10* Tampa Bay (8:20 ET): Both teams are coming off Week 1 losses here. The Buccaneers could have beaten San Francisco, but instead lost 31-17 in a game where two Jameis Winston interceptions were returned for touchdowns. It was a very sloppy game that saw three total touchdowns scored by the defense (one by TB) and FIVE nullified due to penalties. Meanwhile, don't be fooled by the closeness of Carolina's 30-27 loss to the Rams at home. They never led and were down double digits most of the way. Both teams desperately want to avoid an 0-2 hole and I think this is far too many points to lay on a short week for Carolina. Go w/ the dog. 

I had BOTH of these teams improving this year. One week in, they each have some work to do. I outlined the Panthers' path for improvement in my analysis last week. It had a lot to do w/ their record in close games over the L2 seasons. Two years ago, they were quite good in them. Last year, not so much. Well, last week's result definitely mirrored the second half of last season as they dropped to 0-6 their L6 games decided by seven points or less. But the reality is they were lucky to even finish that close as they punched in a garbage time TD in the final two minutes to make it 30-27. Going back to last season, a big issue w/ the offense has been Cam Newton's failure to "go deep." His longest completion in Wk 1 went for only 17 yds and he only attempted one pass of 20+ yds.

Ultimately, I think Bruce Arians will have the Bucs improved. Whether or not he has the right pieces right now is up for debate. But the Bucs offense, which did gain a ton of yds last year, should have been better in Week 1. A lot of that falls on Winston and the interceptions. Look for him to clean up those mistakes here. The Bucs' defense did its job week, holding the 49ers to just 256 total yards. In the end, I view the market as being too one-sided on this matchup as the underdog is going to be every bit as desperate as the favorite. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Tampa Bay (8:05 ET): It was a costly loss for the Rays last night in more ways than one. First off, losing is never good, but especially when you're in a playoff race. Both the A's and Indians won Wednesday, which means the three Wild Card contenders in the American League are now separated by just a single game in the standings. Tampa Bay remains on top, but obviously a lot can change in a day now. The team the Rays are facing here, Texas, is a not contender and thus there's really no excuse to lose B2B games. Look for the better team to assert itself tonight.

Texas has played better of late, winning five of six. But four of those wins were against the sorry Orioles. Last night's game was certainly a wild one, basically decided in two crucial innings. The Rangers scored seven runs in the bottom of the first for their highest scoring inning of the year. It took 41 pitches before the Rays finally got an out. But, incredibly, they battled back to take the lead by the 4th. That lead easily could have been extended in the 7th, which is when they had TWO runners picked off. That proved costly as Rougned Odor homered for the Rangers in the bottom half of the frame, making it a 10-8 game and giving his team the lead for good. Obviously, I cannot see Tampa Bay's pitching (2nd in AL in runs allowed) being as inept as it was last night. They also are unlikely to make the same kind of mistakes we saw in yday's game. 

The Rays had won 11 of 12 before losing last night. They still are 44-28 on the road, one of the best such records in baseball. Texas has lost 23 of its last 34 games against teams w/ a winning record. For TB, it's Brendan McKay getting the nod tonight. His big league debut came against the Rangers on 6.29 and he was perfect through five innings and ended up allowing just one hit in six. After being "shut down" for 10 days (arm fatigue), McKay returned to the rotation last Friday and threw 3 2/3 shutout innings vs. Toronto, again allowing just one hit. He also had seven strikeouts. Kolby Allard is going here for Texas and while he's been good his last three starts overall, his ERA and WHIP at home are still 6.51 and 1.861 respectively. I don't read much into his 5-1 TSR. 8* Tampa Bay

8* St. Louis (3:10 ET): The Cardinals are lucky that the Cubs are struggling in San Diego, because they've had no better luck in Denver, dropping both previous games in the series to the Rockies. This is quite the reversal of fortune considering the respective runs each team was on coming into the series. Over the previous month, they had gone 23-7 to take over the NL Central and really solidify themselves as a probable playoff participant. Meanwhile, Colorado had lost 11 of 12 coming into this series. I can't see a last place team sweeping a first place one, even if it is at home. 

Usually, the problem visiting teams encounter here at Coors Field is giving up too many runs. But the St. Louis pitching staff is one of the "best in the business," having allowed the third fewest runs in MLB. And they've definitely done their job in this series, giving up only two runs in each game. The problem has been the offense failing to take advantage of the hitter friendly climate Coors provides. Both games have been 2-1 losses. For the year, the Rockies allow 6.8 rpg at home, easily the most in all of baseball. It's the bats that the Redbirds desperately need to show up today. I believe they will. 

Miles Mikolas has made only one career start here in Coors and it was a disaster (gave up 12 runs), the worst of his career. But that was a different season. This version of Mikolas has pitched very well of late w/ a 2.65 ERA and 0.882 WHIP his L3 starts. He'll be facing a Colorado lineup that has scored three runs or fewer in seven straight games. Granted, five of those were on the road, but the last two weren't. Tim Melville goes for the Rockies and this will be just his fifth start of 2019. He's pitched OK in three of the previous four, but the last one at home was a struggle as he lasted only two innings and gave up five runs. The Cardinals are 30-19 in day games this season and too good to be swept by the lowly Rockies. 8* St. Louis

8* NY Mets (1:10 ET): So, the Wild Card race in the National League has taken yet another dramatic turn here in Citi Field with the Mets taking three straight from the D'backs. Arizona came into this series having won 11 of 13 games after largely underachieving much of the year. But they've had no luck here in Queens, especially last night when they went down 9-0. If this pattern seems all too familiar, well, remember the Mets started the second half by winning 20 of 26 games before hitting their own wall. But now they're back ahead of Arizona in the WC hunt and only two games back of the Cubs/Brewers. All signs point to the Mets finishing off the sweep here.

The D'backs have managed only three runs in this series and just eight in the last five games. That's exactly what Mets' starter Marcus Stroman wants to hear as he's struggled a bit of late. Stroman was obviously supposed to solidify this Mets' starting rotation for the stretch run, but the team has lost his last three times out. Then again, that has a lot to do w/ lack of run support as the Mets have scored only four total runs in the three games. Stroman has a 19-4 KW ratio in the three starts, so it hasn't been all bad even though just one of his seven starts in a Mets uniform has been a quality one. Still, given the D'backs lack of offense in this series, we see him getting back on track tonight. The Mets are 21-7 off their previous 28 wins. 

Arizona will counter with rookie Alex Young, who turned in a sensational effort last week in Cincinnati where he went eight innings w/o giving up a run. It was arguably the best start of his career so far, even better than the one where he threw six no-hit innings vs. Colorado. He had 12 strikeouts in the last one. But how does Young follow that up? Only one time all year has Young been able to turn in B2B quality outings. The Mets are 7-1 their last eight games vs. a starter that has a 1.15 WHIP or better. Arizona has lost seven of the last eight times it has had to play a 4th game in a series. At home, the Mets are 41-29 this season and they finish off the sweep here. 8* NY Mets

8* Under Royals/White Sox (8:10 ET): These are two of the lowest scoring teams in baseball w/ the Royals ranking 28th in runs scored and the White Sox 27th. Last night's game was a 7-3 win for Chicago as they gained a measure of revenge for what happened the last time these AL Central rivals met, that being a Royals sweep at Kauffman Stadium in July. We don't see the White Sox scoring as many runs tonight as they're actually one of MLB's most overrated teams going by run differential. Having been outscored by 135 runs, you'd expect just 58 wins, not the 64 they actually have. This should be a low-scoring game. Take the Under. 

Even though they have more wins than they should, it's not been a good season for the White Sox collectively or for tonight's starter Reynaldo Lopez individually. That said, Lopez is off his best start of the year. He went the distance vs. Cleveland, allowing just one run on one hit and had 11 strikeouts. That was in stark contrast to the disastrous outing he had in Atlanta on August 31st. The last time Lopez pitched here at Guaranteed Rate Field, he got the job done w/ five shutout innings. He's been wildly inconsistent overall, but is actually working on an 11+ inning scoreless streak at home entering tonight. His last four home starts have all seen him allow 2 ER or fewer. It's a weak lineup he'll be facing here tonight and the last two times Lopez has faced the Royals, he's allowed only two runs in 12 IP. 

I should point out that the difference in last night's game was a grand slam from the White Sox Eloy Jiminez. Take that away and you have a 3-3 game. Like his counterpart Lopez, Glenn Sparkman (tonight's starter for KC) has been inconsistent. But he did throw his own CG at their expense back on July 16th. It was a five-hit shutout. Sparkman also held the White Sox to just three runs (one unearned) in 6 2/3 IP back in June. Chicago only averages 3.9 rpg vs. right-handed starters, so this is tailor-made for a low-scoring situation. 8* Under Royals/White Sox 

10* Under Dodgers/Orioles (7:05 ET): Granted, "Under" may not be your first response when seeing the Dodgers getting an additional bat (DH) for a matchup against an Orioles pitching staff that has surrendered a MLB-high 891 runs this season. However, Baltimore will have its most effective starter on the mound tonight (John Means) and we believe he can keep the home team in this one. The Dodgers clinched their 7th straight NL West pennant last night and may not be as prolific at the plate tonight after celebrating that particular achievement. Take the Under. 

Both of tonight's starters come in with strong looking resumes. It might just be a spot start for Ross Stripling of the Dodgers tonight, but he excelled in that situation on Sept 1, tossing three shutout innings. The last four times Stripling has started a game for Dodger Blue, he's allowed a combined six runs. The primary reason he's not in the rotation is the embarrassment of riches the Dodgers possess in the pitching department. Stripling's last work saw him deliver two shutout innings vs. Colorado last Wednesday. He should do just fine against a Baltimore lineup that has scored 4 runs or less in 8 of its last 10 ballgames. 

Last night saw the Dodgers jump all over O's starter Ty Blach for six runs by the top of the third. Baltimore having Means on the mound tonight should prevent a similar situation from unfolding. Means is coming off three consecutive quality outings (two of them wins!) where he allowed a total of just five runs in 20 2/3 IP. His ERA and WHIP during that time are 2.18 and 0.677 respectively. Means has pitched quite well at Camden Yards this season, posting a 2.95 ERA and 0.996 WHIP here in 14 starts. Of course, there is the issue of run support, but that's why we are on the Under. 10* Under Dodgers/Orioles 

8* Houston (8:10 ET): The Astros hammered the A's last night, 15-0, as they became the first team in MLB history to homer six times in the first two innings of a game. By that point, it was 11-0, which was more than enough for Zack Greinke, who gave up just three hits. Houston has now won five in a row and outscored their opponents 36-1 the last two games while the pitching staff has allowed only four hits! It was one thing to beat up on the sorry Mariners, but crushing a potential playoff team like Oakland is really impressive. Speaking of impressive, Houston is now 56-17 at home this season, including a ridiculous 28-2 vs. division foes. They are 17-4 in the L21 games overall. In other words, this is a team not to be faded. While this play qualifies as a late update, really I should have jumped on the 'Stros even earlier. 

Following sensational efforts from both Gerrit Cole and Greinke, Wade Miley is next up in the Astros' rotation. He's gone 7-0 over his last 14 starts w/ a 3.41 ERA. Remember that Justin Verlander is also in this rotation! Miley's last start happened to be his worst of the year, though he did not lose as the offense bailed him out in a wild 11-9 come from behind win. Look for Miley to bounce back here as he's posted a 1.83 ERA in three starts vs. Oakland this year, allowing just 4 runs on 12 hits in 19 2/3 IP. The Astros are 21-8 in all Miley starts this year, including 11-2 at home. By the way, the Astros are outscoring teams by 2.4 rpg at home this year, which is a huge margin. 

Oakland is going with Tanner Roark in this spot and he's clearly up against it based on what the Astros have done at the plate these last two games. For the year, Houston is averaging 6.1 runs per game at home! After the second inning was over ydat, they's scored a total of 32 runs the last nine times through the order, which is second most in MLB history. Roark has pitched well for the A's, including a win over the Astros on 8.16 (as a +170 ML dog), but that came in Oakland. Given how good they have looked over the last week, the Astros are an automatic play in this price range. 8* Houston

10* Under Rays/Rangers (8:05 ET): Can't say there's been too many pitchers' duels here in Arlington this season, but that's where the Rays come in. Tampa Bay has given up the third fewest number of runs in all of MLB, which is why they are currently in position to make the playoffs. They'll turn to Ryan Yarbrough here and he's been every bit as hot as the team has been lately. But the Rangers counter w/ Lance Lynn and he's had a good year despite some less than desirable results of late. Texas comes in on a four-game win streak, having swept the Orioles in Baltimore over the weekend. 

Tampa Bay has won 5 straight and 10 out of its last 11, so they've already got to be feeling good before giving the ball to Yarbrough here. Yarbrough is not always used as a traditional starter, but will be here. He's made 10 starts in 2019 and has a 3.17 ERA and 0.796 WHIP. He has a 1.85 ERA and 0.588 WHIP in the five on the road. Overall, he's 11-3 with the team winning five of the last six games he's pitched. In that six-start stretch, Yarbrough has held opposing hitters to a .195 average and has a 2.25 ERA. Count on him to do his part tonight. 

As for Lynn, recent numbers are skewed by one bad starts, which came on the road and against the White Sox of all opponents. But he's allowed exactly 1 ER in four of his last seven starts. Eight of his last nine have gone Under. Back on 6.28, he faced this Tampa Bay team and turned in arguably his best start of the year as he delivered eight scoreless innings w/ 10 K's and allowing only three hits. Though it doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things, Lynn and the Rangers probably want to finish .500 for the year, so don't expect them to roll over here. 10* Under Rays/Rangers

10* Minnesota (7:40 ET): As pleased as I've been to see Washington rise back to prominance (they were on my most improved list for 2019), this is a bad matchup for them in Minnesota. The Nats didn't have a good weekend, dropping three of four in Atlanta, which effectively ended any chance they had of winning the NL East. We still believe they get into the playoffs as a Wild Card, but a second straight series against a division leader (on the road) is tough. This is an unfamiliar environment as well as it's park the franchise has NEVER played at (last visited Minnesota in 2008). 

It also wasn't a great weekend for the Twins, who similarly were facing their main competition from within the division. They lost two of three to the Indians, here at home, but w/ a 5.5 game lead they'll likely be in the playoffs as well. Interestingly, the Twins are 38-17 off a loss this season. They won the middle game of the Cleveland series, so that trend held. Over the last month, the AL Central leaders have dropped B2B games only one time. We all know what this team is capable of offensively as they entered the week tied w/ the Yankees for the highest runs per game average (5.8) in all of MLB. 

Looking at the pitching matchup, both starters are coming off rough outings. Washington's Anibal Sanchez gave up seven runs in five innings his last time out while Minnesota's Jose Berrios allowed six in five. Our view is that Berrios is the one more likely to bounce back. Yes, Sanchez had won his eight prior decisions before losing his last start, but this is the same pitcher who opened 2019 by going 0-6 his first eight starts. He gave up three home runs in that last start. Berrios, a two-time All Star, has allowed more than 3 ER in a start only three times since Memorial Day. Look for the Twins to beat the Nationals for the 1st time since 2013. 10* Minnesota

8* Atlanta (7:05 ET): What was a "meaningless" run to many proved costly to us last night here in Philly. Down 7-1 in the bottom of the ninth, the home team scored and that sent the game Over. We had the Under. Nevertheless, we don't get mad, we get even and that's what will do here w/ the Phillies. Atlanta has been red hot of late, winning 10 of their last 11 (only loss was Sunday). Meanwhile, Philadelphia is ready to fade. They've remained in the playoff hunt despite a negative YTD run differential. Last night showed that there's a big game between them and the Braves right now. It also helps Atlanta is 14-2 this season as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 price range. 

There's a lot of hot starters in the Braves' rotation right now. Last night's starter Mike Foltynewicz now has a 10-0 TSR his L10 outings after last night's win. Tonight's starter Max Fried enters tonight w/ a 9-0 TSR his L9. He's 16-4 on the year and has a 0.722 WHIP his L3 times out. Overall, the team is 21-6 when he pitches, including 11-2 at home. Fried tossed seven shutout innings his last time out and allowed only one hit vs. Washington. He has 20 strikeouts and just one walk his L2 starts. Fried has made two starts against the Phillies in 2019 and the Braves have won both. 

Jason Vargas, who moved from one NL East team (Mets) to another has seen Atlanta plenty of times his career. But just once this year and it was all the way back in April. While that was a long time ago, it was also the shortest stint of the year. He got just one out and exited after allowing four runs. His work for the Phillies hasn't been all that impressive so far. He has a 6.46 ERA and 1.566 WHIP his L3 starts. These are two teams trending in very different directions. 8* Atlanta

10* Over Broncos/Raiders (10:20 ET): Well, we know what the story going into this game will be. One of the oddest sagas in recent NFL history ended Saturday w/ the Raiders releasing WR Antonio Brown before he even got to play a regular season game for them. Truth be told, Jon Gruden's return here to Oakland has been rocky at best. With Brown, the Raiders are a team we expected to improve (some) in 2019 and the same holds true for their Week 1 opponent, Denver. The Broncos have a new QB, or rather an old one in Joe Flacco, who comes over after leaving Baltimore. It's a really low total Monday night and you should look for the game to go Over the total. 

Looking at team-by-team OU records from LY, none really stand out except one. Denver stayed Under in 13 of 16 games. They only averaged 20.6 points per game, but only gave up 21.8. They actually played better than you realize in the sense that they were only outscored by 20 pts over the course of the season and were 6-6 through 12 games. Flacco is clearly not a long-term solution at QB, nor are we even sure he's a good option in the present, but the Broncos should easily score in this game against an Oakland defense that gave up the most points in the league last year. Denver has gone Over in eight of its last nine season openers. 

With Brown gone, how will the Raiders score points? Well, it starts w/ Derek Carr, who three years ago guided this offense to a respectable 25.3 PPG. The Silver and Black have been down to 18.8 and 18.1 PPG the last two seasons and those are simply unacceptable numbers. The Raiders do have a lot of new starters on offense even w/ Brown gone and a suspect line is going to have to do a better job at protecting Carr. But look for the Raiders to score more than you think Monday night. The same holds true for Denver. Again, this is a low number. Take the Over. 10* Over Broncos/Raiders

6* Milwaukee (7:10 ET): Despite a negative YTD run differential, the Brewers have managed to stay in contention for the postseason. They just took three of four from the Cubs in a key series over the weekend. This next series, though on the road, shapes up to be much easier as it's against Miami. The Marlins have easily been the NL's worst team in 2019 as they have just 51 wins while being outscored by 173 runs. But don't look for the Brew Crew to take them lightly. In the only prior series between the teams this year, Miami took two of three including a 16-0 win. There's too much on the line here for Milwaukee to let that happen again. 

Ironically, Miami is off another big shutout victory Sunday as they beat the Royals 9-0. But all that did was allow them to avoid getting swept at home by a weak Interleague opponent. It was just the third win in the last nine games for the Fish, who have not posted B2B victories since late July! They are just 19-31 off a win for the entire season. Robert Duggar gets the start Monday, making just his fourth of his big league career. The 1st, which saw him give up six runs, did not go so well. But the last two has seen him allow just five total (three unearned) in 13 IP. But he's facing a stronger lineup tonight, which likely means trouble. 

