8* DePaul (8:30 ET): While it's an arguable point whether or not LSU belongs in the Top 25 right now, I think it's inarguable that Marquette is NOT the 12th best team in the country. Yet, that's exactly where the Golden Eagles find themselves this week, based on the strength of a 16-3 SU record and five-game win streak. Personally, I don't even consider Marquette a Top 25 team, so there's an argument to be had that they are the most overrated team in the country right now. Don't sleep on DePaul here as the Blue Demons just upset Seton Hall over the weekend. I'm taking the points in this Big East matchup. 

DePaul is 11-8 SU and coming off its second upset of Seton Hall this season. The Blue Demons won 97-93, on the road, Saturday as 7-pt pups. It was an impressive all-around performance shooting the basketball for the contingent from Chicago as they made 52.5% of their field goal attempts, including 6 of 11 from three-point range, and went 29 of 32 from the free throw line. Making the Blue Demons a force to be reckoned with is the fact that was the third outright upset they've pulled in the last four games. In addition to getting Seton Hall twice, they also went to St. John's and won. Consider that Marquette lost by 20 at St. John's, though you do have to factor in that the Johnnies were w/o their leading scorer when they faced DePaul. 

Marquette is 13-0 SU at home this season, putting them in a pretty exclusive class of 19 teams that are currently 10-0 SU or better on campus. Only Houston (14-0 SU) has a better home record. Certainly, that has to be a little bit intimidating for a DePaul team that is just 2-17 SU its L19 visits here. But this is an underdog that can score (77.6 PPG) and they have four different players averaging double figures. Note that Marquette's last three games have not been easy. Two were wins by four pts or less (Seton Hall, G'town) and then on Sunday, they had to come back and erase an eight-point halftime deficit (here at home) vs. Providence. 8* DePaul

8* Cleveland (7:35 ET): The Cavs have been unspeakably bad for some time now as their lone win of 2019 came against the LeBron-less Lakers. They own the worst record/point differential in the league at 9-39 SU while being outscored by more than 10 points per game. They're dealing w/ injuries and the truth of the matter is that this season is going just about as poorly as the first time LeBron left them high and dry (2010). That all being said, this is simply too many points for Boston - or any other team, for that matter - to lay in a regular season contest. Take the points. 

The Celtics have had their own set of issues this season. Granted, it's not even comparable to what's going on in Cleveland, but w/ just the 5th best record in the East right now, they're clearly underachieving. I would not be surprised to see them move up the standings over the course of the second half of the season, but winning by a margin larger than what the oddsmakers are calling for here could prove problematic. Even as the Celtics have won four in a row coming into tonight, none of the victories have been by double digits. They're a pretty strong home team (won 9 straight here), but even so, they're "only" outscoring visitors by an average of 10.4 PPG, a far cry from tonight's pointspread. 

Short-handed as they might be, the Cavs will desperately want to atone for Monday's putrid performance at home vs. Chicago where they lost by 18.  They'll also want revenge for a 33-point loss here in Boston earlier in the year. Believe it or not, but the Cavs do own two outright wins this year as a road underdog of at least 12.5 points. Boston has a home game vs. Golden State (Saturday night) to look forward to. Too much has to go right to cover a pointspread as large as this one. 8* Cleveland 

8* Georgia (7:00 ET): LSU has cracked the top 25, but I'm not entirely sure they belong there. Sure, they own a 14-3 SU record and have won seven in a row since a failed attempt at ending Houston's unbeaten run (which has since come to an end). But the Bayou Bengals haven't exactly taken on the toughest competition the SEC has to offer. Even an 87-69 win Saturday over a South Carolina team that had previously not dropped a conference game wasn't all THAT impressive when you consider the Tigers were 9-pt favorites here in Baton Rouge. I think LSU is ripe for a letdown.

Georgia has taken on the best the SEC has to offer and it really hasn't gone too well for them. They are 1-4 SU in SEC play, but those losses were to Tennessee (new #1 team in the country), Kentucky (hot as anybody right now), Auburn (who I still consider a top 15 team) and Florida. In my own personal power rankings, I have all of those teams rated higher than LSU. Now UGA lost all four of those games by double digits. But they should come in very motivated tonight and with some confidence, knowing that they are a perfect 3-0 (straight up) vs. LSU the past two seasons. 

LSU HC Will Wade noted his team didn't handle being ranked in the polls very well earlier this year. "Human nature is to relax; human nature is to give in a little bit," he said. That's what happened after LSU started the year 5-0 SU and found itself ranked #19 in the country. They then lost their next two games, to Florida State and Oklahoma State. While the Tigers are on a 17-game home win streak (10-0 TY), the last team to beat them here in Baton Rouge was UGA, 61-60 last season. The Bulldogs played better than the final score (62-52) showed vs. Florida on Saturday as they shot almost 58% from the field (but 38% in the 2H), only to turn it over 20 times, which led to 28 pts for the Gators. Despite all that, the Dawgs were still up by five in the 2H. Take the points tonight. 8* Georgia

8* Edmonton (9:05 ET): If you don't defend home ice, then there's a strong likelihood you're not going to move up the standings. That's the dilemma facing the Oilers right now as Connor McDavid and company have dropped B2B games as well as 8 out of their L10 games at Rogers Place. I just played against them here, Sunday, as they lost 7-4 to Carolina. As noted in the analysis, that was a terrible spot for Edmonton as they were coming off a loss the night prior to rival Calgary in the Battle of Alberta. Somehow, despite the struggles at home, the Oilers have been able to stay in the playoff race. But they desperately need to win this final game before the All-Star Break. 

It'll be a far more favorable matchup tonight for Edmonton as they welcome in one of the worst teams in the league. Detroit has just four wins in its previous 19 games and is at the end of a three-game trip through Western Canada. The schedule makers did them no favors by having them go from Calgary to Vancouver and back to Edmonton. The Red Wings lost both games, 6-4 at Calgary and 3-2 at Vancouver, to fall to 8-13-3 on the road and into last place in the Atlantic Division. There's just not much this club does well right now, and they already lost to the Oilers (at home) back in November. 

The power play could prove to the difference maker in this one as Edmonton is 9th in the league w/ the man advantage, converting at a 21.5% rate. Detroit's PP has been brutal of late, including an 0 for 3 showing in Vancouver. You have to think the Oilers are due to start winning some home games. They enter the day just three points back of the Wild Card in the Western Conference, so getting two points here is a must. Detroit's playoff chances are all but dead at this point as they're facing a 15-point deficit in the standings and clearly looking to rebuild. 8* Edmonton

10* Wichita State (8:00 ET): What a difference a year makes. Last year, right around this time, Wichita State hosted USF and was a 29-point favorite at Koch Arena. They wound up covering that lofty spread in a 95-60 blowout win. Now, a year later, they are getting points from the Bulls in Tampa. While we know it's been a down year for the Shockers, this is a bad line in my opinion. Wichita State is coming off a tough run of games, losing to the top two teams in the American (Houston, Cincinnati) plus an OT defeat at the hands of Temple. Their one win in the last four games came as a short dog, at home though, against UCF last Wednesday. I'm taking the points here. 

South Florida is 12-6 SU overall, but only 2-4 SU in conference play. They are a definite "drop in class" in terms of opponent for Wichita State, who just played the four top teams in the American all in a row. With five losses in its last six games (including one out of conference to VCU), the Shockers will be a desperate team tonight. Then again, four of USF's six losses have come in the last five games. They too had a tough time against the top teams from the American as they've just lost three in a row to Temple, Cincy and Houston. Only one team can get on track here though and I think it's going to be Wichita State.

South Florida shot very poorly Saturday against Houston, leading to a seven-game home win streak coming to an end. As for Wichita State's loss to Cincinnati, that was a close game (five points) before HC Gregg Marshall and freshman Erik Stevenson were both whistled for technical fouls for complaining about the officiating. Given that the Bearcats attempted 35 free throws to the Shockers' seven, maybe they had a right to complain. I thought USF was a bit lucky defensively against Houston as the Cougars didn't shoot the ball particularly well either. That came after the Bulls allowed B2B 82-point games to their two previous opponents. I'm on Wichita State here. 10* Wichita State 

10* Over Kings/Raptors (7:05 ET): Sacramento is a team that I remain highly skeptical of, moving forward. The fact that they are over .500 has to be considered a major shocker at this point as coming into the year, it was expected to be them and Phoenix at the bottom of the Western Conference. But although the Kings are 24-23 SU on the year, they do happen to own the West's third worst overall point differential, a sign that regression could be forthcoming. Last night was certainly a step in the WRONG direction as they were blown out in Brooklyn, 123-94.

Things certainly don't get any easier for the Kings tonight as they must head north of the border to play Toronto. The Raptors are battling the Bucks for the top spot in the Eastern Conference right now w/ the two teams tied for first (Milwaukee technically percentage points ahead). Toronto has been a dominant team on its home floor, going 20-4 straight up while averaging 115.4 PPG. This team has been doing plenty of scoring lately, although some of that is tied to a 140-138 win over Washington that went to double overtime. They are top 7 in offensive efficiency, for the year, however. They'll also be getting Kawhi Leonard back (missed L2 games) tonight.

I've been through this before, but the fact Sacramento gives up so many points will ultimately be their undoing. They are bottom five in the league in PPG allowed (115.2) and that number gets even worse on the road. Last night, they allowed 123 points to a Nets team that is nowhere near what Toronto is offensively. However, it was still the eighth straight Kings game that stayed Under the total as they shot just 41.9% from the field. They should improve on that number tonight and while the number is high, I expect this game to go Over the total. (The total was even higher when these teams met in Sacramento earlier in the season). The Kings are 23-12 Over as underdogs this season, including 13-4 when on the road. Such a streak of Unders is a bit perplexing when you consider how bad Sacramento is defensively. 10* Over Kings/Raptors

8* Eastern Michigan (7:00 ET): Maybe I should have called this as an "oddsmakers trap" as opposed to an "error." Because I think most would be surprised to see a team w/ an unbeaten conference record (Bowling Green) getting points from a team w/ a losing record (like 8-10 Eastern Michigan). But the bottom line is that BG is a pretty fraudulent group, despite being 5-0 SU in MAC play. Granted, I tried fading them over the weekend and that certainly didn't work out as the Falcons blew out Western Michigan. But that game was also at home where they're now 10-0 SU on the year. The road has been a different story and tonight's game in Ypsilanti will be their 1st conference loss of the year.

Eastern Michigan can claim a similar home vs. road dichotomy. They're a solid 7-3 SU at home this year, but just 1-7 on the road. They just lost at Buffalo over the weekend by 12, but covered the spread. As you probably know, the Bulls are the MAC's other unbeaten, but certainly far stronger than Bowling Green. Though they've lost twice to Buffalo this month, Eastern Michigan should hold its head high knowing they were 2-0 ATS vs. the #14 team in the country. The MAC slate will only get much easier from here and it should be noted that four of the Eagles' 10 losses this year have come against teams currently ranked in the top 15. Two others were to Power 5 schools. 

Bowling Green has lost five of the seven "true" road games it has played this year. They might be a perfect 5-0 ATS in January and 8-0 ATS since December 8th, but Eastern Michigan happens to be riding its own 4-game ATS win streak. The Falcons have played an incredibly easy schedule to this point and might already be looking ahead to a showdown (at home) vs. Buffalo that takes place next week. I am simply not a believer in this team and Eastern Michigan isn't going to shoot only 28% from the field in this game like Western Michigan did vs. BG on Saturday. Lay the short number. 8* Eastern Michigan 

10* Western Kentucky (9:00 ET): This line should tell you all you need to know about the current C-USA standings. Marshall is the only team in the league w/o a loss, but the Thundering Herd come in as underdogs to Western Kentucky tonight in a rematch of a game played less than 10 days ago. Obviously, Marshall was victorious the first time around, but only by 1 point (70-69) and they had to rally back from a 15-point deficit. WKU is the better team here and should get its revenge tonight in Bowling Green. Lay the points. 

Western Kentucky knows it let one slip away in Huntington and thus should come out highly motivated this evening. The disappointment from losing to Marshall the first time seemed to carry over into the Hilltoppers' next game, also a one-point loss, where they were 10-pt favorites over Florida International. Then again, that was a game WKU led by as many as 16 - at home. That not only made it B2B 1-pt losses, but three straight by three points or less. Finally, the Hilltoppers were able to get back into the win column on Saturday, defeating FAU 72-66 in their own come from behind effort. WKU is better than its 9-9 record as its last six losses have all been by six points or less.

Marshall has had just the opposite luck in close games. That 70-69 win over Western Kentucky was their third straight win by three points or less at the time and second straight by exactly one point. In their last road game, they were only able to defeat Charlotte (last place team in C-USA) 85-84. The Herd are also off a week where they played both FAU and FIU (just in the reverse order). They gave up plenty of points in both games, including 97 to FIU on Saturday. That marked the SIXTH time this season that they've allowed 90 pts in a game! Marshall has just been awful defensively on the road, giving up 88.0 PPG for the year and they rank an atrocious 221st in the country in defensive efficiency. I rate them only as the 4th best team in C-USA w/ WKU as one of the three that are better. 10* Western Kentucky

8* Houston (8:05 ET): I think the better team is getting points in this one. James Harden has been on an all-time great run in terms of scoring, leading the Rockets to a 15-5 SU record in their last 20 games. Harden has scored 40 or more points in 10 of the last 13 games, including 48 in a wild come from behind victory out in Los Angeles Saturday night. Facing the LeBron-less Lakers, Houston trailed by as many as 21 before coming back to win the game in OT, 138-134. While falling into such a deep hole against a bad team doesn't exactly inspire confidence, this is a rare spot where the Rockets are getting points and I'll take advantage as Philadelphia remains overrated from where I sit.

The Sixers are coming off a loss Saturday afternoon to Oklahoma City. I played against them in that spot too, noting they were laying points to a better team. It ended up being just their 5th home loss of the year as Paul George saved the day for the Thunder w/ a four-point play in the final seconds. While that game ended up being close, note OKC led virtually the entire way and by as many as 16 in the first quarter. That terrible start ultimately doomed them. While the Sixers aren't likely to fall into such a deep early hole again tonight, the same can be said for the Rockets as it pertains to their previous effort. 

With a red-hot Harden, I expect the Rockets to shoot a lot better tonight than they have in the last two games. Houston has actually played two straight overtime games as they lost to Brooklyn last Wednesday, 145-142 despite 58 from Harden. I don't think the B2B OT games will be much of a factor here as the Rockets have only played twice in the last five days. I mentioned earlier that its rare to find them as underdogs. The only time they've been a dog of more than two points in the last month was at Golden State (were +9) and they won that game outright. I just don't think Philly should be favored by this many against what I still view as a superior team, even at home. Take the points. 8* Houston

10* Under Kings/Blues (4:05 ET): This is a "juiced up" total, similar to the last time I played the Kings Under, which was Thursday, and that ended up being a 2-1 final (in their favor). Saturday's game didn't go nearly as well w/ LA losing 7-1 at Colorado. They played a historically bad period, giving up six goals in the second to the Avalanche and obviously had no chance after that. In my analysis from Thursday, I made mention that the Kings are just putrid offensively on the road. Well, they're not much better at home and that's why they are dead last in the league in goals per game. This afternoon, they'll face another low-scoring team and I think another Under is in the cards. 

St. Louis is coming off a 3-2 win over Ottawa Saturday night. It was a much needed win after suffering B2B losses. Save for a 5-2 setback in Boston Thursday night, there hasn't been a whole lot of scoring in recent Blues' games as that game in Beantown is the ONLY one of their last eight to see more than five combined goals scored. The Under is 7-1 in that stretch. The road has seen the Blues go 14-5-1 to the Under and while the Kings may be the league's lowest scoring road team, the Blues aren't far off, ranking 27th w/ just 2.35 goals per game. 

The respective offenses are what is keeping these teams at or near the basement in their respective divisions. St. Louis isn't going to do what Colorado did to the Kings on Saturday, thus this should more closely resemble a "normal" Kings game. The Kings are 9-3 Under their last 12 games and have scored more than two goals just once in the last six. In 7 of 10 games in January, the Blues have allowed two goals or fewer. In terms of shooting percentage, both of these clubs rank right near the very bottom of the league. When they met back in November, the result was a 2-0 shutout in favor of LA. Goals will again be hard to come by tonight. 10* Under Kings/Blues

8* Under Mavs/Bucks (2:00 ET): Although Golden State has been making a strong case recently, I still consider Milwaukee to have been the best team in the league over the 1st half of the season. They now lead the Eastern Conference w/ a 33-13 SU record and have outscored their opponents by 10.0 PPG. That's a remarkable point differential over a 46-game stretch considering the next best team (Golden St) is +6.5 PPG. I'm sure the Bucks will score plenty this afternoon, but will their opponent? I look for this game to stay Under the total.

Dallas isn't exactly one of the top offensive teams in the league. On the road, they've played very poorly this season, going just 4-19 SU. A three-game losing streak is a killer in the current Western Conference climate and in this instance, it's dropped the Mavs to third from the bottom in the Western Conference. I do not see this team making any kind of serious run to the playoffs, but they do have at least one thing going for them and that's rookie Luka Doncic. Of course, Doncic's emergence has led to Dennis Smith Jr going AWOL, which isn't exactly what you want. In the Mavs last two games, they've scored "just" 200 points. 

In the Mavs previous 12 games, the Under has gone 9-2-1. On offense, they haven't been shooting the ball well for awhile now. They've been at or below 43% from the field in seven of the past eight games. The Under is also 7-0 off their previous seven losses. On Saturday, they lost 111-99 to Indiana. The Mavs have also gone Under in their last six non-conference games. Milwaukee has seen the Under cash in five of their last seven games. They aren't likely going to shoot the ball as well in this game as they did in their last one (55.3%) vs. Orlando. 8* Under Mavs/Bucks 

10* Cleveland (1:00 ET): I honestly thought the Cavs might be favored here.  There's certainly an argument that they should. While it's true Cleveland is the worst team in the league right now, Chicago isn't much better. In fact, I'd consider the Bulls to be the second worst team w/ a power rating that's just a "touch" better. The Cavs are dealing w/ some injuries right now and just finished up a tough road trip w/ B2B blowout losses at the hands of Utah and Denver. But Chicago isn't fully healthy right now either and the Cavs likely remember suffering a 20-point loss here on their home floor right before X-Mas. They'll get their revenge here. Take the points. 

Since beating the Cavs here on 12.23, the Bulls have dropped 10 straight and 11 of 12 overall. Tuesday's loss to the Lakers proved more costly than usual as Wendell Carter Jr tore ligaments in his thumb and is probably done for the season. Since losing Carter, the Bulls have lost by 30 to Denver and 14 to to Miami. Both of those opponents shot better than 52% from the field. The Bulls shot 39.3% in their last game as they continue to rank dead last in the league in offensive efficiency. It should be pointed out that Chicago was a slight dog the last time they came calling to Cleveland. The underdog is an incredible 22-5 ATS the past 27 meetings between these teams. 

The Cavs have also cashed six of their last eight games vs. teams w/ a winning percentage of .400 or below. These teams have similar YTD records and point differentials w/ Chicago only slightly better. There's not many games you'd "expect" Cleveland to win anymore, but this is one for me. They're off a tough West Coast swing, have revenge and I just can't see them losing for a third straight time to the Bulls this season, including a second straight at home. These teams rate fairly evenly in my book, so I absolutely think the home team deserves more respect. 10* Cleveland

8* Carolina (9:35 ET): At first, you might be a bit surprised to see the Hurricanes favored in Edmonton, but don't be. Despite suffering B2B embarrassing losses (to the Rangers & Ottawa), Carolina does have some key metrics in their favor. Eventually, this team is going to start scoring. They have to, considering they lead the league in shots per game and shot per game differential. Poor goaltending has hurt them, but it's mostly been strong goaltending by the opposition that has hurt them the most. While their own save percentage is slightly below .900 for the year, opponents have posted a .925 save percentage against the Canes this season. That's substantial. The good news here is that Edmonton's YTD save percentage is no better than that of Carolina.

What the Oilers do have, at least recently, is a ridiculous .859 shot percentage over the L5 games. Despite an average of just 25.6 shots on goal during that time, they have averaged 3.6 goals per game, basically the opposite of what we're seeing w/ Carolina, who has a lot of shots that aren't being converted into the requisite number of goals. For Edmonton, that unusual percentage is mostly due to a 7-2 win over Buffalo last Monday. They were actually outshot in that game 43-25. But that caught up w/ them last night as their luck ran out here at home vs. Calgary (lost 5-2).

