8* Toronto (7:05 ET):  Oakland has been very impressive on the road thus far (6-0!) and will be sending ace Sonny Gray to the mound this evening in Toronto. The A's have won five in a row overall and are coming off an impressive three-game sweep of the Yankees, in New York. But it's a step up in class here as they face the team that in many people's mind is the favorite to win the American League. Toronto may be coming off B2B losses at Baltimore, but I certainly like what I've seen from tonight's starter - Aaron Sanchez - so far this season. Furthermore, you have to expect that the vaunted Blue Jays lineup is ready to explode now that they're back home where they are averaging 4.5 runs per game (5.6 rpg last year!). Go w/ the home team.

Let's talk more about Sanchez, shall we? Through three starts, he's posted a 1.35 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. His last time out, he allowed just one run on two hits over seven innings of work and the team beat the Red Sox 7-2.  Shockingly though, that was the first time that the team won w/ Sanchez starting as they failed to provide him w/ any real support in his first two starts. Still though, he's allowed just 1 ER in all three starts and has 20 K's in 20 IP.  In the past, Oakland has had a tough time hitting Toronto starting pitching. They have lost six straight times to the Blue Jays w/ the Toronto starters posting a superb 2.20 ERA. This will be Sanchez's first time starting against the A's, but he did throw two scoreless innings of relief against them last season.

As far as the hitting is concerned, the Blue Jays went just 2 for 20 w/ RISP the L2 days in Baltimore. I suspect things will go a lot better in the department now that they're back home.  While Gray is tempting at the underdog price, be aware that he threw 114 pitches his last time out and has lost four straight starts on the road (dating back to the end of last year) thanks to a 6.64 ERA. Overall, Oakland's numbers on the road are set to decline as I can't see them continuing to hold opponents under two runs per game, especially this one.  8* Toronto

10* Over Cavs/Pistons (7:05 ET): With Cleveland up 2-0 in the series, things now move to the Motor City.  The Cavs are still the favorite on the road, mind you, as they should be. But be very aware that Detroit had the league's best ATS record at home during the regular season (24-15-2). I'm going to lay off the side here and instead turn to the total where we find the Cavs coming off a game where they tied an NBA-record 20 three-pointers. It stands to reason that they won't make as many here tonight, but that figures to be offset by the fact the Pistons are very likely to make more than just four three-pointers, which is how many they hit in Game 2.  The Over was 24-16-1 here in Detroit during the regular season. Take the Over.

A big part of why the Over was such a profitable bet here during the regular season is the simple fact the Pistons average 105.0 points per game, a significant increase over what they average on the road (6.3 PPG more).  This may be far from the greatest shooting team in the world, but Wednesday night did mark their lowest scoring game of the year vs. the Cavaliers. Much of that was owed to the 4 of 17 shooting from three-point range, not to mention missing 14 free throws as well (12 from Drummond).  I expect the shooting to drastically improve tonight in both areas.  Also, both times the Pistons hosted the Cavs during the regular season, the game went Over.  Cleveland's last visit brought a higher total than this one and the teams combined to score 220 points.

With Cleveland, we know where the bulk of the scoring is going to come from (James-Irving-Love) and through two games Detroit appears powerless to stop them. The Pistons aren't even contesting most of the Cavs' jump shots and Kyrie Irving continues to tear them up w/ a 27.8 PPG scoring average in four games this season. I don't know what rookie Stanley Johnson is talking about when he refers to himself as the "LeBron stopper" as James made every shot he took against Johnson in Game 2.  The Cavs are 21-11 Over this season when off a double digit win and 7-3 Over as road favorites of 3.5 to 6 points.  10* Over Cavs/Pistons

8* Under Rockets/Warriors (9:35 ET):  The challenge in handicapping this series is that the status of Steph Curry appears to be in flux.  He was held out of Game 2, but Golden State still won rather easily (115-106), though they did not cover. They actually scored more w/o Curry than they did with him in Game 1, but if he continues to sit out, I don't see that being the case moving forward. After Game 1 stayed Under the total by an incredible margin (42.5 points!), Game 2 just managed to sneak past the total, which like the pointspread dropped significantly after it was announced Curry would not play.  Regardless of whether or not the league MVP suits up tonight, I anticipate the game to feature fewer points scored than expected. Take the Under.

Though the Warriors are the vastly superior team here, losing Curry's 31.6 points per game remains a massive blow.  Playing only 20 minutes in Game 1, he scored 24 points - all on three-pointers.  It's one thing for the supporting cast to step up at home, but doing the same on the road seems less likely.  Two players in particular who should see their production from Game 2 decrease tonight are Shaun Livingston (starting in place of Curry) and Andre Iguodala. That duo was a combined 14 of 19 from the field Monday w/ Iguodala making four of six three-point attempts. I realize that Houston is not regarded as a "stout" defensive team, but their job would be a whole heck of a lot easier not facing Curry.  If Curry does play, will he really be 100 percent?

Houston turned it over far too many times (19) in Game 2, which led to additional scoring opportunities for Golden State, who hardly needs them.  At the same time, the Rockets scored 23 points off 12 Warriors turnovers.  I anticipate the number of turnovers going down in this game.  What most people don't realize about Golden State is that they ranked fourth in DEFENSIVE efficiency during the regular season.  They've held Houston to well under one point per possession through the first two games and this Rockets team just seems on the verge of implosion w/ Dwight Howard and James Harden not getting along. Harden is the only player averaging more than 13 PPG in the series.  8* Under Rockets/Warriors

8* Pittsburgh (9:10 ET):  This series has certainly not brought the results that the Pirates - or anyone, for that matter - would have anticipated as they've dropped both games here in San Diego.  This is their final chance to earn a win at the lowly Padres expense and I like their chances w/ ace Gerrit Cole on the bump despite the fact he's started the season 0-2. San Diego's James Shields has an 0-3 team start record himself w/ similar numbers, so it's not like we need to be overly fearful of him.  The Padres offense has scored 13 times so far in this series, but they are still only batting .218 for the year here at Petco Park. Meanwhile, the Bucs lead all of MLB in team batting average. I anticipate a big offensive day from them here and for Cole to earn his first victory of 2016.

Cole has certainly always enjoyed pitching on the West Coast, which is where he originally hails from. In his last five road starts against the NL West, he's 5-0 w/ a 2.14 ERA and his ERA is 2.04 his last three starts vs. San Diego. No member of the Padres lineup, with the exception of John Jay, has much experience against Cole and remember that this is an offense that had scored just 11 runs - total - in six games prior to this series getting underway.  The only other time that San Diego has posted B2B victories this season, they promptly went out and lost their next time out (6-3 to the Rockies), also in a series finale.

The Pirates continue have their chances to score, they just haven't come through as with runners in scoring position, the team batting average is just .174 in the series. For the season, they are hitting just .229 w/ RISP, a huge discrepancy from the overall team batting average. I anticipate that to be rectified sooner rather than later.  Shields' KW ratio is way down this year (2.0) and he's allowed four home runs in his last two starts. Furthermore, he walked four batters his last time out and that was here at home. Of his 16 starts last year here at Petco, only nine were quality as he posted a subpar 1.363 WHIP. I just can't see the Pirates getting swept here by what is clearly an inferior opponent.  8* Pittsburgh

8* Over Raptors/Pacers (7:35 ET):  The first two games of this series both stayed Under, but now the scene shifts to Indiana where I feel we'll see a different result.  Though they were able to salvage a split of the two games at home w/ a wire-to-wire 98-87 Game 2 victory, Toronto's three-point shooting has largely been a disaster so far as they've gone a combined 9 for 37. Indiana was no better in Game 2 Monday, in fact, they were even worse at 4 for 20 from behind the arc.  Remember from my previous analysis on this series that Toronto often struggles to defend the three-point line. So I expect Indiana's overall shooting to improve from Game 2 (41.4%) and at the same time the Raptors' two stars - Lowry & DeRozan - have to start improving as well.  Take the Over.

Toronto's struggles from behind the arc can be pinned almost exclusively on Lowry, who is just 1 for 12 himself.  A 38.5 percent shooter from three-point range during the regular season, he has to be better. Playoff struggles are nothing new for him (he was terrible LY vs. the Wizards), but there's no way he can continue being THIS bad (26.9 FG%) and the same holds true for DeRozan, who has missed 27 of his 37 field goal attempts.  One clear advantage the Raptors do have in this series is down low and I look for them to continue to exploit that w/ Jonas Valanciunas, who has been the driving force behind a +32 scoring advantage and +25 rebounding edge in the series.

Indiana saw its offensive production decrease from Game 1 to Game 2 mainly because no one other than Paul George (28 points) stepped up.  Monta Ellis (15 pts) was the only other double digit scorer for the Pacers in Game 2 and the rest of the team was a woeful 1 for 15 from three-point range. As we so often see, the production from the "supporting cast" tends to go way up when a team is at home and that's what I see happening here for the Pacers.  Both teams are due for improvement in overall shooting here and what I see here is a total that's the second lowest for any Raptors-Pacers matchup this season.  Only four times previously has the O/U line been between 190 and 194.5 for an Indiana home game. 8* Over Raptors/Pacers

10* Under Royals/Tigers (7:15 ET):  Detroit has posted the American League's second best run differential (+14) up to this point and is coming off a 3-2 win (as +120 ML dogs) yday here at Kauffman Stadium.  But the Tigers figure to struggle at the plate tonight, facing Edinson Volquez, who through three starts has been perfect (3-0 TSR) w/ a 2.04 ERA and 1.188 WHIP. Now Ventura did have his share of struggles against this lineup last year and the Tigers have since added Justin Upton (.470 career hitter vs. Volquez).  But, I wouldn't be too worried about the Upton factor here as he's struck out in every game this season and nine times in the last four games alone. Last night was a low-scoring game between these two teams and that's what I'm anticipating again here tonight.  Take the Under.

As an Under player, what I would have been worried about here is Tigers' starter Mike Pelfrey, were it not for his last start. After a rocky outing to open 2016, Pelfrey bounced back last Friday by allowing just one run and five hits over 6 IP at Houston. Unfortunately for him, the team lost the game, but that's of no matter as the final score was 1-0 (team was up against Dallas Keuchel).  Now Pelfrey did have some control issues (six walks) against the Astros, but that's highly uncommon as he hadn't walked more than two batters in any of his last 14 starts dating back to last season. The Kansas City lineup he faces here hasn't been scoring a ton, save for the opening game of this series, and is just 21st in on base percentage. They are also just 19th in runs scored.

Volquez has allowed 2 ER or fewer in each of his three starts to this point.  Last time out (against Oakland), he allowed only four hits in six innings.  He was even better his last time starting here at home as he mowed down Minnesota, recording 10 K's in 5 2/3 IP.  His first start of the year came on Opening Night and saw him throw six scoreless innings of two-hit ball.  The Under is perfect, just like his team start record, through three starts and one would have to all the way back to September 19th to find the last time a game involving Volquez saw more than nine total runs scored.  10* Under Royals/Tigers

10* Over Penguins/Rangers (7:05 ET): I was on Pittsburgh in Game 3 and they came through with a 3-1 victory to reclaim the series lead. I favor them again in Game 4 (as do the oddsmakers), but honestly, winning B2B games at MSG is going to be pretty tough. Therefore, to the total we go, and after oddsmakers had the number at 5.5 for the last two games, we're back down to a 5.0 for tonight. That's fairly significant and the first two games of the series did go Over with seven and six total goals scored. For a second straight game, it will be rookie Matt Murray in goal for the Pens and while he was solid in Game 3, he faced only 17 shots and figures to be tested with far greater frequency tonight.  Take the Over.

The Rangers only goal in Game 3 came short-handed. That's not a good sign at all, but I would like to note that the team is 12-5 Over this season when coming off a loss by two or more goals. It's also worth noting that the Rangers had another goal nullified in the first period due to a coach's challenge on an offsides call. Had that goal stood, it really would have changed the complexion of the game. I realize that the Penguins' third goal of the game came on an empty net, but Henrik Lundqvist now only has a .909 save percentage his last four starts and the Over is 16-11 when is in goal at home.  Prior to Game 3, the Over had been 9-0-5 the team's last 14 games. During the regular season, the Rangers were 7th in goals per game. It should be a bounce back offensively tonight.

As for the Pens, they ranked third in the league in goals per game during the regular season and have had little difficulty finding the back of the net over the course of the last month. For them, the Over had been 8-2-1 in their 11 games prior to Tuesday. They have 10 goals in the series, four of them coming from the power play, thanks to the Rangers' penalty killing unit continuing to be such a weakness (26th in the regular season). Pittsburgh has also put exactly 31 shots on goal in all three games of this series.  But the one question mark remains in goal as I believe Murray is likely to not be as effective tonight as he was in Game 3 due to the simple fact he's going to be facing more shots. The Over is 26-15-7 the Penguins' last 48 games. 10* Over Penguins/Rangers

8* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): As I've already indicated, I've really had my finger on the "pulse" of this series. Even though they were ML underdogs for Game 4, I went with the Lightning as I've always felt that they were the vastly superior team in this series. They delivered a 3-2 win in the Motor City, scoring the game winner w/ just under three minutes to go.  The Red Wings are now on the brink (one game away from elimination) and tonight I believe we'll see Tampa Bay become the first team to move on to the second round. Again, Detroit posted the worst goal differential among playoff teams during the regular season and no matter who is in goal, it doesn't seem that they can match Ben Bishop of the Lightning.  Series over.

Going back to the end of the regular season, the Red Wings have now scored exactly two goals in six consecutive games.  Going back even further, it's been 11 straight games scoring three goals or fewer.  Bishop has had their number in this series w/ a .937 save percentage and he hasn't given up more than two goals in any of his last 10 starts vs. Detroit. One of the better goaltenders all season, Bishop was the driving force behind the Lightning ranking fifth in the league in goals allowed.  He clearly gives his team an advantage over Detroit between the pipes as both Petr Mrazek and Jimmy Howard have had their struggles over the last month.

Special teams have also been killing the Red Wings in this series.  Their power play has gone a miserable 1 for 21 and they allowed Tampa Bay to score all three of its goals when on the man advantage in Game 4.  That's not a good sign at all, especially considering the power play was the Lightning's albatross for most of the regular season. It doesn't seem as if Detroit has any answer for Tampa's top line and the fact that the Wings struggle to score (23rd in goals per game) really is their Achilles' heel.  Now, they're back on the road, where their record is just 19-24 for the season including losses in both Games 1 and 2 here in Tampa Bay.  There's simply no aspect of the game where the Red Wings are the better team in this series, which will come to an end tonight.  8* Tampa Bay

10* Dallas (7:05 ET):  After being humiliated in Game 1 of this best of seven series (lost by 38), the Mavs responded by delivering an even more shocking result in Game 2, that being an outright win as 14-pt underdogs. Now the series shifts to Dallas and clearly the oddsmakers are anticipating a bounce back performance from the Thunder as they've hung a number here that is "out of step" with what was already a pretty large spread for the first two games.  Using the opening line from Games 1 and 2 (OKC -12.5) as a barometer, the Mavs should probably be in the neighborhood of a 6.5-pt dog coming into Game 3. My own personal power rankings suggest that the line should be even lower than that. So, I'm going to take the points here.

Kevin Durant was a disaster in Game 2 for the Thunder as he missed 26 of 33 field goal attempts, the worst shooting performance by any player in the playoffs since the immortal Jerry Stackhouse missed one more all the way back in 2001.  Obviously, you'd anticipate Durant shooting better here, but to what degree? Wesley Matthews seemed to do the best job guarding him, holding him to 1 for 11 shooting. Beyond Durant and Russell Westbrook, the rest of the Thunder roster is not to be feared, save for maybe Enes Kanter.  This was not a good team at the betting window all season long (36-45-3 ATS) and those anticipating a bounce back will be disappointed to learn that OKC is just 5-11 ATS when coming off a SU loss as a favorite.

Offensively, Monday marked just the fourth time all season that the Thunder were held below 85 points. Save for Game 1, Dallas has been playing great defense down the stretch, holding 10 of its last 11 opponents under 100 points (Game 1 the exception).  Six of those games have seen them hold the opponent under 90 points! Oklahoma City is just 1-2 ATS coming off those previous three times they were held under 85 pts and they are also just 1-5 ATS after allowing 85 pts or less the last game.  I realize that Dallas is dealing with numerous injuries right now (including Dirk Nowitzki, who will play), but Rick Carlisle is the better coach in this series and will get his team to keep this one closer than expected. 10* Dallas

10* Over Angels/White Sox (2:10 ET):  For a second straight start, Chris Sale carried the White Sox to victory yday, a 2-1 decision over the Angels.  Runs have been rather scarce in this series w/ two shutouts and yday's game seeing just three total runs scored. Both clubs are riding four-game Under streaks and in the case of Chicago, the Under is 8-1 their last nine games. Incredibly, their pitching staff has allowed one or zero runs in six of those games, but today sees the starter that was on the mound for that lone Over toeing the rubber again and that's John Danks, who carries a poor 7.94 ERA and 1.589 WHIP (two starts) into today's game. So, I'll be defying recent team results and instead take into account who the starters are here, not just Danks, but the opposing pitcher as well. 

The Angels will be handing over the baseball to Jered Weaver here and that's problematic given his level of performance on the road the last two seasons. Weaver had the highest ERA of any starter in baseball on the road last season (6.01) and he isn't exactly off to a great start to 2016 either. Last time out, pitching on the road, he surrendered four runs and eight hits (in only 4 1/3 innings) to a Minnesota team that had really been struggling at the plate. Looking only at his road starts, there were six different times in 2015 that Weaver lasted six innings or less and allowed at least five runs.  He has pitched well in the past against the White Sox, but this is also no longer the same pitcher from just a few year's back. 

The White Sox rotation has been amazing to this point, but that's no thanks to Danks, who is now 1-9 w/ a 5.06 ERA his L12 starts.  He allowed five runs his last time out - including a pair of homers - in a 7-2 loss to the Rays.  I realize that the Angels have been struggling at the plate recently, but this is a pitcher that should allow them to turn things around.  In his most recent start against Los Angeles - back in August - Danks allowed four runs in seven innings. I look for this to be the highest scoring game of the series.  10* Over Angels/White Sox

10* Portland (10:35 ET): The zig zag theory has been quite profitable thus far in the playoffs, taking into account the teams that failed to cover the spread in the respective Game 1's.  Of the five series that have played two games, four of the teams that failed to cover Game 1 came back and covered Game 2.  The only exception is injury-riddled Memphis, who has to deal with San Antonio.  The first round of the Western Conference looked to be a breeze for all the higher seeds, but note we've already seen underdogs Dallas and Houston fare far better the second time around compared to the first and the Mavericks even took Game 2 of their series outright.  Here, we find Portland off a 20-pt loss to the Clippers in Game 1, but I look for them to bounce back with a much better performance tonight. Take the points.

I thought HC Terry Stotts did a marvelous job getting his team to the playoffs considering that the Blazers lost four of five starters from last year's squad, one of them being All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge.  Portland was actually projected to finish with one of the worst records in the entire league at the start of the season. But they wound up going Over that projection by nearly 20 games and here they are. I don't see them getting held below 40% from the floor for a second consecutive game nor do I see shooting guard CJ McCollum being held to only single digits again.  I say that because he hasn't been held below 10 pts in consecutive games since last season. Other than Damian Lillard, Portland's other four starters combined to shoot 10 of 36 from the floor (worst shooting game since 3.14).  There will undoubtedly be improvement tonight.

The Clippers, Blake Griffin in particular, looked impressive in Game 1. But they are just 15-13 straight up following a double digit win this year and 12-16 ATS.  Curiously, they are also 3-9 ATS when playing with exactly two days rest. Just like Portland's shooting numbers are due to improve, the Clippers aren't as likely to be as hot as they were in Game 1 (53.8%).  They are 16-24 ATS following an ATS win this season.  10* Portland

8* Detroit (8:05 ET):  The Pistons certainly played well enough to win Game 1. In fact, given that they shot better than 50% from three-point range and let outright much of the way, they probably feel as if they let one "slip away" Sunday in Cleveland. While a team that didn't shoot particularly well during the regular season is likely to experience somewhat of a decline in Game 2 (at least from behind the arc), what about the Cavs reliance on their "Big 3" (LeBron, Irving and Love), who accounted for a ridiculous 81 of the team's 106 points? I'm not sure that's sustainable either and despite Tyronn Lue making a bit of a savvy decision late (went small), I still trust Stan Van Gundy more to make the necessary adjustments. Take the points.

Detroit did beat Cleveland three times during the regular season. One of those wins came in the meaningless final game (both teams rested starters), but still that's two of three that they still won straight up. Overall, they are 4-1 ATS against Cleveland this year and have not lost by a margin greater than eight points.  So, a double digit spread doesn't seem justified in this situation, particularly given how the Cavs never enjoyed a lead greater than eight points in Game 1.   Cleveland is a money-burning 31-42 ATS when favored this season, indicating that they've definitely been overvauled throughout the campaign. The assumption that they are going to "walk through" the rest of the East has worked against them as they are just 22-31 ATS in conference games. 

Detroit doesn't lose by double digits often. In fact, it's happened only twice in their last 16 games. They are one of just four Eastern Conference teams to win straight up here in Cleveland this season and led by seven in the fourth quarter on Sunday.  I anticipated this line opening much lower than it did.  The Pistons, arguably, have better depth than Cleveland w/ five players averaging at least 14 points per game.  They also have the better coach. The Cavaliers defensive numbers have regressed ever since Lue took over as the head coach.  As long as the Pistons don't turn the ball over as much as they did in Game 1, they should be able to withstand the likely decline in three-point percentage and cover the spread w/ room to spare. 8* Detroit

8* Over Hornets/Heat (7:05 ET):  Miami looked very impressive in Game 1 of this series as they destroyed Charlotte 123-91 (as 4.5-pt favorites), shooting 28 of 43 in the painted area and 57.6 percent overall. Luol Deng led the way w/ 31 points and the Heat never trailed while setting franchise marks for most points in a quarter (41) and game (123) in the postseason. Now, it's highly unlikely that they'll shoot that well again tonight or that the game will be as lopsided. But that being said, this total is just too low and it continues to be bet down. After being an Under team for much of the regular season, the Heat definitely have transformed down the stretch as there's been only four games since the start of March where they didn't score 100 points. Charlotte has now gone Over in each of its last six games overall and is a perfect 9-0 Over in its last nine visits to South Beach. Take the Over.

Miami's late season scoring surge can be traced to the acquisition of Joe Johnson, but what's scary (if you're a Hornets fan) is that he had only 11 points in 26 minutes on Sunday.  The key performances for the Heat came from Deng (31 points) and Hassan Whiteside (21 pts, 11 rebounds).  At home, this team now averages a healthy 103.7 points per game. The last time they failed to score 100 here at the American Airlines Arena was all the way back on February 7th vs. the Clippers. Consider that through three quarters on Sunday, the Heat had scored 97 points.

