10* Nashville (8:35 ET): The Predators became the latest NHL team to make a coaching change as they fired Peter Laviolette on Monday and replaced him with John Hynes. Unfortunately the team was unable to win Hynes' debut, but that game was against the Bruins, one of the best teams in the league. I thought the Preds competed well in that game and tonight they should turn things around against Chicago, a last place team that has been beseiged by injuries all season long.

The Blackhawks are the only team currently below Nashville in the Central Division standings. They had a chance to pass them Tuesday, but they too lost, 2-1 at home to Calgary. That performance came on the heels of a five game stretch where the club tallied four or more goals four separate times. But that's not something I expect to continue as Chicago ranks towards the bottom of the league, averaging just 2.9 goals per game. 

While these teams have split a pair of meetings in Nashville this year, those games have seen the Predators outshoot the Blackhawks 92-44! Coaching changes typically lead to short-term improvement and that's what I expect from the Preds, who have a better YTD goal differential than Chicago. Scoring is not a problem for Nashville, even on the road as they average 3.6 goals per game. That's the second highest average in the league for road games. 10* Nashville

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): The NBA's Western Conference features seven teams that are at least five games over .500. All seven should feel pretty safe when it comes to making the playoffs. As for who gets the 8th spot, that's anybody's guess at this point. You would think that a Portland team that made the Conference Finals a season ago would certainly be among that top seven, but they are not. Even after winning on Tuesday, the Blazers are still six games below .500 on the year.

Minnesota is right behind them at 14-22, two back in the win column. The T'wolves had been playing better lately, winning three of four, but that was before running into Memphis on Tuesday and losing 119-112 as a 4.5-point dog. The strangest thing about this T'wolves season is how poorly they've played here at home. They are only 5-11 SU at the Target Center and scoring less than they do on the road. Of course, it hasn't helped that Karl-Anthony Towns has missed so much time. 

Still, even without Towns, the T'wolves were up eight with just eight minutes to go at Memphis Tuesday night. It was the exact opposite for Portland, who led Toronto for all of 18 seconds Tuesday, yet came out ahead 101-99. Let's use those misleading results to our advantage here as the Blazers should NOT be favored on the road here. Prior to sneaking by the Raptors, Portland had gone 1-6 SU/ATS its L7 games, the lone win coming against a bad (and banged up)Washington team. The Blazers have a losing road record (8-13 SU to boot). 10* Minnesota

8* Florida (7:05 ET): Vancouver's season-best seven-game win streak came to an ugly end on Tuesday as they were clobbered 9-2 by Tampa Bay. While that was just "one game," it's also the start of what will be a five-game road-trip for the Canucks and this team has simply not played well away from home all season. The disturbing trend sees them allowing 3.5 goals per game while seeing their own scoring average dip to 2.9 gpg. Only one of those seven straight victories came on the road and I don't see them winning tonight in Miami. 

Florida could really use a win as it looks like they may be relegated to nothing more than a Wild Card team at best. Currently, they are three points out of the top eight in the Eastern Conference. They are 4th in the Atlantic with 49 points, but they just don't compare favorably to any of the top three teams (Boston, Tampa Bay, Toronto). They'll host the Maple Leafs on Sunday, but before that they'll need to bounce back from a 5-2 loss here at home to Arizona their last time out. The good news is the Panthers are 13-8 SU this season after allowing 4+ goals. 

This play boils down to the simple concept of home ice advantage. I already touched upon Vancouver's road woes this season. Well, Florida sees its scoring average rise to 3.7 gpg here at home, which is 4th most in the league. The Canucks' goal differential on the road, not surprisingly, is bottom 10 in the league. There have been six instances this NHL season of a team scoring six goals in a period. Two of those have come against Vancouver, both of them road games! This is also a revenge game for the Panthers, who lost 7-2 up in Vancouver in October. Again, it'll be a much different story with the home ice flipped. 8* Florida

8* Drexel (6:00 ET): A bit of an early start time in the Colonial as two teams looking to build off wins meet. Drexel, who is the underdog, has actually won two straight and is 4-1 its last 5 games overall. Meanwhile, Towson snapped a three-game losing streak by beating UNC Wilmington on the road Saturday. A pretty compelling case could be made that UNC Wilmington is the weakest team in the CAA this year, so I'm not about to change my view here on the hosts, who are laying too many points. 

Drexel won its last game as an underdog, beating Delaware 61-55. Now that was at home. But it was also last Friday, meaning they've had one additional day to prepare for this game, compared to Towson. The Dragons are 5-1 ATS the past three seasons when having five or six days to prepare. Admittedly, "true" road games have not gone all that well for them so far, but they were able to stick within five at both Temple & Rutgers. That's good enough for me. 

Towson isn't Temple or Rutgers. They, like Drexel, are just a middle of the road CAA team. The Tigers are just 1-5 ATS vs. teams with winning records and Drexel does come in at 9-7 SU overall. Towson is just 7-9 SU including only 3-3 here at home. It was actually just a one-point game in the final minute against UNC Wilmington on Saturday. The Tigers have not won a game by more than seven points since December 4th. They are hardly an ideal candidate to take as a favorite. 8* Drexel

8* Wyoming (9:00 ET): There are just two teams left without a loss and both are in action Wednesday night. But while #5 Auburn (13-0) gets to play at home, #7 San Diego State (15-0) has to travel to Laramie to face Wyoming and lay a big number to boot. I won't sit here and tell you Wyoming is a great team because they certainly aren't. But Laramie is a tough place to play and you can obviously expect the home team to play inspired basketball tonight. Take the points.

Another reason to fade SDSU here is that they are off one of their biggest wins of the season, 77-68 at Utah State, who figures to be the Aztecs' closest competition this year in the Mountain West. That was Saturday and now the Aztecs are hitting the road again. This is the first time all year that they will play B2B "true" road games. They've covered the previous four road games and are also 2-0 SU at neutral sites, but I have to say that - overall - the schedule has not been that challenging for SDSU.

Wyoming's 2020 has started with consecutive losses, but both came on the road. This is a team that may only be 2-8 SU its last 10 games, with one of those wins coming in OT and the other against a non-DI team. But I don't see them being blown out on their home floor this evening. This a really tough set of B2B road games for SDSU with both played at high elevation. Nathan Mensah (respiratory issue) may again have to sit for them. 8* Wyoming

10* Dallas (7:35 ET): It's a very thin line between second and sixth place in the NBA's Western Conference right now, which is where these teams are respectively. Though Denver may be higher in the standings, I've got Dallas rated as the better team as they've posted both a better YTD point differential (+7.4 vs. +4.0) and a better net efficiency rating (+6.8 vs. +2.9). Both of those numbers indicate that tonight's spread should be at least several points higher and I agree, so lay the short number with the Mavericks. 

Both in terms of point differential and net efficiency rating, the Mavs rank 4th best in the entire league. So how are they only in 6th place in their own conference? That's a good question. Going 0-3 in OT games is part of it, plus it's been a pretty pedestrian stretch the last month with the team going just 7-7 SU its L14 games and winning B2B times only once. But I expect them to start to go on a run now. Certainly the numbers indicate they will. Luka Doncic is off yet another big game Monday as the Mavs beat Chicago 118-110 here at home. 

While Dallas gets a six-game homestand to start 2020, Denver is wrapping up a five-game road trip tonight. It's been an "up and down" trip so far as they're 2-2 SU with a loss to the lowly Wizards. They bounced back from that Monday against Atlanta, but this is a tough spot for the Nuggets as they may not have much left in the tank playing a fifth road game in nine days. Defense hasn't been great of late and no team averages more points per possession than Dallas does. The Nuggets have surrendered at least 115 points in five straight games. Back in October, the Mavs went to Denver and won 109-106. 10* Dallas

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Raptors are definitely banged up right now, but they should have won last night's home game vs. Portland. They led for all but 18 seconds yet a Carmelo Anthony GW jumper resulted in a 101-99 loss as 2.5-pt favorites. Tonight, the reigning NBA Champs take their act to Charlotte to face a Hornets team they crushed earlier in the year by 36 points. While that was when they were closer to full strength, I'm still expecting a win here. Lay a number that's far too short. 

At 15-24 SU on the year, no one is going to make the claim that Charlotte is a good team. But the reality is they're actually pretty bad. They've been outscored by 6.6 points per game so far and have a net efficiency rating of -6.1, both of which place them among the bottom five teams in the league! Even in an Eastern Conference that has the three worst teams in the league (NY, Cleveland & Atlanta), the Hornets should be further down the standings. They lost by 11 at home to an undermanned Indiana side Monday night, dropping them to 2-13 SU vs. .500 or better teams this season. 

The Raptors are 19-1 SU vs. teams that have losing records, that one loss being last night. It was just the fourth time all year they lost as a favorite. But they are a perfect 6-0 SU as a road favorite. Even with multiple starters missing, Toronto has been able to hold its last six opponents all to 102 pts or fewer. The last time this team was off a loss (Saturday), I backed them at Brooklyn and they delivered an impressive 122-101 win. 8* Toronto

10* Under Knicks/Lakers (10:35 ET): The Knicks have started their four game road trip with a couple of high-scoring losses. They went down 120-112 in Phoenix and then 135-132 to the Clippers. While losing certainly isn't irregular for this moribund franchise, scoring lots of points certainly is. Despite what's gone down in the L2 games, they are still 27th in PPG and 26th in offensive efficiency. After they shot a stunning 57.1% from the floor (and still lost!) Sunday, expect a sharp decline in offense tonight as they play the red hot Lakers. Take the Under.

The Lakers have won five in a row, but many of those games have been "too close for comfort." They led big leads slip away against both Phoenix and New Orleans, then needed a 4Q rally to defeat struggling Detroit Sunday night. They're still 20-0 SU vs. teams with losing records, but I think they'd like to be winning a lot more comfortably. One positive takeaway from the win over Detroit is that they had 20 blocked shots (eight coming from Anthony Davis), a sign they are playing good defense. 

The Lakers only allow 103.6 PPG, so again I think it's going to be a long night offensively for the Knicks. In two of the last four games, LA has held its opponent below 100 points. They are 4th in the league in defensive efficiency. This is a high total for both teams as the Lakers are 12-6 Under and the Knicks 8-4 Under when the total is 220 or higher. The Knicks are 9-5 Under this season after allowing 115+ pts and 6-2 Under the L3 seasons after allowing 130+ pts. 10* Under Knicks/Lakers

8* Syracuse (9:00 ET): Both teams are off pretty crushing defeats, but they were also very different kinds of losses. Virginia Tech was actually thinking upset when they traveled to face rival Virginia on Saturday. Instead, they got absolutely blasted by the Hoos, losing 65-39! Meanwhile, Syracuse lost by 1 (88-87) to Notre Dame here in the Carrier Dome as they allowed 15 made three-pointers. When comparing losses, I think Va Tech is going to struggle more to get over theirs. Lay the points.

Thinking you are going to pull a big upset and then losing by 26 is a cold dose of reality for the Hokies. Having to play a second road game in four nights probably isn't the way to get over it either. Since starting 6-0 with a shocking upset of Michigan State, the Hokies are just 4-4 SU the L8 games. Saturday was the first "true" road game since the season opener. Maybe we're starting to see why this team was picked low in the ACC preseason rankings. 

Syracuse couldn't get a rebound to save its life in the 2H vs. Notre Dame. Good for them then that Va Tech isn't a great rebounding team either. I don't see the Orange dropping B2B home games to a team they've never lost to here at the Carrier Dome. While Va Tech has covered in five of its six visits, they're usually getting a lot more points than this. The Cuse still is allowing just 61.3 PPG at home, so look for a bounce back effort defensively after getting torched by ND's shooters on Saturday. 8* Syracuse

7* Montreal (7:35 ET): Boy does Montreal have its back against the wall here. Last night, they suffered their sixth consecutive loss, the fifth of which was by one goal. It was 3-2 at home vs. Winnipeg, a game where I unfortunately backed the Habs. The difference ended up being a short-handed goal they allowed in the 2nd period. As bleak as things may look now, tonight they are facing the worst team in the league and this should be the spot they get back on track. 

Then again, it is a double revenge game for the Habs. They have shockingly lost twice to Detroit this year, something that cannot happen given the Red Wings have all of 10 wins all season.  Both games were in Montreal too. Curiously though, the Canadiens have been a slightly better team on the road this year. They are averaging 3.5 goals per game. They've also won four straight times here in Detroit. 

No matter what way you look at it, it's been a trying season in the Motor City as the Red Wings are the worst team in the league by just about every metric. They've lost eight of nine coming into tonight, the lone win coming New Year's Eve against San Jose. They've scored just six goals the last four games while giving up 4 in each of the last two. They are a horrendous 3-23 SU this season after allowing 4+ goals the previous game. 7* Montreal

8* Toledo (7:00 ET): I talked a little bit about the MAC over the weekend when I cashed an outright win w/ Northern Illinois at Buffalo. This is very much a wide open conference and the two teams here both think they can win it. But for Toledo, they've had a big time problem covering spreads as its a six-game ATS losing skid coming into Tuesday, not to mention four consecutive SU losses as well. Tonight they face a Kent State team that couldn't have played better in its last game. I'm taking the points with the desperate road underdog. 

Toledo opened conference play with a four-point loss to Ball State on Friday. That was a road game and the Rockets just couldn't get over the hump on a poor shooting night. It's actually been a series of poor shooting efforts as they've connected on only 38.0% of their FG attempts the L5 games. That's pretty shocking for a team that averages 76.9 PPG. My guess is we're going to see them get back on track offensively tonight.

Meanwhile, Kent State responded nicely from a blowout loss to Mississippi State, beating Bowling Green on Friday by a score of 79-61. They were 2.5-pt road underdogs, but shot 50% and led by as many as 22 points. Like I said earlier, they probably could not have played any better. But now they've got to follow that performance against a stronger opponent. The Golden Flashes are a perfect 7-0 SU at home, but they're a little lucky to be 11-3 SU overall as they've won twice in overtime and also have a one-point win at Wright State. This one reeks of an "upset" in the making. 8* Toledo 

8* Ohio (7:00 ET): Another MAC game. Ohio U has fallen to 8-6 SU after dropping three of its last four games. One was to Purdue, which is excusable even at home, but the last two losses both came as favorites. The last one, which took place Saturday, saw the Bobcats lose as 1-pt favorites at Western Michigan, 77-65. That was preceded by a poor effort here in Athens, a 63-55 loss to Campbell as eight-point chalk. I don't see this team losing a third in a row. Lay the short price. 

Eastern Michigan is one of the worst offensive teams in the entire country. They currently rank 330th in efficiency out of 353 D-I schools. Three times in the last four games the Eagles have been held below 50 points!  Two of those were on the road, right before the New Year, at Michigan State and at UNLV. Not like they were gonna win either of those games, but poor efforts nonetheless. So was Saturday's 24-point home loss to Akron. EMU shot just 27.1% in that one. 

You just can't trust a team that's this bad offensively on the road. Ohio is averaging a healthy 76.9 PPG at home, so they should win this one going away. They too are off a couple of bad shooting games, but unlike with Eastern Michigan, there really hasn't been a consistent pattern of that happening. The road team has won the L4 meetings. Time for that to change. Eastern Michigan has not covered any of its last four chances as an underdog. 8* Ohio

8* Oklahoma State (9:00 ET): West Virginia had been doing quite well for itself recently, but figures to drop slightly when the new rankings come out later today as they lost at Kansas Saturday. While there's no shame in that, especially by only a seven-point margin, the Mountaineers nevertheless find themselves in a tough spot Monday as they again have to hit the road, this time heading to Stillwater. They've lost three in a row to the Cowboys, including twice last year. Classic home dog spot. Take the points. 

Oklahoma State is also off a loss here, although theirs was far more embarrassing as they went down to Lubbock and got crushed by Texas Tech, 85-50 (only trailed by 6 at halftime). As you can tell from that final score, it was a rough shooting night for the Pokes as they made only 28.8% of their field goal attempts including an abhorrent 6 of 25 from two-point range! Needless to say, a return home will provide automatic improvement in the shooting department. OSU is also 15-9 ATS off a conference loss the previous two years. 

WVU didn't shoot well in its last game either, getting held to 32.2% by Kansas. The Mountaineers haven't been a good road team in recent years, dropping 17 of 24 outright and that even includes neutral site games. Their only "true" road win this year came at Youngstown State, who is terrible, and they failed to cover that game as 12.5-pt chalk. It's been an impressive 11-2 SU start out of Morgantown, but the team has also been beating up on some weak competition. Playing a second straight road game after facing Ohio State and Kansas is rough. 8* Oklahoma State

10* Montreal (7:05 ET): As the Habs are set to play their third straight home game, they need this one badly. They've dropped five in a row overall, four of them by one goal, and are coming off an overtime loss here to the Penguins on Saturday. A slew of injuries have definitely been a factor, but help is on the way as defenseman Marco Scandella (a Quebec native) has arrived via trade. The Canadiens are currently six points back of the Wild Card, so winning here is a must. I think they will. 

