10* Under Stuttgart/Leverkusen (12:30 PM ET): I would like to start by “formally apologizing” for last week’s 10* Total of the Year play here in the Bundesliga. It was a true “comedy of errors.” The proceedings began with both sides (Dortmund and Leverkusen) benefitting from an “own goal” in the first 16 minutes. That is ridiculous. From there, I knew I was done for, but what must be pointed out about the match ending up 5-2 (for Leverkusen) is that there were only a combined 3.41 xG! 

Leverkusen’s actual goal total this Bundesliga season (54) exceeds their xG total by almost 14! Among Europe’s “Big 5” leagues, only Serie A’s Lazio has overachieved more from a goal scoring perspective. Considering this, and what happened last week, there HAS to be some inevitable offensive regression from this side. They’ve scored 10 goals in just the last two matches. That pace simply cannot be maintained, especially by a side that’s already overachieving its xG total by so much. 

No “clean sheets” in the last 11 games is also something to consider for Leverkusen. But I won’t be surprised if that streak comes to an end this week as they face Stuttgart, who currently sits in the relegation zone, ahead of only Greuther Furth. Stuttgart had not scored in five straight fixtures before losing 3-2 to Eintracht Frankfurt last week. What was crazy about that last result is that Stuttgart had an xGA (expected goals allowed) of just 0.84 in that match.  It may seem “dicey,” but I truly believe we’re heading for an Under here. 10* Under Stuttgart/Leverkusen

8* Alabama (12:00 ET): The Crimson Tide handled their business Wednesday in Oxford, beating Ole Miss by a score of 97-83 and easily covering the 5.5-point spread. Make no mistake about it, despite the Tide having a losing record in conference play, I believe this is a Top 25 team. Joe Lunardi has them as a 5-seed in his latest edition of “Bracketology.” The reason that Bama is just 15-9 SU overall - and 5-6 vs. the SEC - is they have played the toughest schedule in the country. Note that before the win over Ole Miss, the Tide had faced Baylor, Auburn and Kentucky, all top five teams at the time. That’s also after facing (and defeating) both Houston and Gonzaga earlier in the year. 

Holding wins over three of last year’s Final Four is very impressive. But now the Tide must defeat a team that’s won nine in a row and just beat #1 Auburn, 80-76. That would be Arkansas, a team that also ought to be ranked. The Razorbacks hadn’t defeated a top ranked team since 1984 and needed overtime to do it on Tuesday. The game was in Fayetteville as well. As hot as the Hogs have been, this looks like a classic “letdown” spot for them. Four of their five losses, including the last two, have come on the road. 

Arkansas did lose to Hofstra earlier this year, remember. They’ve shot poorly in B2B games, making less than 38% overall and 25% from three-point range. I just trust Alabama to make more shots here, even though they’ve struggled from behind the arc themselves. But they shot a blistering 60% overall against Ole Miss, including 12 of 28 on threes. Other than a visit to Kentucky, I can see Nate Oats’ team running the table from now until the end of the regular season. Like I said, this is a very good team (they are #20 in my power ratings) and I think they show it on Saturday. 8* Alabama

10* Under Bologna/Lazio (9:00 AM ET): I thought I had it last week, taking the Under on Lazio. It was 0-0 at the half against Fiorentina, who were playing for the first time since its leading scorer Dusan Vlahovic transferred to Juventus. Lazio, as mentioned in the analysis, has exceeded its xG total more than not just every side in Serie A, but every side in any of Europe’s “Big 5” leagues. But in the second half, disaster struck as Lazio struck for three goals, just barely sending the match Over the total. The real “kicker” was that the third goal was an OG (own goal) from Fiorentina. 

But I’m sticking to “my guns” here. Lazio has now incredibly exceeded its xG total by almost 15 in league play. That’s absurd. However, a four match unbeaten run ended midweek with a 4-0 loss in the Coppa Italia semis to AC Milan. Certainly, conceding four times there was a sharp departure from what Lazio had done previously as they were coming off four consecutive “clean sheets.” But perhaps most costly of all was that top scorer Ciro Immobile limped off the pitch Wednesday and may be forced to miss this fixture.

Having not conceded a single goal in its last three Serie A matches, Lazio should do fine here on the back end against sputtering Bologna, who is down to 13th place after winning just once in its last eight tries. It was a 0-0 draw vs. Empoli LW for Bologna. That was the sixth time in the previous seven fixtures that they were held to one goal or less. Throw in Lazio’s inevitable offensive regression and you’ve got to like the Under here. 10* Under Bologna/Lazio

10* Fresno State (9:30 ET): This is a huge game for Fresno State, who I believe to be better than Colorado State, but the Bulldogs currently sit 1.5 games back of the Rams in the Mountain West standings. FSU is also three games off the conference lead (currently shared by Boise State and Wyoming). At this point, it’s highly unlikely that they can make a run at finishing first, but all that matters is getting into the NCAA Tournament. Right now, FSU is considered on the “outside looking in” in that department, so a win tonight would do wonders for their resume. 

Colorado State comes in at 18-3 SU on the season. Their first loss didn’t occur until January 8th, but it was by 30 to San Diego State (I had the Aztecs there). The Rams entered last Friday’s rematch with SDSU off B2B losses, but took a huge lead only to see it wither away. In the end, they prevailed 58-57. That was followed by a commanding 82-72 win over Nevada on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Fresno State has been idle since Saturday’s narrow home defeat (61-59) to Wyoming. I’d say the situation/schedule favors the underdog tonight.

FSU has the best player in the Mountain West, Orlando Robinson, a seven-footer that averages 19 points and eight rebounds per game. But I think the real key for the Bulldogs in this matchup is on the defensive end as they rank just inside the top 25 (24th) nationally in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Colorado State is only 122nd, easily the lowest ranking of the top six MWC teams. The added rest leading into this game, plus the revenge factor (FSU is 0-6 SU/ATS L6 meetings) have me taking the points here. 10* Fresno State

8* St. Bonaventure (9:00 ET): The A-10 does not have a dominant team this season. For a brief time (one week), Davidson was ranked in the Top 25. But with six consecutive wins, Saint Louis is certainly staking its claim as the conference’s best. The Billikens have covered the number in each of the last four wins, the most recent being a 75-57 beatdown of LaSalle on Tuesday. But tonight shapes up as a much tougher game than that as St. Bonaventure comes calling, desperate to get back in the race for one of the top spots in next month’s conference tournament. 

The Bonnies have certainly underperformed for much of 2021-22. Coming into the season, they were expected to contend for the A-10 title. Currently, they are just 5-4 SU in conference play and stuck in the middle of the pack. But a 76-51 blowout win over lowly Fordham on Tuesday was a step in the right direction. The team shot very well (50% from three-point range) and also got a season-high 21 points from Dominick Webb (to go along with 10 rebounds).

I think this is a buy low spot on the Bonnies and conversely a good time to sell high on Saint Louis. While the Billikens have been racking up wins lately, most of them have come at the expense of the bottom tier of the Atlantic 10. St. Bonaventure is probably the fourth best team in the conference, at least that’s what my own power ratings say. I expect a tight battle throughout and believe an outright upset is more likely than a blowout loss for the underdog. Take the points. 8* St. Bonaventure

10* Chicago (8:10 ET): This game has the highest O/U line of the NBA season. Points are to be expected with the Timberwolves having gone Over in 11 of the last 12 games and the Bulls doing the same in seven of their last eight. But the key for me here is that the T’wolves are dealing with multiple injuries to their starting lineup, putting them at a distinct disadvantage. When they don’t have their full starting five intact, this is a much different team. 

Now obviously Chicago knows a thing or two about injuries as well. Missing Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso has really hurt the team defense, but the Bulls just turned in their best game in a while, beating Charlotte on the road, 121-109 as 1.5-point favorites. They’ve fallen out of first place in the Eastern Conference, but the Bulls still have won four of seven despite the recent defensive issues. It helps that they are fourth in the league in offensive efficiency and DeMar DeRozan has gone for 30+ points in four consecutive games. The team has shot better than 51% from the floor in six of its last nine contests. 

Minnesota is coming off a 132-119 loss at Sacramento. Six players are currently listed as questionable for tonight, including Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell and Patrick Beverley. This is the Timberwolves’ third road game in four nights and it comes after playing two (both in Sacramento) on the West Coast. The T’wolves’ offense hasn’t been nearly as efficient as the Bulls and defensively they are giving up 116.5 PPG on the road this season. This looks like a spot where the home team will roll. 10* Chicago

6* RB Leipzig (2:30 ET): I don’t think that I’m alone in stating Bayern Munich is once again the class of the Bundesliga. Dortmund should also finish top four. You’ve also got to think that after thrashing Dortmund last week, Leverkusen is Champions League bound next season as well. So that leaves one spot in the top four and I firmly believe that is going to RB Leipzig. Despite losing 3-2 to Bayern last weekend, Leipzig still has the fourth best GD (+14) and is second in xPts. Still seventh in the table, however, now is the time they need to make their move.

For Leipzig, this week brings a fixture with the side directly ahead of them in the table, sixth place FC Cologne. Despite being one point ahead of Leipzig, Cologne has a far worse goal differential (-1) and is probably a bit lucky to be this high. Cologne were 1-0 winners last week against Freiburg, snapping a three-match winless run that included them being eliminated from the DFB Pokal by second tier side Hamburg and a 4-0 thrashing at the hands of Bayern. They could also only manage a 2-2 draw with Bochum.

I thought Leipzig fought valiantly last week against the German top flight’s top team, twice equalizing, only to then fall one short. Let’s be honest; the loss was expected. But prior to that, Leipzig had looked rather impressive, rattling off four consecutive victories (across all competitions) and three clean sheets. A win here would put them level with fourth place Union Berlin (at least temporarily). This is a huge match for Leipzig, who is the better side. Expect them to grab the full three points. 6* RB Leipzig

8* Pacific (9:00 ET): For the second time in three nights, Pacific takes on a Top 25 team. They covered against USC on Tuesday, only losing by six as 19-point road underdogs. The Tigers won’t have a more challenging matchup than this one tonight as they travel up to Spokane to face Gonzaga, who is probably the best team in the country. But fortunately, Pacific doesn’t need to win here for us to cash, or really even come close to winning. All they need to do is stay within 30(ish) points.

Now it’s been a bad season at the betting window for Pacific as their 5-16 ATS mark is the third worst cover rate in the country (ahead of only Morgan State and Marshall). But, as I just said, they covered the last game against a Top 25 opponent. They’ve actually now covered three of the last five games, including a shocking outright victory over BYU. This is an insane amount of points for a team that’s losing by less than 10 PPG this season.

Now Gonzaga is obviously great and should have no problem winning here. But with a game against St. Mary’s on deck, will the Zags’ full attention really be on Pacific? Probably not. On Saturday, the Bulldogs did turn in an incredible performance, destroying BYU 90-57 in Provo. But off that game and with the #2 WCC team coming in this weekend, tonight has all the makings of a classic “letdown” spot. Gonzaga’s average margin of victory this season is around 25 PPG, but Pacific is far from the worst team they have faced. Too many points to pass up here as Gonzaga is 2-5 ATS this season laying more than 30. 8* Pacific

10* Houston (8:10 ET): These two teams certainly couldn’t be trending in more opposite directions as Toronto has won and covered seven straight while Houston is 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS its last eight games. But they don’t call the pointspread “the great equalizer” for no reason. Tonight’s game not only marks the second game of a back to back for the Raptors, it is also their third road game in four nights. Eventually this team is going to run out of “steam” and not be able to win by a significant margin. Look for that to be the case here. 

Last night saw the Raptors win in OKC, 117-98. They scored a few more than I thought they would (I played the Under), thanks to shooting 51.1% from the floor. Shooting 68.4% in the 1Q essentially handed them the game right off the bat. But I don’t think that kind of shooting can/will continue. The current win streak, and last few games in particular, have seen the Raptors shoot far above their season average. It’s also worth noting that four of the seven wins have been by six points or less, or in overtime. 

Houston just got swept in a home and home by New Orleans. Incredibly, the last seven games have all seen Rockets’ opponents shoot better than 51% from the floor. You just don’t see that very often, even from teams as low in the standings as this one. Turnovers have been a massive issue for the Rockets, but I’m going to call for a “cleaner game” here tonight and coupled with inevitable defensive improvement, taking the points in this spot seems prudent. Toronto is 8-2 ATS playing with no rest, but only winning by four points per game and while this is their third game in a row being road favorites, it’s just the fourth time ALL YEAR (the first was an outright loss in Detroit). 10* Houston

10* Georgia State (7:00 ET): The preseason favorite to win the Sun Belt, Georgia State has really languished this season. They are just 3-5 SU in conference play, which has them third from the bottom in a league with no real clear-cut favorite at this point. Those who follow the SBC may recall that it was around this time last year the Panthers had a similar conference record, then went on an eight-game win streak, taking them to the Tournament Final. Do not rule out history repeating itself here in 2022! 

The Panthers are off a win, 69-62 over South Alabama, last weekend. That was their third win in the last four games. What needs to be noted with GSU is how unlucky they have been for much of this season. They’ve lost a couple overtime games and also a one-point game to Appalachian State, the team currently in first place. One of those two OT losses was to Coastal Carolina, who the Panthers face again tonight. I smell a big win in this revenge spot as Georgia State was an atrocious 3 of 28 from three-point range in that first meeting, a performance that will certainly be improved upon here. Second leading scorer Kane Williams was 1 of 13 overall from the field in that first meeting. 

Georgia State’s shooting has been a bit of an issue all season, but like I said, you get the sense it will improve. Also, opponents cannot continue making almost 40% from three-point range against them. In this particular situation, look for a massive turnaround from the first game when Coastal Carolina shot 45.5% from behind the arc. By the way, the Chanticleers have dropped two straight coming into tonight, 69-64 at Texas State on Saturday and 73-66 to Arkansas State here at home. 10* Georgia State

8* Arsenal (2:45 ET): With Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea all but assured of Champions League qualification for next season, this year’s Premier League discussion is now centered around “who will finish fourth?” Two of the main candidates do battle here with Wolverhampton welcoming in Arsenal. The Wolves have been hotter of late, but the Gunners still maintain a two-point edge in the table as they six in sixth place with the Wolves are eighth. Of course, that advantage could completely go away depending on the result here.

While the Wolves have been the hotter side of late, I do think their FA Cup loss to Norwich City last Saturday puts them at a slight disadvantage here. Arsenal hasn’t been on the pitch since a goalless draw with Burnley all the way back on January 23rd. Goal scoring has certainly been a problem for the Gunners of late. A winless January saw them held scoreless in their last four across all competitions. It is important to note that only two of the five fixtures were in the Premier League last month. Having been eliminated from both “Cups” (FA, Carabao), all Arsenal has to play for now is the top four and I’m expecting a motivated effort on Thursday. 

Now, having not scored in four straight competitions seems dubious when getting ready to face a Wolverhampton side that has conceded the second fewest number of goals in the Premier League this season. But, xGA says that the Wolves have been rather fortunate in that department as they “should have” conceded nearly 11 more times than they actually have. Throw in the fact that they are also the EPL’s third lowest scoring side (ahead of only Burnley and Norwich City!) and I think the hosts are a bit lucky to be in eighth position entering this match. Look for the visitors to come in and “steal” all three points here. 8* Arsenal

10* Under Raptors/Thunder (8:10 ET): For the sixth straight time, Toronto came out ahead a winner on Monday. I had them as they won 116-101 in Charlotte. It was the second time in three games I threw my money behind the Raptors, having previously done so when they beat Chicago last Thursday. Turns out I could have backed them in any of these six games, as not only are they 6-0 straight up, but also 6-0 ATS. They’ve got to like their chances of extending the win streak to seven games as they face OKC tonight. 

This spread is a little “rich for my blood,” however there’s also no chance I back the Thunder without their leading scorer (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) against a red hot team like the Raptors. Oklahoma City is last in the league in scoring (101.0 PPG) and 29th in offensive efficiency. In three of the last five games and 6 of the last 10, they have not broken 100 points. Keep in mind that two of those games went to overtime, so only once in that 10-game stretch have they topped 103 in regulation. 

I don’t see OKC doing much offensively in this game either. The one positive for them though is that they have held their last five opponents to an average of 102.2 PPG. Toronto’s offensive numbers have gone “through the roof” during the win streak, but two of the wins required overtime. A 124-120 win in Miami went to triple overtime. The last two games have been vs. Atlanta and Charlotte, two of the worst defensive teams in the league. I sense we’re in for a fairly low-scoring battle here. 10* Under Raptors/Thunder

8* Louisville (7:00 ET): The Cardinals were a real “dud” play for me on Saturday as they got waxed up in Syracuse 92-69. They never really were in it, as the game was 43-26 at halftime and Syracuse shot the lights out, including making 9 of its first 10 field goal attempts. What was so disappointing about that (lack of) effort from the Louisville side is that the two previous games had seen them “hang tough” with Duke and North Carolina. I know it’s been “tough times” for this program of late, with a coaching change and five straight losses. But leading scorer Malik Williams is set to return (from suspension) tonight. 

