8* Over Warriors/Celtics (9:00 ET): This is the lowest O/U line of the series yet and furthermore it’s also the lowest O/U line for any Warriors’ game this postseason. Furthermore, there were only five regular season games involving the Dubs with an O/U line of 210.5 or lower. Three of those five went Over. Game 5 saw the teams combine to shoot a horrendous 20 of 72 from three-point range (27%) while Golden State going an uncharacteristic 9 for 40 and Steph Curry going 0 for 9. The Celtics also missed 10 free throws and shot just 41.3% overall from the field. Yet there were still 198 total points scored. 

You have to presume that we’re going to see better shooting tonight. Therefore, Over looks like the smart play when it comes to the total. Golden State, Curry especially, will be better from three-point range, for sure. Game 5 was the first time in Curry’s career that he failed to make a single three in a playoff game. Since coming into the league, he’s shot 46% from beyond the arc and averaged 4.4 makes per game, coming off a game where he failed to make a three. The last time he failed to make three threes in a game was Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals. He responded by hitting six in the 1Q of Game 1 in this series. 

It wasn’t just Curry. The four Warriors’ starters not named “Klay Thompson” went a combined 0 for 19 from behind the arc in Game 5. That will not happen again. Similarly, I can’t see Boston being held under 100 points for a third consecutive contest. That’s happened only once to them all season and it was back in November. The last three times they’ve been off B2B losses, they’ve averaged 114.3 PPG. Here at home in Game 3, they scored 116. Golden State isn’t nearly as stout defensively on the road as they are at home. They give up six more points per game on the road compared to the Chase Center. 8* Over Warriors/Celtics

10* Under Orioles/Blue Jays (3:05 ET): Let’s try with the Under again on this AL East matchup. It may not have worked out for us back on Tuesday, but I think this is a great spot to try again as the Orioles are coming off back to back games where they scored six runs, which is a rarity. For the year, they are averaging only 3.9 rpg on the road and they have a team batting average of .229 in all games. While these teams have been an exception to the rule, usually it’s a good idea to play Unders in division games. With Toronto being such a solid favorite, it’s likely that they’ll win and that’s (hopefully) three less outs we have to worry about.

Now the Blue Jays did lose that game on Tuesday, 6-5. Then they blew a 5-0 lead yesterday, before battling back to win 7-6 in 10 innings. But the odds of them winning today, inside of nine innings seems strong. They’ve got Kevin Gausman starting. He used to pitch for Baltimore and was their top draft choice in 2012. His six seasons with the Orioles went OK, but when you look at the individual record, remember that he was pitching for a bad team. Gausman’s first year in Toronto has (predictably) been a lot better (although his TSR is only 7-5) and he has a 2.67 ERA and 1.189 WHIP. He’s yet to allow more than 3 ER in a start this season. 

At the plate, Toronto has been hitting the cover off the ball during a 15-5 run. But the “x-factor” in this game is Orioles’ starting pitcher Tyler Wells, who has a 2.81 ERA and 0.875 WHIP his last three starts. Like Gausman, Wells has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season. Both are coming off quality starts here. With the teams being “due” for an Under, let’s play accordingly as the Orioles are set to regress (at the plate), but Wells should keep Toronto in check. 10* Under Orioles/Blue Jays

7* Run Line Oakland (1:35 ET): The A’s have just one win in June and now that includes an 0-5 record against the Red Sox following yesterday’s 10-1 loss. None of that is inspiring heading into today’s series finale at Fenway Park, but the road team will have Paul Blackburn on the mound and him getting an additional 1.5 runs seems like a good value to me. To be clear, this is a run line play where I’m backing the A’s +1.5. With them having the edge on the mound, this is a smart play. The Red Sox are only 15-14 at home while Oakland has actually been more competitive on the road. 

Blackburn was outstanding his last time out, holding Cleveland scoreless over eight innings. He gave up only four hits, but unfortunately ended up not factoring into the decision as the A’s bullpen blew the game. Note that it was a one-run loss, a result we’ll take here. Plus, Blackburn has now allowed 3 ER or less in 10 of his 12 starts this year. He’s 4-0 in his seven road starts (6-1 TSR) with a spectacular 0.91 ERA and 0.907 WHIP.  Now he did struggle a bit against this Boston lineup back on June 4th, giving up four runs in four innings. But I think, on the road, he’s set to pitch a lot better this time out. 

Now Oakland needs some runs, obviously. They rank 29th (second to last) in runs scored and yesterday was the 22nd game this season they scored 1 run or less. Thankfully, they’ll be facing Rich Hill Thursday afternoon. Hill is 0-2 in four home starts with an 8.04 ERA and 1.659 WHIP. He’s made through six innings in just two of his 11 starts this season. There’s no disputing Boston has been the better team, both head to head and overall, but Oakland’s edge in today’s starting pitching matchup is substantial and getting an additional 1.5 runs in our “back pocket” is a nice luxury to have. Look for the A’s to do no worse than a one-run loss today. 7* Run Line Oakland

6* Run Line Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line where I am backing the Rays +1.5. In a matchup with an outstanding pitching matchup, there figures to be very few runs scored. So, in my opinion, this is the best way to play it. The Rays may have lost the series opener 2-0 (while the Yankees have won five straight and 12 of their last 13), but the visitors also have perhaps the best pitcher in baseball on the mound this evening, that being Shane McClanahan. Him +1.5 runs is a steal, even at this price. 

McClanahan comes in with a 7-0 team start record in his L7 starts (meaning the Rays have won all seven starts) with a 1.19 ERA and 0.772 WHIP over that stretch! His overall numbers for the season are not much different. I took him in his previous start, which came at home vs. St. Louis, and McClanahan did a number on the Cardinals’ lineup, allowing only one run on two hits over eight innings. He has not allowed more than three runs in any start all season while going at least six innings in 9 of his L10 starts. 

Now the Yankees will have arguably their top pitcher, Nestor Cortes, on the hill. This is why I feel more confident in taking the Rays on the RL as opposed to the money line. Cortes is having a similar year to McClanahan, although his ERA and WHIP are slightly higher. He also lost his last start after giving up a pair of homers and four runs total (lasted only 4 ⅓ innings). The Rays do hit lefties better than they hit righties and the team is a perfect 3-0 this season after a shutout loss. 6* Run Line Tampa Bay (+1.5)

10* Minnesota (4:10 ET): I was wrong on this matchup yesterday, as the Mariners were able to even the series up with a 5-0 shutout. The Twins just couldn’t muster anything against Logan Gilbert, who went six innings and gave up just four hits. But I think today’s matchup is in their favor and a win is rather necessary with their lead in the AL Central down to 2.5 games over Cleveland. As I said yesterday, Seattle is not a team I’m buying over the long haul as they overachieved to get to 90 wins last season. Look for the Twins, who have successfully bounced back from each of their L4 losses, to take this game and series.

While the Twins couldn’t do any damage last night against Gilbert, look for them to get to today’s starter for Seattle, Marco Gonzales. Gonzales may enter this game with a decent 3.63 ERA, but several other metrics indicate regression is on the horizon. The team has lost 8 of Gonzales’ 12 starts this season, including each of the last three. Part of that is they haven’t given him much support, which could be the case again today as the M’s have only scored a total of seven runs in their L3 games. Something to watch for with Gonzales is that his strikeout rate is way down this year. He also issued six walks in his last start. He’s 0-3 with a 9.37 ERA all-time vs. Minnesota. 

The Twins will certainly be happy to see Sonny Gray back on the mound Wednesday. Before landing on the injured list (for a second time this season), Gray was really “in a groove,” posting a 1.42 ERA and 0.684 WHIP his last three starts, all wins. Gray has a 2.89 ERA in 13 previous starts vs. Seattle, who is just 10-17 off a win this season, including 0-2 if it was a shutout. Gray should get some nice run support here as not only is Gonzales set to regress, but the Twins hit lefties well anyway. 10* Minnesota

9* Under White Sox/Tigers (1:10 ET): The White Sox string of Overs (five in a row) ended yesterday when they defeated Detroit 5-1. Still badly “in the hole” when it comes to run differential (-48), they’ll try and move within a game of .500 today as they look to finish off the sweep. But, because of said run differential, and the fact the inconsistent Vince Velasquez is on the bump, I’m not about to back Chicago. But I also can’t back the Tigers knowing they are - by far - the lowest scoring team in all of MLB. 

What aids the Tigers’ cause in this daytime matchup is the fact they have Alex Faedo starting. Faedo brings a 2.92 ERA into Wednesday and has arguably been the team’s most consistent starter. He’s yet to allow more than 2 ER in any of his seven outings, although he’s also yet to pitch after the sixth inning. But that’s okay because the Tigers’ bullpen has been surprisingly good this season, posting a 3.00 ERA. Yes, the White Sox have scored 5+ runs in six straight games, but they also average just 3.9 on the road for the year.

Detroit wishes it averaged 3.9 runs per game. They are last in the league at 2.8 and trail the second worst team by half a run per game.They are 29th (second worst) in OBP and dead last in slugging. So don’t expect many runs from the home team today. They’ve scored no more than three in five of the last six contests. I did mention earlier that Velasquez has been inconsistent for Chicago, but he’s capable of handling a lineup that struck out 14 times yesterday and went 0 for 8 with RISP. 9* Under White Sox/Tigers

8* Over Marlins/Phillies (7:05 ET): Both the Marlins and the Phillies have been hot as of late, but neither has been able to make up much ground in the NL East where the Mets continue to pace the division and the defending World Series Champion Braves have won 13 in a row. We’ve got ourselves a rubber match on Wednesday afternoon as the Phillies took Monday’s opener 3-2, but the Marlins bounced back with an 11-9 win yesterday. The teams are now a combined 19-7 in June (Phils 10-2, Marlins 9-5), so I’m laying off the side here. But I think that the total provides plenty of value in this daytime matchup. 

Miami was originally going to start Pablo Lopez in this spot, but he’s dealing with a wrist injury, so it looks like Daniel Castano will instead get the nod Wednesday. This is a significant downgrade for Don Mattingly on the mound. Lopez ranks third in the NL and eighth overall in ERA while Castano was just recalled from the minors earlier in the week. Castano will have to deal with a Phillies lineup that has scored 6+ runs in 8 of its 12 games this month. As a team, the Phillies are batting .300 over the last week. The Over is 16-5 in their last 21 games and a perfect 6-0 in game three of a series.

The Phillies may have only lost twice in their L12 games, but both losses saw them surrender 11+ runs. We saw their bullpen implode in last night’s game, giving up seven runs over the final three innings, including four in the ninth. Getting the start today will be Kyle Gibson, who has a 5.87 ERA his L3 starts and 4.40 for the season. Gibson allowed four runs in 4 ⅔ IP when he faced the Marlins back in April. Five of his last six starts have seen at least nine total runs scored and three of the last four meetings between these teams have seen at least 13 runs scored. Expect more scoring this afternoon (from both clubs). 8* Over Marlins/Phillies

9* Minnesota (10:10 ET): We’re getting the better team at “plus money” here and the Twins won the series opener, 3-2, here in Seattle. All they needed was a first inning home run from Byron Buxton last night as starter Chris Archer and the Twins’ bullpen easily shut the Mariners down. Prior to last night’s win, Minnesota had scored six or more runs in six of its last nine games. They lead the AL Central by 3.5 games but are seven up in the win column over second place Cleveland. I view the Twins as being underrated in this spot and will gladly take them in this price range. 

Seattle, who won 90 games last season despite a -51 run differential, was a lock to regress this season. Currently, they are fourth in AL West, ahead of only Oakland. Last night was the M’s fourth loss in six games and came on the heels of being one-hit (by Boston) on Sunday. There just hasn’t been much production at the plate lately and tonight they face Joe Ryan, who is having a very good 2022 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.992 WHIP. His numbers are even better on the road (1.61, 0.985) where he has a 4-0 team start record. He’s coming off the COVID list, but last time out Ryan easily defeated KC 9-2, allowing just one run in 5 ⅔ IP. 

Logan Gilbert starting is probably the sole reason that Seattle is favored in this game. Gilbert has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts and is on a streak of five consecutive quality outings. But, as mentioned above, this Twins’ lineup is raking the ball as of late. Buxton was named the AL Player of the Week for the last week while leadoff man Luis Arraez leads the league with a .362 average. 9* Minnesota

7* Cleveland (8:40 ET): The Guardians are trending up, thanks mostly to a pretty easy schedule as of late. The team has won 10 of its last 13 games and won four straight series, outscoring the competition 67-44 and that’s even with allowing 10 runs in a rare loss to Oakland on Saturday. Looking at the AL Central race Cleveland is just 3.5 games back of Minnesota and has a better YTD run differential. They’ve played seven fewer games than the Twins and that’s the difference in the standings right now. I look for the Guardians to continue rolling Tuesday as they open up a rare three-game series in Coors Field. 

These teams do not face off often. Cleveland has played only two games at Coors Field in the last decade, both in 2017! But an offense that’s hitting a collective .280 over the last week should thrive in this environment. They’ll face Antonio Senzatela, who has a terrible WHIP (1.854) and an 0-4 TSR over his L4 starts. Now three of those four outings came against San Francisco. But Senzatela also allowed six runs and 13 hits when he faced Miami here at home on June 1st. Behind Senzatela, the Rockies won’t have one of their top relievers as Tyler Kinley was placed on the 15-game DL on Sunday. 

The always reliable Shane Bieber will toe the rubber tonight for the Guardians. His ERA is 1.67 over the last five starts, four of them quality and then he didn’t allow any runs over 4 ⅓ IP vs. Texas last week. Yes, the Rockies are always a threat to score runs at home, but off B2B victories for the first time in a month (played a doubleheader on Saturday), this is a good time to fade them. Cleveland has scored three or more runs in every game since May 29th and figures to put up a big number today. Bieber should take care of the rest as the Guardians continue their pursuit of the Twins. 7* Cleveland

10* Under Orioles/Blue Jays (7:07 ET): These teams did go Over the total yesterday, but that was all Toronto, who put up 11 runs in a commanding victory. I was cool with that as the Blue Jays -1.5 (run line) was my top MLB play of the day. I know that I touted the offense in yday’s analysis and all that I said certainly rang true. The Jays are now 14-4 their last 18 games and have scored six or more runs in all but one of those wins. Yes, we have two starters that look shaky here. But I’m going with the Under today as I don’t think Toronto will score as many runs as they did Monday. Baltimore is not much of a threat to put a “crooked number” on the board. 

Over the last seven games, Blue Jays’ pitching has allowed fewer than two runs per game. They have three shutouts and two other games where they allowed just a single run. Opponents are batting just .191 and have scored 13 runs total, eight of those coming in one game by KC. Yusei Kikuchi will start Tuesday’s game for Toronto. He was the starter in that game where the Royals scored eight runs and lasted only two-thirds of an inning. But look at May when Kikuchi allowed 2 ER or less in all five starts. Baltimore is only putting up 3.7 runs per game on the road. They’ve had five or fewer hits in five of the last nine games overall. 

Meanwhile, it’s up to Jordan Lyles to try and slow down this Toronto offense. Recent numbers don’t look good for Lyles and, incredibly, the Blue Jays have scored 10 or more runs in six of their last seven games vs. the Orioles, going back to last season. But I think Lyles will surprise in this spot. He had a solid start to 2022, even beating the Yankees by holding them to just one run, and he’s given up 3 ER or less in 7 of his 12 starts. The Blue Jays probably won’t have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth either, so that’s three less outs to worry about. 10* Under Orioles/Blue Jays

7* Arizona (9:40 ET): These teams just played a four-game series last week, in Cincinnati, and both emerged with two victories. The Reds won the first two, but the D’backs bounced back to earn the series split by winning 7-0 and 5-4. That former result featured the same starting pitching matchup as we have today, Merrill Kelly for Arizona and Mike Minor for Arizona. Kelly had one of his best outings of the season to date, tossing six shutout innings of one-hit ball. Minor, who gave up three runs in 4 ⅓ IP, has now allowed a total of five home runs in his two starts. Look for the same result as last week. 

Before yesterday, Arizona had only one other win in June besides the two over the Reds. But then they clobbered the Phillies on Sunday, 13-1, snapping their nine-game win streak in shocking fashion. That should provide some much needed “momentum” heading into this series where they’ll face a Reds team that had lost four in a row before a 7-6 win Sunday over St. Louis. The D’backs haven’t been great so far here at Chase Field, but the Reds have been downright dreadful on the road where they are 9-22 and being outscored by 2.1 runs per game. The Reds are also 14-28 in games vs. right-handed starters.

Kelly, a righty, comes in with a 3.32 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in 12 starts. Those are solid numbers and his ERA is lower here at home. He’s only had one outing all year where he gave up more than three earned runs and that came against the Dodgers. For Cincy, Minor not only lost to Arizona last week, but also to a terrible Washington club 10 days ago. He allowed five runs (in just four innings) and three homers in that start.  7* Arizona

10* Boston (9:00 ET): I’m still a believer in Boston winning this series, so taking the points in Game 5 seems like the logical call. The Celtics still sport the higher net efficiency rating in the playoffs, even after losing Game 4. They’ve outscored opponents by six points per 100 possessions while Golden State is at just 3.9. While Game 4 was at home, remember that the Celtics did lead most of the way, until falling prey to a Steph Curry fourth quarter barrage. The Warriors are only averaging 103.5 PPG against Boston in six meetings this year. I just think taking the points is the way to go here. 

Of course, supporting a play on the Celtics here is the fact they have yet to suffer B2B losses in the playoffs. Since sweeping Brooklyn, they’ve gone a perfect 7-0 straight up and against the spread off a loss and five of those seven wins have been by double digits. Only one, Game 7 vs. Miami, was by fewer than eight points. Going back even further, the Celtics are 15-5 ATS off an outright loss as a favorite this season and 10-2 ATS following a double digit loss.

Boston had too many turnovers in Game 4. It’s something we’ve seen from them before in these playoffs and it usually ends in defeat. But the good news is that they almost always clean up the “turnover bug” the next game. The Celtics also shot just 40% from the field in Game 4, a number they will improve upon Monday night. They continue to shoot well from three; it was a disappointing 19 of 47 from inside the arc that cost them in the last game. This team is 33-17-2 ATS on the road. 10* Boston

9* Run Line Toronto (7:07 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I’m backing the Blue Jays at -1.5. Suffice to say, Toronto is now living up to its preseason hype as the team has taken 12 of its last 16 games to climb into the lead in the AL Wild Card race. That may not be as lofty a position as was expected from them, but no one expected the Yankees to be this good. At the opposite end of the spectrum in the division, you have Baltimore, who occupies last place and figures to remain there the rest of the way. For this series opener, I don’t see the Jays having much trouble putting up runs or winning big. 

Over the past two weeks, Toronto has averaged 6.8 runs per game while batting a collective .310. After a rare low-scoring effort on Saturday (lost 3-1), they got on back on track yesterday with a 6-0 win in Detroit. That was their third shutout win by more than six runs in the last six games and their fourth win by at least six runs during that same stretch. Here in June, all seven of the team’s wins have been by four runs or greater. Orioles’ starter Kyle Bradish has really struggled since his big league debut on 4/29, posting a 6.53 ERA and 1.593 WHIP in eight starts. I have no idea how the O’s have managed to win each of Bradish’s last three starts with him posting an 8.17 ERA and 2.18 WHIP during that time. I can’t see Bradish pitching well today, against a top five offense. 