Charlotte has been an explosive offensive team down the stretch as well, topping 110 pts four times in their last six games.  Again, all six of those games went Over the total and you have to figure they'll be a bit better offensively tonight compared to Game 1.  Sunday marked just the third time in April that they were held below 100 pts and one would have to go all the way back to mid-March to find the last time that happened in B2B games.  Kemba Walker scored only 19 pts in Game 1 and 20 of Nic Batum's 24 points came in the first half. WIth the game out of reach, HC Steve Clifford started taking his key players out in the fourth quarter and as a result the Hornets scored just 17 points. The total is just too low here.  Take the Over. 8* Over Hornets/Heat

10* Over Capitals/Flyers (7:05 ET):  You never want to make any premature calls, but it does appear as if this series is "all over but the shouting" as the heavily favored Capitals have a three games to none advantage and are coming off a commanding 6-1 win Monday in Game 3. They scored FIVE times on the power play in that victory and have now totaled 10 goals the last two games. Philadelphia, meanwhile, has just two goals in this series.  But if there is any hope that the Flyers can cling to, it's that the Caps standout goalie - Braden Holtby - collided w/ a teammate in practice yday and may not be 100 percent. Of course, the Philly goaltending situation is looking rather dire right now and thus I expect this game to go Over the total.

Coming into the series, you knew that the Washington power play was a concern for the Flyers.  The Caps ranked 5th w/ the man advantage during the regular season (21.9 percent) and have already scored eight PP goals in this series. Penalty killing was already not Philly's strong suit (ranked 20th in the reg season), but they keep giving the Caps so many chances that it doesn't even matter how they rank.  Washington was on the power play NINE times in Game 3 alone. That makes it 17 opportunities in the series and they are now 7 for the last 11.  This is a team that ranked second in the regular season in number of goals scored overall, so I just don't see how either Steve Mason (.852 save percentage in the series) or Michael Neuvirth (.896 L4 starts) can stop them.

While Washington sent Game 3 Over the total by themselves, they'll probably need a little help from the Flyers tonight as in a goal or two. So far, Philly has not been able to solve Holtby, who has a .978 save percentage in this series. But this is the fewest number of goals that the Flyers have scored over any three-game span all season, matching a stretch from back in mid-November when they were shut out in B2B games.  Maybe Holtby's leg gives him problems tonight (he is expected to play) or maybe the Flyers get their own power play going as it's a woeful 0 for 13 in the series.  The Over is 11-4 this season in Flyers' home games when the total is 5.0.  10* Over Capitals/Flyers

9* Cleveland (6:10 ET):  The Indians won for me yday (by a score of 3-2) and I'll come right back with them again this evening as they send Danny Salazar to the bump.  I don't think people realize just how "pitching rich" Cleveland is.  Yesterday, they sent out Carlos Carrasco and he allowed just one run in 6 1/3 innings. Today, they have the luxury of following up with Salazar, who has won both of his starts this year while turning in a 0.79 ERA and 0.971 WHIP. All this great starting pitching is trouble for a Mariners team that has now scored three runs or fewer in 9 of its 13 games so far.  Unless Felix Hernandez is out there, they simply won't win many games with that kind of offensive production.  Go with the Tribe here.

Salazar is also 12-6 all-time here at Progressive Field where he has yet to pitch in 2016.  His first start came in chilly Chicago and while the pitch count was high, Salazar allowed only one run on two hits. He was even better last Thursday in Tampa Bay, delivering six scoreless innings of shutout ball w/ nine strikeouts.  The team won those games by a combined 13-1 margin.  Salazar's strikeout numbers for his career are very impressive as he averages 9.95 K's per nine innings, thus I imagine he'll have little difficulty mowing down a Mariners lineup that has struck out 33 times in the last three games and is batting a collective .219 for the year.

In contrast to Salazar, both of Taijuan Walker's starts thus far have come at home.  The Seattle starter has pitched well, but has yet to factor into a decision due to some bullpen issues. Here, he'll be running into a Cleveland lineup that is scoring 6.2 runs per game against right-handed starters.  Walker's margin for error here is quite slim as his team has dropped seven of its last 10 games and has only once scored more than four runs during that time. Cleveland is a team that I anticipate will be very good this season and thus I see them continuing to take care of business in this series.  They get a huge break not having to face Hernandez and it sounds like OF Lonnie Chisenhall could be in the lineup for the first time all season today, which is a strong addition to the lineup. 9* Cleveland

8* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET):  The White Sox are off a to strong start, upping their record to 9-5 following last night's commanding 5-0 shutout of the Angels.  This is a team that a lot of folks (myself among them) figured would improve in 2016. Meanwhile, the Halos are a team that I'm not high on - at all. Having Mike Trout on the roster somewhat clouds people's judgement about the club as a whole and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them finish in the cellar of the AL West. Today's pitching matchup is certainly slanted in favor of the home team, an advantage that they probably don't even need, but will gladly take. Go with Chicago here. 

Three starts into the season, we find Chicago's Chris Sale at a perfect 3-0 w/ a 2.75 ERA and 0.783 WHIP.  His last time out, I took him and he delivered a superb outing, a complete game two-hit shutout of the Rays where 71 of his 106 pitches were strikes. At one point, Sale retired 16 consecutive hitters.  Furthermore, the lefty has 23 strikeouts in 23 innings to this point in the season.  He figures to have a relatively easy time here w/ an Angels lineup that is batting a collective .225 this season, including .191 vs. southpaw starters. The task at hand is made easier by the fact that Trout, the Angels best hitter, is struggling mightily right now. Through 14 games, the former MVP is batting just .220 w/ a .673 OPS. He was 0 for 3 yday. Simply put, if Trout isn't hitting, the Angels are going to struggle to score runs this year.

The Angels didn't even get a hit until the fifth inning Tuesday and finished the game w/ only three total. Sale has had their number in the past, going 4-0 w/ a 1.73 ERA in five starts and has held Trout to 3 for 13 at the plate. This puts an undue burden on LA starter Garrett Richards, who already has an 0-3 TSR thanks to lousy run support.  The team has a -12 run differential right now, which is third worst in the entire American League. Remember that they were just swept by Minnesota, who was previously winless.  It's the Angels' ninth straight road game as well and a rare day game for them at US Cellular Field (first in four years).  I look for Sale and the White Sox to continue rolling. 8* Chi White Sox

8* Pittsburgh (10:10 ET):  The Pirates got off to that fast start by sweeping the Cardinals at home, but are now just 7-6 overall.  They did just beat Milwaukee two straight times over the weekend, however, and now get their first crack of the season at a San Diego team that's likely to be really bad this year. Of course, I shouldn't really have to rehash what happened to the Padres in their first series of 2016 (outscored 25-0) and while they were then able to somewhat turn things around w/ 29 runs scored in just two games at Colorado, they've lost six of eight since then, scoring five runs or less every time. Those struggles are unlikely to be corrected here, going up against a pitcher they've struggled to hit in the past.  Go with the Bucs.

Francisco Liriano was actually scratched from his last start, so he'll be working here with 10 days in between outings.  After throwing six scoreless innings of three-hit ball against St. Louis on Opening Day, Liriano struggled a bit vs. Cincinnati, issuing four walks and allowing five hits.  The team still won, mind you, 6-5. Expect little in the way of struggles tonight, however, as Liriano has a 1.74 ERA in his last five starts vs. San Diego, a team that has scored all of 15 runs in 10 games outside of Coors Field in 2016.  As a team, the Padres are batting just .185 at Petco this season while averaging just 1.7 runs per game.

The Pirates' offense, meanwhile, is leaving a lot of runners on base.  In fact, they've left a MLB-high 117 runners on base.  They had 17 hits in Sunday's win over Milwaukee and actually lead all of baseball in both batting average (.295) and OBP (.385).  That's very bad news for Padres starter Colin Rea, who didn't get much support his last time out and also was roughed up in his season debut (at Coors Field).   Pittsburgh took five of seven matchups from San Diego last season and the teams are no closer here in 2016.  8* Pittsburgh

8* Washington (7:10 ET):  After a 9-1 start, the Nationals have dropped B2B games, including one here in Miami last night by a score of 6-1.  But they also had to face Jose Fernandez Monday, in Miami, where Fernandez has lost only one time in his entire career.  Sunday's loss occurred in extra innings (in Philadelphia). Two of their three losses this year have come at the hands of the Marlins as there was also a 6-4 setback back on April 7th (home opener). Tonight, I'll call for them to bounce back with Stephen Strasburg on the hill as he's looked very good in his first two starts and we know who the better team is here. At +22, the Nats' run differential is 4th best in the league. Meanwhile, only one time has Miami been able to post B2B wins. 

After allowing just one run in six innings his first time out against Atlanta, Strasburg allowed just two (only only four hits) in 7 2/3 innings on Thursday.  I think people forget what a strong finish he had to 2015 and he now has a 13-2 TSR his L15 starts including a perfect 6-0 his last six.  He's had some difficulties dealing with Miami in his career, but he did beat them twice down the stretch in 2015.  Whether or not Strasburg is now actually using a slider, he seems to be a pitching better and has yet to give up a home run. 

Miami's Adam Conley was a major surprise his last time out, throwing six scoreless innings of four hit ball.  But the team still ended up losing 2-1 to the Mets.  That's an interesting contrast to his first start where he allowed three runs in one inning (to the Nationals), yet his team actually got the win there, 6-4.  If you're wondering why he lasted only one inning, there was a weather delay.  The Washington offense, while silent the last two games, is still among the league leaders w/ 52 runs (best in the division), but more important has been the run prevention side of the ledger as they've given up only 30 in 12 games. That's owed to a bullpen that's been much better than it was last year, so Strasburg should get the requisite support from both his offense and relievers that you'd be looking for. 8* Washington

10* Over Celtics/Hawks (8:05 ET):  Game 1 was a brutal beat for Atlanta backers as a 19-point lead quickly evaporated and it ended up being only a one-point win, which was not good enough to cover the 5.5-pt spread. But the worse break over the long-term clearly was the injury to Avery Bradley for Boston, which has many now questioning the Celtics viability in this series. The spread is higher for Game 2, so I'm laying off there (bettors still liking Boston plus the points though), but the total has my eye as the loss of Bradley hurts the underdog defensively more than anything else. He is their best perimeter defender and once he left the game Saturday night, Atlanta's Jeff Teague had a field day. That continues here. Take the Over. 

Game 1 saw 203 total points scored and nearly went Over despite poor shooting from both sides.  Boston was just 36.3% overall from the floor (11 of 35 from three-point range) and had only 34 points at halftime.  Atlanta shot just 40.7% overall and missed 22 of 27 three-point attempts. It's highly likely that not just one, but both teams will see their shooting improve tonight.  The Celtics led the Eastern Conference in scoring during the regular season (105.7 PPG) and generally gets its contributions from multiple players, not just one, though Isaiah Thomas leads the way w/ 22.2 PPG.  The Hawks average 103.5 PPG at home and will clearly benefit moving forward w/ Bradley off the floor, Teague in particular. Teague finished w/ 23 points and 12 assists in Game 1 and saw his production increase the minute Bradley left.

The Celtics give up 104.5 points per game on the road.  It will be interesting to see if they go big or small w/o Bradley. With Kelly Olynyk's shoulder still bothering him, going small seems to be the more likely option. I would say that opens the door for the likes of Paul Milsap, who put up big numbers in the regular season vs. Boston.  As for the question of how many points will the Celtics score, note that they've scored at least 100 points in all but one game in April.  There have been only three times in the last 27 games that they failed to score at least 98 points. Look for them to find a way to replace Bradley's offensive production, but not so much on the other end of the floor. 10* Over Celtics/Hawks

10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET):  A 1-0 lead is by no means rock solid, but things appeared to be going just fine for the Penguins in Game 2.  They had taken Game 1 of this series and had the aforementioned lead midway through the second period.  Then, the worst case scenario happened and that was backup goaltender Jeff Zatkoff (only in because of injury to Marc-Andre Fleury) gave up three goals in less than a five-minute span and then another just 39 seconds into the third period. At the other end of the ice, Henrik Lundqvist was between the pipes for the Rangers, who did what they needed to do and that was split the two games in Pittsburgh. But I would still favor the Pens in this series and think they are undervalued for Game 3.

Injuries have been a major storyline in this series so far, not just in goal, but w/ star skaters as well. Evgeni Malkin returned for the Penguins in Game 2 and now the Rangers may be getting their captain, Ryan McDonagh, back. But let's focus back on the goaltending situation.  It could be Zatkoff going again, unless Fleury or Matt Murray is fully recovered from their respective head injuries. Aside from a bad stretch of about 10 minutes Saturday, Zatkoff has been just fine in this series.  He still has the more talented team in front of him as let's not forget that the Pens were arguably the league's hottest team down the stretch.  Among playoff teams, the Rangers actually rank last in both Corsi (25th) and Fenwick (23rd), so they're not a very good possession team and in fact were outshot in Game 2 (31-28).

Something else to keep an eye on is the fact that Pittsburgh has already scored three power play goals in the series.  During the regular season, they ranked just 16th in the league when having the man advantage (16.4 percent), so this is a real "added bonus" for them.  It's likely owed to the Rangers' awful penalty killing, which ranked just 26th (78.2%) during the regular season.  While Lundqvist is rightfully viewed as the best goaltender in this series, it should be noted that the Rangers were 15th in goals allowed during the regular season and the Penguins were sixth. I realize with a backup goaltender in there, it's a bit of a different story, but nevertheless I'm on the Pens in Game 3.  10* Pittsburgh

9* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET):  I've had a pretty good pulse on this series so far, winning both Games 2 and 3 and did so by backing each team one time. The home team continues to dominate this Atlantic Division rivalry, now having taken all seven matchups this season. But despite being shut out in Game 3 Sunday, the Lightning are still the far better team here, at least in my opinion.  Returning home, down 0-2 in the series, Detroit was desperate when I took them on Sunday.  Not wanting to fall down 3-1 and have to go back to Tampa Bay for Game 5, they still will be here, but I just can't get past the fact that the Red Wings posted the worst goal differential among playoff teams during the regular season. The decision to go back to Jimmy Howard in goal also seems to be curious.

For Game 3, a decision was made by Detroit HC Jeff Blashill to go w/ Petr Mrazek in goal. Mrazek only faced 16 shots, but he stopped them all and that's what counts. His counterpart Howard faced a combined 65 in the first two games, but allowed eight goals and that's what makes the decision to go back to him for Game 4 so curious.  Howard's save percentage over his last four starts is just .872, which is terrible. I suppose Blashill could end up going w/ Mrazek again, but he too has a save percentage below .900 his L4 starts.  You figure that whomever is in goal for the Red Wings will be tested more than what we saw in Game 3. The bottom line is that the Lightning have a big edge between the pipes in this series w/ Ben Bishop, who has a .930 save percentage on the road. 

Detroit has outshot Tampa Bay in all three games and the Lightning are dealing with injuries. But that's about the only things that the Red Wings have going for them as I'm not sure they will be able to again slow down Tampa's top line (15 points in first two games) or solve Bishop. The Red Wings penalty killing has kept them in the hunt thus far (13 of 14 in the series) as their power play has really struggled (1 for 17) including an 0-7 mark on Sunday.  They ranked just 23rd in goals scored during the regular season and have tallied exactly two in five straight games.  The Lightning are 14-7 this year off a loss by 2+ goals. 9* Tampa Bay

8* Cleveland (6:10 ET):  The Indians were embarrassed at home on Sunday, losing 6-0 to the Mets as Corey Kluber shockingly fell to 0-3.  The Tribe are 5-2 in all other games though and here they welcome in a Seattle team that's 5-7 overall. I'm actually high on both of these teams in 2016, but here I'm backing Cleveland as I really like their starter Carlos Carrasco and not his counterpart Wade Miley for the Mariners.  The Indians have gone 12-7 the last two seasons when coming off a shutout loss and should bounce back from Sunday's disaster as they are also 3-1 off a loss this year. Aside from three outbursts, the M's offense has not been good so far, scoring three runs or less in the other nine games.

Cleveland has had to face a lot of lefty starters thus far as in six in the first 10 games. They haven't had much luck against southpaws, but they've also had to deal with a number of good ones, like Chris Sale and David Price.  Wade Miley is not anywhere close to that level and in fact has given up 11 runs in 12 innings to this point and his last time out, the team lost 8-0 (to the Rangers).  On the road last year, pitching for Boston, Miley really struggled w/ a 1.584 WHIP.  It's not a good sign then that he struggled so badly at home his last time out.  Note that the Tribe are averaging 6.2 runs per game vs. LH starters, so expect them to bounce back from a disastrous showing against Steven Matz on Sunday.

  As alluded to above, Seattle's offense is not doing much right now as they are batting a collective .216 the last seven games.  In the last eight games, they've totaled just 22 runs and that includes one seven-run effort.  They've also struck out 25 times the last two games.  That's bad news facing a pitcher like Carrasco, who has always had an outstanding strikeout ratio (216 K's in 183.2 IP last season). Carrasco posted an 8-1 KW ratio in his last start, a quality outing that saw him allow just one run on four hits in 8 IP.   It resulted in a 4-1 win at Tampa Bay.  I expect this to be another win as the Indians bounce back at home. 8* Cleveland

8* Under Rockets/Warriors (10:35 ET): If Houston is going to only score 78 points like they did in Game 1, then the NBA might as well go ahead and cancel this series because Golden State will win every game easily.  Saturday saw the Warriors race out to a 6-0 lead and never look back, going up 33-15 by the end of the first quarter and pushing the lead as high as 28 points. Of course, the big story heading into Game 2 is centered around Steph Curry's ankle, which seems to give the Rockets "new life," but I still wouldn't feel comfortable endorsing the underdog in the current price range.  Considering how far Game 1 fell short of the posted total (by 42.5 points!) and Curry's ankle, I see the Under as the smart play here especially considering how playoff games w/ high totals have historically stayed Under.

Saturday's game was the ninth highest total for any NBA playoff game going back to '07.  Given Houston's tendency to play awful defense and Golden State's offensive prowess, that made at least a little sense.  But at no point did the teams threaten to go Over the total as neither shot the ball that well (though the Warriors were 10 of 25 from three-point range) and there were 20 missed free throws. Golden State's offense clearly slowed down in the second half when they were up big and w/o Curry.  The MVP is currently listed as questionable for tonight and did not practice on Sunday.  If he does play, he won't be 100% and thus it stands to reason that the Warriors offensive production will suffer as a result. You might be surprised to learn that the Under is 8-4 in the Warriors' last 12 games where the total is 218 pts or higher.

Houston will probably score more tonight than they did in Game 1, but the question is how much more.  The Under is now 9-2 the L11 times that they have been a road underdog of at least 12.5 points.  This is still a pretty high total by their standards as well as the Under has cashed for them five of the last six times the total has been 215 pts or higher.  While there is a precedent for a "Curry-less" matchup between the Warriors & Rockets (one took place on 12.31) and the result there is not what we would want to see (GSW won 114-110), I do not anticipate seeing that much scoring tonight.  8* Under Rockets/Warriors

10* Dallas (8:35 ET):  The Stars seem to be in "full control" of this series and I see no reason why that will change even as the scene shifts to Minnesota for Game 3.  The Wild are not only down 0-2 to the Stars, but also dropped their final five regular season contests. In none of those seven games have they scored more than two goals. That's problematic when facing the highest scoring team in the league, obviously, and overall Dallas has now won eight of its last nine. (The only loss came to what was - at the time - a red hot Anaheim team, on the road).  Dallas has now won six of seven against Minnesota this year, outscoring them 21-12. I would not be surprised at all to see this series end up being a sweep.

During its current seven-game losing streak, the Wild have scored a grand total of seven goals, including only two in the last four games. That makes it a near impossibility to beat a team like the Stars that averages 3.2 per game. Dallas goaltender Kari Lehtonen has been sharp of late, not only stopping 47 of 48 shots in this series, but he's also posted a 1.41 goals against average his last five starts overall.  The Stars are 3-0 in Minnesota this year and have scored at least four goals in every game.  Note that the Wild's one win in Dallas came in a game where Lehtonen did not play.  In the four full games that Lehtonen has played against the Wild this year, he's stopped of 106 of 112 shots.

I should mention the controversial goal that ended up being the game winner for the Stars in Game 2. Obviously, that was a huge deal, but I don't think it necessarily means that the Wild could have - or would have - won Saturday.  They still need to find ways to score and right now that's simply not happening. Their leading scorer Zach Parise remains out indefinitely, so the task is that much harder.  Minnesota is just 8-13 this season after scoring one or zero goals in their previous game.  I look for the Stars to take an insurmountable 3-0 series lead tonight.  10* Dallas

9* Milwaukee (8:10 ET):  Somebody break up the Twins! After starting 0-9, they just swept the Angels here at home and in the process, scored as many runs in those three wins (14) as they did in their nine losses.  But those expecting this club to even get back to mediocrity this season are going to be sorely disappointed.  Previously, I'd written how the team was favored on the money line in just 35 out of 162 games last season. Tonight will be the the third time this season and while that may not sound significant, it was the Twins consistently being mispriced that caused them to turn such a profit in 2015. I anticipate the opposite being true this season and such is the case here as they are overvalued coming into this series vs. Milwaukee. 

The National League got hammered in Interleague play last season, but outside of a 1-5 mark vs. the Tigers is off to a much better start this year (7-3 in all other games). Milwaukee has already taken two of three from Houston and this is a much weaker opponent on paper. The Brew Crew have dropped four of their last six, but having played at both Pittsburgh and St. Louis that probably was to be expected.  Last year saw them take four of six from the Twins and that includes two of three here at Target Field.  Since the start of the 2014 season, Minnesota is just 17-23 vs. the National League.

The fact that Chase Anderson is starting for Milwaukee here is definitely an encouraging bit of news. Through two starts, Anderson has yet to allow a single earned run (three unearned his last time out, all in the first inning) and has put just 10 runners on base in 11 innings.  The team won both starts, by identical 6-4 scores, over Houston and St. Louis.  I certainly give Anderson the edge here over Twins starter Phil Hughes, who has an 0-2 team start record thus far despite two quality starts.  Hughes has posted subpar numbers in five of the last six seasons and I really don't see any signs of him turning things around in 2016.  The Twins are 11-19 the last three seasons when off three consecutive victories. 9* Milwaukee

8* Washington (7:05 ET):  Though all we've seen so far is the Capitals "take care of business" on home ice, one gets the sense that this series is "all over but the shouting" as what shaped up as the biggest mismatch of the first round on paper has lived up to that advanced billing. The Caps have outscored the Flyers 6-1 in the first two games and have done so despite not having the edge in the total number of shots on goal.  Obviously, Washington got one favorable goal in Game 2, one that somehow snuck past Steve Mason despite coming from center ice. But that still leaves a 5-1 edge in goals for the favorites thus far and Philly couldn't even score either time the Caps were down to three skaters on the ice because of penalties. The series simply shifting to Philadelphia is not enough for the Flyers here.