Meanwhile, Notre Dame cannot possibly play any better than it did Saturday at NC State. The Fighting Irish not only shot 53% from the floor themselves, but also held the Wolfpack under 30%. It wound up being a 12-point win in Raleigh, which was ND’s second straight road win after also upsetting Miami in Coral Gables earlier last week. But this team can certainly “run hot and cold.” In their last home game, the Irish only made 27.9% from the field and lost 57-43 to Duke. That’s their only loss in the past seven games, but also make note that three of the wins were by four points or less (one of them against Howard!). 

Williams being back is huge for L’ville as not only is he the team’s leading scorer, but he is also the leading rebounder. Even without him, the Cardinals took North Carolina to overtime last week. The game vs. Duke was even with seven minutes to go. Looking at each team’s most recent game, in my view, there’s no way Louisville’s defensive numbers won’t improve while at the same time ND’s will certainly regress. Take the points here. 8* Louisville

10* Richmond (7:00 ET): The Atlantic 10 is an interesting league as there’s no dominant team and I think as many as six teams could win the Conference Tournament next month. One of those six is Richmond, who until recently was looking pretty “dead in the water.” But the Spiders have rattled off six wins in their last seven games. If not for a buzzer beater by Davidson and a couple of last minute shots by VCU, then Richmond would be entering tonight’s game vs. George Mason on a nine-game win streak. 

These teams just met Monday with Richmond prevailing 62-59 at home. They did so despite shooting below 40% for the game. I’m a little surprised how subpar the Spiders’ shooting has been for much of this season, particularly from three-point range, but there were certainly signs of “heating up” in previous wins over St. Bonaventure and Duquesne. Opponents have also shot much better than expected for much of the A-10 campaign. My view is that we’re going to see these numbers start to move in Richmond’s favor down the stretch. 

The Spiders did not cover the spread on Monday as 7.5-point favorites, but led most of the second half (were up by 10 at one point). It was a deserved win after losing five of its previous seven games decided by six points. All we need is a win here over a George Mason team that may be “mentally beaten” after three straight losses by five points or less (one in double overtime). GMU didn’t have its leading scorer (Josh Oduro) Monday because of a concussion and he is questionable here. Regardless, I like Richmond to get the cash. 10* Richmond

8* UNC Asheville (6:30 ET): I took UNC Asheville last Wednesday, in a big spot, as they were a short home dog facing the #1 team in the Big South. Unfortunately, that play didn’t go as planned as the Bulldogs lost 56-48 to Longwood. Then they lost again Saturday, this time in a high-scoring game, 91-83 to High Point. That went to overtime. Most of this team’s decisions have come down to the wire in conference play. They’ve played three overtime games and lost two of them, plus there have been two other losses by a combined three points. The eight-point defeat to Longwood last week actually represents Asheville’s worst margin of defeat in conference play, for a game ending in regulation. 

Now they’ve also won a few close ones too. Their last win, which was on 1/29, came by a single point over Presbyterian. So all but ONE of the Bulldogs’ 10 conference games have been decided by eight points or less. The exception was an 82-59 win over Charleston Southern, back on Jan 8th. I expect tonight’s game, against a weak Hampton team, to go like that one did. Hampton, who has yet to be favored in a single Big South game this year, is off an upset win over Presbyterian on Monday. 

That win over Presbyterian came at home. Now on the road, playing for the second time in three days, it’s tough to see Hampton competing tonight. The Pirates are 1-4 SU/ATS with just one day of rest between games this season, while being outscored by double digits. They also haven’t won B2B games since early December and have just two road wins all year. Averaging only 58.4 PPG away from home this year isn’t an encouraging sign either. Hampton is a horrible three-point shooting team (28% for the year!) and UNC Asheville holds teams to 27.6% (for the year!) from behind the arc. This is a classic “get well game” for the home team. 8* UNC Asheville

10* Crystal Palace (2:45 ET): Having progressed to the fifth round of the FA Cup, Crystal Palace must now turn its attention to ending a three-match winless run in the Premier League. There were two losses and a draw for the Eagles in the English top flight last month. The losses were to Liverpool and West Ham, two top five sides, while the draw was against equally pesky Brighton & Hove Albion. Palace might only be sitting 13th in the table currently, but they are actually seventh in xPts (expected points), ahead of such heavyweights like Manchester United. They are an underrated side in the EPL.

Norwich City was also a winner in the FA Cup last week, surprising Wolverhampton 1-0. Even more surprising is that this side has won its last three matches across all competitions. The Canaries are, in my view, still the worst team in the Premier League. They have a -32 GD and seemed destined for relegation not even a month ago. Wins over Everton and Watford have allowed Norwich to climb out of the drop zone, into 17th with 16 points. But they have not rattled off three consecutive EPL wins since 2012 and this shapes up to be a very favorable fixture for Palace.

Even in the 3-0 win over Watford, Norwich lost the xG battle, so that could fairly be termed a “lucky win.” They also lost the possession battle (65% to 35%) in the FA Cup win over the Wolves. Crystal Palace is pretty sound defensively, while Norwich is still the lowest scoring EPL side and has created more than one xG just once in its last seven matches. In the reverse fixture back in December, Palace raced out to a dominant 3-0 win. They should be getting Wilfried Zaha back in the starting XI now that the Africa Cup of Nations is over. I like the value. 10* Crystal Palace

8* UNLV (10:00 ET): The Runnin’ Rebels are off an ugly 90-75 road loss where they let Utah State shoot 64% from the field. But this is a MUCH different team at home where they are 11-4 SU on the season. Their only two home losses in conference play came to a couple of the Mountain West’s “big boys” - San Diego State and Fresno State. It’s a much weaker opponent coming to the Thomas & Mack Center on Tuesday and the Rebels actually have revenge for a 69-62 loss in Colorado Springs earlier this year. 

Air Force is coming off TWO straight games where they didn't play any defense. They too let Utah State shoot north of 60% and then on Saturday, at home, they let New Mexico score 91 points on 58.9% shooting. Such a lack of defense is a real problem when you only average 60 PPG like the Flyboys do. The first game vs. UNLV, where they finished with 69 points, was the AFA’s highest scoring game of the conference slate. They shot 50% at home and it also helped that the Rebels were only 4 of 15 from three-point range. 

I don’t see those kinds of percentages existing again in tonight’s rematch, so expect a big UNLV win. Defensively, the Rebels are only allowing 62.5 PPG at home. This is a team that recently went to Colorado State and won 88-74 as a 15-point dog. Leading scorer Bryce Hamilton has been on a real roll of late, scoring 30+ points in four of the last six games. Air Force simply lacks the firepower to come into Vegas and compete. They’ve lost 28 of the L30 games here. Lay the points. 8* UNLV

analysis soon

10* Ohio (7:00 ET): This is the biggest regular season game in the MAC for 2021-22. Ohio is 10-1 in conference play while Toledo is 10-2. The conference leading Bobcats’ only loss to a MAC team this season came on January 21st, at home, and it was 87-69 to Toledo. The Rockets shot a blistering 59% that day in Athens. It is Ohio’s only home loss of the season and only loss period since Dec 1. Now they get a chance at revenge and can hand Toledo’s its first home loss. I’m taking the points in this one. 

Other than Toledo, the only other teams to defeat Ohio this season are LSU and Kentucky. So this is a very talented team. Since the loss to Toledo, the Bobcats have won five in a row, all by double digits. I love the idea of the better team, playing with revenge, getting points. A win here obviously gives the Bobcats a two-game cushion, but a loss would all but hand Toledo the regular season championship. So, like I said, this is a huge game for both teams. Ohio is 6-2 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss.

While Ohio is coming off three home wins in a five-day span, Toledo was upset on Friday, losing 93-83 at Ball State as nine-point favorites. That ended the Rockets’ nine-game SU and ATS win streak. They trailed by as many as 20 in the 1H. For this game, not only do I NOT think Toledo will be able to match its torrid shooting from the previous meeting, but you should look for Ohio to shoot a lot better from three-point range. In that first meeting, the Bobcats were just 8 of 29 (27.6%) on threes and for the season teams are shooting just 30.3% from behind the arc against Toledo. That’s pretty preposterous. 10* Ohio

8* Miami OH (7:00 ET): While the MAC will see its top two teams (Ohio and Toledo) battle on Tuesday, we’ve also got this matchup of the two bottom teams in the conference standings. There’s really no sugarcoating how miserable this season has been for both Western Michigan and Miami Ohio. The former is 4-19 straight up and has not won a game since 12/17 against Aquinas (non-board team). That’s 13 straight losses for the Broncos, who have only two wins against D-I opponents all season.

Meanwhile, despite losing five a row, Miami has been a bit better than WMU. They have three MAC wins. But the RedHawks’ problem has been the betting window where they have not covered a single game since the conference opener, 12/29 vs. Buffalo! It’s a 10-game ATS losing streak entering Tuesday. I can’t remember the last time I saw a drought longer than that. You might be wondering, given Miami’s ATS skid, how I could possibly consider laying this many points. Well, Western Michigan is just that bad. 

Miami won the first meeting 70-62, but (obviously) did not cover. They were 10-point favorites on the road. But we’re actually getting a GREAT number with them here at home as the line is basically unchanged (from the first meeting) despite the change in venue. Western Michigan has not won a single road game all season, losing all 11 by an average of 20.6 PPG. Miami was only 5 of 21 from three-point range in the first meeting. After B2B rough shooting games vs. Akron, the RedHawks will find their touch here against a downtrodden opponent whose L5 losses have all been by double digits. 8* Miami OH

10* Toronto (7:10 ET): Teams trending in different directions meet Monday in Charlotte. The Raptors are 5-0 SU/ATS their last five games while the Hornets are 1-4 SU/ATS. After four straight close wins, one when I took them against Chicago, the Raptors beat Atlanta 125-114 on Friday. That was their second win over a Hawks team that is 8-3 SU its last 11 games. Toronto shot 56.8% from the floor, including 17 of 27 from three-point range. They’ve climbed into the top six in the Eastern Conference standings.

Charlotte’s last two losses, to Cleveland and Miami, both occurred here at home. The Hornets held second half leads in both games, but really wilted Saturday vs. the Heat, eventually losing 104-86. Gordon Hayward was scoreless, on 0 for 7 shooting, in his second game back from an ankle injury. Let’s also not forget that Charlotte is dead last in the East in scoring defense, giving up 114.2 PPG. Thus, it’s a major concern that they are averaging just 96 PPG themselves over the last four contests.

These teams met two weeks ago, north of the border, and the Raptors won 125-113. It was another efficient offensive game as the Raptors shot 52.4% and made 16 threes. Look for them to continue to roll tonight. 10* Toronto

10* Navy (7:00 ET): I think that we’re getting a pretty good value here on the Midshipmen, who defeated Lafayette earlier this season, 69-55 as an eight-point road favorite. Having to lay an only slightly larger number with them at home, against the same opponent, seems like a steal. Now the Middies are just 2-6 ATS since beating Lafayette with four games decided by two points or less. But this is where they start to “set sail” again. They have the most conference wins (8) of any team in the Patriot League currently. 

Last week saw Lafayette win twice, but both games were at home. The Leopards were just 5-14 SU overall and 2-6 in conference play before picking up those two wins. Saturday’s victory over Bucknell went to OT and was decided on a layup with two seconds to go. Should be noted that Bucknell, who is in last place in the Patriot League, went just 8 of 19 from the free throw line in that game. Since November, Lafayette has just one road win and it came against American U, who is 6-16 SU this season. 

After suffering a shocking one-point loss to Lehigh last Wednesday, Navy bounced back with a one-point win over Loyola MD on Saturday. The team’s last three games have all been decided in the final 15 seconds and come down to the final possession. But I’m laying the points here because I expect a strong effort at the defensive end, as per usual from Navy, who allows just 60.3 PPG. Lafayette is shooting below 40% away from home this year and averaging just 61.8 points. 10* Navy

8* Virginia (7:00 ET): Duke is coming off a huge win, 87-67 over North Carolina, which was Coach K’s final trip to Chapel Hill. We know the Blue Devils are good, but by the time this game tips off (and the new rankings are out), I suspect they’ll be ranked a little higher than where I have them. The ACC is not particularly strong this year, as no other team in the conference is even ranked. But look out for Virginia in this spot as the Hoos have posted B2B wins and held three of their last four opponents under 60 points. 

This is clearly a “flat” spot for Duke, who just waxed its rival by 20 points on national television. Something to take note of with the Blue Devils is how poorly teams have shot against them. Opponents are hitting just 30% from three-point range and while some of the credit has to go to their length on the perimeter, a lot of these missed shots have been open looks. On the flip side, Duke just shot almost 58% against UNC. I just think these ridiculous shooting numbers are due for a “correction.” 

Virginia just shot 60% in an impressive double digit victory over Miami on Saturday. They won 71-58 despite allowing the ‘Canes to shoot 54%. As per usual, Tony Bennett’s team is playing very slow. They are dead last in the country in adjusted tempo, which is a great way to keep favored Duke in check here and limit the offensive damage. Five of the last seven Virginia-Duke games have been decided by two points or less. The underdog is on a 23-8-1 ATS run in this ACC rivalry. 8* Virginia

8* Hofstra (5:00 ET): UNC Wilmington has been one of the most surprising - and luckiest - teams in all of College Basketball this season. The Seahawks, despite recently taking their first conference loss, still lead the CAA with a 10-1 record. But they’ve gotten to the summit with a lot of “smoke and mirrors.” Prior to shooting almost 62% from the field against hapless William & Mary on Saturday, the Seahawks’ previous 12 wins over D-I competition had all been by eight points or fewer. Two of the wins required overtime while two others were by a combined three points. 

It’s not like UNC Wilmington is racing out to big leads and holding on either. Incredibly, they have trailed by double digits in NINE of their 14 wins over D-I opponents this year! That is preposterous. One of those nine occasions came against tonight’s opponent, Hofstra, who built a 15-point first half lead (on the road!) back on 1/29, only to lose 78-72 as a four-point favorite. The Pride only made 3 of 18 three-point attempts that day while UNCW was 10 of 27.

Hofstra is one of FIVE CAA teams rated higher than UNCW over at KenPom. Incredibly, neither the KenPom ratings nor my own consider the Seahawks a top 200 team in the country right now! The performance they turned in Saturday vs. W&M was NOT the norm. Last Thursday, they were beaten by 13 at Elon. Another area where UNCW has been extremely fortunate is free throws. Opponents are shooting just 68.8% from the charity stripe this season! Well, Hofstra is 80.7% there. The home team has had this one circled for two weeks. Lay the points. 8* Hofstra

9* Athletic Bilbao (3:00 ET): Athletic Club will try to continue to separate itself from the middle of the La Liga table. They’ve won four straight - across all competitions - including 1-0 over Real Madrid in Thursday’s quarterfinal of the Copa del Rey. But here in league play, Bilbao still sits only eighth with 31 points from 22 matches. A win Monday won’t move them up any, but it would bring them within four points of the top four as the race for the last two Champions League spots became a lot more interesting after this weekend. 

I’d say Athletic Club’s biggest issue this campaign has been poor luck when it comes to scoring goals. They’ve scored only 21 times, tied for fifth fewest in all of La Liga and the fewest of any side in the top half. But they are 31.65 in xG (expected goals), which is sixth most in the league! That gap between actual and xG is the biggest underachievement in any of Europe’s “Big 4” leagues. But on the bright side, they’ve conceded only 17 times, second fewest in the league and have kept B2B clean sheets. 

The opponent for matchweek 23 is Espanyol, who was promoted to the Spanish top flight this season and has done a reasonable job thus far of staying clear of the relegation zone (nine points clear). This will be their first time on the pitch since Jan 21, so they could be a bit rusty. Espanyol has gone three in a row w/o a victory and last picked up a win in late December. Leading goal scorer Raul de Tomas is going to have to sit this one out due to suspension, a significant blow.  9* Athletic Bilbao

10* Fresno State (7:00 ET): The Mountain West is a fairly strong league this season as you’ve got six quality teams, four of which are currently projected to be in the NCAA Tournament. Fresno State is currently on the WRONG side of the “bubble,” despite having the fourth best record in the conference. The Bulldogs are playing well right now as they’re off B2B blowout victories (by 30 and 17) and getting this key matchup vs. second place Wyoming at home is pretty huge. I’m laying the short number. 