So we know that Toronto is going to score some runs tonight, but what about preventing them? Expect starter Alek Manoah to take care of business as he checks in with a 1.81 ERA and 0.962 WHIP. Last time out, Manoah tossed six shutout innings and the Blue Jays ended up winning 7-0 over KC. The team is 4-0 in Manoah’s last four starts, winning the last two by a combined 12 runs. Manoah is now 16-3 his L19 decisions. 9* Run Line Toronto (-1.5)

10* LA Angels (7:08 ET): After a mystifying 14-game losing streak, the Angels have won two of three. They beat the Mets last night, 11-6, in what was their highest scoring effort in a month. Moving forward, I think the Angels will be fine. They are a better than average team and have a run differential comparable to the 34-25 Rays. Of course, the Mets have one of the best run differentials in all of baseball (3rd best), but their lead in the NL East is shrinking due to both the Braves and Phillies being red-hot at the moment. At the end of the day, the Angels are likely to start stringing some wins together while there are some obvious signs that the Mets may regress a bit. 

Patrick Sandoval gets the starting nod tonight for LA. The team has won six of his nine starts so far and Sandoval has a 2.81 ERA. He’s allowed 3 ER or fewer in all but one start, which was against a Toronto team that was red-hot at the time. The Mets are the second-highest scoring team in baseball so far (behind only the Dodgers), but I don’t see them continuing to average 5.0 runs per game. Also, the Mets have been somewhat fortunate to go 5-0 in extra inning games. Plus they’ve had several other come from behind wins. They are just 5-5 L10 games. 

But I think the player to watch in this game is the Angels’ Mike Trout. He recently suffered through a career-worst 0 for 26 slump and missed Friday’s series opener with an injury. However, in his return to the lineup, he hit a pair of home runs last night and went 3 for 4 at the plate overall. It’s obviously just a matter of time before Trout gets hot again. Look for him to deliver again tonight facing Taijuan Walker, who he is 10 for 16 lifetime against with three home runs and a triple. Recently, Walker has shown signs of regression with a 4.32 ERA and 1.44 WHIP his L3 starts. 10* LA Angels

8* Over A’s/Guardians (11:35 AM ET): A couple streaks came to an end yesterday as the A’s beat the Guardians 10-5. First off, it was Oakland’s first win over Cleveland this year in six tries. Secondly, the A’s also snapped what had been a 10-game losing streak overall. They are in rough shape so far, last in the AL West, and with a 21-40 record they seem likely to stay there. Cleveland is trying to catch Minnesota in the Central (four games back) and having a comparable run differential (to the Twins) seems like a sign that this particular race will tighten. But I’m focused on the total in this early Sunday matchup. 

The Over is 6-2-1 in all Oakland games this month. Only twice has their pitching staff surrendered fewer than five runs. In this series, two of the three games have gone Over and we’ve seen an average of 10.7 runs per game scored. Yesterday was obviously the highest of the bunch as the A’s exploded for 10 runs to snap their long losing streak. Now, for most of that game, it appeared that the A’s were heading to another loss. They trailed 5-2 entering the seventh, but got to the Cleveland bullpen and I’m projecting there to be a “carryover” type effect for Sunday. The Over has hit five of the last six times the A’s have played a fourth game in a series.

Cleveland will start Cal Quantrill in this game. He has decent numbers, but is likely to regress moving forward according to a number of advanced metrics (such as xwOBA, xBA and xSLG). There have been a total of 20 runs scored in Quantrill’s previous two outings. Oakland is going with Cole Irvin, who has a 4.31 ERA and 1.348 WHIP on the road this season. Some of the same advanced metrics also predict Irvin is likely to continue to struggle moving forward, and the A’s bullpen has been one of the worst in all of baseball this season. The Over is 4-1-1 in Cleveland’s last six home games vs. a lefty starter. 8* Over A’s/Guardians

10* Jack Della Maddalena (10:10 ET): This is the opener of the PPV portion of the card, a fight scheduled for three rounds in the Welterweight Division (170 lbs). Della Maddalena is 11-2 overall in his pro career and coming off a successful UFC debut where he defeated Pete Rodriguez by first round TKO back in January. Ramazan Emeev is 20-5 overall and 5-2 in the UFC, but off a loss last October to Danny Roberts.

Emeev’s last eight fights have all gone to the scorecards with the last two (a win and a loss) both being incredibly close as they were both split decisions. Emeev is not a particularly exciting fighter as he basically relies on landing a few big punches and then taking control in the clinch. But that wasn’t enough in losses to Roberts and Anthony Rocco Martin, both of whom were able to win on the judges’ scorecards due to more potent offensive flurries. 

Della Maddalena should be able to do the same to Emeev here. Back on Dana White’s Contenders Series, he was able to stay ahead on the cards due to his striking against Ange Loosa. Della Maddalena has now won 11 consecutive fights and the Rodriguez win was the 10th by stoppage. The Australian is only 25 years old and this is his opportunity to shine on the main card of a big UFC show. Look for him to get the win. 10* Jack Della Maddalena

7* Steve Garcia (8:35 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Lightweight Division (155 lbs). It takes place on the prelims with Garcia (12-4 overall, 1-1 UFC) taking on Maheshate Hayisaer, who is 6-1 in his pro career and will be making his UFC debut. When all is said and done, I expect Garcia to have his hand raised.

This play boils down to the fact that Hayisaer really hasn’t fought anybody. He comes in with just wins over opponents that currently have winning records. This is a big step up in competition for him coming off a decision win on Dana White’s Contender Series last November. That decision was earned over Achilles Estremadura where Hayisaer came in as a major underdog. It is hard for me to see him repeating that kind of performance against a much better fighter.

Garcia is coming off a TKO over Charlie Ontiveros last October, which is his only fight over the last 2+ years. Having fought better competition throughout his pro career and just being a better overall fighter, Garcia should be a bigger favorite than this on the money line as he’s won five of his last six, the lone loss coming via decision to Luis Pena in Feb of 2020. Garcia fought for Bellator MMA, KO’ing Olympic alternate wrestler Shawn Bunch. Garcia, who moved up from 135 lbs, is still considered a “big” lightweight and his size + experience edge should be the difference in this fight. 7* Steve Garcia

10* Under Pirates/Braves (4:10 ET): These teams continue to trend in opposite directions as the Braves have now won nine in a row while the Pirates have dropped four in a row. Atlanta has needed to stay hot as division rival Philadelphia has won eight in a row and the battle for second in the NL East is really starting to heat up. As for the Pirates, I have them rated as one of the worst teams in all of baseball right now with a -83 run differential. It seems quite fortunate that they are ahead of both the Cubs and Reds in the NL Central. Looking ahead, the rest of this series should go Atlanta’s way.

But the money line is obviously too high to play the Braves on Saturday, and I’m a little “gun-shy” about forecasting a win by more than one run. So let’s look at the total. Pittsburgh has scored three runs or less in six consecutive games and didn’t cross the plate until the eighth inning yesterday. So this should be a solid outing from the Braves’ Charlie Morton, who aims to keep the string of solid Braves’ pitching performances alive. Six times in the nine game win streak, Atlanta has allowed two runs or less. Morton has struggled a bit recently (allowing 4 ER in three consecutive starts), but also has much better numbers at home this year. 

Pittsburgh is going with Zach Thompson and he will at least give the team a “fighting chance” on Sunday. That’s because Thompson has allowed 2 ER or less in five of his last six starts. He threw five shutout innings against Arizona on Sunday and got the win as the Pirates eventually prevailed 3-0. But one of Thompson’s big issues is that he doesn’t get much run support as the team has failed to score more than three runs in 8 of his 10 starts overall. The good news though is Atlanta is curiously only averaging 3.5 rpg when facing a right-handed starter. Look for another low-scoring ballgame at Truist Park today. 10* Under Pirates/Braves

9* Run Line Philadelphia (4:05 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Phillies -1.5. This team has absolutely turned it around since dumping Joe Girardi, winning eight in a row and sweeping both the Angels and Brewers. Last night saw them hand the D’backs a 7-5 defeat, a game where I ended up cashing the Over and was feeling very confident about doing so after just two innings, when the Phils grabbed an early 6-0 lead (after two innings). Tonight they should continue their roll and look for another win by 2+ runs as the team’s run differential during the win streak is +41! 

As I’ve written before, the Phillies were drastically underachieving for Girardi and were likely to turn things around eventually, based on their YTD run differential, which has been positive most of the season. Even now, after the eight straight wins, they still are underperforming their Pythagorean win total by four. The good news is that the offense has really turned it around, scoring six or more runs in all but one game during the win streak. They should have success this afternoon vs. Madison Bumgarner, who has allowed 4+ ER in three of his last four outings. He has a 5.18 FIP on the road this season and - as mentioned in yday’s analysis - the D’backs’ bullpen has generally been pretty bad (5.75 ERA, 1.55 WHIP on the road). 

Zack Wheeler starts here for Philly. He has a 1.73 ERA and 0.936 WHIP at home. The fact the team is just 3-3 in his six home starts seems a bit unlucky. In his last seven starts overall, Wheeler is 4-0 (5-2 TSR) with a 1.61 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of those seven starts.  Arizona came into yesterday hitting just .215 for the year and .204 its last seven games. They just don’t match up well here and the Phillies are obviously red hot. 9* Philadelphia Run Line (-1.5)

7* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): You may be surprised to see this selection, based on the respective run differentials of the two teams, not to mention some other things I’ve written in the past about the White Sox. But Chicago did take Friday’s series opener from Texas, 8-3, and has shown an ability to hit lefties this season. Their offensive numbers are simply much better when facing a southpaw, so I’m not overly concerned about them going up against Martin Perez, who has been red hot for the Rangers. Perez may be due to regress and note his team has now dropped seven of nine overall. The Rangers are only 6-12 in day games this season as well.

Starting here for Chicago will be Lucas Giolito. He’s coming off a pair of rough outings - where he allowed 11 runs total (three unearned) - but prior that had given up 3 ER or less in his first even starts of 2022. So I can see Giolito outdueling Perez here as he’s also 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA lifetime vs. the Rangers. Perez is just 3-3 with a 5.36 ERA in seven career starts vs. the White Sox.

The White Sox have won four of six overall and perhaps the most encouraging sign is that they’ve scored 17 runs in the L2 games. On Thursday, they scored four times off Dodgers’ southpaw Tim Anderson, who had previously not allowed a run since 5/17. There is no denying that Texas, despite having scored the same number of runs as they’ve allowed this season, is the colder team in this matchup. The White Sox do have that ugly -52 YTD run differential, so it could be argued they shouldn’t have a better record than the Rangers. But I think we should start to see the RD even out here at home. 7* Chi White Sox

10* Boston (9:00 ET): We know that the Celtics have yet to lose B2B games this postseason. They’re now 7-0 SU/ATS following a loss after downing the Warriors 116-100 Wednesday night in Game 3. That win also puts them up 2-1 in the NBA Finals. If Boston is to win the NBA Championship, I think tonight's game is of critical importance. If they don’t win here, then they’re going to have to win again at Golden State, which is not easy to do. As I said at the outset of the series (I had Boston in Game 1), I feel the Celtics have been the better team all season - posting a better scoring differential and net efficiency rating than the Warriors. I’m laying the points in Game 4.

The fact that Boston is up in the series despite Steph Curry averaging more than 30 PPG is a positive sign, in my view. Curry is now banged up, with an unspecified injury that he suffered near the end of Game 3. He’s vowed to play tonight, but will he be at 100 percent? The last three games have been the best stretch of three-point shooting from Curry in the playoffs and my gut tells me that he was “due” for an off-night anyways. Remember how good Boston is defensively; they were #1 in scoring defense during the regular season and have been even stingier in the playoffs, allowing only 101.6 PPG. In five meetings with the Celtics this season, Golden State has only averaged 102.8 PPG.

The Warriors’ defense isn’t nearly as good on the road as it is at home and we saw them let the Celtics shoot 48.3% from the floor in Game 3. Boston has also made 49 threes in three games, shooting 43% from behind the arc. Golden State has been pretty similar, but was expected to be ahead in that department and, as I said earlier, I believe Curry is set to regress. The Warriors, surprisingly, are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. They’ve lost four of the last five outright. 10* Boston

6* Toronto (7:10 ET): Hard for me to see any result other than a Blue Jays’ victory in Friday’s series opener at Detroit. The Jays come in pretty hot, having won 10 of 13, while the Tigers are a complete mess this season with a 23-33 record. Both clubs had Thursday off. Toronto actually lost its last time out, 8-4 to Kansas City, while Detroit did just win two straight in Pittsburgh. But overall, the numbers clearly point Toronto’s way in this series and especially for tonight’s game. Lay the big price. 

So I realize that Jose Berrios, who will get the start for the Blue Jays tonight, does not have the best overall numbers this season. But he is coming off a quality start vs. Minnesota where he had a season-high 13 strikeouts. In that game, Berrios allowed just two runs and three hits over seven innings of work. It was his second quality start in his last three appearances and now he faces the worst offensive team in the majors, Detroit, who is putting up a paltry 2.8 runs per game. No other team averages fewer than 3.2. The Blue Jays have won 8 of Berrios’ 11 starts this year.

Going back to May 24th, which was the start of Toronto’s 10-3 run, the offense has put up six or more runs in all 10 victories. Tonight they’ll face Edwin  Rodriguez, who has been really bad thus far, posting a 9.45 ERA and 1.65 WHIP through three starts. Last time out, he was annihilated by the Yankees, giving up 10 runs and 11 hits in just 4 ⅓ IP. The Tigers ended up losing that game 13-0. It certainly seemed as if Rodriguez was “tipping” his pitches, which isn’t a good sign. The Blue Jays are 36-16 off a loss. 6* Toronto

10* Over D’backs/Phillies (7:05 ET): This weekend finds the surging Phillies hosting a D’backs team that’s bounced back in recent days. The Phillies have won seven in a row and swept two series since dumping former manager Joe Girardi. They just went to Milwaukee and beat the Brewers three times, which is not easy to do. As for Arizona, they were on a four-game losing streak before beating Cincinnati 7-0 on Wednesday. Then the D’backs won again Thursday afternoon, 5-4, in come from behind fashion. At least eight runs have been scored in 14 of Philly’s last 16 games while the same holds true in 16 of Arizona’s past 24 games. I’m on the Over here.

The Phils have scored six or more runs themselves in all but one of the games during their current win streak. They should continue to find success at the plate here vs. Zac Gallen, who has struggled a bit as of late with a 5.29 ERA and 1.529 his L3 starts. Now most of that is one bad start against the Royals on 5/24, but he has still allowed 10 runs and 19 hits over his last 17 IP. Gallen is off his 1st loss (to Pittsburgh!) and behind him is one of baseball’s worst bullpen. Arizona relievers have combined for a 5.83 ERA and 1.56 WHIP on the road this season.

Kyle Gibson will toe the rubber here for the home team. He too has an ERA north of 5.00 over his L3 starts (5.65) with a WHIP of 1.396. Lasting only 3 ⅓ innings, Gibson gave up five runs his last time out, a game the Phillies were very fortunate to win (came back from 6-2 deficit to win 9-7 in extra innings). Four of Gibson’s last five starts have seen at least nine total runs scored. The last time Arizona came to Philly (last August), the Phillies scored seven runs in all four games. They’ve averaged 7.0 rpg during this win streak and the Over has hit six straight times when the team is a home favorite. 10* Over D’backs/Phillies

8* LA Angels (9:38 ET): Let’s do it. The Angels have lost 14 in a row, an unconscionable free-fall that has left them four games over .500 and cost Joe Maddon his job. It was only two weeks ago that most saw the Halos as a legit contender to the Astros in the AL West and a “shoo-in” to make the postseason. The last three losses have come here at home to the Red Sox, who have won seven in a row. But getting swept at home, in a four-game series, is rare and the Angels have Shohei Ohtani on the mound tonight. I think tonight is the night they snap the losing skid. 

I know that the Angels’ everyday lineup has been besieged with injuries, but all three losses in this series have been by one run, two of them 1-0. All it takes is one big hit and I think that this team’s fortunes can improve drastically. They had the same number of hits as Boston yesterday. Remember that in the final game of the last series (in Philadelphia), the Angels blew a 6-2 lead and lost in extra innings. It’s pretty incredible that they didn’t win any of the last four games. 

Ohtani threw seven shutout innings against the Red Sox back in May, finishing with 11 strikeouts, as the Angels won 8-0 at Fenway Park. Though he’s coming off B2B rough outings, Ohtani had previously given up 2 ER or less in five consecutive starts and I expect him to step up in this spot when his team needs him the most. I know that Nick Pivetta has pitched well of late for Boston, but to me this is all about the Angels being due for a win. I just can’t see them losing again. 8* LA Angels

10* Under Dodgers/White Sox (2:10 ET): This series has seen each team win a game in low-scoring fashion. It was the White Sox in a 4-0 shutout on Tuesday, followed by a 4-1 Dodgers’ win last night. Given the pitching matchup on tap this afternoon, and the scarcity of runs we’ve seen in those L2 games, I think a third straight Under is in the cards here. There have been eight or fewer runs scored in 7 of the Dodgers’ last 11 games. For the White Sox, there have been eight or fewer runs scored in 13 of the last 23 games. 

The Dodgers are only allowing 2.6 runs per game on the road, which is pretty incredible. Don’t look for them to give up very many today with Tyler Anderson starting. Anderson is 6-0 in his eight starts with a 2.64 ERA and 1.028 WHIP. On the road, his numbers are even better (1.52, 0.972) and his L3 starts (all wins) have seen him not give up a single run in 20 innings! He’s allowed only 13 hits and has a 19-1 KW ratio. Set aside a poor outing vs. Philadelphia on 5/12 (where Anderson allowed seven runs) and he’s given up just seven runs in seven starts! 

Dylan Cease will go for Chicago and he is capable of outdueling Anderson. His numbers aren’t quite as good as Anderson’s, due to having two subpar outings, but Cease has allowed 2 ER or less in 8 of his 11 starts. He hasn’t allowed any earned runs in his L2 starts (three unearned) and three of his last four. Should be noted that the Dodgers have topped four runs just twice in their last 11 games and only once in the last eight. 10* Under Dodgers/White Sox

7* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): The Rays probably aren’t catching the Yankees for first place in the AL East (seven games back), but now at 33-23 on the year, they’re clearly establishing themselves as a likely Wild Card team in the American League. Tied with Toronto for the top WC spot, the Rays will look to sweep St. Louis on Thursday. After a thrilling walk-off win on Tuesday, Tampa Bay delivered its best offensive game of the season last night with 18 hits, including seven doubles. They ended up winning 11-3 and joined the Yankees as the only teams with 20 or more home victories this season. I like them this afternoon. 

Thursday’s starter Shane McClanahan has been dominant in 2022. I talked about this prior to his last start when I backed McClanahan and the Rays against the White Sox in a similar price range, here at home. McClanahan ended up delivering six solid innings where he gave up only two runs, had eight strikeouts and didn’t walk anybody. That was on the heels of an outstanding May where he went 4-0 with a 1.15 ERA in five starts (5-0 TSR). Over his L5 starts, McClanahan has allowed just four runs in 32 IP with 42 strikeouts and just three walks. Opponents are hitting just .201 off him for the year. He’s clearly an AL Cy Young candidate, St. Louis has never faced him before, and he’s underpriced (if you can believe it). 