We thought Jordan Lyles might be a questionable pickup at the trade deadline for Milwaukee, but he's turned into a bit of a revelation. The team has won each of the last four times he's started and Lyles is off a three-start stretch where his ERA and WHIP are 1.53 and 0.849 respectively! He's allowed just two runs in 17 2/3 IP (all at home) and that includes wins over division leaders Houston and St. Louis his last two times out! By comparison, Miami is a much weaker opponent and we don't see the Brew Crew having any difficulty taking this series opener. Milwaukee is 21-9 its L30 games vs. teams w/ a win percentage of .400 or below. 6* Milwaukee

10* Under Braves/Phillies (7:05 ET): Atlanta had been red hot (won 9 straight) before losing yday to Nationals 9-4. They're still very much in good shape for the postseason as they lengthened their lead in the NL East to nine games over the weekend. Speaking of the number nine, that's how many Mike Foltynewicz starts the Braves have won in a row. Foltynewicz has received ample run support during this time, but his team had gone Under in six straight before yday's loss. We look for this to be another low-scoring, division battle. Take the Under. 

Philadelphia is very much alive for the postseason, but we don't see them making it. They're a pretty mediocre ballclub. They did take two of three from the Mets over the weekend, winning in a 5-0 shutout Saturday and 10-7 on Sunday. We had the Under in Saturday's game, our top NL East total for September and that obviously came through. The offense really came alive yday, homering three times in what was a very long game. The Phillies relied heavily on their bullpen Sunday, using eight pitchers total, so it'll be important that they get a lot from tonight's starter. 

Fortunately, the starter for Monday will be Aaron Nola, who is already 3-0 this season vs. Atlanta. Nola is 12-4 overall in his L30 starts, but the team is 0-3 his L3. Yet two of those were still quality outings, including the only one here at Citizens Bank Park. Nola has allowed just 1 ER in each of his last three home starts. Foltynewicz threw five shutout innings his last start. Should be a "good ol' fashioned pitchers duel" tonight as the Braves are 17-5-1 their L23 series openers. 10* Under Braves/Phillies 

10* NY Giants (4:25 ET): This is a matchup where we are markedly higher on one team and markedly lower on the other. On paper, it's easy to understand why so many are writing off the Giants in 2019. They went 5-11 last season, lost WR Odell Beckham Jr in the offseason and made a questionable 1st round draft pick (QB Daniel Jones out of Duke). But this team wasn't as bad as you might think last season as they finished middle of the pack in DVOA and were only outscored by 43 points. The fact they lost eight games by 7 pts or less (most in the league) signals they may have actually been more unlucky than bad.

Dallas was certainly more lucky than good last year. They went 10-6 SU and won the division despite only outscoring opponents by 15 pts over the course of the season. To put that point differential in its proper perspective, note that the other three division winners in the NFC were all +138 or better! Things really changed for the better after a mid-season trade for WR Amari Cooper. But it was not Cooper, nor the exploits of any one individual player that drove the Cowboys' success. Rather, it was a 9-2 record in games decided by 7 pts or less. That includes a perfect 7-0 after the Cooper trade, all those wins coming in the final nine weeks. Just once did the Cowboys win a game by more than eight points all year! 

The running back position is likely to be spotlighted in this matchup. With Beckham gone, the Giants are likely to lean heavily on second year RB Saquon Barkley, who had an outstanding rookie year. Dallas' bellcow Ezekiel Elliott just signed this week and there's no way he'll be in "game shape." Throw in the likely change these teams are going to experience this year in close games and you can smell an upset here. The G-Men also will be motivated by revenge as they've been swept the last two years by the Cowboys. The Giants have covered 11 of their last 16 road games. 10* NY Giants

10* NY Jets (1:00 ET): So, we're higher on the Jets than most are for this season. We see a team that has plenty of room to improve, and should given that they finished LY 1-5 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less and w/ a -10 turnover differential. They have one of the worst Pythagorean win differentials (-1.3) as well, signaling that they were a lot better team than what you'd think w/ a 4-12 SU finish. QB Sam Darnold actually played a lot better in the 2nd half of his rookie season as his TD-INT ratio in the L4 games was 6-1. The offense adds RB Le'Veon Bell, who is fresh after sitting out all of last season and there's a new HC (Adam Gase) to preside over it all. 

Most are going to view these two AFC East rivals as being pretty even coming into 2019. But while we're high on the Jets, the same cannot be said for Buffalo. They did have two more wins than the Jets LY, but the two teams finished w/ nearly identical point differentials. We remain unsold on 2nd year QB Josh Allen as well. His 53% completion rate was worst in the league last year. Remember that it was at this time last year, many (us included) were projecting the Bills to be the worst team in football. They surprised in going 6-10 SU, but don't let that fool you into thinking they'll be improved for this year. 

Unlike the Jets, there were no substantive additions made on either side of the ball for the Bills, or on the coaching staff for that matter. The offense was actually quite bad last year and we don't think the defense is going to be as good this year.  If we're right about the Jets, then it means beating the Bills at home. These teams split last year, but each time the road team won. The Bills' defense gave up 200+ rush yards in three games last season. So Bell could have a big debut here for the Jets. Buffalo has won just 5 of its last 17 road games and is 7-16 SU as an underdog. Lay the short number. 10* NY Jets

8* Carolina (1:00 ET): All the key metrics indicate that the Panthers will be an improved team in 2019. Ironically, it was at this time last year, we were proclaiming they were set to regress. The 2017 team that made the playoffs (went 11-5 SU overall) did so on the strength of a 7-2 record in one-score games and that was unsustainable. Now, for awhile there, our calls for regression looked foolish as the Panthers started last year 6-2. But, it turned out we were right as they lost their next seven games (five of them by 7 pts or less) and missed the playoffs altogether. Now, for many of the same reasons we said they'd regress last year, we believe they'll improve this year. Under HC Ron Rivera, the Panthers have a habit of having bounce back years w/ their record in "close games" almost being like a yo-yo year to year. 

Sean McVay has transformed the Rams into one of the league's real powerhouses the last two seasons. They made it all the way to the Super Bowl last year, but chose a most inopportune time to have their worst offensive game under McVay. The Patriots held them to 260 total yards and three points in an ugly game. What New England did that day will be studied and borrowed by all future Rams' opponents. One thing we know is certain and that's LA won't be repeating LY's 7-1 record in close games (sound familiar?), which happened to be a league best. It will also be challenging to match LY's +11 turnover differential as well. 

So, with one team set to improve and the other set to regress, our call on this one is pretty easy. Cam Newton wasn't healthy down the stretch for the Panthers last season and while he sustained a minor injury in the preseason, all indications are that he's ready to roll here in Week 1. Todd Gurley was basically M.I.A. in the Super Bowl for the Rams and we think he's a big question mark heading into this season. The loser of the previous year's Super Bowl has gone 3-16 ATS in Week 1 the L19 seasons as there's often a "hangover effect" from losing that big game.  Newton is 14-5 ATS as an underdog since 2015, including a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times he's gotten points at home. Teams that missed the playoffs and had a losing ATS record the previous year (Carolina was 7-9 ATS) are 30-15-1 ATS the L10 years in Week 1 if matched up w/ a playoff team. 8* Carolina

10* Washington (10:30 ET): You wanna talk some line value. Last year when these teams met, Washington was an 11-point favorite in Berkeley. They obviously lost outright (12-10), setting up the big revenge play here. But only having to lay a similar number here in Seattle seems like a real bargain. The Huskies were ranked #15 in the country at the time of LY's loss and while Chris Petersen's team isn't being considered nearly as dangerous for 2019, that seems a bit foolish on the surface as they're actually ranked slightly higher currently and we agree w/ the pollsters' assessment. Lay the number here in this Pac 12 opener! 

It's not just the revenge angle that has us on UW here. We're simply not fans of this Cal team either as they figure to really struggle to put points on the board. They got away w/ not scoring a single offensive TD in last year's upset, but don't figure to be that fortunate again as the Huskies are certainly reminding themselves of what happened that day. While it's a new year, Cal has only four starters back on offense. They turned the ball over quite a bit in 2018 and that looks like it's still going to be a problem as they coughed it up four times in last week's 27-13 win over Cal Davis. The Bears' defense is very good, one of the nation's best on the backend in fact, but they are going to be tested a lot more here.

One of the reasons you should not expect much of a slip w/ Washington this season is they brought in a transfer at QB in Jacob Eason, who comes over from Georgia. Eason's first start saw him throw for four touchdowns and 349 yards in a 47-14 rout of Eastern Washington. The Huskies also ran for 200 yards on offense as it really was a complete performance. This is a team that has won the Pac 12 two of the last three seasons and can absolutely get back to the Championship Game again this year. They are a perfect 14-0 SU at home the last three years, so not only will there be no upset this time around, look for the Huskies to win big Saturday night in a revenge spot on National TV. 10* Washington

8* Fresno State (10:30 ET): It can't be understated as to what an amazing turnaround Jeff Tedford has engineered here at Fresno State. Two years ago, he inherited a team that had just gone 1-11 SU and finished dead last in the Mountain West Conference. Under his direction, the Bulldogs have gone a stunning 22-6 SU and 20-6-2 at the betting window. They were 12-2 SU last year and won the Conference Title, winning at Boise State. That was a revenge spot for a regular season loss on the blue turf. Late Saturday, FSU gets a shot at revenge for the other of LY's two losses, that being Minnesota, who now must come out to the West Coast (LY's game in Minneapolis). Take the points. 

Last year was a very even game that saw Fresno State give up the go-ahead score (was tied 14-14) w/ just over three minutes remaining. The game ended w/ FSU throwing an INT in the end zone on the potential game-tying score. I love the fact that the Bulldogs are getting points at home for this rematch as they're a perfect 7-0 ATS as underdogs under Tedford following LW's cover at USC. While they lost the game 31-23, note FSU actually outgained the Trojans 462-447. Yes, Southern Cal lost its starting QB to a season ending injury, but the real key was a 100-yard kickoff return for a TD in the third quarter. Take that away and it was basically an even game at the Coliseum. 

Minnesota is not as good as USC, but you already knew that. PJ Fleck's team had trouble beating South Dakota State last week, winning by only seven (28-21) as 14-pt favorites. Yes, South Dakota State is one of the better FCS programs. But Minnesota needed a late score just to win the game on the field. The problem for the Gophers appears to be along the line - on both sides of the ball. They gave up a ton of rushing yards last week (174) and considering Fresno just ran for 200+ against USC, expect them to rack up plenty of yards over land in this one as well. 8* Fresno State

10* Under Phillies/Mets (7:15 ET): These NL East rivals are now tied at 72-68 following the Mets' 5-4 victory last night. We've been waiting for the Mets to pass the Phillies for some time now as they've got the better YTD run differential and pretty clearly have had the better second half of the season. Were it not for a six-game losing streak last month, the Mets' playoff odds would be in a lot better shape than they are now. Still, both of these clubs are just four games back of the Wild Card. Expect a "playoff-like" atmosphere tonight at Citi Field and for it to be a low-scoring game. Take the Under. 

It ended up being a wild finish last night as the Mets won the game on a basess loaded walk. This came after closer Edwin Diaz suffered a seventh blown save opportunity by giving up a pair of runs in the top half of the frame. The Mets had taken a 4-2 lead w/ a two-run eighth, so the starters definitely did their jobs yday (was a 2-2 game entering the bottom of the 8th). The same should hold true here as Marcus Stroman goes for the Mets and Drew Smyly for the Phillies. Stroman now has a 4-2 TSR since coming over from Toronto, though both losses came in the previous two starts. Smyly has a 4-1 TSR his L5 starts and did not face the Mets last weekend. 

Stroman did pitch in last weekend's series and while the Mets lost the game (5-2), it was actually his best effort since coming over. He went six innings and allowed just two runs. Stroman's last three starts have all stayed Under the total. The same holds true for Smyly, who just held Cincinnati to one run across 5 1/3 innings his last time out. The Mets have never faced him before and the Under is 9-1-1 their last 11 games vs. a southpaw starter. If watching this game on FS-1 tonight, don't expect many runs to be scored by either team. 10* Under Phillies/Mets

10* Edmonton (7:00 ET): For the second week in a row, these Alberta rivals will meet. Calgary is 2-0 in the season series, including a 25-9 win last week. They'd won 24-18 earlier in the year, but the "catch" is that both games took place at McMahon Stadium in Calgary. Edmonton certainly isn't going to take those losses lightly and now w/ the homefield advantage for the first time, we expect them to exact some revenge. We won w/ the Under in each of the first two meetings and expect that Eskimos defense (still #1 in the league) to "show up" here after LW's poor performance. Lay the short number. 

The Eskimos gave up a season-high 462 yards last week as QB Bo Levi Mitchell made his return for the Stampeders. That was the big storyline heading into the game and we'd thought there was a good chance Mitchell might struggle in his first start in nearly two months. Turns out that wasn't the case. Although, it was really the Stamps' ground game that got things going as they went for over 200 yards rushing. Now let's see how Mitchell performs on the road. Calgary isn't going to run the ball that effectively again, that's for sure. 

The Eskimos defense still allows just 278.9 yards and 20.3 points per game, which rank 1st and 3rd in the league respectively. Last week saw Calgary have not only the homefield edge, but also the advantage of being off a bye. Neither of those situations are present this week. The Stampeders have lost two of their last three road games with the one win coming by a single point. Edmonton is now off B2B losses, so they're motivated by more than just revenge here. It was the worst offensive game of the season last week for the Eskimos, but they should bounce back at home where they've gone 4-1 SU this season, winning by an average of nearly 10 PPG. 10* Edmonton

analysis soon

8* Wisconsin (3:30 ET): It's important NOT to overreact to just one game. However, if Wisconsin's season-opening win over USF (49-0 shutout!) was any indication, then the Badgers may be more improved that most realize. This was going to be an improved team anyway after shockingly falling to just eight wins LY, the low-water mark in Madison over the past decade. The Badgers are our choice to win the wide-open Big 10 West this year and are a potential Top 10 team down the line. Currently ranked #16 in the polls, they should have zero difficulty in blowing out a Central Michigan team that is probably still the worst the MAC has to offer. The huge number won't scare us off. Lay it!

That 49-0 win over South Florida last week came on the road for Paul Chryst's team as they outgained the Bulls 433-157. If you recall, we railed against USF for much of last season, but at one point they were ranked. So they have every right to be excited in Madison right now. Remember that RB Jonathan Taylor is coming off a season in which he ran for 2194 yards! He ran for four touchdowns last week. The defense wasn't up to par last year, but clearly has improved. In Chryst's first three seasons here, the Badgers never allowed more than 16 PPG. That number spiked to 22.6 PPG last season, but will almost certainly decrease in 2019. 

Central Michigan was horrible last season, winning only 1 game and it was against FCS Maine (by a score of 17-5!). Jim McElwain, who previously failed at Florida, takes over this job and it's a pretty big rebuild up in Mount Pleasant. The Chippewas did open the season w/ a 38-21 win, but it was against FCS Albany and giving up that many points probably isn't a good sign. The defense was considered the stronger side of the ball last year, but still allowed over 200 rush yards per game and has just three starters back. So Taylor should run wild here. CMU did have only three losses by 24+ points LY and just one (51-13 at Toledo in the final game) by more than this spread. But it's been a long time since the Chips faced a team as good as Wisconsin. It promises to be a LONG Saturday for them. 8* Wisconsin

8* Bowling Green (12:00 ET): This is one where we don't see an outright upset, but we're not about to bypass taking this many points against a Kansas State squad still getting its proverbial "feet wet" in the post Bill Snyder era. The Wildcats slipped to 5-7 SU in Snyder's final season, missing a bowl for the 1st time in nine seasons, by blowing a 17-pt lead in the reg season finale at Iowa State (but they still covered for us!). Chris Klieman takes over, coming from North Dakota State where he won four FCS Nat'l Titles in five years. His first game went well w/ the Wildcats running for a school record 361 yards (on 58 carries) against FCS Nicholls State. Though Bowling Green has struggled the last several years, don't expect them to get run over like that. Take the points. 

Bowling Green also has a 1st year HC in Scott Loefer, who spent the better part of the last decade serving as the OC for some high profile programs (Auburn, Va Tech & BC). This is clearly a massive rebuild he's undertaking and it didn't help that QB Jarret Doege decided to transfer late. But the Falcons' first game was a success as they too clubbed a FCS opponent, beating Morgan State 46-3 w/ a 620-70 edge in total yards! Consider that a "confidence-builder" for a rare P5 game against a team from a conference other than the Big 10. 

Kansas State has two big road games on deck, at Mississippi State and Oklahoma State w/ a bye week in between. Don't be surprised if late in the game (assuming this one isn't coming down to the wire), the coaching staff doesn't become more concerned about those games than this one. As for BGSU, who just suffered through three bad seasons under former HC Mike Jinks, expect an all-out effort Saturday afternoon in Manhattan. The early start time may do no favors for the favorite either. Consider that this spread is currently larger than what KSU was asked to lay to an FCS opponent last week. There were only three times in the previous two seasons where the Wildcats were asked to lay between 21 and 31 points. They won all three games, but failed to cover twice. This is too big a number for them to be laying right now. 8* Bowling Green

8* Maryland (12:00 ET): Over the course of the final nine weeks of last year's NCAAF regular season, we nailed an amazing 18 outright upsets. Wasting little time this year, we've already nailed Hawaii (+11.5) on Opening Night as well as Boise State over Florida State last Saturday. We anticipated this to be the latest addition to our "upset brigade," but unfortunately it can no longer qualify as the line has "jumped the fence" here w/ Maryland now favored. Never fear though. The Terps still are a solid play here as Syracuse (#21 AP/#22 Coaches) is a ranked team in name only. 

It's a new era in College Park, MD w/ Mike Locksley taking over. Locksley served as the OC under Nick Saban at Alabama the L2 seasons and was the Broyles Award Winner (top assistant) last year. The Maryland players went through alot LY w/ the death of a teammate and the dismissal of D.J. Durkin. But they still opened w/ an emotional 34-29 upset of Texas. Locksley's 1st game as HC projected to be a whole heck of a lot easier and it was w/ Terps beating Howard 79-0. It was a 56-0 game at halftime, giving the starters some rest coming into this week, which is their 1st real test. The Terps finished w/ a 623-68 edge in total yds last wk despite basically taking the 2nd half off. The defense, which has five seniors, allowed just 1 rushing yard and never allowed Howard to cross midfield. For the record, the line flipping might be a blessing in disguise considering the Terrapins are 6-3 ATS their L9 times favored. 

Dino Babers looks to be building a winner at Syracuse. Last year, his 3rd on the job, saw him guide the Orange to a 10-win season. But don't look for them to be as good as last year. A season-opening win over Liberty (24-0) showed that the offense is going to miss dynamic QB Eric Dungey, who graduated as the school's all-time passing leader. Yes, like Maryland, the 'Cuse pitched a shutout last week as well. But it came against an opponent whose HC was laying in a hospital bed (not making this up!). All three of the Orange's losses LY came outside the Carrier Dome. They are just two years removed from a winless season on the road. Maryland is the better team and look for them to win this battle of former ACC rivals. 8* Maryland

7* Brazil (9:00 ET): This battle of South American powerhouses (pun intended!) takes place in Miami. The key story is the return of Neymar for the Brazilian side as he'll take to the pitch for the first time in three months. He'd sprained his ankle back on June 5th, which was before his country went out and won the Copa America tournament. Then there was the summer-long drama between PSG and Barcelona failing to come to a deal for his rights. With Neymar back in the fold, expect Selecao to emerge victorious. 

"La Cafeteros" are 8th in the World (Brazil is #2), but will be without their best two players: James Rodriguez and Radamel Falcao. With Neymar returning for Brazil, this is quite the turn of events for the Colombians. This is a side that went unbeaten in Group Play in the Copa America. However, two of those wins came against Qatar and Paraguay. Then they were eliminated in the first round of the knockout stage (penalty kicks) by Chile. They've lost only once inside of 90 minutes in their L11 matches. But scoring will be a problem without the two key players. They scored only four goals in four matches in Copa America. 

