8* Vegas (7:05 ET): The Golden Knights have won 9 of their last 11 games and just started a four-game East Coast swing out on the right foot w/ a 3-2 win over the Islanders Wednesday. While we know this team has built a tremendous home ice advantage in less than two years of existence, I don't think tonight's road game will be too difficult. New Jersey currently sits at the bottom of the Metropolitan Division and is last in the Eastern Conference w/ only 26 points. The Devils have won just once in their last nine games. They also may be w/o LW Taylor Hall, last season's league MVP.

While the Devils could be w/o their best players, Vegas could be getting it's key offseason addition back on the ice. Paul Stasny has been out since October 8th, but skated at practice yday and has been pronounced as ready to play in a game. Even w/o him, the Knights have played really well of late. Despite only 17 shots on goal Wednesday, they were still able to pick up two points on the road, which is tough to do. They scored less a minute into the game via the power play. One thing they've done very well this year is beat up on lesser teams. The Knights' record vs. sub-.500 foes is 11-4 SU.

Expect the number of shots on goal for Vegas to be much higher tonight. That should then lead to a big night against a Devils team that has surrendered an average of 4.6 goals its last five games. Goaltending has been generally abysmal for NJ this season, no matter who's between the pipes. It's expected to be Keith Kinkaid tonight and he has an .871 save percentage his L4 starts. Note the Devils only win in the L9 games came against Los Angeles, one of only two teams in the league w/ a fewer number of points. The Devils' record against teams w/ a winning record is just 3-9 so far. 8* Vegas

8* Orlando (9:35 ET): In the writeup for the total, I didn't talk much about the fact this game is being played in Mexico City. While I think it's going to adversely affect both teams on the defensive end, look for the Magic to be less affected and ultimately pull out an easy win. Chicago is a complete mess right now w/ the Boylen situation and players threatening to boycott practice. Overall, the Bulls have dropped 13 of their last 15 games w/ one of the wins coming at home over Phoenix. This is easily one of the worst teams in the league and it's either them and it's hard to fathom taking them getting such a short number. I'll lay the points. 

Orlando has lost its last three games, the last two in blowout fashion. The streak began w/ a tough loss in overtime to Denver, at home. Maybe getting away to Mexico City is what this young team needed. As mentioned in the writeup on the total, the Magic weren't at full strength for the Dallas game and they shot the ball terribly. But, save for Jonathan Simmons, they're back to a full compliment of players here and should shoot the ball a lot better. Despite the three-game losing streak, the Magic are still in 8th place in the East. If they want to be a playoff team, then they need to win games like this. For the year, the Magic are 12-6 ATS vs. teams allowing at least 106 PPG. 8* Orlando 

10* Over Bulls/Magic (9:35 ET): I like both side and total in this game, which takes place in Mexico City. Let's start w/ the total, which I like a little bit more. In one of the more bizarre trends you'll find, the Bulls & Magic have gone Under the total 11 straight times when facing off. I'm going to call for that to end Thursday as this O/U is way too low for pretty much any matchup, by 2018 standards. I realize the Magic are coming off a terrible 76-point showing in Dallas while Chicago is dead last in the league in offensive efficiency. But when you look at the season-long numbers for both sides, it adds up to an Over.

The Under is 8-2 in the Bulls' previous 10 games. They too are off a couple "stinkers" offensively. First, they were held to 77 pts in a humiliating 56-pt home loss to Boston. Then, perhaps equally as embarrassing was getting held to 89 points at home by Sacramento. There's a lot of turmoil going on w/ the Bulls right now as the players haven't exactly taken a "liking" to interim HC Jim Boylen. But both Kris Dunn and Bobby Portis are back from knee injuries and we should start to see some improvement, at least on the offensive end. 

Orlando is off a dreadful shooting night against Dallas where they finished at 36% overall from the field and missed 20 of 28 three-point attempts. You have to figure they're going to shoot better here, even in a relatively unfamiliar environment. Leading scorer Nikola Vucevic, in particular, should have a bounce back game after he scored a season-low eight points on 4 of 15 shooting vs. Dallas. The Magic were also w/o both Mo Bamba (suspended) and third-leading scorer Evan Fournier in that one. Both are expected back Thursday and like Chicago, we should see a rather dramatic increase offensively from the Magic compared to the last game. They average 104.6 PPG while giving up 107.9. Chicago averages 101.8 PPG while giving up 112.9. Both of those points scored vs. allowed averages work out to an Over here. 10* Over Bulls/Magic

8* Under Clippers/Spurs (8:35 ET): We've gotten a glimpse of the "Spurs of old" as in their last two games (both wins), they've held the opposition to just 97 and 86 points respectively. That's a far cry from when Greg Popovich's team was torched for 127 PPG over the previous six games, a stretch where the Over went 6-0. While their defensive efficiency rating has slipped (tied for 26th), perhaps we're seeing the start of a turnaround. For tonight, it helps that the Spurs are at home where they allow "only" 106.6 PPG as opposed to the 118.1 PPG they give up on the road. 

The Clippers have been one of the real surprises in the league so far. At one point, they head the best record in the Western Conference! But after needing OT to get by lowly Phoenix Monday night, the Clips got blown out in Toronto 123-99 the following night. It was their third SU loss in the last four games and they're 0-4 ATS during that same stretch. They've been held under 100 pts in all three losses and have averaged just 98.5 PPG in regulation factoring in the game against the Suns. Right now, LA is w/o Lou Williams, who is their third leading scorer despite being a reserve. 

San Antonio shot a blistering 62% from three-point range in Tuesday's 111-86 win over Phoenix. I wouldn't look for that number to be repeated here. Even though they are shooting the ball really well from distance for the season, the Spurs are still at "only" 38.9% behind the arc. Nor would I look for Bryn Forbes to approach the career-high in points (24) he set vs. Phoenix, a night which included him going 5 for 5 on three-point attempts. Through the years, the Spurs are 6-1 Under in home games where the total is 220 pts or higher. These teams played a high scoring game last month (116-111 Clippers win), but I expect different this time around. 8* Under Clippers/Spurs

10* Kansas City (8:20 ET): This one is for "all the marbles" in the AFC West. Well, perhaps that statement is a bit premature. After Thursday night, both the Chargers and Chiefs have two games to go. If Los Angeles were to win Thursday night, then they'd be tied w/ KC atop the division at 11-3 and we'd have to see how things play out.  But if the Chiefs win here, they clinch the division as they'll have a two-game lead on the Bolts and own the tiebreaker. One of the major stories going into this showdown is how KC has absolutely OWNED the rivalry. Head to head, they've beaten the Chargers NINE consecutive times (last loss was 2013). The most recent win was Week 1, 38-28, as a 3-point dog. The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS during that nine-game SU win streak. 

When the Chiefs beat the Chargers back in Week 1, little did any of us know the kind of trans-formative season that QB Patrick Mahomes was set to have. Mahomes is rewriting the record books, becoming just the third 1st or 2nd year QB to throw for over 4,000 yds and 40 TD passes in the same season. Dan Marino and Kurt Warner are the two others. Mahomes, now the betting favorite to win NFL MVP, has thrown for 4,300 yds and 43 touchdowns. Both Marino and Warner made it to the Super Bowl in their 4000+ yard, 40+ TD seasons. Under Mahomes direction, the Chiefs have the top offense in the league, averaging 36.2 PPG. They are unbeaten at home and getting this game on a short week is a huge advantage. 

You might recall that I played against KC last week as they squeaked by Baltimore, 27-24 in overtime. I was a winner as the Ravens were +7. Why the quick switch to the Chiefs, especially in light of how critical I was of their defense in last week's analysis? Well, I don't think LA is going to be able to replicate the kind of pressure Baltimore's top ranked defense got on Mahomes. Also, the Chargers have a major injury concern at RB w/ Melvin Gordon and possibly Austin Eckler both out. Without Gordon, they were able to beat both the Steelers and Bengals. But remember they were down 23-7 at the half in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati is a bad team they only beat by five points. While I'm a fan of what the Chargers have done this season, they've really beaten up on a lot of bad teams. They are just 3-7 SU the L10 times they've been an underdog of a field goal or more. 10* Kansas City 

8* Over Lakers/Rockets (8:05 ET): When these teams met early in the season, they have little difficulty in going Over a much higher total. Thus, I have no problem taking the Over here. The Lakers lost that early season meeting, 124-115, in Houston. It was part of an 0-3 start to the season for them, but they're the ones that have turned things around, going 17-7 SU since. Meanwhile, the Rockets are still trying to dig themselves out of a hole. They're two games below .500 entering play tonight and second from the bottom in the Western Conference. 

Under has admittedly been the way to go w/ the Lakers over the last month. The Under is 16-4 in their L20 games, a stretch which dates all the way back to Halloween. Their last two games have stayed Under the total, but both came against low-scoring teams, Memphis and Miami . This should be a much different style of game w/ Houston likely trying to push the pace. Also, it's not as if the Lakers are a bad offensive team. They average 113.1 PPG on 47.4%. You may have heard of LeBron James, who has seen improvement in his three-point shooting since coming to LA. James and the Lakers should exploit a Rockets team that is 25th in defensive efficiency.

Houston found itself down double digits at home in the first half to Portland Tuesday night. They roared back for a 111-103 victory, snapping a three-game losing streak. They'd also gone 2-7 SU and ATS the last nine games. I have to say that it's been rather shocking to see how far the Rockets have fallen offensively after being neck & neck w/ Golden State last year in terms of efficiency and points per game. But there's still a lot of time to rectify that fall and the team's home games are already 7-4 to the Over, even if their last one didn't quite get there. Again, the total was much higher when these teams played early in the year (237.5) and the game went Over despite terrible FT shooting from both sides and the Lakers missing 24 of 32 three-point attempts. Six of the last eight meetings have gone Over. 8* Over Lakers/Rockets

8* LSU (9:00 ET): Nine teams are still unbeaten in College Basketball and you can predictably find most of them in the latest Top 25 poll. Even a schools as small as Furman finds itself at #23 in the AP due to the "0" in the loss column. But, make no mistake about it, not all of these unbeatens SHOULD be in the Top 25. Take Houston, for example. The Cougars are 8-0 SU, but I don't believe they're one of the 25 best teams in the country. LSU has been a real "problem opponent" for them the L2 years and I would not be surprised to see the Tigers end UH's unbeaten run for a second time in the last three seasons. Take the points.

Each of the last two years have seen Houston go down to Baton Rouge and suffer an outright loss to LSU as favorites. Two years ago, the Cougars were 5-0 SU and laying 4.5 points. They lost 84-65. Last season, they were 8-2 SU and 2.5-pt favorites as they paid a visit. They lost 80-77. This time, they're hoping the "third time is the charm" at home. Houston does have a few nice wins this year. They beat Oregon here at home, plus they went to BYU and Oklahoma State and prevailed. That OK State win came over the weekend as they held the Pokes to 35.1% shooting in a 63-53 win. They shot 12 of 34 from three-point range themselves. 

LSU is playing its first "true" road game here. They lost - by 13 - to Oklahoma State on a neutral floor. So between that, UH being at home and still unbeaten, it's easy to see why LSU is the underdog here. But the Bayou Bengals have four players averaging double figures and leading rebounder Emmitt Williams is expected back tonight after he missed the 91-50 beatdown of Incarnate Word on Sunday. This team is averaging an impressive 82.1 PPG on 49.7% shooting. So they're very attractive in the underdog role, which they're in for only the second time this year. They covered the first - as 3.5-pt dogs - vs. Florida State. 8* LSU

8* Portland State (9:00 ET): Portland State just got done beating Portland Bible College (really!) and Portland U. I suppose they ran out of teams within the city limits to beat so they'll venture to Provo Wednesday to meet a BYU team that has been taking care of business in its own state. The Cougars hold wins over both Utah State and Utah in the last week, a nice recovery from a three-game slide. It was a really nice win Saturday over the rival Utes, but I look at this matchup as a letdown spot for BYU. It certainly isn't a great situation to be laying this many points.

I'll admit that Portland State's numbers are a bit skewed due to three huge wins over non-board teams. They beat Portland Bible College 123-40, outscoring them 65-18 in the 1st half. Last Thursday's game vs. Portland was obviously a much bigger test and it was one that the Vikings passed w/ "flying colors." They led the Pilots by as many as 19 in the 2H and improved to 4-0 SU at home. This will be just their second "true" road game of the season, the first being a 12-point loss at Stanford. The Vikings have covered 15 of their last 20 non-conference games.

Two of BYU's four losses have come against teams that are still unbeaten, Nevada & Houston. But they've also lost to Illinois State and Weber State, games in which they were favored to win. They gave up 92 and 113 points respectively in those two losses. One did go to overtime, but it's not the one you think as the Cougars really did give up 113 pts in regulation to Weber State. They lost despite shooting 59.4% from the floor as they gave up 66 2nd half points. That's not necessarily indicative of how BYU plays defense; they just held Utah to 59 pts, for example. But I look for them to give up enough tonight that it costs them the cover. 8* Portland State 

8* Calgary (8:35 ET): Pardon the pun, but the Flames have been really hot of late. They've surged to the top of the Pacific Division by winning 9 of their last 12 games. They'd won five in a row before taking a 1-0 loss to rival Edmonton Sunday. Back on home ice, look for them to bounce back tonight against a Philadelphia side that has lost 7 of its last 10 games, including an ugly 7-1 defeat at the hands of Winnipeg their last time out. The Flames have had just two losing streaks all season, the last one coming in mid-November. Lay the price here.

Calgary will be getting their captain, Mark Giordano, back tonight after he was forced to sit out the last two games due to a suspension. Still, even w/o Giordano, the Flames were able to down Nashville on Saturday, 5-2. They probably missed him in the 1-0 loss to Edmonton the following night, but that was on the road. Here at home, the team has gone 10-3-2 while averaging 4.2 goals per game. So its not like they're lacking in firepower. One thing that the Flames do really well is limit the number of shot attempts from their opponent. They allow just 28.0 per game, third lowest in the league. Goaltender Mike Smith has posted a .929 save percentage in his L4 starts. 

The Flyers have really struggled this year as their 27 points have them second from the bottom in the Metro. They rank near the bottom of the league in several statistics, most notably goals allowed. They're 29th, giving up 3.61 per game. That's trouble facing a team that is #2 in the league in goals scored at home. Also, Philly has terrible special teams. They are dead last in the league in penalty killing (71.7%) and 29th on the power play (13.6%). Note that Calgary is 4th in the league in goals allowed, so this shapes up as a total mismatch. None of the Flyers' goaltending options right now are particularly attractive. 8* Calgary

10* Cleveland (7:05 ET): For the second time in eight years, the Cavs are having a really tough time in a post-LeBron world. Things aren't quite as bad now as they got in 2010, but still. The team's record is 6-21 SU and they are definitely one of the four worst (but not THE worst) teams in the league right now. Injuries have played a role w/ Kevin Love missing a ton of time and now Tristan Thompson, the other frontcourt stalwart from the four Finals teams, may miss up to a month as well. But despite all that, I still believe Cleveland deserves to be a slight favorite on its home court vs. a New York team I'd also rank in my bottom five. The Knicks have many of the same issues the Cavs do and have lost four straight, also going 0-4 ATS. Take the points here.

New York has lost six of seven overall, the one win coming in overtime against Milwaukee of all opponents. This is a team that does very little well and the good news here for Cleveland is that the Knicks are one of the few teams as defensively inept as they are. Cleveland is 30th (i.e. last) in defensive efficiency. But the Knicks are 28th and have given up an average of 120.6 points the L5 games. This obviously has the potential to be a really high-scoring game and I simply wouldn't trust NY as a road favorite, a role which they've been in only one other time all year (at Atlanta). The Knicks are just 4-11 SU in all road games, losing by an average of nearly 10 PPG. 

Four of the Cavs' six wins this year have come here at home. They won here at the Quicken Loans Arena on Saturday, beating another bad team (the Wizards) 116-101 as 7.5-pt dog. Rookie Collin Sexton had a career-best 29 pts in that game, but unfortunately followed it up w/ a bad shooting night against Milwaukee, a game the Cavs lost 108-92. Expect Sexton and the Cavs to shoot a whole lot better tonight and there's no reason to believe they can't beat the Knicks (who are also w/o their best player, Kristaps Porzingis) at home. 10* Cleveland

10* Columbia (7:00 ET): Columbia got off to a terrible start to the year, losing six of its first seven games. But the Lions have kept a busy schedule here in December and won their last two games, the most recent one being a minor upset of Iona at MSG on Sunday. Now they're set to play a string of road games that will take them through the New Year. Up first is a venture to Chesnut Hill to face Boston College. B.C. has certainly had a tumultuous last week or so. It began w/ an overtime loss, 100-95, to Providence last Tuesday. Then, last weekend's game vs. Texas A&M was cancelled due to mechanical issues w/ the Eagles' plane. Now they have to lay a big number. It's not a good spot and I'll be taking the points in this matchup.

While B.C. is 6-2 SU, they've hardly taken on a challenging schedule. In fact, they've yet to even play a "true" road game. Their "best" win came in the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge over Minnesota. However, they've hardly been blowing teams out. Since opening the season w/ a 20-pt win over Milwaukee, they've yet to win another game by more than 15 pts. That's key considering the number here. And an outright loss wouldn't be unprecedented considering the Eagles did lose to IUPUI as 16-pt chalk last month. Against Providence, they didn't shoot the ball well, but the bigger problem was giving up 87 pts in regulation. Leading scorer Ky Bowman has been in a slump, shooting less than 37% from the floor in three straight games. 

Columbia was able to defeat Iona despite not having its leading scorer Mike Smith. It appears as if he will suit up on Wednesday. Note that this is a revenge game for the Lions as they lost here LY, 81-66. That was despite attempting only TWO free throws the entire game! Something else to consider here is that Columbia's record could easily be a whole lot better. They have suffered three losses by a total of 4 pts (all by 2 pts or less). They have yet to lose any game by more than 11 points. So just like B.C. really hasn't been blown out, Columbia really hasn't been blown out. 10* Columbia

10* Portland (8:05 ET): Houston continues to be vastly overrated in the marketplace. It's easy to understand why. They won 65 games last year and it was them, not the Warriors, who went into the playoffs as the #1 seed in the Western Conference. They even took the Warriors to a deciding 7th game in the WCF and even had a big lead w/o Chris Paul. But something is very different this year. While Paul and James Harden are still here, much of the supporting cast has been stripped away. What's left is a below .500 club that is second from the bottom in the Conference and they might as well be "last" considering that Phoenix is the one team below them. The Rockets simply should NOT be favored by this many over a Portland team that is just plain better than them. Take the points.

Truthfully, neither of these teams has played very well of late. While Houston is just 2-7 SU and ATS in its last nine games, Portland went through its own ATS "dry spell," failing to cover in eight straight games at one point. But they've recovered somewhat w/ B2B wins at home, both of which saw them cover the spread easily. The first was against lowly Phoenix, a game which the Blazers got out to a 36-9 lead. Then came a 113-105 win over Minnesota on Saturday. CJ McCollum is now back in the lineup, so Portland is at full strength here. They've already won here in Houston once this year, doing so by a score of 105-84 back on October 30th. Admittedly, James Harden did not play in that game. 

When the Rockets won five in a row heading into Thanksgiving, it looked as if they'd righted the ship and the early season struggles had passed. But, now they've gone just 2-7 SU and ATS the L9 games and it's pretty clear that there are some significant issues w/ this team. They've never been known for defense, but last year saw them finish the regular season ranked 6th in efficiency. This year, they're down all the way to 25th. Defensive rebounding is another issue as they're 29th in that category. Chris Paul is shooting only 43.1% from the floor, his lowest percentage since he was a rookie. And the team's bench is last in the league in scoring. Overall, it's just not hard to see why this team is 7-12 ATS as a favorite this season w/ 10 outright losses. 10* Portland

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Maple Leafs come into this game off back to back losses. First, they lost as massive ML favorites (-315!) at home to Detroit on Thursday (in overtime). Then came a 6-3 loss in Boston Saturday. As a result, they're rapidly falling behind red hot Tampa Bay as the gap has widened to eight points between the top two in the Atlantic Division. But this is a good team and I fully expect Toronto to turn things around. At no point this season have the Leafs dropped three in a row. They're 3-0 SU off B2B losses, winning two of those games by at least five goals. They've outscored the three opponents 15-2 in the situation and that includes wins at Winnipeg and Pittsburgh. 

Carolina comes into tonight w/ a major question mark in goal. Goaltending has long been a concern for this franchise, but picking up Curtis McElhinney off the "scrap heap" (right before the season started) turned into a godsend. Ironically, it was Toronto that had discarded him. McElhinney has a .920 save percentage in his L11 starts, easily the best on the team. But now he's injured, having suffered the dreaded "lower body injury" in practice. That means Scott Darling (.882 save percentage) will likely get the nod. Darling had been demoted to the AHL after no one wanted to claim him off waivers. Or it could be Petr Mrazek, who isn't a whole lot better (.899 save percentage). 

The Hurricanes beat Toronto earlier in the year, 5-2, but that was w/ McElhinney between the pipes. Without him, I worry about the Canes facing an opponent that ranks 2nd in the league in goals per game. Speaking of offense, Carolina has an issue there as well. Despite regularly outshooting their opponents, they average only 2.5 goals per game, which is 29th. Opposing goaltenders have posted a .934 save percentage against them this season. That tells me that while they're getting a lot of shots, most of them are not quality ones. Carolina has lost six of nine games against winning teams this season. 8* Toronto

8* Pennsylvania (7:00 ET): Two of Philly's Big 5 meet up Tuesday night at The Palestra. Both Villanova and Penn are 8-2. Villanova is the defending National Champions, yet this season got off to a bit of a dicey start. They were 2-2 after suffering B2B embarrassing losses to Michigan and Furman (both at home). Losing to Michigan isn't that embarrassing, but losing by 27 certainly was. The Wildcats were 16-pt favorites agianst Furman. However, six wins later (the last three all coming against the other Philly area rivals) and Nova is back in the top 25. They deserve to be, but this won't be an easy game against Penn. I'm taking the points. 

Villanova is obviously Philly's finest, but a case can be made that Penn is #2. The Quakers have won four in a row, including an 89-75 victory in this gym over Miami FL. So they certainly won't be intimidated. They too are off a win over a city rival, in their case a bad LaSalle team, whom they defeated 83-65 as 5.5-pt chalk. Note Nova was a 17-pt fave @ LaSalle, yet only won by seven. That was their only other "true" road game as well. Subsequent wins over Temple and St. Joe's (at home) have made it 25 straight Big 5 victories. This team is now 29-14 ATS its last 43 games overall. But I stand by my earlier assertion that this will not be an easy game for the favored Wildcats. 

