8* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): The White Sox might be a last place team, but they certainly have some confidence right now after sweeping the Astros here at home. Most impressive is that they were priced at +225, +190 and +140 in the individual games, which included them beating Dallas Keuchel! Now you may be itching to call for some regression here, considering the Pale Hose had dropped six in a row prior to that last series. But I fully anticipate them competing here w/ division rival Kansas City, who has lost four in a row themselves as well as 9 of their last 11 games. A team that is the very definition of "average," the Royals are unaccustomed to being priced at this level on the road. In fact, this will be just the 2nd time all year they find themselves as a ML road fave of -125 or higher. They lost the first one. Even more encouraging is that the White Sox actually have a winning record (10-9) in the same price range as a home dog. 

The Royals were just beaten badly, losing all four games to the Cardinals while giving up 37 runs in the process. That's certainly not a good sign. They have split 10 games w/ the White Sox this year, but were swept in their lone visit to Guranteed Rate Field (back in April). They did manage to return the favor (three-game sweep) late last month, but two of the wins were of the one-run variety, so the series easily could have gone either way. It's no secret that I'm a big fan of the revenge angle (for a sweep of 3+ games), so I'm "all in" on the home team tonight.

The home team will be starting the highly touted Reynaldo Lopez here. While it's Lopez's first start of 2017, he has previous experience in this role. He went 5-3 in 11 starts for the Nationals last year and came over in the Adam Eaton trade. A high strikeout pitcher (always a good sign!), Lopez had 131 K's in 22 starts for Triple A Charlotte this season. This after fanning 42 hitters in 44 IP last season. He'll oppose Danny Duffy here. Duffy has pitched well at times this year, but not vs. Chicago, whom he's 0-2 against w/ an unsightly 11.17 ERA. He's allowed 12 runs and 19 hits in just 12 1/3 IP. Something else to consider is that the Royals' bullpen is struggling - big time - right now. Plus, they've been overworked. Only one of the team's four starters made it a full six innings in the series w/ St. Louis and relievers wound up giving up 19 runs in 16 IP. This is a really good value on the home team as divisional matchup are always a "crapshoot." 8* Chi White Sox

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The Phillies were a big winner for me back on Sunday (as a *10* ULTIMATE POWER release over Colorado) and came into this series on a three-game win streak after sweeping a brief two-game series w/ division rival Atlanta (now 11-2 head to head vs. the Braves this season!). But in their return home Thursday, they got humiliated by the Mets, losing 10-0. That Mets' performance was certainly "out of nowhere" as they came in having lost 8 of 10 while batting a collective .187 over the previous week. While it's true that Philly does have the worst record in all of MLB, note their run differential is better than a handful of teams and that latter metric, I find, to be a far better predictor of future success. (Their 28 one-run losses are by far MLB's most). Home teams that get humiliated in the fashion the Phillies were Thursday night, more often than not, come back highly motivated the next day. I'm counting on that here.

The Mets had three different three-run innings last night while Phillies' hitters were stymied by Jacob deGrom. I expect the offense to peform better tonight against Seth Lugo, a pitcher who has given up multiple HR's in three consecutive starts. Lugo has managed a positive team start record on the road (4-2) despite having a 5.45 ERA and 1.529 WHIP. That seems pretty lucky to me and the runs allowed side of the ledger has hurt the Mets all season long. In fact, they're giving up an average of 5.5 rpg on the road this year, thereby negating their own scoring average of 5.2 rpg. Only two teams - the Padres and Giants - have allowed more runs per game on the road this season. The bullpen has played its own role in that w/ a 5.59 ERA and 1.600 WHIP away from home. Lugo has never started here at Citizens Bank Park before. Remember that like the Phillies, the Mets are already thinking about next season. They're currently 10 games below .500 and have been outscored by 57 runs over the course of the season. 

If you're searching for a reason to care about Phillies' baseball the rest of the way, then look to callup Rhys Hoskins, who made his big-league debut yday. While he went 0 for 2 at the plate, the 1B/OF produced a .966 OPS at Triple A Lehigh Valley w/ 29 HR's. For more immediate purposes, there's plenty to like here about starter Nick Pivetta, despite what the overall numbers may look like. Pivetta has a 0.973 WHIP here at home and his last time starting here, he allowed just one run on three hits in 6 IP. Furthermore, he has already beaten the Mets this year, having allowed just one HIT (a solo HR) over 7 IP back on 7.2! That was his best performance to date and if he comes anywhere close to duplicating that tonight, then the Phils should have no problem bouncing back from last night's "disaster." 10* Philadelphia

8* LA Dodgers (9:40 ET): I felt Arizona was a great value on the run line Tuesday night and took them in what ended up being an "outright" 6-3 victory. I also felt that the D'backs were a great value plus the 1.5 last night as they had Zack Greinke on the bump. Turns out the run line came in handy there as they lost to the Dodgers 3-2. Tonight, however, I'm "switching course." It is Los Angeles, a team that appears to be on an absolute mission, that provides the value as they will be sending Yu Darvish to the mound. Oddsmakers have not hiked the asking price on LA up nearly enough here (compared to the last two days) as - clearly - the pitching edge lies in Dodger Blue's favor moreso than the first two games.

The Dodgers adding a pitcher the caliber of Darvish illustrates what an "embarrassment of riches" we are dealing with here. The team - now an astounding 80-33 on the season - is on pace to match the all-time record for wins in a single regular season (114), set by the '01 Mariners. They have outscored the opposition by an amazing 202 runs, which puts them on a pace to finish at +289, which would be the franchise's best run differential since the 1889 team in Brooklyn! Oh by the way, Darvish's debut last week could hardly have been better as he tossed seven shutout innings of three-hit ball w/ 10 K's. He figures to benefit immensely from the move to the Senior Circuit where he'll consistently be facing weaker lineups. Maybe Arizona doesn't seem to fall into that class (average 5.7 rpg here at Chase Field), but five of their last seven games have seen them score four runs or fewer.

Countering Darvish will be Anthony Banda and I hardly feel like he'll be up to the challenge. Banda will be making his third start and while his last (last Friday) saw him stand up to Madison Bumgarner and win (as a +135 ML underdog), Darvish and the Dodgers is a far greater task. Banda was able to overcome four walks in that last start, but you can bet the Dodgers would make him pay for a similar transgression. Banda's first start saw him give up four runs. He's only in the rotation due to an injury to Robbie Ray. Among their many other exploits, the Dodgers are 27-10 this year when facing a left-handed starter. 8* LA Dodgers

Play still stands even w/ pitching change!

8* Milwaukee (8:10 ET): There's been a pitching change for the Twins here as they'll now send Dietrich Enns to the mound. It will be Enns big-league debut. Originally, it was to be Kyle Gibson in this spot, but he'll instead pitch tomorrow's series opener vs. the Tigers. While Gibson's 6.03 ERA and 1.70 WHIP would have certainly made for some nice fade material here, the bottom line is that I'm jumping on the Brew Crew here b/c they are looking to avoid what would be an embarrassing four-game, home and home sweep at the hands of their former AL rival. Truth be told, I don't have much regard for a Twins team that should consider itself very fortunate to be at .500 considering they've been outscored by a whopping 61 runs this season.

Let's talk a bit about the Brewers' pitcher, shall we? It is Zach Davies and he comes into tonight in fine form. He's 6-1 w/ a 2.38 ERA in his L8 starts, the last four of which have seen him go at least seven innings. In three of those four, he hasn't even allowed a single earned run! Last time out, Davies allowed just one hit in seven shutout innings at Tampa Bay and won as a +140 ML dog. What's most impressive about that performance is it came in an AL park, meaning Davies had to face a lineup w/ a DH, something he is unaccustomed to. Here, it's a Twins team that will have to send Enns up to bat. This will - easily - be the weakest lineup Davies has faced in some time as his last three starts came against the Rays (AL lineup), Cubs and Nationals (#1 in runs scored).

Now Milwaukee's own lineup has certainly been scuffling throughout this series. Last night marked just the 4th time all season that they were shut out. They have not topped four runs in any of their last 13 games! But in addition to having their most profitable starter on the hill tonight, this team is 11-3 this season when priced in the -125 to -175 range at home. Enns is a bit of an unknown commodity as he was just acquired from the Yankees in the Jaime Garcia deal. He made just one appearance for the Twins' Triple-A affiliate. I feel like targeting him is the sound move here as Milwaukee is desperate right now, not just because they're in third place in the NL Central for the first time since May 13, but also due to trying to avoid this sweep. A home favorite looking to avoid a fourth straight loss to the same opponent is usually a sound investment. 8* Milwaukee

8* Jacksonville (7:35 ET): Expectations are through the roof for the Patriots this year (when aren't they?) as oddsmakers have installed their season win total at a lofty 12.5 w/ some even going so far as to call for another perfect regular season (did so back in '07). To me, the idea of them running the table again seems unlikely, but regardless, the majority of the key components that make this team so good won't be a factor in Thursday night's preseason opener against Jacksonville. These teams have been practicing against one another the last couple days, so they should be somewhat familiar w/ one another at this point. There's been a sharp line move in the direction of the underdog here and that's a big reason why I'm taking the points.

Jacksonville was a "chic" breakout pick for 2016, but they wound up being favored in only three games and finished 3-13 SU (wouldn't you know it?). Believe it or not, I believe they'll improve markedly this season under Doug Marrone, who has shed the interim tag. Predecessor Gus Bradley could never win here, but he quietly built a pretty decent defense, one that I feel will outperform expectations this season. The ceiling for this team though remains tied to QB Blake Bortles, who took a major step BACK last season. I loved the drafting of RB Leonard Fournette (LSU), which will take pressure off the mistake prone Bortles. Veteran QB Chad Henne figures to get a bulk of the snaps tonight.

The Pats did go 3-1 in the preseason last year (while the Jags were 1-3), but there is no denying which team should view the game as more important. Hint: It's not the perennial Super Bowl contender. The spread obviously opened too high and sharps jumped all over it. While I wish I would have acted quicker than I did, the bottom line is taking more than a field goal seems like a good value with what should be the more motivated side. 8* Jacksonville

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians got a "taste of their own medicine" on Wednesday afternoon. After rallying for four runs in the bottom of the ninth Tuesday against the Rockies, it was they that gave up the game-tying run in the top of the ninth yday and would go onto lose, 3-2, in 12 innings. Despite splitting that interleague series, make no mistake about it; the Tribe remains one of the better teams in the American League as is evident by their first place standing in the AL Central and moreso their +98 run differential. This weekend finds them travelling to Tampa Bay to face a Rays team desperately fighting for that final Wild Card spot. There's a clear gap between the top four in the A.L. (Astros, Indians, Red Sox & Yankees) and I look for the superior team to exploit that here w/ Danny Salazar on the bump.

Case in point, the Rays have gone 4-6 against the Astros, Yankees and Red Sox these last few weeks w/ three of the wins coming at Houston's expense. They just dropped two here at home to Boston (Tuesday/Wednesday), scoring only two runs in the process. Offensively, there are major problems developing here and they go beyond the Red Sox series. Three times in the last five games, the Rays have been shutout! They've scored just four runs total in those five games, all of them here at home, and yesterday saw them manage only four hits. The team batting average over the last week is .190 and that doesn't figure to improve much going up against Salazar, who has a 1.35 ERA and 0.650 WHIP in his three starts since coming off the DL. Last time out, Salazar struck out 12 Yankees in what ended up being a hard-luck 2-1 loss. 

The Rays will turn to the still-winless Blake Snell on Thursday. Clearly, having a "0" in the win column at this point of the season is not a good sign. Snell has made 14 starts overall (4-10 TSR) and has a 5.10 ERA and 1.590 WHIP. Last time out, he lasted only four innings and gave up three runs on seven hits, yet the team somehow still emerged victorious over Houston. But you'd have to go back to April to find the last time the Rays won B2B Snell starts. Snell, who has allowed a home run in four consecutive outings, has pitched six innings only twice this year and only four times has he lasted longer than five. He may have to deal w/ Jay Bruce tonight after the Indians went out and got him in a trade w/ the Mets last night. Cleveland has had trouble scoring of late, but is actually 11th in runs scored overall and 5th in OBP. 8* Cleveland

10* Buffalo (7:00 ET): The "vaunted" preseason reputation of the Vikings appears to have preceded itself here as the betting public - likely aware of the team's 12-1 SU record this time of year - has moved them to the role of favorite. But that's in spite of one my own personal favorite preseason angles, that being taking a 1st year HC in his home debut. This is our first shot at seeing Sean McDermott's Buffalo Bills, a team I will likely be much higher on than most in 2017. The Bills were a better team than they showed throughout the failed tenure of predecessor Rex Ryan and w/ this being McDermott's initial shot at being able to impress the fanbase, I expect him to go for the win. Not a fan of road favorites in the preseason. 

Minnesota started out last year 5-0 SU/ATS and did so despite being w/o their starting QB, Teddy Bridgewater. Sam Bradford would go on to set a NFL record for completion percentage in 2016, but don't put much stock into that as completion percentage is way up across the board in the modern NFL plus Bradford is a checkdown machine who too often fails to get the ball downfield. The Vikings would close the season by winning only 3 of their final 11 games. Most unfortunate for them is the severity of the Bridgewater injury as he's unlikely to play much, if at all, this season. That means the underwhelming Bradford will again the run the show on offense, but for tonight's purposes, that will be for only a few snaps. The Vikings' backups at the QB position are Case Keenum and Taylor Heinicke, neither of whom I'd want to put my money on. I know HC Mike Zimmer has shown a propensity to take these games seriously, but we've reached the point in his tenure where that is likely to lessen.

Meanwhile, McDermott is inheriting a Bills team that went 7-9 SU last year and hasn't made the playoffs since 1999 (longest active streak in the league!). But they have a great shot at finishing in second in the AFC East this year as both the Dolphins and Jets figure to be among the worst teams in the league and that could result in four wins right there. (Note: Buffalo was 0-4 against the Dolphins & Jets LY). The team just signed veteran WR Anquan Boldin to bolster the offense, but the player to keep an eye on both here and moving forward is Zay Jones, who set a NCAA record for receptions at East Carolina. Offensive starters are expected to play about a quarter tonight, which is a fair amt of time for the 1st preseason game, a signal to me that McDermott really wants to win his 1st try as a pro coach. 10* Buffalo

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): The Phillies mastery of the Braves is downright non-sensical when you consider the fact the latter still holds a 9.5 game lead over the former in the NL East standings. Now that's not to say Atlanta is a good team, but they're at least a lot closer to mediocre than is Philadelphia, who still has the worst overall record in MLB. I will conccede the point that there are a number of team w/ worse run differentials (than Philly), but there's no sugarcoating the club's 18-41 road record that has seen them get outscored rather substantially. While the Phillies are now 10-2 against the Braves this year - following last night's 5-2 victory - they are just 31-67 against everyone else and I believe that's the record the matters. Atlanta will have its revenge tonight.

In restrospect, last night's play on Julio Teheran may have been misguided when you consider he's now 1-8 in 12 starts here at SunTrust Park. But the Braves still have revenge for a four-game sweep that occurred up in Philly late last month and individually so does Sean Newcomb against Jack Eickhoff. The former certainly pitched well enough to win at Citizens Bank Park back on 7.29, allowing just one run and two hits in five innings. But his bullpen let him down in what ended up being a 4-3 loss for Braves, in 11 innings. That's just a part of what has been a very hard-luck stretch for Newcomb as he's winless over his L6 starts despite allowing 3 ER or less in each of the last three. Three of the Phillies' wins in their four-game sweep of the Braves last month came by exactly one run. Oddly, not counting that series, the Phils are just 12-28 in one-run games. Again, it just doesn't add up. The Braves are due to beat this team. 

Eickhoff was charged w/ all three runs allowed to the Braves back on 7.29. Admittedly, he's pitched pretty well for a last place team, but I went against him in his last start and was rewarded w/ a 5-4 win by the Angels. Eickhoff allowed three runs in that start as well - on just three hits - but also issued four walks. As I said in my analysis of that matchup, Eickhoff had also allowed 3 HR's in his previous road start. On the road, he has an 0-9 team start record w/ a 5.09 ERA and 1.396 WHIP. Atlanta has at least shown a modest profit in night games this season while Philadelphia has set fire to their backers' bankrolls in such affairs, losing 23.6 units overall. 10* Atlanta

8* Carolina (7:30 ET): Houston was very fortunate to not only win the AFC South last year, but even finish at 9-7 SU. They were outscored by 49 points, a differential indicative of a 6.5 win team. Their average loss came by an average of nearly two touchdowns per game (three by 18+ pts) and their lone win that came by more than a TD was by nine points over a bad Bears team. Now the return of JJ Watt to the fold as well as the drafting of QB DeShaun Watson may lead you to believe that the team's overall level of play may improve in 2017. That may be true, but expect them to win fewer games.

Carolina went from 15-1 SU and a Super Bowl appearance in '15 all the way down to 6-10 SU and out of the playoffs last year. But despite that record, they actually owned a slightly better point differential (-33) than the Texans. The Panthers are all but assured of improving in the win column this year and don't be surprised if they challenge Atlanta for the NFC South title. I liked the drafting of RB Christian McCaffery, which gives QB Cam Newton a new weapon to work with, plus the team will likely perform better in close games than last year's ugly 2-6 record in games decided by a field goal or less.

Houston won all four of its preseason games last year, but I don't think for a second that they'll be matching that record here in 2017. All three of their QB's - Tom Savage, Watson and Brandon Weeden - are expected to play tonight w/ Savage starting. Savage and Weeden are both lost causes at this stage of their respective careers and I think it would be foolish to expect much from Watson in his first NFL game. As for Carolina, Cam Newton won't play at all, but McCaffery and many other offensive regulars will. Coming off a season like the Panthers had last year, I think it's important to win the first one in front of the home crowd and I can't understand why this line has moved in the direction it has. 8* Carolina

8* Washington (7:05 ET): Divisional matchups can always be a crapshoot, but still it's been surprising to see the 53-58 Marlins give the 66-45 Nationals so much trouble. The NL East rivals have played five times since July 31st w/ Miami winning three of those games, including 7-3 last night. For the year, the Fish now hold a 6-5 head to head advantage, though the vast majority of the games have been decided by one run (Washington won 3-2 Monday). I look for the Nats to bounce back tonight, however, as they have Gio Gonzalez on the mound and not only is he having a great season, but he's also 8-3 w/ a 1.99 ERA in 14 career starts vs. Miami. Contrast that to Marlins' starter Adam Conley, who has an 8.00 ERA in four career starts vs. Washington. The Nats are one of five teams in baseball w/ a run differential that exceeds +100.

For Gonzalez, this will be his first time pitching since 7.31 when he held the Marlins scoreless for eight innings. He was placed on the paternity list soon after, so he should be both emotionally charged and rested. Not only did Gonzalez shut the Marlins out in his last start, but he took a no-hitter into the ninth inning. He's now 2-0 in three starts vs. Miami this year, having allowed only three runs in a total of 21 IP! At home this year, he has a 2.02 ERA and 1.155 WHIP, so he certainly is deserving of better than a 4-6 TSR here. Furthermore, a scuflling Marlins' offense may make things even easier for Gonzalez. In just one of their L10 games has Miami managed at least 10 hits. Last night, they scored seven times, but on only six hits, which is something you don't see very often. 

The Nats left nine runners on base last night and hit into two double plays. You have to think that an offense which ranks third or better in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging is due to "wake up" sooner rather than later. As mentioned above, they've certainly had Conley's number in the past and the Miami southpaw is coming off his weakest showing since rejoining the rotation after the All-Star Break. He gave up four runs (three earned) in just 5 1/3 IP to Atlanta last Friday and the Braves' lineup is nowhere near as formidable as that of the Nationals. Perhaps most concerning w/ Conley however is how he's recording his outs. For three consecutive starts, he's recorded more outs via fly ball than ground ball and that's typically a sign that trouble could be on the way. 8* Washington

8* Run Line LA Angels (3:37 ET): These teams have split the first two games of this three-game set, but for today's rubber match the Orioles have curiously been installed as favorites for the first time in the series. That makes little sense to me given their season-long struggles on the road. They're just 20-34 outside of Camden Yards in 2017 while getting outscored by a pretty ugly margin (-1.1 rpg). Speaking of run differential, something I've harped on previously is the fact the O's are fortunate to even be "sniffing" .500 given they're now -50 in runs scored vs. allowed for the season. Were it not for a very fortunate 9-2 record in one-run games (unsustainable!), I have to think their record would be a whole lot worse. The Angels are one-half game behind Baltimore in the Wild Card chase, but are actually only -17 in run differential following last night's 3-2 win. Furthermore, the current price range is somewhat foreign to Baltimore as they are rarely ML favorites on the road. Therefore, getting an additional 1.5 runs to work with - at this price- seems to be a great value on the home team.

I sense that it is the recent peformances of Orioles' starter Kevin Gausman that has him and his team favored Wednesday. But while Gausman may have a 0.42 ERA and 1.015 WHIP his L3 starts, that string of showings certainly is NOT in line w/ what we've seen from him most of this season. He has a 5.15 ERA and 1.621 WHIP in 24 starts overall and predictably those numbers worsen on the road. Consider Baltimore's pitching staff has the highest ERA in the American League and has also given up the second most runs (Oakland).

Pitching today for the Halos will be Troy Scribner. This will be just his second big league start and while he allowed five runs in the first (three unearned), the team did win (8-6 over Oakland). The Angels promptly lost their next three games after that, but I feel last night's win could be a turning point as I view this club as a far more serious playoff contender than I do the Orioles. I'll call for Mike Trout and the offense to have their biggest game of the series as well, which will obviously helpd Scribner, who should - at the very worst - keep his team in this one. Remember the difference in Monday's 6-2 win by Baltimore was a grand slam. I see the Angels doing no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5)

8* Cleveland (12:10 ET): The first-place Indians finally seem to have gotten their act together at home as they're now a season-best five games over .500 at Progressive Field. Last night saw them very nearly waste another marvelous effort from the dominant Corey Kluber, but they instead dealt Colorado a soul-crushing 4-1 loss, scoring all four of those runs in the home half of the ninth. With such a short turnaround, this appears to be a terrible spot for the visiting Rockies. Normally, putting an NL team in an AL park leads to an increase in offense, but this franchise has struggled (throughout its existence) to score on the road (Coors Field effect?) and last night saw them manage just one run (scored in the top of the 1st) on three hits. I don't expect a lot more from them this afternoon.

Trevor Bauer pitches today for the Tribe and he's got a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts (2.25 ERA) and has been especially strong in the last two. Here at home, he held both the Angels and Yankees to just one run in a total of 15 IP w/ a 13-3 KW ratio. As I said earlier, the Rockies struggle to score on the road as they're down a full run and a half per game from what they average at Coors Field. They've topped five runs only once in the last seven games and that's w/ only yday's game taking place on the road. Though they're still in good position to bag the National League's second Wild Card, you have to wonder if Colorado is running on fumes a bit. Their YTD run differential (+47) is nowhere near the top three NL teams, nor is it close to Cleveland's (+99). 

Rockies starter Anthony Senzatela has been trending in the opposite direction of Bauer lately w/ a 10.29 ERA and 1.857 WHIP his last three starts. He's given up 17 runs in 14 IP and that's facing NL lineups that include the opposing pitcher hitting. While he did beat Cleveland back on 6.6, that was at Coors Field obviously. This one simply comes down to the home field edge and the fact that it will be very difficult for Colorado to get over allowing four runs in the ninth last night, especially w/ this short turnaround. 8* Cleveland

8* Run Line Arizona (9:40 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the D'backs +1.5. These two NL West rivals met seven times in April w/ Arizona winning four of those games. Since then, they've played just one series and that was at Chavez Ravine (in early July) where the Dodgers swept the three games, winning by exactly one run every time. While certainly not the main reason, that last series certainly played a role in the Dodgers now having opened up a monstrous lead in the NL West as they are 15.5 games up on the Rockies and 16 up on the D'backs. But now they must venture into Chase Field where the D'backs are a much stronger team (36-18 record w/ 5.8 rpg scored!) and the home team may actually have the edge in starting pitching for Tuesday's opener. Yes, the Dodgers have been just plain ridiculous (44-7 L51 games!), but the RL provides a nice "added insurance" here. Arizona will do no worse than a one-run loss.

Zack Godley will toe the rubber tonight for Arizona. He's just 5-4 in his 15 starts, but the team is 10-5. He owns a 2.86 ERA and 0.996 WHIP and is currently working on a 13-inning scoreless streak after shutting out the Cardinals and Cubs in B2B starts. So he comes into this start certainly displaying fine form. When he faced the Dodgers last month, he gave up only one run and three hits in 5 1/3 IP, but sadly took a hard-luck 1-0 loss. Of course, that result would be fine here given how we're playing this one. It should be pointed out that Godley has allowed 3 ER or fewer in all but two of his 15 starts this season (0.895 WHIP at home!) and even in those two, he put forth an excellent 19-4 KW ratio. This is a very good pitcher in what is an underrated D'backs rotation.

