10* San Diego (8:40 ET): The Dodgers have certainly had the Padres’ number as going back to last season, they’ve beaten their NL West rivals 10 straight times. It was 6-1 on Friday with both Mookie Betts and Max Muncy homering for the road team. The Dodgers are, not surprisingly, my #1 team in the power rankings as they have a MLB-best +37 run differential. However, I expect their win streak over the Padres to come to an end Saturday night as they’re turning to Tyler Anderson in what is in essence, a spot start. 

Anderson would be in most teams’ rotations, but here in LA, that’s just not needed due to the incredible depth in the rotation. Anderson was signed in the offseason, knowing he wouldn’t be a rotation regular, but he’s getting the chance here because Andrew Heaney (also an offseason signee) is hurt. It’s not like Anderson has had the greatest career; he has a 4.59 ERA in 113 starts and last season (with Pittsburgh & Seattle) was right in line as he went 7-11 with a 4.53 ERA (in 31 starts). 

San Diego will counter with its Opening Day starter, Yu Darvish, who makes his fourth start of 2022. Two of the three have gone very well. Darvish no-hit Arizona for six innings on Opening Day, then last time out he held Atlanta to one run on four hits (6 ⅓ IP). In between, there was a disastrous outing vs. the Giants, but I view that as an aberration (cold & windy night). Despite last night’s loss, the Padres are a top five team in the National League and more than capable of beating the Dodgers on any given night. In eight home games, they’ve held the opposition to 2.6 rpg and a .201 batting average. 10* San Diego

8* 1st Half Brooklyn (7:30 ET): First off, note that this is a first half play only where I’m backing the Nets. The Nets are the fourth team this postseason to return home down 0-2 in the series. Of the previous three, only Atlanta (last night) was able to emerge victorious. But two of the three (Atlanta & Toronto) were leading their games at halftime. What sets Brooklyn apart from the previous three teams in this spot is that they are favored to win. The first two games of this series have been close with Game 1 decided on a buzzer-beater and Game 2 seeing the Nets up 10 at the half. This team is too good to fall down 0-3 to the Celtics. I expect them to be leading comfortably at the halftime break.

After losing Game 1 at the buzzer, the Nets led by as many as 17 points in Game 2. That was late in the first half. They were still up seven in the fourth quarter before wilting down the stretch and getting outscored 16-2 over a seven-minute stretch. Boston did not take its first lead until there were less than eight minutes left in the game. I can’t see Kevin Durant having a third straight sub-standard game. He’s averaging 25 PPG, but on 13 of 41 from the field and he’s made only two three-pointers. The Celtics have done an excellent job defending Durant, but eventually a player that great is going to have a great game. It happens here.

Boston also probably won’t shoot 52% from the field again like it did in Game 2. Even with Durant’s struggles, Brooklyn is averaging 114.5 points in the series and shooting north of 50 percent. Kyrie Irving, after an incredible Game 1 performance with 39 points, cooled off dramatically in Game 2, scoring only 10 and didn’t have a made three. He, like Durant, will have a better effort tonight and I expect the same from the Nets’ role players as well as this game is at home. It would be shocking to me if the home team didn’t get off to another fast start in this game. 8* 1st Half Brooklyn

10* Over Mavs/Jazz (4:30 ET): With the potential for Luka Doncic’s return on Saturday, I’m surprised this total isn’t higher. Both Games 2 and 3 went Over the total, the latter by a significant margin (36.5 points!) Now Utah shot 56.5% in Game 3 (and still lost!), a clip we probably can’t expect them to match this afternoon. But I do expect the host Jazz to be more efficient from three-point range where they were just 9 of 28 on Thursday. This is a team that averages 15 made threes per game at home where they average 116.8 PPG. Not only is Utah the league’s third highest scoring home team, don’t forget they finished the regular season tied for the league lead (with Atlanta) in offensive efficiency.

I had Dallas plus the points in Game 3 and the cover was never really in doubt as they raced out to a 68-51 halftime lead. Once again, Jalen Brunson led the way, this time with 31 points. That followed a career-high 41 points in Game 2. He’s averaging 32 PPG for the series, clearly filling the void left by Doncic’s absence. While I don’t think the Mavs will score 126 again, even if Doncic returns, hitting their season average of 108.1 PPG is certainly realistic and probably all that we need. The Mavs are 6-2 Over their last 8 games.

Utah is on a 16-5 Over run in playoff action the last three seasons, including 12-3 in the first round. They are 3-0 to the Over when trailing in a series. Today is certainly shaping up to be a “must-win” for the Jazz as a loss means they head back to Dallas down three games to one. Things were looking up when they temporarily “stole” home court advantage by winning Game 1, but B2B outright losses have changed things in a hurry. Jazz home games have averaged 224.2 points this season. So, once again, I say this number looks low. Both teams had a 40-point quarter on Thursday. 10* Over Mavs/Jazz

9* Chi White Sox (4:05 ET): I’m fully aware of the fact that the White Sox are on a five-game losing streak and have gone eight consecutive ballgames without scoring more than three runs. But the Twins aren’t scoring either as they’ve failed to top three runs in five of their last six games and scored just three total in the last three. It was a 2-1 final on Friday with the Twins taking the series opener because of two White Sox throwing errors on the same play (in the eighth inning). The road team actually had more hits and total bases. I think they bounce back and end the losing skid on Saturday. A good price on the AL Central favorites.

Dylan Bundy is admittedly off to a good start for Minnesota as he’s won both starts by posting a 0.87 ERA and 0.678 WHIP. First he held Seattle to just one hit over five scoreless innings. Then he limited Boston to one run and five hits in 5 ⅓ IP. But can Bundy keep that up? I think not. This is a pitcher who had only six quality starts all of 2021 and finished with a 6.09 ERA. He figures to not get a lot of run support either. The Twins had scored only one run across 25 innings before busting out for two in the eighth last night.

As I said earlier, the White Sox entered 2022 as the favorites to win the AL Central pennant. Minnesota has not won three in a row this season. Chicago will counter Bundy with Vince Velasquez, who is in his first season with the club. Velasquez has pitched 8 ⅔ innings so far and given up just four earned runs and seven hits. His bullpen has a lower ERA and WHIP compared to its Minnesota counterparts. Velasquez has the edge of having faced Minnesota only one time and it was an inning of relief back in 2015. 9* Chi White Sox

10* Torino (9:00 AM ET): Torino has won only once in their last 11 matches, but they were very close to pulling the upset last week in what ended up a 1-1 draw with Lazio. The Granata conceded the equalizer late, two minutes into stoppage time in fact, costing them two critical points as they look to finish in the top half of the table. That result still worked for me as I bet Torino on the goal line (+1). That result came on the heels of another draw against one of the top sides in Serie A, the top team in fact, 0-0 vs. AC Milan. I know it’s been a difficult stretch for this mid-table side, but they are due to collect all three points this week. 

Spezia was promoted to the top flight before last season and is all but assured of a third consecutive season in Serie A as they are 11 points clear of the drop zone, even after last week’s 3-1 loss to Inter Milan. But this side still has the fourth worst goal differential in the league (-24) and really struggles on the road where they have lost 10 of 17 while averaging fewer than one goal per match. Defensively, Spezia has its flaws as well. They are last in shots allowed and concede 1.74 xG (expected goals) per match. 

Torino is underrated as they are ninth in the league in xPts (expected points) and eighth in xGD (expected goal difference). While six points behind Sassuolo and eight behind Hellas Verona, almost all metrics suggest Torino is on par with the two sides they are chasing for a top half finish. Spezia did win the reverse fixture back in November, 1-0, but Torino had the edge in possession and shots on target. Their ability to press should treat them well on Saturday. 10* Torino

10* Under Suns/Pelicans (9:30 ET): Both of last year’s NBA Finalists (Bucks & Suns) have had a trying 48 hours, not only losing Game 2 of their respective series, but also losing a key player in the process. For Phoenix, that key player is Devin Booker, who has a “Grade 1” hamstring injury. Booker leads his team with 26.8 points per game, so to say his injury is significant is no understatement. Now the Suns may very well have enough talent on hand to still get by the 8th seeded Pelicans, but expect Game 3 of this series to be low-scoring, along the lines of Game 1. Take the Under here. 

Game 2 was a wild affair with New Orleans coming from behind to win 125-114 as 9.5-point underdogs. Now Phoenix was behind, by three points, when Booker left the game. But considering Booker poured in 31 points himself in the first half, then the Suns could only manage 53 as a team in the entire second half, his absence was absolutely felt. Honestly, the bigger issue for the top seed may have been their transition defense. "That was probably, for us, the worst we have ever looked in transition since I have been here," coach Monty Williams said. "For that to happen in a playoff game was a bit unsettling for everybody. 

Now I do not expect New Orleans to shoot 54.8% from the field again like they did in Game 2. They were also 17 of 30 from three-point range, an absurd 56.7%. There’s no way they are matching those numbers tonight, even though the game is at home. Brandon Ingram was 13 of 21 shooting overall. He was perfect on threes and finished with 37-11-9. Can’t see him replicating that. Then you have the fact the Suns can’t possibly replace Booker’s production as he hit seven threes in the first half alone Wednesday. The Suns are 8-1 Under following a double digit loss this season. 10* Under Suns/Pelicans

9* Under Bucks/Bulls (8:30 ET): This is my first foray into this series, which has taken a bit of a dramatic turn in the last 48 hours. Of all the first round series in the Eastern Conference, this was the one where projecting a winner seemed to be the most obvious (and that was reaffirmed by the odds), however, not only did Milwaukee lose Game 2 at home Weds night (114-110 as a 10-point favorite), but they are now going to be without Khris Middleton for at least two weeks, which is a huge loss. Both games in Milwaukee did stay Under and now things move to Chicago. I think the Under is likely to hit again. 

Middleton is the Bucks’ second leading scorer this season (20.1 PPG), obviously trailing only Giannis Antetokounmpo. He had averaged just 14.5 points in the first two games of this series, but is obviously going to be missed moving forward. Middleton wasn’t the only Bucks player to leave Game 2 with an injury; Bobby Portis had to exit with an eye injury, though it’s expected he will play tonight. So far, the Bucks have averaged just 101.5 PPG in this series (on 43.1% shooting), well below their regular season average. It doesn’t help that they are only shooting 65% from the free throw line. 

Chicago’s “big three” of DeRozan, Vucevic and LaVine combined to shoot 21 of 71 (29.6%) in Game 1, but then rebounded to 33 of 62 (53.2%) in Game 2, led by DeRozan’s 41 points. Expect them to finish somewhere “in the middle” for Game 3. I can’t see the Bulls scoring 63 points in the first half again, like they did Wednesday. Nor do I see them shooting 48% from three-point range again. All season long, Bulls’ division games have been lower scoring than non-division games, averaging just 208 PPG. The Under is 14-4 in division games. Before the Game 2 win, they’d faced Milwaukee five times (lost all five) and averaged just 98.4 PPG. 9* Under Bucks/Bulls

8* Miami (7:10 ET): The Marlins avoided getting swept yesterday by beating St. Louis 5-0. Like a lot of teams around MLB right now, they are struggling to hit (just .232 on the year), but they’ve been doing a good job at run suppression, limiting opponents to a .216 average. They allowed only seven runs in three games vs. the Cardinals and have permitted three runs or less in five of the last six games. Now Friday starter Trevor Rogers has struggled to open the year, but he’s a lefty and Atlanta is hitting just .201 vs. southpaws so far this year. 

The Braves had Thursday off after dropping two of three out in Los Angeles. It’s been a bit of a rocky start for last year’s World Series Champs as they are 6-8 overall with a -14 run differential. That RD is tied for fifth worst in all of MLB with only Cincinnati, Washington, Arizona and Baltimore having been beaten up worse. The Braves have been held to three runs or less nine times already and could only manage a split when they faced the Reds at home to start the year. They scored three runs or fewer in three of the four games.

On paper, it looks as if Atlanta has the edge in tonight’s starting pitching matchup. I mentioned earlier that Rogers has struggled for Miami, but that’s a small sample size and last time out was the worst start of his career. I expect him to bounce back in this spot. He’s yet to allow a home run and was more effective in his first start. The Braves’ Kyle Wright has been impressive in both starts, but has never beaten the Marlins and has a 6.92 ERA in the three starts. This has all the makings of the road team coming in and stealing the series opener. 8* Miami

8* Boston (7:10 ET): Tampa Bay will certainly be out for revenge from last year’s ALDS (lost three games to one), but I like the Red Sox in this one, even though they come in having dropped three of four. Boston has scored only eight runs in those four games, but they shouldn’t need many to get the win tonight as Michael Wacha toes the rubber for them in this series opener. Through two starts, Wacha has been excellent, posting a 0.96 ERA and 0.857 WHIP. The only thing he’s missing is a victory and I think that changes after tonight. 

Tampa Bay has won three of four, including a rain-shortened game at Wrigley Field on Wednesday. That concluded a six-game swing through the Windy City where the Rays ended up going 3-3, losing two of three to the White Sox but taking the series from the Cubs. Overall though, the Rays have dropped 6 of 10 and been held to two runs or less in all six losses. 

Corey Kluber gets the starting nod here for Tampa Bay and he too is without a win despite pitching well in his first two starts. But his numbers aren’t nearly as good as Wacha’s, plus Kluber had the benefit of facing Baltimore in his first start (where he walked four batters). Wacha has allowed just one run and three hits in his 9 ⅓ innings of work this season. The Boston bullpen has also been better than their Tampa Bay counterparts so far. Once again, this matchup has all the makings of the underdog stealing the series opener. 8* Boston

8* Cincinnati (6:40 ET): It’s been a somewhat disastrous start to the season for the Reds, who are a MLB-worst 2-11 and have dropped nine games in a row. But after having success with both Pittsburgh and Texas last night, I’m “feeling my oats” a bit here on Friday and think Cincy can finally get back in the win column. It’s a good spot as they are coming off an off-day while St. Louis was in Miami yesterday, losing 5-0. The Reds are the only team in MLB without a win at home, but they’ve also only played two games so far here at Great American Ballpark. 

It seems inconceivable that a Major League ballclub could be hitting .177 as a group, but that’s where we are at with the Reds right now. Look for them to start hitting tonight however, as Cardinals’ starter Steven Matz has struggled through two starts, posting a 7.27 ERA and 1.499 WHIP. Now he did throw five shutout innings in Milwaukee last weekend. But before that, Matz was roughed up to the tune of seven runs in just three innings by Pittsburgh. The Reds definitely have a shot to break out at the plate tonight. 

St. Louis has been far from an offensive juggernaut themselves thus far and they are hitting just .215 on the road. As I already mentioned, they got shut out yesterday and the game before that saw them score just two runs. They’ve finished with exactly five hits in three of their last four games! Over the L7 games, the Cardinals have scored two runs or less four times. Reds’ starter Hunter Greene has only allowed nine hits in 10 ⅓ IP (3 HRs) and was on the mound for one of the team’s two victories. Important to note that the Reds are coming off a seven-game road trip vs. the Dodgers & Padres, so is it any wonder they are on a losing streak? It ends here. 8* Cincinnati

8* Denver (10:05 ET): I expect the Nuggets to come out hot. As you probably know, there has never been a team in NBA history to come back from an 0-3 series deficit. So there’s a natural sense of “urgency” for teams down 0-2 in a best of seven series and when you throw in the fact they are back at home, it’s rather reasonable to expect a strong performance. Interestingly enough, despite losing each of the first two games by double digits, Denver has gotten off to good starts. They’ve lead after the 1Q in both games. 

It was late in the first half - when GS unveiled its so-called “death lineup” - when Game 1 turned in the Warriors’ favor. It wasn’t until after the halftime break when things unraveled for the Nuggets in Game 2 as they allowed 44 points in the third quarter. Note Denver only shot 31.4% from behind the arc in Game 1 and 42.5% overall in Game 2. Back at home, I certainly expect better shooting from them as they average 114.8 PPG here (59.3 in the 1H) on 48.2% shooting. Golden State, who shot very well in the first two games, should see an offensive decrease here in Game 3. Their number of points per game scored on the road this year is down from what they average at home while the amount of PPG allowed rises. 

In fact, Golden State has a negative point differential on the road in the first half this season. They are 22-19 SU on the road this season, but that’s a far cry from their 33-10 SU home record. Steph Curry has come off the bench in the first two games; that could change for Game 3, but regardless I think it’s the Nuggets that come out stronger. Going back to the regular season, Golden State has now beaten Denver three straight times, but before that the Nuggets had won the season’s first three meetings, including 131-124 here in the Mile High City back in March. Remember they were up 43-31 in the 2Q in Game 2. 8* Denver

8* Texas (9:40 ET): Well, we’ve got one last shot here with the Rangers, who are on the verge of being swept in Seattle. Both games have seen them fall behind early. But despite being outscored 10-4 in the two games, Texas has only been outhit 16-14. The Mariners are dealing with a bout of COVID-19 in the clubhouse as three players are out (including HR leader Haniger) as well as manager Scott Servais and two other coaches. It would be pretty shameful if the road team, off to its worst start since 1987, could not earn a win in this series.

I continue to maintain that the Mariners are due for some regression in 2022. They were a HUGE overachiever in 2021, exceeding their Pythagorean Win Expectation by 15, easily the most in the league. They’ve already been shutout twice this season and have scored four runs or less eight times. The lineup is now depleted because of COVID-19 and they are unlikely to get the kind of effort we saw on the mound yesterday with Logan Gilbert, who tossed 6 ⅔ scoreless innings. Thursday starter Marco Gonzales has had one good start and one bad one, but Texas knows him well (faced him 16 times previously).

I just don’t think the Mariners can keep up the kind of run suppression that we’ve seen from them thus far. Texas came into this series putting up a healthy number of runs and still averages 5.4 per game on the road. They’ll throw out lefty Taylor Hearn, who has failed to make it past the fourth inning in each of his first two outings, but at least he’s only allowed four total runs thus far. The Rangers are LONG overdue for a win here in Seattle. 8* Texas

10* Dallas (9:05 ET): Without Luka Doncic, the Mavericks were able to get a split at home with the Jazz. Now the series moves to Salt Lake City and Doncic is listed as questionable for Game 3 tonight. Doncic averaged 30 points, 11 rebounds and 7.7 assists in the regular season vs. Utah. I probably don’t need to tell you that his return would be gigantic for the Mavs. But, even if he can’t go, I still like the underdog (plus the points) in this one as the Jazz have been big money-burners over the last month or so, going 3-9-1 ATS L13 games. This is too many points that they are laying. 