Early in the year, Penn lost Ryan Betley, a 3-pt specialist and all-Ivy League Player. But the team hasn't missed a beat. Freshman Michael Wang has picked up the slack, shooting a ridiculous 57.4% from the field. Penn is a very good shooting team overall, making nearly 50% of its shots, including almost 40% from three-point range. That will go a long way when taking points. The Quakers are 4-0 at home, averaging a ridiculous 96 PPG on 56.3% shooting. Obviously, they won't approach those numbers tonight, but they should still score enough to cover. Villanova did not shoot well in its last game (37.5%). 8* Pennsylvania 

8* Phoenix (9:05 ET): The Suns have been beyond atrocious recently, but that has a lot to do w/ the fact they've been without their top two scorers, TJ Warren and Devin Bookier. Warren is expected back tonight and while there's no disputing just how ugly it's been in Phoenix this year, I think the team is more than capable of staying inside a double digit number at home. The Clippers, are one of the bigger surprises in the league so far, but they've been held 100 pts in B2B losses. They just lost as 9.5-pt home favorites to Miami and are only 7-7 SU on the road.

The Suns are off to the worst start in franchise history at 4-22 SU. They've lost eight in a row, also going 0-8 ATS. Their last loss was also at home to Miami, although they were 8.5-pt dogs and the final score was 115-98. Still, I can't harp enough on the fact that they've been down their top two scorers. Warren will only play limited minutes tonight, but his 17.2 PPG scoring average will be welcomed. I just have to think that this team is due to - at the very worst - play a close game tonight. 

The Clippers beat the Suns at home a couple weeks ago, 115-99. But it was a tie game at halftime. That also happens to be the last time both Warren and Booker suited up for the Suns. I realize that this is a team with very little going for it right now, but they're still a group of professionals w/ some pride. Losing a seventh straight time by double digits is almost unheard of, even for the worst teams in this league. I just have the feeling that the oddsmakers are being a little bit too generous in this one. 8* Phoenix

8* Orlando (8:35 ET): Dallas has won 9 in a row at home and their last win here was special for me as it was a *10* Top Division Play that saw them upset Houston. Overall, the Mavs have won 11 of their last 13 games as they look to be one of the more improved teams in the league this year. But as good as they've been at home so far, they're a team that still isn't favored all that often. Tonight will mark just the 4th time they've been favored to win a game by more than three points. Likely w/o starting PG Dennis Smith Jr for a third straight game, I see them as a ripe for a letdown tonight. 

Orlando is also improved this year, though you wouldn't know it from the result of their last game. They lost by 22 at home to Indiana, who was w/o Victor Oladipo. It was the Magic's second straight loss as Denver also beat them at home last Wednesday. But prior to those consecutive setbacks, the Magic were on a real roll at the betting window, covering 11 of 13 games. They are 9-2 ATS on the road this year and 13-7 ATS overall when taking points. Leading scorer Nikola Vucevic is going to play despite suffering an ankle injury in the game vs. Indiana Friday night.

The Magic are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS this season when coming off B2B losses. As well as the Mavericks have played at home this year, I simply do not like them laying this many points. The Magic have actually played significantly better defense on the road than at home. They are allowing just 104.7 PPG as a visitor as opposed to 111.1 PPG at home. I just see this as a game where is Dallas is likely to have a letdown.  8* Orlando 

10* Under Vikings/Seahawks (8:15 ET): These teams have not met since the infamous 10-9 Seattle playoff win in 2016 (Blair Walsh game). It should be a "playoff-like atmosphere" Monday night in the Pacific Northwest with both the Vikings and Seahawks looking to get back to the postseason. Seattle is a hot team right now. They've won three straight to get to 7-5 SU and while winning the division is no longer a possibility (Rams have already clinched), the Wild Card is looking more and more like a distinct possibility. Minnesota is in a slightly more precarious position at 6-5-1 SU. This is the second leg of a pretty brutal set of back to back road games. Last week they were in New England, now they have to go cross-country to one of the more challenging venues in the league. 

The Over has hit in each of Seattle's last four games. They scored a ton of points last week, but that was a little misleading as the offense gained just 331 total yards. Believe it or not, they were actually outgained (-119) by the 49ers in the 43-16 win. The key was forcing three turnovers, one of them a late "pick-six." Not saying that the result was likely to be any different, but the Seahawks also scored on a number of "short" drives (had a 20-yd TD drive). As good as Russell Wilson is, Seattle's passing attack isn't exactly lighting it up of late. Four of the last five games have seen them finish w/ 205 or less passing yards. Wilson only attempted 17 passes last week, completing 11. This is an offense that likes to run the ball, which means fewer possessions and a running clock.

There's been some hand-wringing over Seattle's secondary recently as they let a backup QB (Nick Mullens) throw for 400+ yards last week. But despite allowing a high completion percentage, they're not giving up "the big play." Considering the loss of the famed "Legion of Boom," I think this group has performed just fine this season. I think tonight's game is going to be emblematic of what we've seen from the Seattle secondary recently. Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins is completing a career-high 71% of his pass attempts this year, but only at 6.7 yds per attempt. Cousins will get his completions in this game, but they'll do minimal damage. The Vikings offense has been held to an average of 18.0 PPG the L3 wks and has not gone over 24 in any of the L5 games. 10* Under Vikings/Seahawks

8* Under Jazz/Thunder (8:05 ET): I've admittedly been on the wrong end of a couple Jazz totals in the last week. Both games were against the Spurs, the more recent one taking place just last night. After they scored 139 points to ruin my Under last Tuesday, Utah finished w/ only 97 Sunday to thwart my Over play. (For the record, I was correct in taking the Under when they played Houston Thursday night. That was a 118-91 win). Tonight, they're in Oklahoma City to face a Thunder team that tops the league in defensive efficiency, allowing fewer than one point per possession (only team in the league that can claim that). Under is pretty easy call for me here. 

The Thunder will likely not be in a pleasant mood entering this game as they're looking to rebound from an embarrassing defeat to lowly Chicago on Friday. They gave up 114 pts to a 6-win team that ranks last in the league in offensive efficiency. A really poor 1st half is what cost them as they held the Bulls to just 44 pts after halftime. The loss was only the 4th in the L20 games for OKC, who previously had gone 13-0 SU vs. sub-.500 foes. I expect the defense to be a lot better here than it was in the 1st half vs. Chicago. The 114 pts scored by the Bulls was the most given up by OKC in any game in almost three weeks. The Bulls' 52.4% shooting was the highest percentage by any opponent in nearly four weeks. 

Utah was one of the top defensive teams in the league last year. They finished #2 in efficiency, but have slipped somewhat this year down to 11th. They are 20th in offensive efficiency, which is actually only one spot below the Thunder. Both teams also rank near the bottom of the league in three-point shooting percentage w/ OKC 28th at 31.7%. But while the Thunder are lacking on the offensive end when it comes to three-point shooting, they make up for it by defending the arc well. They allow just 32.8% shooting from distance for the year, which ranks right near the top of the league. The percentage is even lower here at home. 8* Under Jazz/Thunder

8* Detroit (7:05 ET): The Pistons are 0-4 SU/ATS their L4 games, including a loss at home last night to New Orleans. Their rotation is rather thin due to injuries, so few will give them a chance this evening against a Philadelphia team that is 13-1 SU at home (only loss is to Cleveland!). Plus, the Sixers just beat them in Detroit, 117-111 Friday night. While the Pistons had to play last night, Philly hasn't had to play since. But I believe the Pistons will keep this one close, even having a chance at possibly stealing the game outright! Take the points. 

In that game Friday night in the Motor City, the Pistons were 2.5-point favorites. They lost, so there has to be some adjustment by the oddsmakers, but they've shifted their respective views of the teams too far, in my opinion. Granted, the Sixers won that last meeting despite Joel Embiid not even suiting up. But they actually trailed by 12 at halftime. The Pistons wound up having an off-shooting night at 41.6% from the field and they missed 28 of 35 three-point attempts. This is a better team than what they've shown the L4 games. They're also 2-0 ATS when playing the second night of a back to back this year.

Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS when its off a SU win as a dog this season. Having just beaten the Pistons w/o Embiid, I can see them being overconfident coming into tonight. This is actually the 4th time these teams have met this season. Detroit took the first meeting, 133-132, in overtime. But they not only lost Friday, but here in Philly last month by 10 points. Still, I expect a focus effort from the road dog tonight. This is a team desperate for a win and they're not about to get blown out. Seven of Philadelphia's previous nine wins have come by single digits. 8* Detroit

10* Over Jazz/Spurs (7:05 ET): Earlier this week, I made the mistake of playing a matchup between these two Under the total. Pretty clearly, I had underestimated just how much San Antonio has regressed this season. The play also flew in the face of the recent history between the teams as now eight of the past nine matchups have gone Over the total. While the numbers are now higher, I learned from my mistake and expect that trend to continue. The Spurs have seen the Over cash in six straight games, as well as 10 of the last 11, due in large part to the massive defensive regression. Utah hung 139 points on them Tuesday. Of course, San Antonio can score too; something that was readily apparent in a 133-120 win over the Lakers on Friday. Take the Over here.

Utah followed up its win over San Antonio by beating Houston on Thursday, 118-91. I did win w/ the Under in that game as they held the Rockets below 39% from the field. Key was forcing 22 Houston turnovers and turning them into 33 points. The most impressive thing about the win is that the Jazz did it mostly w/o Rudy Gobert, who was ejected in the 2nd quarter for arguing with the officials. After a mostly disappointing first quarter of the season, the team has now won 4 of its last 5. Now they'll look to replicate Tuesday's shooting performance against San Antonio when they were 60% overall from the field and made a season-high 20 three-pointers. Utah is 6-1 Over this season following a double digit win.

The Spurs were down 12 in the 4Q to the Lakers on Friday, but rallied back for a double digit win on the back of eight players scoring in double figures. One of them was DeMar DeRozan, who went for a season-high 36 pts. The bench also outscored the Lakers' reserves 54-26. But I still worry about this team defensively as they've slipped all the way down to 28th in efficiency, a stunning collapse and completely uncharacteristic of what we've seen during the Greg Popovich era. Only Phoenix and Cleveland are lower in defensive efficiency right now. But the Spurs aren't the only team to have regressed defensively in 2018-19. Utah was #2 last season and now #10. San Antonio is 11-3 Over this season in games where they are the underdog. 10* Over Jazz/Spurs

10* Washington State (7:00 ET): This should be an extremely easy game for Wazzu at home. Both of the Cougars losses this year have been on the road. Here in Pullman, they're already 5-0 SU and averaging 89.2 PPG. They've covered the spread in all five games as well. Now the competition hasn't exactly been the stingiest, but it's not like we should expect much here from a bad Montana State side that has won only two games so far. The Bobcats have had to play most of their games on the road so far and are 0-5 SU outside of Bozeman, losing by an average of almost 23 PPG. I'll lay the points here. 

In its last game, Washington State won by 20 over Idaho. They were laying a similar number to what they are here and scored 90 points. They've now scored at least 80 in every home game. That kind of offensive prowess is going to put a lot of pressure on Montana State here as the Bobcats have topped 70 in only one road game so far (at Colorado State) and were held to just 35 by Indiana. A big key here (as it usually is) will be shooting from behind the arc. Wazzu is taking nearly 30 three-point shots per game, which is top 10 in the country. That high volume is going to be problematic for their opponent tonight, who often struggles to defend the 3-pt line.

Montana State has not played in 11 days, so don't be surprised if they come out rusty. Furthermore, they're off a rare win as well. They beat North Dakota in a close game, one that saw them rally back from a halftime deficit. The 81-76 win marked MSU's second fewest points allowed in a game this season, which is kind of frightening. The only opponent to score less against them was Presentation College, a NAIA school who went for 68. The Bobcats are allowing 84.1 PPG, which is bottom 15 in the country right now. I don't think the long layoff is going to be a benefit, rather it's more likely to be a hindrance. Washington State has covered 10 of its last 11 games against teams allowing 77 or more points per game. 10* Washington State

10* Under Eagles/Cowboys (4:25 ET): These NFC East rivals met four weeks ago w/ the Cowboys winning 27-20 as 7.5-pt road dogs. That result signaled a clear change in the direction of the division. Dallas hasn't lost since (4-0 SU/ATS L4 games) and is now in first place at 7-5 SU. The Eagles seemed dead & buried after taking a humiliating 48-7 loss down in New Orleans (worst loss EVER by a reigning SB champ), but they've now bounced back w/ B2B wins and covers. They're just a game back at 6-6 SU, so there's really no downplaying just how important this game really is. I look for a tight, low-scoring affair and am on the Under. 

Philly has seen the Under cash in five of its last six games. The exception was vs. the Cowboys, a game where they both gained and allowed 400+ total yards. The team looks a lot better right now, on both sides of the ball, particularly the offense w/ RB Darren Sproles back and WR Golden Tate in the fold. But this will be just the second "true" road game (excludes London) for the Eagles since October 11th. The other one was against the Saints when they were held to just seven points. This is an offense averaging only 21.5 PPG on the year. They're facing one of the top defenses this week, so don't be surprised if Carson Wentz and company really struggle in this one. 

The Dallas defense is legit. They allow only 18.6 PPG and just held the high-powered Saints to only 10 in this building last Thursday. The Saints failed to gain even 200 total yards in that TNF upset. At the same time, the Cowboys hardly have the most explosive offense. They scored only 13 pts vs. New Orleans and have been held below 20 in three of the last six games. On average, Cowboys' games are among the lowest scoring in the entire league, seeing just 39.2 points per contest. Only the Titans and Jaguars (who played Thursday night) are involved in lower scoring games, on average. The Under is 15-6 in Dallas' last 21 games overall. 10* Under Eagles/Cowboys

10* Baltimore (1:00 ET): While all the talk in Baltimore right now centers around the QB position, the Ravens have a significant edge defensively in this matchup and that will be what carries them this week in Kansas City. Currently, the Ravens stop unit is #1 in the league in both scoring and total defense, giving up just 17.8 points and 281.7 yards per game. That makes them extremely attractive to me as an underdog, especially one of this size. Compare those defensive numbers to Kansas City, who 31st in yards allowed (417.0 per game) and 27th in points allowed (27.3). I feel the road dog easily stays within the number here and I give them a great shot at the outright upset. 

Now the Chiefs do have the league's top scoring offense (ridiculous 37.0 PPG) and are #3 in yards (437.2). But they did give up 33 points to a hideous Raiders team last week (ATS win for me!). That's an Oakland offense that averages only 18.3 PPG. The Chiefs' defensive numbers have been significantly better at home, but that's because they've also drawn some of the weaker opponents on the schedule here. It also remains to be seen how this offense performs w/o RB Kareem Hunt. You know the story there. Hunt's services certainly weren't needed to get by the lowly Raiders. But the ferocious Ravens defense will be a different story altogether.

Baltimore is 3-0 since Lamar Jackson took over as the starting QB for an injured Joe Flacco. To me, it would be crazy to go back to Flacco. The offense has been able to run the ball far more effectively w/ Jackson in the game (239 YPG) due to Jackson being a threat to run himself (265 yds). The Ravens do have a greater sense of urgency than the Chiefs, whose inclusion in the playoffs is all but assured at this point. Baltimore is fighting for its playoff life, trying to get in either as a Wild Card or the AFC North winner. Only two offenses have topped 24 points against the Ravens defense this year. In his three starts so far, Jackson has benefited from that defense allowing an average of just 211 YPG. They'll keep this one close. 10* Baltimore

10* Atlanta (1:00 ET): Green Bay is a total mess right now. They've lost five of their six last games, including at home to Arizona last week, which cost Mike McCarthy his job. I think the notion that they'll receive some sort of "boost" in the wake of the firing of their head coach is "wishful thinking" on the part of the Cheeseheads. Of course, the Falcons have been every bit as disappointing as the Packers this year as they're 4-8 SU (GB is 4-7-1) and have lost four in a row (also 0-4 ATS). But they at least have a stable coaching staff, plus they're getting nearly a touchdown this week at Lambeau Field. I had this line closer to a field goal. Take the points.

Now four of Green Bay's last five losses have come by seven points or less. It would be unfair to pin the whole demise on McCarthy, but it was probably time for him to go, especially if he wasn't getting along w/ Aaron Rodgers. Joe Philbin takes over on an interim basis. You may remember him from the non-descript job he did in three-plus seasons as the HC down in Miami. (He had previously served as OC in GB during the Super Bowl season). Philbin is a lame-duck coach as the Packers are simply playing out the string. Despite having Rodgers, this team simply isn't very good. The offense has only managed 17 pts in B2B games and the defense has totally fallen off a cliff.

It's a somewhat similar story w/ the Falcons, who haven't even scored 20 points in a game since Week 9 when they were coming out of their bye. Last week was a new low as they were held to 131 total yards - at home - in a 26-16 loss to Baltimore. Now it should be pointed out that the Ravens have the #1 defense in football. So it should be easier sledding for Matt Ryan and company this week, even though they are on the road. Pretty clearly, there's enough disappointment to go around in this matchup, but I just don't see the Packers as being seven points better than the Falcons right now, even at home. 10* Atlanta

8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): Here's the other game where I was a winner in the first meeting. Like Colts-Texans, boy, has a lot changed since then. In this case, New Orleans was a 10-pt favorite at home against Tampa Bay. That doesn't sound out of the ordinary, but the fact that the Bucs won 48-40 sure was shocking at the time. It's even more shocking in retrospect considering the kind of season the Saints have had. They didn't lose again until last week, another time I happened to play against them. Obviously, with the revenge angle in full effect, the Saints are going to be a popular choice this week. But for a second time this season, they are overvalued against the Bucs. Take the points. 

Not only did the Saints win 10 in a row after losing to the Bucs, they were a covering machine too. A nine-game ATS win streak was also snapped last week in Dallas. The Cowboys' defense shockingly shut down Drew Brees and company to the tune of just 10 points and 176 total yards. That was easily a season-low in total yardage, but also the fewest points scored by the Saints in any game in three years. Now they're going up against a significantly worse defense here in Tampa. But they'll have to contend w/ an offense that has the ability to trade points w/ them. This is also another road game and outdoors to boot. 

The Bucs, not the Saints or Chiefs, lead the league in total yardage. Now some of that has to do w/ always being in shootouts because of the defense. But whether its been Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jameis Winston at QB, this offense has moved the ball. It was Fitzpatrick at the helm in the Week 1 upset of the Saints, but Winston hardly represents a downrgrade from the ultimately turnover-prone Fitzpatrick. Winston has guided the team to wins the L2 weeks, over the 49ers and Panthers, both here at home. The defense also showed up in both wins, giving up just 26 points total. Will they possibly give up that many (or more) in this game? There's a good chance. But the Bucs are getting a lot of points at home and I'll take 'em. Something I mentioned in last week's analysis is that the Saints had not been favored by more than a TD on the road since 2013 (didn't cover). Now it's happening in B2B weeks. Tampa Bay has not been a home dog of a TD or more since 2014. 8* Tampa Bay

8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): The Jets are a better team than Buffalo. That may not be saying much, but it's true. I know the Flyboys have one fewer win than the Bills (3 vs. 4) and were destroyed 41-10 at home by the Bills just a few weeks ago. However, despite the respective records and the destruction that occurred in the first meeting, the Jets still have a far better YTD point differential (-64 vs. -115). In fact, the Bills have the third worst point differential in all of football. For that first meeting, the Jets were seven-point favorites. Now they're getting about a field goal. I know it was a blowout, but the line shift has been too significant. Take the points.

This is the first time Buffalo will be favored this year. Every other team in the league has been favored at least twice. You've got a Bills' offense averaging an AFC-low 14.8 PPG. Expect them to win by a comfortable margin - against anyone - seems to be wishful thinking from my vantage point. I realize that they've played a little bit better of late. But they're coming in off a crushing defeat LW in Miami where rookie QB Josh Allen failed to hit a wide open receiver (who was in the end zone) on the final play. I still have serious doubts about Allen as a potential leader of this franchise. Also, might the recent uptick in performance lead to a - gasp - sense of overconfidence w/ the Bills (along w/ being favored for the first time). 

The Jets are also off a crushing loss, theirs coming at Tennessee. They led 16-0, but lost 26-22, giving up the GW TD in the final minute of a game they'd never trailed in previously. It was their sixth loss in a row overall and HC Todd Bowles is definitely coaching for his job at this point. It looks like rookie QB Sam Darnold will return this week, which is good. Josh McCown just didn't have it anymore. The Jets have lost 7 out of the last 10 meetings vs. the Bills, so the players and coaching staff should be out for revenge. I just don't think I could ever endorse Buffalo as a favorite. 8* NY Jets

analysis soon

8* San Diego State (10:30 ET): Both teams are off a loss here. San Diego State's was more shocking as they fell as six-point favorites to San Diego. Cal's loss also occurred at home, but they were seven-point dogs to a good San Francisco team. I don't know if the Bears are thinking about switching conferences (only kidding!), but they've actually taken on three straight West Coast Conference teams. While they did beat a bad Santa Clara squad, the Bears not only lost to USF, but at St. Mary's as well. Of course, the team SDSU just lost to also hails from the WCC. While it may seem like a relatively even matchup Sat night, I still believe the Aztecs have a significant edge and thus I'll lay the short number. 

These schools have met each of the last two seasons, right around this time of year. It was a neutral site game that San Diego State won back in 2016, 77-65 as 6.5-pt underdogs. Last year, Cal won on the road, 63-62 as 16.5-pt dogs. So it's a big revenge game for the Aztecs. Lucky for them, Cal has won just two of its eight games this season w/ five of those losses coming by double digits. It's a real bad scene in Berkeley right now as both wins came against teams outside my top 200. This team does not defend well as they've given up at least 76 points in all six losses. 

I mentioned earlier that SDSU suffered an outright loss in their last game, to San Diego. Looking at the second half of that game, it's pretty stunning how the Aztecs fell apart. They led by seven at halftime, but were outscored 47-28 in the second half. That kind of defensive collapse just doesn't happen w/ this team very often as opponents are shooting less than 40% against the Aztecs for the season. Fortunately, SDSU is not only 26-9-4 ATS off an ATS loss, but also 5-1 ATS off their previous six SU losses. This year has already seen them respond from a couple blowout losses (to Duke and Iowa State) w/ nice wins and covers over Xavier and Jackson State. Make no mistake about it, the Aztecs are the significantly better team here. 8* San Diego State

10* Dallas (6:05 ET): At this point, I think it's safe to say "Houston, we have a problem" as the Rockets continue to struggle at the outset of the 2018-19 season. Thursday's 27-point loss in Utah marked not only the second straight game where the team failed to score 100 points, but it was also their sixth loss in the last eight games overall. They've been even worse at the pay window recently, going 2-7 ATS their L9. Tonight, they're matched up w/ a Dallas team that has been absolutely sensational at home this year (10-2 SU AND ATS), yet still laying points. I'll go w/ the Mavs as home underdogs in this one as they recently beat the Rockets - in Houston - by 20 pts. 