Over in the Western Conference, Winnipeg finds itself on the playoff fringe. They are one point back of the Wild Card, so this game is rather meaningful to them despite all the hockey that's still left to be played. But like the Canadiens, the Jets aren't exactly tearing it up lately. They've lost B2B games as well as 7 of 9. They too lost 3-2 in OT Saturday, falling at Minnesota. Though the game did got to overtime, the Jets were outshot badly in the contest, 44-21. 

It certainly seems as if Montreal "should" have a better home record than 8-9-4 SU. After all, they've outshot the competition here by a pretty considerable margin (36.9 SF per game vs. 29.2 SA). My view is that both the shooting percentage and save percentage have to start improving moving forward. Meanwhile, Winnipeg seems pretty lucky to have a 12-7-2 SU road record as they are giving up 35.0 shots per game, a high number. Their only two goals scored Saturday came via the power play. Habs step up big in a "must win" spot. 10* Montreal

6* Toronto (7:05 ET): Edmonton just won as a big ML underdog in Boston Saturday night, pulling a somewhat shocking 4-1 upset at +190. I can't see them doing it twice in a row, not with this being their third road game in five nights plus they're up against a red hot Toronto club. The Maple Leafs are 9-0-1 SU L10 games, a run which has really solidified them in the Atlantic Division. They have completely dominated the Oilers through the years, winning five straight including 4-1 in Edmonton last month. They have won 16 of the past 20 head to head meetings here at home.

The Oilers' season started strong, but I felt it was a bit of a mirage and sure enough they now find themselves on the fringes of playoff contention. There were a lot of come from behind victories in that strong start. Further evidence of that would be the fact they currently rank just 28th in Corsi For % (4th worst). They did not win B2B games once in December. The last time they did was right before Thanksgiving. Boston outshot them 36-26 on Saturday. 

As mentioned above, Toronto is trending in a very different direction lately. As it often does, a coaching change provided the necessary "spark" as the Leafs are 15-4-1 SU since Sheldon Keefe took over behind the bench. They are typically scoring first in games (15 of 20 games under Keefe) and speaking of scoring, a 3-0 win over the Islanders on Saturday was the first time in the L10 games they DIDN'T score at least four goals. That was just the second shutout win of the year, but they are 13-5 SU off a win by 2+ goals. 6* Toronto

10* Under Pacers/Hornets (7:05 ET): In spite of their respective records, it is Indiana that comes into Monday having lost B2B games while Charlotte has won two straight. The Pacers have had to make due w/o Victor Oladipo all season, but now are also missing Malcolm Brogden and possibly T.J. McConnell (who left the last game w/ an ankle injury). The Hornets are a team that should feel pretty lucky to even be 15-23 SU right now as their scoring differential (-6.5 per game) ranks 5th worst in the entire league! I'm taking the Under in this one. 

Now, if you recall, I had the Over in Indiana's last game. That was Saturday (when McConnell got hurt) in a 116-111 loss at lowly Atlanta. The Pacers were 7-point favorites heading into that one, but had no answer for the Hawks' Trae Young, who had 41 points. A disastrous 1st quarter (allowed 43 pts!) doomed Indiana in that game. While I'm not about to lay points with them here, I do see them playing better at the defensive end tonight. 

Charlotte ended 2019 on a six-game losing streak, but has started its New Year w/ a pair of three-point wins over Cleveland and Dallas. The latter was a real shocker as the Hornets came into Big D as 11.5-point underdogs. Note the 123-120 win came in overtime though (103-103 at end of regulation)  and required Charlotte to overcome a 12-point 4Q deficit. The Hornets play at the slowest tempo in the league and are only averaging 104.4 PPG. They aren't a good shooting team either. This has all the makings of a low-scoring game. 10* Under Pacers/Hornets

8* Over Grizzlies/Suns (8:05 ET): Part of me is a little trepidacious about taking the Over with Memphis one night after they exploded for 140 points on 51.0% overall shooting, which included 18 of 39 from three-point range. But this is a team that's now gone Over in four straight as well as 10 of its last 12 games. And the Grizz are matched up with a Suns squad that's been delivering some pretty similar results as six of its last eight games have gone Over. Take the Over here. 

With the Suns, who I was on Friday (Game of the Week), 14 of their 19 games have gone Over and that's with all but three having an O/U line of at least 220 points. The Over is 5-2 here when the total is 230 pts or higher. Them coming through against the Knicks (won 120-112 as 7-pt chalk) made it four straight ATS wins as well. This is a team that ranks in the top 10 in offensive efficiency and now they have Deandre Ayton back in the starting lineup. They average 116.9 PPG at home. 

This is not the same Memphis team of years' past as they are playing fast. Only three teams in the league - Milwaukee, Houston and Washington - average more possessions per game. So that helps. So does the fact that the Grizzlies are not a good defensive team as they give up 116.5 PPG. Both teams are in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. The first two meetings of the year both stayed Under, but that's because each time the losing side shot poorly from 3-pt range. Not this time. 8* Over Grizzlies/Suns

10* Over Purdue/Illinois (8:00 ET): The Big 10 is absolutely loaded this year. We're talking eight teams in the top 24 of the KenPom rankings and 12 in the top 44! Count these two among the lot as Purdue is a team we still have rated very highly despite five losses. Illinois also has five losses and would qualify as the 12th best team in the conference, but there has probably never been a better 12th best team in a conference in history. I like this matchup to go Over the total. 

Purdue's last three games have all gone Over. Now that comes with a bit of an asterisk considering their last game went to double overtime. The Boilermakers pulled out an 83-78 win over Minnesota. While that game was just 62-62 at the end of regulation, you'll notice the O/U line for tonight is much smaller and we're not going to need a tremendous offensive effort by either team to get this one Over. Purdue has had its issues scoring on the road, but Illinois isn't an outstanding defensive team by any means. 

However, count on the Illini shooting better tonight than they did vs. Michigan State on Thursday. They finished the game at a dreadful 29.3% from the field, obviously their worst shooting night of the season so far. But that was on the road. At home, this team is averaging 86.7 points per game on 51.6% shooting! Purdue is strong defensively, but this will be a challenge to hold the Illini in check here in Champaign. Most Illinois totals are much higher. They have gone 7-1 Over the L3 seasons coming off a game where they scored 60 pts or less. 10* Over Purdue/Illinois

10* Minnesota (7:30 ET): The Big 10 is absolutely loaded this year. We're talking eight teams in the top 24 of the KenPom rankings and 12 in the top 44! That would leave only two outliers and one of them is in play here as it's Northwestern traveling to Minnesota Sunday night. The Wildcats are most definitely the second worst team in the conference and the gap between them and the worst team (Nebraska) is actually smaller than the gap between N'western and the top 12 teams. So I'm laying the points in this one. 

Despite the gap in talent here, the line has actually come DOWN, which surprises me. Perhaps bettors are looking at the fact that Minnesota is just three days removed from a double overtime loss to Purdue. Losing that game is obviously disappointing for the Gophers, but they still covered (were +7) against a really good team. It was their 4th consecutive ATS win going back to last month's big upset of then undefeated Ohio State. While Minnesota has been a dog in four of its last five games, they are 5-1 ATS as favorites this season as well. 

Northwestern, who has been off since 12/29, is on a three-game losing streak. All three losses were close (decided by a total of 11 pts) with the most recent being a 67-66 loss to Hartford as 16-point favorites. While close, that's a BAD loss. The previous two years have seen the Wildcats go just 2-9 ATS when off 3 or more consecutive losses. They're also 2-5 SU/ATS when playing w/ 5 or 6 days rest. So this really isn't a great spot for them. I see Northwestern struggling to score here, much the same way they did at Purdue (only 44 pts) as Minnesota allows only 62.5 PPG at home. 10* Minnesota

10* Philadelphia (4:40 ET): Road teams have dominated the Wild Card Round the last two years, going 8-0 ATS and 5-3 SU. However, none of them were favored as Seattle is here. You actually have to go all the way back to 2015, when three of the four home teams were getting points, to find the last home dog in the WC round. My numbers patently disagree with this line as they say the Eagles should be favored by 4 points! The reason for the discrepancy is not only due to all the Eagles' injuries, but also the disparity in records. But don't be fooled.  Take the points. 

Seattle is a very fraudulent 11-5 SU team. They finished w/ a +7 YTD point differential, 2nd worst among playoff teams (only Houston's -7 was worse). The Eagles, despite winning two fewer games, finished w/ a +31 YTD point differential. The Seahawks' point differential is more indicative of a 9-win team. It would be very fair to place this team among the very worst 11+ win teams in NFL history. Key to their success was Russell Wilson's playmaking, but more so extremely good fortune in close games. They were a league best 10-2 SU in games decided by eight points or less. That's right - they had only ONE win by more than 8 pts and it was against Arizona back in Wk 4! 

One of those close wins was here in Philadelphia back in Week 12, 17-9 as a 1-pt favorite. This is the only regular season rematch of the WC round. Obviously, it's very hard to beat the same team on the road twice in the same season and Philadelphia always seems to "turn it up a notch" here in the playoffs. Though this will be Carson Wentz's first career playoff start (really!), the Eagles have gone 5-0 ATS the L2 years in the postseason & they've been an underdog every time! They've pulled four outright upsets, the only SU loss coming LY in New Orleans, and of course won the Super Bowl two years ago. So Doug Pederson's team being "overlooked" is nothing new. Once again, they make the doubters pay. 10* Philadelphia

8* Minnesota (1:00 ET): As per usual, Kirk Cousins' poor record against good teams will be front and center here. The Vikings QB is a shocking 0-15 SU and 1-13-1 ATS against teams that won at least 12 regular season games. While I'm not willing to bet that Cousins can lead his team to an outright win in the Mercedes Benz Superdome on Sunday, I do see him and the Vikes keeping this one close. Maybe it's because they ended their regular season w/ B2B home losses, but people REALLY seem to be underrating Minnesota in this spot. It's the first time since Cousins arrived that they are getting more than seven points. My power ratings say the spread should only be -4.5. Take the points.

New Orleans has been on fire down the stretch and is a league-best 11-3 ATS since Week 3. That includes a 5-0 record when Drew Brees was out with an injury. But the Saints are far from "sure bet" in this instance. They are just 2-5 ATS their L7 home playoff games and each of their L7 playoff games (whether home or road) have been decided by eight points or less. They actually haven't won a playoff game by more than six points since the 2011 Wild Card Round vs. Detroit. Hot as they were down the stretch, the Saints had some good luck this year w/ an 8-1 SU record in games decided by eight points or less.

I believe we're getting a great number here. The spread would have been much shorter had this game been played just a few weeks ago. The Vikings did not have RB Dalvin Cook for either of the L2 regular season games (all offensive starters rested last week), so the offensive numbers from those games are misleading. Cook is set to return here, which will be a big difference maker. The Vikings have not lost three in a row since 2016 and are 2-0 ATS since when off B2B losses. Going into last week's meaningless regular season finale, they had been 25-9-1 ATS off a loss under HC Zimmer including 4-0 this season. Four of Minnesota's six losses this year have been by 7 pts or less. Their defense allows fewer PPG compared to the Saints. 8* Minnesota

10* Under Vikings/Saints (1:00 ET): Finishing the regular season 10-6 SU is pretty good, but I feel Minnesota is better than their record as they played the last two games w/o RB Dalvin Cook and lost both. (Furthermore, they basically rested everyone in a meaningless Week 17 game vs. Chicago). Their YTD point differential of +104 was better than all but six teams in the league. That said, if they are to keep this Wild Card Game in New Orleans close, or even pull the outright upset, it'll likely be because of a defense that allows just only 18.9 PPG rather than Kirk Cousins and the offense. The O/U line has been bet up here and I see value on the Under.

The Saints went 13-3 SU despite missing Drew Brees for 5+ games. They won all five games Brees didn't start, which was key. But there's no doubt this team hit its stride down the stretch w/ Brees back in the lineup. Still don't discount the impact the Saints defense has had on the team's success this season. It's been the best in the league at stopping the run over the L2 years and that's key when facing a Vikings' offense that is going to look to put the ball in Cook's hands. 

In case you're wondering, this is a pretty high spread for the Wild Card round. Going back to 2012, it's only the 8th instance of a WC Game having a spread of a TD or more. The previous seven all went Under the total! In fact, 10 of the last 11 WC games with a spread of at least six points stayed Under. New Orleans is giving up only 21.3 PPG and allowed 17 pts or fewer seven times. 10* Under Vikings/Saints

10* Over Pacers/Hawks (7:35 ET): I don't figure Atlanta will do very well in this spot. They are playing in the second night of a back to back and that's a situation they're already a horrendous 0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS in this season. If that record isn't bad enough, they are being outscored by an incredible 25.0 points per game in those seven losses. Making this B2B even tougher than usual is the fact they were spotted an 18-point 1Q lead in Boston last night and couldn't hold it, losing 109-106 to the Celtics. Look for this game to go Over as the tired Hawks figure to allow plenty of points. 

Defense has been a problem for Atlanta all season. They are 28th in the league in efficiency giving up over 1.1 points per possession. Only Washington, who is playing some historically bad defense, allows more points per game. In those seven losses the Hawks have taken when playing the second night of a back to back, they have given up an average of 125.1 PPG. All signs points to a long night for the home team here and them giving up a lot of points to Indiana. 

The Pacers haven't been shy about scoring recently, reaching 112 pts in four of their last five games. Problem is they've also given up 113+ in five of their last six, including a 124-116 home loss to Denver Thursday night. Malcolm Brogden (back) will be sitting next to Victor Oladipo on the bench for this one, but for all the reasons listed above, expect Indiana to still score plenty. Brogden has hardly played at all during a stretch in which Indiana has gone 4-1 Over its L5 games. Atlanta plays at a pretty fast pace (4th in adj tempo), which helps. 10* Over Pacers/Hawks

10* Toronto (6:05 ET): Though they've lost 16 of the last 17 meetings with the Raptors, the Nets are likely to come into this game irrationally confident due to the fact they are getting Caris LeVert back in the lineup. LeVert, along w/ Kyrie Irving, has missed substantial time due to injury (thumb surgery). But just how effective can he be in his first game back, following an almost two month absence? Brooklyn is also on a season-worst four game losing streak right now. The wrong team is favored here. 

While just how effective LeVert will be tonight can certainly be debated, one thing is for certain. Toronto is going to shoot a lot better than it did in an ugly 84-76 loss at Miami Thursday night. That loss, which marked the first time in three years the Raptors were held below 80 points, saw them run into a tricky Heat zone defense and they shot a woeful 6 of 42 from three-point range. In addition to simple progression to the mean, another reason the Raptors' offense should improve tremendously in this game is the fact Brooklyn has allowed 120+ pts in B2B games for the first time all season. 

While Brooklyn is getting back one of its big stars, Toronto is still waiting on Pascal Siakam to come back. But they've been dealing with key players being in and out of the lineup all season and have still managed a 23-12 SU record. Defensively, there are no issues for the defending champs as they've held four straight opponents under 100 pts (wow!) and allow only 102.1 PPG for the season on the road. They are 13-1 SU vs. sub.-500 teams (Nets are 16-17 SU) and covered both times after they previously held their last opponent below 90 pts. 10* Toronto

8* Northern Arizona (6:00 ET): All of a sudden, Northern Arizona has lost three in a row. But all three games were on the road and two of the losses came by two points. The Lumberjacks return to Flagstaff Saturday for this evening matchup with Big Sky rival Weber State. NAU has been a solid team at the betting window thus far, going 6-3 ATS, and they've got some big time revenge on the mind here as they've lost all four matchups with Weber State the L2 seasons (also 0-4 ATS). 

Weber State was very close to entering this game on its own three-game losing skid. But after opening conference play with a 79-77 home loss to Eastern Washington, the Wildcats were able to sneak by Idaho on Monday, 69-68. But they did not cover as 9-point chalk. This will be Weber State's first conference away game and so far the road has been unkind as they are 1-6 SU and averaging just 58.6 PPG outside of Ogden. This is actually one of the longer road trips for most Big Sky teams. 

Admittedly, Northern Arizona isn't too used to being the favorite. It's been the case just ONE time in that 6-3 ATS start. Sure enough, they happened to play arguably their worst game of the season, losing 85-66 here at home to Cal Davis. But I don't see history repeating itself Saturday. The Lumberjacks average 85 PPG at home and are also a better defensive team than Weber State as they allow just 61.2 PPG in Flagstaff. Weber State has just TWO wins over D-I opponents so far and they've come by a total of six points. 8* Northern Arizona

10* Buffalo (4:30 ET): For many, the Bills making the playoffs was a surprise. I know I wasn't expecting it. They won only six games LY, but increased that number to 10 in 2019, which is one more win than they had when they made the playoffs in Sean McDermott's first season (2017). While they certainly rode a fairly easy schedule to get here, give Buffalo credit for outscoring its opponents by 55 points in the regular season, a top 10 differential and that's after losing the L2 games (rested starters in Wk 17). The defense is quite legit as it ranked 2nd in scoring (16.2 PPG) and 3rd in yards allowed (298.3 YPG). If it's true that "defense wins in the playoffs," then the Bills might be in better shape than we all think. 

