10* Under Heat/Sixers (8:05 ET): The infamous "Process" isn't just working, it's exceeding all expectations at this point as Philadelphia has now won 17 straight following its 130-103 demolition of the Heat in Game 1. Keep in mind the team is still w/o Joel Embiid. It's almost impossible to play against them at this point, though it should be pointed out they actually trailed the Heat at halftime on Saturday. But the second half was all Sixers as they outscored Miami 74-43. They wound up making 18 of 28 three-pointers, a ridiculous percentage that isn't likely to be duplicated anytime soon. In fact, it was a record number of three-pointers made in a playoff game for the franchise. The Game 2 total is the highest yet for any of this season's six head to head matchups and I'm taking the Under.

Needless to say, the Heat don't give up 130+ pts very often. That has happened only two times previously this season and in both instances, they've come back to win the next time out. While you couldn't tell by watching the second half of Game 1, this was actually a top ten team in defensive efficiency during the regular season (7th). They also play at a very slow pace typically (tied for 25th overall). Among playoff teams, only San Antonio averages a fewer number of possessions per game than does Miami. The keys to Game 1 were that they allowed Philly far too many field goal attempts (95!) and that second half in which the Sixers caught fire, hitting most of those three-pointers. As stated above, a repeat performance by Philly from behind the arc is highly unlikely here. 

Incredibly, Game 1 marked the third time in the last five games that the Sixers scored at least 130 points! Prior to that, it had happened only one time all season. Something the Sixers don't get nearly enough credit for is their defense. They entered the playoffs third in the league in defensive efficiency (trailing only Boston and Utah). Quietly, Miami actually made 12 three-pointers in Game 1, shooting at a 46.2% clip. Like Philadelphia, that number should come down here in Game 2. There were also a total of 60 free throws attempted in Game 1, a high number. The Sixers are holding visitors to just 42.4% shooting for the season, so a Miami team that isn't the most explosive offensive team to begin with, should struggle here offensively. With or without Embiid (he's listed as questionable), this game stays Under the total. 10* Under Heat/Sixers

8* Run Line Washington (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Nationals at +1.5. This is an early season revenge spot for the Nats, who were swept at home by the Mets earlier this month. That has set the tone for the National League East in the early going w/ NY racing out to a red-hot 12-2 start (NL's best record) including a perfect 6-0 on the road. Meanwhile, the Nats (division favorite coming into the season) are languishing behind at 7-9, having just dropped three of four at home to the Rockies (were big ML favorites in every game). Tonight marks the 1st time all season that Washington is an underdog on the ML, which opens up an opportunity w/ the run line and I don't see them doing any worse than a one-run loss in this game. 

1st year Mets' skipper Mickey Callaway stepped into a great situation w/ this Mets team. The former Indians' pitching coach inherited a great staff that was not healthy virtually all of 2017. The rotation is at full strength right now though and the results speak for themselves. Leading the way has been ace Jacob deGrom, who has a 3-0 team start record to go along w/ a 3.06 ERA and 1.132 WHIP. Now, those numbers aren't exactly out of this world. In fact, he gave up four runs in his last start, which came against lowly Miami. He's also yet to make it past the six inning mark. deGrom is 6-4 in 13 career starts vs. Washington, last facing them in September. He did post an 11-0 KW ratio, but still lost the game. Something worth noting here, based on how we're playing this one, is that both Mets victories in the last series came by exactly one run. 

Meanwhile, Washington has blown a lead in five of its nine losses this season. They are just 1-4 in one-run games and their last two losses have come by that exact margin. Yesterday, they lost on a two-out HR hit by Colorado's Ian Desmond (former teammate!) in the top of the ninth. That happened at approximately the same time the Mets were winning in their final at-bat (on a walkoff HR). So there's been a lot of good fortune going the Mets' way and bad fortune going the Nats' way in these disparate starts to the season. Making his season debut tonight for Washington will be Jeremy Hellickson. He hasn't pitched in an official game since his final start w/ Baltimore last season. As much of an "uphill climb" as it seems to be taking on deGrom, I can't help but love this price on an underachieving Nationals team that's due to start playing better. 8* Run Line Washington (+1.5)

10* Los Angeles (10:35 ET): You rarely see any team, let alone the Kings (known for heavy puck possession) yield 56 shots on goal in a game. But that's what happened in Game 2 of this series. Yet, LA was still able to take Vegas into double overtime before falling 2-1. It was another one-goal loss in Game 1 (1-0). But as we know, the Golden Knights have had the "magic touch" in Sin City in this, their expansion season (they are now 31-10-2 SU at home). But now the scene shifts to the City of Angels and I suspect the Kings will handle their business. The current losing streak is their first since mid-February. Need I remind you that the Kings finished the regular season #1 in goals allowed and #1 in penalty killing? They will take Game 3. 

Don't forget that the Kings had to play w/o Drew Doughty, their top defensemen, in Game 2. His one-game suspension has been served and I suspect his return will provide a major boost to a team that should need no added motivation. Jonathan Quick played his heart out Friday, stopping 54 of 56 shots. The offense HAS to improve after being held to just one goal in two games + two additional overtime sessions. Keep in mind that many were predicting the Kings would win this series prior to it commencing. Though down 0-2, I think it would be grossly unfair to go writing this team off before losing a home game. 

Four of the six head to head meetings between these two this year have been decided by one goal. Three of those have gone the Golden Knights way. While they did significantly outshoot the Kings in Game 2, you could certainly say that beating them three times by just one goal is pretty fortunate. The Kings did outshoot them, 30-28, in Game 1. I really do think the fact that the Kings were #1 in goals allowed during the regular season and #1 in penalty killing matters moving forward. I've seen nothing thus far to sway from thinking it's going to be tough for the Golden Knights to score in this series, especially on the road. I look for the Kings offense to wake up here at home and the team breaks through here at the Staples Center. 10* Los Angeles 

8* Minnesota (7:05 ET): The Wild return home down 0-2 and desperate for a win. But as I mentioned in my Game 1 analysis (had Winnipeg), home ice advantage is likely to prove critical in this best of seven series. While Winnipeg was a league-best 31-7-2 on home ice in the regular season, they are just a "ho-hum" 20-13-8 on the road. And while Minnesota is only 18-20-3 on the road, they are 27-6-8 here at the XCel Center. That was the fewest number of regulation losses in the entire league during the regular season. Furthermore, while the Jets may have the highest scoring average at home in the entire league (3.8 goals per game), no team allows FEWER goals per game than do the Wild (2.17). Home ice is the key for Game 3. 

Given all of the above information, this seems like a great price on Minnesota in this spot. Let's also throw in the fact that they are 10-0 the L10 times they've been off B2B losses. For the year, they are 13-1 SU in that spot, which is pretty remarkable (only one three-game losing streak all season). So while Winnipeg has been the hot team in the Western Conference over the last month or so, let's not go writing off the Wild just yet, okay? Also impressive is how many goals the Wild are usually good for when coming off B2B losses. The last five times they've dropped B2B games, they've come back and scored no fewer than four goals each of the next time out. Throw in how stingy netminder Devan Dubnyk is at home (.927 save percentage, 23-10 record) and it seems like we have a winning combo. 

Now, I should mention how the Wild have been badly outshot in the first two games. It's an 84-37 advantage for the Jets in that area. The Wild's lone goal in Game 2 came via the power play. However, it should be noted that they only trailed 1-0 going into the third period. In Game 1, they even led in the final period following two quick goals. So as bad as they've played so far in this series and as good as Winnipeg is at home, the Wild have been right there for most of the two games. The Jets typically give up a lot more shots per game on the road while their scoring average comes down significantly. Going back to the final meeting of last season, the home team is 6-1 the last 7 head to head matchups. Can't stress the importance of home ice enough here and w/ their backs against the wall, it makes sense to go w/ the Wild here. 8* Minnesota

10* Indiana (3:35 ET): The East is wide open and because they have LeBron James, Cleveland comes in as the betting favorite to win its fourth consecutive conference crown. I suppose its not difficult to understand why. Toronto (#1 seed) has an ugly postseason history. Boston (#2 seed) has a ton of injuries, including one to their best player, Kyrie Irving. Philadelphia (#3 seed) is both young and unproven. Yet, the Cavs are no "slam dunk" this postseason in my view. They're the fourth seed for many reasons, not the least of which is they were terrible defensively in the regular season, ranking 28th in efficiency (ahead of only Sacramento and Phoenix). They were also a disaster at the betting window, going a league worst 32-49-1 ATS, including 19-43 when favored! They did sweep these Pacers in the 1st round of LY's playoffs, but three of those games were decided by six pts or less and Indiana is improved now. This will be a hard fought Game 1 and likely series. 

The Pacers surprised everyone in going 48-34 SU in the regular season. Most did not think they were going to be a playoff team when they dealt Paul George away in the offseason, but led by Victor Oladipo, here they are. They actually finished w/ a better point differential than Cleveland in the regular season, so judging by that metric, this spread is way too high. Indiana also finished tied for 12th in defensive efficiency. They did fail to cover the regular season finale (meant nothing), but note they've only failed to cover in B2B games one time since the beginning of March. 

Including last year's playoff series, Cleveland is 11-5 SU vs. Indiana the L3 seasons, but just 4-11-1 ATS. So while they usually beat the Pacers, the games are often close. True to that form, here in Cleveland, Indiana is 1-7 SU, but 6-2 ATS. Indiana won three of the four regular season matchups this year, only losing the final one when the Cavs shot a ridiculous 56.1% from the floor (and still only won by seven). I really can't stress just how bad the Cavs are on the defensive end and it's going to prevent them from winning here in the playoffs by any kind of significant margin. Also, Indiana was 4-0 SU/ATS when playing w/ three or more days rest in the regular season and actually finished w/ a winning road record. 10* Indiana

8* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): A couple things right off the bat. One, yes, I'm well aware how "ugly" of a start it has been to the season for the host Rays (who are now 3-11 after losing again yday). Two, I'm also aware of the pitching change here as it will now be Ryan Yarbrough getting the starting nod. It probably won't be a long outing for Yarbrough though as he's primarily worked as a long reliever in his big league career. Sunday actually marks his first career start. In many ways, Yarbrough being called upon here is emblematic of the Rays start to the season. Their starting rotation is in tatters w/ only three healthy arms available. That has left manager Kevin Cash to go with "bullpen" days where it's a committee-like approach and the actual starter is expected not to go deep into the game. 

The thing is that these "bullpen days" have typically produced better results than have the actual starting pitchers. The team's three healthy starters - Chris Archer, Blake Snell and Jake Faria - have combined for a 6.00 ERA this season. In the team's other games, Rays' pitching has produced a collective 1.15 ERA. Archer lasted only four innings yday in a 9-4 loss. While starting pitching will always be an important "cog" in MLB handicapping, sometimes it's still about "playing the teams" and that's what I'm doing here as I'm more concerned w/ how the Rays are looking to avoid a sweep at home. Note that while the team is an AL-worst 3-11 thus far, seven of those losses have been by one run. I think the hosts are "due" for one on Sunday. 

The Phillies have won five in a row and are three games over .500 for the first time in almost two years. They've outscored opponents almost 2:1 during the five-game run (27-14), but I remain leery of a team that just picked up its second road win of the year yday. Phillies hitters are batting a collective .188 so far away from home. I also don't know how much I'd trust starter Blake Lively in this spot, seeing as he's facing an American League lineup and just allowed five runs his last time out to a bad Cincinnati team that was sending the pitcher up to bat. I guess what I'm saying is that you can "color me skeptical" of the Phillies right now and I just can't see them pulling off a sweep on the road at this point. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Under Brewers/Mets (1:10 ET): This is the rubber match of a three-game set here at Citi Field where the home team took the series opener (I was on 'em) only for the Brew Crew to come back and win yday by a 5-1 count. Both teams are off to strong starts this season, the Mets in particular, as they lead the NL East w/ an 11-2 mark and have allowed a NL-low 41 runs. Milwaukee is 8-7, but has actually been outscored and has gone a somewhat fortunate 5-1 in one run games. For today's finale, I'm looking at the total as we should anticipate a low-scoring game w/ Noah Syndergaard pitching for the home team. The way this game is priced, you would expect the Mets to win easily, which means we likely won't have to play the bottom of the ninth either. That's always a key for the Under and the kicker is that I like the number. Take the Under. 

This will already be Syndergaard's fourth time through the rotation. So far, the team is a perfect 3-0 when he starts and you could argue that he really hasn't even been at his best yet. Last time out was his 1st quality start of 2018 as he allowed just two runs - one earned - on five hits in six innings of work. That was after going only four innings in his previous start. In his season debut, he did give up four runs, but also struck out 10 w/ zero walks. I expect a strong outing from Syndergaard this afternoon considering he's 2-0 all-time vs. Milwaukee w/ a 0.69 ERA. As we've seen throughout baseball, colder temperatures are helping the pitchers. It's expected to be cold (41 degrees) w/ the win blowing in during this game. 

Milwaukee's starting pitching is not as strong as the Mets in practice or on paper, but yday saw Chase Anderson start w/ 4 2/3 no-hit innings and become the first Brewers starter all year to make it into the seventh inning. That provided a huge respite for an overworked bullpen. Today, its Jhoulys Chacin starting and like Syndergaard, this will be his fourth start of the young season. Despite having a 2-1 TSR, Chacin's numbers are not that great, but the situation today is favorable to the pitchers and the Mets are only batting .227 in their last seven games anyway. I don't think the Mets will score many runs today, but with their pitching staff holding opposing batters to a .212 average for the season, they won't have to. Syndergaard should be dominant and again, hopefully we don't play the bottom of the ninth as avoiding those final three outs can often be the difference between an Under and an Over. 10* Under Brewers/Mets

8* Milwaukee (1:05 ET): This is not your "normal" matchup of a #2 and #7 seed in the first round of the NBA playoffs. Obviously, something must be "afoul" for me to endorse a Bucks team that was actually outscored during the regular season. If the last game of the regular season was any indication, then they clearly don't fear the Celtics as they put forth a rather shameful effort in losing 130-95 at Philadelphia. They entered that game w/ a chance to move up to sixth and possibly play either the Sixers or Cavs w/ a win. Perhaps Boston is the better matchup though. After all, the Celtics are going to be without Kyrie Irving for the entirety of the playoffs, no longer how long they last. I believe Boston is ripe for a Round 1/Game 1 upset. Take the points. 

These teams split four regular season matchups. In those four games, Bucks' superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo averaged 33.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, 5.1 assists and shot 53.9% from the field. He also averaged 10.5 free throw attempts per game. I look him to be the difference maker in the series. Clearly, if Milwaukee is to advance, it will be him carrying the team. Perhaps most telling of those four regular season matchups was the last one when Milwaukee won 106-102 on April 3rd. Antetokounmpo scored 29pts against an Irving-less Celtics team, but most encouraging of all is that the team was able to go on 11-3 and 16-4 runs while he was on the bench. Milwaukee was generally overpriced on a game by game basis in the regular season, but I like them more as dogs. 

Not only is Boston w/o Kyrie, they also don't have Gordon Hayward, Marcus Smart and Daniel Theis. It's going to take one heck of a Brad Stevens coaching job to get this team out of the 1st round, let alone further. The Celtics lost four of their last six regular season contests w/ one of the wins coming in a meaningless regular season finale against the sorry Nets. The other win was against Chicago. This team only outscored its opponents by 3.6 PPG to begin with and that includes Irving playing the majority of those games. I'm just not sure who they lean on for crunch-time scoring. Sure, the C's were #1 in the league in defensive efficiency, but the Bucks shot 54.4% from the field in the last meeting. In the second half of the season, Boston went just 8-13 SU against teams that had a winning record. 8* Milwaukee

10* New Orleans (10:35 ET): Truthfully, I was hoping these teams would be matched up w/ Oklahoma City and Utah, whom I like more than both of these two. But, "the matchups are the matchups," and let's explore what we have here. Portland is the three seed in the Western Conference even though their YTD point differential ranked just sixth in the conference and their net efficiency rating is actually tied w/ New Orleans for seventh best. Now the Pelicans had some good fortune in earning the six seed as well as they were 7-3 SU in games decided by three points or less, not to mention a somewhat preposterous 7-2 SU in overtime games (obviously some overlap there). At the end of the day, I'm just not as high on Portland as others seem to be and see them as a clear fade (when favored) here in the postseason. Take the points. 

New Orleans lost Boogie Cousins during the regular season, but they still have Anthony Davis and he alone is good enough to carry the team to a series win here. Davis was second in the league in scoring (28.1 PPG), fifth in rebounding (11.1 per game) and 1st in PER. Because of injury, he played in only two full games vs. Portland during the regular season. He dominated, scoring 36 pts both times and I don't see either of Terry Stotts' options - Jusuf Nurkic or Al-Farouq Aminu - being able to stop him here. Remember, the Blazers are down a starter as well for Game 1 as forward Maurice Harkless is still out after knee surgery. As hot as the Blazers were down the stretch, the Pelicans have gone 20-8 straight up their last 28 games overall and they were a surprisingly good road team as well, going 24-17 SU. They were even better at the pay window, going 26-15 ATS. 

None of the four regular season matchups were decided by more than 10 pts w/ the last two each decided by just four points. When these teams met roughly three weeks ago in the Big East, the Pelicans lost only 107-103 despite missing 20 of 24 three-point attempts. That's not likely to happen again as even on the road, they shoot 37.2% from distance. This is an underdog that can score (111.7 PPG) making it difficult to lay points against them and in all due respect to Damian Lillard, the Pelicans will have the best player on the floor. Over its final regular season games, New Orleans averaged a whopping 121.2 PPG while Portland averaged just 98.4 PPG. In particular, the Blazers' three-point shooting was bad down the stretch. In fact, over the last 15 games, they are shooting less than 25% from behind the arc in the 4th quarter. That could come back to haunt them here as the Pelicans should easily stay within the number and possibly pull the outright upset. 10* New Orleans

10* LA Dodgers (9:10 ET): What is in the water in the National League West. The D'backs beat the Dodgers again last night, 8-7, thus improving to 4-0 in the season series. Los Angeles may have gone to the World Series last year, including a quick three-game sweep of Arizona in the LDS. However, they have now lost TEN straight times to their division rival in the regular seasons! Arizona is off to its best start in franchise history (now 10-3), but I expect them to start regressing quickly, even if the numbers don't necessarily bear that out. They failed to avenge the earlier season sweep yday, but after a late rally ultimately fell short, I believe the Dodgers will do so today. Take them in what is a big-time spot.

Last night saw Arizona jump all over LA starter Kenta Maeda, scoring five times in 2 2/3 innings. It was 7-2 before you knew it and they held on for an 8-7 win, their fourth victory of the season by exactly one run. Allowing the opponent to score first has been a major problem for the Dodgers so far this season as they are 0-7 when that happens. So starting strong tonight is of the utmost importance. They'll hand the baseball to Rich Hill, who thus far has only faced the Giants twice. He was far more impressive the first time around, which is not that surprising, and the good news is that start came at home. He allowed just five hits in six scoreless innings. While his career record vs. Arizona is not that great, Hill has limited their hitters to just a .238 average. I realize that the D'backs have eaten up southpaw starters thus far (6-0 against them!), but I do not see that continuing here. 

Hill will be opposed here by Taijuan Walker, who pitched well in both visits to Chavez Ravine last season. But the LA native wasn't nearly as sharp when he faced them earlier this month at Chase Field as he surrendered three runs in five innings of work. Just like Hill struggled more in the second go around against the Giants, I expect the same here from Walker against the Dodgers. It does appear as if the home team is picking things up at the plate as they've now scored a total of 13 times in the last two games. It is obviously very difficult to continue beating the same opponent time after time, especially if it's a division rival. The fact that Arizona has now beaten the Dodgers 10 straight times in the regular season makes little sense to me and I have to believe the home team is ready to claim its revenge here tonight. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Over Wizards/Raptors (5:35 ET): While they're the top seed in the Eastern Conference, Toronto probably isn't feeling too good about itself heading into the playoffs as they went just 7-6 SU their final 13 regular season games and were far worse at the pay window. Still, they'd built up enough of a lead that holding onto the top spot was not a problem (Boston injuries certainly helped) and their dominance at home during the regular season has to at least have them feeling good. No team in the league outscored its opponents by larger margin at home than did the Raptors (+10.4 PPG), who averaged an impressive 112.2 PPG here. They were third in the league in offensive efficiency (tops in the East) and only Houston and Golden State averaged more points per game. 

Washington is not exactly a defensive stalwart as they allow over 106 PPG. With John Wall missing significant time, the Wizards slid all the way down to the 8th spot, drawing this tough 1st round matchup. If there is any shred of hope here, it comes in the form of the fact Toronto has been just atrocious in Game 1's throughout their franchise history. They've lost 10 straight Game 1's going all the way back to to the 2001 Eastern Conference Semifinals. They've also lost nine straight playoff openers. But the Wizards are a big underdog here for a reason as they have dropped five of six and are just 7-14 their L21 games overall. They do have Wall back, so they're a better team now than they were for most of that stretch. 

These teams met four times in the regular season, splitting the quartet of games. Three of the four went Under as have each of the last five meetings here North of the Border. But I look for a far different result here in Game 1 of this best of seven series. Today's total is lower than three of those four regular season meetings and these are two teams that shoot the ball well (both above 46.7% from the field), including from three-point range. The Raptors actually held two of their last five opponents below 80 pts, which is highly irregular as for the year they're giving up 103.9 PPG. As mentioned before, Washington gives up even more. DeMar DeRozan had a career year and I can see him having a big game in this spot. One key for the Wiz is that they shot 37.5% or better from three-point range in three of the games against the Raptors in the regular season. 8* Over Wizards/Raptors

10* Over Avalanche/Predators (3:05 ET): The top-seeded Preds took Game 1 by a score of 5-2, breaking the game open in the third period w/ three goals. The President's Trophy winners actually trailed early, both 1-0 and 2-1. Yet, this series is being very much priced as if the oddsmakers are anticipating a sweep as Nashville comes into Game 2 as a monster favorite on home ice. Obviously, they're "unplayable" at the current price, but the Over provides us w/ a solid value. These teams have a history of going Over against one another as 12 of the last 15 head to head meetings have gone that well, including each of the last four. Nashville has scored at least four goals in six of its last seven games overall. Take the Over. 

Colorado absolutely appears "up against it" tonight as they were not a good road team during the regular season. They went 15-19-7 SU away from home before dropping Game 1 and remember they are w/o their top goaltender, Semyon Varlamov, who is done for the season due to injury. The Varlamov injury puts alot of pressure on backup Jonathan Bernier, whose individual performances on the road do not exactly inspire as he has an .896 save percentage for the year. As a team, the Avs give up 3.4 goals per game away from home and among playoff teams, they allow one of the highest shot totals per game as well. It's difficult to imagine Nashville not scoring multiple times here in Game 2. The Over is also 31-17 this season when Colorado is playing w/ revenge. 

Nashville averages 3.5 goals per game at home for the year, so again, we know they'll get theirs. They may not score five times again like they did in Game 1, but we also probably won't need them to. Colorado also came into this series w/o the services of top defensemen Erik Johnson, which obviously hurts on the backend. At the same time, it's also difficult to imagine Colorado going 0 for 3 on the power play again. The Avs ranked 8th when on the man advantage during the regular season, so that was a big disappointment in Game 1. But the team does have to be encouraged somewhat by being able to take an early lead. The Avs did rank 10th in the legaue in goals per game during the regular season overall. I look for another high scoring affair here in Game 2. 10* Over Avalanche/Predators

8* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Enough is enough, Cubs! The team lost again Friday, 4-0 to Atlanta, dropping a game below .500. It was already the third time this season that they have been shutout and the fifth game they were held to one run or fewer. Yu Darvish's Wrigley debut was spoiled yday as the game basically turned on one inning, the fifth, when a Darvish balk opened the door for the Braves' only scoring of the game. Three of the four runs came via one swing of the bat, a Preston Tucker home run. That one inning was more than enough as the Cubs were three-hit by Atlanta starter Anibal Sanchez. Fortunately though, the Braves have not performed well when coming off a shutout win. They are just 3-12 in that role the L3 seasons and lost once earlier this year in that situation, getting shutout themselves. 

