10* Orlando (7:05 ET): Can Sacramento really pull a fourth consecutive outright upset, tonight? I'm willing to bet that the answer is "no." Last night, the Kings went to Miami and upset the Heat, 123-113 as nine-point dogs. Like I alluded to, it was their third straight outright win as a dog. The previous two were at home and saw them beat Memphis 97-92 (as a 3-pt dog) and Washington 116-112 (as a 5-pt dog). Tonight, they are a pretty short dog in Orlando. I get that the Magic have dropped four of five and aren't exactly inspiring as home favorites (were 2-10-1 ATS in that role LY). But they are well rested (two days off) while the Kings are playing the second game of a back to back. Sacramento is also 1-13 SU/2-12 ATS when coming off a double-digit win the L3 seasons.

Orlando should play a lot better here than what we saw from them on Saturday in Milwaukee. There, they lost 113-91 while shooting only 32.7% from the field. But that was on the road and against an unbeaten team. The Magic have actually taken on a pretty challenging schedule in the early going, facing the Sixers, Celtics, Blazers and Bucks in the last four games and three of those (not the Blazers) were on the road. Tonight will be the 1st time all season that they are favored and they have previously pulled upsets over both the Heat and Celtics. I see them playing their "best game" of the season tonight.

While you have to hand it to Sacramento for winning three straight, a lot of history is against them tonight. For starters, they are just 1-3 ATS the L3 seasons when on a win streak of three or more games. They have only two win streaks of more than three games during that time. Playing w/o rest has been unkind to this team as well as they are just 12-24 SU in the second game of a back to back. They did win one earlier this year, vs. Memphis, but that was also at home. This is the second of back to back road games. It just seems like a logical spot for them to fall. 10* Orlando 

10* Buffalo (8:20 ET): This is a real "hold your nose and take the points" type situation. But before you go and write off this Bills chances here, be aware that they weren't as bad as the final score showed last week vs. Indianapolis. Total yardage was only -73 and the offense gained a strong 5.51 yards per play. The problem was five turnovers. As long of a season as it's been in upstate NY, the Bills still are fielding the fourth best defense in the league. This would be just the 4th time in the history of MNF that a home team is an underdog of 14 points. The three previous teams have gone a perfect 3-0 ATS. I think that defense can keep them in this one, even w/ Derek Anderson back at QB. 

New England seems to be humming along again after a 1-2 SU start. They've won four straight. But they've also given up a total of 71 pts the last two weeks. Now those games came against two quality foes, including Kansas City. But note that LW's game at Chicago was somewhat of a struggle. They needed TWO special teams TDs and a Hail Mary stop at the goal line on the game's final play. The road hasn't been that kind to the Patriots this season as LW was their 1st win after a pair of double digit losses. Something else to note is that they've committed at least one turnover in every game this season. 

Buffalo hasn't won a MNF game since 1999. They haven't won a MNF home game since '94! So, despite being seemingly outgunned and outmanned, expect a spirited atmosphere and motivated underdog. As ugly a season debut as it was last week, Derek Anderson's 175 yards passing were actually the team's most in four weeks. I think the potential loss of LeSean McCoy is somewhat overblown considering the tandem of Chris Ivory and Marcus Murphy combined to average 6.1 yards per carry last week. Since 2012, as a double digit road favorite, the Patriots are just 1-4-1 ATS w/ two outright losses. The Bills have been a DD home dog only three times in the last 30 years and have covered twice. No matter the teams, my view will almost always be that this is too many points to lay on the road. 10* Buffalo

10* Indiana (7:05 ET): This is a pretty interesting Monday night matchup in NBA. Both teams fancy themselves as legit contenders in their respective conference, more so than the public probably does. Both are off to decent starts. Portland is 3-2 SU w/ one of its losses coming by a single point in overtime. All five of their games have gone Over the total. Indiana is 4-2 SU and just won B2B games on the road, both by double digits. They're a short favorite here at home tonight and I'll lay the number considering the Blazers are playing a third road game in five nights. The Pacers also have double revenge from last season when they lost both meetings.

Indiana beating Cleveland rather convincingly might not seem all too impressive considering the Cavs' winless record. But note it was still a road game for the Pacers, who were outrebounded and w/o sixth man Tyreke Evans (who is averaging 12.5 PPG). Still, led by Victor Oladipo's 24 pts, six Pacers finished the game in double figures (including all five starters) and the team shot a blistering 64.9% overall from the floor! That probably speaks to how bad Cleveland is defensively, but I still think it's impressive the Pacers could win a game by double digits on the road despite there being some obvious areas for improvement (like FT shooting). Evans will be back in the lineup tonight. Indiana is also 2-0 at home so far, having won both games by 20+ points. 

Portland is not that great defensively (giving up 117.2 PPG), so it could be another big night for Indiana offensively. While they rallied to take the lead in the fourth quarter Saturday night, the Blazers actually trailed by as many as 19 down in Miami. This is a team that has given up 108 or more points in regulation in every game this season. They've allowed 114 or more in all but one game. Look for an Indiana team that's actually playing some defense (102.8 PPG allowed) to exploit this. Both teams are top six so far in offensive efficiency, but the key is that the Pacers are also top five on the defensive end. They're at home and have covered all three times they've been favored so far this year. 10* Indiana 

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): I've played against Calgary each of their last two games. Both plays turned out to be winners. What's bad for the Flames is that both of those losses occurred at home. The first was downright embarrassing as they were beaten 9-1 by Pittsburgh. Then came a 4-3 loss to Washington. The club has now dropped three in a row overall and things get no easier Monday as they make the cross-country trip to Toronto. At 8-3, the Maple Leafs are off to a really strong start and their 16 points are currently tied for most in the league. I'll play against Calgary yet again! 

Considering the respective form of the two clubs, you might be wondering why we're able to get the Leafs at such an affordable price, on home ice no less. Well, star Auston Matthews is going to have to sit this one out due to a shoulder injury sustained in Saturday's come from behind win over Winnipeg. Matthews, who has 10 goals and six assists, has clearly been the driving force behind his team ranking 3rd in the league in goals per game (also #2 on the power play). But Toronto has been able to win w/o him before as they were 11-7-2 in the 20 games he missed last season. Note that they were able beat Winnipeg despite no points from Matthews. This team has enough scoring options and I believe this ML is an overreaction by the oddsmakers. One player, even one of Matthews' caliber, should not make that big of a difference. 

Toronto should still be able to score plenty against Calgary's suspect goaltending. The Flames come into tonight w/ a woeful .885 save percentage and are 22nd in the league in goals allowed per game. They were fortunate to salvage a point against Washington as they tied the game up at the end of regulation by pulling the goalie in favor of an extra attacker. But they still lost in a shootout. Speaking of losing, that's primarily what the Flames have done here in Toronto through the year as they've lost 16 of their last 19 visits. 8* Toronto

8* Utah (7:05 ET): After an impressive 132-111 win last night in New Orleans, the Jazz are a perfect 3-0 on the road. It's too bad then that they're 0-2 SU at home or we'd be talking about them living up to the preseason hype. Many, myself among them, feel this team is destined to finish #2 in the West (behind the Warriors). Last night was definitely a step in the right direction as they hung 132 on an unbeaten Pelicans squad. Tonight's game should be pretty easy as well. Lay the points. 

Dallas is the exact opposite of the Jazz as they're 2-0 at home, but 0-3 on the road. They're off B2B losses in Atlanta and Toronto, though they were able to at least cover in the latter. But that came as 11-pt underdogs. Save for the Raptors, it's not exactly been a challenging slate of opponents for the Mavs. They have also faced the Suns, T'wolves, Bulls and Hawks, four bad teams. The biggest problems has been poor shooting as they are at just 43.9% overall and that would be even lower if not for the 140-pt game (shot 50%) against Minnesota. 

What makes this an ideal matchup for Utah is they have held three straight opponents below 43% shooting. They projected as the best defensive team in the league before the year started. They were #2 in defensive efficiency last season. Remember that Dallas was one of only two teams that did NOT average 100 PPG LY. The Mavs are also letting their opponents shoot 48% from three-point range, the worst mark in the league. Utah is off its best offensive game of the year last night and that should carry over. 8* Utah

8* Oakland (4:05 ET): Needless to say, the Raiders are officially at "rock bottom." Reports of discontent are rampant with anonymous players questioning the leadership of both HC Jon Gruden and QB Derek Carr. The team is 1-5 SU w/ its only win coming in overtime against Cleveland, a game in which they trailed by two touchdowns in the second half. Two weeks ago, they were humiliated over in London in a 27-3 loss to the Seahawks (just 185 total yds). The Khalil Mack trade was obviously highly questionable in retrospect and now Gruden has chosen to deal top receiver Amari Cooper. But the Silver and Black are off a bye, which came at an opportune time I think. As bad as things have been, I don't think Oakland should be a home dog to the Colts. Take the points. 

Indianapolis is off a win, a rarity, and it was easily their most impressive showing to date. Of course, it helped playing Buffalo, who was starting its third QB of the year (Derek Anderson), just signed off the street. Going inside the numbers reveals the Colts may not have been as dominant as you think. They only had a +73 edge in total yards, enough to justify a win, but certainly not indicative of the final margin of victory. The key was being +5 in turnovers, which is a margin that will almost always guarantee victory. The Colts' often leaky defense still permitted 5.5 yards per play. Of course, they entered the game ranked 30th in total defense.

As bleak as things may look in Oakland right now (no Marshawn Lynch!), things can't get any worse. Indianapolis being a road favorite seems like a case of putting the "cart before the horse" as it's a role they haven't found themselves but one time since 2015. My numbers still indicate the Raiders should be favored here. One player that could still make a difference is TE Jared Cook. The Colts defense is giving up 8.4 yards per attempt to tight ends this year. This is one of those times you just have to "hold your nose" and take advantage of the public's poor perception of the Raiders right now. The numbers say we're getting a good value. 8* Oakland

10* Seattle (1:00 ET): I see the better team getting points in this one AND the Seahawks are off a bye. Sounds like a good play to me. Early on in the season, it appeared as if Seattle could be headed toward a rebuilding year as they started out w/ road losses to Denver and Chicago. But both of those were one-score games and ever since, they've won three of four w/ the only loss coming by two points to the undefeated Rams. Interestingly enough, it's been a somewhat similar story for the Lions, who also opened 0-2, including that embarrassing performance on MNF against the Jets. But they too have won three of four, not to mention covered five straight. They had the benefit of the bye last week, but this week the tables will be turned. Take the points.

The last time we saw Seattle, they turned in their most impressive performance of the year, blowing out Oakland over in London by a score of 27-3. It was a total blowout from start to finish w/ the defense holding the Raiders to 185 total yards. So much for this group taking a step back in the post Legion of Boom era. In each win, they've allowed 17 pts or fewer. Now, off the bye, LB K.J. Wright is set to make a season debut. On the offensive side of the ball, so too is tight end Ed Dickson, who will be a nice target for Russell Wilson. But the real key to this game probably resides at the line of scrimmage. Whichever team runs the ball better is probably going to win. Obviously, you've figured out by now that I think that's going to be Seattle. 

Detroit's defense is simply not very good, against the run or the pass. They are allowing 5.7 yards per carry, which should mean a big day for the Seahawks RB group of Chris Carson, Mike Davis and Rashaad Penny. As for the passing game, the Lions were shredded three weeks ago by Aaron Rodgers. That was actually a very lucky win as the Packers outgained them 521-264, but were -3 in turnovers. When coming off back to back wins, the Lions are just 5-5 SU and 3-6-1 ATS the L3 seasons. I look for their SU - and ATS - win streaks to come to an end here. 10* Seattle

10* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): The Browns have not fared well against the Steelers returning to the league back in 1999, which honestly is par for the course for this franchise's miserable second existence. Just six times they've beaten their rival and two of those wins came in the 1999 and 2000 seasons. So that means they are 4-31-1 their L36 meetings. Note the "1" at the end of that record. These teams tied back in Week 1 and I was on Cleveland, plus the points, which wound up being a relatively easy cover all things considered. But look at the value we're getting on the rested Steelers for this rematch. Whereas they were four-point favorites in Cleveland (and that line opened much higher), now they're only laying a little more than a touchdown at home.

If Cleveland couldn't beat Pittsburgh at home back in Week 1, then I'm not sure when they'll beat them. Weather was terrible and the Browns were +5 in turnover margin in that 21-21 tie. If you can't win at home w/ a +5 TO margin, there's something seriously wrong. According to a widely circulated tweet after that game, "Since the Browns returned to the NFL, teams with a turnover margin of +5 or better in a game are 132-4-1. The Browns are responsible for two of those losses and the tie." The Browns should be thankful that they were +5 in TO's in that game, however, as they were outgained 472-327. It's very unlikely that they will benefit from such a TO margin again this week. It might rain again, but it'll take more than Mother Nature to stop the Steelers this time. 

Browns' fans will want to point to the fact that #1 overall DC Baker Mayfield was not yet the starting QB back in Week 1 (Tyrod Taylor). Again, Mayfield's presence alone is not enough to change the result. In fact, since leading his team to a win over the Jets in Week 3, I feel that Mayfield's play has gotten progressively WORSE. Something to keep in mind here is that rookie QB's are just 4-20 SU vs. the Steelers since 2004 and the Browns have not won at Heinz Field since '03. The Steelers are coming off a bye and ready to roll. Meanwhile, the Browns defense just played a season-high 95 snaps in last week's OT loss at Tampa Bay, which was already their FOURTH OT game of the season. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Baltimore (1:00 ET): Many might be, but I am not surprised that the Ravens come in as a slight favorite here in Carolina. My numbers agree as despite the Panthers winning 16 of their last 23 games, they still grade out as a fairly average team. Last year, they were an extremely fortunate 7-2 SU in one-score games. They were 11-5 SU overall, but only outscored opponents by a meager 36 points, which is more indicative of a 9-win team. This year, the team is 4-2, but only +11 in point differential. They have two wins by four points or less and their only game decided by more than eight points was a win over Cincinnati where they finished +4 in turnovers. The Panthers have consistently proven to be more "lucky" than "good" and that was again the case last week as they made a stunning comeback (trailed 17-0 in 4Q) to beat the Super Bowl Champion Eagles on the road. 

Baltimore is 4-3 SU, but has only played one bad game all year, that being a Thursday night road game in Cincinnati. Last week was a brutal 1-pt home loss to New Orleans when usually sure-footed kicker Justin Tucker missed the potential game-tying XP. They also allowed 17 fourth quarter points last week to the Saints, highly irregular for them. I've said it before, but in a league where offense rules, the Ravens have attempted to be the exception to the rule. They've allowed 14 pts or less in five of seven games, the exceptions being the Thurs night game and last week vs. the high-powered Saints. This defense is #1 in the league in both scoring and yards allowed as well as sacks. 

I like the Ravens' chances of bouncing back from last week's tough defeat as they are a perfect 5-0 ATS off their previous five losses. Their previous loss was in overtime at Cleveland, a game their defense only allowed 12 points. They bounced back from that w/ a 21-0 shutout over the Titans. While the running the ball may be difficult against Carolina, expect QB Joe Flacco to find plenty of success through the air as the Panthers have already allowed 13 completions of 20+ yards, third most in the league. On the flip side, Carolina's run-heavy offense figures to have a lack of success against this Ravens' defense and that will be a problem. The Panthers are actually being outgained this year on a per play basis while Baltimore is +0.6, not to mention +106.4 YPG. 8* Baltimore

8* Arizona (10:30 ET): Oregon has played a pretty tough slate of Pac 12 opponents thus far and I can see them overlooking this game "after dark." We all recall the Ducks letting one slip away vs. Stanford last month, a game they pretty clearly should have won. But then they got a little lucky the next two games. Sure, winning at Cal 42-24 looks pretty convincing. But that had as much to do w/ being +5 in turnover margin as anything. Then came the big upset over Washington, 30-27 in Eugene. That game saw the Ducks outgained despite winning in overtime. Last week, "Lady Luck" caught up w/ them in what was a terrible spot up at Washington State. With ESPN in Pullman for the very 1st time, Oregon found themselves down 27-0 at the half. Playing a second straight road game does the Ducks no favors here and I'll take the points w/ Arizona. 

Year one of the Kevin Sumlin era in Tucson got off to quite the rocky start. Back to back losses to BYU and Houston opened the season, but ever since the Wildcats are a respectable 3-3 SU w/ two of those losses coming by four points or less. In fact, the team has three losses by five pts or less already this year. So save for Houston and Utah, both of which were road games, Sumlin's team has been competitive this year. I expect that to be the case again this week as they're not getting nearly enough respect as a home dog Saturday night. The big question mark will be QB as Khalil Tate is banged up and may not start. But Rhett Rodriguez (yes, the son of RichRod) seemed more than serviceable last week vs. UCLA as the offense gained 520 total yards. 

A real key to this game is who can win at the line of scrimmage. Arizona averages almost 200 yards rushing per game, but the Oregon defense is only giving up 3.23 yards per carry, which is top 20 in the country. Last year's meeting in Eugene did not go well for the Wildcats, but consider it was late in the season and they were playing for a lame duck HC (RichRod!). So the fact they lost by 20 doesn't really affect my handicapping of this game, one way or another. Arizona doesn't often get this many points here in Tucson and Oregon is just 3-10 SU and 3-9-1 ATS in road games the L3 seasons. As a road favorite, they are just 2-4 ATS w/ four outright defeats. 8* Arizona

8* Fresno State (10:30 ET): I believe Hawaii is a team whose unexpected early season success has begun to work against it. This was a 3-win team LY that was not projected to do well in 2018. Nevertheless, figuring there had to be "some" improvement, I took them plus a big number (+17) in the season opener at Colorado State. They shockingly won that game outright, 43-34. Little did we know at the time just how bad Colorado State would turn out to be. Even more shocking is that Hawaii would go on to win six of its first seven games overall, doubling last season's win total by the first weekend of October. Almost all of those wins came against really bad teams though and they also were fortunate to get Navy at home. Over the last two weeks, a bit of reality has set in w/ the Warriors dropping B2B games to BYU and Nevada by a combined 44 points. 

Fresno State may be one of the most underrated teams in the country. HC Jeff Tedford did one of the best jobs in America last season taking a team that had gone 1-11 SU the previous year and taking them to a 10-4 SU record w/ an appearance in the Mountain West Championship Game. Anyone expecting a dropoff in year 2 under Tedford seems to have been mistaken as the Bulldogs are now 6-1 SU themselves with every win coming in blowout fashion. They are outscoring opponents by more than 25 PPG and are also 6-1 ATS. That puts them at 16-3-2 ATS overall under Tedford, which has to be the best ATS record in the country over the last two years. The last three weeks have seen them outscore Nevada, Wyoming and New Mexico by a combined score of 86-13! 

While FSU is blowing everyone out (save for an early season loss at Minnesota), Hawaii's point differential is only +2.0 PPG w/ a very minor edge in yardage as well. So you can see why they're such a huge dog this week. I played against them late last Saturday when they were upset at home by Nevada, a team FSU beat 21-3 on the road. Hawaii is far less dangerous off the Island as you probably know. When I played against them earlier in the year at San Jose State (my *10* Game of the Month for September), I noted that they were only 6-32 SU in road games dating back to 2012. Well, they won that game, but never came close to covering as it was a 5OT affair. The Warriors are now 7-33 SU their L40 road games after getting blown out at BYU two weeks ago. This one has blowout written all over it as well. 8* Fresno State 

8* Chicago (7:35 ET): Personally, I don't think Atlanta should be favored by this many points against anybody. Even though they've won B2B games, I still have the Hawks as the lowest rated team in my own personal power ratings. Chicago is right ahead of them, so the spread here should be nothing more than the token three points for homecourt advantage. I realize the Bulls are in the second night of a back to back, and without multiple players, but this is a good value and I have them at least covering the spread. 

The Hawks two upsets have come at the expense of Cleveland and Dallas, two teams that aren't exactly world-beaters. Cleveland is still winless (only team in Eastern Conference w/o a win), so beating them isn't all that impressive and the Dallas win saw them down 26 points at one juncture. That was here at home and had they not shockingly come back to win, I think we'd be viewing them in a much different light coming into this game. As far as them being favored here, that happened only 12 times all of last season. Never were they asked to lay this many points and there were only two times they were favored by more than three points. I have to see more from them before we start calling them "improved." 

The Bulls are just 1-4 overall and 0-3 on the road. But two of their losses have been by six points or less. Last night was an ugly showing in Charlotte as they gave up a season-high 135 points. That caused HC Fred Hoiberg to quip "I know we are throwing a lot of makeshift lines out there, but it is not an excuse to not go out there and play hard." While w/o Kris Dunn, Lauri Markkanen, Denzel Valentine and Bobby Portis, the Bulls still have Zach LaVine, who is averaging 32.5 points per game. Tonight is also a homecoming for top draft pick Wendell Carter, Jr, who I expect to play well. Take the points. 8* Chicago

10* Stanford (7:00 ET): Washington State remains the nation's lone remaining unbeaten team against the spread. They are 7-0 ATS and coming off their biggest win of the year, 34-20 over Oregon LW in Pullman. But in many ways, that was the most ideal setup for Wazzu. They were off a bye and had the added emotion of ESPN's College GameDay coming to their campus for the very first time. This week shapes up as a pretty clear letdown spot to me as it will be their toughest road game to date. I know Stanford has been somewhat of a disappointment thus far and was pretty fortunate to beat Arizona State last week. But even if they don't have RB Bryce Love at 100%, they've had two extra days to prepare for this game and it's a short number to lay at home. 

Stanford was outgained last week in Tempe, 437-358, but was +3 in turnovers. One of those three TO's turned the game and it came at the end of the first half w/ the game tied 3-3. Arizona State was driving, but attempted a trick play that was intercepted. Stanford drove down to kick a FG and never trailed again. In fact, they were up 20-6 heading into the 4th quarter. This despite Love, clearly bothered an injured ankle, gaining only 21 yards on 11 carries. He didn't even play in the second half. Love being healthy would be a nice added bonus this week, but not a prerequisite to victory. Even w/ his worst game of the season LY coming against the Cougars, the Cardinal still only lost by three up in Pullman. They actually have double revenge coming into this game after winning the eight previous matchups.

