8* Over Magic/Wizards (7:05 ET): I surely believed that I was holding a winning Over ticket on the Magic's last game (Sunday) when the score was 78-73 (in their favor) after three quarters. The total was only 195.5 points there, but unfortunately they and the Pistons combined for only 39 fourth quarter points. Of course, Orlando won't complain as they managed to upset what had been a red hot Detroit team as seven-point underdogs. Tonight, it's a trip to the Nation's Capital to take on the reeling Wizards, who just played last night and won 118-113 in Brooklyn. Ironically, the Wiz have posted B2B wins only one time all year and that came at the Magic's expense! I don't want to lay the number here, but at the same time I don't want to back Orlando off a SU dog win. Therefore, we turn to the total and my read here is the same as it was for the Magic's last game. Take the Over. 

Admittedly, the Under is now 9-2 in Magic road games and this team is rated 29th in offensive efficiency, just ahead of Philadelphia. But the O/U lines are starting to get lower and we can now take advantage. This is already the third meeting of the year between these Southeast Division rivals and while the first two (both played in Orlando) stayed Under, you should expect better all-around shooting tonight. In the first meeting, neither side shot 40% from the field. That's rare. The rematch, played on November 25th, saw them combine to go a woeful 13 of 52 from three-point range. Sunday saw the Magic shoot 53.2% from the field in Detroit.

The opponent here is more conducive for an Orlando Over than it was Sunday. Washington gives up plenty of points, as we saw last night. For the year, they are allowing 106.2 PPG, which is bottom 10 in the league. They just allowed 113 last night to a Brooklyn team which ranks pretty low in offensive efficiency. It was their third straight Over, all of those game seeing both them and the opponent top 100 points. The Over is 3-1 this season when Washington is playing in the second game of a back to back and 26-17 L3 seasons in the situation. The Wiz are shooting 37.7% from three-point range at home, but the fact they allow an even higher percentage should ensure this game is higher scoring than expected. 8* Over Magic/Wizards

8* New Jersey (7:05 ET): The Devils snapped a four-game losing streak on Saturday w/ a 5-4 OT win at Nashville. That result was well overdue considering three of the Devils' losses in the losing streak had come in extra time. This is a team that's gone beyond regulation quite a bit already this season as in 8 of the last 13 games. You'd actually have to go all the way back to November 12th (vs. Buffalo) to find the last time they won a game in regulation, but fortunately for tonight they are drawing a bad Vancouver club here at home. Even better is that the Canucks are off a win here and they have posted B2B wins just once since a surprising 4-0 start.

Since that 4-0-0 start (all one-goal victories), Vancouver has gone 7-12-2 and been outscored by 21 goals. I feel this is clearly one of the worst teams in the league as they rank 28th in goals scored, 25th in goals allowed and 26th on the power play. They have a 3-7-1 road record while being outscored by 0.8 goals per game. Even worse is the fact the Canucks are giving up a ton of shots lately as in 33.8 per game over their last five. Twice in the last three games they've allowed 40+ shots and somehow managed to win both times. I don't believe that tonight's likely starter, Ryan Miller, will be able to stay as sharp. His save percentage is just .899 vs. Eastern Conference opponents this year.

Ironically, New Jersey has been scoring plenty of late, but it hasn't translated into wins. They've needed five in each of the last two wins. This is a team accustomed to getting strong play between the pipes for Cory Schneider, but the netminder has struggled of late. I expect Schneider to turn things around, however. For the season, his save percentage at home is still .920. The Devils have also won 7 of their 9 home games thus far, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals per game. The price here is more than justifiable. 8* New Jersey

10* Ball State (7:00 ET): Revenge alert! Ball State lost at Bradley last year, 54-53 as two-point favorites. As you can ascertain from that final score, it was a pretty miserable night shooting the ball for both teams. This year, the Cardinals get to play host and have the additional motivation of being of a loss, here at home no less. They fell Saturday to IUPUI, as six-point favorites, 73-62. As was the case w/ the play on Rider last night, I don't see our side dropping B2B home games. Bradley is also off a home loss here, theirs more severe, as they fell 91-69 to Nevada. The Braves have pulled off a few upsets this year, but not here. Lay the points. 

Ball State is actually just 1-2 SU here in Muncie, losing outright as the betting favorite twice. The first came to Indiana State back on November 15th. Then there was Saturday's setback. The lone home win for the Cardinals so far was against a non-D1 foe (Indiana-Kokomo). That being said, poor shooting was to blame for both home losses. I see the Cards shooting the ball better here against a Bradley team that just gave up 91 points on 55.6% shooting. Saturday's loss was a tough one for BSU as they led IUPUI 36-29 at halftime and led by 11 w/ 14:37 to go. They shot just 33.3% in the second half and scored only four points in the final four minutes. They were 3 of 10 from the FT line w/ only two of those attempts coming after halftime. Bottom line is the Cardinals know they let one slip away Saturday and should come out highly motivated.

Poor shooting was again the culprit in LY's loss at Bradley. Ironically, Bradley shot worse though. The Braves were held to 31.9% from the floor, including 5 of 20 from three-point range. But making nine more free throws than BSU did was the difference in a one-point game. Bradley's game Saturday vs. Nevada was a part of the Mountain West vs. Missouri Valley Challenge and saw the Braves fall behind by 20 at halftime. They never led in what was a very one-sided affair. Bradley has won just 3 of its last 25 "true" road games, one of those wins being an upset LW at Eastern Illinois. I wouldn't look for them to make it two in a row. 10* Ball State

10* NY Jets (8:30 ET): I readily concede to you that the Jets are not world-beaters (I have them ranked 28th in the league coming into this game), but who are the Colts (ranked 24th) to be laying points on the road? Even w/ QB Andrew Luck back in the fold, Indy is not a very impressive team. They're 5-6 SU and been outscored by 31 points this season. Without Luck (concussion), they were whipped badly by the Steelers on Thanksgiving night, losing 28-7 in one of the more lopsided games of last week. The Colts have now been outgained in seven of their last eight games and again, this one (for me) boils down to the fact I never want to lay points w/ a bad team on the road (see 49ers yday). The Jets beat the Colts soundly LY, on a Monday night, 20-7 as six-point road underdogs. Take the points here.

The Jets probably should have beaten the Patriots last week as they led w/ just under 2:00 to go and never trailed by more than the spread. Though now 3-8 SU, I believe the Jets to be slightly better than their record. A -15 turnover margin has certainly done them no favors and while most of that is on QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, he looked a lot better in his return to the starting lineup last week than he had previously. A big key for Fitz and the Jets offense here is that center Nick Mangold is set to return. Note that the Jets have been close each of the L3 weeks, losing by five or less every time and outgaining two of those opponents. 

The Jets' offense should have some success here against an awful Indy defense, which is giving up the second most yards per play in the league right now (6.2). Fitzpatrick should have some success in this game as the Colts' pass rush often fails to get home. Indy has allowed 22 TD passes so far and while picking off opposing passers only three times. Every single opponent this year has scored 20+ on this Colts defense. Meanwhile, the strength of this Jets team (defense), should do well against an awful Colts' O-line, which allows Luck to be sacked about 3.5x per game. In the L3 games, the Jets are allowing an average of just 310.3 YPG. I feel that, at home, New York should be able to win this game. 10* NY Jets

10* Under Celtics/Rockets (8:05 ET): Both of these teams are pretty bad defensively, but I believe the number is too high here. Houston has gone Over in six straight games, but the Under is 14-3 their L17 times hosting Boston and 3-0 the past four meetings overall (one push). Furthermore, the Celtics have been an Under team for much of this season, at one point going that way in nine consecutive games. The Over is 4-1 their L5 games, but those lines were much lower than this one. Take the Under. 

Houston is returning home from a very successful road trip that saw them go 4-1 SU/ATS including a win over Golden State. Throughout the trip, they faced some of the highest scoring teams in the league, such as Sacramento, Portland, Golden State and Denver. Those teams are also known for giving up their fair share as well. Sacramento, Denver and Portland all rank in the bottom eight in the league in defensive efficiency. Boston is only 18th, but they've shown much improvement after a bad start to the year. They did just give up 106 pts to the Sixers, but that was owed to uncharacteristically good Philly three-point shooting (15 of 33). The Under is 6-2 this year for the Celtics if they gave up 105+ pts the previous game and its 7-2 when the total is 210 pts or higher.

Houston will of course jack plenty of three-pointers here as they've made at least 10 in 19 consecutive games, a NBA record. But something that is interesting here is that both teams rank outside the top 10 in pace of play, meaning the number of possessions could affect this game somewhat significantly. Don't be surprised if the Rockets come out a tad bit lethargic after a somewhat grueling road trip. They had, at one point, gone Under in six straight games last month. Many of the totals during that streak were similar to this one. 10* Under Celtics/Rockets

9* Under Panthers/Bruins (7:05 ET): Florida's road trip continues w/ a stop in Beantown Monday night where they'll face a Bruins team coming off B2B 2-1 victories. I played against the Panthers Saturday as they were shutout in Ottawa, their third loss in what has been a four-game trip thus far. They've now scored only five goals in the four games and going back a bit further they've gone six consecutive games w/o scoring more than twice. Meanwhile, as I just mentioned, Boston is off consecutive low-scoring wins, but they've only been able to score more than twice one time in their last six games. So it figures to be low-scoring affair Monday night and I'm on the Under.

Not surprisingly, the Bruins will have Tuukka Rask between the pipes here. Rask owns a .941 save percentage, currently third best in the league behind Minnesota's Devan Dubnyk and Montreal's Carey Price, and is #1 in goals against at 1.60. The team is 13-5 w/ Rask in goal and just 1-6 w/o him. So, he's a real difference maker as he showed back on November 1st when a 33-save effort resulted in a 2-1 win over these Panthers. He topped that last time out w/ season high 35 saves against Buffalo, 17 of them coming in the third period, Throughout his career, Rask has dominated Florida as his record is 16-3-2 thanks to a 1.48 GAA and .951 save percentage. He's held them to just one goal in three of the past five meetings.

Fortunately for Florida, they have a top notch goaltender of their own to lean on. That would be Roberto Luongo, who has a .929 save percentage himself this season, including .955 the L4 games. Uncharacteristically, he let in two on only 19 shots from Ottawa Saturday night, but I'm not overly concerned about that even though the Bruins come in averaging 36.2 shots over their L5 games. What I do like about the Panthers, and I noted this even playing against them Sat night is they have a strong penalty kill (85.5%). Sure enough, they killed off all seven Senators power plays on Saturday. Not to be outdone, however, Boston ranks third on the PK (85.9%) and was 7 for 7 the last time they met Florida. Neither PP is anything special as the Bruins rank 23rd and the Panthers 27th w/ the man advantage. By the way, the Bruins are 9-0 Under this year when facing a team w/ a losing record. 9* Under Panthers/Bruins

10* Rider (7:00 ET): Rider didn't play its first home game until Thursday and they promptly lost it 76-67 as 3.5-point favorites to Fairfield. Tonight, they host a Siena team that beat Fairfield, 80-73 as 7.5-pt home favorites, just two days later. Thus, most will naturally favor the Saints in this MAAC battle, but not I as Rider has some revenge to exact here, plus Siena may be a little road-weary from playing its sixth "true" road game since November 15th. They're 0-5 SU so far, so I see no reason why they should be the favorite here, especially considering they've given up an average of 83.4 PPG in those five losses. Take the points.

Rider had no answer for Fairfield's Tyler Nelson, who went for 38 points last Thursday. Needless to say, it was a career night for Nelson as he made six three-pointers, all 10 free throws and was 11 of 20 from the field. While the Broncs did trail the entire second half, they had managed to close the gap to five before free throws put the game away. Meanwhile, Siena was able to beat the Stags in their MAAC opener as one of their players (Nico Clareth) had a career night w/ 33 points. Nelson scored only 23 for Fairfield this time. Note that the Saints actually gave away a 16-pt lead in the second half, allowing the Stags to score 16 straight points. Something to note here is Siena was only 9 of 19 from the free throw line and those kind of numbers can cost a team moving forward.

Siena won both matchups LY and has beaten Rider three straight times overall. The Broncs were embarrassed last year here in Lawrenceville, losing by 20, and given that they just dropped the home opener, I expect a real emphasis placed on the result here. I was impressed that Rider was able to win three of five on the road to start the year and they should be the fresher team here, not just because they've had two additional days to prepare, but also due to the fact they've played two fewer games overall. The Broncs are also a strong 14-3 ATS as home underdogs of 3.5 to 6 points.  10* Rider

10* Seattle (8:25 ET): The Seahawks are off a rather embarrassing loss LW, 14-5 at Tampa Bay, which put a severe damper on their hopes of chasing down Dallas for homefield advantage in the NFC. But that's nothing compared to the heartbreak the Panthers have suffered throughout 2016. All that went right for Carolina last year, has gone wrong this year as last week's 35-32 loss at Oakland marked their fifth loss by a field goal or less this year. That's a stark contrast to LY when they were 8-1 SU in one-score games. Regression was inevitable for 2015's NFC Champs, but who knew it would be so severe? As much as I want to state Carolina is better than its record, a primetime affair in Seattle seems like the least likely place to turn things around. Especially w/ the Seahawks coming off a loss. Lay the points.

Under HC Pete Carroll, the 'Hawks are 16-5 ATS in regular season primetime games. Much has been written about the so-called 'Circadian Advantage' that Pacific Time Zone teams enjoy in night games, so I'll leave that to you to research. This will be Seattle's fourth primetime game in the L7 weeks and they are 2-0-1 ATS the previous three, including road games vs. Arizona and New England. Also, be aware that over the past four seasons, the Seahawks are 8-3-1 ATS when laying a TD or less at home. This was a team that had been rolling prior to last week's dud performance in Tampa Bay. They'd won in New England (Sunday Night Game) and pretty much dominated a good Philadelphia team the previous two weeks. They're still 5-0 SU at home and are #1 in scoring defense.

Carolina having a breakout game offensively last week might seem encouraging. But that's until you realize it came against a shaky Raiders defense, which is 30th against the run (yards per carry). That explains the Panthers going over 100 yds rushing for the first time in four weeks. Two of the previous three saw them held under 60 yds rushing. The Seattle defense should be at full strength here w/ both Earl Thomas and Michael Bennett returning. Meanwhile, Carolina has major losses on both sides of the ball w/ top defensive player Luke Kuechly out (concussion) and the offensive line down to a third-string center signed off the street. You saw the impact of Kuechly's absence w/ the defense giving up 35 pts LW vs. Oakland. On the road this year, Carolina is now giving up 31.0 PPG. This is a revenge game for the Seahawks as well (LY's Divisional Playoff), so don't be surprised to see them kick a dog when it's down, so to speak.  10* Seattle

8* Over Magic/Pistons (6:05 ET): Detroit has gotten on quite the roll and turned in perhaps their finest effort to date on Friday, beating Atlanta by 36. That makes it five wins and covers in the L6 games overall and the last three have all come on the road as underdogs. Thus it certainly seems to be a favorable setup Sunday evening as they return home (where they are 7-2 SU/ATS for the year) to face an opponent they have pretty well dominated the last few seasons (7-1 SU/ATS vs. Orlando since 2014-15). But that being said, I'm shying away from the side here (even though my numbers indicate the Pistons may be undervalued) and instead turn my attention to the total. Take the Over here, as I believe the O/U line to be too low.

The Magic have primarily been an Under team this year. That's the way the total has gone in each of their last three games, not to mention 8 of the last 10. A big reason for this is they average only 93.0 PPG and rank 30th (i.e. last) in offensive efficiency. While I do worry about the fact that Detroit is allowing only 89.0 PPG at home this year, I still believe this total is just too low. It is among the lowest for either side this year. It was a 108-82 Pistons' victory in the second game of the season, so the total here opened a few points lower. Note that in the first meeting, the Magic shot just 34.7% from the floor. I expect improvement there, plus I also expect the teams to combine for more than 18 total free throws, which is how few we saw back on October 28th. 

The Magic did just top 100 pts for only the fifth time this season on Friday, but for a second time it was against Philadelphia. Still, they'll be facing a Pistons team that has gone Over in three straight and five of its last six overall. It's been back to back 121-point efforts against the Celtics and Hawks and they come in averaging a healthy 102.0 PPG here at home. While the Under has been profitable for both them at home and the Magic on the road, I feel this is a "tipping point" of sorts w/ the number simply being too low. Finally, there is a chance that PG Reggie Jackson might make his season debut here for Detroit. 8* Over Magic/Pistons

10* San Diego (4:25 ET): I believe this line should be closer to a touchdown, rather than a field goal. Yes, the Chargers are only 5-6 straight up for the year. But they were my top play last week and looked good coming off the bye w/ a 21-13 win at Houston. Now, they return home to face a Tampa Bay team that will be in prime letdown mode off a shocking win LW at home over Seattle. Two weeks ago, the Bucs beat the Chiefs, but I'm still not really a believer as they've still been outscored by 15 pts over the course of the season. So what I'm saying is that they shouldn't start printing playoff tickets just yet in Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, I'm not ready to write off the Chargers just yet, despite them being in a very tough division. Lay the points.

I said it in last week's analysis and I'll come back w/ it again: the Chargers are better than their record. They've led in every game this year. That includes the second half advantages in five of the six losses. Twice, they've blown double digit fourth quarter leads and had that not happened, they'd be right in the thick of the competitive AFC West. QB Philip Rivers has been bit by the turnover bug at some most inopportune times (Miami game, in particular), but overall is still having a real strong year despite missing several key receivers. Rivers has thrown for 23 TD passes so far and the SD offense is 4th in scoring and 5th in passing. The Tampa Bay defense has been playing WAY over its head the L3 games, forcing a ton of turnovers, but I feel is due to start regressing, especially on third downs. The Bucs still rank only 26th in yards per play allowed.

The Bucs shocked Seattle LW by scoring TD's on their first two drives. But from there, they didn't do much the rest of the game. Those two scoring drives constituted 140 total yards. For the rest of the game, they gained less than 200. Granted they were facing the Texans, but the Chargers' defense happens to be off its best performance of the year, allowing 13 pts and forcing four turnovers. Again, I'm not ready to write off Rivers, who is 35-21 ATS in his career in December/January. So often we see a team that plays Seattle struggle the following week due to the physical nature of the game. Such should be the case here. 10* San Diego

8* Arizona (4:25 ET): Both of these teams have ties on their resume. But, generally speaking, those ties are the only recent result they have in common. Washington did lose on Thanksgiving, but they did something that few have been able to accomplish this season and that's cover at the Cowboys' expense. After starting the year 0-2 SU/ATS, the Skins have covered eight of their last nine games. They're 6-4-1 SU, meaning they're in the thick of the playoff race in the NFC. Meanwhile, Arizona was projected to be one of the top teams in the conference coming into the year, but instead has been one of the bigger underachievers. They're just 4-6-1 SU after being blown out at Atlanta last week. But I still have them rated slightly better than the Redskins, meaning any line under -3 is a bargain to me. Despite these teams seemingly going in opposite directions of late, the value is on the Cards. Lay the points.

I'll tip my cap to Redskins' QB Kirk Cousins, who is proving himself to be a viable starter in this league. In retrospect, the old Cousins vs. RG3 debate seems ludicrous. Cousins and the Washington offense racked up plenty of yards last week against Dallas (505). But they'll be running into a far better defense here. In fact, Arizona is #1 in the league in yards allowed per game (293.9) and per play (4.9). They are #2 agianst the pass, allowing less than 200 YPG. Even though Atlanta blew them out LW, they were held to their fewest yard per play total of the season. Two of Cousins' top receiving threats - DeSean Jackson and Jordan Reed - are both dealing w/ shoulder injuries, which could limit them. 

On the other side of the ball, I feel the Arizona offense, RB David Johnson specifically, match up well w/ a Washington defense that is a horrid 31st in yards per carry allowed. Only the 49ers are worse. Johnson leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage and I'll call for a big day from him here. The Cardinals have NEVER lost three in a row under Bruce Arians. I can't help but think what this line would have been just a few scant weeks ago. To me, the Cardinals' season is on the line here and they should deliver in kind. I remain unsold on the Redskins. 8* Arizona

10* Buffalo (4:05 ET): Perhaps I'm in the minority here, but I believe the better team is getting points. Yes, the Raiders are 9-2 SU and winners of five straight. But, their YTD point differential is only +32 (less than 3 PPG), which is the second worst mark ever posted by a 9-2 SU squad since the 1970 merger! They have been winning close - a lot - as the last two weeks have featured narrow escapes over Houston and Carolina, teams ranked outside my top 20. Buffalo has a top five scoring differential in the league and is 2-0 SU/ATS since the bye, beating Jacksonville and Cincinnati. While 6-0 ATS on the road (including Mexico City game), the Raiders are just 1-4 ATS at home, which is where both SU losses have occurred. Take the points.

Overall, Oakland has seven wins by seven points or less to its credit. I will always harp on this. While some will want to claim a team has some unprovable "clutch" ability in these situations, the reality is that a record like the Raiders have in games decided by 7 pts or less (7-1 SU) is a byproduct of good luck. The last two weeks have seen them outgained by both the Texans and Panthers. In each game, they entered the fourth quarter trailing. QB Derek Carr had a nasty dislocation of his finger LW and while he's been given "full clearance," moving forward, I can't help but think it could be an issue. Something else to consider is that this will be just the fifth time that the Raiders have been favored by a FG or more this season. They're just 2-2 SU previously, including an outright loss here at home to Atlanta in Wk 2.

While Oakland's offense is deserving of accolades, the defense (sans Khalil Mack) has issues. The latter unit is giving up more than 28 PPG at home this year. Buffalo's defense is finally playing to what you'd expect from being under the tutiledge of Rex Ryan, having allowed just 12 and 21 pts in the L2 wks. They are 11th in the league, giving up just 5.4 yards per play. The Bills offense may be dead last in the league in passing, but they're #1 in rushing (157.4 YPG). While TE Charles Clay may be out, they should be getting back WR Sammy Watkins, which is a big deal. The Oakland defense is just 26th against the run. Eventually, the Raiders' luck has to start running out. 10* Buffalo

10* Coll of Charleston (4:00 ET): Davidson rolls into Charleston pretty hot as the Wildcats have won (and covered) four straight following a 78-57 beatdown of Mercer on Tuesday, their first "true" road tilt of the season. The lone loss on the resume of Bob McKillop's team was to Clemson, back in the second game of the season where they allowed 95 points. Meanwhile, Charleston has responded well after losing three straight, posting B2B wins over USC Upstate and Navy. Two of those three losses did take place at home (other at Villanova), but the Cougars are getting a few too many points, in my opinion, to pass up on here. It looks as if the line is climbing as well, so you may even want to wait a little bit before playing! Take the points.

