*8 Seattle ( 8:40 ET)  Seattle seeks a rare back-to-back win by sending Felix Hernandez to the hill for his Coors Field debut against a hot hitting (.303 at home) Rockies team.

Colorado starter Eddie Butler (3-7; 4.82 ERA) has gotten little benefit from the Rockies hot hitting at home - getting only four runs of total support in his last four home starts.  He is 0-3 with a 5.95 ERA during that span.  On the whole, Colorado has split his last two starts since he returned from the minors.  Colorado is 2-12 in interleague play this year.

Seattle sends Felix Hernandex (12-6 3.02 ERA) to the mound seeking to rebound from an 8-2 loss to Arizona.  He has not lost consecutive games since 2013.  This year after a loss he is 4-0 with a 0.51 ERA.  Prior to the loss, he was on a five game streak with an ERA of 1.09.  Nelson Cruz  comes to Coors Field in the midst of a 13 game hitting streak where he is hitting .407 with 12 RBI’s and eight homers. * 8 Seattle

*10* UNDER 8: Chicago White Sox v Tampa Bay Rays. (8:10ET) History reveals runs are hard to come by when both of tonight’s starters take the hill. Both teams remain in the middle of the race for the second AL wild card despite  both teams on the whole trending downward.  The series begins with Chicago 25-24 at home while Tampa is 26-26 on the road.  

Chicago starter Jose Qunitana (6-9; 3.52 ERA) has allowed 2 runs of less in 13 of his 21 starts.  In his last six starts he has allowed only 12 runs total. The White Sox are only 3 ½ games back for the second AL wild card and have given Quintana 15 runs of support in his last two starts against Cleveland and Boston.

Tampa Bay will send Nathan Karns (6-5; 3.37 ERA) to the hill knowing he has given up only 15 runs in his last eight  starts - surrendering seven of the runs in one game. This includes a 2-1 victory over the White Sox in June.  He won his last start 5-2 going six plus innings against Central Division foe Detriot.   Tampa’s hot hitting Asdrubal Cabrera is only 1 for 16 with five strikeouts against Qunitana. *10* UNDER 8: Chicago White Sox v Tampa Bay Rays.

*10 Cleveland (9:05 ET) Near perfect pitching the past two nights has led Cleveland to victory each night despite scoring only five total runs.  Cleveland is now 28-22 on the road winning 10 of their last 14 on the road.

Cleveland rookie Cody Anderson (2-2; 3.26 ERA) started out his MLB career in June dismantling records that dated to the early1900’s.  Reality returned as he has given up 11 runs and 18 hits over his last 8 plus innings and has given up three home runs in his last two starts - losing one.  Tonight, he seeks to make adjustments andcontinue the Cleveland road magic.

Oakland will start the recently acquired Aaron Brooks (0-0; 6.23 ERA).  The former Kansas City hurler, acquired in the Ben Zobrist trade, is making his fifth appearance and only his second start.  In two relief outings he surrendered three runs and six hits in 4 1/3 innings. During this series only three Oakland batters have hits.  Oakland has scored only 20 runs while hitting only.189 in their last 8 games.  Finally, Oakland is 8-8 this season after 3 consecutive losses and Sonny Gray is not pitching tonight.  *10* Indians

Houston  (8:10 ET)  Last night Houston could not hold a lead and lost for only the third time in ten games while Arizona extended its win streak to six games.  Tonight Houston sends Dallas Keuchel to the mound looking to extend their two game division lead.

Houston hurler Dallas Keuchel ( 12-5; 2.32 ERA) comes to the mound tonight amidst a 24 inning home scoreless streak.  He is 10-0 with a 1.33 ERA at home in his last 14 home starts. Arizona hitting is aflame at .347 with 22 runs in their past three games. 

Arizona will start Jeremy Hellickson ( 7-6; 4.60 ERA) tonight.  He finished July going 2-1 with a 1.88 ERA.  However,in his last four road starts he has has gone 0-2 with a 7.68 ERA.  The Astros lost last night due to the longball but still lead the majors in home runs. Both teams are about .500 after a loss or win but Houston is 36-18 at home. *Houston

* Baltimore (7:05 ET) Baltimore’s enters tonight’s game winners of six of seven games having scored 37 runs in their last seven games. Last night’s loss only increases the Tigers sense of urgency for wild card contention.

Detroit sends Anibal Sanchez ( 10-8 4.61) to the hill where he has won seven of his last nine starts.  Detroit hitters provided him with 56 runs during that streak until his last game against Tampa Bay when the spigot went completely dry.  Detroit has split the first two games of this series scoring 16 runs.  Sanchez beat Baltimore last month 7-3 giving up two runs in six innings.

Baltimore sends Kevin Gausman ( 1-2; 4.20 ERA) encouraged by his last outing where he pitched shutout ball for 7 2/3 innings against Atlanta.  He may need the same effort today as Baltimore has scored only four times in his five starts this season. Baltimore is 26-15 when playing teams with a losing record. They may play their newest acquisition Gerardo Parra who brings a 14 game hitting streak to an already hot line-up.  * Baltimore

*10* Houston  (8:10 ET)  Fueled by trades and a dramatic three run walk-off homer last night Houston is ready to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks winners of five straight.

Led by Jake Lamb and Paul Goldschmidt Arizona has scored 16 runs in their two most recent victories.  They are looking to win six in a row for the first time since 2011.  Starter Rubby De La Rosa (8-5; 4.52 ERA) is looking to win three in a row.  He stifled both the Marlins and Brewers giving up only one run. He is not a road warrior (2-4; 5.04 ERA) giving up 13 home runs in only 55 1/3 innings.  He has lost twice to Houston giving up a whopping 11 runs in 8 2/3 innings.

The Astros lead the majors with 141 home runs. They have won seven of their last nine.  Despite mid season knee surgery, Houston starter Scott Feldman (4-5; 4.54 ERA) is coming of his best start of the year against the American League best Royals.   Houston is retooling as it makes its first playoff push in years.  Tonight, it looks like its full speed ahead. *10* Houston

*10* Red Sox (7:10 ET)  Mired in a lost season, the Red Sox came up big yesterday - winning 8-2 - while Tampa Bay 3-3 in their last six games contemplated how they are going to break out of an Eastern Division logjam.

Tonight Tampa Bay starts Erasmo Ramirez (8-4; 3.74 ERA) who was sailing along giving up two runs or less in nine consecutive games until last Saturday when on one pitch he gave up four on Chris Davis’ grand slam.  This continues an unsettling streak where he has given up a home run in four of his last five starts.  Ramirez is 6-1 on the road this year but has a 6.94 ERA against Boston in his three starts.  Tampa has suffered from road woes winning only three of their last 14 away from Tropicana Field.

Boston bats are hot scoring 33 runs in their last five games.  Boston’s offensive renaissance is lead by David Ortiz .429 with 13 RBI’s and Xander Bogaerts who is hitting .386 during July.  Eduardo Rodriguez ( 6-3, 4.26 ERA) has won three of his past four starts in July and is fresh off an 11-1 victory against Detroit.  The rookie has not yielded more than two runs in his six victories.    Boston is 3-4 on this homestand but is putting a strong arm on the mound along with not bats looking to end July with a victory.*10* Red Sox

* Baltimore (7:05 ET) Baltimore and Detroit enter tonight in a desperate battle for a wild card berth.  Both are suffering from inconsistent play which has driven the Tigers to churn their roster in the trade marketplace. Baltimore enters tonight’s game winners of five of six games. 