Brazil has lost just one time in the last 32 matches, a quarterfinal loss to Belgium (#1 ranked side in the world) in LY's World Cup. They enter Friday on a 16-match win streak. They've lost only three times to Colombia in the last 31 head to head matchups. Not only is Neymar back, so is Vinicius Junior, who missed Copa America as well. Again, Brazil still won that Tournament despite missing the two stars. Since current manager Tite took over, Selecao has conceded just 10 times in 42 matches and also kept seven clean sheets in the last eight tries. 7* Brazil

8* Minnesota (8:10 ET): It's all gone wrong for the Indians of late as they could only manage a split of a four-game series (at home!) against the White Sox. That result leaves them currently on the outside looking in when it comes to a very tight AL Wild Card race w/ them, the Rays and A's. Right now, Cleveland is 1.5 games back of Tampa Bay and two back in the loss column of Oakland. Problem is both of those teams are at home this weekend facing weaker opponents. The Tribe has to hit the road to face first place Minnesota, who has won 10 of 12, including a thrilling game last night at Fenway Park. 

For awhile there, it appeared as if Cleveland was going to pass Minnesota in the AL Central. They did briefly grab the division lead, but the Twins have stormed back and now hold a 6.5 game advantage. Say what you will about their chances in the postseason, but Minnesota is legit w/ a +174 run differential (3rd best in MLB) and no team has scored more runs this season. They also have a red hot pitcher on the mound tonight in Michael Pineda, who is unbeaten over his last seven starts (5-0) and has a 0.944 WHIP over his last three. He has a 0.90 WHIP in two career starts vs. Cleveland, the last one coming back on March 31st where he tossed four shutout innings.

Cleveland has been hit by the injury bug at the worst possible time as both Jose Ramirez and Tyler Naquin are out of the lineup. They could manage just a single run in yday's loss to the White Sox and have scored just 14 runs in the past five road games. That's not going to be enough against a team averaging almost 6.0 rpg for the season. Adam Plutko starts here for the Indians and he's off a rough showing LW in Tampa where he gave up four runs in just 4 1/3 IP. It was his worst showing since facing this Twins team on August 10th where he also allowed four runs. Target Field doesn't seem like the place where Cleveland will turn things around. 8* Minnesota

10* Under Nationals/Braves (7:20 ET): Both of these NL East teams are likely to make the playoffs, it's just a question of who wins the division at this point. Washington came into this series knowing it may need a sweep to have any realistic chance of catching the Braves, but now that's out the window after a 4-2 loss last night. That leaves them eight back of the Braves, who have now won seven in a row. Still, expect a "playoff-like" atmosphere at SunTrust Park Friday as we've got an excellent pitching matchup (battle of lefties) and I'm calling for an Under here. 

Patrick Corbin is working on a string of five straight quality outings for Washington. Going back, 12 of his last 14 starts have been quality ones w/ one of the two exceptions coming against this Atlanta team as he only allowed two runs, but only went five innings. That game, a 4-3 Nationals' loss, stayed Under the total. So did Corbin's next start vs. the Braves, a 6-3 win at home. He was opposed that day by Dallas Keuchel, the same pitcher he'll square off against tonight. The Under is 9-3 in Corbin's L12 starts overall. He's 6-1 w/ a 1.96 ERA in his career vs. Atlanta. 

Keuchel cannot claim that kind of success vs. Washington, but what he can claim are some outstanding recent numbers. His last four starts have seen him go 3-0 w/ a 1.08 ERA. He's allowed only three runs in 25 IP. This was quite the savvy mid-season pickup by the Braves, who have gone 5-2 w/ Keuchel on the mound at home. He's got a 2.38 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in those starts. Overall, the Braves' last four games have all gone Under. Their pitching has held opponents to a .211 batting average over the last week. 10* Under Nationals/Braves

8* Baltimore (7:05 ET): Coming into the season, I didn't think there was any way that the Orioles could have a repeat of last year's dreadful 47-win campaign. So here we are w/ a month left to go in the season and they are one win away from matching LY's total. Can't say we've played the O's too many times in 2019, but they get a rare endorsement tonight at home vs. Texas. While they did lose 3-1 last night, it's highly unlikely that they'll go 0 for 13 w/ RISP again and tonight's starting pitching matchup certainly seems to work in their favor. Baltimore matches LY's win total tonight! 

Dylan Bundy has been one of Baltimore's more reliable starters during this tough era. He has a 9-17 TSR this year, but pitched pretty well in August and more importantly has a 1.61 ERA in six career appearances vs. Texas. Bundy's last four starts at home have all seen him allow 2 ER or less. Right now, the Rangers' offense is struggling as they've managed just five runs total the L3 games and had only five hits in yday's win. Eight of the last 10 games have seen the Rangers get held to three runs or fewer. Note this could be just the 2nd time all year Baltimore closes at -125 or higher on the ML, which certainly says something about the matchup. 

Little known Brock Burke gets the start tonight for Texas. He's actually off to a decent start to his big league career w/ a 1.50 ERA after three starts. But he still has yet to win a decision. Once again, he doesn't figure to get much help from his offense, which has scored a total of just six runs in his three previous starts. Texas is 1-10 its last 11 games after allowing 2 runs or less. They are also just 11-23 their L34 road games. All four games these teams have played this year have been close. This time Baltimore wins. 8* Baltimore

10* Over Packers/Bears (8:25 ET): Going into last year, I predicted that Chicago would be one of the more improved teams in the league. Little did I know just HOW improved they'd end up being. The Bears rode of the league's top defenses to 12-4 SU and the NFC North title while 1st year HC Matt Nagy also retooled the offense. They ended up being one and done in the playoffs, losing at home to Philadelphia on the infamous Cody Parkey missed kick. For 2019, I do not think the Bears will match LY's win total, but do expect they'll still contend for the playoffs. 

When the Packers fell to 7-9 SU in 2017, they had the built-in excuse of an Aaron Rodgers injury. But w/ a full season of Rodgers, the Pack shockingly won one fewer game in 2018. Mike McCarthy was finally shown the door and in steps Matt LaFleur, who will be tasked with squeezing the most out of the team w/ Rodgers still in his prime. I do think Green Bay will be better this year. In fact, they're my call to win the division. That doesn't mean I'm picking them to win here in Chicago though. One thing is for certain - after blowing a huge lead to Green Bay in Week 1 last year, the Bears will come out motivated at home. 

Four of the last five meetings between these rivals have gone Over the number. The one that didn't was the most recent, a 24-17 victory by the Bears that snapped a five-game losing streak in the rivalry. The Bears scored 23 and 24 in the two games last year and I think the offense should continue to improve under Nagy. I do not think the defense will be able to match LY's numbers. Specfically, a +12 turnover margin. The Bears also lost DC Vic Fangio. Free from the shackles of McCarthy, expect Rodgers to excel. He threw only TWO INT's LY despite 450+ attempts. Unfortunately, I'm not sold on the Packers' defense. The Pack have gone Over in 7 of their last 8 regular season openers and 37 of their L55 road games. 10* Over Packers/Bears

10* Under Tigers/Royals (1:15 ET): So we won w/ the Royals last night as they came from behind to win 5-4. They now go for a series sweep on Thursday afternoon, but unlike yday won't have the starting pitching matchup squarely in their favor. In fact, they go from big favorites on the money line to underdogs today as they face the Tigers' best pitcher Matthew Boyd. The Royals are forced to send out Glenn Sparkman, who has an 0-8 team start record his last eight outings. But, in the end, look for this to be a low-scoring game between two bad teams. Take the Under.

Boyd has done his best pitching for a horrendous team, but the numbers we ran through in yesterday's story paint a grim picture of what he's up against. The Tigers have now been outscored by 272 runs this season and have just 40 wins in 137 games played. A big reason they have the worst run differential in the sport is that they have scored fewer runs than everyone else. In fact, with the exception of one team (Miami), every other team has scored at least 86 more runs than the Tigers this season. Sparkman has never started against them, but has a 2.84 ERA in two relief appearances.

Boyd will give his team the proverbial "fighting chance" though as he comes in w/ a 1.176 WHIP in 28 starts. He's off a couple of rough outings against Minnesota, but the Twins are one of the highest scoring teams in the league. Kansas City isn't much higher than Detroit offensively as they rank 27th in runs scored. Boyd has seen each of his last five starts go Over, but that streak ends here. Sparkman has a quite respectable 1.083 WHIP at home this season. The Royals had gone Over in six straight before yday, so now it's time for an Under or two to roll in. 10* Under Tigers/Royals

8* Over Phillies/Reds (12:35 ET): Cincinnati finally broke through in this series, winning last night by a score of 8-5. Thus, they got to avoid the embarrassing situation of potentially being swept in a four-game series at home. Things wrap up w/ Philly early Thursday afternoon and the Reds find themselves back as a favorite on the money line, a role that saw them LOSE each of the first two games. (Ironically, they won as a ML dog yday). I got burned by them earlier in the series, so I hesitate to jump back on, but where I don't hesitate here is with the Over. 

The Reds are actually the top Under team in baseball right now. That makes sense as they are just 22nd in runs scored vs. 8th in runs allowed. But they were able to win a high-scoring game yday after scoring only three runs in the first two games combined. They actually surpassed that number in the first two innings of last night's game, jumping out to a 5-0 lead. Expect them to find more success today against Jason Vargas, who has struggled of late - big time. Vargas has a 6.32 ERA and 1.787 WHIP his L3 starts after giving up five runs in just four innings vs. the Mets (former team) his last time out. His resume against the Reds isn't very good as either as his ERA is 6.30 in five career starts. 

Now the starter for the Reds on Thursday, Sonny Gray, does have an outstanding recent resume. He's 5-0 his last seven starts w/ a 1.50 ERA and 1.095 WHIP. It's important to note the two games he did not win were both blown saves. Despite the fact that the Reds do have good pitching, the Phillies have averaged six runs per game in this series. When Gray faced them earlier in the year, he allowed three runs in 5 2/3 innings. While Gray has been mostly successful of late, he does still walk a lot of hitters. Two starts ago, he walked five. As Gray knows all too well, the Reds' bullpen has been a problem w/ one of the worst ERA's (5.06) in all of MLB. 8* Over Phillies/Reds

6* Kansas City (8:15 ET): If you're shocked by how much juice you have to lay to play the Royals tonight, don't be. Obviously, it has to be a weak opponent and really they come no weaker than the Tigers, who are on pace to get outscored by 300 runs this year! To put that number in proper perspective, consider that even LY's historically bad Orioles team (47 wins) was outscored by "only" 270 runs. The Tigers surpassed that number (now -271 in run differential) w/ last night's 6-5 loss here at Kauffman Stadium. They have the dubious distinction of also having the worst record in all of MLB (40-96) as there's a good chance they finish WORSE than the Orioles of 2018. Definitely take Kansas City here. 

Believe it or not, but the Royals "should" have a better record. Their run differential, while poor (-149) is roughly the same as the 61-77 White Sox. Thus, the fact the Royals have just 50 wins is a tad bit misleading. Obviously, one has underachieved while the other has overachieved, but both the White Sox and Royals have played to the level of a 54-win team. This will be the 1st time all season that KC is higher than -175 on the money line. They are 3-1 in that role the previous two seasons.

Detroit has lost 9 of 10 and will send Edwin Jackson to the mound tonight. He is not a good bet to "stop the bleeding." Jackson has terrible numbers this year as his ERA is 9.35 and his WHIP is 1.962. Things have only gotten worse for him recently w/ a 11.68 ERA and 2.433 WHIP his L3 starts. In B2B starts vs. the Twins, he allowed 14 runs in 7 1/3 IP. Last night's walk-off victory was KC's 3rd in a row as they've taken advantage of hosting the two worst teams in baseball (Baltimore, Detroit). They send Jakob Junis to the bump on Wednesday and Junis has had plenty of success in the past against the Tigers w/ a 7-1 record, 3.18 ERA and 59 strikeouts in 10 starts. That's his most wins and strikeouts against any opponent. KC rolls here. 6* Kansas City

10* Over Angels/A's (10:07 ET): For the 2nd weekend in a row, things did not go the A's way as they again lost both Saturday and Sunday. Dropping a couple games to the Yankees (in New York) is certainly forgivable (I had the Yanks Saturday), but Oakland can't afford to be losing games right now as they are locked in a very tight race for the Wild Card w/ Cleveland and Tampa Bay. Those three teams are separated by just one game w/ the A's now on the "outside looking in." Thankfully for them, Tuesday's matchup definitely looks to be in their favor, particularly in the starting pitching department. That said, it's the Over I'm going w/ in this series opener against the division rival Angels. 

Los Angeles is not in playoff contention as they instead continue to live in their perpetual state of mediocrity. Right now, they are a season-worst eight games below .500, so either they are going to be a dangerous out for Oakland, or simply "roll over." When it comes to the offense, I expect the Angels to continue to produce. They come in averaging a healthy 5.0 rpg and had scored 16 runs against the Red Sox Friday & Saturday before getting held to only three on Sunday. Not only is the Over 7-3 in their last 10 meetings w/ the A's, it is 11-4 their L15 games here in Oakland. 

I mentioned the starting pitching matchup earlier and how it does look to be firmly in the A's favor. Michael Fiers has a 7-0 TSR his L7 starts w/ a 2.72 ERA, although his 1.209 WHIP doesn't exactly signal dominance. Fiers has been dominant at home this year, but the only two times he's faced the Angels were on the road. He has a 4.84 ERA in 13 previous appearances against them. For the Halos, Jaime Barria has an 0-5 TSR his L5 starts and the last four have all been on the road. Barria has not faced the A's yet this year. Both of these teams are more than capable of "bringing the offense" and after a relatively low-scoring series w/ the Yankees, look for the A's to "tee off" against Barria and the Angels. 10* Over Angels/A's

8* Houston (7:40 ET): I've been waiting for awhile to see Milwaukee's playoff hopes get "put to rest" and this might finally be the series where that happens. They Brew Crew are matched up w/ Houston, who has come a long way since these teams were division rivals. The Astros are, for my money, the best team in the American League (even though they have the same record as the Yankees). They beat the Brewers last night here at Miller Park, 3-2 in 11 innings, which was their ninth win in the L11 games. They'll send Zack Greinke to the mound tonight, giving them an obvious advantage there.

Greinke hasn't exactly been dominant since coming over from Arizona, but the Astros have won four of his five starts for them. The loss came his last time out, against Tampa Bay, the second time Greinke allowed five runs while wearing an Astros' uniform. But the "catch" is both of those starts came at home. He's actually been a better pitcher on the road this season, which may not be in line w/ his career numbers, but we'll take it anyway. In 15 road starts, Greinke has a 2.74 ERA and 0.957 WHIP. He's 8-3 in those 15 starts and while his TSR is a misleading 8-7 in those games, all four no-decisions that were losses came when he was still w/ Arizona. 

Milwaukee counters w/ Jordan Lyles, who was also a trade deadline acquisition, albeit a far more questionable one from the Pirates. Lyles has pitched significantly better for the Brewers (his TSR is 5-1), but he'll be "up against it" today facing an Astros lineup that has averaged 7.25 runs over its L8 games. It's been a low-scoring last couple of days for the 'Stros, not that they've needed much scoring considering how Justin Verlander (no-hitter) and Gerrit Cole pitched. Greinke has a 16-4 record all-time at Miller Park from his time w/ the Brewers and should be the latest example of how the Astros have the best rotation in baseball heading into the postseason. 8* Houston

8* Over Astros/Brewers (7:40 ET): Despite the presence of Greinke on the mound, I also like this game to go Over the total on Tuesday. What's perhaps most interesting about this game is that each starter used to pitch for the other team. At the end of the analysis on the side, I mentioned all the success Greinke had here in Milwaukee as a member of the Brewers. Well, Lyles used to pitch for the Astros. He should quickly find out that it's better to have them as teammates than opponents. 8* Over Astros/Brewers

7* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): This is a battle of last place teams in the National League, but one is clearly better and also playing (arguably) its best baseball of the season right now. Pittsburgh is coming off a four-game sweep of Colorado, on the road, and now gets to return home to face a Miami team that has easily been the NL's worst team all year long. The Marlins were just swept in their last series (in Washington) running their road losing streak to 15 games. It's a streak that dates all the way back to late July! They've lost 13 of their last 16 games overall. That leads me to this rare endorsement of the Pirates Tuesday night. 

Miami has been outscored by 177 runs this year, easily the worst differential in the Senior Circuit as they have scored an NL-low 502 runs themselves. That's more than 100 fewer than every other team. It's not like their pitching has been great either. Over the weekend, they allowed 23 runs in three games to the Nationals and eight home runs. Tonight's starter Sandy Alcantara has not only seen the team lose each of his L3 starts, but the Marlins were shut out in two of the losses. Alcantara is just 4-12 on the year and going back to April the team has dropped 18 of his last 24 starts. 

Pittsburgh should take full advantage of Miami's woes as they come off a series in which they scored 37 runs in four games. Yes, that was at Coors Field, but perhaps equally as impressive was the fact they got three quality starts in Denver and allowed just 18 runs. Tuesday starter Mitch Keller gets a break here in facing the weak Miami lineup. Keller has a 2.45 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in his only two previous starts here at PNC Park, so he should bounce back from the rough outing last week in Philadelphia. Meanwhile, I expect the Pirates' hitters to keep up the torrid pace as the last two home games, they went for 23 runs. Overall, the Bucs have won 8 of 10. 7* Pittsburgh

10* Over Notre Dame/Louisville (8:00 ET): This number has been bet way down, opening up an opportunity to bet the game Over. Louisville is coming off an absolutely disastrous 2018 campaign that led to Bobby Petrino being run out of town (again!) But as bad as last year was, I think Scott Sattefield is walking into a fairly ideal situation here as the Cardinals can only improve in 2019. Aiding in that improvement is the fact there are 16 returning starters, including 10 on the defensive side of the ball. But make no mistake about it, this defense has a LONG way to go after giving up a ghastly 44.1 PPG a year ago. 

While Louisville fell into the abyss, Notre Dame made it all the way to the College Football Playoff. They were of course embarrassed by Clemson, losing 30-3 as 12-pt underdogs. That line and subsequent result raised questions about whether or not the Irish were deserving of the spot in the playoffs, but if this school goes unbeaten in the regular season, they're always going to get in. I don't think this is anything close to a playoff team in 2019 and in fact expect some fairly serious regression in South Bend. They were a perfect 4-0 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less last year and that isn't likely to repeat itself. 

Notre Dame's defense was really good last year, giving up just 18.2 PPG. That was their lowest number under HC Brian Kelly since the team that reached the Nat'l Champ Game in 2012 (and also got embarrassed). But they lost three players to the NFL Draft on that side of the ball as well as three of their top five tacklers. Louisville isn't going to be as inept offensively as they were last year, but the defense will continue to struggle early on, despite all those returning starters. Both teams return LY's starter at QB, so it'll be the offenses that are ahead of the defenses in this one. Louisville closed last season on a 7-1 Over run. 10* Over Notre Dame/Louisville

10* Under Edmonton/Calgary (4:30 ET): The CFL's fiercest rivalry is renewed on Labour Day w/ the second "Battle of Alberta" this season. The first went the way of the Stampeders, who were a 1-pt home dog in a 24-18 win four weeks ago. That game was started by Nick Arbuckle, who did an admirable job in guiding the Stamps to a 4-3 record in his seven starts. But it's back to Bo Levi Mitchell on Monday as the two-time Most Outstanding Player is set to return for the first time since Week 3. It's a tough spot to return though, facing an Edmonton defense that is good as any in the league. Take the Under.