This is a double revenge spot for the home team as they've lost each of the last two seasons to Davidson, including by one on the road in 2015. They were 15-point road dogs LY. This was an old conference rivalry before Davidson ditched the SoCon for greener pastures. Last year's game featured a total of 19 lead changes and 11 ties and was a brutal defeat for the Cougars, who led 81-76 late (under 4 minutes to play), but allowed the Wildcats to score the game's final six points. So, what I'm saying is that motivation will not be lacking from the home side here.

While I am a bit worried about Charleston and its shooting percentage going up against a Davidson team that's allowed it's six opponents to shoot only 37% from the field, the Cougars will not be intimidated here considering they've already faced the likes of Wake Forest and, both of whom are bigger and more athletic than Davidson. I think that Charleston is deserving of more respect than Mercer was and given the virtually identical lines, that doesn't seem to be the case. Granted, an adjustment had to be made after Davidson blew Mercer out, but I think the oddsmakers and now public are overreacting. 10* Coll of Charleston

10* Under Canadiens/Kings (3:00 ET): It's an early start time in Los Angeles Sunday afternoon, but one worth waking for as one of the best teams in the league comes to Tinseltown. We had all expected Montreal to improve this year, as long as goalie Carey Price stayed healthy, but the improvement shown thus far has been more than even the wildest optimist could have envisioned. The Habs are in 1st place in the Atlantic w/ 34 pts and I have them rated as the third best teams in the league currently. Of course, the home team should also be commended here for being able to stay afloat, despite being w/o its top netminder (Jonathan Quick) ever since the first game. Given Price's exploits and the Kings' style of play, I like the Under here. 

Price checks in w/ a .946 save percentage overall (#1 in the league) and only seems to be getting sharper as the season progresses. In the last four games, his save percentage has risen to .955. That's allowing six goals on 133 shot attempts. Each of those last four games have been 2-1 finals, two resulting in Habs' victories, the other two resulting in losses. Montreal's fast start has largely been built up at home where they are 12-1-1 this year. But Price's save percentage on the road (.943) has been right in line w/ what we've seen from him at the Molson Centre, so the lack of success then can be pinned on an offense that's averaging just 2.2 goals per game on opponents' rinks. For the year, the Under is 13-7-4 in all Habs' games.

Even w/o Quick, LA has a style of play that lends itself to an Under play. They are giving up only 25.7 shots per game, fewest in the league, while possessing the puck at a very high rate, which is something we see from them, year after year. This style makes life a bit easier on goalie Peter Budaj, who admittedly struggled the first time facing Montreal this year as he allowed in three goals on just 22 shots. An empty netter resulted in a push on the total there, despite only 47 total shots for the game. But w/ the league's top goaltender going up against the team allowing the fewest # of shots per game, the recipe for an Under is here. The Kings' offensive surge that has coincided w/ them winning six of seven is about to slow down. 10* Under Canadiens/Kings

10* Over Suns/Warriors (10:35 ET): Oddsmakers can't make this total high enough in my opinion as we have the most efficient offense in the game (Golden State) going up against a team giving up 111.9 PPG already. Furthermore, Phoenix is playing at the fastest pace in the league. These Pacific Division rivals already met once this year (on 11.13) and it was the Warriors coming out ahead 133-120. Even if this ends up as the highest total of the NBA season to date, I don't believe it will be high enough. Take the Over.

The Warriors saw their 12-game win streak come to an end Thursday w/ a 132-127 double overtime loss to Houston. It was 113-113 at the end of regulation, so it was admittedly a bad beat for Under bettors there (O/U Line was 232.5). But there should be no issues scoring here against a Suns team that gives up a ton of points (23rd in efficiency) due to the fast pace they play at. Speaking of pace, the Warriors are third in that department, so there should be plenty of possessions here. Golden State scores 120 PPG at home, by the way.

The Warriors also give up 109.6 PPG here at home, so Phoenix should score their fair share as well. The Suns come in averaging 107.9 PPG on the road. Over these last 13 games, Golden State has scored 115 points all but three times. They'll probably need closer to 125 here, but that should be no problem against this opponent. They made 16 threes and shot 51% overall in the first meeting with the Suns this year. Phoenix also shot 51% from the floor in that game. Again, after 253 total pts were scored in that game, the oddsmakers needed to adjust more. 10* Over Suns/Warriors

10* Maryland (9:00 ET): The Terps were embarrassed earlier this week, losing 73-59 to Pitt here in College Park. I went against them in what was their first loss of the season. They have yet to cover a spread here at home (0-3 ATS), but tonight they're not getting any respect against fellow 1-loss team Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are playing their first "true" road game of the year and considering they lost to Maryland by nine last year in Stillwater (as 9-pt favorites), I do not see them getting the job done here.

It was an awful first half vs. Pitt on Tuesday. I was quite happy to look at the scores and see Maryland down 45-24 at the break as the likelihood they'd come back from that kind of deficit, let alone cover as a favorite, was quite minimal. But I did like how the Terps fought back to cut that deficit to eight. They held Pitt to 26 percent shooting in the second half after allowing them to convert at a 61% clip in the first half. I think that considering this was an unbeaten team entering the week, this is a pretty extraordinary price on Maryland here at home. I realize that I was quite dismissive of the Terps' unbeaten start in my analysis of the Pitt game, but this is a great value. I have the Pokes and Pitt rated fairly evenly, so the market has overadjusted here. 

OSU has given up at least 85 points in four of their seven games. That includes games vs. Central Arkansas and Rogers State. Many will point to the fact the Cowboys destroyed a Georgetown team (by 27) that Maryland only beat by a single point. But, I'm not sure that matters. Besides, it was a "true" road win for the Terps over the Hoyas. OSU isn't going to be able to simply outscore Maryland, like they did to some of the lesser teams on the schedule, and they are just 8-21 ATS as road underdogs of three points or less or a pick em. Consider that each of the Cowboys last three opponents have shot 51% or better and even Rogers State was at 56.9%, unfathomable given the talent discrepancy. Maryland will bounce back big-time offensively here. 10* Maryland

10* Penn State (8:00 ET): This year's Big 10 Championship Game almost has the feel of a "bronze medal game" as the national perception is that LW's Ohio State-Michigan tilt determined the conference's true "champion." But the reality is that a game is to be played in Indianapolis and Penn State and Wisconsin both believe they have a shot at the College Football Playoff. And if either Clemson or Washington were to fall in their conference title games, the winner here has an excellent shot at moving up. Penn State, if they were to win Saturday night, would have a very legitimate argument for inclusion in the top four as they beat Ohio State head to head. They are one of the hottest teams in the entire country right now w/ eight straight wins and seven straight covers, so in what projects as a fairly even game, I'll take the points.

The Nittany Lions have scored at least 39 points in five consecutive games. During this seven-game ATS win streak, they have won by two touchdowns six times and the other win was the upset of Ohio State. I give PSU a huge edge at the most important position, quarterback, with Trace McSorley. In the eight-game SU win streak, McSorely has a 16-2 TD-INT ratio. Meanwhile, Wisconsin may be w/o Alex Hornibrook (concussion), leaving Bart Houston as potentially the Badgers' only option under center. Houston threw for only 123 yds LW in a 31-17 win over Minnesota where the Badgers trailed entering the fourth quarter and were fortunate to force four turnovers. In the L5 games, the Wisconsin passing attack has averaged just 138.4 YPG and that's not going against the best Big 10 teams.

Wisconsin has in fact been very fortunate to force 12 turnovers total the L3 wks. On the other side of the ledger, Penn State has turned it over just three times total in the L5 games. Most feel the Badgers have the better defense in this one, but note that the Nittany Lions were missing their entire starting LB corps against Michigan. Since getting Jason Cabinda and Brandon Bell back, they've been a lot stronger. The L3 wks have seen the Nittany Lions allow an average of just 294.7 YPG. These teams have actually not met since 2013 when PSU shocked Wisconsin as 24-point underdogs - in Madison. Don't discount the Nittany Lions' rather sizable edge on special teams either. Underdogs are 5-0 ATS all-time in Big 10 Championship Games including three outright upsets. 10* Penn State

8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Over the L2 seasons, the Hawks and Raptors have each played the role of "bridesmaid" to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference. Last year was the Raptors' turn as they fell in six games to the eventual World Champs. That's better than Atlanta did in the 2015 Eastern Conf Finals (they were swept). This year has seen both teams emerge as potential contenders for the #2 spot, which Toronto currently holds thanks to a five-game win streak. Right now, it appears as if these teams are trending in very opposite directions as Atlanta has lost five in a row and eight of nine. The Raptors have not only won five straight, but covered six in a row. But these very different streaks have created a situation where there's now a ton of value on the Hawks. Take the points.

Atlanta was destroyed last night, at home, by Detroit. The final score was 121-85 and that was a game the Hawks were 1.5-pt favorites. So, what happened? Well, the Pistons were red-hot from the floor, making 17 three-pointers, and the Hawks were not. Part of that was being w/o leading scorer Paul Milsap again, but the rest of the team was just 36.4% from the floor, including 25% from three-point range. Dwight Howard attempted only four shots and had just two points. He was called for five fouls, which didn't help. After missing 10 straight shots in the second quarter, the Hawks fell behind by 19 points. Needless to say, tonight can't possibly go as poorly.

The Raptors are 6-2 SU/ATS the L2 years vs. the Hawks, going 3-1 each season. While Atlanta was blown out last night, Toronto destroyed the Lakers by 33. It was their third straight double digit win, but those came against the Sixers, Grizzlies and Lakers. The Raptors can't possibly continue this hot shooting as they've been 54% or higher from the floor in each of the L3 games. The Lakers shot just 34% last night. The back to back scenario has yet to bother the Hawks this season as they've gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in it, winning outright four times. They are also 6-1 ATS this year vs. teams w/ a winning record. They are still #2 in the league in defensive efficiency and I refuse to believe they are as bad as they've looked of late. 8* Atlanta

10* Ottawa (7:05 ET): This is the third consecutive home game for the Senators and thus far they are w/o a win. It's been B2B one-goal losses, first to Buffalo (5-4) and then to Philadelphia (3-2). Yet they remain in second place in a very competitive Atlantic Division, four points ahead of tonight's opponent, Florida. Looking at this line, I see a ton of value on Ottawa at 'plus money' on home ice. While two weeks ago, they did drop a game here to the Panthers, 4-1, they did so in spite of a rather massive 40-23 edge in shots. Thus, I'm calling for the Sens to gain a measure of revenge here. This is Florida's fourth consecutive road game.

Coaching changes are fairly commonplace in this league and the Panthers have already made one, firing Gerard Gallant and replacing him w/ Tom Rowe. Since beating Ottawa on 11.19, Florida has gained seven points in six games, five of which have been decided by one goal. On the road, the team has dropped 8 of 13 and is giving up an average of 30.6 shots per game. To me, the two teams here are rated fairly even, thus there's no real justification for the Panthers being favored on the road. Goaltender Roberto Luongo has been hot of late, but I do not see him maintaining that level of play.

Ottawa will likely have to go w/ Mike Condon again as Craig Anderson is still tending to his wife, who is undergoing cancer treatment. With Condon between the pipes, it appeared as if the Sens were going to win Thursday vs. the Flyers, but they blew a 2-0 lead and lost in overtime. Over the L5 games, the Sens haven't been putting many shots on goal (25.2). But for the year, they average 30.0 per game. I already mentioned the 40 they put on goal the first time they faced Florida. Again, given then relatively similar numbers we've seen from these two sides this year, I feel this matchup is mispriced. 10* Ottawa

8* Baylor (3:30 ET): I fully understand that it's a bit of toxic situation in Waco w/ an underacheiving team playing for a lame duck head coach. Following a 6-0 SU start, the Bears have lost five in a row coming into the regular season finale, which will be a challenge here in Morgantown. But w/ nothing to play for here themselves; WVU probably isn't looking to win by any kind of margin here. This number, which has been bet up throughout the course of the week, was already inflated to begin with. To me, the spread should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 pts, not 17. So we're getting some good value w/ a team that was 6-0 at one point and has actually been the betting favorite in four of their five losses. They put up over 600 total yds LW vs. Texas Tech, but were undone by a -4 turnover margin. Take the points.

Baylor has had an extra day to prepare here, which is a bit of advantage. While they put up 634 total yards of offense last Friday, the Bears defense also gave up 600+ (646). While you might expect to find that the Bears have a poor pass defense, that's not really the case as they rank #2 in Big 12, allowing just 234.2 YPG. I do not expect WVU QB Skylar Howard to have the same kind of success he did LW vs. Iowa State where he somehow completed 12 passes for 330 yards, an average of 27.2 yards per completion w/ 5 TDs!  On offense, Baylor still averages 36.2 PPG and even w/ a backup QB (Zach Smith), I expect them to put plenty of points on the board. Remember that this is a "plug and play" offense and virtually every QB in the system has thrived. This is almost unprecedented territory for the Bears as an underdog. They were 19.5-pt dogs at Oklahoma, but the previous two seasons had found them getting points just twice total and both lines were five-points or less. 

Though the final score read 49-19 last week for the Mountaineers, total yardage w/ Iowa State was fairly even. It was 613-561, but the key was being +4 in turnover margin, the opposite of Baylor's game last week. Given the # of total yards LW, you may not think this matters, but WVU is w/o its top three running backs and was forced to take the redshirt off Martell Pettaway. Though better Baylor teams have lost the L2 visits to Morgantown, I can't help but remember Baylor won LY's meeting in Waco 62-38 as 20-pt favorites. The market has moved far too much against Jim Grobe's team. 8* Baylor

9* Over Hurricanes/Rangers (1:05 ET): I've had the Rangers rated as the best team in the league for most of the year and I have to admit that, off a loss, they are pretty attractive in ths price range. However, it should be pointed out that they've only managed to alternate wins and losses over the L6 games and are just 3-5 SU L8 games overall. Thus, there's some trepidation there. Here, they are playing a Carolina team they just beat 3-2 on Tuesday. They also scored three times in the loss to Buffalo. So, I think we can count on them to score Saturday. Especially considering they are facing a team that ranks in the bottom third in save percentage. Can the 'Canes score, however? I think they will put enough goals on the board to help this one go Over the total. 

I played against Carolina in their last game, which was a tough 2-1 loss (for them) at Boston (in a shootout). They gave up the game-tying goal w/ 32 seconds left in regulation and were outshot 35-30. Cam Ward turned in a strong effort, but it was not enough. Admittedly, it is Eddie Lack, not Ward that's dragging down the team's overall save percentage. Ward is the likely starter again Saturday afternoon, but note he allowed three goals on just 21 shots vs. the Rangers earlier in the week. The Rangers are the top team in the league in goals per game (3.64), so assuming they increase their shot total from Tuesday, we should have no issue w/ them scoring. 

Uncharacteristically, Rangers' goaltender Henrik Lundqvist has been struggling. His currently .917 save percentage would be his lowest in any season since 2007-08. Overall, he's just 17th in the league in save percentage. With the combination of the Rangers leading the league in scoring and Lundqvist's regression, the Over is 14-7 in all New York games this season. That includes 3-0 at home if the total is 5.0. I like the number and this is a relatively high juice total, which more often than not is worth laying. 9* Over Hurricanes/Rangers

8* Georgia Tech (1:00 ET): The Yellow Jackets are off just their second loss of the year. The final score at Penn State Tuesday was remarkably similar to their first loss, which took place back on 11.18 at home vs. Ohio U. They fell 67-60 in Happy Valley, as six point underdogs. (They were 3.5-pt home dogs in the 67-61 loss to Ohio). I'm hoping that the "third time will be the charm" for GT getting points as that's the scenario Saturday afternoon in Knoxville against Tennessee. The Vols have not played since Maui, a tournament which ended before Thanksgiving. They've played just five games overall and their lone win on the Island was against the host, D-II Chaminade. Their only other win this year was a wild 103-94 affair vs. Appalachian State. I believe the better team is getting points here.

Georgia Tech shot just 36.4% against Penn State, yet was able to stay in the game virtually throughout. It was a two-point game w/ just two minutes to go. Three-point shooting (7 of 16) was able to keep them in the game. Getting to the free throw line only seven times didn't help. Not coincidentally, the Yellow Jackets' worst two shooting games of the year are also their two losses. With Tennessee giving up an average of 80 PPG thus far, I feel the Jackets should be able to put plenty of points on the board today.

The three-point line could be huge here. I already mentioned that Georgia Tech was pretty sharp from distance last time out. Well, they also defended the arc well (Penn State missed 11 of 15 attempts). Meanwhile, Tennessee is not shooting the ball well from long range. They are at just 29% for the year, including 25.7% for the year. Therefore, it's odd that they've been able to still score so many as this is a relatively small team. Overall, the Vols are just 8-23 ATS as a favorite the L3 seasons and 10-22 ATS in home games. They lost to Georgia Tech LY in Atlanta, by two, as seven-point underdogs. The line has shifted significantly in one year's time, too much I believe. Take the points. 8* Georgia Tech

10* Georgia Southern (12:00 ET): Classic contrarian play here. Troy is absolutely overvalued here as they still have a chance to clinch a share of the Sun Belt title w/ a win. Appalachian State (idle this week) is already guaranteed no worse than a share at 7-1 SU in league play and there's a strong likelihood that Arkansas State will finish w/ the same record as they finish the regular season against the worst team in the country, Texas State. Troy had not lost a SBC game until being blown out by Arkansas State, 35-3, at home two weeks ago. They bounced back w/ a predictable 40-7 drubbing of Texas State last Saturday. Meanwhile, Georgia Southern had last weekend off. While the Eagles won't be going bowling this year, this is an excellent shot to play "spoiler" and the Seniors will definitely want to go out as winners (especially w/ this game being on ESPN2). Take the points.

1st year GSU HC Tyson Summers inherited a team that had gone 14-2 SU vs. the rest of the Sun Belt the last two years. They opened 2-0 in conference this year, 3-0 overall. But things have since gone "in reverse" in Statesboro as the team is 4-7 SU mark (3-4 conference). The Eagles played a challenging non-conference slate that included Ole Miss, Georgia Tech and Western Michigan. While Troy played Clemson tough early in the year, I'll argue that Georgia Southern is much better than its record. The Eagles have been outscored by only 2.6 PPG in Sun Belt action and just 0.2 PPG overall! Their last two games have both been losses by seven pts or less where they were favored. 

The market has clearly whiffed on Georgia Southern, who is 2-9 ATS including three outright losses as a favorite. In fact, they've gone just 1-6 ATS when asked to lay points. The only four teams that they were an underdog to are: Ole Miss, Georgia Tech, Western Michigan and Appalachian State. Of those, App State was the lone home game. The Eagles were picked to finish ahead of the Trojans prior to the start of the year, so this line has to be viewed as a bargain, especially considering GSU was a six-point favorite AT Troy LY and won 45-10! In two meetings as SBC rivals, the Eagles have outscored the Trojans 87-20! 10* Georgia Southern

10* Western Kentucky (12:00 ET): With a 60-6 thrashing of Marshall last week (on the road!), WKU guaranteed itself a second consecutive appearance in the C-USA Title Game. Even better, because Louisiana Tech lost last week (39-24 as 15.5-pt road favorites), the Hilltoppers will play host for a second straight year as they look to make it B2B titles (they beat Southern Miss 45-28 as 8-pt favorites in LY's C-USA Title Game). This is a revenge spot for WKU, as they lost down in Ruston earlier this year, 55-52 as 3-pt favorites, a game they trailed by as many as 25 at one point. A furious rally fell short back in early October, but I believe there will be no need for a comeback effort here as the home team is 3-0 SU all-time as C-USA rivals and I look for the Hilltoppers to roll. Home teams have won the L4 C-USA Title games and 8 of 11 all-time. Lay the points. 

The regular season meeting was a Thursday night game. Like I said earlier, playing on the road, WKU fell into an early hole. That's odd considering the Hilltoppers have outscored opponents by 202 pts in the first half this year, the third largest margin in the FBS. They allowed 35 1H points in Ruston and trailed 49-24 midway through the fourth quarter. Though by no means a defensive stalwart, the number of points allowed in the 1st Half vs. La Tech was more than they allowed in all but two other games. One was vs. Alabama! Besides 'Bama and La Tech, the Hilltoppers only other loss was by 1 pt at Vanderbilt. Obviously, it goes w/o saying that this is an outstanding offensive team, one that is tied for 5th in points per game nationally (w/ LA Tech!) at 44 PPG. They are third in TD drives of three plays or less (21), tied w/ Louisville.

Though they didn't show it in the regular season meeting, WKU really has a significant edge defensively here. They allow just 22.4 PPG overall and 16.7 PPG here in Bowling Green. Meanwhile, La Tech allows 30.6 PPG overall and 33.3 PPG on the road. It was a crushing loss LW in Hattiesburg for the Bulldogs as they were outgained 426-254 (-10 in first downs) by a 5-6 Southern Miss team. Since losing to LA Tech, WKU has won six in a row, the last five all by 28 pts or greater. They've won those L5 games by a combined score of 265-61! This spread should be closer to two touchdowns. 10* Western Kentucky

10* Minnesota (9:05 ET): Though 10 points back, I believe the Wild to be the most serious threat to the first place Blackhawks in the Central Division. Minnesota comes into tonight sporting the best goal differential in the Western Conference (+15). I love the fact that they rank #2 in goals allowed and are tied w/ Montreal for the best overall save percentage at .933. Simply put, the Wild should have more points to their name. Tonight looks like an easy opportunity to add two as they play a Calgary team that I have rated among the worst in the sport. Because the better team is on the road, we are able to get substantial value and I'm "all over it."

The Flames are coming off a 3-0 shutout over Toronto, but we can use that to our advantage as it's contributed to the undervaluing of the Wild in this situation. When I say Calgary doesn't do much right, it's not an overstatement. They come into tonight ranked 26th in goals per game and 22nd in goals allowed. Their special teams are really lousy as they are dead last (30th) on the power play and 27th in penalty killing. It was a bit flukish how they beat the Maple Leafs on Wednesday as they were outshot 39-29, but scored twice in the game's first minute. Over the L5 games, they've given up an average of 35.8 shots per game and while Minnesota is tied for the best overall save percentage in the league, Calgary is 25th.

