10* Under Appalachian State/LA Monroe (8:00 ET): The Sun Belt Tournament gets underway Tuesday w/ a pair of 1st round matchups. LA Monroe is forced to play this "extra" game due to losing a head to head tiebreak w/ Coastal Carolina. I don't envision Appalachian State providing much resistance, however, laying this many points w/ the Warhawks doesn't sound like a particularly good idea either. What I do like here is the total. It was set way too high considering both teams have been going Under far more than they have been going Over of late. App State is 5-1 Under its last six games while ULM is 5-2 Under in its last seven. Take the Under here. 

The rest of the SBC Tournament will take place down in New Orleans, but these 1st round games are at campus sites. That's a big edge to LA Monroe tonight (as well as for South Alabama playing Arkansas State). The Warhawks went 12-2 SU at home during the regular season and did average an impressive 84.6 PPG. They shot very well vs. App State in both regular season meetings (above 51% both games) and averaged 82.5 PPG. But this is the postseason now and I don't think we'll be seeing that level of scoring. Note that La Monroe just turned in one of its better defensive efforts, holding Little Rock to 62 pts in the regular season finale.

App State shot 56.5% from the field in the first game vs. La Monroe. But that was at home and a season-best FG%, at least for conference play. The Mountaineers were held to 43.5% in the rematch, which took place on 2.28. Thus, that second meeting was lower scoring and stayed Under. Things would have been even worse offensively for ASU in that game had it not been for a career-high 47 pts from Ronshad Shabazz. Simply put, I'm NOT expecting the Mountaineers to score much here. They shot just 39.0% in the reg season finale vs. South Alabama. La Monroe shot just 41.1% in its last game and only got to 79 pts because of a big night at the free throw line. 10* Under Appalachian State/LA Monroe 

10* Over Capitals/Penguins (7:05 ET): These two long-standing rivals have played three times this season. The last two were both low-scoring affairs, a 2-1 final each time. Both of those games were played in D.C. and each team won once. The last time they faced off, believe it or not, was December. But there was a high-scoring game here in Pittsburgh, played all the way back on Oct 4 w/ the Penguins prevailing 7-6. That was the night after Washington raised its 1st Stanley Cup banner (beat Boston 7-0) and the season opener for the Pens. Fast forward to the present and I'm expecting another high-scoring affair tonight. Take the Over. 

After scoring a total of 13 goals in its first two games of the season, Washington has remained one of the league's top offensive teams. They are 7th in the league in goals per game (3.38) and really have turned it on as of late. The Caps come into tonight riding a seven-game win streak (now 1st in the Metro w/ 89 pts) and have scored 30 goals in those seven games. They've only conceded one in the last two games, but both of those were at home. They've also faced a very favorable schedule w/ only one of the last seven opponents likely making the playoffs (that would be Winnipeg). Bottom line is I expect Washington to continue to score tonight, but they will be tested defensively.

Pittsburgh is 5th in the league in goals per game (3.42), so they are slightly more prolific than the Caps. Like their rival, they've been scoring plenty as of late (scored 27 goals L8 games), but have been stingier than normal as well. In fact, the Penguins' last five games have all stayed Under the total. They've allowed just nine goals during that time, but like Washington, they rank in the bottom half of the league in goals allowed over the course of this season. I'm a little concerned w/ the workload of goaltender Matt Murray, who just started three games in four nights, including back to back games. His save percentage of .947 in those four games prob can't be maintained. 10* Over Capitals/Penguins

8* San Diego (11:30 ET): It's become almost automatic for Gonzaga and St. Mary's to meet in the WCC Tournament Final every year. In fact, we've gotten that exact Finals pairing 7 out of the last 10 years (but not last year). The three times we didn't see the pairing, BYU made it in place of St. Marys. (Gonzaga has made the Final every year since 1997!) As per usual, Gonzaga and St. Mary's have received the double byes into tonight's semifinal round by virtue of finishing 1-2 in the regular season. But there's an upset-minded team looking to spoil the party this year and it's San Diego, who has gotten on a real late-season "roll." 

This year's WCC Tournament has already featured plenty of upsets as neither Gonzaga nor St. Mary's will be facing "who they thought they would." San Diego is the 7-seed and just stunned BYU 80-57 on Saturday to get here. It was the Toreros' third straight excellent defensive performance in this tournament. They'd previously held Portland to 47 points on 33.3% shooting and Santa Clara to 45 points on 27.8% shooting. Now those were games they were favored to win. But they were 3.5-point dogs against BYU and limited them to 31% shooting from the field. I'm counting on that USD defense coming up big again tonight. 

St. Mary's has been off since 3/2 when they lost the regular season finale, at home, to Gonzaga. They were held to just 55 points in that contest, which is bad news considering the team's 18-32 ATS record the L3 seasons coming off an Under. The Gaels are not as strong this year as they have been in past years. Now don't tell that to San Diego, who will be playing w/ double revenge here for a pair of double digit losses in the regular season. The Toreros shot the ball horribly (29.4%) the last meeting, which I don't expect to be the case here. In what figures to be a low-scoring game, taking the points is the way to go. 8* San Diego

10* Oklahoma City (9:05 ET): As much respect as I have for the Jazz (remember, I called for them to go on a big January run and they did), I don't like them laying points to a superior team like the Thunder, even at home. Yes, OKC has gone just 1-9 ATS its last 10 games. But they were in a horrible spot their last game, coming off a win in overtime at Portland and playing w/o rest against the Clippers. They lost 118-110, but I'm calling for a bounce back here as this team is "due" to start covering. Take the points. 

You may recall that I just played AGAINST Utah in their most recent game. I took Memphis, as a home dog, and they beat the Jazz outright by a score of 114-104. Utah trailed most of the way and was forced into an unusually high number of three-point attempts. Now the Grizzlies do lead the NBA in scoring defense. But OKC isn't too shabby in the defensive department either, ranking 5th in efficiency. Three players fouled out in Friday's loss to the Clippers, including Paul George and Russell Westbrook, which obviously didn't help in an already less than advantageous situation.

The Thunder are 3-0 against the Jazz this season, including two one-point victories. The last time they played was Feb 22nd and that was a double overtime game. It's pretty surprising that OKC has only three wins in its last 10 games, two of them requiring OT and the other coming by just four points. They are too talented for such a streak to continue and I believe the better team is getting points in this one. The Thunder are a solid 9-6 ATS when getting points this season and Utah has failed to cover four of the last five times it has been favored, losing two of those games outright. 10* Oklahoma City

10* Eastern Michigan (7:00 ET): The MAC Tournament gets underway Monday. These 1st round matchups are being played at campus sites, quite an edge for the home teams, who will have to win four times this week to make the Big Dance (next three rounds all played in Cleveland). Here we have the #6 vs. #11 seed matchup w/ Eastern Michigan hosting Ball State. The latter did not end its regular season well (at all) as it dropped five of six, the lone win coming by just a single bucket. Overall, Ball State is 2-11 ATS its last 13 games w/ seven straight non-covers.

So laying just a small number w/ EMU seems to be a good idea here, especially considering they swept the regular season series. It was a two-point win in Muncie back in January, then a seven-point win here in Ypsilanti just a week ago. Last week's game saw the Eagles largely in control from start to finish. They led by 12 at halftime and held the Cardinals to 38.5% shooting for the game. For the season, Eastern Michigan went 11-6 SU here at home while holding foes to 66.2 PPG on just 40.2% shooting. Ball State has averaged just 61.4 points over its last five games.

The Cardinals' regular season ended w/ a 64-57 loss at home to Northern Illinois (were 5-pt favorites). They are 9-26 ATS the L3 seasons when coming off a game that went Under the total. Eastern Michigan also lost its reg season finale, but covered the spread at Toledo in a six-point defeat. They are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS off their previous three losses and I trust the Eagles' defense to get the job done here. Ball State is basically a wounded animal at this point, waiting to be put out of its misery. 10* Eastern Michigan

8* Wofford (7:00 ET): This is the Southern Conference Final and top-seeded Wofford is in the rare position of being a "smaller" mid-major that does NOT have to win its conference tournament. The Terriers are ranked 22nd in the country coming into Monday and will likely be even higher once the new poll comes out later today. I say that because they're now on a 19-game win streak (school record) after rather easily dispatching of East Tennessee State in the semifinals yesterday. But despite their "assured" NCAA Tournament status, I'm still laying the points here w/ Wofford as they have something to prove.

Because they "need" to win tonight, I'm figuring UNC Greensboro might be a pretty popular underdog tonight. But the Spartans have expended a lot of energy the last two days in coming from behind to defeat both Samford and Furman. Sunday, they ended the game on a 21-10 run to win 66-62. Saturday, they were down 12 to 7-seed Samford at the half and down six w/ six minutes to go. Privately, I think Wofford has to be ecstatic to draw UNC Greensboro in this spot, rather than Furman, who I had rated as the stronger potential opponent. 

UNC Greensboro has pulled off a number of come from behind efforts to get to 28-5 SU on the year. But they got drilled both times they faced Wofford, losing by 29 and 30 points. With this game being on national TV, I don't think Wofford is going to be prone to any sort of letdown. Rather, I look for them to make their presence felt on a national level as they look to go into the NCAA Tournament w/ a fairly decent seed (a 6 or 7?). The Terriers are 20-0 SU vs. the rest of the SoCon, winning by an average margin of 17 PPG. They have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 games, only failing when the were asked to lay 23.5 against VMI. 8* Wofford

10* Memphis (6:05 ET): The Grizzlies came through for me in a major way Friday night, upsetting the Jazz (here at home) by a score of 114-104. The most impressive thing about that win is the Grizz led virtually "wire to wire" against a very good team. If they can beat Utah, then certainly they can beat Orlando, even as the Magic try and jockey themselves into playoff position in the Eastern Conference. Orlando just beat Dallas Friday night, but they weren't as fortunate at the betting window as they failed to cover as 6.5-pt chalk (won 111-106). Unfortunately for them, they were outscored 33-19 in the fourth quarter. 

As I stated in the writeup for Friday night's play on Memphis, they are a good defensive team, which will allow them to stay in most games. This has been the basis for me taking them multiple times in the home dog role. They now rank #1 in the league in scoring defense (103.8 PPG allowed), just ahead of Indiana. They forced the Jazz into taking an abnormal number of three-pointers Friday. As for the Grizzlies' offense, it does rank near the bottom of the league, but there are now several new pieces starting to gel together. Count Jonas Valanciunas among them. He contributed 27 pts against the Jazz and is now averaging 19.2 PPG on 61.5% shooting in six games here. 

Orlando has failed to cover in three straight and this could be a rare instance of them going off as a road favorite. That's only happened six times previously this season and they've lost three of those six games outright. My own personal numbers indicate Memphis should be favored here as they go for their first three-game win streak since November. The Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in March and have played better than the SU record would indicate. I'll continue to take them until the oddsmakers give them the respect they deserve. 10* Memphis

10* Over Wisconsin/Ohio State (4:30 ET): Wisconsin needs a win today to lock up the #4 seed in the Big 10 Tournament while Ohio State is just trying to get off the NCAA Tournament bubble. A loss today in the home finale would drop the Buckeyes to 8-12 SU in the Big 10, not a death knell, but they are on pretty shaky ground and trending downward w/o their leading scorer/rebounder Kaleb Wesson. Despite OSU playing without Wesson and Wisconsin being incredibly stingy at the defensive end, I expect this game to go Over the total, which is too low. The teams have not met previously this season. 

In the two games so far w/o Wesson, Ohio State has scored only 51 and 50 points in losses to Purdue and Northwestern. But both of those games were also played on the road. Here in Columbus, the Buckeyes are averaging a far more impressive 75.8 PPG. Even with Wesson playing in most of the games, they average only 59.8 points in "true" road games. The Under is 9-3 in those true roadies, but the Over is 12-6 in all other OSU games this season. The Buckeyes played a horrible game at N'western on Wednesday, missing the first 13 shots they took and finishing the game just 26.6% from the floor, including 4 of 26 on three-pointers. They can't possibly shoot any worse today. 

Wisconsin just allowed its season-low in its last game (45 points) vs. Iowa, but that was also the third time the Badgers held an opponent below 50 pts this season. They are top five in the country in defensive efficiency. But despite all that, I'm still looking for an Over here as Wisconsin did give up 75 points in its last road game plus they should find their way offensively against a struggling Ohio State squad. The Over has cashed each of the last four times these teams have played and is 7-3 in the Buckeyes' last 10 home games. The Over is also 4-0 in Wisconsin's last four games vs. teams with an overall winning record. Look for this one to sneak Over. 10* Over Wisconsin/Ohio State

8* Under Bulls/Pistons (12:05 ET): Two of the worst shooting teams in the league, statistically speaking, collide Sunday afternoon in the Motor City. The Pistons are red hot and as a result have seized the 6th spot in the Eastern Conference pecking order. They've won 11 of 13 w/ the most recent win coming Friday against these Bulls. That game saw them come back from a 21-point deficit, scoring 43 pts in the fourth quarter. Playing at home, Detroit is unlikely to fall into any sort of similar deficit just as they are not likely to have a 43-point quarter again. Nor are the Bulls probably going to turn in a 66-point half here. Take the Under. 

Chicago raced out to a 66-49 halftime advantage on Friday, based on the strength of forcing 11 first half turnovers, which were converted into 20 points. In the 2H, they forced only seven turnovers and those were converted into just four points. As alluded to above, the Bulls are not a sharp shooting team. They are dead last in the league in offensive efficiency. Note that despite the big 1st half from the Bulls on Friday, and the Pistons' huge 4Q comeback, the game still stayed Under by a few points. The Bulls shot 51% from the floor Friday. The last time they shot above 50%, they went Under in their next game. 

Detroit finished w/ a 54.2 FG% Friday, a number usually uncommon for them. Now it was the third time this month that they shot 53% or better and the Over is still 9-2 in the Pistons' last 11 games. However, this is a team that still ranks 28th in the league in field goal percentage (at 44.1). Only Cleveland and New York are below them. One positive for Detroit here is they shouldn't have to worry much about the Bulls from behind the three-point line. Chicago is 27th in the league in three-point attempts and 29th in three-pointers made per game. Familiarity breeds an Under. 8* Under Bulls/Pistons

10* Under Suns-Blazers (10:05 ET): The Suns arrive in Portland on a rare three-game win streak and have won four of their last five overall. Though not a season-best win streak, they can match it w/ another win tonight (previous 4-game win streak took place back in December). Easier said than done, however, as they'll be playing a Blazers team that's looking to bounce back from a couple of defeats. Also, the entirety of Phoenix's current win streak has come at home. They have the fewest number of road wins in the league (5) and have dropped nine in a row to Portland.

The Blazers are off B2B losses for the 1st time since right before the All-Star Break. Previously, they had won six of seven w/ the only loss coming by two points at Toronto. Poor defensive efforts were the culprit in both defeats, more notably when they gave up 120 pts to a Memphis team that is last in the league in scoring. The 129-121 loss to OKC was an overtime game that saw Damian Lillard get ejected at the end of regulation, a game where he scored 51 points. But Lillard's teammates did not shoot the ball particularly well. It will likely be a more even distribution of scoring tonight. 

Portland has gone Over in four straight while Phoenix has gone Under in three straight. So something's gotta give tonight. The Suns are a poor defensive team playing on the road, but I still believe this total is too high. Suns' games still "only" average 222.5 PPG. Blazers' games average 224.1 PPG. Portland is a much better defensive team at home (only 108.6 PPG allowed) and the Under is 6-1 in their last seven games after giving up 125 or more the previous time out. The total here is significantly higher than what it closed at for the teams' last meeting back in January. 10* Under Suns/Blazers 

8* Neb-Omaha (9:30 ET): This is a quarterfinal in the Summit League Tournament, which gets going today in Sioux Falls, SD. Second seeded Omaha is one of two teams that really dominated this league during the regular season (top seed South Dakota St being the other). There's quite a gap between those two teams and the rest of the field, so I thought it would be an opportune time to take advantage of that fact w/ the pointspread being widely available (not always the case in the Summit League). Omaha should easily roll onto the semifinals. Lay the points. 

The Mavericks went 13-3 SU in conference play during the regular season. They split w/ South Dakota St (who finished 14-2 SU), but unfortunately were swept by Oral Roberts, losing both times by four points or less. But overall, this is a team that has won 16 out of its last 19 games, including 12 of 14. They concluded the regular season w/ an easy win over last place Denver (who didn't even qualify for the tournament), 86-76 as a four-point favorite. That was the Mavericks' 3rd straight road game. 

Omaha's quarterfinal opponent is a North Dakota team they beat twice during the regular season, scoring 90+ pts in both games. The road win was a lot closer (92-91) as the Mavericks breezed to a 90-72 win at home. The Fighting Hawks did have a three-game win streak snapped in their reg season finale as they lost by 15 at South Dakota. But note before that three-game win streak, the Fighting Hawks were just 3-9 SU in league play. They were a perfect 4-0 against Western Illinois and Denver, the two worst teams in the league, and just 2-10 SU vs. everyone else. The last time these teams played, Omaha shot a blistering 56.5% from the field. 8* Neb-Omaha

7* NY Rangers (7:05 ET): There's little on the line tonight at MSG with both the Devils and Rangers essentially out of playoff contention. But there is a pride factor at play as the Devils have lost five straight and the Rangers have lost six straight. Normally, I might just choose to skip this one altogether, but it's the second night of a back to back for the road team (New Jersey) and that presents an edge for NY. The Devils were shutout last night (3-0 by Washington), the second time that's happened to them in the last three games. They've scored a total of five goals during the five-game losing skid. 

While the Devils have earned just a single point in their five-game skid (lost to Columbus in a shootout), the Rangers have actually picked up four points in their losing streak. Losing four times in OT/shootout is pretty unlucky, even for a bad team like the Rangers. But the good news here is that they've had NJ's number this year, beating them in both prior head to head matchups. They've scored a total of nine goals in the two wins. This is the Rangers' longest losing streak of the entire season. Note the Devils started the year 4-0 and have lost more than two-thirds of their games since.

While a six-game losing streak is bad, the Rangers have played their opponents tough. They've also had to take on a challenging set of opponents. Three of the games came against division leaders Tampa Bay and Washington. One of the two regulation losses was 1-0 at Dallas. Fortunately for the Rangers, they are catching the Devils in an ideal spot. Not only is NJ just 3-8 SU in the second game of a back to back this year, they are an ugly 8-22-3 SU on the road while getting outscored by almost a full goal and a half per game. With a brutal four-game road trip upcoming (three of those games in Western Canada), expect the Rangers to give everything they have to win this game. 7* NY Rangers

10* Colorado (5:00 ET): This would appear to be the proverbial "two ships sailing in opposite directions" type deal. USC has lost three in a row and six of eight (also 2-6 ATS). Colorado has won and covered seven of its last nine games, including B2B blowouts here in Boulder. The Buffaloes still have a chance to finish in the top four in the Pac 12, if Oregon State were to lose at Washington State or if Utah lost at home to UCLA. That would mean a first round bye in next week's conference tournament. They have beaten USC 8 of the last 12 meetings, including 69-65 (as 4.5-pt dogs) back on Feb 5 in LA. At home, the Buffs should roll today.