While this will be Washington State's fourth road game of the season, they lost one to USC and the other two were against Wyoming and Oregon State, two bad teams. I concede that the defense has gotten a lot better under Mike Leach, something I never thought I would say, but they did give up 37 to Oregon State and 39 to USC. The numbers say Stanford's defense is pretty susceptible to the pass, but at home they are giving up just 15.7 PPG and they've allowed only seven passing touchdowns all season. If you ask me, Wazzu is due to not cover a game and coming off one of the most emotional victories in program history seems like an opportune time for that to happen. 10* Stanford

8* Washington (4:05 ET): Back on Thursday, I played on one of these teams and against the other. I split the pair as Washington failed to get the job in Edmonton, but Calgary was an easy fade as they went down 9-1 at the hands of Pittsburgh. My respective reads on the teams certainly haven't changed in the last 48 hours, so I'll again be backing the Caps in Alberta Saturday afternoon. Considering how badly the Flames were just beaten, I think this is an outstanding value.

Seeing the Caps get held to one goal Thursday night was definitely shocking. There had been only one time previous this year where they'd failed to score multiple goals and that was an embarrassing 6-0 shutout against the Devils on 10.11. The good news is that the Stanley Cup Champs typically bounce back after a poor offensive performance. Over the L3 seasons, they have gone 26-8 SU after scoring 1 goal or less the previous game. As a reminder, they rank 2nd in the league in goals per game currently and 1st on the power play. 

Calgary is certainly the ideal opponent for the Capitals' offense to get back on track. Thursday's 9-1 defeat at the hands of the Penguins was "all-time bad" in my eyes as the goaltending continues to be just horrible here. Mike Smith let in six of the nine goals, on just 21 shots. Backup David Rittich was no better, allowing three goals on just 15 shots. The Flames' collective save percentage for the year is now down to .882. Thursday was the fifth time this year that Calgary gave up 4+ goals. While they are 4-0 after the previous four times doing so, I believe that trend comes to an end Saturday afternoon against a superior opponent. 8* Washington

10* Houston (3:30 ET): This isn't the first time I've targeted South Florida and even if they were to lose here, it may not be the last. Easily the weakest of the six remaining unbeatens in College Football, USF is living on "borrowed time." Let's start w/ the fact they have trailed at the end of the first quarter in five of their seven games so far. They trailed in the fourth quarter against both Illinois and Tulsa - two teams w/ a combined 4-10 SU record - by two scores each. Georgia Tech and East Carolina both outgained the Bulls by 150+ yards. USF was able to beat Ga Tech w/ two kick returns for touchdowns. They were somehow able to beat East Carolina despite a 24-9 first down deficit. Then came last week's "blah" 38-30 win over UConn, who was a 33-pt underdog. 

Believe it or not, but this will be just the second time USF has been an underdog this season. (The other was vs. Ga Tech). It will be the first time they've had to face an opponent w/ a winning record! I've noted this previously, but it's a borderline joke that USF is even ranked in the top 25. For the sake of reference, I don't even have them in my top 80! To put things in further perspective, this is the first time EVER that an unbeaten team that's 7-0 SU or better is more than a field goal underdog to an unranked opponent. Furthermore, Houston has had USF's number the last couple years, including a 28-24 win in Tampa LY as 10-pt dogs. USF came into that game ranked (#17) and 7-0 SU as well and you saw what happened. This year's team is nowhere near as strong.

Houston likely won't have DL Ed Oliver, a top NFL prospect, for this game. But they will have QB D'Eriq King, who has a 23-3 TD-INT ratio. Last week, King directed an offense that gained 570 yards and scored 49 points despite just 17:27 TOP in a win over Navy, in Annapolis. Ironically, King reminds many of USF's former QB, Quinton Flowers. Unfortunately for the Bulls, Flowers' replacement (Blake Barnett) has throw just 10 TD passes and has seven interceptions. Note Houston is outscoring teams by 32.7 PPG here at home this season. They've lost just once, at Texas Tech, and have scored 41 or more points in every game. USF's unbeaten run comes to an emphatic end here. 10* Houston

8* Texas Tech (12:00 ET): I love the Red Raiders as an underdog in this spot as the line doesn't add up. Yes, Iowa State is at home and off a bye. And I had the Cyclones in their 30-14 upset over WVU two weeks ago, which was even more lopsided than the final score indicates. ISU has actually pulled B2B upsets as the week before WVU, they went to Stillwater and upset Oklahoma State 48-42 as 10-pt underdogs. I'm not surprised that the Cyclones are only 1-3 SU entering this game as I had them regressing before the season even started after they pulled four outright upsets LY en route to an 8-5 SU record. To me, this is a pick 'em type game and it should be mentioned the Red Raiders beat the same TCU team that beat ISU. They also beat another team off a bye last week, albeit it was Kansas. 

There are multiple factors that have me on the dog here. One is that for the 1st time in the history of the rivalry, Iowa State has beaten Texas Tech two years in row. Now, neither game was close and the last meeting here in Ames (2016) saw the Red Raiders handed their worst defeat in five years, 66-10 (and they were four-point favorites in that game!). Last year in Lubbock, ISU came in and pulled another upset, this time winning 31-13 as seven-point road dogs. I think it's important to mention here that the Cyclones are not often favored in conference play. The last time they were favored against someone other than Baylor or Kansas was 2014 against ... Texas Tech. They lost that game outright here at home. 

There is no denying that Iowa State has been a much better team since the change to Brock Purdy at QB. I noted as such in my analysis two weeks ago for the game vs. WVU. But last week saw Alan Bowman return to the field as Texas Tech's QB and the result was a 400+ yard passing day in a 48-16 blowout. I was very impressed w/ the way the Red Raiders were able to upset TCU w/o Bowman and a big reason for they did was a defense that is MUCH better than past years. In three Big 12 wins, the defense (returned 10 starters from LY) has allowed 17, 14 and 16 points. It's not too often we've been able to say this through the years, but do not be surprised if it is the Red Raiders' DEFENSE that leads them to pulling the upset this week. 8* Texas Tech

10* LA Dodgers (8:05 ET): The Dodgers are down 0-2 and in some real trouble in this series. But at least they're out of Fenway Park and back home where they have a much better chance at containing the Boston lineup. As I previously stated numerous times during the regular season and playoffs, no team in the National League did a better job at preventing runs at home than the Dodgers. For the year, they are giving up just 3.5 rpg at Chavez Ravine. In five playoff home games, they have allowed just seven runs TOTAL, giving up two or fewer in four. Remember that the Red Sox lose the DH from the lineup here and the pitcher will have to come up to bat. In a must win spot, I'll make my biggest bet of the year on Dodger Blue.

Walker Buehler is the Game 3 starter for LA and the right man for the job as far as I'm concerned. I've consistently touted him throughout his rookie season. He's always available at a much cheaper price than staff counterpart Clayton Kershaw, which probably shouldn't surprise you, but consider Buehler has the better ERA and WHIP. I took him in the winner take all Game 7 vs. Milwaukee in the NLCS and he delivered w/ 4 2/3 strong innings. He allowed just one run and had seven strikeouts. Here at home, Buehler has been at his best. A 4-3 record in 13 starts (8-5 TSR) at Dodger Stadium is totally misleading when you consider he has a 1.67 ERA and 0.769 WHIP here. 

Rick Porcello gets the nod for the Red Sox and that's another thing I like as he represents a huge downgrade from Chris Sale and David Price, who started Games 1 and 2. Furthermore, Porcello is a righty, providing a solid platoon edge for the Dodgers' left-handed power lineup. (Both Sale and Price are lefties). This is just the 4th time since the start of September that the Dodgers have dropped B2B games. They haven't lost three in a row since mid-August and I don't see them doing so here w/ their World Series aspirations hanging in the balance. 10* LA Dodgers

10* Houston (8:05 ET): Even w/o James Harden, I'm rolling w/ the Rockets here as they are the clearly superior team compared to the Clippers. Now you might not think that given their 1-3 SU start to the season w/ one of the losses coming out in LA. But that first meeting w/ the Clippers was the second half of a back to back as the Rockets had just beaten the Lakers in a spirited contest the previous night. Even worse, a fight at the end of that game w/ the Lakers left PG Chris Paul suspended for two games. So the Rockets are not strangers to being down a superstar when facing these Clippers. The difference last time was the Clippers bench scoring 56 points. Even so, the Rockets still only lost by three on the road. Things will be different this time around.

Paul was also suspended for Houston's last game, a 100-89 home loss to Utah. It's definitely been a challenging slate of games for the Rockets so far w/ Paul's suspension only compounding matters. But he'll be back in the lineup tonight, just in time to offset Harden's absence. Note that it was a tight game in the 4th quarter vs. Utah when Harden left w/ an apparent hamstring issue. The Jazz would go on to score the game's next 10 points and take control for good. I don't think much of Carmelo Anthony anymore, but he's here and had a season-high 22 points vs. Utah. With Harden out, expect him to be a bigger factor in the Rockets' offense. Certainly, having Paul and Anthony is enough to offset the loss of Harden. Note that Houston had only ONE losing streak of at least three games LY and it came around the X-Mas holiday. 

The Rockets shot only 40.2% from the field against the Jazz, who are one of the league's better defensive teams. Expect that shooting percentage to be way up tonight against the Clippers, who will be playing on the road for just the second time. Like Houston, LA got to know first hand what New Orleans is "all about" this season as they lost down in the Big Easy, 116-109, Tuesday night. The depth is there for HC Doc Rivers, but he wishes he had the "high end" talent Houston has. I look for the Rockets to be highly motivated in this early season revenge spot and I love the value we are getting due to the overreaction to the Harden injury. 10* Houston

10* Minnesota (8:00 ET): Despite both being long-time members of the Big 10, Indiana and Minnesota don't play each other very regularly. In fact, Friday will mark just the second meeting since 2008! The last one came back in '13 and saw the Golden Gophers go to Bloomington and pull off a 42-39 upset of the Hoosiers, as 7.5-pt underdogs. That of course means very little for handicapping this year's installment. What we do know though is that conference play has not treated either of these teams well in 2018. They've gone a combined 1-7 straight up w/ the only win being IU's over Rutgers and even that was only by a touchdown. Coming off close loss to a top ranked team (like Indiana is) can be a worse situation than is coming off a blowout loss to a bad team (like Minnesota is). I like the home dog in this one.

Minnesota is all too familiar w/ the situation their opponent is in this week. Two weeks ago, the Gophers had given it their all in a home loss to Ohio State that was a lot closer than the 30-14 final score indicates. So going on the road to face a winless Nebraska team should have been a nice bounce back spot. But it wasn't. They were instead humiliated in a 53-28 defeat w/ the defense giving up over 600 yards. PJ Fleck's defense is really struggling right now having allowed over 1100 yards the last two weeks. But I'm predicting this to be a bounce back spot at home. They opened this season by going 3-0 at home, allowing just 9 PPG. That was before a 48-31 loss to Iowa here at TCF Bank Stadium. I think Fleck and the coaching staff are going to treat this as the most important game of the season.

So here we find Indiana off a tough 33-28 home loss to Penn State where they had a 554-417 edge in total yardage. Note they lost one of their two QB's in that game, freshman Michael Penix, to a season-ending ACL injury. So it will have to be Peyton Ramsey exclusively the rest of the way. Minnesota also has a potential injury at QB w/ Zack Annexstad. But the difference is they have an advantage in the sense that the Indiana defense doesn't know who to prepare for, Annexstad or redshirt freshman Tanner Morgan, who completed 11 of 16 attempts last week for 214 yards in the second half. I don't think Indiana deserves to be a road favorite, a role they are just 2-5 ATS in the L3 seasons. Minnesota is 5-2 SU/ATS the L7 games w/ a line of three points or less. 10* Minnesota

8* Washington (9:05 ET): Edmonton will be a desperate team Thursday night as they look to avoid dropping a third straight home game. But desperation alone cannot carry them past the Stanley Cup Champions, unfortunately. While the Capitals have had their issues keeping the puck out of the back of the net at times, they've had no problem scoring themselves this season. Five times they've scored five or more goals in a game, including each of the last two. They're coming off a 5-2 win in Vancouver and should get two more points here as they continue their trek across Canada.

Edmonton is off an overtime loss to the Penguins. They went down by a score of 6-5, a game in which they outshot the opponent 46-31. Still, I suppose that was an improvement from being shutout by Nashville the previous game. What a tough stretch this has been for the Oilers having to play three of the league's top teams in a row. Saturday night, they'll be in Nashville. Despite all the hype that surrounds this team, I just don't think they're "there" yet ("there" meaning ready to successfully compete w/ the league's elite). If I'm Edmonton, I'd be especially concerned w/ goalie Cam Talbot facing the Caps as he's already given up eight goals his last two starts.

Surprisingly, Washington has yet to post B2B victories this season. That'll change after tonight. This team is just too talented to go too long w/o consecutive victories. They are #1 in the league in scoring (4.3 goals per game) and also have the #1 power play (38.7 percent). That's too much for the Oilers, who rank in the bottom third of the league in both goals scored and allowed. 8* Washington

10* Pittsburgh (9:05 ET): Calgary sure seems to be a getting a lot of respect here. I know it's a home game, but even so, I certainly do not see them as being on the same level as Pittsburgh. The Penguins have started a four city Canadian trek by winning in Toronto (3-0) and Edmonton (6-5). Tonight, they go for B2B wins in Alberta and I believe the two points are for the taking considering how many shots on goal the Flames have allowed recently. Look for the Pens' offense to carry them to another victory. 

Sidney Crosby had one for the highlight reel Tuesday night in Edmonton as he scored the game winner in overtime. "It's probably been a while since I've had a nice one like that. I'll take it," Crosby said. Something that the team will gladly "take" is that number of shots allowed by Calgary the last two games. Poor goaltender Dave Rittich has been under siege worse than Steven Seagal, having to make 81 saves. Make 44 saves was enough to beat the Rangers 4-1 on Sunday, but he could "only" stop 37 of the 40 shots he saw vs. Montreal Tuesday and that led to a 3-2 loss. Pittsburgh, as per usual, ranks near the top of the league (3rd) in goals per game w/ 3.7. Look for them to take advantage of the Flames' "leaky" defense. 

While this is Pittsburgh's third consecutive road game and second in three nights, they had plenty of time off in between the win in Toronto and win in Edmonton. Calgary is playing for a third time in five days, so they could actually be the side where fatigue is a factor. I'm not concerned about Pittsburgh allowing five goals in that last game as their record when allowing 4+ goals the previous game is 54-24 the L3 seasons. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Virginia Tech (7:30 ET): This is almost always an important game in the ACC Coastal. This year will be no different as Virginia Tech comes in as the only team in the division still w/o a loss. Georgia Tech, on the other hand, is quickly bordering on being irrelevant. They're 1-3 SU in the ACC after losing two weeks ago at home to Duke, a game where I played against them. You'd think that record would have the Yellow Jackets as the more motivated side this week, but that may very well not be the case considering the Hokies are at home and will be looking to exact a case of double revenge (lost L2 yrs to Ga Tech). The Yellow Jackets have actually won each of their last two trips into Blacksburg, as a 7 and 14-pt underdog no less, but this is a Thursday night game at Lane Stadium. Rumors about HC Paul Johnson's future in Atlanta does his team no favors here. 

Virginia Tech's bye probably came at a good time. They'd lost here at home to Notre Dame three weeks ago and were probably lucky to win at North Carolina in their most recent game. They were outgained 522-375 in Chapel Hill, yet were still able to rally from a 13-pt second half deficit to win 22-19. The game-winning TD came w/ just 19 seconds left. Of course, the Hokies may never be able to live down their loss at Old Dominion earlier in the season, but I will point out they handily beat the same Duke team that beat Ga Tech, 31-14 on the road, and were basically dead even in total yardage w/ Notre Dame. Remember the Hokies are playing w/o QB Josh Jackson, so the bye was also handy in that regard as it allowed for backup Ryan Willis to get more practice time. 

Another reason the bye is handy is that it gives the Hokies' defense extra time to prepare for Georgia Tech's vaunted triple option. When I played on Duke against Georgia Tech two weeks ago, I noted that the Blue Devils (who were also off bye) had a decided edge. Sure enough, they held the Yellow Jackets to only 3.75 yards per rush. I think we can all agree that the best move Va Tech HC Justin Fuente ever did was to retain the longtime defensive coordinator of his predecessor, Frank Beamer. That would be Bud Foster, who has presided over a number of top defenses during his time in Blacksburg. This particular Hokies' defense has held four of its six opponents under 20 pts. Georgia Tech has just one win over a Power 5 team this year. It was Louisville, who has pretty much quit on the season, on a short week. Lay the short number. 8* Virginia Tech 

10* Under Blazers/Magic (7:05 ET): Last night may have been the "tipping point" I spoke of in my NBA analysis for yesterday. I had an Under (Pacers/Spurs) and was sure to note how the incredible amount of scoring we'd seen in the early part of the NBA season was eventually due to subside. The result of my Under play might vary for some, but the bottom line is that 8 of the 11 games stayed Under. I'm not saying that to abandon the Over strategy entirely moving forward, but blindly betting Overs is probably already a thing of the past. Tonight, I've found another game I like to stay Under the total. 

Portland is one of those teams that has seen every game go Over thus far. Even after last night's run of Unders, there are still three others (Lakers, Milwaukee, Washington) that have yet to experience an Under. No team has been able to make it to 5 straight Overs to open the year yet. I don't think the Blazers will either as their scoring average of 124.3 PPG is bound to subside and their defensive numbers (117.3 PPG allowed) are bound to improve. Believe it or not, but they've actually held their last two opponents to a field goal percentage below 42%. They only shot 39.8% themselves Monday vs. Washington, which speaks to the number of possessions in that game. Also, when looking at that final score (125-124), note the game went into overtime. Tonight also marks the first time Portland has had to play on the road. Last year, their scoring average did dip some on the road, which is really not a surprise. 

Orlando is a team that hasn't been any good since Dwight Howard left town in 2012. With LeBron James taking his talents to the Western Conference for the first time, the Magic are hoping they can break though this season in a pretty weak Eastern Conference. So far, they are 2-2 SU and hold a shocking 93-90 win in Boston as 11-pt underdogs. That's the kind of final score I'd love to see here tonight, though it may not be realistic. But, Orlando has topped 105 pts in only one of its four games so far, which I'd say is pretty significant. Both meetings w/ the Blazers LY stayed Under w/ neither side scoring 100 points either time. 10* Under Blazers/Magic

8* Sacramento (10:05 ET): Because they find themselves playing in the second night of a back to back, the Kings are better than expected value tonight as they return home to host the Grizzlies. The Kings did lose last night, which was to be expected as they were in Denver. The final score was 126-112 and thus they just missed covering as 12-pt dogs. Now they were down 20+ heading into the fourth quarter, which is pretty shocking considering they ended up shooting 52.3% for the game, including 13 of 31 from three-point range. But I expect them to bounce back at home tonight as a) they're back home, b) the Grizzlies don't deserve to be road favorites and c) a back to back isn't that big of a deal this early in this season. Take the points. 

Memphis had a rough season last year as they lost 60 games. Now they were as banged up as any team in the league and figure to improve this year. They've already started 2-1, including a huge upset of Utah Monday night as 11-pt underdogs. They allowed just 84 points in a shocking defensive performance that saw them hold the Jazz to just 35.4 percent shooting. Still though, the Grizzlies haven't shot the ball particularly well themselves so far (40.2 FG%). They did cover as a seven-point favorite against Memphis last week, but that was at home. As a road favorite, the team was 0-4 SU and ATS last season and it's a role I'm not ready to trust them in just yet. 

Sacramento came into last night's game second in the league in scoring at 125.7 PPG and was the first team to top 100 against Denver so far. So that's at least one positive takeaway from last night. Free throw shooting was definitely not positive as they missed 11 of 20 attempts. That number should definitely go up tonight. The Kings are a dead even 17-17 ATS in the second night of a back to back the L2 seasons, so they're no worse in this situation ATS than they are normally. In fact, there's no difference at all as the team's overall ATS record since the start of 2016-17 is 81-81! No starter played more than 24 minutes last night. The Kings have shot better than 50% from the floor in every game this season and have enough offensive firepower to potentially pull the outright upset. 8* Sacramento

10* Under Pacers/Spurs (8:35 ET): At some point, we will reach a "tipping point" of sorts w/ the scoring explosion that is currently ongoing in the NBA. Perhaps it was last night when the Clippers-Pelicans game (where the total was bet as high as 238.5) stayed comfortably Under w/ a final score of 116-109. That was bad news for me as I chose the Over. While I'll certainly be looking to go Over in many more future games this season, tonight I've found a game where it's likely that that Under will cash. Ironically, it features a team that was a part of my only previous Under bet this season, Indiana. I had the Under in their season opener vs. Memphis, a game where they allowed only 83 points. Tonight they play the Spurs and I expect a (relatively) low-scoring affair. 

San Antonio came into this season with more question marks than any other season in the past 20 years. Many do NOT even consider this a likely playoff team in the Western Conference as the core of the team was gutted in the offseason. They still have Greg Popovich coaching though and have started 2-1. That includes a wild 143-142 win over the Lakers Monday night that went to overtime. The Spurs were actually down six in the final minute of OT before rallying and then getting a gift when LeBron James missed two free throws. Obviously, I'm not looking for anywhere near that kind of offensive performance - from either side - here tonight. Note the Spurs shot just 42.5% from the floor in their first two games. The Under is 10-4 for the Spurs following a 130+ pt effort the previous game. 

Indiana scored only 91 pts in its last game, which was a loss at Minnesota. That was after a 132-point effort against Brooklyn on Saturday. But while the Pacers are averaging 121.5 points in their two home games, they are averaging just 96 in the two road games. The respective shooting percentages are drastically different as well. Both coaches were critical of their team's defense in the last game, so I expect that to be the point of emphasis for tonight. Both meetings last year between these teams were very low-scoring w/ just 191 and 180 total points scored. 10* Under Pacers/Spurs

8* Boston (8:09 ET): With another win tonight, the reality of a 4th Red Sox World Series title win since '04 would be even more likely. I think they'll get it. Not even an additional run and a half was enough last night for Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers, who failed to cash for me on the run line. It was a 5-4 game heading into the home half of the seventh, but Boston piled on three more runs to make it a pretty easy Game 1 victory. This despite a somewhat shaky effort from starter Chris Sale. Boston's homefield advantage is very real as they're now 60-26 at Fenway Park this season. They also have a 17-4 interleague record in 2018, which is nothing new as they're 47-14 vs. the NL since the start of the 2016 season. In five of the last eight games, the offense has scored 7+ runs. 

Much attention will be paid to Red Sox Game 2 starter David Price. He FINALLY picked up a postseason victory, the first of his career, last week in the close out game vs. Houston. It was a dominant performance as Price went six innings w/o allowing a run and gave up only three hits. He had nine strikeouts and zero walks. He'd previously gone 0-9 in 11 career playoff starts (1-10 TSR), but I believe winning that close out game in the LCS was a turning poing for him. Remember that Price had a very good year. He has a 24-9 TSR w/ a 3.68 ERA and 1.157 WHIP. 

