10* San Jose (9:05 ET):  In my analysis for Game 5, I said that I was surprised that the Sharks were not in position to close the series out (lost both Games 3 and 4 on the road). But I remained confident that they would regain control of the series and that's precisely what they did with commanding 5-1 win on home ice Saturday night.  Now, I'll call for them to close the series out here in Nashville as, after all, this was the league's best road team during the regular season (28-10-3) and they did win in Los Angeles three times in Round 1.

Now Nashville is a place where San Jose has struggled a bit the last few seasons. They've lost six of their last seven visits here, but that one win did come fairly recently (just last month). Also, Game 4 went to triple overtime, so that result easily could have gone either way, especially considering how the Sharks had the potential game-winner disallowed due to "goaltender interference."  They have outshot the Predators in four of the five games in this series and scored at least three times in regulation in every game but one (Game 3).  Game 5 was not close as the Sharks led 4-1 after two periods and really dominated "bell to bell."

I've said this before, but I think it's important to note that Nashville has only been a .500 team over the course of the season (now 47-47 overall). Over the course of their past 10 games, they have been held to two goals or fewer seven times.  Goaltender Pekka Rinne has been a bit of question mark this postseason as he could only stop 23 of 27 shots in the last game.  Again I'll mention that the Preds ranked outside the top 10 in both goals scored and allowed while San Jose was 4th and 10th in those respective categories. The Sharks also had the league's third best power play during the regular season and they have had the better special teams in this series, going 5 of 17 when on the man advantage compared to only 3 of 18 for Nashville.  I'm calling for the series to end rather emphatically!  10* San Jose

8* Toronto (8:05 ET):  After the Raptors let me down in both Games 1 and 2, I turned to the total for Game 3 and came away with a (narrow) win on the Under. And wouldn't you know it; Toronto also pulled off the outright win, 95-91 as 5.5-pt pups. That snapped a six-game ATS slide dating back to Game 4 of the Indiana series, but I still believe that unlike Round 1, there is some value (based off the regular season) on Toronto here. They were a better team than Miami over the course of 82 games and even during the six-game ATS losing streak, there were instances where they probably "should have" covered (like Gm 7 vs. Indiana).  All three games in this series have been decided by six points or less (two in overtime), so I'll take the points.

The big difference for Toronto in Game 3 clearly was the 33 points from Kyle Lowry, who previously had been struggling badly this postseason.  Consider that Lowry scored only 25 pts - combined - in the first two games of the series. He had been shooting just 31 percent over from the field in the playoffs, so hopefully that (Game 3) was a sign of things to come. I think that for a player of his caliber to endure such a shooting slump was a bit odd and he was eventually due to turn things around.  I hope the same can now be said for fellow backcourt mate DeMar DeRozan, who is just 15 of 41 from the floor the last two games.  By the way, the Raptors are now 17-9 ATS as underdogs this season, including 14 outright wins in the role.

The big news for Game 4 is that both teams will be w/o their respective big men - Hassan Whiteside for Miami and Jonas Valanciunas for Toronto - as both were injured and lost for the series in Game 3.  I think that the Whiteside injury matters more as don't forget the Heat are also w/o Chris Bosh.  His absence affects the team most on the defensive end as he led the league in blocked shots (3.7 per game), but Whiteside has also been a "double-double" guy in the playoffs (12 points, 10.9 rebounds) in the playoffs. Provided the starting backcourt of Lowry and DeRozan can both play a good game, the Raptors have more scoring options left than Miami, who was far too "Dwyane Wade-centric" in Game 3. 8* Toronto

5* Washington (7:05 ET):  Both of these teams experienced rather dreadful weekends, but the Nationals at least have the "built-in" excuse that they had to play the Cubs, at Wrigley no less.  It's the Tigers that are really reeling here as they've now dropped six in a row after being swept by both the Indians and Rangers. In fact, they've now been swept in three of their past five series!  The juice on the Nats is pretty high here, but deservingly so, as they are back in the Beltway and have Stephen Strasburg on the bump. They are a perfect 6-0 in Strasburg starts thus far including a 13-2 win his last time out.

Detroit has scored a grand total of 16 runs during its six-game skid. Therefore, losing the DH spot (NL park) in the lineup certainly does them no favors for this series. Strasburg has posted a 2.36 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his six starts and only once has he allowed more than two runs.  His KW ratio is a phenomenal 36-3 his L4 starts, which is what we've always expected to see from him. I'm a little surprised to find that Detroit is 5-1 in Interleague Play with four of those games coming in NL parks. But the offense was in a much better place back then compared to now. Washington is also 5-1 in Interleague Play this season and that included taking two of three in Kansas City last week, one of those wins coming in Strasburg's last start (allowed two runs & five hits in 6 IP).

Not only has Detroit not scored much during its losing streak, but they've also allowed 43 runs, an average of slightly more than seven per game.  Tonight's starter Anibal Sanchez figures to significantly add to that total as he comes in w/ a 7.20 ERA and 1.80 WHIP his L3 turns. Those numbers are a tad bit skewed due to one disastrous outing vs. Cleveland on April 23rd, but then he allowed four more runs to the Indians on Wednesday. In between, he managed to pick up a win over Oakland, but even then he issued a frightening number of walks (seven!).  It's not like the Nats' were hurting for offense against the Cubs as they totaled 14 runs and yday they took MLB's best team to 13 innings. Strasburg has not lost in his last six interleague starts.  5* Washington

10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET):  After the Spurs absolutely destroyed the Thunder in Game 1 (won 124-91), the last two games of the series have been nail-biters w/ OKC taking Game 2 in San Antonio (98-97 as 7.5-pt dogs) and then San Antonio regaining the homecourt advantage with a 100-96 win and cover in Game 3.  Personally, I’m a perfect 3-0 in this series having cashed the Over in Game 1, OKC outright in Gm 2 and the Under in Game 3.  Tonight for Game 4, I’m back on the Thunder, who I believe are a tremendous value here at home in what is basically a “must-win” spot.  This team is 34-11 SU at home this year (including playoffs) and only once have they dropped B2B home games all year (right after the All-Star Break). 

Oklahoma City only shot 41.5% from the floor in Game 3, yet still almost won. Both teams made 10 three-pointers, but the difference is that the Thunder attempted 30 to the Spurs’ 19. I have to imagine that we’ll see improvement here from the OKC offense, which shoots at a 47.5% clip for the season while averaging 109.8 points per game. Despite struggling offensively in two of the three games in this series, the Thunder still are third in the league in efficiency during the postseason (1.11 points per possession). They were #2 in efficiency during the regular season (trailing only Golden State). 

San Antonio was held to just 20 points inside the paint in Game 3, its lowest total for any playoff game in the last 15 years. They have raised their three-point percentage somewhat dramatically here in the postseason and I anticipate that percentage soon regressing to the mean.  Something else to keep in mind is that the Spurs have been held to an average of just 98.5 points the last two games after scorching the Thunder in Game 1.  When leading in a playoff series, Greg Popovich’s team is just 9-10 ATS the L3 seasons. Meanwhile, OKC is 5-2 ATS when down in a playoff series including the Game 2 outright win.  The Thunder know that if they lose here, the series is basically over, so I anticipate them responding accordingly. 10* Oklahoma City

THIS PLAY IS ON THE RAYS. Incorrectly Entered Above.

10* Tampa Bay (3:35 ET):   This is a great price on the Rays, who are underdogs despite beating the Angels each of the last two days.  There isn’t a single pitcher in the Halos rotation that dictates they should be favored on the money line in any situation, least of all the struggling Nick Tropeano, and as I’ve said before I’m just not very high on this ball club in 2016.  Tampa Bay has had its issues scoring runs so far this season, but they’ve allowed only four in this series and thus I have them finishing off the sweep.

Tropeano hasn’t only been bad, he’s been inefficient to boot. He’s thrown at least 89 pitches in every start this season despite never making it past the 5 1/3 inning mark.  His last time out, he gave up five runs in exactly five innings and while that was on only five hits, he also issued five walks.  He also allowed three home runs and keep in mind this was facing a very bad Milwaukee lineup. Tropeano now has a 1.633 WHIP for the season, which quite frankly is pretty lousy.  Speaking of lousy, the Angels are bottom five in the AL in run differential currently (-15) and have lost six of their last eight games overall.

The Rays counter with Matt Andriese, who will be making his 2016 debut. He definitely looked good down at Triple-A Indianapolis, most notably five days ago when he struck out 14 batters.  Starting him in this spot is a wise decision by Rays skipper Kevin Cash as the Angels really seem to struggle against right-handers more so than southpaws.  Their slash line vs. righties so far is .239/.303/.360 with all three categories down from where they’re at against lefties.  Andriese has big league experience having made eight starts last year (posted 3.57 ERA).  Tampa Bay has beaten the Angels head to head in five of the past seven meetings.  10* Tampa Bay

10* Cleveland (3:35 ET):  It would certainly appear as if this series is “all over but the shouting” at this point considering that not only can Atlanta not seem to beat Cleveland (10 straight losses to them!), but the manner in which Game 3 went down. Trailing by as many as 11 in the second half, the Cavs stormed back by outscoring the Hawks 36-17 in the fourth quarter, including a 22-5 run to end the game, as the three-point barrage continued (now 46 made the L2 games!) w/ Channing Frye of all players joining the fray this time (went 7 for 9 on Friday). Cleveland just seems to match up well vs. Atlanta and I’ll call for this series to end in a sweep w/ the favorite covering Game 4 with “room to spare.” Lay the points.

Atlanta is now 7-24 ATS its last 31 second round games.  That’s pretty indicative of where this franchise is “at” in this point in time and really been for much of its recent existence.  They simply cannot compete with Cleveland as every game in this series has been decided by double digits and down 0-3, I see little reason to expect the Hawks to come out and play hard this afternoon.   During the 10-game losing streak to Cleveland, they’ve lost by double digits eight times.  Consider that they made 16 three-pointers of their own on Friday and still lost the game by double digits.

Cleveland’s offensive efficiency has been breathtaking in the playoffs as they are averaging an amazing 1.18 points per possession. This is of course due to the incredible marksmanship we’ve seen from three-point range so far and while it’s probably unsustainable, Atlanta has yet to demonstrate any ability to stop it.  Also, there’s the fact that when a LeBron James team is up three games to none in a series (happened 10 times), never has that series lasted more than five games and eight of them have ended in sweeps. The Hawks are only 9-15 ATS as underdogs this year and with Cleveland outscoring its opponents by 12 points per 100 possessions this postseason, this line is simply too low.  10* Cleveland

8* Run Line Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Please note that this is a Run Line play only where I am LAYING the 1.5. Getting the Cubs basically at even money is a steal these days, even if you have to go -1.5.  They won again yday, 8-5, which was their sixth consecutive victory. They are now 23-6 with an astronomical run differential of +101.  That is the greatest run differential for any team in the World Series era (which goes back quite a ways!) That means they are outscoring opponents by an average of roughly 3.5 runs per game, which would work out to a YTD run differential of +564!  The money line is obviously far too high for my tastes, but I’m confident the Cubs win big again this afternoon and am willing to go the RL route. 

By the way, Jake Arrieta will be pitching today.  He’s 6-0 in his six starts and shown zero signs of regression from LY’s Cy Young campaign. He has a 0.84 ERA and 0.774 WHIP and has allowed just ONE run over his last four starts. The Cubs have outscored opponents 52-8 w/ Arrieta on the hill (that’s insane!), so you can see why I’m willing to play the run line here.  The narrowest margin of victory has been four runs and over the L3 starts (which includes his no-hitter) the combined margin of victory has been 27 runs!  Over his L19 starts, Arrieta is now 17-0 with a 0.66 ERA his L19 starts overall (19-0 TSR) and all of those have been quality.

If facing Arrieta wasn’t difficult enough, the Nationals must also deal with a Cubs offense that’s averaging 6.2 rpg to pace all of baseball.  The Cubs lineup has put eight runs on the board in each of the first two games of this series and considering how Tanner Roark has looked in both of his road starts, he’s likely in trouble here.  Roark has a 4.73 ERA on the road and that’s after only having to deal with Miami and Kansas City, two relatively weak lineups.  When speaking of the money line, this price range may not be unprecedented for the Nationals, but it is rare. Nevertheless, they have been a ML dog of +175 or higher six times the L3 seasons and lost all six games.  8* Run Line Chi Cubs (-1.5)

8* Toronto (1:07 ET):  Before losing yday to Clayton Kershaw, the Blue Jays had been coming on strong of late (had won each of the previous four days). Their +13 run differential is fifth best in the American League right now and indicative of the fact they probably should be better than just .500 for the year. I like their chances today w/ Marco Estrada on the bump as his overall numbers show he’s deserving of far better than a 2-3 team start record to this point. Furthermore, the Dodgers counter with Ross Stripling, who has been ineffective of late to say the least. Look for Toronto to win this Interleague series.

Estrada comes in with a 2.64 ERA and 1.174 WHIP overall.  Three of his five starts have come here at home where he’s been even better, posting a 1.83 ERA and 0.864 WHIP.  The team has won two of those three, including a 3-1 decision earlier in the week (Tuesday) where Estrada allowed just one run on two hits over 6 IP.  His strikeout number (3) wasn’t very good, but at least the number of walks were down (8 BB’s prev two starts).  It’s pretty remarkable that an offense as good as this one (led MLB in runs scored – by a mile – last year) has yet to score more than three runs in any Estrada start this year. I expect that to change after today and thus we should be in very good shape.

Stripling has a 6.58 ERA and 2.048 WHIP his L3 starts after allowing five runs on seven hits in just 4 2/3 innings his last time out.  He’s failed to make it past the 5 1/3 inning mark in each of those last three starts and what’s really troubling about that is the fact he’s gotten to face some of the weakest lineups in the game (SD, Miami and Atlanta) during that time. Prior to winning yday, the Dodgers had won just 2 of their previous 10 games.  Starting rotation depth was a major problem for Los Angeles last season as Kershaw and Zack Greinke had to carry them.  Greinke is now gone and Kershaw can’t pitch every day. For what it’s worth, the Blue Jays are a perfect 5-0 on Sundays this year.  8* Toronto

8* San Jose (10:05 ET):  I have to say that I anticipated the Sharks being in a position to put away the Predators here.  Up two games to one in the series, I took them in Game 4 only to see them ultimately come up short in a triple overtime heartbreaker. It’s really no consolation, but both games in Nashville saw San Jose finish w/ a slight edge in shots on goal.  That’s typically a reliable indicator of who is really controlling the series and considering that I thought this was the easiest series call (Sharks) of the four conference semifinals, I’m sticking w/ San Jose Sunday in Game 5 where they return to “The Tank.” 

San Jose’s home vs. road dichotomy was very strange during the regular season.  They actually finished with a losing record at home despite outscoring opponents here, not to mention outshooting them by a wide margin (32.6 to 25.5 YTD).  So the fact that they have been able to turn things around here in the postseason (3-1) really isn’t all that surprising to me.  Meanwhile, they finished with the league’s best road record despite facing a disparity in shots on goal.  So, after winning all three games in LA during the first round, they were probably “due” to drop a couple like they did in Nashville in Games 3 and 4. 

The Predators are a very average team.  Going into Game 4, their record for the entire year was just .500. I have my questions about goalie Pekka Rinne on the road (.903 save percentage).  He did come up big in Game 4 w/ 44 saves, but remember that the home team has won every game in this series and the Preds are five games below .500 on the road this year.  Something else to consider is that while the Sharks ranked in the top 10 in both goals scored and allowed during the regular season, the Preds were outside the top ten in both categories.  The Sharks are simply the better team here and back at home, I expect them to respond in kind.  8* San Jose

8* Golden State (8:35 ET): For the record, it appears as if Steph Curry will not be making his return the court here despite the fact that there has been a three-day break in the series. No matter, the Warriors have already beaten the Blazers twice by double digits. While it’s true that those games did take place in Oakland, the fact is Portland simply is not good enough to compete even at home.  Golden State is now 6-1 ATS in the playoffs, outscoring teams by 16.5 points per game all while receiving minimal contributions from Curry.  This is a good value considering it will only be the third time all season that Golden State has been asked to lay three points or less on the road.

The Warriors defense is vastly underrated. In fact, they lead all team in the playoffs in terms of efficiency, giving up just 92.1 points per 100 possessions.   In the regular season, they ranked fourth in the league in defensive efficiency.  In this series, Portland’s shooting improved a little bit from Game 1 to Game 2, but they wound up scoring fewer points anyway.  Though Blazers fans will attempt to “hang their hat” on the fact that they dealt the Warriors a rare loss here during the regular season, the bottom line is they are just 3-10 ATS the L13 meetings. Also, speaking of efficiency, Portland is being outscored by 4.5 points per 100 possessions in the postseason. Toronto is the only other team remaining in the playoffs that can claim to have a negative efficiency rating.