USC has been pretty horrific on the defensive end of late. They've given up a combined 176 pts the L2 games, including 22 made three-pointers. Consider that the Trojans shot better than 55% from the field Thursday and still lost by nine to Utah. This is their second three-game losing streak in Pac 12 play this season. Unlike the first time, they don't have the luxury of facing Cal the next time out. They are 1-8 ATS their last nine road games against teams with winning home records. They give up 82.8 PPG on the road this year and Colorado has gone 12-3 SU here in Boulder this season. 

A big edge for CU in this matchup comes on the glass. They are the top team in the Pac 12 in rebounding differential (+5.5 per game) while USC ranks 10th (-1.7). USC was really dominated on the glass by Utah on Thursday. No Pac 12 team likes the "2nd road game in three days" scenario, but Boulder is a particularly tough place to play (altitude). Colorado crushed UCLA at home Thursday night, 93-68, as six-point chalk. For a second straight game, they held their opponents below 40% shooting. It would appear as if the Buffs have all the key advantages heading into this one and I'm expecting a rout. 10* Colorado

10* Marshall (12:00 ET): I jumped all over the Thundering Herd earlier in the week and they rewarded us w/ an easy 94-78 win and cover over FIU. I had said that this was a completely different team at home and sure enough, they responded in kind. For the season, they are now 11-3 SU in Huntington and averaging an impresive 87.9 PPG. I also went over how the "pod" format being used by Conference USA may end up hurting the Herd, but the bottom line is I expect them to continue a strong finish to the regular season here in the finale vs. Florida Atlantic. Lay the points.

For awhile there, Marshall was having a real rough go of it, especially at the betting window. There was a stretch where they'd lost seven of eight game and things got even worse ATS w/ a 10-game slide. That's what landed them in the "pod" w/ the middle of the pack C-USA teams, rather than competing for a top five seed w/ the big boys. I went over this unique "pod" format in the last writeup. But just to rehash, after every C-USA team played 14 games, they were broken up into three groups. If you were a top five team after the 14-game mark, you were assured no worse than a top five seed for the conference tourney, but would only play fellow top five teams for the remainder of the regular season. The same thing holds true for the teams that were 6 through 10 in the standings as well as 11 through 14. 

The bottom line is that Marshall has taken advantage of their "pod" and finishing strong. They've now won four straight, scoring 85 or more pts in every game. Despite likely entering the C-USA Tournament as the probable 6-seed, there's a chance they could end the season actually tied for 2nd place in the standings, which is kinda unlucky. They've already beaten FAU once this season, 96-84 here in Huntington. They were 11-pt favorites for that game. Curiously, they are laying a lot less for the rematch. As stated in the previous writeup, Marshall has underachieved this season as they returned four starters from LY's 25-win team. FAU just took a brutal three-point home loss to La Tech on Wednesday following a six-day layoff. That makes this a pretty rough spot facing an opponent that's started to rediscover itself. 10* Marshall 

8* Golden State (10:35 ET): The last time that the top two teams in the Western Conference faced off, Denver was feeling pretty good about itself. They came in ahead of Golden State in the standings and had won 8 of their last 10 games. Plus, they were getting the Warriors at home. It quickly turned into a nightmare though w/ the Dubs erupting for a NBA-record 51 point 1st quarter en route to a 142-111 thrashing. I seriously doubt that things will be that one-sided again tonight, but the end result will be the same w/ Golden State coming out ahead by a comfortable margin.

Warriors HC Steve Kerr has come out and said that the team owes the paying customers at Oracle Arena a better effort. He was referring to the fact they just lost here at home to Boston, by 33 points, which was the worst home loss of the Kerr-era. Thus I suspect Denver is again likely to feel the wrath of Golden State here. I know that the Dubs have not been a great team to bet on this season (worst ATS record in the league!), but they are usually "money" coming off a SU loss. They are just 2-12 ATS their L14 games overall, so we're getting them at a cheap price as a result. 

This is a really important game considering the Warriors have just a one-game edge over the Nuggets on the standings. It's on ESPN. I don't expect Golden State to lose in such a spot and the pointspread just seems rather short. Despite the fact they haven't been nearly as dominant as past years, this year's Warriors still sport the second best efficiency rating and point differential in the league (trailing only Milwaukee in both categories). After losing four of their last six games outright, the Dubs should be in an ornery mood at Oracle tonight and looking to prove a point. 8* Golden State 

10* Memphis (8:00 ET): The Grizzlies are a team I've used w/ high frequency of late. That may seem odd, given where they currently reside at in the standings, but they're #2 in the league in scoring defense and almost always getting points. That's a solid combo and a big reason why they have covered three straight and four out of their last five. During that time, they've beaten the Lakers, Dallas (by 30!) and Portland. The two losses were by a combined six points. Their last four losses have been by a total of 17 pts. So in what figures to be a low-scoring game here vs. Utah, I'm grabbing the points.

Utah was able to avenge a loss to New Orleans its last time out. They had dropped the front end of a home and home w/ the Pelicans Monday, losing 115-112 at home. But they bounced back w/ a 114-104 win in the Big Easy Wednesday night. Note that Anthony Davis played only limited minutes in both games. Utah is a good team, but only a .500 proposition on the road, which makes laying points seem like a bad idea in this situation. Memphis is only giving up 102 PPG at home this year, so it shouldn't be much of a surprise that they are 9-6 ATS as a home dog. 

Excluding the second night of back to backs, Memphis has been a profitable team to bet on this season. They've also fared better against their own conference than they have against the East, which seems odd. Though most generally don't think of them this way, Utah has actually been an underachiever this season as they have been favored in 48 of their 64 games. I expect them to finish the season pretty well, but the Grizzlies have given them trouble, winning two of the previous three matchups (all took place before Thanksgiving). Interestingly, both times they won, the game was in Salt Lake City. The Jazz failed to top 100 points in all three games. 10* Memphis

10* Carolina (7:35 ET): The Hurricanes currently occupy one of the two "Wild Card" spots in the Eastern Conference, but they're margin for error is almost non-existent w/ Columbus (who lost last night) just two points back. The 'Canes are definitely one of the hotter teams in the East right now as they are 8-1-1 the L10 games, but they did just lose to the even hotter Bruins (9-0-1 L10) in overtime Tuesday night. Plus, the fact that the top three teams in the Metro are all on win streaks hasn't helped Carolina's cause either. They REALLY need a win here and I think they get it.

Winnipeg's future seems a lot more secure than Carolina's right now. All season long, the Jets have been battling the Predators for the top spot in the Central. They enter tonight one point out of first place. But it's not been a great stretch by any means for the contingent from Manitoba as they've lost six of their last nine games, including a humbling 5-2 setback at Tampa Bay on Tuesday. This club is nowhere near as dominant on the road (17-15 SU) as it is at home (22-8-4). Tonight is the third game of a four-game trip, which ends in Washington on Sunday. The Jets have been giving up a lot of shots lately, which could prove problematic against a team like Carolina.  

The Hurricanes have earned at least a point in 23 of their last 29 games, including six straight. Before this streak began, there were some key metrics pointing in their favor. No team in the league enjoys a greater advantage in shots on goal as the Canes are +6.6 in shots compared to their opponents on a per game basis. At home, that edge balloons to +7.9. Ironically, they've been scoring more on fewer shot attempts lately. Against Boston, they blew a two-goal lead, so that's a game they probably should have won. The biggest difference for Carolina between this year and past seasons has been the goaltending, which has been much better since the resurgence. 10* Carolina

8* Cornell (7:00 ET): Cornell has lost five in a row, the last four all coming out on the road and those four road losses got progressively worse (in terms of margin) as the trip wore on. It was a nine-point loss to Princeton, 18 pt loss to Penn, 23 pt loss to Yale and 24 pt loss to Brown. Fortunately, the Big Red get the final two games of the regular season at home. The first is against a Harvard team they already beat once, 67-61 as 9.5-point road dogs. Going by that line and result, it would certainly appear as if we're getting some solid value on the home dog for tonight's rematch. Take the points.

Harvard is tied w/ Yale for the conference lead and swept the regular season series, so they have the tiebreaker. That means all the Crimson need to do is win their final two games and they are Ivy League regular season champs. But these last two games are both on the road where they are just 6-7 SU this season and have been outscored. The Crimson have won three straight, but all three wins were by single digits and the last two came at home. They shot 51.2% in the 1st meeting w/ Cornell and still lost. I don't imagine they'll shoot that well again.

Cornell actually pulled off a stunning rally in upsetting Harvard the first time around, coming back from a 13-point halftime deficit to take the game outright. They scored 46 pts in the second half after scoring only 21 in the 1st. They did have almost a 2:1 edge in FT attempts, but that could very well be the case again tonight as they are playing at home. Something to keep in mind about Cornell is that they have played 17 of their 28 games on the road. They're a solid 7-4 SU at home and tonight will be just the fourth time they've gotten points in their own gym. 8* Cornell

10* Buffalo (6:00 ET): Though 19th ranked Buffalo has already clinched the MAC regular season title, expect no shortage of motivation from them Friday night. First off, it's Senior Night. Secondly, they'll be looking to avenge one of the two losses they suffered in conference play this year. This is the first time all season UB finds itself in a revenge spot. There was no rematch with the other MAC team they lost to (Northern Illinois). So Bowling Green should be forewarned that this final game of the regular season could get pretty ugly for them. Lay the points.

It was back on February 1st that Buffalo lost at BG, 92-88 as an eight-point road favorite. The loss to Northern Illinois was by just a single point, so this team is seven points away from being on the verge of completing a perfect MAC season. The Bulls' 27-3 (SU) record puts them as one of six teams in the country w/ an overall win % of .900 or better. They are perfect here at home (14-0), outscoring opponents by 23.2 PPG. They have outscored conference opponents by 14.2 PPG, whether it's home or the road. The first meeting w/ BG saw them blow an eight-point halftime lead. They haven't forgotten. 

Bowling Green has sputtered some down the stretch, losing three of its last four. Their last game was easily the worst performance of the season as they were drubbed by Akron, 91-67 (as 2.5-pt dogs). Giving up that many points to an offensively challenged team like Akron is not a good sign for tonight. The Zips shot nearly 58% from the floor and were 14 of 31 from three-point range despite coming in as the MAC's worst 3-pt shooting team. I realize that Buffalo is 0-3 ATS its last three games, but two were on the road. The Bulls were 15 of 34 from behind the arc in their last game. This is an experienced group, so Senior Night is a big deal, and a win here would set a new school record for a single season. 10* Buffalo

8* Illinois State (9:35 ET): The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament gets going Thursday and as always the event takes place in St. Louis. Tonight, the bottom four teams must play just to get into the quarterfinals. I like Illinois State's chances against last place Evansville. While the regular season didn't end particularly well for the Redbirds, they did sweep both meetings from Evansville. They won comfortably both times as well. So I don't think doing so a third time will be much trouble here. Evansville has posted only two SU wins since January 16th! Lay the points. 

One of those two Evansville victories came in the reg season finale, an upset of Valparaiso (on the road) as five-point underdogs. Ironically, the only two games that the Purple Aces won over the last two months both came at Valpo's expense. They'd lost seven in a row between the victories and are just 2-11 SU the L13 games overall. Last weekend's win was all the more surprising because Evansville had just one "true" road win prior to it. Following a SU win, the Purple Aces are just 2-8 SU, 3-6 ATS this season. I just don't see them winning B2B games at this juncture. 

Illinois State held Evansville to 38.2 and 32.7 percent shooting in its two regular season victories. The Redbirds have lost six of eight themselves and got somewhat of a "raw deal" having to play this extra tournament game as they finished tied w/ Northern Iowa for 6th, but lost the tiebreaker. Outside of Normal, ISU hasn't exactly been "gangbusters," but they did win at Evansville. They lost the regular season finale at Southern Illinois despite four players finishing in double digits. Interesting here to note is that Illinois State is 17-5 SU all-time in the MVC Tournament when playing an opponent they swept in the regular season. That includes 10 straight wins, four of them coming against Evansville. The Purple Aces are also short-handed w/ Dainius Chatkevicius still suspended. 8* Illinois State 

9* Dallas (8:35 ET): Given the current state of the Wild Card race in the NHL's Western Conference, this game should have a real "serious tone" to it. Dallas, by virtue of three consecutive victories, is in the position that Colorado wishes it was in. That being, holding one of the two WC spot. The Stars' 73 points have them in the top WC position while Minnesota (72 pts) would be the other WC. The Avs (70 pts) are on the outside looking in. In some respects, the Avs are a stronger team than the Stars. But they lack depth and are playing this one on the road. Dallas has double revenge and I think gets the job done tonight. 

Home ice is big here for Dallas, who is 20-10-2 SU at American Airlines Center. I think it's important to note though that two of the last three wins have come on the road, one against St. Louis. Following that impressive performance (won 4-1), they returned home and shutout the Rangers, 1-0. The Stars' defensive transformation (which started LY) has carried over into 2019 as the club now ranks 3rd in the league in goals allowed per game at 2.58. Coming off a shutout win, the team's record is 4-2 SU this season. While the Stars do often struggle to score, they have scored four goals in three of their last five games. 

Now Dallas is 0-2 vs. the Avalanche this season, but both games were played in Denver. Both were also played before the start of the new year (2019) when the Avs were looking a lot stronger. Since they last beat the Stars (on 12.15), the Avs have gone 11-17-6 SU overall. They did just win Tuesday, 4-2, but that was at home against a bad Detroit team. Off a game where it scored 4+ goals, Colorado is just 9-18 SU this season. Yes, they have the tremendous top line of MacKinnon-Landeskog-Rantanen. But beyond that, there just isn't much to like here. Dallas is one of the best defensive teams in the league and should keep that line in check. 9* Dallas

10* Over Blue Jackets/Penguins (7:05 ET): These Metropolitan Division rivals just met last week w/ the Penguins winning 5-2 in Columbus. They're about to get quite acquainted w/ one another as tonight is the front end of a home and home. There's a history of high-scoring games here as not only did that last meeting go Over, so too have five of the last six meetings. The Pens certainly have had no trouble scoring on the Blue Jackets during that time, tallying at least four goals in all six meetings. (They scored at least five goals five times). No slouch in scoring themselves, C-bus is 20-11 Over in all road games this season.

Surprisingly though, the Blue Jackets have been held to just four goals over their last three games. This is a really critical time for the club as they are trying to lock down at least a Wild Card. They just won in New Jersey, which was hardly emphatic as they needed a shootout in a game they were outshot 30-18. But I was happy as I took 'em. The win left the Blue Jackets two points back of the Wild Card, one of those spots being held by Pittsburgh. You'd like to think we'll see more offense from them here. The Over is 10-4 following the last 14 times the team was held to two goals or fewer in its previous game. 

Pittsburgh also needed extra time to get the two points in its last game. They beat Florida 3-2 to stay two points up in Columbus in the standings. The Pens are 5th in the league in goals per game (3.45) and given their past success when it comes to scoring against the Blue Jackets, I fully anticipate they'll score more than their "fair share" this evening. The Over has cashed in their last four division games and is 5-1 their last six games as a favorite. Over its last 12 games, Pittsburgh has been held under three goals just once and has scored at least four goals seven times. 10* Over Blue Jackets/Penguins

10* Coastal Carolina (7:00 ET): We're into the final week of the Sun Belt's regular season slate and both teams here figure to finish in the middle of the league's pack. Coastal Carolina's SBC record is 8-8 SU as they just pulled off a nice upset over the weekend, going on the road and beating La Monroe 97-91 as 5.5-point pups. South Alabama perhaps pulled off a bigger shocker, beating 1st place Texas State 77-63 as 3-pt dogs, albeit at home. This is a revenge spot for CC after losing by seven down in Mobile back in January. I think they get the job done in Thursday's rematch. Lay the points.

Coastal Carolina had dropped five of six before beating La Monroe Saturday. Devante Jones scored a season-high 30 pts for the Chanticleers in the upset and Zac Cuthbertson added 25. The win snapped a four-game losing streak on the road. But here at home Coastal Carolina is 8-3 SU and outscores opponents by a healthy 12.2 PPG. Their final two regular season games are both here in Conway. Note that if the Chanticleers were to sweep this week, then there is a chance they could finish fifth in the Sun Belt. They've covered four of their last five at home and are 14-5-1 ATS the L20 times off a SU win.

South Alabama really lucked out Saturday when Texas State's leading scorer Nijal Pearson (18 PPG) failed to make a single shot from the field (0 for 8). The Jaguars were able to pull away in the second half, but I certainly wouldn't look for them to shoot 62.8% from the floor again nor 10 of 17 from three-point range. They really killed Texas State from three-point range as the Bobcats were just 5 of 25. Note USA is just 2-9 SU on the road this season and sees their scoring average dip down to 68.2 PPG. The win over Texas State represents their best offensive game (in terms of shooting %) this entire season. 10* Coastal Carolina

10* Under Blues/Ducks (10:05 ET): A matchup involving the league's lowest scoring team seems pretty conducive to an Under, right? The fact that Anaheim has scored the fewest number of goals in the league has resulted in them having the worst goal differential (-57) as well. This even after winning B2B games, including a 3-1 victory last night in Arizona. Tonight is a tough assignment though as the Blues have had three days off compared to none for the Ducks. St. Louis was the hottest team in the league before dropping four of its last six games. Take the Under here. 

When it ripped off a franchise record 11 consecutive victories last month, St. Louis delivered four shutouts, including three in a row.  But they've predictably started to regress on the goals allowed side of the ledger, giving up nine in the last two games alone. Rookie Jordan Binnington was in many ways the catalyst for the Blues' second-half surge, but he gave up three goals on just 20 shots to Dallas on Saturday. He's expected to be back between the pipes tonight and I'll stay confident in him given his 15-3-1 record in 19 starts, 1.68 GAA and .933 save percentage.

Whether it's Binnington or Jake Allen in goal here for St. Louis, stopping Anaheim from scoring should not prove difficult. Over the last seven games, the Ducks have managed to scored only 10 goals, half of those coming in the L2 games. They've been shutout twice. The Under is 3-0 for the Ducks this month and 7-1 this season when playing the second night of a back to back. Even better is the fact they are 9-0 Under this season when coming off a win by two or more goals. Throw in the fact St. Louis is averaging just 1.6 gpg its last five games and you have a clear play on the Under here. 10* Under Blues/Ducks

8* Over Knicks/Suns (9:05 ET): The Suns have actually won three of their last four games, which includes shocking triumphs over the Lakers and Bucks. But tonight's opponent can attest to the fact that when you're a bad team, the "good times" don't often last for very long. It wasn't too long ago that the Knicks had won three of four, but they've since reverted back to their "past ways" by losing three straight. That leaves NY at a putrid 4-30 SU their L34 games. In a battle of teams w/ the worst SU records in their respective conferences, I expect plenty of points to be scored in this one. Take the Over.

Phoenix has scored no fewer than 112 pts in each of its last five games. But it was a stunning effort at the defensive end that was largely responsible for Monday's upset of the Bucks here at home. The Suns held Milwaukee, the league's 2nd highest scoring team to just 105 pts on 36.8% shooting. It was the second time upsetting the Bucks this season. But suffice to say such a defensive effort is quite "out of the ordinary" considering the Suns rank 28th in the league in points allowed and 29th in defensive efficiency. After B2B games (both wins) where they allowed fewer than their season average, expect Phoenix to regress tonight defensively. 