Kenta Maeda goes here for the smoking-hot Dodgers. He threw seven shutout innings himself his last time out, but that came against the lowly Braves. When at home, the Dodgers are by far and away #1 in the league in run suppression (allow only 3.1 rpg!), but here at Chase Field, I expect the staff to struggle somewhat. Only Colorado (Coors Field!) averages more runs per game at home than Arizona does. Maeda has a 4.74 ERA and 1.282 WHIP on the road. I realize it's quite scary to step in front of this Dodgers' "runaway train" right now, but this price on Arizona w/ Godley pitching is quite remarkable and we're getting an additional 1.5 runs to work with. Consider Arizona has outscored its opponents at home this year by an average of 1.7 rpg. This team has the fourth best run differential in all of baseball at +114. 8* Run Line Arizona (+1.5)

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): The Phillies have really handled the Braves in 2017, going 9-2 against their NL East rival this season. That includes a four-game sweep in the City of Brotherly Love a little less than two weeks ago. But on the surface, a sweep and for that matter the overall head to head domination make little sense. Atlanta is having the better season of these two teams as they are actually 10.5 games in front of the Phillies in the standings. But something else you must consider is that the Braves are 0-7 when playing in Philly this year. With the scene shifting to Sun Trust Ballpark this week, things should go in their favor. I say that because Philly is an atrocious 17-41 away from home this year, getting outscored by a full run per game. Take the Braves in this revenge spot Tuesday.

Julio Teheran is a starter who I earmarked for massive improvement coming into 2017. That really hasn't taken place, however. Last year, he experienced a 10-20 TSR (Team Start Record) despite posting a 3.21 ERA and 1.053 WHIP, indicative of some bad luck. Well, this year's TSR is a more respectable 10-12, but he has an ERA of 5.17 and a WHIP of 1.396. He has really struggled pitching in the Braves' new home ballpark w/ only ONE win in 11 tries. But I'm going to call for him to pitch much better tonight. He should be rested as he only pitched five innings in his last start (cramping) where he held the Dodgers to only three runs on four hits and the Braves pulled a massive upset. By the way, this Braves team has beaten the Dodgers three times since the All-Star Break. Those are the ONLY three times the Dodgers have lost since the Break!

Fortunately for Teheran, he'll be facing Zach Eflin tonight. Given the way Eflin had pitched before finding his way out of the rotation, it might as well be Zach Efron that the Phils send to the mound. There had been some discussion that they'd go w/ Ricardo Pinto on Tuesday, but instead it will be Efron, whose previous three starts (all the way back in May) resulted in a disastrous 13.20 ERA and 2.333 WHIP. He allowed 22 runs and 30 hits in 15 IP including SEVEN home runs in the final two starts! This play will stand even if Philly pulls a surprise and doesn't go w/ Eflin, but if they do, we're "money." The Phils are 1-5 on their current road trip w/ the one win (I had 'em!) coming Sunday, by one run, after a late rally. 10* Atlanta

8* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): I'll be coming right back w/ the Reds today, a rare B2B day recommendation on a poor team. If you read my analysis for Monday's opener, you probably understand why. The short answer is "the Padres are even worse." Cincy having a little bit of revenge here (got swept in SD earlier in the year) helps too. So does the fact that this series is being contested at Great American Ballpark. The Reds are a respectable 27-30 at home this season. But it's the Padres' awful road record that really matters as they are 20-35 away from Petco and getting outscored by 1.7 rpg. That's heavily contributed to their MLB-worst run differential of -143. The Reds took the opener last night by a score of 11-3 and should have no problem rolling again here.

Sal Romano is now the fifth starter in the rag-tag Reds rotation and seems to be easing into the role. Over his L3 starts, he's posted a 2.87 ERA and 1.276 WHIP, pretty solid numbers I'd say. Things were trending in an even better direction prior to him allowing four runs in six innings his last time out. Then again, it didn't help there that the offense was shutout. The Reds homered four times yday (3rd day in a row from Joey Votto) and scored 11 times, their highest output in two months. Helping Romano here is the fact the Padres rank dead last in baseball when it comes to runs scored, team batting average and OBP. Over the L7 days, they are batting a collective .210. 

The Reds really hammered the Padres' bullpen last night, scoring six times in their final two innings. But in yday's analysis I also spoke of starter Jhoulys Chacin's season-long struggles on the road. Sure enough, the Reds got to him for five runs, the most Chacin had allowed in any of his L13 starts! Season-long strugges on the road also apply to tonight's San Diego starter, Luis Perdomo, who has a 1-7 team start record to go along w/ a 4.57 ERA and 1.742 WHIP. As was the case w/ Chacin, Perdomo has recently benefited from some favorable matchups. The last time he had to pitch on the road was in San Francisco and the Giants are also one of the weakest offensive teams in all of MLB. But even since, Perdomo has allowed nine runs in his last two starts (12 2/3 IP) and that was against the Mets and the DH-less Twins. Reds win again tonight. 8* Cincinnati

10* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): This is a battle of two NL also-rans that figures to get little attention from the public. But there's definitely a situation we can exploit here and that's the fact that the last time they met (back in June), the Padres swept. Since that time, they've continued to win at a higher rate than have the Reds, but it is Cincy that still maintains the better run differential (-104 vs. -131), a metric that is far more reliable than won-loss record in judging a team's overall level of performance. This series taking place at Great American Ballpark is also a boon to the Reds as their record is a far more competitive 26-30 here compared to 19-36 on the road. As for the Padres, who I successfully played against both Friday & Sunday, they're 20-34 on the road and being outscored by 1.6 rpg.

The Reds have been really bad since the All-Star Break, winning just six times in 23 tries. They had won four of five, however, before dropping the last two games to St. Louis. Sunday did not go well as it was a 13-4 loss, but note they actually had a 3-0 lead after one inning only to fall prey to a huge nine-run inning by the Cards that included a grand slam. The Reds actually could have had an even bigger bottom of the 1st as they were up 3-0 w/ the bases loaded and nobody out. They need not worry about having to win a slugfest here, however. San Diego comes in ranked dead last in MLB in runs scored, team batting average and OBP. Over the last week, the team batting average is a woeful .214.

This Reds' starting rotation has been ravaged by injuries this season w/ eight different pitchers finding their way onto the DL. A decision has been made to go w/ Tim Adelman in this spot. Adelman has not pitched since July 29th and had been moved to the bullpen after a poor July. But I look for him to "step up" tonight against the weakest lineup he'll face all season. The Reds are 6-4 this year when Adelman pitches at home. Now San Diego will counter w/ Jhoulys Chacin, who has been in fine form lately w/ 1.96 ERA and 0.927 WHIP his L3 starts. But two of those starts came at home and then he also faced a terrible lineup in San Francisco. Really, his L5 matchups have all been somewhat favorable (favored L2 starts!). But the big key here is Chacin has not pitched well on the road this year (home ERA is lowest in MLB!) as he has a 7.53 ERA and 1.694 WHIP in 10 starts. Given those numbers, a 5-5 TSR should be considered very fortunate. These were expected to be the two worst teams in the National League coming into 2017, but today marks the rare recommendation on the Reds. 10* Cincinnati

8* Run Line Washington (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Nationals -1.5. Obviously, there's always a risk in taking the money line favorite on the RL in that they could win by just a one-run margin. (Both of my wins Sunday were actually of the one-run variety). But, at least on paper, this matchup looks to be as lopsided as it gets as Cy Young candidate Max Scherzer goes for revenge against the team he faced in his last start. Of course, that start lasted all of one inning. Ironically, Scherzer had already "helped himself" at the plate in that game, by hitting his 1st career HR, but unfortunately he had to exit early due to a sore neck (reportedly due to "sleeping funny"). With an extra day of rest between starts, Scherzer should dominate here and I'll call for the Nats to win big.

I think Washington is in a great spot right now. They just took two of three from the Cubs (at Wrigley) despite not starting Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg or Gio Gonzalez. By most objective measures, this is the third best team in baseball (behind the Dodgers and Astros) and as hot as LA has been, I'm not ruling out a World Series run by the team from the Nation's Capital. Now they give the baseball to a rested Scherzer who is having himself another unbelievable year. That 14-8 TSR is quite misleading when you consider he ranks 1st in the NL in both strikeouts (201) and WHIP (0.841) as well as 2nd in ERA (2.21). Scherzer actually has a case of double revenge against the Marlins, who not only benefited from his early exit last time out, but were able to beat him (2-1) back on 6.21 despite Scherzer taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning! Scherzer has also recorded at least 9 K's in every start but one dating back to Memorial Day.

The pitcher Scherzer will face off against tonight is the same one he faced off with in the abbreviated outing back on 8.1. That would be Chris O'Grady, who was about as undeserving of a win as undeserving can be that day. O'Grady lasted only three innings and gave up six runs (2 HR's), but somehow Miami was able to claw its way back to a 7-6 victory. The Marlins are 4-1 in O'Grady's five starts so far, but his ERA (5.40) and WHIP (1.600) indicate that record is quite lucky. The Marlins' offense has also been pretty non-existent of late (.210 BA L7 games), so facing Scherzer, support for O'Grady is likely to be minimal, if not completely non-existent. The Nats should win this one "going away." 8* Run Line Washington (-1.5)

8* Run Line NY Mets (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Mets +1.5. With another loss yday (7-4), the Mets are now 0-5 head to head w/ the Dodgers in 2017. That record isn't terribly surprising given where the two teams currently reside in the standings. The Dodgers have the best overall record in MLB (78-32) and have won an astounding 43 of their past 50 games. The Mets, meanwhile, have dropped 8 of 10 to fall 10 games below the "Mendoza Line" (.500). But sweeping the same team twice is becoming less and less commonplace in today's game (parity!) and tonight marks the Mets' FINAL chance in '17 to beat LA. I did play them yday as the pitching matchup was far too slanted in the Dodgers' favor. However, that's not the case tonight. I realize I said the same thing back on Friday, but who could have imagined Yu Darvish's National League debut going as well it di? I do not anticipate the same level of effectiveness tonight from Hyun-Jin Ryu. 

Consider that the Dodgers have NEVER swept a season series from the Mets in their history. The team's 43-7 pace is the best mark over a 50-game span since ... 1912! At some point, there will have to be some semblence of regression. The team has certainly benefited from a number of career years from various players and their record in one-run games is a fortuitous 19-10. Playing tonight's game the way we are (Mets +1.5) can at least counteract that good fortune. The Mets actually led 3-0 last night, scoring all three of those runs in the first inning, an advantage they held all the way until the sixth. But then they allowed LA to score seven straight times over the final four frames. All seven runs scored were the product of a home run. 

Ryu is coming off one of his better outings of the season as he held the Giants scoreless over seven innings. But that's a bottom two offense in all of baseball he was up against. His start previous to that one came at home against an AL team (Minnesota) that had to adjust to not having a DH. Ryu rarely goes deep into games anymore. In fact, that last start marked the first time he went at least six innings since June 5th. Eight of his last 10 outings have seen him last six innings or fewer. As for Mets' starter Steven Matz, yes, he's struggling but at least he's 2-0 all-time vs. LA (in the regular season) w/ a 2.51 ERA. 8* Run Line NY Mets (+1.5)

10* Philadelphia (3:10 ET): Surprise! We're doing an "about face" here and doing an 180 degree turn for this game. Yesterday, I was on the Rockies, who unsurprisingly downed the Phillies, 8-5 (jumped out to an early 5-0 lead and never looked back). Everything I said about the Phillies in my analysis still rings true, but the big key for Sunday is that they appear to have what is a decided edge in starting pitching w/ Aaron Nola toeing the rubber this afternoon. Furthermore, I'll point out that even in defeat, the Phils have outhit the Rockies in both games this weekend. Overnight, the money line did some "strange things," meaning it moved in favor of the road team despite the majority of bets being on the other side. I'll call for Philadelphia to end its five-game losing streak here. 

I've now played against the Phils four times in the last five days, winning every time obviously. They were swept by the Angels, who I took in every game, in a three-game series to start the week. The one game that I laid off was Friday's 4-3 loss here at Coors Field. Last night saw them dig a hole that was too deep to climb out of. Despite all that, I'm prepared - at least for a day - to offer up a rare endorsement. Nola (more on him in a bit) is the primary reason, but it should also be talked about the Rockies have been downright mediocre for the last month or so. They are four games below .500 dating back to June 20th. Their YTD run differential is not close to the top three teams in the National League: Los Angeles, Washington and Arizona. 

I actually faded Nola the last time he started (Tuesday), but that was an awful spot for the team has they had to go out West on no rest (hosted Atlanta Monday afternoon) while the Angels had the previous day off. Nola still only allowed 2 ER in 6 IP, but it was not enough as the Phils ended up losing 7-1. Still, it kept a streak alive of Nola allowing 2 ER or fewer in eight consecutive starts. He's obviously pitched a lot better than his record indicates. Over those L8 starts, he has a 1.66 ERA w/ a 63-15 KW ratio. Opponents are batting just .205 off him and have a .575 OPS. Nola clearly gets the edge here over Colorado's Jeff Hoffman, who has an ugly 10.38 ERA and 2.385 WHIP his L3 starts. In seven home starts, Hoffman has a 7.05 ERA and 1.757 WHIP. Starting pitching is still what matters most in handicapping MLB and this is a rare time when the Phillies have a huge edge in that department. The team has actually played better than its record this year as they have the run differential of a 44-win team, not a 39-win team. 10* Philadelphia

8* Pittsburgh (1:35 ET): The Pirates sure have had their issues w/ the "bottom rung" of the National League lately. The team's last four series have seen them go a combined 4-7 against the Padres, Giants and Reds. This is the second go-around during this timeframe w/ SD, whom they lost to last night, 5-2. Another loss and that means they would have dropped 2 of 3 in each of the last four series. I was on the Bucs when they took Friday's series opener, 10-6, and I'll jump back on them again Sunday (laid off yday) as they go for that elusive series win. San Diego, despite its minor success vs. Pittsburgh, still has the worst run differential in all of baseball (-134) and that includes some very poor numbers on the road as they're 20-33 and being outscored by 1.6 runs per game.

Jameson Taillon last pitched for the Pirates last Tuesday and things did not go well at all as he allowed eight runs and 11 hits in 3 2/3 IP to the Reds. Hard as this may be to believe, but that was actually an IMPROVEMENT over his previous start when he allowed 10 runs (9 earned) in 3 IP at San Francisco. He did not pitch in the previous series w/ the Padres. While there's no "sugarcoating" how bad Taillon has been in those L2 starts, I believe there's a great shot he'll improve dramatically on Sunday. You have to look back and note that his ERA was 3.04 as of late July as he'd allowed 2 ER or fewer five times in his L7 starts. Furthermore, it always helps a pitcher to face these Padres, who rank dead last in MLB (30th) in runs scored as well as team batting average and OBP. Taillon's only prior start vs. them (came last year) saw him toss eight scoreless innings. 

Also helpful here to Taillon is that his counterpart Clayton Richard is also struggling. Richard has allowed 4+ ER in six of his previous seven outings, the one exception coming against the Phillies, who have the worst overall record in MLB. Richard is just three starts removed from allowing 10 ER himself in a start. He's allowed nine more in the last two as well as 19 hits in 14 IP. Not surprisingly then, Richard has a 7-15 TSR for the season, including 3-7 on the road. His overall numbers are inferior to those of Taillon. Fading an awful team like the Padres when they're off a win just makes sense to me. Over the L3 seasons, they are 46-86 in day games and this season has seen them get outscored by 2.4 rpg in them! 8* Pittsburgh

10* Run Line San Francisco (9:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Giants +1.5. San Fran suffered yet another excruciating loss w/ Madison Bumgarner on the hill last night, 2-1 here at home to Arizona. It was their second time in less than a week that they lost by one run w/ "MadBum" on the hill. There can be no sugarcoating what a "nightmare" season that has been for the Giants, who are -31.6 units at the betting window, thanks to 69 losses, 17 of which have been by one run (three in the last seven days!). In fact, only three teams in all of baseball have played more one-run games this season than the Giants' 34. One of them is Arizona, who has played 37. So given that and what happened last night, the RL seems like a very logical option to me for tonight. 

The Giants were ML favorites w/ Bumgarner (1-8 TSR) on the hill last night, but now that he's been beaten the script has been predictably "flipped" for tonight and very well could be for tomorrow as well. The starter going tonight is Chris Stratton, who is making just his 2nd career start. His 1st came all the way back on July 6th (at Detroit) and while he allowed five runs (in 6 IP), note that he was summoned to start just 20 minutes before the scheduled first pitch due to Johnny Cueto (who was supposed to go) having an inner ear infection. That obviously made it a tough spot, especially consider it was an AL park to boot, meaning he had to deal w/ a DH. Here, it will be an Arizona team that doesn't score nearly as much on the road as it does at home (saw that last night!). In fact, on the current road trip (we're eight games in so far), the D'backs have been held to four or fewer runs six times and they're batting just .218. Their scoring average dips a full run and a half per game compared to at home and as a result they have a losing record (27-28) outside of Chase Field.

The D'backs will start Taijuan Walker in this game. His last four starts have all resulted in team losses, even though he's actually pitched pretty well. But the offense has failed to support him, averaging just 2.0 rpg in the four starts. Arizona has been quite profitable to bet on this season, but rarely are they in this price range on the road. In fact, it's just the EIGHTH time all year that they find themselves above -125 on the ML on the raod. Their 20 one-run wins are the MOST in all of MLB this season and I see the Giants doing no worse than a one-run loss here. 10* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5)

6* Colorado (8:10 ET): Though they've experienced their fair share of struggles on the road (what else is new?), the Rockies remain a formidable ballclub within the confines of Coors Field and overall are four games above .500 since the All-Star Break. This is a series that they should dominate. They beat the Phillies last night, 4-3, despite losing starter Kyle Freeman in the 1st inning (injury). The win improved them to an impressive 34-20 at home this year as they are averaging 6.2 rpg (most in MLB). As for the Phils, they're just 16-40 on the road and being outscored by a full run per game in those contests. So, like I said, this is a series set up for the Rockies to do well. Philly has yet to win a game in August as they continue to post the worst overall record in MLB. 

The Phillies did outhit the Rockies last night, 10-7, but led only briefly when they took a 3-2 lead in the top of the seventh. Colorado quickly tied the game up in the bottom half of that frame, then scored the go-ahead run in the bottom of the eighth. It was the second straight night that the Phillies' bullpen failed to protect a lead. What's surprising w/ the Rockies of late is that for four straight games, they've been held below their scoring average here at home. I will call for that streak to end here however as they face Nick Pivetta, who has an ugly 6.70 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in nine road starts this year. Pivetta did pitch well his last time out, but that was a) at home and b) against Atlanta. In two of his last three road starts, he's combined to allow 15 runs in just 7 2/3 IP and those came against two top offensive teams, Milwaukee and Arizona. Of course, as I said earlier, no team averages more runs per game in its home park than do the Rockies. 

Colorado counters here w/ Jon Gray, who has not been beaten in three home starts this season. Last time out, at Washington, it was a bit of a hard luck loss for Gray as he allowed only four hits in 7 IP at Washington, but two of them were home runs and the team lost 3-1. That was his 1st time allowing multiple HR's in a start this year. He's allowed 3 ER or less in six of eight starts overall. Consider that Philly is one of the lowest scoring teams in all of baseball (2nd to last in runs) and they've averaged just 3.0 rpg over the last week. So the "Coors effect" can only help them so much. As for this lofty price range, don't be scared off. The Rockies are 5-1 as a ML home fave of -175 or higher this season and 12-6 in that range the L3 seasons. They are #3 overall for the year in net units earned at the betting window (+16.8) while the Phils are 29th (-20.7). This is every bit the mismatch it appears to be on paper. 6* Colorado

10* Under Saskatchewan/British Columbia (7:00 ET): This is the lone divisional matchup on the Week 7 slate and it takes place in Western Canada w/ 4-2 B.C. hosting 2-3 Saskatchewan. As I've written previously, B.C. is a team that received a good amount of "Grey Cup love" in the offseason and they've somewhat justified that hype in a fast start to the season. Both losses came against Edmonton, who is still unbeaten. In my opinion, this is the best team in the league outside the province of Alberta. As for Saskatchewan, they're better than that 2-3 record, something they illustrated LW w/ a 38-27 win over Toronto. The Leos lost by a similar score (37-26) LW to the Eskimos, but the spread has grown throughout the course of the week, indicating the sharper dollars may be on them Saturday night. But the line has gotten a bit too high for my liking, thus I'll avoid the side altogether and instead look at the total.

Scoring has been on the rise this year in CFL. Entering this week, there is only one team (idle Montreal) whose games aren't averaging at least 54 total points per game. The first three games of Week 7 have all season 60+ pts scored w/ the Over a perfect 3-0. All of last week's games went Over as well w/ a minimum of 61 pts scored in all four. I'm calling for the Over trend to come to screeching halt tonight, however. This will be just the third road game for the Rough Riders. The first two saw them score only 16 and 10 pts respectively, both games staying Under. Keep in mind that their defense has allowed more than 27 pts in one game this season as well. 

The Leos may have gone Over in three straight, but I think their defense is better than the number of points allowed might seem to indicate. Note that Saskatchewan's 38-point effort (also gained season-high 435 total yds) last week came off a bye and was at the expense of a Toronto team whose defense ranks near the bottom of the league in terms of points per game allowed. On offense, the Lions are still w/o QB Jonathon Jennings and his absence was felt LW as the team scored only 26 pts, their second fewest in any game this season. Furthermore, their 319 total yds gained did mark a season-low. As a result, take the Under here. 10* Under Saskatchewan/British Columbia

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Over the L10 days, the Pirates have had their fair share of trouble w/ what would be fair to call "inferior" opponents. They've gone just 3-6 against the Giants, Padres and Reds, losing two of three games in all three series. Yesterday (had them!) marked the second straight series that they avoided what would have been embarrassing sweep by taking the finale. It was a 6-0 win over the Reds on Thursday, led by Andrew McCutcheon's play at the plate and in the field. As disappointing as the Bucs' recent play has been, they're still only 5.5 games out of first place in the NL Central. So there's no reason to give up hope yet. Meanwhile, you can't say the same for the Padres, who have the worst run differential in all of MLB (-133) and are 13 games back of the Wild Card. This series should go the Pirates way. Have I said that before recently? Yes. But this time, it happens.

Ivan Nova and Travis Wood both pitched in the last series between these teams, but not against one another. Still, Nova is out for revenge here after losing the second game of that series, 4-2, as he was the one charged w/ all four runs (in 5 IP). He did finish w/ 6 K's while not walking a single batter mind you. Of course, that was in Petco Park. Here in Pittsburgh, Nova has been much better this year w/ a 7-2 TSR, 2.83 ERA and 1.116 WHIP. I have to imagine he'll pitch better this time around as San Diego is a dreadful road team and anemic offensively. Not only are they being outscored by 1.7 rpg outside of Petco (19-32 record), but overall they are dead last in runs scored, team batting average and OBP. They rank 27th in slugging. They've gone five straight games scoring four runs or fewer. 

Wood won the series opener the last time these two clubs faced off, doing so by allowing just two runs (both coming in the 1st inning) on two hits. It was - easily - his most effective outing of the four to date. Acquired in the Trevor Cahill deal w/ Kansas City, Wood has yet to start a single road game this season! I'd look for him to struggle tonight. Consider that previous to his last start, Wood had not gone a full five innings this year. His ERA remains 6.63 and I find it highly unlikely that he could win another pitcher's duel, which is basically the Padres' only way to success as they just don't score enough runs consistently. I still feel the Pirates are capable of staying in playoff contention while SD is - in my opinion - still the worst team in baseball. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Hamilton (9:30 ET): This line is a direct result of what happened last week when the Ti-Cats were humiliated in Calgary, losing 60-1. The loss drops them to 0-5 SU (CFL's only winless team) and they're now a real ugly 7-20-2 ATS their last 29 games overall (1-8 ATS L9 road games). So, needless to say they're not being given much of a shot here (on the road) against the league's lone unbeaten, Edmonton, who moved to 5-0 last week w/ an impressive 37-26 home win over B.C. But it sure does appear as if the "sharp money" hasn't "taken the bait" in this one as the line has come down - rather significantly - despite the majority of bets actually being placed on the Eskimos. I'll take the points w/ the "unpopular" side here as well as there's no way Hamilton can be as bad as they were last week. They should come out highly motivated for this encounter.

In terms of the value we're getting here, look no further than the previous meeting for a point of reference. These teams met just two weeks ago, in Ontario, and Edmonton checked in as only a three-point favorite for that game. They won, but only by a score of 31-28. So you can see how much influence last week had on the oddsmakers here. We're now able to get several extra points of value that we wouldn't have otherwise. Note that Hamilton actually led that first meeting, 25-13, before succumbing to a fourth quarter comeback. They still led 28-23 w/ two minutes remaining and Edmonton did not take its first lead of the game until the GW TD was scored w/ 23 seconds to go. Close games have been the rule and not the exception in CFL this year, so taking points (especially this many) onlky seems natural.