The Wild have dropped B2B games, uncharacteristically giving up nine goals in the process. They lost 5-4 at Vancouver on Tuesday, which is embarrassing given the current state of the Canucks. But I can't see a team this talented dumping two in a row against the worst teams in the league.  They led the Canucks, but for a third time in six games, gave up their advantage and lost. The result was a 70-minute practice on Wednesday and to say this team is "ready to go" would be probably be an understatement. Devan Dubnyk still has a very impressive .946 save percentage and will start between the pipes here. (It was Darcy Keumper vs. Vancouver). Remember that Calgary is also w/o Johnny Gaudreau. 10* Minnesota

8* San Antonio (8:35 ET): Greg Popovich may be ornery, but if he were to state that his team is no better than third right now in the Western Conference, he would not be incorrect. But as much as the early returns on the Spurs' 2016-17 campaign have been a little disappointing (at least compared to those of the Warriors and Clippers), this remains one of the best teams in the league. Sure, they dumped a game to Orlando (here at home!) earlier in the week and then followed that up by barely beating a terrible Dallas team on the road. But the ornery Popovich, I believe, will have his team ready to go tonight against Washington, a team in far worse shape right now than San Antonio. Lay the points.

If you want to talk disappointments, how about the Wizards? Scott Brooks inherited what most believed was a pretty talented roster, led by John Wall and Bradley Beal, but the Wiz are going nowhere fast. Currently, they are 6-11 SU after "giving one away" at Oklahoma City Wednesday night. That was an overtime game and I see the loss being difficult to get over. They are now 1-5 ATS as an underdog and just 1-6 SU on the road. They've not fared well against teams w/ winning records either and their last three wins came against Sacramento, Orlando and Phoenix. A big problem is they are giving up 105.7 PPG and that number goes even higher on the road. This despite playing at a much slower place compared to last year.

Washington has not won in San Antonio since 1999 and I wouldn't look for that streak to come to a halt anytime soon. Keep in mind that these teams have already met once this year and the Spurs won comfortably in D.C., 112-100 as 5.5-pt favorites. Using that line as a baseline for tonight's pointspread, you would then figure San Antonio would be asked to lay double digits. I wouldn't be surprised if the number got there as I don't think bettors will put much stock into the fact this team has already lost four times at home. I also put little to no stock in that as te Spurs are simply the way better team here. 8* San Antonio

10* Minnesota (7:35 ET): Thus far, the T'wolves have been real money-burners at the betting window. Their 5-13 ATS record is a league worst and in the interest of full disclosure, if it weren't for them, my NBA record would be pretty fantastic. I admit to taking them Wednesday, in this first game of a home and home w/ the Knicks, which they promptly lost 106-104 as 3.5-point favorites. But as was the case Wednesday, I still believe Minnesota to be the better team on Friday. Sure, they aren't very good defensively, but the Knicks remain worse and are being outscored by 3.5 pts per 100 possessions. Early line movement seems to indicate the "sharps" are w/ me on this one as well. Take the points.

Wednesday's game wasn't decided until Carmelo Anthony sunk the GW jumper w/ 2.3 seconds remaining. That negated an incredible effort by Karl-Anthony Towns, who led all scorers w/ 47 points and added 18 rebounds. Also, the T'wolves (for once!) closed the game strong, using a 20-3 run to tie the game up prior to Anthony's game-winner. Note that this is Minnesota's third three-game losing streak of the year. But they are a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS off the previous two, beating Orlando by 16 (on the road) and Phoenix by 13 (also on the road). Wednesday was the team's fourth loss already by four points or less. I will continue to maintain that the T'wolves are better than the record shows and better than the Knicks.

New York continues to give up an average of 106.1 PPG, which is problematic when you're favored. In defensive efficiency, they are tied for 26th. I'm very surprised to see that the Knicks have covered seven of nine, but note that four of those SU wins have been by four points or less. So, what it boils down to here is the Knicks have been coming out on the right side of some close games while the opposite is true for the T'wolves. I look for that trend to reverse itself here as Minnesota is far too talented to continue losing like this. Courtney Lee is doubtful for the Knicks tonight while Joakim Noah is questionable. 10* Minnesota

8* Over Ohio/Western Michigan (7:00 ET): For the first time in six seasons, Northern Illinois will NOT represent the MAC West in the Conference's Championship Game. That distinction instead belongs to Western Michigan, who is unbeaten and a monster favorite to win tonight against Frank Solich's Ohio University Bobcats. A case can be made that the favored Broncos are among the strongest MAC teams ever fielded. They have outscored their conference bretheren by almost 27 points per game and just became the first MAC team to beat Toledo by at least three scores since 2010. Only one time this year has WMU NOT won a game by at last 14 pts. So the price range is justified here, though Ohio is 7-1 ATS its last eight times as a dog and will certainly be playing w/ "house money" at Ford Field. Therefore, I'm turning to the total instead.

Ohio has lost four games this season, three by a TD or less and the other by nine at Tennessee. So they don't get blown out very often. But the one loss I want to focus in on to start the discussion is what happened in the first game of the season. In Athens, the Bobcats lost 56-54 to Texas State, the worst team in the entire country, in triple overtime. It was a game they led by 10 in the fourth quarter and by three w/ less than a minute to go in regulation. The game obviously went Over the total. But since then, NO Ohio game has managed to go Over the total! They are the top Under team in the nation at 10-1-1. But the defense figures to be challenged here like no other game this season. Case in point, the Over has cashed each of the L4 times these teams have met w/ WMU topping 40 each of the last three.

Obviously, for this game to go Over, Western Michigan will have to do most of the "heavy lifting." Fortunately, they come in averaging a healthy 44.7 points per game. They've topped 40 in seven of the last nine games overall. Even in one of the two they did not (vs. Buffalo), they still scored 38 and put up over 600 yds total offense. Ohio's defensive numbers have been built up at the expense of some of the MAC's more anemic offenses. Against Toledo, they allowed 560 yards. With WMU poised for 40+, we likely only need two TD's from Ohio, which is certainly "doable." Remember that this game is also being contested indoors on the fast track at Ford Field. 8* Over Ohio/Western Michigan

10* Cal Poly (11:00 ET):  TX-San Antonio is not a good team at all; they currently rank outside of the top 300 in most projection systems. So the fact they are off a win, as five-point dogs no less, can be used against them here. Even if it means a half-hearted endorsement of a Cal Poly team I just went AGAINST not that long ago. Granted, the Mustangs sit outside the top 250 themselves and are off an unsuccessful stint in DeKalb for Northern Illinois' Thanksgiving Classic Tournament. But returning home, laying a relatively short number, should not be an issue against this weak opponent. While this is the first D-I opponent they've played in their gym, the Mustangs are 2-0 SU at home so far w/ both wins coming by double digits.

The game that I went against Cal Poly was last Friday vs. Illiniois-Chicago as they were actually four-point favorites at a neutral site and ended up losing 84-71. Note that came on the heels of upsetting the tournament host (as 10-pt underdogs), two days earlier. The Mustangs did not shoot the ball well against UIC (only 38.5%) and fell into a rather sizable halftime hole that they could not climb out of. In fact, they missed 23 of 31 field goal attempts in the first half. Things were better the following day against Elon, where the Mustangs in fact had a slight halftime advantage. But attempting 14 less free throws for the game proved to be a difference maker there and helped turn a game that was tied w/ a little over four minutes remaining into a six-point loss. Still though, Cal Poly actually covered the closing line (+6.5).

After allowing 52% shooting in the last two games, Cal Poly's defense should be a lot better here. I say that knowing full well that TX-San Antonio is shooting a woeful 37.4% from the field for the year, including 25.5% from three-point range. The Roadrunners have shot better than 40% in only one game all year (Prairie View A&M) and in their two wins were the beneficiaries of opponents shooting the ball even more dreadfully. One was the Prairie View A&M game (31.5%) and then last Friday, Texas State finished at just 30.0% on ALL field goal attempts (scored just 48 points). The Roadrunners are just 1-6 SU following a game where they allowed 60 or less points. 10* Cal Poly

8* LA Clippers (8:05 ET): Though Cleveland is off a loss here, just their second all year w/ LeBron James in the lineup, I'm going to trust my numbers, which suggest this should be a pick em game. Yes, the Clippers have now lost three in a row, including embarrassing setbacks to both Indiana and Brooklyn. But let us not totally disregard their strong start to the season, particularly on the defensive end where they were ranked #1 in efficiency for the first several weeks (currently #2 behind Atlanta). Meanwhile, the Cavs' defense has been somewhat suspect all year, currently ranking 15th in the league. This will be just the second time this year that LA is an underdog and I had them the first time, when they went to San Antonio and won outright. Take the points.

Since LeBron returned to Cleveland, the Cavaliers have swept all four meetings w/ the Clippers. They are also a perfect 4-0 ATS. But this appears to be a better Clippers team, particularly on the defensive end. Though it's still a "bad" loss, don't be fooled by the 127 pts they allowed to Brooklyn as that game went to double OT (was a brutal beat for me, as I had the Under). After HC Doc Rivers was tossed from that game, I expect him to have his team highly motivated to end this three-game losing streak. Also, Blake Griffin will be back in the lineup after missing Tuesday's game. That's a big boost. This is also one of the few offenses that may be able to keep pace w/ Cleveland. In addition to ranking #2 in efficiency on the defensive end, the Clips are #5 in offense.

The Cavs are #3 in offensive efficiency, but #15 on defense. Despite the great SU record, they have not been a "hit" at the betting window as their 6-9-1 ATS record ranks near the bottom of the league. That can be tied to the number of points per game they are currently allowing (103.7), which is problematic when you're favored in virtually every game. My numbers say this game should basically be a pick em, so I'll take the points here as Cleveland has struggled in B2B games. They are just 11-18 ATS since LeBron returned (two years ago) when off a double digit loss. 8* LA Clippers

10* Over Lightning/Blues (8:05 ET): Both of these teams have been giving up goals in bunches lately, so playing the Over in a head to head matchup only seems like a natural move. In their last three games, two of which were against Columbus, the Lightning have given up a total of 14 goals. That's even with the presence of Ben Bishop in goal for two of the games. As for St. Louis, they've conceded a total of 10 goals the L3 games. Their last four games have all finished Over the total. For the year, the teams rank 19th and 20th respectively in goals allowed per game. I like the number here.

A big reason for Tampa Bay's recent woes is that they are simply giving up too many shots. They're allowing an average of 33.4 over the last five games and have gone seven straight games allowing at least 30. This makes life difficult for either Bishop or Andrei Vasilevskiy. Bishop appears to be the more likely starter here and in three games vs. Western Conference opponents this season, his save percentage is a dreadful .848. Somehow, the Under went 3-0 in those three games, but with that kind of save percentage, that trend won't last for long. The Lightning do rank 7th in the league in goals per game and third on the power play, so following B2B one-goal efforts, we should start to see a scoring increase on their side as well.

The Blues are certainly not offensively challenged either as they've scored at least three times in eight consecutive contests. As a result, most of those (6) have been wins. But even w/ Jake Allen starting in goal, they continue to give up their fair share as well. Each of the L2 games have been been 4-3 finals (both in the Blues' favor) that went beyond regulation. Last time out, Allen allowed three goals on only 21 shots. In fact, only one of the Blues' last eight games have seen less than five total goals scored.  10* Over Lightning/Blues

8* Boston (7:05 ET): The Bruins have been fairly suspect at home thus far (just 5-5), but this is still a good price range for them to be in against a clearly inferior opponent. Sure, the B's just dropped a 3-2 decision in Philadelphia Tuesday night (shootout), their fourth loss in the last five games. But Carolina has dropped three of four overall and has won just three of its 13 road games to this point. Plus, like I said earlier, the 'Canes happen to be one of the weakest teams in the Eastern Conference. I'm a little surprised to see that the road team has enjoyed so much success in past head to head meetings between these two (3-0 last year), including Carolina's 27-17 record in Beantown. But, again, tonight will be a different story.

Boston may have lost four of its last five, but several key metrics indicate that they've outplayed their opponents during this time. One is that they've outshot those five foes by nearly eight per game. At home this season, the team is giving up just 26.4 shots per game. Sure, they are currently w/o two top defensemen - Zdeno Chara and John-Michael Liles. But they still have goaltender Tuukka Rask to lean on. Not only has Rask posted an overall save percentage of .938 this season (#5 in the league), but his career numbers vs. Carolina - 1.89 goals against average and .939 save percentage - are also quite good. I expect Rask to play well here and lead his team to the two points.

  Carolina's overall team save percentage is really low (24th), due to it being dragged down by Eddie Lack. It will more than likely be Cam Ward between the pipes tonight. But that's okay b/c Ward has a losing record vs. the Bruins in his career w/ a save percentage of just .918. The Hurricanes, like Boston, have done a good job at limiting shots recently and I will tip my cap to their top ranked penalty killing unit. But I have to go back to their road woes as they are 18-48 L66 away from home if the game total is 5.0. That includes 0 for 7 so far this year. Boston has the better YTD goal differential and enters this game knowing that they thoroughly outplayed Philadelphia Tuesday night (had 47-21 edge in shots). 8* Boston

10* Los Angeles (10:35 ET): Right off the bat, the Kings' 2016-17 fortunes took a sizable hit when superstar goaltender Jonathan Quick was injured in the very first game of the season. The groin injury will continue to keep him out for 3-4 more months, but thus far the team has been able to stay afloat due to its usual combo of limiting shots and possessing the puck. It also helps that Peter Budaj has filled in nicely between the pipes w/ a respectable .917 save percentage. The team comes into tonight having won five straight and is incredibly just two points back of rival San Jose in the Pacific. The fact that the Kings are still in contention has to be considered terrifying to the rest of the division and I'll take them tonight.

The Kings have already beaten the other two contenders in the Pacific during this win streak of theirs (Edmonton, Anaheim) and now have their sights set on the main rival and team in first place. Surprisingly, San Jose has won six of the last eight meetings here in Los Angeles. They also beat the Kings earlier this year, 2-1 in the opener, which is the game Quick got hurt. But the Kings have been a strong team on home ice so far, going 9-2 thanks in large part to allowing only 24.2 shots per game! They're outscoring visitors by almost a full goal per game here.

This is San Jose's first road game since ending a six-game trip earlier this month w/ three consecutive losses. Los Angeles, who hasn't played since Saturday, has won six in a row on home ice. That win Saturday was against another first place team, the Blackhawks, so LA has already proven it can beat the best. Meanwhile, while the Kings are rested, San Jose just played last night. Like the Kings' last win, it was a game that went to OT w/ the GW goal scored on the power play. I actually went against the Sharks last night, taking Arizona +1.5, so I was a winner. While the Sharks did dominate in terms of shots on goal (42-19!), I think it's going to be tough for goaltender Martin Jones to maintain his recent level of play if he's called on to start in B2B games. If it's not Jones, then it will be Aaron Dell and there's a significant drop off there. Kings stay red hot. 10* Los Angeles

8* Over Hawks/Suns (9:05 ET): The Hawks are in the midst of quite the slump right now as they've lost six of their last seven games overall. This was a team that had gotten off to a tremendous start, even ranking as high as #2 in efficiency. But their recent tailspin can largely all be tied to a decline on the offensive end of the floor, as they still rank #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. Thus, you may not be surprised to learn this team has gone Under in each of its last nine games. But tonight, they have an opponent that should allow for them to get back on track and score plenty of points in the process. That would be Phoenix, who is giving up over 112 PPG while playing at the fastest pace in the league. Take the Over here.

The Hawks actually didn't have a bad scoring night Monday in Golden State. What happened was Golden State shot much worse than you'd expect at 43.5% from the field for the game. Truth be told, the Hawks didn't shoot that well either at 41.9%. Scoring also curtailed in the fourth quarter w/ only 44 total pts scored. But again, the offensive woes should be rectified here against a Phoenix team that just gave up 120 pts in its last game. The Suns have actually given up that many in five of their last nine games overall!

As mentioned above, the Suns are currently playing at the fastest pace in the entire league. The Hawks aren't too far behind at seventh, so there should be plenty of possessions here, which obviously should lead to increased scoring. The Suns have gone Over in all five games this season when facing a team w/ a winning record. This is a pretty low total by their standards. Not only do they give up over 112 PPG, but they also score 106.1 PPG. It was poor all-around shooting in both matchups last season, which means the Under has now cashed four straight times when Atlanta and Phoenix have played. But I'll call for that streak to end tonight. 8* Over Hawks/Suns

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): One of these teams is overachieving, the other is underachieving. The former distinction belongs to a Knicks team that many in Vegas have foolishly wagered on as if they're a legitimate NBA Finals contender. They are not. Not only are they beating outscored by 3.7 pts per 100 possessions, they are tied for fourth worst in defensive efficiency. We've started to see them regress back to the mean w/ a pair of losses in recent days, first to Charlotte and then one to Oklahoma City. Here, they travel to Minnesota to face a T'wolves team w/ plenty of talent, despite the less than stellar early season results. This is the front end of a home and home and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Minnesota swept. Lay the points tonight. 

Much has been written on why the T'wolves are not living up to their potential thus far, but know this: despite a 5-12 SU record, they are only being outscored by roughly one point per 100 possessions. They are just outside the top 10 in offensive efficiency, so look for them to take advantage of the sorry Knicks defense tonight. Already, there have been about a half dozen instances where Minny has lost a game SU in which it held a double-digit lead. For whatever reason, their shooting tends to dip rather dramatically in the second half of games. In the first half, they rate as the most efficient offense in the game! That really makes no sense, so look for a young team to "learn how to close" better as we move forward. 

I'd definitely rather have Karl Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins than Carmelo Anthony and Derrick Rose. Monday night vs. Utah was yet another example though of the T'wolves letting one get away. After rallying to take the lead in the fourth quarter, they lost 112-103. But I still feel tonight's game can be the beginning of a turnaround. The Knicks allow a frightening 111.7 PPG on the road where they are just 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS. Minnesota has struggled to cover the spread in home games the L3 seasons (32-55 ATS!), but are underpriced for a change here tonight. 10* Minnesota

8* Detroit (7:35 ET): The Pistons turned in a really strong effort last night, beating Charlotte on the road, 112-89 (as four-point underdogs). Yet they're certainly not getting much respect tonight here in Boston. One would have to assume they're being falsely penalized for the back to back situation, but we can use that to our advantage here and grab what I believe - clearly - is an inflated number. Boston was expected to be the #2 team in the East this year (behind Cleveland), but has yet to play anywhere near that level. In fact, I have them rated as the sixth best team in the East right now, which is actually lower than last season! While they've covered three straight times as a favorite, the Celtics are laying too many here.

Interestingly enough, the C's have won their last four road games, but lost two in a row here at home. That has more to do w/ who they've played as the last two teams to come here to Beantown were Golden State and San Antonio. Their last four visits were to Detroit, Brooklyn, Minnesota and Miami. Yes, Detroit is included in there as they beat the Pistons 94-92 as two-point underdogs back on November 19th. I didn't see enough there or subsequently to justify this rather sizable shift in the marketplace. Boston still ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of defensive efficiency. Al Horford is back from paternity leave, but I still don't think that alone justifies the price increase. Over the last 19 days, the Celtics have only one win by more than eight points and it was against sorry Brooklyn.

Making the Pistons blowout of the Hornets all the more impressive was that they did so largely w/o the services of Andre Drummond, who was ejected in the second quarter for throwing an elbow. While still only 2-8 ATS on the road this year, I think we'll start to see the Pistons take advantage of some generous spreads like this one. They too were expected to make a leap in the Eastern Conference standings and early on it appeared as if the "cart had been put before the horse." But over the L5 games, they're holding teams to just 95 PPG and that includes a really impressive win over the Clippers. Taking the points is the way to go here. 8* Detroit

8* Miami FL (7:00 ET): Following last night's proceedings, we're down to only 19 remaining unbeatens in College Hoops. Three went down yday: Maryland (who I faded), Houston and Tennessee State. More of these teams are likely (guaranteed) to fall in the coming days and tonight I'm targeting Rutgers, who seems like the surest of the bunch to go down. Not only are the Scarlet Knights the second weakest of those 19 remaining unbeatens (only Texas A&M-CC weaker), they are huge underdogs tonight at Miami. But I don't think the spread is large enough as the 'Canes should absolutely roll Wednesday night as they return home smarting off B2B losses. Lay the points.

Though Miami is not in the Top 25, I believe them to be worthy of discussion for being ranked. Yes, they did just lose to Iowa State and Florida in the Advocare Invitational, but those are both worthy adversaries. Poor shooting, not to mention turnovers, cost them in both contests. They shot just 37.7 percent from the floor against Florida and 36.0 percent vs. ISU. There were a combined 32 turnovers. I envision the shooting will improve tonight and the number of turnovers will come down. This will be just the third "true" home game for Jim Laranaga's team. They did beat a good Stanford team in their first game in Lake Buena Vista. Defensively, I see no issues as the team ranks 28th in FG% defense (37.4) and 12th in scoring (58.7 PPG). 

Tip your cap to this start from Rutgers as the program has not had a winning season since 2005-06. They went 7-25 SU last year, including a horrendous 1-17 mark in the Big 10. But before we go anointing the Scarlet Knights anything that they are not, let's note they have yet to play anyone of any real substance these first six games. They're off a narrow, two-point win over Hartford where the GW basket was scored w/ just six seconds remaining. My guess is that had that result gone the other way (which it easily could have), then this line would be much higher and basically where it SHOULD be. In fact, the Scarlet Knights actually trailed Hartford at one point by as many as 13 pts in the second half! This team does not shoot the ball well at all (just 43%) and has been fortunate to get bailed out by an unsustainable rebounding rate. They won't have that here and you have to figure the shooting woes will continue against a strong defensive foe like Miami. 8* Miami

10* Marshall (7:00 ET): It's yet another unbeaten that I'm targeting on Wednesday, this one happening to be Ohio University. The Bobcats are 4-0 SU, easily the fewest wins of any of the 19 remaining unbeaten teams in the land, and hardly crack my own top 100. The do have a win over Georgia Tech, on the road no less, but tonight I don't see them having that kind of success in Huntington, WV where Marshall awaits, looking to exact revenge from an 85-70 loss in Athens LY. The Thundering Herd also are off their first defeat of 2016, that coming at the hands of Ohio State on Friday, 111-70. After suffering that kind of blowout and already looking for revenge, I look for the Herd to come out highly motivated this evening.

