10* Boston College (7:30 ET):  I do not like how this game sets up from Notre Dame's perspective, at all.  For starters, the Fighting Irish are off a bit of a misleading 28-7 victory over Wake Forest last week. They were - shockingly - outgained by the Demon Deacons, 340-282, and if you take away a 98-yard TD run, that discrepancy becomes even more lopsided. The Irish, currently in position to be one of the four teams to make the College Football Playoff, have a huge game on deck next week at Stanford that will carry massive importance nationally. Can't the same here, though for underdog Boston College, this will be their "Super Bowl" as they're already eliminated from any postseason contention. With an extra week off to prepare and one of the nation's stingiest defenses, I look for the Eagles to keep this game much closer than the linesmakers are anticipating.  Take the points.

The key to this game will be the often punchless Boston College offense doing SOMETHING, anything.  The Eagles are averaging just 17.3 points per game for the season and that's the reason why they are 3-7 straight up. Remember too that average includes scoring 100 pts the first two games, both against non-FBS competition! They haven't topped 17 in any game since and during this six-game losing streak of theirs have averaged less than 10 PPG! But they also haven't lost a game by more than 17 points all season, a push against Clemson, who of course handed Notre Dame its only loss of the season. Given that game vs. Clemson was on the road while this one is likely to feature more crowd support (at Boston's famed Fenway Park), this number looks inflated to me. Notre Dame's defense is just outside of the top 40 in terms of efficiency.

The reason BC has yet to be really "blown out" this season is because of a phenomenal defense that is allowing just 14.4 points and 236 yards per game.  Those numbers rank 3rd and 1st, respectively, in the entire country.  So, it clearly won't take a ton of scoring for the Eagles to stay within this number.  Three times this season, Boston College has lost by a field goal and in every one of those games, they allowed 17 points or less.  Twice this season, they've lost a game in which they did not surrender an offensive touchdown.  That's just cruel.  Notre Dame is technically the "home team" here, but that's a bit of a silly distinction, even though the fanbase will travel well. Remember that they've had a pair of really close calls away from South Bend this season, against Virginia and Temple.  The extra week to prepare is huge for the underdog in this situation.  10* Boston College

10* USC (3:30 ET):  With four straight wins and covers, Oregon has gotten itself back into the Pac 12 Title discussion, especially following LW's 38-36 upset over Stanford as 10-point dogs. But I'm not buying a return to the "Chip Kelly days" anytime soon. Mark Helfrich's squad set off alarm bells when it was destroyed here at Autzen Stadium, 62-20 by Utah, back in September.  After that, they dropped another home game, this one as 15.5-pt chalk to Washington State. The four-game SU/ATS win streak sounds nice, but consider three of those victories were by six points or less and twice the Ducks got outgained. Their defense is nothing short of atrocious (491 YPG allowed) and incredibly, there have been three games this year where they've given up at least 500 yards and still won, last week being one of them (-14 in first downs!).  I cannot see them continuing to be that fortunate.  Take the points here. 

Call me crazy, but even w/ all the talk about the Utah's and Stanford's of the world, I still view Southern Cal as the most talented team in the entire Pac 12.   At least that's what my own power ratings say, in fact, they say the Trojans should be a favorite here in Eugene!  That makes sense when you consider USC waxed the same Utah team that waxed Oregon and their 5-2 league record looks a lot better than UO's does, statistically speaking.  The Trojans have outgained opponents this year by 80.4 yards per game while the Ducks are at just +41.5 YPG.  In conference play, USC has a +6.9 PPG differential while Oregon has been outscored.  The Trojans have been favored against every opponent this year except at Notre Dame. I expect QB Cody Kessler to have a field day here against a Ducks' defense that allowed 742 total yards to Arizona State three weeks ago. 

Though playing for an interim coach, the whole Steve Sarkisian debacle is now behind them and the Trojans can still play for a Pac 12 Championship, which would be a big deal to Kessler and the rest of these seniors who have had to deal with all the sanctions.  Oregon can win the North Division, but would need Stanford to lose at home to Cal late Saturday. In the end, neither of these teams played up to expectations this year, but at least the numbers suggest USC is better than its record. I'm not so sure about Oregon, however, and the Trojans are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS as underdogs in conference play.   USC has been outgained only once all season (Stanford) while Oregon has been outgained a total of four times. I know there are injuries on the defensive side of the ball, but I cannot believe the Trojans are getting points here.  10* USC

8* Virginia Tech (12:00 ET):  Well before it was learned that this Saturday would end up being legendary HC Frank Beamer's "swan song" in Blacksburg, you had to figure his Hokies would likely come in undervalued for the ACC Coastal tilt. That's in part because North Carolina has been on an absolute roll since dropping the season opener at South Carolina, winning nine in a row and doing so in very impressive fashion (7-2 ATS).  Also, Virginia Tech has been a pretty big disappointment this season. Many (myself included) had them pegged for the division crown, but a number of close losses (three by 7 pts or less) have derailed their season.  There was also the mid-season injury (collarbone) to QB Michael Brewer. But he's back now and so too are the Hokies. I think the linesmakers are making a major mistake not adjusting for the emotion that will be present Saturday in Blacksburg. Take the points.

Beamer is the active wins leader in FBS (278) and has taken his teams to a bowl in 22 consecutive seasons (nation's longest streak).  To keep that streak in tact, this year's team needs one more win. There's a good chance that they'll be favored next week at Virginia, who they annually dominate, but obviously the players would prefer to get the elusive sixth win here and send their coach out a winner in his final game at Lane Stadium. From a situational perspective, Va Tech has an edge here in that they last played Thursday. They came from behind to defeat Georgia Tech, on the road, 23-21 as two-point dogs and held the Yellow Jackets offense to just 258 total yards. That sound Bud Foster defense will come in handy here considering what UNC is capable of offensively. For the season, opponents are completing just 47.2 percent of all passing attempts against the Hokies.

UNC deserves kudos for its impressive season (two wks ago I took them in a 66-31 massacre of Duke), but there has been some good fortune involved. They are one of just two teams in the entire country to not have a single turnover the L3 weeks. Being +6 in TO's the L2 games has been huge.  Also, while 1st year defensive coordinator Gene Chizik has done a great job, his unit still allows 4.7 yards per play & over 400 yds per game on the road. The Tar Heels have had to play just two ACC road games thus far & both resulted in only seven-point wins.  Winning the Coastal seems pretty inevitable at this point for North Carolina (need just a win here or a Pitt loss to L'ville) and it's going to be difficult to avoid looking ahead to facing #1 Clemson, a team that the Tar Heels will absolutely be able to challenge.  Look for Hokies' RB Travon McMillian (five straight games w/ 96+ yds) to have a big day in a matchup that has "upset" written all over it. 8* Virginia Tech

8* Temple (12:00 ET):  While the respective stock of both of these teams has dipped somewhat significantly in recent weeks, let us refrain from simply "casting aside" what each has accomplished in 2015.  Memphis, who may be saying "goodbye" to HC Justin Fuente sooner rather than later, beat an Ole Miss team that beat Alabama. Up until two weeks ago, the Tigers were unbeaten and in play for a New Year's Six bowl. Three weeks ago, an unbeaten Temple team welcomed the ESPN cameras to its campus for arguably the biggest game in program history. They lost it, 24-20 to Notre Dame, but no shame there at all. Last week's 44-23 loss at USF was a little tougher to swallow, however, the key here is the Owls still have something at stake while Memphis does not. The Tigers, off B2B losses themselves, are no longer in play for the AAC Championship Game. But Temple is.

Defense will play a significant role in this matchup and that has me on the Owls. Yes, they just gave up a season-high 556 yds LW to USF and the week previous they allowed a season-high in points (40!) to SMU. But both of those games were played on the road. Here at home, their defensive numbers are significantly better. In fact, "significantly better" is probably putting it mildly as they are allowing exactly half of the number of yards per game that they do on the road. Remember that they hosted both Penn State and Notre Dame and went 2-0 ATS!  Meanwhile, the Memphis defense has been pretty leaky all season, whether we're talking home or road. There was a game (Cincinnati) where they allowed 752 yards (at home!) and still won!  There have been four times this year that they've allowed 41 or more points and while they've won three, that's simply not sustainable. For the year, the Tigers' defense is allowing 432.7 YPG.

As touched upon earlier, this game carries significant meaning for Temple. They can still win the AAC East Division by winning out. Another loss and all of a sudden they would need help from Cincinnati or UCF to make sure USF doesn't win a tiebreaker.  Meanwhile, Memphis was officially eliminated from Championship Game contention w/ last week's heartbreaking 35-34 loss at Houston. I say "heartbreaking," not only because of the result, but in the manner in which the loss occurred. The Tigers led 34-14 early in the fourth quarter before that aforementioned defense allowed three touchdown drives of six plays or longer to lose the game. That's going to be a tough one to get over and w/ nothing left to really play for, there's no real reason to. While Temple is +70 in point differential in six conference games, Memphis is only +40. Wrong team favored here. 8* Temple

8* Indiana (12:00 ET):  Nationally, this matchup of the two Big 10 East also-rans will carry little relevancy. But for Hoosiers' HC Kevin Wilson, it's likely a matter of remaining employed. This is his fifth season in Bloomington and his teams have yet to make it to a single bowl game. He's been in this position before, needing to win the final two games, but both times (2012, 2013) ultimately failed to do so. A third time and the program could very likely move in a different direction, one that includes a new head coach. Fortunately for Wilson though, the chore this year looks a whole lot easier w/ the two last place teams in the Big 10 left on the schedule.  I'm fully anticipating an outright win here, but take the points.

If you've been a regular client of mine, then you might recall that I (successfully) took IU in a pair of games early in the season. Those games, at home vs. Florida International and Western Kentucky, both resulted in ATS wins and following a 31-24 win at Wake Forest, the Hoosiers were 4-0 SU and looked to be in great position to make their first bowl since '07. But in my analysis for both of those early season plays, I cited a sense of urgency because the Big 10 slate was going to be a challenge and boy was I right. IU has yet to win a conference game this year (0-6 SU), though they have put a scare into some of the league's elite, notably Ohio State and then last week, Michigan (lost 48-41 in double OT!).  Even the game vs. Michigan State was far closer than the final score indicated. All told, four of the six losses have been one score games. The real killer, and this is one I had penciled in as a victory for them, was against Rutgers where they blew a 19-point lead and lost 55-52.  I had that and next week's home finale (vs. Purdue) as the two most likely Big 10 wins. Now, the Hoosiers must beat Maryland. They've lost a stunning 16 straight times the week before playing Purdue, but this year they simply cannot afford to look ahead to the battle for the "Old Oaken Bucket."

Fortunately for Wilson and his Hoosiers, the Terps should provide little resistance.  Like IU, Maryland has not won a single Big 10 game.  In fact, they haven't tasted victory in College Park since a 35-17 win over USF back on September 19th.  While Wilson is likely coaching for his job, Maryland already fired Randy Edsall mid-season and though the team did slightly outgain Michigan State last week (still lost 24-7), I haven't seen a whole lot to "hang my hat on" here. The Terps have no shot at a bowl, which certainly calls motivation into question, and this offense is just plain bad. Maryland quarterbacks have combined to throw 28 interceptions this season, easily the highest number in the country, and if that's not bad enough RB Wes Brown (4.8 YPC) has been suspended for allegedly assaulting a police officer.  Indiana obviously won't be lacking for motivation as they not only want to stay bowl eligible, but want revenge for a 37-15 home loss to the Terrapins last season in what was Maryland's first ever Big 10 game. 8* Indiana

10* Over Raptors/Lakers (10:35 ET):  This total looks low to me. Way too low.  Kobe Bryant has been upgraded to probable for the Lakers tonight, which is actually now a concern, as he has been the league's worst jump shooter to this point (sorry, Kobe fans, but look it up).  Still, Kobe SHOULD see his shooting numbers start to improve (at least a little bit) moving forward and the team can probably do better than 99.4 points per game. They'd gone Under six straight games before giving up 120 pts to Phoenix earlier this week and now in comes to Toronto, who prior to its last game had both scored and allowed 100+ four of its previous five games.  Take the Over.

The Raptors had been averaging 107.8 PPG over a five-game span before running into defensive-minded Utah Wednesday night.  They lost 93-89, but covered (by half a point!) for me. The good news is that Toronto has been held below 100 pts B2B games only once this season.  The even better news is that they are going up against a Lakers team that is allowing 105.5 PPG. Of course, it was Toronto's own lack of defense that cost them Wednesday against the Jazz. They gave up 34 points in the fourth quarter on 61.1 percent shooting. Their last three opponents have collectively shot 51.3 percent against them. Offensively, I can see some improvement in the cards tonight, but it must begin with a good start. No team in the league is averaging fewer points in the 1st quarter than are the Raptors (21.8). 

If you think Toronto's fourth quarter defense was bad the last time we saw them, well then I'll "raise you" the Lakers, who gave up 40 points over the final 12 minutes against Phoenix. With Bryant out of the lineup, the team actually shot better, much better in fact, a season-best 48.1 percent w/ six players scoring 10 or more points. This team, largely because of Bryant, is last in the league in overall field goal percentage. I'm really hoping that Bryant's return doesn't have the negative effect it's capable of having, but the key is Toronto's 8th ranked offensive efficiency going up against the Lakers' 27th ranked defensive efficiency anyway. Toronto is 7-1 Over the past three seasons as a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points while the Lakers are 7-3 Over the previous two seasons when playing w/ 3+ days rest. 10* Over Raptors/Lakers

10* Boise State (9:30 ET):  The Broncos are off one of the most unfathomable losses of the entire College Football season, 31-24 to New Mexico as 30.5-pt home favorites. It was the largest money line upset of the entire season and snapped a 18-game win streak for BSU on the famed blue turf.  What made the result all the more head-scratching is that the Broncos had a 641-413 edge in total yards and 40-11 edge in first downs! I'm not sure that I EVER recall a game where the loser dominated that much on the stat sheet. The Mountain West's Mountain Division is now very much a race w/ Boise State, Air Force and New Mexico all controlling their respective destinies. Moving forward, I'm still siding w/ the most "proven commodity," that being the Broncos, who should bounce back Friday in a major way. Lay the points. 

Not only are the Broncos looking to atone for LW's stunning result here, but they also take the field w/ revenge in mind for a disappointing 28-14 loss to the AFA LY (as 13-point favorites) in Colorado Springs. Once again, the final score does not tell the real story there as the Broncos outgained the Falcons 467-335 and had eight more first downs. That was Boise's ONLY MWC loss a year ago. Like last week, turnovers were again the story as the Broncos gave it away five times. That's why they never even led New Mexico LW (4 TO's) or Air Force last year. Despite this, the numbers still suggest Boise State is clearly the Mountain West's best team as they've outscored opponents this year by 187 points and are +196.7 in yards per game.  This is a team that has lost just four home games the L11 years, never two in a row. Since 2013, they are 9-1 ATS off a SU loss, the lone non-cover coming as 37-pt chalk.

Air Force was a team I expected to regress this season, off a 10-3 2014, especially after losing their starting QB to injury early on. But their run heavy approach has done an excellent job at limiting sacks (NONE given up all year!) and turnovers (none L3 games).  But that good fortune is due to come to an end in my estimation.  Save for an early season loss to Michigan State, the Falcons haven't really taken on much in the way of quality competition this year.  The defense allowed nearly 400 yds passing LW vs. Utah State and I think could be in for a long night here, trying to defend BSU's Thomas Sperbeck, who is coming off a 20 catch, 281 yard performance last week.   10* Boise State

10* Over Devils/Oilers (9:05 ET):  It was a rather "cruel" push on a 5-goal total for New Jersey their last time out on the ice as they and Calgary did all the scoring in the first two periods, yet neither could find the back of the net in the final 20 minutes, thus denying me the one last goal I needed. That was the fifth time already this season that the Devils pushed on that particular number. Tonight, I feel we get over the hump as they face an Edmonton club that has given up exactly four goals in three consecutive contest and 19 total its L5 games.  In their L10 games, the Oilers are 8-2 Over w/ only one game seeing fewer than five total goals scored. Take the Over here.

New Jersey continues to average fewer than 26 shots per game, which puts them at the bottom of the league.  Edmonton isn't a whole lot higher (28.7/game), ranking 21st.  That might lead one to believe goals will be hard to come by tonight, but not so fast.  The Oilers' overall save percentage of .890 is very low and ranks 26th in the league. Early returns on goalie Cam Talbot place him in the "disappointing" category as far as free agent signings go and a team already dealing w/ the Connor McDavid injury could be w/o two key defensemen tonight as well. The Devils finishing w/ only 20 shots on goal Wednesday was pretty unforgivable, but they should definitely get their fair share of chances tonight. 

Again, like I said in my analysis for that NJ-CGY matchup, the key here should be the Devils' opponent finding the back of the net a few times.  That actually happened Wednesday night w/ the Flames, but the Devils couldn't crack the team that came in w/ the lowest overall save percentage in the league.  This is a very similar type matchup, one where I expect New Jersey to perform better offensively, but on the defensive end they should still give up a couple even w/ Corey Schneider in net. Edmonton is a perfect 7-0 Over this season after allowing four or more goals the previous game and New Jersey is unlikely to be able to maintain its .928 save percentage from the L5 games.  10* Over Devils/Oilers

8* Boston (7:35 ET): This is another game where the spread is far too low despite the favorite's lack of history in this price range. All six of the Celtics' victories this season have been by at least 13 points and that's a margin I'm looking at for tonight's home game w/ lowly Brooklyn. Boston had a 3-game SU/ATS win streak snapped on Wednesday, losing 106-102 to Dallas, a game which they actually led by as many as 18 in the first half. A disastrous fourth quarter (outscored 36-24) should leave a bitter taste in the players' mouths and I expect a bounce back here against a Nets side that may have covered five in a row, but only has two SU wins to their credit all season.  Lay the points.

This is the front end of a home and home between the two Atlantic Division rivals. Last year, the road team took three of four meetings, but the lone home win came from the Celtics by 16 points.  Later in the season, they would win at Brooklyn by eight and 19 points. The Nets' only two wins this year came at the expense of Houston, who already fired its coach, and Atlanta (by two points). They have routinely been blown out, losing four times by double digits, and this will be their sixth time playing out on the road in the L7 games. Only three teams in the entire league - Golden State, San Antonio and Cleveland can claim a better YTD point differential than these Celtics.

As discussed in the Charlotte writeup, the Nets are off a five-point loss on Wednesday. That came on the heels of just their second win of the season, the previous night.  I feel they're still getting too much credit for taking Golden State into overtime on Sunday and while they're on a 5-0 ATS run (all as dogs) coming into tonight, remember that they opened the season 1-6 at the betting window. Turnovers could be a big deciding factor tonight as the Celtics, who play at one of the league's fastest paces, average 23.6 PPG off turnovers and 14.4 PPG on the fast break. Defensively, they're also much better than Brooklyn, giving up nearly 10 PPG fewer per 100 possessions.  8* Boston

8* Charlotte (7:05 ET):  This might seem like a LOT of points to lay w/ the Hornets, but of course the opponent is Philadelphia, who is winless and being outscored by a frightening 14.0 PPG. Two nights ago, the Sixers were destroyed on their own floor, 112-85 by Indiana. Right now, the difference between the Hornets and Pacers is fairly negligible. So even though, they only beat Brooklyn by five on Wednesday, I expect the home team to take care of business in this one. The Hornets are 4-1 SU in Charlotte so far, scoring 107 points per game, and overall they are actually sixth in the league in offensive efficiency, trailing only some of the league's real "heavyweights."  Philly is last in that department, by a considerable margin. Lay the points.

One of the reasons that the Hornets have been so efficient on offense is that they don't turn the ball over much. They give it up, on average, only 11 times per game and that's almost two per game less than every other team! Who turns the ball over the most in the league? Why, Philadelphia, of course!  The Sixers offensive efficiency has become so bad that they now average seven points less per 100 possessions than the second worst team in the league (Brooklyn).  That gap is more sizable than the difference between the #7 and #29 teams! Philly has turned the ball over a total of 58 times the last two games, including 31 on Wednesday, a league-high for any game this season. Over half of the Sixers' losses have come by 17 pts or greater and that's the kind of margin my own personal power ratings are suggesting for tonight. 

Charlotte is in the midst of a seven-game home stand that will take them through the rest of the month. They should be able to pad their record in the first several games before visits from both Cleveland and Golden State later on.  Defense will need to be better tonight than it's been recently as the Hornets have allowed 100+ in three of the last four games.  But, as already discussed, Philaelphia is the worst offensive team in the league right now. They have not scored more than 86 pts in any of their L4 games and been held below 90 in five of the last six. Look for the Hornets to roll.  8* Charlotte

8* East Tennessee State (7:00 ET):  I'm going to step out in front of the Villanova train yet again here as a 48-20 ATS mark the last two-plus seasons certainly is due to regress back to the mean, right? Last season alone, the Wildcats went 25-10 at the betting window and thus far in 2015, they haven't been messing around w/ wins over Farleigh Dickinson (non-lined game) and Nebraska coming by 37 and 24 points, respectively,  I went against them Tuesday vs. the Cornhuskers and after a great start (for me), it wasn't very pleasant to watch. A seven-point deficit quickly turned into a double-digit lead by halftime for the Wildcats, thanks to a 22-0 run. Are you kidding? I still think that the linesmakers catch up w/ Jay Wright's team though.  Take the points. 

Bad shooting by opponents has really helped 'Nova in the first two games, not that they needed it. But it should be pointed out that FDU and Nebraska were both ice cold from the field for the most part, shooting 27% and 37.7%, respectively. Enter East Tennessee State, a team that has topped 100 pts in each of its first two games, albeit against far weaker competition than they'll face here.  But still, a team that can put the ball in the hoop that much is certainly worthy of a shot, taking this many points. The Buccaneers are off a 103-90 win over Wisconsin-Green Bay (game was at 6 AM ET), very much a "real" opponent (as opposed to Division III Averett, whom they blew out in the season opener), as the Phoenix had just taken Stanford to OT in its first game.  So, don't discount the underdog here. They won't be intimidated.

ETSU may not be known nationally, but I think they could be a real surprise for first year HC Steve Forbes thanks to a number of key transfers. The Buccaneers are not the favorites to win the Southern Conference (Chattanooga is), but they're certainly a contender.  Five players scored in double figures Tuesday morning and the team has been above 50 percent shooting in both games. This will be Villanova's toughest test to date. The Wildcats benefited greatly from turnovers against Nebraska w/ 22 of them being converted into 33 points. But E Tennessee St has just 22 TO's in two games.  They also are shooting 85% from the free throw line while leading the nation in total # of attempts! 8* East Tennessee State

10* LA Monroe (9:30 ET):  I had the misfortune of playing not just one, but both, of these teams last week and the results were nothing short of disastrous. LA Monroe lost 59-21 at home to Arkansas State (5 TO's) while Texas State also was a loser "on campus," 41-19 to Georgia Southern. In the case of the former, it ended up costing now former Warhawks HC Todd Berry his job as he was fired and defensive line coach John Mumford will finish out the year (still three games) in charge on an interim basis. With the latter, one could make the argument that the loss Texas State suffered was even more crushing as it ensured they could not become bowl eligible, something that the program was really "pinning its hopes" on coming into the season. In a battle of two bad teams, taking the points is the way to go.

In fact, Texas State has been the favorite for each of its last two games and has failed to cover by an incredible 40 points! Two weeks ago, they lost here in San Marcos to a New Mexico State squad that had been winless as of its previous game.  They allowed the Aggies to gain 527 yards in that contest.  Last week, the defensive performance was even worse as Georgia State gained 643 total yards and scored 41 points. Keep in mind that Georgia State team had lost 39 of its previous 43 games and has just one road win all-time at the FBS level! In retrospect, it's now pretty hard to believe that this Texas State team came into the season w/ legitimate bowl aspirations. The Bobcats did go 7-5 and 6-6 SU the last two years (not selected for a bowl either time though), but clearly have taken a step back in 2015.

