6* LA Dodgers (9:37 ET): Yes, the price is expensive and were this a regular season game and I'd probably stay away. But this is the postseason and in my eyes, the oddsmakers can't set a line high enough to steer me away from the Dodgers tonight. They won Game 1 easily, 6-0, and this figures to be a short series with the Braves. As discussed in yday's analysis, LA has the clear advantage in this LDS and is the superior team in virtually every way. At home w/ Clayton Kershaw on the bump, this could be the biggest single-game mismatch we'll see all postseason.

Kershaw was initially going to start Game 1, but was then bumped back a day so he could start on extended rest. I lauded the decision to go w/ Hyun-Jin Ryu yday as his numbers here at Dodger Stadium were pretty spectacular in their own right. He threw seven shutout innings as Game 1 was never in doubt. Now comes Kershaw, who need no introduction. Kershaw has a 2.56 ERA and 1.016 WHIP at home this season and the team has won his last eight starts overall. When working on five or more days rest this season, Kershaw has been better than normal, particularly when it comes to strikeout rate. He goes from averaging 7.6 K's per nine innings (3.21 ERA) on four days rest to 9.2 K's per nine innings (2.48 ERA) when working on five. This is a really tall order for a young Braves team playing in its first postseason together. 

Starting for Atlanta will be Anibal Sanchez, who has allowed 2 ER or fewer in six of his last seven starts. But to expect him to go toe to toe w/ Kershaw in this spot seems foolish. Sanchez almost didn't make the Braves' rotation back in the Spring as he was battling with Scott Kazmir for the final spot! So he's come a long way. But now he has to face the National League's top lineup and not only is he clearly the inferior starter in Game 2, but he has the inferior bullpen behind him. The Dodgers have faced Sanchez twice before in 2018. The last time saw him give up four runs in an 8-2 loss. Kershaw faced the Braves once this year and held them to one run over 7 2/3 innings. That was on the road. Here at home, he should be even more dominant as the Dodgers allow a league-low 3.6 rpg at home. 6* LA Dodgers

10* Utah State (9:00 ET): Utah State is quietly having itself a solid season. Their only loss came in the season opener, at Michigan State, and they probably should have won that game. They led Sparty going into the final two minutes before giving up a GW TD. Since then, it's been all double digit wins for the Aggies as they've rolled New Mexico State, Tennessee Tech and Air Force. I had them against Air Force two weeks ago and though they pushed for me (was an ATS win for some), it was still an impressive win in Logan. They were up 21 in the second half before allowing the Falcons in through the backdoor (there was a defensive TD involved). Now USU is off a bye as they take on BYU in the annual battle for the "Old Wagon Wheel." I love the underdog in this year's installment. 

No one is going to confuse Utah State's schedule w/ BYU's, but the Cougars' status as an independent may be starting to take a toll. Everyone remembers the memorable upset of Wisconsin three weeks ago, but they looked gassed LW in a 35-7 loss at Washington. The offense was shutout in that game until the closing minutes and held to only 194 total yards and seven first downs. Now, Utah State is nowhere near as good as Washington is defensively. But what the Aggies can do is put points on the board (they average 51.5 per game). I don't think BYU is going to be able to trade scores in this Friday night matchup. Also, this is the sixth straight game w/o a bye, not a huge deal (many teams in same spot this week) until you consider they've had to alternate home & road every week. 

Utah State beat BYU by 16 last season, a rare win in this rivalry. Yes, that game was at home and BYU wasn't very good. But USU also looks to be much improved for 2018, if not moreso than BYU. Coming off the bye is huge for the Aggies, especially considering BYU is on a short week after a tough loss in primetime. It's rare for Utah State to have a legit shot at winning this rivalry game in B2B years. I think they enter more focused as BYU has already played three Pac 12 teams and Wisconsin. Take the points. 10* Utah State

8* Run Line Cleveland (2:10 ET): This is a very rare opportunity to get Corey Kluber plus an additional run and a half. I'm jumping on the opportunity. Please note that this is a run line play on the Indians. The Tribe seem to be the "forgotten" team in the American League this season w/ the Red Sox & Yankees grabbing their usual headlines and the defending World Series Champion Astros coming into the playoffs as the favorite. But let's not forget it was Cleveland that came into LY's postseason as the betting favorite, spurred on by a 22-game win streak late in the regular season. Things didn't turn out very well for the Tribe as they blew a 2-0 series lead against the Yankees, losing at home in a deciding Game 5. But I like them a lot in this unaccustomed underdog role w/ Kluber on the bump.

Kluber did not have a good LDS last year as he was pulled early from both starts after shockingly allowing a total of nine runs in just over six innings. But he remains one of the best pitchers in baseball and had himself a great 2018. He actually set a new career high for wins w/ 20. The team went 21-12 in his 33 starts w/ three of the losses coming by one run. All of a sudden, we're now looking at a 24-9 mark when getting 1.5 runs as we're taking here. This was Kluber's fifth straight season w/ 200+ K's and he was one of four Indians starters to have 200+ K's, the first time we've ever seen a rotation pull that off in MLB history. Kluber faced the Astros twice this year, both back in May, and allowed only two runs in 13 1/3 IP. He had 17 K's and 0 walks.

Kluber should benefit here from the fact that Houston scored significantly FEWER runs at home during the regular season. While they averaged 5.2 rpg on the road, the 'Stros scored just 4.6 at home. We saw the Yankees' Luis Severino bounce back from a bad Wild Card performance last year to pitch well on Tuesday. I feel the same thing is set to happen w/ Kluber here in Game 1 of the LDS. Justin Verlander is obviously an outstanding pitcher in his own right, but the Indians are very familiar w/ him due to all his time spent in the AL Central. I also worry about the fact his TSR at home is just 8-11 w/ the end result of that being a loss of 19.1 units! This figures to be a low-scoring, day game where runs are at a premium. Taking the +1.5 seems logical. 8* Run Line Cleveland (+1.5)

8* LA Dodgers (8:37 ET): Of the four LDS matchups, this one looks to be the biggest mismatch on paper. The Dodgers did have to play a 163rd regular season contest Monday (beat Colorado) to win the NL West. But make no mistake about it; this team is the class of the Senior Circuit. That's why I took them against the Rockies and will back them again here in Game 1 vs. the Braves. They finished w/ the top run differential in the NL at +194, which was nearly double that of every other team. They are the most talented team of the four in the field. Atlanta was a nice story coming from nowhere to win the East, but they feel like a "happy to be here" situation and are severely outgunned in this series. 

Clayton Kershaw was initially named Game 1 starter for LA, but that was then changed to Hyun-Jin Ryu. Eyebrows were raised over the change, but it makes sense considering the move allows both Kershaw and Ryu to work on normal rest. The reality is that the Dodgers would have a significant edge in starting pitching here, no matter who started. We know that they allow just 3.6 rpg here at Chavez Ravine, the lowest average allowed at home by any NL team. Ryu has a 1.65 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in nine home starts this year w/ the team going 7-2 in those games. He enters the postseason red hot having posted a 0.47 ERA and 0.737 WHIP his L3 starts overall. He's given up just one run in 19 IP during that span.

The upstart Braves turn to Mike Foltynewicz for Game 1. He turned in a pretty fine season in his own right w/ a 2.85 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in 31 starts. His 15-16 TSR was pretty misleading. His numbers did not go up on the road (2.48 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) during the regular season and the team actually had a better record on the road than at home. Foltynewicz's ERA (4.76) over his L3 starts was also a little misleading when you consider his WHIP was 0.882. But despite all that, he's outgunned here. The Dodgers have the better bullpen and offense, plus they took five of seven regular season meetings from the Braves. Foltynewicz started once against the Dodgers in the regular season and gave up four runs in five innings. 8* LA Dodgers 

8* Under Colts/Patriots (8:20 ET): As per usual, the demise of the Patriots was greatly exaggerated. In a rare spot off B2B losses, they absolutely tattooed the unbeaten Dolphins last week, winning 38-7 as a 6.5-pt home favorite. All now seems well in Foxboro where the Pats are playing again this week, Thursday night hosting the 1-3 Colts. Indy made it look interesting LW vs. Houston, but the reality was they were down 28-10 in the second half of that game. Andrew Luck was able to force OT, but it was not to be as HC Frank Reich gambled and came up short on a 4th down call, which then set up the game winning field goal for the Texans. Can you believe the last time the Colts beat the Patriots was 2009? That's unlikely to change here, but the large pointspread had dissuaded me from making a play on a side. 

The Colts have ruled out seven players for this game. The most notable among them is WR T.Y. Hilton, leaving Ryan Grant and Chester Rogers as the team's starting receivers. Yikes. The offense did put up plenty of points last week and Luck threw for 437 yards (on 62 attempts!), but don't look for that to happen here. The previous two weeks saw the Colts gain just 281 and 209 total yards. Notable is that both of those were road games, just as this one is. The Under is a perfect 6-0 in the Colts' last six road games, not to mention a perfect 5-0 when they enter in off an ATS loss. Bottom line is that I expect very little from the Colts offense here.

Theoretically, Tom Brady should be able to move the ball at will against this Indy defense. But he may not have Rob Gronkowski to throw the ball to. Gronk is listed as questionable here due to an ankle injury after leaving in the third quarter vs. Miami. He has been absent from practice this week, though the injury is not considered that serious. Julian Edelman is expected back from suspension and a possible Gronk-Edelman pairing would be huge for Brady. Still, this offense is only two weeks removed from a disastrous effort in Detroit (209 total yards) and it won't take many points to win this one. I look for the scoring to slow down late and for the Under to come in. The Under is 4-1 in the Patriots' last five Thursday games. 8* Under Colts/Patriots

8* Carolina (7:05 ET): It's pretty difficult to envision a scenario where the Islanders finish in the top three, or even four, in the Metro this year. They're coming off a 80-point season and said goodbye to long-time captain John Tavares. Now, just two years ago, the Isles were a playoff contender. Despite the loss of Tavares, I actually think they will finish w/ more than 80 points in 2018-19. But that's not asking much. Matthew Barzal will be asked to fill the void left by Tavares and seems capable given that he scored 22 goals and had a team-high 85 points. But the issue for the Isles remains between the pipes where LY they surrendered a league-high 296 goals.

Carolina also would seem unlikely to finish in the top half of the Metro. Their nine-year playoff drought is the league's longest and they too have issues in goal. But, like the Islanders, I do see the 'Canes beating low expectations. There's a new HC here w/ Rod Brind'Amour replacing Bill Peters. "I like how young guys are playing," Brind'Amour said. "They're going to take some time to develop. As far as talent, I don't feel we're short anything. We want to play aggressively." The biggest issue that Brind'Amour faces, at least initially, is in goal. Scott Darling played well in the preseason, but was injured in the final game. That leaves the club pretty depth-shy at the most important position, though they did claim Curtis McElhinney off waivers Tuesday. Petr Mrazek will start the season opener.

Carolina had a strong preseason, going 5-0-1. Not sure if that means anything long-term, but it shows me there's some motivation at the start of the season. While it's disappointing they won't have Darling in goal tonight, Mrazek still should do a decent enough job. I'd be more concerned about the situation if the Islanders weren't so prone to giving up goals in bunches themselves. They allowed 40+ shots on goal in roughly one-quarter of the games last season. The Isles' own new HC, Barry Trotz (jumped from Stanley Cup Champs in Washington) doesn't have much to work w/ this season. Carolina actually has a pretty decent blue line coming into the year and I see them getting the two points in this battle of new HC's. 8* Carolina

8* Puck Line Montreal (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am backing the Canadiens +1.5. Of the four Opening Night games, this one looks to be the biggest mismatch on paper. But perception is not always reality. Toronto is a team I feel is overvalued coming into the 2018-19 season. Yes, they added John Tavares and should have a full season from Auston Matthews after posting 105 points last season. They still should be one of the league's premier offensive teams, but don't be surprised if they fail to top LY's point total. Meanwhile, the Habs may enter the season w/ low expectations, but I have them beating them due to the near certainty that Carey Price will appear between the pipes more than 48 times. Take the +1.5.

Obviously, the losses of Shea Weber (knee injury) and Max Pacioretty (traded to Vegas) are what has such a sense of pessimism surrounding Montreal. But I again point to a healthy Price as a reason they'll stay in, if not win, more games this season. Price remains one of the league's elite goaltenders and should perform a lot better on the PK this year. Keep in mind they played a large portion of last season w/o Pacioretty and Weber as well, so it's not as if this will be anything new. Following such a sharp decline last year, improvement this year is only natural. Remember that the Canadiens won the Atlantic Division two years ago. I believe they'll top the books' (very) low 80.5 point projection.

Toronto swept the season series w/ the Habs last year, winning all four meetings. That was after losing all four meetings in 2016-17. So Montreal won't be lacking for motivation in this one. Again, the Leafs look overvalued to me. Tavares has never hit 90 points in a season. Then, you have the defensive issues. It's very likely that they will rank in the bottom half of the league in goals allowed. Despite ranking 11th in goals against last season, they still gave up too many shots on a per game basis (33.9). I do not think goalie Frederik Andersen is going to be able to match LY's save percentage (.918) if he faces a similar workload. Maybe Montreal doesn't win this game, but they'll do no worse than a one-goal loss. 8* Puck Line Montreal (+1.5)

10* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): While both teams had to play Monday (and obviously lost), this is an absolutely horrendous spot for Colorado. They're playing in a third city in three days (all in different time zones!) and second in a row away from home. Being away from the friendly confines of their own park means a predictable offensive decline will set in, like we saw yday in LA. The Cubs sure seemed like the less motivated side yday vs. Milwaukee, but that certainly shouldn't be the case tonight. I've been down on the Rockies most of the year as a serious playoff threat due to an uninspiring run differential that hovered around zero much of the way. Only a late sweep of the Phillies (at home) got that diff to a more respectable number. I'm not deviating from my yearlong take on the Rockies here. 

Jon Lester starts for this winner take all game for the Cubs and is a fine choice, given the situation. Lester has plenty of big-game experience and the team has won seven of his last eight starts. He actually pitched slightly better on the road in the regular season, but did close w/ a 1.87 ERA his L7 starts overall. Four of those seven starts took place here at Wrigley. These teams have not met since early May and Lester's lone start vs. the Rockies came on April 30th. It was here at home and he threw 5 2/3 innings while giving up only two unearned runs. As a reminder, Colorado's scoring average dips more than a full run per game outside of Coors down to 4.1. They managed just two runs on four hits yday in LA, both runs coming in the top of the ninth. They had just two hits through eight innings. 

The pitcher who faced Lester back on 4.30 will do so again here in the NL Wild Card Game. It's Kyle Freeland, who was one of several surprising arms in the Rockies rotation this year. Shockingly though, Freeland actually pitched better this year at Coors where his TSR was 13-2. It was 3-2 Cubs in the first Lester vs. Freeland battle and I see this one ending up far more lopsided. Yes, the Rockies have won 10 of Freeland's last 12 starts as well as 15 of the last 17. But none were against the Cubs and most of the wins came against the NL West. Can't see Chicago dropping B2B one-game situations at Wrigley. 10* Chi Cubs

10* Denver (8:15 ET): It's a new quarterback, yet the same success for Kansas City, who has raced out to a 3-0 start behind the sensational QB play of Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is the first QB in NFL history to throw at least 13 touchdown passes in the first three games of a season. Under HC Andy Reid, the games that the Chiefs have enjoyed the most success have been those against divisional foes. They are a ridiculous 17-2 SU vs. the rest of the AFC West the last four years, including a 38-28 win over the Chargers back in Week 1! That includes five straight wins (and covers) over Monday's opponent, the Denver Broncos. But with the high-flying start, I believe KC is a little overvalued in being asked to lay this many points on the road. Take the home dog on MNF!

As exciting as Mahomes and the rest of the KC offense has been, the team's defense has actually been very bad. They are giving up 30.7 points per game. That hasn't caught up w/ them yet - because the offense has been so good - but eventually, it will. That scoring average by the Chiefs defense ranks 30th in the league right now and they are also 32nd (i.e. dead last) in terms of yards allowed. The Denver offense may not be as impressive on paper, but it's a group I have projected to improve in 2018. On the road last week in Baltimore, the Broncos didn't manage much (only 14 pts). But in the first two weeks, both here at home, they scored 27 and 20 points. Case Keenum may not evoke memories of the Peyton Manning era here in Mile High, but he's far more competent than what the team had under center last season. 

Denver was also hurt last week when RB Phillip Lindsay was ejected for throwing a punch. It's defending the pass where Kansas City has been more susceptible so far this season, but they also gave up 178 yds rushing LW to the 49ers. Really, you have to think the Chiefs' numbers at stopping the run would be far worse if not for the fact they've gotten off to a great start offensively in all three games. It is imperative for the Broncos not to fall behind early in this game. Playing at home, in primetime, I don't think they will. Their defense has yet to allow 300 yards passing or 100 yards rushing in any game and if they keep that streak alive, then they'll at least cover here. 10* Denver

8* LA Dodgers (4:05 ET): This play should not come as any surprise to those who have been following my baseball selections this year. When it comes to the NL West race, the Dodgers and Rockies may have tied for first place, but one is clearly superior to the other. The Dodgers outscored their opponents by a NL-best 191 runs over the 162-game schedule. Only two teams in all of baseball - Houston and Boston - had better YTD run differentials. Meanwhile, Colorado had a run diff of +38, which ranked only SEVENTH overall in the NL. For awhile, the Rockies' run differential was hovering around 0, that was until they destroyed the Phillies in a four-game set at Coors Field last week. But this one-game scenario takes place at Dodger Stadium. 

Walker Buehler gets the call here for Dodger Blue. Next to Clayton Kershaw (who pitched Saturday), he's the team's best one-game option on the mound. Since July 31st, Buehler has posted a sterling 1.70 ERA in 11 starts. He's faced Colorado five times this year and has 2.61 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Two of those starts came in September, the last one here at home and Buehler responded w/ a career-best 12 K's in a 5-2 win. That performance was part of a three-game sweep for the Dodgers. Buehler has been outstanding at home all season w/ a 1.48 ERA and 0.776 WHIP in 11 outings. Remember Colorado doesn't hit nearly as well on the road and their scoring average drops from 5.4 runs per game to 4.1. No NL team allowed fewer rpg at home than the Dodgers. So, the home field edge is big here. 

German Marquez will oppose Buehler here. In a head to head battle earlier this season, Marquez did get the upper hand. But that 2-1 final (in Colorado's favor) saw near identical stat lines from the two starters. Buehler allowed only one run on two hits in seven innings of work. Marquez allowed the same number of runs and hits in the same number of innings; the Rockies were just fortunate to get a late infield single. Something else to consider here is this is a day game. The Dodgers are 27-14 in day games this year, the best such win percentage in the Senior Circuit. I look for them to take care of business Monday afternoon and win the NL West. 8* LA Dodgers

8* Baltimore (8:20 ET): Contrary to popular belief, one win will not cure all that ails the Steelers as this is a team w/ a lot of deficiencies - on both sides of the ball. I took them Monday night as it was not only a desperate spot at 0-2, but they were also facing a Bucs team w/ an overhyped QB. It's a more familiar foe in primetime this week, rival Baltimore, and the one less day to prepare does the Black & Gold no favors here. The Ravens have outgained all three opponents so far and seem to be a lot better on offense this season. They are averaging 32.3 points and 379 yards per game. Also, the Ravens have owned this rivalry - at the betting window, at least - going 5-1-1 ATS the past seven meetings. Five of the last six have been one score games. This has me on the dog Sunday night.

The Ravens are allowing a league-low 273 YPG through three weeks. Thus, they have outgained those same foes by over 100 YPG. They have a point differential of +46, which is the best in the AFC. Now that's all still skewed because they got to play the Bills in Week 1, but aside from digging an early hole too deep to climb out of in Week 2 vs. Cincinnati (Thurs night road game), Baltimore has looked very good this season. Certainly, their league-leading defense will be tested by a Pittsburgh offense that ranks third in yards per game. But it's a Steelers' offense that is still w/o RB LeVeon Bell. Two weeks ago, the Steelers scored 37 points, had 475 total yards, didn't turn the ball over once and still lost - at home. They are not going to be able to put up those kind of offensive numbers this week. 

The short week hasn't really bothered Mike Tomlin's team in the past as they're 3-0 SU the L3 seasons after playing on MNF. But they're also just 1-2 ATS. The Steelers were very lucky Monday night in Tampa as the Bucs turned the ball over four times. They picked off QB Ryan Fitzpatrick three times in the 1st half, returning one of them for a defensive score. The offense was actually shutout in the 2nd half and nearly blew a 20-pt halftime lead. Meanwhile, Baltimore looked good LW vs. Denver, executing well on both sides of the ball. The defense shut the Broncos out completely in the final three quarters and QB Joe Flacco completed 25 of 40 pass attempts. At the end of the day, I'm just not that high on this Steelers team this year. 8* Baltimore 

8* Chi Cubs (3:20 ET): The Cubs may have already clinched a playoff spot, but they still need a win Sunday. They enter the final day of the regular season tied w/ Milwaukee for 1st place in the NL Central. At stake today is not only the division pennant, but also homefield advantage in the National League. If the Cubs and Brewers end up tied after today, then there will be a one-game playoff tomorrow (could be the same situation in the NL West). The Cubs have been in first place since mid-July, so it would be a psychological blow to have to enter the playoffs as a Wild Card. Speaking of psychological blows, St. Louis was eliminated from playoff contention yesterday. The Cubs should take advantage of that and come through Sunday. 

Mike Montgomery will pitch here for the Cubs. Considering that Yu Darvish's injury is the only reason he is even in the starting rotation, Montgomery has been a pleasant surprise for Chicago. He also might be the right man for the job today. In 11 career starts vs. St. Louis, he has a 2.70 ERA. He's off a bit of a rough outing where he allowed five runs in just four innings. But he'd also allowed 2 ER or fewer in five of six starts before that. St. Louis comes into today batting a collective .219 over the last week. Yesterday was actually their first win in a game where they had three or fewer hits all season. 

Whomever pitches today for the Cards will not be as effective as Miles Mikolas was yesterday. It's still scheduled to be Jack Flaherty, who is winless over his last five outings. He has a 5.06 ERA his L3 starts. With the Cards eliminated from contention, there's a chance Flaherty could be scratched. That would likely make the Cubs an even bigger favorite and increase their odds of winning. I'll stick with this play regardless as this is a great price on the Cubbies at Wrigley, given the situation. 8* Chi Cubs 

10* Houston (1:00 ET): The Texans are winless - both straight up and against the number - at 0-3 and desperate for a win this week at Indianapolis. Needless to say, this is about as "must-win" as it gets. Going back to last season, the team has now lost nine straight in the regular season and 12 of its last 13. HC Bill O'Brien no longer has the "excuse" of not having a healthy DeShaun Watson at QB. Another loss this week, to the division rival Colts, and O'Brien's "seat" will be most definitely be the hottest in the league. So needless to say, Houston won't be lacking for motivation in Week 4, nevermind the fact they have double revenge from LY against Indianapolis. I think the Texans are better than what they've shown so far and I'll take them in this spot. Take the points. 

Indianapolis is 1-2 SU and coming off a loss to the Eagles. Despite covering each of the last two games, they've been outgained both times. In a 21-9 win over Washington in Week 2, they had the three scoring drives, all of which were 75 yds or longer. But on all other drives in the game, they gained just 56 total yards. Talk about opportunistic. Last week's game in Philly was not as close as the final score of 20-16 indicates as the Colts were outgained 379-209 and were lucky that Eagles QB Carson Wentz turned it over twice inside his own 17-yard line. Even w/ the excellent field position, the Colts' offense couldn't do much, settling only for a pair of field goals. But those two kicks were the difference between covering and not covering. The Colts offense had only 14 first downs in the game and possessed the ball for less than 20 minutes. QB Andrew Luck is averaging a career-low 5.3 yards per pass attempt so far. 

