9* Houston (8:05 ET): The Astros clinched the AL West pennant on Thursday by beating the Rays 3-2. Now they can put another race to bed, that being for homefield advantage in the ALDS vs. Chicago, by defeating Oakland on Friday. Having the homefield edge vs. the AL Central champs would be huge for Houston considering Chicago has a vastly inferior record on the road compared to when they play at Guaranteed Rate Field. Throw in a revenge angle for the ‘Stros and this is an easy call tonight. 

So the A’s did sweep Houston last weekend. But that was in Oakland. Unfortunately for the A’s, in the series both before and after that, they were swept by the Mariners. The A’s lost 12 straight times to Seattle this year and that is the reason they are no longer in contention for the Wild Card. With nothing left to play for this weekend, I can’t see them putting up much of a fight. The bottom line is that - outside of their 13-game win streak back in April - the A’s have been a sub-.500 team the rest of the year. 

In the playoffs for a fifth straight season (4th as AL West Champs) and 49-29 at home, Houston will send Framber Valdez to the mound on Friday. This is immediate revenge spot for Valdez as he came out on the losing end of a 2-1 decision against Oakland’s Sean Manaea last weekend. Both pitched masterfully, but I like how Valdez has allowed just one run in his last two starts (13 ⅔ IP) and has a 7-3 TSR at home this season. The Astros are better than the A’s and in addition to the revenge angle, they simply have more to play for right now. It’s that simple. 9* Houston

10* Under Red Sox/Nationals (7:05 ET): An inability to score runs has hurt Boston at the worst possible time as the Red Sox head into the final weekend of the regular season in a tenuous battle for the final playoff spot in the American League. Tied with Seattle and only a game up on Toronto for the second Wild Card, the Red Sox have dropped five of six and scored three runs or less in all five losses. Now they won’t have a DH as they head to Washington for an interleague series against the Nationals.

If you are assuming that a matchup versus a last place team should guarantee the Red Sox success over the weekend, then you better think again. They just dropped two of three to the 100+ loss Orioles, a series where every game went Under the total. The Under is 5-0 in Boston’s last five games overall. I’m a little shocked that the total is so high for tonight’s game, considering we’re playing under “NL rules.” The Under is also 19-5-2 the last 26 times the Red Sox have been road favorites (as they are here). 

I like taking the Under when you’ve got two lefties on the mound, especially in Interleague play. It’s not like the hitters are all that familiar with either starting pitcher in this game. Boston’s Eduardo Rodriguez has never faced the Nats before and Washington’s Jesse Rogers has never faced the Red Sox before. Rodriguez has a 2.94 ERA his L3 starts while Rogers is at 2.08. The Nationals could only score 11 runs in three games at Coors Field this week and are 14-5 Under following an off day. 10* Under Red Sox/Nationals

7* Athletic Bilbao (3:00 ET): Perhaps the most shocking result of the La Liga season (so far) took place last week when Alaves, then at the foot of the table, scored its first win by shocking reigning champs Atletico Madrid 1-0. The lone goal came early (4th minute) and somehow that was enough, despite Alaves losing the possession battle by a very wide margin (71-29%). I simply cannot see this bottom of the table side scoring a positive result two weeks in a row, so it’s an easy decision to fade here. 

Athletic Club will certainly take Alaves more seriously given what transpired last week. The fact Bilbao has picked up only two points from its last three matches, one of them coming in a 1-1 draw with Valencia last week, will also have them hungry on Friday. This is a team that started the season strong and still only has suffered one defeat, which came in the closing seconds of stoppage time against Rayo Vallecano. Honestly, getting them below -200 on the ML at home seems like a steal. 

Bilbao is rightly considered a middle of the table side as they are currently in 10th, the same place they finished last season. But they’ve only conceded four goals all season, the fewest for any team that’s played seven matches (Sevilla and Villarreal have conceded 2 and 3 goals, respectively, in six matches). Alaves’ goal last week was just their second of the La Liga season, tied for the fewest with winless Getafe. Adding to the favorite’s motivation are some less than desirable results vs. Alaves in previous seasons. They roll here at home. 7* Athletic Bilbao

9* Cagliari (2:45 ET): One of only two Serie A sides still without win, Cagliari will be desperate for the three points on Friday as they host the side right above them in the table, recently promoted Venezia. Though two points up on Cagliari, thanks to a win and a draw, Venezia actually has the lower expected point total (xPts) and also occupies a place in the relegation zone. I’m betting that Cagliari finally gets into the win column here. 

It’s a short week for Venezia, who just played Monday and drew 1-1 with Torino. That should work against them here as they have to hit the road where they’ve already lost three of four this season while being outscored 8-2. I did not expect much from I Lagunari in 2021/22 as they finished 5th in Serie B last season only to go on a somewhat miraculous run in the Promotion Playoff. Their lone win of this campaign came against another newly promoted side, Empoli, three weeks ago. 

Cagliari lost to Empoli 2-0 two weeks ago and then went down by that same score against the current first place team in Serie A (that being Napoli) last week. They were fairly competitive against Napoli with one of the two goals conceded coming on a penalty. Cagliari has drawn twice, once away against Lazio, so they’ve shown they will compete for new manager Walter Mazzari. There is potential to pick up points each of the next three fixtures, but it must start here by getting the full three. 9* Cagliari

7* FC Koln (2:30 ET): As I’ve written many times before, I don’t think there’s a worse side in any of Europe’s “Big 4” leagues (EPL, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A) than Greuther Furth. Currently occupying the foot of the table, it figures to be a “one and done” stay in the German top flight for the recently promoted side. They still have zero wins and have taken only one point from six matches. Their -12 goal differential is also the worst in the Bundesliga. 

Koln needed to win the relegation playoff back in May just to remain in the top flight, but this season has gotten off to a promising start. Currently on a four-match unbeaten run, the Billy Goats have climbed to seventh in the table with nine points and a positive goal differential (+2). They’ve only lost one time this season and it was a close one (3-2) to the class of the league, Bayern Munich, where Koln fought back from a 2-0 deficit. Now they have played to a 1-1 draw each of their last three times on the pitch. But this sets up as the easiest fixture of 2021/22.

Greuther Furth, as expected, lost to Bayern Munich last week. But what made the 3-1 defeat especially embarrassing is that Bayern was down a man for basically the entire second half and still scored (on an own goal!) This is only the second season Furth has ever competed in the Bundesliga and they finished last the first time (in 2013). They’ve yet to win a single match since earning promotion back in May, lost to an amateur side in the DFB Pokal and that lone Bundesliga point came at the expense of another side (Bielefeld) that was down to 10 men. Koln gets the full three (points) here. 7* FC Koln

10* San Francisco (9:45 ET): The Giants can ill-afford to “slip up” in the final days of the regular season as the Dodgers continue to breath down their necks in the race for the NL West pennant and homefield advantage throughout the postseason. Fortunately, they are still facing an Arizona team that they have absolutely beat up on all season long. Yesterday’s 1-0 win gives SF a 16-2 head to head record with the D’backs in 2021. They’ll win again tonight. 

San Francisco has been the biggest money-makers in MLB this season, which makes sense given they have the best overall record and weren’t expected to be THIS good. Still, being up 44.6 units for an entire season is very impressive. No team in the L20 seasons has been that profitable. On the flip side, Arizona has been the worst team to bet on in 2021 as they are -39.7 units, including a horrendous 20-60 on the road. They are 0-8 in San Francisco this year. 

In this price range, the D’backs are basically “unplayable.” They’ve gone 5-30 as a road dog of +175 to +250. They are also 2-13 following a shutout loss. It’ll be a familiar face to Giants’ fans pitching for Arizona tonight as Madison Bumgarner toes the rubber for the visitors. MadBum’s best days are clearly behind him at this point as the former Giant has given up 5+ runs three times in his last five starts. It doesn’t help that the D’backs offense has been shutout twice in the L3 games and scored zero runs off Giants’ starters in this series. Unless you are Scott Kazmir, who starts tonight for SF. 10* San Francisco

8* Jacksonville (8:20 ET): Urban Meyer’s Jaguars are 0-3 with all three losses coming by double digits. Not even the longest TD in NFL history, a 109-yard return of a missed FG, could get the Jags inside the number against the Cardinals last week. It’s now 18 straight losses for the franchise, a streak that obviously predates Meyer’s tenure here, and the last six have all been by 10+ points. But I believe the Jags are due to keep ONE close. I see that happening this Thursday night against a Bengals team unaccustomed to the role of favorites. 

Cincinnati is 2-1 but has not been favored in a single game so far. Even Jacksonville was favored once, back in Week 1. In fact, the Bengals have only been favored three times in the last three seasons and they lost two of the games outright! This season’s two wins have come against Minnesota and Pittsburgh, but they were outgained in both games and needed OT to get by the Vikings. The offense has failed to even gain 300 total yards in each of the L2 games. They also lost to the Bears in Week 2. 

What I’m saying here is that the Bengals should not be trusted as this large of a favorite. Especially on a short week. One would have to go back to the “height” of the Andy Dalton/Marvin Lewis era to find the last time a Bengals team was laying more than seven points at the betting window. The lookahead line was much shorter and I’m just not ready to buy into Cincy yet. Trevor Lawrence just needs to cut down on the interceptions and the Jags will at least keep it close. 8* Jacksonville

10* Over Virginia/Miami FL (7:30 ET): Miami was ranked #14 in the preseason, but “The U” has failed to impress so far. Their only wins have come against Appalachian State (by two) and FCS Central Connecticut State. Blowout losses to Alabama and Michigan State dropped the ‘Canes out of the rankings entirely and now they are playing without QB D’Eriq King. But I do think they’re going to be able to put a substantial number of points on the board this week. They scored 69 last week without King and now face a defense that’s given up 96 points the last two games. 

Virginia’s offense has put up over 1,000 yards in the last two games, but that hasn’t been enough as the woeful defense surrendered 1,173 yards and they lost both games by 20 points! North Carolina blitzed them for 59 points and almost 700 yards. The Cavaliers outgained Wake Forest last Thursday, but that didn’t matter in a 37-17 loss. The defense let the Demon Deacons score on each of its first seven possessions! Again, no matter who is in at QB tonight for Miami, they are going to be able to move the ball and score. 

But Virginia can obviously move the ball as well. QB Brennan Armstrong has already twice set a career-high in passing yardage this season. In fact, he set a school record with 554 yards vs. UNC. This is the nation’s top passing offense (430.5 YPG) and Armstrong also leads his team in rushing (552 yards in four games). Look for the Hoos to score far more than they did LW vs. Wake when they had four 30+ yard drives end with no points (two went 67+ yds). Both defenses have given up 37+ points twice, so I'm surprised both teams are 3-1 Under. This has “shootout” written all over it. 10* Over Virginia/Miami FL

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The Mets were my one loss last night and it was a frustrating one at that. They led 2-0 entering the 8th inning against a Marlins team that had lost its last seven games. But a three-run rally by the visitors put an end to that losing streak and here we are Thursday with both teams simply playing for what little pride they have left. It must be pointed out that the Mets outhit the Marlins yday, 9-5, but hit into three costly double plays. 

Let’s also not forget that the Mets swept Tuesday’s doubleheader, holding Miami to just three runs in 16 innings of play (the second game went to extras). The Marlins’ offense remains a MAJOR question mark as they have scored only 11 runs total in the L6 games. As I said yday, Citi Field is just not the place where they are likely to turn things around at the plate. The one thing the Mets have consistently done well this season is limit scoring at home. They give up only 3.5 runs per game here. 

Only the Dodgers and Rays, two of the best teams in baseball, have given up fewer runs at home than the Mets this season. Veteran lefty Rich Hill should have no problem shutting down a Marlins lineup that fielded six rookies yesterday. Miami is 4-16 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +175. The Mets are 12-5 as home favorites of -175 to -250 and should get to Edward Cabrera, who has an 0-3 TSR on the road for Miami with a 6.75 ERA and 1.781 ERA in those three starts. 8* NY Mets

10* Marseille (3:00 ET): This is a pretty crucial three points for host Marseille, who has claimed just one victory in their last four competitions and has a tough upcoming stretch of fixtures. They’re off their first loss of the season in Ligue 1 and an underwhelming 1-1 draw against Lokomotiv Moscow before that in the opener of the Europa League group stage. But I see Les Olympiens bouncing back this week against an underdog that’s off a pretty shocking win in its Europa League opener. 

Few gave Galatasaray much of a shot at beating Lazio two weeks ago, however the Turkish side stunned their Serie A opponent 1-0. Now the difference was an own goal by Lazio in the 66th minute. So we shouldn’t give Galatasaray too much credit for opening Group E play with a win. Furthermore, they have displayed poor form recently in the Super Lig, needing two second half goals on Sunday to overcome Goztepe and avert what would have been a third straight loss on the domestic front. 

I think the biggest key to this match though is the fact it takes place on French soil. Marseille has lost just once in its last 12 home fixtures, that being Sunday’s 3-2 loss to Lens. But even in defeat they continued a streak that has seen them score at least twice in every home fixture this season. Two goals here would be far too much to overcome for Galatasaray, who is winless in its last 19 away matches in the Champions and Europa Leagues with 15 losses and four draws. All signs point to Marseille rolling on Thursday afternoon. 10* Marseille

8* Under Angels/Rangers (2:05 ET): The Angels and Rangers wrap up a three-game series in Arlington this afternoon. So far, each team has prevailed one time. The Rangers took the opener 5-2 and then the Halos bounced back last night to win 7-2, thanks to Shohei Ohtani. I’m going to go ahead and predict this will be the lowest scoring game of this series. Before yesterday, six of the previous seven meetings had stayed Under the total. The Under is on a 5-1 run for Texas if they allow 5+ runs in the previous game. 

Alex Cobb gets the start Thursday afternoon for the Angels. Besides Ohtani, Cobb has been the team’s best starting pitcher this season. He has allowed 1 or 0 ER in six consecutive starts and has a 1.15 ERA in the last three. Texas is by far the lowest scoring team in the American League (3.8 rpg) so this matchup seems well-suited to continue Cobb’s recent strong run. When he inevitably departs, I’ll remain confident as last night the LA bullpen retired the final 12 hitters in order with seven strikeouts. 

Last night was also just the second time in 10 games that the Angels finished with 10 or more hits. So they are no offensive juggernaut either. In nine of their last 16 games, they’ve scored three runs or less. I thought that rookie Glenn Otto, who starts for Texas tonight, pitched pretty well in his last outing. He gave up only two runs in five innings of work. The problem was the Rangers didn’t score any runs themselves. At least here, Otto is facing a team that averages less than 4.0 runs in day games. 8* Under Angels/Rangers

8* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): The White Sox have already clinched the AL Central, but still have something left to play for. That would be home field advantage in the LDS against whomever wins the AL West, which will almost certainly be Houston. Entering today, the Sox still trail the ‘Stros by 2.5 games as both teams won Tuesday. Here in Chicago, it was a very comfortable 7-1 win for the home team. They’ve now won five of six and I look for them to continue rolling tonight against a Reds team that was just eliminated from playoff contention yesterday. 

For a while there, it looked as if Cincinnati was going to earn the National League’s second Wild Card. They overtook San Diego, who was seemingly their only competition. But then the Cardinals came out of nowhere, have now won 17 straight, and will be the NL’s 2nd WC team. So the Reds have to be pretty deflated coming into today’s game. They’d won four in a row before getting held to four hits last night. So they were trying. I just can’t see them having much left to offer in these last remaining games. 

 After starting rookies each of the L2 games, the Reds turn to veteran Sonny Gray on Wednesday. The problem is that Gray has a 4.33 ERA in September now he has to deal with a lineup that has a DH, something that wasn’t the case in any of those previous four starts. I know that Tony LaRussa may have a short leash with Carlos Rodon as the White Sox righty has been dealing with arm fatigue. But the White Sox will score enough to improve to 51-27 at home this year. 8* Chi White Sox

8* Minnesota (7:40 ET): Really, the only thing Detroit had left to play for was ending a streak of four consecutive losing seasons. Well, they are now assured of a fifth straight losing campaign after falling 3-2 last night here in Minnesota. The loss was the Tigers’ third in a row, all of which have come by one run. It’s probably a bit deflating in the clubhouse knowing they can no longer reach .500 for the year, so I’ll fade them in this one as Minnesota hopes to continue their own climb back to respectability. 

Now the Twins are also going to finish with a losing record. It’s a far cry from the L2 seasons when they captured the AL Central pennant. Injuries really derailed their season early on and the fact the team is -24.9 units YTD further illustrates just how far short they fell of preseason expectations. But lately things have been better. They’ve been a .500 team since August and won series against all three American League division leaders. They are 5-2 the L7 games overall. 

Detroit has been very careful with its young pitchers down the stretch. Today’s starter Casey Mize has been limited to no more than three innings in his last four outings and the team has lost the last three. Mize’s ERA in those L3 starts is 5.62, which is a lot different than the Twins’ Michael Pineda, who is 3-0 with a 2.30 ERA his L3 starts. He’s allowed 3 ER or less in every start since coming off the IL. Additionally, his lone start vs. the Tigers this year went well as the righty allowed just two runs and five hits over 6 IP. The Twins don’t want to finish in last place and a strong finish likely gets them out of the AL Central basement.  8* Minnesota

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): Both the Mets and Marlins had lost five in a row coming into this series. It was not guaranteed that one of the two losing streaks would continue yesterday, as the NL East rivals faced off in a doubleheader. But one day later, here we are and the Marlins have now dropped seven in a row. Highlighted by Noah Syndergaard’s return to the mound (following a two-year absence), the Mets swept Tuesday’s DH, winning by scores of 5-2 and 2-1. I think they are going to win again tonight. 

Miami’s offense has been virtually non-existent during this losing streak. They’ve been held to three runs or less in six of the seven games and Citi Field is simply an unlikely place for them to turn things around at the plate. That’s because the one thing the Mets have consistently done well this year is limit the opposition from scoring at home. They give up an average of only 3.5 rpg here. Only the Dodgers and Rays, who have two of the three best records in baseball, have allowed fewer runs at home in 2021. 

I had an O/U play set for the first game yesterday, but a late Miami pitching change turned that into a no-action. The Mets’ decision to go with Syndergaard in the second game was also a late call. Here, the teams seem fully committed to their respective starters, Elieser Hernandez and Taijuan Walker. Hernandez simply hasn’t pitched well enough for Miami to make you think he can overcome the team’s offensive woes. He allowed 3 HR’s in his last start. Walker has also struggled, but is much better at home. The Marlins have one of the worst road records in the league (24-55). 8* NY Mets

10* Zenit St. Petersburg (12:45 ET): When this year’s Champions League draw was first announced, I don’t think that there was any doubt as to whom the two favorites were in Group H. Both Juventus as well as reigning UCL holders Chelsea are widely expected to move on to the Round of 16, leaving the other two sides - Zenit St. Petersberg & Malmo - to fight for the “scraps” of the Europa League or simply hope for a miracle. Those two will meet here and I think - as the linesmakers do - that ZSP has the clear edge. 