Losing the "Battle of Alberta" should have a carryover-type effect for the Oilers tonight. It's always disappointing to drop a game to your rival, especially when you're outclassed as badly as Edmonton was. Having to come back and play the next night is tough. Carolina had won 7 of 8 prior to losing its last two games. Coach Rod Brind'Amour has promised line changes for this game and I believe that will chance the Canes' fate. Look for them to get the two points Sunday night. 8* Carolina 

10* LA Clippers (7:05 ET): The Clippers are reeling right now (lost 5 in a row), which I can't say is any kind of terrible surprise seeing as their hot start to the season was viewed as a surprise by many (including me). They've fallen to a precarious 8th place in a Western Conference where there's little margin for error and the team right behind them, the cross-town Lakers, will be getting LeBron back soon. Losing both Lou Williams and Danilo Gallinari hurts - figuratively AND literally - but the result of those injuries and the recent slide is that the Clips are getting A LOT of points tonight in San Antonio, far more than they should. Take the points in this one. 

The Spurs' season is trending in the opposite direction of the Clippers. Trading away Kawhi Leonard was supposed to signal a downturn in the Alamo, but as long as Greg Popovich is still coaching in San Antonio, this team is probably going to be good. They started 2018-19 slow and were particularly pourous on the defensive end. But they've certainly turned things around over the last month or so by going 16-6 SU their last 22 games. But even w/ such a run, they're still only two games up on the Clippers. Coming off B2B road wins (over Dallas & Minnesota), I think they're a little bit overvalued in this spot. 

Playing Golden State is always tough, but the Clippers did themselves no favors Friday by shooting only 36.5% from the field. I had the Under in that contest (won easily), so I was happy. But the Clippers are far better than how they've looked in this 0-5 SU/ATS stretch while I feel the Spurs are due to start "giving some back" after a 17-5 ATS run. This is just too many points for a Clippers team that should come out desperate here. San Antonio has actually been outscored over its last five games, despite going 3-2 SU. Two of the three wins have been by four points or less while the other was a double overtime game. 10* LA Clippers

10* Kansas City (6:40 ET): At long last, the Chiefs are finally back in an AFC Championship Game. It's their first appearance in one since 1993. Though the winner of this annual game gets the Lamar Hunt Trophy, named for the franchise's founder and long-time owner, this will be the first time EVER that Arrowhead Stadium has actually hosted an AFC Championship! The Chiefs had gone just 1-10 SU in playoff games since that '93 AFC Champ Game appearance (lost to Buffalo) and were a heinous 4-16 SU, 3-17 ATS in the playoffs since winning Super Bowl IV. But that was before they exorcised a lot of demons last week w/ a completely dominant performance here at home vs. what was a red-hot Colts team. I said last week that "this year would be different (for KC)" and I still feel that way now.

Compared to the Chiefs, the Patriots' playoff resume is obviously a lot more impressive. They've won 10 straight division (AFC East) titles and five Super Bowls. This will be their 8th straight AFC Championship Game appearance, which is incredible when you think about it, and they're going for an 11th all-time Super Bowl appearance (their 10 prev appearances is the NFL record). They've gone 4-3 SU the L7 years in the AFC Champ Game, winning it each of the last two years. No team has won the AFC three straight years since the Bills of the mid-90's. The only other team to do it was the Dolphins in the early 70's. 

So enough w/ the history lesson, let's get down to the game. These teams did meet in the regular season w/ New England prevailing in a wild 43-40 game. But that was in Foxboro where the Patriots went undefeated this year (only team in the league to go unbeaten at home). Last week in Foxboro, everything that could go right for the Pats did as they routed the Chargers 41-28 (wasn't even that close). But this game is in Arrowhead and that presents a problem for Brady, Belichick and co. Kansas City's somewhat maligned defense is A LOT better at home, giving up just 17.4 PPG here. New England's offense, which averages 33.8 PPG at home, averages just 21.6 PPG on the road. That's a sizable dropoff, especially when having to compete w/ Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense, which averages 35.1 PPG. Kansas City, clearly, is the better offensive team in this matchup. New England has lost road games this year to Detroit, Tennessee, Jacksonville and Miami. I think homefield and revenge play a big factor here and Kansas City goes on to the Super Bowl. Lay the points! 10* Kansas City

10* Under Patriots/Chiefs (6:40 ET): Kansas City has some distinct advantages getting this game at home. First off, they don't have to play on Foxboro. New England won all nine of its home games this year and did so while averaging 33.8 PPG. On the road, the Pats' scoring average drops to 21.6 PPG. Three of their five non-division road games produced 10-point efforts (losses to Detroit, Tennessee and Pittsburgh). Kansas City's defense has been maligned much of this year, but they actually perform quite well at home where they give up only 17.4 PPG. With the dropoff in scoring New England sees on the road and the increase in defensive prowess from the Chiefs, the Under is an easy call for me this week. Plus, Kansas City actually averages fewer points per game at home than on the road! (Update: it also looks like they're getting Eric Berry this week!).

Last week of course, the Over in the Patriots' game was my *10* Total of the Year. But that was in Foxboro. Everything that could go right for them in the first half did. They took advantage of a terrible Chargers' defensive gameplan and scored 35 points by halftime. The majority of points they gave up came in "garbage time" w/ the result of the game in little to no doubt. The Chargers gained more than two-thirds of their total yardage in the final quarter and a half when the Patriots were already ahead 38-7. Though often labeled as a "bend but don't break" type outfit (even by me!), we probably should give Belichick's defense more credit. There are multiple instances of games like last week's artificially inflating the number of yards they allow. This unit finished tied for 6th in the league in scoring during the regular season, giving up just 20.3 PPG. 

Kansas City's defense was able to wrest some of the headlines away from its record-setting offense w/ a truly dominant performance last week against the Colts. Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis offense had been on a real roll going into that game, but the Chiefs limited them to basically nothing in the first half. The Colts' lone TD came w/ just over five minutes remaining in the game (scored on a blocked punt in 1st half). They went three-and-out on three of the first four possessions and had just 12 total yds at the end of the first quarter. I should conclude by talking about the weather for this game as it is expected to be downright frigid. Sometimes that's "much ado about nothing," but this O/U line is high. Given the final score of the regular season meeting between the two (43-40 Pats), that's understandable, but I expect a much different results at Arrowhead where games average "only" 49.6 PPG. 10* Under Patriots/Chiefs

10* Illinois (1:00 ET): I've had some pretty good success betting Big 10 games this year. Just yesterday, I was on Wisconsin, who handed Michigan its first loss of the year. I also won w/ Penn State plus the points over Minnesota. Another Big 10 matchup I cashed earlier in the week was Illinois over Minnesota. The Illini, a slight dog on their home floor, won "going away" by 27 points. It was a much needed result in what has been quite the unlucky season in Champaign-Urbana. Sunday finds the Illini getting more points against an Iowa team that I feel is "ripe for the pickin'." Take the points here. 

The Big 10 is very interesting this year. You could have as many as 10 teams making the NCAA Tournament. Michigan and Michigan State are the clear heavyweights. I happen to think that three of the more underrated teams in the country - Nebraska, Purdue and Wisconsin - hail from this league. I also think there's some overrated teams like Minnesota and Iowa. Illinois now has a chance to beat both overrated squads. They scored 51 pts in the 1st half against Minnesota on Wednesday and led for all but 28 seconds of that game. They ended up shooting 56.1% from the field.

Illinois had ample time to prepare for Minnesota (were off last weekend), but remember what I said in my analysis. They have played better than their record, even taking Michigan to the limit. They have three losses by exactly two points. As for Iowa, they've had quite the opposite kind of luck. They've pulled off three upsets in the last four games. They may or may not be getting leading scorer Tyler Cook back here. Cook sat out the win vs. Penn State earlier in the week as he's been hobbled by an ankle injury. But the Hawkeyes are 0 for their last 7 ATS in home games when the total is 155 to 159.5. That includes an 0-4 record this year. 10* Illinois

8* Washington (12:35 ET): Two teams that are on losing streaks meet in this Sunday afternoon game on NBC. Of the two, I'm predisposed to think the Capitals are the more likely to turn things around. They are the reigning Stanley Cup Champs and have been at or near the top of the Metro all season. This four-game losing streak of theirs is a season-worst. As for their opponent, Chicago has lost five in row in what continues to be a miserable season. The current losing streak is the third of its length this season for the Blackhawks, who have the worst goal differential (-38) in the entire league. 

The top four in the Metro are separated by just two points. Currently, Washington is third. Their most recent defeat came at the hands of one of the two teams ahead of them, the first place Islanders. The way the Caps lost that game was rather emblematic of their recent struggles. They were shutout, losing 2-0, making it just four goals in four games for them. That was a spot where you would have thought the Caps would have played a little better. They were at home and the Islanders were in the second night of a back to back.

Clearly, four goals in four games is not going to get it done. Fortunately for Washington, however, Chicago is 30th in the league (2nd worst in goals allowed). In addition to having the worst goal differential in the league, the Blackhawks also have the fewest number of wins and points. So a pretty clear cut case can be made that they are the worst team in the league right now. It also helps Washington that Braden Holtby is back between the pipes. The team had surrendered 11 goals in the two games that he missed. In his return Friday night, he looked good, stopping 23 of 25 shots. 8* Washington

10* Minnesota (9:05 ET): Columbus was exposed a bit in last night's 4-1 loss to Montreal. I was on the Canadiens there and cited that while the Blue Jackets did enter the day in first place in the Metro, they actually had the division's fourth best goal differential. They'd been hot going into Friday (won 4 straight), but for the second straight night I think they make an excellent fade. While Minnesota is floundering a bit recently, and off an embarrassing loss to Anaheim, they are a team I expect to eventually ascend to third place in the Central. This is a good price on them on home ice. 

The Wild really were embarrassed Thursday night here at the XCel Center. They were shutout, 3-0, by an Anaheim team that had previously lost 12 in a row. All three goals were scored in the first period, so the game was basically "over before it started" and the Wild's 37-23 edge in shots was pretty much "null and void." However, I still see a team that has plenty going for it, such as the league's second ranked penalty kill. They have revenge here for a 4-2 loss in Columbus back in November. One thing that will be definitely be different from that last meeting is a new forward, Victor Rask, who is set to make his debut w/ the team tonight after getting traded from Carolina earlier this week. 

With this being the second night of a back to back, the Blue Jackets will likely be forced to turn to Sergei Bobrovsky in goal. In past year's that would be anything but a problem. However, in 2019 there appears to be a disconnect between "Bob" and the team as he recently was disciplined for hitting the showers (rather than the bench) after getting yanked after another subpar performance. Bobrovsky has posted a woeful .837 save percentage his L4 outings. With C-bus ranking 27th on the power play, they're going to have to be reliant on even strength scoring and that certainly did not come easy last night. The Blue Jackets are already just 3-5 playing w/o rest this season. 10* Minnesota 

8* Penn State (8:30 ET):  I smell upset here. Isn't a little curious that a Penn State team that is 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in Big 10 play is only a short road dog here to a Minnesota team that is 13-4 SU overall on the season? Of course, anyone who joined me for my ANTI-PUBLIC BURIAL against the Golden Gophers on Wednesday knows that this team is pretty much a fraud. The Gophers lost by 27 at Illinois, a team that also was without a Big 10 win at the time. Take the points here! 

Penn State hasn't necessarily been bad this year, they've just been unlucky. Case in point, an 89-82 loss to Iowa on Wednesday where they were actually favored by 3.5 points. Iowa is a ranked team and the Nittany Lions held a five-point lead at the break. But it was not be as they ended the game w/ some extremely cold shooting. Up eight w/ just over 11 minutes to go in the game, they would go onto miss 16 of their next 21 shots and 10 in a row from three-point range. Also disappointing was the fact they didn't defend as well as they normally do. None of their previous five opponents had scored more than 71 points before Iowa (a good offensive team) went for 89. Despite this, the Nittany Lions still rank top 30 in the country in defensive efficiency. 

In my writeup for that Minnesota-Illinois game, I said the line was just as curious as it looks to be here and this is due to the oddsmakers being all too aware how fraudulent the Gophers truly are. I talked about this quite a bit in the analysis for the Illinois game, but would like to add that this is a poor shooting team, from both two and three-point range as they sit outside the top 200 in percentage. They've been helped by a strong offensive rebounding rate, but that will probably go down here in Big 10 play. The Gophers really do not have a quality win. 8* Penn State

10* Detroit (7:05 ET): The Pistons won last night here at home, beating Miami by a score of 98-93. They were 2.5-pt favorites and it was their 4th straight cover, a stretch which has also seen them go 3-1 SU as they try and remain relevant in the Eastern Conference playoff discussion. They're currently a game back of Charlotte (who hosts Phoenix today) for the 8th and final spot. Last night's win did not come w/o some attrition as Andre Drummond had to make an early exit after getting hit in the face. But despite them blowing all of a 16-pt lead, I was impressed w/ how they came back and won. Despite being in the second game of a back to back, I like them tonight. 

Sacramento's last game only further confirmed my general skepticism towards them. They were blown out in Charlotte, 114-95, which for me was a ~SIGNATURE~ *10* ULTIMATE POWER release (on the Hornets). The Kings, like the Pistons, are hovering right under the "cut line" for the playoffs. But they have a negative point differential, indicating their winning SU record is at least a little fraudulent. Their defense is bottom five in the league (in terms of points per game allowed) and while they've been able to go 9-2 ATS as a favorite this season, I wouldn't be surprised if this line "flips" before tipoff.

Playing without rest and possibly some key players hardly sounds ideal, but I expect the Pistons to "step up" here. Drummond is officially listed as questionable, though HC Dwane Casey has said he's "hopeful" he can play. Backup PG Ish Smith also left last night's game early and is listed as "day to day." This one simply boils down to the fact that I do not believe in Sacramento moving forward. Note this is a revenge game for the Pistons, who lost out in California nine days ago. But they played that game w/o Blake Griffin. We know Griffin will play here and he's been on fire of late, averaging 29.3 points on 51.4% shooting his L10 games. Look for the home team to roll. 10* Detroit 

Start time for this game has been moved up due to weather. Play is still valid!

10* Western Michigan (2:30 ET): Bowling Green is the only MAC team besides Buffalo w/o a conference loss, but to consider those two squads as anything close to equals would be downright laughable. Buffalo is a legit top 20 team in the country right now. I wouldn't even consider BG to be among the top 200. While the Falcons' Saturday opponent, Western Michigan, isn't exactly lighting the world on fire, I do like the Broncos plus the points here. Bowling Green is not accustomed to being this large of a favorite and will struggle here to win by any kind of margin. 

Bowling Green does enter this game on a seven-game ATS win streak. But the Falcons have been a slight underdog in three of their four MAC games, including here at home Tuesday where they escaped w/ a 79-78 victory over Ball State. They won that game despite shooting just 33.9% from the field. But they made 8 of the 20 three-pointers they took and were 29 of 33 from the FT line. Give credit to the Falcons for being 9-0 SU at home. They're averaging a lot of points here while visitors are shooting just 38.4% from the field. But I just don't see this good fortune continuing.

Western Michigan has dropped its last four games as well as seven of its last eight. As of now, they and Miami are the only teams in the MAC w/o a conference win. But the Broncos are coming off a couple of "game efforts" at home over the last week against Toledo and Buffalo. They actually gave Buffalo its toughest test in MAC play thus far - by far - as they led by 11 pts in the first half. Obviously, they weren't able to hold on, but they easily covered as 14-point home dogs. The L3 games have seen WMU score 73, 77 and 79 points. If they can get to that threshold today, then they'll have no problem covering this generous pointspread. 10* Western Michigan 

8* Duke (6:00 ET): This is a rare battle of teams each ranked #1 in different polls. Duke is the AP's top choice while Virginia is #1 according to the Coaches. This is just the 4th time this has happened in CBB history where teams ranked #1 in the two polls are meeting. Don't let the fact that Duke is w/o PG Tre Jones lure you into thinking the luster of this matchup is gone. I agree with the AP that the Blue Devils are the top team in the country, despite what happened to them earlier this week. Virginia is one of two remaining unbeaten teams in the country, but I believe they will go DOWN on Saturday. Lay the points. 

It's certainly a bit odd to consider Duke an "anti-public" bet. But coming off a loss and w/o Jones, they are here. Facing an unbeaten team is also a contributing factor. But the Blue Devils have the depth to overcome the loss of Jones and will obviously be highly motivated coming off the 95-91 loss to Syracuse on Monday. That game saw them lose Jones to a separated shoulder just six minutes in and they were already w/o Cam Reddish. But Reddish is set to return here. Zion Williamson just set a Duke freshman record w/ 35 pts in that Syracuse game. The Blue Devils have outscored teams by more than 30 PPG here at Cameron Indoor Stadium. 

Virginia, as per usual, is the near the top of the country in defensive efficiency. They are giving up just 51.7 PPG and enter this game at 13-3 ATS. But two things to keep in mind here. One, it's hard to shake the memory of what happened to the Cavaliers in LY's NCAA Tournament. How will they handle this step up game? Two, I'm sure Duke remembers losing to Virginia LY here at home. This year's team is better w/ Williamson and R.J. Barrett and I don't see them going down in Durham two years in a row to the Hoos. This line should be higher. The fact that it's not is an overreaction to what happened Monday (Jones injury, Duke losing). 8* Duke

8* Oklahoma City (3:30 ET): Both of these teams are coming off results that are not indicative of where they're truly "at" and the better team is getting points. Oklahoma City suffered an upset at the hands of the LeBron-less Lakers Thursday night, which was actually the second straight head-scratching result for them. Earlier in the week, they lost at Atlanta. So that's two games in a row where the Thunder have lost outright as a double digit favorite. You just don't see that very often and I think they'll bounce back in this early start time Saturday afternoon. Take the points. 

Philadelphia just destroyed Indiana Thursday night, 120-96. That win was not free from criticism, however, as the team's decision to play an injured Joel Embiid received plenty of criticism from all the usual talking heads. Despite clearly being bothered by a bad back, Embiid had 22 points and 13 rebounds vs. the Pacers, which is right in line w/ his season averages. But I wonder if playing Thursday has an adverse effect on him here. Despite a 19-4 SU home record, I'm a little skeptical of the Sixers, who are just 4-9 ATS off a double digit win and lagging behind some of the other top teams in the East in key metrics such as point differential and net efficiency. 

For much of this year, Oklahoma City has led the league in defensive efficiency. Not in the last two games, however. The Hawks and Lakers torched them for a combined 280 pts, which is a stunning number. That Lakers game did go to overtime and they also recently lost to the Spurs 154-147 in double overtime. This team is better than its record, IMO, and has gone 6-2 ATS as an underdog this season. They should start to turn things around here as I see defensive improvement on its way against a Philly side who is "due" to dropoff at the offensive end anyway. 8* Oklahoma City 

8* Wisconsin (12:00 ET): There are only two unbeaten teams left in the country (Virginia, Michigan) and both face stern road tests on Saturday. Michigan, ranked #2 (AP) and #4 (Coaches) in the polls must visit Madison for this early tip and as of press time, I believe this line is trending in the WRONG directions. Don't let Wisconsin's six losses fool you; the Badgers will be the Wolverines most worthy adversary yet. Michigan has played only a handful of "true" road games so far (three to be exact) and this one happens to come at a team that is not only top 15 in the country in defensive efficiency (per KenPom), but also top 20 in my own personal power ratings. 

Michigan is 17-0 overall and has started Big 10 play 4-0 ATS. But they've gotten dealt a "pretty easy hand" so far in conference play, drawing three of the league's four teams that likely won't be making the NCAA Tournament. You have to tip your cap to the job done by HC John Beilein here in Ann Arbor as once again he has his team overachieving. Last year's national runner-up came into the year barely even considered a top 20 team in the country. This 17-0 record is Michigan's best start EVER, but I believe a few losses are coming. They got career-highs from TWO players in last Saturday's 80-60 win over Northwestern. That won't be happening again on the road. 

Wisconsin enters this game off B2B losses, both by just four points. They've also dropped four of five, all by seven points or less. So it's not just facing a top 5 and unbeaten opponent in their gym that should have the Badgers motivated here. They desperately need a win as well. As I mentioned earlier, despite these recent results, I still have Wisconsin as a top 20 team nationally. It is not often you find them as an underdog at the Kohl Center. (Hasn't happened until now this season). Even last year when they had a down year, the Badgers were only a home dog three times. I'm taking the points here and obviously don't be surprised if it's an outright upset. 8* Wisconsin

10* Under Warriors/Clippers (10:35 ET): So, I guess we now have to get used to NBA totals in the 240's? It's become almost a nightly occurrence to see a 230+ pt total on the card, but thanks to Golden State (who else?) the bar is getting raised. In their last two games, the Warriors have scored an astronomical 289 pts by themselves (!) and their last game was a 147-140 final, which flew past a 241-pt total that tied for the highest O/U line in any game this season. For the record, there have only been nine games in NBA history (prior to tonight) w/ totals of 240 pts or higher. Four of them (and now a 5th) have taken place this season. Not surprisingly, the Warriors have been involved in 2 of the 4. Both of those games went Over. This one won't. Take the Under.