Detroit starts Buck Farmer (0-2; 9.22 ERA) who is seeking his first career win. In his four starts he has yielded 23 runs in 16 2/3 innings. Opponents are hitting .373 against him.  He lost his last start in Cleveland 8-2 lasting into the fifth inning while making over 100 pitches.

Baltimore will start Wei-Yin Chen (5-6 2.88 ERA) who won his last outing 5-2. Despite giving up no more than two runs in each of his other starts, he is 1-2 over his last four starts in July.  Uncharacteristically, he has given up five home runs in that span.  Baltimore has scored 29 runs in their last six games which does not bode well for the Tigers. * Baltimore

Under 7: Cleveland/Oakland  (10:05 ET) Yesterday in Cleveland for a brief moment it was 1995 again, as the Indians erupted for six runs on three home runs in the sixth inning on their way to ending their longest home losing streak in 40 years.  In their six prior games they had scored 10 runs.  Oakland has lost five of six. 

Cleveland sends their win leader Carlos Carrasco (10-8; 4.26ERA)  to the hill knowing he is 3-0 with a 1.98 ERA in his last four ROAD starts.  Despite yesterday's run frenzy, Cleveland's overall hitting struggles with runners in scoring position continues. Cleveland is 26-22 on the road where they have won eight of 12.  

Chris Bassitt (0-3 2.94 ERA) has been up and down to the minors this year but his major league ERA has remained consistently below three.  He had his best start in his previous duel with Carrasco on July 11 giving up only 2 runs in a game Oakland won.  In his last start against San Francisco he gave up only 2 runs in a 2-1 loss.   Oakland has been under in three of Bassitt’s four starts - scoring only four times in that span.    Under 7: Cleveland/Oakland

Toronto (7:07 ET)  Yesterday, Toronto lived the fairy tale when new acquisition Troy Tulowitzki homered in his first at bat on the way to a 8-2 win.  Kansas City had a rare nightmare losing to Cleveland 12-1.  Kansas City will have two recent acquisitions making their debuts over the next two nights at Rogers Centre.  The Blue Jays hope the magic is not transferable.

Kansas City will send Danny Duffy (4-4; 4.03 ERA) to face Toronto for the second time this month.  Last time he went six innings and gave up no runs enroute to a 3-0 victory.  In his last seven games he is 2-2 with a 2.74 ERA and a WHIP of 1.17. He has surrendered only four runs in 26 1/3 inning in his last four outings.  Eric Hosmer is batting .462 in the 14 games since the All-Star break-including 3-3 against tonight’s starter for Toronto.

Toronto’s Marco Estrada (7-6; 3.55 ERA) had a rough last start giving up five runs in only four innings against Seattle.  Prior to this start he had given up only two runs in 14 2/3 innings. He has lost to Duffy in his only previous start against the Royals. However, Toronto scored only once in his last three defeats.  Recently revived hitting and a return to solid pitching by Marco are keys to Toronto's rebound tonight.   Toronto 

Baltimore (7:05 ET)  After a dismal 5-15 streak, Baltimore has climbed back into the wild card race going 5-0 -sweeping three from Atlanta- pulling them to within one game of a wild card spot.  Despite a 2-1 victory yesterday, Detroit looks to be falling back to the packgoing 5-11 since July 3.

Baltimore sends Miguel Gonzalez (9-6 3.99 ERA) against the Tigers who he defeated earlier this month. As a follow up he beat Tampa Bay last weekend 5-1 behind solid pitching.  Baltimore has won five of his past seven starts.   He gave up five home runs in his two losses during that same span.  Baltimore is 32-19 at home but overall they are 5-5 in games after they have won three or more in a row.

Detroit sends Alfredo Simon (9-6; 4.46 ERA) tonight off a 5-1 victory in his last start.  However, in his prior six starts, was 1-3 with a 10.16 ERA.  It is reported that he suffered a slight groin pull in his victory on Saturday. Overall in his last ten road starts he has a 5.57 ERA.  Reflecting their .500 status, the Tigers are 25-23 after a win.  The venerable Victor Martinez is hitting .392 during a 13 game hitting streak at Camden yards.* Baltimore

*10 Nationals (7:10ET) Despite winning last night the Marlins have their fourth worst record after 100 games.  The Nationals line-up is rejuvenated with Anthony Redon, Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth all returning from injury and being in the lineup together for the first time this season.  They were four of 10 in their reunion.   

The Nationals look to continue the Marlins woes by sending Doug Fister who is 2-0 with a 1.14 ERA against the Marlins. Overall Fister brings a 3-6 record with a 4.50 ERA.  He can benefit from the reshaped Nationals offense who has scored only four runs in his last four starts which explains a 1-3 record in his last five starts.  Last night’s trade for Papelbon bolsters an already very strong bullpen for the Nationals.

Marlins starter Tom Koehler is 8-6 with a 3.16 ERA.  When the Marlins score three of more runs he is 6-0.  Reality Check: The Marlins have scored only 8 runs in their last four startsbut Koehler has an eye-popping 1.62 ERA in his last six starts.  In his last start against the Nationals he lost 7-5 giving up five runs in seven innings.  *10*Nationals

*10* San Francisco (3:45 ET)  The Giants are feasting on teams with losing records having won six of seven and 12 of their last 14. The Brewers have lost four of six on this road trip scoring a meager 17 runs in that span with five coming yesterday.

The Brewers are sending Mike Fiers (5-8; 3.94) to try and stop the San Francisco juggernaut. He has only won two of his past six starts, losing his last start against Arizona 8-3.  He has given up four home runs in his last three starts.  This year Fiers is 0-2; 3.75 ERA against the Giants with the recently activated Nori Aoki going 9 of 14 against him.

San Francisco hurler Jake Peavy (2-4; 4.86 ERA) is seeking his third straight win despite giving up three home runs and seven total runs in his last 12 1/3 innings.  Last year he was 1-1 with a 2.33 ERA against Milwaukee.  The Giants have a 21-13 record in day games (Brewers 13-23) and have now pulled within a half game of the division lead providing additional motivation to win this series. *10* San Francisco (3:45 ET)  

*10* UNDER 7.5 Cleveland/Kansas City (12:10 ET) Last night Cleveland’s inability to score haunted them again as they lost their 8thstraight home game.  Despite being held to two runs Kansas City won for the 16th time in their last 21 starts.

Cleveland’s Corey Kluber brings his 5-11; 3.59 ERA record to the mound during an offensive drought by his teammates.  Cleveland has scored only 18 runs in their last eight games. Kluber is 2-2 in his last four starts - Cleveland failed to score a run in his two loses contributing to his league worst 2.61 run support average.  Cleveland has scored but seven times in his three starts against Kansas City this year.  His control remains intact with 168 strikeouts - second in the American League.  He has been “under” in five of his last seven starts. 

Kansas City starts Jeremy Guthrie  enters this game having won only one of his past four starts. Overall, this year he has compiled a pedestrian record of 7-6; 5.35 ERA.  Lifetime Guthrie is 2-4 at Progressive Field. In Guthrie’s last start against Cleveland in June Kansas City lost 2-1.  Cleveland hitters Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana are each 11 for 25 with two homers.  Last night’s KC hero Eric Hosmer continues to hit near .400 against Cleveland going 6 of 9 with two homers in this series. *10* UNDER Cleveland/Kansas City.

*10* OVER 6.5 LA Dodgers/Oakland (10:10 ET)  The roadmap for both teams for the rest of the season is pretty clear.  Tonight’s first game of a two game series will allow Oakland to put its best foot forward with Sonny Gray.

Sonny Gray (10-4, 2.30 ERA) has been slumping - giving up seven runs in 13 innings since the All-Star break. He has given up three home runs in his last two starts but remains 7-1 in his last 11 road starts.  Oakland hitters are led by Ben Zobrist who is batting .349 in his last 12 games.  Despite a 23-27 away record, Oakland has been "over"  more than half the time on the road.