This play is more about jumping on McClanahan than fading St. Louis, but it should be noted the Cardinals have scored only five runs in this series. Starter Miles Mikolas has a 6.75 ERA and 1.557 WHIP his L3 starts after giving up a total of 10 runs in the previous two. Mikolas’ only previous start vs. the Rays came in ‘14 and it did not go well as he allowed 10 runs. No offense to the Cards here, but they’re up against one of the top pitchers in all of MLB and don’t have much of a chance. The Rays have won 21 of 26 interleague home games vs. righties. 7* Tampa Bay

10* Under Warriors/Celtics (9:00 ET): As the series moves to Beantown, let’s stick with the Under (which was a winner for me in Game 2). As I expected, the Celtics could not match their level of three-point shooting from Game 1 (when they went 21 of 41 - 51%) as they dropped off, but only down to 40.5% (as they were 15 of 37). The key was they were only 15 of 43 on two-point attempts, which is only 34.8% (very bad). Outside of Jayson Tatum (who was the only Celtic NOT to shoot well in Game 1), the rest of the team went a combined 22 of 61 from the field and 9 of 28 from three-point range. 

Overall though, three-point shooting has been pretty good (from both teams) in the first two games. Golden State is north of 40 percent while Boston is north of 45 percent. I expect those percentages to drop. We are talking about arguably the two best defensive teams from the regular season. Boston was #1 in points per game allowed (GSW #3). Golden State was #1 in defensive efficiency (Bos #2). Here in the playoffs, the Celtics have been even stingier (101.6 PPG allowed) and off a loss they’ve allowed more than 102 just once in six tries. For the year, the Celtics are allowing just 101.7 PPG off a SU loss.

The teams are now a combined 22-6 Under when playing on exactly two days rest, which (like Game 2) is the situation again here. Consider that even with 30 made threes in Game 2 (both teams were 15 of 37) and a 61 total pts in the 1Q, the teams still ended up combining for only 195 points in Game 2. We may very well see more than that here in Game 3. But still not enough to send this one Over. The Warriors had 33 points off turnovers in the win Sunday and that’s simply not going to happen again. Off a loss, Boston has decreased its number of turnovers every time in the playoffs. 10* Under Warriors/Celtics

10* Philadelphia (8:10 ET): Firing Joe Girardi certainly seems to have ignited a spark in Philadelphia where the Phillies have now won five straight and go for their second straight sweep on Wednesday. After handing the Angels three losses over the weekend, the Phils now look to do the same to the Brewers, in Milwaukee no less, which would be very impressive. The Brew Crew are still in first place in the NL Central (lead down to one-half game over St. Louis), but the Phillies are a hot team right now and you need to continue riding them. As I’ve written before, they were really underachieving under Girardi. 

Though still three games below .500, Philadelphia has had a positive run differential for almost the entire season. Based on their current RD (+19), you’d expect them to have about four more wins and be in second place in the NL East. I very much believe this can be a playoff team in 2022. Starter Aaron Nola (off B2B wins) should continue his turnaround here, which was long overdue as his WHIP on the season is 0.93. His xERA is a full point lower than his actual ERA, a strong indicator that more positive regression is forthcoming. Nola is also 4-1 with a 2.63 ERA in nine previous starts vs. Milwaukee. 

Now the Phils have pulled out a couple of seemingly improbable victories the L2 days, including last night where they homered twice in the ninth off Brewers closer Josh Hader. The problem for the Brewers right now is that they just aren’t scoring. They’ve been shutout twice during their current four-game losing streak and have now dropped six of their last seven overall. This is a team with strong starting pitcher, but Adrian Houser (who goes today) isn’t one of the best as he’s allowed 5+ ER in half of his previous six starts. The Phillies are putting up 5.1 runs per game on the road (2nd most in MLB) and I look for their resurgence to continue here. 10* Philadelphia

7* Run Line Seattle (6:40 ET): First off, please note that this is run line play where I’m backing the Mariners +1.5. These AL West rivals have split the first two games, the Mariners taking the opener 7-4 while the Astros bounced back with a 4-1 win last night. I love the idea of getting Logan Gilbert +1.5 runs in this spot as not only does the Seattle starter sport a 2.35 ERA and 1.031 WHIP after 11 starts this season, but Houston is only averaging 3.7 runs per game at home. The M’s should score enough here and I don’t see them doing any worse than a one-run loss in this series finale. 

So Gilbert has been excellent thus far in 2022, especially on the road where he has a 1.96 ERA and 0.992 WHIP. The team has won five of his seven road starts, including the last one (4-3 over Texas) where Gilbert allowed just two runs (one unearned) and five hits over six innings. Prior to that, at home, he threw seven shutout innings of four-hit ball against these Astros. In seven of 11 starts this season, Gilbert has allowed 1 or 0 ER, which is very impressive. He was the American League Pitcher of the Month for April and has gone six innings or longer in four straight outings. Count on him to hold up “his end of the bargain” here. 

Houston could be without one of its top relievers (Hector Neris), although he’s appealing his four-game suspension. It will be Jose Urquidy starting this game for the home team. Urquidy probably does not deserve his 7-3 team start record, given a 1.51 WHIP. He started opposite Gilbert back on May 28th (when Gilbert threw the seven shutout innings) and got shelled, allowing six runs and 12 hits. Urquidy now has a 5.93 ERA in six career appearances vs. the Mariners. He rarely gets past the fifth inning. Considering this pitching matchup, an extra 1.5 runs “in our back pocket” sounds nice. 7* Run Line Seattle (+1.5)

7* Toronto (2:10 ET): These are two teams clearly trending in opposite directions right now as Toronto is 8-2 in its L10 games while Kansas City is 2-8. The Blue Jays, looking to establish themselves as a playoff team in the American League, have come in and humiliated the last place Royals each of the L2 games, winning 8-0 and 7-0. They go for the sweep this afternoon and given the total lack of resistance they’ve encountered thus far, I can’t foresee any problems for the visitors today. Kansas City has the worst record in all of baseball right now (17-37) and the worst run differential (-96) so they are last in my power ratings. 

Yesterday was the major-leading leading eighth time that the Royals have been shutout this season. This team is averaging just 2.8 runs per game at home this season, second fewest in all of baseball. They’ve lost eight of nine overall and in seven of those games scored three runs or less. This is all “music to the ears” of Toronto starter Yusei Kikuchi, who is looking to bounce back after allowing three home runs (to Minnesota) in his last start. Previously, Kikuchi had allowed 2 ER or less in five consecutive starts (2.36 ERA in May) and he’s actually been more effective this season on the road than at home. 

Toronto’s lineup is firing on all cylinders right now as they’ve scored at least six runs in 11 of the last 13 games. They’ve lost only two times during that stretch (both to Minnesota) and that has them second in the AL East and in the top Wild Card position. I can’t see Brady Singer, the Royals starter for Wednesday, slowing them down. Not after he just allowed seven runs in his last start (also gave up three home runs). As the first two games have shown, this series is a total mismatch and KC is just 17-42 the L59 times it has lost the first two games of a series. Look for the Jays to win their eighth straight on the road. 7* Toronto

9* Pittsburgh (12:35 ET): Perhaps “blame it on the rain,” but the Pirates lost for just the second time in seven games yesterday, falling 5-3 to the Tigers. They just didn’t have enough answers for Detroit starter Tarik Skubal, who limited them to three runs on six hits in a strong seven-inning effort. Meanwhile, the Bucs’ own starter (Jose Quintana) pitched much worse than expected (he had a 1.73 ERA his previous seven starts), giving up four runs in 3 ⅓ innings. As alluded to earlier, the game was delayed for 2+ hours due to rain. I’m expecting a better start (and finish) for the home team today and will call for them to salvage a split of this two-game series. 

While it’s true that Pittsburgh has overachieved (in terms of wins) relative to its YTD run differential, a matchup with the Tigers - at home - should be ideal. Detroit comes in averaging a league-low 2.2 runs per game on the road. They are also dead last in runs scored overall. Before yesterday, the Tigers had dropped three in a row while getting shut out twice. This is a team that came into yday’s game batting a collective .198 on the road. So I expect Mitch Keller to pitch better than usual for the Pirates. In his last start, Keller delivered as a +270 underdog, beating the Dodgers after giving up just two runs in five innings. Given that result, he can certainly beat Detroit. 

The Tigers will counter with Alex Faedo. He’s been better than anticipated, going at least five innings in all six of his starts while never allowing more than two earned runs. But history says the team will falter here as they’ve won B2B road games only one time all season and that was April 14th & 15th at Kansas City. The Pirates are by no means a powerhouse offensively, but they are better than the Tigers at the plate. They’ve also won each of the last five times they’ve been off a loss. 9* Pittsburgh

9* LA Dodgers (8:10 ET): The Dodgers have fallen into a bit of a “rough patch,” losing five of seven overall, but I’ve still got them comfortably rated as the best team in all of baseball right now due to their +113 run differential. I suppose some will want to make a case that the Yankees deserve to be #1 because they’re off to the best start at the one-third mark of the season in 20+ years. But still give me the Dodgers. Something I am even more adamant about is the White Sox having no business being within two games of .500. They have the fourth worst run differential in the American League at -56. 

Only Pittsburgh (+7) has exceeded its Pythagorean win total by a greater margin than have the White Sox (+6) so far. If you’re unfamiliar, a team’s Pythagorean win total is based on its run differential and how many games you’d “expect” them to win based on it. A team that’s being outscored in the manner the White Sox have been “should” have a record of 19-33 according to our old friend Pythagoras. The White Sox are being outscored by two full runs per game at home so far and are greatly outclassed in this matchup with the Dodgers. I’m stunned at the oddsmakers’ pricing on this series opener. 

The Dodgers are outscoring teams by nearly three full runs per game on the road! Now I understand that Mitch White is far from their most dominant pitcher, but Tuesday’s starter should do just fine in this spot considering the White Sox are hitting just .219 at home. White is being opposed by Michael Kopech, who allowed five runs in three innings his last time out and is due for some more regression (his xERA is two points higher than his actual ERA). This is the cheapest price on the Dodgers for any game all year. They’ve gone 5-2 the previous seven times they’ve been below -145 on the ML while Chicago is 6-14 as a ML dog (4th worst) including 1-7 at +130 or less. 9* LA Dodgers

9* Under Tigers/Pirates (7:05 ET): Two of the dregs of baseball meet over the next two days at PNC Park with the Pirates hosting the Tigers. Neither team is in last place, but both are in the bottom four in run differential (overall in MLB) and thus the respective futures look rather bleak on each end. The fact the Bucs are slight underdogs at home (on the ML) is something they should take as an insult, especially after winning five of their last six games. Detroit was shutout twice over the weekend by the Yankees, then lost 5-4 in 10 innings on Sunday. Still I couldn’t possibly back the Bucs. 

If you’re looking for positives, then check out this pitching matchup as Tarik Skubal goes for the Tigers and Jose Quintana goes for the Pirates. I’m anticipating a low-scoring game here with Skubal coming in with a 1.84 ERA and 0.937 WHIP (10 starts) and Quintana having a 2.32 ERA and 1.232 WHIP (10 starts). Skubal has really been lights out of late, allowing zero runs in four of his previous five outings. Last time out, he held Minnesota scoreless for seven innings and gave up just two hits. That makes it six different times this season that Skubal hasn’t allowed a run. Quintana has allowed 2 ER or less in eight straight starts! 

The two starting pitchers aren’t the only reason this total is so low. These are two of the worst hitting teams in all of baseball as well. Detroit is averaging just 2.2 runs per game on the road while hitting .198! They’ve had seven straight games of single-digit hits. Pittsburgh isn’t much better with a .226 average on the year and they have the lowest average of runs scored per game in the entire National League. Even though the Pirates are coming off B2B wins, they still only managed five runs total in the two games. The Under is 12-5-3 in their last 20 games overall. 9* Under Tigers/Pirates

10* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET): While I don’t think that the Cubs’ ceiling in 2022 is particularly high, they should be able to move past Pittsburgh into third place in the NL Central. As for Baltimore, they’re destined for last place (again) in the AL East. It was a tough loss Sunday night for the Cubbies as they blew a one-run lead in the ninth and fell 5-3 to the Cardinals in extra innings. I faded them twice in that series, both times successfully, but they remain 4-3 over the L7 games and have been a better team away from the Friendly Confines this season. Tonight’s starting pitching matchup works in their favor, rather drastically. 

It will be Keegan Thompson on the mound for Chicago on Tuesday. Working both out of the bullpen and as the team’s sixth starter, Thompson is 6-0 in 2022 with a 1.99 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He has picked up the win in each of his last four appearances, the last one coming in the series with St. Louis. Baltimore has never faced Thompson before, already a disadvantage, and it’s not like the Orioles are hitting the ball well of late either. Over the L3 games, they’ve managed only 13 hits and gone 0 for 5 with runners in scoring position. They don’t hit righties particularly well (.223 in games vs. righty starters) and they are bottom five overall (all of MLB) in runs scored. 

As for the Cubs, they have been hitting right-handed pitching much better than the O’s have, and tonight they’ll be facing Kyle Bradish, who has really struggled as of late. Bradish has a 6.82 ERA and 1.545 WHIP on the season (somehow the team has won four of his seven starts) and those numbers jump to 10.03 and 1.885 over his past three outings. He’s allowed at least one home run in every start so far. Baltimore has just three wins over its last nine games. The Cubs are 31-15 L46 interleague road games vs. teams that have losing records. 10* Chi Cubs

10* Over Blue Jays/Royals (8:10 ET): Toronto has lost only twice over its last 11 games. Both setbacks came over the weekend, at home, against Minnesota. But one streak still alive is eight consecutive games going Over the total. The Jays’ offense has certainly come alive, scoring six or more runs in all but one of those eight contests. But the Twins were able to score eight runs yesterday and nine on Friday. There have been at least 10 total runs scored in each of the Jays’ L8 games and I think the streak continues here as they head to Kansas City to face the last place Royals. Take the Over. 

Things are NOT going well in KC as I’ve got this team rated dead last in the power ratings. They have the fewest wins (17) and worst run differential (-81) in all of baseball. After a rare win on Saturday (6-0 over Houston), the Royals immediately reverted back to their losing ways, falling 7-4 to the Astros yesterday. That marked the 10th time in 13 games that KC pitching allowed seven or more runs. So this seems to be an ideal matchup for a Toronto lineup that is swinging the bats well. The Royals have allowed the most runs in the American League by a fairly wide margin.

David Lynch is Monday’s starter for the home side.He’s off an outing where he allowed six runs in Cleveland and has a 8.31 ERA/2.154 WHIP his L3 starts. Tough to see him doing well in this spot and the Royals’ bullpen also happens to be very lousy. Toronto will counter with Ross Stripling, who figures to serve as more of an “opener” as he’s only getting the nod here due to the injury to Hyun-Jin Ryu. Stripling has made just five starts this year and lasted four innings in four of them. He has a 7.87 ERA on the road (1.50 WHIP) and let it be known the Royals should have scored more runs on Sunday, but left the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth. 10* Over Blue Jays/Royals

9* Arizona (6:40 ET): After a horrific 3-22 start to the season, the Reds stabilized somewhat. But they are still just 18-35 overall and in last place in the NL Central. I’m a little surprised by the “respect” the market keeps showing them after they dropped three of four (here at home) to the last place Nationals over the weekend. Still, this is going to be the fifth consecutive game they’ve been favored on the money line. Now Arizona is coming off a losing series (1-2) in Pittsburgh and was shutout on Sunday. But I’ve got the D’backs rated as the better team here and in light of the pitching matchup, think they should be favored.

Madison Bumgarner will be going for the D’backs tonight. The veteran southpaw has had a solid start to the season, posting a 3.33 ERA and 1.196 WHIP through 11 starts. Last time out, he went six innings and allowed only two runs. But he was a hard luck loser as the team eventually went down 6-0 to Atlanta. That was his third straight start going six-plus innings, a positive sign. Now the Reds do come into this game averaging a league-leading 6.0 rpg here at home. But that’s a number due to regress and Cincy is just 4-11 its previous 15 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Reds are also 3-9 L12 as a favorite. 

The key for Arizona will be the offense getting on track after it managed only five singles on Sunday. They’ve scored just one run the L2 games. But the good news is the D’backs are 3-0 off their previous three shutout losses and will be facing Hunter Greene, who has a 6.19 ERA and 1.521 WHIP for Cincinnati. The Reds have lost 8 of Greene’s 10 starts thus far and only two times has he gone longer than 5 ⅓ innings. That means the bad bullpen will be in play here, offering Arizona more opportunities to score runs. The Reds are allowing 5.8 rpg at home, tied for most in all of MLB. 9* Arizona

10* Under Celtics/Warriors (8:05 ET): Game 1 saw a dramatic turn of events in the fourth quarter where Boston outscored Golden State 40-16, turning a 12-point deficit into a 12-point win. The Celtics finished the game north of 50% from the field and would have been even better if not for an awful display from Jayson Tatum (who was 3 for 17). The team also shot a blistering 51.2% from three-point range (21 of 41), something I don’t think we’ll see again, at least not in Game 2. 

It was the Warriors that got off to the hot START in Game 1, specifically Steph Curry, who was 6 for 8 from three-point range in the first quarter alone! Again, don’t think we’ll see a repeat of that. Curry finished the game with 34 points, above his projection, but considering he had 21 points after 1Q, I think it’s fair to say the Celtics’ defense was able to slow him down. I’d also be a bit surprised if the Warriors hit 19 threes again, as a team, like they did in Game 1. I think you can all tell where I’m going with this pick. 

These were the two top teams in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Boston also led in scoring defense. The Celtics have given up fewer points per game in the playoffs (101.4) while the Warriors typically do a much better job defending at home (103.1 PPG allowed) vs. on the road (109.0). Even if Tatum improves (he likely will), the Celtics won’t be getting a combined 47 points again from Al Horford and Derrick White. Boston is 11-3 Under this season playing on exactly two days rest while Golden State is 9-3 Under in the same situation. 10* Under Celtics/Warriors

8* St. Louis (7:08 ET): The Cardinals were able to score four runs in the 10th last night, salvaging a doubleheader with the Cubs and giving them an opportunity to win this five-game series Sunday night. While it’s been a tough series with the Cubs, the Cards are a better team than most realize right now. They own the National League’s third best run differential (+52), which is significantly better than division leading Milwaukee (+28), whom the Cards currently trail by 1.5 games in the Central. With Adam Wainwright on the bump tonight, I look for the road team to pick up the series win.

The Cubs are wedged in between the Pirates and Reds. That’s a sentence no team wants to read about itself. They’ve really underperformed here at Wrigley this season, going 11-19. That’s actually nothing new as, incredibly, the Cubs’ record in their L62 home games is 19-43! They are 6-25 their L31 games hosting a team that has a winning record!  They’ve been competitive this week against the two top teams in the NL Central, but take note of St. Louis’ 4-1 record this year as a road favorite of -125 to -175 (21-7 in that role the L3 seasons) and that the pitching matchup for Sunday night is heavily skewed in the Cards’ favor.

