10* Indianapolis (8:25 ET):  I fully realize that the world is expecting the Patriots to come in with a vengeance here and take the Colts behind the "woodshed."  But considering the Colts were -3 for this matchup back in the preseason, I'd say we now have some substantial value to work with.  In his career, Andrew Luck has been a home dog six times.  He has won all six of those games outright w/ the team winning by a combined 33 points! He has never closed as a home dog of more than a touchdown previously.  Though they covered last week against an anemic Cowboys team, the Patriots are still only 3-7 ATS as a road favorite of more than a field goal. Though they haven't shown it so far, let's not forget that the Colts were being tabbed as Super Bowl contenders prior to the start of the year.

There is no denying that the Patriots have dominated the Colts, time after time, and that has played a significant role in this line.  New England is no fluke at 4-0, but consider the last two games have seen them play a terrible Jacksonville team as well as Dallas w/o Romo.  Prior to that, their two wins were by a combined 15 points.  With everyone seemingly calling for the blowout here, I have the sneaky suspicion that it won't happen.  Double digit favorites (on the road no less) w/ this much public support are typically money burners.  New England's pass protection was not good last week and I still have concerns with their secondary.

Yes, the Colts won both games w/ Luck out of the lineup.  But there is no denying they are a better team w/ him in the lineup.  They should be the team that's motivated here, not the Patriots, given the recent history of this rivalry.  Indianapolis is 15-5 SU at home the L3 seasons.  Take advantage of the dramatic swing in public perception here as all the value is on the dog.  10* Indianapolis

9* Anaheim (8:05 ET):  We're more than a week into the NHL season and still we have three winless teams.  Of course, as of two days ago, there were still seven! That means the "worm is due to turn" for the remaining three and I certainly think the most surprising of the lot is 0-3-1 Anaheim, who somehow has managed just one goal in four games!  Regression was probably inevitable for these Ducks considering they won the Pacific last year w/ 109 points despite a very weak +10 goal differential.  But they certainly are not this bad.  Tonight, they welcome in a Wild team that just handed the Kings their first victory of the season.  The Ducks swept the Wild last season, taking all three meetings. They pick up their first two points of the season tonight.

Last time out, I had the Ducks Under the total as they hosted Colorado.  For the third time this season, they were shutout.  What is incredible about that is they are averaging 32.0 shots per game, a very good number. That leaves them w/ a shooting percentage of 0.8% percent, which is beyond unsustainable.  Consider that Minnesota is averaging 3.2 goals per game, but only on an average of 24.7 shots.  That's a shooting percentage of 13.7, unsustainable on the other end. Simply put, the Ducks are overdue to start having the puck find its way into the back of the net while the Wild are due to start slowing down.

In fact, Minnesota is being outshot this season. (Anaheim is not). They were outshot 32-14 by the Kings through two periods Friday night.  Not only did the Ducks sweep the Wild last year, but they have won 9 of the past 10 matchups while averaging 2.7 gpg.  I mentioned goalie Devan Dubnyk's likely regression this season in an earlier analysis and he likely will be between the pipes tonight.  Simply put, I look for a huge breakout performance from the Ducks, on home ice, tonight.  9* Anaheim

8* Chi Cubs (7:30 ET):  Though the Mets won Game 1, let's not discount the fact the Cubs were 7-0 head to head w/ them in the regular season. More importantly, they have Jake Arrieta on the hill tonight.  Even though he was well below his usual par his last time out, allowing four runs in just 5 2/3 innings pitched, he still owns a 1.74 ERA and 0.629 WHIP his last three starts.  He hadn't allowed a single run in his previous four outings, delivering a ridiculous 38-1 KW ratio.  Most impressive is that he's been at his best on the road w/ a 14-1 record (17-2 TSR), 1.49 ERA and 0.842 WHIP.  Let's also not forget that the Cubs had more road wins than every other team during the regular season. I see them earning a split tonight here at Citi Field.

I probably don't need to tell you that going back to July 30th, the Cubs are 15-0 in Arrieta starts (his ERA is 0.83!).  He has a 19-1 team start record his L20 outings.  They'd won 12 of 13 games overall prior to last night.  There, they ran into another red hot pitcher, the Mets' Matt Harvey, who limited them to just five hits on a cold night.  Regardless of the weather, this time I look for the Cubs to be carried by their starting pitching.  Arrieta has a 2.45 ERA and 20 strikeouts in his two playoff starts and against the Mets was 2-0 w/ a 1.13 ERA during the regular season. Both saw him go eight full innings and allow only one run.  For the year, he has an 18-3 TSR in night games and a 25-6 TSR as a favorite on the money line.  Again, the Cubs have not lost w/ him on the mound since late July!

Off a loss this season, the Cubs are 40-27.  Had it not been for some baserunning snafus (by the Cubs), last night's game might have gone much differently.  Noah Syndergaard provides the Game 2 opposition and his big league debut ironically came opposite Arrieta, which obviously means he lost. Syndergaard has been quite good in his own right, but the team lost his only start in the LDS (allowed three runs, four walks in 6 1/3 IP).  His only flaw here is not being as good as Arrieta, who himself was not at "his best" last time out.  It's rare to call for a "bounce back" from Arrieta, but that's what we'll have here.  8* Chi Cubs

10* Baltimore (4:25 ET): I realize that the Ravens have been thoroughly disappointing thus far (I had them last week in an outright loss, at home, to Cleveland), but I do not believe things are as bad as they seem.  For starters, every game they've played has been decided by six points or less, yet somehow they've managed to lose four times. That seems like a case of bad luck more than anything else.  Now compare the Ravens' resume to that of the 49ers, another 1-4 club, but one that has already suffered three double digit defeats and prior to last week had scored just 10 points total in B2B games. The road team seems to be severely undervalued in this one, so I say lay the points in what seems like a "get well game" for John Harbaugh's team. 

John's brother Jim I'm sure is in a surly mood following yesterday's events and I wouldn't be surprised if he proceeded to send even more "dirt" on his former team Baltimore's way. Not like the Ravens should need much help in this one, anyway. Even though many of his top weapons are battling injuries, I expect Joe Flacco to have a big game here.  49ers' opponents have averaged more than 315 yards passing (446.6 YPG allowed total) to this point w/ a 9-2 TD-INT ratio.  The 49ers have twice allowed 40+ points this season and last week gave up 525 total yards to the Giants w/ Eli Manning completing 41 of 54 pass attempts!   Remember that the Ravens also swept LY's non-conference slate.   

The loss last week to the Giants was pretty crushing for the 49ers considering they played a heck of a lot better than they had the previous three games.  But I just don't think this team is capable of playing well in B2B games, quite frankly.  Even after last week's performance, they still are averaging only 15.0 points per game, easily the fewest in the league.  In the two games prior to last week, they failed to gain even 200 total yards either time. In their last four games, the Ravens have averaged a very solid 27 PPG.  Road favorites are a RARE play for me, but you can't tell me that this line would have been this low a couple of weeks ago.  10* Baltimore

8* Buffalo (1:00 ET):  Whether or not QB Tyrod Taylor suits up for the Bills in this game is irrelevant to the play. In taking Buffalo, the quarterback position is hardly the most important factor.  Their strength lies on the other side of the ball where aside from Tom Brady and New England, they've held every opponent in check.  Furthermore, there's some really good value on the home dog here as Buffalo actually opened as a one-point point favorite, but now finds itself getting a field goal.  More often than not, when we see a change in favoritism like this, the line move comes into play. This is also a very tough spot for the Bengals, now laying points on the road, the week after a huge come from behind effort against Seattle.

A big story entering Week 6 is all the undefeated teams, Cincinnati among them.  But we've already lost one (Atlanta) Thursday and I imagine others will start dropping as well. In the past, I've talked about the "Seattle effect," which has had a good number of teams struggle the week after playing the Seahawks. At one point, teams lost 10 straight times in this role. Earlier this year, Green Bay won the week after beating Seattle, but they had the advantage of playing on Monday night.  Chicago also won its game the week after playing Seattle, but they were in the unique situation of playing as a home dog against Oakland. We all saw what happened last week w/ Detroit.  So, to summarize, that's 11 losses in 13 games for teams the week after playing the Seahawks.  The Bills are another physical team that will present many of the same matchup issues. Remember that Cincinnati trailed 24-7 at home last week. 

I realize that the Bills are dealing w/ numerous injuries on the offensive side of the ball.  They were somewhat fortunate to beat Tennessee last week (I cashed the Titans plus the points), 14-13, despite just 209 yards of total offense.  So, again, Taylor won't exactly be missed if he's not on the field Sunday.  While the Bengals may be getting touted as one of the league's best teams, let's not forget that they have three wins by five points or less and are due to start dropping a "close" game or two, given that they are 6-0-1 dating back to last year in one score games. Their defense is just 22nd against the pass (262.6 YPG) and allowed 200+ yds rushing to Seattle last week.  For the Bills, RB LeSean McCoy is now expected to play after missing the L2 games as is WR Sammy Watkins.  This one is all about taking advantage of a line move. 8* Buffalo

8* Kansas City (1:00 ET):  At first glance, this may look like a terrible spot for the visiting Chiefs. They just lost RB Jamaal Charles for the year to an ACL injury and Minnesota is off a bye. But I'm not as high on these Vikings and some others and a pretty clear case can be made that Kansas City is much better than its 1-4 record indicates.  They've had the edge (in total yards) in two of their four losses and last week I think they were "shell-shocked" by Charles going down as from that point on, they were outscored 15-0.  Predictably, the public is all over the Vikings in this one, but curiously the line has pretty much stayed the same, and actually gone down at some shops. Remember that KC has played a pretty tough schedule to this point as well.

It's not as if the Chiefs don't have options to make up for Charles' lost production. No one player will be able to fill the void, but between Knile Davis, Charcandrick West and De'Anthony Thomas, the offense still should be able to move the ball on the ground. Granted, I am worried about QB Alex Smith and the passing game, particularly a lack of pass protection coupled w/ Smith's inability to get the ball downfield. You'll note that Minnesota is allowing only 18.2 points per game this season. However, they have hardly faced any of the league's top offenses.  Remember that this is a team that scored only three points in an opening week loss at San Francisco.  With their backs seemingly against the wall, I'll call for a surprisingly efficient Chiefs performance on offense.

Defense has been the real disappointment for Kansas City, however.  You'll recall that when I made last week's big Under play on their game vs. the Bears, I noted that last season the Chiefs didn't allow 30 points in any game. This year, they've allowed 30+ three times, but two of those instances came against top-flight offenses (Green Bay and Cincinnati) and the Denver debacle speaks for itself.  Last week, saw them hold Chicago to just six points until the final two drives. Fortunately for this week, the opponent doesn't have a very dynamic scoring offense. The Vikings have yet to gain more than 350 total yds in any game this season and w/ a banged up receiving corps, Teddy Bridgewater could struggle here.  Pass protection has been an issue for both teams, but I believe KC to have the better pass rush.  Also, the Vikes are 0-2 SU/ATS the L2 years off a bye.  8* Kansas City

8* Under Broncos/Browns (1:00 ET):  Even with some key defensive personnel potentially out on both sides here, I think points will be at a premium.  In case you haven't been paying close attention, Denver's identity has completely flipped w/ the defense now doing the "heavy lifting" and Peyton Manning and the offense are simply "along for the ride."  I believe this Denver defense to be the best in the league right now and the stats bear that out as they are allowing the fewest yards per game (278.0) and have also forced a league-high 14 turnovers.  Most importantly, they come in allowing an average of just 15.8 points per game. A Cleveland team which is just one of two to start 5-0 Over is due for a low-scoring game. Take the Under.

Few saw Browns QB Josh McCown coming.  I know I didn't.  Last week, he threw for a franchise record 457 yards in an overtime win over the Ravens.  Needless to say, I am calling for a decrease in production, across the board, from Cleveland this week.  It should start early as the Broncos have yet to allow a single first quarter point this season.  While the potential absence of DeMarcus Ware looms large, take note that the Broncos league-leading 22 sacks have come from 11 different players. So I believe the will still be able to generate pressure on McCown and when they do, look for the Cleveland QB to struggle as opposing QB's have a 52.5 passer rating against the Broncos when they bring pressure, third lowest in the league. This Denver defense is also allowing just 3.46 yards per play on first down (tops in the league by 0.5 YPP!) and they are #1 on third down as well.

Meanwhile, Manning and the Broncos' offense continues to struggle mightily.  They didn't score a single touchdown last week (2nd time this year!) and were held under 300 total yards.  The good news is that Cleveland's secondary is banged up and down two key starters (Joe Haden, Tashaun Gibson). But is Manning even able to take advantage any longer?  What I anticipate is that Denver will try to get its run game going. The problem there is they are 30th in the league in yards per game (71.6) and this game is likely determined how they fare against the league's 31st ranked rush defense.  Don't discount that this is an early start time for Denver as well. 8* Under Broncos/Browns

10* Under Cardinals/Steelers (1:00 ET):  Arizona, along w/ Cleveland (surprise!), is one of two teams to open the season by going Over in each of its first five games.  They certainly have feasted on some cupcake opponents, though. Wins over New Orleans, Chicago, San Francisco and Detroit (collective 5-16 SU) have come by an average margin of 25.5 points per game w/ the team topping 40 points three times.  Week 6 brings a much tougher test in my opinion, in the form of Pittsburgh, who is 4-1 Under to this point. Since losing to New England in the season opener, the Steelers have held every opponent to 23 pts or less and remember the Cards were held to 22 in their lone loss (at home to St. Louis). Take the Under. 

Now, how the Steelers were able to pull off their win Monday night is a head-scratcher to me. Under the direction of Mike Vick, this offense has really struggled.  They've averaged just 162.3 passing yards per game with Vick and were downright anemic for 3.5 quarters last week vs. the Chargers.  Their 349 total yards are somewhat misleading when you consider that 152 of them came on the final two drives, 72 on one play, a long TD pass to Marcus Wheaton on a busted coverage. They had just three points at halftime and 10 after three quarters. The week previous, they gained just 253 total yards against a Baltimore defense that has been routinely torched this season and their lone second half score was basically set up by a turnover. Excluding a kneeldown, Pittsburgh's offense had seven drives of four plays or fewer. Five times they went three and out while gaining three yards or less! Vick finished the game w/ only 124 yards passing on a paltry 4.8 yards per attempt.  So, I don't think the Arizona defense will have a very "tough day at the office" here.

Though Arizona scored 42 points last week, they gained only 345 total yards and attempted just 18 passes! How does that happen, you ask? Well, how about SIX Lions' turnovers. The offense actually opened w/ a pair of three and outs last week. Remember that their previous 40+ point effort (against the 49ers) was also greatly aided by turnovers, namely two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns. This many non-offensive scores cannot be sustained.  I should also mention how the loss of C Pouncey for the Steelers is huge. 10* Under Cardinals/Steelers

10* San Jose State (10:30 ET):  As I envisioned, SJSU is finally coming around in their third year under HC Ron Caragher. This was a much better team last year than a 3-9 record showed as they were actually +82.8 yards per game in conference play, which trailed only Boise State (MWC Champ) and just barely San Diego State, who they play here. After opening 1-2 w/ losses at Air Force and Oregon State, the Spartans have won two of their last three, the only loss coming at Auburn. The key for this team has been taking care of business when favored.  Their track record of doing so actually extends back to last season when they were 3-1 SU/ATS as chalk. This year, they're 3-0 SU/ATS including my September Game of the Month against Fresno State.  It's a small number here and I say lay it!

Last week was a fairly impressive win by San Jose State as they traveled to Vegas to take on a UNLV team that was seemingly gaining momentum and dealt the Rebels a 33-27 overtime defeat.  They actually led 20-10 in the fourth quarter before letting UNLV back in the game. Truth be told, I have an outstanding wager on SJSU to finish Over 4 wins this season. A win here would obviously mean no worse than a push on that bet. Given their likelihood of improvement this season, I thought it was a ridiculously low number.  For the team, this game has added meaning as well as a win here would actually put them in first place of the West Division in the MWC!  This is also homecoming weekend on campus.  While the QB position has somewhat been in flux all year, I love what I've seen from RB Tyler Ervin, who has 874 yards rushing already and scored four TD's a week ago.

San Diego State is 2-0 in conference play and 3-3 overall, but in my opinion has been a big disappointment.  They did win on the road for the first time last week, 28-14 over Hawaii. But that's a pretty bad team they beat there as is Fresno State, who they beat the week prior by a score of 21-7.  This is a team that opened 0-4 ATS including a home loss to South Alabama. The defense has stepped up big time in the B2B wins, but here is facing an offense that has topped 40 points in both home games. The Aztecs also face the disadvantage of having played "on the island" last weekend. That can have a negative carryover effect and here it's made worse because of injuries sustained along the defensive line. 10* San Jose State

5* Chicago (8:35 ET):  Things are looking VERY ugly in Columbus right now as the Blue Jackets have opened 0-5 and allowed 4+ goals in every game.  They played last night, losing 6-3 to lowly Toronto at home.  This is not the time or place for them to get back on track as they visit what is sure to be an angry Blackhawks team that is off B2B road losses itself.  The Hawks are a team known for putting a LOT of shots on net here at the Madhouse on Madison and that's just bad news for a Jackets club that can't seem to keep the other side from scoring.  This matchup has all the makings of a blowout.

No team has allowed more goals this season than Columbus (26!). I'm not sure what has happened to Sergei Bobrovsky, but it's not good.  In the last two games, he has conceded 13 goals!  Most concerning for C-Bus is that the team was actually the ML favorite in four of the five games. Bobrovsky has a save percentage of .835, which is beyond woeful.  Those last two losses came at home!  They were outshot 33-25 last night by a terrible Maple Leafs team. 

Interestingly, Columbus swept the season series last year, so that only adds to the motivation for the Blackhawks, who were just outscored 7-1 in B2B road losses to the Flyers and Capitals.  But they have finished w/ an edge in shots on goal in four of five games this season and with the Blue Jackets' turnover woes, I expect them to have plenty of scoring opportunities here.  The power play needs to get going as so far the reigning Stanley Cup champs are just 2 for 17 w/ the man advantage. Their last home game saw them win 4-1 despite going just 1 for 7 on the PP.  Prior to last year, Chicago had beaten Columbus 13 straight times and I look for their offense to get back on track tonight.  5* Chicago

10* Ohio State (8:00 ET):  To this point, the top-ranked Buckeyes have massively underperformed the oddsmakers' expectations as they've covered just one of six games. But back under the primetime lights this week, I will call for their most complete effort since the season opener vs. Virginia Tech (also a night game). An offensive corner was turned last week vs. Maryland as HC Urban Meyer seems to have finally developed a suitable situation for his two "starting" quarterbacks, JT Barrett and Cardale Jones. Bringing both back (not to mention Braxton Miller as well!) was going to be a tricky situation for Meyer, but with the former now taking over in red zone opportunities, I expect the offense to take off.  Let us not forget that this is the first time OSU is NOT laying at least 30 points at home this season.

Penn State is 5-1, but all five wins came at home against inferior opposition.  It's now a "distant" memory, but they did lose the season opener at Temple fairly handily, gaining just 177 total yards of offense (allowed 10 sacks).  QB Christian Hackenberg simply has not been the same since Bill O'Brien bolted for the NFL.  The Nittany Lions' defensive numbers look pretty impressive, but again you have to take into consideration the level of competition.  This is a major step up in class from the likes of Buffalo, Rutgers, San Diego State, Indiana and Army and in the past such steps have proven problematic for this program.  Since 2010, they are just 3-12 SU vs. ranked opponents and the L3 seasons have seen them go 1-7 SU in "true" road games. Furthermore, they are just 2-17 SU/5-14 ATS when priced as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 pts, including 0-6 SU/1-5 ATS when on the road.

Much will be made of the fact that last year saw Penn State take Ohio State down to the wire, losing only 31-24 in double overtime after trailing by 17 at the half.  But that was in State College.  This being a primetime game should wake up the previously unmotivated Buckeyes, who for five weeks have known they need not be at their best to achieve victory.  This is a team that has won 26 consecutive conference games (in the regular season), a remarkable achievement.  Penn State is the one walking into the proverbial "Lion's Den" here.  10* Ohio State

8* Central Florida (7:30 ET):  OK, let me start out by saying this. UCF has not just fallen on "hard times," they have fallen to the point where they are under consideration for being the worst team in the entire country! How often though do we play the situation and not the team? That is the case here. Temple is unbeaten and at home, but this represents a classic look ahead for the Owls as they have a huge game at East Carolina on deck, next Thursday (will be televised on ESPN2), followed by a potentially even bigger game vs. Notre Dame (at home!) the following week!  To say that 0-6 UCF may not be first and foremost on the Owls' minds this week is putting it mildly.  Grab the generous number as UCF (also 0-6 ATS) is due to cover a spread.

Let's not sugarcoat how ugly things have gotten for HC George O'Leary.  He will be stepping down as athletic director at season's end and his team has already suffered a home loss to FCS Furman (by one point) earlier this year.  That's one of two 1-pt losses this year for the Knights, by the way and they actually checked in as the favorite three times thus far. Last week saw they play a "rivalry game" against a team they do not consider to be a "rival" (UConn) and lost 40-13 at home. "The Civil Conflict" (a rivalry that was essentially made up by UConn HC Bob Diaco) is simply put a game that UConn takes more seriously than UCF and it showed.  Also, UCF is -8 in the turnover battle the last two weeks. Let's not forget that, despite only nine returning starters, this team was projected to be a contender in the C-USA East Division. I just don't think they're as bad as their resume looks right now.

Temple might be undefeated, but it's not as if they've been dominant.  Most notably, they came back in semi-miraculous fashion to defeat UMass, by first returning a blocked PA attempt for two points and then kicking a field goal all in the final 80 seconds.  Being in this price range is still somewhat new to them even though the last two weeks have seen them favored by 20 and 14.  But w/ a game that could decide the division five days from now, then arguably the biggest game the campus will have seen in years, I look for a very lethargic effort from the Owls here. Plus, the backdoor should be open, if need be.  8* Central Florida

10* Dallas (7:05 ET):  Both of these teams have started a surprising 3-1. But Florida has hardly been taking on the elite teams, having played a home and home w/ Philadelphia, then Carolina and Buffalo.  Dallas, meanwhile, is coming off an impressive 5-3 win at Stanley Cup favorite Tampa Bay and also shut out Pittsburgh in their season opener. Mainly though, it's been the bevy of high-scoring games we've come to expect from the Stars, which means something will have to give as the Panthers have allowed just five goals total in four games. Who needs home ice advantage as road teams have dominated so far this NHL season, going 5-2 yday, bringing their YTD record to a very impressive 36-24 (+16.0 units). 

Dallas leads the league in goals per game (3.75) so far and has already had a game w/ 52 shots (vs. Edmonton)  The team imported multiple players in from the Blackhawks roster and it's worked.  Patrick Sharp has come in and give the other players "the rub" and early on this looks like one of the more improved teams in the league. Of course, scoring has never been a real concern for the Stars, it's been between the pipes where they've struggled.  But Kari Lehtonen made 30 saves in Thursday's win over the Lightning and has looked pretty good so far. 