LA Monroe has the slightly better defense here, but it's almost by default as TSU gives up 41.6 points and 560 yards per game. The offensive edge probably goes to the home team, but the visitors should be scoring more as they average only 19.2 yards per point, well above the national average. As I explained yday w/ Kent State, that's a sign that more scoring should (theoretically) be on its way. Against an awful Bobcats defense, I would anticipate the Warhawks to have their best offensive game of the season and they should play hard following the coaching change.  10* LA Monroe

10* Tennessee (8:25 ET):  This is the second week in a row that the so-called "smart (early) money"  has backed the dog in the Thursday night matchup. Last week, my own personal power ratings disagreed with the move and I got burnt as the Jets (despite allowing only one offensive TD & finishing w/ a 318-280 edge in total yds) lost outright to the Bills, 22-17.  This week, it's a different story however, as my power ratings support the line move on Tennessee, who will be looking to erase an ugly recent history vs. division rival Jacksonville (1-6 ATS L7 meetings).  Laying points w/ the Jaguars just does not seem like a good idea in my estimation; they've been asked to do so only one other time this year and the result was an outright loss to Houston. This is just the third time they've been favored during the tenure of HC Gus Bradley.  Take the points.

Then you have the fact that the Jags are off the phoniest of wins, a 22-20 decision in Baltimore that was only made possible due to an untimed down thanks to a Ravens' facemask penalty on the final play of regulation (game can't end on a defensive penalty). Despite that egregious gaffe by the Ravens, Jacksonville still shouldn't have even been allowed to kick the FG as there was a false start on fourth down that wasn't called, which would have otherwise ended the game. The NFL later admitted its mistake, but nevertheless the Jags won despite being outgained significantly (397-258), thanks in large part to four Baltimore turnovers and one terrible penalty.  But further illustrating how laying points w/ Jacksonville would be a bad idea, all three of their wins this season have been by three points or less!

Tennessee has been a "tougher out" than most people realize. They were actually only seven points back of Carolina last week, in the fourth quarter, before falling apart late.  The team has lost three times this year by a FG or less. Defensively, they've been pretty solid (23.8 PPG), which is better than the Jaguars (28.3 PPG). Twice the Titans have lost a game this year in which the defense allowed 14 or fewer points. Thankfully, rookie Marcus Mariota is now back and he is the only QB in the league - besides Tom Brady - to have multiple games w/ 4 TD passes this year. He makes his offense a lot more potent and I think the Titans have a great shot at taking this game outright. Again, take the points though. 10* Tennessee

10* Cleveland (8:05 ET):  While LeBron James may still be having "nightmares" over what happened in June against the Golden State, November can't exactly have him and the Cavaliers sleeping well either as they've gone a bankroll busting 0-8 against the spread this month, including a couple of outright losses, one to Detroit on Tuesday and the other to Milwaukee on Saturday. They'll get a chance to avenge the latter tonight, and after publicly being called out by James, the team should be more than ready. It was a double overtime loss to the Bucks on Saturday where the Cavs shot only 40.7 percent from the field.  Being back at home, where they're unbeaten, LeBron and company should gain revenge. Lay the points.

It was a disastrous finish to the game Tuesday for Cleveland as they blew a lead they'd held for much of the game, late. They led by eight with just over seven minutes to go, but then went incredibly cold, scoring just one more basket (a James' layup w/ 15 seconds remaining) the rest of the way. Intentionally fouling the Pistons' Andre Drummond backfired as the 40 percent FT shooter made four of five from the line down the stretch.  The Cavs' own FT woes have really hurt them this season as they're shooting just 68.7 percent from the charity stripe, which is downright unforgivable for a supposed title contender. The good news is that the FT percentage goes up to a more respectable 74.4 percent here at home. The fact that opposing teams have shot 77.2 percent from the line hasn't helped the Cavaliers either.

Milwaukee had started to show signs of a turnaround, but then got blasted Tuesday night in Washington, losing 115-86 to the Wizards. It was the third time this season that the Bucks allowed that many points, though two of those have come against the Wiz. Still though, Cleveland is more than capable of putting up a big point total here tonight. It's highly likely that the players not named "LeBron" or "Kevin Love" will do better than the collective 34.8 percent shooting they put forth in the first meeting w/ Milwaukee. This Bucks team has lost four times by 16 or more points already this season.  10* Cleveland

8* Puck Line Arizona (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Coyotes +1.5.  Montreal rebounded nicely from its first regulation loss of the season on Monday w/ a 4-3 win over Vancouver in OT. I was on the Habs there, but you have to start wondering if its about time for some luck to start going against them. We already know they are w/o reigning Vezina winner Carey Price for the near future and while the team's overall numbers still look impressive, they've clearly started to slow down as their #1 goaltender sits. They'd lost two in a row (first time all season) prior to beating the Canucks and a one-goal win (or worse) is certainly a distinct possibility tonight. 

Arizona has lost two in a row, at Columbus and at the Islanders, both by identical 5-2 scores. That's not a good sign nor is the fact the team has the 30th (i.e. worst) ranked power play in the entire league.  But something could be "in the air" here as like the Canadiens, the 'Yotes simply haven't played a lot of overtime games this season. Like Montreal, all but one of their wins have come in regulation this year.  They've also lost three times by exactly one goal. To win here, or just stay within a goal, Arizona needs better goaltending. Fortunately, Mike Smith has solid career numbers against Montreal w/ a 2.06 goals against average and .932 save percentage. 

Speaking of goaltending, the initial play of backup Mike Condon had been a major bonus for the Canadiens in the wake of the Price injury.  However, lately, we've started to see clear signs of regression. Condon has posted a 3.56 GAA and .859 save percentage the L3 games and will now be making his ninth consecutive start. He's been the primary reason that the team has fallen behind in each of the last four games, including 3-0 to Vancouver.  The Habs were lucky to be able to climb out of that hole, but it's a dangerous precedent to set when you're allowing an average of 3.0 goals in the first period over a three-game stretch. Montreal had also been outshot in 8 of its first 12 games this season. I wouldn't be shocked if we got a surprise result here tonight. It won't be any worse than a one goal game. 8* Puck Line Arizona (+1.5)

8* Under Avalanche/Penguins (7:05 ET): Pittsburgh has been okay this season (11-7), but the major surprise has been them ranking in the bottom five in the league in goals per game. Currently, they're 27th overall at 2.2 gpg, even though they are coming off a 4-3 win over Minnesota here at home on Tuesday. Therefore, as you might have guessed, the goaltending has been solid as only three teams are giving up fewer goals per game than are the Pens. That's despite allowing seven in the last two games, by the way. Tonight, in comes an opponent that's played to two very different results its last two games (both high scoring though) and my expectation here is for a low-scoring affair.  Take the Under.

Colorado got its current seven-game road trip off to a fabulous start w/ three straight wins, including 6-1 at Montreal on Saturday. However, things took a turn for the worse w/ an ugly 5-1 loss to Toronto on Tuesday. Perhaps we all should have seen that one coming though as in the win over Montreal, the Avs were outshot 40-24, so it has to be considered a "minor miracle" that they scored as many times as they did there. It truly was an awful performance against the Maple Leafs, particularly in net from Reto Berra, but HC Patrick Roy should have his netminder ready to go here.  Berra had previously stopped 89 of the last 92 shots he'd faced and comes in w/ a 1.86 goals against average his L5 starts. 

It's also highly unlikely that Colorado will be giving up FOUR power play goals again like they did in Toronto. Pittsburgh's PP has been a source of concern all season and currently ranks 27th in the league at 14.3 percent.  In fact, none of the five goals the Avalanche allowed Tuesday came at even strength as they gave up one while on the PP themselves, something that should never happen and certainly isn't likely to repeat itself in B2B games. Remember that the Penguins were barely averaging 2.0 goals their first 17 games. Pens goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury (.929 save percentage) should take care of the Avalanche offense in this one. Colorado is 5-2 Under this season, on the road, when the total is 5.5.  Pittsburgh is 4-0 Under at home when the total is 5.5!  8* Under Avalanche/Penguins

10* Rutgers (7:00 ET): I wouldn't be too confident laying points w/ St. Johns in their first real test under 1st year HC Chris Mullin (yes, the alum & former NBA great). It has been somewhat of a tumultuous last month for the Red Storm as a number of players that were expected to be key contributors this season have been ruled ineligible. The most notable is Marcus LoVett, a much hyped freshman that many thought would quickly evolve into the team's best player.  Two other players, Felix Balamou (a senior) and Kassoum Yakwe (another freshman), also aren't going to be playing. Suffice to say, it remains to be seen just how good of a head coach Mullin can be (has never previously served in such a capacity) and with a roster made up almost entirely of new faces (90 percent of last year's scoring gone!), I think the immediate future looks rather grim.

The Johnnies' are 2-0 SU, but wins over Wagner and MD-Baltimore County certainly shouldn't impress anyone, especially considering it was a three-point game vs. Wagner in the final 90 seconds!  Also, the Red Storm lost an exhibition game - to a Division II school (St. Thomas Aquinas) - by 32 points! Things looked a little better on Monday against MD-Baltimore County, but that too was a three-point game in the second half.  In the two regular seasons games so far, St. John's has turned the ball over on a whopping 23% of its total possessions. Depth is a major concern in both the front and back courts. So far, the Red Storm have been lucky in that neither of their first two opponents could hit water from a boat, but a Rutgers squad that's shooting 46.6% from the floor can. 

While St. John's prized recruit is being forced to watch games from the bench, the first real top recruit of the Eddie Jordan era at Rutgers was a key contributor in the Scarlet Knights' 82-70 win over Howard on Sunday. Corey Sanders led the way w/ 15 points in his debut after being forced to sit out the opener due to his own eligibility issue.  This is another young team, but at least it's one now filled w/ Jordan's recruits as opposed to those of his predecessor Mike Rice. Three-point shooting has been the major issue for the Scarlet Knights thus far, but they're getting open looks and I expect some of those shots to start going down. Take the points here.  10* Rutgers

8* Toronto (9:05 ET):  Again, it's a team playing w/o rest being undervalued by the linesmakers. The Raptors refused to "play ball" w/ me last night, staying inside the number at Golden State.  For the record, Toronto was trailing by 16 at halftime. But they did manage to trim the deficit all the way down to a single point in the fourth quarter. While that result may not have been to my liking, it won't stop me from turning around and backing the Raptors as underdogs tonight as they visit a Utah team coming off a four-game East Coast swing. The Jazz split the four games straight up (3-1 ATS), last winning for me, 97-96 (as three-point pups) in Atlanta Sunday evening.  While 7-3 ATS and one of the top defensive teams in the league, I'm not convinced that they should be favored by this many against a team the caliber of Toronto. Take the points.

This will only be Utah's third home game of the season, so that does speak well to the already impressive looking start to the season. But it comes in a tough spot as they will be hitting the road again Friday for a tilt w/ the Dallas Mavericks.  I'm not sure this non-conference matchup will hold their attention quite as much.  This is also only the third time the Jazz have been asked to lay more than three points at the betting window. The previous two instances came against league-worst Philadelphia (covered) and Portland, who beat them outright here in Salt Lake City. The issue right now w/ Utah being favored is that they don't score a ton of points. Currently, they are averaging only 95.5 per game.  There's also the issue of two starters, Rodney Hood & Rudy Gobert, battling injuries.

The Raptors have won and covered all four meetings vs. the Jazz the past two seasons and done so in dominating fashion, winning by an average margin of 19 points per contest.   They were favored last year here in Utah and won by 19.  They too can play some defense, having held six of their first seven opponents under triple digits.  Unfortunately, they've allowed 100+ in four of their last five, but playing Golden State will do that to you.  The other occasions were far less excusable, but I like the fact this team is 2-0 SU/ATS in the second night of back to backs this season.  8* Toronto

8* New Mexico (9:00 ET):  First off, best wishes go to Lobos' reserve forward Devon Williams, who collapsed in the team's 83-74 win at in-state rival New Mexico State on Sunday. Williams suffered what is being called a cervical spinal bruise and obviously is out of the lineup for the near future, but by all accounts will be fine. Undoubtedly, playing for their injured teammate tonight, I really like UNM to roll against Loyola-IL, who is forced to make the cross-country trip as part of the now-annual Mountain West vs. Missouri Valley challenge, an event you may or may not be aware of.  The MWC has dominated previously (24-15 SU) and I expect the Lobos to keep that trend alive tonight in "The Pit," which has always been a difficult place for the visitor to win.

New Mexico is "just" 24-7 SU on its home floor since the start of the 2013-14 season, including an 86-57 win over Texas Southern in this year's opener. They were able to put up that many points (admittedly against an overmatched foe) despite missing 12 of 17 three-pointers.  They weren't any more efficient from behind the arc against New Mexico State, yet still scored 80+ in that one as well. Just imagine how many they would have scored had they been better from distance! I like what I've seen from the Lobos' starting backcourt - Cullen Neal and Elijah Brown - thus far.  The latter scored 31 pts Sunday night and as a duo, they're averaging 43.5 points per game. Look out for big man Sam Longwood, despite a slow start to the season, as well. 

New Mexico has yet to lose to a Missouri Valley team in the history of this event.  Loyola is a relative newcomer to the MVC, having joined back in 2013 after spending time in the Horizon League.  They were somewhat of a pointspread juggernaut last season, covering 67 percent of their games, including an incredible 11-2 ATS mark on the road and winning the CBI Tournament.  However, I don't see them faring too well in Albuquerque where almost all of those seven UNM home losses I spoke of earlier occurred during last year's very disappointing finish to conference play. Little can be derived from the Ramblers' first two games of the season due to the poor quality of competition, but they did fail to cover at home against UTSA.  8* New Mexico

8* Denver (8:35 ET): For years, I've pointed to the fact that teams playing in the second night of a back to back are generally undervalued and that's what we have here as the Nuggets, fresh off a win last night, take the court in San Antonio.  As a generous six-point dog, Denver downed New Orleans on Tuesday, 115-98 as the struggling Pelicans lost Anthony Davis to an injury in the first quarter.  It would be easy to simply "write off" the Nuggets victory as a byproduct of that injury, but they were actually outplaying the Pelicans when Davis was on the floor. That was Denver's fourth win in its last five games, surprising, considering where most though this team would be at the start of the year. I've got no problem grabbing the big number here though.

San Antonio, as expected, is one of the league's two best teams (only Golden State rated higher).  Their only loss since Opening Night (at full-strength Oklahoma City) came on a buzzer-beater at Washington.  Since then, they've won five straight, all by nine or more points.  In four home games this season, they're holding the opposition to an average of just 83 points per game!  That said, they just got done playing Portland and Philadelphia, two of the worst teams in the entire league.  Denver isn't likely to become a playoff team "overnight," but they should at least give the Spurs a better fight than past opponents have.  Also, the Spurs' offense has struggled shooting the ball those L2 games, connecting on only 40.8 percent of their attempts from the field.

The Nuggets lost all four meetings to the Spurs last season and are 0-7 SU against them the past two seasons. But double digits is a lot to lay in today's NBA and Denver has gone 5-3 ATS when taking 12.5 or more points since the start of last season.  Earlier this season, they covered at Golden State.  This will be the fourth time so far that the Spurs have been asked to lay 12 or more pts and while they've gone 2-1 ATS, those previous three instances were all against teams weaker than the Nuggets.  San Antonio is just 15-16 ATS after allowing 85 pts or less in its previous game.  8* Denver

10* Atlanta (8:05 ET):  What am I missing here?  Why is this line so low?  You're telling me that the Hawks are now perceived to be basically even w/ the Kings on a neutral floor?  That's what this line is saying.  My own personal power ratings have Atlanta favored by significantly more, even w/o starters Jeff Teague and Kent Bazemore in the lineup.  Granted, the Hawks aren't exactly "flying high" right now (three-game losing streak), but they should certainly be hungry after suffering an embarrassing defeat last night in Brooklyn (5th straight ATS loss). They've won 14 straight over Sacramento (league's longest active head to head win streak!) while covering the last four and the result should be no different here. Lay the points.

About a week ago, the Kings held one of those "players-only" meetings as they seemed to be on the verge of implosion w/ star player DeMarcus Cousins and HC George Karl butting heads. The aftermath of that meeting has seen the team win three straight, so some of the more foolish "talking heads" will probably want to label this as some sort of "turnaround."  I don't; rather it just points to the fact the team had been underachieving previously. Also, all three wins came at home where Sacramento typically plays a lot better. This team is just 22-62 SU on the road the last 2+ seasons and this year finds itself allowing a frightening 116 PPG away from home.  Granted, that's just two games, but it also speaks volumes that the Kings' overall record isn't better considering they've played 9 of 11 games at home. The last two were both close calls as well. Sunday night, they trailed Toronto heading into the fourth quarter. Coming off a SU win as a dog, the Kings are a woeful 9-21 ATS.

Atlanta has been struggling its last five games, but the last two have been losses by a combined three points. Last night in Brooklyn, they held the biggest lead of the game (8 pts), but managed to lose a back and forth affair due to a season-high 20 turnovers. You can obviously point to the absence of Teague for that happening, but really it's just overall carelessness, something I expect to be corrected here. Playing back to back nights hasn't bothered the Hawks so far this season as they've gone 3-0 SU in that situation. 10* Atlanta

10* Washington (8:05 ET):  I think that everything sets up beautifully here for the Capitals.  Sure, they are off a loss, 3-2 to Calgary.  But that was five days ago and thus they've had plenty of time to "get over it."  They should certainly be eager to take the ice, considering this is a revenge spot for their only other defeat over the L5 games, a brutal 1-0 decision at the hands of these Red Wings.  That was a game that the Caps had a 38-27 edge in shots on goal.  As I've mentioned before, lacking in shots is nothing new for Detroit, who comes in ranked next to last in # of shots per game in the entire league (25.9), just barely ahead of New Jersey. While Washington is a top five team in the league right now, Detroit is lucky to even be .500. 

The Capitals are one of just five teams with a double digit positive goal differential (+13).  Three of the other four are in first place in their respective divisions; the Caps simply have the misfortune of being in the Metro alongside the hottest team in the league right now, the Rangers.   Friday's loss to Calgary for Ovechkin and company came in overtime and it was their third game in four nights, so it wasn't a particularly great spot. Still though, they did manage to outshoot the Flames 36-29 and there have been only three instances so far this season where Washington has been outshot by its opponent.  Two of those times came in the first three games. Since then, they've pretty much been controlling the puck (3rd in Corsi & Fenwick) and more "traditional" stats like this team as well. They rank top seven in both goals scored and allowed as well as on the power play & penalty kill.

The main problem lately for the Caps is that Ovi has gone three consecutive games w/o scoring, perhaps pressing as he attempts to break Sergei Fedorov's all-time record for most goals scored by a Russian-born player.  I would not be surprised at all to see him get the record tonight as the Red Wings (Fedorov's team) have given up exactly three goals in three straight games.  Monday's win in Ottawa was Detroit's highest scoring game (four goals) since another road win over the Senators back on Halloween. In the six games in between, the Wings scored just nine goals total.  Braden Holtby will be back between the pipes for the Caps tonight and has a 1.49 GAA his L4 starts. He's allowed just three goals on 90 shots his L3 starts vs. Detroit.  10* Washington

8* Kent State (8:00 ET):  Central Michigan is 5-5 SU and a win away from bowl eligibility, something that should be considered somewhat of a minor miracle given the state of the program back on Signing Day when the did not even have a head coach! Former HC Dan Enos bolted from Mount Pleasant to take an offensive coordinator job at Arkansas, which should tell you all you need to know about CMU right there. But his replacement, John Bonamego (an alum), has done quite the admirable job guiding what has been an undervalued Chippewas team to one of the best spread marks in the entire country at 8-2 ATS. However, here, they are being asked to lay double digits for the first time to an FBS foe and I feel that makes them overvalued for the first time all year. Take the points.

Taking a look at Kent State's recent results, there's not a whole lot to be impressed with. They've lost three in a row, getting shut out twice in the process, including 27-0 last Tuesday at Ohio (I correctly went against them!).  The Golden Flashes were outgained 447-191 in that one, but I am expecting a far better performance here in their final home game of 2015. These teams have not met since 2011 when Kent State pulled off what could be termed a "minor upset," 24-21. The Flashes have a strong recent history of quality performances in their final home game of the season, winning five straight, including an upset of rival Akron last season. Twice they've been a dog in the final home game and both times won outright!  This is a team that "should have" won two weeks ago, but blew a 17-6 fourth quarter lead against Buffalo. That was their third loss this year by 7 or fewer points, the other two coming against Minnesota & Marshall.

With a home game next week vs. Eastern Michigan, bowl eligibility is basically a formality for Central Michigan at this point.  But I look at this as a "flat spot" for them. They are off a hard-fought 28-23 home loss to Toledo last week where they battled back from an early 21-0 deficit only to come up short. The defense allowed nearly 500 total yards in that contest. All of the Chips' big wins this season (upset of Northern Illinois, 51-14 beatdown of Buffalo) have taken place at home. Their only two road wins of the season, over Akron and Ball State, have come by a total of 10 points. They trailed big at Western Michigan before a late rally got things close (sound familiar?). I think the underdog shows up to play here.  8* Kent State

10* Over Central Michigan/Kent State (8:00 ET):  Unders have become commonplace for both of these programs this season. Central Michigan has stayed Under the total in seven of its 10 games this year, including each of its last three. Kent State has been even more friendly to Under bettors recently (six straight Unders!) and their O/U mark is the same (3-7) for the season.  The recent low scores, on both sides, have led to a very low number this week, one that is in fact the lowest for either all season.  In the case of CMU, it is easily their lowest total of the season to date. While Kent State has been shut out in two of its last three games, I feel that the value here is on the Over. Look for this game to sneak past the total.

There have been only three instances all season where 40 or less total points were scored in a game involving Central Michigan.  Two of those came against Oklahoma State and Michigan State, obviously two of the very best teams in the entire country. Needless to say, Kent State does not have the kind of defense either of those two powers bring to the table and likely will not be holding CMU to 13 or fewer points.  The Chippewas' lowest scoring game of the year came on Halloween, a 14-6 win over Akron, an unusual game where both teams were held below 300 total yards. For the season, CMU is averaging nearly 400 yds of offense per game, a pretty solid number. In conference play, they've been held below that benchmark only two times. Defensively, last week the Chips surrendered almost 500 total yds to Toledo. 

Kent State's is the offense we will need to "show up to play" tonight.  As mentioned previously, the Golden Flashes have been shut out in two of their previous three contests.  Over the L5 games, incredibly, they have scored only 39 total points! They've scored 20 or more only twice versus FBS competition, which is a tad bit frightening, but tonight I'll call for their highest scoring game of the season in MAC play.  How can I make such a claim? Well, despite their poor overall numbers on offense, they should be scoring more. They average 20 yards per point, one of the worst marks in the entire nation (would have been 2nd worst in FBS last year), which is a signal that more points should be forthcoming.  The nationwide average is roughly 14 yards per point.  10* Over Central Michigan/Kent State

10* Golden State (10:35 ET):  The Warriors laying single digits at home?  Thank you linesmakers! Honestly, unless they're playing San Antonio, there isn't a single team (maybe Cleveland?) that the defending champs shouldn't be laying at least 10 to here at Oracle Arena. Toronto, after starting the season a perfect 5-0 straight up/against the spread, has just two wins in its last six games and those came at the expense of two teams (New Orleans, Philadelphia) that are a combined 1-20 SU right now.  They just lost outright in Sacramento Sunday night, an ominous sign as they embark on a five-game West Coast swing. Consider that last year the Dubs beat the Raptors twice by 20+ points.  Lay the number.

As you know, Golden State is off to a perfect 11-0 start.  They have failed to cover the spread only four times, three of which came as favorites of -14 or higher. The other was a game vs. the rival Clippers.  Strangely, their closest call of the season came last time out, against Brooklyn of all teams.  Despite shooting only 41.9 percent from the field, the Nets somehow took the Warriors into overtime before eventually losing 107-99.  Really, it all boiled down to Brooklyn jumping out to a 36-21 lead after one quarter.  But as simple math will tell you, the Warriors outscored the Nets by 23 the rest of the way and their YTD point differential remains at +16.3 points per game.  So, again, laying single digits here seems like a really nice value.