Game 2 saw Portland take a double-digit lead in the first half and they still ended up losing the game by double digits.  In fact, they led by 11 entering the fourth quarter. This is an ominous sign.  The team is 1-6 ATS in the second round of the playoffs the last two years, which is reminiscent of Atlanta and indicative of where those two particular franchises are at.  Remember that the Blazers got to the second round in large part because of the massive amount of injuries suffered by the Clippers.  Only 3-8 ATS their last 11 games overall, the Blazers have lost four times in the playoffs by double digits already.  They are simply not in the Warriors’ class.  8* Golden State

8* Washington (7:15 ET):  This is must-win territory for the Capitals, who have lost the last three games and now face elimination.  Interestingly, the road team has held the edge in shots on goal in three of the four games, which also means that only once has the team with the edge in shots actually won. (That was Pittsburgh in Gm 2).  I find it hard to believe that the Caps will go this “quietly into the night” as this was the President’s Trophy winner after all (led the league in points).  History may not be on their side, but talent is and I believe that they’ll stay alive for at least another game. 

Only one time all season has Washington lost three consecutive games. They have never lost four straight. So, in that regard, history is on their side.  I’ve been a little disappointed in this series w/ the play of goaltender Braden Holtby, who has only a .914 save percentage and has pretty clearly been outplayed by counterpart Matt Murray.  But Holtby still has a .945 save percentage in the playoffs and I expect him to come up big here.  At the same time, I’m not that sure that anyone should become a long-term believer in Murray. With Holtby in between the pipes, the Caps are 29-9 SU on home ice this year.

Special teams have been dominated by the respective penalty killing units in this series. Washington hasn’t allowed a single power play goal (36 for 37 overall in the playoffs) while Pittsburgh has allowed just one. That’s really no surprise considering both PK’s ranked in the top five in the league during the regular season. But if one power play is “due” to turn it around, it would be Washington’s, which ranked 5th in the regular season (Pittsburgh was only 16th).  It’s not like the Penguins have dominated this series by the way; all four games have been decided by exactly one goal.  I just can’t see this series coming to a close in the Nation’s Capital. 8* Washington

6* Chi White Sox (7:10 ET):  The White Sox, as expected, took care of business last night against the sorry Twins.  They won the season opener, 10-4, which means they’re now a perfect 4-0 this season against their division rival.  This series now shapes up as a battle of teams with the best and worst run differentials in the American League (it goes w/o saying “who’s who”), so it’s a complete mismatch already and with Chris Sale toeing the rubber for the home team, I actually think the ML for today’s game is absurdly low. Certainly, the linesmakers opened it way too low as it’s been pounded by just about everybody since. This is one instance where I certainly am willing to go along with the majority.

Sale has already established himself as the early front runner from the AL Cy Young award.  Through six starts, he’s a perfect 6-0 and he’s posted an ERA of 1.66 and a WHIP of 0.808.  Last time out was actually his shortest start of the season (just 5 1/3 IP) as he did experience some control issues (four walks), but I would not be the least bit concerned even though the Twins have surprisingly had his number in the past. Sale still allowed only the one run vs. Baltimore on Sunday & over his last four starts, he’s given up just two runs total – in 29 1/3 innings of work. 

The Twins are just 4-16 off a loss this year and they come into tonight off a pair of bad ones, first 16-4 at Houston and then 10-4 last night. That drops them to just 2-13 on the road as the only team with a worse run differential and record is Atlanta.  As if facing Sale wasn’t bad enough, the Twins will also then have to deal with a White Sox bullpen which is currently leading all of MLB. Overall, Chicago pitchers have an absurd 0.35 ERA in the seventh inning or later when leading and are a perfect 20-0.  Minnesota was a lucky team last year, but clearly regressing. Meanwhile, it appears as if this could turn into a special season on both sides of the Windy City.  6* Chi White Sox

10* Under Raptors/Heat (5:05 ET):  Even with the benefit of overtime, Game 2 of this series still stayed Under the total.  Game 1 needed overtime to just barely go Over the total. At the end of regulation, there has been 180 and 172 total points scored respectively.  Thus, the number for Game 3 still looks far too high, particularly considering the way Toronto’s top players continue to shoot the ball.  Furthermore, the Under has clearly been the way to go with both teams lately as Toronto is 8-2 Under its last 10 games and Miami is 6-1 Under its last seven games.  Take the Under here.

In the playoffs, the Raptors are averaging only 93.1 PPG.  They’ve been right on that average the last five games. By now, I’m sure you know what ills them.  Their top two scorers during the regular season – Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan – have been downright dreadful.  That duo has combined to shoot a woeful 32.5% from the field.  Lowry in particular has been awful. He’s shooting just 37.5% in the paint and is 9 for 57 from three-point range.  As a team, Toronto’s FG% is only 40.3 and that includes 27.3 from three-point range.  They are dead last among all remaining playoff teams in offensive efficiency.

Miami was one of the better defensive teams in the league during the regular season (7th).   That’s the driving force behind the fact that the Under is 53-37 in all of their games this season.  So far, they are giving up just 91.6 PPG in the playoffs and over the last five games, they are below that number.  Not to be outdone, Toronto is allowing only 94.4 PPG in the playoffs. The Under is 5-1 for them when they are a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points.  The overwhelming majority of tickets written on the total of this game (as of Friday night) are on the Over, yet the number has actually come down a point. That’s something certainly to consider.  10* Under Raptors/Heat

8* San Francisco (4:05 ET):   This season, there is a giant chasm that exists between the “have’s” and “have not’s” in the National League. It’s something that I’ve previously brought to the attention of my regular readers/clients and we can take advantage of it again today. Basically, coming into the year there were seven supposed playoff contenders (Nats, Mets, Cubs, Pirates, Cards, Dodgers and Giants). Everyone else, save for maybe Miami and Arizona, was projected to be pretty bad. Until further notice, I’m going to look to exploit this disparity any time I can.  The Giants beat the Rockies pretty easily last night and I see no reason why they won’t do the same here again Saturday afternoon.

Colorado scored the game’s first four runs yday, but after that it was all Giants, including a quick answer of three runs of their own in the bottom of the second.  That was a strong bounce back after the rather shocking result Thursday provided, that being a 17-7 Colorado victory here at AT&T Park. I fully expect the home team to control the remainder of this series as you have to remember that the Rockies are traditionally a dreadful road team, one that has gone a woeful 63-117 since the start of the 2014 season. The fact they’ve started 2016 by winning 10 of their first 17 away from hitter-friendly Coors Field is not something that I’m “buying into.”  

Johnny Cueto gives his team a significant advantage coming into this afternoon’s game.  I say that even though he struggled his last time out (had one bad inning), against his former team, the Reds. But the Giants still won the game and are now 5-1 in Cueto starts. Something to keep in mind is that aside from two innings that didn’t go his way, Cueto has allowed only six runs in 40 1/3 IP this year. Aside from the somewhat disastrous third inning vs. Cincinnati, he was actually quite good as he got 15 batters to swing and miss and induced seven groundouts. He’s 4-2 in eight career starts vs. the Rockies.  Meanwhile, I wouldn’t be very comfortable in backing Jonathan Gray, who is today’s starter for Colorado, as he’s been hit up pretty hard despite impressive looking strikeout numbers in three starts (7.98 ERA, 1.636 WHIP).  8* San Francisco

10* Under Spurs/Thunder (9:35 ET):  Man, it seems like forever ago that these teams last played, doesn't it? In case you forgot, the Thunder took Game 2 outright, 98-97 as 7.5-pt underdogs, handing the Spurs just their second home loss of the season (Warriors were the only other team to do it).  The game stayed Under as well, albeit just barely.  Then again, we were "due" for a low-scoring game after the Spurs shot better than 60% in Game 1 and scored 124 points.  After the long layoff between games, I envision another low-scoring affair taking place tonight, so I'm on the Under.

San Antonio was of course the #1 defensive team in the league during the regular season.  Off a loss, they are giving up an average of just 90.4 PPG.  They've maintained a strong defensive rating in the playoffs (#2 in efficiency), allowing just 92.9 points per 100 possessions and 85.7 points per game.  Granted, defending Oklahoma City is a lot tougher than defending what was a injury-riddled Memphis squad, but still, the Thunder failed to break 100 points in either of the first two games. 

OKC is just 11 for 42 from three-point range in the series, which won't cut it, and San Antonio allows just 32.9% shooting from three-point range for the season.  Just because they are back home does not necessarily mean the Thunder will score more as remember they were held to only 84 points by Dallas in one of the three home games in Round 1.  The Under is a perfect 3-0 this season for them, at home, when the total is 200 to 204.5.   The Under is also 24-17 in all road games for San Antonio this year. 10* Under Spurs/Thunder

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET):  The Tribe comes into this series riding high following their second sweep of Detroit this season. They are now a game above .500 and their +18 run differential (4th best in the American League) indicates that they probably should have won even more games to this point. Meanwhile, division rival Kansas City is also a game above .500, but they have been outscored by 13 runs thus far, a major difference. The defending World Series Champs simply have not been playing good baseball of late as they've dropped seven of nine and the last time we saw them (Wednesday), they were on the wrong end of a 13-2 beatdown.  Truth be told, the Royals' early-season struggles are not a surprise as I expected them to regress thsi season.

What is a bit of a surprise is the fact that KC is among the bottom five in all of MLB when it comes to runs scored.  They've averaged just 2.1 rpg over the last seven days. Typically, this had been a great on base percentage team for manager Ned Yost, but they're way down in that department this season (.301) and they have five regulars that are below that team OBP average. All this is not a good sign when getting set to face the Indians' Danny Salazar, who has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season and carries a 0.967 WHIP into tonight's contest.  Opponents are batting just .139 against him so far, which is the lowest average in all of MLB! 

Pitching has also been a problem of late for the Royals as they've given up a total of 19 runs the last two games.  Tonight's starter, Yordano Ventura, allowed five runs in just four innings his last time out and certainly didn't help himself by issuing six walks either.  The offense was shutout in that game anway, one of three times that's happened over the L6 games, by the way.  Cleveland is just the better team at this point, even more so than the money line would seem to indicate.  Over the L3 seasons, the Royals are just 13-23 as ML road dogs of +125 to +150, including 0-3 this year. 8* Cleveland

8* Detroit (7:10 ET):  The Tigers are just happy to have escaped Cleveland where they were swept for a second time by the division rival Indians this season. They actually came into that last series on a five-game win streak, which I think is important to remember when assessing the team. The next opponent, Texas, also has lost its last three games - all up in Toronto including yday when they were bludgeoned to the tune of 12-2.  With neither team in fine form coming into this series opener, I instead turn to the starting pitching matchup and while the Rangers may have Cole Hamels going, Detroit counters with the red-hot Jordan Zimmerman, who has been among the best pitchers in all of baseball to this point.

Zimmerman has won all five starts and has done so while posting a 0.55 ERA and 1.061 WHIP. Only two pitchers in history have started a season with a lower ERA in their first five starts as he's allowed just four runs in 33 IP and two of them were unearned.  His YTD KW rate might not be outstanding, but it was 7-0 in his last start.  Texas has been held to a total of eight runs in its last four games, so Zimmerman is the last pitcher they probably want to see right now.  This will be the first time that a lot of the Rangers hitters have even seen him.

Hamels has remained successful of late (2-1 TSR L3 starts) in spite of a couple bad outings, one of them coming his last time out.  The Rangers lost that one, 9-6 to the Angels, as Hamels allowed four runs in 5 IP and also walked four batters.  His 1.647 WHIP over his last three starts is simply not good and the margin for error here facing Zimmerman is razor thin.  Texas is just 5-9 on the road thus far and like Detroit saw their run differential take a major hit in the last series.  Homefield and Zimmerman are the difference makers in this one. 8* Detroit

8* Atlanta (7:05 ET):  The Hawks are coming off an absolutely humiliating loss in Game 2 as they allowed Cleveland to make a NBA-record 25 three-pointers and wound up trailing by more than 40 points at one juncture.  The 123-98 final score from Wednesday night doesn't even begin to tell the whole story as the Cavs led 35-20 after the first quarter and Atlanta never got any closer.  Nothing is even for certain, but I'm pretty confident that Cleveland will not shoot the ball as well tonight (how could they?) as they were 55.6% from three-point range on 45 attempts.  The scene does shift to Atlanta now and I feel the home team is a solid value, taking points, off a blowout loss.

Going back to LY's Eastern Conference Finals, the Hawks have now lost to the Cavs nine consecutive times. At some point, this streak has to come to an end.  What's really remarkable about Cleveland's offensive performance from the other night is that Atlanta ranked second in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season (trailing only San Antonio).  The Cavs are now averaging an insane 1.18 points per possession in the playoffs, a number that I expect to start coming down moving forward. Consider that they are currently averaging six more points per 100 possessions than the Warriors, Thunder and Spurs.   Here at home, the Hawks allow just 96.8 points per game.

Atlanta's shooting has been pretty bad during the playoffs (41.8%), but I expect that number to start going up.  When it comes to defensive efficiency, Cleveland is actually the worst team left in the field as even after Game 2, they are allowing 7.4 more points per 100 possessions than is Atlanta. The Hawks are a good home team (30-14 straight up) and they are outscoring visitors by an average of 6.6 PPG this year. They won all three first round home games, two of them by double digits and in the third led by as many as 19 points.  8* Atlanta

10* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET):  I was on the Lightning as they came in and took Game 3, 5-4 in overtime.  For the third time in the series, they outshot the Islanders, though not as severe as they had in the first two games.  But still they put 41 shots on goal (compared to 39 allowed) and have now outshot the Isles 108-81 for the series. Going back to the first round, the Isles have been giving up some alarming shot totals, which is something I continue to harp on.  Tuesday marked the fourth time in nine playoff games that they allowed 41 or more.

Something else to keep in mind is that the Isles were hardly dominant in the first round series vs. Florida as three of their four wins came in overtime, two of them double OT affairs. They had only 42 shots on goal the first two games, so while Game 3 may have been a step in the right direction, I don't see Lightning goaltender Ben Bishop allowing four goals again like he did Tuesday night.  I still feel Bishop gives his team a huge edge between the pipes over the Isles w/ Thomas Greiss, who has allowed nine total goals in ths series.

Something else to consider is that TB is 15-9 this season after scoring four or more goals in their previous game.  Eight of the Lightning's goals in this series have come at even strength, a very positive sign after some of their struggles in Round 1 vs. Detroit.  As I said in my analysis for Game 3, the team has seen a number of players "step up," namely Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov and Jonathan Drouin.  The play of Victor Hedman has also been a key, particularly when it comes to keeping Islanders' captain John Tavares in check.  10* Tampa Bay

9* Washington (2:20 ET): Given their current record (21-6) and otherworldly run differential (+96), betting against the Cubs right now might seem like a bad idea.  However, as this afternoon's money line indicates, this figures to be one of their stiffest tests in some time as Washington (#2 in MLB in run differential) is in town and has Max Scherzer going on the bump.  In four road starts so far, Scherzer has a 0.962 WHIP and he is coming off an outing where he tossed seven scoreless innings of four-hit ball (9-0 KW ratio) at St. Louis.  Also, the Cubs have not exactly "cleaned up" in day games this year as they're record is just 6-4. The Nats are the ones being undervalued here.

Washington was limited to only three hits last night and scored both of its runs in the ninth inning.  That's a far cry from what we saw from this offense on Wednesday when they pounded out 16 hits in a 13-2 dismantling of the Royals.  Here they face John Lackey, who has a subpar 4.32 ERA, although I concede that his WHIP (1.110) indicates that he's probably pitched better than that. Still though, the Cubs have lost each of Lackey's last two starts and those games were against Atlanta and Cincinnati, arguably the two weakest teams in all of baseball. The lineup he faces today is averaging 5.1 rpg on the road and for all the talk about the Cubs incredible start, the Nats are only 2.5 games behind them in the standings.

Scherzer has a 1.42 ERA against the Cubs in three career starts, all of them coming here at Wrigley. One key to today's game is that the Cubs hottest hitter, Ben Zobrist, is just 3 for 20 all-time against him.  Washington is also 8-4 in day games so far.  That's a better mark than the Cubs, who at some point will see their record setting pace of outscoring opponents slow down. Interestingly enough, Chicago is just 4-3 this season when coming into a game on a three-game win streak.  They are due to drop one and this is a great price on the usually heavily favored Scherzer (was -170 or higher on the ML each of his first five starts). 9* Washington

8* NY Mets (10:10 ET):  I will continue to harp on the massive chasm that exists between the have's and have not's in the National League. This year's Senior Circuit can essentially be broken down into two very distinct groups. One is the seven legit playoff contenders (Nats, Mets, Cubs, Cards, Pirates, Dodgers and Giants).   The second group is everybody else. Maybe one team from the also-ran group will eventually "step up," but I highly doubt it's going to be the lowly Padres, a team that carries with it very little promise for the future.  The Mets, meanwhile, have won 8 of 10 and have the third best run differential in baseball. This series, like so many we're going to see in the NL this year, shapes up as a mismatch.