Golden State has gone Over in four straight games, scoring 140 or more in three of those. That's just ridiculous. They and New Orleans just set a record w/ 43 made three-pointers, breaking the "old" mark of 41, which was just set earlier this month when the Warriors beat the Kings. Steph Curry has made 28 three-pointers himself the L3 games, tying his own record, and has made at least eight in all three games. No player before him had ever made 8+ three-pointers in three straight games. I have to think that this ridiculous amount of scoring we're seeing from Curry and the Warriors is "due" to subside, at least a bit, no? 

There are two things that should disrupt the Warriors' recent rash of Overs. One is that DeMarcus Cousins is set to make his debut tonight. As good a player as "Boogie" is, he could very well disrupt the offensive flow. Two is that the Clippers are struggling right now. They've lost four in a row. The Under is also 6-2 in their L8 games. I realize that recent history says the Over is the way to go in this Pacific Division matchup (9 straight Overs!), but this O/U line is simply too high. 10* Under Warriors/Clippers 

8* Memphis (7:05 ET): It's a been a bit of a dicey period for the Celtics the last couple weeks with players calling each other out. There's been plenty of hand-wringing over "why this team isn't better," but the bottom line is that while the Celtics' record may not be what "it should be," they've still outscored the opposition this year by a healthy 6.1 PPG and that's the third best margin in the league right now (trailing only Milwaukee and Golden State). They are coming off a most impressive win Wednesday night over Toronto (117-108 as 3-pt home chalk), led by Kyrie Irving's 27 points and career-high 18 assists.

Whatever "ails" Boston right now is "small potatoes" to what is going on w/ Memphis. The Grizzlies have won just one time in the New Year (at San Antonio though) and are just 3-14 SU dating back to December 14th. They are 2-15 ATS during that same stretch. Fortunately for tonight, they are getting double digits. As long as the Grizzlies can maintain their defensive prowess (1st in the league in PPG allowed!), then I say they're a great value at this current price. Remember that Boston had lost three straight games, all as favorites, before beating Toronto two nights ago. 

These teams did play right before the New Year, in Memphis, with the Celtics winning 112-103 as 3.5-point chalk. Boston made 16 three-pointers in that game to Memphis' seven and that was the difference. However, the Grizzlies are 17-4 ATS all-time here in Beantown. This figures to be a pretty low-scoring game, which makes the underdog all the more attractive. The Celtics were very much on the verge of losing a 4th straight game when they were down four to Toronto w/ less than five minutes to go. My read is they'll likely win here, but not cover. Take the points. 8* Memphis

6* Puck Line Montreal (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a play on the puck line only where I am taking the Canadiens +1.5. This is a matchup where both teams come in hot. The last time the Habs played on the road, they beat Boston by a score of 3-2. They've now won three straight after beating Florida 5-1 on Tuesday. This win streak has them in 4th in the Atlantic Division and, if the regular season ended today, they'd be the final Wild Card. Given how well they have looked recently, I think taking them w/ an additional goal and a half is warranted here. 

Not to be outdone, the Blue Jackets have won four in a row and now actually lead the Metro. But the three teams that are close behind them are all better in my eyes. The last two games have seen C-bus roll over two bad teams (Devils, Rangers) here at Nationwide Arena. But we should tip our collective caps to them for also beating Nashville and Washington during this current run. Still, the club only ranks 20th in goals allowed and thus it's a little hard for me to see them winning this one by multiple goals, if they even win at all. 

Montreal hasn't just won three straight, they are also 9-4 SU the L13 games (Columbus is 11-3 SU its last 14). But the Canadiens have the superior goaltending in this matchup, no matter who they turn to. Carey Price has been outstanding all year long, but his backup Antti Niemi has really come on of late as well, including a 52-save effort against the Panthers Tuesday. In what will likely end up being a pretty low-scoring game, I think the +1.5 is going to be very valuable. 6* Puck Line Montreal (+1.5)

10* Ohio (7:00 ET): Led by a very good Buffalo team, the MAC is a surprisingly decent league this year. Granted, everyone else is playing for 2nd place (behind UB), but there's some quality squads here. One team that I think is a bit underrated at the moment is the contingent from Athens, Ohio. OU is just 1-3 SU in conference play thus far and has suffered a couple of losses when they were favored (Northern Illinois, Kent State) at home. But they also went on the road last week and posted a very nice 70-52 win at Ball State (as 10-pt underdogs). Not sure the Bobcats will win outright again tonight, but I love them plus the points in this spot. 

The one thing that caught my eye w/ this Ohio team is that they have a very high defensive efficiency rating. They're 45th in the  country (per KenPom) in that regard, which is second in the conference, right behind Buffalo. Offensively, things can get a bit dicey, but that is what the pointspread is there for. With a defense that can keep the opposition in check, the Bobcats become a very attractive play as underdogs. It was an absolutely dreadful shooting night that cost them earlier this week vs. Kent State. OU finished that game at just 31.7% from the field, including 4 of 20 from three-point range. Even on the road, you have to figure those numbers will go up tonight.

Toledo is a good team, but remember they started MAC play at 0-2 before rolling in their last two games. Back to back wins as favorites have the Rockets a little overvalued coming into this one, similar to when they hosted Ball State in the conference opener and lost 79-64. That was followed w/ a 30-point loss to Buffalo (gave up 110 points!), but getting Western Michigan and Miami OH B2B has got UT back on track. Still, those are two of the weaker teams in the MAC. The Rockets might be the better offensive team in this matchup, but they've still posted two double digit losses in games against teams I consider in the upper half of the MAC (Buffalo obviously included). This is a big revenge game for Ohio as well considering they were swept by the Rockets LY and are just 3-11 ATS the L14 meetings. Take the points. 10* Ohio

8* Ohio State (6:30 ET): The Big 10 is beyond loaded this year w/ possibly 10 teams NCAA Tournament bound (Illinois, Penn St, Rutgers, N'western are the exceptions). So, more often than not, a conference game is going to carry a lot of meaning. Take this one for example, which is crucial to Ohio State. The Buckeyes have lost three in a row, the last two coming on the road. That has them 10th in the standings. But they're back in Columbus Friday where they'll host a Maryland team whose 6-1 conference record trails only Michigan and Michigan State. I think it's time for the Terps to drop a game as I do NOT view them as better than "the rest of the pack" in the Big 10.

Ohio State's losing streak began w/ a loss here in Columbus to Michigan State. At the time, the Buckeyes were ranked #14 in the country and they looked to be sitting pretty w/ a seven-point halftime lead. But they let Sparty score 50 pts in the final 20 minutes of that game and still have yet to recover. A shocking upset loss at the hands of Rutgers soon followed, then came a loss at Iowa last weekend where they again fell apart in the 2nd half. The good news for this game is the schedule lines up in OSU's favor. They have not played since Saturday while Maryland had a tough game vs. Wisconsin on Monday. Tonight is the Terps' third game in the last eight days.

Maryland won that game over Wisconsin, 64-60 in College Park. It was their sixth straight win, however, three of those have been by three points or less. Again, I view this team as being more in line w/ the "rest of the pack" and not Michigan & Michigan State. So it makes sense that they would drop a game sooner rather than later. The Terps may be 4-0 ATS on the road, but Ohio State is 8-2 SU at home and the better defensive team, in my opinion. Last year, the Buckeyes destroyed the Terps 91-68 here in Columbus. It might not be that lopsided this time around, but OSU will win again. Lay the short number. 8* Ohio State 

8* Hawaii (10:00 ET): The "curious" case of Cal State Northridge continued last Saturday as the Matadors got me again w/ a 78-74 road win over Cal Poly. It was the second time in a week that this team, who I have ranked outside my top 300, proved me wrong. Last Wednesday, they won 84-83 at Cal Riverside. Have I simply underestimated this team? I don't think so. Two wins by a combined five points, even on the road, is not enough to lead to any kind of critical reassessment. They're back at home tonight, but I like Hawaii to hand them a dose of their own medicine.

Hawaii is 10-5 SU and been off for more than a week as they prepare to hit the mainland for the first time in 2019. In fact, this will be the Warriors first road game since playing at UCLA on November 28th and that is their ONLY "true" road game so far this season! They just completed a 6-1 SU homestand on the island w/ a 79-68 win over Cal State Fullerton as three-point favorites. That result ran their mark to a perfect 4-0 ATS when favored this year, so monitor that line. But no matter where the line ends up, make no mistake that Hawaii is still a strong play tonight against an opponent that is just bad on the defensive end. 

These teams split their pair of games last season and my goodness was it a tail of two shooting performances from Cal State Northridge. At home, they lost 65-46 as they shot a woeful 27.5% from the field. But out in Honolulu, they turned the tables w/ a 65.1% shooting night. But I say that no matter how well (or poorly) they shoot tonight, their poor defense will have them "behind the 8-ball." The Matadors still are giving up 83.0 points per game. Hawaii, meanwhile, does an excellent job at guarding the three-point line. Opponents are barely even shooting 30% from there this season. 8* Hawaii 

8* Under Kings/Stars (8:35 ET): Similar to the NBA, the NHL has seen somewhat of a "scoring renaissance" this season, but don't expect the trend to play out in this game. The Kings have been simply putrid on the offensive end, ranking dead last in the league in goals per game w/ only 2.26. As bad as that number is, things get even more dire on the road where they average LESS than two goals per game (1.86). To put that number in perspective, the next worst team is at 2.13 and that happens to be tonight's opponent, Dallas. I'm on the Under all the way in this one. 

The Stars used to be known for their high-scoring games. Then again, the Kings used to be good.  For Dallas, the trend changed last season when they made a jump from 29th (out of only 30 teams at the time) in goals allowed to a respectable 6th. This year, they've been surprisingly even more stingy as they rank 4th in the league in goals allowed at 2.64. For the reasons stated above, they should have little difficulty in stopping the Kings from scoring here. The Under is 27-15-5 in all Stars' games this season, including 5-0-1 the last six. They have not scored more than three goals themselves in any of those six contests (just 8 goals total!).

That brings us to the Dallas' decline offensively as they come into this game ranked 29th in the league, which is third fewest in the league. So this is the exact opposite of the Toronto-Tampa Bay game that we're also playing accordingly. It's two of the three LOWEST scoring teams in the league here w/ LA in the "Tampa Bay role" as a historically BAD offensive outfit and Dallas not too far behind. Remember when Stars' CEO Jim Lites ripped some of his team's star players? Well, the offense has actually DECLINED since then, to 2.2 goals per game and a woeful 6.7 shooting percentage. 8* Under Kings/Stars 

7* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Anaheim is in a massive freefall right now (lost 12 straight) and I've previously warned you that there's no end in sight. This is a team that was living dangerously in the early part of the season, winning an unusually high percentage of games in which they trailed most of the way. That's simply not a sustainable blueprint for success and sure enough the bottom has dropped out. Still, I don't think the end is near as we're now looking at a club w/ a bottom five goal differential in the league. Minnesota will have no sympathy for them tonight at the Xcel Center.

The Wild should be frustrated by the fact that - despite Anaheim losing 12 in a row - they have only two more points compared to the Ducks. Five teams have definitely separated themselves in the Western Conference this year (Winnipeg, Nashville, Calgary, San Jose and Vegas), but unlike Anaheim, Minnesota probably has a legit shot at finishing third in its division. That's a guaranteed playoff spot by doing so and winning tonight could in fact put them into third place in the Central, passing Dallas and Colorado (Dallas hosts LA though and is favored to win tonight). Bottom line is Minnesota NEEDS these two points tonight.

The same could be said for Anaheim, but two points has to seem like a pipedream at this point given how the team has played recently. They last won exactly one month ago and have been outscored 21-2 from the second period on during the 12-game losing streak. Things have only gone from bad to worse w/ Jakob Silfverberg, the team leader in goals, getting hurt in Tuesday's loss to the Red Wings. Ryan Kesler is also out. The Ducks already ranked second from the bottom in goals per game. Look for the Wild to perhaps win this game w/ special teams as they are top 10 in both penalty killing and the power play. 7* Minnesota 

10* Over Maple Leafs/Lightning (7:35 ET): What a game this should be as the top two teams in the Atlantic Division tangle Thursday night in Tampa Bay. I think we can all agree that the Lightning are the league's best team as that assertion is confirmed by virtually every available metric, simple or advanced. While there is a gap between them and Toronto (16 points in the standings!), I think the Leafs have as good a case as any to be called the second best team in the league. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair tonight and will be on the Over.

Tampa Bay is on a record-setting offensive pace as they come into this game averaging over 4.0 goals per game. At home, they average 4.4. They also have the league's best power play, converting at a 29.1% clip. They haven't been quite as prolific over the last week, scoring just three goals total in their last two games. They were surprisingly dominated by the Islanders on Sunday (lost 5-1), but then bounced back to shutout Dallas 2-0 on Tuesday. Note that both of those games took place on the road. I also think they were a bit fortunate to kill off all six chances the Stars had w/ the man advantage Tuesday. 

 When Toronto last came calling to North Florida, the Lightning prevailed 4-1. However, the Leafs did have 49 shots on goal. Toronto really needs to get its act together in a hurry as they've dropped five of seven following a 6-3 defeat at the hands of Colorado on Monday. They have won four in a row on the road however, and after their top three scorers have been held off the sheet for the last three games, you'd expect at least one to have a big game tonight. Toronto is not that far behind Tampa Bay in scoring as they rank 3rd in the league in goals per game w/ 3.58. With two of the top three teams in the league in scoring here, an Over play just seems logical. 10* Over Maple Leafs/Lightning

10* Middle Tennessee (7:30 ET): The Blue Raiders are having a somewhat disastrous season (3-14 SU record, 2-13 ATS), but they recently cashed for me in a decent showing at Southern Miss last week. The follow up to that was not good (I laid off) as they went to Louisiana Tech and fell 73-56. But now they're back at home for the first time in two weeks and desperate to end this ugly 13-game losing streak. In many ways, this play reminds me of last night's ANTI-PUBLIC BURIAL on Illinois, who was another short home dog that many were quick to write off. I'll take the points here. 

UTSA is 10-7 SU so far. They have won and covered all four times that they have been favored. They are also 4-0 SU/ATS in conference play, one of only two teams in Conference USA w/o a league loss. (MTSU is only C-USA team w/o a win). But I'm not sure there's anyone that considers the Roadrunners as the top team in C-USA; in fact I wouldn't even have them top five. Two of their four conference wins came at the expense of UTEP in a "unique" scheduling spot where those teams played B2B games against one another. The Roadrunners did just earn an impressive win over North Texas, but that was by only two points and at home. They won on a last-second shot.

Going back to the end of December, UTSA has won seven straight games. It is their longest win streak in a decade and their first 4-0 start in conference play in 30 years. Meanwhile, it's been a long time since MTSU had this kind of year as the toll from former HC Kermit Davis bolting for Ole Miss is clearly being felt. That all being said, I still look at this game as a matchup where one team is due to regress and the other set to improve. To make a stock analogy, it's time to "sell high" on UTSA while we should "buy low" on Middle Tennessee. Despite the disparate records, I would still make the Blue Raiders a slight favorite on their home floor! 10* Middle Tennessee

8* Indiana (7:05 ET): We're barely past the midway point of the NBA season, but I think it should be apparent to all that in the Eastern Conference, five teams have clearly separated themselves from the pack. Two of them meet tonight, on TNT, in Indiana w/ the Pacers hosting the Sixers. To me, of the five teams that have separated themselves, Philly is definitely the weakest out of the group. Whether you're looking at point differential or net efficiency, they come up last. So Indiana laying essentially a "token amount" (of points) for being at home seems like a good value play to me. 

With LeBron James taking his talents out West, we knew the Eastern Conference would be relatively "wide open" this year. Still, I have to admit that I didn't think the Pacers would be this strong of a team. They are now tied for 1st in the league in defensive efficiency (w/ Milwaukee and OKC). But lately it has been the offense that has been rolling. They are off a 131-97 win over Phoenix (here at home) where they never trailed and led by as many as 37. Yes, that was "only Phoenix," but the Pacers were impressive nonetheless. It was their second highest scoring game of the year. Since X-Mas, they have averaged almost 120 PPG. 

Given the offensive performance in their last game (and who it came against), I'd be more leery to lay points w/ Indiana in this spot if not for the fact Philly also happens to be off its highest scoring effort of the year. They put up 149 points Tuesday in a blowout of the T'wolves. But that was at home. The road has been far less kind to the Sixers this year as they are just 10-12 SU (19-4 SU at home). Meanwhile, Indiana is 15-5 SU at home and outscoring teams by almost 10 PPG. I think home court really matters this matchup and the Pacers are already the stronger team on paper. Philly is just 1-4 ATS this season after posting a 130+ pt effort. Lay the points. 8* Indiana 

10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Two teams hovering around the .500 mark meet Thursday night in the Queen City. I love the matchup from the Hornets' perspective. This is a team that has generally played better than its record, not just this season, but for the last several seasons. What has burned them is an atrocious 4-22 SU record in games decided by 3 pts or less the L3 seasons (3-8 TY). They're also 0-4 in overtime this season. Still though, they have managed to outscore their opposition and they enter this game off a very nice win in San Antonio (108-93 as 7-point dogs) Monday night. 

I've gone on the record as a skeptic of the Kings, who are surprisingly still above .500. It's been a long time since we could say that about them in January (Chris Webber days?), but the bottom line is they have the Western Conference's third worst point differential due to still being one of the worst defensive teams in the league (26th in PPG allowed). Somewhat shockingly, Sacramento has been the betting favorite in each of its L5 games! They went 4-1 SU & ATS in that stretch to improve to 10-1 SU/9-2 ATS as chalk on the season. They've really beaten up on the lesser foes on their schedule, going 15-4 SU vs. sub-.500 foes. 

Charlotte might technically be a sub-.500 team, but I have them rated as a better team than Sacramento and I think this is going to be a big game for Kemba Walker and the Hornets. It's their first game back home after a six-game Western Conference swing (went 2-4 SU) while the Kings are just starting their own six-game swing out East. The Kings actually got more points from their bench than the starters in Monday's 114-107 win against Portland. They won't be able to rely on such production on the road (where role players typically don't play as well) and that defense remains a valid concern. Charlotte is 14-8 SU at home this year, including 12-6 when favored. The pointspread is of little concern in this matchup, so I'm laying the points in what should be a Hornets victory. 10* Charlotte 

8* Illinois (9:00 ET): Many are going to look at this game and see a 13-3 team barely favored over 4-12 team. In terms of the ratio of tickets written on the two sides here, the result will be predictable. Minnesota figures to be (and is) a popular public choice, but I'm here to tell you not to fall for the trap. Illinois has been one of the unluckiest teams in the country thus far and is actually far better than its record suggests. The Illini have lost three games this year by exactly two points. Something else you should consider is Minnesota's 0-6 ATS record when facing an opponent that has a losing record. 

Illinois comes into this game on a five-game losing streak, which includes two of their three two-point losses. Their most recent defeat came at the hands of unbeaten Michigan, 79-69, right here in Champaign-Urbana. The Illini actually outshot the Wolverines, even holding them to just 5 of 19 from the three-point range. But that discrepancy was made up for at the FT line where Michigan went 18 of 22 while Illinois was just 4 of 7 (at home!). Something key (for me) in handicapping tonight's game is that Illinois has had a little extra time to prepare. That Michigan game was last Thursday. They were off over the weekend.

Minnesota won on Saturday, 88-70 over Rutgers. But that was a good spot for the Golden Gophers. Not only were they getting the Scarlet Knights in a clear letdown spot (Rutgers had just upset Ohio State for their biggest win in YEARS), but Rutgers was also missing its best player (Eugene Omoruyi) and it showed. Omoruyi got hurt in the upset of Ohio State, so it was the Scarlet Knights' first time playing w/o him (he's also their leading rebounder). Minnesota did go to Wisconsin and win earlier this month, but I do not consider them even one of the NINE best teams in the Big 10 right now. They are ripe for the "pickin" tonight. 8* Illinois 

10* Butler (8:30 ET): Butler is coming off B2B 1-pt losses, both on the road. The first was to Seton Hall, a game where the Bulldogs scored 50 pts in the 2nd half, yet still came up just short. The second was to Xavier as this time they succumbed to a second half rally (blew 10-pt lead). That Xavier loss was particularly frustrating in the sense that the Bulldogs not only shot the ball well, but also much better than their opponents. But Xavier got to the free throw line way more (double the attempts) and was +11 in scoring there, and that proved to be the difference in the ballgame.

While still on the road, tonight sets up as the easiest game of the the trip for Butler. That's confirmed by the fact they are slightly favored. A win here would give the Bulldogs some positive "momentum" (still hate that word) going into home games vs. St. John's and Big East leader Villanova over the next week. Depaul is a team they've beaten four times over the past two seasons, three of those victories coming by double digits. Maybe the gap isn't quite as large in 2019, but Butler still is the better team. Butler has lost four of five overall, but is still a top 40 team in the country in my eyes. 