The Caps had the second most road wins in the league during the regular season (27), trailing only San Jose.  One would have to imagine that the Flyers will not enjoy a 42-23 edge in shots like they had in Game 2 and considering they not only lost, but lost 4-1, under those conditions is not a good sign. They had as many shots on goal in the first period Saturday as they had in all of Game 1 and still couldn't crack Braden Holtby, who tied a league record w/ 48 wins during the regular season while posting a save percentage higher than .920.  Holtby has stopped 60 of the 61 shots he's faced in this series and is clearly playing better than his counterpart Mason, who has given up six goals on just 54 shots. 

With Holtby in goal, the Capitals were 23-10 on the road during the regular season.  It really can't be understated just how superior they have been this year compared to the Flyers.  While Washington ranked second in the league in both goals scored and allowed, Philadelphia finished the regular season with a negative goal differential. They were one of only two playoff teams to have that distinction. Don't forget that the underdog is also playing without Sean Couturier for the remainder of the series.  The one win Philly had over Washington at home during the regular season came via shootout, a format that does not apply here. Mason is probably still shaken by allowing that fluke goal and when it comes to special teams, the Caps have a big edge there as well, especially when on the power play.  8* Washington

10* Over Pacers/Raptors (7:05 ET): Not to "pat myself on the back," but my Game 1 analysis (where I called for an Indiana cover & got a SU win) was pretty "spot on." I noted how Toronto came into this series overvalued based on the notion that "this is their year" (to get out of the first round). I said that it was the Pacers who had the best player (Paul George) and he responded w/ a great game Saturday, leading the way w/ 33 points. Meanwhile, it had to be a case of bad "deja vu" for the Raptors as their two best players - Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan - combined for only 25 points on a horrific 8 of 32 shooting. That pretty much negated the fact that the rest of the team was a more than respectable 22 of 47 from the floor and that the Raptors enjoyed a sizable edge in rebounding, particularly on the offensive end.

While, historically speaking, this spot would seem to be conducive to Toronto bouncing back w/ a win and cover, I didn't like the spread for Game 1, so I certainly can't endorse them as a (potentially) larger favorite for Game 2.  Thus, it's time to take a look at the total.  Game 1 staying Under is almost exclusively owed to the Raptors' poor shooting as not only were they just 38% overall, including 21.1% from three-point range, but they also missed 12 of 38 free throw attempts. Again, Lowry (last year's playoff goat) and DeRozan were the primary culprits with the duo missing all but one 3-pt attempt and Lowry going just 4 of 9 from the line. I anticipate both players shooting better tonight. One good thing is that following a double-digit loss, the Over is 22-6 for the Raptors, including 8-2 this season.

In my Game 1 analysis, I also wrote about how poor Toronto was during the regular season at defending the three-point line.  Indiana ended up finishing 11 of 21 from behind the arc and I envision them being effective again tonight in that department.  While the Under is now 3-2 in the five Pacers-Raptors matchups this season, Saturday's game was actually the lowest scoring of the bunch and every regular season meeting would have gone Over tonight's total. Indiana is 17-6 Over in road games when the O/U line is 190 to 194.5 including a perfect 3-0 this season. 10* Over Pacers/Raptors

6* NY Mets (7:10 ET):  The Mets certainly surprised me yday, jumping all over Corey Kluber early en route to a 6-0 win. It's hardly been a great start to the year for the reigning National League champs, but this series vs. Philadelphia offers up an excellent opportunity to "get things going" in the right direction.  The Phillies are obviously a major surprise at 6-7 and off a win yday (in extra innings) over the Nationals. But they have been outscored by 18 runs this year, indicating that they are nowhere near as good as that record. It's important to remember that this was one of the two worst teams in baseball last season and they're expected to be near the bottom again in 2016.  Go w/ the Mets in the series opener.

New York was 14-5 against Philadelphia last season, but dropped two of three to them in a series that took place a little over a week ago. One of those Phillies' victories came by a 1-0 score behind Vince Velasquez (who starts tomorrow).  Mets hitters were far more successful against Jerad Eickhoff, scoring three times off of him in five innings en route to a 7-2 victory. Once again, they draw Eickhoff in the series opener. Eickhoff was far more effective in his last start, but that was against the light-hitting Padres.  Remember that the Mets were one of the highest scoring road teams in the league last season. They are 4.4 runs per game away from home this year and just totaled 17 runs in winning the series in Cleveland over the weekend.

The Mets will be giving the baseball to Noah Syndergaard this evening and he has looked quite good in his two starts thus far, especially the last one, even though his team lost.  Going up against Jose Fernandez and the Marlins, Syndergaard tossed seven strong innings where he allowed just one run and recorded 12 strikeouts. But it wasn't enough as Miami won the game 2-1.  Syndergaard didn't allow any runs in his first start and just three hits over six innings (9-1 KW ratio), which was 2-0 win at Kansas City.  I expect him to mow down the Phillies lineup in short order as he won both starts against them in 2015, striking out 15 batters in 12 1/3 innings.  6* NY Mets

8* Anaheim (10:35 ET):  Though at times it can be flawed logic (just ask the Kings!), I simply cannot see the Ducks dropping both games on home ice to the Predators. I have to say that I was pretty stunned to see Nashville come in and take Game 1, especially having to come back from a one-goal deficit. The difference ended up being a Filip Forsberg goal halfway through the third period that held up as the game winner.  While this series is going to be by no means "easy" for Anaheim, there still is the fact that they finished the regular season #1 in goals allowed, #1 on the power play and #1 in penalty killing. They are too good of a team to drop two in a row on home ice. After all, they have posted the league's best record since Christmas. Look for this series to be evened up after tonight. 

The Preds got to play a relatively home-heavy schedule down the stretch as this will actually be only their fourth road game since 3.21. They'd dropped four in a row on the road prior to Game 1 and hadn't won here in Anaheim since 2014.  They last won B2B road games in late February and that stretch included games at Toronto and Montreal.  They have a losing road record for the season and it was a bit of a surprise to see goaltender Pekka Rinne play so well in Game 1, given that his save percentage over his last four starts still is below .900.  Meanwhile, we know goaltending is a real strength for Anaheim and Nashville only averages 2.5 gpg on the road.

Anaheim goaltenders have a collective save percentage of .929 here at home and that's even factoring in four bad starts by Anton Khudobin. John Gibson could stop only 30 of 33 shots in Game 1, but that's more than he typically faces.  This is a team that doesn't lose B2B games often, in fact, they've had just three losing streaks since January 1st.  I'm going to lean on what I've seen from this team over the last several months and call for them to even up the series. 8* Anaheim

8* LA Dodgers (8:05 ET): I think that MLB's two most famous franchises out on the West Coast are going to be just fine in 2016.  Both the Giants and Dodgers come into tonight's nationally televised affair at 7-5 as they have split the first two games of this three-game set. San Francisco won yday, 4-3, on the arm of Johnny Cueto, who retired the first 13 batters he saw en route to 7 1/3 strong innings.  But tonight, it's Los Angeles that figures to have the stronger starter, that being Kenta Maeda, who through two starts has yet to even give up a single run! Also, while these rivals sport identical records, the Dodgers have a run differential that's twice as good (+22 to +11), which should tell you right there who is off to the better start to the season.

Though he's gone "only" six innings in both starts, this Maeda appears to be as good as advertised.  He's issued only one walk and just 10 hits, so his WHIP is 0.917.  Now this will be the first time that he's worked with catcher Yasmani Grandal, but given Grandal's excellent pitch framing ability, I do not anticipate this being any sort of problem. According to Elias, no pitcher in the modern era has started his career w/ three consecutive scoreless outings of 6+ innings, so there could be some regression, but it will be minimal. Plus, I like the fact that the Dodgers are an impressive 89-55 after a loss since the start of the 2014 seasons.  The offense is also averaging a healthy 5.2 runs per game so far.

San Francisco counters w/ Jeff Samardzija, the other big FA acquisition besides Cueto.  This will be the first game of the series where the pitching matchup isn't a rematch from the prior series at AT&T Park where the Giants took three of four. Both of LA's wins over San Fran this year have come in the high profile Kershaw vs. Bumgarner battles, but this will be the Giants first time seeing Maeda. As for Samardzija, he's been just "okay" so far, pitching against what are perceived to be two "bad" teams (Colorado & Milwaukee). This is his third time starting on the road. Remember that he comes off a very frustrating season where his ERA was nearly 5.00. He's allowed 14 hits and five walks to this point (in just 13 1/3 IP) and the Giants offense has actually been relatively held in check the last four games, Buster Posey in particular as he's 0 for his last 12 at the plate. While third in runs scored and fifth in slugging, Giants hitters are just 13 in on base percentage.  I've got the home team winning this one. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Detroit (7:05 ET):  Down 0-2 in the series, this is pretty much "do or die" for the Red Wings here at home as the likelihood of them erasing a 3-0 series deficit against the Lightning seems pretty far-fetched. Fortunately, as I said, this game is on home ice.  Now I did back Tampa Bay in Game 2 and they came through w/ a 5-2 victory as their immensely talented top-line that I talked about, came through in a major way. But, interestingly enough, the Red Wings actually finished w/ the edge in shots (32-31) and that was also the case in Game 1 (36-34).  The series shifting to the Motor City is a pretty big deal as the Wings are 22-13-6 here (as opposed to 19-19-5 on the road) while the Lightning have dropped 14 of their past 20 visits. That includes both this season. 

The last four games these teams have played all took place in Tampa Bay in all have resulted in Lightning victories. So that makes the home team a perfect 6-0 in the season series.  It's been said that a series truly doesn't begin until the home team drops a game, so Detroit probably isn't in as bad of shape as some might think. They are 11-3-1 at Joe Louis Arena since the All-Star Break.  Players need to step up and a key difference here is that HC Jeff Blashill will be going with Petr Mrazek in goal, perhaps the option that he should have turned to at the outset of the series.  Mrazek has a better save percentage over the course of the season compared to Jimmy Howard (.921 to .905), who started both Games 1 and 2. 

Though the penalty killing unit has been solid for Detroit through two games (10 of 11), giving up 11 power plays is hardly ideal. At the same time, the power play needs to get going as it is just 1 for 10 in the series. The Red Wings' special teams were decidedly mediocre during the regular season, but one good thing for the next two games is the fact that Tampa Bay was dead last in the league in terms of the number of power play goals scored on the road (13) and converting on just 10.1 percent of opportunities, they were really bringing up the rear.  After playing their last four games all out on the road, Detroit should be really fired up here and Tampa Bay has a losing record in games after they scored four or more goals.   10* Detroit

10* Charlotte (5:35 ET):  Similar to the Toronto-Indiana series, this is one where I feel that the lower seed is being undervalued and in this instance, dramatically so.  Miami may have finished third in the East, which is in line w/ where they are in terms of the oddsmakers' pecking order, but they actually ranked sixth in both point differential (+1.6) and efficiency (+2.6) in the East during the regular season. That's behind a very underrated Hornets squad (+2.7, +3.3) that also happened to post the best record in the East after the All-Star Break (21-8 straight up). Thus, anything above the token three points for home court advantage is a value on Charlotte, who I give a very good shot at not only pulling the outright upset here, but in the series as well.  Take the points in Game 1.

Checking in on the personnel department, the Heat will be w/o Chris Bosh for the rest of the season, no matter how long that lasts. I realize that a number of other players - notably Joe Johnson and Hassan Whiteside - stepped up down the stretch, but not having Bosh is still a big deal. Coach Spo has been relying on a pair of rookies - Justise Winslow & Josh Richardson - to play 20+ minutes off the bench. Relying on rookies in the playoffs is not a winning formula. Meanwhile, I realize that Charlotte is fairly inexperienced themselves (franchise has never even won ONE playoff game in its history), but they received some good news on Friday when it became apparent that Nic Batum (team's best two-way player) would be able to play normal minutes after missing three of the final six regular season games.

Looking back to the four regular season matchups between these two, it was a 2-2 split w/ each team winning once on the other's floor. The most recent meeting saw Charlotte come here and prevail 109-106 w/ an identical spread. What's impressive about that win is that Miami shot 53.3 percent from the floor and had a 15-pt lead in the first half. I don't see that happening again. To come full circle, I'll reference Toronto-Indiana again and point out that like that series w/ Paul George, this one sees the underdog team having the best player on the floor (Kemba Walker). 10* Charlotte

10* Under Hornets/Heat (5:35 ET):  Each of the last eight times that Charlotte has paid a visit to South Beach, the Over has cashed. I'll call for that streak to come to an end in Game 1 of this best of seven series, however, as those were all regular season matchups and the playoffs are an entirely different animal.  It is interesting that the total for Sunday's game is lower than what it was in the final regular season matchup (109-106 Hornets win here in Miami), but it was also bet down early and I'm going to follow the money.  The Heat were one of the top Under teams during the regular season (47-34-1 in all games) and as underrated as they may be, I don't see the Hornets continuing to average 110.6 PPG  as they did over their final five regular season games (Over was 5-0).  Take the Under in Gm 1.

Four of those last five games for Charlotte saw them top 110 points.  But three came against non-playoff foes (Knicks, Nets, Magic) that were not interested in playing much defense.  The Heat will be as they gave up only 98.4 points per game during the regular season (5th in the league) and that number dips even a little lower here at home.  Meanwhile, it should be no surprise to find that Charlotte's scoring average dips on the road as they score about four fewer points per game compared to at home.  The Hornets aren't a great shooting team by an means (43.2 FG% on the road) and will absolutely have to work for whatever they can get offensively in this game and series.  For the record, prior to the final two games of the reg season, the Under had been 7-1 this year for Charlotte when they were coming off three consecutive Overs. They also failed to break 100 pts in three of the four regular season meetings with Miami.

I expect Miami to struggle offensively in this game and potentially series as well. Yes, there was a major transformation at that end of the court once the team acquired Joe Johnson at the trade deadline.  But they still ended up averaging only 100 PPG (on the nose) and ended up being one of just four teams (Knicks, Spurs, Jazz) in the entire league whose games averaged fewer than 200 points.  Charlotte is very underrated defensively as HC Steve Clifford has always gotten his team to play hard at that end of the floor.  I expect no different here.  10* Under Hornets/Heat

10* Oakland (4:05 ET):  Saturday figured to be the day that the A's broke through against the Royals as they sent ace Sonny Gray to the hill and he wound up delivering a pretty strong outing en route to his team prevailing 5-3. Today, I'll call for the A's to make it B2B wins over the reigning World Series champs as this is a team that I truly believe was much better than their record last year and thus is set to improve.  No longer can there be any doubt that Kansas City is good, but they've also been a little fortunate in 2016 in the sense that they already own four one-run victories. Oakland was last in the league in that department a year ago (19-35 in one-run games!) and is "due" to start catching some breaks.

One such one-run victory for KC came in Kris Medlen's first start.  Though Medlen allowed six hits and issued four walks in just five innings of work, he got away with allowing only two runs and the team did beat Houston 3-2.  Medlen has now won all five of his road starts with KC, posting a 1.95 ERA, but I'm still not sold as his ERA in four home starts was 7.59, which means this is simply an inconsistent starter.  The Oakland lineup that he'll face today has had it's fair share of struggles in this early part of the season, but last night's 10-hit performance was encouraging and there's simply no way they continue to average fewer than three runs per game.  Also set to improve is the club's 2-7 home record.

Chris Bassitt will be the starter this afternoon for Oakland and he is coming off a win over Felix Hernandez and Seattle last Sunday. Though he did walk five batters, Bassitt allowed only one unearned run and three hits through seven innings as the team prevailed 2-1. Obviously, he's well rested and I like that he's had two extra days in between starts compared to Medlen.  Kansas City has yet to drop B2B games this season, but they're not the Golden State Warriors and this isn't the NBA. It's going to happen sooner rather than later and I'll call for that time to be today as another record that's due to improve is the A's 4-12 mark against the Royals since the start of 2014.  10*Oakland

8* Cleveland (1:10 ET): The Indians evened this Interleague series up at a game apiece via a 7-5 win on Saturday and in doing so handed Matt Harvey his third consecutive loss to open 2016. Both of these teams came into the season with World Series aspirations, yet quite frankly the early returns have been mediocre at best. The Mets are now 4-6 and forget about the disappointing starting rotation, it's been the offense (or more precisely a "lack of it") that's been the real issue here. The reigning Senior Circuit champs are batting a collective .218 entering Sunday w/ an on base percentage of .294.  Given the pitcher that they're facing here today (former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber), I do not like their chances.

With the names "Matz" and "Kluber" on the Progressive Field marquee Sunday, you wouldn't expect to see the kind of numbers that, sadly, are a reality for both starting pitchers. Matz first start of 2016 was a complete disaster as he allowed seven runs to Miami w/o even getting out of the second inning.  That's "good enough" for a 37.72 ERA and 4.790 WHIP if you're keeping score at home. Kluber, meanwhile, has a 4.85 ERA and 1.308 WHIP after two starts, both Cleveland losses. The 2014 Cy Young winner was the biggest money losing starter in all of baseball last year, which seemed odd due to the fact his numbers stayed pretty consistent. Just yday, Harvey showed that no pitcher is immune to losing streaks, but suffice to say that it's "high time" that Kluber got back on track.

Tribe hitters haven't exactly given Kluber a ton of support either as they've totaled only three runs for him thus far. But yesterday saw them bust loose for seven runs and note that it was a 7-1 game heading into the eighth inning. This lineup now has 11+ hits in three consecutive games, scoring 18 runs during that span.  Note that Kluber wasn't exactly terrible his last time out; he had given up only one run on three hits, in fact, over seven innings on Tuesday against Tampa Bay. But then came a two-run homer and that was all she wrote. But one thing in particular has me leaning to Kluber here and that's the fact he's dominated National League foes to the tune of 10-1 w/ a 1.81 ERA in 12 career starts. That, coupled with the notion that he's due to start progressing to the mean in terms of net units, leads me to believe the Indians are a strong play today. 8* Cleveland

8* Dallas (9:35 ET): The first round in the Western Conference seems like a colossal waste of time as each of the top four seeds are very likely to advance with little difficulty. However, that doesn't mean that the underdogs in these respective series won't provide some value and that's the case here w/ Dallas in Game 1 at Oklahoma City.  The Thunder posted the worst ATS record of any playoff team during the regular season - second worst overall (ahead of only Chicago) - at 35-44-3.  That includes a 31-38 mark when favored.  OKC did take all four regular season matchups from the Mavs, but two of those were decided by just three points. I just don't agree with this being a double digit spread. Take the points.

Rick Carlisle is an underrated piece of this series.  You have to give the Dallas HC a big edge over his counterpart, OKC's Billy Donovan, who has never coached an NBA playoff game before. Two years ago, Carlisle was able to get his team to take a much more talented San Antonio squad (that won the NBA Finals) to seven games in the first round.  Carlisle definitely earned his paycheck down the stretch as he got his injury-riddled team to start playing defense and sure enough the Mavs come into the playoffs having held nine straight opponents under 100 points.  I expect them to continue to slow the pace down in this series, thereby limiting the total number of possessions, as any smart underdog should.

Dallas is 5-2 ATS here in April and both losses came by single digits to two of the top four teams in the West, the Clippers and Spurs.  So they definitely seem to be in "good form" here.  They've also won four of their last five road games.  It is quite rare to find this team taking this many points.  Since the start of March, they've been double digit dogs just once and they covered (at Golden State) easily at +16.5 (lost by only eight). A lot of the Thunder's recent double digit spreads were a byproduct of teams resting players, but it bears mentioning that last month saw them fail to cover at Philadelphia (-15.5) and they also lost outright here at home vs. Minnesota (-12).  There is no way Dallas should be in the same price range as Minnesota. 8* Dallas

10* Cub Swanson (10:00 ET):  This will be the first fight on the main card on FOX.  The veteran Swanson won six consecutive fights from 2012-14, but many are now quick to write him off following B2B losses inside the Octagon. But look at who those losses came against - Frankie Edgar and Max Holloway - two of the the top ten fighters at 145 lbs.  That's a level that tonight's opponent - Hacran Dias - simply is not at despite the relatively flashy 22-3-1 record.  Dias, who is just 2-2 his last four fights, is not really known as a fighter that is likely to finish his opponent (last 5 bouts have all gone to decision), so that's something we shouldn't have to worry about. Also, he hasn't demonstrated any kind of ability to beat top tier opponents. Swanson is the call here.

After the losses to Edgar and Holloway, Swanson has been off for almost exactly one year.  So, he comes into tonight fresh and with something to prove.  Note that the losses to Edgar and Holloway - both by submission - saw Swanson falter late as both fights ended in the final minute.  Granted, he was down on the cards both times anyway, but I don't think those losses were as bad as they might seem.  Dias has not submitted a fighter since 2011, pre-UFC.  If Swanson can keep this fight standing, then he has the advantage w/ striking plus he is generally regarded as the better defensive fighter.

Dias last fight was close as it was a split decision victory over Levan Makashvilli back in June. Though he did take the first two rounds, it was hardly an impressive performance.  There was little action in the fight and brought boos from the crowd. I wonder if that has an effect on Dias here and he perhaps gets caught being "too" aggressive?  Were it not for the fact that Dias is on a two-fight win streak and Swanson on a two-fight losing streak, Dias' odds would be a lot longer in this one.  The oddsmakers have this matchup mispriced and as a result the favorite is a really solid value.  10* Cub Swanson

10* Texas (8:05 ET): After cashing the Rangers in Thursday's series opener (just Baltimore's second loss of the season), I laid off last night and it's a good thing that I did as the O's prevailed in lopsided fashion, 11-5. But I'm back on the Rangers' bandwagon tonight as Orioles starter Yovani Gallardo should feel fortunate to have a 2-0 team start record given that he has a 5.40 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Last time out, he was shelled for five runs in five innings, but lucky that the offense backed him up in a 9-7 win over Boston (rare bad outing by David Price).  Gallardo won't be as lucky here as he goes up against Colby Lewis, who has turned in B2B quality starts against Seattle to open the year.  I'm on Texas here.

Though on the road, Lewis was sharper the second time around vs. Seattle, giving up just one run and four hits in a 7-3 win Monday.  At one point, he retired 13 consecutive batters. Few expected this Rangers' rotation to be so strong, but in 12 games, no starter has allowed more than three earned runs and that level of performance means the team always has a shot to win.  You might be looking at the final score from last night and wonder how that's the case. Well, after six strong innings from starter Martin Perez, the bullpen allowed nine runs in a terrible seventh inning that saw Baltimore hit four home runs. I assure you that we won't be seeing that again. Texas is still 7-2 head to head vs. Baltimore since the start of last season.