Wainwright has a 1.89 ERA and 1.105 WHIP his L3 starts and just threw seven shutout innings of two-hit ball against San Diego his last time out (with 10 strikeouts!). That made it six straight starts allowing 3 ER or less.  Wainwright has typically done very well against the Cubs in his long career, including LY when he allowed just one run in 15 IP. Justin Steele goes for the Cubs here and he has a 7.50 ERA/1.583 WHIP his L3 starts. He’s been very inefficient his L2 starts (155 pitches in just seven innings) and multiple walks in five consecutive outings is yet another bad sign. The Cardinals average 5.0 rpg on the road. 8* St. Louis

10* Philadelphia (1:35 ET): I’ll call for the Phillies (who I won with yesterday) to finish off the sweep here as these are two teams headed in opposite directions. The Phils greatly underachieved for former manager Joe Girardi as their record at the time of his dismissal was just 22-29, despite a positive run differential. They responded to Girardi’s firing by dominating the Angels in the first two games, winning 10-0 and 7-2. Last night was “all over but the shouting” after the first inning when Philly jumped out to a 5-0 lead. That was the Angels 10th straight loss as they are in major trouble right now. 

As I wrote yesterday, the Phillies were long overdue for a turnaround. It starts with what I mentioned before - they have a run differential (+16) of a team that should have a winning record. Having 10 one-run losses this year has really hurt. But things are now trending up, which you can’t say for the Angels, who are only three losses away from matching the longest streak in franchise history. It hasn’t helped that they’ve faced the Yankees and Blue Jays before this, but they’ve also only scored five runs total in the L5 games. That’s not enough to beat anybody. They clearly miss Anthony Rendon and Taylor Ward. Meanwhile, Mike Trout is a career-worst 0 for 23 slump. 

That’s gotta be music to the ears of Kyle Gibson, the Phillies’ starter for Sunday. Gibson has a 2.37 ERA and 0.824 WHIP at home and is due for some better results after the team dropped each of his L3 starts. Gibson has allowed 2 ER or less in six of his last seven outings. Visiting teams are only hitting .216 at Citizens Bank Park this season! The Angels counter with Patrick Sandoval, a lefty, While the Phils’ lineup does often struggle vs. southpaws, the fact they’ve scored 23 runs the L3 days gives me enough confidence. Plus, Sandoval allowed six runs in his last start (in only three innings) and the Angels’ bullpen has been bad over the last month (a big reason why they’ve allowed 6+ runs in 8 of the L10 games).  10* Philadelphia

6* Philadelphia (7:15 ET): Well, the “new manager bounce” (soccer term) certainly applied to the Phillies last night as they handed the Angels their ninth straight loss and did so in 10-0 fashion. Needless to say, the first game post-Joe Girardi couldn’t have gone any better in the City of Brotherly Love. Now as I’ve written before, the Phils had been drastically underachieving under Girardi. Despite their losing record, they’d carried a positive YTD run differential (basically the whole season), so interim skipper Rob Thomson is walking into a good situation here as the team was already due for better results.

As for the Angels, things couldn’t be much worse right now. They’ve scored a total of three runs in the past four games. Mike Trout is hitless in the last five games and Taylor Ward, who has actually been the club’s top hitter, left yday’s loss with an injury. I just can’t see the Halos breaking through against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler tonight as Wheeler not only comes in with a 1.37 ERA and 0.966 WHIP his L3 starts overall, but he has a 1.48 ERA and 0.857 WHIP here at home. Wheeler has gone six starts in a row w/o allowing more than 3 ER and that’s while facing the likes of the Mets, Braves, Padres and Dodgers. He’s gone six-plus innings in five of those six starts. Wheeler’s 4-5 team start record is due to improve. 

The Phillies have the third most one-run losses (10) in all of MLB, which is what ultimately cost Girardi his job. The team is far better than its record and I project them to be back above .500 by the All-Star Break. Keep in mind their last three losses all came in extra innings. I look for them to hit Michael Lorenzen, today’s starter for the Angels, who will be making his ninth trip to the mound in 2022. It’s not that Lorenzen has been all that bad, I just can’t see him outdueling Wheeler in this spot. 6* Philadelphia

7* Ode Osbourne (4:35 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s flyweight division.(125 lbs). Osbourne is 10-4 in his career (2-2 in UFC) while Zarrukh Adashev is just 4-3, 1-2. Look for Osbourne to get his hand raised in this one.

Osbourne has alternated wins and losses since coming to the UFC. “The Jamaican Sensation” could easily be on a three-fight win streak, however. He was in control at the start against Manel Kape last August, only to get caught with a flying knee. Osbourne rebounded in November with a decision victory over C.J. Vergara. That was the first time in the UFC that an Osbourne fight didn’t end in Round 1. I like what I saw in that last fight as Osbourne was able to set a distance and pick a slower fighter apart. It should be much the same here as Adashev doesn’t exactly throw a ton of volume.

Adashev does have some power, but he’s at a reach disadvantage in this fight. Plus Osbourne is the superior wrestler. Adashev did pick up a win, his first in the UFC, in his last fight. But that was 10 months ago. It was by decision over Ryan Benoit. Prior to that, Adashev was 0-2 in the UFC, once losing by knockout in just 32 seconds. Even in the win against Benoit, Adashev clearly tired down the stretch. Whether this goes this distance or not, it will be Osbourne claiming victory. 7* Ode Osbourne

8* Over Twins/Blue Jays (3:07 ET): Minnesota came in and pulled off a surprising win last night, 9-3 as +210 underdogs. That ended Toronto’s eight-game win streak (which had been a season-high) and it was also the first time in six games where the Jays failed to score at least six runs. Out for revenge today, you’ve got to figure the home team will swing the bats well, but it turns out that I don’t have faith in EITHER starting pitcher Saturday afternoon. This promises to be another slugfest. Take the Over. 

The Twins, even though they dropped four of five in Detroit earlier this week, continue to lead the AL Central with a 31-23 record. They have some key pieces out of the lineup, but you wouldn’t have known watching yesterday as they broke out for nine runs and 12 hits. They roughed up Yusei Kikuchi and should also find success against Toronto’s starter for Saturday, Jose Berrios, who has a 5.62 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Berrios, who spent six seasons with Minnesota, has allowed five or more runs in three of his last five starts. Last time out, he made it only 2 ⅓ innings and gave up six runs. 

Toronto is on a six-game Over streak coming into today and, save for yesterday, you can credit their offense for that. They’ve averaged 6.9 runs per game over the last week. Dylan Bundy will start for the Twins and he figures to struggle. Bundy has an 0-5 TSR his L3 starts and has been particularly poor on the road, turning in a 7.50 ERA and 1.667 WHIP. He’s allowed a homer in four of his last five outings. Neither bullpen is all that good in this matchup, by the way. 8* Over Twins/Blue Jays

6* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): The Rays were able to battle back and earn themselves a four-game split of the previous series with the Rangers while the White Sox were just swept up in Toronto. I faded the Pale Hose in two of the three games, including yesterday’s 8-3 defeat. It’s pretty telling how the market has priced them against the likes of the Blue Jays and Rays. Note that in the previous two seasons, Chicago was a road underdog of +175 to +250 only ONE time. Today marks the third time in the last four days! 

What the market knows is that Chicago has no business hovering around .500. I’ve said this before myself, noting their woeful run differential (now -55). Not only is that worse than the last place teams in both the East (Orioles) and West (A’s) divisions, but it’s worse than Detroit. The only AL team w/ a worse RD right now is Kansas City, who has the worst record in all of baseball. The White Sox are simply a bad team and tonight’s matchup vs. Shane McClanahan isn’t about to change things. 

McClanahan has been one of the best pitchers in the game this season. He comes in with a 2.01 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in his 10 starts. Lately, he’s been especially dominant, turning in 0.95 ERA and 0.895 WHIP his L3 starts, all wins. McClanahan has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start here in 2022 and that probably won’t change tonight, facing a White Sox lineup which averages only 3.6 rpg. Vincent Velasquez goes for the White Sox and he’s got a 5.79 ERA and 1.50 WHIP this year. The Rays are clearly the better team in this matchup and they happen to have a significant pitching advantage tonight. 6* Tampa Bay

10* Over Tigers/Yankees (7:05 ET): The Yankees appear to be in peak form again, winning seven of their last nine including a three-game sweep of the Angels to start the week. In that sweep, the Yanks’ pitching staff allowed just one run each game and only twice have they allowed more than three runs in a game during their 7-2 run. The team has to feel good about the trend continuing here as they’ll send Gerrit Cole out to face a Tigers’ lineup that is producing only 2.3 runs per game on the road this season. But with the home team sure to do most of the “heavy lifting,” I’m looking for a “surprise” Over in tonight’s series opener. 

The Yankees come into tonight averaging 4.6 runs per game, both at home and overall. They’ve scored the eighth most runs in all of MLB and figure to add plenty more to the total tonight facing Elvin Rodriguez, who will be making just his third career start (and fourth appearance) for the Tigers. In his first start, Rodriguez gave up a grand slam. His second outing, Sunday against the Guardians, went a lot smoother. But this is a far more talented lineup he’s facing today. Matt Carpenter has hit three home runs in the last week while Gleyber Torres homered again yesterday, giving him more this season than he had in all of 2021! 

If there’s ANY reason for Detroit to be optimistic here, it’s because of the fact NY played a doubleheader yesterday. That means a tired Yankees’ bullpen could be prone to giving up a few more runs than usual. Cole had his worst start of the season against the Tigers, lasting only 1 ⅔ innings on a cold night. He’s coming off B2B games with double digit strikeouts, but also allowed five runs in one of them. The Tigers, who surprisingly took four of five from Minnesota, are due for SOME offensive increase moving forward. The Over has hit in each of the Yankees last seven series openers. 10* Over Tigers/Yankees

9* St. Louis (2:20 ET): The Cardinals will be looking to avenge a 7-5 defeat to the Cubs last night where they trailed most of the way. St. Louis came into this series fresh off sweeping the Padres where they allowed only seven runs total in three games. They are still 29-22 overall, just three games off the pace in the NL Central and have the division’s best run differential. That’s well clear of the Cubs, who are actually behind the Pirates as well. Chicago has yet to win on Friday this season (0-5) and I believe that trend continues today.

Miles Mikolas will get the baseball for the Redbirds today. He was roughed up in his last start (allowed six runs to Milwaukee), but before that had been very good. In fact, Mikolas hadn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his first nine starts! He checks in with a 2.67 ERA and 1.055 WHIP. His team start record is 6-4 and that would be even better with the proper run support. He’s received two or fewer runs of support in half of his starts. He shouldn’t need much support today given a 1.62 career ERA (11 starts) vs. the Cubs. The bottom line is I’m expecting another quality start from Mikolas.

Marcus Stroman will start for the Cubs here. He ended what had already been a strong May with seven shutout innings against the White Sox last week. But I still remember his poor April and Stroman does have a 6.28 ERA here at Wrigley. The Cubs are a shockingly poor 18-41 their L59 home games, including 5-23 the L28 times they’ve hosted a team with a winning record. 9* St. Louis

10* Boston (9:05 ET): Looking at the respective seasons, I think the Celtics are better than the Warriors. The numbers bear this out, not just for the playoffs, but the regular season as well. In the regular season, Boston had the better net efficiency rating (+8.1 vs. +6.6) while in the playoffs, that advantage is now +6.6 to +5.2. Taking that into careful consideration and the fact that the public seems OVERWHELMINGLY in favor of the Warriors here, I’ll be taking the points in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. 

These were the top two teams in defensive efficiency during the regular season and Boston was #1 in scoring defense. In the playoffs, giving up just 101 PPG, the Celtics have moved well past the Warriors in terms of defensive efficiency. I also think that Boston had the far tougher path to get here, ousting Brooklyn, Milwaukee and Phoenix while GS only had to get past Denver, Memphis and Dallas. The fact that Boston is coming off a seven-game series is mitigated by the fact they haven’t had to play since Sunday, giving them three days off. 

The Celtics have been true “road warriors” this season, going 32-16 ATS away from home. They are 6-1 ATS as road underdogs in these playoffs. In the two regular season matchups, these teams each won on the other’s floor. I know that the Warriors have the flashier offense, more star power and the home court advantage. But I believe that the Celtics are the better team here and the public isn’t really clued into it. Boston is actually 7-3 straight up the previous 10 meetings with Golden State and I look for them to do the job defensively on Steph Curry in Game 1. 10* Boston

10* Over Nationals/Reds (6:40 ET): Things have stabilized in Cincinnati following a disastrous 3-22 start to the season. The team is actually 12-10 over its L22 games and the offense has been a real bright spot, now averaging an impressive 5.9 runs per game at home this year. Only Colorado, which has the obvious benefit of Coors Field, scores more at home. But unfortunately for the Reds, their pitching still stinks. You’re talking about a staff that is allowing 5.7 rpg at home. Add it all up and Reds’ home games are now averaging an absurd 11.6 rpg! That makes this total (vs. a Washington team that also has bad pitching) too low. 

So the Nationals’ staff is one of two in all of baseball that gives up more runs per game than the Reds. (Colorado gives up the most). The team had gone Over in four straight games before yday’s 5-0 loss to the Mets, which was actually the second game in a row the Nats’ offense got blanked. Starting today will be Joan Adon, who has a 6.08 ERA and 1.669 WHIP in 10 starts, nine of which have seen Washington lose. Adon is off probably his best start (at home vs. Colorado), but can’t be trusted here against a Reds lineup that typically puts up a ton of runs at home and is batting a collective .280 its L7 games overall. Plus, the Washington bullpen stinks. 

Having been shutout in B2B games, there’s not much expectation for the Nationals’ offense today, but considering how many runs visiting teams have scored so far this season at Great American Ballpark, I look for the Nats to put more than a few on the board. The unproven Graham Ashcraft will get the starting nod here for the Reds. Ashcraft only has two starts under his belt and isn’t a big strikeout guy. Washington is 6th in the NL in OBP, respectable, and the Over is 14-3-2 in the Reds’ last 18 home games when they face a right-handed starter. 10* Over Nationals/Reds

7* Toronto (7:07 ET): At the outset of this series, I said to look for a red hot Blue Jays team to continue winning at the White Sox expense. The only thing I’d change is that I should have taken them yesterday when they were available at a much cheaper price than either today or the first game. Toronto won the opener 6-5 and then 7-3 yesterday, making it seven wins in a row for them. Expect the domination to continue Thursday behind Alek Manoah, who is 8-0 with a 1.99 ERA in 13 career starts here at home. 

As I’ve also said previously, the White Sox have no business hovering around the .500 mark. They’ve been outscored by 50 runs this season. That’s worse than both the last place teams in the East (Orioles) and West (A’s). It’s worse than the 20-30 Tigers. In fact, the only team in the American League with a worse run differential than the White Sox is Kansas City and the Royals have the worst record in all of baseball! Averaging only 3.7 rpg and with a 7-11 record against teams that are .500 or better, the White Sox are simply not a very good baseball team in 2022.

Manoah is very good for Toronto, checking in with a 1.77 ERA and 0.911 WHIP this season. So it’s not just here at home where he dominates. Manoah has yet to allow more than 2 ER in any start. He’ll be opposed here by Johnny Cueto, who I faded last Saturday with my 10* Game of the Month play on the Cubs. Cueto allowed five runs in that start and when you consider the Chicago bullpen has the third highest ERA in baseball the L2 weeks, Toronto (averaging 6.3 rpg the last week) figures to score plenty of runs tonight. 7* Toronto

10* Philadelphia (6:05 ET): The Phillies have lost five in a row and are proof that “If it wasn’t for bad luck, they’d have no luck at all.” This team is much better than its won-loss record (eight games below .500) and emblematic of that is today’s starter Aaron Nola, who carries a 3.56 ERA and 0.94 WHIP, but has a team start record of just 2-8. I did take Nola his last time out, which resulted in a win as he went 8+ innings with 10 strikeouts and allowed just one run. I obviously think Nola and the Phils are due for better results moving forward and to convince you further, I’m 4 for 4 the L4 times playing on or against them. It’s “on” this time.

San Francisco was the most profitable team to bet on last season, making an insane 45.8 units as they finished and had the most wins of anybody in the regular season (107). Of course, they eventually bowed out to the Dodgers in the postseason. Coming into 2022, I figured there was no way the Giants wouldn’t regress, at least in terms of both wins and profitability. Their level of profitability was unmatched over the L20 seasons! Sure enough, they’ve been a slight money LOSER to this point in the season, even after beating the Phillies each of the L2 days. 

Carlos Rodon will start tonight for the Giants. He arrives in poor form with an 0-3 record in his L3 starts with a 7.80 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. Rodon failed to beat Cincinnati his last time out. I just can’t see him matching up well with Nola, who has gone six-plus innings and allowed 3 ER or fewer in five of his last starts. The Phillies’ last three losses have also ALL come in extra innings, so the “worm is due to turn” here, especially after yesterday where they went 3 for 17 with RISP and left 14 runners on base. The offensive numbers are set to increase here at home and skipper Joe Girardi (on the “hot seat”) definitely needs a win today. The Phillies are 10-3 the L13 times they’ve dropped the first two games of a series. 10* Philadelphia

analysis soon

9* Under Royals/Guardians (1:10 ET): Kansas City’s pitching staff has now given up seven or more runs in eight of the last ten games, including both in the series. With numbers like that, it’s really no surprise that KC comes into Wednesday with the fewest number of wins (16) in all of MLB. I’ve got the Pirates rated lower, but that’s it. This afternoon, the Royals hope to avoid getting swept in Cleveland. I’m in no way confident that they will, but the better bet is that this AL Central matchup will be low-scoring. Despite the Royals’ recent pitching woes, I’m on the Under. 

The O/U line was higher for Monday’s series opener, so that game (7-3 Guardians’ win) went Under. But after yesterday’s 8-3 result, the Royals are now 10-2 Over their L12 games. Again, most of that has to do with the pitching, which has allowed more runs that anyone in the American League. The bullpen is coming off a horrible month, but I’m expecting a strong start here from Brad Keller, who has a 3.95 ERA and 1.207 WHIP in nine starts this year. He was shelled his last time out, but earlier in the season, Keller had his best start of ‘22 when he tossed six shutout innings vs. Cleveland (allowed just two hits).

The Guardians counter with Konnor Pilkington, who hasn’t been exactly “dominant” in either of his two previous starts. Yet to make it through four innings, Pilkington will likely rely on his bullpen, which has been outstanding thus far. Another positive is that Pilkington is a lefty and KC is scoring only 3.7 runs per game when facing a southpaw starter. The Royals are also currently dealing with a lot of injuries to their lineup. Considering that, and the fact the KC pitching HAS to improve (can’t get any worse!), I’m looking for this to be a relatively low-scoring game. Keller has 1.71 ERA in eight career starts vs. Cleveland and a 1.88 ERA here at Progressive Field. 9* Under Royals/Guardians 

8* Run Line LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): The Dodgers suffered one of the most shocking losses of this MLB season last night as they fell 6-5 (at home!) to the Pirates. They were -330 on the money line on Monday, so hopefully you didn’t bet them. It’s a similar deal today and obviously at that price, there’s little value. But I am willing to lay the -1.5 on the run line as this is still a matchup of what I consider the best team in baseball against the worst team in baseball. Pittsburgh’s -83 run differential is baseball’s worst right now. The Dodgers are +118 (easily #1). To be clear, this play is on the RL where I am backing LA -1.5. 