Three days before Butler lost to Seton Hall by a point, Depaul picked up a one-point victory over the Pirates. That win saw some remarkable shooting from the Blue Demons and snapped a three-game losing streak. Then came a surprise win at St. John's over the weekend. However, it should be noted the Blue Demons benefited from playing St. John's w/o its leading scorer and assist man Shamorie Ponds. That was another game where FT differential mattered as Depaul went 17 of 28 from the charity stripe while St. John's (at home!) was just 4 of 6. Don't let recent results fool you; Butler is the better team here and justifiably favored. 10* Butler

10* Over Magic/Pistons (7:05 ET): Both of these teams got off to surprisingly good starts to the season. But, in each instance, that's rapidly faded. Orlando, even after big upsets over Boston and Houston in the last week, is five games below .500. Right behind them (by one-half game) is Detroit, who has lost 17 of its last 22 games. But in the watered down Eastern Conference, no one is really ever out of it (well, there are a few teams) and these two actually rank 9th and 10th in the Conference respectively. I anticipate this being a higher scoring game than anticipated. Take the Over.

The Magic beating the Celtics and Rockets on B2B nights is not something I, nor anyone else outside of Orlando, saw coming. Against Boston, they trailed by 10 at halftime even though there was a stretch where they'd held the Celtics w/o a field goal for 5:45. The win over Houston was another rally as this time the Magic found themselves down seven w/ just under five minutes to go. They were very lucky in that James Harden had an all-time horrific night shooting the ball as he went 1 for 17 from three-point range. Detroit isn't known as a three-point shooting team, but they should easily top what Harden did from distance. Orlando has largely been an "Under team" this season, but the Over is 9-3 when they're off a SU win as a dog. 

Detroit has seen its last four games all stay Under the total, but those numbers were all higher than the O/U line for tonight. They were held to just 94 points Monday night in Utah, on 38.9% shooting, but that was against a Jazz team that ranks near the top of the league in defensive efficiency. It should also be pointed out that game did feature a pretty high-scoring 1st half as it was 59-53 Pistons heading into the break. Unfortunately, Detroit could only manage 35 points in the second half. The last time these teams played, the game went Over despite them combining to go 15 of 59 from three-point range. 10* Over Magic/Pistons 

7* Colorado (7:05 ET): The Avalanche have certainly struggled of late, dropping 9 of their L11 games, but they're off a win and still tied for third place in the Central Division. With a win tonight, they can have that coveted third position (guaranteed playoff spot) all to themselves. They get a fortunate draw in Ottawa, who still should be considered one of the league's worst teams even after a surprisingly strong showing out on the West Coast where they took two of three. Earlier this year, the Avs routed the Senators 6-3 in Denver. It should be a similar story here. 

Any discussion of Colorado must begin w/ their top line of Rantanen, Landeskog & MacKinnon. Even as the team has struggled, this trio has continued its outstanding play w/ 63 total points in the L17 games. The primary issue for the Avs this year has been lack of depth behind what is the top line in the league, but Monday saw Carl Soderberg step up w/ his 1st career hat trick and that proved to be the difference in an impressive 6-3 win at Toronto. Rantanen (t2nd) and MacKinnon are both top five in the league in points while Landeskog is 6th in goals. Both Landeskog and Rantanen scored against Toronto, a game where the team finished w/ a 38-20 edge in shots on goal. 

Ottawa has major issues when it comes to stopping the opponent from scoring. Things get really bad on the road, but overall they are allowing 3.87 goals per game, which is dead last in the league. They also happen to allow the highest number of shots per game at 36.9. In other words, look for Colorado's top line to have a field day in this game. Last in the Atlantic Division, the Sens have the fewest points in the league as well as the 2nd worst goal differential (Chicago). As per usual, they are outmatched in this game and I expect them to drop to 9-20 SU this year when playing w/ revenge. 7* Colorado 

10* Denver (9:05 ET): Golden State has NOT been the same team this year as in year's past. Some of that has been injuries. They're still one of the top teams in the league mind you, perhaps still the team to beat, but that aura of invincibility seems to have evaporated. I know they didn't go into the playoffs as the #1 seed LY, but virtually all numbers are down across the board this season. Perhaps most concerning of all is that they have slipped to the middle of the pack in defensive efficiency after three top five finishes in the previous four seasons. Tonight is a huge showdown in Denver and I do not think the Dubs should be favored in this spot, which is something I rarely say.

Last year, it was the Rockets. This year, Denver has emerged as the top challenger to Golden State's throne in the Western Conference. The Nuggets currently have a one-half game lead for the top spot in the standings and are probably the deepest team in the league right now. They too have battled injuries and the fact they're still ahead of the Warriors is impressive. So is their record at home. They've gone 18-3 SU at the Pepsi Center this year and won their last 12 games here. They've outscored opponents by 11.3 points per game and are 14-7 ATS despite the average line being about six points for their home games. 

Golden State comes into this Tuesday night showdown having won four straight, all against lesser foes. In fact, two of the games saw them favored by 17 or more points. This will be one of their biggest tests all season. Denver comes in not only having won 12 straight home games, but 8 of 10 overall. They already beat the Warriors once on this floor, 100-98, back in October. Golden State is just 4-7 ATS playing w/ revenge this season The Nuggets, like the Warriors, are healthier than they've been in a while. Nikola Jokic turned in a 40-10 game against Portland on Sunday and the team is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season when coming off a division game. 10* Denver

8* NY Islanders (7:05 ET): The Islanders are surging of late as they've won 8 of 10 to move into playoff position in the Eastern Conference. They're still fourth in the Metro, however, so they can't afford to cool off anytime soon. They have dropped two of their last four games, but on Sunday delivered their biggest win of the season, a 5-1 beatdown of Tampa Bay right here in Brooklyn. How can you not be impressed w/ that considering it was just the third loss in the last 21 games for the league-leading Lightning. Also impressive is the job done by HC Barry Trotz w/ this club. The Isles finished 17 pts off the playoff pace LY and gave up the most goals in league HISTORY. He now has them in playoff position and they are #3 in the league in goals allowed!

St. Louis also just notched an impressive win, beating the Stanley Cup Champs (Washington) last night by a score of 4-1. It was the Blues' third straight victory, the first time all season they've won that many in a row. They've allowed a total of just three goals during the win streak, but still rank 20th overall in that department for the season. Last night was actually their second win over the Capitals this month. But they'll be hoping to avoid a bit of a deja vu here. After beating the Capitals earlier this month, who did the Blues face their next time out? That would be the Islanders, who beat them 5-3 in St. Louis. That game saw the Isles storm back from an early 0-2 deficit and win despite a 32-14 disadvantage in shots. 

It's unlikely that the Islanders will be outshot to that degree again tonight. They're at home where typically outshoot the opposition. Also, as we saw in that last meeting, the Isles would seem to have a significant edge between the pipes. Goalie Robin Lehner has been very good all season w/ a .926 save percentage. The Blues will likely use a different goaltender than they did last night and from the last time they faced NY. Jake Allen may have stunk vs. the Islanders (just 10 saves) earlier this month, but he was good last night in a 28-save effort. Rookie Jordan Binnington is likely to get the nod tonight. While Binnington is 3-0 so far w/ a ridiculous .973 save percentage, I'm skeptical that continues. I'm similarly skeptical about the Blues, who are still second from the bottom in the Central Division w/ a -10 YTD goal differential. 8* NY Islanders 

10* Cincinnati (7:00 ET): Cincy has has its fair share of problems w/ the pointspread here in 2019. Their three-game ATS slide began w/ a real head-scratching defeat at East Carolina (where they were 17.5-point favorites!) on 1.5. Over the course of the last week they did win a pair of games, both in overtime, but didn't cover either. They beat Tulsa by five and UConn by only two. As a result, the line for tonight's home date w/ USF opened a lot lower than it should have. This is an opponent that the Bearcats have handled through the years, winning 13 straight, although they are just 3-10 ATS in those 13 SU wins. Tonight, I look for them to "get back on track" w/ a blowout victory. Lay the number here. 

South Florida comes into this game w/ a 12-4 SU and ATS record, so most are going to be tempted by them getting double digits in this spot. Don't be. Looking over USF's resume brings me back to a few months ago when I was warning clients about how overrated the school's football program was in spite of an undefeated SU record. For the record, the Bulls' hoops team is just outside my top 150 teams in the country at this point. They have really not played anyone of note this entire season. It's true that all four of their losses have been by three points or less. But two of those have come in the L3 games (at Tulsa, at Temple). Their last game (at Temple) also went to OT and they were lucky to get past regulation as they trailed by 14 at the half. This is a team that won only 10 games all of last season. 

Cincinnati will easily be the best team USF has faced all season.  The Bearcats bring it on the defensive end, giving up just 58.5 PPG at home. That's a big reason why they're 10-1 SU here. They are top 25 in defensive efficiency (per KenPom) and to me, on the fringes of being a top 25 team in America. The loss to East Carolina was definitely head-scratching (they let the Pirates shoot 51.1%). It should be noted that the two OT wins over the last week both saw Cincy leading comfortably in the second half, only to squander said leads. They led Tulsa by six w/ less than two minutes to go in regulation and UConn by as many as 11. Not only is this spread justified, it should be higher. 10* Cincinnati 

8* Ball State (7:00 ET): While undoubtedly "under the radar," Ball State probably just had as bad a 7-day stretch as any team in the country last week. They lost outright twice - both times as double digit favorites - and those games were in Muncie! That has the Cardinals reeling a bit in the MAC West, a division that looked like it could be theirs for the taking following a 79-64 win at Toledo earlier this month. But the good news is that there's plenty of time to recover and I think the team is being severely mispriced tonight at Bowling Green. This is a game the Cardinals should win easily. 

Bowling Green does come in hot as they're on a seven-game win streak. They've covered all six games that were lined, including a couple of minor upsets at Kent State and Central Michigan. The Falcons are now tied w/ Buffalo (the clear conference heavyweight) atop the MAC East. But don't expect that to last for too long. I think too many will be infatuated w/ BGSU's 8-0 SU home record here and the fact they are 6-0 ATS when there's been a line in those games. I'm not. The last time the Falcons started MAC play 3-0 was 2004-05 and while all three wins have come by double digits, the last one (at Central Mich) actually required overtime. 

I have no unearthly idea what happened w/ Ball State Saturday at home vs. Ohio. The Cardinals fell behind quickly and it was basically over from the start. They trailed 39-18 at halftime and ended up shooting a pitiful 1 of 12 from three-point range (overall FG% was just 35.4). Even on the road, those numbers HAVE to come up tonight. The loss to Eastern Michigan was a double OT affair that saw the Cards again fall victim to ridiculous three-point shooting, only this time it was by the opponent, who was 61.5% from behind the arc. Recent results have incorrectly influenced this line and I'm taking full advantage. 8* Ball State 

8* Play Over Pistons/Jazz (9:05 ET): So these teams just met nine days ago and I took the Over in what ended up being a 110-105 Utah win and cover. Both teams shot an identical percentage from the floor (47.6%), each going 39 of 82. The Pistons also outshot the Jazz from three-point range, making 11 of 25 as opposed to just 7 of 21 for Utah. Detroit was also 80% from the free throw line, but Utah had 12 more attempts and made nine of them. That was the difference in the ballgame. I thought the total was too low in the Motor City and the oddsmakers still haven't adjusted for the rematch here in Salt Lake City. I'm on the Over again. 

Something else I've written about recently is how you're going to see the Jazz go on a nice run here in January. I said this before taking them Friday night against LA, a game they easily covered as 8.5-pt chalk as they won 113-95. They won again the following night, again here at home, 110-102 over Chicago (though they did not cover). The schedule sets up well for Utah moving forward as this is their fourth straight game playing as a home favorite. They'll visit the Clippers on Wednesday, but after that it's four more home games and they should be favored every time.

Utah has won and covered five straight times against Detroit. To have any chance of snapping that streak, the Pistons are going to have to find a way to score (obviously!) as they come in averaging just 104.6 points over the L5 games. Not a terrible average, but a slight increase would be helpful here. For them, tonight is the end of a four-game trip out West. The Under is 3-0 so far, but the totals for the previous three games were all much higher than this one. They did just upset the Clippers on Saturday, led by Blake Griffin's 44 points. So if you want to know where the offense is likely to come from, there you go. Utah is shooting 46.7% for the year at home where it averages 111.1 PPG. An average game from the two sides, in terms of points scored and allowed, would work itself out to an Over here. An "average game" doesn't sound that difficult to me. 8* Over Pistons/Jazz 

10* Memphis (8:05 ET): The Grizzlies have had a heck of a time covering games lately as their ATS record since December 14th is a money-burning 2-13. But that didn't stop me from taking them last Wednesday against the Spurs, whom they upset 96-86 in an outright win as 8.5-point road underdogs. They had two days off following that result, so it had to be considered a huge disappointment to then lose a closely contested game down in Miami, 112-108, Saturday (blew a DD 1st half lead). I realize there's some "internal strife" going on w/ the team, but they're in an excellent spot plus the points tonight in Houston. I'll take the Grizz as underdogs yet again. 

Houston is the second night of a back to back and suffered a surprising loss last night in Orlando. James Harden had an absolutely dreadful night shooting, particularly from three-point range where he went 1 for 17! Though Harden still ended up w/ 38 pts, tying Kobe Bryant's streak of 16 straight 30+ point games, the 16 misses from behind the arc tied a more dubious NBA record. Harden will probably shoot a better percentage from 3-pt range tonight, but the streak of 30+ pt games is still going to come to an end sooner rather than later. Remember that the Rockets are still w/o Chris Paul by the way (helps explain Harden's recent scoring surge).

Memphis' strength lies on the defensive end where they give up only 102.7 PPG. That's the best number in the league, mind you. So provided they can find a way to score, they should have no problem covering this generous number against an unrested foe. Chandler Parsons has taken a leave of absence from the team and Kyle Anderson is hurt, but that's nothing compared to how short-handed the Rockets are coming into this one. Not only is Paul out, but so is Eric Gordon and Clint Capella is listed as questionable due to a thumb injury suffered last night. The Rockets are 3-10 ATS this season after allowing 115+ points in their previous game (gave up 116 last night). This is a double revenge spot for the Grizzlies as well. 10* Memphis 

10* Play Over Canadiens/Bruins (7:35 ET): These teams have a (recent) history of playing low-scoring affairs. In fact, two of the three meetings this year have produced a shutout (one by each team). Montreal is on a seven-game Under run and Boston is #2 in the league in goals allowed. Each team's top goaltender - Carey Price for the Habs and Tuukka Rask for the Bruins - has been red hot of late. The Under seems so "logical" in this scenario that even the official game preview referenced it! However, contrarian that I am, I'm looking to go the other way Monday night. Take the Over.

Now, I'm not betting the Over here just to be different. We're getting a good number here as 5.5 goal totals are still common in this sport, but not as much as they used to be. Scoring is up this year in the NHL and I'm counting on that trend play out tonight in Boston. The Bruins are averaging an impressive 3.6 goals per game here on home ice this season. Note that over their L10 games, the B's have seen at least six total goals (them and their opponent combined) scored six times. The Under is 3-0-1 their L4, but I'm expecting a big offensive breakthrough this evening. Don't discount the impact that the Bruins' 3rd ranked power play could have on this game.

Rask may not play tonight, which would be to our benefit. But even if he does, it's highly unlikely he'll be able to maintain his recent save percentage, which is at .954 the L5 games. Backup Jaroslav Halak's save percentage in his L4 starts is just .892. For Montreal, Price has posted two shutouts in his L5 starts, the latest coming against Colorado Saturday night (3-0 win). But I expect his numbers to take a slight dip moving forward as well. The Habs haven't faced too many prolific offensive teams recently, which partly explains the rash of Unders. Boston is 6th in the league in gpg at home and did score four times against Price when they faced him last month, on the road. The Bruins have averaged just under 35 shots per game in the three meetings w/ Montreal this season. 10* Over Canadiens/Bruins

8* Play on Nebraska (6:30 ET): As of this writing, Indiana is still ranked (#22), but that's likely to change before tipoff as they lost to Maryland on Friday. Interestingly enough, despite that ranking, this is the second straight game where the Hoosiers are NOT the higher rated team in my eyes. You needed to look no further than the pointspread for confirmation of that in the Maryland game. IU was a 5.5-pt dog in College Park and backers were lucky to get a miracle "backdoor" cover on a last-second three that made the game a 78-75 final. Here, Indiana's "inferiority" isn't quite as obvious, but I personally have Nebraska rated noticeably higher in my own personal power ratings. Take the points. 

I've written this before, but it bears repeating here. I'm pretty high on this Cornhuskers squad and believe them to be one of the more underrated teams in the country right now. They're top 10 in the country in offensive efficiency (per KenPom) and coming off a 70-64 win over Penn State on Thursday. They come into this game having had one more day than Indiana to prepare. Nebraska is outscoring teams by almost 18 PPG this year. While they're 0-3 in Big 10 road games thus far (including a 2-pt loss at Maryland), the Huskers do own a win at Clemson earlier in the year.

This game being in Bloomington figures to be a big talking points coming into this game. Yes, Indiana is 10-0 SU at home this year. But isn't it curious then that they're not favored by more? The Hoosiers are in the same predicament Nebraska found itself in Thursday, that being off B2B road losses. They blew a 14-pt 1st half lead vs. Maryland after losing to Michigan. Nebraska is one of the few teams in the Big 10 (or country, for that matter) that can shoot the ball as well as IU. The Hoosiers' depth is currently being tested as several reserves are injured. In the last two games, they've gotten a grand total of TWO points from their bench! Meanwhile, I actually think it was a good sign for Nebraska that they were able to win Thursday despite leading scorer James Palmer Jr scoring only 11 pts on 3 of 12 shooting. He has eight 20+ pt games this year and averages 19.5 PPG. He'll bounce back tonight and lead his team to the cover (and likely SU win). 8* Nebraska

6* Winnipeg (6:05 ET): Anaheim has lost 10 in a row and Bell MTS Place in Manitoba seems like it would be one of the least likely places for such a streak to be snapped. Incredibly, the Ducks last six losses all came at home and in the last one, they surrendered seven goals. That was their most goals allowed in a game at the Honda Center in almost eight years. While the Ducks have blown a lead in five of their last seven games, don't expect them to be out in front - for any portion of the game - this evening. The Jets are 16-6-2 SU on home ice where they are averaging 3.8 gpg. 

If you recall some of my past analysis, I was predicting a Ducks' downfall before the current slide even began. The ironic thing about many of their recent defeats is that early in the season, they were winning plenty of games in which they trailed early. It was an unsustainable blueprint for success, one that has come home to roost. The team's YTD goal differential now sits at -27, which is worse than all but two teams in the conference, those being the two last place teams, Chicago and Los Angeles. The worst thing about giving up seven goals to the Penguins Friday is that the Ducks scored four themselves. Normally, they don't score that many. They currently rank 30th in the league in goals per game. 

Winnipeg had little difficulty beating another downtrodden team, Detroit, here at home on Friday. They won that one 4-2 as they took an early 3-0 lead and that easily held. Neither goal they allowed came at even strength. Despite that win, the Jets are still in a dogfight with the Preds for 1st place in the Central. The Preds play early on Sunday, so by gametime Winnipeg will either need these two points to keep pace or to move into first by their lonesome. While relatively speaking, this is a decent amount of juice to lay, it's actually a very good price on the Jets. 6* Winnipeg

10* Northern Iowa (4:00 ET): You might be wondering why a 6-10 team that's struggled at the betting window (N Iowa) would be laying points to a 12-4 team (Drake) that's been highly profitable. Well, unless you've been following the Missouri Valley closely, then you are likely unaware that Drake lost senior guard Nick Norton (14.0 PPG) for the season to an ACL injury. In addition to being second on the team in scoring, Norton was the assist leader. It's a loss that will be very difficult to overcome and likely derails the Bulldogs season. 

Today will be the first road game for Drake since the Norton injury, which occurred at Evansville back on the 2nd of this month. The Bulldogs lost that Evansville game in double overtime (Norton injury occurred in 1st half) and then predictably got humbled by Loyola-Chicago at home last weekend (lost by 11). The team did bounce back Tuesday, beating Southern Illinois at home, 82-70 as a two-point dog. That was a situation where the oddsmakers had clearly overadjusted for the injury. But here's a spot where the opposite holds true. I just don't see Drake winning, given that they already allow 79.6 PPG away from home.