The Eskimos are giving up just 19.8 PPG, second fewest in the league. They're also allowing just 260 yards per game, easily the fewest in the league. They're off a loss - and their worst defensive showing to date - 34-28 at home to Winnipeg last week. You can bet that the Edmonton stop unit will be looking to bounce back. Like Calgary, before going Over each of the last two games, the Eskimos had an Under streak of five straight games. The Stampeders' defense is also quite good, despite getting gashed for 40 points to Montreal two weeks ago. You can bet that being off a bye should benefit the Stamps' defense. 

Note Edmonton lost last week despite allowing only 251 total yds. It's thus pretty shocking they allowed the 34 points. They held Calgary to 227 total yds in the first meeting. I understand that the faithful in Calgary are probably ecstatic over the return of Mitchell, but remember that Arbuckle was playing well (completed 86% of his pass attempts last week) and it's going to take some time for Mitchell to get back into form. Also, in three of its last six games, the Eskimos have failed to top 18 points. The Under is 8-2-1 their L11 road games. 10* Under Edmonton/Calgary

10* Arizona (4:10 ET): For being division rivals (NL West), these teams sure haven't played in awhile. It was back in May when they last met and the Padres pulled off a three-game sweep in San Diego. It's been a frustrating season for the D'backs, but they're still a better team than the Padres and should easily be able to exact some revenge here. Plus, the D'backs come into this one playing as well as they have all season long. They've won six of seven w/ the lone loss coming yday in extra innings (to the Dodgers). I've said it before, but Arizona is actually better than its record (70-67) as they've outscored opponents by 68 runs over the course of the season. That's a comparable differential to both the Cardinals and Cubs! 

Back when San Diego swept the D'backs back in late May they were on their way to a 28-24 start, which included a 7-3 record vs. Arizona. Since then, the Padres have gone just 36-48. They come off a successful series in San Francisco where they took three of four. But my view on the Giants (overrated!) is overstated at this point. The Padres winning three straight games doesn't happen often. In fact, it's happened just twice since the Break. 

I'm somewhat stunned that the money line isn't higher for Monday. Padres' starter Cal Quantrill has a 7.47 ERA his L3 starts. The team is just 5-9 his L14 starts overall. Last time out was his worst start of the year, allowing eight runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 9-0 loss to the Dodgers. Meanwhile, Mike Leake threw 7 1/3 innings his last time out for Arizona and allowed just two runs in a win over the Giants. Leake has a 7-3 record at home. Like Quantrill, he's yet to start a game in this NL West rivalry this year. The D'backs nearly just swept a four-game series from the Dodgers over the weekend. They can certainly beat San Diego. 10* Arizona

8* Cincinnati (2:10 ET): The Reds are a team that just got done playing two doubleheaders in the last two days. They lost three of the four games, winning only the second yesterday. I actually faded them in the first where St. Louis ended up coming back to break their hearts, 4-3, scoring in each of the final three innings. Two of the Reds' three losses over the weekend came in the final at-bat. Back them today, however, as they're at home and facing an inferior opponent. The Phillies just got done playing the Sunday Night Game (on ESPN) where they avoided a sweep by beating the Mets. So it's a short turnaround for both teams. 

Having the home field edge is big for the Reds. They are 37-31 at Great American Ballpark as opposed to 27-42 on the road. The recent swoon (lost 7 of 11) has as much to do w/ all those games being played on the road. Then there's this: Cincinnati has actually outscored its opponents this year (+14) despite a 64-73 record. Philadelphia is 70-65, but has been outscored by 14 runs on the season. So there's an arguement to made that the Reds are the better team. That's why we're taking them! 

Anthony DeSclafani starts the opener for Cincy, looking for his 10th win of the season. He has a 3.19 ERA at home and has been really sharp of late w/ a 1.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP his L3 starts overall. During that time, he's given up just 2 ER on 12 hits in 18 IP. He threw seven shutout innings his last start. Philly counters w/ Drew Smyly, whose numbers haven't been particularly impressive dating back to his time w/ Texas. He's made seven starts for the Phillies and has a 4.97 ERA and 1.368 WHIP. He's won just one decision in those seven starts. The Phils are 27-53 their L80 games as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range, including 4-13 this season. 8* Cincinnati

10* Houston (7:30 ET): Oklahoma HC Lincoln Riley has earned the moniker of "quarterback whisperer" in his two seasons at Norman, although I'm not sure just how much actual whispering is required when you have the likes of Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray (the last two #1 overall DC's of the NFL) at your disposal. Riley and the Sooners have seemingly been gifted another star QB in the form of Jalen Hurts, who transferred out of Alabama when it became Tua Tagovailoa was the man in Tuscaloosa. Hurts will be tasked w/ leading a team in search of its fourth playoff appearance in the last five years. The Sooners figure to be favored in every game this season, but are laying a hefty number to a Houston team in the opener. Take the points here. 

It was 2016, one year before Riley took over for Bob Stoops, that Oklahoma lost outright to Houston in the season opener. They were 12-pt favorites that day, on a neutral field, and lost 33-23 to a Houston team that had legit playoff aspirations of their own that season. Things didn't play out that way (team finished 9-4 SU that year) and Tom Herman wound up leaving for Texas. After two seasons of Major Applewhite at the helm, a change was made and Dana Holgorsen is now running the show. Holgorsen is very familiar w/ OU having coached at WVU the last eight seasons. He didn't have much success, but this team is arguably more talented than what he had the last few years in Morgantown.

Speaking of QB's, Houston's D'Eriq King must be mentioned. He accounted for FIFTY touchdowns a year ago and that was with missing the final two games, neither of which went well for the Cougars. Injuries also hurt on the defensive side of the ball and that showed in those final two games (both blowout losses). But because of those injuries, the returning defense has more experience. Under Holgorsen, King should flourish. This is a very dangerous Houston team, one that should not be getting this many points, even in Norman. The Cougars were actually favored in every game King started last year. Oklahoma has failed to cover five of the last seven times it has been chalk of 21.5 to 31 points. 10* Houston

10* Colorado (3:10 ET): You don't see a road team sweeping a four-game series very often and of all the teams you'd think capable of pulling it off, the Pirates would (and should!) probably be near the bottom of the list. Especially at Coors Field no less! The Rockies' once-vaunted homefield edge seems to have disappaited some here in 2019 as they shockingly have gone just .500 (34-34) here at Coors. But I can't see them being swept this weekend, even though this series has clearly not gone well for them so far. I love this as a "sell high" spot on Pittsburgh, who has failed to win the L3 times they've been on a three-game win streak. In fact, they have just ONE win streak of more than three games since April! 

It was months ago that I said you should sell on the Pirates, who were masquerading as a .500 team despite a poor run differential. I predicted they would sink to the bottom of the NL Central and that's exactly what's transpired as they've gone just 15-32 since the Break. Keep in mind that includes the three wins in this series. They usually give up a lot of runs, so I'm really quite shocked that Colorado's offense hasn't performed better in this series. Steven Brault will start Sunday's finale for the Bucs and while he's having a decent enough season, his 9.00 ERA in two previous appearances vs. the Rockies should definitely give some pause. The Bucs had lost six straight Brault starts before winning his last one, 5-4 at Philadelphia. 

Jeff Hoffman has mainly been a "spot starter" for Colorado this year and admittedly most of those "spots" haven't gone well. Nor have the L10 games gone well for the Rockies as they're just 1-9 overall. But I still believe in the spot they're in Sunday, that being trying to avoid a 4-game sweep at home. As rough as things have been, Hoffman and the Rockies find a way to win today. 10* Colorado

6* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): The Indians were the hottest team in baseball for awhile, but have run into the proverbial "brick wall" here in Tampa Bay, losing 4-0 Friday and 9-6 Saturday. In an ultra-tight Wild Card race, the losses have proven costly. It's a three-team race w/ the Indians' advantage now down to just one-half game over both the Rays and A's entering Sunday. The Tribe have also sustained two key injuries during the last week, one to Jose Ramirez and the other to Tyler Nayquin. Jason Kipnis also left yday's game w/ a wrist injury. They're sizable underdogs on the money line Sunday afternoon and unfortunately, I see this being another loss for them at Tropicana Field. 

Given the way this series has gone so far, Cleveland would hate to have to make a return visit for the Wild Card Game. The Rays actually have a better record on the road than they do at home, but as Cleveland has found out (the hard way), it's tough to score against TB pitching. Even when they did put six runs on the board yday, they still lost. That's bad news as they are highly unlikely to score that many again today facing Charlie Morton, who has gone 13-6 in 28 starts for the Rays this season. Morton's numbers are better at home as he has a 2.68 ERA and 0.942 WHIP. 

The Rays have taken five of the six meetings w/ the Indians this season and yesterday's game was actually the first time that the Indians scored more than three runs. Cleveland has now lost seven of its last eight road games that weren't played in Detroit. Adam Plutko faces a lot of pressure in Sunday's start and while he's having a decent year, his worst start to date came against the Rays on May 23rd when he allowed 7 runs and 12 hits in just 5 1/3 IP. 6* Tampa Bay

8* St. Louis (1:05 ET): It's the second day in a row that the Reds & Cardinals play a doubleheader here at Busch Stadium. The home team swept yday, winning by scores of 10-6 and 3-2. That has to be quite demoralizing for a Reds team that may be underrated, but is also playing out the string at this point. This is a play on the FIRST game of Sunday's doubleheader. The Cards are a hot team right now as they've surged to the top of the NL Central by winning 17 of their last 21 games. Make it one more win this afternoon as they take the opener of this day-night twinbill. 

While Sunday's starter Miles Mikolas is 0-3 w/ a 6.43 ERA in four previous starts vs. the Reds this year, St. Louis still looks to have a decided edge in this first game. First off, three of those four Mikolas starts came away from home (two in Cincinnati, one in Mexico). Mikolas is a different pitcher here in the Gateway City as he owns a 2.80 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 13 starts. The team is also now 42-24 at home following yday's sweep. His last time out, Mikolas pitched quite well (at Milwaukee), as he went six innings and allowed just one run on four hits while striking out 10. 

Day games haven't gone too well for the Reds this year as they're just 17-34 in them this season. They are also 26-41 on the road and have lost six of their last nine games overall. For Game 1 of this doubleheader, they've recalled Tyler Mahle, who was originally slated to start yday. Mahle has battled injuries and inconsistency in 2019 and will be making his first big league start since July 19th. The Reds have lost the L5 times he's started. He has a 7.84 ERA in two prior starts vs. St. Louis this year and his minor league stint didn't exactly go too well either w/ him allowing 14 runs in 9 2/3 IP. Only three teams have allowed fewer runs this season than the Cardinals have and Cincinnati is only 23rd in all of MLB in runs scored. 8* St. Louis

10* Duke (3:30 ET): I'm certain you recall Alabama being absolutely humiliated by Clemson last January in the BCS Title Game as Nick Saban was handed perhaps his worst ever defeat, losing 44-16. So the narrative seems to be that the Crimson Tide are going to come out angry in 2019, looking to blow everyone away (much like they did last year before running into Clemson). The Tide are quite accustomed to these neutral site season openers, winning nine in a row by an average of 24 PPG. But I'd be hesitant about laying this many points. In fact, I'm grabbing the number as Duke is always pesky under HC David Cutcliffe. 

Now, at the end of the game, I fully anticipate the announcers yelling "Roll Tide." I just don't think they'll "roll" as much as the oddsmakers think they will. Duke comes into the year having to replace QB Daniel Jones, who the NFL's Giants made their top draft choice. While that pick may have been somewhat maligned by draftniks, Jones will be missed in Durham. Still, I trust Cutcliffe enough to expect him to get something out of the QB position. Quentin Harris has made only two career starts (both coming LY when Jones was hurt), but is a senior. One starting receiver (Jake Bobo) is out, but he didn't exactly have awe-inspiring numbers last year. The bottom line is that the only P5 teams w/ more bowl victories than Duke in the L4 years are: Alabama, Clemson and Wisconsin. 

The Blue Devils can make a game out of this, at least for awhile, which will keep this game within the number. Alabama obviously lost a ton of talent to the NFL. While they're in solid position to replace it, there will still be many first-time starters in the lineup. I don't expect the same fire we saw from the Tide last year, at least in non-conference play. Maybe that will disappoint Saban, but he can settle for another SEC Title & playoff sport. Duke is 10-2 ATS as an underdog the last two seasons and 8-2 ATS when getting 31 or more points going back to '93. 10* Duke

8* NY Yankees (1:05 ET): Needless to say, the Yankees losing last night - by a score of 8-2 no less - really shocked me. They came into this series not only armed w/ revenge, but also one of the best home field advantages in the sport. They also had the scheduling advantage coming off an off day while Oakland didn't have any time off between series. Nevertheless, the A's were able to run their YTD mark to 4-0 vs. NY. For them, that qualifies as a bit of revenge for losing LY's Wild Card Game in this stadium. But it's the Yankees turn to exact some revenge Saturday as I'm sticking with them in what looks - on paper - to be a more lopsided matchup (in their favor) than yday. 

The Yankees had an early 2-1 lead Friday, but starter CC Sabathia had to be pulled due to a reoccurence of his ongoing knee issue. That was too bad b/c Sabathia had been sharp in his three innings of work. The only hit allowed was a solo HR by Jurickson Profar. We're going to count on Domingo German to get the job done Saturday afternoon as he enters this game w/ 16-3 record in 22 starts (18-4 TSR) including dominant numbers here at home (2.32 ERA, 0.994 WHIP). His only loss in his L10 starts came against the A's back on 8.20, so the revenge angle happens to be "personal" for him as well. 

I just can't see the Yankees dropping to 0-5 against the A's this season. They are still 49-22 at home this season, including 22-5 as a favorite of -125 to -175. Last night was a very "un-Yankee like" performance at the plate as it was the first time in 12 games they failed to hit a home run and their L16 batters were all sent down in order. Expect MLB's highest scoring team to bounce back tonight as they're 28-18 off a loss this season and 19-7 after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. A's starter Homer Bailey might be 6-2 since coming over from the Royals, but he has a 5.52 ERA as well and is ripe to get "beaten up" here. On the road, Bailey has a 6.05 ERA and 1.442 WHIP. 8* NY Yankees

8* Memphis (12:00 ET): Consider all that happened to Memphis last season. There were four different games where they blew a DD lead and lost. Two were against a UCF team that would run the table in the regular season. The other two were upset losses at the hands of Navy (terrible weather) and Wake Forest (Birmingham Bowl). They were also upset as two-touchdown chalk at Tulane. That Tulane loss left them 0-2 in AAC play. Yet the Tigers would still go onto win their division and appear in the Conference Title Game. This year's team projects to be better and I'm taking them in the season opener vs. Ole Miss.

Now you may be questioning laying points w/ an AAC team against an opponent from the big, bad SEC. But know that Memphis has gone 13-2 SU at the Liberty Bowl the L2 seasons w/ both losses coming by a single point! They are 0-4 SU against UCF the L2 yrs, but 18-5 SU vs. everyone else. It was four years ago that Ole Miss came to the Liberty Bowl as a 10-pt favorite and lost by double digits (38-24). That was a much more talented Rebels squad too; at the time they were ranked #13 in the country. The Ole Miss team that arrives this year hasn't had a winning season since 2015. They have just three returning starters on offense as well. 

Now the Rebels were dealing w/ a bowl ban the L2 years and have made significant changes at coordinator w/ Rich Rod running the offense and Mike MacIntyre running the defense for HC Matt Luke. There are 10 starters back on defense. But they are going to struggle to score in the early going (freshman QB) and that should prove costly against a Memphis team that's averaged no fewer than 38.8 PPG under HC Jay Norvell. This is an 11 AM start local time. Ole Miss has gone just 3-6 SU, 2-6 ATS on the road the L2 seasons and is 2-10 SU, 2-9 ATS as a dog. Memphis is not only 13-2 SU at home the L2 season, but also 10-5 ATS. Lay the short number. 8* Memphis

10* Boise State (12:00 ET): Well, Mother Nature has intervened here, moving the game from Jacksonville to Tallahassee due to the threat of Hurricane Dorian. That turns it from a de facto to actual home game for Florida State. In the interest of full disclosure, I had Boise State before the news came out. I'm sticking w/ them too as now we'll (likely) be able to get an even better number. Remember this is just as much a disruption for FSU as it is the Broncos (game takes place earlier in the day now too). You're not going to see Boise, a 31-win team the last three seasons, getting points very often. Take advantage. 

Florida State does figure to be one of the more improved teams in the country. Last year seemed almost like a "worst case scenario" under HC Willie Taggart as the 'Noles finished 5-7 SU and missed out on a bowl for the 1st time since 1982! It was their first losing season since Bobby Bowden's 1st year here, back in 1976! Taggart can only dream of the kind of career Bowden had here. While this team is definitely going to be better than last year's edition, I think this spread is a classic case of "putting the cart before the horse," or Bronco, whichever you'd like. 

The last two years have seen Florida State go just 8-16 against the spread. Boise State is a perfect 4-0 ATS as a dog. FSU had only one win over a ranked team last year and it was BC (#22) by 1 pt here at home. Boise State brings a tremendous defense to Florida. The Florida State defense remains a question mark. Due to the change in time and venue, plus weather uncertainty, don't be surprised if this turns into a low-scoring game as well. Fewer total points scored is just another reason to take the underdog in this one as Boise's freshman QB Hank Bachmeier can make some plays. 10* Boise State

10* Under Mariners/Rangers (8:05 ET): These two AL West also-rans are just playing out the string at this point. Of course, there was a time very early in the season when Seattle was feeling much better about itself. They were 13-2 after 15 games, but I cautioned to sell high and sure enough they've gone just 44-76 ever since. The promise of a decent season in Arlington lasted a little longer as the Rangers were eight games over .500 on July 12th. But they've gone just 15-28 ever since and thus we've got a pretty meaningless series on our hands this weekend. Seattle took the opener Thursday night, 5-3, and I expect another relatively low-scoring game tonight. Take the Under.

It may seem strange to bet the Under w/ two less than stellar starters and the game taking place at Globe Life Park. Rangers' home games are averaging 11.2 runs per game this season and Seattle is 76-49-10 to the Over in all games in 2019. But it's both a high number and a battle of lefties Friday night, elements conducive to an Under. The Under is 6-1 in the Rangers' previous seven games as they've averaged just 2.3 rpg while hitting a collective .164. The Mariners haven't done much better in the same stretch, averaging 3.9 rpg w/ a team batting average of .196. 

Texas has been held to four runs or fewer in 9 of its last 10 games. So that's good news for Mariners' starter Marco Gonzales, who is not only coming off a quality start vs. Toronto, but also held the Rangers to two runs in seven innings the last time he faced them. That was a little over a month ago, in Seattle, and note Gonzales' lone start in this ballpark in 2019 produced a nearly identical statline. Back in April, he threw seven shutout innings against the Rangers at home. Texas' Kolby Allard threw six shutout innings in his last start (against the White Sox) and has the advantage w/ the Mariners never having faced him before. Note that more than half (5) of the total runs scored in yday's game came on plays that were NOT hits. 10* Under Mariners/Rangers

10* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): This price seems way too low on the Yankees given a) they are at home where they've gone 49-20 this season and b) they have revenge for a three-game sweep they suffered out in Oakland last week. After being swept out in Oakland, the Yanks finished the road trip by going 5-1, the only loss coming to the Dodgers. They just finished their own sweep (of Seattle) earlier this week and not like they need it, but another advantage NY has coming into this game is they had Thursday off while the A's were in Kansas City. Getting back to the subject of price, the Yankees are 22-4 this season when priced between -125 and -175 on the ML! 