Houston also went 10-6 SU, which was enough to win the AFC South. When Colts QB Andrew Luck shockingly hung up his cleats, most figured the Texans would run away with this division. But they were by no means a dominant team. They were the only playoff team to get outscored this year (-7 point differential). The defense really fell off a cliff in the second half, which was tied to J.J. Watt being absent from the lineup. While Watt's return for the playoffs seems to be the headline story here, make no mistake about it - the Bills still have a better defense than the Texans.

Buffalo infamously has not won a playoff game since 1995, the league third longest active drought. But Houston has hardly been a playoff juggernaut, going 1-3 SU/ATS under HC Bill O'Brien, including an outright loss here at home to the Colts LY. While Watt is back, the health of WR Will Fuller may be of greater concern for the Texans. QB DeShaun Watson simply isn't the same w/o Fuller. Bills QB Josh Allen was actually one of three QB's to run for more yds than Watson this year. While the Bills allowed the fewest yards per carry to QB's (2.8), the Texans allowed the second most (5.6). Excluding last week's game when they rested starters, the Bills are 10-5-1 ATS as dogs since Allen became the starter. They also went 6-2 SU on the road (6-1-1 ATS) averaging more points than they did at home. Houston is 8-15 ATS as a favorite the L3 seasons (nine outright losses) including 1-6 this season. Not only do the Bills have the better defense, they are the better team. Take the points. 10* Buffalo 

8* Northern Illinois (2:00 ET): Northern Illinois lost its last game, 85-84 to Green Bay, as a 6.5-point home favorite. They've had plenty of time to stew over that defeat as it took place all the way back on December 21st. Now they'll hit the road for the MAC opener, taking on perennial conference heavyweight Buffalo. But in addition to being motivated by that outright loss they suffered two weeks ago, the Huskies won't be intimidated here. They've upset the Bulls each of the last two times they've faced them! Take the points. 

This Buffalo team is not as strong as those of the last couple years. Former HC Nate Oats bolted for Alabama after guiding the program to a 32-4 SU record LY and its second straight Round of 32 appearance in the NCAA Tournament. Unless the Bulls run the table, they won't match LY's WL record as they enter this game at 9-4 SU. They did hand an overrated DePaul team its 1st loss back in December and they can score (80.8 PPG). But I don't consider this the favorite to win the MAC this year. In fact, I currently have four teams in the conference rated better. 

Northern Illinois isn't one of those four, but this is too many points for Buffalo to be laying in this spot. The Huskies were in a tough spot for that home loss to Green Bay as they were coming off four consecutive road games, two of them out on the West Coast. It was their first time back in DeKalb in nearly a month. While they're back on the road today, they covered the last two times they were a dog and those were against better teams (St. Mary's, Pitt). The Huskies allow fewer PPG than Buffalo does, by a pretty substantial margin (63.5 vs. 76.2). 8* Northern Illinois

8* Virginia Tech (2:00 ET): How appropriate I would be stepping out for this rivalry game! The annual battle for the Commonwealth Cup was my 10* Game of the Year in College Football and I had Virginia has they ended a frustrating 15-year losing streak to Va Tech with an outright upset. On the basketball court, however, the in-state rivalry has been owned by the Hoos. True to form, I'll be backing the underdog in this one as I feel Virginia is living off its reputation from the last several years. This team is nowhere near as good as it was the last two years. Take the points.

One year after suffering the humiliation of being the first #1 seed to ever lose to a #16 in the NCAA Tournament, Virginia bounced back to win the National Championship. This is a program that we've been consistently high on throughout Tony Bennett's tenure. Once again, the Cavaliers are leading the country in points allowed (47.3 per game). But they are pretty bad offensively, ranking an ugly 178th in efficiency. Honestly, even at 10-2 SU, I'm not sure they deserved to be ranked in the top 25. The Cavs have yet to score more than 65 in a game this season, so they're not a team I'd be confident betting as a favorite - even with that defense. Sure enough, they are 3-8 ATS in that role so far this season. After covering the first two games of the season, UVA is just 1-9 ATS its L10 overall. 

Virginia Tech is 10-3 SU and comes in riding a four-game win streak. While they've played just one "true" road game so far (won it, at Clemson), you can't say the Hokies aren't battle tested. They beat Michigan State in Maui (71-66 as 13-point dogs) and have also faced Duke. Since losing to the Blue Devils, Va Tech has given up an average of just 49 PPG in its 4-game win streak. In what figures to be a low-scoring game, grabbing the points seems like the right move. Plus, Va Tech is the much better three-point shooting team here. 8* Virginia Tech

10* Columbus (1:05 ET): Both teams here are having disappointing seasons, but San Jose's situation is the one that seems more dire. The Sharks only recently escaped the basement in the Western Conference. They did so by going into Pittsburgh and shocking the Penguins with a 3-2 overtime victory. But even after pulling that upset, the Sharks still have just 39 points and they've been outscored by 29 goals, the worst differential in the entire conference. I don't see them pulling two upsets in a row. 

Columbus may not measure up to the top four teams in the Metro, but with 46 points they are only three back of the Wild Card. It's a two-game win streak for the Blue Jackets coming into Saturday's matinee as they defeated Florida here at home (4-1), then pulled an overtime shocker of their own Thursday, winning 2-1 as +190 ML dogs in Boston. The Blue Jackets are a pretty strong defensive club as they give up only 2.4 goals per game here at home. 

Meanwhile, San Jose is allowing 3.33 goals per game, placing them among the five worst defensive teams in the league. It's not just defense though. The offensive numbers on the road are pretty dire as they average only 2.26 gpg, which is ahead of only last place teams New Jersey and Detroit. Before the shocker in Pittsburgh, the Sharks had lost 11 of 12, all but two of those losses coming in regulation. They have not won B2B games since November. C-Bus is 8-0-4 its L12 games, the longest active point streak in the league. 10* Columbus

10* Over Tulane/Southern Miss (11:30 AM ET): The Armed Forces Bowl in Ft. Worth, TX will be the home for our top College Football bowl total. Both Tulane and Southern Miss are led by the respective offenses, each of which can claim to have a QB that accounted for at least 3,000 total yards. In the case of Tulane's Justin McMillan, he ran for 704 yards in addition to throwing for 2,229. Nearly half (12) of his 26 total TD's came on the ground. Southern Miss QB Jack Abraham got there in more of a "traditional sense" with 3,329 yards passing, though five of his 23 total TDs were rushing. Take the Over here. 

Tulane didn't exactly play well down the stretch as they come in having lost five of six, including three straight. This is the exact opposite of last year when they started 2-5 SU before closing on a 5-1 run that included a 41-24 bowl win (Cure) over Louisiana. Still they did go 6-1 SU/ATS as chalk in 2019 and they are favored in this game. That's pretty significant as the Green Wave averaged 41.1 PPG this year when favored. But it's also easy to see why they faltered down the stretch and that's a leaky defense that gave up an average of 35.7 points those L6 games. 

The Southern Miss offense didn't do much of anything in the last two regular season games and that's what cost them a shot at playing for the C-USA Championship. In fact, the Golden Eagles' last five games have all stayed Under. But this is a bowl game and I expect a more wide open offensive display. You have two offenses averaging over 400 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. These are old rivals both happy to be in a bowl game. Southern Miss scored 30 or more seven times while Tulane crossed that threshold eight times. Be prepared for a shootout. 10* Over Tulane/Southern Miss

10* Ohio (3:30 ET): Of the 78 FBS teams that made it into a bowl game, we have Nevada rated as the worst. The Wolf Pack went 7-5 SU in what was a "down year" in the Mountain West Conference and had only two wins by more the seven points. Those two wins were against UTEP and New Mexico, who combined for a 3-21 SU record. Two stunning upsets - over Purdue and San Diego State (both coming as 17-pt dogs) - are what got them to Idaho for the Famous Potato Bowl. 

Ohio had a disappointing regular season as many, myself included, figured this was the year they'd finally win a MAC Championship for HC Frank Solich (15th season in Athens). But the Bobcats still are w/o a MAC Championship going all the way back to 1968. The reason for that is tey underachieved this year, losing four different times as a favorite. But even though neither played in the Conference Championship Game, we still consider OU right next to Western Michigan as the best teams the MAC had to offer this year. The Bobcats offense averaged nearly 35 PPG and is led by QB Nathan Rourke, who threw for 2,676 yards w/ a 20-5 TD-INT ratio. 

Adding to the list of Nevada issues is that five players have been suspended for this game. Four of them are defensive starters. Three are among the top six tacklers on an already suspect defense (32.1 PPG allowed). Three of the four suspended defensive starters won't play at all, the fourth will miss only the 1st half. The reason for the suspensions was a fight w/ UNLV at the end of the regular season finale. The Wolf Pack were outscored by nearly 11 PPG this year, a stunning margin for a bowl team. Basically the entire defensive coaching staff was let go after the loss to the UNLV. While this number has already moved some, that's okay as we have Ohio as almost a two-touchdown favorite for this one! 10* Ohio 

10* Southern Utah (9:00 ET): We head out to Big Sky country for this one and I think Southern Utah is ready to snap its losing streak to Montana. Since joining the Big Sky Conference, Southern Utah has NEVER beaten Montana, losing all 12 head to head matchups. They haven't had much luck at the betting window in those games either, failing to cover seven in a row (all double digit losses). Yet it speaks volumes that the Thunderbirds come in as the favorites this time around (never happened before) and deservedly so. Lay the short number. 

Another streak on the line here is Montana's six-game conference win streak. They haven't lost a Big Sky game since March 7th of last year when they were upset by Portland State. But this year's Golden Grizzlies simply aren't as good as past editions. Though they've opened 2-0 SU in conference play, those wins were at home and close. They are 0-6 SU on the road so far, scoring only 59.5 PPG. They are also just 1-5 ATS as underdogs, losing all six games outright. They are just 3-15 SU their L18 times as a dog. 

Southern Utah is the better team here. The Thunderbirds rank 2nd in the Big Sky in offensive rebound rate. They have also won four in a row here in Cedar City where they are averaging 92.8 PPG. The key here is to get to 73 points, very doable, as Montana has yet to win a game when allowing that many. The Golden Grizzlies have three players who have accounted for 81% of all points the L5 games. That's not a lot of balance. This is SUU's "time to shine." 10* Southern Utah.

8* Toronto (7:35 ET): Oddsmakers seem to be doubting the Raptors in this matchup of top Eastern Conference teams. The defending NBA Champs have certainly proven that they are still going to be a force despite losing Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard. I know they've been dogged by injuries more than just about any team besides Golden State (oh, the irony!) but even w/o Pascal Siakam the Raptors were able to go to Boston recently and win by 16. I'll take the points in this revenge spot.

Miami had a five-game winning streak going into their final contest of 2019. But four of those five wins had been by four points or less, including three straight by a total of five pts. Those close calls caught up with them in Washington where they suffered a shocking outright loss as 14-point favorites to a severely undermanned Wizards team. Thus, the Heat have now failed to cover four in a row. While they are 15-1 SU at home, I don't buy that they should be laying more than three points to this particular opponent. 

As alluded to above, this is a revenge game for the Raptors. Almost exactly one month ago, they lost at home to the Heat 121-110 as 5.5-point favorites. That was Kyle Lowry's first game back from his injury and he shot terribly, missing all 11 three-point attempts in addition to his first 11 shots overall. That won't happen again. The Raptors swept the season series from the Heat last year. While Miami is coming off a terrible defensive effort (gave up a 42-point quarter), Toronto has held three straight opponents below 100 points. That makes them attractive as the underdog. 8* Toronto

10* Over Sharks/Penguins (7:05 ET): Pittsburgh just lost its leading scorer Jake Guentzel for the rest of the regular season. But following three straight wins where they tallied 16 goals, I think we can probably count on them scoring a good number of goals tonight. They are averaging 3.5 per game at home and there's no reason to believe that won't continue as they get off plenty of shots as well. Not all the scoring came from Guentzel. Despite injuries, this remains one of the top teams in the league. 

San Jose is having a down year. They went 2-9-2 in December, fired their head coach and now reside in last place in the Western Conference with just 37 points. Scoring has been difficult for the Sharks as they have scored two or less goals in five of the last six games. They come in averaging only 2.2 per game on the road and were just shut out by an awful Detroit club on New Year's Eve. 

While this matchup certainly looks lopsided on paper, I think it could be more competitive than you may think. San Jose did score six times in a home win over Philadelphia last week. The key here is them scoring 2-3 goals, which I think they can do. While the Guentzel injury is obviously big for Pittsburgh, this is a team that has scored at least four goals in six of its last seven games. There's plenty of remaining firepower. 10* Over Sharks/Penguins

10* Indiana (7:00 ET): Indiana has not won a bowl game since the '91 Copper. Granted, they've been to only four since, but this program is dying for something resembling a "marquee" victory. Beating Tennessee in the Gator Bowl would certainly qualify. The Hoosiers have perennially struggled to beat the top teams they face as is evident by a shocking 1-16 SU record as an underdog under HC Tom Allen (third year here). But A LOT of those games have been close. My own power rankings say IU should be the favorite here, so I'll take them with the added value.

Things were not looking good for Tennessee after a 1-4 SU start that included a home loss to Georgia State. But credit HC Jeremy Pruitt for turning things around in Knoxville as the Vols finished on a 6-1 SU run w/ the lone loss coming to Alabama. But as far as SEC schedules go, the one UT made its run against was pretty easy. It has only two wins over bowl teams, those being Kentucky (by 4) and Mississippi State (by 10). They lost to Florida, Georgia and Bama by an average of nearly four touchdowns per game. I'm really not sure why the Volunteers were bet to the role of favorite here. 

Admittedly, you could say some of the same things about Indiana as they didn't beat a single bowl team and all of its losses were to teams ranked at the time. But I come back to the Hoosiers wanting that elusive bowl win. In the two years before Allen's arrival, they were close, losing by three in overtime to Duke (Pinstripe) then by two to Utah (Foster Farms). The latter was actually Allen's first game as HC (was interim). I'm trusting my own numbers and for the Hoosiers to be the more motivated side here. 10* Indiana

8* UNC Wilmington (6:30 ET): A pretty ugly matchup to ring in the New Year with, out of the Colonial. Both teams are already 0-2 in conference play. James Madison started by losing two straight at home, to Hofstra by six and to Northeastern by 16. UNC Wilmington's two CAA defeats both came on the road as they lost by 14 at Delaware and by five at Drexel. Overall, the Seahawks have now lost seven in a row. But it isn't often JMU is favored, especially on the road. I'll take the points.

UNC Wilmington did recently have team assist leader Kai Toews bolt the program. That was right before conference play began. I know he ws the starting point guard. But considering the Seahawks had lost five in a row with Toews on the floor, I don't think he'll be all that missed. Look for UNCW to get back to scoring more in this game as James Madison is allowing 76.5 PPG. I know little has gone right for this team so far, but this is a rare time the Seahawks should feel confident that they can win.

These teams also have a history of close games. Three of the last four meetings were decided by three points or less. The road team won both times last season, but JMU has yet to be a road favorite at all this season. In fact, the Dukes have been favored in only five games total. Their defensive issues are pretty glaring as five of their last seven opponents have gone for at least 82 points. JMU also is only shooting 36.9% away from home. 8* UNC Wilmington

10* Over Boston College/Cincinnati (3:00 ET): B.C. is clearly not at "full strength" entering the Birmingham Bowl. Despite leading his (now former) team to an upset win over Pitt in the regular season finale (that got them bowl eligible), Steve Addazio was let go as the HC after seven seasons where the Eagles never finished w/ more than seven victories. RB A.J. Dillon, the team's best player, won't be suiting up here either as he's getting ready for the NFL Draft. So it's no wonder B.C. is a decided underdog here. But if we've learned anything about the Eagles it's that they are a dangerous underdog. They've covered 13 of the last 19 times getting points including a 9-0 ATS record priced between +3.5 and +10.  Five of those nine covers came this season.

Furthermore, Cincinnati comes into this game with a possible lack of motivation after suffering B2B losses to Memphis. The second was in the American Conference Championship Game and that cost them the chance to play in the Cotton Bowl. Still, Luke Fickell has done a good job here in guiding the program to B2B 10+ win seasons and the Bearcats are definitely a better team than B.C. But will they show up? One thing I'm counting on is Cincy scoring plenty of points in this one as the Boston College defense was not up to par in 2019, giving up 31.7 points and 480.3 yards per game. The Eagles are among the worst teams in the country at defending the pass. 