I like what I saw from Jose Quintana his last time out and thus will go w/ him today. The Cubs starter tossed six shutout innings of three-hit ball on Sunday, striking out six, as the team beat Milwaukee 3-0. That was a dramatic improvement from his first start where Quintana allowed six runs. Today marks his 1st start of the season at Wrigley. Down the stretch last year, Quintana was excellent, posting a sub-1.00 ERA his final eight starts. Yes, the team did lose both times he started in the postseason, but he was also opposing Clayton Kershaw. Quintana has won both of his career starts vs. Atlanta, who isn't exactly hitting the cover off the baseball either right now. Over the first seven games of this road trip, Braves hitters are batting a collective .230 and averaging just 3.4 runs per game. 

It's pretty shocking to see Atlanta at 8-5 and having outscored its opponents by 30 runs. I suspect we'll start to see them fall down the standings sooner rather than later as I can't see the bullpen continuing to perform at its current level. Starter Sean Newcomb has two starts under his belt in 2018 and they've gone similar to his counterpart Quintana as he struggled the first time out before tossing six scoreless innings the last time we saw him (in Coors Field, no less). But he has struggled in his only two career starts vs. Chicago, losing them both while posting a 6.10 ERA. Something else to keep in mind is thatt he Cubs have outscored the opposition by nine runs this season despite having a 6-7 record. They'll get back on track this afternoon. 8* Chi Cubs

10* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): This weekend is all about revenge for Dodger Blue as they were swept out in Arizona roughly 10 days ago. Those three games are largely responsible for the discrepancy in the standings between these two NL West rivals as the D'backs are sitting pretty atop the division w/ a 9-3 record while LA is languishing at 4-7. But I expect things to go a whole lot differently here at Chavez Ravine. The Dodgers didn't do a whole lot of scoring in that first go-around w/ Arizona, getting held to 1 and 0 runs in two of the losses. Already, six of the Dodgers' games this season have been shutouts - one way or the other - and they are 3-3 in those games. Arizona has been propped up by its pitching thus far, but it's tough to like them here w/ the revenge angle plus the fact this is their third stop of the current road trip.

While there's been an irregular number of shutouts so far in Dodgers' games, Wednesday's loss to the A's was the exception to that rule. They fell 16-6, giving up more runs than they had in the previous four games combined. But if Kenta Maeda's 1st start of '18 was any indication, then they can count on not needing to put up many runs tonight in order to achieve victory. Two weeks ago, Maeda blanked the Giants over five innings, striking out 10 batters. He also added one more scoreless inning, in relief, on April 7th after his second start (scheduled for the previous day) was rained out. Mother nature has not really cooperated for the Dodgers, who have already had four days off. Thus, they've failed to get into any kind of rhythm. Yet, I suspect this series will carry a ton of importance in the clubhouse. 

Arizona counters w/ Zack Greinke, who you might think would be in good spot due to his time spent pitching in a Dodgers' uniform. However, you would be incorrect. In three starts in an Arizona uniform at Dodger Stadium, Greinke has a 7.56 ERA. He also isn't exactly off to the best start here in '18. He does have a 14-0 KW ratio, but also allowed five runs in five innings his last time out and has surrendered a home run in both starts. Arizona has won all four of its series thus far, but I see that streak coming to an end this weekend. They certainly won't sweep the Dodgers a second straight time. I love the home team in this spot. 10* LA Dodgers

10* Over Kings/Golden Knights (10:05 ET): Thanks to a 1-0 final (in favor of Vegas) in Game 1, we've got a lower O/U line to work with for Game 2. Now I recognize that there's a lot of work to be done from Game 1 to get this one Over despite the 1/2 goal drop. And I did take the Kings Wednesday in large part due to their #1 ranking in goals allowed and penalty killing from the regular season. But, keep in mind the teams combined to go 0 for 6 on the power play in the series opener. This is the 1st time all season that a Vegas home game has a total of 5.0 attached to it and there must be something about Friday nights on the strip as the Over is 13-1 here on Friday nights. Meanwhile, the Kings are 3-0 Over in road games if the O/U line is 5.0. Take the Over. 

Vegas averages 3.5 goals per game at home. That's fourth most in the league. So I'm not necessarily fearful of them being able to get goals tonight even though they were held to just one in Game 1 and the Kings generally do a great job at keeping the opponent from finding the back of the net. Goltending, however, is a concern. Marc-Andre Fleury is a playoff veteran and made 30 saves in Game 1. But let's see if he can "do it again" here. Getting back to Vegas' ability to score, there has never been a three-game stretch all season where the team was held to one or fewer goals in three straight ganes. They lost their regular season finale 7-1 to Calgary, so I'm looking for the offense to bounce back in a major way tonight. The last time the Golden Knights were held to just one goal in B2B games, they came back the next time out and scored four times.

The Kings must play Game 2 w/o defenseman Drew Doughty, so they're definitely weaker along the blueline here. Similar to Vegas, LA typically bounces back offensively after a weak showing the previous game. The last time they were shutout (prior to Game 1) was 3.17 and they came right back and scored four times the next game. In fact, Game 1 was only the fifth time the Kings have been shutout all season and the Over is a perfect 3-0 after the L3 times it happened. Let's take advantage of the low total here and go Over. 10* Over Kings/Golden Knights

8* LA Angels (8:15 ET): The Halos are garnering a lot of attention right now, both for the overall team performance (off to an 11-3 start!) and for the individual accomplishments of two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani. The team, which won its fifth straight game yday, is not only sporting the nice record, but also a MLB-best +45 run differential. They easily beat the Royals on Thursday, 7-1, led by Ohtani's three-run triple. Mike Trout also homered. I expect another easy win tonight. The Royals are at the opposite end of the spectrum right now and should remain there for the balance of this season. I've written about this before, but there's just no offense here and the strength of the club the past few seasons - the bullpen - has been dismantled. I had KC regressing in a major way in 2018 and it looks as if I was correct. 

For the second straight game, the Angels will send a pitcher making his 2018 debut to the mound. Last night, it was Nick Tropeano, who was coming off Tommy John surgery and making his first big-league start in almost TWO years. All he did was throw 6 2/3 scoreless innings. Tonight, it will be Andrew Heaney, already the seventh starter used (in just 15 games!) by the Angels this season. Heaney should have little difficulty w/ a Royals lineup that has scored an AL-low 32 runs so far. Making that number look even worse is the fact that 10 of those 32 runs came in one game. The team has yet to win a game this year in which it did not shutout its opponent (3-8 record) and they've been held to three runs or fewer nine times. Last night marked the fifth time in 11 games they scored just one run. 

While the Royals offense has been scuffling early on, the Angels' leads the league in runs scored. Tonight, LA faces Jason Hammel, who is off a strong showing at Cleveland last weekend, but ultimately it was not enough as the team fell 3-1. I don't look for a repeat of the six scoreless innings Hammel tossed on Sunday, for a number of reasons. One is that he traditionally pitches worse at home. He posted a 4.94 ERA at Kauffman Stadium last year. He also has not done well in the past against the Angels (5.30 ERA in seven starts). Something else to keep in mind is that Hammel logged career highs in number of starts and IP last season. Speaking of last season, KC was very fortunate to finish 80-82 as they were outscored by 89 runs. This year, we should find them at the bottom of the standings most of the way. 8* LA Angels 

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The Mets are off to an absolutely blistering start as they've won eight straight and are 10-1 out of the gate. Making that record all the more impressive is that they're 6-0 on the road. We knew that, if healthy, this team had a top five rotation in all of baseball. Health, or rather lack of it, was the primary culprit in LY's ugly fall from grace that resulted in 92 losses. But this year (at least so far) has been a far different story w/ the team having given up the fewest number of runs in all of baseball. Clutch hitting has also helped them get off to the best start in franchise history. Today, they return home to host a Milwaukee teams whose 7-6 record is highly misleading as they have gone a totally unsustainable 5-0 in one-run games. Great price here on a vastly superior team playing at home.

The Brewers, who were quite active in the offseason, are a trendy pick to make the playoffs. I'm not as high on them. After starting the season w/ a three-game sweep of the lowly Padres, they've gone just 4-6 w/ every victory coming by exactly one run. Three times during that stretch they've been shutout. Consider that their -15 run differential is the third worst in all of the National League. Starting tonight for the Brew Crew will be Zach Davies. He did not factor into the decision his last time out, despite allowing only one run on four hits in 6 IP. That performance was a marked improvement over his first start when he surrendered seven runs in 5 2/3 IP. While unbeaten in four career starts vs. the Mets, Davies has a 4.22 ERA.

Now the Mets' historically great start has not come w/o some good fortune. They have five come from behind victories already and on Wednesday, they were able to come back after being no-hit for the first six innings. Over the L7 games, they are averaging 5.3 rpg despite a collective batting average of only .214. Still, I mentioned pitching earlier and tonight Steven Matz gets the baseball. He allowed only an unearned run in five innings of work his last time out. Unlike LY, the Mets have a fully healthy starting rotation of Syndergaard, deGrom, Matz, Harvey and Wheeler, which makes them a very legit threat in the Senior Circuit. The bullpen has been very good as well in the early going. Throw in the fact that Milwaukee is not a great team and I'm all over the home favorites in this one. 8* NY Mets

10* Over Sharks/Ducks (10:05 ET): A late push from Anaheim (won final 5 reg season games) allowed them to pass San Jose for second in the Pacific and thus earn home ice advantage for this first round playoff series. These Southern California rivals obviously know each other well and this figures to be a tightly contested series. The Ducks may be the hotter team, but the Sharks still finished w/ a slightly better goal differential for the year. Also, prior to dropping five of six to end the regular season, San Jose happened to have won eight in a row. There is also an injury concern for Anaheim in goal as John Gibson got hurt late in the regular season. I have no read on the side here, but do like the game to go Over the total as this is the lowest Gm 1 O/U on the board. 

Anaheim actually gives up more shots than they take, which could come back to bite them down the road. Right now, the biggest question is Gibson's health. Gibson posted a career-best 31 wins in the regular season to go along w/ a 2.43 GAA. Reportedly, he is a "viable option" for Game 1, but having not played since 4/1, might he be rusty? The thinking is that Ryan Miller's postseason experience will make the Gibson injury a non-factor, but I'm no so sure about that. San Jose has its own issues in goal right now as Martin Jones posted a career-worst GAA (2.55) this season and closed w/ a terrible .875 save percentage his L4 starts. Backup Aaron Dell is always an option, but he has zero postseason starts to his name.

These teams played four times in the regular season and three of the games went to shootouts. Ironically, all three of those games that went to a shootout stayed Under the total. The other game was a 6-2 San Jose win. The Under has cashed in 8 of the last 9 head to head meetings overall and the Ducks were a strong Under team during the regular season. Still, San Jose went Over in each of its final three regular season games and the O/U line was never this low for any of the regular season matchups. With the goaltending issues on both sides, I see some real value on the Over here in what should be a tightly contested series. It should definitely take at least three goals to win this game. 10* Over Sharks/Ducks

8* Washington (7:05 ET): After starting the season 4-0, the Nationals have dropped six of eight including another home loss yday, this one to Atlanta. They'll stay in the Nation's capital this weekend, welcoming in a Rockies team that just avoided what would have been a very embarrassing sweep, at home to the Padres. They won yday 6-4, but keep in mind that was only the second time in seven games they topped three runs in a game despite only playing Atlanta and San Diego during that time, all but one of the contests coming at Coors Field. I don't see Colorado's offensive woes ending here and at the same time we should see the Nats' bats start to wake up. I like the home team to win big Thursday. 

It was a 12-inning loss for the Nats yday after they'd tied the game in the bottom of the ninth. That was the second time in the last four games they lost a 12-inning affair. Despite the team's mediocre start to the season, Bryce Harper has come out of the gates swinging, posting a .316 batting average w/ six home runs and 13 runs scored. But perhaps more key to tonight's game is the fact that Gio Gonzalez is starting. Gonzalez has never lost to the Rockies, going 4-0 in five career starts. He has been sharp in the early going of 2018 as he's allowed just 2 ER in 11+ IP. He had to settle for a no-decision his last time out (vs. the Mets), but did have six more strikeouts, bringing his YTD total up to 13. Note that Rockies' hitters have struck out at least 10 times in four of the last five games.

While Washington is still favored to win the NL East this season, I expect Colorado to drop down the standings a bit after LY's Wild Card campaign. We know the hitting always dips outside of Coors Field, so considering how anemic they've been in their home park, things don't look too promising for this weekend. Chad Bettis will get the starting nod and while he's got a 2-0 TSR thus far, he's been far from dominant. He walked four batters in his first start and has only 7 K's so far. I just can't see the Nationals losing another home game and this price range seems justifiable. 8* Washington

8* Boston (7:05 ET): The Bruins missed out on a shot to earn home ice advantage throughout the Eastern Conference half of the draw when they lost to the Florida Panthers in the final game of the regular season. It was a rather shocking defeat in that it came at home against a team that had nothing to play for. Boston's "punishment" for failing to finish first in the East is an opening round series w/ Toronto. There's some irony here as by finishing 1st in the East, Tampa Bay plays a New Jersey team they were 0-3 SU against in the regular season. But there's no denying that the Maple Leafs are a tougher draw from the Bruins than the Devils would have been. I've seen many thinking "upset" in this series as the Leafs went 3-1 vs. the Bruins in the regular season, but I'm on the home team for Game 1. 

Boston outscored its opponents by 56 goals in the regular season and ranked in the top six in goals scored, goals allowed, power play and penalty killing. They are a legit Cup contender and have a home record of 28-8-5. That's the fewest regulation losses at home of any team in the East and they've outscored visiting teams here by more than a full goal per game. I'm not concerned w/ the 1-4 slide to end the regular season nor the 1-3 record vs. Toronto from the regular season. Tuukka Rask had a .924 even strength save percentage in the regular season, winning 34 of 53 starts. His career save percentage in the playoffs is an impressive .928. 

Toronto is a talented young team w/ plenty of depth, but they are weak along the blue line and the issue has always been giving up far too many shots on goal. We started to see the ramifications of that as goalie Frederik Andersen began to struggle in March. Toronto allows the most shots per game of all playoff teams at 33.9 and that likely comes back to bite them in the postseason. While many will cite the series five years ago as a motivating factor for the Leafs, hardly any players remain from that team. I see a Boston team that was eliminated in the 1st round last year as being more motivated, especially w/ all the upset chatter that has surrounded this series. 8* Boston

10* St. Louis (6:40 ET): The Cardinals' lack of fortune to start the 2018 season continued yday w/ yet another one-run loss, this one coming by a 3-2 count to Milwaukee. It was their third one-run loss of the season (now 0-3 in such games), all of them coming at the hands of the Brewers. The loss dropped them to 5-7 overall. Of course, while the Redbirds may be a good team experiencing poor luck, Cincinnati is just a plain bad baseball team. They too have three one-run losses after taking another yday, 4-3 at Philadelphia. That was the Reds' fourth straight loss (were swept in Philly), dropping them to 2-9 overall. These two NL Central rivals start a series on Thursday and I like the Cards to take the series opener. In addition to being the better team, they enter w/ a slight edge having wrapped up yday's game in the afternoon while Cincy went to extra innings last night. 

Somewhat surprisingly, St. Louis struggled w/ Cincinnati last season, going only 10-9 against them. However, they have had no problem beating this particular division rival when Michael Wacha is on the bump and he'll get the baseball this evening at Great American Ballpark. In 16 career appearances vs. the Reds, 14 of them starts, Wacha is 8-1 w/ a 2.85 ERA. He faced them twice last season, both at home, and each time allowed only one run in 6 IP. He finished w/ 11 K's and just two walks. Now Wacha is off to a bit of a slow start this season and was plagued by control issues in his last start (vs. Arizona). But note the Cards still won, beating Zack Greinke, 5-3. St. Louis also swept the Reds in their final visit to Great American Ballpark last season. 

Timely hitting would likely change the Cardinals fortune in a hurry. While they're batting a collective .235 w/ 114 strikeouts, it's a .209 average w/ RISP that's really killing them. But enter Sal Romano, not to be confused w/ the Mad Men character, who starts today for the home team. Romano is now just 5-9 in his career as a starter w/ a 4.59 ERA after a pretty rocky start to this season. While the team did win his last time out, Romano didn't factor into the decision and has a 5.73 ERA and 1.455 WHIP in two starts. He has only 3 K's in those two starts, an alarmingly low number. The Reds' bullpen also remains as bad as ever. Manager Bryan Price already seems to be on the hot season as the team seems well on its way to another losing season. I'll play against them here. 10* St. Louis

8* Utah (10:35 ET): This game will decide the third seed in the Western Conference. Utah and Portland come into this regular season finale tied at 48-33. Amazingly, only two games separate third from ninth in the West. So it remains to be seen how far the loser could drop. The bottom line though is I'm "all about" taking the points w/ a red-hot Jazz team (won 6 straight) getting points. Yes, the game is in Portland, but Utah grades out as the better team in just about every way (whether you're talking net efficiency or straight point differential), so taking the points seems like a luxury. The Jazz are one of only two teams allowing fewer than 100 PPG for the season. 

Utah has also "discovered" an offense during the current win streak, averaging 117.2 points the L5 games. Four of those victories have come by double digits, including a 119-79 demolition of Golden State last night. You can talk about how the Warriors didn't have Steph Curry, but Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green all played. It was the Dubs' worst loss (40 pts) of the Steve Kerr era as the Jazz held them to 35 percent shooting and led the entire way! I'm not even concerned w/ this being the second game of a back to back either as no Jazz player logged more than 28 minutes last night! Just how good has this team been, you ask? They have gone 29-5 SU the L34 games, which is tied w/ the Rockets for the best record in the league during that time.

Meanwhile, Portland has been struggling of late. They've lost four in a row and were held to 82 pts on 33 percent shooting in their last game, at Denver. Now all four losses came on the road, but it goes w/o saying which team has the "momentum" coming into this game. I've said multiple times that the Blazers weren't necessarily as good as their record. Going by both net efficiency and point differential, they are the sixth best team in the West. The offensive struggles go beyond just the Denver game and this is not the opponent where those struggles are likely to be corrected. Since their 13-game win streak ended, the Blazers have gone just 4-7 SU overall. 8* Utah

10* Los Angeles (10:05 ET): To me, of the eight first round playoff series, this is the one w/ the most upset potential. Vegas has been an incredible story in its expansion year, winning the Pacific Division w/ 109 points (led virtually wire to wire), but they are probably one of the more vulnerable high seeds in recent NHL playoff history. It certainly doesn't help that they have a tough first round draw vs. the battle-tested Kings. The Golden Knights quickly developed a home ice edge (how much that has to do w/ opposing teams being in Vegas is a matter of conjecture), but LA happens to come in w/ one of the better road marks in the league (22-14-5). The regular season goal differentials of these two teams was not all that different. I like the Kings to steal Game 1. 

Truthfully, the Golden Knights were decidedly mediocre over the second half of the season. They went just 22-14-5 overall following the All-Star Break, but had already built a big enough division lead that they were never really threatened to drop out of first place. But the playoffs are a different animal. They do have a goaltender w/ plenty of postseason experience in Marc-Andre Fleury, but even there the Kings would seem to have an edge as they ranked #1 in the league in both goals allowed and penalty killing during the regular season. Their goalie Jonathan Quick has won multiple Stanley Cup as well and his resume needs no introduction either. In fact, Quick probably had his best regular season in years.

These teams split four regular season meetings, each side winning once at home and on the road. Two of the games went to OT and each won one of those. Vegas showed some vulnerability late in the regular season, ending w/ losses to Edmonton and Calgary (two non-playoff teams). LA also won here late in the regular season, 4-1. Had I told you before the start of the season that Vegas would be favored in a playoff game over Los Angeles, you would have had me committed. This is a really bad matchup for the Golden Knights. 10* Los Angeles

10* Baltimore (7:05 ET): Toronto has taken the first two games of this three-game set, holding Baltimore to just one run each time. After rolling to a 7-1 victory Monday, it was a pitcher's duel yday (2-1) w/ the Jays' Aaron Sanchez getting the better of it, even taking a no-hit bid into the eighth innings. Keep in mind though that Toronto didn't score in the first seven innings either. I like the O's to salvage a game tonight though before hitting the road for the next week. It is interesting to note three of Baltimore's four wins have come in extra innings, but they've also taken on a challenging schedule and had only two home series. I expect the offense to wake up here. 

It's not as if the O's haven't had some chances to get the job done at the plate in this series. But they have gone 2 for 16 w/ runners in scoring position. Now, most of those failed opportunities came in the first game. But, typically this has been a strong offensive club under skipper Buck Showalter. They have struggled in the past against tonight's starter Marco Estrada, who is additionally off to a strong start in 2018. But note Estrada has allowed three home runs so far, so he's susceptible there. Eventually, we're going to see that Orioles offense start to connect, trust me. 

Toronto is off to an impressive 8-4 start and keep in mind they lost their first two games. But sweeping a division rival, on the road, is hard to do. Even w/ the B2B wins, the Blue Jays still have a losing record here at Camden Yards the L3 seasons. Baltimore starter Kevin Gausman was able to rebound from a terrible first start by allowing just two runs in five innings against the Yankees last time out and the team won 7-3 as +160 ML underdogs. When analyzing the O's record so far, note that their last two series came at Houston and at the Yankees. Gausman has pitched well against this Toronto team in the past, posting a 3.12 ERA in 18 games. The Orioles have always been a good home team through the years (97-70 since the start of '16) and I just don't see them being swept here. 10* Baltimore 

8* Winnipeg (7:05 ET): The Jets just might be Canada's best hope of ending that embarrassing quarter-century long drought of not hoisting Lord Stanley's Cup. This team comes into the playoffs red hot, having won five straight and 11 of their last 12. They are the only team in the league to finish the regular season in the top five for both goals scored and allowed. Only division rival Nashville had more points (117 to 114) and only Tampa Bay had a better overall scoring differential (+60 to +59). While the Jets may not have been able to win the Central Division, they do have home ice advantage for this first round playoff series and that's huge as their record here in Manitoba is 32-7-2. That's the best home record in the league. I like them tonight in Gm 1. 

Minnesota is a team you'd favor over most, but not here w/o the home ice advantage. The Wild actually took fewer regulation losses at home than did the Jets (only six), but dropped 14 games overall in the Twin Cities. That home record is still really nice, but they're below .500 on the road w/ a pretty significant deficit in goals scored vs. allowed. In fact, they allow 3.5 goals per game away from home this year. That likely comes back to bite them here against a Jets club that averages 3.9 goals per game in this building. The home ice advantage is huge here w/ a rabid crowd looking to see a playoff win in person for the first time since the franchise returned.

These teams played four times in the regular season and the Jets won three of them, including both here at home. The scores were 7-2 and 4-3. Now, somewhat surprisingly, they have not faced off since January and that was the only meeting going all the way back to November. But what's scary for the WIld is how much stronger Winnipeg looks now. Connor Hellebuyck has a 30-7 SU record at home and comes in w/ .938 save percentage his last four starts. Minnesota is w/o a key defensemen (Ryan Suter), which really hurts them in this series and true to overall team form Devan Dubnyk sees his save percentage plummet on the road, all the way down to .908. The home ice advantage makes all the difference in Game 1 of this series (and possibly Game 2 too?). 8* Winnipeg

8* Seattle (2:10 ET): After an embarrassing effort in the opener of this three-game set (lost 10-0!), the Mariners were able to rebound yday w/ an 8-3 win, thus squaring things up heading into today's rubber match. Now 5-4 on the young season, the M's have not won B2B games since opening the season 2-0, but I like them to do so today as the Royals team they are facing is simply one that we should expect very little from this season. Interestingly, all three KC wins this year have come via shutout (two of them 1-0!). That 10-0 win on Monday was clearly an outlier considering it is the ONLY time in the previous time in the last eight games that they have scored more than three runs! I look for Seattle to take the series in convincing fashion this afternoon.