When analyzing the top six in the MWC, what separates some from the herd is defense. Three of these teams are 24th or better in adjusted defensive efficiency and FSU is one of those three. (San Diego State and Boise State are actually both in the top seven with SDSU #1!). The Bulldogs are giving up only 57.5 PPG on the season and 54.5 at home (where they are 11-1 SU). In terms of scoring defense, FSU is top five NATIONALLY. They just don’t give up many points and I think that trend will continue tonight. 

Wyoming is only 108th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Right now, the Cowboys are running neck and neck with Boise State for first place (two back in the win column), but KenPom actually has Fresno State rated higher. The Pokes are coming off two huge wins, both at home, over Colorado State and Boise State. This feels like a letdown spot for them and the “glacial” pace at which Fresno plays at (third slowest in the country!) will give the road team problems in this one. Wyoming could easily be 0-4 in conference road games as both SU wins were by two points each. 10* Fresno State

10* Under Celtics/Magic (6:10 ET): Orlando, who has the worst record in the league, has seen a recent surge in scoring, both at the offensive and defensive ends of the floor. The team’s last five games have all gone Over the total. They’ve allowed an average of 118 PPG during this stretch, including 135 yesterday to Memphis, but it’s also been five straight games of them scoring 110+ points, which is rather abnormal for a team that’s 28th in the league at 103.3 PPG for the season. 

So what I’m saying is you should expect the Magic to start scoring less. Let’s start here, the second game of a back to back, a situation that sees them average only 100 PPG. They are facing a Boston team that’s won four in a row and six of its last seven. In five of those six wins, the Celtics have held their opponent below the century mark. In a previous visit to Orlando, which was pretty early in the season, the Celtics came here and won 92-79, holding the Magic to 32.1% shooting, including 9 of 43 from three-point range.

Boston’s four-game win streak is a season-high as they are now in 8th place in the Eastern Conference. They are actually tied for the fourth best point differential, so I’d expect them to continue climbing. This is a bit of a “tricky” spot though, as it’s an easy game to overlook with Brooklyn on deck. The Under is 4-0 in the Celtics’ last four road games as well as 6-1 their L7 games overall. It’s 7-0 when they are on the road and facing an opponent with a home winning percentage of less than .400. 10* Under Celtics/Magic

8* Philadelphia (3:40 ET): The 76ers have lost two in a row. These losses leave them fifth in the East, but only two games out of first. Tied for first (with Miami) is Chicago, but I’m not banking on the Bulls finishing atop the heap. Five teams, the Sixers among them, have better point differentials over the course of the season. You may recall that just recently (Thursday), I played against the Bulls when they went to Toronto. They lost there, 127-120 in overtime, as a 4.5-point dog. It was impressive that they were able to bounce back the following night and beat the Pacers 122-115 on the road. But I see a downturn coming. 

Five of the last six games have seen Chicago shoot better than 51% from the floor. That’s quite the stretch of hot shooting and in my view, it’s likely to subside. Something to take note of is the Bulls are tied for 19th in defensive efficiency and give up 109.7 points per game. So it’s been imperative that they shoot as well as they have. But if the hot shooting starts to curtail, then the lack of defense probably means trouble. Case in point; they’ve shot poorly in two losses to Philly this season. 

The last time these teams met was back in November, but the Bulls made only 40.2% of their FG attempts and lost 114-105 here at home. They also lost 103-98 in Philly two days prior. In the two losses, they’ve gone just 13 of 50 from three-point range. The Sixers got off to a hot start in Dallas Friday night, but scored only 35 points in the 2H, mostly facing a zone. I just think the Sixers are better (notable they’re favored!), especially seeing as the Bulls will probably be short-handed. Philly has beaten Chicago nine straight times. 8* Philadelphia

8* Maryland (1:00 ET): There was a time, earlier this season, that the Terrapins found themselves in the Top 25. I didn’t necessarily agree with that, so it’s not shocking (to me) that they’ve been a bit of a “middling” team. But they should be better than 3-8 SU in the Big 10. The Terps have lost a few close ones, most recently 65-63 to Michigan State on Tuesday, that have cost them. I like this spot for them as they are getting a lot of points and Ohio State could be rusty after a week-long layoff. Take the points. 

Ohio State hasn’t played since last Sunday when they lost 81-78 at Purdue. The reason for this latest layoff was actually inclement weather, not COVID, as Thursday’s scheduled game vs. Iowa had to be postponed. Don’t be fooled by the fact the Buckeyes only lost by three at Purdue last week as they actually trailed by as many as 20 points in that one. The team is a perfect 9-0 SU here in Columbus, but their last two conference games here were both decided by single digits. I expect a slow start from OSU this afternoon. 

More often than not, Maryland is competitive. Their two losses to ranked teams have been by a total of three points. They also beat Illinois (by 16!) a couple weeks ago. I like the fact that the Terrapins lead the conference in free throws made and are second in attempts. The team has actually been better on the road than at home, at least in Big 10 play, so far. "I'm excited. We've been playing well on the road," Terrapins guard Eric Ayala said. "I'm looking forward to going out there and competing at a high level."  8* Maryland

8* Wolfsburg (11:30 ET): If not here for Wolfsburg, then you’ve got to wonder “when?” Die Wolf, after finishing top four last season and thus qualifying for the Champions League, opened the 2021-22 Bundesliga campaign with four consecutive victories. But the bottom has since dropped out. They’ve won just twice in the previous 16 matches, losing 11. Not only have they failed to score a goal in six of their last seven league games - including each of the last four - but this season’s two top goal scorers are both unavailable. One left via the transfer window, the other sustained a broken ankle.

But Wolfsburg’s opponent on Sunday is Greuther Furth, who still sits at the foot of the Bundesliga table despite a four-match unbeaten run. Three of those results were draws, although they did shock Mainz 2-1 their last time on the pitch. Yet, the Cloverleaves are still eight points back of 19th place Stuttgart and 11 points adrift from safety. I am unconvinced that this side is capable of making any kind of run to avoid relegation, which seemed inevitable when they picked up only one point from the first 14 matches of the campaign.

With only two points separating them from the possibility of the relegation playoff, it is a must that Wolfsburg picks up all three points here. Relegation is something that was unthinkable when they started the year 4-0-0. There have been some new signings to help fill the goal scoring void with Max Kruse and Jonas Wind coming over from Union Berlin and Copenhagen, respectively. Kevin Paredas also came over from MLS. Wolfsburg defeated Furth 2-0 back in September. Look for another win here. 8* Wolfsburg

10* Under Borussia Dortmund/Bayer Leverkusen (9:30 AM ET): This clash of top three sides in the Bundesliga doubles as a pairing of the two that have overachieved the most in terms of goal scoring this season. In their previous match before the Winter Break, Dortmund ran away with a 3-2 win over Hoffenheim. Now I missed with the Under there, but the big news was star Erling Haaland being taken off with an injury in the 63rd minute. After his injury, the lone goal for BVB was a gift, an “own goal” by Hoffenheim. 

Still nursing a groin injury, it’s looking like a near certainty that Haaland will sit here. That’s really key to playing this fixture Under the total. So is the fact that the opposition, Bayer Leverkusen, has also greatly exceeded its number of xG (expected goals). For those who are unfamiliar, xG is the probability that a shot will result in a goal based on the characteristics of that shot and the events leading up to it. It’s a very reliable metric for how many goals a team SHOULD have scored. 

Dortmund has 52 goals scored on the second, second most in the Bundesliga (trailing only Bayern Munich). But their xG is 39.96. Similarly, Leverkusen has exceeded its xG total (38.32) by almost 11 goals. When these teams played the reverse fixture back in September, there were seven goals scored, but only on 24 shots and one was a penalty. Haaland scored twice, including the penalty. With the star talisman not on the pitch Sunday, now is the perfect time to call for regression and play the Under. 10* Under Borussia Dortmund/Bayer Leverkusen

10* Washington (7:05 ET): For the Suns and Wizards, the last month or so has gone quite differently. Phoenix has raced to the best record in the NBA at 41-10 SU while Washington has fallen off and is now three games below .500, outside the top 10 in the East. But this is a lot of points that the Wizards are getting at home tonight. They just won for us, upsetting Philadelphia on the road Wednesday, 106-103 as a 10.5-point underdog. The Suns are off their first loss in more than three weeks. This is a good spot to take the points. 

Now Washington’s only two wins since Jan 12 have both come against the Sixers. They also beat them 117-98 on Jan 17. That’s still the last time the Wizards won a home game. Let it be known though that four of their five straight losses in the Nation’s capital have been by five points or less. Bradley Beal may be out, but Kyle Kuzma stepped up with 24 points on Weds, leading five players in double figures. This team averages just over 110 PPG at home, so I’m not worried about the offense here. 

Phoenix just gave up 124 points in its loss to Atlanta Thursday. That ended an 11-game win streak. Everyone is going to be expecting the Suns to get back in the win column here, but this feels like a total “letdown” spot as they’ve got “bigger games” (at Chicago and Philadelphia) on deck. When these teams met earlier this year, Phoenix was favored by only nine at home. I believe the home dog will play surprisingly well in this spot. 10* Washington.

10* McNeese (5:00 ET): Gonna try again with McNeese (State), who let me down Thursday when they lost 83-78 to SE Louisiana. That was the Cowboys’ third straight loss, all of them coming at home, leaving them with a 8-15 SU record and way off the pace in the Southland. But this afternoon they’ll face a Northwestern State team that is due for a “nosedive” after winning its last three games, including a shocking performance Thursday where they shot 61.1% on the road. Lay the points in this one. 

There’s usually a lot of points when Northwestern State takes the floor. The Demons are off B2B 90+ point efforts, but what was so shocking about the last one wasn’t just the ridiculous shooting, it’s that they were previously 1-14 SU away from home. Therefore, it’s very difficult for me to envision them winning two road games in a three-day span. Defensively, the Demons are a disaster as they give up 80.7 PPG for the year and 85.9 when playing away from home. Thursday was actually their first “true” road win of the year; previously their only SU win away from home was a neutral site game vs. Incarnate Word.

McNeese has allowed 80+ points in each of the L3 games, but I expect them to score a lot tonight against this soft Northwestern State defense that is 347th nationally (out of 358 teams) in efficiency. Northwestern State made a season-high 17 three-pointers in their last game, so look for regression there, especially with McNeese likely to defend the arc better than they did vs. SE Louisiana. With the next four games all on the road, this is a MUST win for McNeese. 10* McNeese

10* Under Lazio/Fiorentina (2:45 ET): Lots of reasons to like the Under here. For starters, Fiorentina’s leading goal scorer (Dusan Vlahovic) has moved onto Juventus via the transfer window. That is a crushing blow for the Viola’s hopes of playing European football next season. Vlahovic had scored 17 of his club’s 41 goals this season while also creating 34% of their xG. No other player on the team has generated more than 0.5 xG per 90 minutes. Bottom line: expect this side to score a lot fewer goals moving forward.

No side in Serie A, or any of Europe’s “Big 5” leagues, has exceeded its xG more than Lazio. They’ve scored 46 times on 30.1 xG and that’s pretty ridiculous. Over the last seven matches alone, they’ve scored 14 goals despite an xG total of only 8.3. But signs of regression are there; last time on the pitch Lazio played to a goalless draw with Atalanta, a team whose fixtures almost always end up being high-scoring. So we’ve got every reason to believe both of these sides won’t be scoring much here.

This is a critical fixture for both as they enter Saturday tied for seventh with 36 points each. I’m not convinced either of them will make their way to European football for next season. But I am convinced about the regression in goal scoring. Lazio has kept three consecutive clean sheets, holding Atalanta, Napoli and Salernitana to zero goals. It was 1-0, in Lazio’s favor, when these teams met in Rome back in October. Fiorentina isn’t bad defensively either as they are tied for 7th in GA. 10* Under Lazio/Fiorentina

8* Michigan (2:30 ET): The Wolverines, who were once ranked as high as #4 in the country, are in dire need of a big win to bolster their resume. Juwan Howard’s team is currently 11-8 SU and 7th in the Big 10. The Big 10 is a loaded conference mind you, and I still consider the Maize and Blue among the top 30 in the country. Beating Purdue, the current #4 ranked team in the country, is precisely the win that Michigan needs right now. Not sure they can pull off the outright upset Saturday, but I’m definitely taking the points.

Purdue has won four in a row and will be facing Illinois (probably the Big 10’s second best team) on Tuesday. So they may not be taking their opponents all that seriously. If there is a “hole” in the Boilermakers’ resume, it is the fact they rank 91st in the country in defensive efficiency. Among teams in the KenPom Top 25, that’s easily the worst, with the exception of Iowa, who you’ll note is not in the “actual” Top 25 (AP/Coaches). I’m also not convinced the Boilermakers can continue their recent hot shooting. They made 55.6% against Minnesota and 61.2% at Iowa. 

Michigan has a top 20 offense in terms of efficiency and has some proverbial “momentum” after scoring the last six points of the game to defeat Nebraska 85-79 on Tuesday. That was a game where the Wolverines were down seven points at halftime and their season was very much “on the brink.” Note they have won in West Lafayette each of the last two seasons and are 8-0-1 ATS the L9 meetings overall. Purdue has not beaten Michigan since 2018! This is just the fourth time this season that Michigan has been a dog. 8* Michigan

8* Louisville (2:00 ET): It’s obviously been a very frustrating season for Louisville, who has already made a coaching change (fired Chris Mack) and continues to come up short in heart-breaking fashion. The last two games have seen the Cardinals go 0-2 ATS, despite being tied with Duke with seven minutes left in regulation and going to overtime against North Carolina. That leaves them an awful 1-10-1 ATS their L12 games, but the improved effort we’ve seen (since the coaching change) should continue here. 

Syracuse has put together a couple of high-scoring wins over the last week, beating Wake Forest and NC State. But it is highly unlikely that the Orange can continue shooting as well as they did in those two victories. They made 57.1% from the field against Wake Forest, then topped that with 59.3% against NC State. In the two games prior, the Orange averaged just 55 points in losses to Duke and Pitt. Now those losses were both on the road, but even at the Carrier Dome, the ‘Cuse won’t be able to match the three-point shooting of the last two games. 

Jim Boeheim’s team has made 21 of its last 38 3PA, which is pretty insane and simply not sustainable. Factoring in the likely offensive regression, and the fact the Orange simply aren’t that good defensively, this is a great spot to take the points. Syracuse ranks 237th in defensive efficiency (per KenPom), which is just horrible, and they give up 75.5 PPG. Look for the shots to start falling for L’ville, who has three players that shoot 36% or better from three-point range. 8* Louisville

8* Tulsa (2:00 ET): It’s been a tough season for Frank Haith and Tulsa, who are just 7-13 SU overall and 1-8 in conference play, leaving them last in the American. But the Golden Hurricane have been really unlucky, losing eight of their nine games that were decided by five points or less and opponents seemingly can’t miss from three-point range against them (37.7%!) But I like them here, getting points in a revenge spot, against a Temple team that’s had a lot of luck go its way. Time for a reversal of fortune. 

Temple has won five of six coming into Saturday, however four of those wins were by five points or less. The largest margin of victory during this run came last time out when the Owls beat East Carolina 71-63. This is a rare time that the Owls are favored; the last time they were chalk was against ECU on Jan 8 and they failed to cover the four point spread (won by three). Tulsa went off as a 3.5-point favorite in the first meeting, a game where Temple got a career-high 24 points from Nick Jourdain. My feeling is that this is a rare opportunity to fade a lucky team laying points. 

Since losing to Temple, Tulsa has lost by two to Houston (a very good team) and by two to Memphis (blew a 15-point lead). The Golden Hurricane are certainly better than their record and should shoot better here than they did at. Wichita State on Tuesday. There, they scored a season-low 18 points in the second half. They made only 6 of 23 from behind the arc in the first meeting with Temple, yet led by five in the second half. This team is due! Take the points. 8* Tulsa

8* Over Mercer/Chattanooga (12:00 ET): Chattanooga’s 80-72 loss to Samford earlier in the week (as 7-point favorites) dropped the Mocs out of first place in the SoCon, leaving them a half game back of Furman. They look to bounce back Saturday, at home, against third place Mercer. We’ve seen six straight games from Chattanooga with 71-78 points. That’s very consistent. They also come into Saturday averaging 80.0 PPG at home for the year. Leading scorer Malachi Smith struggled in the last game, but should bounce back here. 

Mercer has been far less consistent this year, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. The Bears are third worst in the SoCon in terms of defensive efficiency, ranking 276th nationally. That’s not good. I expect the Bears to really struggle to defend here against a team that’s making 39% of its three-point attempts at home. I realize that the last seven Mercer games have all stayed Under the total, but 12 of the previous 14 meetings with Chattanooga have gone Over. 