 Mitch Keller is winless in 2022 for the Bucs at 0-5 his first seven starts. His team start record is 1-6 to go along with a 6.61 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. His L2 starts, both of which were vs. the lowly Reds, saw Keller allow 5 ER each time out. The Dodgers are an offensive juggernaut, averaging 5.8 runs per game at home where they are winning by an average of 1.9 rpg. The Dodgers are also 9-5 off a loss. \

It is downright shocking to me to see that Pittsburgh is 3-1 vs. the Dodgers this season. But off a win, the Pirates are 4-13 this season and 0-6 on Tuesdays. They will face Julio Urias, who has very good numbers on the year (2.49 ERA, 1.064 WHIP) after allowing two runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. Another Pirates’ win here is simply out of the question and with that mindset, why not lay the -1.5? Look for the home team to win by AT LEAST two runs here. 8* Run Line LA Dodgers (-1.5)

7* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The Nats’ Pat Corbin FINALLY broke into the win column his last start by pitching six-plus strong innings and giving up only three runs to the Colorado Rockies. Previously, Corbin had been 0-7 in 10 starts (0-9 team start record). It’s difficult for me to see how Corbin would win again today as he faces the first place Mets, who have won four straight including 13-5 in yday’s series opener. That was the fourth time in seven games that NY scored double digit runs. They are averaging 8.9 rpg during that stretch. 

As you might expect from a matchup of the first and last place teams from a division, the former holds a 6-2 edge in head to head matchups this season. The Mets are 33-17 overall and have been living a bit of a “charmed life” this season. They’ve won six straight at home where they are 17-8 on the year. Second in the NL in team batting average (.264), again, they should have no problems roughing up Corbin, who is 5-8 with a 4.16 ERA in 22 previous starts vs. NY. Already, the team has lost twice this year with Corbin on the mound against them. 

Starting for NY will be Trevor Williams. While far from the team’s most dominant starter, he’s not allowed a run in three of his previous four appearances. Some of that has come as a reliever, but nevertheless I like his chances today against a Nationals team that is only 11-21 vs. righties this season. Washington is already a virtual lock to finish last in the NL East this season as they’ve been outscored by 61 runs. That’s worse than the Reds. Only KC and Pittsburgh have been worse in that regard. 7* NY Mets

7* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Blue Jays have won five straight and I look for them to continue winning this week when the White Sox come to town. As previously stated here, Chicago has no business whatsoever hovering around .500 as they own a -45 run differential. That gap between expected and actual wins was a big reason why I chose to fade them Saturday with my 10* Game of the Month on the Cubs, who came in at +135 in a 5-1 win. Toronto is obviously a much better team than the Cubs, so no shock how I’m playing this one. 

The Blue Jays “should have” been a playoff team a year ago (+183 run differential), but were not, despite 91 wins. Most projected them to be in the field this year, or even to win the AL East. Right now, they’re third in the division, 5.5 games back of the Yankees. So they need to keep winning. Shouldn’t be a problem tonight with Kevin Gausman on the mound as he’s got a 6-3 team start record to go along with a 2.25 ERA and 1.036 WHIP. The White Sox are only putting up 3.6 runs per game this season. 

Lucas Giolito will start opposite Gausman here. Giolito has pretty good numbers himself and has actually yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season. But you can look for Toronto’s numbers with runners in scoring position to improve moving forward. Also, the White Sox will be without Tim Anderson on Tuesday after he sprained his wrist Sunday. Chicago is just 2-5 after an off-day while the Blue Jays are coming off an impressive four-game sweep of the Angels out in LA. 7* Toronto

10* Over Giants/Phillies (4:10 ET): The Phillies continue to underperform as they were swept over the weekend by the Mets, leaving them six games below .500 despite still having a (slightly) positive run differential. The Phils have now dropped 8 of 11 overall and things get no easier this week with a visit from the Giants. I’ve said before that there is just no way the Giants will be as profitable as they were last year to bet on, and sure enough they’re down 3.3 units despite their winning overall record (25-21). The way I see this one going is lots of runs, from both clubs. Take the Over. 

The Giants are one of only three teams to be averaging 5.0 runs per game (Dodgers & Mets are the others). I like their chances today against Kyle Gibson, who has a 6.28 ERA and 1.743 WHIP his L3 starts. Gibson has been better since being roughed up for six runs by the Dodgers on 5/13, but he’s made it through six full innings just once in his last six starts. As we saw last night, the Phillies’ bullpen has been a problem this season, a reason six of their last seven games have gone Over the total. Only one of those games saw fewer than nine total runs scored. All three games vs. the Mets went Over. 

Phillies’ home games have been atypically low scoring thus far (7.4 rpg), but that should start to change. The Giants’ last seven games have been even higher scoring than the Phillies. There’s been an average of 12.1 rpg scored in SF contests over the last week and three times their pitching staff has given up 10+ runs during that stretch. Logan Webb is the starter Monday. Like Gibson, Webb struggles a bit more when facing lefties. The Over has hit in six of the Giants’ last seven series openers and seven straight vs. the NL East. It’s 13-5 their L18 games overall. 10* Over Giants/Phillies

7* Minnesota (1:10 ET): Though they’ve been quite the pleasant surprise so far, the Twins were only able to manage a four-game split with the lowly Royals over the weekend. Look for them to take their frustrations out on another AL Central team Monday, the Tigers, whom Minnesota has had its way with thus far in 2022. The Twins are 5-1 so far vs. the Tigers and just took two of three from them last week. Minny is also 5-0 in Monday games this season. Detroit has been miserable offensively (just 2.7 runs per game) and doesn’t have the kind of starter on the mound today (Brieske) that can bail them out. 

Despite splitting with the Royals, the Twins have won 10 of 14 and eight of those victories have come by at least two runs. They are now 10 games over .500 for the year and enjoy a five-game division lead. Facing Beau Brieske, this Twins lineup should put up some runs. Brieske is 0-4 on the year with a 5.04 ERA and 1.385 WHIP. Recently, the numbers have gotten even worse, in large part due to a terrible start vs. TB where he was charged with six runs. When he faced the Twins last week, Brieske needed 90 pitches just to get through four innings. The Tigers lost 2-0. It’s believed that Brieske, a rookie, may be “tipping” his pitches, which is certainly not a good sign. 

Starting Monday for Minnesota will be Dylan Bundy. His recent numbers aren’t that great either as he was shelled at Baltimore earlier in the month. Bundy was 3-0 to start the year, but the Twins have since lost all four of his starts. He did not factor into the decision against Detroit last week, giving up just one run in 5 ⅔ IP. I think Bundy has pitched better than the numbers indicate as he’s allowed 1 ER or less in five of seven starts. As mentioned earlier, the Tigers have been dreadful at the plate this year. In fact, they rank dead last in MLB in runs per game (by a lot). 7* Minnesota

10* Under Celtics/Heat (8:30 ET): Historically, Game 7’s tend to go Under. Since 2003, the Under has hit in nearly 65% of all Game 7s. Many were not expecting the Eastern Conference Finals to reach a Game 7. Not after the Celtics bludgeoned the Heat in Games 4 and 5 (both of those stayed Under), then were heading back home for Game 6. But Miami had other ideas, pulling the upset Friday, 111-103 as an eight-point underdog. This will be, predictably, the lowest O/U for any game of the series. I’m still going Under. 

Boston led the league in scoring defense during the regular season, giving up just 104.1 points per game. They’ve bested that average here in the postseason, allowing only 101.3, including just 96.8 in the last five games. They held Miami to just 82 and 80 points in Games 4 and 5 with the Heat starters combining to score a paltry 60 points (total!) in those two games. There was no way the Heat weren’t going to improve their shooting in Game 6 and Jimmy Butler was a man on a mission, scoring 47 points himself. I don’t see that happening again though. Nor do I see a combined 56 free throws being attempted in Game 7. That’s how many were attempted in Game 6 with 52 being made. Refs tend to “swallow their whistles” in Game 7s. 

Miami is also a defensive force, giving up only 100.4 PPG in the playoffs. Boston has hit its season average (111 PPG) only once in this series. This series has been higher-scoring than anticipated, but on Sunday night we’re going to get a real slugfest. Expect fewer possessions, more defensive intensity and less fouls called. 10* Under Celtics/Heat

10* Nottingham Forest (11:30 AM ET): It’s come down to this, one final “winner take all” match to decide the third team from the EFL Championship to get promoted to the Premier League for next season. We already Fulham and AFC Bournemouth are heading back to the top flight. Either Nottingham Forest or Huddersfield Town will join them, replacing Burnley, who was condemned to relegation last weekend. (Watford and Norwich City are the other two EPL sides that were relegated). I’m calling for Nottingham Forest to win here inside of 90 minutes + stoppage time. 

Though Huddersfield finished third and Nottingham fourth (two points difference), it was the latter that had a far better goal differential this campaign. Nottingham has a +33 YTD GD, which was on par with Bournemouth (+35). Huddersfield was only +17. The clubs have met three times over the course of the season with Nottingham winning twice, including 2-1 in the FA Cup back in March, which was the most recent fixture. 

Nottingham did have to survive on penalties in the semifinals against Sheffield United (who was a Premier League team a season ago). But that was after having what looked like a commanding 3-1 lead (on aggregate) going into the second half of the second leg. Forest has been the best side in the Championship since Steve Cooper’s first game in charge (Sept 25), taking 76 points from 38 matches and conceding the fewest number of goals. They lost fewer games than both Fulham and Bournemouth during that stretch. Huddersfield is on its own impressive streak, which includes a 17-match unbeaten run from Dec 4 through March 11th, but they needed a late goal (82nd minute) to escape Luton Town in the semis of these playoffs. At the end of the day, I simply believe Nottingham is the better side here. 10* Nottingham Forest

10* Chi Cubs (7:15 ET): These were the only two teams in all of baseball that were off on Friday. It’ll be just a short, two-game set on the Southside this weekend. Earlier this month, the White Sox won a pair of games at Wrigley. But make no mistake about it, while May has gone better (so far) than April did for the Sox, this team has no business being .500 (22-22) on the season. They have a -42 run differential, which is indicative of a 17-win team. Last year’s AL Central Champions were absolutely hammered earlier this week in Boston. While they did manage one win at Fenway, the Sox gave up 16 runs in each loss!

Now the Cubs are also coming off a humiliating setback, 20-5 at Cincinnati on Thursday afternoon. That leaves them eight games below .500 (18-26), one-half game behind the lowly Pirates entering Friday. But the Cubs are the opposite of the White Sox this year in that they are much better than their record. Only outscored by eight runs, you’d expect them to be a lot closer to .500 and the win expectancy was obviously a lot higher before getting beat by 15 runs. Only the Marlins have fallen further short of their win expectancy than have the Cubs. Meanwhile, only the Pirates have exceeded theirs by a greater margin than have the White Sox.

Looking at the starting pitching matchup for Saturday, you’ve got Keegan Thompson going for the Cubs. This will be his third start. The Cubs have won the previous two and last time out Thompson threw five shutout innings. The White Sox Johnny Cueto has yet to allow a run in either of his two starts this year and he cashed as a +145 underdog against the Yankees last week. I don’t see it continuing for Cueto. His team is certainly due to regress, in terms of wins and losses, and has been outscored by a shocking 2.1 runs per game at home. They bat just .219 here. 10* Chi Cubs

10* Miami (8:30 ET): The Heat cannot possibly play any worse than they have the last two games, right? They’ve averaged just 81 points in a pair of double digit losses, the last one coming at home and leaving them in a situation where they now need to beat the Celtics two straight. I would be shocked if the Heat came back to win this series as - coming in - I felt Boston was the deserved favorite. But this is too many to pass up with a Miami team that’s 19-8 ATS as an underdog and playing for its season. In a game that’s expected to be low-scoring, taking the points just seems like the way to go. 

Miami made just 31.9% of its field goal attempts in Game 5 and was 7 of 45 from three-point range! Needless to say, you should expect their shooting to improve. There’s room for improvement from their entire starting five, which collectively has scored a pathetic 60 points (total!) the L2 games. In particular, look to Max Strus, who has somehow gone 0 for 16 from the field, 11 of those misses coming from three-point range. Then you have Kyle Lowry, who was 0 for 6 in the last game and Victor Oladipo, who was 1 for 7. Jimmy Butler was 4 for 18 in Game 5 and has scored just 27 points the L3 games. Someone on this team HAS to step up! 

The Heat were winning at halftime in Game 5, 42-37. Then the wheels came off, similar to what happened for Boston in Game 1. Though no game in the series has been particularly close (only one decided by single digits), this is the largest spread we’ve seen. I don’t expect Miami to simply “roll over” as they are 7-1 ATS the L8 times they’ve been off a double digit loss at home. Also, there have been only two times that the Heat have lost three straight games this year. Once was before Thanksgiving, the other was a four-game slide in late March. Since the start of April, they’ve lost B2B games only once. That was the last round vs. Philadelphia and they responded by crushing the Sixers 120-85 in the next game. 10* Miami

10* Miami (7:20 ET): The Marlins have lost two straight (both to the Rays) and five of six overall. That leaves them at 18-24 overall on the year, but the Fish have a +12 run differential, which tells me they are better than that record. An MLB-high 14 one-run losses is the clear culprit as to why Miami has five fewer wins than “expected” (based on run differential), the largest discrepancy of any team in baseball right now. But I like the spot for them Friday night in Atlanta as the Marlins had Thursday off while the Braves lost 4-1 here at home to the Phillies. By the way, I cashed in on all four games in that Braves-Phillies series, winning on each team twice! 

In recent years, Atlanta has had Miami’s number. The Braves have taken the season series seven years in a row and produced double digit wins against the Marlins 15 of the last 17 seasons. They were 11-8 head to head in 2021, but this year, things look like they are changing. These NL East rivals have split the first six meetings of 2022. Ironically, two of Miami’s three wins have come by one run. It’s interesting to note that while Atlanta has three more wins than Miami this season, their run differential sits at -13. A case can be made that the Marlins have been the better team so far. 

Trevor Rogers will start Friday for Miami. The fact he is 0-5 with a 6.15 ERA all-time vs. Atlanta, and just gave up three home runs (five runs total) when he faced them last week is a little concerning. But what’s not concerning is Rogers’ numbers on the road (1.29 ERA) and the fact he’s bounced back before from a poor outing. Last Friday was the third time Rogers allowed 5+ ER in a start this season. But off the prior two, he’s responded by giving up 0 ER in his next start (10 IP). Atlanta’s Ian Anderson has a losing record in his career vs. Miami and also a 6.92 ERA and 1.923 WHIP in three home starts this year. Anderson allowed four runs and lost in last weekend’s series. The Braves managed just five hits last night without Acuna and Ozuna in the lineup. Acuna will be out again tonight. 10* Miami

7* LA Angels (9:38 ET): This looks like a mismatch to me, with favorable odds on the home team. The Angels, despite getting beat 7-2 last night by the Rangers, are off to a 27-18 start this year and battling for first place in the AL West with the Astros. The Halos certainly appear to be one of the most improved teams in all of baseball this season, and a lot of that improvement has to do with an offense that is 1st in the American League in runs scored. With a solid edge at the plate and in the starting pitching matchup for tonight (more on that momentarily), the home team is a solid play for Thursday. 

Toronto was expected to compete for the AL East pennant this year, but they are currently 7.5 games back of the Yankees and have a -7 YTD run differential. Toronto hitters are chasing way too many pitches out of the zone and the result is a lineup averaging just 3.7 runs per game. Over their L7 games, the Jays are batting a collective .217. They are hitting .221 on the road for the season. I don’t like their chances here against Shohei Ohtani, who comes in sporting a 2.82 ERA and 1.017 WHIP after seven starts. Oftentimes, Ohtani can be overvalued by the oddsmakers, but because his TSR is 3-4 and he’s facing the Blue Jays, we’re getting a really good price, in my opinion. 

Hyun-Jin Ryu will start tonight for Toronto. He’s been better since coming off the injured list, giving up just one run in 10 ⅔ innings. But Ryu is facing a very strong lineup here and he’s still allowed a lot of hard hit balls in those last two starts. Back to the Blue Jays’ offense, it is just 25th in runs and in the six games prior to Tuesday’s 8-1 win over the Cardinals, they scored three or less every time. An off-day isn’t enough to counteract the fact the Jays are simply the inferior ballclub in this matchup. Ohtani seems to hit better in the games where he pitches and Mike Trout is going to bounce back from last night’s unusual 0 for 4 effort at the plate. 7* LA Angels

10* Over Brewers/Cardinals (7:45 ET): This play may seem a bit “odd” at first, considering I just won with the Under (1st 5 innings) in yesterday’s game involving the Brewers. All three games vs. the Padres stayed Under as no more than five runs were scored in any of the contests (only three yday). Now the Brew Crew are matched up with the division rival Cardinals, who are tied with them for the fourth fewest runs allowed in the National League this season. Two solid starting pitchers have resulted in a low total being set for the series opener on Thursday. But I believe the value here is on the Over. 

It’s all about matchups. Eric Lauer is off to a solid start to the year for Milwaukee, but his numbers go up on the road and he’ll be facing a Cardinals lineup that is red hot at the moment. St. Louis comes into tonight having scored an average of 6.6 runs over its last seven games while batting a collective .296. They’d collected 10 or more hits in six straight games before losing to Toronto 8-1 on Tuesday. The Over is 3-0-1 the L4 times St. Louis has faced a left-handed starter. Lauer, a southpaw, has seen the Over hit in four of his seven starts so far and only one had less than seven total runs scored. He allowed 3 HRs the last time he made a start away from home. Lauer’s ERA in four career appearances vs. St. Louis is 7.90. 

 Adam Wainwright goes here for the home team. The veteran also has nice numbers this year, but here he’s facing a Milwaukee lineup that has been killing righties. The Brewers are scoring 5.4 runs per game when facing a right-handed starter. You’ve got to think that after the San Diego series, where they didn’t do much at the plate but still won two of three, the Brew Crew’s bats are ready to “break out.” Eight or more total runs have been scored in each of Wainwright’s last four starts and when he faced Milwaukee on April 14th, he gave up four runs in just 4 ⅓ innings. 10* Over Brewers/Cardinals

9* Philadelphia (7:20 ET): So we’ve come full circle in this series, which began with me taking the Phillies on Monday. They won 7-3, but then it was time to “flip my support” to Atlanta each of the L2 days and they came through for me as well, winning 6-5 and 8-4. If you recall, in Monday’s analysis, I stated that - despite the teams having very similar records - the Phillies were probably better, based on the respective run differentials. The matchups didn’t work in their favor the L2 days, but here I think we’ll see Philly prevail and earn a split of this four-game series. I’m of course hoping to make it a 4-0 sweep! 