In Game 2, the Mavs got a career-high 41 points from Jalen Brunson, made 22 three-pointers (a franchise record for a playoff game) and turned the ball over three times. When you consider that, it’s surprising they only won by six points, but beating the Jazz without Doncic is what counts. While I don’t think we can count on Dallas hitting 22 threes again, Utah’s poor perimeter defense tells me that the Mavs will still make a lot of threes in this game and, defensively, the Jazz have really struggled to contain Dallas’ small-ball lineup. Again, this is a lot of points to lay in a playoff game, especially if Doncic is coming back.

The fact Doncic was upgraded to questionable seems like a sign he will play, but regardless, Dallas proved they can stick with Utah even without their best player. Remember that Game 1 was close most of the way with the Jazz only pulling away late. Utah has averaged just 101.5 PPG in the series so far and after a SU loss they are only 10-21-2 ATS this season. Donovan Mitchell needed 30 shots to get to 34 points in Game 2 while Rudy Gobert (save for rebounding) was poor at both ends. Mike Conley didn’t even score a single point as he was in foul trouble. Not saying the Mavs pull the upset, but they’ll at least keep it close. 10* Dallas

8* Pittsburgh (7:40 ET): These teams split a pair of games at PNC Park last week with the Pirates losing the first one by one run (2-1), then bouncing back for a 6-2 win. A series with Milwaukee went predictably poorly for the Bucs as they suffered a three-game sweep at Miller Park and managed just five runs in the process. But it’s not the Brewers’ pitching staff they’ll have to deal with here. Tonight they get to face Mark Leiter Jr, whose first start for the Cubs was an unmitigated disaster. He allowed seven runs over just 3 ⅓ innings. I think the road team comes in and “steals” the serie opener.

Starting today for Pittsburgh will be Bryce Wilson. Despite not having dominant numbers, the Pirates have won both of his starts thus far - as +195 underdogs at St. Louis, then as -110 favorites over Washington. Through six games, the Cubs are hitting only .218 at home, which isn’t good and they could only manage four hits yday in an 8-2 loss to Tampa Bay that was shortened due to rain. While they were at least able to salvage a game, the Cubs actually had fewer hits in their previous series compared to the Pirates.

It would seem logical to write off Leiter’s 2022 debut as a byproduct of pitching at Coors Field. But it would also be fair to say Pittsburgh’s poor hitting from the last series was a byproduct of facing the top of Milwaukee’s rotation. "But I mean, I know we lost three games, but we played pretty damn well in this series,” said manager Derek Shelton. The Pirates are 6-0 the last six times they’ve faced an opponent that scored two or fewer runs in its previous game. They are also 14-6 L20 after being held to two runs or less themselves. The Cubs, who will be a public side here, are just 11-27 L38 games at Wrigley going back to last season. 8* Pittsburgh

7* Run Line Texas (9:40 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line selection where I am playing the Rangers +1.5. The road team fell behind early last night (3-0 after the first inning) and never could recover, eventually going down by a score of 6-2. The Rangers are now an incomprehensible 2-16 in Seattle the L3 seasons and off to a poor 2-8 overall start to 2022 (worst record in the American League). Tonight’s pitching matchup doesn’t necessarily look favorable either. But, despite all that you’ve just read, I believe the Rangers can at least stay within a run of the Mariners tonight, if not win outright.

Let’s start with the fact that Seattle is due for some serious regression in 2022. They were a HUGE overachiever in 2021, exceeding their Pythagorean Win Expectation by 15, easily the most in the league. They’ve already been shutout twice this season and have scored four runs or less seven times. Mitch Haniger, who was leading the Mariners in both home runs and RBI’s, is now on the COVID-19 list, so it was surprising that the team homered three times last night. All six of Seattle’s runs on Tuesday came via the long ball. The number of hits from the two clubs were almost even.

Texas has allowed more runs this season than everyone except Cincinnati, which is a problem, but tonight’s starter Dane Dunning has not been bad so far. Dunning has given up just five runs in his two starts and he was a winner for me his last time out, as a +135 underdog on the ML, against Shohei Ohtani and the Angels. Now Logan Gilbert and the Seattle bullpen have been shockingly good thus far, but I’m not convinced that can continue. Texas is still averaging 6.2 rpg on the road and has a higher team batting average than the Mariners. Five of the previous nine meetings between these teams have been decided by one run. 7* Run Line Texas

9* Toronto (7:35 ET): Though it’s officially a best of seven series, Game 3 is pretty much “do or die” for the Raptors as no one has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit in NBA playoff history. It’ll be a boost being back at home and remember because of COVID-19 protocol up in Canada, Philadelphia is going to be without one of its key reserves (Matisse Thybulle) who is unvaccinated. While that may not sound like a big deal, based on the fact Thybulle scored just eight total points in the first two games, I think the Raptors come out hot in Game 3 and make this an interesting series. Take the points.

Since 2005, teams down 0-2 in a series and returning home for Game 3 have covered roughly two-thirds of the time. So historically this is a profitable spot to back the Raptors, who are better than what they’ve shown in the first two games vs. the 76ers. In both games at Philly, things somewhat unraveled in the second quarter, leaving the Raptors to face large halftime deficits. Don’t see that happening at home where the team sees its scoring rise and number of points per game allowed go down (compared to the road). Toronto won seven of its final eight regular season home games, the lone loss coming by five to top seed Miami.

The Sixers had a surprisingly good road record in the regular season (27-14 SU), but only outscored opponents by about two points per game. As an away favorite, they are 11-12-1 ATS. In the first two games, the Sixers lived at the free throw line, getting 64 attempts and making 55. On the road, the refs are unlikely to be quite so generous. Over the course of the year, the team averaged 20 made FTs per game. So I expect a decrease in production from the charity stripe in Game 3. Perhaps most pertinent of all is the fact the Raptors are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS this season off three consecutive losses (they lost reg season finale). 9* Toronto

10* Under Nets/Celtics (7:05 ET): It was a Game 1 thriller on Sunday as the Celtics, after blowing a double digit lead, got the 115-114 win on a Jayson Tatum layup as time expired. As exciting as that finish was, I was a little “down in the dumps” due to the fact I was holding an Under ticket, which was a loser at 224.5. Oddsmakers have bumped the number up for Game 2 though and I’m seeing lots of value on the same bet (Under) as this is a Boston team that ranked #2 in defensive efficiency and #1 in scoring defense during the regular season. I do not believe Brooklyn is going to shoot 53.8% again like they did in Game 1. 

Kyrie Irving seemingly could not miss down the stretch for the Nets as he ended up with 39 points on 12/20 shooting from the field and 9/9 from the free throw line. Kevin Durant had “only” 23 points as he shot 9/24 overall, including 1 of 5 from three-point range. Certainly, the combo of Irving and Durant is capable of producing 60+ points every night. But only two other Nets finished Game 1 in double figures and both were reserves (Claxton and Dragic). Meanwhile, four Boston starters (led by Tatum’s 31) scored 20 or more points, but the rest of the team combined for a paltry 21 points. 

I’m well aware that the Over is now 5-0 in the season series between the Nets & Celtics. But at the risk of sounding like a “broken record” (from previous analysis), the playoffs are most certainly a “different animal.” There’s a good chance this could close as the highest O/U line of any of the six times the teams have met and three of the previous five closed with an O/U line of 217 pts or lower. I think that the Celtics are also due for some offensive regression (they’ve averaged 127.2 pts their L5 games) and the Under is 9-3 this season when they play with exactly two days rest. Game 2 will be lower scoring than Game 1.  10* Under Nets/Celtics

8* Under Brighton & Hove Albion/Manchester City (3:00 ET): Well, for the first time in a LONG time, Man City is NOT atop the Premier League table. Liverpool’s 4-0 thrashing of Manchester United put the Reds (I had ‘em) in first place by a single point. But now the Citizens have their opportunity to regain first place as they welcome Brighton & Hove Albion to Etihad Stadium on Wednesday. They are desperate to end a three-match winless streak across all competitions, but keep in mind that Brighton has been a “tough out” all season and comes in having beaten both Arsenal and Tottenham (two top five teams) the L2 weeks. 

The schedule seems to be taking its toll on Pep Guardiola’s side as he reported that Man City staff had to treat 71 injuries in the last week! Over the L10 days, the Citizens have had to face Liverpool twice, drawing them in league play (2-2) and then losing 3-2 in the FA Cup semifinals. In between, they played to a goalless draw against Atletico Madrid, which allowed them to advance to the Champions League semis. All is not lost though as a Premier League/Champions League double would be quite the accomplishment. Facing a Brighton club that has scored a total of just three goals in its last five matches should make things easier on the back end. 

It’s been four years since Brighton won three straight on the bounce in Premier League action and their win streak is likely to end here. They’ve lost eight of their last nine fixtures with Man City, including 4-1 in the reverse earlier this season. But I look for the rematch to be a low-scoring, cagey affair as Man City can still claim to have conceded the fewest number of goals (20) this Premier League season while Brighton has only found the back of the net 29 times, third fewest, ahead of only Burnley and Norwich City. 8* Under Brighton & Hove Albion/Manchester City

10* Chelsea (2:45 ET): While I understand that Chelsea has third place all but wrapped up and is coming off the emotional ‘high’ of booking a spot in the FA Cup Final, this is an awfully low price on the Blues at Stamford Bridge. Following rather shocking B2B defeats here - with a VERY uncharacteristic seven goals conceded - Chelsea has turned it around with three consecutive victories, the latest coming Sunday in 2-0 fashion over an underrated Crystal Palace side in the FA Cup semis. Of course, the last time we saw Thomas Tuchel’s side in league play, they thrashed Southampton by a score of 6-0. 

Arsenal still has designs on finishing in the top four, but the Gunners’ recent form has been poor as they’ve dropped three straight Premier League matches. The latest was a 1-0 defeat to Southampton, the same side Chelsea recently put the sword to. During the three-match losing streak, Arsenal has managed just one goal. With Chelsea having conceded only 23 goals in EPL play this season, this is probably not the fixture for the Gunners to turn their offensive form around. Sure enough, it was a 2-0 win for the Blues in the reverse, all the way back in August, especially with Kieran Tierney and Thomas Partey both likely absent for this one. 

It is difficult for me to envision Chelsea going three in a row at Stamford Bridge without a victory. The losses to Brentford and Real Madrid here were a little head-scratching, but before that the Blues had won six consecutive home matches and they have an xGD (expected goal differential) of +12.2 here for the season. Only four sides have a better home xGD, ironically Arsenal being one of them. But of course that indicates the Gunners’ away form has been lousy and sure enough they have won less than half their matches on their travels this season. Look for Chelsea to pick up all three points Wednesday. 10* Chelsea

8* Texas (9:40 ET): The Rangers haven’t won since Thursday, which is when I had them as my 10* Game of the Week. That 10-5 win came in a series opener vs. a division rival (Angels) and is the club’s lone victory over its past six games. Only six teams have scored more runs than Texas has so far, so it’s surprising to see them at 2-7 and in last place in the AL West. Of course, having allowed the most runs among AL teams (three NL teams have given up more runs) hasn’t helped. But I look for a reversal of fortune on Tuesday against the Mariners. 

Seattle comes into this series opener having just taken two of three from Houston here at home. The Mariners have won three of four overall, but before that had dropped four straight. They’ve already been shutout twice this season and have scored four runs or less seven times. Mitch Haniger, who was leading the Mariners in both home runs and RBI’s, is now on the COVID-19 list, so look for the home team to struggle at the plate tonight. I know Texas’ pitching has not been the best, but Opening Day starter Jon Gray is set to toe the rubber for them tonight. 

Gray, signed away from Colorado in the offseason, allowed just three hits on Opening Day vs. Toronto, a game the Rangers’ bullpen blew. He missed his next scheduled start due to a blister, but is 1-0 with a 2.38 ERA in two prior starts vs. the Mariners. Seattle was a HUGE overachiever in 2021, exceeding its Pythagorean Win Expectation by 15, easily the most in the league. So I anticipate some serious regression in 2022. Robbie Ray, who won the Cy Young last year for Toronto, has a 4.73 ERA and 1.425 WHIP in his first two starts for the M’s, who will not offer Ray the same support his old club did. 8* Texas

analysis soon

10* Over Hawks/Heat (7:35 ET): I went with the Over in Game 1 of this series, which did not hit due to Atlanta only scoring 91 points on 38.7% shooting. The team was just 10 of 36 on three-pointers with Trae Young’s 0 for 7 sticking out like a sore thumb. You may recall Young having similar struggles (1 for 7 on 3PA) in the play-in game vs. Charlotte, only to bounce back the next game (vs. Cleveland) and score 38 points. He’s only 5 for 25 from behind the arc in the L3 games, so I’m sensing Young regaining his “touch” tonight and for the Hawks to come closer to their season average of 113.8 points per game. This was the most efficient offense in the league during the regular season! 

Miami didn’t really have much trouble making shots in Game 1 as they finished at 52.4% overall, including 18 of 38 from three-point range. As I said in the Game 1 analysis, this Heat team has a variety of scoring options and on Sunday, it turned out to be Duncan Robinson leading the way as he went 8 of 9 from three-point range for a team-high 27 points. Robinson probably won’t be repeating that performance tonight, but the good news is the Heat have enough options to fill the void left by Robinson regression. Also, Atlanta is not a good defensive team; they are 26th in efficiency, which is the lowest ranking of any of the 16 playoff teams. 

I’m very surprised to see that the Hawks have gone Under nine straight times as underdogs. Look for that trend to end here though as they’ll easily top their Game 1 point total while very likely still giving up a similar number. Miami has shot better than 50% from the field in five of its last six games, never scoring fewer than 111 points in that stretch. Young’s point total (8) from Game 1 marked a season-low. It was just the sixth time that he scored 15 pts or less this season. He’s averaged 31.2 PPG after the previous five times. 10* Over Hawks/Heat

8* Toronto (7:10 ET): Love the spot for the Blue Jays here as they had Monday off whereas Boston did not. The Red Sox lost 8-3 to the Twins, putting a damper on Patriots Day, and leaving them with a series split. Not since starting the season 0-2 have the Red Sox dropped B2B games, but they are the inferior team in this matchup and that makes Toronto a bargain at ‘plus money.’ The Jays’ offense, despite what the numbers say about the road, has been strong so far and I look for them to come into Fenway and take the series opener. 

Toronto is the favorite of many, including myself, to win the American League East this season. In fact, as of right now, I project them to finish with the most wins in the entire American League! This is a team that finished with a better run differential than either the Red Sox or Yankees last season and there was a nine-game gap between their actual and expected number of wins, which made them the biggest “underachiever” in all of MLB in 2021. The team is stronger coming into this season. 

It will be Yusei Kikuchi getting the nod Monday for the Jays. His first start did not go particularly well, but he’s had a week off to get back on track. Kikuchi will be opposed by Nathan Eovaldi, who has given up two home runs in each of his first two starts. The Blue Jays rank third in MLB in home runs (14), so look out for that. Toronto’s bullpen has been better than Boston’s so far and this game could come down to that. Lengthening the advantage is that the Red Sox pen worked 4 ⅓ innings yesterday. 8* Toronto

8* Liverpool -1.5 (3:00 ET): Liverpool fans are now dreaming of an elusive “quadruple” as the club has already bagged the Carabao Cup this season and finds itself in position to pick up three more pieces of hardware over the next month. Over the last week, the Reds booked their place in the Champions League semifinals and the FA Cup Final, the latter coming by way of 3-2 win over Manchester City. In the Premier League, Liverpool still trails Man City (they played to a 2-2 draw in league action two weeks ago), but only by a single point. So a win today would move the Reds to the top of the table, albeit maybe just for the time being (Man City faces Brighton tomorrow). 

Now, looking at the odds, a Liverpool win doesn’t seem to be in question for today. They have not lost a single Premier League match here at Anfield this season (12-3-0), turning in a phenomenal +32 goal differential in the process. They’ve won 10 straight here and come into today’s fixture having scored 2+ goals in each of their last five competitions. So considering the available options, I’m going with the goal line here as this should be a multi-goal victory for the home side. When they faced Man U at Old Trafford earlier this season, it was a 5-0 demolition. 

That’s part of a disturbing trend for United, who has not fared well against the top EPL sides this season. Against the top three this season, they’ve been outscored 12-2 and the xG (expected goal) difference isn’t far off. The highest amount of possession Man U held in any of those three losses was 37% (in the 5-0 loss to Liverpool, ironically). United comes in fifth in the table, three points behind Tottenham, but considering they could barely beat last place Norwich City last week (needed a Cristiano Ronaldo hat trick), it’s difficult to like their chances here. Before LW, they’d scored only one goal across three fixtures. 8* Liverpool -1.5 (Goal Line)

10* Mallorca (1:00 ET): This is a critical six-pointer at the bottom of the La Liga table with both sides facing the prospect of relegation down to the Segunda Division. Cadiz’s surprise 1-0 over Barcelona didn’t do any favors for Mallorca and Alaves, who currently both sit in the relegation zone. Mallorca is 18th, tied with Granada on points, but behind on goal differential. So a single point here would get them into safety (for the time being). However, a win would move them ahead of both Granada and Cadiz and into a tie for 15th. That’s what I see happening today as the last time they were at home, they defeated Atletico Madrid.

Alaves, even after a surprise 1-0 win last week, still sits at the bottom of the table with 25 points. They are tied with Levante (behind on GD), but four points clear of safety. Alaves has the worst GD in all of La Liga. Their 1-0 win over 1-0 Rayo Vallecano last week snapped a seven-match winless run in the league, but I can’t say it was deserved as El Glorioso lost the xG (expected goal) battle. Though they’ve remained in the Spanish top flight since 2016, I can’t say it would be a shock to see Alaves end up relegated. They lost the reverse, 1-0, to Mallorca earlier this season.

Mallorca is trying to make it B2B seasons in La Liga for the first time since 2013. Almost all of their 29 points this season have been accrued at home (21 to be exact) and getting this one here is big, not just for that reason, but also because Alaves has the worst away record in the league this season. Fading the last place side on the road at this price seems to be a real bargain and I felt Mallorca’s 3-0 loss to Elche LW was misleading as the xG battle was relatively even and they had more shots on goal. Alaves, who has scored one goal or less in five of its last six fixtures, was outshot and lost the possession battle badly against Rayo Vallecano. 10* Mallorca

10* Under Raptors/76ers (7:30 ET): It wasn’t Joel Embiid or James Harden leading the way for the 76ers in Game 1. It was Tyrese Maxey, who had 38 points in a breakout performance. Now Maxey didn’t do it all himself as it was a huge offensive night with four players scoring 19+ and the team finishing with 131 points on 51.2% shooting, including 16 of 32 from three-point range. I can’t imagine we’ll see that kind of shooting again from Philadelphia, who is overdue for some offensive regression after averaging 125.4 points over their last five games (5-0 Over). The Sixers also made 29 free throws in Game 1, which is more than usual. 

