10* Washington (6:05 ET):  It has been a disastrous start to the season for the Mercury, who are 0-4 - both straight up and against the spread.  In their last game, Wednesday at home vs. Minnesota, they were close but still lost by seven as four-point dogs. That was after failing to cover the spread by double digits in each of the first three games. Tonight, they host a Washington team off B2B outright upsets, so it looks like once again the oddsmakers do not have these teams properly valued.  Take the points.

Despite having Brittney Griner on the roster, the Mercury are last in the league in defense (89.5 PPG allowed) with opponents shooting a blistering 46.9% from the field, including 33.3% from three-point range.  The team is also last in the league in rebounding (29.9 per game).  Griner finished with just two points and four boards against Minnesota.  Considering they have been outrebounded in every game and nearly outshot in all games as well, this is simply not a team I'd want to be laying points with right now. 

Look for the Mystics to exploit the Mercury's poor three-point defense as they are shooting 37.8% from behind the arc, best in the league.  Yes, both of their recent upset wins required overtime.  But there is no denying that they are playing better than the Mercury right now.  It should be noted that on the road, they led Seattle by as many as 14 points in the second half Thursday.  So the fact that one went to OT is a little bit misleading.   10* Washington

8* San Francisco (4:05 ET): There's no doubt in my mind as to who has the pitching edge in this rubber match. It's the far better team to begin with - the Giants - who will be sending Johnny Cueto to the bump this afternoon at Coors Field. San Francisco scored 10 runs yesterday, the eighth time already this season that the Rockies have given up that many and with the struggling Chris Rusin going for them, there's a chance that number could go up to nine. The Giants are a perfect 6-0 this season as a road favorite of -150 to -175.

Cueto has simply been one of the best pitchers in baseball thus far. He has a 9-1 team start record, 2.38 ERA and 0.991 WHIP. His one and only loss came over a month ago and the team is a perfect 6-0 his L6 starts. Lately, he's only gotten better w/ B2B complete game efforts against San Diego and last time out he didn't even allow a single run while giving up just two hits. He also didn't allow any runs when he faced Colorado on May 7th. There, he went 8 1/3 innings as the Giants won 2-1.  Cueto now has a 19-inning scoreless streak against Colorado.  Even at Coors, he's been just fine.  Since the last time he faced the Rockies, his ERA is a miniscule 0.81. 

Then, you have Chris Rusin, who has a 7.31 ERA and 2.187 WHIP his last three starts.  That includes allowing a career-worst 13 hits against the Giants on May 5th, a start where he was bailed out big-time by the offense, who scored 17 runs that game. Nothing even close will happen today vs. Cueto, but don't be surprised if the Giants offense puts a similar number on the board today as Buster Posey is 5 for 11 lifetime vs. Rusin and is a .385 lifetime hitter here in Denver w/ 11 HR's.  Visitors are averaging 6.9 rpg while batting above .300 here at Coors Field this season.  8* San Francisco

8* Under Pirates/Rangers (3:05 ET):  I had the Rangers yday and Yu Darvish did not disappoint in his return to the mound, striking out seven in 5 IP as the team rolled to a 5-2 victory.  That was the first loss in the last six games for the Pirates and not coincidentally their lowest scoring game during that time frame as well. Though they've been one of the top offensive teams in all of MLB so far, I expect the Bucs to again struggle at the plate Sunday afternoon as they go up against Martin Perez, who is certainly deserving of better than a 3-7 team start record this year.  Meanwhile, Texas has largely been unable to string together B2B strong days at the plate of late.  Take the Under.

Perez has a 3.13 ERA and 1.326 WHIP for the season, solid numbers, as there's been just two times that he's allowed more than 3 ER in a start.  The southpaw is coming off his best showing of 2016 to date as he blanked the Angels for six innings, allowing just five hits.  In five home starts this season, Perez has a 2.08 ERA. Really, his only "issue" is that in terms of run support, he's near the bottom of MLB w/ only 2.39 per game.  Quite frankly, all I'm looking for here is a "typical" Perez start as five of his last seven have stayed Under the total. The five Unders have all seen five or fewer runs scored.

This will be a battle of southpaws as the Pirates send Francisco Liriano into action. Liriano has made just one bad start (vs. Cubs) over his last five; otherwise he's allowed 2 ER or fewer in the other four.  Last time out, he battled through five walks to allow only one run and two hits as the team won - easily - 12-1 against the Diamondbacks. I highly doubt that Liriano will be getting that much run support again, but I do anticipate him holding up his end of the bargain.  This is a really good number we're getting as well; in fact I was stunned the O/U line would be so high.  8* Under Pirates/Rangers

8* Washington (1:35 ET):  After taking the opener of this four-game set (2-1), the Nationals have dropped B2B games to the Cardinals as their offense continues to struggle. They've put only eight runs on the board this entire series, but fortunately they won't need many today with Stephen Strasburg on the bump. Tied w/ the Cubs' Jake Arrieta for the best team start record in all of baseball (perfect 10-0), Strasburg has a 2.79 ERA and 1.064 WHIP, not to mention 21 K's his L2 starts. He provides his team a clear advantage today over St. Louis, who must turn to the struggling Michael Wacha.

Wacha's last three starts have all been pretty bad. He's lasted only four innings in every time and in the process has allowed 32 runners to reach base and 22 of them to score! That's a 12.00 ERA and 2.667 WHIP, if you're keeping score at home. He comes off what was arguably a career-worst effort where he allowed eight runs in a 12-3 loss to the Cubs on Tuesday, in the process becoming the first Cardinals' pitcher since '07 to lose five straight decisions.  

Meanwhile, the last time the Nats lost w/ Strasburg on the bump was September 9th.  The only two pitchers in baseball w/ a better ERA since June of last year are Arrieta and Clayton Kershaw.  Of course, it helps that the offense has averaged 6.7 runs in his 10 starts this year.  When he faced St. Louis exactly one month ago, Strasburg held them to just two runs across seven innings. He also finished w/ nine strikeouts.  It's clearly a big-time pitching mismatch in this one and the Nats are 24-10 L34 when a home favorite of -175 to -200 on the money line.  8* Washington

5* Arizona (10:10 ET):  When the D'backs shelled out all that money in the offseason for Zack Greinke, I don't think they were envisioning a 4.59 ERA and 1.314 WHIP after 10 starts. Always a dominant pitcher at home throughout his career, Greinke has really struggled to adapt to the more hitter friendly confines of Chase Field in Arizona, but tonight along comes a familiar foe in the form of San Diego and one that he should clearly be able to dominate.

There are some pretty clear signs that Greinke is turning things around. He's allowed 2 ER or fewer in five of his last eight starts and his last time out saw him hold one of the game's better offenses to just one run and five hits over eight innings.  Earlier this year, he held San Diego to just two runs and six hits in 7+ innings and the team got the 3-2 win.  In 13 career starts vs. the Padres, Greinke is 6-1 w/ a 1.64 ERA.  Remember that no team has been shut out more times this season than have the Padres.

Poor starting pitching has burned in Arizona in recent days, but Greinke should change that here. Meanwhile, starting for San Diego here will be Cesar Vargas, who has a 5.02 ERA and 1.954 WHIP in three road starts so far. He hasn't won any of them and in fact is still looking for his first career big league victory overall! He's off his longest outing ever, which could be a problem, and the Padres are just 7-11 off a win this season.  Arizona has typically done a great job at bouncing back from a loss like yday as they are 4-1 this season following a game where they allowed 10 or more runs.  5* Arizona

10* Golden State (9:05 ET):  It hasn't happened often this season, but the Warriors are the underdog for tonight's Game 6 in Oklahoma City. They are 3-1 previously - both straight up and against the spread - when taking points.  They are also 6-1 ATS when down in a playoff series.  It is quite clear that the Thunder were undervalued coming into this series, but that's all changed now and I just don't see the 73-win Warriors going down here.  The outright win is likely, but definitely take the points.

It's important to recall that Golden State led big in Game 1 (wound up losing) and then also in Game 5 (still won and just barely held on for cover).  Yes, both of those games were in Oakland. The two games so far in this series in OKC were both blowouts that went the Thunder's way, but remember that this team has often times struggled to put away opponents, which cost them in the regular season vs. Golden State. Also, the Thunder are just 27-36 ATS after scoring 105+ points and 15-21 ATS after allowing 105+ points. 

I have to think Golden State is going to be better offensively here than they were in either Games 3 or 4.  Their scoring average in this series is about seven points below what it is for the season, so there's clearly room to grow for what was the league's most efficient offense during the regular season.  Defensively, they haven't been as strong as we're used to seeing either and I expect that to change tonight as well.  OKC is just 4-3 SU/3-4 ATS when up in the series during these playoffs.  I think that like Game 5, it is still a great time to "buy low" on the Warriors and "sell high" on the Thunder. 10* Golden State

8* Texas (7:15 ET):  Pittsburgh has now won five in a row after last night's 9-1 victory here in Arlington. But nevertheless, I'll "buck" them here as the Rangers will be sending Yu Darvish to the mound for the first time in 2016.   This will be the first time Darvish has started a game in 22 month, but I don't think he's forgotten how to pitch. That's confirmed by five rehab starts - spread out across Double A & Triple A where posted a 0.90 ERA w/ 21 K's and six walks. 

Pitching for the Pirates here will be Juan Nicasio and his recent results have not been good. Opponents have hit .333 off him this month while his ERA is 6.46.  Remember that he worked almost entirely as a reliever last season, so he'll be limited by a pitch count here as well and in fact his last turn was skipped in the rotation.  The last time we saw him in a full outing, he did not look good at all.  He allowed five runs in five innings and that was against Atlanta, the lowest scoring team in all of baseball. He was quite fortunate that his offense bailed him out in that one.  He won't be as fortunate here.

When a home team is blown out like the Rangers were on Friday, they typically come back strong the following day.  Texas has a winning record off a loss this year and is a strong 16-9 overall at home, including 4-1 as a favorite in the -125 to -150 range.  A big key is that their offense averages 5.3 rpg here, so look for a bounce back at the plate after scoring only one run yday.  Facing the struggling Nicasio helps as well.    8* Texas

9* Real Madrid (2:45 ET):  Real clearly carries the stronger pedigree having won 11 previous Champions League finals while Atletico has never hoisted the trophy.  While calling for a win inside of 90 minutes does carry some risk, Real is favored for a reason and I'm calling for them to get the job done. Yes, Atletico both won going away (1-0 in February) and then drew at home (1-1 in October) in the two previous encounters and finished just one place and two points back of Real in the La Liga Standings. But all that's done is create a situation where the better side is now drastically being undervalued.

When it comes to which side is stronger offensively, there is not even a debate to be had here.  Real scored 110 goals this season, Atletico scored only 63.  Real has more talent, most notably Cristiano Ronaldo who for a sixth consecutive season racked up 50+ goals and is now his club's all-time leading scorer.  Yes, Atletico has been quite stingy throughout the campaign and Ronaldo hasn't scored against them in the last five head to head tries. But don't be surprised if that changes here.  There's also Gareth Bale, who has still managed to scored 19x despite missing significant time due to injury. 

  Real caught fire late in the season, winning 12 straight.  Their last loss came against none other than Atletico and don't think for a second that fact is lost on them.  Last night's winner on the pitch was all about revenge and so too is this one. Many are citing Atletico's more recent bout of success head to head w/ Real as a sign that "times are changing," but I disagree as the favorite is clearly more talented.  9* Real Madrid

10* Under Astros/Angels (10:05 ET): A division matchup, two starting pitchers coming off quality outings and one team that's not hitting at all is the combination of factors that has led me to play the Under in this series opener.  Houston played yday and while they managed to finish off a sweep of Baltimore (at home), the fact is this team isn't hitting much at all of late. All three games with the Orioles stayed Under the total and they've gone seven consecutive games with eight hits over less. As a team they are batting just .174 during this time and scoring 2.3 runs per game w/ no more than four runs scored in any one game.  The Angels are off a high-scoring result on Wednesday, but that was only after two low-scoring games previously. Take the Under.

Houston's current woes at the plate has to be a joyous site to Angels starter Matt Shoemaker, who is coming off an absolutely superb outing, easily his best of the season to date.  He went 7 1/3 innings and gave up all of three hits and finished w/ 12 strikeouts.  He threw 71 of 95 pitches for strikes. The only problem is the offense forgot to score for him and as a result the Halos lost the game, 3-1 to Baltimore.  Speaking of problems, home has generally been unkind thus far to Shoemaker, but I look for that to change tonight.  Houston is hitting only .231 on the road this year.  The Under is 5-2-1 in Shoemaker's last eight home starts.

The Under is also 13-4-2 in the last 19 meetings between these AL West rivals.  The Under is also 7-1 in the Astros' last eight games overall.  As alluded to earlier, Houston's starter Michael Fiers, is also off a quality start, in fact two in a row. Last time out, he allowed only two runs and six hits in seven innings against Texas.  His start before that, he allowed just one run and three hits in seven innings against Cleveland.  Speaking of quality starts, Fiers was a perfect 2 for 2 in that department vs. the Angels last season, holding them to just six runs and 10 hits in 13 2/3 total innings.  I'll look for something similar tonight.  10* Under Astros/Angels

8* Costa Rica (10:00 ET): This is a pre Copa America tuneup and a revenge spot for the Costa Ricans, who fell in sloppy fashion, 1-0, to "La Vinotinto" (in Venezuela) earlier in 2016 as they were down to nine players due to two being sent off w/ red cards.   Historically speaking, the Venezuelans are one of the weaker outfits in CONMEBOL and they're not doing so hot right now when it comes to World Cup qualifying either.  This might be called "friendly," but for Costa Rica it's all about revenge and I suspect they'll get it. 

The last time we saw Costa Rica, they wasted little time getting on the board as they struck in the seventh minute against Jamaica en route to a 3-0 win.  Quite frankly, Venezuela's back line isn't much stronger than Jamaica's is and thus there should be plenty of scoring opportunities for Costa Rica here.  Johan Venegas is one player in particular to watch as he has four goals in his last 15 games played. 

As I alluded to earlier, a big key here for Costa Rica is that they will virtually be at full strength.  That wasn't the case when they lost to Venezuela earlier in 2016.   Tonight is arguably the first time since that HC Oscar Ramirez has had a full compliment of players since taking over the job.  Defensively, this team has been pretty great under Ramirez, conceding just one-half goal per game.  I like for La Sele to really dominate tonight in San Jose.  8* Costa Rica

10* Toronto (8:35 ET):  The Cavs and Raptors have met eight times this season and all eight times the home team has won. Thus, if I have an opportunity to get points with a host, I'm obviously going to take it. I had the Raptors here at home in both Games 3 and 4 when they won by a combined 21 points and covered the spread by a collective 32 points. Yes, they were completely destroyed in Gm 5 at Cleveland, losing by 38, but all that's done is create a situation where we are again able to get tremendous value in Toronto. With their season on the line tonight, I expect the Raptors to fight until the very end. Take the points. '

I'm just going to go back to my analysis for both Games 3 and 4 when it comes to Toronto's home court advantage. The Raptors have now won 8 of 10 home games in the playoffs to up their YTD mark here to 40-11 straight up. That's with a scoring differential of 6.5 points per game.  It's virtually unheard of for a team that's this good at home taking so many points.  Essentially, Toronto is getting the same level of respect that 8-seed Detroit did against Cleveland in Round 1. This despite the fact that the Raptors are now a perfect 4-0 ATS as home dogs of more than 3.5 pts this season, winning all of those games outright!  DeMar DeRozan is one player that really seems to "turn it up a notch" here North of the border as he scored 32 points both Games 3 & 4, bringing his YTD scoring average to 24.8 PPG here at the Air Canada Centre.

Cleveland is only 14-24-1 ATS as a road favorite this year, including 2-7 when laying between 6.5 and 9 points.  Remember that Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love went a combined 4 for 28 from the field the last game here in Toronto. Love, in particular, should decline from his breakout Game 5.  It's amazing that the Cavs continue to be favored here in Toronto given that they are not only 0-4 ATS here, but 0-4 straight up (favored every time).  As a team, Cleveland shot a blistering 57.1% from the field in Gm 5 including 10 of 21 from three-point range.  Those numbers absolutely will come down here.  10* Toronto

8* Washington (7:05 ET):  It's looking more and more like this simply isn't "the Cardinals year."  Yes, they have the impressive run differential (+40), but they continue to hover right around .500 (24-24) as they lost yday here in the Nation's capital. The final score was 2-1 as the club fell to 3-7 in one-run games this season. Normally, I might make a move to call for their luck to turn, but the news keeps going from bad to worse w/ this team as yday saw their hottest hitter leave the game w/ back stiffness. Matt Adams was hitting .383 w/ a .700 slugging percentage since April 28th, so this would potentially be a major loss for a lineup that's already w/o home run and RBI leader Matt Carpenter (paternity list). Washington is 4-0 this season vs. St. Louis.  Make it 5-0 after tonight.

The Nats can now run out Max Scherzer, Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg in successive days, so the rest of this series is not looking good for the Cardinals. St. Louis has scored just three runs in their last three games vs. Washington!  Scherzer was responsible for one of those efforts, tossing seven shutout innings of four-hit ball against the Redbirds back on May 1st.  He followed that up w/ a somewhat disastrous outing vs. the Cubs, but since then has posted an outstanding 0.772 WHIP over the course of three starts w/ a 38-3 KW ratio.  He has a 2.70 ERA in five career starts vs. St. Louis.

On the other hand, we have Cardinals' starter Jaime Garcia, who was beat up for five runs and 10 hits in just 2 1/3 innings his last time out. That was at home against Arizona.  He didn't fare too well against Washington at Busch Stadium either as he took a 6-1 loss there back on April 30th after allowing four runs in 6 1/3 IP.  This is a pitcher with more walks (5) than strikeouts (3) his L2 starts.  That's never a good sign obviously.   Nor is the fact that Bryce Harper may be on his way to fighting out of a prolonged slump as he was the one who hit the GW HR Thursday.  The Nationals are 6-1 this season as home favorites of -150 to -175 and 35-19 in that same price range the L3 years.  8* Washington

10* Seattle (10:05 ET):  Neither of these teams is off to a rousing start, but this is a long trip for the visiting Mystics, who are off an outright win (as six-point underdogs) Saturday in Connecticut.  Thus, I think they are ripe to be beaten by a Seattle team that is favored for the first time in 2016.  The Storm lost, but covered, on Sunday to Minnesota in what was the home opener.  The unbeaten Lynx won 78-71, but it was a 9.5-pt number.  That came on the heels of the Storm winning outright as 11.5-pt pups in Phoenix the previous game. They've had to take on both 4-0 teams thus far (lost to LA in the season opener), so the schedule has been a challenge. Look for them to then dominate this drop in class.

These teams split last year's season series with the home team winning both times.  Washington scored only 59 points in their visit to Key Arena, which was a season-low.  It was also their 10th straight loss here in Seattle.  Given some of the depth issues going on w/ this team, that streak isn't likely to come to an end tonight.  Not only are they missing Ivory Latta (who led the team in scoring in LY's home win over the Storm), but starter Natasha Cloud is out for a third straight game due to illness.

Seattle has had a different leading scorer in every game and I've liked what I've seen so far from #1 overall draft choice Brenna Stewart, who had 23 in her debut and has posted a double double in each of the last two games.  Washington's last game was the first one they didn't allow at least 87 points.   I'm calling for Seattle's best offensive game of the year tonight and given they held the Lynx to eight points in a quarter Sunday, I think defensively they'll be just fine.   10* Seattle

10* Golden State (9:05 ET):  Who would have ever thought we'd be in this position?  The Warriors, who won a record 73 games during the regular season (never once dropping B2B games) now face an elimination game and must win three straight against the red-hot Thunder just to get to the NBA Finals.  For the first time all season, they are off B2B losses as they were blown out in both games at Oklahoma City, losing by a combined 52 points. But now they are back at home, where they outscore opponents by 13 PPG for the season and have lost only three times. They "should" have beaten the Thunder in both Games 1 and 2 here and remember that it was a 27-pt victory in Game 2. Lay the points.

All season long, I've made the case that the Warriors are vastly underrated on the defensive end of the floor.  In the regular season, they finished tied for fourth in efficiency and they're allowing a similar number of points per 100 possessions, ranking 5th overall and tops among remaining teams. But there is no denying they were shredded by the Thunder each of the last two games, giving up a shocking 251 total points.  Look for a return to defensive form tonight, plus I don't see OKC getting to the free throw line w/ such frequency like they have the last two games (66 of 77). 