The Dodgers send former A’s pitcher, Brett Anderson (5-5; 3.25 ERA) to the hill.  The lefthander had gone 0-1 with a 5.52 ERA in his latest starts.  He left his last start due to a foot injury but after subsequent bullpen sessions  he was given the "green light" to start. The Dodgers have scored 17 runs in their past five contests. The Dodgers are 33-17 at home and have been over 63.3% at home. *10* OVER 6.5 LA Dodgers/Oakland  

*10* Cleveland (7:05 ET).  Cleveland lost the first games of home series last night dropping to 2-15 in opening night games at home.  Kansas City continued to get timely hitting and strong pitching.  Tonight, two pitchers search for redemption-anything is possible.

Cleveland is 7-4 after losing 3 or more consecutive games. Tonight Kansas City is offering them a pitcher who gives them a "golden opportunity" for success.  Chris Young (7-6; 3.58 ERA) is 4-2 on the road, but as a starter in June, against Cleveland, he lasted only five innings and gave up six runs in a loss to Trevor Bauer - tonight’s starter for Cleveland. With Johnny Cueto on staff, Young is a candidate for bullpen duty. He already has made six relief appearances this year and he gave up two, two-run homers in his three inning appearance last Thursday.   

Cleveland’s staff has given up 20 homers in the first inning.  Trevor Bauer (8-7; 4.29 ERA) has a homer problem, too. He has lost both second half starts giving up five “dingers” in the process.    The bright spot: Bauer is 1-0 in two starts against Kansas City.  Early this season he was 3-1 with a 1.75 overall ERA.  Cleveland is looking to avoid an eight game home losing streak for the first time in 40 years.   *10* Cleveland.

*Baltimore  (7:05ET)  Last night saw Baltimore make it three straight with a gritty 11th inning comeback.  Atlanta now has lost 14 of 18 on the road.

Baltimore has scored only 12 runs during their three game winning stretch.  Their pitchers have been outstanding posting a 1.31 ERA over the past three games.   Tonight, Baltimore will start Ubaldo Jimenz (7-6; 3.81 ERA) who is 5-1 with a 2.06 ERA at Camden Yards in his last seven starts. This is in stark contrast to his last two road starts - both losses - including his shortest stint of the year in a 9-3 loss at Yankee Stadium.

 The road has not been kind to Atlanta. Atlanta has scored only six runs in the first four games of this road trip. They are batting .178 with runners in scoring position. Last night they went 0-9.   Tonight’s starter (Julio Teheran 6-5 4.49 ERA) is 0-4 in his nine road starts while posting a 7.61 ERA.  Despite striking out 11 in his last start he  lost 3-1. *Baltimore

*10* OVER Cleveland/Kansas City (7:10 ET)  The Royals have won 15 of their last 20.  Cleveland has a record of 2-14 at home in series openers.

Kansas City starter Edinson Volquez beat Pittsburgh in his last start.  Tonight he brings his 9-5; 3.15 ERA to Cleveland where he has struggled.  He has one no decision against Cleveland this year and is 1-2 with an 11.48 ERA in his career against them.  Kansas City’s offense loves Cleveland pitching.  Eric Hosmer is hitting .361 with three home runs and Mike Moustakas is hitting a blistering .417 this seson. 

The elite Cleveland starting pitching is starting to show strains - giving up 26 runs to the weak hitting White Sox this weekend-all loses. Tonight, Cody Anderson 2-1; 1.91 ERA starts is looking to be the exception.  He came up from the minors and put up historic numbers, but in his last outing gave up four runs and 10 hits in only 2 2/3 innings.   The Royals are buoyed by the Cueto trade; are 7-4 since the break; and will feast tonight in celebration. *10* OVER Cleveland/Kansas City (7:10 ET)

*10* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET).  Both teams enter tonight’s game having lost 2 of 3 and are mired in post All-Star slumps. Both have fallen from First to the wild card pack. Time is running out.

Tampa Bay will start Nathan Karns (5-5; 3.47 ERA).  He is 2-2 in his last seven starts despite posting a 2.83 ERA. In his last start he took things into his own hands: hit a homer and pitched five scoreless innings in a 1-0 victory. 

Tonight the Tigers send Anibal Sanchez (10-7; 4.59 ERA) to the mound. He is 7-0 with a 3.16 ERA in his last eight starts.  He is only 3-3 in road starts with a 4.17 ERA.  He has won seven in a row before but never eight. Last year Sanchez was hammered by Tampa Bay giving up 7 runs in 5 2/3 innings.  Despite averaging 4.2 runs during their losing streak the Tigers have lost 9 of 13.  *10* Tampa Bay.

*Baltimore  (7:05ET)  Over the weekend Baltimore bats went emerged from their sleep and they took two of three from Tampa Bay.  Tonight they are looking to win three straight for the first time since late June.

Baltimore will send Kevin Gausman (0-2; 5.18 ERA) against an Atlanta team that is batting .194 and scored only six runs in its last four games.  Gausman started the season strong but has given up 12 runs in his last two starts since being recalled from the minors.  Baltimore returns home where they are 29-19 this season.

Atlanta is 19-26 after a win.  Backed by an anemic offense, Atlanta starter Alex Wood (7-6; 3.78 ERA) will need to better his last performance where he gave up only three runs in 6 2/3 innings for the eventual win.  In his previous start he was rocked by Colarodo taking an 11-3 loss. *Baltimore 

Full Analysis POSTED by NOON 7.26.15

Full Analysis POSTED by Noon 7.26.15

Analysis posted by NOON 7.26.15

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET):  Please note that this is a play on Game 2 of today's day/night doubleheader in Anaheim.  Last night's postponement only delayed the inevitable for the Red Sox, at least in my opinion, and that's a likely sweep here at the hands of the Halos. Note that regardless of what happens in the first game of the DH, I'm backing the home team here. LA took the first two games of this series, both in shutout fashion, and when the Red Sox don't score they are in massive trouble as their starting rotation simply isn't very good.  Right now, these clubs appear to be trending in very opposite directions as the Angels have taken over first place in the AL West (15-5 L20) while Boston continues to reside in the basement of the AL East w/ a very poor run differential.

Speaking to the Red Sox poor rotational depth, they will be going with Steven Wright here in Game 2.  That's a big downgrade from Game 1 starter Eduardo Rodriguez.  Wright has made only four starts this season and the team has lost three of them.  This will be his first time starting in over a month.  At the same time, the Red Sox bats have gone silent w/ just seven hits so far in the series and five of those were singles.  They don't figure to be very productive Monday as they must deal w/ a pair of lefty starters as their record against them is 9-13 this season.  They are also just 20-26 on the road.  Visiting teams are batting just .223 here in Anaheim this season.

Andrew Heany starts tonight for the Angels and he's looked good in his four starts, posting a 1.32 ERA and 0.842 WHIP.  His team start record is 4-0.  Last time out, he threw seven scoreless innings of five-hit ball, and unlike Wright, Heany is now a normal member of the starting rotation. He's gone 7+ innings in each of his last three starts.  While this Angels pitching staff has posted three shutouts over its L10 games, the offense has also scored 10 or more runs four times during that same span.  Look for them to finish this rare wraparound series off w/ a win.  8* LA Angels

10* Kansas City (8:10 ET):  For Pittsburgh, perhaps the All-Star Break came at the wrong time. Certainly, they headed into the Break w/ some "momentum" after taking three of four (at home) from first place St. Louis.  But they then proceeded to get swept at last place Milwaukee to start the second half.  That was a real shocker, but things certainly get no easier to start the week as the Bucs make their first visit to Kansas City since 2006.  The Royals took three of four over the weekend from the White Sox, in Chicago, and now return home where they've gone 30-16 and outscored opponents by more than a full run per game. With Pittsburgh now sporting a losing road record, the home field edge could be huge in this series.