Current leader and three time defending champs of the Russian Premier League, Zenit St. Petersburg extended their unbeaten run on the domestic side to 18 straight matches with a come from behind 2-1 victory Krylya Sovetov last weekend. They weren’t as fortunate in the Champions League opener, losing that to 1-0 to Chelsea. They were even for 68 minutes though and ZSP shouldn’t hold its collective head over not scoring a goal. In all of Europe, there probably isn’t a tougher side to score on than Thomas Tuchel’s Blues. 

Not surprisingly, ZSP is the highest scoring team in the Russian Premier League. They also proved themselves to be a tough “nut” to crack against Chelsea. This is a huge drop in class facing reigning Swedish champs Malmo, who are probably just “happy to be here” and not expected to take any points in the Group Stage. Consider that they have lost their L4 UCL fixtures by an aggregate score of 20-0! That’s the most goals conceded by any side over a four-match stretch in the history of this competition. They lost 3-0 to Juventus in this year’s opener. If ZSP is to have ANY chance of challenging the top two in Group H, they must take the full three points here. I think they will. 10* Zenit St. Petersburg

9* Oakland (10:10 ET): I simply have no words for what has happened to the A’s at the hands of the Mariners over the last week. The teams have met five times. Seattle has won all five. So that’s now TEN straight head to head losses for Oakland in this AL West rivalry. For Seattle, that ties a team record for most consecutive wins against a single opponent. This MUST come to an end. 

What’s even more remarkable about these results against Seattle is that Oakland is 8-0 its L8 games when NOT facing the Mariners! In between these last five losses, they swept the division leading Astros, which is pretty impressive! I continue to dig my heels in that they are the better team here. Over the course of 2021, they have a +65 run differential. Seattle’s run differential is -52, which gives them an expected win total that’s 14 games less than their actual win total. I’ve beaten it into the ground at this point, but no team has overachieved more this season. The Mariners, in my opinion, are far more lucky than they are good. 

I still believe that luck will run out and Seattle will not make the playoffs. I’m too big of a believer in run differential being a reliable metric to think otherwise. Originally, the M’s were going to start All Star Yusei Kikuchi tonight, but instead they’ve opted to make this a “bullpen game” with Tyler Anderson opening. The last time Anderson pitched, he gave up nine runs in two innings. Their own playoff hopes hanging on by a thread, the A’s MUST take advantage of this change. Chris Bassitt, 12-4 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.039 WHIP this season, will make his second start for the A’s since returning from a serious injury. He threw three shutout innings against the Mariners last week. This is the biggest revenge game of 'em all. 9* Oakland

9* Milwaukee (7:45 ET): The next stop on our “revenge” tour takes us to St. Louis. The Cardinals are the hottest team in baseball right now as a franchise record 16-game win streak has propelled them to the cusp of making the playoffs as the second Wild Card. With a 5.5-game edge over the field, it’s a virtual lock that the Redbirds will be facing either the Giants or Dodgers in the NL WC Game next week. But as hot as they’ve been (this is the longest win streak by any team in 2021), I’m going to predict a loss on Tuesday. 

Milwaukee has already punched its postseason ticket by virtue of winning the NL Central. They will be the #2 seed and await the NL East Champ in the LDS. As hot as St. Louis has been, the Brewers still are seven games better this season. The revenge angle stems from them getting swept at home by the Cards just last week. There are two key factors which lead me to believe this game is going to the Brew Crew. 

One is that the Brewers are simply better on the road. They are 49-26 away from Miller Park and +1.7 rpg, which is fantastic. The second key factor is Brandon Woodruff starting. Woodruff did not deserve to lose to the Cardinals last week as he allowed just one run and two hits over six innings. He also had 10 strikeouts. I know Adam Wainwright has been hot for St. Louis (7-0 TSR L7 starts). But it is Woodruff who has the better overall numbers over the course of the season. 9* Milwaukee

9* Pittsburgh (6:35 ET): It’s obviously not been a good season in Pittsburgh, but yesterday was an exceptionally poor effort, even by Pirates’ standards. The team got beat 13-1 at home by the Reds, which drops them to 40 games below .500. But the theme of this three-pack is “revenge” and because of that I will back the Bucs on Tuesday in one of the rare times they are actually favored on the ML. 

The Pirates have revenge here as they’ve been swept two straight times by the Cubs. The more recent of the two series took place earlier this month at Wrigley Field and three of the four Cubs’ wins were by just one run. The Cubs may be 12-4 vs. the Pirates this year, but 12 of those games were played before June and they come into this series ice cold. They’ve lost six straight and 13 of the last 15 games. St. Louis swept them over the weekend at Wrigley. 

A bad loss yesterday and seven straight losses to the Cubs should have the home team supremely motivated today. I understand that taking the Pirates seems risky. But the Cubs are 28-47 on the road. The Pirates look to have the edge in today’s pitching matchup as Mitch Keller has allowed 2 ER or less in five of his last seven starts, including six shutout innings vs the Cubs on 9/2. Chicago’s Alec Mills gave up seven runs the last time he started and is 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA in eight career appearances vs. the Pirates. 9* Pittsburgh

10* Under Marlins/Mets (4:10 ET): Two cold teams that typically don’t hit well to begin with are playing a seven-inning game. Both the Marlins and Mets enter this series on five-game losing streaks. Miami scored just five runs in its last series while the Mets scored only six in theirs. The last two times these teams played, they combined for three and five runs and those were nine-inning games. So, yeah, I’m taking the Under in Game 1 of this Tuesday doubleheader. 

No park has seen a fewer total number of runs scored than Citi Field has this season. The average per game is just 7.3 and again, this game is shorter than usual. Not only are the Mets the lowest scoring home team in the majors this season (3.7 rpg), they allow the third fewest runs per game at home (3.6). The fact Miami only averages 3.8 rpg on the road (26th) further strengthens my belief in how this game will go.

There’s a good chance the Mets will only come up to bat six times. That’s because they are heavily favored and likely to be ahead going into the last inning. Marcus Stroman obviously has a heavy influence on this line. The Under is 10-3 in his 13 home starts and he has a 2.13 career ERA vs. Miami. Not to be overlooked though is Trevor Rogers, who gets the starting nod for the Marlins. He has a 1.20 ERA in three career starts vs. the Mets. His numbers this season are right on par with Stroman’s, 10* Under Marlins/Mets

10* Oakland (10:10 ET): I’m pushing all my “chips” to the middle with this one. It’s completely ridiculous that the A’s have lost nine straight times to the Mariners. The teams have very similar records (M’s 86-70, A’s 85-71). It’s also beyond comprehension that Seattle is still in playoff contention, given that they have been outscored by 61 runs this season. They have *15* more wins than expected based on that run differential, easily making them MLB’s biggest overachiever this season. No other team has outperformed its expected win total by more than six games! 

After getting swept at home by Seattle last week, the A’s had a GREAT weekend, turning in their own series sweep. And it was against the Astros, the team with the best run differential in the American League! They allowed just six runs in the series and pitching hasn’t been a problem in the past vs. Seattle. The Mariners have only scored a grand total of 42 runs in their nine-game run against the A’s. This isn’t that surprising considering the M’s are dead last in MLB in team batting average (.225), 28th in OBP (.301), 26th in slugging (.384) and 27th in OPS. For the season, they are batting just .210 at home! 

So I expect a strong start from Cole Irvin tonight. The A’s southpaw is REALLY due for a win over Seattle as he’s 0-4 against them this year. Irvin has allowed 3 ER or less in nine of his last 10 starts overall. Meanwhile, Chris Flexen should feel rather fortunate to have a 20-9 TSR for the Mariners. Oakland has better offensive numbers on the road than they do at home. So expect them to score more in this series than they did last week. Remember that the A’s are in WC contention, just like the Mariners. They WILL take tonight’s series opener. 10* Oakland

8* Colorado (8:40 ET): The Rockies had the unenviable task of facing the Dodgers and Giants last week. They ended up going 1-5 in those games, losing two of three to the Dodgers and getting swept by the Giants over the weekend. Being in the same division with baseball’s only two 100+ win teams really stinks if you’re Colorado, but thankfully they are done facing them this year. The final home series of the 2021 season is against the last place Nationals, who the Rockies beat twice (in three tries) earlier this month. 

That series win over the Nats was in D.C. At home, the Rockies are a whole heck of a lot better. They sport a 46-32 record at Coors Field this season as opposed to a 25-52 record on the road. Keep in mind that the home mark was even better before the Dodgers and Giants came to town. Colorado has won more than two-thirds of its home games this year when NOT facing either of those two teams. Washington is 29-49 on the road after losing three straight in Cincinnati over the weekend. 

There’s big pitching mismatch on Monday with German Marquez going against Josiah Gray. Usually, Rockies’ pitchers don’t perform better at home than they do on the road. But Marquez has a 14-3 team start record at Coors this year with a 3.49 ERA and 1.153 WHIP. The team is 4-0 his L4 starts overall. Despite the fact he didn’t pitch well in Washington on 9/17, Marquez’s team got the ‘W’ over Gray and the Nationals. The Rockies are 36-14 L50 as a home favorite of -125 to -175, including 14-3 this season. 8* Colorado

10* Under Eagles/Cowboys (8:20 ET): Sometime during the course of today, you’ll probably hear that seven of the NFL’s eight primetime games have gone Over the total. I had the one Under, which was Thursday’s Carolina-Houston game. There have been a lot of high-powered offenses featured in these primetime games, which makes sense as that is who the NFL wants on national TV. But when I think “high-powered” I don’t necessarily think of the Jalen Hurts-led Eagles. I’m taking the Under on MNF. 

The Cowboys have a high-powered offense, but here they’ll be facing an Eagles’ defense that has surrendered a total of 23 points in two games. Philly is allowing just 4.4 yards per play and 283 yards per game. The teams they’ve faced - Atlanta and San Francisco - certainly aren’t terrible offensive teams. Both games also stayed Under. Going back to the middle of last season, the Under is 9-3 in the Eagles’ last 12 games. I think this defense can do a good job of holding Dallas in check tonight. The Cowboys only scored 20 points in last week’s win over the Chargers. 

This is Dallas’ 1st home game of the season and they’re hoping the recent trend continues of the home team dominating this NFC East rivalry. The home team is 5-0 SU the L5 meetings. I think the Cowboys defense is going to play better than expected tonight. Hurts only completed 12 passes last week and just one to a WR after the 1Q. The Eagles have not scored more than 23 points in any of the previous four meetings with the Cowboys. 10* Under Eagles/Cowboys

8* Celta Vigo (3:00 ET): After picking up its first win of the campaign, Celta Vigo will now face one of the three La Liga sides that still has a zero in the win column. Granada is dead last in the league in xPts, though they’ve drawn three times. Certainly neither of these teams expected to be this close to the foot of the table, but with just three points after six matches, Granada is 18th and in the relegation zone. Celta is just one point ahead of them, in 17th place. So the three points on the line here are huge. I think the home team gets them.

Celta Vigo finished a very respectable 8th in the La Liga table last season. That was just five points behind European qualifier Villarreal. I did expect the Sky Blues to regress some in 2021/22, but not to this degree. Looking through the previous run of fixtures, it’s not hard to see why Celta is off to a slow start. So far they have faced Atletico Madrid, Athletic Club and Real Madrid. They drew with a tough Osasuna team. I was surprised by the loss to Cadiz, but then finally they got on the board with a 2-0 win over Levante last week. The upcoming schedule seems favorable, with this match being followed by a date with Elche. So I expect Celta to start moving up the table.

Granada finished seventh and ninth the last two years in La Liga, so they too are scratching their heads a bit. After opening 2021/22 with draws against Villarreal and Valencia, the Red and Whites have lost three of four. The draw was against Barcelona, which seems impressive but they were dominated in terms of possession in that match. It was the same thing in a 3-2 loss to Real Sociedad midweek. This is now Granada’s third match in the last seven days and they come in sporting the joint worst defensive record in La Liga (11 goals allowed). They’ve failed to score in three of the previous five meetings with Celta and lost 3-1 here last season.  8* Celta Vigo

10* Boston (7:08 ET): The Red Sox have now lost five in a row to the Yankees and are tied with them in the Wild Card race. Now both teams can make the playoffs and then face each other in the WC Game. But homefield advantage for said WC Game is still at stake plus you’ve got Toronto and Seattle both lurking not far behind, looking to steal one of the WC spots. This head to head rivalry has taken a dramatic swing in the second half of the season as the Red Sox had won 10 of the first 13 meetings. I’ll take them to avoid the sweep Sunday night as a big play.

It sure looked as if the Red Sox were headed for victory Saturday night. They led 2-1 entering the 8th, which was when disaster (for them) struck and Giancarlo Stanton hit a grand slam. Thus a perfectly good start from Nick Pivetta was wasted. The Yankees finished with only four hits for the game, but when one of them results in four runs scoring, sometimes that’s all you need. Still, you can’t help but feel the home team “should have won.”

The Yankees have won five in a row overall but so had the Red Sox coming into this series. The Sox are 49-31 at Fenway this season while averaging 5.9 runs per game. No team averages more rpg at home. Southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez has a 3.64 ERA since Aug 1. But most important of all, he has a 4-0 TSR this year vs. the Yankees. Meanwhile, I’m not that impressed by how few runs that Yankees starter Jordan Montgomery has given up recently as more often than not, he doesn’t go that deep into games. He has an 0-2 TSR vs. Baltimore this month & a 1-3 TSR vs. Boston in 2021. 10* Boston

10* NY Jets (4:05 ET): The Jets are not being given much of a chance in this game, and for good reason, but make note of the fact they did outgained New England pretty significantly last week (336-260) despite losing on the scoreboard 25-6. Growing pains were obviously expected here with a rookie coach (Robert Saleh) and QB (Zach Wilson), but the team does need to show SOMETHING this week in Denver. It’s a big spread and I feel comfortable taking the points against an opponent unaccustomed to being this large of a favorite.

Denver was the only team in the league not to be favored a single time in 2020. This year has seen them favored on the road each of the first two games and now laying double digits in the home opener. How rare is this? It’s the first time the Broncos have been double digit favorites since a 2017 game vs. the Giants that they lost outright by 13 points! QB Teddy Bridgewater has an outstanding career ATS mark (37-15-1) but has NEVER been a double digit favorite before. The largest spread he’s faced previous to this one was laying eight points against Carolina in 2018 when he was with the Saints. He lost that game outright.

The biggest problem for the Jets last week was four turnovers. That’s how they lost by 19 despite holding an edge in total yards. In what promises to be a low-scoring game, I think grabbing the points is prudent. Denver has not started 3-0 since 2016. They’ve only averaged 25 points the first two games and despite two double digit wins, this isn’t a team that’s normally going to win big. 0-2 ATS teams have covered at a 60% rate in Week 3 over the last decade. 10* NY Jets

8* Miami (4:05 ET): The fact there’s been no real line movement since it was announced that Jacoby Brissett would be starting in place of the injured Tua Tagovailoa says a lot. Surprisingly, the line has even come down a bit. I thought the opening number was a bit of an overreaction to Las Vegas’ 2-0 start, which has seen them upset the Ravens and Steelers. This game was listed as pick ‘em on the lookahead line. Miami is a perfect 6-0 ATS off its L6 SU losses and 10-1 ATS after giving up 30+ points. Take the points.

I really don’t think that the dropoff from Tua to Brissett is that severe. Sure, the Dolphins lost 35-0 last week at home to Buffalo. But Brissett was obviously not expecting to play. Now he gets a full week of practice to face a Raiders’ defense that gave up the second most touchdowns in the entire league last year and over 30 PPG. Vegas is a little lucky to be 2-0 as they beat Baltimore in OT and then Pittsburgh suffered multiple key injuries on defense. This is the first time the Raiders have been favored in 2021. They are just 3-7 ATS L10 as chalk with four outright losses.

Miami is 9-4 ATS as a road underdog under Brian Flores. They have also won 10 of the last 12 meetings vs. the Raiders, including seven of the last eight. Last year, they pulled out a last second 26-25 win to officially eliminate Vegas from playoff contention. I’m just very skeptical of this Raiders team and it’s hard for me to see them moving to 3-0. The Dolphins’ defense will keep them in this game. 8* Miami  

8* Washington (1:00 ET): The Football Team is 0-2 ATS as a favorite so far, but let’s try them as a dog this week. They did prevail on the field last Thursday, getting a gift from the inept Giants, who were offsides on the first game-winning FG attempt. After missing that first attempt, Washington kicker Dustin Hopkins then made the G-Men pay on his second try, putting the 43-yarder through the uprights and giving Washington a 30-29 win. I was impressed with the play of QB Taylor Heinicke, who completed 34 of 46 passes for 336 yards and two touchdowns in his first start in place of the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick.

This will be the Bills’ second straight week facing a backup QB. But I think it’s pretty obvious that Heinicke is better than Jacoby Brissett, who was called into emergency duty last week (Tua injured) as Buffalo blitzed Miami 35-0. Remember that Heinicke started last season’s playoff game for Washington and threw for 300+ yards against eventual Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay. The Football Team has also had a few extra days to prepare for this game compared to the Bills. That will help Heinicke.

The “mini-bye” should also help a Washington defense that’s gotten off to a surprisingly slow start. This was one of the best defenses in the league a year ago. I know Buffalo scored five touchdowns last week, but three of those drives were 52 yards or shorter. Josh Allen is completing just 56% of his passes so far and is 27th in yards. The Bills’ offensive line was overwhelmed against the Steelers and the Football Team is capable of doing the same. Washington is 4-1 ATS its L5 games as a dog, so this role suits them well. They’ve won three of those five games outright. Take the points. 8* Washington

8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Urban Meyer is looking for answers right now as he’s off to an 0-2 start in his professional head coaching career. Jacksonville has lost 17 games in a row going back to last season, the last six all coming by double digits. Now virtually all of that predates Meyer’s tenure here. However, the legendary college coach can certainly ill-afford a third straight DD loss. Predictably, the public is all over the other side (Arizona) in this matchup but I’m seeing some value with the home dog getting more than a touchdown. Take the points.

I understand that taking Jacksonville right now may cause you to hold your nose. But the idea of Arizona laying this many points on the road should bolster your confidence. It’s extremely rare to find the Cardinals as this size of a road favorite. Going all the way back to 1993, it’s happened only TWO times! Situationally, it’s not a great spot for the Cards either as this is their second trip to the Southeast in the first three weeks and they’ve got a big division road game next week at the Rams.

There’s no denying how good Kyler Murray has looked in the first two games, but the Cardinals were very lucky to defeat Minnesota 34-33 last week. The Vikings missed a “chip shot” field goal on the final play of the game to seal the deal. I had the Vikes plus the points (they obviously covered) as Arizona dropped to 3-10 ATS its L13 games as a favorite in any setting. The Jags fall into several key angles that are 60% ATS or better, long term. 8* Jacksonville

8* Rayo Vallecano (12:30 ET): The three newly promoted sides in La Liga are all faring better than you’d expect. But Rayo Vallecano is clearly faring the best of the three. Los Vellecanos currently sit sixth in the table, which would be good enough for Europa League qualifying at season’s end, with 10 points taken from the first six matches. After their return to the Spanish top flight began with understandable losses to Sevilla and Real Sociedad, Vallecano is unbeaten its last four and coming off B2B wins. 