Perhaps the reason for the Yankees being so well-priced here has to do w/ starter CC Sabathia. We'll get to the "hefty lefty" in a minute, but first note that Oakland starter Brett Anderson has been no better of late. Anderson sports the same 0-3 TSR his L3 starts and while two of those were opposite Madison Bumgarner and Zack Greinke, last time out he lost as a -155 favorite to the Giants at home. What's most unimpressive about Anderson is his low strikeout numbers. The most batters he's struck out in any start this season is five and overall he has only 76 K's in 150 IP this season. He's 1-4 w/ a 4.93 ERA his L6 starts and perhaps worst of all is his career record vs the Yankees, which is 0-6 w/ a 6.86 ERA in eight outings. 

Admittedly, Sabathia has struggled himself of late. In two starts since returning from the DL, he's lasted a combined seven innings. But he's got the better team behind him here. Also, at home, Sabathia has a 7-2 TSR w/ a very respectable 3.19 ERA. He nor Anderson pitched in last week's series. Oakland has gone just 3-3 since sweeping the Yanks and those games were against the lowly Royals and Giants. This price is just too good to pass up. 10* NY Yankees

8* Army (6:00 ET): Army just keeps marching along under HC Jeff Monken, who has set a new school record for wins in a single season each of the last two years! The Cadets were 11-2 last year, one of those losses coming at Oklahoma (in overtime!) The other was the season opener at Duke, the only "bad" game they played all season. Something tells me that Monken will have his team far better prepared for the season opener this year, which comes against a Rice team that projects to be one of the worst, if not THE worst team in the entire country! The Black Knights can name the score here. Lay the points. 

Army has gone 21-5 SU the last two seasons and ended LY ranked #19 after clobbering Houston 70-14 in the Armed Forces Bowl. This is truly a team to be reckoned with now. They've won 23 straight at West Point as well. Rice won't be threatening them straight up here, rather it's all about the pointspread and final margin of victory. Yes, the Owls have had a full offseason to prepare for the triple option offense Army runs. But considering how bad the defense was last year, it'll take a lot more than just preparation. The last two games vs. Army have resulted in losses by a combined score of 80-26. 

Rice won just two games last year, the opener (vs. FCS Prairie View A&M) and the finale (upset of Old Dominion). In between, they lost 11 in a row and were outgained by 138 yards per game in C-USA. Unless something drastic changes, the Owls project to be underdogs in all 12 games this year. They were 0-7 SU on the road a season ago, losing all seven by at least two touchdowns. The defensive line is inexperienced coming into the year. Army's offense led the country in time of possession last year while Rice's simply lacks the firepower to keep up. Last year, the Owls averaged only 18.9 PPG (actually up from 16.3 in '17!) 8* Army 

8* Utah (10:15 ET): One of these years, BYU is going to win a "Holy War" (lost 8 in a row). It just isn't going to be in 2019. The Cougars seemed to get plenty of love from early bettors for this season opening matchup vs. rival Utah, but the Utes are a legit top 15 team in the country this year and one of the favorites out in the Pac 12. Thus, this number looks to be way too short. Yes, many of these games have been close, including last year when Utah came back from a 27-7 deficit to win 35-27 (-11) in Salt Lake. But this Utes team just may be the most talented BYU has faced in recent memory. Lay the short number.

Consider that last year Utah made it to the Pac 12 Championship Game (lost to Washington 10-3) despite losing their starting QB and RB midway through the season. Both are back and ready to contribute in a major way. You know the Utes are going to be eager to take the field here after losing a bowl for just the second time under HC Whittingham. Something not talked about enough outside Pac 12 circles is that Utah perennially has one of the best special teams units in the country. They are also very strong along both the offensive and defensive lines entering the season. 

BYU went 7-6 last season, a nice bounce back from the somewhat shocking 4-win campaign in 2017. This is HC Kalane Sitaki's fourth year in Provo and obviously he's winless in "Holy Wars." While the Cougars should be a decent team in 2019, they simply are not at the level of the Utes, who (again) are a legit top 15 team. There are plenty of returning starters for Sitaki (17 total), but still there exists a gap between his team and the one in Salt Lake. Consider that in last year's comeback win, Utah didn't have either QB Huntley or RB Moss. Now they do. This number is just too low. 8* Utah

10* San Diego (9:45 ET): We've been advocating fading the Giants for some time now. They just lost a pair of games here at home to Arizona, which dropped them back below .500 for the year. After a rare off day (Wednesday), the Giants now turn to hosting the Padres, who also have lost six of their last eight games. The Padres played last night and lost in 10 innings to the Dodgers. While the schedule may put them at a slight disadvantage coming into this series, that's more than made up by tonight's pitching matchup, which greatly favors San Diego. Let's continue fading an overrated Giants team! 

If you're "new to the program," the reason I've been so adamant about fading San Francisco has to do w/ their YTD run differential. Masquerading as a .500 team, the Giants have actually been outscored by 53 runs this season. That differential is indicative of a team that "should" be 12 games under .500 at this point of the season. The reason the Giants' record is better than it has any right to be is that they are 30-14 in one-run games (also 12-2 in extras). But they got a taste of their own medicine Tuesday, losing to the D'backs 3-2. 

Earlier, I mentioned the pitching matchup for tonight and how it favors the Padres. Chris Paddack will be on bump and while he was roughed up (by Boston) his last time out, he's turned in a good year for San Diego w/ a 1.031 WHIP in 22 starts. The Giants turn to Dereck Rodriguez and he's actually lost all four of his starts here at home. As a team, the Giants actually play worse at AT&T Park as they're 29-35 and average just 3.4 rpg. San Francisco has had its way w/ San Diego this year (won 7 of L8 meetings), but not here. 10* San Diego

10* Tulane (8:00 ET): Tulane has seen its win total inherit in each of Willie Fritz's three seasons. Fritz inherited a 3-win team in 2016, brought them up to 4, then 5 in 2017 (just missed a bowl) and then finally 7 last year, including that elusive bowl win (1st since '02). The Green Wave started just 2-5 SU last year before going 5-1 down the stretch. While an easier second half schedule was somewhat responsible for the surge, credit must also be given to QB Justin McMillan, whose insertion into the starting lineup also coincided w/ the surge. Only five offensive starters return for Tulane, but one is McMillan, now a senior. Fritz should also have one of his better defenses this year w/ eight starters back on that side of the ball. 

Speaking of improving, credit must be given to the coaching job being done at FIU by Butch Davis. In his two years back in Miami (previously served at "The U"), he's led the Panthers to 8 and 9-win seasons. Last year's ended with a bowl win, same as Tulane, 35-32 over Toledo. Davis will have eight starters back on both sides of the ball this year, including senior QB James Morgan (NFL prospect) and expectations are thus pretty high for this team. But after going 4-1 SU on the road last year, I see the Panthers actually taking a step back in '19 (maybe just a slight one). Last year, FIU pulled off six outright upsets as underdogs. I don't see that happening again either. 

These teams met back in 2017 w/ FIU winning 23-10 as a DD home dog. That right there should tell you how far the program has come under Davis. But look for Fritz and Tulane to get revenge here. They're used to opening the season on a Thursday night as they've done so six of the last seven seasons. After last year's early season slumber, the Green Wave will be looking to start fast in 2019. FIU has dropped 12 of its last 14 season openers, including three straight. The big key here will be Tulane's rushing offense, which averaged 219 YPG last year and will going against an FIU defense that allowed 192 YPG on the ground. 10* Tulane

8* Dallas (8:00 ET): Here's a game that's seen a significant line move as I suspect Bucs' 1st year HC Bruce Arians is going to play this one pretty conservatively. It was two weeks ago when I took the Cowboys to cover against the Rams. They did just that in a 14-10 victory. I bring that up because that game also saw a significant line move go Dallas' way. America's Team followed that win up w/ a very impressive showing last week at home vs. Houston, winning 34-0. The Cowboys' defense has played very well this preseason, giving up a total of just 27 points. Lay the number here.

Tampa Bay comes in 2-1 after winning each of the last two weeks. Their three games this preseason have all been decided by two points or less. They covered for me in the opener, in backdoor fashion, losing by only two at Pittsburgh. Then, they rallied late to beat Miami 16-14, but failed to cover the number. Last week, it was an ugly 13-12 win over Cleveland. The offensive line was dominated by the Browns, giving up five sacks. We'll be seeing the BACKUPS for that unit this week, which sounds scary. Also the Bucs' offense was shutout entirely in the first half last week as they were down 9-0 going into halftime. Backup Blaine Gabbert suffered a dislocated shoulder, adding injury to insult.

Don't expect much scoring either way in this one, but given how the Dallas defense has looked so far, you really shouldn't expect much from the Tampa Bay offense this week. The Cowboys allowed just 135 total yards last week vs. Houston, as impressive a "dress rehearsal" game as any team had. Cooper Rush has had a solid preseason and has likely already earned the backup role to Dak Prescott.  8* Dallas

8* Cincinnati (7:00 ET): Still shell-shocked from the sudden retirement of Andrew Luck, you think the Colts might be a LITTLE distracted here. They're already on the verge of a winless preseason anyway and the Luck fallout has obviously consumed camp in Indy this past week. They've averaged just 17 PPG in the first three games and failed to cover all three. Now, obviously this game in Cincinnati will be no different than the other three in that they don't have Luck. But extra precaution will now have to be taken at the QB position so that there's no more surprises heading into the regular season.

If you've been following my preseason selections the last few years, then you know that I love to bet a 1st year head coach in his first home game. More often than not, it works. The rationale is pretty simple. At a time when there's little motivation on either side, a new coach is going to want to win to get the fanbase on his side. Well, things didn't work out for new Bengals HC Zac Taylor last week at home vs. the Giants. Note Cincy did lead 17-10 early in the 4Q, only two allow two Giants' touchdowns, one on a punt return. This is Taylor's last chance to win over the fanbase in what promises to be a long season. Look for him to make good on it.

Jacoby Brissett will be the Colts starting QB when the regular season starts, but I don't think HC Frank Reich dares to play him here for risk of him getting hurt. In last year's preseason finale (also against the Bengals), the Colts did sustain a couple injuries. So it's going to be a very cautious approach from them here. Meanwhile, I believe Taylor is going to want to win. Rookie QB Ryan Finley, a 4th round DC, has had a strong camp for the Bengals. Cincy has scored 23 pts each of the last two weeks, more than the Colts have scored in any game this preseason. 8* Cincinnati

8* NY Jets (7:00 ET): Same thing as the Bengals here as  Jets HC Adam Gase is trying to avoid going winless at home in his first year at the helm. Technically, he's already 0-2 SU at home this preseason as the opener was against the Giants. The Jets lost that game 31-22 and then again last week to the Saints, 28-13. The latter was a game I still cashed in on as the Under, which won - barely, was my 10* Total of the Month. It was a rare time sitting out a 1st year HC in his home debut, but I'll come back w/ Gase and the Jets this time as they close out the preseason vs. Philadelphia. 

I'm actually quite high on the Eagles going into this year, but the team you see Thursday night won't even resemble the one you see Week 1 vs. Washington. Philly has actually had a pretty rough preseason as they've lost TWO quarterbacks to injury, those being Nate Sudfeld and Cody Kessler. Things got so dire at the position that 40-year old Josh McCown was dragged out of mothballs! McCown actually looked fairly good in his debut last week, completing 17 of 24 passes for 192 yards. But the Eagles QB situation is not pretty heading into the preseason finale. 

The Eagles lost last week to the Ravens, 26-15, as three-point home underdogs. It was a game that was ruled "no action" as weather prevented it from going a full 60 minutes. Outside of McCown, it was not a particularly good performance from the Eagles anyway. They were down 26-0 at halftime. Keep in mind that this was the "dress rehearsal" game. I'll still stand firm that the Eagles are going to win the NFC East this year, but they're not going to win this game as Gase will be out to win one in front of the faithful at MetLife Stadium. 8* NY Jets

10* Under A's/Royals (8:10 ET): We tried this play in Monday's opener and that didn't work out so well as Oakland achieved season-highs in both runs (19) and hits (23). However, last night's game was more along the lines of what we were looking for as it was only a 2-1 game, again won by the A's. Currently locked into a tight battle with the Indians and Rays for the AL Wild Card, this is a series Oakland desperately needed to sweep and now they have a chance to move closer to that goal before wrapping things up here in KC tomorrow. But it's back to the Under for tonight as this should be another low scoring game. 

Oakland got all of its offense in the first two innings last night and finished w/ only five hits. So it was a very different win from Monday. We probably need not worry about Kansas City doing much damage at the plate tonight as they've scored only five runs in the series and 62 runs the 21 games vs. the A's (less than 3.0 rpg). Starting for Oakland tonight will be Tanner Roark, who has a 2.63 ERA in his first three starts here since being dealt from Cincinnati (Under is 3-0). The Royals have gone Under in six of their last eight games overall and been held to just one run in half of those games. 

In the last 15 games at Kauffman Stadium, the A's have allowed just 39 total runs. They are 19-5 against the entire AL Central this season, giving up just 73 runs. So again, it seems highly unlikely that they'll allow more than three runs tonight.  So it basically boils down to how Jake Junis does against the A's lineup. Junis did struggle in his last start for the Royals, but had been quite effective prior to that w/ three consecutive quality starts. In fact, six of Junis' previous eight starts had been quality outings w/ the Under going 6-2. 10* Under A's/Royals

10* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): I can't say I'm surprised that the Reds have won the first two games of this series. They swept Miami earlier in the year (at home) and are actually a pretty underrated ballclub. Despite spending the entirety of the year below .500, they've had a positive scoring differential. Note the team directly ahead of them in the NL Central (Milwaukee) actually has a -42 run differential. Run differential basically says the Brewers and Reds should swap records. As for the Marlins, they've been the worst team in the National League all season. Look for the Reds to make it three in a row tonight. 

Something you may not know about the Reds is that they've gotten some of the best pitching in all of baseball this year. They've allowed the 4th fewest runs in the National League and 8th fewest in MLB overall. Miami certainly hasn't been able to solve their pitching this year, scoring just nine runs in five losses. Five of those runs came yday. That makes sense as the Marlins are the lowest scoring team in the NL. This all bodes well for Wednesday starter Anthony DeSclafani, who is off back to back solid showings. He held the Cardinals and Pirates to just two runs in 11 IP. This will be his 1st time facing Miami, his former team, in 2019. 

With the Marlins' offensive woes likely to continue, they'll need a solid effort from Wednesday starter Sandy Alcantara. But that may be hard to come by as the All-Star is winless since the Break and has a 2-8 TSR his L10 starts overall. Now he has been pretty sharp of late, but poor run support has doomed him. He allowed just two runs in seven innings at Colorado on 8.16, but his offense couldn't even score a single run at Coors Field. Then last time out, he allowed just an unearned run, but again the offense failed to come through in a 3-2 loss to Atlanta. I'm afraid it will be more of the same here as the Reds seems to have the Marlins' number. 10* Cincinnati

8* Under Yankees/Mariners (4:10 ET): We all know what the Yankees are capable offensively, but they've also limited Seattle to just four runs the last two days. The Under is now 4-0 in the Yanks' last four games as they go for the sweep Wednesday afternoon. Remember when the Mariners were 13-2? I said "don't buy it" and sure enough they have cratered ever since, going 42-75 overall. It certainly looks like the Yankees are poised to sweep this series seeing as they are 14-2 their L16 games as a road favorite of -175 or more while the Mariners are just 1-7 as a home dog of +175 or more. But I believe that the Under is still the better bet here.

James Paxton will go for the Yanks this afternoon. His last four starts have all gone Over, but that's because of run support not anything he's guilty of. In fact, Paxton has given up just 10 runs total in those four starts and he was incredibly impressive his last time out w/ 11 K's against the Dodgers while allowing only two runs on five hits. Seattle, who was just shutout for the eighth time this season, is hitting .218 as a team over the last week. This is an ideal matchup for the former Mariner, who is very familiar w/ pitching in this park. Overall, Paxton has a 1.05 WHIP in August.

Ironically, Paxton will be opposed here by a pitcher he was traded for this past offseason. Justus Sheffield was one of three prospects Seattle acquired when they sent Paxton to the Bronx. The M's certainly are hoping for a better return than what they got from Sheffield's first start as he allowed three runs in four innings last week vs. Toronto. I know facing the Yankees won't be easy, but look for Sheffield to mitigate the damage, resulting in another low-scoring game between these two teams. 8* Under Yankees/Mariners

10* LA Angels (10:05 ET): The Angels come into this series having dropped five straight as well as six of their last seven games. The weekend saw them get swept in Houston and before that they dropped 3 of 4 to Monday's opponent, Texas. But that series was in Arlington and now it's a chance for revenge as the Halos gets to play host. This change in home field advantage should prove to be a difference maker as the Rangers go from 38-27 at Globe Life Park to just 26-41 on the road. Tonight's starting pitching matchup also looks to be in favor of the home team, so I'm siding w/ them in the series opener. 

Since returning from the DL, Andrew Heaney has been outstanding for the Angels, posting a 3-0 TSR w/ a 2.41 ERA and 0.643 WHIP. The team has actually won each of Heaney's last four starts going back to before his time spent on the DL. Heaney's last start was not only his best of the season (and maybe career?), but also the Angels' lone win in the series at Arlington. He struck out 14 (w/ no walks) over 8 IP and allowed just one run on four hits in a 5-1 victory. Heaney did end up throwing 100+ pitches in the start, so manager Brad Ausmus decided to give him a couple extra days off. He'll be working on six days rest tonight. The Angels are 11-4 in Heaney's L15 starts at home, including 6-1 vs. sub-.500 foes. 

Mike Minor is having a nice season, but ironically his last start (which came against the Angels) was probably his worst of 2019. It was a game that Texas certainly did not deserve to win, but did 8-7. Minor allowed seven of those runs, on 10 hits, and lasted only 5 2/3 innings. His teammates bailed him out by scoring four runs over the final three frames, including a walk-off single in the final at-bat. All three Texas wins in that series came in the final at-bat, two of them in extra innings, so it was not any kind of dominant performance by them. With Heaney on the mound, the Angels get some revenge here. 10* LA Angels

8* Over Twins/White Sox (8:10 ET): I think at this point of the season we need to accept the fact that Minnesota is averaging 6.2 runs per game on the road. That's a really high number (tied w/ the Yankees for 1st in all of MLB) as no team last year averaged more than 5.4 rpg on the road. Overall, the Twins lead all of baseball in the number of runs scored per game this season. That's why they have a top four run differential in the sport right now and have a 3.5 game lead in their division. Even though they'll be facing the White Sox best starter (Lucas Giolito) tonight, I think we'll be seeing another strong effort at the plate from the AL Central leaders. 

Now last Wednesday saw Giolito dominate this Twins lineup in what he called "the best I've ever felt pitching in my life." Giolito allowed just three hits in a CG shutout w/ 12 strikeouts (and no walks). But this will be the fourth time the Twins have faced him in 2019. Look for greater success this time around as the last time they faced Giolito in this park, they scored seven times against him in only 5 IP. Though they did not sweep the Tigers, Twins just scored 21 runs in their last series (three games) and they have scored at least six runs in 6 of the last 10 games. 

Michael Pineda will go here for Minnesota. He was the beneficiary of some tremendous run support in his last outing, which was against Chicago, as the Twins won that game 14-4. Pineda allowed all four runs as he gave up two home runs. His start before that saw the Twins score 13 runs. He won't need that many this time around (though it would be nice!) as he figures to give up a fair share on the road. The Over is 3-0 in Pineda's last three starts and this will also be his fourth start of the season against tonight's opponent. Familiarity may breed contempt, but in this instance it breeds an Over! 8* Over Twins/White Sox

8* Under Rays/Astros (8:10 ET): Houston starter Justin Verlander figures to be in a surly mood tonight after what happened in his last outing. You may have heard that the Astros suffered a historic loss as they closed at -520 on the money line, but fell 2-1. Facing his former team, Verlander went the distance and allowed only two hits, but both were solo home runs. Incredibly, the Astros are 0-3 in Verlander's last three starts despite him posting a 0.762 WHIP. I have no doubt Verlander will pitch well again here in what promises to be another low-scoring game. Take the Under.

