10* Philadelphia (8:15 ET): I had tremendous success taking home dogs on Sunday and here’s another one where I see a ton of value. Seattle may be regarded as one of the league’s better teams, but they tend to be involved in a lot of close games. So far, seven of their 10 games have been decided by one score. This is a continuation from last season where they went an extremely fortunate 11-3 SU in one-score games. That good fortune has carried over to this year with a 5-2 SU record in those games. Bottom line: the Seahawks may be winning, but they usually win close.

Normally, if a team was a 3-6-1, they’d already be thinking about next season. But because the Eagles (who have that record) play in the NFC East, they are very much still alive for a division title and playoff berth. This despite B2B “ugly” losses to the Giants and Browns. But both of those came on the road. Since losing to the Rams 39-17 back in Week 2, the Eagles are 2-1-1 SU here in Philly with the lone loss coming by two points against the Ravens. That loss to the Ravens was the only other time this season where they were a home dog and they covered the spread. 

Seattle is far from invincible when they hit the road. Their record away from home this season is just 2-3 straight up and against the spread. And let’s not forget just how awful the Seahawks’ pass defense has been. They are allowing 343.7 YPG through the air, most in the league. So I can see Eagles QB Carson Wentz, who has struggled, having his best game in a while here. Even though they are 7-3 SU, Seattle has been outgained by their opponents this season. The Eagles are actually even w/ theirs on a per play basis. Take the points. 10* Philadelphia

7* Leicester City (12:30 ET): Looking at the Premier League table, we’re starting to get some clarity. At the bottom, there are four obvious sides that will clearly be fighting just to stay out of the relegation zone all season. One is recently promoted Fulham, who is off to a 1-1-7 start and currently sits 19th. Those seven losses are second most in the league as we conclude Week 10. The lone win was over West Brom and the draw against Sheffield United, two other sides the Cottagers are battling with in the relegation zone.

Moving to the top of the table, we find Leicester City sitting in 4th place. While you’d think they’d be ecstatic about being in that coveted position, this club is still reeling from an ugly 3-0 loss at the hands of Liverpool last week. Mid-week, they conceded another three times, although this time they were able to escape with a draw against Braga in the Europa League. However, I’d like to remind fans of the Foxes that prior to those two results, their team had won four straight across all competitions with three of those wins coming here in the Premier League.

While it’s a relatively high price to take the home team Monday afternoon, I’m shocked it’s not much higher. Fulham just isn’t ready to compete with a side in the top half of the table, so this looks like a “get-well game” for Leicester City. Leicester is tied for the most wins in the EPL this season (6) while Fulham is tied for the worst defensive record in the league with 18 goals conceded in nine matches. 7* Leicester City

8* Texas (12:30 ET): Both of these teams started the season with a win. However, Texas was clearly more impressive than Davidson. The Longhorns clobbered a clearly overmatched Texas Rio Grande Valley 91-57, easily covering the 21-point spread. Davidson won comfortably against High Point, 82-73, but didn’t come close to covering the 19-point spread. For both teams, it boiled down to defense. Texas held UTRGV to 26.1% shooting. Davidson let High Point shoot a far more respectable 46.6% overall. 

That impressive showing by the Longhorns in the season opener was a continuation of what we saw from this team last year in non-conference play. They gave up only 61.5 PPG in non-conference play in 2019-20, going 10-3 SU in those games. Meanwhile, Davidson was just 6-6 SU in non-conference play a year ago. This is a big step up in class for the Wildcats facing the #22 ranked team in the country. I’ve got Texas very high in my own power ratings and expect this to be a blowout win Monday. 

This game is part of the “Maui Invitational,” which is actually being held in Asheville, NC. Despite the in-state advantage for Davidson, I still feel this should be a double-digit spread. Texas shot 57% from the floor in the opener. While it probably won’t be that easy on Monday, Davidson did just allow High Point to make 11 three-pointers and shoot 40% from behind the arc. The Longhorns did struggle on the offensive end last year, so their shooting in the opening game was certainly a welcome sight. I think it carries over here. Lay the points. 8* Texas

10* Tampa Bay (4:25 ET): The Bucs suffered another primetime loss on Monday, this one against the Rams 27-24. Primetime has accounted for three of the team’s four losses this season and they are 0-4 ATS in such games, the lone win being a nail-biter over the 3-7 Giants. So Tom Brady and company have to be pretty happy to be playing in the 4 PM (ET) window this week, even if the opponent is Kansas City. When NOT playing in primetime this year, Brady is 6-1 SU with the only loss coming back in Week 1 (at New Orleans).

This will also be just the third time this season that Tampa Bay is an underdog. The first was that Week 1 loss in New Orleans. The other was an outright win against Green Bay here at home. Brady is 10-1 ATS with nine outright wins as a home dog in his illustrious career. That earlier win against the Packers marked just the 4th time in the last 15 seasons that Brady has been a home dog. He’s won outright all four times. Brady is also 15-8 ATS coming off a Monday night game. I think this is a great value as my power rankings still say TB should be a slight favorite here. 

Kansas City brings in a vaunted reputation as the defending Super Bowl champs. They are 9-1 SU this season and just avenged their only defeat by beating the Raiders last Sunday night. But they needed a last minute TD to get the win in Vegas and it was the second straight win by four points or less. The defense allowed 31 points to both the Panthers and Raiders. They’ve been particularly susceptible against the pass. The Bucs’ defense, which is outstanding against the run (#1 in the league), can make the Chiefs’ offense one-dimensional. Take the points. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): After playing well in front of a national television audience, the Raiders were the recipients of some “early money” this week, getting bet up to the current price. We had ‘em last Sunday night when they covered against the Chiefs and almost took the game outright. But they lost, 35-31, and what’s interesting here is that this is just the third time all season Las Vegas has been favored! Atlanta has been a giant disappointment in 2020 (already fired their HC), but I don’t think they should be a dog here. 

The Falcons were off their bye last week and facing a QB making his first career start (Taysom Hill). But you can’t discount just how good the Saints are playing right now. Atlanta ended up losing 24-9, dropping them to 3-7 SU on the year. What was so disappointing about LW’s loss is that the Falcons had been playing better before the bye. They’d won three of four games with the only loss coming by 1 point. Looking at the remaining schedule, which is just brutal, this is probably the Falcons’ best shot at picking up another win for interim HC Raheem Morris.

I firmly believe that bettors have overreacted to Las Vegas; close call vs. Kansas City last week. Remember that game was at home. That the Raiders have been favored only twice so far is a clear indication that they have overachieved. Factoring in the fact this game is in Atlanta, I’ve got it rated as a toss-up. The Falcons haven’t been a home dog this season. Matt Ryan, who was sacked eight times by the Saints, should have a much better game this week against the #28 rated pass defense. Also, Las Vegas has the 2nd fewest sacks in the league with 11. The Falcons are better than their record while the Raiders (who have been outgained by their opponents) aren’t as good as theirs. 8* Atlanta

8* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): Ok, so the Bengals’ season appears pretty much done. They are 2-7-1 SU and now have to go the rest of the way without starting QB Joe Burrow. They lost the #1 overall draft pick for the remainder of the season last week in Washington. Shell-shocked, they were shutout in the second half and lost 24-9. It should be pointed out that they were winning going into the break. This line has seen the most movement of any on the board this week as Cincinnnati was to be a short home favorite. With Burrow out and backup Brandon Allen to start in his place, the Giants are now a significant road favorite. 

The Giants should never be a road favorite of this size. Against anybody. I don’t care if Burrow is out; I don’t think he’s worth this much to the pointspread. While New York has been a covering machine on the road as of late (8-0 ATS L8), they haven’t been a road favorite of more than four points in almost four years. This is the 1st time since 2012 that a team with a win percentage of .333 or worse is a road favorite of more than a field goal. Since 1990, such teams are just 3-7 STRAIGHT UP! As a reminder, the Giants’ SU record is 3-7 with two of those wins coming by a combined four points against Washington. 

With Burrow, the Bengals were pretty good at keeping games close. Four of their seven losses have come by five points or less. Two of the exceptions came against the Steelers and Ravens. The other was last week, but the good news is that Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS off a loss this year. Allen at least has starting experience in this league and is probably an upgrade over the team’s other backup, Ryan Finley. The Giants have zero wins outside the division this year. They are the ONLY team in the league w/o a 3-game win streak the L4 seasons. Take the points. 8* Cincinnati

8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): So this probably could go one of two ways for the Jaguars. Either they pull an outright upset, or they get blown out. At 1-9 SU (that one win came in Wk 1), the Jags are turning to Mike Glennon at QB this week. It will be Glennon’s first NFL start in more than three years. It’s not an ideal spot to return to the starting role as the Jags will be missing numerous players - on both sides of the ball - due to COVID. But make no mistake about it, this play is a clear fade on Cleveland, who also has COVID issues.

The Browns are a surprising 7-3 SU this year, but they’ve taken advantage of a very weak schedule. Even more damning is the fact they have a -23 point differential. That’s worse than the 3-7 Chargers, who have a -13 point differential. Cleveland has also been fortunate to go 4-0 SU in one-score games this season. Two of those wins have come the L2 weeks, 10-7 over Houston and 22-17 against Philadelphia. The offense has scored 22 points or less in 4 of the last 5 games, scoring 10 or less three times! 

This will also be the Browns’ first time playing on the road in November! Their last three games were all at home. If they close at -7, it will mark the first time they’ve been favored by that many on the road since Bill Belichick was roaming the sidelines in 1995! Baker Mayfield, who I believe to be a below-average NFL QB, is just 7-11-2 ATS as a favorite in his pro career. That includes 1-5 on the road with four outright losses. By the way, the Browns are just 1-4 ATS their L5 games overall. They will be without five players, one of them Myles Garrett, and haven’t been able to practice together much this week. Hold your nose and take the points. 8* Jacksonville

8* LA Chargers (1:00 ET): As I’ve harped on many times before, how a team performs in close games will largely dictate how the overall season goes. For further evidence of that, let’s look at the Chargers and Bills in 2020. Los Angeles has only been outscored by 13 points, but is 3-7 SU due to the fact they’ve lost 7 of 9 one-possession games. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 7-3 SU despite only a +7 point differential because they are 5-1 in one score games. The Chargers are better than their record while the reverse is true for the Bills. This is similar to the Raiders-Falcons game, so once again we’re taking the points. 

The Chargers are actually off a close WIN, though there was no reason for that game to be close. They held on to beat the winless Jets 34-28 after opening up a 31-13 lead in the second half. Holding leads has been a problem all season for the Lightning Bolts as they’ve lost four games in which they held a DD lead. That’s not good. But leading the likes of Kansas City, New Orleans and Tampa Bay by double digits shows this team has got talent. Rookie QB Justin Herbert has played great. The fact the team is a dog this week is appealing in that we’re “safe” were they to lose close again. But I expect them to win this week.

Buffalo suffered its lone close loss of the season two weeks ago when Arizona completed a Hail Mary. They had a week off (bye) to reflect on letting that one get away. Bottom line though is that they were outgained by the Cardinals and gave up 453 yards. The Bills defense has taken a step back this season as it is giving up 6.1 yards per play. The Chargers rank 3rd (in the league!) in total offense. So far, Buffalo is just 2-2 SU when facing top five offenses. The Chargers are 9-4-2 ATS as a road underdog under HC Anthony Lynn and 46-21-5 ATS in the role since 2004. Herbert is 3-0 ATS as a dog of five or more points. This “smells” like an upset. 8* LA Chargers

9* Under Chargers/Bills (1:00 ET): I realize this is a “total” contrarian move with the Chargers having gone Over in each of their last seven games and the Bills doing so in their last three. But it’s a high number. For the Chargers, the team that has gone Over in seven straight, there’s a chance this O/U line could close as the highest for any game so far this season. (It’s been as high as 54.5 at some shops earlier in the week). There’s been only one previous Chargers’ game this year where the O/U line closed north of 50.

There have definitely been some “extenuating” circumstances helping these Chargers’ games go Over of late. For instance, each of the last two weeks they’ve had a punt blocked after their first possession! Both times the punt block led to their opponent scoring a touchdown. Despite that occurrence, it looked liked the game vs. Miami two weeks ago was still going to Under. But LA scored a “garbage time” TD in the final two minutes to send it Over. Last week against the Jets, the Chargers scored a defensive TD. Plus there was a safety at the end of the game.

Buffalo is off its bye week. They probably needed it considering the manner in which they lost to Arizona the prior week (Hail Mary). The Bills are more used to these high totals. But they are not immune to a poor offensive game. Before busting out against the two NFC West teams (Arizona, Seattle) the L2 games, they’d scored 24 or less four straight games. The Under has cashed the last five times the Bills have been off a SU loss. Also, the Chargers are 39-19-1 Under the L59 times they’ve been off a win. 9* Under Chargers/Bills

8* Hawaii (11:00 ET): There are only eight teams in College Football currently 5-0 (straight up) or better. One of them is Nevada. Hats off to the Wolf Pack for this start and they are one of three Mountain West teams without a loss. But they really haven’t played anybody. Three of their five wins - UNLV, Utah State and New Mexico - are over teams in the bottom 10 of my personal power rankings (MWC has some BAD teams). They are also 3-0 in games decided by 7 points or less. This week is going to be their toughest test to date. 

Hawaii is just 2-3 SU thus far as they are coming off a home loss last week to Boise State. They did cover the 13-point spread against the Broncos, but the game wasn’t really as close as the final score indicated. The Warriors trailed 33-9 in the third quarter, only to then get things going with the game out of reach. Still, that was just their second game on the island in 2020. Typically, Hawaii has a pretty strong home field edge (13-6 SU L19 home games) and Nevada certainly isn’t as strong as Boise State.

Nevada is just 6-13 ATS its L19 games when laying 3.5 to 7 points on the road. That includes eight outright losses. I think an outright upset is definitely ‘in play’ Saturday night considering the fact Hawaii won 54-3 in Reno last year! Thus far, the Hawaii offense has been a lot more potent at home than on the road. The defense leads the conference in interceptions. Nevada’s defense has had a really high success rate on third down, which very well may not continue. Take the points here. 8* Hawaii

8* Spike Carlyle (10:10 ET): Spike Carlyle vs. Bill Algeo is a featherweight bout set for three rounds that will kick off the “main card” of Saturday night’s card. These are two aggressive fighters, so it should be an entertaining fight. But as you can tell from the odds, Carlyle is the one you should expect to emerge victorious. 

Carlyle is 9-2 with a 1-1 record in UFC. His UFC debut (back in February) was memorable as he scored a 1st round TKO of Aalon Cruz inside of 90 seconds. Unfortunately, he followed that up by losing a decision to Billy Quarantillo back in May. Carlyle’s only other loss was a split decision back in 2018, prior to his time in the UFC. In between losses, he’d won five straight fights, four of them by stoppage. Three of the four stoppages came in the first round. 

Algeo’s own aggressiveness is likely to play right into the hands of Carlyle. With a 13-5 career record, including 0-1 in the UFC, Alego isn’t a good defensive fighter - at all. He has a habit of tiring out late, which is what cost him the decision against Ricardo Lamas back in August. Algeo hasn’t been stopped since 2014, but this fight very well could end that streak. Expect Carlyle to get his hand raised. 8* Spike Carlyle

10* Gina Mazany (8:25 ET): This women’s flyweight bout scheduled for three rounds. Gina Mazany is 6-4 and takes on Rachel Ostovich, who has a losing record (4-5), something you don’t see very often. An opportunity to fade a fighter of this (poor) caliber at this short of a price doesn’t come around too often. Take advantage. This fight takes place as part of the prelims and is on ESPN+. 

Earlier this week, Ostovich openly spoke of retiring, which is never a good sign. Coming off an eight-month USADA suspension and on a two-fight losing streak, it’s easy to see why Ostovich might be thinking about “hanging it up.” This will be just her 4th fight in the last 36 months, having basically fought just once per year since joining the UFC. There’s just not a lot to like about her (professionally) coming into Saturday.

The key to this fight from Mazany’s perspective is getting it to the ground. She’s pretty relentless with her takedowns. Mazany is dropping down a weight class here, which should do her some good after being overpowered by previous opponents. Ostovich is small, even by flyweight standards, so it’s going to be a welcome matchup for the favorite. A clear fade on the underdog here. 10* Gina Mazany

9* Under TCU/Kansas (8:00 ET): Kansas is not having a good year, to say the least. The Jayhawks are 0-7 SU for HC Les Miles and the best they’ve been able to do at the betting window was a push against West Virginia (on 10/17) as a 21-point underdog. Other than that, they are 0-6 ATS. They are also 6-0-1 Over this season, the push coming back in Game #2 vs. Baylor (a game I cashed Baylor). It’s been five straight Overs since with KU giving up a ton of points in the process. Finally, this week they face an opponent that’s probably NOT going to put up a ton of points. TCU comes in averaging just 24.0 PPG. 

Three times this season, the Horned Frogs have scored 14 points or less in a game. The most recent was two weeks ago at West Virginia, a 24-6 loss. In that game, they were held below 300 total yards. They weren’t that much better the week prior against Texas Tech (343 yards) despite putting up 34 points on Texas Tech. They basically had three big offensive plays in that game. There have been 20+ players lost to season-ending injuries and that doesn’t even include COVID. This is a young team too; they have just nine scholarship seniors on the roster. QB Duggan has just 5 TD passes all season. 

TCU figures to score more than “usual” this week, but what about the Kansas offense? The Jayhawks are last in the Big 12 in scoring offense at just 15.1 PPG. (TCU is second worst, for the record). The most points that Kansas has scored in a game all season is 23 (the opener vs. Coastal Carolina) and they’ve been held to 17 pts or less in five of the last six. Three weeks ago, I had an Under on KU that looked to cash, but they scored the ultimate “garbage time” TD (no time remaining), down 62-3. They won’t give up that many this week (as they’re not facing Oklahoma). The two lowest scoring teams in the Big 12 go Under. 9* Under TCU/Kansas

10* Navy (7:00 ET): This has been a down year so far in Annapolis. Some of that was to be expected after the Midshipmen jumped back up to a 11-2 SU record last season (from 3-11 SU in 2018). Let’s also be honest in saying that COVID-19 has affected their “ranks” more than most teams. There were two horrible, early season losses to BYU (55-3) and Air Force (40-7). But other than those, they’ve played pretty well. They’re 3-2 SU otherwise. This will be their first game in four weeks due to the pandemic as they are off three straight cancellations. One of those three is being made up here w/ a Sat night visit from Memphis.