Cadiz earned promotion last season and really surprised me with a 12th place finish. The advance metrics clearly said they were fortunate to be a mid-table side as Los Piratas actually finished with the second fewest expected point total (xPts) in the league. I pegged them to regress back towards the relegation zone before this season got underway and again am a bit perplexed at how competitive they’ve been. They just drew Barcelona (0-0) midweek after earning a 2-1 win over Celta Vigo last Friday. 

That said, the win over Celta Vigo represents Cadiz’s lone victory this season. They were dominated in terms of possession by Barca and fortunate that their opponents were down to 10 men after Frenkie de Jong was sent off (red card) in the 65 minutes. So for roughly one-third of the match, Cadiz had a man advantage on the pitch and still couldn’t net a goal. Vallecano didn't get the game-winner until the 96th minute against Athletic Club, but had previously left nothing to chance in dominant wins over Getafe and Granada. They are clearly the better side here and will nab the full three points. 8* Rayo Vallecano

7* Alexander Volkanovski (11:50 ET): This is the main event of UFC 266, scheduled for five rounds between Featherweight Champion Volkanovski and challenger Brian Ortega. Volkanovski is 22-1 overall in his career including a perfect 9-0 in the UFC. Ortega is 15-1 overall and 7-1 in the UFC. I look for the champ to retain Saturday night with a convincing victory. 

Volkanovski is the superior striker here, which should be the difference. Granted he has only had three finishes in the UFC, but the two wins over former champ Max Holloway (a great champ in his own right) were incredibly impressive. Ortega does not have the best defense when it comes to getting hit, so if Volkanovski can execute his game plan, then he’ll be at least winning on the scorecards. 

Ortega is going to look to get this fight on the ground, but the problem with that approach is he only has a 21% takedown success rate. Volkanovski has shown great takedown defense in the past, so he’s not going to go down easily, if he goes down to the mat at all. It’s difficult to look past the fact Ortega was dominated by Holloway, who Volkanovski defeated twice. 7* Alexander Volkanovski

10* Florida Atlantic (8:00 ET): I’m a bit stunned at this line as my power ratings say Florida Atlantic should be favored. So there’s no question I’m taking the points here. The line is even more enticing when you consider that the Owls are also on a 6-2 ATS run as underdogs and will be facing a defense that just gave up 628 total yards (and 49 points) last week. After starting 5-1 SU in Willie Taggart’s first season here in Boca Raton, FAU hit a bit of a snag, losing its final three games last year (including the bowl) and to Florida in the 2021 season opener (understandable). But off B2B convincing wins, they look to have turned a corner. 

Air Force is also 2-1, but just lost outright as nine-point favorites to Utah State last week. It was a 49-45 shootout that saw the Falcons run the ball better than they did in either of the first two games (437 yards) but the defensive “effort” simply wasn’t there. Of the 628 total yards allowed, 448 were through the air. Now they’ve got to deal with FAU QB N’Kosi Perry, who comes in averaging 290.3 YPG with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions. These teams have met once before (2018) and FAU gained 525 yards in a 33-28 win. All signs point to another big offensive effort, so again - why WOULDN’T you take the points? 

FAU had seven games either cancelled or postponed because of COVID-19 last year. On the bright side, 30 of the 34 players who started a game last season returned for Taggart, who finally was able to get some Spring practices in. So this is a very experienced group set to hit the road, much more experienced than Air Force. FAU did cover against Florida and would have covered in ‘18 vs. Air Force if not for a blocked punt in the final minute. Seeing as how Air Force twice blew an 11-point lead last week (including in the 4Q), I don’t see how anyone can expect them to win by any real margin. 10* Florida Atlantic

7* Chi White Sox (7:15 ET): The White Sox officially became AL Central Champs on Thursday when they won the first game of a doubleheader here in Cleveland, 7-2. They did lose the second game of that twinbill, 5-3, but quickly bounced back with a 1-0 win Friday. There’s not a ton left to play for in the regular season as Tony LaRussa’s team can’t catch the Rays for home field advantage in the playoffs. But a strong finish would go a long way to creating momentum for a deep postseason run.

Meanwhile, Cleveland is below .500 and out of contention. Last night marked the 13th shutout loss of the season as they struck out 16 times, matching a season-high. It’s been a difficult season with manager Terry Francona taking a leave of absence. Perhaps the biggest news for the Indians is that they’ll be changing their name to the Guardians next season. I was at the first game of the doubleheader on Thursday and believe me there is a real “stench” around this team right now. They’ve scored just 15 runs in the L6 games. 

Lance Lynn hasn’t won for the White Sox since July 25th. He’s 0-2 his L8 starts, but that doesn’t mean he’s pitched poorly. He did have one bad outing against the Cubs where he allowed seven runs. But he’s allowed 1 or 0 ER in 10 of his previous 13 starts. The team has scored just seven runs his L4 starts, which seems like an aberration. The White Sox should score tonight off Eli Morgan, who has an 8.31 ERA at home this year and Lynn is due for a victory. 7* Chi White Sox

9* South Carolina (7:00 ET): This is yet another matchup on the Saturday card where I feel the wrong team is favored. Kentucky is 3-0 SU (1st time since ‘18) but South Carolina is the more important (in our world) 3-0 ATS. The Gamecocks have lost a game, last week, but that was to a Georgia team that could be the best in the country right now. Two of UK’s wins have been close, including last week’s over FCS UT-Chattanooga, and all of them were in Lexington.The Wildcats only won by five (28-23) last week and didn’t even score enough points to cover the massive 31-point spread. Take the points here. 

Not much is being expected from South Carolina in Shane Beamer’s first year at the helm. The team was 2-8 SU in 2020. But Beamer (Frank’s son) didn’t inherit a bare cupboard. Opening with confidence-building victories over Eastern Illinois and East Carolina, the latter on the road, were huge even though the Georgia game didn’t work out last week. The Gamecocks still covered vs. Georgia to move to 3-0 ATS on the year. This is maybe Beamer’s best shot at a SEC win this season, so expect a solid performance. Luke Doty, who was originally going to be the team’s first string QB before injuring his foot over the summer, is back and now ready to make his first start. So that’s another boost. 

While this season is Beamer’s first foray into SEC football as a head coach, his players know the opponent well and desperately want to beat them. The Gamecocks are just 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS the L8 years vs. Kentucky and the current senior class would have just one win against them, the last time they hosted back in 2019. That was a 24-7 win and cover as 3.5-point favorites. This Wildcats’ offense has turned the ball over far too much this season (eight times) and the defense is letting opponents convert at 45% on third down. South Carolina isn’t as bad as many in the SEC think and I give them a great shot at the outright upset here. 9* South Carolina

9* UCLA (6:00 ET): The bloom is off the Rose (Bowl) so to speak as UCLA lost for the first time last week, a 40-37 shootout with Fresno State. But one upset loss should not cause you to disregard what this team has been doing in Chip Kelly’s third season in Westwood. The Bruins got as high as #13 in rankings, mostly on the strength of their 38-27 upset of LSU. I took them in that game and in the opener when they absolutely crushed Hawaii 44-10. I really like the improvement I’ve seen thus far out of Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who currently leads all Pac 12 QB’s with seven touchdown passes. 

Meanwhile, I also won with Stanford last week as they went to Vanderbilt and won 41-23 as 12.5-point favorites. That was a nice follow-up for them after their shocking upset of Southern Cal the week prior, 42-28 as 17-point dogs (which led to USC firing Clay Helton). The change at QB to Tanner McKee, following a season-opening loss to Kansas State, seems to have been a game-changer. But you should note that the Cardinal were outgained by the Trojans in that upset win and then allowed nearly 400 yards to a not good Vandy team last week. They aren’t playing Vandy again this week. 

This will be Stanford’s 1st game in Palo Alto since Week 2 of last season. It’s not like they have some great homefield advantage though. They are just 1-5 ATS L6 home games. This is a massive revenge spot for UCLA, who is just 1-12 SU and 2-13 ATS the L15 meetings with the Cardinal. But the one win was the last time they came to Stanford Stadium, 34-16 as a four-point dog. It was a 49-48 loss LY in 2OT as Thompson-Robinson got hurt. If not for a last-second UCLA loss last week, you have to think this line would be a lot higher. In a battle of teams I’m a combined 3-0 ATS with this season, I’ll lay the points. 9* UCLA

9* Borussia Dortmund (12:30 ET): It’s Derby week at Borussia Park as Gladbach welcomes in high-flying Dortmund on Saturday. The hosts are not in good form at all this Bundesliga season, sitting dangerously close to the relegation zone. They’ve collected only four points from the first five matches. The fact they’ve yet to lose at home may give the faithful some false hope for this one, but that opening week draw against Bayern Munich feels like ages ago. They’ve dropped three of four since with the lone win coming here against Arminia Bielefeld, another side that’s shown poor form in 2021/22. 

Dortmund is currently third in the table, looking up only at surprising Wolfsburg and of course Bayern Munich. BVB was widely expected to be the top challenger to Bayern this season and led by the fantastic Erling Haaland, they’ve already scored 17 times (most besides Bayern). They do need to get a little better when it comes to conceding as the 11 goals allowed is the fifth worst defensive mark in the Bundesliga right now. But I don’t think it’ll be an issue moving forward. They allowed the sixth fewest goals in the league last season. 

The big story here will be Dortmund’s manager Marco Rose facing the club he just left. Most saw Rose’s decision to jump as a wise career move. Dortmund has beaten Gladbach in 11 of the 12 prior league meetings, the one loss coming in last season’s visit. That’s since been avenged with a 1-0 win in the DFB Pokal. BVB is clearly the superior side this season. But you can bet Rose is looking to avoid what would be a certain embarrassment with a loss here. His side has scored at least two goals in four straight competitions. Meanwhile, Gladbach could not even manage a shot on goal in LW’s 1-0 loss to struggling Augsburg. 9* Borussia Dortmund

10* Sevilla (12:30 ET): The fourth place finisher in each of the last two La Liga seasons, Sevilla is looking like it has “what it takes” to challenge the heavyweights of Spanish football in 2021/22. While they are again currently sitting in the familiar fourth place position, Los Hispalenses have a game in hand over the three sides ahead of them and should be able to keep pace this week when they entertain a recently promoted side to the Spanish top flight, Espanyol. I’m predicting three more points here. 

Sevilla turned in a dominant performance midweek, defeating fellow top five side Valencia, 3-1. Now they are taking on a team that’s in 13th place and off its first win of the season. Espanyol has only managed to score four goals so far, all of them coming in the previous three fixtures. That’s only one more than Sevilla scored in the opening 22 minutes against Valencia. The only win so far for Espanyol came against Alaves, 1-0, and that’s the team sitting at the foot of the La Liga table with zero points right now. 

Sevilla has not lost this season, earning three victories and two draws. They don’t spend as much as Barcelona or the two Madrid clubs, but with Barca having a down year (so far), this could be Sevilla’s best shot at winning La Liga for the first time since 1946. I give them a great shot at topping last season’s 77 point total, which was a club record. Other than Real Madrid, I don’t see a better side in all of La Liga right now. Espanyol is a definite bottom of the table side this year. 10* Sevilla

8* Boise State (12:00 ET): It says a lot that a 1-2 team would be favored over a 3-0 team. Especially when the 1-2 team is a nine-point favorite on the road! Boise State’s two losses so far have been by a total of six points and were to UCF and Oklahoma State, two very competent programs. Meanwhile, Utah State has had to rally from a double digit deficit in all three games. Their two wins over FBS teams (Washington State, Air Force) were by a combined seven points and in each instance the Aggies battled back from a double digit 4Q deficit. So they very well could also be 1-2 heading into the Mountain West opener against a team they have struggled with in the past. 

Actually, to say USU has “struggled” in the past vs. Boise State would be putting it mildly. The Aggies are 1-17 SU/4-14 ATS the previous 18 head to head meetings. The lone SU victory took place here in Logan back in 2015. Utah State has not fared well in conference openers recently, going 0-4-1 ATS. I am shocked that they’ve opened this season 3-0 SU (1st time since ‘78) considering they won just one game a year ago and averaged only 15.5 PPG. They only led for the final 3:54 against Air Force last week and that was after trailing most of the way at Wazzu.

Boise State, like Utah State, has a first year coach leading the ship. The Broncos blew a 21-0 lead in the opener vs. UCF and then a 13-point lead vs. Oklahoma State. Really, you could make the case that Boise is the team that “should” be 3-0 while USU “should” be 1-2. It was 42-13 on the blue turf when these teams met last year and eight of the last nine wins in the series have been by double digits. The Utah State defense is very questionable right now as it has given up over 1,000 yards the last two weeks. Air Force gained 437 on the ground alone and even FCS North Dakota went for 442 total. Considering the history of this rivalry - and the fact USU has been down by DD in every game so far - I’ll gladly lay the points. 8* Boise State

8* Boston College (12:00 ET): In its first game w/o starting QB Phil Jurkovic (could be out the rest of the season), Boston College put up 28 points last week even with backup Denis Grosel completing only 5 of 13 passes for 34 yards. The running game - which saw three different backs find the endzone - was ultra-effective in going for 187 yards on 35 carries. Of course, it also helps to have a defense which is sixth nationally, allowing only 10.3 PPG. It’s because of that defense and this game being in Chestnut Hill that I feel we have a “false favorite” on our hands with Missouri. Take the points in this one. 

Boston College is looking to complete the non-conference portion of its schedule a perfect 4-0 straight up. It’s not been a challenging schedule to this point as the team has been favored by double digits in every game and twice by 40 or more. But the program has a solid reputation as an underdog, pulling 13 outright upsets the last five seasons and going 5-1 ATS its last six times in the role. But that’s only half the equation here. You’ve also got the fact that Missouri has been a lousy road team through the years, going 7-21 ATS L28 outside of Columbia. That includes 1-6 when laying points, which they are here. The Tigers are 0-3 ATS overall in 2021 including a 35-28 outright loss as a dog at Kentucky (7th straight year losing the SEC opener). 

The Eagles have a massive edge on the defensive side of the ball in this game. While they’ve allowed just 31 points in three games (28 of those against UMass), Mizzou’s defense is last among SEC teams in giving up 455.7 YPG. A lot of that has to do with the loss to UK, however the Tigers did give up nearly 300 yards rushing to SE Missouri State, a FCS school. When Grosel filled-in against UMass, he completed 11 of 14 passes for 199 yards. So look for him to put up better numbers than last week. I agree with my power ratings that BC should be favored. 8* Boston College

8* Everton (10:00 AM ET): It’s been a tough last seven days for the Toffies as they suffered their first defeat of the Premier League season AND were unceremoniously bounced from the Carabao Cup by a second tier side. I could think of no better matchup for them to bounce back than the one they’ve got here against Norwich City, a newly promoted side that sits at the foot of the table. You should look for Everton to regain its previous good form and collect the full three points here. 

Norwich City is dead last in the Premier League right now, the only side yet to collect a single point. Not like that’s any kind of shock as most believed it was going to be tough for them to remain in the English top flight after this season. But the first five weeks probably couldn’t have gone any worse as they’ve lost every fixture and been outscored 14-2 in the process. In addition to having the worst defensive record in the league, the Canaries are tied for the fewest goals scored. The only thing they really have in common with Everton is that they too bowed out of the Carabao Cup midweek. 

The 3-0 loss to Liverpool in the Carabao Cup marked the third time in their last seven competitions that Norwich has lost by three or more goals. That doesn’t even include last week’s 3-1 loss to fellow newly promoted side Watford. Everton had been rolling with a +6 GD through its first four Premier League matches. Even with the humbling 3-0 loss to Aston Villa, the Toffies still sit sixth in the table and will be in the running for European football next season. They’ve won three in a row on home soil while Norwich has lost eight straight on the road in the Premier League, netting only one goal in the process. 8* Everton

7* Atletico Madrid (8:00 AM ET): This is the second fixture in a row where I can’t believe how cheap Atletico Madrid is on the three-way line. Earlier in the week, I took them against a Getafe in what turned out to be a deserved come from behind victory. Now this price may not seem that cheap, but when you consider it’s the reigning La Liga champs against the team at the foot of the table, anything short of -200 seems like a steal. Don’t overthink this one as Los Colchoneros should pick up an easy three points. 

Alaves, just like Atletico Madrid’s previous opponent, are without a win this season. But they are even weaker than Getafe, even if it’s only by the slightest of margins. Alaves sits at the bottom of the table based on goal differential and they have not scored in any of their previous four matches! It figures to be a real struggle for them to survive in the Spanish top flight this season just as it was last year when they finished only four points clear of the drop zone. Not surprisingly, they lost twice to Atletico in 2020/21.

While the perception is that the champs are struggling a bit, they still are without a loss in six La Liga encounters. It’s been four wins and two draws and they’ve conceded only five times. Remember hey conceded only 25 times all of last season on their way to winning the league. I’d be surprised if they conceded at all here as Alaves has scored only one goal this season and it came in a 4-1 loss to Real Madrid. Since then, they’ve been outscored 7-0 over four fixtures, including two losses to newly promoted sides. This is a colossal mismatch. 7* Atletico Madrid

8* Toronto (8:10 ET): The Blue Jays badly need to start winning again as they’ve fallen out of the top two in the Wild Card chase. Losing to Minnesota on Thursday (7-2) leaves them a game behind the Yankees for the second WC spot and three games behind the Red Sox for the top WC spot. Those two teams are playing each other this weekend, so the Jays have an excellent chance to make up ground. All they need to do is beat up on a last place team. That shouldn’t be so hard, right?

The Twins have won three straight. But they are simply not in the same class as a Toronto team that has outscored its opponents by 166 runs over the course of this season. To put that number in perspective, it’s the fifth best run differential in MLB. Based on it, you’d expect the Blue Jays to be a 94-win team and challenging for the AL East pennant. But they’ve underperformed as the current nine-game difference between actual and expected wins is the largest of any team in MLB. 

I’m on the record as saying the Jays WILL make the playoffs so it makes all the sense in the world to take them here. They’ve got Jose Berrios starting Friday night. This will be his 1st time starting at Target Field as a visitor. He pitched here in Minnesota for many years and did quite well. He just faced his former team for the first time last week (in Toronto) and delivered his fifth straight quality start, leading the Jays to a 5-3 victory. I’m confident he’ll do the same thing again here opposite Bailey Ober, who has a 6.57 ERA his L3 starts for the Twins. 8* Toronto

10* Detroit (7:10 ET): The Tigers have been playing good baseball of late and still have a chance to finish .500 for the year. They come into this series with the Royals not just with added rest (off the L2 days) but also on a four-game win streak. They’ve won seven of nine overall even with all those games coming against division leaders (White Sox, Rays, Brewers). Kansas City is definitely a “step down” from those previous opponents, so I expect the home team to exact some revenge here for a three-game sweep it suffered back in July at Kauffman Stadium. 