Florida is not a team I'm putting much stock in right now, given the caliber of competition they've faced.  I also wonder how long their penalty killing unit can keep up the current pace, which is 15 for 17 through four games.  This is a franchise that has not started 4-1 since 1995-96, the season they made their lone Stanley Cup appearance.  Goaltender Roberto Luongo is highly unlikely to maintain his current pace, which has him at a .959 save percentage.   10* Dallas

8* Toronto (4:05 ET): Yesterday marked just the fifth time all season that the Blue Jays were shutout. It last happened September 13th, which was the ONLY time they got blanked since the All-Star Break.  So, I'm expecting a bounce back at the plate here, even against a Royals staff that has not permitted a run in the last 16 innings. Edinson Volquez, the Game 1 starter, really surprised me last night. But I don't think we'll be seeing a similar-type performance from Gm 2 starter Yordano Ventura, who has a 4.23 ERA and 1.315 WHIP in his 30 starts this season. Ventura made two starts in the LDS vs. Houston and lasted just seven innings total, giving up six runs.  The Blue Jays are 42-28 off a loss this season.

David Price gets the baseball this afternoon for Toronto. The use of him was quite questionable in the LDS as I still don't understand why manager John Gibbons inserted him into Game 4 (in a relief role) as the team was up six runs and had the game in hand. Price allowed three runs in 3 IP, which did nothing to quiet concerns over his postseason resume.  He is the only pitcher in history to lose each of his first six postseason starts and his ERA is 5.23.  But taking into account his full body of work, I'm not concerned.  He turned in a 2.65 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in 33 starts this season and his WHIP his L3 starts is 0.895.  His road starts have gone very well since coming over as he's 5-0 w/ a 1.91 ERA. He also is 6-0 this season in day games w/ a 2.04 ERA. As a team, the Blue Jays are 39-29 in day games.

As a road favorite in the -125 to -175 price range, Toronto is 17-7 this year. I understand that there are some legit concerns about their mighty offense, especially if DH Edwin Encarnacion can't play today.  But relief comes in the form of Ventura, who allowed five runs the lone time he faced the Jays in the regular season. He also lost opposite Price (when he was w/ Detroit) back in early May, allowing four runs there. Price pitched well in two starts this year vs. KC (2.93 ERA), both outings coming as a member of the Tigers. One was a complete game in this stadium.  I look for Price and the team to bounce back in Game 2.  8* Toronto

8* Michigan State (3:30 ET):  Talk about a change in public perception! Back in the preseason, oddsmakers had Michigan State as a 5.5-point favorite for this matchup. Last week, prior to the two teams playing, the number was reportedly set to be a Pick 'Em.  What we have now is Michigan favored by more than a touchdown!  That's pretty crazy, although not difficult to understand as the Wolverines have all the momentum after five straight wins where they've outscored the opposition 160-14 w/ three consecutive shutouts (first FBS team in 20 years to pull that off). Michigan State, meanwhile, is still unbeaten straight up but 0-6 against the spread. Sparty likely suffers its first loss of the season here, but I project the game to be "closer than the experts think" and thus taking the points is the way to go.

MSU head coach Mark Dantonio has to be respected in the underdog role. Over the last three seasons, his teams are 4-1-1 ATS in that role, taking four of the games outright!  The only non-cover came last year in Autzen Stadium against Oregon, who went on to play for the National Championship. Go back even further and we find the Spartans at 12-2 ATS the L14 times they've taken points w/ NINE outright upsets.  It's somewhat easy to see why they've struggled to cover spreads this season as they've taken on nothing but inferior competition and been asked to lay double digits five times.  The close call, at home, against Oregon is worrisome given how far the Ducks have fallen. But this is a team w/ three 13+ point victories and even though the L2 games (vs. Purdue and Rutgers) were closer than they should have been, MSU enjoyed comfortable edges in total yards both times.  I give them a big edge at quarterback w/ Connor Cook, who quietly has registered a career-high in completion percentage (59.9) and, oh by the way, is 29-3 SU all-time as a starter.

Also pertinent is that Michigan is just 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS the past seven years in this rivalry.  Their last six coaches have all lost the first time going against Michigan State. Jim Harbaugh is clearly a "different breed" but let's take a moment to look at just whom the Wolverines have beaten during this streak. Three of the teams (Oregon State, UNLV and Maryland) are all pretty bad while both BYU and Northwestern may very well be overrated. Also don't discount the impact of Spartans' LT Jack Conklin returning for this game (missed the last two). Further driving home the point of line value is the fact that Sparty's last six losses to Michigan have all been one-possession games. 8* Michigan State

8* Texas A&M (3:30 ET):  Given the way things went the last time Alabama was a dog (two weeks ago at Georgia), I figured that the linesmakers wouldn't dare give Nick Saban points again, but this is a better and more rested opponent that the Tide is taking on here. The "Bama is back" narrative seemed to ring far and loud following that 38-10 stomping of Georgia, but what about last week's lethargic effort against Arkansas where they prevailed "only" 27-14 despite it being a seemingly good matchup on paper? A&M is exactly the kind of team that tends to give Saban's defenses fits as we all remember the two games w/ Johnny Manziel at quarterback. This is not even close to the same Aggies team that lost 59-0 in Tuscaloosa last season.  Take the points.

Right now, there is no clear front runner in the SEC. There are a good number of teams in the top tier, both of these two among them. But that makes a home team, off a bye, taking points look awfully attractive, no?  A&M has won four of the last five times it has played w/ an extra week of rest.  Last we saw them, they took out Mississippi State 30-17 here in College Station, as a four-point favorite (led 27-10 going into 4Q).  Much has been written this week about the number of times Alabama has had to face a rested opponent under Saban and sure enough nine of his 14 regular season losses as the head coach here have come when the other side is coming off a bye!  Additionally, the Crimson Tide are just 2-6 ATS their last eight times being a road favorite.  We all know about the A&M offense which ranks 20th in FBS w/ 480.4 yards per game, but the big difference from last year is on the defensive side of the ball w/ John Chavis as the new coordinator. 

Chavis' unit, anchored by the outstanding Myles Garrett, has done a great job this year, particularly in the one game I took them, a 38-17 win over Arizona State in the season opener. There, on a neutral field, the Aggies held a very potent Sun Devils' offense under 300 total yards.  Chavis' defenses at LSU had a lot of success facing Alabama, including last year when the Tigers allowed just 4.2 yards per play and half those plays went for zero or negative yardage!  Alabama's offense did not impress me very much last week and don't forget they trailed at halftime, at home. I'm still not sold on QB Jake Coker.  Again, this looks like a pretty even matchup on paper, so a rested home dog looks like a great value to me. 8* Texas A&M

8* Buffalo (1:00 ET):  Central Michigan has the distinction of being the ONLY 6-0 team in the country, against the spread.  Preseason expectations have played a major role in that record. This was a team that did not even have a head coach on signing day (Dan Enos bolted to become the offensive coordinator for Arkansas) and as a result, expectations were VERY low in Mt. Pleasant at the start of the year. But hats off to the job 1st year HC John Bonamego (no previous head coaching experience) is doing here as his Chippewas are definitely competing. However, it should be pointed out that their SU record is only 2-4 and they've been an underdog in every game vs. a FBS opponent. Twice they've lost by double-digits, albeit to Oklahoma State and Michigan State, who are a combined 12-0 SU. Here is where the linesmakers catch up w/ CMU, however, as a rested Buffalo team comes calling. Take the points.

Last week represented somewhat of a misleading final as Central Michigan lost only 41-39 to Western Michigan despite trailing the entire game and by as many as 18 points midway through the third quarter (CMU scored THREE fourth quarter TD's). WMU actually still had a chance to hand the Chips their first ATS loss of the season, but elected to kneel on 1st and goal at the one-yard line, thus running the clock out!  That was not CMU's first close call at the betting window by any means as they covered by just a half point the one time they were favored (against FCS Monmouth) this year.  This spot seems like a receipt considering they've been outscored this season.

As stated earlier, Buffalo is rested. They are also likely to be in a foul mood considering B2B losses at home, both by six points or less, where the turnover differential was a combined -4.  Also, last year saw them lose by six at home to Central Michigan, with the Chippewas going 98 yards in 16 plays for the game-winning TD, so this is a big revenge spot to boot.  Note that on its two final drives LY, the Bulls were stopped on downs. Looking back at their last two games, they had no problems moving the ball against either Nevada or Bowling Green (493.5 YPG!) and has massive edges in first downs (57 to 40). They should have no problems here either, considering CMU's leaky run defense (110th in FBS!) that has allowed 200+ yards in B2B games. Buffalo's lone loss by more than one score this year came against Penn State, in Happy Valley, and even that was a six-point game heading into the fourth quarter. I expect this one to be close throughout.  8* Buffalo

10* Georgia Tech (12:30 ET):  Things have gone well beyond "simple regression" for Paul Johnson in Atlanta as his Yellow Jackets (preseason favorites to win the ACC Coastal) have now lost four in a row. That's more losses than they had all of last season, mind you. Now, I was not on board the "Ramblin Wreck" bandwagon at the start of the season. You may recall that I went AGAINST them when they visited Notre Dame and subsequently lost 30-22 (game wasn't even really that close). The wheels have since fallen off w/ losses in two revenge spots (Duke and UNC) where they actually held an edge in total yards, then last week they ran into #5 Clemson. But still being favored here against a team w/ a 4-1 record is telling & I'll gladly lay the small number.

In the interest of full disclosure, the Yellow Jackets have been unkind to me each of the last 2 weeks.  But, I say "the third time is the charm."  Against Duke (a game I did NOT play), they allowed just 289 total yards and forced three turnovers, but still lost by two touchdowns.  The following week, hosting UNC (where I was on GT), they shockingly blew a 21-0 lead.  Last week, they ran into a buzzsaw (Clemson), but note that was a second loss to a Top 15 opponent.  Though the preseason expectations were clearly too lofty, I still believe this can be a good team and this Saturday represents a real "buy low" opportunity.  The triple-option has not been up to par the last month, but still, Georgia Tech brings the best offense that Pitt will have seen all year (did score 134 pts first two games!). Last week marked an all-time low in rushing yardage for Johnson in his coaching career. It's reasonable to expect a big bounce back game here.

Georgia Tech hasn't exactly been good on defense either, but thankfully the offense they face here isn't going to scare anybody.  Last week's 26-19 home victory over Virginia marked the first time all season that Pitt gained more than 310 total yards against a FBS opponent.  Remember that they are w/o star running back James Conner, who coming into the season was thought to be their most irreplaceable player.  Also remember that three of Georgia Tech's four losses have come on the road, including both games vs. Top 15 teams. A third thing to remember is that last year, the Yellow Jackets went on the road and destroyed Pitt 56-28 coming off B2B losses to Duke and North Carolina. 10* Georgia Tech

10* Fresno State (10:30 ET):  Perhaps it's the news that UNLV starting QB Blake Decker will be available for this Friday night matchup (won't start though), but the Rebels sure seem to be getting a lot of love here, at least based on line movement. That flies in the face of history as this is a program which is a horrendous 7-66 on the road the last 11 seasons, including 6-39 SU in Mountain West play. Under 1st year HC Tony Sanchez, a local favorite from the high school level, UNLV has made strides. Most notably, there was a 23-17 win over in-state rival Nevada and an 80-8 victory (over FCS Idaho State). But other than those, there have been no victories and I disagree w/ the Rebels being a road favorite of this size.  Take the points.

Fresno State, historically, has been a strong home team. They were destroyed here last week, 56-14 as 12.5-point dogs, by Utah State. But that was just the fourth home loss EVER in four years under HC Tim DeRuyter. Another, earlier this year, was to Utah and that's certainly excusable given where the Utes currently stand in the polls.  UNLV is not at the same level of either of those foes.  FSU is 0-5-1 ATS so far, only pushing against FCS Abilene Christian.  But they've taken on a fairly challenging schedule, including a road game at Ole Miss.  You'll recall that I went AGAINST them w/ my September Game of the Month (at San Jose State) and since then, things have gotten downright ugly. But this shapes up as a "circle the wagons" type situation. It's also a revenge spot as last year saw them lose in Vegas, outright as nine-point favorites, 30-27 in overtime. That snapped a 10-game series win streak that dated all the way back to 1984.

UNLV has been a dog in five of its six games so far, making this an unfamiliar price range. The only game in which they were favored was against the FCS foe, Idaho State, and even that was only an 11-point spread at home. Fresno State has fallen, but not this much. Also, UNLV is in a tough spot, off a loss to San Jose State themselves, in overtime no less. They blew an early 10-0 lead.  While 11-4 ATS their L15 road games, UNLV is just 4-11 SU, illustrating that they're almost always the dog. In fact, they are 1-4 ATS in the road favorite role dating back to 2010.  This time, it is the Bulldogs that are a live dog. Going back to the respective QB situations, I would expect better play from FSU's Kilton Anderson in his second career start, but for UNLV Kurt Palandech is certainly a downgrade from Decker.   10* Fresno State

10* Under Avalanche/Ducks (10:05 ET):  I'm 2 for 2 w/ hockey totals thus far and both of these teams have played a role. My lone Over play of the season was on Colorado's season opener, a game where they blew a 4-1 lead entering the third period and lost 5-4 to the Wild. Meanwhile, I had Under in Anaheim's game earlier this week, at home vs. Vancouver, which went to a shootout but was only 2-1 when the final whistle was blown. Both results have been "par for the course" for both sides thus far as all three Avalanche games have gone Over and all three Ducks games have stayed Under. So something's "got to give" here and considering the Ducks have scored all of one goal in three games, I'm on the Under in this one.

All of the Avs' games have seen at least eight total goals scored, which quite frankly is a lot. They've scored 12 goals themselves, which is impressive, but odd considering they're averaging only 24.3 shots per game! That dynamic seems rather unsustainable.  That goals per game average is tops in the league as is their 50% power play percentage (completely unsustainable!).  They opened the year 4 for 6 w/ the man advantage, but were just 1 for 4 in Wednesday's 6-2 loss to Boston. That game also saw them finish w/ only 22 shots.  This is also the club's first road game of the season. Last year, these teams played three times. The first two games both saw five total goals scored. The final one, a 4-2 Colorado win, was the lone matchup to go Over, but note there was an empty net goal near the end of regulation there.  The Avs did not have more than 24 shots in any of the three meetings w/ Calgary last year.

The Under is 41-28 in Ducks' home games the L2 seasons when the O/U line is set at 5.5 goals. As mentioned earlier, the Under is 3-0 thus far for them w/ them scoring just one goal.  Their second shutout loss of the season came Wednesday, at home against lowly Arizona.  The one positive is that prior to that they had allowed only three regulation goals.  With Colorado struggling to put the puck on net, that trend should continue.  Goaltender Frederik Andersen has an incredible .954 save percentage to this point.  The Avs likely turn to Reto Berra between the pipes here. 10* Under Avalanche/Ducks

8* Winnipeg (8:05 ET):  Kudos to the Jets so far for opening 3-1 w/ all four games played coming on the road. Tonight marks their home opener as they welcome in a Calgary club that's 1-2 and off a home loss to St. Louis.  In their lone visit to Manitoba last season, the Flames were extinguished, losing 5-1 despite only 22 Jets' shots on goal. Typically though, it's Calgary that struggles to put the puck on net. They were third from the bottom in shots on goal last season and outside of a 38-shot effort vs. Vancouver last Saturday, they've generated just 48 shots total in the other two games. Winnipeg comes in as one of the league's highest scoring teams (15 goals) and is 4 for 12 on the power play. I expect them to come up big in their home opener.

In addition to all the scoring, goaltending has been another story for the Jets this year. Their current save percentage of .942 is nothing short of phenomenal, if not unsustainable. But whatever regression we're likely to see between the pipes from them will be mitigated by Calgary's inability to consistently put the puck on net. Ondrej Pavalec likely gets the starting nod tonight & he made 40 saves the last time we saw him. As far as the home ice edge goes, Winnipeg closed last year's regular season on a 14-4-2 run here at the MTS Centre.

  Both of these teams are giving up a lot of shots in the early going.  Thus, the Winnipeg offense should continue to roll, especially going against Flames' goaltender Kari Ramo, who allowed five goals on 44 shots in his lone appearance this year.  Calgary is just 35-51 when taking on teams w/ a winning record and it should be pointed out that by most metrics this club was one of the league's biggest overachievers in 2014-15.  Don't discount the fact that the Flames also have to play tomorrow night, at home against rival Edmonton.  This situation clearly favors the Jets. 8* Winnipeg

10* Toronto (8:05 ET): The Blue Jays enter the respective LCS's as the betting favorite to win the World Series and I have to agree. I've sung this club's praises for much of the campaign, noting their incredible run differential (+224 during regular season) due to a record-setting offense. But ironically, it's not necessarily the offense I'm leaning on here in Game 1 vs. the Royals. Rather, it's their newfound starting pitching depth. With both David Price (relief role) and Marcus Stroman (started Gm 5 vs. Texas) having been used in recent days, manager John Gibbons can still turn to Marco Estrada here. Estrada, quietly, has the best WHIP (9th in MLB!) in the rotation and opponents are batting just .203 against him this year, the fourth lowest average in the majors! Look for Estrada to get the requisite amount of run support & lead his team to victory.

Who are the three pitchers to have lower opponents' batting averages than Estrada? How about Jake Arrieta, Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw aka the three NL Cy Young contenders? Remember that all three of those guys benefit from facing opposing pitchers! Estrada comes into Game 1 w/ a phenomenal 0.639 WHIP his L3 starts and started in the team's Gm 3 win in the LDS against Texas.  There, he allowed just one run and five hits over 6 1/3 IP, a fifth consecutive quality outing. No doubt that he's looking forward to facing Kansas City here as in two regular season starts against them, he allowed just only four total runs in 12 1/3 innings. By the way, this Toronto team is 17-6 this year when taking the field w/a day off.

The Royals turn to Edinson Volquez, who did not win his lone LDS start and in fact has a 1-4 TSR his L5 starts overall.  His career postseason ERA is 8.76, the second highest ever for a Game 1 starter in a playoff series. Toronto won the season series, 4-3, with the Royals and that included splitting the four games here in Kauffman Stadium. Having just won three straight elimination games, the Jays do have some momentum (for whatever that's worth) and I have them rated as the significantly better team here. Kansas City does not have a Gallardo or Hamels to stymie the Toronto lineup, so I expect a big Game 1 victory for the home team. 10* Toronto

10* New Orleans (8:25 ET):   Atlanta might be 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS), but four times they've had to come from behind in the fourth quarter, including last week's 25-19 OT win over Washington. I was on the Redskins there and they covered for me, wire to wire.  Still having six unbeaten teams at this point in the year is definitely a surprise (no team started even 4-0 SU last year) and a big theme entering Week 6. I think a clear case can be made that the Falcons are one of the weaker unbeatens as they've been outgained in two of their victories. Throw in the questionable status of star WR Julio Jones (hamstring) and I think you have a live dog here as despite not being what they once were, the Saints are still a dangerous team at home. Take the points.

I've had a good read on New Orleans their last two games. In another primetime affair, I took them (as a favorite) in a 26-20 overtime win over Dallas.  I was a big seller on their chances last week in Philadelphia however, and was rewarded w/ an easy 39-17 win by the Eagles. There was a time when the Saints as home dogs would have been somewhat unfathomable, but as previously discussed they actually entered the Dallas game on a six-game home losing streak! Still though, this is a really solid value against an opponent they are all too familiar with. It's a double revenge spot as well as the Falcons swept LY's season series. Atlanta has not won B2B years in the Superdome since 2001-02 and is just 3-9 SU its L12 visits here. Four turnovers killed New Orleans last week and turned what was a close game (10-10 halfway through 3rd quarter) into a blowout. They have now lost all three games where they've lost the turnover battle, but note the two prior losses were much closer.

The Falcons have been favored in New Orleans only three times since 1999.  All three times they failed to cover and the last two, they've lost the game outright. It's hard to imagine all these teams staying unbeaten and you just know that you're going to get the Saints' best shot here.  That "best shot" may not be what it once was, but it will be good enough to at least cover the spread.  Atlanta is just 5-12 SU/7-10 ATS its last 17 road games.  10* New Orleans

8* LA Dodgers (8:05 ET):  The price here is way too low NOT to take Zack Greinke, given the homefield advantage.  This is a pitcher who is 20-3 this season (24-9 TSR) w/ a ridiculously low 1.72 ERA and 0.845 WHIP. Here at Dodgers Stadium, his numbers get even slightly better. In Game 2 of this series, he went seven strong innings, allowing just two runs (both on solo home runs) and five hits as the team prevailed 5-2.  I was on Greinke there (closed as -170 ML favorite).  There have now been two starts all year where he allowed more than 3 ER.  Those came against last place teams, ironically enough, Philadelphia and Colorado and both were on the road.  The last time he allowed more than 2 ER in a home start was April!  That's while never lasting fewer than six innings in any start all year!  Let's stick w/ him.

Now, going for the Mets will be Jacob deGrom, who had a phenomenal Game 1 outing. His numbers are just as good as Greinke's, both recently and for the year.  But I wonder how much support deGrom will be receiving here.  The likely answer is "not much" as I go back to my Game 4 analysis (was on the Dodgers) when I noted just how weak this New York offense has generally been of late. They are batting a collective .170 the last 7 games and were held to just three hits in Tuesday's 3-1 setback.  Aside for the Game 3 outburst (when I was on them), the Mets have five hits or less in six of the last seven games. Remember that this was a middling lineup much of the year that finished 28th in team batting average (.244). 

I also keep coming back to the homefield edge.  The Mets would have had homefield for this game had they not faltered down the stretch. As a result, we play at Dodgers Stadium where the home team is 56-27 this season including 16-6 in the -150 to -175 range.  Only one time has Greinke been available at a cheaper price here at home all season and that was against Madison Bumgarner and the Giants back on September 1st. He responded by going 7 1/3 innings and allowing just one run off five hits in a 2-1 win.  The Mets are only 4-12 as a road underdog in the +125 to +150 range. I look for Greinke to out-duel deGrom here.  8* LA Dodgers

8* North Texas (7:30 ET):  By many metrics and in many power ranking systems, North Texas is the worst team in the country. Now this is not an ideal way to start a rationale for a play.  Nor is the fact that I must sadly report the firing of HC Dan McCarney, who just two years ago led this team to a bowl victory. But last week's 66-7 home loss to FCS Portland State (who also beat Washington State) was completely unacceptable. In steps Mike Canales on an interim basis and believe it or not, he has previous experience in this capacity, having led the team for a five-game stretch back at the end of 2010. The Mean Green went 2-3 SU, but 4-1 ATS for him and pulled two outright upsets! An outright upset here is certainly not in the realm of possibility, but the points are plentiful thanks to a huge line move.  Take the points.

Last week, we saw Baylor come in as a 45-point road favorite over Kansas, likely the most points any visitor has ever laid in modern conference play. This one isn't quite in that same range, but it's a fairly comparable situation. Now Baylor did cover last week despite calling the dogs off in the second half.  But Western Kentucky is not Baylor.  The Hilltoppers have thrown for 400+ yards in five consecutive games, four of them wins, and the last three have all been by 30+ points. But that's where the comparisons w/ Baylor end. Don't forget WKU is w/o last year's leading rusher Leon Allen (1500+ yards!).  Two of their three road games to this point have been decided by a field goal or less, the exception being a 49-10 win over Rice where they were +5 in turnovers. They have benefited from 11 TO's overall the L3 games.  For the likely C-USA winners, this is also a potential lookahead to a big non-conf road game next week at LSU.