Despite Dillon sitting out and an interim head coach (Rich Gunnell), I expect Boston College's offense to perform better than expected. Dillon's backup David Bailey ran for 811 yards and seven touchdowns in the regular season. This is an offense that averaged more than 30 PPG. But the B.C. defense remains a major liability. Cincinnati comes in on a five-game Under streak, but I expect that to change here in a game where both teams could go for 30+ pts. Another key factor is that the Bearcats' defense allowed only 13.3 PPG at home, but 28.9 PPG on the road. 10* Over Boston College/Cincinnati

8* Utah State (11:00 ET): So a big key here is that Aggies' leading scorer Sam Merrill has been upgraded to probable. The last game Merrill played saw Utah State upset Florida down in Miami, 65-62, led by his 21 points. But even without him, Utah State was able to put 129 points on the board Saturday, albeit against Eastern Oregon. This remains a very underrated team, one that's going to compete with still undefeated San Diego State for Mountain West Conference supremacy. Even if Merrill doesn't play tonight, we'll still lay the short number tonight in Vegas. 

UNLV is only 6-8 SU and that's after winning their last two games. Both were here at home as they rolled to double digit victories against Eastern Michigan and Robert Morris. But Utah State is a team that the Rebels have struggled to deal with the last couple seasons. It's an 0-3 SU/ATS record the L3 meetings and it's tough to see this one going any better. The Rebels are 2-7 ATS this season vs. teams with winning records and they're going to struggle to score here vs. a team that allows a FG% of just 38.2 on the year.

Offensively, USU is 18th in the country at 81.8 PPG. The last game, where they blitzed a NAIA school, obviously helped to inflate that scoring average. But they had plenty of big scoring nights prior to that and remember they were without Merrill vs. Eastern Oregon. I seem to be a bit higher on the Aggies than the marketplace is. Perhaps the reason we're getting such a good number on USU is because prior to them upsetting Florida, they'd failed to cover six in a row. But whatever the reason for the short spread, I'm laying it. 8* Utah State

10* Georgia (8:45 ET): A stunning number of Georgia players (13!) will be sitting out here in order to avoid injury. As a result, the 5th ranked team in the country has been bet down considerably for this Sugar Bowl matchup w/ Baylor on New Year's Day. Almost all the players that are sitting out can be counted among the two-deep on the roster and six are starters. But it sure seems as if people are "forgetting" how good the Bulldogs were this year. Those who do suit up are going to be motivated and with the number being bet down so much, I'm willing to lay it!

Georgia has one of the best defenses in the country. Sure, they gave up 37 points to LSU in the SEC Championship Game. But given how the top-ranked Tigers looked against Oklahoma in the CFP Semifinal Saturday, that's really not all that bad. It was actually 12 pts below LSU's season average and one of only three times the Tigers were held below 40 pts in the regular season. I know Baylor HC Matt Rhule has an incredible ATS record when getting points (34-14 all-time). But even with QB Charlie Brewer back under center (suffered concussion in Big 12 Champ Game), I believe the Bears are going to struggle to score here. 

Those Georgia players that do take the field New Year's Night will be motivated. Not just because everyone is seemingly "writing them off," but also because of what happened in this game last year. The Bulldogs were 12-point favorites against Texas, came in and gave an uninspired effort and lost outright 28-21. I had the Under on that game, which was also a double-digit winner. I don't see history repeating itself w/ UGA laying an egg in B2B Sugar Bowls. This is great value as Baylor overachieved this year, winning four games by less than three points or in overtime. 10* Georgia 

8* Calgary (9:05 ET): The Flames will be our last bet of 2019 as they look to avoid what would be a fifth straight loss at home. Fortunately, they are facing a team they've gone a perfect 6-0 against the L2 seasons. We played Calgary last time out and they really let us down in a 5-2 loss here at home to Vancouver. The Canucks were playing the second night of a back to back, yet they came out looking like the fresher team in taking a 3-0 first period lead. I can't see anything but a very motivated Calgary team getting two points tonight. 

Despite just getting hit wish a rash of injuries, Chicago has somehow posted B2B wins as an underdog. Five players are either on IR or out for the season, including Brent Seabrook, Brandon Saad and Calvin de Haan. Eventually that will catch up with the Blackhawks. Tonight seems like a logical spot for them to lose. This team is giving up a ton of shots per game (37.3 on the road!). Given all of the above, them winning a fifth straight time as an underdog just seems illogical. 

Calgary not only won the Pacific Division LY, they also finished first in the Western Conference. But like the top seed in the Eastern Conference (Tampa Bay), they got upset in the first round of the playoffs. I figured they'd regress some this season, but being in 4th place in the division and on the fringe of the playoffs is disappointing. Good news is they can still change that. This should be a bounce back game. 8* Calgary

8* Colorado (8:05 ET): It was just a few seasons ago that the Avalanche had one of the worst regular seasons in NHL history, finishing with just 48 points. How far they've come since 2016-17. Following B2B 90+ point campaigns, they already have 50 points entering New Year's Eve when they'll host division rival Winnipeg. But despite this great start, the Avs do come into the final day of 2019 on a two-game losing streak. I think they end it tonight on home ice. 

Winnipeg isn't exactly playing well either. They've dropped three straight and five out of their last six. They've allowed at least four goals in each of those five losses. A home and home w/ the defending Stanley Cup Champion Blues didn't go well. After losing 5-4 at home in overtime, they were beaten 4-1 Sunday in St. Louis.  

Colorado has lost three consecutive home games, something that has to be on the players' minds entering tonight. In their last home game, they lost as a -210 favorite to the Wild. Can't see them dropping another one in a similar price range. One of the reasons I'm so confident in the Avs' fortunes is their +28 YTD goal differential, which is the best in the Western Conference. While the power play has recently struggled to convert, this looks like a spot where that could change as the Jets' penalty killing has been atrocious (just 50% last 7 games). 8* Colorado 

8* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): I'm on the record as saying the Lightning are going to make a move in the Atlantic Division. With a three-game win streak, they're already up to 4th place and they have the second best YTD goal differential in the division at +15. Getting into the top three in the division is critical because you get a guaranteed playoff spot. It's very likely that both Wild Cards in the Eastern Conference are going to go to the much deeper Metropolitan Division. 

Remember that the Lightning won a NHL record 62 games in LY's regular season. A stunning first round playoff exit took all the shine off that season, but this is a dangerous club that still deserves to be mentioned among the league's elite. As for tonight's opponent, Buffalo, we are again witnessing a quick decline after what was a strong start to the season. The Sabres started 8-1-1 but are just 9-15-6 since. That's a .333 win percentage. Last year was a similar type deal with a 17-6-2 record going into Thanksgiving only for them to miss the playoffs. 

The Sabres just got swept in a home and home by first place Boston. No shame in that I suppose, but before that they were beaten by the lowly Senators. Overall, Buffalo has won just once in its past seven games. They've been outscored 25-12. All three games in Tampa Bay's win streak were at home where they average almost 4.0 goals per game. But I have faith that they can get the job done on the road as they outscored those L3 opponents 13-6. They are already 3-0 vs. the Sabres this season and have beaten them six straight times overall. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Over Clippers/Kings (5:05 ET): I wouldn't go counting on Sacramento to play anything resembling "stellar defense" tonight. More than just about anybody, the Kings are looking to say "goodbye" to 2019 as they've now lost seven in a row and failed to cover the spread six times. Some of these losses have been close (4 of the last 5 have been by 5 pts or less), but the common theme has been lack of defense. They've given up at least 110 points in all but one of the seven consecutive defeats. 

Compared to the Kings, the Clippers are obviously in a much better position entering 2020. While they're looking to rebound from a 120-107 upset loss at the hands of the Utah Jazz (were 7-point favorites), I'm willing to call the Clips the third best team in the West right now. They beat the Lakers on X-Mas, though they needed to come from behind to do so. Had they not come back in that one, then it would actually be a three-game losing streak entering tonight. Still, LA's record is 23-11 and they are outscoring opponents by 6.5 points per game. 

The road has been a little tricky for the Clips however and that's why I'm not about to lay this number. Their road record is just 9-8 SU and that includes X-Mas, which really wasn't a "true" road win. It's not like the Clippers' offense suffers away from home as their scoring average (114.5 PPG) is pretty much in line w/ what they average at Staples Center (116.1). The issue is defense as they go from allowing 105.5 PPG at home to 112.3 on the road. Compounding matters here is they just lost one of their top defenders, Patrick Beverley, to a wrist injury. 10* Over Clippers/Kings

10* Over Georgia State/Wyoming (4:30 ET): Admittedly, Wyoming very much has the statistical profile of an Under team. They have a defense that allows just 17.8 points per game and just 2.9 yards per rush. Meanwhile, the offense comes into the Arizona Bowl averaging just 24.3 PPG and 18.3 outside of Laramie. Since QB Sean Chambers (dual threat) went down with a season-ending knee injury, it's no wonder that every Cowboys game has finished Under the total. Overall, they are on a six-game Under streak coming into this game. 

However, it's a much different story with the Georgia State defense, which allows a 65% completion percentage and 5.3 yards per carry. They give up 36.1 points and 451 yards per game and those numbers get even worse away from home. Thankfully though, the Panthers can score. They average 32.4 points and 446.9 yards per game. So this will be a real "clash of styles" on New Year's Eve afternoon. 

The Wyoming offense may not have the most impressive resume, but they come into the Arizona Bowl as a bit of a "wild card" due to the fact seldom used freshman Levi Williams will get the start at QB. Look for the Pokes to heavily lean on RB Xazavian Valladay, who had a 1,000 yd regular season. Given that Georgia State's defense allows such a high number of YPC, look for Wyoming to move the ball more than they usually do. There were seven different games this season where Georgia State opponents had 200+ rushing yards. Those six opponents averaged a whopping 42.2 PPG, all but one scoring at least 37. The Georgia State offense will do enough to help get this one get Over. 10* Over Georgia State/Wyoming  

8* Temple (2:00 ET): Under 1st year HC Aaron McKie, Temple has started 8-3. The Owls just beat a Rider team that had previously won five in a row and did so fairly convincingly, winning 77-68 as a 9-point favorite. That was a nice bounce back for McKie's team, which had just lost to Miami FL by one point (78-77) four days earlier. Something notable about this group is that it ranks #24 in the country in defensive efficiency as its opponents are shooting only 36.2% for the year. 

UCF also suffered only three losses in non-conference play. Two of them were by just a single point, the most recent coming 10 days ago when they fell 53-52 at Oklahoma. The Knights are 9-3 SU overall and 5-1 ATS vs. teams with winning record. They were nine-point underdogs to the Sooners, so that was an easy cover despite them shooting just 31.3% from the field. Still, I don't feel UCF is in Temple's same class as they are really lacking in signature wins and aren't as strong at either end of the floor. 

Safe to say, oddsmakers made a mistake not opening Temple as a larger favorite. Even though UCF has suffered just one loss by more than one point, look for them to struggle to score against the strong Temple defense today. The Owls already have "true" road wins over LaSalle, USC and Texas A&M and can also say they hung tough on a neutral court vs. Maryland. McKie inherited a pretty experienced team and we saw what they were capable of in that 27-point beatdown of St. Joe's earlier this month. 8* Temple

10* Seton Hall (8:30 ET): DePaul has lost only one game this year, but they're a team I don't put much stock in. Now that Big East play is about to begin, expect the Blue Demons' 12-1 SU record to take a major hit. I count at least seven teams in the conference that I rate higher than DePaul right now. One of them is Seton Hall, who comes to Chicago tonight. The Pirates have been without their best player, Myles Powell (21.2 PPG), due to a concussion. But there seems to be some positive news on that situation as Powell could play tonight. Whether or not he does, take the Pirates. 

Seton Hall has already proven that they can win without Powell as they went to Maryland and handed the Terps their first loss of the year. I think it speaks volumes that Seton Hall isn't an underdog here, even with Powell's uncertain status. With Powell, they are a top 25 team in my view. After the upset of Maryland, things did get a bit "dicey" for a half against Prairie View A&M last week. But they wound up shooting 57.6% in the second half and still won by 20 points. 

The official report on Powell is that he "definitely" will be back for the Georgetown game on Friday. He has practiced the L2 days. Again, with or without him, Seton Hall is the call here. DePaul has had plenty of close wins this season, the most recent coming against Northwestern nine days ago. But they've failed to cover three of the last four games including their only SU, which was here at home to Buffalo. Seton Hall has double revenge here for a pair of losses LY that were by a combined five points. They were favored in both games. Seton Hall shows who's best! 10* Seton Hall

10* Under Virginia/Florida (8:00 ET): The Orange Bowl is expected to be pretty lopsided with Florida now a two-touchdown favorite over Virginia. Virginia did win its division (ACC Coastal) and will always hold a special place in our hearts as they were our 10* Game of the Year against Virginia Tech in the regular season finale. They got it done, winning 39-30 as a 1.5-point underdog. That win also snapped a 15-year losing skid to the Hokies. Unfortunately, the Hoos then got their doors blown off in the ACC Championship Game by Clemson, losing 62-17. So its easy to see why they are such big dogs for this game. 

Florida surprised me some by delivering a second straight 10-win season for HC Dan Mullen. The Gators' only two losses were to LSU and Georgia. They won their last three games by a total of 96 points. The QB situation is something to monitor here. While Kyle Trask completed over 67% of his attempts for 2,636 yards, there have been rumblings about Mullen wanting to "open things up" with Emory Jones.

Virginia's offense averaged 32.4 PPG (2nd most in school history) behind QB Bryce Perkins. I know their last five games all went Over, but look for the Cavaliers to struggle to move the ball here, much like they did vs. Clemson in the ACC Championship. Florida's defense allows just 14.4 PPG, has pitched three shutouts this year and has held five different opponents without a touchdown. Virginia doesn't really run the ball effectively, so if they become one-dimensional vs. Florida, they are in big trouble. Both teams scored a lot less away from home (Virginia just 22.5 PPG, Florida 26.5), so look for this one to stay Under. 10* Under Virginia/Florida

10* Over Nets/T'wolves (8:05 ET): Two games ago, Brooklyn put forth one of the most heinous shooting nights in league history, making only 26.9% of its field goal attempts. That was the lowest shooting percentage by any team in almost seven years. They made just EIGHT two-pointers, the fewest in a NBA game since 1950! While shooting was slightly better Saturday night in Houston, they still made only 40% from the field and failed to break 100 points (lost 108-98).

Speaking of heinous, Minnesota is 1-12 SU in December (2-10-1 ATS). The lone was by one point at Sacramento. As you might expect, the Timberwolves have had their fair share of shooting issues as well. The last six games have seen them shoot below 40% overall and the most points they've scored in any of those games is 106. As a result, the Under has hit in all six games.

While I wouldn't look to either of these teams for shooting tips, here's the thing. Both are due to start making some shots. This poor rash of shooting cannot possibly continue. I don't consider either to be a great defensive team. Brooklyn allows 113.6 PPG on the road while Minnesota gives up 114.9 PPG at home. On offense, both still average slightly more than 110 PPG. So this is a case where if we can just get back to "average," then the Over is assured. It was a 127-126 game when they met in Brooklyn back in October. Granted there was a lot more star power on the court back then. But this total is just too low even if the Twolves' starts join the Nets' Kyrie Irving on the bench. 10* Over Nets/T'wolves

8* Western Michigan (12:30 ET): If Western Michigan doesn't show up motivated for the First Responder Bowl on Monday afternoon (in Dallas), then I don't know what to say. They lost the regular season finale (as a 10-point favorite) at Northern Illinois, which cost them a chance to play for the MAC Championship. The Broncos were probably the best team in the MAC this year. They beat both teams that ended up in the Championship Game - Miami by 22 and Central Michigan by 16. They have both the Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year from the conference.

Western Kentucky went 3-9 SU last year. So not many people were expecting a bowl appearance in Tyson Helton's first season in Bowling Green. But the Hilltoppers improved all the way to 8-4 SU on the back of pulling five outright upsets, one of them 45-19 over Arkansas, which was ironic because that's where QB Ty Storey transfered from. I am surprised that WKU is favored here. They were a favorite just four times in the regular season, none of those against bowl teams (one was a FCS team). They faced only four bowl teams all year and went 2-2 SU in those games (beat Southern Miss & UAB).

Another motivating factor for Western Michigan here is their 1-8 SU record in bowls. They got embarrassed out in Idaho LY by BYU 47-18. I realize that the Broncos had just one win outside Kalamazoo this year, but I believe they are the better team here. Thus, getting points, I'm on board. They were an underdog in only four games in the regular season and the only one where they were getting more than 3.5 points was against Michigan State. Western Kentucky is just 4-12-1 ATS its L17 games as a favorite w/ eight outright losses.  Take the points. 8* Western Michigan 

7* Calgary (9:35 ET): The Pacific is the most wide open division in the NHL with several teams already having spent time at the top. Right now it's Vegas in first place, but you've got four teams within four points of them. Two of those four meet here. Vancouver has won four in a row, all at home, as they're looking good again. But right ahead of them is Calgary, who is off a very impressive 5-1 win at rival Edmonton Friday night. The money line "tells the story" here and I'm backing the Flames.

Part of the reason that the Canucks find themselves as such a prohibitive underdog for this matchup is the fact they just played last night. They outlasted the Kings, 3-2. Though they never trailed and even had a 2-0 lead after one period, it must be pointed out that Vancouver was outshot in the game 51-26. It took a "herculean" effort from goaltender Jacob Markstrom, who made a career-high 49 saves in the win. But on the road this club is giving up 3.3 goals per game. 