That 20 pt win in H-town saw Dallas shoot a blistering 54.1% for the game, including 17 of 34 three-pointers. They scored 74 pts in the 1H and it was never close after that. As you can probably tell, this is a much improved team this year after the 24-win disaster of a season ago. They are already half way to that win total this year and we've played only a quarter of the games. The team is coming off their own blowout loss (26 pts), to New Orleans, but that was on the road where the improvement hasn't really translated. At home, they've won eight in a row, beating the likes of Oklahoma City, Golden State, Boston, the Clippers and Portland. They average 115.2 PPG here. 

Meanwhile, a Houston team that led the league w/ 65 regular season wins last year has fallen off rather dramatically. They've been held under 100 pts seven times, which is more than double the number of times that happened over the course of 82 games LY. James Harden & Chris Paul went a combined 10 for 27 against Utah and the supporting cast simply is not as strong this year. Right now, the Rockets are one of only four teams in the Western Conference that have been outscored on the season. That puts them in a rather precarious position as the only team below them in the standings is Phoenix! The Rockets have not fared well on the road this year, going just 5-9 ATS, including 3-6 as the favorite. They're also 2-7 ATS after allowing 115+ pts in their last game. 10* Dallas

8* Vegas (4:05 ET): These teams have not met since LY's playoffs when the Golden Knights delivered a shocking sweep of the Kings. Needless to say, they won't be meeting in the playoffs again this year. That's because it seems as if LA has never recovered from said sweep as they have fallen on some real hard times this year. At this point, I think it's very fair to call them the "worst team in the league" as they have the (very) unenviable distinction of having both the fewest points (21) and worst goal differential (-28). I expect Vegas to show their division rival no mercy Saturday afternoon. 

After its magical run to the Stanley Cup Finals a year ago (as an expansion team!), it was only logical for Vegas to slip a bit too. They probably won't be back in the Stanley Cup Finals again this year and maybe they don't even win the Pacific Division. But they're certainly playing like a playoff team right now w/ wins in seven of the last eight games. They just won as huge favorites on Thursday over another bad team, Chicago. Now that was at home where the Knights have always played better in their brief existence. But winning at the Staples Center shouldn't prove too difficult as two other road teams, Arizona and New Jersey, have already done so this week.

Vegas has gotten 14 goals from 11 different players in its last four games. Meanwhile, the Kings are last in the league in scoring (2.1 goals per game) and really struggling offensively right now. They'd been held to two goals or fewer in five straight games before losing 6-3 to New Jersey on Thursday. But that's a Devils team that had conceded 28 goals in its previous six games, so I wouldn't look for the "offensive surge" to continue. Because this is the front end of a back to back, Vegas will likely opt to start Marc-Andre Fleury in goal tomorrow vs. Dallas. While Malcolm Subban has not started since 11/19, I think this is a good spot for him against the lowest scoring team in the league. 8* Vegas

10* Loyola Chi (4:00 ET): With all due respect to Sister Jean, we all knew Loyola Chicago would take a step back this year. I mean, how could they not after that incredible Final Four run last March? The Ramblers went an amazing 32-6 SU last season en route to San Antonio, but knew they wouldn't be sneaking up on anyone this year and have already dropped four games. One of them, I was against them in what was a huge revenge game for their opponent (Nevada). The Ramblers now come into this game as losers of three of their last four, having lost outright as a 5-pt home favorite to Ball State on Wednesday. 

Maryland is one of EIGHT Big 10 teams currently ranked in the top 25. That conference is absolutely loaded this year as there's a 9th team - Indiana - probably worthy of Top 25 consideration as well. While I just said that Loyola Chi "wouldn't be sneaking up on anyone" this year, don't be surprised if the Terps aren't taking them as seriously as they should. Maryland is coming off a series of high-profile games, all of them going down to the wire, and may not have as much "left in the tank" as they'd like. They just lost at Purdue on Thursday by two. It was their second loss in three games as they fell by five to Virginia as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. This is a young team. Seven of the top eight players in the rotation are either freshman or sophomores. 

Note this is technically a neutral site game, taking place in Baltimore. I think that's a big break for Loyola not having to go into College Park. As for those eight ranked Big 10 teams, I happen to think Maryland is the weakest of the lot and probably shouldn't even be ranked. Missing eight of its final nine shots, the Terps shot less than 30% in the second half vs. Purdue and that loss will be hard to shake. Meanwhile, Loyola is an underdog for only the 2nd time this year (first was vs. Nevada) and should be motivated back in a more comfortable role. Ball State shot 57% against them, which isn't happening again here. The Ramblers are 15-7 ATS when taking points the L3 seasons. They are also 4-2 SU L6 vs. the Top 25 and 10-2 SU L12 on a neutral court. Take the points. 10* Loyola Chi

10* Army (3:00 ET): For the first time since 2001, Army is favored to win this game. They should be. The Knights are 9-2 SU, reigning C-in-C Trophy winners and simply a much better team than Navy this season. Pardon the terrible pun, but the Midshipmen have been somewhat "lost at sea" in 2018. They won't be going to a bowl game this year, the first time that's been the case since 2002, which was the year they started their historic 14-year win streak over Army. That came to an end two years ago in Baltimore. I was on Army that day, as 5.5-pt underdogs, as they won 21-17. Last year was another Army win, this time 14-13 as 2.5 pt dogs. Lay the points as the Knight deserve to be double-digit favorites in this one.

Navy enters this game w/ a 3-9 record, their worst SU mark in any season since ... 2002. That was Paul Johnson's first year in Annapolis and he just retired from the Georgia Tech job. This particular Navy team is very bad defensively. They allow almost 35 points per game while also giving up 6.65 yards per play, the 11th worst mark in the entire country. While any matchup of two service academies (including Air Force) is typically low-scoring, I believe Army will still be able to do plenty of scoring in this one. Since winning a game in a driving rainstorm vs. Memphis in Week 2, only one FBS opponent (Temple) has failed to score more than 29 points against the Midshipmen. Navy has regularly blown out this season w/ six of its nine losses coming by double digits. The Memphis win was fortunate (weather). Since beating FCS Lehigh the following week, the Middies are just 1-8 SU the L9 games w/ that one win coming against a 3-9 Tulsa team, at home. 

Army gives up only 18.7 PPG (17th in FBS) and 15.5 first downs per game (6th), giving them a huge edge on the defensive side of the ball. Their only two losses this year were to Oklahoma and Duke, both on the road, and they took the Sooners into overtime! Since that OT loss in Norman, the Black Knights are 7-0 SU, winning five of those games by at least two touchdowns. We know these teams run similar, if not identical, offenses. But Navy has posted its worst rushing season in a decade, averaging just 5.0 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Army can actually turn to the pass as they average 10.5 yards per attempt through the air. Third downs are also key here w/ Army leading the country at a 57% conversion rate. Navy is only 39%. 10* Army

10* Anaheim (10:05 ET): I'm not entirely sure as to how GOOD of a team the Ducks are, but they're certainly a HOT one right now. I took them Wednesday, here at home, as my *10* Game of the Week. They won 4-2 over Chicago and have now won five in a row overall. Tonight, they welcome in Carolina and given the Ducks' recent form, the moneyline for this matchup surprises me. Anaheim may have its issues offensively, but the Hurricanes have actually scored a fewer number of goals on the season. Plus, the Ducks have beaten them five straight times, once earlier this season in Carolina. This is an easy call, given the price. 

The big key to the Ducks' success this year has been goaltending. They are 7th in goals allowed and have the best 5 vs 5 save percentage in the league currently. Both John Gibson and Ryan Miller have save percentages above .925, so we'll be fine w/ whomever is between the pipes tonight. Also, the offense has picked up a bit w/ 10 goals scored in the L2 games. Note that before beating Chicago on Wednesday, the team's last four wins had all come out on the road, two of them against Tampa Bay and Washington, the East's two division leaders. Another was at Carolina, 2-1, in overtime. Like I said earlier, that win makes the Ducks a perfect 5 for 5 vs. the 'Canes over the L3 seasons.

Anaheim got off to decent start to the season before injuries took their toll and led to a seven-game losing streak. Clearly, they have turned things around. Meanwhile, Carolina is trending in a different direction. They've lost three straight, starting w/ the game vs. Anaheim. They've managed just two goals during the streak, which is bad news facing a stingy opponent like Anaheim. Tonight also marks the end of a three-game trek in Southern California, which is one of the toughest road trips in the league. After being shutout in LA Saturday, they lost to San Jose 5-1 on Wednesday. Over the L5 games, Carolina has just five goals. They typically have some of the worst goaltending in the league, so that's another edge for the home team in this one. 10* Anaheim

10* Under Raptors/Nets (7:35 ET): Toronto has the best record in the league currently at 21-5 straight up. They've lost just one time in the L10 games and it was to Denver, the team w/ the best record in the Western Conference. That defeat took place on Monday (at home), but the Raptors quickly rebounded w/ a 113-102 win over Philadelphia. Tonight, the opponent is much easier, but they have to hit the road where on average their games are a little bit lower scoring. Toronto's working on a three-game Under streak as they head to Brooklyn on Friday and I think it continues. 

The Nets lost an absolute heartbreaker Wednesday night, falling here at home to the Thunder 114-112. It's not just that they fell only two points short against one of the best teams in the league. Brooklyn led by as many as 23 points. They were outscored 39-19 in the 4th quarter w/ Russell Westbrook scoring 25 by himself. Though the Nets still covered (were 6 pt underdogs), the SU loss was their eighth in a row. I will point out that five of those have been by six points or less, so it's not as if the team is being blown out. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they're competitive again tonight. 

But this is a play on the total, so we need to talk about scoring. Brooklyn's slide coincides w/ the loss of their leading scorer, Caris LeVert, back on November 12th. The team is just 2-10 SU since. Not having LeVert is clearly affecting the team down the stretch of games as they are shooting just 39.5% in the fourth quarter their L5 games at home. Over the L5 games overall, they are averaging just over 102 PPG. Toronto has less issues scoring, but it does average several points fewer per game on the road as opposed to at home. This total is simply too high. 10* Under Raptors/Nets

10* Under New Mexico/St. Mary's (7:00 ET): This game is being played at Staples Center as part of the Air Force Reserve Hall of Fame Classic. It is the first of three games tonight in LA w/ the "main event" being a battle of unbeatens between Nevada & Arizona State. To me, it's the matchup where there's the most value and that value exists with the total. New Mexico has gone Over in all six games this year. St. Mary's has gone Over in every game in which it has been favored (7x total) and they are laying points here. But I see these streaks coming to an end Friday as this O/U line is simply too high. I'm on the Under. 

New Mexico just gave up 100 pts in its last game, a 35-point loss to in-state rival New Mexico State. That certainly has played a major role in why this O/U line is so high. In addition to playing horrendous defense, the Lobos shot just 28.1% from the floor. Now they should obviously shoot better tonight at Staples, but at the same time, they're not going to give up nearly as many as points. For as many as they gave up Tuesday, there were still "only" 165 total pts scored in the game. That was also their second time facing NMSU already, the first being a 98-94 shootout (lost) in Albuquerque. Tonight will be the toughest opponent they have had to face all year, at least defensively speaking. 

St. Mary's had no problems making shots in their last game as they sank 59% of their field goal attempts in a 93-61 blowout of Bethune-Cookman. It was their third straight game shooting 50% or better and second in a row hovering around 60%. That's really impressive, but also not sustainable. Also, all three of those games were played at home. I referenced the Gaels' defense earlier and they are holding opponents to just 30.4% shooting from three-point range. That's key here as this is the highest total for any SMU game so far this season. In it's two neutral site games thus far, St. Mary's has shot just 33% and averaged 60 pts. Playing in a larger "gym" than usual, look for both side to struggle shooting the basketball and the Over streaks to come to an end. 10* Under New Mexico/St. Mary's

8* Under Rockets/Jazz (10:35 ET): Two Western Conference teams that are desperate for a win face off tonight in the second game of the TNT doubleheader. Both Houston and Utah are surprisingly below .500 as we've passed the quarter pole of this season. I think it's safe to call them the two biggest disappointments in the league right now, at least given preseason expectations. When they last met, it was a very low-scoring affair w/ the Jazz winning 100-89 on the road. I think we're in store for another relatively low-scoring game tonight, maybe not quite as low-scoring as the first go-around, but the Under is still the play here.

I played both of these teams Under the total in their last games. With Houston, it worked out well. They were held to 91 points, including just 29 in the second half, in a loss to Minnesota. That result snapped the Rockets' eight-game Over streak. Now certainly this team is fully capable of producing far more than 29 points in a half. But for tonight, I expect a more even distribution of scoring across the two halves. They had 62 pts in the 1H vs. Minnesota Monday night and that's about as unlikely to be repeated here as the 29 pt 2H. Also in handicapping this rematch, one thing that's different about the Rockets from the last time they faced Utah is no Carmelo Anthony (thank goodness for that!). 

Playing Utah Under the total on Tuesday did not work out so well for me. They blistered the suddenly defensively incompetent Spurs for 139 points on 60.7% shooting. Perhaps more impressive is that the Jazz also shot better than 60% from three-point range in the contest, making a season-high 20 three-pointers! They aren't likely to repeat that performance though as for the season, the team shoots 46.4% overall and 33.8% from 3-pt range. Those aren't terrible numbers, just pretty average. I expect the three-point shooting in particular to decrease here, both in terms of percentage and volume. While Utah may not be as stout defensively this year compared to 2017-18, they certainly held Houston in check the first time. It's shocking to see the Jazz only 3-6 SU at home this year and perhaps almost as surprising that the Over is 8-1 in those games. But Houston is 24-11 Under the L35 times it has been an underdog, which isn't often. 8* Under Rockets/Jazz 

10* UC Riverside (10:00 ET): UC Riverside isn't having the best start to the season (just 2-7 SU). But here's the thing: that was to be expected. They haven't been favored in a single game and they've played just twice at home. Once was a win against non-DI team UC Merced. The other was a 10-pt loss to Cal Baptist. The Highlanders' only other win was an upset (as 5.5-pt dogs) of Elon in a Holiday Tournament. They're finally back home Thursday, hosting a Pepperdine team that is laying WAY too many points considering they aren't very good either. Take the points in this one.

The Waves of Pepperdine do own a mark of 5-1 ATS. They're also 5-3 straight up. But they just dropped a non-lined game to CS-Northridge, at home, 90-83. Pepperdine blew a double-digit lead as defense continues to be a problem for them. They're allowing 77.6 PPG so far, which is just awful, and one of their wins (Miami OH) saw them miraculously rally back from an 18-point deficit in the second half to win 88-80. Something that you may not be aware of is that the Waves won all of six games LY. So Lorenzo Romar has the program at least pointed in the right direction in his second stint coaching the team. 

But this is just the second "true" road game for the Waves w/ the first being an 88-80 loss to Northern Colorado. It'll also mark the first time they've been a "true" road favorite since the 2015-16 season! They've won a total of just 15 games the past two seasons and are 1-27 SU their last 28 road games! So you can see where I'd be of the belief that this is far too many points for them to lay. UC Riverside isn't exactly Duke, but they are sufficient enough to cover this generous spread. The Highlanders also have revenge here for an 11-pt loss LY at Pepperdine where the Waves took and made 13 more free throws. Pepperdine does deserve to be favored here, but not by this much. 10* UC Riverside

10* Under Jaguars/Titans (8:20 ET): These AFC South rivals are similar in that both are capable of playing outstanding defense while at the same time being pretty inept offensively. Even in a 26-22 affair last week, the unheralded Titans' defense played well. The Jets were spotted an early 16-0 lead in that one and while it will be Marcus Mariota and the offense that will get the credit, it was really the defense that deserves most of the credit for that come from behind victory. Note the Jets' only TD came from the defense, off a Mariota INT. From there, the Titans allowed only five FG's (one on a negative yardage drive) and 280 total yds. Of course, Jacksonville was involved in the lowest scoring game of this NFL season last week, a 6-0 win over the Colts.

That was quite the defensive performance from the Jags, who were the first team ever to shutout Andrew Luck. Luck and the Colts offense came in red hot too; 4th in the league in scoring while averaging 34.6 PPG during a five-game win streak. Of course, it almost went for naught as the Cody Kessler "led" offense produced very little - just two field goals and 211 total yds. Kessler threw for only 150 yards in earning his first ever win as a NFL starter. Excluding a kneel down at the end of the 1st half, the Jags' other 10 drives resulted in two field goals, seven punts and a fumble. I wouldn't expect much more this week from Kessler, whose only other starting experience as a pro came w/ a Cleveland team that went 1-15 SU in 2016. This is a Jags offense that has been held to single digits four times this year. Even w/ RB Fournette back, they just aren't capable of much.

One of those times was in a 9-6 loss to Tennessee back in Week 3. Looking back, that loss begat the team's eventual 2018 downfall. Last week was just the second win in the L10 games. Considering what went down in the season's first meeting (w/ Blake Bortles starting instead of Kessler), I don't see a Titans defense that permits just 20.4 PPG, having any difficulty stopping Jacksonville again. At home, the Titans are even stingier, giving up just 18.6 PPG. In terms of offense, we're dealing w/ two of the lowest scoring teams in the league here as Tennessee ranks 28th in PPG (18.4) while Jacksonville is 30th (16.9). Neither offense had more than 250 total yds in the first meeting. 10* Under Jaguars/Titans

8* Over Spurs/Lakers (10:35 ET): Well, it was a bad read last night (by me) w/ the Under on Spurs-Jazz. Clearly, San Antonio's defense has regressed far more than anyone could have imagined. It was their third time giving up 130+ points in the last six games. (By the way, they also topped 130 themselves once during that stretch). Bottom line is that a team who for so long was a mainstay at the top of the defensive efficiency ratings, is no longer any good on that end of the floor. Tonight, they face a Lakers team that has gone Under in its last eight game as well as 14 out of its last 16. A matchup with the Spurs is just the recipe to change that. Take the Over here.

After a slow start (should have been expected), LeBron has the Lakers playing pretty well of late. The team has won three straight, all by double digits and all at home. They're actually up to fifth in the Western Conference right now. Tonight's spread might be an overlay as the only teams they've been asked to lay more points to in a game this season are Atlanta and Phoenix. Also, the Lakers are 0-2 against the Spurs this year w/ those two losses coming by a total of five points. The first one was an absolute shootout w/ the Spurs winning 143-142 in overtime (LeBron missed two free throws late). The rematch, which took place in San Antonio, was a lower-scoring affair w/ SA prevailing 110-106. 

The total for this game is a lot lower than it was for the second meeting. That's probably because of the recent rash of Lakers' Unders. But San Antonio is 8-1 Over its last nine games and giving up a ton of points on the road this year. The Lakers are 14-6 SU since that first loss to the Spurs and should have a productive offensive night here. They scored 120 Sunday vs. a lousy Phoenix team. Note they were w/o third leading scorer Brandon Ingram for both previous matchups vs. the Spurs. The fact that San Antonio is in the second night of a back to back won't mean much here as HC Greg Popovich pulled his top two scorers - DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge in the 3Q last night. It was only two games ago that the Spurs had a historically great shooting night, becoming the 1st team in 23 years to shoot better than 60% overall, 70% from three-point range and 90% from the FT line. The Over is 9-3 when they are an underdog this season. 8* Over Spurs/Lakers

10* Anaheim (10:35 ET): Guess what? I'm going to keep playing against Chicago! The oddsmakers have simply been too slow to react to just how bad the Blackhawks have gotten. Going back to November 23rd, I've played against this one-mighty franchise three times and come away w/ three wins. The latest was on Sunday as they fell 3-2 at home to Calgary. It was Chicago's fourth loss in a row overall as things continue to grow more dire by the day. The team is 3-12-3 overall in its last 18 games, dropped to 30th in goals allowed and special teams have been just horrendous w/ the 31st ranked power play and 29th ranked penalty kill. I see no evidence that a turnaround is forthcoming. They were outshot 41-24 by Calgary on Sunday.

Making a Chicago turnaround even less likely here is the fact that Anaheim has won four in a row. All four of those Ducks wins were on the road too. Traditionally, this has always been a strong home team, although their record at "The Pond" this year is just 7-8 SU. But five of those eight losses have come beyond regulation, which is the most suffered by any team on home ice this season. In fact, only one other team has more than three. While still ranking near the bottom of the league in goals per game (30th), the Ducks did score six times in a win at Washington Sunday. That game saw them rally back from a 5-1 deficit, marking the 1st time in 20 seasons that any team in the league was able to win a game on the road in which it trailed by four or more goals.

This is also a revenge game for Anaheim. Back when they were in the midst of a seven-game losing streak in late-October, they dropped a game in Chicago, 3-1. But unlike the Blackhawks, things have turned around for the Ducks. They've won six of the last seven games to move into second place in the Pacific Division. Their YTD goal differential (-13) still leaves a lot to be desired, but it's nowhere near as bad as Chicago, who is a league worst -27 in that department. On the road, the Blackhawks are giving up more than four goals per game this year and over the L5 games, they've allowed an average of 5.2. The Ducks are top 10 in goals allowed and simply a much better team at this point in time. 10* Anaheim

10* Nebraska (9:00 ET): I'm alot higher on this Cornhuskers team than most people. They finally cracked the Top 25 this week, but probably should be a lot higher. They're 7-1 SU w/ the only loss coming to a very good Texas Tech team, at a neutral site, on a poor shooting night. I took them when they went to Clemson and won as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. They followed that up by beating Illinois 75-60 in the Big 10 opener. They jumped all over the Illini, racing out to a 13-2 lead and never trailed. They never led by less than nine points the entire second half. The biggest key was the frequency w/ which they got to the FT line. They went 25 of 30 from the line for the game. For the year, Nebraska is now outscoring teams by 23.8 points per game.

Minnesota is a team I faded in their Big 10 opener. The Gophers had to go to Columbus to face Ohio State and lost 79-59. The game played out similarly to Nebraska-Illinois, only w/ the Gophers playing the role of the Illini. The score was 26-7 a little over 10 minutes in and never really got close after that. Perhaps the most incredible thing of all is that Minnesota missed all 13 three-point attempts it took. At home, that's highly unlikely to be repeated, but note Nebraska can be just as effective defensively as Ohio State. In fact, the Cornuskers rank slightly higher than the Buckeyes in defensive efficiency (17th vs. 21st) and scoring (4th vs. 17th).