It is seemingly all against North Texas here. Fortunately, this is an extraordinary price range that they find themselves in. It is extremely difficult for a favorite to cover a spread this large as they mindset going in is "easy win" (just ask Ohio State). Not only has UNT not won a game this year, they have not covered a single spread. After a coaching change, taking this many points, isn't this as good a time as any? This is a program that had gone 16-7 straight up at home in McCarney's first four years. Thanks to the pubic perception that the team is "dead and buried, " we can take advantage of a more than generous number. 8* North Texas

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET):  The Penguins are a surprising 0-3. Desperate, they draw Ottawa in a good spot as the Senators played last night and won 7-3 in in Columbus. That was the Sens' third road win of the season already (ironically they lost their only home game), but the back to back scenario does them no favors here, considering an 11-18 record in that role going back two full seasons. The one loss this year did come when they took the ice w/ no rest, 3-1 to Montreal. The Pens are also off a home loss to Montreal, on Tuesday. But they have not opened a season w/ four consecutive regulation losses in over a decade and this looks like a "get well" spot to me.

In the past, Pittsburgh has really owned Ottawa.  They are 10-2-2 their L14 games against them and that includes an excellent 6-0-1 record here at home. Goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury has been the one between the pipes for the five of those home victories and has produced a 1.79 goals against average.  Meanwhile, with this being the second of back to backs, Andrew Hammond aka "The Hamburgler" likely gets his first starting nod of the season for the Senators. An obvious candidate for regression this season, Hammond allowed three goals in 15 minutes in his only appearance vs. Pittsburgh last season.

Most surprising about the Pens' start has been the lack of offense as they've tallied just three goals. But they are averaging 32.7 shots per game, so the goals should (theoretically) start coming. Sidney Crosby has been the biggest culprit w/ no points at all in the three games, something we've never seen from him in his career. I expect that to change shortly. Ottawa, despite the 3-1 record, is actually being outshot by an average of 35.7 to 25.7 per game.  Prior to last night, their other two wins came against Buffalo and Toronto, who are quite possibly the two worst teams in the Eastern Conference.  8* Pittsburgh

10* Auburn (7:00 ET): It has been nothing short of a disastrous start for Gus Mahlzan and Auburn, who have gone from #4 in the polls to unranked thanks to a pair of SEC losses and an uninspiring 0-5 ATS record. However, coming off the bye, I think they're a very solid value here against perennial SEC also-ran Kentucky. The Tigers have won straight up all three games that they have been favored.  They are also 6-2 SU/ATS their last eight chances as a road favorite of three points or less. UK, meanwhile, is just 4-8 SU/ATS its L12 times taking three points or less here in Lexington. That includes a loss to Florida earlier this year.  I wasn't nearly as high on Auburn as others were coming into the year, but there's been an overadjustment by the linesmakers. The Tigers have not lost in Lexington since 1966, winning eight in a row.

I'm not sold on any kind of massive resurgence going on in Lexington currently. Sure, the Wildcats are 4-1 SU, but every win was a one-score game (as was the loss to Florida) & their two SEC wins came against South Carolina and Missouri, two squads that have disappointed more than even Auburn. In their last game, as a 27.5-pt favorite, they managed to beat in-state foe Eastern Kentucky (FCS team) only 34-27 (needed overtime!) as the offense could only muster a paltry 1.53 yards per rush attempt.  At home, they actually trailed the underdog Colonels by two touchdowns in the second half. In fact, it was 27-13 in favor of EKU w/ just five minutes remaining in regulation. Mark Stoops' team has been quite fortunate in that they are the ONLY team in the country to have multiple come from behind victories when down 14+ pts in the 4Q this season (also beat SC). 

Auburn has played a more challenging schedule to this point, most notably having to go to LSU.  Other than that blowout loss, things haven't necessarily been THAT bad.  They outgained Mississippi State 389-326 in a tough 17-9 loss. They were lucky to get by a tough San Jose State squad two weeks ago (outgained 406-342) thanks to a +4 turnover differential, but won by two touchdowns.  While Mahlzan has yet to name a starting QB here, that somewhat works in his favor as Kentucky must prepare for both Jeremy Johnson and Sean White. This is a good "buy low" opportunity on a preseason top five team. 10* Auburn

8* Colorado (10:05 ET): One could make the case that the Avalanche "should" be 2-0. They blew a 4-1 lead entering the third period, here at home, in the opener vs. Minnesota. (I had the Over in that game!).  They followed that, however, with a commanding 6-3 victory over Dallas.  Ten goals in two games is certainly "nothing to sneeze at" and w/ a matchup here against the struggling Bruins (0-3), I'd say the Avs could be in store for another big offensive night. In three games, Boston has allowed 16 goals and all of those losses came at home!  Not good. That puts them in dead last in goals per game allowed this season. This is not the team that it once was and I see them taking another loss tonight in Denver.

Keep in mind that Zdeno Chara returned to the ice for the B's on Monday and their struggling defense still gave up six goals in an ugly loss to the Lightning. That was a game they initially led 2-0, but the defense has been so poor to this point that it couldn't hold up. Leaning on Chara is risky because he's a 38-year old player. HC Claude Julien is already on the "hot seat" and could be the first coach canned this season. 

What's interesting is that the Avs are averaging 5.0 goals per game despite an average of just 25.5 shots while Boston has allowed an average of 5.3 despite allowing "just" 31 shots per game.  With a lack of blue line talent, Bruins' netminder Tuukka Rask has regressed w/ a 4.72 goals against average.  Colorado won both matchups this year & is a surprisingly effective 48-24 in games against teams w/ losing records the past two seasons.  8* Colorado

10* Kansas City (8:05 ET): Watching the Astros meltdown in Game 4, I couldn't help but hearken back to one of the most infamous games in baseball history, that being the "Steve Bartman game" at Wrigley Field, Game 6 of the 2003 NLCS.  Houston, like the Cubs over a decade ago, fell apart in the eighth inning, just six outs away from advancing.  After blowing a seemingly insurmountable 6-2 lead, it will be very difficult for the young Astros to "get off the mat" here, especially in Kansas City. For me, this was the hardest series call of the entire LDS. I had Under in Game 1 and Houston in Game 3 (only two plays!). But now the situation dictates a big play on the Royals, whose experience from last year's postseason should serve them well Wednesday night.

Johnny Cueto has not been what the Royals would have hoped for when they traded for him at the deadline.  They won his Game 2 start, but that was fortunate as Cueto put them into an early hole, the first of two big comeback efforts in the series and the one that will likely be overlooked after how Game 4 played out. Still though, I think its important to take Cueto's full body of work into account. This is a pitcher w/ a 1.147 WHIP for the season.  He opposes Colin McHugh, certainly the most inconspicuous 20-game winner in all of MLB, who was also the Game 1 starter.  The Astros now have a .667 win percentage in McHugh starts (22-11 TSR), including four straight wins, but this is certainly a trying spot for a pitcher w/ little in the way of big game experience.

Let's not discount that this game is taking place at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals owned the second strongest homefield advantage in the American League during the regular season, going 51-30, trailing only Toronto and ironically enough, Houston.  I gravely overestimated the power of home field in the Wild Card Game, taking the Yankees to beat the Astros, but Houston also happened to have Dallas Keuchel on the mound in that winner take all matchup.  Despite actually outscoring opponents away from home this year, Houston's 35-49 road record cannot be discounted. Nor can the fact they blew their chance at clinching the series at home Monday.  10* Kansas City

8* Chicago (8:05 ET): This is a huge, early-season mismatch.  Later in the year, we certainly would not be able to get this kind of value on the money line w/ the Stanley Cup Champs going against an also-ran such as the Flyers. This is a top-five vs. bottom-five team in the league. The Blackhawks did lose their season opener, 3-2 to the Rangers, but have since responded w/ a home and home sweep of a very good Islanders team.  Meanwhile, things have not gone too rosy for Philadelphia as the dreaded "players-only" meeting was called after B2B ugly losses to open the year, one of them 7-1 to Florida. After the meeting, they responded by beating the Panthers, 1-0, but wins will be few and far between for this club in 2015-16. I look for the 'Hawks to pick up a relatively easy two points here.

Chicago is well-rested here, having not taken the ice in three days. They have gone 14-9 SU with that amount of time off, the last two seasons. Saturday, at home vs. the Isles, they allowed only a short-handed goal in a relatively easy 4-1 victory. Offensively, there are no issues here as the team is averaging 34.3 shots per game.  Patrick Kane, amidst all the distraction, has three goals and three assists as he's playing on a new line. Corey Crawford, who we last saw stopping 34 of 36 shots in Brooklyn (against the Isles), should be back between the pipes tonight.

The 'Hawks have actually lost four straight times here in Philly and 13 of the last 15 times they have visited.  But this will be a much weaker Flyers club they're facing here, compared to past editions.  I'm still not sure what to make of new goaltender Michal Neuvirth (filling in for Steve Mason) as he allowed three goals in a relief effort against Florida on Saturday, but then shut them out Monday. Keep in mind that was just the seventh shutout victory for the franchise the past three seasons!  Again, I have this as a great value as later on in the season the ML would be a lot closer to -200.  8* Chicago

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET):  After backing the Fever for (basically) the entirety of the series (took them in Games 1, 3 and 4. Also, had Over in Gm 2), I'm "switching sides" here to the favored Lynx. Yes, I've continually harped on the point that I had Indiana rated as the better team coming into the Finals. But, there's really no denying this has been a fairly even series and the home court edge is too difficult to ignore here. All four games have been decided by six points or less (three by exactly six) and curiously the opening number here has dipped below that benchmark. Maybe it's a trap, but there is the fact Minnesota is an outstanding 17-5 SU at home this year, holding foes to an average of just 69.1 points per game. They are even tougher to beat here in a playoff environment.  Lay the points.

Foul trouble was the story in both Game 2 and Game 4 results. Each team has been on the wrong end one time  Game 2, it was Indiana star Tamika Catchings that had to head to the bench early and that coincided w/ a big Lynx rally, resulting in a 77-71 victory for them. After taking Game 3 at the buzzer (on a Maya Moore three-pointer), Minnesota found itself in major foul trouble in Game 4 as center Sylvia Fowles' time was limited to the point she only attempted two field goals the entire game. Overall, free throw attempts were 29-9 in favor of the Fever and that was a big reason they were able to pull away late. After outscoring the Lynx 22-14 in the third quarter, the Fever made just one field goal attempt in the fourth, but were bailed out by going 15 of 18 from the FT line.  

Indiana is now 5-0 SU in elimination games this postseason and I've taken them in the majority of those situations. Why abandon ship, then? Well, as already discussed, there is the homecourt advantage. I've adjusted my own power ratings slightly throughout this series and do think that the Lynx, who have yet to play their best basketball, are probably the better team.  This is the Fever's third elimination game on the road of the postseason and that takes its toll on a team. That free throw discrepancy from Game 4 certainly won't be present here, and if there is any kind of discrepancy, it will likely go the way of the home team.  10* Minnesota

6* Toronto (4:05 ET): John Gibbons & the Blue Jays' fate is now tied to the manager's decision to use staff ace David Price in a relief role Monday as the team stayed alive w/ an 8-4 Game 4 win in Texas. Some will call the decision "curious," given that Price is now no longer available to start this winner take all, elimination game. But seeing as Price wasn't exactly superb in his Game 1 start (allowed 5 ER in 7 IP) nor his Game 4 relief appearance (3 ER in 3 IP), maybe Gibbons is on to something.  That "something" would be Marcus Stroman, now Toronto's Game 5 starter, who has a 2.12 ERA and 0.971 WHIP in five starts this year. I thought he pitched better in Game 2 than Price did in Game 1 and the numbers bear that out as well. Look for Stroman to lead the Jays to the ALCS.

The home team has yet to win a game in this series. Texas finished w/ the best road record in the American League, but asking for a third win at Rogers Centre is probably asking too much. Let us not forget Toronto's regular season accolades. This is a ballclub that finished w/ - by far - MLB's best run differential at +221. Here at home, they went 53-28, outscoring opponents by a full two runs per game! Visiting teams have batted just .227 here at Rogers Centre this year. Toronto's lineup is at .277.  The Jays' offense finally got rolling in the two games at Arlington and has (not surprisingly) outhit the Rangers in three of the four games (extra inning game the exception). In addition to having MLB's best offense, they have Stroman, who has not allowed more than six hits in any start this season. Toronto also got another break w/ this being yet another day game; they're 38-29 in such games this year. They are also 9-1 as a home favorite in the -175 to -200 range.

The Rangers have won the last 11 starts made by midseason acquisition Cole Hamels, but it was hardly because of the former Phillie that they won Game 2. Hamels allowed four runs (same as Stroman) and one homer. While his WHIP (L3 starts) is identical to that of Stroman, Hamels' ERA is two full points higher. I'll stand behind Gibbons decision here while acknowledging that the Blue Jays are simply the better team. Having fought to get back to a Game 5 here at home, I cannot see them "blowing" the opportunity.  6* Toronto

8* Dallas (8:35 ET):  The early returns on Connor McDavid and Edmonton have been anemic at best as the #1 overall draft choice has been held w/o a point through two games & the team is w/o a win.  The Oilers have scored just one goal so far and this is their third straight road game to open up the season. That's a tough spot considering the franchise has dropped 51 of its last 67 games as the visitor, a stretch that dates all the way back to December of 2013. Aside from a 4-0 shutout near the end of last season, the Oilers have had very little success at all against Dallas, whether it be home or road, as they have lost 72 of the past 100 matchups (!) including 38 of 52 here in Big D. The Stars took their home opener in shutout fashion and I like them to get the two points here.

In recent years, Edmonton has gotten off to very poor starts. They are now just 21-61 in the first half of the season dating back to 2013-14. They must have made someone in the league office mad in the offseason because five of their first six games are on the road and the one home game is vs. St. Louis, who already beat them 3-1 in the opener. Saturday saw the Oilers get blanked in Nashville despite an edge in shots on goal.  The biggest criticism of McDavid thus far has been his inability to win faceoffs; so far he's just 5 for 24 in that department, which is quite poor. Cam Talbot represented an upgrade for the team between the pipes, but HC Todd McLellan may elect to go backup Anders Nilsson tonight. The Oilers power play has really struggled to this point, going 1 for 8, including 0 for 5 vs. the Preds.

Meanwhile, the Stars followed up an excellent performance in the season opener (beat Pittsburgh 3-0) w/ a bad showing Saturday in Colorado where they lost 6-3. After a 37-save shutout vs. the Pens, goaltender Antti Niemi was awful, allowing six goals on 28 shots vs. the Avs. However, either he or longtime Stars netminder Kari Lehtonen would suffice here against the Oilers considering their respective career numbers. Niemi is 11-1-2 against Edmonton all-time w/ a 2.45 goals against average while Lehtonen is 8-2-1 against them w/ a 2.16 GAA.  8* Dallas

8* LA Dodgers (8:05 ET): After going w/ the Matt Harvey & the Mets last night, I'm back on the Dodgers (had them in Gm 2) in a do or die Game 4 w/ Clayton Kershaw on the hill.  Kershaw's postseason misfortune continued in Gm 1 of this series as despite 6 2/3 relatively strong innings (11 K's!) it wasn't enough to combat Jacob deGrom. I do not think we will have the same issue here against Steven Matz, who while good, has only six regular season starts under his belt and didn't become a regular member of the rotation until September.  Kershaw, who has had somewhat of a cursed season (-7.3 units!), is absolutely due for a turnaround considering an excellent 0.620 WHIP his L3 starts. Look for the Dodgers to stave off elimination & force a Game 5 back in Chavez Ravine.

As I talked about in my Game 1 analysis, it is not as if Kershaw has pitched poorly this season. Many of his numbers, save for won-loss record, are on par w/ LY's Cy Young campaign. During the regular season, he struck out 301 batters (most in MLB) in 232 2/3 innings and opponents hit just .194 against him. He was top three in WHIP (0.88), trailing only Jake Arrieta and teammate Greinke.  He's been more "unlucky" than anything else (2-9 TSR in one-run games) and I'll call for strong showing tonight when it matters most.  Even w/ last night's offensive outburst, the Mets are still only averaging 2.9 runs per game their last seven contests w/ a team batting average of .182!  The 13 runs scored last night were more than their previous seven games - combined! 

Yes, Kershaw is going on three days' rest here and the Dodgers are far from a great road team (37-45).  But Kershaw has started twice previously on three days rest in the playoffs and his ERA is 2.25 w/ 15 K's in 12 IP.  In his last five postseason starts, shockingly none of them wins, he has averaged 12.27 strikeouts per nine innings. Simply put, a pitcher of his caliber is due to turn things around.  Here at Citi Field, he has gone 3-0 w/ 31 K's in 26 2/3 IP and that includes a three-hit shutout back in July.  Matz, a rookie, has not pitched since September 24th and is dealing w/ an injured back. His WHIP over his L3 starts is a troublesome 1.560. 8* LA Dodgers

8* Washington (7:00 ET):  The Sharks seemed to have regained "their bite" for 2015-16 as they have opened 2-0 w/ B2B impressive victories over division rivals Los Angeles and Anaheim. Given how none of the teams from the Pacific that made the playoffs last year were as good as their individual records, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a San Jose resurgence and them back on top of the division by season's end. However, for tonight, they're out East visiting a Caps team that has only had to play once thus far and also has high hopes for this season. Alex Ovechkin and company were last seen beating lowly New Jersey, 5-3, on Saturday. They've had a ton of problems in the past beating San Jose, but tonight will be their night.

Incredibly, the Sharks have won 22 of the past 27 meetings between these two clubs, including 11 of the 14 played here in D.C.  That seems awfully one-sided over a time frame where one side hasn't really been appreciably better than the other.  Remember that the Capitals were up 3-1 on the Rangers in the second round last year. Ovechkin himself tallied his most goals (53) in six seasons.  The Metropolitan is quite tough this season, but expect the Caps to be a contender as they have surrounded Ovechkin w/ more talent, including TJ Oshie, who last year w/ St. Louis averaged 2.25 points per 60 minutes of even strength time (2nd most on team). Goaltender Braden Holtby is more than just solid. Though he wasn't necessarily at his best vs. New Jersey, Holtby is coming off a career year where his GAA was 2.22 and his save percentage was .923.

So far, San Jose has gotten two stellar performances in net from Martin Jones, who has stopped all but one shot he's seen. The Sharks have enjoyed a drastic edge in terms of shots on goal through the first two games (38.0 per game vs. 23.5 allowed), but such a wide discrepancy cannot last. I'm not sure Jones can sustain that level of play either.  Both meetings vs. Washington last year were high scoring and the Caps did win on the road. They finished w/ an edge in shots both times as well.  Simply put, I feel the Caps are due to turn around their history of poor fortune vs. San Jose here. 8* Washington

10* Under Canucks/Ducks (10:05 ET): Vancouver opened its season w/ a home and home against Calgary, the team that eliminated them from last year's playoffs. The road team won both times and it was a high volume of shots for the Canucks (44) in a 5-1 win in Alberta to open the year. But they were then limited to just a pair of goals in a 3-2 loss at home on Saturday.  Now, it's on to face another Pacific Division rival, that being Anaheim, who was shut out in their season opener in San Jose, 2-0.  The last three meetings between these two have all stayed Under the total w/ four or less total goals scored every time. That's the way I see this one going as well.  Take the Under.

The Ducks were outshot by the Sharks, 44-27, Saturday night. The fact that they lost maybe should not come as a surprise as it was their eighth straight loss in San Jose. They were outshot 17-3 in the third period, but give credit to goaltender Frederik Andersen, who was very solid between the pipes and will be back there tonight. He has a 1.22 career GAA vs. the Canucks (eight starts). Offensively, I thought it was interesting that HC Bruce Boudreau split up Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry against San Jose. It clearly did not work. I will be interested to see if they are back on the same line tonight.

These teams played five times last season and in none of those games did Vancouver score more than three goals.  They scored a total of just eight times. All of those games were against Andersen. Ryan Miller will be in net for the road team here, trying to improve a 2.88 career GAA at the Pond in Anaheim.  It's still early in the season, so I see the goaltenders being ahead of the skaters. Goals will be hard to come by here. 10* Under Canucks/Ducks

6* NY Mets (8:35 ET):  Home teams continue to struggle this postseason, but this is the series where I thought homefield would matter most. The Mets have already "stolen" the homefield edge by taking Game 1 in LA, so a loss in Game 2 really didn't bother me. In fact, I was on the Dodgers Saturday night as they had Zack Greinke on the hill. Earning a split in LA while facing Greinke and Clayton Kershaw is basically the best the Mets could hope for and now they turn to their own star pitcher (Matt Harvey) at home where they're 49-32 for the year. This is a RARE, and I do mean rare, instance of the Dodgers coming in as the underdog on the money line. It's happened only 12 times all season and they are just 4-8 in those games.

Now that Kershaw and Greinke have taken their turns in the rotation, it will be Brett Anderson here for the Dodgers. While no other pitcher in all of MLB, not even Dallas Keuchel, was better at inducing ground balls, the Mets' lineup surprisingly has done a good job of making contact throughout the year. They are third in ground ball vs. fly ball ratio at 0.77 (lower the number, the better).  Anderson also did not end the regular season well w/ a 7.61 ERA and 1.591 WHIP his L3 starts. He has not faced the Mets this year. The Dodgers are the only National League playoff team to have a losing road record (37-44) and unlike Houston (whose road record is even worse), they have not outscored their opponents in such games. Anderson has a 7-8 TSR on the road & the Mets are 21-16 this year vs. lefties.

There was a lot of controversy surrounding Harvey at the end of the regular season as an innings limit issue arose that limited his usage.  We shall see how "long of a leash" he's given here, but by all accounts the player himself is willing to "play ball" with his team.  That's a big deal as Harvey had an outstanding year, including a 1.02 ERA and 0.849 WHIP his L3 starts. In almost half of his starts this year (14 of 29), he allowed 1 ER or less. That includes six of his last nine. This was a top eight pitcher in terms of both ERA and WHIP and he allowed an OBP of just .265. Don't forget that the Mets will obviously be supremely motivated due to the Ruben Tejada injury.  6* NY Mets

10* San Diego (8:30 ET): The dog is on a 9-2 ATS run on MNF (4-1 this year), but here it's the favorite being undervalued. Not factored enough into this line, at least in my opinion, is the dropoff at QB for Pittsburgh from Ben Roethlisberger to Mike Vick.  Sure, the Steelers probably "should have won" last Thursday at home over rival Baltimore, but that final result somewhat hid the fact Vick was generally pretty terrible in first game as the starter. Meanwhile, the Chargers have Philip Rivers. While he's being asked to carry his team, it's definitely a big edge at the most important position for San Diego. Yes, the Lightning Bolts struggled here at home against Cleveland last week. But I expect a more comfortable win here. More often than not, teams from the Pacific Time Zone have the edge over teams from the East in these primetime games ("Circadian advantage"). Lay the points.  