Hyun-Jin Ryu goes here for the Dodgers and he's facing a tall task. With the Game 1 victory over Kershaw, Boston is now 15-5 vs. left-handed starters at Fenway Park this year. Like Kershaw, Ryu has never pitched here in Boston before. In fact, Ryu has never faced the Red Sox before in his career. It will be the best lineup he's seen all season, one that averages 5.7 runs per game at home. Ryu struggled his last time out too; allowing five runs in three innings at Milwaukee. That was his worst start in a month, but remember this Red Sox offense was able to score 29 runs in five games against the Astros pitching staff. They're just too much here at home. 8* Boston

10* Winnipeg (7:05 ET): The nation of Canada has infamously gone a quarter century w/o one of its NHL franchises hoisting Lord Stanley's Cup. These two teams are looking to end that long drought. Toronto is among the teams tied atop the Atlantic Division w/ 12 points, though they have lost B2B games. Winnipeg has also won 6 of its 9 games this season, though unlike the Maple Leafs not all the losses came in regulation. They come into Wednesday as the hotter team having won three straight, all here in Manitoba. I'll look for the Jets to keep the win streak going tonight. 

Something is going to have to give tonight as the Jets are 5-0-1 SU here at Bell MTS Place, but the Leafs are 4-0 SU on the road. Those records are anything but phony too. Winnipeg is outscoring its visitors by more than a full goal per game while Toronto is averaging an amazing 5.7 gpg in those four road wins. There's obviously no way the Leafs can maintain that average moving forward. Somewhat of a "cooling off" process has already started to set in as they've totaled just one goal in the last two games, though both of those losses were at home. They were outscored 7-1 by the Penguins and Blues, not a good sign when getting set to face a team that is 14-0-1 its L15 regular season home games, dating back to last season. Since the beginning of last year, the Jets have the best home record in the league. 

Now it looked as if the Jets might lose one here at home Monday as they were down 3-1 in the third period to St. Louis. But they overcame that deficit and won in overtime. While a close call, it was still a far preferable result to what Toronto did against St. Louis. The Leafs did win here last season, by a shocking score of 7-2, but I'm sure the Jets haven't forgotten. I felt Toronto was a little overrated coming into the season while Winnipeg is definitely on my short list of Cup contenders. 10* Winnipeg

8* Run Line LA Dodgers (8:09 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Dodgers at +1.5. Clayton Kershaw getting an additional run and a half to work with, at anything but a totally exorbitant price, is virtually unheard of. So I'll jump on this rare opportunity in Game 1 of the World Series. I've expected the Dodgers to be in this position for some time now. Long ago, I called them the best team in the National League and while it took seven games to dispose of the Brewers, here we are. Boston eliminating Houston, in five games no less, was a tad bit more surprising. What's not surprising is that the Red Sox are making this a battle of lefty aces, sending Chris Sale to the mound. As much as we should fear the Red Sox lineup inside Fenway Park, the Dodgers do benefit from a DH here and Sale's health has become a bit of a concern.

Kershaw has already pitched three times this postseason. He has a 2.50 ERA and 0.833 WHIP and was lights out ttwo wo of the three times. Now the exception did come on the road. That was Game 1 of the NLCS at Milwaukee where he was betrayed by a shocking mistake (HR allowed to a relief pitcher) as well as his defense. But he immediately bounced back by holding the Brewers to one run and three hits (in 7 IP) in Game 5. Perhaps most importantly, he had nine strikeouts. Kershaw's overall resume obviously needs little introduction as he's been one of the top pitchers in baseball for several years now. The Dodgers are 10-1 in his L11 starts w/ that one loss coming by - one run - a result we'd also take in this situation. 

The big news w/ Sale is less about performance and more about health. Over the last week, he's had to battle a stomach illness, which was serious enough to cause an overnight stay at a hospital. There's been some debate over the cause of that illness, but the bottom line is that Sale has thrown only four innings in the last 17 days and just 21 1/3 innings since August 12th. The Dodgers' lineup, which already averages 5.3 rpg on the road, now benefits from the designated hitter. The DH rule will also benefit Kershaw, who doesn't have to worry about hitting. In their last five games at American League parks, the Dodgers went 4-1 and scored eight or more runs three times. They're my call here plus the 1.5 runs. 8* Run Line LA Dodgers (+1.5)

8* Over Clippers/Pelicans (8:05 ET): I'll look for the NBA's scoring explosion to continue Tuesday night w/ one of the teams most responsible for it. New Orleans has scored 131 and 149 points in two blowout wins. As a result, we have the highest posted total yet for any NBA game this season. They are hosting the Clippers, whose own scoring has increased w/ each passing game. They scored a season-high 115 in an upset win over the Rockets Sunday night. That moved them to 2-1 SU, though all three games were played at home. I'm not about to jump in front of this Pelicans' scoring train, so Over is the play.

The Pelicans wasted no time turning heads as they rocked Houston 131-112 in the season opener. That was in Houston, by the way. New Orleans scored 30 or more points in every quarter and was led by Anthony Davis' 32 points and 16 rebounds. Nikola Mirotic added 30 and the team shot 53% overall. It was even more of an offensive onslaught against Sacramento where they scored 149 pts, the highest scoring effort by any team this season. The Pelicans shot almost 59% in that win, including 16 of 31 from three-point range. All five starters were in double figures, led by Mirotic's 36. But lost in that impressive offensive performance was them allowing 129 points. The Clippers will get theirs too here. 

While this O/U line is high, it's not too much higher than previous Pelicans' totals. The numbers closed north of 230 for both previous games. Now for the Clippers, it is high. Their first two games, against Denver and Oklahoma City, saw them hold the opponent below 38 percent shooting. That certainly is unlikely to happen tonight. In those same two games, the Clippers didn't shoot that well either. As discussed earlier, the Pelicans defense has been such that the Clippers will score plenty in this game. Don't be afraid to bet the Over in this one as it should be a wildly exciting contest. 8* Over Clippers/Pelicans

10* Under Troy/South Alabama (8:00 ET): Troy is clearly the better team here, but two things give me pause. One is the performance in their last game. Playing for the 1st time w/o QB Kaleb Barker (out for the year), they lost outright to Liberty and scored only 16 points in doing so. The second is their overall play on the road. While this team did cash for me in an early season upset at Nebraska, they pulled that upset on the back of a key special teams play and Cornhuskers' turnovers. The Trojans' offense, with Barker in at QB, gained only 243 total yards in that contest. The only two subsequent road games were LW's upset loss at Liberty and an eight-point win at LA Monroe. So asking Troy to win by double digits on the road, with a backup QB, seems like a lot. 

South Alabama has only two wins on the season. One came against Texas State, one of the worst teams in all of FBS. The other came last week against a FCS school, Alabama State. That win over Alabama State also marked the first time all season that a South Alabama game stayed Under the total. Playing a FCS program obviously helped as the Jaguars turned in - by far - their best defensive performance of the season, holding their opponent to just 7 points. This is a defense that has already allowed 48 or more points FOUR times this season. But there's a catch. All four times were on the road. The defense has played a little better here in Mobile, holding teams to an average of just 22.7 PPG. That's heavily influenced by last week's result, but the Jaguars get a big break this week in facing a backup QB. 

Last year's "Battle for the Belt" (that's what this rivalry is called) resulted in a huge upset w/ South Alabama winning 19-8 as 16-pt road underdogs. Even I, who had South Alabama, was quite stunned by that result. Keep in mind that the Jaguars were facing a 4-year starting QB in Brandon Silvers and they still held the Troy offense to less than 300 total yards. Now they get to face a backup in Sawyer Smith, who threw for only 135 total yds in the upset loss at Liberty two weeks ago. After the 1st quarter of that game, the Trojans' offense was held to just three field goals and less than 200 total yards. South Alabama's first six games may have all gone Over, but this one has "Under" written all over it. 10* Under Troy/South Alabama

10* Florida (7:05 ET): Two of this year's slowest starters meet Tuesday in MSG w/ the Rangers hosting the Panthers. The Rangers have dropped six of eight to start the season while Florida has only one win in six games. However, when looking at goal differential, one team appears to have a significant advantage in tonight's contest. The Rangers have been outscored by nine goals in eight games while the Panthers have only been outscored by four in six. The Panthers have had some bad luck w/ three losses occurring either in overtime or a shootout. Every one of their games so far has been decided by a one-goal margin. With an interesting goaltending matchup tonight, I believe the Panthers are poised to break through w/ a major victory. 

After finally winning a game on Friday, the Panthers returned home to play the league's last remaining winless team, Detroit. They lost that game, in overtime, 4-3 on Saturday. This despite having a 2-0 lead at the end of the first period and outshooting the Red Wings 37-31. After that embarrassing defeat, I think Florida will come out "ready to go" tonight. It appears that they will be giving Michael Hutchinson the start in goal. While he's struggled in two previous starts, I don't think the Rangers should be much of a concern considering they only rank 26th in goals per game. 

You would think that the Rangers would go w/ Henrik Lundqvist in this spot, but instead it appears as if the less proven Alexandar Georgiev will get the call between the pipes. Important to note that either way, this play still stands. But if the reports of Georgiev starting are true, then I REALLY like our chances. Georgiev's only previous start saw him surrender seven goals. Florida has won three straight times here in MSG and I look for them to keep that streak alive Tuesday night. 10* Florida 

10* Atlanta (8:15 ET): I really don't understand the "love" that the Giants are getting here. The G-Men do benefit from having not played since last Thursday. But they'll need more than that (and more points from the oddsmakers) for Eli Manning and his pop-gun arm to compete w/ the high-flying Falcons in this building. Atlanta has been a disappointment in its own right this year, but they did win big for me last Sunday, beating Tampa Bay 34-29 as three-point chalk (late FG got the cover!). They have scored 31 or more points in every home game thus far, so again, I don't see how a Giants team that has scored 30 or more only ONCE in the L3 seasons is going to be able to keep pace. Despite having been a 'dog in every game this year, the Giants are only 2-4 ATS. The Falcons are 5-2 SU and ATS when laying between 3.5 & 7 pts the L3 seasons. The Giants are 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS as a dog in that same range during the same time frame. 

When considering why the Falcons (2-4 SU) have overachieved to this point, one must consider the multitude of injuries they have been hit with, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. But DT Grady Jarrett is back this week and stopping the Giants' anemic offense (19.5 PPG overall) shouldn't prove difficult. Also, two receivers - Mohammed Sanu and Calvin Ridley - have both been cleared to play tonight. With a full compliment of receivers, look for Falcons QB Matt Ryan to have a big night. The L3 weeks have seen the Giants surrender 33, 33 and 34 points. Again, assuming Atlanta is able to follow suit and hang 30+ points, I just don't see how the Giants can keep pace. 

Saquon Barkley was chosen #2 overall in the Draft by the Giants and there's been a lot of debate about that pick. There is no denying Barkley is going to be a great player in this league. But the problem is Eli Manning is still directing this offense, so even though it's quite loaded at RB/WR, it really doesn't matter. The Giants have topped 18 points in only two games this season. Manning, who has thrown as many INT's as he has touchdown passes the last three games, has been sacked 20 times already this season. Also, when considering Atlanta's deficiencies when it comes to pass rushing, note the Giants are one of only three teams w/ fewer sacks. Look for the Falcons to simply outscore the Giants here. 10* Atlanta

10* Over Knicks/Bucks (8:05 ET): Half of the teams in the NBA have gone Over in all of their games so far. But the Knicks have been an exception to the "rule' w/ two of their three games staying Under. It's not that they have been terribly low-scoring affairs, though they have averaged only 103 PPG in back to back losses to Brooklyn and Boston. On the bright side, they are 3-0 ATS and getting double digits tonight in Milwaukee. But to stay perfect against the spread, they'll need to improve upon their shooting (42.4%) to keep pace w/ a Bucks team that has come firing out of the gates to average 115.5 points in two games. I had the Over in their last game, a 118-101 win over Indiana, and am going to play this one the same way. The Bucks are among the half of the league not have played a single Under so far.

Milwaukee is using the three-pointer to its full advantage under HC Mike Budenholzer and it's paying off. They went 17 of 46 from three-point range against the Pacers, certainly high volume, but it paid off. Last year, the team ranked in the bottom third from behind the arc, so this is most definitely a welcome change. I don't think it's going to subside anytime soon either as Giannis Antetokounmpo was 0 for 7 from behind the arc vs. Indiana and that's unlikely to happen again. Note the Bucks have been fast starters in their two games, scoring more than 60 pts in the first half each time. Friday vs. the Pacers, they scored 30 or more in each of the first three quarters. Speaking of fast starters, the Over is 44-23 in the first half of the season for the Bucks the L2+ seasons. 

The Knicks did score 126 pts in their season opener, a win over the Hawks, so they are capable of putting points on the board. And Milwaukee definitely is susceptible on defense. The Bucks allowed Charlotte to come back from a 20-point deficit in their first game (still won by 1 pt). The Knicks are a little short-handed right now w/o their best player (Kristaps Porzingis) and top draft pick (Kevin Knox), but still look for this team to be better offensively in 2018-19 as they have not only rid themselves of Carmelo Anthony before last season but are now free from the foolishness of Phil Jackson trying to make them play a triangle offense. 10* Over Knicks/Bucks

8* Over Hornets/Raptors (7:35 ET): Half the teams in the NBA have gone Over in all of their games thus far. You can count Toronto among them as the Raptors are 3-0 Over, in addition to also being 3-0 straight up. They've been remarkably consistent in the scoring department, finishing w/ 116, 113 and 117 points the L3 games. And they've done so despite not even really shooting the lights out (46.7 FG%). I was impressed w/ how there was no hangover the night after beating Boston as the Raptors went to Washington and scored a season-high 117 points despite playing w/o Kwahi Leonard (rest). I see no reason why the Raptors won't continue contributing to the league-wide scoring explosion tonight as they're back at home to take on the Hornets. Toronto was 3rd in the league in offensive efficiency last season while averaging 112.5 PPG and that w/o Leonard.

Charlotte has gone Over in two of its three games thus far. Ironically, both Overs finished w/ identical 113-112 final scores, however the Hornets lost one and won one. Their only game to go Under was against Memphis, one of the worst offensive teams in the league (held them to 88 points). The Hornets are off a rare close win (they have the worst record in games decided by 3 pts or less the L2 seasons), beating Miami by one on Saturday night. They are also now 3-0 ATS. Like Toronto, they too are averaging 115 PPG, having scored 112 or more in all three games. And they've done that despite relatively modest shooting (45.1 FG%). The key has been the three-point shot as they are 41.5% from behind the arc so far. They aren't going to be able to sustain that as their 49 three-pointers made through three games is a new NBA record. 

But even as the percentage drops, I expect the sheer number of three-point attempts to keep Charlotte's amount of scoring strong. They attempted 42 three-pointers against the Heat, whom they led by as many as 26 on Saturday night. The Hornets could also stand to improve their FT shooting, which currently stands at only 70%. Meanwhile, this Toronto team is deep as they have seven players in double figures w/o Leonard against Washington. The Over is 8-4 in Raptors' home games the L3 seasons when the total is 220 points or higher. The Over cashed in three of the four Charlotte-Toronto matchups last season and I don't see how this one doesn't follow suit. 8* Over Hornets/Raptors

10* Denver (8:05 ET): Golden State finds itself in the second leg of what insiders know is the toughest road trip in the sport, the Utah-Denver double shot. The Warriors were lucky to beat the Jazz Friday night, 124-123, getting a last second tip-in from Jonas Jerebko. The two-time defending champs are now 0-2 ATS on the year as they also failed to cover against the Westbrook-less Thunder on Opening Night. It's pretty shocking that the Dubs needed a last second tip-in to squeak by the Jazz given that they shot 56.3% for the game. They aren't likely to shoot the ball that well again here and as I stated earlier in the week, this Denver team is for real. Take the points.

The Nuggets are also 2-0 straight up, but unlike Golden St they've covered both games. I took them in the first game as they rallied late to put away the Clippers, 107-98. Last night, they predictably blew out the Suns 119-91 w/ Nikola Jokic's triple double (35-12-11) leading the way. Jokic also didn't miss a single shot, going 11 for 11 from the field. Not all the news was good coming out of the game, however, as Will Barton was lost to a hip injury and could miss extended time. He won't play tonight. But despite that injury and the fact the Nuggets are in the second night of a back to back, I still think the situation favors them. They traditionally own one of the league's best home court advantages (31-10 SU LY) due to the high altitude other teams aren't used to playing at.

Remember - it was a blowout win last night, so the B2B game scenario isn't that bad here for the Nuggets. They led 30-16 after one quarter. Losing Barton could be significant, but thankfully this is one of the league's deeper teams. The Nuggets should also be "up" for playing the Warriors at home. Typically, they have matched up well against the Dubs, even beating them twice outright last year. They are one of only three teams (Spurs & Jazz are the others) to hold at least five regular season victories against Golden State in the Steve Kerr era. A number of the Warriors' top players have struggled in this venue previously. Kevin Durant is a woeful 34% from three-point range in his career here while Klay Thompson has never scored more than 21 pts in a game at the Pepsi Center. I'll take the points, expecting an outright win. 10* Denver

8* Anaheim (8:05 ET): Both teams find themselves in the second game of a back to back, but the situation is far better for the Ducks, who also happen to be the better team. Buffalo won last night, 5-1 in LA, but I am highly skeptical of all the preseason "love" this team got as a potential darkhorse. I still rank them among the weakest teams in the league. Tonight marks the end of a five-game West Coast swing for them. Meanwhile, Anaheim returns home angry off a 3-1 loss in Vegas last night. They're the better team and will assert themselves on home ice. 

The Ducks were outshot by a wide margin last night, 45-18. But one thing you have to like about this team is that they are #2 in the league in goals allowed per game at just 2.1. Just one time this year have they given up more than three goals in a game. That was a 5-3 loss at Dallas and they came back the following night to win 3-2 in St. Louis. Ryan Miller started that game vs. the Blues and stopped 29 of 31 shots. This being another back to back, Miller is likely to get the call to start between the pipes tonight. I'd expect him to be highly motivated facing his former team. So should the rest of the Ducks - and the fans for that matter - as all-time great Paul Kariya will have his number retired. Anaheim is 28-10-6 at the Pond since the start of last season.

Buffalo has yet to play a back to back this season. Doing so for the first time at the end of a long road trip is hardly ideal. Especially w/ the Sabres likely to have to call on the struggling Carter Hutton in goal. They have lost three straight Hutton starts, not only due to scoring just one goal in all three games, but also Hutton has allowed 13 goals on 96 shots (.865 save percentage). Hutton has also typically struggled against the Ducks in his career w/ an .888 save percentage and 3.00 goals against average. I just can't see the lowly Sabres winning on the road in consecutive nights. They are only 11-24 SU w/o rest the L2 seasons and 8-24 SU off a win by 2+ goals. They are 12-31 SU after scoring 4 or more goals their previous game. 8* Anaheim

8* Chicago (1:00 ET): Last week proved it might be a bit premature to start printing those Bears' playoff tickets as they suffered an upset loss at the hands of a Dolphins team sans its starting QB. Sure, Chicago was lucky to even have a chance in OT after Miami's Kenyon Drake fumbled at the goal line. But they did lead the game by double digits in the fourth quarter. The news that Miami would be starting Brock Osweiler in place of the injured Ryan Tannehill came late and I wished I could have got down on the 'Fins as a home dog as the Bears were clearly being overvalued at 3-1 SU and coming off a bye. But this week, they're back in a more customary underdog role. Granted, they have to face the Patriots, but I believe they'll be up to the challenge. 

New England picked up a big win last Sunday night, beating Kansas City 43-40 in an absolute thriller. Once again, reports of Bill Belichick's demise turned out to be greatly exaggerated as since that 1-2 start, the Pats have won three straight while averaging almost 40 points per game. However, key is that all three games were played in Foxboro. This one comes on the road against a team that - unlike the Chiefs - can actually play defense. Remember that the Patriots are 0-2 on the road this year, losing by double digits to both Jacksonville and Detroit. Those were easily their two lowest scoring games of the year as well. 

Obviously, there's a big worry here for the Bears w/ Khalil Mack's ankle limiting him in practice. They'll certainly need him in order to pull any potential upset this week. But Chicago has done just fine as a home dog - even preceding Mack - going 8-2-1 ATS their L11 times in the role w/ five outright wins. I still believe in this team as one that can "win ugly" and get to the playoffs. Winning this week would be a giant step in the right direction. One positive from last week is that QB Mitchell Trubisky averaged 10.2 yards per pass attempt while the running game gained 5.3 yards per carry and that was against a pretty good Dolphins defense. At home, I believe the Bears are capable of pulling the upset. 8* Chicago

10* Miami (1:00 ET): The Dolphins may seem to be "living dangerously," but fact is they're getting the job done. They're now 4-2 following last week's upset of the Bears. Truthfully, with the exception of that bad 38-7 loss to the Patriots, this team has played quite well this season. They didn't even need QB Ryan Tannehill to beat the Bears, though they did need overtime. But led by Brock Osweiler, they outgained Chicago 541-467 and could have put the game away earlier if not for a Kenyon Drake fumble at the goal line. They'll continue to be w/o Tannehill for the forseeable furture, but as we saw last week, Tannehill's value to the pointspread is minimal at best. That's why I'm so surprised to see the Dolphins come in as underdogs at home to the Lions this week.

Detroit is off a bye. Before that, they pulled their own upset, beating Green Bay 31-23. But that game took place at Ford Field and saw the Lions get significantly outgained by the Packers, 521-264. It's very rare that a NFL team wins when getting outgained on a 2:1 basis. The Lions did it thanks to a +3 turnover margin and GB kicker Mason Crosby missing four of five field goal attempts. The Lions are now 4-0 ATS since that MNF disaster vs. the Jets to open the season, including a win over New England, but they've also yet to win a road game. They were beaten at both San Francisco (yikes) and Dallas. Miami is 3-0 SU and ATS at home this year. 

