8* Toronto (10:10 ET): Last night was so typical of how the Mariners have been able to succeed this year in spite of a -48 run differential. They were outhit, but won on a bases loaded walk in the bottom of the ninth. That came on the heels of a play at the plate in top of the ninth where Toronto runner Breyvic Valera appeared safe, but was called out after replay. Seattle is now 25-14 in one-run games, an incredibly fortuitous record. No team in all of baseball has overachieved more, in terms of wins & losses. Based on their aforementioned run differential, they have a win expectancy of 53-64. Their actual record is 62-55, a nine-game difference from where they “should” be. 

Toronto is quite the opposite of Seattle. They have a run differential of +128, which is fifth best in all of baseball. Based on that run differential, they have a win expectancy of 71-44. But here they are at 62-53, just two ahead of the Mariners in the loss column despite the vastly superior run differential. The Blue Jays are just 8-14 in one run games. They should be much higher in the standings and it would be a crime if they failed to grab one of the two Wild Card spots in the American League. They are certainly WAY better than Seattle. 

Both teams have been getting outstanding starting pitching of late and we’ve got a strong matchup tonight of Hyun-Jin Ryu vs. Yusei Kikuchi. Ryu is off a rough start vs. Boston where he allowed seven runs, but the Blue Jays still won the game and are 6-0 in his L6 starts. Remember what I said yesterday about the Mariners offense. It ranks near the bottom of the league in all key categories. They are hitting just .208 at home! Kikuchi has actually pitched WORSE at home compared to the road. He is 2-4 in nine starts here with a 4.53 ERA. I’m “doubling down” on the Jays tonight. 8* Toronto 

10* Houston (9:07 ET): The Astros are the #1 team in my personal power ratings and I’ve been adamant all season long that they will win the AL West. With a 4-1 win over the Angels last night, they were able to increase their division lead to 2.5 games over the A’s (who lost Friday). That’s obviously not a very large lead though, so the ‘Stros can’t afford to let up now. Fortunately, a +161 YTD run differential thanks to MLB’s highest scoring offense tells me they won’t. On the road this year, Houston is winning by an average margin of 1.6 runs per game. Look for them to beat the Angels again tonight.

The Angels, who have dropped five of seven, are a game below .500 and pretty much out of the playoff race. They are 3-7 vs. Houston this year. Last night was the first time they’d faced them since May. So tonight’s starter Jaime Barria is not someone the Astros have seen this season. But they have faced him several times prior to 2021, including a game last September where they scored six times off him in 2 ⅔ IP. Barria, who has spent a good deal of time down in Triple-A this season, has looked good in three starts since being placed in the rotation. But here he’s facing a team that puts up 5.7 rpg on the road. 

Luis Garcia looked good for Houston last Saturday, pitching six shutout innings of two hit ball. It was the second straight home start where Garcia did not allow a run while going six innings. Now the road has been a bit of an adventure, but I trust him to get the job done tonight. The Angels have been held to three runs or less in five of the last seven games while batting a collective .222 during that stretch. Garcia allowed just three runs on five hits when he faced them earlier this season. 10* Houston

10* Jacksonville (7:00 ET): This Week 1 preseason matchup attracted plenty of early “action” on the Jaguars once the Browns announced that the majority of their starters won’t even bother to suit up. Coach Kevin Stefanski has made it clear that Baker Mayfield is out for Saturday. That would normally make veteran Case Keenum in line to be the starter, but according to Browns’ beat reporters, Keenum may not see a ton of action either. So that means the Browns would be down to Kyle Lauletta, a former fourth round pick of the Giants, to take most of the reps at QB. Yeah, no thanks. Lay the points here.

The Jaguars’ QB situation is obviously more interesting as they took Trevor Lawrence with the first overall draft choice. Shockingly, new HC Urban Meyer has declared it to be an “open” QB competition between Lawrence and incumbent Gardner Minshew. Both are going to see playing time here, which is a good reason to be on the Jags. Either is a better option than whomever is taking snaps for Cleveland under center. 

Throw in the fact that this will be Meyer’s first home game as Jacksonville head coach and you’ve got to believe the Jags will be the more motivated team come Saturday. They are off a dreadful 1-15 SU season that ended with 15 consecutive losses. Winning this game is far more important to them than to a Browns team that went 11-5 SU LY and made the playoffs. Expectations are the highest they’ve been for the Browns in some time heading into 2021. But like most playoff teams from the previous year, the preseason doesn’t matter much. Jaguars players will be looking to make an impression on the new coaching staff. Stefanski already knows what he has and is sitting basically everyone. 10* Jacksonville 

8* Over Dolphins/Bears (1:00 ET): The big story in this one is that Bears rookie QB Justin Fields is expected to play longer than usual. "For Justin, for sure [he'll play] past the halftime," Bears HC Matt Nagy said before the Bears and Dolphins held a joint practice. "The mindset going into this is that he's going to get a lot of reps. Does that take him into the fourth quarter? Maybe. ... The more reps we can get him right now, the better. It's only going to help him." From all accounts, Fields has looked better than Andy Dalton in camp. It remains to be seen if he will be the starter for Week 1 of the regular season.

Miami is coming off a much better than anticipated season. They went 10-6 SU, but did NOT make the playoffs. Expectations for this season is that they WILL make the playoffs. I’m not so sure. The defense forced the most turnovers in the league last year, a feat that almost certainly will not be replicated in 2021. All those turnovers the Dolphins forced somewhat masked the fact the defense was 24th in yards allowed. Facing a highly motivated Fields, I expect Miami to give up plenty of yards .. and points in this one.

Fields playing into the second half is a big deal. After him, Dalton isn’t just going to roll over. So, there’s a chance that for this entire first preseason game, the Bears will have competent QB play. For Miami, Tua Tagovailoa has reportedly looked GREAT in camp. The talk is that he’s mastered the playbook and is ready to take the proverbial second year leap. Tua is expected to play Saturday afternoon. How long is anyone’s guess. But I think Miami will put some points on the board as well. 8* Over Dolphins/Bears

7* Manchester United (7:30 AM ET): Manchester United finished second in the Premier League table last season. With 74 points, it was a distant second to runaway winner Man City. In doing my prep work for the 2021/22 season, it sure seems as if the expectation is for the Red Devils to fall down a few spots. While it is true they had a fortuitous record in one-goal games (won 11 of 14) and won a league-leading 10 times when conceding first, I think they certainly still “bring enough to the table” to outlast Leeds United in the season opener Saturday morning. 

Now last season, Leeds was the rare instance of a newly promoted side expected to do well in its return to the English top flight. They had a solid accounting of themselves, finishing ninth in the table. They were only six points off the Europa League positions. So it was a successful first year back. But I still don’t see the Whites being that close to the top Premier League clubs. While they did play to a scoreless draw in one of two fixtures with ManU last season, they lost the other 6-2. 

The pre-season did not go all that well for Leeds United as they suffered three defeats in six matches. They only won once. Man United will have several absences for this first fixture, but they came away with a 4-0 win in a friendly against Everton in the final preseason tune-up. They believe they still have the goods to compete with Man City and I view them as a top four side in the EPL. Look for them to get the full three points in this one. 7* Manchester United

10* Toronto (10:10 ET): This is a matchup I am very much looking forward to. If you’ve been following my MLB picks for any length of time this season, then you already know why I am looking forward to it. Here we have two teams with perhaps the most misleading records in all of baseball. Toronto is far better than its 62-52 record. At least based on their +129 run differential, which is fifth best among all teams! Compare that to Seattle, who is also in the AL Wild Card race, but has a -49 YTD run differential. While these teams are separated by just two games in the standings, the gap in their win expectancy (based on run differential) is 20 games! So obviously I’m siding with the Blue Jays Friday night. 

The Jays split four games with the Angels to start the week. They didn’t have any answers for two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani yesterday. But while they are facing a pitcher (Chris Flexen) that is tied for the 2nd most wins in all of MLB (14), he is nowhere near as dominating as Ohtani. Flexen actually has a 6.89 ERA and 1.723 WHIP his L3 starts. He did not factor into the decision the only time he faced Toronto previous to this as he gave up three runs in five innings. The Mariners are just 1-3 in Flexen’s last four starts.

While Toronto did lose yesterday, they are still 12-4 in their L16 games. Their starting pitching has been outstanding during this stretch, posting a 9-1 record and 2.16 ERA. I expect a strong start here out of Robbie Ray, who faces a Seattle lineup that is near the bottom of the league in every key offensive category. At home, the Mariners are hitting just .209! They were lucky to get by the lousy Rangers each of the last two days, but had dropped five of six prior to that. Ray is coming off three straight quality starts and has a 2.90 ERA/1.074 WHIP this season. The Blue Jays are 8-3 as a road favorite of -125 to -175. 10* Toronto

8* Under Cubs/Marlins (7:35 ET): Needless to say, it doesn’t look like we’re going to have a repeat of 2003 when these two teams were involved in one of the most infamous NLCS of all-time. Both the Cubs and Marlins have been relegated to “playing out the string” at this point. The Cubs have lost eight in a row and gave up 27 runs in the two games, both of which were against NL Central-leading Milwaukee. So they’ll be happy to make the trip to Miami and play someone else. The Marlins were off yesterday after shutting out San Diego 7-0 on Wednesday. Despite what the recent trends say, I’m taking the Under in this series opener. 

Prior to the shutout win 48 hours ago, Miami had been on an 8-1 Over run. They’d been giving up their fair share of runs, but it’s important to note the majority of those games were on the road and three of them were at Coors Field. Now they return home. LoanDepot Park has quietly become a safe haven for Marlins’ pitchers as they are giving up just 3.5 runs per game and a .211 batting average here. Unfortunately, the offense doesn’t always do its job as the Marlins only average 3.9 rpg at home. The total average number of runs scored per game in this park this season is second lowest in MLB (Citi Field is #1). 

Cubs pitching gave up all those runs the L2 days, but you may not have noticed that yesterday was the most runs they scored in a game in quite some time. Unfortunately, that number was only four. On the road, the Cubs average just 3.7 rpg this season. Before yesterday, they’d scored just eight times in five games and were shutout twice. The two starters for tonight’s game - Adbert Alzolay for the Cubs and Jesus Luzardo for the Marlins - don’t have the best numbers. But the former has pitched better than his record and is off a quality start. The latter is backed by a strong bullpen. 8* Under Cubs/Marlins

8* Detroit (7:00 ET): This is a 1st year head coach (Dan Campbell) making his home debut. That’s a situation I typically bet on during the preseason and the Lions will be no exception here. Campbell takes over an outfit that was pretty bad in 2020. The Lions finished 5-11 and had the worst point differential in the NFC. The biggest offseason news (besides the hiring of Campbell) was the trade that sent Matthew Stafford to the Rams in exchange for Jared Goff. Goff will start this game and behind him there’s a battle for #2 on the QB depth chart between Tim Boyle and David Blough. 

Buffalo went 13-3 last season and made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game. They have a lot less question marks entering 2021 than do the Lions. Obviously, if this were a regular season contest, I’d handicap this matchup a lot differently. But with QB Josh Allen (just got a big new contract) and several other Bills’ offensive starters set to sit this one out, it’s a whole different ball game in the preseason. Mitchell Trubisky is likely who Buffalo will be counting on for most of the snaps, at least early on, and he’s not to be trusted.

Inheriting a shaky operation, Campbell will want to win this first game in front of fans. Buffalo should be accommodating. The regular season is the Bills’ focus right now while the Lions aren’t likely to win very many games when they start counting. So a win tonight would go a long way for their confidence early on. Goff should play about a quarter with the rest of the offensive starters, which is fine. Clearly, I think Campbell’s motivation to win here is the key factor. Go with the home team. 8* Detroit

10* Over Arsenal/Brentford (3:00 ET): Brentford becomes the 50th club to compete in the English Premier League, having earned a promotion by finishing third in the Championship last season and winning a playoff over Swansea. The Bees have been in the English top flight before, but that predated the formation of the EPL and was all the way back in 1947-48! So they’ll be happy to be here. The campaign begins against Arsenal, a side that won’t be playing European football this season - for the first time in a quarter century. 

The Gunners finished eighth in the table last season, which is pretty much where they deserved to finish. They did win their final five fixtures of last season, though that was not enough to overcome Tottenham Hotspur for Europa League qualifying.  Undoubtedly, the highlight so far under manager Mikel Arteta was winning the FA Cup. However, the pressure is on after a terrible preseason which saw the club lose to Tottenham, Chelsea and Hibernian. 

I think the interesting thing here is that Brentford was the highest scoring side in the Championship last year. They tallied 79 goals, which was well out in front of most of the second tier league. They are led by Ivan Toney, who scored 33 of those 79 goals a year ago. I absolutely anticipate the Bees breaking through with a goal or two in the first match of the season. Arsenal was not a terribly high-scoring club LY, but should be able to find the back of the net a couple times against the recently promoted side. 10* Over Arsenal/Brentford

10* Over Washington/New England (7:30 ET): The 2020 NFL season was like none other before it. There were obvious reasons why that was the case. One that did not make many headlines, but was truly unique, is the fact Washington made the playoffs and New England did not. The last time that happened was 1999. Bill Belichick was not yet the head coach of the Patriots at that time. He’d take over the following season and has since led the franchise to one of the most sustained runs of greatness in the history of sports. But last year marked the first time Tom Brady was not on Belichick’s roster. We all know how that went. 

While the Pats may have missed the playoffs for just the fourth time in 21 years, they actually finished with the same 7-9 regular season record as the Football Team. Washington was simply fortunate enough to play in the horrible NFC East. I expect regression from them in 2021 as there’s virtually no shot their defense can repeat last season’s effort. Conversely, New England will probably improve its record. But how much remains to be seen. 

New England’s improvement hinges on the QB position. They drafted Mac Jones (out of Alabama) in the first round of the Draft. They also still have Cam Newton. This will be one of the real QB battles to watch in the preseason as both look to be the Week 1 starter. Because both QBs are looking to impress, I expect the Patriots to put up a decent amount of points on Thursday. The same holds true for Washington, who has its own QB battle with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kyle Allen and Taylor Heinicke. Remember that Heinicke had a monster playoff game against Tampa Bay with 352 total yards of offense. Take the Over. 10* Over Washington/New England

10* Chi White Sox (7:05 ET): This game is taking place in Dyersville, Iowa at the “Field of Dreams” (as in the movie). It figures to be quite the spectacle on FOX tonight. I also believe that the White Sox are going to win big. Lance Lynn was slated to start for them yesterday, but got pushed back to tonight. Pitching was not the problem for the White Sox in yesterday’s 1-0 loss to the Twins, obviously. While it was disappointing to lose in that fashion Wednesday, the fact that they’ve got Lynn on the mound tonight makes the White Sox a much stronger play. 

The Yankees have surged in the second half, winning 12 of their last 16 to get into Wild Card contention. But they’ve been beating up on a lot of bad teams (Royals, Mariners, Orioles) lately and this will be a big step up in class. The White Sox are a top five team in all of MLB and have opened up the biggest division lead (10.5 games) in all of MLB. They also have revenge here for a three-game sweep they suffered at Yankees Stadium back in May. While some might be content to wait for this series to shift to Chicago, we can get a much better price on the “home team” here. I know the White Sox road record (29-28) isn’t all that great. But they’ve actually outscored their opponents by a full run per game away from home. 

 White Sox pitching has allowed three runs or less in 7 of the last 10 games. With Lynn on the bump tonight, they’ve got a great chance to extend that streak. Lynn is coming off an outstanding July where he went 3-0 and posted a 2.10 ERA in five starts. He’s gone six-plus innings while allowing exactly one run in five of his last six outings. The Yankees are not a high scoring ballclub. They only average 4.0 rpg on the road. Andrew Heaney, who has a 5.45 ERA, is not going to be able to outduel Lynn here. The White Sox are 37-14 L51 games vs. a LH starter. 10* Chi White Sox

8* Atlanta (5:10 ET): So my read on the Braves is seemingly correct. I took them on Tuesday and in that analysis I noted how they are the ONLY team in the NL East that has a positive YTD run differential. In fact, said run differential is significantly better than the four other teams in the division. I’m a big believer in scoring differential being a great predictor for future outcome (in any sport). It’s far more valuable to me than a team’s actual won-loss record. I only wished I had played the Braves yesterday as they beat the Reds again, this time 8-6 in 11 innings. But here’s another chance Thursday and I’ll call for the sweep.

You may recall I noted the situational edge that Atlanta had going into Tuesday’s opener as the Reds were playing in their third different city in as many days. They won that game in come from behind fashion, 3-2. They actually jumped out to a big lead last night as it was 5-0 after two innings. The Reds were able to tie the game up and send it to extras, but a three-run Ozzie Albies’ HR ended it in the 11th. Losing two in a row like that has to be demoralizing for Cincinnati, who have seen their Wild Card hopes take a hit. Like the Braves’ division rivals, the Reds have a negative YTD scoring differential. So I don’t like their future prospects anyway. 

With a win today, the Braves would be in first place by themselves for the first time this season. They will hand the baseball to Kyle Muller, who has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts to go along with a 2.45 ERA and 1.091 WHIP. I know that Vladimir Gutierrez has been equally as good for the Reds as of late. But the Braves have the edge in the bullpen. Also, with catcher Travis d’Arnaud back, the lineup is now deeper. This is a team that already averages 5.3 runs per game at home. 8* Atlanta

10* Over A’s/Indians (7:10 ET): The A’s are in the driver’s seat right now in the AL Wildcard race. They stayed hot by coming from behind to win here in Cleveland last night, 4-3 in 10 innings. It was their fifth straight win, which not only put them on top of the WC race but they are also just two games back of the Astros in the West! Meanwhile, Cleveland is fading fast. They’re now below .500 on the season and have a run differential that’s not indicative of a true contender. While most signs do point to another Oakland victory tonight, I am more confident in the fact that there will be more runs scored than what we saw yesterday. Take the Over. 