Offensively, Golden State shot just 41.3% in the two games at OKC and I would expect that number to obviously go up here.  This team led the league in offensive efficiency during the regular season, so coming off its lowest scoring game this postseason, it's poised for massive improvement.  At no point this season have the Warriors been held under 100 pts in consecutive games. In fact, they are 6-2 ATS in this situation, averaging a whopping 121.25 points per game.  That average seems like it would be more than enough to cover here and what's stunning about this run that the Thunder are on is that they came into the playoffs having lost 10 of the 11 games they were an underdog in the regular season.  As a road underdog, they're being outscored by six points per game and are just 4-11 (including playoffs).  10* Golden State

10* Under Lightning/Penguins (8:05 ET): The last four games of the Eastern Conference Finals have all gone Over the total, all w/ at least six goals scored obviously. But with the stakes so high tonight (Game 7!), I see goals being few and far between. Granted, the two Game 7's in the last round were a little higher scoring than expected as one team dominated in both.  But I don't expect this to be a one-sided affair either.  Since 2005, the Under is 22-16-8 in all Game 7's.  Take the Under here.

These teams have played nine times this season. All nine have seen the Penguins outshoot the Lightning, yet the latter has won six times.  That doesn't make any sense to me, nor does the fact that Pittsburgh has dropped five straight Game 7's on home ice.  So that's why I can't endorse them, particularly at this price.  But I still like how goalie Matt Murray performed in Game 6.  After being benched for Game 5, the 22-year old rookie stopped 28 of 30 shots and now has a .924 save percentage in the postseason.  One thing Murray should not have to worry about here is a Tampa Bay power play that ranked 28th in the regular season and is just 2 for 12 in this series.

It's somewhat of a miracle that the Lightning have made it this far, given they are w/o Steven Stamkos and lost goalie Ben Bishop in Game 1.  They haven't been able to hold Pittsburgh under three goals since Bishop went down, but I would not be shocked if they did here.  Remember after losing 5-2 at home to the Rangers in LY's Eastern Conference Finals, they responded by taking Game 7 at Madison Square Garden in a 2-0 shutout.  I know that Andrei Vasilevskiy isn't Ben Bishop, but the Lightning backup netminder still has a .921 save percentage in the series.  Only two of the last 14 meetings between these teams haven't gone Over, so I say we're "due" for things to go the other way as I anticipate both goaltenders stepping up in this winner take all matchup. 10* Under Lightning/Penguins

8* Los Angeles (7:05 ET):  Almost every team has played four games so far, but only two remain unbeaten. One is Los Angeles and they have clearly been the most dominant squad in the league so far, outscoring opponents by an impressive 20.0 points per game.  Tonight marks their fourth straight road game and while that was a problem in 2015, it hasn't been this season as the previous three road games have all been decided by at least seven points, including a 13-pt win in Chicago Tuesday. That win and cover improved them to 4-0 ATS as well and tonight sees the Sparks taking on a pretty weak opponent in Connecticut, who is off an outright loss in the home opener (as six-point favorites) to Washington on Saturday. Lay the points. 

The Sparks' record last year was misleading as Candace Parker missed a good part of the season.  Note that after opening 3-14 in 2015, they closed the regular season by winning 11 of their final 17 games. That has carried over to this year as the team not only leads the league in scoring (91.3 PPG) but also gives up the fewest PPG (71.3).  Parker led the way on Tuesday w/ 26 pts and really the game wasn't as close as the final score indicated as LA led by 21 entering the fourth quarter. They led by double digits for the entirety of the second half despite allowing 50% shooting for the game.

Connecticut's average of 72.7 PPG ranks near the bottom of the league and that has everything to do with their poor shooting marks.  Their 36.6 FG% is a league worst and that includes a woeful 26.3% from three-point range.  The Sun's one victory this year came over the league's lowest scoring team (San Antonio) by only four points. Consider the 76 points they scored last game came w/ overtime. This is clearly their toughest opponent to date, which is reflected in the pointspread, but if there's one thing I've learned about betting this league through the years, it's that the oddsmakers always seem to undersell the gap between the league's best and worst teams.  8* Los Angeles

6* Pittsburgh (12:35 ET): The D'backs and Pirates wrap up a three-game set here at PNC Park Thursday afternoon and I can't see this one going any differently from the first two, which were both won by the home team.  After destroying Arizona 12-1 on Tuesday, it was closer affair last night, but still a win (5-4) for Pittsburgh nonetheless.  The Bucs, who have won 8 of their last 10 overall, are simply the better team here. They are 26-19 w/ a +20 run differential compared to 21-27 w/ a -16 run diff for Arizona.  It's been nine wins in 11 tries for Pittsburgh over the L2 seasons vs. Arizona and they have a clear pitching edge this afternoon.

Gerritt Cole comes in having gone 3-0 w/ a 1.29 ERA his L3 starts overall.  The Pirates ace had an interesting outing his last time out, as he allowed 10 hits over 7 IP and didn't strike anybody out, but allowed just one run (on a solo HR). Stll, 72 of his 109 pitches went for strikes.  That followed eight shutout innings of three-hit ball against the Cubs at Wrigley Field on May 15th.  So, after a bit of a rocky start to the season, clearly Cole seems to have regained LY's form and he has a 3.10 ERA in four career starts vs. the D'backs. As for the strikeouts, we've seen w/ the White Sox Chris Sale this year, that they sometimes can be an overrated statistic. 

The Pirates have outhit the D'backs 27-15 in the two games en route to outscoring them 17-5.  While he's been worse at home compared to on the road, Arizona starter Pat Corbin can't be too happy about facing Pittsburgh yet again. Last month, he gave up four runs in 6 IP as he took an 8-2 loss at Chase Field. The team has won just four of Corbin's nine starts here and overlooked is that the Pirates are among MLB's best offenses right now as they rank 4th in runs scored, 2nd in team batting average and 2nd in OBP.  More often than not, "Getaway Day" favors the home team and that should certainly be the case here today. 6* Pittsburgh

8* Seattle (10:10 ET):  The Mariners pulled the proverbial "rabbit out of the hat" last night, coming back from a 5-2 deficit to win in walk-off fashion.  They scored two runs in both the eighth and ninth innings and now find themselves in an excellent position to take this series from division rival Oakland, who has really been struggling of late. Yes, I did take the A's in Monday's series opener (they won 5-0!), but that is their only win over the last six games and the trend that had seen the road team go 7-0 in A's/M's game this year finally came to an end last night as it was "due" to do.  Though no one is really talking about them much, Seattle has been a really good team this year (+44 run diff is #4 in all of MLB). Go w/ them here.

Hisashi Iwakuma is by no means having a great year for the Mariners. But he dominated this A's lineup when he faced them in Oakland on May 3rd.  There he allowed only one run on four hits over seven innings of work.  That's been par for the course as in his L3 starts vs. Oakland, Iwakuma is 2-0 w/ a 1.33 ERA.  It's not like the A's lineup comes into tonight in "peak form" either as over the last seven days they are batting a collective .220.  They've gone six straight games w/o scoring more than five runs.  Iwakuma is off a quality start, by the way, as he allowed just three runs and six hits over 6 IP at Cincinnati (Seattle won 8-3). 

For Oakland, the rotation now has a major hole in it w/ Sonny Gray going to the disabled list. Granted, Gray wasn't pitching well, but I'm not sure fill-in Zach Neal can be counted upon here as he allowed three runs in his big league debut May 11th as a reliever.  Behind Neal is a pretty terrible bullpen, one that has a 4.06 ERA and has allowed at least one run in four of its past six games.   8* Seattle

9* St. Louis (9:05 ET):  Obviously, the Sharks have a golden opportunity to close things out here on home ice. But I feel it is a huge mistake to write off the Blues.  Yes, they are having goaltending issues at the worst possible time, but remember this team is just two games removed from scoring six times here at "The Tank."  Now they gave up six themselves in a crushing Game 5 loss Monday, but note that was a 3-3 game entering the third period, which is when Jake Allen totally fell apart.  It's looking like it will be back to Brian Elliott between the pipes tonight and I feel that's the right move for HC Ken Hitchcock. Look for St. Louis to avoid elimination and force a deciding Game 7. 

The Blues have actually been better on the road than at home in the playoffs.  Monday's loss dropped them to 4-6 at the Scottrade Center, but they're 6-3 on the road including the aforementioned Game 4 win.  Something I've gone through several times this year is San Jose's unusual home-road dichotomy.  We know they were the best road team in the league during the regular season, but they were shockingly subpar on home ice (below .500). That's changed in the playoffs and I can't say it's a surprise considering the regular season numbers actually suggested they were outplaying opponents here at "The Tank."   But the fact remains they are just 24-25 in all home games this year w/ a save percentage below .900. 

St. Louis needs to start getting more shots on goal. They've averaged just 23.8 per game in the series, but at least they're doing a good job limiting San Jose's number of opportunities (26.6).  Despite the rather small difference in the # of shots on goal per team, the Sharks are somehow averaging a full goal more per game compared to the Blues. Look for Elliott to rectify that discrepancy, however, as he checks in w/ a .934 save percentage on the road.  He was the league leader in GAA during the regular season, after all.  Having played a pair of elimination games (Game 7s) in the first two rounds, Elliott was outstanding, stopping 62 of 65 shots.  This is a great price on the team that opened as the series favorite. The BLues are 2-0 this postseason when down in the series. 9* St. Louis

10* Under Raptors/Cavaliers (8:35 ET):  I said it before Game 3, but far too many people were quick to write Toronto off in this series after they lost both games in Cleveland.  Sure enough, they've responded by producing B2B outright wins at home (I was on them both times). Now, despite a seemingly generous number from the oddsmakers here, I can't quite "pull the trigger" a third straight time as the series now shifts back to Cleveland for Game 5. But I am confident that we'll see a low scoring game here, thus Under is the call, as the Cavaliers offensive regression should continue and we saw how poorly the Raptors shot the ball in the first two games.

Cleveland had produced historical efficiency at the offensive end through the first two series and then shot better than 50% in both Games 1 and 2 vs. Toronto. But when they went "North of the border," they cooled off rather dramatically, particularly from three-point range where they went a combined 27 of 82.  That is a staggering number of attempts, and quite frankly way too many when you consider that the chances of them matching the level of shooting we saw vs. Atlanta range from "slim to none."  Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love were also both terrible the L2 games. Now, I know a case could be made for improvement based on the fact the Cavs are returning home. But note that other than Games 1 and 2 of this series, the team has actually shot better than 50% only one other time in these playoffs! The historically great three-point shooting we saw in the last series simply is unlikely to return.

Now Toronto is coming off its best shooting effort of the entire postseason (53.8 FG%), so I project them to decline offensively here as well. Especially now that they're back on the road. The Raptors might have seen five of their last seven games go Over the total, but in the playoffs, their games are averaging just under 190 PPG.  That has a lot to do w/ them shooting a woeful 42.2% from the field overall.  Since winning Game 3 of the Indiana series, 101-85, this team has scored more than 91 points only one time in its last seven road games.  The Under is 27-13 L40 times they have been off a SU dog win, including 11-4 this season. 10* Under Raptors/Cavaliers

10* Milwaukee (7:10 ET):  Very little was expected from either of these two clubs in 2016 and in that regard, neither has "disappointed."  But while the Brew Crew may not be the most tantalizing "take" on the board on a nightly basis, the Braves have been a special kind of brutal this season, particularly at Turner Field where they've gone a mind-numbing 2-18 to this point.  That includes a 2-1 loss here in yday's series opener, a game which featured very little hitting.  Thus, with neither lineup in "peak form," this one likely comes down to the starting pitching matchup and in that regard, it's a big edge for the Brewers w/ Junior Guerra on the mound.  It's nice to not have to lay a lot of juice against the hapless Braves.

His last time out, Guerra beat the Cubs as he posted a season-high in strikeouts (11).  That came on the heels of another dominant performance, this one vs. San Diego, where he threw six scoreless innings of two-hit ball.  The team is now 4-0 in his four starts this season. Facing the Braves, who have scored the fewest runs in all of baseball to this point, should not be a problem. Atlanta's 138 runs scored this season are at least 20 fewer than every other team, but one (Phillies).  They are actually averaging fewer than 3.0 rpg here at home.

Now Milwaukee might need to do a little bit more at the plate themselves after totaling just two runs on five hits last night.  Fortunately, there's a good chance that Atlanta starter Mike Foltynewicz will comply.  Not only did Foltynewicz (say that three times fast!) allow five runs in just three innings in his last start, but that was the second time he's allowed at least four while not making out of the fourth innings in three overall tries.  Note that the Braves have not won a single series at home all year. They are also 8-23 off a loss.    10* Milwaukee

8* Chi Cubs (1:45 ET):  The Cubs ended their longest losing streak of the season (three games) yday, in emphatic fashion, via a 12-3 win here in St. Louis.  Of course, even if they had lost, there's a very good chance that said losing streak would have ended here at four games because it's once again time for Jake Arrieta to toe the rubber.  Obviously though, you like to see the club coming into this afternoon's series finale in top form as it was basically "over from the start" on Tuesday w/ the Cubs scoring six runs in the top of the 1st and never looking back after that.  Similar routs have been routine w/ Arrieta pitching this year as the team has outscored opponents by a stunning 72-14 margin in his nine starts, which accounts for basically half of their MLB-best +118 run differential. I expect nothing less than a stellar outing from Arrieta here (why wouldn't I?) and another dominant Cubs victory. 

St. Louis is actually top five in the league in run differential, but that number took a big hit w/ yday's loss. It figures to take another hit today w/ Carlos Martinez on the bump. When pitching opposite Arrieta, the margin for error is obviously so slim, but lately Martinez has not demonstrated that he would even be up to the challenge here.  Over his last three starts, Martinez has a 6.08 ERA and 1.80 WHIP and those kind of numbers basically guarantee defeat going against Arrieta.  Worse yet, he hasn't made it past the fifth inning in any of those last three starts. The team has lost each of the last four times he's taken the mound w/ him giving up more runs in that time frame that Arrieta has all year. 

It's been a very long time since we've seen a pitcher perform as well as Arrieta has over such a sustained period. The Cubs have won his last 22 regular season starts w/ Arrieta going 19-0 w/ a 0.86 ERA.  This year, he is 8-0 in his nine starts, producing a 1.29 ERA and 0.841 WHIP.  Four different times, he hasn't allowed a single run, including his no-hitter back on April 21st.  He's gone 29 consecutive starts w/o allowing more than 3 ER!  At this price, Arrieta is simply too good to pass up. 8* Chi Cubs

10* Golden State (9:05 ET):  Needless to say, the Warriors have hit a major speedbump in their pursuit of history. Down 2 games to 1 in this series, they were absolutely embarrassed in Game 3 as they lost by a stunning 28 pt margin. They trailed by 37 entering the fourth quarter in what ended up being "only" their second worst loss of the season (lost 137-105 in Portland on Feb 19). But if there's one thing we know about this team, it's they have an incredible ability to bounce back from a defeat. They haven't lost B2B games at any point this season as off a loss they've gone a perfect 12-0 straight up (8-3-1 ATS), winning by an average margin of 16 points per game! Great opportunity to "buy low" on the defending Champs.

Game 2 saw Golden State off a loss and they won by 28 points. This is now the first time they've lost multiple times in the same series since LY's NBA Finals. Note that while they are now 0-3 SU/ATS in Game 3's during this year's postseason, they bounced back nicely in Game 4 victories over Houston and Portland, winning those games by a combined 34 points.   Consider they are also 36-3 straight up this season after a game where they failed to cover the spread.  Tonight's number is so low, that a SU win w/o covering is highly unlikely. When down in a playoff series, this team is a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS its last five.

Draymond Green not being suspended here is a really big deal for the Warriors as well.  I see no way he won't improve upon a dreadful Game 3 where he shot 1 of 9 from the floor and finished with only six points. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are both likely to improve upon their combined 15 of 36 effort from Game 3, which included 5 of 19 from three-point range.  Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is just 1-3 ATS off its previous four SU wins as a dog this season.  I do not see them matching their 50% shooting from Game 3 nor do I envision another 33 of 37 performance from the free throw line forthcoming.  Durant and Westbrook alone were a combined 20 of 34 from the floor and 21 of 23 from the FT line.  Those percentages won't be duplicated. 10* Golden State

10* Under Penguins/Lightning (7:05 ET): What a stunning turn of events we've witnessed in this series. Without their top goaltender, Tampa Bay has taken the last two games (by identical final scores of 4-3), the last one coming in overtime.  The Lightning overcame an early 2-0 deficit on the road and forced overtime with a late goal (3:16 remaining).  Now, they can clinch the series on home ice. But there is the matter that in eight matchups this season, the 'Ning have yet to outshoot the Pens a single time and they are not only still w/o Ben Bishop, but Steven Stamkos as well.  I just don't trust TB in this spot, but I do look for a low-scoring game.  Therefore, take the Under.

It's obviously a big deal to get an O/U line of 5.5 here.  Thus, I would make sure to get your bet in, sooner rather than later, to ensure the best line. But note the play is still valid even if the number dips to 5.0.  On the road, if the total is 5.5, Pittsburgh is 10-4 Under.   At home, with a 5.5, the Under is 9-5 for Tampa Bay.   While the last three games in this series have all gone Over, that sets us up well here as Pittsburgh is 5-2 Under this season when coming off three consecutive Overs.  Tampa Bay is 6-3 in the same situation.  They are also 4-1 Under in this year's playoffs when up in the series.

There's obviously a big focus on the goaltenders in this series with Andrei Vasilevskiy replacing Bishop.  Vasilevskiy has turned in a solid .919 save percentage and has faced an incredible # of shots in the series (Pittsburgh averaging 39.2 per game).  Those shot totals are due to decrease moving forward.  As for Pittsburgh, they have a decision to make between Marc-Andre Fleury and Matt Murray.  Whomever they go with should do just fine if the Lightning's average of 26.2 shots per game holds up.  Remember both of these teams ranked in the top six in goals allowed and top seven in penalty killing during the regular season.  The respective power plays have both been non-factors in this series and I expect that to continue tonight.  10* Under Penguins/Lightning

6* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET):  Yes, Chris Sale is pitching and that means a high price on the White Sox, but it's totally justifiable here considering his perfect 9-0 record, 1.58 ERA and 0.717 WHIP.  I played Sale his last time out as well and he responded by going the distance again (third time this season), allowing only one run on four hits against Houston.  It was the second consecutive start he turned in a complete game w/o walking a single batter (15-0 KW ratio). Tonight, he'll be opposed by another unbeaten pitcher - Josh Tomlin - but his ERA over his L3 starts (4.05) indicates a bit of a decline, plus unlike Sale, Tomlin has not actually won every start (6-0 in seven outings). I'm siding with the better pitcher at home here.

These teams played a doubleheader yesterday and ended up splitting the games while Chicago winning Game 1 and Cleveland taking Game 2.  The Indians can no longer catch the White Sox for first place in the division by series' end (2.5 games back) and weren't likely to anyway as they knew they'd be facing Sale on Tuesday.  They did score three times against Sale here at US Cellular Field back on April 9th, but since that time Sale hasn't allowed more than 2 ER in any start and has given up one or zero six times. He has a WHIP of 0.56 his L3 starts due to only putting on 14 baserunners in 26 IP.  

Tomlin has benefited greatly from run support his last five outings and while the Indians have averaged nearly seven full runs per game over their last nine contests, they'll be lucky if they even get to half of that average here tonight. Consider that three times this year Tomlin has allowed at least four runs, meaning in three starts he's allowed nearly as many runs as Sale has given up all season!  Betting against Sale right now is simply a foolish proposition.  6* Chi White Sox

    

8* Run Line Toronto (7:05 ET):  Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Blue Jays +1.5.  Thanks to a five-game win streak, the Yankees have moved up to third place in the American League East after spending most of the season in last.  The basement in the division is now occupied by Toronto, who has lost six of its last nine. But they still have a better YTD run differential than New York and took two of three from their pinstriped rivals earlier in the season. The Jays also have a better record on the road than at home this year. I see them doing no worse than a one run loss here.

Tonight's starting pitchers have very similar numbers over their last three starts. Toronto's RA Dickey has a 2.57 ERA and 0.952 WHIP.  The Yankees' Nathan Eovaldi is at 2.84 and 0.895.  But there is one major difference between the two during that time and that's the respective records as Dickey is 1-2 and Eovaldi is 3-0.  Granted, Dickey's good numbers are largely based on one outstanding outing when he went eight innings against Texas and didn't give up any runs (only three hits). But in the other two, he was hurt by three unearned runs and a lack of run support (Toronto scored only five times).  I expect the knuckleballer to perform well tonight considering he has a 1.80 ERA his last eight starts against the Yankees.

While New York just pulled off a four-game sweep in Oakland over the weekend, Toronto took three of four in Minnesota, including a win Sunday. That was a much needed bounce back for the Jays after they got swept at home by Tampa Bay.  As I mentioned earlier, they have a better record on the road (13-11) than at home (9-13) and they also have slightly outscored opponents this year (+2) while the Yankees still have a run differential of -19.  A 4-10 record in one-run games has really hurt the Jays this season, but taking the RL eliminates that issue altogether. I'm still surprised to see how Toronto's offense - which lapped the rest of MLB in 2015 - has struggled this year. But the Yankees have actually been much worse at the plate, ranking 25th in runs scored and the potential return of A-Rod is not going to cure that.  8* Run Line Toronto (+1.5)

    

10* Chicago (7:05 ET): These teams were on opposite ends of comebacks on Saturday. Los Angeles made an improbable rally in New York, coming back from eight points down in the final 65 seconds to force overtime, where they would go on to win 79-72. Meanwhile, Chicago was up nine in the second half at Atlanta, but ended up losing by six.  Ironically, the Sky are 0-2 since Ellena Della Donne returned, but I see them bouncing back with a big win tonight as they return home for a big TV game Tuesday night. For the visiting Sparks, this will be their third consecutive road game over a five-day span.  Take the points.