Tampa Bay has actually done a slightly better job than Houston at run suppression this year. They've allowed the fewest runs in the American League (Houston #3) and the second fewest overall (Dodgers). That's the primary reason why the Rays enter the day tied w/ Oakland for the final Wild Card spot in the AL. Tuesday's starter Charlie Morton is having a really good year for them w/ a 2.85 ERA and 1.062 WHIP in 26 starts. Though he had only 3 K's his last time out, he totaled 20 in his previous two (13 IP) w/ zero walks. Morton is quite familiar w/ pitching at Minute Maid Park having been a part of the Astros for the previous two seasons. Like Verlander, expect him to pitch well tonight. 

These teams actually opened the season against one another. In a precursor to their season-long "stinginess," all four games in that series went Under. They haven't met since. None of the four game saw more than six total runs scored. Verlander allowed one run and three hits in his start (5-1 Houston win) while Morton allowed two runs on three hits in his (4-2 TB win). Should be a similar type game tonight as the Under is 6-1 in Verlander's last seven starts overall plus 19-7-2 in the Rays' last 28 road games vs. a team w/ a .600 or better win percentage at home. 8* Under Rays/Astros

analysis soon

10* Arizona (9:45 ET): By now, you should know my thinking here. The Giants have earned my disdain this year by overachieving their way to a .500 record. Having the same number of wins as losses may not sound like "overachieving" in the classic sense, but w/ the Giants it is as they've been outscored by 50 runs over the course of the season. Compare that to Arizona, who is a game below .500 (65-66), yet has a run differential of +58 on the year. The big key for the Giants has been their record in one-run games, which is now 30-13 after Sunday's 5-4 win in Oakland. I simply believe Arizona is a much better ballclub and will "go big" on them tonight. 

Now these teams did just meet last weekend in Arizona. The Giants took three of the four games, which was not good for me as I had the D'backs in every game. One might think that Arizona's fortune would be less likely to turn on the road, but you'd actually be wrong as they've fared better away from Chase Field this season. They average 5.4 rpg on the road, up from 4.8 at home. Meanwhile, the Giants happen to score significantly LESS here at home. The drop is nearly a full TWO runs per game! So you can call it "home field disadvantage" in this series, if things play out the way the way the numbers say the should. 

Two struggling starters will take to the hill for Monday's opener. Arizona's Alex Young lost to the Giants in that last series, 7-0, after giving up five runs in five innings. At the time, it was his third consecutive start where the D'backs were shutout. But they won his last time out, 8-7 over Colorado. The Giants' Tyler Beede did not pitch in the last series w/ Arizona, but has an 0-6 TSR his L6 starts, having given up 4+ ER in five of them. He hasn't gone a full six innings in any of the six either. He's also never beaten Arizona. After dropping three in a row, the D'backs did win yday in Milwaukee. They win again here. 10* Arizona

10* Under A's/Royals (8:15 ET): Prior to winning 9-8 yesterday in Cleveland, the Royals were having a heck of a time scoring runs. They'd actually scored just five runs total the previous four games and had been held to two or fewer in 7 of the last 10. I don't think yesterday's "breakthrough" really means anything in the grand scheme of things and thus you should expect them to revert back to their "normal ways" tonight. Given all the lack of scoring discussed above, it shouldn't surprise you to hear that the Under was 9-1 in KC's L10 games previous to yday. Go w/ the Under again in this one. 

Oakland comes in off B2B losses to the Giants over the weekend, a real "sour" follow-up to them sweeping the Yankees in the previous series. The two losses put them one-half game back of Cleveland for the 2nd Wild Card. This will be the A's first time facing Kansas City in 2019 and really it couldn't come at a better time. This weekend, the A's will head to New York to face the revenge-minded Yankees. Thus this is a series they need to win in order to preserve their hopes of making the playoffs a second straight year. 

Before today, there were only two teams Homer Bailey had never faced: the Royals and Reds. He'd spent 12 years with the Reds before signing as a free agent w/ Kansas City prior to this year. Well, he can now cross the Royals off the list as he's set to face his former team. KC traded him to Oakland at the deadline as he wasn't having a particularly good year. His last two starts for the A's have been good as he's allowed just 1 run in 12 IP. Royals starter Brad Keller threw six shutout innings in his last start. 10* Under A's/Royals

8* Under Yankees/Dodgers (7:05 ET): You rarely see the Yankees in this price range, but then again it's even rarer that they have to go up against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers, in LA no less. Still, tonight's ML is somewhat instructive for how the oddsmakers would view a potential World Series matchup between these two fabled franchises. I have too much respect for the team wearing pinstripes to fade them here and at this price (see Saturday), but the total is definitely worth a play after last night's 2-1 game (won by the Dodgers). Take the Under. 

It certainly would not be wise to fade Kershaw in this spot, given his 18-4 team start record, including 12-1 at home. Kershaw has a 2.77 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in those 22 overall starts. In his seven starts since the All-Star Break, Kershaw has never allowed more than 3 ER and has a 1.84 ERA and 0.955 WHIP. In the last seven games, the Yankees have topped four runs only twice. 

Speaking of outstanding team start records, Domingo German of the Yanks is at 17-4, though his numbers aren't nearly as good as Kershaw's. He's allowed 2 HR's in four straight starts and was tagged for six runs overall his last time out. But I have him bouncing back here as he'll be going up against a National League lineup. On the flip side, German will have to bat in this game. Hopefully, the Dodgers do get to the 9th w/ a lead as then we won't have to play the bottom of the inning and that's always a nice luxury when on the Under. 8* Under Yankees/Dodgers

8* Hawaii (10:30 ET): You may recall that we opened last season w/ a play on Hawaii and they richly rewarded us w/ a 43-34 outright upset of Colorado State as two-touchdown underdogs. It may not be that easy this time around, but the Warriors getting double digits out on the island is simply too good to pass up (last year's opener was on the road). One of the many rationales cited for playing Hawaii in LY's season opener was that the opponent (CSU) matched the Warriors' inexperience and was caught laying far too many points, given the situation. Well, this year Hawaii has twice as many returning starters (18) as they did a year ago. Take the points. 

Arizona was very close to making a bowl game last year, but blew a 19-point 4Q lead to rival Arizona State in the regular season finale. That left them at 5-7 SU in HC Kevin Sumlin's first year in Tucson. Sumlin should be cut some slack at QB Khalil Tate was injured most of the year and the team just wasn't the same w/o him and his dual threat ability. I would expect the Wildcats to be better this season, but laying double digits on the road to a team that won a bowl game last year, in the opener no less, seems to be a case of "putting the cart before the horse." 

No one saw Hawaii starting last year at 6-1, probably not even HC Nick Rolovich. But the "Run and Shoot" (offense) is back in Honolulu and the Warriors scored 40+ five times in the first six games despite having just three starters back from 2017. Now they have nine starters back on both sides of the ball. I don't see the Warriors matching LY's 8-win total or even likely winning this game outright, but they are certainly capable of putting a lot of points on the board, so them in the underdog role is attractive here. Hawaii is on an 8-2 ATS run vs. the Pac 12 while Arizona has failed to cover 16 of its previous 21 road games. Take the points. 8* Hawaii

10* Under Hamilton/British Columbia (10:00 ET): Teams at opposite ends of different divisions collide in this Week 11 matchup late Saturday night out in Western Canada. Hamilton is 7-2 SU and 1st in the East while B.C. is 1-8 SU and last in the West. But the Ti-Cats are tenuous favorites here for a couple reasons. One, they're playing on the road and that's where both their losses have come this year (5-0 at home). Also, they're still working through the debilitating season-ending injury to QB Jeremiah Masoli. We played them Under the total last week and that was an easy winner as they got by Ottawa 21-7. We could be in store for a similar final score this week. Take the Under.

Masoli injury or not, things are certainly going a lot better for Hamilton than they are out in British Columbia. The Lions' lone victory came via a last second rouge against a Toronto team that was still winless as three weeks ago. The Leos are giving up a ton of points this year, 34.2 per game to be exact, so trust me when I say they'll be thankful the Ti-Cats are w/o Masoli here. Masoli's replacement, Dane Evans, has actually looked pretty good the L2 games. But in two road games w/ Evans at the helm, the offense has scored just 19 and 21 points. 

Two weeks ago, these teams met out in Hamilton and B.C. covered a double digit spread. I had them and they lost by just a single point, 35-34, w/ Evans completing 21 of 28 passes for 286 yards. But don't expect him to be as prolific the 2nd time around. As for the Lions' offense, well, good luck. They are averaging only 21.7 PPG and shockingly just 15.7 PPG here at home and a frighteningly low 190.3 yards per game. The Hamilton defense is giving up only 20.0 PPG for the year after last week's season best effort against Ottawa. While it was a season best effort, it was also the fifth time this year that the Ti-Cats allowed 17 pts or less. 10* Under Hamilton/B.C.  

10* Oakland (9:05 ET): Fading the Giants has become a regular occurence for me as this is a team that simply isn't as good as its record. While that record is now two games below .500, the Giants have been outscored by 56 runs, which is more indicative of a team that should be 12 games below .500. That difference may not sound like a whole heck of a lot, but it's among the most overachieving records in the sport. What the Giants have been able to do this year is win a lot of one-run games (29) and extra inning games (12), which simply isn't a blueprint for long-term success.

Coming into Saturday, the Giants have dropped four in a row. They were swept by the Cubs earlier in the week and then also lost last Sunday in Arizona, a series in which they had a chance to sweep themselves. In Thursday's loss to the Cubs, they got a dose of their own medicine, losing by 1 run (1-0). This remains a weak offensive ballclub, so I'm not particularly "worried" that Madison Bumgarner is on the hill tonight. Bumgarner has not been all that effective on the road anyway, sportiing a 4.76 ERA and 1.343 WHIP in 12 starts. The Giants are 5-7 in those games.

Oakland just swept the Yankees, which was an impressive and much needed performance. It's a three-team race for the two Wild Card spots in the American League right now and the A's are tied w/ the Indians for the second spot. Getting the start Saturday will be Chris Bassitt, who has a 3.23 ERA at home and a 2.37 ERA his L3 starts overall. He's delivered four quality starts in a row, allowing just five runs in 25 innings of work. The A's are 43-22 at home this year. 10* Oakland

10* Under Saints/Jets (7:30 ET):  Spoiler alert: I'm not as high on the Saints this year as most are. It's been two years of win increases for Drew Brees and company, first from 7 to 11 wins in 2017, then 11 to 13 last year. But both seasons ended w/ bitter playoff defeats and Brees isn't getting any younger. Their opponents for this week, the Jets, are a team that I consider likely to be one of the most improved in the AFC this year, if not in all of the league. QB Sam Darnold looked good down the stretch in his rookie year and the offense added RB Le'Veon Bell. The defense should also be good (despite losing LB Avery Williamson) for 1st year HC Adam Gase. 

But I won't be picking the Jets here, even though it is Gase's first home game on the sidelines. Normally that's a spot where I'd fire, but the Jets didn't show much last week in an ugly 22-10 win over Atlanta. That's a Falcons team that has been horrific in the preseason w/ 11 straight losses dating back to 2017. The Jets couldn't even muster 200 total yds of offense against Atlanta, though Darnold did look good during his time in the game. But the key to the Jets' victory was Atlanta' ineptitude. Three Falcons turnovers were the deciding factor. One was returned for a TD late in the 4Q. The Jets also had two more scoring drives of less than 30 yards in the second half. 

New Orleans is also off a bit of a "misleading" victory as they came back to beat the Chargers 19-17 last week thanks to backup QB Taysom Hill. The Saints were down 17-3 at half and showing little signs of life. HC Sean Payton is one of those coaches that never takes the preseason too seriously. Brees is slated to see his only preseason action this week, but that won't last long. Given that they've already suffered a major injury (Williamson), don't expect Jets' starters to play all that long either. We already know Bell won't play at all in the preseason. Look for this game to stay Under the total. 10* Under Saints/Jets

10* Edmonton (9:00 ET): Early on, it appeared as if Hamilton and Winnipeg were set to "run away" w/ the respective divisions. However, Edmonton has since surged up the pecking order and many (myself included) now consider them the best team in the league. The rash of injuries at QB across the CFL this season is something I've never seen before and the latest team hit was Winnipeg as last week they lost Matt Nichols for (at least) six weeks w/ an upper-body injury. Expect no sympathy from the Eskimos as this is both a revenge game and a chance to pull into a first place tie in the Western Division. The oddsmakers are pretty clear on who they prefer in this one and I'm inclined to agree. Lay the points.

This was going to be a tough game for Winnipeg even w/ Nichols. But playing for the 1st time w/o their starting QB, here of all places, is not ideal. Edmonton is giving up a league-low 18.2 PPG and is also a perfect 4-0 SU at home this season. Getting the start in place of Nichols will be Chris Streveler. He's been used in some short yardage situations this year, but has attempted only nine passes. Steveler did play some last year, but this is a tough ask. The Bombers had already failed to cover three in a row prior to last week's 16-point win over BC. 

As stated above, this is a revenge spot for the home team. Edmonton lost 28-21 at Investors Field back in Week 3 despite a +3 edge in turnovers and 440-273 edge in total yards. It's really pretty amazing that they lost that game. But now that they are getting the Bombers at home, look for the Eskimos to show that they are the team to beat in this league right now. With all the QB's having gone down, Edmonton is in great shape w/ Trevor Harris, who threw for 420 yds last week in a 41-26 win over Toronto. No team is outgaining foes by a wider margin this year than the Eskimos (+173.9 YPG) and it's not even close. Winnipeg is #2 at +36.0 YPG. 10* Edmonton

10* Under Tigers/Twins (8:10 ET): Detroit is the lowest scoring team in all of baseball and has not scored more than four runs in any of its last nine games. They've scored a total of 23 runs in those nine games. They've actually won three times in that nine-game stretch, including a historic upset on Wednesday when they beat Houston as +435 underdogs. They're not nearly as big an underdog on the money line tonight against another division leader, the Twins. Minnesota is one of baseball's highest scoring teams, but they were actually shut out in their last game. Take the Under here. 

Jose Berrios has had a couple of rough showings in his L3 outings, but still has a 3.37 ERA and 1.18 WHIP on the year. Despite there being nine previous Tigers-Twins meetings this season, Berios has only pitched in one of them and it was all the way back in April. He allowed just two runs on four hits in 6 2/3 IP.

The Twins chances of bouncing back tonight are strong seeing as they're 9-1 off their previous 10 shutout losses. However, they were held to only three hits by the White Sox Lucas Giolito Wednesday, including just a pair of singles going into the eighth inning. Drew Verhagen has a 3.72 ERA in 12 carer appearances vs. Minnesota, most of them in relief. This will be his 4th start of the year. Last one, he allowed one run in five innings. 10* Under Tigers/Twins

8* Green Bay (8:00 ET): The Raiders are 2-0 in the preseason, but don't look for that to carryover into the regular season. Making more headlines right now in Oakland is Antonio Brown's act, which is rapidly wearing thin. With or without Brown, the Raiders are probably destined to finish last this year in the AFC West. For the first time this preseason, expect them to taste defeat as they face the Packers at Investors Group Field in Winnipeg, Manitoba (home of the CFL's Blue Bombers) Thursday. The Packers will be motivated here coming off a 26-13 loss to Baltimore last week. Lay the points. 

While they lost last week, Green Bay's 1st preseason game was a success as they won for 1st year HC Matt LaFleur in his Lambeau debut, beating the Houston Texans 28-26 as one-point favorites. The Pack actually led that game 28-10 going into the 4th quarter. Less should be made of last week's loss as, for whatever reason, Baltimore always tries very hard to win these preseason games. Last week marked the Ravens' 11th consecutive preseason win. The Raiders don't have that same kind of attitude and it's already been a challenging week dealing with Brown. 

For Green Bay, this will be the first of two consecutive games where they'll be playing a team they meet again in the regular season. Raiders HC Jon Gruden has been notorious with his disdain for that situation and thus I'm not convinced the Silver and Black will treat this "dress rehearsal" game w/ the same sense of urgency that you'd normally see. The word out of Raiders' camp is that health is the primary concern right now as several players are injured.  Meanwhile, for the Pack, Aaron Rodgers may very well see the field for the first time. LaFleur has previously said he wants to get Rodgers some game experience before the regular season starts. Regardless if Rodgers plays or not, expect the Packers to win easily. 8* Green Bay

10* Cincinnati (7:00 ET): Based on the first two preseason games, concerns over the Giants' 2019 fortunes may be all for naught. Of course, we know better and wouldn't want to make any premature claims based on two exhibitions. That said, you probably should expect the G-Men to improve upon LY's 4-win total. Rookie QB Daniel Jones will at some point replace two-time Super Bowl winner Eli Manning. But we're months from that now. The Giants did beat the Jets 31-22 and the Bears 32-13 the L2 weeks, but both games were at home. Let's see how they play on the road, in front of a crowd eager to see what it's new head coach has in store. Lay the points. 

Marvin Lewis was finally run out of Cincinnati after 16 seasons. Those 16 seasons may have brought more highlights to Bengals' fans than the 16 that preceded Lewis' tenure, but ultimately they brought no playoff wins. You shouldn't expect any playoff wins this year under 1st year HC Zac Taylor either. But Thursday should certainly bring a motivated effort as it's the team's first time playing in Cincinnati under Taylor. The Bengals opened the preseason by splitting a couple road games. They lost 38-17 at Kansas City, but were a lot better last week in a 23-13 win in Washington. Not only did the defense obviously play better, but the offense turned it over three fewer times as well, which always helps. 

In the past, I've constantly harped on the motivational edge a home team enjoys in the preseason when playing for a new coach. We saw it w/ our 10* Game of the Week in Week 1 (Arizona) and last week Tampa Bay may not have covered, but they did come back and win for Bruce Arians. Expect the same out of the Bengals for Taylor. Backup QB Ryan Finley has looked good so far in the preseason. The rookie out of Boise State has completed 33 of his 44 pass attempts for 259 yards and three touchdowns. With this being the third game, Andy Dalton and the starters will see the field more. The same holds true for the Giants, but it likely comes down to the fact that the Bengals' backups will be more motivated than their Giants' counterparts. 10* Cincinnati

7* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Finally, the Giants got a "taste of their own medicine," losing a one-run game last night and a wild one at that. Early on, it appeared as if the Cubs were coasting to a second straight victory as they were up 6-2 after three innings. But as they are known to do, the Giants stormed back and eventually look the lead in the sixth and again in the seventh. But Kris Bryant's two-run shot in the bottom of the eighth put the Cubs ahead for good, 12-11. Now, with a quick turnaround, look for the Cubs to finish off the sweep Thursday afternoon. 

If you wonder what my "fuss" is about w/ the Giants, you must not be a regular reader. Even though they're now a game below .500, this is a club that has totally overachieved this year as they've been outscored by 55 runs. The key for them has been an extremely fortunate 29-12 record in one-run games and a 12-2 mark in extra innings (obviously some overlap there). The Giants' second half has been especially ridiculous as they're 8-0 in extra inning games. That's simply not a sustainable blueprint from where I sit as a team's record in close game "should be" a lot closer to .500. 