Edmonton may be the league's lone unbeaten, but they are nowhere close to having the best scoring differential. That belongs to the rival Stampeders (+109). In fact, the Eskimos have only outscored their five opponents this year by a cumulative 23 points, or an average of LESS than 5.0 per game. They were nine-point favorites here at home back in Week 2, but failed to cover against Montreal in a 23-19 win. In fact, last week's win over B.C. was the team's first this year by more than four points. This is a classic "buy low" scenario as Hamilton is not as bad as it looked last week. 10* Hamilton

10* Seattle (8:15 ET): The Mariners failed to exact revenge for a sweep that took place early last month, at home, at the hands of the Royals. They did jump out to a 3-2 lead on Thursday, but the bullpen was unable to hold the lead and the final score ended up being 6-4 in the home team's favor. KC went into previous series (at Baltimore) having won 10 of 11, but the "sharp dollars" lined up against them in all three games and they were swept. Interestingly, like Seattle is here, Baltimore was seeking revenge for a prior sweep at the hands of the Royals. Unlike last night, the starting pitching matchup is certainly in the M's favor w/ James Paxton going. His recent form indicates that Seattle gets its revenge here against a KC team which I continue to maintain is "average at best."

Paxton has stepped up and become Seattle's top pitcher this year. He is coming off his finest month yet as he went 6-0 in July w/ a 1.37 ERA and as a result was named Pitcher of the Month (and rightly so!). He's allowed just SIX runs during that time (39 1/3 IP) and in the L4 starts his KW ratio is 34-1! It's a 0.45 ERA and 0.850 WHIP his L3 starts. He comes into tonight sporting a 13-inning scoreless streak after shutting out both the Red Sox and Mets, two of the higher scoring teams in baseball (at least on the road). The Royals' offense does not compared to either of those lineups as it only ranks 23rd in runs scored and 28th in OBP. Seattle being in this price range is a good thing as they're 29-9 the L3 seasons as a ML road fave of -125 to -175. Despite an inferior record compared to KC, the M's have the better overall run differential of these two teams.

The Royals counter w/ Jason Hammel, who has pitched well himself of late. But I cannot see the team winning for a third straight time as an underdog (would be fourth win in a row overall) w/ him on the mound. Of those last three starts, Hammel (0.947 WHIP) has factored into the decision only once, that being his last time out. KC won at Boston, 5-3, with Hammel going seven strong innings. But he's not the better starting pitcher here and I'm just not buying the Royals are as good as their 11-4 record over the L15 games might seem to indicate. They've pulled out a lot of come from behind victories (32 for the year!) and have still been outscored over the course of the year, despite a 55-51 record. Paxton should be the difference maker here. 10* Seattle

8* Run Line NY Mets (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Mets +1.5. Yes, it's a bit scary to try and fade the Dodgers right now (21-3 since July 4th!) and tonight's game bears significance in that it is Yu Darvish's debut wearing "the Blue." But at this price, getting Jacob deGrom and an additional 1.5 runs to work with (at home!) is simply too good to pass up. Plus, I'm not sold that there eventually won't be some "buyer's remorse" w/ Darvish as his Texas tenure ended in somewhat disastrous fashion w/ him giving up 10 runs in just 3 2/3 IP against a Miami team that is certainly not to be feared. The Mets lineup is capable of scoring and should give deGrom enough here that they do no worse than a one-run loss tonight. Take the 1.5. 

The Mets just dropped two of three in Colorado (tough place to play) w/ both losses coming by one run. They lost Thursday on a bases loaded walk. Tuesday's loss, also by a 5-4 score, also came in the final at-bat. So, the reality is that the Mets came very close to handing Colorado its first losing home series in over a month. (The win came by a score of 10-5 Wednesday, so they actually scored more runs than they gave up in the series). Again, I'm not too concerned w/ the runs allowed side of the ledger this evening, not w/ deGrom on the bump. He had won eight straight starts prior to taking the loss his last time out, a one-run decision. He's still allowed 2 ER or less in eight of his last nine starts. He comes in w/ a 2.27 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in 10 home starts this year. While he's never beaten LA in five career regular season tries, deGrom has posted in a 2.94 ERA in those starts. 

The Dodgers have the best record in baseball (76-32) and have outscored the opposition by 187 runs over the course of the year. Impressive as that sounds, the club has certainly enjoyed some good fortune in '17, getting career years from a number of players and going 19-10 in one-run games. Sure, the last time they lost a game to a team other than the Braves was July 2nd! They are an insane 41-7 their L48 games overall, but I'll point out that exactly half (7) of their last 14 wins have come by a one-run margin. Also, they aren't nearly as dominant on the road as they are at home. There's going to be a lot of pressure here on Darvish, whose TSR w/ Texas was only 9-13 this year. Let's also note that there is some fanfare here on the Mets side w/ top prospect Amed Rosario making his Citi Field debut tonight. 8* Run Line NY Mets (+1.5)

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): I've been "spot on" in this series so far (took the Angels in both games) and will call for them to finish off the sweep tonight. Yes, the Phillies came into Tuesday riding a 5-game win streak (2nd longest of the season!). But they were in a horrible spot, having to go cross-country in a day, as their series w/ Atlanta didn't conclude until Monday afternoon. The Angels had the edge of having Monday off and took full advantage by winning the series opener, 7-1. They scored seven more runs last night, this time holding the Phillies to none. So it's been a real lopsided series to date and I see no reason why that should change Thursday as the Angels have arguably their best starter going and as I've made clear over the L2 days - Philly is just a bad baseball team (worst record in all of MLB). 

The Phillies are very bad on the road (16-38) and have really struggled in IL play this season, going 4-12. They've been outscored by a full run per game away from home this year and AL teams are beating them by an average of 2.2 rpg! Last night marked the seventh time this season that they've been shutout. Considering the price tag on the Halos each of the last two nights, this seems like a real bargain w/ Philip Bridwell on the bump. The Angels have won the last four times Bridwell has started and his overall TSR is 7-1. Few, including the organization saw this (his success) coming, but a 0.823 WHIP in his L3 starts is no fluke. Each of those L4 starts have been quality as last time out he held Toronto to just one run on three hits over 7+ IP. It was his longest - and perhaps most impressive - outing to date. 

The Phillies have essentially given up on 2017 and rightfully so. They will trot out the youngest team in the majors the rest of the way w/ most of the players auditioning for next year. That will help over the long-term, but there will be growing pains in the short-term. Already this series has seen their best pitcher (Aaron Nola) get beat, so I don't have much faith in tonight's starter Jerad Eickhoff, even though the team has won each of his last two times out. But both of those starts were at home, the last one coming against lowly Atlanta. Eickhoff has also yet to win on the road (0-8 TSR!) and there's no real "hard luck" involved there as his ERA is 5.17 and his WHIP is 1.425. He gave up three home runs his last road start and Saturday saw him walk as many batters as he struck out (3). 8* LA Angels

10* Seattle (8:10 ET): Kansas City came into its previous series (at Baltimore) on a real roll (had won 10 of 11!), but the "sharp dollars" lined up against them on a game by game basis (I went against them twice) and they wound up on the wrong end of a three-game sweep at Camden Yards (outscored 15-3). Now they'll return home (for the first time in over a week) to host a team that they swept last month, Seattle. The Mariners lost yday, 5-1 at Texas, but overall the current road trip had gotten off to a pretty good start (won previous two days) and overall they'd won four in a row prior to yday's loss. If you're a regular, then you know that I'm a big fan of the revenge angle (for a sweep of 3+ games) and I'll support it here w/ a play on the underdog. 

Thursday night will mark the first time Trevor Cahill has started at Kauffman Stadium. Recently acquired in a trade from the Padres, Cahill's 1st start in a Royals uniform did not go so well as he allowed five runs and eight hits (two HR's) in just 4 IP. That game was actually KC's only loss in the 11-game stretch that predated the Orioles' series. Remember, it's a difficult transition for a pitcher going from the National to the American League (has to face DH). Cahill's 4-0 home record this year (0.72 ERA and 0.880 WHIP) is irrelevant now that he's out of the friendly pitching confines of Petco Park. The Royals' offensive decline from the last series is also a concern here as they managed only 15 hits in the 27 innings at Baltimore. Remember what I said the L2 times I went against this team - they are "average" at best.

Seattle is just 1.5 games back of KC for the 2nd Wild Card in the AL. I don't think either of these teams will end up getting it (will be either TB or LA), but the M's are definitely playing better now than they have all year. Whereas KC has been outscored this season (-12 run diff), Seattle is dead even in scoring compared to its opponents in 2017. They boast both the pitcher (James Paxton) and reliever (Edwin Diaz) of the month (July) on its roster. Paxton and Felix Hernandez will go the next two days, but tonight it will Yovani Gallardo, who beat Jacob deGrom his last time out by allowing just one run over 5 2/3 IP. Offensively, the Mariners are the superior club here as well. 10* Seattle

8* Dallas (8:00 ET): The Cowboys were a lock to improve last year, no matter who the QB was. Now the initial thought is that a returning Tony Romo (missed most of '15) would be an obvious improvement over the terrible play the team got under center from Brandon Weeden and Matt Cassel. However, enthusiam quickly had to be tempered when Romo was lost (again) in the preseason. But what no one foresaw was rookie Dak Prescott coming in and leading the team to a 13-3 SU record (top record in NFC). Now there is no doubt Dallas will win FEWER games in 2017 (what a difference a year makes!), but that doesn't matter here in the preseason. I do like them to win (and cover) tonight's HOF Game in Canton, Ohio.

Arizona is a team that regressed in 2016. Ironically, it was they (and not the Cowboys) that were supposed to be one of the top teams in the NFC last year. They were coming off their own 13-3 SU finish in '15 when they made it to (and got crushed in) the NFC Champ Game. Instead, they slipped down to 7-8-1, even though they actually outscored the opposition by 56 pts over the course of the season. Expect them to win more games this year. Long-term, an heir apparent for Carson Palmer must be found. I'll tell you who is NOT the man for that job - Blaine Gabbert - who will start this HOF Game. Gabbert is expected to play the entirety of the first half here, not a good sign considering he has been one of the worst QB's since coming into the league back in '11.

According to HC Bruce Arians, no starters will even suit up here for the Cardinals. Even backup QB Drew Stanton isn't expected to play. After Gabbert, it will be undrafted rookie Trevor Knight coming in under center. Even against what will likely be a pretty "vanilla" defense, I can't see the Cardinals scoring many points tonight. Reportedly, it was just a few days ago that the Cardinals had an "awful" practice (Arians' words). Now Dallas isn't going to play any of its starters either, but Kellen Moore is probably a more serviceable QB than Gabbert at this point. The Cowboys are also the deeper of these two teams right now. Were this a regular season game, I'd consider the Cardinals, but it's preseason and I'll side w/ "America's Team." 8* Dallas

10* Toronto (7:35 ET): Calgary has been the class of this league for the last several years and if you had any doubt that would continue into 2017, they sent a message "loud and clear" last Saturday w/ a 60-1 beatdown of Hamilton. But as good as the Stamps have been, I can't help but think this is a classic overlay as they now have hit to hit the road for the first time in three weeks. Their last road game, at Montreal, resulted in an outright 30-23 loss as four-point favorites. You can bet Toronto will be fired up for this one as the Argos are off a 37-28 loss at Saskatchewan, which also took place last Saturday. I'm always leery of laying points on the road, no matter the sport, and CFL is no different. Take the points here.

Toronto did not fare well against Calgary last season, as they were swept in the season series. They lost by 18 and 28 points respectively and going back further have actually dropped six in a row to the Stamps (last win was in '13). But even though they lost LW, the Argos are a better team this year than last. QB Ricky Ray has thrown for at least 300 yards in every game this season and as a result the offense is averaging an impressive 404 YPG. Their scoring average is "just" 25.3 points per game, but they've topped that in every game but one, a disappointing Week 2 effort where they lost to B.C., 32-15. The defense is allowing just 342 yards per game, so this team is a lot better than the 3-3 SU record shows. 

Meanwhile, all of Calgary's statistics are going to be skewed because of last week. It is interesting to note however, that the Stamps (4-1-1) are still "just" +66 YPG compared to their opponents while the Argos are +62 YPG, a very comparable number. In terms of yards per game gained, these are the top two offenses in the league right now. Tip your cap to the pivot Ray, who is on pace to break the legendary Doug Flutie's single-season passing mark of 6,619 yards. His fewest number of passing yards in a game this season is 323 and he's averaging 363 YPG. He's completing 69.2% of his pass attempts as well. That Toronto defense also happens to lead the league in sacks w/ 19, so don't be surprised if they make life for Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell quite uncomfortable. 10* Toronto

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Bucs' struggles against the Reds this year are nothing short of astounding. Not only have they dropped the first two games of this series (at home!), but they are now just 1-8 head to head w/ their NL Central rival this season. That makes little to no sense considering Cincy is just 35-62 against everyone else in the league. But, as I pointed out in yday's analysis, the Bucs are coming off B2B disappointing series against the Padres and Giants (two teams worse than the Reds), both times dropping two out of three. But, at PNC Park, I just can't see them getting swept. Not by Cincinnati, who is 19-34 on the road while being outscored by over a full run per game. I'll call for the Pirates' offense to "wake up" tonight and thus they'll avoid what would be an embarrassing sweep. 

The Pirates offense has been a major reason why the team is struggling to beat bad teams of late. Take the first two games of this series for example. After scoring in the bottom of the 1st on Tuesday, they would go another 13 innings w/o scoring a single run. Last night saw them tie the game in the bottom of the 6th, 2-2, but the bullpen couldn't hold. Looking back, the Pirates are batting a collective .210 their last seven games and have scored three runs or fewer SIX times during that stretch. Not surprisingly, the one exception represents their lone win (7-1 Sunday at San Diego) in the last week. I look for the slump to end today against Sal Romano, who walked SIX batters his last time out, the third time in five starts he's had more walks than K's. Not to be confused w/ the "Mad Men" character of the same name, Romano has a 1.707 WHIP overall.

Chad Kuhl gets the starting nod here for the Bucs and he's allowed 2 ER or less eight times in his L11 starts. So, he should be able to keep the Pirates in this one, something that Tuesday's starter (Jameson Taillon) failed to do. Kuhl has not allowed a single HR in his L5 starts, which is huge b/c the long ball is primarily how the Reds have been scoring in this series so far. Yes, the Pirates have struggled to score at home all season long. But I believe they'll score just enough in this one to get the 'W.' 8* Pittsburgh

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): As I anticipated, the Angels took full advantage of a favorable spot last night, beating the Phillies 7-1 in the opener of a three-game series. Philadelphia came in riding high off a sweep of the Braves and had won five in a row overall (2nd longest win streak of the season!). But they were also playing w/o rest after wrapping up that series vs. the Braves and had to make the cross-country flight. Meanwhile, the Angels had Monday off. That edge may not exist for tonight, but the Angels are still the better team - by a wide margin. Therefore, I'll come right back with them again tonight.

In case you haven't looked at the standings in awhile, the Phillies still have the worst overall record in all of baseball at 39-65. Yes, it's true that a number of teams have worst run differentials, which is a better indicator of overall play, but the fact remains the Phillies are a very bad team. They are 16-37 on the road, getting outscored by nearly a full run per game. They are also just 4-11 in Interleague Play this season. They also don't have a very good starter on the hill tonight. Jake Thompson, who went 3-6 w/ a 5.40 ERA last season, made his first big league start last week against Atlanta. While the Phils did win 10-3 and Thompson threw five scoreless innings, note he did allow seven baserunners. The Phillies' bullpen is also not good by the way.

Don't be scared off due to price range on the Angels here either. Yesterday actually marked the first time all year that they were higher than -175 on the money line! The win improved them to 8-2 in that range the L3 seasons. Yes, it's a small sample size but also indicative of how the Angels peform against bad teams (obviously that's the only time they are going to be this high on the ML. Tonight's starter JC Ramirez actually leads the staff in wins w/ 11. He was a hard luck loser his last time out (2-1 to Indians), but has also gone at least six innings while allowing four runs or fewer four straight starts. He should get plenty of run support here as the Angels are averaging 6.0 rpg over the last week. 8* LA Angels

8* Run Line St. Louis (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Cards +1.5. St. Louis was my only loss yday, but they only lost by one run, so in that regard this play certainly makes a lot of sense. The loss was a "double whammy" of sorts for the Redbirds, who are now not only 3.5 games back of the Brew Crew, but also 5.5 behind the first place Cubs (who also won Tuesday) in the NL Central. The Wild Card, at this point, looks like an unrealistic goal. So the division is their only shot to make the playoffs and thus this series takes on an added importance. Yes, I realize the same holds true for Milwaukee, but as discussed in yday's analysis, these two clubs rate virtually even (almost identical run differentials). Therefore, the "added insurance" that the RL provides seems to be a nice luxury to have in this one.

Note that all three runs that the Brewers scored off of Carlos Martinez last night came in the first inning. That three-run inning held as St. Louis could only muster a pair of runs, although they dd outhit the Brewers for the game, 7-5. After that 1st inning, all Milwaukee's lineup could manage was a pair of infield singles. While losing like that w/ (arguablly) your best starter on the hill is tough, it also bodes well for tonight's starter Luke Weaver, who makes his second start replacing the injured Adam Wainwright in the rotation. Weaver's first start was not great as he allowed four runs in 5 IP, but it also didn't help that his offense was shutout. His only mistake was a grand slam, which obviously accounted for all the runs allowed. "I thought Luke did a terrific job," manager Mike Matheny said. "His stuff looked sharp. It was one rough inning there." I'd agree w/ that assement and look for better overall results tonight. 

Milwaukee will counter w/ Brent Suter, a pitcher that has all of a sudden caught fire. He hasn't lost over his L5 turns and has a 1.50 ERA. He was dominant his last time out, holding the Cubs w/o a run for seven innings of four-hit ball. But that kind of performance will be difficult to replicate. The Cards actually saw Suter in his first start of the year and were able to scored three times off him in only 4 2/3 IP. For the record, only the Phillies have played more one-run games this season than the Cardinals' 36. Three of their last four games have been decided by one run as have five of their L10. Three of Milwaukee's last four games have also been decided by one run. No worse than a one-run loss here for the road team. 8* Run Line St. Louis (+1.5)

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Pirates string of disappointing performances against less than stellar competition continued on Monday w/ an embarrassing 9-1 loss to the Reds at home. Previously, the Bucs had dropped two of three at San Diego and two of three at San Francisco, two of the only three teams in the National League w/ a worse overall record than the Reds. Cincy has given Pittsburgh a curious amount of trouble in 2017 as yday's win gives them a 7-1 edge in the season series. Clearly, if you're a Bucs fan, this is NOT what you wanted to see for the stretch run, particularly after the team came out of the All-Star Break by winning seven of eight. But they can still salvage what should have been an advantageous stretch of games. Take them here. 

  Home teams don't like being embarrassed in the manner the Pirates were yday, so there should be some increased motivation here. Not to mention, the Pirates still only trail the Cubs by 6.5 games in the NL Central standings. Charged w/ turning this thing around tonight is starter Trevor Williams, who was a hard-luck loser his last time out. In a 2-1 loss to the Giants, Williams gave up just one run on five hits in 6 IP. While he has a 4.12 ERA here at PNC Park, his 1.118 WHIP indicates he's pitched better than that. The Reds have not faced him in '17. Also, take out a rough first start of the year (had been working out of the bullpen) and Williams' numbers get even better.

The Reds are not a good team, which is obvious by their 18-34 record and the fact they've been outscored by an average of 1.2 rpg in those contests. Tonight marks the first time they've been off B2B wins since the All-Star Break. So, now seems like a really nice time to fade. Especially w/ Robert Stephenson on the hill. A reliever previously, Stephenson has had difficulty adjusting to his new role of starter. This will be the third try and I don't think it will be the charm considering his 7.45 ERA and 2.174 WHIP so far. He's only lasted a total of 9 2/3 innings as well, which means the poor Reds' bullpen will come into play. Considering this team's awful 36-62 record against every team besides Pittsburgh, their mastery in the season series is confounding to say the least. 8* Pittsburgh

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): The Phillies come into this game riding a five-game win streak (just swept Atlanta), which is their second longest win streak of this entire season! (They won 6 straight back in late April, a streak which also included a sweep of the Braves, coincidentally). They would also appear - on paper - to have the edge in starting pitching for tonight's series opener against the Angels. But you don't have to work for MLB's scheduling department to realize this is a HORRID spot for the Phils as they have to make the cross-country trip in 24 hours while the Halos are rested (had Monday off). Even w/ the five-game win streak, Philly still has the worst record in baseball mind you, at 39-64. That includes a 16-36 mark on the road and 4-10 in Interleague Play. 

The Angels are a team I believe can make a push for that second Wild Card in the American League, a race that remains wide open. After taking the first two games in Toronto over the weekend, they lost 11-10 on Sunday, but offense certainly wasn't a problem w/ a total of 26 runs scored in the three game series. Offense has been an issue for this team in 2017 (27th in runs scored!), but remember they were also w/o Mike Trout for a significant period of time. With 19 of the next 28 games at home, this is the time to make their move. What about the other side of the ledger (pitching), though? Well, Ricky Nolasco has had his issues w/ the long ball, but I also watched him (in person) pitch well against Cleveland last Wednesday. Though the team lost 10-4, that's misleading as the bullpen came in and did a horrendous job. Going back, four of Nolasco's last six starts have been quality and one of them was a complete game shutout here at home. He's also had to pitch opposite some of the best pitchers in the AL, like Chris Sale and Carlos Carrasco. 

Here, Nolasco will face a National League lineup that averages less than 4.0 rpg. Sure, the Phils get to benefit from the DH in this series, but will that be enough to counteract their usual road woes? I think not. Plus, there's a "market correction" that's likely to take place sooner rather than later w/ the Phils as a team that has the worst overall record in baseball isn't going to start winning consistently all of a sudden. All five wins came at home and sweeping Atlanta really isn't all that impressive, especially when you consider the last three have all been by one run! Aaron Nola is off a very strong July and has a 1.49 ERA/0.972 WHIP his L7 starts. But the team is just 3-5 when he starts on the road and he had control issues (4 walks) in his one start at an AL park this year. This is not just a game, but a series where I really like the home team. 8* LA Angels

10* St. Louis (7:40 ET): Turning to the NL Central, the Brewers have been on top of the Cardinals for virtually all of 2017. But by no means is that any kind of definitive statement that the Brew Crew are the better ballclub. In fact, their run differentials have been fairly comparable throughout and entering today, the Cards' is slightly better (by one run!). St. Louis has allowed the fewest number of runs in the division this year, so if they can get their offense on track, making the playoffs is not out of the question. They scored only five runs in four games vs. Arizona over the weekend (at home!), but still walked away w/ a series split. Fortunately for them, Milwaukee scored only five runs in three games vs. the Cubs, losing twice. Furthermore, they have failed to get a hit in their L31 chances w/ RISP! Not only do I feel the Cards have the better starting pitcher tonight, but I feel they are the better team overall! 

Carlos Martinez might have a 10-11 team start record attached to his name, but that is misleading as he checks in w/ a 3.52 ERA and 1.190 WHIP. In each of his last two starts, he's gotten the kind of offensive support we are looking for tonight w/ the Cards scoring a total of 21 runs in those games and winning both. Last time out, Martinez struggled some, giving up 5 ER in 6 IP, but he did have 8 K's and that was his most in any July start. Typically, he has always pitched well against Milwaukee as he has 5-2 record w/ a 1.75 ERA all-time. The last time he faced them was May 2nd when he held them w/o a run for seven innings and to only four hits. Considering the way the Brewers' lineup has struggled of late, I expect a quality start from Martinez here. 

The Brew Crew came out of the All-Star Break by winning B2B games over lowly Philadelphia. That got them to a season-best 11 games over .500, but since then they're just 3-11. Jimmy Nelson is probably the wrong starter to try and turn things around, at least when facing St. Louis. I say that because Nelson has NEVER beaten the Redbirds in 11 career tries, going 0-8 w/ a 7.01 ERA. That's the key here. The Cards have already beaten him twice in '17, scoring seven times off him in 11 innings. Nelson has been hurt by a lack of run support this season and it certainly doesn't help that his offense comes into this series batting a collective .196 over the last week. They have not scored more than two runs in four consecutive contests. 10* St. Louis

8* Baltimore (7:05 ET): I took the Orioles last night and sharp money moved them to a slight favorite before the first pitch. They won 2-1, in walkoff fashion, as Craig Gentry singled home the GW run. Though it took them until the final at-bat to take their first and only lead, that was an impressive win for the Orioles as Kansas City came in as winners of 10 of 11. The much maligned Ubaldo Jimenez held the Royals to just one run on five hits (7 IP) and as I keep saying, this is a much different (i.e. better) team w/ Zach Britton occupying the backend of the bullpen. Yes, Baltimore has its issues (-71 run differential), but they are a better team at Camden Yards (31-21) and have an even better starter going tonight (Dylan Bundy). I look for them to make it two straight over KC.

Bundy had been the Orioles' rotation's most profitable starter until yday when Jimenez got the job done. Bundy certainly struggled some in July w/ only one quality outing out of four (allowed 5+ ER three times), but rarely does he pitch poorly in consecutive starts. He pitched well enough to win against Kansas City earlier this year, allowing just two runs and four hits in six innings, but unfortunately it was not enough as the O's fell 3-2 in what ended up being a series sweep for the Royals. That sweep set up yday's play, however, and now I feel it's time for a little payback from the Baltimore perspective. Remember what I said in yday's analysis too - despite their recent winning ways KC is nothing more than the definition of average. 