Meanwhile, Game 1 was a largely miserable experience for Toronto, who are now likely to be without Gary Trent, Scottie Barnes and Thaddeus Young for Game 2. Now the team did shoot 48.8% on Saturday and went 12 of 30 from behind the arc. That’s better than average for the Raptors. Trent, dealing with a non-COVID illness, was 2 for 11 in Game 1. Barnes and Young’s absences will be felt, however. Clearly though, if the Raptors are to have any chances of evening up this series, it has to come on the defensive end. Game 1 was just the third time all season that they allowed 130+ points. 

I’m looking for worse all-around shooting in Game 2 - from both teams. The last two times they have played, three-point shooting has been through the roof. That just can’t continue. Toronto’s only chance here is to slow the game down. Both teams ranked in the bottom six in tempo during the regular season. They also both ranked just outside the top 10 in defensive efficiency. The Raptors’ previous six road games (before Game 1) had all stayed Under and the Under is also 5-2 the last seven times that they have been off a loss. During the regular season, the teams combined to average 36 made free throws per game. They made 48 in Game 1. 10* Under Raptors/76ers 

10* Under Nets/Celtics (3:30 ET): Unders certainly “ruled the day” in the NBA’s “Play-In Tournament,” cashing in all six games. Here we’ve got a matchup of division foes, Brooklyn and Boston, who very well could be considered the top two favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference. The Nets are the seven seed, far lower than expected, but any team with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving must be considered dangerous. They easily extinguished Cleveland in the play-in round, jumping out to a 20-point lead after the first quarter and winning 115-108. But they did not cover the spread.

Boston ended up with the best net efficiency and point differential among Eastern Conference teams at the end of the regular season. They are the highest rated team, in my own power rankings, in the East heading into the postseason. They ended up #2 overall in defensive efficiency and #1 in scoring defense (104.5 PPG allowed). Now this team was a bit of a scoring juggernaut down the stretch, averaging 129.8 points over its final five regular season games and going Over in 9 of the last 11. But I can’t see that continuing now that it’s playoff-time. We’ve seen similar trends so far with the play-in teams that ended the regular season in high scoring fashion. 

Over the last seven games, the only time Brooklyn went Over was the regular season finale against an Indiana team that is quite poor defensively. They are 36-19 Under this season when the O/U line is 220 points or higher. I just can’t see the Nets shooting as well here as they have in their last two games (64.2% vs. IND and 53.6% vs. CLE). The Celtics are allowing a 43.5 FG% for the year. Yes, I know all four regular season meetings did go Over the total. But at the risk of sounding like a “broken record,” the playoffs are a different animal. 10* Under Nets/Celtics

8* Over Hawks/Heat (1:00 ET): Overs made a bit of a “comeback” in the NBA playoffs on Saturday, cashing in three of the four games. That was after the first seven playoff games all stayed Under. I expect the Over “comeback” to continue in this game as division rivals Atlanta & Miami open their best of seven series. The Hawks had to win two “do or die” games just to get to this point, 132-103 over Charlotte (at home) and then 107-101 at Cleveland. I cashed the Under on both of those games. But with a lower total on this game, I’m expecting a different result. 

Despite an off-shooting night from leading scorer Trae Young, who was 8 of 24 overall and 1 of 7 from three-point range, Atlanta still put together a huge offensive performance against Charlotte. Of course, that was at home. Collectively, they didn’t shoot very well from three against Cleveland, making only 9 of 31 attempts. But this time Young rescued them with a 38-point performance. I obviously expect better three-point shooting Sunday from the Hawks. This is a high-scoring team (114.1 PPG) that is #1 in the league in offensive efficiency! I just can’t see them going Under for a ninth straight time as underdogs. 

Miami is the top seed in the East, boasting tremendous depth and a variety of scorers. They led the NBA in three-point shooting during the regular season (37.9%) and in four games vs. Atlanta this season, the Heat shot better than 50% overall. The Hawks aren’t a very good defensive team (they allow 112.8 PPG on the road) and after holding Charlotte/Cleveland to an average of 102 PPG, I think there’s some natural regression at that end of the floor. Four of the Heat’s last five regular season games went Over. 8* Over Hawks/Heat

8* Leicester City (9:15 AM ET): Taking Leicester City on the goal line here, so all we would need is a draw to cash a winning ticket. That doesn’t seem like a “big ask” considering the side they are facing, Newcastle United, has spent the bulk of the year near the bottom of the table. Though the Magpies have recently seen an uptick in performance, and thus are likely to avoid relegation, they are still sitting in 15th place. Only three sides in the league (as of Saturday) are worse off in terms of goal differential and only two are lower in xPts (expected points). I really like only needing a draw in this fixture. 

Though the 2021/22 season has seen Leicester slip a bit, down to ninth in the table (they finished fifth last season), the Foxes have improved their own form recently by going unbeaten in their last five across all competitions. Most recently they progressed to the semis of the Europa Conference League, defeating PSV Eindhoven 2-1 on their own turf. That was midweek (Thursday), so the Foxes are at a bit of a disadvantage schedule-wise, but I still think they’re being undervalued in this spot. Last time in the league, Leicester defeated Crystal Palace (who is in the semis of the FA Cup) 2-1. 

Leicester is also the last team to defeat suddenly surging Brentford and they drew Manchester United earlier this month as well. The return of Johnny Evans to the starting XI has helped defensively. As for Newcastle, they’ve been overachieving since the transfer window closed, both on GD and xPts. It was a 4-0 thrashing at King Power (in favor of Leicester) when these teams met in the reverse back in December. Leicester is still gunning for a top half finish. That and the Europa Conference League will keep their motivation high down the stretch. Newcastle’s goal of avoiding relegation has been achieved and they’ve failed to score more than one goal in any of the L4 matches. 8* Leicester City

10* Golden State (8:35 ET): The Warriors won their last five regular season games, all without Steph Curry, and now the former league MVP is expected back for Game 1 of this best of seven series vs. Denver. Relative to some of the other first round series, the Warriors aren’t that large of a favorite to advance here, but I see them doing so without much issue. At full strength, the Dubs are clearly a Top 5 team in the NBA and I see them rolling in Game 1 Saturday night over a Denver team that I just don’t believe in, even though they have reigning league MVP Nikola Jokic among their ranks. Lay the points. 

Curry (foot) is officially listed as probable. Note that I’m rolling with Golden State regardless. If Curry doesn’t play, then the opportunity to get a better number will be there. But barring something unforeseen, it appears he WILL play. “We expect him to play,” said Warriors’ HC Steve Kerr. The team won its last five games by an average of 13.2 PPG and its outscoring foes by nearly 10 PPG at home this season. So home court advantage for this series certainly seems significant, even though the Nuggets had a better win percentage on the road. Also key is that the Warriors finished the regular season #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. That will serve them well in the playoffs. 

While the Warriors’ core of Curry-Thompson-Green SHOULD be together on the floor for Game 1, Denver will continue to be without Michael Porter Jr and Jamal Murray. While Jokic carried the team with those two out, doing so in a series against Golden State seems a lot more problematic. Yes, the Nuggets did win three of the four regular season matchups. But Golden State won the last one, led by Curry’s 34 points. Denver is just nowhere as good defensively (18th in efficiency) and they are 1-4 ATS L5 games as a playoff underdog. 10* Golden State

6* Martin Buday (6:55 ET): This fight takes place in the UFC’s Heavyweight Division. It’s scheduled for three rounds, on the prelims, with Buday (9-1) making his UFC debut against Chris Barnett, who is 22-7 overall in his pro career but just 1-1 in UFC. As you can see, Buday is the big favorite here and I think that’s justified as you should him to get his hand raised Saturday night. 

Buday is a graduate of Dana White’s “Contenders Series,” so it’s not like he’s new to the UFC radar. The Slovakian known as “Badys” is coming off a 1st round TKO over Lorenzo Hood on DWCS (in October) to get the opportunity here. Buday has won his last eight fights, all by stoppage, five of those coming in the first round. He hasn’t been taken past the second round since 2017. Yet, if this one does go longer than expected, I still expect him to be the better fighter down the stretch. 

Barnett, who is 5’9” but a massive 264 lbs, comes off a spectacular knockout victory over Gian Villante back in November at UFC 268. That was after being submitted by Ben Rothwell back in May. But when not able to execute short bursts of offense or deliver the one-punh knockout, Barnett is typically at a disadvantage inside the Octagon. Look for Buday to take this one to the mat and use his grappling skills to grind out a decision victory at the very least. Barnett has gone the distance only two times since 2016. 6* Martin Buday

9* Under Raptors/76ers (6:05 ET): Taking the full advantage of both Chicago & Cleveland falling apart down the stretch, Toronto moved up into fifth place in the East and will now face a Philadelphia team they were victorious against three times in four regular season meetings. The Raptors have lost only four times since March 7th and one of those came in the utterly meaningless regular season finale. Let it be known the Raptors beat the 76ers in both meetings after the latter acquired James Harden. So the team from “North of the Border” certainly seems like a “live dog” in Game 1. But I’m not sure they’re going to score a ton of points on Saturday. 

Philadelphia's last four regular season games all went Over, one of them being a 119-114 loss in Toronto. The total here is lower, somewhat curiously, but I seriously doubt we’ll see the teams shoot as well from three-point range here as they did in that last matchup when they combined to make nearly 50 percent from behind the arc. Two of the Sixers’ last four games saw them top 130 points, but both of those were against the horrendous Pacers. It’s playoff time, and even with Harden and Joel Embiid, the Sixers are due for a bit of a scoring decline. 

Both teams rank just outside the top 10 in defensive efficiency and are bottom six in pace. That combo leads me to believe that Game 1 will be lower scoring than expected. Both teams scored less this season when matched up with division opponents. The last time they met here in Philly, which was less than a month ago, the final score was 93-88. Harden has averaged just 15.0 PPG against the Raptors as a member of the Sixers. Toronto is 19-7 Under its L26 road games. 9* Under Raptors/76ers

10* Philadelphia (6:10 ET): Let’s try this one again. The Phillies have now dropped four in a row, the last two losses coming here in Miami. They fell behind early last night, 4-0 after two innings, and eventually went down by a final of 7-1. That’s not what I was looking for, having taken the visitors. I just can’t see them being swept this weekend though and at plus money, the Phils are a good value in this series. I’ll call for Saturday starter Ranger Suarez to bounce back here from a rough first outing 

Suarez gave up three runs in just 2 ⅔ IP on Monday, but his team was able to bail him out and come from behind for a 5-4 win over the Mets. That’s the last time Philly won a game. One of the reasons I expect Suarez to pitch better in this spot is how he fared the last time he faced the Marlins. Last October, he shut them out for seven innings and got the win. In fact, Suarez is currently working on a 12 inning scoreless streak vs. the Marlins, the entirety of which has come here in Miami. 

Don’t forget what I said yesterday either. The Phillies have generally been outhitting their opponents this season. Yesterday was just the second game all season that they ended up with fewer hits compared to the opposing team. Miami’s offensive display on Friday was an aberration as the seven runs scored marked a season-high. Trevor Rogers gets the start here for the home team. He took the loss in his first start and had only three strikeouts in 5 IP. Rhys Hoskins has had Rogers’ number in the past and JT Realmuto (went 4 for 4 on Thursday) will be back in the Phillies’ lineup tonight. They are the play. 10* Philadelphia

10* Torino +1 (2:45 ET): Playing Torino on the goal line this week as they have turned it around the last two weeks, not conceding a single goal. Last time I took them was a 1-0 win over last place Salernitana, which may not sound all that impressive, but sharing the points with Serie A leaders AC Milan last week in a goalless draw certainly was. Over its last five matches, Torino has now conceded only two goals and they’ve shared the points not just with this year’s league leaders but also the reigning Scudetto holders. I’m willing to bet that they can at least share the points with Lazio on Saturday. 

No team in all of Europe’s “Big 4” leagues has overperformed its xG (expected goal) total more than Lazio. They have scored 64 times in Serie A matches this season, second most to Inter, but have an xG total of just 47.76. To put that discrepancy into its proper perspective, only Verona has exceeded its xG total by more than seven. The overperformance continued last week with four goals against 19th place Genoa when the xG total was just 2.16. Eventually, Lazio is going to have a match where it underperforms offensively. I think this is the fixture where that happens.

Now Lazio certainly has much to play for here as they are sixth in the table and seven points back of the top four. But a Torino side that has a top five defensive mark in the league is a bad matchup and these clubs shared the points in a 1-1 draw back in September. It even took a late penalty, in stoppage time, for Lazio to earn the draw. I just can’t see the favorite winning by two goals here, so the goal line is the way to go in this one. 10* Torino

10* Rayo Vallecano (10:15 AM ET): Rayo has managed to share the points in three of its last four matches, including Monday’s 1-1 draw with Valencia. But they have actually not won in the league since December and that 12 match winless run (eight losses, four draws) has left them only six points clear of safety heading into this weekend. But Rayo seems to have the perfect opponent to snap their winless streak, that being an Alaves side that is not only last in the La Liga table, but also the last time Rayo defeated. Take the away team on the “draw no bet” line, even though I expect them to get the full three points here. 

Rayo has been fairly unlucky down the stretch, especially two weeks ago when it had to settle for a 2-2 draw with Granada after jumping out to an early 2-0 lead. That match swung on a red card in the 51st minute and Granada got the equalizer in stoppage time on a controversial penalty. Last week against Valencia, it was Rayo that got the late equalizer, but they also won the possession battle and had more shots than Valencia. During the winless streak, Rayo has 12.84 xPts so they are incredibly unlucky to have taken only four.

As for Alaves, there’s really nothing unlucky about their current last place standing. El Glorioso now has the worst goal differential in the league (-29) and most losses (19). They’ve lost four in a row and are winless over the last seven fixtures. No La Liga side has scored fewer goals this season than Alaves’ 24 and they’ve been outscored 9-3 over the four-game losing streak. Rayo dominated the first meeting, winning 2-0, and should do the same again here. 10* Rayo Vallecano (Draw No Bet Line)

10* Brentford (10:00 AM ET): Brentford is an “in-form” side right now, having won four of its last five matches. This run has all but guaranteed that the Bees will be back in the English top flight next season, which is well deserved as this club is actually 7th in xPts (expected points) in the entire Premier League. Unfortunately, I can’t say the same for Watford, another side that was promoted before the start of this season. The Hornets currently sit 19th in the table and are six points clear of safety following last week’s results. So I’ll gladly take Brentford on the “draw no bet line” Saturday. 

Each of the L2 weeks have seen Brentford take down a top six side in the Premier League table. Who could forget what they did to Chelsea two weeks ago, scoring four times at Stamford Bridge? Then, last week I played them this same way (draw = no bet) against West Ham and the Bees walked away 2-0 winners at home. Now 12 points clear of the drop zone, Brentford can move past Aston Villa, Brighton & Crystal Palace with a win here and into 10th place. 

As for Watford, they have not won here at Vicarage Road since November (lost 9 in a row!), conceding 25 times during that particular losing streak. Only last place Norwich City and Leeds Unitied have conceded more goals this season and Watford’s three clean sheets are the fewest in the whole league. In the reverse fixture, Brentford dominated far more than the 2-1 final suggests and now that they’re in even better form, it should be an easy three points. 10* Brentford (Draw No Bet Line)

8* Under Pelicans/Clippers (10:05 ET): I hit side and total when the Clippers lost 109-104 in Minnesota on Tuesday. The Under was never really in doubt as the O/U line closed at 231. The Clippers thought they were on their way to the playoffs when they were up 10 in the fourth quarter and Karl Anthony-Towns fouled out. But it was not to be as they finished with just 20 points in the 4Q. As I said in the previous writeup, they were due for an “off-night” offensively after closing the regular season with five straight wins where they averaged 128 PPG. I think that carries over to tonight. 

New Orleans was able to run away from San Antonio early and hold on for a 113-103 win Wednesday. That was my only loss in the play-in round as I took the Spurs plus the points. That play had more to do with what I thought was an underrated Spurs’ side. Tip your cap to the Pelicans for their performance, but I don’t think the team’s three leading scorers (McCollum, Ingram, Valanciunas) will be as efficient as they were in the last game when they combined to shoot 32 of 56 from the field (57.1%) and score 81 points. Note the rest of the team scored just 32 points. On the road, role players contribute less and the Under is 26-15 in Pelicans’ away games this season.

The Under has cashed in four of the last five head to head meetings between these teams, both of whom surprisingly ranked OUTSIDE the top 10 in the Western Conference in points per game. Looking back to the regular season, the two games here in Los Angeles were higher scoring than the two in New Orleans, but the Clips were only able to top 104 pts against the Pelicans once and that was a relatively meaningless affair late in the year. The Pelicans will NOT shoot 54% again (like they did vs. SA) as the Clips have held their L5 opponents to 40.7% shooting and 100.8 PPG. 8* Under Pelicans/Clippers

9* St. Louis (8:10 ET): The Cardinals fell behind early on Thursday, going down 4-0 by the end of the third inning. That was pretty much “all she wrote” as the Redbirds had no answer for Brewers’ starter Brandon Woodruff, who shut them out for five innings and gave up three hits. There was a chance in the third inning, down only 2-0, but the Cards left the bases loaded. It’s been a relatively “light” schedule thus far for St. Louis due to a couple rainouts, but they’ve yet to lose B2B games. I think that trend holds after tonight. 

Milwaukee has now won three straight following a 1-3 start, but keep in mind two of those wins were over lowly Baltimore. The Brewers have yet to score more than five runs in a game this year. Friday starter Freddy Peralta was pretty dreadful in his first outing of 2022, giving up three runs in four innings to the Cubs. The Brew Crew were lucky to come back and win that game 5-4. Peralta walked four batters and gave up a HR. The L3 times he’s faced St. Louis, Peralta has allowed 10 ER in 10 IP. 