Smith is averaging 20.8 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game this season. Off a loss, he averages 26.5 points and 8.5 rebounds. In the loss to Samford, Smith only attempted ONE free throw and was 4 of 12 from the field. So, as I said earlier, look for a bounce back game from him this afternoon. Mercer has size issues and going against a Mocs team that has an excellent offensive rebounding percentage likely means trouble. I do think Mercer will put up a surprising number of points here as well. 8* Over Mercer/Chattanooga

8* Oklahoma City (10:10 ET): The Thunder obviously aren’t a very good team, but they are pesky. An underdog in all but two games this season, they have a 32-17 ATS record. That’s the top cover rate in the league. Despite not having leading scorer Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, the team has won its last two games - upsetting Portland and Dallas. It’s another matchup with Portland tonight, and don’t fall for the revenge angle. The Blazers are also not a very good team and are missing their top scorer (Damian Lillard).

It was a 98-81 OKC victory when these teams met Monday. Portland was playing the second night of a back to back after losing 130-118 in Chicago Sunday afternoon. They scored just 50 points over the final three quarters in the loss to the Thunder. Offense was again an issue on Wednesday (another time I played against them) when they fell 99-94 to the LeBron-less Lakers. Once again, in three of the four quarters, the Blazers were held to 22 points or less. This isn’t a good defensive team either; they rank bottom five in the league in points allowed. 

The loss to the Lakers also dropped Portland to 2-8 ATS this season following a game where they allowed fewer than 100 points. They’re back in that same situation again here. This spread is just too high for a team that’s being outscored by four points per game this season. Oklahoma City is 16-9 ATS on the road and 9-4 ATS when coming off a SU win as a dog. Luguentz Dort has averaged 25 points over the L3 games, filling in nicely for Alexander. 8* Oklahoma City

10* Under Bulls/Pacers (7:10 ET): So the Bulls have now gone Over in four straight games. The Pacers have gone Over in six straight games. Looking at these recent results, for both teams, there’s a clear surge in the number of points being scored & allowed vs. season averages. For a frame of reference, Bulls’ games have averaged 221.1 total points this season. That number has jumped to 240.6 over the L5 games! For Indiana, the season average is 220 pts on the nose, but 243.8 over the L5 games. 

Now I played against Chicago last night and that proved to be a winning move. They lost 127-120 up in Toronto, in OT, a brutal result as the Raptors tied the game with 0.7 seconds remaining in regulation. The Bulls did trail most of the game (by as many as 11). Obviously, the game going to overtime skews the final point total. The previous four games all saw Chicago shoot 51% or better from the floor. Can’t see that continuing. They were down to 47.8% last night. Zach LaVine, the team’s second leading scorer (24.7 PPG) could be rested tonight. The team is already without Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. 

The Pacers also have a number of players out, including Sabonis, Brogden, Turner, Bitadze and Brissett. So I’m not sure where the points will come from tonight. As of this writing, this is the highest O/U line for any Indiana game this season. They are 3-0 Under against the Bulls so far in 2021-22 and none of the three games saw more than 218 total points scored. This number is an overreaction to the abnormal amount of scoring we’ve seen from both teams recently. 10* Under Bulls/Pacers

10* Over Fairfield/Monmouth (7:00 ET): These teams met two weeks ago and it was a low-scoring game. Monmouth won 61-58, just barely covering the 2.5-point spread. Examining the Hawks’ results this season, one thing that jumps out to me is they score a lot more at home. They are averaging 76.6 PPG in their own gym, as opposed to just 67.3 elsewhere. The disparity became even more pronounced in January when they failed to top 62 (points) in any of their three road games. But they scored 85, 78, 72 and 69 in the four at home. 

With this being a home game, I expect Monmouth to put up a lot more points than they did the first time against Fairfield. The team’s last three games, all here at home, have been remarkably consistent with 140, 139 and 139 total points scored. This is among the lowest O/U lines set for one of their games all season. Only the last one, a 70-69 loss to Niagara (as 8-point chalk) was lower. That game went Over despite the Hawks only shooting 30% from the field. They’ll certainly shoot better than that tonight. 

Fairfield’s home vs. road splits are pretty consistent. Their games average almost 140 PPG, no matter where they’re at. The Stags’ two games since the loss to Monmouth both went Over as they beat Marist 69-66 and Rider 76-65 on the road. Of their last five games, the only one that would NOT have gone Over the current O/U line for this game was the one against Monmouth. The total for that game closed at 139.5, so I see value here. 10* Over Fairfield/Monmouth

6* Under Levante/Getafe (3:00 ET): So, as I’ve said before, Levante has been incredibly unlucky when it comes to conceding goals this La Liga season. That has played a significant factor in them being at the “foot of the table” (in last place) and facing a very serious chance of relegation for next season. The Frogs have allowed a league-high 43 goals this season. However, their number of xGA (expected goals allowed) is just 31.83. Per Understat, no side in any of Europe’s “Big 4” leagues has exceeded its xGA by a wider margin. 

Their last time out, I went with the Under on Levante and cashed that bet. They lost 2-0 to Cadiz. Now let’s point out how Levante has also scored the fifth fewest number of goals in La Liga this campaign. Losing to Cadiz was a real killer for their survival hopes as the Frogs now sit nine points adrift from where they need to be. This is another seemingly winnable fixture, but Getafe will also be keen on getting the full three (points) here, which would move them seven points clear of the relegation zone.

Fortunate for Levante is the fact Getafe is one of the four La Liga sides to have scored a fewer number of goals this season. The Deep Blue Ones have just 17 goals in their 22 league matches. Only Alaves has scored a lower number. With two of the bottom five scoring sides in the league facing off and Levante likely to start conceding less, Under is an easy call again here. Four of Getafe’s last five fixtures have ended up with one or zero goals scored. That includes a 0-0 draw with Real Sociedad before the Winter Break. 6* Levante/Getafe

10* Sacramento (10:10 ET): Though it’s the second game of a back to back and they’re facing the Warriors, I’m taking the Kings plus the points here. Last night, they defeated Brooklyn, at home, by a score of 112-101. While the Nets didn’t have Kevin Durant, both Kyrie Irving and James Harden suited up for them. The Kings didn’t have their leading scorer (De’Aaron Fox) or Marvin Bagley III in the lineup. So I’d say that was a pretty impressive win for them!

Golden State was very lucky to beat San Antonio on Tuesday. They sat virtually half the roster and were down 17 in the third quarter. Somehow, they pulled off an improbable rally to win 124-120. It was the seventh straight win for the Warriors, however note that four of those have been by four points or fewer. Though Curry, Thompson and Wiggins are all expected to play tonight, several other contributors (including Draymond Green) remain out. Knowing they have the next three days off, the Dubs may not give this one their full attention. 

Sacramento is desperate to make the playoffs this year, even if it’s simply a play-in game. They have the longest active postseason drought in the league. Before beating the Nets last night, the Kings had lost seven in a row and 12 of 14. They can’t afford another bad performance. Do I think they win this game outright? Probably not. But I do see them keeping it close as the Warriors are 1-4 ATS coming off a win where they were the underdog. 10* Sacramento

10* McNeese (8:30 ET): So McNeese is in dire need of a win here after two straight losses, both here at home. The Cowboys had the halftime advantage Saturday against New Orleans, the team that leads the Southland Conference. But they couldn’t hold on, surrendering 46 points in the second half. That was a tough loss as McNeese allowed UNO to hit three three-pointers the entire game. But the Privateers were 25 of 28 from the free throw line. I can’t see McNeese dropping a third straight game at home. 

Especially not with the revenge angle in play here. The Cowboys lost to SE Louisiana 83-78, back on January 7th. That was a unique situation as both teams were in the midst of playing three days in a row and it was a neutral site game. SE Louisiana shot 50% overall and 13 of 23 from three-point range, a performance I can’t see them duplicating tonight as the Lions are just 2-8 SU in “true” road games. Then there is the matter that they are allowing nearly 80 PPG away from home this season. 

SE Louisiana enters this rematch off a 78-68 home win over Incarnate Word. That’s the worst team in the conference. They were down a point at halftime and needed a career-day (29 points) from Keon Clergeot to pull out the victory. Also, playing at home, the Lions enjoyed a massive edge in free throw attempts (+24). I really like how the situation sets up here for McNeese, who should be extremely motivated tonight. 10* McNeese

8* Toronto (7:40 ET): The Raptors have some scores to settle tonight. They’ve lost to the Bulls twice this season, 111-108 (here at home) back in October and 111-105 last week in Chicago. But since that second loss to the Bulls, Toronto has rattled off three straight impressive victories, including 110-106 over Miami on Tuesday. Yes, the Raptors certainly appeared to take advantage of the fact Miami was playing for a fourth time in five nights. But Gary Trent Jr has been a “man on a mission,” scoring 30+ points in each of the last five games (had 33 vs. the Heat). 

Toronto is now eighth in the Eastern Conference. Like the six teams ahead of them, they are chasing the Bulls, who lead the conference with a 32-18 overall record. But I don’t see Chicago holding onto that top spot for much longer. They are actually sixth in the East in point differential. The Bulls have shot incredibly well each of the L4 games (54.8%, 52.3%, 55.6% and 51.1%). But I’m not sure they can count on that hot shooting to continue. The Raptors are pretty solid defensively, at least at home where they allow just 104.5 PPG. 

The last time these teams met, Toronto was in the second night of a back to back. This time, they have rest and are at home. The Bulls have given up more points than they’ve allowed on the road this year and the last time they played on the road, they gave up 130 to the Spurs. Going back to the start of December, they have just ONE road win by more than four points. The Raptors are 8-2 ATS their L10 games as a home favorite. 8* Toronto

8* Under Heat/Spurs (8:40 ET): Miami has now gone Over in six consecutive contests following Tuesday’s 110-106 loss up in Toronto. This feels like a streak that’s “due” to end and I also can’t see San Antonio shooting as well as it did (55%) two nights ago vs. Golden State. Therefore, it certainly seems as if we’ve got the “perfect recipe” for an Under tonight in the Alamo. 

The Spurs must be kicking themselves after letting ANOTHER lead slip away against the Warriors. Few teams have been less “clutch” than SA this season and what was especially painful about blowing the 17-point lead and losing Tuesday was that the Warriors were without all their star players (No Curry, Thompson, Green or Wiggins). And they (SA) shot 55% from the floor and made 16 threes! The problem was letting the Dubs sink 20 threes. I just see things being much more low-scoring here tonight. 

Part of that is Miami not being at full-strength either. The Heat have lost three in a row and averaged only 99 PPG in the last two. Kyle Lowry is expected to miss his 10th straight game tonight and Jimmy Butler is questionable as well. For the Spurs, Dejounte Murray (best player) is listed as questionable. So some key contributors MAY be sitting this one out. Regardless, look for the Heat to get back to playing defense and their parade of Overs to end. 8* Under Heat/Spurs

8* LA Lakers (10:40 ET): Just as Anthony Davis returned, the Lakers lost LeBron James. It’s been “that kind of season” in Tinseltown as the Lakers are three games below .500 and in ninth place in the Western Conference. They’d gotten back to the Mendoza line (.500) a week ago when they beat Brooklyn 106-96. But after that it’s been three straight losses where every opponent has shot better than 50%. The Hawks shot 58.3% against LA in a game that ended up being 129-121 on Sunday. 

But tonight the Lakers are back at home and I think this one should go well. The team they are facing, Portland, is a pretty horrid 7-17 SU on the road and just got beat in OKC, 98-81 as a four-point favorite. The Blazers are 2-7 straight up and 1-8 against the spread when coming off an outright loss as a favorite this season. They too are dealing with injuries. Damian Lillard is out as are Cody Zeller and Larry Nance Jr. 

The Lakers have covered each of the last four times they’ve been off an ATS loss. They did not cover against the Hawks, just missing out as 7.5-point dogs. I think Davis should have his way here against a Portland team that gives up 113.7 PPG on the road. Defensively, the Lakers should start to improve as well. It can’t get any worse than it did vs. Atlanta. The Blazers scored just 50 points over the final three quarters vs.  the Thunder, who were playing without their leading scorer. Lay the points. 8* LA Lakers

8* Under Magic/Pacers (7:10 ET): This is the second game of a back to back for Orlando, who were 126-115 losers in Chicago Tuesday night. They shot well, particularly in the first half where they made 56% of their field goal attempts. The problem is the Magic couldn’t play any defense; they allowed the Bulls to score 103 points in the first three quarters, so even a late fourth quarter rally proved futile. 

Defending Indiana should be a bit easier. As many as seven Pacers could sit this one out. Five definitely will, including leading scorer and rebounder Domantas Sabonis, who entered health and safety protocol on Monday. In addition to Sabonis, Indiana is without Brogdon, McConnell, Turner and Warren. They did score 122 pts in a win over the Clippers on Monday, but I just can’t see that happening again with all these notable absences. Monday saw the Pacers shoot 52.6% from the floor, their highest percentage in any game in over three weeks. They were also 14 of 29 from three-point range, also unlikely to be repeated here. 

Indiana, like Orlando, would like to see its defensive numbers start to improve. That should happen tonight. Over their last five games, all of which have gone Over, the Pacers have given up 126.6 PPG. This is well above their season average of 110.8 PPG. Tonight, they face a Magic team that has been scoring at a 112.6 PPG clip its last five contests, but that is well above their own season average of 102.8 PPG. For the year, Orlando is 28th in the league in scoring. The Under is 6-1 the last seven times they’ve played without rest and they average just 98.1 PPG in that situation. 8* Under Magic/Pacers

10* Washington (7:10 ET): The Wizards have been in a real “rut” of late, losing six in a row. Things have been even more disastrous at the betting window with them not only failing to cover in each of those six straight losses, but also 12 of the last 13 games overall. Perhaps we all should have seen this downfall coming; the Wizards had been winning a lot of close games early on. They actually have the third worst point differential in the Eastern Conference, ahead of only lowly Orlando and Detroit. 

But tonight the Wiz are finally getting plenty of “help” (points) from the oddsmakers and I think it’s a good time to take them. Yes, they are currently without leading scorer Bradley Beal. But for 3+ quarters, they hung with the Bucks last night, even taking the lead with just under nine minutes to go. It was a one-point game with only five minutes left, but the Wizards scored only four points after that. It was a pretty brutal ATS loss. Of course, nothing like the previous Tuesday when they blew a 35-point lead and lost to the Clippers. 

I just think it’s time for Washington to punch a winning ticket. Philadelphia may be on a five-game win streak, but only one of those wins have been by greater than 10 points and the last two have been by a combined five points. The Wizards last win came against the Sixers, by 19 points. Philly is coming off a 122-119 win over Memphis, and Joel Embiid did not play, but they are 2-7 ATS this season off a SU win as a dog. The last time in that situation was when they faced Washington! Take the points here. 10* Washington

8* UNC Asheville (6:30 ET): The Big South currently belongs to Longwood, who are 7-0 SU in conference play. The Lancers just beat the other division leader, Winthrop, on Saturday by a score of 92-88. They got a career-high 29 points from leading scorer Justin Hill, but still only covered the spread by half a point. There aren’t too many teams left with unbeaten conference records, in all of College Basketball, and this is one I expect to lose sooner rather than later. Longwood’s unbeaten run likely ends here. 

UNC Asheville looks to be the team to knock Longwood off its perch. The Bulldogs are coming off a one-point win over Presbyterian on Saturday, which got them back to .500 (4-4 SU) in conference play. It’s been a series of close calls for UNC Asheville, whose last six games have all been decided by six points or less. They are just 2-4 SU in those games. But getting the Big South’s top team, at home, should lead to some massive motivation, especially with the Bulldogs having lost three straight at home - all as favorites. 

With the exception of a blowout win over Hampton, all of Longwood’s conference wins have been close. They allowed 61 points in the second half against Winthrop, a scary sign. Also, the Lancers have a losing road record this year. Scoring drops to 71.7 PPG (on 42.7% shooting) away from home. UNC Asheville is putting up 81.9 PPG at home and we should be getting their best effort here. Defensively, they are holding teams below 40% shooting at home this year. Take the points as the Bulldogs are already 6-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. 8* UNC Asheville

10* Abilene Christian (6:00 ET): Abilene Christian is “middle of the pack” in the WAC this year with a 5-5 conference record. But while they have won each of their last three games straight up, the Wildcats continue to struggle at the betting window as they are just 1-7 ATS their last eight games. Prior to the current three-game win streak, the team had dropped five a row. But the wins have come against the bottom three teams in the WAC and now they face Chicago State, who also is very bad. It seems like a big number, but I’m laying it. 

While Chicago State may be ahead of two teams (UTRGV and Lamar) in the WAC standings and tied with Cal Baptist, I've got them rated as the worst team in the conference. The Cougars did beat Cal Baptist by two at home and then upset Lamar on the road a couple weeks ago. But that’s it for wins in conference play. The fact they were 7.5-point underdogs to Lamar should tell you what the oddsmakers think of them. Each of the Cougars’ last two games were 14-point losses and they surrendered 101 points to Utah Valley State. 