Nebraska is 6-1-1 ATS on the season. Thus, you'd think they'd carry more respect in the marketplace. Yet they're only a small favorite against an inferior foe that just got blown out. I realize it's a "true" road game, in conference, but the Cornhuskers already went to Clemson (ranked at the time) and won. Minnesota has been dreadful in its two road games while going 6-0 SU at home or neutral sites. But even the home court can't save them here as Nebraska will own a substantial edge on the glass and their smothering defense figures to turn the Gophers over w/ great regularity. Something to keep in mind is that the 'Huskers won here LY, 91-85 as a 3.5-pt dog.  10* Nebraska 

8* Orlando (7:05 ET): Something is going to have to give in this battle of hot teams. Denver just might be the best team in the West right now as they've won and covered six straight, many of them against top tier teams. They just beat Toronto, on the road, 106-103 as seven-point underdogs. Not to be outdone, Orlando has been on quite the ATS role itself. Last night's outright win in Miami puts them at 11-1-1 ATS their L13 games. They are 8-5 straight up during that same stretch. Coincidentally, the only game they lost ATS was against Denver back on November 23rd. That was the start of the six-game road trip that just concluded last night. I look for a much better result in tonight's rematch as the Magic are back home. Take the points. 

Even in a weak Eastern Conference, Orlando has not made the playoffs since Dwight Howard left town. That's a long time. It's been six years and only Sacramento and Phoenix have longer active droughts. But w/ LeBron James out West, the East is more wide open this year and the Magic have a legit shot at finishing in the top eight. Last night's win got them to .500 and they're currently in seventh place (actually lead the Southeast Division!). They beat the Heat by allowing just 90 points, their second straight strong defensive performance, although the other one was against a short-handed and downtrodden Suns team. It also helped they shot 50% from three-point range last night. For a third time, they turned in a quarter w/ a point differential of +18 or better.

Denver obviously presents a greater challenge. The Nuggets have won and covered the L5 meetings w/ the Magic, including the 25-point beatdown in the Mile High City two weeks ago. That game was relatively close until the 4th quarter. But this one occurs smack dab in the middle of a five-game road trip for the Nuggets. While they have been on a roll, do note that four of the six wins in this Denver win streak have come by single digits and 6 of the team's 16 wins this season have been by five points or fewer. Also, they won't have leading scorer Gary Harris Jr in the lineup tonight as he left the Toronto game Monday w/ a hip injury. Though they failed to cover against Denver the first time, Orlando is 12-5 ATS as an underdog this season otherwise. All signs point to this rematch being a lot closer w/ the Magic having a great shot at pulling the outright upset. 8* Orlando

10* Arizona (10:35 ET): As recently as last year, a money line like this for a Coyotes-Kings matchup would be have been borderline unfathomable. Certainly, Los Angeles would have had far more respect from the oddsmakers and needless to say, I wouldn't even dream about taking the 'Yotes at this price on the road. But much has changed here in 2018-19. For starters, the Kings are terrible. I have them as one of the worst teams in the entire league, a distinction that can be confirmed by the fact they are currently tied for the fewest number of wins (9). They also have the second worst goal differential at -24. Meanwhile, Arizona is much improved. Most of that improvement is owed to the blue line and goaltending, which has gotten the job done whether at even strength or short-handed. 

The 'Yotes come into this game top five in the league in goals allowed and have the best penalty killing unit. That'll go a long way for a team that admittedly still struggles on the offensive end. The team has won three in a row, including beating Nashville and Minnesota on the road. There were no offensive struggles in the last game where they destroyed the Blues 6-1. I can't believe I'm saying this right now, but there actually is a viable path for Arizona to make the playoffs in a weak Pacific Division. The team did win four in a row earlier this season and now has a chance to produce a second win streak of 4+ games in the same season for the 1st time since 2011-12.

We got a glimpse of the "old" Kings their last time out on the ice as they shutout Carolina 2-0 on Sunday. Jonathan Quick was back in goal and stopped all 34 shots he saw. Admittedly, injuries to Quick and #2 goalie Jack Campbell have - quite literally - hurt this club severely. However, it's not like Quick has been solid between the pipes this year. He carries a save percentage of just .888 into tonight's game. Arizona is dealing with its own set of injuries to its goaltending battery, but has gotten strong play out of backup Adin Hill, who has stopped 60 out of the 61 shots he's faced since being called into duty. The Kings had two shutout wins this season prior to Sunday and lost the next time out both times. 10* Arizona

10* Under Spurs/Jazz (9:05 ET): These teams played four times last year and the Over hit in three of the games. But those were low totals, all sub-200 pts, a range you're probably not going to see very much this season. Alas, it's a much higher total this go around for the Spurs & Jazz, which also makes sense when you consider how both teams have regressed defensively. Last year, these teams were 2nd (Jazz) and 4th (Spurs) in defensive efficiency. This year, they've slipped to 13th and 27th respectively. The Over has hit in seven of San Antonio's last eight games as they've regressed to a shocking degree. This all being said, I still think tonight's number is too high. Take the Under.

After giving up 128 or more points three times in a four-game stretch, it was time for the Spurs to give their opponents a taste of their own medicine as they dropped 131 in a win over Portland on Sunday. They got a season-high 36 points from DeMar DeRozan and shot a blistering 60.2% from the floor overall. Even more ridiculous is how prolific they were from three-point range. They attempted only 15 shots from behind the arc, but made 11 of them! Needless to say, they probably won't shoot that high of a percentage from distance in any other game the rest of this season. Something else that happened in that game is the teams combined to go 36 of 38 from the free throw line. That's also highly irregular in today's NBA. Bottom line is that all the offensive numbers from the Spurs' last game are due to drop severely. It was the 1st time since 1995 that a team shot 60% overall, 70% from 3-pt range & 90% from the FT line. Overall, their recent numbers - both offensively and defensively - are way out of whack. 

I think it's fair to say that Utah has been a giant disappointment so far this year. With San Antonio, you knew they'd fall off some w/ the entire core group of players from the last few years "vacating the premsis." But the Jazz came into 2018-19 w/ high hopes. From November 12th to the 26th, they were held under 100 pts six times in a nine-game stretch. That's bad. Perhaps most shocking of all is the team's 2-6 SU home record. The Over is 7-1 here, but I suspect better defense is forthcoming. The Jazz have played a ton out on the road lately, so they may still be a bit tired heading into tonight, which will affect their shooting. 10* Under Spurs/Jazz

8* Northeastern (6:45 ET): N'eastern might be down some bodies, but give the Huskies a ton of credit for still competing. They're actually missing three starters from LY's team, not because of graduation mind you, but rather due to injuries. This includes their top two scorers, Vasa Pusica and Shawn Occeus. You'd think that they'd be struggling in light of this rash of injuries, but instead they're off B2B wins, both coming by double digits! They won at Bucknell by 18 on November 28th, then returned home to down Eastern Michigan by 14 on Saturday. The task will obviously be far greater tonight in the Carrier Dome, but Northeastern is getting too many points here.

Syracuse is 5-2 SU. Given "brand recognition," it's not a surprise they drew votes for the latest Top 25 poll, though they didn't quite make it in. I don't think they belong there anyway, even though they did go to Ohio State and record an impressive 72-62 road win last week (part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge). That was followed up w/ a 63-55 win against Cornell over the weekend. But be wary of the Orange in this spot as they have a lookahead to long-time rival Georgetown this weekend. That game has always carried significant meaning throughout the tenure of Jim Boeheim, who is now in his 42nd year at the helm (incredible!). Also, last week's efforts were not exactly indicative of what we saw from this team in the first four games, which included losses to both UConn and Oregon.

Syracuse came nowhere close to covering the 21.5-pt spread against Cornell on Saturday. They are now just 2-4 ATS as favorites. Now, one of Boeheim's sons plays for Cornell (the other plays for him!), so you could argue the coach may have taken it easy. I don't think that's the case, however. The 'Cuse shot 50% overall for the game, yet still couldn't manage to pull away. Normally, this is not a great shooting team. They are just 41.9% overall for the year, including a woeful 29.1% from 3-pt range. Meanwhile, six of Northeastern's top seven scorers can shoot the three and they are 41.1% from behind the arc. Three-point shooting can play a huge role w/ a double digit spread and I think the underdog easily stays within the number here. 8* Northeastern

8* Puck Line Ottawa (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I'm taking the Senators at +1.5. Ottawa got off to a dreadful start to the year, but has somewhat turned things around recently w/ a three-game win streak. Meanwhile, Montreal's season has gone the opposite way. They started 4-1-1, but have begun to fade, losing six of their last seven games. The last three losses have all taken place here at home. So I certainly don't support the notion that they're likely to win here by more than one goal. These Canadian rivals share common opponents their last two games. Both beat the Rangers at home. But while Ottawa dominated San Jose on 12/1 (won 6-2), the Habs lost to the Sharks the following night by a score of 3-1. Again, take the +1.5. 

Tonight's game marks the front end of a home and home between these teams. Ottawa has admittedly not been sharp on the road this year where it is just 3-8-1 SU overall and giving up a frightening average of 5.1 goals per game. The Sens' biggest problem is that they allow far too many shots on goal. They are allowing the most per game in the league right now (37.9) and as a result are giving up the most goals per game (4.04) as well. But lately, they've been a lot better, giving up just five goals total in the L3 games. Credit is due to goalie Craig Anderson, who has made 63 saves on 65 shots the L2 games, including a shutout of the Rangers. He has a .933 save percentage his L4 starts as well.

Montreal lost the first matchup w/ Ottawa this season, 4-3, twice blowing a two-goal advantage. That was on the road, but I'm not expecting any better from them at home. This is a team that's been held to two goals or fewer in five of its last six contests. Against San Jose on Sunday, they fell behind quickly and never recovered. Goaltending has been an issue for the Canadiens all season long w/ a collective save percentage of just .895. Not only have the Habs dropped 20 of their past 27 division games, but they have also lost four straight times when playing for a third time in a four-day span. That's the situation they find themselves in tonight. 8* Puck Line Ottawa (+1.5)

10* Washington (8:20 ET): Just a little over a week ago, the Eagles seemed to be dead and buried. They were coming off a humiliating 48-7 loss to the Saints (biggest lost EVER for reigning SB champ!) and down 19-3 at home to the last place Giants. But then, they "woke up," rallying for a 25-22 win despite getting outgained by the G-Men. Now, things appear to be looking up in Philly. Sure, the team is only 5-6 SU, a far cry from LY's record. But they're favored Monday night and a win would keep them within just one game of first place Dallas, who they'll play next week. At the very worst, the second Wild Card in the NFC is still in play as only five teams in the conference currently have more than six victories. But are we THAT sure the Eagles are back?

Washington's season seems to be trending in the opposite direction as Philly. They were in first place just two weeks ago, at 6-3 SU. But two losses later and there are more questions than answers. The biggest one is at the quarterback position where the team is still trying to get over the shock of losing Alex Smith for the rest of the season. I think veteran Colt McCoy has come in and played admirably though despite little time to prepare. He led two scoring drives in a 23-21 loss to Houston, then last week (on a very short turnaround) he completed 24 of 38 passes for 268 yards against Dallas (did have 3 INT's). I'm not convinced that this team is more than marginally worse w/ McCoy at QB than they were with Smith. Remember that Dallas defense just held Drew Brees in check!

Though it gave up 31 pts to a surging Cowboys team on Thanksgiving, the Redskins still have a pretty good defense. That defense seems to travel well too as it gives up just 19.2 PPG on the road. I would not be surprised if this is a low-scoring game, which obviously then favors the underdog. The Eagles have not been good in the favorite role this season, going just 2-7 ATS w/ five outright losses. They have also failed to cover five straight home games. The Redskins are 6-2 ATS as underdogs this year w/ five outright wins. So the respective roles seem to suit Washington much better. The Eagles did sweep the season series LY, but it's pretty clear they aren't as strong a team in 2018. Remember they are decimated by injuries in the secondary. The defense is also allowing a league worst 6.03 yards per rush the L6 wks. McCoy and Washington have also had plenty of time to prepare here, having not played since Thanksgiving. Take the points. 10* Washington

10* Under Rockets/T'wolves (8:05 ET): Maybe Houston finally has things turned around? Things started getting better w/ the decision to put Carmelo Anthony "on ice." Melo still hasn't been traded, but it's been a clear case of "addition by subtraction," simply by making him inactive. The team rattled off five consecutive victories in mid-November before another swoon set in as they lost four in a row. But back to back blowouts (over San Antonio and Chicago) seem to have things pointed in the right direction as they're at least back to .500. They've also gotten back to scoring plenty of points, something we became accustomed to seeing throughout last season when they were neck & neck w/ Golden State for the top offensive team in the league.

Minnesota had its own "problem child" to start the season, that being Jimmy Butler, but he's been traded (to Philadelphia) and now they too are playing better. They did lose 118-109 to Boston on Saturday, but before that they'd won and covered four straight. Defense was key to their turnaround as they held three of the four opponents under 100 points, something you don't see very often in today's NBA. The loss to Boston snapped a streak of nine consecutive games holding the opponent below 43% shooting. The Celtics shot (44) and made (17) a lot of three-pointers in that game. It also hurt the T'wolves that Boston was 21 of 21 from the free-throw line. James Harden & the Rockets are certainly capable of putting up similar numbers, but I don't think they'll be quite as prolific as the C's were Saturday night. 

This is a play on the total, so let's start looking at that. Houston has gone Over in eight straight games. They've topped 130 pts three times during that stretch, but they shouldn't approach that number given how Minnesota has been defensively of late. The T'wolves have gone Over in B2B games, but prior to that the Under had hit in seven straight games and 12 of the last 13. So something will have to give here. Minnesota also made a ton of FT's (26) in the last game and I don't see that getting repeated here. The Under is 12-4 for them when facing a team that gives up 106 or more PPG this season. It's also 11-5 when the O/U line is 220 points or higher. 10* Under Rockets/T'wolves

10* Over Rutgers/Wisconsin (8:00 ET): Conference play isn't even a week old and already I'm 2-0 in the Big 10. Not only did I have an easy one w/ Ohio State (over Minnesota) yday, but Wisconsin beat Iowa for me on Friday. The Badgers are back in action Monday and I'm now looking at the total. This will be a much easier matchup than the one Friday in Carver-Hawkeye where they ended Iowa's unbeaten run. After trailing in that one by as many as eight in the 2H, they fought back admirably to win 72-66 and are now poised to go on a favorable run here in December w/ a friendly stretch of games. They're already 7-1 SU and have scored at least 72 pts in all but two games, one of those coming against Virginia in Atlantis (only loss). 

If you recall, Rutgers was also kind to me in one of their non-conference games. Quite frankly, it was one of the easiest bets I've ever made in College Basketball, if not any sport. Back on November 19th, they blew out Eastern Michigan 63-36, a game in which they led 31-4 at halftime. That tied an all-time NCAA mark for fewest points ever allowed in a 1st half. Needless to say, the Scarlet Knights won't have a better defensive performance the rest of this season, if ever again! Now they did turn in two additional strong efforts in beating Boston U and Miami FL. But conference play opened w/ a loss to Michigan State where they surrendered 78 points. 

This is a low total. Looking at every game both teams have played this year, only one has had a lower O/U line and that was Wisconsin's game vs. Virginia. The Over is 3-0 so far when the Badgers play here in Madison w/ them averaging 86.7 PPG. As I alluded to in my analysis for the Iowa game, this is a much improved team from LY thanks to Ethan Trice (missed 23 games in 2017-18) back in the fold. He came into that Iowa game leading the country in 3-point shooting at 60%. Rutgers' defensive numbers are still skewed by that outlier performance against Eastern Michigan. I think what we saw vs. Michigan State is more in line from what we'll get from them in Big 10 play. Wisconsin is actually 17th nationally in offensive efficiency right now. This one finds a way to sneak Over. 10* Over Rutgers/Wisconsin

8* Pittsburgh (8:20 ET): Though slightly favored and at home, I get the sense that in the minds of the public, the Steelers are almost "underdogs" here. They lost last week, 24-17 at Denver. That loss came on the heels of what should be considered a very fortunate win at Jacksonville the week prior. However, investigating the box score from last week shows that the Steelers actually played well. They outgained the Broncos 527-308. The problem was they - specifically QB Ben Roethlisberger - could not protect the football and finished -4 in turnovers. It was a similar story w/ the escape in Jacksonville where they had a clear edge in total yds nearly undone by three TO's. Back at home Sunday night, I suspect the giveaways will cease. I'm going to lay the short number. 

Looking at the Chargers season, a pretty clear pattern emerges. They've beaten up on a lot of bad teams: Wins have come against the Cardinals, Raiders twice, Titans, Browns, 49ers and Bills. They did win at Seattle, but also lost at home to Denver. Their other two losses were to the Rams and Chiefs, two of the best teams in the league. The Steelers are stronger on paper than any team LA has beaten all year. Here, the Chargers will be going into a hostile environment w/o their top running back, Melvin Gordon. This is a big deal. The Steelers defense has been very good this year, the last six games in particular. The 24 pts allowed LW were the most since September. But they barely allowed over 300 total yds. They allowed fewer than 300 total yds each of the previous five games! 

For the year, the Steelers rank 6th in total defense. The Chargers are 9th, but have given up slightly less points (and done so against a far less challenging schedule). The Steelers give up slightly less yardage on a per play basis. The offenses are basically dead even in this matchup, but the Chargers take a major hit w/o RB Gordon. Remember that the last time the Steelers played at home, they absolutely destroyed Carolina, 52-21, and Big Ben had a near perfect passer rating. My call is that Roethlisberger cuts way down on the turnovers Sunday night and leads his team to a comfortable victory. Don't be surprised if he and fellow '04 Draft class alum Philip Rivers see each other again in the playoffs. 8* Pittsburgh

8* Calgary (7:05 ET): Hey - let's keep playing against Chicago! The oddsmakers still haven't fully caught up to just how bad this once mighty team is. As a result, there's value in going against them - almost on a nightly basis - until further notice. The last time I played against the Blackhawks was on 11.27, hosting Vegas. They lost that game 8-3 and have since dropped two more, 6-5 at Winnipeg and 5-2 at Nashville. Now those were both road losses, against arguably the two top teams in the Western Conference. It's been just a BRUTAL schedule overall for the 'Hawks, who have lost five of six overall while also having faced Tampa Bay, Washington and Vegas. (The one win was here at home against a last-place Florida club).

Tonight, Chicago hosts Calgary, a team I consider to be the best right now in a wide-open Pacific Division. The standings do too as the Flames lead the Pacific w/ 32 points and they have a +14 goal differential as well, easily tops in the division. They're off a 4-1 win over the last place Kings Friday night, a game which actually wasn't as easy as the final score indicates. Calgary scored three times in the third period w/ the go-ahead goal coming on the power play 7:44 into the third period. From there, they added two empty-net goals in the final minute. However, the Flames did enjoy a huge 37-14 edge in shots and really did dominate the game, particularly early and late. Though it was a product of two empty-net goals, the final score really was indicative of the Flames' level of dominance. 

Calgary has beaten Chicago four straight times, including a 5-3 win back on November 8th. That game saw the Flames enjoy an even more sizable edge in shots than they had over the Kings. They outshot the Blackhawks 41-15. I don't think they'll have much problem finding the back of the net in this rematch as Chicago has given up a frightening number of goals recently while the Flames are averaging 3.8 per game in their last five. As I've stated before, the Blackhawks rank near the bottom of the league in goals allowed (30th) and their special teams have been a disaster. They have the 31st ranked power play (that's last) at 11.8 percent and are 30th in penalty killing (74.0%). 8* Calgary

8* Ohio State (7:00 ET): The mood this morning in Columbus may be one of resignation as the fate of Ohio State's football program seems destined NOT for the College Football playoff. But the Buckeyes' basketball program, not bad in its own right, can certainly lift the campus' spirits w/ a big win tonight. Over the last week, you may have heard about the NCAA's much maligned new rating system, NET (replacing RPI), which had Ohio State as the #1 team in the land. That ranking was met w/ almost universal mockery and it certainly didn't help that the Buckeyes lost their first game after the rankings were released. Wednesday, here in Columbus, they went down to Syracuse 72-62 as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. But foolish rankings aside, OSU remains a strong team ready to do damage as Big 10 play gets underway Sunday. I'll lay the points here.

The Buckeyes started the season 6-0 w/ a couple of impressive road wins over Cincinnati and Creighton. Considering Creighton just took #1 Gonzaga to the limit yday (led by double digits) and Cincy's rep, there's no denying those are two quality wins. Against Syracuse, a good team, things kind of fell apart in the second half. The Orange finished the game at 46% from three-point range (11 of 24), a far cry from what previous Buckeyes' opponents had shot from behind the arc. Consider that - for the season - OSU is still allowing only 28.7% shooting from three-point range. So we'll just consider what the 'Cuse did to be an aberration. It was also the just the school's ninth loss in the L42 home games. 

Minnesota also comes in at 6-1 SU on the year. The Golden Gophers lost their Big 10-ACC Challenge game, 68-56 at Boston College, which was their first and only "true" road game thus far. They've also played a game since, vs. Oklahoma State, which they won 83-76. But might that extra game be a "detriment" when it comes to preparing for this Big 10 opener? I think it may. Ohio State has been off since Wednesday while its just a 48-hour turnaround for the Gophers. Minny played OK State at U.S. Bank Stadium (home of the NFL's Vikings) and caught a break w/ their opponent going just 12 of 24 from the FT line. They still allowed the Pokes to shoot 10 of 19 from three-point range, which could be a problem here. In that one "true" road game so far, the Gophers shot a horrific 29.2% from the field. They've played a challenging schedule, but figure to come up short again here. 8* Ohio State

8* Oakland (4:05 ET): This is obviously a real "hold your nose" and take the points kind of situation. Because of that, my analysis will be a little more brief than usual. That doesn't mean I like the play any less compared to any other normal selection, because I do like it quite a bit. It's just that there's little the Raiders or Chiefs have done this year that would convince rational minds that the former is the right side here. But this one is all about the number; testing the limits of how many points the public is willing to lay w/ a good team against a bad one, even if it is on the road. For me, this is an overlay. Take the points. 