Last night marked Oakland’s sixth straight win here at Progressive Field and the team’s bullpen deserves virtually all of the credit. They did not get a good effort from Tuesday’s starter Sean Manaea, who allowed three runs in 1 ⅔ innings. But the relievers came in and did their job, not only keeping Cleveland scoreless for the rest of the game but also allowing only one hit! But that kind of bullpen usage puts a lot of pressure on tonight’s starter Frankie Montas, who still has a 4.10 ERA despite some recent strong efforts on the mound (five straight quality starts). I think Cleveland will be able to string together more offense tonight compared to yesterday. 

Cal Quantrill, like Montas, is coming off a strong five start stretch. In fact, the L5 starts by the Indians’ right-hander have stayed Under. But I see that string of quality efforts coming to an end here. The last Montas-Quantrill matchup (took place on 7/17) ended up being a 3-2 Oakland win. But the hitters are getting a second chance and in the case of BOTH lineups, should do better. Outside of a series with the Angels, the A’s have not gone Under in B2B games in awhile. The Over is 38-28-4 in Indians’ night games this year. 10* Over A’s/Indians

8* Under White Sox/Twins (1:10 ET): Chicago may be rolling towards the AL Central pennant, but mediocre play on the road may ultimately doom them in the postseason. This is basically a .500 team away from home (29-27) and they lost to the last place Twins last night by a score of 4-3. That all being said, I couldn’t possibly endorse the Twins in this spot either. They are just 5-13 vs. the White Sox in 2021 and were beaten 11-1 back in the series opener. What I do think is - similar to yesterday - this is set to be a pretty low-scoring day game. Take the Under.

White Sox pitching has allowed three runs or less in six of the last nine games. With Lance Lynn on the bump Wednesday afternoon, they’ve got a great chance to extend that streak. Lynn is coming off an outstanding July where he went 3-0 and posted a 2.10 ERA in five starts. He’s gone six-plus innings while allowing exactly one run in five of his last six outings. This will be the fifth time Lynn starts against Minnesota this season. So far he’s unbeaten (2-0) and has allowed just five runs (one unearned) on 16 hits in 24 IP. Lynn should come out a lot stronger than Dallas Kuechel did yesterday. Keuchel issued three walks in a two-run 1st inning for the Twins. 

The White Sox also didn’t help themselves at the plate last night as they struck out 10 times. One more word on that aforementioned road record of theirs - they’ve actually outscored opponents by a full run per game on the road this season, so maybe that record should be better. But they can’t run from the fact their scoring average dips to 4.4 runs per game in the daytime. Rookie Bailey Ober gets the starting nod here for Minnesota. He has not been all that successful in four previous starts against the White Sox this season, but did keep them scoreless for five innings (allowed just two hits!) the last time he faced them at home. 8* Under White Sox/Twins

10* Under Rangers/Mariners (10:10 ET): We’ve got two of the worst offensive teams in all of baseball right here. Both Texas and Seattle are bottom five in: team batting average, slugging percentage, on base percentage and OPS. They are the bottom two in both batting average and slugging. In addition, the Rangers are second worst in slugging and worst in OPS. So the Under makes a lot of sense here. Texas has scored the fewest runs among American League teams. They’ve also dropped six in a row coming into tonight while not scoring more than three runs in any of those losses. 

 If you're a regular client of mine, then you know my feelings on Seattle. They are currently 59-54 despite a run differential of -51. With that kind of run differential, this team should be nowhere near Wild Card contention. They have a “win expectancy” of 51. The eight-game gap between actual and expected wins is easily the largest in all of MLB. While the Mariners have generally thrived in one-run games this season, five of their last six losses have come by that margin. Their last six games, including a 2-0 win over the Yankees on Sunday, have all gone Under. 

Logan Gilbert doesn’t have the best ERA, but he does have 1.099 WHIP and an 11-3 TSR for the M’s. I expect him to pitch well tonight in what will be his third start of the season vs. Texas. The Rangers have dropped 14 consecutive road games and are hitting just .173 over the last week. Kolby Allard, today’s starter, is having a miserable season for them (1-11 TSR). But he was sharp in his last outing, allowing just two runs in six innings. His WHIP is only 1.20. 10* Under Rangers/Mariners

8* Atlanta (7:20 ET): This is a tough spot for Cincinnati, who just had a five-game win streak snapped yesterday in Cleveland. That was a make-up game from a May 9th rainout. It was supposed to be an off-day for the Reds, but now they find themselves playing in a third different city in as many days. It was nice when they got to face the lowly Pirates at home over the weekend, but you can’t play the last place team in your division every day. Meanwhile, the Braves did get to enjoy Monday off and they are a team I’ve got my eye on for the stretch run as they are the ONLY NL East team to have a positive run differential.

Does Drew Smyly “deserve” to have a 3-0 team start record in his last three starts? Probably not. He’s posted a 1.917 WHIP during that stretch for the Braves and not factored into any of the decisions. He lasted just four innings all three times. But all three starts were on the road. He’s undefeated in four career starts vs. Cincinnati with a 3.12 ERA and beat them back on June 25th (allowed only one run in six innings). The Reds’ offensive numbers dip (by a lot) on the road and they are coming off B2B games where they scored just three runs. 

Sonny Gray is tonight’s starter for Cincy. He’s been no better than Smyly of late with a 8.16 ERA and 1.605 WHIP in his last three starts. The Reds’ bullpen (5.27 ERA) is also bad. The Braves’ offensive numbers go up (by quite a bit) at home. Back to Gray, he struggled some against Pittsburgh (lowest scoring team in MLB) in his last start, giving up four runs in five innings. I just love the situation here for Atlanta, whose +65 YTD run diff speaks well to how well the remainder of the season should go for them. 8* Atlanta

8* LA Dodgers (7:05 ET): Despite coming into this game on an eight-game win streak, the Phillies are decided underdogs Tuesday. That’s because they are playing the Dodgers, who I have rated as #1 team in all of baseball in my own personal power ratings. For some, these distinctions may seem a bit odd. After all, the Phils are in first place in their division (NL East) while LA is in second in theirs (NL West). But just look at those respective run differentials. Philly, even with the win streak, has been outscored this season. The Dodgers have scored 171 more runs than they have allowed. 

Max Scherzer was acquired by the Dodgers at the trade deadline for moments just like these. Having come over from Washington, Scherzer is quite familiar with the Phillies. He’s 14-4 all-time against them with a 2.55 ERA. He actually pitched against them in his final start for the Nats and allowed just one run on three hits. He was every bit as good in his Dodgers’ debut, limiting a strong Houston lineup to just two runs on five hits over seven innings. Scherzer also matched his second highest strikeout total of the season with 10 in that game.

The Phillies’ sweep of the Mets over the weekend got them into first place. They held the Mets to five runs in three games. But the Dodgers’ lineup is far more formidable. They’ve scored more runs than every other NL team and more than every team besides Houston. Aaron Nola, who usually has the oddsmakers’ respect, has now allowed four or more runs in five of his last eight starts. He gave up five his last time out in a game the team was VERY lucky to win (trailed 5-1 going into the ninth). The Phillies are just 3-8 coming off an off-day while the Dodgers are 41-17 L58 in that situation. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Over Yankees/Royals (8:10 ET): The Yankees missed out on a chance to sweep the Mariners, losing Sunday by a score of 2-0. But I think they are likely to “rediscover” their offense tonight here in Kansas City as they oppose Carlos Hernandez and the Royals. While they were blanked yesterday, NY had previously averaged 7.2 runs per game during its five-game win streak. Take the Over here. 

Hernandez is coming off two straight effective outings against the White Sox. He won both by allowing just one run in 11 innings. However, it’s still a small sample size with the rookie, who has made only four starts this year. He has faced the Yankees once previous to this, but as a reliever on June 23rd. That appearance saw him blow a lead by giving up two runs in two innings. The Royals’ bullpen has gotten no better since Hernandez was moved to the starting rotation. Yesterday they gave up four runs in the late innings, resulting in the offense having to score in the top of the ninth in order to get the 6-5 win and avoid what would have been a three-game sweep. 

Jameson Taillon has pitched well of late for the Yankees (3-0 TSR, 1.42 ERA L3 starts), but there’s reason for concern with him in this spot as it’s a road game. Taillon has a 5.27 ERA and 1.402 WHIP in nine road starts. As a result, the Over is 7-2. He did pitch well against the Royals back on 6/24, but that was at home and this will be their second time seeing him. The Royals scoring average at home jumps from 3.5 rpg on the road to 4.7 at home. The pitcher had to come up to bat in the last series (at St. Louis), which is no longer the case here. 10* Over Yankees/Royals

10* Under Angels/Dodgers (4:05 ET): I’m just going to go ahead and take from my writeup (which told you to play the Under) on Friday’s game between these teams. There are many factors that I consider when betting a MLB total. Virtually all of them line up here towards taking the Under. Notably, we’ve got an American League team not able to play with the DH. The loss of the designated hitter becomes even more pronounced for the Angels when you consider visiting teams are averaging just 3.5 runs per game at Dodger Stadium. Not only did Friday’s game stay Under (4-3 final) so did Saturday’s (5-3).

Over their last 10 games, the Angels have topped five runs only once. That was against a terrible Rangers team. They have been held to three runs or less in seven of those ten games. They figure to struggle to score runs again today as they have to face Walker Buehler. Buehler was already having another great season for the Dodgers with a 2.16 ERA and 0.918 WHIP. But lately, he’s been “lights out.” He’s allowed just four runs in his last five starts and has a 0.89 ERA in the last three. Over the last two months, Buehler has allowed a grand total of two home runs. 

With the Angels likely to struggle to score runs in this game, all we now need to “worry about” is the Dodgers’ offense. Thankfully, it is quite likely that they’ll only come up to bat eight times in this game. (This is assuming they have the lead heading into the ninth). The Dodgers have been shutout twice in the last eight games though. They lost Friday’s game and it still went Under. So regardless of who wins here, anything but another low-scoring game would surprise me. Reid Detmers is a lefty and the Dodgers are 19-13 Under this season when facing a southpaw. 10* Under Angels/Dodgers

10* Under Twins/Astros (2:10 ET): Houston finally won a game in this series, snapping what was a three-game losing skid with a 4-0 shutout yesterday. Despite the recent skid and the fact their lead in the AL West is down to three games over Oakland, I don’t think there’s any “problem” in Houston right now. The club still sports the best run differential (+151) in the American League and will have no problem making the postseason. Minnesota came into 2021 thinking playoffs, but they have been one of the most disappointing teams in the league this season as they are in last place in the Central and down 27.6 units at the betting window. 

The ML is too rich for my blood here and I don’t want to risk the chance the Astros win this game by only one run (so no run line). But I am confident this one stays Under the total. Houston may be the highest scoring team in MLB, but they actually average more runs per game on the road. They also have not scored more than five runs in any game in August. Kenta Maeda starts today for the Twins and should bounce back from a rough outing at Cincinnati last week. Prior to giving up five runs in that game, Maeda had allowed 3 ER or less in five straight starts and 11 of his last 12. 

Lance McCullers Jr threw 6 ⅔ scoreless innings for Houston in a 3-0 win over the Dodgers last weekend. He looks to replicate that performance as he toes the rubber again Sunday. McCullers comes in with a 9-2 WL record and 3.02 ERA. Prior to that last outing, he’d given up four runs in B2B starts. But before that he’d allowed 3 ER or less in 14 of his 15 starts. Including last year’s brief playoff series, these teams have combined to go 6-1-1 Under against each other the L2 seasons. The Twins are 8-0-1 Under their last nine games vs. AL West teams. 10* Under Twins/Astros

8* Over Green/Fisiev (9:25 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Lightweight Division (155 lbs). It will be the final fight on the prelims, which you can watch for free on ESPN 2. Bobby Green, a veteran, comes in with a 27-11-1 career mark. That includes a 8-6-1 record in the UFC. He has his work cut out for him Saturday night against the emerging Rafael Fisiev (9-1 overall, 3-1 UFC), who has put together an impressive three-fight win streak. But despite the lopsided odds, I wouldn’t completely count Green out. I think there’s a good chance this one makes it to the judges, so I’m going Over 2.5 rounds. 

Fiziev arrived in the UFC with an unbeaten record and plenty of hype. So it was a shocker when he was knocked out in less than 90 seconds by Magomed Mustafaev back in April of 2019, his first fight with the promotion. But since that time, Fiziev has put it together with three straight wins. Two were by decision. The most recent was a first round knockout of Renato Carniero in December of last year. The long layoff between fights is worth noting and I think we could see a slower than expected start from “Ataman.” 

Staying active has typically never been an issue for Green, who fought four times in 2020. He started the year 3-0, but then dropped a decision to Thiago Moises in October. All four fights went to the scorecards. It’s interesting that after being so active last year, Green has an even longer layoff than Fisiev. It could be that this is the only fight of 2021 for both fighters. Yes, they’ll be looking to make it count, but I also think they’ll be more cautious at the start. I think that Green’s wrestling ability will be able to keep the fight going. Look for this one to make it past the halfway point of round three - at least. 8* Over Green/Fisiev

10* Run Line Atlanta (7:20 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Braves -1.5. The Braves are a team that I am “buying” right now. Look at their YTD run differential compared to the rest of the National League East. They have scored 65 more runs than they’ve allowed this season. Every other team in the division has been outscored over the course of 2021. Last night’s 8-4 win was the team’s fourth in a row. It was also the Nationals’ fifth straight loss. Look for those streaks to continue Saturday with the Braves winning this one by at least a two-run margin.

All the talk in the NL East right now is about how the Phillies have wrested first place from the Mets. But the Braves are just a game out of first entering Saturday and I expect them to win the division for a fourth consecutive season. Run differential is a great predictor of future outcomes. Charlie Morton, who will start tonight’s game, is off his first loss since June 11th. However, he has allowed 3 ER or less in five consecutive outings. His only previous start vs. Washington this season resulted in a 5-3 win (back on May 31st). 

The Nats were sellers at the trade deadline and I’m not expecting them to do very well the rest of the season. Trea Turner and Max Scherzer were sent to Los Angeles, leaving gaping holes on the roster. Josiah Gray was one of the players acquired in that trade with the Dodgers. He makes his second start for the Nats tonight. His first was a 7-5 loss to Philadelphia. Nationals’ pitching has given up a total of 36 runs during the 5-game losing streak. That’s a lot and here they are facing a lineup that averages 5.3 rpg at home. 10* Run Line Atlanta

8* Under Mets/Phillies (4:05 ET): Philadelphia won its sixth straight game on Friday and is now in first place in the NL East. After scoring a total of 43 runs in the previous five games, they needed only four to take last night’s series opener from the Mets. The Phillies were fortunate, not only to overcome three errors, but also that the Mets 1 for 8 with RISP. In the fourth inning, the Mets loaded the bases with nobody out but were unable to score any runs. I don’t think we’re going to see much scoring in this day game, so Under is the call here. 

This is the first time in three months that the Mets do NOT enter the day in first place. Injuries have really taken a toll on this team with the most notable absence being Jacob deGrom. But they still are one of only a handful of teams to be allowing less than 4.0 runs per game on the year. Saturday’s starter Tylor Megill has pitched quite well in his eight starts, posting a 2.68 ERA and 1.091 WHIP. He did struggle in his last outing, giving up a season-high five runs (four earned), but I like him to bounce back here. The Phillies have never faced him and their offensive production is due to tail off. 

Though they are hot right now, I’m still a little lukewarm on the Phillies. Look for the Braves to win this division. But that’s a discussion for a different day. When the Phils face the Mets, typically you see very few runs scored. In 9 of the last 11 meetings, there have been seven or fewer total runs scored. That makes sense for a divisional matchup. So last night wasn’t out of the ordinary. Ranger Suarez makes his second start of the year for Philly here. The first saw him toss three scoreless innings and he didn’t give up a hit. Sounds good enough to me as the Mets average just 3.8 rpg. 8* Under Mets/Phillies

8* Run Line NY Yankees (1:05 ET): The Yankees appear poised to make a run. After coming from behind to defeat the Mariners 3-2 yesterday, they are a season-high 11 games over .500 and only 1.5 games back of the Wild Card. They've won their last four games and seven of the last eight. As for Seattle, I’m quite amused by the fact that four of their last five losses have been by one run. They are a team that has overachieved all season long, in part due to an unsustainable record in one-run games (now 23-12). But please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Yanks -1.5. 

If you're a regular client of mine, then you know my feelings on Seattle. They are currently 58-53 despite a run differential of -52. That run differential gives them a win expectancy of 50. The eight-game gap between actual and expected wins is easily the largest in all of MLB. They've not only thrived in one-run games, but also extra innings (9-3). So, in my view, it was “just desserts” for them to lose the way they did Friday. The bottom line with the Mariners is they are NOT as good as their record and will fall out of contention for the WIld Card. Something else to consider is they have the lowest team batting average (.222) in all of MLB.

The Mariners might be 14-6 with Chris Flexen on the mound this year, but today’s starter has struggled on the road. He has a 5.44 ERA and 1.567 WHIP away from home. Yet, mirroring his team’s overachieving nature, Flexen has a 6-2 TSR on the road. The Yankees go with Andrew Heaney this afternoon, hoping he turns in a better performance than what we saw in his team debut. The former Angel allowed four home runs in his last start. But considering Seattle’s poor offensive numbers, I think Heaney will round back into better form Saturday. Seattle is 17-37 L54 road games vs. a LH starter. 8* Run Line NY Yankees (-1.5)

8* Under Angels/Dodgers (10:10 ET): There are many factors that I consider when betting a MLB total. Virtually all of them line up here towards taking the Under. Notably, we’ve got an American League team not able to play with the DH. The loss of the designated hitter becomes even more pronounced for the Angels when you consider visiting teams are averaging just 3.5 runs per game at Dodger Stadium. An all-lefty starting pitching matchup is another reason to not expect many runs tonight. Most hitters tend to struggle vs. lefties, especially when they are unfamiliar with them as is the case here.

We’ve got two good southpaws on the mound as well. Patrick Sandoval goes for the Angels. He’s allowed three runs or less in 11 of 12 starts this season. He was marvelous on July 24th at Minnesota when he came within one out of a complete game. Sandoval struck out 13 batters and allowed just one run (and one hit!) that day. He didn’t go nearly as long his last time out, but again allowed just one run vs. Oakland on July 30th. Unfortunately for him, the Angels’ offense forgot to score in what ended up being a 2-0 loss.