Aaron Nola simply does not deserve a 1-8 team start record. The Phillies’ starter for Thursday, Nola has a 0.994 WHIP this season and has allowed 3 ER or less in six of his nine outings. Yet he has not won since his first start of 2022, ironically when he allowed four runs. Four of the eight starts since have seen the Phillies lose by one run. I think it’s time for Nola’s luck to turn and it helps that he’s facing a team he’s gone 12-8 against with a 3.32 ERA and 142 strikeouts. The Braves are only scoring 3.4 runs per game when facing a right-handed starter and batting .220 in those contests. 

Atlanta will counter Nola with Kyle Wright, who has been solid thus far with the exception of a start vs. Boston on May 10th. But Wright has a 5.56 ERA when facing the Phillies and has never beaten them. The Phillies are putting up 5.4 runs per game on the road, which is more than they allow. That goes back to run differential as the team is +10, so you’d think they’d have a winning record. But they are just 20-24 in all games. Atlanta is 21-23, but they’ve been outscored by 10 runs this year. After a win, the Braves are just 6-15 and they’ve not won three straight at any point in 2022 (0-5 when off B2B wins). 9* Philadelphia

9* Under Cubs/Reds (12:35 ET): Last time we checked in on this series was Tuesday when I had the Cubs and they rolled to an easy 11-4 victory. The Northsiders also won Monday’s opener, but on Wednesday it was the Reds’ turn to get into the win column, 4-3, as the Cubs failed to score between the first and ninth innings. I expect this afternoon’s series finale to also be a low-scoring affair as the two starting pitchers, Justin Steele for the Cubs and Hunter Greene for the Reds, have a lot to offer.

Greene has allowed 2 ER or less in each of his last three starts, one of which saw him pulled despite having a no-hitter into the seventh inning. He was just as sharp last Saturday against Toronto where he allowed just one run on four hits over six innings. There’s obviously not a ton to celebrate in the Queen City this season, but Greene is someone to keep an eye on, despite a misleading 1-7 team start record. His average velocity is 99 MPH and he has a strikeout rate of 27.9%. He’s better than his ERA suggests.

The Cubs counter with Steele, who has a 1.80 ERA and 0.867 WHIP over his L3 starts, even better than Greene. He also has a strikeout rate above 26 percent. The Reds’ lineup is quite lousy as they are hitting a collective .217. Also, they are 2-10 in games vs. left-handed starters. Steele is a southpaw. The Cubs’ bullpen has been solid so far this season, ranking third in xFIP during the month of May. This being a day game, don’t go expecting many runs. 9* Under Cubs/Reds

10* Boston (8:30 ET): This has been a curious Eastern Conference Finals with the first four games all being blowouts. Each game of the series has seen a lead of at least 20 points. In Game 4, it was Boston’s turn as they jumped out to an 18-1 lead and never looked back. Miami missed its first 14 field goal attempts and its one point through eight minutes was the fewest in any playoff game in the L25 years. The Celtics were up 29-11 at the end of the first quarter and stretched their lead to 27 in the second and 32 in the third. The game was essentially over by halftime. Boston is now 5-0 SU/ATS off a SU loss this postseason.

It would be easy to say “now it’s the Heat’s turn” as the series goes back to Miami for Game 5. The “Zig Zag Theory” has been in full force in this series and the Heat have only lost once at home (Game 2) this postseason. But let’s not forget a few things. Boston, despite not having the home court advantage, was the favorite coming into this series. They also had the East’s best point differential and net efficiency rating. They’ve been the team up at the half in three of the four games. If not for the third quarter meltdown, the Celtics would be up three games to one. It is my view that the Celtics are the better team and the oddsmakers seem to agree by installing them as Game 5 favorites. 

Miami had six players listed as questionable going into Game 4. Most ended up playing, but the starting five combined for only 18 points, the fewest in a playoff game going back to 1970-71. Obviously that number will go up tonight, but don’t expect the Heat’s bench to score anywhere close to 64 points again. If anything, the point totals from the starting five and reserves may simply reverse. Also, don’t expect Boston to shoot only 23.5% from three again. That they won Game 4 by 20 points, despite being -18 from three-point range is pretty amazing. Right now, the Celtics’ net efficiency rating in the playoffs is several points higher than Miami’s. Look for them to justify being favored in this spot as they take a 3-2 series lead. 10* Boston

8* Atlanta (7:20 ET): I’m 2 for 2 in this series, having cashed the Phillies on Monday and the Braves on Tuesday. I came into the series touting the Phillies as being better, based on the respective run differentials, but we also might be at a “buy low” situation with the reigning World Series Champs, who have the same record (as Philly) and are certainly capable of beating any team on a given night. Considering the way this line has moved (similar to yesterday), the Braves look to be the “right side” here on Wednesday. 

There was definitely some ninth inning drama last night as the Phillies took the lead 5-4 in the top half after a Bryce Harper two-run HR. Harper (4 RBIs) accounted for all but one of Philly’s runs last night. But Atlanta answered in the bottom half with two runs of their own, thanks to a costly error from Phillies’ CF Roman Quinn, to win 6-5. Obviously I’m biased, but it was a game that the Braves “deserved” to win as they outhit the Phillies and led most of the way. They are 10-4 at home vs. the Phillies the L3 seasons. 

The starting pitchers for tonight’s game will be Charlie Morton for Atlanta and Ranger Suarez for Philadelphia. Morton has been sharp of late with a 3-0 TSR, 2.20 ERA and 0.98 WHIP his L3 starts. His last two starts at home have seen him give up just one run and four hits in 11 IP. Suarez is unbeaten on the road (3-0), but also off a bad start where he lasted just three innings and only threw strikes on 48 of 84 pitches. Call it a “hunch,” but the Braves have 25 hits in the first two games and seem ready to break out offensively. 8* Atlanta

9* Feyenoord Goal Line (3:00 ET): The inaugural season of the Europa Conference League has a Final of Roma (representing Serie A) vs. Feyenoord (representing the Dutch Eredivisie). Neither came close to winning their respective domestic leagues this season as Roma was sixth (23 points off the pace) while Feyenoord was third (12 points off). Serie A is rightfully considered the stronger league and thus Roma is unsurprisingly the favorite for this fixture. I did play Jose Mourinho’s side (Roma) in the semis (as a Game of the Year) when they defeated Leicester City 1-0. But Feyenoord has been the better side throughout this particular competition and thus is worth the play on the goal line Wednesday.

Feyenoord has gone undefeated in the Europa Conference League, scoring 28 goals in the process. Remember that by playing them this way (on the goal line), all we need is Feyenoord to be even at the end of 90 minutes + stoppage time. A win would not surprise me considering how dominant the contingent from Rotterdam has been. They were unbeaten across their last 11 competitions before taking a meaningless loss in the Eredivisie finale. The Europa Conference League’s leading scorer is in Feyenoord’s ranks as Cyriel Dessers has tallied 10 goals.

I think the big key here is Feyenoord’s attack, which is a stark contrast to the Roma approach under Mourinho. Serie A wasn’t particularly impressive in European football this season with no Italian club making the quarterfinals of the Champions League and only one making the quarterfinals of the Europa League. Roma did win for me in the Serie A finale, 3-0 over Torino, but before that they hadn’t prevailed in any of their previous five league games. Feyenoord scored three times in the first leg of its semifinal vs. Marseille and was pretty close to Ajax in xG this season in the Eredivisie. 9* Feyenoord (Goal Line)

10* Dallas (9:00 ET): While the Mavericks are down 3-0 in the series and have lost the three games by a combined 43 points, things have actually been more competitive than they seem. The Mavs led Game 2 at the half and were only down one at the half in Game 3. They turned in the defensive effort I expected in the last game, holding Golden State to “just” 46.1% shooting after letting them shoot 56.1% in the first two games. Problem was that the Mavs only shot 40% themselves in Game 3, including a woeful 13 of 45 from three-point range. Take Luka Doncic (40 points) out of the equation and the Mavs’ offensive numbers from Game 3 get real ugly. With the season on the line, at home, I expect better tonight. 

Three Mavericks, Doncic plus Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie, combined for 86 of the team’s 100 points on Sunday. I’m expecting a more balanced effort tonight as the Mavs look to keep their season going. I’m pretty confident that we’ll be getting another strong effort at the defensive end as they are #1 in the league at home in scoring defense, allowing only 101.1 PPG. The three-point shooting is where the Mavs should really improve tonight. They hit 35% from downtown for the year, but have been well below that mark in two of the first three games of this series. 

This is just the third time all season that Dallas has been on a three-game losing streak. They have won and covered in the previous two spots, both of which came before X-Mas. Furthermore, the team has gone 19-5 ATS this season following a game where it scored 100 points or less. All signs point to improvement at the offensive end from the Mavs and given their season-long defensive prowess, I do think they get the win they need tonight. Golden State has failed to win both potential close out games on the road this postseason (allowed 130 PPG), including a 39-point loss in Memphis. 10* Dallas

7* Atlanta (7:20 ET): Yes, I backed the Phillies yesterday and made clear that I thought they were the better overall ballclub. That argument was mostly made based on the teams’ respective run differentials, however the significant edge the Phils had in Monday’s starting pitching matchup also could not be overlooked. Today, that advantage simply does not exist as Atlanta will send out Max Fried, who can almost always be counted on for a quality start. Look for the home team to bounce back from last night’s 7-3 loss here.

Five times in his last six starts Fried has gone at least six innings while allowing 3 ER or less (also known as a “quality start.”) He allowed just four runs total over a four-start stretch from 4/19-5/7 and that included matchups against the Dodgers, Mets and Brewers, the three division leaders in the National League. After allowing four runs to the Padres on May 13th, Fried bounced back by allowing just three runs in six innings in a no-decision vs. the Brewers last week. That was a game the team “should have” won. 

The seven runs scored by the Phillies in last night’s series opener were their most in any game since 5/14. It was also their highest hit total since that same game. So expect some offensive regression here, which is bad news for their starter Kyle Gibson, who comes in with a 6.27 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in four road starts. Gibson hasn’t won on the road since last season. His last time starting on the road, he gave up six runs in just 3 ⅔ innings. Atlanta is 14-7 off a loss this season. 7* Atlanta

10* Over Dodgers/Nationals (7:05 ET): The Dodgers, who are clearly the best team in baseball right now, are on fire at the plate. They’ve put up an average of nearly seven runs per game (themselves) over the last week and were 10-1 winners in Monday’s series opener here in the Nation’s Capital. Unsurprisingly, LA is a big moneyline favorite again tonight with Walker Buehler on the mound. I expect their string of high-scoring efforts to continue against former teammate Josiah Gray, but Buehler will likely give up some runs too and that makes the Over the right call in this one.

Buehler’s strikeout rate is down this season and he has a 4.24 ERA/1.412 WHIP over his L3 starts. Now that’s mostly due to him giving up five runs in five innings to the Phillies, what ended up being a wild 12-10 game. But Buehler has gone just five innings in four of his last six starts, including three of the last four. On the surface, Washington’s offensive numbers at home look pretty bad (just 2.7 rpg!) but I’d look for them to improve, Juan Soto specifically as he currently is at a career-low in both batting average and OPS. It’s only a matter of time before he turns things around at the plate. The Nats have 36 hits in their L4 games, so the fact they’ve scored 1 run or less in three of them seems a bit unlucky to me. 

But you can count on the Dodgers to do most of the scoring in this game. They come in having scored a league-high 131 runs this month (6.2 per game) and the Nationals’ pitching staff happens to have surrendered the most runs in all of baseball. Gray, who was sent to Washington as part of the Max Scherzer trade, has a 6.43 ERA and 1.5571 WHIP at home and he’s allowed four or more runs in three of his eight starts overall. I like this total as we’re still below the key number of 9 and I expect just as many total runs scored as we saw yesterday. 10* Over Dodgers/Nationals

9* Chi Cubs (6:40 ET): The Cubs came in and took the series opener here in Cincinnati, 7-4, despite the Reds hitting three home runs. The Cubs hit two HRs of their own though, both three-run shots, and that turned out to be more than enough. Other than their three homers, the Reds finished with just two hits and as you know this quickly has turned into a miserable season in the Queen City as the team is buried down in the cellar of the NL Central with the worst overall record in baseball. 

The Reds have been a bit better of late, winning 8 of their last 14 games, but four of their wins this month have come against the Pirates, who are the only team with a worse run differential. All things considered, I think this is a tremendous value to go against Cincinnati. The Cubs, despite being 17-24 on the year, have a winning road record (10-9) and a positive run differential (+1) on the year. Going back to their last series (vs. Arizona), the Cubbies have jumped out to a three-run lead in each of the last three games. 

I like their chances of doing that again here, facing Tyler Mahle. Despite a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts, Mahle still has a 4.61 ERA. Two of his last three starts came against the Pirates, so take the 3-0 team start record with a grain of salt. The Reds are 6-22 off a loss this season and 5-19 in night games. The Cubs counter with Marcus Stroman, who has a 2.00 ERA and 0.778 WHIP his last three starts. He’s deserving of better than a 1-5 TSR this season and after coming off the COVID list, he turned in five solid innings vs. Arizona last week. Stroman’s last start away from home saw him toss seven shutout innings of two-hit ball. 9* Chi Cubs

10* Under Heat/Celtics (8:30 ET): I thought for sure that I had the Under cashed in Game 3 of this series. With 48 seconds remaining, the Heat were up 100-94. The total was 208.5. Stranger things have certainly happened, but you don’t normally see 15+ points scored over the final 48 seconds. Well, Game 3 saw 18 as there were a couple technical fouls plus Boston kept making “garbage time” threes. The Over is now 3-0 in this series, which is not what most were expecting and going back to 2020, the teams are 8-0-1 Over when facing each other in the Conference Finals. Don’t you think it’s time for an Under? 

There’s a good chance Miami enters Game 4 shorthanded as six players (Lowry, Tucker, Herro, Strus, Vincent and Butler) are all listed as questionable. Though they won despite him leaving Game 3 early, Butler not playing would be significant as he’s been the unquestioned “go to guy” for the Heat at the offensive end in these playoffs. Butler is averaging nearly 30 PPG in the postseason. Bam Adebayo scored 31 in Game 3. Though he should again rack up some good stats, especially if multiple teammates are out, Adebayo isn’t likely to match his Game 3 scoring output as he scored only 16 in the first two games combined. 

I can’t see Jaylen Brown scoring 40 again for the Celtics either. His previous playoff high was 30. A big key in this series is that we’ve seen high-scoring first halves. The team with the lead at the half (Boston twice) has scored at least 62 points. I don’t anticipate that being the case in Game 4 as these are two of the best defensive teams in the league and neither allows more than 53.2 per game in the 1H for the year. So look for the scoring to (finally) slow down as Boston is 12-6 Under this season when coming off a SU loss as a favorite. 10* Under Heat/Celtics

10* Philadelphia (7:20 ET): Though both teams enter this series eight games back of the Mets, with identical 19-22 records, I think it’s fair to say the Phillies have played far better than the reigning World Series Champion Braves in 2022. Philadelphia has a +11 run differential so far while Atlanta is -11. The last two weekends have seen the Phils be very competitive with the Dodgers, who are the best team in baseball, taking four of seven games including yesterday’s 4-3 final. The Phillies also have some revenge here after being swept late last season at Truist Park. I like the road team in today’s series opener. 

Bryce Harper is just 1 for 8 since returning to the Phillies lineup, but it’s only a matter of time before he gets going at the plate again. Really, tonight should be a big game for the entire Phillies’ lineup, which is averaging 5.4 runs per game on the road. They face Tucker Davidson, a lefty with just one start under his belt. Davidson did throw five shutout innings in that lone start, but also did allow 5 ER earlier this year in his one stint as a reliever. The Phillies have hit lefties relatively well thus far and would seem to be “due” for a big offensive game on Monday after 10 straight games of facing the pitching of the Dodgers & Padres. 

On the mound, Zack Wheeler should get the job done here for the visitors. Wheeler has allowed a total of just three runs over his last four starts, going 2-0 with a 1.04 ERA. In three of the four starts, he went at least six innings and didn’t give up a single run. He has 23 strikeouts against only two walks in his last three starts and last time we saw Wheeler he allowed just four hits against San Diego. The Braves have scored three runs or less in four of their last seven games (lost 4-3 Sunday in Miami) and they have a losing record at home. Wheeler has a 3.23 career ERA against them. 10* Philadelphia

8* Pittsburgh (6:35 ET): I know that backing the Pirates isn’t exactly the “sexy” move right now, but after being drubbed over the weekend by St. Louis (here at home), they should come out highly motivated for the opener of this new series. The Bucs are getting an ideal opponent in Colorado, who has dropped 10 of its last 13 overall, including six of nine on a recently completed homestand. The Rockies just played a doubleheader on Saturday, so that’s three games in the last two days for them and as we all know, they are traditionally a terrible team away from Coors Field. They are 1-9 L10 games as a road underdog.

The Pirates were absolutely humiliated on Sunday, losing 18-4 to the Cardinals in an early start time. It was 7-0 by the second inning. But they should count on getting a better start here from JT Brubaker, who had 10 strikeouts in his last start and also threw six shutout innings of four hit ball in his lone start vs. Colorado last season. The Rockies just are not doing much scoring on the road this year, averaging only 2.7 runs per game, the fewest in the National League. Furthermore, when facing a right-hander on the road, the team is last in batting average, 29th in slugging and 29th in OPS. They are getting outscored by more than 3.0 rpg on the road thus far! Did I mention that, at home, Colorado was shutout on Sunday? Their current lineup is batting just .150 all-time vs. Brubaker. 

The Rockies inability to hit/score runs on the road is especially problematic tonight as they send Chad Kuhl to the mound. Kuhl has a 7.54 ERA and 1.754 WHIP over his L3 starts and the team has lost them all. He’s allowed 5 ER in B2B outings.As a former member of the Pirates, Kuhl knows PNC Park well, but I don’t think that will help him in this instance. The Rockies’ relief pitching is no better as they are last in bullpen ERA. Something else to note is that the team has lost its last six series openers. This is one of the rare times Pittsburgh is a justified ML favorite. 8* Pittsburgh

8* Cagliari (3:00 ET): It’s the final matchday of the season in Serie A. While most are going to be concerned with the two Noon ET fixtures, involving AC Milan and Inter, the two sides battling out for the league championship, don’t forget that (later in the day) there’s a relegation battle to be sorted out. Genoa and Venezia have already been condemned down to Serie B for next season, but the third relegation spot has not yet been decided. It will either be Salernitana or Cagliari. Not only must Cagliari win here to have a chance of survival, they need Salernitana to do no better than a draw against Udinese. 

Cagliari can only handle its own business, but you have to like their chances of doing so as they face last place Venezia on Sunday. Venezia is one of only two sides in Europe’s “Big 5” leagues to have recorded fewer points than Cagliari since March. I realize that as bad as Venezia has been, things have not been much brighter for Cagliari, who could only manage a 1-1 draw with Salernitana and lost to Genoa recently. But if the Rossoblu cannot win here, then it certainly could be said they are deserving of a demotion down to Serie B. I believe Cagliari gets the full three points here.