Los Angeles was a lock to improve this year as last year's team was besieged by injury and got off to a slow start. But at 3-0 SU/ATS, I think we've reached a point where we should look to "sell high" on them.  The Sparks did win their first two games by 30 points each, but they clearly should have lost last time out and I'm not sure they should be favored here.  Granted, they were favored in each of their two previous road games, but trips like this tend to take a toll and I feel the time has now come for the Sparks to drop one. There was no way this team was going to continue its hot shooting from the first two games (right around 55%!) and sure enough they shot only 35% against the Liberty.

Chicago figures to get a greater contribution from Della Donne here as she's scored only 16 points against Atlanta on Saturday.  As I said earlier, things were going really well for the Sky (led by nine in the second half), that was until a dreadful stretch where they missed 11 of 14 shots and turned the ball over five times.  I can't see something like that happening again tonight as they are back at home and will desperately want to atone for their last performance here in Chicago, that being a 17-point loss to Minnesota.  This is an opportunity to take advantage of misleading results - on both sides - from the last game respectively.  10* Chicago

    

8* New York (11:05 AM ET): The Liberty come off their first loss of the season, 79-72 as 1.5-pt dogs at Los Angeles and it was a shocker as they blew an eight-point lead with just 1:05 remaining.  So, I anticipate they'll be highly motivated as they take the floor at home this morning against an opponent they traditionally beat. Atlanta is 2-1 themselves & off an outright win over Chicago (87-81 as 4.5-pt dogs). Their other win this year came in overtime. But don't look for any kind of upset here. As I just alluded to, the Liberty have really owned this Eastern Conference rivalry, taking seven of the last eight matchups.  Three of their four wins over the Dream last year were by at least nine points. Lay the number here.

I anticipate the Liberty will shoot better here than they did vs. Los Angeles where they finished the game 33.7% from the floor. Atlanta gave up 94 points in regulation their last road game.  Defense has not been an issue for New York as they've held all three opponents this year below 36 percent shooting.  This is nothing new as last season they held opponents under 40% for the year here at MSG.  They held Atlanta to just 38.1% in the five meetings last year.

The Dream have lost four straight times here at the Garden.  Coming off a SU dog win over Chicago, I would anticipate a let down taking place here as Atlanta had to rally back from nine-point deficit in the second half and this is obviously an early start time to boot.   The Sky at one point missed 11 of 14 field goal attempts and turned it over five times in a disastrous stretch.  On the road last year, the Dream went just 6-11 SU, giving up 85.2 PPG (-6.0 PPG).  8* New York

8* San Francisco (10:15 ET):  For Seattle-Oakland, there was a 6-0 trend in favor of the road team.  Over here in the NL, there's a much different 6-0 trend in play for San Diego-San Francisco. The Giants are 6-0 vs. their division rival this year and I don't see them losing for a first time tonight as Johnny Cueto will be on the hill and the team is red hot overall (10-1 L11). Normally, I might cite a team coming off the Sunday night game as being at a disadvantage, but that's clearly been mitigated here as the Padres went 17 innings Sunday (and lost).  Look for this division rivalry to remain one-sided.

Cueto has been outstanding for the Giants so far. He's 6-1 w/ a 2.70 ERA and 1.095 WHIP and has only gotten hotter of late.  This will be his second straight outing against San Diego and last week saw him deliver a complete game at Petco Park while allowing just four hits.  That was his second CG this year against the Padres and the one here at AT&T Park was even more dominant as it was a shutout w/ 11 strikeouts.  Cueto has now gone at least eight innings w/ allowing one or no runs three times in his last five starts overall. He's 6-1 w/ a 1.67 ERA and 54 K's his last seven starts vs. the Padres.

Drew Pomeranz will once again oppose Cueto tonight and I'll concede to you that he's been an unlucky pitcher of late.  In his last four starts, the offense has scored a grand total of four runs for him. Then again, that can't be too surprising considering San Diego is 29th in slugging, 30th in OBP and 30th in team batting average. Still though, it's sad to see a pitcher go only 2-2 over a four-start stretch where his ERA is 1.13. But the real problem for Pomeranz and the Padres in this situation is that the team's bullpen was taxed yday (six relievers used) and Pomeranz has gone seven innings in only one of his eight starts this year.  I just don't see the road team having a lot in the tank tonight and that's a problem against a red hot pitcher and red hot team in general.  8* San Francisco.

9* Oakland (10:10 ET):  Very different weekends for these two AL West teams. Oakland was swept at home by the Yankees, while Seattle swept the Reds in Cincinnati. However, if that and history is any indication, then homefield is no advantage in this series. Six times these teams have met this year. The road team has won every time!  The Mariners have not been a good home team period this year, going 8-10 at Safeco Field while hitting a collective .218. They scored just four runs when they were swept here by the A's back in April.

The pitching edge lies with Oakland for tonight's series opener.  They have Rich Hill going. Since allowing four runs (two unearned) in his first start of 2016, he has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any of his last eight.  He's allowed 2 ER in five of his last six.  When he pitched here in Seattle back on April 9th, he allowed just one run and five hits in six innings of work.  He also finished w/ 10 strikeouts.  Over his L3 starts overall, Hill has a 3-0 team start record and a 0.967 WHIP.  He's also 5-0 in five road starts w/ a 1.76 ERA and 0.978 WHIP.

Meanwhile, Seattle's Taijuan Walker has been trending in much different direction. He has gone 0-3 w/ a 5.09 ERA over his last four starts. He was by no means terrible when he faced Oakland in his first start of the year as he allowed only two runs in six innings. But he did give up seven hits, one of them a home run.  The long ball has been a problem for Walker of late w/ five allowed in his last three starts. The bottom line is that the Mariners come into this series overvalued off a sweep of a terrible team. The opposite can be said for Oakland, who is in a "buy low" situation after losing four straight at home.  9* Oakland

8* Toronto (8:35 ET):   As you already know, I had Toronto in Game 3.  My rationale for backing them again tonight is essentially the same.  Cleveland losing was bound to happen sooner or later as the fact is their defense hasn't been very good throughout the playoffs and offensively they could only regress.  To quote my own previous writing, "on the road is where you'd expect to see the decrease in productivity.  They (the Cavs) average about 4.8 PPG less on the road than they do at home (that's over the course of the season)."  Then there's the value of the home court to the Raptors, something that I believe is being drastically undersold by the linesmakers and public alike.  Take the points.

The Raptors have now won seven of nine home games in the playoffs to up their YTD mark here to 39-11 straight up. That's with a scoring differential of 6.6 points per game.  Again, I'll reference my analysis from the last game and point out that it's virtually unheard of for a team that's this good at home taking so many points.  Essentially, Toronto is getting the same level of respect that 8-seed Detroit did against Cleveland in Round 1. This despite the fact that they are now a perfect 3-0 ATS as home dogs of more than 3.5 pts this season, winning all of those games outright!  DeMar DeRozan is one player that really seems to "turn it up a notch" here North of the border as he scored 32 points in Game 3, bringing his YTD scoring average to 24.8 PPG here at the Air Canada Centre. 

Cleveland, meanwhile, was nowhere close to its super hot shooting from the first two games in Game 3.  They finished at just 34.1% from the floor and jacked up 41 three-pointers.  Again, I'll go back to my analysis from the last game and point out that the Cavs are now just 14-23-1 ATS as a road favorite this year, including 0-3 when laying five or more in the playoffs. But the new concern for Cavaliers bettors is that the team is 0-6 ATS in 2015-16 after they scored 85 pts or less the previous game (they scored 84 in Gm 3)! Obviously, you'd expect both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love (combined 4 for 28!) to play better here, but I'm suspicious that improvement from them alone can account for more than a 20-point swing, which is what they'd need to do to cover.  Take the points. 8* Toronto

10* Under Sharks/Blues (8:05 ET): So, after cashing the Over in Game 4, I'm back to the Under here for Game 5.  It was certainly a much different story for St. Louis on Saturday than it was the previous two games where they were shutout. They scored six goals, two in every period, and wasted little time getting started w/ the first one coming six minutes into the game. It was 4-0 after two periods. But, I seriously question if they can be that "dominant" again as two of their goals came via the power play (was 1 for 9 previously in the series) and they added another short-handed. While the goaltender storyline was a bit overplayed (Jake Allen still allowed three goals), it did seem to provide a spark and Allen should be better here.

What happened to Martin Jones in the last game? The Sharks' goaltender was red-hot coming into Game 4, off B2B shutouts and three in his last four games. His save percentage had been .978 dating back to Game 7 of the Nashville series.   But he got chased in Game 4 after giving up four goals on only 19 shots. I absolutely expect a bounce back performance from him tonight.  As for the Blues offensively, I already went through the three goals they scored on special teams and overall they've averaged just 23.4 shots per game dating back to Game 7 of their last series.  So w/ Jones likely to play better, the fact they aren't getting a ton of 5 on 5 scoring chances could end up biting them here.

Allen made 31 saves Saturday in his first start in place of the ineffective Brian Elliott.  In my analysis for Game 4, I made mention that more often than not this year, the Over cashed when Allen was between the pipes (now 15-6). Well, it's a much different story here on home ice where the Under is 13-4 in Allen starts. The Under is also 14-8 this year when the team is off a multi-goal victory.  The only two times in the last eight games that the Over has cashed for St. Louis is when they scored six goals themselves. That simply isn't likely to happen here, so Under is the call. 10* Under Sharks/Blues

8* Washington (7:05 ET):  The Nationals took two of three from the Mets last week. They followed that up by taking two of three from the Marlins over the weekend and now have a 1.5 game edge over New York, who is off a sweep of Milwaukee.  However, while relatively close in the standings, run differential is solidly in favor of the Nats (+56 to +26) and I give them a big edge in tonight's series opener at home. Gio Gonzalez may not be the most heralded member of this starting rotation, but he has been outstanding nonetheless. He's allowed 1 ER or less in six of his eight starts overall. That includes a 7-1 win over the Mets last Wednesday when he went 6 1/3 innings and allowed just five hits. Once again opposing him will be Bartolo Colon here. I expect the result to be the same.

Gonzalez has traditionally saved some of his best work for the Mets. He's 10-4 in 18 starts against them.  Really, he has dominated all NL East opponents, going 7-1 w/ a 1.38 ERA in 15 starts and has never allowed more than 2 ER! Over the last four starts overall, two of which came against the Mets and Marlins, he's a perfect 4-0 w/ a 0.97 ERA.  So, clearly, this is a pitcher is in top form right now. Colon, meanwhile, has a 6.06 ERA and 1.469 WHIP his L3 starts. He lasted only 4 2/3 innings opposite Gonzalez and gave up three runs while walking five batters. He allowed five runs, including a pair of homers in five innings of work his start before that, which was against the Dodgers.

The Mets offense is really struggling now. Though they swept Milwaukee over the weekend, it was hardly dominant. Two of the wins were by one-run and they didn't score more than five runs in any game.  They've now gone 14 consecutive games w/o scoring more than five runs.  The Nats, on the other hand, are 4-1 in their last five games and have outscored opponents 28-5 in the four wins. The only loss was a one-run game.  This price range suggests that Washington is in good shape as they are a perfect 5-0  as a home favorite of -150 to -175.   8* Washington

10* Under Lightning/Penguins (8:05 ET): I took a chance on Tampa Bay in Game 4 and they came through for me, winning at home by a score of 4-3. They actually led 4-0 entering the third period, but wound up being outshot (again!) by the Penguins. In the seven games played this season, the Lightning have yet to outshoot Pittsburgh a single time. So with things moving back to the Steel City, obviously you still have to favor the Pens, but I just can't endorse them in this price range. However, I do like the Under quite a bit here as both goalies should play better than what we saw on Friday night. 

Game 1 of this series marks the only head to head meeting this year where these teams stayed Under the total. I was on the Under there as Tampa Bay surprised w/ a 3-1 win. Pittsburgh has averaged more than 35 shots per game in the series, putting a ton of pressure on TB backup goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, who was already in a tough spot trying to fill Ben Bishop's skates.  But Vasilevskiy still has a .928 save percentage in the series and did shut out the Penguins for the first two periods in Game 4. I think that what happened in the third period might have been a case of just "letting up."  Though 10 of the last 12 meetings have gone Over the total, you have to believe that we're "due" for an Under here.

Penguins goalie Matt Murray was the breakout star of the team for the first two rounds, but only has an .889 save percentage in this series. I expect him to play better moving forward, especially tonight.  Tampa Bay has generally struggled to get the puck on the net in this series and in the first two games here in Pittsburgh, they finished w/ only 41 total shots.  One thing you absolutely have to like so far is that the Penguins haven't taken a lot of penalties in this series (only eight) and it's not like they really should worry about a Lightning power play which ranked 28th in the league during the regular season. I'm calling for this to be the lowest scoring game of the series so far.  10* Under Lightning/Penguins

10* San Francisco (8:05 ET):  The Cubs have slowed down rather considerably over their L10 games, going just 4-6. Two of those four wins came in games started by Jake Arrieta, including Friday's series opener here in San Francisco.  But they lost last night, 5-3, and tonight represents a rare instance of them not being favored on the money line (just 5th time all season!) as the Giants are the hottest team in baseball right now and will have their ace Madison Bumgarner toeing the rubber. I believe that I've yet to play against the Cubs in 2016, but that changes on Sunday Night Baseball.  Take the Giants.

San Francisco has won 9 of their last 10 games. Having to go w/ Jake Peavy and Matt Cain in the first two games of this series seemed to put them at a distinct disadvantage and while the Peavy start went as expected (lost opposite Arrieta), Cain was able to turn in six really solid innings last night where he gave up just the one run. Tonight, the pitching matchup is finally in the Giants favor as Bumgarner has been red hot (1.69 ERA L6 starts) w/ the team winning the last five times he's taken the baseball.  Last time out, Bumgarner went the distance and allowed just one run (on a solo HR) and five hits while striking out 11 and walking no one. He is 3-0 w/ a 1.95 ERA his L4 starts against the Cubs.

Helping Bumgarner's cause even further is the fact that the Cubs have scored three runs or less in five of their last six games. There's a good chance that it will be six out of seven after tonight.  Except for Friday, the Giants have not allowed more than three runs in any of their last nine games.  This puts tremendous pressure on Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks, who is one of the weaker cogs in the starting rotation to begin with. The team is down 4.7 units w/ him on the mound this year and he has the rotation's second highest ERA and WHIP.  His last two starts have resulted in losses to bottom feeders San Diego and Milwaukee, which is not a good sign when getting set to face a fellow division leader.  This is one of the rare times when the Cubs absolutely should not be favored to win. 10* San Francisco

    

8* Golden State (8:05 ET):  It seems like "forever ago" that the Warriors bounced back and evened this series up at one game apiece w/ a convincing 118-91 Game 2 victory. After three days off, the series now shifts to Oklahoma City. Interestingly, three of Golden State's 12 losses this year have come in situations where they had three or more days off between games. But I don't see that happening here and considering what we saw Wednesday night, I have no problem laying what is a very small number. Remember that the Warriors did lead by double digits at halftime in Game 1 before romping to victory in Game 2.  If not for the fourth quarter meltdown in Gm 1, they would be a perfect 5-0 vs. Thunder this year.

Oklahoma City is just 4-13 SU this season as an underdog. Only one of the games this year vs. Golden State has come here at home and that was the famous one where Steph Curry buried the half court shot at the end of regulation and the Warriors went on to win 121-118 in overtime (as three-point favorites).  The Thunder have been outscored in six of the eight quarters in the series and I just don't see the Warriors playing as poorly as they did in the second half of Game 1 yet again.  I mentioned earlier that Golden State has been surprisingly mediocre when taking the court w/ three or more days rest, but OKC has actually been a little worse, going just 2-3 SU/ATS in that situation.

While the Thunder have not dropped B2B games this postseason, the Warriors have suffered two losses in a three game span only twice - all season.  They absolutely deserve to be favored in this spot considering a +14.1 efficiency rating in the playoffs (OKC is +6.1).   The difference in actual scoring differential is identical (+8.0 PPG for the Warriors), so to me this line probably should be -5.  That little bit of value is enough for me to side w/ what has been the best team in basketball all season long. You won't find the Warriors in this price range very often, so take advantage.  8* Golden State

10* St. Louis (2:10 ET): The Cardinals evened this series up at a game apiece w/ a 6-2 win Saturday. The key was hitting three home runs and starter Mike Leake gave them seven scoreless innings.  Arizona didn't even score until the top of the ninth. For today's rubber match, it will Zack Greinke vs. Jaime Garcia. While Greinke may have the slightly better TSR (team start record) here (5-4 vs. 4-4), Garcia has pitched better according to both ERA (2.86 to 5.08) and WHIP (1.033 to 1.394).  While Greinke has actually struggled more at his new home (Chase Field) than on the road, this is an offense that already lit him up once this year (7 runs and 11 hits).  I'm on the Redbirds in today's rubber match.

This has been a bit of a frustrating season for the Cardinals. They own MLB's third best run differential (+55), yet are just 23-20 and one-half game behind the Pirates, who are just +5. After going a perfect 7-0 vs. the D'backs last season (12-1 L2 years), they've only managed to split six games this year.    But "true to form," they've outscored them by five runs in those six games and that's despite losing 12-7 when Garcia faced Greinke back on April 25th. I already talked about how Greinke really struggled that day.  Garcia was by no means great (allowed four runs in 5 IP), but that's the most runs he's allowed in any start this year.  Over his L3 starts, Garcia has posted a 1.42 ERA and 0.842 WHIP.

Unless they are facing a lefty, St. Louis has had little problem scoring runs this year as they are second in runs scored. They are also fifth in team batting average, fourth in OBP and second in slugging.  In just the last three games, they've scored 26 runs while batting a collective .308.   This being a day game certainly seems to favor the home team as they are 9-5 this season in that situation (72-52 L3 seasons) while Arizona is 4-7 in day games this season (42-64 L3 seasons). Against lefties, the D'backs are just 4-7 (in 2016) and 38-54 the L3 seasons.  Only four teams have allowed more runs than Arizona has (Minnesota, Oakland, Milwaukee and Cincinnati) this year.  Greinke got away with allowing the seven runs the last time he saw this lineup; he won't be as fortunate today. 10* St. Louis

8* Washington (1:10 ET): Saturday, I was actually on Miami and they came through for me as Jose Fernandez improved to a remarkable 21-1 all-time at home. Fernandez obviously won't be pitching today, but Max Scherzer will, and thus "shifting sides" to the Nationals seems like the logical move. After his 20-strikeout performance on May 11th (vs. Detroit), Scherzer pitched well again on Tuesday, but the offense failed to score for him in a 2-0 loss.  Incredibly, the only four runs allowed by Scherzer over those two starts have come via solo home runs. Assuming that issue is corrected, I see no reason why he can't mow down the Marlins here. His KW ratio in just the last two games is 30-3.

Going into yday's game, Washington had won three straight and Miami had lost three straight. Obviously, the key there was Fernandez, who finished w/ 13 K's in six innings. However, the Marlins didn't actually take the lead until the bottom of the sixth and were fortunate to escape a bases loaded w/ no outs situation in the top of the ninth. Instead of facing Fernandez, here it will be Adam Conley, who struggled against the Nats earlier this year. He gave up four runs in a 7-0 loss, working 6 2/3 innings.  While Conley got away w/ giving up just one run over six innings in his last start, he did allow eight hits and that was against a weak-hitting team vs. the Phillies.  Washington is 5-1 vs. lefty starters this season.

On the run suppression side of the ledger, the Nats have allowed a total of just eight runs their last five games.  Miami has managed just four in the last two games and has not scored more than three in any of their last four. I expect Scherzer to keep that streak alive.  As a home underdog of +150 or less (which they are here), the Marlins are only 1-7 this season. They are also just 4-8 in day games. While separated by only 3.5 games in the NL East, the respective run differentials tell a very different story with these two teams as the Nats are +50 for the year while the Marlins are actually -5.  Fernandez himself was enough to justify a play on the home team yday, but w/o him on the mound, there is no denying that Washington is just the better team here. 8* Washington

10* Over Dodgers/Padres (10:10 ET):  Spacious Petco Park has long been a place conducive to the Under, but last year saw 45 of the Padres' 81 home games go Over the total. (San Diego was actually the top Over team in all of baseball, by a wide margin, as they went 94-62-6 Over in all games).  This year has seen a bit of a return to previous form as the team is 23-19-1 Under in all of its games, but the Over actually has a winning mark (12-10-1) here at Petco.  It was a 7-6 Padres win in yday's series opener with the Dodgers and I believe we will see another relatively high-scoring affair tonight.  Take the Over. 

