10* Minnesota (8:05 ET):  This is a situation where both teams have something to play for, yet the Wild clearly have more on the line as they are trying to lock down the final playoff spot out West. Despite three straight losses, a win here accomplishes that feat and they happen to be at home where they are 21-14-4 this season.  Of course, San Jose certainly has shown it doesn't mind being the road team as they are a league best 27-10-3 away from home, but this unusual home vs. road dichotomy of theirs has to reverse itself, sooner or later right. Yes, the Sharks have something to play for too as they are going for home ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs, but that's looking less and less likely.  I like the Wild here.

San Jose is off a road win, 3-2 in Nashville. They are probably the only team in the league happy to leave home, where they've lost four of five (including one to Vancouver on Thursday) and are just 17-19-3 for the season.  But what's unusual about this home vs. road split is that the stats don't necessarily indicate that the team plays any better on the road. In fact, if anything, they play worse! They are actually outshot - on a per game basis - on the road, which is not the case at home.  The key has been that for whatever reason the puck seems to find the back of the net more for them on the road.  Moving forward and this could be potentially dangerous if they don't have the home ice advantage for their first round series, I see the Sharks struggling to maintain their outstanding road record.

The Wild come in off a really embarrassing setback - 5-1 at Winnipeg - and that was after losing to Ottawa and Detroit by identical 3-2 scores. The team had been rolling before that w/ six straight victories, so I view this as just "giving a little back" and not a sign of any real problems.  They should be the more motivated team here tonight.  10* Minnesota

8* Florida (7:35 ET):  Unlike my Over play in this package, here we have one team definitely playing for something and that's Florida, currently in first place in the Atlantic, four points clear of Tampa Bay thanks to a three-game win streak. With only three games to play, the Panthers do have a chance to clinch the division tonight, that is if they win and the Lightning lose (at the Rangers).  Yes, it's the second night of a back to back, on the road, but Montreal has little (if nothing) to play for here and just got beat down in Miami, 4-3, on Saturday. The Habs never really recovered from the Carey Price injury this season and I don't see any reason whey they'd be likely to "get off the mat" tonight seeing as this isn't even the home finale. Also, they have lost all three previous matchups with the Panthers this season.

Nobody had Florida winning the Atlantic at the start of the year.  I question their viability in the playoffs a bit as they are only 19th in Corsi & 20th in Fenwick and are likely to be matched up against one of the two New York teams (Rangers or Islanders). But for our purposes tonight, they should be just fine against a team they just beat three nights ago. Now, critics will point to the fact that they trailed 3-0 in that game before mounting a furious comeback, but I look at it as if Montreal couldn't beat Florida when spotted a three-goal lead (unlikely to happen again here), how can they beat them? The other two meetings this season were both multi-goal wins by the Panthers and the Habs scored just two goals total. 

Seeing as Florida had no problems last night w/ Toronto, I don't think that being in a back to back matters all that much. They were up 3-0 at the end of two periods yday and at one point enjoyed a 14-1 edge in shots.  No Panthers team has ever won more games than this one and they rank in the top eight in both goals scored and allowed.  They've already won here in the Bell Centre once this season when unrested, that was 4-1 back on March 15th and was no fluke as Florida finished w/ a 36-28 edge in shots. As started earlier, the Habs simply never recovered from the injury to Price as they are 19-33-4 their L56 games overall.  8* Florida

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET):  The Sixers are....favored?  You would think that such a thing would have me running to the other side, but it's obviously important to understand why the line is what it is and in this case, their opponent (New Orleans) is very injured (no Anthony Davis) and ripe for a fall (are actually off B2B wins).  Plus, crazy as it sounds, Philadelphia has been a great bet in the chalk role this season, going a perfect 3-0 ATS! They've beaten Brooklyn, Phoenix and the Lakers all here at home, winning two of those games by double digits! Those would of course be the three other worst teams in the league (not including themselves) and New Orleans is probably next in the pecking order. The Sixers are trying to avoid matching the 1972-73 squad for the league's worst all-time single season record (need one more win).  This is their chance to do it.  Lay the points.

Other than Memphis, New Orleans has probably been the most banged up team in the league this year. Right now, no team has more injuries than this one as Anthony Davis, Ryan Anderson, Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holliday and Norris Cole are all out.  Those are their top five scorers (if you're keeping track at home), their two top rebounders and the top two in assists.  Still, they've somehow managed to post B2B victories, beating Denver and Brooklyn, the latter coming Tuesday as the Pelicans shot 55.3% from the floor in a 106-87 rout on the road. Considering the current state of the team, I just cannot see them winning two in a row on the road where they are only 9-29 SU for the year.

An analysis of early line movement here reveals that despite a majority of tickets being written on the Pelicans side, the number has still gone up, which is a likely reflection of the so-called "smart money" being on the side of the Sixers.  It makes sense because the vast majority of bettors are going to see that New Orleans has won B2B games while Philly is on a 12-gm losing streak.  But the 76ers certainly have been competitive in their last two games, first taking Charlotte down to the wire on Friday and then doing the same vs. Indiana the next night. The final scores may not reflect it, but those were close games most of the way.  Here, they finally get that elusive 10th win of the season. 10* Philadelphia

8* Over Sabres/Devils (7:05 ET):  It's always a low total when New Jersey is involved as the Devils are the lowest scoring team in the league (2.2 goals per game) currently, not to mention also average the fewest number of shots per game as well (24.4).   But while still maintaining a seventh place standing in terms of goals allowed, they really haven't been living up to that ranking of late as in the L2 games, they've given up a trio of goals each time. Here they host a Buffalo side that has scored exactly four goals in each of its last three games, which sounds like trouble as goalie Corey Schneider is still working his way back from a knee injury.  I had the Over in the Sabres last game (4-3 win at the Rangers) and as noted there, this team has scored multiple goals in every game but one since March 2nd. That's 14 out of a possible 15 games. Take the Over again here.

With New Jersey, scoring has certainly been an issue all season long, but don't discount the impact their power play can have as that's where four of their last five goals scored have come from and for the season they actually rank 8th w/ the man advantage.  Of course, they need to start getting more shots on goal when at even strength, but what about how many they've been allowing? In the last three games alone, opponents have 116 shots against the Devils, which is obviously a ton and with Schneider still working his way back from the knee injury, that means trouble. Remember that Schneider had been struggling pre-injury and his save percentage is just .897 his L4 starts. He gave up three goals in his return Saturday night vs. Tampa Bay.

As for Buffalo, they've been scoring a lot lately (20 goals in L6 games), but they are also known for giving up their fair share as that number has been three or more in three of the past four games. On the road, opponents are averaging a whopping 33.0 shots per game against them and the Over is 13-7 if the total is 5.0 or less.  These two teams have played two very different games so far this season (both in Buffalo), one seeing just two goals scored and the other seeing seven. The Sabres are much better offensively now than they were back then w/ four players now having 20+ goals on the season.  8* Over Sabres/Devils

8* Under Astros/Yankees (1:05 ET):  This was one of a couple openers postponed due to inclement weather. That's probably just fine as far as the Yankees are concerned as the last time they had to face Dallas Keuchel, he shut them out right here in the Bronx. That was the American League Wild Card Game. There's no delaying the inevitable, however, and that's Keuchel is returning and we have the same scheduled pitching matchup here as we would have Monday as the reigning Cy Young winner is opposed by Masahiro Tanaka. With two top flight pitchers and cold temperatures projected yet again, I'm on the Under here as that's the way 10 of the last 14 Astros-Yankees matchups have gone.

Keuchel's domination of the Yankees last year was by no means limited to the Wild Card game. In three starts overall, he didn't allow a single run over 22 IP!  He allowed just 12 hits and one time went the distance. His strikeout to walk ratio was an incredible 28-2.   Remember, the Yankees' lineup that he will face Tuesday is the oldest in the league and was showing sharp signs of decline in the second half last year.  Are A-Rod, Carlos Beltran and Mark Texiera - all players over 35 - really going to combine for 83 home runs again? I think not. By the way, the Yankees weren't the only team Keuchel dominated last season. He finished second in the league in ERA, second in batting average, first in OBP, OPS, quality starts, ground ball percentage and fifth in KW ratio. You get the picture.

At the same time, I wouldn't be surprised if Houston's offense declined a bit this year as it will be tough to match 2015's total of 230 home runs, which were the most by any team in baseball the past five seasons. While Astros hitters were outstanding at hitting the ball out of the park, they were subpar in both batting average and OBP.   Enter Tanaka, who didn't necessarily pitch poorly in LY's Wild Card Game opposite Keuchel.  He did give up the two solo shots, but they were just that (solo shots) and allowed only two other hits over 5 IP.  Five of his first seven starts last year stayed Under the total.  In seven of the eight times these teams met LY, the losing side scored two runs or fewer. 8* Under Astros/Yankees

6* Puck Line Vancouver (10:05 ET):  Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking Vancouver +1.5.   Perhaps the Canucks being off back to back wins here makes this is a bit risky, especially with the Kings also happening to be off a loss.  But after nine straight losses, Vancouver was clearly due to turn things around and they have w/ a pair of road wins against division opponents that will be in the playoffs. Now they face the third of the Pacific's playoff entrants and do so on home ice where they're due to win (last home win was March 12th!).  I see them doing no worse than a one-goal loss here.

Only Nashville has taken more losses in either overtime or a shootout than has Vancouver this season.  The Canucks have 13 such defeats and a good number of them have come here at home. Of course, if tonight's game makes it past regulation, then we are guaranteed of a victory thanks to the puck line.  Overall, this team has lost 25 different times by one goal.  That accounts for just more than half of their overall defeats.  So factoring that into the overall season record, history says we have a 69 percent chance of success here, which I will certainly take. 

Helping the Canucks' cause here is the fact that LA is struggling to score right now as they have found the back of the net two times or less in six of their last eight games.  They rank just 14th in the league in terms of goals per game for the year.  They gave up 39 shots in Saturday's home loss to Dallas.  Interestingly, they have the same number of one-goal victories (25) as the Canucks do one-goal losses, so again, breaking into down into a percentage we have a very high success rate here. Only 27% of the time (21 in 78 games) have the Kings won by more than a one-goal margin.  I really like what the odds say here and think the puck line happens to be a tremendous value.  6* Puck Line Vancouver

10* Under Rockies/D'backs (9:40 ET):  Oddsmakers have this matchup priced as the most lopsided affair on the Opening Day slate and that makes sense as Colorado was terrible last year and they are on the road going up against Zack Grienke in his Arizona debut. Obviously, I'm going to stay away from the money line here, but I still anticipate that the home team won't have to come up to bat here in the bottom of the ninth and with a total of 7.5 (we saw how big that extra one-half run can be last night), Under is the play.  Avoiding those final three outs can often be the difference between a game going Over or staying Under and with the pitcher's ahead of the hitters this time of year, a low-scoring game here makes a lot of sense.

We think of Colorado as a high-scoring team and within the confines of always hitter-friendly Coors Field, that's true.  But take them out of that environment and they really struggle to score runs. In fact, they were the second lowest scoring team in all of MLB on the road last year, just one run ahead of last place Atlanta.  They actually had the fewest number of hits on the road of any team.  They were 30th in OBP, 29th in slugging and 30th in OPS.  They obviously faced Greinke many times last year as he was on the Dodgers and in 13 1/3 innings, they scored just four runs against him.  While Chase Field may not be as pitcher friendly as Dodger Stadium is, I expect the Rockies lineup to struggle again tonight.

Grienke arrives in the desert with plenty of fanfare as Arizona fans are banking on him making the team a contender alongside the Dodgers and Giants in the NL West. I'd caution them about that line of thinking, but the bottom line is Greinke should do his part as he's coming off a season where he posted a 1.66 ERA, the lowest by any pitcher in a season since Greg Maddux!  He looked good in the Spring as well w/ a 1.88 ERA in 14+ innings of work.  As long as his Rockies counterpart Jorge De La Rosa can hold up "his end of the bargain," then we will be just fine here. De La Rosa's final four starts of 2015 all stayed Under and as you might expect his numbers on the road (3.26 ERA) were much better than at home. 10* Under Rockies/D'backs

10* Villanova (9:20 ET):  And we're down to two.  Those two, Villanova and North Carolina both steamrolled their way into Monday's Title Game w/ the former producing the largest margin of victory in Final Four history (my *10* NCAA Game of the Year). Curiously, the "lookahead" line for this particular matchup had UNC -1.5, so I'm surprised to see a bigger number here, especially because I consider Villanova to be the better team.  Remember that the Wildcats have already ousted what was the tourney favorite (Kansas) and there other four wins have come by an average of 29 points per game.  UNC has won all five of its matchups by double digits, but the key here will be a 'Nova defense that's allowing just 60.6 PPG in the Tournament going against a Tar Heels squad that struggles to shoot from the outside.  I'm on the underdog here and would not be shocked at an outright upset. Take the points.

While both teams have been equally impressive in their respective runs to tonight's Title Game, Villanova has clearly faced a harder slate of opponents. They've gone against Iowa, Miami, Kansas and Oklahoma, all of whom spent significant time in the Top 15 this year.  Look at whom UNC has faced and you'll realize that they've been a bit "lucky" as really Indiana was the only perceived threat among the group of opponents.  They were favored by at least 9.5 in every other game and got to take on a six seed in the Elite 8 and then a seven seed in the Final Four. Meanwhile, Nova benefited from no such upsets, save for (I guess) facing a 2-seed in the Final Four.  In my analysis for that Nova-Oklahoma matchup, I made mention of the Wildcats' incredible ATS mark vs. non-conference teams, which has now reached 31-12 L43 (13-4 this season). Overall, Nova is 66-37 ATS in all games the L3 seasons.

The fact that Villanova is allowing just 60.6 PPG in the Tournament (especially considering the list of those opponents) is just as impressive as the fact they're averaging 84.8 (at 1.31 per possession).  Keep in mind they just held Kansas and Oklahoma, both of whom averaged over 80 PPG, to just 59 and 51 points respectively.  What's keeping this team undervalued is all the past NCAA Tournament failures, but that's all "water under the bridge" now.  I have them rated as the better of the two teams here, so naturally I'm all over them as a dog.  10* Villanova

8* Under Villanova/North Carolina (9:20 ET): Clearly, these two teams didn't get the memo about any kind of "stadium effect" NRG in Houston is supposed to have as they shot extraordinarily well in blowout wins Saturday.  In fact, Villanova was an absolutely otherworldly 71.4% from the field in their 44-point win over Oklahoma (my *10* Game of the Year), which was the second highest shooting percentage in any Final Four game in history.  Without question, they will not be shooting as well as they did Saturday here.  North Carolina went 53.8% against Syracuse's zone, but that includes an equally ridiculous 31 of 48 on two-point attempts, which also isn't going to be duplicated.  I assume you can see where I'm going here and that is Under the total.

I'd like to reiterate the history of poor shooting that has taken place here in Houston's NRG Stadium in tournaments past.  The venue has hosted a Final Four previously and that was in 2011 where none of the games saw more than 132 total points scored, including a Championship Game where the two teams involved (UConn and Butler) combined for just 94 points and a dreadful 10 of 44 shooting from three-point range.  This was also the site of last year's South Regional and again the results were disastrous for the offenses as they averaged only 124.5 PPG while the Under went 3-0 (by a combined 43.5 points). Teams shot less than 40 percent overall from the field and 26.7% from three-point range!  Now, both of these teams were unaffected Saturday, but the history must be respected. Plus, both games still barely went Over the total, only doing so in the final minute.

North Carolina is not a good three-point shooting team, in fact, they are quite terrible.  They opened the game vs. Syracuse by missing their first 10 attempts from behind the arc and while they finished 4 of 17, they shoot at just a 31.3% clip outside of Chapel Hill for the season.  Villanova is giving up just 60.6 PPG in the Tournament and held Kansas and Oklahoma (both of whom averaged more than 80 PPG) to a total of 110 pts.  The offensive efficiency won't be as high in this game as it was on Saturday and it should be noted that we're getting a higher number to work with here compared to either national semifinal.  8* Villanova/North Carolina

10* Over Lightning/Islanders (7:05 ET):  Though it's certainly fair to say that both of the offenses involved here have been somewhat disappointing this year, the fact is that each has the capability to put a game Over the total by itself and thus I'm all over the Over in this one.  The Islanders were shutout in their last game (5-0 by the Penguins), but that result is quite rare for this club as by my count they'd been blanked only three times previously all season and twice they came back to scored five goals in the next game.  Furthermore, they'd scored four goals in three of their previous contests before Saturday's loss. The Lightning just scored 21 goals on a six-game homestand.  Look for plenty of goals in this one.

For evidence of what these teams are capable of, look no further than a meeting that took place not even 10 days ago as it was a 7-4 game in Tampa won by the home team.   The teams combined for 73 shots and all 11 goals were scored at even strength as both teams were 0 for 3 on the power play.  Now, there was an explosion of scoring in the third period, particularly on the Tampa Bay side, note that there were a total of six goals already scored by the end of the second period.  Quite frankly, I'm pretty stunned that the O/U line for this one didn't open at 5.5.  Some might point to the absence of Steven Stamkos (likely out for the rest of the year) as reason to doubt the Lightning's offense, but remember that they are w/o a key defenseman as well (Anton Stralman). 

The Islanders too are missing some key pieces, one of them being goaltender Jaroslav Halak.  Thomas Greiss has turned in somewhat of a yeoman's effort in his place, but at some point the workload is going to begin to wear on him. He was off Saturday, but still has a save percentage below .900 his L4 starts.   At the other end of the ice, the Lightning's Ben Bishop has struggled in two starts this year vs. the Isles, allowing a total of seven goals on just 53 shots.  10* Over Lightning/Islanders

8* Seattle (4:05 ET):  These are two teams that I feel are likely to trend in opposite directions for 2016 and thus we've got a chance to take care of an incorrect pricing that is based on last year's results.  Texas was the surprise AL West winner in 2015 as they outscored opponents by only 18 runs over the course of the season.  Meanwhile, Seattle (whom many picked to win the division before the season started) struggled all year long and finished 10 games below .500. But, clearly, I feel the Rangers are due to regress this season while a M's team whose success (or lack of it) the L3 years has been directly tied to their bullpen should improve rather dramatically. You have to love Felix Hernandez at this price. Take Seattle.

Though he struggled a bit (by his lofty standards) in the second half of 2015, Hernandez still was just one win shy of matching a career-high for a season. He had his usual strong first half and if there's one day where King Felix is guaranteed to succeed, it's Opening Day, as he is 6-0 all-time w/ a 1.49 ERA and 62 K's in eight starts.  The team has won all eight games.  One thing is for sure and that's Hernandez loves facing the Rangers as he posted a 5-0 record against them last year as in 34 IP he allowed just seven runs on 20 hits!  Earlier I mentioned the M's bullpen and while hopefully they don't get much use here this afternoon, I do expect this group to improve rather dramatically on LY's 25th place ranking (were 1st in 2014). 

As for Texas, defensively, I have my concerns.  Some are projecting them to be the worst team in the field in all of baseball and we saw plenty of folly there when they got eliminated by Toronto in LY's Divisional Round. Opening Day starter Cole Hamels has reportedly been sick.  Hamels was a big reason this team surged in the second half of last season, but so too was Shin Soo-Choo and he won't be matching 2015's level of production. Hamels did face Seattle three times after coming over from Philadelphia; he lost the first time and was roughed up the second (won the third). Believe it or not, despite the respective finishes to the season, Seattle had a winning head to head record against Texas in 2015 at 12-7.  8* Seattle

10* Under Stars/Ducks (9:05 ET):  Two teams with very different styles of play clash Sunday night in Anaheim as the Ducks (#3 in goals allowed) host the Stars (#1 in goals scored).  Dallas "got me" on Saturday, winning 3-2 in Los Angeles (battle of 1st place teams), which makes it seven wins in the last eight games for them overall. Anaheim, meanwhile, suffered a rare loss (3-2 to Vancouver!).  I'm staying away from the side here, but the total looks "appetizing" to me considering the "extra" one-half goal we get to work with and the fact the Stars are 11-3 Under when on an unbeaten streak of three or more games this season. Take the Under.

Anaheim's offense has really taken off during the second half of the season, a major reason why they're now threatening the Kings for the top spot in the Pacific. But, though I did take them Over against the Canucks (pushed), it is important to remember that at one point this season, they ranked dead last in the league in scoring.  Friday's game was only 1-1 entering the third period.  Of course, despite allowing two goals in the third period of that game, goaltending remains a strength, although it hasn't been quite as sharp lately.  But tonight's starter John Gibson still sports a .929 save percentage here at home for the season.

Dallas sports the best offense in the game, but they have allowed two goals or less in four straight games, which is why they've won all of them.  The Under has actually cashed in the last two as both games saw only five total goals scored.  They did get off 39 shots against the Kings yesterday, a shocking number, but figure to not get anywhere near that here as the Ducks are allowing just 27.2 for the season here at home.  10* Under Stars/Ducks

8* Under Mets/Royals (8:35 ET):   We're getting a World Series rematch right off the bat and Mets fans clearly will be hoping for a different result than what we saw last Fall when their team was ousted rather easily (just five games).   I'll be looking for a different result as well, only with the total, as all five World Series games went Over.  I fully expect this number to get bet up to 7.5 some time on Sunday, which will create additional value, but with the pitchers typically "ahead" of the hitters this time of year, that added value probably won't even be needed as this should be a low-scoring game on Opening Night.

Matt Harvey will toe the rubber for the Mets in this one, trying to build off an impressive 2015.  He allowed 3 ER in his Game 1 start in LY's Fall Classic, but on just five hits.  There was of course a much publicized debate about his innings limit at that time, and in the series' deciding game (Game 5), manager Terry Collins yanked him after eight innings and disaster struck with the bullpen, who allowed five runs in the top of the 12th. Harvey himself allowed just two runs on five hits in that game (9 K's), so really he pitched well both times against the Royals. He is coming off an outstanding season overall w/ a 2.87 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in 33 starts.  Over his final 17 starts that ERA was down to 2.05 and he allowed just six home runs. Like every other Mets starter, the fastball is his "go-to" pitch.

The Royals will counter here with Edinson Volquez.  While the Mets actually led the NL in runs scored on the road, I have reason to believe their offense won't be nearly as prolific this season.  For starters, Yoenis Cespedes can't possibly be as ridiculous as he was down the stretch last year.  Cespedes went just 3 for 20 at the plate in last year's World Series though as Royals pitchers went after him at the top of the strike zone.  Volquez pitched opposite Harvey both times in LY's Fall Classic and gave up only five runs in 12 IP. He had problems with his control in Game 5 and if that were to happen again here, it likely means a "short leash" as KC has an outstanding bullpen, one that could easily shut the Mets lineup down yet again. Last year's Opening Night game saw just three total runs scored. I look for something similar here. 8* Under Mets/Royals

8* St. Louis (8:05 ET): After allowing just one goal over a five-game stretch, the Blues lost in stunning fashion Friday night, 6-5 at home to the Bruins.  That result, coupled with a Dallas win yday, leaves them four points back (of first place) in the Central with just four games to play (Stars have only three games left).  Getting the deficit down to two would be huge and fortunately here, St. Louis is facing one of the teams it recently shut down, Colorado, whom they beat 3-1 earlier in the week.  Considering the kind of goaltending this team has gotten recently, I'm willing to write the last game off as an aberration.