As a home underdog, the Dolphins are on a 7-3-1 ATS run after last week and all seven covers have seen them take the game straight up! Meanwhile, as you might expect, Detroit isn't a road favorite too often. They're just 7-13-1 ATS in the role since 2010 w/ 10 outright losses. I definitely wouldn't want to lay points w/ Matt Patricia's team on the road. The Dolphins should be able to run the ball effectively in this game given that the Lions rank 30th defensively at stopping the run and aren't much better against the pass. Miami WR Albert Wilson is a nightmare to cover, just ask the Bears, who saw him make six catches for 155 yards, two of those going for touchdowns. If the Fins can gain 500+ total yards against a very good Bears defense, then they should have their way here as well. Miami's defense remains underrated. 10* Miami

8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): I've played the Bills before and not only "lived to tell the story," but cashed them as an outright winner over the Titans back in Week 5. So even as they are forced to turn to their third starting QB of the year already (Allen hurt, Peterman terrible), I'm not afraid to take them if I think the situation is right. Anderson won't represent any kind of significant downgrade from either Allen or Peterman, in fact, it might actually be an upgrade even though he just signed w/ the team! This play reminds me a lot of that Bills-Titans matchup in that just like Tennessee, Indianapolis has something in common w/ Buffalo: they've yet to be favored a single time in '18. The Colts are not a team I would want to lay points with, so grab the underdog in this one. 

Since that disastrous Week 1 showing against the Ravens (who have the league's top defense, by the way), the Bills have shown a reasonable level of competency. They've won twice, beating Minnesota and Tennessee, and last week should have finished off the Texans were it not for Peterman rearing his ugly head. The Bills led 13-10 w/ less than two minutes to go in regulation, but then gave up the game-tying field goal w/ 1:34 remaining. No problem though, there's always overtime, right? Well, not in this case. Peterman, only playing because rookie Josh Allen was hurt, threw an atrocious "pick-six" to lose the game on the very next drive. Still though, the Bills easily covered as 10-point road underdogs. I think they can do the same here, thanks to a defense that is 10th in total yards. The Bills have allowed 22 pts or fewer in four straight games. 

The Colts are a bad team, off to their worst start since the dreaded 2011 season that was the bridge between Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. They've lost four in a row and already given up 34 or more points four times this season, including each of the last three weeks. So again, this is not a team I'd want to be laying points with, especially this many. While Luck has been throwing the ball a lot this year, he's been very inefficient doing so, ranking 29th in yards per attempt. He does get WR T.Y. Hilton back this week, but the return of one receiver alone cannot cure all that ails this team. This is the first time the Colts have been favored by seven points or more since 2014. Take the points. 8* Buffalo

10* Tennessee (9:30 AM ET): "Wanna Get Away?" is a tagline for a popular airline company and right about now the Titans would gladly take them up on the offer. The team is off B2B "stinkers" as they lost outright to Buffalo and then were humbled by Baltimore at home. The offense has scored a grand total of 12 points in those two losses and against the Ravens, QB Marcus Mariota was sacked more times (11) than he had completed passes (10). I was highly skeptical of the Titans' 3-1 start, but now that they've lost the two games in a row, I see some value on them as they head across the pond to play the Chargers in London. They'll be going up against a much worse defense than what they've seen so far this season. Take the points in this one. 

The Chargers have handled their business each of the L3 weeks, going 3-0. But they've beaten three bottom-feeders (i.e. last place teams) in San Francisco, Cleveland and Oakland. In fact, it's tough to know exactly where Philip Rivers and company are really at right now as their only other win came against another terrible team (Buffalo), but their two losses came against two of the best teams, the Rams and Chiefs. They've covered the spread in three of their four wins (only failed vs. SF) and did not cover in either loss. My guess is that the pointspread comes into play Saturday morning in Wembley Stadium. The early start time isn't exactly favorable to the West Coast team as kickoff will be at 6:30 AM Pacific time. They are staying in Cleveland this week to practice. 

The Chargers' 38-14 win over the Browns last week was a little misleading in that they got up big early despite not possessing the ball much. They had no problem moving the ball when they had it (449 total yards), but the edge in total yards really didn't become substantial until the end of the game when they were simply running it down the Browns' throats. Consider that Tennessee is 3-3 SU despite being favored only once (at Buffalo) and they have wins over Jacksonville and Philadelphia. Their offense cannot possibly be worse than it was against Baltimore, who probably has the best defense in the league. Off B2B losses, the Titans have gone a perfect 4-0 ATS the L2 years. The Chargers have not been a good opponent for them through the years (1-9 SU, 0-9-1 ATS L10 meetings), but they'll at least cover the spread here. 10* Tennessee 

8* Nevada (12:00 AM ET): We're going really late night for this LAST CHANCE POWER-DRIVE as went head out to the Island. Both these teams went just 3-9 SU last season and have already matched or exceeded that win total here in '18. Nevada was the one supposed to improve, but ironically they're only 3-4 SU while Hawaii is a rather stunning 6-2 SU. The Warriors immediately turned heads in their first game of the season when they upset Colorado State, 43-34, as 17-pt road underdogs. Even though I took the points w/ them in that game, I was stunned at the ease in which they won outright. (Of course, we also didn't know how bad Colorado St was yet). More upsets have followed, but this week the Warriors are favored for the very first time against a team that isn't either from the FCS or in my bottom 10 in of my FBS rankings. I'll take the points.

Nevada is off B2B home losses, but they had to play the two teams that were in LY's Mt. West Championship Game, Boise State and Fresno State. They were double digit dogs to both, so you can't really fault them for losing. In fact, last week saw them go down to the wire against Boise State in an eventual 31-27 loss. The Wolf Pack have only been favored twice all year, so I'm not really faulting them for a 3-4 SU record to this point. Hawaii is a tough place to play if you're the visitor, but Nevada won't be intimidated as they've already played at Vanderbilt, Toledo and Air Force. They turned in a pretty remarkable effort in upsetting the AFA, holding them to just 250 total yards, including just 154 rushing on 51 carries.

Nevada has to win three of its last five games to become bowl eligible. They'll be favored to win two and will be dogs in two others, so this probably represents the "swing game." The road team has actually been favored in the last two Nevada-Hawaii matchups, only to lose outright both times. Last season, the Wolf Pack won 35-21 as three-point dogs in Reno. They rolled up 566 total yds of offense in that game, led by QB Ty Gangi, who missed the Fresno State game but is now back and ready to produce. Hawaii's defense isn't much better than it was last year as they've already given up 40+ pts three times including 49 last week to BYU, not to mention nearly 500 total yards. I look for a minor "upset" late Saturday night. 8* Nevada

8* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): LeBron lost his Lakers' debut Thursday night, falling at Portland, 128-119. I wouldn't be overly concerned with that result, however, considering James also lost his pro debut in Cleveland, his 1st game in Miami and his 1st game back in Cleveland. In the case of the last two stops, his teams immediately bounce back w/ a win. As for James individually, he was his usual efficient self against the Blazers, totaling 26 points, 12 rebounds and six assists. What has the potential for more concern was Houston's woeful performance in their first game. At home, they were blown out 131-112 by the Pelicans and it looks as if they are prepared to take a step back this season. One of these teams is going to be 0-2 SU after tonight and I'll take the points. 

Last year was one of the best seasons in recent Rockets' history as they finished w/ the best record in the league (won 65 games) and took the eventual champion Warriors to a 7th game in the Western Conference Finals. But like most, I have them taking a bit of a step back in 2018-19. For one, I hate the Carmelo Anthony acquisition. No team w/ Melo on the roster has ever been a legit championship contender and this is now his 4th franchise. Last year's team was actually competent defensively, but w/ the losses of Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute in the offseason, that might not be the case again this year. We saw clear signs of defensive regression against the Pelicans, who shot 53.1% from the floor en route to a blowout victory. 

Bad news for Houston is that the Lakers were just 7 of 30 from three-point range against Portland and missed their first 15 attempts. That might actually sound like "good news," but I don't see any way the Lakers aren't better from distance tonight and that's not even factoring in the Rockets' poor defense. While I do think the expectations for the Lakers are a little high this season, this team does have plenty of talent beyond just James. It's a more talented group than he had LY in Cleveland. Meanwhile, I'm concerned that Rockets' HC Mike D'Antoni had to make the excuse "I thought they were tired" in reference to his team's performance vs. New Orleans. It was the 1st game of the season! 8* LA Lakers 

10* LA Dodgers (8:09 ET): It's all come down to this in the NLCS; a winner-take-all Game 7 Saturday night in Milwaukee. The Dodgers failed in their first attempt to close out the Brewers, losing 7-2 last night as they were jumped on early and never recovered. The Brew Crew scored four runs in the first and that was all they needed. But even though this game takes place in Miller Park; I don't see the Dodgers failing twice. All season long, my read has been that they are clearly the top team in the National League. I'm not going to waver now. Over the past two months, there have been only two times that LA has dropped B2B games. I'll call for them to win Game 7 and move on to face Boston in the World Series. 

 The Dodgers will start a rookie in the most important game of their season. But something else I've been saying all year is that rookie, Walker Buehler, is the best #2 in any rotation in baseball. You could even make the argument that Buehler even gave Clayton Kershaw a "run for his money" for who was the best pitcher in the Dodgers' rotation. Buehler had a slightly better ERA (2.67) and WHIP (0.92) than Kershaw. While his numbers did dip on the road, I'm not overly concerned w/ that nor his two shaky performances in this postseason. Buehler will be taken out at the first sign of trouble (if there is one) and speaking of Kershaw, he is available tonight out of the bullpen, which is certainly a nice luxury to have. 

Milwaukee goes w/ Jhoulys Chacin, who has certainly been their best starter in 2018. They also were able to give ace reliever Josh Hader the night off yesterday due to building such an early lead. Chacin beat Buehler in Game 3 out in LA and has not allowed a single run in two postseason starts (10 1/3 IP). But he was actually better on the road than at Miller Park this season. Home teams are actually below .500 all-time in Game 7's (55-56) and I would worry about this Brewers team lack of experience in the situation. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Connecticut (7:00 ET): I know. I know. This is really going to test my reputation as an "underdog bettor." UConn has not been good by any stretch of the imagination. This is a bottom five team in the country, in fact, as the Huskies are 1-5 SU w/ the lone win coming in a game against a FCS school (Rhode Island) where they still gave up 550 total yards. In the five games vs. FBS foes, they have been outscored by 39, 55, 30, 42 and 41 points. That's an average loss of 41.4 PPG! This week finds them playing a team that they've lost to six straight times and is still unbeaten this season. Certainly, this one gets out of hand in a hurry, right? Not so fast! I'm actually taking the points! 

Even after last Saturday's myriad of upsets, there are still eight teams without a loss in College Football. Surprising is that three of them hail from the American Conference, including - pretty clearly - the weakest one, that being USF. The Bulls are UConn's opponent this week and pretty fortunate to still be unbeaten after LW's near failure at Tulsa. I faded USF in that one, calling them the weakest of the unbeatens then too, and they trailed for most of the game. Despite ending up w/ a 487-299 edge in total yardage, the Bulls trailed by two touchdowns entering the fourth quarter. They were still down eight w/ just over two minutes to go, but a TD (missed 2-pt try) and field goal in the closing seconds got them the one-point win they needed to remain unbeaten. 

Last week wasn't the first time it looked like USF might lose this season. Both East Carolina and Georgia Tech outgained them by more than 150 yards. Wins over ECU and Illinois came by a total of just 13 points. Four of the Bulls' six wins this year have been by 11 pts or less and the 49-38 win over Ga Tech actually saw them down 10 in the 4Q. I understand that the pollsters are gonna have this team ranked because of the "0" in the loss column, but not only is USF not counted among my Top 25, they barely crack my top 70! I know the home team has typically dominated this conference rivalry (two very different climates!), but this is a huge number to lay when USF only won 37-20 LY in Storrs as 23-pt chalk. UConn is off a bye here and USF has trailed at the end of the 1st quarter in four of its six games. One of the two they did not was a 7-0 lead over FCS Elon. Hold your nose and take the points! 8* Connecticut

8* Columbus (7:05 ET): The Blackhawks seem to be living off reputation as I think they have even less of a chance to win tonight in Columbus than the oddsmakers do. This is a team that just lost 4-1, at home, to Arizona the other night. That was their third loss in four games and the first time all season that they didn't have to go past regulation. While the Blackhawks had done plenty of scoring this year leading up to the loss to the 'Yotes, they certainly haven't done much else well. They rank 29th (third worst) in goals allowed and special teams play has been dreadful w/ the power play ranking 28th and penalty killing ranking 30th. I like they're in for a long night here. 

Columbus is off an impressive 6-3 win over Philadelphia and has scored five or more goals in each of its last three victories. Prior to beating the Flyers, they'd been embarrassed in an 8-2 loss at Tampa Bay. But they got four days off to recover and played like after somewhat of a slow start. Here, they had only one day off between games, but I don't think that matters considering what a strong team they've been on home ice the past couple seasons. Last year saw them go 26-12-3 during the regular season here at Nationwide Arena. That included a 3-2 win over Chicago. 

The Blackhawks did win their first two games this season, but those games were at Ottawa and St. Louis. They've since lost at Minnesota. Corey Crawford is back between the pipes, which is a nice story. But after missing so much time, it'll be awhile before he's back to being an effective netminder, if that even happens. I really like the price on the Blue Jackets here as the Blackhawks are playing their third road game in four nights and will struggle to stop C-bus from scoring. Chalk up two more points for the home team. 8* Columbus

10* Clemson (3:30 ET): Both of these teams enter in this Week 8 ACC showdown off a bye. Both are also undefeated. However, that's where the similarities end. I've been pretty clear in the past that "not all undefeated records are created equal" and that is most definitely the case here. Clemson, having participated in the College Football Playoff each of the last three years (and winning it all two years ago, is a top three team in the country right now. NC State is only ranked because of the "0" in the loss column as "that's what the pollsters do." I don't even have the Wolfpack ranked in my top 40! Most will see this line as inflated, but I don't think it's nearly high enough. I expect Clemson to absolutely roll Saturday afternoon. Lay the points. 

Something else to consider is that Clemson will absolutely be taking NC State seriously. That's because they've failed to cover the spread against them each of the last two years. In 2016, they needed OT to win 24-17 as 19-pt home favorites. Last year, they trailed at the half in Raleigh (despite a special teams TD) and needed an interception in the end zone on the final play to seal a 38-31 victory. This year, the Wolfpack won't be sneaking up on the Tigers. Dabo Swinney's team seemingly hit its stride right before the bye week as they obliterated Wake Forest 63-3 on the road. Clemson is 16-1 SU hosting ACC teams the past five seasons w/ the only loss coming by a single point. I expect a highly motivated favorite Saturday afternoon in Death Valley. 

NC State is a team I actually though would take a step BACK in '18, so I'm surprised to see that they're still undefeated. Then again, they have been favored in all five games so far. A game where they would NOT have been favored (Week 3 vs. West Virginia) was cancelled due to Hurricane Florence. Not playing that game really hurts their preparation for this, their 1st real test of the season, in my estimation. The Wolfpack do have a NFL QB in Ryan Finley, but little else, and Finley is going to feel the heat all afternoon long from a Clemson defensive front filled w/ NFL caliber talent. Look for the Clemson defense to make NC State one-dimensional on offense and Finley can't come close to beating the Tigers by himself. 10* Clemson

8* Marshall (2:30 ET): Last year, Lane Kiffin's FAU Owls were the darlings of the College Football universe. They ended the year on a 10-game win streak and absolutely plowed through the Conference USA portion of the schedule, winning all eight games by an average of 22.1 PPG. They didn't even trail for a single minute in the last 5 1/2 games! However, under the weight of expectation, the 2018 edition has crumbled some. One of the big reasons why is their dropoff in play away from Boca Raton. The Owls are 0-3 SU/ATS away from home this year, including an outright loss to Middle Tennessee two weeks ago. The other two saw them completely unable to stop either Oklahoma or UCF, giving up over 100 points and 100 total yards.

With FAU struggling some, the door to the C-USA East title is a lot more wide open now than it was a season ago. Marshall figured to be one of the top challengers anyway and getting FAU in Huntington is a big advantage in getting to the division summit. The Thundering Herd's last win came against Old Dominion, who happens to also be the last team FAU played. The Owls are the ones coming off the bye here, but the Herd posted a slightly better margin of victory (22 pts) over ODU than FAU (19 pts) did. Marshall is a surprising 1-2 SU so far at home, so they'll be looking to make a statement here. Under HC Doc Holiday, the Thundering Herd have gone 37-15 straight up. We've already gone over FAU's struggles on the road this season. 

Neither team has been impressive against the pointspread thus far w/ Marshall 2-4 ATS and FAU just 1-5. That's a big change for Kiffin, whose team was one of the top teams in the country against the number last year. In addition to homefield advantage, another edge for Marshall lies on the defensive side of the football where they are giving up just 3.0 yards per carry compared to 4.7 for FAU. That difference is potentially huge when considering the two star running backs in this game, Tyler King for Marshall and Devin Singletary for FAU. Singletary had more hype coming into the year, but King is averaging 1.3 more yards per carry. In my estimation, the better team is getting points here and Marshall has revenge here for a five-point loss last year in Boca Raton where they were -4 in turnovers. 8* Marshall 

10* Toledo (12:00 ET): Before the start of the season, I think that few (if anyone!) woud have expected Buffalo to go into the Glass Bowl and pick up a win, let alone be FAVORED over Toledo. But here we are in October and HC Lance Leipold (who made the jump from D-III power Wisc-Whitewater) has this Bulls team playing awfully well. They're 6-1 and unbeaten in MAC play, holding wins over Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan and Akron. Not to mention, they've also gone on the road and beaten both Temple and Rutgers. It's looking like there's a very good chance that this UB team ends up w/ more wins than either the '08 or '13 editions (8 each) that represent the only two times the program has ever been to a bowl game. 

Toledo, who has been the team to beat in the MAC West the last few seasons, feels like a disappointment right now. The Rockets enter this game 3-3 and are off a disappointing 28-26 loss LW at Eastern Michigan, a team Buffalo beat by a TD (at home, though). That loss saw Toledo battle back from a 28-3 halftime deficit, only to have the potential game-tying two-point conversion denied in the final minute. The Rockets' other two losses were to Miami FL and at Fresno State, games where they came in as double digit underdogs. So while the 2018 season may feel like a disappointment thus far, last week was the only time that the Rockets lost in a situation where they were expected to win. I think that returning to the Glass Bowl is huge as they've scored 63 and 52 pts the L2x here. 

I just can't get over the fact Buffalo is now favored here. It's largely been public money that caused this number to "jump the fence" and that has me jumping in on the other side. Buffalo has never won here at the Glass Bowl where Toledo has lost only twice in three years under HC Jason Candle and one of the losses to Miami FL. Plus, the Bulls have hardly faced the strongest slate of opponents in compiling their 6-1 SU record. They do have the upset over Temple, but that was back in Week 2 when the Owls weren't playing nearly as well as they are now. And they were humbled by the best team they've faced, Army, 42-13. This will be UB's eight straight week playing w/o a bye. Toledo has not been a home dog to a MAC opponent since 2013 vs. a Northern Illinois team that was nationally ranked and had won 22 of its previous 23 games. 10* Toledo 

10* Oklahoma City (10:35 ET): In this PERFECT 4-0 start to the NBA season, both of these teams have treated me well, albeit in different ways. Oklahoma City was my 1st winner of the season as they stayed inside the number against Golden State on Opening Night despite not having Russell Westbrook. Then I played against the Clippers the following night as they hosted Denver and lost 107-98 here at home. I'm sticking with those preferences tonight and taking the Thunder. They have had the Clippers number in recent years, going 6-1 ATS the previous seven meetings, including a season sweep in 2017-18. Plus, as I said in the earlier analysis, I simply don't think much of this Clippers team whose ceiling is probably no higher than 11th in the Western Conference. 

There have been conflicting reports about the status of Westbrook for tonight's game. Initially, he was thought to be rule out, but he's officially listed as questionable. Clippers' HC Doc Rivers claims to have an "inside source" and believes that Westbrook will play. Consider him playing to be an added bonus, one that we don't need. Despite 27 points from Paul George, the Thunder shot only 36.3% from the field Tuesday night, including 10 of 37 from three-point range. They also missed 13 of 37 free throws and were outrebounded, a rarity for them, by the Warriors. I expect all shooting numbers to go up here and for the rebounding to improve as well tonight. 

The Clippers were soundly outrebounded by the Nuggets on Wednesday and one of the reasons I believe it'll be a similar story here vs. OKC is that Thunder are traditionally one of the top rebounding teams in the league. Like the Thunder, the Clippers didn't shoot particularly well in their season opener, but the difference is that they don't really have the horses to project any kind of improvement for tonight. The starting five is barely recognizable from past years and Patrick Beverely was 0 for 8 from the floor against the Nuggets. The team's best scored, Lou Williams, comes off the bench. The Thunder are the better team here, with or without Westbrook, and I'll gladly take the points. 10* Oklahoma City

8* Over Pacers/Bucks (8:35 ET): Both of these teams won their respective season openers, but the margins of victory were much different. Indiana rolled Memphis at home, winning 111-83. I had the Under in that game, which was a double-digit winner despite the Pacers shooting a blistering 56.6% from the field. Those concerned w/ me now looking to go Over w/ them should also consider that they held Memphis, a bad offensive team, to just 29.8% shooting. So while Indiana isn't likely to shoot the ball well as they did two nights ago, they're defensive numbers will almost certainly regress at the same time. So this one boils down to the opponent, Milwaukee, who beat Charlotte 113-112 in their season opener. Take the Over.

While the Bucks won by just one point Wednesday night, things should have been more comfortable considering they led Charlotte by as many as 20 at one point. But 21 turnovers did them no favors and allowed the Hornets to get back in the game. After scoring 93 points through three quarters, Milwaukee scored only 20 in the final 12 minutes. Led by the all-World Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks should do plenty of scoring this year. I have them projected to finish in the top four in the East, behind the obvious three of Boston, Toronto and Philadelphia. Last year's squad averaged 106.5 PPG despite getting little else beyond "The Greek Freak." They were 7th overall in offensive efficiency. 

Tonight is the opening of the Bucks' new arena, the Fiserv Forum, so it should be a strong atmosphere for a team playing under a new HC (Mike Budenholzer) as well. But the Bucks will certainly be tested more here over the course of 48 minutes than they were by Charlotte. It doesn't bode particularly well that they let the Hornets shoot 42 percent from behind the three-point arc. Also, Indiana has a strong bench, one that scored 58 points against Memphis. I look at this matchup and see a lot of points being scored. 8* Over Pacers/Bucks

8* Arizona (8:20 ET): It's certainly not the most marquee Thursday night battle this week as two struggling teams, Denver and Arizona, meet out in the desert. The Broncos are 2-4, but have lost four straight, while the Cardinals are 1-5 SU and last in the league in most offensive categories. Despite their offensive deficiencies, I see some value on the home team here. Home teams usually have the edge in these Thursday night games (well, not the Giants last week) and I'm not sure Denver is a team that should be laying points on the road. The Broncos' two wins this year, both at home, were by a combined four points. Their two road games have seen them lose by a combined 31 points. Take the points here. 