Looking over recent results for both teams, the Dodgers are actually an opponent that the Padres were probably happy to see pop up on the schedule.  For starters, they avoid Clayton Kershaw this weekend and the Dodgers' rotation simply hasn't been that good beyond their ace.  Since Kershaw last started, the Dodgers have allowed a total of 23 runs in the last three games. Even though they've been shut out more times than any other team and held to only one run in all three games vs. the Giants, we saw what the Padres were able to do last night as they homered three times, the last of which was a walk-off.  The Over is now 4-0 in the Dodgers' last four games w/o Kershaw on the mound with them allowing at least seven runs in every game.

Alex Wood now takes his turn in the Dodgers' rotation and he simply has not been very good this year on the road.  He's 0-3 in four starts there with an 8.05 ERA and 1.842 WHIP.  His last two starts have come at home, which is why recent numbers look pretty good, but there hasn't been a single time on the road this year that he's given up fewer than five runs and as a result the Over has gone 4-0. The Padres counter w/ Cesar Vargas, who is winless over his last three starts thanks to a 5.40 ERA and an unsightly 1.867 WHIP.  His last start was the first time all season that he didn't walk anyone; in fact, he'd walked exactly three batters in each of his first four starts. It's probably not fair that Vargas is still winless in his five starts, but he's yet to last longer than six innings.  That's a problem when the San Diego bullpen has a 5.15 ERA at home. 10* Over Dodgers/Padres

10* Toronto (8:35 ET):  Most are now simply considering it a formality that Cleveland will advance to a second straight NBA Finals. I admit that it certainly hasn't looked good for Toronto in the last two games.  They've lost by a combined 50 points and while this has been the franchise's most successful playoff run ever (1st ever Conference Finals appearance), the truth of the matter is they haven't been very impressive as they've actually been outscored (by about 3 PPG) and are just 3-10 against the spread the last 13 games. Now that all being said, the series now shifts "North of the Border" where I feel the Raptors are going to be far more competitive. This is a big number for them to be getting at home and I see it continuing to go up (so you may want to actually wait a little bit before placing your wager).

The last time Toronto played here at home, we saw them destroy Miami in Game 7, 116-89 as 4.5-pt chalk. They've won six of eight home games this postseason to bring their YTD record here to 38-11 straight up w/ a scoring differential of +6.4 points per game. It is almost unheard of that a team with that kind of home record would be getting this many points.  Only six times all year have the Raptors been a home dog and they have responded by going 5-1 ATS including a perfect 2-0 when taking more than 3.5.  They also won both of those games outright!  I'm not saying this will be an outright win for them, but I absolutely think the game will go down to the wire and easily be the most competitive game of the series so far.

Cleveland's offensive numbers have to start going down soon. They've shot better than 50% against the Raptors so far in the series, but on the road is where you'd expect to see the decrease in productivity.  They average about 4.8 PPG less on the road than they do at home (that's over the course of the season) and they are actually a money-burning 14-22-1 ATS overall as a road favorite. They didn't cover in close out games against either Detroit or Atlanta, which were the only two times so far in the postseason they've had to lay at least five points on the road.  Take the points.  10* Toronto

9* Over Blues/Sharks (7:15 ET):  San Jose took control of the series with another shutout in Game 3 and in all honestly I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they won again tonight.  However, I believe the better bet is on the Over, a wager that has yet to cash here in the Western Conference Finals.  You have to believe that St. Louis isn't going to be blanked for a third consecutive time as they were only shut out five times the entire regular season and never consecutively. They also hadn't been shutout in any game in either of the first two rounds and in fact had scored multiple goals in 12 of those 14 games.  With San Jose now averaging 3.3 goals per game in the playoffs, the call here is on the Over.

This Martin Jones is on a real roll right now.  The Sharks goaltender has posted three shutouts and a superb .978 save percentage his last four starts.  However, it should be pointed out that he allowed four goals in three of his four starts before the current run. So, while he clearly was better than that stretch vs. Nashville showed, Jones is now probably playing a bit "above" his head.  I would expect him to give up at least a goal or two tonight.  As for what's going on between the pipes for St. Louis, they are making a change to Jake Allen as Brian Elliott gave up six goals on just 37 shots the L2 games. While I'd obviously still love to see Elliot in there, given those numbers, this is a tough spot for Allen to come into. The Over is also 14-6 this season when Allen starts on the road.

While this series has yet to see a single Over, it's important to recall that only two of St. Louis' games in the first two rounds didn't see at least five total goals scored (the same two that they were held to just one goal).   It was a similar deal for San Jose in their last series as every game vs. Nashville saw at least five total goals scored.  So the odds really are in our favor here for at least five to be scored tonight.  I anticipate that we'll see a lot more shots as well. The Sharks only have 40 shots total the last two games, but average 32.0 per game for the year here at home. Similarly, St. Louis averages 30.2 per game on the road. 9* Over Blues/Sharks

8* Miami (7:15 ET):  If the Marlins are favored on the money line to beat the Nationals, it shouldn't be hard to guess who's pitching. That would be Jose Fernandez, of course, and he's at home where he's tasted defeat only one time in his entire career.  That was all the way back in his first start of this season, but since then it's been almost all quality starts and he's gotten a lot of batters to swing and miss the last two times he's taken the mound. That includes facing these Nationals, as he finished w/ 11 K's in an easy 5-1 win in D.C. last Sunday. Once again, he'll be opposed by Joe Ross and I expect the result to be the same, if not even more lopsided.

Washington did come out on top in last night's series opener, 4-1, but that was with all four runs coming in one inning and the Marlins actually outhitting them. Tanner Roark pitched well for the Nats after already being hit hard three times by Miami this season.  While Ross has pitched well himself (on the road) this season, lately he hasn't been very good as he's given up five runs in B2B starts. Miami did all of their scoring against him in just 5 2/3 innings Sunday. Clearly, Ross has regressed since three strong outings to start the year. While the Nats have won three straight and allowed only three runs in the process, I think it's important to remember that they had been held to one or no runs three times in their four games before that, twice by the Marlins.

Fernandez's home dominance has become the stuff of legend as he is now 20-1 w/ a 1.65 ERA in 30 lifetime starts here. Also, he's NEVER lost to Washington in eight tries, going 5-0 w/ a miniscule 1.09 ERA. He did throw a career-high 117 pitches on Sunday, but made only one mistake, that being an inside the park HR allowed to Ryan Zimmerman. Overall, Fernandez is 4-0 his L4 starts w/ a 2.16 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 25 IP. He's struck out 11 in B2B starts while allowing just the one inside the park home run and nothing else (only eight hits).  Considering that the Marlins were able to split the four games in Washington last weekend, I have every reason to believe they should be able to win here at home w/ their best pitcher on the mound. 8* Miami

8* Seattle (4:10 ET): Needless to say, Interleague Play has not gone well for the Reds this week. After being swept by Cleveland in a four-game home & home series, the NL Central cellar-dwellers dropped another game last night, this one to the Mariners by a score of 8-3. Life gets no easier this afternoon as they must face off against Felix Hernandez, who has been his usual dominant self despite a 4-4 team start record.  King Felix checks in w/ a 2.47 ERA and 1.196 WHIP in those eight starts and it's also important to remember here just how much better of a team Seattle is compared to Cincinnati. The first place M's are now 24-17 w/ a +43 run differential that's second best in the entire American League. Easy call this afternoon.

Meanwhile, the Reds' 15-27 record is third worst in all of baseball (not a surprise) and their YTD -82 run differential (MLB's worst) indicates that they are every bit as awful as that record shows, if not worse. They've been outscored by 32 runs the L5 games alone and these struggles against American League teams are actually nothing new as they've now lost 32 of 45 IL games since the start of the 2014 season. Starting today for them will be Jeremy Lamb, who has a 5.79 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in three starts. He hasn't won any of them (0-1) nor has the team as his team start record is 0-3. Lamb gave up seven runs and 10 hits in just four innings against Cleveland on Monday.

Hernandez had one bad start at Oakland on May 4th, but otherwise has allowed 3 ER or less in his other seven outings. After "only" striking out 17 batters in his previous five starts, it was nice to see him finish w/ 9 K's Sunday against the Angels.  King Felix has simply loved pitching in NL parks throughout his career as he's gone 8-0 w/ a 1.44 ERA his last 10 (9-1 TSR). If for some reason, Seattle was to actually fall behind today, there's always the Reds bullpen that we can count on.  That group has a 6.76 ERA (MLB worst!) and we saw yday how bad they can be. But falling behind isn't something I anticipate happening w/ Hernandez on the mound, plus the Mariners are now an outstanding 16-7 in road games this year. Outside of Safeco Field, they are 9-1 in the -150 to -175 range the L3 seasons, all of those games coming with Hernandez pitching.  8* Seattle

6* Chi Cubs (10:15 ET):  The Cubs have cooled off a bit in recent days, dropping three of four, including two to lowly Milwaukee in the last series. But it's time for Jake Arrieta to take the mound on Friday and you know what that means.  The Cubs are very likely going to win. Actually, "very likely" might be putting it mildly as last year's Cy Young award winner has a perfect 21-0 team start record his last 21 regular season starts! Arrieta himself is 18-0 during that timespan (0.84 ERA!) and this year is 8-0 w/ a 0.839 WHIP.  In those eight starts, the Cubs have outscored their opponents by a colossal 64-13. That basically accounts for half of the team's remarkable +106 run differential this year. It's a pretty easy decision on what to do here.

Helping to drive up the value on Arrieta and the Cubs here is the fact that the Giants have won eight straight. But those back to back sweeps came against also-rans Arizona and San Diego and both series were on the road.  Each of the team's last seven games have stayed Under the total due to a phenomenal run of pitching that has seen them allow just 10 runs - total! But even though Jake Peavy was a lot better his last time out, he still has a 7.43 ERA and 1.750 WHIP this year. It's a total mismatch here with him on the mound going against Arrieta. 

The Cubs are 8-1 off a loss this season, which obviously means they've dropped back to back games only one time all season. So they're a solid bet to bounce back after yesterday afternoon's surprising defeat.  Also, it's worth noting that seven of the Cubs' 11 losses this season have come in the daytime.  They are 17-4 in night games.   This will be the third cheapest price available on Arrieta so far this season.  6* Chi Cubs

8* Tampa Bay (8:05 ET):  The Lightning have yet to outshoot the Penguins in a single game this year and quite frankly the discrepancy is getting a little frightening as Game 3 was a 48-28 disadvantage in that department. That was on the heels on getting outshot 41-21 in Game 2. It certainly seems as if all the "momentum" (dreaded word) and public sentiment is with the Pens here, but I can't shake the feeling that Tampa Bay really is an outstanding value here on home ice.  Prior to this series commencing, they had not been an underdog in any playoff game. Now the injury to goalie Ben Bishop is certainly a big deal, but I still have faith in backup Andrei Vasilevskiy, who won Game 1. Look for the Lightning to even this series up.

Remember that not only did Tampa Bay win Game 1 w/ Vasilevskiy in net, but they also took all three regular season matchups from the Penguins. Again, the shot discrepancies are typically not a good sign, but I look for them to start doing a better job in front of Vasilevskiy moving forward. Offensively, I'm not sure why HC Jon Cooper stopped playing Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat on the same line as that trio has always been very successful together.  Perhaps sensing that he had to do something to match Pittsburgh's red hot "HBK" line, Cooper reunited them in Game 3 and while it was "too little, too late" there, the fact they combined for two goals when on the ice together in the third period is a positive sign moving forward.

Tonight marks the first time that Tampa Bay is off B2B losses in the playoffs and it's just the second time they've been down in a series (lost Gm 1 to the Islanders).  They are 16-7 after a loss by 2+ goals in their previous game this season. Pittsburgh has not been nearly as dominant as it might seem as prior to winning Game 3, their last five victories had all been by just one goal w/ three of them coming in overtime.  In terms of value, the Lightning have never been this big an underdog on the money all season here at home.  8* Tampa Bay

6* NY Mets (7:10 ET): Again, it's the "giant chasm" that I like to talk about when it comes to the National League this year that's present in this weekend series. It's also a good time to take advantage of recent results when it comes to the non-contending Brewers and the reigning Senior Circuit champion Mets.  Milwaukee is probably feeling pretty good about itself after taking two of three from the Cubs (at home) to start the week. Meanwhile, the Mets have lost six of seven and were held to only four runs in their last series. But the oddsmakers aren't fooled and quite frankly neither am I. Expect this to be a bounce back weekend for the Metropolitans.

New York is actually behind Philadelphia in the NL East entering play on Friday. Who could have thought that would be the case?  While Matt Harvey's woes continued yday, it has been the lack of offense that's been the primary problem of late in Queens. During the 1-6 slide, this team is averaging only 1.9 rpg and batting a collective .205. But a matchup tonight with Wily Peralta should change all that as the Brew Crew starter checks in w/ a 7.30 ERA and 1.992 WHIP in his eight starts this year. That WHIP is the worst in all of MLB among qualified starters.  Peralta got rocked his last time out - by San Diego - giving up six runs in just 4 2/3 innings of work.   He has won just seven of his last 28 starts dating back to last season.

There's also the matter that Milwaukee hasn't won a road series all season. Plus, the Mets giving the baseball to Steven Matz is something that you have to like here.  Matz is a perfect 3-0 his last three starts and has been dominant in the process, turning in a 0.92 ERA and 0.966 WHIP.  After not allowing a single run in B2B starts, he did give up two his last time out, but it was still a relatively easy win at Dodger Stadium.  He will certainly be well-rested here as his last turn in the rotation was skipped (elbow tightness).  Overall, the team is 5-1 when Matz starts and this has all the makings of a "get well" game for the home team.  6* NY Mets

    

6* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Pirates are the only team in either league that hasn't been shutout this season and needless to say I expect that to still be the case after tonight when they figure to "tee off" on inconsistent Rockies starter Eddie Butler.  The fact that Colorado has a winning road record this year really surprises me given the team is a horrible 65-119 outside of the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field since the start of the 2014 season. Pittsburgh has not been a favorable draw for them in the past as they are just 3-13 their last 16 games against the Bucs, including 1-9 since the start of last season. Pittsburgh swept a three-game set in Coors Field earlier this year.

They're only 22-18 overall, so the Pirates best take care of business during this favorable part of the schedule. They just took three of four here at PNC Park against the Braves to start what will be a 10-game homestand (D'backs after this series). As stated above, they've really had the Rockies number the last few seasons and that should continue this weekend thanks to an offense that is second in team batting average and on base percentage.  Colorado pitching has always been shaky through the years, but so far in 2016 they are giving up only 3.7 rpg on the road. Now that being said, after holding St. Louis to only three runs in two games, they gave up 13 on Thursday. Two of Butler's three starts have been poor as he's given up at least four runs while not making it a full six innings.

Maybe Pittsburgh won't be as prolific at the plate as they were at Coors Field earlier this year (scored 24 runs in three games), but they won't have to be considering Colorado has scored only 21 times in its last eight games here at PNC Park.  It feels like Gerrit Cole hasn't been as good as advertised so far for the Bucs, but he's allowed 2 ER or less in five of his last six outings and comes off his best one to date as he held the Cubs scoreless and gave up just three hits in 8 IP. Regardless of the respective records and run differentials of the two teams here, I again point to the fact that there is a real gap between the contenders and non-contenders in the National League this year. So this price is justified. 6* Pittsburgh

full analysis soon

10* Under Blues/Sharks (9:05 ET):  San Jose did what they needed to do in St. Louis and that was win a game. I had them as they shut the Blues out in Game 2, winning 4-0.  I do think that things set up pretty nicely for them as the series shifts to "The Tank" for Games 3 and 4, but it is worth mentioning that for the first time in five overall meetings this season, St. Louis did outshoot San Jose Tuesday night (albeit only slightly, 26-24).  Therefore, I'm going to stay away from the side tonight and go back to the Under, a play that I cashed in Game 1.  Save for one 6-3 Sharks win in St. Louis back in late February, these teams have combined for four or fewer goals in the other four matchups. 

San Jose netminder Martin Jones has been vastly underrated during his team's postseason run as he's posted a superb .941 save percentage the last four games, including a pair of shutouts.  The last game marked the first time that St. Louis had been shutout this entire postseason.  That being said, the Blues have scored just one even strength goal in this series.  So their own goalie, Brian Elliott will need to step up and fortunately he posted the league's best goals against average during the regular season.  Elliott is obviously off a bad showing, but remember he turned away 31 of 32 shots in Game 1 and has now gone seven games w/o allowing more than one goal consecutive times.

What typically determines whether or not the Sharks win, is their power play. That unit struck twice in Game 2 and is now 13 for 32 in their nine playoff victories. But they are just 2 for 18 in their five losses. Fortunately, St. Louis ranked #2 on the penalty kill during the regular season and should bounce back after the subpar effort on Tuesday.  As for the Blues power play, they went 0 for 6 in Game 2 and are now just 2 for their last 13.   This should be another low scoring game.  10* Under Blues/Sharks

10* Over Raptors/Cavs (8:35 ET):  The Cavs have set a historic pace on offense this postseason by averaging a whopping 1.17 points per possession and they've already made more three-pointers in nine games than any team before this season had in 12 games.  In Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, they rolled to 115 points as Toronto did not show any ability to stop them. Even worse from the Raptors perspective is that Cleveland "only" went 7 of 20 from three-point range in the series opener, instead connecting on a shocking 63% of their two-point attempts.  Defensively, Toronto was clearly consumed with guarding the three-point line (which they typically aren't very good at doing anyway) and it cost them. Now they are faced with a situation where they don't know what to do in Game 2. I know what to do here though and it's take the Over!

The Raptors were pretty awful themselves on offense in Game 1 as they scored just 84 points on 42.1 percent shooting that included missing 19 of 24 three-point attempts. It has hardly been an efficient attack from Toronto this postseason, but I do anticipate them scoring significantly more points here in Game 2. I say that not only because they are 10-4 Over this season coming off a double digit loss (24-8 Over the L3 seasons), but also due to the fact that Cleveland's defense has hardly been "good" during this playoff run of theirs.  Game 1 was their best showing yet, but remember that they were coming off a long layoff while Toronto was playing for the second time in three days. Defensively, the Cavaliers are allowing 1.04 points per possession in the playoffs, worst among the four remaining teams.

Something else to consider from Game 1 is that Cleveland scored 95 points in three quarters, so their final point total (high as it may be) actually undersells how dominant they were.  Again, I don't really see Toronto finding a way to stop them.  If they again focus on defending the three-point line, the Cavs have shown they can exploit them inside. If the Raptors pack it in, the Cavs will likely go "bombs away" and burn them that way.  Cleveland is 9-3 Over this season if they allowed 85 pts or less the last game.  10* Over Raptors/Cavaliers

6* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET):  Eventually, Chris Sale will lose a game this season, but don't bank on it happening tonight as he gets set to face the Astros. Now, the White Sox have dropped both games in this series so far and four in a row overall.  But Sale is the ultimate stopper as he comes in w/ an 8-0 record in his eight starts, a 1.67 ERA and 0.758 WHIP.  Last time out, he went out the distance, allowing just one run and six hits in a 7-1 win over the Yankees. The team has now outscored its opponents 31-5 in Sale's last four starts!  The ace has allowed 1 ER or less in five of his last six starts and has held Houston in check throughout his career, posting a 47-4 KW ratio in 32 innings pitched. Look for the home team to avoid the sweep.

Before these last four games, Chicago had been off to a fantastic start. They'd outscored opponents by 41 runs in 36 games and it should be pointed out that they've hardly been dominated during this season-worst losing skid as every loss has been by one or two runs.  Houston, meanwhile, has been one of the biggest disappointments in all of baseball as they still are seven games below .500 and in last place of a pretty weak AL West.  The biggest issue for them has been bullpen regression and that regression has hit hardest on the road where their relievers have posted a 5.48 ERA and 1.360 WHIP.  Compare those numbers to the White Sox bullpen, which has improved dramatically this year (1.92 ERA at home, 1.030 WHIP).  

Obviously, the White Sox are going to have the edge in starting pitching virtually every time Sale takes the mound, but I think that it definitely helps that tonight's starter for Houston (Colin McHugh) has been downright woeful on the road so far. In three road starts, McHugh has an 8.74 ERA and 2.118 WHIP and his last time out saw him give up 10 hits in six innings while walking more hitters than he struck out.  Prior to yday's win, the Astros were just 2-13 when coming off a win.  They are also allowing 6.0 rpg on the road this year.   6* Chi White Sox

8* Chi Cubs (1:40 ET):  I have a feeling that the Cubs "broke the spirit" of the Brewers last night via a 2-1 win in 13 innings.  It was almost the Cubbies third straight loss (which would have been a 1st for 2016), however, they were able to tie the game in the top of the ninth (JJ Hardy's first blown save of the year for the Brew Crew) and then reliever Travis Wood was the hero in extra innings by first getting out of a bases loaded jam in the bottom of the 12th, then improbably drawing a bases loaded walk in the top of the 13th to win the game.  It's simply been that kind of season so far for the team from the Northside of Chicago and considering the quick turnaround between games here and that giant chasm between the "have's" and "have not's" in the National League that I always like to reference, I say it's advantage Cubs this afternoon.