Brian Elliott, who had been ridiculous recently for the Blues, simply had an off night vs. Boston.  Jake Allen, who came on in relief Friday, will get the start here.  Allen has struggled in the past vs. Colorado, losing twice to them this season, but I feel he is primed for a strong showing here.  The Avalanche have dropped four of five and have scored two goals or fewer in all four losses.  St. Louis allowed just 21 shots when these teams met last Tuesday and overall, the Avs have been outshot badly these last five games, by 11.6 per game in fact!  That's a massive discrepancy and considering they allow 32.3 shots per game for the season (second most), they figure to be at another disadvantage here.  

Prior to Friday's loss, the Blues had gone 10-2 in March and they had a big edge in shots during a five-game win streak.  With all the focus being on the goaltending, it should be pointed out that the offense has scored four or more goals in seven of its last 10 games.  Quite impressive.  The Avs, meanwhile, are trending in an opposite direction and while still alive for the final playoff spot in the West, they've been outscored by 15 goals this season.  They were outshot 47-19 by Washington Friday night.  8* St. Louis

10* New York (7:35 ET):  Last night's Indiana game treated me well as I had the Over, but a late surge by the Pacers was needed for their backers to earn a cover. Considering who the opponent was (Philadelphia), that's not a particularly encouraging sign, especially after the team had dumped four of its previous five games against the spread.  Here, we find them, in the second game of a back to back, laying points on the road to a Knicks team that came out victorious Friday here at home vs. Brooklyn.  Granted, the Nets aren't any good either, but it was New York's largest margin of victory (14 points) since a March 9th trouncing of Phoenix. This line should be closer to a pick 'em according to the power rankings. Take the points.

The Pacers actually trailed the Sixers (by three) entering the fourth quarter last night before outscoring the league's worst team 41-25 the rest of the way.  Yet they were actually DOWN by six at one point in the fourth and it was a tie game with just 3:39 remaining.  So, it really was a late surge (17-4 run to close the game) that stole the cover thanks to five Philly turnovers in the final four minutes.   Indiana still has a losing road record (17-21 SU) and keep in mind that last night's tough battle with Philly came on the heels of bad home losses to the Magic and Bulls.  They are just 5-10 straight up in the second game of a back to back this season as well. I haven't even mentioned yet how the Sixers played short-handed last night!

The Knicks may be a bit short-handed here as well, but that doesn't mean they aren't a great value. It was a three-point game in Indiana back in February (Knicks covered as 6-pt dogs), so again, this line should be closer to pick 'em.  Defensively, the Knicks have surprised recently by holding four of their last five opponents under 100 points.  Note that they beat the Nets w/o either Jose Calderon or Kristaps Porzingis in the starting lineup. Winning outright here is obviously a greater challenge, but I certainly give them a shot at home and note this team has really only been blown out once since St. Patrick's Day (in Cleveland). 10* New York

10* LA Clippers (3:35 ET): Personally, I'm stunned that this line isn't higher considering the Clips will be at full strength (Jordan, Paul, Redick all rested last game) and that includes Blake Griffin, who makes his long anticipated return Sunday afternoon.  Yes, Griffin is reportedly still dealing with a quad tear. But even w/o his services this line would be too low as Washington continues to sport a negative efficiency rating in spite of its fleeting playoff hopes.  The Wiz have won only two of their last six games, the wins coming at the expense of the Lakers and Sunday, while the Clips minus all those players still found a way to almost beat Oklahoma City its last time out (lost 119-117 as 17-pt underdogs!). Lay the points here.

Overall, LA comes into this afternoon's contest riding a four-game ATS win streak. In addition to what would have been a monumental upset of OKC, they've also posted three double digit victories during this time frame, two of them coming here at Staples Center.  After watching the Clips score 117 points w/o their four of their top five scorers Friday night, I see no reason why we shouldn't be expecting another big offensive performance here w/ the team now at "full strength."  Washington is somewhat of a disaster defensively (allows 105.1 PPG on the road) and recently gave up 120 in a loss to Sacramento. The first time these teams met (Clips w/o Griffin), it was a 108-91 LA beatdown (in D.C.). Overall, the Clips are 7-1 ATS vs. the Southeast Division this year.

Not only is Washington bad defensively, but on offense they are very inefficient. By now, everyone is aware of the fast pace (5th in the league) the team intends to play at, but the problem has been that they are just 22nd in efficiency, averaging just 1.02 points per possession.  For a frame of reference, the Clippers rank 6th in offensive efficiency.  This is also the Wizards' fifth consecutive game out West (over an 8-day span) and they didn't even get the benefit of playing consecutively in Los Angeles (trip started last Sunday vs. the Lakers). So, fatigue could definitely be a factor here. Before Friday night's win and cover at lowly Phoenix, the Wiz were just 7-14 ATS when coming off three straight road games. 10* LA Clippers

8* Oklahoma City (3:30 ET):  I'd have to say that Houston has been one of my top go-against teams this season in NBA.  They were due to "give some back" anyway after league-leading 58% ATS rate last season and this year they simply have not been that good as is reiterated by an efficiency rating that's been "in the red" virtually all season long. They are actually pretty lucky that the West is top-heavy and thus not very deep because in the past a .500 record could not get you into the playoffs in this Conference.  Right now, they are two games below the "Mendoza Line" and trail Dallas/Utah by one game. I know that means they are desperate and have a lot to play for, but still, the Thunder are simply much better than what this pointspread indicates.

Perhaps the reason for this short line is the fact that OKC struggled to beat a severely undermanned Clippers team its last time out.  That game saw them prevail by just two, although considering who LA was sitting (Paul, Redick and Jordan) and the line ballooning to -17, I think it would actually be understandable that OKC would overlook the game entirely.  It also hurt that the Clippers somehow went 16 for 29 from three-point range in the game.  That made it two straight ATS losses for the Thunder as w/o Kevin Durant they lost outright in Detroit, who held them to 82 points. Maybe the Rockets are capable of the kind of three-point proliferation we saw from the Clippers in the last game, but certainly not the kind of defense we saw from the Pistons. By the way, OKC has won 9 of its last 10 overall.

  Now Houston is 3-0 ATS vs. OKC this year, but that includes two covers on the road when they were getting way more points than they are here.  Of late, the Rockets have not played well, dropping five of seven and one of those wins was a massive comeback against a LeBron-less Cleveland squad.  Defensively, this is just a terrible team as they give up 106.6 points per game, which should be feasted upon by the second most efficient offensive team in the league.  Houston is off an outright loss (were 6-pt favorites) here at home to what had been a struggling Chicago squad.  I don't see this step up in class going well for them. 8* Oklahoma City

8* Edmonton (10:05 ET):  The Battle of Alberta is renewed for one final time this season and nothing except pride is really on the line tonight.  Then again, neither team probably wants to finish in last place, which is where Edmonton currently is.  But the Oilers can possibly climb out of the basement if they were to win here, a result that would bring them to just one point back of the rival Flames. As my regulars will attest to, I've had a great deal of success down the "home stretch" of this NHL season by simply backing the home side in a matchup of two non-contenders.  That's what I'll do here.

Typically, Calgary has been the team that can claim provincial supremacy.  They have taken 10 of the 14 matchups over the last three seasons, including six of seven played here in Edmonton.  But it was the Oilers taking the last one, here at home, by a score of 2-1.  That game was decided in a shootout, so it's actually been eight straight visits where the Flames have not lost in regulation here. This will of course be the final visit, not just this season, but ever as Rexall Place (Oilers home since 1974!) will be no more starting next season.  I anticipate that the meaning of this particular matchup will not be lost on the Edmonton players, particularly the ones that have been around the last few seasons.  In what looks like a relatively meaningless game on paper, it won't be so meaningless to some of the Oilers players and certainly to the fans.

  Both teams are off B2B losses, losing to the same two teams (Anaheim and Los Angeles). While both Calgary losses came out on the road, Edmonton lost here at home to the Ducks on Monday. But they've been off ever since, allowing them to prepare for this next week when they'll be closing up shop at Rexall Place. They are even off for the next three days following this game!  I expect this to be two points that the Oilers REALLY want and remember, the Flames are dead last in the league in number of goals allowed per game, including 4.6 in their last five.  8* Edmonton

8* Syracuse (8:45 ET): Some were surprised that the Orange didn't open as double digit underdogs for this National Semifinal vs. still-heavily favored North Carolina, but I for one was not as there hasn't been a double digit spread in any Final Four game in the last 15 years. For the record, I think the underdog is actually a little undervalued heading into this one as this will be their third "crack" at the Tar Heels and with double revenge on their mind, they're a strong play plus the points. Question the inclusion of Jim Boeheim's team among the field of 68 all you want, but the fact is that they have played remarkably well for more than 80% of the total game time (did fall behind Virginia before stunning rally) since the Tournament got underway.  Also, Syracuse is a perfect 10-0 ATS the L10 times it has taken the court with five or six days rest, including 3-0 this season.  Take the points.

Looking at the two meetings from the regular season, both won by North Carolina, the final margins were 11 and 5 points. Both games featured terrible three-point shooting from each side and given this rubber match takes place in Houston's NRG Stadium, I'd expect that trend to continue.  The key to the Tar Heels' 84-73 victory at the Carrier Dome back on January 9th was that they shot 29 of 45 on two-point attempts, which won't be duplicated here, as that was Boeheim's first game back from his well-publicized suspension.  Points off turnovers were also huge for UNC (in both games) as they averaged 16.5 per game. But be aware that Syracuse has turned the ball over 10 times or fewer in each of the last three games.  They did not turn the ball over once (in 32 possessions) in the second half vs. Virginia, who is a much better defensive team than North Carolina.

The 62 points Syracuse allowed to Virginia in Sunday's Elite 8 matchup was the most they've given up in any tournament game thus far.  North Carolina has the benefit of having previously taken on the Boeheim zone twice this year, but Virginia had also previously faced them and came up with a lower-scoring effort the second time around.  The Tar Heels, similarly, saw a decrease in offensive production from the first meeting to the second and it only stands to reason that the third will see yet another decrease.  While the final scores seem to all indicate that UNC has had an easy time this tournament, only the game vs. Indiana was really a blowout from wire to wire and it needs to be reiterated that they have yet to face a truly great, or even good, defensive team. Syracuse has gone against three top 25 opponents in defensive efficiency so far (plus Middle Tennessee) while the most efficient defense UNC has seen to this point would be Providence, who was 27th (all others were 74th or lower!).  I look for this to be a tight game.  8* Syracuse

10* Under Syracuse/North Carolina (8:45 ET): I correctly projected both of these teams Elite 8 games to go Over the total. With North Carolina, which was the bigger Over bet against Notre Dame, it seemed fairly safe as the Tar Heels were coming off a 101-point effort against Indiana and facing the worst non-16 seed in the entire Tournament  at defending the three-point line .  It was a high number (closed 153.5) but was on pace to go Over basically throughout. As for Syracuse, well, the Over seemed pretty "dead in the water" after a really slow start vs. Virginia, but somehow the Orange were able to forge a monster second-half rally, not only continuing their own improbable march to Houston, but also resulting in the game going Over with relative ease. Of note is that it was the most total points scored in any Syracuse game this Tournament (130). The total has to be higher here because of who the opponent is, but in my opinion the number is far "too slanted" in the Tar Heels direction. Take the Under.

Any discussion of the total for either of Saturday's games must center around the venue, that being Houston's cavernous NRG Stadium, which simply put has been "death to shooting" in past NCAA Tournaments.  The venue has hosted a Final Four previously and that was in 2011 where none of the games saw more than 132 total points scored, including a Championship Game where the two teams involved (UConn and Butler) combined for just 94 points and a dreadful 10 of 44 shooting from three-point range.  This was also the site of last year's South Regional and again the results were disastrous for the offenses as they averaged only 124.5 PPG while the Under went 3-0 (by a combined 43.5 points). Teams shot less than 40 percent overall from the field and 26.7% from three-point range!  That makes the Under now 5-1 the L6 tourney games played here w/ the only Over cashing by one-half point. 

Neither of these teams are that great at shooting the ball to begin with, particularly North Carolina when it comes to three-point range as the Tar Heels are only 32.1% for the year from behind the arc.  In two games vs. the Syracuse zone, they are a hideous 9 of 41.  Note that they have been at 33 percent or below in three of four tournament games to this point (were 55% vs. Indiana).  Of course, Syracuse was not much better in either regular season matchup vs. UNC, connecting on only 14 of 51 three-point attempts.  While the Virginia game represented one of the lower totals for any Orange game this season, this one resides on the high end of the spectrum, though both regular season matchups vs. UNC were higher (Under was 1-1). Still though, the Under is 11-2 the L13 Syracuse games where the total is between 140 and 149.5, including a strong 7-1 this season.  10* Under Syracuse/North Carolina

10* Over Pacers/Sixers (7:35 ET):  Philadelphia treated me well last night, covering as big underdogs in Charlotte. They still haven't won since March 11th though and as discussed in yday's analysis, if they lose out, then they will match the 1972-73 team for the worst single season record in NBA history.  Therefore, I don't expect them to simply "roll over" here for Indiana in what will be the first of four consecutive home games. As for the Pacers, they are still wondering "what happened?" after losing by 20 at home to Orlando Thursday night. It was their second straight SU loss as a favorite and third in the last four games overall. Something tells me that we'll be seeing plenty of scoring here, so I'm on the Over.

These teams met in late March and the Pacers won 91-75 as 15-point home chalk. The total for that matchup was 210, so there's some value here.  Beginning with that game, Indiana has now stayed Under in five of its last six contests.  Many of those games had higher totals than the one we're getting here, however.  As for Philadelphia, they've now gone Under in six straight games. But all six of those games had higher totals than this one.  They've allowed at least 100 pts in each of the last five games and for the season give up 107.8 PPG at home. If they can at least get to their YTD scoring average (97.4 PPG) here at home, something they failed to do in Indiana, then we should be in good shape here. 

In the home and home vs. Charlotte, Philly didn't shoot well as they were below 35% overall from the field.  Despite Indiana's defensive prowess (3rd in efficiency), I expect the Sixers to shoot better here. In three of its last four games, the Pacers have given up a ton of points in the paint (54 or more) and two of those opponents shot at least 53.3% from the field overall. Those opponents were Orlando and Brooklyn, hardly world-beaters, so there is hope for Philly fans here. As for Indiana's offense, well, it should have little difficulty scoring here.  The Sixers are just 25th in defensive efficiency.  They scored 112 pts in a visit here early in the season. The Over is 12-3 when the Pacers are a road favorite of 9.5 to 12 points while it's also 9-2 this season when the 76ers are a home dog in the same price range.  10* Over Pacers/Sixers

10* Over Sabres/Rangers (7:05 ET):  Buffalo was an Over play for me on Thursday and while they certainly did "their part," scoring four times, Toronto unfortunately didn't comply much (just one goal) and the end result there was a 'push.'  I anticipate far more scoring to take place tonight against the Rangers.  For starters, the Sabres have now scored four goals in back to back games. As discussed in Thursday's analysis, they have scored multiple goals in every game but once since March 1st! During that same time frame, there's also been just one game where there weren't at least five total goals scored between them and the opponent.  The Rangers come in off a series of high-scoring games themselves, so I'm on the Over here.

Over the last three seasons, the Rangers have not lost to the Sabres, going a perfect 8-0 against them.  That includes a 4-2 win in Buffalo last month.  They might have been a bit fortunate to win that one as they chased Robin Lehner early (scored three goals on only 14 shots) and the Sabres finished the game w/ a 36-26 edge in shots.  The first meeting of the season, which took place here in MSG back in January, saw even more scoring as it was a 6-3 final.  That makes it two straight times for the guys in the blue sweatshirts scoring exactly six goals against Buffalo here at home (did the same in January of 2015).

The Over is 4-0-1 in the Rangers last five games and they are entering tonight's contest off B2B losses. They have not lost three straight since December, but simply counting on the usually reliable Henrik Lundqvist doesn't seem like a safe bet at this juncture as he's posted a 3.38 goals against average his last nine starts and been yanked twice.  Lundqvist has allowed a total of seven goals the last two games and each of the Rangers last seven games have seen at least five total goals scored with them scoring three or more in regulation five times.  10* Over Sabres/Rangers

10* Villanova (6:05 ET):  Clearly, "ghosts of Tournaments past" seem to have undervalued Jay Wright's team coming into this year's edition of the Big Dance. Nova's well-publicized failure to make it past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament each of the past five seasons resulted in many (myself included) skeptical of a potential Final Four run this year, especially with Tourney favorite Kansas being the 1-seed in their bracket. But Wright's Wildcats beat the Jayhawks and did so in impressive fashion, leading most of the way and allowing only 59 points in the process. While it has been Villanova's offense grabbing the headlines in this tournament (at least in the first three games), the defense has held the opposition to an average of just 63 PPG and that's while facing three of the top 24 offenses in terms of efficiency in the entire country!  They are my choice to get to Monday's Final.

Oklahoma's shooting this year has been quite remarkable. As a team, they have made almost 43 percent of their three-point attempts this season and shockingly have been slightly better than that in the Tournament despite nearly half of their total shots coming from behind the arc! Of course, they are seemingly overly dependent on one player, that being Buddy Hield, who went for 37 points (8 of 13 from 3-pt range) in the Sooners' 80-68 Elite 8 victory over Oregon that I called correctly. Of course, I was no real fan of the Ducks and also noted the Hield was coming off a sub-par effort (by his standard) and likely to have a big game there.  I do not see him nor the team shooting as well Saturday in Houston's somewhat cavernous NRG Stadium.  Note that despite all their exploits, OU has been somewhat mispriced by the oddsmakers for much of the season (just 14-20 ATS overall), especially of late (just 5-11 ATS since the start of February). Meanwhile, Villanova has been a huge money-maker the past three seasons at 65-37 ATS.  Interestingly, though more tickets have been written on the Sooners here, the line moved from -1 to -2 (even as high as -2.5 in some places) rather quickly.

While the other national semifinal is a matchup of conference foes and thus we'll obviously have regular season matchups to analyze, this too is a regular season rematch as back on December 7th Oklahoma handed Villanova its worst loss of the season, 78-55 at Pearl Harbor (Villanova was a five-point favorite there).  Nova shot a woeful 31.7% from the floor in that game (was only a six-point deficit at halftime) including a disastrous 4 for 32 from three-point range (OU was 14 of 26 from behind the arc). As you might expect, Hield had a solid game, but only scored 18 points and I think this Nova defense can contain him again and the rest of the Sooners for that matter the second go around.  The Wildcats are a remarkable 30-12 ATS their L42 non-conference games, had more "true" road wins and a better point differential during the regular season than did Oklahoma, and are more likely to be better on both ends of the court in this rematch.  Don't discount the impact free-throw shooting might have either; Nova is 95 percent the last two games from the charity stripe.  Kris Jenkins, not Hield, will be the player to watch in this game.  10* Villanova

8* Los Angeles (4:05 ET): This is a battle of first place teams in the Western Conference that both have to worry about being caught in their respective divisions. Over in the Central, Dallas still has a two-point lead over St. Louis (who lost Friday) and is pacing the Conference w/ 103 points. Meanwhile, in the Pacific, LA has just a one-point lead over Anaheim (who also lost last night). So neither team can afford to "give this one away," but I'll be siding with the home team as they are coming off a shutout in their last game (3-0 over Calgary) and have won six of their last seven home games. Plus, I feel that the Kings' "brand" of hockey is more sustainable this time of year than that of the all offense, no defense Stars.

Coming into today, the Kings are #1 in the league in both Corsi and Fenwick, advanced stats that measure how much a team controls the puck compared to its opponent.  Year in and year out, they rate very highly in this metric.  Now, Dallas ranks seventh and sixth respectively in Corsi and Fenwick, but what has me concerned not just here, but about the team's overall viability in the playoffs, is that they are 20th in goals allowed.  Yes, they do lead the league in goals scored. But this is the time of year when it better to be leaning on your goaltender, not your offense. The Stars have even scored short-handed three times over the past 12 games (more than the # of power play goals given up during that same time). Short-handed goals tend to be fluky and thus are not something that can be really counted on.

Speaking of goaltending, the Kings have one of the best in the league between the pipes. Of course, I'm speaking of Jonathan Quick, who is 9-1-1 his last 11 starts at home w/ a 1.89 goals against average. He seems to have Dallas' number, going 17-7-2 w/ a 2.42 GAA all-time against them, including a 27-save victory back in January. The Kings have taken both matchups w/ the Stars this season, including one where Quick didn't even start last month, where they chased Kari Lehtonen after scoring four times on just 11 shots.  The Stars might be on a three-game win streak, but they are just 5-8 SU off three or more consecutive victories this season. The Kings are 20-5 SU coming off a division game this year. 8* Los Angeles

8* Miami (10:05 ET):  This is a spread that my own personal power ratings wouldn't agree with, but what the power ratings don't know is that Sacramento's Boogie Cousins is suspended here and that we have one team (Miami) coming off an embarrassing loss (to the Lakers) while the other (Sacramento) pulled a moderate upset its last time out (were +1.5 in a 120-111 win over Washington here at home).  The Kings have surprisingly covered six of their last seven games (including four straight), but I look for that success to come to an end here as they are w/o their best player, not to mention are a bad team off a win and that typically makes for fade material the next time out.  Lay the points.

Miami ought to be fairly ashamed of itself for dumping a game to the Lakers (in overtime) on Wednesday. They were huge 10-point favorites in that one, but turned the ball over 18 times and missed 11 free throws in the two-point loss.  I'll chalk that up to being "one of those games" as this team has actually played quite well of late as the offense scored at least 100 points in every game but one (at San Antonio) during the month of March.  They've won 11 of 16 overall and should bounce back offensively here (after shooting just 3 of 17 from three-point range against the Lakers) against the most inept defensive team in the league (Kings allow 109 points per game).  Joe Johnson certainly has been a revelation since coming over from Brooklyn (key to the offensive surge) as has Hassan Whiteside, who off the bench has 17 double doubles in the L20 games. This is a good team.