Memphis has also been affected by cancellations in a season where they too were expected to regress. The Tigers are 5-2 SU, which is still good, but consider this was a 12-2 team a season ago that won the American Conference. Their two losses, both on the road, were against SMU and Cincinnati. Since losing 49-10 at unbeaten Cincinnati, Memphis has escaped with a one-point victory over a bad USF team and beaten FCS Stephen F Austin 56-14. They were supposed to face Navy in between those two opponents, but again COVID-19 struck. The offense has been great so far, but you can’t say the same about the defense. 

Year in and year out, Navy usually has one of the nation’s premier rushing attacks. This year has been a little different as the triple-option wasn’t that effective early in the season. However, over the past four games the Middies have run for 251, 288, 166 and 191 yards. Memphis does not have a good run defense, even though the overall numbers say it isn’t that bad. But those numbers, specifically the rush defense, are skewed by LW’s game vs. a FCS team. UCF and Cincinnati were able to average 220+ RYPG.  The Tigers have not won a road game all season and are just 2-8 ATS L10 games. Navy is 12-4 ATS its L16 conference games. Take the points. 10* Navy

8* Penn State (12:00 ET): Penn State and Michigan are a combined 1-9 ATS this season. Even more surprising is they are a combined 2-8 straight up! Both SU wins belong to Michigan, one of those coming last week in triple overtime against Rutgers. So this game has nowhere near the anticipation it normally does. Penn State is 0-5 SU and ATS, which is the worst start in program history (134 years and counting). As shocking as that is, the Nittany Lions are actually outgaining opponents on the season, which is something Michigan cannot claim. I remain less sold on the Wolverines despite them winning last week. 

Were it not for turnovers, we’d probably be talking about Penn State in a much different light. They outgained three of their first four opponents (Ohio State the exception), two of them by 200+ yards! They were only slightly outgained (19 yards) by Iowa last week in a 41-21 defeat, which was the second game in three weeks the Nittany Lions were -3 in turnover differential. I think it’s fair to say this is among the unluckiest teams in all of College Football. They should have at least a couple wins under their belt. 

The big story with Michigan is that they believe they’ve finally found their starting QB. It’s too little, too late to mean anything for 2020, but last week saw Cade McNamara come on in relief for the ineffective Joe Milton and lead the comeback win against Rutgers. But it’s a pretty sorry state of affairs in Ann Arbor when the faithful are celebrating a 3OT win over a team (Rutgers) that’s 1-25 SU its last 26 Big 10 games. The Wolverines were down double digits in the first half last week. Their secondary is just awful as three of the last four opponents have thrown for 323+ yards. 8* Penn State

10* Inter Milan (9:00 AM ET): You could certainly say that this line is based more on reputation than results, but I still believe Internazionale is a side that could make its way to the top of the Serie A table. This was supposed to be the season where Juventus’ streak of nine straight Serie A league titles was broken. That may very well still end up being the case. But instead of the expected names - like Inter or even Atalanta - being ahead of Juventus, it’s surprising sides AC Milan and Sassuolo. This match will go a long way in determining of Inter (currently 5th) can be a major player. I think they come up big Saturday. 

Sassuolo is one of three sides in Serie A still without a loss. The other two are 1st place AC Milan and Juventus. Sassuolo is 2nd in the table with 18 points as they have five wins and three draws to their credit. Certainly, this was not expected from them. Only once in their history have the Neroverdi had a longer streak without a defeat in the Italian top flight. That was an 11-game run back in 2015. I’m not sold that this will continue. They’ve yet to be matched with any of the fellow top five teams in the table. While they’ve recorded three straight clean sheets, be aware they conceded a total of six times in the final two October matches.

Inter started out the season 2-0 and scored nine goals in the process of doing so. Since then, they’ve underwhelmed. Last week’s 4-2 win against Torino was not only a come from behind effort, but their only win across the last six competitions. They are just 2-3-1 L6 Serie A matches and were beaten twice by Real Madrid in Champions League play. But that should lead to the sense of desperation we’re looking for on Saturday while I assume Sassuolo is quite content with their current placement in the table. Inter typically travels well with their 15 away wins since the start of last season leading all of Serie A. 10* Inter Milan

10* Oregon State (7:30 ET): #15 Oregon heads to Corvallis with an undefeated record, but they were lucky to get by with a 38-35 win over UCLA last weekend. The Ducks got outgained but were the beneficiaries of four Bruins’ turnovers. Their defense definitely proved susceptible to run as it allowed 267 yards on the ground. They are giving up 5.2 yards per carry for the season. In case you didn’t know, Oregon State has one of the top RB’s in the Pac 12, if not the entire country, in Jermar Jefferson. Take the points here.

Jefferson had 196 yards on just 18 carries in last week’s 31-27 win over Cal. That was the Beavers’ first win of the season, but they did cover the 13-point spread the week prior at Washington, losing only 27-21. Jefferson has gone over 100 yards in all three games so far and facing an Oregon defense that is giving up 188 rush yards per game, he should make it 4 for 4 this week. The Ducks have also surrendered a total of 64 points the last two weeks. OSU is 10-3 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season (2-0 this year).

They’ve won outright five times as a dog the last two seasons and they are also 9-3 ATS L12 Pac 12 games, which is second only to Utah in that same stretch. It’s also the 4th best ATS conference record in the country. Oregon is really going to struggle to stop Jefferson and the Oregon State offense here and thus it’s difficult to see them covering a double digit spread on the road. With this being a rivalry game, it’s not like the home team is going to be lacking for motivation. 10* Oregon State

10* UNC Greensboro (7:00 ET): Little Rock and UNC Greensboro were both good teams last year. Little Rock went 21-10 SU and were regular season champs in the Sun Belt. (Conference Tournament was never played). UNC Greensboro won 23 games in 2019-20, finishing third in the always tough SoCon. The Spartans would not have made the NCAA Tournament though as they were upset in the 1st round of the conference tournament by Chattanooga. 

Arkansas Little Rock has already played a game this season while UNC Greensboro has not. Little Rock’s first game here in Louisville was far too close for comfort if you’re a Trojans fan as they could only beat a bad Prairie View A&M team 71-66 despite being 14-point favorites. Had they not enjoyed a massive edge at the free throw line (+25 in attempts, +19 in makes), they very well could have lost the game outright. The Trojans trailed at the half and let Prairie View A&M shoot nearly 50% for the game. That’s not a good sign when getting set to face a much superior team tonight. 

UNC Greensboro actually failed to cover the spread in its final five games last year. That has the Spartans undervalued coming into this 2020-21 season. This was a good defensive team last season as it held opposing teams to just 63.1 PPG. They return 11 players and have won 103 games the last four years (20+ wins every season). "I think this may be the deepest team I've ever coached," said HC Wes Miller. This looks like one of the better mid-majors in the country, so lay the short number. 10* UNC Greensboro

8* North Carolina (3:30 ET): This boils down to the simple fact that North Carolina scores too many points to be catching this many at home. Two weeks ago, the Tar Heels hung 59 points and almost 750 total yards in a wild, come from behind win against underrated Wake Forest. You may recall I successfully faded UNC in that one, but I almost learned the “hard way” at just how explosive the offense is here in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels scored touchdowns on five consecutive drives across the 3rd/4th quarters and almost covered.

The Heels are averaging 43.1 PPG for the season and have gone over 55 in each of the last two games. They have more pass plays of 40+ yards (12) than every other ACC team. They also lead the conference in yards per play (7.7). While they’ve stumbled twice as favorites this season (to Florida State and Virginia), both of those losses were by just three points. This game will mark the first time in 2020 that Mack Brown’s team is an underdog and it comes at home where they are undefeated and averaging 48.5 PPG.

Notre Dame’s defense has been super thus far as it leads the ACC in scoring. But they’ve yet to face an offense like North Carolina’s. Remember that they played Clemson w/o Trevor Lawrence and still gave up 40 points and almost 500 total yards. Other than that, it’s been Duke, USF, Florida State, Louisville, Pitt, Ga Tech and Boston College. North Carolina isn’t just 2-0 ATS as a home dog since HC Mack Brown returned, they are also 3-0 ATS vs. ranked teams. The Fighting Irish have lost outright four of the last five times they’ve been road chalk of six points or less. Take the points. 8* North Carolina

8* Nebraska (1:00 ET): It’s certainly been an interesting season thus far in Lincoln where Nebraska lost LW to Illinois by a score of 41-23. They were 17-pt favorites in that game. The week prior saw them beat Penn State despite buying outgained by over 200 yards. The week before that they outgained Northwestern (who is still unbeaten), but lost by eight points as SEVEN trips to the red zone yielded only 13 points! Scott Frost is very much on the “hot seat” right now and cannot afford another loss to Iowa. Maybe he does lose again here, but I’m banking on the Cornhuskers covering the spread. Take the points. 

Iowa is back in the Top 25 (currently #24) thanks to a three-game SU/ATS win streak where they’ve averaged 41.7 PPG. But they weren’t really as dominant as you might think in last week’s 41-21 win at Penn State. It was only a 362-343 edge in total yardage. The Hawkeyes not only lost to the same N’western team that got Nebraska earlier in the year, but they also fell here in Iowa City to Purdue. No Iowa team has covered four straight regular season games since the 2004 version. This is a lot of points to be laying in a rivalry game.

Turnovers were a big key for both teams last week. Iowa scored 24 points off four Penn State TO’s while Nebraska coughed it up five times in its loss. Frost is being coy about his QB situation, but that works to our benefit as Iowa can’t be sure about what signal caller to prepare for. Nebraska has lost five straight years to Iowa, but the last two under Frost have both been three point games. I think we’re getting an inflated number here due to the respective results from last week. 8* Nebraska

8* Massachusetts (12:00 ET): UMass could very well be the worst team in all of College Football, but this is just a terrible spot for Liberty to be laying such an extraordinary amount of points. The Flames had their undefeated season extinguished last Saturday at NC State in a gut-wrenching 15-14 loss. QB Malik Willis threw three picks and was 13 of 32 passing. But though they lost straight up, Liberty did keep alive its ATS win streak (now at 6 games) as they were four-point underdogs. That 6-0 ATS run is probably why this number is still so high, but I’m taking the points.

Full disclosure - I’m not going to sell you that UMass is somehow “good.” They’re not. But the Minutemen should have enough pride to stay within the number. Having scored just 12 points through three games is not encouraging. But last week they were up against a very good Florida Atlantic defense. The week before they were facing undefeated Marshall. As ugly as the three losses have been this season, the Minutemen are now 6-2 ATS L8 times taking 31+ points.

Having the bubble “burst” on their unbeaten season puts Liberty in a huge letdown spot this week. Furthermore, they face undefeated Coastal Carolina next week, so the ‘look ahead’ factor is in play as well. This is almost certainly the highest spread in Liberty football history. The Flames have just two wins by more than 21 points this year (one vs. FCS) and three by six points or less. One of those three close victories was against a terrible FIU team. I think UMass can hit double digits this week. 8* Massachusetts

10* Utah State (7:00 ET): OK, this is crazy. New Mexico, who has lost 13 straight games dating back to last year, is FAVORED on the ROAD even though Utah State is off its bye. Now Utah State obviously isn’t very good either. The Aggies are 0-4 SU/ATS thus far and haven’t stayed within 19 points of anybody. But I would argue that they’ve faced the four top teams in the Mountain West. If they are to avoid a winless season, this is their best shot. The same can be said of New Mexico, but there’s just no way the Lobos should be favored by this many against anybody right now. 

New Mexico, also 0-4 SU, has come relatively close to victory twice this season. They lost 39-33 out in Hawaii, covering as 13-pt dogs. Then they only lost by 7 (27-20) to Nevada as 17-pt home underdogs. Both games saw the Lobos grab the early lead only to ultimately fall short. But then there was major regression last week in a 28-0 loss to Air Force. In one of the most stunning sequences in the history of football, Air Force fumbled on three consecutive possessions. Every time New Mexico got the ball (in AFA territory), they’d go on to miss a field goal. Remember that the Lobos aren’t playing home games this year due to COVID-19. This will essentially be their 5th road game in 5 weeks. 

As for Utah State, they got an unexpected bye last week when their game vs. Wyoming got called off. Extra prep time is not something any team should need when facing this New Mexico defense, but the Aggies will take it. After giving up 340+ yards passing each of the first three games, the Lobos then surrendered 356 on the ground to Air Force last week. This will mark the 2nd week in a row I fade New Mexico (had Air Force) as it appears bettors are being lulled into thinking the Lobos are going to get that elusive win. But I must reiterate that when a team has not won in 14 months, they probably should not be favored -- on the road no less. Lots of turmoil at Utah State (coaching change, QB dismissal), but New Mexico is still 1-21 SU in its L22 games vs. FBS opponents! 10* Utah State

10* Dallas (4:30 ET): So the Cowboys came through in a major way on Sunday, winning outright at Minnesota, 31-28. In taking them plus the 7.5 points, I specifically cited the return of QB Andy Dalton as a reason for optimism. Dalton was pretty good as he threw three touchdowns including the game winner with 1:37 left. Now I’m wondering if these ‘Boys might actually have a shot at winning the NFC East. Everybody in this horrible division has just three victories, so all that’s happened to this point is irrelevant. “How ‘bout them Cowboys?” 

Of course, this game is equally important to Washington as they could end up being in first place by week’s end. They too are off a win, 20-9 over Cincinnati, and just like Dallas it was just their second in nine games. But when looking at the Football Team’s recent performances, some perspective needs to be added. While it was a close loss (30-27) at Detroit two weeks ago, they were actually down in that game 24-3. It was a similar story in a 20-19 loss to the Giants the week prior. There, they were down 20-3 at halftime. Then Sunday vs. the Bengals they were down at the half again (9-7), only to catch a HUGE break when Cincy QB Joe Burrow went down with a season-ending knee injury. The Bengals didn’t score again after Burrow left the game. 

Now this is a rematch from last month when Washington won 25-3 at home. Again though, some perspective needs to be provided. Dalton got hurt in that game and his replacement Ben DiNucci just wasn’t ready for “primetime.” I think it’s also interesting that the line for that game was a “pick ‘em.” Obviously, based on the final score, oddsmakers were going to adjust the number for this game. But I believe Dallas still needs to be a much bigger favorite. Washington is starting Alex Smith and has trailed by double digits in 8 of its 10 games this season! It’s amazing to say, but I think the Cowboys are underrated right now. 10* Dallas

8* Detroit (12:30 ET): On Sunday, the Lions failed in their attempt to win back to back games for a second time this season. They were shutout, 20-0, by a Carolina defense that had just given up 46 points and 500+ yards the previous week. Oh yeah, the Panthers were also forced to start PJ Walker at QB, a “refugee” from the XFL! As embarrassing as that loss reads, I like Detroit’s chances of bouncing back on Thanksgiving. Relative to the lookahead line, this is a good value getting them as a home dog. 

Meanwhile, Houston is off a win, their first of the season against a team other than Jacksonville. They came from behind to beat New England 27-20 as 2.5-pt home dogs. What’s interesting here is that from a pointspread perspective, the Texans are now in the exact opposite role from last week when they saw the early money go in the Patriots’ direction. That set them up to be a solid value as a home dog. Now they are road favorites for just the second time in 2020. The first was at Jacksonville and there they failed to cover the spread, winning only 27-25 after holding off a late 2-point try. Prior to covering each of the L2 wks, the Texans were just 1-7 ATS this season. 

My own power rankings indicate that the Lions should still be favored here, despite what happened last week. They aren’t nearly as bad as they played last week. One bright spot was the defense, which held Carolina to just 7 pts in the 1st half and 17 total before a 3-yard drive resulted in a late FG. Matt Stafford and the offense are likely to turn things around this week against a Texans defense that is 31st (2nd to last) in yards allowed. The Lions have lost three games this season in which they held a double digit lead, so their record could be significantly better than it is. Houston was still outgained by New England last week and is just 7-14-2 ATS as a favorite the L3 seasons. Take the points. 8* Detroit

8* Under Texans/Lions (12:30 ET): I also like this Texans-Lions game to stay Under the total. While I do believe the Lions’ offense is going to bounce back from last week’s dreadful effort, the bar for “improvement” is low. They averaged just 3.4 yards per play in the shutout loss and gained fewer than 200 yards total. Those numbers will be way up this week vs. a Houston defense that not only ranks 2nd to last in yards allowed, but also just gave up 6.6 yards per play to New England. Still, it won’t be enough for this game to turn into a shootout. 

Houston’s offense has become pretty one-dimensional, failing to go over 100 yards rushing in four of its last five games. They got enough Deshaun Watson last week to overcome the Patriots 27-20, but that was still an Under. Two week ago, the Texans could only score 7 points in Cleveland (admittedly poor weather conditions), but it’s worth noting this offense is averaging just 22.7 PPG for the season. The Lions’ defense was a bright spot last week as it held Carolina to just 7 pts in the 1st half and 17 total before a 3-yard drive resulted in a late FG.

All four Lions’ home games have gone Over so far, but there’s a good chance this one has the highest closing line. They too are averaging just 22.7 PPG this season, the same number as the Texans’ offense. On the other side of the ball, the last two week have seen this Lions’ defense allow just 10 total points in the first half. The Texans’ defense, while still pretty bad, has allowed just 10 and 20 points its last two games. 8* Under Texans/Lions

10* Indiana (8:00 ET): The Hoosiers are 4-0 SU in all-time meetings with Tennessee Tech, though the last one took place back in 2017. It was an 87-59 win here in Bloomington. Tennessee Tech did not have a good season last year as they finished with a 9-22 SU record. What’s interesting is that four of those wins came in their final seven games. They closed on a 6-1 ATS stretch and were 4-0 ATS L4. Despite that, they failed to even qualify for the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. 