Royals starter Ian Kennedy has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts, but that's in spite of a 4.32 ERA during that stretch. Granted, he's pitched well in two of those three starts. But his three career starts against the Orioles have resulted in a 6.17 ERA. Baltimore is one of three teams he's never beaten in his career. The Kansas City offense had been performing way above its normal production recently, so yday's "silence" at the plate was NOT a surprise to me. They remain tied for 22nd in runs scored and are 28th in OBP. I'll call for them to lose B2B games here, something that has not occurred in two weeks. 8* Baltimore

10* Under Rays/Astros (8:10 ET): Houston has been the class of the American League all season and remains my pick to win the World Series. But July has been a pretty mediocre month for them as they're just 14-9 overall (8-7 since Break) after a humbling 13-1 loss to the Tigers on Sunday. Another shaky performance from Lance McCullers leaves them probably in the market for another starter for the stretch run, but what about an offense that has scored a grand total of 15 times the L5 games? A curious factoid w/ this Astros team is that while they're 38-15 on the road (6.9 runs per game!), they're "only" 30-21 at home and the scoring average dips down to 4.8 rpg. Therefore, facing a Tampa Bay lineup that is batting a collective .219 its L7 games (3.6 rpg), an Under play seems more than reasonable in this spot.

The Rays avoided what would have been a four-game sweep at Yankee Stadium yday by winning 5-3, leading start to finish. But they're stil in dire need of a turnaround as they've ceded control of the second Wild Card spot in the American League to the Royals. Somewhat incredibly, the Rays' offense has scored more than five runs in a game just ONCE in the entire month of July. Fortunately for tonight, they'll have Alex Cobb on the mound to keep them in the game. Over his L3 starts, Cobb has a 1.99 ERA and 0.838 WHIP. He's allowed only 5 runs in 22 2/3 IP (all on home runs) and going back further he's 5-1 w/ a 2.24 ERA his L9 starts, eight of those being quality. The Under is also 5-0-1 his L6 starts. Another thing to like from the Rays perspective here is that their "new" bullpen (three recent additions) delivered five scoreless innings Sunday. 

Houston's lineup is nowhere near full strength right now as both Carlos Correa and George Springer are both out. Jose Altuve, as good as he is, can't continue to carry the offensive load all by himself and his numbers are certainly due to regress following an otherworldly July. The Astros have gone five straight games w/ nine hits or fewer and that was against the poor pitching staffs of the Phillies and Tigers. I do see tonight's starter, Charlie Morton, giving them a better start than what they got from McCullers yday. Morton actually has a 0.964 WHIP his L3 starts after he threw seven innings of shutout ball his last time out. He allowed only three hits and struck out nine batters. Yes, that came at a NL park, but it's not like the Rays' offense is substantially better as they would be tied for 8th in runs scored among the Senior Circuit. Only six teams have allowed fewer runs than the Astros this year, whose staff is 5th in WHIP and fourth in opponents' batting average. 10* Under Rays/Astros

8* Run Line Baltimore (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Orioles +1.5. Back in early May, these two teams faced off (in Kansas City) and the Royals swept the three-game set, which in retrospect was the beginning of their turnaround. Here in Baltimore this week, I do NOT anticipating the Royals having the same level of success they did over two months ago. Sure, they arrive in Camden Yards having won 10 of 11 (only loss in extra innings) and are now a season-best seven games above .500. But the numbers show that this club is the definition of average as they've scored and allowed an identical number of runs over the course of the season. Baltimore may own one of the AL's worst run differentials, but they're a better team at home where their record is 30-21. They also just won B2B games in Texas. No worse than a one-run loss here for the home team.

The Royals remain fairly "offensively challenged" as they rank 22nd in runs scored and 28th in OBP. Yesterday's victory could be considered somewhat "fortunate" as they trailed 3-1 heading into the 8th, which is when Alex Gordon's two-run triple proved to be the difference in a four-run rally. Save for 16-2 and 16-4 wins over the Tigers, KC has hardly been dominating opponents during this 10-1 stretch of theirs. Something to keep an eye on is that while they've "cleaned up" as underdogs this season (+22.6 units), they have lost money as ML favorite (-8.7). This will also be just the second time ALL SEASON that they've been listed higher than -125 on the ML in a road game! So, oddsmakers have taken notice and we should react accordingly. Note that all three games these teams played at Kauffman Stadium back in May were decided by one run!

A big key for the Orioles moving forward is the return of closer Zach Britton to his regular closing role. For the first time since April, he worked consecutive games (Sat-Sun) and it's no coincidence that Baltimore won both. Ubaldo Jimenez will be starting things off tonight and in order to get to Britton, he'll have to pitch similar to how he did his last time out when he held the Rays to just two runs on three hits over 6 IP. I was also impressed by his season-high 9 K's in that start. Kansas City will be going w/ lefty Danny Duffy here. Mirroring his team's overall results, Duffy struggles a bit more on the road w/ a 4.09 ERA and 1.364 WHIP. He also remains a fairly low volume pitcher in terms of strikeouts. I think it's time the Royals started "giving some back." 8* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5)

8* Run Line San Francisco (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Giants +1.5. Madison Bumgarner is now the starter for San Fran as they try and avoid a sweep. Bumgarner used to be a somewhat "automatic" play, but this year (cut short by injury), he has a 1-6 team start record w/ that one win coming his last time out. That's somewhat emblematic of this "lost" season for the Giants, who are now 40-65 and have the second worst record and run differential in all of baseball. They enter tonight trailing the rival Dodgers by an astounding 33.5 games! Los Angeles has been on a remarkable roll not just of late (won 7 straight!), but for the last couple months as they are a stunning 38-6 their L44 games! But I still believe Bumgarner being on the hill "means something" and in this case, I feel the Giants will do no worse than a one-run loss and the big lefty does give them their best shot at a win in this series.

While he does have the 1-6 team start record, it should be pointed out that only one of MadBum's seven starts this year has not been quality. Last time out, he went only five innings, but gave up just one run (on six hits) as the Giants got the win, 11-3 over Pittsburgh. It was a much needed result for him and hopefully a turning point, at least for him individually. On the road this year, Bumgarner has a 2.89 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, so it's not as if he's pitched poorly. Nor has he pitched poorly in his career vs. LA as he owns a 14-9 record and 2.70 ERA in 27 career appearances. The Giants lost by just a run yday (2-1) and let's note they have played the third highest number of one-run games in all of baseball (32).

The Dodgers are 73-31 overall and have the best record in baseball for a variety of reasons. Chief among them is that they are getting career years from a number of key players. I do not believe their current pace is anywhere near sustainable and whether it's in the final two months of the regular season, or the playoffs, I believe some regression is inevitable. Furthermore, tonight are able to go against the one member of the starting rotation that has a losing record, that being Hyun-Jin Ryu, whose TSR is 6-8 and he has a 4.40 ERA and 1.452 WHIP. Rarely does Ryu go deep into games and he lasted just five innings in his own return from the DL, last time out. Bumgarner is the better starter in this one and that makes this one of the few times the Giants have a real fighting chance against their rival in 2017. By the way, the teams are 6-6 head to head this season w/ half of the games decided by one run! 8* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5)

10* Pittsburgh (4:40 ET): The Bucs have burned me, not once, but twice in this series so far. But I believe they'll avoid the sweep on Sunday. Apparently, they forgot to pack their bats for this West Coast trip, or rather lost them after the first game. I say that b/c, following a 10-3 win over the Giants on Monday, the team has scored three runs or fewer (eight total) in four consecutive losses to the Giants and Padres. In the context of this series, that's a real shame because they're up against the lowest-scoring team in baseball, who has the worst overall run differential as well. Then there's something I've discussed each of the last two days, which is the fact SD came into this series having actually been outscored by about a full run per game here at Petco Park (one of the worst marks in MLB), making their winning home record somewhat of a "mirage." On the flip side, Pittsburgh had a positive run differential on the road despite a losing record. In my opinion, a four-game win streak only makes the Padres better fade material as in my view they're still one of, if not THE, worst team in the sport. 

Gerrit Cole is a major reason to like the Pirates in this one. He should make sure that a SD offense which not only ranks last in runs scored, but also last in OBP, 29th in team batting average and 27th in slugging, stays anemic. Cole has a 4-0 TSR here in July, all quality starts, as he's allowed just seven runs in 25 IP. The native Californian is 5-1 his L8 starts w/ a 3.04 ERA (allowed 2 ER or less SEVEN times!). He's always pitched well vs. the Padres as is evident by a 1.52 ERA in four career starts against them. Cole was the starter the last time Pittsburgh won a game, so that should give the team some much needed confidence as they prepare to play the final game of what has been a very disappointing road trip. These four consecutive losses to two of the worst teams in baseball have really hurt the team's chances of remaining relevant, even in a weak NL Central.

San Diego's Clayton Richard probably deserves better than a 7-14 TSR as he's induced a NL best 247 ground ball outs this season. But he's still got a 5.37 ERA and 1.610 WHIP in those 21 starts and lately things have gone from "bad to worse" w/ a 9.86 ERA and 2.422 WHIP his last three. He's allowed a stunning 37 hits in 17 2/3 IP during that time. To put that number in its proper context, note that Cole has allowed only 44 hits over his L8 starts, a span of 50 1/3 IP. Therefore, I expect the Pirates' anemic offense to "wake up" on Sunday. The Padres are just 9-21 when on a win streak of 3+ games the L3 seasons (3-6 this season) and their only win streak longer than the current one (4 games) this season was 5 games, back on Memorial Day Weekend. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Atlanta (1:35 ET): The Phillies are in a position we don't see them in very often and that's on the precipice of a three-game sweep. The team w/ the worst overall record in MLB (37-64) is certainly used to being on the WRONG end of these situations, but this weekend we find them having taken the first two games at Atlanta's expense. I look for the Phils to fail to get the job done on Sunday. Overall, the club has won three in a row. The last time we saw them produce such a streak was early June when they won four in a row. The only other win streak of 4+ games this year occurred all the way back in April, a season-best six straight wins. The Braves have played better on the road this season and daytime starts are typically when knuckleballer R.A. Dickey (today's starter) is most effective.

Yesterday's game is really one that Atlanta let slip away as they allowed the Phillies to score a run in the both the 8th and 9th innings, which tied things up. Philly then won in the 11th. The Braves finished w/ the edge in hits (10-8) for the game and it should be noted the teams were also relatively even in that department (12-11 in Phils' favor) in a 10-3 game Friday. The series opener saw the home team strike w/ one big inning (7 runs), other than that we've basically seen in this series what we've largely seen all season from a lineup tied for 28th in runs scored. The good news for today is that Dickey has consistently pitched well in his career vs. the Phillies, turning in a 2.98 ERA in 14 starts, including a game back on 6.8 where he allowed only one run on three hits in 7 IP. He struck out eight while walking zero batters as well. Prior to allowing four runs to both Chicago and Arizona, Dickey had allowed 1 or 0 ER in five straight outings as well as six of the last seven. As mentioned before, his knuckleball is typically more effective in the daytime. 

The Phillies' counter w/ Vince Velasquez, who also allowed 4 ER in a shorter than expected start his last time out. Velasquez has pitched only twice since May due to an elbow injury, so this is somewhat of a "lost year" for him. In six home starts this season, his ERA is 6.82 and his WHIP is 1.649. Not good numbers, especially when considering the Phillies' offense is likely to regress - significantly - in this matchup. 8* Atlanta

10* Over Hamilton/Calgary (9:30 ET): The Stampeders, routinely the class of this league, are off to another fine start this year at 3-1-1. But at the same time, they find themselves in the unaccustomed position of looking UP at a pair of teams in the Western Division standings, those being Edmonton and B.C.  That makes tonight's home game against winless Hamilton (0-4) a spot where they cannot afford to trip up and as you can tell from the line, the oddsmakers are pretty confident that they will not. But the number is too high for my tastes and instead we'll be looking at the total. Part of what makes this such a mismatch on paper is the fact the Stamps are one of three teams in the CFL to currently be averaging more than 30 PPG. The Ti-Cats are second to last in points allowed, giving up 35.2 PPG. Therefore, I'm on the Over.

In fact, the Ti-Cats' have given up a minimum of 31 pts every game this year and as a result their L3 games have all gone Over the total. Only their own 15-pt effort in Wk 1 has kept them from a perfect Over mark so far. With the defense already surrendering an average of 472 yards per game, I expect more struggles here against a Calgary offense which puts up 405.6 YPG. The Stamps ended a three-week decline in pts scored LW w/ a 27-10 win over Saskatchewan here at home where they have not lost a game since 2015. Last year, they went 10-0 SU at McMahon Stadium, averaging 36.9 PPG in the process. They scored 43 in the home opener this year, avenging LY's Grey Cup loss to Ottawa. Needless to say, I expect the Stamps to do most of the "heavy lifting" in helping this game go Over the total.

Hamilton will be a desperate team Sat night, thus I expect them to "air it out." They've seen their point total increase w/ each passing week, going from 15 to 20 to 26 to 28 points. I think QB Zach Callaros happens to be a lot better than he's shown and I would not be shocked if the Ti-Cats increase their scoring for a fifth consecutive week. Shocking is the fact that the Under has cashed in each of the last NINE meetings between these teams. That's a streak that's probably due to end sooner rather than later, so why not here?  Hamilton games have averaged 57.4 PPG this year while Calgary home games have averaged 59.5 PPG. 10* Over Hamilton/Calgary

10* Pittsburgh (8:40 ET): The Pirates quickly jumped out to a 2-0 lead last night here in San Diego, which had me thinking 3-0 sweep for the day (I'd already cashed both the Under on Rays-Yankees plus my *10* AL Game of the Month on the Rangers). But, sadly, from that point forward the Bucs did nothing - and I do mean nothing. They managed only one hit the rest of the game, facing Travis Wood and three different Padres' relievers, and ended up losing 3-2. That result kind of shocks me as SD has now won three in a row, unremarkable in the grand scheme of things, but for this team it's something to be celebrated. I said in yday's analysis that the Padres have the worst run differential in all of MLB (now -129) and that's still the case w/ only two other teams below -90. They are just 2-6 this season when on a win streak of 3+ games (8-21 L3 seasons!), so yday's win only serves to make them even better fade material for Saturday. Consider this is a "mea culpa" of sorts.

Something else I talked about yday was the respective records of Pittsburgh on the road and San Diego at home and how both were misleading. This three-game win streak actually has SD above .500 at Petco Park this season (27-25), but they're being outscored here by nearly a full run per game! To put that in its proper context, only three other teams in all of baseball - Toronto, Atlanta and Minnesota - are being outscored by a wider margin at home this season. (Look to fade all 4 down the stretch at home?). Meanwhile, the Pirates' losing road record (now 23-30) is also misleading in the sense that they have actually OUTSCORED the opposition in such games. Maybe I was wrong yday, but I still look for these discrepancies to be rectified over the remainder of the season. 

San Diego made a pitching change yday, turning to Wood instead of Dinelson Lamet. The latter will now go tonight. He's got a 7.36 ERA and 1.840 WHIP his L3 starts, so I'd look for the Bucs' bats to bounce back this evening. Speaking of bouncing back, that's what I look for Pittsburgh's starter Ivan Nova to do as well. Last time out, he was hit hard, allowing 7 ER in 5 IP. But that was at Coors Field, a far different environment than the one he will pitch in tonight. The Padres have the most anemic offense in the game, ranking last in runs scored and OBP, 29th in team batting average and 27th in slugging. Nova can stil claim to be having a quality season, despite what happened last time around, which was - easily - his worst effort to date. Prior to that, he'd never allowed more than 4 ER in any start this year. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Houston (6:10 ET): Coming into 2017, many (myself included) were high on the Astros, believing they had the roster construct to win a World Series. We're now four months into the season and it's clear that a lot of people knew what they were talking about. The Astros are now 68-34 w/ a +175 run differential, only bested in both categories by the Dodgers, a team that is getting a number of career years from different players. The Astros' run is even more remarkable when you consider they'd been w/o ace Dallas Keuchel the last month. Keuchel returned last night and the offense picked up up w/ a late rally, winning 6-5 here in Detroit after another meltdown by the Tigers' bullpen. The Astros' starting rotation also recently got another key component back, that being Colin McHugh, who will make just his second start of '17 today. I like the road team a lot in this one.

Shoulder problems kept McHugh sidelined the first four months of the season. He returned last Saturday at Baltimore and while McHugh did not factor into the decision, Houston won anyway 8-4. Certainly, McHugh could have been better as he allowed four runs in 4 2/3 IP, all of them coming on 2 HR's. But, after such a long layoff, you'd expect him to not be that sharp. For start #2, I'm projecting significant improvement. Keep in mind that this is a pitcher that has won 43 games the previous three seasons. The Astros' performance on the road this year has been nothing short of remarkable as they are now 38-13 and averaging 7.1 rpg (no other team averaging more than 5.6!). They are outscoring teams by 2.7 rpg away from home (that's incredible) and are 16-4 this year when priced between -125 and -175. The absence of Carlos Correa hasn't seemed to matter as Jose Altuve is putting up an "all-timer" month w/ a .506 batting average and 19-game hit streak! 

Meanwhile, I expect Detroit to be a seller at the trade deadline. Even in a weak AL Central, they are not a factor as the current four-game losing streak has them 11 games below .500. Their starter for Saturday is Mike Boyd, who recently became a father, but that's about the only positive development for him here in 2017. Yes, Boyd does have a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts. But that's in spite of a 5.74 ERA and 1.468 WHIP, numbers right in line w/ his YTD performance. Prior to the team winning each of those L3 starts, they'd lost six straight times w/ him on the mound. The key has been scoring 24 runs those L3 starts, an average which can't be maintained and will certainly dip after tonight. All three starts were also on the road, against division foes. At home, Boyd has a 1-4 team start record. In two career starts against the Astros, his ERA is 7.20. This sets up as a complete mismatch on Saturday. 8* Houston

10* NY Mets (4:05 ET): Seattle had a bit of an edge heading into Friday's opener w/ the Mets in that they had Thursday off while the Mets finishing up a series in San Diego. But they failed to take advantage, losing 7-5 as they allowed the Mets to rally for three runs late (8th inning). This weekend's lone Interleague set continues Saturday and this time, it's the Metropolitans w/ what I believe is a clear edge, in the form of Jacob deGrom, who is as hot as any pitcher in baseball right now. deGrom comes into today w/ an 8-0 TSR his L8 starts. He's gone at least eight innings five times during the stretch and another win today would pull him into a tie for most in the National League. As you might have suspected, he's been pretty dominant during this stretch, allowing 1 or 0 ER six times.

Last time out, deGrom went eight full innings and gave up just two runs on five hits. I said he was being undervalued there (was only -160 facing the Padres) and the same holds true here. That last performance dropped his ERA and WHIP over his last three starts to 1.59 and 0.882 respectively. While adjustments must be made for pitching in an American League park, expect deGrom to also benefit here from some additional offensive support. The Mets have been one of the highest scoring teams on the road this year (5.3 rpg), ranking third overall in that department (trailing only Houston & Washington). Now they get to benefit from the use of the DH. In three games in AL parks this season, the Mets have totaled 19 runs. Overall, they are now 6-3 in Interleague Play.

Meanwhile, the Mariners have been struggling offensively of late, hitting a collective .217 the L7 games. That's not good news when sending Yovani Gallardo to the hill. The veteran has really struggled here in 2017. He has a 5-10 TSR in 15 starts w/ a 6.25 ERA and 1.575 WHIP. If that's not bad enough, his ERA and WHIP at home are 7.29 and 1.619, resulting in a 2-6 team start record. He returned to the rotation last Sunday and gave up three solo home runs here in a 6-4 loss to the Yankees. With all three HR's allowed being solo shots, he's fortunate to have not given up even more runs. Even worse, of the 15 outs recorded by Gallardo, only three were via ground ball. Keep in mind that he'd allowed 5 ER in three of his four starts previous to that one. This is a big pitching mismatch that is not being priced properly. 10* NY Mets

10* Texas (8:05 ET): A classic revenge spot here as the Rangers were swept up in Camden Yards last week and now get the Orioles in Arlington. The change in venue should lead to a swift change in results considering Baltimore's lousy 18-32 road record (30-21 at home). Furthermore, we know the O's should feel quite fortunate to even be within "sniffing distance" (five games under) .500 right now considering their YTD run differential is a terrible -74, third worst in the American League. They come into this series having dropped B2B games (at Tampa Bay) and four of six overall since the sweep of the Rangers, who are of course having a much different season this year compared to last. The 2016 club, which won 95 games, only outscored opponents by EIGHT runs over the course of the entire season. This year's team is three games below .500, but w/ a somewhat comparable +1 run diff. Texas has won four of six since getting swept in Baltimore, but obviously has some additional atonement on its mind after being humiliated (lost 22-10) by Miami here at home Weds night.

The starting pitching matchup appears to be drastically in the home team's favor here. I say that knowing full well that Chris Tillman beat Andrew Cashner back on 7.17. That was actually one of Tillman's better starts all year as he held the Rangers to just one run on two hits over six innings (did have four walks). But overall, it has been a disastrous year for the Baltimore starter as he comes into tonight w/ a 7.01 ERA and 1.940 WHIP in 13 overall starts. Mirroring his team's performance, Tillman has been just dreadful on the road, where he is winless in four tries and has a 12.34 ERA and 2.742 WHIP. The decline of Tillman was somewhat easy to foretell as LY's success at the betting window (T3 in net units!) did not match his ERA & WHIP, both of which were only average at best. He has a career 5.08 ERA pitching here in Arlington. 

Meanwhile, Cashner is having a solid July for Texas even though it hasn't really translated into the win column. Pitching opposite Tillman on 7.17, he allowed only three runs on six hits in 6 1/3 IP. He followed that up w/ another quality effort, this time getting the win as he held Tampa Bay to three runs and four hits in 6 IP last Saturday. Overall, Cashner has a 2.75 ERA and 1.068 WHIP here in July. The Rangers clearly have a bad taste in their mouths after the way the previous series ended, but the good news is that the offense scored 10 runs in B2B games! They are 23-14 the L3 seasons after allowing 10+ runs the previous game and here at home they average a healthy 5.6 rpg, one of the highest averages in all of MLB. I expect the home team to roll Friday night. 10* Texas

8* Under Rays/Yankees (7:05 ET): The Yankees are the highest scoring home team in the big leagues, but there's value on the Under here considering both the number and the fact it's a divisional matchup. Last night's game finished 6-5 (in the Yanks' favor), but went 11 innings after the home team tied the game in the bottom of the ninth. The Yanks are big favorites on the ML tonight, meaning there's a good chance we won't even have to play that final half inning, which often times can be the difference between a game staying Under or going Over (like we saw last night!). Take the Under. 

Pitching for Tampa Bay tonight will be Austin Pruitt, who has made only one start in 2017 and it came all the way back in April. It lasted just three innings, but he gave up just one hit and zero runs. Pruitt is pitching here because Jake Odorizzi is on the DL w/ back issues. He made five starts at Triple-A Durham and posted a 3.38 ERA there. While pitching at Yankee Stadium can be difficult, the Rays staff performed admirably last night, until the late innings at least.

Masahiro Tanaka has been hit hard twice by the Rays this year and has allowed the second most home runs among AL starters. But I look for him to pitch well tonight. TB comes in batting only .216 its L7 games. They've also failed to top five runs in each of the last 10 games. Also consider that last season, Tanaka was 4-0 w/ a 2.88 ERA in five starts vs. Rays, who hit just .194 off him. Tanaka's 1.132 WHIP at home is a positive number. Visitors have not shared in the Yankees' offensive prowess here in the Bronx this season, averaging just 4.2 rpg. 8* Under Rays/Yankees

8* Run Line Cincinnati (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Reds +1.5. This will be the second series between these two teams (both of whom are going nowhere) in the last week. Miami took two of three last weekend at Great American Ballpark, though I cashed in on the Reds the one time they were victorious (Sunday). I'll again back them here as we have a situation where the same two starting pitchers are squaring off for a second straight time. Not from the Sunday game mind you, but from a 5-4 win by the Marlins on Saturday. That game saw both starters - Chris O'Grady for Miami and Robert Stephenson for Cincy - turn in less than stellar performance. But b/c O'Grady's side won, he comes in overvalued and it helps that the Marlins are off a stunning 22 run effort last night in Texas. I say the Reds do no worse than a one-run loss in this one.

Lost in Miami's shocking offensive peformance Weds night is the fact their own pitching staff has surrendered a total of 20 runs the L2 games. This makes them quite the shaky ML favorite, even against a bottom-feeder like Cincinnati. O'Grady lasted only 4 2/3 innings and gave up three runs last Saturday, so he actually didn't even factor into the decision as the game was tied when he exited. He also issued SIX walks. Another troubling sign is that O'Grady is going less deep into games w/ each passing start. He went 5 1/3 his first start, then 5 his second and then just 4 2/3 last time out. He has a 5.40 ERA and 1.600 WHIP overall and his inability to go deep into games means trouble when you consider the bullpen has both been overworked and ineffective recently. Opponents are batting .316 against Marlins' pitching the L7 games with three different games of 10 runs. Quite simply, yesterday's performance by the Marlins was an aberration, not a sign of things to come. 