Over the last 30 seasons, Kansas City has been a double-digit road favorite just twice. Once was back in 1992 against a historically bad Seahawks team. The other time was LY against the Giants (who finished 3-13). They did not cover either game. In fact, they lost outright to the Giants, 12-9 in overtime! The spread for this matchup against the Raiders is almost unprecedented in nature, at least for the Chiefs. They've never been favored by two touchdowns on the road as far back as I have data (1989). Oakland has been a double digit home dog six times in the last 10 seasons. The last time was just three weeks ago and they lost to the Chargers 20-6. They were only 10-pt dogs then and even got out to an early lead. Total yardage was basically even in that game, the difference was the Raiders turning it over twice in the red zone. 

The Raiders have never been a home dog of more than two touchdowns, so again, this line is somewhat unprecedented. Note ALL double digit home dogs have gone 82-65-5 ATS over the L30 seasons. There have only been 25 instances of a home team getting 14 or more points the L30 seasons and only one of those came since 2012. Kansas City is not w/o issue heading into this game. They will be w/o WR Sammy Watkins and RB Kareem Hunt finds himself embroiled in controversy after TMZ released video of him kicking and shoving a woman. Thus, his status for this game could be in doubt. Then you have a Chiefs defense that is surrendering 34.3 points and 457 yards per game on the road. They are allowing 6.7 yards per play. All those numbers rank near the bottom of the league. Oakland did win a game two weeks ago. So much for "brief analysis" ... I like this one! 8* Oakland

10* Detroit (1:00 ET): The Rams are one of the top teams in the league and coming off their bye. Those two factors alone guarantee a large spread. But remember that the last time we saw them, they were winning perhaps the greatest NFL regular season game ever played, 54-51 over the Chiefs. So it's really not a surprise to see them so heavily favored this week in Detroit. But, to me, the oddsmakers know what the public likes and this looks like a classic overlay. Just two weeks ago, Detroit was my *10* Game of the Week and upset a Carolina team that had won five of its previous seven games. The Lions are also off a bit of a "mini-bye" here having last played a game on Thanksgiving. They're too good to be getting double digits at home. Take the points.

Somewhat lost in the Rams' impressive 10-1 start to the season is that their heavily-hyped defense has been a clear disappointment. Twice in the last three weeks they've given up 45 or more points. Now those games were against the Saints & Chiefs, the two top offenses in the league. But they've also allowed 27 or more points in six of the last eight games. They allow a frightening 6.5 yards per play for the year and that number gets even higher when you factor out the first two teams they faced, Oakland and Arizona. So my point is that Detroit is going to be able to score plenty of points in this game. Add in what the oddsmakers are giving them & the Rams' offense will have to be at its best to cover this spread. 

The Lions had to withstand a failed two-point attempt to beat Carolina two weeks ago, 20-19. Well, they also could have easily upset Chicago Thanksgiving. But Matt Stafford threw a pick-six in the 4Q to lose the game, 23-16. Now that was against an offense led by backup QB Chase Daniel. I realize the Lions offense is no longer the same w/o WR Golden Tate (traded) and RB Kerryon Johnson (questionable to play here). But Matt Patricia's defense turned in multiple strong efforts in November and I think will be highly motivated here. The Rams have been favored by double digits only one other time this year - Week 2 at home vs. Arizona. The last time they closed as DD road favorites was the "Greatest Show on Turf" days. Detroit has not been a DD home dog since '09, Matt Stafford's rookie season (year after they went 0-16 SU). 10* Detroit

10* Under Broncos/Bengals (1:00 ET): Something is going to have to give here as Denver has gone Under in four straight games while Cincinnati has gone Over in its last four. While many are ready to "tout" the Broncos as a "sleeper" playoff team, I though last week's 24-17 upset of Pittsburgh (at home) was highly misleading when you consider they were +4 in turnover margin and also gave up 500+ yards. That latter number is concerning, but instead of facing a Ben Roethlisberger-led Steelers offense, this week it will be a Bengals offense quarterbacked by backup Jeff Driskell. That's a much better matchup for a defense that has allowed 22 pts or fewer four of the last five games to begin with ... and the only exception in that five-game stretch was Kansas City!

Cincinnati may have the worst defense in the entire league right now. They have given up the most yards and the most points, so the point seems rather inarguable. Last week, they made rookie QB Baker Mayfield look like a multi-time Pro Bowler in giving up 35 points to the Browns in less than 20 minutes. This Bengals defense has been absolutely shredded over the last month or so, but be aware they've had to face some of the league's top offenses: Kansas City, New Orleans and even Tampa Bay (who is #1 in yards per game). The performance last week was terrible, but note they shut the Browns out for almost the entire second half. Since a Week 1 victory over the Seahawks, the Denver offense has gone over 24 pts in only one game and that was against lowly Arizona.

The Bengals get WR A.J. Green back this week, but any positive that would normally bring is mitigated by the fact QB Andy Dalton is out. Like I said earlier, Denver's defense has allowed 22 pts or less in four of its last five games. The Broncos' offense, which as alluded to above isn't that great to begin with, has been held to 16 pts or less in two of its three early (1 PM ET) Sunday games this year. (The team is 0-3 SU in such games). I look for this to be a surprisingly low-scoring game as the Bengals have a backup QB and the Denver offense has failed to top 325 yards in B2B weeks. 10* Under Broncos/Bengals

10* Vegas (10:05 ET): I'm going to keep riding the red hot Golden Knights, who have won fibe in a row overall, including two straight on the road. I've had them in each of those two road games, which were wins at Chicago (8-3) and Vancouver (4-3). Granted, neither of those are strong opponents. But neither really is Edmonton, who remains wildly overrated in the Connor McDavid era. The Oilers have won B2B games at home, but they lost here to Vegas a couple weeks ago while giving up six goals. The Golden Knights have been surging offensively ever since and goalie Marc-Andre Fleury is also currently in fine form. 

During the five-game win streak, Vegas has outscored its opponents 23-8. That doesn't even include the 6-3 win here in Edmonton back on November 18th. Fleury has allowed only 11 total goals in his L6 starts (posted B2B shutouts last week) and the Oilers have been a favorite opponent of his through the years. He's 5-0 w/ a 1.77 GAA and .940 save percentage his L5 starts against them. Vegas is a team we all thought would regress this season. They very well still may and did get off to a slow start to the season. But there's no doubt that they're playing as well as any team in the league right now. That doesn't mean they'll win the Western Conference again like they did in their expansion year. But they are more than capable of beating a team like the Oilers. 

Edmonton has been better since a coaching change. They're 3-1-1 w/ Ken Hitchcock behind the bench, four of those five games decided by one goal. But a few one-goal victories aren't enough to alter my overall view of this team. They're only 26th in goals per game despite having McDavid. Ironically, they did take three of four games last year from the Golden Knights. But those results were not indicative of the respective seasons. I don't think the Oilers are any kind of "bad matchup" for the Knights. We saw that in the last meeting. Mikko Koskinen has definitely been a better option in goal than Cam Talbot (who Vegas scored on six times), but he alone can't turn the tide here. 10* Vegas

10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Teams at opposite ends of the Eastern Conference spectrum meet tonight in Cleveland. The Raptors lead the East w/ a 19-4 SU record (best in the league) after beating Golden State Thursday night. The Cavs are now 4-17 SU after losing big (128-95) in Boston last night. Things have come full circle here as these teams opened the season against one another w/ Toronto winning 116-104. They just missed out on the cover as 12.5-pt chalk. While things went south in Cleveland in hurry, post-LeBron, I don't think the Cavs deserve to be this large an underdog tonight. Take the points. 

Last week, the Cavs were kind to me, cashing two different times as a premium release. Most impressive of all is that they covered both games wire to wire for the full 96 minutes. One was the heavily-hyped game vs. LeBron and the Lakers. The other was vs. Houston, which was an outright upset as a 10-point dog. Both games were at home. This number is even larger. Granted, that's because the Raptors are a stronger foe, but it's still an overlay. Cleveland has been far more competitive at home this year as opposed to the road where they're just 1-10 SU. The last time they dropped a game by double digits here at the Quicken Loans Arena was November 1st. 

With LeBron on its roster, Cleveland was a long-time nemesis for Toronto, so expect no sympathy from the favorite tonight. Still, the number is just too large. The Raptors have won seven in a row, the win over Golden State arguably being the high point of the season so far. So don't be surprised if the Raptors take the Cavs a little lightly here. After all, they've already beaten them once. That was that game where they were going to take out any remaining angst against the post-LeBron Cavaliers. Being a road favorite of more than 12.5 points is almost unprecedented for Toronto. They're 0-2 ATS in the role all-time. On the flip side, the Cavs are 2-0 ATS as home dogs of 12.5 or more. 10* Cleveland

10* Butler (5:00 ET): We'll probably always associate Butler w/ the back to back runs to the National Title Game under former HC Brad Stevens in 2010-11. But, seven years later, the program remains quite strong. I believe the Bulldogs are worthy of Top 25 consideration right now as they've started 5-1 SU w/ a win over Florida last week. Remember that this is a team that made it to the Round of 32 in LY's NCAA Tournament where it bowed out to second-seeded Purdue by just two points. Today is their first "true" road game of the season and we find them only laying a small number to a St. Louis squad it defeated by 30 points last year. I realize it's now a road game, but Butler should handle its business w/ relative ease Saturday. Lay the points.

Butler had been favored in all of its games before facing Florida (pick 'em). They did drop a disappointing decision to Dayton, 69-64 as seven-point chalk, back on November 21st. But they quickly responded w/ a 31-point win over Middle Tennessee, then came the big win over Florida. All those games took place down in Atlantis. It was an off-shooting night in the loss to Dayton, but a much different story vs. MTSU. Against Florida, it was a dominant 2nd half w/ the Bulldogs shooting 50% from the floor while "tightening the screws" on the Gators, holding them to just 29% overall, including 1 of 12 on three-point attempts. Butler is top 20 in the country in offensive efficiency right now and a solid 41st defensively, per KenPom. 

St. Louis has the same 5-1 SU record as Butler, so it's a little surprising that they're only 1-5 ATS. Then again, they've been double digit favorites in four of the ATS losses and gone 0-4 vs. the number. That tells me that this is not a dominant team, even against lesser competition. The Billikens do hold an upset over Seton Hall, on the road, a rare instance of the visitor drastically outshooting its host from behind the arc. But they followed that up w/ an outright loss to Pitt (as a 4-pt favorite) in yet another hard-fought game that was decided by just two points. Last weekend, they beat Central Arkansas by only 12 points. A St. Louis team that ranks 137th in offensive efficiency is going to have issues scoring today and I just don't see them keeping up w/ their sharpshooting opponent. 10* Butler

10* Georgia (4:00 ET): Alabama is in a bit of a unique position as they go for a 4th SEC Championship Game victory in the last five seasons (remember, they didn't play in LY's game despite going onto win the CFP). They really don't need to win this game to ensure a spot in the top four of the CFP rankings. Now, obviously they'll WANT to win the game (especially after not being involved last year) and Nick Saban doesn't allow for lookaheads, letdowns or anything else of that nature. But Georgia, easily the best team Bama has faced this year, does have to win Saturday to make the CFP. This is obviously a rematch of last year's National Title Game, which was won by Bama 26-23 in overtime. Now UGA will have to face QB Tua Tagovailoa for a full game and not just a half. The Tide are better this year, but I'm not sure they're 13 pts better than Georgia in what should be a very hostile environment (game played in Atlanta). I'll take the points!

Alabama is a perfect 4-0 SU vs. Georgia over the last decade, despite none of those games taking place in Tuscaloosa. Last year's win was obviously the most memorable of the quartet, given what was at stake. The game saw Bama spot UGA a 13-0 halftime led, but then came Tua and the rest is history. This Alabama team is probably Saban's best (which is saying something), but Georgia will also be its toughest opponent. I'm a contrarian by nature, but have stepped in front of this Bama train only once this season. It was w/ Mississippi State, who covered despite not scoring a single point. 

Since suffering its only loss of the season (36-16 at LSU), Georgia has won all of its games by at least 17 points. The big story in that LSU loss was them being -4 in turnovers. This Georgia team isn't quite as strong as last year, but that's been accounted for by the oddsmakers. Last year's National Title Game had a 3.5-point spread. A 10-pt adjustment just seems like too much even after factoring in Bama being better and UGA being slightly worse. The key here is - unlike most of Bama's opponents this year - Georgia actually has an offense. The Dawgs average more than 40 PPG and while it's highly unlikely they'll get to that number Saturday afternoon, I believe they are certainly capable of scoring enough to cover this generous spread, which I did NOT expect to be in the double digits. If Bama was able to get up by more than the spread, I could certainly envision a "backdoor" scenario for the underdog. Either way, Georgia covers. 10* Georgia

8* Marquette (2:30 ET): As we continue to look to "pick off" teams from the dwindling list of remaining unbeatens, Kansas State will be our next target. The 6-0 Wildcats certainly aren't a fraudulent team by any means, but they're certainly overrated at #12 in the polls. Despite that ranking, they check in as slight underdogs on Saturday to an unranked Marquette team. This is the oddsmakers essentially "tipping their hand" and I'll call for the Wildcats to fall for the 1st time this season. This will be their first "true" road game and despite winning the Paradise Jam, it's hardly been a daunting schedule thus far for Bruce Weber's team. Meanwhile, Marquette won't be intimidated here having already faced the likes of Indiana, Kansas & Louisville. Lay the short number here. 

Marquette played two of those three teams tough, even beating Louisville (who just upset Michigan State) in overtime. That came two days after losing to Kansas 77-68 as 8.5-pt dogs. Both those games came at a neutral setting (New York City) as part of the NIT Tipoff. The only game the Golden Eagles played poorly this year was when they traveled to Indiana for their lone "true" road game to date. After "upsetting" L'ville (actually favored), Marquette returned home to play Charleston Southern on Tuesday. They won that game easily, 76-55 as 18.5-pt chalk. It was the fourth time this season the Golden Eagles held an opponent below 60 points. The fact that this team was favored over Louisville I think is pretty instructive as to the caliber of team we're getting here. 

If Marquette does struggle in one area, it's taking care of the basketball. They've turned it over on 20% of their possessions this year and I can see where that would be a problem vs. a team like Kansas State. But, at home, I suspect protecting the basketball will be priority #1. Remember that KSU has not had to play in a hostile environment all year. Marquette is 31-10 SU its last 41 home games and is #26 nationally in offensive efficiency. Aside from the Indiana game, they've played good defense as well. In four home games, they've allowed just 52.5 PPG. No one is going undefeated this season and for Kansas State, they'll taste defeat for the first time Saturday afternoon. 8* Marquette

10* Oklahoma (12:00 ET): In the build for this game, you're likely to hear two trends spouted quite a bit. One, Texas has covered six straight times against Oklahoma, including a 48-45 upset as 7-pt underdogs earlier this year. Two, Longhorns HC Tom Herman is 12-1 ATS as a dog in his coaching career (including at Houston) w/ NINE outright upsets. So I expect UT to be quite the popular underdog this week. But it is Oklahoma w/ more to play for here as a win could (and should!) send the Sooners to the College Football Playoff. Then there is the revenge angle as they have a shot at avenging their lone regular season defeat. If they do so, that should impress the committee enough to ensure their place in the top four. I'll take it a step further and say that if OU wins big here (and I obviously think they can), then they deserve to jump Notre Dame for the #3 spot (won't happen though). 

There is no doubt that Texas will enter this game w/ plenty of confidence. It is again at a neutral field and the L5 RRR's have all been decided by seven points or less. Instead of the traditional meeting place of the Cotton Bowl in Dallas (1st Saturday of every October), this time the rivals will play in nearby Arlington, in Cowboys Stadium. Given the stakes, a case can be made for this being one of the most important OU-Texas games EVER. It's a spot I'm not sure the Longhorns are ready for. Sure, they almost always play close games (9 of their 12 reg season games decided by less than 7 pts, went 6-3 SU). But this is a team that lost to both Oklahoma State and Maryland. Though they did score a season-high 48 pts in the upset of OU back in October, I'm just not convinced that the Longhorns can must up the type of offensive performance necessary to keep pace here. The fast track of "Jerry World" will definitely favor Oklahoma.

Oklahoma leads the country w/ 50.3 points and 584 yards per game. They've scored at least 45 pts in every game but two, one of which was Army basically playing "keep away." They've scored more than 50 five of the last six weeks. Both teams had close calls last week w/ OU outlasting WVU 59-56 and Texas only beating Kansas 24-17. In the regular season meeting, note that while the Sooners did fall behind by as many as 21 points, they were -3 in turnovers and still rallied to tie the game late in the fourth quarter. Led by sensational QB Kyler Murray, they are definitely the better team here and actually undervalued. "Boomer Sooner" should pull off a "statement win" for the committee. Lay the points. 10* Oklahoma

8* Appalachian State (12:00 ET): App State is one of the larger favorites on Conference Championship Saturday, but the spread was actually higher when they face Louisiana in the regular season. A lot higher. In fact, the Mountaineers were bet all the way up to -26 against the Ragin Cajuns, a game they only won by 10 points (27-17). This rematch also takes place in Boone w/ the Sun Belt title now on the line. To me, App State has clearly been the class of the SBC all season long, losing only one conference game and it was Thursday night, on the road. I can't help but think that the oddsmakers have overadjusted their line for this Title Game as I don't think Louisiana is eight points better now than they were a month ago nor is App State eight points worse. The spread shouldn't have been near four touchdowns again, but three (meaning a 21-pt spread) certainly would have been appropriate. The value is on the favorite here. 

This is the first ever Sun Belt Conference Championship Game as the league split into two divisions for the 1st time this year. Appalachian State was expected to be here and largely handled its business during the regular season. They went 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS. Besides the Thursday night loss at Georgia Southern, the only other SU loss was an overtime game against Penn State all the way back in the season opener. Louisiana is a bit of a surprise entrant, having won the more wide open West Division w/ a 5-3 SU conference record (went 7-5 SU overall). They clinched their spot here w/ a 31-28 upset of LA Monroe last Saturday. While App State outscored Sun Belt teams by 147 points this year, Louisiana was only +24. In fact, the Ragin Cajuns were actually outscored over the course of their entire 2018 season. They are - pretty easily - the worst team playing in a Conference Title Game this weekend. 

Both of these offenses can score and certainly run the ball effectively. App State paces only slightly ahead of Louisiana in both metrics, averaging 37.3 points and 242 rush yds per contest (compared to Louisana's 33.7 and 230). But the key to this game lies on the defensive side of the ball. In eight conference games, ASU surrendered only 108 total points. They've allowed an average of just 15.4 PPG this year and didn't allow more than 17 in any of their nine wins. Louisiana allows 34.0 PPG for the season. When it comes to stopping the run (will be very important in this game!), ASU has allowed only 11 rushing TD's this year compared to 30 for Louisiana. Then there is the homefield advantage. ASU is 5-0 SU in Boone, winning by an average of 31.8 PPG! It should be noted that they led the Ragin Cajuns 27-10 in the regular season meeting before giving up a TD w/ just over a minute to go. This one won't be nearly as close. 8* Appalachian State

10* Northern Illinois (7:00 ET): Northern Illinois is no stranger to the MAC Title Game. This will be their seventh appearance in the last nine years and they've won three of the previous six times here. It didn't always look like a clear path for the Huskies to arrive again in 2018 and a poor finish to the regular season (upset in each of last two games) undeniably affected their stock heading into this game. But this is a team that took on a challenging non-conference sked w/ games against Utah, Florida State, Iowa and BYU. So that helps explain the difference in overall records with them and MAC East Champ Buffalo. The NIU offense is by no means pretty, but the defense is the MAC's best and allows only 2.6 yards per carry. In what shapes up as a low-scoring Championship Game, taking the points only seems logical.

While Northern Illinois went 7-5 SU and 6-6 ATS in the regular season, Buffalo was 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS. HC Lance Leipold has engineered a tremendous turnaround here with a team that won only two games two years ago. While improvement was expected here '18, few expected the Bulls to get this far. Most of their games this season were not close affairs w/ only two (both wins) decided by 7 pts or fewer. Both times Buffalo lost this year, they were beaten badly. Once was to Army, 42-13 as a seven-point home favorite. The other was one of my favorite plays of the season - when I took Ohio as a 2-pt dog to beat them and beat them the Bobcats did, 52-17. Buffalo is making just its second MAC Title Game appearance ever, the last one coming in 2008. 

Both teams sport outstanding defenses and while UB looks to have a decided edge on offense, I still give the dog an excellent job at pulling off the outright upset. Northern Illinois played - by far - the tougher schedule. Other than Toledo, Buffalo's resume contains little to no "quality" wins. While these teams didn't meet in the regular season, NIU did win at Buffalo last year. When looking at NIU's two game losing streak, be aware that they had nothing to play for in either game, having already sewn up the MAC West. I think Buffalo's two losses were more telling as the offense was contained both games, something I believe NIU can do here. The Huskies allowed 17 pts or fewer in half their games. One final thing to watch out for: no team has had more field goals (7) or punts (3) blocked than Buffalo. Northern Illinois is one of the top teams in the country at blocking kicks. 8* Northern Illinois

10* Wisconsin (8:00 ET): There were still 18 teams without a loss in College Basketball entering yday. We targeted one of them, Sacramento State, who happened to be the weakest of the lot. They went down pretty easily (75-58), leaving us w/ 17 teams still w/ a "0" in the loss column. It's very likely that most of these teams are going to suffer that first loss soon, so I'd make a note of who's on "the list." Now the "elite" teams are less likely to lose, but those not defined by that label are easy targets. Such as this Iowa team I'll be playing against tonight. The Hawkeyes were lucky to escape at home vs. Pitt Tuesday, winning by just a single point as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge (which ended in a 7-7 tie). Wisconsin was similarly fortunate to win its game, but as the oddsmakers are clearly letting you know here, they're the better team. 

Not all unbeaten records are created equal and in this case of Iowa, it's been a pretty weak slate of opponents thus far. They did beat Oregon (ranked #13 at the time) in the semis of the 2K Classic on what was a cold-shooting night for the Ducks. The Hawkeyes have yet to play a "true" road game, something that will change next week when they visit East Lansing to play Michigan State. So we're probably going to learn a lot about this Hawkeyes team in the next two games. What we do know is they allowed Pitt to shoot a stunning 61.3% from the floor in the 1H Tuesday. They put the clamps down in the 2H, allowing just 22 pts and rallying back from a seven-point deficit at the break. Tonight will be Iowa's toughest test to date. 

