8* West Virginia (1:30 ET): Most are simply writing WVU off here as they enter the Heart of Dallas Bowl w/o their starting QB, Will Grier. That's definitely a big blow, but NOT something they can't overcome and in the past, I've seen bowl teams overcome greater adversity. Furthermore, as a result of the Grier injury, the oddsmakers have gotten REALLY generous here. Remember that w/o Grier, the Mountaineers still scored 31 points and gained nearly 400 yds in the regular season finale. Now, they still lost because they were facing Oklahoma and the Sooners' offense is an absolute juggernaut. But Utah is not Oklahoma and won't be scoring anywhere near 59 points. I like the idea of WVU HC Dana Holgorsen having this much time to prepare. Take the points. 

Rather than "roll over" w/o their starting QB, I expect this dog to be quite motivated Tuesday afternoon. The West Virginia seniors have yet to cover a bowl game, winning only one and that was the 2015 Cactus Bowl (by a single point!) over Arizona State. Things were going quite well in Morgantown before the Grier injury as the team was 7-3 SU (went 10-3 SU last season). But they lost the L2 games to Texas and Oklahoma. Both of those teams are better than what they'll face here. Yes, I concede not having Grier does put a damper on the 16th ranked offense in FBS. But we saw Holgorsen get creative in the Oklahoma game (wildcat!) and I'm sure he'll have multiple wrinkles here. Also, the irony is that it many be the WVU defense that keeps them in this one. Exotic blitzing is something we see regularly from DC Tony Gibson and Utah's offensive line is not good. 

In addition to the Grier injury, another reason the Utes are getting plenty of "love" here is HC Kyle Whittingham's 10-1 SU bowl record. But how many times during that stretch have the Utes been an underdog? (A: more than not). The Utes were 6-2 SU/ATS as favorites this regular season, but just two of those games were away from Salt Lake and both came early (as in September). They also won both (Arizona, BYU) by just six points each. Too many people are writing off the Mounties here and I'll play 'contrarian' and grab the points. 8* West Virginia

10* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): Minnesota made most people's "most improved list" for this season and thus far they have not disappointed, jumping out to a 20-13 SU start, which is good enough for fourth in the rugged Western Conference. Entering this game, they have won three straight (and six of eight) despite some defensive deficiencies. We've begun to see this team favored more often, even on the road, but it hasn't treated them too well as they're just 9-14-2 ATS as chalk. On Christmas Night, they'll travel to LA and face another team that's improved from last year, albeit not by as much as the T'wolves have. But the Lakers are a tough out (6-2 ATS) and a SIGNIFICANTLY better team on the defensive end here. So I'll take the points.

Last year, the Lakers ranked dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. This year, they have risen to 7th! Don't look simply at points per game allowed; the Lakers typically play higher possession games than do the T'wolves. Let's credit the defensive efficiency as the primary reason LA has jumped up closer to respectability. Yes, their record is only 11-20 SU (inverse of Minnesota!). But they've only been outscored by 2.5 points per game. Consider the T'wolves have the opposite record despite a per game point differential of only +1.7. 

Off a three-point loss to Portland (where HC Luke Walton called the team out for "pouting"), expect a motivated Lakers squad here. This team has recently played Golden State tough (twice!). Due to an injured quad, Brandon Ingram did not play vs. Portland, but I won't be surprised to see him in the lineup here. I just don't trust a T'wolves team that is allowing opponents to shoot better than 48% for the season to lay points away from home. They've allowed 104+ point in four consecutive games. This will also be their third consecutive road game in a six-day span.  The Lakers were actually favored against Portland (closed -3), which I didn't understand, but the underdog role certainly suits them better. Sure enough, we find them at 10-4 ATS this season when taking on a team that has a winning record. 10* LA Lakers

10* Over Steelers/Texans (4:30 ET): Even w/ an extra day to prepare, this is not a great situation for the Steelers, who are having to hit the road after losing an emotional game (at home) last week to the Patriots and they no longer have WR Antonio Brown (out for the rest of the reg season). The loss, which has brought about debate ad nauseum over how how the late game execution was handled, probably will cost the Black & Gold home field advantage in the AFC playoff draw (they now need New England to lose again). Though, it is is likely they'll still be the #2 seed and get a bye. Fortunately though, this week's opponent is exponentially weaker, especially now that they are on their THIRD QB of the season. I wouldn't want to lay the points, but Pittsburgh should certainly score enough here to help the game go Over the total.

As you (likely) now know, Ben Roethlisberger threw an INT in the end zone in the closing seconds of last week's 27-24 loss to the Patriots. If there was ever time to call up the "dreaded" fate route, it was there. At worst, the pass goes incomplete, you can still kick the game-tying field goal and then try your luck in overtime. But considering the Steelers were already 7-1 SU in games decided by seven points or less this season, maybe they were due for some "comeuppance." While no Steelers' road game has gone Over this season (0-6-1), this talented offense has certainly begun to "rediscover itself" w/ averages of 28.7 points and 444 yards per game over the L3 weeks.

While I certainly expect the Pittsburgh offense to "get theirs" at the expense of an injury-riddled defense, the Texans offense will be required to do SOMETHING here to help this one go Over the total. Certainly, there's only one way to go (and that's up!) after four straight games of 16 pts or fewer. Last week, they gained just 186 yards total, but that game (vs. Jacksonville) still went Over as it was a 45-7 loss. QB TJ Yates obviously isn't great, but he's probably playing for a roster spot at this point. Plus, he has one of the top WR's in the game to throw to in DeAndre Hopkins. But the really good news is that the Texans' scoring average jumps up to 27.4 PPG at home. Four of the Steelers' last five games would have gone Over this total. Houston home games average roughly 51 PPG. 10* Over Steelers/Texans

8* Over Cavs/Warriors (3:05 ET): My read on Cleveland has been pretty consistent this year: Maybe they'll wind up as the best team in the East, but it's difficult to take them seriously in a potential NBA Finals matchup with either the Warriors or Rockets given a woeful defense that currently ranks 27th in efficiency. To put that ranking in its proper perspective, the only teams giving up more points per possession are: Phoenix, Atlanta and Sacramento (three worst teams in the league?). Now they play old nemesis Golden State, who is #2 in the league in offensive efficiency. The Cavs are a perfect 6-0 ATS as underdogs so far this season, but are also #3 in offensive efficiency themselves. This has "Over" written all over it.

These teams are obviously no strangers to one another. This will be the third year in a row they're meeting on X-Mas Day (home team won each time) and of course they've met in three straight NBA Finals. The Warriors famously "blew a 3-1 lead" in the '16 NBA Finals (Cleveland's 1st pro sports championship of any kind since the 1950s!), but there was no such meltdown in LY's Finals as the Dubs finished things off in five games. The last four all went Over the total and the oddsmakers couldn't set the O/U lines high enough as all of the games saw at least 231 total pts scored, three of them seeing 245 or more scored! The O/U line here seems like "child's play" in comparison. 

Now neither squad is necessarily at full strength or similar to what they were in LY's Finals. Golden State won't have Steph Curry, who has been out since early in the month, but they have the luxury of still having Kevin Durant (not to mention Draymond Green and Klay Thompson). I'm going on the record here and guaranteeing the Warriors will shoot better here than they did Saturday when they were held to a season-low 81 points by Denver, which included 3 from 27 from three-point range. Cleveland has given up 112+ points in four of its last six games and is allowing a 49.1 FG% its last five. Golden State averages 115 PPG and shoots better than 50% from the field. Not to be outdone, the Cavs average 111.3 PPG, have made at least 10 three-pointers in 22 straight games and last failed to top 100 pts all the way back on October 29th. 8* Over Cavs/Warriors

10* Fresno State (8:30 ET): When you talk about this year's biggest "surprise" teams, the name Fresno State simply must be on your short list. In the 1st year under HC Jeff Tedford (remember him?), the Bulldogs improved from 1-11 to 9-4 SU, making it the best turnaround job in the entire country. They won a division (MWC West) that was supposed to be San Diego State's for the taking and played Boise State very tough in the Conference Championship Game (I had 'em plus the points). It's been a LONG time since FSU won a bowl game (2007), so they will be highly motivated, something that I'm not sure will be the case on the Houston side. Also, Fresno State is no stranger to making this trip to the Island as they played here during the regular season. 

Houston is a program two years removed from upsetting Florida State in the Peach Bowl. They did not fare well in LY's bowl game, a 34-10 loss to San Diego State in Las Vegas. Now in their first year under the direction of Major Applewhite (Tom Herman bolted for Texas), they'll again have to play through some coaching turbulence as OC Brian Johnson has left for the same gig at Florida. Applewhite was previously the OC under Herman, so that may not matter much, but it's certainly not a positive. While the Cougars did upset USF during the regular season, they also suffered outright losses to both Tulsa and Tulane. We've seen teams unaccustomed to making the trip to Hawaii struggle in the bowl game before (Middle Tenn LY, Cincy two years ago). I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen to UH here.

Fresno State won on this field, 31-21, as 9.5-pt favorites just last month. That started a four-game ATS win streak to end the regular season. Overall, this Bulldogs team was tied (w/ Iowa State) for the best ATS record in the country at 10-2-1. I was pretty shocked to see Houston scored more than 28 pts only four times in the reg season. Fresno State has a top 10 defense nationally in scoring, allowing just 17.2 PPG. (They rank 9th). Three of the teams above them are in the College Football Playoffs, plus you have the likes of Wisconsin, Penn State and Washington. So this is a very good defense, the more motivated side and a team more accustomed to venue. 10* Fresno State

8* NY Giants (4:25 ET): These are two bad teams that I wouldn't want to lay points with, so the Cardinals are the ones to be faded this week, simply by default. Arizona is 4-9-1 ATS overall and is just 1-3 SU when favored, winning those games by an average of just one point per game. This is an offense that has not topped 16 pts in three consecutive games and is now being piloted by QB Drew Stanton again. Stanton was the starter for two games before spraining his knee back in Week 12. According to HC Bruce Arians, Stanton's knee "isn't completely recovered" and "he's still in a fair amount of pain." That should tell you all you need to know about Blaine Gabbert, who started the previous five games.

The Cards were able to win two of those five games w/ Gabbert as the starter, both wins at home, those being somewhat shocking upsets of Jacksonville and Tennessee. But they have failed to gain even 300 total yds in B2B games and haven't scored a touchdown in 10 quarters! So again, not sure why you'd want to lay points with this team right now. All they've put on the scoreboard the last two weeks is nine Phil Dawson field goals. Defensively, they've been good. But the Giants' offense finally showed some life last week w/ a 29-point effort against the Eagles. It was their most points scored in any game the L2 seasons and they also gained a season-high 504 yards!

Now this season has obviously been a disaster for the G-Men. Even I, who predicted big-time regression from them at the start of the season, could not have envisioned things would be this bad. HC Ben McAdoo was fired for his atrocious handling of QB Eli Manning, who is probably playing for pride at this point. Going back to the numbers last week, we saw what he's still capable of doing. With McAdoo gone, the team can at least play loose. Also, NY is pretty much "locked" into the #2 draft position next Spring. So, a win wouldn't necessarily "screw things up" either. While they're 0-3 SU and ATS as favorites, the Giants are a more respectable 6-5 ATS getting points this season. They're also 4-3 ATS on the road as opposed to 2-5 ATS at home. This one just boils down to the fact I don't see why you'd lay points w/ Arizona, who has not been favored since Week 9. 8* NY Giants

8* Seattle (4:25 ET): Since I became a professional handicapper (back in 2011), I'm not sure if there's been a single instance of "Seahawks stock" being any lower than it is right now. A number of injuries, primarily on the defensive side of the ball, was going to make qualifying for the playoffs a sixth straight time a "tall order." But last week's humiliation at the hands of the Rams (lost 42-7 at HOME) all but ended that aspiration. Now Russell Wilson and company have to hit the road to face a fellow 8-6 team, one that has renewed optimism due to the return of RB Ezekiel Elliott. That team is of course the Cowboys, who have now won three straight after being "left for dead" themselves on Thanksgiving. 

Dallas was fortunate to win last week in Oakland as Raiders QB Derek Carr fumbled through the end zone when it appeared his team was on the verge of going in for the game-winning score. Before that, the Cowboys had beaten the Redskins and Giants, two other "also-rans." I realize this is a "different team" w/ Elliott in the backfield, but they still could be w/o their best offensive lineman (Tyron Smith) and as we saw in the Atlanta game last month, that's a very big deal. Even w/ Elliott back and the Seahawks hurting, this game represents the Cowboys' toughest test since getting clobbered by the Chargers on Thanksgiving. When facing a team that has a winning record, in the second half of the season, America's Team is just 2-9 ATS the previous three seasons. 

I view this as a GREAT "buy low" spot on Seattle. First off, Wilson is 13-5-1 ATS as an underdog in his career. The L3 weeks have seen the Seahawks play the Eagles, Jaguars and Rams, who I - collectively - have rated as the top three teams in the league. It's been a much more challenging set of games than what the Cowboys faced as none of their previous three opponents rank inside my top 19. It's rare to find Seattle coming in off B2B losses, but they're 2-0 SU/ATS in that situation the L3 seasons. Furthermore, underdogs of three points or more, that are off a loss by 35+ points, have cashed in at an extraordinary 72.5% rate (37-14-2 ATS). Dallas is only 3-4 SU and ATS at home this season and 21-33-2 ATS laying points to fellow NFC foes. 8* Seattle

8* Miami (1:00 ET): The Chiefs recorded a huge win last Saturday, beating the Chargers 30-13 at home. That all but assures they're going to win the AFC West for a second consecutive year (barring them losing both of their remaining games and LA winning theirs). So, in essence, we've got a bit of a "flat spot" on our hands this week. While the narrative here will center around "KC being back on track," all they've done is win B2B home games against the division. It will be easy for them to overlook the Dolphins this week and I feel that taking the points is the way to go here. The Chiefs are only outscoring opponents by roughly four points per game this season and have not been favored by this many point at any other point this season.

In fact, the Chiefs are 0-2 ATS the L3 seasons as DD favorites. This team simply isn't built to blow teams out, even though they have won by double digits each of the last two weeks. But again, keep in mind those were familiar foes they were playing for the second time this season. Miami is a team they have not seen since 2014 and that was a different Dolphins' regime. There are also a number of players on the Chiefs' roster battling an illness this week. The list includes LB Justin Houston, TE Travis Kelce and LT Eric Fisher. All have missed practice time this week and even if any/all play Sunday, they likely won't be 100 percent. 

Miami still does have an outside shot at the playoffs, so don't expect them to go down easily here. They must win both remaining games and hope for some help. It's a long shot, but again, expect effort this week after a poor showing in Buffalo. Remember we're less than two weeks removed from them upsetting the Patriots! There are two other factors that have me believing the Dolphins keep this game close. One is that the weather forecast calls for high winds, meaning a low-scoring game is a very real possibility. Two, the Chiefs are 0-6-1 ATS their last seven games hosting a sub-.500 foe. They were favored by at least six points (as they are here) in all seven contests. My best guess for this one is that KC wins a very close game. 8* Miami 

10* NY Jets (1:00 ET): A Chargers resurgence is something that I'd been calling for the better part of the last two seasons. But I have to admit; once they started 0-4 this year, I'd pretty much given up all hope. The inability to stay healthy, play turnover free football or win close games kept dooming them and thus when they were 3-6 SU, most (myself included) considered them a mere afterthought. But then they won four straight games - three of them by 17 pts or more - to get back into the playoff hunt. It was "put up or shut up" time last Saturday in Kansas City as LA had a chance to take over first place in the AFC West. One of the (several) reasons I laid off there was the Chiefs were simply a stronger opponent than what the Chargers had faced recently. Sure enough, the Bolts lost 30-13 and their playoff hopes are now on "life support."

The Chargers are basically looking at just the Wild Card at this point. They'll obviously need some help to get it as Baltimore has an easy schedule, and thus is likely to claim one of the two WC's. Tennessee is a game up, but has two difficult home games to play. The Chargers have the tiebreak (head to head) over a Bills team they crushed in the "ill-fated" Nathan Peterman start. Best case; LA wins out and somehow ends up in a 9-7 tie w/ Buffalo for the final spot. But you have to wonder about the psyche of the team after last week's humbling at the hands of the Chiefs (8th straight loss to KC). This is also an early start time for the West Coast team and they won't have TE Hunter Henry (done for year), one of QB Philip Rivers' favorite targets. RB Austin Ekeler, injured last week, is dealing w/ a broken hand. On the defensive side of the ball, they will be w/o MLB Denzel Perryman and DT Corey Liuget. Special teams are also still a major concern here as the kicking game has made a league-low 70.4% of its FG attempts this season. 

The Jets have already exceeded their projected win total for the season and have been competitive here at home. Their record at MetLife Stadium is 4-3 SU and that includes a win over the same Chiefs team that has beaten LA twice. None of the three home losses have been by more than eight points. Of course, Bryce Petty is the QB of Gang Green now, but that didn't stop them from cashing for me last week (at New Orleans!). To me, if the Chargers are to win this game, it will be close (something they are due to do). The Jets are only being outscored by 4 PPG for the year. 10* NY Jets

10* Under Bucks/Hornets (7:05 ET): This is the second leg of a home and home between these two teams. My worst fears concerning Charlotte were confirmed last night (they were my 10* play of the week!) as they (again!) failed to hold a lead and had to settle for a 'push', losing by five. Milwaukee scored the game's final nine points. Note that result doesn't even add to the Hornets' atrocious 0-13 SU record in games decided by THREE points or less the L2 seasons. Also note that the game just barely snuck Over the total (by 4 pts over closing line), the seventh straight Bucks game to do so! The Over is now 9-0-1 in Bucks games this month. But familiarity not only breeds contempt, it can also breed an Under and that's what will happen here. 

Charlotte had the lead going into the fourth quarter last night, but scored only 19 pts in the final 12 minutes. That was despite losing Dwight Howard to a finger injury just two minutes into the game. But the real blow came in the final two minutes when Kemba Walker left (injury undisclosed) and the Hornets never scored again. (How cursed is this team?). Now there's a chance that neither Howard nor Walker play and that would obviously be a massive blow to a team already playing w/o Cody Zeller. The Hornets shot 46.2% from three-point range yday (12 of 26), a number that would be difficult to duplicate even if Walker played tonight. The team is 4-1 Under this season when playing in the second game of a back to back.

Milwaukee is not a great defensive team by any means, but last night's effort was their best (in terms of points allowed) in nearly two weeks. Obviously, if Howard, Walker or both did not play here, it would be a huge boost. Charlotte does not shoot the ball well to begin with (43.7 FG%) and would be totally lost w/o Walker, who had 32 pts last night. So, defensively, I think the Bucks are going to be just fine tonight. What about the offense? Well, playing w/o rest works against them too as it was basically three players - Antetokounmpo, Middleton and Bledsoe - carrying the load last night. That trio combined for 78 pts and had 22 of the team's 26 in the 4Q. Asking for anywhere close to a repeat of that seems like a 'tall order.' Milwaukee's Over streak ends here. 10* Under Bucks/Hornets

10* Over Blackhawks/Devils (7:05 ET): Had I told you two months ago that New Jersey would have more points going into X-Mas than did Chicago, you likely would have had me committed. But that's the reality, no matter what the final result of this game ends up being. The Devils, winners of three straight, may not be a pretty group. However, they've improved immensely on the offensive end (10th in goals per game) and that's why they currently find themselves in second place in the very congested Metro. Chicago is right behind them in scoring (11th) and I suspect we'll start to see them move up slightly the Central pecking order in the New Year. They'd won five straight before getting shutout on Thursday. Take the Over. 

After allowing four or more goals the previous game, we typically see the Blackhawks bounce back on the defensive end as they are 7-1 Under the next game. But, at the same time, it's rare to see this team shutout. In fact, Thursday was just the second time it had happened all season! (The first, at home vs. Montreal, was back on November 5th). Now this is a team that ranks 5th in goals against (4th in penalty killing) and has the 28th ranked power play. The Under is 7-1-1 in their nine games this month. But I expect a team that is tied for the league lead in shots per game (34.9) to find the back of the net MULTIPLE times tonight. The Over is 3-1 in Chicago games this season if they were held to 1 goal or less last game.

As for New Jersey, they have totaled 14 goals during the three-game win streak and four or more in four of the last five games. The Over is 6-1 their last seven contests. This is a very different Devils' club than what we'd been accustomed to seeing in the last few seasons as those were "grind it out" type teams that lost more than they won. But there was nothing close to "grinding it out" the last time these teams met as they combined for 12 goals (7-5 Devils' win) and 82 shots. Chicago's Corey Crawford was chased after giving up six goals on 25 shots. There were six goals total scored in the first period alone of that contest. New Jersey has now scored at least three goals in 20 games this season, well above LY's pace when they did so only 29 times. 10* Over Blackhawks/Devils

8* Toledo (7:00 ET): This would be a rare bowl rematch from the previous year as Toledo, now the favorite, takes on Appalachian State. The two schools met in LY's Camellia Bowl w/ App State prevailing 31-28 in what was a very even game. Four times the Mountaineers scored a TD, only to be answered by Toledo doing the same. It wasn't until a FG w/ just over five minutes remaining that they took the lead for good. This year saw Toledo finally capture that elusive MAC Championship (1st since '04) while App State had to settle for sharing first place in the Sun Belt (where there is no Champ Game). As I mentioned earlier, the Rockets are the favorite this year as the teams line up in the Dollar General Bowl in Mobile, AL.

Being the underdog has not suited Appalachian State well recently. They are 0-6 straight up in such games the L3 seasons. Twice they were getting points this season and both times they were a trend call to pull the upset. Both times, they (obviously) failed. One was the season opener against Georgia, the other at home vs. Wake Forest. Toledo might not be as good as either of those two side (obviously not as strong as Georgia), but they are an 11-win outfit that is superior to the vast majority of App State opponents this year. Interestingly, the Mountaineers avoided both of the other top teams in the SBC, those being Troy and Arkansas State. As I've mentioned in past analysis this bowl season, the SBC was really weak this year beyond the top three. Of note is that ASU scored only 10 and 19 pts the two games in which they were dogs. 

Toledo's offense is very strong, led by QB Logan Woodside, who was the only signal caller in the nation besides Heisman winner Baker Mayfield to throw for 25+ TD passes w/ fewer than eight interceptions (28-5 ratio). He finished the reg season w/ 3,758 yds passing as the Rockets averaged 11th nationally in scoring (39.2 PPG) and 8th in total (509.9 YPG) offense. They will be the best unit on the field Saturday night. While App State lost to the likes of UMass and LA Monroe (two bad teams), Toledo's only two losses were to Ohio U and Miami, both on the road. Turnovers were the story in both losses. Assuming the Rockets can protect the ball here (had zero TO's LY vs. App State), then they should win going away. 8* Toledo

8* Under Colts/Ravens (4:30 ET): Coming in at 8-6 SU w/ two weeks to go in the regular season, Baltimore has to be feeling pretty good right now about its chances of returning to the playoffs after a two-year hiatus. They finish w/ two bad teams, these Colts and the Bengals (who are playing for a lame duck coach), and both games are at home. History suggests that the Ravens will NOT lose this game as they are 25-0 straight up in franchise history as a double digit favorite! But they're only 13-12 ATS in those same games and the price is especially high here. They may very well cover, but the Under is a better looking play to me w/ the key being I don't expect Indianapolis to score very many points here. 