The Angels figure to struggle again at the plate tonight. They will face David Price. Now Price shockingly has an 0-5 TSR in his L5 starts. But the Under is still 6-1 when he pitches this year. He’s yet to allow more than 3 ER. Run support has been an issue though with the team scoring just 22 runs in Price’s seven starts. The last one saw them get blanked 5-0 by the Giants, one of two times in the last six games that they’ve been shut out. The Angels just won in shutout fashion yesterday, by the way. I do expect this to be a Dodgers win, which would be helpful to the Under as it would likely mean they don’t come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth. 8* Under Angels/Dodgers

10* Under Marlins/Rockies (8:40 ET): The two franchises that came into existence in 1993 square off this weekend at Coors Field. It’s the Marlins first visit here since 2019. Taking the Under at Coors may seem counterintuitive (thin air!) but the Under percentage here is actually the 4th highest in all of MLB (57.4%). Oddsmakers are keenly aware of the park’s reputation and always set the O/U line high. Miami’s offense shouldn’t scare anyone and I think we’ve got a pretty good starting pitching matchup tonight. The Rockies' last two games, one win and one loss, both stayed Under and those were here at home. 

German Marquez is someone who is clearly not bothered by the reputation of Coors Field. He’s 6-2 in home starts (10-3 TSR) with a 3.29 ERA and 1.148 WHIP this year. He has a 1.53 ERA in his L7 home starts! Quite frankly, it hasn’t mattered where the All-Star has pitched in 2021, he’s doing a tremendous job leading this staff. Over his L13 starts, Marquez has posted a 2.43 ERA. Over his L8 starts, he’s posted a 1.99 ERA. Last time out, he held the Padres to two runs and four hits. He should have little difficulty shutting down a Marlins lineup that has hit just .215 in its L7 games while scoring an average of 3.1 rpg. 

Despite a scuffling lineup, Miami did just take three of four from the Mets. Now they hope Sandy Alcantara can limit the Rockies’ offense. I think he’s the perfect man for the job considering he just tossed seven shutout innings of two-hit ball in his last start. That came against the Yankees. It was the 7th time this season that Alcantara has gone 7+ innings and given up two or fewer runs. Problem is that the Marlins are just 2-5 in those games. That’s indicative of lousy run support, which is likely to be the case again tonight. Look for the two starting pitchers to take charge Friday night in what promises to be a low scoring game. 10* Under Marlins/Rockies

9* Over Rays/Orioles (7:05 ET): With these teams occupying opposite ends of the AL East spectrum, it’s certainly no surprise to see first place Tampa Bay is 8-1 in the season series against last place Baltimore. The Rays did have some trouble with Seattle in their last series, losing the first two games before a 4-3 win on Wednesday. But they still come into today holding a 1.5 game lead over Boston. Meanwhile, the Orioles surrendered 23 runs in their last two games and have fallen to 31 games below .500. They’ve given up the second most runs in all of MLB this year and thus I’m on the Over in this series opener. 

Tampa Bay has certainly had no problems scoring on Baltimore pitching this season. Only once in nine games have they failed to score five runs. They’ve averaged 7.0 runs across the nine games. Two of those nine games have come against today’s Orioles’ starter, John Means. Means made his return to the rotation (after a near two month absence) against the Rays on July 20th and gave up five runs in five innings. Earlier in the year, he allowed four runs in a 9-7 loss to the Rays. Both games went Over. Means looked a lot better at Detroit last week, picking up his 1st win since May 5th. But he did allow a HR, his 7th straight start doing so. In five of those seven starts he’s allowed multiple HRs. 

Tampa Bay is very stingy at home where they allow just 3.3 rpg. But on the road, that number balloons to 4.7 rpg allowed. Luckily for them, their own scoring average jumps to 5.4 rpg away from Tropicana Field. No surprise then that the Over is 31-18-3 in all Rays’ road games. Ryan Yarbrough has a 5.60 ERA in three previous starts vs. Baltimore this year and a 6.11 ERA in his L3 starts overall. One of those was against Baltimore as he allowed six runs in 5 ⅔ IP. He was no better last time out as Boston scored five times off him in 5 IP. 9* Over Rays/Orioles

8* Chi White Sox (2:20 ET): I don’t think there should be doubt in anyone’s mind over just who is the best team in Chicago right now. The White Sox have lived up to the hype in 2021, building the largest division lead of any first place team in baseball. They are running away with the AL Central and no one is going to catch them. The Cubs basically “threw in the towel” at the trade deadline and I can’t blame them as they had no chance of making up a sizable deficit in the NL Central. They enter the weekend 13.5 games out of first place and have lost seven out of the last nine games. Don’t overthink this one.

Now the White Sox have dropped two in a row themselves. Those losses came at the hands of Kansas City, a division rival that has curiously given them some problems all season long. But when not facing the Royals, the Sox boast an impressive 55-38 won-loss record. The road has been somewhat unkind to them (25-26 record), but what’s interesting about that is they have scored 4.9 runs per game away from home while allowing only 4.2. So that WL record should be better. They are 13-7 as a road favorite of -125 to -175. 

Lance Lynn (10-3, 2.07 ERA, 1.058 WHIP) should have little difficulty shutting down a National League lineup today. There has been only one time all season that Lynn allowed more than 3 ER in a start. That was against Houston, the highest scoring team in all of MLB. The Cubs aren’t even a good NL lineup as they are hitting just .227 for the year. Kyle Hendricks would have to turn in an amazing start today for the home team to have a chance, but he is just 1-4 lifetime vs. the White Sox. I know Hendricks is tied for the MLB lead in wins (13), but you wouldn’t know that from his “other numbers.” 8* Chi White Sox

10* Under Cowboys/Steelers (8:00 ET): Scoring may have reached an all-time high last season, but don’t look for much of that in the Hall of Fame Game between the Cowboys and Steelers. Last year’s HOF Game, along with the rest of the preseason, was nixed due to the pandemic. In case you’d forgotten, the NFL Preseason is a “whole different ball game” with stars sitting and backups taking the majority of the snaps. Nowhere is this more apparent than the “annual” game in Canton. Six of the last eight HOF Games have seen 33 or less total points scored. I think that trend will continue in 2021. Take the Under. 

Dak Prescott has been ruled out for Dallas, which means that Garrett Gilbert, Cooper Rush and Ben DiNucci will split the snaps under center. The Cowboys were terrible offensively without Prescott last season. Gilbert figures to get the start. The Steelers, who figure to have one of the top defenses in the league again this year, saw Gilbert in 2020. They held him to 243 yards and one touchdown in a 24-19 win. With far less talent set to be on the field Thursday, this one will be even lower scoring. Mike McCarthy is not a coach I have much affinity for to begin with and I don’t see him opening up the playbook here. 

Like Prescott, Ben Roethlisberger won’t play here for the Steelers. Not like Big Ben is much of a difference maker anymore anyway. Mason Rudolph, Dwayne Haskins and Joshua Dobbs are the three QBs we figure to see for the Black and Gold and I doubt any of them will do very much. It’s the first game, so expect vanilla game plans, little risk and not much scoring. Both coaching staffs just want to leave Canton healthy. Winning isn’t even that important here. 10* Under Cowboys/Steelers

8* Run Line Washington (4:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Nationals +1.5. This series has obviously not gone well for the Nats as they’ve dropped the first three games. But losing four in a row at home is “hard to do” and the Phillies aren’t a team I have any real affinity for. The home team did jump out to an early 3-0 lead last night (on three solo homers), but couldn’t hold as Nats starter Paolo Espino struggled mightily. However, the Phillies are still eight games below .500 on the road this year and I wouldn’t trust them to win this one by more than a single run.

Aaron Nola is someone who seems to command the oddsmakers’ respect. I took him on July 25th against Atlanta, a game he nearly went the distance and allowed just one run. But the team has a losing record with Nola on the mound this year (10-11) after losing his last start 3-2 at last place Pittsburgh. It is worth noting that before the time I took him, the right-hander had given up four or more runs in four of six starts. Nola has a losing career record vs. Washington, though he somehow has not faced them this season despite the teams meeting 15 times.

Joe Ross toes the rubber for the home team as they look to avoid the sweep. Ross has a 2.31 ERA in eight previous appearances vs. Philly. The most recent saw him toss five shutout innings of a three-hit ball - a game the Nationals ended up losing by one run. Back in June vs. the Phillies, all four runs that Ross allowed were unearned. So he’s got a good track record against them and as long as there are no mistakes in the field, he should keep them to a low number. Washington is a .500 team at home this year. 8* Run Line Washington (+1.5)

10* Under Giants/D’backs (3:40 ET): So the Giants won yesterday, 7-1, thus improving to 11-2 vs. Arizona this season. One of those two losses occurred on Tuesday, by a score of 3-1, so it’s been B2B Unders in this series. San Francisco is tied with Milwaukee and the Dodgers for the fewest number of runs allowed this season, so it’s not really a surprise to see the D’backs struggling to score runs here. Last night’s game was a little misleading (more on that in a moment) in terms of how many runs were scored, so I’ll be on the Under this afternoon. I don’t think the Giants will match yday’s offensive production. 

So last night’s game was 3-1 in the top of the 7th and it appeared as if that half inning was over when LaMonte Wade Jr struck out. However, Wade was able to reach first on a wild pitch. That wild pitch proved costly as it opened the door for the Giants to score four times before the inning was over. None of that scoring “should” have taken place and had it not, these teams would be coming off B2B low-scoring games. Last night’s game still went Under mind you. 

It’s been a bleak season for Arizona, but Thursday starter Merrill Kelly has been one of the few bright spots. Kelly had gone 5-0 during a seven-start stretch from June 21st to July 24th. That may not sound like much, but consider the D’backs have just 34 wins this season. Ten of those have come with Kelly on the bump. Last time he faced SF, Kelly held them to three runs over seven innings. Alex Wood gets the nod here for the Giants and he has won four straight decisions coming into today. He’s also 2-0 vs. Arizona this year, having allowed just four runs in 11 innings. He has 15 strikeouts in the two starts. The D’backs hit just .226 vs. lefties. 10* Under Giants/D’backs

10* LA Angels (8:05 ET): This is as big a pitching mismatch as you’ll see on the Wednesday slate and it’s pretty shocking the Angels aren’t bigger favorites on the money line. Shohei Ohtani, the two-way sensation who leads MLB with 37 home runs, will be making his first start since July 26th. Not including the All-Star Game, Ohtani made three starts in July. He won all three, posting a 1.35 ERA, 0.70 WHIP and a 17-1 KW rate. Were it not for one wretched start at Yankees Stadium on 6/30, Ohtani’s overall numbers would be even more impressive. He’s allowed 2 ER or less in seven of his last eight starts. 

At the other end of the spectrum, you’ve got Kolby Allard for the Rangers. He’s 0-7 his L7 starts, which is the longest single-season losing streak by any Rangers starter in franchise history. During this hideous run, he posted a 7.82 ERA. It gets even worse when you look at just the last three starts where his ERA is 13.14 and his WHIP is 2.028. Allard has given up seven runs in B2B starts, despite lasting just seven innings total. So, to summarize, we’ve got maybe the most talented player in the game starting for one team and one of the biggest money losers (-8.4) in the game starting for the other. 

If it was just a matter of Ohtani vs. Allard, maybe there would be SOME pause. But the fact of the matter is the Angels also beat the Rangers 11-3 yesterday. They got three hits and three RBI’s from top prospect Jo Adell, who made his season debut. Ohtani also drove in two runs. Ohtani won both starts against Texas back in April, the only two times he’s ever faced them. Allard’s lack of success is nothing new either. He has a 2-15 record the L2 seasons. Texas is one of the four worst teams in baseball and just playing out the string. The Angels’ Wild Card chances aren’t great, but at least they are still in the race. 10* LA Angels

8* Under Pirates/Brewers (2:10 ET): The Pirates stunned the Brewers last night, winning 8-5 in 10 innings. All eight of the Pirates’ runs came in two innings. They had a five-run seventh and then put three on the board in the top of the 10th to win the game. Not only were the Bucs initially down 4-0, but they didn’t have a single hit until the seventh inning! In retrospect, the decision by Brewers’ manager Craig Counsell to pull starter Adrian Houser (who still had the no-hitter intact) looks foolish. But what really opened the door for the Pirates’ rally was an error on a ground-ball (that could have been turned into an inning-ending double play). Four more runs were scored in that inning after the error. 

Based on the fact they didn’t have a hit until the seventh and couldn’t get a runner past second base until the fifth, I wouldn’t expect Pittsburgh to score eight runs again this afternoon. Keep in mind this is the lowest-scoring team in all of MLB at 3.7 runs per game. On the road, that number drops to 3.4. They are facing Freddy Peralta today, which doesn’t help either. Peralta has a 2.21 ERA (2nd best in NL) and 0.84 WHIP in 19 starts for the Brew Crew and he hasn’t allowed a single run in either of his last two starts. In fact, he gave up only three hits! He’s allowed 3 ER or less in 13 straight starts. In three starts this year vs. Pittsburgh, Peralta has a 2.65 ERA. 

Yesterday was only the ninth time all season that Milwaukee lost when scoring four or more runs. It will be interesting to see what they can do today against Steven Brault, who has not started a big league game this season. Brault began the year on the 60-day DL. He posted a 1.42 ERA in four rehab starts. At the end of last season, Brault was pitching pretty well and his L9 starts all went Under. I think he can keep this Brewers’ lineup, which is tied for 28th in MLB in batting average, in check. 8* Under Pirates/Brewers

8* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): This series has NOT gone as I’d anticipated. The Mariners have won the first two games, 8-2 and 4-2. But my read on the respective ball clubs has not changed. I continue to believe Seattle is vastly overrated. They are 58-50, but have a -48 run differential. Based on that run differential, they have an “expected” win total of 49. The nine-game difference between actual and expected wins is easily the largest in all of MLB. No other team has exceeded its expected win total by more than five. That the M’s are now 6-0 this season vs. the Rays seems preposterous, so I’m going with the home team yet again. 

Seattle is the ONLY team that Tampa Bay has played this season and not beaten at least once. Typically, the Mariners have excelled in close games (23-10 in one-run, 9-2 in extras), but tip your cap to them in this series as they’ve simply played better. But the Rays still only allow 3.3 runs per game at home for the season and Seattle is last in baseball in team batting average plus they are 29th in OBP. This should be a very favorable matchup for the Rays, who continue to lead the AL East and have a top five scoring differential in all of baseball. It’s very head-scratching to see what’s unfolded over the L2 days. 

Tampa Bay did outhit their visitors last night, not that it mattered. Seattle still has a losing road record, by the way. It’s all up to Josh Fleming today as the Rays starter hopes to give his team something resembling his last two outings. Fleming made one big mistake (gave up a grand slam) when he faced the M’s on 6/19. He didn’t factor into the decision nor did Lucas Gilbert for Seattle, who will again oppose Fleming here. Gilbert has an 11-2 TSR overall, including 6-0 on the road, despite mediocre numbers. Like his team, Gilbert is due to drop a decision here. I don’t care about the H2H record. Tampa Bay IS the better team here. 8* Tampa Bay

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): These are my #1 and #2 ranked teams in all of baseball. For Tuesday, I’m siding with #1 as the Dodgers look to have a sizable edge on the mound. Walker Buehler, one of the more underappreciated starters in the game today, has an 11-1 record in 21 starts to go along with a 2.19 ERA and 0.899 WHIP. He is coming off an outing where he threw seven scoreless innings against San Francisco, another top three team in my power ratings. That marked the 18th time this season that Buehler has gone six or more innings and allowed three or fewer earned runs. He was named “Pitcher of the Month” for the National League in July. 

It’s not that Buehler’s counterpart, Lance McCullers Jr, is bad. But he hasn’t had a particularly strong start to the second half. He’s given up four runs in B2B outings and those came against Cleveland and Seattle, two of the worst hitting teams in all of baseball. The Dodgers have scored more runs this season than every team besides the Astros. But remember they have the edge here due to the game taking place at Dodger Stadium. There’s no DH for the Astros. Playing in the NL, the Dodgers 5.2 rpg average is probably more impressive than the Astros’ 5.5 rpg. Road teams hit just .213 at Chavez Ravine. 

The Dodgers have gone just 6-8 since the Break. You’ve got to figure a big run is on the horizon as they look to catch the Giants, whom they trail by 3.5 games in the NL West. Houston just lost two of three to the Giants. So did the Dodgers right before that, but they bounced back to take two of three from the lowly D’backs, including a 13-0 win on Sunday. Houston is just 3-7 vs. the National League this season. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): So it turns out that I was dead wrong on this matchup yesterday as the Mariners ended up winning 8-2 behind 6 ⅔ solid innings from Chris Flexen. But my assessments of the two teams still haven't changed one iota. Seattle is the biggest overachiever in all of MLB. Based on their run differential (-50), they have an expected record of 48-59. Yet they are 57-40 due to tremendously good fortune in one-run (23-10) and extra-inning games (9-2). Their nine-game difference between actual and expected wins is easily the largest in all of MLB this season. (No one else greater than +5). 

Tampa Bay is 0-5 against Seattle this year, so they can feel my pain. The Mariners are the ONLY team this season to have an unbeaten record against the Rays. The fact TB was coming off an impressive three-game sweep of the Red Sox over the weekend makes last night’s loss even more difficult to fathom. The Rays are still in first place in the AL East, one game in front of Boston (who was idle yesterday), but the lead is just a single game. They can’t afford any kind of “August swoon.” The fact they have the fifth best run differential in all of MLB (+104) speaks well to how they should perform moving forward. 