The Royals' offensive woes have to be "music to the ears" of M's starter James Paxton, who comes in w/ an 0-2 TSR and 7.45 ERA. He's allowed 3 HR's and has a WHIP of 1.551, but the good news is that his second start was a lot better than the first. While the team still lost 4-2 to the Twins last Thursday, Paxton has seven strikeouts in five innings and allowed two runs on four hits. Felix Hernandez had little difficulty w/ this KC lineup yday and neither should Paxton today. Paxton is unbeaten in four career starts vs. KC, posting a 2.43 ERA. No Royals hitter has more than eight career AB's against him. Furthemore, KC's lineup has been weakened w/ Alex Gordon heading to the DL. 

While the Royals have surrendered zero runs in their three wins this year, they've allowed 38 in the six losses. Having southpaw Danny Duffy on the mound this afternoon figures to add to that latter number. Duffy has struggled mightily in his first two starts of '18. He actually has an identical ERA and WHIP to Paxton, but while Paxton at least showed some improvement from the first start to the next, Duffy most certainly did not. Duffy has allowed eight runs on 10 hits thus far, three of them coming via the home run ball. He could not hold a four-run lead in his first start and then allowed three runs in the first inning in his second. The Royals' bullpen is nowhere close to as good as it once was, so little relief can be offered there. We've already talked about the hitting woes and the Gordon injury does them no favors either. Good price to play against a bad team. 8* Seattle 

8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): It took 10 innings, but the Brewers won Monday's series opener here in St. Louis, by a score of 5-4. The Cardinals are now just 1-3 at home while the Brew Crew is 4-0 on the road. Of course, it was just last week when the Redbirds took two of three at Miller Park. Many have these two teams tabbed as Wild Card contenders in what is a top-heavy National League. Losing this series is certainly no death knell early in the season, but it's important for establishing dominance in the division.

Starting for Milwaukee today is Brent Suter, who is off to a rough start in 2018. Through two starts, he has a 6.30 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. The Cardinals did not face him in last week's series. But Thursday, he gave up five runs in 5 IP to the Cubs in an 8-0 loss. Suter has gone 5 IP in both starts. He is winless in his career vs. St. Louis w/ a 4.50 ERA. Something to keep in mind w/ this Milwaukee team is that of their six wins, five have come in the final at-bat. 

Starting for St. Louis here will be Carlos Martinez, who dominated the Brew Crew last week as he went 8 1/3 IP and didn't allow a run. He finished w/ 10 K's as well. Martinez has really had Milwaukee's number throughout his career, posting a 1.98 ERA in 13 career starts w/ 101 K's in 91 IP. This will be his 1st home start of this year. I can't see St. Louis dropping B2B games at Busch Stadium nor can I see Milwaukee remaining perfect on the road. 8* St. Louis 

10* Houston (8:10 ET): The Twins surprised everyone last year, going from 100+ losses the previous season to a Wild Card berth. It's only predictable that they will regress some this year and they are 4-3 through seven games. They dropped the series opener w/ Houston yday, 2-0. There has been no sign of regression from the defending World Series Champs meanwhile as they have started 8-2. They've won three straight including two by shutout. I see them winning again tonight behind Dallas Keuchel. 

Keuchel has allowed five runs in 11 IP so far this year. Last time out, he had some control issues (four walks), but it didn't matter as Houston beat Baltimore 3-2. He has 21 strikeouts in 20 career IP vs. the Twins. Houston has had a lot of success in this park the last two seasons, going 4-0 including outscoring them 40-16 last year. Keep in mind the Astros have allowed just one run total in the last three games. I believe Keuchel continues that trend. 

Minnesota gives the baseball to Jake Odorizzi. He has good career marks vs. Houston, some of the best against any opponent in fact. Something to note is that the Twins are 13-23 the L3 seasons as a home underdog in the +125 to +175 range. I don't think Odorizzi succeeds here and you can note the Twins are allowing 6.5 rpg at home while the Astros are averaging 5.5 rpg on the road. 10* Houston

10* Under Sixers/Hawks (7:35 ET): The famed "process" in Philadelphia has succeeded beyond anyone's wildest imagination this season as the 76ers will finish either third or fourth in the Eastern Conference standings, depending on the results of the next two days. The team has won a remarkable 14 straight games and leads Cleveland by one-half game w/ two to play themselves and the Cavs having only one more game left on the schedule. Atlanta is not going to the playoffs as they have the worst overall record in the Eastern Conference (tied w/ Orlando). This game looks like a mismatch on paper, but the line is also inflated. So to the total we go.

Over its last five games, Philly has averaged over 119 PPG. They are shooting 51% from the field during that time. However, the last game was low-scoring as they beat Dallas 109-97 and did not cover as 13-pt chalk. It was the second straight game they did not cover after covering nine in a row. A win tonight would set a new franchise record. Keep in mind that they are w/o Joel Embiid. But its a deep team that has seven double digit scorers. Still, it will be difficult for them alone to carry this game Over the total. For instance, the last meeting w/ the Hawks was a 101-91 final in their favor. 

Atlanta is off a rare win here as they beat injury-plagued Boston 112-106 on Sunday. It was actually their second straight win as they also won at Washington on Friday. They were 10.5 and 9.5 point underdogs, respectively, in those two games. Note that they had failed to top 100 points in any of their four games prior to those two upsets. The Hawks are 12-4 Under when coming off a SU win as a dog and also 4-1 Under in April. The average number of points each team scores and allows combined does not exceed the O/U line here. 10* Under Sixers/Hawks

10* Under Pelicans/Clippers (10:35 ET): The Clippers are out of the playoff race while the Pelicans are one of five teams in the West fighting for the final four playoff spots and that quintet is separated by all of two games. Hence the line here where New Orleans is a significant road favorite as they are the team that "has to win." They are currently fifth in the pecking order in the West, but tied w/ both San Antonio and Oklahoma City. So a loss here could result in them being as low as seventh by the end of the night. I have zero interest in laying the inflated number here, but I do like the total as the number seems too high despite the way most Pelicans games go.

New Orleans allows and scores more than 110 points per game. They are the ONLY team in the league that can claim that. They've also topped 120 pts in three consecutive games. That said, the average number of total points scored in their games does not exceed the total for tonight. Two nights ago vs. Golden State, they shot a blistering 56.3% from the floor. Hard to imagine them approaching that number here tonight even though the Clippers just allowed 134 pts in their last game. They allowed the Nuggets to shoot 62.4% from the floor, a number that will without question come down here. 

We've established that there's valid reasoning for this total being so high. New Orleans has gone Over in three straight and the Over is 47-33 in all games this season. Denver has gone Over in four straight. But the recent numbers also simply cannot be maintained. It is curious that this total is actually lower than it was last month when the teams met. Expect this one to stay Under the total. 10* Under Pelicans/Clippers

8* Cleveland (6:10 ET): The Indians were the top Under team in baseball and seem well on their way to doing so again in 2018 as none of their previous four games have seen more than five total runs scored. They've scored three runs or less in all of five of those games themselves. Yesterday was a 3-1 win as they managed to win the series w/ lowly Kansas City. A big reason why the Tribe are such prohibitive favorites to win the AL Central is the rest of the division itself. Personally, I don't see any of the other four teams finishing w/ a winning record. That includes the next opponent Detroit, a team coming off a sweep over another AL Central foe, the White Sox. Sweeps will not be common for this Tigers team, however, and I expect them to resume their losing ways here. 

Corey Kluber, who was arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball last season, has pitched 15 innings so far and allowed just four runs. He has 14 K's and just three walks. Yet, the Indians lost both games. Both losses were by one run and obviously a lack of run support was the culprit. The offense supplied Kluber w/ just three runs total. Right now, the Indians have the lowest team batting average in the American League. Now, Kluber did allow a home run in both starts. But he should bounce back here against a team he went 3-1 against LY in five starts. 

The Tigers will give the baseball to Francisco Liriano, who is 5-6 all-time vs. Cleveland w/ a 4.19 ERA. In his first start of '18, Liriano pitched well, allowing just one run on four hits in 6 2/3 IP, although he had only three strikeouts. But I don't expect a repeat of that even w/ the cold temperatures that will favor the respective pitchers here. It also should be pointed out that the Tigers' offense has been quite anemic so far. They've scored 1 or 0 runs in three games so far and had only two hits in a 1-0 win yday. 8* Cleveland

8* Tampa Bay (2:10 ET): We all expect the White Sox to not be any good in 2018, but it's been a real ugly start for the now 1-8 Rays, who badly need a win. Their lone win came on Opening Day and since then, it's been eight straight losses. To be fair though, so far they've only faced the Red Sox and Yankees. So today's series opener marks a rather huge drop in class. It will be a welcome one for starter Chris Archer, a good starter who has given up eight runs in just 11 IP so far, against two of the top offenses in baseball. Now he faces a White Sox team that has scored all of one run in its last two games and dropped five of six. As I said when I successfully played against Chicago earlier this year, it won't be too long until it's exceedingly rare that we see the Sox at these prices. 

The current losing streak is longer than any for the Rays all of last season. At no point last year did they suffer through a skid of more than five games. Now two of the last three games have been decided by exactly one run. So it's not exactly as if they're getting blown out. In fact, the team is now 0-5 in one-run games. Again though, look at who they played: two of the top four teams in the American League. They are now facing arguably the weakest AL team on paper, with their Opening Day starter on the hill. One thing to note is the fact Archer has 14 K's in 11 IP. 

Miguel Gonzalez did not have a strong 2018 debut. He allowed five runs and eight hits in a loss to the Blue Jays, lasting only five innings. His seven wins against the Rays are the most he has versus any opponent. That said, he doesn't have much backing him up here as the last series saw the offense bat a collective .217 and the bullpen has a 7.20 ERA/1.620 WHIP so far. Note the White Sox are also coming off a sweep, here at home, at the hands of a Tigers team that is simply not very good. They've played a far weaker schedule to this point than has Tampa Bay. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Washington (8:05 ET): The Mets are off to a hot start as their 6-1 record is the best in the National League. They've won four in a row and tonight go for the sweep of the Nationals, in D.C. I don't see it happening, despite the fact the Nats have now dropped four in a row themselves. The home team was in position to win yday, leading by one run after both the fifth and sixth innings. But the Mets rallied for two in the top of the seventh and that was the gane. That being said, I just can't see Washington being swept at home this weekend. They'll salvage the finale tonight on ESPN. 

Tanner Roark will get the baseball for the Nats Sunday night, coming off a very strong 1st outing of 2018 where he allowed just one run and four hits in 7 IP. He had six strikeouts against just one walk as it wound up being an 8-1 win over Atlanta. Eight outs were via ground ball while two-thirds of Roark's pitches went for strikes. I view this as a favorable matchup as the Mets aren't really hitting all that well despite averaging almost 5.0 runs per game. Roark has pitched quite well against the Mets in the past, going 7-2 in 17 starts w/ a 2.76 ERA.

The Mets have not swept the Nats in D.C. in three years. They counter Roark w/ Matt Harvey, himself coming off a very strong 1st start of '18. Harvey allowed no runs and just one hit in five innings of work as the Mets beat the Phils 2-0 Tuesday. He's working on one less days' rest than is Roark. Harvey has also struggled mightily in his career vs. the Nationals, going 3-6 over 14 starts. The last two years have been particularly bad as he's 0-3 w/ a 7.25 ERA in five tries. Are the Mets in line for a resurgent 2018? Probably. But they'll come up short tonight. 8* Washington

8* Over Pistons/Grizzlies (3:35 ET): Detroit has been officially eliminated from playoff contention as we now know the eight teams that will be in the postseason from the Eastern Conference (unlike the Western Conf where only three spots are clinched). With the relatively "meaningless" nature of this contest, I expect little in the way of defensive intensity and thus Over seems like a logical call on a low total. Memphis has of course been long out of contention as they've hit a nadir that is as low as any team has experienced all season. They just lost at home to Sacramento to fall to 3-27 SU the last 30 games. The Friday game was quite low scoring and while the Grizz are dead last in the league in scoring, I see this one sneaking Over the number. 

Memphis has actually failed to score 100 pts in four consecutive games, all losses. Neither they nor Sacramento shot terribly in Friday's 94-93 game, so that final score is a bit head scratching. Also consider that it was just 68-63 going into the fourth quarter. A big thing was each team shooting only 25% from three-point range and there also weren't a ton of free throws attempted in the game. One positive here for Memphis is that Detroit is not particularly adept at defending the three-point line, particularly on the road where opponents are shooting at over a 37% clip. Overall, the Pistons are not a good defensive team, though recent opponents have happened to shoot pretty poorly. 

Detroit has averaged over 109 points its last five games and shoots better than 37 percent itself from three-point range for the season. So that's the bad news for Memphis. Note Detroit's 113-106 win over Dallas on Friday did go to overtime. (Though the Over was a winner at the end of regulation). The Pistons shot 50% against Dallas. Note that in the first meeting, the game did sneak Over a similar total w/ the Pistons winning 104-102. Looking at both teams' season averages, the total number of points scored and allowed exceed this total. 8* Over Pistons/Grizzlies

8* St. Louis (2:15 ET): We've got a rubber match in the Gateway City w/ the D'backs and Cards having split the first two games this weekend. Yesterday's game went the way of the Redbirds, thus snapping Arizona's four-game win streak. It was just the second loss all year for the D'backs, who were a playoff team last year (Wild Card), making a big jump from 2016. Despite said fast start, I expect them to regress a bit in 2018. Meanwhile, St. Louis is a team I've tabbed for the postseason as they look to be the second best team in the NL Central (behind the Cubs). They are now 4-4 on the season w/ this series being their first at home. 

It was the coldest temperature ever at Busch Stadium yesterday, which certainly had an effect on both teams, but more likely the visitors (who come from a warm-weather environment). Theoretically, the cold weather should aid the pitchers as well. But not Jose Martinez, who drove in all but one of St. Louis' runs. He homered, which was the difference as Arizona's Zack Greinke was pretty dominant after that. Today, the Cards get to face Taijuan Walker instead. He is nowhere near as good and in his first start, surrendered three runs in five innings. He gave up eight hits and walked two against just four strikeouts. Arizona did come from behind to win the game, 8-7, in 15 innings. Yet, the credit clearly doesn't go to Walker for that one. 

St. Louis counters w/ Luke Weaver, who overcame three walks in his first start to allow just one run on five hits as the team beat the Mets, 5-1. Neither side has hit well in this series, so I expect it to be low-scoring. But give the edge to the home team w/ the cold temperatures and the fact they have the hot bat (Martinez). It's also based on my respective forecasts for the two clubs this season. Note that despite the hot start, Arizona has scored just three runs in each of the last three games and three or fewer in four of the last six games. 8* St. Louis

8* Edmonton (10:05 ET): This is a nothing regular season finale as neither team is making the playoffs. For the Oilers, that fact has to be terribly disappointing. Their Cup-starved fans came into this season w/ the thought that this would be one of the top teams in the entire league. That simply did not happen as they instead regressed big-time from last year's breakthrough campaign. I do anticipate "they'll be back" next year, but first I'll take them in the final game of 2017-18 as they're at home and playing an inferior foe.

Vancouver was expected to be bad coming into the year and they have not "disappointed." The Sedin twins have announced their retirement, so tonight marks the final time we will see either of them. Curiously, the Canucks have played some inspired hockey of late, winning five of the last six. That's much different from Edmonton, who has lost five of six. But they are not a good road team and they've lost five of their six trips here. Oilers' goalie Cam Talbot has had their number recently going 4-0-1 w/ a 1.18 GAA and two shutouts his last five starts against them. 

Just because the Oilers as a team have disappointed doesn't mean certain individuals have. Last year's MVP Conor McDavid is set to make it B2B scoring titles. He's turned in 14 three-point games this season. He had three assists in the win over Vegas last time out. Vancouver also won 4-3 its last time out, but that was at home against Arizona and they are just 9-17 SU this season after scoring four or more goals the previous game. 8* Edmonton

10* Minnesota (2:10 ET): The Twins have opened 4-2, outscoring foes by 15 runs. On Thursday, they won their home opener, beating the Mariners by a score of 4-2. Now this is a team I expect to regress some this year after they jumped from 100+ losses in '16 to a stunning Wild Card berth in '17. However, they are the better team compared to Seattle, who also isn't likely to win as many games this season as LY's already subpar record 78-84 record was "propped up" by a league-best 26-15 record in one run games. They've lost the last two games, the aforementioned one to the Twins on Thursday plus an ugly 10-1 loss to the sorry Giants.

Jose Berrios pitches today for Minnesota. Hopefully, he pitches somewhat like he did in his first outing when he went the distance, delivering a complete game, three-hit shutout. Berrios had six strikeouts and issued just one walk and at one point retired 17 consecutive hitters. Something else to note here is the expected cold temperatures, something that affected Seattle Thursday and will likely be a factor again today. The Twins are certainly more used to those conditions. I don't expect the cold to affect the Twins' hitters, who are 2nd in the league in home runs w/ 12. This was a lineup that had three players w/ 27+ hitters a year ago. Coming into today, the Twins have scored twice as many runs as they have allowed.

Seattle has been outscored by over a full run per game so far. Catcher Mike Zunino is still out of the lineup. Mike Leake will get the baseball and he's pitched well since coming over from St. Louis midseason last year. He allowed just two runs on five hits against Cleveland in his 2018 debut and the M's won 5-4 as +125 ML underdogs. He did allow one home run and issue three walks. He will struggle w/ this Twins lineup. Seattle has not been good as a road underdog, going 16-35 in the +125 to +175 range. I like the Twins in this spot. 10* Minnesota

10* Philadelpha (7:05 ET): The 76ers are the hottest team in the league right now, having won 12 in a row and they've covered the spread in the last 10 wins! Nine of those 10 wins have been by double digits. Cleveland comes in having won five straight and 10 of its last 11 after pulling the proverbial "rabbit out of the hat" last night against Washington. Down 17 w/ just over seven minutes remaining, the Cavs prevailed 119-115 behind LeBron James' 33 points. The winner of this game will be in third place, at least for the time being, in what is all of a sudden a VERY wide open Eastern Conference (w/ Kyrie Irving done for the year in Boston and Toronto slumping). By the numbers, Philly has been a better team this season than Cleveland, so I'll lay the pts even w/o Embiid. 

Only three teams - Houston, Golden State and Toronto - have outscored opponents by a wider margin this year than has Philadelphia. That's pretty incredible. Again, they won nine straight by double digits before beating Detroit "only" 115-108 and note they led that game by 17 entering the fourth quarter. They have scored 115 or more in eight of the last nine games and should easily be able to take advantage of a Cleveland defense that is 28th in defensive efficiency - ahead of only Sacramento and Phoenix. The Sixers beat the Cavs, in Cleveland, 108-97 back on March 1st, snapping a long head to head losing streak. 

Philly has been one of the best teams to bet on this year, especially at home where they are 26-11 ATS. Meanwhile, Cleveland has largely been a disaster at the pay window, going a league-worst 30-48-1 ATS. They have been a lot better of late and have turned a profit as an underdog. But, there's no underestimating the effect of having to comeback last night and then playing on the road. Also, while the Cavs are 28th in defensive efficiency, the Sixers are 3rd. Cleveland has the worst ATS record in the league; Philly has the 2nd best ATS record. The Cavs may be a half game up in the standings, but they have the point differential of a 42-win team, not a 49-win one. Meanwhile, the Sixers have the point differential of a 51-win team. 10* Philadelphia

8* Colorado (4:10 ET): After playing seven in a row on the road (all against fellow NL West teams), the Rockies finally get to play their home opener on Friday. Since opening the season w/ B2B losses to the D'backs, they've won four of five as they took three of four from San Diego. Atlanta also comes in off B2B wins, theirs far more surprising, as they beat the Nationals. The Braves have yet to play on the road in 2018 and I don't like their chances here. Mother nature may or may not cooperate w/ us today, but I favor the Rockies by large margin here at Coors Field. 

Atlanta, believe it not, has a MLB best +21 run differential through six games. That's tied w/ Houston. But unlike the defending World Series Champs, I don't think anyone believes this will persist. They do already have a 15-2 and 13-6 win to their credit and are averaging 8.0 rpg. Again, I'm looking for all these numbers to start coming down. Starting today will be Brandon McCarthy. His 1st start of '18 went well enough, but he was inefficient in needing 97 pitches to get through just 5 1/3 innings (three walks). McCarthy has not pitched particularly well in his career vs. Colorado (5.40 ERA in 10 games), particularly here at Coors Field where he's 0-2 w/ a 7.94 ERA in four appearances. In 17 career innings pitched here in Denver, he's allowed 23 hits, four home runs, and seven walks.

The Rockies counter w/ German Marquez, who allowed only an unearned run in five innings of work in his first start of the year. He has a 7-3 career mark here at Coors. That first start of the year came at another "pitcher unfriendly" environment (Chase Field), so kudos to him. Yes, the Rockies coming off a walk-off win yday while the Braves had the day off is a slight disadvantage. But despite the Braves' early returns, Colorado remains the much stronger team on paper, with a stronger everyday lineup and a stronger bullpen. The Rockies were obviously a strong home team last year and I expect them to really want to win this home opener. 8* Colorado

10* Minnesota (10:35 ET): This is a huge game in the Western Conference playoff picture and can go a long way in determining how the final few spots shake out. The way things stand now is that three teams - Houston, Golden State and Portland - have all clinched. That is also almost 100% likely to be the order of the top three seeds as well. (Houston has clinched #1, GSW clinched #2, Portland all but has clinched #3). After that, seven teams are fighting for five spots and separated by just three games. Both these two are in "the thick of it," yet trending in opposite directions of late. Minnesota, who has been as high as third in the standings, badly misses Jimmy Butler (still out) and has dropped 8 of 14. That may not sound like a terrible losing streak, but the T'wolves have fallen into seventh and are just one game ahead of ninth place Denver, who has won three in a row. 

The Nuggets obviously own a strong homecourt advantage as their record at the Pepsi Center is 29-10 SU. If they don't end up making the playoffs, that fate could largely be pinned on a poor 14-25 SU road record, which is actually not the worst among the playoff contenders, but pretty close. Recently, Denver has experienced some good fortune, such as B2B overtime wins over Oklahoma City and Milwaukee, then beating Indiana by only three as well. Those three wins have been by a total of seven points, so laying a number w/ them doesn't sound too prudent right now. Note that Minnesota has had their number going back to last season as the T'wolves have won the last four head to head meetings. Now they haven't met since right after X-Mas (they again meet, at Minnesota, in the regular season finale), but this division rivalry is pretty clearly going to have a huge bearing on the playoff race. 

I fully expect Minnesota to come out motivated here after they got drubbed, at home, by Utah on Sunday. The final score there was 121-97, in favor of the Jazz, who shot a ridiculous 60 percent from the floor and received 50 pts from the bench. As shaky as Minny has been defensively at time this season, I just don't see them being anywhere close to that poor here tonight. While still w/o Butler, remember Denver doesn't have starting PG Gary Harris, Jr either, nor are they staunch defensively. The Nuggets come in giving up an average of 108.9 PPG, which is more than the T'wolves allow.  Note the rest Minnesota comes into this game with (three full days!). Surprisingly, they are 0-5 ATS when that rested this season, but also note Denver is just 1-5 SU and ATS this year when on a win streak of three or more games. So it's not a good spot for the home team, especially laying points in an important matchup. 10* Minnesota

8* San Jose (10:35 ET): The Sharks lost again (fourth straight), this time at home, Tuesday night. It was an especially painful setback when you consider they were facing a Dallas team that had just been eliminated from playoff contention and also spotted a two-goal lead. The Stars' Jamie Benn turned in a hat trick, the final two goals coming in the final five minutes of regulation and that was the difference. But there's no time for "crying over spilled milk" here as San Jose needs a win to ensure the likelihood of having home ice advantage in a first round playoff series. They are 24-12-3 at home this year, so the loss Tuesday was the exception and not the "rule," but lead third place Anaheim and fourth place Los Angeles (two prospective 1st rd opponents) by just one and two points respectively.