Now the Cubs bullpen obviously was taxed yday, but they came through by throwing seven scoreless innings.  Thus, we will likely need a quality start today and thankfully Jason Hammel is just the man for the job. Hammel comes in w/ a 1.77 ERA (third best in the NL) in seven starts (6-1 TSR) and is a perfect 8-0 w/ a 2.37 ERA in his career vs. Milwaukee.  He has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season.  Six times, he's allowed two or fewer.  This is a pretty weak lineup that he'll be facing today as Milwaukee comes in averaging just 2.6 rpg its last seven contests. 

The Cubs lineup has quieted down itself over the last week, but I assume that's only a temporary thing as they've averaged 6.3 rpg on the road this season. Clearly, it will be difficult to sustain that kind of average, but after scoring all of five runs the L3 days, don't be surprised if they break out here. After all, they lead the NL in runs scored (218) and are averaging nearly 10 runs per game when Hammel starts!  Milwaukee starter Junior Guerra has held opponents to a .206 batting average in three starts, but I feel his stock is a little overvalued coming off an impressive outing against the punchless Padres.  The Brewers simply aren't a very good team, an opinion that is confirmed by their -37 run differential. 8* Chi Cubs

10* Over Thunder/Warriors (9:05 ET):  A funny thing happened late in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors completely collapsed down the stretch.  The NBA's most efficient offense managed only 14 points in the fourth quarter as they went cold from the field. That was the fewest points for them in any quarter this postseason and their 42 second half points were their fewest in any half. With Oklahoma City, keep in mind that they won despite Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook shooting a combined 17 of 51 from the floor! Thus, I think it's more than reasonable to expect more points to be scored tonight in Game 2. Take the Over.

Golden State had 60 points by halftime, so it's not like the Thunder were dominant defensively. It was simply a case of the Warriors missing shots that we usually see them make. Klay Thompson made only three three-pointers, the first time in seven games he didn't make at least five.  Steph Curry scored 26 points, but was only 9 of 22 from the floor.  This is a team that averages 115.7 PPG at home and Game 1 marked their second lowest scoring game of the postseason.  The lowest was their one loss to the Rockets in Round 1, a game they played w/o Curry. They responded the next game by scoring 121 points.  That's par for the course with this team as they are averaging a phenomenal 121.3 PPG off a SU loss this season.

Oklahoma City was #2 in offensive efficiency during the regular season, trailing only Golden State. They average 109.7 PPG and that number actually goes up slightly when they're on the road (110.4).   While just one meeting between these two teams has gone Over, and that was a byproduct of overtime, the O/U line has also now decreased dramatically from what we saw in the regular season (232+ every time) and is even several points lower than what we saw in Game 1.  So there's a ton of value here.  Both teams left a lot of points at the charity stripe, missing a combined 16 free throws on a total of 49 attempts.  That's highly irregular as both teams shoot better than 76% from the FT line for the season. Expect more points to be scored tonight.  10* Over Thunder/Warriors

10* Under Astros/White Sox (8:10 ET):  There's been a real "role reversal" with these teams looking at this year and last.  In 2015, Houston was the break out team in the American League, jumping from 70 wins the previous year to 86 and a playoff berth. But they've regressed this season as they currently find themselves in last place at 16-24 despite winning here on the Southside of Chicago yday.  Meanwhile, the White Sox remain in first place in the AL Central at 24-15 after finishing ten games below .500 last season. Seeing as Houston was able to win Tuesday, I have no opinion on the side tonight, but I do have a strong call on the total and that's Under as the White Sox have given up the fewest number of runs in the entire A.L. while Houston is simply "due" to start giving up fewer than what we've seen in recent days.

The Astros are just 2-13 off a win this year, so there's a good chance we'll see a decrease in production at the plate after they scored six times in yday's extra inning win. Note that the game was tied 4-4 after nine innings. But Doug Fister should give his team a chance tonight as the Houston starter has made five consecutive quality starts.  Here in May, he's allowed just 6 ER and 16 hits in 20 IP.  He's coming off arguably his best outing of the season to date as he needed only 89 pitches to get through seven innings and recorded 14 outs via ground ball.  There hasn't been a single Over in Fister's last six starts as three have stayed Under and three have fallen right on the number. The last one pushed as it went 16 innings, but only eight total runs were scored.

Each of the Astros' last five games have gone Over the total with them giving up an average of more than seven runs per game.  But that number will start to come down, trust me. As for the fact that Houston has averaged nearly seven runs per game themselves over the last four contests, tonight they run into Mat Latos, who is enjoying a tremendous resurgence in 2016 w/ a 6-1 team start record. He's regressed a bit over his L3 starts, but remember he's allowed 1 or 0 ER in each of his first four starts. His L2 starts came against teams seeing him for a second time this year, which is probably why his performance suffered.  Houston has not seen him since 2012 when they were a NL team and Latos was on the Reds.  10* Under Astros/White Sox

9* Tampa Bay (8:05 ET):  Though I played Pittsburgh in Game 2 and they delivered (41-21 edge in shots), it was by no means easy as they needed OT to defeat the Lightning for the first time in 2015-16.  Sure, Tampa Bay has not finished with the edge in shots in any of the five meetings this season and that typically would be something I'd cite as an indicator that future results will not go well. But there is no disputing what a good value the Lightning have become in this series due to the Ben Bishop injury.  Consider that coming into this series, they had been ML favorites in every playoff game, so the fact that they are now at 'plus money' on home ice is too good to pass up.

As we saw in Game 2, the dropoff from Bishop to Andrei Vasilevskiy is not as severe as some might believe. Vasilevskiy has stopped 63 of 67 shots in this series and remember he has playoff experience from LY's run to the Stanley Cup Finals.  Game 2 seemed "tailor-made" for a Pittsburgh beatdown (that's what I expected), but as we saw, Vasilevskiy kept his team in the game. Note that the Lightning have not dropped consecutive games this postseason.  For all the attention that the Penguins have gotten for their late-season run, the Lightning have virtually been just as good, winning 37 of their last 56 games (Pens have won 39 of last 58). 

Rookie Matt Murray seems to be regressing a bit as the Penguins goaltender's save percentage is only .889 the last four games. That's definitely a troubling sign. Remember that Vasilevskiy outdueled Murray in Game 1 and despite losing, was probably the better netminder in Game 2 as well.  Again, the Pens have yet to beat the Lightning this season in regulation despite a huge edge in shots. Provided Tampa Bay does a better job at possessing the puck tonight, they should have no problem "stealing" this game.  9* Tampa Bay

6* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET):  This figured to be an easy series for the host Pirates and sure enough it has been thus far as they've posted B2B three-run victories, 8-5 and 12-9.  I'll continue to speak of this "giant chasm" that exists between the contenders and non-contenders in the National League while looking to exploit it. There's, of course, no team worse in the Senior Circuit than Atlanta right now as the Braves are 9-29 with a -70 run differential. I can't find any reason why they'd "get off the mat" Wednesday as Pittsburgh should make it three in a row in this four-game set.

  Atlanta did make a managerial change before yday's game, dumping Fredi Gonzalez in favor of Brian Snitker, who has basically spent his entire career coaching in the organization's minor league system. That change had little to no effect on the big league club Tuesday as they found themselves down 7-0 after one inning and 9-0 after two.  Offensively, they simply cannot compete with the Pirates, who had 21 hits yday (season-high) and are now second in all of MLB in team batting average (.282) and 1st in OBP (.361).  The Braves are dead last in baseball in runs scored, 28th in batting average, 27th in OBP and 30th (last) in slugging.

From a pitching perspective, Atlanta may not seem to be in as bad of shape as starter Julio Teheran has a 1.44 ERA his L5 starts. But the problem has been a lack of run support and as a result his team start record this year is 1-7.  It's probably bad news that he's getting the baseball the day after the offense registered a season-high in runs scored and hits. Also, the pressure will be on Teheran to go deep into the game as the bullpen saw extended action yday.  Pittsburgh counters w/ Francisco Liriano, who has been a totally different pitcher at home than on the road.  He has a 0.71 ERA in two starts here at PNC Park, winning both, so look for him to bounce back from a disastrous showing at Wrigley Field last week.  This price range does not scare me at all as the Bucs are 14-4 the L3 seasons as home favorites of -175 to -200.  That includes 2-0 this season. 6* Pittsburgh

7* San Francisco (10:15 ET):  Again, I come back to the rather giant (no pun intended!) chasm that exists this year in the National League between the contenders and non-contenders. Here, we have one team from each group and after watching the Giants sweep another division rival (Arizona) over the weekend, I see no reason why they couldn't do the same here to a San Diego team that is even less impressive on paper.  At least, I'll call for San Francisco to take tonight's series opener as they have Madison Bumgarner taking the hill and it's a very reasonable price considering the way he's pitched against the Padres in the past.

The Giants have won five in a row coming into this series and in all five wins they've gotten a quality start out of the rotation.  It began w/ Bumgarner holding the vaunted Toronto lineup to only one run and three hits in 6 2/3 innings work.  He now goes to facing a much weaker lineup obviously and over his L5 starts vs. San Diego, he's 3-0 w/ a 1.69 ERA.  Earlier this year, he held them to just two runs in a 5-4 victory at AT&T Park.  He hasn't lost since, winning four straight starts.  Bumgarner's WHIP hasn't been that good, but I fully expect that number to improve moving forward.  San Diego is only averaging 2.9 runs per game at home this season while batting a collective .227.

I've yet to speak much about the Padres and what they've been doing of late. They just split a four-game series on the road w/ Milwaukee, during which they were shut out for a Major League leading ninth time. In fact, they were held to three runs or fewer in three of the four games.  Tonight's starter Colin Rea has won his last three starts, but was fortunate his last time out in that he had more walks than strikeouts and allowed four runs in just five innings of work.  The offense has been surprisingly effective when he pitches, but I don't anticipate that being the case tonight against Bumgarner.  Not only is San Diego hitting at only a .213 clip overall its L7 games, but they are averaging just 3.3 rpg against LH starters (.227 BA).  7* San Francisco

10* Toronto (8:35 ET):  With the quick turnaround the Raptors are facing between series and the long layoff the Cavaliers have gotten to enjoy, I think that the knee-jerk reaction from most bettors is going to be to back the home team in Game 1. But that line of thinking is a little bit flawed when you consider there's just as good a chance that Cleveland comes out "rusty."  Sure they are a perfect 6-0 straight up when playing w/ three or more days rest this year, but this is a massive number to lay as Toronto is basically getting the same amount of respect that the 8-seed Detroit did in Round 1. The Raptors are a strong 17-11 ATS as underdogs this season, so take the points.

Toronto should also be very encouraged by the way that PG Kyle Lowry finished the Miami series. After some dreadful shooting in the Indiana series, Lowry came alive against the Heat by scoring 33 or more points three times in the last five games. He scored a series-high 36 in Game 7 Sunday and even more encouraging is the way he played against the Cavs in the regular season. There, he averaged 30 PPG while shooting a somewhat ridiculous 66 percent from the floor.  Kyrie Irving is not a good defender at all and figures to struggle to contain Lowry when he's on him in this series. Toronto did beat Cleveland in two of the three regular season meetings.

Speaking of defense, lost in the Cavs amazing barrage of three-point shooting this postseason is the fact they haven't been very efficient on the other end of the floor. Sure, you can take a look at the raw numbers and see that only one time have they allowed more than 101 points. But, they are also allowing five more points per 100 possessions than Toronto is during the playoffs. Their defensive efficiency rating of 106.5 is easily the worst among the four remaining teams and assuming there's a decline in the insanely good three-point shooting, this team is going to struggle to win by any kind of significant margin. Note that while they are a perfect 8-0 straight up in the playoffs, three of the wins have been by five points or less and only one (Game 2 vs. Atlanta) was really a blowout.  10* Toronto

7* St. Louis (8:15 ET): When writing about the National League this year, I often mention the giant chasm that exists between the contenders and non-contenders. We have one team from each group in this series that gets underway Tuesday at Busch Stadium with the Cardinals hosting the Rockies. So far, St. Louis has been a bit of a disappointment w/ their 20-18 WL record, but a +49 run differential (3rd best in MLB!) indicates that better days could be on the horizon. Or maybe not, but the bottom line is that I have little regard for a Colorado team which is a hideous 64-117 outside of Coors Field the L3 seasons.  They come in having won four straight as they just swept the Mets at home, but I'm not buying them, in fact I'll "sell high." 

It looks to be a fairly significant pitching mismatch for tonight's series opener as the Redbirds will send Jaime Garcia to the bump while the Rockies counter with Chad Bettis.  The former has outstanding numbers despite a mediocre team start record, particularly here at home where his ERA is 1.98 and his WHIP is 0.695. Somehow, he's managed to go only 2-2 in those four starts and that "somehow" is the offense scoring only one run for him in each loss.  But I would expect the Cards' offense, which is third best in all of MLB right now (5.6 runs per game) to "tee off" against Bettis, who has a 5.89 ERA and 1.528 WHIP his L3 starts and has allowed three or more runs in all but two of his eight starts.

It's really surprising to find that Colorado is allowing only 3.4 rpg on the road this year. While the staff is clearly hindered by its home ballpark, it's not like it's an impressive looking group on paper. They've allowed at least six runs in 17 of their 37 games overall and, again, they are facing one of the more prolific lineups in the game here.  The last time this club posted a five-game win streak was 2014.  For what it's worth, Tuesday simply hasn't been the Rockies day this year as they are 0-6 in Tuesday games.  This should be a breakout series for the home team, which is an outstanding 25-5 as a home favorite of -175 to -200 the L3 seasons.  7* St. Louis

9* San Jose (8:05 ET):  So, with the Blues taking Game 1 (2-1), the home team is now 8-0 in the Sharks' last eight games. I'll call for that streak to end here, however, as you have to remember that San Jose posted the best road record in the league during the regular season (28-12-1) and then went on to win all three games in Los Angeles in Round 1.  They are more than capable of "stealing" a game here at the Scottrade Center as they were 2-0 here in the regular season. Not only that, but the Sharks have outshot the Blues in all four meetings this season, including a 32-23 edge in Game 1. As I've been harping on throughout the playoffs, the number of shots on goal a team has tends to be a reliable indicator of future results.

It's not like St. Louis has been overwhelming on home ice this postseason.  In fact, prior to winning Game 1, they were just 4-3 in home playoff games and all but one of them have been decided by one goal.  They were lucky that a potential game-tying goal for the Sharks at the end of the second period was waved off.  Though they were predictably physical in Game 1, that came at the expense of puck possession, which San Jose pretty much dominated. Another key was St. Louis killing off all three Sharks' power plays and while the Blues ranked second in the league during the regular season on the PK (85.1%), I would expect San Jose to be better tonight when they have the man advantage. Game 1 was just the fourth game of this postseason where the Sharks did not score a PP goal.

In the four games against San Jose this year, the Blues have scored only seven goals.  Martin Jones has been in goal for the Sharks all four games and is coming on strong of late w/ a .930 save percentage his L4 games.  The team is 25-14 on the road this season w/ him in net.  Meanwhile, Brian Elliott is surprisingly just 15-13 SU at home for the Blues and in addition to getting away w/ the disallowed goal at the end of the second period Sunday, he's now allowed seven goals on 79 shots here at home vs. San Jose this year (three games).  The Blues are surprisingly just 1-5 so far in the playoffs when leading the series and are being outshot overall this postseason  9* San Jose

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET):  Clearly, the Phillies have massively overachieved to this point. All you need to do is look at their -32 run differential to know that the 22-17 record is quite fraudulent. The fact they've gone 14-3 in one-run games is what's "kept them afloat" and they did lose last night, 5-3, here at home to Miami.  But, that all being said, they are a solid value tonight w/ Vincent Velasquez on the mound.  Philadelphia's starting pitching has been a most pleasant surprise this season, most notably posting a MLB-high six shutouts so far. Two of those have come from Velasquez, plus he also tossed six shutout innings of two-hit ball against Cleveland in what ended up as a 2-1 victory. His first start against Miami wasn't as effective, but now facing them here at home, I think he'll be better the second time around.

On May 6th, Velasquez lost to the Marlins 6-4 as he gave up four runs over six innings. That start also saw him allow a season-high seven hits. But the good news is a rematch with Wei-Yin Chen (more on him in a moment) takes place in the City of Brotherly Love where Velasquez has been superb in three starts, posting a 0.93 ERA and 0.724 WHIP. Again, in two of those starts he did not allow a single run.  In that first meeting w/ Chen and Miami, it's not like his counterpart pitched that well. In fact, Chen allowed four runs and 11 hits in just five innings of work. He (Chen) then did turn in a season-best performance last Wednesday, striking out 12 in a 3-2 win over the Brewers. But I would not look for a repeat of that here. The most K's that Chen had posted in any start previously was seven and he didn't have any against the Phillies. Only one other time in his career had he struck out 10+ batters.

Being that they've been such a surprise to this point, it shouldn't be too shocking to find out that the Phils lead all of MLB in net units at +11.0.   Miami, meanwhile, has been an equally surprising 13-7 on the road thus far.  So, something has gotta give.  Last night, it was the home team giving a little back, but tonight I think Velasquez will get his revenge on Chen now that he gets to face him at Citizens Bank Park.  10* Philadelphia

full analysis soon

10* Golden State (9:05 ET):  The Thunder are flying high into the Western Conference Finals as they surprised a lot of people (myself included) by ousting the Spurs in six games in the last round. It turns out that having two of the best five players on the planet really helps! However, I feel the Thunder's task is significantly more challenging here as they face a Golden State team that they don't matchup nearly as well against. It is true that OKC did have a fourth quarter lead in all three regular season meetings, but they still didn't win any of them and I wouldn't necessarily count on them playing that well tonight in Game 1. Remember that the Thunder were destroyed in Game 1 of the San Antonio series. This is a low number to get on the Warriors at home, so lay the points.

This is a matchup of the two most efficient offenses during the regular season (Cleveland has been better than both in the playoffs).  Oklahoma City is obviously great offensively, averaging 1.09 points per possession and 109.7 per game, but Golden State is simply better with averages of 1.12 and 114.8.  Both teams figure to score a lot in the series, but I think that the Warriors' vastly underrated defense could be the deciding factor. The Dubs' were fourth in the regular season in defensive efficiency and are third here in the postseason.  In the three regular season meetings, they held the Thunder to just 20 of 68 from three-point range.

I referenced earlier how this is about as low a price as you can hope to get on Golden State when they're playing at home. Well, they covered both home games against the Thunder in the regular season and are now 8-0 SU/6-2 ATS in the -6.5 to -9 point range as home favorites this year. Going back further, they are 21-9 ATS (70%) in that range the last three seasons. Another key could be the fact that OKC is only 1-3 SU/ATS when playing with three or more days rest. Also, before upsetting the Spurs twice in the previous series, they had been just 1-10 straight up as an underdog this year.  Before failing to cover the close out game vs. Portland, the Warriors were a perfect 5-0 ATS at home in the playoffs and their average margin of victory here over the course of the season is +14.6 PPG (45-2 straight up).  10* Golden State

5* Pittsburgh (8:05 ET):  Sure the juice is high, but shouldn't it be given the situation? I was on Tampa Bay in Game 1 and while they delivered (winning 3-1), it came with a price and that was losing star goaltender Ben Bishop to a leg injury that might keep him out for the rest of the season. Bishop was obviously a big reason why I took the Lightning in Game 1 and his .939 save percentage in the playoffs is going to be sorely missed.  Andrei Vasilevskiy filled in admirably in Game 1 and while Lightning fans will simply want to "point across the ice" to what's happened with Matt Murray and Pittsburgh, I think the drop off from Bishop to Vasilevskiy is more severe than what the Penguins had to deal with going from Marc-Andre Fleury to Murray. The Pens face a "must-win" here and on paper things couldn't set up any better for them.

It has been a very long time since Pittsburgh lost B2B games. One would have to go all the way back to mid-January and ironically, it was the Lightning that dealt them that second straight defeat. But so much has changed since that time, namely the Penguins going on a monster 36-13-2 run. They are 15-5 this season coming off a loss by two or more goals. Also, while they have yet to beat the Lightning this season in four tries, it needs to be pointed out that the Penguins have had the edge in shots on goal every time, Game 1 included as it was a 35-20 in that department. That was actually the third time that the Pens have had at least 15 more shots, but still lost to the Lightning. So, again, Bishop clearly is going to be missed.