If you recall, Gallardo pitched for the Rangers last season (won Gm 1 of the LDS), so emotions should be running high in both dugouts here.  But if Gallardo is anything like what we saw on Monday, then it doesn't matter what the emotion is.  I have to say that the Orioles are a major surprise at 8-2 (I had them pegged for last in the AL East) and these offensive numbers of theirs simply are not sustainable.  Meanwhile, the Rangers lineup is due to pick up after hitting only .197 so far here in Arlington.  The Orioles are giving up 5.4 runs per game on the road this year and have been right at that average through the first two games of this series. Look for Lewis to lead the charge and the offense to take care of Gallardo here. 10* Texas

10* Atlanta (7:05 ET):  I feel that the Hawks are being underrated heading into this best of seven series vs. the Celtics. They finished the regular season #2 in efficiency in the Eastern Conference (trailing only Cleveland) on the back of a defense that allows only 98.8 points per 100 possessions. Only one other team in the league allowed fewer than one point per possession and that was San Antonio.  Also of consequence here is that Boston is getting a sizable amount of the action (% of tickets written) despite being the road team. I realize that we all think of them as a gritty, underdog type team, but they're actually only 10-14 ATS this season when taking points. Under Brad Stevens, they've actually been mediocre - at best - when it comes to the betting window and NOT being in the second game of a back to back. I'm laying the points here.  

During Stevens' three-year tenure in Boston, no team has been better against the spread when playing w/o rest. But, curiously, the Celtics have struggled when playing w/ ample rest, including a 3-9 ATS mark this season when having exactly two days off between games.  Not having home court advantage in the first round is huge for Boston, who has a losing road record. That's actually owed to Atlanta losing on the final day of the regular season. Additionally, Jae Crowder, who is arguably the Celtics' best two-way player, is currently dealing w/ a high ankle sprain. Boston might be the highest scoring team in the Eastern Conference (105.7 PPG), but their offensive threat - Isaiah Thomas - is only 5'9" and an unlikely candidate to lead his team to any kind of real playoff success.

The Hawks beat the Celtics in three of the four regular season matchups, recording double digit victories in both home games.  Getting back to defense, Atlanta was able to hold Boston under 45% shooting in all four games this year. Offensively, three-point sharpshooter Kyle Korver finally seemed to regain his lost touch down the stretch by connecting on almost 45% of his attempts from behind the arc over the last 22 games.  Remember that Boston trailed by 24 - at home - in its regular season finale against Miami. 10* Atlanta

10* Houston (7:10 ET):  It took Dallas Keuchel pitching at home, but the Astros got back on track (well, sort of) w/ a 1-0 victory last night over the Tigers in the opener of a three-game set here at Minute Maid Park. Keuchel, as expected, was superb w/ eight scoreless innings. Tonight, it is Colin McHugh being charged w/ shutting down the Tigers lineup.  I actually played McHugh in his last start and boy did he come up big, delivering seven scoreless innings of his own against the defending World Series champion Royals. That was the last time that Houston had won prior to yesterday, but I'll call for them to make it B2B victories here as McHugh should pitch well again, especially in relation to his counterpart, Justin Verlander.

Houston has actually yet to win consecutive games this season. Their bullpen, newly acquired closer Ken Giles in particular, has generally been a disaster. But when you're getting a start like Keuchel's last night or McHugh's on Monday, that's not a factor.  Besides, those bullpen numbers should start to improve anyway. As for McHugh, that first start of the season was an aberration and not cause for concern (he allowed six runs and got only one hitter out). Last year saw him post a 3.39 ERA w/ over 350 IP and Monday saw 72 of his 102 pitches go for strikes, including 19 of 30 on the first pitch hitters saw. Last season saw McHugh post a 2.72 ERA in two starts vs. Detroit.

As mentioned previously, the Tigers counter w/ Verlander, who is coming off a miserable showing Monday vs. Pittsburgh.  Pitching at home, he gave up seven runs on 10 hits in just 4 1/3 IP.  While McHugh showed that you can bounce back from an outing like that, Verlander's best days are in the past.  The Astros offense is also due to get going as there's only one way for a .239 batting average and .312 batting average to go.  After losing three in a row at home to the Royals, this is a team due for a turnaround this weekend.  Keuchel got it started last night and McHugh will continue it here.  I'm just not sold on the Tigers' offense and its aging core being able to sustain the kind of numbers we've seen so far over the long haul. 10* Houston

9* Under Rangers/Penguins (3:05 ET):  This is our first 5.5 goal total of the playoffs and whether or not that number actually lasts, I expect a low-scoring affair here in Game 2 of the Rangers-Penguins series.  The big news coming out of Game 1, which was a 5-2 win for Pittsburgh, was the eye injury to Rangers' goaltender Henrik Lundqvist.  While still being called a "gametime decision," it does appear as if Lundqvist is going to be between the pipes and while that's obviously a huge deal for the team down 1-0 in the series, I'm on the Under regardless if it's Lundqvist or not.  I just don't see the Penguins scoring five goals again as their offense is due to "cool off," even if it's just for one game. Take the Under.

The Pens of course have their own situation going on between the pipes, that being Marc-Andre Fleury dealing with a concussion. He is probably going to be out again today, but that's okay as the unheralded Jeff Zatkoff came in and delivered a 35-save effort in Game 1.  Zatkoff has appeared in 15 games this season - 12 of them being starts - and he's posted a more than respectable .919 save percentage.  While this will be just his sixth appearance since the start of January, he's allowed two goals or less in four of the previous five. Obviously, if Fleury starts, I'm even more confident. As for Lundqvist, I think he'll be just fine as he's allowed just one goal in eight of his last nine postseason starts vs. Pittsburgh.  He played only 20 minutes in Gm 1 due to the eye injury and four of the Pens' five goals came after he left the game.

The two days off between games here is huge, not just because it allowed Lundqvist adequate time to recover, but also because the Rangers are 10-4 Under this season when having exactly two days off between games. I don't think that we'll be seeing another hat trick from Pittsburgh's Patric Hornqvist - or from any other player for that matter - today.  Something to consider is that five of the seven goals scored in Game 1 came in the third period, two on the power play (one from each) and another short-handed (which are rare).  Also, because the O/U line is almost always 5.0 for Rangers' games, the Over is 8-0-5 their L13 games. For Pittsburgh, the Over is 9-3-2 the Penguins' last 13 games. Both teams are due for an Under and while that one-half goal cushion we're getting might ultimately be the difference, I think we'll see even fewer than five goals scored here. 9* Under Rangers/Penguins

8* Seattle (1:00 ET):  Recently, I came across a case for Felix Hernandez being the "unluckiest" pitcher of all-time. It was rather convincing. Did you know that there have been 45 different times in King Felix's career where he's allowed zero runs or one run and didn't get the win? That's insane.  One such outing came his last time out as he blanked Oakland over seven innings (allowed just three hits) w/ 10 K's, yet the bullpen came in and blew the game. In two starts this year, Hernandez has a 0.69 ERA and 0.846 WHIP, but no wins to show for it. That's criminally unfair. I look for that to change though after this afternoon as he faces a Yankees lineup that was held to only one run yday by Nick Karns (Seattle won 7-1).

Hernandez has traditionally pitched well here at Yankee Stadium. In eight starts, he's gone 5-1 w/ a 1.38 ERA. Of course, his last start in the Bronx saw him end up on the wrong end of a 2-1 loss (he did not factor into the decision).  But I expect him and the Mariners to have a better result today considering how the Yankees have played recently (three straight losses). In those three straight losses, the Yankees offense has scored just five runs and has only 17 hits.  Plus, Hernandez has not gone winless through his first three starts of any season since '06. Simply put, he's due for a win. By the way, in his first start of the season, King Felix allowed only one hit in six innings yet the team still lost.  That's not right.

The Mariners' lineup has had its share of struggles vs. left-handed starters so far in 2016, but I think that they'll be able to get to CC Sabathia on Saturday. Last Saturday, I actually played the hefty lefty in his season debut as he went six strong innings while giving up only three runs on four hits. But he also issued four walks and got a lot of help from an offense, which has been in a slump ever since. It's important to remember that Sabathia posted the sixth worst ERA in all of baseball last season (4.73) and opponents hit .285 off of him.  As a home underdog in the +100 to +125 range, New York is only 9-16 the last three seasons. Though 4-6 this season, the Mariners are dead even in runs scored vs. allowed. Look for them to make it two in a row today. 8* Seattle

8* Indiana (12:30 ET):  Toronto seems to be getting a lot of "love" coming into the playoffs. The second seed in the East, many are perceiving this to be the year that the Raptors finally break through to the second round and possibly beyond. But let's pump the brakes a bit, shall we? Remember, this is a franchise that has all of ONE playoff win in its history and it came all the way back in 2001 (a 5-game series). I think that they got a much tougher draw than most people realize with Indiana as the difference between the #2 and #7 seeds in this conference isn't all that great. Toronto has covered 10 of the last 11 matchups, including five straight here North of the Border (also 5-0 straight up), but of the four times the teams played this year, it was actually the Pacers' one win that was the largest margin of victory.  Take the points.

A clear case can be made that the Pacers should have finished the regular season w/ a better record than just 45-37 straight up.  They were 0-7 SU in games that went to overtime, one of those losses occurring at home to Toronto.  They performed well in conference games, going 30-22 SU and 32-20 ATS, and when working on two days' rest they are 10-3 at the betting window.  The line moving just a tad in Toronto's direction seems to work in Indiana's favor as +6.5 to +9 seems to be their "sweet spot" as they're a perfect 4-0 ATS as a dog in that range, on the road.  This is a team that ended the regular season on a three-game SU/ATS win streak and they are 7-2 ATS off a SU dog win. What serves them well is a #3 ranking in defensive efficiency (Toronto is 11th).

Not only have the Raptors failed to advance in the playoffs, they have struggled to cover games w/ a 2-8 ATS mark the last two years.  They have NEVER won a Game 1 in any series, ever. Similar to last year, their best player (Kyle Lowry) is going through a shooting slump at the worst possible time as the point guard is just 32.1 percent from the floor since 3.20.  DeMarre Carroll, acquired to be the team's defensive stopper, is not 100 percent either. Toronto often struggles to defend the three-point line (29th in the league!). It is Indiana that may very well have the best player in this series (Paul George) and don't be surprised if they pull off a Game 1 upset.  8* Indiana

9* Oakland (10:05 ET):  On the "luck" scale, these teams have been on opposite ends of the spectrum ever since the start of last season.  Kansas City, we know, rode its good fortune all the way to the franchise's first World Series Championship in 30 years. Oakland lost more one-run games than anybody in 2015 and finished w/ the worst record in the American League.  So far in 2016, it's been more of the same.  The Royals are 7-2 w/ four one-run victories while the A's are only 4-6 and were just swept here at home by the Angels. I expect these drastically different fortunes to turn around however, starting tonight, as I'm going to throw my support behind Oakland at home as they're due to start making some money.

The A's were badly mispriced on a game by game basis in 2015 and as a result dropped 29.5 units at the betting window, more than every other team w/ the exception of Cincinnati. But a lot of that was bad luck as they lost 23 times when leading after six innings and there were those 35 one-run defeats as well.  I remain steadfast that Billy Beane's team is going to show improvement this year. Though they were just swept the Angels, there is the benefit here of having had Thursday off, a luxury KC does not enjoy. Without question, the offense has struggled to this point.  But those numbers can only go up.  It's easy to focus on what happened in the last series, but remember the A's did sweep the Mariners, in Seattle, last weekend.

So far, Kansas City has faced the two worst offenses in the game (Mets, Twins) and an opponent whose bullpen seems to be in flux (Houston). Now, the Royals have something to do with that, but their own bullpen is due to regress this year and the starting rotation is unlikely to maintain its current numbers.  Edinson Volquez gets the baseball tonight and while he's coming off a high strikeout performance (10 in 5 2/3 IP), don't read too much into that as it came at the expense of the Twins.  Meanwhile, Oakland's Rich Hill also stuck out 10 batters in his last start, a 6-1 win in Seattle.  Hill also allowed just five hits in 6 IP as opposed to the eight Volquez allowed while getting one less hitter out. 9* Oakland

10* St. Louis (8:05 ET):  I had the Blues in Game 1 and will gladly throw my support behind them tonight in Game 2 as they are again being drastically undervalued at home because of past playoff failures and their opponent's history of success. But much of that is now largely irrelevant thanks to St. Louis finally having found a goaltender it can count on, that being Brian Elliot, who turned in a strong performance on Wednesday w/ a 35-save shutout in a game that went to overtime. Things were scoreless at the end of regulation, but I'm expecting more here from the Blues, who had just 18 shots on goal for the game and still won. With Elliot likely to be strong again and the offense even stronger, I see no reason why I shouldn't back the Blues again here.

In my Game 1 analysis, I wrote that Elliott was the key to this series for St. Louis. He, of course, led the league in save percentage (.930) during the regular season and when at even strength, that number jumps to .939. His goals against average was 2.07 and in division contests that save percentage jumps even further to .952. Now 12-1-1 w/ a 1.60 GAA his L16 games (three shutouts in last eight starts), I expect him to be just as sharp tonight as he was in Game 1. Meanwhile, I don't think you can say the same for Chicago's Corey Crawford, who figures to be under siege far more than he was Wednesday. Crawford is still working his way back from an injury that kept him out for nearly a month and he wasn't sharp in the regular season finale. His save percentage over his L4 starts is now all the way down to a terrible .830. 

Winning Game 1 in the manner that they did was huge for the Blues' confidence. Had they lost a 1-0 game in OT, the same old questions would have arisen and the pressure to win tonight would have been immense. Instead, they can now come out and play "their game," which if you believe HC Ken Hitchcock, will involve more hitting.  I said it in the Game 1 analysis as well, but Chicago simply does not seem to be as strong this year and though top defenseman Duncan Keith returns tonight, that will not cure all that ails them.  The Blues are the better team this year and have a 7-3 record when coming off a shutout. 10* St. Louis

10* Chi White Sox (7:10 ET):  The White Sox have shown themselves to be an improved team so far in 2016 (7-2 start) while the Rays are currently languishing in last in the AL East. I don't see that dichotomy changing after tonight as the road team will send Chris Sale to the hill for the opener of a three-game set.  Sale hasn't been overly dominant in either of his two starts so far, but both times saw him go seven innings while allowing 3 ER or fewer.  Here, facing a Rays lineup which is struggling big time, I anticipate another quality start from Chicago's ace. Tampa Bay may have taken five of the six meetings last year, but right now it appears as if the White Sox are the better team and I like them tonight.

Here at home, the Rays just dropped two of three to Cleveland and they were shutout yday to the tune of 6-0. They'd scored just one run the day previous and have yet to score more than five times in any game this season. In fact, they enter Friday as the third lowest scoring team in all of baseball (24 runs in nine games) and only Oakland has an OBP lower than Tampa's .269.  This all makes them likely candidates to be shut down by Sale, a lefty, as the Rays are hitting just .198 vs. southpaws so far this season. Of the 21 outs recorded by Sale in his last start, 13 were via groundout, which is a good sign. Rays' hitters also struck out 14 times yday.  The White Sox bullpen has been tremendous to this point, which is another nice luxury to have. 

The Rays will send Jake Odorizzi to the bump tonight and he did not fare so well in his previous start where he gave up four runs and nine hits in six innings and the team lost 5-3 to the Orioles.  The White Sox have been carried by their pitching thus far, but I think they can get to Odorizzi, who tends to give up his fair share of home runs. Of course, given how poorly so many of the Rays hitters are swinging the bats right now, it shouldn't take many runs for the White Sox to win this game.  Tampa Bay managed only five hits in each of the three games vs. Cleveland and has scored a total of one run in the last 18 innings.  They are just 11-17 the L2 seasons after being shut out in the previous game.  10* Chi White Sox

8* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET):  The Lightning took Game 1 of this series, 3-2, and those expecting the Red Wings to bounce back and salvage a split are going to be severely disappointed. Detroit somewhat backed into their 25th consecutive playoff appearance, losing B2B road games to end the regular season. I know that injury concerns have somewhat tempered the enthusiasm surrounding Tampa Bay, but they are the better team here and will be just fine in this series as long as the top line (Johnson-Kucherov-Killorn) performs the way it did in Game 1 (seven points!) and Ben Bishop is between the pipes. The Wings have now lost seven of their last nine visits to Tampa Bay and after tonight you can make it 8 out of 10.

There were plenty of shots on goal from both sides in Gm 1 w/ the Red Wings actually holding a slight advantage, 36 to 34. But again, as long as Bishop is in goal, the Lightning should be just fine. He has now won four straight starts at home vs. Detroit thanks to a 1.25 goals against average. His save percentage against the most common opponents (division foes) is .935 this season.  Bishop gives his team a significant edge in goal over counterpart Jimmy Howard for Detroit, whose save percentage on the road this year is just a hair above .900 (.903). Another game w/ plenty of shots certainly seems to favor Tampa Bay, who is also 26-13-3 on home ice while Detroit is now 19-17-6 on the road.

The Red Wings had the worst YTD goal differential among playoff teams during the regular season (-13) and other than Philadelphia are probably the weakest team in the entire 16-team field.  Playing a fourth consecutive road game, they really do seem "up against it" tonight as they are just 6-6 SU coming off three straight road games this season and almost all of those games took place at home. Detroit simply doesn't score much (23rd in goals per game) and that's trouble when facing a team that is 5th in goals allowed and 7th in penalty killing. Also, the Wings often struggle to protect leads as they were top six in most third period goals allowed during the regular season and their .710 win percentage when leading after two was second lowest in the league. 8* Tampa Bay

5* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET):  The price is high here, yet totally justified as the Rockies have never been a good road team and the Cubs are actually living up to their advanced billing.  Give credit to Colorado as they are off B2B wins where they totaled 21 runs. But those games were contested within the friendly confines of Coors Field. They did open the year by taking two of three in Arizona, but success has generally never found this team on the road (32-49 last season) where their offense dips dramatically. Their slash line in '15 was .277/.375/.652, which ranked 30th/29th/30th respectively and they scored the second fewest runs as well, just one more than Atlanta. That's trouble here against a Cubs team that is #1 in runs scored so far and has a monster +43 run differential (only one other team is better than +20).  This should be an easy one for the home team.

The Rockies got a strong outing from Jorge De La Rosa yday in an 11-6 win over the Giants. But it was really a nine-run fifth that put the game away for good. That kind of offensive outburst is certainly unlikely to be repeated (31 of the team's 58 runs scored this year have come in three games) and I don't think today's starter Chad Bettis is going to give his team the same kind of start De La Rosa did on Thursday.  Bettis was roughed up in his lone road start (in Arizona) as he allowed five runs and seven hits in 5 1/3 IP, plus he walked three batters. Making life more difficult for Bettis this afternoon is the fact that Rockies regular catcher, Nick Hundley, is listed as doubtful due to a concussion. Also, Colorado is just 7-21 their L28 games at Wrigley Field.

The Cubs offense is #1 in runs scored and on base percentage, so this is likely to be a productive weekend for them given that they are facing a pitching staff that has allowed the most home runs and hits in all of baseball.  In his first start, Kyle Hendricks beat Zack Greinke in Arizona by allowing only four hits over 6 2/3 innings. With the expected run support (Colorado has allowed 5+ runs in 7 of 9 games), Hendricks should have little difficulty shutting down a lineup that typically regresses on the road anyway. 5* Chi Cubs

9* San Jose (10:35 ET): These were two of the better road teams in the league during the regular season (San Jose was, in fact, the best), so it should come as no shock to find that the visitor won four of the five regular season matchups.  It was only the last one (in San Jose) where the home team was finally able to break through.  This is a really huge series for the Sharks as a franchise as it was just two years ago that they were up three games to none over the Kings in the first round and didn't end up advancing. I think the fact that Los Angeles got caught by Anaheim on the final day of the regular season and thus fell down into second place in the Pacific could come back to haunt them. The Sharks did finish the season w/ an ever so slightly better goal differential (+31 to +30). I'll call for the Game 1 "upset."

San Jose went an amazing 28-10-3 on the road during the regular season, including two wins here at the Staples Center.  Both wins saw them score five times despite going up against Jonathan Quick.  This was a team that ranked fourth in the league in scoring and when on the power play they have a big advantage as the Kings' penalty killing unit is ranked just 19th (SJ is #3 on the PP).  Also, a big difference between now and the last time these two met in the playoffs is that the Sharks tapped into the enemy and have former Kings goaltender Martin Jones between their pipes for this series. Jones turned in an excellent .925 save percentage on the road during the regular season w/ the team winning 22 of his 32 starts.

The Kings, as is always the case, were the best puck possession team during the regular season. But, San Jose ranked third in Fenwick themselves.  I really have to reiterate the poor finish LA had to the regular season as they blew a three-goal lead (at home!) to Winnipeg in the final game. One area of concern for the Kings is shooting percentage as only 8.5 percent of their shots find the back of the net.  Some of that is due to how many their take, but many of those shots aren't really quality looks. Another key factor to consider is that while San Jose led the league in turnovers, the Kings were last in takeaways.  9* San Jose

9* Texas (8:05 ET):  Baltimore finally dropped a game yday, becoming the last team to fall from the ranks of the unbeaten. It has been an impressive start for the O's thus far (AL best +16 run differential), but I'm simply not buying it.  This is a team that I projected to finish in last in the American League East and while it seems like skipper Buck Showalter always gets his teams to overachieve (this one certainly already has), eventually things will come back "down to Earth."  That process started yday in Boston where the Orioles left plenty of runners on base early and couldn't breakthrough against the Red Sox bullpen. Now they move down to Texas where they'll run into Cole Hamels in the opener of a four-game set. Already, Hamels has won twice in 2016 and he's allowed just three runs in 13 IP. I'm throwing my support behind him tonight.

Hamels was acquired at the trade deadline last season and to this point it's been a tremendous return on investment for the Rangers, who have won each of the southpaw's last 12 regular season starts. Hamels was a big reason the team won the AL West in 2015 and he's now 9-0 w/ a 2.96 ERA in his L11 regular season outings.  One of those came against Baltimore, here in Arlington, last August. There he allowed just one run on two hits and struck out 10 in eight innings of work.  This season has seen him give up just four hits in seven innings against Seattle and just four more in 6 IP vs. the Angels. Aside from a pair of solo home runs, he really hasn't made any mistakes. Most important of all is that the Rangers won both games.

  Texas dominated Baltimore last season, taking six of the seven matchups, including all three here in Arlington.  They did not face Chris Tillman (tonight's starter for the Orioles) in any of those games, which is too bad because he posted a 4.99 ERA in 2015.  Baltimore has won both of Tillman's starts this season, but that's a little misleading in the sense that one was cut short due to rain (just 2 IP on Opening Day) and then he only lasted five innings against Tampa Bay on Friday. Both starts also came at home and on the road, Tillman posted a pretty ugly 5.33 ERA (15 starts) last season. 9* Texas

8* Philadelphia Puck Line (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Flyers +1.5.  Clearly, this is expected to be the most "one-sided" first round matchup of the eight. But that works to our advantage as we're able to play the puck line at a more than reasonable price and you can take note that the Flyers actually split the regular season series w/ the Capitals 2-2 and one of the losses came by exactly one goal.  This Flyers team has essentially been playing "playoff hockey" for a month now as they didn't qualify a spot in the tournament until the second last day of the regular season. Washington, meanwhile, took its foot off the proverbial "gas pedal" and comes into the postseason having dropped four of five.  I think the Flyers can surprise in this one.