Meanwhile, the Houston offense has performed better than you might think, averaging 6.1 yards per play, which ranks 8th in the league. All three losses have been by 7 pts or less. They outgained both the Titans (437-283) and Giants (427-329), yet didn't even cover either time. While the Colts did beat the Texans both times LY, note they were fortunate to avoid Watson both times. Watson has established a strong rapport w/ WRs Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins. They should put plenty of points on the board against a bad Colts defense. 10* Houston

10* Under Bengals/Falcons (1:00 ET): As I expressed last week, the Bengals have really surprised me with their amount of scoring this year. This is an offense I had projected to suffer a decline in scoring from last year when they ranked dead last in the league in yards per game. Yet, they came out and scored 34 pts each of the first two weeks. They did decline some in Week 3, suffering their first loss of the season, 31-21 at Carolina. Ironically though, they gained more total yards in that game (396) than they did in either of their two wins. A -4 turnover margin is what killed them against the Panthers. Now they get set to face another NFC South team on the road, Atlanta, who has its own issues right now, namely injuries. I'm going to roll again w/ the Under on the Bengals.

Admittedly, Atlanta's defense is facing some major issues right now, all because of injuries. Only three weeks are in the books and already three defensive starters have been lost to injury. Linebacker Deion Jones and safety Keanu Neal went down in Week 1. Now the team's other starting safety, Ricardo Allen, will be joining them on the sidelines after tearing his Achilles in last week's loss to New Orleans. That game w/ the Saints was a real shootout, not decided until overtime, with the final score being 43-37. That has played a significant role in this week's total being so high. I realize there's a risk involved taking the Falcons Under w/ so many injuries on the defensive side of the ball. I took them Over two weeks ago hosting Carolina and that was a winner. But the number was also much lower. 

Want some perspective on just how high this total is for a Bengals game? Since 2010, the team has played only ONE game w/ a total north of 50 pts. That was Week 11 of the 2014 season at New Orleans and the game easily stayed Under as it was a 27-10 final (in favor of the Saints). The Bengals have a significant injury of their own that they are monitoring, that being the groin of WR AJ Green. If Green (who did not finish the Carolina game) is out, then that severely limits the Bengals' ability to exploit the Falcons' wounded secondary. Speaking of offensive injuries, Falcons' RB Devonta Freeman's status also remains unclear. I just look at this total as being too high, despite what we've seen from the respective offenses thus far. 10* Under Bengals/Falcons

8* Chicago (1:00 ET): The Bears aren't the most impressive 2-1 league, but given how the John Fox era went, they'll take this start under 1st year HC Matt Nagy. It may surprise some to find the Monsters of the Midway favored for a third straight week here. After suffering the heartbreaking loss to Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay in Week 1 (still covered), I took them again in Week 2 in a Monday night win over Seattle. Last week, I said they had no business being a road favorite, even against Arizona. They may have come back to win that game, 16-14, but never were "in the money" except for a brief moment at the end (when a pick-six was overturned). This week, they're back in the Windy City, laying a small number and I like the spot a lot. Lay the points! 

Tampa Bay is off a loss, on a short week and playing on the road. They also have a QB decision looming. Jameis Winston isn't suspended anymore, meaning the pressure is back on Ryan Fitzpatrick. Through two weeks of the season, this looked like an easy decision for Bucs HC Dirk Koetter. Fitzpatrick was playing at a "MVP level" (two 400+ yard games w/ 4 TD passes!) and the team was 2-0 SU. But, predictably, Fitzpatrick came back down to Earth Monday against the Steelers. Yes, it was a 4th straight 400+ yd game, but he threw three costly interceptions in the 1st half and the Bucs lost 30-27 at home. They were down 30-10 at half and 30-13 entering the 4th quarter. Now Koetter is "mum" on who will start this game and I think it's going to turn into a mess.

I'd be more concerned about the Bucs' game of secrecy if not for the fact the Bears have an outstanding defense. Admittedly, they have faced weak offenses each of the L2 weeks. But they rank 5th in total defense and 8th in scoring, giving them a huge edge over the Bucs' weak stop unit, which ranks 31st and 29th respectively. Chicago's pass rush should be a major factor in this game. On offense, QB Mitchell Trubisky remains a "work in progress," but this will be the weakest defense he's faced all year. Though it hasn't been pretty, the Bears probably should be 3-0 and remember I am higher on this team than most. They're not getting enough respect here at home. 8* Chicago

8* California (10:30 ET): What an absolutely horrendous spot this is for Oregon as they are laying points on the road (against a rested foe), one week removed from literally giving the game away against Stanford. As you've probably seen by now, the Ducks blew a 10-point lead in the closing minutes last week and lost in overtime. They were up by a touchdown, with the ball and just 50 seconds to go, when RB CJ Verdell fumbled in a situation the Ducks should have just been kneeling. Stanford then drove for a game-tying FG before winning in OT. Now here comes Cal, waiting in the wings, off its bye. The Bears certainly won't be lacking for motivation Saturday night as they are eager to overturn a 1-8 SU run in this Pac 12 rivalry. Cal has already beaten BYU on the road. Take the points.

If you can believe it, Oregon's loss to Stanford gets even worse with further inspection. They led 24-7 in the third quarter and appeared on the verge of making it 31-7 when a TD was overturned (incorrectly). After the TD was overturned, they fumbled and it was returned for a Stanford TD in a dramatic 14-pt swing. That was clearly the turning point in the game. The Ducks would score only one TD the rest of the game and even though they still finished w/ a 524-398 edge in total yds, it did not matter because of a -3 turnover differential. It is going to be extraordinarily difficult for the Ducks to get off the mat after that kind of setback, especially now having to lay points on the road. 

Oregon's only wins this year came against Bowling Green, Portland State and San Jose State. This is their 1st road game. They didn't come close to matching the expectations against San Jose State where they were massive 42.5-pt favorites (won 35-22). Cal has already beaten North Carolina and BYU. Like I've stated twice before, they are rested coming into this game and that's a big time advantage. Bears HC Justin Wilcox used to be an assistant under both Chris Petersen and Steve Sarkisian, both of whom had outstanding ATS records w/ an extra week of prep. Last year, Cal had one bye and it led to a cover against rival Stanford. This year's Cal squad is far better w/ 18 starters back, 10 on offense, and I believe they're set for the biggest win yet under HC Wilcox. Take the points. 8* California

8* Over BYU/Washington (8:30 ET): Both of these teams are 4-0 Under on the season. As a result, we have a lower than expected total. Now, has the Washington offense performed up to expectations thus far? Certainly not. This is a team that has averaged 36.2 and 41.8 points per game the last two seasons and brought eight starters back, including senior QB Jake Browning. I think it's only a matter of time before the Huskies start to hit their stride though. This is actually a top 25 battle now w/ BYU having "snuck" into the rankings on the strength of their stunning upset in Madison. While neither defense has given up more than 23 points in any game this season, I think at least one will get there Saturday (most likely Washington) and I'm on the Over. 

BYU went 4-9 last season. That's pretty atypical in Provo, so a bounce back season was all but assured. I took the Cougars in the opener when they went to Arizona and won outright, as double digit dogs, 28-23. They followed that up w/ a narrow home loss to Cal. Then came the game that caught everyone off-guard, the 24-23 upset of Wisconsin in Madison. I seriously doubt that the Cougars are going to be able to pull a second upset of a Top 10 team on the road, in less than three weeks. As stingy as the defense has looked, they basically gave up 400 total yards to both Cal and Wisconsin. Despite its rather meager PPG average (27.2), Washington has still averaged 432 YPG this season at 6.4 yards per play. They will be able to move the ball on this BYU defense.

Something to keep in mind w/ this total is that two of each team's four games would have gone Over it. Now Washington has allowed only 30 pts in three games since losing the opener to Auburn. But this is the toughest opponent they've played since the Tigers. It was a 14-10 game after one quarter LW vs. Arizona State. The Huskies also gave up 164 yards rushing, which is notable because of the offensive scheme BYU is going with this season. The Cougars have three different players averaging at least five yards per carry as they've gotten quite creative w/ their run schemes. They ran for almost 200 yards on Wisconsin despite just 28 carries. I say both offenses move the ball better than expected and as result we have more scoring than expected. The Over is 9-4-1 when UW is off an ATS loss and they did not cover LW vs ASU as they were 18-pt favorites. 8* Over BYU/Washington

10* San Jose State (7:00 ET): This is as good a spot as I've seen all month. Hawaii will be laying points on the mainland for just the fifth time in the last eight seasons. So far, they have gone 0-4 ATS w/ a pair of outright losses. Now this time they'll be against San Jose State, who is probably one of the weakest teams in FBS, but nearly two scores is way too much. Throw in the fact that San Jose State is off a bye and you have a great potential ambush spot. My numbers indicate that this number should be closer to a field goal than two touchdowns. That's a lot of value for a SJSU squad still hungry for its first win of the season. Note that Hawaii is just 1-8 ATS when favored the L3 seasons, including an 0-2 mark here in 2018. I'll be taking the points and an outright upset is not out of the realm of possibility! 

Now you have to tip your cap to Hawaii for the way it has started its season. They come into this game w/ a 4-1 record, including two monster upsets of their own. The first two games of the season saw them pull upsets against Colorado State and Navy, both coming as double digit underdogs. I took the Warriors in that Colorado State game and was stunned at just how easy they made it look. The win over Navy came in Honolulu and since then the team has been well traveled. The pointspread caught up w/ them in a 43-27 home win over Rice where they were 17-pt favorites. Then they had to fly all the way out to the opposite coast for a Noon ET kickoff against Army. They played better than expected there, but still lost 28-21. It was back to the island LW for a 42-21 win over FCS Duquesne where they actually trailed early, 14-0. This week isn't a long trip by Hawaii standards, but the fact remains the team is still only 6-32 SU in road games sincr 2012. 

San Jose State's season opened w/ a loss to FCS team, Cal Davis. Not trying to sugarcoat that one, but Cal Davis did play Stanford tough two weeks ago. Then came two predictable losses (both on the road) to Pac 12 schools, Washington State and Oregon. The Spartans were actually massive 42.5-pt dogs against Oregon and easily covered in a 35-22 loss. So it seems as if the lack of respect this squad is getting can really work to our benefit. If they can stay within two scores of Oregon on the road, then they certainly can do the same against road weary Hawaii. The bye week is key for SJSU, who were "only" 17-pt dogs when they traveled to Hawaii LY and lost 37-26. They actually have double revenge as they lost 34-17 here at home two years ago. Hawaii is getting way too much respect here and this line is too high. 10* San Jose State 

8* Louisville (3:30 ET): It has not been a great start to 2018 for Bobby Petrino and Louisville. Getting humbled by Alabama (lost 50-7) set an ominous tone. The Cardinals did pick up a win in Week 2, but that came against a FCS school, Indiana State. They barely escaped Western Kentucky at home, 20-17, a game they had zero business winning. Last week on the road was another bad loss as they were blown out by Virginia, 27-3. Their ATS record now stands at 0-4 as they are set to welcome in what is undoubtedly a highly motivated Florida State squad. The Seminoles have had their own unexpected struggles to start the year and come in w/ double revenge after losing to the Cardinals each of the last two seasons. The 'Noles are off their most impressive game to date, a 37-19 win over Northern Illinois, but that's only helped to artificially inflate this line. I'm taking the points. 

Florida State, like Louisville, is just 2-2 w/ one of their wins coming against a FCS school. And just like L'ville against Western Kentucky, Florida State had no business beating Samford. They needed five turnovers in that one to help overcome a fourth quarter deficit. They didn't even take the lead until less than five minutes were left in the game and were still outgained 525-424. Both ACC games have gone very poorly for Willie Taggart's team as they've been blown out by Va Tech and Syracuse by a combined score of 54-10. Remember that Va Tech just lost to Old Dominion last week, so that opening week loss (which came at home!) to the Hokies now looks even worse for FSU. This is Taggart's first year in Talahassee mind you, so he has a honeymoon period. But he's still figuring out what he has and so far it hasn't been very good. 

The last two meetings have seen Louisville cover the spread by 63 points. The last time hosting FSU was a day to remember as Lamar Jackson announced his presence to the nation in a 63-20 annihilation. Last year saw the Cardinals go to Doak Walker and pull a 31-18 upset as six-point dogs. With the former Heisman winner Jackson departed, QB play has been an issue for Louisville, but no more so than turnovers have been for FSU. Takeaway that Samford game and the Noles would be -10 in TO's. Deondre Francois has not looked like the same QB he was before LY's injury and those thinking FSU is just going to be able to "show up" and exact revenge here are in for a rude awakening. 8* Louisville

10* Texas Tech (12:00 ET): Fresh off a bye, West Virginia wasted little time in taking care of Kansas State last Saturday, winning easily in Morgantown 35-6. But that wasn't the only impressive win by a Big XII team last week, nor was it the most impressive. That distinction belongs to Texas Tech going to Stillwater and beating Oklahoma State 41-17 as two-touchdown underdogs. While I'm a little concerned w/ the Red Raiders' record off a conference win the L2 seasons (0-5 SU/1-4 ATS), one thing I'm no longer concerned about in Lubbock in the QB situation. Remember that 47-27 loss to Ole Miss? That's now a distant memory as is McLane Carter, who lost the starting gig to injury. At the time, that injury was thought to derail the Red Raiders' season. But Alan Bowman has stepped in and played far better than Carter probably ever would have.

In his 1st start, Bowman completed 22 of 25 passes for 282 yards in a 77-0 win. Granted, it was against FCS Lamar. But little did we know it would be a harbinger of things to come. The following week saw Bowman & the Red Raiders hang 63 points on Houston. Bowman threw for 605 yards and five touchdowns in that one! Last week, he almost threw for another 400 (397) in the win over OK State. Bowman is now #2 in all of FBS w/ 1,557 passing yards. Don't be surprised if he is the difference maker again this week. WVU has not faced a QB anywhere close to his caliber and thus the backend of the defense will be tested like never before. Texas Tech is #1 in all of FBS in total offense w/ 623.5 YPG. It's a big difference between them and Kansas State, who WVU played last week. Kansas State is second from the bottom in the Big 12 in points per game. 

This game carries special meaning to Texas Tech HC Kliff Kingsbury and the rest of his coaching staff. They've lost four years in a row to West Virginia, coached by Kingsbury's good friend Dana Holgorsen, all as underdogs. Last year, the Red Raiders led 35-17 midway through the 3Q in Morgantown. But they gave up 29 unanswered and didn't even cover the spread (were FG underdogs). The final five drives resulted in a missed field goal, three punts and an INT. Saturday is all about payback and w/ Bowman at the helm, the Red Raiders may finally have the QB to get the job done. I'm taking the points. 10* Texas Tech

8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): The Rays could finish as the best team NOT to make the playoffs, in either league, whether you're looking at wins (currently 88) or run differential (+65). That's not a distinction any teams really aspires to have mind you, but the Rays have been a good team over the second half of the season. They've been at their best here at Tropicana Field where they've gone 49-29 for the year. Not only that, but no team allows fewer runs per game at home than this one (just 3.5). Now, none of this "rung true" in an ugly 12-1 loss yday afternoon to the Yankees. But the opponent tonight is much easier and it's a case of one starting pitcher having "immediate revenge" against the other. I'm on the Rays, who are clearly the better team, in this spot. 

These AL East rivals just met last weekend and split four games up in Toronto. The rubber match of the series, won by the Blue Jays, saw the exact same starting pitching matchup as we have tonight. Thomas Pannone outdueled Tyler Glasnow in a 4-2 Jays' victory, despite giving up multiple home runs. Both were solo shots though and that's basically all Pannone allowed over six innings (just six hits total). Glasnow allowed a home run himself and six hits total in his six innings. But he gave up one more run than Pannone. With the rematch taking place at Tropicana Field, I see some significant value in taking the revenge-minded Glasnow. He was -145 on the money line last Saturday, on the road. The price isn't much higher here at home where the Rays have been excellent. Toronto isn't a good road team either (32-46 record). Glasnow has turned in a quality start four of his last five times on the mound and has a 0.947 WHIP his L3 starts. 

This weekend will mark the swan song for skipper John Gibbons' on the Blue Jays' bench. The team announced Wednesday that Gibbons will NOT be returning as manager for 2019 and his players responded w/ what I'm sure had to be an emotional victory, beating Houston 3-1. But the fact is that Toronto isn't a good team and that's why Gibbons won't be back. They've been outscored by 118 runs over the course of the year, thus playing to the level of a 90+ loss team. Pannone might have pitched well at home vs. TB, but he has a 7.84 ERA and 1.549 WHIP in two road starts this season. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Cincinnati (6:40 ET): For anyone my age or younger, the Pirates have not been that successful of a franchise, save for a recent run of Wild Card appearances. They won the old NL East three straight years (1989-91), but haven't captured a division pennant since. But there's actually a bit of history on the line this weekend as they seek to finish w/ a winning record in a non-playoff season for the 1st time since 1988. To do so, they'll need to win only 2 of 3 games here in Cincinnati. On the surface, that doesn't seem all too daunting. After all, they've beaten the Reds six straight. But I don't like Friday's pitching matchup from the Bucs' perspective plus the revenge angle is one I happen to believe in. While the Reds have their issues, I can't see them getting swept for a third straight time by their division rival. 

The Reds enter this series having dropped five in a row. Incredibly, the Under has cashed in each of their last 12 games. The late season swoon is kind of sad in the sense that the Reds had actually become fairly competitive for awhile under interim manager Jim Riggleman. You wouldn't know it by just looking at the WL record, but after starting the season 3-15, the Reds were actually playing .500 level ball for much of 2018. The recent woes began a long (10-game) road trip, but they did also just lose two at home to the Royals, which is embarrassing. But one edge Cincy has for Friday is they had Thursday off while the Pirates did not (shut out in Chicago). Riggleman is also trying to earn this job on a permanent basis, so he's not about to throw in the towel this weekend. 

It's a pretty ugly looking starting pitching matchup for Friday's opener, which I think actually works to the Reds' advantage. They'll face Nick Kingham, who did beat them here at Great American Ballpark back in July. But Kingham has gone 0-3 in his last four starts overall w/ a 12.19 ERA. Last time out, he lasted only an inning and a third while giving up six runs. He'll be opposed by Anthony DeSclafani, who is having his own issues of late. DeSclafani did lose to Kingham two months ago, but there have also been positive signs from him at times, like him striking out 10 batters in his most recent start. Here's hoping he's able to summon his form from early August (three straight starts of 7+ innings & allowing 1 > run or less) in his final start of 2018. 10* Cincinnati 

8* Minnesota (8:20 ET): The Vikings were on the wrong end an absolute shocker last week, losing as 17-pt home favorites to Buffalo. It wasn't just that they lost to the previously winless Bills though. It was how they lost. Shutout for nearly four quarters, they lost 27-6 to a team that was perceived as easily the worst in the league. Needless to say, when this NFL season is over, there won't be a more head-scratching result. The good news though is the Vikings can quickly atone. The bad news is they'll have to travel out to LA to face the team many consider the best in the league right now, the Rams. But w/ many of the same faces, the Vikings beat the Rams LY 24-7, completely shutting down Jared Goff and company. This time, they'll have to do it on the road, but they're also getting alot of points from the oddsmakers. I'm on the dog, looking to bounce back from an embarrassing defeat. 

The thing about last week was that the Vikings were dead even in total yards w/ the Bills at 292 each. The issue was being -3 in turnovers. Three of the Bills scoring drives were 25 yards or less and that was essentially the difference in the game. A convincing Week 1 victory over the 49ers now seems like a distant memory as the Vikings have since tied and lost. That tie (against the Packers) should have been a win as they missed TWO field goals in overtime and outgained Green Bay 480-351 in total yards and by 2.1 yds on a per play basis. This team (the Vikings) is better than its record shows. 

Meanwhile, the Rams are 3-0 and considered by many to be the best team in the league. They have a +66 point differential that is easily the league's best. But look at who they've played: three teams that are a combined 1-8 SU. They did trail Oakland at the half in Week 1. Arizona is really bad. The Chargers are dealing with a lot of injuries and not at full strength. Speaking of not at full strength, this short week really works against the Rams here as they are going to be w/o numerous players. Two of them are from the high-priced secondary w/ Aqib Talib now out (at least) 8 weeks due to ankle surgery and Marcus Peters (calf) listed as questionable. Even kicker Greg Zuerlein has been ruled out, so field goal kicking could be problematic. Two linebackers and their return man also may not play. Vikings HC Zimmer has been outstanding as a dog and could steal one here. 8* Minnesota

10* Miami FL (8:00 ET): North Carolina was a nice winner for me last Saturday, picking up their first win of the season by upsetting Pitt, 38-35. They were desperate and coming off an unexpected bye due to Hurricane Florence. That was enough to get my endorsement for one week, but it would take a lot more than what the oddsmakers are offering here to get me to take the Tar Heels on the road against Miami. "The U" had its own rough start to the season, getting embarrassed by LSU on national television. But they've since responded w/ three convincing wins, including one last week over Florida International that was a lot more lopsided than the final score of 31-17 indicates. Consider Miami was listed as a 20-pt favorite LY in Chapel Hill. There's actually some real value in laying the points here. 

Last week against FIU, the Hurricanes led 31-0 late in the 4th quarter. All of a sudden, FIU decided to explode in garbage time. They scored 17 points over the final seven minutes, thanks to recovering a fumble and an onside kick. The fumble came from blitzing Miami's third string QB. But the bottom line was that Miami's D held FIU to just seven first downs for the game. At one point, total yardage was 397-10 in favor of the Hurricanes. The discrepancy ended up being 488-187 when all was said and done. I mentioned Miami's third string QB fumbling late (which led to a FIU field goal), but it was actually the backup that made headlines. Freshman N'Kosi Perry came off the bench for the team's third possession of the game, immediately led two TD drives and ended up w/ 3 TD in just over two quarters of play. I expect Perry to be the starter moving forward even though Malik Rosier has won plenty of games for HC Mark Richt.

North Carolina now has its own QB issue to deal with as sophomore Chazz Surratt is now eligible to return from suspension (as are several other players). But it's still likely to be junior Nathan Elliott under center given the offense scored 38 pts and gained 486 yards last week. But recall UNC's first two games of the season, both on the road and both losses, where they scored just 36 points total. Miami has a huge defensive edge in this contest having allowed more than 300 yds in just 1 of 4 games while UNC has allowed 41 and 35 pts its last two games to East Carolina and Pitt. Miami has also traditionally been very strong in these Thursday night home games. 10* Miami FL

8* Under Phillies/Rockies (3:10 ET): This series has been as one-sided as it gets w/ the Rockies scoring 10+ runs in all three games and outscoring the Phillies 34-4 overall. Both teams have been in playoff contention much of this year, but that's changed as they're clearly trending in very opposite directions. Colorado has won six straight to take over the NL West lead while Philly has lost seven straight to fall below .500 for the first time since early April. Since August 5th, the Phils have gone just 15-32 overall. Calling Thursday "Getaway Day" for the visitors is apropos as they'd just as soon get the hell out of Coors Field and never come back. Today doesn't look any more promising for them given the recent struggles of starter Jake Arrieta. 

As someone who has taken the Under in two of the three games, this has also been a frustrating series for me. All three games have gone Over, almost exclusively due to the Rockies. Philadelphia, who is not a strong offensive team on the road to begin with (average just 3.8 rpg), has scored just four runs total and had just four hits last night. They had no answer for Rockies' starter German Marquez on Wednesday as the first eight hitters all struck out, matching a modern MLB record. I'm not concerned at all w/ Philly "coming alive" at the plate this afternoon. Antonio Senzalata will start for Colorado and each of his L5 starts have stayed Under the total. He has a 3.06 ERA and 1.056 WHIP his L3 outings. Over the last seven games, Philly is batting a collective .201. 