Northern Iowa was a nice winner for me that same night Norton got hurt. The Panthers went to Bradley and won outright, 65-47 as 7.5-point dogs. They've since resumed their losing ways, dropping a couple close ones to Southern Illinois and Illinois State. But this is a good bounce back spot in Cedar Falls as UNI has to start improving upon a 3-11 ATS mark for this year (they're 24-46 ATS L3 seasons). The Panthers play good defense at home, giving up just 64 PPG. Drake has failed to cover the spread in 10 of its last 11 visits to Cedar Falls. I do not expect their hot three-point shooting from the start of the season to continue (Norton was 40.0%) while at the same time, their turnover rate (already an alarming 19.2%) should continue to rise. 10* Northern Iowa

8* Under Bucks/Hawks (3:35 ET): This total is simply too high, especially if Giannis Antetokounmpo ends up not playing. Sure, we know the Bucks can score on Atlanta. The last time these teams played, Milwaukee was my 10* Game of the Week and they hung 144 pts on the Hawks, making 55 of the 100 shots they attempted. That's a ridiculous percentage considering the number of field goal attempts and something that's unlikely to be repeated, especially on the road and possibly w/o their best player. For the record, with or without "The Greek Freak," this Under play stands. 

Antetoukounmpo is expected to play here as he was upgraded to probable this morning. When the Bucks trounced the Hawks earlier this month, none of the starters played more than 22 minutes as it was a 43-14 game at the end of one quarter. I would not expect that kind of game to unfold yet again here, even if Milwaukee ends up winning comfortably. On the road, the Bucks' scoring average "dips" to 113.1 PPG, down from 120.5 at home. The Under is 12-6 this year for them when the face a team w/ a losing record. Atlanta has one of the worst records in the league at 13-29 SU. 

The Bucks did just lose w/o Antetokounmpo, 113-106 at Washington, so that might give Atlanta some hope here. Plus, the Hawks are off a pretty shocking results as they went to Philly on Friday as DD underdogs and came away w/ a 123-121 victory. However, take note that the Under is 29-12 the L3 seasons when Atlanta is off an outright win as a dog. That includes 8-2 this season. The Hawks are near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency (29th). Milwaukee has gone Under in its last three games. 8* Under Bucks/Hawks 

8* LA Chargers (1:05 ET): At some point before kickoff, you are likely to hear that Philip Rivers has never beaten Tom Brady. The lifetime record is 0-7 SU and the Chargers have covered the spread in only one of the games, which happened to be the 2007 AFC Championship when the Patriots were undefeated and Rivers was playing on a torn ACL. (Rivers referenced that game in his post-game interview last week). For the record, Rivers has beaten the Patriots once (in 2008), but that was the year Matt Cassel had to fill in for an injured Brady. It also should be noted that the majority of the head-to-head matchups between Rivers and Brady have been close games. This might be Rivers best shot ever at beating Brady. I'm taking the points. 

At first glance, the timing and circumstance of this matchup do not seem most ideal from the Chargers' perspective. It's the second straight week where kickoff will be at 10 AM PST and the Patriots are off a bye. Nevertheless, there is a lot to like about this Chargers team. The defense is much better than in years' past. They held the Ravens to just three points and less than 100 total yds (including a negative in net passing!) through three quarters in the Wild Card game. Obviously, it will not be that easy here against Brady & the Patriots. But fortunately for the Chargers, their offense should also be a lot better this week. They average more yards per play this year than every team besides the Chiefs and Rams. Also, they won't have to face a Ravens' defense that is #1 in the league. 

The Patriots, like the Chargers, rank in the top 10 in the league in scoring defense. But there's a bit of a gap when it comes to the number of yards allowed. The Chargers are #9 in yards allowed while the Patriots rank 21st. New England was the only team in the league not to lose at home during the regular season, but the Chargers were arguably the league's toughest road team as they are now 8-1 SU and that one loss wasn't a true road trip as it came in LA against the Rams. I'm not convinced that the better team isn't the one getting points here. The Chargers are also 5-1 ATS as underdogs this season, also winning all five of those games outright. In terms of points allowed vs. scored and yards allowed vs. gained, these teams are relatively even on a per game basis. But the Chargers are significantly better on a per play basis. 8* LA Chargers

10* Over Chargers/Patriots (1:05 ET): Points were not plentiful on Wild Card Weekend and that includes the Chargers' 23-17 win over the Ravens. From the Chargers' perspective, that game probably shouldn't have ended up so close as they were gifted a couple early turnovers and had a couple of long returns from the special teams. Yet three different times they started on the Baltimore side of the field and could only manage field goals. Their defense largely dominated Lamar Jackson early, using a creative scheme, but let the Ravens back in late w/ a couple of long 4Q TD drives. I have every reason to believe we're going to get a much higher scoring game this weekend and the Over on Chargers-Patriots is my top Playoff Total of the Year! 

It's a much different QB and offense that Los Angeles will have to defend this week as they face Tom Brady and a Patriots team that averages 32.9 PPG at home. Last week, partly due to being short on linebackers, the Chargers went w/ 7 DB's on all but one snap. This clearly confused Lamar Jackson, who really never got going running the ball, and the Chargers' D-line dominated the game. Such an approach probably won't be used against Brady, nor would it be successful. For starters, New England has had an extra week to prepare. Secondly, this is not the run heavy offense that Baltimore employs. That's not to say the Chargers' defense won't find success in this game. It's just that it will have to come in a different way. Plus, like I said earlier, the Pats are averaging 32.9 PPG here in Foxboro. 

I played the Over in New England's final regular season game. It ended up coming up just short due to their opponents (Jets) red zone inefficiencies. Twice the Jets had the ball insider the Patriots' 10-yard line and turned it over on downs. That was the difference in the 38-3 final staying Under the 46.5-point total. The Chargers, despite last week's performance, are far less likely to bog down in the red zone. They average an impressive 6.4 yards per play, a number topped only by the offenses of the Chiefs and Rams. New England's defense may be 7th in scoring (20.3 PPG allowed), but that's a little misleading in the sense that they also rank 21st in yards per game (359.1), so it's a real "bend but don't break" unit. Both offenses are in the top six in the league in scoring here and this total is too low. 10* Over Chargers/Patriots

8* play on Charlotte (10:05 ET): I fully understand that no one is going to be in a rush to place a bet on the Hornets tonight after the way they were embarrassed last night in Portland. But if anyone should apprehensive and/or embarrassed, it would be me as I'm sad to report I actually took Charlotte last night. They were quickly run out of the gym by the Blazers and entered the 4th quarter down 33 points (outscored by double digits in each of those first three quarters). It was a dreadful effort at both ends, one I surmise the team is going to be eager to atone for tonight. 

Sacramento is playing .500 ball through the first 42 games, which is a far cry from what we've seen from them the last decade. But I remain highly skeptical that they're going to remain "afloat" in what is perhaps the most loaded Western Conference in recent memory. They've been outscored on the season, mainly because no team out West gives up more points per game (116.0). That's eventually going to catch up w/ them, especially as they continue to be favored. Shockingly, tonight will be the 4th straight game where the Kings are favored (when's the last time that happened?). They've fared well as chalk so far (8-1 SU/7-2 ATS), but again, I just don't see it lasting.

The Kings turned in a far better than usual defensive performance Thursday vs. Detroit, thanks in large part to Blake Griffin being a late scratch for the Pistons. Coming off a double digit win, the team is just 4-18 SU the L3 seasons and 6-16 ATS. You can bet it's been rare that they've been favored in this spot. Sure enough, it was the case Tuesday in Phoenix when they lost outright. Charlotte has a better YTD point differential than Sacramento, thus I'm seeing value in the current number, which is inflated due to the Hornets having played poorly last night. 8* Charlotte 

10* Play on Cal Poly (10:00 ET): I continue to be a little astounded at how a bad team like Cal State Northridge is being priced on the road. Granted I was wrong on Wednesday when they went out and beat UC Riverside 84-83, a final that fell very close to the number. But still, the Matadors don't have a profile of a team that should be EXPECTED to win on the road as they're just dreadful defensively (83.6 PPG allowed) and aren't in my top 300 teams in the country. Cal Poly also happens to be on the "wrong side" of 300 in my own personal power ratings, but they're at home Saturday night and thus deserve to be favored, at least by the token amount. Go w/ the home side here. 

It's not been a good season for Cal Poly as they're only 4-10 SU and have lost five of their last six. Their last win over a D-I opponent came back on December 8th, over Bethune-Cookman, by just two points. So this sets up as a pretty ugly battle at the bottom of the Big West, but one thing that I expect is for the Mustangs to score more than usual in this game. Their last two games on the road have produced dreadful offensive showings. They shot just 37.7% from the field Wednesday against UCSB, including 7 of 25 from three-point range. They also attempted only 7 free throws in the contest and made just three. Numbers should be up across the board tonight as like I said earlier, Cal State Northridge is not a good team defensively. 

Cal State Northridge has been involved in a lot of close games recently w/ their last six all decided by eight points or less. Thus, because they're typically the underdog, they've managed to go 8-1 ATS their last nine contests. But I just can't see this team winning B2B games on the conference road. Terrell Gomez had a career-high 32 pts against UC Riverside on Wednesday and the Matadors probably aren't getting that kind of game from him again. Also note they trailed by seven at the half in that last game. There's been only one game all year that the Matadors didn't give up at least 77 points. That's bad. When these teams met on this floor LY, Cal Poly scored 90. 10* Play on Cal Poly

10* Play OVER Celtics/Magic (7:05 ET): It's been a tale of two games this week for Boston, who blew out Indiana Wednesday (at home), only to then lose at Miami on Thursday. In my eyes, this is a team destined to move up the Eastern Conference standings in the second half of the season as the own the second best point differential in league right now. I find that point diff is a far better predictor of future performance than is a team's actual won-loss record. That being said, I still would be a little guarded about laying this many points on the road tonight, even though the opponent has struggled mightily of late. 

This season got off to a somewhat promising start for Orlando, but they've hit the skids hard. They just ended a six-game road trip w/ four consecutive losses, all by double digits. In the last three, they failed to score even 100 points every time. I realize that facing a Boston team that ranks third in the NBA in defensive efficiency doesn't exactly scream "offensive turnaround," however the Magic do average a respectable number of points per game at home (105.9). Curiously, they also allow FAR more points per game at home (111.4) than they do on the road (105.0). Boston should score plenty in this game. 

Despite ranking 3rd in defensive efficiency, the Celtics still give up 108 PPG on the road. The Over is 14-7 in their 21 road games so far and the number of points they're allowing has to be considered the main reason they have a losing record (10-11 SU) outside of Beantown. Thursday in Miami marked just the fifth time the Celtics were beaten by double digits this season. The Over is 3-1 off the previous four instances. The Over is also 9-2 their L11 games overall. The Miami game marked the 1st time Boston had been held under 100 pts (they scored 99) since a game vs. Utah on November 17th. When they hosted Orlando back in October, it was their lowest scoring game of the season (lost 93-90), but that was a dreadful shooting night for both sides and only 19 total free throws were attempted in the contest. 10* Play OVER Celtics/Magic

10* Kansas City (4:35 ET): Incredibly, underdogs have now cashed in 14 of the last 15 NFL playoff games. That included a 4-0 ATS sweep last weekend. Another trend Chiefs' fans won't want to hear is that their team is an absolutely woeful 4-16 SU, 3-17 ATS in the postseason since winning Super Bowl IV! That includes just ONE win since '93 (when Joe Montana was the QB!) and that sole victory came in 2016 against a 9-7 Texans team that was quarterbacked by the immortal duo of Brian Hoyer and Brandon Weeden! Since '93, there have been an incredible NINE "one and done's" by the Chiefs in the playoffs, four of those coming when they were at home and off the bye in this very Divisional Round. But never fear KC, I'm hear to tell you that things are going to be "all right" this year. Lay the points! 

Since '03, there's been only one time that the Chiefs lost at home in the Divisional Round. That was two years ago to the Steelers. This team is much better than any Chiefs team that has preceded it. Let's start w/ QB Patrick Mahomes and that record-setting offense, which led the league in both yardage and scoring. In Mahomes, HC Andy Reid finally has a QB capable of carrying his team to a SuperBowl. The problem for the Chiefs' in recent playoff appearances has been a lack of scoring. In the L11 playoff games, they've topped 21 pts just three times (including the 30-0 win over the Texans). That certainly should not be a problem here w/ an offense that comes in averaging 35.3 PPG. The Chiefs scored at least 26 pts in every regular season game. 

I think it's fair to say that no one expected Indianapolis to still be playing at this point of the season. Especially when they were 1-5 SU. But over the last three months, Frank Reich's team has been as good as anybody, going 10-1 SU the L11 games. They used a fast start (touchdowns on first two drives) to eliminate Houston last weekend, winning 21-7. But the Chiefs are a whole lot better than the Texans and anybody else the Colts have faced this year. The only playoff team that Indy beat this year besides Houston was Dallas and that game was at home. I just cannot see any way that KC loses this game as they have to be feeling "this is our year" after leading the AFC in point differential (+144) by a wide margin in the regular season. 10* Kansas City 

8* San Diego State (4:00 ET): I won w/ SDSU on Tuesday and quite frankly, it was even easier than I expected as they dispatched of Wyoming, 84-54 as 13.5-pt chalk. Taking advantage of an opponent that was down to just seven scholarship players, the Aztecs wasted little time in taking control of their 1st conference home game. They led by 23 going into the break and in terms of shooting, it was the complete opposite of what we saw vs. Boise State. Though back on the road Saturday afternoon, I have little doubt that the Aztecs should roll against a bad Air Force squad. Lay the short number. 

Air Force has lost five of its last six games, including B2B double digit defeats. Now both of those losses took place on the road, one at Utah State (by 17) and the other at Colorado State (by 23). But it's not like the Flyboys are particularly dominant here in Colorado Springs where their SU record is only 4-3 for the year. The Falcons lost their 1st MWC home game - to New Mexico - by seven points. They and Wyoming are the only MWC teams at 0-3 SU in conference play right now. The Falcons trailed by as many as 25 against Colorado State and were down double digits virtually the entire game. This is not a very good team, plain and simple. 

San Diego State has lost its two road games, at Cal and Boise State, somewhat skewing their home vs. road splits. But the Aztecs are a team that can score as is evident by the fact they come in averaging 76.5 PPG. It's kind of been "feast or famine" of late w/ the L6 games seeing them score 84+ three times, but also 65 or less in the other three. The AFA allows 71.8 PPG for the year, but has given up 79 and 87 its L2 games. Another key is that SDSU is 3-1 ATS this year after allowing fewer than 60 pts in its last game. They've won three straight over Air Force, all of the wins coming by at least 11 points. 8* San Diego State

6* NY Islanders (1:05 ET): This is the second game of a home and home between the two New York hockey teams. I took the Islanders Thursday on the road and they won 4-3 (despite a 30-20 deficit in shots). I see no reason why not to come back w/ the Isles again this afternoon. Sure it was close in MSG. But the Islanders have owned this Big Apple rivalry as they've gone 13-2 SU the L15 meetings. They're definitely the better team this year and the gap only appears to be widening. Now the home team, the Islanders have the edge all over the ice. 

In my analysis for that last game, I talked about how these teams had been trending in very opposite directions. The Islanders have won 10 of their last 12 games. The Rangers have now dropped five in a row as well as 8 of their last 10. In those five straight losses, they've given up a total of 26 goals. Given the respective YTD goal differentials, we should continue to see these teams trend apart. The Islanders have scored 14 more goals than they've given up this year, a strong number for this point in the season, while the Rangers have given up 30 more than they've scored.

It's also a pretty substantial edge in goal these days for the Isles. Robin Lehner continues to perform at a high level for them between the pipes as he's won a career-best eight straight starts and has a stellar .943 save percentage his L5 starts (stopped 150 of 159 shots). Meanwhile, the once might Henrik Lundqvist is having a terrible go of it for the Rangers of late. He's been yanked twice during the Rangers current losing skid and let in four goals on just 20 shots Thursday. That dropped his save percentage over his L5 starts to a woeful .871. It doesn't help his cause that the Rangers have only scored 8 goals the L5 games. 6* NY Islanders

8* Play on Utah (10:05 ET): I'm going to go on the record here and predict that the Jazz are about to go on a serious run. The upcoming schedule sets up quite well for them with seven of the next eight games taking place at home. Part of the reason this teams is still floundering around .500 is that they've played a league-low 17 home games to this point. The current homestand is already off to a good start as they beat Orlando by 13 here on Wednesday night. That game didn't necessarily start well (Jazz trailed by 17 at halftime), but led by Donovan Mitchell's 33 points, they dominated the second half. 

The big story for the Lakers is that LeBron James is still going to be out another week as he continues to nurse that groin injury suffered in the X-Mas Day win over Golden State. Though off B2B wins, the Lakers have gone just 3-5 SU w/o LeBron. Even when James returns, I'm not sure this team is going to make the playoffs in what is a very loaded Western Conference. Given the B2B wins, I can see how it would be tempting to take the Lakers plus the points. But I'm here to advise you to the contrary as Utah has been a much better team offensively at home, averaging 111.0 PPG. 

The Lakers got a season-best and career-best performance from two players in the L2 games. Against Dallas, it was Brandon Ingram scoring a season-high 29 points. Versus Detroit, Kyle Kuzma scored a career-best 41 points (in just three quarters). I wouldn't be too confident in either player duplicating those kind of performances here as Utah has risen back up to 5th in the league in defensive efficiency. Despite being in 9th place, the Jazz are actually 5th in the West in both net efficiency rating and point differential. So that's another sign that a run is likely forthcoming. The Lakers are actually 8th in both categories. 8* Play on Utah

10* Charlotte (10:05 ET): The Hornets could really use a win here as they've fallen two games below .500. That's by no means the end of the world in the weak Eastern Conference, but 8th place (their current position) is a precarious place to be in. The Hornets lost their last time out 128-109 at the Clippers as they continue to try and navigate this West Coast swing w/o Cody Zeller. Tonight is the fourth game of a six-game trip, but at least they will have had two full days off since losing to the Clippers. I think Charlotte is a getting too many points in this one. 

Portland was responsible for my *10* Total of the Week cashing Wednesday night as they shot 56.6% from the floor in a 124-112 home win against lowly Chicago. This game isn't going to be nearly as easy w/ the Hornets coming in desperate and obviously they're simply a better team than the Bulls. The Blazers have had some nice wins to start the year, including beating OKC and Houston here at home, but might they be looking forward to Sunday's game in Denver? That's a distinct possibility. I also wouldn't look for Portland's bench to contribute as much here as they did vs. Chicago (56 points!). 

In terms of efficiency, these teams are actually close to even. Charlotte actually owns a slight edge on the offensive end while Portland is a little better defensively. Still, even w/ as well as Portland is playing at the start of 2019, I'm not sure they deserve to be laying quite this many points. It should be pointed out that not only did the Blazers just beat the Bulls, they played the Knicks before that. So Charlotte will definitely be a "step up" in competition. Kemba Walker (25.5 PPG) is one of the NBA's leading scorers and I look for him to have a big game tonight and keep the Hornets in this one. 10* Charlotte 

10* Wright State (7:00 ET): These are the two top teams in the Horizon this year, a league which has become quite watered down through the years (no more Butler or even Valpo). So far in 2019, Northern Kentucky has been the one to seemingly emerge as the true favorite to win the regular season crown. The Norse are 13-4 SU w/ a perfect 10-0 record at home. They're off to a 3-1 start in conference play w/ the lone loss coming last Thursday, by two points, on the road vs. Oakland. But considering the stakes here, I view Northern Kentucky as overvalued coming into the first game w/ Wright State this year. Take the points. 

Wright State played the same two teams Northern Kentucky did last week, also both on the road, just in reverse order. They also experienced opposite results, losing at Detroit, but then beating Oakland. After that 1-1 Michigan split, the Raiders are now set for their biggest road test of the entire conference schedule. The schedule makers have not been kind to Wright State as they'll end up playing five in a row on the road after all is said and done next week. They hadn't won a single time away from home before beating Oakland on Saturday, so it might seem like they're in trouble here, but I think it's quite the contrary. 

This is the first time Wright State will have been an underdog in conference play this season. They did sweep Northern Kentucky last year, winning both games by a total of just five points. For what it's worth, it was Wright State picked over Northern Kentucky in the preseason Horizon League poll. As good as Northern Kentucky has looked at home so far, the last five meetings between these teams have all been decided by seven points or less. Wright State might only be 8-9 SU this season, but they have six losses by seven points or less, not to mention four by 4 pts or less. They're a better team than their SU record and I expect them to "show up" in a big way tonight. 10* Wright State

8* Detroit (10:05 ET): The Pistons lost again Wednesday night, this time to the LeBron-less Lakers. The final score was 113-100 as they fell victim to a 41-point outburst from Kyle Kuzma, who played just three quarters. That's a pretty embarrassing setback all things considered and if the Pistons want to be considered a playoff team they can't afford to drop another game tonight. I know the Lakers were w/o LeBron last night, but I find it interesting that the Kings are laying more points to Detroit than LA did. This looks to be a classic scenario where the team playing in the second night of back to back is being undervalued. Detroit is desperate at this point. Grab the points. 