That narrow win over the Browns last week now doesn't look quite as shaky after Cleveland won at Baltimore yday w/ QB Josh McCown throwing for 450+ yards.  Rivers threw for 358 himself and three touchdowns in the 30-27 victory. He is #1 in the league throwing against a blitz, completing 80% of his pass attempts. Rivers should only get better moving forward as tonight TE Antonio Gates (suspended first 4 games) returns to the lineup.  This Steelers secondary, which is no longer even close to what it once was, has already allowed 7 TD passes this season.  This is one where I think the Chargers, despite questions along both lines, can simply "outscore" their opponents, who clearly have offensive issues of their own.

The Steelers gained only 253 total yards last week. That was against a Baltimore defense that was just torched by Josh McCown yday. Their only second half score was set up deep in Ravens territory via a turnover.  Excluding a kneeldown, Pittsburgh's offense had seven drives of four plays or fewer. Five times they went three and out while gaining three yards or less! Vick finished the game w/ only 124 yards passing on a paltry 4.8 yards per attempt. Remember the offense didn't really move the ball at all w/ Vick under center in a 12-6 win over the Rams the previous week. The Black & Gold are 0-3 SU/0-2-1 ATS as road dogs of 3.5 to 7 pts the L3 seasons.  10* San Diego

8* Montreal (1:05 ET):  This is a critical game for the Als, who need to win here in order to hold on to their "crossover" (i.e. final playoff) spot.  Winnipeg did them a slight favor Saturday by going to B.C. and winning, but that gives the Blue Bombers five wins on the season as well. The Als are 5-8 SU and the only team not to have yet played a game here in Week 16. That makes this a pretty favorable spot on Thanksgiving weekend (Canadian version) as they take on the Argos, who is coming off a critical home and home sweep of another division rival, Ottawa, including a 38-35 win Tuesday. That makes this Toronto's second game in less than a week while it's Montreal's 1st in 12 days. Take the points.

Despite the 5-8 SU record, the Alouettes only have a point differential of -2 and they were "in the black" prior to a humbling 39-17 road loss to the Redblacks on Oct 1. That made it B2B embarrassing setbacks away from home as only a few days prior they fell in Saskatchewan by 12 as two-point favorites.  But a return home should do the team some good, particularly the defense, which allows just 16.3 points per game here at Percival Molson Memorial Stadium. In four of the past five home games, the Als have held their opponents to 15 pts or less. That includes wins over both division leaders, Calgary and Hamilton. With a 20-year streak of making the playoffs on the line, this first meeting of the year vs. Toronto sets up as Montreal's biggest game of the season to date. 

The Argos, despite now being 8-5, have been outscored this year - by 33 points. While the Als have suffered five defeats this season by four points or less, Toronto has no such losses and in fact is now 4-0 SU in games decided by that slim margin. That obviously includes a 38-35 win at Ottawa last Tuesday, yet another in a series of come from behind efforts we've seen from this team this season. But not only is this the Argos' second game in less than a week, it's actually their third straight road game. They have the fellow Rogers' Centre resident Blue Jays to thank for that. The bottom line is that it's a bad spot and the home team is desperate for a win (and taking points to boot). 8* Montreal

8* NY Islanders (1:05 ET):  This one has "bounce back" written all over it.  The Isles are 0-2 thanks to having to open w/ a home and home against the defending Stanley Cup Champions (Chicago). You may recall that I played AGAINST them in the season opener and that game went to overtime (now 3 vs. 3) and the loss likely left them w/ little in the tank for the big debut here at Barclays Center Saturday where they fell 4-1.  Part of the issue here is the fact that No. 1 goalie Jaroslav Halak remains out w/ an unspecified upper-body injury and they've allowed a high # of shots to this point.  But for their second home game, I'd say the spot sets up well as its an early start against a team from the West. Look for the Isles to pick up their first win of the season.

Winnipeg, meanwhile, is 2-0 and opened w/ B2B road wins. They scored six goals at Boston in the opener and followed that up w/ a 3-1 win over lowly New Jersey. In both instances, I happened to be on the wrong end. But I'm not coming off my view that the Jets are likely to regress in 2015-16. They came into this season only 13-25 SU when off a win by 2+ goals. A third road game out East, in five days, with an early start is a very tough situation.  The road team did win both matchups between these two last year, but I see the trend being reversed here. It's likely going to be Ondrej Pavalec in net for the visitors and the last five times he's faced the Islanders, he's given up three goals each time (3.51 goals against average).

With Halak likely still out, it will probably be Thomas Griess in net for the home team. He has a 1.92 GAA in two-career starts vs. the Jets. Remember that the Isles were one of the highest scoring teams in the league a year ago and figure to be among the league-leaders again this season.  The team will be hungry after losing its opener in its new home.   8* NY Islanders

10* Indiana (8:35 ET): It's do or die for the Fever, who easily could have won all three games of this series, but instead now find themselves down 2-1 after losing at the buzzer in Game 3, here at home. After surprisingly dominating the opener (I had them!), 75-69, they faded late in Game 2 (also in Minnesota) due to foul trouble for Tamika Catchings and lost 77-71 (pushing as 6-pt dogs).  Then, they were a one-point favorite for Game 3, a contest that they hardly led, but also never trailed by more than seven. Both teams shot very well Friday night and for the Lynx it was their most points in a game since closing out Los Angeles in Rd 1 at home. Of Minnesota's six wins this postseason, half have been by three points or less. 

Minnesota is only 11-9 SU on the road this season. Prior to winning Friday night, they'd played only three times on the road since September 1st, losing twice (once at lowly Seattle!) and winning once (thanks to a bogus call in the Western Conf Finals at Phoenix). Their defensive numbers go up dramatically away from home, by about six points per game compared to what they allow at home. I do not anticipate them matching their overall shooting numbers from Game 3, which was their best field goal percentage in a game in over a month. Another edge from Friday that I don't see leaning so heavily in the Lynx favor here is reserve scoring. Their bench outscored the Fever's, 28-13. 

After being terrible from three-point range in the first two games, Minnesota made more than they missed from behind the arc in Game 3, including the GW from Moore. But the three-pointer remains a weapon in the Fever's favor as they led the league in long-distance shooting during the regular season.  This is also a team that I've taken in elimination games on the road twice this postseason and both times they prevailed. They're 4-0 in elimination games this postseason and 8-2 in that situation, a league-best, since 2012.  I've been pretty consistent about having the Fever rated as the better team here and I'm sticking w/ that for Game 4.  10* Indiana

10* Toronto (8:00 ET):  Like a lot of people, I'm shocked to find the Blue Jays down 0-2 in this series. It's not just because the regular season numbers lean so heavily in their favor either. In Game 1, they actually outhit the Rangers (6-5) and then had the lead late in Game 2 before a late rally forced a long, extra-inning affair. Things don't look very good for them heading back to Texas down 0-2, but they remain the favorites to win Game 3 and for good reason. This is the team that finished the regular season w/ - by far - the best run differential in the sport (+224) and offensively they essentially "lapped" the rest of the league in runs scored. I wouldn't be surprised to see a big night at the plate from them here as they stay alive in the series.

Losing both David Price and Marcus Stroman's starts is tough, but fortunately for the Jays, Game 3 starter Marco Estrada has looked good as well.  In his last three starts, despite nothing to show for it (all no-decisions), he has a 0.822 WHIP.  Considering a 1.057 WHIP for the year (28 starts), he's pitched much better than his record indicates (16-12 TSR). In his final regular start, an unfortunate one-run loss to Chris Archer & Tampa Bay, Estrada allowed only two runs and three hits in 6 2/3 innings. He struck out nine and didn't walk a single batter.  The last time he faced the Rangers was here in Arlington and he allowed just one run on four hits in another unfortunate result for the Jays (lost 4-1). You have to think that the "luck will turn" for Toronto as they actually should have had an even better regular season (win expectancy of a 103-win team). Many, myself included, had them dominating this series.

Toronto has picked a bad team for its first four game losing streak since mid-May. They've actually lost six of seven going back to the final day of September after not having lost more than two games in a row at any point since the All-Star Break! Again, they are due to break out.  As good as the Rangers have been on the road this season, they're a pretty pedestrian 43-38 at home. They go w/ Martin Perez in this spot and for the year his WHIP is 1.424 (4.46 ERA). He has not faced this potent Jays lineup all year. 10* Toronto

8* Dallas (4:25 ET):  This, I concede, is an ugly one where I ask you to "hold your nose." Though I played against the Cowboys (and won!) last week, Jason Garrett remains one of the better coaches in the entire league in the underdog role, going 22-9 against the spread (5-1 last year) including an outright win earlier this season at Philadelphia that I was on. Ironically, only Bill Belichick has a better ATS mark when taking points during that same time.  Home dogs of this size are rare, but while you saw San Francisco fail in a similar price range last week vs. Green Bay, that final score demonstrated the slim margin for error in such situations even if the discrepancy between the two sides is as great as it was there or seemingly is here.  Take the points.

Though 0-2 w/ Brandon Weeden as the starter, its not as if the record is solely on the Cowboys' backup QB.  In fact, the offense has actually scored one more point in the two games that he's started compared to the two w/ Romo!  Weeden has completed 76.5 percent of his pass attempts as well.  They've been competitive in both games, which were on the road, at two very tough places to play (Atlanta, New Orleans).  New England certainly represents a step up in class even from that, but as a big road favorite the Patriots have been quite vulnerable through the years, going 2-7 against the spread when laying three or more points.  This is probably one of the biggest road favorites we will see all season, so it's worth a shot even though New England is off a bye and Weeden has lost 12 consecutive starts.

The Dallas defense many be the key to this game as it will have Greg Hardy on the field for the first time.  Somewhat of a knucklehead off the field (that's putting it mildly!), Hardy can be a key contributor here.  Rolando McClain is another suspended player returning this week. Getting back to the Patriots' perceived invincibility, they are 0-2 ATS the past two seasons as a road fave of 7.5 to 10 points and 2-6 ATS their last eight in that price range.  Also, while the book on Belichick is to avoid betting against him off the bye, he's actually lost two of the last four seasons, both on the road.  8* Dallas

6* Houston (4:05 ET): I see no reason why you shouldn't back Dallas Keuchel, at home, in this situation. The Astros starting pitcher is of course 15-0 at Minute Maid Park this season w/ a 1.46 ERA and 0.889 WHIP (16-2 TSR in 18 starts).  All things considered, this seems like a pretty low price on the home team, especially when you consider how they've been in control for most of this series.  After taking Game 1, 5-2, they led much of the way in Game 2 before a late Royals rally essentially saved their season.  But the fact remains that Houston did its job in "stealing" the home field advantage away and coming into the series, this is the game everyone was penciling in them for a victory. I have them winning here and taking a 2-1 series lead.

Keuchel may end up being the AL Cy Young Award winner. On three days rest, he came out and threw six scoreless innings in the Wild Card Game, improving to 21-8 this season overall w/ a 2.42 ERA and 1.008 WHIP.  He's allowed just four runs total in his L4 outings, all resulting in Astros victories, and in the last three he has a 1.42 ERA and 0.842 WHIP.  He has faced the Royals twice this year and while the one time on the road did not go very well, predictably he dominated them here at home, going eight innings while allowing zero runs off seven hits. A lot of it has to do w/ Keuchel, but Houston has been an outstanding home team this season (53-28) and remember that today will be the first postseason game here in many, many years.  

To put things in perspective, Keuchel's home record is the best by any pitcher in the modern era. That 1.46 ERA is the lowest for a single season at home by any pitcher since former Astro Nolan Ryan back in the early 1970's! So, it just would be foolish to go against him here. Especially since Royals starter Edinson Volquez has a 1.500 WHIP in his L3 starts due to some control issues. This will be his first start since September 30th as well and we saw what a long layoff did to Toronto's David Price in the other ALDS. I expect Volquez to continue to be plagued by control issues here. The Royals are lucky that they're not down 0-2 in the series.  6* Houston

10* Washington (1:00 ET):  The Redskins, surprisingly, are one of a select number of teams to have outgained every foe to this point in the season. Granted, that involved a little "garbage time" against the Giants, but the team treated me last week in a 23-20 "upset" (were +3) at home vs. Philadelphia. QB Kirk Cousins typically does not play B2B good games, but getting more than one score here, he and the 'Skins are a great value and certainly capable of pulling the outright upset. I say that knowing full well that Atlanta is 4-0 SU/ATS, but there have been some close calls in there and they've been outgained in two games.  Consider that they are being asked to lay more points here than they were against the vastly inferior Texans. Take the points.

Including last week's number, which actually dropped prior to kickoff, the Falcons have not been asked to lay a touchdown in any game this year. In fact, they closed as a slight dog for each of their first three games. Offensively, everything has clicked for them the L2 games and the defense seems much improved under 1st year HC Dan Quinn. But compared to the L2 games, when they faced Dallas w/o Romo and a bad Houston team, this is a step up in class.  The Washington defense has not allowed more than 363 total yards in a game this season and is giving up just 19.3 points per game. The Atlanta offense is pretty dependent on WR Julio Jones, who is having an incredible start to the season, but his pace is likely to start slowing down. 

Meanwhile, on offense, expect the Redskins to be able to run the ball effectively in this matchup. They bring to the Georgia Dome the league's top ranked rushing offense and the Falcons are just 27th in yards per carry allowed (4.43). The key for Atlanta is they have gotten out to big leads in nearly all of their games, thus their opponents have not been able to run the ball as much as they'd probably like.  Cousins has some confidence after leading a 90-yard, GW drive last week. He must protect the ball here against a Falcons defense that forced four takeaways LW vs. Houston. Atlanta has not turned the ball over in three weeks.  This should end up being a very close game. 10* Washington

10* Baltimore (1:00 ET):  It's rare that I call for a blowout in the NFL, but I will here as the Ravens are ripe for a strong performance after getting extra time to prepare for their Week 5 opponent, who they have historically dominated.  It's been four close games so far for John Harbaugh's team, three of them not going their way. But, with their season very much on the brink, they rallied past rival Pittsburgh last Thursday in a stunning 23-20 overtime win. I think the fact that they were fortunate to win that game has the public still lukewarm on their overall outlook, but it's not as if they've necessarily played poorly in any game this year. Cleveland, meanwhile, left in "all on the field" last week in a painful 30-27 loss at San Diego. One of the league's worst teams, I cannot see the Browns being competitive in B2B games. Lay the points.

Baltimore does have a concern here, that being a lack of weapons surrounding QB Joe Flacco.  WR Steve Smith, Flacco's favorite target, is out here w/ an injured back.  But don't be surprised if this is the game where RB Justin Forsett finally gets going.  Despite their head coach's pedigree, the Browns' run defense has been awful under Mike Pettine.  Last week was the first time this season they did not allow 150 yards rushing. That was against a Chargers team w/ a terrible offensive line.  Still though, they found a way to allow 30 points and lose, even though QB Josh McCown actually played well. Don't forget that the Browns also allowed an average of 29 PPG in losses to the Raiders and Jets. Forsett gained 150 yards last week against the Steelers and LY averaged 6.5 YPC against this Cleveland defense.

With Flacco at quarterback, the Ravens are 13-1 SU all-time vs. the Browns and have run for 100+ yards in all but four of those games.  The team is also an impressive 32-9 straight up and 26-13-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  They really do seem undervalued in this spot. Consider that they were asked to lay double digits when hosting Cleveland last year, an easy 20-10 win. You could make the argument that the Ravens aren't as strong this year, but the difference isn't that severe and the Browns are still bad, plus off a heartbreaking loss to boot.  10* Baltimore

8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): This is somewhat of a classic "sharps vs. squares" play. That's not intended to mock or belittle anyone's betting strategy, but here we have a situation where despite receiving the vast majority of bets, Buffalo has seen the line actually come DOWN. Even though they lost outright last week, at home, to the Giants (were 6-pt favorites), I feel the Bills are still getting a residual "benefit of the doubt" due to dominant wins over the Colts and Dolphins. But, as we often see at the College level, sometimes past wins need to be reassessed and in this instance, neither win looks as impressive as it once did.  The Titans are off a bye here and have actually outgained all three opponents to date.  Take the points.

Prior to the bye week, Tennessee suffered a narrow defeat at the hands of division rival Indianapolis, but covered there as a small home dog. Their only other loss came on the road, at Cleveland, where they were -3 in the turnover battle.  The defense allowed fewer than 275 total yards in that game and did the same in the season opening win at Tampa Bay. They could have beaten Indianapolis two weeks ago, but blew a 13-point lead and failed on the potential game-tying two-point conversion.  Still though, I expect rookie QB Marcus Mariota and company to be able to move the ball in this game.  While you have Rex Ryan inheriting a defense that ranked near the top of the league in many metrics last season, the results for the Bills this year have been pretty disappointing. They've allowed an average of 376.2 yards per game to this point.

Penalties have also been a concern for these Bills. Last week, they were called for a season-high 17 and now have the dubious distinction of leading the league in that category w/ 47 for 428 yards.  Also, I wonder how much longer QB Tyrod Taylor can give the team adequate play. Taylor doesn't have LeSean McCoy at his disposal yet again and WR Sammy Watkins is out as well. Meanwhile, Mariota has thrown for 833 yards in three games w/ eight TD passes. He didn't have an interception until throwing two in the Colts game.  The Titans are certainly healthier coming off the bye and this is a pretty rare instance of Buffalo coming in as a road favorite. It's happened just one time each of the last four seasons and twice they've lost outright, including to the Raiders last season.  8* Tennessee

8* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): Few, if any, will be interested in laying points w/ the under-performing Eagles right now, but I'll take a flier. QB Sam Bradford finally seemed willing to open up last week, throwing eight passes of 20+ yards, completing four of them for 176 yards and two touchdowns.  In comes New Orleans, off a high-profile national TV win, that I was on.  But in watching the once-mighty Saints prevail in the Mercedes Benz Superdome, it occurred to me just how far they have truly fallen. It was a struggle getting to 26 points at home against a bad Dallas team, something that as recently as last year would have been somewhat unthinkable.  This team has never really traveled well, so lay the points.

While cashing in on New Orleans last week, a somewhat fortunate cover, I also cashed in going AGAINST Philadelphia as they lost outright (as small road favorites) in Washington. But as mentioned above, there were some positive signs coming out of last week, many of them having to do w/ Bradford. While the Eagles have yet to outgain a single opponent all season, the Saints hadn't either - until last week.  Bradford should build on last week's small success facing a secondary that has allowed 14 completions of 20+ yards, sixth most in the league. Furthermore, the Saints defense is last against the pass in terms of yards per attempt (9.8) and the Philly run game could finally get going here as New Orleans has allowed 17 runs of 10+ yards.

As "poorly" as the Eagles have played, they've been in every game. The kicking game has been bad and arguably cost them two games. The bottom line is that I think it is incorrect to write Chip Kelly's team off at this point.  Three of their first four games were on the road.  The New Orleans offense has not scored more than 22 points in regulation in any game this season and that season-high came in the game that Brees did not play, ironically enough.  When taking on a team w/ a losing record, the Eagles are both 8-5 straight up and against the spread under Kelly.   It's an odd thing, but when the public is backing an underdog, it raises red flags for me.  8* Philadelphia

10* Under Bears/Chiefs (1:00 ET):  This is a matchup of the league's two worst defenses, in terms of points per game allowed, but I'm going w/ the Under anyway. For Chicago, the defense was expected to be bad. In Kansas City, it's a major surprise. Their stop unit was one of the best in the league a year ago, holding 11 of 16 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Fast forward to this year and they've now allowed 30+ points in three consecutive games. They are now 4-0 Over this season.  But let's look at those last three opponents, shall we?  They were Denver, Green Bay (in Lambeau) and a red-hot Cincinnati club. All of a sudden, the defensive "woes" don't look so bad. At the same time, neither offense here impresses me that much.  Take the Under.

Last week, I took a winless Bears team and they rewarded my faith in them w/ an outright 22-20 win over the Oakland Raiders, as a home dog. They're not getting much of a chance here, even though QB Jay Cutler is back, replacing the horrible Jimmy Clausen. With Cutler under center, the team has been far more competitive, however all they could manage last week in the second half was a pair of field goals. A majority of Cutler's passes traveled five or less yards downfield. But he did benefit from a big day from Martellus Bennett, the tight end, a position the Raiders have really struggled against in 2015. Cutler still may be w/o WR's Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal (questionable) here. 

Additionally, the Chiefs' one true strength defensively plays well for them in this matchup. That strength is rushing the passer and Chicago's offensive line has been horrible for some time. On the other side of ball, though, Kansas City isn't exactly adept at throwing the ball downfield.  QB Alex Smith remains far too conservative for my liking. Furthermore, the offense, despite 461 total yds last week, continuously bogged down in the red zone, which resulted in SEVEN field goals (not three touchdowns) for 21 points.  Actually, four of those field goals were 40 yards or longer, so it was slightly before the red zone that they grinded to halt, more often than not. Kansas City's own offensive line has issues, having allowed a league-high 19 sacks.  10* Under Bears/Chiefs

6* LA Dodgers (9:05 ET): Homefield advantage hasn't meant much thus far in the MLB playoffs, with only two of the eight games won by the home team. Last night, the Dodgers ran into a red hot Jacob deGrom and they couldn't even get on the board until the bottom of the eighth. They did outhit the Mets for the game, 7-5, though. Tonight, they send Zack Greinke to the hill and if history is any indication, LA will bounce back and win this game.  I say that not only because Greinke is 10-1 in his 17 starts at Dodger Stadium this year (13-4 TSR) w/ a 1.46 ERA and 0.810 WHIP.  There's also the fact that only twice this year has a team beaten Clayton Kershaw & Greinke in consecutive games. This is a team that went 55-26 at home during the regular season (tied for MLB's best home record).

In any other year, Greinke would likely win the Cy Young.  But because of the Cubs' Jake Arrieta, he won't in 2015.  Still though, that in no way should diminish what Greinke has done this year.  Greinke went 19-3 overall (23-9 TSR) in 32 starts w/ a 1.70 ERA and 0.849 WHIP.  There were two starts all year where he allowed more than 3 ER.  Those came against last place teams, ironically enough, Philadelphia and Colorado and both were on the road.  The last time he allowed more than 2 ER in a home start was April!  That's while never lasting fewer than six innings in any start all year!  Watch if this line gets up to -200 (likely will) as the Dodgers won all eight times Greinke started w/ a ML of -200 or higher.  His one home start this year against the Mets saw him deliver seven shutout innings.

Homefield advantage should matter in this series. The Mets gave it away in the final week of the regular season, and as mentioned above the Dodgers finished tied for the best home record in all of baseball during the regular season.  Mets' starter Noah Syndergaard sees his numbers drop fairly dramatically away from home w/ a 4-8 TSR, 4.50 ERA and 1.348 WHIP.  This Mets' offense is still only averaging 1.9 rpg its last seven contests (.165 batting average!) and I do have concerns over their offense. When Greinke took the hill after a Kershaw loss the previous game, the team is 7-1 including a win over the Mets on the 4th of July. This game is the Dodgers' season. 6* LA Dodgers

9* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Both of these Central Division rivals won their opening game; St. Louis as expected at home over Edmonton and Minnesota in a "wild" come from behind fashion at Colorado. The Blues actually trailed their game 1-0 after one period and it was tied heading into the final 20 minutes. Their third and final goal actually didn't come until the final 18 seconds. As for the Wild, they actually trailed 4-1 heading into the third period of their game w/ the Avs before exploding for four goals in the final period, all in a five-minute span. I cashed the Over in that one & will come back w/ the Wild here, at home, as you'll recall they eliminated the Blues from LY's playoffs. They are 19-12 at home vs. St. Louis all-time.