The Royals have had the same amount of rest as the Tigers coming into this series. It’s a situation where both teams had their games postponed by rain on Wednesday before scheduled off days on Thursday. Kansas City has not been playing nearly as well as the Tigers, winning only three of its last eight games and two of those wins came in a doubleheader sweep of Cleveland on Monday. Most of this year has seen KC struggle on the road. They are just 33-44 and averaging 3.9 runs per game. The L9 times they’ve faced Detroit have all been at home. 

Casey Mize is on a strict innings limit for the Tigers (won’t go more than three innings), but I like him to get the job done while on the mound Friday. The Royals have been held to two runs or less in four of their last seven games. They did score 10 runs the last time Carlos Hernandez started a game, but that wasn’t enough as the right-hander allowed seven runs in four innings and the team lost 12-10 to Oakland. Considering their recent form and the fact they have revenge, expect the Tigers to take this one. 10* Detroit

10* Virginia (7:00 ET): The Hoos are off their first loss of the season, 59-39 to a North Carolina team that is still well regarded despite its season opening loss (at Va Tech). The good news for UVA is that they are NOT playing UNC this week. It’s a matchup with Wake Forest instead. The Demon Deacons may come in undefeated (3-0 SU) and 6-0 ATS the L6 meetings but it’s not easy to win in Charlottesville where the home team is 19-2 SU since the start of the ‘18 season. The Cavaliers have covered five straight as home favorites and I think they’ll make it six in a row Friday night on ESPN2. Lay the points.

Wake Forest is just 2-7-1 ATS its L10 road games and this will be their first time leaving Winston-Salem this season. It’s not exactly been an impressive run of opponents they’ve faced to this point, beating William & Mary (FCS), Old Dominion and Florida State. That trio has a combined zero wins over FBS teams in 2021. The Demon Deacons were outgained by 55 YPG in ACC play last season and really benefited from SIX Florida State turnovers last week. It’s never good to lose 59-39 (like Virginia did last week). But at least they got to face an elite offense. WF has yet to face a good offense, let alone one on par with Virginia. 

The Cavaliers put up 574 yards of total offense last week, which would normally  lead me to ask “can they possibly match that?” But in their case, they’ve averaged 558.3 YPG through three weeks and been very consistent in doing so. QB Brennan Armstrong is #2 in the country in passing yards right now. The last time Virginia played at home, they crushed Illinois 42-14 as 10.5-point chalk. This is a big-time revenge game considering they’ve lost four straight times to Wake (1st time ever) and were favored in three of those games. No upset this time. 10* Virginia

10* Under Texans/Panthers (8:20 ET): Houston is going into Thursday night with a backup QB, Davis Mills, who I saw Sunday and wasn’t the least bit impressive. Just the third QB to be drafted out of Stanford in my lifetime, the rookie played the entire 2H vs. Cleveland and completed just 8 of 18 pass attempts for 102 yards and a touchdown. Now, on a short week, he’s going to be facing a much better defense and it’s really difficult to envision a scenario where the Texans put up a lot of points. 

Carolina is a surprising 2-0 after holding New Orleans to seven points and 128 total yards on Sunday. Remember that the Saints put up 38 points, led by Jameis Winston’s five touchdown passes, in Week 1 vs. Green Bay. So that was a really impressive performance last week by Matt Rhule’s defense. This is the first time the Panthers have ranked #1 in the league in total defense since Week 10 of the 2017 season. Thus far they have given up an average of just 190 YPG and a total of only 21 points. 

But with Sam Darnold as their starting QB, there’s still questions about this Carolina offense. The Panthers have covered seven straight road games, but are also 0-6 ATS their L6 Thursday games, so something will have to give here. On the same note, the Panthers are 5-0 Under their L5 regular season games while Houston is 4-0 Over its L4. Considering how few points I expect the Texans to score here, Under has to be the call as you’ve got a rookie QB making his 1st career start (on a short week!) against the league’s top rated defense. The Over is 6-0 in NFL primetime games so far this season. We’re due for an Under. 10* Under Texans/Panthers

10* Under Marshall/Appalachian State (7:30 ET): Marshall was carried by its defense last season as that unit led the country in scoring (13.0 PPG allowed) and at stopping the run (96 YPG). That got them to the C-USA Title Game, but a three-game losing streak at the end of the season cost former HC Doc Holliday his job. I thought the coaching change was a bit shocking, but there’s no denying that they’ve seen offensive improvement in Huntington under Charles Huff. Through three games, the Thundering Herd is averaging 43.7 PPG! How ironic then that the defense let them down last week in a 42-38 loss to East Carolina! 

Appalachian State lost its place as the standard-bearer of the Sun Belt last season, finishing second to Coastal Carolina in the East Division. When they faced the Chanticleers, the Mountaineers led most of the way but ended up losing 34-23 in Conway. Their only other two losses were to Louisiana and … Marshall! The loss to Marshall took place in Huntington and saw ASU get held to a season low of 7 points. This year, ASU is off to a 2-1 start including a win over the same East Carolina team that just beat Marshall. Following a 25-23 loss to Miami, the Mountaineers bounced back with a 44-10 thrashing of FCS Elon last week. 

I don't think this game will be as low-scoring as last season, but I still like the Under. Last week’s performance by the Marshall defense was an aberration. The team led 38-21 going into the 4Q only to be outscored 21-0 the rest of the way. East Carolina games almost always end up being high-scoring. Appalachian State will be the best defense that the Thundering Herd have faced thus far. The Mountaineers have yet to allow more than 25 points in any game. Of the six games these teams have played, only one (Marshall-ECU) saw more than 56 total pts scored. 10* Under Marshall/Appalachian State

8* Oakland (3:10 ET): I thought the A’s were going to dominate this series. Clearly, that has not happened. They’ve lost the first three games to the Mariners and are now 0-8 the L8 head to head matchups with their AL West rivals. The results of this series have put Seattle ahead in the Wild Card chase as Oakland is now a full game behind them and 3.5 games back of the second WC spot. The A’s came into this series on a five-game win streak and I thought the fact they had revenge from a previous sweep would serve them well. I just can’t see them being swept at home in a four-game series. 

I’ve beaten the discussion of Seattle’s YTD run differential to death at this point. They continue to be the only American League team with a winning record and negative run differential. It’s not that uncommon to have a team with that dichotomy, but the M’s have taken it to the extreme in 2021. They are 83-69 despite having been outscored by 54 runs! Their win expectancy, based on that run differential, is only 70! No other team in MLB has exceeded its expected win total by more than six this season. The 2021 Mariners are truly one of the great overachievers of our time. I still don’t think they are very good. 

In their eight consecutive defeats at the hands of Seattle, the A’s have never topped four runs in any game. But I think the offense will get going this afternoon against Yusei Kikuchi, who has a 7.45 ERA and 2.275 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which have been Mariners’ losses. Kikuchi has also lost six of his last seven decisions. Starting opposite him will be Chris Bassitt, who makes his return to the mound after being hit in the face with a line drive last month. Bassitt had the most wins (12) in the American League at the time of his injury and the A’s have to be thrilled to have him back. Seattle’s offense is bottom five in batting average, slugging, OBP and OPS. 8* Oakland

6* Roma (2:45 ET): AS Roma is off its first loss of the Serie A season, a bit of a shocker as they fell 3-2 to Hellas Verona last week. But this is a great chance to bounce back as they are on a six-match win streak at Stadio Olimpico and will be hosting an Udinese side that has had little time to recover from its 4-0 thrashing at the hands of Napoli on Monday. So in addition to having the home turf edge, Roma has a bit of a scheduling advantage as well. (They last played on Sunday). Look for them to get the full three points here ahead of this Sunday’s derby with rival Lazio. 

It was also Udinese’s first loss of the Serie A campaign on Monday, although theirs came far more decisively than Roma’s did. They conceded twice in both halves, a result that reduced their YTD goal differential back down to zero. Previously, Udinese had beaten Spezia and Venezia, two of the weaker sides in Serie A. They’d also played to a 2-2 draw with Juventus, which no longer looks as impressive as it did at the time (Juve struggling big time). So Udinese has yet to defeat a team in the upper half of the table. It may not get as ugly as Monday did, but this is poised to be another humbling defeat.

I’d gone with Roma each of the first three weeks as they beat Fiorentina, Salernitana and Sassuolo in succession. With them taking maximum points from those three fixtures, I laid off last week against Verona. I was kind of regretting that decision when they led at halftime. But a poor second half confirmed my belief they were due for a letdown. Now I’ll get back on the horse and once again note that new manager Jose Mourinho has the second highest point percentage in the Italian top flight this century. This is going to be a side to be reckoned with in 2021. 6* Roma

10* Milwaukee (2:10 ET): Sweeping a four-game series on the road is tough to do, particularly when you’ve been the underdog every day. But that’s what St. Louis is looking to do here as the Cardinals are on their longest win streak in 20 years (11 games) and have taken three straight in Milwaukee. While fading a hot team like this can be a bit scary, I’m going to lean on the fact that the Brewers are a very good team (first place!) and this is the first time since June that they’ve lost more than three in a row. I believe they’re due to bounce back and will avoid the (rare) four-game sweep at home.

Now the Brew Crew needs to start swinging the bats better. In their last six losses, they’ve totaled just 10 runs. They’ve been outscored 17-5 in this series and are 15-45 this season when scoring three runs or less. Facing long-time nemesis Adam Wainwright may not sound like the ideal time for them to get the offense going. But Milwaukee is 39-21 in day games this season, averaging 4.8 runs. They also are averaging 5.0 rpg when facing a right-handed starter. They’ve won 41 of their last 60 games vs. righty starters. 

It also helps (the home team) having Adrian Houser on the mound. Houser is 3-0 his L3 starts with a 1.89 ERA and 0.947 WHIP during that time. The Brewers have won 17 of his 24 starts this season. One of those last three starts came against the Cardinals and Houser went the distance with a complete-game three-hitter (no runs allowed). He is 6-1 his L17 starts with a 2.87 ERA. Houser also beat the Cards back in April when the only run he allowed was unearned. St. Louis is just 2-7 the L9 finales of a four-game series. 10* Milwaukee

10* Oakland (9:40 ET): Well, hopefully the “third time's the charm” here as the Mariners have certainly made me look foolish in the first two games of this series. They’ve beaten the A’s by scores of 4-2 and 5-2 to pull even for second place in the American League West. Both clubs have 82-69 records and are three games out of the Wild Card. But, as stated here numerous times before, the Mariners being in playoff contention is nothing short of miraculous. They’ve been outscored by 57 runs this season, a differential that’s indicative of a team you’d expect to have 69 wins, not 82. No other team in MLB has exceeded their expected win total by more than six. Seattle is +13! They are the only AL team to have a winning record and a negative run differential. 

The A’s had won five straight games coming into this series and I expected them to keep rolling. They had revenge for a previous series sweep at the hands of the Mariners. With the results of the L2 days, they’ve now lost seven straight times to the M’s despite never giving up more than five runs in any of those contests. They need to get the offense going tonight and I predict they will as they face Seattle starter Chris Flexen, who has a somewhat misleading 19-9 TSR. Despite being 6-1 on the road, Flexen has a 4.32 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in those 13 games. 

The Mariners have the lowest team batting average in all of MLB (.225) plus they are 28th in OBP (.302), 26th in slugging (.384) and 27th in OPS. So that’s bottom five in the four key offensive categories. So there’s no reason that Cole Irvin, the A’s starter for tonight, shouldn’t pitch well here. Irvin did surrender four runs in his last start, but three were unearned. In his most recent home start, Irvin gave up just two runs in seven innings and had eight strikeouts, matching his 2nd highest total of 2021. 10* Oakland

10* Under Elche/Villarreal (4:00 ET): It’s pretty hard to fathom that Villarreal is still winless at this point of the La Liga season. But on the bright side, they also have yet to lose a match. The Yellow Submarine have drawn four straight times to open 2021/22, leaving them in 14th place and six points out of Champions League position. It’s a far cry from last year’s 7th place finish where I thought they were pretty much on par with the top four. 

Now Elche is a side that I thought was lucky to escape relegation last season. They had the lowest xPt total in all of La Liga - by a pretty wide margin - and ended up just two points clear of the drop zone, in 17th place. The gap between them and 13th place was larger than the gap between them and the foot of the table. Shockingly, they are currently two points ahead of Villarreal at the moment and 12th in the table, having taken six points from this season’s first five matches. They are unbeaten in their last three, having drawn both Sevilla and Levante with a 1-0 win over Getafe sandwiched in between. 

These are two of the lowest scoring sides in all of La Liga. Three of Villarreal’s four draws have been 0-0 with the only goals scored and conceded coming in a 2-2 final with Atletico Madrid when they gave up an own goal in stoppage time. With one game in hand compared to most of the league, the tendency is to say there’s no reason for LY’s Europa League winners to panic. But they also haven’t won since defeating Manchester United last May. It was a winless preseason. They will be without Gerard Moreno, their biggest attacking threat, on Wednesday and that’s a significant loss. As for Elche, there have been only six total goals scored in their five fixtures thus far and none have seen more than two goals scored. 10* Under Elche/Villarreal

8* Oakland (9:40 ET): The A’s lost for the sixth straight time to the Mariners last night, 4-2. As frustrating a loss as it was for them, it was even more so on this end as I went with Oakland in the series opener. My view on the Mariners is well documented by this point. This is a team that has no business even being in playoff contention. They have been outscored by 60 runs over the course of the season, which works out to an “expected” won-loss record of 68-82. But thanks to an incredible run of good fortune in close games, the team’s actual record is 81-69. They are the only AL team to have a winning record and negative run differential.

As you can see, the Mariners’ have outperformed their expected win total by 13 games. Now consider this - no other team in all of baseball has outperformed its expected win total by more than six games. Yesterday’s result leaves Seattle one game behind Oakland and three back of the second Wild Card spot, which is what both teams are chasing. The A’s are long overdue to snap this long losing skid to the Mariners. They’ve got a run differential of +67 on the season. I view them as a far more “legitimate” playoff contender compared to Seattle. Oakland had won five in a row going into yesterday. 

At the plate, Seattle has the lowest team batting average in all of MLB. They are also bottom five in both slugging and on base percentage. This is NOT a good team, folks! I’m aware that Tuesday’s starter Marco Gonzales has pitched well down the stretch, going 7-0 (9-3 TSR) with a 2.70 ERA his L12 starts. But after a five-out save last night, ace reliever Paul Sewald will likely NOT be available for manager Scott Servais tonight. Oakland had been getting good starting pitching lately and on top of that they’ve averaged 8.3 rpg in Paul Blackburn’s three September outings. Blackburn goes tonight, looking for his third straight win. He’ll get it. 8* Oakland

10* Cleveland (6:10 ET): The Indians lost twice to the Royals yesterday as they were swept in a doubleheader. They lost the two seven-inning games by scores of 7-2 and 4-2. What makes those results quite shocking is the fact the Tribe has dominated the Royals this season. They won 11 of the first 12 head to head matchups. So history says it’s quite likely they’ll bounce back on Tuesday and I’m going to take them here. The home team didn’t get it done at the plate on Monday, but had previously scored 11+ runs in three of their last four games. They’ve also got a red hot starter in Cal Quantrill set to toe the rubber this evening. 

Quantrill has won six of his last seven decisions and posted a 2.38 ERA and 1.037 WHIP his L7 starts overall. He’s pitched much better than his season-long TSR of 8-12 would seem to indicate. As I just alluded to, recently the results have been more favorable for Quantrill and the Indians. The right-hander is coming off B2B wins over the Minnesota Twins where he allowed just four runs and six hits over the course of 14 ⅓ IP. Three of the four runs allowed were unearned. Quantrill is also unbeaten at Progressive Field this season with a 4-0 WL record in 12 starts here. 

Kansas City had lost four of five coming into the series, all at home, and they generally do not hit well on the road (.234). So yesterday’s results were definitely “out of the ordinary” for them. Rookie Daniel Lynch will get the starting nod Tuesday and he’s really struggled in September, posting a 9.28 ERA and 1.687 WHIP in three starts. He also wasn’t very good when he faced Cleveland back on May 3rd. Quantrill won his lone start vs. the Royals this year and the Indians entered yesterday with an 18-9 record this season as a home favorite of -125 to -175. 10* Cleveland  

10* Atalanta (2:45 ET): Perennial Serie A power Atalanta has an excellent chance to move up the table on Tuesday when it takes on struggling Sassuolo. The third place finisher each of the previous three campaigns, Atalanta currently sits just eighth in the standings, having taken only seven points from their first four matches. Rightfully regarded as a “high-flying” side, perhaps the most shocking thing about Atalanta’s start is that they’ve scored only four goals. Each of those previous three seasons, they’ve led the Italian top flight in goals scored. I sense them breaking loose here and nabbing all three points. 

Sassuolo sits in 12th position right now, having taken just four points from their four matches. They too have scored four times, but have conceded five, which is two more than Atalanta has. The lone win this season for Sassuolo came in the opening match, 3-2 over Hellas Verona. Since then, they’ve really struggled for new manager Alessio Dionisi with the only point coming from a goalless draw against Sampdoria. They are off B2B losses, to Roma and Torino, the latter again seeing them fail to score. It’s not like Atalanta has been a favorable matchup in the past for the Neroverdi; they’ve been outscored 16-5 in the previous five meetings. So this seems like an unlikely spot for a turnaround. 

Atalanta desperately needed the goal they got in the 75th minute from Duvan Zapata against last place Salernitana last week. It not only gave them the win and three points, but also ensured they wouldn’t be winless over three straight Serie A matches, something they have not done since last November. A 2-2 draw with La Liga’s Villarreal in the Champions League was respectable, but the losses that preceded it - 2-1 to Fiorentina and 1-0 to Bologna here in Serie A - were not. As I wrote earlier, this just feels like a club ready to “break out” and I see them putting the sword to Sassuolo here. 10* Atalanta

8* Atletico Madrid (1:30 ET): This is a shockingly low price on the reigning La Liga champs as they face one of the teams at the foot of the table. Coming into the 2021/22 season, I was a little leery that Atletico might regress, but so far that has not happened as they are one of three sides in the Spanish top flight to have played five matches and not taste defeat. Now they are off consecutive goalless draws, one of those coming in the Champions League against Portuguese power Porto, but the side they are facing here has scored only once in four La Liga fixtures so far. It should be an easy three points for Los Colchoneros. 

While Atletico has yet to taste defeat in the Spanish top flight this season, Getafe has yet to win a single match. They are the only team in La Liga to have played five times and have zero points to show for it. They are 19th in the table right now and the only reason they aren’t sitting in last place (20th) is because 0-0-4 Alaves has an inferior goal differential. Getafe finished dangerously close to the drop zone a season ago (just four points clear) so their current position is really nothing new. They were dealt a tough set of fixtures to open this season with Valencia, Sevilla and Barcelona being the first three opponents. But a 1-0 loss to Elche and 3-0 loss to newly promoted Rayo Vallecano over the last two weeks only served to confirm what most already knew - this side is one of the worst in La Liga. 