Now Miles Mikolas also struggled a bit in his first start, giving up a couple of runs (on six hits) in 3 ⅔ IP vs. Pittsburgh. But like Peralta, Mikolas was fortunate that his team got the win, 6-2 over Pittsburgh. Due to injury, Mikolas made just nine starts last season, but he was sharp in the two vs. the Brew Crew. Remember that yesterday was the home opener here in Milwaukee, so enthusiasm will be down for Friday. I think the door is open for the road team to come in and “steal one” tonight. 9* St. Louis

8* Under Hawks/Cavaliers (7:35 ET): Home teams won each of the first four play-in games, but bettors sure don’t seem to like Cleveland’s chances here. That’s probably because, in addition to a poor finish to the regular season, the Cavaliers fell into an early 20-point hole against the Nets (by the end of the first quarter) and never really recovered on Tuesday. But they did cover the spread in that game (only road team to cover this week) and they have an added day of preparation here, plus the home court edge. There’s also the possibility that All-Star Jarrett Allen returns, which would be significant for the Cavs. 

Atlanta blew out Charlotte 132-103 in their first play-in matchup, but unlike Cleveland, the Hawks have to win twice to make the playoffs. The Hawks scored 132 despite an off-night from leading scorer Trae Young, who was 8 of 24 overall and 1 of 7 from three-point range. That has to be terrifying for a Cleveland team that let Young, who averaged 32.5 PPG in the four regular season meetings. But while Young’s overall shooting is bound to improve (compared to Wednesday), I don’t think you can expect the Hawks’ supporting cast to shoot as well as they did Wednesday now that they’re on the road.

Atlanta is not a particularly good road team (16-25 SU) and sees its scoring average dip to 111.2 PPG. They go from facing a Hornets team that was dead last in the East in scoring defense to a Cleveland team that is top five in the NBA in scoring defense. The Under is 25-15-1 in Cavs’ home games this season with them allowing just 103.7 PPG. Allen’s return (he is questionable) would be huge at the defensive end. Home teams aren’t the only thing that have been perfect so far in the play-in round; Unders are 4-0 as well. Atlanta did a good job defensively Weds against a Charlotte team that is 4th in the league in scoring. 8* Under Hawks/Cavaliers

10* Philadelphia (6:45 ET): After starting the season 3-1, the Phillies have - all of a sudden - dropped three in a row including a 4-3 decision here in Miami last night. Last night’s defeat was a tough one for Philly as the outhit the Fish 11-6. In fact, the Phils have only been outhit in one game so far, a 4-1 loss to Oakland last Sunday. That was the first start for Zach Eflin, who will get the baseball again tonight, and he pitched well, delivering four shutout innings of two-hit ball. I really like the value on the road team tonight. 

Miami ended its own three-game skid with Wednesday’s victory. We just haven’t seen much offense though from the Marlins yet, as they most runs they’ve scored in any game is five and that was the season opener. The offense has produced just 14 hits the L3 games, though they have drawn 12 walks. But they are batting a collective .200 thus far and that’s not going to get it done. Starter Pablo Lopez was sharp in his first outing of 2022, the team’s only other win besides yday, but I’m not expecting a repeat performance. 

Eflin was strong in Spring Training, posting a 0.96 ERA. Based on that and the four shutout innings we saw vs. Oakland, it’s shaping up to be a promising season for him. With the Marlins struggling to hit, this looks like a good matchup. The Marlins seemed to have an “added boost” yesterday with a larger than usual crowd (it was the home opener) but that won’t be the case every day. Again, love the value here as I’ve got the Phillies rated as the better team. 10* Philadelphia

10* Texas (8:05 ET): The Rangers are just 1-4 on the young season after dropping their first two home games (to Colorado). They were ML favorites for both those games, so coming out 0-2 was a disappointment. Texas’ first series, which was in Toronto, saw them blow a huge lead on Opening Day but make their own grandiose comeback in the third game to avoid the sweep. Given that the Rangers have scored 28 runs in five games, you’d think they’d have more than one win. But they don’t. Look for them to pick up a win here in the series opener vs. the Angels.

The Angels are now 3-2 on the season as they were far more successful than the Rangers in their interleague series at home to start the week. The Halos took both games from Miami, although they finished with only four hits on Tuesday. This will be the first road game for Los Angeles and they turn to Shohei Ohtani, who allowed just one run and four hits in 4 ⅔ IP in his first start. But going back to the end of last season, the Angels have lost Ohtani’s L4 starts.

Texas counters with Dane Dunning, who is also making his second start of 2022. His first time out Dunning allowed three runs across five innings and the Rangers lost 4-3 to the Blue Jays. Dunning did not factor into the decision. He was a much more effective pitcher at home last season (3.05 ERA) and the last time he faced the Halos here in Arlington, he held them to one run and three hits in a win. I feel the Rangers are due for a win here and the Angels are overrated on the road because of Ohtani. 10* Texas

10* San Antonio (9:30 ET): The winner of this game will move on to face the LOSER of Clippers-T’wolves (played on Tuesday) to determine who is the #8 seed (and face Phoenix in the first round) for the Western Conference playoffs. Despite finishing with their second worst win percentage EVER under HC Gregg Popovich, the Spurs should have finished with a far better record. Based on their point differential, they should have a winning record, not be 14 games below .500. Only Boston and Utah underperformed their Pythagorean win total more. I’m on the Spurs Weds to at least cover. Honestly, I expect them to win here. 

The Spurs won and covered three of the four regular season matchups with the Pelicans. Significant is that they were 2-1 SU/ATS in the three matchups after NO acquired CJ McCollum. The Pelicans were definitely a better team after the All-Star Break, but they have the worst expected win percentage of any team still playing. They are also a bottom five team in three-point shooting. Both Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas remain on the injury report (as questionable) for Weds. While I expect one or both to play, those would be massive losses for a game of this magnitude.

The Spurs should enter this game relatively healthy. Leading scorer Dejounte Murray is the first player in NBA HISTORY to average 20-9-8 (points-rebounds-assists) over the course of an entire season. The Spurs are 19-12 ATS as road underdogs, the third best record in that situation in the league. They also have the best money line record as road dogs, having posted 12 outright wins. The Spurs’ losing record on the road (straight up) is highly misleading as they scored more than they allowed in those games. They are the better team in this matchup, so I’m definitely taking the points. 10* San Antonio

9* Under Hornets/Hawks (7:05 ET): A win here does not guarantee either the Hornets or Hawks a playoff opportunity, rather the winner will head to Cleveland Friday for a game to determine the East’s 8-seed. Charlotte is back in the play-in tournament for a second straight year. Last year, they lost in this 9-10 game, 144-117 to Indiana, ending their season. For Atlanta, being here is a drop from last year when they entered the playoffs as a 5-seed and made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals. This is a VERY high total for two teams familiar with one another and I’m playing the Under. 

Hornets’ games - on average - are the highest scoring in the entire NBA. They average 230.2 PPG, but even that wouldn’t be enough to go Over this number. During the regular season, the Hornets went Over 41 times and Under 41 times. But when facing a team with a winning record (Atlanta is 43-39 SU), the Under is 27-13. I don’t expect Charlotte to shoot as well as they did over the L5 regular season games (53.5%) nor do I believe they’ll allow Atlanta to shoot 50.9%, which was the FG% allowed by the Hornets to those same L5 opponents. 

Three of the four regular season meetings between the Hawks & Hornets stayed Under, including the most recent one (a 116-106 Charlotte win). Only once did these Southeast Division rivals combine for more than 222 points in the regular season. Similar to Charlotte, Atlanta is 12-2 Under its last 14 games vs. teams with winning records. Do the Hawks score a lot at home? Yes. But their home games still only average 228.4 PPG. In the playoffs, scoring goes down. 9* Under Hornets/Hawks

10* Minnesota (9:30 ET): The Timberwolves did not finish the regular season particularly strong (3-4 SU/1-6 ATS L7) but that’s not at all indicative of how they played most of the way. This team’s statistical profile is much more “on par” with the likes of Dallas and Denver than it is with the rest of the “play-in” teams. Case in point, the T’wolves had a better point differential and net efficiency rating compared to the sixth placed Nuggets. Getting this game at home is huge for a young team and I expect them to advance by defeating the Clippers Tuesday. 

Conversely, the Clippers did finish the regular season quite well, winning their final five games by an average of more than 25 PPG. While that’s obviously quite impressive, consider four of the wins were at home, the last three all coming against non-contending (Sacramento, OKC) or disinterested (Phoenix) teams. The return of Paul George obviously makes this a stronger team, but it’s hard to look past the fact that even with the strong finish, LA was downright mediocre this year. They are 2-8 ATS in their L10 games against teams that are .500 or better. 

Of the eight teams (East & West) involved in the play-in tournament, I’ve got Minnesota rated as the best. They were 1-3 SU/ATS head to head vs. LA in the regular season, but the three losses were all before Thanksgiving and that’s a long time ago. They won in LA 122-104 on January 3rd. Since the New Year, the T’wolves are 30-16 SU and they have the fifth best SU record in the league since the All-Star Break. It would be a shame if this team didn’t make the playoffs proper. They are 25-18-1 ATS when favored, so whether or not D’Angelo Russell plays, I’m laying the short number. 10* Minnesota

8* Under Clippers/T’wolves (9:30 ET): Getting this game at home is big for Minnesota, but also for the Under. T’wolves’ games are simply far lower scoring at home than on the road. While their road games average a somewhat stunning 236.6 points per game, at home that number drops down to 221.8. Most of that scoring decline can be traced to the team’s improved play at the defensive end. They allow just 108.4 PPG at home, nearly 10 PPG less than what they allow on the road. They also allow 5.0 PPG less. So I’m going with the Under Tuesday. 

The Clippers have seen a huge uptick in their scoring over the last five games, all of which they won. They’ve averaged 128 PPG during the win streak, which began with a stunning 153-point effort against the Bucks. Shockingly, that was a game where both teams rested star players. Most of the Clippers’ games down the stretch lacked “playoff intensity” as the opponent was either a non-contender (Sacramento, OKC) or had nothing to play for (Phoenix). 

If this O/U line holds, it will be just the second time all season that a Clippers’ game closes with a 230+ point total. So I think there’s value in the Under. Bottom line: the Clippers are due for an “off-night” at the offensive end and I’ve already gone through the huge difference in scoring between Minnesota home and road games. The T’wolves last five opponents have combined to shoot 53.4%, but that’s not going to hold here as they allow a FG% of just 43.7% at home for the year. Keep an eye on the status of PG Russell (illness), obviously. 8* Under Clippers/T’wolves

7* Texas (8:05 ET): Let’s try with the Rangers again as they SHOULD have won yesterday’s home opener vs. the Rockies. Texas took a 3-1 lead after five innings, but then gave it away by allowing one run in the seventh, eighth and ninth. Even worse, the runs allowed in the seventh and eighth innings were both unearned, coming after errors. After tying the game in the bottom of the ninth (Willie Calhoun solo HR), the Rangers then lost in the 10th on a replay review. 

Colorado is now 3-1 after surprisingly taking two of three from the Dodgers to start the season. But let’s not forget that the Rockies have been a dreadful road team for years, so I can’t see them making it B2B wins in Arlington. The series vs. the Dodgers was at Coors Field. Starting tonight for the road team will be Chad Kuhl, whose first 100 big league starts came with the Pirates. He had a 5.92 ERA and 1.515 WHIP in eight road starts last season. I can’t see the Rockies’ bats nor the bullpen continuing to produce the way it has so far either. 

Texas will turn to a familiar face in Martin Perez, who is back for his second stint with the team. After spending his first seven seasons here, Perez spent the last three with the Twins and Red Sox. He’s not a dominant starter, but he is the third straight lefty Colorado will have seen. I expect Perez to pitch well in this spot. He should also get plenty of support from a lineup that has scored 27 runs, second most in MLB, in four games. 7* Texas

10* Toronto (7:05 ET): I called the Blue Jays the better team yesterday, when I took them, and certainly that assessment has not changed after they provided me with an easy 3-0 win over the Yankees in the series opener. The Jays outhit the Yanks 10-4 and the fact they won only scoring three runs should be taken as a positive as this lineup, arguably the best in all of baseball, had produced 20 runs in the first three games. I’m expecting more production at the plate tonight, thus Toronto is once again a 10* call. 

The Blue Jays missed the playoffs last year, despite a 91-71 record, as they finished fourth in the AL East. But there were some underlying metrics that suggested this team was better than both the Yankees and Red Sox, who ended up being the two Wild Card teams. Toronto had a better run differential than both those teams and thus a higher “expected” win total. Coming into 2022, I make the Jays the favorites to win the AL East. Meanwhile, the Yankees had no real significant upgrades to speak of in the offseason. 

The Yankees have scored just seven runs in their last three games and I see them struggling again tonight against Yusei Kikuchi, who makes his first start for the Blue Jays. Kikuchi was Seattle’s lone All-Star selection last season. Though he faltered down the stretch, that wasn’t a good Mariners team he was pitching for. He’ll like the run support he gets in Toronto. Three of the last eight times NY has been shutout, it’s been by the Blue Jays. Jameson Taillon (yesterday) is the only NY starter to make it through five innings so far as the team has fallen behind every game. Tuesday’s starter Nestor Cortes has only faced Toronto once, a 6-4 loss where he allowed two HRs. 10* Toronto

9* NY Mets (6:45 ET): It was a BRUTAL loss last night for the Mets here in Philly as they blew a 4-0 lead by giving up five runs in the home half of the eighth inning. They had taken a 3-0 advantage after the first inning and it looked like that was all they’d need as the Phillies were rather “toothless” at the plate most of the game, producing only four hits through seven innings. But it was not to be as the Mets’ bullpen could not hold the lead. Even worse was an inability to take advantage of three Phillies errors. 

But I like the Mets to bounce back Tuesday behind Tylor Megill, who threw five shutout innings of three-hit ball in his first start of 2022. The Mets won that game (Opening Day) 5-1 over Washington. The team now sits at 3-2 overall after suffering B2B losses. Both Mets’ losses this season have seen the bullpen implode in the eighth inning. I don’t think that’s going to happen again here tonight. Take away the eighth inning of the last two games and Mets’ pitching has permitted just four runs all season!

The Phillies turn to Zack Wheeler tonight. He’s yet to make a start this season after finishing as the runner-up in last year’s Cy Young voting. Wheeler has been dealing with shoulder soreness throughout the Spring and didn’t even make a single Spring Training start. That’s a concern. I really like the Mets, especially at this price, coming off a game they clearly “should have” won. Making this an even bigger revenge spot is the fact the Mets have lost seven of eight to the Phils, despite never allowing more than five runs in any of those games. 9* NY Mets

10* Chelsea (3:00 ET): Chelsea, the reigning UCL Champs, finds itself in a large hole as they trail Real Madrid 3-1 after the first leg. Now, the Blues have certainly proven themselves to be resilient in the past. Case in point; after shipping a stunning seven goals in B2B losses (Real Madrid, Brentford), they came back to smoke Southampton 6-0 in the Premier League over the weekend. While I would not be confident in Chelsea repeating that kind of result on Tuesday, I do like them to at least win at Real Madrid. Take the visitors on the “draw - no bet line.” 

To progress in this competition, Chelsea must erase the two-goal disadvantage from the first leg. That’s going to be extremely hard to do here at the Spanish capital, but winning by a goal is not as tall an order. They have failed to score in only one of the last 15 Champions League matches as the away team. The 6-0 win over Southampton was also the Blues’ seventh in a row away from Stamford Bridge. The number of goals conceded in those B2B losses to Brentford and Real Madrid were highly uncharacteristic for Thomas Tuchel’s club. 

Though Real Madrid won the first leg 3-1, the xG (expected goal difference) was only +0.7, so the match was closer than the final score suggests. Chelsea had the edge in both shots (20-8) and touches in the penalty area (24-8). Los Blancos will be without Eder Militao for the second leg as he’s suspended for picking up a second yellow card. That’s a significant loss for the home side. Can Karim Benzema really keep carrying them the way he has? Remember that Madrid were recently thumped (4-0) by Barcelona in La Liga and also needed a huge comeback of their own to oust PSG in the Round of 16 of this competition. 10* Chelsea

9* San Diego (9:45 ET): The Padres were a big disappointment in 2021, but have started ‘22 with three wins in four games. Really, they should have taken all four from the D’backs, but lost the season opener on a three-run walkoff HR (after shutting Arizona out for the first eight innings). Starting pitching was very solid for SD as it got 13 no-hit innings from Yu Darvish and Sean Manaea, plus three shutout innings from emergency starter Nabil Crismatt yesterday. Up next: the Giants, who won the NL West last season and took two of three to open the year.

The Giants faced Miami on Opening Weekend and didn’t produce a ton of offense, scoring just 10 runs total in the three games. Six of those runs were scored on Opening Day and all three games were decided by one run. SF was outhit in the series, including 11-6 on Sunday. All things considered, the Giants should feel fortunate to have won two of three. After finishing last season at +45.8 units, an astronomical profit, I’ve got SF as a clear regression club for 2022. 

Looking at the NL West this season, the Dodgers are the clear favorites and I think the Padres will outpace the Giants for second and a Wild Card. For today’s series opener, we’ve got Nick Martinez starting for the Padres against Alex Wood for the Giants. Martinez has not pitched in the big leagues since 2017, but is coming off an impressive stint in Japan. Even without Fernando Tatis, the Padres have not struggled to score runs (10 yesterday) and look for them to get to Wood, who is not going to match 2021’s numbers. 9* San  Diego

10* Toronto (7:05 ET): Both the Blue Jays and Yankees had a chance to sweep their opening series on Sunday and each failed. The Blue Jays were 12-6 losers to Texas yesterday. Now they cross the border for the first time, to play a Yankees team that was a 4-3 loser to Boston on Sunday Night Baseball. Though they get to stay at home, the quicker turnaround between series puts the Yankees at a slight disadvantage Monday. Not to mention, they must deal with a Toronto lineup that is arguably the strongest in all of baseball. Look for the visitors to take this series opener. 

It will be 24-year old Alek Manoah going today for Toronto. Last season, in 20 starts, he went 9-2 with a 3.22 ERA and became the first starter in MLB history to start his career by allowing four or fewer hits in 10 consecutive starts. The team was victorious in 16 of those 20 starts, including each of the eight. Manoah started twice against the Yankees last year, both times here in the Bronx, and the Jays won both games. 