I wouldn’t put much stock in that finish to last season for Tennessee Tech. At one point, their record was just 5-19 SU. Will the Golden Eagles be more competitive this season? Ultimately, yes. But not here against a “blue blood” program. Indiana was 20-12 SU last season and while they do lose some depth, LY’s leading scorer Trayce Jackson-Davis does return. The Hoosiers should definitely be back in the NCAA Tournament in March. They received votes in the initial Top 25 and certainly deserved consideration to be in that first poll. 

The last few seasons have seen IU be a really strong home team. They’ve won 30 of the last 40 games here at Assembly Hall and are 15-0 SU when favored by 12.5 or more. Of course, winning straight up is not the concern here for the Hoosiers. Given that they averaged 77.2 PPG at home last season and Tennessee Tech averaged only 58.4 while going 3-14 SU away from home, I can say with full confidence that you should lay the points in this one. The Hoosiers won their first eight non-conf games last year, all by double digits. 10* Indiana

8* Oakland (12:00 ET): This is a lot of points than Xavier is laying here. Leading scorers from last year, Tyrique Jones and Naji Marshall, are both gone. Hampton transfer Ben Stanley’s eligibility waiver was denied, so he won’t be making the expected impact. While there is some returning talent and promising newcomers, I just think that it’s too many points for a Musketeers team predicted to finish in the middle of the Big East to lay in the first game. They are just 2-9 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more.

After a hot 9-1 start to last season, Xavier really sputtered down the stretch. Their season officially ended with a 1st round loss to DePaul in the Big East Tournament. But it was dropping six of their first eight conference games when things really began to take a turn for the worse. The Musketeers did finish with a 19-13 SU record, but they were only 11-20 ATS and the season ended on a three-game losing streak. 

Oakland has a LOT of new faces to open the 2020-21 season. They have eight freshmen on the roster and five players left via the transfer portal. But while it looks like a rebuilding year for HC Greg Kampe, I’m banking on him getting the most out of his team on Wednesday. This will be his 22nd year on the bench. Though off B2B losing seasons, the Golden Grizzlies did close LY by winning six of seven before falling to Green Bay in the Horizon League Tournament. Their three-point shooting should be a lot better in 2020-21. Take the points. 8* Oakland

10* Sevilla (12:55 ET): While it’s all been on the domestic front, I’ve had success taking Sevilla recently. They’ve come through for me in each of their last two La Liga matches, 1-0 against Osasuna and 4-2 over Celta Vigo. While both were a little too “close for comfort,” they were wins and the six points that come w/ them now have Los Nervionenses 7th in the table. Now it's back to the Champions League where they’re level with Chelsea atop Group E (7 pts each). They’ll face FC Krasnodar on Tuesday, a side they already defeated 3-2 in the reverse match at home earlier this month. I see another win forthcoming. 

Sevilla are no strangers to international success. They won the Europa League last year and now are looking to make it through to the knockout stage of Europe’s bigger prize here in 2020-21. Sevilla has made it to the knockout stage in four of its previous five Champions League appearances, the most recent being 2017-18 when they progressed all the way to the quarterfinals. Six points clear of the third place team in Group E and having recently improved their overall form things are looking quite good for Los Nervionenses right now. A win here would make it four straight wins across all competitions. 

I am well aware that it took an incredible comeback for Sevilla to defeat Krasnodar in the reverse match. They came back from two goals down to win 3-2. But one of the two goals they conceded came on a penalty. The odds of them falling behind again are rather slim when you consider Krasnodar has won just once in its last seven competitions with five defeats. This is their first ever Champions League appearance and while they drew w/ Rennes, a 4-0 loss to Chelsea shows just how far a chasm exists between them and the top two in Group E. They’ve disappointed domestically as well, currently sitting ninth in the table. 10* Sevilla

10* Over Rams/Bucs (8:15 ET): So the Rams have gone Under in six straight games. That’s not easy to do in today’s NFL. The defense has been great, allowing 16 points or less in four of those six games. And no longer can you say they’ve just been capitalizing on a slew of poor offensive teams. Last week, they held high-powered Seattle to just 16 points, which was a season-low for the Seahawks. Just to illustrate how impressive last week’s defensive performance was, Seattle has scored at least 28 pts in every other game this season. But LA is about to be tested again here as they face Tom Brady & the Bucs Monday night. 

It was two weeks ago that Tampa Bay got embarrassed here at home in a 38-3 loss to the Saints. That was on the heels of another sub-par effort in primetime, which they won, but only 25-23 as 13-pt favorites against the Giants. So a lot of people were questioning this team as it made the trip to Carolina last week. But Brady and company silenced the doubters with a truly dominant effort. They crushed the Panthers 46-23 and were +357 in yardage. It was the 4th time since the start of October that the Bucs scored at least 38 points in a game. They come in averaging nearly 30 PPG (29.6), sixth most in the league. 

The Rams are 4-0 Under at home this year. But this game is in Tampa Bay. It’ll be their fifth time in the last nine weeks playing in the Eastern Time Zone. Not only does the number of points per game the Rams allow go up on the road (to 23.2), so does their own scoring average (up to 26.4). That’s the key here. The Over is 5-0 the L5 times the Rams have been an underdog w/ four of those games taking place on the road.  The Bucs averaged 7.1 yards per play last week. This may not be the shootout we got from these teams LY (55-40 Bucs win!), but we only need half that number of points to go Over here. 10* Over Rams/Bucs

8* Las Vegas (8:20 ET): I get the revenge angle is in play (Chiefs lost 40-32 to the Raiders back in Week 5), but this spread is too high. The inflated number is almost certainly due to the revenge angle as oddmakers know everyone is going to want to bet the Chiefs in this spot. But you need to consider that Kansas City was “only” a 10-point favorite when they LOST to the Raiders in that first meeting. I can’t say that I’m the biggest LV fan, but they have covered five straight AFC West games.

The Chiefs are coming off a bye, yet another reason they are favored so prohibitively in this rematch. Andy Reid has typically been very good off a bye, but how many times has he been asked to lay this many (points) in a division game that takes place in primetime? Probably not too many. The Chiefs have actually been outgained in two of the last three games and that’s despite facing the likes of Denver, the Jets and Carolina. The defense gave up nearly 500 yards in the first meeting with the Raiders, not to mention five plays of 40+ yards. The offensive line is dealing with multiple injuries as well. 

One of the reasons I waited to “get down” on this game was to monitor the Raiders’ reserve/COVID-19 list. Well, yesterday they activated 7 of the 10 players from it. So I’m confident we’ll be getting them at/near full strength. This is a team that’s won three in a row, including 37-12 last week. The offense has averaged 190.7 yards rushing during the win streak (that’s a lot!) while the defense has shown some real improvement, allowing just 14.7 PPG. They forced FIVE turnovers against Denver last week. 8* Las Vegas

8* Dallas (4:25 ET): This is certainly a contrarian play as the Cowboys are 2-7 SU, not to mention 1-8 ATS. Meanwhile, Minnesota is surging. They’ve won three straight and covered six of their last seven games. But the situation here totally favors the underdog. Dallas is off its bye week. The VIkings are working on a short week after playing on MNF. This is the most points they have had to lay in any game this season and the line has DROPPED, which is telling. The only other time this season that the Vikings were favored by more than a field goal (-4 vs. Atlanta), they lost outright (here at home).

Andy Dalton is also set to return this week for the Cowboys. He alone is not enough to save this lost season, but he is a definite upgrade on what we’ve seen at QB for Dallas the last three weeks. Dalton’s return should take some of the Vikings’ defensive focus off of RB Ezekiel Elliott, which could open the run game, typically a big strength for America’s Team. Minnesota’s defense may have looked good Monday night, but it is still allowing 27.4 PPG for the year and 33.5 PPG at home! I believe Dalton can make a difference this week and am counting on a big game from Elliott as well. 

While everyone is focusing on Minnesota getting back into playoff contention, don’t forget that Dallas isn’t out of it yet either, despite their record. That’s because everybody in the NFC East is struggling this season. Currently, the Cowboys are just one game behind the first place Eagles in the win column. HC Mike McCarthy is 10-2-1 ATS off a bye and 9-4 straight up. Prior to the bye, Dallas played undefeated Pittsburgh quite tough two weeks ago. They lost by only 5 points and led going into the 4Q. They should have covered the previous week at Philadelphia as well. The defense has quietly shown some improvement too. I’m taking the points Sunday.  8* Dallas

8* Under Packers/Colts (4:25 ET): Green Bay barely escaped with a 24-20 win over Jacksonville last week. This is a team that thrived in close situations a season ago, going an extraordinary 9-1 SU in one-score games. That’s how you end up w/ a 13-3 SU regular season despite a rather pedestrian +63 point differential. Though just nine games, this year’s Packers have already outscored opponents by 53 points as they are averaging more than 30 points while turning it over only 5 times (second fewest). So you can definitely make a case that they’ve improved rather than regressed.

But here the Packers are going to be up against perhaps the stingiest defense in the entire NFL. The Colts rank 1st in total defense coming into this game, allowing just 290.4 YPG. They are #2 against the pass, #3 against the run and #4 in scoring. Last week they held the high-powered Titans below 300 total yards and to just 17 points. Don’t forget the last time Green Bay faced a defense ranked near the top of the league. That was Tampa Bay, who held them to just 10 points and 201 total yards. As great as he is, this probably won’t end up as a stellar game for Aaron Rodgers. The Colts defense has allowed the second fewest TD passes (11) and the lowest passer rating in the league.

Indianapolis winning so comfortably against the Titans is owed to a TD that came off a punt block. So they “really” only scored 24 last Thursday. Speaking of special teams touchdowns, the Packers allowed one - a 91-yd punt return - LW vs. Jacksonville. So their defense “really” only gave up 13 points. That’s a week after allowing just 17 (to San Fran) with most of that scoring coming in “garbage time.” The Under is 16-5 in Indy’s last 21 games vs. teams w/ winning records. 8* Under Packers/Colts

10* Under Jets/Chargers (4:05 ET): So let’s try this one again. I had the Under in the Chargers game last week. Unfortunately, they had a punt blocked, which gave Miami an early touchdown. From there, at the end of the game, the Chargers would go on to score a “garbage time” TD (were down 15) to officially push the game Over. It was their sixth straight game to go Over the total. Five of those games have ended up being one-score losses, four of them seeing LA blow a double-digit lead. Fortunately though for this week, the Chargers get to host the winless Jets, who are easily the worst team in the league this season.

Last week marked the first time all season that the Jets didn’t lose a game. That’s because they didn’t play. Last time we saw Adam Gase’s team was two Mondays ago when they almost beat the Patriots. That 30-27 loss was their second-highest scoring game of the season. I wouldn’t go expecting a repeat of that this week. The previous four games all saw the Jets score 10 points or less. They average a league-low 13.4 PPG (nearly 6 PPG fewer than the next worst team) and also last in yards per game (266.0), 34.9 fewer than the next worst team.. They have been held to 17 points or fewer in seven of their nine games this season.

So we can count on the Jets not scoring much here. What about the Chargers? Rookie QB Justin Herbert has played better than most expected, even if the performance hasn’t translated into wins. But I expect a conservative offensive game plan this week from the all-too conservative Anthony Lynn. I think it’s fair to say last week’s game against the Dolphins probably shouldn’t have gone Over. Miami was able to get 13 points by driving a total of 30 yards and also had a 32-yard TD drive. Before the loss to New England, four straight Jets’ games had stayed Under. I just think the Chargers are due for an Under and this is the perfect opponent for it. The Under is 15-7 when LA is favored. 10* Under Jets/Chargers

8* Over Perez/Figueiredo (11:50 ET): This is for the UFC’s Flyweight Title and scheduled for five rounds. It is the main event of the evening. Though the champion Figueiredo is nearly a 3:1 favorite for this title defense, expect Perez to put up a fight and possibly even push this thing into the “championship rounds.” All we need is for the fight to make it to the halfway point of Round 2. Take the Over 1.5 rounds. 

Figueiredo is 19-1 and officially won the title back in July w/ a first round submission win over Joseph Benavidez. The Flyweight Division (125 lbs) has never been a real priority for the UFC, but hopefully Figueiredo is the guy to restore the title to the level it was at in the Demetrious Johnson days. Figueiredo has won four straight fights since suffering his only career loss, the last three wins all coming by stoppage. 

But stopping Perez may prove problematic as he’s only lost one time since 2016 (to Benavidez). Two straight first round finishes gave him this opportunity, but things obviously aren’t going to go that well for him here. Perez is a wrestler, so he’s going to look to get this fight down on the mat. If successful, a finish would surprise me. While an active striker, Perez is also good at “playing defense.” 8* Over Perez/Figueiredo

8* Over Maia/Shevchenko (11:25 ET): Here’s a fight with VERY long odds as the Women’s Flyweight Champion Shevchenko comes in as a massive favorite to retain her title. She obviously should, but I also expect this one to go a little longer than anticipated Saturday night. While she’s had many impressive victories, sometimes when matched with an opponent not willing to engage, things can get downright boring. 

Three of Shevchenko’s last five fights have gone to the scorecards. All these are five round fights remember. We don’t need to get nearly that far for this Over to cash as all we’re looking for is things to make it past the halfway point of Round 3. Shevchenko doesn’t have a first round finish since 2013 and the vast majority of her fights do end up in the judges’ hands. Only three of her L11 fights didn’t make it until the third round. 

Meanwhile, Maia had EIGHT straight fights go to decision before a 1st round submission win over Joanne Calderwood back in August. That landed her the title shot here. She’s been stopped only two times in her entire career and the last one was 2012! So she’ll make Shevchenko work for it here. 8* Over Maia/Shevchenko

10* Alan Jouban (7:40 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Welterweight Division. Jouban has been around for awhile now. “Brahma” made his UFC debut back in 2014 and is now 16-7 in his MMA career. He’s dropped three of four though, the most recent being by split decision to Dwight Grant. But that was all the way back in April of ‘19. Jouban looks to get back on track here against 17-4 Jared Gooden, who is on a three-fight win streak and making his UFC debut. Don’t be fooled by recent form though. Jouban is favored for a reason. 

Actually, this line opened up as a pick ‘em, but has seen Jouban get bet up significantly. That’s telling and something I often look for when betting these UFC undercard bouts. Jouban represents a big step up in competition from previous Gooden opponents, which is why I said not to be fooled by the respective fighters’ recent form. At age 37, this may be Jouban’s last shot in the UFC were he to come up short. I expect him to be quite motivated following a long layoff.

Jouban went on quite the run back in 2016, often showing an incredible ability to come from behind after taking some punishment. At his current age, that’s now a bit of a concern. However, Gooden is someone he should stymie relatively easily. Gooden doesn’t have a consistent approach to winning and the fact he’s lost four times even before coming to the UFC is a concern. 10* Alan Jouban

8* Over Miss State/Georgia (7:30 ET): Mississippi State has gone Under in five straight, which is something we’re certainly not accustomed to seeing from a MIke Leach coached outfit. If you recall, it was a little over a month ago that I went on the record and stated the Bulldogs were an overrated side after beating LSU 44-34 in the season opener. Sure enough, they haven’t covered since (0-5 ATS) though they did snap a four-game SU losing streak by defeating Vanderbilt 24-17 two weeks ago. 

Mississippi State was supposed to play Auburn last week. But that game didn’t take place due to COVID-19, just like Georgia’s scheduled game vs. Missouri was not played. So both teams are off the unexpected bye this week. Last time we saw UGA was two weeks ago when they were ran off the field by Florida, 44-28. It was the Bulldogs’ second loss in three games and their highly touted defense gave up 41+ in both defeats. The other was against Alabama, who beat Miss State 41-0 earlier this year.

That Alabama loss was the only game where MSU faced a larger spread than this. It obviously didn’t go well and stayed Under. But the total for that game was 64. The first five MSU games all had O/U lines of 56 pts or higher. Facing the Georgia defense means this O/U line will obviously be lower, but the ‘Dawgs can potentially send this one Over almost by themselves -- no matter who starts at QB. The underdog will score enough to ensure this is a comfortable Over. Remember they put up over 600 yards on LSU! 8* Over Miss State/Georgia

9* South Carolina (7:30 ET): We’re getting a GREAT value on South Carolina here after their decision to fire Will Muschamp. Obviously such a move indicates the team is struggling, which they most certainly are, but it’s definitely noteworthy that my own power rankings have this game w/ Missouri rated as a tossup. I don’t think that the Tigers are good enough to be favored by this many on the road against anybody and you can look for the Gamecocks to play inspired ball following the coaching change. Take the points.

These two SEC East rivals have combined to play 12 games this season. Of those 12, only one time has either been favored and it was actually South Carolina (when they crushed Vanderbilt 41-7). So Missouri’s first time being favored in 2020 comes on the road, after a three-week hiatus (COVID) and against a team playing with nothing to lose. Mizzou has lost three games by 19 or more this season, the most recent coming at Florida (41-17) on Halloween. They haven’t played since then and rust could very well be a factor this week. 

South Carolina upset Auburn here in Columbia back on October 17th. That was their last win under Muschamp. After that it’s been three ugly losses with the defense getting torched every time. But Missouri has scored 20 points or less in four of its five games. Again, hardly an ideal candidate to be laying points on the road. South Carolina was one of the few SEC teams to play last week and did score 42 against Ole Miss w/ RB Kevin Harris going for 243 yards and five touchdowns. Anything close to that  will mean an easy cover here and possible outright upset. Missouri has given up 35 or more points in four of its five games. 9* South Carolina

8* Under Palatnikov/Cosce (6:40 ET): This is the one total on the undercard that I’m focused on. It’s the opener of the entire card, scheduled for three rounds, between a pair of welterweights making their respective UFC debuts. Don’t expect this fight to last very long though. I’m taking the Under 1.5 rounds. 

Cosce came through Dana White’s Contenders Series. He is 7-0 and brings in some serious knockout potential. All seven of his career victories have come via 1st round finish! The longest any of those seven fights went was 4:34. Four of his last five have been over within two minutes! So history is definitely on our side with this bet. Coming in as a big favorite, Cosce is likely to put this one to bed very early. 