Tampa Bay has now won five straight and allowed one goal or less in four of those victories. But everything changes w/ Bishop out of the lineup and I just can't see them taking both games here in Pittsburgh.  Speaking of goaltenders, Matt Murray has been the star of this postseason for the Penguins and now all of a sudden he's the one that should give his team the edge between the pipes.  Though 9-2 in the playoffs, Tampa Bay has actually been outshot overall, a sign of good fortune and that they've relied heavily on Bishop.  The high juice is absolutely warranted given the situation. 5* Pittsburgh

8* Detroit (7:10 ET):  It's been a shaky stretch for the Tigers, who are just 3-11 in May and that has landed manager Brad Ausmus on the proverbial hot seat. But if Ausmus were able to draw up an ideal situation for his club to get back on track, then it would probably look something like tonight as they are back at home, facing the lowly Minnesota Twins and have Jordan Zimmerman on the mound. When these AL Central rivals met earlier in the season, it was all Detroit as they rolled to a three-game sweep, outscoring Minnesota 19-8 in the process. While the Twins are coming off B2B road wins for the first time all season, that doubled their number of total road wins all season, and thus it's difficult to envision them making it three in a row here at the Tigers' expense.

Zimmerman has yet to have a bad start for the Tigers as he's 7 for 7 in quality outings and brings in a 1.50 ERA and 1.104 WHIP.  Unfortunately, the team has also lost his last two starts, but there's a good reason for that as he was being opposed by Cole Hamels and then Max Scherzer, who held Detroit to just three runs combined.  I'll touch on what kind of run support I expect him to get in a moment, but Zimmerman should have no problems here w/ a Twins lineup that is tied for last in the American League for runs scored. He held them to just one run (on six hits) over seven innings back on April 30th while also posting his best KW ratio to date (7-0). 

Jose Berrios was Minnesota's top minor league pitcher last year, but success has yet to really come to the 21-year old at the big league level as he owns a 6.28 ERA and 1.745 WHIP through three starts and he's walked eight batters in 14 1/3 IP.  His one road start was the best of the three, but I expect him to struggle here against a Tigers lineup which has the top two hitters in the entire American League right now (in terms of batting average).  Victor Martinez is hitting .352 and Nick Castellanos is at .344.  Those two combined to go 15 for 24 at the plate in the last series vs. Minnesota w/ Castellanos hitting a pair of home runs. It's downright shocking that the Tigers are only 5-9 at home thus far, but the Twins are just 4-16 on the road (0-8 in the +125 to +150 price range) and thus what should be an easy series for Detroit gets off to a positive start this evening.  8* Detroit

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET):  The Pirates were finally able to beat the Cubs yday, 2-1, despite the fact that they were actually no-hit for the first six innings.  Now that they've completed that series, things should get far easier for the Bucs as they go from facing the best team in baseball (sorry, Gerrit Cole) to its worst.  This series with Atlanta actually begins a 24-game stretch outside of the division for Pittsburgh, which has to be music to the club's ears considering the fact they're actually seven games below .500 vs. the rest of the NL Central since the start of last season.  The Braves' record might be significantly worse when they're at home, but they still are being outscored by 1.2 runs per game on the road.  This should be an easy series for the home team, who I have winning big tonight.

Atlanta, not surprisingly, is coming off a loss on Sunday. They had to play 13 innings before eventually falling to Kansas City, 4-2, and have now dropped 18 of their last 23 games while winning just one series all year. Yesterday's extra inning affair saw the Braves use six different relievers, which will do them no favors here.  They figure to get little out of starter Williams Perez, who is coming off what was - easily - his best start of the year.  Consider though that Perez failed to complete even five innings in any of his first three starts while producing a negative KW ratio and that had earned him a demotion to the minors. It's a big difference going from facing the Phillies (29th in runs score) to the Pirates, who are 4th in team batting average and 3rd in on base percentage.

Jon Niese will be the starter tonight for the Pirates.  Through five starts, Niese had a perfect team start record, but was a clear candidate for regression as his personal numbers did not indicate any kind of dominance. He's given up plenty of home runs so far, including three solo shots in his last start, which accounted for all the runs he allowed in a tough 3-2 loss to Cincinnati. Before that he had to pitch at Coors Field and then against the Cubs, who also handed him a loss. But while his counterpart Perez goes from facing a weak lineup in his last start to one of baseball's best here, the opposite is true for Niese, who should get back on track tonight thanks to facing MLB's lowest scoring lineup. He has a 2.30 ERA his L9 starts vs. Atlanta, which is a good sign as well. 8* Pittsburgh

9* Under Sharks/Blues (8:05 ET):  The road team won all three regular season meetings between these two and San Jose finished the regular season w/ the league's best road record (28-10-3). However, the home team went 7-0 in their last series and I wouldn't be surprised if that trend carried over a bit here to the Western Conference Finals. But I don't really like the Blues at this price, so it's the total we're looking at and though the Under has not cashed for either team in its last six games, I see Game 1 being lower scoring than expected as St. Louis just held the league's highest scoring team to one goal three times in the last series, and they will face stiffer goaltending here. Take the Under.

Two of the three regular season meetings stayed Under, most notably the last one, which was a 1-0 Blues victory. Goalie Brian Elliot turned in a 37-save shutout in that one and has posted a .929 save percentage in these playoffs.  No other netminder has made more saves this postseason than Elliot's 441.  This team was 4th in the league in goals allowed during the regular season and a real key for them in this series is having the #2 penalty kill as San Jose's power play has been huge for them in the last two series.  The Sharks scored at least one power play goal in all but one of the games in the Nashville series and eight total.  That's a big number and I don't anticipate they'll come even close to that against the Blues.  Over the seven games vs. the Preds, they scored only 17 even strength goals.

This is a much different matchup for the Blues than the Stars were as San Jose is a much faster opponent.  But I expect them to be rude hosts here with a physical style of play that could give the Sharks trouble.  Over the last five games, the Blues are allowing an average of just 25.6 shots. At the same time, I would not anticipate St. Louis to be nearly as prolific offensively in this series as San Jose goalie Martin Jones has turned in a 2.18 goals against average in the playoffs and .918 save percentage. He turned in a Game 7 shutout and held the Blues to just five goals in three games (faced 79 shots).  9* Under Sharks/Blues

8* Over Cardinals/Dodgers (8:05 ET):  The Dodgers have beaten the Cardinals each of the last two days and can finish off the sweep tonight.  It's certainly been a frustrating season in the gateway city of St. Louis as the club is only one game above .500 despite a +46 run differential that's third best in all of MLB.  Though I think it's going to be "that kind of season" for the Redbirds, I'd still be a little leery about betting against them in this spot. However, the Over has also cashed in the first two games of this series and I see that as the best bet for tonight as the number is once again pretty low.

St. Louis has certainly had no problem scoring runs this year as they are one of three teams (Cubs, Red Sox) to be above the 200-run threshold right now.  Even though they've scored just seven runs in two games against the Dodgers, they are still averaging 6.1 rpg the last seven contests while batting a collective .292.  The Over is 23-12-2 in all Cardinals' games this year, making them one of five teams to be cashing at a 65% Over clip or better.  This offense is also fourth in OBP (.344) and second in slugging (.475).  Meanwhile, the Dodgers have scored 13 runs the L2 days, so I think we can count on them too, especially considering the way St. Louis' pitchers have struggled of late.

Last year, St. Louis was #1 in MLB in ERA by a wide margin, but this year they are down to 13th (4.09) and I can't say I'm that surprised as this group was a clear candidate for regression. It is Mike Leake getting the baseball tonight and while his last start looks good (allowed only 1 ER in 8 IP), note that he'd allowed at least four runs in each of his first six outings.  The Over is 4-0 his last four starts.  Alex Wood has a 4.58 ERA in his seven starts for the Dodgers this year and while he's been better at home, I wouldn't be too confident w/ him facing this offense.  8* Over Cardinals/Dodgers

8* Seattle (5:05 ET):  The ATS results from the last two years of head to head meetings between Seattle and LA have been quite interesting. In 2014, the Sparks won and covered all five head to head battles, which is what you'd expect given they were the far better team that season.  But then it was a down year last season and the Storm ended up returning the favor w/ a 4-0 SU/ATS mark. Interestingly, Seattle won only six other times the rest of 2015. But this year they project to be much better thanks to the addition of rookie Breanna Stewart (out of UConn). They have a solid opportunity to move up the standings in a Western Conference that's relatively weak outside of the top two teams. Take the points here.

Last season was one of the worst in recent memory for the Sparks as they finished the regular season six games under .500 and were ousted by Minnesota in the first round of the playoffs.  They were a money-burning 5-13 ATS in the role of favorite, so it's curious to see them open up as such a prohibitive choice here, especially so early on in the campaign.  Obviously, having a healthy Candace Parker back in the lineup is a very big deal as the team was a lousy 3-15 SU w/o her in 2015 (11-5 when she played), but I think that the oddsmakers are overestimating that importance.

For Seattle, Stewart joins last year's Rookie of the Year Jewell Loyd to form a strong, young nucleus for the franchise to build around.  Like I said earlier, I expect this team to be much better in 2016.  The Storm were the second lowest scoring team in the league a year ago, but w/ Stewart they should see a big jump in that category.  Consider that they won on this floor last year, as 13-pt dogs, even with Parker in the lineup for LA.  That was part of a 5-3 ATS mark as DD dogs and the team was excellent defensively against the Sparks, holding them to under 63 points per game. Anything similar here will result in an easy cover, at the least.  8* Seattle

10* Arizona (4:10 ET):  It's rare to see a home team swept in a four-game series, but that's the fate awaiting Arizona were they to lose again this afternoon.  Fortunately, they will be going up against Matt Cain, who is 0-5 in seven starts (1-6 TSR) w/ a 6.69 ERA and 1.512 WHIP this year. Now, I understand that yday saw them fail to break through against another struggling San Francisco starter, that being Jake Peavy. But on Sunday, the D'backs have a better starter of their own going and that should prove to be the difference as they look to avoid the sweep.  Sooner rather than later, the club's awful 5-15 record at home is due to turn around.

Cain has been especially bad on the road this year for the Giants as his ERA is 10.12 in two starts. The team has lost each of the last six times he's taken the mound, even the last time despite him allowing only two runs over eight innings (offense was shut out vs. Toronto).  But he'd allowed at least six runs in three of five starts previous to that one and didn't fare much better when he faced Arizona on April 19th.  There, he allowed three runs in only 4 2/3 innings and again the offense was shutout.  I guess I should perhaps offer a caveat on my opening statement about home teams rarely getting swept in four-game series because that happened to the Giants in last month's series vs. the D'backs.  So the road team is now 7-0 in head to head meetings.  Simply put, the home team is due to win one, right? 

Pitching today for Arizona is Rubby De La Rosa, who has been trending in a positive direction as of late. He allowed just one run on four hits in 7 1/3 innings his last time out as the team won 5-1 at Colorado.  That was the third time in his last four starts that De La Rosa allowed 1 or 0 ER  and his WHIP is down to 0.950 his L3 starts.  He is 4-1 all-time vs. San Francisco and posted a 3.16 ERA against them as a starter last season.  Last night's game could have gone either way as Arizona tied things up heading into the ninth only to allow two runs in the top of the frame. It's been nothing but low-scoring games so far in this series, but I look for the D'backs to finally get it going offensively today and it's established that they have the edge in starting pitching. 10* Arizona

10* Over Heat/Raptors (3:35 ET):  Points have been pretty hard to come by in this best of seven series. Just like the series itself, the Over-Under is tied at three games apiece, but we've yet to see more than 198 total pts scored in any one game (remember that three of the games have gone to OT) and Toronto has yet to break 100 pts on its own.  But that being said, we have seen a minor uptick in scoring the L2 games (both went Over) thanks to the Raptors' starting backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan finally both coming around.  With this game taking place at home, we can expect Toronto to score more (103.6 PPG) and they certainly should improve upon their overall 41.5 percent shooting from Game 6 (4 of 16 from three-point range).  Take the Over.

This represents a pretty low number on the spectrum for totals in Raptors home games this year. The Over is a perfect 3-0 the only three times the # has been between 185 to 189.5 points and that includes Game 5 where it was 189.  The key for Toronto in the last two games has been Lowry and DeRozan both coming alive as they combined for 59 points in the Game 5 victory and then 59 more in Game 6, albeit on a far less efficient shooting night.  But as mentioned above, Toronto is a better offensive team here at home where the Over is now 26-21-1 for the year. Also, the Raptors are 23-8 Over when coming off a double-digit loss the last three seasons. 

Theoretically, it should be easier for both teams to score inside as the starting centers are both out due to injury. Hassan Whiteside was a really strong defensive presence for the Heat and has been missed the last couple games.  While the Heat have been one of the top Under teams for most of the year, their scoring average definitely increased as soon as Joe Johnson came over and they are coming off a series high 103 points in Game 6.  Remember that Toronto often struggles to defend the three-point line.   Look for this deciding game to be feature more scoring than what the linesmakers expect. 10* Over Heat/Raptors

7* NY Yankees (1:05 ET):  The Pinstripes drew a tough assignment the last two days, first facing Chris Sale and then Jose Quintana. But they were able to salvage a split and today the pitching matchup seems firmly in their favor as Masahiro Tanaka opposes Miguel Gonzalez. It was a 2-1 final in the Yanks' favor yday and for the first time we were able to see their bullpen in "full effect" as Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman completely dominated the final three innings, combining for eight strikeouts and allowing only one hit. That's going to be a very dangerous trio moving forward and combined with the starting pitching edge, it's an easy call on the home team this afternoon.

Tanaka has an outstanding 0.928 WHIP in his seven starts so far, thus he should probably have a better team start record than only 4-3.  Then again, last time out, he was quite fortunate to get away w/ allowing six runs to Kansas City as the offense backed him up w/ a rare explosive day at the plate.  Presuming the Yankees offense even puts a few runs on the board here, we should be in good shape though.  Tanaka had not allowed more than 2 ER in any of his first six starts and remember that the Yankees won yday despite scoring only two runs. They're actually in a position now to win a third consecutive series.

Aiding New York's cause offensively is the fact they face the struggling Gonzalez, who has a 4.91 ERA and 1.727 WHIP in his two starts. He has not fared well in the past vs. the Yanks, especially on the road, where he is 0-3 w/ a 6.23 ERA his L5 starts at Yankee Stadium.  Chicago's bullpen has been really good thus far in its own right, but just mediocre on the road (3.40 ERA).  Gonzalez will now have to face Jacoby Ellsbury, who returns to the lineup today for the first time since May 6.  It's a clear pitching edge for the home team today and assuming they get up early, it's lights out from there with the tremendous bullpen now operating at full capacity.  7* NY Yankees

8* Seattle (9:10 ET):  The Mariners are a team few are talking about, but they should have your attention right now.  They lead the AL West and a +31 run differential verifies that they are legit. While they did lose yday's series opener to the Angels, I fully expect the M's to bounce back tonight as I'd put the Halos at the opposite end of the spectrum right now. Los Angeles was a team that I expected to struggle this year and being that they are so decimaned by injuries right now, it's going to be tough for them to consistently win games. They'd, in fact, dropped six in a row heading into yday. Seattle, meanwhile, has still won 16 of its last 22.

The Angels rotation is so bad (8.54 ERA L12 games) and besieged by injury right now that they had no choice but to go out and acquire Jhoulys Chacin from Atlanta. Chacin hardly looked great in his four starts this year w/ the Braves, particularly his last time out (May 4th) where he gave up eight runs in 4 2/3 IP.  This will be his Angels debut and it's a tough spot facing a lineup that has hit a collective .271 its last 21 games w/ 32 home runs (5.2 runs/game).  Something else to consider is that the Angels have not posted consecutive victories since a three-game win streak from April 25th-27th. Since that time, they've lost 10 of 13 games.

I realize that Hisashi Iwakuma's numbers are hardly awe-inspiring, but look for the Seattle starter to pitch well tonight.  He's allowed three runs or less in five of his seven starts this year, only to be victimized by poor run support. His strong history against the Angels (8-3 w/ 2.79 ERA in 14 career outings) gives me plenty of confidence in him here and in fact his best start of 2016 came against this opponent as back on April 22nd, he allowed just two runs over eight innings.  The M's won that game 5-2.  Keep in mind they were also up 6-3 heading into the eighth last night and were just two outs away from victory before giving up a two-run single in the top of the ninth.   They get revenge tonight.  8* Seattle

10* Over Reds/Phillies (7:10 ET):  The Phillies won another one-run game yday (now 13-3 in them!), beating the Reds by a score of 3-2.  This stunning start to the season has the Phils at 21-15 in spite of a -26 run differential. In my opinion, they are nowhere near as good as their record and due to fall off sooner rather than later.  But with Cincinnati (-54 run differential) providing the opposition this weekend, it's tough to buck Philly here while they're at home. But I do feel comfortable in projecting a much higher-scoring game than what we saw yday. Yes, both of tonight's starters have surprisingly good WHIPs and neither offense happens to be setting "the world on fire" currently. But this is a pretty low total, especially from the Reds' perspective.

So far, there's been only one time this month where a game involving Cincinnati has seen a O/U line lower than 8.5.  That game took place on May 2nd vs. the Giants and 15 total runs were scored (Reds lost 9-6).  Note that despite the consistently high totals, this team has seen the Over go 19-13-3 to this point.  Their struggling lineup figures to have a shot today against Aaron Nola, who has not been very good at all here at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies starter has an 8.25 ERA in his two home starts thus far and that includes him giving up seven runs the last time he pitched here.  Nola's last start, which resulted in a 6-5 win at Miami, also went Over the total.

Cincinnati sends Tim Adelman to the bump tonight and while he's pitched relatively well both times we've seen him (Reds won both times), it's not like he's pitched very deep into the games. That's troubling when you consider just how awful this team's bullpen has been in 2016 (6.14 ERA).  Also, the Reds are giving up an average of 6.1 runs per game on the road.  Seven of the last 10 times these teams have met, the Over has cashed, so consider last night's game an anomaly as we should see plenty of runs scored in this one.  10* Over Reds/Phillies

8* Kansas City (7:15 ET):  I'm not very high on the Royals this year as I expected them to regress in 2016 and regress they have (currently 17-18, -15 run differential). BUT, as yday showed, this series with Atlanta should be a relative "walk in the park."  The reigning World Series champs are still a strong 10-5 at home this season, so that's a good sign as is the fact the Braves are an absolutely atrocious 8-26 overall w/ a -69 run differential, both of which are MLB worsts. It was a 5-1 win for the home team on Friday behind seven strong innings from Edinson Volquez.  Dillon Gee makes his 1st start for the Royals tonight and I expect a similarly strong outing from him. 

  Gee has not started a game since last June when he was still with the Mets.  When the team that Kansas City beat in LY's World Series became so "pitching rich," Gee became expendable. But that by no means is to say he can't be a good starting pitcher. He had a lot of early success in his Mets' career and so far this season he's been effective coming out of the bullpen w/ a 2.61 ERA in seven appearances. He's struck out 16 batters in 20 2/3 IP.  Though he's transitioning from being a reliever, we should not worry about any kind of durability issues as at one point in his career he'd gone at least five innings in  51 consecutive starts, which at the time was the longest active streak in all of MLB.

Further helping Gee and the Royals' cause is the fact that Atlanta has the worst offense in the majors. We saw that last night when they managed only one run and they've now scored only 102 runs in 34 games, an average of just 3.0/game.  They are batting just .214 on the road this year and I don't think the simple addition of the DH to the lineup will be enough to cure what ills them. The Braves have scored only 19 runs total in the last eight games.  Making matters worse is that starter Mike Foltynewicz was rocked in his lone road start thus far, giving up four runs in just 3 2/3 IP.  So while Kansas City's results to this point have been disappointing, this is a series that they should most definitely sweep and I have them winning big tonight. 8* Kansas City

6* Cleveland (4:10 ET):  Over the last year, I've always felt for the Indians' Corey Kluber. It's not like the former Cy Young winner has pitched that much worse than he did in his award winning season (2014), he's just been far less "lucky."   Yes, there have been seven different times (in 39 starts) that he's allowed 5+ ER. But a lot of those results have come despite him still not putting many runners on base. Case in point; his last time out saw him give up five runs on five hits. Now he did last only 2 2/3 innings in a shocking performance vs. the Phillies, but that was his third loss this year where he allowed only five hits. (He went much longer in the other two).  The disparity between his WHIP (1.073) and ERA (4.14) tells me that Kluber is due to turn things around and it starts today against the worst team in the American League, Minnesota.

The Indians took last night's series opener, 7-6, thanks to scoring three runs in the bottom of the eighth. It was the Tribe's seventh win in the last 10 games overall and this is one of the seven AL teams playing well right now. They have a +15 run differential that is 6th best.  This should be a favorable series for them as the division rival Twins have now dropped eight in a row overall and are now 2-16 on the road. This game taking place during the afternoon does Minnesota no favors either as they are 3-11 so far in day games.  In some regard, they "wasted" a strong night at the plate yday as it was just the third time in the L18 games that they scored six runs. They'd averaged less than 3.0 rpg their previous seven contests, never scoring more than four.  So, I expect Kluber to hold this lineup in check pretty easily.