Philadelphia stood at just 15-15-7 overall following their first game of the new year, but since that time has gone an impressive 26-12-7 overall.  That included wins over the Penguins and Islanders in the last two games.  The key for them in this series will be Steve Mason as their goaltender turned in a .935 save percentage during the regular season when at even strength. Only Henrik Lundqvist was better in that category.  Mason posted 23 wins, one of them coming on March 30th vs. the Capitals as he stopped 29 of 30 shots. While there's some concern over the Philly offense, note that they did average a healthy 3.0 goals and 33 shot attempts over their final 23 games.

The pressure is certainly going to be on the Capitals as they are the consensus favorite to win the Stanley Cup. We've seen talented Washington teams in the past make early playoff exits.  This one happens to be as strong, if not stronger, than any before it, but note that when you take away special teams the numbers look a little more even between these two, particularly when the game is close. Note that the Caps have won only 11 of their last 21 games.  Predictably, they won a ton of one-goal games during the regular season (27 to be exact); in fact they accounted for nearly one-half of the team's overall victories. Look for the underdog to do no worse than a one-goal loss here.  8* Philadelphia (+1.5)

9* Minnesota (1:10 ET): The Twins were an obvious candidate to regress this year, but I don't think that even the most pessimistic observer thought they'd be this bad. Currently 0-8 and one of two winless teams in all of baseball (Braves), they've been outscored by 20 runs so far, which is bad, but not as bad as the Braves -27 differential. After being shut out yday, they try again for the first win of the season today behind Ervin Santana.  Keep in mind that no team in baseball had started a season 0-8 since the Astros did it in 2010 at the nadir of their rebuild. It's clearly not looking good for Minnesota right now, especially having to face Mat Latos, who turned in a very strong outing in his first trip to the mound in 2016. But they are due to win one and I'll take them this afternoon.

Santana has already started twice this season. Obviously, he has not won, but that doesn't mean he hasn't pitched well. His first outing (in Baltimore) was cut short by rain, so he lasted only two innings. He came back four days later against Kansas City and allowed only two runs over six innings, but unfortunately the bullpen lost the game in the bottom of the eighth. Still, Santana managed seven strikeouts and threw a first pitch strike to 16 of the 26 hitters he faced.  The odds of him pitching well today seem pretty good considering a 0.88 WHIP his L4 starts vs. the White Sox, which includes a 6-2 road win last season. I think it's fairly telling that he Twins are still slight ML favorites here.

As for the Twins' offense, well, obviously this lineup has been an unmitigated disaster. Thus, going up against Latos (who threw six shutout innings of one-hit ball last Thurs at Oakland) hardly sounds ideal. But Minnesota hitters have had their chances; they've just failed to convert. A woeful .082 batting average w/ RISP can only go up at this point, especially after going 0 for 6 in that role in yday's game. It's pretty incredible that the Twins have yet to score more than three runs in a game this season. That's got to change sooner rather than later and remember Latos is coming over from the National League and theoretically should have a tougher time w/ lineups that feature the DH.  Since the start of 2014, Chicago is a money-burning 47-72 in day games. 9* Minnesota

8* Golden State (10:35 ET): Predictably, the asking price is high on the Warriors as they go for their historic 73rd win of this regular season. They had plenty of trouble w/ the Grizzlies Saturday night, but that was in Memphis. The 100-99 victory saw them have to rally back from a 10-pt fourth quarter deficit, but the odds of them falling into any kind of similar hole in Oakland, on this night, is simply unlikely.  The Grizzlies, who will limp into the playoffs as a very banged-up team w/ almost no chance of advancing (regardless of who the opponent is), are talking a big game but the reality is they have no chance of preventing history from being made tonight.  Lay the points. 

I've written about this before, but it bears repeating. In terms of expected vs. actual wins (which is based on a team's point differential), the Grizzlies are the biggest overachiever in all of the league. They've been outscored - on average - by two points per game.  That doesn't sound like much, but over the course of a season that works out to a 162 point difference compared to their opponents. Based on their YTD point differential, you'd expect their record to be 34-47 (it's 42-39). They have suffered multiple blowout losses (eight by 20 or more points) and the latest came last night in LA as the Clippers drubbed them 110-84. Another came in their only other prior visit to Oracle Arena this season, all the way back in November. The final score there was 119-69, easily the Grizzlies worst loss of the year.

I'll come out and say it: Golden State surprised me Sunday night in San Antonio. They won 92-86, dealing the Spurs their first home loss all season. That's yet another big accomplishment in a season full of them for this team. The biggest would obviously be winning tonight and I'm actually not worried at all about the huge spread as this game is basically priced as if Memphis was at full strength, which they most certainly are not.  We already know that both Marc Gasol and Mike Conley are lost for the year and the team's best defender, Tony Allen, is likely to sit out again due to a hamstring issue. The Warriors missed 26 of 36 three-point attempts Saturday in Memphis and that percentage is likely to go way up tonight. 8* Golden State

10* St. Louis (9:35 ET):  It appears as if "ghosts of playoffs past" have clouded bettors' view of the Blues coming into this best of seven series as they are the only Game 1 host not getting the majority of the action. Of course, when you consider that the franchise has won just ONE playoff series since 2002 and who they are matched up with here, perhaps the sentiment becomes easier to understand. It was only two years ago that the Blackhawks eliminated the Blues (in six games, after losing the first two) in a first round playoff series and the team from the Windy City has of course captured Lord Stanley's Cup three different times since 2010. But the defending champs, despite a phenomenal individual season from Patrick Kane, just doesn't have the same "feel" as previous editions (just 11-10-5 L26 games) while St. Louis finally has a goaltender it can lean on in Brian Elliott.  I like the Blues to take the series opener.

Elliott's importance cannot be understated. He finished the regular season as the league leader in save percentage (.930) and w/ a 2.07 goals against average. At even strength, that save percentage jumps to .939. Shaky goaltending is what's really hurt the Blues before in the playoffs, but Elliott's regular season demonstrates he can erase the ugly past. St. Louis did take three of five regular season matchups from Chicago, including two of the three w/ Elliott in goal. They also took the most recent two w/ Elliot stopping 24 of 25 shots six nights ago.  Overall, the Blues ranked 4th in goals allowed this year. Since March 1st, they have a Corsi percentage of 54.4 as they closed the regular season on a 13-4 run.

Chicago's defensive depth will be tested here as Duncan Keith will be suspended for Game 1. What's really shocking to report is that the Blackhawks scored less than half of their goals this season at even strength.  While the league's second ranked power play certainly is to be respected, the Blues happen to rank #2 in penalty killing.  'Hawks' goalie Corey Crawford missed a lot of time at the end of the regular season and in fact got only one start under his belt since returning from injury (team lost 5-4 at Columbus in the reg season finale). Crawford has lost his last four starts while posting a pretty woeful .840 save percentage. The Blackhawks actually posted a losing record against .500 or better teams this year while the Blues won 24 of 39.  10* St. Louis

10* Chicago (8:05 ET):  Many times, a road team playing in the second game of a back to back offers some value, but I can't see 10-71 Philadelphia offering up much resistance tonight in the final game of the year.  Last night saw the Sixers get crushed, 122-98 (were +12) in Toronto and there's really no reason why it shouldn't be a similar story tonight in the Windy City. Granted, the Bulls aren't going to the playoffs but they can draw motivation from this being an excellent opportunity to give their fans a nice ending to what has been otherwise a very disappointing (and injury-filled) campaign.  The oddsmakers are expecting a blowout here and so am I.  Lay the points.

This is the fourth meeting of the season between these two teams. Chicago has won the previous three, which isn't surprising, nor is the fact that two have been blowouts. All the way back in November, as 10.5-pt chalk, they won 111-88 in Philadelphia. In December, they won 115-96 as 13.5-pt home favorites. It was a closer game (went to overtime) in January (at Philly), but the fact the Bulls were 8.5-pt favorites in that 115-111 win actually demonstrates that there's some value here. Adjusting for home court advantage, you'd expect Chicago to be about a 14.5-pt fave in this spot.  Again, they were -13.5 the last time they hosted the Sixers - and covered w/ room to spare.  In that January meeting where the Bulls failed to cover, Philly made 12 three-pointers and that isn't likely to happen again here.

The numbers are as ugly as you'd expect from the Sixers this season and if you take out the four games in which they were favored (all at home, obviously), they become even uglier. The team has been outscored by a double digit margin in virtually all situations this year, so don't be afraid of this number.  They are 0-6 in the second of B2B road games, losing by an average margin of 14.8 points.   Now, you might question what will inspire Chicago to win big here. In addition to playing in front of the home crowd, they have a chance to finish the season w/ a winning record.  Fred Hoiberg's team shot 57.1 percent and scored 121 pts in a win at New Orleans on Monday and while it will be tough to match either number here, they won't have to against what is the league's worst offensive club. 10* Chicago

10* Under Braves/Nationals (7:05 ET):  As was expected, things are not going well for the Braves, who are 0-7 and have a MLB-worst -24 run differential. It's highly unlikely that things turn around tonight in the Nation's capital as they face Stephen Strasburg and a Washington team that's already beaten them four times in 2016.  The money line clearly reflects the Braves' long-shot odds here, but I'm actually not interested in the side here especially w/ the high pricetag on the Nats.  However, given the likelihood that we won't have to play the bottom of the ninth, the Under becomes attractive as seven is a key number and we're getting a half-run cushion.  Take the Under here.

Last night was a 2-1 game and neither starter allowed a run through six innings.  In the four games the teams have played against one another, only once (Washington on Monday) has either side managed more than four runs.  Atlanta has scored only nine runs total in the four games and comes in batting just .203 for the year. That ranks 29th in all of MLB right now as does the team's .291 slugging percentage and .592 OPS.  They figure to do little here against Strasburg, who limited them to only six singles exactly one week ago. Over his L4 starts against the Braves, Strasburg has allowed just one run in 24 innings pitched.  While his 2015 campaign was considered to be somewhat of a disappointment, remember that Strasburg did post a 1.90 ERA over his final 10 starts.

The Washington offense hasn't exactly been hitting the cover off the baseball either as outside of the opener in this series, they have not scored more than four runs in any game.  They were blanked last night until Bryce Harper's two-run double in the eighth.  They'll face Matt Wisler tonight.  While being on the wrong end of a 7-4 loss doesn't seem great, Wisler actually didn't pitch that poorly in his first start of 2016. He allowed just four runs in 6 2/3 IP against St. Louis and had six strikeouts. He threw 61 strikes compared to just 30 balls and of the 28 hitters he faced, 18 saw a first-pitch strike.  Wisler faced the Nats in his second to last start of 2015 and pitched well, allowing only one run in 7 IP.  10* Under Braves/Nationals

8* Seattle (3:40 ET):  The Mariners opened up the season by taking two of three in Arlington, but since then it's been all downhill and the most disconcerting part of it is that all five games during their current losing skid have taken place here at home. Safeco Field wasn't all too kind to the M's last year either (went 35-46), but this kind of ineptitude at home can't continue going on, at least as far as I'm concerned. Facing the prospect of being swept by the Rangers, Seattle sends Taijuan Walker out to the bump this afternoon and I see him being instrumental in avoiding the undesirable fate of losing all three games in this series.  Note that off a shutout loss, the Mariners are 18-10 the previous two seasons.

Walker started the home opener for Seattle and pitched well. He allowed just two runs in six innings (4-0 KW) in front of what was the largest regular season crowd in Safeco Field history. Unfortunately, reliever Steve Cishek gave up a solo home run in the top of the ninth to lose the game (3-2 to Oakland).  The bullpen, which was expected to improve this year, really hasn't as of yet but I say give them time.  As for Walker, I do like his chances here against a Rangers lineup that has struck out 22 times in the last two games. But the bottom line here "progression to the mean" as Seattle is off to its worst start at home in franchise history. I do not see them falling to 0-6 at home, especially at the expense of an opponent I expect to regress in 2016. 

Although they won the American League West, Texas only outscored opponents by 12 runs last season, so they were something of a fluke. Playing a large role in that "flukish" season was a league-leading 45-36 road record, which I don't see being repeated here in '16.  The club is dealing with some notable injuries right now, one to Shin-Soo Choo (15-day DL), who was their key hitter down the stretch last season, and another to catcher Robinson Chirinos (60-day DL).  Both are big losses.  While Seattle's offense has given the Rangers little trouble in this series, I still have my doubts about today's starter AJ Griffin, who did not appear in the big leagues at all last year due to undergoing Tommy John surgery. His first start went okay, but he had only one strikeout in six innings.  Look for Walker to pitch well here and the offense to show up for the first time in the series. 8* Seattle

8* San Antonio (8:05 ET):  Prior to last week, the Spurs had gone all season w/o dropping B2B games, a remarkable achievement (one that Golden State has actually pulled off). They also hadn't lost at home until Sunday's 92-86 setback at the hands of the Warriors. There's really nothing to play for tonight vs. Oklahoma City as both teams are locked into a seed (Spurs 2nd, Thunder 3rd) in the top-heavy West, but I still believe the team sporting the best point differential and efficiency rating in the league is a solid value at home tonight as they look to end a season-worst slide (three in row straight up, six-game ATS losing streak). It's pretty likely that OKC will rest both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook (this is their reg season finale) and w/o those two, the Thunder really don't have much to offer. Lay the points.

Both Durant and Westbrook played last night as the team rolled to an easy (as expected) 112-79 win over the lousy Lakers. Durant has sat out the last two times the Thunder have been in the second game of a back to back while Westbrook joined him in the last one, a 120-115 loss in Portland. Overall, OKC has dropped five of its last six when unrested and last night's defensive performance actually does not bode well for them here as they are 0-4 ATS after allowing 85 pts or less the previous game.  As an underdog, they are 1-9 SU and 3-6 ATS this year. By one-half point (were +8.5), they covered here in San Antonio last month, but that came with both superstars in the lineup.  Considering neither is likely to play here, why have the oddsmakers made no real adjustment. 

Of course, it could be because the Spurs may not play everyone either.  HC Greg Popovich sat arguably his five best players on March 26th at Oklahoma City and the result there was a 111-92 loss. I want to be clear that this play stands regardless of what Popovich or Billy Donovan decides to do as the Spurs are still looking to tie the single season record for most home wins in a regular season (41) and they have outscored visiting teams here by 14.2 points per game. Winning tonight and resting tomorrow is probably Popovich's goal and the Spurs should do that rather easily here. 8* San Antonio

10* Miami (7:35 ET): Thanks to Charlotte beating Boston last night, the Heat find themselves in the driver's seat for having home court advantage in a first round playoff series. They are on the road for the final two games, here in Detroit and then tomorrow in Boston, but if they win both then they will finish no worse than fourth in the Eastern Conference.  Of course, that's "easier said than done" especially considering the Pistons happen to own the best home ATS record in the league (24-14) after a blowout win over Washington all the way back on Friday. But don't be surprised if the home team comes out flat and my power rankings disagree with the notion of Detroit even being favored in this matchup. 

I'm happy for the Pistons, and especially HC Stan Van Gundy (who has gotten a "raw deal" at almost every previous stop), that they'll be back in the playoffs this year following a six-year absence. But this team often struggles to shoot the basketball (29th in "true shooting percentage") and that could really come back to bite them against a team like the Heat.  It certainly did exactly one week ago, in Miami, as SVG's team made only 40% of its field goal attempts, including 5 of 21 from three-point range, in a 107-89 loss. Given the final score there, I think the oddsmakers have made a mistake by not making any real adjustments in the line here, save for the obvious one that comes w/ the change in home court advantage. It's not that often that the Heat are an underdog, so tonight is a good time to take advantage.

The Pistons have averaged 110 PPG over their last two contests, but I don't see them getting anywhere near that here as the Heat are allowing just 98.5 points per game and rank 7th in defensive efficiency.  In fact, Miami is the more efficient team on both ends of the court. Scoring has been way up for them ever since acquiring Joe Johnson as they've topped 100 pts in 19 of their last 21 games.  The only two times they failed to reach triple digits came in the second game of a back to back, at San Antonio and at Portland.  It's interesting to note how the line is dropping here even though Detroit is just a short home favorite. 10* Miami

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET):  Because they were embarrassed last night on national television (lost 10-3) and tonight are going up against Jose Fernandez, I don't imagine we'll be seeing a rush of bettors flocking to the window to take the Mets tonight.  But, even though they've now dropped three in a row (all as favorites), I believe it would be a big mistake in writing this team off Tuesday. They counter Fernandez w/ Noah Syndergaard, who was fantastic in his 2016 debut as he delivered six shutout innings of three-hit ball w/ nine strikeouts. What wasn't fantastic was Fernandez's first start as he allowed five runs (did have 13 K's) and that's concerning because it came at home where he'd previously never lost. I'm on the Mets here.

Fernandez on the road has been an entirely different story than the pitcher we've seen at Marlins Park the past few seasons.  While his strikeout rate remains impressive (10.68 per nine innings), he is just 5-9 w/ a 3.78 ERA in 21 career starts away from home. Miami was a terrible road team overall in 2015, going just 30-51. Only two teams were worse than that and I probably shouldn't have to tell you which two (hint: same division).  Meanwhile, the Mets were a great home team last year (49-32) and though their offense is struggling right now, I think they'll be able to do enough against Fernandez to get Syndergaard the win. 

Like Fernandez, Syndergaard has an impressive home resume.  He is 9-2 w/ a 2.54 ERA in 14 career starts at Citi Field, including LY's playoffs.  His dominant first start came at Kauffman Stadium against the defending World Series champs, so clearly it looks as if this is a young pitcher that is only getting better.  It's quite rare to see the Mets allow 10+ runs in a game like they did yday (Steven Matz struggled badly) as it happened only seven times total the previous two seasons. Also, the club is 29-9 as a home favorite in the -125 to -150 price range.  This will be the first time that the Marlins hitters have faced Syndergaard, which is always a disadvantage, and I expect him to reverse the trend of subpar outings from this heavily hyped Mets staff.  8* NY Mets

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET):   I feel for Phillies' starter Aaron Nola, who took the loss yday despite striking out nine across seven innings. It was his second straight strong outing, yet he has nothing to show for it. San Diego has now won three of four after that embarrassing first series against the Dodgers (outscored 25-0!).  But in a battle of two of the bottom six in the NL, I just can't see the Padres making it B2B road wins here in the City of Brotherly Love.  I say that knowing full well that Charlie Morton (tonight's Philly starter) did not pitch well his first time out after a poor finish to 2015.  But the Phils did outhit the Padres yday afternoon, so don't be surprised if Morton leans on his offense as SD starter Robbie Erlin hardly brings in a decorated resume himself.

After not scoring a single run in the first 30 innings this season, the Padres exploded for 29 runs over their next two games, but keep in mind those took place at Coors Field.  They've since scored just seven runs the L2 games. It's important to remember that this was not a good offense last year (23rd in runs scored) and on the road they ranked 27th/26th/26th in OBP/slugging/OPS respectively. Two reviews that went their way were instrumental in San Diego winning yday. One saw the old "infield fly rule" come into effect and that negated the Phillies scoring what would have been the game-tying run. Then, in the seventh, a challenge on a throw out at third base led to SD scoring the GW run. I'm calling for Morton to bounce back here as he's 4-1 all-time vs. the Padres w/ a 2.70 ERA.

As for San Diego starter Erlin, he actually worked out of the bullpen the first time we saw him in 2016. While he delivered 3 2/3 scoreless innings against the Rockies, his career numbers indicate that he won't be able keep that up (4.48 ERA in 28 appearances). One thing I'm looking at here is that these two clubs are among the perceived "bottom six" in the National League.  When these teams are matched up, I think that - typically - there's going to be some value on the home side.  The Phils were actually respectable at home in 2015 (37-44, +3.0 units) and this is a game (and series) that they should win. 8* Philadelphia

8* Toronto (7:07 ET):  Two AL East rivals start a three-game set Tuesday and I think it's advantage Blue Jays here at Rogers Centre.  I took the defending division champs on Sunday as they shut out the Red Sox behind Marcus Stroman & it's only a matter of time before this offense (only .287 OBP so far) gets going.  The Yankees, who have had two days off (game PPD Sunday), I also happened to cash their last time out.  That was Saturday afternoon's 8-4 win (as a slight underdog) in Detroit.  Their offense has been mostly clicking to this point, but the starting rotation has not (7.23 ERA L4 games) and while Masahiro Tanaka has actually performed well in the past vs. the Blue Jays, I don't think he will here.

Toronto will send Aaron Sanchez to the bump on Tuesday.  He pitched well in his first start, very well in fact, giving up just one run and five hits over 7 IP.  He struck out eight and didn't walk any hitters, but was betrayed by the bullpen in what ended up being a 3-2 loss to Tampa Bay.  That was a career high in K's for Sanchez, but I think he could come close to match that number here as the Yankees lineup has struck out at least six times in every game so far. Sanchez induced 16 swinging strikes against the Rays, a very impressive number, and recorded eight outs via the ground ball as opposed to just four via a fly ball.  In the past, lefties have given Sanchez some trouble and the Yanks will have a few in their lineup. But this is now a bigger Sanchez that will be more adept at performing in the starter's role and his walk rate was very good in the Spring.

It bears repeating just how prolific the Toronto offense was last season.  They scored 127 more runs than the second best offense. They scored more runs in their home park than did Colorado, who benefits from the most hitter-friendly conditions in the sport. It's only a matter of time before this lineup gets going and while Tanaka pitched relatively well in his first start (only four strikeouts though), the Blue Jays went 13-6 head to head w/ the Pinstripes last year and are a really good value here on the money line at home. 8* Toronto

8* Houston (8:10 ET): Kansas City is a team that apparently believes "regression be damned" as the World Series Champs are again flexing their muscles en route to a 4-1 start. But so far all the damage has been done at home and the last three games were against winless Minnesota.  On the road for the first time all season, they are the visitors in Houston's home opener and who could forget the final game at Minute Maid Park last season when the Astros bullpen imploded in spectacular fashion, allowing KC to tie the series and eventually win a fifth game?  Needless to say, revenge will be squarely on the minds of the Astros players here and I look for them to get going following a disappointing 2-4 start to 2016.

There is one thing I can absolutely guarantee here and that is Astros starter Colin McHugh will be better than he was in his first start of 2016.  His season debut came last Wednesday at Yankee Stadium and it was an unmitigated disaster as he allowed six runs while only managing to get one hitter out.  There were only three hits allowed, but two walks as well. McHugh did pitch well against the Royals in LY's LDS though, allowing only five runs and nine hits in two starts. We obviously need the bullpen to regain its 2015 form as Astros relievers have struggled big time so far. But it's a small sample size and I do see the group improving as we move forward. By the way, Houston has won its home opener each of the last three seasons.