Toronto hasn't exactly been taking on the best of the best these last six games and yet has produced a losing record.  They've lost at both Orlando and Sacramento, two teams that weren't even in playoff contention in year ago and also got blown out (by 20) at Miami.  They allowed the Kings to shoot 51.3% Sunday, a season-high for an opponent, and got outscored 16-2 to end the game.  I suppose one could turn that around and point out the Raptors easily could have won, but the fact they lost despite shooting 15 of 33 from three-point range is a BAD sign, especially when getting set to "step up" in competition like they are here.  I think that Golden State's close call vs. the Nets has driven this line down way too far and, oh by the way, the Warriors are 17-5 ATS the L3 seasons when taking the court w/ exactly two days rest. 10* Golden State

10* Over Devils/Flames (9:05 ET): Little was expected from New Jersey this season, but right now this team has established itself as a player in the Metropolitan Division by winning eight of its last 11 games, including B2B wins over Chicago and Pittsburgh coming into tonight. The key, not surprisingly, has been goaltender Corey Schneider, thought to be the team's one real strength coming into 2015-16.  Schneider just turned in a 21-save shutout Saturday against the Penguins and now has a .929 save percentage, which is right in line w/ his career mark. One could argue that the Devils look like an excellent value tonight, but after winning B2B games three times since October 22nd, they have lost the next time out every time. Thus, I'm on the total here and it may surprise you which way I'm going.  Take the Over. 

The Devils are a team that will rarely see a 5.5-goal total posted for one of their games. In fact, we've seen two 4.5's posted in their last five games. Note that three of those games saw at least five total goals scored and Saturday was a 4-0 win, the third time in that same stretch that New Jersey has scored that many times.  Offense should not prove difficult to come by tonight as Calgary is dead last in the league in goals allowed (3.7 per game) having given up four or more an astounding 12 times already this season.  One of those came Sunday, a 4-1 loss at Chicago where they allowed 41 shots on net.  The Over is 6-2 in Calgary home games this season and 17-10 the previous three seasons when the total is 5 or less.

Goaltending may not be a concern for the Devils, but it is for the Flames.  Not a single goaltender on the Calgary roster currently has a save percentage above .900, which is just terrible.  Karri Ramo is the one most likely to be in between the pipes tonight and he has an .898 save percentage for the year w/ 35 goals allowed in 11 starts.  Clearly, we are going to need SOMETHING from the Flames offense here and fortunately we can lean on the fact they haven't gone B2B games w/o scoring 3+ goals this month.  So, following the 4-1 loss to the Blackhawks, they should find the back of the net a few times here as well.  10* Over Devils/Flames

10* Nebraska (8:30 ET): Though it ended earlier (as per usual) than expected (lost in Rd of 32), #11 Villanova had quite the season last year. Jay Wright's Wildcats went a full two months w/o losing a game at one point and finished 25-10 against the spread, for one of the best marks vs. the number in the entire country. In fact, 'Nova is now 47-20 ATS the last two seasons, which is well over 67 percent and thus pretty unsustainable moving forward.  This year's team lost three key pieces from the squad that finished 33-3 SU last year and though a 91-54 win over Farleigh Dickenson in the opener looks nice, all that's done is further drive up the number as the Wildcats get set to face their first "real" opponent of the season, that being Nebraska. The Cornhuskers scored nearly 100 pts in their opener & I'm taking the points.

Villanova should once again rule the Big East this season.  But I do expect them to struggle a bit more than expected versus the non-conference slate.  This year's team is smaller and lost two of LY's best players (Darrun Hillard and JayVaughn Pinkston) to graduation and another key contributor (Dylan Ennis) transferred to Oregon. Last year's Wildcats were remarkably fortunate on the health front w/ virtually no time lost to injury. While it was a solid all-around performance Friday, I wouldn't put a ton of stock in that result as FDU shot an abysmal 27 percent from the floor.  Considering Nebraska shot 10 of 22 from three-point range in its opening game, I do not expect them to struggle as much against the zone defense.

It was a 97-51 win over Mississippi Valley State for Nebraska in its season opener, the program's highest scoring game in nearly a decade.  While the Cornhuskers are coming off a losing campaign in 2014-15 and saw their leading scorer depart for the NBA, there is still reason for optimism in Lincoln. HC Tim Miles brought in a key transfer from Kansas, Andrew White III, who led the way w/ 18 points on Saturday. This team has the necessary size and length to bother Villanova offensively.   Look for the underdog to come out and give the favorite all it can handle Tuesday night. 10* Nebraska

6* Nashville (8:05 ET):  As I've previously written, Anaheim's early season struggles are not that big of a surprise to me as last year's incredible "puck luck" indicated that regression was probably on its way for 2015-16.  Just to rehash, the Ducks had a phenomenal record in one-goal games a year ago, so while they finished w/ 109 points (tied for tops in the West), they had a goal differential of only +10, which was the lowest among ALL playoff teams. This year, to put it mildly, they are struggling to score w/ their 1.8 goals per game average ranking dead last in the league.  That's a problematic number to begin with, but when facing an opponent that has twice scored 7 goals in its last three games, it becomes a nightmare matchup. I'm riding w/ Nashville in this one.

The Predators just blanked the Jets, 7-0, here at home Saturday night and are off to an impressive 10-3-3 start overall. They rank in the top seven in the league in both goals scored and allowed. Possession numbers are great and advanced metrics, such as Corsi and Fenwick, really like this team as they rank #5 and #2 in the league in those two respective categories.  This being a fourth consecutive home game w/ two days rest means there's no situational issues to be concerned about. In four of the past six games, the Preds have outshot their opponent by a double digit margin. It was a 34-20 edge vs. Winnipeg Saturday night as they jumped out to a 4-0 lead in the first period, improving to 9-1-1 this season when scoring first. 

All that's keeping the Ducks afloat right now is the league's top PK unit (90.5 percent).  They killed off all three power plays they faced last night in a 4-1 win over lowly Carolina, a fortunate result given that they had only 20 shots on goal for the entire game.  The team had lost three in a row previously, all at home, and playing here in the second night of a back to back does them no favors, in my opinion. On the road this season, Anaheim is averaging just 23.2 shots per game and has been shut out four different times. This is a revenge spot for the Preds, who lost 4-2 in Anaheim back on the first of the month (despite a 42-28 edge in shots). This time will be different, however, as Pekka Rinne will be between the pipes. He has a 1.94 goals against average in 11 home starts against Anaheim.  6* Nashville

8* Miami (7:35 ET): Quietly, the Heat have morphed back into a top ten team in this league. At least that's what my own personal power ratings say as only Cleveland is better in the Eastern Conference and just a handful of teams from the West can say the same. The key has been defense. No team is allowing fewer points per game (90.2) right now and that's been the driving force behind the fact they have gone Under in eight consecutive games. Only once has Miami allowed 100+ in a game this season and that was 102 to Cleveland.  They've won three in a row, allowing 76, 88 and 91 points respectively and I really like their chances of "putting the clamps down" on a young Minnesota team that has lost four in a row, here tonight. Lay the points.

The T'wolves have been a bit of a surprise thus far, especially being a perfect 5-0 against the spread on the road.  They'd actually won each of their first four games away from home, all as the underdog, before bowing out to Indiana last week, 107-103 (still covered at +7.5).  However, we're starting to see clear signs of regression, most notably on the defensive end where they've allowed 112.2 PPG their last five contests.  On the offensive end of the floor, I do not anticipate them continuing to maintain their current scoring average of 103.1 PPG.  Consider that Minnesota's lowest scoring game of the season (84 points) came against this Miami squad, back on November 5th.  The spread for that game was 4 points, so w/ the Heat winning by 12 there, it's rather curious that the line isn't higher here, factoring in the change in venues.

Both Dwyane Wade and Gerald Green should be back in the lineup tonight for Miami, so the team should be even stronger than it's been of late. Meanwhile, Minnesota looks to again be w/o starting PG Ricky Rubio for a fifth straight game and they've yet to win with him out of the lineup.  Considering the T'wolves just allowed the Grizzlies to shoot better than 56 percent from the floor on Sunday, the Heat should have no problem scoring in this one.  Honestly, I cannot believe this line isn't double digits, which is where I expected it to be.  8* Miami

8* Duke (7:30 ET): We certainly didn't have to wait long for a Top 5 matchup this College Basketball season, did we?  This is a battle of LY's actual National Champ (Duke) vs. the team that was "supposed" to win it (Kentucky) and while Coach K's most ardent followers might like to imagine a world where his program resembles some "purer form" of the sport compared to John Calipari's Kentucky teams, that's simply not the case. In fact, one could argue that the Blue Devils are now doing a better job of taking advantage of the so-called "one and done" rule than UK.  Loaded recruiting classes have these two again poised to compete for the national championship.  My take here though is that while Kentucky is almost automatically favored every time out, Duke has passed them and is the better team getting points here.

In fact, the Blue Devils are an impressive 7-1 against the spread when taking points the past two seasons. They have won six of those games outright and in taking them here, you have to assume a cover = outright win. Now Duke certainly was not an underdog in either of its first two games this year, wins over Bryant and Siena by a combined 56 points where they've topped 90 pts both times.  Might the Blue Devils be getting a break defensively in this one, however? So far, they have allowed 47.6% shooting from three-point range, but Kentucky has struggled from distance at only 28.9%.  That's a far cry from Duke's own 50.0 percent shooting from behind the arc the last game. 

Kentucky has lost three of the past four matchups w/ Duke and like the Blue Devils struggled a bit more than was anticipated in the season opener, a 78-65 win over Albany.  The New Jersey Institute of Technology provided less resistance in a 30-point Wildcats' victory on Saturday, but still, Coach Cal's team has a lower margin of victory to this point than does Duke, thus I feel the line has the wrong team favored. Not to mention, Duke is 32-3 SU its L35 non-conference games (22-12 ATS) and 31-3 SU after scoring 80+ points (22-11 ATS).  It being so early in the season, teams w/ this much new talent are somewhat of "crapshoots," but I expect the defending champs to be more "big game ready" at this juncture. 8* Duke

8* Over Toledo/Bowling Green (6:00 ET): I was pretty surprised to find that Toledo has gone Under in seven of its nine games this season. Granted, they have a defense which allows only 18.8 points per game and that was a major reason I went Under on their game vs. Northern Illinois two weeks ago (Rockets' only loss of the season!). But they do have an offense that averages nearly five touchdowns per game (34.9 PPG) and twice have scored more than 50 pts this season. Speaking of offense, Bowling Green comes in averaging a whopping 45.4 PPG this season (56.0 at home!) and is - by far - the most prolific opponent that Toledo will have faced all season. In fact, these are the two top ATS teams in the entire country, so w/ no advantage there, I'm instead taking a look at the total & I feel all the necessary ingredients are present for this game to go Over.

As I just alluded to, Bowling Green (who is unbeaten in conference play & has already clinched the MAC East) has the capability of sending a game Over the total by itself. The Falcons, #2 in the country (behind Baylor) in terms of offensive efficiency, are no strangers to high totals this season. They've gone Over two totals of 70+ and since a season-opening loss at Tennessee, there's been just two instances of the Falcons failing scoring 40 or more points. Both times came on the road. Their last time here at home, they lit Ohio up for 62 pts!  Over the L5 games, the team is averaging 54.4 PPG! While the Over is "just" 6-4 in all BGSU games this season, it is a perfect 4-0 in their home games. Let's also not discount a fairly leaky Falcons defense which permits 439 yards per game this season. They've been over that number each of the last two contests, however, been rather fortunate to allow just 51 total points.

Another thing that I was surprised to learn is that each of the last five meetings between these two rivals have stayed Under the total. But I'm not sure there was a time when both were so prolific offensively. We're talking two teams that combine to average more than 1,050 YPG!  Toledo's defense, which started the season by holding four of five opponents to 12 pts or less, has now allowed an average of 30.0 PPG its last three and so far they've really only faced one of the top offensive teams out of the MAC (N Illinois).  I anticipate both offenses to move the ball at will in this contest as each averages over six yards per play and that will lead to a ton of scoring. 8* Over Toledo/Bowling Green

8* San Francisco (10:00 ET):  Rice was not a good team last year.  The Owls finished 12-20 SU, although they were outscored by less than two points per game and actually went 17-9 at the betting window.  There was some promise coming into this season, but that went "out the window" w/ two key injuries, one to junior Marcus Jackson, who was started in all but one game LY and was expected to be their leading scorer TY.  The result was a starting five was in major flux coming into the season opener Thursday at California and things got downright ugly there as they fell by 32.  Given that result, I don't think the Owls are adequately priced here, especially considering an 0-5 ATS mark as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points the last two seasons.  Lay the points. 

San Francisco got its season off to a nice start w/ a 78-75 road win over IL-Chicago and I like their chances here as the Dons won while shooting only 38.1 percent.  USF isn't expected to be a player in the WCC this year and might not be even close to as formidable an opponent as Cal was for Rice, but playing at home and laying a short number seems ideal given that they were already able to win on the road.  When they are favored, the Dons typically take care of business, going 21-10 SU the L3 years and the number here is so short that I'm not really concerned about it "coming into play."  This team left a LOT of points on the table Friday at UIC due to missed free throws (went 22 of 39 from the charity stripe!) and coupled w/ the poor overall shooting, I'd expect a big bounce back night offensive against a Rice team that allowed Cal to shoot better than 50 percent from the floor.

More troubling for Rice is that they were 6 for 17 on three-pointers Friday, meaning they were just 16 for 43 inside the arc, which is beyond hideous. They were outscored by 16 in each half, another bad sign, and at no point were they competitive. Back to back road trips out West to start the season is not favorable, especially short-handed, and I'm just not sure where the points come from for the Owls right now.  This is a team that's won just 6 of its last 28 road games overall.  8* San Francisco

8* Houston (8:25 ET):  This play is a bit unique, because unlike the other two unbeatens I played against Sunday (Panthers, Patriots), I do not believe there's much of a likelihood that Cincinnati will lose this game. But, nevertheless, the number is too high. The Texans have had a LONG time to prepare here as they're coming off a bye. The Bengals, 7-0-1 ATS for the season, are certainly due to "slip up" and not cover a game. Like those other two aforementioned unbeatens, Cincy has certainly had its fair share of good fortune as half of their wins have come by six points or fewer. That's a continuation of last season where they went 3-0-1 in such games. Another team w/ a similar record in close games the L2 yrs (Green Bay) slipped up as a DD favorite yday (and I went against them!). Deja vu here? Take the points.

On the flip side, Houston has lost three games this year by exactly one touchdown. For them, they've had the exact opposite luck of Cincinnati in one-score games, going an unthinkable 4-16 straight up since the start of the 2013 season. This is a team that clearly needs to draft or sign a new QB for the future, but at least Brian Hoyer represents an upgrade over the released Ryan Mallett, who was all potential and no performance. The Texans have won two of three, albeit against Jacksonville and Tenessee, with Hoyer back at the helm. Another thing worth noting is that Houston has actually been favored in three of its games this season. Never have they gotten more than a TD from the linesmakers as they are here.

Believe it or not, but Houston is actually outgaining its opponents for the season, by 18.4 yards per game. Cincinnati, despite having a much better SU record, is outgaining foes by 42 YPG, which isn't a whole heck of a lot more. Something that will keep the Texans motivated here & down the stretch is that they are still very much alive in the odious AFC South as a win here would actually move them into a first place tie w/ Indianapolis, who is going to be w/o Andrew Luck for the next several games.  I'm leaning on the fact that DD dogs have been historically profitable.  8* Houston

10* Boston (8:05 ET):  I think that the wrong team may be favored here.  The Rockets, who are being outscored by nearly seven points per game this season, have dropped three in a row - all as favorites.  I went against them on Saturday as they fell here at home to Dallas, 110-98 (closed -7.5), which dropped them to 1-5 ATS when laying points and 1-5 ATS at the Toyota Center as well.  It was also their fourth double digit loss of the season already, which is an alarming number.  Boston, undervalued simply because they played last night, has been the much better of the two teams in the early part of the season and is the play here. Take the points.

The Celtics, now 4-1 SU/ATS their last five games, are coming off an impressive 100-85 win in Oklahoma City on Sunday. Yes, the Thunder didn't have Kevin Durant, but it was a spot I expected Boston to fail in nevertheless.  The Celtics actually trailed by seven at the half, but stormed back and dominated the fourth quarter, outscoring OKC 28-11.  This is a team that has a variety of contributors; last night it was Marcus Smart leading the way w/ a season-high 26 points, one of four Celts in double digits. It's been back to back double-digit victories for Boston, over Atlanta & OKC, yet they're still undervalued due to playing w/o rest. But that's just fine by me as this team is an outstanding 27-11 against the spread when taking the court for the second time in as many nights. As a road underdog of 3.5 to 5 points, they are on a 10-5 ATS run. This is really a great value on the team that's playing better right now.

Meanwhile, the Rockets have been just awful on the defensive end, giving up an average of 108.3 points per game. Only two teams - the Wizards and Pelicans (similar disappointments) - are giving up more currently.  I jumped all over the other side Saturday when they elected not to play Dwight Howard in the second game of a back to back.  It wasn't just the defense that was bad against the Mavs either; James Harden was a woeful 5 for 21 shooting and the team finished at only 38.1 percent from the floor, including 9 of 34 from three-point range. Houston, who has allowed 100+ points in every game this season, has yet to win when not hitting triple-digits themselves. That's problematic against a Celtics squad that is allowing just 92.2 PPG its L5.  10* Boston

8* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): Both of these teams played Sunday, yet experienced very different results. Memphis picked up a much needed win (just their 5th of the season) in Minnesota, beating the T'wolves 114-106.  Oklahoma City blew a seven-point halftime lead and ended up losing by double digits to Boston at home (scored only 11 fourth quarter points).  Obviously, there's still no Kevin Durant for the Thunder, but I think they'll be just fine here as they're clearly having a better season so far compared to the Grizzlies.  

OKC had won three in a row - all by double digits - prior to last night's loss.  For awhile, it appeared as if they were headed for a fourth straight DD win.  They even led by 11 early in the third quarter before the wheels fell off.  Russell Westbrook, as you may have guessed, didn't play well down the stretch and wasn't getting much help.  The team shot a season-low 36.4 percent from the field, including just 6 of 25 from three-point range.  Still though, I'm not convinced that the Thunder should be an underdog in this spot. Collectively, they should be better at the offensive end tonight and individually, Westbrook should have a better game. Coming off a SU loss as a favorite, OKC is 68-39 against the spread. They are averaging 110.1 PPG, second most in the entire league, trailing only Golden State.

Memphis, on the other hand, is nowhere near as prolific offensively.  Before yday's win, they were shooting a league-low 40.1 percent from the floor and their 93.4 PPG scoring average is ahead of only winless Philadelphia.  Here at home, they're averaging just 90.5 PPG. Needless to say, I don't see the Grizz matching Sunday's 56.4 shooting percentage (season-high).  They used to be able to "hang their hat" on the defensive end, but there have been issues on that end of the floor as well.  They've allowed 100+ in three straight games and this is a team that's already suffered five double digit losses this season, two of them (to Cleveland & Golden State) by a combined 80 points!  They have simply not performed well against the better teams on the schedule.  Take the points.  8* Oklahoma City

8* Montreal (7:35 ET): For the first time all season, I don't have the Habs in the top spot in my own personal power ratings (Rangers have taken over that spot). They have dropped B2B games, at Pittsburgh and vs Colorado, giving up 10 goals in the process. Their recent "mini-tumble" has coincided w/ the injury to goaltender Carey Price.  However, let's be clear here: this is still one of the best teams in the sport. They are 2nd in both goals scored and allowed and top three on both the power play and penalty kill.  Before getting pulled Saturday vs. Colorado, backup netminder Mike Condon had actually been playing quite well. He'd posted a 1.60 goals against average his first five starts after the Price injury and despite getting blown out 6-1 to the Avs, the Canadiens actually finished the game w/ a 40-24 edge in shots on goal. It was their first regulation loss all season. I'll call for them to bounce back here.

Meanwhile, Vancouver has dropped five of six and this will be their sixth consecutive road game out East. The trip finally ends Wednesday in Winnipeg and when it does, the Canucks will likely be very happy. That's because things have simply not gone well thus far, including losses at Buffalo and Toronto. Ryan Miller is really struggling in goal right now as he's allowed three or more goals in five straight starts, turning in a 3.46 GAA. His save percentage in his last four is a woeful .878! Shockingly, the Canucks beat Montreal 5-1 earlier in the season, but that was in Vancouver.  I like this as not only a "get-well," but also a revenge spot for the Habs.

Montreal has dropped consecutive games only one other time all season and in that instance they responded by blowing out another Western Canada team, Calgary, 6-2 on the road.  Again, they hadn't lost in regulation prior to the weekend.  Vancouver may have registered a season-high 45 shots in their 4-2 loss to Toronto on Saturday, but for a second time in three games, they also yielded 40+.  That's just not winning hockey and the team hasn't had much success here in Montreal, dropping five of their past six visits. 8* Montreal 

10* Under Coyotes/Islanders (7:05 ET):  Arizona, who most projected to finish near the bottom of the Western Conference, has gone a surprising 9-7-1 to this point, which has them second in the weak Pacific Division w/ 19 points. However, as you can see, the linesmakers aren't buying them (nor am I) as they've opened as big underdogs on the ML tonight against the Islanders. As much as I'd like to back the favorite in this situation, I'm unwilling to lay the juice in this particular instance. However, I am interested in the total as the Isles, who were thought to be one of the league's likely highest-scoring teams, have actually been a favorite of Under bettors to this point, going 5-12-1 O/U for the year.  I'm on the Under here as well.

While only middle of the road offensively (2.7 goals per game), the Islanders are top five in goals against (2.3) and on the penalty kill (86 percent).  Overall, the team has gone 6-1 Under its last seven games and allowed only five goals total on its recently completed West Coast swing against the three Southern California teams. Six of their previous eight opponents have been held to 25 shots or fewer. Goaltender Jaroslav Halak has played well recently (2.39 goals against average) and should be in net tonight. He has a 1.40 GAA his L5 starts vs. Arizona.  The only concern I have w/ the Isles is offensively, ironically enough, as they've scored just seven goals their last four home games and overall are just 1 for their last 21 on the power play.

The 'Yotes are off an ugly 5-2 loss in Columbus over the weekend, a game where goaltender Mike Smith really struggled, giving up five goals on just 21 shots. I'd rather see Anders Lindback (.935 save percentage) between the pipes tonight, but either way, I'm confident there won't be many goals scored tonight.  Arizona is bottom five in the league in shots per game (27.9) and their power play (11.6 percent) is the worst overall in the league.  In two games LY vs. the Islanders, all they could manage was a single goal.  10* Under Coyotes/Islanders

9* Over Flames/Blackhawks (8:35 ET):  The Under was 7-0-3 in Chicago's first 10 games this season, but then the Over has come storming back w/ a 6-0-1 mark the L7.  In only one of those contests were fewer than six total goals scored, so tonight's number looks like a really solid value against a Calgary team that has given up - by far - the most goals in the league in to this point (3.7 per game). As long as the Flames find the net a couple of times tonight, this one should have no problem flying Over the total.

As you might expect, Chicago has dominated Calgary through the years, going 18-4-3 the past 25 matchups.  That includes an 11-0-2 mark at home where they've averaged nearly four goals per game.  Calgary is allowing an average of four goals its last eight road games. Every goaltender on this roster currently has a save percentage below .900, which is atrocious.  It's especially troubling when going up against a team that typically puts a lot of shots on goal here at home. Patrick Kane has really picked up the pace for the Blackhawks and should continue his point streak tonight.