The Toronto lineup scored 20 runs in the first three games, which should be a sign of things to come. Look for them to jump on Yankees’ starter Jameson Taillon. The Yankees fell behind the Red Sox in all three games over the weekend with every starter allowing multiple runs before the end of the second inning. I think Toronto is going to be the better team this season, so with the edge in starting pitching and a better lineup, they are an easy call to take this series opener. 10* Toronto

9* Texas (4:05 ET): The Rangers, after pulling off a five-run rally to avoid getting swept on Sunday, now open a short two-game interleague set against Colorado. Don’t let Texas’ 1-2 record fool you; no team has scored more runs this year as the Rangers have crossed the plate 23 times. They were up 7-0 on Toronto on Opening Day. Today is the home opener, which should provide a boost of optimism and you can forget just how dreadful the Rockies were away from home last season. I’ve got the home team winning comfortably here. 

Colorado opened its season by surprisingly taking two of three from the Dodgers. But that was at Coors Field. On the road last year, the Rockies were a horrific 26-54. Their struggles away from home are nothing new and have plagued the franchise throughout its existence. Only Pittsburgh scored fewer runs away from home last season. Even with the DH, I don’t expect the Rockies to put up many runs this afternoon as they only scored 15 runs in the first three games of the young season. 

Taylor Hearn will get the baseball for Texas today. He was 6-6 last year and had a respectable 1.28 WHIP. A big key for the Rangers’ pitchers this year is that they should expect more run support than they got a season ago. In the offseason, the team added Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to the lineup. We’ve already seen an increase in offensive output. Look for it to continue today against Colorado’s Austin Gomber, who had a 4-10 TSR and 6.20 ERA on the road in 2021. 9* Texas

10* Oklahoma City (9:40 ET): The Clippers seem to be on a bit of a roll as they head towards the play-in tournament. They’ve won four straight, the latest coming yesterday when they defeated Sacramento 117-98 as a 12-point favorite. I cashed the Under in that game, a play which was never really in doubt. What is in doubt for today, however, is the Clips’ motivation. This is the second game of a back to back, plus they know they are heading to Minnesota Tuesday for their shot to make the playoffs. I do not think the home team will be in the mindset to win their regular season finale by double digits. 

Meanwhile, I know that the Thunder have NOTHING to play for here, but I also think that makes them a somewhat “dangerous” dog in this spot. As was expected, it was another long season in OKC as the Thunder will finish second to last in the Western Conference, ahead of only Houston. They’ve been blown out in back to back games, but look for there to be a sense of pride here in avoiding that fate a third straight time. There are a good number of Thunder players unavailable, but it’s not like the Clippers are going all out Sunday. 

In three of the last four games, the Clippers have made 20+ three pointers. They were 21 of 43 from behind the arc yesterday. I just can’t see the shots continuing to fall at that high of a percentage, even in a game where defensive intensity may not be at its highest. I am anticipating a disinterested favorite in this one, and laying such a big number makes them a prime fade opportunity. Especially with this being the second night of a back to back. The Clips are just 5-8 SU this season in the 2nd night of a B2B. They may want to win (to finish the reg season above .500), but not by double digits. 10* Oklahoma City

10* Boston (7:08 ET): The Red Sox beat the Yankees in LY’s Wild Card Game, but they’ve had some real difficulty beating their rival in regular season play going back to last season. It’s now eight straight regular season losses to the Yanks following an 0-2 start to 2021. It was an extra inning affair on Opening Day as the Sox lost 6-5 in 11 on a Josh Donaldson walk-off single. That was after scoring three runs in the first inning of NY starter Gerrit Cole. Yesterday again saw the Red Sox open the scoring, taking a 2-0 lead in the second, but it was not to be as they lost 4-2. 

The Red Sox have one more hit than the Yankees in this series. Obviously, the LAST thing they want to do is start the season by getting swept. So I’m loving the price here on the visitors in Sunday’s series finale on ESPN. Boston will hand the baseball to Tanner Houck tonight. Houck both started and came out of the pen last year. He struck out 87 batters in 69 IP and had a 1.13 WHIP. Almost all of the Yankees’ runs scored in this series have come via the HR. As long as Houck keeps the ball in the park, he’ll be in good shape. 

The Yankees counter with Jordan Montgomery, who went 6-7 in 30 starts last season. He made just nine quality starts. Montgomery had mixed results vs. Boston in 2021 with a 2-3 team start record. The heart of the Red Sox has produced in this series, but they got an 0 for 5 day at the plate from their leadoff man yesterday and the bottom three in the order went a combined 0 for 11. Look for better results at the plate tonight. 10* Boston

10* Brentford (9:00 AM ET): What a performance from Brentford last week as the Bees put FOUR goals on the board against Chelsea in a stunning win. Not only was it a huge win over a top three EPL side, but it moved the Bees further away from the relegation zone, nine points clear, and up into 14th place. Really, this side “deserves” to be even higher in the table. They are a shocking eighth in xPts (expected points) coming into the weekend, quite impressive for a club in its first year back in the top flight. It’s another chance to shock one of the top teams on Sunday and I will play Brentford on the “draw - no bet line.”

West Ham currently sits sixth in the table, only three points back of the top four. But what has the Hammers at a slight disadvantage is the fact that everyone else in the top seven has at least a match in hand. I don’t think the spot for the Hammers this week either; they are coming off a 1-1 draw in the Europa League quarterfinals on Thursday (vs. Lyon) and their away form has been poor since the new year. They’ve lost each of their last four away matches (across all competitions) and have not won a Premier League away match since Opening Day! They lost at home earlier in the season to Brentford, 2-1, at London Stadium as well.

Truth be told, West Ham was lucky to escape with a draw midweek as they played with just 10 men the entire second half. Of course, that was after taking advantage of a red card last week against Everton. Also remember that the Hammers have the second leg vs. Lyon looming this week, so Brentford may not have their full attention. That could very well lead to disaster considering Brentford has now won three of four with 10 goals scored in league play. Brentford always plays better at home and they are healthier than they’ve been in a while. Look for them to capture all three points Sunday. 10* Brentford - Draw No Bet

8* Crystal Palace Goal Line (9:00 AM ET): Crystal Palace still has a lot to play for: a top half finish in the Premier League and they are in the semifinals of the FA Cup. A win in the FA Cup (no small task as the other three sides remaining are Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea) would guarantee European football next season. Regardless if they can win that competition, the Eagles are probably deserving of a top half finish in the league front. They enter the weekend 9th in xPts and at +4, aren’t all that fair off from the teams chasing the European places in the table. It’s been nearly a month since I last took CP; the day they earned points against Man City in a 0-0 draw. I’ll take them here on the goal line.

It’s been a remarkable run of form lately for Crystal Palace as they haven’t conceded a single goal in any of their last four matches. That includes the aforementioned 0-0 draw against Man City and also three wins (over Wolverhampton, Everton and Arsenal). Last week’s 3-0 demolition of top four chasers Arsenal was as impressive as it gets. The Eagles are now unbeaten in their last seven across all competitions with five wins. So you can see why the goal line is such an attractive option here. It was a 2-2 draw when they faced Leicester City earlier this season. 

These two sides are actually level with 37 points, but while CP has four more goals than what they’ve conceded, Leicester is just the opposite, having shipped four more than they’ve scored. It’s also a tough spot here for Leicester, coming off a goalless draw midweek in the Europa Conference League (with PSV), which is their main concern right now. The Foxes have now won just once in their last five competitions as they drew with Man U (1-1) in the league last week. European fatigue could be very real here for the Foxes. 8* Crystal Palace Goal Line

10* Under Fiorentina/Napoli (9:00 AM ET): Napoli does not own the best goal differential in Serie A (reigning Scudetto holders Inter Milan does), but the Partenopei are closer to the summit than Inter is, just one point behind AC Milan entering Sunday. Napoli has not finished first in Serie A since 1990, so this title pursuit is quite serious. They come into this fixture with Fiorentina on a three-match win streak, but have actually won only three of their last eight at home. Fiorentina figures to be a tough test here. 

Fiorentina is also in the mix for European football next season as they are currently eighth in the table. While catching the top four is probably out of the question, they are just two points back of finishing sixth, which would mean Europa League qualifying. The Viola have taken 14 points from their last seven matches and are coming off a 1-0 win over Empoli last week. 

Though Fiorentina has conceded in each of their last 11 matches away from home and Napoli has scored at least twice in each of the last three meetings, I look for this to be a relatively low-scoring fixture. These are the top two teams in possession in Serie A. Napoli has conceded the fewest goals this season and Fiorentina allows the fewest shots per 90 minutes. Fiorentina has also conceded no more than one goal in each of its last five competitions with two clean sheets. Pace should be slow here. 10* Under Fiorentina/Napoli

10* Under Kings/Clippers (9:40 ET): With three games still to play, the Clippers are already locked into the 8-seed in the Western Conference. They know that they’ll be facing the T’wolves in the play-in tournament with the winner moving on to the playoffs proper. The loser will get a second chance against the Pelicans-Spurs winner. Sacramento, as per usual, fell out of contention long ago. It’s all about pride for them at this point, but they’ve shown little of that lately with B2B double digit losses at home.

The Kings actually haven’t played since Tuesday when they fell 123-109 to New Orleans. They shot 51% from the field, but it wasn’t enough as they allowed the Pelicans to shoot the same percentage with more attempts. I don’t think we’ll see that kind of combined shooting in this game. Sacramento is without De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, who are their top two scorers.

These division rivals haven’t met since December when they played three times. This total is much higher than any of those three previous meetings. The total number of points scored across the three meetings decreased every game, culminating with only 194 being scored in the last one. The Clippers, who are due for some offensive regression, have also held their last two opponents to a combined FG% below 40.0. Both of these teams are in the bottom seven in offensive efficiency. 10* Under Kings/Clippers

8* LA Angels (9:07 ET): I’m “switching sides” in this AL West weekend series. Last night, I cashed the Astros as my 10* AL West Game of the Month and they romped to 13-6 victory. However, that score was actually a bit misleading as the teams were nearly even in hits (14-13 edge to the Astros), but the difference was an eight-run explosion by the road team in the top of the seventh. The Angles very nearly went up 3-1 in the first, but had a runner thrown out at the plate. Now 0-2 on the young season, the home team is pretty desperate. I’ll call for them to get their first ‘W’ of 2022 here. 

We have a very interesting starting pitching matchup for tonight. It’s Justin Verlander vs. Noah Syndergaard. A few years ago, this would have been considered a battle of Cy Young candidates. But Verlander didn’t pitch at all last season (Tommy John surgery) and Syndergaard only made two 2021 starts after missing all of 2020 for the same reason (Tommy John). I know it’s difficult to put faith in either starter here, but I’m giving the nod to Syndergaard. 

Yes, I went with the Astros Friday, but here the pitching matchup isn’t so clearly in their favor. Coming off an embarrassing loss and needing a win over the next two games to avoid what would be an embarrassing four-game sweep to start the year, the Angels are a good value here. Ohtani and Trout went a combined 1 for 8 at the plate yesterday and you’ve got to figure they’ll do better tonight. 8* LA Angels

10* Cleveland (4:10 ET): Cleveland will be looking to win its first game as the “Guardians” as they continue their series with Kansas City Saturday afternoon. These teams opened the season on Thursday (yday was an off-day) with the Royals prevailing 3-1. The Guardians actually outhit KC, 7-5, but fell victim to a two-run double from Royals’ rookie Bobby Witt in the bottom of the eighth that was the difference in the game. I believe the road team bounces back in this spot.

Cleveland was 14-5 vs. Kansas City last season and is still 10-4 its last 14 games at Kauffman Stadium. They’ll be sending Zach Plesac to the bump Saturday afternoon. He started three times vs. the Royals in 2021 and had a 2-1 TSR. Considering that the Royals had just three hits through seven innings on Thursday, I think it’s quite reasonable to expect Plesac to pitch well in this spot. He threw seven shutout innings of two-hit ball (no walks) in one of his starts in this park last season. 

The Guardians’ hitting remains a big question mark entering the 2022 season. But look for them to get to Brad Keller, who will be Saturday’s starter for Kansas City. Keller is coming off a pretty brutal 2021 that saw him post a 5.45 ERA and 1.668 WHIP. He had just nine quality starts (in 26 trips to the mound) and his record at home was 2-6. This is a good price on Cleveland as they look for their first win of the season. 10* Cleveland

10* Union Berlin (12:30 ET): There are very different goals for the two sides in the Berlin derby this Saturday. FC Union Berlin currently sits seventh in the Bundesliga table, as it’s been a very good 2021/22 season, and they are only three points adrift of Europa League qualifying for next season. They are also still alive in the DFB-Pokal, so FCUB fans have to be feeling like their chances of European football next season are strong. There’s a lot to play for over the next two months and the club came out of the international break by picking up a huge 1-0 win over Koln last weekend. Union now is FIFTH in xPts (expected points), so they are a worthy European challenger despite a -4 YTD goal differential. 

As for Hertha, they are simply struggling to survive in the German top flight. Entering Saturday, they sit 17th in the table (based on GD with Arminia Bielefeld), which would mean automatic relegation to the Bundesliga 2 for next season. Only Greuther Furth has a worse YTD goal differential than Hertha’s -33. Recent form suggests relegation is a very real possibility for this once proud side, which is already on its third manager of the season! The “new manager bounce” did result in a shocking 3-0 win over Hoffenheim right before the international break, however that is Hertha’s only points earned over its L7 matches. In each of the six losses, they have conceded multiple goals.

Because Union Berlin only returned to the top flight in 2019, this derby has been played infrequently; just nine times since 1963! But Union will be gunning to make it THREE wins over their capital rivals this season as they beat them 2-0 in the reverse back in November, scoring both goals in the opening 30 minutes. Then, more recently, came a 3-2 win in the DFB-Pokal quarterfinals. Don’t think for a second that Union isn’t relishing the opportunity to pull an ultra-rare triple over Hertha and possibly knock them out of the Bundesliga for next season. Union possesses several matchup advantages in this fixture, so I will take them on the “draw-no bet line” (meaning a draw would count as a “push” not a loss. I expect Union to get all three points though. 10* Union Berlin - Draw No Bet

9* Houston (9:38 ET): Guess it’s a case of an “early season discount,” but I’m not entirely sure why the Astros (the AL West favorites) are priced like this against the Angels. Houston won yesterday, 3-1, as the Halos managed just four hits and six total bases. It was the Astros’ 10th consecutive win on Opening Day, matching a major league record. I look for them to make it two straight wins to open the season. 

Jake Odorizzi will get the nod here for the road team. Odorizzi had just two quality starts last season, but finished well with a 2.93 ERA his L7. I expect him to get more run support than Framber Valdez did last night. Let’s not forget that the Astros are clearly the best team in this division this season. They only won the pennant by five games LY, but had a +205 run differential and no other AL West team was better than +56 and that was Oakland, who tore their roster down in the offseason. 

The Angels always seem overvalued because Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani are on the roster. Ohtani pitched yesterday and pitched well, but it still wasn’t enough. Trout was 1 for 4 with a ninth inning single in his first game after missing the final 4 ½ months of last season due to injury. Friday starter Patrick Sandoval was worse at home than he was on the road in 2021, posting just one win all season in Anaheim. Houston beat him the lone time they saw him. By the way, Odorizzi has a 1.64 ERA here at Angels Stadium. 9* Houston

10* Over Wizards/Knicks (7:10 ET): Consider this a “battle for 11th place” in the Eastern Conference, although that’s a relatively meaningless distinction as you need to finish top 10 to qualify for the play-in round. So it’s little more than “pride” on the line Friday night when the Knicks and Wizards take the court. These teams have met two times previously this season. The first was on X-Mas Day and they blew past the total (208) with the Wiz winning 124-117 as 2.5-point underdogs. The total was much higher for the rematch last month (225.5) and that time they didn’t come close to matching it as the Knicks won 100-97. 

Now this play is a departure from the last time I played the total with the Knicks, which was just two days ago when they lost to the Knicks 110-98. That didn’t even come close to going Over as the number closed at 230. Glad I had the Under then. The Under is now 6-1 in the Knicks’ last seven games as they remain one of the lowest scoring teams in the NBA. But here they’re matched up with a team that plays little to no defense. Washington is allowing 117.8 PPG over its last five contests and like the Knicks, the O/U line for the Wizards’ last game was much higher than this one. So was the previous game, for that matter. 

Washington had gone Over in four straight before losing to Atlanta 118-103 on Wednesday. Now that final score would have obviously gone over this total. The previous four Wizards’ games all saw a minimum of 237 total points scored. In four of their last seven games, they have scored 123+ pts. Expect the Knicks to shoot better here than they did on Wednesday (just 38.6%) when they scored just 31 points in the second half. The Over is 7-1 the L8 times NY has been off a DD loss at home. The Wizards will shoot better from three tonight compared to the Atlanta game when they were just 10 of 35. They also attempted only 11 free throws in that game. They are 9-1 Over L10 home games. 10* Over Wizards/Knicks

8* Run Line Baltimore (3:10 ET): Please note that this play is on the run line, which means I am backing the Orioles +1.5. Last season, Baltimore finished an incomprehensible 1-18 head to head vs. Tampa Bay. That accounted for nearly one-third of the 48-game difference in the standings between the two AL East clubs (first and last). But now it’s a new season and we might as well give the O’s a try while there’s still a hint of optimism in the air. Their best pitcher is on the mound Opening Day and I expect the O’s to do no worse than a one-run loss here. 

 So we’re going to rely heavily on Orioles’ starter John Means in this one. Means posted respectable numbers for a last place team in 2021, particularly on the road where he had a 2.84 ERA and 0.899 WHIP.  He had an 0-5 team start record vs. TB last season. But again, I think this is a great early season opportunity to back the underdog as their long overdue for a win over their AL East rival and Means should keep the Rays’ offense in check. The bullpen can only get better. 

The Rays send Shane McClanahan to the bump on Friday. He had a 4-0 TSR vs. Baltimore in 2021. But note Means had the slightly lower WHIP and the two lefties had comparable ERAs. Not surprisingly, the Orioles had the worst record in one-run games in the AL. They are probably due for some better results in that regard this season, but just to be safe I’ll stick with the RL. Means was a much better pitcher in the 1H of last season, posting a 2.28 ERA before the All-Star Break. 8* Run Line Baltimore

8* Wolverhampton Goal Line (3:00 ET): The Wolves are very much in the mix for European football next season as - coming off a 2-1 home success over Aston Villa last time out - they sit just five points back of fourth (Champions League) and only two points back of sixth (Europa League). So a win here would move them into sixth position, ahead of both West Ham and Manchester United, although those two sides would have one and two matches in hand respectively. While I think a top four finish is stretching it, the Wolves will certainly be motivated here and I like them to claim at least a point against slumping Newcastle United on Friday.