Jacob DeGrom starting tonight for the Mets only serves to further tilt things in his team's favor. In three starts thus far, he has a 1.02 ERA and 1.075 WHIP.  The Mets have also won all three games.  Last time out, four walks played a role in him allowing a season-high three runs, all unearned.  The first two starts were against two of those bad teams that the NL has to offer, Atlanta and Philadelphia, and he allowed only 1 ER to both.  DeGrom has pitched once before here at Petco Park (which is typically pitcher-friendly) and he delivered eight scoreless innings of two-hit ball (8-0 KW ratio).  San Diego has already been shut out eight times this season, easily the most times in all of baseball, including a 2-0 loss yday when they were held to three hits. In fact, no other team has been shut out more than four times!

The Mets are also swinging the bats quite well of late w/ 89 runs scored during a 13-3 stretch where they've managed to win six consecutive series. This combination of hot hitting and outstanding starting pitching makes this a difficult team to beat, especially when the opponent is sending out a hurler the likes of Colin Rea, who has a 1.557 WHIP thus far.  The Mets offense was one of the best in baseball last year in runs scored per game on the road and they've continued that trend into 2016 as they are averaging a healthy 5.4 runs per game away from Citi Field.  8* NY Mets

9* San Jose (9:05 ET): To me, when it came to projecting a series winner, this was the easiest call of the four Conference semifinals. Sure enough, the Sharks jumped out to a 2-0 series lead with a pair of wins at home. I was on them in Game 2, but then they did drop Game 3 (didn't play that one) 4-1 here in Nashville.  Still though, I'm confident in calling for a bounce back performance as San Jose was the best road team in the league during the regular season (incredible 28-10-3 record!) and remember they also won all three games in Los Angeles back in Round 1. Also, despite losing Game 3, the Sharks finished with a slight edge in shots on goal (27-25).  I like them to take Game 4.

Special teams were a real key for the Preds Tuesday night. They came into Game 3 just 2 for 31 on the power play in the playoffs, but doubled their number of goals in that situation with a 2 for 5 performance. They also killed off all four Sharks' power plays in Game 3 after killing off only 12 of 18 PP's previously.  If I'm a Nashville fan, I'd also be a bit concerned over the team's 9-15 record this year when coming off a multi-goal victory.  Remember that this is just a .500 team overall this season.  They'd dropped five of seven before taking Game 3.

San Jose is 29-13 in revenge situations this year.  They are also 15-7 SU off a loss by 2+ goals.  Game 4's have historically been unkind to Nashville as they are 1-6 SU all-time in this spot, including five straight losses here on home ice. Remember they lost Game 4 of their first round series, 4-1 to Anaheim, here at home. San Jose, meanwhile, has won three of its last four Game 4's including the one in the series w/ the Kings.  Note that Nashville is actually being outscored by one-half goal per game in the playoffs.  San Jose is +0.7 gpg.  9* San Jose

10* Toronto (8:05 ET):  Though they finally made it out of the first round (first time since '01!), this has hardly been a great postseason for the Raptors. They've been outscored by 4.5 points per 100 possessions, tying Portland for the worst such mark among teams still playing. For a second time in as many series, they dropped Game 1 at home, this time losing in overtime to the Heat, 102-96, but only after a miraculous Kyle Lowry half-court heave went in at the end of regulation. That's actually a lot better than how they performed in Game 1 of the Indiana series where they lost by 10 points. Of course, what I'm going to point to here is the fact they came back to win Game 2 against the Pacers by double digits. It'll be a case of "deja vu all over again" tonight. Lay the short number.

It's pretty amazing that Lowry hit that half-court shot considering how he's shot the ball so far in the postseason. He was just 3 for 13 from the floor in Game 1, including 1 of 6 from three-point range, dropping his overall shooting percentage to a rather abysmal 30.6% in the playoffs. That's the worst postseason shooting percentage by any NBA player w/ at least 50 attempts - ever - according to the Elias Sports Bureau.  I feel bad for Lowry because he's simply a much better player than this. Of course, DeMar DeRozan hasn't helped matters by shooting just 33 percent himself. Still, despite their top two scorers struggling so mightily, Toronto has gotten to this point. They led Game 1 at halftime, were up big in Game 7 against Indiana (before blowing the cover) and even led at half in an eventual Game 6 loss to the Pacers.  Provided Lowry and DeRozan turn things around, the Raptors should be able to make a series of this.

The key for Miami in Game 1 was that they shot 72.7% from three-point range (8 of 11) while Toronto was 23.8% (5 of 21).  I am envisioning a little "regression to the mean" here for the Heat, who are 3-7 SU and ATS this season when on a three-game win streak. Meanwhile, there's only one way to go for the Raptors and it's "up" as during this 0-5 ATS streak of theirs, they're averaging only 90.6 PPG, which is well below their season average. Here at home, they remain +5.9 PPG for the year while Miami's YTD scoring average on the road is -2.0 PPG.  10* Toronto

10* Over Stars/Blues (8:05 ET): For the first time this postseason, Dallas finds itself behind in a series as they've now dropped B2B games to St. Louis, including an ugly looking 6-1 decision Tuesday night in Game 3.  Though they finished as the West's top seed, there was one legit concern with this Stars team and it's the goals allowed side of the ledger. They ranked just 19th in that department during the regular season, which was the lowest ranking for ANY playoff team. Over the last five games, they are allowing a rather ghastly 4.0 goals per game, giving up that many four times.  Of course, there also is the fact that this team did lead the league in scoring during the regular season. They've maintained a solid clip over the L5 games (3.0 gpg) and thus the Over is 4-1 in those games. This game will follow suit. Take the Over.

St. Louis has scored 10 times in the last two games and over its last eight games, they've scored three goals or more seven times. Game 1 of this series (when I took Dallas and won) was the exception, but in the big picture, scoring against the Stars has not been a problem this year. Going back to the final regular season meeting, they have scored 4, 5 and 6 goals in three of four matchups.  The Over is a perfect 3-0 for them in these playoffs when they are leading the series. Note that they are coming off a series-high 39 shots in Game 3.  Dallas has some goaltending issues right now as Kari Lehtonen has an .882 save percentage his L4 starts while Antii Niemi is at .872.  Those kind of numbers simply won't get the job done this time of year.

At the other end of the ice, the Blues have been giving up a fair number of shots in this series. In fact, they're allowing (34.2) more than they're taking, which is usually not a good sign.  The Over is 14-4 for the Stars this season when they are off a loss by two more goals. It's also 16-6 if they allowed 4+ goals the previous game and 4-1 in road games when the O/U line is 5.0.  So, the trends are definitely on our side here.  With seven total goals scored in each of the last two meetings, the value is definitely on the Over. 10* Over Stars/Blues

8* St. Louis (1:40 ET):  It has been quite the frustrating season, thus far, for the Redbirds.  Even though their run differential of +41 is the fourth best in the sport, the club finds itself at just 14-14 in the standings, which is positively mediocre. Might this be the year that "lady luck" simply isn't on St. Louis' side? Maybe, but I'm certainly not going to start writing them off in May, especially when they're paired up against the overachieving Phillies, who are 16-12 on the season yet have a run differential of -23. I specifically cited the respective run differentials as a reason to play the Cardinals in Monday's series opener, which they won, and since then the teams have exchanged one-run victories. I liked the Cards to win this series before it started and I haven't changed my mind.

Last night, it was St. Louis rallying back for a much-needed 5-4 victory. They scored two runs in the bottom of the ninth w/ Matt Holliday providing the walk-off heroics. The previous day had seen them lose 1-0 after they took the series opener (the game I played) in dominant fashion, 10-3.  Note that the Phillies' last four victories have all come by one run margins. When I refer to them as "lucky," I'm speaking of all these close wins, of which they have NINE (easily the most one-run victories in all of MLB) against just three losses.  Clearly, if you see a team w/ a 16-12 record, you wouldn't expect them to have been outscored by 23 runs on the season. But that's where we're at with the Phillies right now and I am of the belief that their "luck" will start to run out moving forward. We saw some of that just last night!

As for this afternoon's pitching matchup, I like the numbers that I see from Cards lefty Jaime Garcia, who has a 2.66 ERA and a 0.866 WHIP in three starts at Busch Stadium.  His last couple starts have been less than ideal, but I see him bouncing back here against a lineup which is hitting just .217 its last seven games. The Phils counter w/ Jerad Eickhoff, who really has had only the one bad start, but that happened to be his last one on the road as he gave up seven runs in just 5 1/3 IP and that was against Milwaukee.  Forget the records, St. Louis is the much better team here. 8* St. Louis

8* Atlanta (8:05 ET):  Though they fell behind by as many as 18 in the second half of Game 1, the Hawks were by no means "blown out" as they actually stormed back to take the lead in the fourth quarter, albeit by only a point.  But a win of any kind will do us just fine here as would a close game.  The final margin may have been 11 points in Monday's series opener, but that was with Atlanta shooting only 37.9% from the floor, including 11 of 34 from three-point range (missed many wide-open looks). I can't imagine them shooting that poorly again, thus the points look attractive here in Game 2 as Atlanta certainly is "due" to beat Cleveland at least once, aren't they?

The Cavs are the only team that has yet to lose a game in the playoffs, but none of their five wins have really come in a blowout fashion.  They did beat Detroit by 17 in Game 2 of their first round series, but even that was just a two-point game at halftime. They also made 20 three-pointers, an NBA record at the time (which Golden State broke just a few days later), in that one. Cleveland's over-reliance on the three-pointer is a little bit troubling, though it's worked for them thus far. But there's really no denying that this team has generally been overpriced for most of this season as they're only 34-43 ATS when laying points, not to mention 10-19 ATS off three consecutive victories and 14-20 ATS off a double digit win.

In my own personal power rankings, Atlanta ended up grading out as the second best team in the Eastern Conference by season's end (Cleveland was obviously #1).   The gap between them and the Cavs was not as great as the linesmakers seem to think it is, so the value here is on the dog.  Maybe Dennis Schroeder doesn't match his 27 pts for Game 1, but the trio of Jeff Teague, Paul Milsap and Al Horford basically have to improve after going a combined 12 of 41.  Cleveland has its issues defensively, namely that Kyrie Irving can't stay in front of anybody.  Kevin Love also appeared to hurt his shoulder late in Game 1, which is a bit of an ominous sign.  The Hawks did everything right in Game 1, except make shots, and I anticipate they'll make more of those in Game 2. 8* Atlanta

10* Under Capitals/Penguins (8:05 ET):  I went with the Under in Game 2 (cashed it!) and after Game 3 saw a push on the 5-goal total, I'm going "back to the well" here.  That Game 3 total only pushed because of a relatively meaningless goal by the Caps in the final minute of the third period.  They were blanked for the first 42 minutes of the game and have managed only six goals in this series. They did have 49 shots in Game 3, which is a good sign, but scoring remains an issue as going back to the Flyers series this is a team that has been held to three goals or less in regulation in each of its last six games.  Six times in these playoffs, the Caps have been been held to two goals or fewer.  Take the Under.

Matt Murray clearly has the hot hand for Pittsburgh as the rookie goaltender stopped 47 of 49 shots on Monday and now has a .944 save percentage in the postseason.  That's a troubling sign for Washington, who by the way has scored only 11 even strength goals in regulation this entire postseason!  When I played the Under in Game 2, I discussed how strong both teams' penalty killing units are and sure enough the Pens have held the Caps to 1 for 10 on the power play so far. (Pittsburgh's PK unit ranked 5th in the reg season at 84.4%).  I also touched on how Washington's PP numbers from Round 1 were a little overrated as five of their eight goals in that Flyers series came in one game. Since that time, they are just 1 for their last 20 when on the man advantage. 

The Caps still have Braden Holtby between the pipes and his 0.84 GAA and .968 save percentage from Round 1 seemed to indicate that he would have the edge over Murray in this series.  That actually has not been the case so far, but Holtby has been solid still, stopping 95 of 103 Penguins shot attempts.  Washington also had a strong penalty killing unit during the reg season (ranked 3rd at 85.1%) and they've been even stronger in the playoffs, going 32 of 33!  This has been a really hard-hitting series so far with multiple players earning suspensions and I just don't see many high-scoring games moving forward, especially considering the strong goaltending we're likely to see from both sides. 10* Under Capitals/Penguins

8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET):  Before losing last night, the Rays had won seven straight times against the National League, which was the longest active win streak in Interleague Play. With this being just a short two-game series, the home team has to take advantage of the fact that they avoid both studs in the Dodgers rotation - Clayton Kershaw and Kenta Maeda.  I will call for them to salvage a split as LA may have scored 10 runs last night, but that was only after scoring all of 12 the previous seven games combined. I like what I've seen thus far from Rays starter Drew Smyly, despite his 2-3 team start record, as his WHIP is an eye-popping 0.692! That's the best WHIP in all of baseball among qualifiers!  Take the Rays.

It's pretty astounding that a pitcher could be leading all of baseball in WHIP, yet have a losing team start record.  Yet that's where we're at w/ Smyly right now. His first start of the season, admittedly, was not good. But he's allowed three or fewer hits in three of his last four starts while posting a 36-5 KW ratio.  Last time out, Smyly was a bit of a hard-luck loser as he gave up just two runs on two hits (both solo HR's) in 6 IP.   Keep in mind that he had not allowed any home runs in his previous three starts. Still though, despite the pair of mistakes, 63 of his 99 pitches went for strikes and 15 of those were swings and misses. He'd allowed just one run and seven hits (in 15 IP) his two starts prior, both of which did result in Tampa Bay victories.

Smyly will obviously need some run support and I anticipate the Rays offense "turning a corner" tonight after going a woeful 5 of 41 with RISP the L6 games.  Scoring five times yday was a "step in the right direction" and they should be able to build off that tonight against Alex Wood, who has an 8.36 ERA and 2.071 WHIP in three road starts. Wood was better his last time out, but that came against light-hitting San Diego at home.  He's allowed at least five runs in all three road starts, while never making it past the fifth inning.  The Rays haven't been able to do too much damage against left-handed starters so far, but this is arguably the weakest southpaw they will have seen to date.  8* Tampa Bay

8* Toronto (7:07 ET):  This series is of course a rematch from last year's ALDS which featured one of the great games of 2015 (Bautista bat flip). So far, 2016 has not gone as well for the Blue Jays as 2015 did, but remember they got off to a slow start last season as well. Offense is down for last year's AL East champs, but they did pick up a 3-1 win yday at the Rangers expense. After being held to just four runs in the first two games of this series, don't be surprised if the Blue Jays' bats break out tonight against Colby Lewis, who has been giving up his fair share of baserunners this season (1.452 WHIP). Meanwhile, I like Aaron Sanchez starting for Toronto as he's turned in four quality starts thus far despite a 2-3 TSR.

Sanchez turned in his best effort to date on Friday w/ seven scoreless innings of six-hit ball at Tampa Bay. Toronto won that game 6-1. Sanchez did not fare nearly as well his last time starting here at Rogers Centre, but prior to that had given up just 1 ER in each of his first three outings.  A key here could be that the Rangers have never faced Sanchez before.  The only run Texas scored yday came on a leadoff home run and after that they managed just five hits even with the additional inning.  They scored only two runs (but did win) in Monday's series opener, so offense has been virtually non-existent for the road team in this series. The Rangers have been held to four runs or less in 7 of their last 10 ballgames.

Now, Toronto had been blanked until the ninth inning yday, which is when Justin Smoak tied the game w/ a HR and then he won it w/ another in the 10th. The team certainly had their chances to score more last night, but was 0 for 9 w/ RISP.   History though, looks to be on their side tonight as they face Lewis, who is 3-6 w/ a 6.97 ERA in 11 career starts against the Jays.  Lewis hasn't really given up that many runs so far this season, but he's allowed at least six hits in four of his five starts. He also has walked 10 batters in 31 IP. While he didn't walk anyone his last time out, he didn't strike anybody out either. It's only a matter of time before the Blue Jays break out offensively and I feel that time will be tonight! 8* Toronto

8* LA Angels (1:40 ET):  The Angels are a team that I'm not particularly high on for 2016, but then again the same could certainly be said for Milwaukee, whom just about everyone expects to be one of the worst teams in all of baseball this season.  The Brewers certainly haven't "disappointed" as they have the third worst run differential (-35), ahead of only Atlanta and Cincinnati. That being said, the club has actually now won three straight, including the first two games of this three-game set. But I just can't see them finishing off the sweep and it's probably a great time to "sell high" on the Brew Crew as they send the struggling Zach Davies to the mound.  Go with the Angels this afternoon.