What's strange about Kluber's last outing is that he'd really seemed to have "turned a corner" as his previous three outings saw him allow just four runs and 12 hits in 24 IP, including one CG shutout (came here at home) w/ a 23-2 KW ratio.  Likewise, Minnesota's Ervin Santana is off his shortest outing of 2016, but he doesn't have the resume of Kluber and is just 4-10 w/ a 4.49 ERA in 19 career starts vs. the Indians. The team has lost all five of his starts this season and he's posted a 1.629 WHIP.  The Twins have now been outscored by 64 runs this season. 6* Cleveland

10* Under Mets/Rockies (8:40 ET):  I realize that taking the Under at Coors Field is always a bit of a scary proposition. The home team is just 5-10 here for the season and allowing nearly eight runs per game! But that number cannot possibly continue and this has to be the highest total for any Matt Harvey start in his young career.  Therefore, all the value is on the Under in this one as the Mets were just shut out last night and come in batting a woeful .210 the last seven days.  Colorado was 0-7 vs. the Mets last season and only twice did they manage to score more than three runs in a game against them.

Harvey has been brilliant in the first four innings of games this season, posting a 1.61 ERA. It's after that he runs into trouble. While there is some legit concern about the fact that this is his first time ever starting at Coors Field, I think that's mitigated by a couple of factors. One is that Harvey looked very good his last time out, allowing just two runs on four hits while mowing down 10 batters as his fastball topped out at 97 MPH.  Granted, that was at a much more pitcher-friendly environment (San Diego), but clearly it was a step in the right direction nonetheless.  Also, the Rockies have been held to two runs or less in three of their past five ball games. 

The Mets are allowing only 3.0 rpg and their pitching staff has the second best ERA in all of baseball (2.86).  Clearly, those numbers will be put to the test in this environment, but if the offense continues to struggle, then we should be in pretty good shape.  Over the L10 games, the Mets have been held to four runs or less eight times and been shut out on three occasions.  I get that they're are likely to improve simply because of park adjustments this weekend, but I don't think they'll improve to the degree the oddsmakers are calling for here.  Rockies starter Jon Gray just threw seven scoreless innings of one-hit ball his last time out and has allowed only two runs and five hits in his last 13 innings of work.  10* Under Mets/Rockies

6* Puck Line Tampa Bay (8:05 ET):  Please note that this is a selection on the Puck Line where I am taking the Lightning +1.5.  I haven't made too many PL selections thus far in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but given the fact that TB beat Pittsburgh all three times in the regular season, such a move is warranted here.  Not only did they beat the Pens all three times, but they really dominated the season series, outscoring them 15-9 even though Pittsburgh actually had the edge in shots in all three games. For all the talk about the Penguins being the hottest team in the league right now (and I admit that is justified), the Lightning have the better playoff record and are giving up just 1.9 goals per game.

I was on Tampa Bay in three of their four wins in the series vs. the Islanders, only laying off in the series clincher.  Goaltender Ben Bishop, who is going to be the key to this series for them, posted a .948 save percentage in the four wins and is now up to .937 in the playoffs.  I realize that we've all been somewhat underestimating rookie Matt Murray in this postseason run for the Penguins, but the Lightning should have the clear edge between the pipes in this series. Bishop has allowed more than two goals in only three of his past 12 playoff starts.  He stopped 64 of 69 shots in two regular season meetings vs. Pittsburgh. Given the fact that both teams rank in the top six in goals allowed and top seven on the penalty kill, this should be a low-scoring series. I know we can count on Bishop, so the +1.5 is a nice luxury to have. 

This is, by far, the longest odds we've seen on Tampa Bay for any game in the playoffs. In fact, it's the first time they've been listed at plus money. So there is some substantial value here and that opens up the opportunity for the PL to come into play.  Note that all four of Pittsburgh's wins in the Washington series came by exactly one goal and five of the six games in that series were decided by that very margin.  When taking the ice w/ three or more days rest this year, the Lightning are a strong 7-1.  Half of their playoff games have been decided by exactly one goal, with them winning all five. They will do no worse than a one-goal loss here. 6* Puck Line Tampa Bay (+1.5) 

8* Under Blue Jays/Rangers (8:05 ET):  Surprise, surprise.  Toronto comes into the weekend as the top Under team in all of baseball w/ a 23-10-3 mark including an 8-2-1 run here in May.  The key to this is their offense, which "lapped" the league LY in scoring, is down more than a full run per game and the oddsmakers really have yet to adjust properly. That's certainly the case here as we have a monster total. I realize that the starting pitching matchup doesn't seem conducive when you look at the YTD numbers, but both RA Dickey for Toronto and Martin Perez for Texas have actually been really solid of late.  Take the Under.

The Rangers come into tonight's series opener on a five-game Over streak.  Considering that they just played three games against the White Sox, whose pitching had been the best in all of baseball, that's a little surprising. They've averaged over eight runs per game themselves during the streak, but a number of their key hitters have struggled in the past against the knuckleballer Dickey, including Elvis Andrus (0 for 14 lifetime, most AB's vs. any pitcher w/o a hit) and Prince Fielder (4 for 18).  Earlier this month, in a series where Toronto took three of four, Dickey held this lineup to just one run over 6 2/3 IP. Unfortunately, the Jays lost the game, but I'll gladly take a repeat of the final score there, which was 2-1.  Starting opposite Clayton Kershaw his last time out, Dickey did allow four runs in 7 IP, but two were unearned.

The Blue Jays have yet to score more than four runs in any Dickey start this season, which has to be "music to the ears" of Rangers' starter Perez, who threw five scoreless innings against this opponent back on May 3rd.  Three of the four games in that series stayed Under, yet tonight's O/U line would be the highest for any of the matchups to date.  Perez limited the Tigers to just two runs on two hits his last time out and despite dealing with some control issues, I think he'll do just fine in this spot considering he's allowed 3 ER or less in six of his seven starts this year.  8* Under Blue Jays/Rangers

10* Toronto (8:05 ET):  Despite the struggles of both Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan throughout the playoffs, the Raptors now have a chance to clinch a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals. All they have to do is win tonight at Miami.  With the number being what it is, obviously, I'm thinking there's a very good chance that they do advance, but let's definitely make sure to take the points anyway.  As I said in my Game 5 analysis, Toronto was bound to experience some progression to the mean after covering only one of their previous eight games. They'd actually played much better than that ATS record indicates as you're about to read. 

In fact, Toronto has now led at the half in six of the last seven games with Game 4 of this series being the lone exception. Even in that game, they enjoyed a nine-point advantage with just a little over six minutes remaining in regulation before spectacularly blowing the cover in OT (Miami was never "in the money" until the final seconds). Game 5 finally saw both Lowry and DeRozan "wake up" as the starting backcourt combined for 59 points and the team never trailed at any point in the contest.  As underdogs this season, the Raptors are a strong 17-10 ATS with 14 outright victories.  I know that this postseason hasn't always been pretty for them, but they have outscored the Heat over the course of this series.

All of the games in this series have been pretty low-scoring, so that's another case for taking the points.  Toronto's eight-point win in Game 5 was the largest margin of victory in this series and consider that Miami has yet to win a game in regulation.  It was only a matter of time before Lowry and DeRozan got their games going and I feel that Wednesday marked the proverbial "turning of the corner."  The Heat, as I've said before, remain far too centered around Dwyane Wade on offense and without their best defender (Hassan Whiteside), are in trouble on that end of the floor as well.  Much will be made of Coach Spo's excellent ATS record when facing elimination, but this team is not as good as past editions as there's no LeBron James anymore.  10* Toronto

8* Washington (7:05 ET):  Both of these teams were able to win their previous series by taking the first and last games respectively.  Washington played three one-run games against Detroit while Miami won two low scoring games against Milwaukee and was routed in the one loss.  This is already the third time these NL East rivals have hooked up in 2016 and so far they're dead even at three games apiece. While this all sounds like we have a relatively even matchup on our hands for Friday, I feel it is anything but as the Nats send Gio Gonzalez to the bump against the struggling Tom Koehler for the Marlins. This one is all about the pitching matchup, plus Miami should definitely feel a little fortunate to be 18-15 given they've been outscored this year. Washington has the fourth best run differential in all of baseball.

Gonzalez has pitched better than his record (3-3 TSR) as he has a 2.19 ERA and 1.054 WHIP.  Here at home, both those numbers go down even further.  He is off his worst outing date, but that one was excusable as it came against the red hot Cubs.  The five runs he allowed at Wrigley were nearly equal to the total number of runs he'd allowed in his first five starts combined (6).   So tonight should be a good bounce back opportunity.  Of course, he's quite familiar with the Marlins, being that they are a division opponent, and since joining the Nats in 2012 his record here at home against them is 4-1 w/ a 1.64 ERA.  The Marlins averaged only three runs per game in the Milwaukee series.

Koehler has been a disaster on the road thus far with a 7.91 ERA and 2.123 WHIP.  Unlike Gonzalez, he is actually coming off his best start of the year, but that was against Philadelphia at home. So, as you can see, this is one of those great opportunities to "buy low" (w/ Gonzalez) and "sell high" (w/ Koehler) at the same time.  Three times Koehler has allowed 5+ runs this season and facing Bryce Harper has always been a problem for him.  Harper is 9 for 28 lifetime w/ six home runs vs. Koehler. That's his most HR's versus any pitcher.  8* Washington

8* Over Cardinals/Angels (10:05 ET):  The Cardinals are the third-highest scoring team in baseball to this point (5.5 runs per game) and figured to perform well offensively in this series w/ the addition of the DH to their lineup.  They've scored a total of 13 runs in a pair of wins thus far and when they go for the sweep tonight, they'll be facing a pitcher who has a 6.35 ERA and 1.765 WHIP his last three starts.  So, I'm pretty confident that we can count on them for this Over play.  Now we only need the Angels to start complying. The home team has scored just three runs in the series thus far, but I think they'll likely double that output here.

The last time that the Angels' Jered Weaver started on the road, he gave up seven runs in five innings.  It's even worse than it sounds too as that start came against Milwaukee, so it was in a NL park where he should have benefited from facing the pitcher.  But he obviously didn't and it ended up being his worst start to date.  Of course, pitching on the road has not been Weaver's forte ever since the start of last season. His road ERA of 6.01 last season was baseball's highest among qualified starters as batters hit .267 off him. It's also not a good sign that his fastball reportedly topped out at only 83 MPH his last time out.

St. Louis has made an overnight pitching change here, going w/ Adam Wainwright instead of Carlos Martinez.  That's just fine by me!  Wainwright hasn't been nearly as effective as Martinez this year and actually that's putting things quite mildly.  Wainwright has the worst ERA (6.30) and WHIP (1.50) in the Cardinals' starting rotation and that ERA is roughly four runs higher than Martinez's.  Wainwright has allowed at least 3 ER in every start, so there is hope for the Angels here.  He's also coming off his longest outing of the year (95 pitches), which was the first time all season where he did not walk a batter.  The first time through the lineup has been a major problem for Wainwright as he's allowed 11 first inning runs his L4 starts. Therefore, look for the Angels to put some runs on the board early and for this game to go Over the total - easily. 8* Over Cardinals/Angels

6* San Jose (9:05 ET): I had expected that the Sharks would have closed this series out by now. I admittedly lost on them in Game 6, which was their second OT loss in the last three games (lost Gm 4 in 3 OT's!), but I'll come right back with them here at home in the deciding Game 7.  Yes, Nashville has already won one Game 7 on the road this postseason (at Anaheim) and we saw the road team win last night's Game 7 (St. Louis, who I was on). But the road team has yet to win a game in this series and I think that trend "holds serve" when it matters most.

Throughout the year, I've always maintained that San Jose's very unusual home-road dichotomy was due to even out.  While it's nice that they were able to go a league-best 28-10-3 on the road during the regular season and then 3-0 in Los Angeles in Round 1, it was downright shocking that they were only 18-20-3 here at the Shark Tank coming into the playoffs. They only managed a split w/ the Kings in the last series, but as already mentioned, they are 3-0 here vs. the Predators. Why I felt that they were always due to start winning more on home ice is the simple fact that they've actually outscored opponents here over the course of the year and done so while holding a commanding edge in shots per game (32.5 to 25.5).  

Admittedly, San Jose was outshot badly (32 to 18!) in Game 6, and usually I would make the case that's not a positive sign. But they have outscored Nashville 20-15 in regulation over the course of the series and held the edge in shots in four of the six games.  The Predators are just one game over .500 for the season and are only 21-17 SU on the road.  The Sharks have won 17 of their last 21 games when the opponent comes in with a winning record (which hasn't always been the case in this series!). As I stated in yday's analysis for STL-DAL, the team that was favored in Game 6 tends to perform very well in Game 7's, now boasting a 27-19 record since '05 (Sharks were favored in Gm 6).  6* San Jose

10* Over Spurs/Thunder (8:35 ET):  It's a situation that few thought would be possible as San Antonio might not even make the Western Conference Finals. They face an elimination game tonight, on the road, and history is not kind them as under HC Greg Popovich they are just 2-10 straight up on the road in must-win playoff games. So that has me a little trepidacious taking them as a short favorite, but at the same time it would be a mistake to count this team out.  Therefore, we turn to the total. I've been right side of the Over/Under three times already in this series and here I'm calling for the highest scoring game since the opener as San Antonio should bounce back from a rather dreadful 39.8% shooting performance in Game 5. Take the Over.

Defensively, we know what the Spurs are all about. They were #1 in efficiency - by a wide margin - in the regular season.  In the playoffs, they are giving up an average of just 90.7 points per game.  But that number is somewhat skewed due to facing a severely undermanned Memphis team in Round 1.  The Thunder have beaten that same average in every game in this series and were of course #2 in the league in offensive efficiency during the regular season (obviously trailing Golden State).  The Thunder average 109.7 PPG for the year and while they've broken 100 just one time in the series, that time was the last home game.  The Spurs allow roughly five more points per game on the road than they do at home.

However, as alluded to above, the driving force behind this Over play is the fact that I'm projecting San Antonio to shoot significantly better here than they did in Game 5.  Something to note is that they were actually 8 of 18 from three-point range Tuesday, which means they were only 27 of 70 (38.5%) on two-point attempts, a shockingly poor performance. This is a team that shoots above 48 percent for the year.  They haven't been at or above that number since the blistering Game 1 performance when they shot better than 60% en route to 124 points and a blowout victory. That might seem like "forever ago" now, but this team averages more than 103 PPG.  OKC is 6-1 Over as a home dog of three points or less.  10* Over Spurs/Thunder

8* Under Padres/Brewers (8:10 ET):  San Diego has been shut out a MLB-high eight times, so when it comes to the total, the Under should always be your natural inclination. Today would also likely be a good time to "sell high" on the Padres seeing as they just swept a day-night doubleheader from the Cubs yday, clearly their crowning achievement of this still young season.  One of those victories (second game) came by a score of 1-0 with the two teams combining for only seven hits.  This game, like yday's, isn't at Petco Park where the Over was highly profitable in 2015.  They play a Milwaukee team that is off a 3-2 loss, so this series opener shapes up to be a low-scoring affair.

The Padres are actually 23rd in runs scored, which isn't good, but it's a higher ranking than what I expected. But they are also 25th in batting average, 28th in OBP and 27th in slugging. So they should probably feel a little fortunate to have scored as many runs as they have and we saw what happened last night after they'd put seven on the board in the first game of the twinbill.  I expect the San Diego lineup to struggle tonight against Brewers starter Jimmy Nelson, who has pitched very well in the past here at Miller Park where he's 7-2 w/ a 2.90 ERA in 12 outings. In his lone career home start vs. the Padres, he allowed just one run (was unearned) and three hits over 6 2/3 IP.  That game, a 4-1 Milwaukee win, easily stayed Under the total.

Nelson is due to bounce back from a poor outing his last time out (allowed six runs in 5 IP) where the team still won (13-7 at Cincinnati) as he had gone 4-1 w/ a 3.19 ERA in his first five starts. Also due for a bounce back performance is Padres starter James Shields, who matched a season-high w/ 4 ER allowed his last time out.  Shields had allowed just 2 ER (in 13 IP) his previous two turns in the rotation.   The issue for him is that the offense has not scored more than three runs in any of his starts this year, but that's not a problem for us, in fact it's what we're hoping for!  This will likely close as the highest O/U for any Padres game this season, so there's some clear value to be had. 8* Under Padres/Brewers

8* Boston (7:10 ET):  The Red Sox are coming off an incredibly successful series. I had them yday (13-3 win!) as they finished off a sweep of the A's, whom they outscored 40-15 over the course of the three games. Boston now owns an AL-best +48 run differential thanks to an offense that has caught the Cubs for most runs scored in all of baseball. Therefore, the fact that they are available at this price w/ David Price pitching seems to be a steal. Granted, Price has not pitched particularly well for his new team and will be opposed by Dallas Keuchel here. But I feel a rebound for Price is highly likely and last year's Cy Young winner (Keuchel) simply is not as effective on the road as he is at Minute Maid Park in Houston.

The Astros have been one of the real early season disappointments so far. Even after winning yday (took 16 innings!), their record still stands at just 14-21 and they've posted B2B victories just twice. Coming off a marathon game before traveling does them no favors for this series opener, especially considering they are just 4-10 on the road to begin with.  Shockingly, the team has lost each of Keuchel's last four starts, the last two coming at home where he was unbeaten all of last year.  In four road starts, he has a 5.84 ERA and 1.621 WHIP, which is clearly not good and here he'll be facing perhaps the hottest lineup in all of MLB (8.0 runs L7 games). Behind Keuchel is a bullpen that's really struggling. Houston relievers have posted a 6.45 ERA on the road thus far and that group is obviously taxed after yday.

With a lineup that's batting an incredible .336 over the last week, there's really no excuses here for Price, who needs to start justifying that large contract Boston gave him in the offseason.  He's coming off B2B outings where he allowed 6 ER, but both were against the Yankees, who are an opponent he always seems to struggle against.  Five of his six starts have been against AL East teams, who are the opponents most familiar with him. Still, Price has a winning TSR due to his prolific offense and I'm forecasting improvement for him as his 2.85 FIP is sixth best among American League starters and he's still striking out 11.54 K's per nine innings.  Houston is batting a collective .216 on the road this year. 8* Boston

10* Golden State (10:35 ET):  With the return of Steph Curry, this series is all but over. Tonight, I'll not only call for the Warriors to advance, but to do so in rather emphatic fashion. Losing Game 4 all but sealed the Blazers' fate as this has not been a great road team this season (just 17-29 straight up) and they've been outscored by almost five points per game with the rest of the competition obviously not even close to Golden State's level.  Furthermore, Portland is just 12-28 ATS its last 40 games in Oakland, including 1-6 ATS the L3 seasons.  Lay the points. 

Curry set a record for most points ever scored by a player in overtime w/ 17 in Game 4 as the team overcame an early 16-2 hole to not only win, but cover the spread as well.  I had the Warriors, so I was certainly happy to see that. Yes, it took a vintage performance from the MVP, but if Golden State is able to still cover in that situation, you have to like their chances here as they return home for Game 5.  They are now 44-2 at home this year (won Games 1 and 2 by double digits - w/o Curry) and the average margin of victory is +13.7 points per game.   Portland has been a road underdog of this size only one time this year and you guessed it, it was here.  They lost that game (on March 11th) by 16 points.

Even playing without Curry for the vast majority of the time, Golden State is still winning by an average of 12.4 points per game in the playoffs.  They've been the second most efficient offense (1.12 points per possession) and as I've said all season, their defense is very underrated as they are also second in terms of efficiency there during the postseason.  Portland actually has a negative scoring differential in the playoffs and after playing their best in the last two games and only coming away w/ a split (Curry didn't play when they won), it's tough to like their chances here given the opponent.  10* Golden State

9* St. Louis (9:05 ET):  Despite not having the home ice advantage, the Blues were favored to win this series and I personally bet them when they moved to +140 after dropping Game 1. They were in position to advance Monday, but shockingly lost Game 6 on home ice as they fell behind 3-0 after the first period.  This will be St. Louis' second Game 7 of these playoffs as they already beat the more battled-tested Blackhawks in Round 1. Though this one takes place on the road, I believe them to be the better club and I just don't trust the Stars' goaltending in this situation.

Brian Elliott was supposed to be the difference maker this year for the Blues. But he was pulled after the disastrous first period on Monday, which proved to be too big a hole for the team to climb out of.  However, he still owns a solid .926 save percentage in the playoffs and over the course of the entire year he's been even better in road games (.935) w/ St. Louis going 17-7.  Twice in this series, Elliott has held what was the league's highest scoring team during the regular season to just one goal.  Simply put, I trust him more than I do Kari Lehtonen, who has not always been the most reliable option between the pipes this season. 