Giving up eight runs at home (as they did yday) is highly uncharacteristic for Tampa Bay. They came into Monday allowing just 3.2 rpg at Tropicana Field with opponents batting just .209. Tuesday starter Luis Patino has a 0.71 ERA and 0.789 WHIP (phenomenal numbers) in three previous starts at home. He threw six shutout innings of three-hit ball against the Yankees his last time out. As for Seattle’s Yusei Kikuchi, he has struggled mightily of late with a 7.31 ERA and 1.625 WHIP in his L3 starts. The Rays remain 65-24 L89 games as a home favorite, so this is a clear bounce back situation. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Run Line Toronto (7:07 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Blue Jays -1.5. Truthfully, playing Toronto this way on Monday (which I made the mistake of doing) never looked good. They never even led, but the game did go to the 10th inning tied 2-2. That is when Jose Ramirez’s three-run HR won it for Cleveland. The Blue Jays continue to be one of the more confounding teams in all of MLB as they are just five games above .500 (54-49) despite having a run differential (+104) that is sixth best in all of MLB. I still have faith that this team can make a run at the Wild Card. Look for them to win by multiple runs on Tuesday. 

Last night marked the home team’s first loss in Toronto this season. Of course, they just returned here for the first time in nearly two years. The weekend saw them sweep the Royals and they certainly seemed to have some “momentum” (hate that word) coming into this series. Unfortunately, they really couldn’t get the bats going on Monday. They probably will NOT be able to maintain the same scoring average we saw in Dunedin and Buffalo (5.8 rpg), but they did average 5.0 rpg in the three-game sweep of the Royals. I expect a lot more production at the plate tonight. 

Hyun-Jin Ryu should take care of the Indians’ hitters. He has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts after tossing six shutout innings at Fenway Park last Thursday. He has a 1.56 ERA and 0.981 WHIP over those L3 starts. Cleveland, not a good offensive team, is bottom five in both batting average and OBP. Manager Terry Francona has taken a leave of absence for the rest of the season, which isn’t good. Neither is the club’s -27 run differential. Zach Plesac (4.59 ERA on the road) starts today for an Indians team that is 0-5 off its last five victories and 1-10 after scoring 5+ runs the previous game. I view Toronto as a much more serious threat than Cleveland in the Wild Card hunt. 8* Run Line Toronto (-1.5)

10* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): It all lines up for us here as Tampa Bay hosts Seattle on Monday. The home team has revenge from a four-game sweep that occurred out in the Pacific Northwest back in June. They come in fresh off a four-game sweep of Boston. After sweeping, the Rays are now in first place of the AL East, which is where they belong given their +112 YTD run differential (tied for 4th best). As for the Mariners, we’ve “been through it” with them before. No team has overachieved more this season in the sense that they have been outscored by 56 runs, yet they have a 56-50. A team with a -56 run differential has a win expectancy of 47. The nine-game difference between actual and expected wins is easily the largest in all of MLB this season. 

But the weekend saw the Mariners get a taste of their own medicine. They are off back to back one-run losses to the Rangers. A 23-10 record in one-run games (including the B2B losses) and a 9-2 record in extras is how Seattle has been able to overachieve, record-wise. Those records demonstrate a tremendous amount of good fortune. I don’t see it continuing, especially here in Tampa. The Rays’ weekend couldn’t have gone any better and they allow just 3.2 runs per game at home (not to mention a .209 average). Seattle is bottom four in MLB in batting average, slugging and OPS, including dead last in BA. 

The Mariners are giving up 5.4 runs per game on the road and Monday starter Chris Flexen sees his own personal numbers go way up away from T-Mobile Park. He has a 5.92 ERA and 1.605 WHIP in seven road starts. He also just gave up seven runs in his last start, which was at home. Michael Wacha is coming off a very solid July and has a 1.93 ERA/0.893 WHIP at home for the year. Homefield advantage, revenge and just being plain better. It’s all there for the Rays on Monday and I expect them to win very big. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Run Line Toronto (3:07 ET): It speaks volumes that the Jays are such big favorites on the money line for this afternoon game. But please note that I am taking them on the run line, -1.5. The team’s return to Toronto following an almost two-year absence (COVID-19) went perfectly as they swept the Royals over the weekend. They gave up only five runs in the three games. I’ve discussed it before, but the Blue Jays’ record should be a lot better. I say that based on the fact they have MLB’s sixth best run differential (+107). They’ve now won five in a row and I think they’ll continue to roll on Monday.

Cleveland, meanwhile, was a seller at the trade deadline despite being in second place in the AL Central and within striking distance of the Wild Card. But a -30 run differential paints a more accurate picture of this ballclub, which now will be without skipper Terry Francona (leave of absence) for the remainder of the season. The soon to be “Guardians” dropped two of three over the weekend in what was a very competitive series with the White Sox. I won with them on Saturday. But again, this line should speak volumes about where these respective clubs are “at” right now. 

Robbie Ray toes the rubber for the home team in this series opener. He’s made 20 starts this year and has a 3.04 ERA/1.073 WHIP. Six of his last seven starts have been quality outings, meaning he’s gone at least six innings while allowing three runs or less. He has a 2.27 ERA and 0.916 WHIP during that time. For Cleveland, Eli Morgan will start opposite Ray and he’s going to have to deal with an offense that leads all of baseball in scoring at home. Now that’s because all but three games were in Dunedin/Buffalo, but it’s worth noting the Blue Jays averaged 5.0 rpg over the weekend. Morgan has a 7.47 ERA in seven starts. Toronto is 25-12 in day games this season. 8* Run Line Toronto (-1.5)

10* Mexico (8:30 ET): So we’re down to the final matchup everyone expected in the Gold Cup with Mexico taking on the United States. This is a rematch of the 2019 Final, won by Mexico 1-0 in Chicago. This year’s Final takes place in Las Vegas. Mexico was the favorite coming into the Gold Cup and has conceded only one goal in their five matches. The same can be said for the U.S., who had the second lowest odds to win coming into the tournament. Both sides are off close calls in the semifinals, but at the end of the day Mexico is simply the better and more experienced side. I look for a repeat of two years ago. 

Mexico did need a stoppage time goal to edge Canada 2-1 in the semis but had largely been dominant before that in this Gold Cup run. It was their first time ever opening this tournament with four successive clean sheets. They finally conceded in the 57th minute vs. Canada, but still have never trailed in this tournament. They whipped Honduras 3-0 in the quarterfinals, scoring all three goals in the opening 40 minutes. It was Honduras’ worst loss in any competition in two years. With at least six shots on target in every match so far, El Tri probably should have more goals to its credit in this tournament. 

In my previous analysis, I mentioned how Mexico has now made it to seven straight Gold Cup semifinals. This is their 10th all-time appearance in the Final and they’ve conceded only three goals in the previous nine. They have a 6-1 record vs. the Americans in the Final match, but are out for revenge here after losing in the Finals of the Nations League last month. I just can’t see the U.S. beating Mexico two straight times. Not with the average age of the starting XI being just under 24 years. The US was outshot 17-6 by Qatar in the semis and has only scored one goal in four of its five matches so far. The lone goals scored their last two times out both came beyond the 80th minute. 10* Mexico

10* Tampa Bay (7:08 ET): Coming into this series, I felt the Rays were the better team. That may seem “convenient” to say now following a pair of four-run victories over the Red Sox. But, as my regular clients understand, I always keep an eye on the run differential column. For a while now, Tampa Bay has been well out in front of Boston in that regard. The Rays have outscored their 2021 opponents by 111 runs while Boston is “only” +48. So it’s not a surprise to me that TB is now up by half a game in the AL East. 

I look for the Rays to finish off the sweep Sunday night behind Shane McClanahan. This team is ultra-stingy at home, giving up just 3.2 runs per game and a .209 batting average. When they are scoring like they have been in this series (7 and 9 runs), it’s almost impossible to beat them at Tropicana Field. They have a 33-20 home record, including 14-7 as a favorite of -125 to -175. McClanahan, a southpaw, just suffered his first loss of the season at home. But it came in a quality start against the Yankees as he’s now allowed 3 ER or less in eight consecutive outings. You can count on him getting the job done here. 

While Tampa Bay has won three straight and 8 out of their last 11, Boston is on a four-game losing streak where they’ve been outscored by 24 runs. Nick Pivetta has a very misleading 14-6 team start record for the Red Sox as he’s allowed 4+ ER in three consecutive trips to the mound (7.04 ERA, 1.76 WHIP). Now he didn’t allow any hits in 6 ⅔ innings when he last pitched here in Tampa. But he’s struggled in four of his five starts since that time. The Rays are the better team here. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Atlanta (1:20 ET): The Braves are a team worth monitoring right now. They have the NL East’s best run differential (+50). They are actually the only team in their division with a positive run differential. Saturday’s 8-1 win over Milwaukee moved them into second place and kept them within four games of the first place Mets. Though the Braves are just 27-26 at home, they are averaging 5.3 runs per game here and I see them taking this series. Sunday starter Charlie Morton is unbeaten over his L8 starts. 

Darby Swanson did most of the damage for Atlanta yesterday, hitting his second career grand slam and driving in seven runs overall. It’s not easy putting up eight runs on this Milwaukee pitching staff, but the Braves did it and I think they are capable of another big game at the plate today. Starter Brett Anderson hasn’t been nearly as effective on the road for the Brew Crew with a 4.50 ERA and 1.334 WHIP. He lasted only 3 ⅔ innings and gave up four runs when he faced Atlanta earlier this year. Recently, Anderson has faced a slew of poor opponents. This Braves lineup is much better than the likes of Pittsburgh, KC and Arizona. 

Morton is 5-0 over his L8 starts and is 10-3 for the season. Over those L8 starts, he’s allowed 3 ER or less seven times. This will be his first time facing Milwaukee in 2021. The Brewers couldn’t manage much at the plate in yesterday’s game. COVID-19 has rendered Christian Yelich out of the lineup as well as a few others. Atlanta is due to win here as they’ve alternated wins and losses in their L16 games, which is the longest such streak of doing so in franchise history. They have not had a winning record all season, but a win here gets them to .500. It’s time. 8* Atlanta

8* NY Mets (1:10 ET): After dropping the series opener on Friday, the Mets bounced back to win a 10-inning affair on Saturday, 5-4. The newly acquired Javy Baez was a big part of the rally for the home team, which ended the Reds’ four-game win streak and Joey Votto’s string of seven straight games with a home run. The NL East leaders now turn to Marcus Stroman, who has pitched MUCH better than his 10-11 team start record would seem to indicate. Look for Stroman to lead the Mets to a win on Sunday. 

Pitching is the primary reason as to why the Mets have been able to hold onto first place for so long. They are giving up just 2.8 runs per game at home this season, which is the lowest average in the league. Only two other teams allow fewer than 3.5 rpg at home and no one else gives up fewer than 3.2. Stroman has pitched great, whether he’s at home or on the road, with a 2.63 ERA and 1.10 WHIP for the year. He’s allowed 3 ER or less in 19 of his 21 starts and when he faced Cincinnati on 7/21, he allowed just one hit in eight scoreless innings. The Mets won that game 7-0. 

The Reds don’t hit as well on the road as they do at home. That’s pretty standard for most teams, but Cincy’s scoring decline when they leave Great American Ballpark is pretty substantial. They go from averaging 5.4 rpg down to 4.4. On the mound, rookie Vladimir Gutierrez is set to get the nod for them on Sunday. He did not fare well against the Mets on 7/19 (gave up six runs) and he has a 5.97 ERA and 1.646 WHIP over his L7 starts. The Mets are the better team, have the better starter and are at home. 8* NY Mets

10* Run Line Cleveland (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking Cleveland +1.5. It certainly feels as if the Indians’ season is on the brink here as the franchise recently announced a name change (Guardians), manager Terry Francona has taken a leave of absence and the team fell victim to a late rally last night against the White Sox. It was a game they never trailed by more than a run until the 8th when a HBP made the final score 6-4. The White Sox haven’t been all that good since the All-Star Break, losing 7 of their last 11. I don’t see the Indians doing any worse than a one-run loss today. 

The White Sox also got a very fortunate Yoan Moncada HR in the second inning off Cleveland starter Mejia. The ball only went over the fence after two Indians’ outfielders collided on what should have been a routine fly out. Cleveland has been very competitive with the AL Central leaders this season, going 6-6 against them in H2H play. The six runs scored by Chicago last night were the most in any of their L9 games. The last time they faced Triston McKenzie, the Indians starter for Saturday, they struck out 10 times in 5 ⅓ innings. McKenzie is also coming off a solid start where he allowed just two runs in six innings. The team won that game 3-2 vs. Tampa Bay. 

Dallas Keuchel will get the baseball tonight for the home team. He has a 5.73 ERA in two previous starts vs. Cleveland this season. He also allowed three home runs in his most recent start, which was a 4-3 loss to Kansas City. Given the White Sox recent offensive woes, I just don’t see them being able to win this game by multiple runs. 10* Run Line Cleveland (+1.5)

8* Over Adashev/Benoit (6:30 ET): This is a three-round fight between flyweights (125 lbs) Zarrukh Adashev (3-3 overall, 0-2 UFC) and Ryan Benoit (10-7, 3-5). As you can tell from those respective records, nether has done much and there isn’t a lot of potential to be seen. But they are fighting on the main card of a show on ESPN. Because of the fact that both fighters are absolutely desperate for a victory Saturday night, I’m expecting a relatively cautious pace. Definitely look for the fight to go Over 2.5 rounds as a decision is likely to be rendered.

Adashev was signed by the UFC last year despite having only four professional bouts under his belt. His UFC career is not off to a rousing start as he was knocked out (in 32 seconds) by Tyson Nam last June and then dropped a unanimous decision to Su Mudaerji in January. Adashev has a solid background in kickboxing, but there’s really not much else to tout here. The fact he did make it the distance last time does give me more confidence in the Over, however. 

Benoit also has some kickboxing on his resume, but he tends to be a methodical fighter and is tough to beat. I know that sounds odd in light of a losing UFC record, but each of the last three defeats for Benoit came via decision. In fact, four of his last five fights have gone to the cards. All five went to round three. It’s been over a year since Benoit dropped a decision to Tim Elliott in his last fight, so I hardly see him coming out and “swinging for the fences.” Again, don’t expect a finish here. 8* Over Adashev/Benoit

8* Under Royals/Blue Jays (3:07 ET): This is a series that Toronto probably should sweep. For a second straight day, they are north of -200 on the money line and they figure to be heavy favorites on Sunday as well. The series got off to a good start on Friday with a 6-4 win. That puts the Jays at 52-48 through their first 100 games, but really they should have a much better record considering their YTD run differential is +99 (only five teams better). They are 4.5 games back of the Wild Card. Meanwhile, Kansas City was an obvious seller at yesterday’s trade deadline. They are 12 games below .500 w/ a -84 YTD run differential. 

Toronto bolstered its starting rotation with a deadline deal, acquiring Jose Berrios from Minnesota. That will help in the run suppression department moving forward and I also don’t see them giving up a ton of runs tonight when they send Alek Manoah to the bump. Through eight starts, Manoah has a 2.90 ERA and his last two at home have seen him not give up a single ER in 13 IP. The Royals came into this series averaging just 3.6 rpg on the road while batting a collective .228. The Under is 8-1-2 in their L11 games. 

Last night marked the first time the Jays got to play in Toronto in almost two years (due to the pandemic). Playing “home games” in Dunedin and Buffalo this year, the team has not been shy about scoring runs, averaging 5.8 per game. That’s the most by any team at home all season. While they were right in line with that average Friday night, I do think that the return to Rogers Centre will lead to a decrease in runs per game moving forward. A benefit here is that they probably won’t have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth (assuming they are ahead). In eight career appearances against Toronto, Royals starter Mike Minor has a 2.59 ERA. He’s coming off B2B quality starts as well. The Under is 9-1 in Toronto’s L10 games vs. a left-handed starter. 8* Under Royals/Blue Jays

6* San Diego (10:10 ET): The Padres are looking to erase the memory of earlier this month when they became the first team this season to lose B2B home games to the Rockies. The road has certainly been an adventure for the Rockies this year as they are an awful 11-39 and averaging just 3.1 runs per game. They are on an 8-37 run when priced between +175 and +250 on the road, as they are here, including 2-17 this season. Given last night’s 3-0 shutout, I see no reason why the Padres won’t win again tonight. 

They might only be in third place in their own division, but San Diego is one of the better teams in baseball. Only six teams have a better YTD run differential. It just happens to be unfortunate that they are in the same division as the Giants and Dodgers. But being in the same division as the Rockies is a benefit. No team in the National League has more home victories this year than San Diego’s 35. They should have won by more than three last night, but had two runners thrown out at the plate (in the same inning!). 

Ryan Weathers will look to replicate the strong outing Joe Musgrove gave the Padres on Thursday. Weathers was injured when he faced Colorado back on July 11th (the final day before the All-Star Break) and has only pitched one time since. That was last Saturday when he threw four shutout innings vs. Miami. He should pitch well here. Jon Gray has a 1-7 TSR on the road for the Rockies, who are 22-38 off a loss this season and 2-10 L12 games at San Diego. 6* San Diego

8* Under Twins/Cardinals (8:15 ET): Minnesota is off a series with Detroit where the teams combined for 53 total runs including a slugfest on Wednesday that more closely resembled the kind of score you’d get from Vikings-Lions (17-14). But once again we’ve got an AL team heading to a NL park, which means the loss of the designated hitter from the lineup. Furthermore, Busch Stadium is a place where only 7.8 runs per game are averaged for the season. I see this one going Under as the Twins also have one of their better starters on the mound tonight. 

That starter would be Jose Berrios, who has a 0.75 WHIP over his L3 starts. His 4.05 ERA over the same timeframe is misleading as both runs allowed in his last start were unearned. Berrios has gone at least six innings in four consecutive starts and never allowed more than four hits. He should feast on a National League lineup, and a pretty weak one at that, which could only muster six runs in two games at an AL park (meaning they got to use a DH) earlier this week. 

Like the Twins, the Cardinals had yesterday off. I was in attendance when they lost 7-2 at Cleveland Wednesday afternoon. The Cards’ playoff hopes are pretty slim now, but here they are facing a last place team that has only 19 road wins all year. Look for Wade LeBlanc, who is 3-0 Under at home, to pitch better than expected tonight. The Under is 23-11-3 in St. Louis’ last 37 home games against a team with a losing record. 8* Under Twins/Cardinals

free play

10* NY Mets (7:10 ET): I’m banking on a strong Mets debut from Carlos Carrasco here. Acquired on January 7th from Cleveland (as part of the Francisco Lindor trade), Carrasco has yet to pitch at the big-league level in 2021 after tearing his hamstring in Spring Training. He’s made three rehab starts, though those only lasted a total of 6 ⅔ innings. Keep in mind that Carrasco was expected to be the Mets #2 starter this year (behind Jacob deGrom). He’s 4-0 with a 3.43 ERA lifetime vs. Cincinnati, a team that is not nearly as strong at the plate on the road as they are at home. I like the Mets big here. 