Therefore, this Under play almost entirely hinges on Jake Arrieta limiting the Rockies hitters. As alluded to earlier, Arrieta has struggled recently. He's given up exactly four runs in 5 of his last 6 starts, posting a 7.31 ERA during that span. Last time out, he lasted a season-low two innings w/ only 28 of 51 pitches going for strikes. As bad as that all sounds though, I just can't see Colorado scoring 10+ runs for a fourth consecutive game. Keep in mind they've scored those 34 runs in three games despite only coming up to bat eight, not nine, times in every game. Yes, it's Coors Field, so it's scary having to "count" on Arrieta here. But note the Rockies "only" average 5.4 rpg here at home. Even if Arrieta and company can limit Colorado to SEVEN runs in this game (not asking much!), the Under should come in relatively easy. 8* Under Phillies/Rockies 

8* San Francisco (10:15 ET): I had the Giants last night as they were able to avenge Monday's loss to the Padres. The final score was 5-4 and, of all people, it was Madison Bumgarner that provided the game-winning hit in the bottom of the 10th. Now that scenario comes w/ a cost as Bumgarner will no longer start Wednesday, instead getting pushed back two days to face the Dodgers on Friday. But that's actually not a bad thing considering the pitching change will drive down the price and thus it's a lot more "affordable" to go against a bad Padres team in this spot. Casey Kelly will now start for San Francisco, making his third attempt at picking up his first win of the season. 

I really loved last night's spot for the Giants as the two starting pitchers had just faced off last week. The Padres Robbie Erlin had actually beaten the Giants' Chris Stratton, but that was in San Diego and I loved Stratton's chances at revenge here by the Bay. The Giants are now 3-2 vs. the Padres over the last week w/ the other loss coming Monday. As noted in yday's analysis, San Diego is a good fade when off a win. They're not in that situation tonight, but they aren't very good off a loss either (just 42-53). This is one of the worst offensive teams in the entire league, ranking 27th in runs scored, 30th in team batting average and 28th in OPS. The Giants aren't much better, but at least score more here at home where they are now 42-35 on the season. The Padres are 34-46 on the road. 

So while the Giants are just 5-17 in September, this is actually quite the ideal matchup. San Diego is starting Luis Perdomo, who is not good at all. Perdomo's nine starts in 2018 have produced a 7.94 ERA and 2.042 WHIP. This will be his 1st start since being recalled from Triple A earlier this month. His last several starts at the big league level weren't any good as he allowed six runs in 2 1/3 innings his last one. I think it's quite unrealistic to expect Perdomo to pitch well in this spot. Meanwhile, Kelly pitched okay in two starts back in August. He allowed just 3 ER in 10 1/3 innings, but received little run support. Both starts came on the road and one was opposite Noah Syndergaard. Tonight is a much better matchup. 8* San Francisco

10* Under Phillies/Rockies (8:40 ET): These are two teams that simply don't profile as "true" playoff contenders in my book. Both have run differentials that are indicative of a .500 level of play or below. In the case of the Phillies, it's definitely "below" and they are now out of the running for the postseason. That's due to a dreadful stretch where they've lost 31 of 46 games, including each of the last six. They've been blown out in both game so far in Colorado, losing 10-1 and 10-3. Those results now have the Rockies in playoff position, one-half game ahead of St. Louis for the 2nd Wild Card, not to mention one-half game off the lead in the NL West. But I still don't trust a team that is just +17 in run differential despite being 15 games above .500.

But w/ German Marquez on the bump this evening, it's difficult not to like Colorado's chances. Marquez is one of the few pitchers in history to thrive at Coors Field. That's likely owed to his number of strikeouts (210 in 184 1/3 IP), which is bordering on a Rockies' single-season record. But not only does Marquez have 11+ K's in four of his last five starts, he's allowed 3 ER or fewer in 11 straight starts. Opponents are hitting just .27 against him during that time w/ a .575 OPS. I don't see him having any difficulty shutting down a Phillies lineup that has scored just four runs total the past two days and averaging only 3.8 rpg on the road for the year. Over the last week, Phillies hitters have combined to go just .201 at the plate.

Now, for the Under to come in tonight, we obviously need the Rockies' bats quieted down. After being held to just 22 runs on a nine-game road trip, the offense has exploded for 20 in its first two games back home, which is traditionally the most hitter-friendly in all of baseball. The task of silencing them falls on Nick Pivetta, who did throw five solid innings in his last start. He gave up only one run on four hits to Atlanta, even though the Phillies ended up losing the game by one run. While he's not gone more than five innings in any of his L5 starts, Pivetta has allowed three runs or less in all five. Something to keep in mind is that the Under is 45-30-1 at Coors Field this season. All five times these teams have played in '18, the Over has hit, but I'll look for that streak to come to an end tonight. 10* Under Phillies/Rockies

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The 73-84 Mets are obviously not a very good team and have been relegated to simply "playing out the string" at this point. But when Jacob deGrom pitches, they are certainly due more than just a cursory look. deGrom gets the start Wednesday, looking to lock down what would be one of the oddest Cy Young campaigns in recent memory. deGrom's record in 31 starts this year is only 9-9 (13-18), but to call that "misleading" would be putting it mildly. He leads all of MLB in ERA (1.77) and is second in both WHIP (0.938) and strikeouts (259). Considering his Cy Young competition comes from pitchers on other non-playoff teams, deGrom should get the award, IMO. He has set a MLB records w/ 28 starts of three runs or less and 23 consecutive quality starts coming into tonight. 

In 16 career starts vs. Atlanta, deGrom's ERA is 1.83. Sure enough, his record is just 5-5 though. In a 2018 season filled w/ once in a lifetime hard luck, deGrom's pain has certainly been the Braves' gain. Despite five starts w/ a 1.09 ERA against Atlanta this year, deGrom is not only winless (0-2), but the Braves have won all five games. That's ridiculous. While it might seem like "banging your head against the wall" taking deGrom at this point, there is no doubt in my mind that he has been the best pitcher in baseball this year and worth the try. There have been an incredible 16 times this season where he has allowed three runs or fewer and NOT gotten the win. That has to change and how apropos if it did in his final start of the season. 

Atlanta has already clinched the NL East. What they have left to play for is possible homefield advantage in the LDS against whomever wins the Central or West (both divisions still up for grabs). Ironically, the Braves actually have a better record on the road than at home this year. Last night saw them come back from a 3-0 deficit to score seven times in the 7th & 8th innings. That isn't going to happen again as long as deGrom is in the game. Sean Newcomb toes the rubber for the Braves and he has a 7.44 ERA and 1.868 WHIP his L7 starts. Simply put, he can't match up w/ deGrom. The Mets do have a winning record (13-9) as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range this season. 8* NY Mets

10* San Francisco (10:15 ET): These teams played a series last week w/ the Giants taking two of three in San Diego. Tonight's pitching matchup is the lone rematch from that series and ironically it's from the one game the Padres won. The Padres also won last night, starting this series out w/ a 5-0 win. But I like Chris Stratton and the Giants to turn the tables Tuesday as Stratton goes for revenge against Robbie Erlin, who got the win last Wednesday despite a less that great outing. Erlin allowed three runs in five innings, but it was more than enough as Stratton allowed five in three. But Stratton seems to be more comfortable pitching at home than he does on the road and that'll be the difference in this one. Take the Giants. 

It's not been a solid month at all for San Fran. In fact, their record in September is 4-17, which is too bad seeing as they came into this month still a .500 team. Two of those four wins came against the Padres last week and this is a much better team at home. They have a winning record at AT&T Park (41-35) while the anemic Padres are just 38-45 on the road. A real key to handicapping this battle is noting San Diego is 0-4 this season when off a shutout win. They're just 21-40 off a win of any kind. So fading them in this spot seems smart as I don't think their pitching staff will be able to do tonight, what they did yday. We know we shouldn't expect much from an offense that ranks near the bottom of the league in all key categories.

Stratton has a 3.95 ERA at home where his TSR is 8-4. Despite the poor start last week vs. SD, he still has a 1.059 WHIP his L3 starts. Two of his last three home starts have been outstanding as he's gone at least eight innings w/o allowing a run. One was a complete game effort vs. Colorado where he allowed just two hits. That was his last time pitching here at hme. Erlin's last road start saw him allow seven runs in three innings. He has a 7.76 ERA and 1.50 WHIP on the road this year and it's a real wonder how the Padres have managed to go 3-3 in those six starts. Look for the Giants to rebound tonight at home. 10* San Francisco

8* Run Line Arizona (9:40 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking Arizona +1.5. For all intents and purposes, the D'backs season became officially wrecked when they were beaten three straight times out in LA earlier this month. Granted, we didn't know that at the time, even though some of the writing may have been on the wall. The team is now 5-17 in September after losing to LA again last night, here at home, 7-4. They've been officially eliminated from playoff contention, something not lost on manager Torey Lovullo, who chose to sit both Paul Goldschmidt and David Peralta last night. But the club still can finish w/ a .500 record for the year, which is something to play for. While Tuesday's matchup certainly looks as if Arizona is "up against it," I'll call for them to do no worse than a one-run loss in this situation. 

Back in that last series these teams played, all three Arizona losses came by identical 3-2 scores and saw the Dodgers win in the final at-bat. We'd take such a result here given the bet. Last night, it was a 4-3 game entering the ninth before LA scored three times to break the game open. Matt Koch will start the game tonight. He's been a spot starter all year, filling in when needed and in the case it's a season-ending injury to Clay Buchholz that has him back in the rotation. On short notice, he filled in for Buchholz on Sept 13 and wasn't that effective. But that was a top spot as Buchholz was scratched while warming up. The last time Koch pitched, it was in relief and he threw four shutout innings. 

Walker Buehler has emerged as the Dodgers' second best starter, behind only Kershaw, who started last night. Buehler has been pretty dominant his last two starts, allowing just two runs, both of which were unearned. He had 12 strikeouts vs. Colorado his last time, in just six innings. As lopsided as this matchup may look on paper, don't be surprised if Buehler struggles as it'll be his first time starting in Chase Field. I look for Arizona to show some pride on Tuesday and give the Dodgers all they can handle. 8* Run Line Arizona (+1.5)

8* Under Phillies/Rockies (8:40 ET): These teams combined to go Over in all three games of a series they played out in Philadelphia back in June, so you might assume plenty of scoring is set to take place here in hitter-friendly Coors Field. But I've got a different read on the matchup as each team comes into this series not hitting well at all. The Phillies saw their playoff chances dashed over the weekend as they were swept in Atlanta. So they'll come into this series disinterested and only averaging 3.6 rpg over the last week (.198 batting average). Colorado, whose own playoff chances have taken a significant hit over the last week or so, come in averaging just 3.1 runs their last seven games w/ a .192 average. So I'm on the Under here as the total is just too high. 

Yes, Colorado will be happy to be back home tonight as they try and chase down the Dodgers in the division and St. Louis for the Wild Card. On the just concluded nine-game road swing, they scored three runs or less seven times and went 4-5 overall. It was getting swept by the Dodgers that killed them. They do score and allow 5.2 rpg here at Coors Field, but that still wouldn't be enough to match oddsmakers expectations for this one. Truthfully, I have never been a believer in either of these clubs when it comes to making the postseason. Both have run differentials that would normally reflect a team playing at a .500 level or below. So I'm not surprised that they're now slumping at this most inopportune time. 

There's been a pitching change here for Colorado. Jon Gray now starts in place of the scratched Tyler Anderson. I'm sticking w/ the Under here. Gray will benefit from facing a Phillies lineup that averages just 3.9 rpg on the road. Meanwhile,Phillies' starter Zach Eflin has been able to put together a couple of decent efforts. He is 2-0 w/ a 0.79 ERA his L2 starts, having allowed just one run in 11 1/3 innings. Looking at the last nine games from both clubs, there's been just one instance of either scoring more than five runs. Don't be surprised when this game is lower scoring than expected. 8* Under Phillies/Rockies 

8* Pittsburgh (8:15 ET): Of the four NFL teams that remain winless, the Steelers are certainly the biggest surprise to be counted among them. Now there is a caveat in that they tied the Browns, but the fact is that the Steelers were favored in both games. They had to overcome a -5 turnover margin just to tie the Browns in Week 1, but the truth is they largely outplayed Cleveland in that contest, outgaining them by 145 total yards. Last week saw them roll up 37 points, 475 total yds and not turn the ball over once - at home - and they still lost to the Chiefs. While they haven't been able to "put it all together" quite yet, because of that I feel tonight is the ultimate "buy low" scenario on Pittsburgh. I'll play against the line move and take them here in a virtual "must-win" spot. 

Tampa Bay is 2-0 and it's safe to say no one expected that considering they opened w/ the Saints and the Eagles. This game makes it three straight opponents that won their division last year and the Bucs have had to do it w/o their starting QB Jameis Winston. Then again, maybe that's why they are 2-0. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been one of the biggest stories in the league thus far, becoming the first QB in league HISTORY to open a season w/ B2B 400+ yard, 4 TD passing days. Considering what the Steelers just gave up to Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City, this would seem like an ideal matchup for Fitzpatrick and the Bucs. However, are we really sure Fitzpatrick and TB are going to be able to sustain this kind of production? Remember, I took them in Week 1 at New Orleans. But I have been stunned how good this offense has looked so far. 

It's rare to see the Steelers falling out of favor w/ the public. That probably has a lot to do w/ the fact that WR Antonio Brown has been so vocal with his criticism of the team. I suspect Brown is going to have a big game here as you have to remember that the TB defense gave up 40 points itself in Week 1 and has allowed 400+ yards in both games so far. To me, I don't think we've seen a true representation of either team here in 2018. The Steelers are better than they've played and the Bucs are due to "come back down to Earth." Over the last four years, there's been only one time the Steelers went winless for a stretch of at least three games. 8* Pittsburgh

8* Arizona (4:05 ET): The Steve Wilks era in Arizona has gotten off to a pretty disastrous start as the team has been outscored 58-6 w/ the lone scoring coming in garbage time in Week 1. As bad as that sounds, I see some real value on the Cardinals this week. They are catching Chicago on a short week, off an emotional home victory over Seattle (1st of Matt Nagy era). The Bears probably should be 2-0 as they had Green Bay "dead to rights" in the opener before falling victim to Aaron Rodgers (still covered though). While I'm 2-0 ATS taking the Bears this season, this is a rare instance of them being a road favorite and I'm not about to start trusting them in that role just yet. Take the points. 

It's going to be real difficult to sugarcoat Arizona's performances through the first two games. They have both been bad. Last week in particular as they gained just 137 total yards and did not run a play on the Rams' side of the field until the final play of the GAME. It's been almost 12 years since a team failed to cross midfield in a NFL game, so it was a historically bad effort. I suppose the Cardinals could do what the Browns did Thursday night and throw their own rookie QB (Josh Rosen) out there. I wouldn't disagree w/ such a move and if it came late in the game (meaning Cards are behind), the backdoor could at least be open w/ a Rosen spark. But also remember that Cleveland only changed QB's due to injury. Bottom line is I expect a far better effort out of Arizona at home this week. 

I think that it's also important that we not overrate Chicago. I say this as someone who considers them a darkhorse playoff candidate in the NFC. But looking at them right now, I don't see them as being ready to blow teams out on the road, even one as lowly as Arizona. It's pretty clear that the Chicago offense, specifically QB Mitchell Trubisky, has issues. First year HC Matt Nagy is doing a great job of scripting the offense's plays early, but after the 1st quarter, production goes in the tank. Over the final three quarters of the first two games, the Bears are averaging just about 3.5 yards per play. So Arizona is going to be able to hang around here in what should be a pretty low-scoring game. Going back to the 2014 season, the Bears have been road favorites just once (Wk 10 of '16 at Tampa Bay) and they lost that game outright, 36-10. 8* Arizona

10* Under Padres/Dodgers (4:05 ET): Both of the first two games in this series have managed to just sneak Over the total. I wasn't happy about it last night as I had the Under. SD scored a "meaningless" run in the top of the ninth to send the game Over, a real shame seeing as a game that was 6-0 after three innings was 7-1 heading into the ninth. Friday's game followed a different script as not only did the Padres win, but it was a 3-1 game entering the 8th before ending up a 5-3 final. Despite those two results, I feel all the elements necessary for an Under remain present for today. The Dodgers are still #1 in the NL in fewest runs allowed at home. San Diego remains one of the worst teams in baseball and will be facing nemesis Hyun-Jin Ryu Sunday. Take the Under. 

A case could be made that the Padres are Ryu's favorite opponent. He's 6-1 in nine career starts against them w/ a 2.52 ERA. He's faced them twice this season and allowed just two runs both times. One of them, he was fortunate to do so (also gave up 11 hits), but I'm not worried. The Padres are the favorite team to face for many NL starting pitchers as they come into this game ranked 27th in runs scored, 28th in slugging, 29th in batting average and 30th (last) in on base percentage. As discussed in yday's analysis, the Dodgers are holding visitors to an average of just 3.7 runs per game this year. Ryu has a 1.85 ERA and 0.945 WHIP in eight starts at Dodger Stadium. Ryu is a lefty and San Diego typically does not hit southpaws very well.

The only "X-factor" here is Padres' starter Joey Lucchesi, but he's coming off B2B quality starts and has allowed 3 ER or less his L5 times out. Both his ERA (3.23) and WHIP (1.099) are better on the road than at home. His two starts against the Dodgers this year have both stayed Under as he allowed just three runs each time while his own offense scored a grand total of two runs in the two games. The Dodgers' offense can run hot and cold and hasn't scored more than three runs in B2B games in 10 days. They've done it only twice in September. Six of LA's seven runs last night came in one innings, three of them on a Manny Machado home run. They shouldn't have that kind of "cluster luck" again today. 10* Under Padres/Dodgers

10* Under Bengals/Panthers (1:00 ET): Cincinnati has opened the season w/ a pair of wins, scoring a surprising 34 points in both games. I call that number "surprising" because not only is it a lot points - even by modern NFL standards - but this was an offense I thought was set to decline in 2018. That sounds surprising given that they averaged only 18.1 pts per contest, but they were also dead last in total yds. This week, they head to Carolina to face a Panthers' team whose offense I am also quite skeptical of this season. Last year, they averaged a decent 22.7 PPG (12th most), but were slightly below average in terms of total yards (19th). Personnel losses will take their toll here as well. The Panthers' defense wasn't very good last week, but not facing the Falcons in Atlanta again will help. Take the Under. 

Cincinnati being one of six teams to average 30 or more points per game through the first two weeks is impressive, but it also has a lot to do w/ who they've played. Indianapolis was their Week 1 opponent and has a horrendous defense, one that allowed the Bengals to gain 6.6 yards per play. Last Thursday vs. Baltimore, the Ravens' offense did a great job setting Cincy's offense up on two short fields (turnovers), which led to 10 points. The Bengals also got a non-offensive TD in the opener. It's not like their yards per game average is anything special; it's only 351. They will enter this game w/o their starting center (Billy Price) and running back (Joe Mixon), which is a problem when you consider this offensive line is already 2nd in sacks allowed and 17th in rushing yards.

Carolina's defense had an "off-week" against Atlanta in the dome. The Falcons usually aren't very good in the red zone, yet converted all four opportunities into TD's. I had the Over in that game and cashed. This week is a much different story. I look for Ron Rivera's defense to be more reminiscent of what we saw in Wk 1 vs. the Cowboys when they produced six sacks and allowed only 8 points and 232 total yds. But on offense, Cam Newton is w/o his favorite target (Greg Olsen) for the rest of the season. Right now, a RB (Christian McCaffery) is the team's leading receiver. Newton is its leading rusher. That's not what you want to see, even as early as Week 3. Look for an ugly slugfest on Sunday. 10* Under Bengals/Panthers

8* Oakland (1:00 ET): Jon Gruden's return to the Raiders is not going as planned as two poor second half showings have the team at 0-2. Last week's loss to Denver seems somewhat improbable when you consider QB Derek Carr completed 90% of his pass attempts, becoming the first player in NFL HISTORY to do so in a game where he had at least 27 attempts! Carr wasn't just "dinking and dunking" either as he threw for 288 yards. But it marked the second straight game where the Silver & Black failed to hold a halftime lead. A blocked XP ended up "biting them in the rear" as they lost the game 20-19 w/ the Broncos kicking a last second field goal. While many Raiders fans are disappointed w/ the team being 0-2, you have to remember they were underdogs in both games. 

They're underdogs again this week, but given the desperate circumstances, I'm not sure they should be. Far more surprising than Oakland being 0-2 is Miami being 2-0. The Dolphins have played well in both games as well, though it should be noted they faced the Titans and the Jets. Put a bit of an asterisk next to that Week 1 win at Tennessee as play was suspended multiple times due to weather and Tennessee lost QB Marcus Mariota early. Last week, they were actually outgained 362-257 by the Jets, only to feast on three turnovers. Two of Miami's three touchdown drives started on the Jets' side of the field, one of them at the 15-yard line. I'm still not sold on QB Ryan Tannehill as anything special and this just has the feel of a "trap game" for the Fish.

Last year, Oakland came to Miami and won 27-24 as three-point favorites. I'm not sure enough has changed in a year's time to justify such a price swing. Say what you will about the Raiders, but they've gone 11-5 ATS the L3 seasons in games where the line is three points or less, including 4-2 as a road underdog. Gruden is doing good things w/ this offense as it currently ranks 6th in the league at 6.2 yards per play. Was it stupid to trade Khalil Mack, right before the season? Absolutely. Especially considering the lack of pass rush. Fortunately, Tannehill has been knocked around a lot the first two games. I just don't like Miami as a favorite in this spot. Will they be better than last year? Probably. But it's hard to see this team starting 3-0. Or the Raiders starting 0-3, for that matter. 8* Oakland

10* Washington (1:00 ET): Facing Indianapolis and winning the battle of turnovers and total yards, the Redskins still found a way to lose by DOUBLE DIGITS last week at home. It was a disappointing effort all-around as their offense had to settle for three field goals while the Colts scored three touchdowns. Interesting though is that outside of Indy's three TD drives (all of which went for exactly 75 yards), they gained just 56 yards the rest of the game. Talk about opportunistic football. Speaking of opportunistic, the Packers should thank their lucky stars that they were able to escape w/ a tie LW vs. Minnesota. Yes, there was the bogus roughing the passer penalty on Clay Matthews. But Green Bay was outgained 480-351 in total yardage, including a stunning 2.1 yards per play! The Vikings also missed two kicks in overtime, not to mention had a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. 

So Washington is now back in a more customary role of underdog this week and I like them at home. It's tough to put a ton of stock into the Week 1 victory at Arizona now that we have a better understanding just how bad the Cardinals are. A huge difference between Weeks 1 and 2 was how the Redskins ran the ball. Against Arizona, they ran the ball 42 times for 182 yards. Against Indianapolis, they ran it only 22 times (got down early) for just 65 yards. We should see a performance that lies "somewhere in between" this week. I also expect better performance on both third downs and in the red zone, on both sides of the ball, this week. Those two areas really cost them against the Colts. 

Remember that Green Bay should probably be 0-2 right now. They trailed Chicago 20-0 at home before Aaron Rodgers turned in an amazing come from behind effort to steal one. Rodgers is clearly still hurting and this is going to be a lingering issue the rest of the season. He isn't practicing much because of the knee and there is some (legit) concern that it will worsen if he continues playing on it. Another legit concern w/ this offense is the non-existent running game. Through two games, the Pack have just 167 yds rushing, which is near the bottom of the league. This team is only 1-3 ATS as a road favorite of a field goal or less the last three seasons w/ three outright losses. If the Redskins can generate pressure on Rodgers Sunday, then this should be a relatively easy upset. 10* Washington

8* Utah State (10:15 ET): I've been really impressed w/ Utah State this season. After taking Michigan State to the wire in the season opener, but coming up just short, they easily could have folded. Instead, it's been quite the opposite. The last two weeks have seen the Aggies win by scores of 60-13 and 73-12. Now the opponents were New Mexico State and Tennessee Tech, one of the worst FBS teams and a FCS team, respectively. But the Michigan State game (38-31 loss as 23.5-pt dogs) showed this team can compete w/ anybody. They certainly won't be lacking for motivation this week as they open Mountain West play against Air Force. The Flyboys have beaten USU three straight years, all of the games decided by seven points or less. This year, it's the Aggies turn. Lay it. 