For the Royals, Yordano Ventura wasn't exactly efficient in his first start back from the DL, but fortunately the offense bailed him out in an 8-3 win over Tampa Bay on July 9th.  Clearly, he should be well-rested here and that means he's likely to revert to his strong form in the early part of the season.  Overall, his team has won 11 of 14 games to get to 20 games above .500, something that only the Cardinals can also claim. I don't think that there's any question right now that the reigning pennant holders are now the favorites to win the American League.  That doesn't necessarily mean that I think they will, only that clearly they are the top contender as of right now. 

Pittsburgh has won 10 of 15 in IL play this year, but starter AJ Burnett has struggled in the past when pitching in American League parks as his ERA in his L8 starts in them is 5.21.  Burnett has pitched remarkably well this season, but his WHIP is above 1.300 on the road.  Shortstop Jordy Mercer being out potentially looms large in this series.  The Bucs have won just seven times this season as underdogs on the money line, including a 5-9 mark on the road and priced in between +100 and +125.   10* Kansas City

9* Run Line Atlanta (7:10 ET):  Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Braves +1.5.  The Dodgers are coming off somewhat of a "high profile" win yday as Zack Greinke extended his scoreless innings streak to 43 2/3 in a 5-0 win over the Nats Sunday.  While "fair is fair" and that win came on the road, the fact remains that LA is still only 20-23 for the year outside of Chavez Ravine.  Another issue for them moving forward is a severe dropoff in the starting rotation after Greinke and LY's Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw. The Braves, who are a solid 24-19 at Turner Field this season, get a huge break in avoiding both in this series and w/ the benefit of the +1.5 here, I say they cash in Monday at the expense of former teammate Brandon Beachy. 

After starting the 2nd half w/ a win here at home over the Cubs, Atlanta has since dropped B2B games.  They scored a total of one run in the two losses, admittedly a scary sign, but I like what I've seen so far from Matt Wisler, a top prospect who gets the start tonight.  Wisler has been particularly dominant so far in his two home starts, posting a 0.68 ERA and 0.900 WHIP.  Last time out, he allowed just two runs while striking out seven batters, a performance made all the more impressive by the fact it came at Coors Field in Denver. While they have just one win in their last eight games overall, Atlanta has played more one run games (31) than all but three teams in the entire National League.

As for Dodger Blue, despite their first place status, they remain an overall money loser (-7.7 units) for the season due to consistently high prices, on a game by game basis.  On the road, they are down 11.6 units and that includes a 5-8 WL record when a money line favorite of -125 to -150.  Beachy did not look very good in his return from Tommy John surgery as he lasted only four innings and had more walks than strikeouts. When the playoffs inevitably come for the Dodgers, they'll be fine when they can shorten the rotation, but as for right now they're only 3-4 L7 when neither Greinke nor Kershaw is on the hill.  Also, catcher Yasmani Grandal could be out of the lineup tonight.  9* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5)

10* White Sox (2:10 EST):

Chris Sale was not inserted into the All-Star Game, which means the hard-throwing southpaw comes into this contest on a ton of rest, I believe this will translate into production on the mound for the White Sox' ace and do indeed expect a lop-sided result at the end of the afternoon.

Sale (8-4, 2.72 ERA) is looking to match a season-high with a third straight victory, most recently he'd' give up one run while striking out ten over seven innings in a 5-1 win over the Cubs at Wrigley. Sale leads the Junior Circuit with 11.71 K's per nine innings and ranks among MLB's leaders with 157 K's and a 6.83 K-to-walk ratio. Sale has been particularly sharp in this position throughout his career, going 7-3 with a tiny 2.15 ERA in 12 career starts with six more days' rest (also note that Sale has posted a highly respectable 2.61 ERA in 14 career starts vs. the Royals).

The visitors turn to Danny Duffy (3-4, 4.65 ERA) who gave up four hits over six innings in a 3-0 home win over the Jays on July 10, a victory which would snap a four-game losing streak in which he posted a deplorable 6.91 ERA over his previous six starts. Command has been a major problem for Duffy this season, who has issued six walks with one K over his last two starts and unfortunately for the journeyman, a game vs. the White Sox is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as he's struggled in two starts vs. them already this year, giving up five runs on April 8th, before then giving up two runs in a 3-2 road loss on April 24th. Major talent discrepancy here, this line should be higher, 10* White Sox

10* NY Yankees Run Line (1:05 ET):

I played on the Mariners on the Run Line yesterday and obviously would not even need the extra 1.5 runs of insurance as they'd hold on for the 4-3 win. Seattle would snap a seven-game losing streak to New York with the victory. But despite one of the league's best on the mound for the visiting side, I feel that the value has now swung the other way here and like CC Sabathia and the home side to keep this one close to the end.

Seattle hands the ball to ace Felix Hernandez (11-5, 2.84 ERA) who closed the first half with a ton of momentum, giving up no runs in three of five starts prior to the break. "The King" has enjoyed plenty of success against New York throughout his career, but the last time he faced it he was shelled for seven runs over 4 2/3's innings in a 7-2 setback at home on June 1st. One player that Hernandez should keep his eyes on is Yanks' slugger Mark Teixeira, who has hit .303 with six homers in 66 at-bats in the matchup.

New York looks to bounce back here, it uncharacteristically went 0 for 8 with runners in scoring position yesterday, only its fourth loss in 12 games in July. The home side now turns to the veteran Sabathia (4-8, 5.47 ERA) who gave up two runs over 5 1/3's innings in a 5-4 victory over Oakland on July 8th. If history is any precedence, then Sabathia can expect a pretty decent result here, he's 8-1 with a tiny 1.87 ERA in his last 11 starts against the Mariners, most recently allowing two runs over 5 2/3's innings in a 5-3, 11-inning victory at Safeco on June 2. Very good value, with a contest which I expect to be decided late or in extra innings, I'll grab the run-and-a-half for this reasonable mid-sized price. 10* Yanks Run Line

10* Over Sea/NY (1:05 ET):

New York won Game 1 of this series 4-3 and the Mariners returned the favor with an identical score on Saturday (I had the M's in that one). Both games have fallen below the posted number so far, but I believe that the value has now clearly swung the other way and think we can finally expect some offensive fireworks in the finale.

The visitors hand the ball to ace Felix Hernandez (11-5, 2.84 ERA) who has for the most part been superb all season, he closed the first half on a tear, giving up no runs in three of five starts prior to the break. Hernandez has enjoyed plenty of success vs. the Yanks throughout his career, but the last time he faced them he was shelled for seven runs over just 4 2/3's innings in a 7-2 setback at home on June 1. Hernandez should be wary of New York slugger Mark Teixeira in this one as he's hit .303 with six home runs in 66 at-bats in this matchup.

The Yankees will be eager to return to form today, yesterday's setback was particularly frustrating as they'd uncharacteristically go 0 for 8 with runners in scoring position. It was in fact just the fourth loss in 12 games this month for New York, who now turns to veteran CC Sabathia (4-8, 5.47 ERA) who is coming off a decent outing in a 5-4 win over the A's on July 8th, but who had posted a ballooned 6.65 ERA over his four previous starts. Also note that Sabathia has struggled in this spot all season long, posting a horrible 8.10 ERA in three outings with at least six days' rest. A highly competitive "back-and-forth" finally results in some runs. 10* Over

10* Dodgers (4:05 ET):

Clayton Kershaw vs. Doug Fister. At first glance, this seems like a pretty big mismatch, but after the way that Kershaw struggled in the first half of the 2015 MLB campaign, the oddsmakers are leading us to believe that this match-up is a lot closer than what it really is in my opinion. This is the time of year that Kershaw has traditionally dominated in and I expect the reigning Cy Young award winner to come in on top form and to take advantage of this favourable match-up.