Abilene Christian has been putting up some nice point totals of late. They’ve averaged 83 PPG during the win streak and 80.9 PPG at home for the season. They only give up 59.5 PPG at home. Now some of that is skewed due to facing non-DI teams, but Chicago State is close to the bottom of the barrel when it comes to D-I.  The Wildcats have been favored in most of their WAC games and when you analyze the numbers, all signs point to a big blowout here. 10* Abilene Christian

10* St. John’s (9:00 ET): This line speaks volumes. Providence is the #15 ranked team in the country right now, but getting points from an 11-8 St. John’s team that has a losing record in Big East play. But, as has been well-documented in the past, the Friars are vastly overrated. Yes, they have an 18-2 SU record. But KenPom calls them the luckiest team in America this season (7-0 SU in games decided by five points or less) and my own power ratings don’t even consider them a top 45 team in the country!

St. John’s has already faced Providence once this year. It was when Providence was on the heels of an 88-56 loss to Marquette. The Johnnies started strong, taking a three-point lead into the break. But it was not to be as Providence rallied in the 2H for an 83-73 win and cover. A big difference in that game was that St. John’s was just 8 of 17 from the free throw line while Providence was 26 of 30. Don’t expect that discrepancy to repeat itself now that the Johnnies are the home team.

Providence’s last two wins have been by a total of five points, over Xavier and Marquette, the latter being a big revenge spot for them. It was a buzzer-beater that lifted them over Xavier and against Marquette they rallied from a six-point halftime deficit. Now it’s St. John’s that’s playing with revenge and the Red Storm are a much different team at home where they’ve gone 10-2 SU this season and averaged 83.1 PPG. Expect a much better effort at the offensive end here, than what we saw Saturday at Villanova where the Red Storm went just 4 of 21 from three-point range. Leading scorer Julian Champagne is the key and will play better here, compared to the first meeting with Providence when he finished with only 11 points on 5 of 19 shooting. 10* St. John’s

10* Under Nuggets/T’Wolves (8:10 ET): Both of these teams have been scoring a lot more than usual of late. The result of that has been plenty of Overs. Denver is 9-1 Over in its last 10 games, the lone Under taking place in a matchup with the offensively inept Pistons. Minnesota has seen the Over hit in seven of its last eight games. But I can’t see the Nuggets shooting 60% from the field again, as they did in Sunday’s 136-100 beatdown of Milwaukee. Nor can I see the T’wolves shooting 55% again, as they did in their own blowout victory on Sunday (126-106 over Utah). Time for an Under here. 

When these teams met in Denver back in December, the final score ended up being a 124-107 road win for the Timberwolves. They shot 51.1% from the floor and made 23 three-pointers. Don’t see that being duplicated tonight. Interesting to note that the O/U line is several points higher than it was for the last meeting (224.5). This despite Nikola Jokic and Minnesota’s third leading scorer, D’Angelo Russell, both being listed as questionable for tonight’s game. 

The key for the T’wolves tonight could be their defense. They are simply much more stingy at home where they allow only 104.8 PPG as opposed to 116.0 on the road. That’s a massive difference. With some key players questionable and both teams likely to cool off from behind the arc, look for this one to stay Under the total. The Under is also 8-3 in Denver’s last 11 road games. 10* Under Nuggets/T’Wolves

8* Kansas (7:00 ET): I have not been a believer in Iowa State this season. The Cyclones started the year a perfect 12-0, which was a remarkable turnaround from a 2020-21 season that saw them finish 2-22 SU. But after opening the year with 12 straight wins, ISU has since dropped five of their last nine games. Big 12 play continues to be a “bugaboo.” They’ve lost 23 of their last 26 conference games, even though two of the three wins have come in the last two games. It’s time to fade them on Tuesday. 

Kansas is the benchmark in the Big 12. But stepping outside of conference play resulted in the Jayhawks getting “smacked in the mouth” Saturday as they were beaten soundly, 80-62 by Kentucky, at Allen Fieldhouse. KU had been “living dangerously” prior to that with four of their last five wins coming by three points or less. One of those close calls was against Iowa State, 62-61. Interestingly, the Jayhawks were 13-point favorites for that game. I know this one is in Ames, but it looks like we’re getting some decent value on the chalk. 

Kentucky is simply a much better team than Iowa State, so I’m not overly concerned about what happened on Saturday. Yes, the Jayhawks have just one win by more than three points going back to January 4th. But I still consider them a Top 10 team in the country. Iowa State is not even in my Top 25, or even Top 40, so consider them overrated by the pollsters. One of the Cyclones’ Big 12 wins was in OT and another by just four over Texas Tech. They simply aren’t in Kansas’ class. 8* Kansas

8* Connecticut (6:30 ET): This looks to be a good spot to lay the points with UConn, who is on a five-game win streak and up to #17 in the latest polls. This “resurgence” by the Huskies really isn’t all that surprising; I’ve had them in the Top 20 of my own power rankings for a while now, plus it’s St. John’s, Georgetown, Butler (twice) and DePaul that they’ve beaten during this win streak. Creighton isn’t very good either though and this should be yet another UConn blowout. 

It’s a triple revenge spot for UConn here as they lost three times to the Bluejays last season, the final meeting coming in the Big East Tournament. But they’re catching “the birds” wounded here as Creighton just blew a 17-point halftime lead and lost to Xavier over the weekend. The Bluejays ended up losing by 10, so that was a 27-point swing in the second half - at home. Not good. The previous game saw them lose by 17 at Butler, also a less than inspiring result. Over its L3 games, Creighton has averaged just under 60 PPG.

That’s not good when facing a UConn team that is putting up 83.9 PPG at home this season. The Huskies have been a dominant home team, outscoring their visitors by an average of 24.5 PPG this season. My own power rankings say they should be a much larger favorite here and an early line move seems to concur with that assessment. Connecticut is on a 19-8 ATS run when off a conference win and a Creighton team that shoots just 30% from three-point range isn’t going to be able to keep up here. 8* Connecticut

8* Portland State (10:30 ET): Portland State, a five-win team out of the Big Sky, is probably NOT an outfit you’ve had your eye on lately. But I think the Vikings have been somewhat undervalued. They went 2-0 ATS last week, covering the spread in a three-point loss to Southern Utah and then going to Northern Arizona and winning 97-76 as a two-point dog. That win snapped a five-game losing streak and was probably PSU’s most impressive performance to date. Let it also be known that three of the four games the Vikings had lost before that were by five points or less. 

It’s been more than two months since Portland State last won a home game, which is truly incredible when you think about it. Back in early November, at the start of the year, they picked up a pair of wins over non-board teams. Since then, they’ve lost seven in a row at the Peter W. Stott Center. I think they’ve got a GREAT chance at breaking that streak here tonight. The Vikings are hosting a Northern Colorado team that’s been a bit more “lucky” than “good” this season and is coming off an 86-75 loss to Weber State. 

While Northern Colorado last played on Thursday and Portland State’s win over Northern Arizona was Saturday, I’m still taking the points here as the visitors are giving up 78.8 PPG away from home this year, which is just not good when laying points. I was a little surprised to see that the Bears have been road favorites four times previous to this, but they lost one of the four outright and two of the three SU wins were by a combined seven points. Take the points. 8* Portland State

10* San Diego State (10:00 ET): The last time I went with San Diego State, things turned out rather well. Not only did the Aztecs (-2) hand Colorado State its first defeat of the season, they did so in emphatic fashion, winning 79-49 here at home. Since that time, however, the Aztecs have stumbled. They turned in a woeful 37-point performance against Boise State (but still only lost by five). Then, last week, they went out to Utah State and lost 71-57 as a 1-point favorite. The Aztecs are now fourth in the Mountain West and really lagging behind the top three teams (Boise, Wyoming, Colorado State). 

But it should be an easy win Monday as SDSU hosts New Mexico. Other than the 28% shooting night against Boise, the Aztecs have not lost at home all season. They are a perfect 4-0 straight up this year following a game where they were held to 60 points or less. Defensively, SDSU remains one of the top teams in the country (4th in defensive efficiency per KenPom). As long as they can get the shots to fall tonight, it will be a blowout.

The fact that New Mexico gives up 84.6 PPG away from home is a positive sign. The Lobos were 86-70 winners Friday night, but that was at home against San Jose State, the last place team in the conference. Prior to that win, the Lobos had lost seven in a row. San Diego State has had more time to prepare for this game as they last played on Wednesday. The last time the Aztecs were at home, they won by 25 over UNLV. Look for this to be a rout. 10* San Diego State

10* Golden State (8:10 ET): The Warriors seem to have hit their stride again, winning their last five games. Those five victories have come by an average of 11 PPG, which is basically what the oddsmakers are calling for tonight. While that average margin of victory is somewhat skewed because of a 130-92 blowout of Dallas last week, the Dubs should have little difficulty blowing out a downtrodden Houston team that is playing without starting PG Kevin Porter Jr. The Rockets have lost 10 in a row at home, the last two coming by a combined 45 points. 

Golden State was able to down Brooklyn 110-106 Saturday night in a marquee matchup. Now the Nets did not have either Kevin Durant or James Harden, which made the task a lot easier for the Warriors. But the Warriors’ cold shooting and having only 10 players suit up kept that game close. I really think we’re due for a “big” Steph Curry game as he’s failed to hit his season average of 25.7 PPG in four of the last five games. He’s shooting 36.9% in January, which is odd. 

The Warriors can always seem to rely on their defense, which leads the league in scoring, giving up only 102.0 PPG. The Rockets are at the opposite end of the spectrum, giving up a league-high 116.8 PPG. This happens to be a matchup of my #1 ranked vs. #29 ranked team in the power ratings. So it’s about as big of a mismatch as you can have. I know that it ended up being just a two-point game when these teams met ten days ago in San Francisco. But Curry didn’t make a single shot until 48 seconds were left in the first half and Klay Thompson sat that game out. Lay the points tonight. 10* Golden State

8* Over Colorado/Washington State (10:00 ET): Wazzu started out the season by going Over the total in each of the first five games. Since then, the Under is 11-2 their last 13 games. They’ve gone Over in just one game during the month of January, but that was against tonight’s opponent, Colorado. That game ended up as an 83-79 final, in favor of the Buffaloes. It was the first game for CU in nearly three weeks because of COVID-19. Washington State had been off for two weeks for the same reason. 

The Cougars didn’t even have Noah Williams in that first meeting and he is the team’s second leading scorer. Shooting was not particularly outrageous from either side. So, yes, I think the teams are capable of going Over another low total on Sunday night. Eventually, Washington State’s shooting in conference play is bound to improve. They are making only 39% of their FG attempts against Pac 12 opposition, which is really bad. The shots have to start falling, sooner or later, and at least they’re at home tonight where they scored 71 points last time out (despite shooting only 36.9%) in a win over Utah.

Wazzu won that last game, rather handily, as it also held the Utes to 54 points on 39.1% shooting. Defense has not been a problem for the Cougs, but when they last faced CU, they allowed 51% shooting. Colorado shot a dreadful 34% overall in Thursday’s 60-58 loss to Washington. They were rather lucky the game ended up so close as UW was just 4 of 17 from three-point range and 8 of 17 from the free throw line. I think we’ll be getting some points tonight! 8* Over Colorado/Washington State

10* LA Rams (6:30 ET): So the 49ers swept the regular season series and have now beaten the Rams six straight times (while going 5-1 ATS). I actually had the Niners in both regular season matchups. The first time they were 3.5 point underdogs at home on MNF. That was the game that really turned around their season. San Fran was just 3-5 SU at that time and hadn’t won a home game in more than a year. They ended up prevailing rather easily, 31-10. The second meeting had far more importance as this time the Niners needed to win to make the playoffs. That’s why I took them plus the points and it ended up being a 27-24 outright win in overtime. 

While the Niners were deserved winners here in LA back in Week 18 (ended up +184 in total yards), allow me to remind you that the Rams led 17-0 at halftime. It is the only time during his head coaching tenure that Sean McVay lost a game when leading at the break (45-0). The 49ers again rallied from a halftime deficit in the Divisional Round, ousting the top seeded Packers on a last second field goal, 13-10. But remember that wouldn’t have been possible without returning a blocked punt for a TD in the 4Q. I’m aware that the Niners have been real “road warriors” in recent years, but their luck is about to run out here. 

Let’s start with the fact that no team has won four straight games, all on the road, without a bye since 1961. Teams in the playoffs that are playing their fourth consecutive road game are 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS. I think the 49ers were a little lucky to prevail against both Dallas (who had bad clock management) and Green Bay (gained only 212 total yards). The Rams have been far more impressive in their two playoff wins, routing Arizona 34-11 and taking a 27-3 lead at Tampa Bay. I find it very hard to believe that the Rams would lose a seventh straight time to the Niners. They didn’t have anything to really play for the last time. Jimmy G remains a liability for a team that easily could have lost all of its last three games. Lay the points. 10* LA Rams

10* Portland (3:40 ET): I faded Chicago on Friday night and got a win from San Antonio. The Bulls now are set to face a Western Conference team with a slightly better record than the Spurs and that’s Portland, who already beat them once this season, 112-107 back in November. Despite not having top scorer Damian Lillard, the Blazers are fighting their way back up the Western Conference pecking order. They’ve won five of seven on the road and I don’t see them getting blown out here. Take the points. 

As I said in Friday’s analysis, Chicago’s point differential is only seventh best among Eastern Conference teams. So do not be surprised if they fall down a few spots in the standings. Injuries and COVID have been a factor for them this month. While the Bulls’ record at home remains solid, they have struggled defensively as they just allowed 131 points in the loss to the Spurs. Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso remain out, so they are still short-handed. The team is 0-2 SU this season after allowing 130+ pts last game.

The Blazers are getting contributions from a wide variety of players right now. Three players scored 25 or more points in Friday’s 125-110 win at Houston. It was the team’s third straight win away from home. Obviously, Houston isn’t very good, but the Blazers have also won at Boston and Toronto recently. They’ve covered the previous six trips to the Windy City and right now a case could be made that they are playing better basketball than the Bulls. Since 1/9, Portland is 7-4. Chicago is 4-8. 10* Portland

9* Under Bengals/Chiefs (3:00 ET): These teams met in the regular season and it quickly turned into a shootout with the Bengals eventually coming out on top, 34-31 as 3.5-point underdogs. But that game took place in Cincinnati. I don’t see these young upstarts beating KC twice in the same season. There’s only been one instance of Chiefs QB Mahomes losing twice to the same team in the same season. I also don’t think this game will be as high scoring as the original. 

The O/U line closed at 51.0 for the regular season meetings. It’s predictable that the number for the rematch is a few points higher and that the majority of bettors are on the Over. Especially since the last seven Chiefs’ games have all gone Over. But, every Bengals game since the win over the Chiefs has gone Under the total. They could barely muster 300 total yards against the Raiders in the Wild Card Game and the offense frequently fizzled against a defense that was last in red zone efficiency. Last week, the Bengals managed only one touchdown in the win over the Titans and got 10 points off turnovers, including the GW FG.

On the bright side, one of two touchdowns allowed by the Bengals’ defense last week came on a short field. Stopping Mahomes will obviously be more difficult. But - with just two minutes left in regulation against the Bills - the Chiefs had “only” 26 points. The Cincinnati defense is only allowing 16.9 PPG on the road, which is why the Under is 7-2 in those games (just 42.3 PPG total scored). The Chiefs allow only 19.5 PPG at home where the total number of PPG scored is 48.5. I see value with the Under here. 9* Under Bengals/Chiefs

8* Kansas City (3:00 ET): These teams met in the regular season and it quickly turned into a shootout with the Bengals eventually coming out on top, 34-31 as 3.5-point underdogs. But that game took place in Cincinnati. I don’t see these young upstarts beating KC twice in the same season. There’s only been one instance of Chiefs QB Mahomes losing twice to the same team in the same season. The loss to the Bengals is the only time KC has gone down since early November and they’ve put up 42 points in each playoff win. 

The Bengals have done well as underdogs this season, but KC is just the 11th team in the Super Bowl era to be favored in each of its first 19 games. The last four have all gone on to the Super Bowl. This will be the 13th consecutive time the Chiefs have been favored to win in the playoffs, the last 10 all coming with Mahomes as QB, a stretch that has seen the team go 7-3 ATS. They are 4-1 ATS when favored by at least four points, as they are here. 