Though they're off a big win over their rival, don't expect the Flames to take this game lightly. Their previous homestand ended with three consecutive losses, so that's a streak they're certainly interested in ending. There's been only one prior meeting between these division rivals this season. It was here in Calgary and the Flames pulled off 3-0 shutout. They may not have to deal with Markstrom tonight with this being a B2B for the Canucks. 7* Calgary

10* Under Thunder/Raptors (6:05 ET): Last night saw Toronto get revenge for its Christmas Day loss as they went to Boston and beat the Celtics 113-97 as a seven-point underdog. Making that win all the more impressive is how short-handed the Raptors came into the game. Three of the team's top seven rotation players were out, including leading scorer Pascal Siakam. While Kyle Lowry said afterwards that the team "just doesn't care" about the injuries, this is admittedly a tough spot having to play a back to back, even at home. 

Speaking of surprises, Oklahoma City has done much better than advertised after losing both Russell Westbrook and Paul George in the offseason. They are currently 7th in the Western Conference, something that no one expected at the start of the season. The Thunder have won five of six including a two point win in Charlotte Friday night. 

This looks like a tough spot for both teams. Toronto is short-handed and playing in the second night of a back to back. Oklahoma City is playing its second road game in three nights. The Thunder have scored only 201 total points the L2 games and come in averaging just 102.6 PPG on the road for the season. The Raptors held Boston to just 97 points last night in an incredible effort. This has all the makings of a low-scoring game. 10* Under Thunder/Raptors

10* Over Raiders/Broncos (4:25 ET): For a 7-8 team that's technically still alive for the playoffs, Oakland absolutely reeks. The Silver and Black have been outscored by 105 points this year. Only four teams have worse point differentials and none of them have more than five wins. Three of the four have four wins or less. How the Raiders have been able to get to 7-8 can be explained by a 7-2 SU record in one-score games. That's right. They have not won a game by more than eight points all year. Ironically, their largest win came in Week 1 against Denver, the team they'll conclude the regular season against.

Running back Josh Jacobs has been ruled out of this game, not a great sign for a Raiders team that needs A LOT to go right on Sunday to make the playoffs. But even w/o Jacobs, the likely NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, the Raiders still put up 24 points last week against a good Chargers' defense. Jacobs' replacement, DeAndre Washington, ran for 85 yards on 23 carries last week. That was along with QB Carr completing 26 of his 30 passes. Carr has completed over 83% of his pass attempts against the Broncos the L2 years, all of those of resulting in Oakland wins. 

It was a 24-16 final when these teams met on Monday Night Football in Week 1. That was back when the Broncos were still starting Joe Flacco at QB. Now its rookie Drew Lock. The Denver offense has generally been better with Lock at the helm, including in 27-17 win right here at home last week. The Oakland defense gives up 6.2 yards per play and 26.9 PPG. Look for WR Courtland Sutton to have a big game here. The L6 meetings may have all stayed Under, but this one won't. 10* Over Raiders/Broncos

10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): HC Dan Quinn has improbably saved his job in Atlanta thanks to a 5-2 run down the stretch. (GM Thomas Dimitroff will be returning as well). While the decision by Falcons' owner Arthur Blank had to be a nice "late Christmas gift" for the Quinn and Dimitroff families, I think it saps a lot of the supposed motivation we were supposed to see from this team in Week 17. Before the decision was made on Saturday, I was reading a lot of Falcons backers that felt the motivation to preserve their coach's job would carry the team here.

Remember that one of Atlanta's two losses in these last seven games came to the team they facing in Week 17, that being Tampa Bay. The Bucs (7-8) have a better record than the Falcons (6-9) and looked every bit the better team back in Week 12 when they won 35-22 as a three-point underdog. For us, the Bucs were a signature *10* Ultimate Power release that day. The score was even a bit misleading as Tampa Bay missed THREE extra points and Atlanta scored a TD in garbage time.

While Atlanta seems to be getting a lot of credit for how its played in the second half of the season, the Bucs are the better team and have also improved during the same timeframe. Really, they should have a better record than 7-8 SU as they've outgained and outscored their opponents this season. Last week was a classic "false final" as they outgained the Texans by over 200 yds, but lost by a field goal thanks to FOUR James Winston interceptions (one returned for a TD). While Winston's 28 INT's lead the league, he also has 31 TD passes and leads the league in passing yards. Despite missing both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin last week, he still threw for 335 yards, so the absences hardly hurt the offense. My numbers suggest TB should be laying almost a touchdown here. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): Backing the team with the worst record in the league may not sound good on paper, but Cincinnati is "free and clear" here having already sewn up the #1 pick in next spring's Draft. Were they in a position where a win might hurt them (i.e. draft position), the tendency would be to lay off. But expect the Bengals to come out motivated for Week 17 against division rival Cleveland in what looks like a very winnable game. Meanwhile, the underachieving Browns may very well mail this one in. Take the points. 

Cincinnati almost won last week, but came up just short in overtime, losing at Miami 38-35. They had an improbable rally just to get to OT, scoring two touchdowns and two 2-pt conversions in the final 30 seconds to tie the game. QB Andy Dalton is still auditioning to be a starting QB for next year (likely somewhere else), so he won't be phoning it in here. Despite coming at 1-14 SU, the Bengals are better than you think as last week was their 8th loss by one score. Back in Week 14, they outgained the Browns by 118 yards (451-333) w/ a 27-17 edge in first downs, but lost 27-19 as Cleveland had an early pick-six. 

The Browns have been miserable as a favorite this year, a reflection of their disappointing season. They've lost four of the nine games in which they've been favored. Three of those four losses have been on the road. Two of those have been to backup quarterbacks and the other was by two scores at Arizona two weeks ago. Freddie Kitchens is in way over his head as a NFL head coach and was yet another poor hire by the Browns. 8* Cincinnati

8* Carolina (1:00 ET): New Orleans appears to be "peaking" at the right time as they've won five of their last six games to get to 12-3 SU. They still have a chance to earn a first round bye. In addition to obviously needing to win themselves, they would need either a loss by the Packers (unlikely) or by the 49ers. If both the 49ers and Packers were to lose, then the Saints could even move up to the #1 seed in the NFC. But because of these playoff scenarios, this line is inflated. I'm taking the points.

The Panthers' season has gone off the rails as they fired Ron Rivera (foolish) a few weeks back. That came after four straight losses and the streak has now hit seven under interim HC Perry Fewell. Last week was a horrific showing in Indianapolis as they lost 38-6 by giving up two special teams touchdowns. They were also -3 in turnovers. This is a different team than the one that should have beaten the Saints in New Orleans back in Week 12 (lost 34-31). Will Grier is now starting at QB as opposed to Kyle Allen. But still, this number is way too large. 

Interestingly enough, the Saints have lost outright as a division favorite of -6 or more each of the last two years in Week 17. Both losses came with them having clinched a playoff berth. Ironically, last year's loss was to a Carolina team that came in on a seven-game losing streak. While it may seem like the Saints are peaking now, they did trail Tennessee on the road 14-0 last week. Just too many points to lay in a NFL road game. 8* Carolina

8* Over Chargers/Chiefs (1:00 ET): This could be Philip Rivers final game as the QB of the Chargers. If this truly is it, then it comes in a manner all too familiar for him. The Chargers were a talented team this year, but simply failed to "get it done" in the "clutch." Last week's upset loss at home to the Raiders (24-17 as 6.5-pt chalk) dropped them to a mind-numbing 2-9 SU in one score games this season. Despite a 5-10 SU record, the Chargers have both outscored and outgained opponents this year. Whomever is the QB next year, this will be a better team.

Kansas City, having dominated the AFC West yet again, is headed to the playoffs. Seeding is still up in the air. They can still earn a first round bye w/ a win and Patriots loss. But seeing as New England is playing Miami at home, it's unlikely that scenario plays out. Still, the Chiefs do need to win here to avoid to falling to the #4 seed, which would happen if the Texans won and they lost. The Texans don't play until 4:00 ET, so KC won't know what that result is while this game is ongoing. So expect a strong start by the offense to try and put this one to bed. 

It's been KC's defense leading the charge in a 5-0 SU/ATS run since the bye week (Under also 5-0). They've given up an average of just 9.6 PPG and allowed only THREE touchdowns. The streak started with a 24-17 win over these Chargers, but the total for that game was much higher (51.5). We know what the Chiefs' offense is capable of, but the Chargers come in averaging a respectable 367.5 yards per game. They are capable of putting 20+ on the board, which would make this an easy Over. 8* Over Chargers/Chiefs

10* Ohio State (8:00 ET): One bad first half (Big 10 Champ Game vs. Wisconsin) and it seems as if everyone is flocking to get off the Ohio State bandwagon. That has me scratching my head as the Buckeyes were the best team in the country during the regular season, covering the spread by an average of 11.8 PPG, the highest mark of any team. I did NOT agree with the Buckeyes being moved down from #1 to #2 in the final CFP Rankings and think they now offer a tremendous value as an underdog (1st time all season) going for revenge against the team that embarrassed them in their last CFP appearance. Take the points. 

Now Clemson is not without its own merits. They are the defending National Champions and come in with the best ATS record in the country at 10-3 (covered 4 in a row). But it's difficult (for me) to look past the massive difference in strength of schedule that exists between them and Ohio State. The ACC was easily the weakest of the Power 5 conferences this year as no other team finished inside the top 40 of my own personal power rankings! The only Top 40 team Clemson faced was Texas A&M and that was early in the year at home. While the Tigers appeared to peak down the stretch, they were going up against some really depleted and overmatched opponents. 

You can go ahead and throw out that 1H Ohio State played vs. Wisconsin. It was a really tough spot for the Buckeyes as they went into the game not even needing to win to make the playoff. The fact they still ended up winning by double digits is quite impressive. Nine of Ohio State's wins this year came against teams that are currently in my Top 40 and remember they won every game by double digits. Compare that to the one Top 40 win Clemson has. Once I saw the Buckeyes open as the underdog, I knew this had to be my top bowl selection. The only time they have been a dog since 2014 was LY's game vs. Michigan, which they ended up winning 62-39. The program has won outright the L7 times its been a dog! 10* Ohio State

10* Brooklyn (8:05 ET): Both teams are off results they'd just as soon forget. The Rockets lost on X-Mas Day to the suddenly resurgent Warriors, 116-104, as an 11.5-point favorite. The following night saw the Nets lost at home to the sorry Knicks, 94-82 as seven-point chalk. Something will have to give here as both teams are perfect ATS on the year when coming off a DD loss. Brooklyn is 5-0 after losing by 10 or more while Houston is 3-0 vs. the number. 

I'm taking the points, even though the Nets remain short-handed. Kyrie Irving isn't even accompanying the team on this road trip and Caris LeVert is still out as well, even though he's reportedly "getting closer" to returning. Spencer Dinwiddie (who has been a godsend for this team amidst all the absences) said it best when he said it was a case of "too mugh egg nog" for the Nets Thursday night. They shot 26.9% from the field, which was the lowest FG% by any NBA team in almost seven years. Their eight two-point field goals were the fewest made in a game since 1950. Needless to say, the Nets are going to shoot a whole heck of a lot better tonight. 

Houston isn't any "great shakes" defensively as they are a mediocre 16th in efficiency. That's three spots lower than Brooklyn. Obviously, the Rockets offense is a concern for the Nets. But Houston, factoring out James Harden, was also victimized by poor shooting in the last game. They made only 37.0% against the Warriors w/ players not named "Harden" combining to miss 54 of 82 attempts. While the Rockets' shooting figures to improve just like the Nets, I just don't see them running away w/ this one, especially w/ a back to back in New Orleans looming tomorrow night. 10* Brooklyn

6* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): I mentioned this in the analysis the last time I played the Lightning, but this team appears to be the proverbial "sleeping giant." That last play came Monday when Tampa Bay hosted Florida. It ended up being a convincing 6-1 victory right here at Amalie Arena. That was the first of what will be six consecutive games vs. Atlantic Division opponents and the Lightning took full advantage of the four power play opportunities they were afforded, scoring three times when having the man advantage. 

Part of the reason I feel the Lightning are a "sleeping giant" should be obvious. This club set a NHL record for regular season wins just last year (62). So you know what we're dealing with. The fact they are languishing in sixth place in the Atlantic is downright shocking, but keep in mind they also have a +13 YTD goal differential, which is better than every other team in the division besides first place Boston. I still consider TB one of the top teams in the entire Eastern Conference, especially at home where they average an impressive 3.9 goals per game. 

Montreal is the next division opponent Tampa will face. The Habs are currently third in the Atlantic, but only two points ahead of the Lightning. So TB's current standing in the division is a real thin line. Two points tonight could elevate them into a third place tie. Montreal is off a 6-2 win at Winnipeg Monday night, but is just 4-11 SU this year after a game in which it tallied 4+ goals. This is also their fifth straight road game after playing four straight in Western Canada. The Canadiens have lost 7 of 9 matchups to the Lightning the L3 seasons including all four on the road. 6* Tampa Bay

10* Boise State (6:00 ET): Cal State Northridge has made one of the more curious "turnarounds" over the last month or so. The Matadors are by no means a "good team." That can easily be confirmed by their poor 3-10 SU record. But they have been cashing tickets at the betting window recently. Since starting 0-4 ATS, they've come back to cover six of their last seven games and that doesn't even include an 85-50 blowout of San Francisco State (non-board team) earlier in the week. 

But I don't look for this ATS surge to continue. My own power rankings say tonight's line vs. Boise State is WAY off. Boise State is 8-2 ATS its last 10 games and is coming off a strong showing in Hawaii in the Diamond Head Classic over Christmas. After losing the first game (to Georgia Tech), the Broncos ended up finishing fifth in the tournament by beating UTEP and Portland. Maybe its because they just played three games in four days. But bettors aren't taking Boise State seriously enough in my opinion. 

This should be an easy double digit win for the home team. They are 5-1 SU in Boise, outscoring opponents by an impressive 24.5 PPG. CS-Northridge is 1-8 SU away from home and giving up 83.9 PPG in those contests. While the Matadors just got All-American Lamine Diane back from suspension, Boise State just added a transfer to its ranks as Abu Kigab debuted in Hawaii. Cal State Northridge has lost 52 of the last 59 times it has been an underdog. 10* Boise State

8* Notre Dame (12:00 ET): I get the sense coming out of South Bend that the Fighting Irish faithful view the 2019 season, Brian Kelly's 10th leading the program, as a step back. I suppose that makes sense. Notre Dame was in the CFP last year, though that certainly didn't end well. But the Irish did go 10-2 SU this year. One of those losses was to Georgia and they covered the spread. The other was to Michigan, which was NOT a good performance, but that game was also played in a driving rainstorm. Since going down to the Wolverines, ND has won five in a row and is 4-1 ATS. 

Iowa State is looking to finish 8-5 SU for a third straight year under HC Matt Campbell. Four of their five losses this year were by a TD or less. They did spend a good part of the season in the Top 25, but also lost three of their last five games to fall out of the rankings. Ranked opponents were generally the ones that gave the Cyclones trouble as they lost 2 of 3 such games and that doesn't even include a loss to Baylor, who was not ranked at the time. The one win over a ranked opponent was Texas, who did not finish the year in the Top 25.

Notre Dame is #15, which is where they should be. Interesting is that both of the Fighting Irish's losses came as dogs. They were a perfect 10-0 SU as favorites, covering the spread in all but three of those games. While ISU's record as a dog (14-4 ATS w/ six outright wins L3 yrs) must be respected, I believe this line should be closer to a touchdown than a field goal. Because they've struggled in bowls recently, I expect Notre Dame to come out motivated for this one. 8* Notre Dame

8* Central Michigan (12:00 ET): I am absolutely on board with the notion that Purdue is better than its record. The KenPom ratings have the Boilermakers rated as the 13th best team in the country while I've got them at #22 in my own power ratings. This despite them already having five losses, the most recent coming exactly one week ago to Butler (on a neutral court). But they're also coming in way overvalued for today's tilt with Central Michigan. I'm taking the points.

Central Michigan has the same 7-5 SU record as Purdue. Obviously, they have not faced the same level of competition. But they should have handed then-unbeaten DePaul its first loss back on November 26th as they led by double digits at halftime (on the road!) only to fail to even cover the DD spread! More recently, the Chippewas have lost three straight, all on the road. But after a 10-day break, I think they're ready to compete. Those L3 road games were all played within a 10-day span. 

Central Michigan can definitely score as they average 87.9 PPG, which is 3rd most in the entire country. Furthermore, they are top 10 in adjusted tempo, so they play fast. There have been a couple "clunkers" from the Chips (against Minnesota & Valpo) and Purdue is very good defensively. But I still see the underdog scoring enough to stay within what is a very generous number. Purdue is only 314th in the country in points per game and their 2nd leading scorer is dealing with a concussion. 8* Central Michigan

7* Colorado (8:05 ET): The Avalanche have a legit claim to call themselves the best team in the Western Conference. While they are five points back of the defending Stanley Cup Champion Blues, whom they've struggled against head to head, no other team in the West has more points than the Avs' 49. What sets Colorado apart though is their YTD goal differential of +31. It's easily the best in the West w/ St. Louis (+19) #2. I think it'll be an easy two points for the home team in Denver tonight. 