The Kings are not a good team, especially when they are w/o Cousins.  They've lost 10 of 12 when their best player is suspended or injured and as a home underdog in this price range (+6.5 to 9), they've come up empty as well this year, going 0 for 5 against the spread.  Miami is an opponent that has certainly had their number through the years as the Heat have won 29 of the last 36 meetings (28-8 ATS) including eight of ten here in Sacramento.  Coming off a SU win as an underdog, the Kings are just 13-27 ATS L40 (4-7 this year). Meanwhile, the Heat are 9-5 SU/ATS off an outright loss as a favorite. 8* Miami

10* Over Canucks/Ducks (10:05 ET):  We have a huge money line here as Vancouver is off its first win in 10 games while Anaheim is surging towards the playoffs and coming off a monster 8-3 win (over Calgary) on Wednesday. Obviously, I won't be touching the ML here, but the total certainly looks attractive given the amount of scoring we've seen from the Ducks recently. They've averaged over four goals per game their last nine and while it is a virtual certainty that they won't be matching Wednesday's output, they don't have to, and I'm sure Vancouver will be able to contribute at least one goal to the proceedings here.

For the first half of the season, the Ducks were languishing in last when it came to scoring.  So, the fact they are currently 16th in goals per game shows what a mighty turnaround it's been.  Keep in mind that in its last four home games, Anaheim has scored a total of 20 goals as not only did they have the eight Wednesday vs. Calgary, but they also scored seven in a win over New Jersey.  Then there was a win over the Canucks back in February where they scored five times. (That game went Over thanks to two goals from the Vancouver side). Don't discount the fact that Anaheim also sports the league's top power play (23.5 percent) either.

While goaltending has been considered a major strength all season for the Ducks, I'd be a bit concerned that the team has given up at least three goals in four of its last five contests.  We saw Vancouver score four times in its win over San Jose last night, a much needed turn of events after they had been held to two goals or fewer in all nine losses that proceeded that game.  I would say that they are "due" to continue an increase in scoring.  It's not like likely Anaheim starter Frederik Andersen has been that sharp of late (.881 save percentage L4 starts).  The Over is 16-9 when the Canucks take on a team with a winning record this season and is 20-12-8 the Ducks last 40 games overall.  10* Over Canucks/Ducks

8* St. Louis (8:05 ET): Though they now have 101 points (third most in the league) and are on a five-game win streak, I feel that I was "in the right" to question the Blues' "chops" previously as a relatively weak YTD goal differential called into question just how good this team really is. Of course, there is also the matter of all those previous Blues' teams posting outstanding regular seasons, only to flame out in the playoffs. But as touched on at the outset of the analysis here, there's no denying just how good this club has been lately.  Four consecutive shutouts (yes, that's right!) were followed by Tuesday's 3-1 win over Colorado. Save for B2B stunning losses to Calgary & Edmonton, St. Louis didn't lose in March (10-2 overall)! Go with them here.

As for Boston, well, things have been trending in the exact opposite direction. They come into tonight's contest having dropped six of seven and given the dearth of scoring we've seen recently, this matchup w/ the insanely hot Brian Elliott doesn't seem to bode particularly well, does it?  During the 1-6 SU slide, the Bruins have scored only 10 goals and three of them came in the lone win, last Saturday vs. the Maple Leafs.  Tuesday saw them fall on the road to New Jersey despite a massive 40-15 edge in shots on goal.  That, right there, illustrates the offensive struggles going on here. Opposing goaltenders have posted a a .955 save percentage against them the last four games.

Of course, that save percentage is "nothing" compared to what we've seen from the Blues' Elliott of late. He has an absurd .989 save percentage his L4 starts (stopped 91 of 92 shots) and is now up to .935 for the year.  Let's say that Elliott doesn't get the nod here.  Well, then it would be Jake Allen, who also happened to post a shutout in his last start and has a .925 save percentage at home this season.  So, either way, St. Louis should be just fine when it comes to between the pipes this evening.  They are also 18-6 SU the L24 matchups with Boston, including a 2-0 shutout (on the road) back in December. During its win streak, the Blues are outshooting opponents by roughly 8.5 shots per game, which is what you want to see.  8* St. Louis

8* Dallas (7:35 ET):  In the wake of the Chandler Parsons injury, the Mavs seem to have become undervalued in recent weeks and such is the case tonight here in Detroit.  Now, let's be honest here. The Pistons have been red hot at home as they've won 9 of 11 in the Motor City w/ both losses coming at the hands of the same team (Atlanta).  They've moved into seventh in the East (passed Indiana) and are currently two games clear of the ninth place Bulls (who won last night).  But despite all the recent success, this team still outscores its opponents by less than one point per game over the course of the season and actually still sports a negative efficiency rating. They don't shoot the ball particularly well either. I'm taking the points.

Following a 2-10 SU stretch where they actually played better than that record indicates, the Mavs have recorded much needed B2B victories this week.  The first, I was on, and it came at Denver. They followed that up w/ a two-point home win against the Knicks.  What I'm most pleased to see here is that they allowed just 88 and 89 points in those games.  Note that seven of this team's last 10 losses have been by seven points or less. They too are fighting for their playoff lives as Houston's loss last night leaves Dallas in a tie for seventh (w/ Utah), one-half game ahead of the ninth place Rockets.  They need this game every bit as much as the Pistons do and that makes the points look attractive, especially considering the Mavs are 7-3 ATS this year as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points.

I mentioned Detroit's poor shooting numbers earlier. In terms of "true" shooting, which weighs free throw shooting and three-point shooting, the team is 28th in the league, ahead of only Philadelphia and the Lakers.  This is a prime letdown situation for the Pistons, who are coming off an emotional upset of Oklahoma City on Tuesday.  That 88-82 victory (were +2.5) saw them shoot the ball poorly as well. I would look for Dirk Nowitzki (just 9 for 40 L2 games) to have a bounce back performance for Dallas, who has revenge from a six-point home loss suffered last month to Detroit. This spread is too high. 8* Dallas

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET):  Over the last two months, the 76ers have beaten exactly one team (twice), that being Brooklyn. They have 25 losses against those two victories and clearly things remain bad in the City of Brotherly Love. But despite that, this spread looks a little "rich" for Charlotte, who admittedly did just beat the Sixers in the front end of a home and home (by 15) on Tuesday. But with "big" road games looming against the top two teams in the East (Cleveland, Toronto), I would not be the least bit surprised if the Hornets "overlooked" this contest. They've beaten Philly three times already this season, all by 15 pts or more, but I see this being the closest game of the season series. Take the points.

This will mark the most points that Charlotte has had to lay in any game this season. The previous high was 12.5, done twice, against Phoenix and the Lakers.  They split those games at the betting window and are just 20-18 ATS when favored overall. March was the franchise's best record in history, as they went 13-3 straight up, and going back at bit further they are 19-5 SU their last 24 games. I've been touting this team for much of the campaign, but I think we've reached a bit of a "tipping point" here.  I don't see Philadelphia shooting as poorly as they did on Tuesday (31.3 percent) and thus it should be a little bit closer.

Obviously, the Sixers just want this season to be over, but they do have something to play for and that's avoiding the worst single season record in league history.  This has gotten far less attention than the Warriors chase of MJ's Bulls, but if Philadelphia loses out, then they will match the 1972-73 team for the worst record in league history at 9-73 SU.  I'm sure that's on the players' minds.  Note that they were unexpectedly tough in the previous three road games, losing to Denver on a buzzer-beater, staying within three of Portland and even falling by just 12 (were +22!) at Golden State.  Unlike the Hornets, the Sixers are accustomed to this price range and are 8-7 ATS when getting at least 12.5 from the oddsmakers this season.  When getting 15 or more, they are 6-2 against the spread!  8* Philadelphia

10* Boston (10:05 ET):  The Celtics are off a bad loss here, 114-90 to the Clippers where they were outshot 52.4% to 34.8%.  That represented their lowest scoring output in more than a month; in fact, you'd have to go all the way back to a December 15th loss in Cleveland (89-77)to find the last time they were held under 90 pts in a game. It's pretty remarkable that for a two-month stretch (January 12th to March 11th), this team was held under 100 points only twice in 28 games. So, I'm fairly confident that we'll be seeing an uptick in offense here as the C's visit Portland.  Typically, when the oddsmakers are anticipating a high-scoring game (210-pt total or higher), Boston performs well as they 27-12 ATS in that situation the L3 seasons (16-9 ATS this year) including 15-5 ATS when on the road (8-4 ATS this year). Take the points.

In my latest power rankings, I have Boston rated roughly three points better than Portland, meaning this line should basically be a pick 'em and because it's not, the Celtics are a good value in the underdog role.  Now Portland has been a real "overachiever" for much of this season and I continue to "tip my cap" to the job HC Terry Stotts has done here (lost four starters from LY, including All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge). They are 16-3 their L19 home games (averaging 114.4 PPG L10), including a 105-93 win over Sacramento Monday night. But, I get the sense that the Blazers have "plateaued" a bit as they are only .500 (7-7 SU) in March & this is the first time all month that they are coming off consecutive victories. 

Early in the month, these teams met (in Boston) and the Celtics prevailed 116-93 as 6.5-point chalk.  Portland was hotter at the time and given the final score there, again, it shows the line here should be closer to a pick em.  The Blazers' best player, Damian Lillard, is just a 35.2% career shooter vs. Boston and has been held below 20 points in his L3 games overall. Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley actually looked like the better backcourt in that first meeting and I'm hopeful that the Celtics will be getting Jae Crowder (missed L8 games) back tonight as well. Regardless, Portland is just 2-4 SU and ATS as a home favorite of three points or less this year. 10* Boston

5* Minnesota (8:05 ET):  One team here is eliminated from playoff contention (Ottawa) and the other most certainly is not (Minnesota), thus we have a somewhat inflated money line, but regardless the Wild are a strong play here.  They were a 10* for me Tuesday when they downed a much better opponent (Chicago) here at home by a score of 4-1, which was their sixth win in a row, by the way.  Ottawa, who got me last night (beat Winnipeg 2-1), is obviously in the second game of a back to back and the likelihood of them winning on the road two nights in a row seem quite slim to me. Especially considering they were officially eliminated from playoff contention yday (Philly won).

A remarkable thing happened last night and that was the Senators allowed only 21 shots on goal. This team, as I went through in yday's analysis, is dead last in the league in number of shots allowed (32.8 per game) and that number balloons to 34.8 on the road. So, what I'm saying is that Winnipeg ought to feel ashamed of itself for last night's performance.   However, as far as the Sens are concerned, trouble could be lurking between the pipes tonight as after electing to go w/ Andrew Hammond last night, they probably must turn to the struggling Craig Anderson here. Anderson has an .899 save percentage his last four starts and is a big reason why this team is 28th in the league in goals allowed.  The Sens has just 19 shots on goal of their own last night and remember that their special teams are awful as well (28th on the power play, 29th in penalty killing).

Meanwhile, there are no such issues with the Wild's special teams as they have converted at a 24.1 percent clip w/ the man advantage under interim HC John Torchetti and 27 for their last 28 on the PK.  Since Torchetti took over behind the bench, the team has gone 15-6-1 and has now outscored its last three opponents by a margin of 14-3.  They are now five points ahead of Colorado for the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference and with just five games to play a win here would almost guarantee that they're going to be in the playoffs.  I just can't see the Wild losing this game. 5* Minnesota

10* Over Maple Leafs/Sabres (7:05 ET): There's nothing to play for here (except pride) as the two worst teams from the Atlantic collide Thursday night in Buffalo.  Thus, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair as neither side has been particularly stingy all year long. While both offenses here rank in the bottom five in the league, we saw each score "their fair share" in their respective last games.  Toronto, who has now scored five or more times in three of its last five games, is off a 5-2 win over Florida.  Buffalo lost its last time out, 5-4 to Pittsburgh in a shootout, and only once in the team's last 13 games has there been fewer than five total goals scored.  Thus, the value is on the Over here.

You wouldn't expect this "rivalry" to be that one-sided, but it has been, at least when in Buffalo.  At home, the Sabres have won 38 of the last 50 matchups w/ the Maple Leafs, including a 16-1-1 record the last 18.  Goaltender Chad Johnson has been between the pipes for all three meetings with Toronto this season and while two of those were wins, he's been somewhat shaky w/ a .909 save percentage and 2.53 GAA.  His save percentage in division games is only .906 for the season. Against Pittsburgh, the Sabres allowed a somewhat frightening number of shots (46) and while it's true that game included extra time, the fact is they are 8th in the league in most shots allowed per game.  Somewhat surprisingly, the Buffalo offense has scored at least twice in regulation each of its last 13 games.

Toronto used to be known for giving up a ton of shots and poor possession numbers, but they've actually gotten a lot better in those departments this season.  Still though, they've allowed 33 or more shots in three of the last four games and the one they didn't saw them give up three goals on just 18 shots anyway.  However, the key here is an offense which has scored four or more times in regulation in four of the last six games.  The power play has been real "feast or famine" of late, but scored three times in the 5-2 win over Florida Tuesday.  The Over is 14-7 for the Maple Leafs this season if their last game was against a division foe.  10* Over Maple Leafs/Sabres

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET):  Both the Penguins and Predators will be playoff teams, but position is what each is fighting for at this juncture.  Pittsburgh is third in the Metro, but just three points clear of the fourth place Islanders and more importantly just one point behind the Rangers for second. They have been as hot as any team in the league recently w/ wins in nine of their past ten games.  While the last two both came in extra time (OT or a shootout), six of their first seven came in regulation and five were by a margin of two goals or more. As for Nashville, they are in fourth in the Central and trying to catch Chicago for third. But off B2B losses, their recent form has been nowhere near as good and it's tough for me to see them winning tonight on the road.

These teams only meet twice a year and that's just fine from the Predators' perspective as they have not had much luck, dropping six of seven to the Pens.  Goaltending numbers tell the story here as Pittsburgh's Marc-Andre Fleury has a .948 save percentage vs. Nashville during that time and has allowed 1 or 0 goals five times. Meanwhile, the Preds' Pekka Rinne's save percentage is just .870 his last five appearances vs. Pittsburgh, including allowing four goals on only 25 shots in a 4-1 loss earlier this year.  Facing an offense that has scored four or more goals in five of its last seven games isn't likely to change Rinne's fate here.  Incredibly, the Penguins have averaged more than four goals per game during this 9-1 run of theirs, averaging an incredible 37.2 shots per game the last five. Here at home, where they are 24-11-4 for the season, they average 35.8 shots per game. So, as you can see, Rinne is "up against it" here.

Nashville's last result, a 5-2 loss at Dallas Tuesday, is a litte misleading in the sense that the Stars twice scored on an empty net in the game's final two minutes.  But, it was the team's game prior to that, a 4-3 home loss to Colorado, that was more damning as the Preds quickly fell behind 3-0.  What really hurt Tuesday was defenseman Ryan Ellis going down due to a puck hitting him in the head. His absence here would only make things more difficult for a team that has a losing record on the road. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Valparaiso (7:00 ET):  I've cashed George Washington now twice in their last three games and both times they were a slight underdog that (obviously) took the game straight up. First, they won on the road at Monmouth (a #1 seed in this tournament), and did so pretty convincingly, by a score of 87-71.  Then, after I actually faded them (unsuccessfully) against Florida, I was back on the Colonials bandwagon as they won their NIT semifinal matchup with San Diego State handily, 65-46 as three-point pups. But I've also taken Valparaiso in this tournament, back when they thrashed St. Mary's in the quarterfinals, 60-44 as only 3.5-point favorites. In my analysis for that matchup, I said the Crusaders were my choice to win the NIT (thought they'd be playing Florida here) and I'm not deviating from that assertion.

Valpo won its semifinal matchup by only two points, 72-70 over BYU.  But the Horizon League regular season champs have lost only six times all year, unfortunately one of those came in the Conference Tournament (in overtime) to WI-Green Bay.  They twice lost to Wright State during the regular season, once by nine points, but other than that their largest margin of defeat all season came by only six points at Oregon.  This is a really good team.  They had a 14-point halftime lead Tuesday vs. BYU, but the offense struggled in the second half and they needed a game-winner in the final seconds just to advance. That being said, the Crusaders defense ought to be commended for holding BYU, who came in averaging over 84 PPG, to just 70.  Over the course of the season, Valpo has been quite stingy (62.4 PPG allowed) which should serve them well here against a GW side that has scored 80 or more four straight times prior to the last game. 

George Washington, of course, just faced another 'stingy' D in the form of San Diego State. The Aztecs held them to only 60 points, well below the Colonials' normal scoring average, but the problem for SDSU was that they scored only 46 themselves on what was a dreadful shooting night (28.8% overall including 3 for 22 from three-point range!). I don't see those kind of offensive struggles taking place here for Valpo, who can score in its own right (75.6 PPG) and is 10-2 ATS the L3 seasons when taking the court with just one day's rest.  Something to consider here is that Valpo has the better depth and one of GW's only seven rotation players, senior guard Joe McDonald, sprained his ankle Tuesday. That could prove to be the difference right there.  10* Valparaiso

10* Golden State (9:05 ET):  I took the Warriors last night and despite them falling behind early (trailed by nine in the first half), it appeared as if they would pull out the cover when they had a 19-point fourth quarter lead. But they failed to close strong, getting outscored 18-7 over the game's final six minutes.  Still, it was a comfortable win, which is nothing new for a team outscoring its opponents by a historic 11.1 points per game this season.  Here, they draw a Utah team off a historic margin of their own, that being a 45-point victory over the sorry Lakers Monday night.  The size of that win works against the Jazz here as they are a bit overvalued at home against the defending NBA champs.  It was only earlier this month when they failed to cover in Oakland (as 14-pt dogs), losing 115-94.  Lay the short number here.

Using the line from that last meeting as a barometer, a clear case can be made that Golden State is being undervalued here. That also has to do with they are playing w/o rest, a  situation that has really not mattered to them all year as they are 16-2 straight up.  They are also 3-0 vs. the Jazz.  At this point, do I really need to run through the Warriors' exploits? All they need is a 6-2 SU finish to finish with the best single season record in NBA history, so that will keep them motivated and save for the two upcoming games vs. San Antonio, this may be the shortest line they see the rest of the way.  Yes, they come in at just 1-5 ATS their last six games overall, but they were double digit favorites in four of those non-covers and an underdog at San Antonio in the other. 

My natural reaction is to automatically fade any team coming off the kind of win the Jazz are here. In terms of class of opponent, it's really going from the "outhouse" (Lakers) to the "penthouse" (Warriors) and recall that Utah's only loss over its last five games came to Oklahoma City by 22 points.  Their last six games against the top three in the West have all resulted in double digit defeats, in fact the closest they have been in any of those games is 18 points. For a team that sometimes struggles to score (only 97.9 PPG), keeping pace with the Warriors will be a chore. 10* Golden State

8* Nevada (9:00 ET):  This is Game 2 of the CBI Finals, a best 2 of 3 series that saw Morehead State draw "first blood" (at home) on Monday. It was a close game, however, with Nevada covering as 5.5-pt dogs (number was bet up) in an 86-83 final.  Back in Reno, I have no problem laying points with the Wolfpack, who are 14-3 SU at home this season (avg MOV = 10.2 points per game). Plus, last year was just the second time in the history of this event (dates back to 2008) where the Final did not go the full three games. The vast majority of games in the history of this best 2 out of 3 format in the CBI have been won by the home team, so I'll look for that trend to continue here & Nevada force a deciding game on Friday (which would be here in Reno as well).

Nevada actually outshot Morehead State on Monday, connecting on over 50 percent of their field goal attempts, including 7 of 16 from three-point range.  It had to be a little bit demoralizing to hold Morehead State to just 4 of 16 shooting from behind the arc, yet still give up 86 points.  Still though, I can't see the Eagles being that prolific tonight on the road where they average only 70.2 PPG for the season.  They have pulled upsets over both Siena and Ohio in this tournament, but still are only 8-9 straight up in "true" road games.  They have been a very solid bet plus the points on the road (9-2-1 ATS), but this is a pretty short number even for a team that has won 11 of its last 12. Morehead State never led by more than seven in Game 1 and there's a big difference between Nevada on the road (5-10 SU) vs. at home (14-3 SU).

As a home favorite, the Wolfpack are 11-1 SU this season. That lone loss came in the regular season finale (vs. New Mexico) as a one-point choice.  Coming off a SU loss, this team has been an excellent bet to bounce back as they are 7-4 ATS, winning by an average margin of 11.8 points per game!  On just one day's rest, they are also 3-1 SU, 3-0 ATS, winning by an average margin of 21.3 points per game.  Meanwhile, outside of games where they've gotten to enjoy at least three days rest, Morehead State is only 9-9 SU while posting a negative scoring differential. 8* Nevada

10* LA Clippers (8:05 ET):  We're getting Minnesota, off a win, taking only a short number, so it's probably a great time to fade in this situation. Especially with the Clippers having seemingly "found their groove" w/ B2B impressive wins over the Nuggets & Celtics. Both wins came by double digits and Monday saw them really thrash a good Boston team, 114-90 as four-point home favorites.  The T'wolves victory on Monday came at the expense of lowly Phoenix, 121-116, and they failed to cover as six-point home chalk. While a respectable 5-4 SU their last nine games overall, the T'wolves are just 7-17 SU off a SU win this year and have posted consecutive victories only twice since X-Mas.  Lay the short number here.

Those concerned about potentially laying points w/ the Clips should take solace in the team's impressive 6-1 ATS record this season as road chalk of 3.5 to 6 points. Over the last three seasons, they are 19-5 ATS in that same price range (as road team) and going back further we find them at 45-16 ATS L61!  While they just went 1-4 SU on their most recent road trip, that included games vs. both San Antonio and Golden State. A return to Staples Center was just what "the doctor ordered" as they swept the three games, allowing just 94, 90 and 90 points. Now they may not even need to be quite that stingy again here considering the T'wolves are allowing 106 points per game this season, including an an average of 110.2 the L5 games. Opponents are shooting 47% against them overall.

Believe it or not, but Minnesota did beat the Clippers (in LA!), 108-102 (as 10.5-pt dogs) back in early February. That win snapped a 14-game losing streak to the Clips overall as they shot better than 50 percent from the floor. But while Minny is a surprising 11th in offensive efficiency, they are 27th on the defensive end and that's a bad matchup with a Clippers team that is 6th in offensive efficiency & 7th in defensive efficiency. All three games this year have been relatively close, but I anticipate a different story here as for whatever reason the T'wolves have been really lousy at home this year, going not just 13-24 straight up (to be expected), but also 13-23-1 ATS. 10* LA Clippers

10* Winnipeg (7:35 ET):  Over the last couple weeks, any time I find a matchup between two non-playoff teams that I like, my default is to go with the home side. I'm not deviating from that game plan here as two of the league's seven Canadian franchises that won't be competing for the Stanley Cup face off Wednesday in Manitoba.  The Jets have lost two in a row, both by identical 3-2 margins, to Philadelphia and Buffalo. Both games were on the road. However, Ottawa has done them "one better" (or is it "one worse") as the Sens have lost three straight to an admittedly tough slate of opponents (Caps, Isles, Ducks). I just can't see the road team "getting off the mat" in this one, so look for Winnipeg to get the two points.