Palatnikov is 5-2 and neither of his last two fights made it to Round 2. Again, just to be clear, this bet cashes as long as things end by the midway point of Round 2. Whether it's Cosce “doing what he does” or Palatnikov landing a “lucky punch,” this has all the makings of a very quick opener. Note Palatnikov used to fight at middleweight, so he could be stronger than expected. 8* Under Palatnikov/Cosce

8* Under Va Tech/Pitt (4:00 ET): Pittsburgh is a team we haven’t heard much from lately. That’s because they’ve played just one game in the last three weeks. It was a win, 41-17 over Florida State, which snapped a 4-game SU/ATS losing streak. A streak that did continue w/ that blowout win over the Seminoles was the Panthers going Over the total, now at five straight. This week they are up against a Va Tech team that’s no stranger to high-scoring games this season. But I think the number is too high. 

There was some concern over whether or not this game would even be played due to COVID-19. Then came a Pennsylvania state edict that seemed like it would require all players to wear masks during the game. That was later clarified (on Friday) and no longer will face coverings be required. What we hope is required is some defense. That shouldn’t be a problem w/ Pitt, whose defense leads the country with 38 sacks this season. The Panthers allow less than 300 total YPG and only 79 YPG on the ground (just 2.2 YPC!).

That stout run defense will come in handy against Va Tech RB Khalil Herbert, who has been banged up recently. The Hokies are coming off B2B close losses to Miami and Liberty, two home games that they probably should have won. On the bright side, they did just hold a very potent Miami offense to 25 points. The Hurricanes had only 13 on the board late in the 3Q. Pitt’s offense, even w/ QB Pickett back, is nowhere near as good as Miami’s. Interestingly enough, Va Tech’s defense is #2 in the country (behind Pitt) in sacks. I think that the respective defensive fronts will rule this game. 8* Under Va Tech/Pitt

10* Wisconsin (3:30 ET): Right now there is a lot of value on the 10th ranked Wisconsin. I’ve got them 4th in my own power rankings. The reason for the value is they’ve only played two games, so the pollsters are going to wait to move them up the rankings. But the Badgers have made the most of the two opportunities they’ve gotten, first destroying Illinois 45-7 and then dealing Michigan its worst home loss in more than three-quarters of a century, 49-11 last week. This team is a legit CFP contender. 

I refuse to say the same about Northwestern, even though they are 4-0 SU and ranked #19 in the country. While my own power ratings say Wisconsin is underrated right now, they have the exact opposite read on Pat Fitzgerald’s Wildcats. The reason being N’western has three one-score wins, two of which saw them get outgained. They have relied heavily on a defense that is 11th overall in yards allowed, though two weeks ago that unit was very much “bend, but don’t break” as it allowed Nebraska to get into the red zone SEVEN different times, only to give up 13 points. I look for the Wisconsin offense to make them pay this week. 

The Badgers can also play defense. They held Illinois and Michigan to an average of 218.5 YPG. Though only two games, that average would place Paul Chryst’s team #1 in the country in total defense. This is only the 6th time since 2018 that a battle of ranked teams has seen the visitors favored by a TD or more. The previous five instances have seen the road fave go a perfect 5-0 ATS. Also, favorites have gone 14-5-1 ATS in all Top 25 matchups this season. I cashed a road favorite last week in the Big 10 (Indiana) and plan on doing the same here. 10* Wisconsin

8* Over Georgia St/South Alabama (3:30 ET): South Alabama has gone Under in each of its last five games, but I think a matchup against Georgia State will help buck that particular trend. While its definitely true that Georgia State struggled to move the ball in losses against two of the Sun Belt’s heavyweights, Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State, their offene has performed VERY well otherwise. Those “other” four games have seen the Panthers score at least 31 points every time out, three times scoring 49 or more.

  In fact, Georgia State started out the year by going Over in each of its first four games. I went Under when they faced Coastal Carolina and despite the Panthers giving up 51 points in that game, it was a win for me and my clients as Georgia State “forgot to score” (got shutout). That loss isn’t really indicative of where the Panthers “are at,” although they have given up 34 or more points five times this season including 50 or more on two different occasions. You can usually count on it being a high-scoring game when Georgia State is involved.

South Alabama’s season began with a very rare road win over Southern Miss (32-21). Since then they are just 2-5 with the two wins coming against La Monroe and Texas State, both of whom are awful. In four of their five losses, the Jaguars have been held to 17 points or less. But that shouldn’t be the case here facing the suspect Georgia State defense. They are due for an Over and it should come here against a team that has twice gone Over a total of 70.0 this season!  8* Over Georgia State/South Alabama

8* Rice (2:00 ET): Two teams that have felt the brunt of COVID-19 cancellations are Rice and North Texas. November is rapidly coming to a close and these two C-USA rivals have combined to play just seven games. Rice has only played twice! The Owls are 1-1 w/ a 30-6 win (over Southern Miss) the last time they took the field. But that win came all the way back on Halloween. North Texas is 2-3 SU, but hasn’t played since October 17th (!) when they drubbed Middle Tennessee 52-35 as a 3.5-point road dog. 

I had North Texas in that drubbing of Middle Tennessee. But as I said in the writeup, Middle Tennessee was as bad as any team in the country at that point of the season and did not deserve to be favored against anybody. The Southern Miss team that Rice beat for its only win is also very bad, but don’t tell that to North Texas, who lost to the Golden Eagles 41-31 back on October 3rd. The Mean Green defense has given up 31 or more points to every opponent this season, including FCS Houston Baptist. They are allowing 44.2 PPG overall, a frightening number for a team that comes in favored this week. 

Don’t expect all the off time to help North Texas here as they are 0-6 both straight up and against the spread after an off-week. With more than a month having elapsed between games, the Mean Green will be rusty here. Rice, who is 9-4 ATS its L13 road games, has put up 64 points in two games and its loss came in OT after a missed FG that was a “quadruple doink.” Their defense did not allow Southern Miss in the red zone the entire game. It was a 20-14 Owls’ win in LY’s meeting and I’ll grab the points here. 8* Rice

8* Sevilla (12:30 ET): To say Sevilla is off to a disappointing La Liga start would be putting it mildly. Last year’s Europa League Champions have collected just 10 points from their seven league fixtures thus far, which has them sitting all the way down in 12th place in the table. That’s just not an acceptable position for a side that was once again expected to finish in the top four. But right before the International Break, Los Nervionenses did snap a three-game losing streak (on the domestic side) w/ a 1-0 win over Osasuna. 

I had Sevilla in that 1-0 win, which was obviously much needed on their end. What makes the La Liga performance all the more perplexing is the fact they’ve performed quite well in the Champions League, getting seven points from three matches, which has them level with Chelsea atop Group E. The price has come way down this week vs. Celta de Vigo, which is something I just don’t understand despite the middling form of the (still) favored hosts. Celta de Vigo is one of La Liga’s weakest sides. 

It wasn’t that long ago when I faded Celta de Vigo against another top La Liga side whose prior form had been disappointing. That would be Atletico Madrid, who dealt Celta Viga a 2-0 loss back on October 17th. Since that time, Celta Vigo has gone winless in three subsequent matches w/ two draws and a 4-1 loss to Real Sociedad. This side has just one win in nine La Liga fixtures and their seven points has them in danger of relegation. With the worst goal differential in all of La Liga (-9), I see another loss here. 8* Sevilla

10* Over Wolfsburg/Schalke 04 (9:30 AM ET): Wolfsburg still has yet to lose a match this Bundesliga campaign. The only other side in the top German flight than can claim that is Bayer Leverkusen, who currently sits 4th in the table. Wolfsburg is 6th due to drawing in five of their seven matches. Other than that head-scratching percentage of draws, the other thing you’ll notice about Wolfsburg’s results is how low-scoring they’ve been. That will end Saturday when they face one of the bottom teams in the table, Schalke 04. 

Schalke currently finds itself in the relegation zone, sitting 17th (out of 18) with just three points. They’re still winless in the Bundesliga this season, but have actually shown some recent improvement with three draws in the last four domestic matches. The most recent came against fellow relegation zone occupant Mainz, a 2-2 affair that saw Schalke twice rally back from a one-goal deficit. However, they could not have earned said draw w/o being gifted an own goal in the 82nd minute. 

Schalke is dead last in the Bundesliga with a -17 goal differential, which is owed to the fact they’ve conceded more times than anybody (22 goals allowed). This is a side that’s won just one time in its last 24 fixtures and it was against a team of amateurs (literally) earlier this month. This should be an easy three points for Wolfsburg, but obviously the price is too high to play things that way. So instead I’ll call for a “coming out party” offensively as they could easily send this one Over themselves. 10* Over Wolfsburg/Schalke 04

10* Air Force (9:30 ET): I disagree with the midweek line move here. New Mexico is not only 0-3 SU this season, they have lost 12 in a row going back to LY! The vast majority of those 12 straight losses have been by double digits. While they’ve been close each of the L2 weeks, losing by only 6 to Hawaii and by 7 to Nevada, the Lobos still have a LONG way to go to get back to respectability. The fact that QB Tevaka Tuioti missed last week’s game with a concussion and is questionable to return here does them no favors. This is also UNM’s third “true” road game in four weeks and last week’s “home game” was played in Vegas.

Air Force started its season before every other Mountain West team. Back on October 3rd, they opened the season with a 40-7 beatdown of Navy (as 6.5-pt underdogs). But, like New Mexico, the Flyboys are winless in MWC play. They lost a low-scoring game (17-6) at San Jose State and then a high-scoring game (49-30) here in Colorado Springs to Boise State. But while New Mexico is playing for a 4th consecutive week, the AFA has been off the past two weekends. Scheduled games against Army and Wyoming were cancelled due to COVID-19.

Prior to the B2B losses to open conference play, Air Force was actually on a 9-game win streak! That’s obviously a far cry from the form flashed by New Mexico over the last year. This is the game where the Falcons get their running game on track. New Mexico has yet to face an opponent that ran the ball more than 28 times. Air Force could double that number of attempts here. They lead the country in rush offense (330 YPG), averaging 5.9 yards per carry. The L2 meetings have seen the AFA offense gain 1,163 total yards against the Lobos defense. 10* Air Force

8* Syracuse (7:00 ET): Louisville isn’t as bad as its 2-6 (SU) record as they’ve outgained their opponent in three of the last four losses. The only one of those four losses where the Cardinals DIDN’T have the edge in total yards was against Notre Dame and that ended up being only a five-point loss (12-7!) in South Bend. Considering that they are finding ways to lose games they should probably win, the Cardinals probably shouldn’t be this large of a favorite against anybody. They simply turn the ball over too much (-12 TO margin) to justify this kind of price range.

Syracuse probably isn’t much better than its 1-7 SU record, but they did stay close two weeks ago against Boston College, losing only 16-13. They’ve stayed within tonight’s number against most of their opponents, save for the toughest matchups like Clemson and North Carolina. Injuries and a tough schedule have done the ‘Cuse no favors thus far, but they are coming off a bye here certainly helps. I believe they’ll be able to move the ball and score on a Louisville defense that’s giving up nearly 30 points and 400 yards per game. Freshman QB JaCobian Morgan looked decent enough in his first career start (vs. BC) and should perform better here w/ the added prep time.

After rocketing up to an 8-5 SU record last season, Louisville was a pretty obvious candidate for regression in 2020. They were just 2-10 SU two years ago and everything that went right for them LY has gone wrong this season. As alluded to above, turnover margin has been one of the biggest reasons for the decline. But they can’t fix the fact that RB Javian Hawkins has opted out to concentrate on the 2021 NFL Draft. WR Tutu Atwell, who missed the 31-17 loss to Virginia last week, may also miss tonight’s game. I just don’t see the justification for the spread being this large. L’ville is just 6-14-1 ATS its L21 ACC games. 8* Syracuse

8* Tulane (7:30 ET): Tulsa (#25) is off to a 4-1 SU start and ranked for the first time since 2010. That’s quite the cause for celebration. This is a program that won a combined NINE games the last three seasons. I’ve cashed them two different times this season. The first was plus the points against Oklahoma State in the season opener. That’s their only SU loss. The other was a 42-13 beatdown of USF. But there are two factors that have me looking to fade the Golden Hurricane this week: 1. They’ve been living quite dangerously (falling behind early) and 2. This is their shortest turnaround between games this season.

This is the second straight week Tulane faces the #25 ranked team in the country. But this time they will have to hit the road as underdogs. Still, the way the Green Wave dismantled Army last week has me looking to take the points here. The 38-12 win as 3.5-pt chalk on Saturday was Tulane’s third straight win (all by 17+ points) and fifth straight cover. Normally, I might look to fade a team on such a hot streak, but it certainly looks as if the visitors aren’t getting the proper respect this week. 

Three of Tulsa’s four wins this year have seen them rally back from 14+ point deficits. They trailed UCF by 18, East Carolina by 14 (miracle win) and then SMU by 21 (here at home) on Saturday. It’s hard to pull the proverbial “rabbit out of the hat” every week. Furthermore, the Golden Hurricane had played just twice in 41 days prior to the upset of SMU. Now they’ve got just five days in between games. The only other time this season they had to play on “normal” or short rest was the East Carolina game where they were lucky to win 34-30 and never came close to covering the 17-point spot. Because of its ranking, Tulsa may very well be overconfident entering this week. That’s a mistake against a Tulane team who led by double digits in two of its four losses. A third loss came in overtime. Taking the points is the way to go here in what should be a good game. 8* Tulane

10* Ball State (7:00 ET): A case could be made that Northern Illinois actually outplayed Buffalo in a season opening 49-30 loss. After all, they outgained the Bulls 397-357. But they were undone by a -5 turnover margin in that game. Unfortunately, there was no “explaining away” the terrible 40-10 loss the Huskies suffered last week to Central Michigan. That game saw them get held to just 224 total yards. Making the 0-2 SU/ATS start even worse is the fact both losses were in DeKalb. Now NIU is set to hit the road for the 1st time in 2020. 

Ball State is also 0-2 ATS, but they did win SU last week, defeating Eastern Michigan 38-31 in come from behind fashion. That was a stark contrast to the previous week’s result, also a 38-31 final, where they blew a 1st half lead and fell to Miami. Unlike Northern Illinois, the Cardinals have had the total yardage edge in both of their games this season. They rolled up well over 500 yards last week. They have a significant offensive edge in this matchup and I just don’t see how the underdog keeps up. 

Northern Illinois used to be the standard-bearer in the MAC. But the Huskies have fallen on hard times and should now be considered one of the weaker teams in the entire country. Meanwhile, Ball State is a program on the rise under HC Mike Neu and is going to be one of the better MAC teams this season. Something that’s even more damning for Northern Illinois’ 0-2 start is that their defense leads the country in 3rd down conversion rate, which is highly unlikely to continue. Ball State’s offense will make them pay on third down and move the ball w/ ease, thus dropping NIU to 3-14-1 ATS off a DD loss at home. 10* Ball State

10* Under Buffalo/Bowling Green (7:00 ET): Bowling Green is looking like it might be the worst team in the country this season. If not them, it’s Akron (another team from the MAC), who has lost 19 in a row. Last week saw the Falcons get drubbed 62-24 by Kent State. They are now 0-2 SU/ATS as they lost their season opener 38-3 to Toledo. This matchup with 2-0 Buffalo, perhaps the MAC’s best team, is less than ideal. The Bulls have covered 9 of their last 10 games overall (beat Miami 42-10 last week) and have covered six straight seasons against Bowling Green. Despite the huge spread here, I almost laid the points. But that doesn’t seem prudent. Instead it’s a play on the total that needs to be made.

Bowling Green has given up 100 points in two games. But as bad as the defense has been, the offense might be worse. They ranked 128th in scoring last season (16.0 PPG) as well as 124th in yards per play and 120th in yards per game. There was some hope w/ Boston College transfer Matt MacDonald coming in to play QB, but he’s been HORRIBLE, completing only 14 of his 50 pass attempts (not a misprint!). The Falcons just aren’t going to score many points Tuesday against a decent Buffalo defense.

That brings us to the Buffalo offense. As mentioned above, it was a very impressive 42-10 win over Miami last week. That followed a 49-point effort in the opener at Northern Illinois, but they had a lot of short TD drives in that game because of five NIU turnovers. Even if Buffalo puts up 40 again this week (very possible), I still see this game going Under. The last two years have seen Buffalo beat BG by scores of 49-7 and 44-14. It’s probably going to be a similar score tonight, which would work just fine. Bowling Green is 14-5 Under L19 games. 10* Under Buffalo/Bowling Green

10* Chicago (8:15 ET): The look ahead line for this game was Bears -2. The number quickly jumped the fence and it’s now the Vikings laying a field goal on the road. I have to say that I completely disagree with the move as I’ve still got Chicago rated as the better team. So it should be them laying, not getting, the standard three. Coming off back to back wins, Minnesota is probably feeling pretty good about its chances of getting back in the playoff mix. Especially w/ three favorable home games on deck. But they should NOT be the favorites Monday night and I’m taking the points. 

The Vikings are looking to make it a 3-0 NFC North to start November. After their bye week, they upset the Packers (in Green Bay) 28-22 as six-point dogs. Then last week was a 34-20 home win over Detroit. RB Dalvin Cook has been the driving force. While both wins were impressive, I believe we’re putting too much stock into them. The Vikes were the beneficiaries of a +3 turnover margin against the Lions. Also, have we forgotten about Kirk Cousins’ woes in primetime? I haven’t. Cousins is 0-9 SU on MNF, the most consecutive defeats for a starting QB EVER on Monday nights. 

