10* Minnesota (2:05 ET): It has been 16 long years since the Twins last won a playoff game. That’s remarkable, especially considering they’ve made the postseason four times since then. Three of those four times saw them get swept in the ALDS. Then came last year’s Wild Card game vs. the Yankees. Of note, 13 of the Twins’ 16 straight playoff game losses have come against the team that wears pinstripes. They’ve thankfully avoided the Yankees this time and have a surprisingly favorable matchup with the Astros in Rd 1. 

Calling the Astros a “favorable matchup” may sound strange given all that they’ve accomplished the last several seasons. But the 2020 edition simply hasn’t been the same. The offseason was unprecedented for every team in baseball, but for Houston it was particularly ugly as they had to deal with all the fallout from the cheating scandal. A number of key injuries soon followed and the Astros ended up outscoring foes by only four runs this year. They also finished two games BELOW .500, which was the worst record among the eight AL playoff entrants. 

There are a ton of other factors pointing the Twins way in this series. Houston won just NINE games away from home during the regular season, easily the fewest among ALL playoff teams. I love Minny here in Game 1 behind Kenta Maeda, who finished 6-1 in 11 starts (8-3 TSR) w/ a 2.70 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. At home, Maeda was even better w/ a 5-0 TSR, 1.91 ERA and 0.545 WHIP. Zack Greinke, the Game 1 starter for the Astros, just isn’t what he used to be as he allowed 3+ ER in each of his last seven starts (5.73 ERA). Greinke did not win on the road all year. 10* Minnesota

8* Over Astros/Twins (2:05 ET): All things considered, this is a pretty favorable matchup for Minnesota. Houston had the worst record among the eight AL playoff entrants and has won just NINE times away from home all season. These road woes are felt particularly on the pitching side of the ledger. While the offensive numbers are fairly consistent home vs. road, the Astros give up 5.8 runs per game on the road, which is way up from the number they allow at home (3.4). That, coupled with the Minnesota offense, has me thinking Over in Game 1.

Even the once-great Zack Greinke was not immune to the Astros’ pitching woes on the road. He failed to win a single road start during the regular season (0-5 TSR). Greinke also wasn’t particularly effective down the stretch either, regardless of where he pitched. Over his last 7 starts, he’s given up at least 3 ER every time out and has a 5.73 ERA. He never lasted longer than six innings in any of those seven starts, which is key because Houston’s bullpen numbers are up as well on the road.

It was Greinke’s four-seam fastball that proved most vulnerable and that’s the pitch he throws most often. Opposing hitters had a .321 average against it and slugged .536. Two of the Twins’ top hitters - Nelson Cruz and Miguel Sano - slugged .868 and .635 respectively against four-seamers in the regular season. I know the Twins have Maeda pitching and allowed the fewest # of runs per game at home in MLB. But Maeda’s final reg season start did go Over and this Twins offense is good enough to send this one Over almost by its lonesome. 8* Over Astros/Twins

8* Baltimore (8:20 ET): Over its last five games, Kansas City has found itself down by double digits four times. Remarkably, they have won all five of those games, including the Super Bowl. They’ve even covered the spread in all but one, that being last week’s 23-20 OT win over the Chargers. That win required not one but TWO 58-yard field goals from Harrison Butker. But, as mentioned above, the Chiefs’ ATS win streak (which had been at 10 straight) did end. Now it’s time for their 11-game SU win streak to end as well.

Baltimore has won its last 14 regular season games. You’d have to go all the way back to Week 4 of last season when they lost at home (to Cleveland!) to find the last regular season loss. The Ravens have been more impressive than the Chiefs in the first two games, dominating the Browns and Texans by an average of 24.5 PPG. They easily covered the spread in both games while also winning the total yardage battle. Something else that’s worth noting is Kansas City is being outgained on a yards per play basis this year.

The Ravens are at home, laying a short number, thus I’ve got to take them no matter the opponent. Kansas City has been great in the past as an underdog w/ Mahomes as QB, but they’ve also never had to face an opponent that’s this good. Don’t forget that while KC won the Super Bowl, Baltimore was the more impressive team in the regular season last year. The Ravens are 16-8 ATS all-time on MNF. They have lost to the Chiefs each of the L2 years (and are 0-3 against them since ‘15), so don’t discount the “revenge factor” either. 8* Baltimore

8* Under Chiefs/Ravens (8:20 ET): This number is predictably high as you’ve got two of the great offenses in this league. But be aware that it’s also the highest O/U line for any Ravens game in HISTORY! Neither of Baltimore’s previous two efforts would have gone Over this number. In fact, neither did Kansas City’s. While neither defense has faced an offense like the one they’ll see tonight, both did excellent jobs containing DeShaun Watson. The Ravens and Chiefs combined to allow just 18 PPG in their respective wins over the Texans this season. 

Kansas City scored just nine points in the first half last week and had only 17 before a game-tying FG as time expired in regulation. So they can be slowed down. The Chargers gave Patrick Mahomes a MUCH different look defensively than they had the previous season and I expect the Ravens to do something similar tonight. These teams have met each of the last two seasons. While Baltimore is 0-2, my guess is they’ll be better prepared for Mahomes this time around. 

The Ravens did score 33 last week, but they had a defensive touchdown. I am counting more on the defense to carry them to victory tonight. That may sound crazy with all the focus (rightly) on the QB matchup of Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson. But I think the success that the Ravens will have in this game, at least offensively, will be on the ground. That should chew up some clock. Jackson didn’t even throw for 200 yards last week! Both teams’ Overs this season were by half a point. KC is 4-0 Under its L4 road games. 8* Under Chiefs/Ravens

9* Under Packers/Saints (8:20 ET): Both the Packers and Saints are 2 for 2 on the Over, so it’s not a surprise that the total is pretty high Sunday night. However, despite averaging nearly 30 PPG thus far, not all is well in New Orleans. HC Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees were both highly critical of their respective performances in Week 1 (even though they won) and then last Monday saw them lose out in Las Vegas as they could muster only 7 points in the second half. There are now legit questions concerning Brees’ arm strength.

Green Bay has put up 43 and 42 points in wins over the Lions and Vikings thus far. Aaron Rodgers has certainly looked like his old self, however there could be an issue tonight as WR Devante Adams is questionable and labeled a “game-time decision.” Adams is one of the top wideouts in the league and while Rodgers has a 6-0 TD-INT ratio thus far, the receiving corps beyond Adams isn’t great and drops far too many passes. Also, the Saints defense that Rodgers will be facing here is far superior to that of the Lions and Vikings, two teams that are a combined 0-4 thus far and total messes.

Brees will be without his top receiver as well in Michael Thomas, who led the league in catches last season. So far, New Orleans ranks just 21st in total offense. They gained less than 300 total yards vs. Tampa Bay in the season opener, then last week were nearly held scoreless after halftime. Take away the 17 pts the Saints had off turnovers in Week 1 and they are averaging just 20.5 PPG. But I think their defense, which was one of the league’s best in 2019, will step up tonight. The Under is 5-2 in GB’s L7 as a road underdog. 9* Under Packers/Saints

8* Denver (4:25 ET): This is the game this week where my power rankings differ the most from the actual game line. Now my power rankings obviously don’t know about Denver’s injury situation, the most notable being at QB, but still I believe they’ve been “downgraded” too much for this week’s tilt vs. Tampa Bay. The Broncos are actually 2-0 ATS so far having lost by a total of just seven points to the Titans and Steelers, two teams that are a combined 4-0 SU. Even with Tom Brady, the Bucs haven’t been impressive enough to justify being in this kind of price range on the road. Take the points.

Because of Brady, the Buccaneers came into 2020 with very high expectations. Some might even say unreasonable expectations. They’re likely to be favored in as many 13 games, which is crazy for a team that won just 7 games LY and has a 40+ year old starting QB. While they did win last week, that was at home vs. Carolina, who is one of the worst teams in the league. While they played the Saints tough in New Orleans, they still lost by double digits and keep in mind that the Saints just lost to the Raiders Monday night.

Tampa Bay was actually outgained by Carolina LW, 427-339. They were fortunate to force four turnovers. But concerning is the fact that Brady seems to have inherited former QB James Winston’s turnover bug. The Bucs have five of those in two games. Over the L18 games, the Broncos have gone 11-7 ATS and that includes 6-5 when Drew Lock is NOT the starting QB. Jeff Driskell will start in Week 3 and he very nearly led a come from behind victory at Pittsburgh last week. Brady is just 2-4 ATS L6 tries as a road favorite of 6+ points. 8* Denver

10* Under Cowboys/Seahawks (4:25 ET): Everyone will be expecting fireworks in “America’s Game of the Week,” but I think Cowboys/Seahawks will find a way to stay Under the total. This is a really high number, the likes of which you rarely see, especially this early in the season. While both teams were involved in shootouts last week - and Seattle has scored 73 points in two games behind leading MVP candidate Russell Wilson - I just don’t think the number should be quite this high. Take the Under. 

Dallas pulled off an all-time comeback last week against Atlanta, rallying from 12 points back in the final eight minutes to stun the Falcons 40-39. Dak Prescott threw for 450 yards, but that was against an awful defense. It should be pointed out that the reason the Cowboys were in such a large, early hole was turnovers. Three of Atlanta’s first four scores came off turnovers and five and they had four scoring drives of 31 yds or less. All told, the Cowboys defense wasn’t bad despite giving up 39 points. They allowed only 20 in Week 1, but of course Dallas lost that game because the offense wasn’t nearly as effective against the Rams as it was vs. Atlanta. That may have something to do with the fact the Cowboys always tend to struggle offensively on the road. 

Seattle had no problems beating Atlanta in Week 1 and that was on the road whereas Dallas got the Falcons at home. But it was a close one last week for the Seahawks as they outlasted the Patriots 35-30. Wilson now has the league’s highest completion rate EVER through two weeks. But he can’t keep completing 82% of his passes and for whatever reason he tends to struggle vs. the Cowboys, averaging only 154 yards passing in five games. The Under is 29-14 in Dallas’ L43 road games including 9-3 the L12 where they were an underdog. 10* Under Cowboys/Seahawks

8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): Who would have thought that without both Saquon Barkley (out for year) and Sterling Shepard it would be the Giants dealing with LESS issues on the injury front? The 49ers come into Week 3 as banged up as any team I can ever recall. They will be without their two top running backs, QB Jimmy Garoppolo, their top three defensive players (Bosa, Thomas, Sherman) and top pass catcher. It will be Nick Mullens starting Sunday as the team plays for the second straight week at Giants Stadium. 

Last week, the 49ers still managed to down the Jets 31-13. But that’s arguably the worst team in football they were up against and they already had the lead when the injuries began to pile up. In fact, they scored a TD on their first offensive play from scrimmage. They can’t count on doing so again here as the Giants defense has played much better than expected, giving up only 43 total pts in two games including only 10 in the second half. Even w/o Barkley, they very nearly came from behind to defeat Chicago on the road last week, a game where they allowed just 304 total yards. 

Even with a poor ATS history as a home dog of 7 points or less, I see the Giants potentially pulling the outright upset here. The 49ers did stay out East all week, but even under a normal circumstance this is a tough spot. That they lost so many players last week only compounds matters. Facing a 49ers’ defense that is a shell of its former self, I expect Giants QB Daniel Jones and the rest of the offense to have a surprisingly good day. The 49ers were likely to regress this season anyway; the injuries pretty much confirm that. 8* NY Giants

8* Houston (1:00 ET): Don’t blame the Texans too much for being 0-2; all they’ve had to do so far is face the Chiefs and the Ravens. Those are the two best teams in the AFC, if not the entire NFL. The task is only slightly less formidable in Week 3 when they travel to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers. The Steelers, like those other teams, are also 2-0. But last week at home they only barely survived a Broncos team with Jeff Driskell at QB. This line has come down for a reason and I smell upset.

Believe it or not, but Houston actually outgained KC and Baltimore on a per play basis. Being -3 in TO margin to those two means trouble though and that’s what Houston was. This was a team that started 0-3 SU in 2018 and still found a way to make the playoffs. They also made the playoffs after an 0-2 start in 2015. So they won’t be hanging their heads yet. ''That's all we can do is just put our head down and grind,'' DeShaun Watson said. ''Just work and try to do what we do and see what the outcome comes like. Of course, we don't want to be 0-3, but that's not the main thing that's on our minds right now.'' 

Houston still has Watson at QB and he’s far better than any QB the Steelers have faced thus far. I look for Watson to have a big game here and for WR Will Fuller to bounce back here after being held w/o a catch by Baltimore. The Texans are 8-1 ATS their last nine tries off a DD loss at home. Again, Pittsburgh needed to make a late stop LW vs. Denver, up 26-21, to preserve the win against a team playing w/ a backup QB in an emergency situation. The Black & Gold has covered just two of the last eight times it’s been a home favorite. 8* Houston

10* Sassuolo (6:30 AM ET): Last season was Sassuolo’s highest finish in the Serie A table (8th) since 2015-16. Coming off that effort, they opened 2020-21 by playing to a 1-1 draw with Cagliari, striking late to earn themselves a point. They should have no problem getting the full three (points) Sunday when they face recently promoted Spezia, who will be taking the field for the first time at the top flight level. 

Spezia finished third in Serie B last season, earning promotion through the playoffs. This is a club that had to declare bankruptcy 12 years ago after being relegated from the second tier. So it’s been a long climb to this level of play. Unfortunately, there figures to be a steep learning curve, especially when matched up with the top teams in the league. It’s very difficult for me to see a win, or even a draw, from them in this debut. 

Sassuolo should feel no shame in last week’s draw. After all, they drew Cagliari both times last season. But this is a situation where they have to be eyeing the full three points this week. Last season’s slow start (just two wins in the first seven matches) has to be fresh in their minds. The L2 meetings with Spezia (most recent in ‘18) have produced a pair of “clean sheets” for Sassuolo. The fact this line has moved so much should tell you something. 10* Sassuolo

8* Troy (10:15 ET): Finally, a chance to win late night on College Football Saturday! Both Troy and BYU enter this second game of the season off blowout victories. BYU’s came all the way back on September 7th when they humiliated Navy 55-3 in Annapolis. Troy also went on the road for its opener and they came away with a 47-14 win over Middle Tennessee. That one made me happy as I laid the modest spread with the Trojans. Now that they’re underdogs here, by two touchdowns, I like them even more!

The fact BYU has been off for 19 days is a disadvantage in my book. The reason for the long layoff should be obvious as the Cougars were yet another team dealing with COVID-19. As many as 10 players tested positive while 22 had to go into quarantine. This obviously creates an issue for practicing as some had to be cancelled while others saw players broken up into small groups of 10.  As impressive as the win over Navy was, BYU can’t possibly duplicate that kind of performance under the current circumstances. Another bad sign is the fact BYU is just 1-7 ATS the last eight times it has been favored. 

Troy looked even better than expected against Middle Tennessee, doubling the opposition in total yardage. As noted in last week’s analysis, the Trojans were a lot better LY than their 5-7 SU record would seem to indicate. All five wins were by at least three touchdowns while three of the seven losses were one-score games. The only teams they struggled against were Missouri (SEC team) and then the two that played for the SBC Title (App State, Louisiana). QB Gunnar Watson has his top SEVEN pass catchers back from 2019 and this offense was actually 18th in the country at 458 YPG last season. 8* Troy

9* Baylor (7:30 ET): The previous two years saw Baylor improve it’s win total from 1 to 7 to 11. That was a remarkable coaching effort from Matt Rhule, which is why he’s now in the NFL The Dave Aranda era is now set to begin in Waco and the former Wisconsin & LSU defensive coordinator inherits a squad that virtually everyone believes will regress in 2020. Fortunately for Aranda, he’s opening up against Kansas, the bottom-feeder of the Big 12 that just lost at home to Coastal Carolina (by 15 pts!) two weeks ago. 

Baylor has beaten Kansas 10 straight times, averaging 576.7 YPG in the process. Last year, it was 61-6 in Lawrence and Bears were “only” a 14-point favorite in that one, if you can believe it. While there are a lot of unknowns right now with this team, what we do know is that Kansas remains very bad. The Jayhawks were -3 in turnovers vs. Coastal Carolina, but what you really need to know is they were down 28-0 (at home) in the final minute of the first half! Over the L10 years, KU is just 6-83 SU in conference play, never winning more than one game in any season. 

This is Baylor’s third attempt at starting their season. COVID-19 has gotten in the way both times so far, but Aranda said four days ago that those issues were behind the team. The Bears really could not have asked for a better opponent. Maybe it’s the fact they’ve had to postpone twice, or the unknown factor of a new coaching staff, but this line opened WAY too low IMO. That it’s actually been bet DOWN is pure lunacy as Kansas isn’t going to win a conference game all season. 9* Baylor

10* Under Marques/Ibragimov (7:00 ET): This fight will kick off the UFC 253 card prelims and it’s scheduled for three rounds at Light Heavyweight (205 lbs). Ibragimov is 8-3 while Marques is 9-2, but these fighters are very much at different stages of their respective careers. Ibragimov is very much fighting for his UFC career here while Marques is making his promotion debut. Regardless of who gets their hand raised, don’t look for this one to get to the cards. Under 2.5 rounds is the pick Saturday night.

Ibragimov was 8-0, but he’s 0-3 fighting under the UFC banner. So you can see how his spot is now in jeopardy. He’s been stopped in two of those three losses and in his lone appearance since the pandemic began, it was a 1st round TKO that he suffered at the hands of Roman Dolidze. In his last eight fights, only one time have the judges had to render a decision. 