Anytime I play against the Senators I must reference how they lead the league in shots allowed.  That number is now 32.9 per game and on the road it's predictably worse (34.6), so it shouldn't come as any shock to see them also allowing 3.5 goals/game away from home, nor sport a 14-20-3 record in such affairs.  This issue of too many shots allowed reared its ugly head once again on Saturday when they gave up 39 (game did go to OT) in a 4-3 loss to Anaheim.  While the team's last two wins may have come in shutout fashion, the fact is they are 28th in the league in goals allowed (direct correlation to # of shots allowed).  Special teams have done this club no favors either as they rank 28th on the power play and 29th in penalty killing.

Winnipeg should probably be happy that they earned a point on Monday as they trailed the Flyers 2-0 before coming back to force overtime.  Ottawa has had their number in recent years, including a 3-2 win back in November, but I feel that carries little relevancy now w/ both teams essentially "done for the year."  With a pretty brutal slate of games looming (Blackhawks, Wild, Ducks, Sharks, Kings), this is really the Jets' best shot at a win between now and April 9th.  They have won their last two home games - by a combined 6-1 margin over the Canucks & Kings - and goaltender Ondrej Pavalec has looked sharp of late w/ a .938 save percentage his L4 starts.  10* Winnipeg

8* Golden State (10:35 ET):  The Warriors have seen their ATS record go down in recent weeks, but they appear to be undervalued in this spot as the Wizards come calling. Yes, Golden State has failed to cover in four of their last five, but in three of those they were DD faves (as they are here) and another was at San Antonio.  What I don't like about this matchup for Washington is that they are likely to make the mistake of attempting to play at the Warriors' pace (both teams are in the top six in terms of pace of play).  They don't have near the defensive capabilities (104.4 PPG allowed) to keep the NBA champs in check, so don't be surprised when this one turns into a blowout. Lay the points.

Golden State averages 115.5 points per game. At home, their average margin of victory is 15.3 PPG.  When these teams met in D.C. nearly two months ago (Feb 3), the Warriors won by 13, 134-121 as 9.5-point chalk. Using that number as a baseline, they are underpriced for this rematch.  Obviously, GSW will continue to be motivated by their chase of Chicago's all-time single season record (72 wins).  A win tonight matches last year's total of 67, which means that they and the Bulls would be the only teams to win 67+ games in consecutive seasons. We don't have to worry about GSW winning here (35-0 SU at home this year) as they have 47 straight wins as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more and they should carve the Wizards defense up.

Washington's move to a faster pace hasn't really worked out this year even though they are now one game above .500.  But they're still only 9th in the East and this is a matchup with one of the five teams that plays faster than them.  I think that a lot of people fail to recognize that the Warriors rank fifth in defensive efficiency. As a road underdog of 12.5 points or more, the Wiz are just 4-60 straight up including a non-cover their only time in this role this season, which was a 19-pt loss at San Antonio back on December 16th.  Washington has been playing a lot of bad teams recently, including a win over the Lakers two nights ago, and clearly this is a big step up.  8* Golden State

5* Puck Line Vancouver (10:05 ET):  Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Canucks +1.5.  Eliminated from playoff contention, Vancouver is in the midst of a massive downward spiral with eight consecutive defeats (shut out four times!).  But two of the last three losses have been by exactly one goal, including the last one, 3-2 here at home to Chicago.  Tonight, they welcome in a San Jose team that has the unusual dichotomy of being great on the road (25-10-3, 2nd best record in the league), but subpar at home (17-18-3).  After dropping three in a row on home ice, the Sharks finally won one at "The Tank," and it was big one last night 5-2 over the first place Kings.  But I don't see them winning by multiple goals here, if they win at all.

Home ice has been no advantage in this Pacific Division rivalry of late. In fact, the road team has won each of the last seven matchups, which plays into San Jose's dichotomy.  The Sharks are also 6-0 their last six trips to Vancouver.  That all being said, their last win here was by exactly a one goal margin and then two days later (both games played earlier this month), San Jose lost (at home) 4-2 as a huge money line favorite.  I wonder what the Sharks will have "left in the tank" after last night's ferocious rally where they scored three times in the third period.  That win guaranteed them a playoff spot, so this is a pretty clear letdown spot to me. 

It may appear as if Vancouver has nothing to play for here, but no team wants to keep losing. They've been outscored 24-7 during the current losing skid and it's been every bit as ugly as the numbers look.  One key here though is that Ryan Miller will be the one between the pipes and he has a .932 save percentage his last four starts.   5* Puck Line Vancouver (+1.5)

10* George Washington (9:00 ET):  The Colonials surprised me in their quarterfinal matchup vs. Florida (playing its third straight road game), winning 82-77 as a 1.5-point fave. Of course, they didn't surprise me when I took them against Monmouth and they delivered an 87-71 outright victory. Their semifinal opponent here is San Diego State, who has gotten to play all three of its NIT games to this point at home and won them all by double digits.  I concede that the fact that the Aztecs have dropped only three games since the New Year, all by five points or less, but remember that the Mountain West was historically weak this season. I have these teams rated pretty much dead even, so taking the points is the way to go.

Before this tournament got underway, San Diego State was just 7-6 SU vs. non-conference foes, clearly an inferior record when compared to GW's 11-2 mark.  In comparison to GW, SDSU's path to MSG has been easier.  That coupled with the easier conference slate has me believing that the oddsmakers have mispriced the teams in this one.  The Aztecs have been favored in every game since the start of February, which is perhaps why the oddsmakers have them laying points again here. But note they are only 13-11 ATS as chalk this year, making them basically a coinflip proposition.  Their offensive production has been way above normal here in the NIT and that's one trend that I do not expect to continue. 

GW, meanwhile, is a team known for its scoring. They average 75.9 PPG and have been at 82 points or higher in all three NIT games so far.  In fact, only once in their last six games have the Colonials not scored at least 80 pts.  That's a lot when you consider SDSU only averages 66 PPG.  Yes, the Aztecs have the edge defensively (2nd in efficiency).  But we just watched GW score 82 points against a Florida team that ranked inside the top 25 in efficiency.  Don't be surprised if free throw shooting helps decide this one as GW is an impressive 75.1% from the charity stripe while San Diego State is at just 68%.  In the end, I expect the dog to take this one outright. 10* George Washington

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET):  This is a big matchup in the Central Division.  Chicago, despite B2B wins, finds itself four points back of both Dallas and St. Louis for the top two spots, which guarantee you home ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs.  Minnesota currently occupies the second Wild Card spot (5th in the Central), but is just three points clear of Colorado, who they just beat over the weekend. So the loser here will definitely be sweating a little more after this one and I think that will be the Blackhawks, who are playing their third road game in four days and are a surprising 0-4 this season vs. the Wild. Also, the defending Stanley Cup Champs have been in poorer form of late, losing six of nine, while Minnesota has won five straight.

It was a huge win Saturday for Minnesota as they went to Colorado and shut out the Avs, 4-0.  They are now 14-6-1 since the coaching change.  Looking at the Wild's YTD goal differential (+17), it is quite comparable to all of the other likely Western Conference playoff entrants.  So I wouldn't be surprised at all if they hold off the Avs and get into the postseason.  One team that definitely doesn't want to see the Wild come playoff time is Chicago, who hasn't beaten them in six straight tries in the regular season (did sweep a playoff series LY).  Three of the games this year have been decided by one goal, but one here in Minnesota was a 6-1 final. Goalie Devan Dubnyk has really had the 'Hawks number w/ a 1.96 goals against average in the four games this season.

Give a big special teams edge here to the Wild as their penalty kill is 24 for its last 25 while Chicago's power play is 0 for its last 23.  Chicago has also been outshot over the course of the season, which isn't a great sign. Meanwhile, Minnesota has been dominating during this five-game win streak, outscoring foes by 2.2 goals per game.  The edge in goal here also goes to Minnesota as Chicago is still w/o Corey Crawford.  Scott Darling is an adequate replacement, but catch match Dubnyk. Incredibly, the Blackhawks haven't beaten a likely Western Conference playoff opponent since all the way back on Feb 6!  10* Minnesota

10* Brooklyn (7:05 ET):  The Nets didn't fare too well last night, losing 110-99 in Miami. Though I had the Under (won!), I wasn't the least bit surprised at the margin of victory there either.  I think it's important to recall, however, that Brooklyn had won its previous two games (Cleveland, Indiana) outright.  As I pointed out in yday's analysis, those games did come at home, but tonight's road game is a drop in class from last night as they take on a Magic squad that had lost six in a row before pulling an upset their last time out, 111-89 over Chicago as 6.5-pt dogs. They're due for a letdown off that result as I still would not trust them in this price range seeing as they've lost outright two of the last three times they've been a favorite.

Teams playing in the second night of a back to back are often undervalued, especially if playing on the road.  It's highly unlikely that Orlando will shoot 57.1% here like Miami did last night vs. the Nets, so right there we're getting a bit of a reprieve.  Also, Brooklyn had to withstand a career-high 27 points from the Heat's Hassan Whiteside last night and they turned the ball over 20 times (leading to 23 Miami points). Again, I do not foresee Brooklyn being so bad again here nor their opponent playing so well.   Lost in the loss last night was that the Nets shot 53.2 percent.  Offensively, this team has done quite well of late. Only once in March have they been held below 99 points. That makes them attractive at this price range.

Orlando has been playing without its two leading scorers for the past several games.  It does appear as if Victor Oladipo is going to be back here, but Nikola Vucevic's status remains up in the air (doubtful).  Again, this team is just 4-12 SU in March.  They are just 7-13 SU after scoring 105 or more points this season.  They won't match their near 54% shooting from the last game and while they are 3-0 vs. the Nets so far this season, two of those wins were by seven points or less.  This team has not won B2B games since before the All-Star Break. Even if they manage to do so here, there's now a margin they have to deal with and that's simply too big of an ask for a team still 13 games below .500. 10* Brooklyn

8* Columbia (7:00 ET):  It's come down to this for the CIT Championship, the first of FIVE tournaments to be decided this week. UC Irvine has been the road team in every game during this event, the first two (at North Dakota, LA Lafayette) being close victories and then the Anteaters caught a massive break on Sunday when Coastal Carolina's point guard was arrested the night before the semifinal matchup. Meanwhile, Columbia has enjoyed the benefit of playing all of its CIT games at home (team actually PAY to host in this event!). The Lions have won two of its three games in blowout fashion, including Sunday's semifinal vs. NJIT, 80-65 as nine-point chalk. I'm stunned to see how low the number is for the final and will gladly lay it.

Getting this game at home is a pretty big deal for the Ivy League contingent. Columbia is 17-4 SU at home this season w/ an average margin of victory of 11.2 points per game. They had little problem w/ New Jersey Tech on Sunday, jumping out to double digit lead at halftime and never really looking back.  It was the second CIT game where they broke the 80-point barrier, not to mention the sixth time they've done it in the L10 games.  This is one of the best Columbia teams in history as they've already established program highs for most overall wins in a season (24) and non-conference wins (14).  The Lions have now won 100 games in the six seasons under HC Kyle Smith.

As alluded to above, UC Irvine was a tremendous beneficiary of Coastal Carolina losing their starting point guard 24 hours before tip off.  As a result, the Chanticleers shot only 27.4% from the field. That was after the Anteaters' previous opponent (LA Lafayette) shot just 32.9%.  I find it hard to believe that Columbia will be so inept offensively in this one. This is also UC Irvine's fourth consecutive road game.  They had to do that once during the regular season, at Oregon of all places, and ended up losing that game by double digits.  This marks the first time all season that UC Irvine has won three consecutive road games. Again, their first two wins in this event came by a combined four points.  8* Columbia

8* Arizona (10:05 ET):  Somebody break up the 'Yotes! A team w/ little to play for at this point (except pride) has suddenly won three in a row. Technically, they are still alive in the hunt for the Wild Card, but being 10 points back of surging Minnesota (w/ just seven games to play) makes it highly unlikely that this team will be in the playoffs. However, that doesn't mean they still can't finish strong and here they get a visit from a team worse off in the standings, that being Calgary, losers of three straight and just one of the league's seven Canadian franchises that won't be in the playoffs either. Recently, I've just gone with the home team when it's two non-playoff teams facing off and I'll keep w/ that philosophy here.

The entirety of Arizona's win streak has come here at home and it started w/ a 4-2 win over lowly Edmonton last Tuesday (I won on Over 5.0). From there, they've pulled minor upsets of both Dallas and Philadelphia.  Overall, the club has won six of its last eight games and the driving force behind that has been the return of Mike Smith between the pipes. Smith has allowed just six goals total in five games since he's been back, never allowing more than two in any game. His save percentage is above .950 during this time and on Saturday he was less than a minute away from shutting out the Flyers, stopping 34 of 35 shots overall.  The good news here is that Calgary has lost 21 straight times when scoring two goals or fewer.

The Flames, as most expected, have regressed badly from last year when they actually made the playoffs.  The driving force behind this is they've given up the most goals in the league. They also have dreadful special teams w/ the power play ranking 27th and the penalty kill 30th (ie last).  The club has dropped three straight coming into tonight (outscored 15-5) and is a woeful 11-23-3 on the road this season. In stark contrast to last season when they swept the regular season series from the Coyotes, this year has seen Arizona win all four meetings with the Flames totaling just four goals. The home team is severely underpriced in this one. 8* Arizona

8* Dallas (9:05 ET): Oh my. What has gone wrong w/ the Mavericks? Losers of 10 of their last 12, they are now a season-worst three games below .500 after getting thrashed in Sacramento Sunday afternoon (gave up 133 points!).  It would be quite easy to simply pin things on the loss of Chandler Parsons for the year, but consider that w/o him, Dirk Nowitzki (rest), Deron Williams and Devin Harris, the team still hung tough and covered against Golden State on Friday night.  Nowitzki and Harris were both back in the lineup yday, but combined for only 25 points.  But forget about that, it was a season-worst effort on the defensive end that killed the Mavs Sunday as they allowed the Kings to shoot an unfathomable 62.5 percent from the field.  I expect pride to kick in tonight in a game they "must have" in Denver.

As for the Nuggets, they too lost yday, 105-90 at the Clippers.  The team was off B2B wins, but considering who they had played (Sixers and Lakers), that really shouldn't come as a surprise. What is a little surprising is that this team has been able to string together a 31-43 overall SU record this year. Given the state of the roster, I would have thought 30 wins would be a bit of a stretch at the start of the season.  Generally, they've been a competitive bunch, but are only 2-5 ATS their last seven games and I do not believe they should be the favorite here. As a favorite, they are just 7-8 ATS for the year. Consider that in a previous visit from Dallas earlier this month, the Nuggets were four-point underdogs. Granted, they did win that game (by two, in overtime) but there's been an overreaction by the marketplace here.

The Dallas defense has to start improving if the team is to make the playoffs.  Entering today, they are just one-half game behind idle Houston for eighth place in the West, so you can see the importance winning this one carries. Fortunately for the defense, Denver comes in off a dreadful offensive showing vs. the Clippers as the starting five combined to shoot a woeful 22.4 percent from the field.  That starting five did not include Kenneth Faried, who has missed the last six games. Remember that the Nuggets are also w/o Danilo Gallinari. Nowitzki, who had been hot prior to last night, should rekindle some of the "old fire" and lead his team to victory in this one. 8* Dallas

10* Under Nets/Heat (7:35 ET):  Brooklyn is in off B2B upsets, first over Cleveland, then Indiana, but those games were at home and this one is on the road.  The road has been unkind to the Nets all season long as they are just 7-27 SU, averaging 98.4 PPG. But I have little interest in laying the double digit number in this one. Instead, I'll focus on the total as both teams have been exceeding their season-long average in scoring recently.  Brooklyn is now averaging 105 PPG its last five games after the 120-110 win over Indiana on Saturday and has gone over 100 pts in seven straight games, a real shocker. As for Miami, well, I've been through this before as their games have become way more high scoring on both ends than we've been used to seeing.  That changes here. Take the Under.

After watching them go Over in eight straight contests, I went w/ the Heat Under their last time out and they complied in a 108-97 win over Orlando.  Still though, that's significantly more points than what they generally score. The trend began at the start of the month and only once in March (at San Antonio) have they been held under 100 pts. Credit the acquisition of Joe Johnson for that. But also take note that they still only average 99.5 PPG for the year. Defense would be my concern if I were at Heat fan, however, as they are allowing 103.6 PPG their last five, about a 5.5 PPG increase from their season average. Remember that for much of the year, this was the top Under team in the league. They are one of just two teams (Utah is the other) that neither scores nor allows 100 PPG. The amount of scoring we've seen in recent Heat games is due to tail off and helping us here is that we're now starting to see some really high totals (like this one tonight). 

  The Over is a perfect 3-0 this season when the Nets & Heat meet, but consider that none of those three totals closed higher than 195 points, which is a far lower threshold than what we have here.  In only one of the three games were more than 202 total points scored.  I don't see Brooklyn matching its hot shooting from the last game (54.5%!), nor coming anywhere close to its point total from that one either, which was the third most they'd scored in regulation in any game this season.  Simply put, we're due to start seeing some major offensive regression from both sides here.  10* Under Nets/Heat

6* Detroit (7:35 ET):  Talk about one the Red Wings simply "must have."  They enter the day tied w/ Philadelphia for the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference and draw lowly Buffalo, at home, here.  Twice in the last three games, the Wings have been outright humiliated, losing by margins of 6-2 and 7-2 to Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh respectively. But those are two of the hottest teams in the East right now and the Sabres sit at the opposite end, eliminated from playoff contention w/ only 72 points, even though they are off surprising B2B wins here. Look for this win streak to come to an end however, as they are not only 5-27 their last 32 games overall vs. Detroit, but just 2-14 here in the Motor City. 

Buffalo has had just one three-game win streak all season and it came back in early November. So the odds clearly are not in their favor in this one as they've dropped five straight when off B2B wins. Overall, they're just 1-7 SU when on a win streak this season and in six of those spots they've been held to one goal or fewer.  Though they should be given credit for the pair of 3-2 victories last week vs. Carolina and Winnipeg, both were somewhat improbable third period rallies. Rookie sensation Jack Eichel is not nearly as prolific on the road w/ only eight of his 23 goals coming there, including only one in the L11 games. Furthermore, the team has averaged just 25 shots per game its last three contests.

Detroit needs a strong outing here from Petr Mrazek, who got chased Saturday by Pittsburgh and now has a 4.34 goals against average and .883 save percentage his last four starts. But the Wings netminder has had Buffalo's number through the years (2.55 GAA), including a 19-save shutout back on January 22nd.  He's started all four games vs. the Sabres this season and won three of them.  Note that the Red Wings did bounce back from an embarrassing 6-2 loss to Tampa Bay w/ a win on home ice against Montreal on Thursday, so a precedent has been set.  The Wings have a strong record at home in games decided in regulation and I don't see them having much trouble here.  6* Detroit

9* Over Maple Leafs/Lightning (7:35 ET):  Tampa Bay enters the day two points back of idle Florida for first place in the Atlantic. It certainly does appear as if they have an excellent shot at pulling even w/ the Panthers as two points here seem extremely likely as Toronto comes calling.  But with the money line being so high, I can't touch it, plus I feel as if the Over is a much stronger play here anyway.  Not only had the Lightning tallied a total of 13 goals over a two-game stretch prior to losing to Florida on Saturday, but the Maple Leafs had scored 15 times over a three-game span before their own loss Saturday, 3-1 at home to Boston. I see both sides rekindling their offensive attacks in this one.  Take the Over.

Tampa Bay had been a bit of disappointment offensively for much of this season (still rank 10th in goals per game) as last year saw them finish tops in the league in that department. They certainly had no problems scoring in recent wins over Detroit and the Islanders and they've now gone four straight games w/ at least 34 shots on goals. Even in the 5-2 loss to Florida on Saturday, they finished w/ a 35-27 edge in shots. But, all of a sudden, goaltending has become a bit of a concern w/ nine goals given up in the last two games.  Yes, Ben Bishop was not the one between the pipes vs. the Panthers (second game of a back to back), but he did give up four goals to the Isles in his last start.  With eight or more goals scored in each of the Lightning's last three games, certainly all the elements are present for another high-scoring affair tonight.

Somehow, Tampa Bay has been held to just four total goals in their last three meetings with the Leafs.  They've still won two of those, but still you'd expect some higher scoring efforts against a team that ranks 23rd in goals allowed per game.  Jonathan Bernier has been pretty strong in goal for the Leafs lately, but I'm not sure how long that lasts. A big key for Toronto here is that the Lightning lost their best defenseman (Anton Stralman), so that should (theoretically) aid in their ability to score here. However, TB also could get back as many as three notable offensive contributors for tonight's game, one being Nikita Kucherov, whose 62 points are tied for the team lead. 9* Over Maple Leafs/Lightning

8* Tennessee Tech (3:00 ET): As if there weren't enough teams getting postseason invites, we now have the Vegas 16 taking place this week over a three-day span at Mandalay Bay. Actually, it appears as if there "weren't enough teams" as despite being called "The Vegas 16," there's only eight schools competing here.  The first two are Tennessee Tech (out of the OVC) and Old Dominion (out of C-USA).  Of the two, ODU was closer to the actual NCAA Tournament as they fell to Middle Tennessee (and we know what the Blue Raiders did to Michigan State) by only two points in the C-USA Champ Game. Tennessee Tech, meanwhile, fell victim to the stunning run of 8-seed Austin Peay in their conference tournament. My take is that the number here is simply way too many points to be laying in this spot. Take the points.

This matchup will certainly be an interesting contrast of styles. Tennessee Tech is a team led by it offense as they average an impressive 78.6 points per game, which had them just outside the top 40 nationally.  But the regular season didn't end well as the Golden Eagles dropped three of five and got a bad draw in the OVC Tourney as they got the fifth seed despite finishing in a three-way tie for the second best record in the conference. (OVC is split into two divisions & division winners are guaranteed top two spots).  I have no unearthly idea how to explain what happened against Austin Peay, who scored 92 pts on 54.2% shooting led by a 37-21 game (both career highs) from Chris Horton.  One thing that's good, however, is that the Golden Eagles are 6-2 ATS this year following a SU loss.