The much maligned Bears’ offense desperately needs a breakout game and it very likely could come here against a Vikings’ defense that has already given up 30+ pts three times. Under HC Matt Nagy, Chicago has had its own success in NFC North games, going 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS. Nagy is 4-0 (SU) vs. the Vikings. Let’s not forget about the Bears’ defense, which is giving up just 19.3 PPG at home this season. Overall, it ranks as a Top 10 unit in both scoring and yards allowed. Bank on them stacking the box vs. Cook, thus forcing Cousins to make plays, which is something he never does under the bright lights. 10* Chicago

9* Over Seahawks/Rams (4:25 ET): I have been skeptical of the Seahawks all season, mainly because their woeful pass defense remains a huge liability. It cost them last week as they gave up 44 points and 415 yards passing to Josh Allen and the Bills. While that was only their second loss of the season, Seattle is getting outgained on the year (despite Russell Wilson) and has now given up more passing yardage in eight games than the famed “Legion of Boom” defense did the entire 2013 season! The Over is 6-2 in Seahawks games this season with the fewest total number of points scored being 53. 

The Rams, who are off their bye, are not the opponent Seattle wants to see right now. Since Sean McVay took over, Los Angeles has averaged more than 30 PPG against this Seahawks’ defense, which has never been worse than it is right now. Keep in mind that Jamal Adams returned last week and Seattle still got torched. LA lost two weeks ago to Miami 28-17 (which was my 10* NFL Game of the Year -- on Miami!), but actually outgained the Dolphins more than 3:1 in the game (471-145). I fully expect that with an extra week of preparation the Rams offense is going to put up a big number here against a defense that is last in yards allowed and 30th in scoring.

The Seahawks’ defense is currently on pace to allow the most passing yards EVER in a NFL season. The Rams’ Jared Goff has thrown for at least 290 yards in the last four meetings. Adams might be back, but he was terrible last week, and both Seattle corners are now banged up. But Seattle still has a chance here because of Russell Wilson, who leads an offense that is averaging 34.3 PPG. The Rams have gone Under in five straight, but those games were against the Giants, Washington, San Francisco, Chicago and Miami. The Seahawks are a much different opponent with Wilson having seven touchdown passes of 20+ yards this season. 9* Over Seahawks/Rams

8* San Francisco (4:25 ET): This spread has clearly been influenced by the results of last week. A banged up 49ers team didn’t look particularly good in a 34-17 Thursday night loss to the Packers. Meanwhile, the Saints went to Tampa Bay and destroyed the Buccaneers 38-3. An adjustment had to be made by the oddsmakers, but the number just seems too high now and the play is to take the points. After such a big win, this feels like it could be a bit of a “letdown” spot for the Saints. Meanwhile, the 49ers’ season is somewhat on the brink and I think we’ll see a better effort from them here compared to last week. 

The 49ers team you’ll see here hardly resembles the one that defeated the Saints in a 48-46 thriller last season. So many players are injured, the most notable being QB Jimmy Garoppolo and TE George Kittle. After being favored in each of their first five contests, this game will mark the 5th straight time that SF is getting points. They are 9-3 ATS on the road since the start of last season (3rd best) including 6-1 ATS as a dog (2nd best win percentage). You’d have to go back a long way to find the last time the Niners were getting double digits. Even with the injuries, my power rankings say this spread shouldn’t be more than a TD. 

While it’s pretty likely that the 49ers are about to suffer their first three-game losing streak since late in 2018, look for them to keep it closer than expected Sunday. Prior to clobbering the Bucs, New Orleans’ previous four wins were all by six points or fewer. Three of those were by a field goal and two in overtime. So as hot as they may seem, New Orleans is not necessarily dominating most opponents (save for last week). The Saints entered Week 9 at 5-2, but their point differential was just +9. Yeah, we underrated them last week, but there’s been an overcorrection in the marketplace here. 8* San Francisco

10* Arizona (4:05 ET): There were plenty of misleading results on the NFL scoreboard last week. Give credit to Buffalo for beating Seattle 44-34, but a) the Seahawks pass defense continues to be absolutely atrocious and b) it was a +4 turnover margin. I remain unconvinced that the Bills are as good as their 7-2 SU record. As for Arizona, they are a team I remain high on despite a 34-31 home loss to Miami last week. The Cardinals outgained the Dolphins by over 100 yards and would have won if not for a giving up an early defensive touchdown. Because of last week’s results, we are getting a tremendous value on the home team here. 

Despite losing last week, Arizona still has the best point differential (+53) in the NFC. They are an ascendent team that I believe will easily make the playoffs. Two weeks ago, they were a 10* ULTIMATE POWER release here at home against Seattle and they won 37-34 in overtime. While they’ve been anything but reliable as a favorite (three outright losses this year), this is a really short number to lay to a Bills team whose point differential is only +9 for the year. The respective records of these teams are quite misleading. My own power rankings say Arizona should be closer to a touchdown favorite here!

Over the last four weeks, only three players in the league have 225+ rushing yards with at least three rushing touchdowns. Tennessee’s Derrick Henry and Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook, two names you’d expect, are among the triumvirate. The third player is Arizona QB Kyler Murray! Last week saw Murray go over 100 yards for the first time in his young career. He’s averaging 7.1 YPC and going against a Bills defense that allows 4.6 YPC. The Cardinals have a much better pass defense than the Seahawks (have allowed 280+ yds passing just one time), so Bills QB Josh Allen is not going to repeat his 400+ yd performance from last week. I really like this play. 10* Arizona

9* Under Chargers/Dolphins (4:05 ET): Miami has turned into a real success story as they’ve gotten to 5-3 SU by winning four straight games. They’re 4-0 ATS as well during the win streak. But as much as I want to pull for them, they have been outgained by 456 yards since Tua Tagovailoa became the starting QB. They’ll have a special place in my heart due to being my 10* NFL Game of the Year two weeks ago and they beat the Rams 28-17. But the truth is that was one of the most misleading final scores of the year. The Dolphins were actually outgained by more than a 3:1 margin (471-145) in that contest!

Tua looked a lot better last week in leading a 34-31 upset over Arizona (on the road). But the ‘Fins were still outgained in that game by over 100 yards. The big story for Miami these last two weeks has been non-offensive touchdowns as they have THREE of them, two on defense and one punt return. Against the Rams, they also started a drive inside the five-yard line. So Tua really hasn’t moved the ball as well as you might think and the fact the team is averaging 31 PPG w/ him as the starter is a total mirage. On the flip side, I really like the Dolphins defense, which is allowing just 20.1 PPG this season, 4th fewest in the league. 

While Miami is on the rise, the Chargers can’t seem to get out of their own way. Last week was another close loss as all six defeats this year have been by seven points or less. That’s the most one-score losses in the first eight games of a season - ever! I’d love to say this is where they turn things around, but my power rankings actually say the value is on Miami here. But with the Dolphins’ recent scoring being a bit of a mirage and LA being 5-0 Over its L5 games, my call is that this ends up being a surprisingly low-scoring affair. 11 of the last 12 meetings between these teams have gone Under! 9* Under Chargers/Dolphins

8* Under Williams/Alhassan (8:55 ET): The co-main event of this Saturday’s Fight Night card is a welterweight battle between Khaos Williams (10-1) and Abdul Razak Alhassan (10-2). It shouldn't take long for it to be over. I don’t care who wins, just that we get a quick finish. This one will be over before we hit the halfway mark of Round 2. The matchup is pretty reminiscent of a previous Under play I had last month with Alan Baudot vs. Tom Aspinall. Take the Under 1.5 rounds here. 

Williams’ UFC debut was as short as it was spectacular. He won w/ a vicious 27 second knockout of Alex Morno, a 10-fight UFC vet. That’s nothing new for “Khaos” as four of his seven straight victories have ended in Round 1. But he’s an underdog here for a reason and that’s the book on Williams is he can be lured into a brawl and put away. That’s probably what’s going to happen here as he faces a much tougher opponent in Alhassan. 

Alhassan is off a decision loss to Mounir Lazzez back in July. But prior to that, 10 of his first 11 fights ended in Round 1. Ironically, the one exception was his only other loss, which came by decision. So we’ve got a fighter here w/ 10 career victories that have all come via first round stoppage. That’s pretty remarkable. History probably repeats itself in that regard here, though I’ll also take Williams replicating what he did last time out. Either way, this fight is not lasting long. 8* Under Williams/Alhassan

8* Miranda Granger (6:20 ET): Oddsmakers initially saw this as an even fight, but sharp money has come in on Granger and I’m inclined to agree with it. This is a women’s strawweight bout, scheduled for three rounds, set to take part during the prelims. Granger has not fought in 2020 after suffering the first defeat of her career late last year. I’m banking on her being ready to roll Saturday night. 

Granger was 7-0 when she faced Amanda Lemos last December. But things didn't go well there as she was choked out in Round 1. Due to a health issue (blood clots in both lungs), she’s been out ever since. But signs point to a successful return on Saturday. Though she does not possess the reach advantage in this matchup with Ashley Yoder, Granger is the superior boxer. Yoder has never really demonstrated any kind of successful striking ability.

In fact, Yoder is just 2-5 in the UFC, leaving her w/ a 7-6 career mark. Her status in the promotion is very much on the line here. Incredibly, all seven of her UFC fights have gone to a decision. Three were split decisions and she lost two of those. Yoder has now lost twice in a row, including a unanimous decision to Livina Souza back in August. While Yoder prefers to spend most of her time fighting on the mat, it’s not as if she’s a world-class grappler. She averages just 1.14 takedowns per 15 minutes and has only a 36% success rate with takedown attempts. Just not much to like there. 8* Miranda Granger

9* Over Northwestern/Purdue (7:30 ET): I’m still very unhappy how last week’s Nebraska-Northwestern game turned out. I had Nebraska plus the points and judging by the fact they outgained N’western 442-317, you would have thought they’d at least covered. Incredibly, the Cornhuskers were in the red zone SEVEN times and came away with just 13 points. They missed a field goal and had two costly interceptions before turning it over on downs (inside the 15) on the drive that decided the game. Nine times in the game Nebraska crossed midfield. So let’s be careful before anointing Northwestern’s defense as anything special, okay? 

Unlike Nebraska, Purdue should be able to cash in its scoring chances as it hosts the Wildcats this week. The Boilermakers have scored 24 and 31 points in their two games thus far, both of them wins. Last week they were set to face Wisconsin, but COVID 19 cancelled that matchup. So with an extra week to prepare for the Northwestern defense, I think Purdue’s offense will do well Saturday night. I’d like the chances even more if WR Rondale Moore and RB King Doerue (both gametime decisions) suited up for the 1st time this season. But consider that a luxury if one or both do. Over is the play here regardless. 

In Moore’s absence, David Bell has put up big numbers with 22 catches for 234 yards. (Remember, that’s just two games). These teams have combined to go 5-0 Under this season, but that trend is about to end. Northwestern could get its starting RB (Isaiah Bowser) back from an injury, again something that should be considered a luxury if he does suit up. The Wildcats did put up 43 points in the season opener (vs. Maryland) so they are more than capable of a big offensive game themselves. Over is 7-3-1 in N’western’s L11 games as a road favorite while it’s also 15-5 in Purdue’s L20 as a home dog. 9* Over Northwestern/Purdue

10* Baylor (4:00 ET): For much of this year, my power rankings have indicated that Baylor has been underrated (by the oddsmakers) while Texas Tech is being overrated. Twice I’ve cashed Baylor in 2020. The first time was the opener (against Kansas), a game which they won 47-14. The second was last week in a 38-31 road loss to Iowa State where they were taking double digits. That was the Bears’ 4th consecutive defeat (Kansas is their only win), but this line “jumping the fence” seems like a strong indicator that losing streak is about to come to an end. 

Texas Tech has spurned me on two different occasions this season - against Texas (covered as 17-pt home dogs) and against West Virginia (covered as 2.5-pt underdogs). While the call on Texas was certainly bad (game went to OT), I still stand by the play on WVU, who outgained the Red Raiders by around 100 total yards. By that same standard, the Red Raiders probably feel like they got “the short end of the stick” last week vs. TCU where total yardage was pretty close to even, but they lost by 18 thanks to giving up a long TD run (by the TCU QB) late in the game (that cost them the cover). 

Texas Tech has just two wins this year, the one vs West Virginia and one vs. FCS Houston Baptist, which was the season opener and saw them allow 600 total yards. Those two wins were by a total of nine points. The win over Houston Baptist required they stop a late 2-pt try (won 35-33) and a late defensive TD was the difference in the 34-27 win over WVU. The Red Raiders’ defense is giving up 107 YPG more than Baylor’s is. The Bears’ four losses have all been by 11 points or less and to teams better than Texas Tech. They led by 2 TD’s LW in Ames and have covered 8 of their last 12 road games. 10* Baylor

8* Over UTEP/UTSA (3:00 ET): The big surprise is that both of these teams come into Saturday sporting .500 records. That may not sound like much, but UTEP and UTSA aren’t exactly what you’d consider traditional powerhouses. In the three seasons before this one, UTEP went 2-34 straight up! They’ve already exceeded that three-year win total with a 3-3 SU start to 2020. UTSA hadn’t been nearly as bad as UTEP, but has already matched LY’s win total by going 4-4 SU. They are the favorites here and likely to win. 

Some context should probably be provided with UTEP’s 3-3 SU start. The Miners have beaten two FCS programs (Stephen F Austin, Abilene Christian) and a LA Monroe team I consider to be among the bottom five in the FBS. On a more positive front, the offense has averaged 25.3 points and 384 yards the L3 games (all vs. FBS foes). Their two highest scoring games of the season (31 vs. LA Monroe and 28 vs. Charlotte) have come during that stretch. Hopefully, the fact they haven’t played in three weeks (COVID-19) doesn’t slow them down. This will also be the Miners’ 4th consecutive road game. 

What initially caught my eye here is the fact UTSA has gone Under in five straight games. They last played two weeks ago and lost 24-3 to Florida Atlantic. But the Roadrunners also gave BYU their toughest game (27-20) and have been involved in three other games where at least 53 total points were scored. That’s why I think this number is too low. UTSA games are averaging 51.3 PPG this season (51-48 win over Texas State helps) while UTEP games average 45.2. This is the lowest O/U line for either team this season. The Over is 13-3 in UTEP’s last 16 November games. 8* Over UTEP/UTSA

8* Kentucky (12:00 ET): At first glance, the idea of laying this many points with Kentucky didn’t really intrigue me. After all, this is a team that’s scored a total of just 13 points its last two games and has struggled to move the ball all season. But they are facing a winless Vanderbilt team in Lexington this week and coming out of a bye. If ever there was a “get right” game for the Wildcats, it would be this one right here. At the start of the season, this was projected to be one of Mark Stoops’ best teams in his eight years in Lexington and my own power rankings say UK should be about a FOUR touchdown favorite! 

While the Kentucky offense - particularly the passing game - has had its fair share of struggles, there are no such issues with the defense, which actually leads the SEC in scoring (only 19.0 PPG allowed). The Wildcats’ D is giving up just 5.0 yards per play and 355.3 yards per game (3rd best in SEC). They held Georgia to just 14 points, Tennessee to 7 and Mississippi State to 2! They should have no problem stopping a Vanderbilt offense whose highest scoring game - 21 points - came in a 33 point defeat. The Commodores are averaging just 12.8 PPG this season, which is obviously last in the SEC.

Last week Vandy probably should have beaten Mississippi State (they lost 24-17), but five turnovers were costly in a game they outgained the opposition 478-204. Don’t go reading too much into that defensive effort though. It came on the heels of the Commies allowing 54 points and 641 total yards the previous week to Ole Miss. They trailed Miss State 17-0 in the 1st half and turnovers have been an issue all year in Nashville as right now Vandy is a SEC worst -8 in TO margin, having given it away at least twice in every game. Kentucky’s defense has forced 12 turnovers in the L4 games. Whoever is in at QB for the Wildcats - Wilson or Gatewood - will be able to move the ball against this lousy Commodores’ defense. Kentucky has beaten Vandy four straight times and are 10-2 ATS L12 home games. 8* Kentucky

8* Wake Forest (12:00 ET): The Demon Deacons have been kind to me on two different occasions this season, both times as an underdog. The first was the season opener vs. Clemson where they covered a very large spread. The second was facing Virginia Tech and that time they pulled off the outright upset. Having now won four straight and coming off a bye, the Deacons are once again getting points this week and I’m going to look to make it 3 for 3 with them. My power ratings comfortably have this as a one-score game. 

Last week marked the second time this season that North Carolina bounced back from a loss in impressive fashion. They crushed rival Duke, winning 56-24 as an 11.5-point favorite. But sustaining success has been a problem for the Tar Heels. Since opening 3-0, they’re just 2-2 SU the L4 games w/ losses to Florida State (as a 17-point favorite) and Virginia (as an 8-point favorite). While those two losses were both by just a field goal and on the road, none of the teams UNC has beaten this year are as good as Wake Forest. At least according to my power rankings.

This matchup is a lot more even than the odds seem to indicate. Furthermore, Wake Forest has been a lot more efficient in the red zone and takes better care of the football. Take away the game vs. NC State (where they were +4 in turnovers) and North Carolina is “in the red” when it comes to TO margin this season. Wake is not only +14 in TO margin (!), but also rested and comes in with a balanced offense averaging 41.3 points over its L4 games. North Carolina has its bye next week then plays host to Notre Dame, so they could be looking past this game. Wake Forest is too good to be anyone’s “look ahead,” so I’m taking the points. 8* Wake Forest

8* Indiana (12:00 ET): Michigan State does have a rather shocking outright win over Michigan to its credit. But Sparty has otherwise demonstrated that they are NOT a very good team in its first year post-Mark Dantonio. There’s a reason they were three touchdown underdogs against the Wolverines. The previous week (season opener) they’d lost by 11 - here at home - to Rutgers. Then last week, after the upset in Ann Arbor, the Spartans were blown out 49-7 at Iowa. Right now, I’ve got them rated as the 2nd WORST team in the Big 10 (ahead of only Illinois). 

 After years of disappointing results, it finally feels like Indiana is breaking through. The Hoosiers are off to a 3-0 start and have beaten Penn State and Michigan. While this might “feel” like an opportunity to fade them, the truth is they are just that much better than Michigan State right now and deserve to be favored on the road. I mentioned above that I’ve got MSU rated as the 2nd worst team in the Big 10. Well, IU is rated third BEST (behind only Ohio State & Wisconsin) and the pollsters are in agreement having them in the Top 10 in the country for the 1st time since 1968! 

Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr is 8-1 SU as a starter, the lone loss coming last year to Michigan State. It certainly seems as if the Hoosiers won’t be lacking for motivation Saturday in East Lansing as HC Tom Allen called this "a trophy game (Ol’ Brass Spitoon!) for us here that we have placed a high value on.” Allen has never beaten MSU in three previous tries. Michigan State’s offense is pretty lousy w/ QB Lombardi tossing THREE interceptions last week and the running game averaging just 78.3 yards (last in Big 10). My own power rankings call for a two touchdown difference in this one. 8* Indiana

10* Over Florida Atlantic/Florida International (7:00 ET): This total opened low and it’s dropped even lower. I now think it’s low enough that an Over play is definitely warranted. Over the course of any football game, there are so many “random” things that can take place, such as a “big play” or a turnover. For a game to stay Under a total this low, all of that would have to be avoided. I’m willing to bet that we get some of that randomness here. Getting two College Football teams to score 20 points in 2020 doesn’t seem like a big ask. Even if both don’t here, one will score enough to get the game Over. 

I am obviously well aware of the fact that every FAU game has stayed Under so far. Through four games, the Owls are averaging just 16.0 PPG while allowing only 11.5 PPG. They are off a 10-6 win over Western Kentucky last week, a game in which I took the points (w/ WKU) and won. No team in the country has seen a lower total PPG scoring average this season than the Owls. But 27.5 PPG is simply too low of a number to sustain. Here they are facing a FIU defense that’s giving up 28.7 PPG. Throw in the fact that the Panthers scored a combined 62 points their first games and this should easily produce FAU’s highest scoring game to date.

FIU hasn’t played in three weeks. Last time we saw them, the Panthers suffered an embarrassing 19-10 defeat at the hands of FCS Jacksonville State. But with all the extra time to prepare for FAU, my view is that FIU’s offense is going to have a bounce back game. Same for FAU, who was tied 0-0 w/ WKU last week. A change at QB was made last week for the Owls and Javion Posey led the game-winning drive. FIU’s defense is giving up 460 YPG. The Over has cashed the L4 times these “Shula Bowl” rivals have met in Miami. Consider that the closing O/U lines for these teams in Week 1 were 63.0 and 61.0.  This number is just too low not to try w/ the Over. 10* Over Florida Atlantic/Florida Intl

10* Indianapolis (8:20 ET): The Titans currently have a one-game edge on the Colts in the AFC South. But, in my eyes, Indy is the better team. That’s built into the line for Thursday night (which is less than 3 pts), but the road dog is still the correct play here in my book. The Colts are outgaining their foes by a larger number on both a per game and per play basis this season. In fact, Tennessee is actually being outgained. If that’s not enough, Indianapolis has the better YTD point differential as well. 

Tennessee is off a win Sunday whereas Indianapolis lost. Those two results have the Titans out in front of the division, but an inspection of the respective box scores reveals just how misleading they were. Indianapolis outgained a very good Baltimore team 339-266 last week, only to lose 24-10 at home. Their outstanding defense (#1 in yards allowed) actually held the Ravens to 4.2 yards per play and before LB Darius Leonard went down, they hadn’t allowed a single point. 

As for Tennessee, they were outgained 375-228 in a 24-17 win over Chicago. While some of that was the Bears running 20 more plays and scoring two late TD’s, the Titans offense only gained 4.1 yards per play and the difference ended up being a defensive score. The Colts defense is statistically better than that of the Bears. I don’t see the Colts offense going 2 for 15 on 3rd down (as the Bears did Sunday). Tennessee has been VERY fortunate this year in going 5-1 SU in one-score games. None of those wins were over teams currently in playoff position and the one close loss (27-24 to Pittsburgh) saw them fall behind 27-7 at home. Take the points. 10* Indianapolis

10* Under Colorado State/Boise State (8:00 ET): Boise State was severely humbled last week, here on the blue turf no less, losing 51-17 to BYU. Quite frankly, it could have been a whole lot worse. I was actually debating playing the Broncos last Friday, but in retrospect am obviously very glad to have passed. I think it’s going to be a pretty difficult loss for them to shake as this week they host Mountain West rival Colorado State. All three Boise State games thus far have gone Over the total. Not this one though. 

Colorado State probably “deserves” to be 1-1 thus far, though I think each score was somewhat misleading. In a season-opening 38-17 loss at Fresno State, they didn’t play nearly as poorly as one would expect judging from that final score. Conversely, they were actually outgained 465-342 in a 34-24 win over Wyoming last weekend. That game saw the Rams obviously benefit from a +3 turnover margin as they opened the scoring with a “pick-six.” The CSU offense isn’t running the ball all that effectively thus far (3.2 YPC) and is averaging just 22 PPG when you take away that defensive score. 

On the positive side, Colorado State’s defense is allowing just 2.5 yards per carry. They may also be in luck in that Boise State could be down to its third string QB. Starter Hank Bachmeier is dealing with an undisclosed injury and has missed the L2 games. His backup, Jack Sears, was knocked out of the BYU game with a concussion. Whether or not either can make it back on the field for Thursday, this is an easy call on the Under, which is 25-11 in Boise’s last 36 home games. 10* Under Colorado State/Boise State

10* Ball State (7:00 ET): Both of these teams suffered close losses on the road last week. You had Eastern Michigan losing 27-23 at Kent State and Ball State losing 38-31 at Miami. Eastern Michigan trailed 20-9 at the half, but rallied to take a 23-20 lead in the 4Q. But it wasn’t to be, as on the next drive the Eagles’ defense gave up what turned out to be the game-winning TD. Ball State enjoyed a much greater advantage last week (led by 11 in the 3Q) but couldn’t close the deal and unlike Eastern Michigan, the Cardinals did NOT cover the spread in their season opener, a very tough break for anyone that had them.

While those results seem pretty similar, an inspection of the box scores reveals that BSU played a whole lot better than Eastern Michigan did a week ago. The Cardinals outgained Miami 478-422 and like I said above had a DD advantage in the second half. Eastern Michigan not only trailed by DD in the 1st Half, they were outgained for the game 431-302. The Eagles’ rushing attack was virtually non-existent as it averaged less than 2.0 yards per carry. As for Ball State, they gained 169 yards on 38 carries.

Despite losing to Miami last week, I have high hopes for this Ball State squad, this week and beyond. They are a veteran team that was actually 4th in YPG differential LY in the conference. Eastern Michigan has a lot LESS returning talent this year and even though they came close last week, it was against a weaker opponent than who Ball State faced. The Cardinals gained 453 yards in last season’s 29-23 win in Ypsilanti and I think are in for another big night here. This being the 2nd of B2B road games is a clear disadvantage for Eastern Michigan. 10* Ball State

8* Bowling Green (7:30 ET): Pretty shocking to see Kent State this big of a favorite, even if the opponent is Bowling Green. The Golden Flashes have been a road favorite just one time under HC Sean Lewis (3rd year here) previous to this. It was last season against what would end up being an 0-12 Akron team. Bowling Green isn’t quite that bad and they are actually getting more points here than Akron did a season ago. Kent State has been road chalk just four times in the last six seasons as well! 

The Golden Flashes did win a home game in their season opener, 27-23 over Eastern Michigan. They did not cover the 5.5-point number as they actually trailed in the 4th quarter and did not score the go-ahead TD until there was 7:30 to go. Of course, a win was a lot better than what Bowling Green did in its season opener. They fell 38-3 at Toledo. That was a really disappointing effort to open HC Scott Loeffler’s second season. But the good news is that the Falcons were a .500 team at home last season and they are back at Perry Stadium this week.

Matt McDonald was thought to be an upgrade at QB for BG, but the Boston College transfer really struggled LW vs. Toledo. I expect him to play better this week. As an underdog, the Falcons can use all the help that they can get. A weather forecast calling for 20 MPH wind might be to their benefit. Wind or not, I just think this is too many points for Kent State to be laying right now. They had a strong finish to 2019, going 5-0 ATS L5 (including a bowl win) but all those covers came from the underdog role. Last week they showed they may struggle ATS as favorites. Take the points. 8* Bowling Green

10* Ohio (7:00 ET): This line was quickly bet up, but it’s still under four touchdowns (28 pts) and that’s still a value to me. In its season opener, Akron once again demonstrated that they’re not even close to being a competitive outfit. They lost 58-13 to Western Michigan and gave up nearly 500 total yards in the process. Remember that the Zips were 0-12 SU in 2019 and last in the country in scoring offense. Ohio was also unsuccessful in their first game, although it was a lot closer when they lost 27-20 to Central Michigan. I was a little shocked the Bobcats didn’t score an offensive TD in the 2nd half in that one. 

From 2014-17, these MAC East rivals were pretty competitive. All four meetings were decided by six points or less, three of them by a total of eight points. Ohio won three of the four and as you might ascertain they’ve since seized control of the rivalry. In 2018, they won 49-28 here in Athens. Last year it was a 52-3 rout at Infocision Stadium. Akron has now lost 12 straight MAC games and all but one has been by double digits!  They are 3-14 ATS L17 MAC games. 

Akron was w/o its starting QB and RB last week, which you could say helps explain the lopsided result. But given how bad the team was last year, I wouldn’t expect drastic improvement even if QB Nelson or RB Gest were to return. Overall, the Zips ended up starting nine players against WMU who are either freshmen or transfers, including four redshirts along the OL. Ohio’s defense gave up only 4.85 yards per play last week (were on the field for 88 plays) while Akron’s was torched for 8.43. This should end up being the Bobcats’ easiest win of 2020. 10* Ohio

10* Over Patriots/Jets (8:15 ET): Despite an unheard of four-game losing streak in Foxboro, I don’t think the Patriots should be written off just yet. They easily could have beaten Buffalo on the road last week. While certainly not up to the caliber of past Bill Belichick teams, this one is closer to average than the 2-5 record suggests. Facing the winless Jets Monday night, I think the offense gets back on track and starts to resemble what we saw earlier in the year in games against Seattle and Las Vegas. The pointspread is too high, so Over is the call Monday night. 

Statistically speaking, the Jets have one of the worst defenses in the league. They are in the bottom 7 in both yards and points allowed. Last week’s 35-9 loss to the Chiefs saw KC elect not to run the ball very much. The previous seven weeks the Jets allowed 110+ rushing yards. Expect them to get a healthy dose of Cam Newton tonight. The Pats gained 188 yds rushing LW vs. Buffalo, the 4th time this season they’ve gained 185 or more. This should be a “get right” game for the New England offense.

The Jets offense seems destined to have to start Joe Flacco at QB (Sam Darnold has a shoulder injury) and while that may not sound awesome, it’s not like Darnold had been playing all that well. No matter who the Jets’ starting QB is, improvement on third down has to be something we see. The team is last in the league, converting just 28.3% of 3D opportunities including 16.2% of its L37. That’s unsustainable and by the simple “law of averages” HAS to get better. While not the lowest O/U line for either team, it’s pretty close this week. The Over is 3-0 this season in Jets’ games where the total is below 42. All but two of their games have seen more points scored than this total. 10* Over Patriots/Jets

10* Tampa Bay (8:20 ET): This is the Buccaneers’ time to shine. They certainly didn’t Monday night when they barely escaped with a 25-23 win over the Giants. But that can be forgiven seeing as how they had this game on the horizon, a revenge spot against one of the two teams that has beaten them this season. Despite coming up short in that Week 1 meeting in New Orleans (34-23), the Bucs actually outgained the Saints 310-271. They were undone by a -3 turnover margin and Tom Brady threw a pick six. I’ve got the Bucs rated #2 in my power rankings (behind the Chiefs) and this relatively short number is a good value. 

New Orleans has won four straight, but covered just one of their last six. All four of their victories during the current win streak have been by six points or fewer with the last three all coming by a field goal and two of those were in overtime! So they’re a bit of a “shaky” 5-2 SU. Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU, but compare their YTD point differential (+82) to that of the Saints (+9). Furthermore, since that Week 1 win over the Bucs, the Saints haven’t beaten anybody that I expect to make the playoffs. The defense is giving up 28.1 PPG.

It can’t be overstated how big of a game this is for the Bucs. They’ve lost four in a row to the Saints, but with Brady, this is clearly the best team they’ve had in awhile. I do expect them to finish as the NFC’s #1 seed. Therefore, it’s quite logical to take them in this spot as they’d be unlikely to capture the NFC South were they to get swept in the season series. Don’t put much stock in what happened Monday night as it was a clear look ahead on the road. They are better than the Saints and will prove it Sunday night. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Under Saints/Buccaneers (8:20 ET): While so much focus will be paid attention to all the talent returning at receiver in this game, these are two of the top three run defenses in the league. Tampa Bay is 1st, giving up only 70.4 YPG on the ground while New Orleans isn’t too far behind (allows 90.6 YPG). So neither offense is going to run the ball all that effectively. Yes, I know every Saints game this season has gone Over the total. But there have been only EIGHT times in NFL history where a team has opened a season with eight consecutive Overs. Take the Under here. 

So Michael Thomas should be back for the Saints. Tampa Bay “expects” Chris Godwin back while the “controversial” Antonio Brown will make his debut here as well. That’s obviously a lot of talent at receiver, but I don’t expect any of those players to have big games Sunday night. Furthermore, the Bucs other standout WR (Mike Evans) has just five catches in his past three matchups with New Orleans. Saints RB Alvin Kamara has been hobbled by a foot injury this week. If you’re a fantasy owner, expect some of these star skill position players to have down weeks! 

While the Week 1 meeting between these teams saw 57 total points scored and (obviously) went Over, be aware that included a “pick six” from Tom Brady. Also, the Saints offense (w/ Thomas) gained just 271 total yards, a season-low. Tampa Bay had just 310 total yards, which was also their season-low. Both offenses are obviously now much more “in sync,” but I look for the defenses to steal the spotlight away from the much more heralded offenses in this one. I just can’t see another NO game going Over. 8* Under Saints/Buccaneers

9* LA Chargers (4:05 ET): The Chargers are better than their record. I feel like that’s something that could be said most seasons. Last year saw the Lightning Bolts finish 5-11 SU, but they were only outscored by EIGHT points! This year has seen a new level of frustration with a 2-5 SU start seeing FOUR losses where they blew a double digit lead! Last week was perhaps a new low as they blew a 21-point second half lead at Denver and lost 31-30. They are the 1st team in league history to lose four straight times when losing by 16+ points! 

While these blown leads will almost certainly cost them a playoff spot, the Chargers still have reason for optimism. Most of it centers around rookie QB Justin Herbert, who leads the AFC in passing yardage per game (303.3) and has thrown at least three TD passes three consecutive weeks. This week, Herbert is facing a Raiders pass defense that is #27 in the league by DVOA standards and has given up 260+ passing yards in five of seven games. Last week’s effort against Cleveland was not indicative of where this Las Vegas defense is at. They’d allowed 30+ pts five of the first six games.

I am digging my heels in the sand that the Chargers are due for a win. Three of those four blown leads came against Kansas City, New Orleans and Tampa Bay. Those are three of the best teams in the league. Las Vegas has been favored only ONE time this year (Wk 1 at Carolina) and has a WORSE YTD point differential than the Chargers. I disagree with the line move here (I’m aware of the Bosa injury). The Chargers are outgaining foes by 53 YPG, REALLY due for a division win (0-8 vs. AFC West L2 years) and I just can’t see LV winning a third straight road game. 9* LA Chargers

10* Over Hoffenheim/Wolfsburg (9:30 ET): Wolfsburg has yet to lose this Bundesliga campaign. The only other club that can make that claim is Bayer Leverkusen, who also plays Sunday. Yet Die Wolfe still find themselves sitting 11th in the table, despite being unbeaten and having conceded only four goals. How can this be? Well, they’ve only scored five times and that’s led to five draws in six matches! For the record, I had them in their only win, which came two weeks ago against promoted Arminia Bielefeld. 

While not unbeaten like Wolfsburg, Hoffenheim has quite a credential on its 2020-21 resume and that’s a 4-1 win over Bayern Munich prior to the first International break. But since that shocking upset, there’s been a real downturn in form as they’ve taken just one point from their last four matches (in a 1-1 draw w/ Werder Bremen). Amidst that slide on the domestic side has been some strong play in the Europa League, however. TSG has won all three matches in that competition while scoring 11 goals. They are off 5-0 win over Liberec midweek, a result which is notable for this play. 

With just nine total goals (five scored, four conceded) in six matches, Wolfsburg is due for some “fireworks,” at least in my estimation. FWIW, this is the same tact I took with my last Over bet on the pitch, last Monday w/ Hellas Verona, a Serie A side whose season had started in familiar fashion to Wolfsburg’s here in the Bundesliga. HV scored three goals in a win Monday. Hoffenheim has both scored and conceded 10 times in this campaign. Look for this one to go Over the total. 10* Over Hoffenheim/Wolfsburg

8* Yan Xiaonan (10:10 ET): This is an intriguing fight in the strawweight division between a former title contender (Gadelha) and a potential future one in Xiaonan. My pick here hasn’t been quite as battle-tested as her opponent, but she is coming off a very impressive win over Karolina Kowalkiewcz that ran her record to 12-1, including a perfect 5-0 in UFC. Her lone loss was all the way back in 2010, so you might as well consider her to be unbeaten. Expect her to have her hand raised one more time Saturday night. 

Gadelha is 18-4 with two of the losses to former champ Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Her recent career has been marked by inactivity and an attempt to try to change her fighting style. She’s off a somewhat controversial split decision win over Angela Hill back in May, which was her second straight win, but also just her 4th fight since 2017. Stamina has long been an issue for Gadelha and that’s going to be a problem against a fighter who has proven she can go the distance and be successful. 