The Knicks have given up plenty of points recently. Five of their last six opponents have scored at least 115 and they too are a bottom five team in defensive efficiency for the season. The first time these teams met, which was back in December, saw the Suns prevail 128-110 in MSG. A similar combined point total here is definitely not out of the question considering neither side really has anything to play for and thus defense will be "lax." Honestly, with the two teams separated by just one-half game in the "race" for the league's worst record, the loser here is probably the ultimate winner. 8* Over Knicks/Suns 

10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): These two Southeast Division teams met twice in October and haven't played since. The Hornets took both games, a stark contrast to the way the rivalry had gone in recent seasons. Coming into 2018-19, the Heat had gone on a six-game SU win streak (5-0-1 ATS) at Charlotte's expense. Tonight's game might be as important as any of those prior contests. That's because the Hornets and Heat come into Wednesday tied for eighth place in the Eastern Conference. Despite sporting 29-34 records, they are actually tied for the division lead, one-half game up on Orlando. 

The Hornets can be incredibly maddening, particularly when it comes to their shortcomings in "close games." Over the L3 seasons, the team's record in games decided by three points or less is an unfathomable 4-24 SU. They come into tonight having dropped 8 of 11 overall, including 118-108 here at home to Portland on Monday. But even w/ that loss, Charlotte is still 20-13 SU on its homecourt, a vast improvement from their 9-21 SU road record. Another positive is that the Hornets are 7-3 ATS their L10 games vs. teams w/ a losing record. 

Miami has dropped 9 of 11 (w/ three 3-game losing skids), but has since rebounded to win three of its last four games. The latest win came by just a point over Atlanta, 114-113, even though they outshot the Hawks 55.7% to 41.8%. (The key was Atlanta taking and making far more threes). The Heat's last two losses were both by only three points. So them taking the court as underdogs might seem tempting. But the Heat are only 1-9 ATS their previous 10 division games. They've also only had to play two road games since the All-Star Break. 10* Charlotte 

10* Marshall (7:00 ET): Conference USA adopted a strange format for determining its seedings for the upcoming tournament in Frisco, TX. Rather than play a traditional schedule, teams were grouped into three "pods" after everyone played 14 league games. If you were a top five team after the 14-game mark, you were assured no worse than a top five seed for the conference tourney, but would only play fellow top five teams for the remainder of the regular season. The same thing holds true for the teams that were 6 through 10 in the standings after that 14-game mark. Both FIU and Marshall are in that "pod," meaning upward mobility is limited to the sixth seed, no matter how well either team plays down the stretch. Strange times, indeed.

Sure enough, both of these teams have picked up their level of play since the "pod" format started. FIU has won four straight while Marshall is on a three-game win streak. Thus, both are now actually tied for 4th place in C-USA w/ 9-7 SU records, even though (again) neither can be seeded higher than 6th. Confused yet? Well, let's get to what you NEED to know here. Marshall already beat FIU once this year, 105-97 (no overtime!) and for a second time will get to host them here in Huntington. That's a big edge considering the Thundering Herd are 10-3 SU at home this season and averaging 87.5 PPG. FIU is just 5-7 SU in "true" road games this year, giving up 85.7 PPG. 

This "pod" format created some unique scheduling spots and for Marshall, they actually had a 12-day break. They responded by upsetting both La Tech and North Texas on the road as 7 and 5.5-point dogs respectively. This was a 25-win team LY that brought back four starters. So it's been a bit of a disappointing year, particularly at the betting window where before the B2B upsets, they'd failed to cover 10 in a row. But the Herd seems back on track now and I like them laying a shorter number than what they laid in the first matchup w/ FIU. Unlike the previous two times they've taken the floor, FIU hasn't had at least a week off between games. 10* Marshall 

10* Under Rockets/Raptors (8:05 ET): So I cashed the Under on Houston's last game, which for them was an outright win in Boston (115-104 as 2.5-pt dogs). It's a similar total (and pointspread) for tonight's game in Toronto and I'm sticking w/ the Under. The Rockets may have won five straight, averaging 118.2 PPG in the process, but I don't see them hitting that number here as the Raptors are allowing just 107.9 PPG at home for the season. Note that Toronto's last game, a 112-107 loss in Detroit, went to overtime. So the number of total points scored there is a bit misleading. 

Toronto is a top seven team in defensive efficiency. The key here for them will be keeping James Harden in check. Harden registered 58 pts in a come from behind victory over Miami last Thursday before scoring 42 more against Boston. That's 100 pts in two games, but note in the two games prior he had been held to 17 of 50 shooting, including an absolutely woeful 1 of 21 from three-point range. So I expect Harden's scoring to curtail some here tonight. He did not shoot the ball well in the first meeting w/ the Raptors (9 of 25) even though the Rockets still won 121-119.

Toronto was tied w/ Detroit 100-100 at the end of regulation Sunday, so Over bettors got a real "break" there. The Raptors shot only 38.5% from the floor in the loss, but that was after shooting 55.6% in a win over Portland the game prior. They'll finish somewhere in between tonight. The Under is 7-3 the L10 times Toronto has allowed 100+ points in their previous game. This total just looks too high to me as it's two top tier teams playing on national TV, which should mean more defensive intensity from both sides. 10* Under Rockets/Raptors 

10* Green Bay (8:00 ET): This will be the third time in three weeks that I'm siding w/ the Phoenix. The first two have gone quite well as I had them in wins over Detroit and Wright State. The latter was an upset as a 4-point dog just last week. Both games were here at home as is this one, which is the opener of the Horizon League Tournament. They draw a UIC team they beat twice during the regular season, both times by five points or less, but I expect the rubber match to be the easiest win of them all as Green Bay seems to be "peaking" at the right time. Lay the points.

As I talked about each of those last two times I played Green Bay, they are a much better team here at home. They've gone 11-3 SU here, averaging 87.1 PPG. Equally as important as those offensive numbers though is how the defense improves. While the Phoenix give up 85.6 PPG on the road, a pretty frightening number, they are only allowing 75.0 at home. The fact they are outscoring opponents by double digits here at home for the season makes getting home court advantage for this 1st round Horizon League matchup so critical.

The last time these teams played, Green Bay staged a dramatic rally, coming back from a 19-point halftime deficit. That was on the road, just 10 days ago. That game saw the Phoenix held to a season-low 20 points in the 1st half, which won't happen here. They won the season's first meeting 90-85 here at home. UIC is not a good road team, so them being the lower seed definitely hurts. They are 4-11 SU/ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by more than seven points per game. I know they were dominating (for the 1st half) the last time they played Green Bay, but that was at home. This spread is way too low. 10* Green Bay

8* Chicago (7:05 ET): Indiana was a team I expected to regress after they had gone an extremely fortunate 11-2 SU in games decided by three points or less last season. But for much of this season, it appeared as if the team might actually IMPROVE upon last year's 48-win total. Then Victor Oladipo went down w/ a season-ending injury. The Pacers lost the first four games w/o Oladipo, but then shockingly would go on to win the next six and eight of nine overall. But they've started to slip again, losing three of four, and I'll grab the points in tonight's matchup w/ the Bulls as I think Indiana is a vulnerable favorite here. 

Now Chicago is by no means a good team. But they do come into this evening having gone a very solid 5-2 SU/ATS their last seven games. They did just fail at an attempt to sweep a home and home w/ fellow bottom-dwellar Atlanta on Sunday, losing 123-118. That came on the heels of a wild 4OT affair two nights prior when they beat the Hawks 168-161 in the third highest scoring game in NBA history. The Bulls are 0-3 SU vs. the Pacers this season, but all three losses have been by six points or less and this is the first time they'll get to face them since the Oladipo injury took place.

The Pacers are off a loss here as they fell right here at home to Orlando Saturday night, 117-112 as three-point favorites. That game saw the team get clearly bothered by the officiating, which irked HC Nate McMillan. But Indiana also allowed Orlando to shoot 50% from the floor, which you don't see very often by a Pacers' opponent. Another key player in handicapping this game is Otto Porter Jr, who the Bulls acquired at the trade deadline from Washington. They are 6-2 SU w/ Porter in the lineup and 0-2 when he sits. He sat Sunday, but will be back tonight. Something else worth noting is that Indiana is just 4-8 ATS in division games this season. 8* Chicago

6* Columbus (7:05 ET): This is a battle between one of the five teams in the Metro battling for a playoff spot and the team that has spent the majority of the year in last place in the division. Columbus has fallen into fifth place and right now would NOT be a Wild Card team as they trail both the Pens and the Canadiens (over in the Atlantic) by two points. Thus a win tonight is paramount. As you can tell by the ML, winning tonight shouldn't be too hard. The Devils have not only lost three straight overall, they have lost each of the last five times hosting the Blue Jackets. 

Now C-bus comes into this game off B2B losses as well. They weren't exactly competitive in either loss, losing 4-0 to Edmonton and 5-2 to Winnipeg. Both of those games were on home ice too! But the Blue Jackets have been a surprisingly good road team this year w/ a 19-10-1 record away from home. Only three teams in the entire league have better win percentages away from home - Tampa Bay, Toronto and Calgary. One could make the case that those are the three best teams in the league. Note that Columbus has had only one losing streak of three or more games all season. 

New Jersey has had plenty of losing streaks this season and the current one has seen them tally only four goals in three games. They got shutout in Boston Saturday, losing 1-0, while being held to only 20 shots. There just aren't a whole lot of positives to report w/ this club right now and they haven't fared well against the Blue Jackets in three meetings this season, losing all of them by a combined score 9-2. Two were in Ohio, but as mentioned before, they've dropped five in a row when hosting the Blue Jackets. They've dropped 9 of the previous 11 meetings overall. 6* Columbus

10* Utah (9:05 ET): Both of these teams come off somewhat improbable wins. A career-night from Donovan Mitchell (46 pts) led to the Jazz coming back from a 17-point deficit and beating Milwaukee 115-111. Note they were actually five-point favorites in that game and it was their fourth straight win. New Orleans, without Anthony Davis, was able to forge an even bigger comeback Saturday night in Denver. Down by as many as 19, the Pelicans won that game 120-112 as 13.5-pt underdogs. So something is going to have to give here. I'm banking on the more consistent commodity, that being Utah. Lay the points. 

The Jazz are currently 6th in the West, but this is a team that is capable of doing some real damage come playoff time. The last two games have seen them beat two of the top teams in the league, Denver and Milwaukee. Defense has been outstanding the last four games w/ every opponent held under a 42.4 FG%. Here at home, this has been an excellent team. They've won eight of nine, including five straight, to improve to 21-10 SU here for the year. The are already outscoring visitors by 6.6 PPG. 

New Orleans has been able to deal w/ the Anthony Davis distraction to remain relevant in the playoff race. But if they have an issue, it's winning on the road. Yes, they've just won at both Phoenix and Denver. But that's only improved their road record to 11-24 SU. Tonight will be their third road game in four nights. They give up 116.4 PPG on the road and are a bottom five team in the league in overall points allowed. Utah has massive edges when it comes to the defensive end and getting this game at home. 10* Utah

10* Over Maple Leafs/Flames (9:05 ET): Two of the league's best collide tonight in Alberta where the Western Conference leading Flames play host to the Maple Leafs. Toronto has almost no shot of catching Tampa Bay for the division lead over in the Atlantic, but really needs to focus on finishing second as that would give them home ice advantage for what appears to be an inevitable 1st round playoff series w/ Boston. Winning tonight will NOT come easy given Calgary has gone 20-6-5 SU here on home ice this season. But what should be a pretty easy proposition is this game finishing Over the total. These are two of the highest scoring teams in the league. 

Calgary saw its seven game win streak come to an end Saturday when they suffered a rare home loss to Minnesota. They gave up four goals in that contest, equaling the number they allowed in the previous four games combined. They themselves have not topped three goals in any of their last five games. Thus, the Under is 4-0-1 w/ the push coming in Saturday's loss to the Wild. But I expect the Flames to break out of that mini scoring "slump" tonight. After all, they are a top four team in the league in goals per game and no team has scored more times in home games (4.1 per game) this season.

Toronto ranks just ahead of Calgary in overall scoring (3.58 gpg) at third overall. The Over has cashed in each of their last five games and in their case, it's been them doing most of the scoring. They've won four of those five games and scored at least five goals in every win. The one loss was by a score of 6-1 to the Islanders. Every Maple Leafs game during this stretch has seen at least seven total goals scored. The Over is 6-1 the L7 times Toronto has been coming off a game where they scored at least five goals. They just beat Buffalo 5-2 on Saturday. 10* Over Maple Leafs/Flames 

8* Over Kansas State/TCU (9:00 ET): Few would have expected Kansas State to be in the position that they're currently in after they got off to an 0-2 start in Big 12 play. But, buoyed by one of the nation's top defensive efficiency ratings, the Wildcats have won 12 of their last 14 conference games and enter the final week of the regular season w/ a chance to win the outright conference title. If they win the next two games, they'll do no worse than share the honor w/ Texas Tech. But to do that, they'll certainly have to play better than they did last week when they went 0-2 ATS vs. Kansas and Baylor.

TCU is a team that had high hopes coming into 2018-19. But I didn't really view them as a Top 25 squad and they were a fade for me in the early part of the season. Tonight is the Horned Frogs' final home game and they've lost five of their last six. They too have not had a great last seven days. After losing 104-96 to West Virginia (triple overtime game), they had little left in the tank for a very good Texas Tech team, who beat them 81-64. The Horned Frogs allowed nearly 57% shooting in that loss, which took place right here in Ft. Worth. 

More often that not, Kansas State holds its opponents under its season scoring average. They certainly did that to TCU in the first meeting, winning 65-55 in Manhattan. The Horned Frogs average over 75 PPG for the season and the Over is 7-3 in their last 10 games. Kansas State, as good as they are defensively, is 6-3 Over its last nine games. Two of the three Unders came last week. It was a dismal offensive showing at home vs. Kansas and then a slow start in a win (but non-cover) over Baylor. Even though this game is on the road, I expect better offense here from the Wildcats. Dean Wade is back and looking healthy. He scored 20 points vs. Baylor. The Under is 4-0 in the L4 meetings w/ TCU, but I anticipate a much more high scoring game than the last one here tonight. 8* Over Kansas State/TCU

10* Washington (6:05 ET): The Wizards simply could not find any offensive rhythm Friday night vs. Boston as they shot just 40% from the field and lost 107-96. That was just fine by me as I was holding an Under ticket. But for the Wiz themselves, the loss dropped them four games off the playoff pace in what has been quite the disappointing season. Tonight, they're back home and that's ultimately the key here as neither they or their Sunday opponent (Minnesota) is a very good road team. The T'wolves have lost two in a row on the road and I played against them both times. Let's make that three. Lay the short number. 

Washington has just one win in its last six games. Ironically, it was on the road against Brooklyn. But note they've gotten only one of those last six games at home. It was against Indiana and they were in the second night of a back to back. Tonight, they're rested and home, the first time in this situation since a Feb 8 win and cover against Cleveland. The Wiz are a respectable 16-12 SU at home this season (16-11-1 ATS). While far from the most dominant home court edge in the league, it's still a far cry from their somewhat heinous 8-25 SU (9-23-1 ATS) road record. 

Speaking of heinous road records, Minnesota is now just 9-23 SU away from the Twin Cities after losses to Atlanta and Indiana earlier this week. They won just one road game in February and it was against woeful Knicks. They've given up at least 122 pts in each of their last five road losses and are just 4-17 SU when priced as the road underdog this season. Both teams badly need this game, but Washington is the lucky one to get it at home. They are 14-7 SU at the Verizon Center since 11.20 and 4th in league in PPG at home w/ 117.0. They are +2.8 pts per 100 possessions here while Minnesota is -4.5 points per 100 possessions on the road. 10* Washington

10* Georgia Tech (6:00 ET): The Yellow Jackets have never been a contender in the rugged ACC this season and will come into the final week of the regular season sporting a 4-12 SU record in conference play. They've lost 9 of 10, but today is Senior Day in Atlanta and that should provide some motivation to win the final home game. Their only SU win in those L10 games was here at home, over Pitt, on 2.20. I have to say that Georgia Tech "feels" like it should be better considering they rank in the top 30 nationally in defensive efficiency. Of that top 30, you can expect almost every team to make the NCAA Tournament.

Earlier this week, the Yellow Jackets had no answer for one of the top teams in the country, Virginia, who smashed them 81-51. It was the Jackets' second straight double digit road loss. But as mentioned above, this is a home game and the final one at that for the departing senior class. Given there will be no major postseason tournament for this team, expect them to treat this as the biggest game of the season. Giving up only 63.7 PPG at home is a nice foundation for Ga Tech. Interesting is that the last two games with a spread of two points or less, they won both. 

Boston College comes in here having covered five in a row and they just upset Louisville in Chesnut Hill Wednesday. That makes the Eagles ripe for a letdown though, at least in my eyes. They've got two regular season games left, both of which will be at home, and the next one is North Carolina. It will be very easy for the Eagles to overlook this game. This is a team that has won just three of its last nine games straight up. They were lucky that L'ville couldn't make a shot on Wednesday. But this isn't a great defensive team by any means nor are they great offensively. Ga Tech opponents are shooting below 40% for the year. 10* Georgia Tech

8* Under Rockets/Celtics (3:30 ET): It wasn't pretty, but Boston finally got a win Friday night (their 1st since the All-Star Break!) by beating Washington (here at home), 107-96 as 9.5-pt chalk. Their own co-owner just referred to February as the "worst" he can remember. Maybe that's overstating things, but the team has been a disappointment. But I still wouldn't be surprised to see them make a move up the Eastern Conference standings before the end of the regular season. Things won't be easy today, however, as the Rockets come calling for a nationally televised home game.

Houston has won its last four games, scoring at least 118 points every time, but all four wins were relatively close (none greater than eight points). On Thursday, they needed every bit of James Harden's 58 points to overcome a 21-point 2H deficit and beat the Heat 121-118. That came on the heels of another 2H comeback, albeit not quite as dramatic, against Charlotte the night prior. Despite the high scores, the Rockets have not shot the ball particularly well during this win streak. In fact, their 49.4 FG% vs. Miami was their highest in a game since a win back on 2/1 vs. Denver. 

Because they're facing the Rockets, this is a high total for a Celtics game. Of course, it's not quite as high as it was for their last game vs. Washington, which was my Total of the Week. I had the Under and that was never in doubt as the teams stayed 28 points clear of the number. Boston remains a top four team in the league in defensive efficiency, which will be key moving forward. Each of their last three games have stayed Under, but that also has just as much to do w/ the fact they were held below 100 pts in two of the games. They've failed to score 100 in three of their five games since the All-Star Break. 8* Under Rockets/Celtics

8* Washington (12:35 ET): The Capitals enter the day in a first place tie w/ the Islanders for first place in the Metro. The Isles will play later in the afternoon (host Philly), so getting two points here is a necessity for the team from the Nation's Capital. The Metro has developed into quite the tight race, but the Caps have definitely stepped up recently w/ three consecutive wins. The latest was against the Islanders (at home) Friday and the first of the three was against today's opponent, New York's "other team." The Rangers have lost three in a row in what continues to be a lost season for them.

In their three straight losses, NY has given up 14 goals. This is not a good team nor was it expected to be coming into what was generally regarded as a "rebuilding" season. The irony is things could be even worse were it not for a league-leading six shootout victories. But a little further irony here is that extra time has not been kind to the Blueshirts when facing Washington. They have not beaten the Capitals since December of 2017, losing five straight times to their division rivals w/ three of those defeats coming in OT. Overall, they are 0-6-1 vs. the Capitals in the last seven meetings. 