When these teams met last season, Ohio enjoyed a sizable edge in free throw attempts (+20!) and w/ 12 more makes than Marshall, that was essentially responsible for the final margin. It should also be pointed out that the Bobcats shot the ball quite well (50.8%). But it's a little concerning to see that they were at only 37.3% from the field against Tennessee Tech on Friday, a game they failed to cover as 16.5-point chalk. It should also be pointed out that OU was 11.5-point favorites last season, so Marshall has obviously improved. The Thundering Herd are likely to do better than 22.7% shooting from three-point range (5-22) now that they're at home.

Both teams defend the three-pointer well, but Marshall does it better. Opponents are shooting just 28.6% from behind the arc against them this year and that's after Ohio State's blistering performance on Friday. Meanwhile, it's really just one game helping Ohio's three-point FG% defense, that being the upset of Georgia Tech (youngest team in the country!) where the Yellow Jackets were a dreadful 3 of 11. Kenny Kaminski made five three-pointers in that game, but his status is listed as questionable for tonight due to a shoulder injury. That looms large. Meanwhile, Marshall gets back starter Ryan Taylor after the one-game suspension vs. Ohio State. That suspension was actually HC Dan D'Antoni's decision due to Taylor getting ejected from the team's 71-61 win over Jackson State. I like Marshall in this one. 10* Marshall

8* Puck Line Arizona (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only were I am taking the Coyotes +1.5. The 'Yotes have actually B2B games, both over Edmonton, by one goal. They also hold a recent one-goal victory over tonight's opponent, the Sharks, making it three one-goal wins in the last four games. Not to be outdone, six of San Jose's last seven games have been decided by one goal, including all four losses. They fell 3-2 at home to Anaheim on Saturday, following a 3-2 win over the Islanders on Friday. With all of these recent one-goal games, on both sides, playing the puck line here seems to be a logical move.

The last three meetings between these Pacific Division rivals have all stayed Under, including two surprising Coyotes wins so far in 2016. Both games were 3-2 finals, yet saw Arizona outshot significantly. They actually allowed 86 total shots to the Sharks, so it's somewhat miraculous that they managed to go 2-0. The last one went into overtime. Overall, four of the 'Yotes' last six games have gone into OT, which is all we need here. Also, 14 of their 20 games this season have been decided by a one goal margin! Again, a one-goal game either way works to our benefit tonight. In the same vein, 13 of the Sharks' 22 games this year have been decided by one goal.

In their last six road games, Arizona has suffered just one regulation loss. Goaltender Mike Smith is having a pretty good season and has been red hot of late w/ a .935 save percentage his L4 starts. He's also played well in the past against San Jose, turning in a 2.09 goals against average, .946 save percentage and two shutouts. It was a season-high 43 saves that he made the last time these teams met and he made 41 more saves Sunday vs. Edmonton. The Sharks have not won a game by more than one goal in three weeks! 8* Puck Line Arizona +1.5

10* Illinois (9:00 ET): Though I'm not feeling too good about the Big 10's overall prospects in this year's "Challenge" vs. the ACC, here's a game where I feel the conference can "steal one." Granted, John Groce's Fighting Illini come into this one having not covered a single game in 2016. But, even after three consecutive losses, I like this line a lot. NC State is off a real nailbiter, 79-77 over Loyola IL, which was their second two-point victory of this campaign already. The first came in the opener against Georgia Southern. The Wolfpack were double digit favorites in both of those games, so imagine what is likely to ensue in a matchup perceived to be far more even by the oddsmakers. Take the points.

A Thanksgiving trip to Brooklyn did not go well for Illinois, but they also had to take on pair of ranked teams in consecutive nights. The first was West Virginia and they were humiliated there, 89-57. Friday saw them go down by double digits again, this time "only" 72-61, at Florida State's expense. That was actually a tie game w/ less than 10 minutes to play, so don't let the final score mislead you. As uninspiring as those results may be, NC State will absolutely be a drop in class for the Fighting Illini in terms of opponent and I imagine Groce will have his team highly motivated as they return home off three consecutive losses. Over the past two seasons, the Illini are a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS when taking the court on a three-game losing streak.

NC State is still w/o Maverick Rowan (concussion) as tonight will be the fifth consecutive game that he's missed. This is in addition to another player,  Omer Yurtseven, being suspended for the first nine games of the season. Note that it was not easy for the Wolfpack on Saturday against Loyola IL as they fell behind by double digits in the first half. Granted, the Ramblers were red-hit from three-point range (58.8%), but that probably shouldn't have happened in Raleigh. Now they play a "true" road game for the first time all year. I look for Malcolm Hill to play better for Illinois tonight as the team avoids what would be a second straight loss to an ACC opponent. 10* Illinois

10* Under Clippers/Nets (7:35 ET): The 14-4 Clippers began the year at an unsustainable clip, posting a defensive efficiency rating that would have put LY's Spurs to shame. So, it's not a huge surprise to find them regressing of late. However, losses to both Detroit and Indiana on the current trip are a bit concerning. Particularly the performance Sunday vs. the Pacers where they finished w/ only 70 points and shot just 31.4%. It was the franchise's first time scoring that few since '03 and it was just the 10th time in Doc Rivers' tenure that they turned the ball over 20+ times. The Clips continue to fly all over the country w/ a stop in Brooklyn tonight and while this SHOULD be an easy one for the road team, I'm looking at the total instead. 

The Nets are in an awful way right now as they've lost seven straight and the best they've done at the betting window during this time is manage one push (0-6-1 ATS). They rank at the opposite end of the spectrum in defensive efficiency (29th) compared to the Clippers, so obviously this shapes up as a very bad matchup for the hosts, who have already lost by 32 to LA once this year. That game started the seven-game slide and five more have been by double digits. In four of the last five games, Brooklyn has allowed the opponent to shoot 55% or better (!) from the floor. Despite that, I do NOT envision the Clips topping their own shooting from the previous game w/ the Nets, which was 53.3% overall and 56% from three-point range. (They were also 17 of 21 from the FT line). 

Brooklyn is a perfect 7-0 Over against Western Conference teams this year, but 5-1 Under the L6 times they've been a home dog of at least 12.5 points. So, like the defensive efficiency numbers, something will have to give here. While the Clips offense was dreadful the last game, their defense remains #2 in efficiency for the year. Brooklyn actually made 10 three-pointers against them in that previous meeting (on 33 attempts!), a number I imagine will decrease tonight. The Clippers scored 71 pts in the first half of that previous meeting as well, another number that likely won't be approached again here. LA's defense wins out tonight and two teams that have been going Over a lot recently conspire to stay Under the total. 10* Under Clippers/Nets

9* Under Lightning/Blue Jackets (7:05 ET): Though neither is in first place in their respective divisions, these are two good teams in my opinion. Right now, I would rank each as the second best club in the respective divisions, Tampa Bay in the Atlantic and Columbus in the Metro, trailing the Habs and Rangers of course. They just met Friday in Tampa Bay and the Jackets came out ahead in a high scoring affair, 5-3. This all being said, both are off a loss where they scored just one goal. Still, the Blue Jackets have done a remarkable job at limiting shots by their opponents recently and the Lightning have Ben Bishop. I'm envisioning a low-scoring affair this evening and am on the Under.

The Under is 12-6-4 in all Columbus games this season. While they are 4th in goals per game (#1 power play), they also ranks sixth in goals allowed, which gives them one of the best goals differentials in this sport. The 2-1 loss to Florida on Saturday went to a shootout. That was a real frustrating loss for the Blue Jackets considering they outshot the Panthers 37-23. Over its last five games, they've held opponents to an average of 23.8 shots per game. Tampa Bay has not been as good in that department recently and as a result, they've allowed nine goals the L2 games. But the Under is a perfect 4-0 this season in road games where the total is 5.0. The Lightning have also not gotten off many shots of late, averaging just 26.2 the L5 games.

We're getting both #1 goalies here - Ben Bishop and Sergei Bobrovsky. While the two combined to allow eight goals in Friday's meeting, I expect far better play in tonight's rematch. Bishop is a far better netminder than what he's shown the L2 games while Bobrovsky has a save percentage of .930 here on home ice. Before that last meeting, the Under had gone an impressive 17-4 in all meetings between these teams and that includes a 9-2 mark here in Ohio's capital. With the teams playing for the second time in five days, there will be a greater sense of familiarity and thus a tighter game w/ fewer goals scored. 9* Under Lightning/Blue Jackets

8* Pittsburgh (7:00 ET): Early returns have indicated that this year's ACC vs. Big 10 Challenge may end up a fairly one-sided affair in favor of the former.  Now, you wouldn't deduce that judging from last night's 1-1 split, but rather the body of work that lies outside the official "Challenge" where ACC teams rocked their Big 10 counterparts in a number of early season matchups. The ACC has not won this event since 2008, but already is 7-1 head to head vs. the Big 10 in 2016! Interesting is that of the 22 teams still w/o a loss nationally, six will be participating in this event. That should make for some interesting fade opportunities, including this one w/ 7-0 Maryland, who will get perhaps their stiffest test to date w/ a visit from Pittsburgh. Take the points.

The Terps may be unbeaten, but this has the "feel" of a pretty even matchup. Pitt has lost only one time, to SMU at a neutral site. I think that a big key here is the fact Maryland is coming off a much tougher weekend and may have less "in the tank." While Pitt made 11 three-pointers in a 76-63 win over Morehead State on Friday, Maryland had to play close games w/ both Richmond and Kansas State Friday & Saturday in Brooklyn. The 69-68 win over Kansas State, as three-point underdogs, saw Melo Trimble make a layup w/ 6.9 seconds remaining to give the Terps the win. It was the team's second upset of the year already as early in the campaign, they went to Georgetown and won 76-75 as 6.5-pt dogs, a game that the Hoyas basically gave away and was again won by Trimble in the final seconds w/ a pair of free throws. 

So that's two last second, one-point victories for Maryland in seven games, which is pretty fortunate. In fact, they already have five wins by six points or less! That includes home games against American and Towson State. Teams are going to start shooting better from three-point range against the Terps than they have been thus far (28.7%). Earlier, if you recall, I mentioned the fact that Pitt sank 11 three-pointers in their last game. They come in averaging 81.3 PPG overall. With the spread being so short, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if this ends up being an outright win by the dog. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Over Hawks/Warriors (10:35 ET): What an interesting matchup we have here as it's a battle of the most efficient offense and the most efficient defense in the entire league. The fact that the Hawks own the latter distinction (allow just .97 pts per possession) is of little consolation, however, to a team that comes in as losers in five of their last six games. They fell last night in Los Angeles, not to the Clippers, but rather 109-94 to the Lakers. The fact that Atlanta has been held under 100 pts in every game during this 1-5 SU slide is a big reason why the Under is now 8-0 their last eight games. They should score more tonight, but they'll of course give up a lot more points as well and thus I'm on the Over here. 

Golden State is tops in the league at 1.15 points per possession. Thats by far and away #1 as Cleveland is #2, averaging 1.11. With Kevin Durant becoming more and more fully integrated, this has a chance to be the greatest offensive team of all-time. To put that efficiency rating into some perspective, the most efficient offense we've ever seen is the 2009-10 Phoenix Suns at 1.12. The fact that the Warriors are ahead of last year's pace offensively was to be expected, but should not be understated. This is a team that has not lost a game since November 4th. Since then, they've reeled off 11 consecutive victories while averaging an astounding 121.6 PPG. They've scored 115 in all but two of the games.

Atlanta's offensive numbers took a massive hit w/ a dreadful outing Friday night in Utah where they finished w/ only 68 points on 31.1% shooting. Needless to say, that likely ends up being their worst offensive effort of the entire season. They improved somewhat last night against the Lakers, scoring 94, but I'd expect even more scoring here as GSW is allowing 107.7 PPG at home. Meanwhile, the Hawks defense which had been so good at the start of the year, has now allowed 100+ in five of the last seven games. The back to back scenario does them no favors here, even though they are 4-0 SU/ATS when playing w/o rest this season. I do think the Hawks will have more success on the interior tonight against the undersized Warriors and don't discount the impact of the Warriors fouling Dwight Howard a lot. They've done so in the past and if Howard can convert at any kind of competent level, then we'll be in good shape here. 10* Over Hawks/Warriors

8* Butler (9:00 ET): It speaks volumes to the discrepancy between the the two teams that Butler comes in favored here in Salt Lake City. To me, the Bulldogs are a Top 25 team. But I can't say the same for the host Utes, even though they too are still undefeated. Butler has raced out to a 6-0 SU start, including wins over Vanderbilt and Arizona on consecutive nights (Thurs and Fri) over Thanksgiving Night. This marks their first "true" road game, but the Bulldogs also represent Utah's first "real" competition. The Utes' 4-0 SU start includes wins over the likes of NW Nazarene, Concordia, Coppin State and UC-Riverside. The two D-I opponents both rank outside my top 250 w/ 0-7 Coppin State being one of the worst teams in the entire country. Butler is both better overall and more battle-tested. Lay the short number.

With six new players on the roster, many though this would be a rebuilding year for Butler. Think again? They proved they are for real by beating the #8 ranked team in the land (Arizona) Friday in Las Vegas. It's not like that win surprised the oddsmakers; the Bulldogs actually came in as the slight favorite! Again, I feel this is one of the 20 best teams in the country right now. While shooting the ball at a 50% clip themselves, including 38.5% from three-point range, Butler is holding its opponents to just 41.3% from the field. By the way, they've also now covered 22 of the last 32 non-conference games! Already, they have three wins over Power 5 teams (N'western, Vandy, Arizona). 

All we really know about Utah at this point is they are tall. The schedule thus far has been ranked as the easiest in all of Division I! Like Butler, there's been a lot of roster turnover from last year. The fact the Utes have won 32 straight at home vs. non-conference foes should be respected, but again this line "speaks for itself." Butler probably will be in the Top 25 by tipoff and I see them staying there. 8* Butler

10* Philadelphia (8:25 ET): Let's just come out and say it - the Packers are simply not a very good football team in 2016. They arrive here in the City of Brotherly Love on a four-game losing streak after being blown out last Sunday night by Washington, 42-24. Curiously, the line is roughly the same this week, on the road against another NFC East foe. I think that's the oddsmakers taking advantage of the fact GB continues to be a very "public" team in spite of all the losing. The Eagles are actually a much tougher opponent than the Redskins as the former comes in ranked an impressive fourth in the league in point differential. Normally, I might be scared of laying "the hook," but in this instance, I'm envisioning a double digit win for the home team. Lay the points.

I have to admit that I was very wrong about the Eagles. Coming into the year, I projected them to be one of the worst teams in all of football.  They're currently 5-5 SU, but the reality is that they are even better than that record. Were it not for an 0-4 SU record in games decided by 7 pts or less (all on the road), they'd be in better shape. Here at home, they're a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS, outscoring opponents by 17.5 PPG. Two weeks ago, they held the high-flying Falcons to just 15 points here. This is one of the best defenses in the entire league right now as not only are they seventh in yards allowed per game, they're fifth in scoring. At home, they allow an average of just 9.5 PPG!

Green Bay, on the other hand, has quite the lousy defense. Their secondary was absolutely shredded LW by Kirk Cousins and overall they allowed a frightening 8.62 yards per play. A big reason for that is they are down both starting corners and both starting inside linebackers! Can Carson Wentz take advantage? I think so. Overall, this Packers' D is allowing a 71% completion percentage on the road! While Aaron Rodgers is still great, he has no support and no run game to speak of. Another "hidden" edge for the Eagles in this game lies on special teams, they are one of the best in the league in the "third phase" of the game while the Packers are one of the worst, particularly when it comes to covering kickoffs. Green Bay has won only two of the last 10 times it has been an underdog. 10* Philadelphia

8* NY Islanders (7:05 ET): Yes, I'm well aware that the Isles are languishing in last place in the Metro and that their 16 points are currently the fewest in all of the league. But this is a short price facing who I believe is the worst team in the league, at home no less. I went through many of Calgary's shortcomings in yday's analysis for a play where I successfully played the Over. The Flames lost 5-3, a score that didn't surprise me in the least given both teams' goaltending issues. Speaking of goaltending, it appears as if it will be Thomas Greiss starting between the pipes for New York. Either way, if it's him or Jaroslav Halak, the Isles have the edge in that department and are still the better team overall.

To rehash from yday, the Flames have the second worst save percentage in the league currently (.884), ahead of only the team they lost to last night. It looks like free agent bust Brian Elliott will be the starting goalie tonight after Chad Johnson didn't perform well Sunday in Philadelphia. Elliott has an awful .882 save percentage in all games thus far. But save percentage and goals allowed aren't Calgary's only issues. This team does little well as they also rank 26th in the league in goals per game. Their special teams are the worst in the league as they rank dead last on the power play (10.5%) and 29th in penalty killing (75.8%). They've been outshot badly in each of the L3 games (113-81 total) and don't have Johnson to bail them out here. Last night, they gave up a season-high 43 shots to the Flyers. What's somewhat remarkable about last night is the Flames scored twice while short-handed and still lost comfortably. Not a good sign.

The only reason that the Islanders have fewer points than the Flames right now is due to the fact they've played four less games. The road has been unkind to the Isles (1-6-1), but they're a more respectable 5-4-3 at home. This is a team that's suffered eight one-goal losses thus far, so it's case of being more unlucky than bad. Five times already, they have allowed a GW goal in the final three minutes of regulation. That includes Friday's improbable result where they tied the game vs. San Jose w/ only 57 seconds remaining, only to give up the GW 35 seconds later. Over the previous two seasons, New York has swept all four meetings w/ Calgary. I like this matchup a lot from their perspective. 8* NY Islanders

10* Under Rockets/Blazers (9:05 ET): This is a really high total, but considering Houston's reputation and Portland's results, that should not be a surprise. The Rockets, as you'd expect under HC Mike D'Antoni, are top five in the league in points per game. But don't think for a second the oddsmakers weren't anticipating this. The average total for their games has been 215 points and as a result, the Under 10-6 overall, including 7-1 when they're coming off a game where they scored 105+ points. Here, they are off a 117-104 win over Sacramento where they set a NBA record w/ 50 three-point attempts. Facing a Portland team that is playing - on average - the second highest scoring games in the league (trailing only Golden State), there is a recipe for a ton of points here. But the total is too high. Take the Under.

The Blazers' defense, or rather lack of it, has been really bad. They are actually dead last in the league in efficiency, giving up 1.09 points per possession. They were recently torched by Cleveland (allowed 80 first half pts), a team that like Houston makes its living scoring off made baskets. But the defense was a lot better vs. New Orleans (allowed only 104 pts) on Friday. Note that despite all the poor defensive numbers, Portland games are still averaging just 222.2 PPG. I expect the defense to improve moving forward while their own scoring should decrease. The Under is 2-0 this year when they're off a double digit win.

These teams did already meet this year and it was Houston winning 126-109 at home. That's a bad precedent from our perspective, but the likelihood of the teams combining to shoot 37 of 46 from the FT line again is small. That was Houston's second highest scoring game of the season. The number of three-pointers made by both teams - Houston in particular - that we've seen recently should start to decrease. On a sheer attempt basis, the Rockets probably won't come close to matching the number from the last game. Meanwhile, Portland will not dominate the interior here like they did vs. New Orleans. 10* Under Rockets/Blazers

10* Over Chiefs/Broncos (8:30 ET): This is a big game in the AFC West as both teams are trying to keep pace w/ the first place Raiders. The loser here will be two games back w/ only five to play. There is a good shot that all three teams in the division make the playoffs. Denver is off its bye and at home, giving them a slight advantage, plus they have generally had KC's number the last few seasons. A seven-game series win streak was snapped in the second meeting LY thanks to a poor performance from Peyton Manning. But I'm staying away from the side here and instead turning to the total. The number is obviously low, but despite the perceived edges of the defenses, I see this one sneaking Over the total. This is the lowest total for either team to date in 2016.

The Chiefs have gone Under their last six games, which is a big reason this O/U line is so low. But it's how much lower than previous O/U lines that has caught my eye. The average O/U line for their games this season is 45.5. I think their defense has been a little overrated considering they're giving up an average of 410.7 yards per game the L3 weeks. They gave up 442 last week to Tampa Bay in a 19-17 upset loss at home. As you should be able to surmise from that score, the Bucs settled for a lot of field goals. Kansas City seems to have a real "bend but don't break" unit considering they are 25th in yards allowed, but 5th in scoring. That doesn't seem like a sustainable blueprint for success.

The Broncos' defense ranks 4th in yards allowed and eighth in scoring, so I'll give them the edge on that side of the ball. Offensively, note they have also scored at least 20 points in four consecutive games. I think that the bye will do wonders for this offense this week. Note that this is the lowest total for a Chiefs-Broncos game since Week 17 of 2011, which was the year we were all "blessed" with Tim Tebow as Denver QB. Each of the last seven meetings have seen at least 41 total points scored. The Broncos last three games have all seen at least 46 total points scored. I look for both QB's to make enough plays to held send this one Over the total. 10* Over Chiefs/Broncos

9* Over Flames/Flyers (7:35 ET):  This is a matchup where we should see plenty of goals. Anytime Philadelphia is involved, the prospects for a high-scoring affair are strong due to their lousy goaltending. I cited that lousy goaltending as a reason to play against them on Friday against the Rangers. Sure enough, they gave up three goals and lost. The Flyers come into Sunday w/ the worst overall save percentage in the league at .879 and are dead last in the league in goals allowed per game (3.3). As a result, tonight will mark the long-awaited debut of rookie netminder Anthony Stolarz.

But any gains Philly makes between the pipes due to Stolarz will be mitigated by an opponent also known for giving up goals in bunches. Calgary is 28th in overall save percentage (.895). Shockingly, they've allowed just one goal in B2B road wins over Boston and Columbus, but don't expect that trend to last. Yes, Chad Johnson has been a nice savior in place of Brian Elliott, who is looking like a free agent bust. But I do not expect Johnson to be able to keep up the pace. The team is giving up an average of 34 shots the L3 games. Despite a relatively pedestrian 10-12-1 SU record, I actually have the Flames rated as one of the worst teams in the entire league.