To be clear, by playing the goal line here, all we need is a draw from the Wolves to have ourselves a winning bet. Now I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the Wolves get the win and claim all three points either. They won the reverse fixture 2-1 at Molineux back in October. However, the previous five encounters between these two sides in Premier League action all ended with the same 1-1 scoreline. I’ll take that here. Another key is the Wolves have the fourth best away record in the EPL this season. Only Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea have been better on their travels.

Newcastle did win six of their seven Premier League matches from Jan 22 to March 10, likely saving them from relegation, but recently the Magpies have hit the skids with three consecutive defeats. They conceded five times last week to Tottenham and have the fourth worst defensive record in the league. Meanwhile, the Wolves have conceded the fourth fewest goals this term. Therefore, it certainly doesn’t help that Newcastle’s leading scorer Callum Wilson is out injured. I’ve said before that Wolverhampton is a bit fortunate to be so high in the table, but they are being drastically underrated in this spot against a side that is still 18th in the league in xPts (expected points). 8* Wolverhampton Goal Line

10* Over Padres/D’backs (9:45 ET): New for 2022 is a universal DH across Major League Baseball. So no more pitchers coming up to the plate in National League games. Theoretically, that should lead to an increase in scoring across the Senior Circuit. Time to put this theory to the test on Opening Day when the Padres take on the D’backs. San Diego was a big disappointment last season, finishing 79-83. They were SUPPOSED to compete with the Dodgers for the NL West pennant. Meanwhile, no one expected much from Arizona in 2021 and sure enough the D’backs lost 110 games. Only the Pirates and Orioles had worse run differentials. 

I am expecting the Padres to bounce back this year and earn a Wild Card spot (remember there are now THREE WC spots up for grabs). They actually had a positive run differential (+21) last season, so they were better than their record. Offensively, they weren’t where they wanted to be, but they did finish top 10 in OBP. Now Fernando Tatis Jr suffered a wrist fracture and will miss three months, which is a significant blow. But I still expect San Diego to put plenty of runs on the board here as Madison Bumgarner (who they know well), tonight’s starter for Arizona, has seen better days. 

Arizona gave up the most runs in the NL (893) last season and second most in MLB (only Baltimore allowed more). Bumgarner had a rough finish (1-6 TSR final seven starts) and ended up with a 4.67 ERA. Now we’re also going to need the D’backs to score some runs tonight and thankfully they’re up against Yu Darvish, who also had a poor finish to 2021 and was much worse on the road than he was at Petco Park. Darvish started twice at Chase Field last season and those outings did NOT go well (both went Over) as he allowed a total of 10 runs and lasted just 2 ⅔ IP each time. 10* Over Padres/D’backs

10* Denver (9:10 ET): This is a critical game for the Nuggets, who need one win in their last two games to avoid falling into the play-in round. On Tuesday, they blew their first chance at clinching with a horrendous effort here at home, losing 116-97 to short-handed San Antonio, a game where the Nuggets closed as nine-point favorites! In addition to trying to avoid the play-in round, Denver can still move up to fifth in the West. That would be advantageous as it’s likely Golden State will finish third and the Nuggets would like to avoid them seeing as Steph Curry is expected back for the start of the playoffs. 

Not only did Denver shoot itself in the foot Tuesday night, their task of moving up the standings was made more difficult when both Dallas and Utah (the two teams in front of them) both won. The Nuggets can no longer earn home court advantage in the first round, but like I said earlier they can pass Utah and move into fifth. The current gap between the Jazz and Nuggets is one game. I see Denver being tremendously motivated to win on Thursday; not just for playoff seeding purposes, but they are also 0-3 this season vs. Memphis, so there’s some revenge in the Rocky Mountain air tonight. 

The Grizzlies team that takes the floor this evening won’t really resemble the one that’s previously beaten the Nuggets three teams. Already locked into the 2-seed in the West, the Grizzlies are letting several injured players rest, most notably Ja Morant. The Grizz have a shockingly good SU record w/o Morant so far, but Brooks, Tillie and Terry are also all out and the team could not overcome all the absences Tuesday (when we faded them) in an OT loss at Utah. I don’t see Memphis’ intensity matching Denver’s tonight. Despite being 0-3 SU vs. the Grizz in 2021-22, the Nuggets led at the half in all three games. 10* Denver

9* Over Magic/Hornets (7:10 ET): I don’t expect much defense to be played in this Thursday NBA tilt. Certainly Charlotte hasn’t been playing good defense recently. They’ve allowed 144 points in B2B games, which is absolutely abysmal yet this is the team with the worst scoring defense in the Eastern Conference. The Hornets allow 115.1 PPG for the season, so they should feel rather fortunate to be heading for the play-in tournament next week where they’ll likely have to win twice. Of course, being a top five team offensively (114.8 PPG) is why they’ve still got a shot at making the playoffs. 

Orlando just hung 120 on Cleveland Tuesday in an admittedly uncharacteristic show of offensive strength. The Magic will NOT be heading to the postseason this year; in fact they’re all but guaranteed at finishing in the basement of the Eastern Conference. That win over Cleveland snapped a six-game losing streak and came on the heels of two sorry offensive efforts where they failed to score 90 points in consecutive games. We probably can’t count on the Magic scoring 120 again tonight, but consider their defense is lousy (112.0 PPG allowed this season) and five of their last seven opponents have scored at least 114. 

Whomever the road team has been, they have won the previous three head to head meetings this season. After losing to the Hornets twice at home early in the season, the Magic returned the favor with a 116-109 win here in Charlotte back in January (as 11-point underdogs!) While the Magic are not an offensive juggernaut, it should be pointed out that the Hornets have allowed the last two opponents to shoot 59% from the field overall and make 44 three-pointers. On average, no other team in the league plays higher scoring games than Charlotte (229.9 PPG). 9* Over Magic/Hornets

10* Barcelona (3:00 ET): Big mismatch here in the quarterfinals of the Europa League where La Liga flagbearer Barcelona takes on Bundesliga side Eintracht Frankfurt. The former is having a much better season on the domestic front where it is now in a three-way tie for second (with Sevilla and Atletico). Meanwhile, Eintracht Frankfurt has slipped this season in the Bundesliga, down to ninth after finishing fifth last season. While Frankfurt remains unbeaten across its last six competitions, Barca has done even better, not tasting defeat in their last 13 trips onto the pitch and they have come out ahead in eight of their last nine.

Barcelona was also far more impressive in the last round of the Europa League, progressing 2-1 on aggregate over Galatasaray. That lone goal conceded in the second leg is the ONLY goal conceded by Barca over the last five fixtures. Remember that they annihilated Real Madrid in El Clasico right before the International Break, then came back to defeat Sevilla 1-0 this past weekend. If that’s not enough, they’ve come out on top each of the last five away fixtures, scoring multiple goals every time.

Meanwhile, Frankfurt may be unbeaten in six straight competitions, but they have had to share the points in each of the last three. They are off B2B goalless draws, including a very disappointing one this past weekend vs. Greuther Furth, the side that sits at the foot of the Bundesliga table. I don’t think Frankfurt has been all that impressive on the domestic front this season as they rank just 13th in xPts (expected points). Also, they were certainly fortunate to progress last round here in the Europa League as they needed an own goal from Real Betis at the end of added time to get here. I know Frankfurt hasn’t been beaten yet in the Europa League this campaign, but that changes Thursday. 10* Barcelona

8* Milwaukee (2:20 ET): The Brewers come into the 2022 season as the consensus choice to win the National League Central. They won the pennant last season (95-67), but unfortunately ran into a hot Atlanta team at the wrong team in the LDS. This season begins with a trip to Wrigley Field, to face a Cubs team that projects as the third best team in the division. The Brew Crew had little trouble with the Cubbies last year, taking 15 of the 19 head to head matchups, and I expect more of the same here on Opening Day.

The Cubs finished fourth in the NL Central last season, 24 games back of the Brewers. They were outscored by 134 runs. Only the Pirates and D’backs, two last place teams, got beat up worse. Any upward mobility in the standings this year would only be because of Cincinnati, last year’s third place finisher, regressing. Most projection systems have the Cubs finishing with a losing record; they have all the makings of a 75-win team that will be out of contention by September, if not before.

The Brew Crew may have the best starting rotation in the majors and it’s anchored by last year’s Cy Young Award winner, Corbin Burnes, who gets the baseball Thursday afternoon. Burnes led all of MLB in ERA, FIP and KW ratio last season. He had 58 strikeouts before issuing a single walk. He handled the Cubs with a 3-0 TSR, allowing just three runs in 20 IP and 36 strikeouts. All three runs came the third time he faced them. The Cubs have a weak lineup this year and starter Kyle Hendricks won’t match Burnes on Opening Day. Hendricks had a 5.24 ERA at home in 2021 and had a 1-3 TSR vs. Milwaukee. 8* Milwaukee

10* Under Celtics/Bulls (8:10 ET): Boston has been scoring A LOT of points recently. They are coming off a 144-point effort (against Washington) on Sunday (I won with the Over) and before that won 128-123 over Indiana. Robert Williams is out (until at least the second round of the playoffs), but the Celtics certainly haven’t skipped a beat offensively as they shot a blistering 61.5% vs. the Wizards and made 23 three-pointers! They can’t possibly repeat that performance tonight in Chicago as it’s a “packed” injury report for this evening. Brown, Tatum and Horford are probable. But, in addition to Williams, Morgan and Stauskas are also out. Look for some serious offensive regression from the C’s tonight. 

I say that knowing full well how the Bulls have struggled defensively the last few games, and really the entire second half of the season. Chicago has given up 127+ points in each of its last three games, including a 127-106 loss last night to Milwaukee here at home. Lonzo Ball’s season is likely over with, but it’s not all bad for the Bulls as they did clinch a top six spot in the playoffs (due to Cleveland losing), so they’ll avoid the play-in tournament. But this team has little “momentum” (still hate that word) heading into the postseason. I’d argue they are the weakest of the 10 teams still viable in the East 

Seeding is all that’s on the line for these two teams in the last few remaining games. Chicago is expected to get Zach LaVine back after he sat out last night. But, other than DeMar DeRozan, the rest of LaVine’s teammates did very little against Milwaukee. Take away DeRozan’s numbers and the Bulls shot just 36% last night. Boston is #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and allows only 104.3 PPG. They are 8-2 Under this season when playing on exactly two days' rest. The Bulls are 4-0 Under their L4 times in a back to back. 10* Under Celtics/Bulls.

8* Under Nets/Knicks (7:40 ET): I’m going with the Nets Under again after cashing that particular wager last night. The total closed at a very high 244.5 last night vs. Houston, a season-high for the Nets. The O/U result was never really in doubt as the game ended 118-105 in Brooklyn’s favor. That was a needed win for the Nets, who are looking to finish 8th in the East as that would mean they’d only need to win once in the play-in tournament (which they are now guaranteed to be a part of). It’s another also-ran on the docket for tonight as the Nets will face a Knicks team that is eliminated from playoff contention.

New York hasn’t played since Sunday - when they crushed Orlando 118-88 in an utterly meaningless game. So they’ll have the significant rest advantage coming into this game. Despite losing all three times, the Knicks have played the Nets tough this year as the three losses have been by a combined 10 points, none greater than five. Also, the most combined points in any of the games was 222. Tonight’s O/U line is notably higher than any of the three previous meetings. Now Kyrie Irving, coming off a 42-point game last night is now in the mix. But let’s see how he does in a rare back to back. My guess is that he won’t be as prolific as last night. He’d shot just 26% the previous five games.

The Nets are also short-handed right now without Curry, Dragic and Johnson. (Note: there is a chance Dragic and/or Johnson could suit up). This team has been really bad on the second night of a back to back this season, going just 2-11 SU and averaging 106.7 PPG. The Knicks are one of the league’s lowest scoring teams at 106.5 PPG (27th) and also are tied for 27th in pace. For both teams, the Under is 5-1 in their last six games. 8* Under Nets/Knicks

6* Mainz (12:30 ET): This is a huge fixture for Mainz, who can go level with Union Berlin for seventh place in the Bundesliga and thus be only three points out of the European places. Mainz would be ahead of Union on goal differential, somewhat significantly, as they come into Wednesday still sporting a +9 YTD GD after drawing with Gladbach (1-1) on Sunday (Union Berlin is sporting a -4 GD). If you recall, I took Mainz on the goal line (+0.5) Sunday, so they were a winner on this end. Since the start of February, Mainz has only been beaten twice and one of those losses (1-0 to Dortmund) was a bad break. 

Mainz was actually my 10* Game of the Month on Sunday. That aforementioned goal differential is one of the reasons I’m a big believer in this side. Only the top five sides currently sport a better GD in the league. They are 7th in xPts (expected points). Prior to earning the draw at Gladbach, Mainz had whipped Arminia Bielefeld 4-0 before the international break. They also had a win over third place Leverkusen back in February. The bottom line is that I see the 05ers as being a lot stronger than their current 10th place standing shows. I also think that they are due for an away win. 

Coming off a surprisingly impressive 3-0 win over Wolfsburg, Augsburg will fancy its chances of making it B2B league wins as they are back on home soil where they have lost only one of their last six. But Augsburg has not won two straight league fixtures at any point this season! They too are desperate for a win, as they are only three points clear of the relegation zone, however this just isn’t a strong club. Die Fuggerstadter are third from the bottom in the league in xPts and have the third highest xGA (expected goals allowed). Back in October’s reverse fixture, it was all Mainz in a 4-1 thrashing. I expect them to make it a league double. 6* Mainz

8* Under Spurs/Nuggets (9:10 ET): A San Antonio team that has actually outscored its opponents this season (despite being 12 games below .500!) deserves to make the play-in round. After winning six of seven, the Spurs are now 10th in the West, two games up on the floundering Lakers. The remaining schedule will not be easy though; as they face four of the top six teams in the Conference. The status of leading scorer Dejounte Murray (illness) remains in question for tonight. While the Spurs won their last game without him, they won’t have the luxury of facing Portland again here on Tuesday.

While the Spurs are simply trying to scrape their way into the play-in tournament, the Nuggets are hoping to avoid that exercise entirely. Denver is currently fifth, two games up on seventh place Minnesota. All they are looking to do is finish in the top six. Led by reigning MVP Nikola Jokic, points have been plentiful of late as the Nuggets have scored 125+ points in five of the last seven games. The Over is 8-2 the L10 games. But the shooting we’ve seen from them over the L3 games (62.5%, 53.5% and 57.3%) is certainly due to subside. For the year, their games average 222.3 PPG, which is well below tonight’s O/U line. 

San Antonio hopes to have both Murray and Jakob Poeltl back in the lineup tonight. Regardless, I don’t think the Spurs will keep scoring at the level we’ve seen recently. They’ve gotten to face Portland three times in the last seven games, not to mention Houston (who is 30th in scoring defense). The Under is 16-5 in the Spurs’ last 21 games following an ATS win and 6-1 the L7 times they’ve been off a double digit win. As I already mentioned, Denver is unlikely to keep up its FG% from the L3 games, so I’m rolling with the Under on this high total. 8* Under Spurs/Nuggets

8* Utah (9:10 ET): This is a huge game for the Jazz, who have fallen to sixth in the Western Conference despite having the league’s fourth best point differential. They have lost six of their last seven games, also going 1-6 ATS (0-7 ATS for some, depending on the result of the game against the Lakers). An inability to hold big leads has cost Utah dearly this season as Sunday marked the 15th time they had a double digit lead and lost. That was to a Steph Curry-less Warriors team and they were up by as many as 21 before losing 111-107. I am expecting a big bounce back performance from the Jazz, at home, here tonight. 

The last time Utah was off a stunning loss like what happened Sunday, I took them the next time out and they covered for me. That was against the Lakers as I had the Jazz -12 and they won 122-109. Here, the line is a lot shorter. While that’s for good reason (Memphis is very good), the opponent has nothing to play for on Tuesday. The Grizzlies are already locked into the second seed for the playoffs and will also be playing short-handed. Not only is Ja Morant out, but five other players are listed as questionable on the injury report, including Tillie, Bane, Jackson, Adams and Jones.

Having to worry about 7th place Minnesota (1.5 games back) will have the Jazz supremely motivated for this one. It would be almost incomprehensible for the Jazz to fall into the play-in tournament. I still have them rated as a top five team in the league. I think their goal would be to avoid the Warriors (who are currently third) in the first round, so finishing fifth would have its benefits. I know Memphis has won seven straight and 10 of 11, but Utah will be the more motivated team on Tuesday, especially after blowing that big lead Sunday, so I am laying the points. The Jazz outscore teams by nearly 10 PPG at home this season. 8* Utah

10* Under Rockets/Nets (7:40 ET): This is an absurdly high total, even for a matchup of the team that plays the worst defense in the NBA (Houston) and one of the more prolific offensive squads (Brooklyn). We’ve obviously seen some high scoring games involving the Nets recently. However, with these high totals, the Under is actually 4-1 their L5 games. Only one of those five contests would have gone Over tonight’s total, which is the highest O/U line yet for a Nets game this season! I’m taking the Under here. 

Even Houston having given up an average of 120.6 points over its last five games doesn’t have me too concerned here. For the season, they give up 118.1, most in the league. The last four games have all gone Over, but that’s with the Rockets averaging over 120 PPG themselves, which is well above their season average. For the year, the team is averaging 107.4 PPG on the road. So I expect some real offensive regression from the road team in this one. In their last game, they shot 56.5% from the field. That won’t happen again here. The Rockets are 17-4 Under after a game where they scored 130+ points, including 3-0 this season. 

 Speaking of “offensive regression,” Brooklyn’s Kevin Durant will not be matching his scoring output from Saturday’s game in Atlanta where he had 55 points (in a loss!). The Nets also could be without Seth Curry, Bruce Brown and Goran Dragic for tonight’s game. Kyrie Irving is shooting just 26.6% his L5 games. As a team, Brooklyn averages fewer PPG at home than on the road. On the bright side, the Nets won’t be sending Houston to the free throw line 49 times like they did against Atlanta. The Nets should win this one easily and the game likely being a blowout should mean fewer points in the fourth quarter, helping our cause. 10* Under Rockets/Nets

10* Under Atletico Madrid/Manchester City (3:00 ET): Atletico Madrid won’t be repeating as La Liga champions this season, but they are in the final eight of the Champions League, facing reigning Premier League champion Manchester City. Atletico ousted Manchester United from this competition in the Round of 16, winning 1-0 at Old Trafford to progress 2-1 on aggregate. Making it successive wins over a Premier League side would be quite the accomplishment for Diego Simeone’s side. They are away for the first leg, thus I’m expecting a relatively cautious approach from them. But I don’t think Atletico is going to concede multiple goals either. They sure haven’t lately. 