Wisconsin has played three straight top 40 teams, all of whom I'd say are at least at the level - if not better - than the Oregon team that constitutes Iowa's best win. The Badgers have had to face Oklahoma, Virginia and NC State in the last week, losing only to Virginia, who is a top five team. They lost 53-46 to the Hoos and seemed poised to be headed for a second straight defeat on Tuesday, before rallying late to get by previously unbeaten NC State. Like Iowa, the Badgers trailed by seven at the half - at home. But a 50-pt 2H saved them and now they can knock off a second straight unbeaten opponent. This is a double revenge spot for Wisconsin too as they're 0-2 SU/ATS vs. the Hawkeyes the L2 seasons, including an 18-pt loss here in Iowa City LY. But remember that was one of the weakest Badgers' teams in recent memory (missed NCAA Tournament for first time in 19 years) and they're much improved for 2018-19, led by one of the top players in the country, Ethan Happ. I haven't even mentioned yet that due to injuries, Iowa is down to just nine scholarship players! Their unbeaten run ends tonight. 10* Wisconsin

8* Vegas (10:05 ET): The Golden Knights have really started to turn things around with a four-game win streak that has seen dominant play at both ends of the ice. I was on them their last time out when they scored eight goals in a blowout of the lowly Blackhawks. That win followed B2B shutouts by goalie Marc-Andre Fleury. Of course, when you score 14 goals over a two-game stretch like Vegas has, then strong play between the pipes is just a luxury. But it's a nice luxury to have as you have to figure the Knights won't be able to score so many goals every game. A trip that started w/ a visit to Chicago should get even easier tonight as they're in Vancouver to face a Canucks team that's lost 9 of its last 10 games. I'll take Vegas again.

Vancouver, like Vegas' previous opponent (Chicago) isn't a last place team. But both the Blackhawks and Canucks generally play like they belong in the basement of their respective divisions. The Canucks are coming off a home and home split w/ the Kings (who are in last place in the Pacific) as each team won at the other's rink. It was a 2-1 loss in overtime here in British Columbia for the Canucks on Tuesday. That game marked the return of Brock Boeser to the lineup (missed 11 games due to a groin injury), so it's disappointing that the Canucks were only able to pick up the loser's point. One area where this club continues to struggle is shot generation. They are 28th in the league, averaging only 28.4 shots per game. 

If Vancouver isn't getting many shots on goal, then obviously the game will be a lot simpler for the red-hot opposing goaltender they're facing tonight. Fluery went 150 minutes of ice time w/o allowing a goal before Chicago finally broke through on Tuesday. After being pretty dreadful on the road to start the season, Vegas has turned it around by winning three of their last four away from Sin City, twice scoring six or more goals. This is a revenge game for them as they lost as huge ML favorites (-300!) to the Canucks back in October, 3-2. The Knights have no problem getting the puck on net (4th in shots per game) and should win easily tonight. 8* Vegas

10* Cal Santa Barbara (10:00 ET): Entering play on Thursday, there are still 18 unbeaten teams in College Hoops. Of those 18, Sacramento State is definitely the weakest and also happens to have the fewest number of wins (3). It's only inevitable that the Hornets drop a game and tonight appears to be the night as they visit an old "friend" of mine in UCSB. The Gauchos came through for me, big-time, in their season opener. They walloped a bad Wyoming team 76-66 in Laramie and are now 5-1 SU, 4-1 ATS on the year and enter tonight on a three-game win streak. There is some question over whether or not G Max Heidegger plays here (concussion), but his status has been upgraded and I actually don't think the Gauchos even need him to cover this spread. Lay the points. 

I mentioned earlier that Sacramento State has played only three games. Two of the wins have been by five points or less, one of them coming in OT, and the other was over a NAIA school. So, yes, it's not a stretch to call this the weakest of the remaining unbeaten teams in the country - by a pretty substantial margin. One player (Marcus Graves) is carrying the Hornets right now. He's posted a triple-double (season opener) and made the game-winner in a 58-55 win over UC Davis on November 20th. Saturday vs. Cal State Fullerton, the Hornets did lead by as many as 18 pts in the 2H, but needed OT - plus 22-12-8 from Graves - to get the win. The Hornets were slight underdogs in the last two games and tonight is their 1st "true" roadie of 2018-19.

UCSB beat Sacramento State last year, on the road, 82-72 as an 8.5-pt favorite. A year later, the spread is roughly the same, even a little lower, at home. So I see value on a side that has won four straight while covering the three lined contests. Saturday against Idaho, UCSB didn't even shoot that well (36.7%), yet still won comfortably due to another outstanding effort on the defensive end. Thus far, the Gauchos have held their opponents to a ridiculous 35.6% from the floor, including just 22% from three-point range. They've played only two home games and won them by a combined 75 points. In addition to playing on this team at Wyoming, I also won w/ them in the last home game (vs. Montana State). They've been able to win w/o Heidegger before and would be able to do so again tonight. Sacramento State is way overvalued due to the "0" in the loss column. 10* Cal Santa Barbara

10* Dallas (8:20 ET): Anyone who has chosen to step in front of this Saints' train has been unsuccessful at the end of the day. Well, that's technically not true. I successfully played against them back in Week 1 when they lost outright, as 10-pt home favorites, 48-40 to Tampa Bay. But since then, they're a perfect 10-0 SU and ATS, ascending to the top of everyone's power rankings. If we're being honest, I've played against them the L2 wks, thinking they were laying too many points. Last week against Atlanta, they covered by a single point in a 31-17 victory. It should be pointed out that the Falcons lost THREE fumbles inside the red zone, which was basically the difference in the game. A game where they actually outgained the Saints, 366-312. At the very least, the -3 turnover margin cost Atlanta the cover. 

All of a sudden, Dallas appears to be in the drivers seat in the NFC East. They are 6-5 SU, tied w/ Washington (who they just beat) and one game up on Philadelphia (who they beat three weeks ago). They are my favorite to win the division as of now. Three straight wins have totally turned this team's season around. You have to be careful about too much stock into a relatively small sample size, but there is no denying that the Cowboys are peaking at the right time. Two of the team's three best offensive performances (in terms of points scored) have come in the last three games. Key has been the addition of WR Amari Cooper, who had 180 yds receiving last week. QB Dak Prescott has completed 70% of his passes during the win streak w/ no interceptions. 

It's a big break for Dallas getting the Saints outside of New Orleans. Yes, the Saints are unbeaten on the road, but the Cowboys are 4-1 SU at home, outscoring opponents by more than a TD per game. The Dallas defense has actually played well all season, giving up just 19.4 PPG. They'll obviously be tested severely by the Saints' offense here, but I think the 'Boys can limit them as the most pts they've allowed all season is 28. Just like the last couple weeks, I believe this is an overlay w/ New Orleans, who is due to play a close game. Expect a steady dose of Ezekiel Elliott from Dallas to control the clock. The Cowboys have not been a home dog of more than seven points since facing the Patriots in 2015. Meanwhile, New Orleans has actually not been favored on the road by more than a TD since 2013 (did not cover).  10* Dallas

8* North Carolina (9:30 ET): Whenever I see these two teams matched up, I automatically think of the famous 1993 Title Game where Chris Webber called that infamous timeout he didn't have, costing Michigan a National Championship. That loss is one of four Title Game losses for the Wolverines in the last 26 years, the most recent coming last March to Villanova. But the Maize and Blue seem pretty determined to finally cut down the nets this year, starting 6-0 SU and they've already exacted revenge over 'Nova in a stunning 73-46 beatdown that took place IN PHILLY. But this game vs. North Carolina, part of the Big 10-ACC Challenge, is Michigan's toughest to date. At the start of the season, I don't think many would have expected the Wolverines to be favored in this spot, even in Ann Arbor. UNC is still the better team IMO and I'll gladly take the points. 

The ACC has typically owned this annual event with their Big 10 counterparts. Last year, they won 11 of the 14 games. So far this year, things have been a lot more even at four wins apiece. But all four wins by the Big 10 have been by four points or less, three of them by two pts or less, which is really incredible when you think about it. Overall, this has been a very tightly contested event as the ACC pulled out a couple close ones itself last night w/ Notre Dame beating Illinois 76-74 and Louisville upsetting #9 Michigan State in overtime. Of course, the majority of these results don't have a huge bearing on our play tonight, but I do think they're instructive as to how valuable taking points w/ the ACC side is. Especially when it's North Carolina, who is rarely an underdog and still #2 overall in my own personal power ratings (behind only Duke). 

The Tar Heels did drop a game last week, losing to Texas 92-89 as nine-point chalk. Sadly, I had the Heels in that one as the allowed the Longhorns to shoot the lights out in Vegas. Coby White did have 33 points for UNC, the most by any freshman since Harrison Barnes went for 40 back in 2011. The team did bounce back in the consolation game vs. UCLA, winning 94-78. The Heels have now scored at least 89 points in six straight games. This should be a fascinating battle between the #4 offensive team in the country (UNC) against the top defensive team (Michigan). But at the end of the day, North Carolina is way underrated at #11 in the Top 25. They are the better team here. 8* North Carolina

10* New York (7:05 ET): The Knicks played last night and lost 115-108 to the Pistons. But they did cover (were +7.5), which makes it 5 straight ATS wins for this moribund franchise. They'd actually pulled three consecutive upsets prior to last night, beating Boston, New Orleans and Memphis. So even though this is the second night of a back to back (and third road game in four nights), there's no reason NY can't compete here against a Philly side that has consistently been overvalued in the early going this season. The Sixers have failed to cover each of their last four games, including an outright loss here at home to Cleveland last week as 13-pt favorites. I'm taking the points. 

After suffering that embarrassing loss to Cleveland last week, the Sixers were able to bounce back w/ a win in Brooklyn on Sunday. But the win came by only two points as they trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter. In fact, they needed 38 4Q points to overcome the deficit they were facing (trailed by as many as 20 pts) as the Nets shot an incredible 57 percent from the floor in that game, including 46% from three-point range. I don't expect the Knicks to shoot that well tonight, but they shouldn't have to in order to gain the cover. The Sixers have failed to cover three of the last four times they've been a DD favorite. They're also 1-8 ATS this season after scoring 115+ points in the previous game.

I know that the Sixers are 10-1 SU at home (just 4-7 SU on the road) and itching to play after losing their last time here to Cleveland. But falling into that 20-pt hole against Brooklyn shows me this team still has much to work on. Defensively, they've really begun to slip, giving up an average of 119.8 points the L5 games. They're actually averaging the same number of PPG that they allow for the season. So, because they're at home and the Knicks played last night, the Sixers look to be really overvalued in this spot. I know NY fell behind pretty big itself last night. But a variety of players are actually contributing now and that helps alleviate playing w/o rest. The Knicks are 9-6 ATS when taking points this year. 10* New York

10* Richmond (7:00 ET): Georgetown looks to be way overvalued in this spot, which seems odd given that they've failed to cover the number in five of their first six games. Now they've won five of the six games straight up, but only one by double digits and that was the first game vs. MD-Eastern Shore (68-53) where they were 30.5-pt favorites. After a Jamaican trip that saw them lose to Loyola Marymount and then barely squeak by USF (needed OT), the Hoyas returned home over the weekend and again played a close game, this time beating Campbell by only eight points. They did lead by as many as 22, but that advantage had shrunk to as few as 4 pts in the final minute. 

Richmond is having a bit of a disappointing start to the season. The Spiders are 2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS and enter Wednesday on a three-game losing streak. Two of the losses were blowouts. Down in Ft. Myers, they lost by 16 to Loyola Chicago, then followed that up by blowing a late lead against Wyoming. A return home over the weekend seemed like it would get this team back on track, but instead they lost outright to Hampton, 86-66, as 11-point favorites. That huge misfire has obviously influenced tonight's spread pretty severely and I think we're getting a ton of value (at least several points) w/ the dog here. 

Richmond led Wyoming by as many as 11 in the second half before blowing the game and losing by two. I suspect the disappointment of that result contributed to what we saw Sunday against Hampton as the Spiders fell behind 18-4 and never led. Richmond has been favored in five of their six games, so the fact that they're 2-4 SU has to be viewed as a massive disappointment. But here's where they can at least gain some confidence by standing toe to toe w/ a "better-known" school. Richmond has revenge for a 6-pt home loss to G'town last year where the Hoyas shot the lights out (53.2% for the game). Even though the rematch is in D.C., I don't envision the Hoyas shooting that well again. The Spiders did lose third leading scorer Nick Sherod in the last game, but the team is almost guaranteed to improve its three-point shooting (went 3 of 21 vs. Hampton) even w/o him. Take the points. 10* Richmond

8* Over Lakers/Nuggets (9:05 ET): It didn't take long for this O/U line to start moving. For good reason too; I expect this to be a high-scoring game. Now both teams have gone Under in each of their last four games respectively. For the Lakers, the Under is 10-2 the last 12 games. But when you look at the O/U line from the last time these teams played, you can gain a real "appreciation" for how much the oddsmakers have overadjusted here. That previous O/U line either closed at 234.5/235 depending on your book. If you bet the total, the closing number definitely mattered as the final score was 121-114, in favor of the the Lakers. But for the purposes of tonight's total, all you need to know is that final score would make for an easy winner on the Over. That's the way I go here. 

The Lakers have won 9 of 12 games since Halloween, but lost their last time out, 108-104 to Orlando. That was a Sunday afternoon home game and LA's second loss to the Magic in just over a week's time. The Lakers did not shoot poorly per se against the Magic on Sunday, but did finish well below their season average of 114.2 PPG. Defensively, they'd held their previous three opponents all to 40% or worse from the field, before allowing Orlando to shoot 45%. They re allowing 112.7 PPG on the year. Without PG Rajon Rondo (out indefinitely), the Lakers have turned the ball over a total of 41 times in the L2 games. They had no problems shooting against Denver the last time they met, sinking exactly 50% of their shots in the 7-point win.

Denver also shot exactly 50% from the floor in that last meeting. In fact, they took (92) and made (46) the exact same numbers as the Lakers! The difference was that the Nuggets only made 6 of 23 three-point attempts (26.1%) while LA was a more respectable 10 of 29. Denver averages 10 makes per game from behind the arc and you can also expect them to shoot better overall at home where they average 113.8 PPG on 48.1% shooting. What I'm not sold on here is them repeating the kind of defensive efforts we've seen in the last two games where they allowed 87 and 98 pts in wins over the Magic and Thunder. Denver is 50-28 Over the L78 times it has faced a team averaging at least 106 PPG (Lakers average 114.2). The Lakers are 3-1 Over as underdogs this season. 8* Over Lakers/Nuggets

10* Nevada (9:00 ET): This is a colossal revenge game for the 5th ranked team in the country. As soon I saw this matchup for Tuesday, I instantly went back to last March when these teams met in the Sweet 16. Nevada, the 7-seed, led by as many as 12 early, but could not hold the lead and eventually found itself down double digits in the 2H. The final score was 69-68 as Loyola-Chicago would go on to make an improbable Final Four run. It's been awhile, so I can only assume my analysis of that game is long since forgotten. I'll briefly rehash here by reminding you I was on Loyola (+1.5) as Nevada's poor defensive efficiency stuck out like a "sore thumb" last year. But the Wolf Pack are much improved in that area this year, not to mention #1 in the country in offensive efficiency (per KenPom). Playing for major revenge, I'll lay the points w/ Nevada in this rematch. 

For some, it will probably take some getting used to seeing Nevada so high in the national rankings. I'm here to say "get used to it." As it stands now, I have the Wolf Pack set to win more games this year than any other team in the country besides Gonzaga. (BTW, shame on the Pac 12 for not even having a team in the discussion for superiority out West). As I said earlier, this is the top offensive team in the country right now as they average 92.0 PPG and have won all six games by double digits. They just dropped 110 pts on UMass in the Final of the Las Vegas Holiday Invitational on Friday, shooting an incredible 67.4% from two-point range while also making 11 of 22 three-pointers. This team is as deep as any in the country right now. 

But the big difference between this Nevada team and last year is the defensive end of the floor. This year, they are allowing just under 70 PPG and rank a respectable 48th in defensive efficiency and are holding opponents to just 22.8% shooting from three-point range, which is key. Back in March, they allowed Loyola to shoot 55% for the game. That won't be happening again. The Ramblers aren't as strong a team this year as they lost three starters from the Final Four squad and have not played the most challenging of schedules either. Not only did they just lose to Boston College in Fort Myers, earlier in the year they dropped a home game to Furman. Nevada will - easily - be their toughest opponent to date. While the Wolf Pack don't force a lot of turnovers defensively, that issue is mitigated by them not turning it over much themselves and defending the 3-pt line well. 10* Nevada

8* Vegas (8:05 ET): The Golden Knights captured the hearts & minds of hockey fans everywhere last season by making it all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals in their very 1st year of existence. Regression was all but inevitable for 2018-19, though the club has started to turn things around by winning three straight games coming into Tuesday. The last two wins, both at home, were shutouts. In their admittedly brief existence, the Knights have always been a much better team when playing in Sin City ("Vegas flu" for opponents!). But I'll still back them on the road tonight as they're playing well and facing one of the league's worst teams. 

Calling Chicago "one of the league's worst teams" still doesn't feel right, but it's true. The Blackhawks just aren't very good right now as they rank 26th in the league in scoring and 27th in goals allowed. They have the league's worst power play percentage (12.7%). We're actually getting them off a win here, 5-4 over Florida, but that result actually works to our benefit considering it's been a month since the 'Hawks last won B2B games. They've gone just 3-8-3 since that time and having already fired their coach, one has to wonder what - if any - "tricks" are left up the sleeve. While Vegas has posted B2B shutouts, Chicago has allowed exactly 4 goals in three straight games. 

Even though they won on Saturday, the Blackhawks needed OT to do so after falling behind in an early 0-2 hole. They still gave up 38 shots on goal. After allowing 4+ goals the previous game, Chicago is just 4-9 SU this year. After scoring 4+ goals the previous game, they are 1-5 SU. Major edge in goal here for Vegas w/ Marc-Andre Fleury, who authored both shutouts and did so on consecutive nights (62 saves total). The Golden Knights also do a good job of not allowing many shots per game (just 27.2 for the year). They swept Chicago last season, winning three times and scoring 14 goals. Their record vs. losing teams this year is also 7-2 SU. I've been fading the Blackhawks regularly this year and have no hesitation to do so again Tuesday. 8* Vegas

8* Virginia Tech (7:00 ET): Last night, I won w/ a road team (Nebraska) that I thought should be favored in this Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. Tonight, the road team I like is favored, only it's not by nearly enough. I'm also pivoting to the ACC school here as Va Tech comes in unbeaten and ranked #13 in the country. I suspect that many are suspicious of the Hokies, given we're not used to seeing them among the "blue bloods" of the sport. But Buzz Williams' team is most definitely "for real" as they've covered all five games so far and rank 7th nationally in offensive efficiency. I'll gladly lay the short number on the road here. 

Penn State has already dropped a couple of games, admittedly both of them very close decisions. They lost by two @ DePaul and by three to Bradley on a neutral court. Still, those results don't exactly bode well when getting set to face the #13 team in the country. Against Bradley, junior Lamar Stevens led the way w/ 27 points, his 5th consecutive 20+ pt effort. However, he got little help from his teammates, who combined to score just 29 points on 10 of 39 shooting. The depth issue in Happy Valley will soon be alleviated when Mike Watkins returns to the team. Watkins has yet to play this season due to an ongoing mental health issue. HC Patrick Chambers has said Watkins might play tonight, but he won't be enough to turn the tide in this Big 10 vs. ACC matchup. 

Va Tech has already beaten one Big 10 team this year, that being #19 Purdue, on their way to winning the Cancun Classic two weekends ago. They've since clobbered St. Francis (PA) 75-37. But even though they won by 38, that was actually only an 11-point game at halftime. But the Hokies were completely dominant over the final 20 minutes, holding the Red Flash to just 15 points. Tonight marks the Hokies' first "true" road game of the season, but I think they'll be up to the task. This team is legit as I've got them right around the same national ranking the pollsters do in my own personal power ratings. Penn State simply lacks the offensive firepower necessary to keep pace here. 8* Virginia Tech

10* Over Magic/Warriors (10:35 ET): Golden State seems to have righted the ship, although a one-point win over Sacramento on Saturday was hardly inspiring. The Dubs have now covered only one of their last eight games as they continue to try to overcome the absences of both Steph Curry and Draymond Green. Tonight they face an Orlando team that is much improved this year, evident by the fact the Magic come in on a 5-1 ATS hot streak (4-2 straight up). As has been the case w/ most recent Warriors' lines, this one looks short, but you obviously have to factor in the Curry and Green injuries. I also happen to think the O/U line here is too low and that's where the value is in on Monday night's matchup. Take the Over. 

Orlando played yesterday and pulled out an upset in LA, beating the Lakers 108-104 as 7.5-pt underdogs. The Magic had two 30+ point quarters in the win, though they by no means shot the ball particularly well. We do have to be cognizant here of the fact that Orlando only shoots 43.5% from the floor on the road. But the Over is 3-1 this season when the team is playing the second night of a back to back. Defensively, I expect them to struggle tonight. Golden State is still #2 in the league in offensive efficiency w/ both Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson both guaranteed to play. There's also a chance Green could return (listed as "day to day"). 

Even with Curry and Green missing time, the Warriors are still shooting nearly 50% for the season and average 116 PPG. Durant has caught fire in the last two games, scoring 76 pts on 55% overall shooting. Thompson went for 62 points, making nine three-pointers total. Both, particularly Durant, had really struggled from three-point range during the first and only four-game losing streak of the Steve Kerr era. Something not really talked about is the Warriors have regressed defensively this year. Hidden in the midst of all the scoring the last several years is the fact they usually rank near the top of the league in defensive efficiency. This year, they've slipped to 15th, one spot ahead of Orlando. 10* Over Magic/Warriors

8* Houston (8:20 ET): Back in Week 2, these teams met and the Titans won 20-17 in Nashville. But a lot has changed since then. Houston actually started 0-3, but is now 7-3 SU and leads the division. I've got them favored in all but one of their remaining games (Week 16 at Philadelphia), so there's a pretty clear path for them to win the AFC South. But the first order of business is exacting some revenge on Tennessee. The Texans actually outgained the Titans 437-238 in that first meeting, so a case could be made that they were the better team that day. The game was decided by a Ryan Succop 31-yard field goal w/ one minute remaining. I don't see the Texans' seven-game win streak getting snapped Monday night. Lay the short number. 