One big edge Philadelphia should have here is their second ranked power play going up against the league's 29th ranked penalty kill. So when the Flyers do have a man advantage, look for them to take advantage. When these teams met last year here in the city of Brotherly Love, it was a 5-3 game w/ 61 total shots. I look for something similar here. Overall, the Over is 13-7-2 for the Flyers this year, including 5-0-2 vs. Western Conference teams. 9* Over Flames/Flyers

10* Stanford (7:00 ET): This is the final day of the Advocare Invitational as Stanford and Seton Hall play a consolation game. Both teams lost in the first day of the event, Stanford to Miami FL and Seton Hall to Florida. Each bounced back yday. Stanford beat Indiana State 65-62, but failed to cover as six-point favorites. Seton Hall took on Quinnipiac and while they won 90-79, the too failed to cover (as lofty 22-point favorites). You may recall from a play earlier this year that I've identified the Cardinal as a 'play on' team for 2016. Meanwhile, as you may also recall, I just played against Seton Hall vs. Florida, citing the Pirates' ATS record from last season as a driving force to fade them more often than not this season. Take the points.

Things started well this year for Stanford as they opened 4-0 SU, covering their first three lined games. I had them in the opener against Harvard, a game they won 80-70 as 3.5-point favorites. They followed that w/ dominating wins over CS-Northridge and Weber State. A 16-point spread proved to be too much against Colorado State, though they still won SU, 56-49. Poor shooting has hurt them here in Lake Buena Vista though. Against Miami, things started well w/ a nine-point first half lead. But after going into the break up by just four, they allowed Miami to shoot a ridiculous 62.5% after halftime. Stanford shot just 41.2% and was actually worse against Indiana State (36.5%) despite winning that one. It took a massive edge at the free throw line and a last second three to pull out the 65-62 win Friday, but I still liked what I saw enough to endorse the Cardinal here. 

Seton Hall, unlike Stanford, has shot the ball well this season. The one exception though was the game I went against them. They made only 42.9% from the floor against Florida, scoring a season-low 76 points. But while the Pirates can score, can they play defense? They've allowed an average of 81 points the L3 games, so as a favorite it's going to be tough to cover. While they were 22-10-1 at the betting window last year, Seton Hall is just 1-3 ATS this year, the lone cover being the upset at Iowa. Bad news (for them) is that Pirates starting forward Ismael Sanogo is a game-time decision due to a shoulder issue. Defensively, the Cardinal are the much better team here as they hold teams to just 36.9% shooting overall, including 26.7% from three-point range. 10* Stanford

10* Ottawa (6:00 ET): The Stampeders are the overwhelming favorites here, but it is the REDBLACKS that are in this game for a second consecutive season. Obviously, there is no denying that the Stamps should be favored as they were - by far - the best team in the league this year. They come into the Grey Cup sporting a 15-2-1 SU record and have outscored opponents by over 200 pts over the course of the season. For the sake of comparison, Ottawa has actually been OUTSCORED this season. Calgary just rolled B.C. in the Western Final, 42-15, and led that game 32-0 at halftime. But let's not discount what Ottawa did, upsetting Edmonton 35-23 as two-point dogs in spite of a -3 turnover margin. I'm taking the points here.

Since Ottawa returned to the league three years ago, these teams have met a total of six times. Calgary has four wins, all by double digits. But the other two games have seen Ottawa produce a win and a tie. The tie came earlier this year and while Calgary won the rematch in Alberta, 48-23, let's note the line. They were eight-point favorites at McMahon Stadium in September. Now they're laying more points at a neutral setting. For what it's worth, the Stamps two losses and tie all came away from home this year. With this game being played in Toronto, the REDBLACKS should "feel more at home" and have the edge in crowd support.

As always, we can use public perception to our benefit. The CFL certainly isn't the most "public" sport, but overwhelmingly, everyone is picking the Stampeders to win here. Because of that, we have an inflated line. Because they clinched the Western Division, Calgary has played only one meaningful game in the L7 weeks (last week). For 7.5 quarters, Ottawa played them really tough in the regular season, not just in the tie, but the rematch in Calgary was actually an eight-point game w/ just five minutes remaining. The Stamps scored two late TD's there for somewhat of a misleading final. Ottawa has the best passing attack in the league (6,000+ yards!) and QB Henry Burris didn't even play in either regular season matchup w/ Calgary. Meanwhile, the Redblacks defense held Jerome Messam to just 128 yards total in the two games. I look for this to be a close and exciting Grey Cup! 10* Ottawa

10* San Diego (1:00 ET): While an early start time and bet to the role of favoritism, the reality is this is a great spot for the Chargers. They are coming off a bye while the Texans just played Monday night, in Mexico City no less. In all due respect, Houston is just not a very good team. Granted, a pretty clear case could be made that they deserved to beat the Raiders, but San Diego should have beaten the Raiders too. I've said it before, but it bears repeating that the Lightning Bolts are much better than their record shows. That take is reaffirmed by the fact they are +14 in scoring differential. Meanwhile, Houston has been outscored by 34 points so far, fourth worst in the AFC. So what I'm saying is that San Diego absolutely should be favored here. Lay the points.

There have been multiple games this year that the Chargers lost that they probably should have won. Last time we saw them, they outgained Miami, only to be undone by four Philip Rivers INT's. That's a very uncharactertistic performance from the veteran signal-caller. That said, the team does lead the league in turnovers, something that can easily be rectified. The bye has allowed several injured players to return, one of them ILB Denzel Perryman. There's no denying which side has the better offense here; San Diego averages 29.2 points per game. Look for Rivers to use his tight ends and running backs out of the backfield w/ a great deal of success. Oakland's Derek Carr went 11 of 12 for 199 yds and two touchdowns on such pass attempts Monday night.

The Texans come in averaging only 18.1 PPG and w/o question are one of the worst offenses in the league. They'd been held under 300 total yards in four of their five games previous to MNF. One would have to think that there's some serious "buyer's remorse" going on w/ QB Brock Osweiler right about now. Can you believe this offense has gone four straight games w/o a pass play of 25+ yards? Osweiler is completing only 54 percent of his pass attempts to talented WR DeAndre Hopkins. Yes, I know the Texans are unbeaten at home this year (5-0 SU/4-0-1 ATS), but they are just 1-4 SU/ATS L3 seasons as a home dog of three pts or less. The Chargers are a remarkable 27-4 ATS L31 games vs. the AFC South. 10* San Diego

10* Cleveland (1:00 ET): The 0-11 Browns are rapidly running out of spots to pick up their 1st win. I realize that they probably are not the team that you want to see endorsed in this space, however, this just might be their best remaining spot to record the elusive SU win. My only concern is this is their 12th consecutive game w/o a bye. But that's mitigated by the fact that the Giants' 7-3 SU record is quite misleading. Big Blue has actually outscored its opponents by only four points ALL SEASON and unlike LY have generally been winning their games close. A close Giants win (as in less than 7 pts) is just fine by me here as I'll be taking the points. All seven NY wins this year have been by seven points or less, incuding a come from behind effort LW, at home, against the lowly Bears.

Let's go back to last week, shall we? The G-Men fell behind 16-6 early in the second quarter, but the defense pitched a shutout from that point on and they were able to rally for a 22-16 win. However, it was a fourth straight pretty pedestrian effort from Eli Manning and the offense, which is currently thing along the offensive line. Going back to last month, they gained only 232 total yards in a 17-10 road win over the Rams. After that came a bye and then three consecutive home games. Eagles' QB Carson Wentz essentiallt gifted them a win w/ two early INT's. Then, on a Monday nighter, they were fortunate to convert a late fourth down gamble to get by the Bengals. Then came the Bears last week. The fact that every Giants win has been by a TD or less should give the Browns some hope here.

Though 0-11 SU and 2-9 ATS, the Browns have made a habit of hanging tough most games. Last week, there were two plays that radically altered the result here at home vs. Pittsburgh. The first came on an untimed down at the end of the first half following a pretty bogus pass interference call. The Steelers took advantage w/ a TD + 2 pt conversion. The second was a strip sack in the end zone w/ just 3:36 remaining in the game, which was the Steelers only other TD. Take those two fluke plays away and it was a dead even game. The week prior, the Browns led Baltimore outright at the half! They also led the Jets big at the half, here at home, a few weeks ago. I don't think Josh McCown is any worse of an option under center than anything else HC Hue Jackson can choose from. No team wants to lose every game, obviously, so look for Cleveland to continue fighting. This is the most points that the Giants have had to lay in any game this year and it's on the road. 10* Cleveland

10* UMass (11:59 ET): This is the classic overlay w/ a team trying to become bowl eligible. Hawaii is 5-6 SU and needs a win here to get to the postseason. I really respect what 1st year HC Nick Rolovich has done out on the Island, but the Warriors have failed to cover their last four games, a stretch that has seen them win SU just one time - last week by 1 (14-13) at Fresno State. So the idea of them being asked this much weight, even given the circumstance, doesn't seem right. Admittedly, UMass has not looked good of late and is a 2-9 team. But the players should treat this trip as "their bowl game" and I'll take the points.

One of UMass' two wins came against FCS Wagner. That was their only home game in the final five weeks of the season. Trips to Tulsa and BYU the L2 weeks have predictably gone poorly, but those are good teams. The Minutemen also have the distinction of playing South Carolina tough earlier this year, in Columbia, as they lost that game by only six points. Going from being a MAC team to an Independent probably was not a wise decision for this program (losing out on that Western Michigan money!) and having 10 starters back essentially ensured this would be a rebuilding year for HC Mark Whipple. But his offense has averaged nearly 6.1 yards per play the L3 weeks and I think will be able to move the ball against a Hawaii defense that gives up yards in bunches (6.3 YPP).

Hawaii is still getting accustomed to the role of favorite. Last year, they went 0-4 ATS laying points and lost two of the games outright. This year, they are 0-3 ATS in that role after last week's non-cover. So that's 0-7 ATS as chalk the L2 years with four outright losses. This year, they lost outright to both UNLV and New Mexico. This is just the third time laying a TD or more against a FBS foe the L2 years. While the Warriors have won four straight home finales, three of them have been by seven points or less. Last year, they were outgained by their three non-conference visitors despite a 3-0 SU record. Over the L3 games, they are being outgained by roughly 150 YPG. Maybe Hawaii wins here, but if they do, it won't be by much.  10* UMass

10* Minnesota (10:35 ET): This is the second game of a back to back for both teams and both won last night. Minnesota, per the usual, dominated a lesser foe. Golden State swept a home and home w/ the Lakers. Again, I'm bucking a little history here as the T'Wolves are an almost unfathomable 0-16 SU (3-13 ATS) off their last 16 double digit victories. I'm willing to guess that most of the spreads haven't been this high, however. Yes, that has plenty to do with the opponent, but I believe that a) the T'Wolves are much better than their actual record and b) the Warriors are due for a letdown after winning 10 in a row. Take the points here.

Minnesota's five wins this year have come against Memphis, the Lakers, Orlando, Philadelphia and Phoenix. All were by double digit margins. They are 0-4 SU/ATS off the previous four victories, but in none of those instances were they getting this level of disrespect from the oddsmakers. I again lean on the fact that Tom Thibodeau's team has a positive point differential and efficiency rating despite the losing record. Last night marked yet another game where they held a double digit lead at one point in the game. That's been happening in almost every game for Minnesota. But usually they're blowing them. Last night was different, however, as they outscored the Suns 31-10 in the fourth quarter. Look for that result to build some confidence for this young team. All five starters scored in double digits last night, by the way.

Minnesota played Golden State tough last season, even winning a game here in Oakland as 14.5-point dogs. There was also a narrow five-point loss at home. Overall, they've covered three in a row at Golden State and are 5-2 ATS against them the L3 seasons in all meetings. The Warriors are just 23-26 ATS the L3 seasons as home favorites of 12.5 or more points. It should be noted that GSW shot the ball ridiculously well in the two games against the Lakers (56%!) while Minnesota is coming off two poor shooting efforts (39%). Those should start to even out and while the Warriors are now back to #1 in my own personal power rankings, I do not see them covering tonight. 10* Minnesota

10* Florida State (8:00 ET): The annual rivalry matchup w/ Florida State has become something of a burden for Florida the L2 years. Just like in 2015, they have the SEC Championship Game (vs. Alabama) on deck. Making matters even more difficult for the Gators this year is that they just played LSU last week, a game that had to be rescheduled (Hurricane Matthew) from October 8th. Jim McElwain's team was supposed to be coming off a tune-up vs. Presbyterian, but instead is left to dust itself off after winning a game 16-10 as 13.5-point dogs despite gaining roughly one-third of their total yardage (280 yards) on one play (lone TD). Florida State won this game last year, 27-2 in Gainesville, and should roll again. Lay the points.

Florida's lone TD last week was a 98-yard pass in the third quarter. Other than that, they gained just 172 total yards from scrimmage while giving up 423. It was a goal line stand to close the game that preserved the victory after the Gators had kicked a pair of field goals in the final five minutes. Over its last games, UF is averaging only 15.3 points per game. These offensive woes are nothing new as LY they gained only 262 yds vs. FSU and were held out of the end zone entirely. That was the fourth time in the last six years that they were held to seven points or less by the Seminoles. Not surprisingly, Florida is 1-5 SU the past six years in this rivalry game. It will be Austin Appleby starting at QB tonight and I don't see him doing much.

FSU was largely "written off" following the ugly, early season loss to Louisville. Last second losses to both North Carolina and Clemson will probably keep them out of a "New Year's Day bowl game," but this still remains one of the best teams in the country, at least in my opinion. They put up over 650 yards LW at Syracuse and the final score would have been even uglier than 45-14 were it not for four turnovers. The Seminoles seniors being honored here will be highly motivated by the chance to wrap up their careers at 8-0 vs. Miami and Florida. Meanwhile, Noles HC Jimbo Fisher no longer has to deal w/ LSU rumors. Florida, by the way, is still dealing w/ a number of injuries  - on both sides of the ball. FSU should win this one by double digits. 10* Florida State

10* Clemson (7:30 ET): Clemson finished last year's regular season unbeaten and ranked #1 in the entire country. While they won't finish w/ either of those distinctions in 2016, the path to a second straight playoff appearance remains clear. They'll be a double digit fave in their next two games, this and the ACC Championship. All they need to do is win both and they'll finish in the top four. While there may be no incentive to beat down rival South Carolina here, I nevertheless think they will. How do the lowly Gamecocks keep pace here? Clemson averages 38.5 points per game, South Carolina averages only 20.4 PPG, a number which drops to an unsightly 11.0 on the road. The public is making a huge mistake by throwing its support behind the underdog here. I will lay the points.

For much of the last decade, this Palmetto State rivalry had gone South Carolina's way. But the tide has certainly turned with Dabo Swinney taking Clemson to new heights. The Tigers have won each of the L2 years, including a 35-17 beatdown the last time here in Death Valley. That marked the Gamecocks' largest loss to Clemson since '04. Last year, in Columbia, it was a much closer game w/ the Tigers winning only 37-32 as 20-point chalk. The situation was similar to tonight as Clemson knew it had the ACC Title Game on deck. But, a year wiser and now accustomed to the role of the "hunted," I think they'll fare better. Plus, they are at home. Yes, Pitt beat them here two weeks ago, but that experience should have them highly motivated today as they honor the Seniors.

After having the "bubble burst," I was impressed that Clemson still rolled last week, beating Wake Forest 35-13. They outgained the Demon Deacons 456-197 and while they did not cover, note it was a 28-0 game early in the second quarter. I'm not too worried about the Tigers taking the "foot off the gas" here, however. By the way, this is just the second road game for South Carolina since September 24th! The last one was two weeks ago as they lost 20-7 at Florida. Their most points scored in any of the four road games this year is 14. Clemson has scored 35 or more points in seven of its last nine games. 10* Clemson

10* Montreal (7:05 ET): Yesterday, I won with the Rangers. Today, I turn to the Habs. I see no issue whatsoever playing the best teams in the league at these relatively short prices. While some may still want to stump for Tampa Bay as the team to beat in the Atlantic, the fact is the Canadiens right now sit on top of the division and it's no secret as to why. The return of Carey Price (missed most of LY due to injury) has been every bit of the difference maker Habs' fans had hoped for as he's turned in a sick .945 save percentage so far, third best in the entire league. He made 31 saves in a 2-1 win over Carolina Thursday night and earlier this year turned in a 25-save shutout of the Red Wings (5-0 Montreal win). Great value on the superior team here.

Not only is Montreal 4th in goals per game allowed, they are fourth in goals scored per game. Hence, only the Rangers have a better YTD goal differential right now. While a home-heavy schedule has definitely helped the Habs thus far (12-1-1 at home), I wouldn't be too worried about this road date. That's because the situation is incredibly favorable due to Detroit having played last night and being w/o goaltender Jimmy Howard.

With Howard between the pipes here, the Red Wings would have had a chance. Howard boasts numbers similar to Price w/ a .940 save percentage and 1.82 goals against average. But Howard got hurt last night (groin) and is expected to be out for a week. This is a brutal blow for Detroit, who now must turn to backup Petr Mrazek, who has a 3.18 GAA and .897 save percentage. That's a serious downgrade from Howard and Mrazek will be no match for Price. Furthermore, last night's game in New Jersey, while a win, went into overtime. It was a 5-4 Wings win, but they are just 1-6 SU this season after allowing 4+ goals the previous game. Over the L3 seasons, the Habs have won seven of the nine head to head meetings w/ the Red Wings. Both losses occurred last year w/ Price out of the lineup. Price is the difference maker here against an unrested, inferior foe playing w/o rest. 10* Montreal

8* Fordham (5:00 ET): UT Arlington is 3-3 SU so far and the results have essentially gone "according to script." Their three wins have all been against non-lined opponents - TX Southern, St. Francis-IL and Mount St. Mary's - while their three losses all came on the road, to Minnesota, Florida Gulf Coast and Arkansas. Here, they have opened as a slight favorite for another three-game trip, which begins in Fordham. The Rams lost their only road game so far, the season opener, 96-59 at East Tennessee State. But they've bounced back with five consecutive home wins, including routs of their only two lined opponents - Rider and St. Peter's. So I see some value in them only needing a SU win this afternoon.

This is also a revenge spot for Fordham, who lost 77-72 (+3) at UT Arlington in the season opener last year. Despite shooting the ball better overall, including from three-point range, the Rams still lost by 5. The key was they only got to the free throw line six times. While they converted every opportunity from the charity stripe, it wasn't enough even w/ UT Arlington shooting only 57.1% there. That's because the Mavericks got to the line 21 times and their six extra makes were essentially the difference. I do not expect that discrepancy to exist today and if it does, it will be in favor of the Rams. Also, the teams both attempt about 21 FT's per game. Fordham is shooting 77% there while UT Arlington is 58.4%.

The Rams have won 16 straight at home against non-conference competition, so you can see why this can be perceived as a great value. Defensively, this team seems to be much improved this year. While the class of opponent can be called into question, they've allowed an average of just 55.8 points the L4 games. Forcing turnovers has been huge as they are averaging over 11 steals per game. On both ends of the floor, Joseph Chartouny has led the way as he's averaged better than four steals per game during these L4 games while on the offensive end he's averaging 16.2 PPG on 56% shooting. Meanwhile, UT Arlington will likely be unable to continue its recent hot shooting from the L2 games (53.4 FG%), here on the road. 8* Fordham

8* Miami FL (3:30 ET): I know there's an outside shot Duke can still get to a bowl w/ a win, but I can't see them being too interested in this season ending trip to Coral Gables. The Blue Devils hopes of becoming bowl eligible were essentially dashed last week w/ a horrible 56-14 loss at Pittsburgh. That was a Pitt team primed for a letdown (were off upset of Clemson) no less. But they instead destroyed Duke w/ a 461-268 edge in total yds. It had been four straight seasons ending in a postseason trip under David Cutcliffe, so 2016 certainly represents a step back in Durham. Furthermore, other than a season-opening win over FCS NC Central, the Blue Devils other three wins have all been by seven points or less. They're really only a few plays away from an 11-game losing streak.

Miami opened the year 4-0, only to lose the next four games. But they've since put together a three-game win streak w/ every win coming by double digits. That includes one over Pitt, 51-28. After whipping UVA 34-14 in Charlottesville, "The U" won 27-13 at NC State, a game they never trailed and outgained the Wolfpack 415-329. I'm sure they'd now love nothing more than to head into the bowl game riding a healthy four-game win streak. QB Brad Kaaya comes in just 146 yds shy of his third straight 3,000 yard season, something no other Miami signal caller has ever done. Also, he's just 275 yards shy of Ken Dorsey's all-time school record. I wouldn't worry too much about this pointspread as the 'Canes are 4-1 ATS the L3 seasons as a home favorite of 10.5 to 21 pts.

Of course, the big talking point here will be LY's controversial finish where an eight-lateral play that shouldn't have counted won it for Miami, 30-27 as 12-pt underdogs. Obviously, as you can tell by the shift in pointspread, much has changed in one year's time. But that has as much to do w/ the fact Duke is just 6-11 SU since that loss. Miami is allowing just 16.2 PPG at home this season. Meanwhile, Duke is allowing 35.6 PPG on the road. I'm calling for a blowout here as Mark Richt's team rolls on to the postseason. 8* Miami FL

8* Notre Dame (3:30 ET): I do believe that the expectation here is that Notre Dame, no longer bowl eligible, is going to be blown out by one of the hottest teams in the entire country. Because of that, we can take advantage of what I feel is an inflated spread. Consider that over the summer, this line was only USC -5. Obviously, the Fighting Irish are no longer worthy of that level of respect from the marketplace. But, despite perceptions, Brian Kelly's team has been more unlucky than bad in 2016. Every loss has been by eight points or less, four by three or less. So, I don't see any reason to expect them to be blown out for the first time now. USC has won seven in a row overall, covering in the last five wins, but after wrapping up the Pac 12 slate w/ an upset of previously unbeaten Washington and blowout of rival UCLA, I don't think they'll be gunning for the blowout either. Take the points.

USC still can get to the Pac 12 Title Game, but only if Colorado loses at home to Utah Saturday night. That game takes place after this one is over and the reality is that USC's result has no bearing on next week's fate. It's not as if this team can make it to the College Football Playoff either; a 1-3 start all but guaranteed that. It should be noted that the Trojans' two wins by 14 pts or less during this streak of theirs came against Colorado and Washington, the only two decent foes they faced. I'm not saying Notre Dame is anywhere near that level, but this is more points than USC had to lay against either Utah State or Oregon. In fact, the only bigger spread they've faced was vs. Cal.