The Colts should already be thinking about next year. Andrew Luck not playing at all doomed them from the start here in 2017 and there's a good chance HC Chuck Pagano might be relieved of his duties at season's end. While the Colts have managed three wins, they are probably the second worst team in all of football (ahead of the Browns, obviously) as those wins came at the expense of Cleveland, San Francisco (pre-Jimmy G) and Houston (post-DeShaun Watson). The last six games have all stayed Under for them w/ the offense never topping 20 points. In the last five games, all losses, they have not broken 17 points. In the last three, they've averaged a measley 10.0 points and 248 yards per game. Four of the last five weeks, they have not even gained 300 total yards. So, yes, this is a very bad team and QB Jacoby Brissett (who looks lost at times) knowns he's just "keeping the seat warm" for Luck's impending return next season. Brissett has thrown only 11 TD passes this year and has been sacked 49 times. He figures to fare poorly against this Ravens defense, which leads the league in turnover margin (+17). 

The Ravens may have scored 23+ points in every game since the bye and appear to be peaking at the right time. But, through the years, they've had some strange struggles w/ the Colts. They've beaten them just twice since 2002 and are just 1-9 ATS the L10 head to head matchups. But this is obviously one of the worst editions of Colts football they will have faced during that time (31st in total offense) and simply put, I expect the Ravens' defense to dominate this game. They lead the league in sacks, so Brissett is in major trouble, plus they've allowed an average of just 16.4 PPG at home in December under HC Harbaugh. There's also the strange trend that has seen these teams go Under in six straight and 10 of the last 11 matchups! Baltimore's scoring has been aided by multiple defensive scores the last five games (had another last week) and while that's a real possibility again here, I just don't see Indy scoring very much. For the year, the Ravens are still only gaining 303.6 YPG. 8* Under Colts/Ravens

10* North Carolina (1:30 ET): This is a case of "wrong place, wrong time" for Ohio State on Saturday afternoon in New Orleans, as part of the CBS Sports Classic. North Carolina is off a humiliating 79-75 loss to Wofford at home on Wednesday and I suspect will be "out for blood" as a result. Despite that embarrassment, I think it's still fair to consider the Tar Heels to be one of the top 10 teams in the country. They come into today WAY undervalued against an Ohio State team that has a similar record (10-3 SU) but is still not even in my top 40. The Buckeyes have played only one "true" road game so far, and while it was a very impressive win (83-58 over Wisconsin!), it was a conference game. Lay the points here in a "get well spot" for Roy Williams' team.

The last time UNC lost B2B games was February of 2016. Prior to the shocker vs. Wofford, their only other loss was to #2 Michigan State and they immediately responded w/ a double digit win over another Big 10 squad, that being Michigan. Making the Wofford loss all the more perplexing is the fact UNC attempted a season-high 38 free throws in that game, even making 28. They'd won 23 straight in Chapel Hill previously, but couldn't make a shot Wednesday as they were limited to 36.4% shooting for the game. Wofford, who was picked to finish SIXTH in the SoCon, was a 25.5-pt dog and led the entire second half. Simply put, you won't see a more shocking upset the rest of this College Basketball season. Remember though; it was Sunday where I cashed these Tar Heels in an impressive road win over Tennessee. 

Ohio State has played only one ranked team all season and that game did not go well as they were trounced by Gonzaga, 86-59. Gonzaga is of course the team that lost to UNC in last April's National Champ Game. The Buckeyes are only 8-15 straight up, all-time, against top five foes. They have largely feasted on a weak non-conf schedule w/ most of the games taking place in Columbus. I'd say hosting William & Mary, Appalachian State and The Citadel (OSU's last three opponents) is hardly "good primer" for this nationally televised matchup. The Bucks are just 2-7 ATS their last nine neutral court games while UNC is 6-1 ATS laying between 6.5 and 9 pts at a neutral setting. 10* North Carolina

INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY.... PLEASE DISREGARD! 

10* South Florida (12:00 ET): I realize that there's a legit question of motivation on the side of USF, who can't be too thrilled about a return trip to the Birmingham Bowl given that they came into this season w/ thoughts of crashing the "New Year's Six" party. They only lost twice, one of those coming in what was quite possibly the "Game of the Year" in College Football, to unbeaten UCF. (Ironically, that 49-42 result enabled UCF to usurp USF's dreams and go on to play in the Peach Bowl vs. Auburn). Regardless though, on paper, the Bulls should have little difficulty w/ a pedestrian 6-6 Texas Tech squad that may just "be happy to be here" after upsetting Texas in the regular season finale. Lay the short number.

South Florida HC Charlie Strong knows this opponent well from his own time in Texas. His Longhorns teams went 2-1 SU/ATS vs. the Red Raiders, twice scoring 45 pts against them. The offense he brings in this time is far superior than any edition he had in Austin. Led by sensational QB Quinton Flowers, the Bulls averaged 38.3 points per game (15th nationally) and north of 500 YPG. Usually, Texas Tech has the offensive edge over its opponents, but that is NOT the case here. In fact, over their last three games, the Red Raiders averaged just 22.7 points per game and 4.9 yards per play. Defensively, the Bulls have the edge as well. They allow just 22.5 PPG, as opposed to 31.7 for Texas Tech. Granted, you have to factor in that Texas Tech played the more challenging schedule, but still, the stats are slanted far enough in USF's direction that I'm willing to overlook that. 

This is just the third bowl in five seasons for TT under Kliff Kingsbury. Many in Lubbock felt Kingsbury was on the proverbial "hot seat" coming into 2017 as he was off a 5-7 SU season and projected to finish as low as 8th in the 10-team Big XII. As mentioned above, they needed to win their reg season finale (as 7.5-pt dogs at Texas) just to become bowl eligible. Getting back to the question of motivation for USF, I think the opportunity to knock off a Power 5 school is enough for them to "get up" for this game. They're the better team and laying a small number, I expect them to roll. Over the L3 seasons, in games where the line is three points or less, USF is 4-1 SU/ATS while TT is 1-5 both ways. 10* South Florida

8* Harvard (12:00 ET): Credit the Ivy League contingent for taking on a challenging non-conf schedule as Thursday's 74-63 triumph over Boston U marked just the THIRD home game of the season to date! It's now B2B wins for the Crimson, who treated me well w/ an "ugly" 47-45 win over Fordham, all the way back on December 6th. So even though this is their second game in three days, this won't be a tired team as it's also only their second game in 17 days! Now there is some possible attrition here as two players - Bryce Aiken and Robert Baker - are both listed as questionable for this afternoon. Aiken, the team's leading scorer, injured his knee vs. Fordham and would be a big loss if he did not play. (Baker is a reserve whose presence won't matter much). Aiken or not, I like Harvard plus the points in this spot. 

GW snapped a two-game losing streak on Wednesday, but it was close as they only beat New Hampshire (non-board team) by four points. The Colonials even had to rally back from a small halftime deficit just to win the 1st ever meeting between the two schools. The team does hold an impressive upset of Temple (as 11.5-pt dogs) last month, but do not have a win by greater than 11 pts all season. Ironically, that 11-pt victory came against another Ivy League school (Princeton), but since that time GW has not shot the ball well, particularly in the losses to Penn State and Miami (both sub 37% performances). Against New Hampshire, they were actually outshot, allowing the Wildcats to connect on 52% of their field goal attempts. 

Meanwhile, following B2B poor shooting nights against Kentucky and Fordham, Harvard was able to regain its shooting touch by hitting 55.3% of its FG attempts vs. Boston U. Keep in mind that came w/o Aiken, which is why I'm willing to somewhat "roll the dice" here w/ the Crimson. The team's five starters made only 10 baskets against Boston U, a number which will certainly go up here, with or w/o Aiken. That will counteract any regression from the reserves, who were sensational (16 of 28 from the field!) the last game. Over the L3 seasons, Harvard has gone 11-1 ATS in the month of December (light schedule due to exams) while George Washington is 16-23 ATS the L39x it has been a favorite. 8* Harvard

10* Over Xavier/Northern Iowa (9:00 ET): Xavier is a very good basketball team, one that's completely worthy of its top 10 ranking. This, however, will be a tricky spot as they head to Cedar Falls to face an always dangerous (especially in the underdog role) Northern Iowa squad. The Panthers have lost only three times this season and those defeats came at the hands of: North Carolina, Villanova and Iowa State. The last of those occurred on Saturday as perhaps they were pointing towards this game, a rare visit from a Top 10 squad. Of course, you could also make the case Xavier was caught "looking ahead" on Tuesday when they only beat Marshall by four as lofty 19-pt favorites. I see no edge when it comes to playing the side in this matchup, but w/ the way Xavier plays, an Over should be in the cards.

The ninth ranked Musketeers come in averaging 87.7 points per game, which is 14th most in the country. Perhaps we all should have seen that close call vs. Marshall coming as the Thundering Herd happen to be one of the 13 teams averaging more points per game (89.1). Xavier comes in shooting the ball very well (52.2 FG%), which is fourth best nationally. However, defense has been a bit of an issue as in three games away from home, they've given up an average of 78.7 PPG. Now that number is obviously skewed by the Arizona State loss (102-86), but w/ this being only the team's second "true" road game of the year, I'd say there's still legit questions about the defense.

On the other hand, there aren't many questions about Northern Iowa's defense as they're allowing only 59.0 PPG overall and just 50.9 here in Cedar Falls! But, something to keep in mind is that the four teams the Panthers held below 50 pts were all non-board teams. They did give up 86 to North Carolina, who shot 50 percent against them. Iowa State went for 76 on Saturday. Xavier is much more efficient than both of those teams (especially Iowa St), so this may very well be a bad matchup for UNI here. I know many in Cedar Falls were hoping a win here could propel them into the Top 25, but I actually have them rated outside of the Top 80 teams in the country! 10* Over Xavier/Northern Iowa

10* Charlotte (8:05 ET): Things are rapidly falling apart in the "Queen City" where a Hornets team that was due to improve this season simply can't buy a break. Consider for a moment that since the start of last season, this team is 0-13 straight up in games decided by three points or less! (I shouldn't need to tell you that is - by far - the worst such record in the league during that time). Also, injuries continue to take their toll w/ Cody Zeller out indefinitely (just as Nic Batum was getting going) and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist hurt his shin in the last game (listed as probable for tonight though!). The "cherry on top" has to be that HC Steve Clifford is away from the team for an indefinite period due to a "health issue."

Despite everything you just read, however, I'm going in big on the Hornets tonight. Yes, they've lost 11 of 13 w/ Wednesday's 18-pt home loss to Toronto being their worst (in terms of margin) since November 25th. But they'd won their game previous to that one, 109-91 over the Knicks. The road has been unkind to Charlotte this season (2-11 SU), but despite that record they're "only" being outscored by 5.4 points per game. Milwaukee is off an emotional win (here at home) over Cleveland earlier in the week (Tuesday), but continues to play poor defense as they've allowed 115, 115, 115 and 116 pts their last four games. One positive sign for the Hornets was that reserve Jeremy Lamb scored a career-high 32 pts in the game vs. Toronto.

This is the front end of a home and home between the two teams. "It's tough to beat a team two times in a row whether it's back to back like it is this week or within a couple weeks or a month," Bucks wing Khris Middleton said. That was proven true earlier this year when these teams split a pair of matchup in late October/early November, each winning on their home floor. The Hornets didn't have Batum for either matchup, but Kemba Walker scored 26 pts (on 8 of 12 shooting) in the win (126-121). Even though they lost on Wednesday, it was Charlotte's second highest scoring game this month. I believe the Bucks will come out flat tonight and their poor defense will cost them in the end. Note that they've been favored only one time in the last five games and lost that game, at home to Chicago. 10* Charlotte

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Though they picked up two points for themselves their last time out, the Flyers' 4-3 win over the Red Wings on Wednesday hurt me as I had the Under on that game. Philly has been a VERY streaky team this season, at one point losing as many as 10 games in a row (5 came in OT/shootout). But they suddenly "found themselves" on a trip through Western Canada (swept Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver) and have now won seven of eight, six of those wins coming in regulation. Now, it hasn't meant much in the standings as they still are tied for last place in the Metro w/ 37 points. But they're in a lot better position than the last place team in the Atlantic, that being Buffalo, who has only 23 points. The two "cellar dwellars" meet tonight in upstate New York and it's clear the Flyers have the edge.

The Sabres are, objectively speaking, the worst team in the Eastern Conference this year. Their 23 points are seven fewer than the next worst team and as I already mentioned, they'd be 14 pts back of every team in the Metro. Their -42 goal differential is twice as bad as the next worst team (Ottawa at -21). The only team in the league w/ fewer points and a worse goal differential is Arizona. Buffalo is dead last in the league in scoring (2.1 goals per game) and 28th in goals allowed (3.3). Their power play ranks 30th (next to last), converting at only a 12.7% clip. They come into tonight having lost three straight (starting w/ a 2-1 loss at Philly) and despite outshooting the Bruins Tuesday night, the Sabres were still shutout (lost 3-0) for the fourth time in less than a month. 

In that 2-1 loss down in Philly last Thursday, Buffalo managed only 20 shots on goals. Considering the Flyers have a pretty clear edge between the pipes in this matchup (9th in goals allowed), it's not surprising that didn't get the job done. The Sabres have won only three of their past 19 games and all three wins came against "bad" teams.  Over the L5 games, the Flyers have outshot every opponent and allowed an average of just 24.2 shots per game. There are a number of key trends that go against Buffalo here, namely the fact they are just 3-20 SU their L23 revenge spots. They're also just 2-10 SU this season after a game where they scored 1 goal or less. 10* Philadelphia

10* Under Central Michigan/Wyoming (4:00 ET): These programs enter the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on very different trajectories. Central Michigan won and covered its final five regular season games while Wyoming dropped its last two games, one of them to an awful San Jose State team. The big story here centers around Cowboys QB Josh Allen, a likely 1st round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft (overrated prospect, in my opinion). Whether or not Allen actually plays is irrelevant to me as I see a Wyoming offense that is very bad with or without him (atrocious w/o him!), yet the defense is what could make this a win for the Mountain West contingent. CMU rang up some big point totals on bad defenses down the stretch in the regular season. Take the Under. 

Now, to be fair to Allen, he lost a lot of his supporting cast to the NFL this season. Four starters from LY's offense are now playing on Sunday's and approximately 80 percent of LY's rushing and receiving production was lost as well. Thus, even w/ Allen playing most of the way, we have an offense here that didn't even average 300 YPG in the regular season. Allen was absent from the team's final two games and the Cowboys scored a TOTAL of 20 pts in losses to Fresno State and San Jose State. Personally, I don't know why Allen would play here given the shoulder issues and the impending payday he is going to receive. Regardless, Wyoming has gone Under in six straight games and 10 of 12 this year. That's also owed to a defense which allows just 17.8 PPG. 

One edge Wyoming does have over CMU here is they are used to playing in altitude and this game takes place on their side of the country. So, look for the Chippewas' offense to be drastically less productive here than it was down the stretch in the regular season. Also, note that before going Over in those final five games, the Chips had gone Under in five straight. After giving up 55 pts in LY's Bowl loss (to Tulsa), I suspect the CMU defense is going to play with a "chip" on its shoulder (pun intended!). "Anytime you let up that many points you're going to come off (angry)," defensive tackle Chris Kantzavelos told CMUChippewas.com. Both of these defense finished Top 12 nationally in interceptions. Neither offense is very good at running the ball (Wyoming is 119th nationally), so it may prove difficult to move the chains. 10* Under Central Michigan/Wyoming

8* UAB (12:30 ET): Off to the Bahamas we go Friday afternoon where we're likely to find a highly motivated underdog, one that NO ONE could have possibly predicted would be in a bowl game this year. UAB HC Bill Clark just might be the Coach of the Year in College Football as he led a team that didn't even play a single game last season (program was temporarily dropped after 2014) and guided them to a stunning 8-4 SU regular season. Meanwhile, I can't say that Ohio U will be very motivated for this trip. Not only did the Bobcats blow what was a golden opportunity to win the MAC East at the regular season, but they're currently dealing with numerous injuries. I have a ton of respect for the job Frank Solich has done in Athens, but he's only 2-8 straight up in bowl games here. Take the points.

Adding to UAB's motivation here is that they have NEVER won a bowl game in school history. The last and only time they were in one was '04 (Roddy White era!) and they lost the Hawaii Bowl 59-40 to ... Hawaii. Though again "off the mainland," this is a far better matchup for them. The Blazers' one weakness is stopping the run, so lucky for them that OU is likely to be w/o its top two leading rushers for this game, not to mention their leading receiver as well! As you might have guessed, UAB sprung numerous upsets during the reg season as they were 5-2 ATS as dogs, winning four of those games outright. Five of their games were decided by five points or less. All things considered, they did have some head-scratching losses, including one to Ball State (a MAC team). But they closed by winning four of five, the lone loss coming at Florida.

When Ohio beat Toledo 38-10 on November 8th (as 3-pt home underdogs), it appeared as if they were in the drivers' seat to win the MAC East. Unfortunately, they then tanked, losing games at Akron and Buffalo, missing the spread by over 30 pts in those two games. The combination of injuries and disappointment likely take their toll here. Also, don't sleep on the UAB defense, which allows just 24.3 PPG (47th in the country) and only 188 passing yards per game. The MAC traditionally struggles in bowl games and I wouldn't want to lay this many points given the likely disparity in motivation. 8* UAB

8* Gonzaga (10:00 ET): Compared to last season, when they were still unbeaten and on their way to playing for the National Championship, Gonzaga seems a little bit "under the radar" (ranked #12). However, it should be pointed out that the 'Zags were only ranked 7th at this time last year and this year's squad has taken on a slightly more challenging schedule w/ both losses coming to Top 10 teams (at the time), one of them coming in double overtime. While that 2OT loss to Florida may look worse now, their only other defeat came at the hands of #1 Villanova at a neutral setting. The Bulldogs have had to settle for a pair of OT wins themselves, one of them against North Dakota (!) last week, but are off a 30-pt win on Monday. This may only be their 2nd "true" road game of the year tonight, but I like the Zags laying a small number.

San Diego State is the opposition here and they probably can't wait to take the court, given that they've been off for 12 days and last time we saw them, they dropped a stunner (as 16.5-pt chalk) to Cal on this very floor. The Aztecs have just three losses, all of them to Pac 12 schools, and haven't been an underdog since the second game of the year (at Arizona State). However, they don't exactly have any quality wins to speak of, unless you want to count Georgia (I don't!), who I have rated as the 75th best team in the country. Defense remains the calling card here, even w/ Steve Fisher having been succeeded by long-time assistant Brian Dutcher. The Aztecs are holding opponents to 38.6% shooting and 64.2 points per game. The problem here though is Gonzaga averages 91.8 PPG on 51.4% shooting. Few teams shoot the ball better. At the same time, SDSU is only shooting 30.5% themselves from three-point range.

With the five top scorers from LY's team gone, Gonzaga was expected to take a step back this year. The fact they've only lost twice says something positive about this group though and Mark Few's coaching. They blitzed IUPUI on Monday, 101-71, with Killian Tillie scoring a career-high 27 points. In their only other "true" road game thus far, the Zags crushed Washington by 27 points. I'm not sure what the deal was against North Dakota over the weekend (other than they didn't shoot well), but this spread is a bargain. 8* Gonzaga

10* Phoenix (9:05 ET): Both of these teams lost last night, which is par for the course. We haven't even hit the New Year yet (which is when I really start to re-evaluate my preseason projections in NBA), but suffice to say neither the Grizzlies nor Suns will be finding themselves in the playoffs in the Spring. For Phoenix, that's not a shock as they were expected to be one of the worst teams in the league. "True to form," they are 11-22 SU and have the second worst point differential (Kings) overall. Memphis, a team I personally expected to take a step back in 2017-18, has been a disaster ever since PG Mike Conley went down. They actually have a worse record than the Suns (9-22 SU) as they've lost 18 of their last 20 games w/ the two wins coming a month apart and by only four points total. 

At home here, I believe Phoenix to have the edge and there's actually value on them in this price range. Sure, they're 4-12 SU home record is a league-worst. But note that before losing to the Clippers last night, they'd started their three-game road trip w/ B2B wins, first over Minnesota, then over Dallas. This team has not been favored in a game since 11.19 (at home vs. Chicago) and there is a chance they could close in that role here. They are 7-3 ATS here in December and 5-3 ATS this season playing in the second night of a back to back. Last night, they never led in LA (trailed by 18 at halftime) in an awful shooting night. You have to think they'll play better here against a lesser opponent. 

Last night was also ugly for the Grizz as they scored only 33 pts in the second half on 10 of 44 shooting (yikes!), had 17 turnovers for the game and went 12 of 31 from three-point range. This is among the very worst offensive teams in the league right now and I imagine that w/o Conley, a case could be made that they are the worst on that end of the floor. It's five straight games (and counting?) that they've been held below 100 pts, three of those 87 or less, which is almost unfathomable in today's NBA. They've been just as bad against the spread as they've been straight up since the Conley injury, going 4-15-1 at the pay window. It doesn't matter the opponent; if you don't have to lay points against Memphis right now, then you should jump on the opportunity. 10* Phoenix

8* Over Temple/Florida International (8:00 ET): Initially, Temple looked like "fade material" in this spot. FIU is the program making its return to a bowl for the first time since 2011 while this is Temple's third straight venture into the College postseason. The Owls were also outscored in the regular season and this game is being played in the state of Florida (it is the St. Petersburg Bowl after all). But FIU was also outscored in the reg season and you have the factor that Temple was upset in each of its previous two bowl appearances. So, the soon to be departing seniors should probably be pretty motivated here. Therefore, we're going to turn to the total in this bowl game, a number that has been on the rise since it opened.

The O/U line has risen, probably, in part due to the fact that both of these teams ended their respective regular seasons on Over streaks. Temple has gone Over in five straight (after going Under in their previous six games). FIU has gone Over in four straight and went 8-4 Over in the reg season. In five of its last seven season, including the previous three (all under current Baylor HC Matt Rhule), Temple allowed 20.1 points per game or fewer. This year, that number jumped to 27.7 PPG. They were sure to save their worst defensive efforts for their games against bowl opposition, allowing 45, 26, 31, 20, 43 and 49 pts. That's an average of exactly 29 PPG allowed. Offensively though, the Owls have been able to "pick up the slack." In their last three victories, they've averaged 37.3 PPG.

Not to be outdone, FIU scored 104 pts in its final two reg season games. Their finale was a 63-45 shootout vs. UMass. That was a record-setting win, not just in terms of wins in a single season (8) for the program, but also for total yardage in a game (674). They rolled up 379 yards on the ground w/ SIX touchdowns and were 7 for 7 overall in the red zone, scoring more points than any other game in program history. Defensively though, there are issues. They allow more PPG than Temple and have given up at least 37 pts in three of the previous four games. In half of their games this year, they allowed at least 30 points. 8* Over Temple/Florida International

8* Under Ducks/Islanders (7:05 ET): I realize that the Islanders' dichotomy of goals scored vs. allowed (more often than not) lends itself to an Over call. Their inability to keep the opponent from finding the back of the net certainly cost me their last time out (had 'em) as they fell 6-3 (at home) to Detroit. It was the fourth straight game in which the Over hit and it's now 23-10-1 for the year, not surprising for a club that ranks 2nd overall in goals scored, but dead last (31st) in goals allowed. They're also dead last in penalty killing. Here at home, where the Over is 12-3, their games average a whopping 7.6 goals per. But enough about all that! Tonight, they'll face an Anaheim team that is 29th in the league in goals per game. Take the Under.