Meanwhile, the magic continues for the Royals, who twice rallied to beat the Twins over the weekend. One of those times came yday as they scored two runs in the bottom of the ninth to tie the game up and then won the game on a wild pitch in the 10th.  They were outhit Sunday, 11 to 7.  Unlike the Astros, there's been no bullpen issues here as what was one of the strongest relief units in all of MLB last year has continued the pace w/ a 2.55 ERA and they've given up just two runs in the last four games. But don't be surprised if the 'pen (and the team) starts to regress as 50 come from behind wins since the start of last season indicates a lot of luck has gone their way. Also, I have my doubts about tonight's starter Chris Young, who has a 4.67 career ERA vs. the Astros. The Royals' only loss this year was w/ Young on the mound.  8* Houston

10* Houston (8:05 ET):  I was happy to see the Rockets pull away late against the Lakers as I decided to lay a big number with them Sunday afternoon and it ended up being a much needed 130-110 victory. I figured they'd be able to score at will against the worst defense in the league and this is another spot where that should be the case. It can't be understated how much Houston needs this game as they still trail 8th place Utah (who also won Sunday) by one game w/ two to play. With only a visit from Sacramento to come after this, the Rockets will be favored to win out and that's something they probably have to do. So lay the points here.  (Utah does host Dallas tonight and Houston has the tiebreaker against both teams). 

Minnesota, it should be pointed out, has won its last three games (all on the road) and two of those were against Golden State and Portland. But, nevertheless, bad teams off a SU win tend to be strictly fade material this time of year. The last (and only) time we saw the T'wolves on a three-game win streak this season was back in November and they went on to lose the next time out. Now they did cover, but that's because they were taking a big number on the road against the Clippers. Here it's a small number at home and it should be pointed out that Minny has gone only 13-25-1 ATS on its own court this season, which is the worst home ATS record in the league by a wide margin (only team that's covered less than 40% of its home games this year). Also, getting back to the win streak, over the L3 seasons we have not seen Minnesota produce a single four-game win streak. They are 0-6 SU when off three consecutive victories. 

Houston has dominated Minnesota head to head, taking 10 of the past 11 matchups including six straight.  As was the case yday, the Rockets should be able to score plenty of points here (they've scored at least 107 pts in each of the 11 prior meetings) as the T'wolves rank 27th in terms of defensive efficiency by giving up 1.07 points per 100 possessions.  In yday's analysis, I talked about how preposterous it was that the Rockets dropped that game to the Suns on Friday as they shot 56.8% from the floor. I expect James Harden (scored 40 on Sunday) to have another big game and for the Rockets to stay alive in the playoff hunt. 10* Houston

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET):  The Mets just dropped B2B games (to Philadelphia!) here at home, but I like their chances of bouncing back tonight in this nationally televised affair vs. Miami. This deep rotation of theirs sends Steven Matz to the bump for the first time in 2016. Considering what we saw from Matz at the tail end of last season and who he's going up against tonight (Jarred Cosart), this looks like a very easy game for the defending NL Champs.  The Marlins are off to a bit of a tough start so far, dropping three of four games and tonight just doesn't seem like the ideal situation for them to turn things around. The last two seasons have seen the Mets go 29-9 as a home favorite in the -125 to -150 price range.

Matz ended the 2015 regular season by going undefeated over his final six starts and posting a 2.27 ERA. His strikeout to walk ratio for the season was 47-14 and his control seemed to get better as the season wore on as did his home run rate.  In his last start of the Spring, Matz looked as strong as ever, tossing five no-hit innings against the Cubs.  He did face the Marlins once last year and allowed just two runs and four hits over 5 1/3 innings. While his pitch/innings count likely gets monitored here, Matz should have no problems dominating a Marlins lineup that really struggled against lefties last year (26th in runs scored). Matz will be the first southpaw starter the Fish have seen thus far in 2016.

New York's lineup has its issues right now as a collective .180 batting average is the lowest in all of baseball.  But if there's a remedy for that, it's facing Jarred Cosart, who posted a 4.52 ERA last season while dealing w/ a bout of vertigo. While now past those issues, that can't change the fact that Cosart was a disaster on the road in 2015 as his ERA was 7.64 (as opposed to 1.72 at home).  It was pretty shocking to see the Mets' lineup limited to only two runs the last two days by Phillies pitching, but the team has still actually scored more than they've allowed across the five games played.  The Mets were an outstanding home team last season (53-35 including playoffs) and took 11 of 19 games overall from the Marlins.  I'll reiterate that this looks like a great bounce back spot. 8* NY Mets

10* Under Bucks/Magic (7:05 ET):  These teams have combined to go Over the total in all three prior meetings this season, plus Orlando comes in having gone Over in each of its last five games. But that's all conspired to create a situation where we now have some value on the Under as tonight's number promises to be the highest of any of the four O/U lines this season.  Furthermore, both teams are playing the second game of a back to back & I just don't see the energy being there from two teams that aren't going to the playoffs. Take the Under. 

Many don't know this, but the Magic can finish w/ the best ATS record in the league.  They failed to deliver as nine-point underdogs yday in Miami (lost 118-96), but even w/ the Warriors cashing at the betting window against the Spurs, it's Orlando that has a half-game lead in the ATS standings.  Now at home they've gone 23-16 ATS, but what's interesting about that is when they are here w/o rest and played on the road the previous night, things typically go very well.  In fact, they are giving up just 94.3 points per game in that situation!  So, don't look for Milwaukee to come in and shoot 55.8% from the floor like Miami did yday. Over the L5 games, Orlando is scoring roughly six points per game above their season average while giving up about eight points per game more than they allow for the year. Those numbers should start to come down. 

Speaking of going down, Milwaukee's defense has been hideous over the last five games as opponents have averaged 110.6 PPG against them. That can be explained by four of those teams (one was Orlando) all shooting 52.7% or better from the floor. But last night, we saw the Bucks hold the Sixers to 40.6% shooting. Unfortunately for Under players, the game still went Over because of overtime. As is the case w/ Orlando, Milwaukee's defensive numbers should start to progress back to the mean as they "only" allow 103.3 PPG this year. They probably won't have to deal w/ either Aaron Gordon or Victor Oladipo tonight as both Orlando players are still dealing w/ concussions. Offensively, it is unlikely that the Bucks get another 36 points from Kris Middleton tonight, so they too should suffer a decline in scoring as they average just 97.2 PPG on the road for the season. 10* Under Bucks/Magic

6* Boston (2:05 ET): Baltimore (5-0) remains MLB's lone remaining unbeaten following yday's 5-3 win over Tampa Bay. Going back to the end of last season, the O's have actually won nine straight games, but it should be pointed out that all nine took place within the friendly confines of Camden Yards. While I was unsuccessful playing against Buck Showalter's club on Sunday, I did get a nice early win at the expense of the Red Sox, who were shut out by Toronto's Marcus Stroman (2-0 final). However, I'll come back and take them this afternoon (this is the home opener) as they have David Price on the hill and that's a big advantage. Also, before getting shut out on Sunday, Boston's bats had produced at least six runs and 11 hits in every game this season. I look for them to bounce back in the 2016 opener at Fenway.

Keep in mind all that scoring by the Red Sox took place on the road and that in 2015 this was the third highest scoring home team in all of baseball w/ 433 runs. Only Toronto (best overall offense in baseball) & Colorado (playing in the #1 hitters park) scored more.  Boston figures to score plenty this afternoon off Orioles' starter Yovani Gallardo, who did allow only one run on two hits in his first start of the year, but also got away w/ walking three batters. Gallardo averaged less than six innings per start last year (w/ Texas) while posting a career-low KW rate and fastball velocity.  It took him 89 pitches to get through five innings on Wednesday, so it's fair to say he's become an inefficient pitcher at this point of his career. That places a huge burden on the Baltimore bullpen, which had to work 4+ innings yday. This is going to be a problem for the O's for much of this year as the starting rotation simply isn't very good. 

The Red Sox rotation has its issues as well, but not so much at the front end any more due to acquiring David Price, who will be working on six days rest here. That much time off between starts has been huge for Price in the past as he is 13-5 w/ a 3.19 ERA in 25 starts w/ at least six days off.  He's also 6-1 w/ a 1.95 ERA in his career when pitching here at Fenway and the Orioles are an opponent that he's historically dominated (8-4, 2.65 ERA in 19 starts). Also, in their final visit of 2015, the Orioles were shutout three straight times here at Fenway (outscored 17-0!). I look for the Red Sox to win the home opener and deal their division rival its first loss of 2016! 6* Boston

8* Anaheim (7:35 ET):  Expect the money to be flowing in on the Ducks here and for good reason as they are the only team w/ something to play for, that being a Pacific Division Title.  Quite frankly, they are fortunate to be in this position as last night saw the Kings blow a three-goal lead in spectacular fashion and lose at home to Winnipeg in a shootout. That result, coupled w/ Anaheim beating Colorado 5-3 yday, leaves the Ducks one point back of the Kings for first place.  They do need to win this game as a tiebreak would go to Los Angeles, who has more regulation + OT wins this year.  Thankfully for the Ducks, Washington is likely to be a willing "dance partner" as they have home ice all wrapped up and nothing to play for here.

Back in December, I'm not sure anyone thought Anaheim would be in this position. They were last in the league in goals per game and the regression that everyone saw coming from what had to be considered a "lucky" campaign last year (had an extraordinary record in one-goal games) seemed to be taking hold.  But credit all other facets of the game as the Ducks are likely to end the regular season 1st in goals allowed, 1st on the power play and 1st in penalty killing!  Even though they finished last year w/ more points, I believe the Ducks are a better team entering this year's Stanley Cup Playoffs.  Thinking that this game might not matter, they called up several players from their AHL affiliate yday, but now given a golden opportunity, I expect most, if not all, of the top players to be on the ice Sunday night.

I can't say that for Washington however as the Caps have no incentive to win here whatsoever.  Braden Holtby, who has already tied the single season record for wins, is likely to sit out.  The Caps had actually dropped three in a row before yday's 5-1 win in St. Louis and I think that peformance will be good enough for HC Barry Trotz to elect to rest his key players, Alex Ovechkin among them.  It's been an incredible season thus far for Washington and there is simply no reason to risk anything here heading into the playoffs. 8* Anaheim

8* San Antonio (7:05 ET):  Yes, this means I'm calling for Golden State not to break the 1995-96 Bulls' single season record of 72 wins, something which only a few weeks ago looked to be a mere formality. But home losses to both the Celtics and T'wolves changed that and now the defending NBA Champs are back to a place where one of their other seven losses occurred, that being San Antonio.  Lost in the Warriors' pursuit of history is that the Spurs have basically been just as impressive, if not moreso.  It is San Antonio, not Golden State, that has the league's best scoring margin at +11.0 per game and not only are the Spurs off B2B losses for the 1st time all season, but they are at home where they're unbeaten (39-0 SU). The Warriors played last night and had to rally back from a 10-pt fourth quarter deficit to defeat injury-riddled Memphis, 100-99 (were -13).  This is a bad spot for them. Lay the points.

When I played the Spurs at home against the Warriors back on March 19th, I noted that the typically favorite-loving public actually has a natural inclination to take the points when two top teams are facing off and that there's usually some pretty good value on the chalk in such situations. Sure enough, after Golden State beat San Antonio 112-101 at home on Thursday (I won w/ the Over), the favorite is now a perfect 3-0 ATS in Warriors-Spurs matchups this year w/ every game decided by at least eight points.   Again, San Antonio has not lost a single home game all season. Before resting starters Friday vs. Denver, they were 12-0 SU (10-2 ATS) off a loss and their average margin of victory in the situation remains 17.7 points per game as they allow fewer than 90 PPG.

The Warriors are an impressive 8-2 SU/7-3 ATS when playing in the second of back to back road games this year, but clearly their pursuit of history has taken its toll and as recently as yesterday there were talks about forsaking the record in favor of saving themselves for what will be a challenging postseason (after the 1st round). Steph Curry, in particular, is showing signs of "wear and tear" as last night saw him go a woeful 3 of 14 from three-point range and the last game here in San Antonio he was 1 of 12. This game should give us the Spurs at their best while I can't say the same for the Warriors. That will be enough for the home team to win by a margin greater than what the oddsmakers are calling for here. 8* San Antonio

9* Over Flyers/Islanders (7:05 ET):  It was thought that this game would be for the Flyers season, but with BOTH Detroit and Boston improbably losing on Saturday, they are now in the playoffs and as the second Wild Card will play top seeded Washington in the first round. It's actually the Islanders that have something to play for as a win here would move them up into third place in the Metro.  But I'm not sure that's something they should want as finishing fourth means the play Florida (surprise winner of the Atlantic) in the 1st round instead of Pittsburgh (arguably the hottest team in the sport right now) if they were to finish third. With injury concerns all over the roster, I don't think the #1 priority here is necessarily winning for the Isles and thus I believe we'll see something resembling yday's game vs. Buffalo, which ended up being a 4-3 loss in overtime.  Take the Over.

Though they'd lost three in a row prior to beating Pittsburgh (who rested Sidney Crosby and Kris Letang) yday, the Flyers have stunned the hockey world by going 14-5-3 over their L22 games en route to a playoff berth.  They still have a negative goal differential, however, and will be huge underdogs against the Caps in Round 1.  Before Saturday, they'd allowed 13 goals across the three consecutive losses and tonight's most likely starting netminder (Steve Mason) has a poor .889 save percentage his last four starts.  That's even after facing only 19 shots yday.  The team still allows the seventh most shots per game in the league (30.9 per game) and the Over is 14-8 in their road games when the total is 5.0.

The Islanders' last six games have all seen at least five total goals scored and four of those have seen seven goals scored. A lot of that scoring has come from them as they've tallied 16 goals over the last four games.   But they've also given up their fair share as yday saw the Sabres score four times (one in OT) and the last three times they've faced Philadelphia, they've given up at least three goals.  They too have an issue w/ the number of shot attempts given up as it's reached an average of 32.4 over the L5 games.  9* Over Flyers/Islanders

8* Houston (3:30 ET):  The Rockets suffered an embarrassing defeat on Thursday, dumping a game to the sorry Suns, 124-115 as 12-point chalk.  That loss left them 1.5 games back of eighth place Utah w/ three to play. But a major reprieve came Friday night in the form of the Jazz losing (as 12.5-pt favorites) at home to the Clippers, again opening the door for Houston to get into the postseason. These final three games certainly look easy as James Harden and company will take on the Lakers, Minnesota and Sacramento w/ only the game against the T'wolves taking place on the road.  Losing to a team like Phoenix is concerning as is the Rockets' lack of defense, but I'll still call for them to bounce back in a major way Sunday afternoon against the team that I feel is the worst in all of the NBA.

These teams have previously met three times this season. All three times have resulted in blowout wins for the Rockets as the respective margins of victory have been: 29, 20 and 17.  Two of those games were played in Los Angeles.  Normally, given the situation ("must win" for the Rockets), you might think they'd be overvalued, but they're actually not as the last time they visited LA (January 17th) they were 10-pt favorites and covered easily, doing so despite missing 15 of 21 three-point attempts. It should be pointed out that against Phoenix, the Rockets led by as many as 13 in the second half and shot 56.1 percent for the game. How they could then lose is pretty unfathomable, although clearly you could point to the fact they gave up 36 second chance points, the most in any NBA game in six seasons. 

Defensively, the Rockets are bad, but thankfully the Lakers are even worse. Byron Scott's team (by the way, what an absolutely horrid coaching job Scott has done this year) is dead last in the league in defensive efficiency and allows 110.3 points per game on the road. That was a major reason I played them Over the total in their last game at New Orleans (which was a winning call) as they gave up exactly 110 to a Pelicans team that is w/o its top five scorers. Offensively, the Lakers have scored only 93 pts per 100 possessions against the Rockets this year and that includes Kobe Bryant actually shooting 54.1% from the floor. The league's worst jump shooter by a wide margin, Bryant isn't likely to shoot that ball that well here and that spells doom for a Lakers team that has been dominated on the glass in the three games vs. Houston. This should - and will - be an absolute blowout.  8* Houston

10* Tampa Bay (1:35 ET):  In the interest of full disclosure, I was set to take the Rays over the Orioles yday before Mother Nature intervened. But a little bit of snow isn't enough top deter my belief that Baltimore's fast start is nothing more than a mirage as they were simply fortunate to host Minnesota to open the year, then Chris Archer uncharacteristically imploded in the opener of this series.  Again, skipper Buck Showalter always seems to get his club to overachieve, but you'd have to go back to 1970 (the Orioles' "heyday") to find the last time this franchise started a season 5-0. Coming into this season, I don't think that anyone (certainly myself included) would have thought this would be the last unbeaten team in MLB.

Through four games, Baltimore has allowed only seven runs. This has to be labeled as a major surprise as starting pitching looked to be an obvious weakness w/ the departure of last year's ace Wei-Yin Chen.  Vance Worley gets the nod today. The fifth starter in the rotation, Worley barely made the team and his numbers the last few seasons simply have not been very good. He's spent a significant amount of time in the minors, including six weeks in Triple-A last year.  When he started for the Pirates, he was only 4-6 w/ a 4.02 ERA. Given what what saw from Worley in his last American League stint (2013 w/ Minnesota) where he posted a career-worst 7.21 ERA, I expect him to struggle today and really all year.

The Rays counter w/ Jake Odorizzi, who certainly pitched well enough to get the win Tuesday (his team did) vs. Toronto as he allowed just two runs (one unearned) on four hits over 5 2/3 IP.  The most impressive part of the outing was him striking out 10 of the 21 batters he faced (17 times a hitter swung and missed against him). Baltimore's offense has hit its fair share of home runs so far and giving up the long ball has been a problem in the past for Odorizzi. But, take away the home runs and the O's really haven't done a ton of scoring so far this year. The same could be said for Tampa Bay's offense, but they are facing the much weaker starter here and thus it is their lineup that is far more likely to produce. 10* Tampa Bay

9* Toronto (1:07 ET): After a 2-0 start to the year, the defending AL East Champion Blue Jays have now dropped four in a row and face the prospect of being swept at Rogers Centre by the division rival Red Sox. But I don't see that happening. Toronto's offense got all the headlines last season, but so far in 2016 it has been the Boston bats that have produced the most runs per game (7.0!). The Sox have scored at least six runs and finished w/ 10 hits in every game so far, including 8 and 11 in yday's win. They've scored eight times in both wins here in Toronto, yet I'll look for them to get "cooled off" by Jays starter Marco Estrada, who is making his season debut here.  Lower back soreness kept him out to this point, but by all accounts he's fine and ready to deliver.

Only the Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel posted a lower WHIP among American League starters than did Estrada (1.04) last season. With the departure of David Price (to Boston), Estrada in a sense becomes the de facto ace of this staff. Only three pitchers last season, all of them in the National League (and their names were "Kershaw," "Greinke" and "Arrieta") held opposing hitters to a lower batting average than Estrada's .203 and remember that aforementioned trio got to face fellow pitchers.  Over his finals 14 starts last year (including playoffs), Estrada allowed more than 3 ER only once.  The most hits he allowed in any of those outings was six! While his numbers across two starts vs. Boston weren't that great, those came earlier in the season & I think here we'll be getting the pitcher we saw down the stretch.

Outside of Price, Boston's starting pitching was thought to be a concern coming into the year and the last few games have done little to alleviate that. The rotation has a horrible 8.53 ERA to this point and is fortunate that the bullpen has been able to come in and work a total of 16 innings, the last 10 of them being scoreless.  Toronto led early yday, 2-0 after one inning and 4-3 after three. Today it's knuckleballer Steven Wright starting for the road team and he's never really impressed me as his ERA last season was 4.09. In only three of his nine starts LY did he make it past the six inning mark. 9* Toronto

10* Portland (10:35 ET):  Sure, Minnesota is off B2B SU wins here, one of them the stunner of the year (at Golden State). But I see no reason why the Blazers shouldn't blow them out as all the motivational edges lie w/ the home team here. Portland has moved into 5th place in the Western Conference, passing injury-riddled Memphis, and can further cement their spot in the playoffs by winning here.  The T'wolves, meanwhile, should be more focused on the lottery.  Their last two wins have come on the road, but before that they had only 12 such victories and the Blazers happen to be a strong home team w/ a 27-12 record at the Moda Center thanks to a scoring average of 108.2 per game.  This should turn into a lopsided game.

Portland's "sweet spot" seems to be when playing w/ exactly two days rest as they are 10-3 straight up and against the spread.  Their only loss in the last seven games came at Golden State (Warriors were off 1st home loss of the season) and almost all of the six wins have been by comfortable margins, including a 110-93 win against Miami here at home.  Coming off a win over short-handed Oklahoma City (rested both Durant and Westbrook) and with the only two games remaining taking place here at home against Minnesota and Denver, you have to like this team's chances of finishing fifth.  Offensively, they have averaged 114.4 points their last five games, scoring at least 110 in every game.  That's too much firepower for Minnesota. 

Believe it or not, but the T'wolves were actually favored in both home games against Portland this season.  But both games took place back before the New Year and the Blazers won both anyway. What a job HC Terry Stotts has done this year in the face of losing four starters (including All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge) from last year's squad.  Since January 10th, the Blazers have won 28 of 41 games overall and they are 19-3 L22 at home  I expect them to shoot well from three-point range in this matchup and Damian Lillard to break out of a recent slump. Meanwhile, Minnesota is very "feast or famine" offensively as four of the last seven games have seen them fail to break 85 points. 10* Portland

8* Dallas (8:05 ET): Little is left to be decided in the NHL standings, but one thing still up for grabs is the Central Division title as the Stars and Blues enter Saturday tied for first place w/ 107 points each.  St. Louis is at home against Washington tonight and considering the Caps could rest players, it is imperative that the Stars take care of their own business here. All they need is a win and they would finish first and have home ice advantage throughout the Western Conference Playoffs due to the fact they have more regulation + OT wins than the Blues do.  Dallas is in fine form right now as they have won 8 of 10 while outscoring opponents 35 to 20. Nashville has nothing to play for here as they will play whomever wins the Pacific in the first round.  So go with the home team that has something to play for.

We know Dallas' story at this point.  They are 1st in the league in goals scored and while a 20th ranking in goals allowed is a bit concerning, the fact is they are 5th in Corsi and 6th in Fenwick, so they're puck possession numbers are very good.  The team has not dropped a home game since March 15th and is 27-11-2 here for the season (most home wins among West Conf teams) while outscoring the opposition by almost a full goal per game (3.4 to 2.6) thanks to an average edge in shots of 33.0 to 27.2.  They have won six of the last seven times they've hosted Nashville and that includes a 5-2 win a little over a week ago.