The buzzards might be circling in South Bend w/ rumors of HC Brian Kelly's demise and the program forced to vacate wins due to an academic cheating scandal. But there's still plenty of talent on hand here, notably QB DeShone Kizer. This offense also ran for 200+ yds last week (now done so in B2B games) and led a good Virginia Tech team by 17 pts on two different occasions. They wound up losing 34-31, despite a slight edge in total yards. There are simply too many brutal losses to go through here, so many so, that an upset here could not erase them. But the bottom line is I expect the Irish to keep this one closer than expected. 8* Notre Dame

8* Ole Miss (3:30 ET): Much of the luster has been lost in this year's Egg Bowl as both Mississippi and Mississippi State check in w/ losing records. While I'm sure the 4-7 Bulldogs would love to cost the Rebels' bowl eligibility, that's just not the way I see things playing out here. The home team is 14-3 SU the L17 installments of this rivalry and that includes B2B wins as the lower ranked team in Oxford for Ole Miss. Last year, it was 38-27 Rebels in Starkville as one-point favorites. Last week, it was a struggle offensively (on the road) against a good defensive team in Vandy. This week, I see the Rebels' offense rolling en route to a DD win. Lay the points.

Though not even bowl eligible, I still believe Ole Miss to be among the top 30 teams in the country. Coming off a 10-win season and having beaten Alabama B2B years, expectations were high for Huge Freeze coming into 2016. I faded them in the opener vs. Florida State, a game they led big early. They also came as close as anyone to beating Bama. A three-game gauntlet of Arkansas, LSU and Auburn derailed them, but last week was the head-scratcher as they got dominated by Vandy, 38-17 as 9.5-point favorites. Don't think for a second that these Ole Miss seniors won't be looking to atone for that performance on a day they will be honored.

Mississippi State was also upset last week; albeit only as a one-point fave against Arkansas. Still, they gave up 58 points at home and that's not a good sign here. It was the second straight week the defense allowed 51+ and fourth time in the last five games they allowed at least 40 or more. So you can see why I think the Bulldogs defense is likely to be torched Saturday afternoon. Both Alabama and Arkansas were able to go for 600+ yards on them. While 2-5 in SEC play, Ole Miss is basically even in terms of total yardage. Mississippi State is being outgained by about 70 YPG in league play. So there's a definite reason that the Rebels are decided favorites here. Again, they need to win to become bowl eligible, so that and the chance to beat up on their rival, should be all the motivation they need. 8* Ole Miss

10* Over Canucks/Stars (8:35 ET): Dallas was quite kind to me earlier in the week when they beat Minnesota 3-2, in overtime, here at the American Airlines Center. But sandwiched around that win were a pair of poor efforts where they gave up five goals to both Edmonton and Nashville. Goaltending has been an issue for the Stars not just this season, but in years past as well. It's why they were unable to advance very far in LY's playoffs despite being the Central Division winners. This year, they are tied for the second worst save percentage in the entire league, ahead of only woeful Philadelphia. Speaking of woeful, we have tonight's opponent, Vancouver. The Canucks are 27th in save percentage. These are probably two of my bottom five teams in the league right now (Vancouver certainly) and I see plenty of goals being scored tonight.

Vancouver is actually off a rare win, 4-1 at Arizona, Wednesday night. Scoring really hasn't been the issue for the Canucks, however. They've scored multiple goals in five consecutive games, averaging 3.4 per game. That stretch started w/ a 5-4 win (at home) over Dallas and I can see a repeat of that score taking place tonight. What should frighten the few remaining Canucks fans about that previous meeting is they allowed four goals on only 21 shots. The L3 games have seen the team allow an average of over 34 shots per game. We've seen a real decline in production from Ryan Miller, whose save percentage is below .900 his L4 starts. He was the one that allowed the four goals on just 21 shots vs. the Stars 12 days ago. Note that before holding Arizona to just a lone goal Wednesday, the Canucks had allowed 33 goals over eight games, an average of more than four per contest.

Already mentioned is that Dallas has allowed five goals in two of its previous three games. More than likely it will be Kari Lehtonen going in goal tonight and his save percentage (.848) is just dreadful over the past four starts. Three of the past four meetings between these two have seen at least six total goals scored. The Over is 37-24 for Dallas if they allowed 4+ goals in their previous game. Over is 6-2 for Vancouver when playing a team w/ a losing record. 10* Over Canucks/Stars

10* Charlotte (7:35 ET): It's pretty shocking that the Knicks have a .500 record. They have been outscored by an average of 3.2 points per game this season and have a similar efficiency rating of -3.5. There's only a handful of Eastern Conference teams doing worse than those numbers currently. However, the Knicks have been able to post B2B wins over Atlanta and Portland to start the week to square their record away at seven wins and seven losses. This is a third straight home, but unlike the first two I see no edges for the Knickerbockers. Charlotte should come in plenty motivated (off three straight losses) and is the better team to begin with. They  have started the year by cashing 7 of the 10 times they've been favorites. The number here is virtually irrelevant, but I expect the Hornets to win.

New York had some minor edges heading into their past two games. It was an early start time Sunday vs. Atlanta and those always seem to favor the home side. They were catching the Hawks playing the second of B2B road games as well as Charlotte had just beaten them two days earlier. Then, it was a visit from a Portland team who is actually one of the few with a worse defensive efficiency rating than the Knicks. So, a 107-103 win wasn't too surprising there and note that was a close game (could have gone either way) throughout. I would still be concerned w/ the Knicks defense (26th in efficiency) and I won't even waste my breath touching on the offensive situation as Phil Jackson is still pressing the team to run his antiquated triangle scheme.

Charlotte just played San Antonio really tough on Wednesday night. That was a home game on ESPN that saw them come up five points short as five-point underdogs. Eight Hornets actually scored in double figures there (good sign!), but a season high 16 turnovers really undid them. It was their third straight loss, but that stretch includes a trip to resurgent New Orleans as well. The home loss to Memphis was not ideal, but the Grizzlies have been playing well of late also. The key is all three of those teams are better than the Knicks, who are just 4-10 SU and ATS as home underdogs of three points or less. 10* Charlotte

8* Under Bulls/76ers (7:35 ET): The last seven times that these teams have met, the Over has cashed every time. But I look for a lower scoring game than expected tonight, off the quick holiday break. The Bulls have given up B2B 110 point games to the Lakers and Nuggets. But it's a likely decline in offensive production that I'd be most worried about if I were them. With the Sixers, they rank 28th in offensive efficiency, so don't look for them to put up 110 points here. In fact, they come in averaging only 98.1 PPG and the Bulls did have a four-game stretch recently where they held every opponent below 100. That was before running into the Clippers, Lakers and Nuggets, all high-scoring teams. This is a different kind of opponent. Take the Under.

Chicago had covered six in a row before making the trip to Denver on Tuesday night. There, they held the Nuggets to just 19 pts in two of the four quarters (1st and 4th), but unfortunately they gave up a total of 72 points in the second and third. But again, it's the offense that has surprised me most in the early part of this season as the Bulls rank seventh in efficiency, but only 19th in true shooting percentage. They've been propped up a bit by outstanding free throw shooting (82.1%). But look for these numbers to take a hit due to some continued absences such as Doug McDermott and Michael Carter-Williams. The Under is 6-3-1 in their road games this season.

The Sixers have been one of the worst offensive teams in the league for many years now. They are 29th in efficiency currently, ahead of only Orlando. They're one of just five teams averaging fewer than one point per possession. They just played one of the other four, Memphis, and while that game went Over you should note that was a byproduct of double overtime. Even w/ the additional 10 minutes played, the game still ended up only 104-99. It was 86-86 at the end of regulation w/ both teams shooting below 39% for the game. Joel Embid remains on a minutes restriction, which hurts, and he isn't even going to play tonight as a result. I see a sluggish, lower-scoring type affair tonight. 8* Under Bulls/76ers

10* Illinois-Chicago (4:30 ET): This is the second game for both teams and of the day in the NIU Showcase (Northern Illinois), played here in DeKalb. Obviously, one stands to reason that UIC would have the edge in whatever crowd support is present Friday afternoon. But Cal Poly did just beat the host team of this event, 68-64 as 10-pt underdogs, Wednesday night. However, for that very reason, I'm calling for a letdown here from the Mustangs, who now curiously find themselves in the role of favorite for this second game here. UIC, meanwhile, looks to atone for a 91-80 loss suffered against Elon. The Flames have scored 80+ points in every game so far, making them the proverbial "tough out" taking points.

Interestingly, Cal Poly had dropped its first two "true" road games of the campaign, losing at both Pepperdine and Arizona State by a combined 31 points. Wins over non-lined foes Cat St. Dom Hills and Bethesda weren't enough to impress me, so I actually faded them Wednesday vs. Northern Illinois. That obviously turned out to be a mistake as the Mustangs shot 51.1% from the floor, including 11 of 22 from three-point range, which was probably the difference in the game. After leading for much of the first half, Cal Poly wound up falling behind by six with just over eight minutes remaining in the game and it was looking as if I might have a shot at the cover. But, the Mustangs were able to mount an impressive rally from there and instead take the game outright. Note that they are just 9-14 ATS in the favorite role the past two seasons.

UIC is 2-2 SU on the young season. Besides what happened Wednesday, their only other loss came by two points out in San Francisco. Overall, the Flames have shot the ball quite well thus far. They're at 47.7% from the floor. But they've struggled from beyond the arc, connecting at only 28.2%. Assuming Cal Poly "cools off" from outside (compared to their last game) and UIC has a modicum of improvement in that department, there's your difference maker right there. I just can't see Cal Poly winning B2B games out here in the "Land of Lincoln," so an outright upset is a distinct possibility here. 10* Illinois-Chicago

8* Washington State (3:30 ET): Needless to say, it's been a very long time since the Apple Cup meant this much. What we have here is a de facto Pac 12 North Championship game as both Washington and Washington State are 7-1 in league play. But only UW is considered playoff worthy as admittedly Wazzu did lose its season opener to a FCS school. They also lost at Boise State. But after the 0-2 start, Mike Leach's team won its next eight games. Admittedly, they played only one ranked team during the win streak (Stanford). But "thanks" to LW's loss at Colorado, we are able to get some value w/ this squad. Knocking their rival out of CFP contention while at the same time taking the North is motivation enough for Wazzu, but they also have the matter of looking to erase a three-year losing streak to the Huskies. Take the points. 

I played LY's Apple Cup and took Washington in a 45-10 blowout in Seattle. But, it's important to note that QB Luke Falk did not play for WSU that day. Falk is obviously the team MVP as he's thrown for almost 4,000 yds this season and leads the country in both completions per game and completion percentage. But Falk isn't the only reason I'm taking the Cougars here. Two things seperate this team from past editions, those being an ability to run the ball and defense. They've run for more than their season average (132.5 YPG) each of the last four games. Also, the defense is #1 in the conference against the run (129.5 YPG) and just got back NT Robert Barber. By the way, the Wazzu offense averages 50.2 PPG at home.

That scoring average should scare the Washington defense, which is w/o two key players, Joe Mathis and Azeem Victor. The Huskies getting dominated by USC, at home two weeks ago, was a real eye-opener for me. Sure, they were able to overwhelm Arizona State last week. But the Sun Devils' pass defense is the worst in the Pac 12 to begin with and was without two starters. I'm a little surprised that the line is so high here as the Huskies have failed to cover four of their last five games. They've had two close calls on the road thus far, at Arizona and at Utah, and this will be their toughest trip to date. 8* Washington State

10* Missouri (2:30 ET): Mizzou comes off one of the most confounding results of this entire College season. They rolled up an incredible 740 yards of total offense, but due to four turnovers (among other things), they lost to Tennessee 63-37. It's been "that kind of year" in Columbia for 1st year HC Barry Odom as this will mark just the third time since '02 that the Tigers won't be bowling (3-8 SU/4-7 ATS). For their season finale, they welcome in Arkansas, who is off a minor upset in Starkville LW, 58-42. I know that the West Division's dominance over the East in the SEC is well documented, but the home team has taken both all-time meetings between these two. Something I find curious is that despite the perceived statuses of the respective programs, this is the 1st time that Arkansas will have been favored since Alcorn State on 10.1. Meanwhile, Missouri was actually the favorite in three of its previous five games. Take the points.

Two weeks ago, Mizzou was a big play for me as they finally won an SEC game (snapped 11-game conference losing streak) by beat Vandy 26-17 here at home (were -3.5). Last week, if you had them +17 in Knoxville, I offer my condolences. Yes, the offense (which averages over 500 YPG) rang up the 740 yards, a remarkable achievement by any measure. But somehow a 35-30 game early in the fourth quarter turned into a 63-37 final. The Tigers ran for 420 yards and went for 600+ yards total for the 4th time this season. So I do not anticipate offense being an issue here. Getting points is a nice luxury to have. It just isn't often that you find Mizzou getting this many points at Memorial Stadium.

Yes, I'm well aware that the Tigers will be w/o leading rusher Damarea Crockett, who is suspended. But they still have Ish Witter, who ran for 163 yds himself vs. Tennessee. Arkansas has a very leaky defense, particularly on the ground where they give up 6.3 yards per carry and 216 yards per game. Outside of Fayatteville, the Razorbacks' defense is giving up a frightening 8.1 yards per play, 45.2 points per game and 582 yards per game. Again, laying points w/ those kind of numbers seems to be a terrible combination. This is the first SEC game that the Hogs have been favored in this year! This also marks the first time all year that they've played B2B road games. 10* Missouri

9* NY Rangers (1:05 ET): I don't know about you, but I've got the Rangers rated as the best team in the entire NHL - by a pretty wide margin. Their YTD scoring differential of +29 is double that of all but two teams (Montreal, Tampa Bay) and that comes after them taking a 6-1 loss to Pittsburgh on Wednesday in the back end of a home and home. The opponent tonight is divsion rival Philadelphia, who (as I've said in the past) has major goaltending issues that will prevent the team from being any kind of serious contender in the Eastern Conference this year. Given that the Rangers lead the league in goals scored, this shapes up to be a pretty bad matchup for the hosts on Friday afternoon. 

The Flyers have given up the most goals in the entire Eastern Conference and their collective .880 save percentage is easily a league worst. The goaltending issues reared their ugly head in Wednesday's 4-2 loss at Tampa Bay. Steve Mason allowed two goals within 12 seconds of each other, in the third period, to lose the game. While Mason was strong against Florida on Tuesday, his overall save percentage remains at .893. Might a third start in four nights be too much for him? Philly's only other option here would be to give rookie Anthony Stolarz his first career start. I'm not sure you want to do that against a team like the Rangers, however. Already, the Flyers are just 3-6 SU this season when facing a team with a winning record.

No matter who ends up between the pipes for Flyers, look for the Rangers to take advantage. This team is 25-12 SU the L3 seasons after being held to one goal or less the previous game. The Rangers actually come in having dropped three of four, but as I said earlier they're season-long form has been quite impressive. They are also top 7 in the league on the power play and the penalty kill. Then, of course, we have Henrik Lundqvist who may be the ultimate difference maker in this one. The New York netminder currently sports a .915 save percentage on the road and while he was pulled in Pittsburgh, I can't see B2B bad performances from him. A team averaging nearly 4.0 gpg facing an opponent w/ the worst save percentage in the league is a good matchup. 9* NY Rangers

10* Florida (8:30 ET): It's certainly been an interesting start to the season for Florida. They've yet to play an actual home game as the O'Connell Center is still being renovated. This hasn't seemed to bother them though as they've opened the year w/ four consecutive wins at neutral sites, the most recent being a 78-61 triumph over Belmont on Monday. It was their third double digit victory of the young season so far. Tonight, a much closer game is expected against Seton Hall as part of the Advocare Invitational in Lake Buena Vista. The Pirates arrive in the Sunshine State fresh off a minor upset of an Iowa (in Iowa City!) and while I can see why a lot of people are calling for the same thing here, the value is on the Gators. Lay the short number.

It's not like Florida has had to venture far this season. The first two games of the season were played in nearby Jacksonville and neither Florida Gulf Coast nor Mercer proved to be much competition. St. Bonaventure was able to hang tough in Lakeland last Thursday, but as mentioned above, Belmont was no match in Tampa earlier this week. I feel that the fact the Gators have to play their first 11 games all outside of Gainesville will benefit them greatly. While not ranked, I certainly feel Mike White's team is making a strong case and should be favored by more in its home state. A great sign for the Gators thus far is their free throw shooting is much improved from last year when they ranked 323rd (out of 346) nationally. This year, they are up to 75.2% from the charity stripe and that's proven to be a big edge for them so far (more on that in a bit).

Seton Hall has shot the lights out in their first three games at 54.2% overall. But here they'll be running into a team that has limited its opponents to a 38.4% shooting thus far and only 60 points per game. Free throw shooting can decide games and this year it looks to be a problem for Seton Hall, who is only at 56.6%, barely higher than their overall field goal percentage! Florida has really benefited thus far from poor opponent FT shooting (57.8%), so could that trend continue? Speaking of trends, Seton Hall is due to regress after posting one of the better ATS records in the country last year. The Pirates could come out flat after being off for a week. 10* Florida

9* Under Bruins/Senators (7:35 ET): Oddsmakers were a little late in hanging a number for this Thanksgiving Night matchup in the Atlantic Division, but I like what I see here. Led by goaltender Tuukka Rask, the Bruins aren't giving up many goals this year. In fact, their fifth in gpg currently at 2.3. Over the L5 games, they've been even stingier (1.4 gpg) and that's despite an uncharacteristically poor effort from Rask the last time out. Ottawa is off a strong effort offensively, against a good goaltender no less, beating Carey Price and Montreal 4-3 on Tuesday. But I don't think they'll be able to duplicate that performance tonight as they'd been held to only one goal in three of their previous four contests. Take the Under. 

Even though he allowed four goals in a loss to St. Louis Tuesday, Rask still spots an outstanding .941 save percentage for the year. That's top four in the league right now among goaltenders with at least nine starts. Remember, I had the Over in that game vs. St. Louis. But I just can't see Rask turning in B2B subpar efforts. Case in point, the Bruins are already 4-1 Under this season coming off a game where they allowed 4+ games. The Under is 6-2 in Rask's road starts as well. In front of him, the team is doing an excellent job at limiting opponents' shot opportunities, allowing only 24.2 per game the last five. Offensively, Boston is not as impressive as they rank just 21st in goals per game (scored 2 goals or less in four of last five games) and 22nd in power play. 

These teams played some wild games last season, generally w/ tons of shots on both sides. But the two high scoring games both occurred in Boston. Here in Canada's capital, the scores were 2-1 and 3-1, both in favor of the Sens. Ottawa likely turns to Craig Anderson in goal tonight and he's been quite solid this year w/ a .928 save percentage. But I have to go back to the Sens' offensive woes. Last time out marked the first time this month that they scored at least three times in a game. It was the first time they scored three goals on the same goaltender since 10.18! As a result, the Under is still 8-2 for them in the month of November. 9* Under Bruins/Senators

10* Texas A&M (7:30 ET): Needless to say, both schools were hoping a little bit more would be on the line Thanksgiving Night. But Alabama made sure that the SEC West was decided long ago and now these two are simply relegated for pride. Granted, despite it's now almost-annual late season swoon, Texas A&M probably can still parlay a Sugar Bowl appearance were they to win here. Regardless, I was going to take them anyway as I hate this spot for LSU, who had to play the make-up game LW vs. Florida and lost 16-10 despite giving up only 270 total yards of offense, more than a third of that coming on one play, the Gators' lone TD of the game. Meanwhile, A&M had a virtual layup last week in hosting UTSA here in College Station. Take the points. 

I should point out that the Aggies did not cover LW as they were big 25.5-pt favorites. That's nothing new here in College Station as LW marked the seventh consecutive time the Aggies fell short of the oddsmakers' expectations (after 4-0 ATS start!). But I see them collecting the cash here as they catch a huge break w/ Leonard Fournette not playing for LSU. Compared to past seasons, the Aggies have a good defense (thanks to former LSU DC John Chavis) and I just can't see this LSU offense doing much w/o Fournette. While they've averaged just over 40 PPG in the three games he's missed so far, that's misleading as the opponents were Jacksonville State, Missouri and Southern Miss. 

This is also a big revenge game for the Aggies, who are 0-4 SU against the Tigers since joining the SEC. Getting the game at home is big as their only loss here in College Station this season came by a single point after blowing a 21-6 fourth quarter lead. LSU's two previous wins here came by only five and six points. In two of their last three games, the Tigers have scored 10 and 0 points. Not saying the Aggies have the defense the caliber of Alabama or Florida, but they can hold this offense in check. Also, on the other side of the ball, LSU's top tackler (Kendall Beckwith) is out as well. Interim HC Ed Orgeron is pretty lame duck by this point as it's pretty obvious at this point that he shouldn't get the job.  10* Texas A&M

10* Minnesota (12:35 ET): The Vikings have had quite the interesting season so far. They started 5-0 SU, quickly establishing themselves as a "team to beat" in the NFC. At that juncture, they were an incredible 18-3 ATS over a 21-game span. But what followed was a 0-4 SU/ATS stretch where the offense was anemic to say the least (14.0 PPG). They bounced back last week, however, beating Arizona 30-24 at home. That win guaranteed this would be a battle for first place in the NFC North as Detroit likewise comes in w/ a 6-4 SU record. Despite beating the Jags 26-19, the Lions were actually held under 300 total yds last week and didn't get the cover until the final 22 seconds when they kicked a field goal (only after drawing an encroachment penalty on 4th and 2 earlier in the drive). Detroit has been a tad bit lucky this year, I'd say w/ all six wins coming by 7 pts or less. I think the wrong team is favored here.

One of those four consecutive losses that the Vikings suffered was at home to Detroit, so this is a revenge game for them. The loss took place three weeks ago and was a 22-16 final in overtime. Until last week, that represented the Lions' largest win of the season. Note that to even get to OT they had to have a Matt Prater 58-yard field goal w/ no time remaining in regulation. That was a 4-play, 35-yard drive that began w/ only 23 seconds left. Minnesota never got the ball in OT as Detroit went 11 plays and 87 yards for the win. At the end of regulation, the Vikings held a 337-224 edge in total yards, so even though they were never covering (were -6.5), it would still qualify as a bit of a brutal loss. These teams have alternated season sweeps the L2 years, but this year I'm calling for a split. 