It appears as if all is well for the Wild in the offensive zone.  They ranked an all-time franchise best 12th in goals per game last year and obviously got off to the great start in this year's opener. They did outshoot the Avalanche 30-23 for the game.  They went 6-3-1 last season against the Blues.  Goaltender Devan Dubnyk, someone I said would regress in my analysis Thursday, played well against St. Louis last year. He obviously struggled, as I'd anticipated, in the opener. But look for him to play better here following the subpar performance.

Between the pipes for the Blues, I have some concerns. They'll go w/ Jake Allen, who had just a .909 save percentage vs. the Wild last season and was the one in net for most of the playoff series. It was Brian Elliot there in the season opener, so this will be our first look at Allen in 2015-16.  The Wild are likely to have a better home record than they did a year ago (22-13-6).  They take this one and get the two points.  9* Minnesota

10* Kansas State (7:30 ET):  Bill Snyder is in his favorite role here, that of a home dog. Consider the last 12 times his Wildcats have been an underdog of seven points or more, home or road, the record is 10-2 against the spread.  That includes covering last week in Stillwater against a very good Oklahoma State team. While they were rested there, it was still a road game. Here in Manhattan, KSU has gone 15-3 straight up the last four seasons in Big 12 play. That includes a 5-1 ATS mark when taking points w/ three outright upsets. It's actually been awhile since Snyder has pulled a shocker here in "The Little Apple," though he did upset both Oklahoma and West Virginia on the road last season. I say take the points here as TCU is more vulnerable than people think.  

A lot went right for Gary Patterson and TCU last year as they finished 12-1 straight up and an FBS-leading 11-2 against the spread. That includes a 41-20 win over K-State in Fort Worth. But this season, there's been a bit of predictable regression as they've already had to survive a couple close calls, those coming at Minnesota and Texas Tech. Non-covers in both places dropped the Horned Frogs to a poor 2-7 ATS as road favorites the L3 seasons.  Last week, obviously, brought their most complete performance to date, a 50-7 demolition of Texas. But that was at home and I question just how much effort the Longhorns gave after falling into an huge early hole. TCU has lost at least one road game every year since joining the Big 12, including a 33-31 loss here two years ago. 

Last year, Kansas State was a home dog just once and they covered due to holding a high octane Auburn offense to just 20 points, the Tigers' second fewest points scored in any game all season. I expect Snyder to once again have his defense ready Saturday night. On offense, they are down to a fourth string QB (yikes), but that didn't stop them last week at Oklahoma State where they led most of the way, only to lose on a last second field goal. There was also a Pokes' touchdown right before the half that should never have happened because of an incorrect call by the officials.  Regardless, Snyder is now 7-0 ATS his last 7 October games. 10* Kansas State

8* Tennessee (3:30 ET):  It's a matter of who can get over the bigger disappointment here in the second Saturday of October as Tennessee, who is just 2-3, hosts a Georgia team that just got humiliated last week on its own campus by Alabama.  Yes, once again it appears if HC Mark Richt will fail to take his team to the "next level" as a 38-10 beatdown at the hands of the Crimson Tide was telling, to say the least. It was UGA's first real test of the entire season and the result was an unmitigated failure. Of course, Butch Jones' seat in Knoxville is no less warm as the Vols' HC was expected to be much better in his third season w/ 18 starters back. With Alabama on deck following next week's bye, things could get real ugly here. However, as a home dog, I think UT is an excellent value here.  Take the points.

The idea that many who are backing Georgia in this one have is that it's a bounce back spot. But the same holds true for Tennessee, who now has lost three one-score games (one in OT), two of them here at Neyland Stadium.  A pretty easy case could be made that this is the best 2-3 SU team in the country right now.  They have had a double digit lead in all five games this season, so it's rather incredible that they've lost three times. Talk about the "just due" factor; the Vols have also lost to Georgia four straight times, all by eight points or less.  There was some turmoil from within the program this week w/ the dismissal of WR Pig Howard, but he had all of one catch this season.  Eventually, a team/program is simply due to breakthrough and for Tennessee I believe this will be their week.  Somehow, they have won just 4 of their last 17 SEC home games!

The public has loaded up on Georgia in this game and again I think that's odd since both teams are pretty much in the same situation. Right now, I can't imagine that the Bulldogs' collective consciousness is any higher than that of the Volunteers.  Last week we saw Georgia beaten in a fashion that hasn't happened all season w/ UT. Incredibly, there have been just 17 blown double-digit leads in College Football this season and the Vols have three of them! The home team has the better offense in this one as Georgia QB Grayson Lambert comes off a disastrous performance against 'Bama where he completed just 10 of 24 pass attempts for 86 yards.  8* Tennessee

8* Nebraska (3:30 ET):  Here's yet another game where both teams are coming off disappointing losses and I believe the home side to be undervalued.  Wisconsin is a team that I don't think we know that much about at this point.  They were humbled in the season opener vs. Alabama and followed that w/ three cupcake wins in Madison. But then last week, again at home, they fell to unbeaten Iowa, 10-6, despite an edge in total yardage (320-221). Normally, that might have me calling for them to bounce back in this situation, but Nebraska certainly has endured its fair share of heartbreak as well with all three losses this year coming by five points, one of them in OT and another on a Hail Mary. Plus, the Badgers have never won here in Lincoln (0-3 SU all-time).  Lay the small number.

Last week saw the Cornhuskers fall 14-13 in a pretty ugly game to upstart Illinois. They led 13-0 going into the fourth quarter, but lost in the final 10 seconds on a TD pass that punctuated a drive that began w/ just 51 seconds left in the clock. Again, all three Cornhusker losses this year have come either in the final ten seconds or in OT.  So basically you're talking about three plays, all going against them, that have had a drastic impact on the YTD record.   But now they're back at home and take the field w/ double revenge.  Not only did they lose 59-24 last year in Madison (were +6), giving up a then FBS record 408 yards rushing to Melvin Gordon (now in NFL), but there's the 2012 Big 10 Championship Game as well where they were humiliated 70-31 as three-point FAVORITES. 

The Nebraska defense has been much better against the run this season, especially outside the tackles, where they are allowing just 2.2 yards per carry. That's the best mark among all Power 5 conference schools.  Adding to the Blackshirts' potential good fortune here is the fact Wisconsin's run game is in total decline under 1st year HC Paul Chryst as they are averaging their fewest yards per game on the ground in nearly a decade. Last week saw them gain just 86 yards on 34 carries as they really miss RB Corey Clement.  QB Joel Stave doesn't scare any defense w/ his arm and I just can't see the Badgers coming in and winning what is their first "true" road game of the season. 8* Nebraska

10* Over Northwestern/Michigan (3:30 ET):  This play goes against every bit of conventional wisdom that's out there as these two defenses rank #1 and #2 in scoring in the entire country and last year's game, won by Michigan, was a 10-9 final and scoreless at the half. Combined, the two teams are allowing just 14.6 points per game and they are also 1-2 on third down defense and both in the top six in yards per play.  Michigan is off B2B shutouts and has allowed just 14 points - TOTAL - its last four games. Northwestern is also off a shutout victory, 27-0 over Minnesota. But this is probably the lowest total we'll see all season in College Football, so we have to take a chance, especially w/ both teams being 5-0 Under so far. Take the Over.

Incredibly, Michigan has allowed fewer than 140 total yards in three of its last four games. The last two weeks, here at home vs. BYU and at Maryland, have seen them allow a total of just 105 each game!  This is clearly a pace that cannot be maintained, even if the Northwestern offense is having its own struggles this year.  That being said, the Wildcats did roll up 546 total yards against Ball State two weeks ago.  Michigan suffered a major loss last week when senior DE Mario Ojemudia went down to a season-ending ACL tear. Ojemudia was second on the team in tackles for loss (6) and had two sacks in last year's win over N'western.  The key here is Northwestern's Big 10 leading rushing attack (248.8 yards per game) going against the staunchest run defense in the conference. While the Wolverines may limit them on the ground, it will be only to a degree and this is certainly the best offense they will have faced since Utah in the season opener.

The same holds true for the Northwestern defense; Michigan is likely the best offense they will have faced all year. QB Jake Rudock, who does need to learn to protect the ball better, is 2-0 in his college career against the Wildcats.  That's from his days at Iowa and he's thrown over 400 yards in the two wins.  The Wolverines are also likely getting back RB De'Veon Smith, who last year gashed the N'western defense for 121 yards on just 18 carries. Three Michigan games (first three) have seen at least 35 total pts scored while N'western has had two games of least 41 total pts. 10* Over Northwestern/Michigan

8* Georgia Tech (3:30 ET):  The Yellow Jackets really let me down last week as they lost at home to North Carolina, 38-31, as touchdown favorites. It was their third consecutive loss, a shocking stretch for a team that many (not me!) expected to win the ACC Coastal this year. On the other side, we have Clemson, who treated me quite well last Saturday even though they struggled to hold on here in Death Valley against an undermanned Notre Dame team. Luckily, I bet that game early so I had the Tigers at a far more favorable number compared to where the line closed. But that doesn't change the fact that this has all the makings of a terrible letdown spot for Dabo Swinney's squad against a very desperate underdog. Take the points.

While I figured Georgia Tech might very well decline in 2015, I did not feel that it would be this severe nor come this quickly. The vaunted triple option has failed to gain more than 255 yds on the ground in any of the losses.  Consider that last year's group averaged a whopping 342 yards rushing per game.  They did outgain Duke for the game two weeks ago, however, and last week led UNC 21-0 late in the second quarter at which point they had an incredible 20:38 to 4:48 edge in time of possession.  They still led 28-24 going into the fourth quarter, finished w/ a very slight edge in total yards and were +6 (27-21) in first downs. As you might have guessed, a -2 turnover margin cost them. It was the first game all year that the Georgia Tech defense failed to produce a turnover, in fact they had at least two takeaways in each of the first four games.

 Georgia Tech crushed Clemson last year in Atlanta, 28-6 as two-point dogs.  That was one of just three Tigers' losses in 2014, but while normally the revenge angle would factor in, here it is minimized because of the big win the team is coming off last Saturday night. Forcing four Irish turnovers was huge there as Clemson was actually outgained 437-298 for the contest.  Clemson is now (rightfully) being discussed as a team that might run the table, which would obviously lead to an appearance in the College Football Playoff.  All season long, we've constantly been reminded to "buy low" and "sell high" on teams and that's what we have here as I expect a close game.  8* Georgia Tech

10* Army (12:00 ET):  This is a really tricky spot for Duke, who steps out of ACC play following B2B conference wins (over Ga Tech and Boston College) to lay double digits w/ a bye week on deck. Kudos to the job David Cutcliffe has done here the L3 years in Durham as the Blue Devils are a stunning 23-9, both straight up and against the spread, during that time. That's after having little to no success for about 20 years (going back to Steve Spurrier's time here). But while they've even fared pretty well as DD chalk, this is an improved Cadets squad as all four of their losses have been by six points or less.  As a result, they're 4-1 ATS and I like the points here in an early Saturday kickoff.

Army outgained Penn State, 293-264, last week in a 20-14 loss as 25.5-point road dogs.  Though the Nittany Lions have had their fair share of troubles early on this season, I'm not convinced that they aren't still better than Duke. The week prior saw the Black Knights roll up an incredible 556 yards rushing in a 58-36 road win over Eastern Michigan. They're still searching for that first win this year here in West Point, but both losses have come by a total of only five points.  Considering the way this Duke defense has struggled against the run each of the L3 weeks (179.3 YPG allowed!), I expect Army to definitely be able to move the ball in this game.  They were -3 in turnovers last week, which killed them, as two of the three fumbles led to 10 points for Penn State. The other came on the Nittany Lions side of the field. 

Duke's defensive numbers, overall, look impressive, but the offense still has a ways to go.  In two of the last three games, they've been held to 10 pts or less and last week they won despite not scoring a touchdown for the first time since 1978.  It was three field goals resulting in a 9-7 win over B.C, at home, and they had to survive a missed FG attempt by the Eagles w/ just over two minutes to go in order to preserve the victory.  It was their second week in a row under 300 yds total (just 228) and consider that in the previous game (a 34-20 upset win over Ga Tech), the Blue Devils were actually outgained.  This has all the makings of a classic "trap game" for Duke.  10* Army

8* Texas (12:00 ET):  This represents an extraordinarily "buy low" opportunity on one of the teams in the Red River Rivalry as Charlie Strong is on the hot seat in Austin. His Longhorns were humiliated again last week, this time losing 50-7 (as 14-pt underdogs) at #2 TCU in a total "laydown" effort that actually saw players tweeting at halftime about a desire to transfer out of the program! It undoubtedly looks ugly for Strong right now as he's staring a 1-5 SU record right in the face. But consider two of the team's losses this year have come by a field goal or less (both as a result of special teams' blunders).  Never in the last 10 years has UT closed as a dog of this size. Last year, they were 16-pt pups in the RRR and stayed within five of the Sooners. Strong knows he can't get blown out here, so take the points.

Everything set up pretty well for OU last week, at home and off a bye, vs. West Virginia.  They prevailed 44-24 thanks to five WVU turnovers and actually only outgained the Mountaineers by less than 60 yards despite the lopsided final score.  They (Oklahoma) were actually -10 in first downs for the game!  With under one minute to go in the third quarter, it was actually a three-point game. The Sooners, who admittedly I'm high on this year (have them in the Playoff), struggled early in each of their first three games and were especially lucky to come back and beat Tennessee on the road. The defense allowed 38 pts and over 600 total yards in a non-cover against Tulsa (at home!) three weeks ago. Don't forget that this was a team that was upset FIVE different times last year when favored!

An outright win here is extremely unlikely, but the underdog has found plenty of success in previous installments of the RRR. I already mentioned Texas easily covering as 16-pt dogs last year. Two years ago, the Longhorns were +12 and won outright, 36-20.  Overall, double digit dogs are on a 5-2 ATS run in this rivalry, including three outright upsets. Oklahoma is just 2-7 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points the L3 seasons.  Texas responded well off its first blowout loss of the season (to Notre Dame), beating Rice 42-28, a game they actually led 42-14. The four teams the Longhorns have lost to this year (ND, Cal, OK St, TCU) are a combined 19-1 SU, remember. Against all odds, I expect Strong's team to show up again.  8* Texas

5* LA Dodgers (9:45 ET):  Road teams have been cleaning up so far in the playoffs, but this is one game (and one series!) where I feel that trend will be reversed. Clayton Kershaw, one of two Cy Young "candidates" (I'd still give the award to Arrieta) for the Dodgers gets the baseball for Game 1. The Dodgers are 55-26 at home this year (tied for best home record in MLB) as opposed to 37-44 on the road. While Kershaw was shockingly a money-loser during the regular season (-5.3 units), I can make the argument that he's undervalued in this situation as he had a 14-4 TSR as a ML favorite of -200 or higher. As a team, LA was 24-7 during the regular season as ML favorite of -200 or higher (6-1 at home in the -200 to -225 range). Lay the juice. 

A 2-9 team start record in one-run games is what kept Kershaw's record from being more impressive, but his individual numbers continue to look as strong as ever.  He struck out 301 batters (most in MLB) in 232 2/3 innings and opponents hit just .194 against him for the year. He was top three in WHIP (0.88), trailing only Arrieta and teammate Greinke. What was considered a "down" year for Kershaw would actually be considered a career year for 95 percent of pitchers. He has had some postseason struggles in the past, but the difference between he and David Price is that his struggles have primarily all been against one team (St. Louis).  Even though the Mets offense was transformed after bringing Yoenis Cespedes into the fold, they still rank 28th for the year in team batting average. 

Jacob deGrom, a very good pitcher in his own right, gets the baseball in Gm 1 for New York. But I view this matchup very much the same way I did the NL Wild Card Game where you had a very good pitcher (Gerrit Cole) that simply was not as good as his opponent (Arrieta).  The Mets had to scratch and claw their way just to finish one game above .500 on the road. Remember that they played in a pretty terrible division, with three bad teams in it, and as result went 47-29 vs. the NL East. They were just .500 against everybody else. They were 4-3 against the Dodgers, but in two games versus Kershaw, they were held to just 1 ER and eight hits in 16 innings, including a CG shutout.  5* LA Dodgers

8* Indiana (8:05 ET):  After cashing an outright winner w/ the Fever (were +6) in Game 1, I correctly decided it was time to "lay off" them in Game 2.  The idea that they could win in Minnesota twice just seemed too far-fetched. But they did lead outright much of the way Tuesday, not giving it up until late in the third quarter when the Lynx went on a big 13-3 run. Still though, thanks to a late "meaningless" layup by the Fever w/ no time remaining, I was able to cash the Over and they were able to push as six-point underdogs. (Note: The Over shouldn't have been that close of a call. The teams combined for 80 pts in the 1st half and had 122 through three quarters). The series now shifts back to Indiana for Games 3 and 4 and given that I have them rated as the better team, I clearly think they are being undervalued tonight at home.

There was a bit of officiating controversy in Game 2 as Fever star Tamika Catchings spent most of the game in foul trouble.  She was called for two quick fouls in the first 5:30 of the game and had to go to the bench w/ five midway through the third quarter. That, not coincidentally, is when Minnesota made its big run.  You have to expect that Catchings won't be in that kind of foul trouble here and thus Indiana's chances look pretty good.  This is a team that is 13-6 SU at home this year, averaging over 80 points per game. Minnesota, meanwhile, is a money-burning 7-12 ATS on the road. This will be only their third road game since the start of September and after losing the first two (including one at lowly Seattle!), they again benefited from an officiating controversy (that the league later admitted they got wrong) in a one-point win over Phoenix in Game 2 of the last round. Overall, the Lynx have failed to cover 7 of their last 10 games.

Defensively, the Lynx are much worse on the road. They allow 74.8 points per game, which is six more than they are allowing this season at home.  Consider that they are also just 6-14 ATS when taking the floor on two or more days rest.  The three-pointer remains a big edge here for the Fever, who are #1 in the league from behind the arc, while Minnesota has missed 16 of its 18 attempts in the series.  8* Indiana

9* Chicago (7:35 ET):  I certainly don't think I'm alone in liking both of these teams coming into the year.  But w/ the Blackhawks off a disappointing loss in their home opener, I like them even on the road against a top tier opponent.  Perhaps it was a case of "too much emotion" in the building Wednesday night as the 'Hawks celebrated LY's Stanley Cup win before the puck dropped and then fell into an early hole, trailing 3-1 at the end of the first period. They did end up outshooting the Rangers though, 34-27, and they'll certainly need to "pack their offense" here if they want to down the Islanders, a trendy pick to win the Metropolitan this year.  I'm banking on the defending champs bouncing back.

While offense figures to be no issue for the Isles in 2015-16, I wonder if goaltender Jaroslav Halak will be able to match last year's numbers.  This is also a new home venue for the team (Barclays Center) after the decrepit Nassau Coliseum became no longer viable.  The Isles were a strong 25-14-2 on home ice last season; I wonder if they will be able to match that record in a now unfamiliar setting.  Even w/ the near-career year from Halak, New York still found itself near the bottom of the league in goals allowed (230). No other playoff team gave up more.  Meanwhile, Chicago finished tied for the league lead in fewest goals allowed at 189.   9* Chicago

10* New Jersey (7:05 ET):  Winnipeg shocked me (and probably a lot of other people!) by coming out and winning 6-2 in Boston last night.  The odds of B2B road wins to open the season seems small though, especially on no rest, even if the opponent is lowly New Jersey. Little is expected in 2015-16 from the Devils, who many feel will finish in last place in the Metropolitan. But it's a long season and there will be plenty of future opportunities to go against them. Here, they are rested and playing their opener at home against a foe off a surprise road win the previous night. It's as good a spot as we might find for New Jersey all year!

Goal scoring is considered the biggest issue for the Devils coming into this year, but I don't think we'll have to worry much about goaltender Cory Schneider, who has a career 1.98 goals against average vs. the Jets and was the one between the pipes for a shootout win here in East Rutherford early last season. Consider that going back to 2010, Schneider has the league's best GAA among qualifiers!  If they can find the back of the net themselves a few times in this game, the team figures to be in pretty good shape.  While they were pretty bad on the road last season, New Jersey did finish a respectable 19-14-8 at home. 

The Jets lost 12 of 19 games last season when playing w/o rest & are just 14-25 the L39 times they have been off a win by 2+ goals.  I discussed in yday's analysis a projected regression in goal for them this season, but because of their offense that didn't really come into play last night in Boston.  But it remains unlikely that Michael Hutchinson (or last night's starter Ondrej Pavalec) will be able to match last year's lofty numbers.  Winnipeg allowed 31 shots last night, which is a lot.  Last night's production on the other end of the ice was downright shocking considering that last year they averaged just 2.4 goals per game on the road. They come back "down to Earth" here. 10* New Jersey

10* Marshall (7:00 ET):  Last week, I made a rare mistake of underrating Marshall's home field advantage as they ended up blowing out Old Dominion, 27-7 as just under a three touchdown favorite. Not again. This week, they host Southern Miss, who is 5-0 against the spread so far and clearly attracting the attention of the public. In my only bad day of College Football this season (2-4 last Sat), I also made the mistake of going against the Golden Eagles as they took care of business against North Texas, 49-14 as 16-pt chalk.  But as mentioned in LW's analysis, with Alabama checking in as a slight dog against Georgia, Marshall now is the current record-holder for most consecutive weeks being favored (30).  Considering their strong homefield advantage (15-1 SU/11-4 ATS L16), this is a short number. Lay the points.

It is certainly a surprise to see Southern Miss having started this well, whether you're talking their straight up record (3-2) or ATS record (5-0).  But then again, they were either favored or a one-point dog in all three SU wins, which came against Austin Peay, Texas State and North Texas. The losses, to Mississippi State and Nebraska, are certainly excusable and they were competitive against both. But the amount of support they've drawn here is too much and as a result, driven the number down too far. Consider that when these teams met LY in Hattiesburg, Marshall was a 25-point ROAD favorite. Now, as stated last week, the Thundering Herd aren't as strong this season. But the drop off certainly isn't this severe. The L3 years have seen Marshall beat Southern Miss by a combined margin of 183-54!

Marshall has been outgained in two of its wins this year (Purdue and Kent State) and suffered a loss at Ohio.  But last week was certainly one of their more "complete" performances as they held ODU scoreless until the final two minutes, forced four turnovers and allowed just 285 yards total. On offense, the concern still centers around the potential absence of RB Devon Johnson.  But I wouldn't be too concerned here because backup Tony Johnson came in and gained 127 yards on 32 carries last week and Southern Miss cannot stop the run.The Golden Eagles' defense has allowed at least 185 yds rushing to all four FBS opponents this year and allowed an average 600 yards total in its two road games. 10* Marshall

10* Chi Cubs (6:45 ET):  I had the Cubs in the Wild Card Game Wednesday night in Pittsburgh (can't go against Arrieta!) and will come back w/ them here as believe it or not, I believe them to be a better ballclub right now compared to St. Louis. While history shines brightly on teams that win two-thirds of their first 75 games (which the Cardinals did), the fact is the Cards also have been a fairly pedestrian 50-37 their L87 games.  They did finish the regular season w/ an 11-8 head to head record against the Cubs, but have lost four of the last six meetings. The Cards also did not end the regular season well, getting shut out in all three games of their final series (by Atlanta!) and the Yadier Molina injury looms large here. Go w/ the Cubs.