Air Force pulled out a miraculous cover in its last game, a 33-27 loss at Florida Atlantic. I had them. A blocked punt in the final minute, which was returned for a touchdown, is what got the Falcons the cover as 9.5-pt dogs. They trailed the entire game, much of it by double digits. The defense allowed 525 yards, much of it through the air as FAU QB Chris Robison (a freshman) completed 33 of 40 pass attempts for a school record 471 yards. Keep in mind that was an Owls team that had just been humiliated the prior week at Oklahoma. I was disappointed w/ the AFA offense even though they still ran for 200+ yards. The team is off a bye, but Utah State has also had extra time to prepare as the game vs. Tennessee Tech took place last Thursday. 

Other than the two wins over the Aggies, Air Force is just 2-12 ATS in conference play the last two seasons. Last year, these teams met in the regular season finale out in Colorado Springs. Utah State blew a double-digit lead, giving up the game-winning TD w/ just over 90 seconds to go. Despite losing 38-35, the Aggies held a 521-440 edge in total yds. This year's team is even better as evidenced by the last two weeks when they put up 60+ pts in B2B games for the 1st time in school history. Last week saw them run for seven touchdowns. Logan should be rocking Saturday night and I expect the Aggies to assert themselves early and often in this one. 8* Utah State 

10* Under Padres/Dodgers (9:10 ET): I was all set to play the Under on this matchup last night, but then the Dodgers went ahead and made a pitching change. Good thing I then chose to lay off as Ross Stripling lasted only 3 1/3 innings and the Dodgers actually lost the game 5-3. That was a 'push' when it comes to the total, but I'm "back in" Saturday as I've got the pitcher I wanted yday w/ Rich Hill going for LA. Let's note again that Chavez Ravine has long been notorious for visitor run suppression and 2018 has been no different. The Dodgers are giving up just 3.7 rpg at home this year, which is the lowest number in the National League. Meanwhile, San Diego is one of the worst offensive teams in all of baseball. They rank 27th in runs scored, they rank 28th in slugging, 29th in OBP and 30th (dead last) in batting average. Take the Under. 

Hill should perform much better than Stripling did. He does have a 6.75 ERA his L3 starts, but that's misleading given that his WHIP is 1.125 over the same stretch. He's actually given up eight runs in his last two starts despite allowing only six hits. Now walks were an issue his last time out, but w/ San Diego's lousy OBP, that shouldn't be a factor here. The last time Hill faced San Diego was here at home and he threw six scoreless innings. Hill is 7-1 (8-3 TSR) since the All-Star break, posting a 3.55 ERA. Obviously, the hope here is that the Dodgers have the lead entering the ninth inning, so therefore we avoid needing to play the final three outs. Last night, there were three runs scored (between the teams) in the ninth, including one from the Dodgers that ensured the Under would not cash. 

San Diego's bullpen has done an extraordinary job this month, posting the best ERA and WHIP in MLB. They did give up a couple of runs last night, making things interesting. By the way, it was a 2-1 game after six innings. So a precedent for a low-scoring game between these teams is there. We know the Padres' offense is bad, so basically all we need here is a strong effort from their starter, Jacob Nix. Something like his last time out where Nix surrendered only three runs in six innings. Nix has made seven starts total and four of them have been just fine. The Dodgers' offense remains "hot and cold," scoring three runs or fewer in 6 of the last 13 games. I imagine this will be a low-scoring game. 10* Under Padres/Dodgers

10* East Carolina (8:00 ET): East Carolina has had two fascinating results so far. They lost to a FCS school, North Carolina A&T, 28-23. The following week saw them bounce back w/ a stunning 41-19 win over North Carolina where they were 15-pt home dogs. Last week, they had an unexpected bye due to Hurricane Florence as the scheduled game vs. Virginia Tech was cancelled. This has not been a good ATS team under Scottie Montgomery, particularly on the road, but this week finds them taking a generous number. This is certainly Montgomery's best team in his three years here. Do I think we'll be seeing another huge upset from them? No. But I do think the Pirats cover comfortably. Take the points. 

South Florida is 3-0, but has had to come from behind to win each of the last two games. A 49-38 home win over Georgia Tech might seem "comfortable," but USF was down with five minutes left in the game. Their defense also gave up 600+ yards. Last week saw the Bulls score the game's final 18 pts (all in the 4Q) in a 25-19 win. This time, it was they who gained 600+ total yards, but they didn't go ahead until the final two minutes. Outside of the 34-14 win over Elon in the season opener, it's hardly been a dominant 3-0 for USF.

ECU has to run the ball the way they did vs. North Carolina when they ran for 220 yards. South Florida's run defense has been very leaky, giving up 274 YPG. Yes, that has a lot to do w/ playing Georgia Tech, but they also allowed 200+ last week. The Pirates have not fared well in this AAC rivalry, losing the last three meetings. They are actually 0-6 ATS vs. USF dating back to '04. But the last time here was an all-time bad beat w/ two late USF touchdowns after ECU actually pulled within two late (and had a chance at a two-point conversion). This is a big spread and at worst the backdoor will be open for the Pirates. 10* East Carolina 

10* Texas (4:30 ET): Maybe things are going to be alright in Austin for Tom Herman. The season started w/ a bad 34-29 loss to Maryland (a revenge game for the Longhorns) and then a ho-hum 28-21 win over Tulsa. They did lead Tulsa 21-0 early, but the end result had plenty of whispers and doubt about the team moving forward. Then came a statement win over USC last Saturday night. The 37-14 win is definitely a little misleading when you consider the 'Horns trailed 14-3 after the first quarter. Things took a dramatic swing in the third when, up 23-14, Texas returned a blocked field goal for a TD. Nevertheless, it goes down in the record books as a top 25 win for a program that desperately needed it. This week, I'll take the points. 

TCU is off a hard-fought loss to Ohio State. The Horned Frogs looked every bit the equal of the Buckeyes for four quarters last week as total yardage was basically even (526-511 OSU), but the key was three TCU turnovers. Two of those were directly converted into touchdowns, one a fumble recovery in the end zone, the other a pick-six. Hence the 40-28 finale, but TCU still did manage to just sneak inside the number. The week prior saw them fall behind SMU early, only to rally back for a comfortable win of their own thanks to multiple non-offensive scores. So as you can see, turnovers work both ways. I think it's going to be incredibly tough here for TCU to "get back up" following a high-profile loss where they feel they should have been a lot closer or even won outright. 

Texas has gone just 1-5 SU vs. TCU as Big 12 rivals, including four consecutive losses. None of those four have been even close. We're talking losses by 38, 43, 22 and 17 points. That's an average margin of 30 PPG. As bad as the matchup has been for the Longhorns, the situation was just as bad last season. They were traveling for the third time in four weeks (and held to a season-low in total yards). This year, it's a third consecutive home game. Technically, TCU is playing for a third consecutive week away from home. (Last week's game was in Arlington). Herman has been a HC for four years (two here, two in Houston) and while he is 5-13-1 ATS as a home favorite, he's a perfect 3-0 ATS as a dog. The Lognhorns defense held USC to -5 rushing yards last week and will be ready to deliver Herman another big win. 10* Texas 

8* Tampa Bay (4:05 ET): It's a crying shame that the Rays won't make the playoffs this year. The ingenuity shown by manager Kevin Cash - when it comes to his pitching staff - has been quite refreshing and would have been a joy to watch in the postseason. But alas, the Rays are facing a 6.5 game deficit in the Wild Card chase and time is rapidly running out. Ultimately, it may not have mattered, but Thursday's 9-8 loss here in Toronto was a killer. The Rays blew an 8-2 lead in that contest, giving up seven runs in the bottom of the ninth. But at least they bounced back w/ a convincing 11-3 win last night. That improved them to 15-4 in September and 6-1 the L7 games. I like them to continue this strong finish to 2018 w/ another win in Toronto this afternoon.

Outside of Cy Young candidate Blake Snell, Cash doesn't really have too many other reliable "starters" (in the traditional sense) in his rotation. So what he's done is turn to his bullpen and the concept of "openers," which has spread throughout baseball this season. A pitcher (usually from the 'pen) is asked to go an inning or two to open the game and then the rest of the bullpen takes over.  It has undoubtedly worked w/ the TB staff ranking top three in ERA, WHIP and opponents batting average. Today it will be more "traditional" start w/ Tyler Glasnow. The irony here is that Glasnow was used primarily as a reliever when he was w/ Pittsburgh earlier in the year! Like the rest of the Rays' staff, Glasnow has pitched well recently. He's off B2B quality starts and threw six scoreless innings his last time out. He didn't allow a hit until two outs in the fifth inning. 

Meanwhile, it's a been a bit of a "lost season" in Toronto, who started strong, but quickly fell off. They are 70-84 overall and have been outscored by 115 runs. Only six teams in all of baseball have a worse run differential and they are all the dregs you'd expect. They are very fortunate not to be down 0-2 in this series and while they've won five of their last seven, they've actually been outscored during that stretch. Thomas Pannone gets the starting nod for the Jays today and he has a 5.94 ERA his L3 starts. He's only made four starts all season and truthfully three of them have been good. But the one bad one (against Baltimore) skews everything. Still, I expect Pannone to struggle on Saturday as the Rays have had no problem scoring so far in this series (19 runs in 2 games). They are also 34-24 in day games this season. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Va Tech (3:30 ET): The Hokies opened their season w/ a 24-3 win at Florida State (I was on them). That win might not seem as impressive now (FSU stinks), but it was a conference road win nonetheless. Week 2 was even easier for Justin Fuente's team as they blew out FCS William & Mary, 62-17. They were supposed to play last week East Carolina in Blacksburg last Saturday, but that was cancelled due to Hurricane Florence. Florence also reaked havoc on this week's opponent, Old Dominion, whose game vs. Charlotte was moved to Thursday. The Monarchs lost 28-25 to a team that won just one game LY. ODU has been one of the biggest ATS underachievers so far as they are 0-3 SU/ATS, missing the spread by a cummulative 56.5 points. It's a big number here, but like Mississippi State last week, I'm willing to lay it. 

The spread for every ODU game this year has five points or less and they've been favored twice. Yet, they are 0-3. Their biggest miss when it came to the pointspread was clearly the season opener at Liberty. Even though they were facing an opponent making its FBS debut, the Monarchs went down 52-10 and were outgained 591-301 in the process! They may never live that one down. This will be by far their toughest opponent to date and probably all year. Given losses to Liberty, FIU and Charlotte, that doesn't bode well. They faced the Hokies LY and lost 38-0 in Blacksburg. The spread here is actually larger, but that's justifiable considering Va Tech looks better while ODU looks worse. 

Virginia Tech coming in off a bye does ODU no favors here. Playing with a week or more of rest, the Hokies have gone 3-1 ATS the previous two seasons. This being such a short road trip, expect the Hokies to have plenty of fan support Saturday and this will "feel" like a home game. Even having to replace eight starters from last year, Bud Foster's defense appears as if it will just fine. They've allowed just 128 rushing yds in two games. Were it not for three big plays, they'd have allowed far fewer total yds as well. This week they'll be facing a young QB who's completing just 51.2 percent of his pass attempts. Virginia Tech's offense seems revitalized w/ new contributors at the skill positions. RB Deshawn McClease is averaging 4.9 yards per carry. QB Josh Jackson is in his second year as a starter and looks a lot more comfortable. This one won't be close. 8* Va Tech

8* North Carolina (12:20 ET): To say the Tar Heels are a desperate team entering their third game of the season would be putting it mildly. Larry Fedora's team is 0-2 SU and off a bye. You have to remember that it was not the best offseason in Chapel Hill. Fedora has some questionable commenatary on CTE. Then 13 players were suspended for selling Nike gear. The latter has certainly has had more impact than the former, but there's no denying that something is awry w/ this program right now. Was losing the opener at Cal acceptable? Sure, they were seven-point underdogs and that was the final margin (24-17). But a 41-19 loss at East Carolina (as 15-pt chalk!) was a clear step in the WRONG direction. Last week's game vs. UCF had to be cancelled due to Hurricane Florence, so I expect the Tar Heels to come out HIGHLY motivated as a home dog this week. Take the points. 

Pitt was a home dog itself last week and pulled the outright upset over Georgia Tech. It was a much needed bounce back for Pat Narduzzi's team after getting walloped by Penn State, 51-6, the week prior. This will be the Panthers' first road game of the year and they were just 1-4 SU away from Heinz Field last season. They were slightly outgained by Ga Tech last week, but did lead comfortably (as in 24-6) heading into the 4th quarter. But again, that was at home. It was a yeoman's effort defensively LW holding Ga Tech to five plays or less on six of the first seven drives. But they also got a big break early, thanks to some questionable decision making by Yellow Jackets' HC Paul Johnson, who elected to run a fake punt from his own 28-yard line. It was stuffed and Pitt responded w/ its second TD of the game, thanks to the short field. The game was basically "in the bag" at that point.

Since joining the ACC, Pitt has never beaten North Carolina. They are 0-5 SU, though all five losses have been by a TD or less. I do think the bye is huge for North Carolina. Yes, they are still dealing with suspensions plus the issues as a result of Florence. But I suspect Fedora is going to have his players ready for Saturday in an emotional spot. Pitt really delivered w/ its own "back against the wall" last week, but it will be very challenging to duplicate that kind of performance on the road. Consider that the Panthers are just 3-8 ATS when favored the L3 seasons. 8* North Carolina 

8* Kent State (12:00 ET): Both of these teams gave up 60+ points to top 10 teams last week. One is now being asked to lay four touchdowns. Obviously, there's a massive talent gap that exists between Kent State and Ole Miss, but consider the former actually hung w/ Penn State for about a half before the inevitable took place. It was actually the second time this year the Golden Flashes have had to play a Big 10 team on the road. They covered the first, at Illinois. While 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS vs. SEC schools, Kent State is catching Ole Miss at the right time. The Rebels were flat out embarrassed last week, here at home, losing to Alabama 62-7. Make no mistake about it; the Rebels' pysche was severely wounded by that result and they won't be "up" for this game, which comes right in between Bama & LSU. Take the points. 

Kent State was tied w/ Penn State early on last Saturday, 7-7, midway through the first quarter. It was only 21-10 late in the second when the Nittany Lions tacked on another TD right before halftime. That drive started w/ a long kick return after a Kent State field goal. The second half was all Penn State. Still, this offense is much improved from LY when it averaged just 12.8 PPG, which was second fewest in the country. That's owed to 1st year HC Sean Lewis, who was the former OC at Syracuse at Dino Babers, and that means the offense is going to play "fast." Consider the Ole Miss' defense is giving up 43.3 points and 544 yards per game. Before you go thinking that's heavily skewed by Alabama, consider the Rebels gave up more yards to Southern Illinois (629!) the week prior, not to mention 41 points. 

Remember that Ole Miss still is facing a bowl ban from the disgraced Huge Freeze era. So motivation is going to be a big question all year w/ this team. I thought HC Matt Luke did an admirable job in guiding this team to a 6-6 record last year (his 1st on the job), but the 2018 version of the Rebels is going to struggle as they figure to be a dog in every SEC game. They still have LA Monroe on the schedule, so this probably won't be their last victory. But it'll be closer than the "experts" think. Consider Ole Miss was down 49-7 at the half (at home) last week. Those thinking it will be an easy bounce back are likely to be disappointed. 8* Kent State

8* SMU (12:00 ET): SMU has had to play two very good teams the last two weeks, TCU and Michigan (both ranked in the top 20). For at least a half, the Ponies played both tough. After a long weather delay, they jumped out to a 9-0 lead on TCU. They only trailed 14-12 at the half, but from there it was all Horned Frogs, who scored the game's final 28 points. Keep in mind though that TCU scored three non-offensive TD's in the contest, somewhat robbing SMU of the cover as 23.5-pt dogs. The Mustangs did cover last week, at Michigan, as they were getting 36.5 from the oddsmakers. It was only a 15-pt game early in the 4Q, but still SMU found a way to lose a third straight game by 20 or more. Back as a home dog this week, I like them to cover. Take the points. 

Navy's last venture as a road favorite did not go well at all as they lost outright to Hawaii, 59-41. They were 13.5-pt chalk in that contest. They've since bounced back w/ a pair of wins over Memphis and Lehigh, but neither was very impressive. The win over Memphis was a come from behind effort that saw the Middies rally from down 21-9 to pick up an outright win as a 6.5-pt home dog. They scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, the game-winning one coming w/ just 2:37 left on the clock. Navy was outgained in the contest, but clearly benefited from a +3 TO margin and massive edge in time of possession. There was also a driving rain during the game that played to their strength (running the ball!) on offense. Last week's win came against FCS Lehigh, who turned it over five times. 

Looking at this week's forecast, it appears as if rain is all but assured. But don't think that means Navy will be able to take advantage again. Yes, SMU has lost to Navy eight straight times, including a 75-31 debacle the last time here in Dallas (two years ago). But last year was a lot closer (SMU lost 43-40 in Annapolis) as the Ponies rallied back from a 34-11 deficit, only to come up just short. One thing to keep an eye on here is the SMU defense, which ranks top 25 nationally in tackles for loss. That's key when facing the triple option. SMU comes in 0-3 SU, so they're a desperate home dog here and when desperate is often the best time to take a home dog. They've actually played three good teams (North Texas too) and a pretty easy case can be made that Navy is the weakest opponent they have faced so far. 8* SMU

10* USC (10:30 ET): If you're into treating teams like stocks, this is a REAL "buy low" spot on Southern Cal. The Trojans have lost B2B games and are laying just a short number in a revenge game. Both losses have come in primetime, national TV games, so the public has certainly soured on them. The USC offense has managed just 17 total points the last two games while averaging 324.5 yards game behind freshman QB JT Daniels. But both of those losses took place on the road. Clay Helton's team has won 12 straight PAC 12 home games and is 25-7 SU their L32. I realize the Washington State defense is seemingly improved, but you have to factor in the opposition when looking at their numbers. USC's defense just held Texas to a 45.5 completion percentage and 3.3 yards per carry. I'll lay the points.

So Wazzu is 3-0, both SU and ATS. But they've played Wyoming (who was on a short week), San Jose State (very bad) and Eastern Washington (FCS team). So take this "defensive improvement" w/ a grain of salt. Yes, last year's defense was the best of the Mike Leach era, but they lost an All-American in Hercules Mata'afa. That Wyoming team the Cougars beat has scored a total of just 49 points its last three games and needed a late TD to get by Wofford (FCS team) last week. San Jose State is 0-3 and one of the worst teams in FCS, including a loss to a FCS school (UC Davis). So this will be a considerable step up in class for a Washington State team that has just one win at the Coliseum this millenium.

Last year's game saw Washington State beat a Top 5 team for the first time since 1992. It was a 30-27 upset (as four-point dogs) and also on a Friday night. Notable is that USC was down THREE starting offensive linemen for that game and also coming in unbeaten following WINS over Stanford and Texas. This script has totally been flipped this year. The Trojans did lose by 23 last week in Austin, but they were only down 9 when a blocked field goal was returned for a touchdown. Like I said, the defense played well. This is basically a "must win" for Helton, which of course does not guarantee victory, but I think he will and cover comfortably. 10* USC

THIS PLAY IS NOW NO ACTION DUE TO DODGERS PITCHING CHANGE! 

8* Milwaukee (7:05 ET): The Brew Crew are inching closer to a probable Wild Card berth, but would certainly like to host that game, if not win the NL Central outright. To do so, they'll need to perform better against the Pirates. Milwaukee's record against this division rival is just 5-11 this season and they dropped two of three at home to them last week. You might therefore deem it risky to take them here, on the road, with a pitcher who is 0-3 against the Bucs in 2018. Furthermore, Pittsburgh is fresh off a sweep of Kansas City and has won five in a row. However, that sweep of the Royals was not all that impressive considering all three games were decided by one run. I believe the Brewers are set to turn the tables on the Bucs Friday night. 

That 5-11 record for Milwaukee against Pittsburgh includes a 1-4 mark when Jhoulys Chacin is on the mound. But the kicker is that Chacin has actually pitched well in those starts, posting a more than respectable 2.51 ERA. This will be his second straight time facing them as Sunday saw him allow only two runs over five innings. While there's been some concern over the Brewers' offense of late, the Pirates have scored four runs or fewer in six of the last seven games. As I said earlier, that sweep of KC wasn't all that impressive when you consider every game was decided by a run, two of them by scores of 2-1. Remember the Royals are a terrible team too; they are one of the lowest scoring teams in the American League and had to play the series w/o a DH. 

Evaluating Chacin's recent record (0-3 TSR L3 starts) comes w/ the same caveat as his YTD record vs. the Pirates. He's actually pitched well. He's posted a 1.091 WHIP and has given up only four hits total in his last two starts (10 IP). Against Pittsburgh, he's yet to allow more than 3 ER in any of his starts. Milwaukee is off a shutout win here (beat Cincinnati 7-0 Wednesday) and is 8-4 this season after blanking their previous opponent. I look for Chacin to outduel Ivan Nova tonight as Nova might be off B2B wins, but he's never won three straight starts all season. Chacin is 9-3 on the road this year and w/ the Brewers being the better team here, this price is justified. 8* Milwaukee

10* Cleveland (8:20 ET): Some are reporting this as the 1st time the Browns have been favored in the Hue Jackson era. For the record, my notes show they actually closed as a one-point favorite against Indianapolis (on the road!) Week 3 of last season. (They obviously lost). Nevertheless, this is a rather monumental occurrence in Cleveland. It's also a must win. I probably don't need to tell you that it's 19 consecutive regular season losses and counting w/ Jackson's overall record as Browns' HC now 1-33 SU. But despite all the calls for rookie QB Baker Mayfield to start and the general incompetence that comes along w/ this team, they SHOULD be 2-0 this year. Thursday night, they get a home game against the Jets. There's a good chance Jackson is coaching for his job here. 

Week 1 saw the Browns infamously tie the Steelers, 21-21. They missed a field goal at the end of overtime and won the turnover battle by five. You may have heard this already, but since the Browns returned to the league (1999), teams that win the TO battle by 5+ are 132-4-1 SU. This being the Browns, they have accounted for two of the four losses and obviously the tie. As unbelievable as that result was, the Browns also SHOULD have won in New Orleans in Week 2. They outgained the Saints 327-275 and led 12-3 going into the fourth quarter. After giving up two touchdowns to fall behind 18-12 (Saints made a 2-pt conversion), the Browns answered w/ a TD of their own (w/ just 1:16 remaining) and appeared poised to snap the win streak. Problem is kicker Zane Gonzales missed his SECOND XP of the game! The Saints then marched down for the GW FG. Only Cleveland actually had a chance to tie, but Gonzalez missed again (Note: he's since been waived).

Clearly, there's nothing wrong w/ this Browns defense, which has held the Steelers and Saints to just 21 points apiece. The offense does lack playmakers, particularly in the wake of the Josh Gordon trade. But I believe they have enough to outscore the Jets. New York was the "toast of the town" after Week 1 when they went to Detroit and won 48-17 as seven-point dogs. Of course, the final difference was the direct result of a 31-point third quarter where the Flyboys scored two non-offensive touchdowns. Sam Darnold, the Jets' own rookie QB, has three interceptions now in two games. His first pass attempt of the regular season was infamously returned for a TD by Detroit, then he threw two more in last week's 20-12 home loss to Miami. The offense was shutout in the 1st half and I have no idea why Darnold was asked to throw 41 times. If the Browns don't win this game, they should probably just fold the team. 10* Cleveland 

10* Over Phillies/Braves (7:35 ET): We're about to find out if the NL East race is over or if it has "just begun." The 1st place Braves, currently holding a 5.5 game edge in the standings, welcome in the 2nd place Phillies this weekend for a four-game set. To me, Atlanta is clearly the better team. They've outscored opponents by 92 runs this year while the Phils have actually been outscored. (This is pretty similar to the race in the NL West between LA and Colorado that I've talked about in great detail). Philadelphia is not a good road team (31-42), but the problem is that Atlanta isn't exactly a great home team either (39-38) and hasn't been playing well of late. Therefore, we look at the total and I see Thursday night's games as one where plenty of runs will be scored. Take the Over. 