The fact Atletico hasn’t scored in B2B matches makes me think they are due for a major breakthrough here. All it will likely take is one goal considering Getafe has been unable to score even one time in the last five meetings. Remember that Atletico conceded only 25 times all of last season, the fewest number in the league. Other than a 2-2 draw with Villarreal on August 29th, they’ve conceded only one other time in their last five across all competitions. Though Joao Fenix wasn’t sent off until late (78th minute), it is worth noting Los Colchoneros were down to 10 men by the end of Saturday’s draw against Athletic Bilbao. At this price, the reigning champs are a steal. 8* Atletico Madrid

8* Atlanta (9:40 ET): The Braves picked up a much needed win on Sunday, shutting out the Giants 3-0. Not only did they enable them to avoid being swept, but it also ended a four-game losing streak. Fortunately, they now get to start the week by playing an Arizona team that has the worst record in all of baseball. The D’backs have been a disaster here in 2021, dropping 36.7 units at the betting window and losing 101 of their 149 games. Even at home, they are just 28-43. An easy call on Monday night. 

It was last month when I went on the record and predicted the Braves would go on a major run. They did just that, seizing control of the National League East. The reason I continue to be so bullish on the Braves is because of their run differential. They are +98 YTD while all the other teams in the division have negative run differentials. That being said, their lead is down to two games and they can’t afford any more stumbles like last week. There was probably no better time for the D’backs to show up on the schedule. 

Arizona is off a 7-6 loss in Houston where they blew a two-run lead in the bottom of the eighth. So on top of being bad, morale is likely in the toilet after Sunday’s loss. The D’backs are 27-72 off a loss this season. They’ve lost five of six and 11 of 14 overall. Huascar Ynoa should take care of business here for the Braves as he has a 3.30 ERA and 1.022 WHIP in 14 starts this year. That includes a quality start (which Atlanta won) vs. the D’backs back in April. Starting for Arizona will be Humberto Mejia, who was just recalled from Triple-A Reno. It’s just his third start of ‘21 and the team has lost the previous two. 8* Atlanta

10* Oakland (9:40 ET): If you’re a regular follower of mine, then you know I’ve got no hesitation to fade a Mariners team that has grossly overachieved in 2021. Seattle comes into Monday sporting an 80-69 record, which has them still viable in the AL Wild Card chase. But it’s a minor miracle that they are still in playoff contention considering they’ve been outscored this season by 62 runs. Based on that run differential, you’d expect them to have only 68 wins this season. The 12-game gap between actual and expected wins is easily MLB’s largest. In fact, no other team has overachieved by more than five games. 

Though they did win on Sunday, 7-1 at Kansas City, the Mariners have started to slip. They’ve lost five of eight overall to fall four games back in the Wild Card hunt. If you are perplexed as to how a team can be outscored by 62 runs and still be 11 games over .500, know that Seattle has 31 one-run victories and 13 wins in extra innings, both of which are the most in MLB. They’ve had extremely good fortune to this point, but I am on the record as saying they will NOT make the playoffs. I’m too big of a believer in run differential to think this substandard team can finish in the top five in the American League.

This is a huge game for Oakland as they are also trying to make the playoffs as a Wild Card. After sweeping the Angels over the weekend, the A’s have won five straight. They are two games ahead of Seattle but still two back of the WC. The A’s have revenge here as they’ve lost five in a row to the M’s, including a two-game sweep at home last month. But they’ve got Sean Manaea on the hill Monday and he’s 2-0 this year vs. Seattle, having allowed just one run on seven hits in 16 IP. He’s got 21 strikeouts in the two starts, one of which was a CG shutout. Seattle is dead last in MLB in team batting average, not to mention bottom five in OBP and slugging. So I don’t see them solving Manaea here. Manaea also has 21 strikeouts in 19 IP here in September. He’s a much better option than Seattle’s Tyler Anderson. 10* Oakland

10* Green Bay (8:15 ET): The Packers were rightfully skewered for a horrendous opening week loss to the Saints. They lost 38-3 (were 3.5-point favorites for the neutral site contest) and gained a meager 229 yards of total offense in the process. But this week they are facing the Lions, one of the worst teams in all of football and I say Aaron Rodgers bounces back with a huge primetime showing. The L11 times they have hosted Detroit, the Pack are 9-2 SU with Rodgers throwing 21 TDs and 4 INTs. Green Bay is also looking to win its ninth straight home opener tonight and they should do so by a wide margin. Lay the points. 

Detroit did cover the spread in Week 1, but they were very fortunate to do so. At home, they trailed the 49ers 41-17 in the fourth quarter before two quick touchdowns (both followed by two-point conversions) allowed them to sneak through the proverbial “back door.” That made me happy as I took the points with the Lions. But again, it was very lucky as the second touchdown came after an onside kick recovery. Rodgers should have no problem shredding a Lions defense which gave up 8.0 yards per play to San Francisco and is now without CB Jeff Okudah for the remainder of the season (ACL). 

The Lions won’t be favored in a single game this season and they are 31st in my power ratings (ahead of only Houston). Obviously, I dropped Green Bay after last week’s performance, but they still have massive edges on both sides of the ball in this NFC North matchup. Perhaps we can just chalk up last week to a case of Rodgers not playing in the preseason or the fact the game was moved to a neutral site because of Hurricane Ida. Whatever reason you want to go with, I’m calling it a “one week aberration” as last year’s MVP should bounce back with a huge performance tonight. The Packers are 16-5 ATS off an ATS loss and 8-1 ATS off a SU loss. 10* Green Bay

9* Baltimore (8:20 ET): Even though the Ravens are on a short week and lost their opener, my power rankings still call this SNF matchup with the Chiefs a pick ‘em. There are definitely some issues with Baltimore right now. Injuries at the running back position plus a defense that doesn’t look quite as good as last year are the primary ones. But lest we forget how good this team has been the last few seasons. They are 9-1 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2018 season. That includes 6-1 with Lamar Jackson as the starter and the Ravens are 5-2 straight up in those seven games. The only previous time that Jackson was a home dog came against New England in ‘19. Baltimore won that game 37-20.

Kansas City has been living very dangerously going back to the second half of last season. They are 2-10 ATS their last 12 games, excluding preseason. It was only a four-point win at home over Cleveland last week, 33-29, where the Chiefs’ defense gave up a horrendous 8.2 yards per play. I played the Browns plus the points in that one, a wire to wire cover that saw them leading outright for most of the game, including 22-10 at the half. Were it not for a big special teams play (Browns’ punter mishandled the snap and ended up turning the ball over deep in his own territory), KC likely does not win that game. Had they lost, my guess is this spread would have been a lot closer to ‘pick em. 

Getting back to the Chiefs “living dangerously,” nine of their last ten wins (regular season and playoffs) have been by six points or less. That kind of good luck in close games is bound to regress eventually and I’m not going to be surprised at all when they lose a couple of close ones this season. While the Ravens are 0-3 SU vs. KC the L3 seasons, two of those games were decided by five points or less and one went to overtime. I think people are writing off Baltimore far too quickly. They are certainly able to win this game, so take the points. 9* Baltimore

10* NY Mets (7:08 ET): So I took the Mets on the run line (+1.5) Friday and that won. The Mets didn’t win the game mind you (lost 4-3), but that’s what the RL is for. I played the money line in last night’s game and that was NOT a success for the Mets or I as they lost 5-3. It’s now six straight losses to the Phillies going back to June and also a five-game overall losing skid for the Mets with all five losses coming here at Citi Field. But I’m going to take them to avoid the sweep Sunday night as this is the first time in the series that the odds are clearly in their favor. 

Philadelphia, even with a four-game win streak, still has a negative run differential and losing road record. Kyle Gibson is who they are starting tonight and he has not fared well of late, posting a 9.00 ERA and 1.733 WHIP his last three starts, all of which the Phillies have lost. He also has a 5.12 ERA in four previous starts against the Mets. I know the Phils have been gaining on both the Braves in the NL East and the Wild Card, but this is not a team that I’m sold on at all. 

Prior to the current losing skid, the Mets were 43-28 at Citi Field this season. They don’t allow many runs at home (just 3.6 per game), so it’s certainly been a disappointing stretch for them. They led the NL East most of the season, but hit the skids in August and are just 16-29 the L45 games. Still, they have a very similar run differential to the Phillies even though they’ve fallen behind in the standings. Rich Hill, a veteran southpaw, starts tonight looking to continue a recent string of strong outings. He’s allowed 3 ER or less in each of his last seven starts. 10* NY Mets

10* Minnesota (4:05 ET): I know that the Vikings have a banged up defense going into Arizona this week. And that the Cardinals were incredibly impressive in torching the Titans 38-13 in Week 1. But Minnesota is certainly capable of moving the ball as well. They gained over 400 yards in an OT loss to the Bengals in Week 1. Losing that game as three-point favorites, the Vikes have now failed to cover eight straight in the regular season. That’s the longest active ATS losing streak in the league. But I still believe this team is going to be improved in 2021. So take the points as I’m anticipating an outright upset here. 

How can I still be so confident in the Vikings improving? Well, as I wrote last week, this team was incredibly unlucky in a number of key areas last year. Special teams and lack of success on third/fourth downs were the biggest culprits in addition to a defense slipping to 29th in yards allowed. The kicking game and late down success rate can vary wildly from year to year. The defensive ranking was very uncharacteristic for a Zimmer-coached team. So that stuff is going to improve. The offense will still be good with Kirk Cousins (351 yards LW) and Dalvin Cook running the show. Minnesota has covered five straight times vs. Arizona. 

The Cardinals won SU as a dog in Week 1, but now they are favorites, a role that they are just 3-9 ATS in the previous two seasons. Not only that, they have a losing SU record (5-7) as chalk. Kyler Murray is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite in his career. The Vikings defense, even banged up, is better than the Titans’. I’ve never been sold on Cardinals’ HC Kliff Kingsbury’s in-game decision making. The Vikings were called for a ton of 1H penalties last week, which shouldn’t be repeated. They have only been a dog for two of those eight straight ATS losses and those games came at Tampa and New Orleans. Arizona is not on that level. 10* Minnesota

9* Atlanta (4:05 ET): Underdogs in division games are generally a solid bet the first five weeks of the NFL season. Such teams have cashed over 60% of the time going back to 2006. Double digit dogs in divisional matchups tend to always catch my eye as more often than not you get closer games than expected when the opponents are familiar with one another. So I’ll take a flier on Atlanta here despite the fact they were blown out at home last week, 32-6 by Philadelphia. The Falcons have covered seven of the last eight times they’ve gotten 10 or more points from the oddsmakers. 

The defending Super Bowl Champs nearly lost the season opener, needing a late drive from Tom Brady to set up the game-winning field goal. Not only did Tampa Bay barely escape against Dallas last Thursday, but HC Bruce Arians is 0-4 ATS all-time as a double digit favorite. So that’s another reason to take the points in this NFC South matchup. Then you’ve got the fact that the Bucs turned the ball over four times against the Cowboys while the defense gave up 450 total yards. Now Dallas is more talented than Atlanta, but I think the Falcons will score enough to stay within the number here. TB allowed 30 first downs last week! 

Now I know what you’re saying. The Falcons only scored SIX points last week. It was a dreadful showing, one that the new coaching staff should be embarrassed about. But Arthur Smith will have his team ready here. Remember that Atlanta still has QB Matt Ryan. Eight of their 12 losses last season were by seven points or less as they were far better than their record. Seven times they lost a game by less than six points. That includes a blown 17-0 halftime lead against Brady and the Bucs. TB will be without starting CB Sean Murphy-Bunting and did not tackle well in the first game. 9* Atlanta

8* Under Raiders/Steelers (1:00 ET) My Under bet Monday night looked pretty solid for three quarters. There were only 27 points scored between the Ravens and Raiders, a matchup where the oddsmakers’ total was a lofty 50.5. But then came a deluge of 4Q points with the teams doubling the scoring. By the time overtime was needed to settle things, the game had already gone Over. It was the sixth straight regular season game to go Over for Las Vegas, the longest active streak in the league right now. That’s going to be tested this week as they are matched up against one of the better defenses in the league. 

The Steelers pulled out a surprise 23-16 win in Buffalo last Sunday. The game got off to a rocky start for the Black & Gold when they allowed a long return after the opening kickoff. But they held the Bills to just a field goal on that drive and would allow only one TD the entire game. That was a very good offense they faced, much better than what they’ll see here. At the same time, Pittsburgh’s offense remains a bit of a concern with an aging Ben Roethlisberger behind center. They gained only 252 total yards vs. the Bills and the only offensive TD that they scored came with good starting field goal position. 

RB Josh Jacobs is out for the Raiders this week, so it’s going to be difficult to move the ball on the ground. Not that I would expect them to be all that effective doing so, even with Jacobs on the field. There was major turnover with the LV offensive line this offseason and we all saw what the Steelers’ defensive front was able to do to Bills QB Josh Allen last week. A short week and early start time do the Raiders no favors either. However, they have had the Steelers’ number in recent years, covering six of the last seven meetings with five outright upsets. So let’s go with the Under as neither team will move the ball all that effectively. 8* Under Raiders/Steelers

8* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): Few - if any - teams outperformed my Week 1 expectations more than the Eagles did. They went down to Atlanta and thumped the favored Falcons by a score of 32-6. I don’t think anybody saw Philly starting the year 2-0, but we can use that to our advantage here as they host San Francisco in Week 2 and are getting points. My power rankings label this game as a “pick ‘em,” so there’s some clear value right off the bat. Throw in the fact that San Francisco has already endured some key injuries and I’ll definitely be taking the points in this matchup. 

It was a miracle cover on the Lions last week when I went against the 49ers. Certainly things did not look good for much of the games, especially when SF led 41-17 early in the 4Q. But an incredible series of events led to Detroit sneaking in through “the back door.” The Niners did put up a ton of points & yards (442), but they don’t get to face the lousy Lions defense every week. The Eagles did not allow a single pass play of more than 20 yards against the Falcons. Also concerning for the Niners was their own defense giving up 430 yards in last week’s win. But worst of all was two key players - RB Raheem Mosert and CB Jason Verrett - being lost to season-ending injuries. What a blow to both sides of the ball! HC Kyle Shanahan has to be thinking “not again!” (The 49ers were among the most injured teams LY). 

Meanwhile, things couldn’t have gone any better for the Eagles in Nick Sirianni’s coaching debut. QB Jalen Hurts had a career-high passer rating. WR Jalen Reagor had a career-high six catches. I also like rookie WR DeVonta Smith, who also had six catches in his first pro game. The defense didn’t allow a point over the last 44 minutes of game time. Might everyone have underrated this Eagles’ team coming into the season? It’s possible and as I wrote last week, San Francisco has not been good as a favorite under Shanahan (now 7-17-2 ATS). 8* Philadelphia

8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): While no team outperformed my expectations more in Week 1 than Philadelphia did (see elsewhere in 3-pack), no team was a bigger disappointment than Jacksonville. The Jaguars laid a major egg in Urban Meyer’s pro debut, losing 37-21 to who we all expect to be the worst team in the league this season (Houston). The market has quickly turned against Meyer, installing him as a big underdog for his 1st home game. Admittedly, the Jags have lost 16 straight regular season games. But it’s difficult to disregard the fact they were favored on the road last week. I’m taking the points here. 

Jacksonville may have had the league’s worst record in 2020, but Denver was the only team not to be favored in a single game. Now the Broncos will open as favorites in each of their first three 2021 games, so improvement is clearly expected here. Teddy Bridgewater is the new QB, providing some much needed stability on the offensive side of the ball. The Broncos’ defense was pretty good LY, so I can see why people are bullish on this team. But expecting them to win B2B road games by a significant margin? Not sure I’d be that optimistic. HC Vic Fangio is just 1-4 ATS off his L5 SU wins. 

Denver won 27-13 at the Giants in Week 1. The lookahead line for this game was Denver -2.5. I don’t think that beating one of the worst teams in the league justifies the number moving so much. The Jacksonville offense did average 5.8 yards per play last week with #1 overall DC Trevor Lawrence attempting 51 passes. Three interceptions really doomed Lawrence in his first NFL start, but I think he’s going to take better care of the ball here. Meyer can’t afford to get blown out again and I think his team will keep this one close. 8* Jacksonville

10* Chelsea (11:30 AM ET): Midweek saw the Blues begin the defense of their Champions League crown by earning a relatively easy three points with a comfortable 3-0 win over Zenit St. Petersburg. Now they turn back to the domestic front where a win Sunday would put them level with Liverpool atop the Premier League table. Chelsea very much has the look of a side that can win the EPL this year. Through four weeks, they are one of four clubs yet to taste defeat. There is no denying the improvement that has taken place since Thomas Tuchel took the reins a little under a year ago. I like them to keep rolling in the London derby. 

Tottenham began the Premier League campaign with three straight 1-0 victories. But all it took was one drubbing to level their goal differential. It was a shock 3-0 loss to Crystal Palace last week and then to make matters worse the Spurs then could only manage a draw (2-2) with Rennes to start the Europa Conference League. So recent form has been quite shaky, at least compared to Chelsea over the last week. Perhaps Tottenham was due for that drubbing at the hands of Crystal Palace as they actually sport the 4th lowest xPts total in the league. The metrics suggest they are very fortunate to have allowed only three goals to this point. 

If the Spurs are counting on a return to North London being a “cure-all,” they best think again as it’s been nearly 20 years since they won their first three home EPL matches. They were a bit lucky to earn the draw midweek as they were the beneficiaries of an own-goal and then it was Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg coming off the bench for the equalizer. Injuries and suspensions have weakened the starting XI for this big matchup with a Chelsea team that has been beaten only once in its last 15 EPL away matches while scoring at least a goal in six straight. Furthermore, the Blues are unbeaten in the last five fixtures with the Spurs, winning four times and conceding only once. They’ve also conceded just one goal in the first four matches this season, a carryover from last season’s stinginess. 10* Chelsea

8* Tulane (8:00 ET): This is Tulane’s second game against a ranked opponent this year. The first, while not a SU win, was certainly a “moral victory” of sorts. It was an ATS victory as well as they stayed  within a monster 31-point number against top five Oklahoma. Now we’ve seen many teams stay within generous numbers such as that one. But in this instance, the Green Wave only lost the game by five points (40-35). So what I’m saying here is they will not be intimidated when they pay a visit to Oxford this Saturday night to take on #16 Ole Miss. Last week saw Tulane win 69-20 over FCS Morgan State. 

Ole Miss’ season got off to a rousing start with a Labor Day beatdown of Louisville, 43-24 as nine-point favorites. That was without HC Lane Kiffin, who was in COVID protocol. If you recall, I went with the Under and despite the high score, that particular bet did cash. As impressive as the Rebels’ offense has been so far (they also hung 54 on Austin Peay last week), a lot of the focus has been on an improved defense. But realize that “improvement” has taken them from 126th in the FBS (which was next to last) in yards allowed last season to 73rd this season. This Ole Miss defense is about to receive its stiffest test yet from a Tulane offense that can match the firepower they’ve got here in Oxford 

Ole Miss QB Matt Corral is one of the top signal callers in the country, but so too is Tulane’s Michael Pratt. The Green Wave have scored 104 points in two games and what makes the performance against OU all the more impressive is that they had to deal with the game being moved to Norman due to Hurricane Ida. Also make note of Tulane’s special teams. They lead the FBS in net punting and punt return defense. The underdog is going to put up a bunch of points in this game and thus should easily stay within the two touchdown spread. The Green Wave have covered 17 of their last 26 games overall. 8* Tulane

8* Stanford (8:00 ET): Both teams are off shocking upset victories, so the whole “letdown” is really a non-factor in this game. In the case of Stanford, their upset win was more “shocking” in terms of the point spread. They went to the Coliseum as 17-point underdogs last Saturday and beat USC 42-28. An 87-yard TD run by Nathaniel Peat opened the scoring for the Cardinal, who never trailed. The beatdown of the Trojans was so severe that they ended up firing Clay Helton after the game. The biggest takeaway for Stanford was the play of QB Tanner McKee, who threw for 234 yards and 2 TDs in his first start. 