It's been well-established that the Cubs are a far better team at Wrigley Field than they are on the road. Their home record is 43-19 w/ a scoring differential of +1.2 rpg. One pitcher who always tends to do well at the Friendly Confines is tonight's starter Kyle Hendricks, who has a 1.98 ERA and 0.849 WHIP here in 10 starts this season. Hendricks has given up 2 ER or fewer in eight of his past nine starts overall. I know that Jeff Samardzija has pitched well for the Giants lately, but my overall disdain for the team trumps that. Also, in three career starts vs. his former team, Samardzija is winless w/ a 6.35 ERA. 7* Chi Cubs

10* Under Brewers/Cardinals (7:45 ET): It would seem as if Milwaukee forgot to bring their bats for this series. Not that they've had much success at Busch Stadium anyway. Yesterday was their fifth consecutive loss here, dating back to a sweep in April. The Brew Crew couldn't even manage a hit until the eighth inning in Monday's 3-0 loss. They actually scored four runs last night, but it was not nearly enough as they gave up nine. Quietly, the Cardinals have allowed the second fewest runs in the entire National League (trailing only the Dodgers). They'll keep the Brewers in check again tonight. Look for the Cards to not score that many either. Take the Under here. 

Almost every starter on the St. Louis staff performs better at home than on the road. Wednesday starter Adam Wainwright is very representative of this. He has a 2.19 ERA at home as opposed to 6.87 on the road. Also, the Under is 8-2 in his 10 home starts. His last three have seen him give up only 2 ER in 18 IP. Note that the St. Louis' pitching staff has given up more than four runs in a game only twice in the L11 games. Three of those, including Monday, were shutouts. Wainwright's only start against the Brewers this year was here at home and he allowed just one run in six innings. 

Don't blame the starters for last night's game going Over. The game was 1-0 after five innings. Once again, I expect a strong effort out of not only St. Louis' starter (Wainwright), but also Milwaukee's. Adrian Houser has given up only 1 ER in three of his previous four starts. His last one saw him go seven innings and allow just two hits to a Washington team that's since hit the cover off the ball. The Brewers still ended up losing, 2-1. It was the sixth straight Houser start where the team scored two runs or fewer. I can certainly see that happening again here. The Under is 35-16-4 in the Cardinals' last 55 games. 10* Under Brewers/Cardinals

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): Turns out that the Indians were drastically mispriced for last night's game. I found that out the hard way as they lost 9-2 to the Mets. Interestingly, there's a pretty significant price change for tonight's game. That's not just because of Tuesday's result either. The pitching matchup is slanted in the Mets' favor here w/ Marcus Stroman going against Adam Plutko. While I poked holes in the Mets' recent run (now 19-5 L24 games), the same can be said for a Cleveland team that has cleaned up against the Tigers & Royals (20-3 head to head!) while having a rather pedestrian record against everyone else the L2 months.

The Mets are very much alive in the NL Wild Card hunt. They're two games back of whomever doesn't end up winning the NL Central - the Cubs or Cardinals. Acquring Stroman at the trade deadline was a clear sign the team is "going for it" and thus far the deal has proven fruitful. The Mets have won all three games he's started for them. While Stroman's numbers haven't been that great as a Met, he does have a 3.21 ERA overall (24 starts). Ironically, his final start as a member of the Blue Jays came against the Indians. He went seven innings and allowed just one run on five hits in a hard-luck loss.

This time around, Stroman will be backed by a better offense. Tuesday was the third time in the last five games that the Mets scored at least nine runs. While they clearly benefited from an ill-time Indians' error last night, they'll gladly take it. Plutko was the beneficiary of some serious run support in his last start as the Indians won 19-5 at Yankee Stadium. But he'll be lucky to get that much support his next three starts combined. Plutko still has a 4.56 ERA and 1.41 WHIP on the road. With last night's win, the Mets are now 13-5 in Interleague Play this year. 8* NY Mets

8* Under Angels/Rangers (7:05 ET): These AL West rivals split a doubleheader on Tuesday with the second game (won by Texas) going 11 innings. So there's probably "not much left in the tank" for the position players, not to mention the respective bullpens either. A poor second half is what essentially took Texas out of the running as far as making the playoffs go, but tonight they have a chance to win just their second series out of the last 15 tries (they won Monday's game). They'll send All-Star Mike Minor to the bump, which should ensure the Angels don't score much, but I have my concerns about the Rangers' offense here as well. Take the Under. 

Minor has gone 11-7 in his 25 starts this season (13-12 TSR), but probably deserves a better record in light of a 2.94 ERA. He wasn't at his best against Minnesota last Friday, but the Twins happen to be one of the highest scoring teams in all of MLB. Note that in the two starts prior, Minor didn't allow a single run in 15 IP, shutting out both Cleveland and Milwaukee. Overall, Minor is 3-0 w/ a 2.70 ERA in eight career appearances vs. the Angels, six of those being starts. The Under is 18-7 in all Minor starts this year, including 5-1 in the L6 and 3-0 the L3. 

Both games in yday's doubleheader also went Under w/ the Angels winning the day game 5-1 and the Rangers taking the nightcap 3-2. While the Rangers got off to a hot start to the season and faded, the Angels continue to be perpetually mediocre. In many ways, splitting a doubleheader is a metaphor for how this franchise has played the last several seasons. Patrick Sandoval will make his third start tonight for the Halos, looking for better results than what he's experienced thus far. In 9 IP, he's allowed 7 runs. But with the Under 23-10 the L33 head-to-head meetings between the Angels and Rangers, look for the scoring to again be minimal. 8* Under Angels/Rangers

6* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): Let's continue to fade the Giants, who have been one of baseball's biggest overachievers this season. Obviously, I'm still a little bitter over them ruining my 10* Game of the Year on Arizona Friday. They took three of four overall in that series, but lost Sunday 7-1 (I faded them in all four games). Despite their 63-62 record this season, the Giants have been outscored by 52 runs. They've experienced some ridiculously good fortune by going 29-11 in one-run games and 12-2 in extra innings. We've been through all this many times before, so it should be nothing new to my regular followers.

The Cubs finally return home after a tough 4-6 road trip. One of the wins (Sunday night) actually came at a neutral setting as they beat the Pirates 7-1 in Williamsport, part of the League League World Series celebration. But at Wrigley, this is a completely different team. The Cubs' record at the Friendly Confines is 41-19 (as opposed to 25-39 on the road). The only teams w/ better win percentages at home are the Dodgers, Astros and Yankees. The previous homestand saw them take five of six from the Brewers and A's, two teams that are both better than the Giants. The Cubs absolutely deserve to be priced this high on the money line for Tuesday. 

Cole Hamels hasn't factored into too many decisions here at Wrigley (just 2-0!), but he has a 7-2 TSR, 2.35 ERA and 1.081 WHIP. His last two starts were poor, but both also on the road. The last time Hamels started at home, he tossed five shutout innings against Milwaukee. For the season, the Cubs are allowing just 3.8 rpg at home, third fewest in MLB. Hamels is being opposed here by Tyler Beede, who has allowed at least four runs in each of his last five starts. The Giants have lost all five times as Beede has given up 8 home runs in 23 1/3 IP. His ERA and WHIP in the last three starts are 9.94 and 1.894 respectively. This is a total mismatch. 6* Chi Cubs 

10* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians have really gathered "steam" over the last two months, going an incredible 45-21 the L66 games. Not only are they out in front in the AL Wild Card race, they are also now just two games back in the AL Central after the Twins lost to the White Sox last night. While the Tribe could only split four games w/ the Yankees over the weekend, they'll gladly take it given the opponent and that it was on the road. They get to stay in the Big Apple for three more days, shifting to Queens, as it's time for an Interleague series w/ the equally hot Mets. I like Cleveland a lot more here, especially tonight w/ Shane Bieber on the mound. 

The Mets have come back from the dead to win 18 of their last 23 games. The NL Wild Card is very wide open and the Mets are very much alive in it (just two games back). While Cleveland's schedule hasn't exactly been daunting over the last month or so, the same can said for the Mets. They split six games against the Braves and Nationals while going 15-2 against the the Royals, Marlins, Pirates and White Sox. All four of those teams have been outscored by at least 110 runs this season. This series is the start of six in a row against .500 or better opponents for the Mets. Let's see how they do before making any offical proclamations that "they're back." 

Bieber has been outstanding for the Indians this year. He has a 17-8 TSR, 3.26 ERA and 0.998 WHIP. He also leads the American League in complete games w/ three. Two of those have come in his L5 starts. He's also top five in strikeouts. Facing an NL lineup should prove easy for Bieber. He'll be opposed by Steven Matz, who has not suffered a defeat here at Citi Field all season (7-2 TSR). But overall Matz simply has not been as good as Bieber this season. Two of the Mets' five losses over the last 23 games have come w/ Matz on the mound. Cleveland is a very good road team (35-25 record) and the Mets are a money-burning 7-25 as ML home underdogs of +125 to +175 the L3 seasons. 10* Cleveland

10* Under Nationals/Pirates (7:05 ET): Playing this matchup Under the total certainly did not work out well yesterday as Washington's red hot offense jumped all over Pittsburgh starter Trevor Williams and scored eight runs in the first two innings. From there, it was "all over but the shouting." The Nats would go onto win 13-0, the third straight game they've scored at least 13 runs! They've scored 13+ in four of the last five games as well, but facing a Pirates team that has managed to score only four runs in its last four games (shutout twice), I still have faith in the Under in this matchup. Take it Tuesday! 

As hot as this Nationals lineup may be right now, don't look for them to jump on Chris Archer the way they did Williams last night. Archer hasn't had much success of late (0-7 TSR L7 starts!), but his individual numbers remain respectable. He's got 19 strikeouts in his past two starts and a 3.18 ERA in the last three. The biggest problem he faces here is his own offense, which is barely scoring at all of late. In fact, had the Pirates not scored a meaningless run in the bottom of the ninth Sunday (lost 7-1 to the Cubs), they would be coming into tonight having been shutout in three consecutive games! They have just 26 hits in the last 45 innings.

The Pirates' overall ineptitude should make it easy for Stephen Strasburg to get back on track tonight. Strasburg had an ugly showing in Arizona that got August off on the wrong foot, but has been better in two subsequent starts. He's 8-1 his L10 starts (8-2 TSR) and will be going for his 16th win of the season, which would be a new career-high. Strasburg's 1st career start came vs. the Pirates and he's 6-2 w/ a 2.40 ERA in nine all-time starts against them. All of a sudden, Washington's bullpen now looks a lot better too as it delivered 6+ scoreless innings last night. The Pirates are 7-28 since the All-Star Break and won't provide much competition in what promises to be a lower-scoring game compared to yday. 10* Under Nationals/Pirates

8* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): The Reds are another of those clubs where the won-loss record is really NOT an accurate portrayal. For virtually all of this season, they've sported a positive run differential. Yet they've never quite been able to get to .500. Coming off a split w/ St. Louis over the weekend here at Great American Ballpark, the Reds are seven games below .500, but have still have outscored the opposition by 22 runs this season, a similar differential to that of the 1st place Cardinals (+28). Pitching has been key for the Reds as they've given up the third fewest runs in the National League. The starting rotation (theoretically) got even stronger at the trade deadline w/ the acquisition of Trevor Bauer, who gets the starting nod for Monday. Take the Reds tonight.

San Diego foolishly had playoff aspirations coming into this season. That was due to the acquisition of Manny Machado in the offseason. But that's just one player and he's not even living up to the large contract doled out to him. The Padres' best hitter has been Fernando Tatis Jr, a rookie that's out of the lineup right now. The Padres were able to start this road trip by taking two out of three in Philadelphia over the weekend, but I like their chances for success a lot less here. Eric Lauer gets the start Monday and has a 6.20 ERA/1.453 WHIP in 11 road starts. 

Bauer was rocked his last time out, giving up nine runs in 17-7 loss to Washington. He's been "up and down" all year, so I really like the idea of "buying low" on Bauer here as you know he'll be a lot better tonight. Probably something similar to what we saw in his home debut on 8.9 vs. the Cubs where he allowed just one run in seven innings. He also had 11 strikeouts in that game. The Reds took three of four from the Padres out in San Diego back in April. They are a stronger team at home and should get this series started on a winning note. 8* Cincinnati

8* Under Nationals/Brewers (7:05 ET): Washington just scored a lot of runs over the weekend, 30 to be exact in the last two games. The fact that they split those two games should also tell you they gave up their fair share as well. But there's no denying this lineup is "humming" right now as they have scored 14 or more runs in three of the last four games. Now they're matched up w/ a Pirates team that has been going Over in most of its games all season. The Bucs' O/U record currently stands at 69-48-6, which is the third highest Over percentage in the sport. But they've been held to just one run over the past two games. I'm calling for this one to stay Under. 

Pittsburgh was very nearly shutout (by the Cubs) in both games over the weekend. They didn't score last night until the bottom of the ninth, when the game was well out of reach. In that entire series, they scored just four runs.  It's been a dramatic slide for the Pirates, not that we didn't see it coming, as they're now just 7-27 since the All-Star Break. In seven of the last 11 games, they've been held to three runs or less. On a more positive note, Monday starter Trevor Williams did hold Washington to just two runs on four hits (6 1/3 IP) back in April. He has a 3.06 ERA in four career appearances against the Nats. The Under is 12-4-1 in Williams' L17 home starts vs. a .500 or better opponent. 

Washington has gotten hot despite the absence of Max Scherzer from the starting rotation. Tonight's starter Joe Ross deserves a lot of the credit for that as he's been lights out his L3 starts w/ a 0.50 ERA and 3-0 record. Ross has allowed just one run in 18 IP during that stretch. Going back to the end of last season, the last seven times Ross has started, the Under is 7-0. He has a 2.81 ERA in three career starts vs. Pittsburgh. The Under is 14-5 in the Nats' L19 road games and 20-7 L27 if they scored 5+ runs the previous game. It's also 6-1 the L7 meetings w/ the Pirates. 8* Under Nationals/Brewers

8* Seattle (8:00 ET): The Seahawks "suffered" through an 0-4 preseason last year, but were more successful in this year's opener, beating Denver 22-14. What's impressive about that is the Broncos already had a game under their belt, having played the Hall of Fame Game in Canton. Curiously, Seattle closed as a slight home dog for LW's contest. But despite resting most starters (including QB Wilson) they had no problem winning outright as it was 22-6 early in the fourth quarter. One of the more refreshing takeaways from that contest was the play of backup QB Paxton Lynch, who threw 109 yards and scored two touchdowns.

Seattle was a playoff team last year. But they were one and done at the hands of Dallas. Minnesota is two years removed from an appearance in the NFC Championship Game, but failed to make the playoffs a season ago, slipping to 8-7-1. They too were a winner in their first preseason game, beating New Orleans 34-25. They put up 460 total yards in that effort, including 217 on the ground. That's pretty impressive. Then again, the Saints have a reputation for not treating the preseason with much urgency. Seattle also ran the ball well last week (151 yards), for the record. 

The Vikings defense did give up its fair share of points last week, but also scored a touchdown early in the second half, which is what broke the game open. On offense, QB Kirk Cousins led an eight-play, 73-yard drive in his lone series last week. He and the Vikings' first-teamers played into the 2nd quarter in LY's 2nd preseason game and that's expected again here. For Seattle, Russell Wilson sat out the preseason opener, but is also expected to go at least a quarter here. I like the points here as the Seahawks' backups looked good last week. 8* Seattle 

8* Run Line Arizona (4:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the D'backs at +1.5. We won w/ the RL yday in a game fueled by revenge (Braves over Dodgers), but this one goes even further than that. While I concede this series has been a gross misread on my part (I've had Arizona in every game), I still believe what the numbers say and that's the D'backs are the far superior team. Taking the run line today "protects us" from what the Giants do best and that's win one-run games. They are a MLB-best 29-11 in that scenario and don't forget about their 12-2 record in extra innings either. The home team does no worse than a one-run loss today.

Just as I said in the Texas writeup, a home team getting swept in a four-game series is pretty rare. What makes this series all the more frustrating from the D'backs perspective is the numbers I alluded to earlier. Though San Francisco is 63-61 and Arizona is 61-63, the Giants have actually been outscored this season (by 47 runs!) while the D'backs have a YTD run differential of +61. Consider that the D'backs run differential is actually third best in the entire National League! The Giants is 4th worst w/ only the three last place teams worse. Run differential suggests Arizona has been about 11 games better than SF this year, not the two games worse that they are in actuality.

Taking the +1.5 wasn't an option in any of the first three games of this series, but it is here due to the Giants having Madison Bumgarner. But I'm playing the teams, not the starters here. Starting pitching is obviously important, but it isn't the "end all, be all" that it used to be in MLB betting. That said, it is "refreshing" to see that MadBum has a 4.64 ERA and 1.344 WHIP on the road to go along with a losing (5-6) team start record. I know that Merrill Kelly has struggled for Arizona, but with the numbers (specifically a +1.5) on his side, the D'backs get the cash here. 8* Run Line Arizona (+1.5)

8* Houston (4:07 ET): This game, like the two others in this package, finds a team (Houston) looking to avoid a sweep. But what makes it a little different is a) it's the road team and b) it's the Astros. Houston certainly isn't accustomed to these kind of results. In fact, they had gone 9-2 vs. the A's this year before this particular series got underway. Overall, the Astros have lost five straight and six of the last seven, which is highly irregular for them. It's their worst stretch of the season besides a seven-game slide back in mid-June. They bounce back and avoid the sweep today, thanks to who's on the mound. 

The Astros have lost as big favorites numerous times during this 1-6 slide. The slide began last Sunday w/ an infamous loss as -550 ML favorites to Baltimore, which came one day after they beat the Orioles 23-2! But today they've got an "ace in the hole" in the form of Zack Greinke, who has now made two starts since coming over from Arizona. He gave up five runs in the first run (though three of them were unearned), then returned to usual form on Tuesday by holding the White Sox to just two runs over six innings. That's Houston's only win over the last week. But it's situations like this why they went out and got Greinke. Look for him to deliver. 

Though he just came over from the National League, Greinke has had success in the past facing Oakland. He's 6-2 w/ a 3.11 ERA in 16 appearances against them. Meanwhile, A's starter Brett Anderson has had no such luck with the Astros as he's 1-4 w/ a 6.58 ERA in six career outings against them. The first two games of this series were both decided by one run, one of them going 13 innings, so it's not like Oakland is dominating. This afternoon, it will be Greinke doing the dominating as he usually does in the Bay Area (9-1 when pitching in either Oakland or SF). 8* Houston

8* Texas (3:05 ET): The Twins are looking to sweep Sunday and have certainly "brought the lumber" so far in this series as they've scored 29 runs in the first three games, twice scoring 12 or more. But today they run into Lance Lynn. He has a 1.42 ERA his L3 starts and has allowed exactly 1 ER in each of his last four. Despite this, his TSR during that time is only 2-2. That seems unfair and I think it's also notable that w/ Lynn on the mound here, the Rangers are favorites for the first time in this series. Now three games below .500 on the year, Texas is at its lowest point in the standings in three months. It's a good "buy low" situation. 

Spoiler alert: every team I'm taking in this three-game report is looking to avoid a sweep Sunday. In the Rangers' case they look to avoid the embarrassment of being swept in a four-game series at home, which doesn't happen all that often. Coming into this series, Texas was 35-22 at home this year. Lynn is 9-1 in his 12 starts here in Arlington (10-2 TSR) and the last one saw him allow just one run and four hits in seven innings. . Not only has Lynn allowed exactly 1 ER in each of his L4 starts, he's given up 3 ER or less in 19 of his 25 this season! So I've got him as the clear "difference-maker" Sunday. 