Atlanta did record a much needed victory Wednesday afternoon, beating the Cardinals 7-3. All three games in that series went Over, but the problem is the Braves lost two of them. I figure they'll score plenty in this game as they are one of the top offenses in the National League. Among NL teams, they rank third in runs scored, tied for 1st in batting average and 2nd in OPS. They average 4.8 rpg at home. They also have traditionally hit tonight's starter for the Phillies, Vince Velasquez, very hard. Velasquez has made four starts against the Braves this season and lost all of them. His ERA in those four starts is 7.41. He also has pitched poorly in his last three starts, all of which were against other NL East teams. Those produced a 9.82 ERA and 1.727 WHIP. He only made it through two innings his last time out and that was at home against Miami. 

I'm just not sure how much we can trust Kevin Gausman for Atlanta tonight. He's allowed a total of 10 runs his L3 starts, which have spanned 16 2/3 innings. While three of those runs were unearned, Gausman did give up one homer in all three starts. The Phillies have scored either 4 or 5 runs in each of the last five games, but have homered in four of them. They won via shutout last night (beating the Mets 4-0), but that's an unlikely scenario here. Whomever wins tonight is going to have to do so by scoring a lot of runs. Atlanta is giving up nearly 6.0 rpg over the last week. 10* Over Phillies/Braves

8* Under Rockies/Dodgers (10:10 ET): Finally the Dodgers are starting to assert themselves the way I thought they would. Obviously, it helps being a -200 favorite w/ Clayton Kershaw on the mound, but they beat the Rockies last night (3-2 in 10 innings) and have opened up a 1.5 game lead in the NL West. For months, I've been saying how LA is the vastly superior team in this division as they own the National League's best run differential (now +153) while Colorado has actually been outscored this season. That means the Rockies are basically playing to the level of a slightly below .500 team. Thus, I don't see them being able to turn things around tonight in this finale of the three-game set. The price is too steep on the Dodgers again, but I do like the Under here. 

Walker Buehler will look to follow Kershaw's performance last night. He's been doing a good job of that most of this season. Buehler has emerged as a very dependable #2 starter in this rotation w/ a 1.75 ERA since July 31st. He's allowe 2 ER or fewer in eight of nine starts during that span and last time out threw eight shutout innings (allowed only two hits!) in a huge performance at St. Louis. The only time Buehler allowed more than 2 ER in those L9 starts came at Colorado, which is traditionally the most hitter-friendly park in MLB. However, Dodger Stadium is quite the opposite w/ an average of only 8.0 rpg scored here. Only a handful of parks (four, to be exact) see fewer runs per game scored and three of those are due to the inept offenses of the home team. The Dodgers allow the fewest number of rpg at home of any team in the NL. 

So switching venues from Coors Field to Dodger Stadium is definitely huge. Buehler has a 1.62 ERA and 0.787 WHIP in 10 home starts this season and the Under is 9-1. With the home team favored so prohibitively, there's a very good chance we don't have to play the bottom of the ninth inning tonight, which can be a big deal when playing an Under. Colorado only averages 4.2 rpg on the road w/ a .228 batting average. They've scored a total of seven runs their last five games, all of which have come on the road. The only "X-factor" here is Rockies' starter Tyler Anderson, but he pitched well in his last outing, holding San Francisco to just two runs in six innings. He had six strikeouts and no walks. The Dodgers can be "hot and cold" offensively as they've scored three runs or less in 5 of the last 11 games. 8* Under Rockies/Dodgers 

10* San Diego (9:10 ET): This level of endorsement from me is certainly rare when it comes to the Padres. But they've lost six in a row to the Giants and it's "high time" that streak comes to an end. The Padres were actually the bettors choice last night (money line bet way up), but they lost 5-4 after giving up a two-run single to Chris Shaw in the top of the eighth. Remember that it wasn't that long ago the Giants had lost 11 in a row. They turned things around by taking two of three from Colorado over the weekend, and I had them in both wins, but that series was at home. With wins in the first two games of this series, they've now won four of five, but this is still very much a bad road team by any objective measure. Their record away from home this year is 31-46. 

Starting here for the Padres will be Robbie Erlin. While I certainly wouldn't say he's pitched well this year, last time out Erlin made in through 5 1/3 innings while giving up only two runs and one was unearned. He also finished w/ 6 K's and 0 walks. San Diego still lost mind you, 4-0 to Texas. But at least it was a step in the right direction for Erlin. “I thought he was as good as he’s been all year as a starter," said skipper Andy Green about Erlin's last performance. Tonight will be the first time the Giants have faced Erlin in a starter's role this season. While Erlin has never beaten the Giants, the Bay Area native is poised to do so here. San Fran has swept just two road series all season and won three straight on the road only three times. The Padres have gone 6-1 the L7 times after allowing 5+ runs the previous game.

The last time we saw Chris Stratton pitch for the Giants, he threw his 1st ever complete game shutout. It was at home vs. the Rockies and I was on him. As good as he looked there, Stratton still has a 4.06 ERA his L7 starts and, generally speaking, has been fairly inconsistent this year. He still has a 5.03 ERA on the road w/ the team going just 5-7 in 12 starts. His L3 road starts have not gone well as he's allowed 18 runs in just 13 2/3 innings. He's allowed 25 hits as well, three of them home runs and has just nine strikeouts. While those three games were against teams better than the Padres, Stratton just hasn't been consistent enough for my liking. The Padres did beat him in San Francisco back in June. 10* San Diego

6* Washington (7:10 ET): The Nationals are certainly better than their record as they've outscored their opponents by a healthy 76 runs this season (4th best differential in the entire NL!). But losses like last night are indicative of why this club is currently 76-75 w/ basically no shot of making the playoffs. They blew a 4-0 lead - to Miami, mind you - and lost 8-5. The Marlins did all of their scoring in the fifth through eighth innings, taking the lead in the sixth (5-4) and then again (for good) in the seventh. Fortunately for the Nats, the Marlins are still a very bad team w/ the distinction of worst record (59-91) and worst run differential (-217) in the entire Senior Circuit. Washington also has Stephen Strasburg going Tuesday night. Like his team, he has owned Miami in his career. 

Strasburg hasn't necessarily been "himself" this season, especially when pitching at home. Fortunately for him, this game takes place on the road where he is 6-2 this season w/ a 2.26 ERA. Quite frankly, it hasn't mattered where Strasburg has pitched when facing the Marlins as he's gone 4-0 against them (0.67 ERA) going back to April of last year. His career numbers indicate even more dominance as the Nats are 19-7 the L26 times he's gone up against Miami. Here in September, Strasburg has pitched well, posting a 2.41 ERA and he's allowed 2 ER or less in four consecutive starts. He should do his job effectively tonight.

Sandy Alcantara will toe the rubber here for Miami and he has pitched well in his three starts this year, all of which have come against either the Phillies or Mets. He stays within the division for a fourth time here, sporting a 1.42 ERA and 0.947 WHIP thus far. However, I just can't look past the Marlins' general ineptitude as they are just 22-36 off a win this season. They've also given up an average of 7.1 runs the last seven games and as bad as their record is, it should be even worse given the difference between their number of runs scored and runs allowed. Look for the Nationals to bounce back Tuesday and earn a split of this short two-game set. 6* Washington

10* Over Blue Jays/Orioles (7:05 ET): Baltimore's pain was Toronto's gain last night as O's skipper Buck Showalter was forced to piece together a real skeleton crew on the mound due to a combination of injuries and general ineffectiveness. The end result was a 5-0 Blue Jays' victory and I'm a little surprised the beating wasn't even more severe considering it was 3-0 after the second inning. Two of the three homers Toronto hit yday were solo shots. Most of the damage was done against "opener" Evan Phillips, the first of three pitchers used by Baltimore last night. Truthfully, I'm surprised they didn't use more, given none of the three used had ever started a big-league game before. But the real key to last night's game staying Under was Jays' starter Ryan Borucki, who tossed eight scoreless innings and allowed just three hits. Expect a higher scoring affair tonight though as I'm on the Over.

Baltimore now has 107 losses, matching the 1988 team (who started 0-21!) for most in franchise history. Obviously, this team is going to set the record, possibly as early as tonight. The O's pitching staff is easily the worse in baseball as it's given up 830 runs in 150 games. The team that has given up the next highest run total is Texas, but they've allowed "only" 787. It will be a traditional starter going tonight, that being Dylan Bundy, who has had a real issue keeping the ball in the park this year. Bundy has allowed 38 home runs so far, most in MLB, and that's a real problem given Toronto just hit three last night. Bundy also sports a 9.35 ERA and 1.875 WHIP his last seven starts, having allowed 6+ ER four times. One of those was against Toronto as he gave up seven in just four innings. His L2 starts against Toronto have seen him allow 12 runs in nine innings.

I know Baltimore is bad, but I was shocked at Borucki's success last night, holding them to just three singles. It was the 15th time the Orioles have been shutout this season and they're only 3-11 off the previous 14 losses. It was the third shutout loss suffered in the last week, but the O's did come back to score five and eight runs respectively in the two games after. I don't see Aaron Sanchez having the same kind of success Borucki did as Sanchez has a 4.90 ERA and 1.545 WHIP for the season. Last night was just the third shutout of the year for the Blue Jays and they give up 5.1 rpg on the road. Toronto is actually the top Over team on the road in all of baseball (45-27-4) w/ an average of 9.5 total rpg scored. 10* Over Blue Jays/Orioles

8* NY Yankees (1:05 ET): The most famous rivalry in the sport is renewed Tuesday afternoon with this special matinee. Both the Red Sox and Yankees have known they're playoff bound for some time now, and in the case of the former, they've already clinched. The Yankees will soon too, but right now are trying to hold off the A's for home field advantage for what is all but assured to be the AL Wild Card matchup. Given the Yankees' home record (49-26), it would certainly behoove them to earn the right to host that one-game scenario. Entering the day, they are 1.5 games up on Oakland, who will be hosting the Angels tonight. The drive for homefield in the Wild Card Game should have NY highly motivated this afternoon as should the fact they have revenge against Boston for a prior sweep. I'm on the Yanks here. 

Last month, the Red Sox swept the Yankees at Fenway Park. It was a four-game series. But before that NY actually held the 5-4 edge in the season series. Though the Yanks are currently 11.5 games back of Boston, I feel the teams are a lot closer in talent than that. I like this opportunity to play against Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi, who comes in sporting a 7.72 ERA and 1.822 WHIP his L3 starts. He's also just 2-6 on the road. A former Yankees, Eovaldi did throw eight scoreless innings last month in Fenway. But given his 3.49 FIP, I don't see that happening again. The Yankees are averaging 5.6 run per game here in the Bronx, making them one of the highest scoring teams at home in all of MLB (right behind the Red Sox). 

On the mound, the Yankees will turn to J.A. Happ. He's actually been very effective since coming over at the trade deadline. He's posted a 2.70 ERA as a Yankee and was brought over in large part due to his past success pitching against the Red Sox. Over the last 4 seasons, Happ has posted a 1.78 ERA vs. Boston. He did allow five runs (all unearned!) against them back in July, but that was as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays. Last time out, Happ tossed six scoreless innings w/ 67 percent of his pitches going for strikes (including 15 of 23 on first pitch). He's 6-0 as a Yankee (7-1 TSR) and has allowed 2 ER or less in five of his last six outings. Normally, I might be worried about Boston's 34-9 record in day games this year, but the Yankees are 29-19. They're also 15-5 following an off-day. 8* NY Yankees

10* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): This is a huge series at Chavez Ravine. The Dodgers lost Sunday night in St. Louis, costing them both a sweep and first place in the NL West. Meanwhile, Colorado was able to AVOID a sweep Sunday afternoon, beating the Giants 3-2. They now lead LA by one-half game in the NL West. Between these two and St. Louis, two of the three will probably make the playoffs. Obviously, one of these two will win the division. The other will likely be left to fend for the 2nd Wild Card, which the Dodgers and Cardinals are in a tie for, currently. I've been pretty steadfast that the Dodgers are going to be the ones taking the division, as run differential clearly indicates they are the better team here. That leads me to taking them tonight (and probably future games in the series as well). 

The Dodgers are tops in the NL in run differential, having outscored their opponents by 146 runs. Last night's loss aside, they have played much better of late. They've gone 15-7 since Aug 24. That includes them taking two of three from the Rockies, in Colorado, earlier this month. Hyun-Jin Ryu did not pitch in that series, but he will get the starting nod for tonight's opener. Since rejoining the rotation last month, Ryu has allowed 3 ER or fewer in all six starts (2.67 ERA). Most of them have come here at home where the Dodgers figure to have a clear edge. Not only do they allow just 3.8 rpg here at Chavez Ravine, the Rockies' offense predictably declines when taken out of the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. Over the weekend, Colorado managed just three runs (all of them being scored yday) in three games in San Francisco. That was a Giants team that came in having lost 11 in a row. 

For the Rockies, starter Jon Gray has been quite the pleasant surprise w/ an 11-2 TSR dating back to June 22nd. But one of those losses came to the Dodgers (earlier this month). Gray has lasted just four innings each of his L2 starts and allowed three home runs. He's actually allowed a HR in nine consecutive outings, including multiple in three of his last four. The Dodgers came into yday having homered in 23 consecutive games, which was the longest active streak in MLB. While LA has the best run differential in the entire National League, Colorado has outscored its opponents by just a single run this year! That means they should feel extremely fortunate to be 15 games over .500. I say that works itself out over the season's final two weeks and the Dodgers end up taking the division. It starts w/ this game. 10* LA Dodgers

10* Chicago (8:15 ET): Though the results were the same for both of these teams in Week 1 (close loss), I view the respective franchises as trending in very different directions in 2018. The Bears lost a heartbreaker last Sunday, blowing a 20-0 lead against rival Green Bay. You may have heard that Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is a big-time difference maker in this league. Rodgers got injured in the 1st half and that's when the Bears did almost all of their damage, including the newly acquired Khalil Mack returning a DeShone Kizer INT for a touchdown. But then Rodgers came back and the rest is history. Still, I came away impressed w/ the Bears' overall performance in what was a wire to wire cover. I took them plus the points in Week 1 and will lay the points w/ them in Week 2. 

Seattle lost its opener, also on the road, by a field goal at Denver. Don't let that close result fool you, however. The Seahawks are on the decline w/ most of the core players from the team's "glory years" having moved on. It's very much now Russell Wilson's team, but he's surrounded w/ a weak supporting cast and his offensive line is among the very worst in the league. Last week, Denver's Von Miller sacked Wilson three times himself and forced two fumbles. Now imagine what Mack and company will do here. I'm scratching my head as to how the Seahawks were able to keep things close last week, considering they were outgained 470-305 and had 12 fewer first downs (25-13). On Saturday, three Seahawks were ruled out for this game: WR Doug Baldwin, LB Bobby Wagner and LB K.J. Wright. Things have gotten so dire that the team has decided to sign Mychal Kendricks, a linebacker who was just released by the Browns in disgrace due to being charged w/ insider trading. As many as six Seattle starters could miss this game as three others (in addition to the three listed above) are questionable. This is no longer a good team, folks. 

I wasn't totally impressed w/ 1st year HC Matt Nagy's decision making in the second half last week. But the Bears' new coach is still an upgrade over "behind the times" John Fox, who went 1-5 SU and ATS as a favorite in his time in the Windy City. Most of my key indicators are pointing up for the Bears this season and I think they're a lock to improve on last year's 5-win total. They can't afford a second straight primetime loss. Look for Nagy to pick up his first win as a HC here. 10* Chicago 

6* Run Line St. Louis (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Cardinals at +1.5. This is an incredibly important series for two NL playoff hopefuls. St. Louis was able to avoid what would have been a damaging sweep by beating the Dodgers Sunday night. They are now tied w/ LA for the second Wild Card, which is probably their only realistic point of entry into the postseason. Atlanta looks like a lot safer bet to make the playoffs right now as they lead the Phillies by 6.5 games and should win the NL East. But the Braves did lose both games over the weekend and this projects to be a tough game w/ runs being few and far between. That, and the fact the Cards have some revenge from a sweep two months ago, have me taking the RL in this one. 

The Cardinals really needed last night's game after dropping four in a row, all at home. Speaking of them losing at home, the Braves came to Busch Stadium at the end of June and took all three games, the only series these teams have played in 2018. Every game is going to be important from here on out and fortunately for tonight, St. Louis has Miles Mikolas on the bump. Mikolas has arguably been the team's top starter this season, posting a 2.99 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in his 29 starts. The team has gone 21-8 w/ him on the mound w/ only one loss in the L9 starts. Mikolas has a perfect 8-0 TSR on the road as well. By the way, St. Louis has the third best road record in all of baseball at 42-33. When Mikolas faced the Braves earlier in the year, he held them to just one runs in 6 2/3 innings. 

Atlanta counters w/ its own de facto ace, Mike Foltynewicz, who has given up 1 ER or fewer in five of his previous six starts. But surprisingly, the team has only a 13-15 TSR when Foltynewicz is on the hill this season. The Braves are one of two teams w/ a better road record than the Cardinals, but the flip side of that is they are only 38-36 here at SunTrust Park. Foltynewicz pitched well against St. Louis earlier in the year, but has generally struggled when facing them throughout his career. In four career starts vs. the Redbirds, his ERA is 7.13. I can't see the Braves sweeping the Cards again, nor do I see the visitors doing any worse than a one-run loss tonight. 6* Run Line St. Louis (+1.5)

8* Over Giants/Cowboys (8:20 ET): Two NFC East teams that thought they'd improved for 2018 each got a cold dose of reality in Week 1. The Giants lost at home, 20-15 to Jacksonville, while Dallas lost at Carolina, 16-8. With a couple of low-scoring affairs like that, it's no wonder that we find the O/U line so low Sunday night. Also, Dallas is now 9-1 Under its last 10 regular season games and 4-0 Under against the Giants the last two years. But, I believe the number is too low here. I look for a "surprise" Over here in Week 2 as both teams are desperate to avoid an 0-2 hole. 

If you combined the personnel of these two offenses, certainly it would be a desirable end result. The running game would be unreal w/ Ezekiel Elliot and rookie Saquon Barkely. Dallas has one of the top offensive lines in the league. The Giants have a great receiving corps. Dallas has the edge at QB w/ the youthful Dak Prescott over the aging Eli Manning. But both teams are "stuck" with what they've got. Dallas couldn't run for much (just 94 yards) against the Carolina defense, but should find easier sledding here against the Giants, who allowed 137 yds rushing LW to Jacksonville. It would help if their offensive line can get healthier and more productive. I don't think asking for three touchdowns is too much here. 

The Giants offense didn't look much better under Pat Shurmur than it did Ben McAdoo. But it too should start to improve. Eli Manning simply has too many weapons around him. You can argue that Barkley was drafted too high given his position, but he still gives the G-Men a running threat they didn't have last season. His presence was felt last week w/ a 68-yard TD run. The receiving corps was decimated by injury a year ago, but now has Odell Beckham Jr and Sterling Shepard back, among others. Beckham had 11 catches for 111 yards last week and remember that was against a Jaguars' pass defense that was the best in the league last season. The Cowboys secondary is nowhere close to as strong. This should be a very different type game for both teams after Week 1 slugfests. Look for more big plays and lots more scoring. 8* Over Giants/Cowboys

8* Over Dodgers/Cardinals (8:05 ET): The Dodgers are FINALLY starting to live up to their potential. I took them in Thursday's series opener, behind Clayton Kershaw, and they delivered me a 9-7 win. They haven't stopped winning here in St. Louis and now can sweep the four-game series. With Saturday's results, the Dodgers now lead the NL West by one-half game over the Rockies. They're also a full game up on the Cardinals if it comes down to the Wild Card. The Dodgers have the best run differential in the entire National League at +151 following Saturday's 17-4 beatdown of the Cards. That will be difficult to repeat Sunday night on ESPN, but I do expect a lot of runs. Sweeping a four-game series on the road is hard, therefore I'm taking the Over here. 

The Dodgers' offense was on full display day w/ a 17-run effort. Incredibly, it was the third time this season they've scored 17 or more runs in a game! It was the 15th times scoring 10+ runs and 12 of those have come since June. This is a team that has homered in 23 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the majors. It's also one game shy of a franchise record. They now average 5.4 runs per game on the road this season. I envision them having success tonight against Adam Wainwright, who will be making only his second start since returning from elbow inflammation. That basically cost Wainwright five months of the season and he's no longer the pitcher he once was. Last time out, he gave up four runs in five innings. That included multiple home runs. 

Ross Stripling will start here for the Dodgers. He's bounced back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen this year and produced mixed results. Earlier in the week, he made his first start in over a month. He went only 3 1/3 innings, but it was enough to easily defeat the Reds, 8-1. This will be just the third start for Stripling since the beginning of August. He's allowed only two runs back in the role, but note his final two starts before getting sent to the bullpen resulted in nine runs allowed in 8 2/3 innings. Each of his last six starts have come on the road. Given that 9 is a key number in betting MLB totals, I like where the O/U line opened here, especially considering the road team is favored. That means we should hopefully play a full nine innings tonight and that can often be the difference between a game going Over or staying Under. The backend of the Dodgers' bullpen remains shaky w/ the Kenley Jansen situation. 8* Over Dodgers/Cardinals

10* LA Angels (4:05 ET): Any notion the Angels had of catching the Mariners for third place in the AL West has gone out the window this weekend. They've dropped the first three games of this series and are now 8.5 back w/ 13 to play. The reality is third place in the division would have been a pyrrhic victory anyway. But, in my eyes, the Halos are the better team here. They've outscored their opponents by 35 runs this year, playing to the level of a 79-win team (actual record is 73-76). Meanwhile, Seattle has totally overachieved this year (thanks to 36 one-run victories & a 13-1 record in extra innings). Having been outscored by 42 runs on the year, the M's expected win total is 69. Yet somehow they've managed to go 82-66. No team in all of MLB has overachieved more this season, at least according to that particular metric. 

Trying to finish at or above .500 at least gives the Angels something to play for down the stretch. Today, they'll face nemesis Marco Gonzales, who has a 5-0 team start record against them this season. Gonzales is 3-0 w/ a 3.00 ERA in those five starts, but is just 9-9 against everyone else. The team has lost each of his last five starts, a span that goes back to the beginning of August, w/ Gonzales posting a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in the last three. He did pitch okay his last time out, surrendering only one run in five innings, but that was against the lowly Padres. Gonzales' strikeout totals also remain low. Something else to keep in mind is that he has already thrown a career high 150 2/3 innings this year. His previous high was 40 last season. He worked on a pitch count against the Padres and that could again be the case here.

Jaime Barria will start today for LA, hoping to bounce back from a disappointing outing where he allowed four runs in just three innings. He'd come in having allowed 1 or 0 ER in five of his previous six starts, going 4-1 w/ 1.86 ERA, but was facing the same team (Texas) for a second straight outing. Barria has faced the Mariners four times this season and has a 1-3 TSR. But he hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in any of the four outings. (Admittedly, has gone six innings only one time). Still though, a home team getting swept in a four-game series is pretty rare and I see the Angels being motivated to avoid that embarrassment on Sunday. I don't care what the respective records say, they have been a better team than Seattle this season. 10* LA Angels 

8* Washington (1:00 ET): In retrospect, the Redskins finishing just 7-9 SU last year shouldn't have been that surprising. Not only was the team hit hard by injuries, they were favored six times. Five of those six times came in the final six weeks. So they were favored just once in the first 10 games. They won't have to wait nearly as long to find themselves in the chalk role this season, however, thanks to the fact they are coming off a very impressive 24-6 win at Arizona in the season opener. Meanwhile, even though Andrew Luck is back, Indianapolis showed they still have a lot of work to do after losing their season opener at home to the Bengals. The Colts' defense gave up a frightening 6.6 yards per play in Week 1 and a Washington offense that averaged over 6.0 YPP itself in Week 1 should take full advantage this week. I'm laying the points.