Alex Ovechkin's eight-game point streak is what's grabbing the headlines in D.C., but really the Caps are getting contributions from just about everyone. Their last 16 goals have come from 11 different players. Overall, the team is 10-4-1 its L15 games as it seems to have fully recovered from a seven-game skid in late January. They are the sixth highest scoring team in the league right now. They tallied six goals in the OT win over the Rangers exactly one week ago and quite frankly the Rangers were lucky to earn a point as they trailed by two goals in the third period and didn't get the equalizer until the final minute of regulation. 8* Washington

10* Memphis (8:35 ET): Dallas snapped a five-game (SU and ATS) losing streak on Wednesday w/ a 110-101 win over Indiana. The Mavs are a team that plays significantly better at home (21-10 SU) than on the road (6-24 SU) and they'll be hosting Memphis tonight. But the role of favorite hasn't been all that kind to the Mavs. The last time they were asked to lay points, they lost outright - here at home - to Miami by double digits. The Grizzlies, with the top scoring defense in the Western Conference, should certainly be able to "stay in" this game and have a great shot at pulling the outright upset. Take the points. 

Memphis is off a bad home loss to Chicago Wednesday night, which was their fifth loss in the last six games. Note, however, that four of those losses have been by six points or less. The team is w/o top draft choice Jaren Jackson Jr for the foreseeable future, but that defense should be able to keep them in most games, including this one. The Grizz allow just 104.1 PPG, so as an underdog, they're still an attractive wager. Note that when playing on exactly two days rest this season, the team's SU and ATS record is 8-3. 

Dallas has traded away four starters in an attempt to build for the future. In what projects to be a pretty low scoring game (by modern NBA standards), taking the points just seems like the right way to go here. Despite being division rivals, Memphis and Dallas have met only one time previous to this in 2018-19 and it was the Grizzlies winning 98-88 at home back on November 19th. That time, the Grizzlies were playing the second night of a back to back. With a pretty tough stretch of upcoming games, Memphis should come in really focused tonight. 10* Memphis 

10* Over Senators/Lightning (7:05 ET): It may sound a little crazy, but Tampa Bay is more than capable of sending this game Over by itself. The league-leading Lightning (102 points) also lead the league in goals scored with 253 and are facing an Ottawa team that just fired its HC and also has given up the most goals in the league. Thus it's not really a surprise that we have the highest money line for a single game all season. The number of goals allowed by the Senators on the road is really frightening and thus this one could get ugly in a hurry. A play on the Lightning obviously has little value, but a play on the Over sure does.

The fact Tampa Bay is off a loss does Ottawa no favors here either. The Lightning were beaten 4-1 up in Boston Thursday night, their 1st loss since February 7th. In between those two losses, they won 10 in a row, scoring at least four goals in eight of those games. TB averages 4.2 goals per game at home and facing a team that gives up 4.5 per game on the road, they should have little difficulty exceeding that average tonight. Not only does Ottawa give up the most goals per game in the league, they also permit the most shots. The Lightning are going to have plenty of opportunities to score in this one.

The Sens come into tonight as losers of six straight, which is why Guy Boucher was shown the door. In those six games, they were outscored 28-12 w/ seven of those goals scored coming in one game. If they can score a few times here, it would be the icing on the cake. Note that each of the previous six meetings have gone Over and the last one actually saw Ottawa win 6-4 here in TB! All six games saw at least seven total goals scored. The Lightning did allow 41 shots on goal in Thursday's loss to the Bruins. 10* Over Senators/Lightning 

10* Under Kentucky/Tennessee (2:00 ET): I was on UK in the 1st meeting, which was definitely a "statement game" by the Wildcats, who ended up winning 86-69 as four-point home favorites. They haven't lost since and, in fact, are 13-1 their last 14 games (only loss coming to LSU on a last-second tip-in). Coach Cal's team is definitely rounding into "Final Four form," but today they've got to go to Knoxville where Tennessee has not lost all season. After starting the year 23-1 SU, the Vols have lost two of their last four games. This should be a low-scoring struggle as I'm on the Under. 

The first game saw Kentucky shoot a blistering 54% from the field en route to 86 points. That was NOT the most points allowed by Tennessee in any game all season as Kansas scored 87 against them early in the year (a loss) as did Arkansas (a win). Memphis even scored 92 on them in another game the Vols won. So they've definitely had their share of high-scoring games. But at home, they are giving up only 60.9 PPG. So look for a rather dramatic decrease in Kentucky scoring today (compared to the 1st matchup). Tennessee opponents are shooting below 40% for the year.

Kentucky is an excellent defensive team. They rank top 10 nationally in efficiency and they are holding SEC opponents to just 38.7% shooting. Ten of their last eleven games have gone Under, the game vs. Tennessee being the lone exception. The Under had been 13-4-2 the past 19 meetings. Tennessee is also 18-8 Under following an ATS loss. Both teams struggled in victories earlier this week, having to overcome halftime deficits. In those last 11 games, UK has not allowed more than 72 points. 10* Under Kentucky/Tennessee

10* Arkansas (1:00 ET): The Razorbacks were able to end a six-game ATS losing streak on Tuesday w/ a surprisingly competitive effort against Kentucky as they lost by only four at Rupp Arena. But at the end of the day, it was still the Hogs' sixth straight up loss in a row. They've faced a fairly rugged gauntlet of late, only getting two games here in Fayatteville since their last win, which came on February 5th vs. Vandy. Today shapes up as their best shot at victory in a while as they host an Ole Miss squad that has be emotionally drained coming off a tough loss to Tennessee. I'm backing the home team in this one! 

Ole Miss lost by two to Tennesse, at home, a game which ended in protest after a questionable call went against them to seal the deal. Ironically, in a one-poing win over Georgia last weekend, it a was a protest BEFORE the game that caught attention as the Rebels' players kneeled during the national anthem over pro-Confederate rallies that were taking place near the arena. Thus, it's been a real whirlwind of emotions lately and this just reeks of a trap game as the Rebels just got done taking one top 10 team down to the wire and have another (Kentucky) set to come to Oxford next week. This is commonly referred to as a "sandwich spot" and it's not an enviable position for the road team.

Back on January 19th, these teams met in Oxford w/ Ole Miss prevailing 84-67 as 6.5-pt chalk. It was one of Arkansas' worst performances of the season as they never led. At the time, Ole Miss was ranked #18 in the country, but they've since fallen out of the polls. Like Ole Miss did against Tennessee, Arkansas led much of the way against Kentucky, even going up by as many as 15 (on the road!). I just look at the Razorbacks as a team that's lost so many close calls against top tier opponents (eight loss by 6 pts or less!) that they're due to break through one of these times. 10* Arkansas

10* Under Wizards/Celtics (8:05 ET): Washington has gone Over the total in 10 straight games. So it's no surprise we've got a high total Friday night in Boston. But the Wizards are highly unlikely to put together the same kind of offensive performance they turned in Wednesday night in Brooklyn (scored 125 points). That was just their NINTH road win of the year and previously the Wiz had lost four in a row overall. Tonight's matchup is pretty conducive to an Under considering the Celtics are a defensive-minded team, but have failed to score even 100 points in three of their four games since the All-Star Break. 

Boston's struggles are front and center in the league right now. They are 0-4 since the Break and there's been a lot of finger-pointing. The most recent setback came Wednesday, here at home vs. Portland. They lost that game 97-92 even though they held the Blazers to 35% shooting in the first half. Portland also really struggled in the game from three-point range. If there is one "silver lining" for the Celtics, it's that they still rank fifth in the league in defensive efficiency. But anytime you fail to score 100 pts three times in a four-game span, offense is a real concern.

So this is obviously a very high total. It's just the second game all year for Boston w/ an OU line of 230 pts or more. The previous high was 232, set on 1/26 vs. Golden State. That game, a 115-111 loss, did stay Under. While 12 of the last 16 meetings w/ the Wizards have gone Over, including seven of eight here in Beantown, the OU line for the last meeting was substantially lower than it is tonight. We're talking a double digit change from the oddsmakers. While that last game resulted in final score of 130-125, it was an overtime game that saw 30 pts scored in the extra five minutes. 10* Under Wizards/Celtics 

8* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): These two Eastern Conference playoff contenders just met a week ago, in Charlotte, with the Nets winning 117-115. D'Angelo Russell matched a career-high w/ 40 pts in that game, including the go-ahead three-pointer in the final minute. That was just one of a number of close losses Charlotte has suffered this season. They lead the league w/ 10 losses by three points or less. That doesn't even include Wednesday's painful setback at the hands of Houston where they lost 118-113 as five-point home underdogs after blowing a 12-point second half lead. 

Brooklyn is also off a loss here. They too fell at home Wednesday night, to the Wizards, 125-116 in a game they were favored to win by five. Things started well w/ the Nets racing out to an early 10-0 lead. But it was all downhill from there as they ended up trailing by as many as 28 at one point! I expect a strong bounce back effort tonight. That was just the third SU loss (in 19 tries) for the Nets as a favorite this season. They are a perfect 2-0 ATS when off a SU loss as a favorite. Despite Wednesday's loss, they remain in sixth place in the East and now are getting Spencer Dinwiddie back (has been out since 1/23). With Caris LeVert also back in the fold, this is as close to "full strength" as the Nets have been all season. 

Charlotte now has some work to do as they've fallen out of the top eight in the East. They've lost three in a row overall - all at home. Losing three in a row on your own court is obviously a HUGE missed opportunity. But especially so for the Hornets, who are only 8-21 SU on the road. This is one of those situation where I'm NOT buying into the revenge angle. If Charlotte couldn't beat the Nets at home, I don't see them getting the job done in Brooklyn. This is the 4th head to head meeting of the season and the Nets have won two of the previous three. 8* Brooklyn

10* Rider (7:00 ET): Rider's attempt at a late season renaissance continues Friday w/ a home date against the first place team in the MAAC, Iona. At one point, the Broncs were 5-0 SU and leading the conference themselves. But a shocking mid-season swoon very nearly derailed them. From January 19th to February 12th, they went 0-9 at the betting window and 3-6 straight up. They were favored in all nine games. Many of those games were the second time they'd faced a conference foe, which is also the case tonight. But this is a rare revenge spot for the Broncs, who lost at Iona 77-71 (as 2.5-pt favorites) on January 25th. 

Despite that mid-season swoon, winning the MAAC regular season title is still in play for the Broncs. They are 10-6 SU in conference play, which is one-half game back of Iona. So a win tonight would mean more than just "revenge." But the revenge angle is pretty strong here. When Rider lost to Iona last month, it was their 1st conference loss. At the time, no one could have foreseen what would ensue. But the Broncs have turned things around. They come into tonight on a three-game win streak, including a 16-pt win over Niagara last Friday. They are now 10-2 SU at home. 

Given Rider was a 2.5-pt favorite at Iona last month, we're getting some good value for this rematch. Sure, the oddsmakers had to make some sort of adjustment, but this looks to be an overreaction. Yes, Iona has won six straight, covering the spread in the last five. But a good number of those wins were close games. At one point, the Gaels were just 2-12 SU away from home this season. They are still allowing 80.2 PPG on the road. Rider lost a good number of close ones during their losing streak and they are much better than their record. When seeking revenge for a road loss, the Broncs are 11-3 ATS the L3 seasons. 10* Rider

10* Green Bay (7:00 ET): On a six-game win streak, Wright State has improbably climbed to the top of the Horizon League. It wasn't that long ago that I was writing the Raiders had been an "unlucky team" early in the season, dropping six games by six points or less. But that "worm has turned" as they have four such WINS during a 10-1 SU stretch. As good as this team feels right now, I think there ought to be some trepidation about laying points w/ them on the road. While 14-2 SU (10-3-1 ATS) at the Nutter Center this season, Wright State is just 4-9 SU away from home. 

Green Bay is a team that won big for me two Saturdays ago. I released them as a ~SIGNATURE~ *10* ULTIMATE POWER release here at home vs. Detroit and they won 82-73, more importantly also covering as a short favorite. The Phoenix won their next game too, on the road, by just one over UIC. But they came up short on Sunday, losing by 11 at IUPUI, despite holding a slight advantage at halftime. Like Wright State, Green Bay plays a lot better here at home. They're 10-2 SU, averaging an impressive 89.0 PPG. Not only is that markedly better than how much they score per game on the road (75.6), we see similar improvement on the defensive end. They give up just 74.8 PPG at home as opposed to 85.6 PPG on the road. 

I think the home court edge is critical here and you have the revenge angle in play as well. Back on January 26th, Green Bay lost at Wright State by a score of 87-75. As you might expect, the Raiders shot the ball well at home (55 percent) while the Phoenix struggled to find their own rhythm. But it should be a reversal of fortunes tonight as Green Bay's scoring differential goes from -10.0 per game on the road to +14.3 at home. Wright State averages 8.6 PPG less on the road than at home while they allow 8.1 PPG more. 10* Green Bay 

10* Indiana (7:05 ET): Both of these teams lost last night and for me, that meant two very different emotions. I happened to fade Minnesota, who I said "wasn't a very good road team" and sure enough they lost outright (as a 4.5-pt favorite) in Atlanta. Unfortunately, I took Indiana and the Pacers lost to the Mavericks. For tonight, Indiana is back at home while Minnesota is still on the road. That's a big edge for the former, even as they continue to trek on w/o leading scorer Victor Oladipo. The T'wolves' road record is now just 9-22 SU. When it comes to playing the second night of a back to back, that's an edge for the Pacers too. They are 8-3 SU in this scenario while Minny is only 2-6 SU. 

Tonight will be Indiana's first home game since their first game after the All-Star Break. They won that previous home game, beating New Orleans by a score of 126-111. The Pacers' home record is 23-8 SU and they outscore the opposition here by nearly 10 PPG. In last night's analysis, I touted the Pacers defense (and rightly so!), only for the offense to let me down (they scored only 101 pts). That defense gets even stingier here at home, allowing just 99.2 PPG. Again, Indiana ranks #1 in the league in scoring defense. This is the first time all month that they will be coming off B2B losses. 

In addition to being better in the second game of a back to back and having the home court edge, Indiana's edge defensively will be even larger than usual in this matchup. Minnesota gives up 115.7 PPG on the road, which obviously ranks near the bottom of the league. Obviously, the fact last night's game went to OT has to be factored in, but the T'wolves did just give up 131 pts to a pretty bad offensive team last night. Then there's the simple fact they played an overtime game last night. That makes the back to back scenario even more challenging than usual. Minnesota did win the season's first meeting w/ Indiana, but that was back in October and they have not swept a season series since 2006-07. The T'wolves are 0-6 SU when playing on the road in the second game of a back to back. The Pacers are 6-0 SU when playing one at home. 10* Indiana

8* Orlando (7:05 ET): As they are wont to do, Golden State started slow last night before mounting a big comeback. Only this time, they couldn't pull it out. They lost down in Miami on a buzzer beater, from Dwyane Wade of all people. It was a miracle shot, but don't let that mask the fact the Warriors trailed by as many as 24 to a team that had just lost at home to the lowly Suns. The Dubs have the worst ATS record in the league (25-35-1 ATS) and as good as they are, I don't like the idea of them, unrested, laying this many points on the road to a rested Orlando squad. Take the points. 

The Magic are also looking to recover from a bad loss here, the only difference being they've had a full day off to recover. In their case, they lost 108-103 to the Knicks on Tuesday as 7.5-point road favorites. I know New York is really bad, but Orlando probably shouldn't be giving that many points to anybody, at least on the road. It was their second loss to a "bad" team in the L3 games as they also fell to Chicago last week (at home). In between, however, they pulled a big upset in Toronto, beating the Raptors 113-98 as 6.5-point road underdogs.

Tonight, the Magic are back home and in their customary role of underdog. This is a team that has lost only twice in its last eight games and those two losses came by a combined six points. Golden State has not been good in the second game of a back to back, going just 2-5-1 ATS this season. Orlando's bench was outscored by a stunning 75-7 margin by its Knicks counterparts on Tuesday as they blew a double digit 2H lead. Note that earlier in the year, the Magic were competitive against the Warriors, losing by only six on the road. It took 49 points from Kevin Durant for the Dubs to win that game. This is a terrible spot for the Champs and I like the home dog. 8* Orlando

8* Arkansas Little Rock (7:00 ET): Arkansas Little Rock will do its two-game trek through the Peach State this week as it visits the Sun Belt's two Georgia schools. Up first is Georgia Southern, who is looking to win this league as is the team Ark Little Rock will play Saturday, Georgia State. There has been no previous meeting this season. Ark Little Rock having to travel does put them at a distinct disadvantage, but this is too many points to pass up. While Georgia Southern does come in on a four-game win streak (also 4-0 ATS), the double digit spread seems a bit high. Take the points. 

The Eagles have largely been feasting on the bottom of the SBC recently. The only previous time they were a double digit favorite this year was against last place Troy. On the flip side of that, Arkansas Little Rock hasn't gotten double digits since a game (they covered) at Georgetown pre-Christmas. They are 3-1 ATS overall as underdogs of 10 or more, the only non-cover coming at a Nevada team that's spent much of the year in the top 15.

The Trojans last five losses have come by a total of 20 points, none coming by more than seven. So they've played better than the record shows. They certainly aren't a great defensive team, which seems problematic when facing an opponent that averages over 80 PPG. However, one interesting thing about Georgia Southern is that they do NOT shoot well from three-point range at home. They are just 28.4%. UALR actually is the better three-point shooting team here and shoots a solid 48.5% overall from the field.  8* Arkansas Little Rock

8* Indiana (8:35 ET): The Pacers have persevered nicely w/o leading scorer Victor Oladipo (who is out for the rest of the season), even though they did just lose in Detroit Monday night. Said perseverance can mostly be attributed to a defense that ranks #1 in the league in efficiency. Now they have allowed an average of 112 PPG since the All-Star Break, but I look for that number to come down after tonight's tussle w/ Dallas, who is among the lowest scoring teams in the NBA. The Mavs, who are 0-5 SU and ATS their last five games, average just 108.7 PPG. 

This is a rematch from a game last month in Indiana where the Pacers won big, 111-99 as 7.5-point chalk. That was actually right before the Oladipo injury occurred. After losing their first four games w/o Oladipo, the Pacers have gone 8-2 SU the L10 games. The last time they were off a loss, they came back to defeat New Orleans by 15 points the next time out. Against the Pistons, Indiana fell into an early hole (trailed by 16 after 1Q) that they ultimately could not climb out of. But they showed me something by battling back to make it a 113-109 final. 

It's not been a good stretch for Dallas, who last won on February 10th. Since then, it's been five straight losses, all by nine points or more. Now the Mavs are 20-10 SU at home, so I understand why the oddsmakers are respecting them here. Rookie Luka Doncic also missed the first two games after the All-Star Break. But even w/ Doncic back in the lineup and producing a triple double, the Mavs had no answer for the Clippers on Monday. 8* Indiana

10* Memphis (8:05 ET): This number appears far too short, especially given what the Grizzlies just did to the Lakers. I had 'em as they pulled the outright upset Monday, here at home, leading most of the way. Throw in the fact that this is a revenge spot for the Grizz and I'm actually quite confuse as to how we're able to fade the Bulls at such a cheap price here. I shouldn't have to tell you that Chicago is one of the worst teams in the league. They'd actually won three in a row before losing to Milwaukee Monday, so maybe that's why the spread is so short. Whatever the reason, lay the points. 