We know we'll need the Flames to score once or most likely twice to get our Over here and fortunately for our cause it appears as if Chicago will turn to Scott Darling for just a fourth time this season.  Darling is a significant downgrade compared to normal starter Corey Crawford.  Darling has an overall .885 save percentage, which is "Calgary-esque." The last time Darling was between the pipes, the 'Hawks lost to the Wild, 5-4.  I expect a similar type game tonight.   9* Over Flames/Blackhawks

10* Loyola Marymount (8:00 ET): This is a revenge spot for the underdog Lions, who are taking a generous number to boot.  Last season saw them lose, as eight-point home underdogs, 80-72 to the Anteaters.  So it was a push. Here, I expect better as LMU got away w/ shooting 34.7% from the floor in the season opener Friday, still beating Cal Irvine's conference rival Cal Fullerton, 79-74 as two-point home chalk.  Meanwhile, Cal Irvine is highly unlikely to match their own offensive production from Friday as they shot at a ridiculous 62% clip in an 89-72 win against overmatched Cal San Diego, a Division II squad. I'm taking the points here.

Loyola Marymount led their opener 41-31 and held off a late rally thanks to reserve Adom Jacko coming off the bench to post a double-double (22 pts, 12 rebounds).  This is a team that did not finish last year strong (lost last seven games) to finish 8-23 SU (4-14 in conf play) and they weren't particularly good at the betting window either, going 14-15-1 ATS.  But, on paper, this year's squad appears to be much improved.  A number of junior college transfers have come aboard in HC Mike Dunlap's second year at the helm.  The Lions went 8-5 ATS as road dogs last year, including 5-3 in the regular season when taking double digits.

UC Irvine made the NCAA Tournament last year and almost upset Louisville in the Round of 64. So they come into 2015-16 w/ high hopes. But they appear overvalued in this situation. They were 62.1 percent against the spread last season, so it's easy to understand why. But they were just 5-6 ATS home & it was only a March surge that brought them to such overall profitability.  They led LMU, wire to wire, last year, but never by the amount the oddsmakers are calling for here.  This should be a close game throughout.  10* Loyola Marymount

8* Utah (6:05 ET):  This has been a tough road trip for the Jazz, who have lost all three games thus far coming into the finale Sunday at Atlanta. The first two games, against Cleveland and Miami, were both close throughout, but then playing for a third time in four nights proved to be too tough as they fell way behind Orlando early on Friday. A late rally made things look a tad bit more respectable, but the bottom line is I expect the Quinn Snyder's team to be quite hungry this evening. They look like a really solid value plus the points here, not only because I actually have them rated higher than Atlanta, but also the Hawks have failed to cover their last three games, all as favorites. Take the points.

I played against the Hawks their last time out, the result there being a 106-93 at Boston as a 1-pt favorite. They were dominated on the boards and had to play w/o their coach Mike Budenholzer due to a medical issue w/ his wife. They'll be w/o Budenholzer again here and if the Boston game is any indication, that's going to be trouble. Of late, the team just hasn't been playing well as they trailed Minnesota by as many as 30 - at home - before having to hold off an Anthony Davis-less New Orleans team as well. Over their L5 games, Atlanta is allowing 107 points per game w/ opponents shooting 47.9 percent. They are 2-4 ATS at home this year, losing outright twice, and four wins have been by six points or less.

Utah is one of the top defensive teams in the league; in fact they came into Friday #1 in the league in points allowed.  Neither Rudy Gobert nor Rodney Hood were on the floor Friday due to respective injuries and their statuses are still in question for Sunday.  But with or without, the Jazz should play much better than they did against the Magic.  I have to imagine that they will see their overall shooting percentage (42.2%) start to rise.  HC Snyder even admitted his team was "on fumes" vs. Orlando, so after being off Saturday, I expect a much sharper effort here.  The Jazz had covered six of seven, including four straight, prior to losing to the Magic. They are a perfect 3-0 ATS as dogs this season. 8* Utah

10* Under Trail Blazers/Hornets (5:05 ET):  Portland has gone Over in seven consecutive games. But, this evening, they have an opponent that can help end that streak in Charlotte, who generally speaking will turn in a solid defensive effort and rarely tops 100 points. In fact, if you were to take out a 130-point "explosion" against the Bulls, then the Hornets' offensive numbers would come WAY down.  This will almost assuredly close as the highest O/U line for a Charlotte game to date. Interestingly enough, these teams have combined to go Over the total in all four meetings the last two seasons. But looking at the two O/U lines from last season, they were significantly lower, by double digits in fact. Take the Under.

Charlotte comes in off a loss at Chicago Friday night where they scored 33 points fewer than they did in the season's first meeting w/ the Bulls.  It was also their third consecutive Under. In fact, only two Hornets games all season have seen more than 202 total pts scored. Interestingly enough, the totals for both of those contests were low. As a favorite, Charlotte is 37-25 Under the last three seasons. That includes a 10-4 mark as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Something else worth noting here is that the Hornets went 15 of 33 from three-point range Friday night and still only scored 97 points. It is highly unlikely that they will have a repeat performance from behind the arc as those 15 makes actually tied a franchise record for a single game.

Portland, who has had to replace four starters from last season, has not been strong on the defensive end lately as they've allowed seven of nine opponents to top 100 points, including four straight. That streak was poised to end Friday, but a Zach Randolph buzzer-beater gave Memphis a 101-100 victory.  In the past, the Blazers have done an excellent job at limiting Charlotte's offensive production, keeping them at 91.9 points per game the L12 meetings.  On the flip side, I expect Portland to struggle from three-point range in this matchup as the Hornets are holding teams to just 31.9% shooting from three-point range.  10* Under Trail Blazers/Hornets

8* NY Giants (4:25 ET): At first, I was a little leery of the public buying into the whole "can the Giants do it AGAIN to the Patriots?" storyline, but it is clear that they have not and thus once again the value is on the underdog G-Men in matchup with New England. Famously, Tom Coughlin's team has pulled the upset twice on Bill Belichick in Super Bowls, but he is also 2-0 SU/ATS against "The Hoodie" in the regular season since '07 as well.  In fact, the Giants are the ONLY team in the league that the Patriots haven't beaten over the L10 seasons! I'm not sure if that streak stays in tact after Sunday, but I do like the Giants (who have led in every game this season) to at least cover the generous spread here at home. Take the points.

Yes, the Giants have had the lead at one point in every game this season. Granted, they have been outgained in all but one game (a 30-27 win over lowly San Francisco where Eli Manning threw for 400+ yards), sometimes severely so.  But, with the exception of an ugly Monday Night performance against the Eagles, they've been competitive in every game, never losing by more than four points.  That bodes well for them here, even against the consensus best team in the league.  Coughlin is often at his best in the underdog role and this season has been no different w/ a 2-1-1 ATS mark, including an outright win at Buffalo.

It's highly unusual to still have three unbeaten teams this late in the NFL season, but history suggests that number is about to start dwindling.  That's because since '03, unbeaten teams are just 14-22 ATS from Week 10 on in the regular season. You'll recall that during their unbeaten regular season of '07, the oddsmakers eventually "caught up" to the Patriots. I suppose that, nor how the '07 season ultimately ended for the Pats, really matters here. But I'll continue to assert that this year's team is nowhere near as good as the '07 version. They have won half of their games by eight points or less.  Injuries have become a major concern w/ RB Dion Lewis now done for the season, not to mention the offensive line is in shambles. The Giants defense is a concern as is the fact that is their 10th game in a row w/o a bye, but their opportunistic nature (league-high 21 forced turnovers) will keep them in it.  8* NY Giants

10* Kansas City (4:05 ET):  This is a "re-do" of sorts for me after I lost a big play on the Chiefs back in Week 2 against the Broncos. Hosting Denver on a Thursday night (as 3-point favorites), it appeared as if KC would be able to overcome four turnovers and finally beat their AFC West rivals as they had a 24-17 lead late in the fourth quarter. However, it was not to be. A late TD drive engineered by Peyton Manning tied the game and then a fifth turnover, a Jamaal Charles fumble that was returned by the Denver defense for a TD, proved to be the difference maker in the cruelest of losses for the Chiefs. Considering where the line was at for that first meeting and how the so-called "smart money" has spoken for the rematch, I'm on Andy Reid's team again as they are coming off a bye and due to end an ugly seven-game losing streak to Manning and the Broncos. Take the points.

Before the bye, KC turned in - by far- its most complete effort of the season w/ a 45-10 beatdown of Detroit over in London.  Granted, the Lions offered little in the way of resistance, but it was still nice to see the Chiefs' ground game rush for 4 TD's.  Charles may be out for the season, but the Cheifs have not struggled to run the ball w/o him as Charcandrick West has emerged w/ 200+ yards the L2 games, both wins. The Chiefs dug themselves an early season hole, but by no means are out of contention in a not-very deep AFC field.  Three of their losses this season, including Denver, have been by seven points or less.  They've turned the ball over just three times since the Wk 2 loss and have won the TO battle each of the L4 games. Meanwhile, Denver has turned the ball over a total of 12 times its L6 contests. 

The Broncos' defense has carried the team this year in lieu of Manning's decline, but will be w/o two key contributors this week - DeMarcus Ware & Aqib Talib - both massive losses.  I expect it will be the Chiefs defense that is the difference this time around. Not only did they sack Manning three times in the first meeting, but they held the Broncos to just 61 yards rushing. Sadly, that lack of production from the ground game is nothing new for Denver fans as their team ranks 28th in the league in rushing (88.1 YPG) after being held to a sorry 35 yds in LW's outright loss to the Colts.  Though they started the season 7-0 & their stock was at an all-time high after crushing Green Bay two weeks ago, five of the Broncos' victories this season have come in one-score games. Losing to the Colts (who I was on) last week was "reality check" that this team had actually not played all that well its first six games of the season. Depleted somewhat on the defensive side of the ball, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a carryover from last week's "head-scratcher."  10* Kansas City

8* Detroit (1:00 ET):  For a second straight week, it appears as if the public is set to "load up" on the Packers coming off a loss. That strategy certainly didn't work too well last week as GB lost as a three-point favorite at Carolina, 37-29.  Even that final is a bit misleading as the Pack trailed by as many as 23 early in the fourth quarter before a late comeback ultimately came up short. Before scoring two late TD's, Green Bay had been outscored by Denver & Carolina by a combined 66-24 over seven-plus quarters.  Those might be two of the best teams in the league, record-wise, but still it's not a "good look."  Back at home w/ lowly Detroit coming to town, the expectation here is for the Packers to roll, but at the very worse I expect the "back door" to be open for a Lions team coming off its bye.  Take the points.

Detroit has the worst ATS record in the league, currently at 1-7 ATS.  That one cover came in the Monday night debacle vs. Seattle, a game they very well could have won, but also failed to score an offensive touchdown. There's been plenty of upheavel in the Motor City the last couple weeks w/ firings in the front office and a change of offensive coordinators. HC Jim Caldwell may very well be the next one to go, even though he's only a year removed from taking this team to playoffs.  Even though they got hammered in London, I don't think the Lions are necessarily as bad as their record indicates. It's certainly not looking good and they likely won't win here, but with an extra week to prepare, I am expecting a competitive game from them.  They are 2-0 ATS off the bye the L2 seasons and this will be the most points they've taken in any game the L3 seasons.

You'll probably hear a lot about how the Packers have beaten the Lions an amazing 24 straight times here at Lambeau.  But all that tidbit has done here is drive the line up.  Underdogs of this size are normally a really solid value in division contests and you'd have to go all the way back to 2010 to find the last time Detroit was catching double digits here. Sure enough, they covered the 14.5 pt spot easily there, losing by only two.  Injuries have become a concern for the Packers and they've failed to cash two of the last three times they've been listed as DD chalk. I wouldn't be surprised if they get caught "peaking ahead" to a first place showdown at Minnesota next week either.  8* Detroit

10* Washington (1:00 ET):  Taking advantage of the fact that the public was fawning all over them scoring 52 points the week prior, I stepped out against the Saints (who were at home) last week and was richly rewarded w/ a 34-28 outright win by underdog Tennessee.  There's no sugarcoating this, so I'll just come out and say it.  Rob Ryan's defense absolutely stinks. They gave up nearly 500 yards to the punchless Titans last week and now rank 31st in the league in yards allowed per game. Only the Giants team that they torched two weeks ago allows more. Still, that hasn't stopped the public from "getting down" yet again on New Orleans as a small road favorite (line hovering around a Pick 'em all week), which is a curious decision considering this game is outdoors, a setting where the Saints often struggle.

Now, I also was on Washington last week. That play didn't go nearly as well. Needless to say, the Redskins' "A-game" may not even be enough to beat the Patriots, but what Jay Gruden's team brought to Foxboro last Sunday was far less than that as simple concepts like "catching the ball" and "tackling" seemed to be strangely foreign to a team coming off its bye week. But one bad loss isn't nearly enough to back me off the 'Skins in this one, even though they've now gone three straight games w/o a cover. They've played one top defense (Jets) and one top offense (Patriots) during that period, both on the road, but here at home the results have been much better. They've won three straight here in the Nation's Captal and are allowing just 19.2 points per game here.  New Orleans is just 9-13 SU/ATS on the road since the start of the 2013 season.

Kirk Cousins may not be a viable long-term starter in D.C., but he should have a big game here against the porous Saints' defense. Not only does New Orleans give up the second most yards per game in the league; they give up the most "big plays" ie passes of 40+ yds.  They've allowed 11 such completions, six of them for touchdowns! If that's not bad enough, they allow 6.47 yards per game and opposing QB's are on a pace for the highest passer rating the league has seen in over 50 years! Six teams have gained at least 400 total yds on the Saints.  Drew Brees outdoors is not the same as Drew Brees indoors and won't be able to account for his own team's defensive ineptitude. Cousins and the Redskins offense is already averaging a solid 373 YPG at home this season. 10* Washington

8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): The Titans came through for me last week even better than expected as they upset the heavily favored Saints, in New Orleans, 34-28 in overtime.  While some will look at the now 2-6 record and dismiss their chances of posting B2B victories, I think that's a mistake. This team has played better than the record shows as its actually outgained its opponents on a per game basis.  They've also suffered three losses by a combined six points here at home, where they've yet to win this year & somehow have gone an abysmal 4-20 SU and 4-16-4 (four pushes?) the L3 seasons. That's "due" to correct itself. Carolina, for being unbeaten, has been quite fortunate as all but three of its victories have been one-possession games. I'm not ruling out the outright upset here.  Take the points.

Twice this season Tennessee has lost at home with the defense allowing 14 or fewer points. That's hard to do. But w/ rookie QB Marcus Mariota back in the fold, the offense is a whole lot better. Last week saw them score 33+ points for the third time this season w/ Mariota under center.  Sure, the New Orleans defense played a role in that, but it was still a season-high 483 total yards for Mariota and company. What if I told you that the Carolina defense was actually giving up more yards per game than Tennessee?  The Titans held the Falcons to just 10 points here in Nashville three weeks ago and likely would have won that game if Mariota had played instead of Zach Mettenberger. In Miami, we saw a temporary surge after a coaching change and I anticipate we'll see the same here w/ Mike Mularkey in Tennessee.

Carolina has largely flown under the radar this season as they already have more wins (8) than they did all of last season when they actually won what was a horrible division. But after beating Green Bay last week, the spotlight is officially on them and it now seems as if the public is as well. Something to keep in mind is that while they may be tied for the league's best record, the Panthers' average margin of victory ranks 21st! They are just +1 in points scored vs. allowed in the 4Q this season and have blown or almost blown a pair of 20+ point leads the last two weeks. That should give us reason to believe that at the very worst, the backdoor will be open here. Since 2003, unbeaten teams are a money-burning 14-22 ATS from Week 10 on in the regular season.  8* Tennessee

8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET):  I get that the Bucs fell out of the public's favor long ago, but the more popular Cowboys certainly don't seem to worthy of this kind of respect either given that they've yet to win a single time since Tony Romo went down w/ a collarbone injury all the way back in Week 2.  Yes, they've been close a number of times, twice suffering the ignominy of not only losing but failing to cover as dogs in overtime, but Matt Cassel is still a terrible quarterback and this team is in turmoil. This offense has not scored more than 20 points in B2B games since losing Romo and with four of their next five games coming on the road, the season is all but over.  At some point, it's going to be too difficult for them to "get back off the mat" and I think that time is now. 

Homefield advantage is still supposed to matter in the NFL, but don't tell that to the Bucs. They've won just one home game since the start of last season and that came earlier this season at the expense of Jacksonville. However, isn't the worm "due to turn?"  I think that this week is the perfect "tipping point" as perhaps you recall that Dallas won all eight of its regular season road games a year ago, something that pointed towards clear regression this season, a fate further cemented by the Romo injury, something I simply cannot mention enough.  For Tampa Bay, they've actually been better than their record shows as there have been three instances in the last five games where they've outgained an opponent, only to come up short on the scoreboard.  That's tough. Ironically, they were actually outgained in an impressive win at Atlanta two weeks ago. Last week's 32-18 loss to the Giants is misleading in the sense that it was a 23-18 game in the final minute before a NY field goal was followed up by a fumble return for a touchdown.

It's pretty rare to find a team riding a six-game losing streak, down to its third quarterback, as a virtual pick em on the road.  But that's Dallas for you. Dez Bryant's most recent blowup does this team no favors, nor does still having Cassel at the helm.  I was happy to see him play relatively well last Sunday night vs. Philadelphia (had the Over), but wasn't it just two weeks ago that he didn't even complete a pass longer than 10 yards and finished w/ less than 100 yds for the game? (Answer: It was!). If this season hadn't already been miserable enough for the Cowboys, now word comes down that they will be w/o leading tackler Sean Lee (concussion) for this game.  I've seen some other rating systems that say Dallas should still be favored here, but my own does not.  8* Tampa Bay

8* Wyoming (10:30 ET):  San Diego State has plenty of momentum as they're in the catbird's seat in the Mountain West's West Division w/ a 5-0 conference record and two-game lead over the rest of the field. At one point, the Aztecs were 1-3 including an ugly loss here at home to South Alabama (as 17.5-pt favorites). Improved health is as big a reason as anything for the improvement, but so too is a relatively weak slate of MWC opponents. They're 5-0 ATS during the win streak as well, but have never been asked to lay more than a touchdown and three times went off as a dog or pick 'em. This is a hefty price tag to lay against a Wyoming team that earlier in the year was covering similarly large spreads. Take the points.

San Diego State is off a bye here as well. Normally, that would be a good thing, but I'm not sure it is in this instance. The Aztecs were rolling and with three very winnable games between now and the inevitable Conference Championship Game, this could be a letdown situation. A very fortunate +8 turnover margin played a big role in the Aztecs' last two wins, over Utah State and Colorado State and that's a difficult ratio to maintain.  Overall, they are +11 in TO's during the five-game win streak.  It was a 13-10 game against Colorado State at halftime two weeks ago.  It's also interesting to note just how one-dimensional this offense is. They have not attempted more than 15 passes in any of the five wins. Wyoming has been routinely gashed over land this season, but they should be prepared here as the SDSU gameplan is well-known.

While the Aztecs are off a win over Colorado State, Wyoming lost last week to the Rams, 26-7 as 9.5-pt home dogs.  The ever-present turnover bug bit the Cowboys in that one w/ four giveaways.  This team is just 1-9 straight up this season, so they have nothing to play for, however they have typically played tough for HC Craig Bohl.  A 58-27 loss at Utah State wasn't nearly as bad as it looked (were covering entering 4Q) and before that they'd covered four in a row.  That loss to USU was the ONLY time this season that these Pokes have lost by more than three touchdowns.  Predictably, everyone is on the favorite here and that's provided additional value going the other way. 8* Wyoming.

10* Cleveland (8:35 ET):  I took a 'push' on Cleveland last night, but for many the ATS result may very well have been a loss as they were bet up from the opening line of -6 against the Knicks (won 90-84). That would make it six straight non-covers for the Cavaliers following a 3-0 ATS start (were underdogs twice!), but remember that they've generally been asked to lay large numbers at the betting window. Despite being injured (no Kyrie Irving & Iman Shumpert), they continue to take care of business, winning eight straight against lesser competition. A weak early season slate continues tonight w/ a visit to Milwaukee and I see the Cavs covering here against a Bucks team that has certainly regressed from LY's campaign where they covered over 55% of their games. Lay the points. 

For a third time in this package, we have the road team being undervalued because of a back to back scenario. Cleveland, in stark contrast to last season, is almost "under the radar" right now but owns the Eastern Conference's best scoring margin (+8.3 points per game), which is what you'd expect.  Looking at the upcoming schedule, a case can certainly be made that they could be 13-1 heading into a game at Toronto the day before Thanksgiving. While the hole the team dug itself in last night vs. the Knicks is a bit concerning, they again showed they have little difficulty coming from behind.  That, of course, can be a bit problematic when laying points, but if we get a complete game here from LeBron and company, then the Cavs will cover this number w/ plenty of room to spare.

  Milwaukee has also played a light schedule this year, but they have only four wins and three came at the expense of either Brooklyn or Philadelphia, the two consensus worst teams in the league right now. Three times this season, the Bucks have dropped a game by 15+ points. They are coming off a one-point loss in Denver Wednesday and that was while shooting a season-best 53.2% from the floor. This is a much better defensive team that they face tonight as last night saw Cleveland hold the Knicks to just 12 fourth quarter points. Of course, there's no debate who the better offensive team is here either. The Cavs are 12-5 ATS after holding their previous opponent to 85 pts or less. 10* Cleveland

8* Dallas (8:05 ET): Here, we have another undervalued team, fueled by revenge, that is being undervalued due to the back to back scenario. The Mavericks won last night, 90-82 over the lowly Lakers (as 7.5-pt favorites), and despite the perception (largely correct) that this team is not as good as it once was, I believe they are in line to starting being undervalued on a game by game basis. Last season, Dallas was one of the worst ATS teams in the league (42.2%) while Houston was the most profitable to bet on (59.2%). But the Rockets certainly appear to have taken a big step back this season as they are only 3-6 vs. the number, including B2B outright losses to Brooklyn and Denver. Take the points here.

The Rockets played last night as well, losing in Denver 107-98 as 6.5-pt chalk.  There was a thought that Dwight Howard might be rested Friday, but he played, scoring 12 points and grabbing 10 rebounds, and the team still lost.  Now he's likely to miss this game, a huge break for the underdog Mavericks, who are looking to snap a 1-6 SU/ATS slide here in Houston. Remember that the Rockets eliminated the Mavs from LY's playoffs, a fact that I'm sure won't be lost on the Dallas players. Looking at just this season, it's hard to make a case for Houston to even be favored here as they are now giving up 108.1 points per game and are being outscored by 6.3 points on a per game basis. They're only 1-4 ATS at home and 1-4 ATS when favored.

Meanwhile, the Mavs have had a much better week than the Rockets, beating the Clippers and Lakers at home by a combined 18 points. Last night, they finally got almost a full game from Chandler Parsons, who played both halves last night for the first time all season. Unfortunately, that means that he's unlikely to play tonight, but I still think they'll do just fine by leaning on the emerging ZaZa Pachulia (really!) as their "consolation prize" signing ("Plan B" after being spurned by DeAndre Jordan) is averaging a double-double thus far.  In addition to being woeful defensively, Houston continues to turn the ball over way too much (20+ three times in the L5 games).  8* Dallas

8* Baylor (8:00 ET):  This late in the season, I rarely will take an unbeaten team. The odds against running the table are just too great. But there are exceptions to every rule and we have one such exception this week in Waco where we have a line that's bordering on disrespect w/ #6 Baylor now being asked to lay less than a field goal to red-hot Oklahoma. This matchup is a bit of a "double-edged" sword for me as before the season I bet the Sooners to make the College Football Playoff. Despite an ugly loss to Texas, they're still alive, but a loss here would certainly disqualify them from contention. Unfortunately for them, they are playing against a team that has beaten them by a combined 63 points the last two seasons.  This line is way too low. 