Obviously, because of the respective Week 1 performances this line has been adjusted. The lookahead line had the Redskins favored by three, but it wasn't high enough then and it's not high enough now. When favored last year, the 'Skins went 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS. But they won all four times they were favored here in D.C., the lone non-cover coming when they were asked to lay double digits. The big difference between this year and last is the QB situation. Kirk Cousins has been replaced by Alex Smith and that will almost certainly lead to fewer turnovers. At RB, Adrian Peterson stunned me w/ a 96-yard Wk 1 performance, but don't discount Chris Thompson as he had 128 total yards from scrimmage.  The defense allowed just 213 yards and while the Cardinals' offense isn't exactly good, neither is the Colts'. It seems to me that a lot of folks might be sleeping on this Washington team right now. 

Andrew Luck might be back, but the rest of the Colts roster looks to be in pretty poor shape. A case can be made that they have the worst secondary in the league and the linebacking group is weak on the interior. Luck also doesn't have a lot of help at the skill positions, especially running back. That's why he had to throw 53 times last week. It was an all-too familiar story for Colts' fans in Week 1 as they blew a double digit lead and were outscored 17-0 in the fourth quarter. That was a recurring theme last year and I'll look for the Redskins to wear them down over the course of the game and earn a relatively easy win and cover. 8* Washington 

10* Over Panthers/Falcons (1:00 ET): These two teams combined for just 28 total pts in Week 1. Carolina beat Dallas 16-8 while Atlanta lost 18-12 to Philadelphia. With more time to prepare (played Thursday) and at home, I expect the Falcons' offense to resume its high-flying ways that we're accustomed to seeing. This will force the Panthers into a shootout and thus I see this Week 2 matchup exceeding the O/U line by quite a bit. I was a little surprised to find that the Under was 2-0 in this NFC South rivalry last season. I was even more surprised to find that it's cashed 9 of the previous 10 meetings and that Atlanta is on a streak of eight straight Unders dating back to last year's regular season. They averaged just 22.5 PPG at home LY, which seems like a number they'll improve on this year. Take the Over. 

Another reason I believe this Falcons' offense is set to improve this year is that they still ranked eighth in total yards. Red zone inefficiency really bogged them down in 2017, which could be attributed to the change at OC from Kyle Shanahan to Steve Sarkisian. That inefficiency again reared its ugly head LW in Philly, but I believe it's something that will be overcome. There were three drives where the Falcons got inside the Eagles' 5-yard line and they only came away w/ three points. Having to settle for a 21-yard field goal was disappointing, but not as bad as Matt Ryan throwing an interception or the final drive ending w/ an incompletion in the end zone. There are too many weapons on this offense for them not to score more. I suspect we'll see some big plays this week. 

Now the Falcons' defense is a different story. It took a significant hit w/ the loss of safety Keanu Neal (torn ACL) and LB Deion Jones (foot). Neal is obviously done for the year and Jones is being held out of practice this week. Carolina does not have the most dynamic offense, especially now with TE Greg Olsen out, but Cam Newton is a better QB than Nick Foles. The Falcons' D got a bit of a break facing an Eagles offense that was out of sync and riddled w/ injuries. Of course, the same could be said for Carolina's defense, which faced a one-dimensional Dallas offense that might have the worst passing attack in the entire league. Ryan will test them far more than Dak Prescott did. I look for a relatively high-scoring NFC South affair here as the Panthers are 9-2 Over following a game where they allowed fewer than 250 total yds. 10* Over Panthers/Falcons

10* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): I get the feeling that most bettors are going to be on the underdog here. The Chiefs couldn't have asked for a better start to the Patrick Mahomes era as they went out to LA and whipped the Chargers, 38-28. Meanwhile, the error-prone Steelers (six turnovers) had to settle for a 21-21 tie w/ the lowly Browns. But this game is at Heinz Field where Pittsburgh has performed quite well through the years against everyone in the league not named "New England." Over the past four seasons, the Black & Gold have gone 12-5 SU at home vs. opponents w/ a .500 or better record. That's the second best mark in the league. They've had Kansas City's number in particular, winning all three matchups over the past two seasons. It'll be more of the same in Week 2. Lay the points. 

Tying the Browns might seem like an embarrassing way to start the season, but Pittsburgh should be happy to take it and move on. They turned the ball over SIX times and as you've probably seen by now, teams that lose the TO battle by five or more have gone 4-132-1 since 1999. Despite a torrential downpour and no LeVeon Bell, the Steelers still moved the ball last week to the tune of 472 total yards. They outgained Cleveland 472-327. I see the Steelers having no issues moving the ball again this week against a Chiefs' defense that is worse than the Browns and suspect at best. KC allowed the Chargers to gain over 500 total yards last week (541 to be exact) and I think there are going to be a lot of long Sunday afternoons for this stop unit. Week 2 should be one of them. The Steelers were the second highest scoring home team in the league last season, at 29.8 PPG, trailing only New Orleans. 

The last two seasons have seen the Chiefs lose to the Steelers three times. In all three games, their offense was held to 16 pts or fewer. Now, that was w/ Alex Smith at QB. Mahomes certainly appears to have a "higher upside" than Smith, particularly w/ the all the weapons surrounding him. But don't discount the likelihood that the Chiefs' lofty turnover margin of the previous three seasons (+45!) will take a significant hit w/ Mahomes at QB. They didn't turn the ball over at all last week, but the Chargers were busy displaying their usual brand of incompetence. One the Chiefs' TD drives started on the two-yard line and they got another score from special teams. Meanwhile, I can't look past the fact that their defense surrendered so many yards as well as 33 first downs. Love the Steelers in this spot. 10* Pittsburgh 

8* Fresno State (10:30 ET): It has not been a great return to College Football for Chip Kelly at UCLA. Last week's blowout loss at Oklahoma was to be expected. But considering they barely covered a 30-point spread (scored late TD), that should tell you all you need to know about the current state of this once proud program. There was also the embarrassing showing in the season opener, a 26-17 home loss to Cincinnati where they were favored to win by double digits. That game saw a freshman QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson pressed into duty when grad transfer Wilton Speight (from Michigan) was injured. Speight didn't play against Oklahoma and his status for this Saturday night vs. Fresno State is unclear. But what is clear is that Chip Kelly's team simply is not very good right now. 

Fresno State was one of the unheralded stories in all of College Football last season. They went from 1-11 SU to 10-4 SU in Jeff Tedford's first season at the helm. They are expected to regress some this year and did lose last week at Minnesota. But that game wasn't decided until the final minutes when a halfback pass resulted in an INT in the endzone. Fresno State even led, on the road, in the fourth quarter. It's a much weaker defense they're going up against this week, one that was horrible at stopping the run last year (worst in the country) and not showing much improvement in that department so far this year (186.5 YPG allowed). Fresno State's inability to run the ball last week (just 87 yds) really hurt them, but they did run for 239 yds in the opener vs. Idaho. Look for better success running the ball in this game, at least compared to last week. 

With Tedford and Kelly patrolling the respective sidelines, this will at least have the "feel" of a Pac 12 style game when these two used to match up at Cal and Oregon. But it's Tedford who has a team that more closely resembles the "good old days." Kelly has a lot to sort through here in Westwood and seems determined to play a lot of his own recruits, even if they aren't really ready. I anticipate some real "growing pains" w/ this Bruins squad and those thinking an 0-2 home team is a lock to win are being far too optimistic. Fresno State is 19-7 ATS the L3 seasons while UCLA is just 9-18 ATS. Eventually, the Bruins will get better, but it won't be during this game or maybe even this season. 8* Fresno State 

8* Run Line San Francisco (9:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Giants at +1.5. They didn't even need the RL last night as starter Chris Stratton threw his first career shutout, leading to the team snapping an ugly 11-game losing skid. While their season is basically over at this point, you have to figure that - at least in the short-term - the Giants are due for some more wins. Also, as you may know, I have my doubts about this Rockies team. They have only outscored opponents by three runs all season despite being 81-66. The Giants, until recently, had been a pretty good home team. Their record at AT&T Park after last night's win is 40-33. So I'm going to play Saturday's game the same way I did Friday's. 

Even better than last night is the fact we're getting Madison Bumgarner +1.5 runs. Bumgarner has generally had Colorado's number, posting a 3.14 ERA in 29 career starts against them. But he's 0-1 w/ a 4.00 ERA in three starts this year. The Rockies did hit Bumgarner hard in the previous series between the teams, which they swept, but that was also at Coors Field. Like most of the Giants, Bumgarner has struggled some recently. But he still has a 1.49 ERA and 1.012 WHIP in his eight home starts this year. I'm counting on a vintage Bumgarner performance this evening against a Rockies lineup that had only two hits yday. For the season, the Rockies are batting just .229 away from the confines of their offensive-friendly ballpark.

The Giants managed to win yday despite scoring only two runs. Sadly, they've scored more than three just once in September. They are up against German Marquez tonight and Marquez has been hot recently, posting a 1.69 ERA over an unbeaten six-start stretch. But Marquez has never pitched well here in San Francisco where his ERA is 8.79 in three starts. Regardless of what happens in the daytime, there is going to be a lot of pressure on the Rockies going into this game. If the Dodgers do beat the Cardinals (again) earlier in the day, then the Rockies will enter this game in a first place tie in the National League West. I fully anticipate the Dodgers passing them by the end of the regular season. Look for the Giants to play "spoiler" again on Saturday night. 8* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5)

10* Massachusetts (7:30 ET): This is the third consecutive week UMass is playing on the road and the last two have not gone well. They lost 55-21 at Boston College and then 34-13 at Georgia Southern. But both of those teams are far better than what they face this week, that being Florida International, who is coached by Butch Davis. FIU is off a win last week, as a favorite, against Old Dominion. It was a road game (FIU was favored by three) and a 28-20 final, but they had to rally back from 17 points down and there was a two-hour rain delay that impacted the game. It's hard to credit the weather w/ giving either team an edge, but FIU was clearly sharper afterwards as Old Dominion never scored in the second half. UMass is better than what they've shown the last two weeks and I have them going down to Miami and recording an outright win. Take the points. 

It was a 17-0 deficit for FIU midway through the 2nd quarter last week and it appeared as if they were well on their way to a second straight loss to open the season. The opener was a real disappointment as they were beaten 38-28 by Indiana here at home. Then came a traumatic week w/ two FIU players - starting RB Anthony Jones and offensive lineman Mershawn Miller - being the victims of a drive-by shooting. Both thankfully survived, but their football futures are in doubt. Kudos to their teammates for rallying around them and coming from 17 down to beat ODU last week. The key was three straight long TD drives, one right before halftime and the other two opening the third quarter. That took them from a 20-7 deficit to a 28-20 lead, which was the final score. The weather delay came before the two second half scores and ODU was not the same offensively afterwards.

This will actually be the fourth consecutive season these schools have met. The home team has won all three times so far, including a wild 63-45 game here in Miami last season. That was FIU's highest-scoring effort EVER and landed them in the Gasparilla Bowl (where they got blown out by Temple). It was also a game that was a late addition to the schedule. Hurricane Irma caused both teams to cancel games earlier in the season and each needed to add a 12th onto the schedule. Interestingly, UMass was favored by 2. The Minutemen are a better team this year and more experienced, plus I like the revenge factor. Even though they started 0-6 last year, UMass had the first down edge in five of those games. They would go onto beat both Appalachian State and BYU while also playing two SEC teams (Tennessee, Miss State) tough. I like senior QB Andrew Ford and this should be a rare road win for the Minutemen. 10* Massachusetts

8* Mississippi State (7:30 ET): Not quite knowing how good Mississippi State really was, I laid off them last week as they were road favorites going into Kansas State. The "Little Apple" is always a tough place for visiting teams, especially ones laying points, but the Bulldogs made quick work of Bill Snyder's Wildcats, demolishing them 31-10. MSU looked every bit the part of a Top 10 team in the country and those in Starkville that believe this could be the third best team in the SEC were made to look real smart. Given that the Bulldogs are off such an impressive road win and laying a big number this week, should I choose to abstain again? I don't think so. Louisiana Lafayette is no match for MSU and I suspect this one will get ugly in a hurry. Lay the points. 

QB Nick Fitzgerald did not even play in MSU's season opener, something that has still yet to be fully explained. But the team certainly didn't need him in a 63-6 whitewashing of FCS Stephen F. Austin. Fitzgerald had a major impact against Kansas State, however, throwing for 154 yards and running for 159 more. Coupled w/ RB Kylin Hill, who had 211 yds rushing last week, this looks to be a vicious offense that'll be tough to contain. Including Fitzgerald, they brough back nine starters from LY when they finished ranked #19 in the country. The defense is also very good, particularly up front, an area that also has plenty of experience. The spread doesn't concern me as I expect Fitzgerald to complete a far higher percentage of his throws this week against a much weaker defense.

Louisiana has had two full weeks to prepare for this game, but they could get a month and it still wouldn't be enough to compete. The Ragin Cajuns beat Grambling in the opener, 49-17, but this is obviously a monumental step up in class for a team that has a 1st year head coach. The defense has only three starters back from last year, so it's going to be really tough to keep Mississippi State from scoring and Louisiana's own offense simply isn't going to be able to trade scores here. Something else that's tough is former Louisiana HC Mark Hudspeth is now the associate HC at MSU and that gives the Bulldogs a pretty clear insight into the players they'll be facing. But they don't need Hudspeth to let them know they're significantly better. That's already known and will be apparent Saturday night. 8* Mississippi State

8* Nevada (7:00 ET): Nevada has to be extremely disappointed with last week's showing in Nashville. They were blown out by Vanderbilt as 9.5-pt dogs, losing 41-10. Things really got away from the Wolfpack late as they were outscored 24-0 in the second half. Four turnovers certainly didn't help matters, especially considering they led to 21 Vandy points. The performance was a stark contrast to the team's season-opening win over Portland State where they scored 72 points. Granted, Portland State is a FCS school, but I (and I think they) definitely expected a better performance in that second game. Luckily, they're back in Reno this week and facing an Oregon State team that is getting a shocking amount of respect given they haven't won a road game since 2014! Lay the short number. 

Oregon State is on the short list for worst Power 5 team in the country. Even 40 points from the oddsmakers couldn't help them cover in Week 1 at Ohio State as they gave up 77 points to the Buckeyes. Last week brought the first win of the Jonathan Smith era, but it was a FCS opponent (Southern Utah) at home. And the Beavers' defense still surrendered a ghastly 488 yards in the win. The last time Oregon State beat a FBS team was the 2016 finale against Oregon, who was a lame duck (pun intended!) for a coach about to get fired. OSU was a double digit dog in eight of its final nine games last year, the lone exception coming in Corvallis. I know Nevada was only a 3-win team itself a year ago, but this is an awful lot of respect for a Beavers team that - again - HAS NOT WON A ROAD GAME SINCE 2014! They are 0-18 SU since then and have never been closer than a touchdown! Two-thirds of the losses have been by at least three touchdowns.

Like I said last week, Nevada should improve this season for second year HC Jay Norvell. Of their nine wins the L3 seasons, eight have come here at Mackay Stadium. The offense we see Saturday night will more closely resemble what we saw vs. Portland State than what we saw vs. Vanderbilt. The best news for the Wolfpack coming out last week is that they won't have to face another SEC defense the remainder of the year. This is an opportunity that they should relish as the program's last win over a Power 5 team came back in 2014 vs. Washington State. Senior QB Ty Gangi posted the third worst QBR in any start of his career last week and should rebound against what I've already said is a much weaker defense. A "hidden" edge for the Wolfpack in this game is that they lead all FBS teams w/ an average of 27 yards per punt return. 8* Nevada

10* Troy (12:00 ET): This is both a tricky and tough spot for Nebraska. Tricky in the sense that it's an early start time in Lincoln against a pretty good football team. Tough in the sense that it sure will be difficult to get over losing last week in Scott Frost's home debut. The Cornhuskers fell as a three-point favorite, 33-28 to Colorado, giving up the game-winning touchdown w/ just over a minute to play. It was a game Nebraska outgained its opponent, 565-395, only to be undone by an ugly -3 turnover margin. It wasn't just HC Frost's debut that they lost, though. They also lost starting QB Adrian Martinez to a knee injury and he looks to be questionable at best for this game. Nebraska has covered just 1 of the last 5 times it has been a double digit fave of three touchdowns or less and is 3-10 ATS its L13 home games. I don't get why this spread has moved the way it has. Troy is 8-3 ATS its L11 road games, so take the points. 

It's been a bit of a "baptism by fire" for Frost at his alma mater. He's already lost more games here than he did all of last season w/ UCF. The Cornhuskers' season opener (vs. Akron) had to be cancelled due to weather. That made the Colorado game even tougher as the 'Huskers had to play a quality opponent in their very 1st game under a new head coach. They looked good early, but the Martinez injury is when things turned. Remember that two different QB's transferred out of the program once Martinez was named the starter late in the summer. This leaves the very inexperienced Andrew Bunch, a sophomore walk-on, at the helm. Note that if somehow Martinez were to play, this selection still stands. I wouldn't expect him to very effective a week removed from injuring his knee. 

Troy went 11-2 SU last year and tied Appalachian State for the regular season Sun Belt title. This season got off to an auspicious start w/ a 56-20 loss at home to Boise State. I suspect that has played a significant role in this line being higher than it should. But Boise State is a better team than Nebraska. The Trojans righted the ship last week w/ a 59-7 beatdown of Florida A&M as they forced four turnovers and had a 477-287 edge in total yards w/ twice as many first downs (26-13). Turnovers are what hurt Troy vs. Boise State (had four of their own) and QB Kaleb Barker was making his first start. Barker is completing 65% of his passes so far. Neal Brown (4th season as HC) will have his team ready for this one. 10* Troy

8* Run Line San Francisco (10:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play on the Giants where I'm taking the +1.5. The Giants have not won a game in September, going 0 for 11. That's why I'm using the RL here. Why take them at all, you ask? Well, I love the situation. They had an off-day (Thursday) to gather themselves while the Rockies were busy finishing up a series w/ Arizona. The Giants also have revenge here after being swept out in Coors Field earlier in the month. As you know, I have my doubts about this Rockies team. They have only outscored opponents by five runs all season despite being 81-65. The Giants, until recently, had been a pretty good home team. Their record at AT&T Park is still 39-33. 

The Rockies just took three of four from the D'backs in what was a critical series. They now hold a 1.5 game lead over the Dodgers in the NL West (Arizona 4.5 back and fading fast). But the lack of an off-day may very well catch up w/ them this weekend. So too might the pitching of Tyler Anderson. Friday's starter has been horrendous of late, going 0-5 over his L7 starts (1-6 TSR) w/ a 10.13 ERA and 1.909 WHIP. August was very bad for Anderson and September isn't off to a good start w/ him allowing seven runs in eight innings pitched. Overall, he is winless over his last 11 outings. In six career starts vs. the Giants, his ERA is 4.25. When he faced them at home earlier in the month, he allowed just three runs in 5 1/3, but the Rockies still needed to score two runs in the bottom of the eighth to get the win. They won by one run, 9-8, a result that would work just fine for us tonight given how we're playing the matchup. 

Poor Chris Stratton. He has a 2.84 ERA and 0.789 WHIP his L3 starts, but little to show for it. He's gone 1-2, including a one-run loss in his last trip to the mound (4-3 at Milwaukee). Stratton was unfortunate to give up four runs on four hits against the Brew Crew as there were two home runs allowed. But that came on the heels of B2B sharp outings here at home. The Giants' woeful offense is a bit of a concern, but hopefully they can get back on track against the woeful Anderson. Remember they are also getting a 1.5 run cushion to start with here. During the 11-game losing streak, they've lost four times by exactly one run and never by more than three runs. So it's not as if they're getting routinely blown out. Time to end this streak! 8* Run Line San Francisco 

8* Texas (10:10 ET): I'm playing against San Diego here as they've won three straight, which is a streak we don't see very often from them. Sure, there's always been the mentality to "ride the hot team," but that's not the case with this one. This will be the seventh time this year that the Padres come into a game having won three in a row. They've won only one of the previous six times. That lone four-game win streak actually came at the end of August as they beat Colorado and Seattle two times each. Texas is a fellow last place team that also had yday off. Their West Coast trip has not gone well so far and they've lost six of the last seven overall. But I feel they snag the win tonight as I love the idea of playing against the Padres in this situation. 

The Rangers have pulled an overnight pitching change as Conner Sadzeck is set to "open" tonight. Sadzeck isn't expected to go long, however, as Yohander Mendez is scheduled to come in after. We've seen more and more of this throughout baseball this year and it's been effective. It throws the opponent off as basically you to prepare for two starting pitchers. San Diego is hardly the most fearsome offense in baseball. In fact, they are last in batting average, last in OBP, 28th in slugging and 26th in runs. If there's one opponent the Rangers' pitching staff should handle, it's this one. By the way, each of the Padres' wins during this three-game streak came by exactly one run. 

While Texas goes a non-traditional rout w/ its pitching situation tonight, San Diego will sadly allow Robbie Erlin to start again. Erlin just allowed seven runs in his most recent start and has a 10.38 ERA/1.923 WHIP his last three starts. It's been a bad season overall for him as he as a 7.24 ERA/1.561 WHIP in nine starts. He's been much better as a reliever than a starter this year. I think the Rangers' better understanding of their pitching staff gives them a "leg up" tonight and it's also a good idea to fade the Padres when they're on a win streak like this. With Sadzeck "opening" and then Mendez following - along with a "cast of thousands" - (Rangers will likely use a LOT of pitchers here), I give Texas the edge. 8* Texas

10* Minnesota (8:15 ET): The Twins lost last night here in Kansas City, 6-4. They blew an early 2-0 lead w/ the deciding factor being a four-run 6th by the Royals that featured B2B home runs. So the Twins now find themselves in a revenge spot Friday, but not just because of what transpired last night. Starter Jose Berrios also has revenge here as he lost to KC last Saturday. Berrios will again go up against Jorge Lopez and when these two last met, it was a good old fashioned pitcher's duel. When two pitchers are squaring off for a second straight start like this season, I often go w/ the one who lost the first battle. Sure enough, we actually saw that play out last night w/ KC's Heath Fillmyer avenging a defeat from last Friday against the Twins. Same thing tonight, only this time in the Twins' favor. 

Berrios pitched well last Saturday, giving up just one run and three hits in six innings. But it wasn't enough as Lopez was better. Lopez went eight innings and allowed just one run on one hit. In fact, he took a perfect game into the ninth! However, I would not expect anything close to a repeat of that here tonight. Lopez's first three starts this season were all losses and he posted a 7.90 ERA. He's been able to bounce back w/ two strong efforts (also allowed just one run on 9.2 vs. Baltimore). But, keep something in mind. Despite Lopez taking that perfect game into the ninth inning last Saturday, it was only a 1-0 game entering the seventh, which is when KC busted loose. It was the Royals' lone win in that series. They come into tonight having won 3 of 4, but still own the major's second worst record at 50-96 overall. 

The Royals' overall futility allows me to look past the Twins' road woes here. Minnesota is just 24-48 on the road this season and has dropped 29 of their last 39 games as the visitor. But they did beat the Yankees twice earlier this week, albeit at home. Despite an 0-3 record his L3 starts, Berrios hasn't pitched that poorly and he was actually a massive favorite on the money line last Saturday (closed -210). The Royals' win percentage off a win this year is just .333, so couple that w/ the revenge angle and you have a play on the other side. 10* Minnesota

10* Baltimore (8:20 ET): This is obviously a huge revenge game for the Ravens, whose playoff hopes were dashed last year by the Bengals in wild, Week 17 result that saw Cincy score a last second TD. It was a most improbable result w/ Andy Dalton tossing a 49-yard TD pass to Tyler Boyd on a 4th & 12, in Baltimore no less. Prior to the deciding play, the Ravens were projected as having a 93.4% chance of winning and thus making the playoffs. Basing a pick solely on revenge can sometimes be a mistake, but there's no denying tha Baltimore is again the better team entering 2018. They beat the Bengals here in Cincinnati last year, 20-0 (as three-point dogs), and should have swept the season series. The fact that both teams are off convincing Week 1 victories aids us in getting a good number here and I'll make a rare call to take a road favorite.