Neither team has had a friendly schedule so far. Arizona lost at Minnesota last week, 27-17, and didn't look impressive at all in doing so. They have yet to gain even 300 total yards in a game this season, which is incredible in today's NFL. Last week's 269 was actually a season-high even though they'd won the previous week at San Francisco. I thought the Cardinals' defense did a decent job pressuring Vikings QB Kirk Cousins, but there were few, if any, other positives. I will say that w/ Josh Rosen as the QB, the team is going to be better offensively than they were w/ Sam Bradford. The Cards' last two home games saw them fight down to the wire, losing to Seattle and Chicago by only a combined five points. They went 0 for 12 on 3rd/4th down last week, which isn't likely to be repeated here. 

Denver fought valiently against the Rams on Sunday, but ultimately went down by a score of 23-20. They had a few games go down to the wire ATS w/ results varying, so last week was the first time the Broncos definitely covered for anybody. Under Vance Joseph, the team has gone 5-15-2 ATS, the worst such record in the league during that time. The biggest problem Joseph has faced is at QB as the franchise has gotten poor play out of the position ever since Peyton Manning retired. Truthfully, Manning wasn't very good his final season, so it's been three years of bad QB play here. Case Keenum isn't looking like the answer as he's tossed at least one INT in every game. The Denver offensive line is thin coming into this game w/ guard Ronald Leary out w/ an ACL. The defense has allowed an incredible 593 yards rushing the last two weeks and gave up over 500 total yds to the Jets in their last road game. 8* Arizona

10* Over Bulls/76ers (8:05 ET): Chicago is one of the last teams to open its season, doing so on Thursday against a Philly team that lost to Boston on Opening Night. The Sixers had yday off to recover from that disappointing defeat and should be ready to go here in a game they'll be heavily favored to win. I certainly expect the Sixers to score more than the 87 points they finished w/ against the Celtics, who are one of the top defensive teams in this league. The Bulls used to be one of the league's premier defensive teams, but not anymore as they finished 28th in efficiency a season ago. I'm on the Over in this one. 

The Sixers shot just 39.1% from the field Tuesday night in Boston. You're not going to win many games on the road shooting that poorly, especially against one of the league's top teams. The overall shooting was bad enough, but the Sixers specifically struggled from three-point range where they missed 21 of 26 attempts. They also didn't help themselves from the FT line, going 14 of 24. I expect across the board improvement tonight from a team that averaged 109.8 points per game last season. In three games vs. the Bulls, they were remarkably consistent, scoring 115, 115 and 116 points. I expect a number in that neighborhood tonight. 

The Bulls won just 27 games last year, their fewest in any season in over a decade. They should improve some in 2018-19, but don't kid yourself; this is NOT a playoff-caliber team. They were not good on either end of the floor last season, ranking bottom three in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Defensively, they figure to be bad again. They allowed 112 PPG on the road last season. Offensively though is where the improvement might come as Zach LaVine (acquired in the Jimmy Butler trade) is healthy and consider Chicago native Jabari Parker to be the X-factor. 10* Over Bulls/76ers

10* Under Red Sox/Astros (8:05 ET): It's tough to believe that Houston won't go down "swinging" here as they look to avoid elimination at home. This team dropping four in a row would be almost unprecedented as it's happened only twice all season. They suffered two five-game losing streaks, one in late July, the other in mid-August. It would be even tougher to imagine their season ending with three consecutive losses at home. Yet, that's the situation they face tonight in Game 5. Coming into this series, I was pretty outspoken that the Astros were the better team here. That looks not to be the case and as a result, I'm "punting" on them here. But Justin Verlander starting at home does give them a good chance to stay alive and I think he'll keep this one low-scoring. 

If you recall, I backed Verlander in Game 1. He allowed just two runs on two hits over six innings in what is the Astros only win of the series. It has been a remarkable year for Velander, who has been one of baseball's best pitchers w/ a 2.56 ERA and 0.901 WHIP. His 9-11 TSR here at home is quite misleading as his numbers at Minute Maid Park are roughly identical to his overall numbers. In fact, his WHIP (0.831) is even lower here. The Astros have won the last seven times Verlander has started w/ him allowing just eight runs in 44 1/3 innings. He has a 1.62 ERA and 0.699 WHIP during that time. If he can keep his team in front here, it would be nice as we could avoid having to play the bottom of the ninth, which is always nice when holding an Under ticket. 

The key here will be David Price, Boston's starter who has still NEVER won a postseason start in his career. That's astounding. He is 0-9 in 11 career playoff starts, though the Red Sox did rally to win Game 2 when he was on the mound, the first time Price's team ever won w/ him on the mound in the postseason. Price has simply not been very good of late w/ a 7.94 ERA and 2.028 WHIP his L3 starts overall. But I think he's poised to surprise tonight. Houston doesn't average as many runs per game at home as they do on the road. At the same time, Boston also scores fewer runs per game on the road than the do at home. I know every game in this series has gone Over, but that changes after tonight. 10* Under Red Sox/Astros

10* Puck Line Tampa Bay (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a Puck Line play only where I am taking the Lightning at -1.5. Detroit remains the lone winless team in the league with four of the six losses coming in regulation. Their -16 goal differential is easily a league worst and unfortunately for them the task gets no easier tonight as they're in Tampa Bay. The Lightning have absolutely owned the Red Wings in recent years, taking all nine meetings since the start of the 2015-16 season. As you can tell from the money line, this is a total mismatch and thus I have no problem calling for Tampa Bay to win this one by multiple goals. They've also played only four games to Detroit's six. 

Furthermore, the schedule has set up nicely for the Lightning in the early part of the season. Not only have they only played four times so far (tied for fewest number of games played), but they have yet to leave home ice! They did suffer a rather shocking 4-1 loss to Vancouver back on 10.11, but that came after a long layoff. Here, we find them two days removed from a 4-2 win over Carolina. That was led by a Tyler Johnson hat trick, one of his goals coming short-handed. The Lightning have quite the PK unit thus far, having killed off all 18 opposing power plays! What's really scary about this team is that it's off to fast start despite minimal contributions from both Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov. Just imagine when those two superstars get going. 

Meanwhile, there are few positives to talk about w/ this Detroit club, which has been trending downward for a couple seasons. This season could very well be rock bottom as they've been outscored 30-14 in six games. Tonght will be their third consecutive road game after losses at Boston (8-2) and Montreal (7-3). As nice as the Lightning's early-season schedule has been, the Red Wings' has been equally as difficult. They've only gotten to play twice at home and this will be the 5th road game in 11 days. I have no idea how they're going to stop the high-scoring Lightning as goalies Jimmy Howard and Jonathan Bernier have combined for a woeful .850 save percentage. Tampa Bay's save percentage (.937) is at the top of the league w/ likely starter Andrei Vasilevskiy having stopped 96 of the 101 shots he's faced thus far. The Lightning win big here. 10* Puck Line Tampa Bay (-1.5)

10* Denver (10:35 ET): I don't think the Clippers are going to be very good this year while Denver projects to be a top 4-5 team in the West. Therefore, even in LA, this looks like a good value play on the Nuggets. The preseason, as meaningless as it is to some, showed me that the Nuggets are going to score plenty of points this year. In particular, a much-hyped game vs. the Lakers saw them score 124. After missing the playoffs five straight years (came very close L2 years), this team should win 50 games this year. 

The Clippers are a team trending in the opposite direction. Last year was their first time NOT making the playoffs since 2010-11. They traded away Blake Griffin. They were not healthy, which hopefully won't be the case this year, but players like Patrick Beverley and Danilo Gallinari are injury-prone. Their most reliable scorer, Lou Williams, is best served as a 6th man. Doc Rivers' starting five is now Tobias Harris, Gallinari, Beverley, Marcian Gortat and Avery Bradley. Hardly inspiring. At some point this year, HC Doc Rivers is going to focus on developing younger talent.

The Nuggets are loaded w/ scoring options: Nikola Jokic, Paul Milsap, Will Barton, Jamal Murray and Gary Harris may not be "household names," but trust me when I say that this team is going to put plenty of points on the board. This actually could be the deepest team in the entire league. Milsap being healthy will be key. Missing out on the playoffs because of a loss in the regular season finale still sticks w/ this team. They'll come out strong this year. 10* Denver 

10* Houston (8:39 ET): After "stealing" Game 1 at Fenway Park, the Astros now find themselves trailing in the ALCS, two games to one. They went down at home last night, 8-2, as the Red Sox poured it on late including a Jackie Bradley Jr grand slam. This is now the first time since the start of September that the Astros find themselves off B2B losses. They have not lost three in a row since a swoon in mid-August and there have only been six losing streaks of three or more games all season. I still believe the Astros are the better team here and will ride them in Game 4. 

Tonight is an interesting starting pitching matchup. Charlie Morton makes his first postseason start for Houston. This will be his first time pitching in two weeks and he's thrown all of four innings in the last month. Morton did go 15-3 in 30 starts in the regular season and finished strong w/ a 0.60 WHIP his L3 starts. He faced Boston twice in the regular season, going 1-1. Ironically, the bad start was here at home, but that doesn't concern me. Even if it ends up being a short night, remember the Astros bullpen lead the league in ERA. I don't think Morton is going to allow much damage here. 

Boston goes w/ Rick Porcello, who was originally going to start Game 3, but had to be pushed back due to working Game 2 in a relief role. Like Morton, Porcello hasn't exactly thrown a lot of innings over the last month. The Boston bullpen has been very good in this series, but I see Porcello giving up some runs before they are able to "go there." Houston was 1 for 8 w/ RISP last night and I can't see that happening again. I think Porcello bouncing back and forth between being a reliever and starter may have an adverse effect on him and look for the Astros, who are "too good" to drop B2B games at home, to take advantage. 10* Houston

8* Under Grizzlies/Pacers (7:05 ET): Memphis was not a good team last year. They lost 60 games and were outscored by 6.2 PPG. Now they weren't very healthy and that played a role in their significant decline. With upgrades at the wing and at the defensive end, I expect the Grizz to win more games this year. I don't think they'll make the playoffs in a loaded Western Conference, mind you, but an increase of 10 or so wins seems reasonable. Their problem lies at the offensive end.

Indiana won 48 games LY and was the #5 seed in the Eastern Conference. Most project them to be in the top five in the Eastern Conference again this year, but I say don't be surprised if they win fewer games. That's because they were an extraordinarily fortunate 11-2 SU in games decided by three points or less last season (3-0 in overtime). That won't be repeated and the Pacers are largely bringing the same roster back. I believe regression is inevitable, even in a weak Eastern Conference. 

For this season opener, I expect a relatively low-scoring game. Memphis was one of only two teams in the entire league NOT to average 100 PPG last year (Sacramento was the other). The Grizzlies do have Mike Conley back at PG, which is the most important "addition" from last year, but the new pieces - such as Summer League star Jaren Jackson Jr - will take time to gel. Both times these teams played last season, the game went Over. But those two games saw excellent shooting that won't be repeated here. The total is also higher than either of LY's matchups. 8* Under Grizzlies/Pacers 

10* Oklahoma City (10:35 ET): There was a time when a spread like this would have been eye-popping, but any time the Warriors are at home, they're going to be laying a lot of points. The two-time defending NBA Champs (also won 3 of last 4 titles) again come into the year as the prohibitive favorite to repeat. There's such an embarrassment of riches with this time that it almost feels like the regular season is a complete waste of their time. Of course, that mentality can also lead to a number of "play against" situations. Like tonight as they host Kevin Durant's former team, the Thunder. 

OKC has thankfully rid itself of Carmelo Anthony, which is addition by subtraction from where I sit. Melo is now Houston's problem and this should help the Thunder in the Western Conference pecking order. Anthony was never a fit here as he needed the ball too much on a team that already had Russell Westbrook. With Westbrook and Paul George, this remains no worse than a top five team in the West in my estimation. It's a lot of points to be taking for the 1st game of the season. Remember that the Thunder beat the Dubs twice last year and lost another time by only four. 

Now the big story here is that Westbrook may not play as he's still recovering from offseason knee surgery. But even if the Thunder have to go w/o him, I believe they can hang against Golden State. If he does play, obviously that's just a bonus. Golden State has a bit of a new look for this season w/ Damian Jones starting at center. Obviously, there's no question marks w/ the other four starters, but newly acquired DeMarcus Cousins won't be suiting up until December at the earliest. The Warriors are weak on the interior and OKC has long been one of the better rebounding teams. I look for the Thunder to rebound from LY's poor 36-50-2 ATS mark. 10* Oklahoma City 

6* Vegas (10:05 ET): There weren't many better stories in all sports last year than what happened in Vegas with the expansion Golden Knights, who rode an incredible home record right into the Stanley Cup Finals. No one saw that coming and predictably everyone is predicting the Knights to take a bit of a fall in their second season of existence. So far, those people been correct as the team has started 2-4. But they've played only one home game. While it was a loss (5-2 to Philadelphia in the season opener), I expect a much different result tonight hosting Buffalo. 

While Vegas has played almost all road games, it's been just the opposite for Buffalo, who started the year with four straight home games. They split the quartet, but the one to focus on here was a 4-2 win over Vegas. That makes this an early season revenge game for the Golden Knights, who actually outshot the Sabres pretty dramatically on October 8th. It was a 37-17 edge, so the 4-2 loss is surprising. Buffalo had also been outshot in all three periods of their previous win. "We weren't mentally sharp," Golden Knights coach Gerard Gallant said of the loss. "There were mental lapses in the D-zone and a guy left wide open. You couldn't blame (goalie) Fleury on any of the goals."

Buffalo opened this road trip w/ a 3-0 win over Arizona, yet another game where they were outshot pretty dramatically (36-23). They were also off a win the last time they met Vegas, but are still just 8-23 SU the L3 seasons when off a win by 2+ goals. Obviously, this game taking place in "Sin City" and not upstate New York is pretty significant. The Golden Knights were 29-10-2 SU at home last year. They need to turn it around offensively as they come into tonight ranked 29th in goals per game. But they averaged 3.5 gpg at home last year, so that turnaround should come here against a Buffalo team that is giving up a lot of shots in the early going this season (34.6 per game). 6* Vegas 

10* LA Dodgers (9:09 ET): Well, the Dodgers are down 2-1 in the NLCS after being shut out at home last night, 4-0. Save for the ninth inning, they never really threatened as Jhoulys Chacin and four Milwaukee relievers combined to hold them to just five hits. It's the definition of a "must-win" scenario here in Game 4 for Dodger Blue and while the Brew Crew have won 13 of their last 14 games, I think the home team can do it. I can't see their offense getting shutdown in B2B games at home and the starting pitching matchup is more heavily tilted in their favor for Game 4 than it was in Game 3. 

Rich Hill starts tonight for the Dodgers. While the top of Milwaukee's lineup has given him some trouble through the years, Hill still posted a 1.50 ERA in two starts against them in the regular season. Both starts saw him last six innings and give up just one run. I'm banking on something similar tonight. Hill started the close out game in the LDS vs. Atlanta and while he was kind of shaky there (five walks), he did allow only two runs on four hits. The team has won each of the last six times Hill has started, often in lopsided fashion (outscored the opposition 65-18!) and he has a 1.47 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in the last three. He should be comfortable pitching at home. 

For the second time in four games, Gio Gonzalez gets the start for the Brewers. This illustrates just how thin their rotation really is. Gonzalez didn't last long in Game 1, going just two innings. The bullpen bailed him out in an eventual 6-5 win, but I don't see history repeating itself. Manny Machado crushed a home run off Gonzalez in Game 1, so that matchup is something to keep an eye on here. Gonzalez figures not to last long again tonight, but this time it could be more performance based than by design. His TSR on the road this year is just 5-11 w/ a 4.82 ERA and 1.414 WHIP. I look for the Dodgers to even this series up at two games apiece. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Houston (5:09 ET): It appeared as if the Astros were destined to go up 2-0 in this best of seven ALCS when they took a 4-2 lead in the top of the third inning Sunday night. But it was not to be as the Red Sox quickly answered w/ three of their own and their bullpen was able to render Houston's starting pitching edge null and void. But my read on this series still hasn't changed as I view the Astros as the superior team here. They did their job in earning a split in the two games in Boston and now I believe they'll really start to assert their superiority here at Minute Maid Park. Remember that Sunday was the Astros first loss this postseason.

Dallas Keuchel will get the start for the Astros in Game 3. It says something about their rotation (hint: it's really good!) when he's your #3 starter. Keuchel started the clincher in the ALDS at Cleveland and allowed just two runs in five innings. He has always pitched better at home than on the road. This year, the split was not quite as pronounced, but I still certainly trust him in this spot more than I do Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi. Keuchel's one regular season start against Boston did not go so well, but it was in Boston. Since the start of July, the Astros are 12-6 in Keuchel starts. Not only is he working on extended rest here (4-0 TSR on 7+ days rest, btw), but the team is 10-1 off a loss since mid-August. 

The Red Sox rotation appears to be in a state of flux right now. Eovaldi only gets the call for Game 3 because Rick Porcello was used in relief Sunday. Ace Chris Sale has reportedly fallen ill and there couldn't be a worse time for that. David Price is a broken man in the playoffs. So a lot is resting on the arm of Eovaldi here. He was 6-7 w/ a 3.81 ERA in the regular season. He did pitch Game 3 of the LDS vs. the Yankees and was supported in an incredible way (Red Sox won 16-1!). Don't expect that to happen here though. What you can look for, however, is more lefties in AJ Hinch's lineup against the righty Eovaldi, who did not face Houston in the regular season. The Red Sox are just 2-5 in Eovaldi's last seven starts against teams w/ winning records. 8* Houston

10* Under 49ers/Packers (8:15 ET): Both of these teams certainly played well enough to win last week, but neither did. San Francisco outgained Arizona 447-220, but lost 28-18 thanks to a -5 turnover margin. It was a similar story for Green Bay, who was +257 in total yardage (521-264), but lost to Detroit 31-23 due to a combination of a -3 turnover margin and kicker Mason Crosby going an unconscionable 1 for 5 on field goal attempts. So both teams definitely left plenty of points "on the field." That sounds like a reason to possibly lean Over the next time out, but I don't see either team moving the ball as effectively Monday night. Both defenses surprisingly rank in the top 10 in efficiency.  I'm on the Under. 

Green Bay is just 2-2-1 SU and the big story for them has been Aaron Rodgers' knee. Now Rodgers' knee didn't really seem to be bothering him last week as the Packers offense didn't punt a single time on their 11 possessions. But the former MVP did fumble twice for just the third time in his 14-year career. Protection has been an issue w/ Rodgers getting sacked 16 times and maybe that can be pinned on the knee injury. Yet another issue has been injuries at the receiver position. Both Geronimo Allen and Randall Cobb are listed as questionable and w/ the bye week looming, one has to wonder if it would be the "right move" to hold them out. The Packers have not scored 30 pts in a game this season and average just 23.0 PPG, 18th overall. 

San Francisco (1-4) doesn't want to hear about injuries right now as few teams have been hit harder than them in that department. QB Jimmy Garoppolo has been lost for the season, leaving the uninspiring CJ Beathard at the helm. The Niners have done a surprising amount of scoring w/ Beathard starting, but look for that to subside. Eight offensive players missed practice time this week, a group that includes three starting linemen, three receivers a tight end and a running back. So it could be a real "skeleton crew" lining up at Lambeau Field Monday night. I don't look for much from the Niners this week and this simply isn't the same Packers' offense as we've been accustomed to seeing through the years. 10* Under 49ers/Packers 

8* LA Dodgers (7:35 ET): Dodger Blue has been my choice in this series and I'll stay consistent as things shift to Chavez Ravine for Game 3. Milwaukee chose to wait until now to unveil their top starter Jhoulys Chacin, which ideally gives them a better shot on the road. However, the reality of the matter is that Chacin is not better than any of the Dodgers' top three starters. After Clayton Kershaw shockingly imploded in Game 1, Hyun-Jin Ryu was "good enough" in Game 2 by holding the Brewers to just two runs in 4 1/3 IP. Back at home, I expect LA's significant edge in starting pitching to be on full display w/ Walker Buehler tonight and I'll go w/ them here. 

I've said it before & will reiterate it again here: Buehler may be the best #2 starter in any rotation in all of baseball. The rookie turned in a ridiculous year as he has a 2.55 ERA and 0.927 WHIP in 24 starts. Pay no mind to the fact he gave up five runs in his LDS start vs. Atlanta as that was on the road and he was victimized by a grand slam. Here at home, Buehler has a 1.34 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. Remember the Dodgers didn't allow ANY runs in their two home games in the LDS. That's pretty par for the course as they were #1 in the NL in run suppression at home during the regular season. They give up just 3.5 runs per game here. Buehler held the Brewers to one run on five hits (7 IP) the lone time he faced them this year. 

Chacin has pretty good numbers, but he typically doesn't go very deep into starts and he isn't overpowering as evident by a low strikeout total. Chacin hasn't gone a full six innings since the end of August nor has he had more than five strikeouts in a start since then. I don't see him getting much run support here. I know Milwaukee had won 12 in a row before the Game 2 loss, but there's like some "give back" now that the streak is over. Also, this is technically a "day game," a situation the Dodgers are 29-18 in this year while the Brew Crew is just 31-32. 8* LA Dodgers

8* Dallas (7:35 ET): Ottawa pulled an upset Saturday afternoon, beating the Kings here at home by a score of 5-1. That certainly surprised me as I had the Kings. It was also a departure from recent Senators performances which had seen them give up 13 goals in the previous two games. I don't see them pulling two upsets in a row as they're still being outshot rather significantly, by an average of 38.4 to 27.4 per game. The Sens still are a bottom of the barrell team to me. 

Dallas has started its season 3-1 w/ all four games coming at home. They've scored 14 goals in the L3 games alone, so look for them to find the back of the net early and often tonight. They are averaging 36.2 shots per game, so they should have plenty of opportunities. Though it's a non-conference game, the Stars should be highly motivated as they are coming in w/ substantial revenge. They have lost all four times they've played Ottawa the past two years.