The Ducks entered the year as not just a co-favorite (w/ Edmonton) to win the Pacific, but also a Stanley Cup contender as well. But as we now, that division has been "turned upside down" w/ the Kings and expansion Knights leading most of the way. Anaheim is currently fifth, three points back of what would simply be required to make the playoffs and they come into tonight as losers of three in a row. In those three losses, they've given up a total of 12 goals, clearly not a good sign here. Yet, six of their last seven games have still managed to stay Under the total as they last topped three goals in regulation all the way back on November 15th! They are 3-3-4 here in December, thanks to some poor luck in extra time.

Anaheim does have an edge in goaltending in this matchup as John Gibson is likely to get the start. He has a .920 save percentage this season, which ranks in the top 10 of the league. It would of course help if he was able to face less shots per game. Currently, the Ducks are giving up the second highest number of shots per game (35.3) in the league. I realize that this matchup has many aspects you'd look for in an OVER play, but the Ducks' offensive deficiencies plus the fact that they are a perfect 10-0 Under this season after allowing 4+ goals the previous game (remember lost 4-1 to the Rangers Tuesday) has me going the other way. As much as the Isles are an Over team, the Ducks are an Under team. I also have to think the Isles' goaltending is set to improve moving forward. 8* Under Ducks/Islanders

10* LA Lakers (8:05 ET): Playing against the Rockets may seem insane right now, but eventually they'll have to "tail off" as the current run has reached a peak of unsustainability. They come into tonight as winners of 14 straight and 20 of their last 21 overall. With Chris Paul in the lineup, they haven't lost a game all season! But tonight, while the SU result may not be in doubt, the oddsmakers have attached a very high spread for this matchup w/ the Lakers. While still not a "playoff team," the Lakers are much improved this year and will likely end up with a better record than the Clippers by season's end. They've only won two of their last 10 games, but the last two losses came against Cleveland and Golden State (by a combined 11 pts). Take the points here.

When assessing the improvement of the Lakers this year, the easiest factor to identify is defense. Last year, they ranked dead last in the league in efficiency. This year, they are 8th. While the L3 games have seen them allow an average of 116.7 PPG, note that they took Golden State to overtime on Monday (tied 102-102 at the end of regulation) in an inspired effort, the night Kobe Bryant's jersey(s) were retired. The Lakers obviously covered the spread in that game, something they also did vs. Cleveland on the road. Their worst loss over these L10 games did come against Houston (by 23), back on 12.3, but they also shot really poorly in that game (38.1 FG%). That was their worst shooting effort in any game in the last month.

Houston crushed Utah by 21 on Monday, their latest in a long line of blowout victories. Tonight marks their sixth straight home game, so the schedule has definitely been friendly. They are 7-1 SU/ATS the last eight meetings w/ the Lakers, but this is a much better LA team than past years. Two of the Lakers' last three losses have come in OT and they've lost to Golden State twice by a combined six points in the last month. The Rockets eventually HAVE to slow down or have at least one slip up. Don't let Monday's final score vs. the Jazz fool you as Houston actually TRAILED going into the fourth quarter. Prior to that, they'd allowed at least 100 pts in five of six games. I believe the Lakers should easily stay within the number here. 10* LA Lakers

10* Under Red Wings/Flyers (8:05 ET): Detroit got one over on me last night as they went into Brooklyn and beat the Islanders, 6-3 (outscored them 3-0 in third period). It was the second consecutive impressive win for a team that I quite frankly don't think is very good. (They also beat Toronto 3-1 last Friday). But the situation is a lot different tonight than it was Tuesday as there's no ample rest involved. Here, they'll find a Flyers team that is likely still angry after having its six-game win streak snapped on Monday (by the Kings). Truthfully, I don't like either side in this matchup, so to the total we go and I'm on the Under.

The Red Wings rank 25th in the league in goals per game, so last night's six-goal explosion was pretty rare. It was not a season-high, but consider in the four games previous to it, they scored only seven times total. Making the six goal effort all the more improbable was the fact they had only 22 shots on goal last night! If you go back and look at my analysis for the game, I did mention I was a little leery over the Islanders' goaltending situation as they rank 29th in the league in goals allowed. Turns out, I should have put more stock in that. But we can certainly be more confident in a Flyers' club that is 10th in goals allowed. Brian Elliott has started the last nine games in goal and has been more than solid. 

Prior to winning six straight, Philly lost 10 in a row w/ five of those defeats coming in extra time. Before the B2B wins, Detroit had lost 10 of 11. So these are definitely two "streaky" teams. A big reason the Flyers were able to turn things around was the fact they allowed two goals or fewer in all six victories. That changed against the Kings, who scored four times, but that's a much more prolific offense than the one they'll face here. In fact, both of these teams rank in the bottom 10 in goals per game. After being held to one goal or fewer in their previous game, the Flyers are 6-1 Under this season. The Red Wings, not shockingly, are 5-2 Under this year after scoring 4+ in their last game. 10* Under Red Wings/Flyers

8* Louisiana Tech (8:00 ET): It was an "up and down" first day of Bowl games for C-USA's perspective w/ two wins and two losses on Saturday. League champ FAU's result (check Tuesday) is not in yet as of press time. Overall, C-USA sent NINE teams bowling this year, which has to come as a shock to those who don't really pay attention to the league during the regular season. Here, we have a La Tech team that won the West Division LY, but dipped down to 4-4 SU in league play and 6-6 SU overall this season. They had to win their final two regular season games, over UTEP and UTSA (two of C-USA's five NON-bowl teams), just to get here. But the Bulldogs' senior class is 3-0 SU in bowl games (favored every time), so it's easy to like them plus the points here. 

SMU became bowl eligible back in late October, but then sputtered down the stretch, losing three of their final four reg season games. The only win was the finale, against lowly Tulane, while they lost to AAC heavyweights UCF, Navy and Memphis. The big story here is that HC Chad Morris has bolted for the Arkansas job and will be replaced by Sonny Dykes. Running backs coach Jeff Traylor was to serve as the interim here, but decided to follow Morris to Fayatteville. So Dykes is jumping straight into the fire here in the Frisco Bowl. SMU does have an edge in location w/ this game taking place in Frisco and Dykes was previously the HC at La Tech (before leaving for Cal). But those two factors aside, this is a tough spot for Dykes, who has to coach a team he hasn't had much time to learn about (will have been on the job for only NINE days by gameday!).

While La Tech is 3-0 SU in bowls under HC Skip Holtz (Dykes' replacement!), SMU has not been to a bowl since 2012 (when they stunned Fresno St in the Hawaii Bowl, 43-10, as 13-pt underdogs). SMU has the edge offensively in this matchup, but La Tech is clearly better defensively. SMU did win all seven games that they were favored in during the regular season, but was only 4-3 ATS. I just think that the whole coaching situation is going to be a major detriment for the Mustangs. As for La Tech, this game is not a far trip for them either and I think they'll be the more motivated side as they're ecstatic to just be in a bowl. 8* Louisiana Tech

8* Georgetown (7:00 ET): Because so much has been made of just how weak the Hoyas' schedule has been to this point, there's going to be a desire amongst bettors to fade this team, almost blindly, on a game by game basis. Those who chose to do so on Saturday got a huge break w/ OT as Syracuse was able to prevail 86-79 as 5.5-pt chalk, handing G'town its first loss of the season. It's important to note that at no point in regulation were the Orange covering the spread, and in fact they were down by as many as 13 in the second half! It remains to be seen how HC Patrick Ewing deals w/ his first career loss, but my guess is that North Texas isn't likely to put up much of a fight here. Lay the points. 

Yes, Georgetown's schedule has been VERY weak. All but one of their games have been at home as they didn't even bother to play in any holiday tournaments. Their eight wins have come against teams that are currently 24-64 straight up. That being said, they have "taken care of business" against most of these lesser foes. Other than the one "true" road game they played (82-76 win at Richmond), the Hoyas have won every game by at least nine points. Now that still wasn't good enough for the oddsmakers most of the time as there were some huge spreads. But one thing I'm counting on tonight is that G'town won't be shooting 2 for 17 from three-point range. Again, mock the schedule all you want, but the Hoyas had Syracuse beat. 

North Texas is in the middle of a four-game trip that will take them all the way around the country. Last time out (Saturday), they upset San Diego, 86-3 as 10-pt dogs. It was the Mean Green's third consecutive victory, two of those come as dogs. Overall, they've covered their last five games, which is the exact opposite of Georgetown. But, even though they've played plenty of road games, UNT's schedule (save for Oklahoma) hasn't been that impressive either. Note that the road win they pulled off on Saturday was pretty rare. Prior to that, they'd lost seven straight "true" road games. So, what are the chances of them now winning two, back to back? Not good, I'd say and G'town is still outscoring its opponents by 15 PPG this season. There will be plenty of spots to fade the Hoyas later in the season, but this is NOT one of them! 8* Georgetown

10* Over Cavs/Bucks (8:05 ET): In my analysis for Sunday's 10* Game of the Week play (on Cleveland), I was sure to mention that the Cavs needed tremendous improvement on the defensive end before I can start taking them seriously as a threat to beat either the Warriors or Rockets in a potential NBA Finals. Even after winning 18 of their last 19 games, they still only rank 27th in defensive efficiency and the three teams below them are: Atlanta, Phoenix and Sacramento (i.e. the three worst teams in the league). At the same time though, they have scored 100+ points in 24 straight games now and made at least 14 three-pointers in 20 straight. That makes taking them Over the total a pretty easy call for me. 

Surprisingly, however, six of Cleveland's last eight games have stayed Under the total. Sunday at Washington, they really benefited from the Wizards (particularly Bradley Beal going cold in the 4th quarter). Saturday's win was over a Utah team that plays at one of the slowest paces in the entire league. Tonight's matchup w/ Milwaukee will be an entirely different "animal." Not only have the Bucks gone Over in each of their five previous games (7-0-1 L8!), but 8 of their last 10 matchups w/ the Cavs have also gone Over. Now, Cleveland is probably NOT the team Milwaukee wanted to see on the schedule Tuesday as they've dropped three in a row coming in, surrendering exactly 115 pts in each loss. They've allowed at least 100 pts in eight consecutive games.

Making Cleveland's win in D.C. Sunday night look more impressive is the fact they were in the second game of a back to back and w/o Dwyane Wade. Tristan Thompson, working his way back from a calf injury, only played 14 minutes. Wade will play tonight and Thompson's workload should increase. As alluded to earlier, scoring should not be an issue for these Cavaliers as they are averaging 112.0 PPG on the road and rank 3rd in offensive efficiency (behind the Warriors and Rockets) overall. But, defensively, those issues persist as they are allowing 107.1 PPG. Over the L5 games, opponents have shot 46.5% from the field against them. At the same time, Milwaukee opponents are shooting 48.3% the L5 games. The last meeting between these two saw 243 total pts scored (no overtime!) and both shot better than 50% from the floor. 10* Over Cavs/Bucks

10* Auburn (8:00 ET): The need to adapt on the fly is a prerequisite for handicapping any sport and in the case of College Basketball something very interesting has happened over the last several seasons. It seems, almost, as if "mid-majors" are getting TOO MUCH respect in games vs. teams hailing from power conferences. This mainly applies to the 1st weekend of the NCAA Tournament, but it also applies in a situation like this when the mid-major gets to play host and you have a short number. Tempting as it may be to take the home dog, in this instance Auburn happens to be significantly better than Murray State and I simply cannot justify this line being this low. Lay the points! 

Auburn comes into tonight w/ a 9-1 SU record and is averaging an impressive 86.0 PPG. They may not have a ton of impressive wins, but their only loss came on a neutral floor to Temple. That was over a month ago and since then the Tigers have won seven in a row, five by double digits. Now last week brought a pair of close encounters as they beat UAB by five and Middle Tennessee by six. I have Middle Tennesse rated higher than Murray State and the same holds true for Temple. So unlike Murray State, this will NOT be Auburn's most difficult opponent to date tonight. Note that the Tigers held a 17-pt lead at half over MTSU, who wound up shooting 50% from three-point range. Auburn typically shoots far better than 27.6% from behind the arc (what they shot vs. MTSU), so expect improvement in that area here. 

Murray State is a very good offensive team as they are currently making over 50% of their FG attempts for the year. They've outscored opponents by 17.6 points per game, but considering Auburn is +14.3 PPG against a slightly more challenging schedule, the Racers' point differential isn't all that impressive. Murray State's only loss came at St. Louis, exactly one week ago, before bouncing back w/ a 100-pt effort against Marist over the weekend. That performance is what likely has the Racers overvalued here as there's simply no way they are going to shoot 62.5% from the field again, especially against a taller and longer opponent. Also, Auburn has won its last four "true" non-conf roadies. 10* Auburn

6* NY Islanders (7:05 ET): Both of these teams come in off impressive victories. The Isles beat the Kings on Saturday, 4-3, right here in NY. Detroit beat old rival Toronto, 3-1, also at home. But the bottom line is that when you look at how each club was playing PRIOR to that last game, the stories are simply not the same. The Red Wings, a team that would have been a lot worse LY were it not for a perfect 9-0 record in shootouts, had dropped 10 of 11 games before that one win over the Leafs. Interestingly (but not surprising) is that their record in extra time has been very different this year as they're 0-6 in OT (excluding shootouts where they're 2-1). New York is the better team here, which is reflected in the ML and I expect them to win.

Five of those six overtimes losses for the Red Wings occurred during the 1-10 slide. They'd blown third period leads and lost in OT each of the two games previous to beating Toronto. Unfortunately though, you'd have to go all the way back to mid-November to find the last time this team won B2B games. Going back to Nov 15, they've topped three goals in regulation just one time, a 5-1 win over Winnipeg on 12.5. That game was on home ice, however. Their last road win came all the way back on Nov 6 at Vancouver. Before beating the Leafs, the Wings were just 4-9 SU when facing a foe that has a winning record. The goaltending here has been pretty awful with Jimmy Howard and Petr Mrazek combining for an .899 save percentage. The Wings might be well-rested (last played Friday), but they're not good.

The Islanders, meanwhile, are currently holding down what would be the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. They are 2nd in goals scored w/ an average of 3.5 per game. So we should expect them to take advantage of Detroit's weak goaltending. Now the goals allowed side of the ledger has also been an issue for the Isles, however, this is a game where they simply should be able to "outscore" the opponent. Detroit ranks 26th in the league in goals per game. Playing w/ exactly two days of rest this season, the club has gone 6-3 SU. Another key is this being a home game as the Isles are 10-2-2 at the Barclays Center, averaging an impressive 4.3 goals per game. 6* NY Islanders

10* Akron (7:00 ET): This spread is the largest for any bowl in the past two decades and is simply begging for a call to take the points. That's what I'll do here, even though Akron is pretty clearly "up against it," playing a "true" road game in Boca Raton. The Zips were the surprise winners of the MAC East this year and finished 7-6 SU despite being outscored and outgained rather severely against FBS competition. But a late season upset over Ohio enabled them to win their division and then they "backdoored" Toledo in the MAC Championship Game, losing by only 17 as 20.5-pt pups. I see, at worst, a similar situation presenting itself here as the underdog should be highly motivated by the "disrespect card." 

FAU made my short list for most improved teams in the country this year as Lane Kiffin walked into a great situation as he was inheriting the most experienced team in the entire country! Also, the Owls were bound to improve upon a 1-4 SU record in close games. However, close games were not the reason this team made an unforseeable quantum leap in 2017 as they simply rolled the rest of Conference USA, going 9-0 (including Title Game) while outscoring opponents by 200 points. However, I worry about overconfidence from the Owls coming into this game as they really aren't accustomed to being this level of favorite. It wasn't until the final three games of the regular season that they were even asked to lay double digits! This is their second largest spread of the season, topped only by a matchup w/ Charlotte, who is one of the worst teams in the country.

Kato Nelson, who took over late in the season for Thomas Woodson, will remain Akron's starting QB for this bowl game. Nelson played well enough down the stretch to justify the decision. But it's an opportunistic Akron defense that has me more intrigued as this group ranked 2nd in interceptions and #16 in turnover margin. They also are stingy in the red zone, ranking 25th in points allowed per trip. The Zips were 6-3 ATS as underdogs in the regular season and even w/ the homefield edge, I feel FAU should be closer to a two TD favorite rather than three. 10* Akron

8* Pittsburgh (9:05 ET): We last addressed the Penguins' recent struggles when I played them Saturday in what was a clear "get well" spot at league-worst Arizona. Well, the schedule makers remain kind to the reigning Stanley Cup Champs as tonight's visit is to another last place team, Colorado, who happened to be the worst team in the league last year. Like the Arizona matchup, I point to the ML the last time these teams faced off and how it was north of -200 in Pittsburgh's favor. Granted, they suffered a shocking loss to the Avs that day (2-1), but they did outshoot them 40-28 and at this price are a "must play."

Colorado surprisingly played well in the early part of the season as they came into December sporting a respectable 12-9-2 record. But the wheels (or is it skates?) have begun to come off this month w/ the club dropping six of its last nine. They've begun to give up goals in bunches (32 total L8 games) and that's trouble when getting set to face a team like the Penguins. Scoring is down in the Steel City this season, for several reasons, but Saturday saw them Pens score four goals in regulation for the first time in two weeks. Considering the Avs are 27th in the league in goals against, I can see the Pens making it B2B games w/ 4+ goals.

Pittsburgh also allowed just 17 shots against the Coyotes, which may have been more impressive than them scoring four times. Over its last five games, the Pens are allowing an average of just 24.4 shots per game, which obviously makes it very difficult for your opponent to win. Colorado is allowing 34.6 shots per game its last five contests. Another key here is Pittsburgh still ranks 4th in the league on the power play while Colorado is middle of the road in penalty killing. Though the final score was 6-5 Saturday vs. the Lightning (lost), the Avs twice trailed in that game by four goals. Pittsburgh is 9-4 SU this season after scoring 4+ goals in their previous game. 8* Pittsburgh 

10* Arizona (9:00 ET): Sean Millers' Wildcats certainly expected better than being on the fringes of the Top 25 coming into the season, but the real shocker for this perennial Pac 12 power is that - right now - they're not even being recognized as the best team in their own state. Arizona State (still undefeated) has caught everyone by surprise, though I assure you that the Sun Devils are certainly NOT one of the five best teams in America. In fact, were the two Territorial Cup rivals to play tomorrow, I can say w/ full confidence that Arizona would be the betting favorite. Aside from a poor showing in the Bahamas (where all three losses took place), Miller's team has been just fine and I'm looking for them to role tonight in Tucson. 

Arizona has won five in a row since that ill-fated trip to the Battle 4 Atlantis and many of those wins have been close (three by six pts or less). But that was against some quality competition, better than what they'll face here. Also, on Saturday, they picked up a nice win at New Mexico (Albuquerque is a tough place to pay), by 16 points, as they shot a blistering 64% from the field. Leading scorer Allonzo Trier was right near his average w/ 22 pts and making his first start of the season, Rawle Alkins scored a career-high 26 pts. Alkins being back from injury is huge as it coincides w/ a time where the team's overall depth is hurting due to injuries to a pair of reserves. Against a more formidable opponent, I might be concerned about that. But not here.

North Dakota State has won B2B games, but this is massive jump up in class from last week when they beat Valley City State (non-board team) 101-58. The Bison did play another Pac 12 team (USC) tough earlier in the year, losing by only 10. But they simply lack the firepower to compete here as they're averaging only 64.2 PPG on the road, which is a far cry from the 94.8 PPG Arizona averages at home. NDSU had its own three-game losing streak shortly after Thanksgiving and it included a 34-pt loss at Mississippi State. The Wildcats will - easily - be the toughest team the Bison face all year and I just don't think they're up for the challenge. Over the L3 seasons, the team is only 9-22 ATS in road games and 6-16 ATS as a dog. 10* Arizona

8* Atlanta (8:30 ET): It seems as if no one wants any part of the Buccaneers this week on Monday Night Football, and I can't really blame them. TB was a prime candidate to regress in 2017 and regress they have falling from 9 to (right now) 4 wins. Last year's squad led the league in net upsets (+6) and it's important to recall was only favored in THREE games. This year, they've been favored six times and fared okay (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS), but the underdog role has been quite unkind as they're 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS. This line does seem inflated, but it's a virtual "must win" for the Dirty Birds, who already got a couple gifts yday w/ Seattle and Dallas both losing. The first meeting between these NFC South rivals took place just three weeks ago and saw the Falcons win by two touchdowns. Not enough has changed since then to make me think this one will go any differently. Lay the points. 

Furthermore, Atlanta has had extra time to prepare here as they last played two Thursdays ago when they picked up a huge win, beating New Orleans 20-17 as 2.5-pt home favorites (that line was quite volitaile throught the week). I, fortunately, was on the Falcons that game as they moved to 8-5 SU and maintained control of their playoff destiny. New Orleans and Carolina both won yday, but if Atlanta wins out, then they will repeat as NFC South Champs as they play those two teams the final two weeks. After some midseason struggles, Matt Ryan and company have won four of their last five and the defense has allowed 20 pts or less four times.

Tampa has lost three straight and last week fell "at the gun" (last second FG) at home to Detroit. That result all but ended their season and it's fair to question how motivated the home dog will be here. Aside from a 30-20 win over Miami on 11.19, the Bucs have failed top 21 pts in any of the last seven games. They are averaging only 17.8 PPG at home this year. Even worse, on the defensive end, stud DT Gerald McCoy is out w/ a biceps injury. He led the team in sacks w/ five and the rest of the defense has just 12 on the year. (They rank last overall in sacks). TB's defense had no answers for Julio Jones in that first meeting, allowing him 12 catches for 253 yards. Atlanta's defense just held NO to 306 total yds, including only 50 on the ground. 8* Atlanta

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Somebody break up the Bulls! What was once a "slam dunk" choice for being "worst team in the league," has all of a sudden won five straight (covered six in a row!) and beaten some good teams along the way (Boston, Utah, Milwaukee). Tonight's opponent certainly won't be the toughest they've faced during this "mini-renaissance," but considering Chicago won't go on winning forever, it's an opportune time to fade them. Plus, the spread is basically a non-factor. The 76ers have been trending in the wrong direction the last couple of weeks, going 1-5 SU and ATS their last six games, but this is a good "get well" spot after suffering some close losses, including that 3 OT affair vs. OKC Friday night. 

I anticipate the Sixers battling for one of the final playoff spots in the East the remainder of the year. Remember, it may not even require a .500 SU record to make the postseason in the Eastern Conference. The team started out quite well this year, getting as high as four games above .500. But right now it's fair to call them "average" as they are allowing the same number of points per 100 possessions that they are scoring. Joel Embiid will NOT play here, nor will Trevor Booker, but I still like the Sixers in the spot nevertheless. Remember, they already hold victories over both Golden State and Cleveland. While they haven't fared well off a SU loss as a favorite this season (0-5 ATS!), I suspect that will change here. 