Venezia should have lost last week to Roma, who missed two penalties, not to mention completely dominated in terms of shots and possession. The team at the foot of the Serie A table has now picked up four points from their last two matches (beat Bologna two weeks ago). Of course, it was “all for naught” as they are already confirmed for relegation. This is actually the first time Venezia has gone two straight matches without defeat since November! Given the circumstance the opposition is in, it’s VERY difficult for me to see the hosts even sharing the points on Sunday. They are down to their third string goaltender and there’s a long line of suspensions for this final matchday. 8* Cagliari

10* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): I played Arizona Friday afternoon, noting that they’d taken the series opener at Wrigley Field (the previous day) without scoring many runs (3-1). They delivered with an easy 10-6 victory over the Cubs, scoring multiple runs in three of the first five innings. I laid off yesterday’s game, figuring the Cubs weren’t going to be swept at home this weekend and most of the way, that appeared to be a prudent decision. The Cubs led 4-0 after the third inning and appeared well on their way to victory still up 4-1 heading into the eighth. But then they allowed the D’backs to tie the game and in extra innings things were decided on a three run double by Daulton Varsho. The Cubs scoring twice in the bottom half of the 10th was not enough. 

Last Sunday, I took a team in this very same spot (at home, lost first three games of the series) and they came through with a victory for me. Now that was the Dodgers, who are obviously a lot better than the Cubs. But let me point out that Chicago should be a lot better than 6-15 at Wrigley this season as they’ve scored more runs here than they’ve allowed. Despite winning the first three games of this series, I’m not sold on Arizona long-term as they still have a -21 YTD run differential, despite their .500 record (21-21).

The starting pitching matchup today certainly appears to be in the Cubs’ favor as they’ll send Wade Miley to the bump. The veteran Miley has made a pair of starts in 2022 and the most recent went very well as he held Pittsburgh to just one hit over seven shutout innings. Miley will be opposed by Merrill Kelly, who gave up EIGHT runs in his last start, lasting only two innings. Arizona pitching has allowed five or more runs in six of the last seven games. Only once in their history have the D’backs swept the Cubs at Wrigley and that was a three-game series in 2017. After letting one get away yesterday, I’m calling for the home team to avoid the four-game sweep. 10* Chi Cubs

10* Cadiz (2:00 ET): Cadiz MUST pick up points here or they will be relegated to La Liga 2 (the Segunda Division). They enter the final matchday of the season level on points with Mallorca (36) but would lose the tiebreaker due to head to head points. There’s a third side (Granada) that is also involved in the relegation battle right now. They are one point ahead of both Mallorca and Cadiz, so what it boils down to here is that Cadiz really needs to win Sunday. While not in control of their own destiny, they could not have asked for a better opponent in Alaves, who we already know is getting relegated next season.

Alaves is the last place team in La Liga and Levante’s win on Friday assured they’ll stay in the basement no matter what they do here. That Levante result really “kills” any motivation for Alaves, who had been showing glimpses prior to last week’s tough 3-1 loss to Levante, which sealed their relegation. Alaves has actually alternated wins and losses over their last six fixtures, but I cannot see the trend continuing here as it certainly does not help that Gonzalo Escalante, the club’s second-leading scorer, is forced to sit this final match out due to picking up a second yellow card last week. 

Despite sitting in the drop zone, Cadiz has shown improvement of late as they have faced each of La Liga’s top eight sides over their last 11 matches, a stretch which has seen them pick up an admirable 15 points and lose just four times. It was disappointing that Cadiz could only share the points last week vs. Real Madrid (who rested starters). But in any other circumstance, a 1-1 draw with the league champs would be cause for celebration. They’ve now failed to win two straight, but one would have to go back to February to find the last time Cadiz went three straight w/o picking up the full three points at least once. In their biggest match of the season, I expect them to get the job done. 10* Cadiz

10* Crystal Palace Goal Line (11:00 AM ET): While most will be focused on the race for the Premier League Title (Man City or Liverpool), the race for the fourth Champions League spot (Tottenham or Arsenal), or the relegation battle (Burnley or Leeds), there is one other race to be settled in the EPL on Sunday. It is to determine who finishes sixth and joins either Tottenham or Arsenal (likely the latter) in the Europa League. The “contestants” are Manchester United, in action here, and West Ham. Man U enters the final matchday with a two point lead over the Hammers, but likely needs more than a draw here based on their inferior goal differential. I’m not convinced they get it. 

Crystal Palace has been one of the EPL’s more underrated sides this campaign. The Eagles may only sit 13th in the table, but they actually have a better GD than Manchester United. Not only do they sit seventh in the league in GD, they are sixth in expected points! Quite frankly, Palace has played better football this season than has United, especially of late. While the Eagles did just blow a 2-0 lead Thursday at a highly motivated Everton side (who was looking to secure safety from relegation), they had previously gone unbeaten in their prior four matches. Palace could finish as high as 10th with a win here, which would be their highest Premier League finish in some time. Remember that they made it all the way to the FA Cup semis as well. 

Manchester United hasn’t played in almost two weeks, when it suffered arguably its most humiliating defeat of the season, 4-0 at the hands of Brighton & Hove Albion. Honestly, it’s difficult to make the case that the Red Devils are deserving of the Europa League. They will finish with their worst ever point total in a Premier League season. No matter what happens Sunday, all will not be lost as they’ll still end up in the Europa Conference League if West Ham does end up jumping them in the table. Playing for a lame duck manager, I can just not see United doing better than a draw in this circumstance. Palace has been the better side and is deserving of a Top 10 finish. Play the underdog on the Goal Line. 10* Crystal Palace (Goal Line)

10* Under Heat/Celtics (8:30 ET): The expectation was that the Eastern Conference Finals would be pretty low-scoring. After all, Boston led the league in scoring defense (104.5 PPG) during the regular season and has been even stingier in the playoffs (103.1 PPG allowed). Not to be overlooked is the fact the Under was 8-2-1 in Miami playoff games in Rounds 1 and 2 with them turning in the second best defensive efficiency rating during that time. The Heat have allowed an average of just 100.5 PPG in the postseason. That’s even after the first two games saw way more points scored than what was expected. 

With these two teams combining to go 14-0 Over in their L14 Conference Finals games, I think that it’s time to go “the other way” here in Game 3. Boston shot 51% in Game 2 and made 20 threes, numbers they probably can’t hope to match tonight. For a frame of reference, the Celtics shot 45.6% in Game 1 and made only 11 threes. Save for the third quarter of Game 1, they really have looked like the better team in this series. That dubious third quarter is the only quarter in the two games where the Celtics were outscored. (Teams were even in the third and fourth in Game 2). I just don’t think we’re going to see the same amount of scoring from Boston, especially in the first half, tonight. 

Miami shot just 29.4% from three-point range in the last game. They’ll likely improve from that, but not by enough to affect the total. I expect this game to be played at a slower pace. The Celtics have allowed 103 points or fewer in six of their last nine games. The Heat have allowed 103 or less in 7 of their last 10 games. I think for tonight, the winning team may only need 100. Miami has not allowed 100+ points in three straight games during these playoffs. This is the highest O/U line of the series. 10* Under Heat/Celtics

8* Run Line Kansas City (7:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I’m taking the Royals +1.5. The first four meetings between these AL Central rivals this season have all been decided by two runs or fewer. Last night, it was the Twins picking up the 6-4 victory. The Royals took two of three in the previous series (also here in KC), so while they are (badly) lagging behind Minnesota in the standings (8.5 games back), they have shown they can compete with them. Sooner or later, you’ve got to figure these surprising Twins are going to come back “down to Earth.”

This looks like a pretty even pitching matchup, at least on paper, with Brad Keller opposing Joe Ryan. It would seem very unfortunate that Keller has just one win in seven starts as he has a 2.89 ERA and 1.008 WHIP. At home, the numbers are even better. The team start record boils down to the fact that the Royals are barely scoring three runs per game in Keller starts. Eventually, that “worm has to turn.” Last time out, Keller again did not get the win, but it was the fifth time in seven outings he went at least six innings and allowed three runs or less (aka a “quality start.”) Keller did not pitch in the last series vs. Minnesota, but does have a 3.20 ERA in nine career starts against them.

Ryan’s numbers are slightly better than Keller’s. He also did toss six shutout innings here at Kauffman Stadium last month, a game the Twins won 1-0. But recently, Ryan has struggled a little bit, failing to go a full five innings in two of his last three starts. He’s coming off a career-high 103 pitches against Cleveland last Sunday. It remains to be seen how a rookie fares off an outing like that. At the end of the day, this looks like a really even matchup to me and it’s nice to have an additional 1.5 runs in our back pocket. Home team does no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Kansas City (+1.5)

10* Miami (6:10 ET): The Marlins probably aren’t the main focus of the Miami sports scene this evening, but they’re a good value at home facing the division rival Braves. Now Atlanta did come in and take the series opener on Friday, by a score of 5-3, but that was largely thanks to another ineffective start from Miami’s Trevor Rogers, who was charged with all five runs. The Marlins’ bullpen didn’t allow any runs over its five innings of work and the home team ended up with more hits than the Braves did. Atlanta is still a bit overvalued due to winning the World Series last year and I think Miami is better than its record.

After last night’s result, the Braves are now one-half game ahead of the Marlins in the NL East standings (they have one more win). But run differential paints a much different picture of the two clubs. Atlanta has been outscored by 11 runs on the season. Miami has a +17 run differential. Their 12 one-run losses (easily the most in baseball) have really hurt as no team has underachieved its win expectancy more. Look for their luck to turn however, especially at home where they are somehow 9-11 despite having outscored their opposition by a fairly significant margin. 

Getting the baseball for Miami this evening will be Elieser Hernandez. It has not been a great start to the year for Hernandez, but Atlanta is hitting just .211 on the road thus far and .208 in games where they face a right-handed starter. Hernandez has a 2-0 TSR vs. the Braves since the start of last season. With him on the mound last month, the Marlins beat the Braves as a +145 underdog (even though Hernandez didn’t pitch very well). I expect him to outduel Kyle Wright in this spot as Wright is only two starts removed from getting shelled for six runs. Miami has done a lot more hitting than Atlanta recently and I expect the offense to carry Hernandez in this one. 10* Miami

10* Under Empoli/Atalanta (2:45 ET): Atalanta enters the final matchday of their Serie A season in desperate need of a result. They are tied with Fiorentina (both at 59 points) but lose the tiebreaker based on head to head points. That means Atalanta must finish ahead of La Viola in order to qualify for the Europa Conference League, a spot that only opened up because the winners of the Coppa Italia (Inter) had already qualified for the Champions League, so the corresponding Europa League spot is then passed down to the sixth place finisher (clinched by Roma) on Friday.

If Fiorentina loses to Juventus on Saturday, then a draw will suffice here for Atalanta. La Dea may not want to leave that to chance though. Still, I suspect this fixture will be lower scoring than the reverse, which saw Atalanta prevail 4-1. Empoli has endured a simply dreadful run of form lately, winning just ONCE in their last 21 matches! That run has seen them slip only to 14th in the table, well clear of the relegation zone, which last year’s Serie B champs will gladly take as the only goal this season was to survive and remain in the Italian top flight. Last week, Empoli could only muster a 1-1 draw with relegation-threatened Salernitana. 

Now Atalanta’s recent form hasn’t been so great either, which is why they are in this predicament. They’ve posted only two wins in their last 10 matches and those victories came against Spezia and Venezia, two bottom of the table sides, the latter having already been relegated. Atalanta couldn’t even get on the scoresheet last week vs. AC Milan, losing 2-0. Goal differential does not matter to La Dea here, all they need is one goal and then try to hold Empoli off for the three points. Not sure if Fiorentina will cooperate, but the task at hand seems rather easy for Atalanta this week. 10* Under Empoli/Atalanta

10* RB Leipzig (2:00 ET): Though the Bundesliga season has concluded, we’re not yet quite done with German football in 2021/22. Thursday saw me cash the 1st leg of the promotion/relegation playoff with Hamburg SV. Now we’ve got the Final of the DFB Pokal, the second most prestigious club title in all of Germany, between Freiburg and RB Leipzig. Considering the respective ends to the Bundesliga season for these two sides, I think there’s only one way to play this one. I just can’t see how Freiburg “gets up” after an extremely disappointing final matchday. 

If you don’t know, Leipzig finished 4th and Freiburg 6th in the Bundesliga table. That means Leipzig is going to the Champions League next season while Freiburg is stuck in the less prestigious Europa League. Freiburg was in fourth with two matches left, but picked up zero points down the stretch, losing  to Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen, the latter being decided by a goal in the seventh minute of stoppage time. That coincided with Leipzig getting a stoppage time equalizer against Arminia Bielefeld to ensure it finished top four. 

Despite these clubs playing to a pair of 1-1 draws during the Bundesliga season and finishing only three points apart, I think there’s a strong argument that Leipzig is vastly superior. They were second in the Bundesliga in expected points (Freiburg was 6th) and Leipzig had the far better goal differential. In fact, Leipzig was also second in GD (+35) while Freiburg was only +12. This will be the first time in club history that Freiburg is playing for the German Cup while Leipzig is here for the third time in the last four years (lost previous two). Freiburg also only had to get past a second tier side (Hamburg SV) in the semifinals while Leipzig vanquished Union Berlin. Freiburg hasn’t beaten Leipzig in any of the previous five meetings and Leipzig was as good as any Bundesliga side in 2022. 10* RB Leipzig 

10* San Diego (10:10 ET): Padres’ pitching certainly showed up in a major way in the last series, holding the Phillies to just three runs total with two shutouts. While Friday’s starter Sean Manaea has an 0-4 team start record his L4 outings, I think he’s due for a better result here against the Giants. Manaea not only has a 2.70 ERA on the road this season (four starts), his WHIP is 0.862. He had 12 strikeouts his last time out and coming up empty in three straight quality starts suggests to me that Manaea is certainly “due” for a win here.

As I’ve said previously, there is simply no way that the Giants are going to be as profitable as they were last season when they finished with a MLB-best +45 units. They come into this game having won 8 of 11, which has them firmly “in the black,” but almost all those wins came against a Rockies team whose number they’ve had ever since the start of last season. They did lose in Colorado, 5-3, on Thursday. When NOT facing the Rockies, the Giants are just 4-6 this month. They trail San Diego in the standings, despite a superior run differential. While that usually would have me on them, I think the disparity is a sign of things to come. 

Not only does SD have Manaea, who has a 2.72 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in eight career starts vs SF, they have a 14-7 record on the road where they are 5-1-1 in series. Meanwhile, the Giants will send Jake Junis to the bump tonight. Junis began the year in Triple-A and both of his big-league starts came against the Cardinals. His five seasons with the Royals were hardly inspiring as he produced a 29-35 record to go along with a 4.82 ERA and 1.353 WHIP. This is a game the Padres should come in and steal. 10* San Diego

9* Over Rangers/Astros (8:10 ET): Houston easily won last night’s series opener, 5-1, their second straight game that finished with that exact score. They came out on the losing end against Boston on Wednesday, but this is a series that figures to continue to go the Astros’ way. After all, they are 40-19 the L3 seasons as a home favorite of -125 to -175 and 14-2 their L16 home games vs. the Rangers. But I’m more interested in the total on tonight’s game as this should be a lot higher scoring compared to last night. You can watch on Apple TV! 

Houston’s pitching has obviously been outstanding this year, but Cristian Javier (Friday’s starter) doesn’t have much to do with that. In three starts, Javier has a 5.79 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He gave up seven runs in his last start, a game the Astros ended up losing 13-6 to the Nationals. While Javier only allowed two runs in five innings when he faced the Rangers back in April, and has consistently fared well against them in the past, the Rangers’ left-handed heavy lineup should consistently make contact and hit the ball hard off Javier tonight. Texas had scored 6+ runs in four straight games coming into this series.

Houston has scored at least five runs in eight of its last 10 games and averaged 6.0 rpg in its last seven contests. Now Martin Perez gets the baseball here for the Rangers and not only has he been sharp recently (2-0, 0.84 ERA L5 starts), his 2.84 career ERA vs. Houston (15 starts) is his lowest versus any opponent. But I’ll call for some regression here as I’m not sure I see Perez going 6+ innings a sixth straight time. Note that both teams have seen their L7 games average more than 10 runs. 9* Over Rangers/Astros

10* AS Roma (2:45 ET): Roma can clinch a spot in next season’s Europa League with a win today in their final Serie A match of the season. Sure, if things don’t work out, Jose Mourinho’s side will get a “second chance” at the 2022/23 Europa League if they defeat Feyenoord in next week’s Europa Conference League Final. But why risk it? They’d also like to head into next week’s Final with SOME momentum as Roma has actually not won in Serie A since April 10th, a streak of five consecutive matches. Last week was a very disappointing 1-1 draw with last place Venezia. I say Roma ends its Serie A campaign on a “high note.” 

Torino has had a solid season and done well when I’ve taken them, but they have nothing to play for here on this final matchday. The Bull should be quite satisfied with where they are currently at (10th in the table) considering the last two seasons brought 16th and 17th place finishes. Depending how this weekend’s results shake out, Torino could finish anywhere from 9th to 11th. A top 10 finish sounds nice for a side that’s only lost one time since April, but their opponents are going to come in as the more motivated of the two sides on Friday. 

I mentioned the disappointing draw for Roma last week. They missed TWO penalties. Venezia also was a man down (red card) from the 32nd minute on. The only goal Roma conceded came in the opening minute, which always feels like a “fluke.” Bottom line is it was a match Roma SHOULD have won. They absolutely dominated possession and shots on goal. Conceding early goals has actually been a problem in the L2 matches, but won’t be here as Roma blanked Torino 1-0 in the reverse back in November. Torino will be missing a number of players due to injury today. 10* AS Roma

9* Arizona (2:20 ET): It didn’t take much offense for the D’backs to defeat the Cubs in the series opener on Thursday (just three runs), so I figure that with them likely to score more today, another victory is on the horizon. The win on Thursday stopped a six-game slide for Arizona, but remember they are no longer facing the Dodgers, who were responsible for four of those six losses. Now the Cubs were responsible for the other two, but this series looks to be headed in a different direction than the last one.

On the periphery, today’s starting pitching matchup seems to be pretty even, but I believe Arizona has the edge. The Cubs have hit just .203 their L7 games, so look for them to struggle against Humberto Castellanos, who has a 2.76 ERA and 0.919 WHIP his L3 starts. Castellanos was a bit of a “hard luck loser” against the Cubs last week as he gave up two solo shots, but those were the only runs he allowed in 5 ⅓ innings. He actually did not factor into the final decision, which was a Cubs’ 3-2 win. The Cubs have been struggling to hit righties this month and several players are missing from the lineup right now. 

Kyle Hendricks starts today for the Cubs. He has a higher ERA and WHIP than Castellanos. He’s had three starts so far where he allowed 4+ ER and two where he gave up six. Hendricks was able to outduel Zac Gallen when he faced Arizona last week, giving up only one run in 5 ⅔ IP. But Hendricks’ lack of strikeouts this season should be a concern. He’s struck out only two batters in four of his previous five outings. The Cubs do have a positive run differential (+2 YTD), but that’s misleading and a byproduct from several massive wins over the lowly Pirates. Take Arizona to win here. 9* Arizona

10* Boston (8:30 ET): The Celtics had the scoring edge in three of the four quarters Tuesday night. Problem is they got annihilated in the third, getting outscored 39-14 by the Heat. While Boston may not get out to the same hot start we saw in Game 1 (62 points in the first half), I do like them to bounce back and at least cover the number here in Game 2. The status of both Marcus Smart and Al Horford remain in question for tonight, but Smart has been upgraded to probable. Regardless, without those two players, Boston looked like the better team for 75% of Game 1. Take the points. 