It was two weeks ago that the Titans treated me quite nicely. They upset the Patriots, 34-10 as 6.5-pt underdogs. But that was at home. It was also the third straight Titans game I'd cashed a winning ticket. I had them plus the points in a cover vs. the Chargers (over in London) and also the Over when they appeared on MNF vs. Dallas two weeks ago. They beat the Cowboys 28-14 and then came another upset (over the Patriots). But just as the team seemed to be hitting its stride under 1st year HC Mike Vrabel, they laid a complete egg last week in a 38-10 loss at Indianapolis. This offense hasn't been particularly effective this year (28th in scoring) and only averages 16.3 PPG on the road. For me, the status of QB Marcus Mariota (elbow) is largely irrelevant to this play. (Though it would be nice to go against Blaine Gabbert. 

Houston hasn't exactly beaten a "murderer's row" during this 7-game win streak of theirs and all but two wins have been by 7 pts or less. But I think this has the potential to be one of their bigger wins - in terms of margin of victory - all year. This Titans offense really shouldn't scare anyone (check numbers above), but especially a Texans defense which is giving up just 19.7 PPG at home and has a top 10 pass rush. While both of these defenses are top six in yards per game allowed, Houston has a huge edge offensively. I realize that the Titans beat the Texans w/o Mariota back in Week 2, but with or w/o him here, I can't see them pulling off what would be their first season sweep of the Texans in a decade. 8* Houston

8* Cleveland (7:05 ET): The Cavs have been kind to me twice in the past week, covering the entire 96 minutes against a pair of supposed heavyweights, Los Angeles and Houston. They lost the Lakers game, LeBron's much hyped return to Cleveland, but easily covered a drastically inflated number (+9) in a 109-105 final. I also had them Saturday night in a huge upset of Houston (were 10-pt dogs) here at home. In between, they pulled another upset, perhaps one of the biggest you'll see this entire NBA season. They entered Philly on Friday as 13-point dogs and one of the three teams in the league w/o a road win. The Sixers were undefeated at home. All the Cavs did was pull a 121-112 upset where they led by as many 15 in the 4th quarter. This is an undervalued team right now! 

Ironically, Minnesota was one of the other two teams w/o a road win heading into Friday night. All three teams (these two + Phoenix) got the job done that night, however. Minnesota won in Brooklyn, 112-102, but that's a team missing its leading scorer. The T'wolves then won again Saturday, 111-96 over lowly Chicago. But that was at home. I get that the Cavs have experienced their fair share of issues, but laying this many points w/ a Minnesota team that has just one road win seems like a classic case of putting the "cart before the horse." The T'wolves have just two wins this year by more than 10 points. When these teams met in the Twin Cities earlier this year, the Cavs were only 8.5-pt dogs and covered (ever so slightly) in a 131-123 loss. So you can see the value here. 

Now Cleveland have Kevin Love (former T'wolf!) for that first meeting. He led the team w/ 25 points. But Minnesota also still had Jimmy Butler (since traded to Philadelphia), who led his squad w/ 33 points. That was the second game of the year for both teams. The Cavs now lean on rookie Collin Sexton, who just scored a career-high 29 points Saturday vs. Houston. Minnesota is 5-2 SU since dealing Butler, including a 4-1 SU/ATS mark as a favorite. But they've never been asked to lay more than 2.5 pts on the road this year and Cleveland isn't substantially worse than most prior T'wolves' opponents. 8* Cleveland

8* Nebraska (7:00 ET): This is the first game of the annual "Big 10-ACC Challenge" and these schools met in LY's event as well. The 2017 meeting also took place here in Death Valley w/ Clemson holding serve 60-58, though they did not come close to covering the 10.5-point spot. This year, the Cornhuskers are a much stronger team, one more than capable of pulling the upset here. In fact, my numbers say they should be favored here and are also a top 20 team in the country. Nebraska will be a player in the Big 10 this year, mark my words, and they'll help the conference here w/ a win in an event usually owned by the ACC. Take the points.

This will be Nebraska's first "true" road game. They do have a loss already, to Texas Tech in the Hall of Fame Classic at Kansas City. But the Red Raiders are really good right now and ranked #3 in the country (per KenPom) in defensive efficiency. I'm really not sure how the Red Raiders aren't in the Top 25 (should be after Monday). Clemson is (#16 as of this writing), but off a loss to another Nebraska school, that being Creighton. It was an 87-82 loss on Wednesday. The Tigers haven't played since. Meanwhile, Nebraska did get a chance to bounce back from its lone loss. In Lincoln, they clobbered Western Carolina over the weekend (Saturday), 73-49. 

In a two-point loss LY on this court, Nebraska missed 14 of 18 three-point attempts. That was essentially the difference in a game where neither side shot well overall. Clemson also had a massive edge in free throws (+15 in attempts, +13 in makes). Not so sure the Tigers can count on those same advantages being present this time around. Nebraska is averaging 80.5 PPG so far this season, but it's real strength is its defense, which ranks 4th nationally in scoring (51.7 PPG allowed). I realize that Clemson lost only one game on its home court this season, but it is 0-3 ATS here in Death Valley so far this season. Being left out of the NCAA Tournament (despite 22 wins) last year has this Cornhuskers team highly motivated coming into 2018-19. I'm higher on this team than most and look for them to justify my faith Monday night. 8* Nebraska

10* Wofford (7:00 ET): For already the third time this season, Wofford gets a crack at a Power 5 school. They're 0-2 so far, but have taken on North Carolina and Oklahome. They actually got the Tar Heels at home (season opener!), but that's obviously one of the top teams in the country. Still, the Terriers only lost by 11. They lost by that same margin down in Norman, Oklahoma. South Carolina certainly isn't on the level of a UNC and I don't even have them at OU's level. Therefore, this number looks inflated. Wofford has topped 90 points in three games vs. lesser competition while South Carolina is 1-4 ATS w/ two SU losses. Take the points.

Wofford got to host the Gamecocks LY and came up well short, 73-52 as 6.5-pt dogs. They shot poorly (34.7% overall!) while South Carolina went 11 of 23 from behind the arc. To call this a huge week in the history of the Wofford basketball program would be putting it mildly. After this game, they'll host East Tenn State in the SoCon opener (East Tenn St won Conf Tourney last season). Then it's a date w/ current #1 Kansas. But don't think for a second that Wofford is going to overlook South Carolina, an in-state opponent, as this represents a golden opportunity to knock off a P5 school. 

The Gamecocks did not play at all the week of Thanksgiving. Last time we saw them, they turned in easily their best performance to date, a 90-55 whitewashing of George Washington. The Gamecocks were 11.5-pt favorites, so it was a game they were expected to win comfortably. But I think that final margin of victory has had some unnecessary influence on this line. You do have to tip your cap to the way South Carolina defended against GW. They limited the Colonials to 28% shooting overall, including 4 of 27 in the 1H. They went into halftime w/ an incredible 56-18 lead. Things won't come that easy again the rest of this season and certainly not tonight against a mid-major that shoots the ball very well. South Carolina is just 5-15 ATS when playing w/ 7 or more days of rest. 10* Wofford

8* Minnesota (8:20 ET): One of these teams is going to lose in primetime for a second straight week. For the Vikings, it would be a second straight Sunday night loss as they fell in this same spot to the Bears last week. Green Bay lost last Thursday up in Seattle, a game they actually led most of the way. Of course, the teams could always tie here like they did in Week 2. Though the final score was 29-29 at Lambeau back in September, I don't think there was any doubt as to which team was better. Minnesota had a 480-351 edge in total yardage and outgained the Pack 7.2 to 5.0 on a per play basis. Yes, Packers fans will argue that the late roughing the passer call on Clay Matthews was bogus (and it was). But the Vikings missed two field goals in overtime and were the better team that day. They've also been the slightly better team all season. 

I really haven't been too impressed with the Packers this season. Their only two wins by more than a field came against the Dolphins and Bills, both at home. The other two wins, over Chicago and San Francisco, both required comebacks of the more improbable variety. They have not won a road game this season, now 0-5 SU and giving up 29.8 PPG. They haven't beaten the Vikings in the last two season, though they were w/o Aaron Rodgers for 1.5 games last year. With three tough road losses occurring over the last four weeks, this is a bad spot for a team that doesn't profile as much better than mediocre. 

Vikings QB Kirk Cousins is now 4-12 SU all-time in primetime games after LW's 25-20 loss in Chicago. But as you know, primetime games usually involve top teams. Minnesota's three losses this year have been to the Rams, Saints and Bears, the top three teams in the NFC, all in primetime. Cousins' poor record in these "big games" figures to be the prevailing narrative heading into this one. But Green Bay simply is not at the level of those aforementioned teams. I think that the Vikings should be favored by more than a field goal here as I view them as the better team. Their defense is stronger at home where it yields only 19.8 PPG. Green Bay's offense averages only 21.6 PPG on the road. 8* Minnesota

10* Over Suns/Pistons (4:05 ET): I've had quite a bit of success playing the Over in Suns games this week. I'm 2-0 w/ winners on Monday (in Philly) and Wednesday (in Chicago). Monday's game in Philly saw them lose 119-114 (total was 219.5) and Wednesday in Chicago was another loss (124-116) where the game flew past the O/U line (217.5). I did not play the game Friday as the team picked up a shocking 116-114 win in Milwaukee, as 13.5-pt underdogs. That game did not go Over either, just falling short of the 232.5 pt total. But it certainly still featured plenty of scoring. Phoenix will wrap up its four-game road trip against the Eastern Conference Sunday afternoon in Detroit and the O/U line is back where I like it. Take the Over on this one. 

The Pistons are coming off a home and home w/ the Rockets where the team playing host won both games. Detroit covered the game in Houston, losing by only two, then pulled an upset on Friday. The game in the Motor City went into overtime, which I'm still a little "sore" about as that cost me what would have been an easy winner on the Under. The game was tied 98-98 at the end of regulation (total closed 216.5), but the teams combined to score 31 points in the extra five minutes. For the Pistons, that upset was right in line w/ other recent performances as the team is now 5-2 SU over its L7 games. They're 6-1 ATS in that same stretch, covering four straight. 

When making the case for the Over in Phoenix games earlier this week, I noted the Suns were dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. They've since moved up a spot, to 29th, passing Cleveland. But they are still obviously very bad at that end of the floor. They've allowed an average of 119 PPG on the current road trip. Detroit has little trouble scoring anyway (111.2 PPG), so they should put up a lot of points tonight. At the same time, they're not so great defensively either, giving up an average of over 110 PPG. The Suns came into this season on a 27-8 Over run when scoring 115+ points their previous games. All three games on this road trip have seen at least 230 points scored while Detroit games are averaging 222.3 PPG. 10* Over Suns/Pistons

10* NY Jets (1:00 ET): With the Patriots off both a loss (a bad one to the Titans) and a bye, the expection here will be for them to win in a blowout. The 3-7 Jets have little to play for, though they too are off their bye and a bad loss before it. Their offense is averaging less than 11 PPG during a four game losing streak. Before the bye, they were crushed 41-10 by a Bills team starting Matt Barkley at QB, as a 7-pt home favorite no less. Then again, the Patriots certainly didn't look the part of a 6.5-pt road favorite when they were soundly beaten by Tennessee, 34-10, two weeks ago. This line has all the makings of an overlay as New England has struggled away from home this year and this rivalry has a history of close games. Take the points. 

The past five meetings here at MetLife Stadium have all been decided by seven points or less w/ the Jets winning outright twice. Despite winning only two of the past 10 meetings overall, the Jets have managed to go 8-2 ATS, so the Patriots are consistently overvalued in this rivalry. New England is 0-5 ATS the L5 visits here and has certainly struggled on the road this year w/ bad losses to Jacksonville, Detroit and Tennessee. The only road win this year that came by more than seven points was against the hapless Bills and even that game saw the offense get held to just four field goals through three quarters. Down 18-6, Buffalo was driving late in the fourth quarter to make it a one-score game. But the Patriots got a fortunate pick-six from Derek Anderson to seal the game. 

The Titans provided a nice blueprint for how to beat New England. Clearly, it involves forcing Tom Brady out of the pocket and making him uncomfortable. This Jets defense should be able to do that, although it hasn't forced a single turnover the L4 weeks. The key will be whether or not the Jets can score enough points. It looks like Josh McCown may start at QB as rookie Sam Darnold is still hurt. I wouldn't mind the move anyway considering Darnold's stuggles so far. But what I most lean on is the fact that my power rankings have this spread at 7.5, making the Jets the biggest value bet on the board this season. 10* NY Jets

8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): The Bucs' offense has managed to gain more than 1,000 yds the last two weeks, yet somehow managed to lose both games. That "somehow" can be directly traced to eight turnovers and a QB carousel that has reached almost preposterous proportions. For those keeping score at home, it will be Jameis Winston starting this week. Winston was suspended for the first four games this season and Ryan Fitzpatrick did pretty well in his place. Well, at least for two games. Then Fitzmagic ran out of tricks, which happened to be the first game Winston was eligible to return. Unfortunately, "Famous Jameis" was no better than a struggling Fitzpatrick so Dirk Koetter (a desperate HC, if there ever was one) went back to Fitzpatrick. That didn't last long as Fitzpatrick was bad last week and was removed for Winston, who ALMOST led a big comeback against the Giants.

As sad as this all sounds, I expect the Winston-led Bucs to play well this week. We know the offense can move the ball (and even sometimes score). Two weeks ago, TB had one of the more confounding box scores in recent memory as they outgained Washington 501-286, yet lost 16-3. (They were -4 in turnovers). Last week, they outgained the Giants 510-359, yet were again -4 in TO's and lost 38-35 (at one point, trailed by 17). But with Winston under center, the offense scored touchdowns on four consecutive drives. Winston completed 12 of 16 passes for 199 yards. He did throw one INT, but w/ 23 seconds remaining. Bottom line is that Winston is going to be the more consistent option for the Bucs QB, at least for the rest of 2018.

I think San Francisco, specifically QB Nick Mullens, is still getting too much residual credit for one performance against the terrible Raiders. The follow-up act wasn't very good as the Niners lost at home to the Giants, 27-23. Mullens wasn't nearly as good the second time around, throwing a couple of picks. Mullens is of course the third different starting QB for San Fran after both Garoppolo and Beatherd were lost to season-ending injuries. The Niners have yet to win a road game this year, largely due to giving up over 28 PPG. Two things really work in Tampa Bay's favor here. One is the game is at home where they're a more respectable 2-2 SU this year. Number two is while the Bucs have the most TO's in the league, San Fran has the fewest takeaways. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Under Giants/Eagles (1:00 ET): The Eagles looked positively inept last week in losing 48-7 to the Saints. Sure, they are really beat up in the secondary right now and while there's never a "good time" to face the Saints, turns out that doing so w/o your 3-5 best players on the backend is not ideal. Still, that's no excuse for Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense to manage only 7 points and less than 300 total yards in a building that's certainly seen the visitor score plenty through the years. My guess is that the Eagles' defense is going to be a lot better this week, at home and not facing the Saints. This defense has consistently been better at home since the start of last season. The home vs. road splits are pretty striking as at home they're allowing only 19.8 PPG as opposed to 26.4 on the road. 

The Giants scored 38 points last week and that's about as common as a blue moon. But Big Blue was facing one of the worst defenses in the entire league as Tampa Bay is 28th in yards allowed and 32nd (last) in scoring. To sa, there should be a Giants' decline this week, at least offensively, is putting it mildly. It was actually the second time this year that the G-Men scored 31 or more, but they've also been held to 18 pts or fewer in half of their games plus just 20 in one more. QB Eli Manning is over the hill, so it matters little that he had Odell Beckham and Saquon Barkley a his disposal. Before scoring 31 in a losing effort at Carolina last month, this Giants offense had gone 37 consecutive games, almost 2 1/2 seasons, without scoring 30 pts. 

These teams already played once, in New Jersey obviously, and the Eagles rolled to a 34-13 victory. They jumped on the Giants early w/ two quick touchdowns on short fields, one off a turnover and the other coming on a long punt return. The secondary issue still remains for Philly as they could be without their top FIVE cornerbacks. But Manning has not thrown for many yards his last two games despite a high completion percentage. If the GIANTS' defense can hold Wentz and company in check, then there's no doubt in my mind that this turns into a low-scoring game. The last six meetings have all found a way to go Over the total, but this is the one that bucks the trend. The Under is 4-1 in Eagles home games this year. 10* Under Giants/Eagles

10* Cleveland (7:35 ET): Interestingly enough, there were three NBA teams that hadn't won a single road game going into yday. All three (Minnesota, Cleveland, Phoenix) won on the road Friday! It's a debate as to which was the bigger shocker: Phoenix winning at Milwaukee, or Cleveland winning in Philly. The Cavs were facing a Sixers team that was unbeaten at home and looked like the hungrier team, jumping out to a 22-8 lead early in the game and shooting 52.7% overall, including 11 of 22 from three-point range. Perhaps you could make the case Philly was still a little "full" from Thanksgiving, but tip your cap to Cleveland for what was their most impressive peformance of the season to date.

Houston also played last night, but they lost in Detroit, 116-111 in OT. The fact that the game went to overtime is a bit of a "sore subject" for me as it allowed the game to go Over the total and I had Under (was 98-98 at the end of regulation). For the Rockets, the loss snapped a five-game win streak. Four of the wins had come at home, however, including one over those same Pistons (by 2) on Wednesday. With Carmelo Anthony persona non grata, the Rockets have been playing a lot better of late, but they're being asked to lay a big number on the road here and they've actually still been outscored this season. You also have to factor in the back to back. 

While Cleveland is definitely not a playoff team, I've been impressed w/ how they've looked the L2 games. I had them here at home against the Lakers Weds night. That was LeBron's much hyped return and the Cavs easily covered that one. The fact that this team has led the Lakers and Sixers for almost all of the 96 minutes (they did wilt late vs. LA) has to be taken into consideration. So does the number, which is huge. As bad as Cleveland has looked at times this year, they've only been a double-digit dog three times and all were on the road. I think we have to be a little careful in pronouncing "Houston's back" after all the trouble they had at the start of the season. 10* Cleveland

10* Kansas State (7:00 ET): I think it might shock a lot of people to find out that Kansas State has beaten Iowa State 10 straight times. However, during that win streak it's been the Cyclones covering the majority of the games. The team from Ames has covered each of the last four meetings, which have been decided by a total of 13 points. With the setup here being so contradictory to past history, I suspect the result will be too. The most likely result here is an Iowa State win, but failure to cover. Both of these teams are better suited when in the underdog role. For Iowa State, they are in an emotional letdown spot after losing at home to Texas last week. That defeat ended any hope of the Cyclones playing for a Big XII Championship. 

Even last season when Iowa State was overachieving to get to 8-5 SU, they lost in Manhattan, 20-19 as a 2-pt dog. Now, they did lose RB Montgomery to an injury and gave up the game-winning TD w/ no time remaining on the clock. Certainly, they'll be out for revenge, but it's tough to like this team as such an overwhelming favorite. They are just 1-2 ATS so far when laying points in Ames and that one cover was a bit of a lucky one as they got a garbage-time TD against Texas Tech. The 26-14 loss to Texas last Saturday night could certainly have put a "damper" on the Cyclones' collective spirits as I think playing for a Big XII Championship was far more important to this group than getting revenge against Kansas State. 

Another reason to like the points here is that the game figures to be so low-scoring. Just look at the O/U line. Both teams come in w/ top 25 defenses. Kansas State has been blown out three times this year, but only by top 15 teams (Miss St, WVU, Oklahoma). They are 5-0 ATS as a dog otherwise, including two outright wins, one of them coming last week against Texas Tech. The Wildcats have done a good job getting to the cusp of bowl eligibility and need a win here to get to the postseason. So they won't go down w/o a fight for HC Snyder. The last three games have seen this Wildcats' defense allow an average of just 12.3 PPG. Iowa State is only outscoring its opponents by 4.5 PPG this season. The dog should be the more motivated side and has history on its side, knowing that it has dominated this rivalry. 10* Kansas State 

8* William & Mary (4:00 ET): W&M comes into this game on a four-game losing streak, including a home defeat at the hands of Radford Tuesday. That last loss sounds worse than it really is as not only Radford is going to be a player in the Big South this year (top team), but W&M was incredibly short-handed for the contest, down three starters. Still, oddsmakers had the game listed as pick 'em even though the Tribe were starting three freshman. Now it isn't good that W&M allowed Radford to shoot 58% for the contest or that they rank outside the top 300 (per KenPom) in defensive efficiency. But, the Tribe can score as is evident by placing in the Top 60 (per KenPom) on the offensive end. Last year's team averaged 85.0 PPG, which was 4th best in the country. 

St. Joe's is coming off a loss in the third place game of the Myrtle Beach Invitational last weekend. After clobbering Wake Forest in the first game (won by 20 pts), the Hawks went down in the next two, losing to UCF and WVU. The West Virginia loss is certainly excusable, but losing by to 20 UCF wasn't the best of looks. Also, there has to be a concern over the Hawks lack of defense in those two games as they face a William & Mary team that will definitely want to pick up the pace. Not only did St. Joe's give up 97 points to West Virginia, but they also let UCF shoot 55% from the field. 

William & Mary's health is obviously important to this game, but it looks as if at least two of the three starters that missed the Radford game will return here. This is a young team, but the freshman getting so much playing time against Radford will be beneficial for the future. The loss to Radford snapped a 23-game home non-conference win streak for the Tribe. This is an explosive team that should thrive in the underdog role Saturday afternoon. They were also short-handed against Notre Dame last week and still managed to cover that game. Besides Radford, the Tribe's other three losses all came in "true" road games and one (to UIC) was by just five points. Don't be surprised at an upset here. 8* William & Mary

10* Miami FL (3:30 ET): All signs point towards "the U" getting the job done here. Sure, they'd lost four in a row before last week's convincing 38-14 over Virginia Tech. And they were on a 5-game ATS losing streak as well. Opponent Pitt arrives in the Coral Gables finale riding a four-game (SU) win streak and has covered five in a row. But let's look at the situation as opposed to recent form. The situation will call for some major revenge to be exacted as the Canes, ranked #2 in the entire country at the time, were upended 24-14 LY at Heinz Field (at Pittsburgh), ending their own 10-game unbeaten run (it was their 1st loss of the season and the start of a three-game slide to end the year). Just like Pitt here, Miami knew it was already ACC Championship Game bound. They were also severely beat up and down multiple key offensive playmakers. Miami gets its revenge (and them some) Saturday afternoon at Hard Rock Stadium. 

So Pitt has the disadvantage of coming into this game knowing full well it has a huge date set w/ #2 (and unbeaten) Clemson (sound familiar?) next week in the ACC Championship Game. They clinched that spot by going on the road last Saturday and beating Wake Forest, 34-13 as 5.5-pt chalk. They were down at the half, 10-6, but outscored the Demon Deacons 28-3 after that w/ QB Kenny Pickett throwing three touchdowns and a career-best 316 yards. It was just the second road win of the year for the Panthers as this is still the only FBS team to lose to North Carolina this season. That loss seems like its "eons ago" as Pat Narduzzi's team has "circled the wagons" to win 5 of its last 6 games. 