Old Dominion is led by its defense, which gives up just 61.8 PPG.  Compared to Tennessee Tech, the Monarchs finished the year in much stronger fashion as they'd won seven in a row before the two-point loss to MTSU (game decided on free throws in closing seconds). But that works against ODU here as the win streak has only served to inflate this line to heights it should not be at.  I do not see them being able to keep pace w/ the scoring of Tennessee Tech here as the Golden Eagles should bounce back from their worst three-point shooting game of the year (vs. Austin Peay) where they went just 5 for 29.  8* Tennessee Tech

10* Coastal Carolina (9:00 ET):  The Chanticleers got a bad break with their starting point guard Shivaughn Wiggins getting arrested last night and he will not play here.  But I'm still not sure that UC Irvine deserves to be favored. The Anteaters have posted a pair of close road wins in the CIT so far, one coming in overtime. That was 89-86 over North Dakota and then came a one-point win at LA Lafayette Wednesday.  They've played one less game than Coastal Carolina in this tournament and while having the home court edge is not necessarily indicative that you're the better team (teams PAY to host in this tourney!), it is an advantage nonetheless.  Take the points with the home dog.

Coastal Carolina has played all three of their CIT games at home. They beat Mercer (65-57), New Hampshire (71-62) and then Grand Canyon (60-58).  As you can tell, these wins have been close as well and the Chanticleers needed a pretty miraculous rally to win the quarterfinal matchup with Grand Canyon (closed game on an 8-0 run).  But they were favored in all three games and are 14-3 SU here at home this season w/ an average margin of victory of 15.2 points per game.  Yes, missing their starting PG is a terrible blow, but it is one that they can still overcome.  There has been an overreaction by both the linesmakers and public for this one.

UC Irvine had to deal with the absence of 7'6" Mamadou Ndiaye in the last game and while he's been upgraded to probable here, his leg figures to still give him issues.  Though a remarkable 16-7 SU away from home this season, the Anteaters average margin of victory in those games is just 1.5 points per game.  It's pretty remarkable that they have won all nine games this year in which they have been a road favorite, but they are 0-2 ATS as a road fave of 3.5 to 6 points.   Since Thanksgiving, CCU has lost only two times by more than six points and both of those games took place on the road. 10* Coastal Carolina

10* Over Notre Dame/North Carolina (8:49 ET):  How in the world has Notre Dame made it this far?  They have trailed late in all three of their Tournament games, coming back from double digits to beat Michigan, needing a last second tip in to overcome Stephen F Austin and then closing on an 8-0 run to beat Wisconsin in the final 26 seconds (had not led previously!).  Consider that the Fighting Irish came into the Tourney having dropped three of five w/ all three losses coming by at least 18 points.  One of the two wins during that time saw them erase an 18-point deficit against Duke, a game that went to overtime. The step up in class here is big as they take on top-seeded North Carolina, who thrashed them in the ACC Tournament by a score of 78-47.  It will almost certainly be closer this time around, but rather than taking the points, I feel the Over is the much sharper play here.

Notre Dame is all offense and no defense.  Seriously. They rank 9th in the country in offensive efficiency, but are a ghastly 154th defensively.  Only six teams in this tournament are worse at defending the three-point line and collectively those six teams can be labeled as "the 16 seeds."  Playing a team that is 51st in tempo nationally, averaging 82.9 points per game on 47.9% shooting isn't likely to do wonders for those defensive numbers. At the same time, one reason that I feel the Fighting Irish are far more likely to competitive here than they were earlier this month is that they will almost certainly shoot better than the 30 percent we saw from them the last time. Even in their 80-76 win over the Tar Heels in South Bend earlier this year, the Irish were at just 34.8% from the field.  In the two games combined, they have gone 8 for 35 from three-point range.  That's going to improve here.

Going from the "snail's pace" of Wisconsin to North Carolina is a big change for Notre Dame and one that clearly will result in more scoring all-around.  UNC comes off a monster game, one where they scored 101 points in a wire to wire thrashing of Indiana.  They have scored at least 83 points in all three Tourney games and note that first round opponent Florida Gulf Coast ranks very similar to ND in terms of defensive efficiency. Both previous matchups this season did go Under, but the total here is lower, placing the value on the Over. 10* Over Notre Dame/North Carolina

8* Over Syracuse/Virginia (6:05 ET):  This is a (very) low total, so I'm not really surprised to see the Over having attracted so much early "love" (number immediately moved a few points). While many times, such a line move can lead to some value in going "the other way," in this instance I'm inclined to agree with the majority. These ACC rivals went Over against each other in the regular season, in what ended up being a 73-65 Virginia win in Charlottesville, and the number here is lower.  While the Cavaliers may not be able to match their hot shooting from that game, as I argued in my winning Over play for their game vs. Iowa State, the efficiency of their offense is greatly underrated (8th in the country).  Take the Over.

UVA comes into the Elite 8 having averaged over 80 PPG in the Tournament. That's really impressive and something not being talked about enough.  They have now shot at least 51% from the floor in six of their last seven games and are above 55% in the Tournament!  Normally, I might be inclined to call for some regression to the mean, but note the Cavs are shooting 49.3% overall for the year, including 40.3% from three-point range.  They had little difficulty in carving up Iowa State Friday as they assisted on a phenomenal 81% of their made field goals and scored 52 points in the paint.  Even by their standards, this is a low total. The lowest total all season in a UVA game was 122 points and they are 10-3 Over their L13 neutral court games when the O/U line is between 120 and 129.5 points.

Syracuse has held its three Tournament opponents thus far to an average of just 53.7 PPG and hasn't given up more than 60 in any game.  But let's also remember that they've played nothing but double digit seeds (10, 15 and 11) to this point.  This is a big step up in class for the Orange, whose 2-3 zone was carved up by Virginia in the regular season meeting to the tune of 56.8% shooting, the highest percentage allowed by a Jim Boeheim defense in four seasons. At the same time, I would expect Syracuse's own offensive number to improve here as they shot only 38.9% from the field in the regular season matchup. This could be the lowest total for any Orange game all season and the regular season saw the Over go 5-0 if the number was below 130 pts. 8* Over Syracuse/Virginia

10* Dallas (6:05 ET):  Though it's ever so slightly, I'm surprised that the Kings are favored here as my own personal power ratings suggest that this line should be a pick em.  That difference may seem somewhat negligible, but considering the desperate state Dallas should be in here, they are a strong value not having to lay points.  With Utah winning last night (I was on the Jazz!), the Mavs now find themselves on the "outside looking in" when it comes to the playoffs as they are one-half game back of the two teams tied for seventh.  This is due to them dropping nine of their last 11, but as I've outlined in taking them plus the points several times recently, most of those losses have been close, including the one at Golden State Friday where I cashed them as large underdogs. Here, we're looking at an outright win.

Sacramento is off a rare win here.  The win came Friday, at home, vs. Phoenix.  That was a game they were favored to win by 7.5 and prevailed easily 116-94.  But not all opponents are as bad as the Suns.  Wins have been few and far between for the Kings ever since the All-Star Break and they have not won B2B games since that time.  Last time they were at home, favored and off a win, they lost outright to New Orleans 123-108 on March 16th.  Defensively, this team has major issues as they are dead last in the league in points allowed, allowing 109 per game.  Not since a five-game win streak in mid-January has Sacramento gone B2B games allowing less than 100 points. So after the win over Phoenix two nights ago, I expect their poor defense to revert back to their "usual ways" here. 

Dallas will be w/o PG Deron WIlliams here, but he didn't play Friday vs. Golden State and they still hung tough.  They also didn't have Devin Harris, Dirk Nowitzki and Chandler Parsons against the team with the league's best record and still lost by only eight.  While Parsons is out for the year, both Harris and Nowitzki will be back tonight.  Nowitzki has played well recently (he simply rested vs. GSW) and so too has Wesley Matthews, who is 17 of 28 from three-point range the L3 games.  Sacramento might be 8-1 ATS L9 vs. Dallas (3-0 this year), but that trend changes here is a "must-win" spot for the Mavs.  10* Dallas

9* Carolina (5:05 ET):  Both of these teams are technically still alive in the playoff hunt. But, it would be surprising if either made it. The Devils and 'Canes are five and six points back, respectively, of the final Wild Card and of course there's very few games left to play. So the loser here is all but dead.  Recently, I've been siding with the team that has home ice advantage in matchups such as this one and I won't deviate from that game plan here as I think the matchup itself is quite good for Carolina, a team that ranks 2nd in Corsi and 7th in Fenwick, meaning they typically do a great job at possessing the puck. New Jersey by comparison is just 29th in both Corsi & Fenwick and averages a league-low 24.5 shots per game while also being 30th (i.e.) last in goals per game.

Carolina snapped a five-game losing skid w/ a 3-2 win in Columbus Thursday night. Unfortunately, they followed that up by dropping an overtime game to the Islanders last night, 4-3.  This club has had just the worst luck in one-goal games recently (five of last six losses have been by that exact margin) and the game winner last night was scored w/ just 13.8 seconds left in OT.  The 'Canes, who are now an unfathomably bad 1-15 straight up in games that go past regulation (most OT/shootout losses in the league), clearly deserve a better fate this season.  Five of their last seven losses have come in OT or a shootout.   Overall, they are 17-24 SU in one-goal games this season. Frustrating is that they outshot the Islanders last night, 36-31, but still came up short on the scoreboard. 

New Jersey never seems to outshoot anybody. I've been through this "bugaboo" of theirs before and they too are off an overtime loss, 1-0 to the Capitals on Friday. They finished w/ only 22 shots on goals in the shutout loss, making it 10 of 12 games this month where they've been outshot.  Remember that there's still no Cory Schneider (knee injury) between the pipes for the Devils, who instead have to turn to Keith Kincaid (.857 save percentage L4 starts!) in this spot. Friday marked the eighth time the team has been shut out this season.  9* Carolina

10* Under Villanova/Kansas (8:45 ET):   Villanova's last game was an interesting one if you like offense. They absolutely dominated Miami (won 92-69 as four-point chalk) despite allowing the 'Canes to shoot 53.2% for the game (and that number was closer to 60% in the first half!). Of course, Nova's own offense was quite prolific as they shot an insane 62.7% from the field and in three tournament games they're now averaging 88 points per game on almost 60% shooting overall. After staying Under in both the Big East Championship Game (loss to Seton Hall) and their 1st round NCAA game vs. UNC Asheville, the Wildcats last two games have both soared past the total and the Over is now 10-2 their last 12 games overall. But I look for a different story to unfold here vs. Kansas.  Take the Under.

The top-seeded Jayhawks are no slouch offensively either, but their last two games have both stayed Under thanks to impressive defensive performances vs. UConn and Maryland, formidable foes.  Note that Kansas' defensive prowess is by no means limited to the Tournament as you would have to go all the way back to January to find the last time they allowed an opponent to shoot better than 50% from the floor. Incredibly, only two opponents have shot better than 45% during that time! As a result, the Under is 10-5-1 their last 16 games.  This team ranks fifth nationally in defensive efficiency, allowing just 0.92 points per possession.  Both Maryland and UConn were held to 12 points fewer than their respective season averages against KU.

Villanova happens to rank 11th in defensive efficiency, so the kind of shooting they allowed to Miami is pretty rare.  It also says something that they only gave up 69 points in the game as six straight opponents have now been held under the 70-point threshold ('Nova allows just 63.3 PPG for the season). I expect possessions to be at a premium in this one, as the stakes are so high, and Kansas is 5-1 Under as a neutral court favorite of three points or less. (Under is 14-8 in Nova's L22 neutral court games as well).  This is a pretty high number by both teams' standards as far as the O/U line is concerned.  10* Under Villanova/Kansas

8* Utah (8:05 ET):  While my own personal power ratings say this might be a bit of an overlay, that doesn't take into account that this is just a brutal spot for Minnesota, who won in double overtime last night in Washington. I was fortunate enough to be on the T'wolves in that one as they came from behind to defeat the Wizards 132-129 as nine-point dogs. It was their fifth consecutive cover, but here is where that streak comes to an end as we know this team has really struggled ATS at home this season (13-21) and Utah is going to be in a surly mood considering what happened to them in their most recent game (lost 113-91 in Oklahoma City). Lay the points here in a game the Jazz simply must have.

Utah enters the day tied for eighth in the Western Conference thanks to Dallas losing last night at Golden State.  While they have spent much of the year on the "outside looking in" when it comes to playoff position, Utah has the fifth best point differential in the West and by that metric should have 39 wins, rather than 35.  These two Northwest Division rivals have split a pair of games so far this season, each winning at home, but the key to me is that the Jazz are the far superior defensive outfit as they rank #2 in the league in points allowed (96.6 per game) while the T'wolves are 24th (106.1).  After facing the ultra-efficient Thunder, I expect major improvement on the defensive end from Utah tonight, plus this price range has surprisingly been just fine for them as they've won the last five times as road chalk of -6.5 to -9 points, including a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS mark this season.

You just have to wonder what Minnesota will have left in the tank here after leaving it all on the court last night?  Going from road to home, without rest, has not been a favorable situation for them this year as they are 1-3 SU/ATS while being outscored by 7.0 PPG.  Rarely do we find the T'wolves coming off B2B victories, but the only two times it has happened since the end of November, they've lost the next time out by double digits both times. Overall, this team is just 2-11 SU in the second game of a back to back, getting outscored by 8.8 points per game. 8* Utah

10* Under Ducks/Senators (7:05 ET):  In the midst of a five-game trek through Canada, things have gotten a bit wild for Anaheim as the last two games, both high-scoring affairs, have seen them come out on the losing end. First, it was a 4-3 loss at Montreal, then on Thursday they lost 6-5 at Toronto, in overtime.  Giving up that many goals over a two-game span is quite peculiar for a team that has gotten as strong of play between the pipes as this one has. Keep in mind that the Ducks allow the third fewest goals per game in the league and have the top ranked penalty kill.  Of course, their offense generally can't be trusted, therefore I'm on the Under here in a matchup w/ an Ottawa team that has scored just three times in its last two games.

In many ways, the Senators are the exact opposite of the Ducks. They are 7th in the league in goals per game, but 28th in goals allowed.  They also have horrible special teams.  So, this matchup is certainly an interesting contrast of styles. But as mentioned above, Ottawa hasn't been scoring much lately, outside of a 5-0 win over Montreal last Saturday. The game before that one saw them score just one time in a loss at Buffalo, then they've scored just three times in the last two games. While allowing far too many shots has been a problem all season, that actually wasn't the case the L2 games as they've allowed a total of just 45.  Likely starter Craig Anderson has a .931 save percentage at home this season, so I expect the team to be in good shape defensively against an Anaheim team that often struggles to score. One area that the Sens are NOT in good shape, however, is on the power play where they are 0 for 28 the last 11 games. That drought figures to remain unchanged here against the league's top penalty killing unit.

Whether you're talking John Gibson or Frederik Andersen, the Ducks are typically in good shape between the pipes (Andersen appears to be the more likely starter here).  What surprised me most about the loss to the Maple Leafs was that the usually-reliable PK unit gave up THREE goals. So, again, given Ottawa's struggles w/ the man advantage, a return to form should be expected here for the Ducks, who held Ottawa to just one goal in the team's prior meeting this season.  10* Under Ducks/Senators

10* Oklahoma (6:05 ET):  So, I had Duke rated higher than Oregon and while my big Sweet 16 play may not have panned out, it stands to reason that I would clearly have Oklahoma rated higher than the Ducks and I do.  I feel that Thursday's misfire was more about overrating the Blue Devils than any kind of misread on the Ducks, who remember failed to cover in their second round game vs. St. Joe's (trailed by seven late in the second half). Meanwhile, OU had not done much covering of late, that was until a very impressive performance against Texas A&M in the Sweet 16 where they won 77-63 as 2.5-pt chalk. That snapped a seven-game ATS slide and I believe the Sooners continue to "get some back" here en route to their first Final Four appearance since 2002! '

Oregon has won a season-high 11 games in a row and they've covered in seven of the past nine victories.  However, what's interesting is that they are the only team in action Saturday that has not been ranked #1 in the human polls at any point this season. Now, I'm not one to ever put a ton of stock into what the pollsters say, it just so happens that the computers tend to have an even less favorable look of the Ducks. They've clearly been "at their best" of late w/ a 19-point average margin of victory the L5 games.  But certainly the Pac 12 can be called into question at this point (none of the other teams survived the 1st weekend) and I feel that them being favored here is an overreaction to what they did against an admittedly short-handed Duke team.

One thing that Oregon should be scared about here is that Oklahoma's Buddy Hield was not necessarily at his "best" Thursday against A&M.  The likely Player of the Year scored only 17 points, but all other Sooners starters were in double figures as well.  I think that after all the struggles at the betting window down the stretch, OU currently represents an excellent "buy low" opportunity here.  They actually average more points per game than does Oregon and are incredibly prolific from three-point range (42.6%!).  The key here could end up being defense and the Sooners rank 21 spots higher in terms of efficiency (14 vs. 35) on that end of the court.  Wrong team favored. 10* Oklahoma

10* Indiana (6:05 ET):  Brooklyn is a bad team coming off a rare SU win (over Cleveland!), so now would be the proper time to fade as this number just looks too low to me.  The Nets offense has exploded over the last five games (108.0 PPG), but I think that it's critical to remember that they average only 98.0 over the course of the season and tonight's opponent, Indiana, just held two bad teams under 85 points in a pair of easy victories.  The Pacers are currently tied for seventh in the Eastern Conference, only two games clear of ninth, so they don't dare "fool around" and drop this one.  I'm laying the points.

Now the one area of concern here for Indiana is that Paul George (currently listed as a "game-time decision") may not play here as he made an early exit (bruised right leg) in the team's 92-84 home win over undermanned New Orleans Thursday night.  Given what we've seen from the Pacers defensively in the last two games, George's potential absence doesn't scare me off as Brooklyn would rate right between New Orleans and Philadelphia, neither of whom was able to shoot better than 42% against Indiana. The Nets are just 27th in terms of offensive efficiency and as I said due for a decline in scoring almost immediately.  They are actually worse defensively (28th in efficiency) and it was pretty shocking to see them hold Cleveland to only 95 points after their previous five opponents averaged 112.2 PPG against them. Simply put, with or without George, the Pacers should find ways to score in this one.

Following a SU win, Brooklyn is a woeful 3-16 SU their next time out and getting outscored by nearly seven points per game.  Twice we've caught them in this role in March and both times (at Chicago, at Minnesota), they lost by double digits.  This is a better opponent that they're facing here and I don't think home court advantage is enough to counteract their season-long struggles as the team is still being outscored by almost 5.0 PPG at the Barclays Center this year and has a 13-24 SU record.  10* Indiana

9* San Jose (4:05 ET):  I feel like I've been through this "song and dance" before, but suffice to say that the Sharks would be in an even better position right now were it not for a disappointing 16-17-3 home record.  I had the misfortune of taking them in a 1-0 loss to St. Louis on Tuesday, then they dropped yet another one here, this time 6-3 to Edmonton on Thursday.  Still very safe in terms of playoff position (up 15 pts for 3rd in the Pacific), San Jose's goal remains garnering home ice advantage for their first round series, which would be against either the Kings or Ducks. Of course, they are only five points back of first place!  I rate them as a top four team in the West and don't see them dropping a third in a row here on home ice.

The visitor here is Dallas, a formidable challenger considering they come into Saturday in the driver's seat in the Central. But they just lost two night ago in Arizona, which really isn't a very good sign. By now, we all know the story with the Stars as they are quite prolific in goal scoring (1st in the league), but not so much when it comes to stopping their opponent from scoring (24th in goals allowed).  This dichotomy probably places a lower ceiling than they'd like on any potential playoff run and for tonight's purposes, I'd like to point out that they are coming off their lowest scoring game in a month and are down their second leading scorer (Tyler Seguin). Goalie Antii Niemi has struggled on the road all season (.896 save percentage) and over his last four starts is at just .867. 

San Jose "should" have a much better home record. Not just because most teams typically win more than they lose at their own rink, but also because of the numbers. On average, they are outshooting opponents 32.9 to 25.2 this season in home games and have a positive scoring differential here. Thursday's loss to Edmonton was emblematic of the issues as they outshot the Oilers 26-22, but blew a two-goal lead. This woeful 8.6 shooting percentage at home HAS to rise as the team is third in the league overall in goals per game.  Martin Jones (.937 L4 starts) gives them the necessary edge in goal they need this afternoon. 9* San Jose

8* Dallas (10:35 ET):  The Mavericks have treated me kindly in each of their last two games (both covers vs. Portland), so why not look to make it three in a row tonight as they are catching a big number in Golden State?  Now these teams just met last Friday and it was the Warriors coming out on top, in Dallas, by a score of 130-112 as nine-point chalk. While the win and cover there improved the NBA Champs' record vs. Dallas to 9-2 - both SU and ATS - the last 11 meetings, it should be noted that it was a three-point game midway through the fourth quarter.  Having lost 8 out of their last 10 overall, the Mavs have fallen a game below .500 and they are now dangerously close to missing the playoffs (just one-half game ahead of ninth place Utah).  I don't see them getting blown out here. Take the points.

Golden State is off yet another big win, so of course the line here is going to be a little bit inflated.  They beat the Clippers 114-98 Wednesday night, a high profile TV win, so there may be a bit of "letdown" in store for tonight.  Yes, they continue to "chase history" as in the 1996 Bulls single season record of 72 wins. But with seven of their next eight games coming here at home and two games "to spare," I think that the reality of this happening is going to settle in, which leads to complacency. As a favorite of more than 12.5 points this season, the Warriors are just 10-9 ATS.  Steph Curry has shown recent signs of being human by going just 7 of 31 from three-point range the last three games.

How can Dallas compete here?  Well, Dirk Nowitzki has been hot lately, averaging 26.1 PPG his last nine. Remember that the Mavs did deal the Warriors one of their seven losses this season, albeit that game came when Curry was out of the lineup. But still, they competed hard for 3.5 quarters against them last week and taking a more generous spread has enticed me.  Including Wednesday's loss in Portland, six of Dallas' last eight losses have been by seven points or less.  8* Dallas

10* Indiana (9:55 ET): North Carolina is a hot team right now as they've won seven straight and many now consider them to be the "co-favorite" (along w/ Kansas) to cut down the nets next week.  But I'm not sure any team has a better win so far in this tournament than Indiana considering the manner that they downed chic Final Four pick Kentucky in the last round. Before we go crowning the Tar Heels anything just yet, let's remember that despite those final scores, they were somewhat tooth and nail w/ both Florida Gulf Coast and Providence into the second half. I think this is an overlay as Sweet 16 underdogs of more than three points have tended to excel through the years.  Take the points.

All of the #1 seeds won their first round game by double digits, as was to be expected, but North Carolina was the only one that struggled somewhat.  The Heels were up by just one at the half against Florida Gulf Coast and actually outrebounded for the game!  Very scary is the fact that they allowed FGCU to shoot 60 percent from the floor in the first half!  Against Providence, they again pulled away late for a somewhat misleading final score. That game was tied with just over 15 minutes to go.  Indiana is going to be a far "taller order" here as not only do the Hoosiers come in averaging 82.3 points per game (11th nationally, tied w/ UNC), but they are 4-2 straight up and against the spread this season when taking points.