The reason for the line being so low is that since losing to Texas, OU has really gained steam. They've won four in a row, by an average of 48 points per game and outgained those opponents by a preposterous margin.  However, this matchup reminds me of that Michigan State-Michigan game that took place earlier this year. We all remember how it ended, but it's easy to forget that Michigan State had been bet as high as a 7-point underdog and really was never in danger of not covering. That matchup, like this one, sees a stark contrast between the lookahead and current line.  The former was -13 before the season started and even when betting opened at the start of the week was Baylor -5.  Now it's passed through the "key" number of 3. That's huge. Remember that Baylor has lost ONE home game the L4 seasons. Against ranked teams here in Waco, they are 7-1 ATS the past five seasons. 

Last week against Kansas State saw true frosh Jarrett Stidham make his starting debut at QB for the Bears and the much hyped prospect performed admirably. Actually, that's putting it mildly.  In Art Briles' "plug and play" offense, he threw for 419 yards. Remember because Baylor typically builds such large leads (avg MOV this year = 32.4 PPG!), Stidham got into most of the early games as the backup to Seth Russell. Making Stidham's job easier is the presence of WR Corey Coleman.  Also, while I played against this team last week (were on the road) and covered w/ Kansas State (getting 17 pts), that was a 31-10 game in the fourth quarter before B2B "garbage time" touchdowns got the Wildcats in through the backdoor. If that's not enough, consider Oklahoma's poor recent history against Baylor. In the last four matchups, the Bears have scored 21 TD's on 56 drives against this Sooners defense while averaging 6.2 yards per play!  The public has bought into the Oklahoma hype train too much here.  8* Baylor

8* Orlando (7:00 ET):  Washington has beaten the Magic nine straight times, not losing to them once in the past three seasons. In every one of those matchups, including an 88-87 (-4) win in this season's opener, the Wizards were considered to be the better team. The linesmakers are sticking w/ that thought process here, but even in D.C., I'm not entirely sure that I agree. Orlando did cover the season opener and overall have been the better team this season as they're now a league-best 8-2 ATS (5-5 SU) following an impressive 102-93 win over a good Utah team last night. The oddsmakers' unwillingness to favor the Magic this season (happened only two times) again works in our favor tonight.  Take the points.

Orlando didn't need Victor Oladipo (concussion) yday as they became just the second team (besides Cleveland) to score 100+ against a Jazz team that came in #1 in the NBA in points allowed. That game was virtually "over before it started" as the Magic opened on a 16-2 run, were up 33-15 after the first quarter and led by as many as 23 in the fourth quarter. A late and relatively meaningless Utah rally made the game seem closer than it actually was, so perhaps that and certainly the fact the Magic are playing in the second game of a back to back have them severely undervalued here. I'm not saying that they SHOULD be favored here (although my secondary power ratings say they should be!), but my main ratings say the line should be much lower. They are 2-0 ATS so far w/o rest, 7-1 ATS as a dog and have big-time revenge.

It's not just Orlando that should be lauded here, but Washington needs to be criticized. The Wizards promised to play at a faster pace in the preseason, but so far all that's delivered is a 5-1-1 Over record as they're giving up a whopping 110.4 points per game, which is second most only behind similarly disappointing New Orleans. Take away the win over Orlando and that number jumps to 114.3 PPG allowed. They just gave up 37 points in the first quarter and 68 in the first half of a 24-point home loss to Oklahoma City Tuesday. Orlando, who has had no such issues defensively (94.6 PPG allowed L5), should certainly improve upon its 12 of 32 shooting in the paint from last night and more good news is that the Thunder were 15 of 23 from three-point range against the Wizards, who may be w/o Bradley Beal here. You could certainly argue that the Magic are the better team right now whether or not the Wiz have Beal in the lineup.  8* Orlando

8* Texas State (4:00 ET): We turn to another ugly team in a Sun Belt matchup to complete this week's POWER-SWEEP. In this instance, it's Texas State, a 2-6 team coming off a very embarrassing loss. The Bobcats came into 2015 w/ a lot of enthusiasm. They were 7-5 SU last year, but not invited to a bowl, so the thought process was this would be a highly motivated bunch. But unless they win out, which would mean an upset of SBC leader Arkansas State in the season finale, TSU will again not be going bowling at the end of the year. That means motivation should be at an all-time high Saturday in San Marcos, especially w/ the team coming off perhaps the nadir of the Dennis Franchione era, last week's 31-21 home loss to New Mexico State. 

You'll obviously notice that Texas State is still a favorite this week. That's because they are taking on a fellow 2-6 team, Georgia State, a program that has just FOUR wins to its credit over the past four seasons and three of them were against teams that were at the FCS level last year or currently still there!  The fact we can get away w/ laying a field goal or less to the Panthers is an absolute steal.  GSU did come up just two points shy against UL Lafayette last week.  But all that result has done, combined w/ Texas State's result, is present a ton of value here. Remember that this Georgia State team lost to Liberty earlier in the year, at home, while giving up over 500 yards! Last season, at home, they were 14-point dogs to Texas State and lost 54-31. As a FBS team, the Panthers are 0-4 ATS as a single-digit dog. So the market (i.e. line) shifting this much in one year's time is an overreaction, in my opinion, to recent results. 

Now there's no sugarcoating Texas State's 31-21 loss to New Mexico State LW here in San Marcos. As of two weeks ago, the visiting Aggies didn't even have a win to their name and they ended up outgaining the Bobcats 527-400 as 16.5-point dogs.  However, Texas State did lead with just 10 minutes remaining and likely would have won if not for a -3 turnover differential (two TO's inside the NMSU 10-yd line) and a missed field goal. Had they won the game, you can't tell me that this line would be so low.  The Bobcats' offense, averaging 516 YPG here at home, should bounce back w/ a big game here.  More fun w/ Georgia State: this year's win at Ball State was their first and only road win against a FBS team - ever.  Somehow, Texas State has gone the entire season w/o a single interception.  That's due to change.  So is the team's fortune. 8* Texas State

10* Iowa State (3:30 ET):  Two weeks ago, ISU treated me to a fantastic upset here in Ames, shutting out Texas 24-0.  It certainly won't be that easy as unbeaten Oklahoma State comes calling this week, but the points are more plentiful and we're also able to take advantage of a public perception that has swung entirely too far in the Cowboys' favor here. OSU's 49-29 stunner (at home) against TCU was as phony a result as you'll find from last Saturday as the Pokes gave up well over 600 total yards (663 to be exact!), only for four turnovers to make up the difference in a major way (INT return for TD in final minute) as did a bevy of other big plays, plus an injury to TCU's top receiver.  This is a colossal sandwich spot for Mike Gundy's team as well, coming off a massive upset and w/ both Baylor and Oklahoma (both in Stillwater) on deck.  Take the points here.

Oklahoma State's stock has risen more than arguably any other team in the country the last seven days. They jumped from #12 to #5 in the AP Poll and more importantly from #14 to #8 in the CFP rankings.  If you recall my Big 12 Season Preview, I made sure to note that the conference would "run through Stillwater" this year as the Cowboys get to host all of their top rivals. They just knocked one off and have two more to go.  This game isn't likely to have the same level of attention though, and being on the road that could mean trouble. They've been shaky already on the road this year, trailing in all four games, most recently by as many as 17 to Texas Tech, who thankfully (for OSU) has a terrible defense. The Pokes still gave up 53 points in that matchup and also barely escaped conference roadies against West Virginia and Texas, needing OT and a special teams debacle just to beat those opponents by a combined 10 points.  Heck, they even trailed Central Michigan in the 2H of the season opener. 

Iowa State ran into a buzzsaw known as Oklahoma last week, losing 52-16 (as 25-pt dogs) in Norman. But the week previous was that shutout of Texas here in Ames.  There can be no denying that, to this point, the Cyclones have played the more daunting conference slate. They've already taken on Baylor and Oklahoma and thus I believe their defensive numbers actually looked comparable to those of Oklahoma State.  As I discussed in my analysis of the ISU-Texas matchup, there was a late season QB change here for the Cyclones & I think Joel Lanning could very well have his best game yet this week. This is an offense averaging over 410 YPG. Don't forget that an unbeaten Oklahoma State team came into Ames in 2011 and lost outright. Deja vu? 10* Iowa State

8* LA Monroe (3:00 ET):  The 1-8 Warhawks are drawing virtually no support from the public here, quite literally, as a quick check of the betting percentages reveals that less than 5% of all total tickets for this matchup have been written on them as of press time. I can't recall such one-sided betting for any College Football game in recent memory. Remember that last week I took Nebraska, who was receiving less than 10% of all bets and all the Cornhuskers did was pull a stunning outright upset. I'm not saying that will be the result here, but the pieces are certainly in place for the dog to cover against an Arkansas State team in clear letdown mode after pulling an upset of their own, as 12.5-pt pups at Appalachian State, last week. Take the points. 

Let's be clear that LA Monroe is off a horrendous loss last week, 51-17 to Troy, a game they found themselves down 48-14 at the half! As you might have guessed, Troy had two defensive scores in that first half as LA Monroe wound up turning the ball over a total of six times, thus rendering irrelevant the fact the two teams were actually even in first downs for the game! Generally speaking, the Warhawks have been relatively competitive this year, well save for two games against Georgia and Alabama, plus another against former SBC leader Appalachian State. Two weeks ago, they lost to rival LA Lafayette by just six points and had a 341-261 edge in total yards. This will be their first game at home in nearly a month and last year on the road, they were only 12-point dogs to Arkansas State in an eventual 14-point loss (28-14) that was scoreless tie at halftime.  HC Todd Berry, in his sixth season at Monroe, likely needs a strong finish to the season to retain his job.

Arkansas State rolled up 40 pts and over 500 yards in its big upset of Appalachian State last week, but really it was a +3 turnover differential that "told the story."  They actually trailed at the half, despite a defensive score, before rattling off 16 straight points to take the lead for good. This Red Wolves' defense is not particularly good as they allow 36.1 points and 410.7 yards per game. This one might not be pretty, but I anticipate that - at worst - the proverbial "back door" will be open and thus we'll get the cover. 8* LA Monroe

8* Illinois (12:00 ET):  Reminiscent of Florida State last season, defending Nat'l Champ Ohio State has not lived up to expectations so far, particularly at the betting window where they have gone just 3-6 against the spread. Two of those covers have come in primetime affairs, one (Va Tech in the season opener) a revenge spot for LY's lone SU loss (the other was vs. Penn State). The only other time OSU covered was a 49-7 beatdown of lowly Rutgers, arguably the Big 10's worst team. This is not a game against Rutgers, nor a primetime matchup, which again calls the Buckeyes' motivation into question. Most intriguing is the fact that almost all of the bets for this game are on OSU, yet the line actually came down initially. I'm siding w/ an Illinois team that certainly won't be lacking for motivation (need one more win to become bowl eligible) and treated me well last week to boot (won 48-14 at Purdue). Take the points.

After serving a one-game suspension for an alcohol-related incident, JT Barrett will be back at quarterback for the Buckeyes Saturday and the expectation is that the offense will again be in peak form after struggling somewhat LW w/ Cardale Jones at the helm.  I think that expectation is misguided, especially because the host Illini have a defense that's allowing an average of just 13 points per game here in Champaign-Urbana. Ohio State, who hasn't really played anybody of substance yet, has its two biggest games of the season on deck: Michigan State and at Michigan. That makes this the classic "look ahead" for them. The last three seasons under Urban Meyer, the team is just 3-7 ATS in the month of November.

I was on Illinois last week as they went to Purdue and destroyed the Boilermakers 48-14 as a short favorite.  A real key, and this was something I cited in my analysis, was the return of RB Josh Ferguson as he gained 133 yards over land on just 12 carries. He and freshman Ke'Shawn Vaughn helped the team run for an astounding 382 rushing yards total. Again, interim HC Bill Cubit is coaching for his job and the team is looking for its sixth win.  You know that we're going to get the Illini's best shot here. The same cannot be said for Ohio State, who has played down to the wire games vs. Northern Illinois and Indiana. Even the wins against Va Tech, Hawaii, Maryland, Penn State and Rutgers were two-score games entering the fourth quarter.  8* Illinois

10* West Virginia (12:00 ET):  Let's start this analysis by talking about what happened last week here in Morgantown. Up five, very late in the 4th quarter, WVU (-8) was driving and looking to put Texas Tech away. They made it all the way down to the goal line w/ (presumably) two shots to put the ball in the end zone and cover. (I assume Dana Holgorsen would have gone for it on 4th and inches). Unfortunately, a really dumb Texas Tech penalty was called for a facemask, thus allowing the Mountaineers to simply kneel and run out the clock, rather than score. Talk about a bad beat. It was West Virginia's fifth consecutive ATS loss, though on the bright side they did snap a four-game SU losing skid.  Though the number is identical this week and the opponent possibly more formidable, I'm going back to the well. Lay the points.

Part of the reason I feel comfortable laying the points in this situation is that WVU is just "due."  But most of it has to do w/ Texas' awful play on the road this year. You may recall that it was just two weeks ago that I went against the Longhorns, who were laying somewhere between a field goal & a touchdown (line moved) to Iowa State and not only did they lose the game outright, they were shut out 24-0! That was just the latest in a string of atrocious results away from Austin.  Yes, they did upset rival Oklahoma as 17-point dogs (I was ON the 'Horns there!), but that was at a "neutral" setting (Dallas). Here's what Charlie Strong's team has done in "true" road games this year: lost at Notre Dame 38-3, lost at TCU 50-7, lost at Iowa State 24-0.  That's a cumulative score of 122-10 for those "keeping score at home" while being outgained by nearly 300 yards per game. It's the second worst scoring margin, on a per game basis, for any FBS school this year on the road.  Ouch!

The West Virginia offense ran wild for 300 yards on the ground last week (5.0 YPC in the 4th quarter!) and while Texas Tech's defense is obviously atrocious, that wasn't the first time the Mountaineers gained 300+ yds over land in a game this season. In fact, they are averaging 220 yards rushing per game this year and at home, over 500 YPG total.  However, I think the most encouraging sign last week was the defense holding a Texas Tech offense that had topped 50 pts five different times this year to season lows in points (26), passing yards (196) and total yards (378). The Texas' offense does not scare me at all, particularly on the road. One final note I'd like to make is that this is a double revenge spot for WVU as they've lost to UT two years in a row, but both times the Mountaineers were coming off tight games vs. TCU, one an outright win in Ft. Worth and then LY a near upset of a top 10 team. The situation is far more favorable here.  10* West Virginia

8* UNLV (10:00 ET): Cal Poly projects to be a player in the Big West this season, but this isn't a conference game to open the season and quite frankly, I think the line is way too low.  UNLV has underachieved the last couple of years under HC Dave Rice, but should be much better this season as it's the most talented Rebels team in years. Last year, they closed the regular season on a nice 11-2 ATS run & three of their MWC losses were to champ San Diego State by a combined 11 pts.  This year's team has one of the best big men in the country in Stephen Zimmerman, Jr, who some are comparing to the NBA's Greg Monroe. I say lay the points here.

UNLV does not have an easy non-conference slate. They play UCLA, Oregon, Arizona and Wichita State to name a few, so a blowout win on Opening Night seems like a necessity. While the Rebels will be "stepping up" (to face the bigger Pac 12 teams) in the coming weeks, it's their opponent stepping up here and the Mustangs simply haven't performed well in the past against the Mountain West, going 2-11-1 ATS the L14 games against the conference, including 0-4 the L3 seasons.  They have lost all 14 games straight up. Out West, it's a pretty simple pecking order:  Pac 12 > Mountain West > Big West.  For a team from the better conference to only be laying single digits, on its home floor, it seems like a steal. Especially when you consider UNLV is on a 31-6 SU/23-14 ATS run as a favorite.

Cal Poly only won 13 games a year ago and had its fair share of issues on offense, averaging just 60.4 PPG for the season.  On the road, that number got even lower and they really struggled to put the ball in the hoop down the stretch, averaging only 52.4 PPG the final five games (all losses).  They should struggle here as well against a UNLV team that allowed just 59.1 PPG at home last season.  Four times in conference play last season, the Mustangs failed to score even 50 points.  Yes, they return their top five scorers from 2014-15, but I'm not sure that will be enough to compete when stepping up in class, particularly w/ the team looking to adjust its pace of play this season.  8* UNLV

10* Mississippi State (9:00 ET):  Mississippi State did not finish last season strong as they went just 3-8 SU from February 1st on and that ended up costing former HC Rick Ray his job.  In steps Ben Howland, who is a wonderful hire here despite the bitter taste from the way things ended for him at UCLA.  Howland inherits a pretty talented team here in Starkville and brings in top recruit Malik Newman, who some are projecting to be an All-American candidate in his freshman season.  The Bulldogs had a losing ATS record last year, but were better than their SU record showed as half of the team's losses came by six points or less. I look for them to start the season w/ a big win over Eastern Washington, who is making a long and tough trip here.  Lay the points.

Howland has already changed the mood around Starkville and the team has yet to even take the floor.  Recruiting is going well for next season and this year's team could end up finishing #2 in the SEC (behind Kentucky obviously).  Some may take this line is putting "the cart before the horse," (MSU has been favored only 11x the L2 seasons and LY was asked to lay DD only 3x), but I do not.  Howland has four starters back, three of them seniors, so this is a veteran-laden team.  Their backcourt projects to be very good w/ Newman and last year's leading scorer Craig Sword.

As for Eastern Washington, they were in the NCAA Tournament last year, but must replace their leading scorer Tyler Harvey, who didn't just lead the team, but the entire nation w/ 22.9 points per game!  That's clearly a big void to fill. I've seen them projected outside the top 200 teams in the country, which is a scary thought for taking their act out East so early in the season.  The Eagles did not play a single opponent the caliber of Mississippi State last year, save for Georgetown in the Big Dance and the result there was a 10-point loss on a neutral floor.  There will be growing pains early in the season for EWU and this certainly has the potential to be their worst loss of the entire season.  They allowed 77.2 PPG away from home last year. 10* Mississippi State

8* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET):  It's still really early in the season, so we can still find a ton of value in some situations as oddsmakers scramble to gain a proper read on some of these teams. One such situation presents itself tonight and surprisingly it's with a team being asked to lay double digits. Oklahoma City might be w/o Kevin Durant right now, but they certainly won't need his services to get by lowly Philadelphia, who is now the league's only winless team and struggling to even remain competitive on a nightly basis. The 76ers' rating isn't nearly low enough right now as they should prob be a DD dog to almost every team, at least on the road.  This line should be closer to -19 according to my own power ratings! Lay the points.

The Thunder are no strangers to being without Durant.  He missed a total of 55 games last year, which is why they ended up missing the playoffs.  The good news, if you can call it that, is they should be used to this.  Philadelphia should certainly provide little in the way of resistance as well as they've lost all eight games by an average of 13.6 PPG.  Their last two games saw them lose by a combined 39 points and both were at home.  OKC, admittedly w/ Durant, comes off B2B 20+ pt wins over Phoenix & Washington. Not only are the Sixers an astounding 0-33 SU as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points the last three seasons, but they have a losing ATS record in the situation, including 4-11 vs. the number when priced between +12.5 and +15.

Look for Enes Kanter's offensive numbers to go up immediately.  He averaged 18.7 PPG w/ Durant out of the lineup last season.  But obviously it will be Russell Westbrook shouldering the load.  He comes off his first triple-double of the season Wednesday & was one of three Thunder players to score 20+ against the Wizards, none of them named "Durant."  OKC has scored 249 points its L2 games and that's bad news for a Philly squad that averages only 92.9 PPG and is coming off its worst defensive performance of the season as well (allowed 119 pts to Toronto).  They are dealing w/ a ton of injuries right now, including Nerlens Noel's wrist.  Look for a blowout here. 8* Oklahoma City

8* Cleveland (7:35 ET): While my own personal power rankings don't suggest that this is necessarily a great value play, nor does the fact the Cavs failed to cover a 10.5-pt spot at home against the Knicks earlier in the year (won by only 10), I'm going to lay the points here. LeBron and company have failed to cover five in a row after opening 3-0 ATS (underdogs twice), but were asked to lay double digits three times during that stretch.  New York has been competitive (4-4 SU) and did lead the Cavaliers 46-38 at the half, in Cleveland, back on November 4th.  However, they are off a tough loss (buzzer-beater waved off) Wednesday in Charlotte and that might be difficult to overcome. The Cavs are in line for a big win. 

Cleveland has played an admittedly weak schedule to this point, but has done so short-handed. They pulled out an impressive 118-114 home win over Utah on Tuesday, an offensive performance that is quite impressive when you consider that the Jazz lead the league defensively in terms of points per game allowed (90.0).  Taking the floor w/ exactly two days rest has been a profitable situation for these Cavaliers the past three seasons, going 17-10 against the spread.  This team has shot 50% or better from the floor in three of its last five games and James has been just as efficient as ever. Even w/o Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert, this is a deeper team than last year and not as reliant on LeBron. Kevin Love, in particular, has played well. He has B2B 22-point games and Mo Williams has been a nice addition as well.

The Knicks have had their share of issues in the fourth quarter, getting outscored 26-17 by the Cavs in the first meeting and then 26-14 by Charlotte in a two-point loss Wednesday.  As a team, they have yet to shoot 50% or better in any game this season and were a woeful 27% in the 4Q vs. the Hornets.  After opening 2-1 SU, New York has dropped four of six w/ its two wins, one of them at home against the Lakers, coming by a combined six points.  They are a woeful 33-53 ATS at home the L3 seasons, including 3-10 as a dog of 3.5 to 6 points. Lay the points.  8* Cleveland

8* Boston (7:35 ET):  The Celtics let me down on Wednesday by losing here at home to Indiana, 102-91 as 3.5-pt favorites. Perhaps it was the fact they were playing in the second night of a back to back, but Boston fell into an early hole (trailed by 8 after 1Q) and never really recovered. However, it's not like they didn't have an opportunity to come back. It certainly didn't help that they shot a woeful 4 of 24 from three-point range, plus they missed 7 of 19 free throw attempts in the third quarter alone.  I expect a bounce back type performance tonight.  Atlanta, though off a win Weds vs. New Orleans and 8-2 SU for the season, should not be favored here according to my personal power rankings. Take the points.

The Hawks were a victim of the public betting the number up on Wednesday as they couldn't cover the number against New Orleans, who was w/o Anthony Davis. In fact, they trailed by nine at halftime and led by just one entering the fourth quarter. So, really, they never were even in position to cover against the Davis-less Pelicans.  Poor starts have been the story the past two games for Atlanta as earlier in the week they fell into a 30-point hole, at home, vs. Minnesota. Boston is the toughest opponent that the Hawks will have faced since a narrow road win over Miami.  They are just 4-7 ATS after playing three consecutive home games and have played four of their previous five at home. They are the Eastern Conference's lone unbeaten team on the road (4-0), which won't last.

I was impressed by Evan Turner's play for the Celtics Wednesday as he was thrust into the starting lineup and scored 20 points, a season-high.  Backcourt mate Isaiah Thomas, the team's leading scorer w/ 20.6 PPG, scored a season-low 14 pts however, but I'd expect better production here.  We should see improved shooting across the board for the Celtics here as the Hawks allowed the T'wolves to shoot 57.5 percent from the field.  Meanwhile, Atlanta is highly unlikely to maintain its current 104.4 points per game scoring average. These teams played two close games last year, including a Boston 89-88 win here at home. 8* Boston

6* Puck Line Columbus (7:05 ET):  Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Blue Jackets +1.5. Since opening the season w/ eight consecutive losses, the Blue Jackets have been far more competitive for new HC John Tortorella, going 4-4 w/ two of those losses coming by exactly one goal. Interestingly, Columbus is one of just four teams in the league (only one in the Eastern Conference) yet to play a game beyond regulation. Overtime, which is what we got w/ last night's PL play (on Toronto), is all we need again here. Pittsburgh has been hot (won 7 of 8), but five of the wins during that streak have been by exactly one goal and they could be "due" to drop a game. 