The most shocking thing about Vanderbilt last week is that they won at all. The Commodores had dropped 11 in a row before winning at Colorado State 24-21 as 6-point dogs. It was a 38-yard FG with 19 seconds left that gave Clark Lea his first career win as head coach. In Lea’s first game, the Commies lost 23-3 to a FCS school (East Tennessee State) as 21-point favorites. Somewhat ironically, it was ETSU that provided Vandy its last win, back in 2019. The Commodores had lost 13 in a row to FBS teams before last week. It should be pointed out that they were outgained by 103 yards against CSU, another team that lost its opener to a FCS opponent. 

This is the 1st ever meeting between these academic powerhouses. It’s also the first time ever a Pac 12 team has paid a visit to Vanderbilt Stadium. Stanford has never visited a SEC school either. So there’s a real sense of unfamiliarity here. I think the real key is going to be McKee. He showed why he was such a prized recruit in leading the upset of USC. Thus you can pretty much disregard Stanford’s opening week game, a 24-7 loss to Kansas State, as McKee didn’t start that one. But you can’t discount just how bad Vandy is. If the Cardinal can hang 40+ points again, then they should have no difficulty covering the spread here. They led Southern Cal 42-13 last week. Lay the points. 8* Stanford

10* NY Mets (7:15 ET): The Mets have lost four straight, all at home, and they’ve also lost five in a row to the Phillies. So the fact they are playing on the Phillies on Saturday will not exactly have most running to the betting window to take the Mets. But, for the record, I did cash them on the run line (+1.5) yesterday. The revenge angle, from a previous sweep, is still in play here. Like I wrote in yesterday’s analysis, the Phillies are a sub-.500 road team and they have a negative run differential on the season. That previous sweep of the Mets took place in Philly and I do not see history repeating itself this weekend. This time, I’ll go with the Mets on the money line. 

The Phillies have not made the playoffs in a decade, which is actually the longest active drought in the National League. They entered the day two games back of division leading Atlanta in the NL East and 2.5 games back of St. Louis for the second Wild Card. Again though, I view them as a below average ballclub. Aaron Nola, who gets the start tonight, has struggled recently. He has a 7.54 ERA his L3 starts and the road hasn’t been particularly kind to him all season. Nola has a 6-10 TSR away from home in 2021 with a 5.57 ERA. He lost as a massive ML favorite (-280) his last time out, at home vs. Colorado. 

The Mets led this division for 89 days at one point, but have had a tough second half with a poor record in one-run games. But I believe they are set to finally break through tonight. While they’re not going to make the playoffs, I view them as being pretty equal to the likes of the Phillies and Cardinals, so it seems unfortunate they’ve lost four in a row to those two teams this week. Carlos Carrasco has a 3-0 TSR in September and recently led a win over the Yankees last Sunday night. Opposing teams hit just .219 at Citi Field. 10* NY Mets

10* Toledo (4:00 ET): There’s a school of thought that says this is a prime letdown spot for Toledo, who is coming off a tough three-point loss at Notre Dame last week. The Rockets may have lost the game in South Bend 32-29, but they easily left with the cash as 16.5-point underdogs. Now they turn around and are laying more than two scores at home. Normally, I might agree with the prevailing wisdom. But in this instance, the Rockets are facing a Colorado State team that is off to as bad a start as anybody in College Football. The Rams are 0-2 with losses to South Dakota State and Vanderbilt where they’ve missed the spread by a combined 30+ points. I’ll lay the number Saturday afternoon at the Glass Bowl. 

Toledo got its first ever cover as a double digit dog under HC Jason Candle last week (previously 0-6 ATS). They led the Fighting Irish outright with just over a minute to go. They led at halftime as well. This is a team that should be in contention for a MAC Championship as it returns 21 starters from a team that outgained its six conference foes by an average of 131 YPG last season. Before facing Notre Dame, the Rockets blew out Norfolk State 49-10. There was no look ahead there. I don’t expect there to be a letdown here. 

But the crux of this play centers around just how bad CSU has been so far. Their first game was a 42-23 home loss to FCS South Dakota State. The Rams never led, trailed by as many as 26 and gave up almost 500 yards. Then they lost by three, again at home, to a very bad Vanderbilt team that had previously lost 11 in a row. The Rams have fallen into the bottom 10 of my power ratings and I now project them to win just two games this season. If you can believe it, those same power ratings say this should be a four touchdown spread! I’ll trust the numbers! 10* Toledo

9* Baylor (3:30 ET): Kansas suffered a real “bad beat” last Friday at Coastal Carolina. I know because I had the misfortune of playing the Jayhawks. They led outright (9-7) at the end of the first quarter and it was only a six-point game midway through the third. Keep in mind they were getting 26.5 points. As you can surmise, things went badly down the stretch as Coastal Carolina scored the game’s final three touchdowns to make it 49-22. A missed XP early in the game cost KU bettors the cover and to add insult to injury, the team chose to go for it on fourth down (rather than kick a FG) on the final drive.

While some may look at a result like that and figure Kansas is “due” this week, I happen to think quite the opposite. After playing hard for three quarters against a Top 25 opponent last week, I wonder if the Jayhawks will come out “flat” for the Big 12 opener. Now the game is at home. But it’s also against Baylor, who has beaten them 11 consecutive times and covered nine straight. I laid a similar number with the Bears last year in Waco and they won easily 47-14. Each of the L9 victories over Kansas have been by a minimum of 19 points. While it may not get as ugly as last year, I’m laying the points again. 

The Jayhawks have not won a Big 12 game in some time. In fact, it was Oct 26, 2019. It’s been 12 straight losses since. The L10 seasons have seen them go 5-84 SU in Big 12 play! They also only beat FCS South Dakota by a field goal in the opener (were slightly outgained). Remember that 1st year HC Lance Leipold was hired late (after the spring) due to the dismissal of Les Miles. Baylor is off its highest yardage and point total since the Art Briles era. Now the victim was an FCS school (Texas Southern), but the Bears will still take it. They are 2-0 SU having also defeated Texas State on the road, 29-20, in the opener. This is more of a fade on Kansas than anything else. 9* Baylor

8* Miami FL (12:00 ET): First impressions are always key and in the case of 2021 Miami football, the first impression wasn’t very good. “The U” was slaughtered by Alabama in their first game, losing 44-13. Not that it was expected to be that close; the Hurricanes were 19.5-point underdogs against the Tide despite being ranked #14 in the country at the time. But still it was a poor effort in front of a National TV audience. Manny Diaz’s team doesn’t get a “second chance at a first impression,” but at least they were able to defeat Appalachian State here in Coral Gables last week, even if it was only by a score of 27-25 (as seven-point chalk). 

With Miami 0-2 against the spread, Michigan State has the feel of a very “public dog” this weekend. The Spartans are 2-0 SU and ATS having gone on the road and upset Northwestern (as 3-point underdogs) in Week 1 and then handled their business against FCS Youngstown State (won 42-14 as 27-point favorites) in Week 2. In both games, Sparty scored a 75-yard TD on its first play from scrimmage. But now they are back on the road and facing their toughest opponent to date. After going 2-5 SU in Mel Tucker’s first season in East Lansing, Sparty was pegged by some to finish last in the Big 10 East this season. So excuse me if I am still a little skeptical of what they bring to the table. 

Miami was expected to battle with North Carolina for the top spot in the ACC Coastal. It’s been a rough start to the season in the ACC, but if the ‘Canes end up with only the loss to Alabama on their resume, I think they’ll be smiling down on South Beach. This is a more experienced team compared to Michigan State and they are much stronger at the QB position with D’Eriq King. Miami has moved the ball okay so far, the problem has been scoring only two touchdowns on eight red zone opportunities. That’ll change. Michigan State had been just 2-8 SU/ATS as a road dog the previous two seasons before the opening week upset of what promises to be one of the weaker Big 10 teams this season. The Spartans’ offensive line, which has done its job thus far, is in for a rude awakening against this Miami defensive front. 8* Miami FL

8* West Virginia (12:00 ET): The Mountaineers can ill-afford a second loss this early in the season. They lost the season opener at Maryland 30-24 as 2.5-point chalk due in large part to an inability to run the football (just 48 carries on 21 yards). However, a -4 turnover margin was the biggest culprit in that upset loss which wasn’t decided until the fourth quarter. Last week was the classic “get-well game” in Morgantown as WVU routed FCS Long Island 66-0, scoring on all of its first eight possessions including seven TDs. Fortunately, the ‘Neers get to stay at home this week for what should be a much tougher game - against #15 Virginia Tech - who is looking for its first 3-0 start in four seasons. I’m laying the points. 

Home field advantage has proven vital for WVU in the past when facing non-conference opponents. They have not lost here to a non-conference foe since #2 LSU beat them back in 2011. They are 18-0 SU since that time. This will be Virginia Tech’s 1st road game of 2021. They are below .500 (7-8 straight up) away from Blacksburg the previous three seasons. What is interesting about this number is that you’ve got an unranked team laying points to the #15 team in the country. In this situation, it has always been smart to back the unranked chalk. Since 2016, unranked faves are 16-7 SU when facing a Top 20 opponent. I’ve got no problem laying a number this short in Morgantown. 

As I just said, Va Tech is now ranked 15th in the country, which is something I don’t think many expected to see this season. They opened with a 17-10 upset of North Carolina, a game where they were outgained 354-296. They also barely outgained Middle Tennessee State last week (383-349). My own power ratings aren’t nearly as bullish on the Hokies, placing them 27th in the country right now. They just lost TE James Mitchell to a season-ending knee injury. WVU had a solid defense LY for Neal Brown, allowing only 20.5 points and 291 yards per game. This is the most experienced team in Brown’s three years here. With Oklahoma up next on the docket, the Mountaineers REALLY can’t afford a loss this week. Adding more fuel to the fire is the fact the program’s last win over Va Tech was in 2003. 8* West Virginia

8* Texas A&M (12:00 ET): The 7th ranked Aggies are coming off a very lethargic 10-7 win over unranked Colorado last week. Now that game was in Boulder and Jimbo Fisher did lose his starting QB (Haynes King) to injury. Zach Calzada will get the start this week. The fact A&M is laying more than four scores with a backup QB may not sound all that appealing, but the opponent is New Mexico, who I’d consider possibly one of the ten worst teams in America despite its 2-0 SU start. My power ratings have this line north of -40 (!) so we are actually getting a discount in College Station. I think Calzada is going to do just fine in this game and I look for the Aggies to win real big. Lay the points.

New Mexico is 2-0, but those wins were against Houston Baptist (FCS) and New Mexico State (2nd worst FBS team in my rankings). So it’s about as big a step up in class as possible for the Lobos this week. They didn’t even cover against either of the two patsies, winning the first game by only 10 points and second by only nine. Now this is the first 2-0 start in Albuquerque going back to 2005. But this is a team expected to finish at the bottom of the Mountain West this season. They’ve been fortunate to get five turnovers so far. 

Calzada did lead the GW drive last week, so he’s got that under his belt. He’s also backed up by a defense that surrendered just 54 total yards to Colorado in the second half and made them go 0 for 6 on third downs. New Mexico won’t score many points Saturday, making covering the spread more attainable for the Aggies. Heading into the SEC opener next week vs. Arkansas, look for Fisher to want to make a statement. This team has won 10 consecutive games since losing at Alabama early last season. They’ve won 27 straight over “Group of 5” teams by an average of almost 27 PPG. They’re 4-0 all-time vs. New Mexico with the three wins in College Station coming by an average of 46 PPG. 8* Texas A&M

10* Maryland (9:00 ET): For the time being, Illinois is still going to be getting some “residual respect” based on their opening week upset of Nebraska. The Fighting Illini closed as a 6.5-point home underdog for that game, but pulled a 30-22 upset thanks in large part to a safety & defensive TD. It was a great start to the Brett Bielema era in Champaign, but the Illini haven't won since. First they dropped a home game to UTSA (where they were a 4-point favorite) and then last week they got hammered 42-14 on the road by Virginia. The defense was torched for 556 yards by the Hoos and the number of points allowed by the Illini has gone up every week. Through three weeks, they are allowing 33.7 PPG. 

That’s bad news when getting set to face a Maryland team that just hung 62 points on the board last week. Granted that was against a FCS opponent in Howard. But Taulia Tagovailoa (yes, Tua’s younger brother) should have little difficulty carving up this Illini secondary. Tagovailoa has already thrown for 600+ yards in two games with six touchdowns and zero interceptions. He’s completed 76% of his passes thus far and has the fifth highest passer rating among QBs with at least 60 attempts. If that’s not enough to impress you, perhaps the Terrapins upsetting West Virginia 30-24 in Week 1 should. The offense put up nearly 500 yards in that win. They also have RB Tayon Fleet-Davis, who is averaging 7.4 yards per carry. 

Illinois will be starting Brandon Peters at QB Friday night. Peters had originally won the job in camp, but suffered an injury in the win over Nebraska. The Illini faithful are going to hang their hat on Peters’ return, but I just don’t see that being enough to stay within the number here. Illinois has won just 2 of the last 15 times they’ve been a home dog of 7.5 to 10 points and gone 5-10 ATS. These schools have met only once before and it ended up being a 63-33 win for Maryland three years ago. I still consider the Illini to be the worst team in the Big 10 and my power rankings say this should be a double digit spread. This won’t be another game like the one vs. Nebraska. Lay the points. 10* Maryland

9* Run Line NY Mets (7:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Mets +1.5. The Mets were swept by the Phillies back in early August, putting them in this revenge situation. What I like besides the revenge angle is the fact that the Mets had Thursday off and the Phillies didn’t. The Mets certainly needed the day off after being swept again, this time by the Cardinals here at home. It’s been a rough second half of the season in Queens as the team has gone from leading the NL East to below .500. But I see the Metropolitans doing no worse than a one-run loss today. 

The Phillies were 17-8 winners yesterday over the Cubs. Something worth mentioning about that game is that the Phils trailed at one point by seven runs. They became the first team in the modern era to win a game by 9+ runs after trailing by seven or more. When it comes to playoff contention, they are in far better position than the Mets, only 2.5 games out of the Wild Card and three games back of the division lead. But this club is only 32-40 on the road this year and 8-8 as a road favorite of -125 to -175. So I really like the +1.5 option we are getting here, especially at this price. On their last road trip, Philadelphia lost two of three to both Miami and Milwaukee with one of the two wins coming by a single run. 

Fading Phillies’ starter Zach Wheeler may seem risky, given he has 18 quality starts under his belt and 12 of those saw him allow 1 or 0 ER. The last two times Wheeler has faced the Mets, he’s had their number; allowing no runs in 16 IP. The last one was a complete game. But while he’s been good recently, Wheeler had a rough August (allowed 4+ ER five times) and his numbers on the road aren’t nearly as good as they are at home. I feel that Mets’ starter Taijuan Walker (1.041 WHIP at home) has pitched better than his record shows. This will be his fifth time facing Philadelphia in 2021 and he has a 3-1 TSR. Considering the Phillies trailed the Cubs by seven y’day, would you really be that surprised to see them lose here? 9* NY Mets +1.5

10* Under Indians/Yankees (7:05 ET): The Yankees could not finish off the sweep in Baltimore yesterday as they went down 3-2. They were one strike away from winning, but a wild pitch in the bottom of the ninth allowed the Orioles to tie the game and then it was over in the 10th. The loss leaves the Yankees one-half game back of the Blue Jays and Red Sox for the Wild Card as they’ve now dropped 13 of 19 overall. A favorable six-game homestand begins tonight with a visit from Cleveland, but I have my doubts about a Yankees team that is only averaging 4.3 runs per game this season. Take the Under here.

Cleveland comes in on the heels of a 12-3 win at Minnesota on Wednesday. The Tribe is looking to make it B2B wins for the first time in over two weeks here. But despite what they did at the plate 48 hours ago, the Indians are also not a strong offensive club. They’ve been no hit THREE times in 2021, the most recent one coming less than a week ago. Prior to erupting for 12 runs in their last game, the Indians had scored three or fewer in eight of nine contests. I expect them to revert back to those previous struggles tonight against a familiar face in Corey Kluber. 

Kluber, who won two Cy Youngs with Cleveland, has had a bit of a rocky stretch since returning from the injured list. But with a 2.79 ERA at Yankees Stadium this year, it’s only a matter of time before he gets back on track. For the Yankees’ sake, Kluber better be sharp tonight because I’m also expecting a strong outing from Cleveland starter Zach Plesac, who has a 2.50 ERA and 1.056 WHIP his L3 starts. Plesac had been getting a ton of run support before his team was no-hit his last time out. The amount of run support (7+ runs in six straight starts) made little sense given the Indians’ offensive woes and as we saw in the last start, it’s not likely to continue. 10* Under Indians/Yankees

8* Celta Vigo (3:00 ET): This particular La Liga fixture jumped right out at me when gazing at this weekend’s soccer card. Cadiz is a side that was fortunate not to get relegated in 2020/21. They finished with the second lowest expected point total (xPts) in La Liga, yet somehow ended up 12th in the table. They were outscored by 22 goals, a differential that only two teams were worse than (Real Valladolid and Eibar) and both of them were relegated. It was their first year back from the Segunda Division and Cadiz conceded the second most goals in the league. So I’m going to be looking to play against them regularly this season, including this Friday at Celta Vigo. 

Celta Vigo, like Cadiz, is one of the eight La Liga sides without a victory through four weeks. They actually have one fewer point. The lone point came from a goalless draw with Osasuna in the second match of the season. Having faced both Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid thus far, it’s not a total shock to see Os Celestes with some losses on their resume. But this definitely isn’t what they were thinking following an eighth place finish a season ago. A fixture like this one is something they must take advantage of and get the full three points. I believe they will. 

Celta Vigo actually had the lead not once but twice against Real Madrid before wilting in the second half. Conceding five goals in that one skews the season total, but consider they’d allowed a total of only three goals in the first three matches. They whipped Cadiz 4-0 here at home last season. Cadiz is off a 2-0 loss to Real Sociedad last week and is fortunate to have two points as they drew Levante thanks to a 97th minute equalizer and then only scored on a penalty in another 1-1 draw with Real Betis. Since then, it’s been back to back losses. Cadiz has not scored in any of the last four fixtures with Celta Vigo. 8* Celta Vigo

10* Hertha Berlin (2:30 ET): After starting 0-3, Hertha Berlin picked up its first win of the Bundesliga campaign last week by beating VfL Bochum 3-1. This week they’ll face the other newly promoted side in the German top flight, Greuther Furth, who might just be the weakest side in all of Europe’s top four leagues. This is an excellent opportunity for Hertha Berlin to pick up three points and move away from the relegation zone, a place they finished dangerously close to a season ago. They ended up 14th, but only two points clear, due to a rocky finish that was heavily impacted by COVID. I won’t take them very often in 2021/22, but they are a solid play Friday. 

