the NL East. But this team has hardly been dominant as its run differential for the year is just +23 and that includes a 17-6 win in the opener of this series. That run diff actually ranks seventh among all NL teams. Yesterday was their 19th one-run win of the season (against only seven losses) and they've also been fortunate enough to go 6-1 in extra innings. All three runs scored yday came w/ two outs in the inning. They'll start Drew Anderson today, calling him from Triple-A for his 1st big league start ever. He did make two relief appearances LY at this level and while he can claim to have struck out Mike Trout, he also allowed seven runs in just 2 1/3 IP. That works out to a hideous 23.14 ERA. 

Pittsburgh will go w/ a rookie Nick Kingham, whose last start was certainly one to forget. Kingham allowed three home runs and when all was said and done gave up seven runs in just three innings as the team went onto lose 17-1 to the Dodgers. Incredibly, the Pirates have now been outscored 24-1 in Kingham's L3 starts. But he has pitched well in three starts at PNC Park this year, posting a 2.89 ERA and 0.911 WHIP. The Pirates have dropped five in a row overall, but I will point out that Philadelphia still has a losing road record this year. 8* Pittsburgh

8* NY Yankees (1:07 ET): The Yanks evened this series up at a game apiece by beating the Blue Jays yday, 8-5. Now they go for the series win and that's important to note due to the fact they've won 19 of the previous 23 series w/ two of the non-successful ones coming against Washington. While they've "slipped" to two games back of the rival Red Sox in the AL East, New York has still gone 48-20 its L68 games overall, a win streak which ironically began w/ a pair of wins over Toronto. Now yday's victory was not w/o casualities as Aaron Hicks left in the fifth inning w/ a leg cramp and more concerning was closer Aroldis Chapman exiting due to the recurring knee issue he's been battling. However, if there's one bullpen in baseball that can overcome such an injury (it's day to day), it's this one and Chapman's absence shouldn't matter if the Yankees have another big lead by the ninth. 

The Yankees are now 8-4 vs. Toronto this season, including 5-3 here North of the Border. It's already their most successful season at Rogers Center since '09. Today, they send out Domingo German, who will be making his 11th start of the season. While his ERA isn't great, German has typically done a fine job at limiting runs and also has a 1.237 WHIP. He also has a 36-5 KW ratio his L5 starts. This Yankees' pitching staff has done a remarkable job on the road this season, limiting opposing hitters to a .218 average and just 3.7 runs per game. This being a day game is nice too as the Yankees are now 20-7 in such affairs this season.

Toronto will send out Ryan Borucki to be a starter for just the third time this season. His first two have been OK, but he did have more walks than strikeouts in the first one and the team has lost both games. This is a tough spot for Borucki facing the team w/ the best record in baseball (22-7) against southpaws. The Yankees are averaging an amazing 5.1 rpg against LH starters. They are also top five overall in runs scored, OBP and slugging. The Blue Jays have pretty much been the definition of mediocrity this season and I just don't see them getting the job done here. 8* NY Yankees

6* Arizona (10:10 ET): Admittedly, I've been somewhat of a "jinx" for the D'backs recently as three times in their last five games I've taken them, only to come up empty every time (they won the other two games). Last night could have been a turning point, however, as they took care of the lowly Padres 3-1 and should roll the rest of this series. The fact that there are multiple teams clearly worse than San Diego this year is surprising as I figured they'd challenge for baseball's worst record, coming into the season. However, make no mistake about it, they're still quite bad and a pop-gun offense w/ a struggling starter is not the recipe to beat the first place team in your division. Go w/ the D'backs here. 

Arizona is just 2-6 on its current 10-game homestand, a record which obviously must improve if they are to stay in front of the surging Dodgers. Meanwhile, San Diego has dropped 14 of its last 18 games. Admittedly, the Padres' best hitter (Wil Myers) sat out yday, but it's not like the offense has been exceptional (or even good) w/ him in the lineup this year. They're 27th or lower in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging. Thus, they are an ideal matchup for Arizona starter Robbie Ray to get back on track after a rough outing his last time out. Ray was hit hard, giving up six runs in just five innings vs. St. Louis Monday, but note that his start before that one was exceptional. It was his return from a two-month stint on the DL and he held Miami scoreless for six innings, giving up just two hits. Just like the Marlins, the Padres are an anemic last place team.