In fact, despite a 10-5 record, the Penguins have a goal differential of only +4.  They are off a big win, 4-3 over Montreal, on Wednesday, which was their first game back home after a four-game trek through Canada. Beating the Habs is no small feat, so the Pens could be prone to a letdown here.  That win came in a shootout, the club's third victory beyond regulation thus far, and saw them allow 38 shots to the Canadiens.  It marked Pittsburgh's first win when trailing after two periods since January of last season. Despite the strong record, the Pens' possession numbers are not great; in fact, they rank just 25th in both Corsi and Fenwick. Most surprising of all is that the team ranks just 25th in goals per game w/ 2.3.  They are also 25th on the power play.

Speaking of surprises, the Blue Jackets took three of four regular season meetings from the Penguins last year.  All of Columbus' wins this season have come on the road.  This is a team that was in position to win Tuesday night at home vs. Vancouver, but they gave up three third period goals, thereby nullifying a 45-30 edge in shots.  Goaltending continues to be an issue (29th in goals allowed), but you have to imagine that Sergei Bobrovsky is going to start playing better. He has a solid 2.98 goals against average his L7 regular season starts vs. Pittsburgh. The Jackets actually rank higher in both Corsi & Fenwick than the Penguins.  6* Puck Line Columbus (+1.5)

8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET):  The Clips failed to cover the spread yet again last night, this time losing the game outright (in Dallas).  That made me happy as I was on the Mavs, who were taking a generous +7 in an emotional game for them because of the DeAndre Jordan situation.  Seeing as they'd already beaten the Mavs earlier in the year, the game likely wasn't as big of a deal for Los Angeles.  Unrested, LA is undervalued tonight visting Phoenix, who is off B2B losses, the most recent coming by 21 points at Oklahoma City on Sunday. I went against the Suns in that one and will do the same here as I think the Clips are far more likely to turn around their early season ATS woes. They're the far better team.

Overall, the Clippers have failed to cover five of the last six games. But they've been a "medium-sized" favorite or higher in all of those non-covers. (The one ATS win came as an underdog in a loss at Golden State.)  They were nine-point home favorites over Phoenix (won by six) back on 11.2, which at the time had them at 4-0 straight up. They did build a lead as big as 11 points in beating the Suns for an eighth straight time. With lower lines, the Clippers are not only 4-0 straight up, but 4-0 against the spread their L4 games in Phoenix. Both of last season's wins here came by double digits. 

I'm not really worried about the Clips being in the second game of a back to back as they've gone 24-14 straight up in that situation the L3 years! Also, they are 29-9 SU when coming off a SU loss as a favorite. Last night saw them outshot 55.3 percent (season-worst FG% allowed) to 43.0 percent, so the fact they still kept the game close should be taken as a really positive sign. Three-point shooting and rebounding have been two problems for the Clips this season, but last night they were an encouraging 12 of 27 from behind the arc and they also won the rebounding battle for the first time all season. Phoenix has conceded 119 rebounds its last two games and are allowing opponents to shoot 41.8% from three-point range here at home.  Lay the points.  8* LA Clippers

10* Over Devils/Blackhawks (8:35 ET):  Defending Stanley Cup champion Chicago opened the season by going 7-0-3 Under their first 10 games, but since then there's been a drastic turnaround w/ five straight Overs. I've been on two of those, one of them a wild 6-5 loss to St. Louis which cashed in the first period! I was a bit luckier Sunday as they hosted Edmonton and a very late goal sent the game Over the 5.5 goal total. In between those two games was a 4-2 loss to these Devils in New Jersey. The total for that game was 4.5 as it was in the Devils' last game, a 2-0 loss to the Blues. I think that's crazy as I've seen too many NJ games fly Over the total already this year and even w/ the total now at 5.0, the value here is on the Over.

Chicago comes in averaging 3.8 goals per game their L5, so they are certainly capable of doing most of the "heavy lifting" for us here. I've made this point before, but it always seems as if they do a much better job of putting the puck on net here at home. That said, they only had 28 shots on goal against the Oilers. They had only 29 in the loss at New Jersey, a number which I fully expect to go up here.  Playing on home ice w/ a total of 5 goals or less, the Blackhawks are 21-12 Over the total.  That game against the Devils on Friday marked the only time in the last five games that the 'Hawks failed to score at least four times.

New Jersey is pretty much regarded as one of the worst offensive teams in the league, which is why totals are always so low for their games. But they'd scored four goals in B2B wins over Chicago and Vancouver prior to being shut out Tuesday in St. Louis.  Shot totals have not been great recently, but fortunately Chicago is allowing an average of 31.2 its last five games. Corey Crawford has a poor 3.68 goals against average those last five games. For the Devils, Corey Schneider has been solid, but has a 3.06 career GAA vs. Chicago.  The team's penalty killing unit has been alarmingly good of late, going 18 for 19 the last seven games. That's due to regress given their overall rating on the PK (14th). I expect plenty of goals here tonight. 10* Over Devils/Blackhawks

8* NY Jets (8:25 ET):  Betting for this game has come in fairly evenly and I suppose it's easy to understand why. The narrative here will be that these are two evenly matched division rivals hoping to make the playoffs.  At the start of the season, I viewed these teams pretty similarly myself. However, after eight games, that's changed and my own power rankings indicate that the Jets should probably be favored by closer to a touchdown than a field goal.  Therefore, with the actual number here dipping below the key number, all the value is on the home team in my opinion. They also have the added motivation of double revenge (lost both meetings LY) and are just 1-4 SU/ATS L5 vs. the Bills.  Lay the points.

Perhaps it was the impressive nature of Buffalo's 33-17 win over Miami last week that has some leaning towards them here. But let us not forget that they were coming off a bye and playing at home. Here, it's a short week and they're on the road.  This is just the third "true" road game of the season for the Bills and the first of three in a row that will likely determine their season's fate. As a road dog of three points or less, they are just 1-4 SU/ATS the L3 seasons and they barely beat Tennessee (outgained 276-219) earlier this year. Let us also not forget that this Bills team lost in London to the Jaguars. A major difference between this week and last is that Buffalo is highly unlikely to be as effective running the ball here as they were against the Dolphins. The Jets' defense, 4th overall in yards per game allowed, is #1 against the run by a wide margin as it allows just 80.6 YPG. 

The Jets do have injury concerns and were a little fortunate to squeak by Jacksonville last week as the Jags turned it over four times in a 28-23 final.  But, remember that this Jets team outgained each of its first six opponents this year. They might be coming off B2B ATS losses, but in one of the games (Oakland) they were actually favored on the road and then last week was the most points they'd been asked to lay in a game all season. At the quarterback position, I'll take Ryan Fitzpatrick (and his beard) over Tyrod Taylor.  I didn't want to spend much time discussing Rex Ryan (who's act is growing tired) in this space, but the Jets' players should obviously be fired up to face their former coach. The Bills have not won B2B games all season and are 0-3 ATS off a win.    8* NY Jets

8* Puck Line Toronto (8:05 ET):  Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Maple Leafs +1.5. "Not good" would be an apropos way to describe the state of this long-suffering franchise right now, but they are coming off a surprising 3-2 win in Dallas Tuesday night. That marked their third consecutive game decided by one goal. Possession numbers have long been Toronto's Achilles' heel, but are up this year (8th in Corsi, 6th in Fenwick), which has to be taken as a real "step forward" despite the ugly-looking 3-8-4 WL record. Nashville, who has allowed 4+ goals in four of their last five games, really "owes" me one after rallying back from an early 3-1 hole to defeat Ottawa 7-5 on Tuesday.

With one exception, the Leafs have fallen back into their "old habit" of allowing a ton of shots on goal recently. They allowed 38 in the win at Dallas Tuesday, but the surprisingly good play of James Reimer has made up for the defensive deficiencies. Reimer has posted a 1.96 goals against average his L5 starts w/ a save percentage above .930! Nashville figures to pepper him quite a bit, given that they come in averaging 36.6 shots per game their L5, but I'm banking on Reimer being up to the challenge.  Note that all three of Toronto's wins this year have come w/ him between the pipes.

Nashville probably won't score more goals in a game the rest of the way after tallying seven in a wild, back and forth game w/ Ottawa Tuesday. The offensive numbers have looked nice recently, but goaltending has become a major concern. Pekka Rinne stopped only 21 of the 26 shots he saw against the Senators, dropping his save percentage to .866 the L4 games. Again, this team has allowed a total of 19 goals its last five games. It took seven goals for them to pull off their first multi-goal victory since October 22nd.  They are 25-32 after allowing 4+ goals their previous game the L3 seasons and just 19-22 off a win by two or more goals.  8* Puck Line Toronto (+1.5)

10* Miami (7:35 ET): I would much rather watch this game than Golden State-Minnesota tonight on TNT as my power rankings actually suggest this is a matchup of top eight teams in the league! However, it's a tough spot for the visiting Jazz, who two nights ago played a very tough game in Cleveland and came up just four points shy against the favored Cavaliers. They allowed a season-high 118 points in that one and while the Heat may not have LeBron James anymore, they can play defense. In fact, these teams actually rank 1-2 in the league in points per game allowed w/ Utah at 89.7 and Miami at 90.1.  The key here though is that the Heat are at home and coming off a much easier game (against the Lakers) on Tuesday. Lay the points.

Utah's loss in Cleveland carried an additional cost in that starting center Rudy Gobert injured his ankle and he may not play here. Losing his 3.4 blocks per game would be huge considering the Jazz will have to deal w/ the Heat's own shot-blocker extraordinaire, Hassan Whiteside, who is averaging 3.9 blocks/game to go along w/ solid averages of 15.3 points and 11.4 rebounds per game. Miami's worst defensive effort of the season also came against Cleveland, but they allowed "only" 102 points to the Cavaliers. Since that time, they've kept five of six opponents to 90 points or less, all of those games staying Under the total. The O/U line is very low here and that's a good thing for the Heat as they are 5-1 ATS L3 seasons at home when the total is in the 180 to 184.5-point range.

Miami may have missed the playoffs last season, but this is a much improved team this year. Some of that is health as Chris Bosh is back and coming off a season-high 30 points Tuesday. Whiteside's emergence is clearly the driving force on the defensive end. But the fact that Justice Winslow somehow fell to them in the draft was an absolute steal.  The numbers suggest that it is when Winslow is on the court that the Heat are at their best defensively. Again, I think Utah left it all on the floor in Cleveland and it's going to be tough for them to play at that level in B2B road games. All five of the Heat's victories this season have been by double digits. 10* Miami

10* UL Lafayette (7:30 ET):  There's been a drastic line move for this one and I'm not entirely sure why. South Alabama (now favored) is not very good at all & probably the worst .500 team in the entire country. They've failed to cover four of their last five, including last week (w/ the benefit of bye) against an awful Idaho team that was coming off a loss to previously winless New Mexico State. The Jaguars had to rally back from an early 24-0 1H deficit in that one w/ B2B non-offensive touchdowns (kick return, fumble return) being the difference maker. The Jags were outgained by the Vandals, 494-400, and out "first downed" (27-19) for the game. I believe the wrong team is favored here.  Take the points. 

Now, similarly, the Ragin Cajuns were outgained in a victory on Saturday and have struggled at the betting window. They have actually been outgained in B2B victories over rival LA Monroe and Georgia State that came by a combined eight points. However, they do have the better conference record here w/ their only Sun Belt loss coming at Jonesboro to Arkansas State by 10 (were 6.5-pt dogs). South Alabama lost, here at home, to Arkansas State by 18 points. The Ragin Cajuns also beat a Texas State team (by 22 pts) that beat the Jags by 18.  So, in terms of results vs. common opponents, a major advantage goes to UL Lafayette here. They also beat USA, 19-9, as seven-point chalk last season. 

The home team has won all three meetings between these two, but we should certainly anticipate a higher-scoring game compared to LY as this South Alabama defense is allowing a frightening 36.6 points per game. Over their last three games, they've allowed 130 points!  Because of that, we should also expect the trend of the home team dominating to come to an end. South Alabama has failed as a favorite each of the L2 wks, including the outright 18-pt loss to Texas State and has yet to cover a game as chalk against a FBS opponent this season.  So, again, this line move was unwarranted in my opinion. UL Lafayette almost beat Kentucky in its season opener, easily covering as a 16.5-point dog. They are 6-1 ATS their L7 games where the line is three points or less. 10* UL Lafayette

6* Anaheim (10:05 ET):  Edmonton has not won since losing star rookie Connor McDavis for the foreseeable future and they are not likely to draw any sympathy here from the Ducks, who have struggled more than expected this season themselves. Monday saw Anaheim blow an early 2-0 lead here on home ice against lowly Arizona, a game where they outshot the 'Yotes 36-28, only for an inexcusable giveaway in OT to cost them.  I'm actually not that surprised to see the Ducks struggling in the early going, given the tremendous amount of "puck luck" that went their way last season, but the Oilers are a team that's simply not on their "same level" (especially w/o McDavid).  

Anaheim could not find the back of the net at the start of the season, but that's changed somewhat in November as they are averaging a relatively healthy 3.0 goals per contest. That's actually slightly behind what Edmonton is averaging in its last five games, but that includes three games w/ McDavid where they scored 12 goals. In the two games since, the Oilers have scored a total of just three times. They've been especially lucky in division games so far, averaging 3.2 goals despite only 25.7 shots per game.  Last season, they lost all four games to the Ducks, never putting more than 27 shots on net. Overall, they have lost 21 of 25 games in this Pacific Division rivalry, including six straight in Anaheim. The most goals the Oilers have scored in their L9 visits here is two.

Ducks' goalie Frederik Andersen has a 1.50 goals against average his L4 starts vs. Edmonton and hadn't allowed more than two goals in four overall starts prior to Monday. He figures to be back between the pipes tonight and has an impressive .929 save percentage for the year.  The Oilers were held scoreless until the third period Sunday in Chicago and whichever goaltender they choose for tonight isn't a great option as Cam Talbot has really struggled so far (.893 save percentage) and I cannot see Anders Nilsson maintaining a .953 save percentage (small sample size!) on the road. 6* Anaheim

10* Dallas (8:05 ET):  This is another early season revenge game (for the Mavs) and it's a national TV game against the team that "stole" DeAndre Jordan from them over the summer to boot. Yes, I went against Mark Cuban's, pardon me, Rick Carlisle's team last night in New Orleans, but that was a desperate and winless Pelicans team I was playing there. I even cited the potential for a Mavs' look ahead to tonight.  Retaining the services of Jordan in the offseason was clearly a win for the Clippers at the expense of the Mavs, and they drew "first blood" on the court w/ a 104-88 win at Staples Center back on October 29th. Don't think for a second that any of this is lost on the Mavs' players, who I think are being severely undervalued here at home tonight. Take the points.

In that first meeting, Dallas was playing w/o rest as is the case here as well. But, the difference is that the Mavs were coming off a SU/ATS win (over Phoenix, which I cashed in on!) prior to that first meeting.  Last night, they fell into too big of a hole to climb out of (trailed 12-0 out of the gate) and were down by as many as 23 in the second half.  At that point, I have to believe their thoughts turned to tonight.  This team clearly is not what it once was and will have to fight just to make the playoffs this year. But I can't imagine that a fifth double digit loss is in the cards, particularly because they're unlikely to shoot as poorly here as they did last night (5 of 20 from 3-pt range) or in the first matchup w/ the Clippers (36.1 percent overall).  Also, the Mavs have not been a home underdog of this size even once over the past three seasons.

Meanwhile, the Clips are just 2-7 ATS as road faves of 6.5 to 9 points and have failed to cover four of five games overall since beating the Mavs.  All four ATS losses came as favorites, including just a two-point win at home over Memphis Monday night as seven-point chalk. This will be just their third road game of the season and it's the front end of a back to back (at Phoenix tomm night).  All of Los Angeles' games this season, save for the win over Dallas, have been decided by seven points or less. 10* Dallas

8* New Orleans (8:05 ET):  This is yet another early season revenge spot and I've made the decision to "roll with" the Pelicans with or without Anthony Davis. Of course, I was on them last night as they picked up their first win of the season, 120-105 over Dallas. Encouraging is that they did so w/ Davis sitting out the entire second half and the rest of the team was even able to extend the lead (as high as 23 points) w/ him in the locker room.  Davis playing tonight would obviously be a great benefit, but if he doesn't, we'll just be able to get a better line.  Take the points.

New Orleans lost to Atlanta on Friday, 121-115 at home, despite Davis going for a career-high 43 points. Including last night, the Pelicans have now scored 115 points in regulation three times this season, yet are only 1-6 SU/ATS, which is crazy. It's often said that teams playing in the second night of a back to back are undervalued and you can certainly make that case here considering Atlanta was only an 8.5-point home favorite to what I still consider to be an inferior (compared to New Orleans) Minnesota squad on Monday and the Hawks lost that game, 117-107 after trailing by as many as 30! It's not as if the Pelicans were taken down to the wire last night either; they led 12-0 out of the gate and never trailed.  Yes, there's injuries here, but the team is in a good position to cash tonight.

Atlanta had won seven in a row prior to losing to the T'wolves Monday night, but this will be the most points they've been asked to lay in any game this season.  Four of their wins during the now-ended winning streak came by six points or less.  New Orleans remains desperate as they cannot afford to fall too far behind in a very tough Western Conference. The Hawks were expected to take a step back this season, coming off a 60-win campaign in 2014-15. Kent Bazemore really hasn't done a good job filling in for the departed DeMarre Carroll and it really does speak volumes that the team trailed Minnesota by that many points. When New Orleans visited Phillips Arena last season, they were only a 2.5-point dog, so there's value for you right there. 8* New Orleans

8* Buffalo (8:00 ET): Checking the current betting percentages on this matchup, it does not appear as if the public is giving underdog Buffalo much of a shot here, but that's a mistake in my opinion as this is a clear letdown spot for Northern Illinois coming off their biggest win of the season (last Tuesday at Toledo).  The Huskies again reasserted their MAC West dominance w/ a 32-27 upset as seven-point road dogs (I had Under 62!) and are now in the driver's seat to play in their 6th consecutive MAC Championship Game. They have gone an insane 42-3 SU in conference play during that time, including a 17-1 run in road games, but did lose away from home earlier this season at Central Michigan.  I really wouldn't want to lay this many points against a Buffalo team that's really played only one bad game all season. 

That one bad game for Buffalo (and sadly I was on them) came at Central Michigan as they fell 51-14 coming off their bye week. The Bulls turned the ball over four times in that one, but the following week saw them "flip the script" forcing four turnovers of their own in a 41-17 win over Ohio where they were actually outgained 422-373. They've since won B2B road games, albeit not very convincingly, against Miami and Kent State. I went against them two weeks ago (and won) and then last week they needed to rally from 11 down to defeat Kent, scoring the GW TD in the final minute. Still though, this is a team that covered here at home against MAC East leader Bowling Green (lost 28-22 as 7.5-pt dogs). They are 11-5 SU/10-6 ATS at home the L3 seasons. The Bulls have never beaten NIU in seven tries, but certainly remember the last time they hosted them (2011) when they rallied back from a 21-pt deficit, only to miss the potential game-tying XP. 

Again, this play is more about situation than schematics as Northern Illinois finds itself in a massive letdown spot.  Very rarely do the Huskies find themselves as underdogs in MAC play, but they were last week and actually got outgained (ever so slightly) 427-401 by Toledo.  Incredibly, NIU was able to pull off the win despite trailing virtually the entire game (took first lead w/ GW TD in the final two minutes) and losing its starting QB and WR to injury! Quarterback Drew Hare is now done for the season, leaving a freshman (Ryan Graham) to start in his place.  With the MAC West Title likely being decided next Wednesday when NIU hosts Western Michigan, this is a sandwich game for a team playing w/o its starting QB, on the road.  Take the points.  8* Buffalo

10* Western Michigan (8:00 ET): My own power ratings may have Bowling Green as the top team in the MAC currently, but they also have WMU not far behind in the third position (Toledo #2) and w/ this game taking place in Kalamazoo, I think the Broncos are a great value plus the points.  Last year, PJ Fleck's team handed BGSU a 26-14 defeat (on the road), which was the Falcons' only regular season conference loss LY when they were not resting starters. Western Michigan was a 2-pt dog in that spot, so again, taking a field goal here at home makes them seem like a great value.  Especially because they've beaten BGSU four straight times overall.  The Falcons may be unbeaten in MAC play and flying high, but this is their toughest opponent since hosting Memphis (lost) back in September. Take the points.

Bowling Green is likely favored here because they are off four consecutive wins by 24 or more points and they've won six in a row overall since beating a team from the Big 10, Purdue. The last three wins have come by margins of 49, 48 and 38 pts. However, it's been a weak slate of MAC foes during that time and I still have legitimate concerns about their leaky defense. Even in last Wednesday's 62-24 blowout of Ohio, the Falcons surrendered 543 total yards and 34 first downs. Two Ohio turnovers, one an INT that was returned for a TD, swung the game dramatically in BGSU's favor. Speaking of turnovers, BGSU is +10 in that department the L5 games, which seems unsustainable. Defense was a major issue in their two losses, to Memphis and Tennessee, as they gave up 103 points and over 1100 total yards!

Western Michigan is an opponent that, like BGSU, can put plenty of points on the board (47.4 PPG in conf play). The Broncos come off one of the most dominating performances of the entire College Football season as they outgained Ball State 711-152 in a 54-7 beatdown. It was the second straight game WMU scored 50+ points and they come in outscoring foes by an average of 18 PPG (41.2 to 23.2) here at home this season w/ their only loss here coming in the opener at the hands of Michigan State. For the record, Bowling Green is allowing 434.2 YPG defensively. They have benefited tremendously from a weak MAC slate that has seen them face all Eastern Division opponents (weaker of two MAC divisions). Since the start of last year, the Falcons are 9-0 SU vs. the MAC East, but 0-4 SU/ATS vs. the tougher West (4-11 L15).  There is just no way that the road team should be favored in this particular matchup as WMU is 16-6 ATS overall the L2 seasons. They haven't lost a conference game either and two of their three losses came at the hands of National Title contenders (Ohio St, Michigan St).  10* Western Michigan

8* Boston (7:35 ET):  Last week, these teams played in Indiana and I took the Pacers as a two-point home dog (citing value) in an eventual 100-98 win and cover. Since then, Frank Vogel's team has remained perfect ATS this month (5-0) to increase its November run to 25-8 ATS the L3 seasons. However, it's a "role reversal" here as this time the value is on the revenge-minded Celtics laying a short number at home. Granted, they had to play Tuesday (beat Milwaukee 99-83 on the road), but Indiana is playing for a third time in four nights, thus likely being the more fatigued unit as Boston hadn't played since Friday prior to last night's 'W.'  Final result aside, if the Celtics were favored on the road against the Pacers the last time, it stands to reason they should be favored by more here at home. Lay the number.

Though they found themselves in an early 10-point hole, it ended up being a close, back & forth game for the Celtics when they played the Pacers last week. The game wasn't decided until a pair of Monta Ellis' free throws in the final 13 seconds and Boston did have the final shot (missed). They held Indiana to only 38.5% shooting (a season-best defensively), but turnovers and rebounding were the stories as the Celts coughed it up a season-worst 19 times in that game and were outscored 24-11 in second-chance points. Indiana was actually the one playing at home and w/o rest last Weds, so the shoe is really "on the other foot" here. Injuries are a bit of a concern for Boston right now, but they managed to turn in another strong effort on the defensive end last night, holding the Bucks to only 83 points. That was their second straight double digit victory as they blew out Washington (by 20) here at home on Friday. 