Davies (8.78 ERA, 2.251 WHIP) has made three starts so far and none of them have been good.  He's allowed at least four runs every time out and the longest he's lasted in any outing is six innings.  Milwaukee has lost all three games by a combined score of 20-8. Incredibly, opposing hitters are batting .411 against Davies. Almost as bad as that is the fact that in his last time out only 54 of his 92 pitches were strikes.  Hector Santiago didn't exactly "light the world on fire" his last time out for the Angels (gave up 4 ER himself), but he still owns a 4-1 team start record and a 1.051 WHIP. Something to make note of is that three of the four runs Santiago allowed last Friday came with two outs in the sixth. He'd been pitching just fine to that point, save for giving up a solo home run. The Angels should have the edge in starting pitching in this one.

Last night saw the Angels get off to a hot start (led 4-0) and they finished the game with more hits than the Brewers.  That was the second time in the last five games that they lost a game in which they had more hits than their opponent.  As a team, they're batting a collective .304 the L7 games, so if Santiago can get them a quality start, they should be in good shape. By the way, Milwaukee has a terrible bullpen, one that sports a 1.694 WHIP.  Win streaks should be few and far between for the Brewers this season and I don't see the current one continuing.  8* LA Angels

10* Under Blazers/Warriors (10:35 ET):   Five times these teams have played this season. All five games have gone Over the total. In fact, going back two full seasons, 10 of the last 12 Blazers-Warriors matchups have gone Over, including seven in a row.  So history certainly won't be on our side Tuesday night when the Under is the play for Game 2. But I feel that the "law of averages" is with us.  Golden State is of course without its best player and Portland simply isn't a very good road team. Thus, I feel it is highly unlikely that we'll be seeing as many points here as we did in Game 1.  Take the Under.

With Curry sidelined at least until Saturday (Game 3), other players on the Warriors are going to have to step up and in Game 1 that clearly was Klay Thompson, who finished with 37 points on 14 of 28 shooting, which includes 7 of 14 from three-point range.  I do not believe he will be able to duplicate that kind of performance tonight.  Note that the last time Thompson was coming off a 30+ pt performance, he followed it up w/ only 17 points and missed all seven three-point attempts he took.  (That was Game 3 vs. Houston). As a team, GSW scored 37 points in the first quarter of Game 1, had 65 pts by halftime and never really was in danger. But without Curry's 30.1 points per game, I just don't see them being that prolific again on the offensive end.

Portland shot just 40.2 percent from the floor in Game 1, yet still ended up scoring 106 points. That speaks to the pace Golden State plays at, but the game also became a little more "wide-open" due to the large lead that the Warriors enjoyed throughout. Assuming this one is a little closer, the number of possessions should decrease.  The Blazers simply aren't a good road team (17-28 straight up) and their scoring average drops roughly six points per game on the road compared to at home.  The Under is 6-3 for both of these teams over their last nine games, respectively. 10* Under Blazers/Warriors

    

9* Dallas (9:35 ET): I will continue to harp on shot differential as a reliable predictor of future success. If I'm right (and I certainly believe that I am!), then St. Louis could be in some trouble moving forward.  On average, they're giving up 36.9 shots per game in the playoffs while averaging only 29.1 themselves. In this series, the Stars have outshot them in both games, pretty significantly.  The cumulative total is 76-57, so I have no problem taking the Western Conference's top seed at 'plus money' here in Game 3, even though the series has shifted to in St. Louis. The Blues did lose twice on home ice back in the first round.

I was on Dallas in Game 1 and they came through with a 2-1 victory. That spot was certainly advantageous as the Blues were coming off an emotional Game 7 win vs. Chicago.  Game 2 went to overtime as the Stars rallied back from an early two-goal hole by outshooting St. Louis 34-25. But, ultimately, it was not enough. Still though, I have my concerns with a Blues team that has now been outshot in 7 of its 9 playoff games.  They might have come into the series as the betting favorite, but in my opinion Dallas has looked like the better team through two games. While St. Louis has taken five of the seven head to head matchups this season, only one of those victories came in regulation, the first (which took place all the way back in December).

Something to keep an eye on here is the Dallas goaltending situation. Kari Lehtonen was pulled from Game 2 after giving up three goals and Antii Niemi looked good in relief, stopping 19 straight shots before giving up the game winner. Regardless of whom is in goal for the Stars tonight, this play does stand.  Brian Elliott has had a fantastic season between the pipes for the Blues, but he's facing the highest scoring team in the league here and if he keeps facing a high number of shots, then he's going to be in some trouble. Note that the Stars are 16-6 this season after allowing 4+ goals in the previous game. 9* Dallas

8* St. Louis (8:15 ET):  I had the Cardinals yesterday and my reasoning for taking them today will essentially be the same.  Yes, the Phillies came into this series riding a six-game win streak (swept both the Nationals and Indians) and actually had a better record compared to St. Louis. But, as I pointed out yesterday, the respective run differentials of these two teams tells a much different story.  St. Louis, though only .500 in the standings, actually sports the second best run differential (+41) in all of baseball after yday's 10-3 victory. Meanwhile, that very result dropped Philadelphia's YTD run differential to -23, a strong indicator that this 15-11 record of theirs is a bit of a mirage.  Based on those numbers, I expect today's game to go the same way as Monday.

The Phillies actually jumped out to a 3-0 lead last night, which had me worried for a bit, but the Cardinals then responded with five home runs en route to a convincing victory.  One of those long balls came from the pitcher, Adam Wainwright and the sixth, seventh and eighth spot in the order all homered as well.  St. Louis continues to lead the league in offense as they are averaging almost six full runs per game.  The massive discrepancy in runs scored between these two ballclubs is something I pointed out in yday's analysis and I'll reiterate it here.  The Phillies are bottom five in baseball in runs scored and despite playing the same number of games as the Cardinals (26), they've totaled just a little over half the number of runs (153 vs. 80).  That's a very significant gap.

I do have to say that while the Phils have certainly overachieved to this point, that hasn't helped starter Aaron Nola, who has a 0.879 WHIP in five starts, yet is only 1-2.  Nola did have one bad start (allowed 7 ER vs Washington on 4.16) though and this clearly will be the toughest lineup he's faced to date.  St. Louis goes w/ Michael Wacha in this spot and in his two home starts thus far, he's turned in a 0.75 ERA and 1.083 WHIP.  He was a bit of a hard luck loser his last time out as he gave up three runs on just five hits, but the offense had a rare "off-night" and "forgot" to score.  That shouldn't be the case here. 8* St. Louis

10* Toronto (8:05 ET):  All things considered, I'm actually a little bit surprised that the Raptors are the favorites to win this series (-140). Sure, they have the home court edge, but Miami is the more marquee team and certainly had a much "easier" Game 7 win in the first round. So, I'm not surprised that 88% of the bets to win this series are on the Heat. But, that being said, it still took seven games for the Heat to eliminate the Hornets, the same number it took the Raptors to dispatch of the Pacers. Bettors probably still have the proverbial "bad taste" in their mouths from the way Toronto blew the cover in their Game 7 (outscored 20-11 in the 4Q), but in my opinion that has created an opportunity where there's value on them here. Lay the points.

Miami had no problems covering the spread in their Game 7 victory over Charlotte as they prevailed 106-73 as 6.5-pt favorites. They led the entire way as clearly the Hornets were "not ready for primetime."  I think a lot of people still feel the same way about Toronto, who is in the second round of the playoffs for only the second time in franchise history. But I think it's important to point to the home court advantage here as Miami did lose two of three in Charlotte in the first round and is just 21-23 SU in all road games this year. Toronto, meanwhile, is 35-10 SU at home while outscoring opponents by 6.1 PPG.

If the Raptors are to advance to their first Eastern Conference Final, they will certainly need better play from their starting backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. Fortunately, it is highly unlikely that the duo can play any worse than they did against Indiana. Incredibly, Toronto is just the second team in playoff history to win a series in which its two top scorers were both below 33 percent shooting.  Those numbers almost HAVE to go up, don't they?  I feel that the Raptors played a lot better in their last two games than what the final scores say as the actually led Indiana (on the road) at halftime in Game 6, then were up by as many as 15 in the second half in Game 7.  Note that in their three first round losses, the Heat were held under 90 points. Toronto won three of the four regular season matchups vs. Miami, including both here at home (one by 20 pts!). Miami has been held under 47% shooting in each of the last six matchups. The Raptors are the deeper team here and should have an edge in bench scoring throughout the series.  With more people likely to take the Heat, I like the home team here in Game 1. 10* Toronto

6* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET):  The Cubs are an absolute juggernaut right now as they've raced out to an 18-6 start w/ an even more impressive +83 run differential (which is more than double the 2nd best run diff).  It was "more of the same" yday as they beat the Pirates 7-2. When the pitching matchups were announced for this series, more than any other, tonight's stood out to me. I say this because it's a matchup of two pitchers w/ 5-0 TSR's as Jake Arrieta battles Jon Niese. However, as you'll come to find out, not all records are created equally. One pitcher has clearly been better than the other to this point and he happens to be the one working for the better team as well.  Stick with the red hot Cubs in this one as the price is more than justified.

While Arrieta has a 1.00 ERA and 0.778 WHIP (won all 5 starts), Niese has a 5.08 ERA and 1.483 WHIP (is "only" 3-0).  So, clearly, it would be foolish to say that these two are equals even though they have the matching 5-0 team start records. Furthermore, Arrieta (LY's Cy Young winner) is 6-1 w/ a 1.68 ERA all-time vs. Pittsburgh (includes LY's Wild Card Game) while Niese is just 3-6 w/ a 4.76 ERA in his career vs. the Cubs.  Arrieta hasn't allowed any runs in three of his five starts to this point, including a no-hitter, while Niese has actually allowed at least four runs in four of his five starts. Without question, Niese is fortunate to be unbeaten at this point as he's received tremendous run support (8.89 runs per start), but that's something that he won't be able to count on here starting opposite Arrieta.

Niese, in fact, has give up four times the number of earned runs that Arrieta has despite working 7 2/3 less innings. Over his L3 starts, Arrieta has allowed just one run and eight hits in 22 IP. He's attempting to become just the second pitcher in MLB history to allow three runs or less in 26 consecutive starts. Thirteen times during that stretch, he hasn't allowed a single run. Over his L18 starts, he is an unfathomable 16-0 w/ a 0.69 ERA.  You get the picture. Furthermore, Arrieta is working on a 16-inning scoreless streak against the Bucs. This is a total mismatch.  6* Chi Cubs

10* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET):  At home, the Lightning could only manage a split and that has to be at least a little disappointing considering how badly they outshot the Islanders (67-42) in those first two games. In Game 1, goalie Ben Bishop had a rare "off-night," giving up four goals on 13 shots and was actually pulled early.  But I "bet on Bishop" and Tampa Bay in Game 2 and sure enough they came through with a 4-1 win that evened the series. Now the scene shifts to Brooklyn for the next two games.  While that would seem to be an edge for the Isles, I still point to that shot differential (from the first two games) as so many times in these playoffs that particular statistic has been a reliable predictor of future results.  I'm on Tampa Bay here.

Bishop has posted a .933 save percentage so far in the playoffs and to me he's the most important player in this series for the Lightning.  If he continues to see such a low number of shots, then the team should be in very good shape moving forward. Keep in mind that Bishop has allowed two goals or fewer in 9 of his last 10 playoff starts. The Lightning have also picked things up offensively in this series, scoring six times at even strength, after managing just one goal when it was 5 on 5 during the L3 games vs. Detroit. Though dealing with a number of key absences, Steven Stamkos chief among them, Tampa Bay has seen a number of other players "step up," namely Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov and Jonathan Drouin.  The play of Victor Hedman has also been a key, particularly when it comes to keeping Islanders' captain John Tavares in check.

Much will be made of the fact that the Lightning have lost nine straight times as the visitor against the Isles. But this is a team that does have a winning road record this season.  Plus, home ice won't matter if the Isles keep giving up such a ghastly number of shots. In the last four games alone, they've allowed 157 and there were three times in the Florida series that they allowed at least 42!  That's making life difficult on goalie Thomas Griess and if the trend continues that .949 save percentage he has over the L4 games will certainly not hold up.  10* Tampa Bay

10* San Diego (10:10 ET): Though they just swept a series in Arizona, upping their YTD road record to 8-4, I still relish the opportunity to go against the Rockies outside of Coors Field. Particularly when they are in this kind of price range. In what's shaping up to be a wide open National League West, Colorado is actually tied for 1st place, even though they have a .500 record and have been outscored by six runs this season. Before the series in Arizona, the Rockies were -21 in run differential this year and I can't help but think back to the fact this club was a woeful 53-109 on the road the previous two seasons. They've actually been bet to the role of favorite here, something that is quite uncommon. In fact, this team was favored on the money line in only 36 of 162 games last season and almost every time it was at home.

So, it's been established that this is a pretty good value that we're getting here on the Padres, or rather just going against the Rockies.  Furthermore, note that San Diego has already taken two of three from their division rival this season, those games taking place at Coors Field. The Padres totaled 29 runs in their two victories and while neither of them were against Jon Gray (tonight's starter for Colorado), the opportunity is there to have another big night at the plate. I say that because Gray has an 11.42 ERA and 2.191 WHIP in his two starts so far this season as he's given up 11 runs in just 8 2/3 IP.  Last time out, he gave up six in just 3 2/3 as the team fell 9-8 to Pittsburgh. At the time, it was the Rockies' fifth straight loss.

San Diego had also lost five in a row heading into their last series, but it ended up being a successful weekend for them at Chavez Ravine as they took two of three from the Dodgers. Both times they won, they were north of +160 on the money line. Sunday's loss was a 1-0 final as they ran into a red-hot Clayton Kershaw, who also provided the game's lone RBI.  So Padres pitching remains in good form as they allowed just four runs in that entire series and two runs or fewer in four of the last five games overall.  Today's starter James Shields is 0-5 so far, but off his best outing to date as he allowed only one run on three hits in 7 IP vs. the Giants, only to come out on the wrong end of another 1-0 decision. I'm calling for Shields' first victory of the season here as he's been a victim of bad run support thus far, which should change tonight. 10* San Diego

10* Oklahoma City (9:35 ET):  The Thunder are off a humiliating 124-92 loss in Game 1 (as 6.5-pt underdogs) as they were beaten "from pillar to post."   The Spurs scored 43 points in the first quarter and not only never trailed, but got to enjoy a double digit lead from the midway point of the 1Q through the rest of the game. Greg Popovich's team shot a blistering 60.7% overall from the floor, including 9 of 15 (60%) from three-point range, but it's going to be very difficult (if not impossible) for them to match those percentages again tonight. I see OKC coming out very motivated here after suffering what was just their six double digit loss of the season. What's impressive is that they are 4-1 straight up off the previous five. Also, teams coming off a 25+ point loss in the NBA playoffs are 67% ATS since 2005. Take the points.

I will readily admit that the Thunder have never fared well here in San Antonio during the postseason. Their last four such visits here have all resulted in double digit losses, those coming by an average of 28 points per game.  But this team is too good to get blown out in back to back games.  I already mentioned that they are 4-1 straight up this season coming off a double digit loss. For them to be an underdog in the situation is rare (happened only once before) and note that off their ONLY 20+ point loss in the regular season (at Cleveland), the Thunder bounced back with a double digit win their next time out. I won't call for an outright win here, but it will be a close game, judging by OKC's history.

I am simply of the opinion that you often need to "buy low" and "sell high" whether it's regular season or the playoffs (this goes for any sport).  There's simply no way San Antonio will be as good as they were in Game 1 while there's also no way that Oklahoma City will be as bad.  Remember that the Thunder have two of the four best players in the sport on their roster and they were just 11 of 35 from the floor in Gm 1 (0 for 5 from three-point range) while totaling only 30 points. I just can't imagine Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook struggling that much again and note the Spurs are just 23-24 ATS this season when off a double digit victory. 10* Oklahoma City

8* St. Louis (8:15 ET):  This is interesting as it's Philadelphia that comes in on a six-game win streak after sweeping both Washington and Cleveland in its last two series. St. Louis, on the other hand, is reeling after suffering four straight defeats. The last three came here at home against the Nationals, including B2B 6-1 losses. But like Giants-Reds, we have the giant chasm that exists between the have's and have not's in the National League to work with here.  I know what the recent form of these two ballcubs says, but YTD run differential tells a much different story as the Phillies are -17 in that department while the Cardinals, despite having a losing record, are actually 4th best in MLB at +34. Regardless of recent form, the Cards are a contender, the Phils are not and with the price having come way down, this is a great opportunity to "buy low" on a somewhat undervalued favorite.