The Reds, admittedly, have had a terrible start to the second half. They've won just twice in 13 tries. This week has seen them go 0-3 against a pair of American League teams as they dropped a make-up game in Cleveland on Monday, then a pair of games in New York. They've also had to deal w/ both Washington and Arizona since the All-Star Break, so it's not like the schedule has been easy. Miami represents a clear drop in class compared to other recent opponents and it should be noted the previous series saw each team finish w/ exactly 11 runs. The Marlins come into this series w/o some key performers, such as Justin Bour and J.T. Riddle, both of whom are on the DL, plus reliever David Phelps was just sent to Seattle. Stephenson is making just his second start of the year here for the Reds and I'm willing to bank that it goes better than the first one. 8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)

8* Toronto (12:37): Similar to St. Louis-Colorado yday, I smell as sweep here as Toronto has handled Oakland in this battle of last place teams. While it's by no means been a dominant performance by the Blue Jays, the A's have to be crushed after last night where they gave up B2B home runs in the bottom of the ninth to lose the game, 3-2. The A's also have the worst road record in the American League (16-34) and have dropped 11 of their last 12 here in Toronto going back several seasons. They've lost seven of their last nine overall as well coming into today's finale. While the Jays still actually have a slightly worse YTD run differential compared to the A's, in terms of "true talent," I don't think I'm alone in thinking they are the better team here. Marcus Stroman facing an anemic offense is the final nail in what should be a lopsided affair.

Though he has little to show for it in the win column, Stroman has pitched very well of late. Sure, there have been some control issues, but he has a 1.37 ERA in four starts this month and has allowed just 1 ER in his last 14 1/3 IP. Last time out is when he allowed that earned run, in what turned out to be a hard-luck loss (2-1) at Cleveland. Going back five starts, Stroman has allowed a total of just 4 ER and no homers. The lineup he'll face today has done next to nothing in this series. The Oakland bats have produced just five runs on 11 hits in the three games and twice been held to three hits or fewer. So this is really an ideal matchup for Toronto's top pitcher. For the year, the A's are averaging just 3.8 rpg on the road w/ a team batting average of .233. Not good.

Oakland isn't just losing consistently on the road, they're getting dominated. That's evident by the fact they've been outscored - on average - by 1.4 rpg, one of the worst marks in all of baseball. That certainly makes today's task tough for starter Sean Manaea, who has been slumping to begin with. Manaea gave up four runs and 10 hits - in only 5 2/3 innings - his last time out, a 6-5 loss to the Mets. He does have a win over the Blue Jays earlier this year, but that was at home. Behind Manaea is a bullpen that obviously has zero confidence after last night and already had a 5.49 ERA and 1.470 WHIP on the road anyway. 8* Toronto

10* St. Louis (8:15 ET): I smell a sweep here in St. Louis as the Cardinals are fighting their way back into contention. Really, there's no reason to believe that the Redbirds can't win a wide open NL Central as the L2 days have shown. They've beaten Colorado (a current Wild Card team) two straight times, holding them to only four runs in the process. Remember that St. Louis, despite a losing overall record (49-51) has a better YTD run differential than the Cubs (+27 to +26)! Colorado, as has been the case throughout the franchise's history, just can't score enough consistently on the road and now they have to face the Cards' best pitcher (Carlos Martinez) in tonight's finale. Time to break out the brooms at Busch Stadium.

After a dominant 8-2 win on Monday, it was a walkoff win last night for the home team, though they never actually trailed in the game. They had jumped out to a 2-0 lead after the first inning, but Colorado was able to tie the game w/ runs scored in both the seventh and eighth innings. No team in baseball has lost more games in which they have held a lead of two or more runs this season than St. Louis, but they were able to avoid adding another to the list as Harrison Bader (called up earlier in the day) scored the GW run. The Rockies have yet to hold a lead in this series and their offensive production dropping almost a full two runs per game on the road is starting to become an issue. They had half the number of hits St. Louis did last night. 

Martinez is deserving of far better than a 9-11 TSR for the Redbirds. Completely disregard the fact that a start earlier this season vs. the Rockies resulted in a 10-0 loss as he allowed only three runs in 7 IP. He was the beneficiary of a late-inning explosion his last time out, however, as a nine-run eighth inning by the Cards propelled them to an 11-4 road win over the Cubs, which I was on as Martinez was +125 on the ML. He has a 2.90 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in 10 home starts this year. I look for him to silence the slumping Rockies bats. Meanwhile, Colorado starter Jeff Hoffman has NOT pitched well of late, turning in an 8.44 ERA and 1.875 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, he gave up seven runs in just three innings. Hoffman was one of several early season surprises in this Rockies' rotation, but he has since given up 29 runs in his L33 IP. The Cards are a team to watch here in the second half. 10* St. Louis

8* Texas (8:10 ET): A number of big-name pitchers are rumored to be changing teams at the trade deadline and Yu Darvish's name can be counted among them. But while this may be a lost season for the Rangers, they may want to think twice about dealing away a starter of this caliber. Yes, he's gone 0-4 w/ a 4.26 ERA his past seven starts, but he did overcome allowing three HR's his last time out (all solo shots) as he struck out a season-high 12 batters. (Texas would go on to win the game, 4-3, at Tampa Bay). Darvish has 10+ K's 32 times in his career plus his control has generally been excellent of late w/ one walk or fewer issued in eight of the last 10 outings. Though below .500, the Rangers have outscored opponents this year (stark contrast to last season!) and they should roll today over Miami.

It was the offense that carried Texas yday in a 10-4 win. Among their 15 hits were four home runs and their 31 total bases marked a season-high. As I've discussed previously, predictable regression in one-run games has hurt the Rangers this year as they've gone from 36-11 in '16 (all-time best mark in MLB history!) to 10-15 in '17. But poor hitting w/ RISP has also hurt them. That wasn't the case Tuesday however, nor should it be today against Jose Urena, who has a 5.79 ERA and 1.50 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, Urena looked good, but that was against Cincinnati. That should also then tell you just how bad he was the previous two starts as he gave up eight runs in eight innings, including four home runs. Urena has only had to make one start in an AL park this season (meaning he has to face a DH and not the pitcher) and it went horribly as he allowed six runs in 4 IP to lowly Oakland. It was his least effective start to date.

Texas has generally had its way w/ the National League this season, going 10-3. They're 34-19 in IL play the L3 seasons, not too surprising considering how the American League - in general - tends to dominate. The last season that the NL produced a winning record in IL play was 2003. Miami is 21-37 its L58 games vs. AL opponents. It doesn't help that their lineup will be missing Justin Bour today. If this is the final start for Darvish in a Rangers uniform, expect him to go out a winner. 8* Texas

6* Arizona (3:40 ET): I was a bit shocked to see the Braves beat the D'backs yday, although maybe I shouldn't have been given the presence Mike Foltynewicz, who threw another six strong innings as Atlanta won for a NINTH consecutive time w/ him pitching. But Foltynewicz can't pitch every day and w/ Arizona owning one of the top home records in all of baseball (currently 35-18), I see them bouncing back this afternoon. Yday's starter, Taijuan Walker, held the Braves w/o a hit for the first three innings and the only run he allowed in the first five innings was unearned. Atlanta poured it on late, breaking open a game that was tied 2-2 entering the 7th. The D'backs still have one of the top run differentials in all of baseball however (+109), and they have the - clear - edge in starting pitching today. Only Houston and the Dodgers have outscored the opposition by a wider margin over the course of 2017 than have the D'backs, who average 5.7 rpg here at Chase Field. 

It makes little sense as to how Atlanta could be 4-1 head to head w/ Arizona this season. Remember though, they did not have to face either Zack Greinke or Robbie Ray in the previous series. They avoid Ray again here (lost to Greinke Monday), but I feel Pat Corbin is very likely to hold the Braves in check here. He pitched fairly well in the last series vs. Atlanta (on the road), allowing only two runs in 5 IP. He followed that up by allowing just 1 ER in 7 1/3 IP last time out, at Cincinnati. His numbers are much better at home and he's actually allowed 3 ER or fewer in EIGHT consecutive starts. His ERA over the previous seven is 2.81. As a home favorite of -175 to -250 on the ML, the D'backs are 7-1 this season and 13-4 the L3 seasons.

Atlanta will be sending out Aaron Blair, who is making his 2017 debut here. He was actually originially drafted by Arizona, but never made the big league club. He did pitch at this level LY for the Braves, but was hardly effective in going 2-7 w/ a 7.59 ERA. This is one of the toughest venues in the league to pitch as the D'backs are just so prolific here at Chase Field. The Braves have been a surprisingly effective road team this season, but winning two straight against a vastly superior foe (w/ a questionable starter) seems unlikely. 6* Arizona

8* Arizona (9:40 ET): In the teams' first series after the All-Star Break, the Braves swept a three-game series from the D'backs, doing so in somewhat of a convincing fashion (outscored them 19-9). However, as discussed in my analysis of yday's game, the Braves really benefited there from not having to face either of Arizona's top two pitchers - Zack Greinke or Robbie Ray. They faced Greinke last night and even north of -200 on the ML, I felt he was a tremendous value. Sure enough, he tossed eight strong innings and the D'backs rolled to victory 10-2. Tonight's starter for Arizona, Taijuan Walker, may not be Greinke, but he's being just as undervalued IMO as the other key to handicapping this series is the D'backs' prowess at home. Last night's win elevates them to 35-17 this season at home where they're outscoring the opposition by 1.7 rpg. At 5.7 rpg, they are the third highest scoring home team in all of MLB. Atlanta is simply outgunned here.

Walker did pitch in the last series w/ the Braves. While he obviously didn't win, he pitched well, giving up only two runs and five hits in 6 IP. While he pitched well, I thought it was a mistake leaving him in the game for that final frame. Not only did he kill a possible big inning for the offense by grounding into an inning-ending double play, but in the bottom half of the sixth, he allowed a home run. Nevertheless, I will credit Walker for giving up 3 ER or less in six of his last seven starts. The D'backs actually wound up in position to still win the game (led 3-2 going into the bottom of the eighth), but the bullpen blew it. Walker's numbers at home aren't great, but he's likely to get far more support here than he did on 7.14. He also hasn't pitched since, so he's well-rested coming off 10 days in between starts.

An obvious reason as to why the ML is not substantially higher here is that Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz has seen the team win each of his last EIGHT starts. The last four have come as underdogs of +187, +120, +155 and +160. That's quite a return on investment and doesn't even include a win as a +210 ML dog vs. Stephen Strasburg and Washington last month. But the buck stops here. Though he's allowed 3 ER or less in all but one of those eight starts, Foltynewicz has a 4.08 ERA and 1.586 WHIP his L3 starts, which are not good numbers (particularly the latter). He's been fortunate not to allow more runs as he's given up 22 hits and six walks in 17 2/3 IP. One of those L3 starts came against this D'backs lineup and he allowed three runs in 5 1/3 IP. Look for him to give up a lot more this time as Arizona scored 10 times last night and - as detailed above - is a far more prolific lineup here at Chase Field. 8* Arizona

10* Detroit (7:10 ET): The Tigers, specifically Justin Verlander, failed to exact revenge for a prior loss on Monday, but the 5-3 loss (in 12 innings) failed to dissuade me that they are the better overall team here. The same angle presents itself tonight and in the case of Michael Fulmer, I believe the second time will be the charm. Fulmer lost his last time out, in embarrassing fashion, 16-4 to these Royals. He'll once again be facing off against Danny Duffy, who - despite that win last Thursday - still has numbers that are mediocre, at best. Even though they've won six in a row, the Royals have been outscored this season and have a run differential (-19) that's almost identical to the Tigers (-21), who are eight games below .500. Good value on the home side tonight. 

I feel that the change in venue from last Thurs should do wonders for Fulmer's performance here. He said it himself in regards to his last start, in KC's Kauffman Stadium, "...last time out it was 37 pitches in the first inning and 100-degree heat. You get tired real quick, so my second and third innings I wasn't crisp. I think it just boils down to the fact I threw way too many pitches in that first inning." Certainly, Fulmer has pitched better at Comerica Park than on the road this season. His TSR at home is 7-3, due in large part to a 1.049 WHIP. Last time he worked here, he went eight innings and gave up only one run and two hits. That was a career-worst start his last time out and I expect a bounce back from a pitcher who is currently #2 in the American League in quality starts.

As for Duffy, he's been better since returning from the DL, especially in the control department (no walks L3 starts). However, lost in last week's lopsided win over the Tigers is the fact Duffy gave up a four-run fifth, meaningless for that game, but not in the grand scheme of things. Note that in his last road start, Duffy allowed five runs - and that came at pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium. He still has an ERA above 4.00 lifetime against the Tigers. I just think it speaks volumes that Detroit is favored on the money line in this series, a price I happen to agree with. Sure it helps that they're at home (where they average 5.3 rpg for the year), but also the Royals just also aren't as strong as recent results would seem to indicate. Keep in mind that half of their current win streak includes a sweep of the lowly White Sox. 10* Detroit

10* Pittsburgh (10:15 ET): This is a revenge series for the Bucs, who got swept (at home!) by the Giants back in early July. Actually, the road team has experienced a great deal of success in head to head matchups between these two clubs as the Pirates are a perfect 6-0 here in San Fran the previous two seasons. This will be their first visit of '17 and what they'll encounter is a Giants team that has fallen both fast and hard from previous years. No team has lost more at the betting window than has SF (-27.9 units) as they continue to be mispriced based on reputation and the expectation they'll "turn things around." But they couldn't even win a series against the lowly Padres here at home over the weekend, dropping three of four to them. I look for the Bucs to get some revenge tonight, led by Gerrit Cole.

Pittsburgh also had a somewhat disappointing weekend as they lost both Saturday and Sunday in Colorado. But they'd won six straight prior to that as they desperately try and remain relevant in the NL Central race. Despite being a game below .500, they're only three games off the pace in the division. Compare that to the Giants, who know they're done for the season as they trail the Dodgers by 30.5 games (!) in the West and are 19 games back of the Wild Card. Since sweeping the Pirates, they've lost 11 of 16. They have just ONE win by more than one run in July. Meanwhile, the Bucs have gone in the opposite direction, winning 12 of their last 17 games since the Giants series. Tonight marks just the fourth time all year that they've been priced as a road favorite of -125 or higher on the ML, which says a lot about their opponent. 

It is my view that tonight's starting pitching matchup is a massive mismatch in favor of the visitors. Cole comes in having gone 3-0 his L3 starts w/ a 2.37 ERA and 0.947 WHIP. He's allowed just five runs in 19 IP and has a 22-1 KW ratio. Six of his last seven starts have seen him allow 2 ER or fewer, the exception coming against the Giants. But, he's typically pitched well against this opponent, turning in a 3.21 ERA in five starts total. San Francisco has a weak lineup that is 28th in runs scored, 25th in team batting average, 29th in OBP, 30th in slugging and 30th in home runs. In order to be successful, Giants starter Matt Cain will need an amount of run support he's unlikely to get here. In 18 starts this year, Cain has a 5.42 ERA and 1.640 WHIP. The Pirates did not get to face him in the last series. Cain's strikeout numbers remain very low, which is never a good sign. A Giants team which has its most losses through 100 games (62) since moving to San Francisco (in 1958!) will see its nightmare season continue tonight. 10* Pittsburgh

8* NY Mets (10:10 ET): There are many huge mismatches on the Monday card, which is why my card is so unusually large (this is a good thing!) on a day like today. One such mismatch takes place here in San Diego where the host Padres actually come in having won three of four (against the last place Giants). But any kind of sustained success should not be expected from this ballclub, which still owns the worst overall run differential in MLB at -132. The Giants are -114, but no other NL team is below -80, which right there should tell you how bad this team can truly be. It's really tough imagining them mounting much of a challenge against the Mets, who will send the red hot Jacob deGrom out to the bump.

On paper, this sets up as perhaps deGrom's easiest start of 2017. San Diego ranks dead last in baseball in runs scored, team batting average and OBP. It's not as if deGrom needs a lot of help right now either. He's 7-0 his L7 starts w/ a 1.51 ERA and 0.820 WHIP and he's allowed 1 or 0 ER in six of those seven starts! In his last 28 1/3 innings of work, deGrom has allowed only 22 hits and has a 31-3 KW ratio. In four career starts against the Padres, he has a 1.80 ERA.

On the other hand, San Diego starter Clayton Richard comes into this Monday matchup hardly in fine form. His last start saw him allow 11 runs and 14 hits in just 3 2/3 IP! While that came at Coors Field, it should be noted that Richard had allowed 11 hits in 5 2/3 IP his previous start and that took place here at home. To put those numbers in their proper perspective, Richard has allowed more hiits in his last 9 1/3 IP (25) than deGrom has in his last 28 1/3 (22)! WOW! Richard has allowed 4 ER or more in four of his last five starts and if there's one positive aspect (besides deGrom) this Mets team brings to the table this year, it's that they average 5.3 runs per game on the road. That's the third most in all of baseball! 8* NY Mets

8* Arizona (9:40 ET): I, for one, was shocked that the price on Zack Greinke and Arizona isn't far higher here. After all, they're at home where they own a 34-17 record and are outscoring visitors by 1.7 runs per game. Only two teams, one of them Colorado, are averaging more runs per game at home than are the D'backs. Perhaps this low price (by Greinke standards) has something to do w/ the fact Atlanta was able to split four games w/ the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine over the weekend (impressive when you think about it). Or maybe it has something to do w/ the Braves sweeping the D'backs in the first series after the All-Star Break. But that series took place down in Atlanta and not only did Grienke not pitch, neither did Robbie Ray. I suspect Arizona will be exacting some revenge to start the week. 

Though they've fallen behind the Dodgers by 11.5 games in the NL West, Arizona still holds one of MLB's best run differentials at +106. Only three teams are better and those are Houston, the Dodgers and Washington. They did just drop two of three to the Nats here at home over the weekend, but did beat Max Scherzer on Friday. This is an impressive home team, especially when Greinke is on the hill as they've gone 10-1 in his 11 Chase Field starts this season. Overall, Greinke is having another fantastic year w/ a 2.97 ERA and 1.047 WHIP. Coming off a long rest (12 days!), he wasn't as sharp as per usual vs. Cincinnati last Wednesday, but that was also on the road. At home, he has a 0.873 WHIP and has allowed just three runs and 10 hits his L19 IP here. Again, I actually consider this price range to be a bit of a bargain considering Arizona is 6-1 this year as a ML home fave of -175 to -250 and 12-4 in that range the L3 seasons. 

The Braves counter Greinke w/ veteran knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, who has actually gone at least six innings in six consecutive starts. But after allowing 1 ER or fewer in each of the first five, Dickey was tagged for four in an 8-2 loss to the Cubs on Wednesday. His 5.55 ERA and 1.511 WHIP on the road (eight starts) are cause for concern, especially in this hitter-friendly ballpark. While Atlanta did split w/ the Dodgers over the weekend, they did lose the L2 games. After a tough series such as that one (extra inning loss yday), it's tough to envision them winning against Greinke tonight. 8* Arizona

10* Toronto (7:30 ET): What a terrible spot this is for Ottawa, who is playing for the second time in less than a week. Technically, this is still considered a Week 5 matchup, but the reality is that Toronto essentially has had a bye (last played on 7.13) while Ottawa is playing its sixth game of the season and doing so w/ only four days to prepare. Considering the Argos are at home, this price looks especially cheap. Already this season, they've gone to Ottawa and upset the Redblacks, 26-25 as 4.5-pt dogs. That's actually the lone game of the year that the defending Grey Cup Champs haven't covered, but I anticipate a far more lopsided result this time around. I took the points last time around w/ the Argos and this time will lay 'em!

Ottawa did win last Wednesday, beating Montreal 24-19 in what was their first win of the campaign. But it was greatly aided by the Als turning the ball over four times, thereby nullifying a 493-420 edge they had in total yards. Also, take note that the Als were driving w/ a chance to win before being stopped on downs (inside the Redblacks' 20-yd line) w/ less than three minutes remaining. I look for Toronto QB Ricky Ray to take advantage of what should be a tired Redblacks defense here as Ray is the lone CFL pivot to throw for 300+ yards in every game this season. He's closing in on Doug Flutie's career CFL record. 

I give Toronto a big edge on special teams in this matchup as return man Martese Jackson recorded 339 yards in the previous game. While the Argos still lost to Winnipeg, 33-25, they did so despite having an edge in total yardage. Turnovers were again the story there as a -2 ratio doomed them. This is Toronto's first home game since 6.30, so you have to figure they'll be highly motivated to go out and perform well in front of the fanbase. But again, I have to go back to handicapping the situation here and the fact the Argos have had so much more time to prepare cannot be understated. If you recall my analysis from the first matchup of the year between these teams, I stated that the Redblacks would regress severely in 2017 and that they have (and will continue to do). 10* Toronto

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): Might this past weekend have been a significant turning point in the defending AL Champs' season? Clearly the best team in their division, the Indians have struggled to pull away from the pack due in no small part to a shockingly subpar record at home. But after sweeping the Blue Jays (in impressive fashion) Friday-Sunday, their record is at least now .500 here at Progressive Field. As I just stated, the Tribe are clearly the best that the AL Central has to offer, an assertion backed up by the run differential column where they are +81 for the year and no other division rival is "in the black" (positive). Another area where the Indians have performed much more poorly than expected is in Interleague games where they're just 4-13 for the year. They'll have a shot at rectifying that a bit tonight w/ a make-up game, hosting lowly Cincinnati. 

Though I played the Reds on Sunday (successfully, I might add), they clearly are overmatched in this instance. Yesterday's 6-3 win over Miami certainly cannot erase what was a terrible homestand overall, one that saw the team go 2-8 while getting outscored 72-31. Their pitching staff allowed 23 home runs in the 10 games, a number which is almost mind-numbing. I took them yday, in part, because I thought they had the edge in starting pitching (Miami went w/ the horrid Tom Koehler). That's not the case here as the Reds will hand the baseball to Tim Adelman, who over his L3 starts has produced a 6.46 ERA and 1.566 WHIP. Adelman has allowed at least one HR in TEN consecutive outings. By the way, if the Reds thought the homestand was bad, things may only get worse as they're just 16-28 on the road this year and getting outscored by 1.2 rpg. 

Cleveland goes w/ Josh Tomlin in this spot. He beat a National League opponent in his most recent outing, San Francisco, by allowing just three runs and six hits. This will actually be his third straight start facing an opponent from the Senior Circuit. Back on 7.6, in this ballpark, he also turned in a quality start at San Diego's expense. Facing the Padres, Giants and Reds (NL's 3 worst?) is a pretty favorable stretch for a starting pitcher and note Cincy comes into this series averaging fewer than 3.0 rpg their L7 contests. Tomlin has great control as well, leading the AL w/ only 1.0 BB per nine innings. The Cleveland offense really woke up over the weekend, outscoring Toronto 23-5 in three games. I expect that to carry over to tonight. 8* Cleveland

8* Detroit (7:10): The Royals got to thoroughly enjoy a weekend visit from the White Sox, whom they swept rather convincingly. I was on them in one of the wins (Saturday), but now they have to hit the road for the first time since the All-Star Break. Their current five-game win streak began with a pair of wins over Detroit at home and now the Tigers - specifically Justin Verlander - get a shot at revenge in their park Monday. The Tigers just completed a winning road trip (went 4-3) w/ a win Sunday (9-6 at Minnesota) and Verlander will get to face the same pitcher he lost to (Jason Hammel) in a hard-luck decision last Wednesday. I feel that the scenario, with the change in venue and "immediate revenge" factor w/ the starting pitchers, is tailor-made for the Tigers to exact some payback on KC here.

That four-game series at Kauffman Stadium last week actually saw the Tigers take the first two games, both in commanding fashion. They won 10-2 and 9-3 before Verlander & Hammel took the mound for the rubber match and the latter came out on top 4-3. Verlander certainly pitched well enough to win, allowing just two runs in 7 IP w/ an 8-1 KW ratio. Save for one bad start against Cleveland on 7.2, Verlander has pitched well over the last two months. He's allowed 3 ER or fewer in 9 of his past 10 starts. Also, his ERA is nearly two full points lower at home than it is on the road. His career win total against the Royals (23) is his most against any opponent and he has a 3.18 ERA in 44 starts against them. So it's rare to see him lose to KC, let alone twice in the same week!