Just to illustrate how no one saw Pitt coming; last week was just the second time they'd been favored since September. They're back to the more customary role of dog here, as they should be. Miami has been favored in every game this season, so they've been a disappointment. But it doesn't mean that the Hurricanes still aren't the better team here. I have them, not Pitt, ranked as the top team in the Coastal and the 2nd best team in the ACC overall. In fact, I don't have Pitt ranked in my top 40 teams in the country! After four straight tough losses, we finally saw what Miami was capable of last week in a 38-14 destruction of Va Tech, in Blacksburg no less. The defense shut the Hokies out completely in the 2nd half and QB Perry was responsible for 3 TDs. Remembering what Pitt did to them in 2017, Miami will be ready this year, particularly their defense which is giving up only 14.8 PPG at home. 10* Miami 

8* Tulsa (3:30 ET): This line absolutely reeks and it's almost as if the oddsmakers are begging you to lay the points w/ SMU. The Ponies were kind to us a few weeks ago when - as a two touchdown UNDERDOG - they beat Houston by 14 points. At the time, I noted in the analysis that this was a team on the rise and sure enough they followed that win up w/ a 62-point effort against hapless UConn. But things didn't go nearly as well when I packed them last week as they lost at home to Memphis, 28-18. That leaves SMU needing a win here against 2-win Tulsa to become bowl eligible. Laying a field goal or less sounds like an ideal situation, but this has all the makings of a trap game and I'm going to call for the Golden Hurricane to pull the upset! Take the points. 

Tulsa's only conference win came against UConn. It's also their only win against a FBS opponent all year. But it's not as if the Golden Hurricane haven't been competitive at times this year. They lost at Texas by only a touchdown. I've played them only once and it was an easy cover on a Friday night vs. USF, a game they led most of the way and probably should have won. Since losing that game, it's been a downhill slide, but believe it or not, Tulsa has actually been outscored by fewer points per game than SMU has this season. Last week against Navy, they had trouble stopping the triple option, but it's a very different type of offense that they'll be going up against this week. At home, Tulsa has been far more competitive this year, having both the edge in scoring and total yardage over the opposition.

I believe the Golden Hurricane will be able to run the ball effectively in this matchup. They already run for over 200 yards per game and as we saw last week, the SMU defense is very shaky against the run. They're giving up over 200 YPG on the ground, which is 102nd in the country. Tulsa's run defense is actually worse, but SMU doesn't like to run the ball that much, so that won't be that big of an issue Saturday afternoon. SMU's defense gives up 36.0 PPG for the year and 42.4 PPG on the road. The home team has won three straight in this conference rivalry and SMU has not covered either time it was a favorite this year. Look for Tulsa to treat this is as "their bowl game" and shock a lot of people. 8* Tulsa 

8* New Mexico (2:30 ET): Wyoming pulled off an improbable cover last Saturday, scoring three late touchdowns (all in the final 4:32) to win 35-27 as 2.5-point home favorites. As far as the betting window was concerned, the decisive TD came with 45 seconds left after an Air Forxe turnover. Full disclosure: I had Air Force. So there's obviously an emotional component to me wanting to fade Wyoming a second straight week. But there's also a lot of numbers-based logic as this is still a bad team, one that has problems scoring (19.7 PPG) and they are barely inside my top 100 teams in the country. I realize that they need this game to become bowl eligible, but so do the oddsmakers and as a result we have an inflated number. Take the points w/ New Mexico here.

The Lobos are only playing for pride in this final regular season game. Bob Davie's team comes into Saturday's last home game as losers of six in a row and at 4-7 SU overall. But if you recall, earlier this month, I cashed them plus the points here in Albuquerque against San Diego State. They actually led the Aztecs much of the way before wilting late in the fourth quarter. This is a much weaker foe that they're getting this week and there should be some level of motivation based on it being the final home game for the outgoing Senior Class. Over the L6 games, New Mexico has had to play the top four teams in the Mountain West - Utah State, Fresno State, San Diego State and last week, Boise State. So the losing skid doesn't really bother me. I still believe this line ought to be closer to a pick 'em. 

Wyoming was a much better team last year when they beat New Mexico 42-3. That game was also in Laramie and they had Josh Allen at QB. The last time they visited New Mexico, their defense allowed a school-record 568 yards rushing. This is a defense that still doesn't have suspended DT Youhanna Ghaifan and gave up 362 yards rushing to Air Force. The offense's inability to score will catch up with it here. The late flurry against Air Force is not indicative of Wyoming's season. They also lost their starting QB and RB to injury last week! The Cowboys' three-game win streak has come exclusively against teams w/ losing records and while New Mexico fits that same bill, they should be competitive in this spot and cover the spread in a low-scoring affair. 8* New Mexico

8* Under Jazz/Lakers (10:35 ET): What in the world has gone wrong w/ Utah? This is a troubled team right now. Wednesday night saw them lose outright at home (as 9.5-pt favorites) to Sacramento. That loss comes on the heels of a 2-3 SU road trip where they twice got their doors blown off, once by 27 at Indiana and the other time by 50 (!) at Dallas. In no way does this currently resemble the squad many thought would emerge as the #2 team in the Western Conference (behind Golden State) this year. Currently, they're 8-10 SU and giving up over 109 PPG on the season. On offense, they've averaged just 95.4 points over the last five games.

The Lakers are off somewhat of an emotional win as LeBron returned to Cleveland and led his new team to a 109-105 victory. They didn't cover, which made me happy as I was on the Cavs. In fact, Cleveland (a 9.5-pt dog) led outright most of the way, not conceding the lead until there was just over a minute left in the game. The Lakers haven't been a great team to bet on (just 6-11 ATS), which isn't surprising as you had to figure they've be overvalued due to the expectations of James coming on boad. I thought the expectation that the Lakers would be an automatic playoff team in the loaded West was a bit premature. But this team is playing pretty well right now, having won six of its last seven.

These teams are tied in defensive efficiency, ranking 19th. That's not all that impressive, but I look for this to be a bit of a low-scoring game. Eight of the Lakers last 10 games have stayed Under the total. Oddsmakers are still scrambling some after the scoring "explosion" we saw league-wide early in the season. So we're still able to get some O/U lines higher than they ought to be. This is one of them. The Lakers' defense has actually been much better of late, plus Utah has failed to score even 100 pts in four of its last six games. Utah was a top defensive team LY and I suspect we'll start to see their numbers at that end of the floor start to improve as well. 8* Under Jazz/Lakers

8* Cal Poly (10:00 ET): Portland is the host team in this tourney and won its first game, 73-56 over USC Upstate. It was their third win in a row and fourth of the season. But most of the wins haven't been all that impressive. Two were against non-board teams and they allowed over 100 pts in the season opener vs. Multnomah Bible College, a NAIA school that went 22 of 50 from three-point range. There was another close call at Cal State Northridge, whom the Pilots downed 80-77, but only after trailing by as many as 18 pts. So what I'm saying is that I really don't trust this team laying this many points, even if they are the tourney hosts. 

Cal Poly is a conference rival of Cal State Northridge. So maybe they had a chance to dial up the Matadors' coaching staff for a scouting report. Even if they didn't, look for the Mustangs to keep up in this game. They've lost three in a row, so motivation should be high here. Two of those three losses were to Pac 12 schools, Arizona and Wazzu, so no shame there. The most recent one came here in Portland in an ugly 54-42 game w/ Texas State. The Mustangs actually led the game at the half, 23-16, but went scoreless for nine minutes in the 2H and that was the difference in the game.

Cal Poly has not been a good ATS team the last three seasons, going just 18-39 vs. the number overall. That includes a hideous 1-14 mark after scoring 60 pts or less the previous game. But I'll call for them to buck the trend here. The issues against Texas State were a) getting dominated on the boards and b) shooting only 3 of 16 from three-point range. Both of those issues are easily correctable facing Portland. First off, the Pilots aren't a great rebounding team. Two, we already talked about their issues defending the three-point line. Take the points here. 8* Cal Poly

8* Puck Line Vancouver (9:05 ET): The Canucks are in a pretty bad way right now as they've dropped seven in a row. But four of those seven losses have come by just one goal, opening up the opportunity to exploit the puck line tonight. Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking Vancouver +1.5. I actually think there's a pretty good chance they pull the upset tonight in San Jose, but just to be careful we'll go w/ the added insurance of the PL.

Six of the seven losses during Vancouver's current slide have come in regulation. But this was a team that also started the season a solid 10-6-1. They've had to play a lot on the road recently, many of the games coming out East. It's not like San Jose has been a favorite destination of theirs as they've lost five in a row here and are just 1-9 vs. the Sharks overall the L3 seasons. But San Jose has its own set of struggles going on right now. Coming out of the Thanksgiving holiday, I think this sets up as the perfect ambush spot for Vancouver. Remember, all we need is for them to be tied at the end of regulation.

San Jose lost here at home to Edmonton Wednesday, 4-3. The Sharks might be closer to the top of the Pacific Division than the Canucks are, but the gap between the two teams is just four points. San Jose has given up at least four goals in three of its last four games. So expecting them to win by more than one goal seems like putting the "cart before the horse." The Sharks have just one win by more than one goal this month. They are 3-4 SU against teams w/ a losing record this year. 8* Puck Line Vancouver (+1.5)

6* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET): I like the chances of this game turning into a rout pretty quickly as the 15-6-1 Lightning host the 8-9-5 Blackhawks. This is a total mismatch with the Lightning rated #2 in my own power rankings while the Blackhawks are 31st (last!). The game takes place in Tampa Bay where the home team is a solid 8-3. The Lightning are the highest scoring team in the league right now (3.8 goals per game) while the Blackhawks are near the bottom (27th) at 2.6 per game. Having only won twice in November, I just don't see how Chicago competes here.

Tampa Bay's scoring prowess was on full display Wednesday as they found the back of the net seven times against Florida. That was the first game since Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov were split up and put on different lines. The move worked with the duo combining for two goals and five assists. Individually, it was a season-high for points from Stamkos. Keep in mind that there wasn't much wrong with this team to begin with, so any tinkering is just "icing on the cake." At home this year, the Lightning average 4.3 goals per game. They simply have too much firepower for their opponent tonight. 

With #1 goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy out, you might normally think the Lightning could be susceptible to an upset here. But not against this Chicago team that has had all sorts of problems scoring recently. In the L6 games, the Blackhawks have scored just nine goals. As I suspected, a surprising coaching change (Joel Quenneville fired on November 6th) did little, if anything, to alter the trajectory of this team. Its issues go well beyond a simple lack of scoring as they also rank 26th in goals allowed. Quite frankly, there isn't really anything that the Blackhawks do particularly well. The Lightning already beat them 6-3 in the Windy City last month. At home, it should be even easier. 6* Tampa Bay

10* Under Rockets/Pistons (7:05 ET): These teams just played Wednesday in Houston. The Rockets won 126-124, shooting 55.6 percent from the field. Though it ended up being a two-point game, Houston actually led by much more w/ just five minutes to go. The lead was 14 pts to be exact. The key to Detroit's ultimately failed comeback was top Rockets' defender P.J. Tucker getting ejected (two techs). With Tucker gone from the game, Blake Griffin went off, making five three-pointers. Overall, the Pistons scored 41 pts in the 4th quarter. I don't see that happening again nor do I see Houston shooting as well on the road. Tucker should play the full game this time and thus I see this second game of a home & home staying Under. 

To the shock of no one, Houston has improved dramatically since ridding itself of Carmelo Anthony. Melo is still on the roster, but not playing and things have taken a positive turn since that decision was made. Wednesday was the Rockets' fifth win in a row and eighth in the L10 games. After shockingly getting held under 100 pts six times in the first 11 games, the team has averaged 117.8 points over its last five games. That number coming on better than 50% shooting. While an offensive uptick was to expected, especially w/o Anthony, I don't think the Rockets will be able to sustain the production of the L5 games. They also only average 103.4 PPG on the road. 

Detroit should bounce back defensively in this one as the Under is 21-8 for them the L3 seasons if they allowed 115+ points the L3 games. This is a top 10 team in the league in defensive efficiency right now. As far as Houston's overall shooting percentage for the year, it's just 43.9%. The Pistons aren't exactly a great shooting team either at 43.3% for the year. Over the L3 seasons, the team is also 20-9 Under after scoring 115+ points. The teams combined to make 29 of 72 three-point attempts on Wednesday, which is a high percentage. Not surprisingly, the O/U line has been set a few points higher for tonight. That leads to some value and like I said, I'm on the Under. 10* Under Rockets/Pistons 

8* Cincinnati (3:30 ET): Each team here experienced a result last week that they're not very used to. For East Carolina, it was a win and a definitive one at that, 55-21 over sorry UConn (Pirates were -17.5). Consider ECU had been favored only one other time against a FBS foe this season and they didn't cover, beating Old Dominion by just two points. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is off a humbling setback at the hands of unbeaten UCF. Luke Fickell's Bearcats were in the wrong place at the wrong time Saturday night as ESPN College Gameday was in Orlando and it was a raucous atmosphere, leading to a 38-13 defeat. Still, it was just Cincy's second loss of the season and for East Carolina, last week was only their third win of the season. So that's the backdrop heading into this regular season finale.

East Carolina has nothing left to play for as bowl eligibilty is out the window. They did give the Seniors a nice win in the final home game, so I can just assume that this game will carry little priority for the Pirates, who have played better than the record shows, but that's of little consequence as they head to a third straight three-win season under HC Scottie Montgomery. The road has been unkind to the Pirates as they're 0-3 SU away from Greenville, averaging only 12.3 PPG. This looks like a total mismatch facing a Bearcats team that is 5-0 SU at home, winning by an average margin of 26 PPG. Cincy has a very good defense (they allow only 17.0 PPG) and I just don't see how East Carolina is going to score very much in this game.

Though they lost by 25 pts on the scoreboard, I thought Cincinnati played a lot better against UCF than the final score showed. Total yardage was relatively even and while one of the Bearcats two scores came from the defense, it was their own three turnovers that killed any chance of winning. While it might sound tough to recoup from a loss like that, playing for a 10-win season is certainly a big enough deal. The Bearcats also have some payback on the mind after they suffered a humiliating defeat LY in Greenville, 48-20 as three-point favorites. But that was when the Pirates had Gardner Minshew at QB and he's now plying his trade in greener pastures for Wazzu. Minshew threw for 444 yds in LY's meeting, at the time a career-high for him. He's not around anymore to save ECU. 8* Cincinnati

10* Iowa (12:00 ET): The Scott Frost era obviously got off to a dubious beginning w/ the first ever 0-6 start in Lincoln. Tip your cap for the way Frost has been able to right the Nebraska ship over the last month w/ the Cornhuskers winning four of their last five games, the only loss coming at Ohio State. They are also now on a seven-game ATS win streak. Truthfully, things were never as bad as they looked w/ four of the team's seven losses this year coming by five points or less. Next year, Nebraska will be able to make waves in the Big 10 West. But it's still 2018 and my power rankings aren't quite that impressed with this Cornhuskers team. Meanwhile, they (meaning power rankings) love Iowa, who also happens to be far better than its record shows. I have zero hesitation about laying the points Friday afternoon in Iowa City in what is my favorite spot of the year!

Outside the top 6-7 teams in the country, it's a real "crapshoot" ranking who the best teams are in College Football this year. I think there are a number of 4-loss teams deserving of being called one of the top 15 in the country and I happen to count Iowa among them. Three of the Hawkeyes' four losses have been in one-score games, the exception being a Sat night home game vs. Wisconsin where they actually led going into the 4th quarter and gave up a "meaningless" TD in the final 30 seconds to lose by 11. Last weekend, the Hawkeyes snapped a three-game losing streak in resounding fashion by handing Illinois its worst defeat in program history, 63-0. That was on the road, mind you. 

While Iowa was busy winning 63-0, Nebraska squeaked out a very ugly 9-6 win over Michigan State. All three field goals came in the 4th quarter on drives that never exceeded 36 yards or seven plays. Thus, it's pretty difficult to imagine this Cornhuskers' offense doing much of anything against an even stingier Iowa defense. (More on that in a second). 

This game is in Iowa City and the home folk should be fired up. The Hawkeyes have beaten the Cornhuskers three straight years, the last two wins both coming by double digits. Nebraska has not won a road game all season, going 0-4 and allowing 41.7 PPG. While Iowa has somehow lost twice this year in Kinnick Stadium, they're giving up an average of just 11.0 points in six games here. Take away that late Wisconsin TD and no visitor has scored more than 21 pts here with five being held to 14 points or less. An impressive win here could land the Hawkeyes in a more marquee bowl game next month. As a favorite this year, Iowa is 7-1 SU and ATS. Plus they have covered six of the last eight times they've been a 3.5 to 10 pt favorite. To me, Iowa is definitely the best team in the Big 10 West this year. 10* Iowa

8* Atlanta (8:20 ET): Playing against the Saints can be hazardous to one's health these days and I found that out the hard way on Sunday as I made the big-time mistake of taking the Eagles. New Orleans beat the Super Bowl Champs 48-7 (game did stay Under!) as seven-point favorites to improve to 9-1 SU/8-2 ATS on the season. They've covered eight in a row, a streak that probably has them on top of everyone's power rankings (I know they're #1 in mine). But as great as the Saints are, this is a pretty insane number for them to be laying against the division rival Falcons. Obviously an adjustment had to be made by the oddsmakers after last week's result, but I don't think for a second that Atlanta is six points worse than Philly. In fact, they're a better team at the stage of the game. 

I can say the Falcons are better than the Eagles, but the reality is both teams are 4-6 SU. That said, the Falcons are better and have the benefit of already playing the Saints earlier in the year. Now they lost, 43-37, but were actually 1.5-pt favorites in that game and it went to overtime. Atlanta even had the lead late before Drew Brees tied the game up w/ a 7-yd TD run w/ just over a minute to go in regulation, capping an 81-yard drive. That was in Week 3 and the Saints haven't lost or failed to cover a game since. But I don't think the Falcons should be considered a full touchdown worse now than they were in September. Sure, they've lost six games, but four of those were by six points or fewer. 

Sunday's 22-19 home loss to Dallas was pretty brutal for the Falcons as they now probably have to win out to have any shot at making the playoffs. I certainly don't think the team is just going to roll over and quit, not after coming back from a 19-9 deficit to tie the game against the Cowboys and not against their biggest division rival in a national TV game. Losing each of the last two weeks (as favorites) has definitely inflated this number along w/ the Saints winning ways. But this Falcons team is rarely an underdog (happened only twice this season) and they've never been getting more than 3.5 pts against any other opponent. There have been only four times in the Matt Ryan era (2008-) where they've been a double digit dog and they've covered every time. 8* Atlanta 

10* North Carolina (7:30 ET): This game is part of the Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational in Vegas and the Tar Heels are forced to make the trip w/o starting PG Seventh Woods as he sustained a concussion in practice on Tuesday. But it's important to note that HC Roy Williams has five players averaging double figures so far and Woods isn't one of them. Yes, he's an important piece, but he only averages 2.8 PPG, which is 11th best on the team. As per usual, this is a deep team coming from Chapel Hill and they've already topped 100 pts three times, albeit against much lesser competition. You'd think a team like UNC might be overvalued heading into its first real test of the season, but the opposite actually holds true here due to the Woods' injury. Lay the points.

Texas, like North Carolina, comes to Las Vegas unbeaten. The Longhorns are 4-0, having already survived an overtime test from Arkansas earlier in the year. Shaka Smart's team is not nationally ranked and my own power rankings confirm they shouldn't be as I've got them just on the outskirts of the top 40. I've already played against them one time already, that being a horrible spot vs. LA Monroe, which was the game after they beat Arkansas in OT. The 'Horns never came close to covering the 19-point spot there, winning only 65-55. They've since recorded their first ATS win of the season as they destroyed The Citadel 97-69 last Friday. The long layoff coming into this Tournament doesn't look like a good thing for Texas, however. They're 0-6 ATS the L6 times playing w/ five or six days rest.

Strangely, Texas has had UNC's number through the years. Roy Williams is just 1-6 SU/ATS vs. the Longhorns as the coach of the Tar Heels, but that record should change for the better after tonight. Were Woods healthy, I would guess this line would be double digits. Missing your starting PG is a big deal, but I think the oddsmakers have overadjusted. While Texas is 1-3 ATS, UNC is 3-1-1 ATS despite being favored by double digits in every game. Their only ATS loss came last time out in a 101-76 win over St. Francis (PA) where they were 27-pt chalk. I've got the Tar Heels ranked right behind rival Duke as the #2 team in the country. Too much scoring for Texas to keep up, in my opinion.  10* North Carolina 

10* Washington (4:30 ET): In the span of roughly one hour last Sunday, the entire landscape of the NFC East changed. The Redskins, who came into the day w/ a 6-3 SU record and in first place, lost starting QB Alex Smith for the rest of the season due to a gruesome leg injury. That's not all they lost on Sunday though as they also dropped a game to the Houston Texans, 23-21 at home. While that was taking place, the Cowboys came from behind to beat the Falcons (in Atlanta), 22-19, for a second straight HUGE road win (won at Philly the week prior). Now the perception is that the division is Dallas' to lose and because of the Smith injury, they're big favorites on Thanksgiving Day. I think this line is a classic overreaction to an injury and will grab the points w/ Washington. 

My own power rankings indicate this should be about a 4-point spread. I don't think that going from Smith to Colt McCoy at QB should move the line much, if at all, and certainly not by more than a field goal. I thought McCoy came in and played well against the Texans, considering the circumstances. TE Jordan Reed became a bigger part of the passing game w/ McCoy under center. McCoy entered when Washington was down 10 and engineered two scoring drives to get his team the lead for a brief time. You also have to remember that Washington has a pretty good defense, one that allows just 19.8 PPG. The only teams to score more than 23 pts against the Redskins this year are the Saints & Falcons.

Dallas lost the first meeting w/ Washington, 20-17, thanks to the usual Jason Garrett ineptitude and a missed FG on the final play. I am very interested to see how the Cowboys perform here on the heels of two big upset wins on the road. They've failed to cover each of the last three times they've been favored, losing two of the games outright. This will be the most points they've been asked to lay in any game so far this season and it comes against a division rival that's already beaten them once before. The Cowboys offense is only averaging 20.3 PPG, so in what should be a low-scoring division game, taking the points sure seems like the way to go. The Redskins are a money-making 6-1 ATS as underdogs already this season. 10* Washington