Chicago's brief resurgence has been led by Nikola Mirotic, who apparently has not been "clued in" to the franchise's plan for tanking. Mirotic has averaged 25 points the L3 games, which have seen the Bulls beat the Celtics, Jazz and Bucks. Each team he has guaranteed victory. He's done so again for tonight, but this "gimmick" can only go on for so long. Before winning their last five games, the Bulls had lost 10 in a row, remember. They are still dead last in the league in offensive efficiency and are being outscored by 8.8 pts per 100 possessions. This spread should be bigger. 10* Philadelphia

10* Oakland (8:30 ET): When this game was initially announced as a nationally televised affair, clearly, the schedule-makers had in mind that more would be at stake. But both Dallas and Oakland have essentially been confined to "also-ran" status at this juncture of the season. The Cowboys have been victimized by the Ezekiel Elliott suspension, not to mention some key injuries on both sides of the ball. The Raiders have fallen prey to some good old regression, which I warned their faithful was likely to take hold after a 2016 that saw them go 12-4 SU despite only outscoring opponents by 31 pts. Coming into Sunday night, "America's Team" has posted B2B victories, but within their own division against two inferior foes. I don't agree w/ how this line has moved (early in the week) - at all - and will be taking the points w/ the Silver and Black.

After a well-publicized back & forth, Elliott was officially suspended (six games) before Week 10. That came right at the same time the Cowboys were w/o top offensive lineman Tyron Smith and LB Sean Lee. All those absences took their toll and the team lost its next three, never scoring more than 9 points. But after Thanksgiving, they've bounced back w/ wins over the Redskins & Giants, both times scoring 30 or more. Let's be sure to point out that Dallas had a +6 turnover margin in those two games as well. Also, while you may want to make a case that the "offense is back," I'd be very leery of this defense going against Derek Carr and company. During the three-game losing streak, Dallas allowed nearly 31 PPG. Neither Washington nor the Giants' offense is much to write home about.

Oakland was essentially dominated for the first three quarters LW at Kansas City, before scoring 15 late points to make the game seem closer than it really was. They were outgained 408-268. Coming off their own consecutive victories (both here at home), it was a very disappointing showing against a divisional foe. I will point out though that the Raiders have won their last three home games (remember, they played New England in Mexico City). I'm simply not convinced that the Cowboys should be favored in this spot. Something I've mentioned before, and will reiterate again is the "Circadian advantage" (google it!) that West Coast teams seem to enjoy in these primetime affairs. I feel Oakland still has a more realistic (albeit still unlikely) path to the postseason (by winning the AFC West). This is a "must-win" and they'll show up. 10* Oakland

8* Chicago (7:05 ET): The Central Division is shaping up to be very tough this year (best division in the sport?) and that makes tonight's game between the Blackhawks and Wild pretty important. Chicago has won four in a row, but hasn't made much headway in the division race as their 37 points has them only tied for fifth. Ironically, the team they're tied with is the one they play this evening. Minnesota had lost four in a row themselves going into last night, but lost at home to Edmonton by a score of 3-2. Playing back to back nights is going to be a challenge for this club as they are still w/o their top goaltender Devan Dubnyk (listed as "week to week" w/ a lower body injury), meaning Alex Stalock is likely to be called into duty for the fifth straight game and third time in four nights. That's a heavy workload. 

Compounding the issue Minnesota and Stalock face here is that not only would it be a third start in four nights, but his previous two before that both went into extra time. Again, this is a heavy workload for a netminder not used to playing the majority of the games. While Stalock has played well (.935 save percentage L4 games), I expect that to soon subside. This would seem like a logical spot for that as the Blackhawks come in averaging a whopping 37.0 shots per their L5 games as well as 36.2 for the year here at the "Madhouse on Madison." They've scored a total of 14 goals during their four-game win streak. 

Beating Buffalo, Arizona and Florida (all here on home ice) is something you'd expect Chicago to do. So when they arrived in Winnipeg Thursday, riding a three-game win streak, there wasn't too much of a reason to be excited. But then the 'Hawks beat the Jets, and did so in commanding fashion, 5-1. Note they've been able to engineer this "turnaround" despite being a miserable 1 for 23 on the power play this month. Wait until those goals start coming. The key here though remains between the pipes where Chicago can lean on Corey Crawford, who checks in w/ a 2.15 GAA and .934 save percentage this season. He's posted a 2.39 GAA and .922 save percentage in 23 career games vs. Minnesota. The Wild, meanwhile, either have to turn to Stalock again or Steve Michalek, who has NEVER made a NHL start before. 8* Chicago

10* Cleveland (6:05 ET): The last three games, all SU wins, have nevertheless seen the Cavs fail to cover the spread. However, with one more made basket in each game, or just one more point in the case of the last two, they would be 3-0 ATS! Overall, they're just 2-7 ATS their L9, but all Cleveland fans will want to talk about is the fact the team has lost just ONCE since November 10th, going 17-1 SU in the process. Tonight, a SU win would almost certainly equate to an ATS win as the Cavs are very short road favorites over a Wizards team that has failed to cover four in a row themselves. I know this is the second game of a back to back for Cleveland, but I like them to win big here.

The Cavs still need to improve pretty dramatically on the defensive end for me to buy them as a legit NBA Title contender. Granted, they could still easily win the East, but a 27th place ranking in defensive efficiency won't treat you so well when faced w/ the Warriors or Rockets in a potential NBA Finals matchup. However, those are the only teams that currently rank above Cleveland on the offensive end as last night saw the Cavs shoot better than 50% for a third straight game and they beat a short-handed Utah squad, 109-100. LeBron James is having a great year, even by his standards, and just turned his 60th career triple double last night (third in the last four games!). The team has made at least 10 three-pointers in 19 consecutive games. Tristan Thompson (their best rebounder) is also back in the lineup after missing 19 games. 

While the Cavs continue to lean on LeBron, Washington just got back its main superstar, John Wall. In his second game back from injury, Wall scored 15 in a 100-91 win over the Clippers on Thursday. Washington would seem to have the edge here, with Wall back and having had two days off. But Cleveland has won its last three trips to D.C. and that includes one earlier this year where LeBron scored 57 points. The Cavs have been money-burners as favorites (5-0 ATS a dog!), but this is a number we can work with tonight. The Wizards are just 4-9 ATS on their home floor this season. 10* Cleveland

8* Over Rams/Seahawks (4:05 ET): When we think of these teams, we think "defense," but that may be a misnomer as the Rams' offense has put up the second most points in the NFL, topped by only the Eagles team that beat them last week (in fact, the number of points the Rams lost by - 8 - represents the total difference in pts scored between the two teams). Fantasy players know that Russell Wilson - not Carson Wentz - is the top QB this season. Seattle is also off a loss, and a high-scoring at that, as they fell 30-24 in Jacksonville. This is somewhat of a tough spot for the Seahawks as they flew all the way across the country last week and back. Both teams are down key defensive personnel. So I'm on the Over here. 

Usually, in the second matchup of the year between division foes, I lean towards the Under. There's a familiarity present that typically - but not always - leads to less points being scored. But I don't think that will be the story here. First off, the 1st meeting (in LA) was only a 16-10 final in favor of Seattle. It was a fairly fortunate win for the Seahawks as they were outgained 375-241, but forced five turnovers. It was a very frustrating result from the Rams' offense's perspective. There were four different drives they moved the ball inside the Seattle 25-yard line, only to come away w/ no points. The Seahawks' defense that QB Jared Goff and company will go up against here is much different and not for the better. Already two different "Legion of Boom" members (Sherman, Chancellor) are out and now linebackers Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright may join them on the sidelines. Wagner in particular would be a massive loss.

The Rams' strength on the defensive side of the ball comes against the pass rather than the run. That's good for them b/c Seattle struggles to run and almost entirely relies on Wilson's playmaking. But they get a break in that the Rams are also down a top DB, Kayvon Webster, and already to struggle defend tight ends. That could mean trouble w/ the Russell Wilson-Jimmy Graham combo. With the Rams' offense ranking #2 in points scored league-wide and having scored 67 pts the L2 wks, they should certainly hold up their "end of the bargain" here, especially w/ the Seahawks having allowed 400+ yds in B2B games. As for Seattle, they average 28.0 PPG at home. 8* Over Rams/Seahawks

8* North Carolina (3:00 ET): We have a Top 25 matchup Sunday afternoon in Knoxville w/ Tennessee hosting UNC. However, while the Tar Heels are probably deserving of their current #7 ranking (that's where I have them), I'm not sure I can say the same for the Vols, who to me, are a fringe Top 25 team at best. Now, it's not as if I think Roy Williams' team should be a prohibitive favorite in this spot; it's just that I believe in them winning here. Therefore, with that line of thinking, how could I resist taking them? 

North Carolina certainly comes into this game well-rested. They've been off since December 6th when they drubbed Western Carolina, 104-61 as 32.5-pt favorites. It was their fourth straight win, all of them coming by double digits. The Tar Heels' only loss this year was to Michigan State (at a neutral setting) where they shot an abysmal 24.6% from the floor. Despite that game, they still come in averaging an impressive 88.1 PPG, which is 15th most in the country. UNC is one of only seven teams in the country to rank in the Top 20 in offensive/defensive efficiency at KenPom. They're one of only four to rank in the Top 15 in both categories (11/14), joining the likes of Villanova, Mich State and Purdue. They have played one "true" road game previously this season and it was a rout (24 pts) of Stanford.

Tennessee also has just one loss and it also came to a team currently ranked in the Top 2, in their case being #1 Villanova. That took place back on November 23rd (three days prior to UNC's only loss) and like the Tar Heels, the Vols have bounced back w/ four consecutive wins. However, three of the four wins were by 10 pts or less, including the last one (against Lipscomb). That game was played last Saturday, so Tennessee isn't quite as well-rested as their counterparts are here. Much will be made of the fact the Vols have won five straight times here in Knoxville when hosting the defending National Champion (no matter who it is). Also, HC Williams is just 4-7 SU in "true" road games if the opponent is ranked. But this is the first time UT is hosting a Top 25 opponent when ranked themselves in seven years. I think the spotlight will be "too bright" for them. 8* North Carolina

8* Green Bay (1:00 ET): The wait is apparently over. Aaron Rodgers will suit up for the Pack this week, ending an eight-week absence. In preparation of this announcement, I jumped on GB early this week (getting them at a nice price), but note this play is still absolutely valid. The Packers may have only gone 3-5 w/o Rodgers in the lineup, but are off B2B wins as well, both coming in overtime. They're now 7-6 SU and one-game back of the final Wild Card in the NFC. With Rodgers back, the likelihood of "running the table" (winning out) obviously increases and if the team does that, then they may improbably make the playoffs. One of the teams they are chasing is who they are playing at this week. Take the points. 

Carolina is 9-4 SU (two games ahead of GB) and off a huge win (here at home) over Minnesota. They blew a 24-13 lead LW, but were able to score the GW TD under two minutes ago. Overall, the Panthers have won five of six (only loss at New Orleans). They've played good defense all season long (allow just 302.1 YPG). But I think it's still important to note that they are only outscoring opponents by an average of less than a field goal per game. The return of Rodgers had to be a bit of a "shock to the system" for Carolina, who I don't think was anticipating facing him (was initially thought to be returning last week). 

Meanwhile, there can be no denying just how much better GB is w/ Rodgers under center. Backup Brett Hundley performed admirably in his absence, but the truth is the Pack were pretty lucky to win the L2 weeks. However, the offense did still score an average of 27 PPG the L3 wks. Rodgers impact will be felt though, primarily by Jordy Nelson, who (not surprisingly) had much better numbers when #12 was in the lineup and not Hundley. Rodgers had a 13-3 TD-INT ratio before going down w/ the collarbone injury. It's as simple here as me putting my faith in Rodgers being a difference maker. 8* Green Bay

8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): A total "hold your nose" & take the points situation. Yes, the Jets are w/o Josh McCown and gained only 100 total yds in a shutout loss to the Broncos last week. They're forced to go w/ Bryce Petty as their starting QB here. My raw power ratings (which respect the Saints greatly!) have this line only at -10.5. Petty is a downgrade from McCown for sure, but I'm not sure one that necessitates almost a full touchdown move on the pointspread. New Orleans finds itself smack dab in the middle of an "Atlanta sandwich" as they lost to the Falcons last week and will rematch w/ them (here at the Superdome) next week. The Jets have been better than all of us thought they'd be this year as they're only being outscored by 3.5 PPG. Take the points.

For years, the Saints were an "all-offense, no defense" team being carried by QB Drew Brees. This year's resurgence has come about primarily due to a vastly improved run game and defense. The "dynamic duo" of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara may find some tough sledding here, however, as the Jets' D ranks #13 against the run. Also, Kamara is coming off a game where he had to leave w/ a concussion. Because they've been off for 10 days (played Thursday last week), Kamara has gotten a full week of practice in, but that last game saw the Saints suffer tremendous attrition as 10 different players left the field due to injury. This team has performed tremendously as a favorite this season, going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS, but this will be the first time they've been asked to lay double digits in the L3 seasons. They're just 5-12 ATS L17 times laying 10 or more pts. 

The Jets haven't been great on the road, but even w/ Petty starting for the 1st time since last year, there's value to be had here. Prior to being shutout last week, the Jets had outgained each of their previous four opponents. Going back to all the injuries the Saints suffered last week, the majority of them were on the defensive side of the ball. They could be w/o as many as three starters here - DE Hendrickson, LB Klein and DB Vaccaro - one at each level. They also could be w/o BOTH starting guards alongside the offensive line. At the very worst, the "backdoor" should be open late in the game and I can see a late Jets score getting the cover. 8* NY Jets

8* Pittsburgh (8:00 ET): Are the Penguins in real trouble? Possibly. The defending Stanley Cup Champs have now lost three in a row to fall below .500 and have a YTD goal differential of -11. Therefore, it shouldn't surprise you to find that they are currently outside the top eight in the Eastern Conference. However, it's a VERY "thin line" between inside (the playoffs) and outside in the Metro where three teams (Columbus, NJ, Washington are all tied for 1st (w/ 41 points) while the two "Wild Card" teams (Rangers, Islanders) have 37 pts, just two more than the Pens. Scoring is way down this year in the Steel City as is the team's save percentage (.914 last year to .896). Also, the team has not been nearly as fortunate in one-score games. Thankfully for tonight, they'll be matched up w/ the worst team in the league. Take 'em.

Arizona has only 19 points this season (7-22-5), has lost five in a row and has been outscored by 42 goals. So, by comparison, Pittsburgh might as well be on their way to another Stanley Cup! The 'Yotes' recent work leaves a lot to be desired as in the L4 games they've been outscored 14-3. They returned home Thursday (from a four-game road trip) and lost 4-1 to Tampa Bay, a game in which they gave up 48 shots on goal. Not only are the Coyotes 30th (2nd worst) in the league in goals per game, but they're 31st in goals allowed. 

While the Penguins do have legitimate issues w/ their roster and have struggled on the road, this is a game they - clearly - should win. They already beat the 'Yotes earlier in the year, 3-1, on home ice. Note they were priced as a -300 favorite in that game! They finished w/ a 37-25 edge in shots and things could have been a lot more lopsided were it not for a 1 for 6 performance on the power play. Having the man advantage remains the Pens' clear strength as they currently rank 4th in the league in that department at 25.6%. While the Pens have lost three straight and four of their last five, all of those games have been decided by exactly one goal. Arizona has not only lost five straight, but eight of nine and five of those losses have been by two goals or more. 8* Pittsburgh

8* LA Clippers (8:05 ET): Teams playing in the second night of a back to back are oft undervalued, especially when on the road, and that's what I'm banking on here as the Clippers look to bounce back from last night's nine point loss in the Nation's Capital. They still covered mind you, as they were 10.5 pt dogs against the Wizards. That makes it four straight covers for the Clips, all against Eastern Conference competition, as they are still trying to remain relevant in the wake of Blake Griffin's season ending injury. They'd won the previous three straight up as well, beating the Wiz (at home), then Toronto (also at home) and Orlando. Tonight's their third road game in four nights, but the opponent is also playing in the second night of a back to back. Take the points. 

Though last night they upset Charlotte, 104-98 as 5.5-pt dogs, Miami still qualifies as a disappointment so far this season, at least to me. This will also be their third game in four nights, by the way. I cashed the Under in last night's game, but note the Heat's defense strangely gets WORSE here at home where they're allowing 106.2 PPG. Overall, they have a losing record here on South Beach (5-7 SU) and are being outscored by more than five points per game. As a result, their home record at the betting window is just 2-8. Also, they've gone 1-5 ATS off a SU win as a dog this year. So maybe the spot is worse for Miami here!

Neither team has won this year when playing in the second night of a back to back this year as Los Angeles is 0-4 (1-3 ATS) and Miami 0-2 (0-2 ATS). So something has to give and that's probably another argument for taking the points. I have these two teams rated dead even in my own personal power rankings, so the number being above three would seem to be incorrect. We all know the Clips have been snakebitten by injuries this season, but Miami is short-handed now too as they're w/o both Hassan Whiteside and Justise Winslow. Last night, the Heat's two leading scorers were Tyler Johnson and Wayne Ellington - two reserve guards. That's not something that can be counted upon every night. I look for Clippers' big man DeAndre Jordan to have a big night here and lead his team to a possible outright upset. 8* LA Clippers

8* Under Middle Tennessee/Arkansas State (8:00 ET): This is our third and final matchup between Conference USA and the Sun Belt on Saturday and wouldn't you know I've got you covered w/ plays on all three! Middle Tennessee was a bit of a disappointment this year, which can be tied to key injuries on the offensive side of the ball, notably ones to QB Brent Stockstill and WR Richie James. They really struggled to score w/o that "dynamic duo," though Stockstill is now back and the offense averaged 36 PPG in the L4 games. (James remains out). But be aware that the return of Stockstill (coach's son) also coincided w/ the easy portion of the Blue Raiders' schedule. Three of the teams they faced during that stretch were: Old Dominion, Charlotte and UTEP, all of whom are among the very worst teams in the country. So I'm not expecting MTSU's offense to have a "banner day" here in the Camellia Bowl. Take the Under. 

Arkansas State blew its chance to finish w/ at least a share of the Sun Belt reg season crown when they lost to Troy in the final game. It was a brutal loss, one that saw them fall victim to multiple non-offensive scores by the Trojans, not to mention ASU had a MASSIVE edge in total yards (606-293!). The Red Wolves gave up the lead w/ only 17 seconds remaining (lost 32-25) after taking it w/ two TDs of their own in the final three minutes. It will be interesting to see how ASU performs here off such a brutal defeat. Will they be motivated or will there be a hangover? There is a chance MTSU comes in as the more motivated side here being that they are looking to snap a four-game bowl losing streak and are playing less than 300 miles from campus (game is in Birmingham, AL). 

These are old SBC foes and the last time they played was five years ago w/ ASU winning 45-0 in the swan song for now Auburn HC Gus Mahlzan. There's been an incredible amt of turnover at the head coaching position here in Jonesboro (4 in 6 years!), but now in his fourth year here, Blake Anderson is a good man for the job as he has the most wins (31) ever in program history for the first four years of a tenure (of course, he could be gone soon too!). Anderson has a top-notch QB to lean on in Justice Hansen, who threw a SBC record 34 TD passes this season. But like Middle Tennessee, be aware of the numbers ASU put up in games vs. non-bowl teams. The Red Wolves' five highest scoring efforts of this season (all 37+ pts) all came against atrocious opponents, such as LA Monroe, Lafayette, Ark Pine-Bluff, Coastal Carolina and GA Southern. Their one win over a bowl opponent came against New Mexico State! Both defenses here allow fewer than 25 PPG and I look for this to be a much lower scoring game than anticipated. 8* Under Middle Tennessee/Arkansas State

10* Oregon (6:00 ET):  Even w/ this being "true" road game #1 for the Ducks, I'm a little perplexed as to the favorite/underdog dynamic here as we have one of the Pac 12's four premier teams going up against a middle of the road group from the Mountain West. I get that Fresno State comes in having won seven in a row, but I don't exactly see a lot of heavyweights on that schedule. Sure, they've been blowing out their competition, but isn't that what you'd expect w/ the likes of Montana State, CS-Bakersfield and Ark Pine-Bluff? Due to covering only one of its previous seven games, Oregon is severely undervalued in this spot.

This will be the third year in a row that these teams are going head to head. Oregon has won each of the last two years, but failed to cover each time. Still though, they were favored by 11.5 in '15 and 15.5 in '16. Granted, both of those games took place in Eugene. But has enough really changed to justify such a swing in the line? I think not. The Ducks did have a bit of trouble around Thanksgiving, dropping three of four games in eight days' time. But they've since bounced back w/ three straight wins, all at home. Wednesday marked the FIFTH time this year that they scored at least 95 pts in a game w/ an 11-pt win over Portland State. They shot 50% overall from the field, including 11 of 27 from three-point range. Another thing to like about this team is they are the best free throw shooting team in the Pac 12. Also, this will be just the second time (this year) the Ducks are dogs. They're 7-3 ATS L10 times taking points.

Lest we forget that Oregon made the Final Four last season. Sure, they are down three starters from that squad, but they remain a top tier team in the top heavy Pac 12. Meanwhile, I'm not even sure that Fresno State will be a legit contender in the Mt West. The Bulldogs aren't a terribly deep team to begin with and are going to be w/o starting guard Jaron Hopkins (back injury). Hopkins is the team's second leading scorer. Furthermore, Johnny McWilliams (a reserve) is questionable w/ an ankle injury. Any kind of foul trouble would be devastating for Fresno State here as the rotation could be down to 6-7 players. Defensively, Oregon is holding its foes to just 37.8% shooting for the year. 10* Oregon 

8* Detroit (4:30 ET): This line has come down during the week, presumably due to the Bears "huge" upset win over the Bengals last week. It was 33-7 in favor of the Monsters of the Midway, who were six-point dogs in what ended up being - easily - their largest margin of victory of the season. Chicago has faceplanted (i.e. lost outright) both of the two times they've been favored in 2017, but are a respectable 6-4 ATS as a dog (w/ four outright wins). However, I do not see them winning B2B games and with the number being so short, I'm going w/ the Lions in a game they almost "have to have." 

The Lions escaped Tampa Bay last week w/ a 27-24 win (won on a last second FG) and enter this game at 7-6 SU, one game behind of the final Wild Card spot. Having already suffered losses to both Carolina and Atlanta, the margin for error is almost non-existant now for the team from the Motor City. Fortunately, they have had Chicago's number in recent seasons. Going back to the 2013 season, they've taken eight of the nine head to head matchups in this NFC North rivalry. That includes a 27-24 win back in Wk 11 where they spotted the Bears a 10-pt lead on the road. Interestingly, the Lions were three-point road favorites that game. The market certainly seems to have overadjusted here considering the switch in homefield advantage. 