Ottawa is a young team with a lot of fresh faces. While they certainly played well against the Kings on Saturday, such a performance will not be the norm this season. Goaltending also looks like it will be an issue. That's not a good thing when facing a team like the Stars, who scored four times in a six-minute span against Anaheim on Saturday. They outshot the Ducks 30-4 in the second period! Dallas also has the league's top power play, which is converting a ridiculous 54.5% of the time. 8* Dallas

10* Houston (7:09 ET): Remember what I said about the Astros being the superior team in this series? Well, cashing them as my *10* Game of the Week in the ALCS opener only emboldened that stance and I'm coming back w/ them again here in Game 2 as the starting pitching matchup is really lopsided in their favor. Boston is in some serious trouble having lost Chris Sale's start. I know the Red Sox deserve respect in Fenway, but I am shocked by the money line for this matchup. 

If you recall, I went against David Price in his ALDS start vs. the Yankees. I did so for good reason. His postseason resume is beyond atrocious at this point as he has zero wins in nine career tries w/ a 6.03 ERA. This is after getting only four outs against the Yankees and allowing three runs. Now the Yanks really seemed to have Price's number this year, but it's not like the Astros should be any kind of favorable matchup. This is the best team in baseball and the defending World Series Champs who average a healthy 5.4 runs per game on the road. Price faced the Astros twice in the regular season and had a 1-1 TSR. He pitched pretty good in both starts, but I look for this spot to be "too big" for him yet again. 

Hopefully not lost in the 7-2 Game 1 loss is the fact Boston had only three hits. This is supposedly the best offensive team in baseball, particularly when playing in their home park. The Red Sox had just three total bases in the game as they had no answer for Justin Verlander outside of the fifth inning. The Astros have the luxury of having multiple "aces" in their rotation and Gerrit Cole will start Game 2. Cole completely shut down Cleveland in the LDS, giving up only one run on three hits in 7 IP and exiting w/ 12 K's. He has a 25-8 TSR and the team is a perfect 7-0 his L7 starts. Don't forget that the Astros were a better team on the ROAD during the regular season. They've scored 18 runs in two playoff road games so far and I see them taking a commanding 2-0 lead in this series. 10* Houston 

8* Dallas (4:25 ET): Cowboys HC Jason Garrett was the opposite of aggressive in last week's OT loss to Houston and it cost his team the game. Now truthfully, the Cowboys should have felt fortunate to even force that game into OT as they were outgained 462-292 and there were two Texans drives that reached the goal line and ended up combining for only three points. But this Dallas team can play defense as is evident by the fact they are allowing just 19.2 points (5th) and 337.4 yards (8th) per game. They are also back in Jerry World where they're 2-0 this season, beating the Giants and Lions. The task is certainly tougher this week w/ the Jaguars coming to the Metroplex, but I believe America's Team is more than capable of pulling the outright upset. Take the points.

Jacksonville has been very "up and down" thus far w/ a win over New England, but also an ugly 9-6 loss to Tennessee. Last week saw them get badly outclassed in an AFC showdown w/ the Chiefs, losing 30-14. They did gain over 500 total yds of offense, but they also turned the ball over five times. Blake Bortles and company are actually off B2B 500+ yd efforts, but I wouldn't look for that streak to continue here as they are w/o RB Leonard Fournette against a quality defense. Remember that the Chiefs, as good as they are, have one of the worst defenses in the league right now. I still don't put a ton of trust in Bortles to carry his team to victory on the road. The Jags are just 3-6 SU and ATS the L3 seasons against the NFC as well and that includes a win over the sorry Giants back in Week 1. 

My one area of concern here is that Dallas won't be able to pass the ball at all. We knew it would be a struggle for them to effectively throw the ball coming into the year (worst WR corps in league?) and it has been as they rank 29th. Jacksonville is #1 against the pass, so look for plenty of Ezekiel Elliott in this matchup. The Jaguars have improved significantly against the run this year, but stopping Elliott will be a tough chore. The Jacksonville offense is also going to struggle to move the ball I think. They've topped 20 pts in only two of their five games to begin with and they haven't exactly faced the toughest slate of defenses. In a game that figures to feature little scoring, taking the points is the way to go. 8* Dallas 

10* Atlanta (1:00 ET): The Falcons have been one of the biggest disappointments so far as they're 1-4 and off an embarrassing 41-17 loss to the Steelers. The defense has been nothing short of abysmal the L3 weeks, giving up 43, 37 and 41 points. I hate to admit it now, but I had Atlanta winning the NFC South before the start of the season. Now, they'll be lucky to even finish .500. Despite that, the team hasn't actually played as poorly as it seems. Consider this stat. Since 1940, teams scoring 36+ pts at home w/ zero turnovers are 402-4 SU. Atlanta has accounted for two of those four losses THIS SEASON! Last week's game against the Steelers didn't see them outgained significantly and it was actually a 10-pt game into the 4th quarter. I don't see the Falcons losing at home again this week, so I'll lay the points.

Tampa Bay is off a bye this week, but has its own issues going on. I think that this team is still getting "residual credit" for its 2-0 start when they shockingly upset both the Saints and Eagles. Ryan Fitzpatrick led the way in those two wins, becoming the first QB in league HISTORY to throw for 400+ yards and 4 TD's in each of the first two games. But "Fitzmagic" quickly ran out of tricks and is no longer even the team's starter. The last two games saw him toss four interceptions and he was finally benched in an embarrassing 48-10 loss to Chicago two weeks ago (I was on the Bears!). There was actually some controversy heading into that game as Jameis Winston was eligible to play after being suspended the first three games. Fitzpatrick's poor play made the switch back to Winston an easy one for HC Dirk Koetter.

Again, I still believe the Bucs are getting too much credit for that 2-0 start. They have given up 78 points in the last two games and I believe the Falcons are going to score a ton in this game. Tampa Bay is second worst in yards per game allowed and even w/ the bye half of the league has still allowed fewer total yards! Offense has certainly NOT been the problem for Atlanta as they are averaging nearly 400 YPG and now have RB Devonta Freeman back in the fold. Something else contributing to unfounded optimism for the Bucs is Winston making his first start of the season off the bye. Yes, it was the ideal spot to make the change, but the Bucs simply aren't going to be a demonstrably better team w/ Winston in there as opposed to Fitzpatrick.  10* Atlanta 

10* Washington (1:00 ET): The Redskins turned in an absolutely dreadful performance Monday night in New Orleans, losing 43-19. Being that the loss is still so fresh in people's minds, I expect them to be a fairly unpopular choice this week vs. Carolina. But I love the spot for them to bounce back. If they're not motivated after being humiliated on national television, then I don't know what to think. It helps being at home. The last time the 'Skins played at home, I took them and they upset Green Bay 31-17 in what is probably their most impressive performance to date. The defense was shredded by Drew Brees and company Monday night, but had given up an average of just 14.7 PPG the first three weeks. On offense, QB Alex Smith is much better than he looked on MNF. 

Carolina is 3-1, but I'm not convinced this is a good team. Then again, I didn't think last year's edition was nearly as good as its 11-5 SU record due to being a very fortunate 7-2 in one-score games (best win percentage in the league). The Panthers pulled another rabbit out of their collective hat last week, beating the Giants 33-31 on a Graham Gano 63-yard field goal as time expired. Carolina was outgained in the contest, 432-350, and is actually being slightly outgained for the year. Not only on a yards per game basis, but on a yards per play basis as well. The defense is giving up a frightening 6.7 yards per play to this point, which is bottom five in the league. Note that they were +4 in turnovers vs. Cincinnati the week before the bye. All three Panthers victories have come at home.

Washington may be averaging 5.2 less PPG compared to Carolina, but the teams are roughly even when it comes down to yards gained. The Redskins have actually outgained the opposition this season (by about 38 YPG) and are close to the top 10 in yards per play allowed. My read is that this is one of those games where the better team isn't getting nearly enough credit and in this particular instance that team is Washington. It can sometimes be a dangerous line of thinking, but I simply don't see Carolina as a 4-1 team. I had them regressing pretty considerably here in 2018 and am not yet ready to come off that assertion. Great value here on the Redskins at home. 10* Washington

10* Houston (8:05 ET): Like in the National League, I've been pretty adamant all year about one team being the best in the American League. The gap may not be as wide here as it is in the final Senior Circuit pairing, but nevertheless I prefer the Astros solidly over the Red Sox in the ALCS. That doesn't mean I won't play on Boston if the spot dictates such a move, or if something significant happens between now and the end of the series. But the fact is that the defending World Series Champs w/ their best pitcher on the hill are a great value here in Game 1. This will only be the 11th time all season that Houston checks in as an underdog on the money line.

The difference between the Astros and Indians was greatly underestimated by some (me included). The 'Stros greatly outclassed Cleveland in every department, starting with the starting pitching. Justin Verlander easily outdueled Corey Kluber in Game 1 of that series and didn't even have his best stuff. I made the mistake of taking Kluber +1.5 in that game w/ part of the reason being that Verlander's TSR at Minute Maid Park was only 8-11. Well, on the road it's 13-2. No matter where Verlander has pitched this season, he has been downright filthy w/ a 2.54 ERA and 0.898 WHIP. The team has gone 6-1 in his last seven starts w/ Verlander posting a 1.86 ERA and 0.710 WHIP. He faced the Red Sox once in the regular season, back in June, not factoring into a 5-4 loss. But it was a quality start w/ him allowing only two runs and three hits in six innings. 

Chris Sale is a more worthy adversary for Verlander than was Kluber and is backed by a better team to boot. However, whatever worries there are about Boston averaging 5.7 rpg here at Fenway should be mitigated by the fact Houston averages 5.3 rpg on the road. Sale, like Verlander, opened the LDS for his team. He had a similar line w/ two runs allowed in 5 2/3 IP, but gave up five hits to Verlander's two. Remember that the last time Sale went six innings in a start was late July as he was absent almost all of August and used sparingly in September. Sale allowed four runs in his only regular season start vs. Houston, which was a 7-3 loss opposite Gerrit Cole. Houston has the better bullpen in this series. I know the difference between the two teams' regular season run differentials (Houston +263, Boston +229) isn't enough to offset the homefield advantage, but I still like the Astros. 10* Houston

analysis soon

8* Iowa State (7:00 ET): There are still 11 unbeaten teams left in College Football. Some - like NC State and Colorado - are clear "pretenders" while you also have three teams (UCF, USF and Cincinnati) hailing from the American. Five of the 11 have clearly separated themselves as National Title contenders, those being Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson and Notre Dame. Then you have West Virginia, who feels like an island unto itself. The Mountaineers really haven't beaten anyone of note, save for Texas Tech a couple weeks ago in what was their only "true" road game to this point. This week looks to be WVU's toughest test to date as they play an Iowa State team fresh off a 48-42 upset of Oklahoma State in Stillwater. I'm taking the points w/ the home dog yet again.

This will actually be the third consecutive week I'm playing against West Virginia as I don't view them as a true national title contender. That's not the only reason I'm looking to fade them again, mind you. It's also the fact that they're unbeaten status pretty clearly has them overrated by the pollsters and the oddsmakers. They did get me two weeks ago in Lubbock, beating Texas Tech 42-34, but that was a pretty even game where the Mountaineers clearly benefited from not only a +3 turnover margin, but also the Red Raiders losing their QB due to injury. Last week, I got some revenge by taking a big number w/ Kansas. At no point in the game was WVU covering as they turned in over four times and won only 38-22 as a four touchdown choice.

Iowa State is only 2-3 SU, but they've played a pretty difficult schedule. Already they've taken on Iowa, Oklahoma, TCU and Oklahoma State. So their Big 12 schedule has been very much the reverse of WVU's in that it's frontloaded. (WVU plays its toughest games in November). Led by freshman QB Brock Purdy (making his 1st start!), the Cyclones put up season-highs in both yards and points LW vs. Oklahoma State. Purdy is a dual-threat and accounted for 402 total yds w/ 318 passing and 84 rushing and RB David Montgomery could be back for this game. Even if he's not, ISU is 9-2 ATS the L11 times it has been a dog w/ five outright upsets. This is a triple revenge spot as well following a four-point loss LY in Morgantown. Iowa State is a great value here. 8* Iowa State

8* Penn State (3:30 ET): I think most people look at this number and think about Mark Dantonio's 13-3 ATS record as an underdog of a TD or more in Big 10 play. But the fact is that Michigan State simply is not that good in 2018 while Penn State is rested off a bye and angry off a loss. Sparty lost last Saturday, in East Lansing, to Northwestern by a score of 29-19. That was a game they were favored to win by double digits. Truthfully, I haven't been impressed in any game w/ MSU this year, save for a 35-21 win at Indiana, but even then they turned the ball over four times. The season started w/ them barely escaping at home against Utah State. The following week, I played against them out in Tempe when they lost outright to Arizona State. They also only beat a bad Central Michigan team by 11. 

Not only does Michigan State look to be outclassed here, but Penn State is rested and playing w/ revenge. Nevermind the fact that they should also be highly motivated from letting one slip away against Ohio State two weeks ago here in Happy Valley. The Nittany Lions at least still covered that game and are now a money-making 23-9 ATS overall the L3 seasons. One of the games they failed to cover was LY's visit to East Lansing where they lost 27-24 as nine-point favorites. Just like this year, they were coming off a narrow loss (1 point) to Ohio State. But the difference this year is the bye. Last year, they immediately had to play Sparty in an obvious letdown spot. This time, there has been time to "get over" the loss to the Buckeyes and get prepared to exact some revenge. 

Last year's game was decided on a last second FG in terrible weather. The game was actually delayed for 3.5 hours w/ Penn State up 14-7. Weather is not expected to be a factor Saturday in Happy Valley. The last time Michigan State visited here, they were soundly beaten, 45-12. Both teams may have started their respective season w/ a closer than expected call (MSU vs. Utah State, PSU vs. App State), but that's where the comparisons end. Penn State handily defeated its next three opponents (even w/ underwhelming 1st halves) and probably should have beaten Ohio State as well. Look for Nittany Lions QB Trace McSorley to have a big game here, similar to Northwestern's Clayton Thorson last week against this Michigan State defense, which is giving up over 300 YPG through the air. 8* Penn State

8* Charlotte (3:30 ET): We're going all home dogs in this package, starting w/ a matchup you're probably pretty unfamiliar with. But it looks like I'm not the only one who sees some significant value on a Charlotte here as the 49ers have actually been bet down a few points from the opening number. Still, I love the situation as they are off a bye. It was not a great first month of the season by any means as Charlotte's two wins saw them beat a FCS school (Fordham) and an Old Dominion team that had to deal w/ a schedule change due to Hurricane Florence (to be fair, Charlotte also had to deal w/ the change, but they were at home). But both wins did come here at home and I'm not sure Western Kentucky is a team that should be laying this many points on the road, even if they have covered three in a row and are off a bye themselves. Take the points.

Looking on the bright side, Charlotte already has more wins than they did all of last year (went 1-11 SU). That's not a surprise to me as the figured to be improved bringing back 18 starters. I think the last two games definitely deserve to be described as disappointing being that they actually outgained UMass in a 49-31 loss and could then muster only seven points against UAB. But both those games took place on the road and UAB was coming off its own bye. This will actually be the 49ers' 1st Saturday home game since Opening Weekend and I expect them to come out highly motivated. I thought the defense actually played remarkably well against UAB, given the circumstance. The Blazers came in ranked #8 in the country, averaging 280 YPG rushing. But the 49ers held them to a season-low 116 yds on the ground.

Western Kentucky might be 4-1 ATS, but they have just one SU win to show for it and that came against Ball State. The Hilltoppers have three losses by a field goal each, one of them to an FCS school, Maine. Granted, they've played well enough to win some of these games, whether it be Louisville (blew a double-digit lead) or Marshall (fumbled at the 10-yd line late). But they haven't been able to finish due to the offense converting on only 69% of its chances in the red zone and the kicking game missing half of its field goal attempts. My "gut" tells me this ends up being a close game where taking the points is the way to go. Charlotte QB Chris Reynolds and RB Benny Lemay can make enough plays that an outright upset isn't out of the realm of possibility. 8* Charlotte

8* Navy (3:30 ET): What is going on w/ Navy? The Midshipmen's season appears to be sinking fast w/ a 2-3 SU record that includes B2B outright losses to SMU and Air Force. If you recall, I faded the Middies at SMU, a game they lost in overtime. The team is actually now 0-3 ATS w/ three outright losses in the road favorite role this season after the horrible performance LW at Air Force, made all the more shocking by the fact they were off a bye. But this week finds them back in the more comfortable role of home underdog, which has treated them unbelievably well through the years. Navy's record as a home dog under HC Ken Niumatalolo is 6-1 SU and ATS w/ an outright win over Memphis earlier this season. I'll gladly take the points here against a Temple team that seems overvalued coming off a 49-6 win over East Carolina last week.

Temple's season did not appear to be destined for anything special when they opened w/ B2B home losses to Villanova (FCS school) and Buffalo. But they turned things around w/ a shocking performance at Maryland the following week, winning 35-14 as 16-pt dogs, and are 3-0 ATS since w/ the only loss coming at Boston College. This week will be the 1st time that the Owls are favored on the road, however, and that change can be a big deal. I'm not so sure this team is as good as it looked last week against East Carolina, who simply isn't a very good team. That game got out of hand very quickly w/ Temple jumping out to a 28-0 lead early in the 2Q following a 59-yard punt return for a touchdownn. QB Anthony Russo had a career day, completing 21 of 25 passes w/ four touchdowns. But he had a 0-4 TD-INT ratio the two weeks prior. 

Last week's effort against Air Force may have been the worst I have ever seen from Navy under Niumatalolo. They were held to only 178 total yards, easily a season low. Despite the defense allowing only 17 first downs for the game, Air Force still gained almost 400 total yards (399) as two of their five TD drives took less than a minute. I expect a huge bounce back effort from the service academy Saturday as they are 2-0 in Annapolis this season. Last year, the Owls had the benefit of facing Navy off a bye and facing Army the week prior.They pulled off a 34-26 upset as seven-point home dogs. What a swing in the line for this year. Temple has NEVER beaten Navy three straight times. 8* Navy

8* Los Angeles (2:05 ET): I'm expecting the Kings to score plenty in this Saturday afternoon matinee. They're playing the Senators, who have given up 13 goals in just the last two games. LA is off a shutout win, 3-0 over Montreal, with Jack Campbell turning in his first career shutout (40 saves). Campbell is now the "go to guy" between the pipes as Jonathan Quick is dealing w/ a lower body injury. That's no problem as Campbell has allowed just four goals in three games so far, turning in a .966 save percentage. The Kings typically do a great job at possessing the puck and should have little difficulty winning at Ottawa this afternoon.

The Senators are in rough shape right now and I'm not just talking about the 13 goals allowed in the past two games. The injury bug has bit them hard as three key contributors are slated to miss today's game. One is top scoring winger Ryan Dzingel. Rookie Alex Formenton and defenseman Cody Ceci will be joining Dzingel on the bench. The injury situation is so bad here that they may have to go w/ 11 forwards and seven defensemen. Of course, the number of goals allowed is just as large a problem and doesn't figure to subside as long as Craig Anderson keeps getting the call. Anderson has some truly horrific numbers thus far w/ an .895 save percentage and 4.35 goals against average.

LA will be looking to win B2B games for the 1st time this season and this is an ideal opponent. This is a team that's failed to record a point in only one game and that was at Winnipeg, which is a hard place to play. The Kings obviously have a huge edge in goal for this matchup and I can see this being the spot where they finally get their 26th ranked power play going. The Sens are only 1-11 SU at home the L3 seasons in games where they total is 6 or higher. 8* Los Angeles 

10* Duke (12:20 ET): Whether you're playing Georgia Tech or one of the service academies, successfully defending the triple option really seems to hinge on adequate preparation. Louisville is a poorly coached team going south in a hurry, but the Cardinals were also certainly ill-prepared for the Georgia Tech offense last Thursday in a 66-31 whitewashing. That game found L'ville not only playing on a short week, but also off a heartbreaking loss to Florida State the previous Saturday. They wanted no part of the Yellow Jackets, who ran for an astounding 532 yards. However, this week, the situation could not be more different for Ga Tech's opponent. Duke is off a bye and has already faced the triple option this year - when they beat Army 34-14. I'm taking the points here. 

Duke actually faces the triple option fairly regularly. Not only is Ga Tech a regular ACC opponent (both play in the Coastal Division), but they have faced Army three straight years as well. This is the second time this year they go up against the triple option in the most ideal spot possible. Army opened this year's schedule, so they had plenty of time to prepare and it showed in a 34-14 win where they allowed only 168 yards on 47 carries (only 3.57 YPC). Keep in mind that when they beat Army LY, the Blue Devils allowed only 4.0 YPC, which was an Army season low. Now they're off the bye getting ready to face Georgia Tech, who they've beaten three of the past four seasons. Last year, they won 43-20 as a seven-point home dog, the week after facing Army. 

Duke is a better team this year as they started 4-0 before a loss to Virginia Tech two weeks ago. That loss saw the return of QB Daniel Jones to the field and though the team lost, Jones should play a lot better here with two weeks to prepare. HC David Cutcliffe is an incredible 14-2 ATS w/ 12 outright upsets as an underdog of four points or less. He's also 7-1 ATS against option teams, including a perfect 4-0 ATS w/ three outright upsets the L4 seasons. Georgia Tech may come in off B2B 60+ pt efforts, but those came against two absolutely terrible teams in Bowling Green and Louisville. Defensively, Duke has the edge as they are holding opponents to 89 YPG less than what they average for the season. Georgia Tech is giving up 34 PPG and over 470 YPG to FBS teams this year. The better team is getting points here. 10* Duke

8* LA Dodgers (8:05 ET): I've been pretty adamant that the Dodgers are the best team in the National League as run differential is a far more important metric to me than won-loss record. The Dodgers were way in front in that metric, outscoring their opponents by 194 runs during the regular season. That was double all but two other Senior Circuit teams, the Cubs and Braves. Nothing I saw in the LDS dissuaded me from thinking Dodger Blue is the favorite as they rocked the Braves in all three wins, holding them to two runs while scoring 15. Really, if not for one swing of the bat (an Atlanta grand slam) that series would have been a sweep. Milwaukee did sweep Colorado in their LDS and has won 11 in a row overall. But they are less talented roster in this series and up against Clayton Kershaw in Game 1. 

I don't think there's any disputing that LA has the superior starting rotation in this series. It is of course led by Kershaw, who was filthy in his lone LDS start as he tossed eight shutout innings of two-hit ball. Surprisingly, he had only three strikeouts, but that hardly mattered as he was never threatened. It was the best playoff start of Kershaw's career. The Dodgers have now won Kershaw's last nine starts going back to mid-August w/ him posting a 0.895 WHIP in his last three. There have been only four starts all year where Kershaw allowed more than three earned runs. One of those four did come against the Brewers, but three of the four runs charged to him were unearned. He faced them again two weeks later and got more than enough run support in a 21-5 win. Kershaw allowed just two runs and five hits in that one. 