Eight of Marques’ nine wins have been by stoppage. He hasn’t fought since 2018 though as he had a bout cancelled back in March. While I can see this fight certainly getting off to a “slow start,” neither fighter is all that talented and one is quite likely to make a mistake. That lends itself to a finish, one way or another. It should be a relatively brief opener on the UFC 253 card. 10* Under Marques/Ibragimov

8* Chi White Sox (7:10 ET): The White Sox, one of the real breakout teams this year in MLB, have picked a BAD time to play their worst baseball of the season. Granted, they have already clinched a playoff berth. But their range of possible seeding has gotten very wide, thanks to a six-game losing streak. They could be as high as the #2 seed if they were to win their division, a race which they currently trail by 1 game. But because of this losing skid, they could fall as low as the #7 seed if they were to finish behind both the Twins and Indians in the AL Central.

First things first, the White Sox just need to win a game. I like their chances tonight behind Dane Dunning, who has a 5-1 team start record to go along with a 3.19 ERA and 1.032 WHIP. While Dunning is off his worst start to date, one in which he allowed 4 runs in a 7-4 loss at Cleveland, he still has a 2.65 ERA and 0.941 WHIP his L3 starts. He’s also unbeaten at home w/ a 0.735 WHIP. 

A 10-0 loss last night to the Cubs was a total embarrassment for the White Sox. Consider that the Cubs had been held to three runs or fewer in eight of their previous nine games, including 1 or 0 five times. The Cubs have not technically clinched the NL Central, but it’s extremely unlikely that they wouldn’t get the pennant given their current lead is at three games. The White Sox still have the best run differential in the American League (+58) and scored eight times off Jon Lester (Saturday’s starter for Cubs) in just 3 ⅔ innings back on August 21st. 8* Chi White Sox

8* Duke (4:00 ET): The Blue Devils are 0-2, but that’s actually quite understandable. They opened the season at Notre Dame, whom they played tough in a 27-13 loss (was 17-13 heading into the 4Q). Last week’s 26-6 home loss to Boston College looks bad, and I was certainly glad it happened (as I had B.C.), but that result can directly be attributed to the fact Duke turned the ball over FIVE times. Total yardage was basically even. Four of the five turnovers took place in the red zone where the Blue Devils have now scored just one TD in seven trips this season!

Having not played a game yet, Virginia is a bit of an “unknown” coming into this afternoon. But what we do know is they’ll definitely miss QB Bryce Perkins, who graduated and was essentially the Hoos’ entire offense last season. You have to think that UVA is at a severe disadvantage here facing a team that’s already played twice, even if the game is at home and they are 5-0 SU/ATS the L5 seasons vs. the Blue Devils.

That recent head to head record and what has transpired the L2 wks will certainly have Duke motivated this week. Under HC David Cutcliffe, this team has been tremendous as an underdog, going 11-5 ATS L16 tries. All those turnovers last week couldn’t have happened at a worse time as they turned what could have been a SU win into a 20-point loss. The defensive front has looked good in both games against superior O-lines than what they’ll see here. 8* Duke

10* Texas (3:30 ET): While they were ultimately victorious, Texas Tech’s performance in the season opener could hardly be called “good.” They gave up 600 yards to Houston Baptist, which is a FCS school and not a very good one at that. Even more frightening is that the Red Raiders needed to prevent a 2-pt conversion w/ 3:23 left to hold on for the 35-33 victory. Now, the Lubbock faithful will point to the fact that over a dozen players missed the game due to COVID-19. Still, I don’t think that excuses the poor performance. 

There was nothing poor about the way Texas opened its season. In what HC Tom Herman called a “scrimmage,” the Longhorns blasted UTEP 59-3 as a 45-point favorite. QB Sam Ehlinger threw for 426 yards and five touchdowns -- in the first half! Texas, now ranked 8th in the country, had nearly 700 yards of total offense and didn’t even try in the second half. You can imagine how they have to be licking their chops going against a defense that just gave up 600 yards to a FCS school. Texas is already 8-2 ATS the L10 meetings vs. TT. 

Last year’s matchup in Austin saw the Horns win 49-24 as a nine-point favorite. They are an even stronger team in 2020, thus it’s not surprising to see the line significantly higher even though this game is being played on the road. The last two times they’ve played, Texas has scored a total of 90 points on Texas Tech. I’ve got this line right around 24 points, so even after the line move we’re still getting plenty of value. This is a really good team that should be able to “name the score” Saturday afternoon. 10* Texas

8* West Virginia (3:30 ET): I’m proud to say I was a little “ahead of the curve” when it came to fading Oklahoma State, having already done so last week when they could barely beat Tulsa. Now losing QB Spencer Sanders to injury early on didn’t help. But the fact the Pokes needed to outscore the Golden Hurricane 13-0 in the 4Q last week, just to get a SU win, doesn’t bode well as they are set to begin conference play. Sanders could return here, despite being in a walking boot earlier this week, but clearly wouldn’t be at full strength. 

With the Sanders injury, WVU has to smell “blood in the water.” The Mountaineers were 56-10 winners in their opener (vs. FCS Eastern Kentucky) and have had two weeks to prepare for this game. It’s a matchup they’ve likely had “circled” in Morgantown for awhile. Including LY’s 20-13 loss, WVU has lost five in a row to the Cowboys, also going 0-4-1 ATS. But three of those losses were by seven points or less. The Mountaineers are undeniably better in HC Neal Brown’s 2nd season.

Oklahoma State won last week because its defense was able to limit Tulsa to 278 total yards and 0 for 12 on third down. As you might suspect, WVU has a much more prolific offense than Tulsa. Keep in mind that Tulsa was dealing with several key absences last week themselves, most notably at the RB position. The fact OSU has four new starters on the offensive line this year is a big deal. WVU’s defensive front should be able to take full advantage of that. Big statement game for the underdog. 8* West Virginia

8* Tulane (2:30 ET): Two games in and it would be fair to say Tulane’s season has been defined by “comebacks.” One went their way, a 27-24 win over South Alabama in the opener where the Green Wave battled back from an early 24-6 deficit. But then last week saw them lose by the same 27-24 score to Navy after blowing their own 24-0 lead. There’s basically two ways this next game can go for Willie Fritz’s team: either there’s a hangover or they come out extra motivated. I’m betting on the latter. 

Southern Mississippi’s season also started in Mobile against South Alabama. Only they lost outright, as a 12-point favorite, 32-21. Following that loss, (now former) HC Jay Hopson abruptly resigned! Talk about an auspicious way to start your season! Co-OC Scott Walden is now the interim coach in Hattiesburg and I told you that he was stepping into a near-impossible situation vs. Louisiana Tech. Somehow, the Golden Eagles were still favored to win, so I faded and sure enough La Tech pulled the outright upset with the go-ahead TD in the final minute.

Oddsmakers have at least “learned their lesson” w/ USM this week by not favoring them. But still, this line ought to be closer to a full TD. Having started 0-2 and unexpectedly losing their HC, the Golden Eagles remain in a very fragile position. While this is USM’s third straight home game and Tulane hasn’t been that great on the road, note South Alabama came here and won when they hadn’t previously beaten a FBS team on the road since 2017! Tulane also holds a convincing 30-13 win over Southern Miss in LY’s Armed Forces Bowl.  8* Tulane

8* TCU (1:30 ET): TCU’s season was supposed to begin on September 11th against SMU, but that had to be scrapped because of positive coronavirus tests. Instead, they’ll now open the season with a game against Big XII rival Iowa State. This is a big revenge spot for the Horned Frogs, who lost 49-24 in Ames last season. That was with ISU getting a big game from its QB Brock Purdy and TCU being in the midst of a down season. The Horned Frogs project to be a lot better this year and now the game is in Fort Worth. 

Iowa State already played a game and it didn’t go as planned. Coming in as the #23 ranked team in the country, they lost at home to Louisiana (who is now #19 in the country), 31-14 as 13-pt favorites. It’s not that the Cyclones were beaten that badly ‘in the boxscore.’ (They actually outgained LA 303-272). But two turnovers really hurt and Purdy had a shockingly poor game with just 180 total yards (35 rushing). He completed less than 50% of his pass attempts. ISU is now 0-5-1 ATS its L6 games as a favorite.

TCU was just 5-7 SU last season and lost six of its final eight games. It was their worst season (record-wise) since 2013 (went 4-8 SU). They bounced back the next year to go 12-1 SU! HC Gary Patterson typically does a very good job and while he’s got a bit of a question mark at QB right now (both Downing and Duggan expected to play), he’s got a defense that should certainly overwhelm the ISU receivers like Louisiana did (if not more so!). TCU has not lost at home to Iowa State since 2012. Take the points. 8* TCU

8* Atalanta (9:00 AM ET): The big story coming into this Serie A season is whether or not Juventus can continue it’s long stretch of dominance in this league. Last year saw the i Bianconeri capture their ninth consecutive title, but the reality is they were not the best team. I’d say BOTH Internazionale and Atalanta were better and that’s confirmed by the goal differential column where our side for Saturday was #1 in the table at +50. This is an aggressive side that had an early “cold spell” last season. I don’t think it will happen again. 

Of all the clubs that want to fancy themselves as better than Juventus, Torino definitely is not one of them. They finished 16th last season, their lowest position in the table since being relegated in 2008-09. They lost 20 of 38 matches in 2019-20 and started this campaign w/ a 1-0 loss to Fiorentina, a side nowhere near as talented as the one they’ll face here on Saturday. While Torino was fairly active in the transfer market, they won’t have summer arrival Ricardo Rodriguez due to a hip problem. 

Atalanta has yet to open its Serie A campaign. They were given last week off due to their involvement in the Champions League (where they reached the quarterfinals before losing to eventual champs PSG). The Black & Blues did win all four friendlies this summer, so they’re in fine form. I suppose there’s always the danger of taking Torino too lightly, but I don’t think that’ll happen. This is a strong side that scored 98 goals last season, which was 17 more than the next highest-scoring side. It was more than double the number of goals scored by Torino! 8* Atalanta

10* Boston (8:35 ET): After jumping out to big leads in each of the first three games, the Celtics found themselves playing from behind almost the entire time in Game 4. That was an unfortunate result on this end with Boston being my Game of the Year. Quite frankly, the Celtics should be disgusted with themselves that they aren’t at least tied with the Heat in this Eastern Conference Finals. The total points scored in this series is dead even (441-441) though four games. Now facing a “win or go home” scenario, the Celtics are the call again Friday night. 

Boston has outshot and outrebounded Miami in this series. But turnovers and second-chance opportunities have been the story as the Heat are averaging six more shot attempts per game, largely due to the fact they are forcing an average of 16 turnovers per game. In Games 2 & 4, the Heat have scored 43 points off 39 Celtics turnovers. That’s unacceptable if you are Boston. So was giving up 37 points to Tyler Herro in Game 4. But you already knew that, if you watched that game. 

Now is when I’ll remind you that Boston has been up by 14 in the 4Q of Game 1 (lost in OT), 15 in the 3Q of Game 2 (lost by 5) and then by as many as 20 in Game 3 (won). This reminds me a bit of Boston’s last series with Toronto. The four Celtics’ wins in that series were by a combined 48 points while the three losses were by a total of 11 (one coming in 2 OT and another at the buzzer). I still believe the Celtics are the better team here. Miami’s three-point shooting has gone down in every game. With the season on the line, look for Boston to take better care of the basketball tonight and improve to 12-5 ATS when off a SU loss as a favorite. (Miami just 4-9 ATS off SU win as dog). 10* Boston

10* Middle Tennessee (8:00 ET): So much for being improved! Middle Tennessee has been a disaster in the early going, getting outscored 89-14 in lopsided losses to Army (42-0) and Troy (47-14). Despite the fact I faded the Blue Raiders in that loss to Troy last week, it was shocking to see how poorly they played. Three turnovers (following four more vs. Army) and QB Asher O’Hara (3,600 total yds & 29 TDs LY) was actually benched. But as bad as things have been thus far in Murfreesboro, I can’t believe MTSU is getting this many points against UTSA.

This is the most unique C-USA opener in history. Originally, UTSA was going to face Memphis. But the Tigers had to bow out due to a COVID-19 outbreak. That left an open spot on the schedule and MTSU stepped in. This change was made just last week, giving both sides very little time to prepare for an opponent they are not that familiar with, despite being conference rivals. There have been only two all-time meetings, the most recent taking place in 2016. The fact MTSU HC Rick Stockstill is being coy about his QB situation puts UTSA in a tough spot, especially laying points.

UTSA might be 2-0, but they’ve beaten a terrible Texas State team (in double overtime) and then SF Austin (a FCS school). As bad as MTSU has looked through two games, they are still the toughest opponent UTSA has faced so far. The Blue Raiders are also desperate, which has me grabbing the points. UTSA infamously almost gave away a 31-14 lead to Texas State in the opener. I had them as they were getting 6.5 points. But now they are favored in a FBS game for just the 1st time since 2018. They are 0-4-1 ATS L5 as a favorite (vs. FBS) and are just 4-13-1 ATS L18 home games. 10* Middle Tennessee

7* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): The American League playoff field is set with all eight teams having clinched. Of course, you can count the Yankees among the field. They can no longer win their division (AL East), but still need to secure their position as a probable 4 or 5 seed for the postseason (4th being obviously preferred). Last night’s 4-1 loss to Toronto didn’t help nor has losing four of the past five games overall. But now the Yanks return home where they are a perfect 8-0 this season as a favorite of -175 to -250. Look for them to take this series opener.

The National League playoff field is far from set with four spots still up for grabs. There are six teams vying for those four spots, all separated by just 1.5 games. Among the six, Miami has arguably the “clearest path” as their magic number is down to two and all they need to do is finish second in the NL East. But their very poor -40 YTD run differential (7th worst in MLB!) tells me this is NOT a great team and this final series of the regular season is hardly an ideal matchup.

The Marlins did win yday, 4-2 in Atlanta. But they had to endure a 99-minute rain delay in the process. Now they travel up to NY and have to face the red hot J.A. Happ, who threw eight shutout innings in Boston his last time out. Over his L3 starts, Happ has a 1.40 ERA and 0.776 WHIP. Miami starter Sandy Alcantara has pitched well of late too, but I trust him less as he’s gone more than six innings just one time all year. Remember that the Yankees won 10 in a row from 9/9-9/19. Their last home loss was on September 2nd! 7* NY Yankees

10* Eintracht Frankfurt +0.5 (2:30 PM ET): Eintracht Frankfurt had to be terribly disappointed with the result from their first Bundesliga match of the 2020-21 season. Facing promoted Arminia Bielefeld, all the Die Adler could muster was a 1-1 draw. Considering how they really dominated possession, that should have been a win. This is a side that fell just four points shy of Europa League qualification last season, so turning these draws into wins is paramount. 

Meanwhile, Hertha Berlin is one of seven sides in the league that started out with a win. They downed Werder Bremen 4-1. That opponent was in total disarray from the outset, so I wouldn’t go reading too much into it. Hertha isn’t a team likely to finish near the top of the table this season. They actually finished one point behind Frankfurt last season.

While Hertha has lost just one time in its previous five home affairs, that loss occurred to Frankfurt and it was by a score of 4-1. The sides also played to a 2-2 draw in Frankfurt last season. Coming off the disappointing draw, I expect an aggressive Frankfurt team here and taking the goal line is the way to go as it’ll give us a win in case of another draw. As I stated in last week’s analysis, Frankfurt is an underrated club this season. 10* Eintracht Frankfurt

10* Jacksonville (8:20 ET): So much for “tanking.” The Jaguars have been far more competitive than was expected the first two weeks, knocking off Indianapolis here at home and then nearly upsetting Tennessee on the road. That 2-0 ATS start has them favored at home on a short week and honestly this is probably one of the few instances we’d ever consider laying points with the Jags. Miami, who ironically overachieved LY in what was supposed to be a “tanking” season, has looked poor in the first two games, especially on the defensive side of the ball. 

Some felt Miami was going to be able to contend in the AFC East this season. I did not. Two weeks in and their fans are already calling for Tua! Losses to the Patriots and Bills have been a “cold dose of reality” as both contests saw the Dolphins play from behind the whole way. The defense was atrocious last week as it allowed Buffalo to gain 8.9 yards per play! That’s good news for Jags QB Gardner Minshew II, who has been surprisingly efficient so far in completing over 75% of his passes. The Dolphins’ pass defense is at the bottom of the league right now. 

Jacksonville is 4-0 ATS in Thursday night home games. They could easily be 2-0 heading into this game, but missed an XP early in the 4Q LW at Tennessee and then gave up the GW FG in the final two minutes. Special teams play wasn’t good either and the defense didn’t create much pressure. But despite losing, the Jags outgained the Titans 480-354. I can’t see the Dolphins correcting their issues on a short week, playing on the road. 10* Jacksonville

9* Milwaukee (8:15 ET): The Brewers can’t say that they don’t have a chance to play their way right into the postseason. Unfortunately for them, they just dropped two of three in Cincinnati, a costly result as they are now a full game back of where they need to be. However, they still largely control their own destiny due to facing St. Louis this weekend (for FIVE games). The Cardinals are one of FOUR teams that’s just a game up on the Brew Crew. Just to be clear, there are currently six teams within a game of .500 right now in the National League. Four of them will make the playoffs. The winner of this series is likely to be one of the four.

The Cards certainly didn’t boost their own postseason hopes when they dropped two of three in Kansas City. They lost 12-3 yesterday. Two of the three runs that they scored came in the ninth inning. Having just played 13 road games in 10 days, you’ve got to wonder what the Redbirds may have left in the tank this weekend as they get set to play their second 5-game series with the Brew Crew this season. Milwaukee won 3 of 5 at Miller Park earlier this month.