Of course, it was a win of the outright variety in the last round for the Hoosiers as they really looked impressive in dispatching of Kentucky by a score of 73-67 (were +3.5).  They held UK to its second lowest scoring output of the season and did so by holding them to just 35.4% shooting in the half court.  North Carolina is not a great shooting team, at least from three-point range where they're just 30.3 percent for the year outside of Chapel Hill.   Indiana actually got by w/ a relatively subpar effort on the offensive end themselves vs. Kentucky (28.6% from 3-pt range), but if you recall also scored 99 points in their opening round contest vs. Chattanooga. This is a team that has lost just two games by more than five points all year. 10* Indiana

10* Under Magic/Heat (8:05 ET):  Ok, I'm going to try this again.  Miami has now gone Over in eight straight games and I've (unsuccessfully) tried to buck that trend in the last two, only to see my bet thwarted in the final seconds both times.  Tonight, it's a home date w/ division rival Orlando, the only team in the Southeast that has no realistic shot at making the playoffs.  These Floridian foes actually have not met since the day after X-Mas and while that game did go Over the total, the number was also significantly lower than what it is here - by about 18 points! So there's added value right there in going Under the total here as eventually the amount of overall scoring we're seeing in Heat games has to go down. How about tonight? Take the Under.

Remember that Miami, for much of the year, was the top Under team in the league. Despite the recent Over surge, they still are the only team in the Eastern Conference that neither scores nor allows over 100 PPG for the year.  (Utah is actually the only other team in the league that can claim that).  The addition of Joe Johnson has been what's keyed the offensive resurgence, and while that's been nice, what about the regression on the defensive end?  That is what has cost them in all of their recent losses and they've now allowed 108.0 PPG over their last five, which is nearly ten more than their season average.  Again, totals this high have been exceptionally rare for the Heat all season.

Luckily for Miami is the fact that Orlando is not a good offensive team as they come in averaging just 99.1 PPG on the road and are just 26th in terms of efficiency.  Now, they have lost five in a row and the defense was torched for 118 points by the Pistons Wednesday night, but I don't see Miami shooting 53% from the floor here like Detroit did.  The Heat only scored 88 points their last game (loss at San Antonio) and still rank in the bottom four in the league in terms of pace of play.  Orlando is 10-3 Under its last 13 road games when the total is 210 points or higher.  10* Under Magic/Heat

8* Charlotte (7:35 ET):  Even with the benefit of home court advantage, I'm not sure that Detroit should be the favorite here as the Hornets have been the best team in the East since February 1st (going 18-5 straight up!) and league-wide only the Spurs and Warriors have been better during that time.  Of course, Charlotte just stunned San Antonio (rallied back to win after trailing 30-7) earlier this week, and then showed me something by avoiding what could have been an obvious letdown (although they didn't cover) by winning at Brooklyn the following night.  Having just beaten the Pistons by 15 earlier this month, which improved their head to head record to 7-2 SU/ATS L9 aganist them, the road team looks like a great play tonight.

Now Detroit comes into this game on a four-game win streak and is an impressive 23-12 SU at home this year (+6.0 PPG) including 5-1 ATS when laying three points or less. But this win streak of theirs has come at the expense of nothing but bad teams (Sacramento, Brooklyn, Milwaukee and Orlando to be precise) and all four games were here at home.  They did lose to Atlanta here the last time they hosted a likely playoff adversary. Though their offensive numbers have been way up in recent days, it's important to note that in terms of "true shooting" numbers, the Pistons are third from the bottom in the league (ahead of only the Kobe-led Lakers and Philadelphia).  So it is their recent offensive production that is more likely to regress than Charlotte's.

Speaking of Charlotte's offense, they have topped 100 pts in 10 of the last 13 games and the three-pointer has been a big weapon for them as they've already set franchise marks for most three-pointers made and attempted in a single season.  Their straight up road record doesn't concern me at all as they have a winning ATS record when taking points away from home.  They are also one of just five teams in the entire league in rank in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency (Spurs, Warriors, Cavaliers, Clippers).  That's good enough for me here.  8* Charlotte

8* Tampa Bay (7:30 ET):  This is a really important game, for both teams, who are the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Lightning, who have cooled off some since a nine-game win streak (just 3-3-1 L7), are currently in second place in the Atlantic, two points back of Florida.  The Islanders situation is a bit more precarious as they are in fourth in the Metro, meaning they'd be a Wild Card, and there are two teams just two points back of them. There's certainly more reason to be concerned w/ the Isles right now as they've dropped six of eight overall and both wins came on the road. In fact, they haven't won on the road in nearly three weeks! That won't change after tonight.  Go with the home team.

The key for Tampa Bay, as it is for most teams, is getting shots on goal. In their last three wins, they have averaged 35.7 shots per game. In their last three losses, they've averaged just 22.0.  They've totaled 70 shots the L2 games, both wins, where they outscored opponents 8-2. It was an impressive 6-2 win here on home ice Tuesday vs. Detroit that at the time tied them w/ Florida atop the division. It was nice to see an offensive performance like that as the team has struggled more than expected on that end of the ice all season. But the goaltending situation is solid (#2 in goals allowed). Ben Bishop has a .953 save percentage his L4 starts.  The Panthers won last night, now it's time for the Lightning to respond in kind. 

As for the Isles, they've averaged just 24.4 shots their last five games.  They've been doubled up in goals during that same span and while Wednesday's win (3-1 over Ottawa) was nice, the bottom line is that this club has been struggling.  They'd scored just five goals total the previous four games and as I alluded to earlier, it's been a long time since they won on the road. That last road win came on March 6th vs. the Rangers, so you'd actually have to go back three days earlier (Winnipeg) to find the last time they won a game outside their own city.  With Jaroslav Halak still sidelined, goaltending is a bit of a concern here. Thomas Greiss has filled in somewhat admirably, but the bottom line is that the team has lost five of his last six starts.  8* Tampa Bay

10* Over Iowa St/Virginia (7:10 ET):  This will be billed as a "clash of styles" as Iowa State averages 81.8 points per game (15th most nationally) while Virginia allows just 57.0 PPG (6th fewest).  However, let's not allow the fact that BOTH teams here rank in the top 10 nationally in offensive efficiency to be overlooked. So the possibility of a relatively high scoring game is certainly there and furthermore, I find it interesting that of all the Sweet 16 games, this is the only one that is receiving overwhelming support on the Under. That's unusual to see so many tickets in one game being written on the Under (public traditionally 'loves' Overs), so this is the rare shot to be contrarian and call for an Over. From ISU's perspective, this is certainly a low number.

Virginia has allowed more than its season average in three of the past four games. The exception would be the first round game vs. 16-seed Hampton, who was completely outmatched.  In the second round game vs. Butler, they gave up 69 points and the game easily went Over the total.  Now, the Under remains 9-3 their L12 games overall and this looks like it will close as one of the highest totals for any Hoos game this season.  But consider that Iowa State team will likely be the best offensive outfit they've faced all year long.  I know the Cavs hosted Oakland (#1 in PPG nationally) earlier this season, but the Golden Grizzlies are just 19th in efficiency, meaning they tend to need more possessions that does ISU. Speaking of offense, UVA is underrated in that department as this year's team averaged 71 PPG, a high for the Tony Bennett era.  They are sixth in efficiency, averaging almost 1.2 points per possessions and have shot better than 52% from the floor in five of the past six games. Against Butler, the Cavs shot 73% in a second half that saw nearly 100 total points scored!

I took the Under in Iowa State's last game as they faced off w/ an Arkansas Little Rock squad whose goal was to slow the tempo down. The big difference between that matchup and this one is that the Trojans rank just 89th in offensive efficiency. The Cyclones held them to just 61 points on 37% shooting. But let's not forget how ISU allowed 81 points to Iona in its first round tournament game, which also saw nearly 100 total pts scored in the second half. They also are still 13-3 Over in neutral site games where the total is 140 to 144.5 and 8-2 Over when playing w/ five or six days rest.  Even though Virginia shot well overall vs. Butler, they were just 2 for 10 from three-point range, one of their worst performances from behind the arc all season. So we should improvement there and this one sails past the number. 10* Over Iowa State/Virginia

8* Minnesota (7:05 ET):  Due to a recent surge by Washington, this looks like a bit of an overlay to me.  Minnesota has been fighting hard down the stretch, covering their last four games, and they are coming off a win (113-104 vs. Sacramento) to boot.  The Wizards, meanwhile, just had a four-game win streak snapped w/ a home loss to Atlanta (2nd game of a home & home) and while they're still in playoff contention, this team's mediocre home record and subpar defense would have me concerned if I were to be laying points in this situation (Spoiler alert: I'm not!).  Yes, the T'wolves just lost to the Wizards earlier this month, at home, by a score of 104-98 and they were 3.5-pt dogs there. But that was w/ Washington owning a 64-18 edge in bench points, which isn't likely to be repeated here. Take the points.

The Wiz also shot 50% overall in the season's first meeting, including 11 of 29 from three-point range.  That sounds nice, but those are difficult numbers to maintain and the fact is this team has been woefully inconsistent for much of the year. After beating Minnesota, they would lose their next five games, followed by a five-game win streak. Wednesday vs. Atlanta saw them give up 122 points, raising their season average to 104.2 PPG allowed.  They are just 2-7 - both SU and ATS - against the Northwest Division this season, giving up an average of more than 110 PPG.  At home, they're barely above .500 straight up (19-18) and that's after winning three of four here. 

Minnesota may be out of contention, but they have a nice young nucleus w/ Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine.  That trio combined for 72 points in the team's win over Sacramento two nights ago. Because they're almost always taking points, the T'wolves have been a much better bet on the road than at home this year, going 21-15 ATS and they're being outscored by less than four points per game with much of that competition being better than tonight's opponent. As a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points, they are 7-4 ATS.  Over the last five games, this team is averaging an impressive 109.2 PPG, making the points look very attractive here. 8* Minnesota

10* LA Clippers (10:35 ET):  Both teams played last night and in each case I got the result I was looking for. I went against Portland, so I was very happy to see them come up short by one-half point at home vs. Dallas (won 109-103, -6.5). As for the Clippers, well, as one might expect they lost at Golden State.  But the final score there (114-98 as 9.5-pt dogs) sets us up beautifully here as the home team is now drastically being undervalued. Los Angeles has now failed to cover seven of their last eight games while losing three in a row - both SU and ATS.  But the Blazers are weak on the road, going just 2-7 SU there this month and the two wins came at the expense of the lowly Knicks and Pelicans. Lay the points here.

Over the last five games, all of them taking place on the road, the Clips have allowed an average of 110 PPG, an astounding number to say the least.  Now, they did play both San Antonio and Golden State during the trip, but losses to undermanned Memphis and New Orleans were downright inexcusable. A return home should be just "what the doctor ordered" for Doc Rivers' club as they are 22-12 SU here for the season and allowing just 99.3 PPG. Again, their opponent has really struggled on the road (just 15-23 SU) and allows 105.8 PPG.  Being the second game of a back to back for both seems to favor the Clips as they are 9-6 SU in that situation while Portland is just 5-11 (3-7 on the road).

The Blazers defense has also been a liability of late as they've allowed a frightening 116.7 PPG their last 10 contests. Unlike the Clips, who should improve on that end due to being back at home, Portland is afforded no such benefit.  LA has not lost four straight games at any point during this season, going 2-0 SU when on a three-game losing streak.  They are also 9-5 SU (8-5-1 ATS) when coming off a double digit loss.  My own personal power ratings suggest that this line is simply too low and I have the home team bouncing back in this one.  10* LA Clippers

10* Duke (10:05 ET):  The wrong team is favored here. I simply don't know any other way to say it. It's not just that Oregon, clearly, was the weakest #1 seed coming into the draw. But also, compare the ACC's performance in this Tournament to that of the Pac 12 and I feel it tells the story. The ACC has placed a record six teams among the Sweet 16 while the Ducks are the lone remaining Pac 12 representative as five of the other six failed to even get out of the first round!  UO does arrive into the Sweet 16 riding a season-best 10-game win streak, but they had a close call w/ St. Joe's in the Rd of 32 (I cashed the dog plus the points) and for a second straight game will fade the Ducks.  This time I anticipate an outright win, but take the points anyway.

Though both of these teams won by similar margins in the Round of 32, that's a bit misleading.  Duke led Yale by as many as 27 points before the Bulldogs stormed back (cutting the lead to as little as three!) and still was able to (barely) cover as six-point chalk in a 71-64 victory.  Oregon, meanwhile, trailed St. Joe's by as many as seven points late in the second half before storming back to win the game.  While the Blue Devils depth can absolutely be questioned, so too can the Ducks' as both teams are likely to go only seven deep Thursday. Duke has the better scoring duo w/ Grayson Allen and Brandon Ingram both averaging over 20 points per game in the Tournament.  No other team left can say they have that (two players averaging 20+ PPG).  I think it's very important to remember that the Blue Devils sport the fourth most efficient offense in the country. They are also the defending National Champs & 7-2 ATS their last nine NCAA Tournament games.

Duke's two weaknesses are defense and rebounding, but I'm not sure Oregon will take advantage of those in the manner expected.  Sure, the Ducks can score (78.9 PPG), but they had only six assists and 35 rebounds vs. St. Joe's. Offensive rebounds can be had against them. They were lucky that the Hawks struggled in transition in that last game. Duke may have only had to beat a 13 and 12 seed to get here, but remember this is a team that has lost by more than five points only three times since November.  I give Coach K the edge over Dana Altman w/ all this time to prepare, which is important, as is the fact Oregon is just 241st in 3-pt FG% allowed and Duke shoots 38.7% from behind the arc.  10* Duke

8* Maryland (9:40 ET): Kansas comes into the Sweet 16 w/ an aura of invincibility, but this is a season where such an aura is by no means reality and I think this shapes up as an overlay against Maryland team that treated me well in their last game. My biggest play from the first weekend was on the Terrapins against Hawaii and despite going a woeful 1 for 18 from three-point range, they won that game with "room to spare," 73-60 as 6.5-point chalk.  I can't fathom they'll be so bad again from behind the arc (36.7% for the year) and that means trouble for the Jayhawks, who are "due" to drop one at the betting window after covering 13 of their last 16.  Sweet 16/Elite 8 favorites of more than three points are just 37-54 ATS (40.7%) ATS. Take the points.

In my analysis for the Maryland-Hawaii game, I made mention that the Terps appear to be vastly underrated right now. It was just last month that they were 22-3 straight up and ranked #2 in the human polls!  Four of the five losses they've taken since then have been by five points or less!  I think that it's pretty interesting to find that the majority of wagers on this game have (predictably) been on the favorite, yet the line has not moved an inch (as of Wednesday night). While the majority of tickets have been written on Kansas, the overall handle is relatively split, indicating that there's some potential sharp money on the dog here. 

Again, Maryland's three-point shooting can only improve even going against a KU defense that has been pretty stingy to this point.  All five Terrapins starters average in double figures, led by Melo Trimble, who did an outstanding job of getting to the foul line in the Hawaii game (23 attempts).  I also believe the Terps happen to have the size to combat the Jayhawks' excellent front court.  While their three-point shooting has been poor to this point, Maryland shot a ridiculous 70 percent from 2-point range vs. Hawaii. That will almost certainly go down here, but will be offset from the likely improvement from three-point range.  Defensively, they held Hawaii to just 0.86 points per possession, which is impressive. I just think that after getting through the first two rounds virtually unscathed, Kansas is due for a close game.  8* Maryland

8* Under Flames/Wild (8:05 ET):  Thanks to three consecutive one-goal victories, Minnesota has found itself into playoff position right now as they are one point ahead of division rival Colorado for the final Wild Card in the Western Conference. Each of those last three games saw five or less total goals scored, so with tonight's approach likely ranging somewhere in between "cautious" and "conservative," I'm banking on another low-scoring affair. The Wild need to continue to rack up points and even if it's just one, they'll take it.  While their opponent has seen a recent rash of high-scoring games, that's due to change quickly as Calgary has been well above season-long averages on the offensive end recently. Take the Under.

Though these teams have met only once all year, it's safe to say that the Wild has have had the Flames number for some time now. A 5-3 win in Calgary last month improved them to 6-1 the last seven meetings and that includes a perfect 3-0 record here at home. One might expect an opponent like the Flames might make for a wide-open type game this time of the year, but the fact is Minnesota is 17-9 Under its last 26 games vs. teams with a losing record.  They should be in good shape in goal here w/ Devan Dubnyk having posted a 1.58 goals against average his last three starts overall and a 1.74 GAA his last four starts against the Flames.  Minnesota has also killed off 15 straight power plays and will be facing the league's 28th ranked power play here.

The Flames may rank dead last in the league in goals allowed (3.1 per game allowed), but it is the very likely decline in offensive numbers that will help make the Under possible here.  It was just five games ago that they stunned everyone w/ a 7-4 win over St. Louis.  They've followed by scoring 13 goals in their last four games, but consider their shot percentage is a lofty 13.7% during this time and that's well above their season-long average of 9.4%.  As far as goal prevention goes, Calgary will have former Minnesota netminder Niklas Backstrom in their own goal tonight and he should be fired up to face his former team.  Minnesota is only 17th in the league in goals per game. 8* Under Wild/Flames

9* Over Canadiens/Red Wings (7:35 ET):  Though they did win their last time out, this miserable season (Carey Price injury) probably can't end soon enough for Montreal as they - clearly - are not going to make the playoffs as they currently face a nine-point deficit w/ just eight games to play. Their opponent tonight is currently tied for the final Wild Card in the Eastern Conference, that being Detroit, who lost its most recent game while giving up six goals in the process.  The Habs are off a high-scoring affair themselves, a 4-3 win over Anaheim, and in fact seven of their last nine games have seen either them or the opponent score at least four times.  Sounds like we should expect plenty of goals here tonight. Take the Over.

Though division rivals, these two actually haven't met since December. Both prior meetings this year have seen exactly five total goals scored, but Price started the one Montreal win (4-1) and stopped 21 of 22 shots in the process.  While this is no recent "thing," it cannot be understated just how much Montreal's goaltending has fallen off since the Price injury (took place back in late November!).  The other three goaltenders all have save percentages below .910 and the team is now 22nd in the league in goals allowed. It will most likely be Ben Scrivens between the pipes tonight and he has a 3.52 goals against average his last six starts, not to mention an .891 save percentage on the road for the season.

The Red Wings have also been giving up their fair share of goals lately, as in nine total the last two games.  While both games may have been on the road, neither goaltending option here - Jimmy Howard or Petr Mrazek - is overly appealing.  Detroit's best shot here is to "outscore" Montreal and they certainly should have their fair share of opportunities to do so as the Canadiens are giving up an average of 36.0 shots per game their last five.  The Red Wings do not have much of a problem getting the puck towards the net (31.0 shots/game) and it should be points out that Montreal is 14-4 Over this season, on the road, when the O/U line is 5.0.  9* Over Canadiens/Red Wings

8* Columbus (7:05 ET):  Here we go again with a battle of two teams out of playoff contention and me being on the home side. This has worked out quite well for me of late w/ Winnipeg over Vancouver, Toronto over Calgary, New Jersey over Columbus, Ottawa over Montreal and Edmonton over Vancouver and that's just over the past week. Of course, regardless of situation, I've done quite well with my NHL sides this season, going 58-34 L92!  But I'm not here to brag, but rather tell you about why Columbus is a good play tonight when they welcome in Carolina. The visiting 'Canes, at least according to Fenwick and Corsi, have been somewhat underrated this year, but they come into tonight's game as losers of five straight. The Blue Jackets, meanwhile, actually have posted a winning record (in regulation) since November after that awful start.

This five game losing streak has seen the Hurricanes give up way more shots than per usual (32.0 per game) plus they're not scoring either (1.8 goals/game).  That's a bad combo and given that we're talking about a team that never really found its way into contention this season, I find it hard to believe that the players will find "the fire" to start climbing out of this hole, at least when on the road.  Goaltending has been a liability for Carolina all season long w/ a collective .902 save percentage between Cam Ward and Eddie Lack.  The former is more likely to go here and he is just 3-7 SU in division contests this year. Ward allowed three goals on just 25 shots Tuesday in a home loss to Buffalo.

Columbus has struggled in the past against Carolina (2-7 L9 matchups), but again I think that the home ice is key here as they have won six of nine here at Nationwide Arena while the 'Canes have dropped four in a row on the road.  Though only 2-3 their last five games, the Blue Jackets have averaged an impressive 36.0 shots per game during that same stretch after tallying a season-high 53 in Tuesday's shootout win over the Flyers.  It was the team's fourth straight game outshooting their opponent. Sergei Bobrovsky has been shockingly subpar between the pipes for the Jackets this year at home, but I'd still take him over his Carolina counterpart.  8* Columbus

8* Dallas (10:05 ET):  This is the second game of a home and home between these two and considering that I thought the Mavs were a strong value as a pick 'em at home Sunday (won 132-120 in overtime), I'm really liking the value here in Portland where they are taking a pretty big number. Again, I have these teams rated fairly evenly in my latest power rankings (Dallas actually slightly better), so anything over three points here is really a premium.  Yes, the Mavs are now without Chandler Parsons the rest of the way, but they really controlled Sunday's game, leading much of the way and really should have wrapped things up in regulation.  Take the points.

Now, the Mavs did fall behind 36-25 at the end of the first quarter and got season-best performances from both Dirk Nowitzki and Deron Williams Sunday.  It will obviously be hard for the two players to repeat those efforts, but at the same time I don't see the team falling into such an early hole again. Portland came out on fire (6 of 12 from three-point range in the first quarter), but cooled off significantly after that.  Again, this second half (of the season) renaissance we've seen from the Blazers is quite stunning considering where they were projected to finish at the start of the season (lost four starters from LY's playoff team, including All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge).  They've recently "given a little back" in that they are just 3-7 SU L10 games w/ all three wins coming against non-playoff teams, two of them close.

Dallas seems to be in a good price range here as they are 7-3 ATS this season as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points.  The Parsons injury has clearly had an effect on the way they are viewed by the linesmakers and the public.  However, note that this team has scored a combined 225 points in regulation its last two games, thus taking this many points sounds generous.  Prior to beating the Blazers on Sunday, the Mavs had dropped seven of eight, but four of those losses were by six points or less and three of them were by a combined six points.  Only one-half game separates these two in the standings and with only 1.5 games being the difference between sixth and ninth place in the West, the Mavs are not going to roll over.  8* Dallas

10* Under Heat/Spurs (8:35 ET):  Well, going with the Heat Under didn't pan out last night as a very high scoring third quarter w/ the Pelicans (60 total points) set in motion the play's doom. The game still only finished two points Over the total, so it's not as if it was a bad call as I still firmly believe we're due to a see an overall decrease scoring in Miami games, both offensively and defensively.  This team spent much of this season as the top Under bet in the league, but of course when you speak of defense, you must mention the Spurs, who lead the league in defensive efficiency by giving up just 95.5 points per 100 possessions. There's a 3.5 point difference between San Antonio & the #2 team, so here is where we get the elusive Heat Under. 