Road teams have opened these playoffs 4-0, never trailing at any point. That certainly bodes well for Chicago as does tonight's pitching matchup of Jon Lester vs. John Lackey, in my opinion. St. Louis has struggled in the past against southpaws and while his team start record (17-15) is fairly pedestrian, Lester's numbers are indicative of a strong season. On the road, he delivered a 2.95 ERA and 0.975 WHIP. Lately, he's been even stronger w/ a 0.810 WHIP his L3 starts, even though in one of them he did allow four runs in six innings in a 4-3 loss to the Cardinals at Wrigley Field. But, note that just 11 days earlier Lester came here to Busch Stadium and delivered seven strong innings of two-hit ball, allowing only one run. He threw seven scoreless innings against them back in July as well.

St. Louis allowed - by far - the fewest number of runs in all of baseball during the regular season.  Yet, despite that, I'm not totally confident in any of their starters in this series, at least not to the degree I'd be confident in backing either Arrieta or Lester. All-Star catcher Molina will be wearing a splint on his thumb and there was some question whether or not he would even play in tonight's series opener.  Wearing a splint can certainly have an ill-effect on him at the plate and even behind it, which is where he is beneficial to this team the most.  Do not forget the Cubs finished the regular season w/ MLB's best road record. 10* Chi Cubs

10* Over Wild/Avalanche (9:05 ET): Playing in the toughest division in the sport (Central), Colorado regressed hard (was expected) last season, but still finished w/ 90 points, which was easily the most among last place teams in the league. In fact, the other three teams that finished in the respective division basements were all at 71 points or lower.  Goaltending, which was such a strength in the Avs' surprise run two years ago, was the primary culprit but it should be pointed out that their netminders faced a LOT of shots (33.2 per game!), which is never a recipe for success. Meanwhile, goaltending was a driving force in the Wild's impressive second half run last year, but 2015-16 will be their turn to regress in that department.  I like the Over in this season opener between division rivals.

These teams played five times last year and the Under surprisingly went 4-0-1 in those games. Colorado won only once, in the fifth and final matchup, and did so despite only having 21 shots for the game. They were shutout each of the first three matchups w/ Minnesota, which is pretty rare to see in any head to head series of games. Then again, considering the Avs failed to top 18 shots in two of those losses, the lack of scoring maybe shouldn't come as a surprise. I don't think that string of poor offensive showings is sustainable, especially when you factor in likely regression from Wild goaltender Devan Dubnyk, who had the best run of his career last season after coming over from Edmonton.  The Over was 11-5 in Colorado home games last year when the total was 5.0 goals.

In addition to likely regression between the pipes, the Wild don't figure to be as good on the penalty kill either in 2015-16. They led the league in this department last year at 86.3 percent, an astoundingly high number when you consider only two other Western Conference teams were above 84 percent. One of those was Colorado, who ranked 4th in the league on the PK.  Simply put, I do not expect either team to maintain its strong numbers from last year and power play goals are probably a reality here. A reality that helps to send this one Over the total.  10* Over Wild/Avalanche

Note: Matt Hasselbeck has been announced as the Colts' starter. The play still stands.

10* Over Colts/Texans (8:25 ET): Obviously, we're dealing w/ the "unknown" here when it comes to the Colts' QB situation, but regardless I like this one to finish Over the total. Indianapolis is facing a Houston defense that just gave up 48 points last week in an ugly loss in Atlanta.  While the Texans' offense has yet to score more than 21 points in a game this season (they have their own QB issues), I see them setting a new season-high here against a Colts' defense that up until last week hadn't been playing very well at all. Remember that two weeks ago, Indy gave up 33 points in a wild road win over Tennessee. The Under may be 7-2 the last nine meetings between these two, but this is a lower number than either of LY's two matchups. Take the Over.

It's only Week 5 and already Texans HC Bill O'Brien has been flip-flopping quarterbacks.  Brian Hoyer came into the year as the anointed starter, but that didn't last long as he was pulled in favor of Ryan Mallett in the very first game! Hoyer got called back into action last week when the team was way down to the Falcons. But it will be Mallett getting the starting nod here and that's probably for the best.  Arian Foster quietly made his return to the field last week and he needs more touches here as in eight career games vs. the Colts, he's averaging 120 YPG on 6.0 yards per carry and has eight touchdowns. Because they fell behind so quickly at Atlanta, the Texans really couldn't establish Foster. The previous week, without Foster, they ran for 186 yards in their only win this season.

Obviously, we want Andrew Luck on the field here for the Colts.  But if veteran backup Matt Hasselbeck is called into duty for a second straight week, then that's fine too.  Hasselbeck completed 30 of 47 pass attempts last week.  While that game finished w/ a final score of just 16-13 (w/ OT), the Colts' third Under of the season, their defense actually gave up over 400 yards.  Houston has just four wins all-time against Indianapolis (in 26 games) and a big reason for that is the Colts have scored at least 23 points in 20 of those contests. They'd scored at least 25 in four straight before a 17-10 win at the end of last season. I expect a high scoring game. 10* Over Colts/Texans

8* SMU (8:00 ET):  While the line probably won't get to four touchdowns, I do like a much improved SMU team (under 1st year HC Chad Morris) taking this many after a several point move.  Quietly, Houston probably has one of the better shots at going undefeated in the entire country.  They may not be a dog in any remaining game. SMU likely won't threaten to pull the outright upset here (0-27 SU as dog of +21.5 to +31.5), but having already taken on both Baylor and TCU, they certainly won't be intimidated. Since staying within 21 of TCU, it's been back to back poor performances, first an outright loss to FCS James Madison and then a somewhat misleading 49-23 loss to East Carolina. That's what's driven this number up and now it's a good value on the dog. Take the points.

Houston hasn't exactly taken on a high level of competition. They did go to Louisville and win (were +3 in TO's), but their other three opponents were Tulsa, Texas State and Tennessee Tech.  Last week was just a two-touchdown win in Tulsa (were 9-pt favorites) and the fourth straight game where the defense allowed 300 yards passing.  That could end up biting them here as Morris' offense has seen the passing game come around the L3 wks after running the ball for 178+ yards in each of the first four games. The Mustangs couldn't run it at all last week vs. East Carolina, but actually did have an early 23-7 lead in that game before a change at QB for Pirates totally swung things. SMU also lead Houston at the half last season and they were a much worse team (finished 1-11 SU) then compared to now.

Now, Houston is likely to gash the SMU defense on the ground in this one. But their own defense has gotten progressively worse (in terms of yardage allowed) each passing week and giving this many points should keep the underdog in the game throughout. This is pretty rarified air for the Cougs, who have not laid more than three touchdowns to an FBS opponent since a shocking 30-13 outright LOSS to Texas State in the 2012 season opener! I just think that the strides SMU has made under Morris aren't being factored in here.  8* SMU

10* Under Astros/Royals (7:35 ET): Turns out that I grossly overrated Houston's road woes as despite having an AL-worst record away from home (34-48), they've actually outscored opponents in those games!  They also had Dallas Keuchel to carry them in Tuesday's Wild Card Game against a Yankees team that seemingly lost the ability to hit down the stretch. I'm still lukewarm on the Astros' chances here, however, therefore we're turning to the total. Kansas City will go w/ Yordano Ventura, not Johnny Cueto, for Game 1 and that's just fine by me as the right-hander has a 1.80 ERA and 0.850 WHIP his L3 starts, all of them staying Under. Houston's Collin McHugh has pitched nearly as well during that same time frame and the Under was 4-1-1 in the six regular season matchups between these two clubs. Take the Under.

There was only one head to head meeting between these two teams that saw more than seven total runs scored.  We probably won't see the pitcher who started for the Astros that day (Vincent Velasquez) in that capacity in this series. We won't be seeing Keuchel until Game 3 in Houston, but the positive there is that if the 'Stros can "steal" one of these first two games, they are likely to go up 2-1 in the series as Keuchel hasn't lost at home all year. Tonight, it's McHugh, who is 3-0 w/ a 2.49 ERA and 1.015 WHIP his L3 outings. After many of McHugh's early season starts went Over the total, the Under is 10-5-1 his L16. This will be Kansas City's first time seeing him in 2015. Both teams here have gone Under in three straight.

Kauffman Stadium lends itself to the Under and is spacious enough that Houston's home run ability will be somewhat nullified. Remember that the Astros have a rather "feast or famine" approach at the plate as they had the unique distinction of ranking 2nd in the league in both home runs and strikeouts.  That should play well for Ventura, who had 11 K's in his final regular season start and 81 in his last 11.  It would be nice if the favored Royals could hold serve tonight in Gm 1 as it could lead to not having to play the bottom of the ninth, a big edge for Under bettors, especially w/ the additional half run to work with. 10* Under Astros/Royals

9* Boston (7:05 ET):  The Bruins seems to be at a crossroads of sorts coming into 2015-16 as they failed to even make the playoffs last season and figure to be nothing more than a "middle of the road" club. But I like them here, at home, against a Winnipeg team that I see regressing.  The Jets did make the playoffs a season ago, but bowed out in what was actually a very competitive four-game sweep at the hands of Anaheim. But that's created inflated expectations for this year and I do not believe they will be getting the same quality goaltending that they did in 2014-15. Boston was pretty strong on home ice last year, averaging 32.9 shots per game.  Take them.

Something to keep in mind is that the Bruins still finished w/ 96 points last season, the most ever by a non-playoff team. That was only three less than the Jets, who just squeaked into the playoffs as a Wild Card in the Western Conference.  Defense was certainly not an issue in Boston as last year's club ranked eighth in goals allowed (2.5 per game).  Goaltender Tuukka Rask is solid; he made 70 starts last year and finished w/ a .931 save percentage here at home. He's owned Winnipeg in the past w/ a 1.48 goals against average his L6 starts vs. them (all wins) and overall the Bruins have beaten the Jets 13 straight times here in Beantown.

Meanwhile, as stated earlier, I expect Winnipeg's goaltending numbers to regress this season.  Ondrej Pavalec turned in a career-best 2.28 GAA and five shutouts in 2014-15, but he's been just awful here in Boston w/ a 0-6-1 record (4.00 GAA) in eight starts.  The last time the Jets won a game here in Boston was 2007!  On the road, Winnipeg averaged only 2.4 goals per game last year and they are 10-20 the L2 seasons in away games when the total is 5 or less.  The B's outshot the Jets in both games last season. 9* Boston

5* Toronto (3:37 ET):  Normally, playing a favorite of this size might be considered "risky," but a) this is the playoffs and b) I can't make a single case for Texas here. The Rangers do have the American League's best road record, but the Blue Jays are an equally impressive 53-28 at home (outscoring teams by 2.0 rpg!) and they have David Price starting Game 1. It almost seems as if Texas is "conceding" the series opener as they will send Yovani Gallardo to the hill, not Cole Hamels. Toronto, easily, had the best run differential in baseball during the regular season (+221) and the win expectancy of a 103-win team. They took four of six from the Rangers this year and also have the edge in day games (37-27 vs. 23-24). After road teams won both Wild Card games, the Jays take this one easily at home.

Price was a huge addition to this Toronto team where pitching was a legitimate question in the first half.  He may end up as the Cy Young winner w/ an 18-5 record in 32 starts (24-8 TSR), 2.53 ERA and 1.080 WHIP. He's 9-1 in 11 starts since coming over from Detroit w/ a 2.30 ERA. That includes wins in each of his last five outings. Against Texas, on August 26th, Price allowed just two runs and five hits over six innings in an easy 12-4 Jays' win. This has been a very consistent pitcher all year; 13 of his last 16 starts have been quality w/ him going only five innings (2 ER allowed) in one that wasn't. The other two, one of them the regular season finale, were both against the same opponent (Tampa Bay). With 11 days' rest here, Price should be at his best.

Of course, we have to talk about this Toronto offense as well.  Consider that Texas finished the year third in total runs scored (751), but that was 140 less than the league leading Jays, a gap that was larger than the difference between #3 and #29! Toronto was #1 in home runs, slugging and OBP. They scored 10 or more runs in 26 games this year and have a .750 win percentage w/ Troy Tulowitzki in the lineup!  Gallardo has an ugly 2.00 WHIP his L3 starts and has gotten away w/ allowing just 4 ER total his last two despite 17 hits in just 10 IP. This is a bad matchup for him even though he did throw 5 1/3 scoreless innings against the Jays back in August. 5* Toronto

9* Chicago (8:05 ET):  The Blackhawks begin the defense of their third Stanley Cup since 2010 on Opening Night against a Rangers club many figured they'd meet in the Finals, but didn't. The Blueshirts bring back the fifth oldest roster in the league for 2015-16 and while that still includes netminder Henrik Lundqvist, I see them taking a step back this season. I realize that they bring back six of their top seven point producers from last year and also led the league in goal differential. But gone is Cam Talbot behind Lundqvist and that's going to hurt them. Chicago made some cost-cutting moves, but essentially retained its key core of players. I can't see them losing on home ice on Opening Night. This is a good value on them to boot.

Including playoffs, Chicago won 33 of 52 home games last season. One would have figured that first number would have been at least a little bit higher given they averaged an astounding 36.5 shots on goal here at the "Madhouse on Madison."  Their shot percentage (goals/shots) at home finished at 8.1 percent, but was even lower in the regular season, so I wasn't surprised at all to see them improve in the postseason run.  Consider that the Rangers shot percentage on the road last year was 10.3%, which will likely be difficult to duplicate. Relying on the "30 and over crowd" seems risky. Lundqvist is 33 and that's the age at which goaltenders typically start slowing down.

It was a pair of 1-0 games that these teams played to last season, each winning on the other's ice. But interestingly Lundqvist didn't start either time for the Rangers. It was Talbot. Impressively, New York has won both trips to Chicago the L2 seasons, but as I've already made clear, I don't see that streak continuing here. I still trust Corey Crawford between the pipes for the 'Hawks and again emotions should be high as the team celebrates LY's Cup win.  That will carry them to the two points.  9* Chicago

10* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET):  Normally, a team as good as Pittsburgh being an underdog on the money line (at home!) would represent a tremendous value. After all, the Bucs were the dog at PNC Park only seven times ALL YEAR, though six of those came after the All-Star Break. The opposing pitchers in those game read like a "who's who" of Cy Young contenders and includes Max Scherzer, Madison Bumgarner, Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke.  However, one name is constant and occupies the other three spots on the list and that is Jake Arrieta, who will toe the rubber for the Cubs in Wednesday's Wild Card matchup and that is simply terrible news for the Pirates. In five starts against them this year, Arrieta allowed 1 ER or less every time (36 IP total) w/ the Cubs winning four times. He is the difference maker in this one.

Arrieta's numbers are so incredible that it's even a wonder that we're having a Cy Young discussion in the National League. Over the last two months, he has allowed 4 ER - total! The team has won each of his L13 starts dating back to July 30th. He's gone 11-0 in those games and in the last seven starts he's won them all w/ a preposterous 0.33 ERA and 0.491 WHIP! His last nine starts have seen him allow just four runs total, only two of them earned. Simply put, Arrieta put together the greatest second half to any season in recent memory. Perhaps most impressive of all is his 16-2 team start record on the road and that includes a 3-0 TSR here in Pittsburgh. He just faced the Pirates, albeit at home, on September 7th and held them to just a single over seven innings. Eleven days earlier he pitched here at PNC Park and allowed just two runs and six hits in 8 IP.

Interestingly, it was AJ Burnett that opposed Arrieta four times this season. Here, it will be Gerrit Cole, the Pirates' ace, facing him for the first time in 2015.  Cole was very good down the stretch himself, but his biggest flaw seems to be that he's not Arrieta. That being said, he did have a 3-1 TSR vs. the Cubs including 2-0 in September.  But in one of those, here at home, he allowed four runs in 6 1/3 IP.  The Cubs finished the regular season w/ baseball's best road record and that includes a 13-3 mark as a favorite of -125 to -150, most of those coming w/ Arrieta on the hill. They also closed the regular season on an eight-game win streak.  Arrieta is more than a hair better than Cole and thus I give the edge to the visitors. 10* Chi Cubs

8* Over Cubs/Pirates (8:05 ET): With two starting pitchers of this caliber (Arrieta vs. Cole) it is difficult to make a case for many runs being scored, so this analysis may be a little "short and sweet."  I certainly don't need to go over the exploits of either Jake Arrieta or Gerrit Cole here (I did in my side analysis though!) as it would almost come across as counterproductive. What I'm banking on here is the margin for error being so small. Only a couple swings of the bat could send this game Over the (very) low 5.5 run total.  If you want to talk value, there was never a 5.5 run total for an Arrieta start in the regular season. The same holds true for Cole.  Take the Over.

Further driving home the value we're getting here is the fact that as remarkable as Arrieta's season was, only three times was the total even 6.0.  The Over went 2-1 in those games w/ the lone Under coming in a game where the Cubs were shut out 5-0.  The Under is 6-0-1 his L7 starts overall, but was set at 7 runs or higher every time.  It's the same story for Cole, who saw a total of 6.5 or lower only eight times and the Over was 5-3 in those games.  For the record, the home plate umpire for this matchup is Jeff Nelson. While the O/U is 14-14 with him behind the plate, the average total runs scored per game is 8.8.  By my tally, there were 46 times the Cubs scored six runs by themselves in a game this year, 10 of those coming since September 1st.  The Pirates scored six or more runs themselves 12 times since Sept 1 and also 46 times for the season. Obviously, neither club figures to send this one Over by themselves, but the point of that exercise was to illustrate just how slim that margin for error is.  8* Over Cubs/Pirates

10* NY Yankees (8:05 ET):  I know that we're supposed to be placing a premium on elite starting pitching this time of year. But even w/ Dallas Keuchel toeing the rubber, I'm having a hard time making the case for the Astros here. They're a young team w/ a lineup that is largely "feast or famine" (2nd in both home runs and strikeouts) and historically that does not play well in the postseason. Keuchel himself does not have history on his side here as he's working on three days rest. Then, there is the matter of Houston's terrible 33-48 road record, which is not just the worst among playoff teams, but the worst among ALL American League teams! Yankees' starter Masahiro Tanaka is far from "chopped liver" himself and I see this one coming down to the bullpens (where NY has the edge). I also give the home team a big edge in the dugout w/ Joe Girardi.

Keuchel had a tremendous regular season that included 16 scoreless innings against this Yankees lineup (16-1 KW ratio). But this will also be his first ever postseason start and as I said earlier, it comes on just three days rest. History is unkind to pitchers working on such short rest, such as Clayton Kershaw last year. Since 1995, pitchers going on three days rest have a 4.66 ERA in the postseason, allowing an average of 5.13 runs per start. Keuchel also shares in his team's road woes as his ERA is over two full points higher than it is at home and opponents are batting .253 against him on the road compared to .187 at home. He has roughly half as many strikeouts while allowing three times as many home runs in nearly the same number of starts, road vs. home.  His TSR is just 7-8 away from Minute Maid Park and while a 21-5 win at Arizona last Friday (I was on him!) looks great, Keuchel finished w/ just 3 K's in 6 IP. 

As I said earlier, Tanaka is not "chopped liver." In fact, he has a better WHIP than Keuchel this season (0.994 vs. 1.017).  That WHIP has been even better over his L3 starts (0.833) even though his TSR is just 1-2. Last time out, he was unlucky to give up four runs off only five hits vs. Boston. He'd allowed just 3 ER in 21 IP w/ a 21-1 KW ratio in his three starts previous to that.  While there are some concerns w/ this Yankees offense (3.3 rpg L7), they ranked 2nd in all of MLB in runs scored and I trust them more than the Astros' hitters. Both teams are below .500 since Sept 1, but I lean on the homefield advantage and the better bullpen here.  10* NY Yankees

10* Over Fever/Lynx (8:05 ET):  Game 1 of the WNBA Finals went even better than I anticipated as underdog Indiana (+6) didn't even need the points, taking the game outright 75-69.  I said coming in that I though the Fever were the better team here and they showed it Sunday, taking the game despite shooting only 36 percent overall from the floor. The key, and this has been the case all season, was that Indiana was still able to maintain its season average of 33% (5 for 15) from behind the three-point arc.  Given that I liked the Fever in Game 1 and they're in a similar price range, it would stand to reason that I'd come back w/ them here. But Minnesota is 19-3 SU all-time at home in the playoffs and likely to come back strong. Therefore, let's turn to the total, which I feel is too low.  Take the Over.

Game 1 did stay Under (by three points) and it was the third straight Under for the Fever overall. Minnesota has also gone Under in three straight and is surprisingly 25-15 Under in all games this season. But it seems reasonable to expect the Lynx to be better here at the offensive end compared to Game 1 when they missed eight of 23 free throw attempts.  They also missed 8 of 10 three-pointers, a well below average performance. Remember that Indiana was just average from behind the arc themselves. So, tonight should feature better three-point shooting and likely better shooting overall. Game 1 staying Under was pretty much solidified w/ the first quarter ending in a 10-10 tie. That's very low scoring and can likely be "blamed" on the long layoff between series.

Indiana is 22-19 Over for the season and this is pretty low total for them.  They average 77.6 points per game while allowing 75.4.  The lowest total for any Fever game this season was 145 points.  Sunday actually marked their worst overall shooting game of these playoffs.  They are 10-6 Over this season when playing w/ exactly one day of rest.  As for Minnesota, they may be allowing only 69 PPG this year at home, but Game 1 marked the second time in the playoffs they allowed at least 75 pts (in three chances). Offensively, the duo of Seimone Augustus & Lindsay Whalen almost certainly HAVE to improve upon their 13 combined points from Game 1 that came on just 14 attempts. 10* Over Fever/Lynx

8* Under Argos/Redblacks (7:35 ET): It's a bad break for Toronto as this game was originally set to take place at Rogers Centre, but had to be moved to Ottawa due to a conflict w/ the MLB Playoffs.  This will actually be the first of two games the Argonauts play in Week 16 as they're in Montreal Monday. The game tonight is rife w/ future implications as the two teams involved are very likely to match up in the playoffs and who wins here could go a long way in determining home field advantage for that potential showdown. This is also the third time since late August that the two Eastern Division rivals will have played. Toronto won both times previously w/ the Over cashing twice as well. But tonight, I expect a different story w/ the stakes higher and an unusual circumstance. Take the Under.

The Redblacks have gone Over in each of their last three games, including a 35-26 home loss to the Argos two weeks ago. They rebounded last week by blowing out Montreal, 39-17 as 2.5-pt favorites, in another important division contest. In that win, the offense rolled up a shocking 580 total yds of offense w/ QB Henry Burris setting a CFL record with 45 completions (for 510 yards). Obviously, a decrease in production should be expected here. Burris is completing 70 percent of his pass attempts for the season, but for only an average of 307 YPG. Overall, the offense is averaging 24.5 PPG for the season, but has been better than that five straight weeks. Typically, the Ottawa defense comes to play here at home where they allow just 21.9 PPG.