For some time now, I've been writing how skeptical I am over Sacramento's chances to stay viable in the playoff hunt in an absolutely loaded Western Conference. Sure enough, my skepticism is starting to come to fruition as the Kings have dropped four of their last five games. Their most recent setback came Tuesday as they blew a 21-point lead on the road and lost at Phoenix. That'll be tough to overcome and it should be pointed out that the Suns are the only team "out of it" in the Western Conference. The Kings simply aren't favored very often (happened only 8 times), so they make a good fade for me tonight as it's even more rare to see them laying this many points. 

The Pistons have dropped three in a row, six out of their last seven and 15 out of their last 19 games. Playing the second night of a back to back might seem like the LEAST likely time for them to turn things around, but they are facing the team that gives up the most points per game (116.4) in the Western Conference.  That should allow for a Detroit team that often struggles to score to "make some hay" tonight. The Pistons have covered three of their four times they've been in the 2nd game of a back to back. They're getting too many points here and an outright win would not surprise me in the least. 8* Detroit 

10* Oklahoma City (9:35 ET): The Thunder are in off B2B outright losses (to Washington & Minnesota!), both at home no less. But they're in a great spot tonight to ambush the Spurs, who had to play last night. We won going against San Antonio Wednesday, calling it an "ANTI-PUBLIC BURIAL" and sure enough they lost outright in Memphis, 96-86. While that was just the fourth loss for the Spurs in their L17 games, I'll call for them to drop B2B games for the 1st time since early December as they're "due" to start giving some back following a 14-2 ATS stretch. 

I actually was a winner in OKC's last game as well, only w/ the Over. They were facing Minnesota and it ended up being a wild shootout w/ the Thunder coming out on the losing end, 119-117. Honestly, I'm not sure how OKC lost that game to a Minnesota team playing for the 1st time since firing Tom Thibodeau. Well, actually I do. Free throws were the difference w/ the T'wolves going 32 of 40 from the line. Andrew Wiggins was 16 of 18 alone while OKC made only 19 FT's as a team for the entire game. Still, the Thunder are 10 games above .500 and own the best YTD point differential in the Western Conference. 

Being in the second night of a back to back is not good news for the Spurs as they are just 1-6 SU in that role this season. They'll also be w/o forward Rudy Gay again. It was certainly an ugly offensive showing last night w/ San Antonio tying a season-low w/ 31 pts in the 1st half. They also set season lows in field goals made (30) and assists (14). While at home tonight, they'll be facing an OKC team that ranks #1 in the league in defensive efficiency by a fairly comfortable margin. Again, I come back to the likelihood of the Spurs "giving some back" after the incredible stretch over the last month or so. This is the front end of a home and home between the teams and I believe OKC is in an excellent position to sweep the two games. It starts w/ a win on TNT tonight! 10* Oklahoma City

10* Edmonton (9:05 ET): Two struggling teams meet here w/ the Oilers looking to snap an ugly five-game home losing skid. Florida has dropped three in a row overall, so something will have to give. Despite a couple of ugly losses, Edmonton was able to earn a split on a just completed four-game road trip through the Pacific. In terms of future outlook, I think they're in better position than the Panthers. Not only because of Connor McDavid, but also because of the division they play in. The Oilers are in the playoff hunt (three points out) while the Panthers are languishing well behind the pace (by 10 points) over in the Eastern Conference. Edmonton badly needs these two points and gets them Thursday night. 

It would be a damn shame if the Oilers were to waste what has been one of the great individual seasons (from McDavid) w/ another non-playoff year. In 42 games played, McDavid has 63 points while averaging over 22 minutes of ice time per contest. With him on the ice, the team is outscoring its opponents by a pretty substantial margin. The problem is when McDavid heads to the bench. But still, tonight's game is the start of a favorable stretch for them. Six of their next eight opponents, including this one, are currently NOT in playoff position. Also, six of the next seven games are at home. Of course, a second half surge would actually require them winning on home ice, something they have not done since December 14th. 

I think the Oilers are poised to break the drought tonight. Florida just got whipped in Pittsburgh, losing 5-1 as goalie Roberto Luongo was chased early. This is also a revenge spot for Edmonton, who lost 4-1 down in Miami, which is obviously a very far road trip. Now the proverbial "shoe is on the other foot" and the Panthers have to make the long trek. Already near the bottom of the league in goals allowed per game, Florida has proven to be quite generous to its opponents on the road, giving up 3.9 gpg. The Oilers, McDavid specifically, should take full advantage of that. 10* Edmonton

10* Play on Middle Tennessee (8:00 ET): So, as alluded to in the promo for this pick, two nights ago saw me win with a Missouri State team that had previously been pretty dreadful at the pay window this season. But that didn't stop them from going to Indiana State and winning outright, 72-57, in shockingly easy fashion. I'm not saying this dog is going to win that easy, or even win outright, but we're getting a really good value on Middle Tennessee due to their terrible 1-12 ATS record this season. That's the worst ATS record in the country right now. But tonight they're facing a Southern Miss team that's lost three in a row and getting double digits. I say take the points.

Not only has Middle Tennessee not been covering, they haven't been winning much either. Their last SU victory came back on November 16th against Charleston Southern, 76-73, a game they were favored to win by 9.5 points. Their only other two SU wins both came against non-DI competition. The Blue Raiders have taken on some tough competition over the last two months, facing the likes of Virginia, Butler, Vanderbilt, Murray State and Ole Miss. I won't bore you w/ the particulars, but it generally hasn't been a fun time. That said, conference play has opened w/ a pair of close losses, the first time they've started 0-2 in C-USA in over a decade. The Blue Raiders were actually favored their  last time out (vs. FAU) and led by seven points at halftime. So that's a step in the right direction. 

As bad as things have been for Middle Tennessee this year, I remain unconvinced that Southern Miss should be a DD fave in this spot, even in Hattiesburg. The Golden Eagles are coming off a brutal six-game road trip, which ended w/ three consecutive defeats. They've generally been competitive, even against the likes of Wichita State and Kansas State, but competitive "won't cut it" in this price range. Setting aside a couple wins against non-DI opponents, USM has not won many games by significant margins this season. They even lost to a non-DI team, William Carey, back on November 25th! It's an 0-5 ATS record for the Golden Eagles as chalk this season. 10* Play on Middle Tennessee 

9* NY Islanders (7:35 ET): This is one of two late adds I've made to my Thursday card (the other is in NBA) and quite honestly I'm not sure how I "missed it" the first time going through the NHL card. While both ply their trade in New York City, the Islanders and Rangers are trending in very different directions of late. The Isles just had a six-game win streak snapped, but they've still won 9 of their last 11 games. Meanwhile, the Rangers have dropped four straight as well as 7 of their last 9. Those four straight losses saw them give up a a total of 22 goals! The Islanders rank 4th in the league in goals allowed, giving them a substantial edge in this matchup. Take them. 

The Islanders lost to another hot team, Carolina, on Tuesday. It was a 4-3 game where they actually outshot the Hurricanes, something that most Carolina opponents do not do. This team currently projects as a legit playoff contender w/ a +13 goal differential and 50 points. Right now, I'd say they may not even have to rely on the Wild Card, but could instead finish in the top three in the Metro. Tonight is a revenge game as they were embarrassed 5-0 the last time they skated at this rink. You can bet avenging that defeat will be on the players' minds here. They are still 8-2 SU their L10 games vs. the Rangers.

When the Rangers beat the Isles here at MSG in November, they were on the tail end of a 9-1-1 surge that had some thinking this team had a playoff run in them. But that proved to be foolish optimism as the Blueshirts have gone just 5-10-5 since and won B2B games just one time. Things have gotten really dire of late as they've been outscored 22-5 the L4 games. Henrik Lundqvist sat out Tuesday's loss to Vegas, but it's not like he's played all that well of late (.882 save percentage L4 games) and he was tagged for five goals in a 7-5 loss to the Isles earlier this year. The Islanders also gave their top netminder a rest in the last game, but the difference is that Robin Lehner has a .953 save percentage his L4 starts. 9* NY Islanders

10* Over Bulls/Blazers (10:05 ET): I tried w/ the Over in Portland's last game, but unfortunately they and the Knicks just couldn't "get there" falling a a bit short of the number. At first glance, a date w/ Chicago (who ranks last in the league in offensive efficiency) hardly seems to be the likely end of a now eight-game Under streak. But this number is not just low from Portland's perspective; it's also low for the Bulls too as they're giving up almost 110 PPG on the season. They've allowed more than that each of the L3 games and all of those were at home. Take the Over here. 

As I talked about in Monday's writeup on Blazers-Knicks, Portland certainly doesn't have much trouble scoring as they've now averaged 114.4 points over the last five games. This despite relatively pedestrian shooting, save for the blowout of Philadelphia back on December 30th. But they haven't been above 50% in any game since and a hot shooting night is probably forthcoming. The Bulls have allowed 50% shooting in each of their last three games. Three-point shooting is a specific area where Portland should improve moving forward. Note that before the game vs. NY, the Over had been 4-0 the L4 times the Blazers had faced a team w/ a losing SU record. 

So much for defensive improvement under HC Jim Boylan. The Bulls have allowed 112, 119 and 117 pts the last three games w/ those respective opponents all shooting better than 50% from the floor against them. I look for that trend to obviously continue tonight. On offense, the Bulls haven't been attempting enough threes under Boylan, but I look for that to start changing very soon. Zach LaVine is one of the NBA's top scorers at 23.9 PPG. Bottom line here is that it's time for Portland's Under streak to expire and this number is far too low. The average number of PPG scored in both teams' games YTD exceeds what the number is here. 10* Over Bulls/Blazers 

10* UC Riverside (10:00 ET): I don't understand the way this line is moving - at all. The home team (UC Riverside) is clearly the better side here, yet not even getting the "token" respect one deserves when playing in their own gym. Perhaps this is because Cal State Northridge comes in on a 5-0 ATS run. But the Matadors have dropped B2B games SU, losing by five at San Diego State, then by four at home to Yale. Those close calls may very well have taken something out of it the Matadors (especially the Yale game as it went to OT) heading into tonight's Big West opener where UC Riverside will be primed for a big performance. 

Recently, I took UC Riverside in a big spot and they delivered. It was here at home, December 22nd, against a Loyola Marymount team that had lost only one game all season. As nine-point dogs, the Highlanders delivered for me in a major way, winning outright 60-53. Then came one of the more brutal B2B road games I've seen any team have to play all season. Wrapping up 2018, they had to play at Air Force and Western Michigan in a three-day span. That's quite a bit of holiday travel and sure enough the Highlanders dropped both games. But upon returning home last week, they crushed Bethesda (non-DI school) 112-47 in a "tune up" for conference play. 

UC Riverside is 5-1 SU at home this season, allowing just 59 PPG. That's a far cry from the kind of defense Cal State Northridge plays as they're allowing 83.6 PPG this season (345th in the country!). Again, neither of these teams are going to be cutting down the nets in March, but I just don't see how you can make the case that the home team isn't the better side here and should be priced as such. Cal State Northridge is outside my top 300 for crying out loud, so expecting them to win on the road seems a bit foolish to me. If they end up closing as a road favorite here, it would mark the 1st time all season for them in that role. A key to this game could be the fact the visitors are terrible from the FT line, shooting at a 63% clip there. They're also below 30% from three-point range on the road while allowing opponents to shoot almost 40%. 10* UC Riverside

8* Memphis (8:05 ET): Talk about two teams that have experienced very different fortunes at the betting window recently. San Antonio has covered seven in a row as well as 14 of its last 16 games (also 13-3 SU over that same timeframe). Memphis, on the other hand, is a putrid 1-12 ATS its L13 games, also losing 11 of those straight up. Both streaks are something you don't see very often, thus this confluence has me thinking "regression to the mean" tonight as one is due not to cover and the other is long overdue to cash. Take the points here in what shapes up as a "trap game" for the Spurs. 

This is San Antonio's second road game in three nights. They won in Detroit Monday, 119-107, covering in a similar price range. Even w/ a six-game losing streak, I have the Grizzlies rated higher than the Pistons, so that's some value right off the bat here. It was not a good start to the game for the Spurs Monday night in the Motor City as they initially trailed by eight in the 1st quarter. But even w/ the win, their record record is still just 7-12 SU for the year and how well they defend has been a big issue when comparing home and road games. At home, San Antonio allows just 103.6 PPG. On the road, they're allowing 114.3. That's one of, if not THE, biggest home vs. road split in the league. 

Something I have yet to mention is these teams did just meet in San Antonio last weekend. True to the respective recent forms, the Spurs won and covered that game, winning 108-88 as 8.5-pt chalk. While the Spurs were able to win at Detroit in the middle of this home & home, the Grizzlies went and lost at New Orleans by 19 points. I realize that it doesn't sound too good for Memphis coming into this game, but they remain one of the top defensive teams in the league, ranking 2nd in points per game allowed (102.9). If they can get the offense going tonight, then they should be in great shape. I say they will. 8* Memphis 

7* Nashville (8:05 ET): These teams currently sit at opposite ends of the Central Division. Nashville is battling out w/ Winnipeg for first place while Chicago is at the bottom w/ St. Louis. In my eyes, there's no disputing that the Blackhawks are the division's worst and should be the clear last place team. They have a -32 goal differential, which is the worst in the entire Western Conference. The come into tonight fresh off a home defeat to another division leader, that being Calgary Monday night. The Preds are seeking a bit of revenge for a 2-1 loss that took place here in the Windy City last month. 

Nashville did not have a particularly good finish to December, at one point losing six games in a row. But they won New Year's Eve in Washington (6-3) and now come into this game as winners of four of the last five. All but one of those wins came out on the road and the last two have seen them outscore Montreal and Toronto by a combined 8-1 margin. Monday marked their 5th shutout of the season as they picked up a very impressive 4-0 win over the Maple Leafs. Perhaps most impressive is that they were able to hold Toronto to just 18 shots on goal. The Preds only loss in the L5 games came in overtime and they've scored a total of 21 goals during that stretch. 

Nashville ranks #1 in the league in goals allowed per game, giving them a decided edge over a Chicago club that ranks 29th in that department. I have faded the Blackhawks w/ great regularity this season as the oddsmakers were slow to catch onto just how far they've fallen in the L2 years. While it's rare to see them priced as this big of an underdog at home, the price is more than fair. Nashville is 12-4 SU coming off a win by 2+ goals. They enter the day one-point back of idle Winnipeg (who won last night) for first in the Central, so they'll badly want these two points and get them. 7* Nashville 

8* Auburn (7:00 ET): #11 Auburn is set to begin its SEC schedule w/ a visit to Oxford to face an Ole Miss team that has been a covering machine this season. Obviously, this can be a tricky spot for Bruce Pearl's team seeing as Ole Miss has been the best ATS team in the country so far at 12-1. But it's a spot that I believe the Tigers are set up well to prevail. They're certainly well rested having yet to play a game in 2019. Conversely, Ole Miss had to play over the weekend, opening its SEC slate w/ a 10-pt road win over Vanderbilt. Auburn is one of the top teams in the country though and a great value on Wednesday's NCAAB card. Lay the points. 

I think people forget just how good this Auburn team is. They won the SEC last season. To me, they're a legit Top 10 team w/ an offense that ranks 9th in efficiency. They come in averaging 85.2 PPG on the year w/ four players averaging in double figures, led by senior Bryce Brown's 15.3 PPG. The last time they played was December 29th when they crushed North Florida 95-49 as 23-pt chalk. That's actually the ONLY game the Tigers have played in the L17 days. It ended a five-game ATS slide, but something to keep in mind is they were a DD favorite in the majority of those contests. For a team that was actually favored to win at NC State, this is a great value.

You've got to tip your cap to the job being done by HC Kermit Davis in his 1st year here at Ole Miss, but I can't help but feel the Rebels are a bit overrated coming into this game. They have won eight in a row, but none of the opponents were even close to the caliber of what awaits them tonight. The last time Ole Miss played a ranked team was November 24th and they lost to Cincinnati by double digits. They haven't lost since (8-0 SI/ATS), but I've got to come back to the fact that the Rebels were NOT expected to contend in the SEC this season. This is going to be a challenging week for them, first w/ this game, then a visit to rival Mississippi State over the weekend. Auburn won both meetings LY, including a nine-point win here in Oxford. Tonight will be a "reality check" for Ole Miss. 8* Auburn

8* New York (10:35 ET): I understand this is the type of bet that few want to make, but sometimes it's just better to "hold your nose" and take the points. Because a Golden State team that has proven to be far more vulnerable than they've been in past years is simply laying too many points tonight. I realize that the Knicks are not a good basketball team and they are playing in the second night of a back to back (lost 111-101 in Portland last night). But this is simply way too many points for the Warriors to be laying considering they're just 2-7 ATS the L9 games overall. Take the points. 

Now there's no sugarcoating the Knicks' difficulties. They have only two wins since December 1st and one of them was against the LeBron-less Lakers (last Friday). The only other win in the last 16 games came by two points, in overtime, against the Hornets. But as bad as things have been this yaer for the Knickerbockers, there have been only three losses in the 2-14 SU stretch that have come by a margin greater than what the oddsmakers are calling for here. Sure, they're playing Golden State tonight. But the Warriors should no longer be considered "head and shoulders" above the rest of the league. 

There have been two issues for Golden State this year. One was injuries, something that has largely been cleared up now. So given they're now healthier than they've been most of the season, what gives? Well, they have slipped rather dramatically on the defensive end of the floor. Over the last four years, many failed to appreciate how the Dubs were actually one of the top defensive teams in the league. This season, they've slipped to 15th in efficiency and are giving up more than 112 PPG. In their last game, they allowed Sacramento to shoot 20 of 36 from three-point range in what ended up as a record-setting display from behind the arc. The game before that, they failed to protect a 20-point second half lead vs. Houston. GSW actually enters this game on a three-game home losing streak. Just too many points to lay on a random Tuesday. 8* New York

8* San Diego State (10:00 ET): Wyoming is a team that I targeted early on (in the season) as a regular fade and quite frankly I should have continued to do so (fade them, that is) more. The Cowboys' record is now 4-11 SU, 3-11 ATS and two of those SU wins were of the two-point variety, one of them against non-DI school Dixie State. Now that I've hopefully established that the Pokes aren't a very good team, I'll let you know that they have little to no chance tonight at San Diego State. The Aztecs are looking to rebound from a bad loss at Boise State over the weekend and will be in an ornery mood. Lay the points. 

San Diego State lost by 24 up in Boise Saturday. It was their second bad loss in the last three games as they also went down in shocking fashion at home (by 19 points) to Brown the previous weekend. In between, they did beat Cal State Northridge, but failed to cover. I made the mistake of laying the points with them there, but off this loss I feel they're in better position to cover. Wyoming's power rating is still propped up by way too lofty preseason expectations that were clearly foolish. Even last year's 20-win team was just awful defensively (78.7 PPG allowed). Losing four of the top five scorers from that team was always going to be too much to overcome. 

San Diego State's is a "buy low" stock right now after two bad losses in the last 10 days. I was shocked to see how poorly the Aztecs played Saturday night in Boise. This is normally a very good defensive team. Luckily, this game is in their gym where they only allow 63.7 PPG on 38.9% shooting. Their average margin of victory at home this year is 16.5 PPG. This is what I call a "get well" game for the favorite as Wyoming is very bad and SDSU is much better than what they've shown recently. 8* San Diego State

10* Over T'Wolves/Thunder (8:05 ET): Minnesota just fired its HC (and team president) Tom Thibodeau, which I view as a bit of a curious decision as expectations are simply too high for this young team in the loaded Western Conference. The team had been better since dealing Jimmy Butler away and had even won B2B games, getting their YTD scoring differential into the black. T'Wolves star Karl Anthony Towns seemed stunned by the move as well. So I'm not sure this decision by ownership is going to have a positive impact on the team. 

Speaking of YTD point differentials, Oklahoma City has the top one in the Western Conference right now and has a real shot at finishing 1st. I think it's them, Golden State and Denver and entering play tonight, the trio is separated by just 1.5 games. Don't look for OKC to have any sympathy for Minnesota's plight as they are in off an embarrassing 116-98 loss (here at home!) to Washington Sunday night. That was a dismal offensive showing for the Thunder, who failed to score 100 pts for the first time in nearly a month. I look for a bounce back game on that end of the floor tonight as the T'wolves are not noted as a defensive team (allow 114.6 PPG on the road). 

Oklahoma City actually leads the league in defensive efficiency. Sunday night was just the fifth time they allowed more than 115 pts in a game this season. But they allowed 114 the last time they faced Minnesota, which was right before X-Mas. That game ended up being a two-point T'wolves win as both teams shot well (Minnesota was 14 of 27 from three-point range). Prior to holding the Lakers to 86 points (no LeBron) on Sunday, Minnesota had seen its L10 games all go Over the total. With Sunday marking one of Minnesota's best defensive showings of the year and one of OKC's worst offensively, it's only natural things slide back to the mean tonight. 10* Over T'wolves/Thunder 

10* NY Islanders (7:05 ET): This battle of Metro teams finds each side streaking in a positive direction, but the Islanders are both hotter and better, so I'll grab them at what looks like a very optimal price at home. Carolina has won four in a row, scoring 17 goals in the process. But goal scoring has generally been a problem for the Hurricanes as they rank dead last in the league in shooting percentage and 28th in goals per game. That's going to be a problem against tonight's opponent as the Isles, winners of six straight and 9 of 10, are #2 in goals allowed. 