Man City has a huge showdown on deck this weekend in the EPL where they will welcome Liverpool here to Etihad Stadium with first place on the line. So, believe it or not, this Champions League tie may not have the Citizens’ full attention. While they made it to the Final of this competition last season (lost to Chelsea), the previous three years all saw Man City ousted in the round of eight. But, as is the case with Atletico, the one thing I am confident in here with Man City is that they won’t be conceding multiple goals here either. They’ve conceded an EPL-low 18 goals this season and in the Round of 16 of this competition, Man City didn’t concede a single goal to Sporting CP. 

While Man City did score five times in the away leg vs. Sporting, it was a 0-0 draw here at the Etihad. Atletico is second in xGA (expected goals allowed) in La Liga and has conceded no more than one goal in each of the last four UCL fixtures. City created only 2.9 xG (expected goals) in the two legs vs. Sporting. Again, Atletico is likely to play cautiously here and be willing to take the draw as the second leg is in Madrid. The pace of this match should be quite slow with City dominating possession, but not creating many scoring chances. 10* Under Atletico Madrid/Manchester City

10* Kansas (9:20 ET): Ok. As previously noted, only one of the previous 20 NCAAB National Champions (2014 UConn) didn’t rank in the top 25 in BOTH offensive and defensive efficiency in the KenPom ratings. The Jayhawks are the team that fits the bill here in 2022 as they are sixth in offensive efficiency and 17th in defensive efficiency. So if the trend holds, then Bill Self will bring another title to Lawrence. North Carolina has been a tremendous story, ending Coach K’s run on Saturday, but they were an 8-seed coming into this Tournament and 39th in defensive efficiency. I’m laying the points Monday night. 

Though their lead was cut to six in the second half, I never sensed Kansas was in any real danger Saturday night against Villanova. They raced out to a 10-0 lead to start the game and were up 38-19 before halftime. While ‘Nova was without Justin Moore, beating them wire to wire is a real feather in the cap for the Jayhawks, who have been incredible defensively in this tournament, holding all five opponents below 40% shooting. Only Villanova shot better than 36% from the floor. 

I mentioned earlier that KU got to face Villanova without Justin Moore. Here they’ll get UNC with a hobbled Armando Bacot. Bacot is the Tar Heels’ leading scorer and rebounder. He’s third in the country in rebounding. Hubert Davis doesn’t have a lot of depth down low, so an injured Bacot is certainly ill-timed. He’s going to play, but won’t be 100 percent and was clearly bothered by the injured ankle in the second half vs. Duke. It honestly shocks me that UNC has made it thus far and they easily could have lost three of their last four games. Kansas has been the better team all season and it would be downright stunning to me if they didn’t win here. 10* Kansas

8* Under Bologna/AC Milan (2:45 ET): AC Milan will enter matchday 31 level with Napoli (66 points) for first place in Serie A. So any points will put them back on the table here. (It should also be noted that Inter could within three of the summit, depending on how they fare Sunday vs. Juventus. That result was not final as of press time). The Red & Blacks have not won the Scudetto since 2011, but they come into April in fine form, having won three straight in the league by the same 1-0 score. Milan defeated Napoli, Empoli and Cagliari during that time. Napoli was obviously a huge win while taking the full three points from the other two was certainly expected. It’s another opponent from the bottom half of the table Monday.

In my analysis for Saturday’s 10* Game of the Week winner on Torino, I spoke of the gap that exists in goal differential between the top 11 and bottom nine in Serie A. Bologna is on the wrong side of the gap, now in 13th, after Udinese won yesterday. It has been a poor run of form for the Red and Blues in 2022 as they have just one win since Dec 22! Over their last 10 matches, Bologna has lost seven times and scored a total of just five goals. They were goalless in March, but on the bright side they conceded only twice in the last three matches. 

When it comes to goal scoring, Bologna has been especially reliant on set pieces this season. They figure to not get many opportunities here against AC Milan, who have conceded the fourth fewest number of goals in Serie A this season after not conceding a single time in March. But Bologna is no defensive pushover; their defensive record is in the top half of the league. One thing I find interesting is that only 23 of AC Milan’s 56 goals this season have come here at San Siro. But Bologna has only 14 goals on its travels. 8* Under Bologna/AC Milan

10* Cleveland (6:10 ET): Here we’ve got two Eastern Conference playoff teams in the second game of a back to back. Both won yesterday afternoon. Philadelphia blew out Charlotte 144-114. Cleveland was a 119-101 winner in New York. At this point, the 76ers are just trying to ensure they finish in the top four and have home court advantage for the first round. They are 2.5 games behind top seed Miami. The Cavaliers’ current standing is more perilous as they are facing the prospect of the play-in round. They’ve fallen to 7th place and are two games back of sixth place Chicago. 

I think the Cavs, at home, will want this one more. There’s obviously a huge benefit to finishing in the top six. Philly is going to be in the top four and that’s all that they care about. James Harden and Joel Embiid may both sit tonight. The Cavs will definitely be without Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, but that’s not as significant as Harden and Embiid. The real key for Cleveland is getting back to the kind of defense we saw from them in the first half of the season. At home, they are giving up just 103.2 PPG, third fewest in the league. I think we’ll see a strong effort at the defensive end here. 

The Cavs are 0-3 SU vs. the Sixers this year, including a pair of losses in March. But for this triple revenge spot, they are getting points at home and I like that. Philadelphia had lost three in a row before yesterday’s win. In the last two meetings, Cleveland led by eight at the half the first time and then only lost by four the second time. Fingers crossed that Harden and/or Embiid sits, but either way I like Cleveland getting points in this matchup, which is quite critical for them. They are top six in the East in net efficiency and point differential. 10* Cleveland

8* Over Wizards/Celtics (1:10 ET): I believe Boston is the favorite to come out of the Eastern Conference (for the NBA Finals), but for now the team is going to miss Robert Williams, who was one of their best defenders. Williams is out until at least the start of the second round of the playoffs after suffering a torn meniscus last weekend. Without him, the Celtics dropped two in a row, losing to Toronto (in OT) and Miami. But they bounced back on Friday with a 128-123 win over Indiana. Still, in three of the last four games, Boston has surrendered 110 or more points. They’ll be challenged again defensively here, facing a team that has put up 262 points its last two games. 

While Boston is battling for a high seed in the East, Washington has officially been eliminated from playoff contention. But the Wizards aren’t rolling over. They’ve won four of five and just destroyed Dallas 135-103 on Friday. They had a pair of 41-point quarters in that game and got a season-high 35 points from Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. While I do not anticipate the team will be able to match its hot three-point shooting from the last game (17 of 33), at the same time the Wiz are also probably due for some defensive regression. Dallas shot only 29% from beyond the arc on Friday. The Wiz typically allow a much higher percentage. 

I know that none of the previous nine head to head meetings have gone Over in regulation. But this is a prolific Boston team still hoping to finish first in the East. They are currently third in the East, two games behind first place Miami and just a half game behind second place Milwaukee. They are also just a half game ahead of fourth place Philadelphia. The Celtics have scored 124 or more points in six of its last eight games. Washington has scored 123 or more in three of its last four games. The Celtics are 3-0 Over as home favorites of 12.5 or more points this season while the Wizards are 4-0 Over their L4 games following a SU win by 10+ points. 8* Over Wizards/Celtics

10* Over Granada/Rayo Vallecano (12:30 ET): Granada actually finds themselves at the bottom of the league in xPts (expected points) after being bottom three in that metric last season. Somehow they may again avoid relegation, although as of press time they are just two points clear of the drop zone in La Liga and that’s after a last gasp win over last place Alaves two weeks ago when the game winner came five minutes into stoppage time. That wild 3-2 victory snapped a 10-match winless run in the Spanish top flight and there’s still clearly work to be done if they are to avoid being sent down to the Segunda Division. 

Rayo Vallecano earned promotion from the Segunda Division last season and got off to a shockingly good start in the top flight here in 2021-22. But they too have hit the skids recently with no wins over their last nine fixtures (across all competitions), which includes seven losses and an exit from the Copa del Rey. Vallecano now finds itself down in 13th place, four points ahead of Granada, so they are a little safer when it comes to the threat of relegation but not out of the woods quite yet. They have not won in the league since Dec 18 against Alaves and have conceded at least once in each of those L9 matches. 

In six of Granada’s last eight matches, there have been more than 2.5 xG (expected goals). A lot of that has to do with their poor defensive record, which is fourth worst in all of La Liga right now. They are dead last in the league in xGA (expected goals allowed) as well as shots allowed. They’ve conceded at least one goal in nine of the last 10 matches and multiple goals six different times in that stretch. So I see this one going Over the total on Sunday. It was actually 4-0 in favor of Vallecano when these sides met in the reverse back in August. 10* Over Granada/Rayo Vallecano

10* Mainz +0.5 (11:30 AM ET): These two Bundesliga sides are separated by only four points and two spots in the table. But goal differential (don’t we always go back to that?) says the gap should be a lot wider. Mainz, who doesn’t usually find themselves in the top half of the table, still has a chance at a top six finish which would have them playing European football next season. They have two matches in hand compared to everyone above them and as long as they can pick up points in each of the next two fixtures (this one and Weds vs. Augsburg), they’ll be in good shape. I don’t see Mainz doing any worse than a draw on Sunday and thus will play them +0.5 on the goal line. 

Back to goal differential, Mainz is actually +9 this season, which is sixth best in the entire Bundesliga! Despite having played two fewer matches than almost everybody in the league, they are seventh in xPts. Now compare that to Borussia Monchengladbach, who has a -13 GD in what has been a down year for them. While there has been a bit of a recent resurgence for Gladbach, winning two in a row, they still are only seven points clear of automatic relegation. Also, the two sides that Gladbach recently beat - Hertha Berlin and Bochum - are both in the bottom half of the table. 

Before the Int’l Break, Mainz ran out to a 4-0 win over Arminia Bielefeld, which was much needed following losses to Union Berlin and Dortmund. But they’d also previously beaten top three Leverkusen. I’m just very surprised at the pricing on this matchup as Mainz is the better side and seemingly has an edge when it comes to pressing against Gladbach’s poor transition defense. Also, Mainz has conceded the second fewest number of goals in the league this season. Gladbach is tied for third MOST conceded and over its L15 matches has only held two sides (Bielefeld & Hertha) under 1.0 xG. Again, betting the goal line means that all we need is a draw here. I think Mainz is likely to win. 10* Mainz +0.5

8* Under North Carolina/Duke (8:49 ET): Think this game might have some interest? Improbably, in the midst of Coach K’s final run, we’ve got a Duke-North Carolina National Semifinal. This is a rematch from the regular season finale, also Coach K’s final ever game at Cameron Indoor Stadium, and the Tar Heels came in and ruined the party with a 94-81 upset (as 11-point underdogs!). I made a “wrong call” with the Under that night. (Total was 153). For the sixth straight time, a Duke-UNC meeting went Over the total. But, perhaps stubbornly, I feel this one will be different. I cashed a Duke Under in Round 1. That’s the play here. 

Duke has been the exception to the “Tournament rule” to this point. The Under went 10-1-1 last weekend in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. The Blue Devils’ 78-73 win over Texas Tech was the lone Over. Their 78-69 win over Arkansas was the push. The Over is now 8-1-1 in Duke’s L10 games. But again, given the shooting we’ve seen in this tournament so far, can the Blue Devils really continue to be immune from an “off-shooting” night? This is the highest O/U line for any Duke tournament game thus far and three of the previous four would have stayed Under. Shooting in the cavernous Superdome (New Orleans) could be a problem - for both teams. 

Carolina did allow 80 in regulation to Baylor in Round 2. But other than that, they have not allowed more than 66 in any other game. Three of the four opponents have shot 25% or worse from three-point range. The Tar Heels have not shot all that well themselves in the last two games, both of which stayed Under. 8* Under North Carolina/Duke

10* Miami (8:10 ET): Though I don’t think they deserve to, it looks as if Chicago is likely to finish in the Eastern Conference’s top six and thus avoid the play-in round. Of the top six, the Bulls easily have the worst YTD point differential and net efficiency. In fact, they are behind 7th place Cleveland as well as Brooklyn and Atlanta in both regards. Though the Bulls did manage to come from behind and beat the Clippers in OT on Thursday, their ATS record since the All-Star remains a poor 5-12 ATS. 

It’s not just the underlying metrics that make me skeptical of this Bulls team. They have also been PUTRID against the league’s best teams. They are 1-19 SU in their L20 games against teams with the top nine records in the league. That includes 0-3 vs. the Heat, who they host here. The last four times that Chicago has faced a team with a win percentage of .600 or better, they have lost by at least 15 points. Don’t look for tonight to go any different as the last two meetings with the Heat have been decided by a total of 29 points.

After going cold for a bit, Miami posted B2B wins to end March and thus continues to lead the East with a 49-28 SU record. They are now one game up on the Bucks, who got crushed last night. But two other teams (Celtics, Sixers) are within 2.5 games as well. So the Heat can’t afford to take any nights off here. They are off a huge win in Boston on Thursday as four of the five starters scored 14 or more points. The Heat also held the Celtics to 15 points in the fourth quarter. With that win, they are now 8-1-1 ATS L10 road games. Lay the points. 10* Miami

10* Over Villanova/Kansas (6:09 ET): So Villanova’s last three games have all gone Under. Throughout the NCAA Tournament, the number of total points scored in games involving the Wildcats has steadily decreased (140-132-118-94). So has Nova’s three point shooting (46.4%-34.8%-30.0%-23.8%). Though their Final Four opponent is holding teams below 35% overall shooting for the Tournament, I believe Nova’s shooting and the number of total points per game here are due to INCREASE. For the season, Jay Wright’s team averages 71.9 PPG. This team (and this Tournament) is due for an uptick in scoring. 

When it comes to the expectation of how Kansas will shoot the basketball on Saturday, I have the same view as I do for Villanova. The Jayhawks have already scored 76+ points in three of their four tourney wins, so I really have less of a concern about their offense. I know that Villanova’s last two opponents have shot 34.4% and 29.8% respectively. But can the Wildcats REALLY count on such putrid three-point shooting from their opponents again? Houston missed 19 of 20 3PA against them in the Elite 8! Kansas averages 78.3 PPG for the season and is #7 in the country in offensive efficiency.

Villanova is not far behind, ranking 9th nationally in offensive efficiency. Their three-point shooting, like I said earlier, HAS to get better on Saturday. At the same time, Kansas can’t count on the sort of good fortune they’ve had from the last two opponents putting up bricks. Providence and Miami missed 37 of 44 three-point tries, a stunning bit of futility. This is the lowest O/U line of the tournament for Kansas. Three regular season totals were lower and all either went Over or pushed. I think we’ll see MUCH better shot making in this particular Final Four matchup. 10* Over Villanova/Kansas

10* Torino (2:45 ET): Torino was last victorious all the way back on January 15th. It’s been eight straight matches without a win, though four of those results have been draws. This winless run has left them 11th in the table, well clear of the relegation zone, but even more distant from the top six. Two weeks ago, before the International break, it was a brutal result having to share the points with reigning Scudetto holders Inter Milan, who made it a 1-1 draw by scoring the equalizer in the third minute of stoppage time. But here on Saturday, Torino will face the perfect opponent to get all three points. 

Salernitana sits at the bottom of the Serie A table with only 16 points and their chances of survival are looking slimmer by the week. A league-worst -43 goal differential seemingly confirms what we already know; this is the worst team in Serie A and they’re going to be “one and done” in the Italian top flight. Saleritana’s winless run goes back even further than Torino’s (now nine straight) as they last won a match on January 8th. They have shared the points on five separate occasions, but were held goalless in two of their three March fixtures, admittedly by Inter and Juventus. 

When these two sides faced off in the reverse fixture back in September, it was all Torino, rolling to a 4-0 victory. That remains their most convincing margin of victory of the season, tied with a win by the same score of Fiorentina on January 10th. I simply happen to think Torino “deserves” to be higher in the table; closer to the top eight. They are 9th in xPts (expected points), higher than either Sassuolo or Hellas Verona, despite having played one fewer match. Meanwhile, Salernitana is dead last in the league in every metric, including dead last in goals scored and allowed. 10* Torino

8* RB Leipzig +0.0 (12:30 PM ET): This is a top four clash in the Bundesliga with the two sides separated by 12 points, but a lot closer on goal differential. I think Borussia Dortmund should feel extremely fortunate to be only six points behind first place Bayern Munich. BVB has greatly overperformed its xG total this season, mostly thanks to Erling Haaland, but he’s now listed as doubtful for Saturday after sustaining an injury in Norway’s international friendly against Armenia. That’s a big blow when facing a side like Leipzig, who has lost only once in 2022 (to Bayern Munich) and is unbeaten in its last nine matches. 

Leipzig may be in a tight three-way battle for fourth right now (with Freiburg and Hoffenheim), but they are a deserved top four side in my opinion, based on the similar GD to Dortmund and third place Leverkusen. Leipzig was actually first in the league last season in xPts (yes, ahead of Bayern!) and this season, they are second in that regard, just ahead of Dortmund. While they haven’t matched BVB in goal scoring this season, I think it’s just as important to note they’ve conceded eight fewer times. Also, since the turn of the year, no Bundesliga side has picked up more points than Leipzig has (23). 

Even if Haaland does play here, I don’t see Leipzig doing any worse than a draw. They deserved better than a 0-0 draw against Eintracht Frankfurt two weeks ago. There have been multiple frustrating draws for this team, which is why they’re not firmly in the top four, but I can certainly see Leipzig winning here as they’ve been the better side compared to Dortmund over the last few months.  Even with Haaland on the pitch, BVB has scored only four times in the last four fixtures. Leipzig beat Dortmund 2-1 back in November and this is a huge fixture for them to get points. 8* RB Leipzig (DRAW = NO BET)

9* Under Brentford/Chelsea (10:00 AM ET): I think we all figure that Chelsea is finishing third in the Premier League table this season. That would actually be an improvement from last year (when they finished fourth), but right now the Blues’ greater concern may be with attaining a couple of pieces of hardware in the FA Cup (where they’ve progressed to the semis) and repeating in the Champions League (where they’re now in the quarterfinals). Still there is work to be done on the domestic front as Chelsea only has a five point advantage over fourth. I expect the usual impeccable play on the back end in this fixture.