Conversely, it's pretty rare to see Hammel pitch so well against Detroit as he owns a 6.98 ERA in 11 career outings against them. This is a pitcher who began the year 1-6 w/ a 6.18 ERA. He's turned it around somewhat over the L2 months, but a 5.08 ERA and 1.752 WHIP on the road are still cause for concern. Despite being three games over .500, the Royals have still been outscored over the course of this season (-21 run differential). They are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Meanwhile, despite being seven games below .500, the Tigers actually have a better YTD run diff than the Royals (-19)! Verlander and company get revenge tonight. 8* Detroit

8* Run Line St. Louis (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Cardinals +1.5. After taking Friday's opener (a day game), the Cards lost yday here in the Windy City, 3-2. Though held to only three hits - total - for the entire game, the visitors still were in position to win before blowing a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the eighth. The loss marked the 20th time this year that the Cards lost a game in which they held a two-run lead, most in all of MLB. All five runs in yday's game were actually scored in the 8th. Despite the disappointing result Saturday and the lack of hitting, the Cards would have still been a RL winner. That's how I'll play them tonight as they do no worse than a one-run loss here. 

In my analysis for Friday's matchup, I talked about how there really is little difference between these teams' overall performances in 2017. Sure, the Cubs have a 3.5 game edge in the NL Central standings, but despite being under .500, not only have the Cards outscored their opponents this year, they also have a slightly better YTD run differential (+22 vs. +21) compared to their rivals. I have more faith in their pitching than the Cubs and that goes for tonight where Michael Wacha will toe the rubber. Wacha comes in rocking fine form as he 3-0 w/ a 0.87 ERA and 0.822 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, he tossed a complete game shutout, allowing just three hits w/ an 8-1 KW ratio against the Mets. In his last 26 2/3 IP, Wacha has allowed just THREE runs total. Overall, the team has won the last five times he's taken the mound. I feel comfortable putting my money on Wacha here. He hasn't lost a decision since May 30th.

Cubs starter Jose Quintana will be making his Wrigley debut tonight, so the spotlight will be on him. Like Wacha, Quintana has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts, which goes back to his tenure w/ the cross-town White Sox. Obviously, he's pitched at Wrigley before, but not as a member of the home team. As devastating as he looked in his Cubs debut last Sunday at Baltimore (seven scoreless innnings, struck out 12), he's facing a better - and less familiar - opponent here. The Cubs have been big money losers this season (-15.5 units) and have actually been outscored here at Wrigley Field.  8* Run Line St. Louis (+1.5)

10* Under A's/Mets (1:10 ET): Playing these teams Under burned me yday, but the philosophy behind the play has not changed and thus I'm back for more. Furthermore, today we're getting a better number as 9 is a key number in betting MLB totals and so that additional half run could prove vital. Also, with the Mets favored, there's a decent chance we won't have to play the bottom of the ninth today, which is always helpful when playing an Under as you don't need to sit through those final three outs. Last night's game saw Oakland jump out to a 4-0 lead after the top of the first, which really put us behind the proverbial 8-ball. I see no such outburts occurring today (A's scored only one run the rest of the way) and thus Under is the play.

The Mets are the top Over team in baseball. But they're run production actually slips dramatically at Citi Field compared to the road. At home, they average 4.4 rpg, nearly a full run fewer than what they average on the road. At the risk of being redundant, they're hosting an AL team here, which is notable because the A's lose the DH and have to send their pitchers (unaccustomed to batting) up to the plate. Even w/ the benefit of the DH, Oakland is just 22nd in runs scored in all of MLB, not to mention 28th in team batting average and 24th in OBP. Mets' starter Rafael Montero should be able to handle their lineup today as even in defeat, he looked good his last time out, allowing just 2 ER in a 5-0 loss to the Cardinals. The Mets' bullpen threw four scoreless innings last night, a good sign as well.

The A's bullpen hasn't been nearly as stout in this series, but that was to be expected after the trade w/ Washington. Still, I'm not too worried about it. Starter Daniel Gossett is off perhaps his best start of the year as he went seven innings and allowed just three runs. Coming into this series, A's pitching had allowed four runs or less in eight consecutive games. So, it's not that side of the ledger I'd be concerned with. Rather, the offense scoring only 3.9 rpg on the road is a bigger concern, yet one that works to our advantage here. The Mets have struggled offensively in day games as well, averaging just 3.8 rpg for the year. 10* Under A's/Mets

10* Cincinnati (1:10 ET): This finale, of a series that has drawn little interest, offers some tremendous value on the home team who is hoping to avoid getting swept. Overall, it's been eight losses in the last nine games for the Reds, who have fallen deep into the basement in the NL Central. Of course, this was to be expected. Coming into 2017, they were projected as perhaps the worst team in baseball w/ the possible exception of San Diego. Now that we've established "what this team is," allow me to explain why there's value on them today. It has more to do w/ fading Miami really. The Marlins have only ONE 3-game win streak over the last month and that came right before the Break when they swept the Giants. I do not envision the same thing taking place here, not w/ the horrible Tom Koehler on the mound. 

Koehler comes in w/ a 7.20 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 11 starts this year. Not good. The team did win his last time out, 6-5 over the Phillies, but did so in extra innings after Koehler put them in an early four-run hole. Before that, the Marlins had lost each of his previous five starts. He was actually sent down to the minors at point and when he returned, produced a 10.80 ERA in his first four starts. Miami had not been playing well itself since returning from the Break, dropping five of six and those were all home games. Another big issue w/ Koehler is that he rarely goes deep into games. He's never made it past six innings and only twice in those 11 starts has he gotten that far. He's also never pitched in this ballpark before. 

Yes, Cincinnati is experiencing a truly awful homestand as they are not only 1-8, but have been outscored 69-25. They've allowed 22 HR's, which is a big problem, but keep in mind that they also faced both Washington and Arizona, two of the National League's top offensive teams. Sal Romano (not to be confused w/ the Mad Men character of the same name!) is charged w/ ending this homestand on some sort of positive note and despite his numbers being somewhat similar to Koehler's, I feel he has the more potential of the two starters here. This is only his fourth career big-league start and in addition to having to face Arizona his last time out, he also had to pitch at Coors Field. This will - easily - be his most favorable matchup to date as Miami is 21st in runs scored. The thing to keep in mind about this homestand is that the Reds previously had a winning record here! 10* Cincinnati

10* Run Line Baltimore (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Orioles +1.5. I was aggressive in playing the O's on the money line last night (were +130) and very quickly that looked like a bad bet as they quickly fell down 5-0 after just two innings. Truthfully, they were never really "in it," but a five-run ninth at least satisfied run line bettors as the final score was 8-7. Given that result, I'll be a little more conservative today and grab the added insurance at what appears to be a great price. Admittedly, the starting pitching situation - from the Baltimore perspective - isn't a ton more desirable today compared to yesterday. But I feel Houston's starter won't be nearly as strong and thus I'm confident in saying the home team does no worse than a one-run loss here. Remember that the O's are still 29-20 at Camden Yards this year.

Tonight will mark the season debut for Astros starter Colin McHugh. Elbow issues are what has kept him out. After a breakthrough 2015, McHugh regressed some LY, finishing just 13-10 w/ a 4.34 ERA. He's never pitched particularly well against Baltimore w/ a 6.08 ERA in five career starts. I sense he may struggle some in his first start of the year. The Orioles have a fairly potent lineup, one which has averaged 6.3 runs per game over the last week and 4.8 rpg for the year at home. They've now scored seven or more runs in four consecutive contests. Let us not forget about the absences the Astros are dealing w/ right now. Carlos Correa is out as is relief man Will Harris. We saw the impact Harris' absence had on the team last night. Correa is obviously irreplaceable. 

Before losing last night, the Orioles had won four in a row as they'd swept the Rangers, here at home. Chris Tillman, like his counterpart McHugh, missed substantial time this year. He was out for the first month, but won his first start back (White Sox), tossing five scoreless innings on 5.3. He has not won since, a span of 11 starts, though the TSR is 4-7. Admittedly, he has not pitched well and that's reflected in the numbers. But he did look good his last time out, allowing just one run and two hits in 6 IP vs. Texas. This year's results are in stark contrast to 2016 where Tillman finished as one of the big money-earners in all of MLB (3rd in net units!). Again, I believe the O's can win here and they'll do no worse than a one run loss. 10* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5)

8* Kansas City (7:15 ET): Losers of seven straight, the White Sox are in a terrible way right now and figure to continue sinking further and further in the basement of the AL Central. The team's somewhat surprising start earlier this year was unsustainable as they were getting far better pitching than expected in the wake of sending Chris Sale to Boston. (They've since dealt Jose Quintana to the Cubs). Now they're giving up an average of over 5.0 rpg and that number should continue to rise w/ embattled starter Mike Pelfrey on the bump this evening. Last night's loss was of the crushing variety as the Sox blew a 5-1 lead and lost in extra innings. The Royals, who were in anearly season hole, have dug themselves out somewhat and won three in a row. They should continue progressing towards a possible sweep tonight.

It looks like a pretty substantial pitching mismatch here w/ Jason Vargas opposing Pelfrey. Vargas has struggled in his two July starts thus far, but that being said, it's been a strong overall year for the southpaw. He comes in w/ a 12-4 record in 18 starts (13-5 TSR), 3.05 ERA and 1.220 WHIP. Predictably, he's been stronger here at Kauffman Stadium. Let's not forget that he was an All-Star and came into July w/ a 2.22 ERA. He's off his shortest outing of the year, which is never fun, but often times leads to a bounce back the next time out. (We saw this w/ Trevor Bauer of Cleveland last night). Earlier this year, Vargas threw six solid innings against the White Sox here at home, giving up just one run on five hits. 

Meanwhile, at no juncture of the season could one reasonably conclude Pelfrey was having an effective year. His main issue is that he rarely goes deep into games. He has yet to make it past the six inning mark in any start this year and only twice has he gone longer than 5 1/3 IP. That puts a huge burden on a White Sox bullpen that simply isn't very good to begin with and let's not forget they also had a heavy workload last night. During this seven-game losing streak of theirs, Chicago is being outscored by 3.4 rpg. They've been shut out twice and held to three runs or fewer five times. 8* Kansas City

10* Under A's/Mets (7:10 ET): This Interleague matchup is taking place in a NL park, therefore my natural lean is towards the Under (AL team loses DH). Now, last night's series opener between the A's and Mets did go Over the total - as there was a late surge of runs scored including a 3-run inside the park home run that was fairly preposterous (error assisted). That's something that shouldn't happen again. Nor are the A's likely to pound out 14 hits for a second consecutive day. This is a lineup that's already 29th in baseball in team batting average (.236) and that's w/ DH, not the pitcher, coming up to bat. Yes, the Mets are the top Over team in baseball, but their scoring actually decreases dramatically here at Citi Field, down to 4.4 runs per game (5.3 rpg away).

Pitching here for Oakland will be Sean Manaea, who arguably has been their most consistent starter this year. He's 3 for 3 in quality starts here in July, turning in a 2.95 ERA and 1.172 WHIP. Last time out, he allowed just two runs and five hits in seven innings. He's now allowed 3 ER or less in five consecutive starts as well as 10 of his last 11! His ERA during that stretch is 2.92 and he's gone at least seven innings at least six times. Manaea has gotten to face only one NL lineup this year - Atlanta - and that was at home. Still, him allowing just two runs in 7 1/3 IP there is a good sign. He's allowed just 1 HR in his last five starts overall.

The Mets' Zach Wheeler seems to be headed in the opposite direction as Manaea, but this figures to be one of his easier starts this year. The Over cashed in 10 of his first 14 starts, but the last two (including a quality outing at St. Louis) have been different stories. Last time out, he did give up four runs to the Cardinals here at home as the Mets lost 6-3 (total pushed on 9.0). But note that he didn't allow a single run for five innings and he and the Mets wound up being doomed by one big inning. Despite their rightful rep as an Over team, the Mets lineup is only 12th in runs scored, 20th in OBP and 21st in team batting average. I look for this matchup to be lower-scoring than anticipated. 10* Under A's/Mets

8* San Francisco (10:15 ET): I have to admit; San Diego stunned me last night when they beat Madison Bumgarner (now 0-6 TSR in '17!) for the second time in less than a week. But for the second consecutive day, we also have a pitching matchup where one starter has "immediate" revenge for a loss in the prior start. Last Sunday, the Padres (w/ Trevor Cahill starting) beat Jeff Samardzija and the Giants, 7-1, in what was their last win prior to yday. Cahill and Samardzija face off again Friday and I believe it will be the latter emerging victorious this time. Not only because of the revenge angle (hard to beat same opposing starter twice in a row!), but also due to the fact that the Padres are just not good. Their MLB worst run differential (-137) includes them being outcored - on average - by 1.9 rpg on the road.

Samardzija is deserving of far better than a 4-11 record in his 19 starts this season (7-12 TSR). Sure, he did not pitch well Sunday at Petco Park. But, at least in the control department, he's had an outstanding year. Since May 1st, he's issued only FOUR walks against 100 strikeouts. That's an otherworldy ratio that should be leading to far better results. But it's just been "that kind of year" for the former Notre Dame wideout and the team as a whole. But, Sunday aside, Samardzija has pitched well in the past vs. SD, turning in a 3.68 ERA against them w/ a 7-3 record. Also, he ranks sixth in the National League in both innings pitched and strikeouts while ranking ninth in WHIP. He's gone at least six innings in 16 of his 19 starts. It's important to note that he's not lost three decisions in a row since opening the year 0-4. 

San Diego, in my opinion, is the worst team in baseball. They may have a better record than the Giants, but they have an inferior run differential and that is usually a far better predictor of future results. Offensively, this has been another inept season for them as they rank dead last in runs scored, team batting average and OBP. Hats off to Trevor Cahill for the way he pitched against the Giants on Sunday, but his home vs. road splits have been quite dramatic to say the least. While he's 4-0 at Petco Park this year w/ a 0.72 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, when taking his act on the road, the numbers are grim (5.01 ERA and 1.515 WHIP) and he's yet to win in six tries (0-3). This is a far better price than yday against what remains a terrible road team. 8* San Francisco

10* British Columbia (10:00 ET): Prior to the season commencing, the Leos were getting plenty of "Grey Cup love." We're starting to see why. After dropping the season opener in disappointing fashion (30-27 to Edmonton), they've won three in a row, all on the road. Now they return home to face a Winnipeg team that's off to a somewhat surprising 2-1 start. Normally, I might be unwilling to "touch" a game like this, but b/c of the chance B.C. may be w/o its starting QB, we are able to get an incredible value on them here. In case you are unaware, backup Travis Lulay came in last week and threw for 436 yards in the 41-26 win at Hamilton. That set the record for most yards passing by a QB that did not start the game in CFL history! Lay the points here.

Moving forward, B.C. will obviously want Jonathon Jennings back at the pivot position. But last week showed there isn't any kind of significant drop off w/ Lulay in there. He completed over 80% of his passes w/ three TD's in the win. Winnipeg is hardly any kind of defensive stalwart as in their lone road game to date, they gave up 40 points and that was against Saskatchewan. Lulay is no newcomer to this league either; he's won 40 games in his CFL career and was voted Most Outstanding Player back in 2011. I have to say that I was a bit shocked to find that the Bombers have covered the L5 meetings between these Western Division rivals. They'd even won four in a row - straight up - before a one-point win by the Leos last November. But the tides have turned and now B.C. is the better team - by far. Quite simply, it's time for some payback. 

While B.C. soundly beat Hamilton last week, even overcoming four turnovers, Winnipeg was a little fortunate to beat Toronto as they were actually outgained in the contest (354-336). Meanwhile, B.C. outgained Hamilton 507-424. The Bombers clearly benefited last week from a +2 turnover margin. Don't look for that to happen again Friday as the Leos had only three TO's in the first three games before more than doubling that number last week. Also, despite giving up over 400 yds LW, the Leos defense has proven itself to be stout. They'd allowed just 31 pts total the previous two games. 10* British Columbia

10* Baltimore (7:05 ET): The Orioles surprised me yday by beating Cole Hamels, thereby finishing off a four-game sweep of the Rangers. Despite a run differential (-71) that does not match the record (46-49), the O's clearly are a better team here at Camden Yards where they're now 29-19 for the year. That's actually a better win percentage than the team they'll host this weekend, that being Houston, who has the best overall record in the American League. Yes, the Astros have been unreal on the road and are coming off an off day. But they also are now w/o Carlos Correa for six weeks, a very significant loss considering they are already w/o their best starter (Dallas Keuchel) and best reliever (Will Harris). They've got a big enough lead in the AL West where the injuries won't cost them, but maintaining the current .663 win percentage should prove difficult. 

These teams have met only one time all year and that was in Houston. Given how badly Baltimore struggles on the road, you probably shouldn't be shocked to learn that they were swept in that three-game series. But, at the time, the Astros were in the midst of playing their best baseball of the season as they'd go on to win 11 straight. Since that 11-game win streak ended, they're actually "only" 21-16. They just dropped two of three to Seattle, at home, and have not won on consecutive days since the All-Star Break. I highly doubt that starter Michael Fiers will be able to match his previous outing, where he struck out 11 in seven innings against Minnesota as he has a 4.79 ERA and 1.447 WHIP on the road (last start was at home). He did not pitch in the previous series w/ Baltimore, who instead had to face both Keuchel and Lance McCullers, Jr. 

Ubaldo Jimenez, admittedly, has not pitched well of late for Baltimore. The former Cy Young winner got rocked by the Cubs last week, giving up six runs and 11 hits in 3 2/3 IP. It was his third straight bad outing, but the offense also didn't support him at all (shutout). Jimenez has pitched well in the past vs. Houston, turning in a 2.87 ERA in 13 career appearances. I believe that this is a great price on an Orioles' team that has won four straight and is much better at home. The Correa injury should take its toll on the vaunted Astros. 10* Baltimore

9* St. Louis (2:20 ET): Despite the perception, the difference between the Cubs and Cards is quite minimal, if not completely non-existent. Granted, this weekend series takes place in Wrigley and the home team has won six in a row overall. Plus, they swept St. Louis in their previous visit to the "Friendly Confines" last month. But all of those factors have created a TON of value on the road dog here. The two offenses have virtually been identical this year w/ the Redbirds actually placing 12 spots higher in team batting average compared to their division rival. Then there's the pitching side of the ledger, where - to me - the Cards have a pretty commanding edge. That includes Friday afternoon where Carlos Martinez faces Jake Arrieta. The former has better numbers despite an inferior won-loss record. I'll gladly back St. Louis at "plus money" here.

The narrative entering this series will be "the Cubs are back" following a 6-0 road trip that saw them sweep Baltimore and Atlanta. But was that performance really all that impressive? Sure, the Orioles turned around and swept Texas in their next series, but their -71 run differential remains one of the worst in the American League. Atlanta could be the weakest second place team in recent memory. The Cubs have essentially lost money in all settings here in 2017 as they're clearly overvalued after last year's World Series Championship. Only four teams (Toronto, Philly, Cleveland, SF) have been less profitable and day games have been particularly costly to Cubs backers as they're down 12.1 units! 

These teams are separated by 3.5 games yet the respective YTD run differentials are quite similar. Prior to losing the previous two days, St. Louis had taken the first two games against the Mets. Let's also not be fooled by the recent showings of the two starting pitchers today. Jake Arrieta might have a 1.86 ERA and 0.931 WHIP his L3 starts, but for the year he has a 4.17 ERA and 1.287 WHIP. Only 9 of his 19 starts have been quality. Yes, he's had the Cards' number here at Wrigley, but his overall skill set seems to have regressed. Meanwhile, Carlos Martinez may have hit a bit of a rough patch for the Redbirds (0-5 TSR L5 starts), but for the year he still sports a 3.36 ERA and 1.143 WHIP, better numbers than Arrieta. He also has a 2-0 TSR vs. the Cubs this season, having allowed just three runs on 11 hits in 14 innings of work. His last time out, Martinez went seven innings and allowed just two runs on five hits against Pittsburgh. Here, there's a good chance he might not have to face Kris Bryant, which would obviously make his job a lot easier. 9* St. Louis

6* San Francisco (10:15 ET): Don't look now, but the Giants have won back to back games (first time since a six-game win streak was snapped on 7.2). Both times saw them rally at Cleveland's expense, first winning a 10-inning affair on Tuesday, then scoring three times in the bottom of the eighth to win 5-4 last night. Meanwhile, their weekend visitors just got swept in embarrassing fashion at Colorado. I played against the Padres yesterday and they were humbled, 18-4, dropping their already MLB-worst run differential to an unsightly -140. That's 34 runs worse than the Giants, who have the 2nd worst run differential in all of baseball. But the key to this play is not just how bad San Diego is, but also San Francisco, specifically starter Madison Bumgarner having revenge. Look for the G-Men to win again and send the slumping Padres to another defeat.

Bumgarner being winless is emblematic of this lost season for the Giants. Of course, that record comes with a rather "giant" (pun intended!) caveat, that being an injury that kept him out for almost three months. One could make the case that when "Mad-Bum" fell off the dirtbike in April, the Giants' season went with him. It has been a stunning fall from grace for a club that has won three World Series since 2010, but as stated above, they at least come into this series w/ some positive momentum (hate that word!). Saturday saw Bumgarner make his return against these Padres and while he lost (TSR now 0-5 in '17), there were signs of positive things to come, such as him striking out the side in the first inning. Unfortunately, he gave up two homers and that ended up being the difference in a 5-3 defeat.

Bumgarner will face the same pitcher he squared off against Saturday, that being Jhoulys Chacin. As we know, it's exceedingly rare to have the same pitchers face off in consecutive starts and one to win both times. Chacin has actually pitched well for the Padres of late, but he's generally been horrible on the road this year w/ an 8.16 ERA and 1.814 WHIP. The fact he has a 4-5 TSR in his nine road starts seems quite fortunate. Those concerned w/ this price range ought not to be. Yes, this will only be the second time all year that the Giants find themselves favored in the -175 to -250 price range. But, at home, they are 24-7 in that range the L3 seasons. San Diego, on the other hand, is 13-43 the L3 seasons as a ML road dog of +175 to +250. As I said when I played against them each of the L2 days, the Padres have been a terrible road team overall this year, now being outscored by an average of 1.7 rpg. 6* San Francisco

10* Texas (7:10 ET): Whenever I've played either on OR against the Rangers this season, I make it a point to talk about how this has been one of the hardest teams to evaluate - in all of baseball - the last two years. The 2016 club that won 95 games (most in the American League) was nowhere near as good as its record as they only outscored their opponents by a measly eight runs over the course of the year and were greatly aided by a historical 36-11 record in one-run games! This year, somewhat predictably, they've been just the opposite. Despite entering today at just 45-49, one could make a pretty clear-cut argument that they're much better than that record considering they've outscored their opponents by 10 runs (more than last year!). The big difference between this season and last is they're now 7-15 in one-run games, the WORST such record in baseball!

After winning their first two games after the All-Star Break, the Rangers have now dropped four straight, the last three coming here in Baltimore. Ironically, the Orioles are a team that has to be considered far WORSE than its 45-49 record (same as Rangers!) as they've been outscored by 73 runs this season. Coming into this series, they actually owned the worst run diff in the A.L. But with Cole Hamels on the mound Thursday, I see the Rangers avoiding the sweep. It was a shaky first start back for Hamels on 6.26 vs. Cleveland, but since then he's been "lights out" w/ a 0.82 ERA and 0.500 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, he tossed 7 2/3 scoreless innings of four-hit ball. He comes into today having not allowed a run in 21 consecutive innings, the longest such active streak in MLB. 

In terms of the starting pitching matchup here, it looks like a no contest as Baltimore will send the struggling Wade Miley to the bump. His last three starts have resulted in an 11.24 ERA and 2.748 WHIP. Twice in that stretch he's been tagged for seven runs, including his last time out, when I played against him vs. the Cubs. He's not gone a full six innings since June 1st, a span of eight starts. His ERA over those eight starts is a heinous 10.19. For the season, he has a WHIP of 1.79, one of the worst among all qualified AL starters. Texas has given him trouble throughout his career as in seven starts against them, his ERA is 5.75. The Rangers are the better team here, so what's happened in the series so far seems like an aberration to me. I look for their offense to wake up against Miley tonight. 10* Texas

10* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The Mets have dropped the first two games of this four-game set, 6-3 and 5-0, but fortunately they have the definition of a "stopper" on the hill tonight, that being Jacob deGrom. The Mets are 6-0 in deGroms' last six starts w/ the last three seeing him turn in a 2.45 ERA and fantastic 0.773 WHIP. Now it's been the Cardinals' staff routinely turning in sharp efforts of late, holding the competition to just 1.9 runs and a .217 batting average the L7 games. Yesterday was their third shutout in the last six games alone. But the problem is that off the previous two shutouts, they've lost the next time out, dropping them to 2-6 this season off a shutout win. Make it 2-7 after this game as I don't like their starter Leake, who has a 1.80 WHIP his L3 starts.

It's pretty interesting to see the two starters w/ comparable ERA's over their last three starts (2.45 for deGrom, 3.24 for Leake). But deGrom's WHIP is over a full point lower, so what's going on? Not surprisingly, control issues have hurt Leake, his last start in particular. He issued five walks in a 5-2 loss at Pittsburgh Friday. Meanwhile, deGrom has issued just five walks total in his L5 starts! His KW ratio is 28-2 his L3 starts alone. He did allow FOUR home runs when he faced the Cards right before the All-Star Break, atypical to say the least, but all were solo shots and the Mets still won that game. It should also be pointed out that Leake allowed three home runs himself two starts ago as well. Last time out, deGrom was masterful in allowing just two runs (one earned) in eight innings vs. Colorado (only four hits).