Chicago is not a strong offensive team as they average only 16.0 PPG on the road. Last week's effort is not indicative of the entire package here as rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky may very well have the worst group of receivers in the league to throw to. Note that they'd topped 17 pts only once in their previous six contests. Last week was their best performance of the season, easily, so I wouldn't look for them to come close to duplicating it. As for Detroit, they are averaging a healthy 26.8 PPG at home and QB Stafford showed little to no effect from his injured hand LW when he threw for nearly 400 yards. Four receivers had at least 64 yards. The Bears have lost the last six times they've been in a revenge situation, going just 1-4-1 ATS. 8* Detroit

8* UCLA (3:30 ET): Having thankfully rid themselves of the Ball clan, UCLA can now fully concentrate on winning games. Even amidst all the distractions, they've been doing a pretty good job of that so far, compiling a 7-2 SU record, though one of the two losses occurred their last time out, at Michigan last Saturday. Certainly, the Bruins have had ample time to get over that loss and that's huge because today they welcome in perhaps their toughest opponent to date, in #25 Cincinnati. They're catching them at an opportune time though as the Bearcats just put an end to Mississippi State's unbeaten run earlier this week and that came after their own B2B losses, to Xavier and Florida. Take the points here as I smell an "upset."

Thanks to a game vs. Montana (scheduled for 12.6) being cancelled (due to concerns over nearby wildfires), UCLA has only played one game in the L13 days. It was the aforementioned loss to Michigan, which came in OT and saw the Bruins blow a 15-pt second half lead. Turnovers were an issue as they committed 20 of them up in Ann Arbor. Interestingly enough, the Wolverines had just blown a big lead in their previous game and lost to rival Ohio State. Maybe now it's UCLA's time to "flip the script?" What we do know is the Bruins are 31-7 SU their L38 home games, including 5-0 this year w/ a MOV approaching 20 points per game. Also, they are 7-2 SU the L3 seasons when taking the court w/ five or six days rest.

Cincinnati certainly deserves a better ranking than what they currently have, based on the way they played. But as alluded to above, I hate this spot for them. They had to play a tough game during the week while UCLA was off. Miss State was unbeaten in "name only" and not as tough as UCLA will be though. This is just the 2nd "true" road game for the Bearcats, who lost their first (at Xavier) by double digits. Needless to say, this trip out West is a lot longer than the one across town. The depth issue UCLA has is shared on the Cincinnati bench and though many of the names have changed, remember that the Bruins eliminated the Bearcats from LY's NCAA Tournament. 8* UCLA 

8* Western Kentucky (2:30 ET): This was quite the disappointing season down in Bowling Green, KY as the Hilltoppers finished only 6-6 SU, a clear dropoff from LY's team, which finished 11-3 SU and won the C-USA Title. They came into 2017 as favorites to repeat in the East Division, but like everyone else, they fell victim to the resurgence of FAU under Lane Kiffin. WKU lost to FAU, 42-28 (as six-point home underdogs), back on 10.28. That loss begat a second half decline which saw the Hilltoppers lose four of their final five games. But a disappointing season can still be salvaged here w/ a favorable matchup against what may very well be the WORST of all the bowl teams, Georgia State, who was not only outscored over the course of the year (1 of only 7 bowl teams that can say that), but was outscored by almost a full touchdown per game. That's easily the worst scoring differential among all 74 bowl teams. Lay the points here in the Cure Bowl.

This is hardly bowl season's most prestigious game, but Georgia State is probably "happy to be here." That's because they'd produced only ONE season w/ more than three victories going back to 2011. Ironically, that one season (2015) saw them end up here, in the Cure Bowl (played in Orlando), where they lost 27-16 to San Jose State. Most signs were pointing up though in Shawn Elliott's first year here as they played better than LY's 3-9 SU record showed (actually outgained SBC foes!), but the irony is that this Panthers' team is probably NOT as good as its 6-5 SU record. After becoming bowl eligible w/ a 33-30 win at Texas State on 11.11, they promptly were blown out in their final two reg seasons contests, 31-10 by Appalachian State and 24-10 by Idaho (both at home). The GSU offense averages less than 20 PPG (19.7 to be exact) and did not beat a single bowl team in the regular season. They played three (bowl teams) and were outscored 121-20 in those games. The truth about the Sun Belt is that the competition is VERY weak below the top three teams. 

Western Kentucky's inferior record (compared to LY) can be pinned on a couple things. One, they lost HC Jeff Brohm, who cashed in at Purdue. Two, they lost TWO 1300+ yard receivers. But QB Mike Whitie is still more than capable of producing a big day in the passing game as he led all C-USA players w/ an average of 303.3 YPG. Also, despite losing those two quality receivers from last season, the Hilltoppers are arguably deeper at the position this year w/ 11 different wideouts having 24+ catches. This is WKU's fourth consecutive year playing in a bowl and they've won each of the last three. They know what they're doing this time of year. Compare that to a poor Georgia State team that has NEVER won a bowl. WKU is also 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS coming off a bye while Georgia State is 1-7 SU/3-5 ATS in that role. 8* Western Kentucky

10* North Texas (1:00 ET): The Mean Green of North Texas have been pulling upsets all season long, so what's one more? They'll play Troy, a team that defied regression in 2017, in this year's edition of the New Orleans Bowl (played at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome). This is the third year in a row this bowl game matches up teams from C-USA and the Sun Belt w/ the former winning each of the L2 years. That bodes well here for UNT, who pulled three outright upsets during the regular season en route to a Championship Game appearance (lost 41-17 to FAU). I'm impressed by the fact the Mean Green were able to go 9-4 SU/8-5 ATS despite a -8 turnover differential. Defensively, they have their issues, but they also average more points per game than Troy. Take the points in this year's 1st bowl game. 

I said earlier that Troy "defied regression." What I mean by that is LY's team finished 10-3 SU (beat Ohio in the Dollar General Bowl) and became the 1st Sun Belt team to EVER be ranked when they were 8-1 SU w/ the only loss coming to eventual National Champ Clemson. Only two years removed from a 4-win season, you would have thought the Trojans would fail to match LY's season-win total, but instead they've matched it and now have a chance to exceed it! By far, the highlight of the regular season was a stunning 24-21 upset of LSU (in Death Valley!) as 20.5-pt dogs. They clinched a share of the SBC reg season crown (no Conf Title Game) by beating Arkansas State in the finale, 32-25, in Jonesboro. That game was won in the final 17 seconds w/ a TD and subsequent 2-pt conversion. However, be aware that the Trojans were VERY lucky to win that day as they were outgained 606-293! If not for TWO non-offensive scores, they would not even have been in position to "steal" the game late.

Though 9-1 SU as a favorite, Troy has covered only four of those games. Similarly, North Texas won all six times it was favored in the reg season. But, as mentioned before, they were a pretty successful underdog as well. Troy allows only 17.5 PPG, but as we saw in the last game, they can give up plenty of yardage. The North Texas offense comes in averaging 467 yards and 35.9 points per contests. So, getting points, they are an attractive choice. Few even expected HC Seth Littrell to have his team in this position, but after inheriting a 1-11 team from two seasons ago, he's improved the win total in Denton B2B years. Remember the Mean Green actually played in a Bowl last season, despite being 5-7 SU (weren't enough eligible teams!). They covered in the Heart of Dallas Bowl vs. Army, losing only 38-31 as 11-pt pups. Now they look for their 1st bowl win since '13. Led by QB Mason Fine, this is the best offense that UNT has EVER fielded as seven different receivers recorded at least 24 catches. Fine set school records for passing yardage and touchdowns. The dog will score enough to cover here. 10* North Texas

10* Over Sharks/Canucks (10:05 ET): Vancouver wasn't expected to be very good this season and currently finds itself in quite the tailspin as they've lost four in a row while surrendering a "boatload" (20 to be exact!) of goals in the process. In every loss, it's been four or more allowed. Last time out, they hosted Nashville and I was on the Over. The Preds scored seven times on 48 shots, making it a pretty easy winner even though Vancouver scored only once, which is actually pretty "par for the course" for a team that ranks 29th in goals per game. Can San Jose now come in and do what Nashville did Wednesday? Not sure if the Sharks will score seven times, but this should be another high-scoring affair. Take the Over.

The Sharks are currently in the "comfortable" position of third place in the Pacific Division, meaning they'd be a playoff team. The playoffs may still be aways away but given the strength of the Central relative to the Pacific, a top three spot in the latter is where you want to be right now. Plus, you have to imagine Vegas is going to fall off eventually. The Sharks won their last game, 3-2 over Calgary, which was actually one of their lower scoring games recently. They've scored at least three times in regulation four straight games and the game vs. the Flames actually marked the first time in six games that neither the Sharks nor the opponents scored at four times. 

For San Jose, they're in the middle of the "dreaded" three-game trek through Western Canada. (They'll be back in Alberta, Monday, to face Edmonton). Vancouver is a place that has always treated them well as they've won six straight visits here. This will be the first trip this year. They did shut the Canucks out, 5-0 at home, earlier this season. The Sharks have been the beneficiary of some superb goaltending most of this season, but Martin Jones (likely starter tonight) has struggled of late w/ an .860 save percentage his last four outings. San Jose has been a big Under team thus far, but Vancouver is 9-3 Over after allowing 4+ goals its previous game. We should see ample scoring from the Sharks here and the Canucks should score just enough to help push this one Over. 10* Over Sharks/Canucks

analysis soon

10* Boston (7:35 ET): Utah is a team that climbed to "unthinkable heights" in my own personal power rankings (as high as #6 two weeks ago!). But four straight losses, the last one coming against Chicago, have them now trending in the wrong direction and it's fair to wonder if they've peaked. Of course, "losing to Chicago" is not something the Jazz have exclusivity on in this particularly matchup as they face a Boston team that lost to the Bulls earlier in the week - by 23 points! But the Celtics have pretty clearly been a more consistent team than the Jazz through 30 games and not only that, they've been deadly at the pay window (20-8-2 ATS). They're off a win (over Denver) and at home, deserve to be favored by more here. Lay the number.

Prior to losing four in a row, the Jazz had won six straight while going 6-0 ATS in the process. That win streak was snapped w/ a (100-94) loss at Oklahoma City where they at least covered as 8.5-pt pups. But since then, it's been a steady decline. They lost to both Houston and Milwaukee by double digits, then to the lowly Bulls as 5.5-pt road chalk. They actually trailed by as many as 12 points against a team that has just 7 wins all season. Joe Johnson, out since October, is now listed as probable to return tonight, but I'm not sure how much that will matter given the Jazz's road woes. They are just 2-10 SU/4-8 ATS outside of Salt Lake City this year and you can point squarely to defensive decline as the main culprit for the woes. While they allow only 95.1 PPG at home, Utah allows 106.6 PPG on the road. 

Boston is of course #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and also gives up just 98.0 PPG, 2nd in the league behind San Antonio. Of course, this game was to be the first meeting of Gordon Hayward against his former team, but a horrific injury on Opening Night ruined that. But instead of sinking w/o Hayward (big FA signing), the Celtics have thrived, going 24-6 SU and posting the best ATS record in the league. Given the state of their visitor tonight, they look like a "steal" laying this short of a number. 10* Boston

8* Under Heat/Hornets (7:05 ET): In surveying the current landscape in the Eastern Conference, I would have to call these two Southeast Division rivals my two biggest disappointments. Prior to the season, I had both making the playoffs. Right now, I don't believe either will. In the case of Charlotte, it's been an ongoing series of bad luck - whether you want to talk injuries or an inability to win close games. For Miami, I'm still not entirely sure what's gone wrong here. But I did just (successfully) play against them Weds night, hosting Portland, as they lost 102-95 as small favorites. Charlotte, meanwhile, has to be happy w/ the fact it just split a pair of road games w/ OKC and Houston. I have no read on the side here, so it's the total we're going to analyze.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom third in the league in offensive efficiency. That right there should give you an initial glimpse into where I'm going here. The Heat are one of six teams in the league that has gone Under in at least 60% of their games and that includes three straight. Perhaps Wednesday's game staying Under should have come as no surprise considering Portland is the top Under team in the league right now. After scoring 60 pts in the first half, Miami was held to just 35 in the 2H. They are 6-1 Under this season when facing an opponent that has a losing record (Charlotte is 10-17 SU). Road games have seen the Heat go 9-4 Under and that's a trend that has persisted across multiple seasons as the Under is 63-38-2 in all their road games the L3 seasons.

Being that they're in the same division, these teams obviously meet regularly. They have a history of going Under against one another as that's the way 23 of the 30 all-time meetings in Charlotte have gone, including six of the last seven. One thing you can "tip your cap" to Miami for is the fact they hold opponents just under 100 PPG on the road (99.9!). Only San Antonio and Boston have been stingier away from home. Charlotte is not a great shooting team, particularly from distance as they rank 24th in three-point FG's made and percentage. They were just 5 of 20 from behind the arc against Houston. They really miss Cody Zeller, not to mention their HC Steve Clifford. Prior to losing to Portland, the Heat had held their previous two opponents both under 90 pts. That's a real possibility again here as Charlotte has shot below 41.5% from the floor in four of its last six contests. 8* Under Heat/Hornets

10* Under Santa Clara/USC (10:00 ET): It's funny. When I think of these two programs, I can always remember that one "claim to fame" Santa Clara has (a NCAA Tournament upset of Arizona back in 1992!), but never anything memorable for USC during that last 25 years. That being said, there's no debating that the Broncos would gladly trade spots w/ the Trojans' lot in the overall College Basketball landscape. Well, maybe not right now. Southern Cal has lost three in a row, falling to SMU, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. Each of those losses came w/ ample time between games. In fact, this will be just the fourth game for the Trojans in the L18 days. But I'm not about to lay the big number, particularly because they don't shoot the ball well. Take the Under. 

Both teams come into this Thurs night matchup off high-scoring affairs that double as close losses. Santa Clara suffered what could be termed a "slight upset" (were 2-pt favorites) at home to Portland State. It was the second consecutive game where the Broncos let the opponent shoot 56% from the floor. That can't happen a third straight time, right? Not likely, especially w/ USC having yet to shoot even 50% in any game this season. As for the Santa Clara offense, they've run hot and cold all season long. While they have topped 50% in four of their games, they've never done it consecutively and they've also been below 40% in four games as well. If the pattern holds, tonight should be one of the "cold ones."

USC lost by two to Oklahoma its last time out, a result that could have certainly qualified as a "bad beat" for some (were +3). The Trojans trailed by 12 at the half (and by as many as 18 in the 2H) and never led at any point in the game. The loss dropped them from the Top 25 rankings, a place I'm not sure they deserved to be in the first place. SC fell victim to an Oklahoma three-point flurry as the Sooners tied their season-high w/ 15 makes from behind the arc. Good thing they are back home tonight as they allow only 61.2 PPG in LA. Santa Clara averages only 63.7 PPG on the road. 10* Under Santa Clara/USC

10* Under Broncos/Colts (8:25 ET): Thursday Night Football should probably be done away w/ entirely, for a number of reasons, the least of which is matchups such as this one. It's fair to label both the Broncos and Colts among the very worst teams in the league, particularly Indy. Denver at least won last week, though that snapped an eight-game SU and ATS losing skid where the team rarely led, let alone was "in the money" (i.e. covering). However, they did dominate the Jets last week (from start to finish) in a 23-0 shutout. The defense is still good here (top 10) and deserves ALL of the credit for the fact the team is still actually outgaining its opponents over the course of this season. But the offense remains putrid, something that is not exclusive in this matchup. Take the Under here.

Denver still only averages 17.6 points per game as they've cycled through three different starting QB's this season, none of whom appear to be viable options at this level. Trevor Siemian has been the most consistent of the bunch, but that's not saying much. Even in victory last week, the Broncos still only gained 273 total yds of offense and you'd have to go all the way back to Week 1 (when they scored 24 pts) to find the last time they topped last week's 23. Incredibly, the Colts are even more inept offensively as they average only 16.3 PPG, though they were not in a good situation last week playing in the snow at Buffalo (lost 13-7 in OT). They actually did gain 163 yards rushing, but that was on 46 attempts and even though this game is indoors, they won't be gaining as many yds over land this week as the Denver defense is tied for #3 in the league at stopping the run (allowing 89.5 YPG).

With one team shutting out its opponent last week and the other playing in a blizzard, I shouldn't have to tell you that both teams are coming off an Under here. In fact, Indianapolis' last five games have all stayed Under the total. Earlier, I mentioned how the Broncos have not topped 24 points in a game this season. The Colts did twice, but those games came against Cleveland and San Francisco (both winless at the time) early in the year. Having been held to 20 pts or less in five straight games and facing what is still a Top 10 defense, I don't expect much from Jacoby Brissett and company Thursday night. Denver, meanwhile, averages a putrid 13.5 PPG on the road. Fortunately, there is that defense, which allowed just 100 yards TOTAL last week! The week before (vs. Miami) saw the two teams' defenses account for 18 pts of scoring. That won't be happening again. Oddsmakers can't make this O/U low enough, in my estimation. 10* Under Broncos/Colts

10* LA Lakers (8:05 ET): Cleveland has been doing a lot of winning of late (15-1 L16 games!), but until they dramatically improve on the defensive end, it will be difficult to take them seriously as any kind of legit threat to win the Larry O'Brien trophy. They still rank only 27th in defensive efficiency, which is up from early on in the season when they were at the very bottom. As a result, they're still only outscoring foes by about 3.6 points per game on the season. Their home ATS record is a money-burning 2-12 and it's not like they've been beating the "cream of the crop" during this win streak of theirs. If fact, NONE of their last 15 wins have come against a team that is more than one game above .500! So I think the Lakers keep this one closer than expected.

Sticking w/ our defensive theme for a moment, the Lakers have improved dramatically in this area as they are all the way up to eighth in efficiency after ranking dead last a year ago. After opening this four game East Coast swing w/ a pair of wins (over Philly and Charlotte), LA dropped a tough one in New York Tuesday night, losing by only four as 2.5-pt dogs. It was an overtime game. While you'd maybe like to have seen them win that one, note they almost did despite leading scorer Brandon Ingram finishing w/ a season-low five points on 2 of 12 shooting. You have to figure he'll have a better night here. 

Cleveland has just been a terrible bet all season long, except for the select number of times they have been an underdog (5-0 ATS!). As a favorite, they're a hideous 5-17 ATS, so it should come as no shock to you to find that they are also 3-11 ATS when facing a squad that has a losing record. Five of their previous six wins have come by single digits and those were against Atlanta, Philadelphia, Memphis and Sacramento. Three of those teams (Philly the exception) are worse than the Lakers right now. When you give up 109 PPG at home for the season, it's difficult to cover large spreads such as this one. 10* LA Lakers

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): What a strange, up and down season the Flyers have had so far. From November 11th to December 4th, the club lost 10 consecutive games, five of those coming in overtime or a shootout. But they apparently "rediscovered" themselves in a trek through Western Canada, sweeping Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver, then for good measure returned home and defeated a quality Maple Leafs side. Now they'll try and beat beat an American franchise for the 1st time since beating Chicago on 11.9. Lucky for them is that Buffalo should be all to accomodating. By any objective measure, the Sabres are the worst team in the Eastern Conferencce as they have the fewest number of points and the worst goal differential. 

Buffalo is off a rare win here, which makes me even more skeptical of their chances tonight. On Tuesday, they downed the Senators by a 3-2 score, scoring all three goals in the second period. Getting blanked in two of three periods is nothing new for this team as they are dead last in the league in goals per game. They're also 30th on the power play. Sadly, the other side of the ledger isn't much better either. The Sabres rank 28th in goals allowed. This is a team that has won B2B games only ONE time all season and that was back on 10.21-10.24. Though they took both the Blues and Blackhawks to OT in their last two road games, the Sabres were badly outshot in both games. Tonight's likely starting goaltender, Robin Lehner, has a .893 save percentage. 

Meanwhile, Philly has seemingly rediscovered its scoring touch these last four games, totaling 17 goals during that time. All four wins came in regulation and Tuesday's win over Toronto was quite impressive when you consider they outshot the prolific Maple Leafs 39-22. Something that surprises me some is the Flyers are only 5-10 at home this season. But four of those losses have occurred past regulation. Currently, the team is tied for the most OT/shootout losses in the league (7) which indicates they've been the victim of poor luck. Goalie Brian Elliott has certainly been doing his job of late w/ a .946 save percentage his L4 starts. He gives his team a massive edge over Lehner and faces an opponent that has dropped six of eight while being shut out three times during that span. Philly has gotten goals from 10 different players during its win streak and has played disciplined hockey w/ only seven penalties taken. 8* Philadelphia

10* Over Canucks/Predators (10:05 ET): Right now, these two Western Conference teams are  pretty much where we expected them to be before the start of the season. Vancouver is near the bottom of the Pacific while Nashville resides near the top of the Central. I'm a little surprised that oddsmakers don't have this one priced as more of a mismatch, especially w/ the Preds in off a loss and having had ample rest to recover from it. The Canucks have lost three straight and been giving up plenty of goals in the process (13). Who am I to question those that set the lines, but the latter half of that previous sentence has me thinking Over here as Nashville (#8 in goals per game) has tallied at least three goals in seven consecutive contests. Take the Over. 

It was a shootout loss to Vegas back on Friday for the Preds, 4-3. They outshot the Knights and had the lead going into the final minute of regulation, but it was not to be. Nashville is a strong team as they rank in the top 8 in goals scored, goals allowed, power play percentage and penalty kill percentage. However, if there is one thing that worries me coming into tonight's game, it's the number of shots on goal they've been allowing recently. Over the L5 games, that number has ballooned to an average of 38.2 per contest, which puts a lot of pressure on the goaltender. Since they haven't played in five days, the Preds are likely to go w/ Pekka Rinne here, but even his save percentage has gone down recently. Offensively, I'm not concerned w/ the club going into this contest, however. The Over has hit in each of the Preds' L3 games and is 23-10 L3 seasons if they've gone Over in three straight. 

Vancouver has been held to two goals or fewer in three straight, but as mentioned before, has also given up 13 goals during that time. Injuries have hurt this team, literally and figuratively, and unlike Nashville the depth simply isn't there to overcome them. One positive sign though (for us) is that the Over is 8-3 in Canucks' games this season if they allowed 4 or more goals the previous game. One positive is that, like the Preds, Vancouver ranks in the top eight in the league on the power play. So don't be surprised if the man advantage, if either side has it, helps us out in a major way here. 10* Over Canucks/Predators

10* LSU (9:00 ET): Houston has just one loss on its resume (Drexel!), but I'm not convinced they should be a favorite tonight down in Baton Rouge. This is the time of year where "investigating" a team's record would suit you well. Not all won-loss records are "created equally" and in the case of Houston we have a team that just played its first "true" road game of the season back on Saturday. While the result, a 77-58 win, appears to be a positive sign, note that it came at the expense of lowly St. Louis. UH did drub Arkansas earlier this month (at home), but remember what I said earlier - they also lost to Drexel (as 14-pt chalk, on a neutral floor). Take the points here. 

LSU has played only seven games thus far and is 5-2 SU. Their losses came against Notre Dame and Marquette, two pretty good teams (especially the Irish). Those took place right before Thanksgiving and the Tigers have since bounced back w/ a pair of convincing wins, first over Tenn Martin, then over UNC Wilmington. Both were here in Baton Rouge. While Houston can certainly score "with the best of 'em" (81.7 PPG), LSU's offense has been even more prolific and at home (where they are a perfect 4-0 SU), the Bayou Bengals are averaging a whopping 96.2 points per contest! Defensively, they may have their issues, but they do rank in the top 30 in adjusted offensive efficiency in the KenPom ratings. In fact, LSU is #1 in the COUNTRY in two-point field goal percentage (63.1!) after shooting 45 of 74 from inside the arc the L2 games.