Now, I should point out that the Spurs are off a loss here and a shocking one at that. After jumping out to a seemingly insurmountable 30-7 lead in Charlotte Monday, they lost 91-88.  After seeing the Spurs initial advantage, I was absolutely stunned to later see what the final score ended up being (had stopped paying attention to the game altogether). Of course, being off a loss has proven to be a very profitable situation to take San Antonio this year as they are a perfect 10-0 straight (8-2 against the spread). But with the pointspread being so high here, I'll instead point to the fact that they are allowing just 88.9 points per game in that situation.  Here at home, where they are a perfect 35-0 straight up this year, they are allowing an average of just 90.5 PPG. 

While San Antonio is the clear #1 team in the league when it comes to points allowed, Miami isn't too far behind at #4 overall.  But though they just held New Orleans to only 99 points on 39.1% shooting last night, we have seen some recent regression from the Heat on that end, which is part of the reason the Over has now cashed in each of their last seven games. But it's their own increase in scoring (100+ pts in every game this month!) that's played the bigger role. That should come to an end here against the league's best defense, which remember just held Golden State (#1 offense) to 79 points on 37.8% shooting.  Of course, San Antonio has scored only 87 and 88 points its last two games, so while it's a decrease in offense for Miami here, it should also be improvement on the defensive end compared to recent efforts.  One final thing to consider is that both of these teams are near the bottom of the league in pace of play (i.e. number of possessions). 10* Under Heat/Spurs

8* NY Rangers (8:05 ET):  I've recently discussed just how bunched up the Eastern Conference playoff picture is as after the inevitability of Washington being the top seed (now clinched!), teams 2 through 7 are extremely close, which should make for three outstanding first round playoff series. Two such teams in the mix play here w/ the Rangers and Bruins each looking to finish in second place of their respective divisions and thus earn home ice advantage for that opening round best of seven.  Boston has been remarkably good on the road this year overall (23-10-3), but they are coming off an 0-3 trip through Southern California (San Jose, Anaheim, LA) and thus limp into MSG where the Rangers are 24-8-3 this season. Go w/ the home team.

Unlike the Rangers, Boston actually still can finish in first place in their division as they are just three points back of the two Florida teams (Panthers & Lightning) in the Atlantic. But, at the same time, they are currently in third while the Rangers are second in the Metro.  As alluded to above, it was not a pleasant trip out West for the Bruins, who got outscored 9-3 and dropped all three games.  But the worst loss of all could be the one between the pipes as goalie Tuukka Rask is now injured and unlikely to play tonight.  Though Rask was charged with two of the three losses in Southern California, his .931 save percentage on the road this season would sorely be missed here.  His backup Jonas Gustavsson allowed four goals on 26 shots in Friday's loss at Anaheim.  Note that this play stands even if Rask does play.

The Rangers were coming off their own unsuccessful trek through SoCal (went 1-2 against same three opponents) before returning home to defeat Florida 4-2 on Monday.  I really think that the home ice advantage is critical here. Not only has the home side won each of the last five meetings between these two teams, but NY goalie Henrik Lundqvist is 20-7 SU at MSG this year w/ a .921 save percentage.  That includes a 32-save effort versus these Bruins back in January (Rangers won 2-1).  You might think that all the time Boston has had off between games (last played Saturday) will help them, but they are just 1-6 SU this season when taking the ice with at least three days of rest.  8* NY Rangers

10* Florida (7:00 ET):  In yday's analysis on St. Mary's-Valpo, I made mention that when filling out my own NIT bracket (yes, I did one!) that I had the Crusaders making it all the way to the Championship Game. Well, on the other side, I have Florida. Tonight, the Gators are underdogs to a George Washington team that treated me quite well on Monday, beating Monmouth outright.  While a Florida-Monmouth matchup would have provided us with incredible value (on the Gators), drawing GW here still has the contingent from Gainesville priced inaccurately as I have them rated as the better team even after factoring in the home court advantage for the Colonials.  Take the points.

Florida comes into tonight off wins over North Florida and Ohio State, both on the road. What's unique here is that despite being the #2 seed in the region, all of the Gators' games thus far have been away from home. This is because their own arena is currently being renovated. While this would seem to put them at a disadvantage, all it's done is create a ton of value on a team that I have rated the best in the entire NIT field.  It was somewhat of an 'ugly' February at the betting window (1-6 ATS), but a 4-0-1 ATS mark the L5 games has changed that and it was interesting (and deserved) that they were a favorite in Columbus Sunday, a game where they never trailed. With eight losses by six points or less on its resume, Florida is clearly better than its record shows.

George Washington also never trailed in its last game and that was great for me as I had them against Monmouth and didn't even need the points! But if you recall from my analysis, that was more of a play AGAINST Monmouth, who I've felt has been overrated for quite some time.  This is now a big step up for the Colonials, who are just 1-8 ATS their last nine games vs. the SEC, even though they did beat Tennessee earlier this year (didn't cover). Though Monmouth was the top seed in this region, they weren't even close to being the best team and in fact my own power ratings indicate that Florida is coming off the tougher opponent here!  It's highly unlikely that GW will hold such a drastic edge in FG% here like they did vs. Monmouth (51.9% to 34.2%).  10* Florida

10* San Jose (10:35 ET):  This is a battle of teams safely in playoff position.  St. Louis, despite having an inferior YTD goal differential compared to the other top teams in the Central, finds itself just two points back of Dallas. Meanwhile, San Jose is a very safe third over in the Pacific (19 points clear of 4th place) and is battling w/ Anaheim for second place and home ice advantage in that likely first round series.  While the Sharks' league-best 25-10-3 road record is certainly deserving of adulation, you can't help but wonder where they'd be if only they'd been a big stronger on home ice this year.  A losing overall record (16-15-3) is why they find themselves in third and not first, but I think that record is due to start improving moving forward.  Take the Sharks here.

I referenced the Blues' goal differential earlier and to follow up on that point, the team has outscored its opponents by only a nine-goal difference over the course of this season.  That's 14th in the league, so the fact they are competing for the #1 seed in the West shows me they've been both lucky and good.  They are 23-12 in one-goal games to this point (only the Capitals have been better). Tonight marks the end of a five-game road trip that really had not been going well prior to a dominant 3-0 win in Vancouver Saturday night (50-19 edge in shots!). After escaping Dallas w/ an overtime win, St. Louis lost to both Edmonton and Calgary, giving up 13 goals in the process.  I realize that goaltender Brian Elliott is now back, but he did not fare well in two meetings vs. San Jose last month, giving up six goals on 47 shots and getting pulled early one of those times, an eventual 6-3 loss.

The Sharks have a +29 goal differential for the year, which is better than any team from the Central and second only to the Kings in the Western Conference. They rank higher than St. Louis in both Corsi and Fenwick. Over their last five games, they've played really well w/ the only loss coming on the road, 3-1 at Arizona.  They avenged that defeat w/ a 3-0 shutout on Sunday and have now won four straight here at home. This team allows only 25.3 shots per game at home, so that record should be better, especially considering they average 33.0 shots per game themselves here at "The Tank."  A good value on the better team. 10* San Jose

8* Over Oilers/Coyotes (10:05 ET):  I'm getting a little tired of these pushes as I play the Over on a 5.0 goal total (it's happened THREE straight days now!). But, here's a game that should feature plenty of scoring as it should basically be the opposite of a "playoff-like atmosphere" when the Oilers and Coyotes hook up Tuesday night.  The reason that I'm not simply going with the home side in this one is that Arizona is coming of B2B shutout losses while Edmonton has actually been pretty solid of late (won 7 of 12).  As always, when playing Over 5.0, the hope is that the scoring is a little more balanced, which it should be, and the 'Yotes are certainly "due" for an Over, being that the Under has cashed in each of their last five games.

Prior to being shutout these last two games, Arizona had actually won three straight while scoring 11 goals in the process. It's looking like they will get to face Cam Talbot here and that's a good thing considering that in two prior matchups, they've been able to tally seven goals at his expense.  The last came just 10 days ago, during that three-game win streak, when they scored four times on just 29 shots.  Here at home, the 'Yotes offense does average a solid 3.0 goals per game. But, even if Mike Smith gets the starting nod between the pipes here, the problem for this team is still goaltending as they rank 28th in goals allowed. Smith did stop all 44 shots he faced in that last game vs. the Oilers, which is a high number, and it's been back to back games allowing 36 shots on goal entering tonight.

Edmonton certainly figures to fare better than a shutout defeat this go around. Yes, Arizona (Smith, in particular) has had their number through the years. But the Oilers have scored at least two goals now in four straight games and something to keep in mind is that outside of that one remarkable performance vs. St. Louis last week, their power play has scored in only one other game this month! That's got to change, sooner or later. The same holds true for Arizona, who is 0 for 10 w/ the man advantage these last two games.  The Oilers are bottom six in the league in terms of goals allowed. Take the Over.  8* Over Oilers/Coyotes

8* Winnipeg (8:05 ET): This follows my recent trend of simply going w/ the home team in a battle of also-rans that are simply "playing out the string" at this juncture of the season (see Toronto over Calgary last night). Here, we have two teams that have really been struggling of late. Vancouver, I went against in similar fashion last Friday when they were shut out in Edmonton, 2-0.  They followed that w/ another shut out loss, this one at home, 3-0 vs. St. Louis. That was their fourth straight loss, a stretch that has seen them get outscored 13-3.  They are now tied with the Oilers for the worst goal differential in the league (-38). Back on the road again Tuesday, I see no reason why anyone should look to back them in this spot.

Now Winnipeg is hardly inspiring much confidence as of late.  They've lost 9 of 12, not to mention three straight, the last two of which have been here on home ice. After getting shut out themselves (by Chicago) Friday night, they took Anaheim into overtime Sunday before ultimately coming up short on the scoreboard, losing 3-2. But when you look at those last two opponents, you quickly realize that this is a steep drop in class for the Jets.  Their last win in fact, came at Vancouver, 5-2 on March 14th.  They've now beaten the Canucks three straight times dating back to the final meeting of last season. Yes, Winnipeg might be in last place in the Western Conference, but this is an opponent they've proven they can beat.

Something will have to give here as both power plays have been virtually non-existent. Vancouver is 0 for its last 23 w/ the man advantage while Winnipeg is just 2 for 36 this month. But the Canucks' recent form has been really bad, particularly when they were outshot by the Blues 50-16 Saturday night.  Their offense, worst in the conference is averaging just 2.1 goals per game its last 22 after being shut out back to back times.  They've experienced a lot of bad luck on the road this year and I see no reason why that would start to change here.  8* Winnipeg

10* Under Heat/Pelicans (8:05 ET): With no lines posted overnight for today's NBA card, I was left to speculate and truthfully this was the game I had my eye on. The setup is strikingly similar to last night's play on Memphis-Phoenix in that we had one of the worst teams in the league, coming off a rare SU win, playing at home. Typically there's value (as there was last night) in going against the home side in that situation. But it turns out that's not the case here as New Orleans being w/o Anthony Davis has skewed the line way too much in Miami's favor for me to make a play on the side.  But the total, which is high, certainly looks to be a strong play as recent Heat games have seen a dramatic increase in scoring that's due to fade and the Pelicans are of course w/o Davis.  Take the Under.

Miami, the top Under team in the league for much of this season, now no longer owns that distinction (Utah) as the Over has cashed in each of their last six games.  The increase in offense is largely owed to the arrival of Joe Johnson as he is a stunning 23 of 39 on three-point attempts since coming over from Brooklyn.  The team went 11 of 19 from behind the arc in its 122-101 upset of Cleveland Saturday night, at home. They've now topped 100 pts in every game in March, a stunning turn of events considering a 99.3 PPG average for the season. This is one of just two teams now league-wide (Utah) that neither scores nor allows 100 PPG.  While the increase in offense is nice, what about the defense?  For the season, they have allowed just 97.9 PPG, but are up to 107.4 these L5 games. Simply put, we're due for a drop in both points scored and allowed w/ the Heat here.

Of course, New Orleans figures to struggle the rest of the way w/o Davis. They also likely won't have Ryan Anderson in the lineup tonight, so there goes their top two scorers. When these teams met on Christmas Day, it was a 94-88 Heat win and cover (I had the Heat -4!) w/ Davis and Miami's Chris Bosh combining for 59 points and 25 rebounds.  Neither will play here. Also, the O/U line is about 10 points higher for this rematch despite that first meeting staying way Under.  The Pelicans, 8-1 Over their last nine games, like the Heat are due for a lower scoring game than what we've been seeing from them recently. 10* Under Heat/Pelicans

10* Valparaiso (7:00 ET):  Not many people fill out an NIT bracket, but I did, and in the interest of full disclosure, Valpo was in my Championship Game.  The Crusaders, the top-seeded team in their region, I thought had a more legit gripe about being "snubbed" by the NCAA selection committee than say, Monmouth.  So far, they have rolled to a pair of pretty easy wins, beating both Texas Southern and Florida State by double digits on their home floor. Up next is a visit from St. Mary's and while a stiffer test it might be, I still have the Crusaders advancing w/ relative ease. This is not a great spot at all for the visiting Gaels, who are making the trip out East with three less days to prepare than Valpo had. Lay the points.

After escaping New Mexico State, 58-56 in Rd 1, St. Mary's prevailed Sunday over Georgia by a score of 77-65, covering as seven-point chalk.  They are now 18-12 ATS for the season, but that's less impressive when you consider they started a perfect 12-0. Also, this will be only the second non-conference road game of the entire season (seriously!) for the Gaels. The first and only other came all the way back on December 12th when they lost at Cal, 63-59. Incredibly, Tuesday night marks just the second time all season that they have left the Pacific Time Zone! The furthest "East" they have traveled previously would be to the Mountain Time Zone for a date w/ Brigham Young that they ended up losing by 11 points. 

As alluded to above, Valpo has a massive edge as far as time to prepare goes. They last played Thursday while St. Mary's second round game took place on Sunday. That's pretty significant, given this being the Gaels first long road trip of the season. Of the Crusaders' six losses this season, only two were by more than six points and one of them was in overtime, unfortunately in the Horizon League Tournament.  They really should have been in the NCAA Tournament ahead of Tulsa.  Here at home, they are 16-1 SU this season with an average margin of victory of +18.7 points per game.  Prior to the second round win over Florida State (led by 10 at the half, never trailed), the Crusaders had yet to be favored by seven or fewer points at home all season.  This is a really nice value with the short number.  10* Valparaiso  

10* Memphis (10:05 ET):  The Grizzlies are an awfully difficult team to handicap right now due to all the injuries. Pointspreads for their games have generally been overinflated to a high degree, so I guess it shouldn't be all that surprising to find them at 8-4 ATS their last 12 games.  Thursday saw them actually getting a very generous 11 points at Milwaukee (lost by only 10!), but the real shocker came two nights later at home against the Clippers, whom they defeated outright (as nine-point pups) by a score of 113-102.  While a result such as that one might normally have me "steering clear" the next time out, tonight's opponent is Phoenix, themselves off a win (rare!) and there is a major case of revenge in the air in the desert. Lay the short number.

Over the last month, these teams met twice. Incredibly, the Suns won both games. To put that achievement in its proper perspective, note that Phoenix has just three other victories during the time frame and before that had won just twice from December 20th until February 25th!  This time of year, it is wise to go against a team as bad as this when they're off a SU win. Logic dictates that they'll simply be unable to drum up the kind of effort necessary to win two times in a row.  Now the Suns did beat the Grizzlies, in Memphis no less, when off a 102-84 win at Orlando last month. But don't think that will be lost on the Memphis coaching staff or players. Overall, Phoenix is just 5-13 straight up and against the spread when off a SU win this season.

Memphis might be banged up and not as good as its overall record shows, but they are still fighting for a playoff spot.  Right now, they're in pretty good position to finish fifth in the West, which would likely mean playing the Clippers in the first round.  The odds would certainly be against them winning that series (though they did just beat the Clips), but at the same time they'd be higher than a matchup w/ the Thunder, Spurs or Warriors.  The bottom line here essentially is that I simply cannot see the Grizz losing for a third straight time to the Suns.  That can be a dangerous mode of thinking, mind you, but Zach Randolph being back (huge game vs. LA) is a big deal for Memphis and he should play a significant role tonight.  10* Memphis

10* Over Kings/Bulls (8:05 ET):  A strange thing happened last night for Sacramento. It wasn't just that they won a road game, but the manner in which they pulled it off. They gave up just 80 points! However, the skeptic in me wants to point out that came against the Knicks (no Carmelo Anthony) and that for the season the Kings are still allowing a ghastly 109.6 points per game away from home. Similarly, Chicago is off a low-scoring affair, also a win as they downed Utah 92-85 Saturday night.  But as we know, that can be "explained away" by pointing to the fact that the Jazz are one of the best defensive teams in the league, not to mention just one of three teams to neither score nor allow 100 PPG. It will be a serious uptick in points for both sides in this one tonight and I "smell" an Over.

The Bulls are not good defensively.  They allow 102.9 PPG, which is more than all but four teams in the Eastern Conference. The hard-nosed identity they developed under former HC Tom Thibodeau has disappeared under Fred Hoiberg and while it would be unfair to pin that all on the "The Mayor" the fact is this team rates just middle of the pack in terms of defensive efficiency.  They tend to be stronger at home on the defensive end, but consider their last home game - against Brooklyn - saw 220 total points scored. It's a similar matchup here against an also-ran, an opponent that will have little interest in playing defense.  When these two met in Sacramento last month, there were "only" 209 total pts scored (Bulls won 107-102), but the Kings missed seven of 19 free throw attempts and were only 6 of 20 from three-point range. They should be better than that here.

Of course, Sacramento's defensive numbers over the course of the season are nothing short of downright abysmal.  They allow the most points per game in the entire league and by also playing at the league's fastest pace (Chicago is a surprising 12th in that category), there should be plenty of scoring opportunities in this one - for both sides.  There is no data to consider about how the Kings play after allowing 85 pts or less their previous game, because before last night it had never happened this season! 10* Over Kings/Bulls

10* Toronto (7:35 ET): I've had a little bit of success recently in matchups of teams respectively 'playing out the string' by simply going with the one that has home ice advantage. (Think Edmonton over Vancouver the other night).  Another such opportunity presents itself on Monday's card w/ the Maple Leafs hosting the Flames. The situation 'North of the Border' has grown dire in the NHL as none of the league's Canadian teams appear likely to make the playoffs. Calgary did last year, but was an obvious candidate to regress in 2015-16 and regress they have as their 68 points is near the bottom of the league. Of course, at the bottom of the league w/ only 61 points is Toronto, but the Leafs have shown some signs of life lately by winning four of their previous six games. Make it five of seven after tonight!

Coming into this season, we knew the Leafs were still in the midst of a long rebuilding process. For years, a foolish approach to the game could only get them to the fringes of playoff contention and then the bottom dropped out two seasons ago.  But for a team that the analytics most certainly 'hated' for years, there have actually been some slight improvements this year. One is that they are giving up far less shots per game and recently (L5 games) that number is down to a more than respectable 27.0.  They have outshot opponents, on a per game average, 32.0 to 29.6 at home this season (31-21 Sat vs. Buffalo).  When it comes to Corsi and Fenwick ratings, they are actually 3rd and 8th respectively, which is the highest they've been in years!

Calgary is actually 5-1-2 their last eight games, including a road win at Montreal by a score of 4-1 yday. But the odds are against them coming up victorious in B2B games.  At no point during this season have they won on the road in consecutive nights! In fact, one would have to go all the way back to December to find the ONLY time the Flames have won two in a row on the road.  Playing in the second game of a back to back, their record is just 3-7 SU this season.  They are just 11-23 on the road overall and 3-12 their last 15 visits to Toronto. The Leafs goaltending situation certainly seems better here w/ Jonathan Bernier, whose career marks vs. Calgary are among his best against any opponent in the league (1.60 GAA). Bernier has allowed one goal or less in three of his past four starts (.952 save percentage). 10* Toronto

9* Over Flyers/Islanders (7:35 ET):  All of a sudden, the Islanders are no longer that safe when it comes to making the postseason as red-hot Pittsburgh has passed them in the Metro, leaving the contingent from Brooklyn in a precarious fourth place right now. They'd still be the first of two Wild Cards mind you, but they are just five points clear of tonight's opponent, who did the Isles no favors w/ a 4-1 loss to the Penguins Saturday afternoon.  A bounce back seems pretty likely for the home team (NY) tonight, but I'm a little concerned about them having just given up nine goals on a winless three-game road trip. Philadelphia had just scored 24 goals over a six-game stretch prior to their last game and I think an Over is the most likely outcome here.

The East has one elite team (Washington) and whomever the Caps end up playing in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs will be a mediocre (at best) draw as just seven teams in the Conference have a positive goal differential. The other six (besides Washington), a group that includes the Islanders, are all bunched up and will make for three exciting first round series.  Now, the Isles clearly aren't thinking about any of that right now after being outscored 9-3 by Pittsburgh, Nashville and Dallas the L3 games.  They got shutout by the Stars on Saturday, just the third time all season that they were blanked on the scoreboard.  But the good news for tonight is that they have bounced back well from the previous two shutout defeats, scoring five goals their next time out both times. 

If the Flyers are to catch a team for one of the Wild Card spots, it's more likely to be the Red Wings over in the Atlantic.  As I've already mentioned the Flyers had been on fire recently, but that was before running into Pittsburgh and finishing w/ a season low 17 shots on goal.  Still, they too should bounce back offensively in this one as the Over is 13-7 for them this season when on the road and the total is 5.0.  The loss of Jaroslav Halak has clearly hurt the Isles - literally and figuratively - between the pipes.  Part of New York's problem recently is that they haven't been on the power play enough (just eight times in the L7 games). Hopefully, they can get on the man advantage a few times here b/c Philly is just 22nd in penalty killing. 9* Over Flyers/Islanders

8* George Washington (7:00 ET):  In case you haven't picked up on it in previous analysis, I feel there's a definite link between Monmouth's bench shenanigans and them being overvalued at times by the oddsmakers. For a team out of the MAAC, they sure do seem to have a high profile.  Now going against them in their first round NIT game proved to not be profitable as they beat Bucknell 90-80. That improved their YTD against the spread record to 21-12, which somewhat contradicts my earlier statement re: them being overvalued. But overvalued is what I feel the Hawks are again Monday as they step up in class with a visit from George Washington, a team that I would have favored against them on a neutral court. Even with the home court edge, I do not believe Monmouth should be favored by this many.  Take the points.