Cincy just has the feeling of a “public dog” in this spot. They deserve kudos for making it thus far, but also beat a subpar Raiders team in the Wild Card Round, then arguably the weakest #1 seed we’ve ever seen (Tennessee) last weekend. Kansas City beat a subpar Pittsburgh team in Wild Card Weekend, but then ousted the #1 team in my power rankings (Buffalo) last week. The Chiefs’ offense has averaged 7.5 yards per play in the two playoff wins! The Bengals have actually been outgained on a per play basis in both of their playoff wins. Lay the points. 8* Kansas City

8* Washington (8:10 ET): The Wizards have had three full days to get over the meltdown against the Clippers, which saw them blow a 35-point lead and lose 116-115. It’s tough times in the Nation’s Capital right now as the Wiz have lost four in a row and are on the precipice of falling out of the top ten in the Eastern Conference. Three of those four losses have been by four points or less, two by a single point each. Now some would call that “comeuppance” after their rash of close victories to start the season.

Things are even more dire at the betting window where Washington is just 1-10 its last 11 games. However, they have gone off as the favorite in all but three of those 11 contests. Their lone cover in this stretch came as an underdog, when they beat Philadelphia 117-98. Rested, they are getting points here against a Memphis team that has been hot, but also is playing without rest. 

The Grizzlies won again last night, beating Utah 119-119. It was their second straight win after a five-game stretch where they went just 2-3 straight up. There haven’t been many losses for Memphis the last two months as they are 25-7 SU L32 games, including 11-3 SU and ATS this month. But this is a tough spot against a motivated team. Look for the visitors to at least keep within the number, or possibly take the game outright. Take the points. 8* Washington

10* Over Celtics/Pelicans (7:05 ET): Both of these teams played last night and did not shoot the ball well. So they’re also both coming off a loss. Boston went down by a score of 108-92 at the hands of Atlanta. The Celtics missed 12 of their first 13 three-point attempts in the game and finished 9 of 34 from behind the arc. They also missed 12 of their first 16 field goal attempts in the fourth quarter. New Orleans was a horrendous 5 of 34 from three-point range, and 38.9% overall, in its 116-105 home loss to Denver on Friday. 

So what I am saying, right off the bat here, is that you should anticipate BOTH teams shooting better tonight than they did on Friday. Boston had just scored 128 in its last win and that was without even shooting all that well. It’s a three-game Under run coming into tonight, but that’s also because the Celtics’ two previous opponents (before Atlanta) were just horrific shooting the ball. I don’t think they can count on holding New Orleans to 35% or less as they did to Washington and Sacramento. 

New Orleans’ last three games have all gone Over with them allowing 113, 117 and 116 points. For the year, they are giving up 110 PPG. So there’s more reason to expect Boston is going to have a bounce back game offensively. As for the Pelicans, they could be getting at least one of their top two scorers back. Regardless, these teams will combine to shoot MUCH better than 31% from three-point range, which was the number they were at when they met in Boston earlier this month. 10* Over Celtics/Pelicans

10* Illinois (4:30 ET): The Fighting Illini survived a scare on Tuesday, holding off #10 Michigan State for a 56-55 win. It was a game they led by double digits at the half, despite being without two of their top players. Kofi Cockburn could be back today while Andre Curbelo (COVID) is less likely to return. Both players are officially listed as questionable as of this writing. What I do know is that the Illini, in order to preserve their Top 25 ranking, can not afford a slip up here against Northwestern. 

I’ve got Illinois rated as the second best team in the Big 10 this year, only behind Purdue. The Illini are currently tied with Wisconsin for first place with a 7-2 SU conference record. They haven’t covered any of the last three games, but one of those was an OT loss to Purdue. This is a short number we’re dealing with here, and while I usually stay away from road favorites, the fact is Northwestern (Illinois’ opponent) is coming off a slew of disappointing setback and may have little left “in the tank” on Saturday. 

Six of N’western’s seven Big 10 losses have come by eight points or fewer, including 72-70 at Michigan on Wednesday. That was a game that saw the Wildcats only lead briefly after a late run in the second half. As many close calls as they’ve had, N’western is just 2-6 ATS vs. Big 10 teams thus far. They have struggled defensively, giving up an average of 78.0 points the L5 games. Even a possibly undermanned Illinois team can come into Evanston and win. They are 17-5 ATS L22 trips here. 10* Illinois

8* Alabama (4:00 ET): This is a spot I couldn’t wait to jump on. Most will see Baylor, the defending National Champion, laying a short number on the road and want to lay the points. But give me Alabama, an underrated team that’s off a bad loss. The Crimson Tide still rank in the Top 20 of my power ratings, even after losing to Georgia (as a 15.5-point favorite) on Tuesday. They’ve beaten both Houston and Gonzaga this year and only lost by four to Auburn. I love the Tide getting points in Tuscaloosa. 

Bama is on a six-game ATS losing streak coming into this game, after the bad loss to UGA earlier this week. That’s not the first time a loss to the Bulldogs has angered the Alabama fan base this month. But this was the basketball team’s worst defeat of the season. It came about as a result of going just 9 of 34 from three-point range and a big disparity at the free throw line (-11 in makes). But now the Tide is back home, where they are 9-1 SU this year, the only loss coming against #1 Auburn.

The same night ‘Bama got upset, Baylor dominated Kansas State for a 74-49 home win. But now they step into unfamiliar territory as this is part of the Big 12 vs. SEC Challenge and the Bears should expect a hostile environment. The Bears are certainly capable of winning on the road (they are 8-0 SU outside of Waco this season), but remember they did lose at home to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. I think Alabama is pretty comparable to Texas Tech. The respect shown here to the home team is not a surprise. They were favorites at home vs. Auburn! 8* Alabama

8* Winthrop (3:00 ET): The number of teams with an unbeaten conference record is rapidly dwindling across College Basketball. But we’ve got one of the few remaining here with Longwood out of the Big South. The Lancers have won all six league games so far. But other than a 73-49 thrashing of last place Hampton earlier this week, all of the wins have come by single digits. This afternoon, Longwood gets its stiffest Big South test to date with a visit from the other division leader, Winthrop. 

Now Winthrop has been a disaster for bettors so far this season. The Eagles are 3-13 ATS overall and haven’t covered a spread since December 7th! But they have also been favored in almost every game during this ATS slide. The lone exception was a blowout loss at Mississippi State. In fact, the last time Winthrop covered a game, came as a home underdog to Furman (they won that game outright). It is rather incredible to see a team with an 0-11-1 ATS record as favorites, but we don’t need to worry about laying points here. 

This is the third game in six days for both teams. Winthrop lost at High Point on Monday, but then bounced back with a four-point win at USC Upstate in overtime. Longwood had the win at Hampton on Monday, then beat North Carolina A&T by eight on Wednesday, at home. Winthrop has certainly had Longwood’s number the last couple years, winning all five meetings, four of those by double digits. Longwood trailed at the half on Wednesday. Take the points here. 8* Winthrop

10* Over Knicks/Bucks (10:10 ET): Milwaukee had a three-game win streak halted two nights ago in Cleveland. They lost 115-99 while shooting just 28% from three-point range (9 of 32). Part of the reason for that poor shooting was because the Bucks were without two of their top shooters, Grayson Allen and Wesley Matthews. Both could be back in the lineup Friday (Allen definitely will) when the team returns home to face the Knicks. The Bucks have won three straight at home and two of the wins saw them score 126 and 133 points. They are averaging 112.4 PPG at home for the season. 

So expect a return to form, at least on offense, for Milwaukee here tonight. As for the Knicks, they’ve struggled with their shooting recently, failing to make more than 43% from the field in any of the last four games. Offense has been a struggle all season for New York, but I expect this game will go a little better than most of the recent ones, and that’s because Milwaukee has allowed 114+ points in four of its last five games. 

This is the fourth head to head meeting between these two teams this season. The first three all stayed Under, but were very close to the number as the games finished with 211, 212 and 209 total points. We haven’t seen good shooting from either side in any of the prior meetings, which is odd. Looking at this number, all we basically need is the Bucks (111.8 PPG) and Knicks (103.8) to hit their season averages. I don’t think that’s asking for too much? The Over is 9-3 L12 times the Bucks have been home favorites. 10* Over Knicks/Bucks

8* San Antonio (8:40 ET): The Spurs remain one of the more “curious cases” in the league as they have the point differential of a team you’d expect to be right around .500, but instead they are 13 games below. At home, they’ve actually outscored their opponents this season, but somehow have a 9-16 SU record here. Coming off another tough home loss, 118-110 to red-hot Memphis, I’m banking on a strong effort from San Antonio and a much “overdue” win. 

Comparing the Spurs and Bulls, in certain metrics, is certainly interesting. The Spurs have the eighth best point differential in the Western Conference, despite their .367 win percentage. They should be, at least, in position for one of the play-in spots. As for the Bulls, they’ve spent time atop the Eastern Conference standings and currently sit second with a 30-17 SU record. But they only have the seventh best point differential in the East. It’s been a great start to the season in the Windy City, but I do see them as likely to drop down a few spots. 

Beating Oklahoma City and Toronto earlier in the week marked the first time that Chicago has won B2B games since January 7th. Injuries and COVID-19 have certainly been a factor with this team, but let’s also note that their two road wins this month both came by a single point. Going back to the start of December, the Bulls have just one road win by more than four points. San Antonio is getting great production of late from PG Murray, who already has 10 triple-doubles this season. Chicago will NOT shoot 39 of 58 again, from two-point range, like they did vs. Toronto. 8* San Antonio

10* Akron (7:00 ET): Toledo is on quite the run currently. They’ve won and covered seven straight, putting them squarely in first place in the MAC. The Rockets’ lone conference defeat this year came by just three points at Kent State back on New Year’s Day. This run hasn’t seen too many close calls, although there have been a couple upsets, like winning at Ohio last Friday. On Tuesday, they won here at home over Buffalo, 86-75. Note, however, that was a close game until the stretch run. I think now is the right time to take the points against Toledo as they are facing a pretty strong Akron team. 

Akron is 6-2 SU in MAC games as they too lost in Kent, but were also beaten at home by Ohio. The Zips have won four in a row coming into tonight, three of those by four points or less. So it’s not been as dominant of a win streak as Toledo’s, but the Zips have allowed an average of just 55.3 points the last three games. Strong defensive numbers are a big reason why this team is 5-1 ATS as an underdog this year. They are 13-5 ATS L18 times getting points.

Toledo is the better offensive team here, but look for them to get stymied by Akron’s slow pace of play. The Zips play at the 15th slowest pace in the country, so by limiting possessions, they can limit the potential damage Toledo can do at the offensive end. It boils down to the visitors making shots and I think they can. Three times in conference play, Akron has scored at least 84 points. Toledo is allowing 72.8 points over its L5 games. 10* Akron

8* Northeastern (7:00 ET): These teams just met on Monday. UNC Wilmington won 74-68 as a 2.5-point underdog. What’s remarkable about that spread is UNC Wilmington entered the game with a perfect conference record. Northeastern is still winless in the CAA this season! It was also UNC Wilmington’s eighth consecutive victory against the spread and ninth win in a row overall (straight up). But all but ONE of those lined victories came as an underdog. Tonight the Seahawks are favored for just the second time since December 1st!

Pulling off four consecutive upsets, not to mention seven in your last eight games, is a remarkable achievement and that is what UNC Wilmington has done. Clearly, they have made the oddsmakers look a little foolish. But all good things must end, and now as a favorite, they are ready to be faded. Northeastern actually shot much better in the game Monday night (46.3% to 40.0%). The key was that UNCW made eight threes to N’eastern’s four and they were also +8 in FT makes. 

N’eastern actually led at the break Monday. It is telling that despite being 0-8 SU in conference play that the Huskies are only a slight dog to the first place team, on the road. UNC Wilmington’s average margin of victory in conference play is less than five points per game. They’ve yet to win by double digits and three of the wins have come by four points or less. Four of Northeastern’s conference losses have been by six points or less. This is simply a case of regression/progression to the mean. 8* Northeastern

10* James Madison (7:00 ET): JMU is off one of the worst “beats” in recent memory as they, as a three-point favorite, fell “victim” to a last second three. The Dukes still won the game 95-94, but if you bet them (like I did), that was some “tough luck.” 

That one-point win (over College of Charleston) took place Saturday night. It was the fourth straight ATS loss for JMU, although they have won two of the games straight up. Three have been decided by four points or less. The oddsmakers are expecting another close tonight vs. Drexel, but I do think the Dukes break through and cover the spread in this one. They have been a strong home team all year, winning 8 of 10 games here and averaging 82.1 PPG. Each of the last two games have seen a three-pointer hit at the buzzer. The last one, as I already mentioned, cost them a cover. The previous one was even more heartbreaking as they lost 71-70 to UNC Wilmington. 

While it is a little concerning how JMU has given up 90+ points in three of its last four games, don’t look for Drexel to do anywhere close to that kind of damage at the offensive end tonight. The Dragons are off a horrible loss, as 15-point favorites, to the worst team in the league (that being William & Mary). That came at home. JMU, while shooting over 50% themselves at home this season, is limiting the opposition to 40.3% here. This is the Dukes’ fourth straight game at home and they’ve only been an underdog one time since conference play began. Drexel has only been favored once. So I see the home side covering the short number, this time. 10* James Madison

8* Under Wisconsin/Nebraska (5:00 ET): Well, taking the Under the last time Wisconsin took the floor turned out to be the incorrect play. But, if at first you don’t succeed, then try again. Tonight’s matchup seems far more conducive to an Under, even though the opponent (Nebraska) is not so hot defensively. I think the big key is that Nebraska - unlike Michigan State - is simply incapable of scoring 86 points. That’s how many Michigan State put up on the Badgers last Friday. 

This will be Nebraska’s first game in 10 days due to COVID. This matchup was originally set to take place on Tuesday, but the Cornhuskers were dealing with health and safety protocol. Last Saturday’s game vs. Ohio State also had to be postponed. So I would not be surprised if it’s a “sluggish” start from the home team in this one. It’s also unlikely that the Cornhuskers will EVER get hot from three-point range tonight; they are sinking only 29.8% of their 3PA for the season! It’s been a tough season in Lincoln. 

The key here is Nebraska keeping Wisconsin’s offense in check. Fortunately, the Badgers are second in the country at turning the ball over. I don’t think that’s going to lead to an abundance of points for Nebraska, but it will lead to plenty of empty possessions by the road team. The Cornhuskers are second in the Big 10 at forcing turnovers. Wisconsin played without its third leading scorer in the last game and got just seven bench points. Their Over streak, now at eight games, is due to end. 8* Under Wisconsin/Nebraska

8* Utah (10:10 ET): I understand who the hotter team is here. Phoenix, who leads the NBA with a 37-9 SU record, has won its last seven games and 10 of the last 11. Meanwhile, Utah has been slumping over its last 10 games, going just 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS. But the fact the Jazz, severely short-handed, were able to “keep up” with the Suns two nights ago on the road was an encouraging sign. Six of their nine top scorers did not play in the game Monday, including Mitchell, Gobert, Bogdanovic and Conley. Most of them are set to return tonight, so I’m taking the points as this is the 1st time all season the Jazz have been underdogs at home. 

Despite the recent slide, I’ve still got the Jazz rated #3 in my own power ratings. The last two games have seen them lose close decisions to the top two teams, Golden State and Phoenix, both on the road. Utah covered the spread in both games, much needed relief for their backers after going 4-14 ATS the previous 18 games. Even without most of their best players, the Jazz were up in the fourth quarter Monday in Phoenix, which is pretty remarkable when you think about it. Seven players actually finished in double figures.

The Suns are also playing without some key pieces, namely Payne, Ayton and Crowder. So they aren’t at full strength either here. As I said earlier, this will be the first time this season that Utah is getting points at home. It does appear as if Gobert and Mitchell will again be out, but the other players should be back and if a skeleton crew could stick with the Suns on the road, then it stands to reason a more “complete” roster can also cover the number at home. The Jazz will badly want this win, knowing the game is on national television. 8* Utah

10* Seattle U (10:00 ET): The current leaders in the WAC have won seven in a row and now stand at 15-4 SU on the year. They’ve yet to drop a conference game and have covered the spread against five of their six WAC opponents thus far. I’ll look for the trend to continue tonight when Seattle hosts Stephen F Austin. The Lumberjacks, in their maiden season in the conference, currently stand at only 12-7 SU after suffering a 14-point loss at home to New Mexico State on Saturday. They are now just 1-5 ATS in their L6 games. 

Seattle is coming off a 76-68 win at Tarleton State where they were actually 1.5-point underdogs. It was the second straight outright win as a dog for the Redhawks, who also beat Abilene Christian 72-62 on the road two days earlier, as a six-point dog. As to why the team is performing so well of late, you can probably credit the defense, which is holding the opposition to below 40% shooting in conference play. That’s a problem for SF Austin St, which has been below 40% in three of its last four games. 