St. Louis will lean heavily on starter Kwang-Hyun Kim on Thursday. He’s pitched well in six starts, though he did just give up 4 runs his last time out and that was against last place Pittsburgh. The problem for Kim and the Cards is that Milwaukee starter Corbin Burnes has pitched just as well this season, if not better. Burnes tossed six scoreless innings his last time out and has 47 strikeouts his L5 starts. Even more impressive, he’s allowed just two runs (one unearned) in those five starts. For the year, Burnes now has a 1.25 ERA and 0.90 ERA. In a “must-win,” he’s exactly who the Brewers want on the mound in this situation. 9* Milwaukee

10* Kansas City (8:05 ET): There are five teams in the American League Central. Three of them have already booked their tickets to the playoffs. These are the other two. While it may not seem like the Tigers and Royals have much to play for this weekend, the loser of this series will finish last in the division. Kansas City actually has a vastly superior run differential (-27 vs. -66), which tells me they are the team likely to have the successful series here. I’m grabbing them on the moneyline in Thursday’s opener.

There was a time when Detroit fancied itself as having a shot to make the playoffs. The (then) 8th place Yankees were slumping and the Tigers were within a game of the playoff cut line. Unfortunately, since then, they have not done much. The season took nasty turn with a 19-0 loss to Milwaukee (I had the Brewers in that one!) and overall the Tigers are now just 5-16 their L21 games. They’ve been shutout five times in that stretch. They’ve lost three in a row overall and five straight road games coming into tonight. Meanwhile, KC did a good job at playing “spoiler” earlier this week, taking two of three from St. Louis including a 12-3 win yday.

I definitely like tonight’s starting pitching matchup from the Royals perspective. While Kris Bubic has a 1-8 TSR, the reality is that he’s pitched much better than his record. He has a 1.56 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in his L3 starts. Last time out, he allowed just one run on one hit in 5 ⅓ innings and the run was unearned. Detroit is going with Michael Fulmer in this game and that’s almost an automatic “play against” at this point. Having yet to pitch more than three innings in any start, Fulmer remains winless in nine trips to the mound. He has a 8.17 ERA and 1.973 WHIP. He’s 2-5 with a 4.55 ERA in 10 previous starts vs. KC. 10* Kansas City

10* UAB (7:30 ET): These teams are no strangers to playing on Thursday night. South Alabama opened its season on a Thursday with a 32-21 upset over Southern Miss as 12-point underdogs (Southern Miss’ coach then resigned). A week later, it was UAB’s turn to play on a Thursday and they lost 31-14 down in Miami. Considering who the opponent was, the Blazers need not hang their heads in shame over that result. While they are 0-2 ATS (also failed to cover in a win over Central Arkansas) and South Alabama is 2-0 ATS (almost upset Tulane in Week 2), this matchup favors the road team and I’ll lay the points in this one.

The last 3+ seasons have seen UAB win a total of 28 games and make B2B C-USA Title Game appearances. Keep in mind the program ceased to exist for the two years prior! HC Bill Clark has done a remarkable job here, considering that circumstance, and has one of the most experienced teams in the country in 2020. The 45-35 win over Central Arkansas was not as close as the final score indicates as the Blazers turned it over three times, but still had a 459-238 total yardage advantage. Two Central Arkansas’ TD drives were 15 yards or less and they had a defensive score as well. The Miami loss was simply a case of running into a better football team.

South Alabama is the kind of opponent UAB typically feasts on. The Jaguars won only TWO games LY. UAB is 4-1 ATS off a bye week as well as 18-3 SU (14-7 ATS) its L21 games as a favorite. They’ve also covered five of six against Sun Belt teams. While UAB did lose starting QB Tyler Johnston III to an injury (non-throwing shoulder), thankfully backup Bryson Lucero has seen action in both games thus far and is actually averaging more yards per attempt than Johnston was. South Alabama’s passing game - also using 2 different QB’s - has been effective thus far. But the UAB defense has yet to allow a 200+ yd passing day this season. South Alabama struggles to run the ball (3.4 YPC) and that will cost them here. 10* UAB

7* San Francisco (9:45 ET): Let’s roll with the Giants again as they brought home a 5-2 victory last night for us. Coming off a 7-2 loss Monday, I said they (SF) couldn’t afford many more losses considering the tight Wild Card race that they are currently involved in. While finishing second place in one’s division guarantees a playoff spot, the Giants don’t have that luxury as the top two in the NL West (LA and San Diego) have already both clinched. Right now, there are three teams at .500 (Giants, Reds, Brewers) all tied for the two “Wild Card” spots. Seeing as the Reds and Brewers are currently facing one another, this series is a great chance for San Fran to make its move.

The Rockies should be more than happy to oblige when it comes to the Giants making a run at the postseason. Colorado’s chances of making the playoffs are now rendered miniscule and they have the NL’s second worst run differential (-63) anyway. Ironically, it was a 23-5 loss to these Giants that essentially “sank” the Rockies’ season. They haven’t been the same since and it’s been a pretty miserable September overall.

Ryan Castellani will get the baseball for Colorado here. He made an impressive big-league debut back on 8.8 (against the lowly Mariners), but since then it’s been all downhill for the rookie. The team has won just two of his last seven starts with the last one being a real rough outing against the Dodgers. He allowed eight runs in 4 ⅓. Logan Webb is also off a rough outing here for the Giants, but he should turn it around against a Rockies’ lineup that is hitting just .223 on the road and now minus Nolan Arenado. 7* San Francisco

10* Boston (8:35 ET): The Celtics were FINALLY able to put away the Heat in Game 3. It wasn’t easy, but they ended up prevailing 117-106 and thus covered the 3-pt spread. For Miami, the loss marked the first time this postseason that they lost a game in regulation. But don’t let that distinction fool you into thinking they’ve been anywhere close to dominant in the Eastern Conference Finals. In fact, it’s been quite the reverse. In all three games in this series, they’ve been down double-digits!

The Heat’s propensity for starting slow caused Jimmy Butler to quip “I think it gets old, playing from behind consistently.” For the record, in this series the Heat have trailed by 14 in the 4Q of Game 1 (won in OT), by 15 in the 3Q of Game 2 (won by 5) and then by as many as 20 in Game 3. While they did end up losing by 11 points, the Heat actually got within 5 in the final minute of Game 3. This reminds me a bit of Boston’s last series with Toronto. The four Celtics’ wins in that series were by a combined 48 points while the three losses were by a total of 11 (one coming in 2 OT and another at the buzzer). The Celtics were pretty clearly better than the Raptors, although it took them seven games to advance. 

I also think the Celtics are better than the Heat. They could easily be up 3-0 in this series and thus be in position for the sweep Wednesday night. They’re not, but the way this series has gone is definitely worth noting. Miami’s shooting - both overall and from three-point range, has declined with each passing game in the series. In Game 3, Boston crushed Miami in points in the paint, 60-36. It must also be pointed out that Gordon Hayward is now back and while he didn’t have the greatest statline, his presence was still key to attacking Miami’s zone defense. The Celtics are also a better defensive team than the Heat. They have yet to allow more than 106 points in regulation this entire postseason! They are also now 23-8-1 ATS their L32 playoff games when favored. 10* Boston

8* Boston (7:35 ET): This season has been mostly bereft of highlights in Beantown, but tonight should mark an easy win for the Red Sox as they look to sweep the final series at Fenway Park. They beat Baltimore 8-3 last night, improving their mark to 32-14 the L3 seasons vs. the O’s. While it’s highly unusual for the Red Sox to be looking up at the Orioles in the standings, you can look for the home team to continue to own its division rival tonight as it sends Nathan Eovaldi to the bump.

Eovaldi has pitched very well of late, turning in a 1.20 ERA and 0.733 WHIP his last three starts. During that time, he’s allowed only 2 ER in 15 IP. He has 17 strikeouts and just one walk. Tonight marks the third time he’s faced Baltimore in 2020 and so far his TSR is 2-0 as he’s allowed two runs in 13 innings. The Red Sox won those two games by a combined score of 20-3 (13-1 and 7-2). Take away one disastrous start at Yankee Stadium and Eovaldi has had a really nice year. 

Boston still has a chance to pass Baltimore and get out of last place in the American League East. Look for that to be a point of emphasis in the final week of the season. Like the Red Sox, the Orioles have been eliminated from playoff contention. They’ve lost 5 of 6 and scored three runs or less in 7 of their last 10 games, including each of the last five. Dean Kremer will start for them Wednesday. While his numbers through three starts have been good, it’s still a small sample and the Orioles have scored just one run for him each of his last two times out. 8* Boston

6* Houston (6:40 ET): Barring something unforeseen, the Astros will end up as the 6-seed in the American League playoffs and face the division winner with the worst record in the first round. While that’s not up to the standard set in Houston these last few seasons, the ‘Stros will certainly “take it” considering all the controversy that surrounded the franchise in the offseason (cheating!), not to mention an unprecedented regular season that has seen them have to deal with countless injuries. A win tonight would clinch a playoff spot. 

If only they could play Seattle every day, Houston would be much happier. With last night’s 6-1 victory, they moved to 25-3 vs. the Mariners since the start of last season. They are 7-2 against their division rival in 2020. As if you needed to be reminded, Seattle is in the midst of a terrible season that’s been further complicated recently with the air quality in the area forcing them to play “home games” on the road. 

The Astros have been road favorites of -175 or higher only one time this season. They won and are 52-16 in that role in the L3 seasons. Sending out Zack Greinke tonight should ensure another victory. Grienke is 7-1 with a 2.08 ERA in 15 career starts vs. Seattle. While 2020 hasn’t been his best year by any means, Grienke still has a 1.075 WHIP. Seattle can only counter with Nick Margevicius, who has an 0-3 TSR his L3 starts, not to mention a 6.89 ERA and 1.659 WHIP. The Astros have seen him twice already this season. 6* Houston

10* San Francisco (9:40 ET): The Giants lost to the Rockies last night, 6-2. They can’t afford many more results like that. With only seven games left on the regular season schedule, SF is one of five NL teams hovering around .500. There are four playoff spots still available and some of them will go to teams that finish second in their division. The Giants have no such luxury as the top two teams in the NL West (Dodgers, Padres) have already clinched. They need a strong finish this week. 

Colorado now has won two straight days, but still has the 2nd worst run differential (-60) in the entire National League. This is a team that, unlike the Giants, has virtually no shot of reaching the postseason. While they’re now 5-2 vs. SF this season, one of those losses was by a score of 23-5. It was that singular result that really began the Rockies’ “downward spiral” as they’ve been a below .500 team ever since. Tuesday’s starter Kyle Freeland is winless in his L9 tries including an 0-3 TSR his L3.

Meanwhile, the Giants are 3-0 this year with spot starter Drew Smyly on the bump. This will be the first time Smyly takes consecutive turns in the starting rotation. Smyly has 15 strikeouts in the last two starts, which is impressive as he’s been in there for a total of just 7 ⅔ IP. The Rockies have shut down Nolan Arenado for the season, so that weakens their lineup. That’s good news here for Smyly and the Giants, who average 5.5 runs/game at home. The Rockies are averaging only 4.1 rpg on the road. 10* San Francisco

9* Arizona (9:10 ET): Even though eight playoff spots are available in both leagues this season, don’t look for the Rangers or Diamondbacks to be any sort of factor in the postseason hunt this final week of the regular season (other than “spoiler.”) These two also-rans open up a series Tuesday in Chase Field, both simply hoping they won’t finish in last place in their respective divisions. Arizona has had a slightly better season as Texas checks in with the worst record (19-35) and run differential (-79) in the American League. 

The Rangers played yesterday. Arizona did not. It was an 8-5 loss in LA (to the Angels) for the visitors Monday, their fifth loss in the last seven games. One of the two wins during that stretch was 1-0. This is a team hitting a collective .214 for the year and they’re down to .183 those L7 games. Making matters worse for Texas is that Jordan Lyles is on the mound today.He is 0-4 in four road starts with a 7.59 ERA. His season ERA is 7.82. The team has lost his L4 starts overall. 

While just 7-23 in their L30 games, Arizona does have the NL Player of the Week among their ranks. Kole Calhoun homered six times last week and hit .458 overall with a 1.250 slugging percentage. As a team, Arizona has hit much better than Texas has in 2020. Caleb Smith starts for just the 4th time tonight for the D’backs. I think this will be the best outing yet, given the opposition. For what it’s worth, the D’backs do NOT have the worst run differential within their own division (Colorado does) and I think there’s a chance they end up ahead of the Rockies by season’s end. 9* Arizona

9* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Despite only scoring two runs and striking out 16 times, the Rays still managed to beat the Mets last night. They were facing Jacob deGrom, so they’ll take the win, ugly or not. Now Tampa Bay can wrap up the American League East with a win today (or Yankees loss to Toronto), which would guarantee them no lower than a 3-seed in the playoffs. No need to rely on the Blue Jays for help today. Look for the Rays to handle their own business and clinch the division w/ a win.

Having deGrom on the mound obviously gave the Mets their best chance of getting a win in this series. They failed, in large part due to an anemic offense that could manage only four hits. This on the heels of being shutout on Sunday. It was the 6th time in 9 games that the Mets were held to three runs or fewer as they’ve watched their playoff odds shrink rapidly. That kind of effort at the plate will almost never cut it. It certainly won’t tonight if starter Seth Lugo pitches anywhere close to as bad as he did his last time out when he gave up four home runs in 1 ⅔ innings. The Mets somehow still won that game (10-6), but that was lucky.

Blake Snell is likely to shut the Mets down in this game. The Rays starter for Tuesday has allowed 3 ER or less in every start but one this year and that came when he faced the same opponent (Miami) for a second straight time. In five road starts, Snell has a 0.986 WHIP. The Rays are simply better than the Mets even without a clear advantage on the mound. They should have little difficulty winning here. 9* Tampa Bay

7* Philadelphia (3:05 ET): This is the first game of a doubleheader on Tuesday. I grabbed the Nationals +1.5 in last night’s series opener. Turns out that the run line wasn’t even necessary as the reigning WS Champs picked up their first victory of the year (in seven tries) over the Phillies (by a score of 5-1). Some context on that win needs to be shared, however. In addition to all the Phillies’ injuries I discussed in yday’s analysis, they wound up going hitless w/ RISP, committed three errors, were thrown out twice trying to steal and manager Joe Girardi was ejected!

Bryce Harper (back stiffness) did suit up for the Phils last night, though he was 0 for 4. The Phillies badly need to sweep this doubleheader today. Y’day’s loss dropped them into 8th overall in the National League, just one-half game ahead of both the Brewers & Giants for the final playoff spot. It may seem odd to back them a day after fading, but the main reason I like the Phils here in Game 1 is that they have Aaron Nola starting. He’s been the staff’s most reliable starter this season. 

It’s not just that Washington is 10-27 vs. righties this season. They are 0-2 vs. Nola. Both starts saw Nola pitch at least seven innings. He allowed two runs total and the last start saw him allow zero in eight solid innings of work. Nola has the lowest WHIP (0.973) in the Phillies starting rotation. He’ll be opposed by Austin Voth, who has struggled all year long with an 0-5 record (2-7 TSR), 7.17 ERA and 1.672 WHIP. The Nats got their win yday, but are just 1-6 vs. Philly in 2020 and don’t figure to do well in this first game Tuesday. 7* Philadelphia

10* Over Stars/Lightning (8:05 ET): The Stars continue to defy the odds as they took Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals, 4-1. It was their 12th win in the last 16 games, the last nine of which have all come as underdogs on the money line. This run of theirs has caused me great consternation as I’ve been predicting their downfall going all the way back to the Colorado series. Sometimes you need to know when to “cut bait,” I suppose. Here we are turning to the total as I see Game 2 of the SCF going Over. 

Tampa Bay had been rolling through the postseason, losing only four games in the first three rounds. Like Vegas did against Dallas in the Western Conference Finals, the Lightning significantly outshot the Stars in Game 1 (36-20!). But that didn’t matter as Anton Khudobin (.950 save percentage vs. Vegas) stopped all but one of the 36 shots he faced. Khudobin’s run is bound to have a “slip up” or two as no goalie can possibly maintain that kind of save percentage over the long-term, especially when facing so many shots on a consistent basis. 

The Lightning MAY get Steven Stamkos back for Game 2, but regardless I expect a bounce back effort offensively. They are averaging 38.8 shots over the L5 games, an excellent number, yet are also averaging only 2.2 goals over the same frame. Their L4 games have all gone Under or pushed and the Under is now 5-2-2 their L9 games. The Under is 4-0-2 in Dallas’ last six games, so I’d say the Over is “due” to hit for both teams, both of which are averaging 3.0 goals per game this postseason. 10* Over Stars/Lightning

8* St. Louis (8:05 ET): The Cardinals can easily end up finishing fifth in the National League’s playoff bracket. But that would likely mean a first round matchup with the Padres. The division (NL Central) also remains in play for the Cards entering the final week of the season. But they’ll need a big push to overtake the Cubs, who are 3.5 games in front of them. Then you have the matter of the two teams right behind St. Louis - Cincinnati & Milwaukee - both of whom could knock the Redbirds right out of the postseason picture. The bottom line is that the Cards really need to dominate this series with the Royals. 