Gruether Furth is the side that “keeps on giving” as I’ve gone against them in each of the last two fixtures and come away with easy victories. Back before the international break, they lost 3-0 to Mainz. Then last weekend it was a 2-0 loss to first place Wolfsburg. In retrospect, the prices I got on those opponents seem almost too good to be true. As I said earlier, Furth looks to be easily the weakest side in the Bundesliga this season and maybe the worst team in any of Europe’s big four leagues. They were thoroughly dominated by Wolfsburg last week, losing the possession battle 71-29 percent. The only time Furth has been able to earn a point this year was when they were matched up against Arminia Bielefeld, who was down to 10 men for the final 20 minutes. 

Since earning promotion last May, Furth has yet to win a single match! They had an embarrassing elimination in the DFB-Pokal at the hands of an amateur side. Having not scored a single goal B2B fixtures while also conceding 11 times on the season, things are looking really dire right now for the team at the foot of the table. Remember that this is just the club’s second season ever in the Bundesliga. The first, back in 2013, saw them finish last. Hertha Berlin’s 0-3 start wasn’t all that shocking when you consider they faced Wolfsburg and Bayern Munich, the two top teams in the table right now. They had a solid preseason which included a win over Liverpool and they advanced in the DFB-Pokal. Look for them to get the full three points here. 10* Hertha Berlin

10* Over Giants/Football Team (8:20 ET): So with last week’s 27-13 loss to Denver, the Giants have now gone Under in eight consecutive games (dating back to last season, obviously). But this week’s total is even lower than Week 1 and as you can see, the G-Men and Broncos were very close to going Over the total last Sunday. They would have gone Over had both teams not fumbled inside the red zone. The Giants’ fumble proved especially costly as they were only down 17-7 in the second half when QB Daniel Jones gave the ball away. Jones did throw for 267 yards though and account for two scores.

Washington is already on its second starting QB as Taylor Heinicke will replace Ryan Fitzpatrick. This move comes not by choice, but rather because of injury. Fitzpatrick will miss as many as eight weeks due to sustaining a hip injury in last week’s 20-16 loss to the Chargers. I thought, given the circumstances, that Heinicke performed admirably last week. He completed 11 of 15 passes for 122 yards and a touchdown. Remember that he started last year’s playoff game against Tampa Bay. While the Football Team went down to the (eventual Super Bowl champion) Bucs that day, 31-23, don’t blame Heinicke. He actually threw for 300+ yards in the loss. The Giants’ defense he faces this week isn’t as good as the Bucs .. or the Chargers for that matter. 

Giants’ RB Saquon Barkley is listed as questionable, but is expected to play Thursday. Given the Giants’ history against Washington, maybe they don’t even need him. They’ve beaten their old division rival five straight times, the last four all coming with Jones as the starter. Jones has thrown for eight touchdowns in the four wins. Look for him to develop more of a rapport with WR Kenny Golladay, who had four catches for 64 yards last week. Based on them allowing 400+ yards last week against the Chargers, I think it’s fair to say this Washington defense may not be as strong as it was a year ago. These teams are a combined 14-4 their L18 TNF games. 10* Over Giants/Football Team

8* Washington (8:20 ET): Both teams are off deflating Week 1 losses. In the case of Washington, not only did they lose the game 20-16 to the LA Chargers, but they also lost starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to a hip injury that could keep him on the shelf for as many as eight weeks. But I think the offense will be in decent hands here with Taylor Heinicke stepping in as the new starter. While this is the first time in his NFL career that Heinicke is going to be a starter for any length of time, remember what he did in last year’s playoff start against Tampa Bay. He threw for 306 yards! Perhaps an even bigger story than Heinicke is that the Football Team is looking to snap a five-game losing streak to the Giants. I think they get their revenge Thursday. Lay the points. 

As they were for so much of last season, the Giants’ offense looked rather lifeless in a 27-13 loss to Denver in Week 1. They gained only 314 total yards and had just one touchdown before the final play of the game. Now what’s a little misleading there is that there was a drive earlier in the second half where QB Daniel Jones fumbled in the red zone. But still, it wasn’t a great showing from a Giants’ offense that ranked 31st in the league in scoring a year ago. Also concerning was the Giants’ defense surrendered 420 yards to a Broncos’ offense that isn’t exactly regarded as one of the league’s best. They could have given up more points, but the Broncos also had a red zone turnover. I expect Heinicke to be able to move the ball in his first regular season start in three years. 

I know that the Giants are on a 16-4 ATS run as road underdogs, but eventually Washington is going to beat them. It was rather stunning that the Giants swept last year’ season series given they finished 6-10 while Washington won the division. Granted, they won the division with a 7-9 SU record, but they were definitely a better team than the G-Men in 2020. The last three Giants wins over the Football team have all been by fewer than three points or in overtime. Washington actually outgained them in both games last season. Heinicke played the entire second half last week, completing 11 of 15 passes and won’t be “coming in cold” this time. The Giants’ defense gave up a league worst 5.9 yards per rush last week. Also, had Antonio Gibson not fumbled inside his own 5-yard line last week, Washington probably would have won! 8* Washington

10* Under Tigers/Rays (7:10 ET): This is a rematch from last weekend, a series in which the Tigers surprisingly won two of the three games. The three games were all pretty high-scoring. Each had nine or more total runs scored with the two Tigers’ wins seeing 14 and 15 total runs scored. Detroit continued to play the role of spoiler earlier this week by Milwaukee twice. So that’s four wins in five games for them, all against current division leaders. But all the wins also came at home where they are now a respectable 39-36 on the year. I expect them to struggle more on the road this weekend, especially at the plate. 

Tampa Bay is still going to be fine, even after losing two of three in Toronto to start the week. Their lead in the AL East is still eight games and they are the only team in the American League with 90 wins on the season. They could not get much offense going in Toronto though and that’s a bit of a concern. The Rays scored just six runs in the three games. Now they face a pitching staff that held Milwaukee to just one run and seven hits the last two days. It’ll be Tyler Alexander starting for the Tigers and not only did he just hold the Rays to one run in 4 ⅓ IP last week, he has a 1.80 ERA and 1.133 WHIP his L3 starts.

But for Tampa Bay, the best thing about being back home is that they don’t give up many runs here. They allow just 3.3 per game, the fewest by any AL team. Opponents are batting just .216 for the year at Tropicana Field. Kevin Cash will go with an opener on Thursday night, Louis Head, before giving the baseball to Dietrich Enns. Enns looked dominant the last time we saw him as he tossed four shutout innings and didn’t even allow a single baserunner. He had six strikeouts as well. The Tigers only scored five runs the last two days and two of the last four games have seen them finish with only three hits. This has all the makings of a low-scoring series opener. 10* Under Tigers/Rays

7* Atlanta (7:20 ET): Colorado has won four of five - all on the road. That’s odd considering they are still a terrible 22-51 away from home this season. I just can’t see this recent road “surge” continuing against a Braves team I have a lot of respect for. It was about a month ago that I predicted the Braves were about to make a move in the NL East and that’s exactly what happened. Since August 2nd, they’ve gone 24-13 and have taken a 4.5 game division lead. My confidence in them stems from a YTD run differential that’s vastly superior to the rest of the teams in their division. They’ve outscored opponents by 99 runs in 2021 while every other NL East club has been outscored. Look for the Braves to win Wednesday.

It was 5-4 Rockies last night, although the Braves had one more hit. Colorado typically struggles to score runs when they’re not swinging the bats in Coors Field. They average just 3.4 runs per game on the road while batting a collective .215. The 2.4 rpg gap between what they average at home vs. the road is easily the largest in all of MLB. The striking home vs. road split is nothing new for this franchise, but this year has seen them take it to a bit of an extreme. Speaking of struggling on the road, Wednesday’s starter Antonio Senzatela has a 2-9 team start record away from home. He’s been good recently, including a win over the Braves earlier this month, but I don’t expect that to continue here. 

Atlanta will send Huascar Ynoa to the mound tonight. You wouldn’t know it from his rather pedestrian WL record, but Ynoa has pitched very well this season, especially at home where he has a 2.45 ERA and 0.843 WHIP. Ynoa came out on the losing end against Senzatela on September 3rd, so he’s got a little “personal revenge” to exact Wednesday. Ynoa allowed just two runs on three hits over 5 IP last Thursday against Washington, a game that the Braves won 7-6. The Braves have lost B2B games only one time in September. While those losses were both against Colorado, that was in Coors Field. The Rockies are just 14-44 as a road underdog of +175 to +250 the L3 seasons. 7* Atlanta

10* NY Mets (7:10 ET): I lost with the Mets yesterday. It was a painful defeat as Javy Baez tied the game 4-4 in the bottom of the ninth with a HR. But it wasn’t meant to be as the home team failed to score in the 10th (despite having a runner at third with only one out) and then the Cardinals struck back for three runs in the top of the 11th. The Mets did manage to score twice in their final at-bat, but that still left them one short. They now are four games back of the Braves for the division lead and 5.5 games behind the Cardinals for the Wild Card. Meanwhile, the Cards have won four in a row to move to six games over .500 for the first time in over three months. But this feels like a “sell high” opportunity as they still have a near-identical YTD run differential as the Mets. 

The Mets normally don’t give up a ton of runs here at Citi Field. The 3.5 per game that they allow are the third fewest of any team at home in all of MLB. Only the Dodgers and Rays - two of the best teams - allow fewer. Opposing teams have hit just .216 here for the season. So it’s definitely been surprising to see St. Louis come in and put up seven runs in two straight games. It’s not like the Cardinals are some offensive powerhouse either. The good news for the Mets is that Tylor Megill, who is starting today, is coming off perhaps his best outing of the season. He held the Yankees to just two runs and four hits over seven innings last Friday and had 10 strikeouts. 

The Mets are 20-7 as home favorites of -125 to -175 this season, so if Megill can produce a start similar to what we saw from him his last time out, then you’ve got to figure they’ll be in good shape here. They led going into the eighth inning last night and I thought they should have won it in the 10th. Unfortunately, Francisco Lindor’s inning-ending double play was a killer. The Mets will face Jon Lester tonight and while Lester has been good of late, he has a 4.96 ERA and 1.677 WHIP on the road, so I am expecting some regression. The Mets have had poor luck in one-run games down the stretch (4-15 L19), but I think they are due for a win in this one. Look for them to avoid the sweep at home. 10* NY Mets

8* Boston (4:10 ET): I generally do not hesitate to fade Seattle, though this will be my first time taking a position in this series. Now I know that betting against the Mariners has generally not been wise in 2021. They are up 26.3 units, which is second most overall, only trailing a Giants team that is way out in front of everybody. But I’ve been selective about going against them and actually have a pretty strong record to show for it. As I’ve made clear throughout the year, the M’s are completely overrated and nowhere near as good as their record (now 78-65). They’ve been outscored by 60 runs, a differential where you’d expect them to only have 66 wins. No other team in MLB has exceeded its expected win total by more than five! 

Mariners’ manager Scott Servais using the term “fun differential” (to mock his team’s poor run differential) quite frankly makes me nauseous. So I was happy to see his team lose 8-4 last night here at home to the Red Sox. That was after they won by one-run in Monday’s opener. No team has more one-run wins this season than Seattle’s 31, which is why they are the only team in the American League to have a winning record and negative run differential. The offense ranks dead last in baseball in batting average plus they are bottom five in both OBP and slugging. This afternoon’s starting pitcher Marco Gonzales does have a 6-0 TSR since 8/12, but he’s faced both Texas and Arizona twice. 

Boston, like Seattle, is trying to nail down one of the two Wild Card spots. I like their chances a lot better compared to the Mariners’. The Red Sox offense is third in batting average and second in slugging. They’ve scored the fourth most runs in all of baseball. Tanner Houck, who had a great September last year, has bounced back and forth between the big leagues and Triple-A here in 2021. Looking back at those offensive numbers for Seattle, this may be Houck’s most favorable matchup of this season. The Red Sox are simply a much better team than the Mariners and Gonzales has not fared well against them in the past (5.87 ERA in three career starts). 8* Boston

8* San Francisco (9:40 ET): The Giants hammered the Padres Monday night, 9-1, thus preserving their lead in the NL West (2.5 games over the Dodgers) while simultaneously knocking the Padres out of a tie (w/ the Reds) for the second Wild Card spot. Last night’s win also got them into the playoffs. They are the first team in baseball to clinch a postseason spot. San Diego is desperately trying to make it three teams from the NL West in the playoffs (Dodgers are a lock), but they’ve been a sub-.500 team in the second half of the season and as a result are -29.6 units at the betting window, second worst in all of MLB! 

Meanwhile, the Giants have won eight in a row and have the best overall record in baseball. While the Padres have been huge money-burners this season (see above), the Giants are #1 in the league (by a wide margin) at +39.8 units. They’ve been priced as a 91-win team, so they’re winning the games they’re supposed to win. Compare that to the Padres, who have been priced as a 115-win team, but have won only 74 times. The Giants are the only team to have 45+ wins both at home and on the road. They’ve dominated the division (42-19) and are 61-33 off a win this season.

As they look to make it nine straight wins, San Francisco turns to Anthony DeSclafani. Winless over his L4 starts, DeSclafani will relish the opportunity to face an opponent that is hitting below .200 (.189) its L7 games while scoring an average of just 2.4 runs. He generally doesn’t allow more than 3 ER and has an 8-3 TSR at home. San Diego’s rotation happens to be in tatters right now, which is why you have the likes of Jake Arrieta starting a big game. Arrieta has an 0-10 TSR his L10 outings and has a 7.03 ERA/1.722 WHIP this season. The Giants have scored six or more runs in each of their eight straight wins. This one seems simple, no? 8* San Francisco

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): In the American League, you’ve got five teams fighting for two Wild Card sports. Here in the National League, it’s five teams fighting for one spot. Whoever doesn’t win the NL West (Giants or Dodgers) will be the top WC and there’s currently a 16.5 game gap between them and the rest of the WC field. The Cardinals and Mets are two of the five battling for that last spot and there’s no doubt which team is happier following last night’s 7-0 game. The former is now on a three-game win streak and has moved within one-half game of the WC. The latter is now 3.5 games back (and a game under .500) after being blanked Monday. But I see the home team getting its revenge tonight. 

This is a bad matchup for St. Louis.. Not only are the Redbirds 5-17 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +175, but they will be facing Marcus Stroman, who has a 2.87 ERA in 30 starts. There have only been a few occasions this season where Stroman has given up more than 3 ER. It hasn’t happened over any of his L7 starts and the last one saw Stroman go 6 ⅓ innings while allowing just one run on four hits. He also had seven strikeouts and no walks. Sadly, the Mets lost that game to Miami (3-2), but they had previously won three straight Stroman starts. St. Louis is only hitting .206 its L7 games and scoring an average of 2.9 rpg. In more than half (6) of their L10 games they’ve been held to two runs or fewer. 

Last night marked the 13th time this season that the Mets were shutout. They are 6-6 off their previous 12 times. However, look for them to have a strong bounce back night at the plate here. They are 5-1 off their last six losses. They will be facing Jake Woodford, who is making just his fifth start of the year. It’s a big spot for him. Woodford has averaged only four innings per start his last three times out while posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.833 WHIP. I bring that up because the Cardinals’ bullpen will obviously be asked to carry a significant part of the load tonight. While they were surprisingly up to the task Monday, that was for only three innings. The Cards’ bullpen ERA is 4.73 on the road this season. 8* NY Mets

10* Under Ravens/Raiders (8:15 ET): Over the course of training camp, no team was hit harder by injuries than Baltimore. The running back position in particular has suffered some incredible attrition. It began with JK Dobbins to a season-ending knee injury. Then Dobbins’ backup Justice Hill suffered an Achilles injury. With their two top running backs done for the year before a meaningful game had even been played, the Ravens next turned to Gus Edwards. Guess what? He too suffered a serious knee injury in practice Thursday, the same day that CB Marcus Peters also sustained a knee injury! 

With all these injuries at the RB position, there will be tremendous pressure on QB Lamar Jackson to produce this year. Being that he is a former MVP, it’s not like Jackson is doomed. But Jackson and the offense took a step back in 2020 despite facing a relatively weak set of pass defenses. They dropped down to 27.3 PPG overall and 25.2 on the road. Had it not been for a high success rate on third downs and in the red zone, the offense's numbers probably would have dropped even further. With Ty’Son Edwards and Le’Veon Bell set to be the Ravens’ only available running backs, that dimension of the offense simply will not be as strong as it was in years’ past. 

Las Vegas will finally get to play in front of fans in Allegiant Stadium (opened last year) Monday night. QB Derek Carr might have a 4-2 SU record on MNF but has posted a 46.0 QBR in those games, which is well below average. One area that I am not really worried about Baltimore is on defense. They allowed only 18.5 PPG last year. The Raiders’ receiving corps is not very good and the running game will probably be worse in 2020 due to the loss of three starting offensive linemen from a year ago. Yes, the Over was 13-3 in LV games last season. But now it’s 2021 and things will be different. 10* Under Ravens/Raiders

10* Everton (3:00 ET): Everton can join Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool at the top of the Premier League table with a win Monday. Those three English heavyweights are all 3-1-0 through four weeks and Everton would share in that record if they take the full three points here from also-ran Burnley. I like their chances as it’s been a tremendous start to the season with wins over Southampton (3-1) and Brighton & Hove Albion (2-0) sandwiched around a 2-2 draw with Newcastle. Having scored at least twice in every match on the young season has the Toffees poised to make it three straight on the bounce at home. 

Burnley, as per usual, is sitting near the bottom of the table with just one point taken from their first three fixtures. That point came from a 1-1 draw with Leeds United two weeks ago, right before the international break. But before that it was a 2-0 loss to Liverpool and a 2-1 loss to Brighton. This is a side that finished 17th in the table a year ago, only one spot clear of the relegation zone. Once again, it’s going to be a fight this year to remain in the English top flight. The Clarets’ last four Premier League wins have all come on the road surprisingly, but they’d lost five straight overall before the draw with Leeds. 

In addition to the three teams that already have 10 points, you’ve got LY’s Champions (Man City), an improved Brighton and a Tottenham club that started 3-0. West Ham has looked pretty good as well with 10 goals scored so far. So the top half of the Premier League table is looking strong this season. In order to have any chance of finishing in the top four, Everton MUST win fixtures like this one. They certainly remember losing 2-1 to Burnley here at Goodison Park last season. The memory of that embarrassing result should have them properly motivated come Monday evening. I can’t see history repeating itself this time. 10* Everton

8* Run Line Minnesota (2:05 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Twins +1.5. What a terrible spot this is for the Yankees. They wrapped up their series with the Mets last night (and lost) and now head back home for a one-game series with Minnesota before heading back out to Baltimore. This is obviously a make-up game as the teams were rained out on 8.22. New York had taken the first three games of that series, so it’s a huge break for the Twins to play the final game now, less than 14 hours after the Yankees last played a game. They’ll do no worse than a one-run loss here. 