While Kershaw was an easy call for Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts, the Brew Crew took their sweet time announcing a Game 1 starter. You'll recall they actually went w/ a "bullpen game" to open the LDS. I actually think that doing the same here would have been a wise option here. However, I definitely think going w/ Gio Gonzalez instead of Jhoulys Chacin is a mistake. Chacin is the Brewers' best starter, but will be held off until Game 3. Gonzalez was a mid-season acquisition who did not appear at all in the LDS. He did go 3-0 in five September starts, but is highly unlikely to outduel Kershaw here. The Brewers do have the better bullpen, but it's not enough to overcome the starter discrepancy and they'll find the Dodgers to be a far greater challenge than the Rockies were. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Tulsa (7:00 ET): South Florida enters the weekend as 1 of 11 teams still w/o a loss this season. But of the 11, they just may be the weakest. The fact that the Bulls actually find themselves ranked in the top 25 this week is instructive as to just how pointless those rankings are. For the sake of reference, I have USF rated just outside the top SIXTY teams in the country. That "0" in the loss column may go a long way w/ the pollsters, but not w/ me. While the Bulls did just hang 58 points and 574 total yards on UMass last Saturday (also benefited from five turnovers), they won their previous two games - over Eastern Carolina & Illinois - by only a combined 13 points. East Carolina and Georgia Tech both outgained USF by more than 150 total yards. 

Tulsa is just 1-4 SU w/ four straight losses. But they have a bit of an edge right off the bat w/ two extra days to prepare. While USF was on the road last Saturday at UMass, the Golden Hurricane last played on Thursday. So this isn't even a short week for them. And that 41-26 loss at Houston last week was a little misleading in the sense that Tulsa led 26-17 early in the fourth quarter despite starting a backup freshman quarterback. They held the ball for 11 more minutes than Houston and gained 426 yards despite said backup QB and also being without one of their top two running backs. RB Shamari Brooks has 375 rushing yards on the year and is expected back on the field Friday. The Golden Hurricane are averaging more than 200 rush yards per game. 

USF, specifically RB Jordan Cronkite, can also run the ball as was evident last week vs. UMass when Cronkite topped 300 yds by his lonesome. But I'm still not sold on Charlie Strong's team. The schedule has certainly been pretty weak to this point w/ four wins over teams that are below a .333 win percentage vs. FBS foes dating back to last year and FCS Elon. The Bulls also commit a lot of penalties, which could bite them in this road favorite role. They have lost three of their previous four Friday night road games. These teams played last year, with USF winning only 27-20 as 22-pt home favorites. This isn't a typical trip for the Bulls with their only prior visit coming in 2014. I'm taking the points this week. 10* Tulsa

10* Under Eagles/Giants (8:20 ET): The Super Bowl Champion Eagles appear wounded. They've dropped B2B games and already equaled LY's number of losses w/ three. They're lucky to be in a pretty poor division (NFC East), which includes this week's opponent, the Giants. Philadelphia has yet to play a single NFC East game, so they still very much can control their own destiny. So far, all five games they've played have been decided by six points or less. But the reality is that last week's 23-21 loss to the Vikings (NFC Champ Game rematch) was not as close as the final score indicated. They were down 20-3 early in the second half and more than 200 of their 364 total yards came after that point. They were victimized by an early fumble return for touchdown, so their defense didn't play that poorly. 

Going back to last year, the Eagles defense has performed significantly better at home than on the road. They are on the road this week, but the Giants hardly have an offense that can take any kind of advantage. The G-Men actually scored 30+ pts last week, but of course still found a way to lose (to Carolina), this time being a Graham Gano 63-yard FG as time expired. This is a team that did not score 30 or more points in a single game last season ... or the year before that (2016) for that matter. In their previous three losses, the Giants scored only 15, 13 and 18 points. QB Eli Manning is washed up and over the hill, which is why WR Odell Beckham Jr is complaining so much. I'm not sure why the Giants have so much invested in the RB/WR positions when the QB play is so bad.

I think that it's a lock the Giants score fewer points this week. Last week snapped a streak of 37 straight games w/o scoring 30 or more. Both games vs. Philadelphia went Over last year as have each of the last five meetings. But this one should be a more low-scoring affair. Though Carson Wentz has good numbers in his first three starts, he's not making as many big plays. The Eagles' offense also just lost RB Jay Ajayi. The Giants' defense, while not great, should be able to keep them in this game. One area the G-men may have to worry about though is special teams as kicker Aldrick Rosas has not practiced this week. 10* Under Eagles/Giants

8* Texas State (7:30 ET): Georgia Southern is one of four teams that remains unbeaten against the spread. One of the other three also happens to hail from the Sun Belt, that being Appalachian State, who we made the mistake of fading Tuesday. Georgia Southern happens to play in the same division (SBC East) as App State and it figures to be a dogfight moving forward between the two teams at Troy. Last Saturday saw GSU make it a perfect 5-0 against the number w/ a commanding 48-13 win over South Alabama. The only team to defeat the Eagles this year was Clemson and that happens to be their only road game played so far. Thursday night finds them laying a big number at Texas State and while it looks like a mismatch, I think the underdog finds a way to compete here. 

Texas State HC Everett Withers has struggled to build a winner in San Marcos. His first two teams each went 2-10 SU. I thought this year's team would be better, but it's been tough sledding w/ the only win coming against an FCS school, Texas Southern. They were blown out at Rutgers to start the year, which they followed w/ the win over Texas Southern. They've since dropped three in a row, but none by more than 15 points. Against South Alabama, they led by 2 TDs on the road, but were outscored 18-0 in the fourth quarter. Each of the last two weeks, bad starts have doomed them. But they've been able to put some points on the board late. That will be critical here as there should at least be a chance to "backdoor" given the size of the pointspread. 

I'd honestly be shocked if Texas State won this game. Truthfully, the season is not looking good with most of their hardest conference games still to come. But this is a rare TV game at home and I at least expect a strong effort from the Bobcats. Georgia Southern may very well be overlooking this game w/ just five days to prepare. While the Eagles are certainly used to being favored, laying this many points on the road is still relatively new for a school that made the jump to FBS only four years ago. That first season at the FBS level saw them barely escape w/ a win here in San Marcos. They haven't faced Texas State in either of the past two seasons and this spread may very well end up as the most points they've ever had to lay on the road. Look for this game to be closer than expected. 8* Texas State

8* San Jose (7:05 ET): The Rangers have been as "bad as advertised" thus far as they are 0-3 and off an embarrassing 8-5 loss at Carolina. This is a total rebuilding year in MSG w/ the Blueshirts projected by many to finish either at or near the bottom in the Metro. Taking the ice w/ three days rest tonight sounds nice on paper, but the reality is the team is just 4-8 SU when it that role the previous two seasons. They welcome in a San Jose team that just SCORED eight times in its last game, a rout of Philadelphia on the road. The Sharks have alternated losses and wins through four games so far, but I have them winning B2B times for the first time this season here. 

In a wide open Pacific Division, I would not be surprised to see the Sharks swim to the top. They get a full season of Evander Kane (acquired at trade deadline LY) this year and signed Erik Karlsson in the offseason. Their top two lines up front are strong and Karlsson and Brett Burns form a formidable blue line. Martin Jones is off to a bit of a rough start in goal, but we should start to see things turn around for him. San Jose has been outshooting its opponents by a pretty wide margin thus far, by an average of 37.2 to 24.7 per game. That's one of the widest margins in the league right now. Even when they were shutout Monday in New York, they managed 35 shots on goal. They followed that up w/ the eight goal effort in Philly as 13 different players registered a point. 

Meanwhile, there's no sugarcoating how ugly it got for the Rangers down in Carolina Sunday. They gave up eight goals on 40 shots. That was all on backup goalie Alexandar Georgiev, but don't make the mistake of thinking Henrik Lundqvist's return can simply carry this team. Lundqvist was by no means bad in losses to Nashville and Buffalo to start the year, but the offense supplied him with only three goals. The Rangers are the only team in the league to have played multiple games and still have zero points. They are severely outclassed here as San Jose has cleaned up against teams w/ losing records the L3 seasons, going 56-31. 8* San Jose

8* NY Yankees (8:05 ET): The Yankees were beaten and humiliated last night, losing Game 3 by a score of 16-1. That moves them to the brink of elimination and the question becomes "is 24 hours enough to recover from such a loss?" I'll answer that question in the affirmative as they should stay alive and force a deciding Game 5 in Boston Thursday night. New York is 8-3 this season after allowing 10 or more runs the previous game.

It'll be up to playoff veteran CC Sabathia to keep the Yanks alive. Note the team was in this same position (down 2-1 in the series) twice in last year's postseason and won both times, each victory coming at home. This will be Sabathia's 24th career playoff start and while the hefty lefty is just 10-6 w/ a 4.20 ERA in those games, for whatever reason he's always been brilliant in the LDS where he's 6-0 all-time. As a Yankee, Sabathia has done his best postseason work, going 8-3 w/ a 3.26 ERA. Obviously, he's faced Boston many times. The last time he faced them here in the Bronx was June and he held them to one run over seven innings. Despite the disaster that was last night, I also still have great faith in the Yankees' bullpen. 

Alex Cora badly outmanaged Aaron Boone last night, but things can't possibly go as well for the Red Sox in Game 4 as they did in Game 3. Brock Holt isn't hitting for the cycle again nor is Rick Porcello likely to be as effective as Nathan Eovaldi was. Porcello's postseason resume isn't good as he's winless in 12 appearances w/ a 5.33 ERA. Four of those appearances have come w/ a Red Sox uniform on and his ERA is 7.00. His 22-11 TSR from the regular season is more a byproduct of run support than pitching well. He did throw two shutout innings against the Yankees on Friday, but hasn't gone longer than five innings in six of his last seven starts. I have to think that the Yankees are going to bounce back from what happened last night. 8* NY Yankees

10* Arkansas State (8:00 ET): To those who follow the Sun Belt, seeing Arkansas State as an underdog - in Jonesboro no less - is quite stunning. Especially of this magnitude. The Red Wolves have won this conference five times since 2010. They've only been a dog seven times, just three of those coming under current HC Blake Anderson. Their ATS record is a perfect 7-0 w/ SIX outright wins. They're getting almost double digits Tuesday and that's virtually unprecedented. The only time under Anderson that the Red Wolves have gotten this many points at home was when Missouri visited in 2015. This year's team is 3-2 SU w/ one of the two losses coming to Alabama. The other was two Saturdays ago to Georgia Southern, a spot they were favored on the road. I'll take the points here.

Appalachian State is unbeaten against the spread (4-0) and nearly won at Penn State. They took the Nittany Lions to overtime in the season opener and since then it's been three straight wins over cupcakes. They also had a game vs. Southern Miss cancelled due to Florence. As impressive as sticking w/ Penn State in Happy Valley was, we've learned little about the Mountaineers since then. Charlotte, Gardner-Webb nor South Alabama were no match, so you can basically "throw out" the respective final scores of 45-9, 72-7 and 52-7. This is not a place App State is used to visiting (last time here was '14) nor is Arkansas State an opponent they are all that familiar with. They have not even played the last two years.

Because they are 4-0 ATS w/ three blowout wins, this number is inflated. Three blowout wins have inflated their power rating. Take the fact that the Mountaineers rank 8th nationally in total defense w/ a grain of salt. I'm actually a little shocked that Arkansas State has not topped 30 pts since its opener vs. FCS SE Missouri State. They were the only SBC power to return its starting QB, that being senior Justice Hansen. He's underperformed to this point in the season, but that can change in a hurry. He threw for 376 yds in the loss to Ga Southern, a game that was not decided until the final seconds. Ark State outgained GSU in the 28-21 loss and had nearly twice as many first downs. 10* Arkansas State 

8* Columbus (7:05 ET): For me, Colorado was the biggest surprise in the league last season. That they improved was not the surprising part, but the degree to which they did was the surprise. They went from a historically bad 48 points in 2016-17 to 95 and making the playoffs in 2017-18. So far, this year has gotten off on "the right foot" as the Avs are 2-0 w/ wins over Minnesota and Philadelphia, both at home. But they enter the first road game of the season w/ possibly a significant issue as captain Gabe Landeskog is dealing with a lower-body injury. I'm also a little concerned w/ them starting backup Philip Grubauer in goal tonight. I'll call for their first loss of the season to take place tonight in Columbus. 

The Blue Jackets are 1-1 as they opened w/ a 3-2 (OT) win at Detroit, but dropped the home opener to Carolina by a score of 3-1. Losing your home opener should be motivation enough to bounce back the next time out. There will be no Brandon Dubinsky on the ice as he's out 4-6 weeks w/ a strained oblique. But I feel that C-bus is better contstructed to overcome a significant injury than is Colorado. The Blue Jackets were a strong home team last season, going 26-12-4 in Nationwide Arena. 

Columbus has had plenty of shots on goal the first two games, totaling 70. While Dubinsky and his ability to consistently win faceoffs will be missed, I still expect plenty of shots from the Blue Jackets tonight. In goal, they're likely to start Sergei Bobrovsky again after he stopped 32 of 35 shots against Carolina. Even if it's Joonas Korpisalo, I wouldn't mind. For the Avs, Grubauer is making his first start of the season and while it's against a familiar opponent (he's faced Columbus many times as the former backup in Washington), remember that his former team's run to the Stanley Cup last year came AFTER he was permanently benched in favor of Braden Holtby. The Blue Jackets are 12-3 when taking the ice on 3+ days rest and the Avs have dropped 51 of their last 68 road games. 8* Columbus

10* Under Redskins/Saints (8:20 ET): With the world focused on Drew Brees setting a NFL record, the Over is going to be a popular bet Monday night. But the oddsmakers know this and have set a high O/U mark for the Redskins and Saints. Washington should be well-prepared for this game as they are coming off a bye. They're 2-1 and last time we saw them was Week 3 as as home dog vs. Green Bay. I took them and the points in that one and was rewarded w/ a nice 31-17 outright victory. This is a team whose games have generally been low-scoring as they are averaging only 21.3 PPG while allowing only 14.7. Take the Under. 

As per usual, the Saints are scoring a lot of points. They average 34.2 points per game and have scored 40 or more twice. Last week was the first time this season that they had to take their act outdoors and they still scored 33 in a win over the Giants. They've now won three straight since that Week 1 head-scratcher against the Bucs where they gave up 48 points. The defense has faced two bad offenses the last three weeks and allowed just 18 pts to both the Browns and Giants. Washington can score more than those two teams, but I wouldn't look for them to get a whole lot more. 

Brees is all but assured to set the NFL record for passing yards in this one as he only need 201 yards to pass Peyton Manning. Will Brees be "pressing" to throw the ball and get the record though? That could be a factor. What the Saints should do is lean on the run as Mark Ingram returns from suspension for this game, joining Alvin Kamara for what is an outstanding backfield tandem. The Saints will "get theirs" on offense here, but remember they were held to just 21 pts in their last home game by the Browns. I don't look for them to hit 30 tonight. As for Washington, with Alex Smith at QB, we know they are going to be a conservative offense and I look for them to try and play "keep away" from Brees and the Saints. 10* Under Redskins/Saints

8* LA Dodgers (4:30 ET): The Dodgers failed in their first attempt to eliminate the Braves, but the beauty of going up 2-0 in a series is that you'll have multiple chances to close things out. And let's be honest here, save for one swing of the bat, the Braves have done very little in this series are are completely overmatched. Were it not for Ronald Acuna Jr's grand slam in the second inning last night, this series would be already over. The Dodgers shut the Braves out both games in LA and have held them to one run in the 25 innings that didn't feature Acuna's grand slam. The Braves have just 13 hits for the series and if you take out that grand slam, then they would have been held to 0 or 1 run seven times in the last eight games! This series ends today. 

Not to keep harping on it (but I will!); that grand slam was such a gift for the Braves. It came after two walks and a throwing error. Assuming such folly doesn't take place again today, expect the Braves to manage very little offensively against Rich Hill. Hill finished the regular season strong with a 6-1 record his last seven starts to go along w/ a 0.805 WHIP. He threw seven shutout innings in his last start, giving up only two hits. He has 14 strikeouts and no walks his last two starts and has allowed just one run on six hits. In this park, back on July 26th, Hill tossed seven more shutout innings and held the Braves to just three hits. Let's not forget LA has an excellent bullpen as well. 

For the second time in four games, the Braves turn to Mike Foltynewicz. In Game 1, he lasted only two innings and gave up four runs. It was a miserable outing as he allowed 2 HR's and walked three batters. I understand he was the team's best starter in the regular season, but I'm not sure what the rush is to get back out on the mound. Of course, this also speaks to the overall lack of depth in Atlanta's starting rotation. The Dodgers are one of baseball's highest scoring road teams (5.4 rpg), so I expect them to put plenty of runs on the board today. Again, barring anything like the 2nd inning of last night's game, I simply don't see the Braves doing much at the plate here. It's been a wonderful season for this young team, but it ends Monday. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Over Astros/Indians (1:30 ET): I believe there's a chance that first pitch time could be moved here depending on what happens in Sunday's NLDS action. Regardless of that, Over is my play for Game 3 of Astros-Indians. Houston has a commanding 2-0 series edge heading into Monday, having held Cleveland to three runs on six hits. But we should see a major offensive outburst this afternoon at Progressive Field - from both teams. The Indians ranked near the top of the league, averaging 5.5 rpg at home. Only two teams - the Red Sox and Yankees - scored more in their home parks. Meanwhile, the Astros ranked near the top of the league in runs scored per game on the road w/ 5.2. They actually averaged more rpg on the road than at home. Like I said, I'm on the Over here.

Dallas Keuchel, because he is a southpaw, might be the friendliest matchup for Cleveland hitters in this series. He certainly can't be any better than rotation-mates Verlander and Cole were in Games 1 & 2. The Cleveland lineup consists of mainly righties and switch-hitters, so it's a good platoon split for them. Also, Keuchel allowed opponents a .273 batting average on the road as opposed to .253 at home. He was not sharp down the stretch w/ a 6.23 ERA and 1.846 WHIP his L3 starts. Even in his last outing, designed to be just a tune-up for the postseason, he got into considerable trouble over his three innings of work. Both Keuchel starts vs. Cleveland this year went Over. 

Also, in the Astros' only visit to Progressive Field during the regular season, all four games of the series went Over. Those four games averaged 14 total runs scored. The Astros scored at least six runs in every game. As I said earlier, this offense was actually better on the road during the regular season. They'll face Mike Clevinger Monday, who did have a strong finish to the regular season. But like most of the Indians rotation, he feasted on facing terrible division opponents all year. Three of his last seven starts alone came against Kansas City. The Indians' bullpen also seems to be in tatters right now. Cleveland will score more in Game 3, I'm just not sure it will be enough to survive. 10* Over Astros/Indians

10* Houston (8:20 ET): Both Texas teams are desperate for a win Sunday night, but only one can get it. Houston is used to being in desperation mode as they opened 0-3. All three losses came by seven points or less, so it's not like they were getting blown out. Figuring the "worm was due to turn," I took the Texans last week and they grinded out an OT win over the Colts, 37-34. All that work would be for naught, however, if they reverted back to losing here. As I said last week, this team is better than its record. They came into last week ranked 8th in yards per play on offense and those number obviously got better w/ a 37-point effort. Their defense, led by JJ Watt, should have no problem containing a rather one-dimensional Dallas offense and I'll lay the points.

The Cowboys are 2-2, having won twice at home and lost twice on the road. The two road games have seen them score just 21 pts total while they're averaging 23 PPG at home. It also helped to play two bad teams, the Lions and Giants, at home. Last week, they blew a 10-pt fourth quarter lead against the Lions, only to rally for a GW FG on the final play. We know the Cowboys can run the ball effectively (145 YPG) but their passing attack just might be the worst in the league. From a personnel standpoint, I can't think of a worse receiving corps. Going back to last year, there's been just one time in the last six road games that the Cowboys have topped 212 yards passing. 

Traditionally, this has been a shaky spot for Houston as they are 0-6 ATS the L3 seasons off a division win. But I have a hard time forgetting they were up 28-10 last week on the Colts before letting Andrew Luck make things interesting. The defense is top 10 in the league against the run, allowing fewer than 100 YPG, so they match up well w/ the Dallas offense. The Cowboys had a much more favorable matchup last week against the Lions, whose defense is much better against the pass than they are the run. Note that the Cowboys' defense has previously had trouble w/ two dual-threat type QBs this year (Cam Newton and Russell Wilson). Houston's DeShaun Watson presents similar problems and I'm projecting him to have a big game here. Look for the Texans to "show up" big in this Sunday night home game. 10* Houston 

10* Colorado (4:35 ET): After dropping the first two games in Milwaukee, the Rockies should bounce back in a major way at home in Game 3. I probably shouldn't have to tell you about the effect Coors Field can have on an offense, specifically that of the home team. At Miller Park, the Rockies were held to just two runs in 19 innings. Were it not for a two-run rally in the ninth inning in Game 1, they would have been shutout both games. They had just 10 hits total in the two games. But at home, things will change. As per usual, the Rockies ranked near the top of the league in runs per game at home w/ 5.5. I wonder if all the travel over the last week caught up with them as they played four games in three different cities over a five-day span. Being off Saturday was about as welcome as the return home itself. 

A big difference between Rockies' teams of the past and this year is the starting pitching. Finally, this franchise has itself a quality rotation. Pitching certainly was not an issue in Games 1 & 2 nor will it be here in Game 3 w/ German Marquez on the bump. Marquez has been shockingly good down the stretch w/ a 2.33 ERA and 0.95 WHIP his L7 starts. In six of those seven starts, he's struck out nine or more batters. Yes, Milwaukee's offense should also be able to get a "boost" by hitting here, but Marquez should be able to limit them adequately. The last time Marquez pitched here at home, he threw seven shutout innings of three-hit ball w/ 11 K's. He has a 1.93 ERA and 0.911 WHIP his L3 starts overall.