On paper, things certainly seem to "set up" well here for the visitors, who are facing the struggling Adam Wainwright and on their longest win streak in four seasons. But the Phils were a pretty lucky team in that series with Cleveland as all three wins were of the one-run variety. They managed only four hits yday and remain bottom five in baseball in runs scored. The starting rotation has been shockingly good to this point, but I'm not sure if I'm buying on any of these guys long-term.  Today's starter, Jeremy Hellickson, has a 0.96 ERA and 0.643 WHIP in two road starts thus far. But before tossing seven scoreless innings of two-hit ball his last time out (at Washington), he'd been hit hard in B2B starts, giving up 10 runs and 17 hits in just 7 1/3 IP.  In the last three seasons, Hellickson had not been a very good pitcher on the road as his ERA was 5.13 in 36 outings while opponents batted .275 off him.

Wainwright, meanwhile, has yet to allow fewer than 3 ER in any start this season for the Cards. But he has had some success in the past against Philly w/ a 2.65 ERA in 10 career starts.  I mentioned earlier that the Phillies lineup is really struggling this season (just 3.3 runs/game). Well, St. Louis actually leads all of baseball in offense (5.7 runs/game), so expect Wainwright to get plenty of support here and if that's the case, then the home team wins w/ little difficulty. 8* St. Louis

9* Washington (8:05 ET):  This series is tied at 1-1 after the Penguins took Game 2 by a score of 2-1. Now things shift to Pittsburgh and the Pens have to be feeling confident after outshooting the Caps in both games (80-59).  But this is a tremendous value on Washington, the President's Trophy winner who had 120 points in the regular season, who also happens to be 12-3 this season when off a game where they were held to one goal or less.  I still feel that goalie Braden Holtby's importance is being underrated in this series as he offers the Caps a tremendous edge between the pipes over what Pittsburgh has (a rookie).  I look for Washington to come in and "steal" Game 3.

Matt Murray has performed admirably for his team thus far (1.74 GAA in five starts), but remember that the Pens goaltender did have a bad Game 1. Washington had only 10 shots on goal prior to the third period on Saturday, which certainly made life easy on the rookie. But I just can't imagine him getting away with that level of inactivity again tonight.  Meanwhile, Holtby has been under siege throughout the first two games as not only has he had to make 75 saves, but also there were an additional 38 Penguins shots that were blocked.   But he's been up for the challenge and now has a .957 save percentage in the postseason. I simply trust him more than I do Murray and that's a key edge in this series.

We know that each team will be down a key defender tonight due to the hit Washington's Brooks Orpik laid on Pittsburgh's Olli Matta in Game 2. That hit resulted in a suspension (3 games) for the former and an injury for the latter. I feel Matta's absence will be the bigger deal tonight. I also feel that we can always count on the Capitals' penalty killing unit, which is now a phenomenal 30 of 31 in the playoffs.  Remember that Pittsburgh's one loss in the first round did come on home ice. The Capitals posted the league's second best road record during the regular season (27-10-4) and it's simply not that often that you get the opportunity to take them in this price range. 9* Washington

8* San Francisco (7:10 ET):  In previous analysis, I've given my "lay of the land" in the National League where half of the teams are contenders and half aren't. Anytime I can exploit the giant chasm that exists between the two groups, I probably will, at least in this early part of the season.  Here it's the Giants w/ Johnny Cueto facing Cueto's old team, the Reds. Cincinnati is off a rare win, 6-5 over Pittsburgh on Sunday (in extra innings), but still holds the worst run differential in all of MLB at -52.  San Francisco is only .500 right now (+8 run differential) after salvaging a game Sunday against the Mets. But they clearly remain the better ballclub here and I think the relatively low price range makes a play warranted.

Cueto will be the big storyline here as he pitches for the first time as a visitor at Great American Ballpark. Note that in his last three full years as a member of the Reds, Cueto posted a 25-7 WL record when pitching here. That includes a 13-4 mark in 2014 where his ERA was 1.71 and opponents batted just .180 off him.  The last time we saw him, he was pitching pretty well in his new ballpark as well, recording 11 K's and delivering a complete-game shutout of the Padres (allowed only seven hits).  Cueto's only two road starts so far this year have gone really well too as you can tell from a 1.26 ERA and 0.768 WHIP. Through five starts total, his KW ratio is 33-5.  So, I expect Cueto to pitch well tonight, particularly with the Reds lineup batting a collective .205 its last seven games.

It took 11 innings for Cincy to finally pick up a win on Sunday, but only after they blew a lead in the seventh, eighth AND ninth frames!  That snapped a six-game slide and I'd say the odds of a win streak are pretty minimal considering the offense had scored all of 10 runs in those six losses and never more than three in any one game. Starter Brandon Finnegan, ironically acquired from KC in LY's Cueto trade, has struggled in B2B starts as well. One of those saw him get caught on the wrong end of a 16-0 final, which was the game the Cubs' Jake Arrieta threw his no-hitter. Last time out, Finnegan's control issues continued as he walked three batters in 6 1/3, upping his season total to 15.  This should be an easy one for the Giants.  8* San Francisco

8* San Jose (8:05 ET):  This is the one series among the four in the Conference Semifinals where I think we have a clear favorite. Note that I did not play Game 1 of Predators-Sharks, but I certainly wasn't surprised by the result, which was a 5-2 win for the home team who I will be backing tonight.  San Jose had a pretty clear edge coming into the series opener in that they had played only five games in Rd 1 while Nashville had to go the distance against Anaheim and win Game 7 on the road.  The fact that the Preds had just one day in between series certainly did them no favors either. With the Preds goaltending still a major question mark moving forward, like I said, I'm on the Sharks.

I found it very curious that San Jose finished the regular season with a losing record on home ice.  They of course dropped one here (Game 3) in the last round vs. Los Angeles as well. But despite being 20-24 overall here at "The Tank," they've actually outscored the opposition and done so while outshooting them on a per game average of 32.7 to 25.2.  That's a pretty substantial edge, so it seems as if the Sharks have simply been unlucky to this point on home ice. I look for that to change moving forward though.  It's not like Nashville is any kind of a dominant road team as they are 21-25 SU while being outscored by one-half goal per game.  They did win three times in Anaheim back in Round 1, but I'll write that off as an anomaly. 

Though two of the five goals San Jose scored in Game 1 came on an empty net, Pekka Rinne still is a bit of a problem. The Nashville goalie has struggled here in the postseason and his YTD save percentage on the road is just .906.  Another area where I see the Preds having problems is special teams. Their penalty kill is at a woeful 78.6 percent in the playoffs while San Jose's power play is 29.2 percent.  The Preds were just 1 for 26 themselves with the man advantage in the Anaheim series, so don't expect another PP goal here like you saw in Game 1.  Martin Jones has been great between the pipes for San Jose, allowing two goals or less in four of the last five games. Of course, it helps when your offense scores 11 times like the Sharks have the L2 games. 8* San Jose

8* Boston (8:05 ET):   The Yankees are simply not a very good team right now. Thus, even though David Price has been struggling thus far for the Red Sox, I anticipate that he will dominate this scuffling lineup.  Price was certainly a lot better his last time out where he dominated the lowly Braves with 14 strikeouts while allowing just two runs and six hits over eight innings.  Yes, the Braves are bad and a weak-hitting lineup (plus Price benefited from facing the pitcher), but you know what? The Yankees have actually scored one less run this season than the Braves and that's without having to send the pitcher to the plate! Look for Price to shut down MLB's lowest scoring lineup Sunday night.

Boston has a +21 run differential right now, which is second in the American League, trailing only Baltimore's +22. They've won six of their last seven and yday's 8-0 victory saw them outhit the Yanks 14-5. It was also the team's third win by at least five runs in the last five games. Meanwhile, New York is headed down a much darker path as they've lost five of six and are -30 in run differential for the season. During the slide, this awful lineup is batting a collective .208 while scoring just nine runs!  They've been outhit 40-24 the L4 games. Their numbers at the plate when on the road are predictably dreadful.

Considering the Yankees are only 3-7 in games which they face a southpaw starter, things probably aren't going to go well here vs. Price, who has gone 3-0 w/ a 1.71 ERA his last four starts against them overall.  The Red Sox have now taken six of the last seven meetings from their main rival and I do not think that sending Nathan Eovaldi to the hill is enough to change the fortune of the guys wearing pinstripes.  Eovaldi is coming off his best outing of 2016 to date, but still sports a 4.38 ERA and must contend with a Red Sox lineup that is averaging over six runs per game its last 11 contests while batting a collective .312.  With Price on the hill and the current state of the opponent, the Red Sox are way "underpriced" in this one.  8* Boston

10* Toronto (8:05 ET): To call tonight's Game 7 vs. Indiana "the most important game" in Raptors history is not hyperbole. This is supposed to be the year that they finally make a playoff run. Who knows what will happen to the franchise, which has won just ONE playoff series in its history (and that was all the way back in 2001!), if it loses here. Fortunately, I don't think fans "North of the border" are going to have to worry about that. Coming off an awful second half in Game 6 at Indiana (remember, I had the Pacers), I expect Toronto to rebound (both figuratively and literally) and advance, covering this spread w/ "room to spare."

For Game 6, I cited Indiana having home court advantage as a major reason for taking them laying only a small number.  Now, that advantage is gone. We know about the success home teams have had in the past in Game 7's in the NBA playoffs as they've won 80% of the time (97-24) including a 6-1 record the past two years. Now, I know what you're thinking.  That one loss was Toronto (to Brooklyn) back in '14.  But that was a more veteran Nets squad that they had to deal with there. The Pacers are just 20-24 SU in road games this season.  It should also be pointed out that of the now four home games in this series, this will be smallest number Toronto has had to lay.  They've outscored opponents by 6.2 PPG this seaosn while going 30-14 straight up.  We're getting a good value here.

It's no secret as to why the Raptors have struggled to put away the Pacers in the series. There's a direct correlation with how their starting backcourt of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry have performed, which is to say they've both been very subpar so far.  The two combined for only 18 pts in Game 6 and are averaging 14.6 fewer points per game in the series compared to the reguar season.  But despite losing Game 6 by 18 points and DeRozan/Lowry struggling so much, the Raptors actually led that game at halftime.  I find it hard to believe that Toronto won't improve upon their 36.7% shooting from the last game and it bears mentioning that Indiana has won just one of its last seven visits here (Game 1).  10* Toronto

10* Under Blazers/Warriors (3:30 ET): Handicapping this series is a little difficult due to the Steph Curry injury.  Golden State clearly didn't need the league's presumptive MVP to prevail in Round 1, but then again they were facing a Rockets team that didn't know the meaning of defense and was falling apart at the seams. As for Portland, they too got a bit of a "big break" as the Clippers lost their two best players to injury in the same game and that allowed them to take the series in just six games.  I don't have a great read on the side here, but I do envision Game 1 of this second round matchup being low-scoring, at least by Warriors' standards.  Take the Under.

The last three games of the Warriors' first round series all stayed Under and that's with them scoring 121 and 114 in the last two.  Playing without Curry, the reigning NBA champs turned up the defense, holding the Rockets to just 91.2 PPG on 38.6% shooting.  Before they were able to take the final two games against a severely undermanned Clippers squad, Portland had struggled offensively in the first four games of the series.  In fact, they averaged just 92.5 PPG.  They'd also seen six straight Unders before no longer having to deal with Chris Paul or Blake Griffin.  Portland is a team whose scoring average dips rather dramatically on the road as they average nearly six full points per game fewer than what they average at home.

These teams met four times during the regular season and all four games did manage to go Over the total.  In fact, nine of the last 11 head to head matchups between these two have gone Over, including six straight. But remember who's NOT playing here. That would obviously be Curry, who averaged 32.5 points in just 29.5 minutes per game (54.1% shooting) vs. Portland during the regular season.  Yes, Golden State can still beat Portland w/o him, but it's going to be harder and we won't see them making anywhere close to their usual number of three-pointers (made 18 in three of four reg season games vs. Portland).  I also think that Warriors' defense with Shaun Livingston, and not Curry, on the court is vastly underrated.  10* Under Blazers/Warriors

10* Chi White Sox (1:35 ET):  Chris Sale, at this price, is simply too good to pass up. The White Sox surprised me a little bit yday when they were able to win a slugfest over the Orioles, 8-7. Strong starting pitching has been their "M.O." to this point and that charge has been led by their ace, Sale, who is 5-0 w/ a 1.66 ERA and a ridiculous 0.684 WHIP.  So if the offense is able to produce anywhere near the level of Saturday, they are going to be in line to earn themselves a series split. Baltimore will counter w/ Ubaldo Jimenez and his recent form has basically been the mirror opposite of Sale. 

It's obviously still really early in the season, but Sale has clearly emerged as the frontrunner for the AL Cy Young.  Maybe his strikeout rate has been down a little (32 K's in 38 IP), but the bottom line is he's not giving up any runs. He's allowed just two - one of them unearned - over his L3 starts.  He's allowed just 10 baserunners over his L24 IP, which works out to a preposterously good 0.417 WHIP.  Opponents are batting just .159 against Sale to this point.  He's consistently been able to go deep into games w/ one CG already and last time out he needed only 100 pitched to get through eight innings. He's made it through seven innings in all five starts this year.

Then you have Jimenez, who has a 5.06 ERA and 1.750 WHIP his L3 starts.  While Sale has issued just five walks in five starts, Jimenez has issued 11 free passes in his last three starts alone.  Aside from two starts last season, Jimenez has never fared particularly well against the White Sox w/ a 4.17 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 12 starts.  The edition of the Pale Hose happens to be 11-5 on the road thus far, not to mention 7-3 in day games.  Both of these teams would qualify as "surprise" division leaders to this point, but Baltimore is the one that I believe in less. With Chicago, you can point to clear strengths (pitching) while with the Orioles, I'm still searching for answers.  Look for Sale to remain unbeaten.  10* Chi White Sox

8* Charlotte (1:05 ET):  I fear that the Hornets may have blown their chance at winning the series when they dumped Game 6 at home, losing 97-90 as two-point favorites. However, I've maintained throughout the series that they are the undervalued side here and I'm not deviating from that script here in Game 7.  They did win here in Miami, outright, in Game 5 (I had them).  The last four games of this series have all been low-scoring, so taking the points naturally seems like the way to go in this situation. I do think too many people are writing this this team off despite the fact that they posted a better net efficiency rating than Miami in the regular season. That's a mistake. So, I will be taking the points here.

Charlotte's defense, particularly when it comes to guarding the three-point line, is going to be the key to this game. In the three losses in this series, they've allowed Miami to shoot better than 50 percent from behind the arc and in the first two games of the series, the Heat were almost 58 percent overall from the floor.  But in the three games that the Hornets won, they held Miami to 42% or worse overall, including 33.3% from three-point range.  Thus, we will probably be able to determine pretty early on how this game is going to go. I'm willing to bank on the Hornets defense coming through here as over the last four games they've held the Heat to just 87.5 PPG. It's pretty tough for a favorite of this size to cover when averaging that few points per game.

It was pretty ridiculous to see Dwyane Wade make not one, but two three-pointers in the closing minutes of Game 6.  Consider that's two more than he had made previously in ALL of 2016!  Though Nic Batum's status remains up in the air, I'm still banking on Kemba Walker being the best player on the floor Sunday. He scored 37 points Friday night and is now averaging 25 PPG for the series. The edge that home teams enjoy in Game 7's is very real, but take note that this is the most points that the Heat have been asked to lay in any game this series.  It's a classic overlay, in my opinion.  8* Charlotte

10* Over Thunder/Spurs (8:35 ET):  With two Game 7's still to go (both will be played Sunday), the Under has been "taking names" so far in the NBA Playoffs with a 29-13 (69%) record. However, looking back to the regular season matchups between Oklahoma City and San Antonio, it does appear as if there's at least a little value in taking the Over.  I say that knowing full well that the Under cashed in three of the four matchups. However, only one of those saw fewer than 200 total points scored and that included the reg season finale for OKC, who sat both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.  (Yes, I know that game did go to overtime). With the Thunder's "dynamic duo" obviously in the lineup here, the O/U line is still lower than what it was for that reg season finale, not to mention several points lower compared to the other three matchups.  Take the Over.