Baltimore was a popular pick in Week 1 as they were hosting Buffalo. Things went even easier than anticipated as they rolled to a 47-3 win and cover. Their vaunted defense allowed just 153 total yds in the contest. Granted, they were facing perhaps the worst team in the league and certainly the worst starting QB in Nathan Peterman. But let's not lose sight of the fact they don't have to win that big every week. Certainly not here where all that's required is simply winning. I was shocked to find that they've dropped seven of the nine meetings vs. Cincinnati, so the revenge angle here extends beyond one game. The Ravens have gone 9-3 ATS vs. the AFC North the L2 seasons, so the struggles against Cincy are highly irregular. I'll definitely take John Harbaugh and his staff over Marvin Lewis. The Ravens have won and covered both of their Thursday games the L2 years. 

The Bengals were 34-23 winners over Indianapolis in Week 1. They rallied from a 23-10 second half deficit to score the game's final 24 points. Note that they had an 83-yard fumble return for a late touchdown. At the time, the Colts were (obviously) driving and it was only a 27-23 game. So things certainly could have ended a lot differently there. The defense that the Bengals will be up against this week will be far superior. Going from facing one of the league's worst defenses to one of its best will be a challenge I don't think they're up for. Coming into the year, I had the Ravens rated significantly higher than the Bengals and you can bet this is a game Harbaugh had circled on his calendar. 10* Baltimore 

10* LA Dodgers (7:15 ET): Hey. The Dodgers finally beat the Reds yesterday! They were 8-1 winners yday in Cincinnati, thus avoiding what would have been an embarrassing a sweep. They're still 1.5 games back of Colorado in the NL West and two back of St. Louis for the second Wild Card spot. So this is a very important weekend series vs. the Cardinals, rife w/ playoff implications. They'll send ace Clayton Kershaw to the bump for Thursday's opener. I used Kershaw as a big play in his last start, my 10* Game of the Month, as he helped avenge another previous sweep against Colorado. It's the same setup here as the Dodgers were swept the last time they faced the Cards. Behind Kershaw, they exact some revenge yet again in what will be a big win. 

Kershaw is having another strong season. He comes in w/ a 2.42 ER and 0.983 WHIP in 22 starts. The team is surprisingly only 12-10 in those 22 starts, but a perfect 4-0 the last four. He's allowed three runs or more only twice all season. One of those, three of the runs were unearned. The other was back in April. It's eight straight quality starts and counting after allowing just two runs in six innings last time out at Colorado. He's not faced St. Louis this season, but has a 2.99 ERA against them in 16 career starts. We know what we're going to get here and I'm confident the Dodgers' bats will give Kershaw the requisite support. The Dodgers average 5.2 runs per game on the road. 

The Cardinals lost yesterday, here at home, 4-3 to Pittsburgh. That cost them a series sweep and ended a three-game win streak. But keep in mind they'd dropped five of seven prior to that three-game win streak. Austin Gomber gets the start here, just like he did the opener of the previous series between the teams. That first start vs. the Dodgers saw him enter on 15-inning scoreless streak, but he gave up two runs and walked four. The Cards still won 5-3. But they didn't win Gomber's last start, which was at a bad Detroit team. Gomber didn't factor into the decision as the bullpen lost the game in the bottom of the ninth. Previously, St. Louis had won all seven of Gomber's starts. But he's never had to go up against a pitcher the caliber of Kershaw and the Dodgers are still the better overall team in my eyes and the eyes of YTD run differential (+133 vs. +82). 10* LA Dodgers

THIS IS NO LONGER A PLAY DUE TO HURRICANE FLORENCE

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): It's a lost season in the City of Angels (at least for the actual Angels), but this team is better than its record. Despite being a game below .500 (72-73), they've actually outscored the opposition by 40 runs over the course of this season. That's a far better run differential than the team just ahead of them in the standings, Seattle, who has actually been outscored by 53 runs (even though they're 14 games above .500). It's probably too late, but it would be poetic if the Angels were able to catch the Mariners. Regardless, you can look for the Halos to beat the floundering Rangers again this evening. They won 1-0 last night and tonight figures to be far more lopsided. While Texas did take Monday's series opener, they've dropped five of six overall. LA has won five of its last six games. 

Following what's starting to be a league wide trend ("invented" by the Rays), the Angels made last night a "bullpen game" w/ their "starter" being a reliever (Jim Johnson) that was expected to go no more than two innings. Tampa Bay has found tremendous success employing this strategy (the Red Sox did it last night w/ Chris Sale as well) and it worked for the Angels as well. Johnson and seven other Angels' pitchers combined to give up only two hits and had a no-no going through seven. Tonight should see a more "traditional" outing from Felix Pena, who has a 2.81 ERA his L5 starts. Pena should have little difficulty w/ a Rangers lineup that is hitting a collective .202 the L7 games. He has gone seven innings in B2B starts while giving up only two runs both times.

While Texas' hitting has been lousy of late, their pitching has been even worse over the balance of the season. Only Baltimore has given up more runs. Things have gotten so dire that they're actually giving Yovani Gallardo another try. Gallardo is making his 15th start since joining the team and while he initially benefited from some tremendous run support, that has gone away recently. He has a 6.23 ERA and 1.649 WHIP on the road this year and his numbers from his L3 starts overall are pretty identical. There was very little offense in last night's game, but - at least for the Angels - that should change tonight. 8* LA Angels

10* Under Pirates/Cardinals (1:15 ET): Pittsburgh arrived in St. Louis Monday riding a five-game win streak. But that came at the expense of a couple of last place teams, Miami & Cincinnati, and all the games took place at home. The Cardinals are a team making a playoff push here in September and they're the ones w/ the win streak now (three straight games) after taking the first two of this three-game set. There's an all-important weekend series looming w/ the Dodgers (here at Busch Stadium) for the Redbirds, which will likely have massive Wild Card implications. As for today's game, I sense a low-scoring affair. The Cards have scored 19 runs the L2 days, but the majority have come late. Ten of those runs have come in the eighth and last night's game was actually 5-1 heading into the eighth. The Pirates have (arguably) their best starter going today and therefore I'm on the Under. 

Jameson Taillon is the starter in question here for the Bucs and he comes in riding a streak of 10 consecutive starts w/o allowing more than 3 ER. Eight of those 10 starts have been quality as he's gone 6-2, including a perfect 3-0 his L3 w/ a 2.00 ERA and 1.056 WHIP. Last time out, the only run he allowed came on a solo home run. He's also pitched very well vs. St. Louis in the past w/ 42 strikeouts in 40 1/3 innings and a 3.57 ERA. The last time he faced them was in this ballpark and he threw eight shutout innings of three-hit ball. Coming into this series, the Under had been 6-0 in the Bucs' last six road games.

St. Louis is looking to give some of its starting pitchers a rest, so they'll be using a six-man rotation this week. That's why rookie Daniel Poncedeleon will be making only his fourth start of the season here today. The Under is a perfect 3-0 in his previous three as he's posted a solid 2.51 ERA and 1.047 WHIP. His 1st start (back on 7.23) was by far his best as he tossed seven scoreless innings. Since then, he's gone only 7 1/3 innings combined in two starts. He allowed three runs to Cincinnati, in just 3 1/3 innings, in his last start. But that was also the second time the Reds had seen him. St. Louis is allowing only 4.1 rpg at home this season and the Under has gone a remarkable 36-14-2 in the third game of a series this year. The Under is also 9-3 the last 12 home games vs. Pittsburgh. 10* Under Pirates/Cardinals

6* LA Dodgers (12:35 ET): C'MON! The Dodgers, who are the vastly superior team in this matchup, are somehow now 0-6 against the Reds in 2018. Needless to say, this could end up costing them dearly in the playoff race, whether you're talking the NL West or the Wild Card. In each of the last two days here in Cincinnati, Dodger Blue has fallen behind early and been unable to recover. Last night was a 3-1 setback where they managed only five hits for the game. That came on the heels of dropping Monday's opener to Cody Reed, a starter who came in w/ an 0-14 career TSR. I say "enough is enough" and the Dodgers (NL best +126 run differential) HAVE to come through today. The Reds' record this year against everyone other than the Dodgers is 57-83. 

For the sixth consecutive time, Ross Stripling will start on the road for LA. It's also his first time starting in a month. Stripling spent about a month on the DL w/ a back issue. His official return was Friday, in a relief role, where he pitched just one-third of an inning against Colorado (the Dodgers won that game, 4-2). The last time he started also happened to be in Colorado and he allowed just one run in six innings. Stripling did face the Reds earlier in the year and did not factor into the decision. He allowed only two runs over 5 1/3 IP w/ seven strikeouts and zero walks. The Dodgers have won five of Stripling's last six starts overall. 

Cincy will go w/ Anthony DeSclafani for today's series finale. While the Reds have gone 3-0 in his last three starts, it's been no real thanks to DeSclafani. He has a 6.28 ERA and 1.604 WHIP during that time and his L2 starts have spanned just 7 2/3 innings total while giving up six runs. He's been fortunate to get plenty of run support recently and he also faced San Diego his last time out. I fully anticipate the Dodgers' lineup "coming alive" today as not only do they average 5.2 rpg on the road this season, they also average 4.8 rpg in day games. They're 82-49 in all day games the L3 seasons and are outscoring opponents by a full run per game in afternoon affairs in 2018. The Reds are just 25-33 in day games this year. 6* LA Dodgers

6* Seattle (10:10 ET): The Mariners are 35-18 in one-run games and 13-1 in extra innings this season. Their overall record is 79-64. Yet, it's becoming increasingly unlikely that they'll make the playoffs. A -52 YTD run differential further confirms that this club has been more lucky than good this season, but I'll take 'em here in what's basically a "do or die" series w/ the lowly Padres. I've continuously cited the M's run differential as a clear sign that they've been overperforming and feel that I was at the "forefront" of calling for them NOT to get to the postseason. But I'll still gladly take them over a San Diego team that has the most losses in the National League while getting outscored by 139 runs this season.

The Padres split a four-game series in Cincinnati over the weekend. They are actually 7-5 their L12 games, which dates back to taking two from these Mariners in San Diego. The team has gone just 18-37 off a win this year, so fading them in this spot (they won Sunday) seems prudent. I certainly don't have much regard for Tuesday's starter Bryan Mitchell, who has a 6.00 ERA and 1.833 WHIP his L3 starts. Somehow the team has won two of those three starts even w/ Mitchell posting more walks than strikeouts. San Diego has been one of the poorest performers in Interleague Play over the years and that includes a 4-11 mark in 2018. 

Seattle's Marco Gonzalez has been admittedly awful himself of late. But, unlike Mitchell, he can at least claim a satisfactory body of work over the course of a season. The team has a 15-10 record in his 25 starts. It'll be good for Gonzalez to not have to face an opponent from within the division here. He's gone against three straight AL West foes, which may explain the struggles as those opponents are now familiar with him at this juncture of the season. San Diego is not. The Padres are an absolutely atrocious 4-24 their L28 Interleague road games when facing a left-handed starter. 6* Seattle

8* LA Dodgers (6:40 ET): The Dodgers can be pretty frustrating. Last night was a perfect illustration. After taking two of three in Colorado over the weekend (pulling within one-half game of the NL West lead), they went out and lost in Cincinnati. The Dodgers are now 0-5 vs. the 62-83 Reds this season. That can't happen. Revenge for the prior sweep and the fact the Dodgers still have the best run differential in the National League (+128) have me on them again Tuesday, hopefully this time w/ a better outcome. A four-run 1st inning (by the Reds) is what doomed them last night and ended up being the difference in the game. 

I was really disappointed by the first inning and overall effort from Alex Wood last night. He allowed seven runs total, which matched a season-high. Hyun-Jin Ryu starts tonight for LA and obviously I'll expect him to pitch better than Wood did. Ryu did give up five runs in his last start, but four were unearned. He still sports a 2.62 ERA and 1.046 WHIP in his 11 starts this year. Interesting is that this will be the 1st time Ryu is starting a road game since returning from the DL. His last road start was May 2nd at Arizona. He has an offense that should support him, however. The Dodgers average 5.2 rpg on the road. 

The Dodgers "can't" keep on losing to the last place Reds. The most embarrassing part of last night's 10-6 setback was that it came against Cody Reed, whose career team start record had previously been 0-14. Reds' pitching is not good. They have allowed - by far - the most runs in the entire National League. Luis Castillo gets the nod Tuesday, coming off a start where he surrendered three home runs, to San Diego. That was here at home. He now has a 4.79 ERA for the year. While they only have two games left vs. the Reds in 2018 (tonight & tomorrow), I am confident that the Dodgers will be able to show that they are the vastly superior club here. I'll continue riding them. 8* LA Dodgers

8* Oakland (10:15 ET): The mood in Oakland is an ornery one as Khalil Mack was traded to Chicago just before the start of the regular season. So much for the enthusiasm surrounding Jon Gruden's return to the sidelines. Perhaps what the Mack trade signified was an acknowledgement that the Raiders are "a year away." Last year saw the Silver & Black drop down to six wins after going 12-4 SU in 2016. The reality is that team from two years ago was pretty fluky. The Super Bowl hype the Raiders entered last year was pretty ridiculous in retrospect and not something I bought into one iota. That all being said, I do expect Gruden's return to result in an increase in wins this year. The Raiders are underdogs at home in Week 1 and I think a great value against the NFL's new "shiny object."

The Rams came out of nowhere last year. This franchise had done next to nothing under Jeff Fisher, but Sean McVay quickly put his imprint on the team and the impact was immediate. QB Jared Goff and the rest of the offense transformed into one of the league's top units almost overnight. But I look for the Rams to score fewer points per game in 2018. There's more tape available on McVay's offense and defenses will adjust. Speaking of defense, the Rams' stop unit projects to be one of the best in the league this season. They were actually middle of the road LY, but upgraded significantly in the secondary (Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib) and most importantly resigned DT Aaron Donald, arguably the best at his position in the league.

In the wake of the Mack trade, the Raiders have fallen out of favor w/ the public and thus are now a far better value than they would have been. Mack looked incredible Sunday night for his new team, but one defensive player should not have that big of an impact on the pointspread. We're now at a point where the spread is too high. As mentioned above, I expect the Rams' offense to regress a bit this year. Meanwhile, the Raiders' offense almost HAS to improve after averaging just 18.8 PPG a year ago. Oakland was a home dog three times last year, going 1-1-1 ATS. But they lost only one of those games by more than a field goal and that was against the Patriots. While the Rams' defense projects to be good, I have questions about the pass rush. Oakland QB Derek Carr makes enough plays here to get the cash. Take the points. 8* Oakland

8* LA Dodgers (6:40 ET): I'm sticking w/ the Dodgers here (taking them a fourth straight day) as they continue their charge to the top of the NL West. By taking two of three in Colorado over the weekend, LA pulled within one-half game of the division lead. Speaking to this club's likely ascendance is the fact they continue to have the NL's best run differential (now +132). The team they are chasing (Colorado) has a -11 run differential for the year. Now the Dodgers are in Cincinnati to exact some revenge against a Reds team that actually swept them in a four-game set (at Chavez Ravine!) back in May. You know what they say about payback. 

The Reds could only manage a split of a four-game series w/ San Diego here at home over the weekend. Overall, they've now dropped 13 of their last 18 games. Needless to say, this will be a big step up in class after facing lowly San Diego. Cody Reed will get the start Monday and the Reds have yet to win w/ him on the mound. He has an 0-3 team start record, having posted a 7.10 ERA and 1.736 WHIP. Reed's most recent start saw him give up six runs. But what's truly remarkable about Reed is his long-term team start record. Going back to his initial call-up in 2016, the Reds have NEVER won w/ Reed on the hill, going 0-14 all-time! 

Now we'll see if Dave Roberts' decision to shake up his rotation pays off. Sunday saw Rich Hill get the nod. It was initially supposed to be Alex Wood, but the Dodgers skipper pulled the old "switcheroo" citing Wood's track record here at Great American Ballpark. Hill took care of business Sunday afternoon. Now it's Wood's turn to make his manager look good. Wood has looked good himself of late, posting a 1.86 ERA his L7 starts. He's allowed just one run in his L12 innings of work. As I said before, the idea behind Roberts flip-flopping Hill & Wood in the rotation is that Wood has always pitched well in this park. He has a 1.32 career ERA here in Cincy. The Dodgers are the superior team here. 8* LA Dodgers

8* Chicago (8:20 ET): The Bears were a team I'd already 'earmarked' for improvement and then they went out and traded for Khalil Mack, one of the top defensive players in the league. One of the smartest moves in the short tenure of 1st year HC Matt Nagy was to retain DC Vic Fangio. There weren't many positives from the John Fox era in Chicago, but Fangio's defenses were generally among them. On the offensive side of the ball, the hope is that Nagy can do for QB Mitchell Trubisky what Sean McVay did last year for Jared Goff. That might be an unrealistic expectation, but the Bears will be better in 2018 and I think it starts w/ a competitive showing against the rival Packers. Take the points. 

With Aaron Rodgers back in the fold, the expectation is for the Packers to win a lot more games this year. Rodgers broke his collarbone in Week 6 last year and that was basically it for the rest of the team. They lost 8 of their final 11 games to finish below .500 for the 1st time since Rodgers' 1st year as a starter. Rodgers' return by itself makes the Pack a strong bet to return to the playoffs this year. But his supporting cast isn't what it used to be. Also keep in mind that this team has not won more than 10 games since 2014. Rodgers' favorite wideout, Jordy Nelson, is gone. Although Nelson was aging and may not be as missed as anticipated. Even w/o Rodgers, the Pack still swept the Bears last season. But as I'm about to discuss, this is a much improved Chicago team in 2018. 

The offense surrounding the second year QB Trubisky is a lot better this year. I really like the Bears' backfield tandem of Howard and Cohen. Receiver had been a problem for years, but was addressed in the offseason w/ Allan Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and tight end Trey Burton all coming in. The defense was already good before Mack's arrival and will be even better than it was last year. I think it would be foolish to expect Mack to dominate in this game, but he is more than capable of making an impact. The Bears have just TWO road wins the last two seasons, but there's a real "positive vibe" surrounding this team entering 2018 and I think they're capable of pulling an upset here. 8* Chicago

10* LA Chargers (4:05 ET): The AFC West is wide open this year. It's a division that's largely been dominated by Kansas City since Andy Reid's arrival, the last two years in particular. Over the last two seasons, the Chiefs are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS vs. the rest of the division. But they have zero playoff wins to show for it. In fact, the Chiefs still have just ONE playoff win since Joe Montana retired a quarter century ago. That was three years ago against a Houston team that was quarterbacked by Brian Hoyer and Brandon Weeden. No longer content with going 12-4 and being "one and done" in the playoffs, the Chiefs have made a major move at QB this season, jettisoning Alex Smith in favor of last year's #1 draft choice Patrick Mahomes.

With the AFC West more wide open this year, the Chargers seem to have stepped into the favorite role. This was a very good team last year. They actually had a better point differential than Kansas City. But the same old issues plagued the Lightning Bolts, namely an inability to win close games. They dug themselves a huge hole last year, starting the Anthony Lynn era 0-4 w/ three of the losses coming by three points or fewer. From that point on, they went 9-3 SU (w/ one of the losses in OT), but it was "too little, too late." There's no doubt in my mind that this was one of the six best teams in the AFC last year (certainly better than Buffalo), they just didn't get a chance to show it. While there were two significant injuries sustained during camp - TE Hunter Henry and DB Justin Verrett - I believe this team has the tools to win the AFC West this year. 

The change at QB for the Chiefs is an interesting one. Mahomes clearly has a bigger upside than Smith. But something to watch will be turnovers. The Chiefs had an outrageous +45 TO margin the L3 seasons, thanks in large part to Smith's ability to take care of the football. Mahomes will not be as cautious as Smith was and I believe that's going to affect the team in the TO department. Meanwhile, Philip Rivers will be entering his 15th season as the Chargers QB and I believe this could be his best offense to work with since the days of LaDanian Tomlinson. He has RB Melvin Gordon, WR Keenan Allen and TE Antonio Gates is back to replace the injured Henry. Last year, the Chargers offense was 4th in total yards, but only 13th in scoring. The Chiefs defense isn't what it used to be and I see LA outscoring them in this one. 10* LA Chargers

10* Over Chiefs/Chargers (4:05 ET): The AFC West is wide open this year. It's a division that's largely been dominated by Kansas City since Andy Reid's arrival, the last two years in particular. Over the last two seasons, the Chiefs are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS vs. the rest of the division. But they have zero playoff wins to show for it. In fact, the Chiefs still have just ONE playoff win since Joe Montana retired a quarter century ago. That was three years ago against a Houston team that was quarterbacked by Brian Hoyer and Brandon Weeden. No longer content with going 12-4 and being "one and done" in the playoffs, the Chiefs have made a major move at QB this season, jettisoning Alex Smith in favor of last year's #1 draft choice Patrick Mahomes.

With the AFC West more wide open this year, the Chargers seem to have stepped into the favorite role. This was a very good team last year. They actually had a better point differential than Kansas City. But the same old issues plagued the Lightning Bolts, namely an inability to win close games. They dug themselves a huge hole last year, starting the Anthony Lynn era 0-4 w/ three of the losses coming by three points or fewer. From that point on, they went 9-3 SU (w/ one of the losses in OT), but it was "too little, too late." There's no doubt in my mind that this was one of the six best teams in the AFC last year (certainly better than Buffalo), they just didn't get a chance to show it. While there were two significant injuries sustained during camp - TE Hunter Henry and DB Justin Verrett - I believe this team has the tools to win the AFC West this year. 

Looking at last year's numbers, the Chargers were one of the top Under teams. The Under went 12-4 in their games as they allowed just 17.0 PPG, one of the lowest figures in the league (3rd). But they were actually 15th in yards allowed, so I expect some regression in the points allowed category this year. The same thing is true for the Chiefs, although it could be a bigger problem. While they ranked 15th in scoring defense, they were 28th in yards allowed. The difference here could end up being the fact that a Chargers offense that was 13th in scoring last year was also 4th in total yards. I'd "hold onto my hat" for this one as we should see plenty of scoring with the gunslingers Rivers and Mahomes leading the two offenses. Also Mahomes is likely to turn the ball over more times than his predecessor Smith, so don't rule out a defensive touchdown for Los Angeles here. 10* Over Chiefs/Chargers

10* LA Dodgers (3:10 ET): After pulling within a half-game of the Rockies on Friday, the Dodgers lost last night here in Colorado, 4-2. A ninth inning rally fell short when Yasmani Grandal struck out to end the ninth. As I've written each of the last two days, the Dodgers are - pretty clearly - the better of these two teams.  Just to refresh, the Dodgers have outscored their opponents by a NL-best 129 runs this season. Meanwhile, Colorado has been outscored in 2018. The Dodgers came into this series w/ revenge after being swept here at Coors Field last month. An offense that we know can score (5.2 rpg on the road) should perform better than three runs or less in seven of the last nine games, given the ballpark they are playing in today. I'm sticking w/ the road team Sunday. 

Rich Hill starts today for the Dodgers. His last three starts have all come at home and he got a lot of run support in two of them. Last time out, he allowed four runs in five innings, but it hardly mattered w/ the Dodgers putting 11 runs of their own on the board. Hill has never beaten the Rockies, but neither has Alex Wood, who was originally going to start Sunday. What Hill has done, however, is post a 23-2 KW rate his L3 starts. He did pitch relatively well here at Coors last month, giving up just three runs (on four hits) over six innings. One of the runs was unearned. Unfortunately, the Dodgers went down 4-3 that day. But they are still 6-3 in Wood's L9 starts overall. The team is also a perfect 4-0 off its previous four losses. 