Colorado was going to improve offensively no matter what, but facing Wade Miley will help even more. The Rockies have a predominantly right-handed lineup, so facing the southpaw Miley will be right in their wheelhouse. Miley had a somewhat shocking 12-4 TSR in the regular season w/ a 2.57 ERA. But I remain skeptical. There have been just two times in the last eight starts where he's gone longer than five innings and just one where he's gone longer than six. The Brewers' bullpen isn't a terrible option, but this venue obviously presents its challenges. I know Milwaukee has won 10 in a row, but I just see too much Colorado offense in this one in a game they have to have. 10* Colorado

10* Seattle (4:25 ET): As much of a decline as the Seahawks are in, I have to say that them getting so many points at home still looks odd. Granted, it's the Rams coming to town and I don't think there's any disputing that they are the best team in football right now. LA did humiliate the Seahawks up here in Seattle last season, 42-7, but I do not see the same thing happening again this time. I realize that the 'Hawks may be at the nadir of the Pete Carroll era right now w/ the loss of Earl Thomas for the rest of the season. But this is still a prideful team that will show up to play at home. They definitely won't be lacking for motivation this week. The last time Seattle was a home dog of seven points or more was the infamous playoff win against the Saints where Marshawn Lynch made the Earth shake. 

The Rams are 4-0 straight up and their ATS record depends on what number you are using for last Thursday's game against Minnesota. Cover, no-cover, or push, the Rams offense was certainly outstanding in that game, totaling 38 pts and 556 total yards against a Mike Zimmer defense. The Rams have scored 33 or more points in every game so far with seven points being their closest margin of victory. I will concede that they are clearly the best team in football right now. But this spread is still too high. Laying a field goal I could understand, but not a full touchdown. I believe this number is an overreaction to the Thomas injury and the fact the Rams just played on national television. 

Seattle has won B2B games, by the way. Yes, the teams they beat were Dallas and Arizona. But the defense allowed just 30 pts total in those two wins. Three of the Seahawks' four games this year have been decided by a TD or less and they've only gotten to play once at home. (The 24-13 win over Dallas). Over the L3 weeks, the defense is allowing an average of just 279 YPG. Yes, they now must deal w/ losing the irreplaceable Thomas. But the loss of him alone will not cause this defense to fall off a cliff. On offense, they still have QB Russell Wilson to make plays. This is my favorite play of the week. Take the points. 10* Seattle

8* Arizona (4:25 ET): The Cardinals are the last winless team in the league, so we know they'll be desperate for a win this week in San Francisco. Each of the last two weeks have seen the Cards come oh so close - only to fail by a field goal or less both times. Two weeks ago at home, they led Chicago much of the way before ultimately coming up short in a 16-14 loss. It was a similar story LW vs. Seattle where they lost on a field goal as time expired, 20-17. The Seattle game marked the 1st career start for QB Josh Rosen and while the numbers seem to indicate a rather pedestrian performance (180 yds, 1 TD), he was plagued by drops from his receivers. I counted five. Had those been completions, Rosen would have been close to a 300-yd game and Arizona probably would have won. To me, there's no disputing that the Cardinals are a more dynamic offensive team w/ the rookie Rosen under center.

Arizona is the winless team, but San Francisco might have more issues heading into Week 5, namely on the injury front. You probably are well aware that QB Jimmy Garoppolo has been lost for the season. Well, there are issues at all the skill positions as RB Matt Brieda is dealing with a shoulder injury and both starting WRs - Dante Pettis and Marquise Goodwin - are battling their own respective injuries. Pettis has been ruled out while Breida and Goodwin are listed as questionable. Speaking of questionable, the Niners could be w/o as many as THREE starters along the offensive line! Joe Staley, Weston Richburg and Mike McGlinchey. Those "only" the center and both starting tackles. Somehow, with CJ Beathard starting at QB last week, the team put up a game effort in a 29-27 loss to the Chargers. But I would not expect that to continue. 

The 49ers have lost six straight to the Cardinals, getting swept in the season series each of the last three years. Then there's this ... they are 0-11-2 ATS the L13 times they have been a home favorite. It's a streak that dates back to December of 2013. I understand Arizona deserves to be a dog in this spot, but I'd have a real hard time laying points w/ this 49ers team starting Beathard at QB w/ few weapons at his disposal and an injury-ravaged offensive line. With Rosen now in the fold, the Cardinals go into this game w/ the edge at QB and they're getting points. The Rams are the only offense to score more than 24 points on the Arizona defense. San Francisco had a defensive TD last week, so their 27 pts scored was a little misleading. I'm taking the points here. 8* Arizona

8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): Now I know what you're thinking. "Not Buffalo!" The Bills, a playoff team year ago, have fallen both hard and fast. Considering the unanimous view that they are one of the two worst teams in football (Arizona), it's almost crazy to think that this was a playoff team a year ago. Last week was another clunker as they were shutout in Green Bay, 22-0. It was the second game this year that the Bills' offense was held to three points or less AND gained less than 155 total yards. But, hey, they do have that stunning 27-6 win at Minnesota in Week 3. They also have something in common w/ this week's opponent, Tennessee. Neither team has been favored in a single game this season.

Tennessee is a surprising 3-1. I say "surprising" because they haven't been favored a single time. After opening the season w/ a road loss to Miami (two long rain delays), they've won three straight by a total of nine points. Every win has been by exactly a field goal including 26-23 last week as a home dog over the Super Bowl Champion Eagles. They've also beaten Jacksonville on the road, 9-6. Note that last week's win did come in overtime and the Titans were outgained. They actually gave up a FG to start OT before answering w/ a TD. Despite their 3-1 SU record, Tennessee is being outgained on a per play basis and by about 50 YPG. The offense was held under 300 total yds by both Houston & Jacksonville. I would not trust this team as a road favorite yet, especially this many points.

Playing at home, I think that the Bills defense can keep them in this one throughout. They rank in the top half of the league in yards allowed and top 10 in yards per play. Remember that Titans QB Marcus Mariota has been battling a nerve issue in his elbow. Tennessee easily could have lost last week as they were down 14 in the second half. Had they lost that game, my guess is we'd be viewing this team a whole lot differently right now. The Titans are just 11-21 ATS their past 32 road games. Having not won a single game by more than a field goal this year, I'm not about to lay almost a touchdown w/ them on the road, even against Buffalo. The number is now inflated. Take the points. 8* Buffalo

8* San Jose State (10:30 ET): You have to feel for San Jose State, who remains winless after a 5 OT loss here at home to Hawaii last weekend. But the Spartans were still a winner for me in that thrilling game as they easily covered the number. In fact, they led outright most of the way, which is what made the final result so disheartening for them. At no point were they "out of the money" as double digit dogs. While that kind of result can have a negative effect on a team, in this instance I think it will be galvanizing. This is a team that feels they should have won last week and remains desperate for that elusive first victory. I think they have an excellent shot at getting it this week against a Colorado State team that is much worse than you think. I'll take the points w/ SJSU again. 

SJSU led Hawaii by as much as two touchdowns in the 1st half and was still up 31-24 late in the 4th quarter. They gave up a 12-play, 75-yard drive to send the game into OT, but by that point the cover was already assured. Still, I wanted the outright win. They answered Hawaii's touchdown in the 1st OT w/ one of their own and then the 2nd and 3rd OTs both saw each team miss a field goal. After missing their chance to win in the 3rd OT, the Spartans took the lead in the 4th OT by actually making a field goal. But Hawaii answered w/ one of their own, then made another in OT #5. Appropriately perhaps, the game ended on a missed FG by San Jose State. A brutal loss for sure, but after coming so close, the Spartans will be ready to go this week. They've already played both Washington State and Oregon, so this game is a significant drop in class for them. 

Colorado State has gone 7-6 SU each of the last three seasons and has been to a bowl each of the last five years. But this year's squad has had its issues right off the bat. HC Mike Bobo was dealing with health issues and the roster is the least experienced in the entire country. This is a bottom 10 team in the country, in my opinion, and they should not be favored on the road here. In retrospect, it was an insane that they opened the season as 17-point favorites at Hawaii, a game they lost 43-34. (I had Hawaii). After getting blown out by in-state rival Colorado (45-13), many thought the Rams had turned the corner when they upset Arkansas (at home), but we didn't know how bad the Hogs were at that time. The Rams' next SEC opponent (Florida) wasn't as kind as the final was 48-10 in Gainesville, but the following week was far more embarrassing w/ CSU losing outright at home to FCS Illinois State, 35-19. Yes, they've had a week off to recoup, but the situation isn't enough to overlook a clearly inflated line this week. The Rams offense has been held under 20 pts in three of five games so far. San Jose State has revenge for a 42-14 loss in Ft. Collins last year. 8* San Jose State

10* NY Yankees (8:15 ET): The Yankees have now dropped five straight playoff games to the hated Red Sox dating back to the infamous 2004 ALCS when Boston would go on to "break the curse." Last night saw the Sox jump on Yankees starter J.A. Happ early for five runs in the first three innings. That was more than enough for Chris Sale, who had eight strikeouts on his way to his first career playoff victory. But Sale only lasted 5 1/3 innings and the Red Sox bullpen was pretty shaky. The Yankees did make a game of it, eventually falling 5-4, and that should give them confidence heading into tonight's Game 2. Unlike last night, I believe the Yanks will have the starting pitching edge and that should carry them to a victory as they look to even up this best of five series. 

Masahiro Tanaka is the Yankees Game 2 starter. He has a 1.44 career ERA in the postseason (four starts). Last year's postseason saw him allow just two runs in 20 IP. He's coming off a pretty good regular season as well w/ a 12-6 record in 27 starts. While a 3.81 ERA and 1.135 WHIP may sound somewhat pedestrian, note both numbers were lower out on the road, including a WHIP of 0.981. While three of his four starts against Boston weren't very good this year, one of them here at Fenway was. He allowed just one run in 4 2/3 innings. As I'm about to get into, any struggles Tanaka may have w/ the Red Sox pale in comparison to his counterpart's against the Yankees. In nine career starts at Fenway, Tanaka has a 3.90 ERA. 

Needless to say, the pressure will be on Red Sox starter David Price tonight. He is 0 for 8 all-time in the postseason w/ a 5.84 ERA as a starter. In three starts vs. the Yankees this year, he is 0-3 w/ a 10.34 ERA. So you can see why I like this matchup from New York's perspective. Their predominantly right-handed lineup should continue to have plenty of success against the southpaw Price. Note that the current five-game streak the Red Sox have over the Yankees in the postseason is the longest by either team in the history of the rivalry. While some may be surprised to see the odds reflecting Game 2 as a toss-up in Boston, I actually believe that the Yankees should be favored. Look for them to steal one in Boston. 10* NY Yankees

8* Mississippi State (7:30 ET): What was looking like a promising season in Starkville is now close to going off the rails w/ a disappointing 0-2 start in SEC play. Three weeks ago, I had no qualms about laying a massive number w/ the Bulldogs (nearly five touchdowns) against Louisiana and was rewarded w/ a 56-10 win. That result had them at 3-0 straight up and against the spread w/ an avg MOV of 41.3 PPG. I thought a case could be made this was team on track to be Top 10 in the country, but they've unfathomably been held to just 13 points in two weeks and less than 200 YPG. Now they have to take a visit from an Auburn team that is in fact top 10 in the country. But I happen to think MSU is a tremendous value as a home dog, a role they almost certainly would NOT have been in this spot were this game played just two weeks ago. Take the points. 

Auburn has already played two Top 10 opponents and split the pair. They opened the season w/ a 21-16 "neutral site" game vs. Washington (had significant crowd support edge in Atlanta), but were actually a little lucky to win that game thanks to two costly UW turnovers. Two weeks later, they lost at the gun to LSU, 22-21 as 10-pt home favorites. That one shocked many. Despite two subsequent double digit victories - over Arkansas and Southern Miss - I really haven't been impressed w/ Auburn in either game. Even though they beat Arkansas 34-3, they were actually outgained 290-225! Scoring 34 points on 225 total yards is not easy to do and that win was almost exclusively owed to the special teams. Last week vs. Southern Miss saw a long weather delay and was still a one-score game late into the 4Q. 

I came into the year thinking Auburn was due to regress. That might sound crazy considering they actually lost four games last year despite also holding wins over both Alabama and Georgia (two teams that played for Nat'l Title). Mississippi State is a team I had improving and that certainly looked smart after three games. I'm not sure what has gone wrong the last two weeks, but it's hard for me to see this team losing B2B weeks in Starkville. This is also double revenge spot as they've been humbled each of the last two years by Auburn. For Auburn, this is their first "true" road game. While 15-1 SU their L16 games at Jordan-Hare (7-0 LY), the Tigers have gone 6-7 SU away from home since the start of 2016. I still believe in Nick Fitzgerald and Mississippi State. 8* Mississippi State

8* Run Line Cleveland (4:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Indians +1.5. Yesterday was not a good day for the Tribe nor starter Corey Kluber. The staff ace simply wasn't himself in giving up three home runs (4 runs total) in just 4 2/3 innings. That was more than enough offense for Justin Verlander, who led Houston to the 7-2 Game 1 victory. That result puts Cleveland into somewhat of a "desperation spot" here in Game 2 as an 0-2 series hole would probably be too deep to climb out of against the mighty Astros. I still believe the Indians are undervalued in ths series and will take them to do no worse than a one-run loss this afternoon. 

Carlos Carrasco gets the Game 2 nod for Cleveland. I certainly expect him to perform better than Kluber did yday. For whatever reason, Kluber simply hasn't been good the L2 postseasons. Carrasco has just one career playoff start under his belt, but it was a good one. He held the Yankees to three hits in 5 2/3 scoreless innings in LY's ALDS. As for 2018, Carrasco was even better than he was in 2017. He had a lower FIP and walk rate while also improving upon his strikeout numbers. The good news for this game is his numbers were slightly better on the road than at home. He pitched here in Houston back in May and allowed just three runs in 7 2/3 IP. His career ERA at Minute Maid Park is 1.17. There have only been two second half starts where Carrasco allowed more than 3 ER.

Houston goes w/ Gerrit Cole for Game 2. What a stacked rotation this is. Cole was the team's most successful starter w/ a 24-8 TSR in the regular season and the team has won all of his L6 outings. It's going to be tough for the Cleveland hitters, just as it was against Verlander yday, but I expect that they won't have the added pressure of falling behind early today. Again, these teams are more even than you think. With Josh Donaldson in the Indians' lineup, their offense is better than it showed yday and what the regular season numbers might indicate. 8* Run Line Cleveland (+1.5)

8* Arizona State (4:00 ET): The Herm Edwards hire at Arizona State was critically panned initially, but then quickly required a reassessment when the Sun Devils upset Michigan State back in Week 2. I was on ASU in that spot and came away impressed w/ just how well this outfit was coached. Some of the enthusiasm has since waned as the team went on to drop B2B games at San Diego State and Washington. But those were two quality foes, both on the road. Things got back in track LW in Tempe w/ a dominant 52-24 win over perennial Pac 12 doormat Oregon State. One thing is for sure and that's Coach Herm is beating the oddsmakers' expectations w/ the team now 4-1 ATS. I love them as a dog this week at unbeaten Colorado, who is due to drop a game. Take the points. 

Colorado is one of 14 teams still w/o a blemish in the loss column. They are the only Pac 12 team still unbeaten, which I don't think anyone expected. Remember that two years ago Mike MacIntyre (a fine head coach) led this team to a 10-4 SU record and Pac 12 South title. They predictably dropped last year, but a 5-7 record was definitely worse than what the faithful in Boulder were looking for. But just as predictable as LY's decline is this year's improvement. They are 4-0 w/ one outright upset at Nebraska where they clearly benefited from an injury to the opposing QB. We also had no idea how bad the Cornhuskers were at the time. Still, the Buffs needed two TDs in the final minute to win 33-28 in Lincoln, a game they were outgained 565-395, but also lucky to be +3 in turnovers. 

Colorado has yet to beat a team currently ranked inside my top 90! Their two Power 5 wins - Nebraska and UCLA - are two of the weakest you can have. Their other wins are against Colorado State (bottom 10 FBS team this year) and New Hampshire, a FCS school. Last Friday against UCLA saw them blow up what was a close game going into the 2nd half w/ four straight TDs. That won't be happening here against a Sun Devils' defense giving up less than 20 PPG. ASU has won 8 of the 9 matchups as Pac 12 rivals, including 41-30 LY in Tempe as they outscored CU 24-3 in the 4th quarter. Yes, the Buffs are a better team in 2018, but so are the Sun Devils. Last week saw RB Eno Benjamin become the 1st player to top 300 yds rushing in a game this season at the FBS level, 185 of them coming by halftime. The last FBS team to give up 300 yds rushing to an individual was Colorado last year, against Arizona. 8* Arizona State 

10* Miami FL (3:30 ET): Each of Miami's last two games have been pretty misleading finals. They've won both handily, but the one that was a blowout was probably closer than the score indicates while it was vice versa with the other. Two weeks ago against Florida International was a truly dominant performance. At one point, total yardage was 397-10 in the Canes' favor and they led 31-0 late into the 4Q. But then FIU decided to go on a late scoring frenzy w/ 17 unanswered points against Miami's backups. In the end, it was still a 488-187 edge in total yardage. Off that performance, I laid the big number w/ "The U" last Thursday against North Carolina. Forcing six turnovers was huge in a game where total yardage was basically even and Miami had only 14 first downs. The defense scored THREE touchdowns and it was an easy win and cover (47-10 final score). 

Florida State squeaked out win last Saturday at Louisville, but this team remains a mess. They are now 3-2 SU in Willie Taggert's first year here, but probably should be 1-4! They had to rally late to beat FCS Samford 36-26 and that win probably doesn't happen if not for forcing five turnovers. Last week, they escaped L'ville w/ a win only because Bobby Petrino failed to run the clock out properly. The Cardinals had a three-point lead and were on the FSU 21-yard line w/ less than two minutes to go. Incredibly, Petrino called a pass play and the Seminoles intercepted, leading to the GW TD. For me, it didn't matter as I still cashed Louisville plus the points. But it should have been an outright win. FSU's other two ACC games - vs. Va Tech and Syracuse - have seen them get outscored 54-10. They are now 0-10-1 ATS in conference play since the start of last season. 

Looking back through this heated rivalry, I'm not sure the last time Miami has has such a "golden" opportunity to "lay the wood" to FSU as they do here. Last year, they won in Tallahassee, ending a seven-game series losing streak. This game is in Coral Gables where they've won their last 12 regular season games. The majority of these FSU-Miami games have been close (14 of the last 16 decided by 7 pts or less). But this spread isn't nearly high enough considering how good Miami has looked since the loss to LSU. That loss looked bad at the time, but note they actually held the Tigers under 300 total yds! Florida State has looked really "iffy" under Taggert and the books have been slow to react as to just how mediocre this program is right now. This is their second straight week playing on the road, off a lucky, down to the wire win. This is Miami's third straight home game and they've had two extra days to prepare. 10* Miami FL

8* Florida (3:30 ET): Back on 9.8, when Florida lost at home to Kentucky, there was still a lot we didn't know. For starters, who had any idea that UK would rise up to the top 15 of the rankings? It also appears as if it was largely a mistake to write off the Gators. They've subsequently won three straight games, two by double digits and then an upset of Mississippi State last week. That upset caught many off-guard seeing as it was HC Dan Mullen's first venture back to Starkville since leaving that school high and dry. The Gators' fine defense held the Bulldogs to just 202 total yards in 13-6 win as seven-point road underdogs. The SEC gauntlet has undefeated LSU coming to Gainesville this week and I believe Mullen's Gators are poised to possibly hand them their 1st loss. 

LSU HC Ed Orgeron entered 2018 on the hot seat. I'll admit that I thought LSU was heading for a "down year" in the SEC West. Instead, it's been anything but. The 5-0 start began w/ an upset of Miami, 33-17, where I was on the wrong side. The Bayou Bengals have also gone to Auburn and pulled a 22-21 upset as 10-pt underdogs. Few teams in the country can claim to own two wins that impressive. But the offense was held to less than 300 yds by a Miami defense that isn't as strong as the one they'll go up against here. The Auburn game saw them down double digits in the 2nd half. Let's also not forget that it was a three-point game at home vs. LA Tech in the fourth quarter (total yds even despite 38-21 final). Last week was an impressive win over Ole Miss and I suspect that has inflated this number. 

Most of the recent LSU-Florida games have been close affairs. LSU has won 6 of 8, including 3 of the last 4 w/ all four decided by a TD or less. In a scheduling quirk, this will be the second straight year having to go to Gainesville. (In 2016, Hurricane Matthew caused the game to be moved to Baton Rouge). Florida lost LY by a single point, 17-16, as a one-point favorite. LSU came into that game unranked and off an embarrassing loss the week prior to Troy. It's a much different situation this year and the Gators are a much better (and more experienced) team. It's not often the home team is a dog in The Swamp and LSU is 0-2 ATS the L2 times it has been a road fave of a field goal or less. Take the points. 8* Florida 

10* Kansas (12:00 ET): West Virginia, now ranked in the top 10 nationally, is probably deserving of being called the second best team in the Big 12 (behind only Oklahoma). But though they're 4-0 SU/ATS, I'm still not sure that we know that much about the Mountaineers. Their first three victories of the season - over Tennessee, Youngstown State and Kansas State - all came against bad teams. They did go to Texas Tech last week and pick up a big 42-34 win, but the final was a bit misleading and I'm not just saying that because I had the other side. WVU did jump out to an early 28-10 lead in Lubbock, but were also +3 in turnovers against a Red Raiders team down to its THIRD QB of the season. Total yardage was basically even as the WVU offense was shutout in the 2H.

Kansas is obviously recognized as the worst team in the Big XII. But the Jayhawks have already exceeded LY's win total! This season did not get off to a great start w/ a home loss to FCS Nicholls State. But HC David Beatty rallied the troops for rare B2B wins, beating Central Michigan and Rutgers by a combined 65 points. They've since gone 0-2 in conference play, losing to Baylor and Oklahoma State by 19.5 PPG. For most teams, that would be very disappointing. But for the Jayhawks, it actually represents progress! Last year's team was outgained by 193 YPG and outscored by 32 PPG. The improvement the 2018 team has shown thus far really shouldn't be that surprising. After all, this team entered this year as the most experienced in the entire country! 

I wouldn't go so far to say Kansas has given WVU "trouble" the last two years. But they have been able to at least hang around and make things interesting from an ATS perspective. Here in Morgantown, two years ago, they covered as 34-point dogs (final score: 48-21). Last year was a 56-34 game that fell right on the number. However, it was actually 42-34 before WVU scored two TD's in the final five minutes. There is no doubt in my mind that the Jayhawks are much improved in 2018. Meanwhile, maybe it's fair to call WVU the 2nd best team in the conference, but I believe they're currently overvalued from a national perspective. As an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points, KU is a solid 5-2 ATS the L3 seasons. They were only down 13 late in the 4Q vs. OK State last week. 10* Kansas