It was exactly two weeks ago that Chicago beat Memphis in the Windy City, 122-110. They were -1.5 at the betting window. It was both teams' final game before the All-Star Break. The Bulls got a number of atypical contributions in that win, including a career-high 37 points from the recently acquired Otto Porter Jr (who was 16 of 20 shooting!) and a season-high 25 from Robin Lopez. That win snapped what was an 11-game home losing streak for the Bulls, so a case can be made that they were clearly the more motivated team that time out. That certainly won't be the case tonight. 

What's most perplexing about Chicago's offensive effort two weeks ago is that it came against the Western Conference's best scoring defense. The Grizzlies are only giving up 104.1 PPG for the year. Again, a case can be made that w/ that previous meeting coming right before the Break, Memphis may not have been fully motivated. Note that at home, the Grizz allow only 101.5 PPG. Chicago is dead last in the league in offensive efficiency and may not have Porter this time around (leg injury) or PG Kris Dunn (migraine), both of whom sat out the loss to the Bucks. 10* Memphis

8* Drake (8:00 ET): Heading into Wednesday, Drake finds itself in a three-way tie atop the Missouri Valley Conference standings (along w/ Loyola Chi and Missouri State). This is pretty impressive considering the Bulldogs lost their leading scorer (Nick Norton) almost two months ago to an ACL injury. The team is coming off a loss, 67-60 at Illinois State over the weekend, but what's impressed me most about Drake is that they haven't dropped B2B games since early January, which is when the Norton injury took place. They've won 9 of their last 12 overall and I'm laying the points tonight. 

Indiana State suffered a similar loss to Drake over the weekend, losing by almost the same score to Missouri State (67-61). Larry Bird's alma mater was able to (just barely) cover the pointspread, however, as they were 6.5-point dogs. But the Sycamores have mostly struggled in MVC play this season, going just 6-10 SU. They've yet to post B2B victories and two of their six wins have been overtime games. They already lost at home to Drake, 68-62, last month as a one-point favorite. In that game, ISU shot just 3 of 22 from three-point range.

Drake has been incredibly effective against the pointspread this season, covering 19 of their 26 lined games. They are 9-2 ATS when favored. They're also 12-2 SU and 9-2 ATS at home. Scoring jumps up to 79.7 PPG here in Des Moines, which is bad news for an Indiana State team that is allowing 77.3 PPG on the road, a big jump from how many they give up in Terre Haute. When seeking revenge for a home loss this season, the Sycamores have lost all five times. Meanwhile, there have only been two times previous to Sunday where Drake was held to 60 pts or less. They came back to win AND cover the next time after both occasions. 8* Drake

8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): I've said it before, but Minnesota is not a good road team (just 9-21 SU overall). Now the last time I said this, they did go out and take care of business against the (hapless) Knicks, winning 115-104 as four-point favorites. They've continued to cover ever since as Monday's 112-105 (home) win over Sacramento marked the T'wolves' sixth straight win against the spread. They test that perfect 6-0 ATS run tonight in Atlanta, where again they'll be a road favorite. I remain steadfast in my belief that this team is a shaky road favorite. Take the points. 

Atlanta already beat Minnesota earlier in the year, doing so as 10-point road dogs back in December. It was an overtime game, but it should be pointed out that the Hawks led by as many as 22 in regulation. Given that they've already won in Minnesota, beating the T'wolves at home isn't asking for that much. The Hawks did snap James Harden's 32-game streak of scoring 30+ points on Monday, but still lost at Houston by a score of 119-111. They did cover as 12.5-pt dogs. Atlanta has now covered in three straight and four of its last five. They've scored at least 111 pts in all four ATS wins, making them attractive here in the customary underdog role. 

This will be Minnesota's fourth game in six night and third on the road. That's a tough spot, especially for a team that usually struggles on the road. In their last road game, the T'wolves surrendered 140 points. Now that was in Milwaukee, but still, the bad defense becomes almost a greater concern when laying points. Despite a 10-18 SU record, Atlanta has actually outscored its opponents at home this year. They've covered each of the last two times as a home dog, including an outright win over the Lakers. 8* Atlanta

10* Georgetown (7:00 ET): Neither of these teams have been playing particularly well of late and in the case of both, it's basically a "waiting game" until the Big East Tournament next month. Georgetown lost at Creighton on Saturday, by 13 points, in a game where they didn't play much defense. It was the Hoyas' third loss in the last four games, though the one win was a big one, here at home against Villanova. DePaul has lost three in a row, all by double digits, their latest also coming against Creighton. The Blue Demons didn't play over the weekend, but that time off won't be nearly enough for them to compete here. Lay the points. 

We should probably expect plenty of points in this game. Both teams just let Creighton shoot better than 50%. In the case of DePaul, they've allowed three straight opponents to shoot better than 52% from the floor. Neither they nor G'town is exactly stout defensively. The Blue Demons are allowing 78.8 PPG on the road while the Hoyas allow 77.9 PPG overall. But the difference is G'town has proven it can score, especially here at home where they average 85.4 PPG. Remember, in their last home game, the Hoyas beat Villanova and scored 85 pts in the process.

The 79 pts DePaul allowed to Creighton was actually "nothing" compared to what they allowed in losses to Marquette and Butler that saw them give up 90+ in both games. So I believe G'town can "name" its point total tonight. This will be the first of two regular season meetings between these squads; the road team won both times LY. Given DePaul is just 3-6 SU on the road this season, I don't see a road win in the cards for them. The two times G'town has been a home favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range this season, they've covered. 10* Georgetown

8* Texas A&M (9:00 ET): LSU played TWO overtime games last week and ended up splitting the pair. I faded them last Wednesday when they lost outright here in Baton Rouge to Florida. But give the Tigers their due for then bouncing back and delivering a huge win over Tennessee Saturday, also here in the Bayou. LSU has now gone to OT a somewhat ridiculous five times here in SEC play, winning four of those games. That's pretty fortunate and despite them knocking off the Vols, I still say they're overrated as a top 15 team, which is where they are in the latest polls.

Texas A&M has found success in the underdog role lately, knocking off both Alabama and Arkansas in the last seven days. The Aggies were getting points in both games and have now won four of their last five overall. LSU is obviously a tougher opponent than either Bama or Arkansas, but it's not as if the Aggies aren't up to the challenge. This is a team that beat Kansas State earlier in the year. They did lose (by 15) at home to the Tigers last month, making this a revenge spot. That game saw the Aggies fall apart late as they were only trailing by one at halftime. They were also coming off the upset win over Kansas State just four days prior. 

LSU also got a season-best 36 points (including six threes) from Tremont Waters in that first meeting. Waters may not play in tonight's rematch due to the same illness that kept him out of the Tennessee game. The fact that Tigers still won despite not having their leading scorer (and rebounder) is a little stunning to me. Something worth noting here is that this will likely end up being the most points LSU has laid in any SEC game this season. I know they've beaten both Tennessee and Kentucky, but they also lost outright here at home to Arkansas as 10-point chalk. I'm taking the points in what should be a clear letdown spot for the favorite. 8* Texas A&M 

10* Boston (8:05 ET): This is a huge game for the Celtics. They've lost both games since the All-Star Break and are in fifth place in the Eastern Conference. Thus, a win at Toronto would not only allow for them to make up some desperately needed ground, it would also demonstrate that all the "disappointment" and "frustration" that's been bandied about this season is nothing more than useless noise. The Celtics have beaten the Raptors twice already this season (lost to them once) and this is a statement game for them in my eyes. Take the points. 

Of Boston's two losses since the Break, one was definitely excusable while the other was not. It shouldn't be too hard to determine which is which. The first one came by just one point in Milwaukee, a game where I had the Under and that bet cashed by 30 points. The second was to Chicago as 10-point road favorites as they gave up 126 pts to arguably the worst offensive team in the league. I think it's worth noting that other than Milwaukee, Boston is the only team in the league to rank in the top six in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They also have the league's third best point differential (better than Toronto's). 

The Raptors also come off an embarrassing loss, theirs coming right here at home at the hands of 6.5-point underdog Orlando (Kawhi Leonard did not play). That was just the sixth home loss of the year for Toronto, but they are sliding at the pay window w/ an 0-4-1 ATS record the L5 games overall. I do believe that Boston is the better team here, no matter what the records may say. The Celtics are also a perfect 6-0 ATS this season in road games where the total is 220 pts or higher. We have seen them perform well w/ their "backs against the wall" several times this season. It also should be pointed out that two of their last four losses have been by one point. 10* Boston

9* Columbus (7:05 ET): While the top three in Atlantic (Tampa Bay-Toronto-Boston) appear pretty much set, the playoff picture over in the Metro is a lot murkier. Five teams are separated by just seven points and three are within one point of each other w/ the possibility of one of the three getting left out of the playoffs due to Montreal's viability for the Wild Card over in the Atlantic. Two of the three teams fighting to get in the top three in the Metro meet tonight in Columbus. This is a very big game w/ Pittsburgh coming to town and I'm siding w/ the home team due to both recent form and the revenge factor.

The Blue Jackets do currently hold the third place position in the Metro, but both the Penguins and Hurricanes are just a point behind. The Jackets' last two games have gone extraordinarily well as they shut out both Ottawa and San Jose, winning by a combined 7-0 margin. This was a busy team at the trade deadline and it's feeling pretty good about itself. They do have some poor history vs. the Penguins to overcome here, however. They've lost 11 of the last 14 meetings w/ the Pens, including five straight losses. Only one of those games was played this season, however, and it was in Pittsburgh. With this being the first of three head to head meetings in the next 12 days, it's imperative that Columbus strikes first. 

Pittsburgh was also a busy team at the trade deadline, but their moves were almost out of necessity as they are quite thin along the blue line. It's shown the last two games, both of which have been losses. First they were shutout (at home) by the same San Jose team that the Blue Jackets just shutout. Then they blew a two-goal lead late in the third period Saturday and lost in overtime to Philly, outdoors. The real key here may be the recent form of Blue Jackets' goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, who has a .958 save percentage his L4 starts, which includes the two aforementioned shutouts. 9* Columbus 

8* Ball State (7:00 ET): Unlike the other MAC play in this report, we are NOT taking the team playing w/ legit revenge for a loss earlier in the season. But in both cases, the home team comes in undervalued. Here, Ball State has already beaten Toledo, doing so 79-64 back in early January. The reason for the Cardinals coming in undervalued for the rematch is because they've dropped two straight close decisions, both as favorites, over the last week. I don't see them losing a third in a row, so grab them at this price at home where they are better than the record shows. 

Toledo had lost B2B games itself before beating Northern Illinois, 57-54, over the weekend. They did not cover the spread though (-10), so that makes it three straight ATS losses. They have not fared well vs. Ball State the L3 seasons, dropping all five games and going just 1-4 ATS. Last month, the Rockets shot just 36.2% at home and despite being a pretty strong defensive team, I'd worry about them travelling as Saturday marked a season low in points scored and they're just 3-2 SU the L5 games despite opponents shooting just 38.7% from the field. 

Ball State is also no slouch defensively as they've held visitors to a field goal percentage of just 38.9% for the season. They also come in averaging 80.2 PPG here in Muncie. Thus, I was pretty shocked to see that the Cardinals home record is only 7-5 SU this season. They are 32-12 SU their L44 games here and that includes a 28-point win over Toledo last season. Coming off a bad offensive showing vs. Central Michigan over the weekend, I expect them to bounce back tonight. The 23 pts scored in the 2H vs. CMU was a season-low and caused them to blow all of a double digit halftime lead. So that was a bit of a misleading final as was Toledo's win that same day considering the Rockets overcame an 11-point 2H deficit to win the game. 8* Ball State

8* Eastern Michigan (7:00 ET): Ok, here we are taking the team playing w/ revenge as Eastern Michigan looks like a bit of a bargain laying a short number at home. I've taken my fair share of shots at the Eagles this year, most of them being successful ones, but I like them here. They did lose up in Mt. Pleasant about a month ago (despite shooting nearly 60% from the floor!), which snapped a six-game win streak over Central Michigan. The Chippewas have been shockingly good ATS in conference play this season, going 11-2-1 overall, including 8-0-1 the last nine game. But that streak ends here. 

On Saturday, Eastern Michigan was able to just barely get by rival Western Michigan, 77-76 here in Ypsilanti. They needed overtime to get the job done, but largely dominated the extra session, taking an eight point lead w/ just over one minute remaining. Western Michigan was able to make it interesting at the end, but was never really in position to win. (They hit a meaningless three-pointer as time expired). The Eagles have now won four of five and despite some woeful shooting from three-point range and the FT line, they still average 74.3 PPG at home.

Given how well Central Michigan defends the three-point line, I wouldn't be surprised if the Eagles have another rough night from distance here. But I think the Chippewas' reputation (7-2 ATS as a dog) may have caught up w/ them here. They did rally back from a double digit deficit at halftime to beat Ball State on the road Saturday. But winning B2B games on the road seems highly unlikely. Before Saturday's win, they'd lost four in a row away from home. Given that they'd gone 4-0 ATS in those losses, they were due to win one and they did just that in Muncie Saturday. But I just don't see lightning striking twice w/ this team as they are giving up 77.4 PPG in conference play. Eastern Michigan shot well over 60% from two-point range in the 1st meeting. 8* Eastern Michigan

8* Colorado (9:05 ET): What a turnaround we've seen recently by the Avalanche. After an absolutely horrible two-month stretch which saw the team lose 19 out of 23 games, the Avs have now won four in a row, two by shutout. That has them fifth in the Central and back in position for the final Wild Card spot. A win tonight would tie them w/ Dallas for fourth in the division. At home, against a poor Florida club, I think the Avs get the two points. The Panthers are in off an easy 6-1 win over a bad Kings team, thus they could be coming in a bit overconfident. 

The Avalanche are of course led by their incredible top line of Landeskog-Rantanen-MacKinnon. It's as good a line as you'll find anywhere in this league, but depth is a concern in Denver and that's what cost them. That said, the Avs have managed to score 17 goals in the last three games alone, which is enough to beat anybody. Especially considering the way goaltender Semyon Varlamov has played recently. Varlamov was NOT between the pipes for the team's 5-0 blanking of Nashville Saturday night, but he does own a ridiculous .958 save percentage his L4 starts. Varlamov has been just as big a reason for the turnaround as has the top line.

Florida has played better of late, not only dominating the Kings on Saturday, but also winning four of their last five. They too have had the "scoring touch," averaging 4.2 goals in those five games. But note all five of those games took place on home ice. This will be just the second time the Panthers have played a road game in the month of February. Goaltending also remains a concern as they rank 27th in the league in goals allowed. Back in December, they lost to Colorado by a score of 5-2. A similar result is likely in store for them tonight. 8* Colorado

8* Memphis (8:05 ET): Before the season even started, I thought expectations were too high for the Lakers and it didn't take long for that mindset to come to fruition. LeBron James did miss all that time due to injury, but the fact is that the King is now back and the team remains a game below .500. They've lost three of four, all w/ James in the lineup, the most recent setback being an outright loss at New Orleans (who didn't even play Anthony Davis) as 6.5-point chalk. Again they are laying points on the road Monday and again I think they'll struggle to win, let alone cover.

Memphis is having another tough season in its own right. They are off an embarrassing loss to Cleveland on Saturday, a game where they actually checked in as a slight underdog. It was their fourth loss in a row overall, but they were at least competitive against good teams in the two at home. One home loss was to San Antonio by a single point and the other was by six to the Clippers. Truthfully, the Grizzlies have been more competitive than you think. Six of their last nine losses have been by six points or less. That's owed to the fact they have the league's 2nd best scoring defense (104.0 PPG), which can really keep them in any game, even if 1st rd DC Jaren Jackson Jr doesn't play again here. 

The Lakers are pretty bad on the road. Their SU record is 12-18 and they give up over 116 PPG. Not surprisingly then, they are a poor 5-10 ATS this season as a road favorite. They are just 14-21-2 ATS as a favorite of any kind and they've failed to cover 19 of 27 times when facing an opponent that has a losing record. For a team that's only in 10th place in the West, this is far too many points to lay in this spot. My own power ratings actually have this game as a near pick 'em. Take the points. 8* Memphis 

8* Phoenix (7:35 ET): The Suns' losing streak has now hit 17 games, a low point historically for the franchise. But at least they were competitive Saturday in Atlanta where they lost by just eight after falling apart late. Phoenix doesn't have second-leading scorer TJ Warren for the foreseeable future and will be playing a Heat team they are just 1-16 SU against since 2009, including eight straight losses here in Miami. Yet despite all that, I still give the Suns a legit shot at pulling an outright upset here. Miami is both short-handed and not very good at home. Take the points. 

Miami won the season's first meeting, 115-98 in Phoenix. They were 8.5-point favorites for that contest, so you might be "batting an eyelash" at the fact they're laying a similar number at home. But as I just alluded to, the Heat are not a great home team, or even a good one. They are one of just four teams in the league to have fewer wins at home than on the road. The difference of four wins is actually the largest in the league. Not only does scoring drop at home, the Heat also allow more PPG here. They have not won a home game since 1/12, losing five in a row at American Airlines Arena. The most recent one was Saturday when they lost by 23 to the Pistons.

Goran Dragic is back for the Heat, who are trying to make the playoffs. They also will have Hassan Whiteside in the lineup tonight, which wasn't the case when they played Phoenix the first time. But they likely won't have James Johnson, Justise Winslow and Rodney McGruder, three key rotation players, tonight. Like I mentioned above, the Suns did fight hard in Atlanta Saturday night, even having the lead going into the fourth quarter. My view here is that Miami likely wins, but it'll be a close game throughout. The Heat's most recent game doesn't exactly inspire confidence in them laying this many points and they are already 5-9 ATS when coming off a DD loss. 8* Phoenix

10* Over Blazers/Cavs (7:05 ET): Somebody break up the Cavs! They've won two straight, just the the third time they've pulled that off all season. They've actually won three of their last four games. But there's yet to be a single three-game win streak in Cleveland since LeBron James left town. Following the previous two win streaks, the Cavs would go onto suffer a home loss both times. I do expect them to lose tonight, but I feel even stronger about this being a high-scoring affair due the Cavs' poor defense and the fact they are now stronger offensively w/ Kevin Love back in the lineup. Take the Over.

Portland is off a very impressive win in Philadelphia. They scored 130 points on a Sixers team that is pretty respectable on the defensive end. Cleveland is anything but respectable defensively as they come into this game ranked dead last in efficiency. The gap between them and the 29th team in DE is actually larger than the difference between 24 and 29! So I'd expect the Blazers to score plenty again here. They torched Cleveland for 129 pts in the first meeting, which was last month at home. They've also averaged 116.8 PPG their last five games.

Cleveland has scored 111 and 112 in the two games since the All-Star Break. Love led the way w/ a season-best 32 points Saturday vs. Memphis, despite sitting out the final 5:23. Among all the Western Conference playoff contenders, Portland is NOT exactly one of the premier defensive teams. They give up 112.9 PPG on the road. So the Cavs should score plenty tonight as well. Them scoring 112 against a Memphis team that is #1 in the league in points allowed was pretty impressive. Portland has gone Over in five out of its last six games vs. teams with losing records. 10* Over Blazers/Cavs

10* Over Notre Dame/Florida State (7:00 ET): Both of these teams come off rather abysmal shooting performances on Saturday. Notre Dame shot 32.8% in an eight-point home loss to Virginia Tech. FSU was even worse, finishing at 30.5% from the floor in an 18-point loss to North Carolina. Both teams ended up scoring just 59 points. We should see each score a lot more Monday night on ESPN. The Seminoles are back in Tallahassee (where their scoring average exceeds 80 PPG). Both teams are facing weaker defensive teams that what they faced over the weekend. Take the Over here. 