The Redhawks are the better team here and with the home court advantage, they should clearly be bigger favorites. They’ve gone 11-1 SU at home and averaged 80.7 PPG. So it’s not just the defense. Last time SF Austin St ventured on the road, they shot a hideous 26.2% from the floor in a 49-41 loss to Sam Houston State. This isn’t the Southland anymore and these road trips are about to get more daunting for the Lumberjacks, who are set to hit the West Coast for the first time as a WAC member. This number is way too short. 10* Seattle U

8* Seton Hall (8:30 ET): Taking a flier on Seton Hall here as they have revenge and are off their worst loss of the season. The revenge angle stems from a controversial 73-72 loss to Marquette 11 days ago, a game that was decided on a late foul (which really could have gone either way). The bad loss came Saturday, 84-63 to St. John’s, a team the Pirates had just beaten at MSG two days prior. The loss occurred in historic Walsh Gymnasium and saw SH play without Bryce Aiken, who has been in concussion protocol ever since the loss to Marquette. Even if Aiken does not return here, I still believe in the Pirates and think this is an opportune time to “sell high” on Marquette. 

It was back on Jan 4 that I took Marquette in what ended up being an 88-56 romp over Providence. I took them again in their next game and they crushed Georgetown 92-64. A third straight double digit win (87-76 over DePaul) followed. Since then, the Golden Eagles have rattled off three consecutive upsets, all over ranked teams, to make it a six-game win streak. Now they come in ranked (#22) and are seemingly one of the hottest teams in the country. But two of those wins, the one over Seton Hall and then later a three-point win at Villanova, easily could have gone the other way. 

Seton Hall had a huge rebounding edge (47-26) in the first meeting, but could not overcome 20 turnovers. The other thing that hurt them was Marquette shooting much better from three-point range. With the rematch set to take place at home, the Pirates should take better care of the basketball and shoot better from behind the arc. Leading scorer Jared Rhoden, who was 6 of 28 on FG attempts in the L2 games, should be far more efficient and PG Richmond is a lock to improve after his disastrous showing Saturday (0 for 8 from the field). Aiken returning would be the “cherry on top,” but not necessary for SH to pull off a much-needed win. 8* Seton Hall

10* Over Mavericks/Warriors (10:05 ET): While both of these teams have been very stout defensively, and the Warriors have really been that way all season, I’ve got to think tonight’s game on ESPN goes Over the oddsmakers’ total. For one, Dallas is on a preposterous run of Unders (eight straight, 13 of last 14 games) right now. Also, I think that Golden State, Steph Curry specifically, is due to break out of a shooting slump. This could end up as the lowest O/U line for any GSW game since 12/18, which went Over. 

Now there is no denying how good Dallas has been defensively during this 13-1 Under stretch. The most points they’ve given up in any of those games is 109 and only three teams have been able to top 100. In today’s NBA, that’s quite shocking. But eventually, you’re going to have a bad game defensively. The fact the Warriors have been struggling to make shots over the same stretch the Mavs have turned it on defensively tells me a “perfect storm” may be in order for tonight’s game. 

Even if both Klay Thompson and Draymond Green both sit out, the Warriors will top the 94 points they scored in the win over the Jazz Sunday. Steph Curry has been in a mini-slump, including 13 points on 5 of 20 shooting last game. He can still go off any night though. The Warriors scored just 11 points in the 4Q Sunday. They were on track for well over 100 before that. Holding the Jazz to 38% shooting was what allowed them to hold on for the two-point win. Dallas will shoot better than recent Warriors’ opponents have. 10* Over Mavericks/Warriors

8* Missouri (8:30 ET): Auburn is now ranked #1 for the first time in program history. This puts a big target on their back every game. I know that it’s been a great run of form for Bruce Pearl’s team as they have covered the spread in each of their last eight games. But Tuesday is a total letdown spot as the Tigers are coming off a home win against Kentucky and have Oklahoma (SEC/Big 12 Challenge) and rival Alabama on deck. Laying double digits on the road, they are ready to be faded here. 

Missouri has been a bit schizophrenic of late. But they have covered the number in each of the last three games. They’ve not been favored in a single SEC game so far. So the fact they are 2-4 SU in conference play isn’t that bad. They beat Alabama, as a 14-point underdog, here in Columbia. They also won by 25 at Ole Miss last week, a game where the Tigers were +7.5. Over the weekend, they fell in a rematch with Alabama, but easily covered the 18-point spread. They actually led by as many as 14 in that game. 

Three-point shooting has been pretty lousy for Mizzou all year. But there were signs of a turnaround in their last game, as they made 11 of 24 from behind the arc against Bama. Auburn will not shoot 56.8% again like they did vs. UK on Saturday. They trailed at halftime in that game, but scored 51 points over the final 20 minutes. Auburn’s last four road games have brought three single digit wins. We don’t even need that tonight. Look for the home dog to stay within the number here. Take the points. 8* Missouri

8* Washington (7:10 ET): The Wizards got off to a pretty nice start to the season, winning 10 of their first 13 games. But I saw some “holes” in their resume and there were some clear signs that regression would eventually take place. This is a team with a league-high eight wins by three points or less. Only the Magic and Pistons, the two obvious worst teams, have a worse point differential in the East. Sure enough, the Wiz are now reeling as they’ve lost four of five, all at home. They are 1-9 ATS in the L10 games. 

But, tonight is a situation I expect them to take advantage of. With road games at Memphis, Milwaukee and Philadelphia looming on the schedule, this game vs. the Clippers is a virtual “must-win.” After Sunday’s embarrassing loss to Boston, you’ve got to expect Washington will come out fired up at home. They can’t possibly shoot any worse than they did against the Celtics. They were just 35.5% overall and 23.5% from behind the arc. The good news is that they usually bounce back from games like that. They are 8-2 ATS this season and 21-8 ATS L3 seasons after a game scoring 100 points or less. 

The Clippers are still without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Don’t look for them to make a move into the top six out West. Had LA not made a stunning comeback against Philadelphia on Friday, they’d be coming into tonight as losers of five of their last six. The situation clearly favors the Wizards, who are playing their eighth straight home game while the Clippers are playing their fourth road game in seven nights, and the front end of a back to back. 8* Washington

8* Under Nuggets/Pistons (7:10 ET): These teams just met Sunday with Denver winning 117-111. It came down to the final minute, which had to be less than thrilling if you’re a Nuggets’ fan as they led by as many as 16 in the fourth quarter. What should have Denver “breathing easier” for tonight’s rematch is that it is HIGHLY unlikely the Pistons will shoot 56% again from the floor. The Pistons are last in the East in scoring (102.0 PPG) and shoot just 42.1% for the year. Only OKC is worse offensively. 

Though they were able to rally and tie the game up in the final minute, what killed the Pistons on Sunday were 22 turnovers, which were converted into 28 points by the Nuggets. They may not shoot as well tonight, but the home team should play a “cleaner” game. Defensively, they should be much better as well. While Detroit is allowing 115.1 PPG on the road, it’s a much more reasonable number (107.5) at home. The Under has also hit in the team’s last eight Tuesday games. 

Denver is on a six-game Over run, where scoring has been way up from normal. They’ve allowed four straight opponents to shoot better than 52% from the floor. That can’t keep happening. As detailed above, this is an ideal opponent for the defensive woes to cease. I will not be the least bit surprised if the Nuggets win a close, low-scoring game here. 8* Under Nuggets/Pistons

8* Over Hornets/Raptors (7:10 ET): Both teams lost on Sunday, due in no small part to bad shooting. Charlotte, playing without Gordon Hayward, fell 113-91 at home to Atlanta. That was only the second loss in the last nine games for the Hornets though. I expect them to bounce back offensively in this one, especially after going a dreadful 4 of 36 from three-point range vs. the Hawks. They missed 18 straight attempts from behind the arc and finished the game at just 39.1% overall from the field. 

Toronto played a horrible game against Portland, falling behind by 34 in the first half. This was at home! While I am predicting Charlotte to bounce back offensively in this one, the same can be said for the Raptors. They were held under 40% shooting by the Blazers. Key to their projected improvement here is the fact Charlotte is dead last in the Eastern Conference in scoring defense, giving up 114.2 points per game. The Hornets’ defense has improved some over the last month, but the YTD numbers speak for themselves. 

The total was very high (233.5) for the Charlotte-Atlanta game Sunday. So it looks like we’re getting some solid value with this number. The Under is 7-1 in Charlotte’s last eight games and 12-3 L15 (4-0 L4). To me, that says things are “due” to go the “other way.” Same for Toronto, who had gone Under in seven straight before Sunday’s Over vs. Portland. Prior to the seven-game Under run, the Raptors had gone Over in 10 straight games. They are streaky when it comes to totals! 8* Over Hornets/Raptor

9* TX Southern (8:30 ET): The last time I took Texas Southern, things went VERY well as the Tigers annihilated Mississippi Valley State 95-58. What followed (for them) were two close, painful losses - by one at Alcorn State and by three at Jackson State. But home court appears to be a “panacea” as they returned to Houston on Saturday and crushed Alabama A&M. The Tigers have only played three home games this season. But they are 3-0 and have won by 19, 37 and 34 points! 

So I’ll lay the number here. Can’t guarantee it will get as ugly as the last time I took them, or even Saturday. But Texas Southern is clearly a “different team” at home and shouldn’t have much difficulty thrashing Alabama State, who is 1-11 SU on the road so far. The Hornets just lost at Prairie View A&M, who is very bad, 70-67 on Saturday. They covered, but the fact they were underdogs speaks volumes. This is a bad basketball team. 

Consider that when Alabama State hosted Alabama A&M, they won by just four points. That’s the same opponent that TX Southern just beat by 34. For each of the last three games, Alabama State has been below 38 percent shooting. This is a team that’s been beaten by double digits on nine separate occasions this year. 9* TX Southern

8* Binghamton (7:30 ET): Both of these teams come into Monday riding three-game ATS win streaks. But I’m not sure a 3-11 Hartford team deserves to be favored on the road, against anyone. The Hawks had nearly a month off (due to cancellations/postponements) when they beat New Hampshire 69-57 last week. They returned to their “losing ways” over the weekend, falling at Vermont 82-72. There’s really no shame in that loss (Hartford was +15.5), but again … a road favorite? 

Binghamton is 4-2 in conference play, so they’ve gotten in a lot more games than Hartford. Playing regularly keeps you in rhythm and thus I expect the Bearcats to be in better form this evening. They are off a 68-57 win over New Jersey Tech on Saturday, which was a revenge spot. With the next two games both coming against Hartford, there’s a real shot for Binghamton to put some distance between themselves and the middle of the pack in the America East. The only two teams ahead of them right now are Vermont and Stony Brook. 

Last time at home, Binghamton lost by three to Stony Brook in a game that could have gone either way. It was their second straight home loss, so motivation should be high coming into tonight. After not playing a single game for nearly a month, Hartford is now playing for a third time in less than a week. The Hawks are just 2-7 in “true” road games this year and after shooting 50%+ in the last two games, I see a downturn tonight. Take the points. 8* Binghamton

10* Under Towson/Delaware (7:00 ET): Delaware finds itself on a five-game Over streak. They’ve shot 50% or better and scored 80+ points in four of the games. But they probably can’t keep that up. Those numbers aren’t demonstrably higher than what the Blue Hens are doing at the offensive end for the balance of the year. But it’s really hard to keep up an offensive stretch like that for a long period of time. Plus, Delaware surprisingly shoots WORSE at home (where they are tonight), making only 44.9% of their total FG attempts. 

Tonight, the Blue Hens run into a Towson team that can play some defense. The visiting Tigers are holding the opposition to 40.4% shooting for the year and 65.4 PPG. They did just give up 81 in a loss to UNC Wilmington over the weekend, but that game went to overtime and was tied 65-65 at the end of regulation. In their previous game, Towson had held Charleston to just 32.9% shooting. None of the Tigers’ previous nine opponents have scored 70 in regulation. 

Delaware can play some defense too; they are allowing just 40.3% shooting at home this year. Neither of these two teams play incredibly fast. Both are outside the top 200 in adjusted tempo. Towson is actually 320th in adjusted tempo, which means their preferred pace is VERY slow. With both teams playing their second game in three days, I look for the Under to cash in this Monday CAA matchup. This is a high O/U line for Towson, who is 6-2 Under when the total is 140 to 149.5. 10* Under Towson/Delaware

10* Over Grizzlies/Mavericks (7:35 ET): While the trends are firmly on the side of the Under here, I’m looking to “buck” convention as two of the hottest teams in the league should find a way to go Over here. Yes, Dallas has gone Under in seven straight games, the last five of which have been here at home. That brings the O/U record for the year to 17-5 Under at home, which is pretty crazy. All three previous Grizzlies-Mavs meetings this year have gone Under. But expect this one to go differently. 

The last time these teams met was earlier this month and the Mavs surprisingly ran away with a 112-85 road win. That’s just one of two games that Memphis has lost since Christmas. Part of the reason the Grizzlies lost is because they shot just 38.2% from the floor, including 22% from behind the arc. They actually led 55-50 at the half but were held to only 30 points over the final two quarters! Even though it ended up being a blowout victory, even Dallas didn’t shoot well from three in that game. The two teams combined to go 15 of 63 from behind the arc!

Expect much more precise three-point shooting in this one. Memphis is a team that averages 112.1 PPG and they just scored 122 in their last game, despite being without their second and third leading scorers. Ja Morant went for 38. Dallas is off a disappointing 109-101 loss to Phoenix where they scored only 19 points in the 4Q. Luka Doncic expects to play Sunday after leaving the last game with a neck injury. That’s key. 10* Over Grizzlies/Mavericks

10* Buffalo (6:30 ET): The Bills looked pretty “Super” to me in destroying New England 47-17 last week, so - as underdogs - I’m making them my 10* Game of the Year this Sunday at Kansas City. Yes, the Chiefs looked pretty strong in their own right in the Wild Card Round. But that was against a subpar Steelers team that had no business even being in the playoff field. Let us not forget how the Bills came to Arrowhead Stadium earlier this season (Week 5) and really beat the Chiefs up, then walking away 38-20 winners. 

The Patriots team that the Bills destroyed last week were #3 in the league in regular season point differential. So that was a much more impressive win than what KC did vs. Pittsburgh. Really, I haven’t seen many more impressive performances than what the Bills turned in last Saturday. They scored touchdowns on all seven drives that did not end with a kneel down at the end of a half. This against a top five regular season defense. Prior to backup QB Mitchell Trubisky coming in for “mop-up duty” (three kneel downs), the Bills’ offense gained 480 total yards on just 51 total plays. 

Let’s talk about the Bills’ defense for a moment. It allowed the fewest points during the regular season, resulting in the league’s point differential. Another area where the Bills are #1 in the NFL in yards per play differential. So this is going to be a big step up in class for the Chiefs, who have a bit of a misleading 7-3 SU record vs. fellow playoff teams (including last week). Four of those seven wins were against the Raiders and Steelers, the two worst playoff teams. They also beat Philadelphia early in the season (Week 3) and Green Bay w/o Aaron Rodgers. Buffalo should have had a better record, but was 0-5 in one-score games. The Bills are my #1 rated team in the power rankings and should win here. Take the points. 10* Buffalo

8* Under Bills/Chiefs (6:30 ET): The Bills offense played nearly perfect football vs. New England in the Wild Card Round. Against a top five defense (#2 in scoring), they scored touchdowns on all seven drives that did not end in a kneel down. Before backup QB Mitchell Trubisky came in for “kneel down duty” at the end of the game, Buffalo had 480 total yards on 51 plays. I really respect this offense, but repeating last week’s performance will be impossible.

Kansas City dominated in the Wild Card Round as well. Don’t be fooled by them allowing 21 points either. One of Pittsburgh’s touchdowns was from the defense. In the first half, the Steelers’ offense never crossed midfield and had just 40 yards on 26 plays (excluding kneel down). That was reminiscent of the stretch in the regular season when the Chiefs allowed 17 points or less in six straight games. At home this season, they are allowing just 17.9 PPG. The Chiefs will NOT keep the Bills in check like they did the Steelers, but I do see KC’s six-game Over run coming to an end here.

These teams met in the regular season, here at Arrowhead, with the Bills winning 38-20. That included a defensive touchdown by the Bills. Take that away and the game would have stayed Under. Note the Chiefs only scored 20 points. Buffalo has the league’s top scoring defense at 17.0 PPG allowed and even on the road they allow only 17.5.  This game will be lower-scoring than expected. I know that it seems risky, but take the Under. 8* Under Bills/Chiefs 

8* Under Rams/Buccaneers (3:00 ET): So these teams met in the regular season. The Rams won 34-24, but that was at home. It was a turnover free game (for both sides) where the Rams - at one point - scored on six consecutive drives. The Bucs didn’t exactly have problems moving the football either, but they missed a field goal and turned it over on downs in the fourth quarter. For a variety of reasons, I don’t see the rematch being nearly as high scoring. Take the Under.