Toronto has not played since defeating the Redblacks two weeks ago. They've gone Over in four of their previous five games, but note that they had scored just 27 pts total in two road games prior to winning here on September 26th.  The short week won't do the Ottawa offense any favors (they last played Thursday).  Because the previous two matchups both went Over, we're getting the highest total to date for a Toronto-Ottawa matchup here, thus we should take advantage. There's now a greater sense of familiarity between the two sides + I'm not sure how much Ottawa will have in the tank offensive after playing just five days ago. 8* Under Argos/Redblacks

8* Detroit (8:30 ET):  If the Seahawks win this game & they likely will, I'm still not sure that proves "they're back" & all is well in the Pacific Northwest.  What it would mean is B2B wins over Chicago and Detroit, a pair of opponents that would then be a collective 1-7 straight up. Last week vs. the Bears, Seattle's first home game of the season, resulted in a 26-0 final but if you take away two non-offensive touchdowns, then the offensive shortcomings are still apparent.  Throw in the fact that they will be w/o bell cow RB Marshawn Lynch tonight and facing a desperate Lions team (0-3 SU/ATS), I just wouldn't want to be caught laying double digits in this one. Take the points.

After three games, it quite clear that Detroit is going to regress this season. A playoff team a year ago, the loss of Ndamukong Suh on defense coupled w/ questionable offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, is not a good combo.  They've actually been outgained in every game so far. Were it not for two non-offensive TD's themselves in Week 1, they wouldn't have even scored 20 pts in any game this year.  But there's certainly offensive talent on this team: Matt Stafford, Ameer Abdullah, Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. I think TE Eric Ebron is capable of having a big game here as well. Something to keep in mind is that the Lions are now the league's only winless team. I took both Chicago and New Orleans yday and they won. Detroit probably won't win SU here, but only Indianapolis is 0-4 ATS, so the law of averages is somewhat on their side.

We're all aware of the Seahawks' tremendous homefield advantage and with this being a night game, it's only stronger. But this Seattle team is simply not as strong as past editions.  They were actually booed in the first half LW vs. the Bears. The offensive line, now w/o Max Unger (traded for Jimmy Graham), is a major liability. QB Russell Wilson has been pressured more than only four other quarterbacks and as a result he's averaging just 5.68 yards per pass attempt (27th in the league).  This is likely to be a low-scoring affair Monday night and at the very least, the "back door" will be open for the Lions to "steal" the cover. 8* Detroit

10* New Orleans (8:30 ET):  Drew Brees is back for the Saints and as a result, I see the team breaking through w/ its first victory of 2015 Sunday night.  Last week, without him, they covered for me at 3-0 Carolina, even jumping out to an early 10-0 lead as 9.5-point pups. That was w/ journeyman Luke McCown under center against a pretty good Panthers' defense. They had more first downs than Carolina (27-24) for the game. Here, they draw a Dallas team that from an offensive talent perspective is now nowhere near where they were a season ago when they beat New Orleans by 21 (at home). QB Tony Romo and WR Dez Bryant are both injured and of course they let DeMarco Murray walk in the offseason. With Brees back, the home team should roll. Lay the points.

What ever happened to the Saints' old "home magic?"  Once upon a time, they were unbeatable at the Mercedes Benz Superdome, but shockingly dropped their final five home games of 2014 and then were beaten outright here by the Bucs (as 10-pt chalk) back in Week 2 (I was on Tampa Bay).  This is a night game and that's a situation this team excelled in for years.   Off B2B losses, the Saints are 4-1 ATS.  Brees as bad as he looked in Week 2, absolutely gives the team its best chance to win. While New Orleans' previous home field edge is due to correct itself, Dallas too is "due" to start regressing on the road. They've won nine straight regular season games on the road.  That seems like a streak that can't be continued. It seems shocking that w/ Brees back, the Saints would only be laying the standard number for being a home team.

Brandon Weeden looked decent for a half last week vs. Atlanta, but the fact remains he has now lost nine consecutive starts and has a negative TD-INT ratio for his career.  His yards per pass attempt was extraordinarily low last week.  The Cowboys ' outstanding offensive line can only do so much w/ a lack of talent at the skill positions.  The defense is also bad as it gave up 453 total yards last week. They couldn't stop the Falcons at all in the second half, and their last visit here to the Superdome (two years ago) saw them give up a NFL record 40 first downs. 10* New Orleans

8* St. Louis (4:25 ET):  This may be the riskiest play of the three, considering how hot Arizona has been to start the season. But let's break down this 3-0 start down, shall we?  The Cardinals have beaten the Saints, Bears and 49ers, none of whom are going to be playoff teams and the latter pair might be the two worst teams in the entire NFC.  The Rams, a confusing team that's a fringe playoff contender at best, are a significant step up in class from that aforementioned trio, even though they are coming off a meager six-point effort at home against the Steelers. Despite already having beaten Seattle, they are being placed into the same price range here as the 49ers were last week despite being a significantly better team.  Take the points.

Non-offensive touchdowns have been a big part of the Cardinals' repertoire to this point as they have four the past two games, three of them coming from the defense and that doesn't even include the safety that they recorded last week vs. the 49ers.  That game was essentially "over before it started" as Colin Kaepernick was intercepted on B2B drives, both of them returned for TD's.  Getting out to that kind of lead is obviously huge for a team as it allows them to dictate pace.  The week prior saw Arizona return the opening kickoff for a touchdown. I envision this game being more of a slugfest where such opportunities are not present for the Cardinals.  To this point, the offensive line has kept Carson Palmer relatively clean, but he has not yet had to face a defensive front the caliber of what St. Louis brings to the table.  Not that I would ever hope for an injury, but it is certainly worth pointing out that it was the Rams who ended Palmer's 2014 season. We also saw what happened to Ben Roethlisberger last week. Just saying.

Now we'll obviously need the Rams offense to get something going after scoring only 16 points total the past two weeks.  Despite many signs to the contrary, I believe they will. But what this play really boils down to is the fact Arizona is due to start regressing, sooner rather than later. They have now covered over two-thirds of their games since the start of last season. That's very hard to do. Also, Palmer has won eight consecutive starts. With the Cardinals bandwagon finally attracting real support, it is time to fade them. 8* St. Louis

8* Cleveland (3:10 ET):  At home, I'll take the Indians in the regular season finale.  It's been a disappointing season, but a win here would give them a winning record at least. That's something to play for. The Tribe has also dominated Boston so far in the series, taking both games easily, 8-2 and 2-0.  Yesterday's victory bodes well here as Boston is a woeful 1-8 this year after getting shut out.  In this finale, Cleveland has a major starting pitching edge w/ Danny Salazar going up against Rick Porcello.  Quietly, the Indians are 22-15 since August 25th, which is the third best record in the entire American League during that time.

Salazar is part of an excellent starting rotation that leads the AL in strikeouts.  He, along w/ teammates Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, all rank in the top eight in K's.  For the year, Salazar has a 189-52 KW ratio and opponents are batting just .227 off him.  Poor run support doomed him in his L2 starts, both on the road, but here at Progressive Field the team has won four of the last five times w/ him on the mound.   He has posted a sterling 1.75 ERA during that stretch and allowed 2 ER or less every turn.  Back in Boston on August 17th, he allowed just one run on four hits in seven innings in an 8-2 Cleveland win, their lone victory in that series. 

Porcello has a 5.82 ERA and 1.415 WHIP in 14 road starts this year.  He's allowed at least three runs in six consecutive starts.  It's tough to make any kind of case for Boston here as they have lost three straight to clinch a losing record for the season.  They're only 35-45 on the road, including 5-10 as a dog in the +125 to +150 price range.  The offense has done very little in this series w/ just eight total hits.  Look for the home team to end the season on a positive note.  8* Cleveland

8* Indiana (3:05 ET):  The Fever treated me well in a pair of Game 3's, winning at both Chicago and then New York as underdogs. I continue to maintain that they're a solid value when taking the points and in fact I have them rated higher than top seeded Minnesota, making them once again a great value play here for Game 1 of the WNBA Finals.  Note that Indiana is the only Eastern Conference team to win a WNBA playoff game since 2008, back when they beat the Lynx and won the title back in 2012! They were swept in the regular season by the Lynx, but are playing much better now.  Meanwhile, Minnesota was very fortunate to sweep its series w/ Phoenix (bad call in Gm 2) and two of its four playoff wins were by 2 pts or less.

Here at home, Minnesota has been impressive this year. They're 16-4 SU and outscoring teams by 8.3 points per game.  When they hosted the Fever during the regular season, they won by 16.  But overall, they're just 11-9 ATS as a home favorite and 18-21 ATS overall.  Interestingly, the extended time off between series may be a detriment and not a help as playing w/ two or more days rest, the Lynx are 6-13 ATS this year.   Again, Indiana has two big road wins in these playoffs, winning by double digits at both Chicago and New York - with their season on the line.

A big key for the Fever in this series will be their three-point shooting.  During the regular season, they were the top team in the league from behind the arc at 182 makes and 36 percent.  In the playoffs, they've continued to lead in that department, averaging 5.2 per game.  Overall, this team is 4-1-1 ATS in the playoffs w/ just one loss by more than five points.  I give Indiana an excellent shot at pulling the outright upset here, but take the points.   8* Indiana

10* Chicago (1:00 ET):  Just how far have the Bears fallen in the public's eyes? Well, this week, they come in as a home underdog .... to the Raiders!? Yes, it's been a very ugly start in the Windy City, though I should point out that the team played Green Bay tough here at home in Week 1 and then was trading touchdowns with Arizona before QB Jay Cutler was lost to an injury. Since then, they've been outscored 46-3 by the Cards and Seahawks w/ Jimmy Clausen in at quarterback. That's bad and the result was a mid-week "fire sale"as the team dumped a bunch of veteran players in exchange for future draft picks.  That's never a good sign when it's only Week 4, but I'm calling for the Bears to "circle the wagons" this week.  Take the points.

Prior to last week's 27-20 win over the lowly Browns, Oakland had lost its previous 11 road games and 19 of the last 20. It was a RARE win in the Eastern Time Zone for the Silver and Black. Now, they're actually being favored on the road for the first time since 2012 and favored for the first time period since 2013! What happened the last time they were favored on the road you ask? They lost to Miami outright by 22 points. While 1st year HC Jack Del Rio does have the team trending in a positive direction w/ some decent, young talent on hand, this is a classic case of "cart before the horse" as one road win should not equate to being favored on the road the following week. After all, the Raiders have not won B2B road games since 2011, the same season they last produced a three-game win streak of any kind.

Yes, the Bears punted after every possession last week and were shut out. But that was in Seattle against one of the better defenses in the league.  When Clausen first appeared, it was against Arizona, who also has one of the league's better defenses.  Oakland currently ranks last in the league in yards per game allowed at 414.7!  It would obviously be great if Cutler could get back on the field, but if he does not, then I expect Clausen to have one of his better days as a pro. The Bears are just 7-11 SU/4-13-1 ATS the L3 years at home, including 0-5 SU/ATS as a dog of three points or less, so I'd say the market is due to "correct itself" a little bit here.  10* Chicago

10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): The last time the Bucs won a home game was 2013.  Carolina is 3-0, but so far they've beaten Jacksonville, Houston and New Orleans (w/o Drew Brees). My thinking is that the Panthers are ripe to be upset here as Tampa Bay wasn't necessarily beaten as badly as the scores & stats may say last week in Houston.  Plus, Carolina failed to even cover against the Brees-less Saints last week at home while the Bucs actually went to New Orleans and beat the Saints outright (I had them!) w/ Brees in the lineup. For a team to lose 10 games in a row at home (Bucs' current streak) is pretty rare and Tampa Bay comes in with quadruple revenge after being swept by the Panthers each of the last two seasons. Can you say "just due?" Take the points.

While Houston had twice as many first downs as Tampa Bay last week, it was the Bucs that actually led at the half (9-7) and were in not for three missed field goals and an extra point, things could have turned out a lot differently. Obviously, those 10 points that were "left on the table" wee the difference in the ballgame.  For all the criticism he's taken thus far, I like how Jameis Winston wasn't afraid to throw the ball downfield against the Texans. He completed 53 percent of his pass attempts that traveled at least 15 yards w/ one INT (which comes w/ the territory). Honestly, Winston may be the best QB the Panthers have faced thus far, which speaks to just how phony their record really is. Their defense is w/o Charles Johnson, who went on IR with a hamstring injury. That should make life easier for Winston and company.

Carolina's last two wins were both at home and by seven points or less against bad teams. Rarely, do they find themselves in the road favorite role. They did in Week 1 against Jacksonville, but that was just the second time it's happened in three seasons. Cam Newton is often asked to carry the load on offense and I would argue that Winston actually has much better talent surrounding him at the skill positions.  The Bucs' offensive line also didn't give up a sack last week, even facing JJ Watt. The trouble came on third down where the team went just 1 for 12, but third down efficiency can often be volatile on a week-to-week basis.  I do not believe that Carolina will be able to run the ball as effectively as Houston did on the Bucs a week ago.  Bottom line is that this is a huge, division home game for the Bucs while at 3-0 w/ a bye on deck, Carolina is due for a letdown.  10* Tampa Bay

8* Washington (1:00 ET):  I played against the Redskins (and won!) in Week 3, but off a long break (they played last Thursday) and back at home, I see them covering the spread against an Eagles team that I successfully played on in Week 3.  But, if I'm being honest, that was a pretty shaky win by Philly as they were shutout in the second half by the Jets and outagined for the game 323-231.  A Darren Sproles punt return and a +3 edge in turnovers were the keys in that outright win as road dogs, but Chip Kelly's team still seems to be pretty shaky and the idea of them laying points on the road, in a divisional matchup, doesn't seem right. Washington, believe it or not, has actually outgained all three opponents this year. Take the points.

When you think Chip Kelly, you think offense, but after finishing w/ only the slightest of edges in total yards (399-395) in a Week 1 loss to the Falcons, this supposed up-tempo attack has been stuck in quicksand, failing to gain even 250 total yards in either of the last two contests.  I've never been a big Sam Bradford fan and so far he's completing less than 38 percent of his passes on third down despite a measly 3.48 yards per attempt. This despite not even being blitzed all that much.  Overall, he completed just 50 percent of his passes for only 118 yards last week vs. the Jets. Surprisingly, without DeMarco Murray, the run game was successful against the Jets. But taken as a whole, this group has to be considered a major disappointment, considering the dollars involved. For a second straight week, Murray remains questionable and even if he did play, I don't think he'd be all that effective.

With the potential for terrible weather and two offenses that have generally lacked explosiveness, taking points here simply seems like it's the way to go. Ironically, I believe it will be the unheralded Washington run game that will be the difference in this one. The Eagles' defense is #1 against the run in terms of yards per carry allowed (3.1), but at the same time has allowed at least 250 yards passing in every game. I think the Redskins will be able to establish the run here after only 20 attempts on the ground (for 88 yards) last week, which was due to falling behind the Giants early. In the first two games, the 'Skins ran it 37 times apiece for 161 and 182 yards respectively.  Last year against the Eagles, Kirk Cousins set career highs in both passing yards (427) and TD's (3) vs. this Eagles defense.  8* Washington

8* Kansas City (1:00 ET): The Chiefs looked pretty bad Monday night, despite a virtual "mini-bye" as they played Thursday of the previous week. But playing in Lambeau Field can make any team not named "the Packers" look pretty bad and in retrospect I made a very bad call not respecting Green Bay's homefield advantage more. Now KC is really desperate at 1-2 having to visit Cincinnati. While the Bengals are one of seven teams to still be unbeaten, two of the games have been close and their one blowout (over Oakland) saw them benefit from a starting QB having to leave the game due to injury. While Cincy has been consistently good the L5 years w/ Andy Dalton at quarterback, they've also won a number of these close games (which goes AGAINST the Dalton playoff narrative). I think this one is due to go "the other way" for them.  Take the points.  

The Chiefs defense, which looked really great the first two games, clearly had no answer for Aaron Rodgers last week. Dalton is simply not that same caliber signal caller.  Remember that Kansas City was also less than a minute and a horrific breakdown away from being 2-0.   They should have beaten Peyton Manning and Denver (allowed less than 300 total yds) even w/ a poor turnover margin. This is not a team built to trade points w/ the likes of the Packers, but this week's matchup should be more to Andy Reid's liking. That being said, the offense has averaged 26.3 points per game so far, even though much of last week's production came in "garbage time." The Bengals defense won't blitz as much as the Packers did, which should allow Smith time to throw and (hopefully) get the ball downfield. 

This spot just reeks of a classic "sandwich spot" for Cincinnati as they are off the big division win over Baltimore and have a much bigger home game looming, vs. Seattle.  While they've been a strong home team in recent seasons, this will also be the most points they've been asked to lay in a game this season. I am not sold on the Bengals being as good as they've looked through three games. They've played a much easier schedule than has Kansas City, whose sense of desperation should be the difference in this one.  8* Kansas City

10* Clemson (8:00 ET):  As I read more and more about this game, I almost feel as if I'm "on an island" here liking the home team that "just" has to win straight up. Many have compared this matchup to Notre Dame's venture into Norman, Oklahoma a few years ago, but what those people are forgetting is that the Fighting Irish were 12-point underdogs going into that game (the season they made it to the BCS Championship Game) and possibly also that this Irish team has already lost six starters (including QB Malik Zaire) before we even got to October! With Florida State's projected decline, Clemson is now the ACC's lone realistic shot at the College Football Playoff (no offense, NC State!) and I expect Dabo Swinney to have his team ready Saturday night in Death Valley. 

Clemson has a nice edge coming into this matchup in that they haven't played in 15 days, since besting Louisville on the road in a Thursday night game, 20-17.  I admit that I was on L'ville there, but it was the Tigers finishing w/ a convincing 401-272 edge in total yards only to be "backdoored" by a 4th quarter kick return by the Cardinals. During the 15 days that Clemson will have been off, Notre Dame has played twice. First they delivered an impressive win at home vs. Georgia Tech, where I was on them. Then last week there was no letdown whatsoever as they rolled UMass, 62-27 as 28.5-point favorites. Again, after surpassing the oddsmakers expectations two weeks in a row, I think people are forgetting about just how much personnel Brian Kelly has lost here. Three weeks ago, the Irish barely got by a bad Virginia team on the road and the program is just 2-10 SU its last 12 road games against Top 25 foes.

Since Dabo Swinney took over here at Clemson, the Tigers are 37-5 SU at home. That includes 26-2 the last four seasons. Florida State is the only other team to win here the last two seasons and that squad (led by Jameis Winston) went on to win the National Championship. Notre Dame, while good, isn't at that level. The biggest concern for Swinney coming into this year was a defense that returned only three starters, but it appears as if the dropoff will be minimal as they've allowed just 37 pts through three games and are tied for 7th nationally in yards per play (3.9). Offensively, Clemson is loaded at the skill positions and I give them a clear edge at QB w/ DeShaun Watson. Swinney has five career wins against Top 10 teams, all as the lower ranked squad.  10* Clemson

10* North Texas (7:00 ET):  The Mean Green really let us down two weeks ago at home against Rice, but here they are again as the top call for the week.  Now, Dan McCarney's team really did get bludgeoned last week at Iowa, losing 62-16 (as 25-pt dogs) in a spot where some (not me) thought they could possibly stay within the number against a Hawkeyes team possibly peaking ahead to the Big 10 opener at Wisconsin.  That obviously didn't happen and now we find UNT getting a monster number at Southern Miss, who just last year came into this matchup as decided (nine-point) underdogs.  Yes, the Golden Eagles won that game outright, 30-20 in Denton, but even accounting for the change in home field, the swing in the spread is just far too great here.  Take the points.

Southern Miss is a program actually rich in tradition and of course gave us Brett Favre.  From 1993 to 2011, they didn't have a single losing season. But then the bottom dropped out after Larry Fedora bolted for the greener pastures of North Carolina and the previous three seasons saw the Golden Eagles go a combine 4-32 straight up! Now they are 2-2 SU this year with the losses to Mississippi State and Nebraska (last week), both of whom they played tough. But for a team that's been favored only three times (0-2-1 ATS) against FBS foes the last two seasons, laying double digits seems "a bit rich," no? After a big fourth quarter rally last week in Lincoln to finish within one score of Nebraska, I believe it to be fair to question just what USM might have left in the tank here. The defense gave up over 600 total yards last week and note the week previous allowed Texas State to score 50 points in just a six-point victory.

Thus, North Texas should have its best offensive game of the season Saturday.  While 0-3 ATS w/ every loss coming by at least two touchdowns, this could end up being one of their weakest opponents of the season, save for next week's home date w/ Portland State (who did beat Washington State though!) and UTSA.  Wins will probably be few and far between for the Mean Green this season, so anything short of an all-out effort here could lead to a disastrous season. I'm not saying they'll win, but the points are generous in this Conference USA matchup.  10* North Texas

10* Toronto (6:10 ET):  Normally, when a team has revenge for a prior sweep (like Tampa Bay does here), I would consider taking them. But the Rays, who have now lost five in a row to the Blue Jays, are simply playing out the string at this point. Toronto has home field advantage (throughout the playoffs on its mind) and enters the day tied w/ Kansas City for the top spot in the American League.  A win today coupled w/ a Royals loss would clinch homefield for them as they own the tiebreaker due to winning the season series vs. KC. Thus, all the motivational edges lie w/ the road team in this one and even w/o motivation, Toronto simply is the much better team.  Excellent price here.

Any hope that starter Chris Archer might give Rays fans in this one went away w/ his last performance.  These Blue Jays knocked him around for nine runs in just 3 2/3 innings last Saturday. Previously, Archer had accounted very well for himself against this lineup, but eventually the Jays' offense is going to get to you. Toronto comes in averaging an astounding 5.5 runs per game and they have now scored 130 more runs (in 160 games) than the second highest scoring offense in baseball (Yankees). With Troy Tulowitzki back in the lineup, they become all the more potent. Since acquiring him from Colorado, the team has gone a ridiculous 31-8 w/ him in the lineup.  Archer is winless over his L5 starts overall, posting a 6.58 ERA. The team is just 17-16 w/ him on the mound to begin with.

We all know that the Blue Jays have the offense, but their pitching has come around as well. Tonight's starter, Marco Estrada, has solidified himself as part of the postseason rotation by going 6-2 w/ a 2.63 ERA and 0.92 WHIP his last nine outings. Those numbers get even better over his L3 starts (2.05 ERA/0.864 WHIP) and he allowed just four hits (in 7 1/3 IP) his last time out. The last time Estrada faced Tampa Bay, he was up against Archer and outpitched him, delivering eight scoreless innings of three-hit ball.  In fact, he's working on a 21+ inning scoreless streak against the Rays and nearly went the distance (8 2/3 IP) in his one start here at Tropicana Field this season.  10* Toronto

10* Old Dominion (3:30 ET):  With Alabama likely to close as a small underdog this week at Georgia, that leaves Marshall as the current place holder for most consecutive games being favored at 29.  But this Thundering Herd team is not as strong as past editions and I see that streak coming to an end at some point this season, most likely the regular season finale at Western Kentucky.  Already, the Herd have lost once this year, 21-10 at Ohio, and were lucky not to lose to another MAC school last week as Kent State took them to double overtime. Marshall was outgained significantly in the contest, 436-277, and I just do not like them laying this big of a number against an Old Dominion team that will come in and give its best effort. Take the points.