Seven playoff spots in the Western Conference have been clinched, leaving just one up for grabs and it will go to either Colorado or St. Louis. Right now, the Avs have a one-point advantage, but they'll be hosting the Blues in what could be a winner take all game Saturday. The Avalanche's playoff hopes took a big blow last week when goaltender Semyon Varlamov was lost for the regular season. That was a big reason why I played against them at Anaheim on Sunday and despite being spotted an early lead, they could not hold and lost in overtime, 4-3. Then, they lost to the Kings the following night, 3-1. While they've had two days off to try and recoup, this is Colorado's third consecutive road game (over a five-day span) and note they are definitely nowhere near as strong on the road (15-18-7) as they are at home (27-11-2). 

Varlamov's absence looms large down the stretch and makes it very difficult to want to back an Avalanche team that was the worst in the league just a season ago. The one-year turnaround has been pretty remarkable, but by no means "guarantees" a playoff berth. Speaking of home ice and it's importance, note that while Colorado has taken both previous meetings this season, those were at the Pepsi Center. But they have lost 15 of their last 16 visits to the Shark Tank, scoring one goal or fewer in 10 of those games. This current four-game slide by the Sharks matches a season-worst (set back in late January), but home ice is the difference maker in this late-night affair. 8* San Jose

10* St. Louis (7:15 ET): The Cardinals were a nice winner for me last night as they shut out the Brewers (in Milwaukee), 6-0. After dropping the first two games of the season (both in New York), the Redbirds have now won three of four and turn their attention to the home opener Thursday night. As I said in yday's analysis, this Cards team shapes up to be (at worst) a Wild Card contender in what is a very "top-heavy" National League this season. A Wild Card is what Arizona was last season (finished 93-69) and they've gotten off to a hot 5-1 start in 2018 after just sweeping the Dodgers. But regression is what I see from this D'backs club this season and tonight marks their 1st road game. I'll play against them.

Both teams won in shutout fashion Wednesday as Arizona blanked the Dodgers 3-0 w/ starter Patrick Corbin striking out a career-best 12 batters and allowing just one hit over 7 1/3 innings pitched. The D'backs were a really strong home team last year as well, going 52-29 at Chase Field, but only 41-40 on the road. So we really shouldn't be surprised at the fast start to this season, especially considering they were up against familiar opponents (two NL West rivals). But now let's see how they do on the road. I'm not banking on starter Robbie Ray pitching anywhere near as well as Corbin did last night. Ray gave up three home runs in his 1st start of the year and seven runs total (in just 5 IP), yet the D'backs hitters showed up to support him and the bullpen was able to hold on for a 9-8 win. Obviously, Ray won't continue to flourish in the win column if he continues to pitch the way he did last Friday. Also, he's never beaten the Cardinals in three tries, posting a poor 6.52 ERA. The last time he pitched here at Busch Stadium was a scary situation as he took a line drive off the head.

Opposing Ray here will be Adam Wainwright, making his 2018 debut and looking to bounce back from the worst season of his career. But Wainwright can pitch w/ the confidence of knowing he has a rested bullpen behind him as last night's starter Carlos Martinez pitched into the ninth inning. Wainwright is also 8-4 all-time vs. Arizona w/ a 2.72 ERA. I'm willing to call his 2017 an "aberration" and look for the proverbial bounce back. The move to give the baseball to Wainwright is a change as Michael Wacha was originally set to start here. Don't discount that throwing the Arizona hitters off a bit. 10* St. Louis

8* Run Line Detroit (4:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Tigers +1.5. Coming into Thursday, Detroit is just 1-4. Their game yday, scheduled vs. Kansas City, was rained out. That gives them somewhat of an advantage coming into today's game in Chicago. The White Sox were money line favorites all of 15 times last season, so it's definitely rare to see the minus next to their name. It's even rarer to be able to go against them w/ an additional +1.5 runs in "our back pocket." For the record, they were ML favorites once this year (really, even money) and did beat the Royals in that spot. While the Tigers were off, the White Sox did play yday, winning as +190 underdogs in Toronto, thus avoiding a sweep. Today marks their home opener. 

In the interest of full disclosure, I was set to play the Tigers yesterday vs. KC. I'm well aware that their season projection is far from rosy, but they've been hit by some poor luck in the early going here in 2018. Consider that they've allowed a total of three runs the last two games, yet still lost twice (by 1-0 scores)! Today will be their first road game and they'll be handing the baseball to Jordan Zimmerman. Zimmerman did allow four runs in his first start, on six hits, lasting six innings. But he also had eight strikeouts against just one walk. That game wound up being yet another tough loss for the Tigers as they lost 13-10 to Pittsburgh. They had thought they'd won in walkoff fashion, but after a review, what would have been the GW run was overturned as the runner was ruled out at the plate. Zimmerman is looking to bounce back from an uncharacteristically poor 2017 and this is a good spot for him. 

Detroit has already had three games postponed due to weather and there's a chance this one could fall prey to the same fate. Weather conditions are not expected to be favorable, whether or not the game is played. But with those conditions, hitters are likely to be at a disadvantage. Pitchers are already "ahead" of the hitters to begin with this time of year, so this one is bound to be low-scoring. That right there lends itself to taking the 1.5 runs as scoring will be at a premium. Furthermore, two of the White Sox three wins this season have come by exactly one run. Starting today for Chicago will be James Shields, who like Zimmerman allowed four runs in six innings in his first start. But while Shields was fortunate enough to get the win (unlike Zimmerman), he had zero strikeouts. That's a far cry from the eight we saw from Zimmerman. I think the chance to go against the White Sox on the run line is too good to pass up. 8* Run Line Detroit (+1.5)

10* Under Wild/Ducks (10:05 ET): The oddsmakers really aren't "cooperating" here, making the Ducks an overwhelming favorite on the ML in what is a "must-win" spot for them. But the total, Under specifically, seems to have some value as these teams have a history of playing low-scoring games against one another. Anaheim is 4th in the league in goals allowed per game (2.6) while Minnesota isn't too far behind (2.8). Six of the last seven meetings have stayed Under, including two this season, both of which were 3-2 finals (each winning as the road team). In what should be a "playoff-like atmosphere" another low-scoring game should be forthcoming. Take the Under. 

As alluded to earlier, the Ducks badly need the two points here. Right now, they are holding down one of the two Wild Card spots in the Western Conference w/ 95 points. That's two more than Colorado (who would be the 2nd WC the way things stand today) and three more than St. Louis (who plays tonight at home vs. Chicago and is also a big favorite). There is room for upward mobility for the Ducks as well. They are just one point behind the third place Kings and three behind San Jose (who lost last night). So, really, no team is more in flux than Anaheim when it comes to possible playoff position as they could conceivably have home ice advantage for a 1st round series or miss the playoffs altogether (or finish somewhere in between). Minnesota, meanwhile, has safely clinched a playoff spot and will likely have itself a tough 1st round draw vs. Winnipeg, who will have home ice advantage. 

The Wild won via shutout their last time on the ice, 3-0 over Edmonton. It was also their fifth Under in the last six games overall. Three times during that stretch, they've scored only one goal. They really did dominate the Oilers on Monday (outshot them 40-22), but that was also at home where their record is 27-6-8 SU. On the road, the Wild are only 17-19-2. They are also 4-1 Under this season following a shutout win. Anaheim, who as I mentioned earlier is 4th in the league in goals allowed, has seen the Under go 16-9 this year when they scored 4+ goals the previous game. They came through for me big time on Sunday by rallying to defeat Colorado in overtime, 4-3. They aren't likely to have John Gibson between the pipes here as he left the Colorado game after being run into during the 1st period. But I feel they'll shut down the Wild nevertheless. Minnesota probably turns to Devan Dubnyk in goal and he's second in the league w/ five shutouts (including the one two nights ago). He also has a .949 save percentage his L4 starts. 10* Under Wild/Ducks

10* St. Louis (7:40 ET): This MLB season appears to be as "top heavy" as I've ever seen as virtually all prognosticators are going w/ the same exact six division winners while there's a real dearth of Wild Card contenders. Over in the National League, we know the Nationals, Cubs and Dodgers are all going to be good. But after that, it's anybody's guess. Two teams that are at least "trying" in 2018 are the Cardinals and Brewers. Both are fancying themselves as WC contenders, if not challengers to the Cubs in the Central Division. The Brew Crew made a lot of high-profile additions in the offseason, garnering plenty of respect in the marketplace. But I feel they are overrated coming into the year. Now they have opened 4-1 w/ a win yday, but that also includes a sweep of the sorry Padres. 

St. Louis is now 2-3. They opened their season by dropping two of three to the Mets, in Queens. They came to Milwaukee and took Monday's series opener, pretty convincingly in fact (won 8-4), but then lost again yday by one run. However, for the first time in this series and only second time all year, the Redbirds find themselves favored on the money line here. They won the previous occasion (beat the Mets 5-1) and should do the same again here. Last night was an absolutely BRUTAL loss as the Cards allowed the Brewers to score a total of four times in the eighth and ninth innings, including B2B home runs to end the game. So they were well in position to win for a third straight time, only to fall short. It's funny because St. Louis actually opened the game w/ B2B HR's. According to MLB.com, it was the only game in history to both open and end w/ back to back home runs. Interesting! 

The two starting pitchers for tonight are both coming off rough first outings in 2018. Carlos Martinez is someone I actually played against on Opening Day (vs. Noah Syndergaard and the Mets) and he made it easy for me by issuing six walks in just 4 1/3 IP (Cards lost 9-4). But he's had Milwaukee's number through the years, posting a 2.18 ERA in 23 career appearances against them. He's pitched particularly well here at Miller Park as well. Brewers' starter Jhoulys Chacin also pitched poorly in his first start of the season, but the difference is his team was still able to come away w/ the victory. Chacin lasted only 3 1/3 innings and gave up seven hits (two home runs), yet the Brewers still beat San Diego 8-6 on Friday. That is one of three late inning rallies by the team, last night being the latest. But Chacin has fared terribly against St. Louis in his career, going winless (0-5) in six career starts w/ a 6.10 ERA. The fact that he has a 6-0 team start record dating back to the start of September last year is highly misleading as San Diego didn't exactly let him go for no reason. I view the Cards as the better team here and Chacin and the Brew Crew were fortunate to win his first start, and last night for that matter, as well. 10* St. Louis

10* Over Mavs/Magic (7:05 ET): Dallas rewarded me last night by beating Portland outright, 115-109, as 8.5-pt dogs. It was their highest scoring effort in some time as you'd have to go all the way back to March 16th to find the last time they scored 115 pts in a game. Not only that, but they'd been held under 100 in four of the five games previous to last night. While a team that's simply "playing out the string" at this point, note the Mavericks are far better than their record shows. I've made this point numerous times this year as their YTD point differential is indicative of a 31-win team, not a 24-win one (current record is 24-53). They are much closer in point differential to the 33-43 Lakers then they are to any of the other three "bottom-feeders" in the Western Conference. We're talking a per game point differential of only -2.5. 

Orlando also won last night, albeit in far more commanding (and low-scoring!) fashion. They clobbered the Knicks 97-73 thanks to a big second half where they held NY to only 28 points total! Incredibly, the Knicks missed 14 of their last 17 shots from the field, taking what was only a five-point game and transforming it into a total beatdown. The victory was among the Magic's most lopsided all season and in fact it was their first by double digits in nearly two months. But this is NOT a team to be trusted coming off a SU win (7-15 SU/6-15-1 ATS this season in that role) nor as anything resembling home chalk (1-10-1 ATS when favored at home this season). 

Thus, my kneejerk reaction is to take the Mavs in this spot, but on the road and off a win, isn't exactly the most ideal spot for them either. It's actually the total that caught my eye here as both teams have been involved in a string of low-scoring efforts recently. That isn't likely to continue and in the case of the Mavs, we saw a far more high scoring affair just last night. It's not as if either of these sides are stingy defensively as Dallas gives up 106.6 PPG on the road while Orlando is giving up 108.2 PPG for the season. The Magic's last three games have shockingly seen neither they nor the opponent score 100 pts. That's also happened five times in their last seven games overall! That's something that's very rare in today's NBA and it's happened despite the Magic making at least 10 three-pointers in five of the last six games! Given the fact that neither team has anything to play for here, expect a more wide-open game. Last night was the fewest points allowed by the Magic in a game since 2012, so defensively they'll regress here. When these teams met in January, the O/U line was significantly higher (Mavs won 114-99), so there's some value here as well. 10* Over Mavs/Magic

8* San Jose (10:35 ET): Down the stretch we come in this NHL regular season as virtually every team has three or fewer games remaining on its schedule. Over half the playoff spots may be clinched, but there's still plenty to be decided. Take, for instance, the Western Conference where we basically know the two division winners, but little else. In the Pacific, Vegas has clinched the division crown (in an expansion year!). San Jose has been right behind the Knights most of the way though and would also like home ice advantage for a first round playoff series. To do so though, they'll need a strong finish. They lead the Kings and Ducks, their two prospective 1st round opponents, by two and three points respectively. The Sharks know they are in the playoffs, but make no mistake about it, they want the two points tonight.

Fortunately for the Sharks, they are at home tonight (where they are 24-11-3 - see the importance of home ice advantage in the first round?) and facing a Dallas team that was just mathematically eliminated from the playoffs after Sunday's results. Thus, motivation is likely to be at a season nadir for the Stars here and it's not as if they've been playing well of late. In fact, they've been quite awful, winning just two of their previous 11 games. One of those wins came Sunday, 4-1 at home over Minnesota, but it was "too little, too late" as later that night Anaheim rallied to beat Colorado, officially eliminating the Stars from playoff contention. Being on the road here does them zero favors. Not only is the team 14-19-5 SU away from home this season, but starting goaltender Kari Lehtonen is 0-6-1 his L7 road starts w/ a 3.84 GAA. (He's been asked to start more of late w/ Ben Bishop injured).

San Jose is looking to avoid a fourth straight loss here, so they're not exactly streaking (in a positive fashion) into the postseason. But prior to this three-game slide, they'd won eight in a row. The entirety of this current losing skid has taken place on the road against fellow playoff contenders. A return home should do wonders. They are outscoring visitors by nearly a full goal per game this year while doing an excellent job at controlling the puck. Following three or more consecutive losses this season, the Sharks are 4-1 SU. They are also 10-2-1 SU their L13 home games vs. Dallas. 8* San Jose

10* LA Angels (10:05 ET): The Angels lost for the 12th straight time to the Indians last night and did so in shutout fashion, 6-0, in what was their home opener. Talk about a disappointment. Cleveland is obviously one of the favorites in the AL this season, but the Halos are trying to fancy themselves as being part of that discussion as well. Many, myself included, feel this club is on the short list for a Wild Card spot. Coming off three straight wins and scoring 15 runs in the last two, last night was definitely NOT what they were looking for. Angels' pitching gave up three home runs to the Indians, one of them an inside-the-park job. But a key difference between that game and this one is that they are favored on the money line here. I feel it's justified and will call for the Halos to end their losing streak to Cleveland at long last. 

This will be the Indians' fifth straight road game (all out West) to open the year. They've alternated losses and wins to this point, dropping two of three in Seattle before this series. Josh Tomlin is the starter tonight for the 1st time in '18. It comes on eight days' rest as he last worked in the Spring all the way back on March 25th. Despite one of the lowest walk rates in the entire league last season, Tomlin finished just 10-9 w/ a 4.98 ERA. He probably won't be benefiting from an inside-the-park job again tonight and note Cleveland also scored an unearned run last night as well. Through four games, the Indians' lineup is batting a collective .191. The fact that they are averaging 4.2 runs per game seems somewhat fortuitous. 

The Angels' 4 and 5 hitters (Albert Pujols and Kole Calhoun) have gone a combined 1 for their last 27 at the plate. That has to change considering they are hitting behind Mike Trout and it will change (for the better). Andrelton Simmons is picking up the slack w/ three multi-hit games though and is 9 for his last 20. Also, two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani will be in the lineup (as a DH) after being given the day off Monday (he pitched Sunday). Garrett Richards will get the baseball, certainly hoping for better results than what he delivered in the season opener. He was handed a four-run lead in Oakland, but could not hold it. His team start record is only 4-9 going back to the start of last season. But he's a better pitcher than that record shows and I see him and the Halos picking up a big win (on national TV) tonight. 10* LA Angels

10* Dallas (8:35 ET): The Mavericks have really been shooting themselves in the foot lately. Whether intentional (tanking?) or not, the fact that their straight up record over the last nine games is 1-8 is highly misleading. None of those losses have been by more than 11 points and in almost every loss, they've led for a significant portion of the game. Sunday at Cleveland was no exception. As 11-pt underdogs, they led outright going into the fourth quarter. But from that point on, they either a) quit or b) simply forgot how to play basketball. They scored only 10 pts over the final 12 minutes and ended up losing by 11, a push for me and anyone else that was on them. I've said it before and will say it again here. This team has played far better than its record indicates. 

Despite being 23-54 SU, the Mavs have only been outscored by an average of 2.6 points per game. Based on their point differential, you'd "expect" them to have 30 wins on the year. To put these numbers in some perspective, the team right above Dallas in the Western Conference standings (Sacramento) is being outscored by 7.3 points per game this year. The Mavs' YTD point differential is much closer to the 33-43 Lakers than it is to any of the other three bottom-feeders in the West. They have little (nothing) to play for at this point, but at least they're at home tonight. Their record here is 14-25 SU, but they've actually outscored their opponents! Tonight is the team's second to last home game of the year, the final one not being until the regular season finale (vs. Phoenix). Also, the Mavs' ATS record when coming off a double digit loss is 13-4 this season. 

Portland is the opponent tonight and this is obviously a hot team. Since the All-Star Break, they've lost only three times (16-3 overall). Sunday saw them exact some revenge for one of those losses, to Memphis of all teams, as they won 113-98 as 14.5-pt home chalk. But the team's remaining schedule is going to be a bit of a challenge. After this, it's all playoff contenders w/ three of the four games taking place on the road. They are currently third in the West, but have the sixth best net efficiency rating and sixth best point differential. So there's been some overachieving to get to this point. Something to note is that they are shooting a league worst 27.9 percent from three-point range the L6 games. On the road, they've been not nearly as good this year. I know it seems as if Dallas is tanking, but taking the points is the way to go in this Tuesday night matchup. 10* Dallas

8* Toronto (7:07 ET): The Blue Jays had, somewhat surprisingly, dropped five of six at home to the White Sox the previous two seasons. For much of yday's game, they appeared on their way to another loss. They managed only four hits for the game, but one of those was a Russell Martin two-run HR that gave them the lead and win. The Jays have now won three straight going back to the series w/ the Yankees. This is a team that I've tabbed to improve in 2018 after suffering through B2B losing campaigns. I certainly give them a shot at the Wild Card. Pitching has been a strength through this three-game run, allowing just 15 hits total. Tonight, I envision J.A. Happ getting the job done against a poor White Sox team that should not put up much resistance. 

Chicago projects to be the worst team in the American League this season. They opened 2-0, but those wins came at home against Kansas City, another team whose outlook is hardly rosy. With just three games under their belt, they're still not through the starting rotation. Miguel Gonzalez makes his 1st start of the season tonight. He's no stranger to facing Toronto as he has a lifetime 3.63 ERA in 15 starts against them (7-4 record). But coming off a subpar 2017 (8-13, 4.62 ERA), I'm not expecting much here as he also had a bad Spring (5.40 ERA in four starts). The White Sox have not been a good road team these last three seasons (63-102 overall) and given the current state of the roster, I see that record only getting worse, not better. They are 18-44 in the +125 to +175 range (on the road) during that time. 

Happ beat Chicago twice last year, posting a 2.63 ERA. He started Opening Day, losing to the Yankees, but by no means did he pitch poorly. He allowed only four hits to the Yankees, but gave up three runs (two earned). One of those four hits was a home run and that is what cost him. He finished w/ 5 K's and just 1 walk in 4 2/3 IP. Toronto hasn't been hitting much so far in 2018 (.205 team BA), but since being held to just three runs in the two losses, they've scored a total of 16 runs the L3 days. Multiple hitters homered for the first time yday, Josh Donaldson among them, and he's now homered each of his L4 games against Chicago. As stated above, I expect Happ to pitch well in this spot. Plus, you can look for the Toronto hitters to pick up where they left off in last night's rally. The Jays are the far superior side here and I'll lay the price. 8* Toronto

8* Run Line LA Angels (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Angels +1.5 runs. There is no denying that Cleveland is one of the favorites to win the American League this year, but they've started 1-2 and that's w/ their three top pitchers on the hill against a Seattle club that's inferior to what they'll be facing here. The Halos also have playoff aspirations for 2018 and they have to be thrilled over what they got from the highly touted Shohei Ohtani on Sunday in a 7-4 win over Oakland. They took three of four from the A's and now it's time for the home opener on Monday. I can't see the Angels doing any worse than a one-run loss here.

Tonight's starter JC Ramirez may not have the "pomp and circumstance" of an Ohtani, but he was an 11-game winner last year. Ramirez is being charged w/ ending a puzzling 11-game slide against the Indians. Rarely, whether you're talking division rivals or not, do you see one team lose to another 11 consecutive times. It was an 0-6 mark last season. However, note that seven of those 11 losses have come in Cleveland. This wasn't a dominant home team last year, but w/ a better all-around roster this year, I expect improved play here. Another key besides Ohtani's arrival is that perennial MVP candidate Mike Trout is surrounded with some more talent in the everyday lineup. Ohtani, a two-way player, will NOT be in the lineup tonight. However, a number of hot hitters will. The most surprising is 2B Zack Cozart, who is only filling in for the injured Ian Kinsler. Cozart is 7 for 19 so far. Andrelton Simmons is 7 for 16 ad Trout is 6 for his last 14. 

Meanwhile, Cleveland batted only .186 in the Seattle series, getting outhit every game. Back to back home runs allowed in the seventh lost them the game yesterday. Now all three games were decided by one run, and it was the first regular season series lost by the Tribe since early August of last year. (They went unbeaten in their final 18 series LY, winning 15 and tying three, before bowing out to the Yankees in the ALDS). But as easy as it should be for them to win the AL Central for a third straight season, I don't think the Indians are going to win as many games in 2018 (compared to '17). Mike Clevinger will start for them tonight. He had a 14-7 TSR last season (making him the 2nd most profitable starter in the rotation) and that included a 2-0 mark vs. the Angels. But, one of those starts saw him get touched up for six runs in 4 1/3 IP. The Angels HAVE to end this streak sooner than later, right? 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5)

10* Michigan (9:20 ET): There are two ways to view Michigan's path to Monday's National Championship Game. One is the fact that they've been extremely fortunate. In five games, they have yet to play a team seeded higher than six. They benefited from the fact that the top two seeds in their region, Xavier & North Carolina, failed to make it out of the first weekend. (Now, it's worth noting the Wolverines did later go on to beat the two teams that upset Xavier & UNC). They also won a game at the buzzer (over Houston). Then, in the Final Four, they were matched up w/ the ultimate Cnderella (an 11-seed at that), Loyola Chicago. A more positive/optimistic view of their path is that they've advanced this far despite - pretty clearly - NOT being at their best in four of the five games (Texas A&M, the exception), at least on the offensive end. They even covered for me (big time!) Saturday night vs. Loyola despite trailing much of the game. 