It was Jimmy Butler (41 points) again bailing out the Heat in Game 1. He was 17 of 18 from the free throw line though, which I don’t think can be repeated here. The Heat could be missing both Max Straus and Gabe Vincent, in addition to Kyle Lowry (out) tonight. I know that this team is undefeated at home in the postseason (7-0 SU) with all but one of those wins coming by double digits. But Boston is 3-0 ATS this postseason when down in the series and has not lost B2B games since the end of March. The Celtics are 8-2 ATS following a double digit loss this season and outscoring opponents by 8.4 PPG when off an ATS loss. 

The Celtics had some expected three-point regression in Game 1, but what was surprising was the fact they allowed 118 points. This was the #1 scoring defense in the NBA during the regular season. In its previous seven games, Miami had topped 108 only twice. The probable return of Smart, the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year, should certainly help at that end of the floor, especially when it comes to containing Butler. Even if Smart can’t go, Butler has only averaged 21.5 PPG off his two previous 40+ point efforts this postseason. There’s no rest advantage this time for Miami. 10* Boston

9* Under Burnley/Aston Villa (3:00 ET): So this one is huge for Burnley as they try and escape the drop zone (bottom three) in the Premier League. All it would take is a draw to draw level with Leeds United at 35 points and Burnley would be way ahead on goal differential, thus avoiding relegation to the Championship. But with one more matchday to go after this (Sunday) where they will face a resurgent Newcastle United, a win would be quite nice for the Clarets. Problem is, even against what is probably going to be an unmotivated Aston Villa club, I can’t really trust them on the road. 

Burnley turned in a game effort last weekend against Tottenham Hotspur, a top four side trying to play its way into next season’s Champions League. But they came up short, 1-0, the lone goal being a Harry Kane penalty in first half stoppage time. It marked the fifth time in the last seven matches that the Clarets scored 1 or 0 goals and they haven’t scored more than two in any fixture since a 3-2 win over Everton back on April 6th. Prior to that win, the Clarets had been blanked in four consecutive matches. So you can see why they are in the position they are in. Only last place Norwich City has scored fewer times than Burnley this season in EPL action. 

Aston Villa no longer needs to worry about the threat of relegation, but they have suffered 18 defeats this campaign, which is two more than Burnley has and tied for fourth most in the entire English top flight. Villa is coming off a tough 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace (where I again had the Under) and both goals scored came in the final half hour. Villa gave up the equalizer in the 81st minute. It was less than two weeks ago they beat Burnley 3-1, but I can’t see Villa scoring three times again here and Burnley’s lone goal in that reverse came in stoppage time. 9* Under Burnley/Aston Villa

10* Hamburger SV Goal Line (2:30 ET): This is the relegation playoff in the Bundesliga. For those that are unfamiliar, here’s how it works. The team that finished with the third worst record in the top flight (in this case, Hertha Berlin) faces the third place finisher in the 2. Bundesliga (Hamburger SV). There are two legs (matches) played with each side hosting one. After both legs are complete, whomever is ahead on aggregate score will be in the top flight next season. Note that I’m playing the goal line here, feeling that the underdog (Hamburger) will do no worse than a draw.

Typically, when you have a team from the top flight taking on a team from the second tier, you’d expect the former to have a significant edge. But I don’t think any such edge exists here. Hertha Berlin finished with the second worst goal differential in the Bundesliga this season, ahead of only last place Greuther Furth. Meanwhile, not only did Hamburger finish with the best GD down in the 2, they also made it all the way to the semifinals of DFB Pokal, the second most prestigious club title in all of Germany. So this side is battle-tested. They won their last five league games by an aggregate score of 16-5. After three straight years of finishing fourth down in the 2, Hamburger is ready to earn itself a promotion and will be all about this opportunity.

Now when looking at the statistics, you must obviously factor in the level of competition. Only once in the last nine years has the team from the 2 won the Bundesliga Relegation Playoff. But Hamburger did defeat one top flight team (FC Koln) during their run in the DFB Pokal. Something else that must be considered is the way Hertha landed in this spot. It looked as if they would avoid the Relegation Playoff and claim safety, but Stuttgart getting a late goal (92nd minute) vs. Koln moved them ahead in the table. This is just a brutal spot for Hertha as up to nine first-teamers may miss this match, including the goaltender! Back the Red Shorts! 10* Hamburger SV (Goal Line)

9* Under White Sox/Royals (2:10 ET): So we’ve got two starting pitchers with pretty ugly numbers in this series finale, but the way the previous four games have gone, I’m not expecting many runs here. Not only have the White Sox only scored a grand total of 11 runs so far against KC pitching, there have been nine or fewer total runs scored in 16 of their last 20 games with the Under going 14-5-1. Chicago has scored only six runs total its last three games and is facing an opponent that averages only 2.6 rpg at home. Take the Under in this divisional matchup. 

The Under is 12-6-1 in Royals’ home games this season, including 3-0-1 in this series. There have been eight total runs scored in two of the four games and just three total in the other two. As alluded to above, I think we’re getting an inflated number here because of the two starting pitchers, neither of whom have very good numbers on the season. But Kansas City’s Carlos Hernandez is 3-0 all-time vs. Chicago with a 2.70 ERA. Hernandez has been rocked in B2B starts, but note the last one was at Coors Field. His final three starts of April all saw him allow 3 ER or less. The White Sox are hitting only .218 in games where they face a left-handed starter. 

Vince Velaquez was originally going to start yesterday’s game for Chicago, but he was bumped back (in favor of Lucas Giolito) and I think the extra day of rest will work in his favor. As mentioned earlier, Kansas City has simply not been scoring much at home. Only Oakland has averaged fewer runs at home this season. Velasquez, like Hernandez, did get rocked his last time out. But that came against the Yankees. In the two starts prior, Velasquez had allowed a total of only one run in 10 ⅔ innings. He allowed more HRs (3) last time out than he did in his previous five starts combined (2). A bounce back is in order today. 9* Under White Sox/Royals

7* NY Mets (1:10 ET): The Mets are trying to avoid what would only be a second series loss in 2022 as they host the Cardinals in the finale of a four-game set on Thursday afternoon. After the teams split a doubleheader on Tuesday, the NL East leaders romped to an 11-4 victory in last night’s game. The only previous series the Mets did not win was the last one where they dropped two of three here at home to the Mariners. That should be fresh on the players’ minds this afternoon as they look to continue this excellent start to the season. The Mets are 25-14 and were 10-0-1 in the first 11 series. I think they get it done today. 

Things were looking great for the Mets most of the way last night as they held a 6-2 lead going into the sixth inning. But then Max Scherzer left with an injury and the Cardinals were able to cut that four-run deficit in half. But the Mets, as they’ve often done this season, poured it on in the late innings, scoring five times in the bottom of the eighth. With the quick turnaround between games, I think it’s harder for the team that lost the previous day. The Mets have won all four Thursday games this season. 

Chris Bassitt gets the baseball for the home side and he’s been outstanding thus far, delivering a 2.34 ERA and 1.016 WHIP in seven starts. Back on April 26th, Bassitt tossed six shutout innings of two-hit ball against these Cardinals. He’s allowed 1 or 0 ER five times. Opposing hitters just aren’t making much contact off Bassitt and when they do, the balls aren’t being hit hard. As for Dakota Hudson, who starts for the Cards today, his expected ERA is more than two full runs higher than his actual ERA (3.06) so expect some regression there. Hudson also has a 1.723 WHIP his L3 starts as he’s walked a total of eight batters, which is more than he’s struck out. The Mets are the better team here and have the pitching edge at home. 7* NY Mets

9* Philadelphia (1:10 ET): I had the Phillies last night as they rolled to a 3-0 victory over San Diego in the middle game of this three-game set. That result was quite welcome in the City of Brotherly Love as not only had the home team lost by that same 3-0 score on Monday, but they’d lost two in a row overall. But as explained in yday’s analysis, the Phils had been playing well before blowing a late lead to the Dodgers on Sunday. They’d won five of six, three of those victories coming out in LA. Also, Philly is better than its record (18-19) as they have a +18 YTD run differential and have scored the most runs of any NL East team. I like them to win again this afternoon and take the series. 

The Phillies will look to get back to .500 today behind right-hander Kyle Gibson, who has been excellent at home thus far in 2022. Gibson has a 1.93 ERA/0.696 WHIP in three starts at Citizens Bank Park and won them all. He faces a Padres lineup that has not only now been shutout three times in its last 10 games, but has also produced a total of only 23 hits in its last four games. Though Gibson struggled last time out against the Dodgers, that was on the road. He’s 2-0 lifetime vs. San Diego with a 2.84 ERA in three starts. 

Yu Darvish may have similar numbers overall compared to Gibson, but the Padres’ starter for Thursday has struggled on the road. You’re talking about a 7.91 ERA and 1.706 WHIP away from San Diego. Darvish does have a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts overall, just like Gibson does, but he was roughed up for five runs his last time out (on the road). Interesting to note that San Diego, despite having a 23-14 record, actually has a worse YTD run differential compared to the Padres. That tells me to “throw the records out the window” here as I’m banking on the rather dramatic home vs. road splits for Gibson and Darvish to continue. 9* Philadelphia

9* Under Yankees/Orioles (12:35 ET): Baltimore hopes to avoid what would be a four-game sweep here, at home, but that’s easier said than done as they’re up against a Yankees team that is 23-4 its last 27 games and off to one of the best starts in franchise history. Not only have the Orioles lost six straight times to the Yankees, they’ve also lost six in a row overall. Yesterday’s game, a 3-2 Yanks’ win, was the lowest scoring of this series and I figure we’re in store for another one like that here as we’ve got a battle of southpaws on the mound Thursday afternoon. Take the Under. 

This will be the third time this season that NY’s Jordan Montgomery is facing Baltimore. Montgomery may not have a win against the O’s, or any one else for that matter, but he does have a 3.06 ERA and 1.076 WHIP, so he’s probably “due.” The two starts vs. Baltimore have seen Montgomery yield just two runs and seven hits in 10 ⅔ IP. Both games stayed Under. Incredibly, all seven of Montgomery’s starts have stayed Under this year as he’s the one pitcher the Yanks can’t seem to score for. In six of the seven games, they’ve scored three runs or less. But the O’s should continue their struggles vs. lefties as the Yanks are allowing just 2.9 rpg in day games (opponents hitting .216). 

Bruce Zimmerman has inarguably been Baltimore’s best starter in 2022. He checks in with a 1.98 ERA and 1.16 WHIP and hopes the Yanks’ struggles to support Montgomery continue. They should as Zimmerman has yet to allow more than 2 ER in any start. Three times he hasn’t allowed ANY earned runs and two of those were against the Yankees! Save for Aaron Judge, most of the NY lineup hasn’t had much success against Zimmerman, or lefties in general, at least as of late. The Under is now 25-11-2 in all Orioles’ games this season, which includes 13-1-1 when they are up against a LH starter. This promises to be a good ol’ fashioned pitchers’ duel. 9* Under Yankees/Orioles

10* Under Mavs/Warriors (9:00 ET): Dallas stunned the basketball world with its 33-point Game 7 victory at Phoenix Sunday night. They allowed just 27 first half points and 50 through three quarters! So while this team has been notably better at home on the defensive end, it would be foolish to discount what they can do on the road. Golden State is also a team that’s underrated defensively. They allow only 103.1 PPG at home (2nd lowest, only trailing Dallas) and also finished the regular season #1 in defensive efficiency. Something else that must be considered when handicapping this series is that Dallas plays at an incredibly slow pace (last in tempo during the regular season). I’m on the Under in Game 1. 

Over its last five games vs. Memphis, the Warriors only averaged 109.8 points and that was with the 142-point explosion in Game 3. Dallas will easily be the best defensive team that the Warriors have faced this postseason as the Nuggets and Grizzlies ended up 15th and 12th in scoring defense. The Mavs allowed just 96.2 PPG the L5 games and 101.9 for the entire playoffs. This despite facing the team that tied for the regular season lead in offensive efficiency (Utah) and a top five scoring offense (Phoenix). Back to tempo, Dallas is playing even slower than they did in the regular season. Obviously, they’re going to look to slow these games vs. the Warriors to a “snail’s pace.”

While I expect the Dallas defense to shine tonight, do not look for the team to shoot 56.8% from the field again as it did in Game 7 vs. Phoenix. In three of its last four home games, Golden State has allowed fewer than 100 points. Luka Doncic is coming off a monster series (32.6 PPG), but I do not expect him to find that same kind of success here vs. the Warriors. Two of the four regular season matchups between these teams were low-scoring (208 or less pts scored) while the other two were high-scoring (228+). I expect something along the lines of the former. 10* Under Mavs/Warriors

8* Philadelphia (6:45 ET): The Phillies are the highest scoring team in the NL East and have a positive run differential (+15). Yet they still find themselves two games below .500 after being shut out (3-0) by the Padres last night. Bryce Harper was out of lineup last night while Kyle Schwarber was 0 for 4. But Jean Segura continued his hit streak (now 13 games) and I think the Phils are set to break out offensively today against Blake Snell, who is making his season debut for the Padres. San Diego is 23-13 but their run differential is only +19. Philly has scored more runs than they have this season. 

So when looking at the two teams, you’d probably make the argument that the Padres’ pitching has been better. But I do not anticipate that being the case this evening as Snell won’t be asked to go long in his first start of the season. There have been signs of regression from him the L2 seasons plus he was roughed up a bit in Spring Training. It was an adductor strain that sidelined him. The SD bullpen did throw four scoreless innings yesterday, but still has a 4.45 ERA on the road. Figure to see Nick Martinez relieving Snell today, which is good for the Phillies as Martinez has struggled over his 30 ⅔ innings of work. 

Philly was coming off a 5-2 road trip heading into Tuesday’s series opener. They probably should have finished the trip 6-1, but blew a chance at sweeping the Dodgers on Sunday by allowing three runs over the final two innings. Apparently, Monday’s off-day wasn’t enough to get over that. But I like them giving the baseball to Zack Wheeler in this revenge spot as he checks in with a 1.93 ERA and 0.943 WHIP at home. Wheeler did not get a decision in his start against the Dodgers, but the Phillies did end up winning the game 9-7. Before that, Wheeler didn’t allow any runs in his previous two starts - both of which were here at home. 8* Philadelphia

10* Over D’backs/Dodgers (4:10 ET): The Dodgers hit a bit of a “rough patch” there “for a second,” at one point losing four in a row and five of six. But they’ve clearly recovered, spurred on by a late rally against the Phillies on Sunday (I was on Dodger Blue that day) and now they’ve taken three straight from the division rival D’backs. They go for the series sweep this afternoon with Walker Buehler on the mound and there’s probably little doubt in anyone’s mind as to which side will win this matinee. But I don’t think there’s much value in backing LA in this spot, even on the run line. Instead, let’s turn to the total. 

Los Angeles is my #1 rated team in all of baseball right now as they are +81 in run differential. Only one other team is above +50 and that’s the Yankees (+74). No team has scored more runs this season than have the Dodgers (198) and over the L7 games they’ve averaged a whopping 7.0 runs. At home, they are averaging 5.9 rpg for the season. So the D’backs starter, Zach Davies, figures to find himself in the “deep water” here, especially with a 5.12 FIP on the road. Davies has actually pitched pretty well in 2022, but has not gone longer than five innings in any of his three road outings. 

All three games in this series have gone Over. In yesterday’s doubleheader, Arizona jumped out to leads of 3-0 and 2-0, but was obviously unable to hold either time. Still them scoring nine runs Tuesday is a positive sign for this play as is their ability to score on the Dodgers’ starters. Buehler is notoriously tough, but does have a 4.35 ERA and 1.645 WHIP at home through four starts. Those numbers coupled with a Dodgers’ bullpen that has been subpar of late lead me to believe the road team is going to score some runs here as well. Over the L7 games, the Dodgers are allowing an average of 6.6 runs! 10* Over D’backs/Dodgers

6* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): After surprisingly dropping the opener of this three-game series with the Tigers (3-2), the Rays bounced back with a convincing 8-1 last night. While Detroit has been better of late (had won four in a row going into Tuesday), three of the wins came at home vs. Baltimore and the team still has the worst overall record in the American League (13-24) and a -39 run differential. Tampa Bay, who won 100 games last season, has its eyes on another playoff appearance as they are 22-15. Today they are sending their best starter to the mound. It’s a big price but lay it. 

Drew Rasmussen already has a 6-1 team start record for the Rays to go along with a 2.67 ERA and 0.921 WHIP. The team has won each of his last five outings with Rasmussen allowing just five runs total. This looks to be a very favorable matchup for the right-hander. Not only are the Tigers hitting just .213 on the road, they are averaging only 2.3 runs in those games. That rpg average is last in all of baseball. The Detroit lineup has collected only 13 hits in the first two games of this series while drawing zero walks. This being a day game also works to the Rays’ advantage as they are 9-5 in the afternoon while the Tigers are 7-13. 

The Tampa Bay lineup has been pretty good against lefties so far, thus I expect them to get to Tigers’ starter Eduardo Rodriguez. It’s been a solid start to the year for Rodriguez, but he’s yet to face a lineup this effective vs. southpaws. TB has faced him many times before (Rodriguez used to pitch for Boston) and has hit .281 off him (with 12 HRs and an .861 OPS) in 13 matchups. Rodriguez has gone just 2-4 in those 13 starts with a 5.21 ERA. He’s not going to get much run support today and the Tigers are 0-5 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +175. 6* Tampa Bay

9* Atlanta (1:10 ET): This has (predictably) been a low-scoring series with the two teams exchanging shutout victories. Milwaukee took the first game 1-0, but then Atlanta returned the favor last night with a 3-0 win. Runs figure to be scarce once again this afternoon as the starting pitching matchup is Max Fried vs. Corbin Burnes. Both pitchers have sub-1.00 WHIPs and have looked dominant in the early going. However, I’m siding with Fried and the Braves on Getaway Day. Milwaukee should not be this large of a favorite in a game where they figure to not score many runs. (They’ve only scored 1 run in the series!) 

Looking at the individual numbers, you’d figure BOTH of these starting pitchers would have better won-loss records. Fried is 4-2 in seven starts (4-3 TSR) with a 3.14 ERA and 0.977 WHIP. He’s been dominant in two road starts, producing a 1.38 ERA and 0.462 WHIP. Fried has allowed 1 HR in four straight starts and is coming off his worst outing (allowed four runs to SD), but previous to that it had been four straight quality starts where he allowed only four runs total in 26 IP. One of those came against Milwaukee, whom he held to one run and four hits over 7 IP in a 3-2 win. 

Fried outdueled Burnes that day. Burnes allowed two runs in six innings, though one was unearned. Burnes has not allowed more than 2 ER in any start this year and has a 1.77 ERA/0.788 WHIP. But here is where things get tricky for the Brew Crew. Burnes has a 10.88 ERA in five career starts vs. Atlanta. He’s not going to get much run support here as Milwaukee’s only run this series came on a wild pitch and they are 4-8 vs. lefties. Not only did yday mark the fourth time the Brewers were shutout this season, but they have been held to three runs or fewer 16 times. Atlanta has the edge in the bullpen as well. 9* Atlanta