I don't think we're used to seeing Notre Dame shoot the ball so poorly. The Fighting Irish are shooting below 40% for the season, just 37.2% in ACC play and an even worse 35.2% the L5 games. So why should we expect any better shooting tonight? Well, this game going Over may not be necessarily as predicated on the Irish shooting better as it is on the tempo being faster. The Irish just played a Va Tech team that plays at one of the slowest tempos in the entire country. Florida State plays at the 4th fastest tempo in the ACC. Notre Dame does average 70.3 PPG and I don't see them having much trouble hitting that average tonight against an opponent that will be willing to go up and down the court. 

I mentioned earlier that FSU is a pretty good offensive team at home. They're actually pretty good anywhere. They average 76.5 PPG overall, but as mentioned above that number jumps to 80.6 PPG at home. Saturday was arguably their worst offensive game of the season. The 59 points did match a season-low. The previous time the Seminoles were held to 59 pts, they came back and scored 80 their next time out. The Over is 28-13 in the Noles' last 41 home games, including 15-2 when they're favored by 12.5 or more points. The Over is 5-0 this season when they're -12.5 or higher here in Tallahassee. 10* Over Notre Dame/Florida State 

10* Arizona (8:00 ET): The Wildcats finally snapped their long losing skid (had reached seven in a row) on Thursday by beating lowly Cal, 76-51. Given Cal's status in the Pac 12, such a victory would not be cause for celebration for most teams, but here in Tucson, it was definitely a welcome sight. Not only had Arizona lost seven straight games, they'd failed to cover the number in all of those games as well. They get to stay at home Sunday where they'll host a Stanford team coming off a double digit road loss. Arizona won this season's first meeting w/ the Cardinal and was actually favored in that game. They're available at a great price here tonight. Lay the points. 

Stanford shot 54.0% overall in that first meeting, at home, and still lost. In a 75-70 final, the fact they went 15 of 26 from the FT line was a killer (Arizona was 16 of 18). But also key was the fact the Cardinal made only one three-pointer on eight attempts. (Arizona was 7 of 12). Though the free throw and three-point percentages are likely to go up this evening, the overall percentage will not. Further complicating matters is the fact that leading scorer KZ Okpala may not play tonight. He didn't play against Arizona State and the Cardinal lost by 18. The team shot just 37.5% overall.

Arizona may have had a poor last month, but they are still a strong defensive team, at least here at home. They allow just 61.9 PPG in Tucson while opponents are barely shooting 40%. In conference play, opponents have shot a lot better than that number, but five of the last seven games have been on the road. But perhaps the biggest key of all in breaking down this game is the fact the Wildcats have beaten the Cardinal 18 straight times! The Cardinal last beat Arizona in 2009. Okpala scored a career-high 29 in that first meeting and if he doesn't play here, then I don't see how Stanford can win here. Even if he does play, history says they won't do well. 10* Arizona 

10* Under Clippers/Nuggets (5:05 ET): This total has gotten too high, IMO, as Denver games don't really come close to averaging what the oddsmakers are asking for here. Home games do find the Nuggets averaging more points per game than on the road, but they also give up less. Clippers games, on average, are a bit more high scoring. However, they still fall short on the threshold here. This is the third meeting this year between these two teams. The first went Over, but the second stayed Under and this is - by far - this highest O/U line of the three games. Take the Under.

The Clippers came back from the All-Star Brak and beat Memphis Friday night, 112-106. They did have to rally in the 4Q as they were trailing. Lucky for them, the Grizzlies aren't a very good offensive team. While Denver isn't likely to shoot as poorly here as Memphis did, that's built into the O/U line already. Over bettors have cashed in the Clips' last four games. However, two of those games saw them shoot really well, one in particular (59% vs. Phoenix!). The Over is 17-10-1 in Clippers' home games, but they've gone Under more than they have Over on the road. 

Denver also opened the 2nd half of the season w/ a win, theirs coming in Dallas by a score of 114-104. Again, that final score wouldn't have gone Over this total. It didn't even go Over its own total. The Nuggets were a little rusty in that first game back, shooting only 40.8% from the floor. They were fortunate in that Dallas shot basically an identical percentage. Another area where they were fortuitous was offensive rebounding as they grabbed 21 there alone and 63 boards total. The number of second chance points simply won't be there this time nor will we likely be seeing a 39-point quarter from the Nuggets today either. 10* Under Clippers/Nuggets 

10* Under Stars/Blackhawks (3:05 ET): Chicago has gone Over in 11 straight games and 18 of its last 20. That's quite the streak. I've taken the Over in several of those games, but today they have an opponent that's conducive to things finally going the "other way" (i.e. Under). Dallas is 14-4 Under its last 18 games as they have built a reputation for having some of the lowest scoring games in the league. Unfortunately for the Stars, that includes them getting shutout three times in the last five games. Something's gotta give here and I think this will be more of a "Dallas game" Sunday. Take the Under.

The Stars got shutout again last night, losing 3-0 to Carolina. They managed only 24 shots on goal in that game, so they didn't exactly make it tough on the Hurricanes. That game was also on home ice, a bad sign considering they typically average about a full goal per game more at home than on the road. On the road, they are averaging just 2.0 goals per game. That's the second lowest average in the league. But if there's one "saving grace" here for the Stars it's that they rank third in the league in goals allowed, giving up just 2.6 per game. 

Chicago is also off a loss, though there's was a higher scoring affair. They fell 5-3 to Colorado on Friday, here at home. You've got to tip your cap to the Blackhawks for not "folding their tent" despite spending much of the season in last place in the Central Division. But there's just no way they can maintain their recent scoring average, which is 4.6 goals per over the L5 games. Now I realize that the club also has the highest goals per game allowed average in the league. But Dallas won't test them as much as the majority of their recent opponents. Note the Stars are 7-1 Under this season when playing in the second night of back to back days. 10* Under Stars/Blackhawks

10* Wichita State (8:00 ET): I have to say that for awhile this was not looking like a typical season from Wichita State. The Shockers were 8-11 SU following an embarrassing 20-point loss at UConn on January 26th and going "nowhere fast." But they've turned things around over the last month or so, winning five of the last six games. The lone loss was to Cincinnati. Tonight, they get a national TV game at home and it's a revenge spot vs. Memphis, who they lost to 85-74 back on January 3rd. I'll call for Wichita State's winning ways to continue here and lay the small number. 

Memphis is off what'll be its easiest conference win of the year, a 26-point beatdown of Tulane at home. The Tigers do have a couple of games where the MOV was higher, but that was against the likes of Tennessee State and Florida A&M. It's not as if the Tigers shot the lights out against Tulane, a team that is now 0-13 in conference play. The game was simply played at a fast pace (Memphis is #5 in adjusted tempo nationally). But I don't figure that to be the case here against a Wichita State team that likes to slow things down. Expect Memphis to be "uncomfortable" in this game. 

Wichita State has covered six straight, even the loss to Cincinnati as they were double digit underdogs. They were favored in four of the wins and then pulled a minor upset (were +2) at Tulsa earlier this week, winning 81-60. That was an impressive showing defensively as they held the Golden Hurricane to 30% shooting, including 4 of 22 from three-point range. In the first meeting w/ Memphis, they kept the Tigers in check from behind the arc (28.6%), but still allowed 50% shooting overall. The real key however was Memphis attempting 31 free throws to Wichita State's six. That advantage won't be present tonight for the Tigers, who are 0-10 SU this season as an underdog (2-8 ATS). 10* Wichita State

10* Phoenix (7:05 ET): The fact Atlanta played last night does them no favors here. Plus, they're favored for only fifth time all year. They've failed to cover each of the four times previous to this, losing outright on three occasions. One of those took place right before the All-Star Break, at home, to a Knicks team that had lost 18 in a row. So Phoenix definitely has more than just a "chance" here even though they come in having dropped 16 in a row (franchise record). Given the situation and circumstance, I'll be taking the Suns, who are playing w/ revenge for a six-point loss earlier this month.

Phoenix has not won since January 11th when they beat Denver of all teams. Looking at this historic 16-game slide, 11 of the losses have taken place on the road. The team is just 2-23 SU its last 25 games. But despite all that, this is their best shot at winning since the time they hosted the Hawks. That also happened to be the lone instance where the Suns were favored during this 16-game skid. They were only 1-pt dogs in Cleveland Wednesday, a game where they rallied back from a double digit deficit only to still lose by 13. But given Atlanta is in the second night of a back to back, I like this spot a lot better for the Suns.

Atlanta was able to win 118-112 in Phoenix three weeks ago due to an unusually strong shooting night. They shot 51.2% overall and were 14 of 32 from three-point range. That probably won't happen again tonight. This is the seventh straight home game for the Hawks and they've lost five of the previous six. They gave up 125 pts last night to Detroit despite Blake Griffin being ejected in the third quarter. Playing without rest has not been good to this Hawks team as they are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in that situation. Take the points here. 10* Phoenix

10* Under Bruins/Blues (4:05 ET): These are two of the hottest teams in the league right now, so this sets up as a competitive game. St. Louis did just lose for the first time in 12 games as their franchise record win streak was snapped on Thursday. So, Boston is technically the hotter team here as they come in having won seven straight. Each of the last four wins came out West as they swept the three California teams then won a shootout in Vegas. Given the competitive nature this game is likely to have, I see it staying Under the total w/ very few goals being scored. 

The Blues' season began its dramatic turn when rookie goaltender Jordan Binnington was thrust between the pipes. Granted, Binnington was not at his best Thursday in Dallas as he allowed four goals on just 24 shots. But prior to that, he'd posted a .937 save percentage and 1.61 goals against average in 15 starts all while going 13-1-1. What's really helped Binnington is the St. Louis defense not allowing their opponents to get many shots off. Since interim HC Craig Berube took over behind the bench, the team is allowing an average of just 28 shots per game, which is one of the better marks in the league. Even in defeat Thursday night, they allowed just 24 to the Stars. 

Boston is #2 in the league in goals allowed, so they're a stingy group too. In the seven-game win streak, they've allowed just 17 goals. That's not an awe-inspiring number by any means as it's been the offense doing a lot of the heavy lifting. But here they'll be facing a Blues team that allowed a total of just 16 goals in its historic 11-game win streak, including four shutouts. The Bruins are still w/o winger David Pastranak, keep in mind. When these teams met in Boston last month, the final score was 5-2 (in favor of the home team), but that was a much different Blues club than the one we're getting now. The Under is 14-8-1 in St. Louis' last 23 games. 10* Under Bruins/Blues 

10* Akron (2:00 ET): This is a very important game for the Zips, who have lost three straight close ones. It's also a revenge spot as earlier in the year, they lost at Miami 68-61 as 2.5-pt favorites. That was a game where little went right from Akron's perspective as they shot just 39.3% overall and were 6 of 26 from three-point range. They also attempted only eight free throws. Certainly, at home, we should see a dramatic spike in those numbers Saturday afternoon. This is a team that has lost only twice at home all season, one of those coming to MAC heavyweight Buffalo. The other time was a one-point loss to Marshall early in the season. I'm laying the points here. 

As I said earlier, Akron comes into this game on a three-game losing streak and all three losses were close - as in by six points or less (11 pts total). The last two were on the road and both times the Zips blew a halftime lead and lost in the closing seconds. I played on Akron the last time they won a game, which was 2/8 vs. rival Kent State. In my analysis for that matchup, I noted the Zips are actually one of the nation's best defensive teams. That's still true as they're only allowing 62.7 PPG for the year. That's tied for the 15th best mark in the country and here at James A. Rhodes Arena, they allow only 58.2 PPG, which is a top 10 mark in the country. 

In two of the three recent losses, Akron has allowed far more points than usual. But those games were against Buffalo and Bowling Green, the top two teams in the conference. Miami is not exactly an offensive juggernaut and in fact has shot below 40% from the field over its last five games. Incredibly, Akron has held EVERY MAC foe below its season average in scoring. Miami averages 72.5 PPG overall, but just 68.7 on the road. The Zips don't just have revenge for last month, they've actually lost to the RedHawks four consecutive times. It's payback time on Saturday afternoon. 10* Akron

8* Auburn (1:30 ET): I wrote this when I played them on Wednesday, but Auburn deserves to be ranked in the top 25. Sure enough, they staked their claim Wednesday by destroying Arkansas 79-56. Granted, Arkansas isn't very good and the game was at home. But here, the Tigers can really stake their claim to being a top 25 team as they travel to Lexington to face #4 Kentucky. You may recall that it was exactly one week ago that I took UK against (then) #1 Tennessee and they took down the Vols 86-69. That was followed by a win at Missouri. The Wildcats have lost just once in the L13 games and that was at the buzzer against LSU. But I expect this one to be close. Take the points.

These teams did already play once this year and UK won 82-80 as a 4.5-point road underdog. Auburn trailed by as many as 17 in the 2nd half before staging a massive rally late. I don't see them falling into such a hole this time around. I think it's interesting to see just how far the line has shifted for this second matchup. Auburn has not been an underdog very often. This will be just the third time all season. They did lose both of the previous two games straight up, but covered one (+11 at Duke) and then only lost by five at LSU the other time.

As hot as Kentucky is right now, I think they're prone for a letdown. What they did last Saturday to Tennessee was very impressive, but the Vols were also due for their own letdown. Power forward Reid Travis is going to miss this game w/ a sprained right knee. He averages 11.3 points and 6.9 rebounds per game and his absence will be felt against an opponent like Auburn. The Tigers are a really good three-point shooting team (37.9%), something Arkansas found out the hard way on Wednesday. That'll keep them in this one throughout and I do give the dog a shot at the outright upset here. 8* Auburn

8* Vegas (10:05 ET): Two teams that are reeling face off tonight in Las Vegas w/ the Golden Knights looking to rebound from a shootout loss to the Bruins and the Jets desperate to end a three-game slide. That loss to the Bruins occurred here at home, which was actually the fourth time in five tries that the Golden Knights have tasted defeat at their own rink. We're certainly unaccustomed to seeing that as dating back to last season, the franchise's first in existence, they have established one of the strongest home ice advantages in the entire league. 

Winnipeg may be in more dire straits as they've lost three in a row, including two blowouts at the hands of Colorado. It's not like the Avalanche have been playing well either; before sweeping the home and home w/ the Jets, the Avs had dropped EIGHT in a row! In between the two losses to the Avs, the Jets lost a game to lowly Ottawa, at home. Winnipeg has now dropped six of eight overall and that includes two losses to Ottawa. In their last five losses, the Jets have given up 25 goals. This isn't what I expect from one of the top teams in the Western Conference, but it's also the facts. Another fact is they've never won here in Vegas in three tries. 

This is just the second time this season that Winnipeg has lost three in a row. They won the previous time in this spot, which was at Buffalo 12 days ago. I don't see it happening here though as Vegas is a place they've never won at and the Golden Knights don't lose here very often, period. The Jets have been outscored on the road this season while Vegas only allows 2.5 goals per game at home, which is one of the better averages in the league. Something has to give tonight as either Winnipeg will avoid a season high in losses or Vegas will lose for the 7th time in their last 8 home games. The latter just seems less likely to me. 8* Vegas

8* New York (7:35 ET): I won't sit here and argue that the Knicks don't stink. Because when you have the worst record in the league, obviously you're not a very good team. But, no one deserves to be getting this many points from the T'wolves, at least at home. Minnesota is really bad on the road (8-20 SU), so them being in this price range is simply unwarranted. They are actually a respectable 4-4 ATS as road chalk this season, but all four non-covers were also outright losses. The Knicks did win their last game before the All-Star Break, snapping a team-record 18-game skid. 

The Knicks have not won at MSG since beating Milwaukee (in overtime) back on December 1st! Their last win in regulation at home came prior to Thanksgiving! Since that win over the Bucks on 12/1, New York has gone an unfathomable 3-31 straight up. But they did win their last game (on the road), which was against Atlanta. There are obviously little in the way of positives to report from the first half and a 4-23 SU home record is downright unsightly. But there comes a point where pride does kick in and I just don't see them getting blown out on their home floor tonight. Picking up that "elusive" home win is probably the last bit of motivation the Knicks have right now. 

Minnesota hasn't won a road game since beating the LeBron-less Lakers back on January 24th. Since then, they've lost four straight times away from home. Most of those were close, but it's also worth pointing out that they lost outright the last time they were road chalk, which was to a Memphis team that was also really struggling at the time. The T'wolves are also bad defensively as they give up 114.7 PPG on the road. In a crowded Western Conference, Minnesota likely already knows it's not a real "player," so I'm not expecting much from them in the 2nd half. 8* New York

10* San Antonio (7:05 ET): The Spurs were expected to take a sizable step backwards this season, but as long as Greg Popovich is coaching this team, they're likely to do just fine. I think it's fair to say they surpassed 1st half expectations by winning 33 games and they find themselves tied for 6th in the Western Conference. Defensively, the Spurs may not be as sound as they used to be. But they've made up for that by being one of the most efficient offenses (3rd) in the league, largely on the back of the best three-point shooting percentage in the league (40.9%). I like them as underdogs tonight in Toronto. 

With LeBron James taking his talents to the Western Conference, Toronto came into 2018-19 believing this might be "their year." They have Kawhi Leonard and also just traded for Marc Gasol. As expected, the Raptors are one of the Eastern Conference's best teams as only Milwaukee is ahead of them currently. They went into the All-Star Break on a six-game win streak. However, while emotions might very well be high tonight on ESPN as DeMar DeRozan plays his 1st game in Toronto as a visitor, the first game after the ASB is conducive to coming out "flat" and thus not a good idea to lay this many points against a quality foe. 

DeRozan led the way w/ his 1st career triple double (21-14-11) the first time these teams met, which was a 125-107 San Antonio win. Despite the perception that this is a "down year," DeRozan leads the Spurs in scoring at 21.4 PPG and that's w/ a subpar January. LaMarcus Aldridge also scored 23 points in that first meeting w/ the Raptors. I know San Antonio has struggled on the road this year and they have failed to cover eight straight games overall. But I don't see them getting blown out on national TV Friday night. Take the points. 10* San Antonio

10* Over Harvard/Brown (7:00 ET): These teams first met three weeks ago w/ Harvard winning 68-47 as 6.5-pt favorites. As you may have guessed, such a low-scoring game easily finished Under the total. Brown turned in an awful shooting performance, making only 28.8% from the field, including 5 of 22 from three-point range. Chris Berman's alma mater would be a virtual lock to shoot better regardless for tonight's rematch, but especially so w/ the game taking place at home. The Bears come in averaging 82.1 PPG at home this season, a significant upgrade from what they average on the road (67.7 PPG). Take the Over. 

Harvard is 6-2 SU in Ivy League play, which has them in second place, just one game behind rival Yale. The Crimson come into this game having won seven of their last eight overall, including B2B road wins over Princeton (78-69) and Penn (75-68). Both games went Over the total. This is a pretty strong three-point shooting team as they are hitting 38% for the year from behind the arc and they went 22 of 46 in those last two games. I will point out that the game at Penn went to OT and another recent win (over Columbia) was a triple OT game. So that does inflate the Crimson's offensive numbers some. But I still expect them to score plenty tonight. 