This is the best start for any Houston team since the 2007-08 squad. Because of the good start, they are a threat to win 20+ games this year. But this is one that should end up being a loss. My guess is that the Arkansas game ends up being UH's "best win" by season's end. They won't be as successful defensively here as they were Saturday at St. Louis, whom they held to 58 points on 36.4% shooting. Look for LSU big-man Duop Reath to be the difference maker in this one as he is coming off a 30-point game (in only 27 minutes of action). His size (he's 6'11") will be an issue for the guard-oriented Cougars. 10* LSU

10* Portland (7:35 ET): The Blazers have hit a bit of a rough patch as they've lost five in a row while giving up 113.4 points per game and allowing opponents to shoot above 51% from the field. This is a far cry from what we saw from this team in the early part of the season as they ranked near the top of the league in defensive efficiency (still 7th!). Now, many were predicting this "downfall," noting Portland had played arguably the league's easiest schedule over the first month. The fact that they lost four in a row at home was still surprising though; just as much as losing at Golden State (no Curry) on Monday was not. But after playing the Rockets and Warriors consecutively, it's a steep drop in class in terms of opponent for tonight and I don't agree w/ the oddsmakers that Portland should be the dog here. Take the points. 

Given some of the numbers (and the fact the Dubs were w/o Curry), you might have thought Portland should have won Monday night in Oakland. Damian Lillard led the way w/ 39 pts, the 10th time going over 30 this season. The team made 92% of its FT attempts (23 of 25) and turned it over just nine times in the game, five fewer than GSW. So what went wrong? Well, Golden State (Kevin Durant in particular) couldn't miss as they shot 55% from the floor. To be honest, the Dubs even led by 18 going into the fourth quarter. Now, you might then be concerned over the fact Portland is now facing a team that has shot the ball at better than a 56% clip in B2B victories. But don't be. The Heat are still languishing near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency (23rd) and wins over the likes of Memphis and Brooklyn should not lead to any sort of critical re-evaluation. 

Furthermore, the Heat are still w/o Hassan Whiteside (until January) and this is the first time they're coming off B2B wins in almost three weeks. Again, the wins came at the expense of the Nets and Grizzlies, two bad teams. Those two victories simply are not indicative of what we've seen from the Heat so far this season as they allowed sub-90 pts in both, but are still giving up 106.6 PPG at home this year. I thought this would be a better team coming into 2017-18, but the bottom line is they've been outscored and continue to have a negative net efficiency rating. They are only 2-7 ATS at home and were actually a dog at Memphis on Monday. This season has seen the Heat go a poor 1-4 ATS when off a SU win as a dog. 10* Portland

8* Oklahoma City (7:00 ET): The big "storyline" heading into this game will be Paul George returning to Indiana to face his former team. But, for me, the issue is when (if ever?) will the Thunder start to turn things around. This has been a team, all season long, that you would think is destined to have a better record. After all, they've been outscoring their opponents by a decent margin. But 26 games into the campaign, OKC still has a losing record (12-14) and a new nadir may have been established two nights ago when they lost to a severely short-handed Hornets team, 116-103 at home. It was the Thunder's ninth consecutive ATS loss. Even though the team is just 3-10 SU on the road, I'm "buying low" here against an Indiana team that has overachieved. 

When the deal was made to send George to OKC in exchange for Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis, no one could have anticipated that the Pacers (16-11) would have the better record of the two teams more than a one-quarter of the way into the season. But they do. Oladipo himself has been a major reason for that as he's leading Indiana w/ 24.5 points per game. The Pacers have now won four straight, all here at home, including one over Cleveland where they ended the Cavs' franchise-best 13-game win streak (Cleveland's only loss in its last 16 games!).  By most objective measures (point differential, net efficiency), this is probably the 4th best team in the East right now. But will this "overachievement" continue? I'm remain a little skeptical of that as this isn't a very good defensive team (allows 107.5 PPG at home!) and they're just 2-5 ATS this season after a double-digit win. Monday, they beat Denver 126-116. 

OKC, conversely, has been one of the biggest underachievers in the league so far. There's just no way this team should have a losing record given the talent on hand. Some of it has to do w/ bad luck. They've lost four games by three points or less and are 4-10 SU in games decided by eight points or less. (Indiana is a league-best 4-0 SU in games decided by 3 pts or less). Though they are sometimes guilty of faltering down the stretch in games, OKC's defense is still #2 in efficiency, trailing only Boston. Then there's this: when these teams met earlier in the season (October 25), the Thunder were 13-pt favorites and won 114-96. Using that 1st meeting as a baseline, it would certainly appear as if there's a TON of value on OKC for the rematch. They've got to break this ATS losing streak, right? 8* Oklahoma City

8* Phoenix (10:05 ET): Even w/o Devin Booker (leading scorer), I believe the Suns can still beat the Kings in this battle of bottom three teams in the league. Just look at what happened to the Suns themselves their last time out. Facing a very depleted Spurs team, they lost 104-101. Often times, we see the marketplace overreact to an injury and that's what we have here. The Kings are very bad and probably shouldn't be favored over anyone at this point. Maybe the Bulls, if they were visiting, but w/ Chicago posting B2B wins, I now have Sacramento rated at the bottom of the league. They're being outscored by a ghastly 10.8 points per 100 possessions, which is just wretched no matter how you slice it. Getting points against the Kings is not a situation that will present itself all too often this season. In fact, this will be just their fourth game as chalk and they've gone 1-2 SU, 0-2-1 ATS in role so far. 

The Kings have not been favored by more than two points against anyone previous to tonight and two of the three instances of them as chalk came back in October. They lost both games outright, one at Phoenix. Interesting is that two of the three times they've been favored actually came on the road! The only time they've been favored since November 1st was at Chicago (12.1) and they won by exactly one point as 1-pt faves. Their lone appearance as home chalk this season came against New Orleans and they lost outright, 114-106. Though there are teams w/ worse records, no one can "match" the Kings' negative efficiency rating or YTD point differential, both of which are currently league worsts. 

Even w/o Booker, I expect Phoenix to be much more potent offensively than their adversary in this matchup. They come in averaging 107.1 PPG, which is the second highest average in the entire league right now! Sacramento is dead last in the league in points per game (96.1) and 29th in offensive efficiency (ahead of only Chicago). Marquese Chriss is one player that has picked up the slack in Booker's absence w/ 26 total pts in the L2 games. I expect the Suns to "push the pace" tonight as they rank 2nd in tempo league-wide while Sacramento is 28th. Note that they still won that first meeting despite attempting 22 fewer shots than the Kings! The Suns were far more efficient that day (54.5 FG%) and are likely to be again this evening. 8* Phoenix

10* Under Kings/Devils (7:05 ET): Both of these teams would qualify as "early season surprises," though it does appear likely that the Devils will start to fade. The Metro is a very congested race right now (six teams separated by just four points) and at one point, NJ was out in front. But now they find themselves in the middle due to dropping four of six, including two straight. The fact they've been outscored on the season (allowed 10 goals L2 games) also doesn't bode well for future results. The Kings, on the other hand, continue to maintain their lead in the Pacific thanks to an eight-game winning streak, the longest active run in the league right now. Furthermore, only Tampa Bay has a better YTD goal differential. It's tempting to play LA here, but it's a road game. So, instead we'll look at the total. 

The Kings have been winning thanks to their defense and goaltending. They come into tonight ranked #1 in goals allowed and on the penalty kill. During this eight-game win streak of theirs, they've allowed two or fewer goals seven times. Jonathan Quick's injury was a major reason the Kings struggled last year, but he's back and fully healthy now w/ a .930 save percentage and 2.14 goals against average. Somewhat surprising is that the team's typically outstanding puck possession numbers are down this year and they are just "middle of the pack" in both Corsi/Fenwick percentage. But Quick remains a difference maker and I see him having little trouble w/ a Devils offense that has failed to outshoot any opponent over its last seven contests. Over its L6 games, NJ has scored just 13 goals.

These teams have a history of going Under against one another. Granted, they don't play often (just twice per year), but the Under is 21-9 the L30 meetings including 12-4 here in East Rutherford. Last year's visit from LA saw oddsmakers hang an O/U line of only 4.5 goals and the game (3-1 Kings' win) still stayed Under! This year, the Kings are 7-3 Under in road games when the O/U line is set at 5.5 goals. Another key here is I expect the Devils' goaltending to be a lot better than what we've seen recently. As mentioned earlier, they've allowed a total of 10 goals the L2 games, but Corey Schnieder will be back between the pipes tonight and he is still sporting a solid .924 save percentage his L4 appearances. 10* Under Kings/Devils

8* Princeton (7:00 ET): The Ivy League contingent has yet to cover a single spread this season (0-5 ATS) and returns home not only looking to snap a three-game SU losing streak, but also w/ revenge on its mind. The Tigers have had plenty of time to stew over last week's 71-60 loss at GW, but perhaps foremost on their minds here will be a six-point loss to Monmouth (tonight's opponent) last season. Interestingly enough, that would be their final loss of the 2016-17 regular season as Princeton closed on a 17-game win streak (perfect vs. Ivy League!) before bowing out to Notre Dame in the NCAA Tournament. They come into this year's matchup w/ Monmouth having a slightly worse record (2-6 SU) and this is their second three-game losing streak this season. But I believe the Monmouth game again signals a turnaround for the Tigers and I'll be on them tonight. 

Monmouth, ironically, also has lost its last three games. Unlike Princeton, they had to play over the weekend (Saturday) and it was a marquee game against Kentucky that they lost 93-76. After playing such a high-profile opponent (at a neutral site, no less!), this game is far less likely to hold the Hawks attention than it will for Princeton. Given the game vs. UK was closer to their "backyard," needless to say it was a disappointing showing for Monmouth, who shot only 37.1% from the floor while giving up 93 points. The Hawks trailed by 23 at half and it was never close. Overall, the Hawks have dropped six of seven and while three of those defeats have come by five points or fewer, they're still being outscored by 8.8 points per game away from home (whether "true" road game or neutral site).

Princeton has played only three home games thus far and surprisingly they've lost two of them. Early in the year, they were favored here over BYU (-3.5), so that shows the respect they had from the books at one time. A loss here to Lehigh is what begat the current three-game slide and while scoring has been a bit of an issue for these Tigers, they are at least connecting at a 37.9% clip from behind the three-point arc. Monmouth is giving up almost 80 PPG for the year, so I feel this is the game where the Princeton offense finally breaks loose. In particular, keep an eye on senior PG Amir Bell, who got off to a similar slow start last year. Bell was shutout in 32 minutes vs. GW last week, a performance that certainly won't be repeated. 8* Princeton

10* Toronto (10:35 ET): As a potential NBA Finalist, no one takes the Raptors seriously, but statistically speaking they have been superior to their main rivals in the Eastern Conference, Boston and Cleveland. In fact, only Golden State and Houston can claim a better net efficiency rating league-wide. Toronto comes into tonight's game riding a six-game win streak, the last two coming out on the road, and all but one of those victories has been by at least nine points! They won easily last night, 102-87 over lowly Sacramento. The Clippers have been beseiged by injuries (most notably Blake Griffin) and as a result are only 9-15 SU. They did win their last time out - by one over Washington - but won't be as fortunate here. Lay the points. 

That Clippers' win over the Wizards took place here at home on Saturday and snapped a four-game losing streak. They were catching the Wiz in a somewhat favorable spot as it was a fourth straight game out West w/o John Wall. Here, Toronto may be playing the second night of a back to back, but they are at full strength and a better team than Washington to boot. Key here is the Raptors' offensive efficiency, which ranks 3rd in the league (trailing only GSW and Houston) going up against a Clippers' defense which ranks 28th in efficiency, ahead of only Phoenix and Sacramento. The Raptors are averaging 118 points per over their last five contests and have scored at least 100 in 12 consecutive games.

Toronto is running a more up-tempo approach offensively and as you can tell, it's been successful. "The new offense is coming along well," DeMar DeRozan said, according to the Toronto Star. "We're getting more and more comfortable, ball movement is getting much better and guys getting more comfortable handling the ball, pushing the ball in transition. Now everybody's getting a feel for the offense. That's a good thing. And we've still got a long way to go." Remember that the Clips have not posted B2B wins in over two weeks and their win Saturday came on a 30-foot three-pointer w/ one second to go in regulation. They're also 2-15 ATS the L3 seasons when coming off three or more consecutive Overs (0-4 ATS so far this season). Toronto led wire to wire last night and did so despite sub-par shooting from PG Kyle Lowry. It was a day game too; so this is NOT a "traditional" back to back. 10* Toronto

10* Over Patriots/Dolphins (8:30 ET): New England will be w/o star TE Rob Gronkowski (suspended) here, but it figures to matter little against a Miami team that should feel extremely fortunate to have five wins this season. The Dolphins rank near the bottom of the league in most, if not all, consequential offensive categories and that includes being last in yards gained (292.6 per game) and 27th in points (17.4). Prior to LW's 35-9 thumping of the Broncos (more on that in a moment), all of Miami's previous wins had come by six points or less. Going against a resurgent Patriots' defense, we probably should not expect much from this Dolphins' offense tonight. That being said, their last seven games have all gone Over the total and that's the way I'm playing this one.

Reports of the Pats' demise were greatly exaggerated. They did start out "only" 2-2 SU w/ the defense giving up 30+ points in all four games. But since then, it's been eight consecutive victories, tied w/ Pittsburgh (who they play next week!) for the longest active streak in the league. During the win streak, the defense has not allowed more than 17 pts in any game. Still, I'm a bit leery of buying "too much" into this "transformation" as the Patriots' D continues to allow plenty of yards per game (375.7). With or w/o Gronk, however, there is no questioning Tom Brady and this offense. They lead the league in yards per game (413.1) and in the first meeting vs. Miami (two weeks ago), it was 35 points and 417 yards that were put up. One of the reasons I'm not overly concerned w/ the Gronk suspension here is that in the 1st meeting, the Pats were highly successful at the running the ball, gaining 196 yards on 38 carries.

Miami actually averages 25.2 PPG at home, a full TD over their overall scoring average. Because they lost a home game to London, they've played only five times here all season. But in each of the last four, they've scored at least 20 points. If they hit that benchmark here tonight, I have no doubt that the Over is coming in. Last week's game vs. Denver was a bit odd in that there were two safeties (both for Miami) and two non-offensive scores (1 per side). Take that stuff away and it would have been a far lower scoring game. But Miami did gain 367 total yds and had success running and passing the ball. The home game before that (vs. Tampa Bay), they gained a season-best 448 yds (only to be undone by FIVE turnovers). Again, seven straight Overs for this team. 10* Over Patriots/Dolphins

8* Under Capitals/Islanders (7:05 ET): We have two high-powered offensive clubs facing off tonight in Brooklyn, but they are definitely trending in opposite directions. Washington has won four in a row and now stands in second place in what is shaping up to be a very tight race in the Metro. The Islanders have lost their last three games to fall to fourth in that same division (but are only two points back of the Caps). With both teams holding an identical +6 goal differential on the season, I see no edge when it comes to playing the side here, but the total (which is predictably high) does offer some value. I do not see Washington's recent scoring flurry holding up nor dor I see NY's ridiculous goal scoring average at home (4.6 gpg!) staying that high. Therefore, I'm playing the Under in what should prove to be a very competitive contests. 

Opposing goalies have just an .869 save percentage this season when facing the Isles at home. That's pretty remarkable. Note all three of the games the Isles just lost came on the road. They haven't played at home since December 1st when they were bested by Ottawa, 6-5. There have been seven or more total goals scored in seven of the Isles' previous nine games. That's a ton of scoring, but then again they do rank 2nd in goals scored and 29th in goals allowed. But I do not expect that sharp dichotomy to continue moving forward. It's just too extreme. It's going to be difficult solving Caps' goalie Braden Holtby, who has a .922 save percentage his L4 games. 

At the same time, look for Washington's recent scoring surge to come back down. Over the L5 games, they've averaged 4.0 goals per game w/ opposing goaltenders posting a weak .863 save percentage. They've scored at least four times in each game of the current four-game win streak, but do note that the Caps had actually been a disappointment offensively for much of the first two months of the season. They still rank only 10th in goals per game and perhaps more surprising is that they are 29th in shots per game (29.2). Quite obviously, the Islanders have not gotten great play in between the pipes this year, but at least tonight's starter Jaroslav Halak represents a serious upgrade over the other option (Thomas Greiss). Look for this one to be lower scoring than expected. 8* Under Capitals/Islanders

10* South Florida (7:00 ET): This in-state battle may lack appeal for the casual bettor, but situationally I love the spot for the short home favorite, who is off a bad loss while its visitor is off a surprise win. Both USF and FIU last played nine days ago. On December 2nd, the former lost badly up at Appalachian State, 84-61 (9-pt dogs). It was the Bulls' worst loss to date and their third in a row overall. As for FIU, they pulled a moderate upset over South Alabama that same day, winning by a shocking margin (29 points!) as two-point dogs. Needless to say, I don't think we'll be seeing that kind of performance from the Panthers anytime soon! Note it came at home and this will be just the second "true" road game of the year for FIU. They lost the first, by 15, at WI-Milwaukee. I'm laying the short number here.

Not much is expected from USF in 2017-18 as they've been predicted to finish near the bottom of the AAC. There's not a ton of offensive firepower here as they average only 63.8 PPG, but you have to figure they'll be at least a little sharper than they were their last time here in Tampa, which saw them shoot an abysmal 29.2% from the floor in 65-47 loss to Eastern Michigan. They've since followed that up w/ two losses in North Carolina, to Elon and Appalachian State. We already discussed the latter a bit and the former came by just a single point. Defensively, the Bulls are better than what they've shown the L2 games. They allow just 60.0 PPG at home and I'm counting on them holding FIU to a far worse shooting percentage than the 51.9% we saw from App State nine days ago. 

FIU did not shoot well in its only "true" road game to date, the aforementioned 66-51 loss to WI-Milwaukee. In that game, the Panthers shot just 35% from the floor. They've only been above 45.5% in two games all year and those happen to be the last two games. Certainly, look for them to "come back down to Earth" after the stunning showing against South Alabama, a game which saw FIU feast off turnovers and benefit from USA completely imploding down the stretch (just one FG make in final six minutes). Note FIU is just 1-5-1 ATS their L7 games off an ATS win and 2-6-1 ATS their L9 off a SU win. Meanwhile, USF is 5-1 ATS following an ATS defeat. Three of FIU's four wins this year have come against non-DI foes. No doubt that USF has played the tougher schedule to date (played at Indiana) and the key here will be their defense. Also, don't discount the fact that FIU is horrible from the FT line where they shoot just 57.5%. That matters in a game that's "supposed to be" close like this one. 10* South Florida

8* Baltimore (8:30 ET): Given that the Steelers were going to be on a short week, I thought this line opened way too high, so the fact that it's come down a couple point during the week is not surprising on this end. Even post-move, there's still a ton of value on the Ravens, who have the better point differential of the two teams. Plus, Pittsburgh played a very physical game Monday night at Cincinnati, losing LB Ryan Shazier (best wishes to him!) in the process. Now they've got to deal w/ another physical AFC North rival, one that is much better than the Bengals team they barely beat six days ago (last second field goal). Baltimore's defense has allowed the second fewest number of points in the AFC, trailing only Jacksonville. Take the points. 

This is also a legit revenge spot for the Ravens, who were humbled up in Pittsburgh back in Week 4. That 26-9 defeat is simply not indicative of where these teams are at currently, however, as the first meeting was a horrific situation from Baltimore's perspective. They were just one week removed from an awful showing in London where they were drubbed by Jacksonville 44-7. Having no bye week after a London game is rare and it definitely affected the Ravens adversely. Since that loss, Baltimore has gone 5-3 SU w/ two of the losses coming by only a field goal. Last week's 44-20 blowout of Detroit was their third consecutive victory and while that game didn't get "out of hand" until late, it was still an impressive win nevertheless. With three forced turnovers against the Lions, Baltimore is now +14 in TO margin this year and that's #1 in the entire league. 

If Week 4 could be termed a "horrific situation" for Baltimore, the proverbial "shoe" is now "on the other foot" here. Pittsburgh not only is w/o its top linebacker (Shazier), but emerging WR JuJu Smith-Schuster is also suspended for his (dirty hit) on Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict (oh the irony there!) Monday night. Yes, the Ravens have lost their top CB (Jimmy Smith) for the rest of the regular season. But what I'm more focused on here is the run defense, which is unlikely to allow anything close to the neighborhood of the 144 yds gained by Le'Veon Bell in that 1st meeting. Over the L5 weeks, the Ravens have allowed an average of just 67 rushing yards per game. 8* Baltimore

10* Under Coyotes/Blackhawks (7:05 ET): I anticipate Chicago will roll here as they welcome lowly Arizona to the "Madhouse on Madison." The Blackhawks finally got off the "schnide" Friday by coming from behind to defeat Buffalo, 3-2 in overtime. Now it's an even lesser opponent that comes in, one they have beaten seven straight times dating back to the 2015-16 season. Furthermore, the 'Yotes will come in w/ the fewest number of points in the Western Conference + w/ the worst goal differential (tied w/ Buffalo in both areas for the worst such marks in the league) and are playing in the second night of a back to back (lost 1-0 in Columbus last night). But, of course, the "tax" (money line) is going to be awfully high here, so it's the total we'll now take a look at.

The 'Yotes were shutout last night, making it the ninth time (in 32 games) that they've been held to 1 or 0 goals. Two of those have come consecutively as they also lost 6-1 at Boston on Wednesday. Tired legs could be an issue here as this is the end of a tough four-game road swing that has taken the team from Vegas to Boston to Columbus to Chicago. They are winless so far on trip w/ only three goals scored in three games. For the year, Arizona is second to last in goals per game (2.3) and their offense probably doesn't stand much of a chance here going against a Chicago team that is top seven in both goals allowed and on the penalty kill. 

Let's also keep in mind, however, that the Blackhawks have not topped three goals in regulation going back six games. They trailed Buffalo 2-1 well into the third period before tying things up w/ less than four minutes to go in regulation. The GW goal came in the final seconds of OT. There is a chance they could breakout here (Arizona is 30th in goals allowed), but I'm banking on the 'Hawks not allowing many, if any, goals. Corey Crawford is back between the pipes and he has a 2.27 goals against average and .920 save percentage in 22 games this season. Arizona has seen 9 of its last 11 games stay Under the total while Chicago is 7-3 Under its L10 games. 10* Under Coyotes/Blackhawks

8* Seattle (4:25 ET): It appears as if rumors of the Seahawks' demise were greatly exaggerated. They shot back into the thick of the NFC Playoff race last week w/ a very impressive Sunday night victory over the Eagles, 24-10, a game in which they were in the rare role of home dog. I believe that there's a case to be made that Russell Wilson, and not Carson Wentz, is the true league MVP this year. With the once-vaunted Legion of Boom (secondary) ailing, Wilson is carrying the offense and the team. This week presents a new challenge, in the form of a cross-country visit to face ascedent Jacksonville, but it's one that I feel the Seahawks will be up for. I again point to this team's track record as an underdog, which is now 6-5 ATS L11 w/ five outright victories. 