I mentioned earlier that the Lions have been a bit lucky en route to this 6-4 SU record of theirs. Though 5-1 SU last six games, they've been held under 300 total yds five times in regulation during that time! They're being outgained over the course of the season and have a point differential of just +6 for the year. (Minnesota is +29). Honestly, I was a little scared of the fact that the Vikings needed two non-offensive TD's last week to get by Arizona, but then I remembered Detroit did the same! I think the Vikings defense, which ranks #2 in scoring and #3 in yards allowed, ultimately is the difference maker here. Incredibly, the Lions rushed for only 14 yards last week against the Jags. In what figures to be a low-scoring game, I'm taking the points. 10* Minnesota

8* Oklahoma City (10:35 ET): My, how times have changed? The Thunder are crashing, to the point they are now getting points ... in Sacramento? Yikes. Last night brought a brutal loss, to the Lakers, as Nick Young stunned everyone w/ a go-ahead three-pointer w/ only five seconds remaining. The final score was 111-109, OKC's second consecutive defeat by four points or less. They are now only 8-7 SU this season, their first w/o Kevin Durant, but that hardly qualifies them to be a dog to a lowly foe like the Kings. The difference between the Thunder and Pelicans (who I'm playing against in this 3-pack) tonight is expect the former to be more motivated in their unrested situation. Take the points.

Sacramento was on the winning end of a buzzer beater Sunday night, or should I say the right side of a disallowed buzzer beater? Hosting Toronto (were 3-pt underdogs), the Kings led by what ended up being the final score when the Raptors' Terrance Ross hit a three-pointer. But the officials set the clock didn't start on time and disallowed the shot in controversial fashion. Truth be told, the Kings were fortunate they got off to such a strong start (36 first quarter points) as they likely would have lost had the game gone to OT (though I can't prove it!). They also still rank dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. A major story thus far has been their decreased pace of play under HC Dave Joerger.

Oklahoma City was 6-1 SU to start the season and still has Russell Westbrook, who is nearly averaging a triple double. They also rank 6th in defensive efficiency, a far cry from where the Kings are at. Joerger started a smaller lineup against Toronto in an effort to speed the pace up, but the problem w/ that here will be OKC figures to dominate them on the boards. The Thunder are currently fourth in the league in rebounding rate. Oklahoma City was an 8.5-point favorite in both visits to California's capital city last season. Obviously, the departure of Durant must be figured in, but this line is a clear overreaction to recent results by the oddsmakers. 8* Oklahoma City

10* Under Oilers/Avalanche (10:05 ET): Edmonton has been one of the great stories to start the year as they still lead the (weak) Pacific Division. For awhile, it appeared as if they were a mirage as they dropped five in a row from 11/8 until 11/17. But they've bounced back w/ B2B wins, including a most impressive 5-0 shutout of fellow Western Conference division leader Chicago two nights ago. It was their second straight game scoring five times. Tonight they take on a Colorado club that resides at the bottom of the much tougher Central, a distinction largely owed to an anemic offense. While this might seem like an easy one for the Oilers, I think that the Under is the better play here as none of the Avs' previous six games have seen more than five total goals scored.

Coming into tonight, Colorado has scored the second fewest number of goals in the league, ahead of only Buffalo. Some of that has to do w/ playing only 18 games to this point, but still, they are 27th in goals per game average. Recently, they've stayed afloat by allowing an average of just 2.0 goals the L6 games. This despite facing some high shot totals. Three times in the last five games, they've allowed at least 42 shots on goal including 85 total the L2 games (Monday's win over Columbus went to OT). But Semyon Varlamov has been up to the challenge w/ a .951 save percentage his L4 starts. Because there hasn't been more than five total goals scored in any of the L6 games, the Under is 4-0-2 for the Avs during that time.

  But the offense remains a concern w/ Colorado. They started November by scoring a total of only eight goals in the first five games. Edmonton is of course off the shutout win over Chicago and already this season they're 2-0 Under after a shutout win. Their 5-1 in that role the L3 seasons, so they've actually already gone ahead and matched their total # of shutouts from the previous two seasons combined and it's not even December! A lot of the credit goes to netminder Cam Talbot, who has a .920 save percentage in all games thus far. He's likely to be the one between the pipes tonight. 10* Under Oilers/Avalanche

8* Minnesota (9:35 ET): New Orleans embarrassed me (and the Hawks) last night as they went on the road and picked up a surprising 112-94 win as eight-point pups. It was their third consecutive win and cover and fifth straight up win in the last seven games following an 0-8 SU start. The return of PG Jrue Holliday has proven huge as its eases the burden of Anthony Davis, who was left to carry a sorry supporting cast early in the year. But I don't like the Pelicans chances tonight in the second game of a back to back as they face a T'wolves squad that's a whole lot better than its 4-9 SU record shows. Most of their games have been in the pick 'em range thus far, but this is an opponent they should be favored to beat - even on the road.

Believe it or not, Minnesota still sports a positive YTD point differential and efficiency rating despite the losing record. That's largely owed to the fact that their four wins have all been blowouts. The four teams that they've blown out - Memphis, the Lakers, Orlando and Philadelphia - span efficiency ratings that the Pelicans would fall right in the middle of (below Grizzlies & Lakers, but above Magic & Sixers). The T'wolves still rank 7th in offensive efficiency, even after being held to an average of 82 PPG in losses to Memphis and Boston. The game vs. the Celtics was yet another where this team blew a double digit lead (led by 13 entering the fourth quarter). They've now held a double digit lead in virtually every game this season.

The Pelicans are 3-0 SU since Holliday's return, but it was a career night from fellow PG Tim Frazier (21 pts, 14 assists) that set the tone in last night's shocking blowout in Atlanta. Right off the bat, realize that New Orleans is 1-3 SU/ATS this season when playing in the second game of a back to back this season. Don't look for them to duplicate last night's shooting where they were 52% overall and 44% from three-point range. They are also still giving up 113.2 PPG at home, a frightening number considering Davis' presence. Last year, they gave up 144 points to the T'wolves in a loss! 8* Minnesota

10* Northern Illinois (8:00 ET): After losing for the first time, I like the Huskies' chances of getting back on track tonight in DeKalb. Saturday, they lost by two out at Cal State Northridge (covered as 2.5-pt dogs), but here it's a West Coast team having to make the trip to their gym. All things considered, it's been an impressive start for Northern Illinois as they've won all three home games, including one against Indiana State. Can't say the same for Cal Poly-SLO, however, as the Mustangs lost and failed to cover their first two road games, at Pepperdine and Arizona State. Back to back home wins over the likes of Cal St Dom Hills and Bethesda aren't going to change my view of this team whatsoever. Lay the points.

This is NIU's own tournament, so you'd naturally expect them to play well. Elon and IL-Chicago are also in DeKalb this week and will be the next two opponents for both teams with three games played over a four-day span (no games tomorrow). Yes, I did play against Northern Illinois on Saturday in that trip to CS-Northridge. I was lucky enough to escape with a push (bet the game at -2), but the reality is even that was quite the fortunate result. One could reasonably conclude that the Huskies would have won that game were it not for a massive shooting disparity that saw them make only 34.1% of their FG attempts while CS-Northridge was 51.9%. Both teams actually made the same number of field goals (28), but NIU had 82 attempts to 54 for CSN! If just two of those extra 28 shots would have gone down, they would have won!

A big reason that I went against Northern Illinois in that spot was they were on the road and their opponent had revenge. Neither of those situations are present tonight. The Huskies have won 31 of their past 37 home games and are 14-1 SU (10-3 ATS) after scoring 80+ Points the previous game. In the first three games in DeKalb, they averaged 80.7 PPG. Meanwhile, Cal Poly is just 8-23 SU its L31 road games and allowed both Pepperdine and Arizona State to shoot better than 50% from the field earlier in the year. If NIU can get off anywhere near the number of shots they did at Cal-State Northridge, they'll win this one easily. 10* Northern Illinois

10* Miami (7:35 ET): Coming into the year, these were two Eastern Conference teams expected to trend in very opposite directions. Miami finished third in the conference LY w/ a 48-34 SU record, but the defection of Dwyane Wade and others (no Chris Bosh) led most reasonable minds to conclude that the Heat would tumble down the standings this year. That has pretty much played out as they stand at 4-9 entering tonight after an embarrassing loss to the 76ers on Monday. But, somewhat surprisingly, the Pistons appear to be in just as bad of shape as they've dropped four in a row entering tonight (also 0-4 ATS) and they're simply not playing as well as people expected coming off LY's 8th place finish. Take the points.

One bright spot for the Heat right now is their defense. They are one of only three teams in the league to currently be allowing fewer than one point per possession. A big key in that is Hassan Whiteside, who is averaging 14.8 points, 12.5 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per game. He had a career-high 32 points against Philadelphia, but the problem is that no one else stepped up. Quite frankly, the rest of the Heat were terrible as they combined to shoot a horrendous 21 of 69 from the floor, which is barely above 30%. One could point to the absence of Justise Winslow, but things had been going fine previous to Monday as the team had won B2B games straight up and covered four straight. Yes, there was a six-game SU losing streak to start November, but half of those losses were by three points or less.

The same can be said for Detroit, who has lost three times by three points or less in this four-game losing streak of theirs. But they're still being priced as if that streak has not occurred, which is a problem for them. I have these teams rated evenly coming into tonight, so anything over +3 is a value on Miami, especially in what figures to be a low-scoring game (Under is 7-0 in Detroit home games so far). Overall, the Pistons are just 2-7 SU and ATS their last nine games. 10* Miami

8* Minnesota (7:00 ET): I went against the Wild the last time they hit the ice, the result of which was a 3-2 loss for them (at Dallas). But if you recall my analysis for that game, a big point of emphasis was the fact that goaltender Devan Dubnyk would not be between the pipes. The Wild certainly missed him as backup Darcy Keumper gave up three goals, including the game winner in overtime. Despite the loss, Minnesota still owns the best goal differential (+11) in the Western Conference currently. Dubnyk is slated to start tonight and as a result, I'm on the Wild at home against a Winnipeg side that comes in riding a three-game losing streak. The Jets have already lost here in the Twin Cities earlier this year.

Dubnyk has been the driving force for Minnesota leading the league in both goals allowed per game (1.9) and save percentage (.938). Those are two good categories to lead the league in. Dubnyk has been somewhat ridiculous so far w/ a .948 save percentage and three shutouts. He'd given up just nine goals total in nine games before allowing in three in Saturday's home loss to Colorado (still made 34 saves). Assuming the Wild can do a better job at limiting the number of shot attempts here, they should be just fine w/ their ace in goal. In other good news, it appears as if the Wild are getting healthier. Zach Parise returned Monday after being scratched the previous game due to a sore throat. Defenseman Marco Scandella may be set to join him on the ice tonight as he's been activated of IR (ankle sprain).

These teams are currently tied w/ 20 points each, but Minnesota has played three fewer games and has - by far - the better goal differential at +11 to -4. Again, scoring differential is something I find to be a very useful predictor of future outcome, regardless of sport. Here, Winnipeg has lost three in a row, all on the road, and totaled just four goals in the process. They managed only 17 shots on goal the last time they faced Minnesota, which simply won't get it done here. This is a team that's dropped 8 of 11 on the road overall while averaging only 24.5 shots per game. Goaltender Connor Hellebuyck has a woeful .881 save percentage away from home. 8* Minnesota

8* James Madison (4:00 ET): It has not been a good start to the season for the Dukes of JMU. I should know as I played against them 10 days ago, when as a 6-point favorite, they lost outright to Rice 94-70! They're now 0-4 following losses to Montana State and Texas Southern. Therefore, it may seem curious that the oddsmakers would favor them here, but that probably speaks to how bad UL Lafayette is. The Ragin Cajuns dropped their first two games, both on the road, one at Montana State as well. They've since "bounced back" w/ B2B wins at home, but both came against non-lined opponents, OK Panhandle State and Delaware State. Monday's win over Delaware State came only by a single point. Lay the points here.

James Madison did not shoot the ball well vs. Texas Southern and that's putting it mildly. They shot only 18 of 50 (35%) overall from the floor, including a dreadful 5 of 21 from three-point range. It was their second straight bad shooting night as they were just 30.4% overall at Montana State! Ironically, their best shooting game of the young season came in their most lopsided loss, the aforementioned game against Rice. That one was at least at home, so that's something to lean on. I see the offense increasing tonight against a LA Lafayette team that has already given up 82+ points in three games this season. Meanwhile, in the Ragin Cajuns first two road games, they too were below 37% shooting.

A big issue for JMU to this point has been the status of Ramone Snowden and Vince Holmes, two key transfers that were expected to contribute immediately. However, both were quickly suspended for violating team rules. Holmes has yet to play in a game. Snowden, who comes by way of Niagara, has played in every game but is struggling to find his shot (30% FG). I look for Snowden to break out here. Winless and off a game where a comeback effort fell short, I'm expecting to see some fire from JMU here in what will be their last home game before December 20th! There's a sense of urgency in Richmond right now that the visitors will be unable to match tonight. 8* James Madison

8* Indiana (9:00 ET): This will be my second time playing against IPFW this year and the reason here will be, generally speaking, the same as the first. Unbeknownst to many, the Mastadons were the top ATS team in the country last year. That's going by percentage at least as they were 21-8 at the pay window. No team that played at least seven games LY covered at that high of a percentage (almost 75%). Therefore, I've stipulated that regression is coming for 2016-17. After IPFW covered the spread in the season opener, losing 92-83 at Arkansas (but as 15-pt dogs), I target them for a fade last Wednesday and they got hammered by Illinois State, 75-57 (getting only 6.5). I've got no problem laying points here w/ an even better team.

This is a rare early season road date, but obviously they won't be going far. It's their only scheduled "true" road game of the non-conference slate. Having won by nearly 40 pts on Saturday (against Liberty) and w/ the next game not until Sunday, the Mastadons should have the Hoosiers' full attention here. Already, IU has recorded one impressive win as they beat Kansas in the season opener, 103-99 as six-point dogs. Tom Crean typically fields an offensive juggernaut and this year appears to be no different. Through three games, the team is averaging 96.7 PPG. Yes, overtime was needed to beat Kansas, but even then the Hoosiers scored 89 pts in regulation.

One of the games IPFW failed to cover last year was against Indiana. Playing in Bloomington, they lost 90-65 as 20-pt dogs. I don't think that the linesmakers have shifted enough to represent the growing discrepancy between the two programs for this year. Indiana is now ranked #3 in the country. As mentioned earlier, they just destroyed Liberty, holding the Flames to 29.7% shooting from the floor and forcing 26 turnovers. The Hoosiers dominated the rebounding battle and shot better than 60% themselves. It may not be that dominant this go around, but it doesn't have to be. 8* Indiana

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): I'm a little surprised that this isn't a double digit spread. I have the Hawks rated among the top five teams in the league currently, alongside all "the usual suspects." (Those being the Clippers, Warriors, Spurs and Cavs). In fact, this team holds a win over the Cavaliers, in Cleveland no less. They come into tonight off B2B losses though, falling on the road to Charlotte (by four) and the Knicks (early Sunday start). The team did drop B2B games once before ... and promptly responded by blowing out a good Houston team here at home immediately after. Therefore, I don't see them having trouble w/ the Pelicans. Considering New Orleans was a seven-point dog at Orlando last week, this price looks like a real bargain by comparison. Lay the points.

Since opening 0-8 SU, New Orleans has won four of its last six games. But this team is still "Anthony Davis and little else." Now the return of PG Jrue Holliday has been big as they are 2-0 SU since his return (was tending to his ill wife). Yes, the Pelicans just beat the same Charlotte team that handed Atlanta a loss. But there's a few things that should be pointed out there. One is that the Pellies got them at home in the second night of a back to back (Hornets had just beaten Atlanta the previous night). It was an overtime game as well where NO had to rally from an 11-pt deficit heading into the 4Q. When the Hawks lost to the Hornets the previous night, Dwight Howard was ejected in the 4Q. 

Dennis Schroeder flat out stunk Sunday in New York, going 0 for 8 from the field. Improvement is a guarantee tonight. Also, the Hawks will welcome key reserve Thabo Sefolosha back to the lineup tonight (missed L3 games). It is important to note that Atlanta is now #1 in the league in defensive efficiency (.96 points per possession) and will be facing a New Orleans offense which ranks 25th. Despite the cities close proximity, this is the first meeting in over a year between these two teams. Atlanta swept last year and was a 13-pt favorite when they hosted. They are 6-1 ATS at home so far this year while New Orleans is 12-26 ATS off its L38 SU dog victories. 10* Atlanta

8* Florida (7:35 ET): Philadelphia has a major problem and it is in goal as they have - by far - the worst overall save percentage in the league at .873. Not surprisingly, that has translated into the highest number of goals allowed per game (3.42) as well. They also failed to score their last time out, losing 3-0 to Tampa Bay. Even w/ two days off, I don't see them turning things around here in the Sunshine State against LY's Atlantic Division winners. Florida has won B2B games and four of five overall. The home team won all three head to head meetings last season w/ the Panthers scoring a total of 12 goals in their two home wins. I expect more of the same Tuesday night.

The Flyers are likely to start Steve Mason in this spot. While he's been slightly better of late, his overall save percentage this year remains a poor .886. It's not like the team gives up a ton of shots per game; the goaltending has just been that bad. Especially on the road where they give up 4.0 goals per game. There's even a chance rookie Anthony Stolarz could get called into duty here. Regardless of whom is between the pipes tonight, the play stands. By the way, Philly's penalty killing unit is hardly any help either; they rank just 27th in the league at 78.2%. The power play has struggled of late as well (0 for last 10) and a number of injuries have left this to be a pretty young team all-around. The Flyers have lost three straight in Miami.

Goaltending has not been an issue for Florida, at least when Roberto Luongo is between the pipes. He has a .947 save percentage his L4 games, all wins, and got a reprieve Sunday w/ James Reimer actually leading the team to a 3-2 victory over the Rangers. There's plenty of reason to be excited about the Panthers right now. They are ahead of LY's pace when they won the division. They just complete a 3-1 road trip where they beat both Eastern Conference division leaders, Montreal and the Rangers. This does not look like a good spot for the Flyers, who are 10-38 in road games when the total is 5.5 plus they are 13-26 SU when taking the ice w/ exactly two days rest. 8* Florida

10* Over Blues/Bruins (7:05 ET): St. Louis arrives in Beantown riding a three-game win streak, but there are certainly holes that can poked in their resume despite their 23 points currently placing them second in the always tough Central Division. For starters, all three wins came at home. On the road, the Blues have struggled this season, losing six of eight outside the Gateway City. The primary issue has been poor goaltending. Already w/ a save percentage of just .900 to begin with (all games), that number drops all the way down to .842 on the road, which is just awful. They actually do a good job of limiting shots (just 26.8 per game), but the problem is neither Jake Allen nor Carter Hutton can stop them. Though Brian Elliott is now struggling in Calgary, the Blues still miss him w/o question.

Boston is having no such issues between the pipes, particularly of late. Over the L5 games, they've allowed an average of just 1.0 gpg on a minuscule 22.0 shots per game. The save percentage during this time is .955, which will be very difficult to maintain moving forward. Not surprisingly, we find that Tuukka Rask was the one in net for all five of those games. He's very likely to get the starting nod again here. The Bruins only loss over these L5 games came in 1-0 fashion to Minnesota. Only one of the previous seven games have seen at least five total goals scored, but considering the way they just dominated Winnipeg last time out (38-12 edge in shots) in a 4-1 win, I see their offense lighting the lamp a few times tonight against the struggling Allen.

The last time these teams faced off (April), the Bruins won 6-5 chasing Elliott out of the game. Rask struggled as well, letting in five goals on just 30 shots. Neither team has had much difficulty getting the puck on net recently w/ St. Louis averaging 30.2 shots per game their L5 (3.0 goals per game) and Boston averaging 34.0 (2.6 gpg). If anything, we're due to see both teams' respective shooting percentages RISE moving forward. Boston is third in the league overall in # of shots per game while the Over is 13-7 for them the L3 seasons when off three or more consecutive Unders. 10* Over Blues/Bruins

10* Dallas (8:35 ET): Given Minnesota has outscored its opponents by 12 goals this year (2nd best differential in the Western Conference!), they are probably a bit better than their overall record of 9-7-1 shows. They, in fact, have the same point total (19) as tonight's opponent, Dallas, who has a -14 goal differential for the year. But despite what that key metric may seem to indicate, I'm backing the Stars on home ice tonight as they too are looking to bounce back from a home loss Saturday night. While the Wild lost to Colorado, 3-2, last year's Central Division leaders fell 5-2 to Edmonton. It hasn't been a great start for the Stars, but I see them getting the job done tonight. 

This is a revenge spot for Dallas as early in the year, they fell 4-0 at Minnesota despite allowing just 15 shots for the game! Devan Dubnyk turned in a 29-save shutout for the Wild, but it appears as if he won't be the one between the pipes Monday as Darcy Keumper is your likely starter instead. While Dubnyk has turned in a somewhat otherworldly .948 save percentage to this point, Keumper is at a more pedestrian .908. That's a significant drop and a major reason why I'm fading the Wild in this spot. They are also just 9-25 their past 34 trips to Dallas.

The Stars, meanwhile, will have their better option in goal tonight. That's Antii Niemi, who has posted a .932 save percentage at home this season. This is a rare spot where Dallas is likely to have the goaltending edge over Minnesota. I also can't see the Stars dropping B2B home games. This is their fourth straight game in Dallas and while they're just 1-2 SU so far, the team is 16-7 SU the L3 seasons when coming off three consecutive home games. 10* Dallas

full analysis soon

8* Under Warriors/Pacers (7:05 ET): Golden State comes off its seventh straight victory Saturday night, but failed to cover at Milwaukee, winning 124-121 as nine-point favorites. Shockingly, it was the third time in the past four games that they'd allowed 120 or more points and not one of those games went past regulation. Meanwhile, Indiana is off an overtime affair, as they won in Oklahoma City last night 115-111. It was their fourth OT game already this season. The score at the end of regulation was 103-103, so Over bettors needed the extra five minutes there. With the Pacers coming in as big underdogs tonight, that luxury probably cannot be relied upon and with a huge O/U line, I'm going Under in this one.

Both teams are used to seeing high totals this year. The average O/U line for a Golden State game this year has been 222 and the Over is still 8-5. For Indiana, the average O/U line has been 211.5 and the Over is 8-6, but half of those Overs have come in games that went to OT. These teams met twice last year and the Over hit both times, but the number is now a few points higher tonight. That's despite the fact Indiana will be short-handed this evening. Both Paul George and CJ Miles will again be MIA and while the team was able to win in OKC w/o them last night, I don't see Jeff Teague going for 30 pts again here. By the way, the Under is 10-2 for Golden State when they're a road favorite of -12.5 or higher.