Despite multiple injuries to its starting rotation, deGrom and Carrasco chief among them, the Mets have led the NL East for the last 83 days and are allowing only 2.7 runs per game at home this year. Visiting teams have hit just .202 at Citi Field. With Carrasco set to return and Rich Hill acquired in a trade yesterday, the Mets’ rotation should continue to excel down the stretch. As I alluded to above, the Reds only average 4.3 rpg on the road, which is a full run less than what they score at home. They did just have a productive series at Wrigley Field, scoring five or more runs in all four games. But it’ll be a big change here as they face a much better Mets’ pitching staff. 

The Mets did lose 6-3 to the Braves yesterday. However, that was a game where they had 12 hits and should have scored more. They went 1 for 8 with RISP. I expect better hitting tonight against Sonny Gray, who was tagged for eight runs his last time out and now has a 9.00 ERA and 1.867 WHIP his L3 starts. The Reds’ bullpen also remains a big question mark. Therefore, I’m calling for an end to a couple of streaks today - the Reds’ three-game win streak and Joey Votto’s six-game streak with a home run. 10* NY Mets

7* Mexico (10:00 ET): Reigning champs Mexico are in their seventh straight Gold Cup semifinals and only seem to be getting stronger as this tournament wears on. Having yet to concede a single goal, they are off a dominant 3-0 win over Honduras. That was Honduras’ worst loss - in any competition - since 2019. El Tri scored three times in the opening 40 minutes, connecting on half of its shot attempts. Impressive as that was, this is the first time since Mexico has opened a Gold Cup with four successive clean sheets.

Our neighbors to the north (I’m speaking as an American here) are far less accustomed to this stage. This will be only the fourth all-time semifinal appearance at a Gold Cup for Canada, who is coming off an impressive 2-0 win over Costa Rica. Some of the sloppiness that we saw from them in the group stage was not present in the quarterfinal victory. Unlike Mexico, Canada has lost a match in this tournament, 1-0 to the United States which decided Group B.

The problem for Canada here is that Mexico is a “hill” they have been unable to climb in the past. They have not defeated El Tri in over 21 years. What’s remarkable about Canada having scored 10 goals in this tournament is the fact that they came in without their two primarily goal scorers. But here is where that catches up with them. Not only has Mexico yet to concede a single time here in the Gold Cup, they are working on a streak of seven consecutive clean sheets. In their last five Gold Cup meetings, Mexico has outscored Canada 17-4. Look for a return trip to the Finals to be booked inside 90 minutes + stoppage time. 7* Mexico

10* Over Orioles/Tigers (7:05 ET): We’ve got two “also-rans” from the American League beginning a four-game series tonight in the Motor City. The hosts are coming off a somewhat insane 17-14 win in Minnesota yesterday afternoon, a score you’d expect from Lions-Vikings, not Tigers-Twins. All three games in that series went Over with yesterday obviously being the highest scoring of the bunch. (The first two games saw the teams exchange 6-5 victories). The Tigers are now 9-4 since the All-Star Break.

Baltimore is in last place in the AL East and that is where they’ll be for the rest of the year. Their 2021 fate was sealed pretty early in the season. The Orioles are 30 games below .500 and have been outscored by 133 runs, but like the Tigers they are coming off a win here as they defeated Miami 8-7 on Wednesday. That matched the O’s highest scoring effort of the second half. They scored three times over the final two innings and are now actually 4-1 the L5 games overall. 

The thing to watch today is how long Tigers’ starter Casey Mize is asked to go. The team had been restricting his innings, but skipper AJ Hinch made a mistake by letting him come out for the fifth in his last outing. After tossing four shutout innings, Mize then allowed four runs in the fifth. Regardless of how long he goes tonight, we know that Detroit’s bullpen (5.04 ERA) isn’t good. Neither is Baltimore pitching. Alexander Wells will be making just his second career big league start in this one after allowing a pair of home runs in his debut. Runs should be plentiful tonight. 10* Over Orioles/Tigers

10* Over Rockies/Angels (9:38 ET): Throughout their history, the Rockies have been defined by an extreme home vs. road dichotomy. Playing their home games in the thin air of Denver, it’s rather easy to understand. But this year, things have been taken to the extreme as they are 11-37 in road games. They average just 3.0 rpg outside of Coors Field while batting a collective .209. But this series with the Angels figured to be different. Not only is it an AL park where they can benefit from the use of a designated hitter, but the Halos surrender 5.1 runs here at home. I’m on the Over in this one. 

They scored just two runs on Monday, but last night saw the Rockies “bust loose” for 12 in a rare win away from home. They had 16 hits. Tonight they’ll face Andrew Heaney, who is 13-3 Over in all starts for the Angels this season. While Heaney pitched well in Minnesota last Thursday, that was after he went 1-4 with an 8.79 ERA his previous five starts.

On the flip side, the Angels average 5.5 rpg at home, which is one of the highest averages in baseball. So they should do better at the plate than they did last night. It helps to face Chi Chi Gonzalez. The Over is 10-3 in Gonzalez’s last 13 starts and there have been four times where he allowed 6+ runs. He “only” allowed four his last time out, but that was in just five innings and the game ended up being 9-6 when it was all said and done (Rockies won). Including both games of this series, the Over is 12-2-2 the L16 times the Halos have been favored in Interleague play. 10* Over Rockies/Angels

10* Houston (10:10 ET): Seattle HAS to be the luckiest team of all-time. Or at least in recent memory. They are certainly the luckiest team in all of MLB in 2021 as they’ve managed to go 55-46 despite having a -49 run differential. Their win expectancy - based on said run differential - is only 45. The 10-game difference between their actual and expected number of wins is by far the largest of any team this year. Key to them overachieving is a somewhat preposterous 23-8 record in one-run games (had three of those in the last series) and a 9-1 record in extra innings. But what happened last night may have been the most preposterous thing yet! 

Last night’s game saw Houston score six times in the top of the first and take a 7-0 lead into the bottom of the fourth. That’s when things changed dramatically as Seattle put together B2B three-run innings. It was still 8-7 in favor of the Astros heading into the bottom of the eighth, which is when “disaster struck” (I was on the Astros, in case you couldn’t tell) as Dylan Moore hit a grand slam to give the home team a win. It was the third straight day the Mariners came from behind to win. Two of those have come in the final time up to bat.

I’m aware that the M’s have a 13-5 record with Tuesday starter Chris Flexen on the bump. But they are facing my #1 rated team in the American League, who has outscored its opponents by 141 runs this year. The AL West race should not be close and it’s a sham that Seattle is even in Wild Card contention. The Astros will counter Flexen with Lance McCullers Jr, who has allowed three runs or less in all but one of his 16 starts this season. McCullers has a lower ERA and WHIP compared to Flexen, despite having a worse record. The 11-run effort yesterday is not in any way indicative of the Mariners’ offense. At home, they are hitting just .205 and have a .281 OBP, both MLB worsts. Houston is MLB’s highest scoring team on the road and overall. They are on a 29-8 run vs Seattle. I am a BIG believer in the Astros tonight. 10* Houston

8* San Diego (10:10 ET): Oakland hasn’t been hitting the ball well of late (.222 BA L7 games) and now faces the disadvantage of heading to a NL park where they won’t be able to use a DH. Even worse is that the NL park they head to is Petco Park where the host Padres are very stingy, giving up only 3.6 runs per game. The A’s just dropped three straight one-run decisions over the weekend (to Seattle), really tightening up the Wild Card race in the AL. San Diego has a much more comfortable lead in the NL WC race (six games) and despite being third in their own division, I have them as a Top 5 team in all of MLB. 

The Padres are just 5-4 since the All-Star Break, however all of those games were played on the road. A 9-3 loss at Miami on Sunday marked the 1st time since the Break that they lost by more than one run. Now they finally get to return home where their 33 wins are the most among NL clubs. They are also 8-1 in Interleague Play this season. Chris Paddack will toe the rubber in tonight’s series opener. Save for one bad effort vs Washington on July 7th, Paddack has been impressive in 2021. Especially his last time out when he shut the Braves out over five innings and gave up just three hits and no walks. 

Oakland will give the baseball to James Kaprielian, who also didn’t allow a run in his last start. But that was at home. The road has been less kind to Kaprielian so far as his ERA is 4.00 compared to 1.13 at home. Very early in the season, the A’s put together a 13-game win streak. Take that away and they would have a below .500 record.  San Diego has been much more consistent this year and has a big-time edge getting this series at home. The A’s are 20-42 L62 IL road games vs. teams with a winning record. The Padres have won nine straight over teams that have winning records. 8* San Diego

7* Houston (10:10 ET): Seattle is a team I flat out do not believe in. At 54-46, they are just 1.5 games off the pace in the AL Wild Card race. But this is a team that’s been outscored by 52 runs this season. That’s a comparable differential to the Tigers, who are just 47-54 on the year! In fact, with a run differential of -52, the Mariners’ win expectancy is 44! The 10-game gap between actual and expected wins is by far the largest of any team in baseball (no other team has outperformed expectations by more than four wins!). They are 23-8 in one-run games, including three straight wins by that exact margin. Ridiculous! 

Houston, who leads the AL West, is a team I very much believe in. I’ve got the Astros rated as the #1 team in the American League right now and #2 overall in MLB (Dodgers are #1). They’ve got the record to back it up at 61-39 and I see them coasting to a division title. The weekend saw the ‘Stros sweep a three-game series against the last place Rangers and they’ve won five of six overall. I’m not concerned about them hitting the road as they average 5.6 runs per game away from home, which is #1 in MLB. Seattle is averaging only 3.8 rpg at home while batting a paltry .203. The M’s are 30th in team batting average and OBP. 

Darren McCaughen, a rookie, will be making his first career big league start today for the Mariners. Injuries have decimated their starting rotation, which is the only reason he’s being called upon in this spot. It’s a very tough spot facing the #1 offensive team in baseball. Luis Garcia, facing the worst ranked offense in baseball, should do well in this start for Houston. Garcia shut Cleveland out for six innings in his most recent start, which lasted six innings. There have been only two times in 16 starts where Garcia has allowed more than 3 ER. I like the Astros big here. 7* Houston

10* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): Cincinnati missed out on a chance to sweep St. Louis again as they lost 10-6 on Sunday. Now they are set to face another divisional foe that they previously swept, that being the Cubs. It was Fourth of July weekend that the Reds won three one-run games over the Cubs at Great American Ballpark (2-1, 3-2 and 3-2). For the Cubs, that was part of an awful 11-game win streak that essentially took them out of the race in the NL Central. They’ve played better recently though and now get the Reds at Wrigley where they’re a strong 30-18 on the season. I expect the Cubs to gain a measure of revenge today.

The Over was a winner for me yesterday when the Reds hosted the Cardinals. That ended up being a 10-6 loss for Cincy as they fell victim to a seven-run inning (4th) and never really recovered. Pitching has been an issue for this team all season and ultimately will be the reason this club does NOT make the postseason. The only National League team to have allowed more runs than the Reds is Arizona and everyone knows how bad the D’backs are. 

Wade Miley will start Monday’s game for Cincy. He’s been their best starter as he tossed a no-hitter back on May 7th and has a 5-0 TSR his L5 starts. But he was fortunate to allow only two runs the last time he faced the Cubs as he also gave up 10 hits. Miley’s career ERA at Wrigley is 4.88. Kyle Hendricks goes for the Cubs. He’s 12-4 this year and has allowed 3 ER or less in 12 of his L13 starts, going at least six innings every time out. With Hendricks, the Cubs have the edge on the mound in this series opener. The Reds have dropped six of nine since the All-Star Break - all at home. 10* Chi Cubs

10* Under Jamaica/USA (9:30 ET): The quarterfinals of this year’s CONCACAF Gold Cup wrap up Sunday night in Dallas with the United States playing host to Jamaica. The U.S. won Group B with a perfect 3-0 record and they conceded only one time. The fact they scored eight goals, tied for second most among all sides in the group stage, is a little misleading though. Six of those eight goals came in a thrashing of overmatched Martinique. The other two fixtures were both 1-0 wins (over Canada and Haiti). The general consensus was that the Americans were a bit underwhelming in the group stage.

Jamaica got here by finishing second in Group C. They conceded only two times in their three matches and like the US went into the final fixture knowing they did not need points to qualify for the quarterfinals. But unlike the Americans, who won 1-0 over Canada, Jamaica lost that final fixture - 1-0 to Costa Rica. Before that it was a 2-1 win over Guadeloupe and a 2-0 win over Suriname. However, achieving victory here figures to be a lot more challenging as the Reggae Boyz have beaten the Americans only once in six tries at the Gold Cup, including a 2-1 loss in the 2017 Final and a 3-1 loss in the 2019 semis. 

I think this matchup will be much lower-scoring than those two previous Gold Cup tussles. It remains to be seen if the Americans were simply being passive against Canada as they took only six shots in 90 minutes with only one of those being on target. Jamaica did control the possession against Costa Rica, allowing only five shots in the match. The Reggae Boyz are unbeaten in their last three Gold Cup quarterfinals, but so is the U.S., who hasn’t even conceded a single goal in this round in any of those three wins. All it may take to win here is one goal. 10* Under Jamaica/USA

10* Over Cardinals/Reds (1:10 ET): Cincinnati can make it seven in a row over St. Louis with a win on Sunday. They’ve captured the first two games of this series by scores of 6-5 and 5-3. This comes on the heels of winning all four games at Busch Stadium last month. The results of the L2 days have to be terribly disappointing for a Cardinals team that had won five of six going into this series, which had them back over .500. Cincy may have the “momentum,” but I feel the “safest” bet for Sunday’s finale - due to the pitching matchup and how most Reds’ home games have gone this season - is to take the Over.

Reds’ home games have averaged 11.0 runs this season. That’s the most for any team - even more than Colorado at Coors Field and Toronto (who has played at Spring Training/minor league facilities). It’s a combination of a strong offense (5.4 rpg) and shaky pitching (5.6 rpg allowed). The Reds got a better than expected start from Luis Castillo on Saturday, but I do NOT expect that to be the case today with Sonny Gray. He was really roughed up by St. Louis back on April 23rd when he gave up five runs on six hits. He lasted only 3 ⅔ innings. It’s not like that was some aberration either. Last time out, Gray again gave up five runs on six hits (this time in 4 ⅔ innings) to Milwaukee. 

The Cardinals aren’t in much better shape on the mound this afternoon as they’ll send out Johan Oviedo, who has a horrifying 0-10 team start record vs the NL Central in his career. It’s not as if he’s been unlucky either as his ERA in those 10 starts is 5.21. He’s averaged less than five innings per start as well. Oviedo is also winless this year (against everybody!) with an 0-5 record in 12 starts. He has a 5.92 ERA and 1.973 WHIP on the road. Neither bullpen is all that good either. 10* Over Cardinals/Reds

8* Boston (1:10 ET): While the Red Sox may not necessarily be the best team in the AL East (Tampa Bay is), I remain far more skeptical of the Yankees being able to stay in this race due to a YTD run differential that is far inferior to the other three teams they are competing against. Boston, Tampa Bay and Toronto are all +67 or better in that department. The Yankees are just +6. While they did pull off a thrilling comeback on Saturday, all four runs scored by the Yanks came in the eighth inning. The Red Sox are still 9-3 against them this season and won the first two games of the series. I think they will win this series. 

It certainly appeared that Boston was well on its way to a fifth straight victory when they took a 3-0 lead into the top of the 8th yesterday. But it was not to be. Martin Perez will start on Sunday, hoping to avoid a second straight loss to the Yanks and third straight loss overall. He took the loss last Sunday at Yankees Stadium after giving up three runs in four innings. But there was a stretch this season when Boston went 8-2 in Perez's starts. That was before the B2B losses. It was during that stretch that Perez led the team to a 5-3 win over the Yankees. All three runs that he allowed were unearned in that one. 

The Yankees will go with Domingo German, who has a 4.58 ERA in nine previous appearances vs. Boston. German has not lasted longer than 4 ⅓ innings in any of his last five starts. One would have to go all the way back to May 20th to find the last time he went a full six innings. German took the “L” opposite Perez in the aforementioned 5-3 game from last month. The Yankees are a weak offensive club while Boston is #3 in MLB in runs scored. Throw in the respective run differentials and the fact the Red Sox have owned the season series and a bounce back from Saturday looks rather certain. 8* Boston

7* Cory Sandhagen (9:40 ET): This is your main event for UFC on ESPN 27. It’s scheduled for five rounds in the Bantamweight Division (135 lbs) between Cory Sandhagen (14-2 overall, 7-1 in UFC) and the returning TJ Dillashaw (16-4 overall, 12-4 in UFC). What Dillashaw is “returning” from is a 30 month suspension for drug use. His last fight came all the way back in January 2019, that being the disastrous 32 second KO loss to Henry Cejudo, which was for the Flyweight Title. The Bantamweight division now is a lot stronger than when Dillashaw was last a part of it. So expect to see Sandhagen win this one. 

Sandhagen’s only loss in the UFC came to current Bantamweight Champ Aljamain Sterling. That was back in June of last year. He subsequently bounced back with a pair of impressive victories, the most recent being the highlight-reel KO of Frankie Edgar back in February. It took all of 28 seconds for “The Sandman” to end that one. That was on the heels of a 2nd round TKO of Marlon Moraes last October. Sandhagen has defeated a lot of “older” bantamweights and the 35-year old Dillashaw would be the most impressive victim yet. 