In many ways, the Jaguars are building their team in the same fashion Seattle did. The Jags' strength is clearly the defensive side of the ball as they've given up the fewest number of points in all of football. In fact, they've allowed 25 fewer points on the season than every other team! Turnovers have played a big role in this year's improvement as well as they are #2 in the league in TO margin at +12. They also have a front seven that should - on paper - dominate the suspect Seattle offensive line. But I come back to the most significant edge the Seahawks have in this matchup - and it the QB position w/ Wilson over Blake Bortles. Seattle's defense remains very good, mind you. Don't expect Jacksonville to score a ton of points Sunday.

The last three weeks, Jacksonville has faced Cleveland, Arizona and Indianapolis. Those are three of the worst teams in the league. The offense gained fewer than 300 total yds against both the Browns and Cardinals. Against the former, they were very fortunate to cover and they lost to the latter. Last week, they did beat up on a direction-less Colts team. But the Jags have injuries on the defensive side of the ball now too, namely DB Jalen Ramsey and LB Telvin Smith. Those would be huge absences, if one or neither played. RB Leonard Fournette has also been in and out of the lineup recently w/ ankle issues. Again, Seattle just beat the supposed "best team in the league" last week and did so handily, by two touchdowns. The last time Jacksonville beat a team that currently has a winning record was a Week 5 win over Pittsburgh where the defense scored two touchdowns. 8* Seattle

8* Boston (4:05 ET): Thanks to its early season 16-game win streak, the Celtics have remained comfortably in front of the pack in the Eastern Conference. However, their lead has shrunk down to three games over hard-charging Cleveland, who has won 14 of its last 15. Boston is off a loss here, in a "playoff-like" game at San Antonio. The final score was 105-102 (didn't cover as 2.5-pt dogs) as Kyrie Irving's three-point attempt at the buzzer went in and out. Tonight, the C's look to avenge one of their five losses this season in a visit to Detroit where they'll find a Pistons team that has fallen on "hard times." Since beating Boston on 11.27, the Pistons have gone just 1-5 SU and they're winless (0-5) here in December. 

As was the case w/ Boston, there was no real shame in the Pistons' last loss, although their opponent was w/o a key contributor. While Boston lost to the Kwahi Leonard-less Spurs, Detroit lost to the Steph Curry-less Warriors on Friday, 102-98 as 5.5-point home pups. The Pistons did have the halftime lead, but were outscored 31-17 in the third quarter and did not recover. That's five straight losses and counting for a team that was an early season surprise in the East. They have wins over both the Celtics and Warriors, but it will be interesting to see how they perform in yet another instance of a top team seeking revenge against them. My guess is that this game goes pretty similar to the last one. During the course of the losing streak, Detroit is shooting only 42.3% from the field and is being outscored by 6.8 points per game. 

Boston is 19-7-1 ATS in all of its games this season and continues to get it done w/ defense as they are #1 in the league in points allowed (97.5 per game) and efficiency. Simply put, I would not expect a repeat of when the Pistons scored 118 pts on better than 50% shooting in last month's meeting. Boston will be w/o some minor contributors this afternoon, but Kyrie Irving is taking off the facemask and will be at full strength. The Celtics have not dropped B2B games since starting the season 0-2 and have won by an average of 17 PPG off their last two losses. 8* Boston

8* Under Raiders/Chiefs (1:00 ET): There was a time when the thought of a tight, three-way race for AFC West supremacy would have been considered unfathomable. At least one that involves the Chargers, who were 0-4 SU at one point while the other three teams all started 2-0 or better. The Chiefs were 5-0 SU and thought to be the best team in the league at one point. But that was a mirage as they were being outgained the whole time and a stunning fall (lost six of seven) has opened the door for both Oakland and Los Angeles to overtake them. All three teams enter the week at 6-6 SU, making this game absolutely crucial (Chargers host Washington). Oakland took the first meeting, 31-30, in what was an absolute thriller, won on an untimed down. But I expect the rematch to feature a lot less scoring. Take the Under.

Oakland's offense has been nowhere near as prolific as it was last year, scoring more than 21 pts just three times in the L10 games. The KC game, a Thurs night home game, was their highest scoring effort of the season. I'm not buying this team as being "back" considering their last three wins were against the Dolphins, Broncos and Giants, and all by a TD or less. Last week vs. the Giants, it was a 10-7 game entering the 4th quarter. Yes, the Chiefs' D is w/o CB Marcus Peters (suspended), but the Raiders' offense may likely be w/o WR Amari Cooper (concussion). Oakland's last three games have all stayed Under the total w/ them averaging fewer than 18 points per game.

Meanwhile, it's all going wrong for the Chiefs right now. The offense finally woke up last week, scoring two early TD's and finishing w/ 31 points. But the defense let them down, making Jets QB Josh McCown look like an All-Pro. The 38-31 loss was KC's fourth in a row, the last three all by a TD or less. The previous three had seen them score just 36 points total, however. The defense has allowed 20 pts or fewer in more half the games this season, so again, I have every reason to believe that this week will see far less scoring than that first meeting. It's also all but assured the KC offense will see its production decrease from last week (and the 1st meeting), especially w/ the cloud of uncertainty hanging over QB Alex Smith. Could there be a Patrick Mahomes sighting? 8* Under Raiders/Chiefs

10* Houston (1:00 ET): As down as I was on the Texans coming into the year, and especially in the wake of the DeShaun Watson injury, you may find it a bit "odd" that I'd be so strongly behind them here. But so much of this play is about the opponent and my desire to play against them. The 49ers are off a win, just their 2nd of the year, 15-14 over the Bears last week. The notion of that team winning B2B games, on the road no less and in an early start time, seems far fetched. Now give credit to San Fran for last week as they absolutely deserved to win the game (outgained Chicago 388-147 w/ 23-8 first down edge), but they last won B2B games back in 2014. Since that time, any time they have been off a win, the next game has resulted in a double-digit loss (w/ one exception).

Since Watson was lost for the year, Houston is just 1-4 SU/2-3 ATS. They return home this week following B2B road loss to Baltimore and Tennessee, two potential playoff teams. This week's opponent will be the Texans' weakest since a win over Cleveland. While 1-5 SU on the road, Houston is 3-3 SU at home and outscoring teams by 5.5 points per game. They actually outgained Tennessee last week, 384-344, and it was a misleading final (24-13) due to the Titans scoring a very late TD. Much maligned QB Tom Savage even threw for 365 yards, completing 31 of 49 passes. The Texans' point differential being only -13 indicates to me they've played better than their record. As a favorite, the Texans are 14-3 SU/11-5-1 ATS the L3 seasons including a perfect 4 for 4 straight up when laying three or less at home. 

As for the 49ers, they are 2-10 SU and already thinking about next year. But there's some optimism here due to Jimmy Garoppolo now being the QB. They did win his starting debut, but only 15-14, and didn't score a single touchdown. In their last 22 road games. the Niners have just three wins. So again, B2B wins seems highly unlikely. In five of the last six games, they have not topped 15 points! In 8 of 12 games this year, they have not topped 15 points! Sure, the majority of those were w/o Garoppolo, but last week was. This is a team being outscored by more than a full TD per game on the year. My own power rankings have this spread above a touchdown. 10* Houston

8* Chattanooga (1:00 ET): UTC was not expected to be a major player in the SoCon coming into the year and has started just 4-5 straight up. But that record could be a lot better were it not for several close decisions that went the opposite way. Three times already, the Mocs have lost a game that was decided by five points or less. That includes their last time out, a 70-66 setback at Marshall where they at least covered as eight point dogs. I think it is significant that the Mocs are favored here. Yes, it is at home, but it's also illustrative of just how weak the opponent is as well. Charlotte is 0-5 ATS right now and has dropped their last three games - SU - overall. Lay the points.

Chattanooga led by six over Marshall going into the half, but could not hold the lead and lost a close one. Making the result all the more frustrating is the fact Marshall went just 1 for 16 from three-point range. They simply could not stop the Thundering Herd on the interior as Marshall finished the game a somewhat ridiculous 28 of 46 on two-point attempts. Don't count on Charlotte doing the same, however. Even w/ 31 free throws attempted (made 22), they still could not stay within 20 points of Wake Forest on Tuesday and that was at home. The 49ers finished that game at just 15 of 47 overall from the field, 31.9%. They missed 18 of 23 three-pointers as well. 

Typically, Chattanooga has been pretty stout at the defensive end. At least at home they are, as they've held visiting teams to an average of just 59.2 PPG on 39.4% shooting. Getting this game at home "changes everything" for the Mocs as they are 0-4 SU away from home, but 4-1 SU inside of McKenzie Arena. They are particularly sharp from behind the three-point arc here, making 43.3% of all attempts from there at home. As for Charlotte, they have issues defensively as they're giving up 79.1 points per game for the year and their two "true" road games thus far have seen them yield 83 and 87 pts. As mentioned earlier, Charlotte has not covered a single spread this season (0-5 ATS) and they're also just 6-35 SU L3 seasons when priced as the underdog. Meanwhile, Chattanooga is a strong 28-5 SU its L33 home games. 8* Chattanooga

10* Portland (10:05 ET): The Blazers come into tonight's game as losers of three straight and won't have center Jusuf Nurkic in the lineup. So that hardly makes them an ideal candidate to snap Houston's superb run, but thankfully they won't have to as the number of points we're getting from the oddsmakers here seem rather generous. Now the Rockets have been on fire since the start of November, losing only once in 15 games. They've won their last eight games - all by double digits! If any team has earned the right to be mentioned in the same breath as Golden State, it is the Rockets. But, on the road, the spread is just too high here. Take the points.

For Houston, this is the end of a three-game road trip that began Sunday. As you'd expect, they had little to no problem beating the Lakers to start the trip off on the "right foot." Then, with ample time between games, they beat Utah 112-101 Thursday night. It's tough finding any deficiencies in this team's attack right now as James Harden leads the league in scoring and Chris Paul is making everyone else better (especially Ryan Anderson). But this is a big number to lay on the road, especially against a playoff caliber opponent. The last two times the Rockets had to play a 2nd road game in 3 nights, they got to face Atlanta and Memphis. This game will be a far greater challenge.

Portland's three game losing streak has taken place entirely at home, which is very disappointing. This has always been a strong team at the Moda Center, so this year's 7-7 SU start makes little to no sense. I anticipate a "best effort possible" scenario tonight. Though it has a bit to do w/ a fairly weak early season schedule, the Blazers still rank 4th in the league in defensive efficiency. Offensively, they actually shoot better from behind the three-point line than does Houston, especially here at home (38.0%). With their backs seemingly up against a wall, I look for a strong performance out of the home dog tonight. 10* Portland

8* San Jose (10:05 ET): The Sharks "pulled one out of their hat" the last time they hit the ice, rallying back from an early 3-0 deficit to defeat Carolina, 5-4, in overtime. That win has allowed them to stay in a three-way tie for the coveted third place spot (guaranteed playoffs) in the Pacific w/ 32 points. But there's such a thin line between the top and the bottom this year in the NHL that one loss can result in a precipitous fall. For example, just one point separates the Sharks from third to sixth place in their own division. So it's imperative they continue winning here on home ice. Thankfully, the visiting Senators provide an ample opportunity for San Jose to keep things going. Ottawa has lost 10 of 11 w/ very little offense to speak of.

The Sens did score three goals in regulation their last time out, but it wasn't enough as they lost at LA, in OT, 4-3. Keep in mind that came after being shutout in B2B games (Winnipeg, Anaheim), so anything was gonna be an improvement. During the 1-10 slide, Ottawa has been held to two or fewer goals nine times. They are just 23rd in goals per game for the year. But just about any objective metric, this is a club that's well below average. They also rank 25th in goals allowed per game. Even special teams are poor as they rank 26th on the power play (16.7%) and 24th on the PK (77.6%). They were lucky to even force OT against the Kings (game-tying goal came w/ less than 10 seconds left in regulation). By the way, this is also the Senators' sixth consecutive road game. 

San Jose has been allowing more goals than usual lately, but that should change here against the offensively inept Sens. The Sharks have two of the top eight goalies in terms of goals against average, including league leader Aaron Dell (1.93). Martin Jones isn't a bad option either. Both are better than Ottawa's top option, Craig Anderson, who is 34th in goals against average (3.01) w/ an .895 save percentage. I mentioned this in my analysis for the San Jose-Carolina game (had the Sharks by the way!) - they're due for better results at home given the rather large shot discrepancy they currently own over their visitors over the course of the season. Good matchup for them tonight. 8* San Jose 

8* Over Sixers/Cavs (8:05 ET): Cleveland saw it's 13-game win streak come to an end last night in Indiana and ironically it was a fourth quarter OFFENSIVE meltdown that deserved the blame. All of a sudden, after scoring 86 pts through three quarters, LeBron and company "couldn't hit water from a boat" as they didn't make a single field goal attempt in the first six minutes of the 4Q. That was a 63-57 game at halftime mind you, that ended up "only" being a 102-106 final (stayed Under). But in addition to their usual offensive prowess, the Cavs remain a poor defensive outfit (24th in efficiency) even w/o Derrick Rose. They, like their opponent tonight, are due for an Over and that's the way I see this one going.

Philly's famed "process" has hit a bit of a speedbump recently, most notably w/ bad losses to Phoenix and the Lakers in the L2 games. I can't say that I'm surprised to see them giving at least "a little" back as LY this team benefited from generous spreads en route to finishing w/ the league's #1 ATS record. They got off to another strong start at the pay window this year, but are now just 1-5 ATS their L6 games. Their L4 games have all stayed Under, but the last two both featured very high O/U lines. The Sixers' defensive efficiency may be better than Cleveland's, but they give up more points (110.4 per game on the road!) thanks in large part to the pace they play at, which ranks as fourth fastest (in terms of number of possessions per game) in the league.

Cleveland's last three games have all stayed Under, but keep in mind that two of those were against Chicago and Sacramento, the two worst offensive teams in this league. At home this year, the Cavs are still giving up a ghastly 109.5 PPG. They have, however, scored 100+ pts in 19 consecutive games, a franchise record. They've also made at least 10 three-pointers in 15 straight games. Now Philly did not shoot well at all in the 1st meeting vs. Cleveland this year (lost 113-91) and that was w/ Joel Embiid scoring 30 pts. Embiid reportedly won't play tonight (rest), but I can't see the team shooting just 37.5% again against this Cleveland defense. Take the Over. 8* Over Sixers/Cavs

10* Under Army/Navy (3:00 ET): Games between the three service academies (Army, Navy, Air Force) have a history of staying Under the total (29-8-1 since '05!), which really shouldn't be a surprise given the style of offense these teams run. The run-heavy approach leads to the clock running far more often than not and these games are usually low possession affairs. Furthermore, the fact that the defenses face this type of offense in practice makes preparation far easier. So, I wasn't shocked to see the O/U line for this year's Army-Navy tilt bet down as soon as it opened. But this is a case where oddsmakers can't make the number low enough. None of the last five matchups have seen more than 41 total pts scored. Take the Under. 

We all remember what happened LY as Army ended its historic 14-game losing streak in the rivalry w/ a 21-17 win as four-point underdogs. Putting aside the history for a moment, I still can't believe Army was getting points in that spot as it was a HORRIBLE situation for Navy, coming off a loss in the AAC Champ Game the Saturday prior. Army had its best team ever under Jeff Monken LY and was off a double bye. Once again this year Army is off a double bye (last played on Nov 18th!) and they now have a chance to exceed LY's win total as they come in at 8-3 SU. Navy is just 6-5 SU, off B2B losses to Notre Dame and Houston. In both games, the Midshipmen failed to top 17 points. 

Army's scoring average is way up this year (31.2 PPG), a high in the Monken-era. But that's a little skewed due to games against lesser competition such as FCS Fordham and Rice. In five of their 11 games, they've scored 21 pts or less, including the Air Force game, which they won in shutout fashion (21-0!). Their last game (52-49 loss to North Texas) was a wild one, but that type of game has zero chance of being repeated here. Navy has seen the Under go 5-1 this season outside of Annapolis. Their game vs. Air Force was a wild one (48-45), but the AFA also threw for a stunning 257 yds that day. Army has attempted a grand total of four passes in its last three games. For some reason, both teams chose to pass a lot against Temple, but other than that there's no instance of Army throwing for more than 80 yds in a game this year. Four games, they haven't had a single passing yard! 10* Under Army/Navy

8* Valparaiso (2:00 ET): It's pretty rare to find Valpo as the underdog in this in-state battle. Each of the L2 seasons has seen them favored by about 10 pts over Ball State. Now they did lose one of those games outright (here in Muncie) and won LY's rematch by only four. But given an 8-1 SU start this year, I'm fairly shocked the Crusaders are getting points here. Well, maybe not. They did lose Thursday, at Purdue, by 30 points. But that's a result we can now use to our advantage as it has created a ton of value, in essence making Valpo a "buy low" opportunity. Meanwhile, on the flip side, Ball State is off a shocking upset of Notre Dame as 18-pt dogs in South Bend. Previous results have conspired here for an ideal situation.

Admittedly, Valpo had not really played an opponent of any real consequence before venturing into West Lafayette two nights ago. But, you still would have expected more from them. Now they were actually leading the Boilermakers early. But a 21-4 run by Purdue in the 1H all but sealed the game. Valpo shot just 33% from the floor overall and 3 of 16 from behind the 3-pt line. They attempted only 12 free throws and remain winless all-time at Mackey Arena. But it's important to realize that was just one game and this team was undefeated prior to it. They are 9-1 SU the L3 seasons after a game in which they allowed 80+ points. They are also 3-0 SU/ATS this season playing for the second time in three days. 

The mentality of it "just being one game" also certainly applies to Ball State and what they pulled off earlier in the week. No one, most notably the Fighting Irish themselves, saw the upset of Notre Dame coming. BSU opened this season 1-4 SU, including blowout losses at Oklahoma and Oregon. They had turned things around a little w/ three straight wins heading into the ND game, but an outright win in South Bend was still shocking. The Cardinals had not beaten a nationally ranked opponent in 16 years. There was a shocking edge in rebounding there for BSU, something that is not common in their games this season. Also, they won on a last second three-pointer. Note they are still giving up over 80 PPG for the year and are just 8-22 ATS in the favorite role the L3 seasons (1-6 laying three or less at home). 8* Valparaiso

8* Chicago (8:35 ET): This game is every bit the mismatch the line indicates it is, if not more of one. The Blackhawks are a disappointing sixth in the Central Division right now as they were handed a 5th straight defeat Wednesday night, 6-2 by the Capitals. But let's keep things in their proper perspective, shall we? They've still outscored the opposition this season and remain a force in the Western Conference. Meanwhile, the same cannot be said for Buffalo out East. The Sabres are inarguably one of the two worst teams in the sport (alongside Arizona) as their goal differential (-36) matches that of the 'Yotes for league worst while they have the fewest number of points (18) overall. At home, this is the sport for Chicago to get back on track.

I think the fact Buffalo is also off a (rare) win here helps us. They beat Colorado, the lone team below Chicago in the Central, Tuesday night by a score of 4-2. Prior to that, however, the Sabres had lost four straight and had been shut out in three of those losses (scored just 1 goal total during the entirety of the losing skid!). This club is dead last in the league in scoring and overall has dropped 11 of its last 13 games. During that stretch, they have been held to 1 or 0 goals EIGHT times. Chicago comes in ranked seventh in the league in goals allowed (also 5th in penalty killing), so they should have no difficulty shutting the Sabres down. Nevermind what happened against Washington the other night; the Sabres are not the Caps.

The fact the Blackhawks are only 6-5-2 on home ice is a little bit mystifying considering they are outscoring visitors by almost a full goal per game over the course of the season. So, by that metric, they are overdue for better results here at the "Madhouse on Madison."  Through the year, they've always been pretty good at peppering opposing goaltenders w/ shots here at home and so far this year has been no different as they average 35.6 per game. Yes, they are still w/o Corey Crawford in goal, but the 'Hawks are still better there than Buffalo, who has an overall save percentage of .890 between Robin Lehner and Chad Johnson. The Sabres are 0 for 3 this season off a multi-goal victory and have been swept each of the last two seasons by the Blackhawks. 8* Chicago

10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): The Bucks came through for me in their last game (barely!) by outlasting Detroit 104-100 as 3.5-pt chalk. Now comes a lesser opponent, Dallas, who has not performed well on the road this season. Granted, it's still fair to call Milwaukee a "disappointment" at this juncture, seeing as they are "only" 13-10 SU and this was a team that came into 2017-18 w/ aspirations of finishing near the top of the Eastern Conference. But the Mavs would "kill" to be in the position Milwaukee is in right now, considering they're just 7-18 SU, a record which has them at the very bottom of the Western Conference. They have been competitive of late (6-1 ATS L7 games!), but all that's done is drive this line down too far. Lay the short number here.

Earlier I mentioned that the Mavs haven't played well on the road this year. That's actually an understatement considering a 2-8 SU record where they've been outscored by an average of 8.2 points per game. Wednesday, they lost by "only" seven up in Boston (97-90), but the offense was again very bad as the team shot below 40% from the field and managed only 33 total pts in the second half. Keep in mind that the Celtics were short-handed in that spot as well (no Jaylen Brown or Marcus Morris). The Mavs are one of the worst offensive teams in the league as they rank 26th in efficiency and points per game.

The Bucks' record since the Eric Bledsoe trade is 9-4 SU, so maybe better things are on the horizon and they can ascend up the Eastern Conference ladder. Against the Pistons, a poor third quarter virtually "un-did" a very good 1st half, but a fourth quarter run was able to seal the game. This is not a deep team, but the bench did show up against the Pistons. Of course, a deep bench is not necessarily needed when you have MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is averaging 32.7 PPG (on 54.5% shooting!) so far in December. I haven't even mentioned yet that this is a big-time revenge spot for Milwaukee as they were embarrassed down in Dallas last month, losing 111-79! They were actually six-point road favorites in that contest, making tonight's spread seem like an absolute steal by comparison. Jump on the home team! 10* Milwaukee

10* Arizona State (8:00 ET): There are only eight teams still w/o a loss this College Basketball season and one of the less heralded unbeatens is 7-0 Arizona State, who hosts St. John's tonight. While earlier in the week we successfully targeted a pair of (now former) unbeatens - Virginia and Nevada - I'm taking a different tact here. Certainly, the Sun Devils are going to lose sooner than later. But St. John's comes into Los Angeles tonight (this is a neutral site game) sans its second leading scorer, Marcus LoVett, who averaged a healthy 14.9 PPG. The Red Storm are a somewhat fraudulent 8-1 SU as they've yet to play a "true" road game and their only tough game (vs. Missouri) not coincidentally resulted in their only defeat. 

Arizona State is not only perfect straight up, they are also virtually perfect against the spread. They 'pushed' back in the season opener, which was a 20-pt win over Idaho State. Since then, it's been six consecutive wins and covers w/ all but one SU victory (Kansas State) coming by double digits. And certainly there is no shame in beating Kansas State by only a bucket as that's the Wildcats' only defeat all season and the game was played in Las Vegas. The Sun Devils were even able to overcome KSU shooting 57% from the floor in that game. And then, they went on to beat a very good Xavier team, 102-86, in the Championship Game of the Las Vegas Tournament. Is ASU really the 16th best team (current AP ranking) in America? Probably not, but they've already beaten two teams that are far better than St. John's. 