San Diego's Tyson Ross gave up three home runs and seven runs total in his last start, which was a 7-5 loss to the Pirates. He'd made three consecutive quality starts, all on the road ironically enough, prior to that. The team has gone 11-6 in Ross' 17 starts this season, but that includes a 6-0 mark when he doesn't factor into the decision. So he's been bailed out quite a bit so far. But against this Arizona bullpen, I can't see that being the case here tonight. The D'backs' pen has the top ERA in all of baseball (2.54), which obviously bodes well for them moving forward. For the season, this team allows only 3.8 runs per game. 6* Arizona

10* Pittsburgh (4:05 ET): Thanks to the late innings, the Pirates ended up being humiliated last night by the Phillies, losing the series opener by a score of 17-5. It was their fifth straight loss to the Phils this season, going back to a four-game sweep they suffered in Philly back in April. But I believe they'll get their revenge tonight behind Jameson Taillon. Last night aside, the Phillies typically are NOT the same team on the road where they've gone only 18-21 for the season. While they've now won five straight as well as seven of the last eight, they came into this series batting a collective .219 over the last week. Starter Jake Arrieta got off to a good start in 2018, but it was a bit of a mirage as his number of strikeouts remains low. I'm big on the Bucs today.

I'm a little bit skeptical of the Phillies right now. Yes, they now lead the NL East w/ a 48-37 record. But they more than doubled their season run differential yday from +10 to +22. Run differential says this is only a "45-win team" as they've been - by far - luckier than the Braves and Nationals, who are their competition in the division. Not only are the Phillies 18-7 in one-run games; they're also 6-1 in extra innings. Obviously, there was nothing "lucky" about yday's result as it was a seven-run seventh that blew things open in what was the longest nine-inning game EVER in National League history! But I wouldn't go looking for a repeat performance any time soon. Arrieta is also 0-4 w/ a 6.16 ERA in his L6 starts and has as 1.542 WHIP for the year away from home. The team is 2-5 in his seven road starts thus far. 

While the Phillies have been trending in one direction, the Pirates have been going the opposite way lately. They've now lost four straight and last night marked the second time they've given up 17 runs during that stretch. They were humiliated out in LA to start the week, but I still believe a return home is going to do them some good. They're not as bad they've played recently, just like the Phils aren't as good as they've looked. Taillon has revenge here for an April 19th loss to Arrieta where he was completely outclassed. But that was in the City of Brotherly Love. Taillon hasn't given up more than three runs in seven straight starts. His overall numbers aren't that different from Arrieta and I believe we're in line to see a much different result than what we saw yday. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Inexplicably, the Cubs have now dropped five straight to the Reds. This goes back to a four-game sweep they suffered late last month at Great American Ballpark. I had figured yday at Wrigley was a most opportune time to back them, but instead they forgot to bring the offense, managing only two runs in a series opening loss. That said, the notion that the Reds are going to sweep them again seems illogical given much of the info we discussed yday. The Cubs still own - by far - the National League's best run differential (at +103). They've scored the most while giving up the second fewest. They came into this series on a six-game win streak, averaging 9.6 runs per game, so yday's poor performance at the plate was a little surprising. Cincinnati has played better than .500 ball (36-34) for interim skipper Jim Riggleman, even winning 14 of their last 18 games. But today will NOT be their day. 

"Matt Harvey Day" does not mean what it used to, but the Mets' refugee has actually pitched quite well of late for the Reds. He's 3-0 w/ a 1.47 ERA and 0.818 WHIP his L3 starts overall. Last time out, he tossed 5 2/3 scoreless innings of two-hit ball against Milwaukee. But just like the Cubs' offense went from a peak to valley real quick yday, we should start to see regression from Harvey very soon. For the season, he's still sporting a 4.42 ERA and that number balloons on the road to 5.49 (not to mention a 1.415 WHIP). Yesterday also marked the first time in nine games the  Cubs did NOT score at least five runs. I fully anticipate them finding more success against Harvey than they did yday vs. Tyler Mahle. 