Dillashaw’s drug suspension looms large over this fight as it was one of the more severe punishments we’ve seen for a fighter. That and the fact he was destroyed by Cejudo the last time we saw him has to make you wonder if he’s approaching “the end of the line.”  Meanwhile, a win here and Sandhagen would almost certainly earn a title shot and rematch with Sterling. Almost all of Dillashaw’s wins have come against fighters that are now afterthoughts in this division. Sandhagen is top 10 all-time in the UFC in significant strikes landed per minute. This feels like a “passing of the torch.” 7* Cory Sandhagen

10* Qatar (7:30 ET): Qatar made quite the statement in winning Group D. The 2022 World Cup hosts claimed two victories and a draw, plus they finished as the highest scoring side in group play with nine goals scored. They are now unbeaten across their last 10 matches with the last loss coming in a friendly against South Korea back in November. It wasn’t just goal scoring where Qatar showed its prowess either; they’ve kept two consecutive clean sheets where they allowed just two shots on goal! 

El Salvador finished second in Group A as they knew they were already through to the quarterfinals when they lost to Mexico 1-0. Though they had their fair share of goalscoring opportunities in that final match of the group stage - and dominated possession - La Selecta was actually lucky they weren’t beaten worse than 1-0 as Mexico blew its own share of opportunities. They can’t be nearly as careless with the football if they want to win here against a team that has trailed only three times in its last 12 matches. 

Qatar is unbeaten in its last five against CONCACAF sides and last time out held Honduras w/o a shot for the entirety of the match. That’s very impressive. Don’t forget they won the Asian Cup two years ago and didn’t even concede a goal until the Final of that tournament. Their lone blemish here in the Gold Cup was the opening match draw vs. Panama where three different times they blew a one-goal advantage. Since then, they’ve allowed nothing and scored six goals. El Salvador has never made it past the quarterfinals in the Gold Cup and isn’t favored to do so here. Right before this tournament began, Qatar won a friendly 1-0 and this one figures to be more lopsided than that. 10* Qatar

9* Under Rangers/Astros (7:10 ET): Texas has been just dreadful since the All-Star Break, losing all eight of its games by a combined score of 71-13! Going back to BEFORE the break, they’ve lost 10 in a row. It was more of the same last night as they fell to the Astros 7-3 in the series opener. Houston scored all seven of its runs in two innings, so there was some “cluster luck” involved. But considering the fact the Rangers absolutely stink on the road (13-38 this year!) and the Astros are now north of -200 on the ML, this should be another easy win for the home team. 

But as good as the AL West leaders are (#2 in my power ratings), I’m not looking to bet them on the ML today. It’s tempting, but the price is just too high. I think the Under is a much better value here as you know the Rangers aren’t going to score many runs and the Astros aren’t likely to score as many as they did last night. The likelihood that the home team won’t have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth (assuming they are ahead) would also be beneficial to an Under play as the better team will only come up to bat eight times. 

Texas has its best starter on the mound Saturday in Kyle Gibson. Gibson has a 2.86 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in 18 starts. While he’s been better in Arlington (compared to on the road), you can generally count on a quality start from him. Now he has struggled in B2B starts, especially the last one, but he also allowed 2 ER or less in 15 of his first 17 starts this season. That includes 3 for 3 in quality starts vs. the Astros (1.89 ERA in 19 IP). I think we should also see Houston’s Framber Valdez pitch better than he has recently. Valdez has allowed 3 ER or less in 8 of his 10 starts this season. 9* Under Rangers/Astros

10* Under White Sox/Brewers (7:10 ET): This should be a good old fashioned “pitchers duel” on Saturday as we’ve got Carlos Rodon set to face Corbin Burnes. Rodon comes in sporting an 8-3 record (11-5 TSR) with a 2.14 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Burnes is 5-4 (8-8 TSR), but that record completely undersells just how well he has pitched in 2021 as he has a 2.06 ERA and 0.886 WHIP. Lately, Burnes has been on the top of his game by allowing just three runs in his L4 starts, which have spanned 27 ⅓ innings. Last time out, he threw 8 1/3 scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts, a game the Brew Crew won 8-0. 

The White Sox average 5.3 runs per game on the road, but in this series they must deal with the same disadvantage that every AL team faces when they hit the road in Interleague Play -- no designated hitter in the lineup. Without the DH, they were held to just one run in last night’s series opener and it didn’t come until the eighth inning. They never sent more than five men to the plate in any inning. Four times they were three up, three down. It’s difficult to envision them doing much tonight against a starting pitcher that has an incredible 140-16 KW rate on the season. 

Milwaukee is not a great offensive team by any stretch. They are actually dead last among NL teams in batting average. At home, that average dips to .218. The seven runs they scored last night is a little misleading as they had one big six-run inning (thanks to a grand slam). Just like Burnes, Rodon is coming off an exemplary performance. He tossed seven shutout innings of one-hit ball on Sunday, with 10 strikeouts, and that was against the Astros (#1 team in rpg!). It was the 12th time (in 16 starts) this season that Rodon allowed 1 ER or less. He is on a streak of 10 straight starts with 8+ strikeouts, which is a club record. 10* Under White Sox/Brewers

analysis soon

8* Kansas City (8:10 ET): This is a revenge game for the Royals, who were swept here at home by Detroit last month. The Tigers come into this series playing their best ball of the season as they are 7-0 since the All-Star Break. But they are still four games below .500. That’s a lot better than where the Royals are at (16 games below .500), but - despite what happened last month - I remain skeptical of the Tigers’ ability to get the job done on the road, where they are 19-29 this season (and 55-102 the L3 seasons!) It’s telling that KC is the money line favorite for this series opener. 

The Royals do come into this game on a two-game win streak. Those wins came in Milwaukee as +170 and +140 underdogs, which is impressive. The Brewers are the first place team in the NL Central and top five in all of MLB in fewest runs allowed. So the fact KC was able to score 11 times in two games certainly deserves a “tip of the cap.” The Tigers give up 5.5 rpg on the road and the entirety of their current seven-game win streak has come at home. The last time they hit the road, they were swept in Minnesota. 

A nice edge for the Royals coming into today’s game is that they had Thursday off. They are 9-5 this season when playing with a day off. Meanwhile, the Tigers had to hold off the Rangers in a game where they got seven runs on just seven hits. I realize today’s starting pitching matchup seems to favor Detroit, but the Royals are 4-0 at home this season when Kris Bubic starts. The Tigers aren’t a great team by any means and thus this win streak of theirs is due to end sooner rather than later. Tonight sounds about right. 8* Kansas City

8* Under Blue Jays/Mets (7:10 ET): Toronto is a team that ought to have a better record. They’ve outscored opponents by 83 runs this season, which is the top differential in the AL East. Yet here they sit at just 48-44 on the year and are in fourth place. The second half started well enough as they swept Texas, including a pair of shutouts in a doubleheader on Sunday (1st time they’d done that in franchise history). But their residency in Buffalo ended poorly as they were beaten twice by Boston this week, 13-4 and 7-4. Now they are set to take on another first place team, that being the Mets.

Like Toronto, the Mets were idle yesterday. They are coming off a 7-0 shutout of the Reds on Wednesday afternoon. The Mets’ lead in the NL East is currently at four games over both Philadelphia & Atlanta. What I find most intriguing about handicapping this ballclub is that they are #2 in all of MLB in fewest runs allowed. But they have also scored the second fewest number of runs in all of baseball. On average, no team’s games are lower scoring than are the Mets (7.7 rpg). Tonight they are facing an American League club forced to play without the DH. So another low-scoring game would seem to be in the cards. 

The Blue Jays have thrived in Interleague Play this season, going 13-2. That’s the best such record in all of baseball. They’re allowing just 3.6 rpg vs. NL foes. Steven Matz will be the starter on Friday and he’s coming off five shutout innings vs. Texas last weekend. But of course, Toronto’s scoring goes way down when they hit the road and now they don’t even have a DH. Mets’ starter Tylor Megill also didn’t allow a run in his most recent start (went six innings) and visiting teams here at Citi Field are hitting only .190 for the year and scoring 2.5 rpg. Take the Under in this one. 8* Under Blue Jays/Mets

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Despite the loss of Ronald Acuna Jr (out for the rest of the season), Atlanta is not throwing in the towel in the NL East. Winners of this division each of the last three seasons, the Braves have the division’s best run differential (+30) and sit just four games back of the first place Mets. They are tied with the Phillies, who they just beat 7-2 on Thursday. Clearly, the deciding factor in last night’s game was a Darby Swanson grand slam in the third inning. The teams actually finished with the same number of hits (7). The Phillies have now lost three in a row after starting July on a 10-4 run. 

I expect the Phils to bounce back on Friday though, mainly because they’ll have Zack Wheeler on the mound. Wheeler has easily been the team’s most consistent starter in 2021 w/ a 2.43 ERA and 0.995 WHIP. Now he has allowed a total of 11 runs in his last two starts. But prior to that, he’d allowed 3 ER or less in 15 of 17 starts. Wheeler has allowed only 4 HR’s over the previous three months, so the Acuna-less Braves offense won’t be having nearly the same success they did yesterday. For the season, Atlanta averages only 4.0 runs per game on the road compared to 5.3 at home. 

Over the last three games, Philly is a hideous 5 of 32 with RISP. That’s got to improve. Even with the loss y’day, the team is still 27-18 at home this season. They are one of ten teams with a win percentage of .600 or better at home. The hitting should get back on track today against Max Fried, who is not having the same kind of season Wheeler is. Fried’s first start after the All Star Break was impressive (seven shutout innings), but that was at home. On the road, he has a 6.43 ERA and 1.714 WHIP. The Phillies have had only one losing streak of more than three games all season (it was four) and that was in mid-May. 10* Philadelphia

10* Oakland (10:10 ET): If you’re a regular client, then you know that Seattle is a team I just do not believe in. While only 3.5 games off the pace for the Wild Card in the American League, the Mariners’ 51-45 WL record is really as phony as it gets. They’ve been outscored by 52 runs this season, which would give them a “win expectancy” of 42. The nine-game difference between actual and “expected” wins is - by far - the largest in all of MLB right now. They’ve been propped up not only by a 20-8 record in one-run games, but a 9-1 record in extra innings. I believe this team is going to regress badly over the next couple months. 

The situation for Oakland here is good. They had Wednesday off. Seattle did not as they wrapped up a two-game series in Colorado with a 6-3 loss. The A’s have won their L2 games, both against the Angels. It was a 6-0 win on Tuesday, good news because they are 5-1 this season coming off a shutout win. Today they hand the ball to Sean Manaea, who threw a CG shutout here in Seattle back on June 2nd (allowed just four hits). Manaea has a 12-7 TSR this year and 3.20 ERA on the road. 

The Mariners are one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. They are dead last in team batting average and OBP plus 28th in OPS. At home, their BA drops to .203! How they have managed to go 29-20 at home with that kind of average is mind-boggling. I know today’s starter Chris Flexen has pitched pretty well at home this year, but he did not fare well here against the A’s back on June 2nd (same game Manaea tossed the CG shutout) as he allowed five runs. Oakland is 12-3 as a road favorite of -125 to -175 and I really like them in this matchup. 10* Oakland

8* Run Line Cleveland (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line selection where I am taking the Indians +1.5. They have revenge for a prior three-game sweep, which was in Tampa Bay two weeks ago. Since being swept in Tropicana Field, things have gotten better with the Tribe winning six of nine including a sweep of the Royals in their lone home series. They also beat the Astros yesterday 5-4. Two of the Indians’ last three losses have been by one run. I really like the RL in this series opener. 

The Rays, who have also won six of their last nine games, can usually count on solid starting pitching. But I don’t believe that will be the case here tonight as they send Luis Patino to the bump. Patino will be making just his fifth start of 2021 here and second since May. He was recalled from Triple-A Durham despite giving up seven runs in his last start here in the big leagues. That was 7/2 vs. Toronto, a game the Rays lost 11-1. It should be noted they were also close to losing yesterday (at home vs. Baltimore) before a two-run rally in the bottom of the ninth. They were down to their last out. 

So you’ve got a situation where both teams are coming off one-run victories (same exact score too!). Tampa Bay has been in 27 one-run games this year while Cleveland has been in 28. The only other AL team with more one-run decisions this year is Oakland (30). Cal Quantrill led a one-run win (3-2) for the Indians in his last start as he gave up only one run in five innings. It was his second consecutive victory. The Rays have lost four in a row as road favorites and I don’t see the home team doing any worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Cleveland

8* Under Rangers/Tigers (1:10 ET): Suffice to say, we can probably count on the Rangers not scoring many runs Thursday afternoon. This team is in a terrible way right now as they’ve dropped all six of its games since the All-Star Break and eight straight overall. The last three losses have come here in Detroit where the Tigers have won six in a row since the break. Five of those six wins have seen the Tigers allow two runs or less. That includes all three games in this series. Meanwhile, Texas has scored only six runs in its last seven games. I don’t trust the Tigers’ offense either, so Under is the obvious call here. 

The Under has cashed in nearly 62% of Tigers’ home games this season. They held the Rangers to just five hits last night in what was a 4-2 victory. Believe it or not, that was their NINTH straight game with six or fewer hits. This team just can’t hit. They’ve fallen to 27th in batting average, 29th in OBP, 28th in slugging and 29th in OPS. I can’t sell Tyler Alexander, the Tigers’ starter for Thursday, as being anything special. But right now, the Rangers are seemingly a great matchup for ANY starting pitcher. 

The key here is Mike Foltynewicz giving SOMETHING resembling a decent start for Texas. It has been a dreadful season for Foltynewicz and his last start was a low-point. But he’d been fairly decent in his four previous starts. Three of them were quality, meaning he made it at least six innings while also allowing 3 ER or less. The key will be limiting home runs, which admittedly has been a problem. All four of Detroit’s runs yesterday came off home runs. But I think Foltynewicz will surprise and keep the ball in the park. 8* Under Rangers/Tigers

7* Toronto (7:07 ET): Mother nature did not cooperate yesterday as the Red Sox and Blue Jays were rained out. That game will be made up as part of a doubleheader on August 7th -- in Toronto. In case you hadn’t heard, the Jays have been cleared to return “North of the Border.” Because of COVID-19 restrictions, they haven’t played a game at Rogers Centre since 2019. Tonight is the final game in Buffalo and the Jays could really use a win seeing as they trail Boston by seven games in the AL East and lost to them 13-4 on Monday. 

Toronto has been forced to play its “home games” in both Dunedin, FL and here in Buffalo this season. Scoring runs - in either of these two parks - has generally not been an issue for them. In fact, they lead all of MLB in runs per game at home with 5.9! I think they’re going to produce here against Garrett Richards, who was originally slated to start yday’s game. Richards has a 5.40 ERA in three previous starts vs. the Blue Jays this season. He also has a 7.10 ERA and 2.052 WHIP his L7 starts overall. 

Boston reshuffled its lineup for the season opener and that certainly worked as they scored eight runs in the first inning en route to a huge win. But today they face Robbie Ray, who has been one of Toronto’s most consistent starters. Ray has a 2.93 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in all starts this season and those numbers are even better over his L7 trips to the mound. Ray beat Boston (at Fenway Park) last month, holding them to three runs in six innings. He struck out 10. The Jays wound up winning that game 18-4! 7* Toronto

10* Over Marlins/Nationals (7:05 ET): This series has gone poorly for the last place Marlins. They lost 18-1 on Monday. Things weren’t nearly as rough last night, but they still lost 6-3. The Fish are now 15 games below .500 (40-55), though they have a reasonable YTD run differential (-4). They are 5.5 games back of the Nats, who have now won three in a row after suffering through a six-game losing streak that straddled the All-Star Break. The Over is 10-2 their last 12 games, including 5-0 the L5 and this one should go Over as well. 

The pitching matchup looks pretty dreadful here. Starting for Miami will be Jordan Holloway. He’s made only three starts, but they haven’t gone well nor have they lasted very long. Holloway has gone a total of 9 ⅔ innings in those three starts and has allowed 11 runs. Starting here for Washington will be Erick Fedde. He’s been beat up pretty good in three of his last four starts. The most recent was the worst of the bunch as Fedde was charged with six runs after going just 1 ⅓ IP. 

That last Fedde start was the infamous 24-8 loss to San Diego. Earlier, I mentioned the six-game losing streak for the Nats. There were three times during that streak that they allowed 10+ runs. Now they’ve scored 32 of their own in the L3 games. Miami hasn’t done much scoring at all during a current five-game losing streak, but is probably “due” here. Holloway is only starting because Sandy Alcantara was placed on the bereavement list. The respective offenses should rule the day here. 10* Over Marlins/Nationals

8* Over Mets/Reds (12:35 ET): Yesterday was the first time since the All-Star Break that Cincinnati won. They did so by beating the Mets 4-3. That was definitely a departure from the previous four games in which they were outscored 41-21. They got a strong effort from starter Wade Miley, who gave up just one run in 6 ⅓ innings. But Miley obviously won’t be pitching against today. Instead, the Reds will send Jeff Hoffman to the mound. Eight of his nine starts have gone Over and he has a 2.033 WHIP in the L3.

The Mets had scored 29 runs in the three games previous to last night’s loss, including a 15-11 win here in the series opener. The Mets’ record since the Break is just 2-3 as they dropped two of three in Pittsburgh and have split two games here. This is far from the National League’s best offensive team, but they should get to Hoffman, who has control issues and often doesn’t last very long. The Reds’ bullpen is also very bad, especially at home where its ERA is 6.09 and blown half its save opportunities. 

Totals in this series have been high as they should be. Reds’ games, on average, are among the highest scoring in the league. They average 5.5 rpg themselves while also giving up 5.6. Mets’ games aren’t typically that high scoring, but it’s notable the number of runs per game they allow on the road jumps up to 5.0. Wednesday starter Marcus Stroman hasn’t lasted longer than five innings in any of his last five starts. The Mets’ bullpen, similar to Cincinnati’s, isn’t very good. They have a 5.04 ERA on the road. You saw the 15-11 score from Monday and while this game may not be nearly as high-scoring, it will go Over. 8* Over Mets/Reds

10* Under Suns/Bucks (9:05 ET): The Bucks have valiantly fought back from an 0-2 series deficit to come within one win of their first NBA Championship since 1971. That ‘71 Finals victory happens to be the franchise’s lone NBA Championship. I’ve got to say that I’m happy to see them in this position as they were my call for both Games 4 & 5. Each time they battled back from a significant deficit. It was a nine-point 4Q deficit that they faced in Game 4. The deficit was much larger in Game 5 (16 pts), but that came early and a big 2Q resulted in them leading most of the way. Of course, that was my 10* Game of the Year. 