I like their chances Monday behind Adam Wainwright, who has a 6-2 TSR w/ a 2.87 ERA and 0.975 WHIP. Wainwright is coming off four consecutive quality outings, one of which was a complete game. He’s also pitched well in the past vs. Kansas City, his most common AL opponent, going 5-2 w/ a 3.96 ERA in 13 appearances. The Cardinals come into this series having just taken four straight in a five-game series from another last place team (Pittsburgh). They should have no issues beating another “cellar-dweller.” Last month, they took two of three from the Royals at home. 

Over the weekend, Kansas City did St. Louis no favors as it was swept in Milwaukee. When not facing the Pirates or Tigers, the Royals are just 3-10 this month. With no realistic playoff aspirations, they should be “easy prey” for the Redbirds as I don’t have much confidence in Carlos Hernandez, who allowed three home runs in three innings in his big league debut. Somehow the Royals managed to win that game (all 3 HR’s were solo shots), but they won’t be that fortunate this time around. 8* St. Louis

8* Run Line Washington (6:05 ET): First off, be sure to note that we’re playing the Nationals on the RUN LINE here (+1.5). While it’s been quite the disappointing season overall for the World Series Champs, perhaps the most frustrating thing is an 0-6 head to head record with the division rival Phillies. Even that record up and they might very well still be viable for the playoffs heading into the final week of the regular season. I believe they’re going to get AT LEAST one in this series, so take them on the RL Monday just to be safe. 

Now Washington did play a doubleheader on Sunday. Despite allowing just two runs in 14 innings, they had to settle for a split with Miami. The Nationals lost the first game 2-1 before roaring back to take the second game 15-0. It was their second shutout of the series, although they still ended up dropping three of five overall to the Marlins (teams played two doubleheaders). I realize that Anibal Sanchez (Monday’s starter) has mostly struggled in 2020, but he’ll be facing a severely depleted Phillies lineup tonight.

The Phillies were already without J.T. Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins from their every day lineup. So you can imagine the feeling when Bryce Harper exited Sunday’s game vs. Toronto (a 6-3 loss) with back tightness. Harper’s status is questionable for Monday and beyond. The Phils will have to heavily lean on starter Zach Wheeler tonight, but the problem is he’s 6-10 all-time vs. the Nats with a 4.71 ERA in 19 starts. The Phillies are a sub-.500 team on the road this year, not to mention 31 games under the L3 seasons! 8* Run Line Washington

10* LA Dodgers (3:10 ET): This number (ML) opened far too low and sharp bettors (like myself!) have rightfully pounced on it. I should not have to tell you that the Dodgers are the best team in baseball this year. Just about every metric reinforces that claim. They have the best record (38-15) and by far the best run differential (+122). When looking at the run differential, be aware that only a handful of teams LY (in a full 162-game season) outscored their opponents by that margin. This is a dominant team winning by more than two full runs per game right now!

You need not tell Colorado about the Dodgers. They’ve lost three in a row to them this weekend at Coors Field, every loss coming by 5+ runs. The L2 seasons have seen the Rockies go 6-22 vs. Dodger Blue. They are 13-35 L48 head to head matchups. Making matters worse, the Rockies have dropped 9 of 11 overall. They’ve scored more than three runs just three times in that stretch. That’s even with the L8 games all taking place here at Coors Field!

Not that LA needs more of an advantage, but today they have Tony Gonsolin on the mound. In six starts, Gonsolin has a 0.88 ERA and 0.685 WHIP. Those are sick numbers. By the way, the Dodgers have now won five in a row overall. They are the last opponent Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela wanted to see. Though Senzatela has pitched well this year (even here at home!), he has a 6.50 ERA in nine career appearances vs. LA. The Dodgers are 71-31 in day games the L3 seasons including 10-1 this year. This shapes up as a VERY lopsided affair. 10* LA Dodgers

10* Detroit (1:00 ET):  “The Lions should have won last week” is something Lions fans are probably sick of hearing at this point. However, last week may have taken the cake. Since 2006, NFL teams with a 17+ point lead entering the 4Q were 779-2 SU. That record is now 779-3 SU after the Lions inexplicably gave up three touchdowns to Mitch Trubisky (who had been playing HORRIBLE up to that point) last week. That 27-23 loss marked Detroit’s 11th when leading in the 4Q under Matt Patricia, who started here in 2018. It was their 10th loss in a row overall and they are just 1-9 SU L10 games decided by 8 pts or less. 

Last year’s two meetings between the Packers & Lions pretty much encapsulated the two seasons. Consider that GB never led in regulation in either game. Yet they won both by kicking GW field goals as time expired. Per Elias, it was just the second time EVER a team swept a season series in which it never held a lead in regulation (the other was in 1977). The Packers were an extremely fraudulent 13-3 SU team a year ago as they went 9-1 SU In games decided by 8 pts or less and only outscored opponents by 63 points. For comparison, the 10-6 Vikings had a +104 point differential LY. 

This is clearly a contrarian play as much is being made over the Lions injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Aaron Rodgers had a big game last week in Minnesota, but for some reason always has his share of problems with the Lions. Including LY’s two miraculous escapes, the Packers are 0-6 ATS the L3 years vs. Detroit and just 2-4 SU. Given how lopsided public betting figures to be on this game, it’s interesting the number hasn’t moved. Given that they allowed 7.8 yards per play last week (league-high) to Minnesota, maybe it's the Packers defense that everyone needs to be concerned about. Take the points. 10* Detroit

10* Dallas (1:00 ET): I’ve watched as this line has been bet down all week and decided now is the time to act. I just can’t see the Cowboys, a team I project to finish near the top of the NFC, starting 0-2. I will caution you not to put much stock inthe fact Atlanta gained 500+ yards against Seattle last week. They trailed most of the way and ran a TON of plays. The Falcons also don’t have the same caliber of defense as the Rams, who were able to hold Dallas to 17 points last week. The line move is an overreaction to America’s Team losing a national TV game where they were favored. Lay the points.

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott should have a big game Sunday. Last week, Russell Wilson completed 31 of 35 pass attempts against this Falcons’ defense for 322 yards and four touchdowns. Cornerback is an issue for Atlanta and that’s a problem when facing a Dallas offense that may have the best group of starting WR’s in the league. The “success” this Atlanta defense had in the 2nd half of last season may have saved HC Dan Quinn’s job, but it was artificial, built on facing mostly weak offenses. 

While it is true Atlanta has covered each of its last four road games (were at home LW), it is also true that they were just 4-16 ATS in the 20 previous road games. Dallas has covered three consecutive home openers and this line should be at where it opened. There will be fans present. The Cowboys are a much better team than the Falcons and that should be obvious by the time this one is over. 10* Dallas

10* Napoli (6:30 AM ET): Napoli isn’t accustomed to middle of the table finishes. Yet that’s precisely where the Blues found themselves at the end of LY’s campaign - seventh to be precise. That was their worst finish in Serie A in 11 years. Keep in mind that they have finished 2nd in three of the previous five seasons. Possession numbers were actually quite good in 2019-20. In fact, they were best in the league. Yet Napoli somehow only finished 8th in scoring, a number that should most certainly go up this year. 

Parma finished not far behind Napoli last season, in 11th, which was an improvement on their 14th place finish the year prior. Shockingly, they beat Napoli in both head to head meetings last year - both times by a score of 2-1. But unlike their opponents, I’m not seeing much room for improvement for Parma in 2020-21. 

This being a revenge spot, Napoli will be extra motivated to start its season with a win, especially of an unusually down campaign. 10* Napoli

10* Boston (8:35 ET): There have been two teams this NBA postseason that have completely confounded me - Denver and Miami. While the Nuggets’ somewhat miraculous run seems likely to end in the Conference Finals, Miami is up 2-0 on Boston and now 10-1 SU/ATS overall in the playoffs. They are unbeaten in regulation as the only loss came in OT against Milwaukee, in Game 4 of the last round. But let’s not lose sight of the fact the Heat were trailing the Celtics by 13 points at halftime of the last game. 

Boston also led a majority of the way in Game 1. This despite shooting not shooting nearly as well as Miami did. They shot much better in Game 2 (50%) and also held the Heat in check from three-point range. Game 1 saw Miami make 44.4% of its 3PA, a number I guaranteed would go down in Game 2 and it did. So how did the Heat pull off the Game 2 comeback? It boiled down to basically one bad quarter for the Celtics as they were outscored 37-17 in the third. Speaking of “bad quarters,” Miami has had three in this series where they’ve scored less than 20 points … and yet somehow they’ve won both games! Maddening! 

Boston obviously HAS to win here, or the series would basically be over. While that doesn’t necessarily mean they WILL win, the Celtics have not dropped three in a row since the restart. Before losing Game 2, they’d been on a 6-0 ATS run off a loss dating back to August 6th. Their five playoff losses have been by a total of 19 points. 10* Boston

10* Over Stewart/Holland (8:00 ET): This is a three-round fight at middleweight (185 lbs). Both fighters are off impressive finishes over the summer, but do not be surprised if the first fight on the main card Saturday night requires the heavily favored Holland to rely on the judges to emerge victorious. I’m taking the Over 2.5 rounds in this one. 

Holland had a wild UFC debut two years ago when he lost to Thiago Santos. Since then, he’s gone 5-1 with three finishes. Both of his fights in 2020 have ended with him TKO’ing his opponents - Joaquin Buckley and Anthony Hernandez. Now 18-5 overall in his pro career, Holland has won 14 of his last 17 and two of those losses were by decision. It should also be noted that his last fight did go into the third round, albeit it was then over in 47 seconds. 

Stewart is facing a major size disadvantage in this fight, so it would be best for him to be cautious and pick his spots. He’s won five of his last six UFC fights, but those were all against inferior competition than what he’ll be up against at Fight Night 178. He also lost a “one-off” for the Cage Warriors promotion back in the early stages of the pandemic. Both losses were by decision. In fact, Stewart had a streak of four straight fights ending in a decision before submitting Maki Pitolo last month. This one goes longer than expected. 10* Over Stewart/Holland

10* Under Miami/Louisville (7:30 ET): The season’s 1st matchup of ranked teams takes place in Louisville where the #18 ranked Cardinals host #17 ranked Miami. As was made fairly clear w/ last week’s fade on L’ville, I’m not as high on Scott Satterfield’s team as the market seems to be. But at the same time, it’s hard for me to trust Miami in this spot as they are just 3-23 SU in their L26 away games vs. ranked opponents. But what I do trust are the respective defenses and the fact this O/U line has been bet too high. Take the Under. 

Miami & Louisville combined for “only” 66 points last week. I say “only” because each was facing a C-USA defense. Miami beat a good UAB team 31-14 while Louisville won 35-21 over Western Kentucky. While Miami’s game did stay Under, L’ville’s did not. But L’ville would have stayed Under had it not been for them giving WKU the ball inside the 5-yard line to start BOTH halves. Take those “drives” away and the Louisville defense allowed just 7 points on a TD that came near the end of the game. They allowed only 248 total yards as well and had 10 tackles for loss, plus three sacks.

There have been 65+ points scored in only TWO of Miami’s last 23 games. One of them was against Louisville last year, a 52-27 whipping down in Coral Gables that isn’t about to be repeated as this one is one the road. Even though the ‘Canes’ QB situation has received a major upgrade this season, D’Eriq King threw for just 144 yds last week vs. UAB.. At the same time, Miami’s defense is a lot better than what Louisville faced last week. The Under is 6-0 the L6 times “The U” has been a road underdog. 10* Under Miami/Louisville

8* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET): If you’ve been following my NHL picks this postseason, the first thing I’d like to do is apologize! To be fair, the 1st round went exceptionally well. But things have largely “gone South” in the last two rounds and that’s been because of one team - Dallas. The Stars have toppled Colorado (who was my pick to win the Stanley Cup) and Vegas to make their first Stanley Cup Finals since 2000. To say I am in shock that they were able to oust the top two seeds in the West would be putting it mildly.

It’s not just that Dallas has been outshot this postseason. They’ve been outscored as well (64-63!). They are an extremely fortunate 4-0 in overtime games, which has been key. Every win in the Western Conference Finals was by a single goal and three of the last five wins have been in OT. Vegas outshot them badly, yet it somehow didn’t matter. In the past, I’ve written how the Stars’ scoring was due to regress (and it has). They scored just nine goals in the five games vs. the Golden Knights. In the close out game, they were down 2-0 entering the third period. 

Thankfully, here comes Tampa Bay to hopefully put an end to this Dallas’ madness. The Lightning have rolled through the last three rounds, dropping only four games in the process. Of course, they are 0-2 vs. the Stars this season with both losses coming in OT. But unlike a season ago, the ‘Ning have saved their best hockey for when it matters most. Steven Stamkos likely won’t play in Game 1, but that’s okay as Brayden Point is off the injured list. Stars goalie Anton Khudobin cannot possibly maintain his .950 save percentage from the last series. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Louisiana Tech (7:30 ET): Southern Miss’ opening week loss to South Alabama was considered so bad that HC Jay Hopson ended up resigning! While Hopson openly clashed with the university president over a variety of issues during his tenure, the 32-21 loss to start the season was apparently the straw that broke the camel’s back. Consider that the Golden Eagles were 12-point favorites in that game and South Alabama hadn’t won on the road since 2017. I’m a little shocked that USM opened as the favorite this week, let alone has been bet up! 

The new man in charge in Hattiesburg is Scotty Walden, who is only 30 years old and served as the co-OC under Hopson. While Walden is considered a bright young offensive mind, this is hardly the way one would hope to make their head coaching debut at the FBS level. It’s not like Southern Miss has been a bad team (they had 4 straight winning seasons under Hopson), but a bad home loss to a team like South Alabama followed by a coaching change this early in the season is ominous.

Louisiana Tech has yet to take the field in 2020, but given all the turmoil their opponent has already endured, I don’t think the Bulldogs are at any sort of disadvantage here. Skip Holtz led this team to 10 wins last season and with the state of the USM program, right now the C-USA West Division is really up for grabs. While only eight starters are back in Ruston, Southern Miss looked VERY weak in the trenches against South Alabama. After losing to the Golden Eagles in OT back in 2017, then by one point in 2018, it was all LT LY in Ruston, 45-30. Don’t think for a second Holtz isn’t motivated by the idea of beating USM B2B years for the 1st time since 2013-14. Take the points. 8* Louisiana Tech

7* Cleveland (6:10 ET): If ever the Indians are down, they can always count on the Tigers to bring them back up. After coming into this series on an 8-game losing streak, Cleveland has won two straight in the Motor City, including 1-0 last night. That was a bit “too close for comfort” (I had CLE), but nevertheless the Tribe is now 24-3 vs. the Tigers since the start of last season. I’ll take them again tonight as they look to further strengthen their playoff position.

The Indians got a tremendous start out of Zach Plesac last night. He pitched into the 8th inning and allowed only five hits with 11 strikeouts. In one inning, he retired the side with nine consecutive strikes! I expect another sharp effort on the mound from tonight’s starter Triston McKenzie. This young rookie has a 0.79 WHIP in his 5 starts despite a less than stellar showing vs. Minnesota last Sunday. If you recall from yday’s analysis, Plesac was also coming off an outing against the Twins that was his worst of the season. I said he’d bounce back and he did. Same with McKenzie. 

Yesterday was the 4th time in the L10 games that Detroit was shutout. Two of those four losses came by 14 or more runs! They’ve also allowed 10+ runs four times in the same 10-game stretch, which has seen them go 2-8 and get outscored 72-22 in the process. The only three runs they’ve scored in their L3 games all came in the 8th inning of Thursday’s opener (when they were already down 10-0). Saturday starter Spencer Turnbull has allowed 5 runs in two of his previous three starts. Cleveland is now 8-1 as a road favorite of -125 to -175 this season. 7* Cleveland

8* North Texas (6:00 ET): SMU failed to cover in its opener two weeks ago at Texas State. The Mustangs managed to win by only a 31-24 margin and were favored by 24.5 points. I was more than happy with that result having taken the Under, which cashed with PLENTY of room to spare. Now for the second straight time the Ponies hit the road, albeit this time for an even shorter in-state trip as they will stay within the Metroplex to face North Texas, who crushed its first opponents - FCS Houston Baptist by a score of 57-31. 

Though the win came over a lesser opponent, North Texas should be proud of how they played in the opener. The offense rolled up a school record 721 total yards and 11 different receivers caught a pass. They ran 86 plays! Getting this game in Denton is huge for the Mean Green, not only because they’ve lost 10 straight times away from Apogee Stadium, but also due to the fact the home team is on an 6-1 SU run in this rivalry (nicknamed “The Safeway Bowl.”) UNT has legit revenge for a 22-point loss in Dallas LY. 

SMU has already proven itself unworthy of laying a lot of points on the road. Facing a tougher test this week, I expect them to once again struggle to grind out a SU win. In my analysis of the Texas State game, I mentioned that - even w/ QB Buechele back -  you should look for SMU’s scoring average to DROP from LY’s 41.8. That’s because the top two running backs both graduated. The Mustangs have failed to cover five straight road games, so laying double digits is clearly a BAD idea here. Take the points. 8* North Texas

8* Troy (4:00 ET): Middle Tennessee was humiliated in its opener two weeks ago, losing to Army 42-0. While four turnovers certainly didn’t help, it was clear from the outset that the Blue Raiders were outclassed up in West Point as they found themselves outgained 368-184 for the game. For a MTSU team that fancies itself as “improved” coming into 2020, that was obviously NOT the way it wanted to start the season. Things get no easier this week with a visit from Troy, who is also looking to improve after a disappointing season. 