Now Monmouth's first round NIT game was a bit closer than the final score indicated as it was tied 52-52 in the second half before the Hawks hot second-half shooting eventually overwhelmed their opponent. For the game, they finished at 11 of 27 from behind the arc and scored 54 points in the second half alone. I really thought that Bucknell plus the points was the way to go in that contest as a high ticket count on Monmouth, plus the added disappointment of a NCAA 'snub', had me thinking they were ripe to be upset. Remember that this team was a dog in the MAAC Tourney Final against Iona. Alas, I was incorrect, but a second shot w/ a better opponent taking points still has me confident. 

In each of its last four games, George Washington has failed to meet the oddsmakers expectations. In Wednesday's 82-80 win over Hofstra, the Colonials needed a last-second shot just to escape, though it should be pointed out that they led by 11 at halftime.  Tied for the second-most wins in a single season in program history, GW was ousted by a St. Joe's team that just gave Oregon a great game in the NCAA Tourney and generally played much stiffer competition in the Atlantic 10 than Monmouth did in the MAAC.  Remember that Monmouth has dropped three games this year - outright - to teams outside of Vegas' top 200.  8* George Washington

8* St. Joseph's (9:40 ET):  In the interest of full disclosure, I was going to take Cincinnati to upset Oregon in this spot. I had the Bearcats Friday night against St. Joe's and were it not for a waved off, game-tying dunk, I could have had the opportunity to take them here against the Ducks. But alas, it is St. Joe's in this spot. I was critical of the Hawks in my analysis for their first round matchup w/ UC, but the bottom line is the overwhelming support Oregon is getting here has me willing to take an inflated number.  After all, St. Joe's is a money-making 9-2 ATS as an underdog this season after winning outright each of their last three games. Oregon is clearly overvalued after beating up on a patsy in their first round game.  Take the points here.

The one clear benefit to being a #1 seed is that you in essence get a first round bye. No 1-seed has ever lost in the Round of 64 and that trend figures to continue as their 16th seeded counterparts - by definition - are the worst teams in the field and many of them are teams that didn't even win their conference in the regular season. Oregon drew such a first round opponent, that being Holy Cross, perhaps one of the most unlikely teams in the field as the Crusaders were actually the 8-seed in the Patriot League and pulled four straight upsets just to get to Friday (three in conference tourney, then one over Southern on Wednesday).  So, what I'm saying is that little can be derived from the Ducks' 91-52 win their last time out. 

Both of these teams flew Over the number in their respective first round games.  St. Joe's scored 78 points on only 62 possessions against a hard-nosed Cincy team after topping 80 in all three Atlantic 10 Tourney Games.  Defensively, Oregon will present many problems for them.  But this number is clearly inflated as my own power rankings suggest the top seed should be just a slight favorite here. While being a 1-seed worked out well for them Friday, here it works against them as they are a 1-seed in "name only" as the vast majority of ranking systems have them outside the top 20. I think the underdog matches up well here and will keep this game close throughout.  8* St. Joseph's

10* Maryland (7:10 ET):  As with any team that pulls a major upset in this event, I "tip my cap," but when it comes to Hawaii there was an incredible confluence of events that took place, setting up their 77-66 upset (were +6) of Cal on Friday.  First off, the opponent was w/o their leading scorer PG Tyrone Wallace. Secondly, the Bears had to dismiss an assistant coach during the weak amidst scandal.  Third, on the morning of the game, another Cal starter (Jabari Bird) experienced back spasms and wound up not playing either.  So all the elements an underdog would like (and then some!) were definitely present for the Rainbow Warriors, who additionally shot 51.9% from the field (Cal was only 41.1 percent, including 3 of 19 from 3-pt range). Up next for Hawaii is Maryland and this will be a far tougher task.  I'm laying the points.

Maryland's 79-74 opening round win over South Dakota State ended up being a lot closer than it should have as the Terps led by as many as 18 late in the second half before sloppy play allowed the Jackrabbits in the "back door."  It was a "tale of two halves" as in the first they held SDSU to only 22 points on 26.5% shooting, but in the second they gave up an astounding 52 points.  I anticipate a more complete game this time around. Remember that Mark Turgeon's team was once (as in "last month") 22-3 straight up and ranked as high as #2 in the human polls. They clearly came into this Tournament underseeded and with an upset taking place in their bracket, they now have a pretty clear path to the Sweet 16 from where I sit.

All five Maryland starters average double figures in points per game and simply put this is a much taller order for underdog Hawaii than undermanned Cal was.  The Warriors have performed exceptionally well on the mainland this season (11-2 straight up!), but you have to wonder if they are feeling a bit road weary considering they've been "off the Island" since March 1st.  Looking at the line here and comparing to what we saw in both teams' first round matchups, it becomes clear that there's some value here on the Terps. Furthermore, no favorite seems to be getting LESS respect from bettors currently and that's a good sign as when too many people feel an "upset" is going to take place (like Wich St yday - yes, I know, technically a favorite), it often does not.  10* Maryland

8* Syracuse (6:10 ET):  Middle Tennessee is coming off one of the great upsets in Tournament history as they became just the eighth 15-seed to win a game in this event.  Of the octet, it can be argued that the Blue Raiders slayed the biggest giant, that being a Michigan State team that many (myself included) would make it to the Final Four and possibly win a National Championship.  Just to put over how improbable Friday's result was, MTSU scored 90 points (their 2nd most in a game all season) against the best defensive team they have faced and they did so at a stunning rate (1.32 pts per possession!) due to shooting a preposterous 57.9 percent (11 for 19) from three-point range.  Ladies & gentlemen, this is an offense that ranked seventh in efficiency - in Conference USA - during the regular season! They fall hard in Round 2. Lay the points here.

Not only will the Blue Raiders have to contend with plain old regression here, but they also have to deal w/ Jim Boeheim's trademark zone defense, which can make that regression be even more pronounced.  Syracuse just held its first round opponent - Dayton - to only 6 of 22 shooting from behind the arc and that's after holding ACC opponents to only 28.9% during the regular season. They will force Middle Tennessee into taking plenty of long-range shots here and after Friday's remarkable performance, it is highly unlikely that the Blue Raiders will make many of them. Something else to keep an eye on is that MTSU only turned the ball over 10 times vs. Michigan State while committing just 13 fouls.  I just can't see a repeat in either department here. 

After dropping three straight, all by five points or less, the Orange looked simply fantastic in squeezing out a 70-51 win over Dayton on Friday.  The ACC is looking very strong in this tournament w/ a 10-1 SU record & could put as many as six teams into the Sweet 16!  That speaks to the level of competition that Syracuse has faced throughout the year and simply put - on paper - this will be the weakest foe on the schedule (w/ the exception of BC) since their conference slate began. Remember that only one 15 seed - Florida Gulf Coast - has ever made it to the Sweet 16.  8* Syracuse

10* New Jersey (5:05 ET):  This is the second game of a home and home as Columbus took Saturday's game by a score of 6-3, snapping a three-game losing streak while at the same time doubling their scoring output from the trifecta of losses. To me, it wasn't too big of a shocker to see the Devils lose in that spot as they were coming off a big surprise in their own right, a 7-4 win here at home over Minnesota two nights earlier.  The amount of goals that New Jersey has allowed its last three games (17!) is pretty stunning, but that's not enough to keep me from taking them in this rematch Sunday afternoon on home ice.

The Blue Jackets remain mired in last place (66 points) and rarely do they win B2B games. Consecutive victories has happened just once for this team over the last month and while that involved a win over New Jersey (6-1), it was was the first, not second, leg of the win streak. The fact is that Columbus goaltending is a greater concern than that of their opponent's here as the Jackets rank 29th in the league in goals allowed (3.1 per game).  With Sergei Bobrovsky starting yday, more than likely it will be Joonas Korpisalo between the pipes today and he is simply not as effective.  The offense, which has shown up in each of their three victories in March has disappeared in the defeats, totaling just three goals in four games (two shutouts). The change in venue from Saturday also plays a significant role as Columbus is just 13-21 SU on the road this season, including three straight losses.

As for New Jersey, I simply do not understand why they have had so much trouble with Columbus through the years. Saturday marked their sixth straight loss to them and fourth this season.  The continued absence of Cory Schneider between the pipes is a problem, but I expect "a little pride" to kick in here for the Devils after being beaten up yday. They did rally from an early 3-0 hole to tie the game up, but then a disastrous third period spelled the end for them.  This is a good price range to go against a bad team playing on the road.  10* New Jersey

10* Dallas (4:05 ET):  This is almost "do or die" for the Mavericks, who have now dropped seven of eight to fall into eighth place in the Western Conference and they're just one game clear of ninth place Utah. They got a big break w/ the Jazz losing last night in Chicago, but Utah has a very winnable game tonight in Milwaukee. Therefore, at home, I feel that Dallas *HAS* to come through. Now that doesn't mean they necessarily *WILL*, mind you, but I feel the probability is high plus the value is there w/ a visit from Portland. Oddsmakers obviously take note of losing streaks, but this line is simply too low as my own power rankings have these teams rated evenly, meaning the home team should be about a three-point favorite!

Portland has been trending in the opposite direction of Dallas for much of the second half, but not lately. I took them on Friday when they held on for a 117-112 win in New Orleans (who lost Anthony Davis to injury), but before that the team had actually dropped six of eight.  The Blazers did enjoy an outstanding February, but they key to that run was they played a lot of home games, at one point six in a row. By comparison, March has had them on the road a lot more.  There's a real strong home vs. road dichotomy going on here w/ Portland 21-12 SU at home (+5.4 PPG) but only 15-22 SU on the road (-3.6 PPG). Their ATS record is positive in both situation, but that clearly reflects that they're usually taking points when away from home, something that is not the case today.

Part of the reason I called for Portland to put an end to a two-game losing streak Friday night was a drop in class. They were going from B2B road games vs. the Thunder and Spurs to playing at the lowly Pelicans. Here, Dallas just played Cleveland and Golden State. While Portland for them may not be as steep a drop in class as the Pelicans were for the Blazers, the theory remains the same nevertheless.  The Mavs actually were down only three in the fourth quarter Friday night vs. Golden State, but simply could not keep pace (gave up 130 points). But at least they are 10-5 ATS when off a double digit loss this season. Also, Portland is 7-31 SU its last 38 trips to Dallas. 10* Dallas

9* Over Ducks/Jets (3:05 ET): It's a matinee in Manitoba on Sunday as Winnipeg (last in the Central) hosts Anaheim (second in Pacific). It's a little difficult to fathom now, but these two actually faced off in the first round of LY's Stanley Cup Playoffs and many (myself included) were high on a potential Jets upset there. But it never came to fruition and here we are now with a lopsided money line that favors the road team. The price is a bit too steep for my tastes, but with one team (Ducks) coming off a shutout win and the other off a shut out loss, I figure scoring may be a bit more balanced in this one & thus I like the Over. 

Anaheim blanked Boston Friday night, 4-0. It was the second time in the last three games they scored at least four and really that statement drastically undersells what they did to New Jersey earlier in the week (won 7-1). After spending much of this season toiling near the bottom of the league in goals per game, the Ducks offense has spiked rather dramatically in the second half. While ranking 22nd in gpg doesn't sound all that impressive, considering where the club once was, it is to me.  The offense remains inconsistent, but considering this is a Jets team that has given up four goals in B2B games, they should have another strong showing here. Winnipeg goaltenders have a collective .900 save percentage, second lowest in the league. 

  Now while on paper you'd figure the Ducks likely have to do the "heavy lifting" (i.e. score the bulk of the goals), I do feel Winnipeg has a shot here. They did score five times in a win at Vancouver earlier in the week. When they do win, they typically do so by scoring a lot (what a revelation!). Anaheim's goalies are tough to crack and the Jets have scored only one total goal the last two games. But the home side here does average 30.5 shots per game (at home) and is probably due for a few tonight.  The Over is 6-3 this season in Jets' home games when the O/U line is 5.0.  Both John Gibson & Frederik Andersen (Anaheim goalies) see their respective save percentages dip on the road.  Simply put, the Over is a better value than the favorite in this one.  9* Over Ducks/Jets

10* Iowa (12:10 ET):  The seventh-seeded Hawkeyes really let me down on Friday, blowing an early lead and needing OT just to pull off a SU win over Temple (won on putback at the buzzer). I think that as far as their critics are concerned, the blown lead only further "stokes the fire" as they did falter badly down the stretch, losing six of eight while going a money-burning 1-7 ATS. But as someone who does not qualify as an Iowa critic, I really like them plus the points here (rare that they are a dog!) against a Villanova team that drew a weak first round opponent (UNC Asheville) and will likely be tight due to their own issue, which is that they never seem to make it to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Take the points.

Over the last eight games, Iowa has been a dog only once. I took them and they didn't just cover for me (were just +1.5), but won outright at Michigan.  I realize that lately they've lost straight up more than not, but note their biggest margin of defeat during this stretch was just eight points.  Four times they've lost by four points or less.  I'll rehash what I said in my analysis for the Temple game: this team was once ranked #3 in the entire country. They come into the Tourney drastically undervalued.  Note that they got away w/ shooting only 34.8% from the field against Temple. But they also turned the ball over just three times in an overtime game, highlighting a season-long strength (taking care of the basketball) that I had brought up in my previous analysis as well. I truly believe that this team is due to rediscover its hot shooting from the start of the season (and start of the Temple game, for that matter!).

Iowa came out hot from behind the arc Thursday, making six of its first nine three-pointers. They are at 37.7% for the year in that department. If Villanova has a weakness defensively, it's that they allow a lot of three-point shots (37.3% of all opponents' attempts are from behind the arc). Also, the Wildcats can be had on the glass, which is great news for an Iowa team that typically is strong when it comes to offensive rebounding. There were a ton of upsets on Friday (duh!) and many top seeds that did survive, struggled. Nova didn't fall into either category obviously, but off the 30-point win they look overvalued to me in this spot as it is unlikely they will duplicate their 57.9% shooting from the last game. Again, the program's history of faltering in this round is well-known and will be discussed ad nauseam leading up to tip-off. I can see that having an adverse effect on the players, none of whom have ever made it to the second weekend.  The Hawkeyes (77.9 PPG) will score enough to stay close throughout and possibly threaten to take the game outright. 10* Iowa

9* Over 2.5 Rounds Magny vs. Lombard (12:05 AM ET):  This is the semi-main of the card and an interesting bout in the welterweight division (170 lbs) as Hector Lombard makes his return from a 14-month sabbatical thanks to a suspension for doping. He's 38 and it's absolutely legit to question if "rust" will be a factor here. He goes up against the red hot Neil Magny, a winner in nine of his past ten fights. The lone loss came when he was tapped by the underrated Damian Maia.  His last two wins have been by decision, however, and with Lombard coming off the long absence I anticipate we will have more of a plodding fight here. Look for this one to go to the cards. Take the Over.

In handicapping this fight, it is absolutely "fair" to question how much of Lombard's past success was due to performance enhancing drugs.  He is known for being a "fast starter," but coming off such a long layoff, I do not expect that to be the case here. His strength was being a quick striker, but 14 months between fights can change that.  Before the suspension, four of Lombard's last six fights had gone the distance. Magny likes to take advantage via the clinch, but Lombard is very good at "playing defense" in that position.

When looking for a fight than can possibly go the distance, it's best to check to see if each fighter's individual strengths and weaknesses are cancelled out by the opponent. That certainly appears to be the case here. Magny is not a particularly great striker and thus is going to try his best to get this fight up against the cage or on the ground.  But that's going to be difficult due to Lombard's excellent defensive game.  Magny likely wins here because he's simply been more active over the last year, but he'll have to rely on the judges to give him the decision.  9* Over 2.5 Rounds Magny vs. Lombard

6* Puck Line Vancouver (10:05 ET):  Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Canucks +1.5 goals. Now, I did just go against them last night and they responded 'accordingly' by dropping the game 2-0 in Edmonton. But a few factors have changed. One is that they now have dropped three straight games. I realize that in yday's analysis I noted the fact that Vancouver now essentially being "out of it" (ie playoff contention) would likely doom them out in Alberta. But now they return home where they admittedly have struggled more than one would like to see, but I did have them in this role (+1.5) last Saturday when they upset Nashville 'outright' (won 4-2). They are 6-1 SU their last seven home games vs. the Blues.  Take the +1.5.

Earlier this week, St. Louis was being discussed as a team that could surpass both Chicago and Dallas for the Central Division lead. But two losses and 13 goals allowed later, that discussion has changed dramatically, especially since those two losses came at Calgary and Edmonton, the two worst teams the Western Conference has to offer.  You can poke a real hole in the Blues resume in the sense that they only have a goal differential of +6 for the year. As a result, I'll certainly be likely looking to fade them in their first round series, whether it be against the Stars and Blackhawks.  Just for the sake of reference that +6 goal differential is the same as Minnesota's and the Wild are currently on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs w/ 16 less points than the Blues.

The Canucks have suffered the second most OT/shootout losses in the entire league this year (trailing only Nashville). While that's highly disappointing for them, all we are looking for here is to be tied at the end of regulation. More than one-fifth of their total games have gone into overtime this season.  Again, the Blues have allowed a ton of goals on the current road trip (17 in the L3 games).  Yes, Brian Elliott likely returns here, but Vancouver had 40 shots on goal last night (despite being shutout) and actually has a winning record when playing in the second game of a back to back.  Last night was the first time they had been shutout in 2016. 6* Puck Line Vancouver (+1.5)

10* Gonzaga (8:40 ET):  There is no running from the Pac 12's awful record so far in this year's NCAA Tournament (2-5 in first round), so I am not surprised at all to see the "Runnin' Utes" in the pick 'em range against 11-seed Gonzaga.  Of the teams seeded three or higher, Utah was w/o question the weakest and yes I'm taking into account teams that have already lost. Meanwhile, Gonzaga deserved far better than an 11-seed, which was a byproduct of them being in the rare position of having to win the WCC Tournament just to get into the Big Dance.  They looked far more impressive to me in dispatching of a Seton Hall team that had just won the Big East Tournament than Utah did in its first round win over Fresno State. Therefore, I'm backing the 'Zags here.

Maybe I'm a bit biased because I took Gonzaga in Round One (where they were actually favored despite being the lower seed). But there can be no denying how good Mark Few's team looked in the 68-52 win and cover. Again, that Seton Hall team had just beaten Xavier and Villanova in B2B days last weekend.   They held Pirates' leading scorer Isaiah Whitehead to 4 for 24 shooting overall (0 for 10 from three-point range) and while Seton Hall appeared to be ill-prepared to play at elevation and Denver was a huge edge for them (won't be here), I still would like to point out that I have the 'Zags rated as the better team here.  They won have won six straight, four of those coming by double digits.

Much will be made about the matchup of big men here - Utah's Jakob Poeltl and Gonzaga's Domantas Sabonis - but don't discount the impact of Gonzaga's Kyle Wiltjer, who is his team's leading scorer at 20.5 points per game. Wiltjer comes off a subpar effort vs. Seton Hall; he was 5 of 14 from the field for only 13 pts, so I look for a bounce back game here.  The majority of Utah's recent wins were close while their one loss in the last 10 games came by 31. They drew a very weak 1st round opponent in Fresno State, an automatic qualifier that was not its conference's regular season champ.  Yes, you have to consider the respective conferences (Pac 12 vs. WAC), but Gonzaga has the better YTD per game point differential and right now the Pac 12 isn't looking so hot. 10* Gonzaga

10* San Antonio (8:35 ET):  Well, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. That's the tact I'm taking here w/ the Warriors, who "got me" by pulling away late in Dallas last night for a 130-112 win and cover (were -9). I would like to point out it was a three-point game in the fourth quarter.  But Steph Curry and Klay Thompson combined for 70 points w/ the latter going a ridiculous 10 of 15 from three-point range.  It is now looking very likely that the Warriors will break the '96 Bulls single-season record of 72 wins. But if there's one game you'd "bank" on them losing, it would be this one, against the fellow historically-dominant Spurs, who by the way have not dropped a single home game all year. This being the second of a back to back does Golden State no favors here. Lay the points. 

Not only is San Antonio rested, but they have revenge and certainly the coaching staff and players remember what happened the first time they played Golden State. It was a 30-point loss, easily their worst setback of the season. Of course, setbacks have been few and far between for the Spurs as they only have 10 of them, meaning they could still tie the '96 Bulls as well (something that never gets ANY press). This team is 20-3 SU since losing to the Warriors and while Golden State has gotten all the accolades this year, I still have San Antonio rated higher as they do own a better YTD point differential (+12.3 to +11.5) due to what is the league's best defense - by a wide margin - allowing just 92.5 points per game.  Oh, by the way, the Spurs have won 43 straight at home and are outscoring foes by 15.3 PPG here this season!

Much will be made of the fact that the Warriors are a perfect 2 for 2 - straight up and against the spread - as underdogs this season. But one of those games was w/o Curry against overrated Houston. Of course, the other was the "MLK Day Massacre" in Cleveland (I took them there and called for the outright win), but this is clearly the one situation where they do deserve to be in the underdog role. If I were a Warriors' fan, I'd be worried that the team "used up" too much of its hot shooting last night when they went 22 for 38 from three-point range, tying the franchise mark for most made three-pointers in a game. The Spurs defense and home court advantage carry them to victory here.  10* San Antonio

10* Ottawa (7:05 ET):  It took awhile for a line to be posted for this matchup as not only did the Senators play last night (lost), but there was also some debate as to whom would be between the pipes for Montreal. It turns out that the answer to that debate is Ben Scrivens, who is coming off a season-high 41 saves in his team's 3-2 overtime win over Buffalo Friday night.  Buffalo is who Ottawa lost to last night, 3-1 (I had the Under!), as their slim playoff hopes got even slimmer. While it's the Sens playing the second game of a back to back, and off a loss to the same team the Habs just beat, I feel that they are the right side here as the Canadiens remain overvalued from the start of the season.

Any time you lose to a team like the Sabres, it pretty much drives home the fact that you're not very good.  Scoring only one goal had to be a major disappointment for Ottawa last night as they had 33 shots on goal and were off B2B wins.  Those victories came in spite of low shot totals, but it's also important to note that both came at home as well where the team is simply much better.  While only 14-19-3 on the road, they are a more than respectable 19-12-5 on home ice this season and they haven't gotten to welcome in Montreal since all the way back in October. It's important to remember that the Senators are 7th in the league in goals per game and they have a winning record this year when coming off a game where they scored one goal or less.

Sens goaltender Craig Anderson was chased the last time these division rivals met (back in December), but it should be pointed out that he was under siege the entire time as Montreal put a franchise record 27 shots on net in the first period. That should not happen again. Also, can Ottawa finally score on the power play? They are now 0 for 21 the last eight games.  Montreal has been on the descent ever since Carey Price got hurt, which was back in late November, and as a result they have dropped from 1st to 20th in goals allowed. Scrivens will likely not come close to repeating his strong showing vs the Sabres. The Habs have lost 32 of their last 47 games overall and rarely record B2B wins. 10* Ottawa