Oklahoma City torched Dallas in the final three games of that series, scoring 131, 119 and 118 points.  This will obviously be a greater challenge and I don't anticipate them scoring nearly as much.  Kevin Durant might struggle against the Spurs, particularly when guarded by Kahwi Leonard, but there's still Russell Westbrook, who has averaged 22.5 points, 7.3 assists and 5.8 rebounds in 12 career playoff games vs. San Antonio.  Obviously, it's pretty rare to find OKC taking this many points, but history suggests a high-scoring game as they're 26-10 Over L36 times in the +6.5 to +9 range on the road. The Thunder finished the regular season ranked #2 in offensive efficiency, trailing only Golden State of course.

San Antonio was #1 in defensive efficiency, but lost in that is they were #3 in offensive efficiency.  Perhaps "better than ever," Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge have both stepped up at the offensive end at the same time the famous core of Duncan-Parker-Ginobili has slightly declined w/ age.  Leonard led the team in scoring w/ 21.2 PPG while Aldridge wasn't far behind at 18.0.  The team averages nearly 105 PPG at home this year and comes off a 116-pt effort in the series clincher vs. Memphis.  I think we'll see better overall shooting than you might think in this game. 10* Over Thunder/Spurs

9* Under Penguins/Capitals (8:05 ET): I had Washington in Game 1 and they came through for me with a thrilling 4-3 overtime win.  It was not a player with the last name of Ovechkin or Crosby that was the star of the series opener, but rather Oshie as in TJ Oshie, who had a hat trick for the winning side. I do think that the Caps come into this series a little undervalued, but while I wouldn't mind endorsing them again here in Game 2, I have trepidation over the fact they were outshot 45-35 on Thursday. Thus, I'll look at the total where there is now plenty of value on the Under at 'plus-money' thanks to the public seeing that high score from the last game.  This one won't see even close to that many goals scored.

I think the edge that Washington has with Braden Holtby in goal is being somewhat underrated in this series. Holtby, who matched a league record for wins in the regular season, turned in a 0.84 goals against average in Round 1 vs. the Flyers and then stopped 42 of 45 shots in Game 1.  That ups his save percentage to a phenomenal .960 in the postseason. Note that the Under is now 6-2 the last three years when the Caps have the lead in a playoff series.  Of course, Pens goalie Matt Murray (a rookie) doesn't have near the resume Holtby does, but he does have a .935 save percentage in these playoffs and remember that Washington only scored two goals in its last three games of the Flyers series. 

The respective power plays were huge for both teams in Round 1, but contributed nothing to Game 1 here in Rd 2.  The Caps were 0 for 6 w/ the man advantage Thursday while the Pens were 0 for 2.  That's been pretty much par for the course when these two teams meet this season as combined the two PP units are now a combined 3 for 42 in six head to head meetings.  Both teams' penalty killing units ranked in the top five during the regular season, so I see little change occurring in this area.  Washington's power play has really done nothing outside of one game (where it scored FIVE times vs. Philly) this postseason and Pittsburgh's power play ranked just 16th in the regular season.  I expect a low-scoring game here. 9* Under Penguins/Capitals

    

7* Arizona (8:10 ET):  You'll note that the Diamondbacks (along with the Marlins) were excluded from my "discussion" of the lay of the land in the National League in the Cincinnati-Pittsburgh writeup.  I could see their season going either way as they came into 2016 w/ plenty of hype thanks to an active approach to free agency. Last night, things certainly did not go well as they fell here at home to Colorado, 9-0.  Perhaps the road team benefited from an unexpected off-day as Thursday's contest vs. Pittsburgh was postponed due to weather. However, it has been Rockies' rookie phenom Trevor Story that has really been killing Arizona (and the rest of the league for that matter) w/ five of his 10 HR's coming off D'backs pitching.  However, after they were embarrassed last night,  I'll look for the home team to bounce back tonight.

Something that I did not anticipate writing in this space is that Colorado comes in with a winning road record (6-4) this season. Consider that they are still 59-113 outside of the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field the last three seasons.  Also, off a win (of any kind), the club is 59-81 the L3 seasons.  That includes a 3-6 mark in 2016.  Chris Rusin is their starting pitching tonight as he makes his season debut in that role.  Having made four relief appearances this season, he hasn't allowed a run in his last 9+ IP.  But starting is an entirely different animal.  I'll call for him to struggle here, just like he has throughout his career as a starter (9-19, 5.21 ERA).

I have yet to even mention that Arizona will be sending Zack Greinke to the hill. That's because he's had a very disappointing start to his D'backs' tenure, though the team has won his L3 turns in the rotation.  The move from Chavez Ravine to Chase Field has not been a positive one thus far for LY's NL Cy Young winner, but I certainly expect his numbers to improve moving forward.  Prior to yday, his offense had not been shut out this season and I expect them to bounce back as well.  Arizona is averaging a healthy 5.2 rpg at home this season.  7* Arizona

5* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET):  Something that I will continue to harp on until proven otherwise is that a giant chasm exists between the top and bottom teams in the National League. If you spent any time reading season previews, then you're probably aware that there are seven teams in the Senior Circuit believed to be legit contenders in 2016 (Cubs, Nats, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Cards, Pirates).  At the other end of the spectrum, a case can be made that the six worst teams in all of baseball hail from the NL (Phillies, Braves, Brewers, Reds, Rockies, Padres).  This chasm is something I'll likely be looking to exploit early in the season or at least until the linesmakers fully catch up. 

Here, we have the Pirates hosting the Reds. As you might have guessed, the former beat the latter 4-1 last night. It was Pittsburgh's fifth consecutive victory and at the same time Cincinnati's fifth straight loss. The Reds' YTD run differential (-49) is now a MLB worst, so a 9-14 record should actually be dubbed as being fairly fortunate. Believe it or not, Cincy has a winning record against the Bucs the L2 seasons and took two of three in the first series of 2016 (at Great American Ballpark). But I do not envision this weekend going well for the road team and quite frankly a sweep seems likely. The only run that the Reds scored last night came w/ two outs in the top of the ninth.

Things figure to not go well again tonight as Alfredo Simon heads to the hill. He has a 15.11 ERA and 2.878 WHIP (three starts) coming into tonight after B2B disastrous outings against the Cubs.  After failing to even make it out of the first inning (allowed five runs) on 4.13, Simon then allowed eight runs in 2 2/3 innings on Sunday. He was also the starter when the Reds lost their only game to the Pirates at home.  Pittsburgh has homered seven times in last four games while averaging eight runs per game and 12.6 hits its last five. By the way, the Reds are just 1-9 on the road this season while being outscored by 3.6 runs/game.  This should be an easy one for Bucs starter Francisco Liriano, who came out on the winning end against Simon back on April 5th.  5* Pittsburgh

8* NY Mets (4:05 ET):  On the back of one strong inning, the Mets tattooed the Giants Friday night, winning 13-1 with all but one of those runs coming in a stunning third inning explosion. The reigning Senior Circuit champs are a hot team right now as they've won seven in a row and have MLB's third best run differential (+40), trailing only the Cubs and Cardinals.  While I often preach to "buy low, sell high," the fact is that things get no easier for San Francisco today as they go up against the well-rested Jacob deGrom.  Even worse is that they will be sending the struggling Matt Cain (last win came all the way back on 7.22) to the bump. I'm not getting in front of this runaway Mets' train right now; in fact I'm jumping on it.

DeGrom has made only two starts due to both a muscle strain and a health issue w/ his newborn son. After going more than two weeks between starts, deGrom showed no ill-effects from the long layoff by going 5 2/3 innings and allowing just one run to Atlanta on Sunday. Now, you could point out that deGrom has gotten to face both the Braves and Phillies (NL's two lowest scoring offenses) so far. That's certainly fair. But deGrom is 2-0 lifetime vs. SF w/ a 1.17 ERA.  In his one start against them last season, he went eight innings, allowing only two hits and striking out 10.  That was in San Fran and history suggests he should be even more dominant tonight.  His 1.86 ERA in 26 career starts at Citi Field is the lowest home ERA of any Mets pitcher in history w/ at least 169 IP.

As mentioned earlier, the Giants will counter w/ Cain, who has gone 0-5 w/ a 6.64 ERA his L11 starts overall. He allowed a season-worst 10 hits on Sunday against the Marlins as for a third straight time he failed to make it through a full six innings. Now he must face a Mets lineup that is batting an impressive .289 its last 14 games with 29 home runs and a 5.9 runs per game scoring average.  As for bouncing back from a performance like yday's, note that San Francisco is 0-2 this season after allowing 10+ runs and 5-8 in that role the L3 seasons.  8* NY Mets

8* Tampa Bay (3:05 ET): Having lost the series opener on home ice, Game 2 is virtually "must win" territory for the Lightning. I did not have TB in Game 1 (had the Under), yet was as shocked as anyone to see goalie Ben Bishop struggle so badly as he was chased after giving up four goals on just 13 shots. For the Islanders, I do not see them benefiting from "Lightning striking twice."  Bishop, if you recall, turned in a .950 save percentage in Rd 1 and his career playoff numbers were a 2.08 goals against average & .926 going into Thursday. Also, the Lightning "enjoyed" a 36-22 edge in shots in Game 1. So many times in these playoffs we've seen a team that lost (despite having a clear edge in shots) the previous game, bounce back its next time out. That will be the case here with Tampa Bay.

The Lightning came into this series owning a perfect 7-0 record when taking the ice with at least three days rest. But the extended time off between series certainly seemed to be of no benefit to them in Game 1 as they fell behind 3-1 after one period.  From that point on, they outshot the Isles 28-10 as scoring was even. Keep in mind that Bishop had not allowed more than two goals in his last eight playoff starts. While the power play continues to struggle (4 of 25 in the playoffs), at least TB was able to score twice at even strength in Gm 1, doubling their output in that department from the previous three games. There have been only two times in 2016 that the Lightning have dropped B2B home games.

Three of the Islanders' Round 1 victories came in overtime.  Thus you might be able to call Thursday their best playoff performance to date, but again note they were outshot badly and are giving up a ghastly 38.7 shots per game in the playoffs.  They've allowed at least 36 shots in five of the seven games including 40+ three times against the Panthers.  What's interesting is that while the Isles have taken three of four matchups from the Lightning this season, it has been Tampa Bay that has finished w/ the edge in shots three times. I expect Bishop to be better here and for the home team to salvage a split of the first two games. The Lightning cannot afford to head back to Brooklyn down 0-2 in the series. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Portland (10:35 ET):  It's now all over but the shouting for the Clippers, a team still reeling from the loss of both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. Portland has taken the last three games of this series, including Game 5 in Los Angeles, 108-98 as 2.5 pt chalk.  While the Clips are 10-3 against the spread this season when seeking revenge for a home loss, now they have to do so w/o their two best players, a near impossible task.  Plus, they are 0-4 ATS the L3 seasons as a road underdog of at least 9.5 points, which they are here.  The price range is justified given how depleted they are and I look for the Blazers to move on.  Lay the points.

In taking Portland the last time they were here at home (Game 4), I noted in my analysis just how strong they've been this year playing at the Moda Center. They're now 30-13 straight up with a point differential of almost six points per game.  Game 4 is of course where "it all went wrong" for the Clippers (losing both Paul and Griffin) and considering they averaged just 86 PPG in the two contests in Portland, with Paul and Griffin both playing most of the way, I just don't know where the scoring is going to come from tonight.  As a team, they've shot below 40 percent the last three games including 25.4 percent from three-point range.  Making matters worse for them is that Portland has gotten hot from three-point range the L2 games.

Here's a trend for you:  the Blazers are 17-3 ATS their last 20 home games with a total in the 195 to 199.5-point range.  There should be a tremendous sense of urgency here for the home team as they want to avoid having to go back to LA for Game 7.  Portland comes off its highest scoring game of the series, another bad sign for the Clippers.  I just can't make any case for the Clips to be competitive in this environment.  8* Portland

8* Seattle (10:10 ET):  The Mariners have a nice advantage coming into tonight's series opener and it's name is Felix Hernandez, who will be toeing the rubber for them.  King Felix, somehow stuck with a 1-3 team start record, still is sporting 1.80 ERA and 1.160 WHIP. Despite the relatively high walk rate, I expect him to handle his business here against a Royals team that just got swept down in Los Angeles. You might be surprised to learn that Seattle has been the better ballclub compared to Kansas City so far, at least according to run differential (+17 to +3) and then there's the fact they have a winning record against the Royals the previous two seasons (where KC has made B2B World Series appearances). Go with the M's.

Hernandez has only gotten to pitch one time at Safeco Field in 2016 and that outing saw him deliver seven scoreless innings of three-hit ball w/ 10 K's against Oakland.  Sadly, Seattle still lost the game 2-1.  In fact, the offense has yet to score more than three runs in any of Hernandez's starts this year. Despite that, the fact they are still 12-10 is actually kind of encouraging as they've actually outscored opponents by 20 runs while going 11-7 in non-Hernandez starts. You have to figure that King Felix will turn things around and tonight is a good place to start.  The Royals have lost five consecutive road games while scoring only 12 total runs.

Aiding the Seattle offense here will be facing Kris Medlen, who was a disaster his last time out as he gave up seven runs in just 3 2/3 innings of work in what ended up being a 7-3 loss for his team.  I can't see Medlen standing in there and going toe to toe with Hernandez, who has not allowed more than three runs in any start.  Medlen will have to contend here with the surging Robinson Cano, who has eight home runs and 24 RBI's thus far, both personal bests for April.  Two of Seattle's losses with Hernandez on the mound came by one run, both seeing him not allow an earned run.  Last time, he allowed all three runs on two mistakes (both home runs). His "luck" is due to turn and the fact is this is a very fair price range. 8* Seattle

10* Dallas (8:05 ET):  St. Louis actually comes in as the favorite to win this series against what was the Western Conference's top team during the regular season (in terms of points) despite obviously not having the home ice advantage.  I suppose that's fair, but for Game 1, it's set up a situation where there is a ton of value in taking the Stars.  Yes, the Blues did take four of the five regular season matchups and would seem to have a significant edge in goal.  But they are also coming off a very hard-fought series with the rival Blackhawks where they were outshot pretty significantly despite advancing.  Thus, the road team is "ripe for the picking" in Game 1.

All but one of the games vs. Chicago in Rd 1 were decided by exactly one goal for St. Louis, including all four wins. I realize that there were a couple of overtime games mixed in there, but still, giving up an average of 36.6 shots per game is a fairly ominous sign considering who they are matched up with now.  Dallas led the league in scoring during the regular season (3.2 goals per game) and was above that average in Round 1 against the Wild where they scored 21 times in six games.  The Blues goaltender, Brian Elliott, was outstanding in the regular season. But, he showed signs of "slippage" vs. Chicago, including a .903 save percentage the last four games.  I don't think that St. Louis can compete in any kind of high-scoring affair here.

Now, Dallas was 24th in goals allowed during the regular season. But their 56.1 Corsi-for percentage was the highest of any team in Round 1 while St. Louis was actually below 50 percent in that department. So, provided the Stars can control the puck here, they should be just fine. Note that while St. Louis did win four of the five regular season meetings, three of those weren't decided until extra time.  The Blues go from undervalued in Round 1 to overvalued for Game 1 of Round 2.  10* Dallas

10* Indiana (7:35 ET):  This is a "do or die" situation for the Pacers, the very definition of a "must win" as they let one get away Tuesday night in Toronto and as a result are now facing elimination on their home floor.  They led most of the way in Game 5, by as many as 15 in the second half as a matter of fact, before things imploded and they ended up losing by three. Indiana did leave Toronto "with the cash" (covered as 7-pt dogs), but that's obviously a small consolation. Yet, it is indicative of the fact that the individual games in this series have been a little mispriced.  Twice the Pacers have been able to win outright, as dogs, by double digit margins. Tonight marks just the second time they've been favored in a game (lost the first) and given the circumstances, that's warranted. Lay the small number.

Paul George has already come out and stated that he's willing to "play all 48" (minutes) tonight, if need be. The fact that there have been two off days between games would seem to allow George to do that and playing w/ two days rest exactly seems to be the Pacers "sweet spot" as they are 12-4 against the spread in that role this season. Remember that this team has really "cleaned up" against conference foes this season, at least at the betting window where they are 35-22 ATS.   They might be just 4-5 ATS vs. Toronto, but this series has been relatively even to this point with the Raptors outscoring the Pacers by less than one point per game. Thus, it appears as if the value of home court advantage is being a little "undersold" in this one as Indiana is 27-16 SU on its own floor this season, outscoring teams by 3.9 PPG. 