Kershaw (6-6, 2.85 ERA) has owned the Nationals throughout his career, he's won five straight against them while posting a minuscule 1.16 ERA in the process and holding them to a paltry .157 batting average. Note that he gave up one run over 15 innings while posting 17 K's in two victories against them in 2014. There's no doubt that Kershaw is expected to bounce back here, since 2011 he's 38-9 with a 1.70 ERA in 55 post All-Star break starts, averaging 9.33 K's per nine inning, while posting a 0.92 WHIP (Kershaw was particularly dominant after the All-Star game last year, going 10-1 with a 1.76 ERA in 13 starts, striking out 113 in 102 innings, en route to the Dodgers second straight NL West title). In fact, if we dig a little deeper, we find that Kershaw has in fact already "turned the corner" so to speak, he entered the break having thrown an eight-hit shutout with 13 K's against Philadelphia on July 8th, after limiting the Mets to one run in seven frames on July 3rd.

And that's bad news for Fister (3-4, 4.08 ERA) who is clearly going to have his hands full today, he's gone just 1-2 with a pedestrian 3.70 ERA in four starts since returning from the DL last month. Note that Fister's lone outing vs. LA was a 4-1 setback to Kershaw on September 2nd, when he was shelled for four runs and ten hits over five innings. It's put up or shut up for Kershaw, I look for the Dodgers' ace to answer the call. 10* Dodgers

10* Under Royals/White Sox (2:10 EST):

The White Sox have a long way to go to get back into playoff contention, but they've certainly been playing better of late having won 11 of their last 15, which included splitting yesterday's double-header against the visiting Kansas City Royals. Kansas City took the first game 4-2, before the home side then bounced back with a 2-0 victory. I believe those two contests were foreshadowing another inevitable pitchers duel on Saturday as once again all signs do indeed point to another low-scoring affair.

The home side hands the ball to Jose Quintana (4-9, 3.69 ERA) who has posted a highly respectable 2.82 ERA in his last nine games, but who has received just 14 runs of support in that span, most recently giving up three runs over 7 1/3's innings in a 3-1 loss to the Cubs on Sunday. Quintana has struggled against the Royals historically, but looked sharp in his last start vs. them, yielding two runs over seven innings in a no-decision back on April 24th.

The visitors counter with Jeremie Guthrie (7-5, 5.36 ERA) who has had no such issues whenever he's faced the White Sox, going 4-1 with a 2.82 ERA in his last six vs. them. Also note that Guthrie has dominated whenever given the chance to throw at US Cellular Field, posting a 5-1 record with a tiny 1.51 ERA over his past seven starts there. While neither starter immediately strikes fear into an opposing line-up, the conditions would seemingly be perfect for another low-scoring affair, I expect this one to once again sneak below the posted number. 10* UNDER

8* Sea Mariners Run Line (1:05 ET):

Michael Pineda is the starting pitcher for the New York Yankees today and he was interestingly signed by Seattle as a 16-year old almost ten years ago. Pineda hasn't fared well in these spots over his career though and all signs point to another setback today. New York won the opener of this series with a 4-3 effort to extend its run in the series to seven yesterday, adding fuel to the fire for Hisashi Iwakuma and the visiting Mariners.

Pineda (9-5, 3.64 ERA) has admittedly been "lights out" over the last month or so, most recently he'd give up one run over 6 2/3's innings in a 5-1 win at Boston on July 10th, giving up a 1.25 ERA and 24 K's to just one walk over his last 21 2/3's innings of work. However, there's no question that this is a position in which Pineda has struggled in throughout his career, going 1-7 with a pedestrian 4.23 ERA in 14 starts following six or more days of rest. He is in fact 0-2 with a ballooned 6.06 ERA in three such instances in 2015.

The Mariners will look to take advantage of that fact and to avenge a 7-2 loss to Pineda at home on June 1st by handing the ball to Iwakuma (1-1, 5.22 ERA) who was roughed up in his first start back from the DL on July 6th, before then posting a fantastic effort in a 5-0 win over the Angels last Saturday by scattering three hits over eight innings. Iwakuma has enjoyed success in "The Big Apple" as well, while he has just a 1-2 record, he's posted a highly respectable 3.33 ERA in four starts there. While I would not be surprised to see an outright victory today, I do feel a lot safer laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance as I think Iwakuma can battle Pineda into the latter frames. 8* Run Line Mariners.

8* Run Line Colorado (10:10 ET):  Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rockies +1.5.  At first glance, neither of these two NL West also-rans seem to offer much value.  But Colorado does have revenge after being swept here at Petco Park in their previous visit back in early May. Thus, with the +1.5 available, I like the Rockies to do no worse than a one-run loss here.  These teams have been trending in opposite directions as of late as Colorado pulled off a rare four-game sweep (of Atlanta) heading into the Break while the disappointing Padres have scored more than three runs only one time in the last nine games (2-7 overall). Also of note is that six of those nine games were decided by a one-run margin.

The 1st half results for a San Diego team that spent heavily in the offseason can be only categorized one way, and that is as a "complete disaster." Starter James Shields was one of the top acquisitions, but after a misleading 7-0 start (more on that momentarily), he hasn't won a decision since May. His walk rate of 4.66 per nine innings is definitely not good.  The team did win the last time Shields took the mound, but that was in spite of him as he walked four batters and allowed four runs in just 5 1/3 innings of work. Previous results against the Rockies don't inspire any confidence either as despite a win, he was tagged for five runs in 5 1/3 IP the last time he faced them, increasing his ERA to 4.07 in four career starts vs. them.

Colorado had a monster weekend offensively vs. Atlanta before the Break.  They pounded out a total of 55 hits in four games and have now registered double-digit hit totals in seven of their last eight games. The one that they didn't, they had nine.  As far as pitching goes, tonight's starter Jorge De La Rosa has been very sharp of late (1.89 ERA L3 starts) and as you might expect has been better numbers away from Coors Field (1.67 ERA, 1.021 WHIP in five starts).  Overall, the team has won 9 of the past 10 times he's taken the mound!  San Diego remains overpriced based on preseason expectations and the run line offers some nice "insurance" as the Rockies have the revenge angle in play, meaning they're highly unlikely to be swept again this weekend. 8* Run Line Colorado +1.5

10* San Francisco (9:40 ET):  In a battle of the two teams fighting for second in the NL West, I believe Arizona to be vastly overvalued in this spot.  Not only do the Giants have revenge for a three-game sweep suffered at home last month, but the defending World Series champs are also clearly the more proven commodity.  Thanks to drawing horrible Philadelphia at home, they went into the All-Star Break riding a three-game win streak.  As a result, they now have a run differential of +26 for the year while the D'backs are dead even in that department after being swept themselves, on the road, by the Mets in their last series.  Even the perceived edge in starting pitching for the home team here is a tad bit misleading. With a solid 21-17 record as underdogs, San Francisco is the play in Friday's series opener. 