Minnesota is averaging 6.2 rpg on the road this season, which is very impressive. I know we're halfway through August, which means it's a large enough sample size, but maintaining that scoring average these next two months could prove difficult. Yesterday, it was a six-run 1st inning that opened the flood gates for the Twins. But all six runs were unearned as they came after a throwing error on what looked to be an inning-ending double play. Martin Perez has a 5.82 ERA and 1.765 WHIP his L3 starts and while he may very well pitch better today than what those numbers indicate, he can't match Lynn. 8* Texas

10* Under Twins/Rangers (3:05 ET): The Twins are looking to sweep Sunday and have certainly "brought the lumber" so far in this series as they've scored 29 runs in the first three games, twice scoring 12 or more. But today they run into Lance Lynn. He not only has a 1.42 ERA his L3 starts, but all three have stayed Under as well. In fact, the Under is now 17-8 in all Lynn starts this season. Being that we're halfway through August, the fact that the Twins are still averaging 6.2 runs per game on the road is legit. But I still believe its going to be difficult to maintain that number the last two months of the season. Take the Under. 

Today marks the 1st time in the series that Texas is favored to win. They were significant ML underdogs in the two blowout losses. But Lynn looks to be a difference maker for the finale as the Rangers look to avoid the embarrassment of being swept in a four-game series at home, which doesn't happen all that often. Coming into this series, Texas was 35-22 at home this year. Lynn is 9-1 in his 12 starts here in Arlington (10-2 TSR) and the last one saw him allow just one run and four hits in seven innings. Not only has Lynn allowed exactly 1 ER in each of his L4 starts, he's given up 3 ER or less in 19 of his 25 this season. 

A six-run 1st inning is what doomed Texas yesterday (all six unearned). That won't be happening again w/ Lynn on the mound, however. Ironically, Lynn pitched for Minnesota last season and wasn't all that effective. Both of today's starters will be facing former teams as Martin Perez pitches for the first time as an opponent at Globe Life Park. Like Lynn, Perez has pitched a lot better for his new team than for his old one. His last time out, Perez allowed only one unearned run in six innings at Milwaukee. The Rangers are averaging only 4.0 rpg their last seven contests. 10* Under Twins/Rangers

10* Dallas (10:00 ET): Two teams that have proven to care little about the preseason meet Saturday night in Hawaii. Given the line movement for this Saturday night matchup, it speaks volumes about the Rams' perceived lack of effort. Of course, the Cowboys have now lost five straight in the preseason after last week's 17-9 setback to the 49ers. We played against Dallas there, but will back them and the line move in this one. The Rams only scoring three points against the Raiders last week was an ominous sign as to what we should expect from them the next three weeks. Lay the points. 

The Rams were outgained 407-190 in last week's loss in Oakland, a game in which virtually no key player saw the field. Some starters aren't even making this trip. Blake Bortles will again start at QB. He, John Wolford and Brandon Allen combined to go 15 of 28 for 133 yards last week. There was no semblance of a running game either as the offense averaged just 2.6 yards per carry. The Rams' lack of effort in the preseason is not new. In the four games last season, they scored just 49 points. So that's now a total of 52 points in the last five. That's a big reason why we took the Under in last week's game in Oakland.

Now Dallas obviously needs to show a pulse here and I think they will. They did lead last week's game 9-7 entering the fourth quarter. That kind of defensive effort bodes well considering the skeleton crew they are likely to face here. Seeing as Dak Prescott saw the field last week, he will again this week. Four times last week, the Cowboys made into the red zone, only to come away empty-handed. So it was a better performance offensively than you might think. Every Rams starter sat last week and most will again here. 10* Dallas

6* Cory Sandhagen (9:00 ET): This fight takes place at bantamweight (135 lbs) and is scheduled for three rounds. You can watch for free as part of the prelims on ESPN. Honestly, I'm shocked that Rafael Assuncao is still around as his best days are clearly behind him. I'm apparently not alone in the sentiment as his opponent, Cory Sandhagen, has seen a huge odds move in his favor for this fight. Sanhagen seemingly has all the "momentum" (still hate that word!) coming into this one as he's 4-0 in UFC while Assuncao is off a loss to Marlon Moraes back in February. Sandhagen should win easily. 

Sandhagen is 11-1 overall and like I just said, 4-0 since joining the UFC. He's shown clear improvement from fight to fight with a win over John Lineker, ironically a split decision, arguably being the most impressive. In that fight, Sandhagen remained aggressive, but was not as reckless as some perceived he was in previous bouts. He is a big bantamweight, which works to his advantage. That aggressiveness should also work to his advantage here against the often passive Assuncao. 

Assuncao lost by submission in the first round of his last fight. It was his first time being stopped since 2011 and a clear sign that his best days are behind him. Now in the previous seven years, he'd lost only one time (to TJ Dillashaw), but virtually every win was by decision and three of those were split. I think Sadhagen dictates the style and pace of this fight and likely finishes Assuncao all is said and done. 6* Cory Sandhagen

10* Arizona (8:10 ET): Perhaps it was apropos for San Francisco to pass Arizona in the standings w/ a 10-9 win last night in extra innings. After all, that's how the Giants have been winning most of this year, particularly in the second half. But for me, last night's result was not a pleasant one as the D'backs happened to be my Game of the Year. Twice they rallied, including from five runs down in the bottom of the eighth, but it was not to be. I still maintain that Arizona is the far superior team though and will back them again Saturday. No matter what has happened the L2 days, numbers don't lie and all the numbers suggest the D'backs are having the superior season. 

 Let's start w/ run differential. Though San Francisco is 62-61 and Arizona is 61-62, the Giants have actually been outscored this season (by 52 runs) while the D'backs have a YTD run differential of +66. Consider that the D'backs run differential is actually the second best in the entire National League. The Giants is 4th worst (only the three last place teams worse). In terms of actual vs. expected wins, Arizona has drastically underachieved this season (by 7 games) while SF has overachieved (by 6 games). Run differential suggests Arizona has been about 12 games better than SF, not the one game worse that they are in actuality. 

The key for the Giants this year has been extraordinarily good fortune. They are 29-11 in one-run games and 12-2 in extra innings. Both are easily MLB's best records in those situations. Obviously, there is some overlap between the two records. In the second half alone, the Giants are 8-0 in extra innings and they have 11 one-run victories. It is because of all these numbers that I am sticking w/ the D'backs in this series as the fact both teams are starting Triple-A callups on Saturday has virtually no bearing on my opinion. 10* Arizona 

8* Run Line Atlanta (7:20 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Braves at +1.5. You might be surprised to see the home team as the underdog in this battle of division leaders, but the reputation of Hyun-Jin Ryu and the Dodgers needs little in the way of introduction. Plus, the Braves are now 0-4 vs. the Dodgers here in 2019. But while Ryu has been other-worldly at Chavez Ravine this season (11-0 TSR, 0.81 ERA, 0.798 WHIP), he's been downright "mortal" on the road by comparison. The Dodgers are also just 6-5 in Ryu's 11 road starts. Atlanta does no worse than a one-run loss tonight and I give them a great shot at pulling the upset. 

Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz returned to the rotation earlier this month and has led his team to a pair of wins, even though he's not exactly been dominant himself. Going back to June though, Atlanta is a perfect 5-0 in Foltynewicz's last five starts. It should be noted Atlanta did lead 3-1 early last night before failing to score again after the second inning. But they still led 3-2 going into the eighth, which is when LA seized control of the game. A three-run HR drastically altered the trajectory of the game and the Braves could not recover as it was too little, too late. 

The Braves have had their issues w/ Ryu in the past, just like every other team has this year. But the lone meeting of 2019 was at Dodger Stadium. Yes, I have a ton of respect for what Ryu and the Dodgers have accomplished individually and collectively, but I believe in the revenge angle here and Ryu simply hasn't been as dominant on the road. This is a great price on the Braves at home where they are 34-27 on the year and almost never an underdog. 8* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5) 

10* Under Hamilton/Ottawa (4:05 ET): The Ti-Cats are 0-2 ATS in the two games since losing QB Jeremiah Masoli to a season-ending injury. Said injury completely changed the complexion of the East Division even though the Ti-Cats continue to enjoy a comfortable edge. They did manage to win last week, rallying back to down B.C. 35-34, a game in which they never came close to covering. That was fine by me as I faded them. This week, it's a trip to the Nation's Capital to take on reigning Grey Cup Champion Ottawa, who has its own set of problems right now. Take the Under. 

The Redblacks are 3-5 SU and three games back of Hamilton in the East. However, they have now covered three in a row, all coming as underdogs. With the exception of a 30-27 upset over Montreal on August 2nd, Ottawa has not scored 20 points in a game since the start of July. That's five times failing to do so, which is really bad in this league, where scoring has generally been up. The Redblacks are second last in points per game, only ahead of 1-7 Toronto. Last week was a tough loss as they went down 16-12 at Edmonton. That was the first time in four weeks that they broke 250 total yards.

Both quarterbacks are off better than expected efforts, but I would not go thinking that Ottawa's Dominique Davis is going to complete 65% of his pass attempts for 289 yards again like he did last week. Nor do I believe Masoli's replacement (Dane Evans) is going to repeat last week's performance either, even w/ Brandon Banks back in the Hamilton lineup. This is actually the 1st meeting of the year between these two division provincial rivals. The Under is 13-6 in Ottawa's last 19 division games. Hamilton just isn't the same offensively w/o Masoli and Ottawa hasn't been going on that side of the ball since Week 2. 10* Under Hamilton/Ottawa

8* NY Yankees (1:05 ET): The Yankees evened this series up at a game apiece w/ a 3-2 win Friday. Though they got two of their runs in the first inning, the Yanks outhit the Indians 10-4 for the game. This on the heels of being crushed 19-5 Thursday, which doubled as Cleveland's best win and the Yankees worst loss of 2019 (in terms of margin). Despite what happened there, New York remains a very strong home team and has now produced 27 consecutive winning seasons. That's the 2nd longest streak in MLB history, behind only the 39 straight they delivered from 1929 to '64. This year's edition is doing quite fine as they've won 15 of their last 18 and now are +152 in run differential for the year. 

Cleveland has been on quite the run in its own right as they've gotten back into the AL Central race by going 45-21 since June 1st. They also happen to lead the Wild Card. But let's be sure to point out how the Tribe has really taken advantage of a boatload of games against the Royals and Tigers. They're a combined 20-3 against those two teams, meaning they're still just 25-18 against "everyone else" the L2+ months. Thursday's offensive explosion (season-best 24 hits) looks to be an aberration considering they were held to only four last night

James Paxton hopes to get the Indians offense from last night as opposed to Thursday. He's certainly capable of keeping the Tribe in check considering he's 3-0 in his L3 starts w/ a 2.89 ERA and 0.964 WHIP. It's a nice turnaround from what most Yankees fans would consider a disappointing season. Now Cleveland's Zach Plesac has a 7-0 team start record his L7 starts, but his ERA and WHIP during that time aren't exactly indicative of a dominant pitcher. Plesac's WHIP over his L3 starts is 1.562, which isn't good at all. His last start was won on a walkoff HR by Carlos Santana. 8* NY Yankees

10* Arizona (9:40 ET): The Giants came into Arizona Thursday and shut the D'backs out 7-0. That shocked me. As I said in yday's analysis, this is a matchup I've been waiting for some time now. It pits one of MLB's most underrated teams (Arizona) against one of its most overrated (San Francisco). Despite a .500 (61-61) record and the loss last night, Arizona has outscored its opponents this year by 67 runs this season. That's still the second best run differential in the entire National League. Compare that to the Giants, who have the same .500 record (61-61), yet have been outscored by 53 runs (4th worst run diff in NL). I'll make the D'backs my biggest MLB play of the year Friday! 

In terms of actual vs. expected wins, Arizona is baseball's biggest underachiever right now as that run differential is indicative of a 68-win team. Meanwhile, San Francisco's run differential is indicative of a 55-win team. So while the two NL West teams are tied, run differential says Arizona has played like a team that should be a 13 games ahead! The key for the Giants has been extremely fortunate record in one-run games (28-11) as well as in extra inning games (11-2). (Obviously, there's some overlap there). The Giants started the 2nd half of the season on a 13-4 run, but were really lucky to do so as seven of those wins came in extra innings and eight were by just one run (again, some overlap)! Since then, the team is two games below .500. I believe further regression is set to take hold. 

Arizona has had no such luck this year, but there's still almost two months to go and they're only 3.5 games back of the Wild Card, same as the Giants. What they do have for Friday is starting pitcher Mike Leake. He struggled his last time out, but that was against the Dodgers. His TSR in his four starts prior was a perfect 4-0, three of those coming w/ Seattle and the other being his D'backs debut. Jeff Samardzija goes for San Fran tonight and while he's been sharp since the All-Star Break, he still has a 6.35 ERA in two starts vs. Arizona in 2019. The Giants have lost 22 of the last 27 times the former Notre Dame wide receiver has started the second game of a series. 10* Arizona 

10* Tampa Bay (7:30 ET): I'm projecting Miami to be the worst team in the league this year. That figures to be a popular take as oddsmakers have established them having the lowest regular season win total at 4.5 (still 5.0 at some shops). I'll first point out that this is a team that went 7-9 SU last year despite being outscored by 114 points. That's a worse point differential than either 6-10 Buffalo or even the 4-12 Jets! Over the last three seasons, the Dolphins have managed to go 23-25 despite a negative 243 point differential and even make the playoffs once. Now it's time to "pay the piper" (so to speak) as the roster has been completely torn down and a new front office/coaching staff is starting from scratch.

For what it's worth, the Dolphins did win their first preseason game, 34-27 over Atlanta. They scored a late TD to get the win for Brian Flores in his coaching debut. Perhaps the most impressive takeaway is that Josh Rosen threw for 191 yards on 13 of 20 passing. He led three different scoring drives of 60+ yards. Rosen, who was the top draft choice of Arizona last year, is embroiled in a battle w/ veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick for the starting job. But keep in mind that Rosen's performance came against an Atlanta team that has now lost 11 straight preseason games. Another issue from last week is Rosen absorbed an abnormal amount of punishment (for preseason) as the Miami offensive line looks to be really bad. They were even manhandled by the Falcons' reserve D-lineman, not a good sign obviously. 

If you recall from my analysis last week, I said the Bucs would improve this year. QB Jameis Winston looked good in his only drive, directing the offense on a 12-play, 81-yard drive that resulted in a touchdown. I think the Winston to Mike Evans combination is going to be a big one in Tampa this year. Tonight marks the 1st home game for coach Bruce Arians, a spot his counterpart won in last week. We've constantly harped on the added motivation a 1st year coach feels in his home debut and will use that situation to our advantage yet again here. 10* Tampa Bay

10* Over Dolphins/Bucs (7:30 ET):  I'm projecting Miami to be the worst team in the league this year. That figures to be a popular take as oddsmakers have established them having the lowest regular season win total at 4.5 (still 5.0 at some shops). I'll first point out that this is a team that went 7-9 SU last year despite being outscored by 114 points. That's a worse point differential than either 6-10 Buffalo or even the 4-12 Jets! Over the last three seasons, the Dolphins have managed to go 23-25 despite a negative 243 point differential and even make the playoffs once. Now it's time to "pay the piper" (so to speak) as the roster has been completely torn down and a new front office/coaching staff is starting from scratch.

For what it's worth, the Dolphins did win their first preseason game, 34-27 over Atlanta. They scored a late TD to get the win for Brian Flores in his coaching debut. Perhaps the most impressive takeaway is that Josh Rosen threw for 191 yards on 13 of 20 passing. He led three different scoring drives of 60+ yards. Rosen, who was the top draft choice of Arizona last year, is embroiled in a battle w/ veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick for the starting job. He moved the ball enough to convince me that he can do the same to a Bucs defense that remains a "work in progress" (to say the least) at this point. Because this is a battle, expect to see more of Fitzpatrick as well. 

Tampa Bay may have lost its preseason opener last week, 30-28 in Pittsburgh, but they covered the spread for me thanks to a late TD. Jameis Winston was in for only one series and directed a TD drive of 12 plays and 91 yards. Winston to WR Mike Evans is going to be a big play combo for the Bucs this year. Behind Winston is Blaine Gabbert, but also Ryan Griffen, who threw for 330 yards last week against the Steelers on 26 of 43 passing. If Arians is going to let his third-string QB rip it like that, then another Over is all but assured here. Tampa's last five preseason games have all gone Over. 10* Over Dolphins/Bucs

8* Washington (7:05 ET): We'll get to the pitching mismatch momentarily, but let's start w/ the fact that this is also a revenge spot for the Nationals. Back in early May, they were swept in a three-game series at Miller Park. Back then, the Nats weren't playing very well. That three-game sweep left them at 14-22 on the young season. Now they're 65-55, meaning they've gone 51-33 ever since. They're also now in the top Wild Card spot after sweeping Cincinnati to start the week. We were on Wednesday's 17-7 win and will back them again at home tonight. Oh, sweet revenge! 

Milwaukee is one of those teams that consistently confounds me. They too are in the WC race, but they really don't deserve to be as they've been outscored by 21 runs over the course of the season. They do have a nice home record, but the road is a different story as they're just 27-32. Having Adrian Houser start tonight's game appears to be of little assistance as he's got a 6.00 ERA and 1.641 WHIP in nine starts (3-6 TSR). Compare that to Washington starter Pat Corbin, who is 9-5 in 24 starts w/ a 3.41 ERA and 1.151 WHIP. 

With this game taking place in the Nation's Capital, the pitching matchup becomes even more lopsided. Corbin has the second best home ERA in MLB (1.78 in 11 starts) to go along w/ a super 0.885 WHIP. His TSR here is 9-2. Meanwhile, Houser's numbers predictably get worse on the road (7.04 ERA and 1.783) and he's winless in those five outings. Washington's offense has totaled 34 runs during a four-game win streak and this is a team making good on my preseason prognostication for improvement (loss of Bryce Harper was overrated). I'm still not sold on the Brew Crew even though they've won six of the last eight. Revenge and an edge in starting pitching will have the Nats in the winners circle tonight. 8* Washington

7* LA Angels (10:07 ET): It's been tough times recently for the Angels. The only real "highlight" was taking B2B games in Boston at the end of a nine-game road trip. But seeing as they lost the first seven games of said trip, it certainly wasn't a success. Nor was their last series, despite it coming at home, as they dropped two of three to the lowly Pirates. The win did come yday though, 7-4, and you shouldn't be surprised if the Halos are able to finally turn things around this weekend as the White Sox pay a visit. Chicago's 54-65 record is definitely not good, but it also fails to paint an accurate picture as to how awful this club has really been. They've been outscored by 114 runs over the course of the season, a worse margin than the 43-78 Royals! 

In terms of actual vs. expected (based on run diff) wins, the White Sox are baseball's biggest overachiever. Again, that may sound strange for a team that's already 11 games below .500. But that -114 run differential is indicative of what you'd expect from a 47-win team at this point of the season. Only three teams - two of them the historically bad Tigers and Orioles - have worse YTD run differentials than the White Sox do. Coming off last night's stunning 13-9 home win over the Astros (were +275 on the ML!), they are ripe for a letdown on the road Thursday. 

Tonight's starter, Reynaldo Lopez, has a 2.65 ERA his L3 starts for the White Sox and the team has won his last two times out. But that 2.65 ERA is misleading in that Lopez's WHIP is 1.707 over the same three starts. That means he's gotten away w/ putting a lot of guys on base. There's absolutely nothing in Lopez's profile to suggest he'll pitch well here. He has a 5.31 ERA and 1.50 WHP in 11 road starts. The Angels have scored seven runs in B2B games. I can't say that their starter (Andrew Heaney) is all that great, but he'll certainly benefit by facing the team that is 28th in MLB in runs scored. This is the first meeting of the season between these teams and you can look for the Angels to pick up the 'W.' 7* LA Angels