Troy had won 10 or more games three straight years going into 2019. But Neal Brown left for WVU and Chip Lindsey’s first year on the job didn’t go as well as he’d hoped. The Trojans finished 5-7 SU, their first losing season since 2015. Interesting though is that all five wins LY came by 21 or more points. Three of the seven losses came in one score games while three others were to either Missouri or teams that played for the Sun Belt Championship (App State and Louisiana). I say that if you’re looking for either Middle Tenn or Troy to improve this year, look more so to the latter. 

These programs have not met in the eight years since MTSU left the Sun Belt. They’ll meet twice this season though, a result of the reality we are currently living in. I look for Troy’s offense to have a big day, led by soph QB Gunnar Watson, who has his SEVEN top pass catchers back from a year ago. While MTSU struggled to defend the run last week, it’s not like they are likely to do any better against the pass w/ just three starters back from a year ago. Troy’s offense averaged 458 YPG last year, which was 18th best in the country! The Trojans are 9-3 ATS their L12 games as a road favorite. 8* Troy

10* Boston College (12:00 ET): Duke certainly made a decent accounting of itself last weekend in South Bend. Coming in as a three TD underdog, the Blue Devils only lost by 14 to Notre Dame and it was even closer entering the 4Q when they were down just four. While a noble effort, I’m not sure that I’m willing to call Duke “underrated” at this point. In fact, it might be quite the opposite as ND might simply be “overrated” as are the Blue Devils this week as they are laying too many points here to Boston College.

The primary issue for Duke this week is going from the “hunter” to the “hunted.” While very good as an underdog under HC David Cutcliffe, the Blue Devils’ record as a favorite is shaky. They’ve covered just 4 of the last 14 chances laying points and have lost outright six of the last nine. Preparation is another issue this week as BC has a 1st year HC and QB. Note that while the Blue Devils did hang tough with Notre Dame last week, they were still outgained 441-332 and averaged just 2.4 yards per rush. 

While Duke is coming off a high-profile loss, Boston College has had its full attention on its season opener. This is the latest any BC season has begun since 1981. The Blue Devils were NOT an originally scheduled opponent, but plans obviously had to be changed this year. Jeff Hafley takes over in Chestnut Hill, replacing Steve Addazio, who did not leave the cupboard bare. The Eagles have a stellar offensive line (maybe the ACC’s best?) and QB Phil Jurkovec (a transfer from Notre Dame) seems ready to seize the reins. Keep this in mind: BC is on an 8-4 ATS run as an underdog, including 7-1 when getting between 3.5 and 10 points. 10* Boston College

8* Tulsa (12:00 ET): Oklahoma State comes into 2020 with plenty of fanfare as the Pokes are ranked #11 in the country. Originally set for last week, this game w/ Tulsa had to be pushed back to COVID-19 concerns on the Golden Hurricane’s end. But OSU still had to enjoy its Saturday as a number of their Big 12 rivals (such as Iowa State) lost to unranked foes. Of course, that’s precisely the situation the Cowboys find themselves in and I think this is too many points to lay to a motivated, in-state rival. 

Tulsa won only 4 games LY, but was more competitive than that record suggests. They actually outgained their AAC foes (by 45 YPG) despite going only 2-6 SU in conference play. They had two players chosen in the NFL Draft, so there was some talent. There still is, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. The L3 years have seen the Golden Hurricane held under 30 PPG, but with nine starters back for 2020, we could very well see them get back to the heights of 2015-16 (HC Montgomery’s first two years here) when they averaged a healthy 39.9 PPG. They have a senior QB in Zach Smith and a LOADED backfield as well. 

Of course, OK State has its own offensive firepower that will be on display. But with this being the ONLY non-conference game on the schedule, I don’t see the Cowboys being particularly motivated. They did beat Tulsa 40-21 last season (on the road), but that margin won’t cut it this time and the Golden Hurricane are a much stronger team this year as they head into Stillwater on Saturday. Though #11/#12 in the AP/Coaches Poll, OSU is just 17th in SP+ and I have Tulsa ranked even higher than their SP+ rating. 8* Tulsa

8* Eintracht Frankfurt (9:30 ET): I thought Eintracht Frankfurt was deserving of a better fate than a middle of the table finish last season. Some ill-timed defensive lapses definitely cost them, but baseline statistics say they were better than their 13-15-6 record indicated. Only the top five had more goals scored. We all know that reigning Bundesliga champ Bayern Munich remains perhaps the best team in all of Europe. But with the likes of Borussia Dortmund likely to regress in 2020, the path to the Champions League is there for Eintracht Frankfurt. Look for Adi Hutter’s Eagles to start the season with a big win. 

Arminia Bielefeld is one of the two promoted teams in the Bundesliga this season. They were a pretty defensive minded club last season in winning the 2, giving up by far the fewest number of goals down there. But I worry about a lack of firepower as they step up in competition. Possession numbers weren’t that great against a caliber of clubs they’ll no longer be facing. I’d be shocked if Arminia made much noise at all this season. 

The Bundesliga has decided to allow fans, so that’s another edge for Frankfurt, not that they needed it for this one. This was a Europa League semi-finalist two years ago. It was a down 2019-20, but they should rebound. Arminia last triumphed against Frankfurt in the 2006-07 Bundesliga campaign. They also suffered a shock exit in DFB-Pokal at Monday at the hands of Rot-Weiss Essen. Meanwhile, Frankfurt won its tuneup 2-1 over 1860 Munich. They also won five of their final seven Bundesliga matches LY. 8* Eintracht Frankfurt

8* San Diego (9:40 ET): Along with the White Sox over in the American League, the Padres have emerged as one of the nice “success stories” of the 2020 MLB season. San Diego is in great shape right now, having scored the 2nd most runs in all of baseball. Their WL record is second only to the Dodgers among all NL teams and their run differential is third best in all of baseball. While they just dropped two of three at home to LA (disappointing), San Diego should find this series against bottom-feeder Seattle quite conducive to success.

A nice edge the Padres have coming into Friday’s opener is that they were off Thursday. Seattle was busy hosting San Francisco yesterday and lost 6-4. The Mariners dropped both games in that series and have lost six of their last nine overall. As was pretty much expected, the M’s are having a rough year as they’ve been outscored by 52 runs, which is the 6th worst differential in all of baseball. They are easily MLB’s “worst third place team” right now.

Oh, by the way - this game is being played in San Diego, NOT Seattle. This is due to ongoing issues with the air out on the West Coast. Again, like having yesterday off, it’s an added advantage the Padres have that they didn’t really need. But we’ll take it! Though they will still come up to bat first, I don't think that's as big a deal as the game taking place in Petco Park where the Padres have gone 19-8 this season. Chris Paddack gets the start. He’ll be looking to get back on track after spraining his ankle on Sept 10. He should be fine facing a Seattle lineup that hasn’t hit well its last eight games. The Mariners go with Yusei Kikuchi, who has allowed 4 or more runs in three of his previous five starts. 8* San Diego

8* Milwaukee (8:10 ET): Kansas City has made a bit of a surprising surge, winning seven of its last eight ball games. I had them Wednesday when they downed the Tigers 4-0, which was their third shutout victory in the last seven games! But coming off consecutive series vs. lightweights Detroit & Pittsburgh, I think the Royals are in for a bit of a “rude awakening” tonight in Milwaukee as they face a Brewers team that has also posted three shutout wins in its L9 games including one the last time they took the field.

The Brew Crew just gone done playing a five-game series with St. Louis which featured two doubleheaders. It should be noted that the teams split both twin bills, but Milwaukee won the one “standalone” game, 18-3. Like the Royals, Milwaukee had Thursday off, which was much needed after playing five games in three days. Unlike the Royals, the Brewers are still very much alive in the playoff race. They should be the more motivated team this weekend.

While Friday starter Adrian Houser is not responsible for any of the Brewers’ three recent shutouts, I do think he’ll pitch well tonight. That might sound like a “leap of faith” considering recent efforts (he’s 0-5 L7 starts) including him being on the WRONG end of a 12-0 loss to the Cubs last Saturday. But five of the seven runs charged to Houser in that one were unearned. Danny Duffy goes for the Royals and it will be interesting to see how he does given an unexpected three extra days off between starts. Duffy was supposed to start Tuesday, but missed the team plane and thus got himself scratched. The bottom line is that KC is just 2-9 this season as a ML road dog of +125 to +175. They are 19-42 in that same range the L3 seasons. 8* Milwaukee

7* Cleveland (7:10 ET): So it turns out that all the Indians needed to snap an 8-game losing streak was a matchup with their favorite foe. Since the start of last season, the Tribe is 23-3 vs. the Tigers. They are now 4-0 at Comerica Park in 2020. While they may have struggled as of late, where Cleveland has been exceptional this year is as a road favorite of -125 or higher. They are now 14-2 when priced in that range and they’re back there again tonight as they look to make it two in a row over the hapless Tigers. Look for them to get it done.

Winning last night was no problem for the Indians as they had ace Shane Bieber on the mound (closed -300 on the ML!). Still, it had to feel good to win in 10-3 fashion considering the eight straight losses that preceded last night’s victory. Bieber didn’t allow a run until the 8th (not sure why he was left in when it was 10-0), meaning Detroit had gone 16 consecutive innings w/o scoring a run. The Tigers were also shutout on Wednesday by KC (I had the Royals!), the fourth time they’d been shutout this month. Had they not scored the three “meaningless” runs last night, it would have been the Tigers’ third shutout loss by 10+ runs in the L9 games. This team is sinking fast. 

Zach Plesac may not be Bieber, but he does have a 2.20 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in six starts. I also like his 39-3 KW ratio. Given those numbers, you’d think he’d have a better TSR than 3-3. Plesac is off his worst outing to date, but that was against Minnesota and he should easily bounce back tonight. Michael Fulmer gets the nod here for the Tigers and he still hasn’t won this year in eight tries. He has a 9.27 ERA and 2.149 WHIP to boot. In 10 career starts vs. Cleveland, Fulmer has a 7.46 ERA. 7* Cleveland

10* Under Bengals/Browns (8:20 ET): It shouldn’t be all that surprising that this total is low. The two teams combined for a total of 19 points in Week 1, both losing in the process. Cleveland was blown out 38-6 in Baltimore while Cincinnati lost a close one (16-13) to the Chargers. We’ve got two former #1 overall draft choices starting at QB in this Thursday night matchup, including the most recent. While that sounds exciting, I saw some things in Week 1 that lead me to believe both Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow may continue to struggle here in 2020. 

Mayfield enters his third season in Cleveland with tempered expectations. He’s already on his third different head coach and third different playcaller since coming into the league. With COVID limiting offseason interaction, my guess is that it’s going to take awhile for Mayfield and 1st year Browns HC Kevin Stefanski to get on the same page. Mayfield didn’t look good from the outset last week, throwing an interception on the very first drive and finishing with only 189 yards despite being down virtually the entire game. The Browns averaged just 4.5 yards per play against the Ravens.

Burrow only threw for 193 yards in his NFL debut and missed some throws. The Cincinnati offense averaged just 4.4 yards per play. For both Mayfield and Burrow, this second game being on a short week doesn’t help. The Under has hit in each of Cleveland’s last five Thursday night contests. The Under is also 8-2-1 in the Bengals’ last 11 road games. As far as the defenses are concerned, the Bengals only allowed 16 pts last week and the Browns weren’t as bad as you think despite giving up 38 points. Four of Baltimore’s six scoring drives started at midfield or closer. 10* Under Bengals/Browns

10* Boston (7:05 ET): Tip your cap to Miami for still being unbeaten in regulation this postseason. They are now 9-1 SU/ATS overall since the playoffs began. The only loss came in OT when they were looking to sweep Milwaukee and blew a late lead. Ironically, they needed overtime to rally and pick up the Game 1 victory over the Celtics. The Heat definitely has me “scratching my head” a bit as they are overachieving in my eyes. Game 1 marked the team’s NINTH OT win this season, easily the most in the league. I feel they’ve been quite fortunate throughout the 2019-20 campaign. 

Despite losing Game 1, I don’t think Boston should necessarily be hanging its collective head. By his own admission, Kemba Walker was “terrible” as he needed 19 shots just to get 19 points (was 1 of 9 on 3PA). It was Walker’s third straight under 20 points and 32.0% shooting. Yet the Celtics still only lost by three in overtime and actually led most of the way. They were up double digits entering the 4Q! And Miami shot much better than they did, especially from three-point range. 

This is the first time Boston has trailed in a series this postseason. They swept the 76ers in the first round, then won the first two games against Toronto. Three of the Celtics’ four losses this postseason have either come at the buzzer or in overtime. The four losses are by a total of 14 points. They pretty clearly were a better team than Toronto (despite needing seven games) and my power ratings have them as the better team here. Since August 6th, they are a perfect 6-0 ATS if they failed to cover in the previous game. Lay the short number in a pretty obvious bounce back situation. 10* Boston

10* Under Mets/Phillies (7:05 ET): Even after a 5-4 win last night here in Philly, the Mets’ postseason odds aren’t looking too good. Making matters worse is that Jacob deGrom was forced to exit early last night due to a hamstring spasm. All things considered, the Mets should feel pretty fortunate that they won Wednesday. deGrom gave up four runs in two innings, which put them in a serious hole. But they were able to rally for five of their own, putting them 2.5 games back of the Phillies for the final NL playoff berth. 

For the Phillies, last night was a blown opportunity. Being up 4-0 early on deGrom is an advantage few teams get to enjoy. It marked the 5th consecutive game that the Phils failed to score more than four runs. If there is a “silver lining,” it’s not just that they have the 2.5 game edge over the Mets in the standings, but also Aaron Nola will be on the mound Thursday. Nola was originally going to start yesterday, but was bumped back a day to allow Zack Wheeler to make his 2020 debut. Nola is the staff ace as he’s posted a 2.44 ERA and 0.888 WHIP in nine starts this year. He is 8-2 w/ a 3.00 ERA in 15 career starts vs. the Mets.

Even though the Mets are 0-4 as a road dog of +125 to +175 and the Phillies are 10-1 as home favorites of -125 to -175, I’m not going to back the home team here, even w/ Nola starting. This is for two reasons. One is that their every day lineup has been decimated by injuries (explains the lack of scoring recently). Also the Mets have Seth Lugo starting. Lugo has solid numbers (2.65 ERA overall, 0.96 WHIP on the road) and the Under is 3-0-1 in his four starts. Tonight’s rubber match should belong to the starting pitchers. 10* Under Mets/Phillies

10* Under Rangers/Astros (8:10 ET): The overall numbers for Houston starter Lance McCullers, Jr this season are not particularly inspiring. However, it is quite clear that when he’s on the mound at home, McCullers is a much different pitcher. He’s 3-0 in his four Minute Maid Park appearances with the team winning all four. McCullers has a 1.82 ERA and 0.892 WHIP here as well, so it’s definitely more “good” than “lucky.” Tonight he’s facing one of the worst offensive teams in the league, so it should be more “good!”

Tonight marks McCullers return to the rotation after a 10-day stint on the DL. His last start was one to forget as he failed to record a single out before giving up three runs. He hasn’t made a full start since Aug 29th when here at home he held the first place A’s to just two runs (one unearned) in six innings. Clearly, he was bothered by the neck issue in that last start. Fresh and ready to go, I expect another strong effort on the mound tonight from McCullers. The Rangers had just four baserunners in last night’s 4-1 loss here and are last in the American League in runs scored, batting average and OPS.

Not all the news was good last night for Houston as they near a 4th straight playoff appearance. Just as Jose Altuve returned to the lineup, Carlos Correa went down with an injury. Altuve did score a run in his return (after walking), but was 0 for 3 otherwise. I’m fully aware of how brutal Kyle Gibson has been this year for the Rangers, but Houston isn’t the same team offensively as they’ve been in years past. In fact, they are batting a collective .203 the L7 games. With the home team being such a large favorite, my hope is we avoid playing the bottom of the ninth tonight. That always helps the Under. 10* Under Rangers/Astros

10* Kansas City (7:10 ET): The Royals are obviously not road favorites very often and it might shock you that they are here, coming off a 6-0 loss to the Tigers last night. But prior to that loss, KC had won six in a row including two shutouts and two wins by 10 or more runs. The Tigers had certainly been trending in a much different direction as they’d dropped five of six going into yday while being outscored 57-13! During that stretch, they suffered losses of 14-0 and 19-0! The Tigers never should have been considered a serious playoff contender as is obvious by the fact they are a home dog here against Kansas City. 

The last time Brady Singer got the baseball for the Royals, he delivered eight innings of one-hit ball against Cleveland. He didn’t allow the hit until the 8th inning and the team won that game 11-1. It was certainly Singer’s best start of the year. Seeing as the Tigers had been held to three runs or less in five of their six games previous to yesterday, I fully anticipate Singer pitching well yet again. 

An interesting subplot of last night’s game is that the Royals were supposed to start Danny Duffy, but he missed the team’s plane and had to be scratched! Duffy certainly would have pitched better than replacement Jakob Junis, who allowed five runs in just 2 ⅓ IP. Now obviously it would have helped had the Royals scored some runs. They will tonight against Tarik Skubal, who allowed six runs in two innings his last start and now has a 7.27 ERA for the season. The Tigers made a number of roster moves in the L24 hours that suggest they won’t really be trying (to win) the rest of the way. 10* Kansas City

10* LA Angels (9:40 ET): The Angels have been one of the bigger money-burners in the league this season as they are down 12.2 units entering the week. But they’ve cut into that deficit in recent days, winning both Saturday & Sunday in Colorado, the latter being our 10* Game of the Week. The Halos have been reliable as a ML favorite of -125 to -175 at home, going 45-26 in that price range the L3 seasons including a 4-1 mark here in 2020. I like them quite a bit tonight facing a team that’s been even worse to bet on, Arizona, who is -14.0 units for the season. 