Veteran Matt Cain has made only two starts in 2015, but the second went a lot better than the first as he didn't give up a single run over six innings (just two hits) in a 3-0 win over the Mets.  Cain, no stranger to facing Arizona, has a 2.79 ERA his L5 starts here at Chase Field.  Remember that behind him is arguably the best infield in all of baseball and with Hunter Pence back in the lineup, we should see more of the kind of offense we saw against Philadelphia where they posted 48 hits in just three games!  Yes, a seven-game road losing streak is a bit concerning, but consider that the Giants won 21 of their first 35 away games, so a bounce back is likely.  Offensively, the team is doing much better on the road this season compared to at home (4.8 vs. 4.2 rpg). 

Arizona's Robbie Ray has had somewhat of an up and down campaign thus far, but at home it's been mostly "down" as he's winless here in three starts w/ a 1.440 WHIP.   He is off a quality start vs. Texas where both runs allowed were unearned, but has not won B2B starts all season. The fact that Ray has yet to record more outs via the ground ball than the fly ball is concerning, especially against a Giants' lineup that's hitting .270 against lefties.  The D'backs own offense, considered a strength, scored only seven times while batting a collective .174 against the Mets last weekend.  The road team is underpriced in this one. 10* San Francisco

8* Houston (8:10 ET):  The All-Star Break probably could not have come at a better time for the suddenly fading Astros, losers of six straight as they inexplicably just stopped scoring in the last week.  During the losing skid, which came at Cleveland and Tampa Bay, the 'Stros scored a grand total of seven runs, which is obviously way down for an offense that ranks 4th in scoring and 7th in slugging. However, despite the poor end to the 1st half, fans have to be happy that the team remains "a year ahead of schedule" at seven games above .500 and in playoff position. I really like them tonight, back at home, in the series opener against a Texas team that similarly limped into the Break, but unlike Houston, offers little reason for optimism.

The Astros have weak rotational depth, but fortunately tonight will have one of their stalwarts on the bump, that being Colin McHugh, who has posted an impressive 0.935 WHIP his last three starts overall.  McHugh is a solid #2 in the rotation behind Cy Young candidate Dallas Keuchel and in his last home start went the distance while allowing just one run on two hits. Back on April 10th, he allowed just one run in six innings vs. these Rangers in a 5-1 road win. His ERA is now 2.08 in two lifetime starts against them. Unfortunately, Texas would go on to sweep a three-game set here at Minute Maid Park a month later. But that obviously puts the revenge angle, so prevalent in this three-game report, into play. 

Speaking of questionable rotational depth, the Rangers are giving the baseball to Martin Perez here.  This will be Perez's first start at the big league level in 2015 after so-so results at both Double-A and Triple-A.  At Triple-A, he posted a 4.95 ERA while opponents hit a whopping .333 against him. In his last start, he allowed five runs and 12 hits. I place little stock into his 3-0 career record vs. Houston since this Astros lineup is vastly different than the ones he faced previously.  By the way, Texas has dropped seven of eight while being outscored 47-24.  They are a dismal 11-23 in division games this season and I cannot see them maintaining their strong road record (currently 26-20) moving forward.  8* Houston

10* Cincinnati (7:05 ET):  As we progress through the second half of the season, I have the feeling that the Reds will generally be fade material (especially if they end up dealing Johnny Cueto), but here I think they find themselves in a good situation. MLB's host city for the All-Star Game gets to stay at Great American Ballpark this weekend and host in-state "rival" Cleveland, who swept them earlier this year. My regular clients know how I love to exploit this situation as often times it's simply too difficult to sweep the same team twice in a row. Having to face Corey Kluber tomorrow, this is the game the Reds need to take. Also, theoretically, the Indians' lineup will be weaker than normal as the pitcher is going to have to come up to bat. 

Cleveland probably should be a lot better, record-wise. They entered the Break four games below .500. This despite having excellent starting pitching as a group who led all of baseball LY in strikeout rate has actually improved that number here in 2015. Four Tribe starters already have posted 100 K's this season, one of them being Trevor Bauer, who gets the baseball here tonight. Unfortunately for Bauer and company though, a combination of awful fielding (similar to last year) and a general lack of hitting have negated the starting pitching advantage. The team was shut out in its last game and is scoring only 3.1 rpg its last seven while batting .228. Also, the Indians have been generally overpriced throughout the season, which should be fairly obvious given the fact they're -14.4 units YTD (3rd worst in all of baseball). 

The Reds, meanwhile, can safely be labeled as "non-contenders" in a less wide-open National League.  But one key here is that they are a respectable 22-18 at home as opposed to 17-29 on the road.  Starter Mike Leaker, who like Cueto may be on the move soon, is coming off perhaps his finest outing of the year, one that saw him toss eight scoreless innings of three-hit ball last Friday w/ 10 K's against just one walk.  One thing you can always count on w/ Cincinnati is that if they can get to the ninth w/ the lead, then you're in good shape as Aroldis Chapman remains perhaps the most dominant closer in the game.  10* Cincinnati.

8* Run Line Seattle (7:05 ET):  Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Mariners +1.5.   Do not let the vaunted names on either the front or the back of the jerseys fool you here as Masahiro Tanaka and the Yankees continue to be overvalued by the linesmakers despite their continuing hold on first place in the American League East.  While they went into the Break on a 7-3 run their L10, I continue to have my doubts that this is anything but a slightly above average ballclub.  Of couse, "slightly above average" is a better distinction than what the Mariners were in the first half as by most metrics, they were one of the AL's worst teams. But I do not see them losing the series opener by more than one run on Friday. 

Tanaka has a 3-0 team start record his L3 starts, but his ERA is 4.82 in that time.  He does have a better WHIP than ERA, but a 4.41 ERA here in the Bronx this season has to be slightly concerning.  Tanaka did shut this Seattle lineup down earlier in the season, but that was up in Seattle.  The M's have actually won five straight times here at Yankee Stadium.  Furthermore, their starter Mike Montgomery comes in w/ a perfect road record at 3-0 & his ERA/WHIP are an outstanding 0.87 and 1.016 respectively.  Montgomery has allowed 2 ER or fewer in all but two of his eight starts this season and absolutely gives his team a chance at victory in this one. Earlier this year, he allowed only one run on four hits in 6 IP vs. the Yankees.

Seattle has revenge here for a three-game sweep suffered at Safeco Field back in early June.  As my regulars know, this is a situation where I like to back the team playing w/ revenge as I feel it's simply too tough to sweep the same opponent twice in a row.  That will be a theme in this three-game package, by the way.  Interestingly, the Mariners actually have a better record on the road than at home this year. The offense does rank last in MLB in OBP, but I'm envisioning a low-scoring game here anyway, which is why I think the +1.5 is a nice little added insurance to have.  The Yankees are just 13-13 vs. lefties in 2015.  An older team that is poor defensively and lacking in depth, I'm not a real buyer on the Pinstripes right now, especially tonight. 8* Run Line Seattle +1.5

10* Connecticut (7:05 ET): This is a pretty tough spot for host New York to be laying points as they are w/o rest and could come in overconfident following a blowout of lowly San Antonio.  Overconfidence won't be an issue for the visiting Sun, however, as they enter in on a four-game losing skid.  Remember that this is a team that opened the year 7-1 SU and a perfect 8-0 against the spread.  They've gone 4-1 SU on the road and perhaps more importantly, they had Wednesday off.  In their last game, Connecticut played Minnesota (top team in the league) tough and covered the spread (barely) at home.  It was actually a one-possession game w/ just 15 seconds to go. They're the more desperate team here. Take the points.

The Liberty probably couldn't have played much better than they did yday afternoon in an 84-68 win and cover (as nine-point chalk) over 3-11 San Antonio.  It was a big win for the franchise as it snapped a six-game losing streak to the Stars.  It was a big crowd at MSG, in fact their biggest in 13 seasons.  To me, a letdown is somewhat inevitable. This marks the first time since the second game of the year that New York has had to play twice in two days.  The first go around saw them lose by five at Washington.  While overall they've won four of five, New York's three victories before yday all were by single digits.  Predictably, this number is being bet up. 