The Preds are off B2B wins, but those were both at home and at the expense of teams that won't be in the playoffs, Colorado and Arizona.  Prior to that, they'd dropped four in a row, not only including the 5-2 loss to the Stars, but another 5-2 loss to the Penguins, their only other road game during that stretch.  Again, they have absolutely nothing to play for here as they are locked into the 1st Wild Card spot in the Western Conference.  I would not be the least bit surprised to see them rest players, possibly including goalie Pekka Rinne.  Note that they had to come from behind to defeat Arizona (trailed 2-0) the other night, so there's even less reason to expend any real energy here. 8* Dallas

8* New Jersey (7:05 ET): This will be the last we see of either of these two teams this season as the Devils failure to keep things going after the All-Star Break kept them out of the playoffs while the Leafs could finish with the fewest points in the entire league (tied w/ Edmonton w/ 69).  Being that they're on the road, I just can't see Toronto summoning up whatever is necessary to win here, especially because they just won a road game on Thursday (4-3 over the Flyers).  Back to back road wins is something that you simply should not expect from this club seeing as the last time they won consecutive games that were away from home was mid-November!  The Devils don't want to end the year on a five-game losing streak.

It should be pointed out that three of New Jersey's last four losses came against the top two teams in the Atlantic, Florida and Tampa Bay (twice).  I've said it before and I'll say it again, this team's main problem is that they simply do not get many shots on goal (average only 24.3 per game). That's the fewest in the league and as a result they are also last in goals per game.  But Toronto is just 28th in scoring and this becomes an advantageous matchup for Devils when you consider they are 8th in goals allowed and the Maple Leafs are 23rd.  New Jersey also has the much better special teams as they are also 8th on both the power play and penalty kill.  While 0-2 vs. Toronto this year (both games on the road & both went to shootouts), they are 3-0 the L3 times hosting the Leafs.

Like the NBA, the NHL uses a lottery to determine the top of the draft order. Still, it would behoove Toronto to lose tonight as that result would only increase their chances of drafting 1st.  Finishing with the fewest points gives you 20 percent odds of winning the lottery, about a 6.5% greater chance than if they were to finish with the second fewest.  While motivation could potentially be low behind the Maple Leafs bench, you can bet that New Jersey will want to send Patrik Elias out a winner. This could be the final game for the franchise's career leader in both goals and points. Goaltender Corey Schneider has a 1.64 goals against average his L7 starts vs. Toronto. 8* New Jersey

8* Chicago (7:05 ET):  Nothing is actually on the line here as the Blackhawks are locked into third place in the Central (will play either Dallas or St. Louis in the 1st Round of the playoffs) while the Blue Jackets are guaranteed a last place finish in the Metro.  But in handicapping this regular season finale, there is one significant advantage for Chicago and that's the fact Columbus played last night in what was the only game on the Friday schedule (won 4-1 at Buffalo). That made it B2B road wins for this team, but tonight's a big step up in class from those two opponents (Toronto & Buffalo) and considering Chicago is the better team anyway, the benefit of rest is a good enough reason for me to take the visitors.

The 'Hawks let the division get away in March, but they have won five of their last seven coming into tonight. Off a 2-1 loss to St. Louis in the home finale, Joel Quenneville's team certainly will want to bounce back before seeking to win Lord Stanley's Cup for the fourth time since 2010.  Over the last five games, they've been outshot, but still have found a way to average an impressive 3.8 goals per game.  Thursday's loss to the Blues came in overtime, so the team has not dropped a game in regulation since March 29th and overall the numbers do look good as they rank sixth in the league in goals per game and ninth in goals allowed. Don't discount the #3 ranked power play either.  When playing a team w/ a losing record, their record is 27-12.

Home ice advantage has proven completely meaningless for the Blue Jackets as they've won just one of their last 10 games here at Nationwide Arena against the Blackhawks.  The last time they posted three consecutive victories was all the way back in mid-November! When playing in the second game of a back to back, their record is 6-11. They'll have to deal with Corey Crawford here, making his return for Chicago after an 11-game absence. Crawford stopped 22 of 23 shots when he faced C-bus earlier this year, a 4-1 Blackhawks victory.  While Chicago has predictably dominated foes w/ losing records, the Blue Jackets have predictably struggled against foes w/ winning records, going just 12-26 in them. 8* Chicago

9* NY Yankees (1:10 ET):  The Pinstripes were shutout yday, falling victim to a masterful showing by Jordan Zimmerman, who allowed only two hits in a sparkling debut for the Tigers. It was the eighth consecutive season that Detroit won its home opener, but there's obviously a lot more games to play and despite their 3-0 start, my prognosis on the Tigers remains lukewarm at best.  It was a cold afternoon and the Yanks sat Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran AND Brian McCann yesterday, so perhaps it should not have been any kind of shock to see the lineup dominated so thoroughly. All three figure to be back on Joe Girardi's card today and this I can guarantee, Detroit will both win 60 and lose 60 this season. It'll be one for the latter here.

Zimmerman obviously can't pitch every day for the Tigers and today it will be another new starter in the rotation, Mike Pelfrey, making his debut for the team. Pelfrey is off a subpar 2015 w/ Minnesota where he went 6-11 w/ a 4.26 ERA in 30 starts.  His KW rate has declined in recent seasons and while some have been touting his Spring as being "successful," note that he was hit pretty hard in his final start.  McCann looks to be the most important Yankee hitter returning to the lineup here as he not only is off to a 5 for 11 start at the plate this year, but is also hitting .452 in his career vs. Pelfrey! Remember that against Houston, this Yankees lineup scored 24 times and had 29 hits in three games.

Of course, the big story today for New York is the return of CC Sabathia.  The hefty lefty is coming off a miserable 2015 that ended w/ a stint in rehab while the team was playing in the Wild Card Game.  His numbers from the last couple years do not exactly inspire a lot of confidence, but I would not be surprised if he pitched well here. Note that he actually allowed 1 ER or less in four of his five September starts last season. Furthermore, we don't need a ton of innings from Sabathia here as the Yankees' bullpen is one of the best in the sport.  Detroit is just 8-11 the previous two seasons when coming off a shutout win and the Yankees have long been a money-maker in day games.  9* NY Yankees

10* Over Lakers/Pelicans (8:05 ET):  These two awful teams have combined to stay Under the total in 10 straight games, the Pelicans accounting for six of those and the Lakers four. Los Angeles sure couldn't do much in either game of a home & home vs. the Clippers this week, scoring only 81 points in both games.  Meanwhile, the depleted Pelicans failed to get to 100 in losses at Philadelphia and Boston.  But even with the recent slew a pathetic offensive showings from both sides, I believe we have a total that's simply too low here.  The Lakers, in terms of efficiency, are the worst defensive team in the league and then you have the Pelicans only five spots higher. There probably won't be a lot of defense played here, so take the Over.

This is the third and (obviously) final meeting of the season between the two teams and the first two did both stay Under the total. But this promises to be the lowest number yet of the trio of matchups.  Interestingly, the last time the Lakers and Pelicans met, it was a 99-96 victory here in New Orleans.  What's significant about that is that the Over is a stunning 28-10 in Pelicans' home games this season, including 8-1 if they are favored by three points or less (which they are here). They are also 18-5 Over as favorites of any kind.  In that last meeting, they were 9.5-pt faves, but shot only 4 of 20 from three-point range and missed 12 of 26 free throws. I don't anticipate those kind of shooting woes repeating themselves this time around.

As mentioned before, the Lakers are just awful defensively. They give up 110.3 PPG on the road.  So, just an "average" performance by them at that end of the floor should give us what we need tonight.  Now, offensively, we will need more than the hideous 87.8 points they've been averaging the last six games.  Fortunately, the Pelicans give up 105.9 PPG here at home and the average amount of scoring that takes place in Pelicans' home games this year is 211.6 PPG.  Those are numbers that an awful shooter like Kobe Bryant can even take advantage of.  Bryant will certainly get his fair share of looks in this one, and while normally that might scare me, he did score 27 the last time he faced New Orleans. 10* Over Lakers/Pelicans

8* St. Louis (7:35 ET):  This is like the Pittsburgh play, only the two teams involved here are both winless, as opposed to unbeaten.  Again, one of those is a surprise, the other not so much. Little is expected from Atlanta this year, in fact, many expect them to be quite possibly the worst team in all of baseball.  As for St. Louis, they might take a step back, but getting swept by the Pirates had to be a bit of a shock.   I think this weekend's series will be more suitable for them, tonight's opener in particular, as the offense can only get better and lefty Jaime Garcia should pitch well. The Braves scored only four runs in their first two games and it's going to be a really long season for them. St. Louis can - and should - bounce back here.

Similar to Pittsburgh-Cincinnati, I was shocked to rediscover that the better team here (St. Louis) had a losing head to head record last year with tonight's inferior opponent.  Atlanta took four of the six games, including a three-game sweep here in Turner Field where they actually shutout the Redbirds in all three games! One of those was started by Matt Wisler, who gets the baseball here, but I wouldn't go expecting a repeat.  The Cards may not have the same edge the Pirates have in their matchup (Braves also had yday off, Reds didn't), but they're still a much better ballclub. While some will want to point towards Wisler's performance against the Cards in that final series last year, note his strikeout to walk ratio was pretty bad (72-40) for the season & he allowed 16 home runs. Lefties really got to him (.986 OPS) and over his final 13 starts, his ERA was a woeful 5.51.

Over the previous two seasons, St. Louis is 12-3 when on a three-game losing skid. So, again, the odds are in their favor that that they'll turn things around.  One of the three losses in Pittsburgh came in extra innings and three errors really did them no favors on Wednesday.  The lefty Garcia comes off a season where his ERA was 2.43 and remember the Braves were the lowest scoring offense in all of baseball in 2015.  They were also last in both slugging & OPS against southpaws.  So the fact they scored just four runs in two games so far is no surprise. 8* St. Louis

8* Pittsburgh (7:10 ET): Suffice to say, one of the three 3-0 teams in the National League Central doesn't seem to "fit in" and that would be Cincinnati, who many (myself included) feel are a lock to be among the six worst teams in all of baseball this year (all six teams reside in the National League!). The key for the Reds' 3-0 start is that they got to play another of those six, Philadelphia, at home to start the year. They get to stay in Great American Ballpark this weekend, but it's a step up in competition as fellow unbeaten Pittsburgh comes calling fresh off its own sweep to start the year (St. Louis), which was far more impressive.  Believe it or not, but the Pirates actually had a losing record against the Reds last season (8-11, -7.5 units). But I do not expect that to be the case in 2016 or this weekend for that matter.

I think a lot of people (again, myself included) expect the Cardinals to take a step back this year, but the ease with which the Bucs disposed of them was pretty impressive.  Francisco Liriano started the first game of that series and though he walked five batters (just three hits), he didn't allow any runs over six innings.  It's a weaker lineup that he'll be facing in his second start and Liriano was one Pirates starter that really didn't have a ton of trouble w/ the Reds in 2015 as he went 2-0 in three starts overall and in the two that came here at Great American Ballpark, he allowed just two runs and five hits in 13 innings of work.  Dating back to the end of last season, the Pirates have now won Liriano's last six starts, two of those coming against Cincinnati.

Pittsburgh's offense was able to score 15 runs against St. Louis w/o hitting a single home run, so you have to like their chances against a pretty suspect Reds staff this weekend.  Cincy gave up six runs yday, a game where a grand slam (in an eight-run inning) proved to be the difference.  Lost in the sweep is the fact the Reds are still w/o several potential key contributors to their lineup.  Brandon Phillips (stomach virus) could be back tonight, but I just think this team lacks the firepower to keep pace with the Pirates. Starter Alfredo Simon is new to the National League (though he did face Pittsburgh twice last year) and is likely to struggle here. 8* Pittsburgh

8* Brooklyn (7:05 ET):  The Nets - by any measure - are not a good team. A six-game straight up (and against the spread) losing streak confirms that right off the bat. They are also just 21-57 SU for the year (7-32 in road games) and rate as the fourth worst team in the league, ahead of only Phoenix, Philadelphia and the Lakers. But while many other teams in a similar position are thinking about tanking for a better lottery position, Brooklyn has no such luxury. That's because their 1st round pick is owed to Boston, so the incentive to tank that those other teams may have really shouldn't be present here. I realize that the Nets' resume is hardly inspiring, but tonight's matchup w/ Charlotte reminds me of the Hornets' game last Friday against Philadelphia when I took the points and won. Do the same again here.

Last Friday's spread vs. the 76ers, who some might consider to be the worst team in the league, had the Hornets favored by 13. I labeled that number "too rich for me" as rarely is this team in this price range.  Tonight's spread is even higher and in fact is the most points Charlotte has had to lay since a game in March of '08 against an injury-depleted Heat squad that dressed only nine players.   Including the non-cover LW vs. Philly, the Hornets are 1-2 ATS this year as a favorite of 12.5 or more points, all of those games coming here at home obviously.  All three matchups w/ Brooklyn so far this season have been decided by single digits.

Brooklyn's defense has been really bad of late, that I will concede. Wednesday, they allowed the Wizards to make 40 of 67 two-point attempts. That just can't happen. Some of that had to do with the decision to shut down both Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young for the remainder of the year. But I feel the remaining players will be quite hungry.  Charlotte could be w/o Nic Batum here (Update: he is probable to play) and has lost its last two games w/ him out of the lineup.  Don't look for Kemba Walker to be as hot as he was Wednesday vs. the Knicks (made 7 of 10 three-pointers) though and the Nets also have a winning ATS record this season when taking 12.5 or more points.  They can - and will - stay within this generous number. 8* Brooklyn

10* Under Blue Jackets/Sabres (7:05 ET):  Little, if anything, is on the line in Friday's lone NHL matchup as like most of the league, these two clubs will be wrapping up their regular season tomorrow. (Columbus will host the Blackhawks while Buffalo is at the Islanders). Give credit to the Sabres for playing tough down the stretch when it really doesn't matter (they've won three straight!) and the Blue Jackets are coming off a 5-1 win in Toronto themselves. But I think that the recent rash of scoring we've seen from both teams will subside a bit here as both average only 2.4 goals per game for the season and actually haven't been getting that many shots on goal during the respective scoring "surges." Take the Under.

Let's look at Buffalo first.  They've scored a total of 17 goals the L5 games (15 of those coming in the last four) despite some real pedestrian shot totals. In fact, the team's last game saw only 37 combined shots from them and the Devils (won 3-1)!  The game before that, they managed only 24 shots, yet beat the Rangers 4-3.  That's a pretty high shooting percentage and it's now reached 13.2% over those L5 games. Keep in mind this team is only 25th in the league in scoring and when the total is 5.5 and they're here at home, the Under is 9-4 this season. I realize that Jack Eichel is currently grabbing all of the headlines, but goaltender Chad Johnson has played well of late too. He has a 2.13 goals against average his last seven starts.

Columbus, meanwhile, is unlikely to repeat its five goal performance from the last game as their 32 shots against Toronto marked a six-game high for them.  They just scored five times in another road win (at Carolina) earlier this month and then came back and scored just twice their next time out.  Prior to beating the Maple Leafs, this team had lost five of six, totaling only nine goals in the losses.  Back in February, on home ice, they were shut out by the Sabres.  Their only saving grace here could be having Sergei Bobrovsky between the pipes as he owns a .924 save percentage on the road (much higher than at home). He stopped 26 of the 27 shots he saw Wednesday in Toronto.  10* Under Blue Jackets/Sabres

10* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): It was a relatively easy draw for Baltimore to open the season as they got Minnesota here at Camden Yards and they took advantage by sweeping the Twins in low-scoring fashion. Though they get to stay at home this weekend, the task at hand will be a lot tougher, at least on Friday as Tampa Bay starts Chris Archer. Run suppression was not supposed to be the O's strong suit in 2016, but they held Minnesota to just six runs over the three games of that series. Almost as surprising, however, was their own lineup being limited to just 11 runs.  The Twins don't really have any pitchers that will make you swing and miss all that much, but in Archer the Rays do and I see him pitching his team to victory here.

Tampa Bay had Thursday off, which is a nice little advantage to have.  They opened their season by splitting a four-game set with division favorite Toronto, taking the final two games. Obviously, a lot of the focus there was on a "controversial" win Tuesday by the Rays as the game ended when MLB's new rule on breaking up double plays came to the forefront.  But don't let the fact that the Rays held the high-powered Blue Jays to only 15 runs in four games go unnoticed, nor the fact that the offense hit six home runs.  Though it's still early in the season, I feel the Rays having yday off does give them a "leg up" here as Baltimore not only played yday, but also had to deal w/ a rain delay.

This will be Archer's second start of the season. His first came on Opening Day (Sunday) and while he lasted only five innings (threw 107 pitches), he did strike out 12 batters.  Given the fact that the Rays staff just struck out 46 hitters in the previous series, this will be a very different type matchup for Orioles hitters after facing the Twins (whose strikeout rate is always among the lowest in MLB) and they struck out 23 times there anyway!  Baltimore starter Chris Tillman does not have a good track record of success here at Camden Yards against Tampa Bay w/ a 5.52 ERA in 11 starts. Due to another rain delay, he was limited to only two innings in his first start (Monday), so he could still be a bit rusty.  I'm pretty low on the Orioles this season, so they won't stay unbeaten for long.  10* Tampa Bay

8* Over Spurs/Warriors (10:35 ET):  I know how low-scoring the last meeting between these two was as I was on the Spurs, who won 87-79 as five-point favorites.  Given that result and the current states of the Warriors (lost 2 of 3), it's also tempting to take the points here, but I'll pass as it's always tempting to take the points in a matchup of two top teams yet you'd be surprised just how often the favorite comes out ahead.  Therefore, it's back to the total. The Under has cashed each of the last four meetings as well as six of the last seven.  But with Golden State at home this time, they won't shoot anywhere close to as poorly as they did back on March 19th.  Remember this team is just two games removed from scoring 136 pts in regulation. Take the Over.

San Antonio isn't too shabby offensively either as they are third in efficiency, trailing only Golden State and Oklahoma City.  So, with a battle of two of the top three efficient offenses in the league, I think it's fair to expect a lot more scoring than what we saw three weeks ago.  Neither team shot well there as the Spurs were only 41.0 percent from the field (GSW was at 37.8%), but did make up for it w/ 8 of 21 shooting from three-point range. Very few free throws were attempted in the game as well (just 28 total!) as the Warriors only got to the line 10 times (they average 22 FT attempts per game!).  Also helping to keep this O/U line down is the fact the Spurs come off a very low-scoring game against the Jazz, who are #2 defensively in the NBA and last in pace of play. It will be a massive shift in tempo tonight.

Steph Curry really struggled in that last meeting as he was just 4 of 18 from the floor, including 1 of 12 from three-point range.  He also struggled in Tuesday's stunner vs. the T'wolves as he missed his first eight shots in the first half.  Absolutely, he'll be better tonight.  The one concern I have with Golden State right now is that defensively they are allowing 106.8 PPG the L5 games.  There is always the chance San Antonio HC Greg Popovich rests players, but the bottom line is his team is 0-3 SU/ATS as an underdog, giving up an average of 114.3 PPG in those contests. 8* Over Spurs/Warriors

10* LA Angels (10:05 ET): Quite frankly, I'm not very high on the Halos coming into the year, but a third straight loss at home to open the year sounds like a bit much. It must be recognized that the first two came at the hands of the Cubs, a team that's going to deal a lot of other teams a lot of losses this year.  That being said, managing only one run in the two games had to be a little disconcerting for manager Mike Scioscia. But here comes Texas and a bullpen that just got roughed up by Seattle in its first series. I'm not high on the defending AL West champs either this year and think this will be LA's first win of the season.

The Rangers were lucky to even win one in Arlington against the Mariners as the game they did win (season opener) saw them finish w/ only one hit! From there, they were hit hard (allowed 19 runs L2 days) and yday was particularly crushing as they gave up five runs in the top of the ninth. That will be a difficult loss to bounce back from and considering the Angels had Wednesday off, it's a nice early season scheduling edge that the home team receives here.  The Halos had a winning record vs. Texas last year (12-7), much like Seattle did. Over the L2 seasons, the Angels are 26-12 in this AL West rivalry.

Starting tonight for the Rangers will be Derek Holland.  Despite having a winning record against the Angels and them being his most common opponent, the numbers are not all that impressive. In fact, his career ERA is 5.46 in 20 starts against them. Couple that with a shaky bullpen and I expect the home team to have a big night at the plate here.  The Angels counter Holland w/ Hector Santiago, an All-Star last year that tailed off in the second half.  But one of his better late season starts came against the Rangers, here at home, when he tossed six scoreless innings of one-hit ball. As I did in my analysis of Seattle-Texas two days ago, I'll again reference that I believe the Rangers offense is set to decline pretty significantly this year and their defense is projected to be poor.  10* LA Angels

10* Atlanta (8:05 ET): This number might look a little "steep" to some and that was my initial thought as well, until I noticed the so-called "smart" money appeared to be hammering the Hawks.  Despite receiving less than a majority of total bets, the line is going up here and that always seems to be a positive sign for a favorite a la Philadelphia was for me on Tuesday night.  Toronto is essentially "locked into" the second seed in the East and really has nothing to play for these last few games while Atlanta is looking to earn at least home court advantage for a first round series, if not the #3 seed.  They've been the hotter team of late (won 13 of 17) and have revenge for an eight-point loss in Toronto last week.  Lay the points.

Two of the Hawks' last four losses have come to the Raptors. In fact, they are 0-3 head to head w/ Toronto this season. So, psychologically, this is a game they need to win.  It's not as if any of the three prior meetings were one-sided. Now that being said, the Raptors did lead by as many as 20, in Toronto, last week.  I kind of thought the home team was a solid value in that one (-1), but here the tables have turned and it's an Atlanta team that's holding opponents to 97.7 PPG here at home that's the value.  The Hawks have held their last seven opponents to just 40.2 percent shooting, which is obviously outstanding, and in the last game Phoenix (granted, a woeful team) couldn't break the 20-point barrier in any of the final three quarters.

Toronto has won two of three since beating Atlanta last Wednesday and while their last two losses came at the hands of San Antonio and Oklahoma City, they've dropped three of five on the road w/ the only wins coming at the expense of injury-riddled teams, Memphis and New Orleans.  The offense has failed to score 100 points in three consecutive contests and it should be pointed out that outside of facing their own division (which has three terrible teams), the Raptors' ATS record is downright mediocre.  10* Atlanta

10* Under Coyotes/Predators (8:05 ET):  The schedule makers certainly have done Arizona no favors with this stretch of road games to close out the season. Off losses at St. Louis (5-2) and Chicago (6-2), the 'Yotes are just wishing for the season to end at this point. Tonight's game will be their fourth straight road game against the top four in the Central and considering how the previous three have gone (also lost 4-1 at Dallas), their prospects here are not looking good.  As for Nashville, they are off a big 4-3 win over Colorado on Tuesday and are in the playoffs as a Wild Card (will play the winner of the Pacific in the 1st round). Despite the recent rash of high scoring games on both sides, I see a low-scoring game taking place here as little is on the line and neither team is likely to take many chances. Take the Under.