Someone else who has not experienced a lot of success here at Coors Field is Rockies' starter Tyler Anderson. Quite frankly, Anderson hasn't experienced much success anywhere over past few months. The team actually did win his last outing, 9-8 over the Giants, but had been 0-7 his previous seven w/ Anderson posting an ugly 8.31 ERA. The last time Anderson actually won a decision was the 4th of July. It's been 10 starts w/o one. The Dodgers have won 22 of their last 29 games facing a southpaw starters and I've again got to point out that Colorado has been outscored at home this season. I am steadfast that the Dodgers are going to win the NL West and to do so, they probably need to win this game. 10* LA Dodgers 

8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): For a team that went 0-16 SU last year and has just 1 win in its last 32 games, the Browns sure seem to be getting a lot of "love" from bettors heading into Week 1. How could this be? After all, they are playing the Steelers, a team that - to put it mildly - has had their number through the years. Since returning to the league in 1999, the Cleveland franchise has beaten the Steelers only six times in 40 tries. Just three of those wins have come since 2003. Then there's the fact the Browns have not won a season opener since 2004! That's also the ONLY time since '99 they won a season opener as they are 1-18 SU overall w/ 14 of those losses at home. They've lost 13 straight. Why will this year be any different?

Well, for starters, the Browns officially hit 'rock bottom' last year, becoming just the second team to ever go winless in a 16-game regular season. Despite my concerns over the coaching staff (not a fan of Hue Jackson), they are a LOCK to improve in 2018. Consider that they were 0-6 SU in games decided by seven points or less last season and had a -28 turnover margin. Those numbers will be near impossible to repeat. There's been a major upgrade at QB as well. Baker Mayfield was the #1 overall pick in April, but for now it's Tyrod Taylor starting under center. Taylor will cut way down on the number of turnovers. He was more than serviceable LY for a Buffalo team that made the playoffs. The overall talent on hand last year was not indicative of a team that should have gone winless. There has been across the board improvement with the roster coming into '18. 

While I understand it may be difficult to put your faith in Cleveland here, this play is just as much about fading Pittsburgh. The Steelers were lucky to win 13 games LY as they had a league-high eight victories by one score. They were then outclassed in the playoffs, at home, by Jacksonville. They enter this season w/ a major question mark at RB w/ LeVeon Bell continuing to hold out. Unless something drastic changes in the next 48 hrs, Bell will not play Sunday. WR Antonio Brown is also banged up. There are question marks w/ this defense as Ryan Shazier's future remains unclear. Then there is the fact that the Steelers have been a questionable road favorite for years under Mike Tomlin. They are on a 5-13 ATS slide laying four or more points away from home w/ seven outright losses. Ben Roethlisberger's TD-INT ratio has suffered greatly in these games. 8* Cleveland 

8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): New Orleans is getting a lot of love coming into this season. Many have them on their short list of Super Bowl contenders. But I have questions about their ability to duplicate last year's success. First off, the defense made a major leap in 2017, going from 31st to 10th in points allowed. After such a jump takes place, we typically see some sort of regression the following season. I do believe we'll see the Saints give up more yards and points than they did last year. Furthermore, can the Saints possibly be as dominant as they were last year when - at one point - they delivered eight straight wins, seven of them coming by eight points or more? I think not. This is a huge spread for Week 1 and I'll take the points w/ the Buccaneeers. 

New Orleans started last year 0-2, getting blown out by both Minnesota and New England. The usual defensive issues were present and another 7-9 SU season seemed inevitable. But then came the aformentioned win streak. They were just the 13th team since the merger to win seven straight games by more than a touchdown. That's impressive, but the majority of their victims were bad teams. They finished the year 4-4 over the final eight games, including playoffs. We all remember how the playoffs ended w/ the memorable finish in Minnesota. In addition to the likely defensive regression I mentioned above, the Saints will also have to deal w/ the absence of RB Mark Ingram for the first four weeks (suspended). 

Ingram isn't the only key player suspended for this game. Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston will miss the first three games due to violating the league's personal conduct policy. But Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't that big of a downgrade from Winston. The schedule won't be easy these first three games as the Bucs will play three division champs from LY (also the Steelers & Eagles), but nevertheless I have the team improving in 2018. They overachieved two years ago in getting to 9-7 SU, but were a disappointment LY at 5-11. Look for them to finish somewhere in between this year. There have been major upgrades along the defensive line and that's where they could cause problems for Drew Brees and company. With no Ingram, I have my doubts about LY's Offensive Rookie of the Year Alvin Kamara being an every-down back. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Arizona State (10:45 ET): The Herm Edwards hire has been met w/ great skepticism, at least outside of Tempe. Herm has been away from coaching for awhile (10 years!) and his last involvement w/ the college game was 1989 as a defensive coordinator @ San Jose State! But the Sun Devils' debut under Edwards definitely saw them "play to win the game" as they blew out UTSA 49-7. However, Edwards didn't seem all that impressed. "I didn't like what I was watching a lot of times," he said afterwards. I like that kind of reaction from a new HC despite holding the opposition to 220 total yards (lots of tackles for loss) and the QB turning in one of his better career performances. On the flip side, Michigan State did not look good in its season opener, barely escaping Utah State at home. 

There's no doubt that the respective results last week have contributed to this line shrinking some. But it was probably too high to begin with. Tempe is not a fun place to play if you're the visitor, especially in these late night affairs. Just ask Washington, who came in here ranked #5 last year (and unbeaten) and lost 13-7. The Huskies weren't the only ranked team to fall at Sun Devil Stadium last year. Two weeks prior, the same thing happened to Oregon. The Sun Devils are 5-2 ATS as a home dog the L2 seasons, pulling FOUR outright upsets. QB Wilkins, now a senior, threw 4 TD passes last week (career-high) and for 237 yds w/o an interception. Given how Utah State was able to move the ball last week (344 total yds) on the Spartans, I expect the Sun Devils to be able to do the same. 

Michigan State trailed Utah State 31-30 w/ just under five minutes to go. They then drove the ball 75 yards for a TD to avoid the upset. But throughout the game, they never really could pull away from the Aggies. Sure, a pick six heavily contributed to Utah State getting back in that game. But I wasn't all that impressed w/ Sparty QB Brian Lewerke overall. Over the past three seasons, Michigan State is a horrific 1-8 ATS as a road favorite. The lone cover came in last year's reg season finale at Rutgers. There have been five outright upsets in that stretch, granted three of them coming in that "lost" 3-9 season of 2016. But still, this spot just screams "potential upset" and I'll ride Coach Herm in what could be a statement game for him. 8* Arizona State 

10* LA Dodgers (8:10 ET): The Dodgers came out and made a statement win last night, beating the Rockies 4-2 behind six strong innings from Clayton Kershaw. That result pulls them within one-half game of the Rockies for the NL West lead. But, make no mistake about it, the Dodgers are clearly the better team. I made that point abundantly clear in yday's analysis when I made LA my 10* Game of the Month. Just to refresh, the Dodgers have outscored their opponents by a NL-best 131 runs this season. Meanwhile, Colorado has been outscored by 10 runs in 2018. The Dodgers came into this series w/ revenge after being swept here at Coors Field last month. An offense that we know can score (5.2 rpg on the road) should have no problems doing so this weekend. 

The Dodgers were able to lean on Kershaw last night. Tonight, it's Walker Buehler getting the start. While far less heralded, Buehler has pitched very well this season. In fact, his ERA (2.52) and WHIP (0.974) are comparable to Kershaw! Bueheler threw seven shutout innings here at Coors last month, only for the Dodgers to still lose 3-2. Here's his chance at revenge as he'll be up against the same pitcher he faced on August 11th, that being Kyle Freeland. Note Buehler was in position to win that game as he exited w/ a 2-0 lead. (Bullpen blew the game). Freeland allowed two runs and six hits in that game. He now has a 3.90 ERA in six career starts vs. the Dodgers.

While the bullpen might still be an issue for LA this weekend (closer Kenley Jansen is out), Kenta Maeda showed he's able to step into the closer's role as he got the the final two outs last night. The Dodgers did use six pitchers on Friday, but Colorado used seven as starter Jon Gray was ineffective. Freeland has actually pitched remarkably well here at Coors this season and has a 19-9 TSR overall. However, I keep coming back to the fact that the Dodgers are simply the much better team here. Run differential is a far better predictor of future outcomes than a team's actual won-loss record, in my opinion. That firm belief leaves no doubt in my mind as to who is going to win this division. 10* LA Dodgers

10* Texas A&M (7:00 ET): Under the bright lights at College Station, I believe A&M is set to shine in their first real test under HC Jimbo Fisher. Fisher is of course quite familiar w/ the opponent, Clemson, having served all those years on the Florida State sideline. Fisher's FSU teams went 4-4 against Clemson, though things had turned near the end of his tenure in Tallahassee w/ the Noles losing each of the L3 years. Still, Fisher knows what he's up against Saturday night and while that's one of the best teams in all of college football, look for the Aggies to stay within this generous number. Even in the dying days of the Kevin Sumlin era in College Station, A&M still managed to go 2-0 ATS as DD home dogs last year. Before that, it had been some time since they'd been getting 10 or more here at Kyle Field. Take the points.

Clemson is on everyone's shortlist for the College Football Playoff and why wouldn't they be seeing as they've gotten there each of the last three seasons. They enter 2018 w/ a bit of controversy on their hands though as they are playing two QB's - Kelly Bryant and Trevor Lawrence. Said Dabo Swinney, "We definitely will play both quarterbacks," Swinney said. "There's no doubt about that. Nothing happened [against Furman] to warrant not playing both those guys." It wasn't a big deal against overmatched Furman, but playing two QB's can be an unneeded distraction. That's why Nick Saban quickly dealt away the idea down in Tuscaloosa. This just seems like a really large number to lay on the road, especially in an unfamiliar setting. 

A&M's first game went about as easy as Clemson's did. The Aggies won Fisher's debut 59-7 over Northwestern State w/ a 758-251 edge in total yards. Similarly, Clemson had no problem w/ Furman, beating them 48-7 w/ a 531-136 edge in total yards. But those were both tune-ups. Now we're about to find out what both sides are truly made of. We're pretty sure that Clemson is good, but I think A&M is also better than they're being given credit for. Fisher likes both his offensive and defensive lines and I believe playing well in the trenches keeps the Aggies in the game the whole way. This spread should be closer to a touchdown, in my estimation. 10* Texas A&M 

10* Iowa (5:00 ET): The battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy has typically been closely contested as five of the past seven meetings have been decided by six points or less. That would lead one to believe that the underdog is typically the "right side" in this rivalry, but note that the dog has actually covered only once in the past five years. Last year, Iowa won 44-41 in overtime after a late TD drive tied things up at the end of regulation. It was their third straight win over their main in-state rival. However, ISU still ended up finishing the year at 8-5 SU, same as the Hawkeyes. The Cyclones were a big surprise in the Big 12 and this year finds expectations a lot higher than normal in Ames (Matt Campbell's third year here). But I'm a bit concerned on how last week's cancellation (weather) will affect this team, which I am banking on regressing in 2018 anyway. 

Iowa State pulled a lot of upsets last season. They were an underdog in all but two conference games, the exceptions being the obvious ones (against Kansas and Baylor). This year's squad isn't quite as experienced and probably won't have a +10 turnover margin like 2017. Turnovers have actually been a MAJOR issue for the Cyclones in recent years vs. Iowa. They have committed 22 of them in the last nine meetings, leading to 68 Iowa points. That's roughly a quarter of all scoring from the Hawkeyes in those nine games. Their last visit here to Iowa City (two years ago) did not go well as they lost 42-3 in Campbell's second game. Despite the feel of Campbell having this program trending in a positive direction, I'm banking on ISU being somewhat of a disappointment in 2018. 

Kinnick Stadium (I visited there over the summer) is not an easy place to play. Just ask Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State. The Hawkeyes are 15-5 SU at home the L3 years after dismantling Northern Illinois last week 33-7. That was a game where a LOT of people liked the underdog. I've got the Hawkeyes finishing second in the Big 10 West this year (behind Wisconsin obviously) as this should be a better team than last year. As I briefly mentioned above, Iowa State did not play last week as their scheduled game vs. South Dakota State was cancelled due to the weather. Not getting a game under their belt could end up costing them here as Iowa looked good and ready to go in their opener. I get that Iowa State was a great underdog last season, but typically we see that kind of performance regress the following season. 10* Iowa 

8* South Carolina (3:30 ET): This game is back to being played on the second weekend of the season after a couple year hiatus. These teams finished 1-2 in the SEC East last year (UGA obviously #1), but oddsmakers had it as a total mismatch w/ UGA favored by 23 in Athens. The Bulldogs did win comfortably, but "only" by two touchdowns as it was the Gamecocks who covered the spread. It was UGA's third straight double digit win in the rivalry, and it looks like the same is being expected Saturday. But this is a lot of points to lay on the SEC road and I think Will Muschamp's defense keeps his team in this one. Take the points as the home team is on a 5-1 run in this series. 

Georgia was a pointspread juggernaut LY, covering 11 of its 15 games, including the National Title Game LOSS to Alabama. They opened #3 this season (behind Bama and Clemson) and clobbered Austin Peay 45-0 w/ a 508-152 edge in total yards. That really doesn't tell us much about this team. This team was pretty fortunate last year in that most of their "hard" games were at home. Their one regular season road game against a ranked opponent was a one-point win over Notre Dame. Something to watch here is that the 'Dawgs have only five returning starters on defense. South Carolina's offense is a lot more talented this year w/ both WR Deebo Samuel and RB Rico Dowdle back from injuries. Neither played in last year's game. 

Like Georgia, South Carolina's first game tells us little about what is yet to come. They blew out Coastal Carolina 49-15 and now find themselves ranked in the Top 25. Dowdle had 100 yards on 15 carries and the Gamecocks dominated (as you'd expect) w/ a 557-238 edge in total yards. This is easily the biggest home game of the Muschamp era (third year here), so expect a highly motivated underdog Saturday afternoon. It's also the national TV game on CBS. As good as Georgia may be, I don't see them coming in and blowing South Carolina out. To me, Georgia by about a touchdown seems like a pretty likely scenario, which means taking the points is the way to go here. 8* South Carolina

8* Arkansas State (3:30 ET): You have to tip your cap to Nick Saban for the job done in yet another neutral site season opener. Last week's 51-14 demolition of Louisville (in Orlando) improved Saban to a perfect 12-0 SU (and 11-1 ATS) in season openers since coming to Tuscaloosa and the L8 wins have all come at neutral sites against Power 5 programs. He's covered the spot in seven of those. But as impressive as Bama has been in those games, they've been equally as disappointing the following week - at least to bettors. They are 0-6 ATS (w/ one no-action) in Week 2 the past seven years as they are almost always laying a big number in a game that just screams out "flat spot." It's the same setup this year and this is a play on the situation moreso than the points. Take Arkansas State plus the points. 

Arkansas State won its opener 48-21 over Southeast Missouri State. QB Justice Hansen threw 6 TD passes, all to different receivers, and completed 26 of 36 pass attempts for 423 yards. But the Red Wolves really didn't break away until the 3Q when they found the end zone four times. Dahu Green was NOT one of the six receivers who caught a TD pass from Hansen, nor will he be catching one the rest of the season as his 2018 is now over due to a broken ankle. Green was NOT a part of the team last year though (sat out as a transfer) when ASU went 7-5 SU, which was actually a DOWN year for them. This is a program that has been to seven straight bowls despite a myriad of coaching changes. While they're clearly NOT on Alabama's level, the Red Wolves are more than capable of staying within this huge number. 

I don't see Alabama trying to run up the score here. They proved their point against Louisville and have the SEC opener next week at Ole Miss (always a tricky place for Saban). The QB situation seems to have worked itself out here w/ Taovailoa predictably beating out Hurts to be the starter. But no matter who's started for the Crimson Tide, they have consistently failed laying these big numbers at the betting window in Week 2. Last year, they were 43-point chalk against Fresno State and won "only" 41-10 (I had FSU!). That was w/o a SEC game on deck. The Tide's defense is young on the backend (secondary), which should allow Hansen and the Arkansas State offense to make enough plays to stay comfortably within this spread. 8* Arkansas State

8* Air Force (2:00 ET): FAU looked shockingly ill-prepared for its season opener at Oklahoma to the point it appeared the team had been simply reading its own press clippings and not practicing over the summer. They lost 63-14, getting outgained 650-324 in the process. The game was 42-0 at halftime and could have been a lot worse had the Sooners not taken their foot off the gas pedal in the 2H. FAU also didn't score until late in the third quarter and their second TD came w/ just over four minutes to go in the game. As ugly as that display was, things won't get any easier this week as they have to turn around and defend the triple option of Air Force. Given how putrid the Owls' defense looked last Saturday, I give the AFA an excellent shot at coming in and pulling the outright upset. Take the points. 

Service academies always seem to make for good underdogs and Air Force has generally been no exception. They are 7-2 ATS in the L3 years as a road dog. Last week, they were a favorite and crushed Stony Brook 38-0. The Falcons' defense was not impressed w/ what the Sea Wolves had to offer, holding them to just 75 yards and 4 first downs for the game. It marked the 12th consecutive season that the AFA opened the season w/ a win over a FCS opponent at home. This week is going to be tougher, but I don't expect the contingent from Colorado Springs will be intimidated. To the contrary, I expect them to be highly motivated. The last three seasons have seen this team go 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS against non-conference competition. 

Florida Atlantic was one of the breakout teams in college football last season, going 11-3 SU and 10-3-1 ATS. It will now be interesting to see how they perform going from the "hunter" to the "hunted." I don't know what to make of last week's dreadful showing, other than to say it's looking like a surefire decline under HC Lane Kiffin in year two. The Owls were the most experienced team in the country LY, paving the way for massive improvement. They did bring back 10 starters on defense for this season, but some good that did them last week. They've got only five starters back on offense and looked totally one dimensional LW w/ RB Devin Singletary the only real threat. Air Force has covered 9 of the past 10 times it has been a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points. 8* Air Force

8* Nevada (12:00 ET): All summer long, Vanderbilt had to hear how Middle Tennessee was on "their level." Odds reflected that belief as the Commodores were only slight favorites, at home, going into last Saturday's Week 1 matchup. So much for that belief. The Commies easily dispatched of the Blue Raiders, winning 35-7 and covering the spread easily as 3.5-pt favorites. But now comes a potential "trap spot" as they're off a win over an in-state "rival" and have Notre Dame on deck. They may have gotten the job done last week, but Vandy has never really been a good choice as a favorite, going just 2-8 ATS the L10x it has been asked to lay between 7.5 and 10 pts at home. They're rarely even in this price range and Nevada is a dangerous dog. Take the points. 

Nevada hung 72 points on an overmatched Portland State squad last week, a nice start after going just 3-9 SU last season. I figure they're a lock to improve in the Mt West as this is Jay Norvell's second season and he's got seven returning starters on offense as opposed to the four he had last year. Things won't be as easy this week compared to last, but it won't have to be in the underdog role. Something else to consider here is that Nevada has had an extra day to prepare as their season opener took place last Friday. They rolled up 636 yards of total offense against Portland State and should be highly motivated going into "SEC country" for the 1st time since 2015 and just the fifth time ever. 

As lopsided as the game ended up being on the scoreboard, Vandy really didn't pull away until late against MTSU. A defensive TD in the second quarter is what swung the game as it was tied 7-7 at that point. After a 58-yard TD drive to open the game, Vandy's offense struggled to move the ball for the rest of the 1st half, gaining just 31 more yards. Their pass defense was also suspect, giving up 100 yds through the air in the 1st quarter alone. A +2 turnover margin obviously helped as well. Nevada QB Ty Gangi threw for 342 yards in the opener. While that obviously came against an inferior defense, he should put up solid numbers again in this one. Vandy is 1-4 ATS following its previous 5 SU wins and isn't as lucky as a last week when the number is so short. Look for the pointspread to be a factor in this one. 8* Nevada 

10* LA Dodgers (8:40 ET): It's a huge weekend series in the NL West with the Rockies hosting the Dodgers. Colorado might have a 1.5 game edge in the standings, but there is zero doubt here (in my mind) that LA is the vastly superior team. Something that my regular clients know is that I am a huge proponent of run differential being a better predictor of future outcomes than a team's actual won-loss record. Here, that metric speaks volumes. The Dodgers have a NL-best +129 run differential. The Rockies, despite being 15 games over .500, have actually been OUTSCORED by eight runs over the course of this season. Oddsmakers aren't fooled by the respective records here, nor am I. With their ace Clayton Kershaw on the mound for Friday's opener, bet big on Los Angeles.

Colorado does come into the weekend on a five-game win streak. They just swept the Giants here at Coors Field and this is their third straight series taking on a division opponent (played in San Diego before hosting SF). Despite the perception of a massive homefield advantage, the Rockies have actually not performed all that well in Coors Field this season. They've been outscored and their record is just 37-30. (Keep in mind that includes three straight wins). They turn to Jon Gray tonight and while he has an 8-1 TSR since returning from Triple-A Albuquerque, I don't believe he'll be able to match Kershaw tonight. Consider that in his last two starts, Gray has a total of just two strikeouts. Against the Dodgers on August 10th, he allowed four runs in 5 2/3 innings, one of his weaker outings since rejoining the rotation. Something else to note is that Gray has allowed a HR in seven straight starts, including multiple in his last two. 

Kershaw is a pitcher who hopefully needs no introduction. He actually also allowed two HR's in his last start, but both were solo shots and the Dodgers still were able to win the game. Something else Kershaw has in common w/ Gray is that he too is unbeaten over his L7 starts. Only Kershaw's numbers, including 1.99 ERA and 0.785 WHIP, are much better. I realize the Dodgers will be w/o closer Kenley Jansen this weekend, but having Kershaw on the mound mitigates the need for the bullpen. He's gone at least seven innings his L4 trips to the mound. The Dodgers also come into this series w/ revenge as they were swept here last month. At Coors Field, offense shouldn't be a problem for a team already averaging 5.2 rpg on the road. That's more than the Rockies average here. 10* LA Dodgers 

8* Cincinnati (6:40 ET): Perhaps taking an advantage of an off-day, San Diego came in and was able to defeat Cincinnati on Thursday, 6-2. To clarify, the Padres had Wednesday off while the Reds were wrapping up their series w/ Pittsburgh. Maybe that was the reason the visitors were able to get out to a quick start last night as it was 5-0 by the fourth inning in a battle of starters named Castillo. Whatever the reason, the Reds have now dropped four in a row at home (were swept by the Pirates). In those four games, they have scored just eight runs. I'll call for them to snap out of the slump tonight though as they face Brett Kennedy, whose two road starts thus far have gone badly. The Reds are a better team than the Padres and should bounce back tonight.

The truth is that the Reds were doomed early on this season when they started out by losing 18 of their first 21 games. That got manager Bryan Price fired, but ever since the club has been a lot more respectable. They're 56-64 overall and that's including the current losing streak. Take out starts made by Homer Bailey (1-19 TSR!) and the team is even closer to .500. Starting tonight will be Anthony DeSclafani. He hasn't exactly been dominant of late, but he's also had to face the top three teams from the NL Central (Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals) his L3 starts. The Reds have won two of those games. DeSclafani has arguably been the Reds' best pitcher in 2018 and has posted a 2.75 ERA his L36 innings of work. He's made two career starts vs. the Padres and his ERA is 0.64.

You'd expect Cincinnati to score more given some of the hitters in the lineup. Eight regulars are hitting .275 or better. Leadoff man Scooter Gennett is #1 in the NL in batting average (.320) and its notable he was given Thursday off. He'll be back in the lineup tonight and has gone 12 for 26 at the plate his L6 games. Eugenio Suarez is top five in the NL in both home runs and RBI's. Then you have Joey Votto, a perennial MVP candidate. With Padres starter Kennedy having posted a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in two road starts thus far, I expect the Reds to break out of this mini-slump tonight. Meanwhile, San Diego averages only 3.7 rpg themselves on the road. They're also just 18-36 off a win. Thus, the idea of fading them in the situation is really attractive. 8* Cincinnati