This is a career-best win streak that deGrom is on and I really don't see an end in sight. He has a 1.53 ERA during the course of the current six-game streak, which began back on 6.12. Other than allowing the four solo shots to St. Louis on 7.7, he's allowed just 4 other runs - total during this stretch. He's gone at least seven innings in all six starts, four times going at least eight. Something to keep in mind is that in his last nine starts, Leake has an ERA of 4.56. The Mets really beat themselves yday by committing three errors. I don't see that happening again. St. Louis is 2-7 this season as a ML underdog of +125 to +175 on the road. 10* NY Mets

8* Colorado (3:10 ET): Rockies' fans were beginning to worry as their team (which had played so well for much of the 1st half) dropped 14 of 19 games heading into Sunday. But, they're now "sleeping a bit easier" after three consecutive wins, two of those coming against today's opponent, lowly San Diego. As I said in yday's analysis, this series was tailor-made for a Colorado bounce back as a case can be made that the Padres are the worst team in the league (-126 run differential). They also don't score much on the road (3.6 rpg), ranking last in that department. Making matters more frustrating for San Diego is that they actually HAVE scored in this series (13 runs in two games), yet lost both games. I see Colorado finishing off the sweep Weds afternoon.

Monday saw the Rockies jump out to a 7-2 lead early and hold on for a 9-6 win. Yesterday saw both teams score three times in the first inning, but it was the home team taking control from there. Today sees Clayton Richard attempting to break the trend and become the only Padres starter in the series not to get jumped on early. On the surface, his league-leading ground ball rate would seem to serve him well here. But, the bottom line is Richard has a 7.78 ERA in seven career starts here at Coors Field. It also won't help his cause that he's a low strikeout pitcher. He comes in sporting a 6.75 ERA and 2.00 WHIP his L3 starts overall as well (4.65 ERA L10 starts). Considering the way the Rockies have swung the bats the L3 days (31 runs scored!), this could end up being a pretty bad start for Richard. I also think it would be a mistake to assume he can get the same kind of run support the previous two Padres starters received (ended up being irrelevant) as well. 

For Colorado, Jon Gray will be looking to bounce back from an awful outing in which he allowed eight runs in two innings. Fortunately, we can lean on the fact that prior to that rough go of it (was on the road), he had allowed 2 ER or less in four consecutive starts. He's also fared quite well in the past against San Diego, including recording a franchise-high 16 K's in a start last September. He's yet to face them in 2017, but has a 2.30 ERA in seven career starts against them. That includes a somewhat remarkable 0.86 ERA here at Coors Field (three starts). He should love facing this San Diego lineup which ranks last in runs scored, team batting average and OBP. 8* Colorado

8* Cleveland (10:15 ET): I feel that the Indians are a lot better than their record indicates as they are #1 in the American League in runs allowed, something that should serve them well down the home stretch. Though the division lead is only 1.5 games currently, I think most (myself included) are anticipating the Tribe winning the AL Central for a second straight year. After all, they have a run differential of +65 while the second place Twins are actually -63. So the fact that the race is so tight currently makes little to no sense to this handicapper. Part of the Indians' problem has been unusual struggles at home (21-24) and against the National League (4-11). They'll have to wait for another time to rectify the former, but last night saw them take a step in the right direction w/ the latter, beating up on the sorry Giants, 5-3. I have them winning again tonight. 

I feel that the oddsmakers have been VERY slow to react as to just how bad the Giants are this season. That feeling is reinforced by the fact that no team has lost more at the betting window (-27.4 units). This is a bad matchup for them as well considering Cleveland is #1 in the A.L. in runs allowed and now gets to face one of the weakest lineups in all of baseball (28th in runs scored) which has to send the pitcher up to bat as well. Yes, the loss of the DH affects Cleveland too, but the Giants only average 3.5 runs per game at home as their roster is no longer built to win in today's home run heavy game. They've hit only 77 balls out of the park this season, by far the fewest in all of baseball. Going back before the All-Star Break, the team has lost seven of eight and that includes two to the sorry Padres over the weekend.

Indians' starter Mike Clevinger should have a field day here against a lineup that is 28th in OBP and last (30th) in slugging. Even the embattled Josh Tomlin was able to turn in a quality start at the Giants' expense last night. Clevinger comes in w/ a 1.00 ERA and 0.89 WHIP his L3 starts and will be working on 10 days rest. Last we saw him, he was throwing six scoreless innings of three-hit ball against the Tigers. He's allowed 2 ER or less in five straight starts. It's a clear edge here for Clevinger against Ty Blach, who has a 6.46 ERA and 1.892 WHIP his L3 starts for the Giants. The last time Blach faced an American League lineup here at home, he gave up seven runs. The team has lost 14 of 18 here at home while Cleveland has been one of baseball's better road teams w/ a 27-19 record away from home. 8* Cleveland

8* Colorado (8:40 ET): Needless to say, the Rockies have to be thrilled to be back at Coors Field, facing the lowly Padres no less! It was a somewhat ugly end to the first half of the season for a team that spent a good deal of time in first place in the NL West. In fact, after losing their first two games after the All-Star Break, their record was just 5-14 over a 19-game stretch. But Sunday's 13-4 over the Mets was just what "the doctor ordered" coming into this homestand, which will take them through the weekend. As alluded to earlier, San Diego is an ideal opponent to allow them to get back on track. The Padres own the worst run differential in all of MLB (-124) and are the lowest scoring road team - by far - at just 3.5 runs per game. Not even the hitter friendly confines of this park can save them today, I'm afraid.

Colorado, of course, has little difficulty scoring at home. Their 5.9 runs per game scoring average is tied for the best in all of baseball, which is not surprising at all. They're batting a collective .293 here, a far cry from the .226 clip San Diego bats at on the road. The Padres did score more than normal last night, but still, six runs was not enough and the game was basically out of reach after a five-run Rockies' third. I expect another big day at the plate here from Colorado as they face Dinelson Lamet, who is allowing lefties to hit .306 against him and has not pitched well on the road (8.00 ERA, 1.611 WHIP). Lamet has somehow avoided facing the Rockies to this point in '17 and tonight marks his first start since the Break. On July 6th, I played against him and he wound up giving up six runs in an 11-2 loss to Cleveland. 

The Rockies counter w/ Antonio Senzatela, who is making his first big league start in nearly a month. The team chose to rest him, first by using him out of the bullpen, then sending him down to Triple-A. Though his last several starts certainly weren't great, this was merely an attempt to limit the pitcher's inning, not a move based on performance. Senzatela's 10-5 team start record this year includes a 2-0 mark vs. SD, one win coming at home and the other on the road. He went seven innings and allowed just two runs on five hits in the one here at Coors. The Padres are just a dreadful road team overall, getting outscored by 1.7 rpg. Again, I feel this should be a "bounce back" type week for the Rockies and a sweep of this series would not surprise me in the least. 8* Colorado

8* Run Line Philadelphia (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Phillies +1.5. The Phils cashed for me on the RL last night, but the 6-5 loss (in 10 innings) means the revenge angle is still in play here as they've now lost four in a row to the Marlins (were swept here back in late May). In yesterday's analysis I mentioned that no team has played more one-run games this year than has Philly (36) and it's not even close. The fact that they are 11-25 in those contests certainly has a large hand in the team owning the worst overall record in MLB (30-61). But be aware that their YTD run differential remains better than those of the Padres and Giants. I'll continue to take advantage of the rare occurrence of Miami being in this price range

Monday's starter for Marlins was Tom Koehler. He entered in w/ a terrible 13.03 ERA and 2.689 WHIP His previous three starts. The Phillies were able to get to him early w/ four runs in the second, but sadly were unable to do much else the rest of the game. Incredibly though, the Marlins have a starter going tonight whose 2017 performance has been even WORSE compared to Koehler! Like Koehler, Adam Conley had been demoted earlier in the year because of it. Tonight wil be Conley's first start at the big league level in over two months and for good reason ... in his L3 starts, he posted a 15.18 ERA and 2.343 WHIP! He is 0-3 at home this season. He has not faced the Phillies in 2017. His minor league resume was hardly impressive either as he finished 3-3 w/ a 5.49 ERA.

Making this matchup somewhat interesting is the fact that Phillies starter Vincent Velasquez has also been persona non grata for the last month or so. But in his case, it was injury, not ineffectivenees, that caused him to miss time. Velasquez has been out w/ an elbow injury since May 30th, ironically suffered against these Marlins. Earlier in the year (back in April), Velasquez had pitched quite well against the Fish, holding them to just three runs in 6 1/3 IP at Citizens Bank Park, a game the Phils won 7-4. Unlike Conley, Velasquez's rehab starts went relatively well. I'll call for no worse than a one-run loss by the visitors here.  8* Run Line Philadelphia (+1.5)

10* Toronto (7:10 ET): The last time these two AL East rivals met (June 30th - July 2nd), the Red Sox absolutely dominated, outscoring the Jays 29-6 en rout to an easy three-game sweep at Rogers Centre. But tonight marks an excellent shot at revenge for Toronto as Boston is in a HORRIBLE spot, not only coming off the Sunday Night Game, but a day-night doubleheader as well! That's after a "controversial" (played game under protest) 16-inning loss on Saturday. The Red Sox are using this opportunity to reinsert Eduardo Rodriguez back into the starting rotation after he spent virtually all of June on the disabled list. But Rodriguez won't nearly be enough; in fact, Toronto has the better pitcher going in this one, that being Marcus Stroman.

I like what I've seen from Stroman of late as he has a 1.37 ERA and 1.118 WHIP his last three starts (no home runs allowed either). In his final start before the All-Star Break, he held high-powered Houston (highest scoring road team in MLB) to only one run and six hits. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of that win is how much the market respected him w/ the money line closing at -140. For whatever reason, he's not getting the same kind of respect here and that means there is a TON of value. Toronto does come in off B2B losses, but yday's was an extra-inning affair that easily could have gone either way. Stroman will be facing a Boston lineup that was held w/o a run for 22 innings at one point by Yankees pitching. Red Sox hitters were 3 for 38 w/ RISP in the weekend series.

Rodriguez' last start came on June 1st and he gave up four home runs and seven runs overall. I find that starters often struggle their first time back on the mound after a long stint on the DL. It was a knee injury that kept him out, which can be tricky to bounce back from. It certainly doesn't help that Rodriguez has a 6.35 lifetime ERA against the Blue Jays either. Again, don't look for him to get a ton of support either as the Red Sox offense has been in serious decline this season, especially of late as they're batting a collective .210 (2.9 rpg scored) the L7 games. I really can't stress enough how bad of a spot this is for Boston and w/ Toronto having revenge, it becomes an even bigger play for yours truly. 10* Toronto

8* Run Line Philadelphia (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Phillies +1.5. Plays on the Phillies have been few and far between this season and figure to grow even more infrequent as the season winds down. The club enters Monday w/ the worst overall record in baseball (30-60) and that's after winning Sunday (5-2 at Milwaukee). I would like to point out, however, that both the Giants and Padres have worse run differentials over the course of the season. The Phils also come into this series w/ revenge on their minds after being swept by the Marlins here in Miami, back in late May. Speaking of getting swept, that's what happened to the Fish (at the hands of the Dodgers) over the weekend. Based on the starting pitching matchup, the home team is clearly overvalued in this one and I feel confident in saying Philly will do no worse than a one-run loss here.

Marlins starter Tom Koehler simply should never be in this price range, no matter the opponent. He enters Monday w/ a 7.20 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in 10 starts, seven of those resulting in team losses. Recently, the numbers have only gotten worse. While this includes one start that predates a demotion to the minors, his L3 big-league starts have seen him produce a 13.03 ERA and 2.689 WHIP, truly wretched numbers indeed. This will be his first time pitching at home since 5.16 when he allowed eight runs in just three innings against Houston. Since returning to the big leagues, Koehler has allowed 10 runs in 6 2/3 innings, although four of those were unearned. Still, Miami lost both games and Koehler isn't likely to turn things around any time soon. Nor are the Marlins as a whole. Koehler did not pitch in the last series w/ the Phillies.

Meanwhile, I like what I saw out of Phillies' starter Jack Eickhoff his last time out as he blanked the Padres for five innings, that coming on the heels of another impressive performance, that being holding Arizona to just one run in six innings. Both starts did come at home, but while his TSR is 0-7 on the road, this will be one of the weaker opponents he's had to face outside of Miami. The Marlins are averaging just 4.2 rpg at home this season. As was the case w/ Koehler, Eickhoff did not pitch in the previous series between these two teams. There have been four different times this season that the Phillies have lost an Eickhoff start by exactly one run. Their last loss (Saturday) was also of the one-run variety. Overall, no team has played more one-run games this season than the Phils (35!) and it's not even close. (Arizona is the only other team w/ more than 27). The fact they've gone 11-24 in those 35 games makes the RL more valuable here and they're probably "due" to win one of these one-run affairs sometime soon anyway. 8* Run Line Philadelphia (+1.5)

10* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The fact that the Cardinals suffered a brutal loss on Sunday is something I'm "all too aware of" as I backed them in the series finale in Pittsburgh. Entering the bottom of the ninth w/ a 3-2 lead, they ended up as 4-3 losers, making it twice in that three-game set that they ended up losing in the game's final at-bat. You may be asking yourself "why so quick to abandon ship?" as the Cards did outhit the Pirates yday 13-8 and continue to maintain a positive run differential for the season despite a losing record. Well, this play has everything to do w/ the pitching matchup as Adam Wainwright and Zach Wheeler face off for a second time in 10 days. Wainwright & the Cards emerged victorious at Busch Stadium two Saturdays ago, but as I'm about to get into Wainwright's recent results are generally misleading. Look for Wheeler & the Mets to get their revenge.

Wainwright has won 8 of his last 11 starts, including three straight. But pay little mind to that fact as he comes into Monday still sporting a 5.20 ERA and 1.495 WHIP for the season. He did pitch well against the Mets his last time out, conceding only one run on five hits in 6 2/3 innings of work. However, he's been prone to bad starts throughout the year, most of them coming on the road where his ERA and WHIP are 8.36 and 1.832 respectively. Therefore, a 4-4 team start record away from Busch Stadium this year has to be considered somewhat fortuitous. In 12 career appearances vs. the Mets, 10 of them starts, Wainwright has 4.65 ERA. So, generally speaking, starts like the last one are an aberration against this particular opponent. 

It should be pointed out that Wheeler also pitched well last Saturday, giving up just two runs in six innings. He'd been struggling some before that, but he's allowed 3 ER or less in 8 of his last 10 starts. It's uncommon for one pitcher to beat another two starts in a row, so that's a major reason why I'm backing Wheeler in this instance. While the Mets were embarrassed yday at home (lost 13-4 to the Rockies), they still won the weekend series against a foe superior to St. Louis and did so by averaging 9.0 runs per game. Overall, the Mets are the better offensive club here as they rank 5th in slugging (.448). St. Louis has a losing road record thanks to giving up 5.0 rpg. 10* NY Mets

10* Boston (8:05 ET): Just when you thought the Red Sox might start to pull away from the Yankees, they go out and lose to them Saturday in a wild affair that wasn't decided until the 16th inning. Boston played the game under protest for a play that occurred in the 11th inning, but the bottom line is they should have wrapped things up much earlier as New York didn't score until the top of the ninth. (Chris Sale was his usual masterful self). The two teams are probably glad that Saturday's game was played in the afternoon because they're playing a day-night doubleheader on Sunday, which puts a major impetus on the starters for today. With David Price on the hill for Game 2 (ESPN Sun Night Baseball), I'll back the Red Sox here and honestly, I'd feel even stronger if they were to lose the first game. Regardless of what happens in Game 1 though, I'm backing Boston in the nightcap.

The Yankees have been carried by their offense this year, which led by Aaron Judge is now 3rd in MLB in runs scored. That's a huge jump after ranking 22nd last year and Judge deserves a lion's share of the credit. But it's the other side of the ledger where I'm more concerned. Michael Pineda is now done for the year (Tommy John surgery), leaving a major hole in the starting rotation. The bullpen is in serious decline, whether you're talking Aroldis Chapman or Dellin Betances. In the case of Betances, his heavy workload over the L2 seasons can probably be blamed. Furthermore, the Yanks should probably feel fortunate that they were #4 in runs allowed over the first half among AL clubs. The defense, which often plays a HUGE factor in a team's number of runs allowed, is simply not very good. I don't have a ton of confidence here in starter Masahiro Tanaka, who has been routinely hammered on the road this year (6.24 ERA, 1.632 WHIP).  

Now the Yankees have certainly been one of Price's toughest opponents through the years. But w/ the lefty having allowed 3 ER or less in eight of his nine starts this year, I'll still gladly back him at this price, especially at Fenway Park. Boston is 26-15 in home games this season. He has not allowed a home run in four starts. It certainly is odd to see the Red Sox offense struggle the way it has over the previous seven games (2.9 rpg w/ .195 BA). I look for them to knock around Tanaka tonight the same way they did last month when they scored five time off him in five innings. 10* Boston

8* Run Line Kansas City (2:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Royals +1.5. Six times the Rangers and Royals have met this season and all six times the combo of Rangers & Under has hit. Today marks the final time KC can achieve victory at Texas' expense in 2017. They've taken two hard luck losses to begin this series, first blowing a 3-0 lead on Friday, then losing 1-0 last night w/ the game's only run scored in the top of the ninth. The irony here is that for much of the year it has been the Rangers who have experienced the hard luck, which some (myself included!) would say was "deserved" after LY's unsustainable blueprint that saw 36 of their 95 wins come by one run. Thanks to the L2 days and the fact Yu Darvish is pitching for the Rangers today, we are now able to get some added insurance on the Royals, which was NOT the case either Friday or Saturday. 

We should not be too intimidated by the fact Darvish is pitching here however, as the Rangers have lost his L5 starts w/ him turning in a 5.61 ERA and 1.472 WHIP the last three. Granted, he was a bit of a hard luck loser in his final start before the All-Star Break (allowed just two runs on three hits in 7 1/3 IP), but note he did also walk four batters there. That was after getting hammered by Boston in his previous start. He was sharp against the Royals back in April, but did allow 2 HR's. I've said this in my analysis each of the last two days (and it hasn't mattered), but the Rangers' bullpen is not good on the road as their ERA/WHIP is 6.17/1.730.

The Royals have wasted two perfectly good starts from Jason Hammel and Danny Duffy so far in this series. Today, Ian Kennedy goes. Kennedy can probably empathize w/ Darvish's winless stretch as he too went a long period w/o a win. In fact, he was winless over his first 11 starts of 2017. But since that time, he's 3-0 w/ a 2.67 ERA. Incredibly, the Royals have lost 12 straight times to the Rangers. You just don't see streaks like that very often. I'm a firm believer in the revenge angle (for a previous sweep of three or more games), but given how the first two games of this series have gone, I'll be a little more conservative and say the home team won't do any worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Kansas City (+1.5)

10* St. Louis (1:35 ET): The current narrative in the NL Central is that the Cubs will eventually get their act together and wrest away first place from Milwaukee. But don't sleep on the Cardinals, who are just a game back of the reigning World Series Champs and have the superior YTD run differential as well. After dropping Friday's opener, the Redbirds shut Pittsburgh out yday, 4-0. Starter Lance Lynn was the hero, not only for tossing 6 1/3 scoreless innings, but also due to supplying all the run support that was necessary w/ a two-run double. Today, the Cards have their most accomplished starter going, that being Carlos Martinez, who the Pirates have somehow gotten to avoid in seven prior head to head meetings w/ their division rival. I'll back Martinez here, noting that the Cards have not lost any of their previous four series.

Martinez hasn't been at his best lately, losing his last three starts. But pay no mind to that or the fact he's just 6-8 in his team-leading 18 starts. Because Martinez ranks among the NL leaders in ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and innings pitched. Opponents are batting just .213 against him for the year, so the won-loss record definitely "deserves" to be a bit better. He's turned in four starts w/ 10+ K's, including his last one on the road. The Pirates hardly present a formidable challenge at the plate as they rank 24th in runs scored, 23rd in team batting average and 27th in slugging. Of course, they were shutout yday. At home, the Bucs are averaging only 3.7 runs per game.

Pirates starter Trevor Williams has only faced the Cardinals as a reliever previous to today. All three appearances came last year and the results were not great as his ERA was 6.23. Today will be his 13th start overall and last time out happened to be his shortest stint to date. He needed 80 pitches just to record 11 outs and gave up three runs in the process. The team has lost each of the last five times he's taken the mound. To me, the Cards are a team to watch here in the second half while the Pirates likely fade into obscurity as they're a team that has been below .500 the entire season. 10* St. Louis

8* Over Rays/Angels (9:05 ET): Similar to the Over play on Rangers-Royals, I'm counting on the "just due" factor just a bit in this one. That can be dicey, but like the other matchup discussed in this three-pack, all five head to head meetings this year have stayed Under the total. As have 11 of the 12 the past two seasons including seven straight. While we're bucking a significant trend tonight, I feel the play is warranted because we're getting a good number to work with plus the Rays remain the top Over team in the American League! Last night's game saw both teams score early (1-1 after two), but from there it was nothing but scoreless frames until TB won it in the top of the 10th. I can't see a repeat of that this evening.

Though he comes in w/ a miniscule 0.591 WHIP his last three starts, the Rays' Alex Cobb has by no means by immune to bad outings. In fact, that three start stretch includes him allowing seven runs at Baltimore, his last road start. Yes, that also illustrates just how dominant he was in the other two, but one of those was at Tropicana Field and the other in a NL park (didn't have to face the DH). Two of his last three starts in AL parks that are not his own have been disasters. There was the aformentioned one in Baltimore, plus he allowed NINE runs and 14 hits in Seattle back on June 3rd. He has a 6.51 ERA in five career starts vs. the Angels and Mike Trout (who just returned to the lineup yday) has hit two homers off him in five at-bats. It goes w/o saying that the Angels lineup is far more formidable now that their perennial MVP candidate is back.

JC Ramirez may be the staff leader in wins for the Angels w/ 8, but that's misleading as he also has a 4.47 ERA (which includes time in the bullpen). As a starter, he's struggled at home w/ a 5.21 ERA and 1.307 WHIP and he's winless (0-4) in eight tries. He's coming off one of his better outings of the season, having held Texas to no runs and two hits over six innings on Sunday. But even then, he issued five walks and had just two strikeouts. Ramirez had allowed 4+ ERA in five of seven starts previous to that one. Bottom line is that I anticipate a lot more scoring here than we saw last night. 8* Over Rays/Angels

10* Kansas City (7:15 ET): The Royals let me down last night as the blew a 3-0 lead and lost 5-3 to the Rangers. They are now 0-5 head to head w/ Texas in 2017, having also been swept down in Arlington back in late April. Those who have been following my picks for an extended period of time know that I "swear by" this angle, which says to back any team playing w/ revenge for a prior sweep of three games or more. Obviously, it's still in play tonight. The Royals outhit the Rangers last night, 8-7, not to mention starter Jason Hammel took a no-hitter into the sixth! It was an unfortunate loss, but one the Royals should be able to bounce back from as the Rangers have not enjoyed anywhere near the kind of good fortune they did last year. I'm on the home team again. 

Danny Duffy will be making his 14th start of the year for KC tonight. Four of the previous 13 (including the last one) have been bad (allowed 5+ ER), but in the other nine he's allowed 2 ER or less. In the previous series w/ the Rangers, he took what is the definition of a "hard-luck loss" as despite throwing 7 1/3 scoreless innings of four-hit ball, the Royals lost 1-0. Last time out, he allowed three home runs in a loss to the Dodgers, but one could argue that was a good spot to "waste" as he was a +255 ML underdog against Clayton Kershaw. I fully expect Duffy to bounce back here as he has a 2.75 ERA and 1.194 WHIP at Kauffman Stadium. Due to a stint on the DL, this will be his first time pitching here since May 18th. Also, lost in the three home runs allowed last time out was the fact he finished the start w/ a 9-0 KW rate. 

This will be a battle of lefties as the Rangers send Cole Hamels to the bump. He's working on a 13 1/3 scoreless inning streak, but don't be surprised at all to see him regress in this start. He has a 5.09 ERA on the road this year. Note that the Rangers' offense has made it easy for him by scoring a total of 43 runs in his last four starts! While I expect this game to be higher scoring than anticipated (see Over play), I don;t envision Hamels getting anywhere near that kind of support. Also, as mentioned yday, the Rangers' bullpen has largely been a disaster on the road this year w/ a 6.17 ERA and 1.730 WHIP. Revenge wll be sweet for the home team (who "should" have won yday, if not for some cluster luck by the Rangers) in this one. 10* Kansas City

8* Over Rangers/Royals (7:15 ET): Additionally, I also like the Over in tonight's Rangers-Royals matchup. Not only has Texas won all five meetings this season, but the Under has also cashed all five times as well. In addition to the "just due" factor, we're looking at a situation where Texas was very fortunate to allow only three runs last night. In the analysis for my play on the Royals tonight, I spoke about the fact that starter Danny Duffy has typically pitched well at home this season. I stand by that. However, might he too be "due" for an Over to hit? The Under has cashed in all five of his home starts this season. He spent all of June on the DL, but remember that he closed 2016 w/ all six starts in September going Over the total. 