It should be pointed out that prior to beating Colorado, Nashville had been struggling. They had, in fact, dropped four straight and to be clear they've allowed at least three goals in five consecutive games. But I have reason to believe that goalie Pekka Rinne won't be tested much here as the last time he faced Arizona (Dec 1) he saw only 15 shots (!). Rinne has a 2.00 goals against average in his career vs. the Coyotes (21 games) and has beaten them five straight times.  Nashville typically does an outstanding job at limiting the # of shots Rinne or whomever is between the pipes face here at home (just 26.8 per game) and that's a big reason why the rank 7th in Corsi and 2nd in Fenwick.  They are also 52-34 Under their L86 games vs. a team w/ a losing record.

Goal prevention from Arizona is obviously key here. Fortunately though, they average only 2.2 goals per game on the road this season and there's been only three games total since St. Patrick's Day (Mar 17) where they've been above that number and all three games took place at home.  On the road this year, the Under is 15-9 for the team when the total is 5.5 goals.  Mike Smith actually still has a solid .927 save percentage his L4 starts overall. 10*  Under Coyotes/Predators

8* Carolina (7:05 ET):  The Hurricanes are one of the 10 teams that won't be making the Eastern Conference playoffs. So is Montreal.  In both instances, blame lies at the skates of the goaltenders, who have let their respective teams down. The collective save percentages for the 'Canes and Habs has hovered at just slightly above .900 all season long and that simply won't cut it as of the bottom nine teams in the league in that department, only Dallas will be headed to the playoffs. With the Canadiens, it's easy to understand the struggles as they lost Carey Price right around Thanksgiving and haven't been the same team since. But for Carolina, it's a bit harder to understand. This team really should be higher up in the standings. They did win Tuesday (in a shootout) over Boston and I think they win again here.

Since Price went down, Montreal is an awful 19-34-4 their last 57 games and that includes a 6-20-2 road record that is the worst in the league during that time. No team has given up more goals per game (3.14) than the Canadiens have since losing Price. I played against them Tuesday as for a second straight game they lost to Florida while giving up four goals.  This time, it came despite a 33-19 edge in shots. With Price out and backup Mike Condon struggling, the team turns to Charlie Lindgren, who will be making his first NHL start between the pipes tonight. Not only that, but the Habs are also going to be w/o their top skater PK Subban in this one. It's a real "skeleton crew" right now on the ice w/ a ton of new faces.

Carolina has had the issues in goal all season, but lately Cam Ward has been playing well.  He made 35 saves against the Bruins two nights ago and has a .947 save percentage his L3 starts (1.58 goals against average).  In two games vs. Montreal this year, he's stopped 69 of 72 shots.  The Hurricanes have really good puck possession numbers as they rank 4th in Corsi and 7th in Fenwick.  They typically outshoot their opponents, but it just seems that the puck has been cruel to them all season (opposing goaltenders have a .919 save percentage against them). But on a 13-6-4 run here on home ice, I see them delivering tonight. 8* Carolina

8* Over Islanders/Rangers (7:05 ET):  There really isn't a ton to play for here as both teams are now safely in the playoffs and neither is likely to have home ice advantage for their first round series.  Quite frankly, a fourth place finish in the Metro might be better than a third as you would avoid both Washington and Pittsburgh (and play surprise Atlantic winner Florida). So, I certainly won't be endorsing a side here, but rather it's the total that caught my eye as both teams have turned it on offensively as of late. The Isles were part of a winning Over ticket for me earlier in the week when they beat Tampa Bay 5-2 and then followed that up w/ a 4-3 win at Washington the next night. Meanwhile, the Rangers have scored a total of 29 goals in their last eight games, all of those seeing at least five total goals scored. Take the Over.

The Rangers, like the Isles, have won B2B games and one was against Tampa Bay. They beat the Lightning 3-2 on Tuesday, but overcame an early 2-0 hole to do so and actually gave up a frightening number of shots (21!) in the first period alone.  But goal scoring simply has not been an issue for this team of late as they have 13 in the last four games and only twice in the L10 games have they failed to notch at least three.  Hence, the Over is 7-0-3 during that time and it should also be pointed out that they've given up multiple goals (at least two) in all ten games.  Henrik Lundqvist's save percentage in his last four starts is only .897.

The Islanders have had no problems scoring themselves recently (nine goals L2 games) nor here in Madison Square Garden where they've averaged an impressive 4.3 gpg their last seven visits. That includes six goals in a win here last month.  The final score there was 6-4 and I feel we'll see a similar type game here as the Rangers are 9-4 Over when seeking revenge for a home loss while the Islanders are 8-3 Over on the road this season when the total is 5.0.  Isles goalie Thomas Griess has been solid of late, but is not that far removed from a stretch where he allowed 3+ goals in four consecutive contests. 8* Over Islanders/Rangers

9* Oakland (3:35 ET):  After losing a pair of one-run games (had a MLB-leading 35 of those LY) to open the year, the A's bounced back (I was on them!) yday w/ a one-run win of their own Wednesday, 2-1 behind Sonny Gray.  I still believe that this team (Oakland) comes into the  year a little bit underrated, as they were more "unlucky" than "bad" in 2015 and that came on the heels of a 2014 where they finished well short of their expected win total (based on run differential) as well.  Gray overcame a bout of food poisoning to deliver a quality start for the club last night and now today sees Kendall Graveman (also dealt w/ food poisoning) looking to do the same.  Look for Graveman to deliver against a weak lineup this afternoon.

Day games have not gone well for the White Sox the last two seasons as they are just 44-71 in them.  With this being a quick turnaround from last night, Jimmy Rollins will be given Thursday off, which certainly won't help a lineup that managed only one run yesterday. In fact, Rollins (came over in the offseason) accounted for the team's lone RBI yday (via sac fly). As I said in yday's analysis, the White Sox were also the lowest scoring offense in the AL last season.  Pitching today for the Southsiders will be Mat Latos, who did not have a good Spring (10.38 ERA L3 starts) and is coming off a career-worst year to boot (4.95 ERA).  Historically, Latos has also struggled in the month of April w/ a 4-11 career record and 4.74 ERA.

As for Graveman, he had a poor finish to 2015, but like the rest of the team should be slated for a bounce back.  He's never faced Chicago, which could be an advantage as the hitters will be unfamiliar w/ him.  As for the Oakland hitters, they haven't done much yet in this series, but also have faced three lefties.  When it comes to the White Sox and run prevention this year, one area to monitor is pitch framing as newly acquired catcher Alex Avila is very poor in that department, which could lead to some troubles for the pitching staff.  I'll call for the A's to have their best offensive showing of the season to date and for Graveman and the bullpen to take care of the rest.  9* Oakland

8* Over Clippers/Lakers (10:35 ET):  These teams just met last night and it was the Clippers coming out on top by a score of 103-81.  With the Lakers scoring only 37 points total in the second half, obviously the game stayed Under and that's the way the total has now gone in each of the six matchups between the two Staples Center tenants.  Obviously, the home-road designation is completely meaningless here. Given the Lakers defensive ineptitude, I think we're in store for a higher scoring game Wednesday night, provided the "home" team can also raise its own level of scoring, which has sunk to a woeful average of 89.2 PPG its last five games.  Take the Over.

Offensively, the Lakers have been held back all year by Kobe Bryant's absolutely atrocious shooting (worst jump shooter in the league this season) and last night was no different as he totaled just six points on 2 of 12 shooting.  Bryant did score 34 Sunday vs. Boston, so you had to figure regression was in the cards.  But tonight, thankfully, we're going to get a better performance because, really, he can't possibly be any worse. Now, one area that the Lakers can be worse in tonight is defensively.  This is a team that is 30th in defensive efficiency and gives up 106.8 PPG.   They've given up at least 100 eight straight times and in the two games previous to last night the Under cashed just barely.  So, I'd say it's very reasonable to expect the Lakers to both score and allow more points tonight.

The Clippers are second in the league in offensive efficiency and that's with Blake Griffin (likely to sit out here) missing most of the season. So they should be able to "carve up" the Lakers a little more than last night when they clearly took their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter (only 19 pts scored), up big.  It's not like they'll miss the four points Griffin scored last night anyway.  At the same time, I earlier spoke of likely Lakers offensive improvement and to back that up, I find it difficult to believe that the starting five will go 10 of 51 from the floor yet again.  The Over is 11-5 when the Lakers are playing the second of back to back games and tonight's total (lower than last night's) is too low.  8* Over Clippers/Lakers

8* Oakland (10:05 ET):  "Moneyball" is not dead, it just hasn't been working out for the A's for the last season-plus. Last year saw this team lose a mind-numbing 35 one-run games (most in the league) and they've now dropped two more to open 2016 having fallen 4-3 and 5-4 to the White Sox the last two days. But good news is on the horizon for Billy Beane's club as staff ace Sonny Gray - who was supposed to start Opening Day, but came down w/ food poisoning (or maybe just the flu) - gets the baseball tonight and I like his chances against what was the weakest hitting lineup in the American League a season ago.  Look for the home team to come through in this ESPN2 matchup. 

The A's actually rallied to tie last night's game in the bottom of the eighth (4-4) before the bullpen - last year's Achilles heel - screwed them once again as closer Sean Dolittle gave up a home run to Jimmy Rollins in the top of the ninth. That result came on the heels of another tough one Monday that saw all seven runs (4 by Chicago, 3 by Oakland) scored in one inning (the 3rd). That loss was a little more excusable considering Gray's unexpected absence. But he's back and ready to go Wednesday. Gray posted the American League's third best ERA (2.73) in 2015 and deserved far better than a 17-14 overall team start record, considering at home his WHIP was 0.987. 

Oakland has not started a season 0-3 in 20 years, so history is on their side this evening.  No team wants to open up the season w/ an unsuccessful first series at home and the A's still have a chance to earn themselves a split here. Having underachieved in B2B seasons, you have to think their overall luck is "due" to turn sometime in the near future, right?  The White Sox bullpen didn't exactly prove itself to be reliable last night, so maybe that's the difference in this one as I still believe A's relievers are due to improve pretty dramatically after the disaster that was 2015.  While White Sox starter Carlos Rondon posted some nice numbers down the stretch last year, he also still finished w/ a 1.413 WHIP, which is simply not very good, and quite frankly he didn't look all that great in the Spring.  8* Oakland

9* Over Flyers/Red Wings (8:05 ET):  This is a huge game in the Eastern Conference playoff picture as there's only two spots left up for grabs and these two are part of a three-way tie for seventh w/ 91 points.  I do not have a strong opinion on who is going to win, but as far as the total is concerned, I'm really liking the Over as the last eight Detrot games have all seen at least five total goals scored.  Neither team here is in the top 20 in goals per game, but the Wings have scored exactly three in four straight plus the Flyers just gave up six their last time out.  At the same time, these teams combined for seven goals (4-3 Philly win) last month (all even strength) as there were a combined 83 shots in the contest.  So, yeah, take the Over.

Here's where we currently stand in the Eastern Conference. The Flyers only shot to make the playoffs is by grabbing the last remaining Wild Card spot.  Four teams in the Metro have already clinched and Philly has no way of finishing in the top three in the division (which guarantees you a playoff berth).  As for Detroit, either they or Boston (other team w/ 91 pts) is guaranteed to make the playoffs as the third place team in the Atlantic. Both the Wings and Bruins can make it, which would of course mean that the Flyers would be the odd team out. So the stakes are high tonight and while usually you might then expect a low-scoring game, these teams don't really have that kind of make-up.

In terms of goals allowed, both clubs are middle of the pack and Philly's problem is that they give up far too many shots (31.2 per game).  They've allowed more than that season average (4th most in the league) the L2 games (74 total), but at the same time have totaled 30 or more themselves in seven straight. So, it's reasonable to expect some wide-open hockey here when factoring in Detroit's recent results as well.  I'm not sold on either likely starting goaltender here and the Flyers are 14-7 Over L21 road games when the total is 5.0 while the Red Wings are 33-17 Over L50 home games when the total is 5.0.  9* Over Flyers/Red Wings

10* Over Pelicans/Celtics (7:35 ET): Boston is the highest scoring team in the Eastern Conference (105.7 PPG) and it's become pretty rare to see them held under 100 points. In fact, that's happened just six times since January 12th & in half of those they still scored at least 97.  The result of this scoring barrage has been a rather dramatic increase in the average O/U line we're seeing for their games this year. Consider that the average O/U line for a Celtics game this season is 207.5.  Last year, they played in only 21 games where the O/U line was that high.  Lately, we've seen the linesmakers post some really high totals for their games and the result is that the Celtics have gone Under in six of the past seven games. But tonight, it's a better number to work with, and I see this one flying Over!

When looking to take a team Over the total, it's helpful to have a "willing dance partner" and in this instance, we've got one w/ New Orleans, who gives up 105.7 PPG.   I played against the injury-riddled Pelicans last night as they gave up 107 points to the worst offensive team in the league (Philadelphia). Losing by double digits to the Sixers is in no way a good sign for a team simply playing out the string.  The Pelicans' defense had turned in B2B strong efforts in wins over Brooklyn and Denver, but I don't see that being the case here in the second game of a back to back.  While the Under has cashed w/ great regularity in New Orleans road games this season (as opposed to at home where they are 28-10 Over), I see a different story unfolding tonight.

These teams met back in December and the O/U line was actually higher (211.5) then. The game stayed Under despite Boston scoring 111 points on 49.4% shooting (were 12 of 29 from three-point range).  While I have very little concern over what the Celtics scoring output will be tonight, it is clear that we'll need "help" from New Orleans, who must find a way to score despite not having its top five scorers (all injured!).  Fortunately, the Celtics tend to give up their fair share as well (107.0 PPG L5) and they are 2-0 Over this year when favored by 12.5 or more at home. 10* Over Pelicans/Celtics

10* Toronto (7:05 ET):   I'm going back to the mentality of taking the team w/ home ice advantage when it's a battle of also-rans as tonight marks the Maple Leafs' final game at the Air Canada Centre this season.  The club has dropped five of six, but they've at least been competitive in the last two, losing to both Detroit and Florida (at home) by only one goal. This will be the weakest opponent that the Leafs have gotten to host since March 21st when they beat Calgary 5-2 (also beat Buffalo 4-1 here the game before that). Columbus comes calling here and has also dropped five of its last six. Really, when you look at it, Toronto is a pretty solid value on the money line tonight.

Right now, the Leafs are tied w/ Edmonton for the fewest points in the entire NHL (67).  But they are also tied for Columbus in terms of goal differential at -41, so again this matchup appears to be mispriced.  The Blue Jackets, who opened this season with eight straight losses and never really recovered, only have 70 points.  On the road, they are 14-25  and while the Leafs' home record is 14-26, note nine of those losses have come after regulation. That's easily the most OT+shootout losses at home of any team in the league.  While the road team is 2 for 2 in the season series, I look for that trend to change here.

Toronto has lost three in a row here at home.  They have not dropped four straight home games since March of 2014.  They did have an edge in shots (34-26) vs. Detroit Saturday night, but Florida proved to be too tough on Monday, jumping out to a three-goal lead. Still, I was impressed w/ the way in which the Leafs fought back (scored three times in the third period) and think that might have a "carryover" type effect here. As for Columbus, they've been giving up a lot of shots lately (34.3 per game L5) and that's an area in which Toronto has actually improved this season.  In fact, the Leafs are shockingly second in the league(!) in Corsi and seventh in Fenwick, which is a far cry from the Blue Jackets, who rank 24th in both categories.  Root, root for the home team. 10* Toronto

8* Cleveland (6:10 ET):  After the opener was pushed back a day because of cold weather, Boston drew "first blood" in this series w/ a 6-2 win on Tuesday. David Price looked very good in his Red Sox debut, striking out 10 over six innings and getting the win.  I was a little disappointed to see the Indians' Corey Kluber give up four runs and nine hits in just 5 1/3 IP, but the key to this series is that Cleveland has the far deeper starting rotation. Beyond Price, there's still real trouble for the Red Sox in that department, while the Tribe had - by most measures - the best staff in the American League last year. This rotation, coupled w/ an improved defense, I believe makes Cleveland one of the teams to beat this year in the AL. I look for them to bounce back w/ a big win Wednesday.

It will be Carlos Carrasco on the mound this evening for the Indians. He ended 2015 on a bit of a historic run, striking out at least five batters in 18 consecutive outings.  You'd have to go back 60 years to find a pitcher for this franchise that has done that. Carrasco (10.58) was a major reason why Cleveland pitchers led the league in K's per nine innings last year.  Over his final 10 starts, Carrasco limited opponents to a .163 batting average and went the distance three different times. He was 11th in the league in WHIP (1.07) and one of only 16 pitchers w/ an opponents OPS under .650.  So, you have to take the 14-12 record w/ a "grain of salt" as clearly he pitched much better than that indicates. 

Boston counters w/ Clay Buchholz, who is off an injury-ravaged 2015. He had been pitching well before an elbow injury ended his season in July.  Strangely, he threw over 100 pitches in a game last Saturday.  I know that Cleveland is down two of its top hitters (Michael Brantley, Lonnie Chisenhall) to start the season, but overall the lineup should still be more potent than what we saw against Price yday.  Meanwhile, I am unconvinced that the Red Sox offense can be as prolific as they were yday when they hit two two-run homers. The Red Sox defense isn't that great either while the Indians project to be one of the top teams in the field this year thanks to Francisco Lindor.  8* Cleveland

8* Miami (4:55 ET):  These two teams didn't open up the season until Tuesday and for Detroit, it was worth the wait as they prevailed in a wild, 11-inning affair by a score of 8-7.  It was a game that saw the Marlins rally back from a five-run deficit, scoring three times in the bottom of the ninth (not a good look for new Tigers' closer Francisco Rodriguez). Starter Justin Verlander pitched well for the road team, blanking the Fish for the first five frames and allowing only three hits in a six-inning outing. Wei-Yin Chen, making his debut in a Miami uniform, didn't fare nearly as well. But tonight, I look for the tables to turn as the home team sends out their ace, Jose Fernandez, who has NEVER lost a decision in this ballpark!

Yes, you read that correctly.  Fernandez is 17-0 all-time at Marlins Park. Getting a full season of him this year is paramount to the team's success. (Remember he started LY on the disabled list & didn't make his first start until July).  Currently, he is slated to pitch somewhere between 180 and 200 innings in 2016 as due to injury he's made only 19 starts the past two seasons. Fernandez comes off a spring where he struck out 24 in 18.3 IP and last season saw him strike out 79 batters in 64 2/3 IP. In only one of his 11 starts LY did he allow more than 3 ER.  Getting back to his home dominance, his career ERA here (27 lifetime starts) is a minuscule 1.40. He'll benefit today from facing a Tigers lineup that is forced to send the pitcher to the plate, not a DH (National League park). 

I feel that Miami is a team that will improve in 2016.  Meanwhile, I'm not sold on Detroit, an older team that was outscored by an AL-worst 114 runs a year ago. Rodriguez's Opening Day woes are not a good sign for a staff that allowed the most runs in the American League last year and I do not anticipate Anibal Sanchez giving the team the same kind of quality start Verlander did last night. Sanchez is currently dealing w/ a triceps injury that almost landed him on the DL to start the season. This coming on the heels of a poor 2015 (4.99 ERA in 25 starts) that ended on the DL after posting a 7.01 ERA in his final five starts.  Dee Gordon and Giancarlo Stanton both did their jobs for the Miami offense yday and now I look for Fernandez to do his, resulting in the Marlins first win of 2016.  8* Miami

8* Arizona (9:40 ET):  Of all the results on Opening Day/Night, I think it's fair to say that "Colorado 10 Arizona 5" was the most surprising.  Especially because the host D'backs were trotting out their "shiny new toy" aka Zack Greinke (acquired in free agency in the offseason) to the mound. But Greinke had one of his worst starts EVER, allowing seven earned runs for the first time since 2012, six of them in one inning. Greinke gave up three home runs, two of them to Rockies' rookie Trevor Story, something that he hadn't done in any start since 2009!  As disappointing a debut as that might have been, I have reason to believe that the home team bounces back tonight behind another pitcher making his team debut, only this one is due to improve this season, not regress.

Shelby Miller will be toeing the rubber tonight for the D'backs after coming over in a trade w/ Atlanta in the offseason.  Miller had to be thrilled to be rescued from what is perhaps MLB's worst roster as last season saw him infamously post just six wins in 33 starts. Consider he started the year w/ an 8-1 team start record.  From there, as the Braves went down the toilet, it was 3-21 the rest of the way.  He got virtually no run support with Atlanta (lowest in all of MLB), which should change here w/ his new team and as long as he can adjust to the more hitter friendly Chase Field himself, expect better WL results from Miller in 2016 after he posted career bests in ERA and FIP last season.

Colorado's scoring output in yday's opener really caught be my surprise, as did Story, as the mythology of this being a great offensive team isn't really the case.  Take the Rockies out of Coors Field and they typically struggle to score runs. Last year saw them rank 29th in runs scored on the road (just one ahead of last place Atlanta) as well as 30th in OBP, 29th in slugging and 30th in OPS.   Chad Bettis will get the starting nod for them here and while he improved in 2015, his ERA was still 4.23 in 20 starts.  His numbers were better on the road, but the bottom line is that after a home team gets humiliated in the manner Arizona did last night, you expect them to bounce back the following game. 8* Arizona

10* Seattle (8:05 ET):  Mariners fans had to be thinking, "not this again" as they watched their team lose on Opening Day despite giving up just one hit - the entire ball game. That result really represents the kind of seasons that both they and the Rangers respectively had in 2015 as Texas somehow won the AL West despite a +18 run differential. Spotted an early 2-0 lead, Seattle ace Felix Hernandez was rolling along yday until the fifth inning when the Rangers were able to score three times due to a walk, a stolen base, a throwing error, a sacrifice, B2B walks, finally a hit and then another sacrifice.  It was King Felix's first ever Opening Day loss and a cruel one at that. But I still see these teams' respective fortunes as likely to change. Give me the road team (who I was on yday) again tonight.

It will be Hisashi Iwakuma starting tonight for Seattle and like Hernandez's previous track record on Opening Day, Iwakuma vs. the Rangers has been flawless.  In his last seven starts against them, four of those coming here in Arlington, Iwakuma is 6-0 w/ a 2.79 ERA.  I think that Iwakuma comes into the year undervalued due to a poor start to 2015 that was caused by injury. After spending three months on the DL w/ a lat strain, he closed out the year by going 9-4 w/ a 3.10 ERA in 17 starts.  Because of Hernandez, the Mariners have not opened a season w/ consecutive losses since 2004.  Iwakuma will clearly need more help from an offense that managed only four hits itself yday, but two of those were home runs. 

All the same issues I discussed in yday's analysis still apply a day later w/ Texas. Only this time, we won't have to be dealing w/ Cole Hamels.  Rather, it's Martin Perez, who had a 4.63 ERA and 1.446 WHIP last year.  He also had a 4-7 team start record in night games.  He had some real ugly starts, namely a 21-5 loss to the Yankees where he was pulled after allowing eight runs in the first inning.  He also was roughed up once by the Mariners as he allowed five runs in five innings of a 6-0 loss.  Again, I have major concerns about the Rangers' defense this year and I believe their offense  - as we saw yday - is due to decline, Shin Soo-Choo in particular. 10* Seattle