With the Bucks having come from behind to win each of the last two games, I’m a little skeptical of laying the points here. Something I said going into Game 5 was that it was pretty surprising Milwaukee won Game 4 considering they were outshot 51.3 to 40.2 percent. I didn’t think the Suns would have such a large edge in FG% again and that proved to be the case even though they actually shot better overall (55.2%) and were 13 of 19 from three-point range. But Milwaukee shot 57.5% overall and was 50% (14 of 28) from three-point range! 

I can’t possibly see either team matching those kinds of percentages here in Game 6. Thus, I’m taking the Under. This is the highest O/U line we’ve seen so far for this series, which does make sense coming off the highest scoring game of the series. But the teams absolutely will NOT combine to go 27 of 47 from behind the arc again. In Game 4, they were 14 of 52. And shooting a combined 56% overall from the field again is totally out of the question. Outside of Devin Booker, the rest of the Suns have scored just 140 points total in the L2 games. The number of PPG allowed by both teams in this postseason does not exceed 105.5. 10* Under Suns/Bucks

7* Suriname (7:00 ET): Group C action wraps up on Tuesday. Guadeloupe and Suriname have already been officially eliminated from reaching the knockout stage of the tournament, so there’s nothing but pride on the line here. Suriname has lost 2-0 to Jamaica and 2-1 to Costa Rica. Guadeloupe has lost 3-1 to Costa Rica and 2-1 to Jamaica. While both sides have the same goal differential (-3) through the first two matches and blew leads on Friday, I believe Suriname has pretty clearly been the better looking side so far. I’ll go with them to record their first ever Gold Cup victory on Tuesday.

Seeing as this is their first ever appearance at a Gold Cup, the effort from Suriname has been impressive thus far. They gave Costa Rica all it could handle on Friday by opening up the scoring in the 52nd minute. Unfortunately for them, they led for just six minutes. They conceded the equalizer and go-ahead goal within a minute of each other. Still, as they did in the opener vs. Jamaica, Suriname won the possession battle vs. Costa Rica. They also have outshot each of the first two opponents. 

Guadeloupe’s early 1-0 lead on Jamaica seemed more fortuitous though as they got a deflection in the 4th minute. From that point forward, they were pretty much dominated. They’ve lost the possession battle in each match and been outshot as well. While this is their first Gold Cup appearance in a decade, Guadeloupe is on an 0-5 run in this event. Suriname is more deserving to leave with some points and I think they’ll get the full three here. 7* Suriname

10* Under Royals/Brewers (4:10 ET): Kansas City comes in as the second lowest scoring team in the American League. Now they’ll be without a DH as they pay a visit to Milwaukee, who happens to be a top five team in all of baseball when it comes to the fewest number of runs allowed. Throw in the fact that it’s an all-lefty starting pitching matchup for Tuesday and I think all signs point to this being a pretty low-scoring matchup. Take the Under.

The Brewers actually have revenge here as they dropped two games in KC back in May. However, since that time, the bottom has really dropped out on the Royals.  They were 20-22 following those two wins over the Brew Crew two months ago. They’ve subsequently gone 17-33 the L50 games. Today they’ll face Eric Lauer, who has a 0.98 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in his last three starts. It should be a long day at the plate for the road team as they are averaging only 3.5 runs per game on the road to begin with. They have not homered in 10 days. 

But it should be pointed out that even though they started the second half by scoring 26 runs in a three-game sweep of the Reds, Milwaukee is not a great hitting team. They are dead last in the NL with a .223 batting average. The fact they are 6th in runs scored is surprising given that average. They had some real “cluster luck” against the Reds with five different innings of 3+ runs. I realize Mike Minor’s numbers haven’t been great for Kansas City, but here he’s facing a team that hits just .216 in its home park! 10* Under Royals/Brewers

8* Milwaukee (4:10 ET): Kansas City comes in as the second lowest scoring team in the American League. Now they’ll be without a DH as they pay a visit to Milwaukee, who happens to be a top five team in all of baseball when it comes to the fewest number of runs allowed. Tuesday’s  pitching matchup isn’t exactly what I’d call “favorable” for the Royals, in fact it’s quite the opposite as Eric Lauer (0.98 ERA, 1.091 WHIP L3 starts) opposes Mike Minor (9.00, 1.667 L3 starts). No need to overthink this one. Go with the home team. 

The Brewers actually have revenge here as they dropped two games in KC back in May. However, since that time, the bottom has really dropped out on the Royals.  They were 20-22 following those two wins over the Brew Crew two months ago. They’ve subsequently gone 17-33 the L50 games. They’ve dropped six of the last seven and the second half began with them losing two of three - at home - to lowly Baltimore. On the road, this team has been outscored by 1.7 rpg this season. 

The Brew Crew started the 2nd half with a three-game sweep of the Reds. While I have some reservations about the offense (.223 BA is the lowest in the NL), this is a team with great pitching. Lauer is coming off three straight quality starts where he’s allowed a combined two runs on 10 hits. The Royals have lost Minor’s last four starts with him allowing 24 runs on 30 hits. Minor has allowed at least four runs in all four starts. I see the home team winning a low-scoring game today. 8* Milwaukee

10* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): This is a big series in the NL West. The Dodgers would pull even with the Giants for first place with a win tonight and that’s exactly what I think is going to transpire. Los Angeles comes in as the #1 rated team in my own personal power ratings as they have outscored the opposition by a MLB-best 154 runs this season. The Giants have been a nice surprise - and certainly should be commended for having the best overall record in MLB. But does anyone really think they are as good as the Dodgers (or even the Padres?). 

The Dodgers are 6-3 vs. the Giants this season. Though they did lose Sunday, LA did win the first two games of that series with Colorado. That loss yesterday saw closer Kenley Jansen blow a save in the bottom of the ninth. Had he done his job, the team would be on a five-game win streak. Tony Gonsolin will start tonight. Though he’s yet to factor into a single decision, the team is 5-1 in his six starts and he’s posted a 1.35 ERA and 0.825 WHIP in the last three. He’s yet to allow more than a single run in any start (though none have gone longer than 5 ⅓ innings). 

Kevin Gausman will start here for SF. He has the 2nd lowest ERA in the majors right now, but is just 1-3 in seven career starts vs. the Dodgers. Winning at Chavez Ravine is not easy if you’re the road team. The Dodgers are +2.0 rpg when playing host, which has led to a 30-14 record. The Giants lost each of the last two days, scoring only two runs in the process. That simply won’t get it done on the road against the Dodgers, no matter who the Giants have starting. 10* LA Dodgers

10* LA Angels (9:40 ET): The Angels have revenge as they were swept here in Oakland last month. Shohei Ohtani didn’t pitch in any of those three games, but will start tonight. Following a busy All-Star Break, Ohtani was predictably fatigued as his team began the second half of the season by dropping two of three at home to the Mariners. But he did homer on Sunday. Oakland also lost two of three over the weekend at home (to Cleveland) as their grip on second place in the AL West is loosening. I expect the Angels, led by Ohtani, to take this series opener. 

Ohtani has allowed 3 ER or less in six of his last seven outings. He did have the rough one at Yankees Stadium, but that was an aberration. In his first start before the ASB, he held Boston to two runs in seven innings as the Angels got the win there, 8-5. While he did lose here in Oakland back on May 28th, Ohtani allowed only three runs in six innings. The A’s have scored only four runs in the past two games, so I definitely expect Ohtani to pitch well tonight. 

Oakland was very nearly swept by Cleveland over the weekend. They won on Friday via a two-run walkoff. But as mentioned above, the offense didn’t produce much after that. They had just four hits yesterday. The A’s are only 28-24 at home and outside of one big win streak early in the year have basically been a .500 team overall. Cole Irvin has lost just once in his last seven starts, but has a 6.17 ERA the two times he’s faced the Angels. The A’s have lost six of their last seven series openers. 10* LA Angels

8* Over Red Sox/Yankees (7:08 ET): It took them eight tries, but the Yankees finally beat the Red Sox last night. That YTD head to head record of 1-7 is in stark contrast to the previous two seasons when the Yanks were 23-6 against their hated rivals. An important note about last night’s game. Rain was a major factor and the game was actually called after six innings. So the fact the final score was 3-1 was a little misleading. Expect a lot more runs to be scored tonight and for this one to go Over the total. 

Boston won’t have to worry about Gerritt Cole again tonight. Cole pitched the entirety of the game for the Yankees last night and had 11 strikeouts. It’s an obvious downgrade on the mound tonight when the Yankees will start Jameson Taillon. The Over is 11-5 in all Taillon starts this season including 3-0 the L3. He hasn’t necessarily given up that many runs of late, but he has allowed five home runs in those last three outings. When Taillon faced Boston earlier in the year, it wound up being a 7-3 loss.

Martin Perez will start for the Red Sox. Like Taillon, he served up two home runs in his most recent outing. That ended up being an 11-2 loss to Philadelphia. He has a 1.675 WHIP his L3 starts. The Yankees have had their issues scoring this season, but managed three runs in 3 ⅔ innings when they faced Perez back on June 25th. I realize that only four total runs have been scored each of the last two days, but Boston averages more than that per game by themselves and this game won’t be halted after six innings like last night. 8* Over Red Sox/Yankees

10* Over Haiti/Martinique (5:00 ET): There is nothing on the line here except pride as Haiti and Martinique conclude Group B action on Sunday evening in Dallas. Neither side can advance to the knockout stage as both are 0-2. Haiti lost 1-0 to the United States and 4-1 to Canada while Martinique has been even worse, also losing 4-1 to Canada but 6-1 to the U.S. With nothing to play for, I expect a pretty wide open match here and will go with the Over. 

Haiti has never finished a Gold Cup without a point in seven all-time appearances. This is clearly their best shot to continue that streak as it was a tough draw with the U.S. and Canada being in the same group. The 2019 semifinalists actually played better than the 4-1 scoreline would indicate vs. Canada. There were numerous scoring chances at the end of the first half where they failed to convert. Now facing a side that has conceded 10 times in two matches, you can look for Haiti to put forth its highest scoring game of the tournament. I expect at least two goals from them. 

The reason I’m not going with Haiti here is a leaky final third. In three of their four defeats this year, Haiti has conceded in the opening 15 minutes. So I expect Martinique to score at least one goal here as well, just as they’ve done in each of the first two matches. Again, neither side has anything to play for, so there’s no reason to hold back. This is also Martinique’s best shot at salvaging at least a point. It should be wide-open and exciting tonight and if you like lots of goals, this one is for you. 10* Over Haiti/Martinique

10* LA Angels (4:07 ET): Back on Friday, I said that I’d be looking to fade Seattle pretty regularly in the second half of the season. Reason being they have completely overachieved. While I was wrong to fade them on Friday, the Mariners are now 49-44 with a -54 YTD run differential after taking a 9-4 loss on Saturday. With that run differential, the M’s have an expected win total of 40. The gap between actual and expected wins is by far the largest of any team in baseball this season. They are going to regress and I’ll call for them to lose again Sunday. 

The win yesterday puts the Angels a game above .500. They have a -22 run differential, which isn’t great, but it’s certainly better than the Mariners. The Angels were able to jump out to an early 5-0 lead last night and never looked back. They did so against Yusei Kikuchi, Seattle’s only All-Star, so I think they are certainly capable of putting up a “crooked number” against Logan Gilbert today. The Mariners are 8-0 in Gilbert’s last eight starts, but the right-hander has gone a full six innings only three times all year. This will also be the Angels’ second crack at him.

Patrick Sandoval will toe the rubber for the home team on Sunday. He threw a career seven innings in his final start before the All-Star Break, against Seattle, and allowed only two runs. Unfortunately, the Angels still lost the game 2-0. But look for a better result here as the team is putting up 5.5 runs per game at home. Sandoval has actually yet to allow more than three runs in any start this season. Seattle continues to be one of the worst offensive teams as they are last in team batting average, last in OBP and last in OPS. 10* LA Angels

10* Over Honduras/Panama (9:30 ET): Scoring was not in short supply for either side in the respective first group matches. Honduras crushed Grenada 4-0 while Panama played to a 3-3 draw with Qatar. Going by those two scorelines, it would certainly seem reasonable to expect more than two total goals being scored in this one and thus Over is the call Saturday night in Group D action.

Four different players scored for Honduras in that opening match. They should certainly be able to now take advantage of a Panama defense that has become somewhat leaky of late. The Panamanians have conceded three times in B2B matches, the other being an International Friendly against Mexico prior to the start of this Tournament. Honduras has now gone two matches without conceding, but that should certainly change here as they are faced with a much better opponent than what they saw Tuesday. 

Panama had to rally from a goal down THREE different times against Qatar to share the points in their opening match. Given the fireworks that were on display in that one, it would shock me if both sides didn’t score at least once here. That puts the Over in play. This simply looks like a bad job from the oddsmakers. 10* Over Honduras/Panama

10* Milwaukee (9:05 ET): Zig-zag theory be damned, I’m fading Phoenix again in Game 5. While it was a somewhat fortuitous cover on the Bucks in Game 4 (they trailed by as many as nine in the 4Q), the key here is that the surprisingly large edge in FG% that the Suns enjoyed in the last game simply isn’t likely to be present again. They shot 51.3 percent from the floor in Game 4 - while Milwaukee shot just 40.2 percent - and still LOST. Even though they are on the road again, the Bucks shooting is likely to improve here and that makes taking the points seem like the logical option to me. 

Now Suns’ fans are obviously going to decry the foul trouble that Devin Booker was in throughout Game 4. Booker still ended up scoring 42 points, but spent long stretches on the bench due to the aforementioned foul trouble. Honestly, he should have fouled out of the game with a few minutes left. It’s very likely that Booker ends up not being whistled for as many fouls at home, but I don’t see him going for 40+ points again. The fact no one else on the team contributed more than 15 points in Game 4 should be worrisome to Suns fans. I just don’t see the team shooting as well as it did overall in the last game. 

Kris Middleton was the Game 4 hero for Milwaukee, who now looks to end an 0-5 SU/ATS streak in Phoenix. Middleton scored 40 Wednesday night, a number that teammate Giannis Antetokounmpo exceeded each of the previous two contests. Right now, I simply have more faith in the Bucks’ top scorers being able to collectively lift the team up (don’t forget Jrue Holiday) compared to their Suns’ counterparts. Milwaukee has to be pleased with the fact they have this series tied despite Phoenix finishing with a higher FG% in every game. Eventually, the Bucks are going to shoot better. I’ll bank on that happening tonight. 10* Milwaukee

8* Oakland (4:07 ET): The A’s started the 2nd half in thrilling fashion, beating the Indians in the final at-bat last night. A Jed Lowrie 2-run walkoff HR ended it as the team improved to 53-40 on the year. They have a fairly comfortable lead in the race for Wild Card (3.5 games) and are now 5.5 games up on Cleveland. The Indians are really not a team you want to be betting on right now as they’ve lost 10 of 13, the only wins coming in a three-game sweep of Kansas City at home. Injuries are a real concern for the Tribe. 

So I expect the A’s to win again Saturday, probably a lot more comfortably this time. They send out Frankie Montas, who has a 2.60 ERA and 1.096 WHIP his L3 starts. He had 10 strikeouts his last time out, a 6 ⅔ inning effort where he allowed just one run on five hits. Montas has now allowed 3 ER or less in six of his last seven starts. Cleveland doesn’t hit particularly well (.221 on the road) and they are second to last in all of baseball in on base percentage. So this should be another strong effort from Montas. 

I do not expect a strong effort from Indians starter Cal Quantrill. He has a 6.27 ERA and 1.455 WHIP in eight starts. The three (starts) that have come on the road have not gone well. He has a 9.29 ERA in those. The team is 0-3 in those three road starts. With yesterday’s loss, the Indians are just 3-13 the L16 games vs. Oakland. They are also 0-6 L6 road games overall. 8* Oakland

8* LA Angels (9:37 ET): Seattle is a team I plan on fading quite regularly in the second half of the season. I know they finished the first half up 18.1 units. Only San Francisco was a more profitable team to bet on. But at 48-43 on the season, the Mariners have drastically overachieved. That won-loss record may not sound all that great, but consider for a moment that the M’s have actually been outscored this season by 50 runs. Based on that run differential, you’d expect them to have a record of 40-51. That eight game gap between actual and expected wins is - by far - the largest in all of baseball. 

The Angels are 45-44, two games behind Seattle in the AL West, but do have a slightly better YTD run differential (-26). They also have two of the best players in all of baseball - Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. The latter has been hurt most of the year, but the former has dazzled - both at the plate and on the mound. It is interesting that Seattle had just one All-Star (Yusei Kikuchi) and he wasn’t even able to pitch Tuesday because of COVID-19 concerns. Meanwhile, the Mariners offense finished the first half dead last in all of MLB in team batting average and OBP. They are also 29th in OPS.

These teams just met right before the ASB with Seattle taking two of three at home. Friday’s starter Chris Flexen won one of those games for the Mariners by tossing seven shutout innings. However, the road has been less kind to Flexen as he has a 6.97 ERA and 1.742 WHIP. The Angels come in averaging 5.5 runs per game at home this season. So I expect enough support for Andrew Heaney, who did not pitch in the last series. He has allowed 3 ER or fewer in five of his last seven starts. 8* LA Angels

10* Under Rays/Braves (7:20 ET): Here it’s an American League team coming up to bat in a National League park, so that means no DH for Tampa Bay. Now they do a pretty good job at scoring runs away from home (5.3 per game). But the vast majority of those have come with the DH in the lineup. While Atlanta averages that same number at home and there’s no DH, expect that number to start coming down in the second half. Remember that they have lost Ronald Acuna Jr to a season-ending ACL injury. I like both starting pitchers in this matchup, so Under is the call.