Tyler Chatwood gets the baseball here for the Cubs and while he's battled control issues all year long (leads MLB w/ 66 walks), we've seen him pitch well. Not his last time out, mind you. He allowed seven runs in five innings to Minnesota, a game which ended up being a wild 14-9 win for the Cubs. But ironically, Chatwood allowed just one run in five innings his previous time out and the Cubs didn't win that one. I realize that the Cubs had to come from behind in all six games during their now-defunct win streak. But armed w/ revenge, they are still the play here as they can't go on losing to a clearly inferior opponent. They remain 26-15 at home this season as well as 26-16 in day games. 8* Chi Cubs 

10* Croatia (2:00 ET): Enough is enough! With all due respect to our tournament hosts, it seems almost inconceivable that Russia is still playing in the quarterfinals. Let's be honest, they got a good draw in Group A w/ matches against Saudi Arabia and Egypt. I thought they were a bit exposed in a 3-0 loss to Uruguay in the finale of the group stage, but then came the real stunner. On penalty kicks, Russia eliminated Spain in the Round of 16. Maybe it turns out that sacking your coach right before the World Cup (this is what Spain did) isn't that bright of an idea. I believe its critical to remember that Russia was the lowest rated side in the entire tournament coming in (#70 according to FIFA). After their own close call vs. Denmark (also needed PK's), I'm going big on Croatia here.

The Russians scored eight times in their first two matches against what I again will refer to as a pair of favorable matchups, those coming against Saudi Arabia and Egypt. But since then, they've found the back of the net just twice. I thought they were completely outclassed by Uruguay (outshot 17-3!) and then La Roja outshot them 25-6 in the Round of 16. Both games saw them finish w/ below 50% possession (only 26% vs. Spain). Only two shots (in both games combined!) required saves! It really stunning that Russia is still playing and I believe the homefield advantage can only carry them so far. This is the third straight match where they enter as - clearly - the less talented side.

It certainly didn't take Croatia long to score against Denmark as they found the back of the net in the 4th minute. Only problem was, by that point, they'd already conceded a goal (came in the 1st minute!). Incredibly, there was no scoring for the rest of the 90 minutes + OT and they had to wait for penalty kicks to advance. Though I did have Croatia there and was disappointed in the overall effort, it should be noted that Denmark came in ranked a respectable 13th according to FIFA (that's higher than Croatia). It's obviously far higher than Russia as have been every other side Croatia has faced so far in this tournament. (Remember they crushed Argentina, 3-0). Prior to allowing that goal in the 1st minute to Denmark, Croatia had conceded only once the entire tournament (they were unbeaten in the group stage). This is a team w/ one of the most talented midfields in the entire draw and they are simply far superior to their quarterfinal opponents. They had 22 shots on goal vs. Denmark. 10* Croatia

8* England (10:00 AM ET): Fresh off vanquishing their checkered history w/ penalty kicks, the Three Lions should be set to roll in this Quarterfinal matchup w/ upstart Sweden. It's starting to look like "the year" for the English in this World Cup as they got into the more favorable half of the bracket by LOSING to Belgium in the final match of the Group Stage. Make no mistake about it, the established narrative (which we rarely buy into) here is that English teams of the past would have absolutely lost in the scenario we saw unfold vs. Colombia in the Round of 16. In control most of the way, they conceded late in regulation (added time), but were able to pull the win out anyway (even after initially trailing during the PK's). After that escape, I think they're ready to continue moving forward.

Sweden has admittedly looked good in this World Cup. They've kept three clean sheets in four matches and the only loss was a heartbreaker to Germany where they conceded in the final seconds. That was one of just two goals allowed the entire tournament. Their 3-0 demolition of Mexico at the end of the Group State was quite impressive. Then, they held Switzerland w/o a goal in the Round of 16, winning 1-0. 