As for Cole Hamels, who gets the nod Saturday for the Rangers, all four of his road starts this year have gone Over (6-1 Over overall). His last four starts, which includes one before his own extended stay on the disabled list, have seen the Texas offense score an incredible 43 runs! All four games have seen at least 10 runs scored total w/ three of them seeing 14 or more runs. Though he comes in on a 13 1/3 inning scoreless streak, I expect Hamels to struggle some here being that this is a road start and he has a 5.09 ERA this year outside of Arlington. Finally, I'll again reiterate how bad the Rangers' bullpen has been this year on the road w/ a 6.17 ERA and 1.730 WHIP.  8* Over Rangers/Royals

10* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET): While many teams sport a worse record, there's no denying the Cubs belong on the short list for "biggest disappointments" in the first half of this MLB season. Last year, the team essentially dominated from "start to finish" last year en route to the franchise's first World Series win since 1908. Despite bringing back the vast majority of key contributors, 2017 has been more of a struggle. They went into the Break at a game below .500 and were it not for their terrible division, they might be in real trouble. Fortunately, there's still a lot of baseball to play though and that includes this three-game set in Baltimore where the Orioles are likely set for a major decline. The Cubs took the 1st game, 9-8 on Friday (after blowing an 8-0 lead!), and I feel they are poised for another win here tonight.

Back on May 9th, the Orioles were a season-best 12 games above .500 at 22-10 thanks to a six-game win streak. The decline has been both severe and fast. They are just 20-37 since and, of late, things have gotten quite ugly (11-21 L32 games). A loss like yday's, where they rallied back from an eight-run deficit (tied game in bottom of the eighth) only to still lose, can certainly be crushing. Of course, one could make the case that a loss such as Friday's was long overdue considering the team's record is somewhat propped up by a very fortunate 9-2 record in extra inning games (a MLB best!). Their -79 run differential (2nd worst in AL) and says their record should actually be a lot worse than it is. Based on the current trajectory, do not be surprised to see the O's end up in the AL East basement sooner rather than later. 

Emblematic of the Cubs' mediocre start is Jake Arrieta's 9-9 team start record. The former Cy Young winner actually began his career w/ Baltimore before enjoying a career renaissance w/ his current club. His numbers aren't all too impressive, but note that he rarely turns in B2B substandard outings and last time out he allowed four runs in 5 2/3 IP. He'll be opposed by a pitcher whose struggling far more than he, that being Wade Miley, who over his L3 starts has produced an awful 8.02 ERA and 2.431 WHIP. His season-long 1.748 WHIP is certainly cause for concern as he gets to face a Cubs lineup that hit five home runs yday and benefits from the use of the DH in this series. Pay little mind to the fact Baltimore is 25-16 in Camden Yards this season as they've actually been outscored here! Also, the Cubs are 14-6 this seasons vs. LH starters. 10* Chi Cubs

10* Over Rays/Angels (10:07 ET): If you're a believer in regression/progression to the mean like I am, then both of these teams should have been on your improved list for 2017. The Rays finished in last place in the AL East last year, but played far better than their 68-94 record would seem to indicate as they were doomed by a league-worst 13-27 record in one-run games. It was a somewhat similar story for the Angels, who were actually only outscored by 10 runs the entire season despite a 74-88 finish (were 0-4 in extra inning games!). Sure enough, both teams have improved here in 2017. The Rays moreso, as I'm calling from them to be the AL's second Wild Card. The Angles have no shot at a division crown as unfortunately the Astros also reside in the AL West. But don't discount them from also being a contender for that second WC, a spot which is wide open behind the four "obvious" playoff teams (Astros, Indians, Red Sox, Yankees). 

Now let's look at the actual matchup, shall we? Rather quietly, Tampa Bay was the AL's top Over team in the first half (53-36-1). Only the Mets have gone Over in more games. Their games average a solid 9.5 runs for the year. The offense went into the Break averaging just 3.3 runs over the L7 games, but should have a chance to get back on track tonight facing Ricky Nolasco, whose last start was a disaster of the highest order. He allowed eight runs in just 1 2/3 IP, a stark contrast from his two previous outings when he tossed 15 1/3 scoreless innings. Nolasco has allowed the most home runs in all of baseball (25) and his career numbers (6.67 ERA in 10 starts) vs. the Rays don't exactly foretell a quality start is on the horizon here.

There is a bit of good news today for the Angels. Actually, I can't think of any better news from their perspective. They'll be getting Mike Trout back! The perennial MVP candidate was hitting .337 w/ 16 HR's before suffering a torn ligament in his thumb back in late May. Like the Rays, LA's offense struggled going into the Break as they averaged just 2.7 runs over the L7 games. But Trout's return should pay immediate dividends. I say that knowing how well Rays starter Jacob Faria pitched in the first half, but it's still a somewhat limited sample size (six starts) for him. The Angels were an Under team in the 1st half, but that's b/c of what's taken place on the road (18-30-2). Here at home, we've actually seen slightly more Overs than Unders. When these teams met for four games at Tropicana Field back in late May, all four games stayed Under w/ none seeing more than seven total runs scored (each team recorded a shutout in the series). That brings the Under to 10-1 the L11 H2H matchups, so if anything we're just "due" for an Over tonight. 10* Over Rays/Angels

10* Kansas City (8:15 ET): For the past several seasons, the Royals and Rangers have been two of the American League's best teams. Not this year, however. KC dug themselves a massive hole w/ an awful start to the season, but to their credit, they've climbed out of it somewhat. They went into the Break a game above .500, although they were swept in their last series (Dodgers) and have been outscored by 25 runs over the course of the season. Texas' first half can be summarized by one important word - regression. Last year's team rode an unsustainable blueprint en route to 95 wins (most in AL) and a divsion title. They outscored opponents by only EIGHT runs the entire season, clearly benefiting from a historic 36-11 record in one-run games. This year's run differential is actually superior (+29), but they happen to be two games BELOW .500. 

Now let's look at the actual matchup we have on Friday. The Rangers swept a four-game set from the Royals, in Arlington, back in late April. That was when KC wasn't playing well at all (ended April on a nine-game losing streak). But since May 1st, they're a solid 37-27. Going back to last season, the Rangers are a somewhat stunning 10-1 head to head w/ the Royals. That, coupled with the discussion above, makes me think some serious regression is about to take hold this weekend. Texas is not a particularly good road team this season (just 18-25) and is coming off just its second shutout loss of the season (Sunday vs. Angels). Back when they swept the Royals in April, Kansas City's offense was not performing well at all. They scored just five runs in those four games. But the offense has since "upped its game" a bit and now ranks 21st in team batting average as well as 22nd in slugging. That's actually pretty good when you consider they were 30th in both categories at one point.

The Royals' should have a chance at continuing their offensive resurgence in this game as they face Martin Perez, who has a 4.60 ERA and 1.659 WHIP in 16 starts. Perez has allowed at least four runs in three consecutive starts (all at home), although two of those actually resulted in Rangers' wins and he received ample run support. Going back further, he's allowed 4+ runs in five of his last six starts. KC counters w/ Jason Hammel, who had a poor 1st half as well (4-13 TSR), but he's allowed 3 ER or less in six of his last seven starts and seems "due" (for a win) to me. As a sizable underdog (+187), he pitched well his last time out (in Dodger Stadium), turning in a quality start. If this one were to come down to the respective bullpens, that's a big edge for the Royals as Rangers' relievers have a collective 6.26 ERA and 1.750 WHIP away from home this year. 10* Kansas City

8* Calgary (7:00 ET): Calgary, who has been the CFL's best team over the past three seasons (despite winning only one Grey Cup), is off to yet another strong start here in 2017. They are w/o a loss (2-0-1) and have won B2B in impressive fashion after opening the campaign w/ a tie against Ottawa (Grey Cup rematch). At 34.3 PPG, they are - easily - the league's highest scoring team. Montreal is somewhat at the opposite end of the spectrum. Their games - on average - are the lowest scoring in the league right now at just 38.0 points per game and that's largely due to an offense that is averaging a league-low 17.3 PPG. While that number is likely to start going up, I feel the Als are severely outclassed here. Lay the short number. 

  Close games have generally been the rule this year in CFL, but the Stampeders are off an easy 29-10 win last week, on the road, over Winnipeg. They forced three turnovers and shut the Blue Bombers out in the second half. Something curious when examining past head to head matchups between these two is that the Stamps have failed to cover any of the past five meetings. They've actually lost three of them outright, including LY's lone visit to Molson Stadium, by a score of 17-8 as nine-point chalk. Considering the respective trajectories of the two franchises during this time, Montreal holding a 3-2 series edge makes little sense. But what it has done is create a ton of value on the road favorite here. One would have to go all the way back to 2013 to find the last time the Stamps were favored by fewer than five points in a game against the Als.

Montreal has yet to score more than 20 points in a game this season. Calgary's 29 pts last week were their fewest scored in any game to date this year. That right there should tell you what the Als are up against here. Montreal is just 3-11 ATS its L11 home games and keep in mind it's one win this year came by a single point over Saskatchewan, who was the worst team in the league last year. Calgary has covered 8 of its last 11 road games. I just can't understand why the line would be so low here as the Stamps are clearly the better team and probably due to cover against the Als anyway. 8* Calgary

10* Over Stampeders/Alouettes (7:00 ET): Calgary, who has been the CFL's best team over the past three seasons (despite winning only one Grey Cup), is off to yet another strong start here in 2017. They are w/o a loss (2-0-1) and have won B2B in impressive fashion after opening the campaign w/ a tie against Ottawa (Grey Cup rematch). At 34.3 PPG, they are - easily - the league's highest scoring team. Montreal is somewhat at the opposite end of the spectrum. Their games - on average - are the lowest scoring in the league right now at just 38.0 points per game. That helps to explain this low total we have here (Als are 3-0 Under so far), but I believe we've reached a point where there's significant value in taking the Over. Also, these teams are probably "due" for a relatively high scoring game as the Under has cashed in the last six matchups. Take the Over.

Last year's two matchups were both low-scoring. The home team won each time, holding the visitor to just eight points! I would not look for a repeat of that here. Calgary has scored at least 29 pts in every game so far. Though they did just hold Winnipeg to only 10 points in a dominating win last week, note that they allowed 31 and 39 pts in the two games against the Redblacks to open the season. They also allowed 400+ yards both games. Something else to note is that the Over is 6-2 for the Stamps following an ATS win. I really liked what I saw from the receiving duo of Daniels and Jordan last week.

CFL games are averaging 52.9 points per game this year, almost an identical number to last year. So Montreal is way off the pace thus far and likely in store for what I call a "market correction." It should be noted that two weeks ago, the O/U line for their matchup vs. Edmonton was 55 pts. The defense has been impressive so far, but they haven't faced an offense quite like the Stamps yet. As for the offense, three straight games below 20 points is hard to do in this league, so if anything, they're just "due" here to put a season-high on the board. 10* Over Stampeders/Alouettes

8* Under Royals/Dodgers (4:10 ET): For much of the early part of this season, Kansas City was the lowest scoring team in baseball. They've since been able to raise their rankings to 27th in runs scored, 21st in team batting average, 29th in OBP and 22nd in slugging. By definition, that's improvement, but as you can see, it's still not all that impressive. No stadium has been better at visitor run suppression this year than has Chavez Ravine where Dodgers' opponents are averaging all of 2.9 runs per game (.209 batting average). Today, Clayton Kershaw is pitching and I shouldn't have to really reinforce what that means (just look at the money line!). But KC also has Danny Duffy going today and that means this should end up as a low-scoring game all around. Take the Under.

Kershaw is putting together one of his finest seasons, which is really saying something when you look back at his career body of work. Right now, he'd probably be the Cy Young winner in the National League. The Dodgers have won 16 of the 18 times he's taken the mound this season (including 12 straight!) and of late, it's as if opponents don't even have a chance. The lone run Kershaw allowed over his previous three starts was unearned and he has a 0.700 WHIP as well. He's allowed just nine hits in 20 IP and has 31 K's. At home this year, he has a 2.52 ERA and 0.868 WHIP, yet surprisingly the O/U results are split (5-5) in 10 starts. That's due to a combo of low totals and the fact the Dodgers can score too, but I don't think the latter element will be a factor this afternoon. Also remember that the Royals have to face Kershaw w/o the DH. That's a scary proposition. Over the Dodgers' last 18 games, they've allowed more than four runs just twice! They are #1 in runs allowed, having allowed 44 fewer than the #2 team (Cleveland).

Duffy can at least keep the Royals in this one though as 8 of his 12 starts have been quality this year. He was one out away from making it 9 of 12 his last time out as he gave up just two runs (on five hits) in 5 2/3 IP, his return from an oblique strain that kept him all of June. Going back, he's now allowed 2 ER or fewer in five of his last six starts. For Kershaw, holding the opposition to 2 ER or less is obvously "old hat" as he's done it 14 times in his 18 starts. I failed to mention earlier that Kershaw took a no-hitter into the 7th inning of his last start as he increased his YTD KW ratio to 146-22. Hopefully, he does his thing again today and we don't have to play the bottom of the ninth, which is always helpful w/ an Under bet. Yesterday's game (5-4 win for LA) went into extra innings. 8* Under Royals/Dodgers

8* Arizona (4:10 ET): By any objective measure, the first half of the season has been a rousing success for the D'backs. They currently own the top Wild Card spot in the National League (trail the insanely hot Dodgers by 6.5 gms in the West) and are one of just four clubs to have outscored their opponents by 100+ runs over the course of the year. They are 53-35 coming into Sunday, which is well above projections after they lost 93 games a year ago. However, they did lose last night to Cincinnati, 7-0. That embarrassment has me thinking "revenge" for this final game before the All-Star Break. Cincinnati, which has actually performed somewhat better than expected (despite being 38-49), is not a good team and Homer Bailey being on the mound today seems to put them at a severe disadvantage.

In three starts so far, Bailey has a 12.65 ERA and 2.343 WHIP. Not good. Now, he is coming off his best start to date, one that saw him allow only one run (but on eight hits) in Colorado. But that right there should tell you just how horrid the first two starts of the season were. He allowed 14 runs in 4 2/3 innings and his strikeout numbers (7 TOTAL!) are anything but impressive so far. Last night marked just the 4th time all season that Arizona has been shut out and while they're 0-3 off the previous three occurrences, the fact remains this team can score here at Chase Field where they average a healthy 5.9 runs per game. That's the most rpg of any team in the National League and trails only the Yankees overall. The offense is a major reason why the D'backs are 33-14 at home this year.

Cincy is just 19-34 its L53 games and doesn't win B2B games very often. In fact, that's happened just twice over the last month. So recent history is not on the Reds side here nor is the venue as they face the best home team in MLB and are just 15-28 on the road themselves (-1.2 rpg). They're also only 5-14 vs. left-handed starters and face one here today in the form of Patrick Corbin, who is "due" a win after some tough results each of his last three outings. Despite allowing 3 ER or less in all three, Corbin has seen the team lose every time. Last time out, he had had the unfortunate experience of having to go opposite Clayton Kershaw, who took a no-hitter into the seventh inning. His two starts prior to that one saw Corbin allow just three runs in 12 2/3 IP.  The D'backs are clearly the better team here, especially at home, and should win this one easily. 8* Arizona

8* Colorado (3:10 ET): The Rockies have been one of the great stories of the 1st half as for a time they had the best record in all of baseball. But, recently, they have slipped. Most notably, they went 1-10 from 6.21 to 7.2, all but two of those games taking place on the divisional road. One would have thought that a return home, to face a pair of last place opponents, would signal an "uptick" prior to the All-Star Break. But instead, the Rockies have only managed a split of six games so far w/ the Reds and White Sox. Last night, they lost 5-4 after closer Greg Holland gave up a HR in the top of the ninth. Even when the Rockies were winning, run differential suggested that they were not in the Dodgers and D'backs class. But I feel they certainly should be able to handle the White Sox. Therefore, off a loss, they'll get my endorsement here. 

The White Sox are currently 10 games under .500, which is what was pretty much expected coming into the year, but they've been a bit more competitive than I would have thought. They've only been outscored by 22 runs as early in the year, their pitching staff was keeping them in games. But that's not really the case anymore as only five AL teams have allowed more runs this season and the team is just 7-12 its L19 games overall. You'd figure that the pitching would struggle here at Coors Field and sure enough they did give up 12 runs in a loss Friday. That came after giving up seven in B2B games to Oakland. Carlos Rodon starts the final game before the ASB and while he treated me well his last time out, note that was just his 2nd start of '17 and in the first (against the Yankees), he walked six batters.

Kyle Freeland goes for Colorado and he's made the most of these Interleague opportunities thus far. He's gone 3-0 vs. AL foes this season w/ a 2.95 ERA. Two of those starts were in AL parks as well, meaning he had to deal w/ the DH. While Chicago's lineup should theoretically improve here in the thin air, it really hasn't the first two games (just 9 runs total) as they lose the DH in this series. Freeland has not pitched well in any of his L3 starts, but I'll call for the bounce back today as I feel he'll get the requisite run support. Gerrardo Parra has been hitting the cover off the ball since returning to the lineup and you can trace his absence to the team's struggles previously. This is the kind of game, that if Colorado is a true playoff contender, they should win easily. 8* Colorado

8* NY Yankees (1:05 ET): The Yankees were staring at yet another defeat Saturday (would have been their 18th in last 24 games!) before a three-run homer by Clint Frazier in the bottom of the ninth changed all that. Of course, "some" (myself included) might be willing to call that a bit of "comeuppance" considering the way the team wearing pinstripes blew Friday's opener (led 3-0, lost 9-4 after rain delay). Despite what has happened over the last month, the Yanks are still in great shape entering the All-Star Break as they are only 3.5 games back of rival Boston in the AL East and also have one of baseball's best run differentials (4th) at +100. Milwaukee has been a major surprise as they continue to lead the Cubs in the NL Central, but I don't think I'm alone in believing that won't last for long.

Starting today for the Yanks will be Masahiro Tanaka. While he's been inconsistent for much of the year, Tanaka has most definitely been sharp of late. In fact, he's 2-0 (3-0 TSR) w/ a 1.29 ERA and 0.905 WHIP his L3 starts. He hasn't allowed a single home run during that stretch either. Having a 1.089 WHIP at home (eight starts) tells me that 4.25 ERA is certainly a bit misleading, and at least in the Bronx, he's due for better results. Over those L3 starts, he has beaten the likes of Yu Darvish, Carlos Rodon and Marcus Stroman, all top notch pitchers. Yes, I'm aware that during this 7-17 stretch the Yanks have not posted B2B wins even one time nor have they won a series. But I believe yday was a bit of a "game-changer" and today's game sets up well. 

Typically, the National League struggles in Interleague Play. The last season they posted a winning record against American League counterparts was 2003! It's another losing record so far here in 2017, but the Brew Crew are at least doing their part w/ an 8-4 mark in IL play. Still, they are underdogs for a reason and after being big dogs on the ML the L2 days, I find it curious that the Yanks are so inexpensive Sunday. Perhaps that's because Jimmy Nelson, Milwaukee's best pitcher is on the hill, but he's not been that great on the road (4.62 ERA, 1.205 WHIP). Over his L6 starts, he's gotten to face a relatively weak slate of opponents that includes all sub-.500 foes. The Brewers may have a better record than the Yankees, but their YTD run differential (+43) isn't half as good. 8* NY Yankees

10* Hamilton (10:00 ET): For the second consecutive week, whatever homefield advantage Saskatchewan might hope to enjoy is mitigated by the fact they'll be facing a team off a bye. I played against the Rough Riders in this same spot last week and sure enough they fell to Winnipeg, 43-40 in overtime. Defenders will point out that the Riders held a 10-0 advantage after the first quarter, but they also trailed 34-23 entering the fourth. Being that it was the first ever regular season game played at the new Mosiac Stadium, that will be a tough loss to get over. Meanwhile, the Ti-Cats have had more than two full weeks to stew over an embarrassing 32-15 loss at Toronto in Week 1 where they were actually 3.5-pt favorites. That's the most lopsided single-game result of the CFL season to date and as a result, I think Hamilton is primed for a bounce back. 

The Ti-Cats did not end 2016 well, dropping six of their final seven games w/ the lone win coming in OT (against eventual Grey Cup Champ Ottawa!). They also haven't had much luck at the betting window either, going just 1-8-1 ATS their L10 games. I say that latter record signals a market correction is forthcoming. Note that last year, they were favored against the Riders in both matchups and beat them 53-7 at home. They were 5.5-pt favorites here in Regina, although they did lose that game 20-18. But now that the market has shifted to them being an underdog, they are where the value lies.

Saskatchewan, as I said last week, is somewhat unaccustomed to the role of favorite. They were chalk all of three times last season, two of those coming in the first three games. After last week, they have now lost outright each of the last four times they have been favored. Going back to the start of the 2015 season, the Riders have been favored nine times and lost outright EIGHT of them! The last time they won and covered as chalk was September of '15. I'm 2-0 ATS in Saskatchewan games this season and plan on making it 3-0 ATS here. 10* Hamilton

8* Seattle (10:10 ET): Believe it or not, but the Mariners had actually lost eight in a row here at Safeco Field prior to last night's 7-2 win. While James Paxton and the bullpen held the A's to all of three hits Friday, the game was actually closer than the final score indicates as the M's didn't really have any breathing room until breaking loose for four runs in the bottom of the eighth, which effectively put the game out of reach. Still though, I expect them to likely win the next two days and head into the All-Star Break w/ some "momentum" (hate that word!) in what has been a very "up and down" 1st half. For my money, Oakland remains - clearly - the worst team in the American League. 

The A's had won three in a row before losing last night, but also had lost six straight prior to that brief win streak. Actually, speaking of "up and down," that's what it's been for them over the last month. Starting at 6.10, they've lost four straight, then won four straight, then lost four straight, then won four straight, then lost six straight, then won three straight and lost last night. That's an odd way to get to 11-15 over a 26-game stretch, but the bottom line remains this is a bad team, one that is a lousy 14-28 on the road this year while getting outscored by 1.4 rpg. They turn to a spot starter tonight, Chris Smith, who at 36 years of age will become the oldest A's pitcher in history to make his first big league start. At this point, I think it's fair to say he's NOT a prospect. He does have 64 relief appearances at the Major League level, but it says something that the team hasn't asked him to start until now. 

Note that prior to the eight-game home losing streak, Seattle was a very good 25-13 at Safeco Field. So, it definitely was a surprise to see them struggle like they did. But now that the streak is over, I look for them to play better in their home park. They average 5.1 rpg here. Starting tonight will be Andrew Moore, whose first two starts have produced a 0.733 WHIP. In 15 IP, he's allowed just 11 hits and perhaps more impressive is that he hasn't walked anybody. He has allowed 3 HR's, but other than that, he's been pretty dominant. One final thing to note is that Oakland's bullpen is pretty lousy on the road (5.92 ERA, 1.520 WHIP). 8* Seattle

8* Run Line Detroit (7:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Tigers +1.5. While they've struggled at home all season long (MLB worst, by far and away, at -21.8 units), Cleveland has won big each of the L2 days here at Progressive Field. I was on them Thursday when they routed lowly San Diego, 11-2. But, despite being large ML favorites last night, I thought the situation dictated an appropriate time to fade them as Carlos Carrasco and Jordan Zimmerman were facing off for a second straight start and the latter had revenge. But it was not to be as the Tigers lost 11-2. Tonight, the same situation presents itself w/ Justin Verlander again facing off against Mike Clevinger. The odds are not nearly as dramatically in the Indians favor this time around and I don't see Clevinger beating Verlander for a second straight time. But for a little "added insurance," we'll play the run line here.

Last Sunday saw the Indians win a wild 11-8 game w/ both of tonight's starters on the mound. Verlander, admittedly, turned in a poor effort as he allowed seven runs in just 3 1/3 innings. That paved the way for what appeared to be an easy Cleveland win as Clevinger allowed just one run on two hits through six. But the usually strong Indians' bullpen allowed the game to get a lot closer than it should have been as the final score was "only" 11-8 in their favor. That said, I look for a reversal of fortune on Saturday. While it's true that Clevenger has allowed 2 ER or less in four straight starts, he's also never lasted more than six innings in any of them. Also note that last September, Verlander and the Tigers beat Clevinger and the Indians 12-0 w/ Clevinger giving up five runs in only two innings. In only two of his 10 starts has Clevinger lasted longer than six innings. He's also winless at home (0-4 TSR) w/ a 4.50 ERA.

History also supports a Detroit bounce back in this spot as they have gone 6-1 this season after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. Also, Cleveland is still w/o skipper Terry Francona, who is recovering from a minor procedure for an irregular heartbeat. As for Verlander, while he's had two bad starts against the Indians this year, he also had one good one, that coming back on 5.2 where he allowed just two runs and four hits in 7 IP. Prior to the bad outing his last time out, he'd given up 3 ER or fewer in six straight starts. No worse than a one-run loss here for the Tigers. 8* Run Line Detroit (+1.5)