I just made a play on New York last Thursday when they beat Chicago 3-2 out on Long Island. That was followed up w/ a 4-3 win in St. Louis on Saturday. HC Barry Trotz has done a remarkable job w/ this team as LY they set a new NHL record for most goals allowed in an 82-game season. As I said earlier, this year they've allowed the second FEWEST in the league. Now the win over the Blues was ugly. The Islanders were outshot 32-14 and had to rally from an early 0-2 deficit. But w/ a choice of two-red hot goaltenders, Robin Lehner or Thomas Greiss, Trotz should be able to count on his team keeping Carolina from finding the back of the net too much in this one. 

This will be the 4th meeting already this season between these teams and the Islanders have won each of the previous three. They've done so despite being outshot rather dramatically (112-59!), but that's largely the story of Carolina's season as they get a lot of meaningless shots on goal and don't convert. Their goaltender is a far bigger question mark. While the Canes have won four straight games, two were against Philadelphia and another at Ottawa (Sunday). Those are teams below them in the standings. This season, they are just 5-9 SU vs. teams w/ winning records. 10* NY Islanders 

8* Ball State (7:00 ET): Ball State is off quite the impressive win here as they went to Toledo on Saturday and easily ended the Rockets' 10-game win streak, doing so in 79-64 fashion (as 4.5-pt dogs). The Cardinals have now won and covered four in a row since suffering an outright loss to Evansville (a team they'd beaten earlier in the season) back on December 9th. They've won 9 of 10 overall since an early three-game stretch against power conference teams (Alabama, Purdue, Va Tech). They've yet to lose a game here in Muncie, winning by an average of 31.8 PPG! Sounds to me like they should roll against a bad Eastern Michigan squad Tuesday night. Lay the points. 

Do you remember the last time I faded Eastern Michigan? Maybe not as it was all the way back on November 19th. But I certainly do & it's a game Eagles' fans would just as soon forget. They set a NCAA record for offensive futility in a half, scoring just FOUR points before the break (yes, you read that correctly). They ended up losing 63-36 to Rutgers, one of the easiest bets I have ever made in my life. You would think that game would make the nadir of the season in Ypsilanti and perhaps it will be. But things have really gotten no better for EMU as they're now 1-9 ATS this season, including 0-7 as a dog. They have just two SU wins in the L9 games and both were against non-DI teams. The Eagles are 0-5 SU on the road, losing by an average of 24.2 PPG. 

Eastern Michigan's last "effort" was a 16-point home loss at Buffalo on Friday night. Before that, they lost by 24 at Kansas. Earlier in the analysis, I mentioned Ball State's tremendous MOV here in Muncie and that has a lot to do w/ them averaging 98.0 PPG at home. They are 6-2 ATS when favored this year and considering how bad Eastern Michigan has been on the road, this is really not that high of a pointspread. The Cardinals' last four wins have all been by double digits. This is also a team that went to Loyola IL (Final 4 team LY) and won last month. 8* Ball State

8* Missouri State (7:00 ET): For the lone underdog selection in this package, we turn to a Missouri State team that might be a little shorthanded (two reserves out), but is also also being undervalued. Like Eastern Michigan, the Bears are a team that struggles to win on the road. In fact, they have yet to do so in eight previous tries (1-5 ATS). Despite this, we're still looking at a team that has a positive point differential on the year (in all games). They're playing a team Tuesday (Indiana State) that they've had plenty of success against in the past. I'll take the points. 

Indiana State won over the weekend, but only by five over a bad Bradley team. That game was here in Terre Haute. Larry Bird (school's most famous alum) "ain't walking through that door" this year for the Sycamores, who are a respectable 9-5 SU, but most of their losses have come in blowout fashion. Before beating Bradley, they were destroyed by 35 at Loyola Chicago. In that game, Indiana State scored just *12* points in the first half. Things obviously went much better offensively vs. Bradley, but that was tied to the fact they attempted 47 free throws, twice the number as their opponents. It also helped Bradley was a miserable 3 of 20 from 3-pt range.

Missouri State is off a bad 82-66 loss at home to Valparaiso, a game that they were favored to win by 5.5 points. That result undoubtedly had an effect on the pointspread for this one as my numbers say these long-time Missouri Valley rivals would be close to even at a neutral setting. Missouri State played a terrible 1st half vs. Valpo, going into the break down 46-24. That was on the heels of losing a close one at Southern Illinois. I mentioned earlier that the Bears have had Indiana State's number the last couple years. They are 4-0 SU against them the L2 seasons including a 19-pt win here in Terre Haute last February. They'll at least stay within the number here. 8* Missouri State

10* Over Kings/Sharks (10:35 ET): On paper, this is a game that San Jose should win easily. But if you've looked at the money line, then you already know that. The Sharks are a pretty strong club on home ice; outscoring its visitors by a full goal per game, one of only four teams in the league doing that. Only three teams in the league average a higher number of goals per game at home than San Jose. One is the historically great offense down in Tampa Bay (the other two are Calgary and Boston). But the ML is too high to play here. With the Sharks doing most of the "heavy lifting" though, I think the Over is a far more reasonable call here. 

The Kings have plenty of issues scoring goals. They are actually dead last in the league in goals per game at 2.26. On the road, they average a putrid 1.9 gpg. That's a number that has to start going up. Saturday, LA did record a 4-0 shutout of Edmonton at home. They scored those four goals on just 23 shots, three of them coming on the first eight, which led them to chase Oilers' goalie Mikko Koskinen in the first period. But equally as key to that victory was the Kings facing only 16 shots on goal for the game. Whomever starts in goal tonight (likely Jonathan Quick) will likely be under far greater siege as San Jose averages 33.5 shots per game here at home. 

Quick hasn't exactly been his usual solid self between the pipes this year. His save percentage on the road is just .895. Recent San Jose games have been very high scoring as the last six have all seen six or more total goals scored. The L4 have averaged 10.0 total gpg! Somehow, despite being short-handed on the blue line, the Sharks were able to end the Lightning's 16-game point streak Saturday. They won 5-2 and held TB to only 20 shots on goal. Even w/ the Kings' offensive deficiencies, I expect the Sharks' injuries to catch up w/ them here. Goalie Martin Jones has a sub-.900 save percentage on the year. It's been a very long time since these SoCal rivals played to an Over, but it happens here. 10* Over Kings/Sharks

10* Over Knicks/Blazers (10:05 ET): Portland has gone Under in every game since Christmas. That's a streak of seven straight (if you're counting at home) and the Under is 14-3 their L17 games overall. That's quite the streak of Unders right there. But I look for it to end on "Championship Monday" (if you already haven't done so, pick up my side/total on Bama-Clemson!) as they're playing a Knicks team that is very bad defensively. But an additional key here is I expect a rested Knicks squad to also play better than usual on the offensive end. Take the Over. 

Portland is a little better defensively at home than they are on the road (not uncommon in this league). But that will be offset here by the fact they also average more PPG at home (again, not uncommon). Total PPG in Blazers' home games isn't all that different from the road. They come into this game having not shot the ball particularly well any of the L3 games. Yet they've still scored at least 109 pts in each, including 110 in an impressive win over the Rockets Saturday night.  For the year, they average 113.6 PPG at home on better than 46% shooting from the field.

I look for the Blazers to have a break out offensive game here against a Knicks team that simply cannot defend. New York ranks 29th in the league in defensive efficiency and gives up 117.0 PPG on the road. When you look back and see that they just beat the Lakers on Friday (snapping an 8-game losing streak), 119-112, take note LA played that game w/o the services of LeBron James, Kyle Kuzma and Rajon Rondo. Against some evidence to the contrary, I do expect NY to shoot well in this game. They're only at 38.6% from the field the L5 games, which is a really low number that is due to go up. Being rested is huge as the Knicks are 7-1 Over this season when playing on exactly two days rest. They are also 9-2 Over against the Western Conference this year. The Over is 3-0 their L3 games and when these teams met in MSG back in November, it was a 118-114 final (in favor of Portland). 10* Over Knicks/Blazers 

10* Clemson (8:00 ET): This is the 4th year in a row that Alabama and Clemson are meeting in the College Football Playoff and third time in those four years to determine the National Champion. The schools split the two prior Championship Games w/ Bama winning 45-40 in 2016 and then Clemson returning the favor 35-31 one year later. The Tigers covered the spread (as underdogs) both times before the Crimson Tide largely dominated LY's CFP semifinal matchup, winning 24-6 as 3.5-pt chalk. But the starting QB for each team will be different this time around with Tua starting for Alabama and Trevor Lawrence starting for Clemson. To me, Clemson has proven itself to be Alabama's equal over the past several seasons and should be priced as such. I'm taking the points.

Clemson had an even easier time than I anticipated w/ Notre Dame in the semifinals, rolling to a 30-3 win. I felt they deserved to be DD favorites in the game, but it was clear that ND didn't even belong on the same field. They outgained the Fighting Irish 538-248 and consider it was a 23-3 game at halftime, so the final score easily could have been even more lopsided. Clemson ended the game by kneeling inside the red zone and earlier fumbled at the ND 12-yard line. Lawrence completed 27 of 39 passes for 327 yards and three touchdowns as the offense has clearly become more dynamic w/ him as the starter. He left his 1st start (vs. Syracuse) due to injury, but has since played every game. Clemson has won those games by 60, 34, 49, 61, 20, 29, 21, 31 & 27 pts! My goodness! 

That's an average margin of victory of 36.8 PPG w/ no final score closer than 20 points. And this team is an underdog? It's a role they are rarely in Perhaps most shocking of all from the Notre Dame game is that the defense didn't even skip a beat despite playing w/o All-American Dexter Lawrence. I know everyone is going to want to talk Tua and the Bama offense, which has earned the right to be called the best ever of the Saban era in Tuscaloosa. But Clemson will be the best defense they have seen all year and is the only defense better than their own. Over the last four seasons, Clemson has lost only four times, three of those coming by five points or less. I know that Alabama is responsible for two of those four losses, including the one that was by more than five points, but these teams are basically equals coming into this game. 10* Clemson 

8* Under Clemson/Alabama (8:00 ET): This is the 4th time in 4 years that these schools are facing off in the College Football Playoff. It will be the third time they're playing to determine the National Championship. Alabama won the first go-around, 45-40 in 2016, a game which featured a 40-point fourth quarter. A year later, Deshaun Watson & Clemson returned the favor, winning 35-31 on a last second TD. Last year, they met in the semifinal round and Bama won handily, 24-6. There is no doubt that Clemson is a better team this year w/ Trevor Lawrence at QB. Alabama also has a different QB than last year as Tua Tagovailoa, who remember didn't come in until LY's Champ Game vs. Georgia. But despite the new QBs, don't expect scoring to be on the level of the 2016 or even 2017 games. Take the Under here. 

I was on the Over in both of those previous Bama-Clemson National Championship Games. The offenses now, particularly Alabama's (best ever under Saban?), are better. I was also on the Over in LY's Bama-Georgia Champ Game,  which ended up being a lucky winner (OT), but I argued that the respective offenses were being undervalued coming into that game. This year, I think it's the defenses that are being undervalued. Clemson is #2 in the country in scoring defense (13.7 PPG allowed) and #3 in efficiency. Alabama is #4 in scoring (14.8 PPG allowed) and #1 in efficiency. So let's not make the mistake of forgetting about those two units, OK?

Despite not having Dexter Lawrence, the Clemson defense gave up next to nothing to Notre Dame in the semifinal matchup. I had the Under in that game as the Tigers rolled to a 30-3 victory, giving up just 248 total yds of offense. Now, it will obviously not be that easy here. But aside from that perplexing performance vs. South Carolina, this Clemson defense has not allowed more than 16 points since September. Not to be outdone, Alabama just held the nation's top offense (Oklahoma) well under its season average in PPG. The 34 pts allowed in the semfinal actually marked a season high for the Crimson Tide, but given the opponent that's actually an admirable number. It was also just the third time all year they allowed more than 23 points. Eight times, they allowed 17 pts or less. I expect this game to be much lower scoring than expected. 8* Under Clemson/Alabama

10* Wisconsin (7:30 ET): There's never a good time to lose your coach (more on that in a moment), but for Penn State today is most inopportune as they'll be facing an angry Wisconsin team that is coming in off B2B losses. Nittany Lions HC Pat Chambers will not be on the bench here as he is suspended for shoving freshman Myles Dread in a heated altercation during the team's 68-55 loss at Michigan Thursday. It has already been a disappointing season in Happy Valley w/ Penn State starting just 7-7 SU overall, including an 0-3 mark in Big 10 play. I'm shocked they are listed in the pick 'em range here. 

Both of Wisconsin's recent losses came as favorites. The more shocking of the two was two Saturdays ago at Western Kentucky. But, for what it's worth, that was a road game and WKU had already beaten one ranked team this year in Bowling Green (West Virginia). The Badgers allowed 67.8% shooting in the second half of the game, which pretty much means you'll lose to anybody. Then, on Thursday, they couldn't buy a bucket in Madison as they lost 59-52 to Minnesota. That game saw them score only 14 pts in the 1st half and they killed themselves at the FT line where they finished the game just 7 of 17.

As they showed vs. Minnesota, the defensive issues that cost Wisconsin against WKU are certainly correctable. This is still a top 20 team nationally in defensive efficiency, mind you. So is Penn State, but their defense is likely to suffer in a game where they're playing w/o their head coach. The Badgers won here LY, holding the Nittany Lions to 35% shooting, including 2 of 14 from three-point range. I would have made them around a three-point favorite here even if Chambers was coaching this game for PSU. But he's not and I look for the Nittany Lions to drop to 0-4 ATS in conference play this season. Penn State has been pretty dreadful on offense this season, shooting below 40% in Big 10 play and just 32.1% for the year from three-point range. 10* Wisconsin

10* Under Heat/Hawks (6:05 ET): Even though they were double digit dogs, Atlanta was a pretty easy target for me Friday night in Milwaukee as that particularly matchup would certainly qualify as one of the biggest mismatches in the entire league right now. Sure enough, it was every bit the mismatch I thought it would be, if not even more so. The Hawks were completely buried, losing 144-112 as the Bucks shot 55.0% for the game and had two 40+ pt quarters. It was a 43-14 game at the end of the 1Q and was never close from there. Tonight, Atlanta is at least back home where they'll host division rival Miami, another team that has been playing quite well of late.

The Heat have won 8 of 10 w/ one of the two losses coming by a single bucket vs. Toronto. The team's latest win came Friday against the Wizards (no John Wall, remember) 115-109. It was the sixth straight Miami game to go Over the total. In the last five, they are averaging 111.6 PPG, which is well above their YTD average of 107.2. They've also shot a blistering 49% from the field, which is well above their season average of 43.9% (one of the lowest FG%'s in the league). So the Heat are due to "cool off" (pun intended!) and while I know it's hard to say that it will come here, given what the Bucks just did to the Hawks, I think regression to the mean offensively is all but inevitable for Miami. 

These teams have met twice before this year and both games did go Over. But in those two games, it was Atlanta that shot surprisingly well and thus they have won both games. I don't look for the Hawks to be that prolific tonight as they too rank near the bottom of the league in field goal percentage and they are also 29th in the league in offensive efficiency. Interesting about Miami's recent rash of Overs is they have actually held half of the opponents to 94 pts or fewer! Every O/U line has been significantly lower than the one here w/ five of them at 207 pts or lower. We've got plenty of "wiggle room" here as only the last game (vs. the Wizards) would have gone Over this total. 10* Under Heat/Hawks

7* Washington (5:05 ET): The Capitals could really use two points here as they've dropped three in a row, leaving them in a first place tie w/ the red hot Penguins for 1st in the Metro. Fortunately, today finds the Caps in Detroit where they'll be facing a downtrodden Red Wings club they've already beaten twice this season (both times in D.C.). The Wings did just beat Nashville here on home ice Friday, but prior to that overtime win, they'd lost six in a row. This is Washington's 1st three-game losing streak of the season. They're 5-1 SU the L2 years when on such a streak and they should easily snap this one here in the Motor City.

After taking a couple of ugly losses against Nashville (6-3) and St. Louis (5-2), the reigning Stanley Cup Champs at least played a little better Friday night in Dallas. That game went to OT and while the Caps lost 2-1, they did outshoot the Stars 37-29. HC Todd Reirden called it the team's "best 2nd and 3rd (periods) in awhile." I think it's also important to remember that prior to this three-game skid, Washington had won 9 of 10 games, the lone loss coming to Pittsburgh. They remain 6th in the league in goals per game. 

Detroit is a bottom five team in the league for me. Even though they were able to snap their losing streak Friday vs. Nashville, that was a game they trailed 2-0 early. Now Red Wings fans will want to point to the fact their team BLEW similar leads in their two previous losses. But the bottom line is this team is simply not on the Capitals' level. Neither goaltender has played well recently and the Wings are just 2-11 SU at home this season if the O/U line is 6.0 or higher. They are 26th in the league in goals allowed and that simply "won't fly" against a team like the Capitals. 7* Washington

10* Chicago (4:40 ET): I played the Bears in the very 1st game of the NFL season, the Hall Of Fame Game in August. In my analysis for that matchup, I said "I view the Bears as a potential darkhorse in the NFC North this season" and that you shouldn't be surprised if they end up making the playoffs. Well, that was one heck of a premonition and it turns out the team was even better than I thought they would be, rolling to the NFC North crown w/ a 12-4 SU record. I'm still not sure I'm sold on second-year QB Mitchell Trubisky, but Matt Nagy was a homerun hire as the head coach and the defense is one of the best in the league. Something else to keep in mind is that I fashioned Chicago as a potential darkhorse BEFORE they acquired Khalil Mack, which happened right before the start of the reg season and obviously made the stop unit even more formidable. 

Coming off its Super Bowl run last year, I think most were anticipating somewhat of a modest "step back" for the Eagles in 2018. Virtually everything went right for them a season ago, save for the Carson Wentz injury, but even then Nick Foles came in and played the best football of his career. Fast forward to one year later and Foles is again the starter heading into the postseason as Wentz is hurt again. Though Foles did win the Super Bowl LY, I don't think this is the scenario anyone in Philly wanted coming into the year. Quite frankly, the Eagles are pretty lucky to have even made the playoffs as they looked pretty much "left for dead" following a second loss to Dallas in Week 14. But they rattled off three straight victories w/ Foles starting at QB and that was enough to make it in a weak NFC.

I realize that Philly fans have convinced themselves that they're better w/ Foles at QB than w/ Wentz, but at the end of the day this Eagles team is simply not as good as LY nor are they as good as the Bears. Recall that last season, the Eagles entered the playoffs as the #1 seed in the NFC and thus had homefield advantage. Now, they're the 6-seed and on the road. At this time last year, people were writing them off w/ Foles as the starter. Now they seem to be getting too much credit. Chicago is the much better team defensively in this matchup and the gap on offense isn't particularly great. Even last season, this Eagles' defense struggled on the road. The Bears are 7-1 SU at home this year and covered 12 of their 16 regular season games overall. They also led the league in takeaways. 10* Chicago

8* Fresno State (10:00 ET): FSU is a team I won w/ earlier in the week as they went to San Jose State and blew out the Spartans 73-53 as 14.5-point favorites. As I mentioned in that analysis, the Bulldogs were coming off a very embarrassing loss to Utah Valley State (were 10-pt home favorites) as they shot a dreadful 34% from the field. As expected, they bounced back in a major way against one of the worst defensive teams in the country. They wasted little time in gaining an early lead as they shot better than 60% from the floor in the 1st half and took a 22-pt lead into the break. From there, it was smooth sailing. I believe Fresno State is likely to consider its mastery of the Mountain West tonight as they're back at home. Lay the points.

Colorado State might be a little stronger than San Jose State, but they still should not present much of a challenge to FSU. The Rams come into this game having dropped eight of nine, including four straight. Their lone win during that stretch came at the expense of Sam Houston State. The last four losses have been a particularly brutal streak for CSU as three of the defeats have been by five points or less. But even w/ those close calls, I don't expect them to compete here as Fresno State is a much tougher opponent than what the Rams have faced recently. Last year, they came to this building and lost by 21 when priced similarly by the oddsmakers. 