While Colorado is in second place in the Central Division, Minnesota is second from the bottom. The Wild can be a formidable club at home where their record is 10-2-3 SU. But on the road, they are just 8-13-2 SU. Those 13 regulation losses are tied for most in the league coming into tonight. Look no further than the last two games for evidence of the Wild's inconsistency. While they shut out Calgary 3-0 on Monday, that came on the heels of a 6-0 loss to Winnipeg. Both games were at home.

The Avalanche won their last game 7-3 against Vegas and that was on the road. They should be motivated coming into tonight as prior to beating the Golden Knights, they'd dropped B2B home games. Making the Avs' season all the more impressive is that they've had to deal with lots of injuries. But they are pretty healthy now and should overwhelm an opponent giving up 3.7 goals per game on the road. The Avs average 3.7 gpg at home. 7* Colorado

analysis soon

10* Orlando (7:05 ET): The Magic have already beaten the Sixers once this year and they were actually favored in that game. Now they're an underdog and catching Philadelphia at what looks to be a very opportune time. Philly just played one of its best games of the year as they blew out the Bucks on X-Mas Day. Can you say letdown? Take the points. 

The 121-109 win over Milwaukee was the Sixers' third consecutive win and cover. They are now 23-10 SU, which is the 4th best record in what is rapidly becoming a "top heavy" Eastern Conference. But while beating the Bucks was very impressive (led by as many as 29!), the win came at home where the Sixers are now 16-2 SU. But on the road, they have a losing record (7-8 SU). I can all but guarantee that we won't seeing a repeat of the Sixers' shooting on Christmas. They hit a franchise record 21 three-pointers. 

We know Orlando can play defense as they are allowing just 104.9 PPG, which is third fewest in the entire NBA. They held the Bulls under 40% from the field in Monday's 103-95 victory. That snapped a three-game losing skid and was just the second win for the Magic in their L8 games. But this is a pretty clear "ambush spot" from where I sit. Leading scorer Nikola Vucevic is back in the lineup and he makes this a pretty formidable team. 10* Orlando

10* Over Cavs/Celtics (4:05 ET): These teams met roughly three weeks ago, right here in Boston, and the Celtics rolled to a 110-88 win and cover as 13-point favorites. There really is no reason to expect this game will go much differently, although the Celtics are at the minor disadvantage of having played on X-Mas. Still though, this is a game they "should" win. But laying this many points isn't something I'd typically advise. What I would advise though is to play the Over. 

In that last meeting, Cleveland had an awful shooting night, making only 39.6% of their field goal attempts including 7 of 31 from three-point range. Look for them to shoot better here. For the first time all season, the Cavs have won three straight. Now all three wins were at home, close and against bad teams. But at least they have some of the dreaded "momentum" (still hate that word!) coming into this December rematch. 

The problem Cleveland will have though is the defensive end. The only other time the Cavs took the court on 3+ days rest so far this season, they wound up giving up 127 points to a Detroit team that is hardly an offensive juggernaut. They are 29th in the league in defensive efficiency. Boston is #5 in offensive efficiency and has averaged 113.8 points over its last five games. They should not have much difficulty putting points on the board in this one. They shoot 47.5% overall/38.6% from three/84% from the FT line at home. 10* Over Cavs/Celtics

8* Michigan State (3:20 ET): There's no denying that Michigan State underachieved this year. That can be quickly confirmed by their 3-9 ATS record. But I'm still surprised to see Sparty laying such a short number in this year's Pinstripe Bowl to a clearly inferior Wake Forest side. I still consider Mark Dantonio's team to be a top 30 team (in the country) despite its pedestrian 6-6 SU mark. There are issues offensively, but the same can be said for their opponent, who is dealing with uncertainty at QB and a depleted receiving corps. I'm going to lay the short number here.

Wake Forest has won and covered three straight bowl games under HC Dave Clawson. But there is some uncertainty over who will be starting at QB in the Pinstripe Bowl after Jamie Newman got hurt in the final regular season game. If Newman can't go, it will be Sam Hartman under center. Regardless if it's Newman or Hartman, the Wake Forest receiving corps has been hit hard by injuries this year. All the injuries resulted in the Demon Deacons losing three of their last four games. They haven't won a game outside of Winston-Salem since beating Boston College 27-24 in the final weekend of September. Their only other road win was against Rice. 

The Pinstripe Bowl is unique in that it is played in cold weather (NYC). Sure enough, that's led to the Big 10 (more accustomed to the cold) going 4-1 SU/ATS vs. the ACC in the bowl's short history, the only loss coming in overtime. The Big 10 is clearly better than the ACC this year. While their offense struggles, the Spartans have a massive defensive edge here as WF gives up nearly 35 PPG away from home. Being in a bowl was clearly important for MSU as they won their final two regular season games to get here. Sparty is 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 pts the L3 seasons. WF is 1-5 SU/2-4 ATS as an underdog in the same price range. 8* Michigan State

10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): Tip your cap to the Nets, who have managed to stay relevant despite lengthy injury absences from both Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert. Of course, Kevin Durant hasn't even suited up this season, but that was expected when he was signed. Still, when Irving and Durant were both brought in, there was a lot of internal optimism from the franchise. Being 7th in the Eastern Conference probably isn't want they had in mind, but given the injuries, it's not all that bad. This team should still easily make the playoffs. 

The Knicks lost out on both Irving and Durant in free agency and when then happened, the team was pretty much resigned to another losing year. Sure enough, New York comes in at 7-24 SU. Only the Hawks have a worse record and point differential. The Knicks don't score much (tied for last at 103.5 PPG) nor do they play very good defense. They're currently on a three-game losing skid that has seen them allow an average of 124.3 PPG. 

The emergence of Spencer Dinwiddie has been huge for the Nets as he's come in and averaged 26.1 PPG on 44.5% shooting as a starter. He's scored 20+ points in 16 of his last 18 games including a career-best seven in a row. Brooklyn is 8-3 ATS its L11 games and clearly superior to their NY rivals. The Knicks are a miserable 3-12 SU on the road, 0-8 SU in division games and 0-6 ATS when playing with exactly two days rest. The Nets should have no problem winning this game by a big margin. 10* Brooklyn

10* Under Wizards/Pistons (7:05 ET): Washington has one of the more interesting statistical profiles in the league. They are 4th in offensive efficiency (trailing only "heavyweight teams" Dallas, Milwaukee and Houston) but dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency. That's simply not a "winning formula," so it's not a surprise to me that they are stuck near the bottom of the Eastern Conference with a 9-20 SU record. Of course, given the statistical profile, it's also not a surprise to see that the Wizards are one of the top Over teams (17-11-1). 

Detroit again finds itself mired in mediocrity. They are clearly better than the worst teams in the Eastern Conference, but also aren't nearly good enough to win a playoff series. Right now, just making the playoffs seems unlikely as the Pistons are 11-20 SU, which is barely better than the Wizards! They've lost five in a row (0-5 ATS as well) and have been outscored by over 15 PPG during that stretch. 

The Pistons' recent defensive efforts leave a lot to be desired. Given that and who they are facing tonight, you might be thinking Over is the right call. But O/U lines, such as this one, are starting to get a bit high for Wizards games. A big reason for tonight's high O/U line is that these teams just met 10 days ago here in Detroit and it was a ridiculous shooting night by both sides. Washington ended up winning 133-119. Don't expect anything like that here as the teams are likely to come out rusty after the holiday break. The dichotomy of "all offense, no defense" for the Wizards has to tighten moving forward. Oddsmakers aren't going to let this team keep going Over "all the time."  10* Under Wizards/Pistons

8* Miami FL (4:00 ET): Miami does not have a good recent history in bowl games. They've gone 1-8 ATS in their last nine, including last year's complete "no-show" vs. Wisconsin (lost 35-3). This year, "The U" heads to Shreveport, LA for what will be a de facto road game against Louisiana Tech in the Independence Bowl. Despite that history of failing to "get up" for bowl games, I am shocked to see how this number has been bet down so much. The Hurricanes are simply more talented than their opponent, which played the weakest schedule in all of the FBS. Yes, some players have elected to sit this one out for Miami (preparing for NFL Draft), but I believe the holdovers will indeed "show up" Thursday afternoon. Lay the points. 

I thought Miami would contend for the ACC's Coastal Division title. Interestingly enough, they did defeat division champ Virginia 17-9 in a game they were favored to win! They also easily could have beaten the team favored to win this year's Orange Bowl, that being #9 Florida, but blew a 4Q lead in that one (season opener). Three terrible outright losses down to the stretch (Ga Tech, FIU, Duke) definitely took the shine off Manny Diaz's team. But they still have a tremendous defense that ranked 13th in the country in yards allowed (307.6 per game). Louisiana Tech simply did not face a team this talented all year w/ the possible exception of Texas, who crushed them by 31 points.

La Tech's recent bowl history is good as they have won five straight. But the Bulldogs also have to shake off some disappointment from the way they ended the regular season. QB J'Mar Smith was among the key suspensions down the stretch that cost this team the chance to play in the C-USA Title Game. The suspended players are all back, but it's difficult to look past the fact that La Tech is just 2-3 SU vs. bowl teams w/ those wins coming over FIU and Southern Miss. Also, the defense is going to be without its top cornerback as he's sitting out for the Draft. I think the Bulldogs' offense is going to struggle against this Miami defense and the undervalued favorite (which should be laying double digits) is going to come through  8* Miami FL

8* Denver (10:35 ET): They don't have the star power of many of their Western Conference contemporaries, but the Nuggets storm into Christmas night on a seven-game win streak and in second place, which is right where they finished last year. I think the most surprising thing about the team this year has been its defense, which leads the league by giving up just 102.1 PPG. They are big favorites here at home vs. New Orleans, but for good reason. Lay the points. 

The Pelicans have had a dreadful 1st half, which has included a 13-game losing streak. They snapped that last week with a 107-99 win at Minnesota, a team dealing w/ its own DD losing skid currently. Then after a four-point loss at Golden State, NO won again, surprising Portland Monday as six-point dogs, 102-94. The bad news here for the Pelicans is that they are 0-4 SU/ATS this season coming off a SU win as a dog. This will also be their 4th straight game on the road. 

Denver is not an easy place to play either. The Nuggets have a 13-3 SU home record and tighten up their already stout defense a little more here. Believe it or not, Denver has some revenge here for an Opening Night loss in the Big Easy. It's really surprising to see that they are 0-5 ATS vs. the Pelicans since the start of last season with three outright defeats. Look for that streak to come to a resounding end tonight as the Pelicans are no match for the vastly superior Nuggets. New Orleans allows the most points per game in the Western Conference. 8* Denver

10* LA Lakers (8:00 ET): These teams haven't met since Opening Night when the Clippers dealt the Lakers a 122-112 defeat. I played the Clips in that one, stating I was unconvinced that the Lakers could emerge the top team in the Western Conference. While I was right about the game, I was wrong about the Lakers' prospects as they come into X-Mas leading the West w/ a 24-6 record. That said, they are currently on a season-worst three-game losing streak (LeBron sat Sunday's game vs. Denver). With LeBron obviously playing I have the Lakers getting it done in this revenge spot. 

The Clippers are currently 4th in the West with a 22-10 record. They have a similar YTD point differential to the Lakers and another thing they have in common is some recent stumbles. The Clips have dropped three of five, including a 118-112 decision at OKC on Sunday. Also like the Lakers, this team is much better when both of its superstars - Kawhi Leonard and Paul George - both play (11-3 SU in those games). But I'm not convinced that they are as good as the Lakers. 

The fact that the Lakers have lost three in a row is pretty significant in that it should have them really motivated (as if they needed any extra motivation) for this X-Mas Day game. Plus there's the revenge angle. Following the Opening Night loss to the Clippers, the Lakers would go on to win 24 of their next 26 games. I wouldn't put much stock into the three-game losing streak as one of the losses came against Milwaukee and another w/o LeBron. The Lakers rate higher than the Clippers in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Lay the short number. 10* LA Lakers

10* Under Bucks/Sixers (2:35 ET): Christmas is widely considered to be the time we can start making conclusions about the NBA season. At the moment, I don't think there's any debating that Milwaukee is the best team in the league right now. After posting a NBA-high 60 regular season wins LY, the Bucks are well on their way to surpassing that mark in 2020 as they've started 27-4 and have won 20 of their last 21 games. The thing is they have been dominant at BOTH ends of the floor, ranking 2nd in offensive efficiency (behind only Dallas) and 1st in defensive efficency (by a wide margin).

Philadelphia figures to be in the mix for the #4-#6 seed in the Eastern Conference. I have them below not just Milwaukee, but Boston and Toronto as well. After suffering three losses in a row, including their first two of the year at home, the Sixers come into X-Mas off B2B wins. They posted 125 pts in each of them, but note those came against Washington and Detroit. The former is dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. But the 76ers do have to be respected at the defensive end where they rank #7 in defensive efficiency.

It's the offensive end where Philly can sometimes be pretty pedestrian. They are a mediocre 14th in offensive efficiency. Look no further than last week's loss to Miami (where I cashed the Under) for evidence of this team's offensive shortcomings. Facing a zone, they scored just 104 pts. The games before & after that, they were held below 100. Milwaukee is deadly at the offensive end, but the fact the 76ers allow just 101.1 PPG at home must be respected. That's #1 in the league among home teams. Milwaukee has held the L4 opponents that weren't Dallas to 108 or less. 10* Under Bucks/Sixers

10* Minnesota (8:15 ET): Green Bay may very well end up winning this division, but in the opinion of myself and many others, Minnesota is the best team in the NFC North. The Vikings have a top four point differential in the league entering Week 16 (+119), more than double that of the Packers (+47). In the first head to head meeting (back in Week 2), which was at Lambeau Field, Green Bay did win 21-16. But the Vikings outgained them 7.0 to 4.9 on a per play basis, a huge margin for any game, let alone for the loser. At home (where they're a perfect 6-0 SU), look for the Vikings to get their revenge Monday night. 

Green Bay winning that first meeting in spite of the yard per play differential is somewhat emblematic of the kind of "fluky" season that they are having. Despite being 11-3, they've been outgained on both a per game and per play basis. That's very rare. They are also a very fortunate 7-1 SU in games decided by eight points or less. That YTD point differential is not what you'd expect from an 11-3 team. There have been a number of games throughout the year where the Packers probably did not "deserve" to win, but did. One of them was a Monday night game at Detroit where they trailed nearly the entire game but won 23-22. 

The Vikings are the league's only undefeated team at home. They aren't just winning these home games either; they're blowing teams out by an average margin of 13.5 PPG. Now a lot will be made of Kirk Cousins' 0-8 ATS record on MNF and the fact he'll be without RB Dalvin Cook here. But Green Bay is just 2-6 ATS its last eight appearances on MNF. Cousins is also 13-3 ATS as a single digit favorite, including 8-1 ATS at home, since joining the Vikings. Green Bay has not won here at U.S. Bank Stadium since it opened in 2016. Bottom line is the Vikings are the better team here. 10* Minnesota 

8* Under Jazz/Heat (7:35 ET): This number isn't nearly as high as the other two matchups in this package, but I still like the Under here as Miami's recent rash of high-scoring games should come to a halt here. It's all about the opponent as Utah plays slow (17th in pace) and is also near the top of the league in fewest number of points allowed per game (106.3). Surprisingly, Miami plays at an even slower pace and they aren't far behind the Jazz in terms of PPG allowed. Let's make it 3 for 3 with Unders tonight! 

For some, the Heat have gone Over in seven straight games, though there were a couple times in that stretch where if you bet the early number, you could have cashed an Under. (I did that in their game vs. Philadelphia last Weds). Still, it's been a hot shooting stretch (pun intended!) for the Heat, culminating in them making 55.8% of their shots against the Knicks Saturday night. The Jazz will not be so generous. Their opponents are hitting just 44.2% for the year. 

Utah doesn't average a ton of points itself and their scoring average on the road is just 105.8, one of the lowest in the league. Miami is really strong defensively at home, permitting just 104.7 PPG, a big reason for their 12-1 SU record here. Utah also shot well in its last game (52.0 FG%) but that was against Charlotte in a daytime tip. The Jazz are coming off five straight games vs. sub-.500 foes, so they may not be ready for the step up in class that awaits them tonight. 8* Under Jazz/Heat 

10* Under Wizards/Knicks (7:05 ET): Wizards games - on average - remain the highest scoring in the league at a whopping 239.3 PPG. I can't remember the last time a team saw its games average that many points over the course of a full season. The Wiz currently rank 4th in the league in offensive efficiency and dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency. I think the ridiculous amount of scoring we're seeing in their games is due for a downturn as we get set to hit the New Year. Take the Under in this one. 