England came into the draw ranked 12th by FIFA while Sweden was 24th. Note that this has the potential to be a low-scoring game. We talked about Sweden having kept three clean sheets to this point. But while England has conceded in every match, it's been just one goal every time. Of the 15 combined goals from these two sides, nine have come from either penalties or set pieces. Then there were three more that seems fortunate, either by fluke or the opponent. I simply believe England to be the more talented of the two sides, however, as they should move onto the semis to face either Russia or Croatia. 8* England

10* Over Ottawa/Montreal (7:30 ET): Montreal is the consensus worst team in the CFL this season, but don't tell that to Saskatchewan, whom the Als upset LW (as 11-pt underdogs), 23-17. (Ironically, the Rough Riders pulled an upset of their own last night!). That result was a far cry from the first two of the season for the Als, who scored 10 pts each in losses to B.C. and Winnipeg. Against the latter, they gave up 56, so it certainly wouldn't be illogical to expect some defensive regression tonight at home vs. the REDBLACKS. Ottawa has played only two games in 2018 and the results have been quite different w/ the first being a 40-17 beatdown of Saskatchewan (at home) while the second was a 24-14 loss at Calgary. I like the Over here as I think the REDBLACKS are poised to score a lot tonight while the Als are going to have to play catch up.

Four turnovers were huge for Montreal in last week's upset. So was the connection between QB Drew Willy and WR Chris Williams, but unfortunately Willy isJ likely out for this game. But I don't think that's as big of a loss as you might think considering the first two games of the season. Backup Jeff Matthews has been getting all the first team reps in practice this week and should be the starter Friday night. Note the Montreal offense had 13 two and outs LW, the most by any team in five seasons. So a switch from Willy might actually be an improvement. This defense has a lot of new faces, thus you have games like what you saw against Winnipeg two weeks ago. 

CFL games are averaging just over 50.0 PPG this season, so this O/U line is just a tad bit on the low side. Ottawa ran into a stout defense LW in Calgary, but should find things a lot easier this week. Remember, they scored 40 in the season opener. Last season, they swept the Als (were just 5-10 SU otherwise!), holding them to just 34 pts total. All three games went Under as well. I just have a "feeling" that we're in store for a higher scoring game tonight. 10* Over Ottawa/Montreal

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): Every year, it seems as if there's one good pitcher beseiged by bad luck. For 2018, that pitcher appears to be the Mets' Jacob deGrom. He has a 1.84 ERA and 1.016 WHIP in 17 starts, but only a 6-11 team start record. On the surface, that seems preposterous. Dig not very deep and it's easy to see how this has happened. deGrom gets virtually no run support as the Mets' offense has supplied him w/ no more than three runs in 10 of his last 11 starts. That's brutal especially considering he himself has not allowed more than 3 ER in any of those 11 starts, going at least six innings in each of the last nine! His TSR in those L11 starts is 2-9! I have to believe that better times are ahead for deGrom and I'll jump on him here in what I feel is a good spot.

deGrom's last start was pushed back a day, but that was just delaying the inevitable as the Mets lost 5-2 to the Marlins. While deGrom was responsible for three of those Marlins' runs, it's not like the Mets gave him a ton of help. This insipid offense has been a huge reason for the overall tailspin that's hit Queens and seen the team drop 22 of its last 29 games. They are bottom four in both runs scored and batting average. However, this is a good matchup for deGrom w/ the Rays losing the DH from the batting order. Nevermind the TSR, deGrom has a 1.90 ERA and 0.942 WHIP here at Citi Field. Even though they've been winning more than losing of late, the Rays have only averaged 3.1 runs per the L7 games. They are 26th overall in runs scored this year, just one spot above NY, not to mention 26th in slugging as well. The Rays were shutout in their last game, by the way, at the hands of the lowly Marlins.

We also need to devote some time and space to the Rays' pitching situation. Back in late May, with a rotation lacking top end talent and hit hard by injuries, a decision was made to start using "openers" (NOT starters!) as in a relief pitcher who would start the game, but only expected to go through the order maybe just one time and the bullpen would take it from there. It has worked better than anyone could have imagined. Since May 19, the Rays have the lowest ERA in all of baseball. Tonight's "opener," Ryne Stanek, has been the most effective of the bunch w/ a 1.42 ERA in the role, though he's never gone longer than 1 2/3 innings. But he's also worked in a traditional relief role of late as well, so you have to wonder if that will have an effect. In what promises to be a pretty low-scoring affair, I'll side with the "traditional" starter here as deGrom simply "deserves" better. 8* NY Mets