There’s a very good chance that this fight does make it to the scorecards. Neither woman has a recent finish on their resume. In fact, all five of Xiaonan’s wins in the UFC have been by decision. Gadelha may be the strongest opponent Xiaonan has faced to date, but as long as this fight stays on the feet, we’re going to be in good shape. Xiaonan is the better striker and don’t discount the fact she’ll have the edge the longer the fight goes. 8* Yia Xiaonan

8* Tennessee (7:30 ET): Here’s a (small) favorite for the 3-pack, on the road no less. A big reason why I’m fading Arkansas here is that they are 5-0 ATS, a run they will not be able to continue. But it’s also a good spot for Tennessee. The Vols, on a three-game losing streak, are coming out of a bye. Two of those three losses were to Georgia and Alabama. They were #14 in the country before the losing streak began. Now they’re laying less than a field goal to who we all thought was the worst SEC West team coming into the year. 

As evident by their perfect ATS mark, Arkansas has been surprisingly competitive this season. They have wins over Miss State and Ole Miss. They probably SHOULD have beaten Auburn. Coming into 2020, the Razorbacks had not won an SEC game since 2017. Last week, they looked more like the team we are accustomed to seeing in SEC play. While they did get in through the backdoor against Texas A&M (lost 42-31 as a 14.5-pt dog), they trailed 42-17 going into the 4Q and the TD that put them “in the money” came in the final minute.

Tennessee actually led Georgia at halftime! They’ve been victimized by some poor luck/carelessness as they’ve been on the wrong end of THREE defensive TDs during their losing streak. Right now, the Volunteers are dead last in the SEC in third down conversion rate (at 26%). I do not expect that to continue. And speaking of turnovers, Arkansas was a VERY fortunate +7 in their two wins. They were actually outgained in both of those victories. Tennessee is 7-2-1 ATS L10 as a road favorite of 3 pts or less and 7-3 ATS L10 road games overall. 8* Tennessee

8* Baylor (7:00 ET): Baylor did NOT play well last week. They trailed TCU 30-0 in the first half, at home. While the Bears did rally to get within 10, you really can’t call the 33-23 loss “close.” But similarly, Iowa State’s 52-22 win over Kansas last week was not as big of a “blowout” as you might think. The Cyclones were “only” up 16 on the worst team in the Big 12 with just over five minutes remaining. Though they ended up covering the number there, ISU has NOT been reliable as a big favorite including a 2-6 ATS mark when laying 10.5 to 21 points. Baylor is 20-9-1 ATS as a double digit dog. 

With Oklahoma State losing to Texas last week, Iowa State is now tied for the conference lead. They are ranked #17 in the country. But in addition to their own woes as chalk, we have consistently seen ranked teams struggle to cover as DD favorites against unranked opponents this College Football season. The Cyclones have also failed to cover the L3 times they’ve been a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points. A number of Iowa State games have been close calls this season. Three of the six games have been decided by 7 points or less.

Baylor’s defense actually ranks 4th in the Big 12 in terms of yards allowed. The offense, despite a senior QB (Charlie Brewer), has been the issue this season. Brewer’s completion percentage is at a career-low right now, but some of that has to do with the offensive line, which is now healthy for the first time this season. Despite the 1-3 SU record, Baylor actually does have a positive scoring differential as none of their losses have been by more than 11 points. They were able to stay within 11 of Texas in Austin. The number here is even larger than it was in Austin, which is something I don’t agree with as I’ve got Texas higher in my power rankings. Take the points. 8* Baylor

8* Western Kentucky (6:00 ET): Well, I’m going to give the Hilltoppers another try this week. They are now 0-7 at the betting window (worst ATS record in the country) and 2-5 SU after LW’s 41-10 loss to #9 BYU. WKU is clearly underperforming expectations this season, but it is worth noting last week they had three 10+ play drives amount to a combined three points. That’s stunning. QB Tyrrell Pigrome is back, so I have confidence that the Hilltoppers can move the ball and in a game with a (very) low total, I’m taking the points. 

Florida Atlantic has played just three games. I faded them in the first, a 21-17 win over Charlotte where they did NOT cover the spread. Since then, the Owls have lost 20-9 at Marshall and won 24-3 over UTSA. So no FAU game has seen more than 38 total points scored! With that being the case, it is very difficult to imagine them covering the spread as this large of a favorite. This just isn’t the same team we saw under Lane Kiffin. The Owls certainly aren’t in the same class as previous WKU opponents such as UAB, Liberty, Louisville and especially BYU. 

I just have a hard time believing WKU is as bad as they have looked thus far. The fact they have played seven games and FAU has played only three is an advantage for the underdog. Again, FAU has yet to score more than 24 points in any game this season. Thus, no matter the opponent, you almost HAVE to fade with them in this kind of price range. Western Kentucky WILL improve on its almost unfathomable 29.5% third down conversion rate. The defense hasn’t been bad, all things considered. Take the points. 8* Western Kentucky

10* Under Kansas/Oklahoma (3:30 ET): During this perfect 11-0 NCAAF totals run that I am on, it’s been pretty surprising just how many Unders have been cashed. What I’ve been doing is simply going Under in games where one or both teams have been on long Over streaks. We’ve got one here in Kansas, who has seen all of its games - but one - go Over this season. That one exception, a 47-14 loss to Baylor, was a push. This matchup with Oklahoma completely fits the bill of what I’ve been doing during the streak. I’m taking the Under. 

Now I realize there is concern that Oklahoma has the capability to send this one Over themselves. Last week, the Sooners hung 62 on Texas Tech. But their previous high (in regulation) for a game was 48 against a FCS school, Missouri State, and that was also a shutout. If OU is up as big as expected here (they are a 38-pt favorite!), then it’s highly likely they take their “foot off the gas” in the second half. Last week they scored 48 in the first half and then only 14 in the second. It’s unlikely they are going to score 48 in a half two weeks in a row. 

Kansas won’t score much at all here. The 22 points they put up last week was a season-high in Big 12 play. The previous four games were all 17 pts or less and twice they failed to reach 200 total yards. It should be noted that four of their six games have finished with 61 total points or less. Last week was right at 60 before Iowa State curiously scored two late TDs.  This is the highest O/U line of the year for any Kansas game. It will stay Under the number. 10* Under Kansas/Oklahoma

10* West Ham (3:00 ET): For the first time in seven tries this campaign, Fulham was able to emerge victorious last week. They downed West Brom 2-0 and the three points that come with the win allows them to temporarily escape the relegation zone (bottom three in the table). But make no mistake about it, the Cottagers are going to struggle to remain in England’s top flight. Beating the Premier League’s other recently promoted side was nice, but Fulham had been outscored by nine goals in its first six matches. 

Though they saw a four-match unbeaten streak end (WWDD) last week against Liverpool, the Hammers have definitely proven to be the proverbial “tough out” this Premier League campaign. They still sit closer to the bottom of the table than the top (currently in 14th), but have a positive goal differential (+3), which is something no other side in the bottom half can claim. A loss to Liverpool, who won the Premier League LY and entered the week leading the table, was something to be expected.

This is a golden opportunity for West Ham to pick up three points and move up the table. They’ve already beaten Leicester City 4-0 and Wolverton 3-0 while drawing with Tottenham and Man City. Since losing 2-0 to Newcastle in Week One, the Hammers have been successful in three of their past four home matches. Fulham has yet to win on the road and wins of any kind will be few and far between. Can’t see the bottom-feeders earning points in two straight matches and this is West Ham’s for the taking. 10* West Ham

8* Sevilla FC (12:30 ET): On the International side of things, Sevilla FC is doing just fine. Last year’s Europa League winners just won their Champions League match on Wednesday, doing so in thrilling fashion, as they erased a 2-0 deficit to win 3-2. They are well on their way to the knockout stage. However, there’s no running from the fact Los Nervionenses have underperformed on the domestic side of things. They have lost three straight La Liga matches to fall to 16th in the table. This is a side that was expected to finish top four. 

I see Sevilla getting back on track Saturday as they host Osasuna, an opponent they have defeated seven straight times here at home. The last time Osasuna won at Estadio Ramon was February of 2006! It was a 3-2 final in this fixture last season. Osasuna’s own form leaves plenty to be desired, even though they currently sit above Sevilla in the table. Los Rojillos are on the backend of a 3-1 home defeat at the hands of Atletico Madrid. With Barcelona being their next away match, this is a pretty brutal stretch. 

Sevilla has conceded only six times in six La Liga matches, which is very good! The problem is they’ve only scored six times themselves. Wednesday clearly showed that they are capable of scoring goals in bunches as they stormed back w/ three goals despite being down a man. A big problem for Osasuna is that they have not scored more than one goal in five of their previous six matches. Unlike Sevilla, I see no signs that is going to change. It’s time for Sevilla to get going. 8* Sevilla FC

9* Nebraska (12:00 ET): So the Cornhuskers got an unexpected bye last week when their scheduled opponent (Wisconsin) got hit with a COVID 19 outbreak. That was dually beneficial, not just for the bye, but also they avoided what would have been a likely loss in Lincoln. The ‘Huskers have already lost once this year, not unexpectedly, as they went up against Ohio State in the season opener and that went about as poorly as you’d expect. But this week’s opponent isn’t Ohio State or Wisconsin. Take the points.

Northwestern is 2-0, but needed to come back from an early 17-0 deficit to win last Saturday in Iowa. The Wildcats were far more impressive the previous week, beating Maryland 43-3, which now looks even more impressive given how the Terps handled Minnesota. But something that sticks out to me about this Wildcats’ team is that they have benefited from SEVEN turnovers (by the opponents) in two games! They can’t count on receiving that many giveaways every week. It should also be pointed out that the N’western offense had just 273 total yards last week and had a horrible 2.4 yards per rush attempt. 

Even though it’s a unique and shortened season, Nebraska needs to show SOMETHING in its third year under HC Scott Frost. The team went just 4-8 and 5-7 his first two years here. They lost three games as a favorite in 2019. I like the chances of covering here as four of the last five meetings w/ Northwestern have been one score games, three of which have been by a field goal or less. Two went to overtime. Frost used two QBs against Ohio State, which will make his team difficult to prepare for. Northwestern is 1-7-1 ATS its last 9 games as a home favorite. 9* Nebraska

8* San Francisco (8:20 ET): So there’s been plenty of mid-week drama in this one, but I’m sticking with the 49ers. Yes, they are going to be without both QB Jimmy Garoppolo and TE George Kittle. But they have been playing without key performers all season and are still a very respectable 4-4 SU this season with a +35 point differential. As I stated earlier in the year, the “downgrade” from Garoppolo to backup Nick Mullens isn’t that severe. With Mullens at helm, the 49ers have won a game 36-9. Let’s also not forget that Green Bay is missing some key pieces for this one, namely at running back. I’ll be taking the points. 

As I’ve been quite clear about for a while now, I see the Packers regressing this year. They went 13-3 SU in the 2019 regular season, but were very lucky to do so. Now after last week’s 28-22 upset loss to the Vikings, they’ve lost twice in the past three weeks. I faded them against Tampa Bay in what was my top NFL pick for October! Last week against Minnesota, the defense was run over by Vikings RB Dalvin Cook. Speaking of running the ball, the Packers are really going to struggle to do so here, especially if Aaron Jones (questionable) doesn’t make it onto the field. That would make it THREE RB’s down for the Pack. 

Now San Francisco is going to be without a ton. In fact, they won’t have a single player responsible for any of the total yardage in LY’s two wins over Green Bay. But still, even against Aaron Rodgers, they shouldn’t be getting this many points at home. The offense should be able to move the ball against a GB defense that allowed 173 rush yards last week. The Packers are 0-6 ATS the L6 years in Week 9. The 49ers are 7-2 ATS L9 as an underdog. 8* San Francisco

10* Utah State (7:00 ET): Needless to say, it’s been a couple of VERY different starts to the season for these two Mountain West teams. Utah State is 0-2 SU/ATS. They’ve been outscored 80-20 and the lone TD last week came on a circus catch near the end of the half. But, as always, some context needs to be provided.  So far, the Aggies have faced Boise State and San Diego State, two of the standard bearers in this conference. I think we’re getting a REAL generous number here as they are set to visit Reno. 

Nevada is 2-0, both straight up and against the spread. But the Wolf Pack have played Wyoming and UNLV. Wyoming lost its starting QB early, yet was still able to force OT against the Wolf Pack. I tried taking a flier on UNLV hosting the Wolf Pack last Saturday night. While that ended up NOT working out (Nevada won 37-19 as a 2 TD favorite), note that was a one-score game entering the 4th quarter. Something I find fascinating for this matchup is that last year Utah State was a 21-point favorite in Logan … and covered the spread.

Granted that was w/ Jordan Love at QB, but I don’t think the odds should be shifting more than FIVE touchdowns from last season’s meeting. Utah State HC Gary Andersen really ripped his team’s 2H effort vs. San Diego State, thus we should be getting a pretty motivated performance from the dog on Thursday night. It’s a national TV game (FS1) where the Aggies don’t want to be embarrassed. Eight of the last 12 meetings between these two teams have been decided by 6 pts or less. USU has covered just one of the last five as a home favorite. 10* Utah State

8* Ohio (7:00 ET): Ohio HC Frank Solich has never won a MAC Title despite being the conference’s all-time wins leader. For the second consecutive season, the Bobcats come in as the betting favorite to win the conference. They open in Mt Pleasant against a Central Michigan team that has given them fits in the past. This non-division rivalry has seen CMU capture four in a row, three of those wins coming as underdogs. The Chippewas had an incredible bounce back in 2019, going from 1-11 SU (in ‘18) to 8-6 and an appearance in the MAC Championship. I believe they’re likely to regress in 2020 and OU gets its revenge.

The big storyline (for both teams) coming into this season opener will be at the QB position. Both are breaking in new starters at the most important position. Ohio can’t possibly replace the production of Nathan Rourke, who left as the school’s all-time leading passer and was a running threat as well. But whoever ends up being the new starter will have a lot of talent at RB and WR. Three starters also return along the offensive line. For the record, we will probably see both Kurtis Rourke (Nathan’s brother) and Armani Rogers (UNLV transfer) under center for the Bobcats on Wednesday.

Central Michigan will almost certainly be starting freshman Daniel Richardson, although Sam Houston State transfer Ty Brock could get some snaps as well. The issue here is that senior David Moore is under suspension for PED use. On the defensive side of the ball, the Chips lost a pair of corners before fall camp. They have less overall production returning than Ohio and I believe the “plexiglass principle” is in play this year for CMU. Solich will badly want to beat this team, especially after starting LY 1-3. The Bobcats’ receivers will exploit the depleted CMU secondary and move the team to 12-5 SU L17 MAC games. 8* Ohio

8* Borussia Dortmund (3:00 ET): While BVB has generally displayed poor form away from home in this competition and there’s the possibility for a look ahead to Saturday’s Der Klassiker (vs. Bayern Munich), I like them to get the three points Wednesday. That would allow for Dortmund to jump their opponents here (Brugge) in Group F and move on to the knockout stage. That should be enough motivation for them to (temporarily) put aside their excitement over the biggest Bundesliga match to date.

The difference between these two sides is that Brugge was able to draw with Lazio while Dortmund fell 3-1 to I Biancocelesti. Both have beaten Zenit St. Petersburg. I admit that BVB’s 2-0 win in matchday two was not all that impressive. But that was followed by another 2-0 win over Arminia Bielefeld over the weekend on the domestic side (Bundesliga). Thus, Dortmund concluded October with five clean sheets in six matches (Lazio the only exception), which is a really impressive feat and something that should not be overlooked. 

The Belgian side are making a third straight Champions League appearance. They’ve finished third in Group stage each of the last two years, so history says they are going to lose here. Keep in mind they needed a late strike to get past Zenit St. Petersburg (2-1) and then it was a penalty that got them a draw against Lazio (who was depleted due to COVID-19). So it easily could be one point instead of four coming into this final match of the Group stage. Dortmund is clearly the more talented side here and I’m banking that they show it. 8* Borussia Dortmund

10* Under Bucs/Giants (8:15 ET): The point spread for this game has been bet up considerably. While it’s hard to fathom Tampa Bay losing outright, laying double digits (especially on the road) is something I would almost never do in this league. So we turn to the total. The Buccaneers shouldn’t have much trouble containing the Giants’ meager offense Monday night. This Bucs’ defense is allowing just 20.3 PPG and is one of only three defenses in the league (Colts, Steelers) to be allowing LESS than 300 total yards per game. They are #1 against the run.

Heading into Sunday, Tampa Bay had the best point differential in the sport. They’ve outscored their opponents by 80 points. The defense has allowed more than 20 points in just two games this season. They allowed 34 in a Week 1 loss to the Saints and then 31 in a Week 4 win over the Chargers. In both games, QB Tom Brady was guilty of throwing a “pick six,” so the defensive numbers (in terms of points allowed) are even better than they already look. The Giants offense, in case you didn’t know, is one of the very worst in the league. They are averaging just 17.4 PPG and the only time they’ve topped 21 was against the Cowboys, who have arguably the worst defense in the league. 

So I’m pretty confident that the Giants are not scoring many points here. Not only have they scored 21 pts or less in six of seven games, they’ve been held under 17 four times. Those four times were against the best four defenses they’ve faced and a case could be made that TB is the BEST defense they will face all season! So it all comes down to the Giants defense hopefully containing Brady and company. The Bucs’ offense will be without Chris Godwin (one of their starting receivers) so that’s a plus on that front. They did put up 45 themselves last week, but that was on the heels of two games where they averaged a modest 330 YPG. Only one Giants game all season has seen more than 45 total pts scored. 10* Under Bucs/Giants

10* Over Benevento/Hellas Verona (2:45 ET): The final match of Week Six in Serie A sees two teams from the middle of the table hooking up. Recently promoted Benevento, after a surprising 2-1 start to the season, seems to have fallen into poor form. They’ve lost three in a row including 4-2 to Empoli in the Coppa Italia midweek. Hellas Verona is off a 3-3 draw against Venezia in the Coppa Italia, a result not unfamiliar to them as it was their third straight draw overall. They drew LY’s champs Juventus (1-1) in their last Serie A competition.

Hellas Verona has somewhat become “known” for playing to a draw. In 2020, only one other side from Europe’s top five leagues - La Liga’s Celta Vigo (14) - has more draws than Hellas Verona’s 11. But something else HV matches have been known for this year - at least here in Serie A - is being low scoring. In five previous matches, they’ve conceded only twice. That’s comfortably the fewest number in the league. They’ve also only scored five times, which is tied for the league-low. 