We’ve got a rather ugly pitching matchup for Tuesday’s opener as Madison Bumgarner and Julio Teheran are a combined 0-7 this year. These are two former All Stars! The numbers of both indicate they each probably deserve to be winless, although Teheran did pitch well against San Diego (highest scoring team in the league) two starts ago and Bumgarner has been a bit better since returning from injury. Still, I favor Teheran as he’s gone 4-1 with a 2.47 ERA in his career vs. Arizona.

The D’backs are in last place in the NL West with no shot of making the playoffs. Their -49 run differential is the 2nd worst in the National League right now. They’ve lost seven of nine including two in a row to a bad Seattle team over the weekend. Over those L9 games, Arizona has scored 4 runs or less seven times, so that’s another reason to like Teheran’s chances here. The D’backs are just 6-18 on the road, averaging 3.4 runs per game with a team batting average of .214. 10* LA Angels

10* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): The Clippers letting this series get to a 7th game is pretty inexcusable. They have led by 16+ points in four of the six games, including each of the last two, both of which they somehow lost. The Game 6 collapse was stunning in nature as LA led by 18 nearing the midway point of the 3Q only to get blitzed the rest of the way. Denver ended up shooting a series-high 54.1% from the field, including 12 of 25 from 3-pt range, something that isn’t going to happen again here. I have no choice but to take the better team in Game 7.

The Nuggets are now 5-0 SU/ATS when facing elimination this postseason. They are trying to become the first team in the history of the NBA Playoffs to come back from two 3-1 series deficits in the same postseason as that’s what they did vs. Utah in the last round. Keep in mind that I felt this was a lucky team BEFORE the playoffs got underway as they had a league-high 9 wins by 3 pts or less during the regular season. With all the come from behind wins, I believe Denver is living on borrowed time. While perfect SU/ATS when TRAILING in a playoff series, they are just 4-12 ATS when TIED in a playoff series the L3 years.

The Clippers are 14-5 ATS off an outright loss as a favorite this season as well as 8-1 ATS off a loss by 10 or more. The large shooting discrepancy from Game 6 (Clippers shot just 41% as a team) won’t exist again tonight. While the franchise is now 0-7 SU in games when they have a chance to make the Conference Finals, this is the night that streak FINALLY comes to an end. Consider that Denver was outscored by 48 points in its first four games vs. Utah. It truly is a miracle that they are even still playing. Expect LA to get another big lead, only this time they’ll hold it. 10* LA Clippers

8* Under Nuggets/Clippers (9:05 ET): The Under has cashed in eight consecutive NBA Game 7’s, including the recently completed Celtics-Raptors series. I think that game is a good “comp” for handicapping this Nuggets-Clippers Game 7 as it featured an O/U line that was significantly lower than the previous six games, five of which had already stayed Under. The Under is 4-0-2 in this series and while the previous low O/U line was 214.0 (last game), oddsmakers know what they’re doing with the total and so do I. 

Let’s not forget what happened when Denver played a Game 7 in the last round. The final score there was 80-78 against Utah. They shot 37.3% in that winner-take-all game while holding the Jazz to 38.0%. Since starting 13-1 Over in the bubble, things have taken a dramatic turn for the Nuggets in this series as it pertains to the total. As I already mentioned above, we’ve yet to see any game go Over. While five of the six games have seen more than 209.5 total pts scored, Denver isn’t going to be shooting 54.1% again from the field as they did in Game 6.

Though I do like the Clippers to win and cover Game 7, Denver’s defense does need to be respected. After four disastrous efforts to start the Jazz series, the Nuggets have allowed just 1.08 pts per possession, which would have ranked 7th in the league during the regular season. They’ve held the Clippers to just under 42.0% shooting the L3 games. But where I feel the Nuggets will specifically “cool off” in Game 7 is from behind the arc. They’ve made 46% of their 3-pt attempts in the L2 games. For the year, they’re at just 36.4%. 8* Under Nuggets/Clippers

8* Oakland (8:40 ET): The A’s have played three doubleheaders in the last 7 days, one of which was yday (split w/ Seattle), but do not expect any kind of letdown as they open a series with Colorado on Monday. The AL West leaders have some revenge on their mind here as they dropped a pair of home games to the Rockies early in the season. That was during an 11-3 start to the season for Colorado. Since then, they’ve gone just 10-22 with September being particularly brutal thus far. Go with the favorite in this one. 

Having played so many games (10!) in the last week, Oakland could obviously use a good start here and fortunately they’ve got Sean Manaea on the mound. The team has won his L5 starts w/ Manaea going 4-0 the L4 with a 1.61 ERA. Even better, he has a 0.765 WHIP in the L3. Last time out was his best start to date as he went seven innings and allowed just one run on two hits against Houston. Manaea did not face Colorado in the prior series.

For Colorado, the month began with a 23-5 loss to the Giants. They’ve never really recovered. After dropping two in a row to the Angels this past weekend, the Rockies’ record in the L13 games is just 4-9. Even their hitter-friendly home park couldn’t do much over the weekend for the scuffling lineup as they scored just 2 and 3 runs in those losses. I faded them Sunday as my Game of the Week and they’re matched up with an even stronger opponent here, one that wants revenge for the early season sweep. The Rockies are 0-3 as home dogs of +125 to +175 this season. 8* Oakland

10* Tampa Bay (8:05 ET): This marks the first time I’ve played a game in the series and I’m checking in just in time to catch the Lightning close out the clearly overmatched Islanders. While New York was allowing the fewest number of goals per game since the restart, that was before running into the Tampa Bay juggernaut, which has scored 17 goals in the four games thus far. In retrospect, Game 1 was an ominous sign when the Isles were whipped 8-2. That made it pretty clear this series wasn’t going long and look for TB to close it out in five. 

Although they’ve yet to finish off this series, you have to consider Tampa Bay the favorite to win the Stanley Cup right now. They’ve been incredibly impressive so far in the bubble, going 13-4 SU overall and never losing B2B games. After a bit of a slow start offensively, they are now back to averaging 3.4 goals per game since the restart, which is right in line with their season average. That they’ve increased their scoring against what had been the league’s best defensive team is very impressive. 

The Islanders simply lack the firepower to keep up here. Their top line has combined for just one single point in the L3 games and it was an assist from Matthew Barzal. In the team’s three losses in this series, the Isles have scored only four goals. The 5-3 win in Game 3 looks to be a total aberration as the Lightning have been in control of this series from the start. It doesn’t help matters that TB is 21-7 SU this season when coming off a win by 2+ goals. 10* Tampa Bay

10* Under Heat/Celtics (6:35 ET): Miami and Boston may not have been the teams you expected in the Eastern Conference Finals, but here they both are, ready to meet with the winner going on to play for a NBA Title. Miami has been incredibly impressive in the postseason, first sweeping Indiana and then needing only five games to oust top-seed Milwaukee. The Heat are 8-1 SU/ATS in the playoffs with the lone loss coming in overtime. Boston is coming off a 7-game series with Toronto, but also swept its 1st round series (vs. Philadelphia). My own personal power ratings do favor the Celtics in this series, but only by the slightest amount.

Boston’s defense has been tremendous in the first two rounds as they have not allowed more than 106 points in regulation in any game. As a result, the Under is now 11-2 in their L13 games overall. All season long, this has been a strong defensive team. I was really impressed how they held Toronto under 100 pts in regulation for five of the seven games. Though the series did go the distance, the Celtics were pretty clearly the superior team as they posted two double digit victories while two of the three losses came either at the buzzer or in double OT. 

It was a similarly impressive defensive effort from the Heat in the last round against the Bucks, who came in as the highest scoring team in the league. Miami allowed just 106.0 PPG in the five games and remember one of those went to OT. They also held Boston to 43.5% shooting, including 10 of 33 from 3-pt range, in a 112-106 win back on August 4th. If there’s one concern for the Heat, it’s that they’ve been off for a whole week. So don’t be surprised if their own 3-pt shooting “cools off” here in Game 1. 10* Under Heat/Celtics

8* Vegas (8:05 ET): I feel I’ve already beaten this into the ground, but Dallas continuing to win this postseason just shocks me. They were on the verge of falling down 3-1 in the series with Calgary, but came back to win that series. They were decided underdogs in the last series with Colorado, yet won in seven games. It’s been more of the same with Vegas in the Western Conference Finals, which the Stars now lead 3-1 despite having been an underdog every game. Tonight will mark the 12th consecutive game in which Dallas has been a dog on the ML. 

The Stars scored 42 goals in the 10 games prior to this series getting underway. Vegas did a good job slowing them down in the first three games (just 4 goals allowed) before falling apart in the second period of Game 4 (lost 2-1). Despite losing on the scoreboard, the Golden Knights have looked like the better team in both Games 3 & 4 in which they outshot Dallas 40-23 and 33-20. The last game was particularly frustrating as Vegas led 1-0 and had outshot the Stars 23-9 when they shockingly allowed B2B goals.

This is just the 2nd time in the bubble that Vegas has dropped two in a row. The other came in the last series against Vancouver when they lost Games 5 & 6. They responded with a 3-0 shutout in Game 7, saving their season. They’ll now need to win three in a row to save the season, but I definitely think they’ll get this one. They are the better team. Both teams have six goals in the series, Dallas getting theirs on far fewer shot attempts. This isn’t sustainable. The Golden Knights are 11-3 SU after scoring 2 goals or less the previous game. 8* Vegas

10* Minnesota (8:10 ET): The White Sox have surpassed even the most optimistic projections for 2020 as they lead the AL Central w/ a 30-16 record and have a +77 run differential after winning the L4 games. They are also a MLB-best +12.4 units at the pay window. However, still hot on their heels are the Twins, last year’s division champ. Entering this series, the division deficit is just one game for Minnesota and they have taken two of three in each of the previous two series between the teams.

Minnesota is also favored for Monday’s opener, which may surprise some given how hot the White Sox have been recently. However, the Twins just swept a pretty good Cleveland team and are 9-2 L11 themselves. They send Jose Berrios out to the hill tonight. Berrios has faced Chicago twice in 2020 and the Twins are 2-0 in those games. The last one saw him go six innings and allow just 1 ER on 3 hits. Berrios has allowed 3 ER or less in four consecutive starts as well as six of the last eight. 

Since losing two in a row to the Twins to start September, the White Sox have won 8 of 9. But looking at who they’ve faced - KC, Pittsburgh and Detroit - they clearly should have won most of those ballgames. Beware Dylan Cease’s 1.305 WHIP. I say that about Monday’s starter because he has a relatively low ERA, but that WHIP says he’s been a bit fortunate not to have allowed more runners to score. Cease does not strike out many opposing hitters nor has he made it a full six innings in any of the L3 starts. This will be his first time facing Minnesota since a disastrous outing over a year ago when he allowed 8 runs in 2 IP. 10* Minnesota

10* NY Giants (7:15 ET): Pittsburgh is certainly being priced as a playoff team entering 2020. They have better than 50% odds at the books and should end up being favored in 9 or 10 games, barring significant injuries. Of course, speaking of significant injuries, the Steelers lost Ben Roethlisberger early last season and wound up getting 13 very subpar games at QB from the hideous combo of Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodgers. Big Ben is set to return for ‘20, but how likely is that he’ll be his old self? 

The Giants enter the year with very little expectations. They were 4-12 SU in 2019. QB Daniel Jones, who many questioned going so high in the draft, had a bit of a rough rookie campaign. The team was tied with the Chargers for worst TO margin in the league (-17). Jones lost 11 fumbles himself, but did throw a team rookie-record 24 TD passes. Saquon Barkley should no longer be limited by an ankle injury that slowed him down most of last season. I’m counting on Barkley to have a strong Week 1 performance here. 

This is a lot of points to lay, on the road, in Week 1. On Sunday, we saw two road favorites of a similar size - Philadelphia and Indianapolis both lose OUTRIGHT. I’m very much “playing against the line move” here as I’m not convinced Roethlisberger will be the “Big Ben of old” and the Giants should be more competitive for 1st year HC Joe Judge. The Steelers have struggled as road favorites under HC Mike Tomlin, going 2-5-1 ATS their L8 times, and they are also just 2-7 ATS L9 season openers. Take the points. 10* NY Giants

8* Under Bucs/Saints (4:25 ET): America’s “Game of the Week” takes place in New Orleans and it’s the 1st EVER matchup (in league history!) of two 40+ year old QB’s. It’s two of the all-time greats with Tom Brady leading the Bucs (how weird does that sound?) and Drew Brees leading the Saints. In terms of how many points are going to be scored, the expectation is for a lot, given the offensive firepower that exists in both sides. Yet, despite that overwhelming sentiment (from bettors), the O/U line has come DOWN. This is a classic fade the public situation.

It’s easy to understand why the public will love the Over in the situation. Both Tampa Bay-New Orleans meetings last season went Over, each seeing 50+ points scored. Now the Bucs add Brady to the mix. But expecting Brady to be the “Brady of old” after this unusual offseason, at least right off the bat, seems like wishful thinking. It seems like there’s a good chance Brady may be without top WR Mike Evans, which would be a huge loss for the Bucs. Bottom line: I don’t see TB moving up and down the field in this first game. 

We’ve also got two of the premier run defenses from a season ago. Tampa Bay’s defense was actually #1 in the league at stopping the run! New Orleans was #4. The Saints’ defense returns 10 of 11 starters from last year. The one new starter is Malcolm Jenkins, who makes the secondary demonstrably better. With all the focus being on Brady & Brees here, don’t be surprised if it's the respective defenses “stealing the headlines.” 8* Under Bucs/Saints

10* LA Angels (3:05 ET): The Angels have been a big disappointment this season as they are dead LAST in all of MLB in net units (-14.5 units entering yesterday), meaning they’ve been the WORST team to bet on during the 2020 season. But they did win last night, 5-2 here in Colorado, thanks to a three-run HR from Jared Walsh in the top of the 11th. As disappointing as the Halos have been thus far, I look for them to finish this series strong as the Rockies are in a terrible way right now, having lost 8 of 12. 

Colorado’s season started out well enough, but took a dire turn here in September, which began with a 23-5 loss to the Giants. Since then, they haven’t been the same team. They have the second worst run differential in the National League right now and will be sending out Ryan Castellani Sunday. Castellani has an 0-3 TSR at Coors Field this year and a 8.02 ERA/1.621 WHIP. His numbers from his L3 starts overall are pretty similar. He’s made it through six innings just once. While his last start did result in the Rockies winning as a +240 underdog (against the Dodgers), Castellani gave up three home runs in his four innings of work. 

I think it “speaks volumes” to see the Angels so decidedly favored in this rubber match. They’ve won 7 of 10, which included a sweep of the Astros. They’ve also got Andrew Heaney on the mound. Heaney has a 1.83 ERA and 0.864 WHIP his L3 starts, which includes quality efforts against San Diego and Seattle where he allowed a combined 1 run in 14 IP. Another key here, and this obviously decided the game last night, is that the Rockies’ bullpen has been terrible this year (8.71 ERA and 1.70 WHIP here at home!) 10* LA Angels

8* Toronto (3:07 ET): I had the Mets in the opener of this three-game set, but that was all about taking Jacob deGrom and sure enough he led his team to an 18-1 victory on Friday, a result that was far better than I (or any Mets’ fans for that matter) could have dreamed of. Make no mistake about it, that result is NOT in any way indicative of the respective seasons these teams are having. Toronto is almost certainly playoff bound in the American League while the Mets are struggling to stay relevant in the National League. 

Sure enough, the Blue Jays bounced back on Saturday with a 3-2 victory. While the Jays’ offense has sputtered a bit of late (three runs or fewer each of the L4 games), I don’t think they’ll need many runs today behind Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has a 1.20 ERA in eight career starts against the Mets. He’s very familiar with them from his time spent over in the National League. Ryu did struggle his last time out, but that was against the Yankees. Prior to that, he’d allowed 2 ER or less in six consecutive starts!

The Mets have yet to win this season when priced between +125 and +175 on the road. They are 0-3 in that role. They were priced as pretty significant favorites in the first two games, so only coming away with a split has to be considered a disappointment. David Peterson will start Sunday’s game. He gave up five runs in just two innings his last time out. While the Mets had gone 4-1 in Peterson’s first five starts, he hasn’t pitched on the road since August 2nd. Look for the home team to win the series. 8* Toronto

10* Carolina (1:00 ET): Call me crazy, but I think Carolina is going to win more games than expected this season. That still might mean a last place finish in the NFC South, but new HC Matt Rhule has certainly inherited worse projects at Baylor and Temple than what he’s faced with now in the NFL. Perhaps the biggest reason for optimism would be QB Teddy Bridgewater, who is a remarkable 16-2 ATS in his career as an underdog, the best such record in the Super Bowl era. Bridgewater will be coached by not just Rhule, but also QB Coach Joe Brady, who engineered the record-setting LSU offense last season.

While the Panthers return the fewest number of snaps from a year ago, Las Vegas is #2 in that department. I am not particularly high on the Raiders going into their first year in Sin City. This was a team that somehow won 7 games despite getting outscored by 106 points. This year, I am projecting them to finish LAST in the AFC West. Though it’s only Week 1, the Silver and Black have never fared well in these 1 PM ET kickoffs and I don’t suspect that’s about to change. The team is also 0-3-1 ATS its L4 times as a road favorite.