10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Here's another game on the Friday MLB slate where the home team is playing w/ revenge. In this instance, the Pirates were swept by the Phillies back in April. It was a four-game sweep, in Philadelphia, and was probably the "low point" of a 23-16 start to the season for the Bucs. Since then, things have gone south in a hurry as the club has dropped 30 of its last 47 games. They were just swept out in LA (Dodgers) to start this week, including an embarrassing 17-1 loss on Monday. But now they're back home, which - for this series - is as important as simply NOT being on the road. You see, the Phillies are 30-16 in the City of Brotherly Love this season, but only 17-21 away from home. Despite being 10 games over .500, they've only outscored opponents by 10 runs. I'm on the revenge-minded home team here.

While the Pirates are at a low-water mark for the year (six games below .500), the Phillies are a season-best 10 games above .500. The latter has won four in a row and just swept a quickie two-game set from lowly Baltimore. To me, this seems like a classic case of "buy low, sell high," especially w/ Philadelphia just 6-6 this season off three or more consecutive wins. This will be the first time playing away from home for the Phils since late last month (at Washington) as five of their last six series have taken place at home. On the road, offensive numbers dip down to 4.1 runs per game w/ a .230 team batting average. It doesn't help that starter Nick Pivetta has a 5.81 ERA and 1.548 WHIP in seven road starts this year or that he's struggled of late either. 

Pivetta's last three starts have seen him post a 7.07 ERA and 1.714 WHIP. That has everything to do w/ his last one, as he allowed seven runs in just 1 2/3 innings of what ended up being a 17-7 loss to the Nats. It's the team's only loss in the last seven games. Pivetta was tagged for three home runs and has allowed at least one HR in five straight starts. He also came on in relief Sunday for a 13-inning affair w/ the Nats, so that could have an adverse effect here. As for Pittsburgh's Trevor Williams, he's got a "sneaky good" 0.792 WHIP his L3 starts. If anything, he's been unlucky thanks to a combination of little run support and despite allowing just 10 hits (in 17 2/3 IP), he's given up seven runs. Note that the lineup Williams will be facing tonight is batting only .219 the L7 games, despite going 6-1 during that stretch. The laws of regression are due to take hold in this one. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Believe it or not, but the last time these NL Central rivals squared off, the end result was a four-game sweep ... by the Reds! Obviously, I expect a bit of different scenario to play out this weekend in Wrigley, starting this afternoon when the home team should exact a little bit of revenge for the aforementioned events of last month. The Reds have been shockingly good over the last month, winning 13 of their last 17 games overall. But here come the Cubs, who enter this series as winners of six straight (trailed in all six!), the last five all coming here at the Friendly Confines. They already had the NL's best run differential before the win streak began and now have outscored their opponents this year by 104 runs. I'm on the Cubs Friday afternoon. 

Neither team played yesterday. Both also just got done playing an Interleague series, the Cubs' last five wins have come at the expense of Minnesota and Detroit while Cincinnati just took two of three from Detroit. The Cubs have averaged a preposterous 9.6 rpg during the win streak and have now tallied the most runs in the National League. They've scored five or more runs in eight straight games. They've also allowed the second fewest (two more than Brewers), so a pretty good case could be made that this is the best team the Senior Circuit has to offer. They'll start Mike Montgomery here. He has a 2.43 ERA in seven starts and is unbeaten (3-0) at home this year. The Cubs are not only 26-14 at Wrigley this season, but also 26-15 in day games. 

The Reds have won or tied each of the last five series and scored 5+ runs 14 times during their 13-4 stretch. They scored at least six in all four games vs. the Cubs last month. They've got to be feeling pretty good about themselves heading into this afternoon's contest, knowing that they have Tyler Mahle on the hill as he's gone 3-0 w/ a 2.18 ERA his L6 starts. Mahle turned in a season-best 12 K's his last time out (when I took him) against Detroit. But as good as Mahle and the Reds have looked lately, I still view the Cubs as the vastly superior team here. Playing w/ revenge, I'm on 'em. 8* Chi Cubs