But I feel that’s about to change in this matchup. Benevento has conceded 14 times, which is third most in all of Serie A. And consider that’s despite not yet playing their sixth match. At the same time, the nine goals scored is somewhat respectable. Benevento has conceded at least twice in five of their last six matches. They should give up at least that many here, probably at least one in the first half as Hellas Verona is the lone Serie A side w/o a 1H goal this season. (That’s due to change). It would be huge if Benevento found the back of the net as well and I think they will as they’ve yet to be kept clean. 10* Over Benevento/Hellas Verona

8* Dallas (8:20 ET): Hold your nose and grab the points here as we’re taking the Cowboys plus the points Sunday night. To be clear, I have not lost my mind. Rather, I’m very cognizant of the fact the look ahead line for this game was just +2.5. It was then adjusted after another ugly Dallas loss last week (to +7.5) and has now risen past double digits with the announcement that 3rd string QB Ben DiNucci will be starting this week. I don’t think a 2-4-1 Eagles team - that has plenty of its own problems - should be laying this many points to anybody right now. 

Consider that the Eagles were a dog of 7 pts or more three straight games before LW’s win over the Giants. That win was by just a single point and required a 4Q comeback at home. That right there should give the Cowboys hope. Philly’s two wins this year have been by a total of six points and they have a YTD point differential of -33. The Dallas defense has forced a league-low three turnovers thus far, but Eagles QB Carson Wentz is tied for a league-high 10 interceptions and has turned it over 12 times total. 

With the Jets covering last week (I had ‘em!), the Cowboys are the lone remaining winless team ATS. They are 0-7 ATS, which is the worst start to a season at the betting window since the ‘03 Raiders. They’re due for a cover here and it should come at a time when everyone is doubting them. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS as favorites this season and have won just one of those four games straight up. They are just 3-12 ATS L15 as a home favorite. Take the points. 8* Dallas

9* San Francisco (4:25 ET): As revealed in last week’s *10* ULTIMATE POWER release on Arizona, I am not as high on Seattle as the marketplace seems to be. This despite the team’s 5-1 SU record (were 5-0 going into last week). Statistically, they have the worst defense in the league as they allow the most yards per game (479.2) & it’s really not even close. Jacksonville allows the 2nd most YPG in the league and they are allowing almost 55 YPG less than Seattle! The Seahawks are particularly vulnerable against the pass as we saw last Sunday night when they allowed Kyler Murray to throw for 360 yards. 

Consider this: the Seattle defense has allowed the most passing yards EVER through the first six games of the season. They’ve allowed more total yards than all but three teams and that’s despite the fact they’ve already had their bye and a majority of teams have not! San Francisco has no such defensive issues. Despite an outlier game against Miami (where they lost 43-17), the 49ers are giving up an average of just 19.4 PPG this year. They are #5 in both scoring and total defense. I took them two weeks ago when they upset the Rams at home, 24-16, as a 3-point underdog on SNF. They are getting healthier while Seattle could be w/o its top three running backs here. 

After Jim Harbaugh made his exodus from SF, this became a pretty one-sided divisional rivalry (in Seattle’s favor). But the 49ers have won two of the last three meetings, including the one here in Seattle LY. But what’s really impressive is the fact the 49ers have covered seven straight times as an underdog, all but one of those times coming on the road where they are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS this season. Remember that virtually all of Seattle’s games end up being close and they’ve tended to be very lucky in terms of results. That luck ran out last week in the desert and I’m not concerned that this number moved several points from the lookahead as I have SF rated as the better team! 9* San Francisco

8* Tottenham (2:15 ET): While there’s been much consternation overall the Spurs’ recent form, they’ve actually been quite impressive here in the Premier League. They’ve got the best goal differential in the English top flight and despite having played one fewer match than most other sides, they’ve scored the second most goals (16). Only Liverpool (17) has scored more and that’s only because they played yesterday. Bottom line is that I am expecting Tottenham to make a run to the top of the table. 

Now a Europa League loss to Royal Antwerp on Thursday was not what the doctor ordered. Jose Mourinho made several changes to his lineup for that one, including the re-introduction of Gareth Bale into the starting lineup. But it was not to be. Still, you’ve got to remember we had the Hotspurs on Monday when they scored late to prevail 1-0 over Burnley. The domestic match before that one saw them up 3-0 before infamously coughing up that lead to West Ham. They haven’t lost an EPL match since the opener.

I see too much firepower here to be beaten by bottom-feeder Brighton & Hove Albion, a side with just one Premier League win. B&H are on a four match winless streak on the domestic side. I see them as likely to be fighting off relegation this season. They have just one Premier League win over Tottenham - ever. They managed just a pair of draws against fellow bottom feeders Crystal Palace and West Brom the L2 times out and conceded a total of 10 times in their three losses. A good matchup for the Spurs here. 8* Tottenham.

10* Miami (1:00 ET): There is a tremendous situational edge in this matchup for the Dolphins. They are coming out of a bye while the visiting Rams are on a short week. While you may recall last week’s play on Arizona found them on a short week facing a Seattle team off its bye, note the differences. Arizona was at home and GETTING points. The Rams are on the road and laying points. It’s an early start time too. Yes, the Rams do have a (recent) history of performing better than expected in these 1:00 ET starts, I don’t see that continuing this week. Both Rams losses this season have been on the road and one (at Buffalo) was an early start. 

Of course, the BIG story for this game is that Tua Tagovailoa will be making his first career start for Miami. While it’s a bit of a gamble by HC Brian Flores, the current “lay of the land” in the AFC East dictates a “go for it” mentality. The Jets are terrible, the Patriots are declining and I don’t think the Bills are as good as everyone thinks. Quietly, the Dolphins have outscored their opponents by 47 points (despite being 3-3). All three wins have been by at least 18 points. Prior to the bye, they destroyed a San Francisco team (43-17!) that the Rams lost to and then shut out the Jets 24-0. The Fins are a perfect 5-0 ATS the L5 years off their bye! 

The Rams are 5-2 SU, but four of those wins have come at the expense of the moribund NFC East. The only non-NFC East win was Monday against offensively inept Chicago. This is already their FOURTH trip into the Eastern Time Zone this season. Remember that they were down huge in Buffalo before a furious 2H rally fell short. Tua has had two weeks to prepare for his 1st start and there’s a reason Miami made him their top draft choice. He clearly has more upside than Ryan Fitzpatrick. Take the points in what is my biggest NFL play of the season! 10* Miami

8* UNLV (10:30 ET): The Rebels certainly didn’t show much in their first game under new HC Marcus Arroyo. They were soundly beaten, 34-6 by San Diego State, gaining just 186 total yards in the process. But that was one of the Mountain West’s top teams they were up against there and it was on the road. Here, they’re at home and playing their rival (battle for the “Fremont Cannon!”), who they’ve upset each of the last two seasons. This is actually the 1st game at the brand new Allegiant Stadium that will have fans. The line has moved too much. Take the points. 

Nevada’s season started with a 37-34 overtime win against Wyoming. The Wolfpack had a double digit early, but let the Cowboys back in it despite the fact they lost their starting QB. Winning close is nothing new for Nevada as they are now 9-3 SU the L2 seasons in games decided by seven points or less. That makes the fans in Reno happy, but it also means the Wolf Pack aren’t exactly an ideal candidate to be laying this many points. Two of those three close losses that they’ve suffered came at the hands of UNLV, including 34-29 as a 2 TD favorite here in Vegas two years ago. 

Last season, the Rebels pulled off a 33-30 upset in Reno, a game that went to overtime and was marred by a post-game brawl. Nevada is traditionally not a great road team as LY they faced just one team that was in a bowl away from home. They are 2-5 ATS L7 as a road favorite. While UNLV was gashed on the ground by San Diego State last week, Nevada had only 76 yds rushing in its win over Wyoming (less than 3.0 yds per carry).  The Rebels are 12-3-1 ATS following an ATS loss. 8* UNLV

8* Western Kentucky (10:15 ET): I don’t think any team has underperformed its expectations this College Football season more so than Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers are 0-6 ATS, easily the worst such mark in the country. Last week, they barely managed to beat an FCS squad, Chattanooga. While this might not exactly be a “rousing” endorsement of a side I’m going to take on Saturday against a BYU team that has clearly OVERPERFORMED its own expectations, this is a lot of points & I don’t think WKU is this bad. 

BYU is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. This will already be the third time this season that the Cougars have been asked to lay 28 or more points at the betting window. Their lone ATS loss came in a really lethargic effort vs. UTSA three weeks ago when they only won 27-20 as 34-point chalk. Last week did see them defeat Texas State 52-14 as a 29-point favorite. But as rough as things have been for Western Kentucky so far, they are still a better team than those two aforementioned BYU opponents. I have the Hilltoppers rated several points higher than Texas State, for example.

Three of Western Kentucky’s six games, including both of their SU wins, have been decided by six points or less. They also stayed within 14 of Louisville in the season opener. I can’t imagine a team going winless ATS for an entire season, so you know that elusive first cover is coming for the team from Bowling Green. They have covered 10 of the last 14 times they’ve been a road underdog of more than three touchdowns. BYU is in a look ahead to a showdown with Boise State next week, which will be their toughest regular season game. 8* Western Kentucky

10* Charlotte (7:00 ET): While there is no denying that Duke’s all-ACC schedule has been more difficult than what Charlotte has faced thus far, I still don’t think the Blue Devils should be laying more than a touchdown in this spot - even after a bye. Under HC David Cutcliffe, Duke has been terrible as a favorite, going just 1-7 ATS when -3.5 to -10 and that includes SIX outright losses! They are a 1-5 (SU) team that turns the ball over way too much for my tastes (22 times in six games). Trust me when I say you’re going to want to take the points in this one. 

Charlotte comes in at 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS. Last week was the first non-cover of the season as they only beat UTEP by 10 (were laying 17). The 49ers have been dogs two times previous to this and (obviously) covered both times. Those games were against a pair of conference champs from last season, Appalachian State and Florida Atlantic. I had them against FAU. That was followed by a 49-21 thrashing of North Texas on the road as 3.5-point chalk where they gained over 600 total yards of offense. They didn’t move the ball nearly as well last week vs. UTEP (surprising) but fortunately for the 49ers, Duke has allowed 26+ points in every game so far.

Duke’s only win this year was against a Syracuse team that is really bad. They turned it over the same number of times in their last game (3) as Charlotte has all season. The Blue Devils are last in the ACC in turnover margin while Charlotte is 1st in that department among C-USA teams. The 49ers also lead their conference in time of possession. Not only is Duke w/o its star CB Mark Gilbert, starting center Will Taylor just had knee surgery. QB Chase Brice is completing only 55% of his attempts and has 11 interceptions. 10* Charlotte

8* Under Notre Dame/Georgia Tech (3:30 ET): Georgia Tech is two weeks removed from a 73-7 beatdown at the hands of Clemson. I played against them last week, thinking +3.5 was WAY too short of a number on the road vs. Boston College. I couldn’t have been more right. The Yellow Jackets lost 48-27 in Chestnut Hill in what was my top ACC play for October. However, be advised that the number of points GT allowed was a bit misleading. BC had a defensive TD + three scoring drives of less than 40 yards (all TDs). 

Notre Dame is playing in the ACC this year and off to a 5-0 start (four wins in conference play). They completely crushed Pitt last week with the offense putting up 45 points. But let’s not dismiss what the defense did, holding the Panthers to just three points and 44 yards rushing. The Fighting Irish lead the ACC in both scoring and total defense and are top 10 nationally in both categories. They’ve allowed only one opponent (Florida State) to score more than 13 points this year.

Maybe Notre Dame can ask Georgia Tech for some “tips” about facing Clemson because that’s who the Irish will face NEXT week. With such a huge game on deck (two Top 5 teams!), I seriously doubt Brian Kelly will want to show much offensively in a game his team should win easily. Remember it was only two weeks ago that the Irish scored only 12 points in a win over Louisville. So it’s not as if they’re immune to an “off day.” Georgia Tech’s defense has been pretty bad, leading to five straight Overs, but remember the theme of this 3-pack. They’ll benefit from ND being a little disinterested in this one. 8* Under Notre Dame/Ga Tech

8* Under Coastal Carolina/Georgia State (12:00 ET): The theme of this 3-pack of totals will be readily apparent to those who have followed recent/season results. Bottom line is I’m looking to buck the Over trends from certain teams. One such example is Georgia State, who has gone Over in all four games this season. The last time I checked in with this team was two weeks ago and they gave up 59 points in a loss to Arkansas State (They scored 52 in that game). Crazy as it may sound, the Panthers’ defense isn’t as bad as that performance (or some other numbers suggest).

Georgia State is actually quite good at stopping the run. They are allowing just 97.0 YPG on the ground and 3.15 yards per carry, both of which are Sun Belt bests. This is particularly handy against a Coastal Carolina offense whose strength is an ability to run and will likely be starting a backup QB for the second straight week. In last week’s 36-34 win over Troy, Georgia State gave up two defensive touchdowns, skewing the scoreboard. Besides the wild Arkansas State game, the Panthers’ defense has not surrendered more than 30 points in regulation all season.

Coastal Carolina’s defense was outstanding last week as it held Georgia Southern to 14 points (none in the 2H) and only 218 total yards in a season-best effort. The Chanticleers have held every opponent to 27 points or less and are now 5-0 SU, earning themselves a Top 20 ranking for the 1st time. The defense is #26 in the country in yards allowed per game. With Fred Payton likely to start in place of the injured Grayson McCall for a second straight game, the offense isn’t as dynamic as it was at the start of the season. Even w/ the number coming down, this is still likely to close as the 2nd highest CC O/U line to date. 8* Under Coastal Carolina/Georgia State

8* Under Temple/Tulane (12:00 ET): These teams are a combined 7-1-1 Over, but remember the theme of the 3-pack. Temple has played only three times and every game has been pretty wild w/ a 39-37 come from behind win over USF sandwiched in between losses to Navy (31-29) and Memphis (41-29). Tulane is just 2-4 w/ the L5 games all going Over the total. The fewest number of total points scored in a Green Wave game the L4 weeks has been 71! But they’ve been up against some pretty great offenses and that’s not really the case here.

The last three games have seen Tulane face Houston, SMU and Central Florida, three of the top offenses in the American. The Green Wave certainly didn’t get a ton of stops in those games, but the defense has been very good at generating a pass rush (2+ sacks in every game besides Navy, who really doesn’t throw) and Temple really struggled in pass protection LW vs. Memphis. The Green Wave were just blitzed in the 2nd quarter by UCF last week (gave up 27 points) but really weren’t that bad otherwise (crazy as that may sound). They also shut out Navy for a half earlier in the season.

The strength of the Tulane offense is running the football, but note Temple is allowing just 3.9 yards per carry. Tulane has scored a total of THREE defensive touchdowns the L3 games, so the offense isn’t as productive as those final scores might lead you to believe. The SMU game went to overtime and the game vs. Houston featured THREE non-offensive touchdowns. Take that “randomness” out of the equation, all of a sudden the games aren’t as high-scoring. Last year’s game was 29-21 (in favor of Temple) despite Tulane running for 200 yards. I expect both defenses to step up here. 8* Under Temple/Tulane

10* Eintracht Frankfurt (10:30 AM ET): Eintracht Frankfurt was my pick for most improved club this Bundesliga campaign and so far it’s been mixed results. They are currently sitting near the middle of the table, not far off from last year’s finish, with 8 points. They are level (same # of points) with this week’s opponents, Werder Bremen, the only difference being a slightly inferior goal differential. However, the fact Frankfurt has been outscored by two goals in their five matches (while Bremen is even) can easily be explained by the fact the former had to face Bayern Munich (#1 team in Europe) last week.

Frankfurt probably didn’t feel they had much of a shot at beating Bayern Munich last week, however a 5-0 defeat (which is what happened) is not what they had in mind either. That was their first loss of the campaign as they’d opened with two wins sandwiched in between a pair of draws. It was also the first time they’d conceded more than a goal in a match. This side is clearly better than it showed last weekend. I still view them as a top five team in the Bundesliga.

Werder Bremen is NOT a name I expected to be fighting to be near the top of the table, but here we are. They are unbeaten in their last four matches, but also coming off B2B draws against Hoffenheim and Freiburg. It should be noted that the only time Bremen has scored more than one goal was at the expense of Schalke, who is the dreg of this league. This side isn’t at 100% fitness as there will be key absences for this away test. The last two times these clubs have met, the result has been a combined 5-0 score for Frankfurt. 10* Eintracht Frankfurt

8* Maryland (7:30 ET): Maryland played a horrendous season opener, turning it over four times and losing 43-3 at Northwestern. They’ve got to shake that off as they prepare to welcome in a Minnesota team that’s off its own blowout loss. The Golden Gophers were thinking upset last Saturday night as they hosted Michigan, but had no answers defensively in a 49-25 defeat where they gave up 35 first half points and nearly 500 total yards for the game. So there is hope for the Terps Friday night and I’ll take the points.

It’s going to be tough for Minnesota to bounce back from last week. They’ll probably still win here mind you, but the team thought it could compete with Michigan and didn’t. A short week is not the remedy to get over a disappointing loss such as that one. Yes, I remember the Gophers did win 11 games LY but they also played a very soft schedule (by Big 10 standards). They clobbered Maryland 52-10 at home, which I’m sure is remembered by the Terrapins. HC PJ Fleck usually does a good job motivating his teams, but I do not believe Minnesota will be the more motivated team Friday night. 

Going back to last year, Maryland has now lost eight in a row by an average of more than 30 PPG. That’s not good for HC Mike Locksley, whose tenure began with two wins where the offense scored 142 points! Since then, the Terps are 1-10 SU with the only win coming against Rutgers. Even though it’s just his second season here in College Park, Locksley can ill-afford a blowout loss on national television. Despite the success under Fleck, this is more points than Minnesota is accustomed to laying on the road. They were just -16 at home vs. Maryland LY. 8* Maryland