Tonight's opponent happens to be the lowest scoring team in the NBA, that being the Knicks, who come in averaging a scant 103.1 PPG. While they are 28th in defensive efficiency, the Knicks also rank 28th in offensive efficiency. Take away a shocking 143 point effort against the inept Hawks the last time the Knicks took the floor here at MSG and the offensive numbers get even uglier. They shot just 40.2% from the field against Milwaukee on Saturday. 

With two of the bottom three teams in defensive efficiency meeting here, you do have to recognize the potential for lots of points to be scored. But that's built into the line, which as it stands would be the highest O/U for any Knicks game this season. The Under is already 5-1 for them when the total is 220 pts or higher. Washington has not shot the ball well recently either. That gets counteracted by the fact they play at a very fast tempo, however, New York ranks just 26th in that metric. So expect this to be a "slower" than usual game for the Wiz. 10* Under Wizards/Knicks

8* Under Hawks/Cavaliers (7:05 ET): Yet another total that is too high. Now I recognize that these teams have gone Over the last six times they've met. However, we are also looking at the #26 (Cleveland) and #30 (Atlanta) teams in offensive efficiency here. Cleveland is the second lowest scoring team in the NBA at 103.9 PPG (ahead of only the Knicks), so their games don't even come close to averaging what the total is here. Atlanta games, on average, also fall short of this number. Take the Under here.

Cleveland has had three days off to savor what is just its second win streak of the year. They are coming off wins over Charlotte and Memphis, both here at home. The Charlotte game was really low scoring, a 100-98 final, even though the Cavs shot a season-high 54.1% from the field. They play at a really slow pace (25th in adj tempo) so shooting well, which they rarely do anyway, hardly matters. But the encouraging sign for the Cavs has been their improved defense as they held both the Hornets and Grizzlies to just over 40.0% from the field.

Atlanta has lost seven in a row and can be just dreadful at times defensively. They did recently allow the Knicks to score 143 points in an unforgivable performance, but don't look for history to repeat itself here. Leading scorer John Collins, his 25-game suspension served, is expected back tonight for the Hawks. But him coming in and playing well seems far-fetched. The Cavs have seen the Under hit in all four home games w/ a total of 220 or higher this year and they are 4-0 Under playing with two days rest. Atlanta shoots a league-worst 31.9% from three-point range. 8* Under Hawks/Cavaliers

7* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): One of things I find to be most perplexing this NHL season has been the failure of the Lightning to ascend in the Atlantic Division. After all, this was a club that set a record last year with 62 regular season wins. We all remember their unceremonious 1st round exit at the hands of Columbus though and perhaps that's had a "carryover effect" because right now TB is only sixth in the division with just 38 points. But, even after B2B losses (to the Stars & Capitals), I'm not about to "give up" on this team. Look for them to get two points tonight in this all-Sunshine State matchup.

Florida is one of the teams currently ahead of the Lightning in the Atlantic. They've won three straight and have 41 points. The offense is humming right now with 17 goals scored during the win streak. However, let's not get tricked by a small sample size. Prior to this win streak, the Panthers had lost 7 of 10. While they do rank near the top of the league in goals scored for the year, this team also isn't shy about giving up its fair share as well. In 15 road games, the Panthers have been outscored due to giving up an average of 3.53 goals per game. Only eight teams are allowing more goals per game on the road. 

Tampa Bay has no problem scoring at home. In fact, they lead the league in that department with an average of 3.83 goals per game. These B2B losses that they've suffered are some real "head-scratchers" as they outshot Dallas 48-20 (lost in OT) and then were 0 for 7 on the power play against Washington, which included a 2-man advantage in the third period when the game was tied. (Lightning lead the league on the PP). Florida needed 42 saves from backup goalie Driedger to beat Carolina its last time out. Last time these teams played was two weeks ago and TB won a low-scoring game (2-1) in Miami. It was their eighth time beating the Panthers in the last nine tries. 7* Tampa Bay

10* Georgia State (7:00 ET): After an 8-0 start to the year, SMU has now lost B2B games. The most recent was a double overtime affair at Georgia. All three of the Mustangs' "true" road games have been decided by four points or less. While they do return to Dallas for this last game before X-Mas, the last time SMU played here at home, they got beat 91-74 by a Georgetown team that was on the verge of being depleted by the transfer portal. Looking at the early line movement, I think people are selling on the notion of SMU losing three straight. I remain a little more skeptical of them. 

Georgia State comes in on a seven-game win streak. They are also 8-2 ATS this season including a perfect 4-0 ATS as underdogs. The Panthers have also lost to Georgetown, but their game was closer (lost by only eight) and it was on the road. They haven't lost since falling to the Hoyas. The only other two losses were to Duke and by four at College of Charleston. An underdog that averages over 80 PPG is very attractive. The Panthers have covered all five "true" road games as well. 

In their last game, Georgia State held Texas State to 36.5% shooting, which shows they can play some defense as well. That was their second straight win to open conference play and right now they should probably be considered the favorites to win the Sun Belt. The Panthers play at a very fast pace, rank third in the country in three-point percentage (41.2), don't turn it over much and are efficient in rebounding and at the FT line. This is a very live dog against a SMU team that really hasn't beaten any opponent of real consequence. 10* Georgia State

10* Over Nuggets/Lakers (9:35 ET): This is a golden opportunity for Denver as they face the Lakers tonight and there's no LeBron James. The Lakers want you to believe that the decision not to play James tonight has nothing to do with "load management," but the reality is they have a X-Mas day game coming up against the Clippers that I'm sure has their attention. They come into this game having dropped two in a row after losing only once in their previous 18 games. They are also 0-4 ATS L4. But now they're back home for just the second time since December 1st. 

Denver has won five straight, but all of those wins were at home. This continues to be one of the best defensive teams in the league as they allow a league-low 101.7 PPG. Perhaps even more impressive is that over the last 15 games, the Nuggets have held every opponent but one to 105 points or less. The most they've allowed during the entire stretch is 108! The Nuggets are 19-8 Under in all games this season, including 11-1 when facing a team with a winning record. 

The top Under team in the league facing the LeBron-less Lakers has resulted in a very low total by modern NBA standards. Most Denver games aren't too far off from this total, but for the Lakers it's a low number. LA has gone Under three striaght games, but two of those had totals of at least 227 points. Yes, the Under hit in Denver earlier this month, 105-96 Lakers win. While James is out, Kyle Kuzma is expected to return here for the Lakers. Look for this one to sneak Over. 10* Over Nuggets/Lakers

8* Chicago (8:20 ET): The Bears saw their already slim playoff hopes dashed last week and to make matters worse it came at the hands of old nemesis Aaron Rodgers. At the start of the season, I called the Bears a prime candidate to regress and regress they have as they've dropped from 12 to 7 wins (w/ two games still to play). But in spite of said regression, not everything is bad in the Windy City. They've got a defense that's still giving up only 18.1 PPG. While they may have lost 21-13 to the Packers last week, the Bears actually finished with a 415-292 edge in total yards and had eight more first downs. It was a -3 turnover margin that bit them in the end.

Kansas City has won the AFC West again and is just looking to improve its playoff position these last two weeks. As a division champ, they could still finish anywhere from the #1 to #4 seed. A first round bye, which the top two seeds get, is looking less likely after New England's win Saturday. But still this is a team that obviously must be respected as they come in riding a four-game win streak, during which they've even played some defense! The last four opponents have scored a combined 45 points, a big reason why the Chiefs are also 4-0 ATS during that stretch. 

In taking the points here, there obviously is a bit of concern over whether or not the Bears' offense will be able to "keep up" with the Chiefs. But I expect QB Mitchell Trubisky, who was infamously drafted ahead of Patrick Mahomes (and DeShaun Watson), to come out motivated for the final home game. Trubisky has played better down the stretch and even owns the NFL's longest active streak of five games without an interception. He's also 7-2 ATS in his career in primetime games. Don't discount the ability of the Bears' defense to keep KC's offense in check either. Then there's the homefield advantage as the L3 seasons have seen Chicago go 15-8 ATS at Soldier Field, including 6-1-1 ATS when getting points. This spread was bet up and is now simply too high, having hit a key number. 8* Chicago

10* LA Chargers (4:05 ET): Looking at the AFC West standings, something immediately jumps out to me. No, I'm not talking about the fact that the Chiefs have already clinched another division title. It's the fact that the Raiders, with a -112 YTD point differential, are somehow still in second place. Meanwhile, the Chargers are in last place despite having actually outscored opponents this season. LA can at least pull even with Oakland in the standings (were they to win this week), and I think they will. I'll lay the points as the Chargers are clearly the superior team here despite having one less win coming in. 

Last week's game was all too emblematic of the kind of season the Chargers are having. They basically had the same number of total yards as the Vikings (345-344). But SEVEN turnovers resulted in a 39-10 loss. Another game worth pointing to is what happened the first time they faced the Raiders. That game, which took place on a Thursday night, saw LA lose the turnover battle 3-0. They outgained the Raiders and had eight more first downs. But if you can't protect the football, you're not going to win in this league. Still, last week was the first time all year that the Chargers lost a game by more than a touchdown. 

Oakland was once 6-4 and getting talked up as a potential playoff darkhorse. Since that time, the Silver and Black have gotten badly exposed, losing four straight. Three of those losses were by a combined 83 points. Then came last week's gag job vs. Jacksonville, the final game they'll ever play in Oakland. I was on the Jaguars, noting the Raiders' poor point differential, which by the way now is 4th worst in the league. This is a really bad team as five of their eight losses have been by at least 18 points. 10* LA Chargers

8* Under Marshall/N Iowa (2:00 ET):  Not many teams have exceeded expectations more than Northern Iowa has as the Panthers are not only 10-1 straight up, but also 8-1 against the spread. There have been two games - against South Carolina & Colorado - where the Panthers were underdogs and they won the game outright. But UNI's pointspread prowess is not my primary concern in this one. Rather it's the streak that their opponent is on. Marshall comes in having gone Over in six straight despite playing some good defense. I look for this game to be lower scoring than anticipated. 

Marshall has won three in row, scoring 86 or more points in every game. But all three games were against "lesser competition," such as Bluefield State (non-DI), Morehead State and Eastern Kentucky. I wouldn't call the Thundering Herd a great offensive team as they actually rank outside the top 200 in offensive efficiency per KenPom. But they are playing at one of the 10 fastest tempos in the country. Still, they also are holding opponents under 40% shooting for the year. The L3 games have all been among their top four highest scoring outputs to date. I'll call for a downturn in offensive production this afternoon on the road. 

Northern Iowa has gone Over three straight times itself, but they've also been off for 10 days, which could lead to some rusty shooting at the outset here. Against some of the better teams they've played so far, the Panthers have struggled to shoot anyway. It was arguably the four weakest opponents that they racked up big offensive numbers against. But they - like Marshall - are also holding teams to a low FG% (40.2 for the year). This is the highest O/U line for any UNI game this season as well and by a pretty comfortable margin. 8* Under Marshall/N Iowa

10* Over Steelers/Jets (1:00 ET): Obviously, you shouldn't expect this game to turn into any kind of shootout. But the total is too low in my opinion and I'll be playing the Over. Yes, that attempt failed in the Steelers' game last week against the Bills. But it certainly had its chances to go Over. Pittsburgh QB Devlin Hodges had two chances to tie the game, but threw interceptions in the end zone both times. Had he directed a game-tying drive, then the game would have gone to overtime (duh!) and then gone Over had either team simply kicked a field goal. This time, the Under streak for Pittsburgh (currently six games) ends. 

The Jets, save for the disastrous effort a few weeks back at Cincinnati, have been a decent offensive team as long as Sam Darnold is in at QB. They've scored at least 21 points in five of their last six games. Remember, I had a big Over play with them when they faced a Redskins team that was on an Under streak similar to the one the Steelers find themselves on now. The Jets giving up 42 points last week can probably be chalked up to "facing the Ravens," but I still think it's a better matchup for Pittsburgh than it was vs. Buffalo last week. 

The 10 points Pittsburgh scored last week marked their third fewest in a game all season. The Over is 5-2 when they are coming off a game where they scored 15 pts or less Hodges definitely did struggle, but it'll be easier for him if Ju-Ju Smith Schuster returns to the lineup this week. Schuster has been M.I.A. since the first Browns game, but was a full participant in practice Thursday. A notable name ON the injury list for the Steelers was CB Joe Haden, which would obviously hamper the secondary. The Jets are 6-1 Over following an ATS loss. 10* Over Steelers/Jets

8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): Saturday's win by the Texans officially ended the Titans' hopes of winning the division (AFC South). Losing here at home to the Texans last week really stung, but Tennessee can still make the playoffs as a Wild Card. It's down to them or Pittsburgh. Let us not forget that last week was just the second time the Titans lost since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB for the ineffective Marcus Mariota (6-2 SU). My power rankings say they should be favored in this spot and under HC Mike Vrabel, the team is 4-2 ATS as a home dog w/ four outright wins. 

New Orleans is off a very impressive performance on Monday Night Football. They throttled the Colts 34-7 to clinch their own division. Drew Brees set two NFL records in the win, one for single-game completion percentage (29 for 30, 96.7%) and he also became the NFL's all-time leader in TD passes. Coming off high-profile win like that, it's no wonder the public loves Brees and the Saints here, but it's a short week and now they are on the road (outdoors too). The Titans' defense (19.9 PPG allowed) is a lot better than the Colts, so look for Brees to be far less comfortable this week. 

I was skeptical at first, but Tannehill has done a great job as the starter for Tennessee, leading the league in yards per pass attempt (9.5). Reports on the status of RB Henry are conflicting, but the Saints have given up an average of 28.2 points in four games vs. top 8 rushing offenses (Titans are 8th in rushing). A change at kicker will be a positive as the Titans are last in the league in field goals made. Tennessee easily could have scored more last week as they gained 6.4 yards per play. But they had a FG blocked and Tannehill threw an INT near the goal line.  8* Tennessee 

10* Phoenix (9:05 ET): Leading scorer Devin Booker returned last night for the Suns, but it wasn't enough to turn the tide as the team lost 126-108 out in Oklahoma City. That's five losses in a row now for the Suns, who have tumbled down the standings as a result. But the numbers still suggest that this is a competitive ballclub as they're only being outscored by 0.3 PPG on the year. Tonight, they return home. While they came up short the L2 home games, those losses were by a combined three points. It's not an easy opponent coming in tonight, but I'll take the points w/ Phoenix.

The Rockets are coming off a big win out in LA as they beat the Clippers on Thursday, 122-117 as five-point dogs. But it wasn't easy. They trailed by as many as 16 in the second half and needed 40 points from Russell Westbrook in addition to 28 from James Harden. It was actually the second straight game where Houston rallied from a big deficit to win. Monday night at home vs. San Antonio, they trailed by as many as 25 before coming back to win 109-107. There's no denying the Rockets are a good team, but needing these kind of comebacks isn't a great sign. 

This is the 4th time Houston has won B2B games since Thanksgiving. They have yet to put together a three-game win streak as they are 0-3 SU/ATS off B2B wins w/ every loss coming in a game where they were favored to win by at least 7 points. With Booker, Phoenix can definitely score (116.6 PPG at home) and they are 13-4 ATS when playing with revenge. Two weeks ago, they lost by only six in Houston (were +11.5). While that was their 12th straight loss to the Rockets, the final margin being close only confirmed that the Suns are a lot better now than they've been in past years. 10* Phoenix

6* Columbus (7:05 ET): Already dealing with a long list of injuries, the last thing the Blue Jackets needed was to see Cam Atkinson go down with a lower-body injury on Thursday. Atkinson set career highs in goals, assists and points last season. He's out for at least the next two games. But while the Columbus injury report may be a bit longer than normal, the team is being given some relief Saturday with a visit from last place New Jersey. Not only are the Devils second to last in the league in points, this is a horrendous spot for them having played in Washington last night (lost 6-3). 

The Devils were tied 2-2 for most of the second period last night, but then came a four-goal blitz by the Capitals that put the game out of reach. Having recently traded Taylor Hall, morale is low in New Jersey even though they'd won two in a row prior to last night's setback. The team still has just 27 points and has been outscored by 39 goals. Only Detroit is worse in both regards. 

Columbus has won three games in a row, the last two coming against last place teams Detroit and Los Angeles. So this should be "old hat" for them. Also it should be noted that the win streak began w/ a very impressive 3-0 shutout of the Capitals. Prior to that, Washington hadn't been shutout this season. This is arguably the best stretch C-bus has had all season and I see it continuing at the expense of a very bad team playing in a bad spot. The Blue Jackets are 7-1 vs. the Devils over the last three seasons. 6* Columbus

10* Kansas State (7:00 ET): This game takes place at a neutral setting (Kansas City, MO). Kansas State doesn't exactly come in peak form as they've dropped four of six, including a 67-61 setback at the hands of Mississippi State last weekend. That was also a neutral site game, which took place in Newark, NJ. Poor shooting was the clear culprit as the Wildcats made only 32.3% of their FG attempts, including just EIGHT two-point field goals. I expect an improvement on offense here against a St. Louis side that just let a non-DI opponent shoot better than 50%. 