Villanova has had no difficulty in this Tournament. They've won all five games by double digits, by an average of 15.8 points per game. They are 5-0 ATS. They so thoroughly dominated Kansas, a 1-seed, that the game was over arguably less than seven minutes after it started (led 22-4). It was a double-digit game the rest of the way as the Wildcats would go onto record a Final Four record w/ 18 three-pointers made and they shot 55% overall from the field. It was the fourth time in the tourney that they topped 80 pts. Now it should be pointed out that Kansas was - by far - the weakest Final Four team in terms of defensive efficiency. Michigan, as noted in my GOY writeup, is the strongest (3rd in the country). If you've been following this incredible tournament run of mine, then you already know defensive efficiency is the key metric I've been leaning on most. The fact the Wolverines are so stout defensively, and getting points for the 1st time in the Tournament, makes them quite attractive to me. 

Michigan allows only 62.9 PPG for the season. They've held four tournament opponents, Texas A&M the exception ironically, to 63 pts or fewer. NCAA Tournament opponents are shooting just 38.7% against them overall. John Beilein's team is also 7-2 ATS as an underdog. Though the Tournament opposition has been easier than expected, it's not as if they haven't beaten any good teams this season. In the Big 10 Tournament, they beat Michigan State and Purdue on consecutive nights. There is next to zero chance that 'Nova will shoot as well here as they did Saturday. In fact, I feel pretty comfortable in calling for their worst offensive performance of the Tournament Monday night. At the same time, despite the issues of shooting in a dome, I believe Michigan is due for a far better offensive performance than what we saw Saturday. While 'Nova is going for its second title in three years, Michigan will be trying to erase an 0-3 SU record in Championship Games since '92 (two losses by Fab Five). The Wolverines aren't likely to be blown out (only two double digit losses all year), so I'll take the points. 10* Michigan

8* Winnipeg (7:35 ET): The Jets are one of only three Western Conference teams to have clinched a playoff spot. While the President's Trophy is basically out of reach at this point (trail Nashville by seven points w/ four games to go), this is probably Canada's best hope of ending the nation's embarrassing Stanley Cup drought, which is set to hit a quarter century this Spring. The Jets are pretty clearly a top five team in the league heading into the playoffs and only them and the Bruins can claim to be top five in both goals scored and goals allowed. Tonight, they continue a tour through the Eastern provinces w/ a stop in Ottawa to face the lowly Senators. Given both season-long as well as recent form, this should be a "layup" for the superior club.

While Winnipeg is roaring towards the postseason, Ottawa is simply playing out the string. While the Jets are a top five team, the Senators are pretty clearly a bottom five team. Only the division rival Sabres have fewer points and a worse goal differential and by season's end, it's possible that the Sens end up at the very bottom of both categories. They are playing like a team that just wants the season to end as they ended March by dropping seven of the last eight games (only win coming in overtime). You'd have to go back to March 13th, almost three weeks ago, to find the last time the Senators won a game in regulation. They were shutout Saturday in Detroit (lost 2-0) and are also next to last in the league in goals allowed. Really, I have nothing positive to say about this team. 

This is the final home game of the season in Ottawa, but I'm not sure that matters given the team has won just 16 times in 40 tries here at the Continental Tire Center. They did win their last time here, 3-2 over Florida (in OT), but incredibly have never won more than two in a row at home all season! Goaltending has not been kind all season and tonight's likely starter Craig Anderson has been horrible of late w/ an .864 save percentage his L4 starts. Meanwhile, Winnipeg will again turn to Connor Hellebuyck, who is turning in a Vezina-worthy campaign w/ 41 wins. The Jets have won seven of eight, the lone loss coming at the start of this road trip (in Chicago). While the Jets haven't been nearly as good on the road as they've been at home this season, on Saturday they beat a good Toronto team, 3-1. They are 20-9 SU against teams w/ losing records and Ottawa is an awful 5-20 SU when off a loss by two or more goals. 8* Winnipeg

8* Pittsburgh (1:10 ET): After playing a doubleheader on Sunday (swept the Tigers), you might think that the Pirates are at a bit of a disadvantage Monday. But they are returning home where they'll now play under "NL rules" (i.e. no DH) against an American League team. It's early enough in the season where I don't view fatigue from "playing two" the previous day to be considered any real factor. Plus, the reason for yday's doubleheader was a rainout Saturday, so the Bucs have already had a day off. Today, they'll welcome in a Minnesota club that I'll be looking to play AGAINST more often than not in 2018. That's because regression is only natural following last year's stunning jump from 59 (in '16) to 85 wins and a Wild Card berth. This is a good price on the 3-0 Bucs in their home opener. 

The Twins opened their season by taking two of three from Baltimore. They lost Opening Day in extra innings, but bounced back w/ convincing wins by scores of 6-2 and 7-0. Now they are 10-4 the L2 seasons following a shutout win. Sunday saw starter Jose Berrios pitch a three-hitter in his first career game. But the starting rotation is NOT the strength of this Twins team. Today, it will be Lance Lynn getting the baseball, his first start in a Minnesota uniform since coming over from St. Louis via free agency. But the Pirates are no strangers to Lynn. They've faced him 23 times and the results haven't been that good for the right-hander, who is only 7-7 (just 4 quality starts) w/ a 5.10 ERA. Remember that the Twins, an AL team, are at somewhat of a disadvantage here due to losing the DH. Lynn is used to hitting, but it's clearly a downgrade in the lineup. Minnesota was favored on the ML only 73 times last season, making them a clear overachiever that is due to regress in 2018. 

Pittsburgh will counter Lynn w/ Jameson Taillon. While Lynn is two years removed from Tommy John surgery, Taillon had his own "trials and tribulations" as he fought cancer last season. Despite that, he still managed to go 8-7 in 25 starts his rookie season. He also looked sharp in his last Spring start, tossing three scoreless innings. The Twins lineup, when at full strength, is pretty formidable. But Taillon gets a break here w/ the game contested under NL rules. Now Pittsburgh took full advantage of the DH in Detroit, scoring 13 and 8 runs in two of the three games. But they also won a 1-0 game yday. They've won four straight home openers and like I said earlier, this is a good price on them. Also, the Twins are just 48-72 in day games the L3 seasons. 8* Pittsburgh

8* Anaheim (9:05 ET): This is a HUGE game in the Western Conference playoff picture. The way things stand now is that both Anaheim and Colorado would be Wild Card teams were the regular season to end today. It doesn't though and both teams desperately could use the two points here. The Ducks just won another huge home game on Friday, beating the Kings 2-1 in overtime. That gives them 93 points, keeping them one back of LA and one ahead of Colorado. Both teams got a major break last night when St. Louis (who also has 92 pts) was blown out (6-0!) in Arizona. But even off a win themselves (5-0 over Chicago) their last time out, the Avs are in no position to be rejoicing. That's because top goaltender Semyon Varlamov (lower-body injury) has been lost for the remainder of the regular season, which could end up costing them a playoff berth.

Varlamov was in the midst of turning in a stellar effort vs. Chicago, stopping all 30 shots he'd faced, when he was skated into late in the game. Let's also point out that was a home game for the Avs. A big reason they have improved so much after last season's 48-point disaster has been their strong play at the Pepsi Center where they've gone 27-12-1 SU this year. On the road, they're only 15-17-6 SU. Three of their final four games are away from home as tonight marks the beginning of the dreaded three-game California trip (will play at LA and San Jose next). They then close things out w/ what sets up as a possible "play-in" game vs. St. Louis, which is at home. 

Anaheim is also a strong home team as their record here at the Honda Center is 23-10-5 SU. They were 7-1 at home in March. There's a lot to like about this Ducks' team, namely that they are 4th in goals allowed. Goalie John Gibson has been the driving force behind that. Since the All-Star Break, he's gone 14-4-2 and leads the league in goals against average (1.93) w/ a top three save percentage as well (.938). Three of Colorado's five goals Friday came via the power play, but I would expect no such thing to take place here as Anaheim is 4th in penalty killing. With Varlamov out, Colorado's goaltending situation is a lot less fluid as backup Jonathan Bernier has been battling his own injury issues, which include a concussion and an infected cut that landed him in the hospital. There's a chance the Avs may have to turn to Andrew Hammond, who has started all of one game this season. That's unfortunate given the stakes and regardless of who is between the pipes for them tonight, I see Colorado coming out on the losing end. 8* Anaheim

8* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): Here we have two teams fighting for one of the last playoff spots in their respective conferences. Milwaukee is far safer in the East as they hold the 7th position (one-half game up on idle Miami) and have a five-game cushion over ninth place Detroit w/ only six games left to play. Barring a complete collapse, they are going to make the playoffs. It's just a question of where they finish as it could be anywhere from sixth to eighth. Out West, Denver is in a far more precarious position. They are two games back of the 8th spot. (This despite having the same record as Milwaukee). If the Nuggets ultimately fail to make the playoffs, it can probably be pinned on their terrible road record, which currently stands at 14-25 straight up. 

However, tonight Denver is at home. But laying points isn't what I'd do in this spot, especially as it marks a return home after a long seven-game road trip that took them all around the country. They've only had one day off since ending that trip w/ a 126-125 win over Oklahoma City that not only required overtime, but also a season-best 36 pts from Paul Milsap. Most would excuse giving up 125 pts as a product of OT, but the Nuggets are not a good team at the defensive end as they rank 27th in efficiency. (Two of the teams that are worse are Sacramento and Phoenix. The other is Cleveland). Sure, the team has been able to cover some of that w/ the fact they are also sixth in offensive efficiency. But Milwaukee is right there w/ them at the offensive end (7th in efficiency) while also ranking a superior 18th on the defensive end. 

The Bucks are playing the fourth and final game of a road trip here. It started w/ a loss to the Clippers, but they've bounced back w/ wins over Golden State and the Lakers. They too needed overtime to win their last game (124-122 over the Lakers), but note they were also up double digits going into the fourth quarter of that game. Of course, the same could be said for Denver against OKC as well. But I simply hate the spot for the Nuggets as teams often struggle in their first home game back after a long road trip. Plus, they're being asked to lay points and still don't have second-leading scorer Gary Harris, Jr. Wilson Chandler also left the OKC game w/ a nose injury and is listed as questionable to play tonight. The Bucks have revenge here for a 134-123 loss last month where the Nuggets hit an incredible 24 of 40 three-point attempts. That will certainly NOT happen this go around. 8* Milwaukee

10* Dallas (6:05 ET): The poor Mavs! This team has never been able to catch a break all season. Now if you want to point out that a team that's currently 30 games under .500 simply isn't any good, that's fine. But be aware that Dallas (23-53 SU) has only been outscored by an average of 2.5 points per game this season. That's infinitely superior to the team right above them in the Western Conference standings, Sacramento, who is 24-53 SU, but w/ a per game point differential of -7.4. Of the four "bottom-feeders" in the Western Conference, Dallas is clearly "best" and actually closer in point differential to the 33-42 Lakers than Sacramento, Memphis or Phoenix. Based on point differential, the Mavericks have a win expectancy of 30, making them the biggest underachiever in the league right now when it comes to actual vs. expected wins.

Tonight's opponent, Cleveland, is ironically one of the biggest overachievers in terms of actual and expected games won. LeBron and company have struggled through a lot of injuries, adversity and out-and-out bad defense this year. They are still third in the Eastern Conference mind you, but only one-half game ahead of Philadelphia and one full game ahead of Indiana, both of whom have better YTD point differentials and net efficiency ratings. The Cavs may be 46-30 SU, but w/ a per game point differential of only +0.7, you'd "expect" them to only have 40 wins. Not surprisingly, they have been a disaster at the betting window this year, particularly in the favorite role. When laying points, the three-time defending Eastern Conference champs are a money-burning 16-41 ATS. 

The Cavs' defense has generally been hideous all season long and they come into this game ranked 28th in efficiency, ahead of only Sacramento and Phoenix. While they did just beat New Orleans here at home on Friday, 107-102, it was a struggle and they trailed much of the game. The Cavs' home record may be 26-11 SU, but they're only outscoring visiting teams by 1.0 PPG! Kevin Love may be back in the lineup after suffering a concussion, but PG George Hill was injured in the game vs. New Orleans and Kyle Korver remains out as well. Dallas may only have nine road wins all season and they've dropped seven of eight overall. But none of those losses have been by more than 10 points. They lost by one at home to Minnesota on Friday and are a healthy 31-24 ATS as underdogs this season. Cleveland has proven itself totally untrustworthy laying this many points and with a number of big games vs. Eastern Conference opponent looming this week, it will be easy for them to overlook this contest. I suspect we'll get Dallas' best shot and I'll take the points. 10* Dallas

10* St. Louis (1:10 ET): I played the opener of this series (won w/ the Mets), mentioning that BOTH teams are viewed as Wild Card contenders in this year's top-heavy National League (where everyone is picking the same teams to win the three divisions). I also mentioned that the Mets might be a good 'play-on' team this year as last season's disastrous and injury-filled campaign resulted in heavy money losses to the tune of -30.2 units. It would only be natural for them to have a bounce back season at the betting window. Sure enough, the Mets didn't just win Thursday's opener, they also won Saturday (teams had Friday) off and are now looking for a sweep of the Redbirds. But, at least for one day, I'm switching course as St. Louis is favored here and for good reason. 

Sunday's starting pitching matchup decidely favors the road team as Luke Weaver will get the basebal for the Cardinals. Weaver had an 8-2 team start record in '17 w/ the Cards winning all four road starts. The Mets have never faced him. Given some poor play in the field yday, Weaver best be on his 'A-Game' today. I think he will be. While his last two starts of '17 weren't good, that came on the heels of seven consecutive outings allowed 2 ER or fewer. The Cards have yet to get quality start this year, but I feel Weaver is poised to give them one. Furthermore, this is a not a team that loses three in a row very often, especially to the same opponent. The bats should get going here too as they won't be facing Noah Syndergaard or Jacob deGrom today.

When healthy, the Mets have the potential to have a top five starting rotation. But Steven Matz certainly looks to be the proverbial "weak link." He's getting the baseball today, and that's a big reason why I'm fading the home team in this spot. Matz had an awful finish to 2017 and the team won only 3 of his 13 starts, only four of which were quality ones. He had an 0-4 TSR here at Citi Field and also lost to the Cardinals at Busch Stadium after giving up five runs in only 4 1/3 IP. Over his final seven starts of last season, Matz had a 1-6 TSR w/ a 10.17 ERA and 2.083 WHIP. Needless to say, those are absolutely dreadful numbers. The Mets have not started a season 3-0 since 2012 and while they've certainly looked like the better team in the first two games of this season, I see the Cards avoiding the sweep. 10* St. Louis

10* Golden State (10:05 ET): The Warriors are finally getting closer to full strength. Steph Curry remains out, but for the first time in more than three weeks, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson are set to share the court together. That should be more than enough to breeze by the lowly Kings, a team the Dubs have predictably owned for the last several seasons. But despite being locked into the second seed in the Western Conference, the Warriors won't be w/o motivation here. Not only are they on their longest losing streak of this season (three games), but they have some revenge to exact against Sacramento, who won 98-93 in Oakland two weeks ago. With three of the "Big Four" healthy, the line here should be a lot closer to where my power rankings suggest it should be (-14). Lay the points. 

The Warriors are only 3-10 ATS in March. The entirety of this three-game losing streak has come at home. Clearly, this is not a normal occurrence in Golden State. Durant returned two nights ago vs. Milwaukee, but did not last long as he was ejected in the second quarter for arguing w/ the officials. That left Green and little else to compete. The Dubs did shoot nearly 55% from the field, including 10 of 20 from three-point range, but shockingly, the Bucks were even better and it was a 20-point game going into the fourth quarter! Golden State was favored by four in that game, so we see Durant's effect on the line there and coupled w/ the probable return of Thompson, we can almost go back to handicapping this team in normal fashion. This is just the second three-game losing streak that the Warriors have suffered in the last three seasons. 

Sacramento has been at the bottom of the league all season. This is no surprise as they were expected to be terrible before the start of the season. Really, they're quite fortunate to even have 24 wins considering their YTD point differential of -556 (-7.3 per game) is indicative of an 18-win team. Only Phoenix has been outscored by a wider margin this season. While the Kings have been a little more competitive of late, they've still dropped five of six as they continue to deal w/ the distraction that is the ongoing protests outside the arena (in response to the shooting of an unarmed civilian by the police). I'm expecting the best performance out of Golden State we've gotten in awhile and it comes at the expense of one of the worst teams in the league. 10* Golden State

10* Under Blues/Coyotes (9:05 ET): With six straight wins, the Blues had fought their way right back onto the cusp of playoff contention. But they suffered a crushing loss last night, 4-3 in Vegas (OT, no less), and now find themselves tied w/ Colorado (92 pts each) for what would be the final Wild Card entry. The Blues have played one fewer game than the Avs, so that's an edge. Of course, both teams could also make it in as Wild Cards were they to finish ahead of whomever finishes fourth in the Pacific (currently Anaheim, who has 93 pts). So, if you're St. Louis, there's no time to lick your wounds over what happened last night in Sin City. There's another game tonight and it's against a far lesser opponent, that being Arizona. I like the Under in this game. 

Under seems like a logical way to go w/ this Blues team, which ranks only 24th in the league in goals per game, but 5th in goals allowed. They'd in fact gone Under in four straight before last night's loss, allowing just five goals total during that time. But last night's tilt got off to a much different start w/ the game tied 2-2 after just one period of play. That level of scoring came as a bit of a shock to me considering there weren't a ton of shots recorded in the game. Blues' goalie Jake Allen is usually a lot sharper as he's 8-1-1 his L10 starts. It will be interesting to see if it's Allen or Carter Hutton starting tonight. The Under is 9-5 this season when the Blues are in the second game of a back to back. One area we don't have to worry about w/ St. Louis is their power play. It ranks third worst in the league at 15.6 percent. 

Arizona has actually proven to be a "tough out" of late. They are 15-8-2 the L25 games, a far cry from when they won only nine of their first 42 games and were the consensus worst team in the league. The good thing for us though is they still rank second from the bottom in goals per game. That's even after a recent "offensive explosion" that's seen them score 4+ goals in four of the last seven games. St. Louis prides itself on not giving up many shots (just 25.2 the L5 games) nor many goals (just 1.8 per game L5). So I don't see the Coyotes scoring much here. So the burden largely falls on goaltender Antii Raanta, who should be up to the challenge. In his last four starts, Raanta has a save percentage of .951. He has faced the Blues twice this year and stopped 61 of 65 shots. 10* Under Blues/Coyotes

10* Michigan (6:09 ET): In the more unlikely of the two national semifinal matchups, we have #3 seed Michigan vs. #11 seed Loyola Chicago. The latter is the lowest seed ever to make a Final Four, matching the achievement set by former Missouri Valley member Wichita State back in 2013. Ironically, that was the same year that Michigan last made the Final Four! Both of these squads wound up w/ far easier than expected paths to San Antonio. Incredibly, the Wolverines did not have to defeat a team seeded higher than sixth to win their region! The two top seeds in their region, Xavier and North Carolina, failed to make it out of the first weekend. However, after their own close call vs. Houston in the second round (won at the buzzer), the Maize and Blue did defeat the teams (Texas A&M, Florida St) that ousted those top two seeds. Like Michigan, Loyola also saw the top two seeds in its region fall in the first weekend. They did beat Tennessee (a 3-seed) in Rd 2, but other than that, they also didn't beat a team seeded higher than sixth. Again, just like Michigan, they beat a 7-seed (Nevada) in the Sweet 16 and then a 9-seed (Kansas St) in the Elite 8. 

While we've established that Michigan and Loyola had similar paths to this point, that doesn't necessarily mean the two sides are equal. I don't think there's any disputing the Wolverines are better on paper (that's why they're favored). They also have the highest defensive efficiency rating of any of the Final Four teams and if you've been following this great Tournament run of mine, then you know that's the key metric I've been leaning on throughout. While Michigan shot astronomically well in the 99-72 win over Texas A&M (I had 'em there!), they've been below average offensively in the other three wins (scored 61, 64 and 58 pts). Here, I envision a scenario where they continue to play well defensively, while at the same time shooting the ball better. I don't think that's a unrealistic scenario. After all, they have allowed just 63.1 PPG over the course of the season and only two of their last 12 opponents have topped 64 points. Offensively, they are shooting at a 47% clip this season, but have been below that in three of four Tournament games. Even in the spacious Alamodome, I expect their three-point shooting to be better than it was against Houston and Florida St (combined 12 of 52). 

Loyola's first three tournament wins were by a combined four points, two of them won on a shot in the final seconds. Then, they blew out Kansas State 78-62 on a hot shooting night where they finished 57.4% from the field. It was the third straight game the Ramblers shot 50% or better. They are a ridiculous 56% from the field the L2 games. Needless to say that's not happening here. Not against a Michigan team that is #3 in the country in defensive efficiency. It's pretty clear to me that the Wolverines are not only the best team Loyola will have faced in this tournament, but all year as well. Obviously, the same is not true the other way around. In fact, I would rank both Houston and Texas A&M as better than Loyola. It's pretty crazy to me that the spread here is essentially identical to 'Nova-Kansas, despite the gap in talent here being far wider. Michigan has covered all five times this year it has faced an opponent that allows less than 64 PPG. 10* Michigan

8* Run Line Toronto (4:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Blue Jays +1.5. The RL turned out to be a pretty savvy wager for me yday as I had Colorado +1.5 and they lost by exactly one run after a late rally. Here, we have a Toronto team desperate for a win. They've opened the year w/ B2B losses to the Yankees, by scores of a 6-1 and 4-2. Now, a lot of team are going to lose to the Yankees this season. The Bronx Bombers are rightfully listed among the favorites to win the American League. But there's also been some "Wild Card buzz" for the Jays, who I expect to have a bounce back season after B2B losing campaigns. I've been patiently waiting to play AGAINST C.C. Sabathia and get my opportunity on Saturday. 

Sabathia had a shockingly good 2017, finishing w/ a 21-10 team start record. His ERA and WHIP (3.54 and 1.282) by no means "blew you away," but the bottom line is that if you bet on the "hefty lefty" in every start, you would have been up 12.4 units, which was among the best ROI's in all of MLB. I suspect that he'll be priced less favorably (meaning higher juice) this season and won't be anywhere as profitable though. Consider that out of Sabathia's 31 starts last season, only 13 were considered quality. He's 37 years old now. While the Yanks' first two starters - Luis Severino and Mashiro Tanaka - held the Blue Jays' bats in check, I have my reservations about Sabathia being able to do the same. Last season, he faced Toronto four times and his ERA was 6.21, which obviously isn't very good.

The Blue Jays have scored only three runs and collected seven hits so far against Yankee pitching. That obviously needs to change in order to get into the win column. For the reasons stated above, I believe it will today vs. Sabathia. I also like today's starter for Toronto, Marco Estrada. In 24 career starts vs. the Yankees, he has a 12-5 record. With the Aaron Hicks injury, there's changes to the Yankees' lineup that could adversely affect them not only at the plate, but also in the field. Estrada has been a workhorse these last two seasons, ranking just outside the top 25 in innings pitched. I expect the Toronto hitters to fare a lot better today and thus a quality start from Estrada gives the team an excellent shot at winning. They'll do no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Toronto (+1.5)

8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): I've been waiting for a bit of "Portland regression" for awhile now. Despite the increasing likelihood of them finishing 3rd in the West (2.5 games up on Spurs/Thunder), the Blazers are only sixth in the Conference when it comes to point differential and net efficiency. But how could anyone have anticipated regression would have taken place at the hands of lowly Memphis? Playing the second game of a back to back (and third game in four nights) at the end of road trip (and no Damian Lillard), the Blazers lost 108-103 to the Grizzlies Wednesday night. Lillard is expected back in the lineup here (birth of first child), but the underrated Moe Harkless (starting small forward) will not be as his regular season is likely done after suffering a knee injury in the loss to Memphis. I'm going to grab the points w/ the Clippers.

Despite Wednesday's loss, Portland remains 24-8 SU in its last 32 games. They won 13 in a row at one point, the last game of that streak ironically being a win over these Clippers. That game took place in LA w/ the Clippers as a slight 1.5-pt favorite. The final was 122-109, but since that time they have struggled shooting from behind the three-point line. The last five games, they are just 29.3 percent from distance. With a possibly distracted Lillard and no Harkless, I don't see this being the game where Portland gets back on track offensively. Note that when off a SU loss as a favorite, they are only 6-6 straight up this season.