If my belief that Carolina is going to win more games than expected holds, then this is precisely the kind of game they are likely to “steal.” The Raiders didn’t even average 20 PPG last season, the third year in a row that was the case, and will be starting two rookie receivers. Then you have the defense, which in three years under coordinator Paul Guenther has ranked 31st in points allowed and 32nd (last) in yards per play. That unit is breaking in five new starters. Even before factoring in any kind of homefield advantage here for the Panthers, I feel this line is too high. Take the points. 10* Carolina

10* Detroit (1:00 ET): Matt Patricia enters 2020 firmly on the hot seat in the Motor City. Fortunately for him, I project his Lions to improve upon LY’s 3-12-1 SU record quite a bit. It starts with better health, particularly at the QB position. In the eight games with Matt Stafford in the lineup, the Lions were pretty competitive (3-4-1). They were 0-8 without him, getting subpar QB play. This was a team that SHOULD have finished with a better record though; they led at the half six times. They were 3-8 SU in one-score games. 

The Lions’ pythagorean win differential last year was -2.9. That measures actual vs. expected wins, the latter based on point differential. Believe it or not, in a wide open NFC North, I can see the Lions going from worst to first! The division’s two playoff teams from last year - Green Bay and Minnesota - are both set to regress. Chicago, who is Detroit’s Week 1 opponent, is a bit of a “wild card.” 

Bears HC Matt Nagy surprised some by electing to start Mitchell Trubisky at QB here. The team ponied up big bucks to sign Nick Foles in the offseason. The Lions are 0-4 SU vs. the Bears the L2 years. All but one of those losses came by one score. But Chicago covered only one road game all season LY and is 0-6 ATS L6. This is only the 2nd time Detroit has been a division favorite under Patricia. Look for Stafford to air it out and justify the price range. 10* Detroit

6* Bobby Green (8:35 ET): While it’s a lot of juice to lay, in my opinion Bobby Green is worth the investment here in this three round fight at welterweight (170 lbs). Green has fought a lot in his career, especially during the pandemic, and this will be his third fight in as many months! He’s won each of the last two, both by decision, and should have little difficulty here in finishing off Alves.

Green’s 26-10-1 record is a tad bit misleading as he’s been on the wrong end of some questionable decisions. Each of Green’s previous SEVEN fights have gone to the cards with him winning three, losing three and another ruled a draw. I say it’s “high time” for him to finish somebody and not leave things up to the three cageside observers. Green likes to stand and strike (plus talk a little trash!) and will have a major advantage when this fight is up off the mat.

Alves has not fought since October, so it’s a long layoff. I think he’s at a severe disadvantage going against an opponent that’s been so active recently. Alves is landing only 43% of his strikes, which is a bad number, and coming off a KO loss to Scott Holtzman. He’ll want to take Green down in this fight, but again his takedown percentage of 40% indicates that’s easier said than done. It’s not just that Alves hasn’t fought since October. He has just seven fights in the last seven years! 6* Bobby Green

10* Vegas (8:10 ET): The Golden Knights seemingly did everything right in Game 3, with the exception of winning on the scoreboard. They outshot Dallas 40-23, which should theoretically translate into an easy victory. But instead it was a 3-2 loss in overtime with goalie Robin Lehner uncharacteristically letting in two weak goals during regulation. Dallas is now 3-0 in OT games this postseason, which certainly feels a bit “lucky,” while Vegas now trails in a series for the 1st time this postseason. The Knights have only lost B2B games once in the bubble, that coming in the last series to Vancouver when they were already up 3-1. It’s their “turn” to win tonight.

As they’ve done most of the postseason, Vegas has dominated the puck the L2 games. They had the big edge in shots in Game 3 and it was 32-24 in their Game 2 shutout win (3-0). They are averaging nearly 12 more shots per game than their opponents throughout the playoffs. An 18-shot third period on Thursday seemed like they were constantly on the verge of taking the lead, but alas it was for naught. But if Vegas dominates the puck again here (which I think they will), then they are likely to be victorious.

It’s impressive enough that the Golden Knights are 4-1 off a loss since the restart. But three of those four wins have been shutouts! I’ve previously discussed how Dallas has predictably seen its offensive numbers start to dwindle. The lowest scoring team of the eight conference semifinalists came into this series having scored 42 goals in its L10 games. But they’ve been held to just three in regulation in the three games vs. Vegas thus far. The Stars have not only been outshot this postseason, they’ve actually been outscored! The fact they’ve been an underdog in 10 straight games while Vegas has yet to be a dog in the playoffs already made this a strange Conference Final. The fact Dallas is winning is even stranger. Vegas all the way, here. 10* Vegas

10* Under Nelson/Quarantillo (8:00 ET): Both fighters are high on confidence in this one and that’s what we’re looking for as we predict a finish (either way) in the Billy Quarantillo-Kyle Nelson fight, scheduled for three rounds at featherweight (145 lbs). Nelson, who is the big favorite, has gone so far as to predict a first round knockout. Quarantillo is known as a finisher and has gone on the record as being “100% confident” he will finish Nelson. Either way, I’d be happy as I’m taking the Under at 2.5 rounds. 

This will be Quarantillo’s first time entering the Octagon since a COVID-19 diagnosis in June. That diagnosis actually resulted in the cancellation of another fight (Frank Camacho-Matt Frevola) as Quarantillo was set to corner Frevola. The last time Quarantillo stepped into the Octagon proper was May when he outlasted Spike Carlyle in a decision victory. Now 14-2 in his career, Quarantillo is on a 7-fight win streak. Before the decision win in May, the previous five had all come via submission or TKO. This is an exciting fighter, but a lack of defense is a concern, especially against an opponent the caliber of Nelson. 

Nelson had his own set of issues getting back into the Octagon. A bout scheduled for 6.27 against Sean Woodson had to be nixed over a visa problem. So Nelson has not fought in nearly a year since KO’ing Marco Polo Reyes last September. Before that, he’d lost two in a row and was stopped each time. Nelson also has issues defensively and with just one of his previous nine fights making it to the scorecards, to me this fight is an easy call to end early. 10* Under Nelson/Quarantillo

10* Western Kentucky (8:00 ET): HC Scott Satterfield sort of walked into a great situation LY at Louisville. The Cardinals had won just 2 games the year prior, so the bar was low and it wouldn’t take much to improve. That said, Satterfield did a marvelous job as L’ville improved its win total by more than any other P5 team in the country (+6) and capped things off with a 38-28 win over Miss State in the Music City Bowl. But now come the weight of expectations and the Cardinals are opening the season as a DD favorite. 

The Cards were DD favorites just one time vs a FBS foe last season and it happened to be against the team they’ll face here, Western Kentucky. Despite losing that game 38-21, the Hilltoppers saw their own 6-game improvement in 2019, going from 3-9 SU to 9-4. They enter this season as one of the favorites to win C-USA’s East Division. I don’t see them getting much respect for this game though and think that’s a mistake. The Hilltoppers were a perfect 4-0 ATS as road dogs last season. 

There is a lot of fanfare over L’ville QB Micale Cunningham, who is a dual threat that should put up big numbers this season. But don’t look past this WKU offense. They return a veteran O-line and a stud RB in Gaej Walker. Plus, they are adding a grad transfer from Maryland, QB Tyrrell Pigrome, who is a dual threat himself. Look for Pigrome to become a better passer in this offense. His first game being against a defense that gave up 33 PPG and was 112th in YPP a year ago should help. Pigrome was Maryland’s QB in a 51-41 season opening upset of Texas a few years back. 10* Western Kentucky

10* Over Rockets/Lakers (8:05 ET): After their superb shooting in both Games 2 and 3, the Lakers weren’t nearly as hot from the field in Game 4. But ironically, they were probably more dominant. They built a 23-point in the 4Q and while the Rockets were able to get within 5 late, it was still a wire to wire win where the 110-110 final doesn’t tell the full story. The Lakers shot 56.6% and 55.1% in Games 2 & 3, yet only won those games by 8 and 10 respectively. They shot 48.9% in Gm 4 (still a good number) and won by a similar margin. 

The Lakers’ three-point shooting wasn’t very good Thursday (9 of 30) nor did they get to the FT line many times (16 attempts). So they are definitely capable of scoring more than they did in Game 4. What’s scary for Houston is that the Lakers may not even need improved three-point shooting to close out this series tonight. LA crushed Houston down low in the last game, outscoring them 62-24 in the paint, including 17-3 on second-chance points. They also enjoyed a 19-2 edge on fast break points. 

I also expect the Rockets’ shooting will improve in this must-win scenario. The only real positive from Game 4 is that Russell Westbrook scored 25 points after some dreadful shooting earlier in the series. Sadly though, it was James Harden’s “turn” to have an “off-night” as he went 2 for 11 from the floor and was 1 for 6 from three-point range. (By the way, LeBron James missed all 5 of his three-point attempts, so he’s also going to improve here). We only need the slightest amount of improvement in scoring from both sides to send this Over. The O/U line is at a series low-point. 10* Over Rockets/Lakers

8* Wake Forest (7:30 ET): Under Dabo Swinney, Clemson has become NCAAF “royalty,” winning two National Championships and 69 games in the L5 seasons. They’d won 29 straight before losing in LY’s National Title Game to LSU. The Tigers are again absolutely loaded entering 2020 as they have QB Trevor Lawrence back and figure to be DD favorites in every game with the exception of a trip to Notre Dame. But while they had no problem covering DD spreads last year (11-3 ATS in that role), I think this year could be a bit different. 

Wake Forest always seems to overachieve for HC Dave Clawson and last season was no different as the Demon Deacons won eight games on their way to the Pinstripe Bowl. They’ve now had a winning record each of the last four seasons. However, like most of the ACC, they’ve struggled against Clemson. The last two years have seen WF lose to the Tigers by a combined score of 115-6. It was 52-3 LY in Death Valley. Overall, it’s an 11-game losing streak to the Tigers. 

There will be no fans present Saturday night in Winston-Salem, but I still feel the number is too high for a season opener, even if it is Clemson with this much returning firepower. Wake Forest has a lot to replace on offense, but their defense is expected to be good with eight starters and the kicking game is sound as well. Wake Forest has virtually no shot at winning this game, but I like them getting the boatload of points in this most unusual of season openers. 8* Wake Forest

10* UTSA (3:30 ET): Texas State already has a game under its belt and while it was a loss, things really went better than anticipated against heavily favored SMU. The Bobcats “only” lost 31-24, easily covering as 24.5-point home dogs. The game also stayed well Under the 71.5-point total, which I enjoyed as I had the Under. Despite the Under, Texas State still put up over 400 yds of total offense and averaged over 5.0 YPC on the ground. QB Brady McBride completed 21 of 39 pass attempts for 229 yards and 2 TDs. It was a really competitive game against a much better team. 

UTSA is dealing with some attrition entering the season opener. Eight players are going to miss this game due to COVID-19, which makes things tough for a new coach staff. But I still expect Jeff Traylor’s offense to move the ball in this one. Texas State gave up 544 yards last week to SMU and the Roadrunners have a RB in Sincere McCormick, who sent numerous school records as a freshman last season, including an 189-yd effort vs. UTEP. Traylor’s offenses always seem to feature a productive RB, so expect a big sophomore season from McCormick. Last year, the UTSA defense led C-USA in tackles for loss.

In its last 26 games, Texas State has beaten just ONE FBS opponent by more than a touchdown. So while UTSA is dealing with the COVID issue, I believe they’ll at least hang tough. In fact, before factoring in homefield advantage, I’ve got the Roadrunners higher in my power ratings than Texas State. So being able to grab this many points seems like a luxury. Texas State is just 3-8 ATS its last 11 home games and was favored by a TD or more just once in that span. It was LY vs. South Alabama and they only 30-28. Take the points. 10* UTSA

8* NY Yankees (1:05 ET): The Yankees swept a doubleheader against the Orioles yesterday, winning by a combined 16-1 margin (10-1 and 6-0). That really solidifies the Pinstripes as a likely playoff participant (which we all figured they’d be anyway). NY now has a 3.5 game edge over the ninth place team in the AL (Baltimore) and could move up into second place in the AL East with a win today (and Toronto loss). Considering how the Yanks have dominated the O’s through the years, I think they’ll win again today. 

New York is 34-12 vs. Baltimore the L3 seasons, including 22-5 the L27 meetings. I don’t think anybody expected the Orioles to be playoff contenders this season, so this series feels like it will be a “perfect storm” where the Yankees not only solidify their status, but also put the O’s “to bed.” Baltimore had just six hits in the two games Friday. The Yankees hit five home runs. 

Jordan Montgomery hasn’t exactly been Cy Young for the Yankees this year. He’s made it through six innings just once in seven tries. But with the Yankees averaging 5.8 runs per game at home and Baltimore struggling at the plate, I don’t think we need to ask too much out of Montgomery here. Dean Kramer starts for the Orioles today. His only prior start this year was against the YAnkees and he won, allowing just one hit in six innings. But the second time around, the Bronx Bombers will be ready for him. 8* NY Yankees

8* Kansas State (12:00 ET): So Arkansas State already has a game under its belt and it was a 37-24 loss at Memphis. Though the Red Wolves left with the cash (as 18.5-point dogs), they were probably left kicking themselves for not playing a tighter game. Three turnovers were the undoing, although the defense giving up 500+ total yards was going to make it hard to pull the outright upset. Kansas State might not be Memphis, but they are a P5 team that’s had extra time to prepare and offer a widely different look than Memphis. 

Kansas State was a solid team for Chris Klieman last season. Klieman was in a tough spot replacing a legend in Bill Snyder, but his first season in Manhattan produced eight wins including an upset of Oklahoma. While the Wildcats must replace four O-lineman in 2020, the defense and special teams are solid and QB Skylar Thompson is back for his senior season. Thompson accounted for 23 TDs last season, 11 of which came on the ground. This game should allow for him to “pad” his passing numbers as last week, Memphis’ QB Brady White completed 72% of his passes. 

This is a tough spot for ASU, who is going on the road for a second week in a row to face a marquee opponent. Their QB situation is not yet settled (played 2 last week) and Kansas State has a much better defense than Memphis. While it may look like a lot of points, Arkansas State is just 3-8 ATS L11 as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points. Time of possession will be key here as LY saw K-State rank ninth in that department while ASU was 113th. Even before factoring in a minimal homefield advantage (there will be fans), I thought this number was simply too low. Lay the points. 8* Kansas State

10* Over Celtics/Raptors (9:05 ET): All things considered, the Raptors should feel pretty fortunate to be in a Game 7 with the Celtics. Their three wins in the series have been by a total of 11 points, one of them coming on a buzzer-beater (Game 3) and another (Game 6) coming in double overtime. Boston’s three wins in the series have been by a total of 43 points with two of them (Gms 1 & 5) being complete blowouts. Also, don’t forget Boston beat Toronto by 22 in a seeding game back on August 7th. Boston is the ONLY team to have beaten Toronto in the bubble and three of the wins have been by 16 points or more!

But as Game 6 showed, it would be a mistake to count the reigning NBA champs out. While they’ve struggled offensively all series, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the Raptors “save their best for last” here. Game 3 is the only time in the seven games vs. Boston in the bubble that they’ve been able to shoot better than 44%. This is a team that averages 112.6 PPG for the season. You have to think they’ve got one good offensive game in them.

After six straight unders (including seeding game), these teams finally went Over in Game 6, though it took overtime to do so (game was tied 98-98 at the end of regulation). Both teams shot miserably on 2-pt attempts, going an identical 25 of 54. I expect that to improve on both sides here in Game 7. The Celtics are 12-5 Over off a SU loss. The O/U line for this game is currently 14 points lower than where it was for Game 1, which is an incredible shift during the course of a series. Two of the first five games would have gone Over this number. 10* Over Celtics/Raptors

10* Over Cubs/Brewers (8:10 ET): The Cubs may lead the division, but they’re curiously big underdogs here to the Brewers. That’s likely due to the pitching matchup that’s on tap as Jon Lester has really struggled of late for Chicago. He has a 7.25 ERA and 2.50 WHIP his L3 starts and has given up five or more runs in four of his last five outings. But Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff hasn’t exactly been “lights out” either as he’s lasted six innings just once in his last six tries. I’m on the Over here as a big play. 

Eight of Woodruff’s nine starts this year have stayed Under the total. That seems weird considering, again, he hasn’t been all that dominant. It’s a 5.28 ERA his L3 starts and he’s allowed a total of 7 runs in his last 9 ⅓ IP. He also has six walks during that time. The Cubs scored eight times in yday’s win over the Reds, snapping an 8-game stretch where the Under had been 7-0-1. I expect the Cubs to find success against Woodruff. After all, they do average 5.6 runs per game on the road. They scored three times in 4 ⅓ innings when they faced Woodruff last week. Woodruff now has a 6.00 ERA in seven lifetime appearances vs. the Cubs. 

The biggest reason why the Under is 8-1 in Woodruff starts is Milwaukee simply hasn’t done much scoring of its own. In the eight games that went Under, they’ve scored four or fewer runs. This is a lineup that just put 19 runs on the board Wednesday (I had ‘em) against Detroit with 13 extra base hits. Given Lester’s recent struggles, the Brew Crew should also have a nice night at the plate. 10* Over Cubs/Brewers

6* NY Mets (6:35 ET): When looking at these two teams, it is worth noting that the Mets are having a less successful season despite playing in the weaker National League. However, what the Mets do have is Jacob deGrom and that should be the difference in this one as they head to Buffalo to face the Blue Jays. The Mets are currently three games back of the final playoff spot in the NL and can’t afford to lose w/ their ace on the hill. Fortunately for them, they are already 6-2 in deGrom starts this year and should come through again tonight. 