These Eastern Conference rivals have matching 9-3 ATS records (Liberty have one 'push' on their resume).  Note that two of the three times Connecticut failed to cover, they were actually favored.  In the underdog role, they've covered an impressive eight of nine. They must shore things up on the defensive end, after allowing an average of 85.2 points per game their last five, but fortunately the Liberty come in ranked 9th in the 12-team league in scoring (73.2 PPG).  En route to their league-best road record, the Sun have allowed just 74.2 PPG.   Look for them to stay within the number here.  10* Connecticut

8* Chicago (12:35 ET):  Since the last time these two teams hooked up, they've been trending in very different directions.  Washington, who won at home by 15 pts back on June 28th, has dropped two straight, one in very embarrassing fashion (73-50 at Indiana), followed by a tough home loss to New York in OT.  Meanwhile, Chicago, after losing itself to the Liberty, has now won three straight, the last two of which have been right here at home in very impressive fashion. First off, they beat Minnesota, 90-83 as 3.5-pt dogs.  Then, they turned around and clobbered Connecticut by a score of 96-76, laying eight points.  The Eastern Conference leaders have now topped 90 pts in over half of their games. Lay the points here.

Having the home court for an early start time is also beneficial to the Sky here. After winning its first three, the Mystics have dropped B2B road games, including the horrendous 50-point effort at Indiana two weeks ago.  While the visitors may come in as the more rested team here, they are at the disadvantage of starting early.  We've only seen two such early start times this month in WNBA.  One, ironically enough, saw Washington lose at home (that was last wk to NY).  The other resulted in a 23-pt blowout for the home team.  Back in June, the Sky won their lone early weekday home game.  Overall, they've gone 4-1 SU at the AllState Arena this year, winning by an average of 9.2 points per game.

As mentioned above, the Sky are off a very impressive win their last time out, crushing Connecticut by 20 as they shot a blistering 56.7 percent from the floor. Cappie Pondexter's 29 points were huge as it eased the scoring burden on Elena Delle Donne, who only managed 12. But she leads the league in scoring as does the team.  The last time these teams met, Chicago missed all eight attempts from behind the three-point arc while Connecticut went 10 for 19. I do not expect a repeat of that, plus Delle Donne (65 pts in L75 minutes played vs. Washington) should score more here than she did last game, counteracting any decrease from Pondexter.  With only 119 total pts scored in regulation the L2 games, the Mystics simply don't have enough offense to keep pace this afternoon.  8* Chicago

8* Phoenix (10:05 ET):  Now that Brittney Griner is back in the fold, it's Mercury rising. It's now five straight wins for Phoenix, three of the last four coming by double digits.  They just swept a home and home against lowly Seattle, including a 70-60 win here at the U.S. Airways Center.  To give an idea of how comfortable that win was, the Mercury scored only eight points in the fourth quarter. They led by as many as 16 w/ Griner leading the way w/ 26 points. Not surprisingly, the team has turned in, by far, its two best defensive performances since her return.  This is all very bad news for an Atlanta team that I won big on Sunday, 84-76 as 3.5-pt dogs home over the Liberty. But this is on the road & a big step up in class.

Remember how dominant a home team Phoenix has been for the last two seasons. Their one loss here this season was w/o Griner, in double overtime. Last year, they went 16-1 straight up at home. So the odds seem a little bit low for this one, especially since Atlanta has played only four road games to date and allowed an average of 81.2 PPG in them.  Despite finishing in first place in the Eastern Conference a year ago, the Dream went just 6-11 SU in its regular season road games. They lost here in Phoenix by eight points last season, somewhat of wild game, but it was also the second of back to back games for the Mercury.

While I was glad to see the Dream come through for me Sunday, it should be pointed out that it was just the second time all season that they won a game by more than three points.  Now as an underdog, margin of victory doesn't matter.  But what does is the fact this will be their first road game against a top tier team.  I think Atlanta is walking into the proverbial hornet's nest here.  8* Phoenix

10* Calgary (9:05 ET):  The defending Grey Cup champions are off a fairly stunning 29-11 loss to injury-riddled Montreal last week while Toronto has started a surprising 2-0 w/ B2B upsets of Edmonton and Saskatchewan.  I look for order to be restored this week in Western Canada, however, as you may recall the Argos won only two road games all of last season.  Now, we have had a number of close calls already this season in CFL w/ six of the 11 games played to this point decided by four points or less, including the last two. But the home team is 3-0 SU in Wk 3 as well and I'll also remind you that the Stampeders are at home where they typically dominate.  I'm laying the points in this one as the Stamps re-establish themselves as the team to beat in this league.

Toronto should feel quite fortunate to be 2-0.  In the opener, they took advantage of numerous Edmonton miscues (turnovers) en route to a 26-11 victory.  Then, last week, saw them outgained 579-349, only to rally and upset the Rough Riders in OT.  Down 21-11 in the fourth quarter, that game swung on a huge 100-yard INT return for the Argos.  With the season opener having been played at Fort McMurray (technically listed as home game), this is actually the Argos third straight road game.  Their first five games will all be on the road, so we're about to find out if this team is for real or not.  QB Trevor Harris, in for long-time veteran Ricky Ray, has been a major revelation to this point. But can he keep it up?  Certainly, his ridiculous 83.1 completion percentage is going to come down. 

The Stamps could easily be 0-2 as they had to pull out a win over Hamilton in the closing seconds back in Week 1.  I think they were caught off-guard by Montreal's Rakeem Cato last week. The defense should play much better this week than it did last and it certainly helps that Toronto will be w/o slotback Andre Durie.  Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell should also have a big game here considering the Argonauts' D just allowed Saskatchewan's Kevin Glenn to thrown for nearly 500 yards.  This should be a statement game for the Stampeders.  10* Calgary

8* Pittsburgh (8:05 ET):  I really think the Pirates are a lot closer to the Cardinals in terms of talent than most people realize and they've taken advantage of the home field so far in this series w/ wins in two of the three games.  But to actually put a real dent in the division lead, they'll need to take tonight's game as well.  Fortunately, they have a lefty (Francisco Liriano) going as St. Louis' tends to really struggle against southpaws.  These two teams are tied with a major league leading 31 home wins, so home field really does matter here as does the fact the Bucs are coming off a thrilling victory last night in walk-off fashion. St. Louis, after a scorching .667 start through 75 games, has cooled off a bit w/ losses in 8 of their last 13.

Liriano is one of those pitchers where you need to simply disregard the record as he's pitched much better than it indicates. He has a 2.99 ERA and 1.006 WHIP in 17 starts and comes off three straight quality outings where he's allowed only 4 ER total in 20 IP.  He's also allowed only 15 hits during that time.  He's allowed more than three earned runs only three times all season. Unfortunately, one of those was versus the Cardinals, who are 2-0 against him in 2015. But remember St. Louis is only 9-11 vs. lefty starters this year. It also should be pointed out that Liriano went 4-1 w/ a 1.97 ERA in his first 10 career starts vs. the Redbirds. Other than the home field, the key to this series has been Pittsburgh being the one pitching staff that can measure up that of St. Louis'. These two are 1-2 in MLB in runs allowed this season.