The Clippers will not be a "sympathetic ear" when it comes to Portland's health. They have sustained a list of injuries that is too large to go through here. Yet, despite all that and trading away Blake Griffin midseason, Doc Rivers' team is somehow still in playoff contention. They enter tonight's game on a three-game SU and ATS win streak and are 4-1 SU/ATS the L5 games (only loss by five at Indiana). That has them at 41-34 SU w/ seven games to go and trailing 8th place Utah by only one game for the final playoff spot. They are only two games out of sixth place! Last we saw them they were having no problems with awful Phoenix, whom they defeated 111-99 as 11-pt road favorites. Note that the Clips are 16-5 SU this season when off a double digit victory. They are also 24-14 ATS on the road. I believe this desperate team, taking points, is a live dog Friday night in a must-win spot for them on national TV. 8* LA Clippers

10* Over Giants/Dodgers (10:10 ET): Before the season even started, the Giants were dealt a severe blow when ace Madison Bumgarner was hit by a line drive, fracturing his left hand. (He'll be out six to eight weeks). Given the kind of season Bumgarner and the Giants had in 2017, that's the last thing they needed. But pitching certainly wasn't an issue on Opening Day as they stunned the Dodgers 1-0 as +250 underdogs on the money line. Given that result and the kind of run suppression Chavez Ravine is known for, taking the Over might seem like a risk. But the O/U line is low here and I expect a lot more offense Friday night. 

The Giants were - by far - MLB's biggest money losers last season at -37.2 units. That's what happens when you're routinely priced as a playoff team, but instead finish in last place. A lot of those heavy money losses came w/ Bumgarner (-14.60 units) on the bump. But Matt Moore did no wonders for the team's overall bankroll either, dropping 11.85 units in his 31 starts. Johnny Cueto will get the starting nod tonight. He was positively mediocre in 2017 w/ a 4.52 ERA, which was a dramatic rise from 2016. Cueto hardly looked dominant in the Spring, surrendering 7 ER in 15 IP. Given his age and heavy workload through the years, I think it's fair to say Cueto's best days are behind him. By the way, the Giants are also w/o their closer Mark Melancon. So I expect the bullpen to struggle as well, at least until he is able to return. 

Last night, the Dodgers faced a pitcher that has had their number in the past. Ty Blach has held them to a .212 batting average in eight career matchups. Cueto doesn't have anywhere close to those numbers when facing LA as he's 6-8 lifetime w/ a 3.44 ERA. After the top three in the batting order went a combined 0 for 11 last night, expect changes to the Dodgers lineup tonight as both Chase Utley and Joc Pederson are likely to make their first starts of the season. Clayton Kershaw had two of the team's six hits on Thursday. Skipper Dave Roberts will be giving the baseball to Alex Wood here and he may have a difficult time following Kershaw in the rotation. Wood has a 5.35 ERA in nine career appearances vs. the Giants. I know these teams have a recent history of playing low-scoring games against one another, but this one sneaks Over the total! 10* Over Giants/Dodgers

8* Run Line Colorado (9:40 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rockies +1.5. Both of last year's NL Wild Card teams are expected to regress in 2018. How could they not? Each made a huge leap last season, the D'backs going from 69 wins (in '16) to 93 and the Rockies going from 75 to 87. Year to year regression is only natural in such circumstances. Now, of course, someone had to win on Opening Day and it wound up being Arizona 8-2, just like they beat the Rockies here at Chase Field (by a score of 11-8) in LY's Wild Card Game. But for tonight, I expect a much closer affair, one that could very well have a different result. Expect the road team to do no worse than a one-run loss in this spot. 

The strength of the Colorado pitching staff resides in the bullpen as they have fully embraced the modern trend of spending a lot of dollars in that area. Of course, a bullpen isn't much help when you fall behind early and last night saw starter Jon Gray give up three runs in the bottom of the first inning. The Rockies did pull within one run in the sixth, but then the aforementioned bullpen let them down by giving up five runs over the next two frames. Expect that group to perform better moving forward. But a lot falls on tonight's starter Tyler Anderson. Anderson did not have the greatest 2017, but perhaps his finest effort of the season came against this opponent when he allowed just one run in six innings against the D'backs w/ 10 strikeouts. 

Arizona was a pretty great home team in 2017, but the addition of a humidor (similar to what Colorado does for its home games) will drastically affect the baseballs being used here this season. Expect home run balls to drop precipitously. While maybe that presents a break for Diamondbacks' pitchers, this was an offense that feasted on the HR last year. So the changing of the baseballs may wind up having an adverse effect on the home team at Chase Field. Robbie Ray gets the starting nod Friday. Ray had himself quite the season last year as he turned in a 20-9 team start record and finished up +10.9 units. But his numbers at home weren't great (4.08 ERA, 1.346 WHIP) and he's a flyball pitcher, which can mean very inconsistent results. His best work generally came in the pitcher-friendly parks of the NL West (LA, San Fran, San Diego). In two starts made vs. the Rockies LY (both here at home), he allowed 7 runs in 12 2/3 IP. Again, look for a far different result here compared to last night. 8* Run Line Colorado (+1.5).

10* Over Bulls/Magic (7:05 ET): The last 10 times these teams have met, the Under has cashed every time. That's quite the streak. I'm going to lean not only on the "just due factor," but the fact that these two bottom-feeders aren't likely to play much defense in this relatively meaningless March affair. Yes, I'm going w/ the Over. Chicago played last night and for the third consecutive game failed to score 100 points (lost 103-92 to Miami). Even though the Bulls are 29th in offensive efficiency, going three consecutive games w/o scoring 100 pts is pretty uncommon in today's NBA. Even with all the blantant tanking that's going on the Windy City, the team still averages 103.1 PPG this season. They also are allowing 113.1 PPG on the road, which is just as key to this play. Orlando is no stalwart defensively either as they allow 109.1 PPG overall this season. Over is the play.

This game does carry some minor importance for the Magic as they are looking to avoid a season sweep at the hands of the Bulls. Three times these teams have met in 2017-18 and on every occasion, Chicago has emerged triumphant. The first two were blowouts w/ the Bulls winning by an average of 20 PPG. Things were a much closer last month in a 105-101 final. Orlando's big problem in the three matchups has been poor three-point shooting. They have gone an ugly 25 of 93 in the three games. That's an ugly 26.8% overall. While not the best three-point shooting team in the league, the Magic are at least making 35% of their attempts from behind the arc for the season. So I expect some pretty significant improvement in this department tonight. Chicago is allowing 37.1% shooting from three-point range for the year. Orlando was 11 of 31 in its last game.

We can't really trust the Magic to cover here as they're a woeful 1-9-1 ATS as a home favorite this season. Furthermore, they just lost here to Brooklyn Wednesday night, 111-104 (were 2.5-pt underdogs). Recent Magic opponents had NOT shot the ball well. But Brooklyn made 12 three-pointers and shot 46.0% from the field. Even still, the last five Orlando opponents are only shooting 43.4% overall. That's not normal as this is a bottom 10 team in defensive efficiency (Chicago is bottom five). So, again, don't be surprised if the Bulls score more than anticipated here. The Over is 22-15 in Bulls' road games this season. Before last night, they had allowed 110 or more points in nine straight games. 10* Over Bulls/Magic

6* Puck Line NY Islanders (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Islanders +1.5. The Isles may be eliminated from playoff contention, but they still have some pride on the line as they look to avoid finishing last in the Metropolitan. They enter today one point behind the Rangers. Also, a win here would allow them to avoid a season sweep at the hands of the Maple Leafs. While I can't guarantee the Brooklyn contingent gets the two points here, I do feel that they'll do no worse than a one-goal loss. Four of the Maple Leafs' last five games have been decided by one goal, including a 4-3 win over Florida Wednesday night that I was on. The Isles are also off a 4-3 win here as they beat Ottawa on the road Tuesday night.  

The Leafs are going to finish third in the Atlantic. For most of the season, it appeared as if they were on a first round collision course w/ Boston. But the Bruins have just passed the Lightning for the division lead. Regardless, it is going to be a very tough 1st round draw as Toronto must face one of the top two teams in the Eastern Conference w/o the benefit of home ice advantage. I consider the Leafs the third best team in the entire East, but the big difference between them and Tampa Bay/Boston has been road play. The Leafs have a losing record away from home (19-15-5), another reason to fade here. Also, they've only had to play four "true" road games so far in March (had a neutral site game vs. Washington as well) and two of those came against league-worst Buffalo. Furthemore, 13 of their last 22 games overall have been decided by exactly one goal. 

On paper, a matchup w/ the league's second highest scoring team does not sound promising for the Islanders as they give up the most goals per game in the entire league. But they are a top 10 scoring offense as well and I believe are capable of keeping up in a "shootout" style of game. Tuesday's 4-3 win in Ottawa was probably "well deserved" when you consider the Isles were 0-5 SU in one goal games in March previous to that result. Three of those losses came in extra time, all in a row. As rough as things have been this season, I do believe they can win this game or at least do no worse than a one-goal loss. Remember, all we need is this game to be tied at the end of regulation. 6* Puck Line NY Islanders (+1.5)

10* Over Pacers/Kings (10:05 ET): Homecourt advantage for a first round playoff series is a very real possibility for the Pacers. They are currently fifth in the East, but only a half game back of (admittedly red hot) Philadelphia and a full game back of Cleveland. So finishing as high as third in the Eastern Conference is not out of the realm of possibility. No one expected this team to make the playoffs this season (myself included), so tip your cap no matter where the team finishes. Speaking of teams no one expected to make the playoffs this year, I bring to you the Kings. The difference between Indiana and Sacramento though is that the latter has "made good" on its prognostication. The Kings are simply one of the worst teams the league has to offer. 

It's been a tumultuous scene outside of the arena in Sacramento w/ large protests taking place over the killing of an unarmed civilian by police. The last two Kings' home games have been sparsely attended, not that there's any sort of huge demand to get in the building anyway. The team has lost both, failing to even score 100 pts either time. (I successfully played against them Tuesday vs. Dallas). As mentioned in the analysis for that game, the Kings are one of only two teams in the league currently not averaging 100 PPG. They've actually failed to hit triple digits in five of their last six games, though they've never been held below 90 pts. 

This is a pretty low total by 2018 NBA standards. In addition to Sacramento's anemic offense, another contributing factor to that has to be Indiana's 12-2 Under record this month. The Pacers' last game was a 92-81 final over injury-riddled Golden State. But something else to consider is that the Kings also rank 28th in defensive efficiency. It's been awhile since they've faced a team w/ any kind of potent offense and I expect Indiana to come in here tonight and score plenty of points. The first meeting between these teams took place all the way back on Halloween and the Kings made only two three-pointers and seven free throws! They'll certainly improve upon that tonight and they'll shoot better than they did Tuesday (40%) as well. Take the Over. 10* Over Pacers/Kings  

8* Winnipeg (8:35 ET): My, how times have changed. Can you imagine seeing Chicago at this price, at home, and not only not jumping on them, but instead taking the other side. That's the reality of 2018 though as for the first time in a decade the Blackhawks aren't going to be in the playoffs. They've been in the basement of the Central Division for some time now and that's where they'll finish as they're the only team currently eliminated from playoff contention. And it's not like the ML isn't justified here. The 'Hawks have a losing record at the "Madhouse on Madison" and are facing one of the top teams in the league tonight. The hosts have been in poor form as well, dropping six of the last seven games. This is a complete mismatch in favor of the other side. 

Winnipeg, meanwhile, is rolling. They have won six in a row, albeit all of them coming at home where they are now a fantastic 30-7-2 SU for the season. The Jets can still track down Nashville for the top spot in the Western Conference as they trail by five points w/ six games to go. Finishing in the top spot is less likely than not, but this team will still be a force to reckon with in the postseason. They, along w/ Boston, are the only two teams in the league to be both top five in both goals scored and fewest allowed. Now this six-game win streak hasn't exactly been dominant as the last four wins have all come in extra time and took place on home ice. But compred to the other side of this matchup, I see a vastly superior club. 

Now it does look like the Jets will be giving the unproven Eric Comrie the start in goal. Obviously, you'd rather see Connor Hellebuyck (40-11-9 this year), but Comrie will be facing a Blackhawks team that is a pedestrian 19th in goals per game and has a bottom five power play to boot. Chicago's own goaltending situation has been poor for almost the entire second half of the season, due to the Corey Crawford injury. In the 50 games Crawford has NOT started in, the team's record is an ugly 15-35 SU! Winnipeg is challenging for the top goal differential in the sport while Chicago is legitimately bad at this point of the season, well behind the rest of a strong Central Division field. 8* Winnipeg

10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Florida lost last night, so New Jersey still has a three-point lead for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. But the Devils better not get too comfortable, even though their remaining schedule is no more challenging than that of the Panthers. (Florida also has a game in hand). Tonight, NJ hosts Pittsburgh, a team we pretty much know WILL be in the playoffs. The Pens are not likely to catch Washington for the top spot in the Metro, so they're left to fend for second place, which would guarantee them home ice advantage in a first round playoff series. They enter the day tied w/ Philadelphia for second and are only one point up on Columbus (Devils are 4 pts back). Strangely, the Pens have been unable to beat the Devils this year (0-3 against them) w/ every game taking place over the last two months. That changes after tonight.

In fact, these teams just played last week. The game went to overtime w/ the Devils winning 4-3 at the Igloo. All three Devils' regulation goals came in the second period and they blew a 3-1 lead in the final 20 minutes. Pittsburgh outshot them for the game as well, 43-34. Though the game was at home, consider the Pens closed at -200 on the money line. Compare that to tonight's money line and it sure looks like there's some value on the favorite, no? The Pens are also looking to bounce back from an embarrassing loss at Detroit Tuesday night. They fell 5-2 as goaltender Matt Murray had a bit of a rough night. That loss also continued a pattern for the Pens that has seen them alternate wins and losses over the L10 games. You know what that means for tonight. 

Now New Jersey has won its last three games, the last two here at home. But I just can't see them beating Pittsburgh for a fourth time in the same season. There's no denying as to which team is more prolific offensively here as the Penguins are 6th in goals per game, thanks in large part to owning the top power play. Shockingly, they've scored only six times in three games vs. the Devils this year, but I look for that number to "jump up" after tonight. After allowing 4+ goals the previous games, the Pens are 23-9 SU this season. They are also 13-2 SU after a loss by 2+ goals. New Jersey will go w/ either Keith Kinkaid or Corey Schneider between the pipes. Kinkaid's save percentage is only .908 at home this season while Schneider has struggled the last few times he's been called upon. Note the Devils have allowed three or more goals in four of their last five games. They are also just 3-7 SU this year when coming in off a win streak of three or more games. 10* Pittsburgh

analysis soon

10* NY Mets (1:10 ET): Here's a couple of popular Wild Card picks this season. Everyone is going to pick the same three division winners in the National League (Nats, Cubs, Dodgers) and really you could say the same thing for the American League (Yankees, Indians, Astros). Turning to the Senior Circuit, the Mets and Cards have as good a chance as any of earning one of the other two playoff spots. I say this knowing full well the Metropolitans are coming off a disastrous campaign in which they won only 70 games and were outscored by 128 runs. But that had more to do w/ injuries than anything else. The core of their starting rotation (which has the capability of being top five in all of baseball) was almost never fully healthy. I like them to start 2018 out on a much better foot. 

Noah Syndergaard will get the baseball on Opening Day. His 2017 was emblematic of the team's overall poor luck. Because of injury, Syndergaard started only seven games. The team won only two of them, ironically the first two of the season. He made only two starts after April. But before tearing his right lat muscle, he had posted a 1.73 ERA and phenomenal 30-0 KW ratio. Despite being winless in two career starts vs. St. Louis, his ERA against them is 2.77. I absolutely love the hire of Mickey Callaway here as the former Indians pitching coach knows what it's like to manage a top flight rotation. He's got another one here, a group that is destined for massive improvement this season. The return of Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier coming in obviously strengthen the every day lineup. 

The Cardinals have actually failed to make the playoffs in B2B seasons, which is almost unheard of in the Gateway City. I think most figure them to be the most likely Wild Card team behind the three obvious division winners. That said, there are some question marks surrounding the Redbirds. They got a number of breakthrough seasons from different players last year and those may not be sustained. Carlos Martinez will start opposite Syndergaard on Opening Day, one year removed from a career-worst HR rate. He was the staff's most durable starter, but his TSR was only 17-15. Behind Martinez, I've got some concerns w/ the Cardinals' bullpen. There's a lot of turnover from LY and they appear to lack a dominant closer. This team was only 21-32 in the underdog role last season, a significant money loser. 10* NY Mets 

8* Chi Cubs (12:40 ET): It famously took more than a century (107 years to be exact) for the Cubs to finally win a World Series. So, last year's "failure" to defend the 2016 WS Championship was pretty easily forgiven by the Wrigley faithful. However, the fact is this remains a very talented ballclub, one that could easily win it all again. When you have a championship window like the Cubs have right now, one is nice, but two is certainly better. Coming into 2018 as the runaway favorite to win the NL Central and one of three clear favorites to win the entire Senior Circuit (along w/ Washington & the Dodgers), the Cubbies couldn't have asked for an easier 1st opponent. I expect them to win handily on Opening Day behind starter Jon Lester. 

Considering the length of time it took to win one World Series, those residing at the "Friendly Confines" have to somewhat envious that the Marlins have won two WS titles in just a quarter century of existence. Needless to say though, the Fish will not be adding to that number in 2018. This projects as quite possibly the worst team in all of baseball this season. The fact this team was still able to win 77 games a year ago (finished 2nd in a weak NL East) in the wake of the tragic passing of Jose Fernandez should be considered a minor miracle. But, needless to say, after saying goodbye to the likes of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon (nice work Jeter!), the record will decline greatly. A 100-loss season is a real possibility here as oddsmakers have pegged Miami for only 63.5 wins in '18. No other NL team is expected to win fewer than 70 games. 

Surprisingly, the Cubs went only 4-3 against the Marlins last year. But sweeping them, even in Miami, is a real possibility to start '18. It's bad enough that the Marlins' roster was purged in the offseason. But even the Spring has been unkind to the club as starting catcher JT Realmuto and starting 3B Martin Prado are now out of the lineup due to injury. "It's giving us some challenges," Marlins manager Don Mattingly told The Miami Herald. "It's not how we wanted to start the season." The lineup card Mattingly turns in on Opening Day will hardly resemble a major league roster. Jose Urena gets the starting nod, but while he turned in a solid 14-win campaign last year, his strikeout rate was relatively low and his ERA was 3.82. I expect regression from the former middle reliever. It's not as if Miami's bullpen is any good either. For the Cubs, Lester may have seen a decrease in velocity LY, but he's won at least 10 games in five straight years. He's a reliable option to give the baseball to this afternoon. The Cubs also project to have a top five bullpen. 8* Chi Cubs

8* Dallas (10:35 ET): The Mavs came through for me last night, so why not come right back w/ them? They were badly mispriced (as underdogs!) last night in Sacramento and the same holds true tonight in LA where they are (predictably, but incorrectly) an even bigger dog. As I've been saying for awhile now, Dallas is a lot closer to the Lakers than they are to the rest of the bottom feeders in the Western Conference. What I mean by that is their YTD point differential as well as net efficiency rating more closely mirrors that of the 32-41 Lakers than it does the 24-51 Kings. Dallas has only been outscored by 2.5 PPG on the season, which is indicative of a 30-win team (actual record is 23-51). For the record, the Kings have the point differential of an 18-win team while the Lakers 32-41 on the season, have played "true to their record" being outscored by 1.6 PPG. So as you can see, Dallas really is a lot closer to the Lakers than they are the Kings. Take the points. 

It's not as if the Lakers are at full strength here either. Leading scorer Brandon Ingram has been out of the lineup the L13 games w/ a hip injury and is only listed as questionable to play tonight. Whether or not he does is irrelevant to the play as one would assume that even if he does play, he's likely to be rusty. Only nine players suited up for Saturday night's win over Memphis, the lone time the Lakers have come out victorious in the last six games. Remember though, that's Memphis (who stinks). The Lakers resumed their losing ways Monday in Detroit, falling 112-106, despite 7 of 8 shooting from rookie Lonzo Ball (finished w/ 15 pts). Ball had again been struggling w/ his shot previous to that. Coming back from a four-game trip w/ only one day of rest isn't exactly a great spot for Ball and the Lakers to get back on track. 

Dallas snapped its own five-game losing skid last night, but as I said in my analysis, they'd been a "tough out" despite the lack of success. Four of the five losses were by single digits and the fifth, which came by 10 pts, saw them lead for a good period of the game. Last night, they led by as many as 18 before the Kings mounted a relatively meaningless rally. The Mavs are 30-23 ATS as underdogs this season and the Lakers aren't favored that often (especially by this many). Take the points. 8* Dallas

8* Toronto (7:35 ET): The Devils won last night, meaning Florida now trails them by three points for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. With only eight games left on their schedule and facing that kind of deficit, that pretty much makes this a "must-win" for the Panthers. Problem is, they're playing in Toronto against a very good Maple Leafs club. Toronto may only be third in the Atlantic Division, one spot ahead of Florida, but the gap between the two teams is rather sizable (12 pts) and has been basically all season. The Leafs are probably the third best team in the Eastern Conference as well. Only five teams in the league have a better goal differential. They're also 26-9-2 SU at the Air Canada Centre and have won 13 of the last 14 games here. 

Toronto may be an 'Original Six' team, but never have they won 46 games in a season. They come into this game at 45-24-7 SU overall. They blew an opportunity at achieving a franchise-record in wins when they lost 3-2 to Buffalo, here at home, Saturday. That snapped a 13-game home win streak as well (and also a chance at setting a new record for most home victories in a season as well w/ 27). Losing to Buffalo has to be considered extremely disappointing, not only because the Sabres are the worst team in the legaue, but also because the Leafs has a 41-27 edge in shots. Despite getting that many shot off, Toronto turned in its lowest scoring effort since their first game of March. This is a team that ranks 4th in league in goals per game and had scored at least four in six of seven games previous to the Buffalo loss. I expect a high-scoring effort from the Leafs tonight.

Florida helped itself w/ a 3-0 shutout of the Islanders on Monday. It was their fourth win in the last five games and they are 20-6-1 their last 27! But could it be "too little, too late." The Panthers were simply average for the first four months of the season and have never been in the top eight in the Eastern Conference. Their last four wins have all come against "bad teams" that are nowhere near playoff contention (Montreal, Ottawa, Arizona and the Islanders). They did beat Toronto back on Feb 27th, but that was at home and in OT. Plus, the Leafs had a 39-31 edge in shots. As hot as Florida has been over the last two months, Toronto has virtually the exact same record during that time. Add in their much better start to the season and it's pretty clear that the Leafs are the better team. Playing at home, they should win here and they look to be undervalued as well. 8* Toronto

10* Orlando (7:05 ET): I have no idea why this line would "jump the fence" (Brooklyn now favored) given how these two sides grade out rather evenly and the Magic are at home. Sure, the Nets have had the lead at the end of the first quarter in seven straight games. But they've won only two of them. Close losses (Nets have lost three straight, all by seven pts or less) do not justify a bad team being favored on the road, in my opinion. Especially the Nets, who have previously been favored on the road only two times all season. Orlando is off a win here, 105-99 over sorry Phoenix, and adequately rested (last played on Saturday). They should be the favorite here and I'll take 'em. 