As expected, Golden State has had no problems on the offensive end of the floor where they are #1 in efficiency, points per game and field goal percentage. Kevin Durant has scored 30+ five different times this season and he, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are all averaging at least 20 PPG for the season. But this team has been really good defensively each of the L2 years and I'd be a little concerned about the regression we've seen thus far at that end of the court. That said, I don't see Indiana shooting as well as Milwaukee did Saturday night and I can point to the fact the Warriors just held Boston to only 88 pts on Friday as a sign they can still get it done defensively. 8* Under Warriors/Pacers

8* Ohio State (7:00 ET): The Buckeyes are 3-0 SU, but have yet to cover the spread a single time (0-3 ATS). Wins over Navy, NC Central and Providence have all been by 10 pts or less. Therefore, on the surface, it may not seem like a good idea to lay this monster number tonight as Western Carolina pays a visit. But the Catamounts are prime material to get routed seeing as they've already fallen by more than this spread twice this season and this will be their second road game in three days. The first resulted in a 35-point loss at Marshall (were +16 there). They've also lost at Miami FL by 49, in the season opener (were +22.5 there). Lay the points.

This game is a part of the non-bracketed, Global Sports Invitational. The two sides have already played one common opponent, that being NC Central. While the Buckeyes certainly could have been a lot more impressive against the Eagles, they still won 69-63 here in Columbus, last Monday (were -24). Meanwhile, Western Carolina lost to them at home, 67-59, in a non-lined affair. "I didn't like a whole lot of what I saw tonight," Ohio State coach Thad Matta said in reference to his team's win over NC Central. Matta would go on to say, "We weren't physically and mentally very tough. Obviously, we have to get that corrected." Fortunately for Matta, his team looked a lot better in Thursday's 72-67 win over Providence, though the MOV was no greater. But OSU did dominate in terms of shooting the basketball, 50 percent to 35.4.

Western Carolina scored only 59 pts against NC Central and has been even more inept offensively on the road, scoring just 53 PPG in road losses to Miami and Marshall. Even worse, they've shot below 30 percent in those two losses. I just don't see the issues being corrected here. The Buckeyes have been one of the more dominant home teams in the country under Matta, posting the most home wins of any D-I team at home since 2007-08 w/ 124. JaQuan Lyle had a monster game vs. Providence, registering 21 pts, eight rebounds and seven assists. 8* Ohio State

10* Georgia (7:00 ET): This game takes place in Kansas City, Missouri and is a semifinal matchup in the CBE Hall of Fame Classic. After losing the season opener, 74-64 at Clemson, the Bulldogs have bounced back to post B2B victories in this event, beating UNC-Asheville and Furman. While both games were closer than the 'Dawgs would have liked, I'm still impressed enough by what I saw. Remember that this is a program that has won 20+ games each of the L3 seasons under HC Mark Fox. As for George Washington, they arrive in KC at 3-0 SU, but were hardly impressive in narrow wins over MD-Eastern Shore or Siena (both decided by four points or less). In their last game, the Colonials were fortunate that Ark Pine Bluff shot a woeful 26.7% from the floor (GW was at 35.6%).

It was a different kind of game last time out for UGA as they had to deal w/ Furman shooting the ball at a 50% clip on Thursday. What kept the Paladins in the game was a 10 of 21 mark from three-point range (UGA was just 5 of 18). But while the 'Dawgs may have struggled from distance, they dominated on the interior, going 23 of 35 on two-point attempts. Yante Maten and JJ Frazier again carried the scoring load w/ a combined 55 points. Over the L3 seasons, this team is 9-4 ATS coming off a game where it scored 80+ points. Also of interest is they don't get upset much; their SU record when priced as the favorite is an impressive 31-6 SU.

George Washington won the NIT last year, but has far less experience on this year's squad w/ eight underclassmen suiting up. Contrast that w/ Georgia, who figures to be a threat in the better SEC. Again, GW struggled to get by MD-Eastern Shore in its opener (despite a massive +20 edge in attempts at the FT line) and then was back and forth virtually the whole way w/ Siena at home last Tuesday. The Colonials won't have the same edges on the interior here as they did against the Saints, nor will Georgia shoot the ball as poorly as Arkansas Pine Bluff did on Thursday. Neither team has shot the ball particularly well from three-point range, but I'll point to the fact that Georgia has more overall talent and GW is just 2-8 ATS its L10 games vs. the SEC. 10* Georgia

8* Long Beach State (10:00 ET): UCLA is 3-0 and played three home games against overmatched foes. Not surprisingly, Pacific, CS-Northridge and San Diego all fell by the wayside by double digit margins. Tonight, they host a Long Beach State team whose record is unfair as they've certainly been unafraid to step up and take on strong competition. That's been the hallmark under Dan Monson, but this year has taken things to a whole new level. The 49ers have played Wichita State, North Carolina and Louisville in the L3 games and due to some uncharacteristically poor shooting, all three went really poorly. But I look for a bounce back here and I'm taking the points.

Playing a fourth straight top foe on the road and third ranked opponent in less than five days seems like a really tough spot. But Monson should have his team ready. They've shot just 31.2%, 36.4% and 29.5% those L3 games and I cannot state enough how they're almost certain to top those percentages tonight. UCLA is allowed 80 and 87 pts its first two games. Also, bad defense has hurt the 49ers. Both Wichita State and North Carolina shot better than 55% against them. Again, those numbers are a virtual lock to come down. This perennial Big West power is better than its shown thus far and is due for a competitive game. They've played UCLA tough each of the last two years, losing by only 7 and 14 pts.

While UCLA is getting at least 14 PPG from five different players, they will not be able to keep that up. Four players on the roster are dealing w/ injuries right now. It should be pointed out that they failed to cover against both CS-Northridge and San Diego. In games with high totals such as this, these teams have experienced very different results. If the total is 160 to 169.5, UCLA is 0-8 ATS the L3 seasons. Meanwhile, LBSU is 11-2 ATS L13, 5-0 if away from home. They are also 10-4 ATS after allowing 80+ points the previous game. This is a bounce back spot for the underdog and a great spot to fade an overvalued favorite. 8* Long Beach State

8* Utah (9:05 ET): Both of these Northwest Division teams are pretty banged up right now. Utah, a popular pick to break through into the upper echelon of the Western Conference this year, started in kind at 6-2 straight up. They are now 7-7 SU. They've lost three straight, the first two as favorites. But then yday, even getting 6.5, they could not cover in what ended up being a 111-102 loss to Houston. But I thought there was some positive takeaways. Other than Gordon Hayward, the other four Jazz starters had a combined seven years of NBA experience. Yet the team actually shot better than 50% from the floor. Really, the box score shows an even matchup except for the 14-5 disadvantage Utah faced in turnovers.

Denver has covered its last three games. But they have just one SU win in their last six. They come in off a OT loss here at home to Toronto, 113-111. After falling behind early (trailed by 10 after 1Q), the Nuggets rallied to take a five point lead by halftime. From there, it was a close game throughout. But even though the Raptors shot only 61% from the FT line and 45.7% from the floor, Denver could not get the job done. Part of the problem is that they were a horrendous 4 of 25 from three-point range. Another issue is that they are really thin in the backcourt right now. Both Gary Harris and Will Barton are out and HC Michael Malone has been tinkering w/ his starting lineup. This team's only SU win over the L6 games came at Phoenix's expense.

Denver is just 1-4 SU at home this year. I believe Utah is being undervalued here due to the back to back situation. Note Saturday's game was played a little earlier than normal, so this B2B may not be as tough as some others. By the way, the Jazz are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS playing in the second game of a back to back this year! They are also 5-1 ATS playing against a team w/ a losing record. In terms of efficiency, there is no denying which team has been better and even the Nuggets' home court edge shouldn't make them a favorite here. Utah is allowing only 94.4 PPG so far (#1 in the league!) while Denver is allowing 108.3 (bottom 7). The Jazz are 6-2 SU and ATS the L8 head to head meetings including a 4-0 SU sweep LY. 8* Utah

10* Green Bay (8:25 ET): Aaron Rogers and the Packers appear to be declining at a frightening rate and rumors about the QB's personal life don't seem like they'll help matters. But I can't help but think back to LY's Wild Card Game between the Pack and the Redskins. Green Bay came to FedEx Field as a short underdog and dominated an overmatched Washington team, 35-18. I see the exact same scenario playing out Sunday night. If Mike McCarthy doesn't have his team ready to go coming off LW's embarrassing 47-25 loss at Tennessee, then maybe it is time for a total re-evaluation. Meanwhile, I'm still unsold on the 'Skins even though they won their division last year and come in at 5-3-1 SU. Take the points.

Over the L3 seasons, Washington is 3-8 ATS including 1-5 when laying three or less at home. That one cover came LW in a back and forth game over slumping Minnesota, 26-20 laying 2.5. That result actually did GB a major favor all things considered (keeps them only one game off a division lead). But note the Redskins were coming off a bye last week, giving them a bit of an advantage. No such edge exists here. Like so many teams in this league, Washington's record is a byproduct of fortune in close games. The only team they've beaten by more than a touchdown is the Browns and even that game was close in the fourth quarter. People forget, but the team was 0-2 SU at one point and headed to New York as a sizable dog against the Giants. I took them in what ended up being an outright win there and they're now 5-1-1 SU/6-1 ATS L7 games. Now I view them as fade material. It was four second half field goals that won the game for them last week as the offense failed to get into the end zone after halftime.

Contrary to popular belief, the Green Bay offense hasn't been terrible of late. They've averaged 27.7 PPG the L3 games, despite losing all of them. The defense was terrible last week, but I don't see the Washington passing attack exploiting them the same way Tennessee did. For the record, a -3 turnover margin really hurt the Pack last week. This will be just the second time all season that Rodgers and company have been a dog. They covered the first, at Atlanta. They are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS L7 meetings w/ the Redskins.  10* Green Bay

10* Ole Miss (6:00 ET): Going against St. Joe's didn't prove to be fruitful on Friday afternoon, but I'm going back to the well here on Sunday. The Hawks covered more games (24) than any other team in the country last year, but have lost a lot of talent since then. There's also the simple "law of averages" at play here, which says they simply won't be as profitable here in 2016-17. But after failing to cover the season opener (won by 1 over Toledo), I give them credit for posting double digit wins over Columbia and Loyola Chicago. But now it's time for what is clearly the stiffest test yet, that being a date w/ fellow 3-0 team Ole Miss. I like the Rebels to come through Sunday evening in the Virgin Islands.

While Mississippi is 3-0 SU, they are also 0-3 ATS. All three wins thus far have been by seven points or less. That largest MOV of 7 pts also happened to come in an overtime game, their last time out, against Oral Roberts. So because of all the close calls, we're now getting a better than expected value. Note that the Rebels still average 90.3 points per game! Obviously then, you'd like to see them tighten the defense up. But when you have Miami (FL) transfer DeAndre Burnett pouring in 41 pts (like he did vs. Oral Roberts, who needs defense? Also, it's not like Andy Kennedy's team is playing that bad of defense, they just play at a fast pace. No opponent has shot better than 47.7%, at least overall.  Oral Roberts was able to stay in the game by shooting a somewhat ridiculous 11 of 19 from the three-point line and 15 of 16 from the FT line. 

St. Joe's shot 55.2% against Columbia, but other than that they haven't been so hot from the floor. They really benefited from Loyola only getting to the free throw line 12 times on Friday and missing 21 of 27 three-point attempts. Their two best players from last year - DeAndre Bembry and Isaiah Miles - both departed. One returning player (Pierfrancesco Oliva) is already out for the year and another - James Demery - is dealing with a foot injury and will be out 2-3 weeks. I'm not coming off what I said two days ago and that's St. Joe's is fade material right now. 10* Ole Miss

8* Philadelphia (4:25 ET): I was as shocked as any when the Eagles started the year 3-0 (though in retrospect, two wins came against Cleveland and Chicago) and as unsurprised as any when they came crashing back down to Earth by losing four of their next five. But let's give the team some "due" for beating a hot Atlanta team last week, 24-15, even if it was at home. Some will point to the fact they (Philly) are just 1-4 SU/ATS on the road this year and set to visit the most hostile venue in the league. But w/ a defense that has played every bit as good as Seattle's (yes, you read that correctly!), they absolutely can - and should - stay in this one throughout, if not pull off the "unthinkable" - that being an outright win. Take the points. 

Also of note is that this line was set to open at Seattle -4.5. But that was before the Seahawks upset the Patriots, a result that I was on the right side of, thank you very much! Anticipating an onslaught of Seattle money here, the oddsmakers had no choice but to bump up the number. One has to think what would the reaction of been had the Seahawks defense not held New England out of the end zone at the end of the game Sunday night. This is a really tough spot for Russell Wilson and company as they have to fly back cross country after a heavily hyped primetime affair and lay points to a possible playoff contender. There have been only two teams all year that Seattle has beaten by more than seven points. Those are San Francisco and the Jets, both of whom are bottom five teams in the league.

Meanwhile, the Eagles actually sport the league's third best point differential. I use that metric as a guide to predict future performance as I find it to be far more reliable than a team's actual won-loss record. Because all four losses have come by a TD or less and all five wins have been by at least nine points, we find Philly +66 in points for vs. against right now. Only Dallas and New England are better (Seahawks "only" +35). Seattle's offensive line and running game (certainly connected) turned in its best game of the year last week, but I'm not sure that gets repeated against an Eagles defense which permits only 101 YPG over land and just held the top offense in the league (Atlanta) to only 303 yds total last week . 8* Philadelphia

10* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Here we find the oddsmakers asking something of the Lions that they have not done all season. That is win a game by at least seven points! Sure Detroit is 5-4 SU and currently sitting atop the NFC North by virtue of their largest win of the season, 22-16 over the Vikings two weeks ago as 4.5-pt underdogs. But how ironic that the Lions' largest win of the season was an overtime game? Somewhat incredibly, all five of the teams wins have come about as a result of fourth quarter comebacks. They've also benefited by committing only six turnovers. Interestingly, enough the defense has forced only seven. I'm just not ready to get on board w/ this team quite yet, particularly in this price range. As favorites, Detroit is only 0-2-1 ATS this year including outright losses to both Tennessee and Chicago.

Jacksonville, on the other hand, has consistently been on the wrong end of close games. They are 2-7 straight up, but four of those losses have been by five points or less. Two of the most painful have come over the L2 weeks. The defense held both Kansas City and Houston under 300 total yards of offense, yet both times the Jags came up short on the scoreboard. I had them plus the points against the Chiefs two weeks ago and thankfully they did cover there (as 7-pt dogs). Comparing spreads for a minute, there's no way the Lions deserve to be favored by as many as points as the 7-2 Chiefs. Last week saw Jacksonville curiously bet to the role of favoritism against rested Houston (something I disagreed with) and they lost that one 24-21. Turnovers have doomed the Jags in these last two losses as they are -6 in that department.

What we're looking at here is a Jaguars team that's probably better than its record and a Lions team that is certainly not as good as its record. Using a stock analogy, it's time to "sell high" on the Motor City. Detroit has actually been outscored on the season. I handicap this game the same way I did the JAX-KC matchup and the Jags not only covered in Arrowhead, they probably should have won outright as they outgained the Chiefs 449-231! Jacksonville has now covered four of the last six times it has been a road dog of +3.5 to +7. 10* Jacksonville

10* Baltimore (1:00 ET): Following last week's wild 35-30 win over Pittsburgh and New England's subsequent loss to Seattle, I now have the Cowboys ranked as the #1 team in the league. Let that sink in for a little bit. They have a rookie QB and a rookie RB and there's a strong likelihood that Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott finish 1-2 in the Rookie of the Year voting (actually more like 2-1, Elliott is your likely winner). America's Team has covered the spread in every game since their Week 1 loss to the Giants. However ... it's not like they've been blowing teams out. Other than Cleveland (who is the worst team in the league), no win this season has come by a margin greater than two touchdowns. Half have been by a TD or less. This being their largest spread of the season, I think we may finally have reached our "tipping point" w/ Dallas this week and I'll fade them.

In fact, there have only been three times all season where the Cowboys have been favored by more than ONE point. I already referenced the game at Cleveland. The other two were vs. Chicago and Philadelphia, both Sunday Night games coincidentally. The fact that the 'Boys are now favored by more to beat the Ravens than they were the lowly Bears shows how off the pricing was for them and Chicago at the start of the year. It also shows value to me on Baltimore here. Also, you'll note that they only covered against the Eagles due to overtime as they took the opening possession and scored a touchdown. Yes, you have to give Dallas credit for winning these games, but LW's high-profile win has brought the weight of expectations, something they may not be ready to meet, at least at this price. Also, this team is just 7-13 ATS in Jerry World the L3 seasons.

Baltimore is a team that, win or lose, almost always plays close games. They've actually been favored in more games this year than have the Cowboys (6 of 9)! In fact, there hasn't been a single time this year that the Ravens have been getting more than 3.5 pts from the oddsmakers. So you can see how far the market has shifted here towards Dallas despite the fact the Ravens have won B2B games and have had extra time to prepare following a 28-7 cakewalk two Thursdays ago against Cleveland. The Ravens also have the best defense in the league in terms of yards allowed and are top five in scoring. Since the start of last season, this team has played all of three games that weren't decided by one possessions. Two (both losses) were last year w/o Joe Flacco. The other was the aforementioned game LW vs. the Browns. Take the points here. 10* Baltimore

6* Washington (12:35 ET): Both teams are 7-2-1 their L10 games and Columbus has the better YTD goal differential. Yet the Capitals come in as decided favorites for Sunday, which should tell you all you need to know about where the marketplace values these Metro teams. That valuation comes in the face of the Blue Jackets even beating the Caps, 2-1, in Columbus earlier this week. But Washington has since won B2B games at home in very impressive fashion and these early start times typically favor the home side. I'll lay the juice. 

The night after losing to Columbus, Washington returned home and destroyed Pittsburgh, 7-1. They followed that w/ a shutout of Detroit (1-0) on Friday. Obviously, a win like the one they had over the Penguins will greatly skew the numbers this early in the season, but the fact remains the Caps have been really impressive on home ice. They're 6-2 SU here in the Nation's Capital and the most impressive part of that is them holding opponents to an average of just 23.9 shots per game. Throw in the fact that Braden Holtby has a .930 save percentage both overall and at home and you can expect the Caps not to concede many goals here. 

Columbus isn't averaging many shots per game, particularly on the road (24.5). Of late, those shot numbers have declined even further (23.2). That simply won't get it done. For the year, this team ranks DEAD LAST in the league in shots per game. Opposing goaltenders will not continue to post a woeful an .873 save percentage against the Blue Jackets. Also, over the last five games, opposing goaltenders have posted an almost unheard of .837 save percentage! That number is all but assured to go up w/ Holtby between the pipes here. Columbus actually outshot Washington 27-22 Tuesday, but as we've established, the Caps will put more pressure on goalie Sergei Bobrovsky here in D.C.. Bobrovsky only has an .884 save percentage his L4 starts. Washington is 3-1 this season after being held to one goal or less their previous game. 6* Washington

8* CS Northridge (11:00 ET): Both Northern Illinois and CS-Northridge have played three games. The former is 3-0 while the latter is 1-2. But as is so often the case, records can be misleading. Northern Illinois has yet to leave DeKalb and has played three very weak opponents (Indiana St, Roosevelt, Idaho). Meanwhile, CS-Northridge comes off road dates vs. UCLA and Stanford, neither of which you'd expect them to win (were double digit dogs both times out). Here though, the Matadors are a slight favorite at home and I think a great value. NIU hasn't shot well in either of its two wins over D-I teams. This is also a revenge spot for CSN. Lay the points. 

Last year, in DeKalb, Northern Illinois beat CS Northridge 83-71 as 9.5-pt dogs. We touched on NIU's relatively poor shooting this year, but let's revisit the shooting numbers from this matchup last year, shall we? The Mastadons actually outshot the Huskies from the floor (47.3% to 44.4%), but three-pointers were huge as were free throws for the eventual winner. NIU was 11-24 from behind the arc while CSN was 4-12. Meanwhile, from the charity stripe, CSN actually missed more than they made and they had 31 attempts. Talk about a lot of missed opportunities in a game lost by single digits. For the record, NIU was 24 of 34 on its free throw attempts.

True road games have seen Northern Illinois go just 7-21 SU the previous two seasons (2-8 ATS L10). They are also 9-23 SU as an underdog the L2 years. The 14-point win over Idaho on Wednesday was a bit misleading in the sense that the game was tied at halftime and the Vandals shot only 32% from the floor. Also, NIU had a massive 25-9 edge at the free throw line. This is a good spot for the host Matadors to get back on track. 8* CS Northridge

10* UCLA (10:30 ET):  At the start of the season, most would have thought this would be the game to decide the Pac 12 South. Instead, the most historical rivalry game out West (I think that's fair to say, right?) is relegated to mere afterthought. Granted, USC is still a player as the Trojans are 6-2 SU in conference play after picking their most impressive win of the season, last week, at Washington's expense. But UCLA, even though they too won last week, has taken a rather dramatic fall in year #5 under HC Jim Mora as they are 2-5 SU vs. the rest of the conference and just 4-6 SU overall. But, to me, this has created a situation where there's a ton of value on the home underdog here. This being a rivalry game, the Bruins should still be highly motivated, especially considering winning out means a bowl game. Take the points.

Last year, UCLA returned every starter on the offensive side of the ball, expect at the most important position of all. Fortunately, Josh Rosen was able to step in as a freshman and help guide the team to an 8-5 SU season. This year, the offense returned Rosen, but little else. A complete inability to run the ball (only 87 YPG!) and the injury to Rosen has really derailed them. But, last week we saw them run for 163 yds (2nd most in a game this year) in a 38-24 win over Oregon State. QB Mike Fafaul threw for 281 yards. Of note here is that while the Bruins may be 2-5 SU in conference play, they've scored just as many points as they've allowed (192). Their five losses have all been by 10 pts or less. They were actually favored in two of the five losses, but are also 2-0 ATS as DD dogs. Don't forget the Stanford debacle either. Aside from the Utah game, Mora's defense hasn't been terrible either (25.8 PPG allowed).

When this line was first released over the summer, it was expected that UCLA would be about a 2.5-point favorite. My, how times have changed. I faded USC in their season opener, vs. Alabama, when they lost 52-6. The team actually stood at 1-3 SU, but give Clay Helton credit for righting the ship as the Trojans have looked impressive in rattling off six straight wins. In particular, last week's performance vs. Washington stands out. But it also makes them more prone to a letdown and I wouldn't be surprised if the Trojans players are actually looking past this game to Notre Dame next week! That won't be the case though for UCLA, who lost LY's game 40-21 (+3) and is trying to be bowl eligible. Revenge! 10* UCLA