There's a lot of pressure in this series on Toronto, who is trying to advance to the second round for just the second time in franchise history. You'd think that would breed a sense of urgency, but note the last game here in Indiana saw the Raptors come in w/ a 2-1 series lead and basically "mail in" the the game.  Though DeMar DeRozan broke out a bit in Game 5, the Raptors starting backcourt of he and Kyle Lowry has really struggled so far in this series.  As I said at the outset of the series, the Pacers are the far better defensive team here and they've held Toronto under 42 percent shooting in four of the five games. The Raptors' three-point shooting has been nothing short of atrocious (33 of 125). They are also just 1-3 ATS all-time when up in a playoff series. 10* Indiana

10* NY Yankees (7:10 ET):  Right off the bat, the Yanks have a little bit of an advantage over the rival Red Sox coming into tonight's series opener. They had Thursday off while Boston had to play and lost to the lowly Braves, 5-3. That loss snapped a four-game win streak for Beantown and it's tough to like their chances here considering they're on the wrong end of what appears to be a pretty giant pitching mismatch. Boston sends Henry Owens to the bump and he's coming off a poor first start to the season.  New York counters with Masahiro Tanaka, who has a 0.973 WHIP in his four starts, the last three of which have resulted in wins for the team.  I'm on the Pinstripes here.

The Yankees probably were happy to have yday off considering they dropped B2B games in Texas the two days prior.  The scuffling offense (just 10 runs scored last five games) has been a problem and is a major reason why this team currently finds itself in the AL East basement.  However, Tanaka can counteract that as he's yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season and in his last two he's gone seven innings both times, posting an outstanding 13-1 KW ratio.  Tanaka has had his share of difficulties in the past vs. the Red Sox, but one thing to consider is that the Yankees have accounted quite well for themselves here at Fenway the last two seasons, winning 11 of 14 games.

Though Boston ultimately won the game (7-5 at Houston) last Sunday night (I was on them!), that wasn't owed to Owens, who was hit hard. He gave up three runs in only 3 1/3 IP and walked four batters as well. So the Sox were definitely a bit lucky to walk away from that one w/ a win and I certainly didn't like what I saw from Owens there. I also haven't liked what I've seen in the past from Owens against the Yankees as he's allowed 10 runs on 11 hits in just 6 2/3 innings of work.  That's over two starts and both times he went up against Tanaka and lost.  The combined score of those two games was 26-11 in favor of NY. The third time will not be the charm for Owens. 10* NY Yankees

8* Run Line Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am laying the -1.5 with the Cubs. This is just like yday, only possibly even easier. The Cubs, who lead all of MLB in run differential by a wide margin (+74), now welcome in arguably the worst team in either league. That would be the Braves, who are actually off a rare win here, just their fifth of the entire season. They surprised me and Boston yday, winning 5-3, but aside from a three-game sweep of the Marlins this team has just two other wins this season. On paper, this series is the biggest mismatch of the weekend (and maybe month!) and the fact that Jon Lester toes the rubber for the home team makes things all the more lopsided.

Just like Jake Arrieta yesterday, Lester should be in line for a dominant performance here. He comes in w/ a 1.98 ERA and 0.842 WHIP in four starts so far. He probably should have a 4-0 team start record as the one time the team lost with him on the bump, Lester still allowed only one run and four hits in 7+ IP. But unfortunately, the offense was shut out that day (by Colorado). But in the other three Lester starts, the Cubs have outscored opponents by a combined 19-5 margin. He gives his team a massive advantage here as Atlanta is forced to go with Aaron Blair, who gave up three runs and six hits (plus two walks) in his big league debut on Sunday. Blair and the Braves are simply ill-equipped to compete against this weekend's opponent.

Yes, the Cubs could be without Kris Bryant, who suffered a mild ankle sprain in yday's 7-2 win over Milwaukee. But consider that over the last seven games, the Cubs have outscored their opponents by four runs per game while over the same span Atlanta is being outscored by three runs per game. Braves pitching has been a disaster since the start of the season, especially in the walks department as they've issued 87 free passes thus far. The Cubs have taken the most walks in all of baseball w/ 114 (drew 11 yday!). Consider that the Cubs have beaten the Braves six straight times, every win coming by at least two runs. With the Cubs in the neighborhood of -300 on the money line, the run line becomes our friend here. 8* Run Line Chi Cubs (-1.5)

10* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET):  Miami has come into Chavez Ravine and taken the first two games of this three-game set from the still-NL West leading Dodgers. That includes an absolute stunner against Clayton Kershaw (Marlins were +255 on the money line!) in the series opener. But it all changes tonight as they get set to face Kenta Maeda, who has been the best pitcher in the Dodgers' rotation thus far.  Now, Miami does counter w/ Jose Fernandez, but his numbers simply don't compare to Maeda's and keep in mind this is a road game. For those who haven't followed Fernandez's career as closely, he is a far more effective pitcher at home than on the road.  Look for the Dodgers to avoid the sweep.

In four starts, Maeda has a 0.36 ERA and 0.869 WHIP.  We're talking Jake Arrieta territory with those numbers.  Only Detroit's Jordan Zimmerman has a better ERA (in all of baseball) right now as Maeda has allowed a grand total of ONE run in his four starts, which have spanned 25 1/3 innings.  His last time out he pitched at Coors Field and delivered six-plus scoreless innings of three-hit ball.  The only run Maeda has allowed came on a solo home run.  So the Marlins offense isn't likely to get many chances tonight and keep in mind they only scored two runs yday.  Opponents are batting just .189 against Maeda, who is allowing an on base percentage of .240.  Just spectacular. 

The Dodgers are typically very strong off a loss, going 92-57 in that role the last three seasons. That includes a 12-5 record if they happened to be shutout in the previous game.   Fernandez allowed four runs his last time out in a loss at San Francisco and has now walked 10 batters in his L3 starts overall.  He comes in w/ a 4.37 ERA.  While he's 18-1 at home in his career, his road record is just 5-10 w/ an ERA that's over two full points higher. Despite losing the last two games, the Dodgers are still +17 in run differential.  10* LA Dodgers

8* Atlanta (8:05 ET):  As you might be able to ascertain from this line, the oddsmakers are basically begging you to take Boston, who is off a horrible 110-83 loss in Game 5 and now faces a situation where they are playing to keep their season alive. I will not take the bait. Atlanta has been the better team for the vast majority of this series, only to twice blow leads of 16 points or greater and end up not covering. The first time was Game 1, which they still won, 102-101. The second was Game 4, which ended up being an overtime loss. The Celtics really miss their second-leading scorer, Avery Bradley in this series (lost for the season in Gm 1) and it shows.  I'll lay the points on the road.

If losing Bradley wasn't bad enough, leading scorer Isaiah Thomas left Game 5 with an ankle injury. He's currently listed as probable to play, but if not at 100 percent, then I just don't know where the Celtics' scoring comes from.  Remember that Atlanta ranked second in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season.  The Hawks seemed to "figure out" how to defend Thomas by double and even triple teaming him Tuesday and that resulted in Boston's top scorer shooting just 3 of 12 from the field before his early exit.  Keep in mind that as a team, the Celtics are averaging just 94.2 PPG in the series. While it might seem tempting to take them as a home dog, note their record in that role this season is only 2-4 straight up and 2-3-1 against the spread.

As good as Atlanta's been defensively in this series, it was the offense that keyed them to victory on Tuesday by scoring an incredible 70 points over an 18-minute span!  While some teams have a tendency to "phone one in" when up a game in a series, I do not believe that will be the case here with the Hawks - at all - as wrapping up this series ASAP should be a priority given that Cleveland is going to be well rested for Round 2.  Those anticipating a letdown off a big win best take note of some Hawks' history as the team is actually an incredible 50-29 ATS the L3 seasons when coming off a double digit win.  This series is over after tonight.  8* Atlanta

9* Washington (8:05 ET):  What a series this shapes up to be. We have what has been the best team over the course of the entire season (Capitals) taking on what has been the best team down the stretch (Penguins). For Game 1, I'm taking the home team. Pittsburgh did take three of the five regular season meetings, including 2 of 3 here in DC. But the playoffs are an entirely different animal and what has to be taken into account here is the massive edge in goal the Caps should have with Braden Holtby (0.84 GAA in Rd 1) over the Pens, who are still relying on a rookie (Matt Murray), in place of the injured Marc-Andre Fleury. 

Special teams, particularly the respective power plays, are probably going to play a vital role in this series. Both power plays here were incredible in Round 1 as the two combined for 16 goals while the respective PK units allowed only three.  Looking back to the regular season, Washington ranked 5th when on the man advantage (21.9 percent) while Pittsburgh was just 16th, so the favorite certainly seems more likely to sustain its level of success there. The Caps also ranked third in penalty killing, by the way (Pens were 5th). 

It was pretty stunning to see Washington score only two goals over the final three games of the Philadelphia series, but take note of their 11-3 record this year when coming off a game where they scored one or zero goals.  The series clincher was a 1-0 win, on the road, so that right there should tell you what kind of goaltender they have in Holtby.  Henrik Lundqvist imploded against the Penguins in Rd 1 and while he's one of the all-time great competitors, I don't see the same fate striking down Holtby.  The Caps are well aware of their playoff history and aren't about to "give away" Game 1 of this series.  9* Washington

5* Boston (7:10 ET): After (not surprisingly) taking the two games in Atlanta, the Red Sox beat the Braves here at Fenway yesterday by a score of 9-4.  I see no reason why the better team won't be able to complete the sweep here of this four-game Interleague set. Last night's loss was the eighth straight for Atlanta, who was widely expected to be the worst team in baseball this season. They currently stand at 4-17 with a run differential of -44.  So, yeah, they're not a very good ball club. That's the worst won-loss record in MLB and only Cincinnati (-46) is worse in run differential.  This series was "just what the doctor ordered" for Boston.

While the starting staff for the Red Sox still has plenty of room to improve, one area that they have been fantastic in is striking opposing hitters out.  Accoring to Elias (Sports Bureau), their 220 K's through 21 games is a Major League record.  They have 34 in this series alone. Getting the baseball tonight will be Clay Buchholz, who has allowed exactly 5 ER in three of his four starts to this point. But he did strike out a season-high six batters his last time out and I'm going to go ahead and call for this to be a quality start. His last time pitching here at Fenway saw him toss 6 2/3 scoreless innings and that was against a Toronto lineup that is generally regarded as the most formidable in the sport. Atlanta would be at the opposite end of the spectrum as they come into tonight tied (w/ Philadelphia) for the fewest runs scored in all of baseball. 

All of the Braves' wins this season came in one-win streak. Otherwise, they are an unconscionable 1-15 off a loss.  They've been outscored 21-8 in the three games vs. Boston and I don't see Jhoulys Chacin being able to turn the tide.  He's allowed a total of seven runs in his last 6 2/3 innings of work. Remember that the Red Sox lineup is now tougher with the games taking place at home because they get to use the DH. As for Atlanta's offense, they have a combined FOUR home runs/triples so far this season.   They are a team that is going to lose a LOT of ballgames in 2016.  5* Boston

8* Run Line Chi Cubs (2:20 ET):  Please note that this is a run line play only where I am LAYING the 1.5 runs with the Cubs. Considering who is pitching for the home team today (Jake Arrieta), I find it hard to believe that they won't be winning this game by multiple runs.  Arrieta is of course coming off a no-hitter vs. the Reds, a game the Cubs won 16-0 as the team's run differential with him on the mound this season is an incredible +33. Arrieta has won all four starts, posting a 0.87 ERA and 0.677 WHIP, three times not even giving up a single run. Every game this season where he's started has been decided by at least four runs. Going back to last season, Arrieta now has a 0.79 ERA over his last 20 starts w/ two no-hitters. Milwaukee doesn't have a chance here.

Yesterday's rainout only delayed the inevitable for the Brew Crew as this game sets up as one of the biggest pitching mismatches of 2016.  Milwaukee starter Taylor Jungmann has an 8.47 ERA and 1.824 WHIP in his four starts and his last time out saw him give up as many runs in four innings as Arrieta has all season in 31.  Jungmann's last three starts have seen the Brewers go 0-3 while being outscored 23-2.  He walked six batters against Minnesota a week ago, which is never a good sign.  The Brewers currently have the third worst run differential in all of baseball at -38. 

Getting back to Arrieta, he is working on a 48+ scoreless innings streak here at Wrigley and the team is 17-0 his last 17 starts overall in the regular season.  Bob Gibson (in the late 60s) was the last pitcher to record 24 consecutive quality starts, which is where Arrieta is at now.  In his last three starts vs. Milwaukee, he has a 0.86 ERA including a 4-0 shutout here at the Friendly Confines back in September.  In the grand scheme of things, it's some heavy juice to lay for a team to win by multiple runs, yet totally justifiable.  8* Run Line Chi Cubs (-1.5)

10* Over Rockets/Warriors (10:35 ET): Contrary to popular belief, those living in the Bay Area should not be preparing for Armageddon.  Yes, Steph Curry is going to be out for at least a couple weeks. But all the Warriors need is one win over the Rockets to advance and they may very well end up playing an even more injury-riddled Clippers team in the second round. Without Curry, I don't want to lay the points here, but I will turn to the total as any notion of Golden State's offensive production going down should put aside here as Houston is just dreadful defensively.  The Rockets allow 108.2 points per game on the road and that's while facing 28 other teams that don't have Curry either.  Take the Over. 

Playing without Curry for most of this series, Golden State has still found a way to average over 109 points per game and that number would probably be even higher were in not for the blowout nature of some of the games.  Case in point, they had scored 97 points through three quarters on Sunday in what ended up being an easy 121-94 win and cover. (I chose wisely in laying the points in Game 4).  The Warriors shot a series best 51.7% from the floor and set a new NBA playoff record w/ 21 three-pointers made and keep in mind that was with Curry shooting just 2 of 9, including 1 of 7 from three-point range. Golden State is going to find ways to score tonight and it won't be hard against the worst defensive team in the playoffs.

Of course, we will also need some help from Houston's offense to get what we want here.  Thankfully, I can't possibly see them being as bad as they were from three-point range in Game 4 where they missed 22 of 27 attempts.  The last two games have seen them go a horrific 16 of 63 from behind the arc. This is a team that averaged a respectable 34.5% on three-pointers during the regular season, so they should improve tonight.  Something else that should be mentioned is these two teams combined to miss 23 free throws in Game 4.  Golden State got to the line only 16 times and made just eight FT's. I expect their number of attempts to go way up here while the overall number of misses comes down. That should be instrumental in this one going Over the total.  10* Over Rockets/Warriors

8* Anaheim (10:05 ET):  After the road team opened this series with four consecutive victories, home ice advantage has come back into play the last two games with the Ducks and Predators exchanging victories. Though there's no real historical evidence that home ice gives a team any kind of significant advantage in Game 7's (home teams are 22-22 L44 Game 7's in NHL), the fact is that Anaheim is the better team here and I see them advancing.  This is a team that finished the regular season ranked #1 in goals allowed, penalty killing and on the power play. It would be a real shocker if they were to be ousted in the first round.

Many are going to want to point to the Ducks' poor history in Game 7's (lost four straight) and HC Bruce Boudreau's own 1-5 record in this very situation. But, as a counterpoint, I offer to you St. Louis beating Chicago the other night, a result that definitely "flew in the face of history."  I still believe that Anaheim has the advantage in terms of goaltending w/ Frederik Andersen having turned in a strong 1.26 GAA in the series and he's generally outplayed Nashville's Pekka Rinne, whose save percentage the last four games is just .885.  Also, there's the penalty killing as the Ducks are 22 for 23 in that department in this series.

Nashville has NEVER been in a Game 7 before in franchise history, so it's not like they have any foundation of success to build on in this particular situation.  They are also just 8-15 this season coming off a multi-goal victory. The two-goal victory in Game 6 only came about as a result of an empty-netter, mind you  Since "stealing" Game 1 of the series in Anaheim, the Preds have averaged just 1.8 goals per game the last five and I'll point out that during the regular season, this club was five games below .500 on the road.  I'm simply going to side with what I believe is the much better side in this one. 8* Anaheim

10* LA Angels (10:05 ET): The Angels, who I'm admittedly not very high on this year, have a chance to sweep the reigning World Series Champs here at home and I think they're going to do it.  It's been a pair of pretty dominant victories so far in the series, 6-1 and 9-4, with a 22-13 edge in hits and I certainly believe the pitching matchup is in the Halos favor tonight. While they've certainly enjoyed a ton of success the last two seasons (B2B World Series appearances!), the Royals have also had their fair share of good luck and I've never been as high on them as others have been.