Then there is the matter that the Blues dominated Game 6 in terms of shots on goal by a 37-14 margin.   It was one fluky good period that kept Dallas alive as otherwise I felt that St. Louis really controlled the game.  Remember that the road team has now on the the last three games of this series and four of the six games overall.  Road teams have actually posted a winning record in Game 7's since 2005 and also the team that was favored in Game 6 is 26-19 in Game 7's during that same time.  9* St. Louis

8* Toronto (8:05 ET):  The fact that the Raptors have been outscored in the postseason (-1.4 PPG) probably does not bode well for them moving forward, but nevertheless I feel that there have been multiple instances of them "snatching defeat from the jaws of victory" in recent games. One such time was Game 4, their second overtime loss of this series.  Ironically, that was the first game of the series where they did NOT have a halftime lead, but they were up by nine with just a little over six minutes to go in regulation. Now only 1-7 ATS their last eight games overall, at least they are back home where they have outscored opponents by roughly six points per game over the course of the year (36-11 straight up). I'll call for them to regain the series lead and cover w/ room to spare.

It was pretty brutal to see the Raptors "give away" the cover in overtime Monday night.  "Give away" might sound like a strong phrase, but consider the Heat were never "in the money" until the final seconds of OT.  They also never led, save for 13 seconds, in the fourth quarter. Despite the win, Miami remains far too Dwayne Wade-centric as the rest of the team shot a pretty dreadful 23 of 56 from the floor.  The Heat have also been pretty horrible from three-point range the L2 games (5 of 33), including 1 of 15 in Game 4, and keep in mind those were both home games!  On the road, the team's scoring average dips to 96.3 points per game and remember they are w/o Hassan Whiteside, who is a game-changer on the defensive end.

When Terrance Ross is your leading scorer with only 14 points on 4 of 10 shooting and you still almost win on the road, I think you should actually feel pretty good about yourself in the next game. That's the situation here for the Raptors, who continue to get next to nothing from their two All-Stars, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. However, here at home, I think one or both are more apt to turn things around.  Meanwhile, Wade was only 7 of 17 for 17 points the last game here in Toronto, a 96-92 Raptors win.  Miami has a losing record on the road this season, having been outscored by an average of two points per game. 8* Toronto

8* Boston (7:10 ET):  The Red Sox appear to be "as good as advertised" this year as they are second in wins among American League clubs and first in run differential (+38).  They've won three straight, scoring 27 runs in this series alone and tonight look to finish off the sweep with Rick Porcello (0.958 WHIP) on the hill.  Offensively, this club is blowing away the rest of the field in the A.L as they've scored 183 runs, which is 23 more than the second best team. This shapes up as a total mismatch with an Oakland club that the Red Sox are 7-1 against since the start of last season.

The A's are trending in a very bad direction right now as they've lost eight of their last nine games and given up a total of 38 runs in the last three.  You certainly aren't going to win many games doing that and it certainly doesn't help that they are in the bottom half of the American League in runs scored anyway. Making matters worse here is that they'll be sending a starter with a 5.58 ERA and 1.913 WHIP to the hill. That would be Eric Surkamp, who is making his return to the big leagues after already being demoted to Triple A Nashville.  Having only once lasted longer than five innings (in four starts), this is probably not the most desirable spot for Surkamp to rejoin the rotation.

Meanwhile, Boston has Porcello, who is having a great 2016.  He is coming off five consecutive quality starts and ranks in the top 10 in KW ratio w/ a 5.13.  He's been lights out here at Fenway (0.787 WHIP) and his last time starting here he delivered seven scoreless innings of five-hit ball.  Backed by the American League's best offense, I see no reason why Porcello won't be dominant again here as batters are hitting just .111 against his change-up and .190 against his slider.   8* Boston

8* Run Line Detroit (7:05 ET):  Please note that this a run line play only where I am taking the Tigers +1.5.  I actually played Washington in the season opener here (w/ Strasburg on the mound) and while I won that selection, note the game was decided by a one-run margin and the Nationals had to rally back from an early 4-1 hole before winning in walk-off fashion. It was another one-run game yday, this one going Detroit's way however, as the game was essentially decided on a replay call.  Tonight, the Tigers will be sending Jordan Zimmerman out to the hill and he's quite familiar w/ the Nats being that he played for them the last seven seasons. I feel the road team will do no worse than a one-run loss here.

Zimmerman will face his former teammate and friend Max Scherzer here.  While that sounds like an elite pitching matchup, Zimmerman is clearly having the better season of the two so far.  He comes in with a 5-1 record, 1.10 ERA and 1.049 WHIP.  That ERA is currently the best in baseball among qualified starters.  Last time out, Zimmerman did give up a season high 3 ER and lost for the first time, opposite Cole Hamels.  But consider that was more earned runs allowed than what he'd given up in his first five starts - combined. Obviously, Zimmerman should feel comfortable pitching in this environment given how many times he's pitched here before. There's also the fact that he's 3-0 w/ a 0.47 ERA in three road starts so far.

The season is still young, but Scherzer is off to a poor start that has him posting some of the worst numbers in his career.  He has a 4.60 ERA and has already given up nine home runs.  He was shelled for seven runs, and allowed four of those homers, his last time out.   Though the Tigers had lost seven straight games going into yday, they're a better team than that and I would not be the least bit surprised to see them come away with the victory here.  8* Run Line Detroit (+1.5)

8* Texas (2:05 ET):  The Rangers rallied back from a five-run deficit to stun the White Sox last night, scoring seven runs in the bottom of the eighth to earn themselves a 13-11 victory. With the quick turnaround between games, I certainly believe that it's "advantage home team" here as the two play the rubber match of the three-game set. We all know that Chicago has enjoyed tremendous success so far in 2016, but perhaps it's time to "pump the breaks" a little bit on them.  Before last night, White Sox pitching had been otherworldly in the late innings w/ a lead, so something like that was bound to happen. Today, I think that for once the starting pitching matchup will NOT be in the Sox favor. 

Mat Latos, who turned in a 4.95 ERA last season playing for three different teams, is one of four pitchers who currently is unbeaten with a TSR of 6-0 or better. The other three names on the list should all sound familiar: Arrieta, Sale, Strasburg.  You'll note that Chicago has two of the four pitchers in its rotation, so that certainly helps explain this fast start of theirs. But Latos is certainly an outlier and has shown signs of regression in his previous two outings by giving up 4 ER each time (in just 10 total IP) and three home runs.  The offense has been able to bail him out, but that will be a lot tougher to do here with Cole Hamels pitching for the Rangers.

Hamels is also unbeaten in six starts (4-0), though his TSR is 5-1.  His numbers are basically identical to Latos (2.68 ERA, 1.216 WHIP), the only difference being that Hamels is coming off an outstanding outing, one where he gave up only one hit in seven scoreless innings at Detroit.  Texas is quietly putting together a nice little season so far (19-15, +13 run differential) and earlier I mentioned the benefit of being the home team with this quick turnaround between games. Well, the Rangers record as home favorites in the -125 to -150 price range is 3-0 this season and 18-9 the L3 seasons.  Offensively, this team has also scored eight or more runs in three of its last four games.  8* Texas

10* NY Mets (10:10 ET):  This series is a battle of two teams that came into 2016 w/ legit World Series aspirations, but so far the Mets have proven themselves to be the better ballclub. Not only did they just beat the Dodgers last night, 4-2, but they are 20-11 on the year w/ a +44 run differential that is second best in all of baseball (though way behind the record-setting Cubs). Meanwhile, Los Angeles is just a .500 team (though +12 in run differential).  Having to face Clayton Kershaw and Kenta Maeda the next two days, I believe it is imperative that the Mets take advantage of the edge they'll have in starting pitching tonight.

  Remember that the Mets eliminated the Dodgers in LY's playoffs.  Jacob de Grom won two of the three games for his team in that series and will be the one getting the baseball tonight.  In those two playoff victories, de Grom allowed just 2 ER in 13 IP and it's important to note both outings took place here at Chavez Ravine.  Predictably, de Grom is off to a fine beginning to 2016 w/ a 1.99 ERA in four starts, though he did take a surprising loss to the Padres his last time out. I expect him to bounce back here, however, as he has a 1.01 career WHIP vs. the Dodgers. 

   Dodgers starter Alex Wood gave up three home runs to a pretty light-hitting Rays lineup his last time out, so that certainly doesn't bode well when facing a Mets team that actually led the NL last year in runs scored on the road.  Sure enough, the reigning Senior Circuit champs are averaging more runs per game on the road than at home this year (4.7) and that's a big reason why they are 11-5 outside of Citi Field.   Not only are the Dodgers just 5-9 at home this year, but they are 0-4 when the money line is -100 to -125, dropping them to 6-17 in that price range the L3 seasons.  10* NY Mets

10* LA Angels (10:05 ET):  If you got a chance to check out my analysis from Sunday, then you know that I'm not very high on the Angels this season. I'd said that before and in fact at the outset of the season I called for a last place finish in the American League West. Sure enough, they got swept by the Rays here at home over the weekend and now find themselves five games under .500 with a -17 run differential.  But they have been pretty good in games when Hector Santiago has toed the rubber (5-1 record) and I see them putting an end to this home losing streak of theirs tonight against a St. Louis team that just has the feel of being pretty unlucky this year.

  The Cardinals have a .500 record, but are +40 in run differential. Normally, this would lead me to believe the a long win streak might soon be forthcoming, but something tells me that this club is going to pay for the last several years of overachieving.  We've come to expect the Redbirds being one of the best teams in baseball year in and year out, but in 2016 they just don't look as good on paper. One key has been they have gone from #1 in runs allowed in 2015 to a middle of the pack ranking this year. Tonight's starter Mike Leake, acquired in the offseason, has certainly played a significant role in that as he's posted a 6.03 ERA in six starts. Still winless, Leake allowed at least four runs in every start this year. His record in Interleague Play is poor (1-5, 7.44 ERA L8 starts), particularly on the road where he is winless.

As mentioned earlier, Santiago has offered a "ray of hope" for an injury-ravaged Angels club. Not only is his team start record 5-1 this season, but going back to the start of September, the team is 11-1 the L12 times he's been on the mound.  That includes five straight wins at home where he's posted a 2.69 ERA his L19 starts.  Santiago has a 1.00 WHIP in his two home starts this year and provided he gets the requisite amount of help from his offense, I see no reason why the Halos (who are favored to win tonight) don't get the job done.  10* LA Angels

9* Pittsburgh (8:05 ET):  Last night we saw two teams, Dallas and Nashville, force a Game 7 and that's the fate that would await the Penguins were they to lose here. Fortunately for them, I'm calling for an end to this high-profile series vs. the Capitals as the scene shifts back to Pittsburgh where the Pens have lost only one time in five tries in these playoffs. While it's true that I was on Washington in both of their wins (and in one of their losses), I think it's pretty clear that Pittsburgh has established itself as the better team in this series. 

  Though they lost Game 5, by a score of 3-1, the Penguins actually dominated in terms of shots on goal with a 31-19 edge.  Game 3, which they wound up winning anyway, is the only game that the Pens have been significantly outshot in the series.  So many times throughout this postseason, we have seen a team lose a game despite having a big edge in shots and then come back to take the following game. Ironically, that did NOT happen for the Capitals in Game 4 (lost in overtime) and that will probably be what costs them this series.  While I absolutely respect what Washington has done this year, including a 29-17 road record, Pittsburgh has simply been the better team down the stretch w/ a 34-11-2 overall record dating back to January 21st. 

  Though Matt Murray played probably his worst game of the playoffs on Saturday, there is no denying the key role the goaltender has played in this postseason run for the Penguins.  He still boasts a .937 save percentage and has been better in the last four games than Braden Holtby, which is a surprise.  Also, keep in mind that Pittsburgh is winning this series despite relatively minimal contributions from both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin to this point. One would think that at least one of their stars is "due" for a good game here. Getting back to the team's incredible second half to the season, the Penguins have not dropped B2B games since mid-January and are 14-5 this season following a loss by two goals or more.  9* Pittsburgh 

8* Under Thunder/Spurs (8:05 ET): As you already know, I've had a great deal of success in this series. Oklahoma City is coming off a 111-97 win in Game 4, which was easily their best showing of the four games so far. But if this season has taught us anything it's to expect a bounce back from San Antonio here as save for a relatively meaningless end of the season losing streak, they have been deadly off a SU loss.  They are 14-2 in this situation (11-5 ATS), winning by an average of 14.5 points per game. However, I'm actually a little leery of laying all these points and instead am going to play the total. Coming off the first game all series where BOTH sides shot relatively well, I can't help but think we'll be seeing fewer points scored in Game 5. Therefore, I'm on the Under.

  The key to San Antonio's ability to bounce back from a loss this season seems to be them refocusing on the defensive end. They've allowed an average of only 90.3 PPG in this situation and that includes a 100-96 win in Game 3 where I was on the Under as well (play cashed by a few points).  What makes me even more confident in taking the Under here (compared to Gm 3) is that the Spurs are at home where they give up only 90.4 PPG for the year.  This was of course the #1 team in the league in terms of defensive efficiency during the regular season and they've posted a near-identical rating so far in the playoffs.  By the way, the Under is 26-12-2 this season when the Spurs failed to cover the spread in their previous game.

  Oklahoma City got 41 points from Kevin Durant in Game 4 and shot better than 50 percent as a team.  I reckon that we'll see both of those number go down tonight.  The Thunder scored 66 points in the second half of Game 4 (shot 57 percent), which is a lot against any team, but especially vs. the Spurs.  The good news is that San Antonio simply has not allowed 100+ pts in B2B games very often.  In fact, that's happened only five times all year! When talking about the Spurs on offense, they seem to have stagnated as their number of assists continues to go down with each game in the series and relative to the other teams left in the playoff field, the three-pointer is not as big a weapon.  The Thunder have allowed less than 100 PPG in the playoffs (98.6 PPG) and are 9-5 Under as an underdog this season.  I find it interesting that the O/U line came down half a point despite the overwhelming number of bets being on the Over (about 80%).  So, that's a sign "sharp money" is on the Under here and I am too.  8* Under Thunder/Spurs

10* Atlanta (7:05 ET):  The Braves are the worst team in baseball (both in terms of record & run differential) and this will be just the second time all season that they have been favored on the money (lost 4-2 to Arizona on Saturday as -120 faves). They are an ungodly 1-15 here at Turner Field as well. But they keys to this somewhat unusual selection are that they have a starter who has actually looked very good in 2016 (despite having a 1-4 team start record) and that the opponent has been overachieving to such a degree that soon regression is inevitable.  I'll step out on a limb here and call for a rare Atlanta victory. 

  Starting tonight for the home team will be Matt Wisler (0.928 WHIP), who as you can tell is absolutely deserving of a better WL record. He finally got his first win last Tuesday, as a +205 ML dog no less. That came opposite Matt Harvey as Wisler tossed an absolute gem, holding the Mets to just one hit over eight scoreless innings..  Opponents are now hitting only .175 against Wisler for the season, which is the sixth lowest batting average allowed by any pitcher in all of baseball!  Something else to consider here is that he's working on 6+ days rest and in the past that's been very advantageous for him.  In five career starts w/ that much rest, he's 4-0 w/ a 2.52 ERA.

  Philadelphia is somehow 18-14 despite a -27 run differential. In addition to scoring only 104 runs in 32 games, they have a .227 team batting average and .643 OPS. Atlanta is the only team worse than them in those three categories, but the key for the Phillies has been "luck" as in a MLB-best 11-3 record in one-run games.  That won't continue forever and, in fact, I expect the record to start regressing to the mean very shortly.  While the Braves might have the terrible home record, they did go 7-2 against the Phils here last season.  Phillies starter Adam Morgan has a 6.00 ERA and 1.556 WHIP after two starts which have seen him give up six runs and 11 hits in only nine innings of work.  This is one of the few games  - and series for that matter - that on paper the Braves have a good chance at winning.  10* Atlanta

10* Golden State (10:35 ET): The Warriors actually finished behind the Spurs in terms of efficiency rating during the regular season (+11.8 to +11.6), but thanks to San Antonio losing last night the defending champs now clearly have the best playoff resume w/ a +15.9 efficiency rating (San Antonio is +12.3).  Keep in mind they've basically been w/o Steph Curry for the duration of the postseason, so I'm still not concerned that he likely won't be returning for Game 4 tonight against Portland. This is Golden State off a loss, a role they are 10-0 straight up in this season w/ the average margin of victory coming by 15.8 points per game.

Game 3 here in Portland was clearly the Warriors' worst outing of this postseason as they were beaten 120-108 as 2.5-pt chalk.  Their only other playoff loss came by a single point in Houston and that was largely a result of a poorly officiated finish.  There were a few things that stood out to me from Game 3, one being that Golden State made only 10 free throws on 17 attempts (Portland was 23 of 29).  The Blazers also connected on 56.7% of their three-point attempts (17 of 30).  Finally, Damian Lillard scored 40 points.  I do not anticipate seeing "history repeat itself" in any of those departments tonight.  Keep in mind that Portland has actually been outscored in the postseason.

The Warriors are more than just Curry.  They have Klay Thompson, who has already made 36 three-pointers in eight games. That number actually breaks Curry's record (set last year) for most three-pointers made in a team's first eight games of a postseason run.  Don't forget Draymond Green either. So far in this series, he is averaging 25.7 points, 12 rebounds and 8.6 assists per game.  That's "LeBron-like" and other than simply "playing out of their minds" like they did on Saturday, I do not believe the Blazers have an adequate answer.  Yes, Portland is a strong home team (32-13 SU this season), but not only are the Warriors a perfect 10-0 SU off a loss this year, they have gone 6-3-1 ATS in those games.  10* Golden State

10* Toronto (10:15 ET): Safe to say that the Blue Jays and Giants, two teams that have World Series aspirations, aren't where they thought they'd be in the standings at this juncture of the season.  I think Toronto has been a little more "unlucky" as they have a +11 run differential despite being a game under .500. Meanwhile, 17-16 San Francisco is just +1, so their differential is actually a more accurate representation of how they've played.  While a play on the Jays typically revolves around a discussion of their offense, here it is a case of them having a clear advantage in the starting pitching department.  They may have let me down yday, but I'm back on MLB's Canadian contingent again.

Aaron Sanchez has made one bad start this season (4.22 vs. Oakland), but other than that he's been very good.  That's especially true on the road where he has a 0.86 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in three tries.  Two of those have come at Tampa Bay, but the other was at Boston (AL leader in runs scored) and he's allowed a grand total of two runs in 21 IP on just 13 hits. Remember that here he has the advantage of getting to face the pitcher.  Toronto has typically done well for itself in Interleague Play as they sport a 26-16 record vs. the NL since the start of the 2014 season.

I was somewhat shocked to see the Giants have to settle for a split - here at home - against the Rockies over the weekend. After a 2-1 win on Saturday (game went 13 innings), they were actually shut out on Sunday, 2-0. So that's B2B games where the offense failed to score in nine innings and that does not bode well as they have to give the baseball to Jake Peavy tonight.  Peavy has been truly wretched in his six starts so far, posting a 9.00 ERA and 1.897 WHIP.  He's allowed as many runs in his L2 starts as Sanchez has all season.  Yes, Toronto loses the DH from its lineup, but they are still strong enough to take advantage of Peavy's season-long struggles, which include him giving up seven runs and four HR's to a terrible Cincinnati team his last time out.  10* Toronto

8* Seattle (10:10 ET):  Seeing Felix Hernandez with only a 3-3 team start record and available at this price, at home, both seem pretty odd.  So I'll definitely "buy low" on King Felix here as the Mariners are a team more people should be talking about given their +26 run differential, which is currently second best in the entire American League.  I took Tampa Bay yday as they finished off a sweep of the downtrodden Angels, but I'm interested to see how they perform now that they're above .500 for the first time all year. My guess is that it's time to "sell high" on them.

This will be just the third time that Hernandez has gotten to pitch at home.  The previous two times have seen him not give up a single run (only eight hits allowed) in 14+ IP.  Now, he is coming off - easily - his worst start of 2016 to date as he allowed eight runs (four unearned) at Oakland last Wednesday.  But also consider that was more runs than he allowed in his previous five starts combined.  He'd allowed 1 or 0 earned runs in four of those first five starts.  This should be a good matchup for him as the Rays are tied for 27th in runs scored (third fewest) in all of baseball.  In 15 career starts vs. TB, Hernandez is 7-2 w/ a 1.90 ERA and that includes a perfect 6-0 in the 10 that have come at home (10-0 team start record). 

The Rays will have to lean on Matt Moore in this one and the problem with that is he's 0-3 his last three starts and was also shelled his last time out.  The Dodgers touched him up for seven runs in just 4 1/3 innings and there's now been only one start all year where Moore didn't give up a home run. That's bad news when getting set to face a hitter the likes of Robinson Cano (AL's home run leader), who is batting .514 the last eight games with four HR's.  The Mariners' offense - as a whole - underperformed the L3 days, but I see them turning it around tonight at Safeco Field where they are due to break out (just 5-7 at home so far). 8* Seattle