In the first meeting, the teams combined to attempt 42 free throws, but missed 16 of them. But the real key here remains how much Brown's scoring goes up at home. Harvard is also 7-3-1 Over in road games. Look for the Crimson to lean heavily on leading scorer Bryce Aiken, who has scored 126 points in the L4 games. Brown is shooting a dreadful 40% in conference play, but their last home game saw them at 50% overall. They also put up a 40-point second half in a 65-63 win at Columbia last weekend. So both teams are more than capable of a big offensive night here. 10* Over Harvard/Brown

10* CS Fullerton (10:30 ET): The reality of the Big West is that UC Irvine is a lot better than everyone else. Only two other teams in the league (USCB, Hawaii) can claim to have a winning record overall. However, CS Fullerton (12-13 SU) can claim second place in the standings, thanks to an 8-3 SU conference record. The Titans come into Thursday having won eight of their last nine games, the lone loss coming at UC Irvine by a score of 60-53. While they were certainly held in check in that game, the Titans have scored at least 77 points in each of the last seven wins. 

Cal Davis will also come into tonight riding a win streak as they've come out on top each of their L5 games. Three of those have been on the road, though the last two were both at home. Saturday saw them beat Long Beach State 77-73 as they rallied back from an eight-point halftime deficit. It should be pointed out that the entirety of the Aggies' win streak has come at the expense of the bottom half of the Big West. Not that Cal State Fullerton has downed any "world-beaters" either, but as you're about to read, home court advantage is going to play a significant role in this game. 

CS Fullerton has only played nine home games so far. They're 7-2 SU outscoring opponents by 13.2 PPG. Given that they are just 12-13 SU overall, it should be pretty obvious that the Titans are simply a much better team here at home. Their scoring goes up substantially while the number of points allowed also drops noticeably. Cal Davis is just 3-10 SU on the road, averaging only 63.3 PPG. So, yes, coming into February, the Aggies were actually 0-10 SU on the road. This three-game win streak is pretty shocking then and unlikely to last. They are just 1-10 SU as a road underdog, getting outscored by double digits in those games. 10* CS Fullerton

8* Under Blues/Stars (8:35 ET): The hottest in the team in the league right now resides in St. Louis as the Blues have won a franchise record 11 straight and generally speaking, they have been dominant in doing so, outscoring the opposition 43-16. Incredibly, they were close to pulling off a fourth straight shutout Tuesday vs. Toronto before giving up two third period goals. They still won obviously, in overtime. I wouldn't bet against this Blues team right now, but Dallas can be stingy, despite what we've seen from them recently. I'm on the Under here. 

The Stars had actually been shutout themselves in two straight games going into Tuesday. But three goals were NOT enough to overcome Nashville here at home. It was just the fifth time this season that Dallas lost a game in which it scored three or more times (21-4-1). But despite recent form, Dallas still ranks third in the league in goals allowed (2.61 per game). Their problem is clearly on offense where they rank 29th at 2.51 goals per game. Thus, they have generally been a "boon" for Under bettors w/ a 35-17-5 mark in all games. The Nashville game marked just the second Over for them in the last 18 games! 

St. Louis has gone Under in each of its last four games and the Under is 19-8-2 on the road for them. Obviously, it's been quite difficult to score on this team. Before the third period vs. Toronto Tuesday night, they'd gone 11 straight periods w/o giving up a goal. Much of that is owed to the remarkable play of rookie netminder Jordan Binnington, who is now 13-1-1 in all starts w/ a 1.61 GAA and .937 save percentage. Looking at the Stars' season as a whole coupled w/ the Blues recent play, I think it's quite reasonable to expect tonight to be a low-scoring affair. 8* Under Blues/Stars

10* Under Celtics/Bucks (8:05 ET): I can see this being the matchup for the Eastern Conference Finals, but we have a long way to go until then. Milwaukee is certainly in good position coming out of the Break as they lead the Conference w/ a 43-14 SU record along w/ the NBA's best point differential (+9.8). Boston has been hit hard by both injuries and internal strife, thus they are "lagging" behind some in 4th place (37-21 SU), though they can claim the East's 2nd best point differential at +6.4. Coming out of the Break, I expect both sides to be a bit rusty, thus I'll go w/ the Under here. 

Milwaukee is known as an "offensive team," but they actually sport the league's best defensive efficiency rating. (Boston isn't too far behind at #4). The Bucks ended the 1st half w/ three straight Unders and only one opponent has topped 107 pts in their last six games. This will be just the third time this season that the Bucks are playing w/ three or more days rest. The Under is 2-0 the previous two times and they've also gone Under the last four times when playing teams with a winning record. Given the competitive nature of the two teams involved here, this seems like a really high total. 

Boston and Milwaukee have met two times this year and both games did go Over. However, those were lower totals. Both games took place in Boston and each team won once. It should be noted that the Celtics' scoring does drop slightly, down to 109.9 PPG, on the road. Now Milwaukee obviously averages more PPG at home, but neither team's average PPG scored + allowed adds up to what the total is for tonight. Again, with this being the 1st game back from the Break, I don't see either side being in "peak" form offensively. 10* Under Celtics/Bucks

8* Under Kings/Predators (8:05 ET): Two teams at the opposite end of the Western Conference spectrum face off tonight in Music City. The Predators have a golden opportunity here to pass the Jets (who lost last night) and climb back into first place in the Central Division. The Preds have hardly played well of late (2-3-1 L6 games), but a 5-3 win at Dallas on Tuesday was definitely a step in the right direction. Tonight should be an easy two points, but the money line really doesn't allow for a play on the side. The Under is a better call anyway as this should be a low-scoring game. 

The Kings are not a good team. They've been residing at the bottom of the Pacific Division most of the year and their 52 points are a Western Conference low. They've been outscored by 39 goals, which is the second worst differential in the entire league. They are particularly weak on the goal scoring side of the ledger where they rank 30th (next to last) at just 2.39 per game. Strangely though, it's not been goal scoring that has hurt the team during the current five-game losing streak. They've actually scored 15 goals during that time. But they've also given up 22.

I don't see the Kings scoring three times tonight as Nashville is a top four team in goals allowed and #2 when factoring in only home games. Furthermore, the Kings' scoring average drops slightly on the road. The only prior meeting this season was played here in Nashville and saw the Preds win 5-3. But that was three months ago. Before busting loose for five goals in Dallas Tuesday, the Preds had totaled just six goals in their previous three games combined. 8* Under Kings/Predators

8* Louisiana (8:00 ET): UT Arlington's bid to win the Sun Belt hit a major "snag" last week as they lost twice, both times on the road. First, it was to Arkansas Little Rock by a score of 56-52. Leading scorer Edric Dennis scored only six points in that game (on 2 of 15 shooting), thus the Mavericks could not take advantage of the fact their opponents scored a season-low 30 pts in the 2nd half. On Saturday, it was a 4-point loss at Arkansas State (83-79). Dennis again struggled (only 8 pts), but it was more the Mavericks' defense betraying them than anything else.

Louisiana is coming off B2B wins. The latest was on Saturday, 83-76 over rival LA Monroe. The Rajin Cajuns had a nice long layoff going into that rivalry game (where they were also playing w/ revenge) as they had not played since the previous Friday when they beat Georgia State 76-72 as two-point underdogs. That, like the LA Monroe game, was at home. Against Georgia State, Louisiana had a double-digit lead at halftime and was able to hold on for the win.

It would be easy to simply look at where Louisiana's last two wins took place (at home!) and where UT Arlington's two losses took place (on the road!) and decide tonight will be different based on the changes in venue. But note that even though the Mavericks are still tied for third in the conference, they have a losing SU record overall (12-14) and have been beaten four times this year at home. Regardless of whether they are playing at home or on the road, Louisiana can score as they come in averaging 83.0 PPG, which is top 20 in the country. A high scoring underdog that's in better form than its opponent sounds like a "good deal" to me. 8* Louisiana

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): This is a really big game for the Maple Leafs, who have fallen into third place in the Atlantic. Look for it to be a battle w/ Boston the rest of the way for 2nd place, which is of course key considering whomever finishes 2nd will have home ice advantage in the 1st round of the playoffs. The task ahead of the Leafs was made a little tougher last night when Boston won in Vegas. They now trail the red-hot Bruins (who are 9-0-1 L10 games) by four points. That makes tonight a virtual "must win." Coming off B2B losses, I think they get the job done. 

Over in the Metro, Washington finds itself also jockeying for playoff positioning. Unlike Toronto, finishing first in the division is still in play for the Caps. They enter the day three points behind the first place Islanders, but this is a somewhat challenging spot from a scheduling perspective. The team is playing its fifth straight road game and the last three all came out on the West Coast. Granted, they've had two days off, but that scenario finds them at only 4-4 SU for the year. Toronto just wrapped up its own long road trip (six games) and will be quite happy to be back on home ice.

This is the third meeting of the season between the two clubs. Toronto has taken the first two, rather convincingly, 4-2 and 6-3. While both teams are in the top 10 in scoring, the Maple Leafs look to have a substantial edge defensively. Washington is in the bottom third in goals allowed (22nd ) while Toronto is a solid 9th. Not many teams in this league rank in the top 10 in both goals scored and allowed. There was no shame in their last loss as it came against the hottest team in the league (St. Louis) and they still earned a point. The Capitals have posted B2B wins only one time over the last month and that came in a pair of home games, both of which were against lesser opponents. 8* Toronto

10* Vegas (10:05 ET): The Golden Knights' extraordinary home ice advantage will be tested this evening by a Bruins team that's riding a six-game win streak. While not quite as strong as they were here last year, Vegas is still 17-9-3 SU here in Sin City and this looks like a bad spot for Boston considering it will be their fourth straight road game in a six-day span. The Bruins admittedly did just win at San Jose, another team that rarely loses at home. But they needed OT after blowing a 3-0 lead in that game, which also saw them get outshot 38-20. The "Vegas Flu" claims another victim tonight!

With the six-game win streak, Boston has now passed Toronto for second place in the Atlantic, which is important because it means they would host the Maple Leafs (or whomever else finishes 3rd in the division) in the 1st round of the playoffs. Personally, I believe Toronto is the better team, but let's table that discussion for another time. What we do know about the Bruins is that they were just 11-10-5 SU on the road prior to the start of this trip. They average just 2.5 goals per game outside of Beantown and Vegas remains one of the stingier teams in the league at home, giving up only 2.4 gpg. That's 3rd fewest in the league. (Boston ranks 28th in scoring on the road). 

The home team is 3-0 all-time when these teams meet. Boston won 4-1 back in November at a time when the Golden Knights were struggling. It's not like they're playing a whole lot better now (lost 4 of 5), but after being shutout in their last game (3-0 at Colorado), I expect a strong bounce back tonight. After scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game, Vegas is 9-2 SU the next time out. They did have 40 shots on goal vs. the Avs Monday, but just couldn't get any past Semyon Varlamov. Boston is pretty strong between the pipes in its own right, but I see them being under siege here by a Vegas team that is averaging 37.8 shots on goal its L5 games. 10* Vegas 

8* Butler (9:00 ET): Marquette is a team I've been "chasing" for much of this season. Quite frankly, I believe the Golden Eagles to be one of the more overrated teams in the country, at least in terms of ranking. Not that they don't deserve to be in the top 25 at this point, because they do. But #11 seems a little high to me. This is a team that has benefited from going an extremely fortunate 7-1 SU in games decided by five points or less. Their most recent "close" victory came two Saturday ago against Villanova, 70-69. That was followed by a much more convincing win @ DePaul. 

So Marquette rolls into Wednesday having won 10 of 11 w/ the only loss coming by a single point to St. John's. They've been off for over a week and host a Butler team they already beat by 18 points - on the road - last month. Predictably, the line has shifted quite a bit for this rematch. But has it shifted TOO much? Marquette was actually an underdog when it won at Hinkle Fieldhouse. They may be playing tonight's game w/o the services of Sam Hauser, their second-leading scorer (15.3 PPG) and only one of two double digit scorers on the roster. Hauser is currently listed as questionable due to an eye injury suffered in the DePaul game. He is also the team's leading rebounder. 

Butler has lost 10 straight games to Top 25 opponents. To win here, they're probably going to need to hold Marquette under 74 points. The Golden Eagles are a perfect 17-0 SU when hitting that benchmark this season, but just 4-4 SU when falling short. Butler is a team capable of having a big night from three-point range as there have been 11 games this season where they've made 10 or more shot from behind the arc. They are 9-2 SU in those 11 games. Something else to keep in mind here is that the Bulldogs' only loss in the last four games was in OT (at St. John's). They scored 91 pts against DePaul on Saturday and I like this revenge-minded dog. 8* Butler 

10* Auburn (8:30 ET): I understand why Auburn isn't currently ranked in the Top 25, but I've got them in them rated among the top 15 teams in America in my own personal power rankings and most objective rating systems (Vegas, BPI, KenPom) seem to agree. The Tigers did recently lose B2B games, to LSU and Ole Miss, but bounced back over the weekend w/ a 64-53 win at Vandy. Tonight, they return home to face an Arkansas squad that's on a three-game losing streak. The Razorbacks have pulled some upsets this year, most notably over LSU, but not tonight. Lay the points. 

Auburn is 12-2 SU at home this season, generally blowing their visitors out. They've outscored the opposition by 23.6 PPG here. This is a strong offensive team, one that averages 86.3 PPG at home. They also play good defense, allowing just 62.7 PPG here. Arkansas can score too, but the big difference is the Hogs can't stop anybody, especially on the road where they are allowing 78.7 PPG. Look for that to be a major problem for them tonight. The Razorbacks have given up 77 or more points four times in the last five games. Auburn has held five of its last six opponents to 63 pts or less.

Arkansas' most recent loss was by 10, at home, to Mississippi State over the weekend. That came on the heels of two road losses to teams that were really struggling, South Carolina and Missouri. The Razorbacks did actually lead Miss St by six at halftime, but fell victim to a 23-1 run. That game is instructive b/c I have Auburn rated higher than Miss State (as would most). Right now, the Tigers would safely be in the NCAA Tournament, but a loss to a team like Arkansas could be potentially devastating. Look for them to show how "good they are" Wednesday night. 10* Auburn

8* Florida (7:00 ET): LSU is 21-4 (SU) on the season and has climbed to #13 in the latest AP Poll (#15 in Coaches). The Tigers are a team I feel has been pretty lucky this year and that's pretty much confirmed by the fact they have gone 8-3 SU in games decided by six points or less this season. Three of their conference wins have required overtime and the last four have come by a total of 15 points (all by 4 pts or less). After beating Kentucky on a last second tip in last Tuesday, the Tigers were able to hold on against Georgia over the weekend, winning 83-79 as 7.5-point chalk. That win improved them to a perfect 7-0 SU on the SEC road. 

Tonight, LSU returns to the Bayou to host Florida. The Gators have not enjoyed the same kind of luck as have the Tigers, especially at the betting window. They'd failed to cover seven in a row heading into the weekend, but then came a positive sign as they went to Tuscaloosa and upset Alabama 71-53 as 3.5-point dogs. That was one of the Gators' better efforts in recent memory as they held the Crimson Tide w/o a made basket for the first eight minutes en route to their largest MOV on the road this season. Something worth noting is that Florida has won its last two games (also beat Vandy, but did not cover) even w/ Noah Locke shooting 1 of 14 from the field.

These teams may be separated by five games in the SEC standings, but that is not an accurate measure of how they match up. Florida has a superior defensive efficiency rating (top 10 in the country). Granted, LSU is the better offensive team. But College Basketball may be the one sport left where "defense wins championships." LSU has a losing ATS record as a favorite this season. Last week, when they faced Kentucky, the Tigers probably benefited from UK having a "lookahead" to Tennessee (which UK won). Now, it's LSU w/ the lookahead to Tennessee this weekend and they're laying points. Bad spot. 8* Florida

8* Xavier (7:00 ET): A late surge gave Seton Hall an 81-75 road win over Creighton this past Sunday. It was the Pirates' third win in a row overall and fourth in five games. They scored 51 points in the 2nd half, which was a season-high. As a result, the Pirates are now tied for third place in the Big East (w/ St. John's) at 7-6 SU. Recent showings are a far cry from last month when they dropped four in a row at one point. Tonight, they play host to a Xavier team they've already beaten, on the road, 80-70 as 3.5-point dogs. But the line looks a bit inflated for the rematch. Take the points. 

Xavier had gone through a terrible stretch, losing six in a row - both SU and ATS. But they've since won B2B games, beating Creighton and Providence in the last seven days. The latter win came on the road and saw the Musketeers prevail by 14 on the road. They actually trailed by six going into halftime, but totally dominated the 2H, outscoring the Friars 49-29. Tyrique Jones led the way w/ 19 pts and 12 rebounds. He made 9 of 11 shots from the field. It's not too often Xavier shoots as well as they did on Saturday. They were 59.2% from the floor overall including 8 of 14 from three-point range (season-best 57.1%). 

Xavier probably won't shoot that well again tonight, but they do get a slight advantage right off the bat by having an extra day to prepare for this rematch. They did not shoot the ball well at all in the first game vs. Seton Hall and I do expect them to improve on those numbers here tonight. Seton Hall is just 5-10 ATS as a favorite this season and their overall margin of victory is less than three points per game. The Pirates are also just 3-9 ATS at home. I can't call Xavier a great defensive team, but they have held B2B opponents to just 61 points. 8* Xavier

8* Under Predators/Stars (8:35 ET): To classify Dallas as an "Under team" is the equivalent of calling the Golden State Warriors "good at basketball." Well, maybe the former assertion is less known, but it certainly is no less true. I've previously discussed the somewhat "radical transformation" this Stars team has undergone. It actually started LY when they jumped from 29th (ahead of only a historically bad Colorado team) in the league for goals allowed (2016-17) to 6th. This year, they've taken a step further and rank 3rd. Thus, the Under is now 35-16-7 in all of their games. 

Unfortunately for the Stars, scoring matters too. They've failed to score even a single goal in the last two games, getting shutout by both Tampa Bay (6-0!) and Carolina (3-0). For the year, they are now 29th (third worst) in the league in goals per game. So, you can see how this club has been such a boon for Under bettors. Even O/U lines of 5.5, which used to be standard (but not so much anymore) haven't prevented the Unders from rolling in. The Under is 7-1-1 their last nine games with four of those seeing either them or the opponent get shutout. 

Tonight, Dallas hosts Nashville. This is the third time these teams have met this month. The previous two, predictably, both stayed Under. Both games took place in Nashville w/ the Preds winning the last one (3-1) after losing the initial battle, 3-2. Nashville has seen 7 of its last 10 games go Under, but not the last one as they gave up five goals in Vegas. I don't see them giving up that many here as they rank 4th (right behind Dallas) in goals allowed per game. This is basically the opposite of yesterday's Over play on Ottawa-Chicago, the two teams that give up the most goals per game in the league. Expect this to be a real low-scoring affair. 8* Under Predators/Stars

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): One of the strangest things in the NHL has to be the Devils seeming "mastery" of the Penguins. It's not like these teams could even be considered remotely equal. Over both the short-term (this season) and the last several seasons, the Pens have been the better team. Yet, New Jersey has still found a way to win six of the seven meetings (6-0-1) including all three this season where they've outscored Pittsburgh 15-6. I'd like to point out that the Devils have basically been in last place in the Metro all season and currently have only 54 points to their name. 