Now, since the start of last season, perhaps no team has been worse at covering spreads that ODU.  The Monarchs are 4-12 ATS during that time, including 0-4 ATS this year, after losing 49-0 last week at home to Appalachian State (who was coming off a bye).  That kind of loss is likely to cause linesmakers to panic and that's what we have here as Old Dominion is now taking more points here than they were two weeks ago vs. NC State, a team from a Power 5 Conference. I actually played AGAINST ODU in their opener, a 38-34 win over Eastern Michigan, that was their first of two games w/ 400+ yards of offense. Coming into 2015, HC Bobby Wilder knew that replacing QB Taylor Heinicke would be difficult and it has, but I think last week was an aberration. 

Like ODU, Marshall is having to replace its all-time passing leader (Rakeem Cato) and the task has proven difficult.  Michael Birdsong is injured and in his place, freshman Chase Litton has simply not been effective as LW vs. Kent State he completed only 14 of 36 pass attempts w/ two interceptions.  Complicating matters further on offense is that RB Devon Johnson (1790 yards rushing last season) is reportedly dealing w/ a back injury. While HC Doc Holliday refuted that report, Johnson was clearly limited last week. Remember that Marshall's 41-31 over Purdue is misleading in the sense they had two pick six's, one in the closing seconds to give them the cover there. The weather is supposed to be pretty lousy Saturday afternoon in Huntington and that could result in a lower scoring game than expected, which is to the benefit of the dog.  10* Old Dominion

8* Georgia Tech (3:30 ET): My, oh my, how far has Georgia Tech's stock fallen in just two weeks. The Yellow Jackets, coming off an impressive 11-3 SU campaign in 2014, were being pegged by some as a darkhorse National Title contender this season. But back to back losses (at Notre Dame & Duke) have changed all that in a hurry. Truth be told, I never bought this team as a legit title contender, which is why I went against them in South Bend two weeks ago. Last week was a bit of a surprise, but note they actually did outgain Duke 316-289 in defeat.  The Jackets now return back to Atlanta looking to avoid a third straight loss and have been bet all the way down to a touchdown favorite over a North Carolina team they've beaten 14 of the last 17 times they've played.  I think this is a solid value on the home side.

I haven't dealt w/ UNC since they were handed a season opening loss in Charlotte by South Carolina.  I was on the Gamecocks in that one and since that time it's been three straight easy wins for the Tar Heels against less than stellar competition. There was a 48-14 win (in Chapel Hill) over Illinois, but the Illini were still dealing w/ a surprise coaching change. Last week saw UNC fall behind Delaware early and they led only 13-7 at the half.  Despite never once punting in the game, the Tar Heels led only 20-14 late in the third quarter and there was a change at QB that led to the blowout.  The defense is certainly improved in 2015, but gave up 279 yards rushing to a FCS opponent last week.  That's an ominous sign when getting set to face Georgia Tech's triple option attack which gashed the Tar Heels for 376 yards in last year's meeting, a wild 48-43 win for UNC that I'm sure hasn't been forgotten by Paul Johnson & his staff, who will be out for revenge.

Prior to last season, Georgia Tech had beaten North Carolina five straight times - by an average of 11 PPG. This is a rivalry that's been dominated by the home team (won 9 of L12 meetings) and the Tar Heels have lost eight straight times here in Bobby Dodd Stadium. Both squads have been surprisingly disappointing on the offensive side of the ball, but given the rushing numbers listed above, I feel it's Ga Tech that's more likely to get back on track Saturday. They rolled up over 600 yds total against UNC last year. Their usually impressive rushing numbers were way down the L2 weeks because they faced great defenses.  Meanwhile, all reports say it will still be Marquise Williams starting at QB for the Tar Heels even though it was backup Mitch Trubisky that came in and threw four TD passes against Delaware. Though they failed to avenge one of last year's three losses last week, look for Georgia Tech to gain revenge against another Tobacco Road rival this week and cover the spread to boot.  8* Georgia Tech

8* Under Texas Tech/Baylor (3:30 ET):  This total has been the talk of College Football this past week. While the two teams certainly are capable of sending this one Over, I think that the expectation has created some significant value on the Under. The previous high for a College Football total was set back in 2012 when Baylor took on a high-flying Oklahoma State outfit. The number there was 88 and the final score only 43-31 (in favor of the Pokes).  Of the 13 games in NCAAF history where the total was 80+, the two teams here have combined to be involved in eight of them. The last time Baylor saw an 80-point total, they again lost (last year at West Virginia) w/ the game staying Under. Texas Tech did go Over an 83.5-pt total last week, in a wild 55-52 loss to TCU. But I don't think this game will be as close and the effect there will be less scoring late. Take the Under.

Even though they lead the nation w/ 64 points per game, a number which is due to come down, Baylor would have seen two of their three games this year stay Under this total.  They just hung 70 on Rice last week and rolled up over 800 yards of total offense!  But they allowed only 17.  I think that the Bears' defense is going to be key in this matchup. It's a much better stop unit that what the Red Raiders faced last week against TCU, who is already down an incredible eight starters on that side of the ball! Granted, it's against less than stellar competition, but Baylor is allowing just 317 yards per game. The really good sign, however, is that they've held all three opponents to well below their respective season averages. 

I think you also have to question what Texas Tech "has left" after losing such a heartbreaker last week at home. The Baylor offense will almost certainly "get theirs," but I can't see the Red Raiders trading points w/ them as they did LW vs. TCU.  Last year, in Lubbock, these two combined for 94 points in a wild, back and forth affair, similar to Texas Tech's game last week. Because I don't anticipate this game being nearly as close, I look for less scoring at the end of the game. Though I readily admit that the teams involved are capable, too many things have to "break right" for the Over to hit here.  8* Under Texas Tech/Baylor

8* Louisville (12:30 ET):  October is the month where the number of unbeatens (we still have 29!) across the country will drop dramatically and in all due respect North Carolina State is probably one of the shakier teams (in the Power 5 Conferences) that still has a zero in the loss column. The Wolfpack really haven't played anyone of consequence, defeating Troy, Eastern Kentucky, Old Dominion and South Alabama all by an average of 34.3 points per game. Now comes the ACC portion of the schedule and it begins w/ a Louisville team that certainly didn't figure to be coming in at 1-3 straight up. Despite that disappointing record, Bobby Petrino's team has treated me well against the spread, covering in losses to Auburn and Clemson. Take the points here, but I am anticipating an outright win.

All three of L'ville's losses have come by seven points or less. While a backdoor cover on a neutral field vs. Auburn looks less and less impressive w/ each passing week, note the Cardinals did outgain the Tigers in that game, 405-327. Houston is the opposite of Auburn and probably better than they were given credit for. Then, holding Clemson to only 20 points in a Thursday night home loss isn't that bad. Finally, Petrino and company got back on track last week w/ an easy 45-3 win and cover against FCS Samford. Remember that this is a team that brought only nine starters back from last season, so early season struggles should have been expected, especially against such a tough slate. The biggest issue was at QB, but after last week the job is now Lamar Jackson's as the freshman threw for 212 yards and RAN for 184 more. Jackson makes the Cardinals offense far more dynamic. 

Remember that last year Louisville beat NC State 30-18. They didn't cover, but that was because they were 18-pt favorites! I don't think things have swung that much in the Wolfpack's favor in one year's time. I took the fact that early money came in on the dog as being a positive sign. So too is that L'ville is 4-2 ATS the L6 times taking points (2-0 this year). They're also on a 9-2 SU/8-3 ATS run in road games. Don't discount turnovers either; the Cardinals have intercepted a pass in 17 straight games, which is the longest such streak in the country right now.  NC State has lost 13 of its last 16 conference games and is 0-6 in the month of October the L2 years.  8* Louisville

8* Houston (9:40 ET):  With yesterday's results, there's now only one playoff spot left to claim in the American League and currently it would belong to the Astros, who have a tenuous one-game lead over both the Angels and Twins for the final Wild Card. The 'Stros have been slumping badly down the stretch, but have seemingly been able to turn it around over the last week, winning four of their last five. Fortunately, for their biggest game of the year, they send their best pitcher to the mound and that's Dallas Keuchel, who since August 1st has had only one non-quality start in 11 tries. Look for him to lead his team to victory tonight, in a great spot for he and the team, as Arizona is coming off a tough, come from behind win last night. Houston had Thursday off.

I had the D'backs Thursday night and they rewarded me by coming back from an early deficit to defeat Colorado, 8-6.  A four-run seventh inning was started by an inside the park home run of all things and Arizona finished off the sweep of one of the worst teams in all of baseball. While the D'backs have won four straight and still have a shot at finishing .500 (would need a sweep this weekend), obviously I don't like their chances as they still have a losing record at home and are just 34-41 off a win. Rubby De La Rosa is 14-8 this season (18-13 TSR), but that's in spite of a poor 4.56 ERA and lately he's been even worse w/ a 5.40 ERA and 1.574 WHIP his L3 starts, even though the team has managed to go 2-1.  He did face Houston in the only previous series this season between the clubs and allowed four runs in six innings.

Keuchel, on the other hand, is going for his 20th win of the season and there's nothing illegitimate about his record as he comes in w/ a 2.47 ERA and 1.009 WHIP.  He isn't nearly as good on the road as he is at home (where he hasn't lost all season), but save for one disastrous outing in Texas, he hasn't allowed a single earned run in his last three starts away from home. Against Arizona on August 1st, he allowed just two runs in six innings.  Houston has dominated National League foes this season, going 14-3 in Interleague Play. Keuchel is precisely the guy they want to hand the baseball to in this situation and he'll reward them w/ a big victory.  8* Houston

6* Run Line Kansas City (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Royals +1.5. You may have heard me talk about this before, but Minnesota has only been a favorite on the money line a total of 34 times this season. That's astounding for a team in actual playoff contention and thus certainly explains how they rank near the top of MLB (3rd) in net units earned this season (+23.7). However, being favored tonight also means we can grab the +1.5 w/ a Royals team that is still fighting for home field advantage in the playoffs. KC also ranks near the top of MLB in net units earned (+15.80), fifth to be precise, and has done so despite being favorite in two-thirds of their games.  They do no worse than a one-run loss here.

The way things stand going into Friday, Minnesota trails Houston by one game for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. They're also tied w/ the Angels.  They probably feel pretty good coming into tonight's series opener, being that they're at home and have Ervin Santana on the bump.  But even though Santana has pitched well lately (1.71 ERA, 1.048 WHIP L3 starts), I'm not so sure that I'd trust him. For the season, he has a 4.91 ERA and 1.445 WHIP at home. With a 15-13 September, the Twins just completed only their second winning month of the season (were 21-7 in May!). They've also only outscored their opponents by seven runs all season despite an 83-76 record. I've viewed this club as an overachiever all season long and would be very surprised if they did make it to the postseason.

Kansas City is currently in a dead heat w/ Toronto for the best record in the American League.  The odds are in the Blue Jays favor as they own the tiebreaker, plus they are playing Tampa Bay this weekend. However, note that the Royals are one of only three AL teams to currently have a winning record on the road. Chris Young gets the baseball tonight. In his two starts against the Twins in 2015, Young has posted a fantastic 0.77 ERA as he's allowed just one run and seven hits in 11 2/3 innings. He also comes off a very impressive showing, just one day removed from his father's passing, where he threw five no-hit innings vs. Cleveland. The Royals are the better team here and swept their last visit to Target Field.  6* Run Line Kansas City (+1.5)

10* Hamilton (7:30 ET): What a difference a couple of weeks make! Less than a month ago, it would have been considered unfathomable to have the Eastern Division leading Ti-Cats as a home dog, even w/ the defending Grey Cup champs coming to town. Hamilton had never lost here at Tim Horton's Field in 10 tries (opened last season) and was routinely blowing out its opponents. However, somewhat shockingly, they've since dropped two of three on their home turf. That includes a loss two weeks ago to Edmonton, 25-18, which was the Ti-Cats' lowest scoring output in over two months. With the benefit of a bye and a shift in the linesmakers perception, I think the hosts are an unbelievable value in this battle of CFL division leaders.

Even with the two recent losses, Hamilton is still outscoring its opponents by a full 16 points per game this season at Tim Horton's Field.  I continue to have them rated as the top team in the league, so in no way should they be a home dog. Calgary, as red hot as they are (won 7 of 8), has survived a number of close calls this season w/ many of them coming on the road. Last week's 25-23 win at Winnipeg marked the sixth time that they won a game by five points or less. One of those was the season opener, at home, against the Ti-Cats. It was their seventh straight win over Hamilton (11-1 SU L12 meetings), but really the Ti-Cats should have won as they never trailed until the final gun when the Stamps kicked a GW 50-yard field goal. On the road, Calgary is just 3-3 SU this season, as opposed to 7-0 SU at home. 

Now I obviously do need to touch on the absence of Hamilton QB Zach Collaros. That's the primary reason for the dramatic shift in the line, but I think it's an overadjustment. With him in, I would have made the Ti-Cats about an eight-point favorite. We're talking a 10-point swing then w/o him in the lineup, which is just too much. Teams coming off the bye have gone 8-5 SU including four consecutive wins. Turnovers have also been huge for Hamilton as they are +18 in that department this year, which is 16 better than the #2 team! Look for backup Jeff Matthews to come in and play well, supplemented by an effective run game.  Finally, don't forget that this is rematch from LY's Grey Cup, so the Ti-Cats have major revenge on their minds. 10* Hamilton

10* Over Temple/Charlotte (7:00 ET): The one spot in the "New Year's Six" bowl games that goes to a non-Power 5 conference school could very well be going the way of Temple, if all breaks right.  The Owls are currently 3-0 SU and will only be a dog in two, maybe three, of their remaining games. This is certainly not one of those times as they travel to Charlotte to play a team in its first year at the FBS level. The 49ers are certainly not worth a play at this juncture, but then neither is Temple playing on the road, in this price range. Therefore, let's turn to the total, which is interestingly lower than almost all of these two teams' previous games.  Take the Over.

The one thing that people are probably familiar w/ as it pertains to Temple is them sacking Penn St QB Christian Hackenberg a total of 10 times in the season opener. However, the defensive numbers since that game, a 27-10 upset as six-point underdogs, leave a lot to be desired. The Owls have allowed an alarming 800+ yards passing in road wins over Cincinnati and UMass. They allowed 557 total yards vs. Cincinnati and 438 to UMass.  Charlotte probably isn't capable of matching that kind of offensive production, but the 49ers should do better than the 21 total pts they've scored the last two games combined, presuming they can simply "get out of their own way."  A stat that I had to triple check (because I couldn't believe it) is that Charlotte has turned the ball over seven times in EACH of its L2 games!

The Temple offense has quietly averaged 28.7 PPG and I expect them to score a season-high Friday.  Two weeks ago, this Charlotte defense allowed 73 points and over 700 total yards to Middle Tennessee. How Florida Atlantic last week managed only one offensive TD against them, despite the seven turnovers, is beyond me. But what I do know is that Temple QB PJ Walker is playing very well right now. He threw for a career-high 391 yards against UMass, which showed me that the Owls can win in multiple ways. In the first two games, it was the rushing attack leading the way w/ 364 yards. All three Charlotte totals this year have been 65 pts or higher while Temple's last two were both 55.5, so there is a lot of value here.  10* Over Temple/Charlotte

8* Under Memphis/South Florida (7:00 ET):  I talked a good deal about Memphis' game last week vs. Cincinnati in my analysis for Thursday night's Bearcats game against Miami, but I'll obviously rehash here. There were over 1300 total yards gained in a 53-46 final that went Memphis' way at the Liberty Bowl. That game, which was on national television, has clearly resulted in the expectation of a high-scoring game this Friday, but unless the Tigers are able to maintain their season average of 53.7 points per game (which I certainly don't think they will) than I see this one staying Under as this week's opponent isn't nearly as prolific offensively as their last two opponents. In fact, it's not even close. 

In two games against FBS competition, USF has only managed 31 total points and failed to top 300 yards either time. I went against them in their last game, which was two Saturdays ago at Maryland.  They finished that game w/ a pathetic 60 yards passing! Even w/ the benefit of three turnovers, the Bulls failed to move the ball much.  Of course, going back to the start of Willie Taggart's tenure here, offense has been an issue.  Last year's Bulls team averaged only 17.2 PPG and that was actually up from the previous year's woeful 13.8 PPG.  With only four returning starters on that side of the ball this season, not much improvement is to be expected. Out of a possible 27 games, Taggart's teams have been held to 17 pts or fewer a total of 18 times. That's atrocious. They've averaged just 15 PPG in a pair of losses to Memphis, by the way.

Memphis will score plenty in this game, even Taggart admitted so, but in what shapes up as a potential blowout, you have to wonder if Tigers' HC Justin Fuente calls the dogs off early.  Memphis' last two games have been wild shootouts, both decided by one score, featuring a lot of late, back & forth scoring. Last week saw a total of five touchdowns scored in the fourth quarter between them and Cincinnati. I look for a much different game Friday night. Also, with a bye week on deck followed by arguably the biggest game in the history of the program, vs. Ole Miss (at home!), don't discount the "lookahead" factor for the visitors here. 8* Under Memphis/South Florida

6* Arizona (9:40 ET):  Both of these NL West teams are simply playing out the season, but like the linesmakers, I greatly favor the Diamondbacks at home this year.  The D'backs will potentially get to play spoiler in their next series (host playoff hopeful Houston), but before then can pick up an easy win over a division foe that they've essentially dominated in 2015. They're 12-6 vs. the Rockies, including 7-2 here at home. That includes taking the first two games of this three-game set, by scores of 4-3 and 3-1. You probably don't need me to tell you that Colorado is a dreadful road team (though not quite as dreadful as they were in 2014). Still, this should be an easy one for the home team w/ Pat Corbin on the hill.

Once upon a time, it appeared as if Corbin might turn into one of the best pitchers in the game. He was 12-1 w/ a 2.31 ERA through 20 starts in 2013 before a UCL tear, which basically kept him out of the game for nearly two years (required Tommy John surgery).  He returned to the Arizona rotation on July 4th and since that time has steadily started to resemble "old form" w/ five consecutive quality starts prior to his last time out. While he did struggle somewhat a week ago vs. the Dodgers, the fact of the matter is that going against Clayton Kershaw was a tough spot regardless. Corbin's first four September starts saw him deliver an 18-0 KW ratio and one of those took place at Coors Field in Colorado where he allowed just two runs in 6 1/3 innings. Corbin's first start of 2015 also came against the Rockies, here at home, and he again allowed just two runs there.

Colorado has beaten Corbin just one time in nine tries and that was back in 2012. Two of their best hitters - Carlos Gonzalez and Nolen Arenado - have really struggled against him, going a combined 5 for 26.  Though it was just a 3-1 final last night, it really could have been a lot worse for the Rockies as Arizona went just 1 for 11 w/ RISP. I certainly don't like starter David Hale's chances here as he's coming off his first win in nearly three months and owns a 5.97 ERA and 1.468 WHIP in 11 starts overall this season. Since that previous win, Hale had allowed at least four runs in seven consecutive outings. The Rockies have lost 7 of 10 overall and are just 11-31 vs. southpaws this season. 6* Arizona

8* Under Ravens/Steelers (8:25 ET): When you think of the Ravens-Steelers rivalry, you think of tough, low-scoring games. But, somewhat surprisingly, the Over is 6-3-1 the past 10 matchups and in two of the three last year (remember, they met in the playoffs), the winner scored at least 30 points.  Even more surprising is that the Over is 11-4-2 the past 17 meetings here in Pittsburgh.  But then again, maybe all this shouldn't be surprising given how prolific the Steelers' offense has been in the past w/ QB Ben Roethlisberger at the helm. Therein lies the issue Thursday, however, as it won't be Big Ben under center for the Steelers, but rather Mike Vick and on a short week, in a new system, I don't expect much from him. Take the Under.

Baltimore is 0-3 and desperate. Though no consolation to them, they easily could be 3-0.  In every game, they had a lead late in the second half. Though defense has clearly been an issue the L2 games w/o Terrell Suggs, the offense is not w/o blame itself.  The opening game vs. Denver actually saw NO offensive touchdowns scored on either side. The L2 games have both seen a dramatic increase in scoring, but note LW vs. Cincinnati, it was a 14-0 game at the half and only 14-7 going into the fourth quarter! Heck, it was only 14-10 w/ just under seven minutes remaining and then both teams scored two touchdowns each to inflate the scoring. I'm still not convinced that the Ravens' offense is "out of the woods" yet, however, as one of their TD's again came from the defense.  Also, the Under is 8-1-1 following a game where QB Joe Flacco throws for 250+ yards passing.  With Gary Kubiak's zone blocking scheme off to Denver, the Ravens have had issues establishing the run w/ Justin Forsett.  In general, Flacco seems to be lacking weapons, save for WR Steve Smith.

Even with Roethlisberger on the field for the majority of the game, Pittsburgh scored only 12 pts last week. Once Vick took over, they did next to nothing, gaining just 49 yards total on four drives, none of which lasted longer than four plays. The only three points they scored after the Big Ben injury was set up by a Rams turnover. Again, I just don't expect much from Vick here at all. His work in a backup role last season in New York left a lot to be desired as he completed only 52.9 percent of his pass attempts and his QBR (ESPN stat) of 21.4 was the worst in the league among all QB's w/ at least 100 pass attempts.  This is his first year in the offense and a short week does him absolutely NO favors here. 8* Under Ravens/Steelers

10* Montreal (7:35 ET):  I've been waiting on this spot for awhile.  The Als have double revenge and are the better team, in my opinion, regardless of what the respective records may say. The two losses to the REDBLACKS this year have been by a total of seven points, one at home and one on the road, both w/ Montreal favored. Now the linesmakers have "changed their tune" with Ottawa laying points. Though a "nice story" at 7-5, the Redblacks (one year removed from expansion) are by no means a complete team. They've been outscored this season by 41 points, a margin that only three teams in the league are worse than. Meanwhile, despite its own 5-7 record, Montreal is +20 in scoring differential, trailing only the "big three" of Calgary, Edmonton and Hamilton. Take the points.

The Als have some really nice wins this season. In Week 2, they beat the Grey Cup Champions (Calgary) 29-11 and then last month went to Hamilton (as 11-pt dogs) and became the first road team to ever win at the Ti-Cats "new" stadium (opened last year). However, that 26-23 victory over the Eastern Division leaders has been the exception and not the rule as the Als have gone a horrible 2-5 SU in games decided by four points or less. That does make them a solid value taking points, however, which is something they've done only six times so far and the ATS results in those games is 5-0-1 w/ four outright upsets!  Also adding to the value here is the fact the Als are off a bad loss last week, in Saskatchewan, to the previously 1-11 Rough Riders.  Multiple interceptions being returned for scores were the culprit in that game and as a result Rakeem Cato is back, replacing Jonathan Crompton at the pivot position. I think that's the right call. Cato is 4-0 as a starter this year and w/ the team down 15-1 last week, he was able to come in and throw for 200+ yards and a pair of TD's.

With just a one-game lead for the cross-over spot (final playoff berth), this is an absolutely huge game for the Alouettes. They blew a chance to go up two games on BC and 2.5 on Winnipeg last week.  Meanwhile, Ottawa is also off a loss, theirs coming here at home to Toronto, which snapped a three-game win streak.  What's interesting is that was just the second time the Redbacks were favored all season. That makes sense w/ the negative YTD scoring differential.   Even though they've beaten Montreal twice, I don't think the shift in the line is warranted for this third matchup.  10* Montreal