While there is current drama in the front office regarding future ownership of the club, Chelsea has won six straight across all competitions and allowed a total of only three goals in the last five. That’s what we’ve come to expect under Thomas Tuchel as his side has consistently conceded very few goals during his managerial watch. Only first place Manchester City has conceded fewer goals this season and only second place Liverpool has conceded fewer times at home. Twice this season the Blues have faced Brentford (Saturday’s opponent) - once in the EFL Cup and once in league play. Neither time did they allow a goal to be scored. 

Now Brentford, a newly promoted side for this season, has just one goal at this point and that is to avoid relegation. They enter Saturday eight points clear of the drop zone and honestly deserve to be even further away based on how they’ve played in their return season to the Premier League. They only lost 1-0 to Chelsea in the reverse, back in October. Unfortunately for the Bees, they just don’t score much when facing the top Premier League teams. Against the top five in xGA (expected goals allowed), they’ve managed only 7.7 xG (expected goals). But with Chelsea in a “look ahead” to next week’s first leg vs. Real Madrid in the UCL, I don’t see them being all that aggressive here. That’s good for Brentford, whose only allowed three goals in the previous two matches vs. Chelsea. 9* Under Brentford/Chelsea

9* Under Norwich City/Brighton (10:00 AM ET): Brighton was my pick, at the start of the season, to be the most improved side in all of Europe (not just the Premier League). At the start of the season, things were looking great as they were in the top half of the table, even sniffing the European places. That’s a vast improvement for a side that finished an unlucky 16th last season. But now, following a poor run of form (six straight losses), the Seagulls are down in 13th position. They’re more than safe from relegation, but it’s a disappointing spot to be in, given the start to the campaign. The biggest problem has been goal scoring. They’ve managed just ONE goal during the winless run.

The opponents for Saturday, Norwich City, are in last place in the table and on a seven-match losing streak. So something is going to have to give here. The Canaries haven’t been quite as sad as Brighton in the goal scoring department, at least recently, but still have managed only five goals in those seven straight defeats. Obviously, a trip back down to the second tier continues to look more and more likely as Norwich has clearly been the EPL’s worst side this season. They have a -45 YTD goal differential and have scored the fewest goals in the league (18). 

Even worse for Norwich is that this fixture is away. They are the only EPL side yet to have hit 10 goals on their travels this season. They’ve also failed to score a single goal in any of their last three meetings with Brighton. It was 0-0 when these two met on the pitch back in October and I would not rule out a repeat of that scoreline here. More than one goal seems rather unlikely, so I love the Under for a second time this week in the Premier League as goals will be in short order in this Saturday morning fixture. 9* Under Norwich City/Brighton

10* Minnesota (9:10 ET): I’ve got the T’wolves rated as the better team here, despite recent form. Since the All-Star Break, they had posted the NBA’s second best net efficiency rating. That was until dropping four of their last five games, which seemingly leaves them resigned to the 7-seed and play-in round in the Western Conference. Right now, Minnesota faces a three-game deficit with five to play. The team they are chasing (Denver) is the opponent tonight and a win here would not only close the gap, but ensures Minny holds the tiebreaker. They should be favored in the last four games, so look for a top-notch effort on Friday. 

The Nuggets have won their last three games, so not only are they thinking about holding onto the 6-seed, they’ve got the potential for home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs on their mind. They are only two games back of third place, a tighter gap than what exists between them and the T’wolves, in what could be a wild finish. Note however that Denver’s three-game win streak has come at the expense of two bad teams (OKC, Indiana) and Charlotte. All three wins were by seven points or less, although they did have a huge early lead on Indiana Wednesday. But they shot 62.5% in that game, a number they won’t come close to matching here. 

Minnesota also had a big 1H lead on Weds, but could not hold it and ended up losing in a blowout to Toronto. That game saw a massive 40-point swing. Karl-Anthony Towns scored only 16 points on just 13 field goal attempts, so I think it’s more than reasonable to expect a bounce back performance from the T’wolves’ leading scorer tonight. Something worth noting is that the team averages more PPG on the road (117.5) than they do at home (112.9). They are actually the league’s highest scoring road team! Take the points. 10* Minnesota

8* Under Suns/Grizzlies (8:10 ET): These teams will be the top two seeds in the Western Conference come playoff time. Phoenix, who is way out in front of everybody, has already clinched the top spot and matched a franchise record for wins (62) after prevailing in each of their last nine games. Clearly, the Suns have been the best team in the league this season. Memphis is second in the West, 8.5 games back of the Suns, and is on its own win streak right now (six in a row). Even more impressive is that they are doing it without Ja Morant. The Grizzlies are an incredible 19-2 SU this season when Morant is NOT in the lineup.

With the lack of stakes, this game will hardly resemble a “playoff-like atmosphere.” However, I still expect strong defensive efforts and this one to go Under the total. The last three Grizzlies’ games have all stayed Under. One would think that with Morant out, the scoring would suffer. But the key to the win streak has been holding four of the last six opponents to 103 points or less. I do think that not having Morant will hurt the Grizz in this matchup, at the offensive end. The team has shot better than its average from three-point range in five of the last six games and I don’t see that continuing here. 

It appears as if Memphis will be sitting several players tonight. Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr, Steven Adams, Tyus Jones and Killian Tillie are all listed as doubtful or OUT. This is a team that relies on its depth, but I have little faith in the “skeleton crew” that will take the floor in this game. Phoenix has to be happy about it, especially after holding Philadelphia and Golden State to 104 and 103 points respectively in the last two games. None of the previous five Suns-Grizzlies encounters have seen more than 227 total points scored. This one won’t either. 8* Under Suns/Grizzlies

10* Over Fresno St/Coastal Carolina (6:00 ET): Lacking in the pageantry of tomorrow’s Final Four, or even last night’s NIT Final, we’ve got the Championship Game in the inaugural “Basketball Classic” on tap tonight. Fresno State has beaten Eastern Washington, Youngstown State and Southern Utah to get here. That’s a real “rogue’s gallery” of opponents and all three wins were at home. While still favored, the Bulldogs now have to hit the road to face a Coastal Carolina team that’s beaten MD-Eastern Shore, Florida Gulf Coast and South Alabama in this tournament. The Chanticleers’ last win was as close as it gets as they won at South Alabama, in overtime, on a three-pointer with one second remaining. 

Both these teams have solid defensive numbers. Coastal Carolina gives up only 62.2 PPG at home this season and held South Alabama to 60 in regulation on Monday. But this team can score as well. They average 76.7 PPG at home and this one is in Conway where we last saw them put up 84 on Florida Gulf Coast. This will almost certainly close as the lowest O/U line for any CC game all season, home or road. 

Fresno State is actually top four in the country in scoring defense, allowing just 58.9 PPG. But they give up slightly more per game on the road. Though they ended up scoring “only” 67 pts in the semifinal win against Southern Utah, the Bulldogs did shoot 50% overall from the field and were 11 of 21 from three-point range. In the first two games of this tournament, they scored 80 and 83 points. I don’t think that FSU is going to be able to hold Coastal Carolina to the kind of numbers we saw against Southern Utah, who shot just 31.1% overall and 4 of 20 from three-point range. This is the lowest O/U of the tournament for FSU. 10* Over Fresno State/Coastal Carolina

8* Utah (10:00 ET): The Jazz have somehow fallen down into sixth place in the Western Conference, despite possessing the fourth best YTD point differential in the entire NBA. They are, not coincidentally, in the top four of my own personal power rankings (3rd). However, a win would be nice after a disastrous road trip that saw them go 1-5 SU/ATS overall and lose the last five games. Without question, the most demoralizing defeat of the bunch occurred Tuesday when they blew a 25-point lead and lost 121-115 to the Clippers. I believe the Jazz will be “out for blood” in their return home Thursday against the Lakers. 

The Lakers are in trouble. LeBron James and Anthony Davis both remain out and the team holds a tenuous half game lead over San Antonio for the final spot in the play-in round. I don’t think the Lakers are getting in. They have a worse statistical profile than the Spurs and have just FOUR wins since the All-Star Break. Five of their last six opponents have shot at least 50% from the field and they just gave up 128 points to Dallas on Tuesday. Whereas I think Utah is much better than its won-loss record, the Lakers are worse than their WL record, a damning statement considering they are already 13 games below .500. 

If you can believe this, the Lakers are going for their second season sweep of the Jazz in the last 37 years. But the previous two wins were both at home. The Lakers’ road record is 11-26 SU and they are without their two superstars right now. I know this is a big number to lay with a team on a five-game losing streak, but Utah should be supremely motivated to handle its business here and is #2 in points per game at home in the league (116.3). Again, they were up 25 on the Clippers the other night. The Lakers just lost by 18. This should be a massive beatdown. 8* Utah

10* Brooklyn (7:30 ET): It promises to be a VERY interesting finish at the top of the Eastern Conference. Four teams are separated by two games and the defending NBA Champs are right in the mix, one game out of the top spot. I had Milwaukee Tuesday night in Philadelphia as they escaped with a 118-116 win. This team has now won 11 of its last 14, but all three losses have been on the road and four times in the last six games they’ve given up at least 116 points. This time, I’m going to fade the Bucks on the road as they head to Brooklyn to face a Nets team that’s also battling for playoff position. 

Brooklyn is now 8-3 SU its last 11 games after running out to a 130-123 win over Detroit on Tuesday. They didn’t cover the spread, which was 14 points, dropping to 8-28 ATS at home this season. But that record is a little misleading in that - until recently - Kyrie Irving was ineligible to play here. But Irving is “in the clear” now. It was Kevin Durant leading the way with 41 points on Tuesday. This is a team that has no issue scoring and will be a very dangerous first round matchup, presuming they make it out of the play-in round. Currently, the Nets are 8th and they want to at least maintain that position so they would only need to win once in the play-in round to make the playoffs proper. 

The Nets won the last meeting, 126-123 in Milwaukee, and that was without Durant. Despite the woeful ATS record at home (it’s a league-worst), I really like the Nets in this spot as I actually think they’re being drastically undervalued on their own floor.  Milwaukee is playing its third straight road game while this will be the third straight game at home for Brooklyn. The Bucks are just 4-9 - straight up and against the spread - as underdogs this season. I think they are far more desperate to finish in the top eight than Milwaukee is to finish first. 10* Brooklyn

9* Over Grizzlies/Spurs (8:40 ET): Memphis is clearly now the second best team in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies have clinched a playoff spot, surpassed both the Warriors and Jazz in YTD point differential and hold a five-game lead (with six to play) over third place. So this will be the #2 seed in the Western Conference, barring a miracle. That means they’ll face a team that escapes the play-in round in Round 1. Speaking of the play-in round, that’s all the Spurs are hoping for at this point. Last night’s loss by the Lakers moved SA into 10th in the West, a spot they’ll try and hold onto over the next two weeks. 

If you can believe it, Memphis is 18-2 SU this season when Ja Morant doesn’t play. That’s insane. Morant is out again tonight, but it hasn’t mattered as the Grizzlies are averaging a stunning 127.4 points their last five games, all without Morant. They’ve shot better than normal during that stretch, but not astronomically better (48.4%). A big key to the Grizzlies’ success is that they are obviously a deep team. Their second unit logs more minutes per game than any other second unit in the league. You’ve also got Desmond Bane, who has scored 22 or more points in every game since Morant went down. 

San Antonio is NOT a great defensive team, so they should struggle to stop Memphis here. But the Spurs can trade buckets. They are coming off a 123-120 win the other night (in Houston). Dejounte Murray scored a career-high 33 in that game and the thing is the team didn’t shoot all that well (47.0% overall), especially from three-point range (21%). So both teams should be able to maintain recent scoring levels tonight. The total was several points higher when they met last month. There were 126 points scored in the 1H of that last meeting, but it ended up just staying under because of a low-scoring 4Q. Not this time. 9* Over Grizzlies/Spurs

10* Over T’wolves/Raptors (7:40 ET): Minnesota has undoubtedly been one of the best teams in the NBA since the All-Star Break. However, having dropped three of their last four games, they seem destined for the play-in round as the seven seed. Entering Wednesday, the T’wolves are two games back of Denver (with six to play) in the race for the six seed. It didn’t help that the T’wolves gave up 134 points in a loss to Boston on Sunday. Defense has not been this team’s strong suit, at least when playing on the road where they have allowed an average of 117.7 PPG this season. That’s a big reason why I’m on the Over here.

Over in the Eastern Conference, Toronto’s prospects of avoiding the play-in round are looking good. They’ve passed Cleveland into sixth and can move back into a fifth place tie with Chicago with a win tonight. The Raptors have won three straight, scoring 115 or more points in every game, and have just two losses over the last three weeks. Now they needed overtime to get the win on Monday, over a short-handed Celtics team that had just beaten Minnesota the day before. But while Pascal Siakam may not match his individual effort (40 points) from Monday here, the team should shoot better than 43.4%. 

Toronto also made just 10 of 39 three-point attempts against Boston, well below their season average of 35%. They shouldn’t have much trouble draining threes here against a Minnesota team that allows opponents to hit 36% from behind the arc, on the road. The T’wolves let Boston shoot 56.3% overall on Sunday. But at the same time, the Raptors will probably also struggle defensively in this matchup. Minnesota averages 117.9 PPG itself on the road, so it should be no shock that the Over is 28-10 in all of their away games this season. The Over is 15-7 in Toronto’s last 22 home games. 10* Over T’wolves/Raptors

10* Under Washington St/Texas A&M (9:30 ET): So I’ve had success so far playing Washington State games in the NIT. I took the Under when they beat Santa Clara 63-50 in the opening round, which was quite the defensive performance by Wazzu as they held the Broncos to 26.5 points below their season average. Then came a 75-63 win at SMU, a tough place to play at. Last Wednesday, I was back on the Under train with Wazzu as they beat another WCC team (BYU), 77-58 as a 2.5-point underdog. Pretty clearly, the Cougars have been “locked in” defensively in the NIT, giving up just 57 PPG! 

Texas A&M, who many felt was “snubbed” by the NCAA Tournament, has also seen the Under hit in all three NIT games. The Under has actually hit four straight times for the Aggies, going back to the SEC Tournament Final vs. Tennessee. The difference between them and Wazzu is that all of A&M’s NIT games (previous to this) were played at home. The Aggies have held Alcorn State, Oregon and Wake Forest to an average of 58 PPG, basically right on par with Wazzu. Not overly concerned with A&M’s transition away from College Station as they held Auburn, Arkansas and Tennessee all to 65 points or fewer in the SEC Tournament. 

Look for the Under to hit again in this NIT semifinal battle. Washington State is allowing under 20% shooting from behind the three-point line in this tournament, which is just incredible. Texas A&M is not particularly adept at three-point shooting as is evident by the fact they’re down around 25% for the tournament. On the flip side, Washington State isn’t a great shooting team either; they’re hitting just over 40% overall from the field this season and A&M also happens to defend the three-point line well. Both teams play slow and are top 32 in the country in defensive efficiency. 10* Under Wash St/Texas A&M

8* Milwaukee (7:10 ET): The Bucks and Sixers are embroiled in what is a fascinating four-team race for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. Although I played against Boston last night, I’ve got the Celtics rated as the best of the bunch, followed by the Heat. But then comes the Bucks, the reigning NBA Champs, who will be looking to bounce back from an embarrassing 127-102 loss to a Memphis team that was without Ja Morant. Previously, the Bucks had won 10 of 12. I’ve got them rated as the better team than the Sixers, so this short line is not a surprise and I’ll play accordingly. 

Philadelphia has the same 46-28 SU record as Milwaukee, but with an inferior YTD point differential. The Sixers’ point differential is actually worse than seventh place Cleveland, but they are obviously a different team now with James Harden in the mix. Still, they did just lose by 10 at Phoenix on Sunday with Harden shooting 2 of 11 and finishing with only 14 points. I’ll concede the fact that the Sixers have yet to lose B2B games since acquiring Harden, but they’ve also generally faced weak/undermanned opponents when previously in this situation. For what it’s worth, the Sixers are 0-7 ATS on Tuesdays this season. 

Milwaukee has not been healthy most of this season, but they are close to 100 percent right now, which should be concerning for the rest of the Eastern Conference. Like the Sixers, the Bucks have not lost B2B games since February. They are 8-1 ATS in Tuesday games this season. Off a loss, the Bucks have been better (in terms of scoring differential) than when off a win. When off a double digit loss, the team’s ATS record is 8-4 in 2021-22. I simply believe the road team to be better in this matchup and am banking on them finishing higher in the standings. Therefore, taking the points is a no-brainer (obviously, given the line, I think the Bucks will win SU). 8* Milwaukee

10* Washington (7:10 ET): While there’s a fascinating four-team race for the top spot in the Eastern Conference, also keep an eye on the “next tier” where three teams (Chicago, Toronto, Cleveland) are battling to avoid the play-in round. One of the three will be “odd team out” and finish seventh. As of now, that “odd team out” is Cleveland, though they won last night and are just a game behind the other two. Toronto was also a winner on Monday. Chicago was a loser, blowing a double digit lead and going down 109-104 at the hands of the Knicks. The Bulls are the team I believe will finish as “odd team out.” 

Chicago is lower than Toronto and Cleveland in my power rankings and has the worst YTD point differential of the three. The Bulls, who overachieved in the first half of the season, have only outscored opponents by 0.4 PPG. That gives them an “expected” won-loss record of 38-37 SU. With five more wins than their “expected” win total, the Bulls are actually the biggest overachiever in the league in that regard. Defensively, they’ve fallen off a cliff since the All-Star Break, and the result is a 4-11 SU record in their L15 games. On the second night of a back to back, I can’t see how this team is favored on the road. 

Washington has won B2B games for the first time in forever. They shot a season-best 57.1% from three-point range in the 123-115 victory over Golden State on Sunday. While I do not think the Wizards will be able to match that lofty percentage here, they should still shoot well against a Bulls team that is giving up 112.5 PPG on the road this season. The Wiz are still technically alive for the playoffs, so don’t expect them to roll over. They’ve won two in a row as dogs and now have two more winnable home games on the docket (host Orlando tomorrow). Take the points. 10* Washington