The Magic had been struggling offensively prior to beating the Suns as they'd been held under 100 pts five times in a seven-game span. While it was by no means an "offensive explosion" Saturday night, they at least broke the century mark, and it would have been a lot more if not for a 12-point second quarter. That win snapped the Magic's own three-game slide. Now, I'm well aware that this team has produced only two win streaks since Thanksgiving! They won three in a row in early February, then B2B games earlier in March. But the line "flipping" certainly would appear to work to our benefit. Whereas the Magic are a money-burning 1-9-1 ATS as home chalk, they have a winning ATS record taking points here. Again, these teams grade out almost exactly even, meaning I'd have the Magic favored by at least 2.5 pts here. There's value. 

These teams have met three times this year and every game has been close (all decided by five points or less). Two of those games took place very early in the season (all the way back in October) and were high-scoring. The last meeting, on New Year's Day, was won by the Nets 98-95. The home team is 3-0 SU in the three meetings and key here is that Brooklyn has lost its last five visits to Orlando. When they came here back in October, they were 4.5-pt dogs. It's been a long time, but I don't see the justification for the adjustment in the line tonight. Another issue for the Nets is that they have allowed 110+ pts in 12 of their last 13 games. 10* Orlando 

8* Dallas (10:05 ET): Sacramento may be 1.5 games up on Dallas and a slight favorite here at home, but to me, the Mavs are clearly the better team in this battle of Western Conference also-rans. Only Phoenix can lay claim to having a worse point differential and net efficiency rating than Sacramento and those two are significantly worse than virtually every other team in the league in those departments. A 24-50 SU record clearly is not good, but for the Kings should be considered fortunate as they actually have the point differential of a 17-win team. Meanwhile, Dallas is being outscored by 4.5 PPG fewer than Sacramento and has the point differential of a 29-win team as opposed to a 22-win team (actual record is 22-51). Losers of five in a row, I see the Mavs picking up a win tonight. 

None of the five losses Dallas has recently suffered were of the blowout variety. Four were by single digits and the fifth was decided by 10 pts, a game that was very close most of the way (Mavs even led). Now the Mavs did let me down Saturday night w/ a 102-98 home loss to Charlotte. They had no answer for Dwight Howard (who finished w/ 23 pts and 18 rebounds) nor the Hornets' three-point shooting, which finished the game at 12 of 25. Fortunately for tonight, Howard doesn't wear a Kings uniform and Sacramento is shooting only 38.1% from distance. The Kings are one of only two teams in the league that doesn't average 100 PPG (Memphis) and defensively they are very bad as well (29th in efficiency). 

The Mavs have only eight road wins this year, but tonight marks just the 10th time all season that the Kings will be favored. They've been outscored in the previous nine. Now a 6-7 SU stretch actually qualifies as Sacramento's best 13-game run all season. But they just lost to a severely undermanned Boston side, 104-93, on Sunday. It was the fourth time in the last five games they failed to score 100 points. Dallas may or may not be a little banged up coming into this game, but Dennis Smith Jr is back in the lineup. Dirk Nowitzki is expected to play. Dallas is due for a victory while - to me - Sacramento is pretty clearly the second worst team in the league and due to lose. 8* Dallas 

8* Columbus (9:05 ET): The Blue Jackets have arguably been the hottest team in the league of late, at one point amassing 10 consecutive victories. That streak was broken Saturday night by another hot team, St. Louis, but the one loss shouldn't really affect our view of this club going into the playoffs. While they haven't clinched yet, the playoffs are where the Blue Jackets are headed, it's now only a question of where they'll finish and who they'll play. A third or fourth place finish in the Metro seems the most likely scenario, which would match them up w/ either the Capitals or Penguins in the first round. That will be a tough battle (especially w/o home ice advantage), but for now all we need to worry about is them beating a non-playoff team. I think they will tonight.

Though they've been a "tougher out" of late, Edmonton has arguably been this season's biggest disappointment. Fans had visions of a Stanley Cup run this year, but that never materialized as the team started slow and never really recovered. Officially eliminated from playoff contention, the Oilers are simply playing out the string at this juncture. After winning three in a row and seven out of ten, they did lose here at home to Anaheim on Sunday, 5-4. The game did go into overtime, but it was a terribly disappointing loss for the Oilers considering they led 3-1 going into the third period. Though it wasn't the culprit vs. the Ducks, special teams have been just abysmal for the Oilers this season. They rank dead last in the league on the power play (14.5%) and are 29th in penalty killing. The fact they are 27th in goals allowed can be directly attributed to the number of shots allowed per game, which are also among the highest numbers in the league. They allowed 38 vs. Anaheim.

Columbus happens to have the second worst power play in the league (15.3%), but for reasons alluded to above, that won't cost them here. They are also 9th in the league in goals allowed, giving them a huge "leg up" on Edmonton. Sergei Bobrovsky has been in top form of late (.949 save percentage L4 starts) and is expected to be in goal tonight. Over the last two months, he has gone 12-4-1 w/ a 2.01 GAA.  Note Edmonton is just 8-17 SU this year after scoring 4+ goals the previous game. They are also 10-20 SU after allowing 4+ goals the previous game. I know losing Nick Foligno is tough for C-bus, but they'll be able to overcome that loss here. 8* Columbus

10* Utah (7:00 ET): I'm a little surprised that Western Kentucky has been able to sum up the motivation here in the National Invitational Tournament. They were upset in the finals of their conference tournament (by Marshall), losing as six-point favorites. Now they were favored in the first NIT game, winning 79-62 vs. Boston College. But one might have expected it to end there. It obviously didn't though as they've upset USC and Oklahoma State, both on the road, to get here to MSG. They've now covered the spread comfortably in all three games, but here the line is a virtual non-factor (essentially a pick) against a Utah team that's desperately trying to salvage some dignity for the Pac 12 Conference. The Utes recorded an impressive upset of their own, beating St. Mary's, to get here. That was after home wins over Cal Davis and LSU. I'm taking the Utes to advance to Thursday's final. 

I had Utah in their second round win over LSU. Now homecourt advantage was a big reason for that, but still, homecourt alone wasn't enough to justify how decisive that win ended up being. The Utes won 95-71 as they led 30-11 after the 1st quarter (yes, we're playing quarters, not halves, in this year's NIT). They shot 58% from the field overall, made 14 three-pointers and all five starters scored in double figures. The game was never close as the Utes led by as many as 27 at one point. Impressive as that win was, going to St. Mary's and winning 67-58 may have been just as - if not more - impressive. Yes, the final score is a little misleading in the sense that the game did go into overtime. But look at how few points St. Mary's scored in 45 minutes of action. The Utes became the only team besides Gonzaga to win at SMU this season. The Gaels (previously 18-1 SU at home) were averaging close to 80 PPG at home for the season. 

Now, Utah's edge defensively won't be as pronounced here as it was each of the L3 games. Plus, they'll be facing a Western Kentucky team that has scored at least 79 pts in all three NIT games, including 92 in the upset of Oklahoma State in the quarterfinals. The Hilltoppers have shot 52.5% or better in all three NIT games as well, but I'll call for that number to drop - rather significantly - here as Utah is allowing its opponents to shoot just 41.7% from the floor for the season. Over the last five games, Utah opponents are shooting below 40% from the field. I realize WKU has the better record away from home, but note Utah is the only team left in the NIT field that was seeded higher than fourth (#2). I think this line is off and the Utes deserved to be favored here. 10* Utah

10* Under Flames/Kings (10:35 ET): Huge game here for both teams. Admittedly, Calgary is all but dead in its hopes of making the playoffs. They are nine points back of Los Angeles and St. Louis (who are tied for the final spot) and would also have to jump Dallas. That's with just six games left. The Kings are looking at either a third or fourth place finish in the Pacific most likely, the latter not guaranteeing them a playoff spot. Depending on the result of this game, their playoff position will be a lot more or less secure. I'm not playing the side though as instead I really like the total and am going Under. 

Coming into March, Calgary was right there fighting for one of the last playoff spots. But a dreadful month, particularly of late, has virtually taken them right out of contention. They come into tonigh as losers of five in a row. They've given up a total of 25 goals during that span, a frightening number to be sure, but have also been shutout twice themselves. Overall, they've scored just three goals in the last four games. All five losses during the current streak have been by at least three goals. I don't like their chances of scoring much here against the league's #2 team in goals allowed. The Kings also have the league's top penalty killing unit. That's a bad matchup for Calgary, who is only 26th in the league in goals scored and 27th on the power play. 

Incredibly, despite what's taken place on the scoreboard, the Flames have outshot 11 consecutive opponents. But the Kings typically do a great job at controlling the puck, thus outshooting them may not be a likely scenario. It's a virtual lock that we'll see Jonathan Quick between the pipes for the Kings. After earning at least a point in the first three games of a four-game trip (went 2-0-1), the Kings lost by one goal at Edmonton Saturday night. I see this being a low-scoring game. 10* Under Flames/Kings

8* Vegas (10:05 ET): Here, we have two teams whose respective home ice advantages rate among the very strongest in the entire league. Unfortunately for Colorado though, this game will take place in Sin City where the Golden Knights have set a new standard for all future expansion teams (in any sport) to live up to. That includes a 26-9-2 SU record at home. A somewhat pedestrian March (6-4-2 record) should not tarnish what has been an unbelievable first season of pro hockey in Las Vegas. This team is on the cusp of clinching a playoff berth and should win the Pacific Division.

What Vegas has been able to do in its first year of existence has largely overshadowed what has taken place this season in Colorado, a radical improvement that is among the best I've ever seen year-to-year in any sport. The Avs have nearly doubled LY's point total when they were - without question - the worst team in the entire league. The way things stand right now, they would be a Wild Card team and matchup w/ Vegas in the 1st round of the playoffs (#2 vs. #7 seed). But two teams - Los Angeles and St. Louis - are just one point behind. True to form, the home team has won both previous head to head matchups between these two this season. Colorado just beat Vegas on Saturday, 2-1 in a shootout, making this a legit revenge game for the Golden Knights.

That was the second straight loss in extra time for the Knights (both on the road), who should now be happy to be back home. Their one time hosting Colorado this season came very eary on and resulted in a 7-0 win. The Avs are only 15-16-6 on the road this year. Good news for Vegas is that they are 7-3 SU this season after scoring one goal or less in the previous game. They've allowed only three goals in regulation the last four games. They rank 8th in the league in goals allowed and third in goals scored. At home, their YTD goal differential predictably widens and is the second largest in the league behind Winnipeg. Off B2B closes losses and back home, there's a lot to like about the Pacific Division leaders in this spot. 8* Vegas

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): It's no longer a question of "trusting" the process, but rather how far can it take the Sixers this year (officially have clinched a playoff berth). This young team has made the proverbial "quantum leap" in 2018 and is now on the verge of breaking into the top five of my own personal power rankings. That's for the entire LEAGUE, mind you, not simply the Eastern Conference. Currently on a six-game win streak (2nd longest active streak in the league), the Sixers are percentage points ahead of Indiana for fourth place in the East, meaning they'd have the homecourt edge in a potential first round playoff series w/ the Pacers. They're at home tonight, facing a Denver team whose overall record isn't much different than Philly's, but in the tougher Western Conference, they're only ninth at this time. I'm going to lay the points here. 

If you're surprised the Sixers are favored by this many, well, don't be. This is a pretty strong home team (24-10 SU, outscoring visitors by 6.9 PPG) and also definitively better team than the Nuggets. That's reflected in both point differential and net efficiency rating. Both offensively and defensively, the Sixers' numbers improve noticeably at home. They're averaging about 1.5 PPG more here while giving up 2.4 PPG less (compared to overall season-long averages). Of the team's six straight victories, four have come here in Philly and the last three have all been by double digits. Overall, the team has won its last four games, all by double digits. They've scored at least 118 pts five times in this six-game streak. Rookie Ben Simmons has four triple doubles in the L7 games. Consider that they led Minnesota by 27 going into the 4Q on Saturday.

Denver finds itself smack dab in the middle of a seven-game road trip, which still has visits to both Toronto and Oklahoma City to come. After starting the trip w/ B2B losses (including an embarrassing one to lowly Memphis), the Nuggets have now won B2B games, first blowing out the Bulls, then beating Washington. Yet, they still trail 8th place Utah by 1.5 games. The Nuggets have not been a good road team this season, which is reflected w/ their 13-23 SU record away at home. They are also only 9-18 SU in games in which they are the underdog. Over the L2 seasons, the Sixers have been the best ATS team in the league, showing that the public & sportsbooks still aren't fully "caught on." Don't be afraid to lay this number Monday night! 10* Philadelphia

10* Oklahoma City (7:05 ET): After winning 13 in a row, Portland has suffered B2B losses. Both were at home to top teams, Houston and Boston, but the latter was missing key pieces (including Kyrie Irving), so that was a surprise. Losing that game outright marked the first game all month the Blazers did not cover (now 9-1 ATS). Tonight, the schedule is no less unkind as they must travel to OKC for an important Western Conference showdown. The Blazers are still third in the West, but the Thunder are now "hot on their heels" as they're 7-1 L8 and just a game back. At home, the oddsmakers obviously favor OKC and so do I. Lay the points.

Division games have not been kind to the Thunder this year, which is why they've spent the majority of the season not in first place in the Northwest (not like divisions even matter in the NBA), instead looking up at either Minnesota or Portland. They're just 5-9 SU and an ugly 2-12 ATS vs. the rest of the Northwest teams and that includes a 0-3 SU/ATS mark vs. Portland. Earlier this month, they lost up in the Pacific Northwest, 108-100 as 4.5-pt pups. That was hardly a good spot for the Thunder though as they were in the second night of a back to back, both on the road, while Portland came in w/ a day of rest. As touched on earlier though, OKC has gotten hot since then, winning seven of its last eight and the lone loss came on a buzzer-beater (to Boston). I expect a tremendous amount of importance to be placed on this game by the Thunder coaching staff and players. Going back to last season, they've actually lost to Portland five straight times.

Something to monitor here is the status of Portland's best player, Damian Lillard. There is a chance he may not play as his girlfriend is due to go into labor any time now. (The couple's son was due on Monday). A private jet is on standby for Lillard, so he could be out at a moment's notice. If Lillard were to miss this game, obviously that would make things easier for the Thunder. (Note: the line would obviously go up, but play is still valid). But with or without him, I expect Portland to lose tonight as we're starting to see them predictably regress a bit after the 13-game run, plus I have OKC rated as the better team anyway. 10* Oklahoma City 

10* Over Canucks/Stars (7:05 ET): Dallas has picked the absolute worst time to play its worst stretch of hockey this season. A seven-game losing skid, four of those coming by one goal, has all but sunk their playoff hopes. With St. Louis now having won five straight, the Stars are now looking at a five-point deficit to make it as a Wild Card. That's not insurmountable, but they'd have to not only jump the Blues, but whomever finishes fourth in the Pacific as well. As for tonight's opponent, well, at no point this season have they been thinking playoffs. Vancouver currently sits tied w/ Arizona for the fewest points in the Western Conference (61) and has been every bit as bad as was projected at the start of the season. 

I've written previously about the "transformation" of the Stars this season into a team that no longer relies on having to "outscore" its opponents. Two years ago, they won the Central Division despite being below average in the goals allowed side of the ledger. Last season saw them tumble down the standings as they ranked near the very bottom in the league in goals allowed (plus they were just 16th in goals scored). During that division winning campaign, they were - by far and away - #1 in the league in scoring. Fast forward to the present and they're just 20th. But they've remained in contention thanks to being a top 10 team in goals allowed, a huge improvement from last season. 

However, this losing streak has brought back the "Stars of old." They've given up at least three goals in all seven losses and 27 total. They did get off 42 shots vs. Boston Friday night, but failed to take advantage of four power play opportunities. It's been a pretty brutal schedule that has had Dallas facing some of the league's best teams, but still, you would have expected them to win one or two of these games. Tonight likely gets them back into the win column, but expect the game to be high-scoring. The winner of Vancouver's last four games has scored at least four goals every time. The Canucks are also mired in an awful stretch presently as they've dropped seven of eight. Expect both teams' struggles to keep the opponent from finding the back of the net to be the prevailing theme here. 10* Over Canucks/Stars

10* Duke (5:05 ET): Compared to the wild "left-side" of the bracket, the right side has been downright "chalky." Almost every year, it seems as if we get one 1 vs. 2 (seed) matchup and this year it comes from the Midwest Region in the form of Kansas vs. Duke. However, it's rather interesting that the 2-seed comes in favored. Doesn't surprise me though as Duke has been the better team all year. They also have a drastically better defensive efficiency rating than Kansas, which for me, is the kicker here. If you've been following this incredible Tournament run of mine, then you know defensive efficiency is the key metric I've been harping on the whole time. I expected the Blue Devils to be favored in this spot and will lay the points.  

Duke is the only team in the field to be ranked top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, making them a great value pick to win the whole Tournament. It's rare that a Coach K team actually has value (public usually over the Dookies), but this year is the exception. I saw many brackets that had them failing to get by Michigan State in the Sweet 16. Well, they caught a "break" in that Sparty was upset in Rd 2, by Syracuse, a conference rival that Duke was familiar with, key because the zone is something they're accustomed to seeing. Of course, it's been much ballyhooed that the Blue Devils are also playing zone and the move has worked to perfection as the last 11 games have seen them allow an average of just 61.4 PPG. Only once during that stretch have they allowed over 70 and that was to rival UNC (who scored 74).

Kansas bettors have suffered back to back brutal beats. In the Round of 32 (vs. Seton Hall), a last-second "meaningless" three-pointer went in, putting the final score at 83-79 (Jayhawks were 4.5-pt favorites). Then, in the Sweet 16, they led Clemson by as many as 20 in the second half only to win (again) by only four points. They were favored by five to beat the Tigers. That's too bad b/c even as a dog I'm not about to endorse Bill Self's team considering they have the lowest defensive efficiency rating of any team in the Elite Eight (46th). Duke is 9th, a huge gap, not to mention also 2nd in the country in offensive efficiency. Self has had his issues in the Elite 8 before as his record is only 2-5 straight up, including a loss to Oregon (as a favorite) last year. Meanwhile, no coach has more Elite 8 appearances than Coach K (since Tournament field was expanded). Duke did lose to Kansas (by two) last season, even with the Jayhawks making only 2 of 17 three-point attempts. But KU still finished above 50% overall from the field, which won't happen here as I simply cannot stress how improved the Blue Devils have been on the defensive end this season. 10* Duke

8* Texas Tech (2:20 ET): Villanova is 3-0 ATS in this tournament, basically the lone exception of a top team playing above the oddsmakers' expectations. In the second round, I stepped out against them once and paid the price for doing so as they whipped Alabama 81-58 as an 811.5-pt favorite. (Note: I haven't lost a Tournament play since!). That came after an easy win against overmatched Radford (who was playing for a second time in three days), 87-61 as 22.5-pt chalk and before a Sweet 16 win over West Virginia, 90-78 as 5.5-pt chalk. But now comes - easily - their toughest test of the Tournament in the form of Texas Tech. This will be the best defensive team the Wildcats will have seen all season, so you know what that means ... take the points. 

Texas Tech was a nice winner for me in the Sweet 16 as they "upset" Purdue (were 1.5-pt dogs) 78-65. All tournament long, I've been harping on teams' defensive efficiency rating and it's obviously treated me quite well. In this department, the Red Raiders now rank 3rd nationally. They moved ahead of Michigan thanks to the performance against Purdue. That means the Red Raiders are now - at least temporarily - the top defensive team left in the field. Purdue isn't held under 70 pts often (finished 0-5 when it happens), but Chris Beard's team was able to do it. Sure, you can cite the Boilermakers not having leading scorer Isaac Haas, but I don't think he alone could have changed Friday night's result. Texas Tech is holding opponents to 64.6 PPG on 40.4% shooting for the season.

The Red Raiders also have Keenan Evans. In my analysis for the Purdue game, I mentioned that a late season Evans' injury was the reason for a Texas Tech swoon. He was not at full strength for four games and the team lost all four. But now, Evans is back and playing at an All-American level. He had only 16 pts vs. Purdue (still a team-high), but is averaging over 20 PPG for the Tourney. Usually, Villanova's Jalen Brunson is the best guard on the floor, but that may not be the case here. Not sure I understand how Texas Tech comes in as a bigger underdog here than WVU did for the Sweet 16. Going back to that Alabama game, 'Nova was held below 40% shooting by a top 20 defense. Texas Tech is top four. Note that the underdog here has only one loss all season by more than 10 points. 8* Texas Tech

8* Pittsburgh (12:35 ET): Obviously, there's a lot that still has to "shake out," but we could be looking at a potential first round playoff series here w/ the Penguins and the Flyers. Both have spent the majority of their respective seasons in the top four in the Metro. Pittsburgh currently has a "leg up" for home ice advantage in the first round as their 90 points have them in second place (five back of division leading Washington). But hot on their heels are both Columbus (89 pts) and Philly (88 pts). I believe the Pens to be the better team here, so with them hosting here, I've got no choice but to give them the endorsement in this Sunday afternoon matchup. 

Now Pittsburgh is off a rare home defeat, it coming in overtime at the hands of New Jersey, 4-3, on Friday night. Since a three-game win streak earlier this month (which included a 5-2 win at Philly), the Penguins have alternated wins and losses over the last seven games. If that pattern holds, we know the result that is in store today. Note that the Pens have had little difficulty getting the puck on net recently. They outshot New Jersey, 43-34, their fifth consecutive game w/ at least 37 shots on goal and sixth time in the last seven that they've done so. In addition to the home ice (15-1-1 L17 games at PPG Paints Arena), another edge the Pens have here is their league-best power play (26.0%) going against the Flyers' 27th ranked penalty kill. In three games vs. Flyers this season (all wins), Pittsburgh has gone 4 for 11 w/ the man advantage. 

Philly's offense has been hot of late, scoring four or more goals in four consecutive games (18 goals total!). But this is a team that still only has four wins over its last 12 games. They did beat the Rangers, 4-3 on Thursday, but that was at home. Whereas Pittsburgh excels in scoring (6th overall), particularly on the power play, the Flyers are a decidedly average team that ranks 14th in goals scored and allowed. They have allowed five goals in each of the three losses to Pittsburgh this season. Some teams just have another's number and that is the case here in this division rivalry. 8* Pittsburgh 

10* Los Angeles (10:05 ET): As teams continue to jockey for playoff position in the Western Conference, there's a lot to like about these Kings, nevermind the fact they just walloped Colorado 7-1 on Thursday. Colorado has not been an easy place to win at for visiting teams (Avs are still 15-3-1 their L19 games there), yet the Kings made it look easy and are now 6-0-2 their last eight road games. The offensive explosion was certainly a welcome sight, but note this team is also #2 in the league in goals allowed and has the #1 penalty killing unit. It's a drop in class tonight (in terms of the opposition) and I see LA winning yet again. 

Now Edmonton is also off a big road win, theirs coming by a score of 6-2 over Ottawa. They've now scored 13 goals total the last two games and both were on the road! Impressive as that sounds, let's not forget the Oilers have arguably been this season's biggest disappointment. Coming into the year, their starved fanbase was thinking about a potential Stanley Cup run. The reality of the matter is that they are already eliminated from playoff contention. While they've been playing better recently, they've won three or more straight games only four times all season. Unlike the Kings, the Oilers have lousy special teams as they are 30th on the power play and 31st in penalty killing. So that's at least one massive edge going to the road team here. 

While the Oilers are simply playing out the string, the Kings are trying to lock down a playoff spot. They enter tonight in third place in the Pacific, tied w/ Anaheim. Two other teams (from the Central Division) - Colorado and St. Louis - are each within two points of them, so not even the Wild Card is a sure thing at this point. Thus, this really shapes up as a proverbial "must-win" for the Kings. They've taken two of three from Edmonton this season, scoring five times in both wins, before losing at home 4-3 in January. Note the Oilers are just 7-17 SU this season after scoring 4+ goals their previous game. Meanwhile, LA is 23-12 when facing an opponent that has a losing record. 10* Los Angeles

8* Michigan (8:45 ET): The third seeded Wolverines have caught numerous breaks during the course of this Tournament run. Poor shooting nearly cost them in each of the first two rounds, but they were able to overcome a slow start vs. overmatched Montana and then of course hit the buzzer beater to get by Houston. I thought the Maize and Blue came in drastically undervalued in their Sweet 16 matchup w/ Texas A&M, thus I jumped on them and boy was I richly rewarded as they absolutely thrashed the Aggies, 99-72, thanks to a spectacular shooting display (61.9 FG% overall), most notably from three-point range where they went 14 of 24. Before the Tournament started, I had Michigan making the Final Four and thanks to a far more favorable Elite 8 matchup than I envisioned, I'm sticking w/ that. Lay the points. 