Indiana's only loss in November came by four points in Cleveland, so no shame there, plus they responded by becoming the first team this season to cover against Orlando w/ a 97-84 home win (as 4-pt home faves) on Monday. That was just the second time this season that the Pacers were favored and tonight marks just their third road game. Two of their four wins have been by three points or less, so had those results gone the other way, we'd be talking about this team in a very different way right now.  The Celtics are an incredibly profitable 27-10 ATS when playing in the second game of a back to back. 8* Boston

10* Over Leafs/Stars (8:35 ET): This is a huge mismatch on paper w/ Dallas' high-powered attack (3.6 goals per game) going up against a Toronto team that has long had a propensity to give up plenty of goals. Not surprisingly, the Maple Leafs are 25th in the league in goals allowed so far (3.0 per game), but it is a little disappointing to see them rank just 28th in scoring themselves (2.1 per game), especially because they are averaging a solid 30.0 shots per game on the season. Tonight, however, has the potential to be one of the more wide open and high scoring games of the entire NHL season. Take the Over.

The Stars are just 9-6 Over this season, even though in 9 of their last 12 games they've scored at least four goals on their own. The Over is 5-1 Over in their home games, however, and this is their first time playing at American Airlines Center since a 5-3 win over San Jose on Halloween.  That capped a four-game homestand where at least seven total goals were scored in every game. This team's top line is making a case for being the best in the league as Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn and Patrick Sharp have combined for an incredible 25 goals and 56 points.  Somehow, despite a 44-26 edge in shots, Dallas was held to only one goal when they traveled to Toronto earlier this month. That 4-1 loss represents not only their lowest scoring output of the season, but its their only setback over the L8 games. Dallas' power play is second in the league at 29.2 percent.

Meanwhile, that home win over the Stars represents the Leafs' ONLY victory over their L10 games. As was projected, this is an awful team, although their overall possession numbers are much better than past seasons, at least so far.  James Reimer has been admirable between the pipes the L4 games (1.96 goals against average), but I don't see him keeping it up.  Certainly not against this offense. He made 43 saves on November 2nd at home, but I'd say a repeat performance is highly unlikely. As for the Toronto offense, expect them to pick it up whether they face Antti Niemi (3.43 GAA L5 starts) or Kari Lehtonen (8 goals allowed L2 starts vs. Leafs).  10* Over Leafs/Stars

10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): As we enter the third week of the NBA season, three teams are still winless. Two are Philadelphia and Brooklyn, which is no surprise seeing as how I have that duo at the bottom of my own personal power rankings. But the other is New Orleans, a major surprise considering the Pelicans came into this year w/ a ton of hype due to Anthony Davis. Tonight marks the Pelicans' second chance at a revenge spot this year. While they failed in the first, that was against Golden State. Tonight, they host Dallas, who beat them 107-98 on Saturday after outscoring NO by 15 in the second half (65 2H points for the Mavs). Simply put, I just cannot see the Pellies continuing to lose like this & I'll call for them to bounce back here. 

Dallas, while 3-3, is also "down" this year. Coming off a year where they were near the bottom of the league in terms of ATS record, I thought there might be slight improvement there, but the bottom line is this team is definitely worse on the court. Getting left "at the altar" by DeAndre Jordan set the tone for a disappointing summer and you get the sense that this is a roster in decline. Speaking of Jordan, the Mavs get a second shot and him & the Clippers tomorrow night, in a nationally televised game, so this might be a little bit of a lookahead for them. Not so for New Orleans, however, as they are desperate to pick up that first win of the season. The Pelicans were one of the best ATS teams in the league a season ago.

The Mavs shot a season best 47.6% from the floor Saturday night, an all-too familiar story for the Pelicans, who are last in the league in points allowed. With Davis in the middle, that should not be happening.  Already twice this season, New Orleans has lost a game in which it scored 115 points in regulation!  A big part of the problem for the Pelicans has been injuries, but hopefully Jrue Holliday and his 13.0 PPG scoring average will be back in the lineup tonight (sat out Saturday). Interestingly, the Pelicans have been favored in only one game so far. Obviously, they lost it - outright - but still that at least puts the SU record in some context. Look for Davis' play to start improving and for him to lead his team to a win here. 10* New Orleans

7* Ottawa (8:05 ET):  The Senators are drastically undervalued in this spot.  They've won four of six including a win at Montreal where they closed "only" +135 on the money line. Given where the Habs are at this season, that puts the ML here into some perspective as Nashville certainly doesn't deserve more respect from the linesmakers. Especially because the Predators were just shut out 4-0 by the Blues here on home ice Saturday. Ottawa is also off a loss Saturday, at Carolina, and despite allowing a high number of shots this season, I see them as more likely to bounce back tonight. Interestingly, the Preds are 0-5 in games w/ 34+ shots and 8-0 when they have fewer than that. However, this is an early season revenge spot for the Sens as they lost 4-3 (in a shootout) back on Oct 17 when it was them finishing w/ a 41-25 edge in shots. I'm going w/ the revenge angle here.

On the flip side, it was a pretty brutal loss for Nashville Saturday as they outshot the Blues 45-28. It was the second time in three games they outshot the opponent by double digits, yet lost. Overall, the team has dropped three of its last four and is just 4 for its last 28 on the power play.  They have not been good in the past after giving up 4+ goals their last game, going 24-32 in that role the L3 seasons.  Three times in the last four games they've given up that many (all losses) as well as in half of their L10 games. Pekka Rinne has an awful .897 save percentage his L4 starts. 

Ottawa is 26-16 SU the L3 seasons when taking the ice w/ revenge for a home loss.  While their special teams have struggled in the early part of the season and they've been badly outshot the L3 games, particularly at Carolina Saturday, the goaltending has improved.  In five road starts this year, Craig Anderson is 4-1 SU w/ a .940 save percentage. Despite the relatively poor puck possession numbers, the Sens should have won Saturday as they allowed the game-tying goal w/ just four seconds remaining in regulation.  They'll bounce back here in a revenge spot.  7* Ottawa

10* Ohio (8:00 ET):  Frank Solich's Bobcats started their season off strong, opening 5-1 SU/ATS w/ the only SU loss coming in controversial fashion at Minnesota and the lone non-cover coming by just one-half point in a two pt road win at Akron. But since drubbing rival Miami 34-3 (as 15.5-pt chalk) here in Athens, the bottom has dropped out. Three straight losses by 24+ points has the team's bowl eligibility in question w/ three games to go.  With the MAC a little deeper now compared to past seasons, a 6-6 SU finish probably doesn't guarantee a postseason game (didn't for Ohio last year!), so the Bobcats' final two home games seem like "must wins" w/ the regular season finale being at Northern Illinois. I'll lay the points here.

In the interest of full disclosure, I have a pending wager on Ohio to finish Over 5 wins. So I'm counting on tonight's game being "doubly" good for me. Kent State is the opponent and while the Golden Flashes were 4-0 ATS from 2010-13 vs. the Bobcats, and on a 7-0 ATS run here at Peden Stadium, OU won LY by a score of 17-14 and it would have been a lot worse had it not been for four fumbles (outgained Kent 437-295). Like Ohio, Kent State is struggling coming into this Tuesday night affair as they've scored just 39 points total the L4 games, winning just once - 15-10 at UMass as 6.5-pt road dogs. Last Thursday was a brutal setback as they blew a 17-6 fourth quarter lead at home against Buffalo. While it's true Ohio is playing on a "short week" (last game Weds) here, Kent is having to go from Thursday to Tuesday, which is a REALLY short turnaround and has to do so on the road.

Earlier in this analysis, I mentioned Kent State's offensive woes. There have been four instances this season of them being held to 7 pts or less and just once they've scored more than 20 against an FBS foe. They're gaining fewer than 300 YPG and the number gets a lot uglier when you take out a 592 yard effort vs. Delaware State. On the road, they are averaging only 8.0 points per game and 3.5 yards per play!  Both of these teams played at Minnesota earlier in the season and both lost by a field goal.  But Kent gained just 142 total yds in their game while Ohio gained a far more respectable 345. Ohio also beat a Marshall team that Kent lost to at home.   10* Ohio

8* Over Knicks/Raptors (7:35 ET):  New York has stayed Under in four straight games while Toronto has done them "one better" w/ a 5-game Under streak. But, as these Atlantic Division rivals are set to take the court Tuesday, I have reason to believe we'll see more scoring than expected. The Raptors, once 5-0 SU/ATS before B2B SU/ATS losses, have essentially seen their scoring decrease in every game since they scored a season high 113 pts in a road win over Boston on October 30th. They "bottomed out" w/ an ugly 76-point effort at Miami Sunday and have shot below 40 percent in both losses. But back "North of the Border," the offense should pick up the pace. The Knicks opened the year by going Over in three straight, but neither they nor their opponents have broken 100 in any of the L4 games. That should change here.  Take the Over.

The Knicks have not shot the ball better than 40.7 percent in any of those L4 games. However, they have actually seen their own scoring INCREASE w/ each passing game during that stretch. They were up to 99 points in a win Sunday afternoon over the lowly Lakers. Like Toronto, this O/U line will threaten to be the lowest for the Knicks all season. The O/U line closed at 212 for the Lakers game. While that clearly has a lot to do w/ LA's own defensive ineptitude, the Raptors may be w/o their own top defender, DeMarre Carroll tonight due to plantar fascitis. Carmelo Anthony may be on pace for the worst shooting percentage of his career and rookie Kristaps Porzingis is likewise below 40 percent for the year. But I expect both to become more efficient, starting here.

Defensively, the Knicks have been surprisingly solid the L3 games, twice holding opponents below 40 percent. But it should be pointed out that while Toronto scored only 76 pts its last time out, they did have a solid 47 at halftime before a woeful second half shooting display. This is a team that topped 100 pts in each of its first five games and has regularly seen O/U lines north of 200 pts. In their only two home games this season, the Raptors have scored exactly 106 pts both times. The Over is 14-4 for them when coming off a DD loss. 8* Over Knicks/Raptors

5* Anaheim (10:00 ET):  You had to figure it would happen, sooner or later. After a dreadful start to the season, the Ducks (109 points last year) have started to turn things around w/ four consecutive wins, three of them being of the high scoring variety here at home, followed by a 1-0 shutout of division rival San Jose on Saturday. Monday is a revenge spot for one of the unfathomable five times Anaheim has been shut out themselves this season and I fully expect them to respond accordingly. They outshot the Coyotes, who are not a good team, 37-29 back on October 14th here at The Pond and I just cannot see them losing to the same bottom-feeder for a second time this season. Laying the juice is worth it in this instance.

Arizona has lost three of four, giving up four or more goals in every loss. This will be their first time playing on the road since suffering a humiliating 6-0 defeat at the hands of the Boston Bruins.  The 'Yotes' season, to this point, has somewhat been a mirror opposite of that of the Ducks, as they opened 3-0 but are 3-6-1 their L10 games overall.  A main culprit for this regression has been the poor play of goaltender Mike Smith, who has a 4.33 goals against average his L7 starts.  Smith was pulled Saturday in a 4-1 loss to the Rangers after giving up three goals in just 25 minutes. Arizona finished w/ a 40-30 edge in shots in that game, but their goaltender put them in too big of a hole to climb out of. 

Meanwhile, I have no such concerns between the pipes for Anaheim, who will likely go w/ Frederik Andersen, who has a 1.96 GAA his L3 starts. The team got a strong effort out of backup Anton Khudobin Saturday (31 saves) and now can turn to their #1 netminder, who has a career 1.16 GAA against the Coyotes.  The only issue for the Ducks has been the lack of scoring, but as pointed out above that's begun to turn around and all three times the team has scored four goals this season, it has come here on home ice. Let's also not forget just how dominant Anaheim was last year here at the Honda Center, where they turned in a 26-12-3 record.  5* Anaheim

8* Denver (9:05 ET):  Often times, you'll find a team playing in the second night of a back to back undervalued because of the expectation that they'll struggle. That's not the case here though w/ Portland, who is off a brutal loss last night. Leading Detroit by 13 pts going into the fourth quarter, at home, the Blazers were promptly outscored 41-11 over the final 12 minutes w/ the Pistons' Andre Drummond turning in one of the best single-game efforts I've seen all year (29 points, 27 rebounds).  I think it's going to be tough for Portland to overcome that defeat, on the road, w/o rest.  Denver might be a bottom tier team, but their homecourt advantage is still very real and for years they have dominated unrested visitors here at the Pepsi Center. Lay the short number.

Denver has not played since Friday when they covered a large 17-point spread (largest for any NBA game this season) at Golden State (lost by 15).  It was their fourth DD loss this season and they have yet to win at home.  The big issue in their two previous home games, both against division rivals (Minnesota, Utah), has been poor shooting. They're shot a woeful 34.1 percent overall from the floor in those two losses, a percentage which obviously is in line to go up.  This is a team that has not opened a season 0-3 at home in 13 seasons. The last time it happened was the year before they drafted Carmelo Anthony. There were signs of an impending turnaround in the second half vs. the Warriors, whom they outscored 60-45 over the final two quarters while shooting 51.1 percent.

Even though it was a loss, Portland actually shot a season-best 53.3 percent from floor last night. But that's a bad sign for tonight as they're unlikely to duplicate. Let's remember that this is a team that's had to replace four starters from last season, most notably LaMarcus Aldridge. I'm surprised to see that they've started 4-3 SU as they were projected for below 30 wins by the oddsmakers.  This is already the third time they've been asked to play back to backs and while they're 1-1 SU/ATS in the situation so far, this is the first time they have to play the second game on the road. As a road dog of three points or less, the Blazers are 6-12 ATS L3 seasons while the Nuggets are 6-3 ATS laying three or less at home. 8* Denver

10* San Diego (8:25 ET): Truth be told, this is a pretty terrible Monday night matchup of two disappointing (and banged up) teams. San Diego is 2-6, but honestly is better than that record even though I went against them last week in an early start at Baltimore. For me, the ATS result there ended up being a push as the Chargers lost by a field goal, the fifth time this season they've lost by eight or fewer points.  They've lost four in a row, all within that margin, despite actually having the edge in total yards in all four of those games! Their two wins this year may have come by only a combined eight points over Detroit & Cleveland, but tonight's opponent is in the same tier (that's to say, the bottom of the league) & West Coast teams typically have the edge in primetime games. Therefore, I'll lay the points here.

Chicago is 2-5 and similar to San Diego they really haven't been as bad as their record indicates. Outside of six predictably terrible quarters from backup QB Jimmy Clausen, they've generally been competitive. They are coming off B2B division losses, each by a field goal. Interestingly, the Bears have yet to be favored in a single game this season, so that speaks volumes about how the linesmakers view them. They enter this game w/o the services of the league's leading rusher Matt Forte, plus starting receiver Eddie Royal. I'm not sure how they account for that lost production. On defense, this team is allowing 28.9 points per game and has only 12 sacks, 8.5 of those coming from two players.

Despite now being w/o WR Keenan Allen (for the rest of the season), I still think Chargers QB Philip Rivers can have a big day here. Yes, he's operating behind a pretty awful offensive line. But I already mentioned that the Bears' pass rush simply is not "getting home" this season and Rivers comes in leading the league in passing yardage. The result is that this actually the league's top overall offense in terms of yards per game. The only "issue" is that they average just 17.7 yards per point, which means they're due to start putting more points on the board. They face a defense here that will accommodate. I also firmly believe in the so-called "Circadian advantage" West Coast teams have in primetime (look it up!), even though the Bolts did lose earlier this year at home on MNF vs. Pittsburgh (should have won!).  10* San Diego

10* Under Bulls/76ers (7:05 ET): Well, all the "goodwill" that Chicago may have built up as as result of their impressive, Derrick-Rose led 104-98 win over Oklahoma City Thursday quickly went away w/ an embarrassing 102-93 home loss (in OT) to Minnesota (as 9.5-pt chalk) Saturday night. They've alternated wins and losses, or rather losses and wins, their L5 games (2-3 SU) including a really bad loss (by 25 pts) at Charlotte. So, there are no guarantees as they visit league-worst Philadelphia Monday. That being said, I can't really endorse the 76ers either in this spot; certainly not after this winless bunch failed to cash Saturday night here at home in what looked to be a pretty decent spot against unrested Orlando. Instead, I'm on the total. Take the Under.

These teams played three times last season and all three games went Over the total. The last four meetings between the two here in Philly have also all gone Over. So, history may not be on our side, but the number are as twice in 2014-15, the O/U line was sub-190.0.   Playing on the road when the O/U line falls into the 195 to 199.5 point range, the Bulls are 10-4 Under the L3 seasons. The Sixers are 17-9 Under as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points. Chicago scored only 93 points in an OT game their last time out, though depending on your point of view, that looks better/worse when you consider they didn't score a single point in overtime.  Philadelphia has been held under 100 points in all games this year except when facing Cleveland (interesting), including twice under 90. 

I expect Chicago to rediscover its defensive identity Monday after giving up 100+ to the T'wolves. Again, that was just a 93-93 game at the end of regulation, however.  In three of their first four games, all against conference opponents, the Bulls held the opposition under 100 pts. Only one time this year have they allowed their opponent to shoot above 45 percent from the floor.  Philly comes in averaging only 92 PPG while shooting a pretty ugly 42.8 percent overall. The key here will be the Sixers' defense, which again outside of the two Cleveland games has been pretty decent. No other opponent has shot better than 47 percent against them. 10* Under Bulls/76ers

10* Over Eagles/Cowboys (8:30 ET):  Back in Week 2, these teams played one of the worst games of the entire season. Though Dallas won 20-10, at Philadelphia, you'd have to consider them "the ultimate loser" given that was the game they lost Tony Romo to injury and they haven't won since.  Whether it's been Brandon Weeden or Matt Cassel under center for America's Team, the results have been the same the L5 weeks. They did cover last week, here at home vs. Seattle, but scored only 12 points and gained just over 200 total yards in an abysmal passing effort from Cassel. It was the second time in three weeks that the offense failed to score a touchdown. Philadelphia is a surprising 6-1 Under this season, but off a bye, and there's a ton of value here considering the O/U line for that first meeting was 53. Take the Over.

This will almost certainly close as the lowest O/U line for any Eagles game to date. So far, the majority of their games this season have seen 43 or more total points scored (all but three). The first matchup w/ Dallas set the low benchmark, but there's plenty of reason to believe the Philadelphia offense will perform far better here. For starters, they gained a pathetic seven yards rushing in Week 2. Over the L3 games, they have been better committed to the ground game and the result has been an average of 172.7 rushing yards per game.  Also, not many teams have more drops this year than the Eagles' 18 and the result of that has been a poor third down percentage that ranks near the bottom of the league. That statistic is both variable and fixable. This Dallas defense isn't very good as it's allowing 5.8 yards per play this season. Coming off the bye, we should see dramatic improvement from this Eagles offense compared to what we saw vs. Carolina (much better defense) and certainly from what we saw in the first meeting w/ Dallas.

The Eagles defense has actually been the strength of the team to this point in the season. But they're doing it w/ a lot of "smoke and mirrors," namely turnovers, which they've feasted off the L3 weeks w/ 10. But outside of two games, they've allowed 350+ yards every time out.  The Dallas offense does have Dez Bryant back now (huge plus) and of course has the best offensive line in the league. As bad as Cassel has looked so far, he has the pieces in place to move the ball here. There were four 10+ play drives LW vs. Seattle, three of them ending in the red zone. Had those resulted in touchdowns, not field goals, we would be perceiving this Cowboys' offense much differently right now. Four of the last five meetings in this NFC East rivalry have gone Under, but all had a O/U line north of 50 points, so we're "due" for an Over here. 10* Over Eagles/Cowboys

10* Over Oilers/Blackhawks (8:05 ET):  In Chicago's first 10 games of the season, the Under was 7-0-3.  Since that time, the Over has cashed in each of their last four games. They've lost three of those games, giving up 17 goals total. They had scored 13 goals themselves in the first three, before losing 4-2 at New Jersey on Friday. Here at home, they should bounce back on the offensive end. That's because their possession numbers and shot totals are usually strong here at the "Madhouse on Madison." Over the L5 games overall, the Stanley Cup Champs are averaging 34.9 shots per game. Take the Over.

Edmonton is of course now w/o Connor McDavid, a crippling blow. They lost their first game w/o the top overall draft choice, 2-1 to Pittsburgh on Friday (I had the Pens!) after scoring exactly four goals in three straight games.  On the road, the Oilers are giving up an average of 32.5 shots per game, so expect the 'Hawks to have plenty of chances here.  The Over had cashed four straight times for Edmonton prior to Friday's loss. 

Blackhawks goalie Corey Crawford has really been struggling of late w/ a 6.44 goals against average his L2 starts.  Another issue is that they are missing players on the blue line, most notably top defenseman Duncan Keith.  After allowing 4+ goals the previous game, Chicago is 32-18 Over the last three seasons. They are also 24-10 Over following a loss by 2+ goals.  10* Over Oilers/Blackhawks

8* Oklahoma City (7:05 ET):  After opening up 3-0, the Thunder have lost three in a row, all by six points or less. They do only have one blowout win to their credit, that being here at home over lowly Denver, but tonight should be another as they've had two days off to prepare for a Phoenix team that I have little regard for. The Suns are off a loss too, which snapped a four-game ATS win streak. The loss came at home, to Detroit, 100-92 as four-point chalk. Other than a home and home sweep of Portland (four new starters this year), the Suns have just one win to their credit, at the expense of Sacramento. Last year, when the Thunder were more depleted, they still managed to take three of four matchups w/ the Suns. Lay the points.

Defensively, OKC has had its issues thus far. The Denver game was the only time that they allowed fewer than 100 pts this year.  Fortunately though, Phoenix has had its share of issues offensively this season. They shot just 40.2 percent overall against the Pistons. In fact, that Sacramento game was the only time this year that the Suns have shot better than 45% in a game.  Twice they've been below 40 percent.  I just don't see them keeping pace w/ a Thunder squad that will have the two best players on the floor (Durant, Westbrook) Oklahoma City averaged 122.7 PPG in its three wins and their dynamic duo is averaging 57 points per game.

There have also been no offensive issues in the past for the Thunder when facing the Suns. They've topped 102 in 17 of the last 18 matchups, including all four last year, and are 14-3 SU the L17 overall.  One big key advantage here for Oklahoma City is that they are leading the league in three-point percentage at 39.2. It's been tough competition the L3 games for OKC; this is a definite drop in class.  Meanwhile, for Phoenix, this will be just the second time they are matched up w/ a team that was being projected to make the playoffs at the start of the season.  8* Oklahoma City

10* Indianapolis (4:25 ET):  What a difference a week makes for Denver as they go from three-point dog (beat Green Bay outright!) to a six-point road favorite! Of course, the change in opponent plays a significant role in that and there's no denying that the Colts have been one of the league's bigger disappointments thus far. But I think the swing in public perception as it pertains to the Broncos is significant here. Few gave them a chance last Sunday night at home against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers (I did, taking them plus the points!). But after a surprisingly dominant 29-10 victory that kept their record perfect on the season, everyone is expecting Peyton Manning and company to roll this week.  But remember, Andrew Luck is perfect in his career as a home dog (7-0 ATS) winning six of those games OUTRIGHT! That includes a win two years ago against Manning & the Broncos. Take the points.

I was on the Colts the last time they were a home dog. It was three weeks ago against New England when everyone expected the Patriots to roll (like they do w/ Denver here) and instead Indy kept it close.  I took the Colts as a dog Monday night as well, at Carolina, and they covered that game as well despite losing in overtime. It has been a shocking tumble down the power rankings for this team, but I find it hard to believe they are THIS bad.  Overall, they are 3-0 ATS as dogs (0-5 ATS as favorites) and each of their last six games have been decided by a TD or less.  Despite being in a terrible division, this is a critical game for the Colts, who are now tied for first place in the AFC South w/ Houston. They just fired offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, so the pressure is on here.  This is the longest losing streak of Luck's career.