I see Pittsburgh breaking through tonight. Right now, they really need two points. They find themselves tied w/ Columbus for third in the Metro and are just one point up on hard-charging Carolina. As things stand now, the Pens would be a Wild Card entrant in the playoffs, but that position is precarious at best. I do see them as better than their current spot though, given they have a top five goal differential in the Eastern Conference. They've certainly had little difficulty scoring of late as they are averaging more than four goals per over the last five games. They scored six in a win over the Rangers Sunday. 

New Jersey comes into tonight off B2B wins. This may not seem like a monumental feat, but for them it's just the third time doing so since starting the season 4-0. Their only win streak of more than two games took place in late December. This is the first time they've posted consecutive wins since mid-January. One of them saw the Devils rally from a three-goal deficit in Minnesota, a game where they were huge underdogs (closed +240) on the ML. I just can't see them winning again, let alone another time against a Penguins team that is clearly superior. 8* Pittsburgh

8* Nebraska (7:00 ET): The Cornhuskers certainly fell victim to a monumental slide in January, not only losing seven straight games, but failing to cover the spread in all seven losses as well. Some of that can be tied to the loss of the team's second leading scorer, Isaac Copeland Jr. But the slide had actually begun prior to Copeland's season-ending ACL injury and was quite mystifying. This is a team I had ranked in the top 15 of my own power rankings at one point. Thankfully, they have stopped the bleeding some w/ B2B wins over Minnesota and Northwestern in the last week. They even covered the spread against N'western, winning 59-50 as a 5.5-point choice in Lincoln. 

We may have FINALLY reached the point where the Cornhuskers are truly being undervalued. Tonight, they face a Penn State team they've already beaten, 70-64, back on January 10th. They did not cover the spread in that game (were -10.5), but I certainly think it's instructive to look at how far the line has shifted for this rematch. Nebraska has gone from a DD favorite to a slight underdog here and I don't think that's warranted, even after factoring in the Copeland injury and change of venue. Penn State has won only twice in Big 10 play and both times came as an underdog. The two times they were favored both resulted in outright losses here in Happy Valley.

Exactly one week ago, the Nittany Lions did pull off a big upset here at home as they beat Michigan 75-69 as seven-point dogs. But that was followed up w/ a double digit loss at Purdue on Saturday. I do feel that Penn State has fallen victim to some "bad luck" this season, but that's all water under the bridge now. They are only 6-6 SU at home and have suffered five outright losses here (SU loss when favored). Tonight marks just the 5th time Nebraska has been an underdog all season. So as said earlier, we finally may have reached the point where they can truly be considered "undervalued." I expect them to win tonight. Take the points. 8* Nebraska

10* Toledo (7:00 ET): This will be the second straight game we're fading Eastern Michigan. The decision worked out quite well on Saturday as they lost at Kent State, 71-58, which was my top NCAAB play for all of last week. The Eagles were facing a revenge-minded Golden Flashes team there, one that they'd beaten by 34 (here in Ypslianti) earlier in the season. Now EMU does get a slight edge tonight by returning home, but that alone will not be enough against a superior Toledo side, which had won five in a row before losing to conference leader Buffalo in its last game. Lay the short number here. 

Despite losing (at home) to Buffalo on Friday, Toledo is still out in front in the MAC's Western Division w/ an 8-4 SU conference record. Two of those four losses are to Buffalo, who is quite clearly the class of this league. The Rockets were certainly a lot more competitive the second time around, losing by only six after getting blown out by 30 up in Buffalo. One of their other two conference losses came by two against Kent State, an overtime game where they blew a 17-point lead. So a strong case could be made for the Rockets being called the MAC's 2nd best team. They are 20-5 SU overall and actually led Buffalo 17-4 out of the gate Friday night. This is a strong three-point shooting team (36.6% of total pts come from behind the arc), which likely spells trouble for an offensively-challenged EMU squad.

Eastern Michigan scored only 58 pts in the loss to Kent State on Saturday. That's not too out of the ordinary as they have averaged only 57.3 points the L4 games. It would be one thing if their struggles scoring were confined to the road. But in a recent home game vs. Northern Illinois, they were held to just 48 points. I'm not even going to get into an early season loss at Rutgers where they set a NCAA record for futility, scoring just FOUR points in the 1st half. For the year, the Eagles are shooting below 30% from three-point range, which is beyond reproach. The slow pace at which they play is hurt by the fact they are turning the ball over at a 21% rate in conference play. Toledo has won 15 of the 17 games it has been favored in this season. 10* Toledo

10* West Virginia (9:00 ET): Back on January 9th, a result took place that set both Kansas State and West Virginia on their respective paths in the Big 12. K-State rallied back from a 21-point deficit to defeat WVU, 71-69, as four-point favorites in Manhattan. The Wildcats, despite losing Saturday to Iowa State, still lead the conference w/ a 9-3 SU record. West Virginia, plagued by injuries all season, is having a down year and is just 2-10 SU in conference play. But the line for Monday's rematch looks like a classic "overlay" to me and I'm taking the points here. 

I mentioned that WVU has been hit hard by injuries this season. Well, Kansas State just had a brutal week in that department itself. Already w/o sixth man Cartier Diarra, the Wildcats lost preseason Big 12 Player of the Year Dean Wade to a foot injury in the loss Saturday to Iowa State. Wade's absence was immediately felt as the from the time he went out of the game, KSU was outscored 23-14. They lost the game by a final score of 78-64. This isn't the first time this year that Wade has been injured. He missed several weeks earlier in the year and that played a big role in the team starting slow. The Wildcats lost two of the six games Wade missed previously. Also, three of their four wins without him were by four points or less. One was the aforementioned West Virginia game.

I think it's interesting that the Mountaineers were only four-point underdogs in Manhattan, but now are catching an even bigger number in Morgantown. Yes, it's been a down year here and yes the team is short-handed. But now so too is Kansas State, who is w/o two of their top six rotation players. Given that, I wouldn't want any part of laying this many points on the road, especially since this is just the 2nd time K-State will be a road favorite in Big 12 play. The Wildcats are just 1-5 SU/ATS all-time in Morgantown w/ that one win coming back in 2013. WVU is going to be highly motivated here, not just because of revenge, but also after being embarrassed at Kansas over the weekend. They are 6-1 ATS the L3 seasons when off 3+ ATS losses, including 3-0 ATS this season. 10* West Virginia

10* Over Senators/Blackhawks (8:35 ET): These two teams are tied for the most goals allowed per game in the league, which is quite the dubious distinction. Therefore, it's no shock to see a high total for this game. But it's still not high enough. Ottawa is really "generous" when they're the road team, giving up a whopping 4.25 goals per game. Chicago has seen its last eight games all go Over the total and this one should be no different. Take the Over.

So Ottawa is actually off a rare win here and a shocking one at that as they won in Winnipeg on Saturday, 4-3 (in OT). That was obviously an Over as the Senators were able to pepper the Jets w/ 41 shots on goal. Incredibly, they were still able to win despite giving up TWO short-handed goals in the first period. Like I said, the Sens are no stranger to giving up their fair share of goals as they've allowed a total of 10 in just the past three games. In addition to being tied w/ Chicago for the most goals per game allowed, Ottawa also allows the most shots per game (36.3).

The Blackhawks aren't too far behind in the shots allowed department, giving up 35.3 per game. That's the second highest number in the league. Lately, Chicago has been giving up a ton of shots on goal w/ the L5 opponents averaging nearly 40 per game. Columbus won here in the Windy City, 5-2, on Saturday night. That marked the 8th consecutive Blackhawks game w/ at least seven total goals scored. They had 41 shots on goal themselves vs. the Blue Jackets. This has all the makings of a real high-scoring affair. 10* Over Senators/Blackhawks

10* Buffalo (6:05 ET): The Sabres were the talk of the league for awhile as they won 10 straight games back in November. But as I said in my analysis Friday, they've been nothing but mediocre otherwise. Take that one win streaak away and they're just 18-22-7 SU overall. Now I was still able to punch a winning ticket in their last game as I had the Over in a 6-2 loss to the Rangers. Note that had been a competitive game before a late barrage from the Rangers, who scored three times in the final four minutes. Desperation is really starting to grow for Buffalo as they are fifth in the Atlantic and five points out of the Wild Card. Fortunately for tonight, they find themselves in New Jersey where they'll take on the last place Devils. This is a critical two points for the Sabres and I think they grab them. 

I think it helps Buffalo here that NJ is off a win. As you might guess is the case w/ a last place team, the Devils don't win B2B games very often. Since starting the year 4-0, they have put together just three win streaks, two of them just the two game variety. It was a 5-4 win in Minnesota Friday, a game which went to overtime after the Devils rallied from a three-goal deficit. They trailed by two midway into the third period and didn't get the equalizer until only 2:45 was left in regulation. The Devils have still given up 17 goals the L3 games and are 9-20 SU after giving up 4+ in the last game. This isn't a good team and they lost 5-1 the last time they faced the Sabres. 

Of course, it hasn't helped the Devils' cause that they have been w/o MVP Taylor Hall. Goaltending has also been a real issue no matter who is between the pipes. Friday was Corey Schnieder's first win in 14 months! It's unclear who will get the start tonight, but none of the options are great. Buffalo has won three straight times off a SU loss and they are 10-4 SU this season following a loss by two or more goals. This is a really good price to go against a bad team like New Jersey. 10* Buffalo 

10* Creighton (3:00 ET): Revenge was a key theme to our success yday in College Hoops as two of our three winners had revenge for an earlier season loss. Creighton is in that same spot Sunday as they host Seton Hall. This is a pretty quick rematch as the teams just played last Saturday w/ the Pirates prevailing at home, 63-58, a game where neither side shot the ball well. Back in Omaha, Creighton should bounce back as it's getting to be desperation time for the Blue Jays, who have lost three in a row (all on the road). Once again, I'll lay the points w/ a revenge-minded short home favorite. 

Creighton was competitive in each of its three losses over the L2 weeks. They lost at Villanova by seven, Seton Hall by five and Xavier by three (in OT). Note that they didn't score more than 61 pts in any of those three games, which is atypical for a side that averages almost 80 PPG for the year. The last two games in particular saw poor shooting, the one vs. Seton Hall in particular where they finished just 30.3% from the field. It was their worst shooting night of the season. Anyway, expect a lot more offensively from the Blue Jays here as they return home where they average over 80 PPG (83.7 to be exact) on 51.6% shooting. Recent results are simply not indicative of what this team is capable of here. 

Seton Hall had lost five of six before beating Creighton eight days ago. After winning that first meeting, the Pirates were able to beat Georgetown earlier in the week, 90-75. That was also at home. The road has been unkind to Seton Hall in conference play as they've dropped five in a row away from home. Their last road win came at Xavier on 1/2. Now three of those five losses have been by four points or less. But I wouldn't trust them here as the Pirates are only 2-5 ATS this season after scoring 80+ points. Keep in mind that the majority of Creighton's Big East losses have been close games as well. Revenge and home court advantage are again key Sunday afternoon. 10* Creighton

8* Over Houston/Tulane (2:00 ET): As far as mismatches go, this just may be the biggest on the Sunday College Hoops card. Houston leads the American w/ an 11-1 SU conference record (24-1 SU overall) and has won nine straight games. Today, they're facing last place Tulane, who is 0-11 SU in conference play and 4-19 SU overall. Obviously, I'd love to play Houston here, but the spread is massive and I worry about a late game scenario where the underdog could pull out a backdoor cover. But there is the total, which was set too low as Houston should score "at will" here and Tulane should score enough to help push this one Over. 

Houston averages a healthy 75 PPG and should top that number today. The last time they faced a bottom-feeder from the conference was January 23rd vs. East Carolina and they scored 94 pts in that game. Now that was at home, but the Cougars' scoring doesn't drop off that much on the road. Plus, Tulane has allowed an average of 78.3 PPG in conference play. They just allowed 80 (here at home) on Thursday to Tulsa.

The lack of scoring from the Green Wave is a bit disconcerting, but it's not like they're going to shoot any worse here than they have in the last two games. They made only 27.6% of their FGA vs. Tulsa and only 36.7% at Wichita State last weekend. Houston is an excellent defensive team, but still, if this game were to get "out of hand" early (a distinct possibility!), then we probably won't be seeing the usual defensive intensity from the Cougars. Tulane's last four games have all stayed Under, but this number opened much lower than where those lines closed. Something like an 80-63 final certainly seems within the realm of possibility here and that would mean an Over. 8* Over Houston/Tulane

8* Kentucky (8:00 ET): Tennessee's #1 ranking gets its stiffest test to date here as they must go to Lexington and face a UK team that is going to be quite angry after losing to LSU earlier this week. Coach Cal's Wildcats had won 10 in a row before losing Tuesday here at Rupp Arena. Perhaps they got caught looking ahead to this showdown as they blew an eight-point halftime lead and lost on a controversial put-back at the buzzer. I don't see them dropping B2B home games. With all due respect, I don't know many (other than the pollsters) that think the Vols are really the top team in America. Lay the short number.

Kentucky had mostly been dominating before losing Tuesday to LSU. Maybe it was what they needed to refocus them for this Saturday night showdown. That was their first loss all year at home where they are now 14-1 SU and +17.4 PPG. Overall, they had won 17 straight at home. Defensively, I give UK a pretty significant edge in this matchup. They are top 8 in the country in defensive efficiency (per KenPom) while Tennessee is just 40th. The Vols are giving up an average of 76.9 PPG away from Knoxville this season. That simply won't cut it here as Kentucky is giving up just 62.2 PPG at home.

Tennessee is 23-1 SU, but like I already said, I'm not sure many outside the Volunteer State truly believe this to be the top team in America. They've held that spot for over a month, but that's mostly a byproduct of who they've played. Yes, they did beat Gonzaga in the non-conference portion of the schedule and won 19 in a row (school record) overall. But the schedule, particularly the SEC portion, hasn't been that challenging. Remember they needed OT to win at Vandy. The Vols definitely would NOT be a favorite on a neutral floor vs. the likes of Duke, Gonzaga or Virginia and they do not deserve to be favored here either. The time has come for them to lose. There's really no shame in it. 8* Kentucky

10* Kent State (7:00 ET): Massive revenge game for the Golden Flashes here. They owe Eastern Michigan a little payback due to an ugly 34-point loss up in Ypsilanti last month. Though they have won two straight coming into Saturday, Eastern Michigan rarely turns in a performance as strong as they one we saw vs. Kent last month. The Eagles shot a ridiculous 65.4% overall and were 12 of 19 from three-point range. Meanwhile, Kent State was an abysmal 35.5% from the field, including 9 of 28 from three-point range. Again, it's not like Eastern Michigan is some kind of offensive juggernaut. Earlier this year, they turned in a new record futility w/ just FOUR 1st half pts against Rutgers. I'll take the revenge-minded home chalk.

Since losing to EMU, Kent State has been a pretty good basketball team. Their record is 6-2 SU the L8 games w/ one of those losses coming to MAC-leader Buffalo. The other was to rival Akron in a rough spot last Friday. I actually faded the Golden Flashes there, noting two of their previous three wins had come in OT. The team is a perfect 8-0 SU in games decided by 4 pts or less this season, so they've been equally "lucky" as they have been good. At home though, they've been more the latter as they average 79.4 PPG here w/ an 11-3 SU record. They have won 10 of the 12 games where they've been favored this season, so the Flashes are definitely "taking care of business." Thursday, they beat Western Michigan by 19 on the road.

After its blowout win over Kent, Eastern Michigan immediately lost five of its next six w/ the lone win being another "outlier" performance (against Western Michigan). Over the last week though, the Eagles have turned in two strong defensive efforts in holding Northern Illinois to 49 and Ohio U 57 points. Such an effort here would surprise me in what is a second road game in three nights. Eastern Michigan is just 4-8 ATS (2-10 SU) as an underdog this season, so a second straight outright upset would definitely be "out of the ordinary." 10* Kent State

8* Over Flames/Penguins (1:05 ET): As I've stated previously, it certainly appears as if the All-Star Break came at the wrong time for Calgary. They were the hottest team going in, but have lost five of six (including four straight) coming out. Thursday night was a bitter result for me as I had them only to watch as they went down 3-2 in overtime at Florida. A significant issue since the Break has been the number of goals allowed. They've given up a total of 25 in the six games and now they face the Penguins, who are a top five team in the league in scoring. I look for this game to go Over. 

Of course, Calgary is no slouch offensively either as they are third in the league in scoring. Before the loss to Florida on Thursday, the Flames' last five games had all gone Over the total. Thus, it's no surprise that we have a high total here, but the reality is the oddsmakers probably can't set it high enough. An issue I saw w/ the Flames in the first half is that the level of play they were getting between the pipes was probably unsustainable. Sure enough, Dave Rittich (who had been carrying them in the 1H) has an .853 save percentage his L4 starts. 

Pittsburgh averages 3.5 goals per game at home, so we're gonna see plenty of scoring from both sides this afternoon. The Pens have won their last two games, giving up just one goal in both, but those were against Philadelphia and Edmonton, who are both in the bottom third of the league in scoring. The Over is 15-3 in Calgary's last 18 games overall. The Over is 5-2 in the last seven head to head meetings as well, including a stunning 9-1 result from earlier this year that was in Pittsburgh's favor. That game took place very early in the season (Oct 25th) and while things won't that one-sided this go around, they very well should be as high scoring. 8* Over Flames/Penguins

10* Green Bay (1:00 ET): This is a massive revenge spot for the Phoenix, for they lost in Detroit last month. They didn't just lose mind you; they got blown out, 101-83, in a game the oddsmakers had listed as a pick 'em. At the time, Green Bay was the last remaining unbeaten in the Horizon League. But Detroit was red-hot from the field, shooting 53.6% overall and making 14 three-pointers. I know the oddsmakers have to make some adjustment for this rematch, but Green Bay is at home and should be favored by more than this. I'm laying the points.

To say the shooting we saw from Detroit the first time around was "irregular" would be quite the understatement. The Titans are not a team that typically shoots the ball well. In fact, their FG% for the year is below 40.0 on the road. Defensively, they have their issues as well, giving up 77.8 PPG overall and 81.3 PPG on the road. I should also mention that this will be the 4th consecutive road game for Detroit. They did win last time out (Thursday at Milwaukee), but still gave up 83+ pts for a third straight game. It should be noted that Milwaukee isn't exactly a good team either and Detroit was still listed as a slight underdog. The market hardly has much respect for the Titans and rightly so.

Green Bay is a much better team at home than on the road, which is all too common at this level. The Phoenix are 9-2 SU here on campus, thanks to averaging 89.6 PPG! Defensively, they're also a lot better at home as they allow only 74.9 PPG. That kind of point differential here at home, plus revenge, make the Phoenix a pretty easy call for me Saturday. Green Bay won here Thursday, 66-54 over Oakland, in arguably their finest defensive effort of the season. They likely won't be that stingy again, but I also expect them to shoot a lot better than they did Thursday (34.4%). Their 2nd leading scorer (JayQuan McCloud) didn't even make a shot! He's a 14 PPG scorer. The Phoenix are 6-1 ATS the L7 times laying 3.5 to 6 pts at home. 10* Green Bay