The Braves were busy during the All-Star Break, acquiring Joc Pederson from the Cubs in exchange for a minor league prospect. But there’s no replacing Acuna, who led the team in batting average, home runs and OBP. Unfortunately for Atlanta, their “pain” is Tampa Bay’s “gain” here, specifically for Rays starter Michael Wacha. In his last two starts, Wacha has been great as he’s surrendered just one run in 11 IP. He’s also given up just five hits.

The Rays come into the second half trailing the Red Sox by 1.5 games in the AL East, though I think they’re the better team. They usually do well in Interleague games, however here they are up against Charlie Morton, who is 8-3 in his 18 starts this season and boasts a 0.927 WHIP in the last three. Last time out, Morton tossed seven shutout innings of two hit ball. That was the third time in his last five starts that Morton went at least 7 IP and did not allow a single run. In five career starts vs. TB, he has a 3.23 ERA. 10* Under Rays/Braves

10* Milwaukee (9:05 ET): Down 0-2 in the series, the Bucks got the win they desperately needed in Game 3 and did so in emphatic fashion. Leading virtually the entire way, they had no problem covering the 4.5-point spread. It wound up 120-100 with Giannis Antetokounmpo scoring 41 points. The home team is now 3-0 SU/ATS in this series. Phoenix has not lost B2B games since the first round series vs. the Lakers and is 13-3 SU in its L16 games. They are 2-0 ATS off a SU loss during that time. But Milwaukee is very tough at home where they are 34-11 SU for the season with just one loss in the playoffs. I’m laying the points in Game 4. 

Remember when it was thought that an injured Antetokounmpo might not be a factor in this series? Neither do I. Kidding, but Antetokounmpo is off B2B 40+ point games. He went for 20-17 in Game 1. Clearly, he’s not hobbled by his left knee injury any longer. At home, he can expect help from Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, both of whom had good Game 3 performances. That duo combined to go 14 of 28 from the field and 8 of 17 from three-point range. The team averages 119.3 PPG at home. I expect a similar offensive effort to Game 3. 

Phoenix did not have a strong offensive effort in Game 3. Devin Booker really struggled, going 3 of 14 from the field, including 1 of 7 from three-point range. He finished with only 10 points. Booker figures to better those numbers in Game 4, but I also don’t think the Suns will shoot 48.2% from the floor again like they did Sunday. Milwaukee seems to have a huge edge in the paint and they outscored Phoenix by 15 pts from behind the arc in G3. Look for the home team to win again. 10* Milwaukee

10* Under Suns/Bucks (8:05 ET): The first two games of this year’s NBA Finals both went Over the total as have all four meetings this season between the Suns and Bucks. But Phoenix probably isn’t going to shoot as well in Game 3 now that the series moves to Milwaukee. The Suns were 48.9% overall from the field in Game 2 and made 20 threes. They aren’t going to match this numbers tonight. It definitely felt like Game 2 “should have” stayed Under as there were “only” 200 points scored with 4:10 remaining. But plenty of late free throws helped “seal the deal.” Look for this to be a lower-scoring game. 

Milwaukee had been 5-0 Under this postseason when trailing in the series. They still are allowing just 105.2 PPG in the playoffs. They’ve played eight games at home and allowed less than 100 in regulation six times. Phoenix has seen two players get hurt in the first two games - Dario Saric and Torrey Craig - so their lack of depth could become a problem. Role players typically don’t do as well on the road, so Mikal Bridges isn’t going to match the 27 points he scored in Game 2 here. Again, the team’s three-point shooting should take a major “hit” compared to what we saw in Game 2. 

Considering we didn’t even know if he was going to play in this series, Giannis Antetokounmpo has been rather remarkable for the Bucks. He went for 42 in Game 2 after a 20-17 performance in Game 1. I definitely don’t see him duplicating the previous game’s performance. Phoenix has allowed only 102.4 PPG in the playoffs and is right on that exact number the L5 games. The Bucks have only scored 108 and 105. This figures to be the lowest-scoring game of the series so far as the Under is 4-1 the L5 times Phoenix has been a dog. 10* Under Suns/Bucks

10* Run Line LA Dodgers (4:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am taking the Dodgers -1.5. They absolutely humiliated Arizona last night, winning 22-1. So the Dodgers will go into the ASB with MLB’s top run differential (+139) while the D’backs will have the worst RD (-147). LA is 8-1 vs. Arizona this season, the only loss coming in the opener of this series. I obviously cannot see the D’backs beating the Dodgers twice in three days. Given what happened yday, a multi-run win for the home team seems pretty plausible. 

The Dodgers tied franchise records for most home runs (8) and runs scored in a game yesterday. Justin Turner and Mookie Betts both hit grand slams. Believe it or not, all the scoring came in four innings. It was 9-0 after two innings. Yesterday may have been an extreme, but the Dodgers are out-scoring opponents by two full runs per game at home this year. Arizona is getting outscored by 2.1 rpg on the road.

One of the stranger things you’ll find is that the D’backs are 4-0 the L4 times that Merrill Kelly has started. This is a team that has lost 52 of its last 63 games overall! Unless Kelly has some “magic power,” I’d say that he is due for a loss. Before the 4-0 run, the team was 0-8 in Kelly starts in May and June. Tony Gonsolin starts opposite Kelly and has a 1.96 ERA in five starts this year. He’s yet to factor in a decision and now seems like a great time for his first win. Lay the -1.5. 10* Run Line LA Dodgers (-1.5)

10* Over Italy/England (3:00 ET): So last night’s Copa America Final may not have been as high-scoring as I’d anticipated, but you can look for Sunday’s Euro Cup final to go Over the total. This despite the fact England has conceded only one goal this entire tournament. But that one goal came in the semifinal win over Denmark and it certainly felt as if they could have conceded one more. Italy has scored more times than anybody in Euro 2020 (12 goals), but they’ve also conceded in every match here in the knockout stage.

Over the course of an incredible 33-match unbeaten run, Italy has outscored the opposition by 76 goals. But making the task tougher here is the fact that this Final will be played at Wembley Stadium where England has won 15 of its last 17 matches. The Three Lions are also unbeaten in their L12 across all competitions with 11 wins and one draw. So this is a matchup certainly worthy of being a Final. While most probably are expecting a tightly played match, I think there will be more fireworks than anticipated. 

Italy allowed Spain to control 70% of the possession in the semifinal, plus they allowed 16 shots on goal. I know that England has only two games with multiple goals in this tournament, but it “feels” like they are on the cusp of another goal-scoring breakthrough. Maybe not the likes of what we saw vs. Ukraine, but look for them to score at least once inside of 90 minutes Sunday. Also expect at least one goal from Italy, who has scored at least once inside of 90 in every match in the tournament. 10* Over Italy/England

10* Dustin Poirier (11:59 ET): Back when these two fought in January, I played the Under at 2.5 rounds. I also “warned” of the potential Poirier upset, noting that “many respected MMA minds (had been) talking about how there is no way Dustin Poirier should be this big of an underdog and they do have a point.” I said if Poirier was to win, “it would be by early knockout, not grinding out a decision.” Sure enough, he ended McGregor’s night with a second round TKO.

This will be the third fight between the two lightweights (McGregor won the first, back in 2014) and the completion of the trilogy promises to be the biggest fight of 2021. This time, Poirier is likely to close as the slight favorite and for good reason. Not only did he just defeat McGregor six months ago, but he’s obviously a much better fighter now compared to 2014 when he lost the first fight. Meanwhile, the same cannot be said for McGregor, who still may be the sport’s biggest draw but is no longer its best fighter. He has fought only three times since 2016 and lost twice. 

Poirier is now 11-2 (w/ one NC) since the loss to McGregor in ‘14, improving his career record to 27-6 (19-5 in UFC). With 155 lb champ Khabib Nurmagomedov vacating the title, Poirier was in line to fight for the vacant title but instead opted to take this fight, which is the obvious bigger payday. It’s a risk, but one that should reward him handsomely if he can win here and then take the LW title. I think he’ll prevail here fairly easily as I’ve got reason to believe McGregor is long past his peak at this point. There was never any denying that Poirier was the better wrestler in this matchup, he now also may be the better striker. 10* Dustin Poirier 

10* Over Brazil/Argentina (8:00 ET): There were certainly many “trials and tribulations” just to get the 2021 Copa America Tournament underway. But in the end, it’s come down to the two sides everyone expected. Brazil, the reigning champs, will look to win this event for a 10th time. Argentina has 14 Copa America titles to its credit, but the last one came 28 years ago. It’s a matchup where I don’t feel comfortable predicting a winner. However, I do anticipate both sides scoring at least once inside of 90 minutes and thus Over is my call for Saturday’s Final in Rio. 

Neither side has been beaten in this tournament and each have just one draw as the lone “blemish.” Argentina opened with a 1-1 draw vs. Chile, but then ran through the rest of the group stage in impressive fashion. After downing Uruguay and Paraguay by identical 1-0 scores, they smoked Group A bottom feeders Bolivia 4-1. Then came a 3-0 win over Ecuador in the quarterfinals. Having won four straight while keeping three clean sheets had La Albiceleste very confident heading into the semis vs. Colombia. But they actually needed to go to penalties to outlast La Tricolor after things were tied 1-1 after 120 minutes.

Brazil, like Argentina, has scored at least one goal inside 90 minutes in every match in this tournament. Their draw, 1-1 vs. Ecuador, came in the final match of the group stage. They’ve since claimed a pair of 1-0 victories over Chile and Peru in the knockout rounds. Having conceded only twice in the entire tournament is impressive, but a motivated Lionel Messi and Argentina will prove difficult to keep off the scoresheet. None of the L4 H2H meetings have seen more than two goals scored, but this one breaks the streak. 10* Over Brazil/Argentina

10* Under Nationals/Giants (4:05 ET): These teams have now played five times this season. All five games have gone Under. It was a 5-3 Giants win on Friday, The previous series, which took place in D.C., was REALLY low-scoring. Three of the games ended in shutouts and none saw more than five total runs scored. Armed with that knowledge, I’ll look for the Nationals & Giants to go Under again Saturday afternoon. Only the Mets allow a fewer number of runs per game than do the Giants. 

Anthony DeSclafani has NEVER posted double digit wins in a single season. He could achieve it for the first time here, before we even hit the All-Star Break. His last three starts have all gone Under with him posting a 2.18 ERA and 0.968 WHIP. He did allow three solo home runs against the Dodgers on 6/28. But other than that, he’s been pretty spotless. He was one out away from a complete game in his last start. In 16 of his 17 starts this season, DeSclafani has allowed 3 ER or less. You can count on him here. 

The Nationals had a four-game Over streak end yesterday. Now Saturday starter Jon Lester has his own four-game Over streak coming into this game. It’s been a rough stretch, but Lester also had a five-start stretch from late May through mid-June when he allowed 2 ER or less every time out. Three of the runs he was charged with last time out were unearned. In six regular season starts vs. the Giants, Lester is 5-1 with a 2.00 ERA. Look for the Under trend with these teams to continue. 10* Under Nationals/Giants

8* Under Angels/Mariners (10:10 ET): The Angels have won six of seven, scoring 6.1 rpg and hitting nearly .300 as a team. Most of those games came at home, however. Now they hit the road where their scoring average drops to 4.3 rpg for the year. They head to Seattle to face a Mariners team that is no offensive powerhouse in its own right. The Mariners have been unable to top four runs in any of their last five games (did win yday) and are hitting a paltry .203 at home for the season! Take the Under here. 

Overall, Seattle is dead last in all of MLB in team batting average and on base percentage. They are 29th (next to last) in OPS. I’ve been through this before, but it is a miracle that they are four games above .500 on the season, given their run differential (which is now -50). I look for LA starter Alex Cobb, who has a 0.98 WHIP his L3 starts, to pitch well tonight. 

Marco Gonzales, who did not look good against Texas last weekend, will start this game for the M’s. I faded Gonzales in that spot last week as he was coming off a stint on the paternity list. With a start under his belt, he should pitch better here. He has certainly pitched well in the past vs. the Angels, going 8-1 with a 3.55 ERA in 15 career starts against them. Seattle is only allowing 4.0 rpg at home this season with visiting teams batting just .219. 8* Under Angels/Mariners

8* Over Reds/Brewers (8:10 ET): Milwaukee seemed to be at a disadvantage going into yday’s series opener with the Reds as they had just played a doubleheader the previous day (split with the Mets). But they were able to prevail 5-3, thus partly getting revenge for a sweep they suffered at the hands of Cincinnati last month here at home. The Brew Crew lead the NL Central right now with a seven-game lead over the second place Reds. My view is that tonight’s game is likely to be higher scoring than yesterday. Take the Over. 

Scoring runs has not been an issue for the Reds in 2021. In fact, they are 2nd in the NL in runs scored, only trailing the Dodgers.They’d been better at run suppression lately, but the troubled bullpen (5.28 ERA) could not hold the lead last night. Wade Miley gets the start Friday. While he allowed only two runs his last time out, he did give up 10 hits. That one went Under, but his previous six starts had all gone Over the total. The Over is 10-5 in all Miley starts this season. 

Eric Lauer is off B2B quality starts for Milwaukee. But the last time he faced the Reds, Lauer gave up four runs in five innings and Milwaukee lost 10-2. Four of his last five starts have gone Over the total. Things didn’t go any better for Lauer when he faced the Reds last August as he gave up six runs in three innings. Both of these starters are lefties. The Reds are 7-2 Over L9 road games vs. a lefty. The Brewers are 7-2-1 their L10 home games vs. a lefty. 8* Over Reds/Brewers

8* Over Phillies/Red Sox (7:10 ET): Coming off a four-game series in which they scored a total of 39 runs, the Phillies now get to use the DH as they visit Boston this weekend. Of course, the Phils give up their fair share of runs as well. They may not have given up any yesterday (won 8-0), but that was to a Cubs team that can’t score right now. In three of the previous nine games, Phillies pitching surrendered 11 or more runs. The Red Sox have scored the 2nd most runs in all of MLB, so this one is likely going Over. 

Boston wasn’t as successful in its last series, which saw them drop two of three to the Angels. However, barring a terrible weekend, they are likely to head into the All-Star Break in first place in the AL East. I’m not concerned about their ability to score runs Friday, but what they need to be concerned about is starter Garrett Richards, who has been very poor of late. Richards has an 8.02 ERA and 2.107 WHIP his L3 starts. It’s not like his season-long numbers are much better either. Richards really seems to struggle here at Fenway Park where he has a 6.75 ERA and 2.079 WHIP. 

These teams played three games in Philadelphia earlier in the season. Only one of the three games saw more than 11 runs scored, but remember that was without a DH in play. Richards did not pitch in any of the three games for Boston. Neither did Vince Velasquez for Philly. Velasquez’s numbers aren’t quite as poor as Richards, but he did just allow 5 ER in his last start. In seven of the Phillies last 10 games, the winning team has had to score at least eight runs. The Over is 5-0 their L5 games. 8* Over Phillies/Red Sox

10* Milwaukee (9:05 ET): Even with the return of Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks could not overcome Chris Paul and the Suns in Game 1 Tuesday night. Antetokounmpo didn’t just play, he contributed a strong effort with 20 points and 17 rebounds. Teammate Khris Middleton had 29 points. But where the Bucks were really hurt was the free throw line. Not only did they have 10 fewer attempts, they had 16 fewer makes. Phoenix was 25 of 26 from the charity stripe while Milwaukee was 9 of 16. That difference was basically identical to the difference in the final score. I look for a much tighter Game 2 and possible Bucks’ outright win. Take the points. 

Following their last three playoff losses, the Bucks have come back to win and cover the spread in the next game. All three wins were by double digits and the average margin of victory was 20.0 PPG! Now every one of those games was played in Milwaukee. But the Bucks have proven they can win on the road. They did so in Game 7 vs. Brooklyn in Round 2 and took two of three in Atlanta in the Eastern Conference Finals. While the Suns have opened the last two series with B2B wins, Game 2 vs. the Clippers was decided by just a single point (on a last second alley-oop). 

Phoenix lost its backup center (Dario Sakic) to a season-ending ACL injury in Game 1. While they were able to persevere and win the game, depth is now a bit of a concern. With Antetokounmpo back, this spread seems a bit high. I know he played in Game 1 and the Bucks still lost, but this team is 10-4 SU off a DD loss this season and 4-1 when trailing in a playoff series. I see Jrue Holiday scoring more than 10 points (his Gm 1 total) in Game 2. He missed all four three-point attempts. The Bucks are allowing just 104.5 PPG in the playoffs and I expect a better effort at the defensive end tonight. 10* Milwaukee

10* Under Phillies/Cubs (8:05 ET): This has been a high-scoring series with every game seeing a minimum of 11 total runs scored. The Phillies exceeded that number themselves in each of the first two games. The good news for the Cubs is they FINALLY snapped their long losing streak (had reached 11 games) with an 8-3 win last night. The first inning was key for Chicago on Wednesday as they scored three unearned runs with two outs. There was a Phillies error followed by four straight soft singles. I don’t think they can count on that happening again and the Phils are due to start cooling off at the plate as well. Take the Under here. 

The first two games of this series saw Philadelphia score 28 runs. It was the first time they scored 10+ runs in B2B games in over six years. So it wasn’t a shock then to see them reduced to scoring only three runs yesterday. They face Adbert Alzolay tonight. Don’t be fooled by the fact Alzolay has an 0-4 TSR his L4 starts. He’s off a quality effort last time out against the Reds, who are a good offensive team. In that start, Alzolay allowed just three runs on five hits. The Under is 5-1 the last six times the Phillies have been off a loss. 

All eight runs scored by the Cubs yesterday came with two outs. So it wasn’t just the first inning that saw them get a bit lucky. Prior to the L2 days, this is a team that had scored three runs or less in 17 of 21 games. So after them scoring 18 runs in the L2 games, I’d certainly expect a substantial decrease in production tonight. Zach Eflin starts for the Phillies here. He not only has a 2.81 ERA in four career starts vs. the Cubs, but is also coming off B2B quality starts. Eflin held the Mets and Padres to just three runs and eight hits in 12 IP. The Under is 9-3 for the Cubs if they scored 5+ runs their previous game. 10* Under Phillies/Cubs