St. Louis is 9-2 SU w/ their only losses coming to Seton Hall and Auburn. The Auburn loss was exactly one week ago and it was a very uninspired follow-up on Tuesday as they beat Maryville, a non-board team, 82-69. Most concerning for the Billikens is they allowed 51.9% shooting. While they were never really in danger of losing, SLU allowed Maryville to make a stunning 23 of 38 two-point field goals. That's shocking for that caliber of opponent.

Kansas State has not played since last Saturday, giving them a bit of an advantage. I realize it's been a bit of a disappointing stretch for the Wildcats, but two of St. Louis' top three scorers are dealing w/ injuries. KSU is also 5-1 SU and ATS the L6 head to head meetings. The Wildcats are still solid defensive (only 59.0 PPG allowed) and I see this as being a "breakout" game. 10* Kansas State

***Note: This analysis was written prior to the announcement that several FAU players would be suspended. But I am still recommending a play on FAU at the current number!***

10* Florida Atlantic (3:30 ET): The Boca Raton Bowl is a home game for FAU, who won this very bowl game 50-3 (over Akron) two years ago to cap an incredible first season under Lane Kiffin. Ironically, this same bowl is where the next chapter of FAU football will begin as Kiffin has moved on to Ole Miss and won't be coaching Saturday. Kiffin departs having gone 26-13 SU in his three seasons in Boca Raton, twice winning 10+ games and a C-USA Championship. Willie Taggart, fresh off failing over at Florida State, will be Kiffin's replacement. But DC Glenn Spencer will serve as the interim for the bowl.

SMU was shaping up to be a really nice story, starting 8-0 for the first time since 1982 (program's heyday, pre "Death Penalty") and there was talk that Sonny Dykes' team would be making it to the Cotton Bowl, which would have been one heck of a story. But the Mustangs dropped two of their final four regular season games and were pretty much an afterthought in the AAC race going into the final weekend. That shouldn't take away from what the team has accomplished in two years under Dykes, but the only bowl teams it beat were Arkansas State, Temple and Tulane. 

Were it not for Kiffin leaving, you'd have to think FAU would be the favorite here. A coach leaving is obviously a very big deal, but this is still a home game for the Owls, who have won six in a row. There were no signs of "packing it in" in the C-USA Title Game when they dismantled UAB 49-6 on this field. I was 3-0 ATS taking FAU this year, including that C-USA Title Game. They are +14.5 PPG at home and it should be pointed out that since opening 0-2 (lost to UCF and Ohio St!), the Owls are 10-1 SU and have scored 31 or more pts in every game but one! They aren't as strong as the team that covered this game as a 22-point favorite two years ago. But they shouldn't be getting points either. 10* Florida Atlantic

10* Over Central Michigan/San Diego State (2:00 ET): The New Mexico Bowl pits Central Michigan of the MAC against San Diego State of the Mountain West. Both teams saw their respective regular seasons end in disappointment. Central Michigan lost outright (to Miami) as a favorite in the MAC Championship Game while San Diego State lost a de facto division title game to Hawaii, which would have given it the right to play for its own conference title. The Aztecs did bounce back to defeat BYU 13-3 in the regular season finale, so unlike CMU they are off a win.

San Diego State was the #1 under team during the regular season with an O/U mark of 1-11. Their last six games have all stayed Under and have been incredibly low-scoring by modern college football standards. This is a team that averages just 19.0 PPG, which falls in the bottom 12 of all of FBS and is the lowest average among bowl teams. To help counteract that, the Aztecs defense allows only 12.8 PPG, which ranks 4th in the FBS. The only teams to allow fewer are: Clemson, Georgia and Ohio State. But the big key here for the Aztecs is that QB Ryan Agnew will be back in the lineup after he missed the BYU game. 

While San Diego State certainly has the profile to match its O/U results, this is a bowl game and often times that means you don't get the same kind of defensive intensity. It's also an early start time for SDSU, so don't be surprised if the defense is a bit "sleepy" to start. Central Michigan averages 31.9 PPG and had scored 38+ in six of seven before losing the MAC Champ Game. At the same time, the Chippewas defense isn't good outside of Mt Pleasant as they allow 34.6 PPG on the road. SDSU HC Rocky Long knows CMU HC Jim McElwain well from the time the former spent at Colorado State. McElwain has done a great job in his first year here (CMU was 1-11 LY) and you can look for it to end w/ an Over. 10* Over Central Michigan/San Diego State

10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): Houston took a big step towards winning its second straight AFC South title Sunday by beating Tennessee 24-21 as a three-point underdog. However, they were outgained in the contest (432-374) and gave up 6.4 yards per play. I had to sweat out an Under, which was my 10* Total of the Year. The fact is I was lucky to win it as the Texans defense forced only three punts (just 1 in the second half) as it predictably is not the same since JJ Watt went down with a pec injury. I believe an explosive Bucs offense is going to be able to have its way in this one. 

Credit the job HC Bruce Arians is doing in his first season in Tampa Bay. When this team was 3-7 SU, they easily could have rolled over and "packed it in" for the season. Instead, the Bucs have won four in a row for the first time since 2016. While they haven't beaten anyone the caliber of Houston during this stretch, the Bucs have beaten two other AFC South teams - Indianapolis & Jacksonville. Despite QB Jameis Winston's propensity for turning the ball over, he is leading an attack that has scored 38 pts B2B weeks. Winston has thrown for 467 and 446 yards in those games. 

It was a mistake I made going against the Bucs last week as they easily beat the undermanned Lions 38-17. But I didn't like them laying points on the road. Now they are a home dog in a situation where my own power ratings say they should be a slight favorite! The Texans are 1-5 ATS as favorites this season. You might be shocked to learn that the Bucs have the league's 13th best point differential (+18), which is just ahead of the division leading Texans. Houston can clinch the AFC South this week w/ a win here, but w/ a rematch against Tennessee set to take place next week, doesn't it seem almost "preordained" that that game would decide the division? 10* Tampa Bay

10* Over Furman/Mercer (7:30 ET): Furman is a team that should be taken pretty seriously in the SoCon this year as its only non-conference losses came to Alabama, USF and Auburn, all of which were "true" road games. It'll be interesting to see whether or not the Paladians can match up w/ SoCon favorite East Tenn State (who just upset LSU earlier this week). Most feel the SoCon is going to be a very competitive three-team race between those two and UNC Greensboro, all of whom are ranked inside the top 80 of my own personal power rankings. 

Furman opens conference play w/ a road game against Mercer. Mercer joined the SoCon in 2014 (formerly in the A-Sun), right after its stunning 1st round upset of Duke in the NCAA Tournament. Since then, it's been a bit of a struggle for the Bears in their new conference. Last year, they finished just 11-20 SU and were 6-12 in conference play, their worst record since joining the SoCon. They have really struggled against Furman, going 1-10 ATS including 0-5 here at home. The L3 seasons have seen them lose all five meetings to the Paladians. 

So it's no surprise that Furman comes in favored for this SoCon opener. But the total is what has my attention as Mercer has gone Under in six straight games. They've really struggled offensively in the L5, averaging just 63.4 PPG on 40.1% shooting. But only one of those five games was here at home. Furman can definitely score as is evident by the fact they are averaging nearly 80 PPG for the season. With the exception of two games, they've scored at least 70 in every game this year. With them doing much of the "heavy lifting," look for this game to go Over the total. 10* Over Furman/Mercer

10* Under Stars/Panthers (7:05 ET): Dallas played last night and pulled off a surprise OT win in Tampa Bay by a score of 4-3. Outscoring the Lightning in TB isn't easy, especially when you're facing a 48-20 disadvantage in shots like the Stars did. Somehow they were able to overcome that disadvantage and basically all the credit goes to goalie Anton Khudobin, who made 45 saves. Maybe that shouldn't come as too big a shock as the Stars have the lowest goals allowed per game average in the league entering Friday (2.31). Tonight they are in Miami to face the Panthers. 

Florida put up six goals in their last game, an easy win over a lousy Ottawa club. It obviously won't be that easy tonight against the stingy Stars. Note in the three games prior to the win over the Senators, the Panthers totaled just four goals. All those were at home as well. Florida has been one of the league's highest scoring teams thus far, averaging 3.39 per game, which ranks 5th. But the Under is 4-1-2 in December for them, a sign that things may be about to change. 

Dallas had gone Under in five straight prior to last night. They were obviously pretty fortunate to score four goals on only 20 shots. Note they were down 3-2 going into the final five minutes of regulation, meaning it was very close to a sixth straight Under. They'll likely go w/ Ben Bishop in goal tonight (.950 save percentage L4 starts) while Sergei Bobrovsky is likely to be in between the pipes for the Panthers. Bobrovsky has a 1.69 GAA and .953 save percentage in December. 10* Under Stars/Panthers

8* Towson (5:00 ET): Raise your hand if you were aware that Liberty was one of the four remaining unbeatens left in College Basketball. Quite frankly, the entire quartet includes names you wouldn't expect as Liberty is one of two teams not even ranked (Duquesne is the other). Auburn and San Diego State are the other two unbeatens, but I don't think anyone is really talking about either of them (well maybe Auburn) as a potential Final Four team. 

Liberty is 12-0 SU, which is the best record in the country. But the Flames haven't exactly had to "run the gauntlet" schedule-wise. In terms of strength of schedule, KenPom says they've played among the 10 easiest in the entire country! Tip your cap to the job done so far as they have blown out a majority of their opponents. They also just went on the road and beat Vanderbilt last Saturday. That was the fifth straight lined game that they covered. But I remain very suspect of this team's success. 

I won't sell you on the notion that Towson is any kind of great team. But the Tigers should certainly be coming in motivated for this game against an undefeated foe. The game takes place in Washington D.C. as part of the "Battle for the Capital" Tournament. Towson has had nine days off since they beat UMBC 77-71 (didn't quite cover as 8.5-pt dogs). While Liberty is going to look to establish its usual methodical pace in this one, I see the underdog staying within the number as they've already taken on a number of stronger opponents like Florida and Xavier. The Tigers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in neutral court games when the total is 120 to 129.5. 8* Towson

analysis soon

8* CS-Bakersfield (10:00 ET): Cal State Bakersfield has had all sorts of problems covering spreads this season. They enter this game at 1-8 ATS and have also lost three in a row straight up. Two of those games, vs UC Santa Barbara and at Idaho, were close. The Roadrunners were even favorites at Idaho (-5.5) last Saturday, but eventually went down in OT by a score of 76-70. That final six-point margin was the largest lead either team enjoyed the entire game. Such are the breaks when you're a struggling team. 

But I see the Roadrunners earning a rare win tonight at the expense of Montana State, who is playing its second road game in four days. The first saw them lose by 14 at North Dakota State. Since a 4-1 start, the Bobcats have now lost three of five. They haven't dropped B2B games yet this season, but I think it speaks volumes that they come in as the underdog here. So far Montana State has been favored in only two games. That's two fewer times that Cal State Bakersfield. 

I'm counting on homecourt advantage playing a role tonight. CS-Bakersfield has averaged 81 PPG at home so far and all four wins this season have come right here. While its true three of those were against non-DI foes, they did also beat Hampton 70-57 as a seven-point favorite. Montana State, meanwhile, is averaging only 62 PPG on the road. Despite shooting just 35.1% their last game, CS-Bakersfield still managed to almost win on the road. They are "due" for a win tonight and get the job done. 8* CS-Bakersfield 

7* Boston (7:05 ET): I was stunned as to how poorly the Islanders played Tuesday night (I had them). They lost 8-3 at home to the Predators by giving up the game's final seven goals. The Isles entered that game 13-2-1 SU at home. An equally stunning result that night was Boston losing on home ice to Los Angeles. The Bruins were -275 on the ML for the contest as they fell for the sixth time in the last seven games. Somebody's gotta bounce back here and I believe it's going to be the Bruins.

While the Islanders are a worthy adversary, you have to remember it wasn't that long ago that it seemed as if Boston might run away with the President's Trophy (awarded to team w/ most regular season points). They still comfortably lead the Atlantic Division - with a 10-point advantage - and their +28 goal differential is tops in the Eastern Conference. Six of their seven home losses this year, including the one to LA on Tuesday, have come past regulation. It's hard to fathom a team this good being in this kind of prolonged slump. It's only a matter of time before they break out. 

The Islanders' loss Tuesday was their worst of the year and the eight goals allowed were obviously a season-high (previously had not allowed more than 5 in any game). They still lead the league in goals allowed (80), though Boston (90) isn't far behind and has played three more games. Head to head, the Bruins have had the Isles' number in recent years, winning 12 of the last 14 matchups including seven straight. NY isn't nearly as good on the road as their scoring average drops to 2.6 goals per game. They are 5-14 SU after giving up 5+ goals the previous game. 7* Boston

10* Cal Poly SLO (10:05 ET): Cal Poly is off a terrible loss (to Fresno State), but thankfully is catching generous number tonight at Sacramento State. Obviously, those two things are tied together. Scoring only 37 points isn't an easy thing to do, but that's what the Mustangs finished with Saturday vs. Fresno. And that was a home game. They shot a dreadful 24.5% from the field including 1 of 16 from three-point range. But, believe it or not, it was just a three-point game at halftime. 

Sacramento State is a team probably not on your radar, but they should be as they are the only perfect ATS team left in the country. Though they lost Saturday, the Hornets improved to 6-0 ATS by staying within the number at Santa Clara. The final score was 60-58. It was only the second loss of the year for Sacramento State, the other coming at Colorado. They actually led Santa Clara much of the game, but could not overcome their own poor shooting night. 

The key for tonight is that this is the most points Sacramento State has had to lay in any game so far this season. Looking at Cal Poly's resume, that should not be a surprise. But Sacramento State has been a dog in half of its lined games so far and it's a big jump to DD favorite. Cal Poly has faced better teams than Sacramento State and I'm willing to chalk Saturday up to "one of those nights." The fact that the number came down rather quickly only confirms my suspicions here. 10* Cal Poly SLO

10* Over Ark Pine Bluff/New Mexico State (9:00 ET): Arkansas Pine Bluff is the ONLY team in the country that has not had one of its games go Over the total. The Golden Lions simply aren't very good (1-9 SU record) and what is nothing short of a murderous schedule to start the season hasn't helped matters. Only one time have they played a home game and that just so happens to be their lone win, which was against a non D-I opponent (75-67), Champion Baptist. Incredibly, the Golden Lions' next six games are also on the road, including this one at New Mexico State.

New Mexico State has had its own set of issues recently, namely covering the spread as they are 2-9 ATS this season and 0-5 the last five games. Saturday saw them suffer a second loss to New Mexico, this one coming in Albuquerque by a score of 69-62. The Aggies were four-point underdogs. Earlier in the year, they'd lost to the Lobos 78-77 as four-point favorites here in Las Cruces. Tonight's game marks just the second time NMSU will be favored by more than 11.5 points this season and we're not about to lay that w/ a team struggling so mightily at the betting window.

Arkansas Pine Bluff is "unplayable" as well, so it's the total and not surprisingly I'm going to fade the early season trend and go Over. I realize Arkansas Pine Bluff is barely averaging 50 PPG, but they give up their fair share and with NMSU averaging 76.7 PPG at home, this one should easily go Over a low number. New Mexico State's scoring average has been way down recently because they haven't been at home, but this game should get them back on track offensively. It's a pretty low number for both teams based on previous O/U lines this season. 10* Over Ark Pine Bluff/New Mexico St

10* Under Heat/Sixers (7:05 ET): Both teams are in off disappointing losses. Miami, for the first time all year, fell to a sub-.500 opponent as they went down 118-111 in Memphis Monday. Philadelphia, playing without Joel Embiid, lost by 20 at Brooklyn on Sunday. As both look to bounce back Wednesday night, Philly seemingly has the edge as they are a perfect 14-0 at home so far. They are the only team that hasn't lost a home game this season. Embiid is expected back for tonight's game while Miami is still a little short-handed. But Under is going to be the call here. 

The 20-point loss to Brooklyn was the Sixers' worst of the season, at least in terms of margin of defeat. The team is only 3-3 w/o Embiid in the lineup and his replacement, Al Horford, really struggled Sunday. Horford shot just 5 of 15 overall and was 0 for 6 from three-point range. You obviously expect Philadelphia's offensive output to go up w/ Embiid back, but don't discount the defensive benefits he brings either. A big reason why the Sixers are still undefeated at home is that they only give up 98.9 PPG here at the Wells Fargo Center. That's easily the fewest number of PPG allowed by any team at home this year. Overall, the Sixers are 6th in defensive efficiency. 

Miami is also a top 10 team in defensive efficiency and they'll need to more closely resmble that ranking here as opposed to what we saw Monday. They allowed 73 pts in the first half to Memphis, which is not something you'd expect to see. The L5 Heat games have all gone Over, but I'm banking on that defensive effort improving. Also, the Heat are averaging just 107.5 PPG on the road. It was an easy Under when these teams met here back in November (Sixers won 113-86). 10* Under Heat/Sixers