Because of COVID-19, the Blue Jays were “displaced” for the 2020 season and play their home games at the stadium of their Triple-A affiliate in Buffalo. Tip your cap to the fact they seem playoff bound, although it should be pointed out there’s a huge gap between the top eight and bottom seven in the American League. Really, there was just room for one also-ran to step up this year and that’s been the Jays. 

Toronto lost on Wednesday (7-2 to the Yankees) and has also lost the last three times tonight’s starter Chase Anderson has been on the bump. Last time out, Anderson surrendered six runs and that was to last place Boston. deGrom has surrendered just 9 ER ALL SEASON and is coming off another strong effort in which he struck out 12 in a 14-1 win over the Phillies. deGrom has yet to allow more than 2 ER in any start this year. The Mets badly need this game and fortunately (for them) have the right guy on the mound to get the job done. 6* NY Mets

10* Under Texans/Chiefs (8:25 ET): Kansas City is off a Super Bowl winning season in which it covered its final eight games. This despite trailing by double digits in three of the four playoff games, one of which being the Super Bowl and there were less than nine minutes remaining. Perhaps the most infamous of the three playoff comebacks came in the Divisional Round against the very same Texans that the Chiefs will open the 2020 season against. In that game, KC trailed 24-0 only to score 51 of the game’s final 58 points.

Though Houston obviously did not win the Super Bowl and blew a game in which it led 24-0, they did have a large amount of good fortune go their way in 2019. They were 8-3 SU in one-score games, including 5-1 in those decided by three points or less. That’s how you go 10-6 SU despite a point differential of -7 on the year. I had this team as a lock to regress even before an offseason filled with highly questionable personnel moves by HC/GM Bill O’Brien, the most notable seeing him trade away WR DeAndre Hopkins for “peanuts on the dollar.”

You see DeShaun Watson vs. Patrick Mahomes and the automatic inclination is to expect plenty of fireworks (see last January). But this is the 1st game of the year, after a condensed and unusual training camp, and a very high total for Week 1. Houston’s offense won’t be close to as good as it was last year as they lost over 45% of their offensive touches. KC won’t be going on the same kind of ridiculous scoring stretch it did in LY’s Divisional Playoff Game. The Under is 11-4-1 the Texans’ L16 September games. 10* Under Texans/Chiefs

8* Vegas (8:05 ET): Both the Golden Knights and Stars are just 2-3 SU their L5 games as each “blew” a 3-1 series lead in the last round (both won Game 7’s obviously) and have then split the first two games here, each winning via shutout. As I’d been projecting for a while now, the Stars’ offense has begun to regress. Coming into Western Conference Finals, they’d scored 42 goals in the L10 games. They’ve been held to just 1 goal in two games by a Vegas side that now has posted FOUR shutouts in its L9 games.

Part of the reason I was so adamant that the Stars’ goal-scoring was about to go down was that they were the lowest-scoring team (in the regular season) among the eight conference semifinalists. They were actually among the lowest scoring teams invited to the bubble. Consider that they have more 5+ goal games here in Edmonton than they did the entire regular season. The team’s shooting percentage had also been unusually high coming into this series and was due to regress. 

What is clear is that Vegas has a much better goaltending situation than Colorado, Dallas’ opponent in the previous round. While the Golden Knights have had their own issues scoring in this series, they shouldn’t need many to prevail again here in this critical Game 3. They have done a great job outshooting their opponents this postseason. I should also point out that tonight marks the 10th consecutive game that Dallas has been an underdog on the money line. It’s a bit shocking they’ve even made it thus far. Meanwhile, Vegas has been favored in every game since the actual playoffs began, typically in this price range or even higher. 8* Vegas

8* UAB (8:00 ET): I think we all need to take a moment and appreciate the job HC Bill Clark has done with UAB football. This program actually ceased to exist for two seasons (2015-16) due to the university’s financial situation. But in the three years since its return, the Blazers have won 27 games and appeared in the last two C-USA Title Games, even winning the 2018 version. They were one of the most inexperienced teams in the entire country LY, but are now one of the MOST experienced in 2020 w/ 18 starters back.

Miami is in many ways the opposite of UAB. They are considered a College Football “institution.” Yet the Hurricanes have just ONE bowl win since 2006 and posted a losing record last season at 6-7 SU. Yet the ‘Canes got the coveted “Most Improved Team in the Country” moniker from Phil Steele in his publication, largely due to QB D’Eriq King transferring in from Houston. That kind of attention often leads to a team being overvalued early on in the season and that’s precisely the case here for “The U” in Thursday’s opener.

For the record, I agree with Steele that Miami is going to be improved this year. But they had just TWO double digit victories last season, both over non-bowl teams, so I find it hard to believe they’re going to be able to come out and dominate a team like UAB that has experience and won 9 games a year ago. This has been a weird offseason to say the least and Miami could have some growing pains integrating its key transfers. Not only is UAB experienced, they did get six spring practices in and have a game already under their belt. Last week’s 45-35 win over Central Arkansas was not as close as the final score indicates as the Blazers turned it over three times, but still had a 459-238 total yardage advantage. Two Central Arkansas’ TD drives were 15 yards or less and they had a defensive score as well. Miami is just 7-15 ATS as a favorite the L3 seasons w/ 12 outright losses! 8* UAB

10* Houston (7:05 ET): Despite being up 2-1 in this series, apparently not all is well in “Laker-land.” The team is reportedly griping over the fact its last eight games have all started at 8:30 ET or later. This lessens the advantage of no travel they say. Regardless, what they need to be more concerned about is the fact they have shot lights out each of the L2 games and still barely beaten the Rockets both times. I don’t think that LA is going to be able to shoot 55%+ from the field again and the fact their two wins (when doing so) have both been by 10 pts or less, that has me taking the points in Game 4.

Game 1 was an easy Houston win, 112-97, as they held the Lakers to 42.2% overall shooting and 11 of 38 from three-point range. Coming off a second straight Game 1 loss (also lost Gm1 to Portland last round), the Lakers predictably stormed back with a fast start to Game 2, jumping out to a 36-20 lead after the 1Q. But by the end of the 3rd, that lead was entirely gone. Ultimately, the Lakers won 117-109, but they needed to shoot 56.6% overall to do so. Game 3 saw Houston lead most of the first half, but again the Lakers’ hot shooting was too much as they finished 55.1% for the game and won 112-102.

To put it in “plain English,” I just don’t see the Lakers shooting that well again. Normally, when a team shoots that well, they win in blowout fashion. The fact LA didn’t do that in either Games 2 and 3 should be a concern. Tonight, I think it’s Houston that will rediscover its shooting touch in a game they need to have, so they’re not facing a 3-1 series deficit. In the L6 meetings, both teams are 3-3 straight up. 10* Houston

7* LA Angels (4:05 ET): Oops. We’ve been on the Angels each of the L2 days, thinking it was “their time” to gain a measure of revenge for a prior sweep that occurred here in Arlington last month. Alas, the Halos have lost the first two games of the series, 7-1 and 7-3. Not even an early 2-0 lead mattered last night as the Rangers stormed back w/ one big inning (5-run fifth). But, finally, “today should be the day” as the Angels finally have the pitching mismatch they need to get the job done. As a reminder, Los Angeles came into the series on a five-game win streak. Texas had lost six in a row.

Today’s pitching matchup has Dylan Bundy starting for the Angels. He’s posted a 2.49 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in eight starts. He opened the season with four consecutive quality starts, including a CG at Seattle. After B2B “rough” outings vs. San Francisco and Oakland, Bundy has since bounced back by allowing just three total runs in wins over Seattle (16-3) and Houston (6-5).

Texas still has the 2nd worst run differential in all of baseball (-62) and is just 10-27 this season against every team NOT named the Angels. A lack of depth in the starting rotation has been a BIG problem and today it will be Kyle Gibson on the mound. Not only does Gibson have a 6.97 ERA and 1.694 WHIP at home, his overall team start record is 1-7 (0-4 at home). While the Angels have been big “money-burners” this season, they are still 27-10 L37 as road favorites of -125 to -175. 7* LA Angels

10* LA Angels (8:05 ET): The Angels let us down last night, plain and simple. They lost 7-1 and are now 0-4 vs. Texas this season. No team should be 0-4 against the Rangers, who are 14-27 on the year with a -66 run differential. Making last night’s result all the more frustrating is the respective form the teams had flashed coming into this series. The Angels had won five straight while the Rangers had lost six straight. Time to try again as tonight I look for the Halos to gain their revenge. 

Perhaps I underestimated the importance of Lance Lynn starting last night’s game for the Rangers. In his MLB-leading 10th start of the year, Lynn went seven innings and allowed just one run on four hits. But as alluded to in yday’s analysis, Lynn is the only Rangers’ starter having any success this season. The rest of the rotation is a combined 2-14 in 24 starts with the team going only 6-18 in those games. Kyle Cody will be making just his 2nd start here after lasting only three innings his first time out. Texas lost that game, 6-3 to Seattle, last Friday. 

Julio Teheran hasn’t exactly had a stellar season for the Angels, but Wednesday’s starter did have his best outing to date his last time out and it happened to be against the highest-scoring team in all of MLB (Padres). The Angels still lost mind you, 11-4, but Teheran allowed just two runs on three hits. He has a 2.08 ERA in two previous starts vs. Texas. The Rangers’ offense came into the series as the LOWEST scoring in all of baseball and is hitting a collective .215 in their new home park. 10* LA Angels

8* NY Yankees (6:35 ET): The Yankees are in a bit of a free fall. Over the last 20 games, they’ve won just five times. They’ve lost five in a row. This latest losing streak, which includes two straight to Toronto, not only has them now behind the Blue Jays in the AL East but only two up in the win column over Detroit. That last tidbit is important because if Detroit somehow passed them, they’d be out of the top eight in the American League. Nevertheless, the Yankees still have an 83.1% chance of making the postseason and I think it would be wrong to start pushing the proverbial “panic button.”

Injuries and a lack of clutch hitting have been the primary culprits during this Yankees slide. Not having the likes of Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup definitely hurt in yesterday’s 2-1 loss. But it’s a game they still should have won and probably would have if not for stranding 10 baserunners and going 0 for 7 w/ RISP. Toronto’s lineup managed only four hits the entire game and struck out 13 times. 

 Tanner Roark has seen the Blue Jays prevail in each of his L5 starts, but it’s tough to have much faith in a starter w/ a 1.787 WHIP on the year. Furthermore, Roark has a 6.91 ERA and 1.884 WHIP his L3 starts. The Yankees counter with Deivi Garcia, who’ll be making only his third career big league start. His debut was great as he allowed just one unearned run in six innings vs. the Mets. Last time out wasn’t as good as he gave up four runs in a loss to Baltimore. But with Roark’s luck due to turn, this should be Garcia’s 1st career win. 8* NY Yankees

10* Over Raptors/Celtics (6:40 ET): After five straight Overs to open this series (and seven straight Overs overall for Boston), it’s time for the Over to hit. Over the course of the series, we’ve seen the O/U line drop a total of eight points. That’s a fairly significant number, even though there has yet to be a game with more than 207 total points scored. Toronto shot horribly in Game 5 (2 for 15 to open the game) en route to being blown out. That won’t happen again though as the defending NBA Champs should rediscover the offense as they hope to stay alive.

The numbers were UGLY for the Raptors Monday night. They scored just 37 points in the first half, including an 11-point 1st quarter. Starters were outscored 94-45 for the game as the team shot only 38.8% from the field. It was the third time in the series being held below a 40.0 FG%. They are averaging only 97.2 PPG against Boston. Again though, this is a team that scored 150 in its close out game vs. Brooklyn in Rd 1. Boston isn’t Brooklyn, but the Raptors shooting will definitely improve in Game 6. 

Boston didn’t even shoot the ball that great in Game 5. Sure, they finished with an overall FG% of 49.4, but from three-point range they went just 11 of 34. Behind the arc is what has largely “made or broke” the Celtics in the series. In the two prior wins, they shot 41.5%. In the two losses, they were down closer to 25%.  You have to think we’re in line to get a game where both sides shoot the ball relatively well, especially from three. Toronto averages 112.5 PPG for the year while Boston is at 113.0. 10* Over Raptors/Celtics

8* Milwaukee (1:10 ET): The Brewers were somewhat embarrassed last night as they didn’t score until the 9th inning of what ended up being an 8-3 loss. But when you dig beneath the surface, things weren’t quite as lopsided as you might think. The Brew Crew outhit Detroit, who got most of its runs in one inning. There were three consecutive innings where Milwaukee hit into a double play, preventing them keeping pace with the Tigers’ scoring. All signs point to a bounce back Wednesday afternoon.

With the win last night, the Tigers are now just one game back of the Yankees for the 8th and final playoff spot in the American League. That seems inconceivable given how much losing the Tigers have done the L2 seasons (111-212 record). I remain very skeptical. It’s not like I’m a huge fan of the Brewers’ postseason chances either (as they have a -39 run differential). But they did bounce back in a similar spot vs. the Tigers exactly one week ago. After losing the first game of that series 12-1, they came back and won the next day 8-5. 

Today’s pitching matchup also seems to lean heavily in the favor of Milwaukee. They send out Corbin Burnes, who has gone 2-0 in his five starts with a 1.75 ERA and 1.013 WHIP. Burnes is coming off B2B outstanding performances where he’s allowed no runs in 12 IP w/ 17 strikeouts. The team won both times (in lopsided fashion). Matthew Boyd gets the baseball here for the Tigers and while he’s also off a pair of quality outings (both vs. Minnesota), he still has a 6.64 ERA and 1.426 WHIP on the season. 8* Milwaukee

10* Houston (9:05 ET): Despite falling way behind early (trailed by as many as 21 in the 2nd quarter), the Rockets erased that entire deficit in Game 1 and actually led going into the final quarter. But their usually efficient offense betrayed them over those last 12 minutes as they were held to just 17 points. I still cashed an Over bet as the Lakers finished the game at 56.6% from the field and won 117-109. But they won’t shoot that well again tonight and I’m taking the undervalued Rockets plus the points in Game 3.

Houston needs more from Russell Westbrook if they are to win this series. The All-Star was pretty bad in Game 2 as he was just 4 of 15 shooting, including 1 of 7 from behind the arc. Yet still, the Rockets led going into the 4th quarter and that’s with the Lakers shooting a ridiculous percentage for the game! It was actually tied for the most points allowed by the Rockets in regulation since the playoffs began. They’ve been a lot better defensively than we’re accustomed to seeing. 

One thing that’s evident when watching the Lakers is that beyond LeBron James and Anthony Davis, this roster is very unimpressive. That All-Star duo accounted for 62 of the team’s 117 pts in Game 2 and did so on an uber-efficient 25 of 41 shooting. But that can’t happen every game. The Lakers are just 4-10 ATS in the bubble, evidence that they’ve been overvalued and sure enough my own power rankings indicate that this line should be shorter. 10* Houston

10* Vegas (8:05 ET): I had the Under in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals (which was an easy winner), but still I was surprised to see the favored Golden Knights get shut out. Still, they did the job defensively (which I had expected), holding the Stars to only 1 goal. That’s no small feat considering how much scoring we’ve seen from Dallas in the playoffs. But it’s a scoring explosion I fully expect will subside in this series considering they have more 5+ goal games in the postseason than they did the entire regular season!

Vegas should bounce back offensively in this one. They get Ryan Reaves back from a Game 1 suspension. They are also 9-4 SU this season after scoring 1 goal or less in the previous game. For the most part, the Golden Knights have been outstanding at puck possession in the postseason, outshooting the opposition by a 36.4 to 24.7 per game average. Dallas is allowing 3.3 goals per game since the restart, which is actually more than they have scored themselves. They’ve also been outshot. 

 The Stars were the lowest scoring team in the regular season among the eight conference semifinalists, but shockingly scored 42 goals in the 10 games prior to this series getting underway. But now they are facing a team that posted THREE shutouts in its last series and is obviously MUCH better between the pipes then Colorado was. Dallas is now an underdog for the NINTH consecutive game while Vegas has been -150 or higher for every game since the 1st round began. The Golden Knights bounce back here. 10* Vegas

10* LA Angels (8:05 ET): Things set up nicely here for the Halos to gain a measure of revenge for a sweep they suffered in this very ballpark last month. Since then, the bottom has really dropped out on the Rangers season. Since starting the year 10-9, Texas has dropped 18 of its last 21 ballgames including each of the last six. They have baseball’s worst run differential (-72) and have next to no chance of making the postseason. Meanwhile, the Angels come in with some “momentum” as they are on a 5-game win streak. 

Lance Lynn gets the baseball Tuesday for the Rangers. While he’s been the team’s best starter in 2020, he alone is not enough to turn the tide. Plus, Lynn has struggled of late, including a rough outing his last time out where he allowed six runs. He did beat the Angels back on August 9th, 7-3, but shouldn’t expect that kind of run support again as the Rangers are hitting just .211 at home this year and have scored the fewest number of runs in either league.

Andrew Heaney came out on the losing end of that August 9th game vs. Lynn and the Rangers, which was part of a rough stretch for the left-handed. But he’s since settled down w/ B2B quality outings that have seen him allow only 1 run in 14 ⅔ IP w/ 16 strikeouts. In half of his starts this season, Heaney has given up 1 ER or less. The Angels have scored 34 runs during their 5-game win streak, so unlike Lynn, Heaney can expect some run support tonight. 10* LA Angels