The Rams were 34-11 winners over Arizona in the Wild Card Round. That included a defensive TD (thanks to an atrocious decision by Kyler Murray), which pretty much put the game away. While Matt Stafford getting his first career playoff win grabbed the headlines, don’t discount what the Rams’ defense did to the Cardinals. They held them to just 183 total yards (just 3.4 yards per play), most of that coming when the game was already well in hand. Holding Tom Brady and company in check like that might seem unrealistic. But the Rams’ defense has now had seven straight games of holding opponents to 24 points or less in regulation. That was the number they held TB to back in Week 3.

The Bucs were 31-15 winners on Wild Card Weekend, easily dispatching of the Eagles. But while the final result was never in doubt, take note that TB was actually outgained on a per play basis. Some of that has to do with all of the points and most of the yards allowed by the defense coming in the 4Q. Going into the fourth, Philly was scoreless and had less than 200 total yards. But still, Brady and the offense gained just 4.5 yards per play and clearly benefited from a muffed punt that led to a touchdown. 8* Under Rams/Buccaneers

7* Barcelona (3:00 ET): It’s a “must-have” three points for Barcelona on Sunday. The perennial La Liga heavyweight is coming off two straight losses, one in the Supercopa (3-2 to Real Madrid) and the other in the Copa del Rey (3-2 to Athletic Club). Both results were decided in AET. If there is a “silver lining,” it’s that Barca can now turn its full focus to league play and finishing in the top four. They are currently tied for 6th place with 32 points, only one back of the top four (with Atletico’s Saturday result still pending). 

Facing a bottom of the table side like Alaves should make for an easy evening. Despite a managerial change just prior to the new year, Alaves is winless in its last three fixtures and has picked up just two points from its last five. This leaves them perilously close to the foot of the table, in 19th, and three points adrift of safety. While a win would obviously be huge here for Alaves, there’s really no indication they are capable of even sharing the points in this spot. They are tied for the most losses in La Liga (12) and have scored the fewest number of goals in the league (16). After finishing 16th each of the last two seasons, it looks like it will be a struggle for Alaves to avoid relegation in 2022. 

Only Real Madrid and Sevilla, the top two sides in La Liga, have fewer losses than Barca’s four this season. One does have to go all the way back to January 2nd to find the last time they picked up a league win (1-0 over Mallorca), but they’ve only played one since (a 1-1 draw with Getafe). Before a run of more challenging fixtures (Atletico, Espanyol) on the domestic front and the Europa League resuming in February, it is imperative that the favorites get the full three here. That shouldn’t be hard against an Alaves side that has scored one goal or fewer in seven of its last eight fixtures. The one exception was a 5-2 loss. 7* Barcelona

8* St. Louis (2:00 ET): This is an immediate rematch from a game played on Thursday, which UMass (surprisingly) won 91-88. The Minutemen were three-point underdogs for that one, at home, but now must head to St. Louis where they’ve won just once in their last 10 tries. The Minutemen are also 1-7 SU away from home this season, including 0-4 in “true” road games. The likelihood of them matching their shooting from Thursday’s game is not likely here. St. Louis is holding visiting teams to 38.2% shooting this year. 

From the Billikens’ perspective, what made Thursday’s loss so disappointing is that they got a season-high 23 points from Gibson Jimerson as well as a career-best 20 points from Fred Thatch Jr. Of the two teams, St. Louis is far more likely to match Thursday’s offensive effort. I say that because UMass has been just dreadful at the defensive end all season. The Minutemen are allowing over 80 PPG on 50.2% shooting in conference play. All five A-10 opponents have scored at least 77 against them. 

My power ratings suggest a double digit spread here, so there’s value on the home team. UMass had lost six of seven, including all four conference games, prior to the upset on Thursday. St. Louis has covered the spread off each of its last three losses, all those games coming at home. While just 11-6 SU on the year, the Billikens could have a much better record. Five of their six losses have been by six points or less. Look for them to get their revenge with an emphatic win on Sunday. Lay the points. 8* St. Louis

9* Over Wolfsburg/RB Leipzig (9:30 AM ET): Coming off a 2-0 win last week over Stuttgart (my Game of the Week in the Bundesliga), Leipzig FINALLY has to feel like they’re ready to start moving up the table. That was their first away win of the campaign last week, so that’s a giant monkey off the back. But they are still just 7th in the table and in need of another win to (potentially) find themselves level with fourth place Hoffenheim. The fact Leipzig has a +13 YTD GD indicates that they will be a top four side by season’s end (they are already third in xPts), but don’t be surprised if they concede a goal (or two) on Sunday. 

Even as someone who had them, I had to admit Leipzig was lucky to keep a clean sheet last week as Stuttgart had numerous scoring chances that they failed to convert. A desperate Wolfsburg side comes to the Red Bull Arena this week and you can bet if given the opportunity, they will put a few in the net. Wolfsburg’s actual goal total of 17 is way off their expected goal total of 27.07. In Europe’s “Big 4” leagues, only La Liga’s Athletic Club has a larger discrepancy. What that tells me is Wolfsburg is due a few goals in the upcoming fixtures.

Incredibly, Wolfsburg has not scored in any of their last three encounters. They are coming off a 0-0 draw with Hertha Berlin, which extended their winless run to 10 straight across all competitions, which goes back to November and includes a Champions League exit. Given their xG total and how Leipzig was lucky to keep a “clean sheet” last week, I’ve just got to think that Wolfsburg is due to score here. If they do, then the Over is all but assured as Leipzig has put up eight goals in three matches since returning from the Winter Break. 9* Over Wolfsburg/RB Leipzig

10* Ciryl Gane (11:25 ET): The main event of UFC 270 is scheduled for five rounds and is for the Heavyweight Title. Champion Francis Ngannou comes in with a 16-3 career record, including 11-2 in the UFC. He won the title last March from Stipe Miocic via second round KO but has yet to defend it (more on that in a moment). Gane, a former training partner of Ngannou now turned foe, is a perfect 10-0 in his career including seven wins here in the UFC. 

It’s pretty well understood here that Gane is the better technical fighter, but he obviously must be able to withstand/avoid Ngannou’s knockout power. I believe he can. Thus far in his UFC career, Gane has proven himself able to win based on strategy and technique rather than overwhelming power. That said, he did stop Derrick Lewis in August to become interim champion. He’s also grinded out a couple of five-round unanimous decisions over Alexander Volkov and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. So I’m confident in his ability to go the distance to take the title, if needed. 

The interesting subplot in this fight is that Ngannou’s contract is set to expire afterwards, win or lose. So this could be his last fight for the UFC. He’s obviously been at odds with Dana White for some time now. But if Ngannou retains, then the promotion is basically “stuck” with him for another year. White is probably “rooting” for Gane here and while that doesn’t have any actual bearing on the outcome, I believe we’re due to see a new Heavyweight Champion on this evening. Gane has certainly seen his odds increase leading up to the fight. 10* Ciryl Gane

8* UMKC (8:00 ET): The Roos proved to be a “bad take” the last time I had them (Monday vs. Denver) vs. they quickly bounced back with an 80-77 win over North Dakota State on Thursday. That win came as a two-point home underdog as they put together an excellent second half, rallying from a seven-point deficit at the break. I don’t know what happened on Monday when they lost outright to Denver, a team that had lost 10 in a row on the road, 63-55 as an 8.5-point favorite. This should be UMKC’s best performance in awhile. 

They host North Dakota, a team that also surprised me this week when it hung with Summit League power Oral Roberts. The line was +20.5 for the Fighting Hawks and they easily covered, only losing the game by a four-point margin. But it was still their seventh loss in a row and 10th in the last 11 games. North Dakota’s only win since November came against a non-board team. They are 4-15 SU overall and two of those wins came in the first three games of the season. 

The Fighting Hawks are 0-9 SU in “true” road games, losing by an average of 18.4 PPG. Going back further, they are 10-29 ATS L39 road games. As an underdog, they are 5-11 ATS and losing by an average of 13.1 PPG. I really see them struggling to keep up with Kansas City here, especially with them allowing 50% shooting in conference play. UMKC is holding teams to 38.1% shooting here at home. My power rankings say this line should be much higher and I won’t disagree! 8* UMKC

9* North Alabama (4:30 ET): I love dabbling in these smaller conferences as that’s often where the most value is. Such is the case today in the Atlantic Sun where North Alabama hosts Stetson. Now both of these teams have been struggling in 2022. North Alabama has dropped six of seven with the one win coming by a single point. Stetson has dropped three in a row and four of its last five. But the key is home court advantage. Having it, North Alabama should be a much bigger favorite in this spot. 

The Lions have won six of seven at home this season, outscoring their opponents by 28.6 PPG! Now that’s a little skewed by them posting three blowout wins over non-DI teams. However, their last win came here in Florence as they upended Eastern Kentucky as 5.5-point underdogs. That’s an EKU team I just won with earlier this week. Since that win, the Lions have dropped two straight on the road, but one of them was in overtime. North Alabama has the distinction of having faced Gonzaga & Auburn this year (#1 and #2), so they won’t be intimidated by anyone from the A-Sun. 

Stetson is a team that’s only been favored in two games all year. Both times they were favored by two points or less. The Hatters are underdogs here, but it’s a short number. My point is this is typically not a team that the oddsmakers expect to win. They are 2-6 SU on the road. Earlier in the week, Stetson lost in OT to Florida Gulf Coast, which was extra painful as they battled back from a 15-point halftime deficit at home. The two games prior saw them average just 49.5 points. 9* North Alabama

10* James Madison (4:00 ET): Both of these Colonial teams got off to respectable starts to the season, but after dealing with multiple cancellations because of COVID-19, conference play has been a surprising struggle. James Madison is a team I’ve won with before; I took them as a slight favorite when they crushed Northeastern 89-66 earlier this month. But since that win, the Dukes are 0-3 ATS including an ugly loss on the road to Elon and a loss at the buzzer to UNC Wilmington on Thursday. Between them and Charleston, I think JMU is the more likely team to bounce back on Saturday. 

Charleston is 0-4 ATS in CAA play, winning only one game straight up. That win was over the Elon team that blew JMU out. But the difference is Charleston got Elon at home. On Thursday, Charleston lost 74-67 to Towson as they could only score 24 points in the first half, a season-low for the team. Now 1-6 ATS in the L7 games overall, the Cougars are playing their second road game in three days, a scenario they’ve yet to face this season. On the road, this team is shooting just 40.4%.

The loss suffered by James Madison on Thursday was just their second at home all season. This is a team my power ratings have felt has been underrated for awhile; they beat Virginia here at home! For the year, JMU is averaging 80.7 PPG at home while giving up only 61.6. They are shooting 50.5% from the field here (38.5% from three) while allowing just 39.3% overall shooting (27.9% from three). At the end of the day, I just can’t see the Dukes dropping a three straight game as chalk. 10* James Madison

7* Over Wolverhampton/Brentford (10:00 AM ET): It’s somewhat incredible just how low-scoring Wolves’ matches have been this Premier League campaign. Not only are they scoring less than one goal per match, they are also conceding fewer than one goal per match. The 32 total goals scored in Wolves’ matches this season is easily an EPL-low. The next fewest would be 43 from Burnley and they’ve played three fewer times. Moving forward, you’ve got to think we’re due for an uptick in scoring when the Wolves are on the pitch. Last time out may have been a sign as they scored three times in a win over Southampton.

The Wolves enter Saturday six points back of the top four. So a win here could cut that deficit in half. They are facing Brentford, a newly promoted side for 2021/22 that got off to a good start, but has recently begun to fade. The Bees suffered a 3-1 defeat midweek to Manchester United. This leaves them down in 14th place in the table, still well clear of the drop zone, but also unlikely to make a serious run at a top half finish. Brentford actually has a higher number of xPts than Wolverhampton, but that’s not doing them any good right now. 

The Wolves’ xGA is 26.04, a massive difference from the actual number of goals (15) they’ve conceded this season. No side in any of Europe’s “Big 4” leagues has allowed a fewer number of goals relative to their xGA. It’s essentially the reverse of what I talked about with Levante in the other writeup. The Wolves are due to start conceding more as the season progresses. But they are also probably due to score more as well. Like I said earlier, last time out was perhaps a sign of things to come and now they face a Brentford side that has conceded a total of 10 goals in its last three Premier League matchups. 7* Over Wolverhampton/Brentford

9* Under Borussia Dortmund/Hoffenheim (9:30 AM ET): Two of the top four in the Bundesliga meet here. Dortmund is now hot on the heels of Bayern Munich as they are only six points back of the top of the table. Last week, it was a 5-1 thrashing of Freiburg, but I don’t look for a repeat of that performance here. Not after BVB just suffered a humiliating defeat midweek in the DFB-Pokal to second tier side St. Pauli, 2-1. Hoffenheim was also ousted from that tournament, 4-1, at the hands of Freiburg. They are currently fourth in the German top flight with 31 points, only ahead of FC Union Berlin on goal differential. 

Dortmund’s 49 goals this season are second most in the Bundesliga, trailing only Bayern Munich. But xG says they’ve been lucky to score that many. This side’s expected goal total is just 38.62. Among Europe’s “Big 4” leagues, only Serie A’s Lazio has overperformed its expected goal total by a wider margin. So much of this side’s future depends on what Erling Haaland chooses to do next, but I can also say BVB was lucky to score five times in their last match as the metrics indicated it should have been a much tighter affair. Note that only 18 of Dortmund’s 49 goals this season have been scored on the road. 

Things had been looking good for Hoffenheim until the last week or so as they’ve dropped two straight competitions. Last time in the Bundesliga, they were beaten 2-1 by FC Union Berlin, a huge result as it leveled those two sides in fourth place. Huge for this fixture is the fact that Hoffenheim has conceded only nine times on home soil this season. That’s a big difference from the 20 times they’ve conceded on their travels. I expect a surprisingly low-scoring battle here. 9* Under Borussia Dortmund/Hoffenheim

10* Mainz (9:30 AM ET): After a disappointing midweek exit from the DFB-Pokal. Mainz needs to concentrate on moving up the Bundesliga table. Despite currently being in only 10th place, they are just four points back of the top four. So a win here would be huge for Die Nullfunfer and wouldn’t you know … they are matched up with the worst side in the league, Greuther Furth, whose chances of escaping the relegation zone have been dire for some time now. Look for Mainz to get the full three (points) here. 

It was certainly disappointing for Mainz to lose 3-1 midweek to Bochum, a side they’d just beaten three days earlier here in league play. But perhaps that exit from the DFB-Pokal can be a blessing as Mainz can now concentrate on the task at hand, that being strengthening their position in the German top flight. Usually, in the bottom half of the table, Mainz is having a great 2021/22 Bundesliga season by their standard. With a +6 YTD goal differential, they probably deserve to be a bit higher in the table. They are actually a surprising fifth in xPts. 

Mainz has delivered a “clean sheet” each of the last three times they’ve faced a side in the bottom half of the table, outscoring the opposition 8-0. True to that form, they defeated Greuther Furth 3-0 in the reverse fixture back in August. It just doesn’t get any worse than Furth, who is firmly in last place with only seven points this season. They need to make up an 11-point gap to escape relegation and that’s just not happening. Furth is unbeaten in its last three, but all were draws and two were goalless. This side has a -36 YTD GD and just one win. 10* Mainz

8* Under Cadiz/Levante (8:00 AM ET): The two bottom sides in La Liga meet on Saturday with the three available points being critical to each’s chances for survival for next season. Levante is in bigger trouble right now as they are at the foot of the table with only 11 points. Cadiz, off a 2-2 draw with Espanyol earlier in the week, has 15. But that’s still five adrift of safety. I really thought long and hard about taking Levante in this spot, as I think they’re better than Cadiz and have been really unlucky this season. But trusting a team that just picked up its first win of the season two weeks ago seems risky.

What I do know is that Levante has been incredibly unfortunate to concede a league-high 41 goals this season. In terms of xGA (expected goals allowed), they are only at 30.92. Their gap in xGA and actual goals allowed is easily the largest in all of La Liga. In fact, it’s the largest difference of any side in Europe’s “Big 4” leagues! But Levante did just keep a “clean sheet” their last time on “the pitch,” beating Mallorca 2-0. Now they are set to face a Cadiz side that is tied for the second fewest number of goals scored in La Liga. I could see another clean sheet here for Levante. At the very most, they’ll concede just once. 

Cadiz is coming off a 2-2 draw with Espanyol, but that result included both sides scoring a goal in stoppage time. The expected goal total for the match was only 2.72, a big difference from the actual number of 4.0. That draw snapped Cadiz’s streak of eight consecutive matches scoring one goal or fewer. They hadn’t scored a single goal in three straight before Tuesday’s draw. Incredibly, Cadiz has gone five straight La Liga matches with an expected goal total below 1.0! A goalless draw is a real possibility here, or maybe a 1-0 Levante win. But I cannot see more than two combined goals scored. 8* Under Cadiz/Levante