There is no denying that the Broncos looked great last week, much better in fact than I thought they'd look.  But, at the same time, there could be a letdown and you also cannot discount the team's offensive struggles the first six weeks of the year. Last week's 27 points (defense provided a late safety) was a season-high.  Their previous high, not accounting for defensive scores, was 24 points. They've won two games w/o scoring an offensive touchdown. Surprisingly, they are 5-1-1 ATS this year, but it's not so surprising when you consider they have yet to be favored by more than seven points in any game. Twice, they've been the dog (won outright both times). I look for a Colts team that everyone is writing off to do what Denver did last week in a similar spot and that is turn in their best performance of the year. 10* Indianapolis

10* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET):  Often times, I think of teams as "stocks" that depending on the current marketplace dictate either a "buy or sell" mentality. Sticking w/ that analogy here, the Raiders clearly appear to be in "sell high" mode currently.  The Silver and Black, off B2B impressive victories over the Chargers & Jets, haven't had a winning record this late in the season going all the way back to 2011 (started 0-10 last year!). This isn't the first time I've sought to play against Oakland on the road this year, off a win. Back in Week 4, after a 27-20 win over Cleveland, they were actually favored in Chicago and promptly lost outright to the then-winless Bears, 22-20. The belief that this is now a "playoff contender" has led to a vast overadjustment in the line (opened -7 & was even higher in the preseason). Lay the number.

The Steelers themselves were heavily bet last week, but let their backers down despite the return of Ben Roethlisberger to the lineup. They did lead the unbeaten Bengals, here at home, 10-9 entering the fourth quarter. But, overall, Big Ben did not play well in his first game back. But that was to be expected (I didn't play the game) given the long layoff. With one game under his belt, I expect Roethlisberger to be a lot better this week, especially facing what still ranks as the league's 26th ranked defense overall (in terms of yards allowed per game) and 31st against the pass (302.1 YPG). Yes, even w/o Le'veon Bell, the Steelers should be just fine here. Remember that in two games w/o him, they scored 64 points. The last five times the Steelers have been at home, off a home loss the week previous, they are 5-0 SU/ATS, winning every time by double digits.

You also have to remember just how bad Oakland has been on the road the last couple of years. They're just 4-23 SU away the L4 seasons and that includes a heinous 1-7 SU/ATS mark the L8 times they have been off a win. Granted, this is an improved team and the lone win/cover came earlier this year against the Browns, but I just think we need to "pump the brakes" a bit w/ this bunch as this is also the dreaded early start time for a West Coast team bit. The Raiders' lack of success in 1 PM ET kickoffs is well-known. Again, that Browns' victory in Wk 3, is their ONLY win in the Eastern Time Zone the last four seasons. This is a huge game for the Steelers' playoff prospects and I believe they will respond accordingly. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Tennessee (1:00 ET):  The Titans really let me down last week. They found themselves taking on an equally downtrodden Houston team (division foe) that was coming off a humiliating loss the week prior to Miami (outgained 399-3 in the first half!), yet lost anyway 20-6 to drop to 1-6 SU on the year. I think that much of the blame for last Sunday's loss can be pinned on the presence of backup Zach Mettenberger being in the lineup, though ownership chose to blame Ken Whisenhunt, who is now out as head coach, leaving Mike Mularkey to "man the battle station" the rest of the way in 2015. We saw aforementioned Miami make a coaching change earlier this year and the short-term results were very positive (B2B wins), which is usually the case when these sort of things happen. I'm taking the points here.

Mularkey has been a head coach before (Buffalo) and while that didn't necessarily go very well, at least he's got experience in the role. More importantly though, he's got rookie Marcus Mariota back in the lineup here to face New Orleans. In the two games w/o Mariota in the lineup, Tennessee scored just 13 total points, which is an embarrassment. One player can't correct everything, but note there have been two games w/ Mariota under center that the Titans have scored 33 and 42 points and this week they'll be facing an awful Saints defense that just gave up 49 points last week.  Five times this season New Orleans has given up 300+ yards passing and they rank 29th in pass defense overall. Overall, the Saints are giving up 406.3 yards per game, second most in the entire league.

Of course, facing Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense, you're going to have to play some defense. Fortunately, I think the Titans will be up to the task. Quietly, this team has given up the fifth fewest yards per game in the league this year and they are stingy in the red zone.  Two weeks ago, they held Atlanta (granted, outdoors) to only 10 points in a near-upset.  That was one of three games this season that Tennessee has lost by three points or less and one of four that they've held the opponent to 20 points or fewer.  The Saints, once 1-4 SU and going nowhere, have faced two terrible defenses the L2 weeks and have won only one time this year by more than six points. I'm not ready to buy any kind of renaissance going on in the "Big Easy."  8* Tennessee

8* Washington (1:00 ET): Now, I don't think that the Redskins are going to win this game (though I suppose there's always a chance!). But this is a pretty generous number for a team that's played better than most people realize and coming off a bye. Yes, the undefeated Patriots have had plenty of time to prepare here as well (played Thursday last week). But as I've made the case previously, this team is not in the same stratosphere as the '07 group that ran the table all the way to the Super Bowl. New England was a nice winner for me their last time out, 36-7, but that was at the expense of a Dolphins side I believed to be clearly overvalued after two relatively meaningless wins. In past analysis (where I've played AGAINST the Pats), I've been quick to point out that the team has several "close" wins (four by 8 pts or less).  Take the points.

Washington may have lost to Miami back in Wk 1 (did outgain the 'Fins 349-256 though!), but this has been a competitive bunch throughout 2015. In fact, their largest margin of defeat has been by 14 points. Before the bye, we saw them rally from a 24-point deficit to beat Tampa Bay at home. While the fact they fell behind by that many points can certainly be construed as a negative, a case can be made that QB Kirk Cousins had arguably his finest day as a pro, completing 33 of 40 passes for 317 yards and three touchdowns.  Cousins' job here will be helped by the return of WR DeSean Jackson, who has not been on the field since the opener.  Last year w/ him in the lineup, the 'Skins offense averaged nearly two more full yards per play! Remember that the secondary is supposed to be the one weak spot of this Patriots team.

The double digit dog (Cleveland) may have failed to cash Thursday, but historically teams taking 10 or more have been profitable, going 54 percent against the spread since 2003. Taking it a step further, New England is only 3-8 ATS the L11 times they have been asked to lay 14 or more points (Note: line vs. Jacksonville closed at -13.5).  While the Patriots ended up rolling in that game vs. the Jags (won 51-17), I'm not sure that it's warranted giving Washington more points than Jacksonville was getting. Predictably, the flow of public money here is on the favorite.  One serious concern for the Pats here is the health of their offensive line. LT Nate Solder is out for the season w/ a biceps tear.  That's a big loss. Look for Washington to keep this one closer than expected. 8* Washington

8* Over Rams/Vikings (1:00 ET): Similar to the Under play Thursday night on Browns-Bengals, we have a situation here where the two teams involved have combined to largely go "one way" when it comes to the total this season. Only in the case of St. Louis & Minnesota, that way is Under as they're a combined 11-3 Under this year w/ the Rams 5-2 and Vikings 6-1. Not surprisingly then, the O/U line for this matchup is the lowest on the entire Week 9 card. But despite past results, I'm seeing some solid value on the Over in this one as it will be the lowest total for either team so far this year. Both teams have offenses that can move the sticks via the ground game and while this certainly won't turn into the kind of shootout we saw last week in New Orleans, it doesn't have to w/ such a low number. Take the Over.

In the case of Minnesota, while they might be 6-1 Under (tied for top Under team in the league), a majority of their games would have landed Over this particular total. In fact, five of the last six games would have! There's been a real consistency w/ those five games seeing a total scoring range of 42 to 47 points.  Beware the Vikings' record also, as they have faced a very weak schedule to this point, arguably the easiest in the entire league.  Just consider that in the L3 games, they've faced Kansas City (1st game w/o Charles), Detroit & Chicago.  Advanced stats don't like their defense nearly as much as traditional stats might and now a unit allowing 4.4 yards per carry must go up against the sensational Todd Gurley (6.1 YPC!) and do so w/o the services of MLB Eric Kendricks (huge loss) and possibly LB Anthony Barr. That's a tall task.

The Rams too have benefited from a relatively weak schedule the past two games. Actually, "relatively" would be putting it mildly. They faced the Browns and 49ers, who might end up being the league's two worst teams by season's end.  Minnesota's offense might still be a "work in progress," but it has scored at least 20 points in all but two games this year and is now a lot better with the emergence of rookie WR Stefon Diggs (Bridgewater's favorite target). St. Louis does have the better defense of the two teams here, but it seems as if they "forget to pack it" when hitting the road as that group is allowing 380.7 YPG away from the Edward Jones Dome (6.1 yards per play) and 23.3 points per game.  8* Over Rams/Vikings

6* Over 2.5 Rounds Hallmann vs. Oliveira (11:05 ET):  On a main card where the majority of fights are likely to end quickly, I'm calling for this one to go to the judges.  This is a lightweight battle (155 lbs) with Alex Oliveira more than a 2:1 favorite to beat Piotr Hallman. Incredibly, Oliveira has never had a full training camp under his belt for a UFC fight, but comes in at 2-1 all-time in the Octagon (12-3-1 overall) and the former pro bullrider (yes, seriously) is off a unanimous decision victory the last time we saw him, which was at UFC Fight Night 70 over Joe Merritt back in June. Hallmann has dropped B2B fights and three of his last four (two by decision), making his UFC future tenuous at best. Though neither fighter has a history of going the distance, I think we're going the full three rounds here.

Hallmann, who last fought a week earlier than Oliveira's previous bout, lost on a doctor's stoppage to Magomed Mustafaev at UFC Fight Night 69 in the second round.  It's not as if he was being dominated in that fight though. In fact, many gave him the first round of the fight and it was a toss-up when it was waved off.  Two of his previous three fights here in the UFC did go to the cards w/ him losing both times, including a spit decision against Gleison Tibau in September of last year.  He does have 14 finishes in his career (15-4 overall), but I'm not convinced he's going to be able to take Oliveira down much here as this is an opponent with a size advantage that will be able to keep the fight at a distance preferable to his liking. 

Oliveira's only loss in the UFC came to rising prospect Gilbert Burns (also fights on this show) and that was via submission (armbar) in the third round w/ less than 45 seconds to go in the fight. Had he held on there, it would have meant we'd be looking at a fighter that had gone to the cards in three of his last four fights.  Because he won't want to get on the ground w/ the superior mat technician, I expect him to fight a "defensive" fight, like I said earlier, where he keeps his distance and simply looks to "score" w/ the judges while striking on his feet.  6* Over 2.5 Rounds Hallmann vs. Oliveira

8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET):  After giving up 110 points in a close win over the Kings last night, the Rockets are walking into the proverbial "lion's den" here against the rested Clippers, whose only loss this year came at the hands of unbeaten Golden State. It's not like the Clips need any additional motivation coming off their first loss of the season, but they have it here in the form of revenge for last season's crushing playoff exit at the hands of Houston. If you recall, Los Angeles was up 3-1 in that particular series and had the Rockets "dead to rights," up 17 in the third quarter here at home in the potential series clincher, but let it get away and were outscored by 37 points over the final five quarters. Tonight should be LA's night. Lay the points.

I played against the Rockets last night and the end result was a 'push' in their six-point victory over the Kings. They led "wire to wire," but the game got close at the end and were it not for James Harden's 43 points, things could have turned out very differently. Considering Harden entered last night shooting just 29.4 percent from the floor, I wouldn't be expecting a repeat performance here. Yes, Dwight Howard was given the night off Friday and will be back tonight, but there are still a number of other injuries the team is dealing with (three rotation players out). Remember that Houston, the best ATS team in the league last year, has covered just one game so far this season and started the year w/ three consecutive 20+ point losses (first team to do that in NBA history!).

The Clippers actually rallied from an early 17-point hole at Golden State Thursday night to take a 10-point lead w/ less than eight minutes remaining in the game.  But beating the Warriors is hard to do and in the end, it was a four-point loss.  That being said, LA can take solace in the fact that they are the ONLY team so far to stay within double digits of the Warriors.  The Rockets lost to the Warriors by 20 and that was at home.  We know what the Clips are capable of at home (4-0 SU this year, winning by an avg margin of 9 PPG) and this will be the fewest # of points they've been laid to ask here at the Staples Center so far this season. This is a great spot situationally for the home team. 8* LA Clippers

10* California (10:30 ET):  Have you ever heard of "the better team is getting points?" That seems to apply here as underdog Cal visits Oregon, a trip now far less daunting than it used to be back in the days of Chip Kelly.  The UO program is eroding under the watch of Mark Helfrich, who did take his team to the National Championship Game just last January, but at that point he was still riding on the coattails of Marcus Mariota.  This season has already brought three losses, two at home, one an unfathomable 62-20 beatdown at the hands of Utah.  (They also lost here to Washington State). I'm not getting too caught up in the Ducks' wild 61-55 triple overtime win over Arizona State last Thursday either as they were severely outgained in that contest, 742-501.  Take the points.

California, once 5-0, is now 5-3 and would obviously not like to wait any longer to become bowl eligible for the first time ever under HC Sonny Dykes.  Dykes' team has lost to each of the three Pac 12 South "heavyweights," those being Utah, UCLA and USC and two of those defeats came by six points or less.  One promising sign though is that this Bears' defense, save for a second half meltdown against Texas (still won - by one) and a bad game against UCLA, has been much improved, allowing only 26 PPG this year, which is way down from 2014.  Of course, we know that the QB Jared Goff and the offense can put points on the board as well.  The Bears are averaging nearly 500 total YPG and face an Oregon defense giving up nearly 500, much of it through the air. Four times this season, the Ducks have allowed 530+ yards. Yikes!  Expect Goff to have a big day here as opposing QB's are completing 63.4% of their pass attempts against the Ducks' woeful secondary.

Oregon is actually lucky that it's record isn't worse as there have been two times that they've won despite allowing those 530+ total yards of offense.  As mentioned above, one was last week against Arizona State, where they allowed over 700 (!) and lost the first down edge by nearly a 2:1 margin (37-19).  The only game they have covered as a favorite this season was laying less than a touchdown at Colorado. While they've beaten Cal six straight times by an average of four touchdowns per game, the last two years have seen them cover the spread by only a combined three-point margin.  Needless to say, the visitors will be quite fired up for this one.  Being on the wrong end of the turnover margin against Utah and USC (-3 both times) really cost Cal in those games.  It's their turn to shine!  10* California

10* Brooklyn (8:35 ET): With an embarrassing home loss to the Lakers Friday night, the Nets maintained their place as one of the league's three winless teams, alongside Philadelphia and (surprisingly) New Orleans. They've been outscored by a league worst 13.2 points per game to this point and I have them ahead of only the 76ers (who have the last spot in perpetuity) in my own personal power rankings.  But, brighter times could be ahead, at least this evening as they visit Milwaukee in an early season revenge spot. The Bucks, who also played last night (beat New York 99-92), won at Brooklyn five days ago by a final score of 103-96 (as 1.5-pt favorites). I'll take the points in the rematch.

When these teams first played, Milwaukee was 0-3 and coming off an ugly loss the previous night in Toronto. They've now won three straight, but all have been at the expense of the dregs of the Atlantic (Nets, 76ers, Knicks) and by no more than a seven-point margin. I've already played against this team, as a favorite, a couple of times this season (and gone 2-0 ATS) and noted that they are somewhat overvalued in that role coming off a profitable 2014-15 campaign at the betting window (55.3 percent ATS).  The Bucks were lucky last night in the sense that their own awful three-point shooting (3 of 14) was "topped" by New York going just 4 of 21 from behind the arc. An early 14-point lead was huge as the margin was only two points heading into the fourth quarter, but the Knicks could never "get over the hump."

Brooklyn was also terrible from distance last night, missing 16 of 19 three-point attempts. Sadly, that's nothing new as the team is a league-worst 22.7 percent from 3-pt range this year. That and turnovers have been the major issues. They actually jumped out to an early 27-18 lead on the Lakers, but wound up giving that away by halftime. Part of the problem, in my opinion, is that there were a ton of Laker fans at the game last night and it almost had a feel of a road game for the Nets, despite being at the Barclays Center. This is an actual road game, but considering the way they've played the Bucks in five meetings the last two seasons (four decided by 7 pts or less), I'm siding with the underdog. Points could be at a premium in this one. 10* Brooklyn

8* Washington (7:30 ET):  This will be the second time that Utah finds itself as an underdog to an unranked opponent. We all recall what happened the first time as they went to USC and suffered their only loss of the season, 42-24.  I was on the Trojans, who were coming off a high-profile coaching change there, and while the situation this week might be a little different, I do believe the result will be the same for the visiting Utes. In the case of Washington, they are coming off an absolute beatdown of Arizona LW here in Seattle (49-3!) and have started to show signs of vast improvement in Chris Petersen's second year here. I just do not buy Utah as a legit playoff contender and see them going down again Saturday.

The Utes somewhat came out of nowhere this year.  The entire Pac 12 South, which was foolishly billed as the "next SEC West" at the start of the season, has been a giant disappointment.  Utah does have a win over Michigan, but that was Jim Harbaugh's first day on the job and the game was in Salt Lake City.  What really landed the Utes "on the map" was a 62-20 win at Autzen over Oregon, but the Ducks are another Pac 12 team that took a giant step back in 2015. Wins over both Cal and Arizona State were somewhat fortunate for the Utes, who last year were actually dead last in the conference in yards per game differential, making this 2015 run all the more surprising.  Other than running back Devontae Booker, this offense struggles to move the ball at times. Last week, they were shut out in the second and third quarters by a weak Oregon State team. The defense Utah faces this week is much stouter. 

The Utes have never beaten the Huskies in eight all-time tries.  The most points they've ever scored against the Huskies is 15 and that came in 2012, their last visit to Seattle, a 19-point loss.  This year, Washington is allowing only 16.9 points per game and ranks #1 in the conference in terms of yards allowed per game & on a per play basis.  Remember that they held USC to just 12 points in a road win earlier this season.  Three of the Huskies' four losses have been by six points or less, so they are better than their record.  As a favorite, the team has gone 18-3 straight up the last three seasons.  8* Washington

10* Nebraska (7:00 ET):  With the state of the Nebraska program being what it is right now and Michigan State off a bye, predictably, "the world" is on Sparty here but I'm going the other way. The Cornhuskers are nowhere near as bad as their 3-6 SU record would seem to indicate as five of those losses have come by three points or less and last week's 55-45 stunner at the hands of lowly Purdue was actually a byproduct of a horrible -5 turnover margin above anything else.  Lest we forget that Michigan State opened the year as a disaster at the betting window, failing to cover each of their first six games before the "Miracle at Michigan," which as we know should have ended up as a blemish on their still perfect SU record. Now seems like a great time to jump on board the home dog here.  Take the points. 

Even a 52-26 win over Indiana two weeks ago wasn't as easy as the final score made it out to be for the Spartans. That was a two-point game (28-26) entering the fourth quarter and the margin was only 12 with five minutes remaining before three Michigan State touchdowns put the game out of reach.  The late surge resulted in the Spartans' first double digit win in Big 10 play all season.  They have had just the opposite luck of Nebraska in close games this year, winning four times by seven points or less.  The countdown seems to be on for the big showdown w/ fellow unbeaten Ohio State on November 21st, but first Sparty needs to be concerned about laying points in a place they have never won at. In fact, last year's 27-22 victory in East Lansing (were backdoored) was their first of any kind, ever, over the Cornhuskers. Also, of interest is that the only other time in program history that MSU was 8-0 SU, they promptly went out and lost at Iowa (back in 2010). 

We knew that Mike Reilly was likely inheriting a rebuilding project in Lincoln, but he couldn't possibly have imagined this.  This being a season w/ six losses before November, something that had previously never happened in Nebraska history! Only once since 1959 have they lost seven games in a season and that came in '07, the year before Bo Pelini was hired.  Every year it seems as if there's one team that has all the bad luck go against it & in the case of 2015, that team is clearly Nebraska. They've lost on a Hail Mary (BYU), in overtime (Miami), blown a 13-0 fourth quarter lead (Illinois), lost on a last second FG (Wisconsin), lost w/ a 22-14 FD edge (N'western) & then last week there was the dreaded -5 TO margin.  Fortunately, this week, it looks like QB Tommy Armstrong is going to play. Eventually, this team is going to catch a big break. They have to.  10* Nebraska

8* Winnipeg (7:05 ET):  Philadelphia is giving up the most shots per game in the entire league right now (34.3), so it should come as no surprise to find them on a six-game losing streak coming into tonight. The Flyers have allowed a ghastly 36.4 shots per game their last five and been outscored 21-9 during the losing streak, which has included falling to the likes of Buffalo, Edmonton and Calgary. Winnipeg may not be the best team in the league, actually they're far from it, but they certainly should be able to take advantage of a club playing it's fourth game in Western Canada in six nights and at the end of a five-game trek overall. For the Jets, this is also a double revenge spot from last year.  Take the favorite.

Like Philly, Winnipeg has played its L3 games as the road team "North of the Border." The results were less than ideal, but the two losses came against Montreal (best team in the league, by a mile, right now) and in a shootout to Ottawa. The last time we found this team playing at home, I was on them & the result was two points as they beat the Stanley Cup champion Blackhawks 3-1. Another encouraging sign here for the Jets is that in the last two games, they have put a total of 74 shots on net (40 vs. Ottawa). Given the Flyers' defensive woes, I would be shocked if the Jets didn't have one of their best offensive games of the season here.  This is a team that has generally taken advantage of the weaker foes on its schedule, already beating the likes of Calgary, Columbus and Toronto. They are 42-30 L72 vs. teams w/ a losing record.

The Flyers' offensive woes are evident when you look at goals per game as they are averaging only 1.9, which ranks 29th overall in the league. They are also next to last on the power play at just 10.5 percent for the year. That and the fact they are allowing more shots per game than any other team is a dreadful combination. Again, they just lost to a Calgary team that has the worst goal differential (-25) in the league.  They've been outshot in every game during the losing streak and have just two regulation wins to their credit (both early season shutouts) all season. It's a bad time to be a Flyers' fan. 8* Winnipeg

10* Middle Tennessee (3:30 ET):  If one were to simply glance at won-loss record, then you'd probably think that "it's just another strong year" for Marshall, who is 8-1 SU and has won seven in a row since suffering its lone loss of the season, 21-10 at Ohio, back on September 12th. But, my goodness, the Thundering Herd have played quite possibly the weakest schedule in the entire country to this point. Their eight wins have come against teams that have a combined 16 wins against FBS foes between them.  Even playing in the weak Conference USA, they've somehow managed to escape (so far) the top teams in the league. But that changes starting Saturday w/ a visit to Murfreesboro where the hosts will be rested and ready to end a four-game ATS slide. The line move here is significant (MTSU opened -1, moved to -3 despite taking fewer bets).  Lay the points.

Middle Tennessee has now had two weeks to "stew" over its embarrassing 45-16 loss at Louisiana Tech. Actually, upon further inspection, that loss wasn't all that embarrassing as the Blue Raiders actually gained over 400 yards of total offense. But as you might have guessed, turnovers (-3 margin) played a deciding factor in Ruston. Two of them, late in the first half, turned a 21-10 game into a 35-10 game in less than two minutes. While, thus far, Marshall has avoided the other contenders in C-USA, Middle Tennessee has already played La Tech and Western Kentucky (lost to both). Not to mention, they've taken on Alabama, Illinois and Vanderbilt. So I wouldn't put a ton of stock into the respective records here as the Blue Raiders being favored tells the story.

This year's Marshall team is nowhere near as strong as LY's outfit, particularly on the offensive side of the ball.  They are scoring roughly two touchdowns fewer per game and aren't even in the top 100 in terms of efficiency.  Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee QB Brent Stockstill is averaging over 300 YPG (career-high 381 last game!) w/ an 18-6 TD-INT ratio. In its three home games vs. non-Power 5 foes, the Blue Raiders have scored 70, 73 and 42 points!  Marshall, an underdog for the 1st time in 33 games (speaks volumes!), has been a shaky road team through the years, going just 19-43 outside of Huntington the past decade and that includes LY's team going 6-0! This will be the first time that the Thundering Herd have had to play B2B away games (were at Charlotte LW) since September of 2013.  The home team has won all four times these teams have played as conference rivals.  The Blue Raiders will likely have to win out to make a bowl and I think there's a very good possibility of that happening, starting w/ a big win here. 10* Middle Tennessee