Fresno State is putting together an impressive season at 10-3 SU. The loss to Utah Valley State right before the New Year is the only time they've been beaten at home. Their other two losses were to Miami and TCU, both by single digits. All but one of their wins have come by double digits and at home they're winning by an average of 17.3 PPG. Offensively, they have been very sharp, averaging nearly 80 PPG. Colorado State has been a sieve defensively, giving up almost 80 PPG. This is a second road game in four nights for the Rams and they may very well be spent after taking another close loss at UNLV Wednesday (blew 10-pt second half lead). They are ripe for the "pickin'" here. 8* Fresno State 

10* Over UTSA/UTEP (9:00 ET): In a bit of a weird scheduling quirk, these teams are playing each other in B2B games. As the underdog, I thought UTEP was a solid value Thursday night on the road. I was wrong. The Miners lost 75-60 (even though they'd been bet down all day) on what was an absolutely dreadful shooting night for them (34.0 FG%). Here at home, I'm obviously expecting a much better offensive performance. But what really sticks out to me here is the total. These teams have gone Under against one another the last 10 times they've played! I think that streak comes to an end tonight. Take the Over. 

Not only do these C-USA rivals have a history of going Under against each other, both have primarily been Under teams all season. UTSA has gone Under in 8 of its 10 lined games this year and UTEP isn't far behind at 7-2 Under. In fact, 21 of the Miners' last 30 home games have stayed Under. Since December 1st, UTSA has played in four games where the oddsmakers posted an O/U line. All four stayed Under. UTEP is 4-0 Under its last four games as well. This is highly irregular, obviously. Note that despite the terrible shooting by the Miners Thursday, the game still nearly went Over, only falling short by seven points. 

UTSA hardly shot the ball well two nights ago as they finished the game barely above 40.0% from the field. So they too are likely due for an "uptick" offensively in this quick rematch. They're also due for a downswing defensively. Before allowing just 50, 67 and 60 pts the L3 games (all wins), the Roadrunners were routinely giving up 74+ points. This total is low for them as many of their previous O/U lines this season were north of 150 points. They are averaging almost 75 points per game while giving up nearly 74 PPG. The simple laws of regression (to the mean) tell me that we are in store for an Over in El Paso tonight! 10* Over UTSA/UTEP

8* Seattle (8:15 ET): Reports of the Seahawks' demise this year turned out to be greatly exaggerated as here we are in January and another Russell Wilson-led team is in the playoffs. Make no mistake about it, this clearly is a Wilson-led outfit. Part of the reason, many (myself included) were so skeptical of Seattle coming into the season was that the famed "Legion of Boom" (secondary) had been disassembled and then to make matters even worse, the one holdover (Earl Thomas) got injured early in the year. The team started 0-2, but then went onto win 10 of its last 14 games, a streak which began in Week 3 w/ a win over ... the Cowboys. Two of their four losses were to the Rams (by a total of 7 pts) and another was to a 12-4 Chargers team. 

Dallas is another somewhat surprising playoff entrant. America's Team also got off to a slow start as they were just 3-5 at the midway point of the regular season. But in their case, it's easy to see what led to the turnaround, that being the acquisition of WR Amari Cooper from Oakland. Coming into the year, it was thought the Cowboys had the worst receiving corps in the league. But Cooper quickly changed that, giving QB Dak Prescott a viable weapon on the outside. Ezekiel Elliott also led the league in rushing yards. Credit should also be given to a Cowboys defense, which is legit one of the best in the league as it ranks seventh in yards and sixth in points allowed. Another key factor is that Dallas went a league-best 8-2 SU in close games (7 pts or less). Over the 2nd half of the season, they were 7-1 SU and every win was by 8 pts or fewer. 

While Elliott may have the individual lead in rushing yardage, no TEAM ran for more yards this year than Seattle. The Seahawks' offense ran for 160 YPG during the regular season, nearly 38 more than Dallas did. Both of these teams finished w/ 10-6 SU records, but Seattle had a +81 point differential while Dallas was only +15. The regular season meeting was in Seattle, but a change in homefield isn't enough to flip the result in my view. This will be the 4th meeting between the two teams since 2015. In the previous three, Dallas has failed to score more than 13 points and they've lost them all, one at home just last year. The Cowboys have never won a playoff game under HC Jason Garrett (0-2) and Seattle has covered five straight times as an underdog, winning three of those games outright. I also happen to trust Wilson more than Prescott in this situation. The better team is getting points. 8* Seattle

10* Over Jazz/Pistons (7:05 ET): It wasn't necessarily easy for Utah last night (trailed Cleveland at the half), but a strong second half propelled them to a 117-91 win and cover. Still a game under .500 for the year, they desperately need to keep winning as the Western Conference is as loaded as ever this year. One thing that does speak well for their future is that they own the West's fifth best YTD point differential. As I've said many times before, point differential is typically a far better predictor of future outcomes than is a team's actual win-loss record. I do expect the Jazz to start making a move up the standings. 

But with tonight being the second game of a back to back, I'm not quite as optimistic on the Jazz's chances in the Motor City. The total does look awfully low, however, and that has me thinking Over. Taking advantage of the league's worst defensive team (Cavs) last night, Utah shot 51% from the floor and scored 117 points. But that point total has not been atypical of late. It was the 4th time in the last 5 games that Utah scored at least 116. The Pistons team it will be facing tonight has had defensive issues of its own of late. On a recently completed four-game road trip, they allowed two opponents to shoot 60% from the field!

The Pistons were able to avoid a winless trip by winning a low-scoring game at Memphis Wednesday night, 101-94. Detroit is not the prettiest shooting team in the league by any means as Wednesday marked the sixth time in the last seven games that they posted a FG% below 44.0. But perhaps they'll break out here against a Utah team that does often struggle to defend on the road (FG% allowed of 46.5). When looking at each team's season scoring average, in terms of points scored and allowed, both are in excess of tonight's total. An "average" game thus should land us Over the total and I think we'll get more than average here tonight. 10* Over Jazz/Pistons

10* Houston (4:35 ET): The AFC South rivals have never met before in the postseason, but one thing they do have in common is that each rallied back from a poor start to the regular season. Houston won the division despite starting 0-3 while Indianapolis was pretty much left for dead at 1-5 SU. The Texans have won 11 of their last 13 games and the Colts have won 9 of 10, so we've got two red hot teams here. Being that they are division rivals, they met twice in the regular season. Each was victorious on the other's field w/ Houston's 37-34 OT win in Indy actually being its first win of the season and the Colts' 24-21 win in Week 14 being one of the two times the Texans have lost since then. The Colts have had the edge historically over the Texans, including a 9-4 SU, 9-3-1 ATS mark the L13 meetings. But I just don't see how Houston isn't getting more credit for being the home team here. I'll take the points. 

Let's look back at the two regular season meetings, shall we? The first meeting in Indy actually saw the Texans race out to an 18-point lead early in the 2nd half before letting the Colts back in. The Colts tied the game w/ a TD + 2-pt conversion in the final minute of regulation, capping off an 85-yard drive. Andrew Luck actually wound up throwing the ball 62 times for a career-high 464 yards as he was forced to play "catch up." That was the most points given up by the Texans' defense all season. This is a group that allows only 19.7 PPG for the season, including 17.0 at home. 

The second meeting in Houston saw the Colts largely control from start to finish. They again put up over 430+ yards against JJ Watt and company, but I think the third time will be the charm for this Texans' defense. I just don't see the road team winning on the field for a third straight time in a division rivalry. In their 9-1 run to end the regular season, the Colts were pretty fortunate to play a lot of bad teams and remember they were shutout (at Jacksonville) in their only loss. The last two weeks saw them have to rally back from a double digit deficit to beat the 5-11 Giants at home, then they were the beneficiaries of getting to face Tennessee having to start Blaine Gabbert at QB in a "play-in game." Houston is the better team and at home, thus they should be priced accordingly. 10* Houston 

7* Minnesota (1:05 ET): The Wild need to keep winning as they are not only rapidly falling behind the top four in their own division (Central), but also are four points back of the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference. One positive sign for them is that unlike the three teams (all from the Pacific) in front of them, Minnesota has a positive goal differential on the year. They've faced a very challenging schedule of late and a five-game losing skid in December certainly did them no favors. But today, they get to face an Ottawa team that is as bad as any in the league. I look for the Wild to come through in this matinee.  

Considering they've recently won games at both Winnipeg and Toronto, this game should be an easy two points for the Wild. Thursday saw them prevail 4-3 in Toronto. Goaltender Devan Dubnyk led the way w/ 38 saves as Minnesota rallied back from deficits of 2-0 and 3-2. This is a team that ranks in the top 10 (8th) in goals allowed, plus they are top eight on the power play and in penalty killing as well. I believe they're poised for a second half surge even w/ the loss of defenseman Matt Dumba. Dubnyk has a terrific .922 save percentage when the team is short-handed and can keep the Wild in any game. 

Meanwhile, Ottawa isn't going anywhere. They have the dubious distinction of having allowed the most shots and goals in the league so far. The Senators already lost down in Minnesota this year, 6-4, which was the fifth straight time they've tasted defeat at the hands of the Wild. This team also now has the worst goal differential in the sport (-34). I think that it's pretty fair at this point to call the Sens the worst team in the league. They come into Saturday as losers of six in a row and have given up 28 goals during that span. Their last game was as disheartening as it gets as they rallied late against Vancouver to force OT, only to still lose. This game is a "must have" for Minnesota and I think they get the job done. 7* Minnesota

8* Oklahoma City (10:35 ET): In looking at this matchup, I was pretty shocked to learn that the Thunder are just 1-7 SU/ATS the L8 meetings, including an 0-4 SU/ATS mark here in Portland. That doesn't make a lot of sense to me considering the two teams have been relative equals during that stretch. Is there something that the Blazers specifically do that gives OKC trouble? I don't think so. It should be pointed out that virtually all of the games have been close w/ Portland winning four times by five points or less. One thing that I do know is that the Thunder are certainly the better team this season. They lead the league in defensive efficiency & are tops in the Western Conference in point differential. Tonight, I look for them to break their losing streak here in the Pacific Northwest.

OKC comes in having won 7 of 10 w/ the three losses coming by a total of eight points. On Wednesday, they downed the LeBron-less Lakers 107-100 as 5.5-pt road chalk, led by Paul George's 37 points. That game also saw PG Russell Westbrook set a dubious honor w/ the worst shooting percentage in a game (3 for 20) by an individual player that finished w/ a triple double. Westbrook has been struggling w/ his shooting for awhile now, but it has hardly mattered as George is averaging 33.0 points the L10 games. Eventually, Westbrook (the NBA's assist leader) is going to get his shot back. As mentioned above, one area that the Thunder aren't having much difficulty in is defense as they are the ONLY team in the league currently NOT allowing a full point per possession. 

Portland, like OKC, is in off B2B wins and won 7 of its last 10 overall. I actually took them on New Year's Day in a 113-108 overtime win in Sacramento. That game saw the Blazers blow a 14-point halftime lead and need to rally late just to force OT. Virtually all of Portland's recent wins, save for one over Philadelphia who was w/o Joel Embiid, have been close. The other six have all come by seven points or less and by 26 pts total. Coupled w/ the recent history against the Thunder and I'd saw the Blazers are "due" to drop a close one tonight. Oddsmakers are somewhat "tipping their hand" here in thinking OKC is the better team and I concur. 8* Oklahoma City

10* Milwaukee (8:35 ET): The Bucks have had a favorable schedule recently and taken full advantage, winning four straight in blowout fashion (also going 4-0 ATS despite being DD favorites in every game). They've played the Knicks twice, Brooklyn and Detroit during that stretch, the last three coming here at home and every win has been by at least 14 points. As easy as that stretch sounds, tonight things look to be even easier w/ the lowly Hawks paying a visit. The Bucks now own the best win percentage (.722) and top point differential (+9.3 per game) in the league. They should roll again tonight. Lay the points. 

Atlanta is actually now ahead of three teams in the East, but that only speaks to how bad the bottom of the Conference really is this year. They'd won five of six entering New Year's Eve, but have since fallen back into their "old ways," losing the first two games of this three-game road trip that ends tonight. They lost by eight in Indiana, then by 16 in Washington (who is w/o John Wall). That last loss certainly isn't a good sign for tonight as the difference between the Wizards and Bucks is quite severe. The Hawks were outscored 26-14 in the 4Q in D.C. and now face a much better defensive team. Getting held under 100 pts by one of the worst defensive teams in the league is a bad sign as Milwaukee is top three in defensive efficiency.

The Bucks have dominated at home this year, going 17-3 SU and winning by an average of 13.8 PPG. Most of the teams they face are better than Atlanta, so I see no reason why they can't win by a margin greater than that YTD average. The Hawks are 5-16 SU on the road and give up 117.4 PPG. Not only is Milwaukee top three in the league in defensive efficiency, they also are #1 in scoring as 1st year HC Mike Budenholzer has transformed this team into an elite 3-pt shooting group. This is Budenholzer's first chance to face his former team and I suspect his current crop of players will look to make a statement on his behalf. This is about as big a mismatch as you'll find in this league as the Hawks are 29th in offensive efficiency. 10* Milwaukee

6* Nashville (7:35 ET): This is a very big mismatch on the Friday NHL card. Nashville did go through a tough stretch in December, at one point losing six in a row. But they've rebounded by winning B2B games while scoring 10 goals in the process. Making those performances even more impressive is the fact they came on B2B nights, New Year's Eve and Day. They won 6-3 at Washington (definitely impressive!) before returning home to start 2019 w/ a 4-0 shutout of the Flyers. The Predators are now 2nd in the Central w/ 50 pts, just two back of Winnipeg. 

Detroit is trending in a very different direction as they're second from the bottom in the Atlantic and don't figure to rise up anytime soon. If you recall, I just played against the Red Wings on Wednesday as they blew an early 2-0 lead at home and lost to Calgary, 5-3. That makes it six losses in a row now for them and they've blown big 1st period leads in each of the last two games. Monday vs. Florida, also here at home, they led 3-0 at the end of one period, only to lose in a shootout. As I said in my analysis for the Calgary game, the Red Wings are a clear bottom five team (in the league) in my eyes. 

With the Preds having scored 10 times in just the last two games, Detroit better be on "red alert" as they've given up a frightening number of goals recently. In just the L5 games, they've allowed 24 total and few teams can overcome that number, especially one as bad as the Red Wings. The club is 3-12 SU this season after allowing 4+ goals in its previous game and 2-11 SU after losing the previous game by 2+ goals. Nashville is 12-3-1 SU vs. the Eastern Conference this year and 11-3 SU after winning its last game by 2+ goals. Clearly the superior side in this one, they are being priced accordingly. 6* Nashville

8* Denver (10:05 ET): As I said Tuesday (when I also played against them), I'm simply not a buyer on the Kings, who have surprisingly stayed in playoff contention in a loaded Western Conference. Before the season, it was them and the Suns that were expected to be at the bottom of the Western Conference. Phoenix certainly lived up to its "advanced billing," but Sacramento is somehow a game above .500 as we approach the halfway mark of the season, which is something no one saw coming. But there are some signs that this isn't going to last, namely the fact they give up the most points per game in the Western Conference. Also, despite being a game over .500, they've been outscored by 1.7 PPG, which is the second worst differential in the West. 

Denver is at the top of the Western Conference right now, one-half game ahead of Golden State, which is a pretty remarkable achievement considering all the injuries they had to deal w/ in the Rocky Mountain city. They are now getting healthier w/ both Gary Harris Jr and Paul Millsap returning to the lineup. Harris, normally a starter, came off the bench in his return Tuesday and scored 6 pts in 20 mins. Millsap had 16 pts in the team's 115-108 win over the Knicks Tuesday, second only to Nikola Jokic's 20. The Nuggets have failed to cover five straight games, but this looks to be a tremendous value on the clearly superior side. 

Sacramento is the team now dealing with problems on the injury front as they are w/o rookie Marvin Bagley III. The OT loss to Portland (here at home) Tuesday night dropped the Kings to 4-5 SU w/o Bagley. Not having him tonight will make defending Jokic difficult and as noted earlier this is a team that already has its issues defending. Despite blowing a second half lead against Portland and losing in OT, note the Kings were actually down 14 at the half in that game. This is an even tougher opponent that they're facing tonight, one that has won seven of its last nine games overall and beat the Kings by double digits back in October. 8* Denver 

8* UTEP (8:00 ET): I don't see any real difference between these foes coming into the C-USA opener, thus I'll be taking what certainly appears to be an inflated number. Both UTEP and UTSA enter this game at a game below .500, though the host Roadrunners have played two more games. UTSA has won three in a row, but all were against clearly inferior opponents (two games not even lined). UTEP has been the better bet at the window this year as they've covered six of their last seven games, including a 76-65 win over Wyoming back on 12.22. They've been off ever since and come into this game w/ legit triple revenge for a trio of losses suffered to UTSA last season. 

Maybe it's the fact that UTEP hasn't won on the road yet that has the oddsmakers "down" on them here. But it's not as if the Miners haven't played a challenging set of road games thus far. They've visited New Mexico State, Arizona, New Mexico and Marquette. They covered the last two times on the road, including losing to Marquette by only seven. It was 12 days ago that the Miners last played, winning the 3rd place game in the Sun Belt Invitational over Wyoming. The only other time in this season they've played w/ this much rest was when they ended up beating Cal Riverside by double digits back on 12.16. The Miners have played only three games in the L30 days, so they should be extremely well-rested coming into tonight's conference opener.

The triple revenge angle is huge here as two of the three losses UTEP suffered to UTSA last year were by four points. Then, on an awful shooting night, they lost to them again in the C-USA Tournament. But I'm just "not seeing it" w/ this UTSA team right now as three of their six wins have come against non-DI opponents and their "best" win was against a Texas A&M-Corpus Christi team that I wouldn't even consider among the top 275 teams in the country. The Roadrunners boast only two double-digit scorers and shoot just 31.8% from three-point range. Though 2-0 ATS as chalk YTD, they are simply not trustworthy in this price range. Take the points. 8* UTEP

7* Montreal (7:35 ET): This is an excellent spot to fade the Canucks as they're coming off an overtime win in Ottawa last night. That game saw Vancouver blow a 3-1 lead in the third period, so they ended up expending far more energy than necessary. They outshot the Senators 45-33, got two power play goals, one from Elias Pettersson, who ended up w/ a hat trick. Getting such production tonight is highly unlikely considering they are going from facing a team that ranks dead last in the league in goals (and shots) allowed to an opponent getting its top goaltender back. 

Carey Price is expected back in goal tonight for the Habs. Before missing the last three games due to the birth of his child, he had been dealing w/ a lower-body injury for about seven weeks. "I'm feeling pretty good," Price said. "I'm going to see how things go [Wednesday night] and see how I recover going into [Thursday]. "If everything goes well, I'd imagine playing." Price's return would be huge for a Montreal club fighting for a Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. Note that if for some reason he cannot go tonight, this play is still valid. The Habs would then turn to Antti Niemi, who made 45 saves in a 3-2 win at Dallas on Monday. 

The Canadiens haven't played since that New Year's Eve victory, so unlike the Canucks, they're well rested. As I mentioned they're also desperate for two points so that they can maintain the Wild Card spot they currently hold. They come into tonight having downed Vancouver all five times the teams have played the L3 seasons. That includes a 3-2 win in British Columbia back in November. Montreal has scored a lot of goals lately (19 in the L5 games) and tends to get a lot of shots on goal (37.6 per game) here on home ice. I simply don't trust a subpar Vancouver team to get the job done in this spot. 7* Montreal

7* NY Islanders (7:35 ET): I haven't needed much of an "excuse" to play against the Blackhawks this year as I realized pretty quickly that they were in store for a shockingly poor season. Really, the decline began last year and they're now just 24-50 their L74 games overall. Initially, after they fell off LY, I thought there might be some improvement this season. But instead they've sunk even further and now own the worst goal differential in the Western Conference (-32) after taking a 4-2 loss to Boston on New Year's Day in the Winter Classic (game was played at Notre Dame Stadium). I faded the 'Hawks there and will do so again here. 

The Islanders are a hot team right now, having won four straight and seven of the last eight. Like Chicago, they fell off a bit last year. Unlike the Blackhawks, they've bounced back. Doing so after losing long-time captain John Tavares to Toronto is pretty impressive. The Isles just beat Tavares and the Leafs in a heavily hyped matchup last Saturday, 4-0. They followed that up w/ a 3-1 win in Buffalo. They now occupy fourth place in the Metro and have the fifth best goal differential in the Eastern Conference. This is a legit playoff contender and I expect them to play well through the second half of the season. 

Looking at tonight's matchup, this is the second straight game where Chicago is playing in a unique atmosphere. It was outdoors in South Bend on New Year's Day, now they head to the Nassau Coliseum, which was the old home of the Islanders. New York now plays its home games at Barclays Center, but this is one of four games they'll play in their old home out on Long Island. I can't say enough about the job done here by Isles' HC Barry Trotz, who inherited a team that set a record for futility in terms of goals allowed LY (gave up 296) and now is #1 in the league in goals allowed (just 102). Meanwhile, Chicago is 30th in the league in goals allowed per game. They are last in penalty killing as well, something the Isles' should be able to take advantage of tonight. 7* NY Islanders