Things were going much better for the Pinstripes back in late August. Their three wins over the Twins were part of a 13-game streak that had the team well-positioned to earn a Wild Card spot. But now they’ve dropped eight of nine overall and the one win was by one run. It was a one-run loss to the Mets Sunday night, thanks to three Francisco Lindor home runs, and that leaves the Yanks one game out of Wild Card position. As for their future prospects, I’m not too keen as they have an inferior run differential compared to the Blue Jays, Red Sox and A’s. On the mound this afternoon will be Luis Gil, making just his fifth career big league start. Gil issued SEVEN walks his last time out in a 6-3 loss to Toronto. 

With Minnesota, you have to remember that this was a team pegged to be a playoff contender at the start of the year. That they are -24.6 units at the betting window is a clear reflection of what a disappointment 2021 has been. Yesterday’s 5-3 loss to the Royals leaves them in last place in the AL Central (63-80), but they were just 1 for 8 w/ RISP in that game and should do better in that situation today against Gil. The Twins starter for Monday, John Gant, threw five shutout innings his last time out. That was in Cleveland. The Yankees have scored four runs or less in 8 of their last 11 games and are the lowest scoring contending team in the American League. 8* Run Line Minnesota

10* Over Bears/Rams (8:25 ET): The Rams went Under in every home game last season (8-0). But with an offense that should be better and a defense that is likely to be worse (compared to last season, that is), I look for that streak to come to an end in Week 1 vs. the Bears. Matthew Stafford is now the QB1 for the Rams, replacing Jared Goff. This is a clear upgrade in my eyes. Stafford lost RB Cam Akers to an injury in the preseason, but the Rams have averaged 32.2 PPG in four season openers under HC Sean McVay. Even with the Bears’ defense being well regarded, look for the Rams to put up points on SNF. 

Bears HC Matt Nagy has made the curious decision to go with Andy Dalton as his starting QB for the season opener. Everyone in Chicago wants to see Justin Fields, but they’ll have to wait apparently. Dalton’s career record in primetime may not be good, but I do think the Bears will score more than expected in this game. That may sound strange considering the Rams had the top ranked defense in the league a year ago. But down the stretch last season, Nagy got his offense humming. They scored 30+ points in four straight games, something that no other Bears team had ever done and that was with Mitch Trubisky playing quarterback. 

This is actually the fourth straight season that these teams will be playing in primetime. The home team has won every time with the Rams holding a 2-1 SU/ATS series edge. All three games have stayed Under, none of them seeing more than 34 total points scored. But it’s a new season with new players and I really think it’s going to be different this time around. I don’t think either defense will be as good as last year. The Rams lost four starters on that side of the ball to free agency. The Bears’ secondary is a real weak spot and remember Stafford knows this team well. 10* Over Bears/Rams

8* Cleveland (4:25 ET): This is a rematch from last year’s playoffs. Kansas City won that game 22-17, but it was Cleveland leaving with the cash as 7.5-point underdogs. The Browns aren’t quite as large of a dog this time around, despite the fact they will be facing Patrick Mahomes for a full 60 minutes. If you recall, Mahomes left that playoff game with a concussion, forcing Chad Henne into duty. The Chiefs were lucky to hold on that day, but I don’t think they’ll be as fortunate Sunday as Cleveland looks like a serious contender in 2021 and I give them a great shot at pulling the outright upset. Take the points here.

Kansas City won 16 of its 19 games last year, but all anyone remembers is them losing the big one - 31-9 to Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LV. What you may have forgotten is that the Chiefs were a bad bet down the stretch, failing to cover 9 of their last 11 games. They were extremely fortunate to go 9-0 SU in games decided by seven points or less last season. I think the offensive line is a major question mark entering this season as all five starters are new. Cleveland has one of the better defensive lines in the league and is capable of getting to Mahomes the same way the Bucs did in February. 

The Browns have not won a season opener since 2004 (0-15-1 SU), so that’s added motivation on top of looking to avenge LY’s playoff loss. Odell Beckham Jr is back healthy, so the offense should be more dynamic. This is not your “older brother’s Browns” any longer as this is one of the few games this year where they will be an underdog. They have the best running game in the league. With the most expensive offense in the league (even with Mayfield still on a team-friendly rookie deal), they are going to put up points. Everyone seems to be assuming the Chiefs are going to roll here, but I think that’s flawed thinking. Look for the Browns to surprise here and prove they are the “real deal.” 8* Cleveland

10* Roma (3:00 ET): I’ll keep backing Roma as the Giallorossi look to continue their exceptional start to the Serie A season. Through two weeks, they’ve looked as impressive as any side in the league. They are one of five clubs to take the full six points heading into this weekend. It was a 3-1 win over Fiorentina followed by a 4-0 beatdown of recently promoted Salernitana. Roma has now won four straight across all competitions for new boss Jose Mourinho (including a pair of wins in Europa League qualifying) with an aggregate score of 12-2. Make it five in a row Sunday as they host Sassuolo. 

The visitors have been in the middle of the Serie A table for years now. It was B2B 11th place finishes in 2017-18 & 2018-19 followed by B2B 8th place finishes the last two seasons. They should finish in the middle again here in 2021/22 and true to form have started this campaign with a win and a draw. They beat Hellas Verona 3-2 and then had to settle for a scoreless draw with Sampdoria. Sharing the points in that second match had to be extremely frustrating considering that Sassuolo dominated possession of the ball and had 19 shots on goal. But they couldn’t put any of them in the back of the net.

Sassuolo has won five straight away matches - a club record - but this will clearly be their most difficult matchup to date. Roma is rolling under Mourinho and can now win a sixth straight home game, something the club has not done since 2017. Mourinho, who always seems to have an eye on personal achievement, is also in position to win his first five fixtures with the new club. That is something that he has NEVER done before in his coaching career. He’ll be motivated to set the mark. Remember what I wrote previously - Mourinho has the second best points per game ratio of any manager in Serie A this century. Roma gets the full three here. 10* Roma 

10* Over Rockies/Phillies (1:05 ET): I won with the Phillies yesterday. They homered three times en route to a 6-1 victory. The win was much needed for them as they’d dropped the first two games of this series with the Rockies and were starting to fall off the pace in the races for the 2nd NL Wild Card and the NL East pennant. The Phils enter Sunday 2.5 and 3.5 games back in those respective races. Colorado, a non-contender that’s 20-51 on the road, is a team they should obviously beat again. But I like this game’s chances of going Over more than I do Philadelphia winning. 

Aaron Nola has pitched pretty well at home for Philly this season. But he’s also been plagued by inconsistency all throughout 2021. He comes in with a 6.91 ERA over his L3 starts, largely due to a poor effort in Washington on September 2nd where he gave up six runs in four innings. Nola has a 4.57 ERA for the season and each of those last three starts have gone Over. I know that the Rockies typically don’t do much scoring on the road. But they did score 11 runs here on Friday. The Over is 10-4-1 in their L15 games at Philadelphia. Nola has given up five or more runs six different times in 2021. 

Colorado better score plenty of runs today, if they have any hopes of winning. I say this because they probably shouldn’t expect much from starter Ryan Feltner. Feltner will be making just his second career start on Sunday. This is someone who was pitching in Double-A not all that long ago. On the very first pitch of his big-league career, Feltner allowed a home run. He’d go on to allow a total of six runs in 2 ⅔ IP in that start, including three home runs. Something else to consider is that both of these teams have bad bullpens. 10* Over Rockies/Phillies

10* Minnesota (1:00 ET): The Vikings are a team that I’m fairly high on for 2021. Most key indicators say they’ll improve upon LY’s disappointing 7-9 SU finish. It was a clear rebuilding year in 2020. The defense, which lost several key contributors due to the salary cap, slipped all the way down to 29th in scoring. That’s very uncharacteristic for a Mike Zimmer stop unit. The Vikes were also unlucky when it came to special teams and third & fourth down relative to success on early downs. Don’t be surprised to see the defense bounce back this year. The offense should be very good again. A Wild Card is certainly not out of the question for this team. I expect them to open the regular season with a big road win at Cincinnati. 

The Bengals were 4-11-1 SU last season and finished dead last in the AFC North. They were the only team from their division that didn’t make the playoffs. Losing QB Joe Burrow early in the season didn’t help. But it’s not like there’s a ton of talent on hand for Zac Taylor, who seems to be one of the weaker head coaches in the NFL. Burrow is set to return for Week 1 and has a strong group of receivers. But he only took a few snaps in the preseason and it remains to be seen how he looks against “real competition” after suffering a serious injury. There are eight new starters in Cincinnati as well. I would be shocked if the Bengals didn’t finish in last place again this season. This could be Taylor’s last season. 

Minnesota comes into 2021 on the longest ATS losing streak in the league. They failed to cover their final seven games last year. But Zimmer is 14-8 ATS all-time in the regular season as a road favorite. As many of you know, I’m not a big fan of taking road favorites in the NFL. But this looks like a line we can exploit in Week 1. If I’m right about the Vikings’ improving, then this is a game they should win. Kirk Cousins threw for 4,265 yards and 35 touchdowns LY and has a tremendous group of skill position players around him, including RB Dalvin Cook, who should have no problem cutting through a Bengals defense that gave up a league-worst 5.2 YPC “up the gut” last season. The Bengals have won only one of Burrow’s nine starts. 10* Minnesota

8* Detroit (1:00 ET): The Lions figure to be one of the more “unpopular” sides in Week 1. Very little is being expected in Dan Campbell’s first season on the job and sure enough the team has the lowest projected win total in the NFC (second lowest overall). But this is a big spread for the opening week of the season, especially considering the Lions are playing at home. I’m well aware that San Francisco should be one of the league’s most improved teams for 2021, but that was built into a line that has since been bet up even higher. The 49ers are just the third team in the last 20 seasons to be a Week 1 road favorite of at least seven points coming off a losing season. The previous two both lost their games outright! 

Not saying Detroit will get the SU win here, but it is also worth noting that SF has lost outright the last five times it has been a favorite. Kyle Shanahan is just 7-16-2 ATS as a favorite as the HC of the 49ers, including 1-7-1 ATS when laying at least a touchdown. So all things considered, this line appears to be a case of “putting the cart before the horse.” Again, I expect the Niners to be improved and win double digit games. Basically everything - from injuries to turnover margin - went wrong for them in the 2020 season. But that doesn’t mean they’re ready to go out and win by more than one score on the road in Week 1. 

The Lions have a new QB in Jared Goff. He’s viewed by most as a downgrade from the player he was traded for, Matthew Stafford. But don’t be surprised if Goff, who has started a Super Bowl before, exceeds his relatively low expectations. Campbell’s defense should absolutely be better this year (how can it not be?). I think the underdog is going to play “loose” in the season opener while the Niners may very well be overconfident. Take the points. 8* Detroit

8* Torino (9:00 AM ET): Through the first two weeks of the Serie A season, four clubs are still without a point. Two of them will meet on the pitch Sunday here in Torino. The hosts have suffered back to back 2-1 setbacks, first at the hands of Atalanta (game-winner coming in stoppage time) and then Fiorentina. Meanwhile, newly promoted Salernitana has predictably struggled, conceding more goals (7) than everyone besides Spezia through two weeks. Their return to the Italian top flight (after a 22-year absence!) began with a 3-2 loss to Bologna. Then came a 4-0 thrashing at the hands of Roma, which was a win for me. I’ll play against them again here. 

Torino is on its fifth manager in three years, which is what happens when you’re coming off back to back bottom five finishes in the table. It was a 16th place finish in 2019/20 for the Granata as they were only five points clear of relegation. They slipped a spot to 17th last year and were only four points clear of the drop zone. However, I happen to think Torino was better than their record showed in 2020/21 as their expected point total said they were more of a mid-table side. They were also the “kings of the draw” with a Serie A-high 16, a distinction no one wants. With the B2B losses to open this campaign, pressure is starting to mount on new boss Ivan Juric as his club looks to avoid an 0-3 start for the second straight season. 

Before LY, Torino had started a Serie A season 0-3 only one time (2002). Juric is on an 11-match winless streak on the Serie A sidelines, going back to his time with Verona. So this is a really critical fixture for the home side. Fortunately, it’s the ideal matchup to get off the mat as last year’s Serie B runners up have the dubious dishonor of having both the lowest possession rate and passing accuracy in the league so far. Torino gets the full three points. 8* Torino

8* Washington (8:00 ET): I understand that Washington just lost to a FCS school (Montana) and now has to travel cross-country to the Big House to face Michigan. But the line move for this matchup seems pretty severe considering UW was a preseason top 20 team and Michigan has become somewhat of a Big 10 “afterthought” under Jim Harbaugh. Should a 47-14 win against Western Michigan inspire this much confidence in the Wolverines? I don’t think so, especially considering they just lost star WR Ronnie Bell (who doubles as the kick returner) to a season-ending injury. Take the points Saturday night in Ann Arbor. 

The wide receiver position was very thin for Washington heading into the season opener. But still, that’s no excuse for losing to Montana and getting held to their lowest point total at home in 11 years. With the receiver group badly banged up, QB Dylan Morris didn’t help his team by tossing three interceptions. He was also sacked three times, despite playing behind what was thought to be one of the top offensive lines in the country. Bottom line is that 2nd year HC Jimmy Lake called the 13-7 defeat the most “embarrassing loss in the history of the program.” I’d expect the Huskies to come out strong here. 

With the receiver group still a question mark, Washington needs to commit to the run Saturday night. Of course, as I mentioned earlier, Michigan also just lost its best WR. So this could very well turn into a low-scoring game dominated by the defenses. That’s all the more reason to take the points in my eyes. Michigan QB Cade McNamara threw only 11 times for 136 yards last week. This line was close to a pick ‘em on the lookahead line. I just don’t see why the Wolverines should now be laying a touchdown. They are just 2-6 SU their L8 games vs. Power 5 teams and 1-11 ATS its L12 games vs. the Pac 12. 8* Washington

10* Under Marlins/Braves (7:20 ET): Atlanta is a big favorite on the ML Saturday night and for good reason. They beat the Marlins 6-2 on Friday and have Charlie Morton set to go tonight. Morton is 13-5 this season and is coming off B2B quality starts where he gave up a total of three runs and five hits in 13 IP. Both of those starts came on the road, but fear not - Morton has a 1.128 WHIP at home. His previous two starts against Miami have seen him go six innings and allow two runs on three hits, then seven innings while allowing no runs and two hits. It figures to be another long night at the plate for a Miami team that struck out 17 times on Friday. 

But with the ML being so high, we’re forced to scramble for other options here. I like the Under here as the Braves scored five of their six runs in one inning yesterday. They’ve struck out 10 or more times in three straight games. Miami has struck out 10+ times in six of their last eight games, so there’s been a lot of “swinging and missing” from these teams of late. Atlanta probably is a bit lucky to have scored 13 runs in their last two games on 17 hits. Elieser Hernandez, who starts today for Miami, has 1.67 ERA in nine career appearances vs. the Braves. 

Hernandez normally doesn’t go more than five innings, but it’s worth noting that he’s given up more than ER only once in six tries this year. The Under has hit three of the last four times he has started. I still expect the home team to win today (obviously) and given that feeling, it is very likely we won’t have to play the bottom of the ninth. That’s always a boon when holding an Under ticket and with Miami scoring three runs or fewer in eight of its last 10 games, this figures to be another low-scoring contest. The Under is 5-0 in the Marlins’ L5 games where they’d given up 5+ runs in the previous game. 10* Under Marlins/Braves

6* Philadelphia (6:05 ET): It wasn’t that long ago that I was looking to fade the Phillies. My 10* Game of the Month for September was on the opposite side of them Tuesday, with the Brewers, and that was a 10-0 win for me. Philadelphia hasn’t won since. The losing skid has now hit four games as they not only lost again in Milwaukee Wednesday, but have also dropped two in a row here at home to Colorado. There’s never a good time to be on a losing streak, but this one in particular is ill-timed for the Phils as they’ve fallen 3.5 games back of the Wild Card and 4.5 games back of the division lead.

But with Zack Wheeler on the bump Saturday, look for Philly to get back on track. I learned my lesson with Wheeler on Monday when I tried fading him vs. Milwaukee. That one did NOT work out for me as Wheeler led a shocking 12-0 win. That’s the last time the Phillies won. Wheeler had been struggling a bit heading into that start in Milwaukee (part of the reason I faded him), but he bounced back with a marvelous effort of six scoreless innings. That marked the 8th time in 2021 that Wheeler went at least six innings and didn’t give up a run. No NL pitcher has done that more times. Wheeler also has a 2.49 ERA and 0.857 WHIP at home this season. 

Everyone knows how bad Colorado is on the road. They had just 18 road wins all year coming into this series. So it’s always a shock to see them win two in a row away from Coors Field. Only Arizona has fewer road wins this season. Thursday saw the Rockies win the game in the ninth inning (4-3) and then Friday was a total aberration (11-2). The Rockies score just 3.4 rpg on the road (hitting .214), so this figures to be another dominant Wheeler start as Colorado’s hitters predictably regress back to “normal levels.” The Rockies starter for this game is Kyle Freeland and he really struggled last time out, giving up seven runs and four homers in a 10-5 loss to the Giants. 6* Philadelphia

10* Iowa State (4:30 ET): Watching how the games unfolded last Saturday afternoon, I figured Iowa would end up being a pretty popular side in the battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy this week at Iowa State. Turns out that I was completely correct. The public sentiment is understandable considering how the Hawkeyes dismantled Indiana 34-6 in Week 1 while ISU struggled to get by FCS Northern Iowa. But the Cyclones, a top ten team in the preseason rankings, should not be cast aside so quickly. They have plenty of reasons to be motivated come Saturday afternoon and I absolutely love them laying a short number. 

The first reason Iowa State is going to be motivated come 4:30 ET in Ames is that ESPN College Gameday will be on campus for the first ever ranked vs. ranked meeting between these schools in the AP era. Now that also gives Iowa plenty of reason to be motivated here. But it’s the Cyclones looking to avenge five straight losses in this rivalry. The last time they met was 2019 and it was a one-point win for Iowa (18-17) here in Ames. This will be the first time since 2000 that Iowa State is set to go off as the favorite. They are 15-7 ATS vs. Top 25 opponents under HC Matt Campbell.

While Iowa’s Week 1 win was impressive, note that they got TWO pick-sixes in that win. They only outgained Indiana by 0.5 yards per play and did not score an offensive TD over the final 40 minutes of gametime. That game was also played in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes are now 16-1 SU the L17 times they have been a favorite of six points or less. But here they are underdogs on the road and they are just 1-7 ATS L8 in that situation. Yes, Kirk Ferentz’s team has not been beaten by more than one score since a 28-17 loss to Wisconsin early in the 2018 season. But Iowa State has QB Brock Purdy, RB Breece Hall and a defense that has allowed just 16 total points in the second half of its L6 games. 10* Iowa State