As alluded to earlier, the Red Storm being short-handed here is the other key factor as is the fact they are making a cross-country trip while it's a relatively short "jaunt" for ASU. St. John's is very good defensively, but they struggle to shoot the ball (42.4 FG%) and that will become a bigger issue if LoVett does not play. This is a major step up from the last game where Chris Mullin's team faced Grand Canyon (on Tuesday). ASU (coached by Bobby Hurley) has been off since Saturday and shoots a far higher percentage from the field (53.1%!) than does SJU. In fact, their last game was the 1st time all season that the Sun Devils failed to shoot better than 50% from the floor or score at least 90 pts. Too much offense here. 10* Arizona State 

8* San Jose (10:35 ET): The Sharks return home here after a four-game East Coast trip that started with wins over Philly and Florida, but end w/ defeats at the hands of Tampa Bay and Washington. This has been a surprisingly average team here at the Shark Tank (7-6-1 record), however, one thing that I found is that they are outshooting visitors - by a rather significant margin here. The Sharks average 34.4 shots per game on home ice, while allowing only 28.4, so they should be winning more. Now Carolina is an opponent that can put the puck on net w/ regularity as well. But their main issues resides between the pipes. That's where San Jose will have a huge edge tonight and that's a big reason why I'm on them! 

It's truly amazing how thin the line between being in the top eight in your conference and the bottom of the divisions is this year in NHL. San Jose is one of three teams in the Pacific that have 30 points, which is fourth most in the division and tied for eighth in the conference. Given they rank 2nd in the league in goals allowed, one would have to think things will get better (not worse) for the Sharks moving forward. To me, it doesn't matter who is goal tonight - Martin Jones or Aaron Dell - they will have the edge over their Carolina counterpart. Now if only they can find a way to start scoring more. Perhaps the 'Canes are the perfect elixir as San Jose has averaged roughly 4.0 goals per game its last 10 times hosting them.

These are actually two of the bottom five teams in goal scoring in the league (Carolina 27th, San Jose 29th). Thus, the fact the Sharks are 2nd in goals allowed while the Hurricanes are 15th is a major advantage. Also, San Jose is 2nd in penalty killing. Carolina is already just 28th on the power play and it's highly unlikely that the Sharks will take as many penalties as they did in their last game. Even if they did, would the Canes even be able to capitalize? Probably not. Carolina's PK ranks 25th in the league, by the way, so that's another edge San Jose's way. The Hurricanes are off a shutout loss in Vancouver and have dropped five of seven. They are near the bottom of the Metro and goaltender Scott Darling's save percentage is barely above .900 for the season. 8* San Jose

10* Over Thunder/Nets (10:05 ET): If you're wondering why it's such a late start time between these teams, take note that the game is NOT taking place in Brooklyn, but rather Mexico City. This neutral site affair might seem like a difficult matchup to handicap, but to me the most likely scenario is that each team "forgets to pack" its defense. For the Nets, they may not even have much to pack in the way of defense. Playing at one of the fastest tempos in the entire league, they already give up an average of 112.3 points per game, an Eastern Conference high (only the Suns allow more). OKC may rank near the top of the league in defensive efficiency, but late in games, they struggle at that end of the floor. Take the Over.

We may look back at Tuesday as a "turning point" for the Thunder's season. This team's record ought to be a lot better given that they've outscored the opposition this season by roughly three points per game. But they've been undermined by a failure to close out close games. They are tied w/ Washington for the most losses in the league by three points or less (4), however, they did come from behind to defeat Utah (100-94) on Tuesday. Granted, it was still their sixth consecutive ATS loss (1-8 L9), but they were able to rally back from a 17-point 2nd half deficit. There's been much hand wringing over Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony and Paul George all seeing their individual scoring decrease, but to me, that was to be expected. I don't see them having much trouble scoring in this game, that's for sure. 

Brooklyn can take advantage of the fact that the Thunder has allowed an average of 48.7% shooting its L5 games here. Given the added number of possessions that tend to take place in their games, that means more points than usual for an OKC opponent. The Nets come in off a 20-pt win over lowly Atlanta, who they held to 90 pts on 36.6% shooting. I looked it up and at no point this season have the Nets held B2B opponents below 100 points. In fact, it was just the 4th time all year holding an opponent under triple digits. The three previous instances have all seen them come back and allow a minimum of 112 PPG the next time out. In an unfamiliar environment, I expect little defense from either side. 10* Over Thunder/Nets

10* Atlanta (8:25 ET): The events of last week (Saints win, Falcons lose) have conspired to make this line "jump the fence" w/ New Orleans now favored on the road. It will be interesting to see where it eventually settles (I'm writing this Weds morning), but regardless, I'm on the Falcons at what I feel is going to be a tremendous price. It doesn't happen all that often (more than you think though!), but the defending NFC Champs have been lethal as home dogs the past few seasons. They are 7-1 ATS in the role dating back to the 2013 season w/ five outright wins. That includes a SU win LY over Carolina (48-33). Bottom line is I don't see Atlanta dropping B2B home games, not w/ the stakes involved. 

From here on out, it's all division games for the Falcons and they'll probably need to win AT LEAST three of them to get back into the playoffs. In two weeks, they'll be at New Orleans, then close then season here at home vs. Carolina, a game which could very well determine the final playoff entrant in the NFC. Last week's loss to Minnesota snapped a three-game win streak which had seen the offense average almost 32 PPG. They were held to only three field goals by the vaunted Vikings defense while going a paltry 1 for 10 on third downs, largely due to facing a lot of unfavorable situations. New Orleans' defense transformation (much improved!) has been the subject of a lot of chatter this year, but their unit is not as strong as Minnesota's, regardless if CB Marcus Lattimore returns here or not.

At the same time, Atlanta's top CB (Desmond Trufant) is expected back from a concussion. Then again, defense was certainly not the issue LW vs. the Vikings as they allowed only two touchdowns. Stopping the Saints' vaunted run game (Mark Ingram & Alvin Kamara) will be a challenge, but here at home, the Falcons have been pretty stingy as they give up only 17.8 PPG. In fact, for as much talk as there's been about the Saints defense, Atlanta's is basically allowing the same number of points per game. Homefield advantage on a Thursday night matters, at least when we're dealing with two competitive teams and I see the Falcons winning one that they "need to have." 10* Atlanta

10* Northern Iowa (8:00 ET): Two typically strong mid-major programs square off tonight in Cedar Falls w/ N Iowa hosting TX-Arlington. The host Panthers, despite struggling last season, figure to be one of the big beneficiaries of Wichita State leaving the Missouri Valley for greener pastures. TX-Arlington is the favorite to win the Sun Belt. Last year, the Mavericks upset both St. Mary's and Texas in non-conf play, but ultimately fell short of their goal of making the NCAA Tournament (did win conf tourney). Both programs are off to strong starts this season w/ UT-Arlington at 7-1 and Northern Iowa at 6-2. But it's the latter's defense and homecourt advantage that should prove to be the difference-makers in this one. 

UT-Arlington has lost just the one time (by a single point at Alabama!), but they've also been involved in a number of close games. They have three wins by exactly five points so far, including the last one, which came at home against North Texas as a 16-pt favorite. Of note is that in the last two games, the Mavericks have scored their fewest number of points in a game this season. That benchmark will again be tested tonight when they face a N Iowa team permitting only 58.5 PPG overall and just 50.0 here in Cedar Falls. Only North Carolina in the season opener has topped 68 against the Panthers. This game will arguably be decided by which team defends the three-point line better. I believe that will be the home team.

Northern Iowa's only two losses this year have been to North Carolina and Villanova. That's some pretty exclusive company. They're off an extended break here, having not played since last Wednesday when they downed UNLV 77-68 (in overtime) as a one-point favorite on this floor. Perhaps RPI is an outdated metric, but it's worth noting it currently has Northern Iowa at #26 in the nation! The Panthers rank fifth nationally in scoring defense. The fact they were able to still beat UNLV, despite shooting a woeful 2 of 14 from three-point range is actually a mark in their favor. Bennett Koch led the way w/ a career-high 30 points and Tywhon Pickford is #12 in the nation in rebounding. This is a good team, that's rested and playing at home. The situation favors them. 10* Northern Iowa

10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): Coming into the season, the Bucks were thought to be a much safer "bet" than the Pistons to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. However, at least so far, Detroit has been the better of the two squads. They've opened up at 14-9 SU w/ wins over both Golden State and Boston (both on the road!). Milwaukee, meanwhile, stands at a somewhat disappointing 12-10 SU following its loss to the Celtics on Monday. But, since the Eric Bledsoe trade, things have gotten significantly better w/ the Bucks winning 8 of 12 overall. They haven't gotten to play many home games lately, so this is one they need to "make count" as it comes against a team they are not too far behind in the standings. Lay the small number.

These Central Division rivals have already split a pair of early season meetings w/ each winning on its home floor. Both games took place in early November and it was a bad shooting night (35.3%) that cost the Pistons in a 99-95 loss the last time they came calling here. Interestingly enough, the Bucks were larger favorites for that game, so there's been an adjustment by the oddsmakers. While "time will tell," I still view Milwaukee as more likely to finish higher in the standings, so there's some value on them here, I suppose. I won w/ the Over in their last game (at Boston) where Giannis Antekounmpo's 40 points were not enough in a 111-100 loss. The problem was they allowed the Celtics to shoot 55% from the floor. Thankfully, the Pistons are nowhere near that prolific and average only 101.8 PPG on the road. 

Offensively, the Bucks have scored at least 100 pts in six consecutive games, averaging 107.5 PPG during that stretch. Detroit comes in off a tough 96-93 loss at San Antonio where they wilted late (scored only 40 pts in 2H). It was their third loss in a row as tonight marks the final chance to avoid a winless road trip. The last two games were both close, but note they did trail Philly big on Saturday before a late rally fell short. While the Pistons have been strong as underdogs so far this season (8-3 ATS), the number here is just too short to help them much and I don't see the Bucks losing. 10* Milwaukee

10* Under Blackhawks/Capitals (8:05 ET): Both of these perennial powers are off to slower than expected starts this season. Chicago is actually closer to the bottom than the top in what is shaping up to be a very tight Central Division race. That's thanks to a four-game losing streak, though at least they can still say they've outscored the opposition (+9 goal differential) so far. Washington resides in the middle of the pack in the Metro (33 points, four more than Chicago) after posting B2B wins and they've scored the same number of goals that they have allowed over the course of 28 games. No read on the side here, but I like the Under in what should be a very competitive matchup.

The Blackhawks are top 10 in the league in both goals scored and allowed with them ranking higher on the latter side of the ledger (5th). The offense has scored two goals or less in three of the losses during the current four-game slide and if there has been one consistent issue for this franchise the last few seasons, it has been a weak power play unit. This year, the 'Hawks rank just 29th (16.1 percent) when on the man advantage and they're just 1 for their last 13. Coach Quenneville is reportedly shaking up his lines for tonight, but it remains to be seen whether or not that will have any effect. In goal, however, Anton Forsberg continues to be a pleasant surprise for the team. He has a .934 save percentage his L4 appearances as Corey Crawford continues to recover from a lower body injury.

The Caps' offense has been very middle of the road (15th in goals per game), which is a surprise. They're not even averaging 3.0 gpg. I should mention that while Chicago's power play has struggled, they are 4th in penalty killing, so I'm not too concerned about penalties being much of a factor this evening. Like Chicago, Washington is solid in goal as long as Braden Holtby is between the pipes. Holtby has an excellent .939 save percentage this season on home ice. The Under is 10-5 in all Washington home games this season, including 6-3 when the number is 5.5. The Caps have scored four times in each of their last three wins, but I don't see that happening here. Also, the Blackhawks were shut out in last year's visit to D.C. 10* Under Blackhawks/Capitals

10* Harvard (7:00 ET): The Crimson were expected to be a contender in the Ivy League this season w/ LY's champ Princeton not expected to be as strong. But it's been a rocky start to the season. Granted, you can put blame on the fact they haven't played a home game since November 12th. (Tonight marks their eighth consecutive game away from home). But the Crimson have been favored three times in their last six outings and lost all of them. At least the majority of the games, save for ones at St. Mary's and Northeastern, were close. In fact, all but two Harvard games this season have been decided by single digits, four of them by six points or less. Tonight, it's "their turn" to win a close one. 

Fordham comes in w/ a 3-4 SU record despite not having played any "true" road games. They did go down to Jamaica for two games and were handled in both, including a 24-point loss to Florida State. As is the case w/ Harvard, the vast majority of the Rams' games this year have been tight ones. However, losing to East Tenn State at home was not a "great look" nor was beating Maine by only one there on Saturday. In fact, they needed OT to get by the Black Bears on what was a terrible shooting night for both teams. This is not a deep Fordham team and two players remain questionable for undisclosed reasons (Bunting, Ohams). I should also mention that Fordham has won only once in its last six tries as a home dog of three points or less.

These teams met last year w/ Harvard winning by 12 (64-52) on its home floor. Fordham fell victim to dreadful shooting again, as in a 33.3 FG% overall, which included 5 of 19 from three-point range. It should be noted that Harvard has taken on a far more challenging schedule thus far, including a game at Kentucky their last time out (only lost by 9, despite shooting 37.1%). They've yet to really have a great shooting night this season, but thankfully Fordham (40.7% overall) has been even colder. Harvard did make 12 three-pointers against Kentucky. 10* Harvard 

10* Over Ducks/Golden Knights (10:05 ET): Few, if any, could have predicted that Vegas would be ahead of Anaheim at this - or any other - point of the season. But here we are in December and it's the expansion Golden Knights that are a lot closer to the 1st place Kings in the Pacific than are the Ducks (by 10 points!). How Vegas has pulled this off is pretty remarkable given the lack of health between the pipes. They've used a total of six different goaltenders thus far, by far the highest number in the league. Anaheim, meanwhile, has seen its scoring punch dissapate as they come into tonight ranked 28th in the league in goals per game. Despite that, I'm forecasting an Over in this all-important division matchup. 

Anaheim has won only one of its last seven games and ironically that came against the Central Division-leading Blues. That was the start of this rather lengthy six-game road trip, which ends tonight in Sin City. They're off losses in both Columbus and Nashville, the latter coming in a shootout Saturday night. The road trip started w/ a game in LA, then Chicago, then St. Louis, then Columbus, then Nashville. So what might this team have left in the tank? I expect tired legs defensively and for the Ducks to give up their fair share of goals here. They've already allowed 16 total in the L4 games, including seven in a bad loss at Chicago. 

The Golden Knights are 10-2 SU at home, the best start on home ice EVER by an expansion team. The fact that they've done it despite routine strong swaths of opposing fans being in attendance is pretty remarkable. The key is that they average almost 4.0 goals per game here. The Over is 16-8-2 in all of their games this season, including 6-1 at home when the O/U line is 5.5. The only prior meeting between these two sides took place in Anaheim and Vegas won 4-2. The Ducks are giving up the most shots per game in the league currently and I continue to be wary of the Knights' goaltending situation. 10* Over Ducks/Golden Knights

10* Portland (10:05 ET): The Blazers are catching the Wizards in the second night of B2B road games and that's an ideal time to strike considering just how awful the Wiz looked last night in Utah (lost 116-69!) and the fact they are still w/o John Wall. So what, on paper, could have very well been an "even" matchup is now anything but w/ Portland having had the last two days off to stew over a home loss to New Orleans. That actually made it B2B home loss for the Blazers, who also fell here to Milwaukee, 103-91, back on November 30th. I can't see them losing another; not w/ how wounded the opponent is here and given the situation. Lay the points.

Washington has not shot well recently as they are making only 41.6% of all field goal attempts the L5 games. Quite frankly, they haven't shot the ball very well away from home all year (43.4%) and that means trouble against Portland team that holds its opponents to 43.9% shooting and is #4 in defensive efficiency. There's no two ways around it; last night was a complete disaster for the Wizards as they shot just 28.7% from the field while allowing the Jazz to shoot 56.8%. That's one of the biggest FG% discrepancies I have ever seen in a single game. It was the fewest points scored by any team in a game this season and the Wiz have now lost six of their last nine overall.

This will be the 2nd time Portland has gotten to face Washington w/o Wall as they were actually the 1st opponent after the All-Star suffered his knee injury. The Blazers won by three out in D.C., which was the 2nd of B2B road games for them and near the end of a long East Coast trip. The spot is far more desirable this time around and the team will come in highly motivated after losing B2B games outright as home favorites. 10* Portland 

10* Texas Tech (8:00 ET): There are 13 remaining unbeatens in College Basketball, so now seems like as good a time as any to start "picking them off." One of the LEAST heralded from the "lucky 13" is Nevada, who not only brings a perfect 8-0 SU record to the table, but is also 7-0-1 ATS. That push came last time out in an 11-pt win at UC Irvine. Credit the Wolfpack for playing a decent number of "true" road games to this point (this will be #5), but this marks their furthest trip East to date and it's the second in four days. Nevada may be the team that's ranked in the latest AP poll (#22), but Texas Tech is higher in virtually every reasonable power rankings system and is the deserved favorite here. They hand Nevada it's first loss tonight! 

Texas Tech is off its first loss, which took place Thursday against Seton Hall, who is also ranked. That game was played in Madison Square Garden and the Red Raiders (who in the interest of full disclosure, I was ON) blew a three-point halftime lead, eventually losing by 10. What was most disconcerting was the defense. Tech came into the game ranked 5th nationally in scoring defense (55.3 PPG) and 2nd in FG% allowed (33.5%). But they allowed Seton Hall to shoot better than 50% from the floor, including 11 of 22 from three-point range. The Pirates accounted for the two highest scoring halves of basketball against the Red Raiders this season.

I don't see a repeat of that from Nevada. Yes, the Wolfpack come in averaging a healthy 85 PPG. But now it's time for their scoring average to take a tumble as this will - easily - be their toughest test to date. Texas Tech is a deep team; 10 players average 10 minutes or more and at least 4.9 points per game. They are led by Keenan Evans' 15.9 PPG. Again, I point to the defense as Nevada isn't Seton Hall and back at home, the Red Raiders should reassert their dominance at that end of the floor. In terms of the situation, it clearly favors Texas Tech, who was off this weekend, while Nevada is playing the second of B2B road games. 10* Texas Tech

8* West Virginia (7:00 ET): For the third straight year, these schools are renewing acquaintances and both come in ranked in the Top 20. Virginia, at #15, is one of the 13 remaining schools nationally w/o a loss. WVU, who checks in at #20 in the latest poll, lost it's first game by 23 to Texas A&M. But the Mountaineers haven't lost since and for the 1st time in the three-year span, get to host the Hoos. They're hoping for a repeat of LY when they pulled the upset in Charlottesville, 66-57 as eight-point dogs. They wound up making a run to the Sweet 16 before being ousted by eventual runner-up Gonzaga. Virginia, who two years ago made the Elite 8, was eliminated in the 2nd round by Florida.

Virginia has played one "true" road game thus far, but it was in-state against Va Commonwealth. They did win and cover, 76-67 as 6.5-pt chalk, but keep in mind the Rams were early on under the direction of a 1st year HC. This will clearly be the Hoos' biggest challenge to date against a fast-paced opponent that forces 22 turnovers per game. Virginia, who has held every opponent but Va Commonwealth to below 55 pts, plays at a very deliberate pace. So the outcome here will largely depend on tempo. Again, the Cavaliers handled Va Commonwealth's pressure well, but WVU is a different animal in Morgantown where they're winning by an average of basically 40 points per game! 

It was an ugly opener against A&M, but since then Bob Huggins' team hasn't looked back, scoring 83 or more in every game during a seven-game win streak. They topped 100 last time out against overmatched NJIT. Virginia has covered all but one of its games, but this is a short number they're taking against an opponent that's won 33 of its past 37 home games. I see Virginia falling for the first time here as everyone's going to lose eventually and now is the Hoos' time. 8* West Virginia

8* San Antonio (8:35 ET): Playing severely short-handed, the Spurs very nearly knocked off the Thunder last night, losing by only three and easily covering as 8.5-point dogs. They went into the game w/o Tony Parker, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Gay, Manu Ginobili (rest) and of course Kwahi Leonard (who has yet to play this season) and then lost Kyle Anderson to what is believed to be a MCL injury. Good thing they still have the best coach in the game. Greg Popovich is no dummy and while he essentially conceded victory on Sunday, he'll have a much stronger unit on the court Monday night at home. Note that Popovich also rested Pau Gasol for the entire second half last night. All the players, with the exceptions of Leonard and Anderson, are expected back tonight. That makes this spread, at home, seem way too low. Lay it!

Detroit is 0-2 on it current road swing w/ losses to Washington and Philadelphia. They trailed the 76ers by as many as 18 in the second half before a late rally started making Philly backers nervous. The Pistons are an impressive 7-1 SU/6-1-1 ATS vs. the Western Conference so far this season, including a win over Golden State! They've also beaten Boston. But the Spurs are a team that has given them fits through the years, especially here in San Antonio where the Pistons have won just 12 times in the last 43 years. The Spurs have swept the season series each of the last two seasons, including two double digit victories last year. Note that the Pistons lost Saturday night despite the 76ers shooting the ball at only a 40% clip. 

The Spurs still play outstanding defense and rebound no matter who is on the court, so they are a team that must be respected. They have actually inched slightly ahead of Boston for fewest points per game allowed in the league, though they remain slightly behind them in defensive efficiency. Based on how he coached last night, Popovich clearly was more concerned about this game and I'll put faith in that plan. With the top players returning, we should see a dramatic increase in production at the offensive end tonight as there's no way they'll shoot 40% for a second straight game. 8* San Antonio

10* Over Steelers/Bengals (8:30 ET): Along with the Patriots, the Steelers have somewhat "pulled away" from the pack in the AFC. They enter this game at 9-2, which is two fewer losses than every other team not named "New England." Tonight they look to continue their mastery of a Bengals team they have beaten five consecutive times, including 29-14 back in Week 7. I had the Over in that game, noting that (at the time) they were the only team in the league yet to have a single Over on its resume. The Under is still 8-3 in all Steelers' games this season, but all of a sudden the vaunted offense has awoken w/ B2B 30+ point efforts after not crossing that threshold even one time in the first nine games. I like the Over in the rematch as well.

Cincinnati started its season by being the first team since the 1930's to not score a single TD in its first two home games. That prompted a change at OC and since then, they've been okay, going 5-4 SU overall. They are off their second highest scoring game of the season, a 30-16 triumph over the winless Browns. Now, the Bengals two highest scoring games of the year have both been against Cleveland. Other than that, the offense has not topped 24 pts in any other game. But something to look for here is the propensity of the Steelers' secondary to give up big plays. Last week vs. Brett Hundley and Green Bay, Pittsburgh allowed THREE touchdown passes of 39+ yards. That was after giving up FIVE pass plays of 40+ yds the previous three weeks. So don't be surprised if Bengals' WR AJ Green has a big game tonight. Also, RB Joe Mixon is coming off a career-best day LW. 

On the flip side, the Steelers shouldn't have much trouble scoring in this game either. The Cincinnati defense ranks 28th in the league at stopping the run (126.6 YPG allowed), so Le'Veon Bell should have a big night. Yes, WR Antonio Brown (best WR in the league) is listed as questionable w/ a toe injury. But, whether he plays or not, does NOT affect this selections. It's a low O/U line, one that can easily be exceeded. 10* Over Steelers/Bengals