The Pirates are now 10-2 their L12 games after last night's thrilling win that took 14 innings to play.  A loss like that can be deflating, especially if you're on the road.  I mentioned the Cardinals' pitching exploits earlier, but unfortunately tonight they have one of their weaker arms going.  This is only start #4 for Tim Cooney, who has an 0-2 team start record here in July as a spot starter.  Though he only allowed one run his last time out, he lasted just 5 1/3 innings.  St. Louis has struggled to win here in Pittsburgh for some time now, going just 7-17 its L24 games here at PNC Park.  8* Pittsburgh

10* Atlanta (3:05 ET): This is both a double revenge and bounce back spot for the Dream, who are not only 0-2 SU/ATS this year vs. New York, but also lost outright their last time out, here at home to Tulsa.  Meanwhile, the Liberty have won three straight, including B2B outright as dogs. That's driven this line down further than it should be and as a result, I'll gladly lay the points w/ the small home favorite.  The line here is considerably smaller than it was in each of the previous two matchups; in fact Atlanta was actually a 6.5-point favorite AT New York in the season opener, which is a massive swing that we must take advantage of here.

Atlanta has not shot the ball particularly well of late, especially in their last game vs. New York where they finished at only 29.7 percent from the floor and matched a season low w/ only 64 points.  In fact, their two worst shooting performances of the season have come against the Liberty.  While NY is third in the league in points allowed (72.0 per game), they've been above that average in the last two games, ironically both wins.  Not surprisingly then, it's been the offense leading the charge in those upsets (84 PPG), which is a number that's due to decline seeing as they rank 9th in the league in scoring for the year.  Also, New York has not won four consecutive games since 2011.

Atlanta is the only team in the East to have a losing record right now, but all hope is not lost as they are only three games out of first place.  While the Dream is playing at home for the third straight time and off four days rest, this is the third straight road game for the Liberty and they've had just two days in between this and their last game.  Overall, New York is not only 5-0 ATS the past five matchups vs. Atlanta, but also 5-0 straight up as they've taken every game outright as dogs. That's quite the streak, and one that's unlikely to continue, in my opinion. The Dream had been favored by at least five points in all five of those matchups, so as you can see there's some real value here in what truly is a big-time revenge spot.  10* Atlanta

8* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET):  The White Sox are a lucky team. You might question that statement considering their sub-.500 record, but the fact they are even sniffing the Mendoza Line should be thrilling to a club that has been outscored by an AL-worst 71 runs so far this season. They've come to the Northside and taken the first two games of this three-game set at Wrigley, but look for the Cubs to avoid the sweep Sunday behind Jake Arrieta. The Sox shocked me w/ a 1-0 win Friday and then had the good fortune of Chris Sale pitching yesterday (I laid off that one). But their luck runs out here as a weak lineup that theoretically should be even weaker (no DH!) catches up w/ them.

Though not named to the team, Arrieta is clearly having an All-Star caliber season. He has a 2.80 ERA and 1.047 WHIP in 17 starts overall and lately has been dealing to the tune of a 1.17 ERA and 0.75 WHIP his last four. Last time out, he was a part of the Cubs' sweep of the Cardinals in a day-night doubleheader, allowing just two runs in 6 2/3 innings.  Ironically, that performance marked the first time in seven outings that he didn't strike out at least six batters. He's in the top 10 in the N.L. in K's and major reason why Cubs' pitching has held opponents to a .236 batting average for the year, best in the big leagues.  The offense really does need to pick it up though, especially considering how the pitching has been even better lately (.224 BA against L7 games).

The White Sox offense has scored the fewest number of runs in all of baseball.  Pitching, Sale in particular, has allowed them to stay within striking distance of .500.  But that can last for only so long.  Again, theoretically, the weak lineup should be even weaker in this series w/ the loss of the DH from the lineup (NL park).  They've scored only six runs in two games and while Sunday's starter Jose Quintana has been pretty solid this season, his numbers aren't so good on the road (4.05 ERA & 1.406 WHIP).  The Cubs have only faced 15 LH starters this season, but have a winning record (9-6) in those games.  The White Sox, despite the B2B wins, still are a lousy road team too (18-27).  Though this series didn't go their way, the Cubs are the better team. 8* Chi Cubs

10* Toronto (2:10 ET):  Barring some sort of historical result Sunday, the Blue Jays will enter the All-Star Break w/ the best run differential in the entire American League. Yet, win or lose here, they'll still be within one game of .500. So, clearly, they've underperformed in the first half.  An offense that leads the rest of MLB by a mile had slowed down in recent days, but re-awoke Saturday in a 6-2 victory over AL Central leading Kansas City.  The Royals have the second best run differential in the AL and had won six straight prior to yday's loss. But the linesmakers have spoken volumes about how they view these teams and I think the team with the better offense, starting pitcher and scoring differential is a great value here. 

I was on Felix Doubront Tuesday as he made a successful 2015 debut, going 6 2/3 innings while allowing just one run. Two-thirds of his pitches were strikes and he fanned six White Sox hitters.  Kansas City had only five hits yday and has scored just five times in the series overall. Pretty quietly, Blue Jays' pitching has allowed three or less runs in four of the last five games. But of course, I have to mention the offense, which has totaled 476 runs so far, which is 75 more than the second highest scoring team. Over roughly 90 games, that's a massive difference.  If run differential truly is a better predictor of future success than a team's actual won-loss record, then the Blue Jays could be in store for a monster second half.

The Royals will give the baseball to Edison Volquez in the final game before the Break and while he's posted solid overall numbers, he's also been winning at a clip that indicates a little bit of good fortune.  He's in the top ten for net units earned (#7), but his ERA is almost a full point higher than many of those above him on the list. Interestingly enough, another Royals pitcher, Jeremy Guthrie, is right behind Volquez in the net unit rankings and actually has even worse numbers. So, while many have rightly pointed out the shortcomings of Toronto's starting rotation, I'm not sold on Kansas City's either. Defense and the bullpen remain the Royals' strong suits, but remember they are w/o Alex Gordon and Volquez has lasted just five innings each of his last two starts. 10* Toronto

10* Boston (1:35 ET):  The Red Sox finally broke through against the Yankees here at Fenway yday, winning for the 1st time at home all season against their main rival. I'm proud to say that I was on them and as mentioned in yday's analysis, the Yankees tend to struggle against lefties. They came into Saturday batting only .242 collectively against southpaws, which is well below their average vs. righties. Lefty Eduardo Rodriguez held them in check yesterday to the tune of two runs and five hits in just over six innings of work and today it's another southpaw, Wade Miley, that's toeing the rubber for Boston. While the revenge angle is no longer in play, the home team would still love nothing more than to go into the Break w/ B2B wins.

Boston is a hot team right now. They've won four straight series and 10 of their last 13 games overall. The Yankees had given them trouble, but w/ the exception of Friday's opener, that damage had come early in the season back when the Red Sox were really struggling.  The offense really picked up in June and now the team is within four games of .500 and 5.5 games of the division lead.  Meanwhile, the Yankees' offense has been trending downward lately as they've averaged just a scant 3.3 runs per game their L12 contests and been at three or less eight times during that span, yday included.  New York also has a losing road record this season and is just barely above profitability despite their first place status.

Miley had a rough start to the year, but has been better of late as four of his previous five outings have been quality.  Last time out, he recorded a season-best nine strikeouts in a 4-3 win over Miami here at home. Overall, the team has won the last five times he's started here at Fenway. The last time they lost a home game w/ him pitching was against the Yankees, but he actually pitched well in that game & has a solid 1.05 WHIP his L3 starts against the Pinstripes.  Starting for the visitors is Nathan Eovaldi, who I simply believe cannot continue to win at his current pace (8-2 in 17 starts) given his 4.45 ERA and 1.527 WHIP for the season. Eovaldi's numbers get even worse on the road, so I see the game and the series going to the Red Sox.  10* Boston