Now, if you're a regular client of mine, you may recall that I had A&M in the Rd of 32 against North Carolina. One of the major reasons I then chose to fade the Aggies was that I didn't think there was any way they could come close to matching that performance against Michigan. So why am I not taking a similar tact w/ the Wolverines after Thursday night's incredible showing? Well, for starters, how about their defense. They are the top team left in the field when it comes to defensive efficiency (my key metric!) at #3 in the country. I'm confident in what I've seen from them defensively in this Tournament can/will be maintained here, thus negating any potential offensive regression from the Sweet 16. Then, there's the Elite 8 opponent. I had expected Gonzaga to be here (even before the Tournament started), which would have meant a significant disadvantage in fan support for the Wolverines. Instead, it's a Florida State team that doesn't play defense as well as Gonzaga or certainly Michigan. 

Now we should give some credit to the Seminoles. They came into this Tournament likely undervalued due to an 0-7-1 ATS run. But they dominated Missouri and have pulled B2B upsets of Xavier and Gonzaga. I had them against top seeded Xavier, but that was a top seed in name-only. In fact, I would have had any of the other top four seeds in this region (UNC, Michigan, Gonzaga) favored against the Musketeers. Nor do I think Florida State is as good as the last two teams Michigan has beaten, Houston and Texas A&M. This really is a dream draw for the Elite 8 for Michigan, who will certainly shoot better against the Seminoles than either Missouri or Gonzaga did. Of the 12 remaining teams in the Tournament, Florida State is 11th in defensive efficiency. Again, Michigan is #1. 8* Michigan

10* Dallas (8:35 ET): One could (and I will!) argue that both of these squads are deserving of better fates in 2018. But it was not to be for either Charlotte or Dallas due to a variety of reasons. The Hornets can't win a close game to save their lives (1-14 SU L2 yrs in games decided by three pts or less) nor can they stay healthy. Having Michael Jordan construct your roster isn't exactly a good idea either. As for Dallas, they dug themselves a huge early season hole and off-the-court drama has engulfed the franchise since the All-Star Break. But I've said it before and will reiterate it here yet again. Of the league's "bottom feeders," the Mavs are clearly the strongest team, confirmed by a point differential that is closer to the 31-win Lakers (who are nine games ahead) than the 24-win Kings (who are two games up). Maybe that's "damning w/ faint praise," but I'm taking the Mavs tonight. 

Now I also took Dallas in their last game, a 119-112 home loss to the Jazz. But that ended up being a "backdoor cover" for me (Mavs were +8!) thanks to a late flurry. They were able to outscore Utah 31-23 in the fourth quarter and made two late free throws to "steal" the cover. As fortunate as that may seem, the Mavs' luck was non-existent the game before as they never trailed New Orleans by more than six points until the final two minutes. They lost that game by 10, as eight-point dogs. So perhaps Thursday was just the Mavs "turn" to be lucky. Regardless, I believe tonight is their night to break through into the win column after four straight single digit losses. 

I was a little surprised this spread wasn't a little higher considering Charlotte is off a franchise-record 61-point win. Yes, you read that correctly. In a season full of disappointment, Thursday's 140-79 triumph over heinous Memphis will undoubtedly end up as the highlight. But it also works against them tonight. Memphis barely qualifies as a NBA team these days and there's nowhere for the Hornets' performance to go but down tonight. Charlotte isn't a good road team (12-24 SU) to begin with, so them being the favorite here is a dicey proposition. Plus, Dallas already won in Charlotte earlier in the year, 115-111. The Hornets don't put win streaks together very often (they come into tonight having won two straight) and having Dwight Howard back (was suspended for Memphis game) may actually be a negative. 10* Dallas

8* Detroit (7:05 ET): Typically, I shy away from laying this many points, even if it's the best of teams in the favorite role. So doing so w/ the Pistons might seem, on the surface, to be a bit risky. But never fear as they welcome in the sorry Bulls (who are playing the second of a back to back, and the third game in four nights). Detroit isn't dead yet when it comes to playoffs, though they currently trail eighth place Milwaukee by six games w/ just 10 to play. Thus the margin for error is slim. I see them blowing out the Bulls Saturday night in the Motor City. 

Chicago lost last night (of course they did!), to Milwaukee, so that did Detroit no favors. Even after being spotted a 10-pt lead after the 1st quarter, the Bulls still couldn't cover the spread as a home dog. They were held to just 44 pts in the second half and lost 118-105 as 5-pt pups. In case you hadn't noticed, the Bulls are a very bad team. They have the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference (been the case most of the year) and have lost four in a row, the last three all coming by double digits. This will also be their fifth game in the last eight days, so the situation is REALLY unfavorable for them, especially out on the road where they've only won nine times all season. They have won four times in March, but two of those were against the heinous Grizzlies. The other two were against Atlanta and Dallas.

The last time these teams played was earlier this month and the Pistons won by 16 here at home. They held Chicago to just 83 pts on 35.5% shooting. I see little reason why this one will turn out any differently. After a dreadful ATS stretch, Detroit has covered six of its last eight games. Yes, this is their first time playing back at home after a six-game West Coast swing. But the Bulls are the "gift that keeps on giving." They will be w/o their entire starting backcourt here as both Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine have been ruled out. Meanwhile, the Pistons have PG Reggie Jackson back and have played much better since his return. Blake Griffin also continues to play well as he's averaging 23.9-6.5-6.8 the L10 games. Since Jackson's return, the Pistons have won twice (both by double digits) and taken Houston into overtime. Lay the points. 8* Detroit

10* Kansas State (6:05 ET): Perhaps it has something to do w/ their #1 fan Sister Jean, but Loyola Chicago has gotten to the Elite 8 by winning their three games by a total of four points. That's pretty remarkable. I've been on the winning end of two of those games, the Rd 1 win over Miami and the Sweet 16 victory over Nevada. Similarly, I was on Kansas State in the Sweet 16 and they rewarded me w/ a huge win, beating favored Kentucky 61-58. Now both teams were more dominant than their respective Sweet 16 scores show as they each led virtually throughout. Now we are left w/ an unprecedented 9 vs. 11 (seed) matchup in the Elite 8. As has been the case throughout this Tournament, I'll side w/ the team that has the better defensive efficiency rating, especially considering the price here. 

Kansas State beat Kentucky despite shooting only 35% from the field. They were -15 in free throw attempts (a disadvantage somewhat negated by Kentucky making on 23 of 37) and were outrebounded 38-29. Yet, they still be a superior team and basically led throughout. This is owed to defense, which I can't harp on enough in this Tournament. They held UK to 38.1% shooting including 3 of 12 from three-point range. Kentucky is certainly a better team than Loyola Chicago or any team the Ramblers have beaten to this point. Yes, there was a little "divine intervention" for K-State in this Tourney as they became the first team in history to get to face a 16-seed (UMBC) in the 2nd round. But there was nothing fluky about the win over Kentucky, nor the 1st round win over Creighton for that matter. The Wildcats have yet to allow 60 pts in any game this Tournament and are now ranked #14 in the country in defensive efficiency. Remember they've done this despite basically getting zero contribution from leading scorer Dean Wade!  

I had a lot of respect for Loyola coming into this Big Dance, hence me playing them twice so far. But they got a fortunate Sweet 16 draw w/ Nevada, a team that had trailed at halftime in each of its previous five games, including three by double digits. After a slow start vs. the Wolfpack (initially trailed 20-8), the Ramblers took their own 2H double digit lead. Things then got close at the end (always does w/ Nevada!) despite the Ramblers shooting 55% for the game and making their first 12 field goal attempts after halftime. It was their second straight game shooting at least 50%, something that I don't see happening here given KSU's defensive prowess. Sister Jean or not, Loyola is very lucky to have advanced thus far (three wins by four total points!) while Kansas State has largely been in control of all three of its tourney contests thus far. 10* Kansas State

8* Texas Tech (9:57 ET): I have yet to play on/against either of these teams in the NCAA Tournament. Texas Tech has faced two tough defensive-minded teams thus far, Stephen F Austin and Florida and beat back both. Purdue was a somewhat popular choice to be upset in the last round as they had lost their best player, Isaac Haas, to injury in the 1st round win of CS Fullerton. But the Boilermakers played well w/o Haas and ousted pesky Butler, 76-73 (did not cover as they were favored by four). Oddsmakers are still adjusting in light of the Haas injury, but not by enough here in my estimation. Texas Tech is the significantly better defensive team in this matchup (#4 in efficiency vs. Purdue's #29) and has its best player (Keenan Evans) as close to full strength as he's been in a while. I like the Red Raiders. 

Evans has led the way for TT, averaging 22.5 PPG in the Tournament. Coming into the Big Dance, the Red Raiders had gone just 2-5 SU in their L7 games w/ virtually every game being close. Both wins were by four points and three losses were by three points or less. The key is that Evans clearly was not at full strength in four of those games due to a toe injury and the team went 0-4 SU. The one game he missed the entirety of was at West Virginia and coincidentally, that was the worst loss of the bunch. But now Evans is back to looking like an All-American and coupled w/ the Red Raiders' outstanding defense, that means trouble for Purdue. Texas Tech forced nine first half turnovers vs. SFA and contested all but two of Florida's three-point attempts.

Purdue being w/o Haas is a major loss. I thought it was being overrated vs. Butler, but Texas Tech is a tougher opponent and the Boilermakers will absolutely miss him here. Don't look for them to shoot 50% from the field here like they did vs. Butler or 11 of 24 from three-point range. Take Carsen Edwards out of the equation and the rest of the team was 22 of 35 from the field overall and 8 of 14 from three-point range. Unsustainable! With no Haas and a supporting cast likely to regress facing a team that is holding opponents to 40.3% shooting for the year, look for the Boilermakers to have a rough offensive night in the Sweet 16. 8* Texas Tech

8* Over Heat/Thunder (8:05 ET): This is an important game for both teams, who are each fighting to strengthen their playoff position in the two respective conferences. Miami comes in at 7th in the East, having won three straight. One of those wins (over the Lakers) was by a single point and another in double OT (vs. Denver). So it's hardly been a dominant stretch of basketball, though they did beat the Knicks by 21 on Wednesday (but that was at home). Oklahoma City is currently tied for 4th (w/ New Orleans) in the far tougher West, so earning homecourt advantage for a 1st rd playoff series is the goal here. But while the Thunder are only two games back of third place Portland, they're actualy closer to being the 8-seed (only 1.5 games difference). So a loss for them here could prove deadly. 

I think the pointspread is just right here, so I'm not making a play on that. Instead, let's look at the total. Miami's recent averages are obviously skewed by the double overtime game vs. Denver. But, two other times in the L5 games, they have scored 119 pts in regulation. They've shot 55% from the floor in the last two games - combined. While it's a "tough ask" to call for such a percentage yet again, Oklahoma City hasn't exactly been defending well recently. Over their last five games, the Thunder are giving up an average of 109.2 PPG. Now that number is a little skewed by a 132-125 win in Toronto last weekend, but this is a team that has given up 100+ pts in 13 of its last 16 games. 

Of course, OKC can score w/ the best of them as well. They did not shoot the ball well in a disappointing one-point loss to short-handed Boston on Tuesday (just 41.2 FG%). But keep in mind that the Celtics are also the best defensive team in the league. I fully anticipate some sort of "offensive bounce-back" from the Thunder tonight, especially playing at home where they average 108.0 PPG. At Toronto, they shot better than 55% from the floor. A huge factor for the Thunder as of late has been the arrival of Corey Brewer, who has come in and shot 38.2% from three-point range since signing (7 games). Miami is going to be w/o its best defender in this game (Hassan Whiteside) and has struggled to beat the top teams in the Western Conference this year. Though the last seven meetings between these teams have all gone Under, I see a different result taking place tonight. 8* Over Heat/Thunder

10* New York (7:35 ET): Minnesota has taken a bit of a tumble down the Western Conference standings, though it's really no fault of their own. It seems as if every other playoff contender has ripped off some sort of huge win streak over the last month, thus the likes of Portland and New Orleans have passed them and Utah is currently tied w/ them for seventh. There is also the Jimmy Butler injury, which you knew would take its toll. Since losing their best player, the T'wolves have gone just 5-5 straight up. This recent "decline" is a little interesting to me as - before the season - I predicted Minny would finish below their projected season win total of 48.5. So it seems the market has taken hold here. Without Butler, this seems like too many points to lay, even if it's the Knicks that they are playing. Take the points. 

The Knicks' fate was essentially sealed when they lost their best player, Kristaps Porzingis, to injury. The big difference between them losing Porzingis and Minnesota losing Butler is that NY knew Porizingis was done for the year and they've, well, acted accordingly. They have just three wins in their last 28 games, though two of them have come in the last seven days and both were at home. They beat Charlotte 124-101 as six-point dogs, then Chicago 110-92 as a five-point favorite on Friday and Sunday respectively. Their losing ways then resumed w/ a 21-point loss at Miami (as 9.5-pt dogs) on Wednesday. 

As bad as the Knicks have been since Porzingis went down, they have remained competitive at home where their record is still above .500. As I just mentioned, they've won their last two games here at MSG. Minnesota, even w/ Butler in the lineup, is a shaky road team at 14-22 SU overall and rarely are they favored by this many. The last time they were asked to lay a similar number away from home was Feb 9 at Chicago and they lost the game outright. This is only the third time they've been favored, period, since Butler went down. Once was against Sacramento and the other was Tuesday vs. the Clippers. They did win both, but Tuesday's game was at home and a lot closer than the final score indicated. A big reason I don't trust this T'wolves team to win a playoff series is they rank 26th in defensive efficiency. Tuesday was their highest scoring game since January and given the poor defense, I don't see them scoring enough tonight to cover the lofty spread away from home. 10* New York

10* Clemson (7:07 ET): This is our latest example of an underdog having a significantly higher defensive efficiency rating than its favored counterpart. Taking the points in these situations has proven fruitful for me in this Tournament, most notably last Sunday where Texas A&M, Clemson and Florida State all won their games outright. Two #1 seeds didn't even make it to the Sweet 16, including the #1 team overall, Virginia. Of the four 1-seeds, I had Kansas rated third coming in and they are definitely more vulnerable compared to the other still remaining, that being Villanova. Clemson is up to #7 in the country in defensive efficiency (Kansas only #45) after their absolute thrashing (won 84-53!) of Auburn in the Rd of 32. I'll take the points here.

The "no respect" card is nothing new to these Tigers, who came into the Tournament w/o Dante Grantham. Much was made of their pedestrian record since the injury, but as I said in my analysis of the Auburn game, "perhaps that had more to do w/ the rugged ACC and less w/ the Tigers themselves." As expected, they overwhelmed Auburn w/ their defense, holding them to 53 points on a palty 25.8% shooting. It was a 43-19 game at halftime! But the thing w/ Clemson is they're not just defense. They put up 84 pts on Auburn and that was after shooting better than 55% in Rd. 1 against a New Mexico State team that was ranked inside the top 20 in defensive efficiency. Something else I noted in the analysis for the Auburn game is that Clemson has really feasted on non-conference competition this year. They're now 13-1 SU (9-2 ATS) and have shot 55% or better four times. They are 46 for 80 on two-point attempts in this Tournament. 

Kansas suffered a brutal beat in its Rd of 32 game vs. Seton Hall. They gave up a three-pointer w/ no time remaining, which allowed the Pirates to get inside the number. Normally, I might then consider a reprieve the next time out, but I don't like this matchup for the Jayhawks - at all. With a less than 100% Udoka Azubuike, they are quite vulnerable on the inside as we saw when Seton Hall's Angel Delgado turned in a 24-23 (pts-rebounds) performance. HC Bill Self wants to play a four-guard lineup, but I don't think that works here. The Jayhawks are shooting 40% from three-point range this season, but good luck getting to that number here. The likelihood of an upset here is high. 10* Clemson

10* Under Devils/Penguins (7:05 ET): So, it appears as if the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference is beginning to take shape. We know Tampa Bay and Boston are in (both clinched) and Toronto, Washington, Pittsburgh, Philly have all been in position most of the year. Columbus is the hottest team in the league right now (won 10 straight!), so it looks like they'll do no worse than a Wild Card. The leaves one more spot and it will go to either New Jersey or Florida. The Devils come into Friday w/ a one-point advantage, something that was maintained w/ the Panthers losing yday (shutout 4-0 by C-bus). Needless to say, tonight's game is huge for New Jersey. But I like the total more than either side in this one. 

I'm still not used to seeing a "6" attached to a Devils' game for a total. For years, this was among the lowest-scoring teams in the league. But a plodding style of play has given way to a more wide-open approach this season and the results speak for themselves. Like Colorado in the Western Conference, the Devils are hoping to make the playoffs just one season removed from a last place finish. Really, both teams' renaissance has been overshadowed due to the unprecedented success of the expansion team in Vegas. For the record, New Jersey is 15th in goals per game. That may not sound great, but they were 28th a season ago. They also gave up six goals in their last game (loss to San Jose). However, I'm expecting a much different style of game in what is the finale of a brutal six-game road trip for the Devils, a score akin to teams of years' past.

We know Pittsburgh can score too; they are 6th in the league in goals per game and have the top power play (26.2%). But sometimes that offense is too dependent on them having the man advantage. New Jersey has a good enough penalty killing unit (10th) to stymie the Pens on the PP. Note the Devils are 2-0 vs. the Pens this season, both wins coming in February. They've held them to just three goals total, none coming from the power play (0 for 3). In one of the games, Pittsburgh managed only 16 shots on goal. But it has been the Penguins that have done a good job at limiting the # of opponents' shot attempts lately and the Devils come in averaging just 25.6 per over the L5 games. 10* Under Devils/Penguins 

8* Kansas State (9:37 ET): Well, the deck certainly appears cleared for Kentucky to make another Final Four run, doesn't it? If the Wildcats were to make it to San Antonio, the highest seeded opponent they will have beaten is a 7, and that's only if Nevada wins its Sweet 16 game vs. #11 Loyola Chicago. Already it's been a fairly "easy" ride to the Sweet 16. After getting by pesky 12-seed Davidson in the Rd of 64, UK got to face 13-seed Buffalo (who had upset #4 seed Arizona) in the Rd of 32. The Wildcats were my 10* Game of the Week selection in that one and they rolled the underdog Bulls, 95-75, as an almost outrageously priced 5.5-pt favorite. Here's where I take advantage of public perception though and grab some value. This battle w/ Kansas State is a lot more even than people think. Not saying the Wildcats win this one outright, but I will take the points. 

Now Kansas State was another beneficiary of a big upset to get here. In their case, they were the 1st team to take on a 16-seed in the Rd of 32. That was thanks to UMBC's historical upset of overall top seed Virginia. It was a very ugly affair w/ UMBC, who the players couldn't possibly have been ready to play. KSU won 50-43 by holding UMBC to 29.8% shooting for the game. They led at halftime despite going 0 for 8 on three-point attempts and being w/o leading scorer Dean Wade (who could come off the bench in this game). The Wildcats were also w/o Wade when they beat Creighton in Round 1, 69-59. Incredibly, Creighton and UMBC were held to a combined 32.1%. Tough to lose when you're playing defense like that. 

Statistically, these teams are a lot more even than you might think. Kansas State is slightly ahead in defensive efficiency and we've seen that be huge for underdogs thus far in this tournament (see A&M over UNC). Plus, the line here is basically the same as it was for Kentucky-Buffalo. Now obviously, there's some influence based on what the Wildcats did in that last game, to a team that had just beaten Arizona by 21 pts. But let's not be too quick to forget that Kentucky finished 6th in the SEC in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They have shot 50% or better in four consecutive games, but I do not see that happening here as this game will be a struggle. At 9-1 ATS L10 and heavily favored to get to the Final Four (wasn't the case last week), UK is overvalued. 8* Kansas State

10* Under Kings/Avalanche (9:05 ET): Stop me when you've heard me say this before - "this is a big game in the Western Conference playoff race." I think it's fair to say that it's now down to 10 teams competing for the eight spots (Calgary is waning and I no longer consider them as having any realistic shot). We know Nashville is in and while neither have officially "clinched," I consider Winnipeg and Vegas as locks too. That leaves seven teams and five spots. As things stand right now, both the Kings and Avalanche would be Wild Cards in the playoffs (both in fourth place in their respective divisions). But with those seven teams only separated by seven points, a lot can change between now and the end of the regular season. 

I expect the proverbial "playoff-like mentality" for this one. The Kings are second in the league in fewest goals allowed, but Denver is a hard place to win. Thus, I'm calling for an Under tonight. Similar deal to last night's 10* on the Under in Anaheim-Calgary. With so much on the line, I do not expect any kind of wide open game. Note that we have two of the top three penalty killing units in the league here (Kings #1), so the power play should be a non-factor tonight. Neither team is by any means dominant w/ the man advantage anyways. The Avs do have three PP goals in their last two games, but I would expect nothing of the sort here. 

The Avs are coming off B2B wins where they scored five goals in each game. Keeping that scoring streak going against a team like the Kings isn't easy to do. Also, I like how the Avs have allowed just one goal in each of their last three victories. The Kings got off only 17 shots on goal in an OVERTIME loss to Winnipeg on Tuesday, so we shouldn't expect much out of their offense here either. We should also have two strong netminders between the pipes tonight. For the Kings, Jonathan Quick needs no introduction and has a .937 save percentage his L4 starts. For the Avs, Semyon Varlamov has been a revelation, playing in 18 straight games (16 starts). He has a ridiculous .961 save percentage his L4 starts and a .935 save percentage for the year at home. 10* Under Kings/Avalanche

10* Dallas (8:35 ET): Utah suffered a shocking home defeat Tuesday, losing outright (as 13-pt favorites!) to lowly Atlanta, 99-94. It was only the fourth loss for the Jazz in the last 25 games, but perhaps a costly one as it dropped them to a precarious eighth place in the Western Conference standings. Incredibly, two of those four losses have come against the Hawks! Tonight, Utah finds itself heavily favored again, but this time on the road. And same as the Atlanta game, they'll be facing a team on a losing streak. Dallas has dropped three in a row, continuing what has been arguably the worst season since the beginning of the Mark Cuban era. But I've also been rather adamant that this team is NOT the bottom-feeder it might appear to be on paper. I'm taking the points in this matchup. 

Dallas enters this game at 22-49 SU overall and right in the middle of the bottom four in the Western Conference. However, and this might be a case of "damning w/ faint praise," I consider the Mavs to - easily - be the best among the four teams in that quartet. They have a vastly superior point differential compared to Memphis, Sacramento and Phoenix. In fact, the Mavs are only being outscored by 2.5 points per game this year, making them really "appetizing" in this price range. They are a solid 28-22 ATS this season as an underdog, even after suffering a brutal beat Tuesday night in New Orleans. Taking nine points, the Mavs never trailed by more than eight until the final two minutes of the game. They lost by 10. That's really tough, especially when you consider they led the Pelicans by as many as 13 at one point in the game.

Utah has been a losing proposition on the road this year w/ a 16-19 SU record. The fact they were able to go on such a run and still are only 8th in the West is really tough. Now I still expect them to make the playoffs, but upward mobility is going to be tough as you have to think they'll start plateauing. When these teams met last month in Salt Lake City, the Jazz won by only seven and that was as a 10-pt favorite. Clearly, there's been a big shift from the oddsmakers for this rematch and it's something we can take advantage of. This is too many points to lay for a Jazz team that hasn't had to play many road games over the last month. 10* Dallas