The last time Nick Tropeano pitched for the Angels, I took the Under. It was a game against Seattle and he was supposed to face Felix Hernandez, but King Felix was a late scratch and it ended up being Hisashi Iwakuma going for the Mariners. No matter, the game was 2-2 after nine innings and I still cashed by Under bet (7.5) despite a three-run 10th from Seattle.  Tropeano obviously didn't factor into the decision there, but he certainly did his job, allowing only two runs in 5+ IP.  He did walk four batters, but consider that equaled the number of free passes he'd issued in his first two starts combined. Overall, it's been an excellent start to the season for Tropeano, who has a 1.69 ERA through three starts. Giving up the long ball is something you don't have to worry about with him as in his career (75 1/3 innings), he's allowed just two home runs and both were solo shots.

Kansas City will be sending veteran Chris Young to the bump here and his numbers won't exactly inspire a ton of confidence for his team.  In four starts, Young has a 6.41 ERA and 1.627 WHIP and on the road is where things have been real ugly (10.38 ERA, 2.422 WHIP).  He's coming off his strongest outing to date (vs. Baltimore), but I simply don't see a repeat of that taking place here. Consider that his 10 strikeouts against the Orioles marked the first time in EIGHT SEASONS that he posted that many K's in a start.  The offense had more doubles (6) than runs (4) yday, but is hitting only .211 collectively its last four road games (all losses). 10* LA Angels

9* Cleveland (8:10 ET): Whoa. Wrong team favored here as despite B2B (one-run) victories in this series, the Twins remain fully entrenched in the AL Central cellar at 7-14 w/ a -19 run differential. Cleveland, expected to be a big player in the American League this season, came into this series riding high off a three-game sweep of Detroit. They've outscored opponents by seven runs so far and I'm not sure what the oddsmakers are thinking here given tonight's pitching matchup.  The Indians have lost in the final at-bat each of the first two games here in the Twin Cities, so we easily could be looking at a much different series coming into the finale. But beecause the Twins won both games, we are now able to grab the better team (Cleveland) at a very favorable price.

Cleveland's rotation took a bit of hit with the Carlos Carrasco injury, but there are still plenty of quality arms on hand here. One is tonight's starter Josh Tomlin, who has won both of his starts to the point thanks to a 1.54 ERA and 0.771 WHIP.  He's allowed just two runs and eight hits in 11 2/3 innings thus far with a 10-1 KW ratio.  The Minnesota lineup that Tomlin faces tonight is hardly a formidable one. They average only 3.4 runs per game this season and are bottom 10 in slugging as well. The Twins matched a season-high w/ 14 hits last night (had only 5 in the series opener), so I expect a sharp decrease in production here.  While Tomlin has had his share of struggles vs. this opponent, he seems to be a much better pitcher so far in 2016.

The big story here for Minnesota is that Jose Berrios makes his big league debut.  Berrios has been called into duty earlier than anticipated due to injuries to the front end of the Twins' rotation.  Granted, he brings with him a lot of promise, but I'm not sure this is a great spot for the 21-year old.  Cleveland averages 4.7 rpg on the road and 5.6 against right-handed starters.  The Tribe has also yet to lose three straight games this season. Minnesota is a team that was favored in less than a quarter of its games last season (why they turned such a big profit), so the price here definitely "raises eyebrows" as I call it a rare mistake from the linesmakers. 9* Cleveland

10* Charlotte (8:05 ET): My initial assertion, that the Hornets were the better team in the regular season compared to the Heat, didn't look so smart after the first two games of this series.  Charlotte, who has never found any kind of playoff success, got rolled in Games 1 and 2 here in Miami, losing by a combined 44 points.  But things took quite the dramatic turn once the scene shifted to the Queen City as the Hornets returned the favor with a pair of wins where they were largely in control for most of the two games. Winning Game 4 by only a four-point margin might seem to suggest otherwise, but take note the Hornets led by as many as 18 in the second half and never trailed after the midway point of the second quarter. Back in Miami, they are a solid value. Take the points.

Offensively, it's been like night and day for the Heat when it comes to home and away. The first two games of the series saw them average 119 PPG on better than 57% overall shooting, while the two games in Charlotte saw them average only 82.5 PPG on 35.5% shooting.  I realize we're now back in South Beach (where the L10 Hornets-Heat matchups have all gone Over the total!), but I don't envision an automatic "return to form" here for Miami, let alone anything resembling what we saw in the first two games of the series.  The Heat have simply looked like the older team the L2 games and I don't mean that as a compliment.  With the Game 4 win and cover, Charlotte improved to 6-2 straight up and against the spread this season after allowing 85 pts or less in its previous game. 

Three-point shooting was huge for the Hornets during the regular season, but so far in this series they're below 24 percent. I do expect that number to start to rise. What has offset the three-point shooting woes is an ability to get to the FT line as not only is Charlotte +28 in attempts compared to Miami in the series, but they're also making their free throws (82.8%).  Furthermore, there is a chance that Nick Batum - the Hornets' best two-way player, returns tonight (gametime decision). Even without him, the Hornets bench has been able to outscore their Heat counterparts by an average of 15.7 points the L3 games. Again, Charlotte had the better efficiency rating of these two teams during the regular season. 10* Charlotte

10* Under Islanders/Lightning (7:05 ET):  The Eastern Conference semifinals get underway tonight in Tampa Bay with the Lightning hosting the Islanders in Game 1. This appears to be an outstanding, and pretty even, matchup on paper.  So, I'm going to lay off the side in the series opener. But the total, despite being 5.0, offers outstanding value on the Under when you consider how Tampa Bay's first round series (eliminated Red Wings in 5 games) went. Were it not for their power play, who knows how things would have turned out for the Lightning as they scored only eight even-strength goals in the five-game series! Meanwhile, the Islanders are coming off three consecutive 2-1 finishes. Take the Under here.

Only one of the five games vs. Detroit saw more than five total goals scored. Though the power play helped Tampa Bay tremendously there, it's not like it was overly dominant. The Lightning were just 4 of 23 when on the man advantage (17.3%) vs. Detroit and that's pretty much in line with their regular season ranking (28th) when they converted at just a 15.8% clip. Really, it was just the one game (went 3 of 5 on PP) that they had any real success. Incredibly, the team has scored just one even strength goal in its last three games! Of course, it helps to have Ben Bishop (.950 save percentage in Rd 1) between the pipes and his career playoff numbers (2.08 GAA, .926 save percentage) indicate there should be no drop off here. It also helps that the Lightning's penalty killing can be relied upon. That unit ranked 7th in the regular season (84.0%) and was 24 of 25 against the Red Wings. 

What about the Islanders?  Well, they too have a strong penalty killing unit. They were 4th in regular season (84.5%) and were 13 of 15 in the six-game series vs. Florida. Also like Tampa Bay, the Isles have had difficulty scoring goals. In their past three games, they have just three in regulation and two of their five goals overall came via the power play. Keep in mind they just played B2B double overtime games!  Goaltender Thomas Griess has come in and been out of his mind, posting a .956 save percentage the last four games. Tampa Bay is 5-1-1 Under this season when playing w/ at least three days rest. 10* Under Islanders/Lightning

8* San Francisco (3:45 ET):  While it's been "just" a pair of one-run victories thus far (won 1-0 Tuesday), the Giants have a chance to sweep the struggling Padres right out of town this afternoon and they have my endorsement. In what will be a common theme in handicapping National League matchups this season, this series pits one of the supposed "haves" against one of the supposed "have nots."  Coming into the year, there were seven teams in the Senior Circuit (Cubs, Nats, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Cards, Pirates) perceived to be playoff contenders while there's a good chance that the six worst teams in baseball all end up hailing from the NL (Phils, Braves, Reds, Brewers, Rockies, Padres). Anytime you find a matchup of teams from the two disparate groups, you need to exploit it, especially if the money line is this "low."

We know that the Giants bullpen won't be taxed at all here because last night's starter Johnny Cueto went the distance (on 119 pitches) w/ 11 strikeouts.  With the quick turnaround between games, having a fresh bullpen is a big advantage for a Giants team that has beaten the Padres seven straight times dating back to last season. Meanwhile, San Diego's bullpen has had to work a total of eight innings the L3 games. Based on run differential, we can ascertain that the Giants have "underachieved" a bit this season.  Despite being only .500 (11-11) in the standings, they have outscored opponents by 12 runs this year. So, a sweep here clearly would not be surprising as they continue to get "back on track." Losers of four straight, San Diego currently has a run differential of -31, tied for fourth worst in baseball. They are, in fact, a very bad ballclub.

Another big disadvantage for the Padres in this game is that it takes place in the daytime where they are just 41-61 the L3 seasons. Incredibly, last night marked the fifth time they've been shut out this season already. They send Andrew Cashner to the bump today, but his 4.29 ERA and 1.238 WHIP aren't exactly inspiring and he's 0-4 all-time here at AT&T Park w/ a 6.91 ERA. The Giants counter w/ Jeff Samardzija, who is coming off a very strong showing in his home debut (allowed 1 ER in 7 2/3 IP) and has a 2.76 ERA in six career starts vs. San Diego.  Big time advantage for the Giants in this one. 8* San Francisco.

8* St. Louis (9:40 ET):  The Cardinals lost last night's series opener in Arizona and that has to leave them at least a little bit frustrated as they ended up scoring seven runs in a game Zack Greinke started.  Unfortunately, "you can do the math," and they ended up allowing 12 runs, nine of those coming in one fateful inning.  That one was on the St. Louis bullpen, a little uncharacteristic, as that group had been performing just fine in the early part of the season. The Redbirds come into tonight's game w/ a 10-9 record, but a run differential (+35) that's second best in all of baseball (trailing only the Cubs). Tonight's pitching matchup seems heavily slanted in their favor. Go with the road team in this one.

Carlos Martinez has opened 3-0 for the Cards in 2016, posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.  That's a "far cry" from the numbers we've seen so far from Arizona's starter, Shelby Miller, who like fellow free agent acquisition Greinke has struggled mightily. Miller has an 8.59 ERA and 1.977 WHIP in four starts, which are terrible numbers and he's failed to make it past the second inning in each of his last two starts. His walk rate has more than doubled from last season (3.20 to 6.75 per nine innings) and consider he's walked eight batters in just 3 2/3 IP his last two times out. In his first two starts here at Chase Field, Miller allowed a total of 10 runs in 11 innings. Last year, Miller could pin his poor TSR on the team (Atlanta), this year he is to blame.

Martinez has gotten plenty of run support so far from the Cardinals bats (6.0 runs per game), not that he's needed it, however.  All three starts have been quality and in his last time out, he held the Cubs to just one run and three hits over seven innings.  Over the last three seasons, the Cards have gone a remarkable 90-54 off a loss and they were also a perfect 7-0 last season vs. the D'backs (12-2 against them L3 seasons).  In two career starts vs. Arizona, Martinez has a 2.08 ERA, so I look for him to slow their offense down.  8* St. Louis

10* Under Celtics/Hawks (8:35 ET):  Consider that Game 4 of this series stayed Under the total, despite overtime. As a result, the Game 5 total is lower, but not low enough from where I sit.  Three of the four games in this series have now stayed Under the total and we've seen the oddsmakers struggle to "keep up" even though they've decreased the line with each passing game. Note that Atlanta ranked second in the league (trailing only San Antonio) in defensive efficiency during the regular season and allows only 97.2 PPG here at home.  Boston's offense seems entirely dependent on Isaiah Thomas and while that worked for them in Games 3 and 4 at home, they averaged just 86.5 PPG in the first two games here in Atlanta. Take the Under.

Game 4 was tied 92-92 at the end of regulation as neither team shot the ball well. The Hawks attempted 100 shots in the game and made only 37 of them, so that's an easy percentage to figure out. They were again just awful from three-point range (12 of 43!), finishing the two games in Boston at 21 of 79 (26.5%).  You'd expect some improvement here in their return home, but truth be told they did not shoot the ball well from three-point range in the first two games of this series either; going 16 of 56. So, they're now just 37 of 135 from behind the arc against the Celtics, which is 27.4%.  The Under is now 64-39 in the Hawks L103 playoff games overall, including 46-24 in the first round. Other than Paul Milsap (45 points), the rest of the team scored only 59 points in Game 4. Milsap is highly unlikely to match that kind of production tonight.

Boston shot just 36.3% and 31.8% in the first two games here in Atlanta. They are of course w/o Avery Bradley, a significant loss as he averaged 12.3 points per game during the regular season, second most on the team.  After falling behind by 16 points early in the second half on Sunday, the Celtics went on to shoot 56.4% the rest of the way, a level they simply will be unable to match on the road.  With the overall shooting at just below 40% through four games (both teams combined), Under is the way to go here. 10* Under Celtics/Hawks

8* Boston (7:10 ET): When they decided to pay him $217 million over the course of the next seven years, the Red Sox clearly weren't expecting to see a 7.06 ERA next to David Price's name after four starts.  Price was rocked his last time out, giving up eight runs (on eight hits) in just 3 2/3 IP.   Two of the four starts have been good, however, as he allowed only 2 ER over six and seven innings respectively against Cleveland and Toronto w/ a 19-2 KW ratio. Having alternated good and bad starts so far, it's "time" for a good one here from Price and fortunately he has the right opponent, that being the woeful Braves, who were shutout yday as they fell to 4-15 on the season. Look for Price to mow down one of the weaker National League lineups. 

Atlanta, as expected, is one of the worst teams in all of baseball. They sport MLB's worst record and only fellow Senior Circuit bottom-feeders Milwaukee and Cincinnati have worse run differentials than the Braves -26.  Like I just said earlier, they were shut out yday, losing 1-0 as they finished the game with only four hits. Also, their homer-less streak reached 14 straight games.   This is an offense scoring just 3.2 rpg while batting .227 and they have an OBP below .300 (.293).  They are last in MLB in runs scored, slugging and OPS. This all has to be "music to the ears" of Price, who has faced Atlanta three times previously and has never allowed more than two runs (1.89 ERA). This will be the weakest Braves team he's ever faced.

Also, what is really frustrating for Atlanta is that they wasted their own strong pitching performance last night. It is highly unlikely that they will allow only one run again here, even though the Red Sox lineup is w/o the DH spot in the order (that means no David Ortiz). But the Boston bats came into this series batting a collective .340 while scoring an average of 6.2 rpg and Braves starter Matt Wisler did not do well last year against American League lineups (4.24 ERA in three starts). This should be another easy one for the road team. 8* Boston

10* Toronto (6:05 ET):  Note that w/ no Western Conference games on tap, it's a bit of an early start time North of the border this evening. The Raptors and Pacers are tied at two games apiece in this series after Indiana won Gm 4 in convincing fashion, 100-83 as 1-pt dogs. They also took Gm 1 here in Toronto, 100-90 as seven-point pups and while I was on the dog there, it's going to be a different story here. Though the series is now even, none of the four individual games have been close. All games have been decided by double digits, so laying points shouldn't seem like much of an issue, plus there's the matter that Toronto is now 26-12 ATS the L38 meetings w/ Indiana here at home including 6-1 ATS L7. They are 12-3 ATS head to head w/ the Pacers overall the L3 seasons. 

Indiana is just 9-13 ATS coming off a SU win as a dog this season & 3-5 ATS after allowing 85 pts or less in its last game.  Toronto shot just 36.5% from the floor in Game 4, a number that you have to figure will improve tonight at home.  Now neither team, with the exception of the Pacers on Sunday, has shot better than 44% in any individual game of this series.  But Toronto could easily help itself by NOT missing nine free throws like they did in Game 4 and the starting backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan simply must be better as the duo shot a combined 8 of 27 from the floor, including 0 for 7 from three-point range. I think they will be better tonight. Also, the Raptors have enjoyed an advantage in rebounding in all four games and Jonas Valanciunas should have more than the six he pulled down Sunday.

Toronto is 33-10 SU at home this season with a point differential of +6.2 per game.  Indiana, who sports a losing (20-23) record, is -0.7 PPG on the road. So, while my personal power rankings might suggest that the Raptors are a tad bit overvalued in this spot, perhaps they are underrating the value of home court advantage. Credit Pacers HC Frank Vogel for making a change to his starting lineup for Game 4 (Myles Turner in for Lavoy Allen) and it working. But the Raptors will be ready for that tonight and I expect their best players to play better. 10* Toronto

10* Portland (10:35 ET):  Trailing 0-2 in the series, the Blazers "had to have" Game 3 here at home and they came through with a 96-88 win and cover, snapping a five-game ATS losing streak in the process. Of course, that victory will mean little in the "grand scheme of things" if they were to lose tonight in Game 4. I think it's curious that the Clippers come in favored by a slightly greater margin here compared to Saturday and while they may have an outstanding 20-5 ATS record as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points (7-1 this season), that trend will come to a halt here at the Moda Center where the home team is a very strong 29-13 straight up this season w/ a point differential of +5.8 PPG. Also, Portland is 26-10 ATS off a SU win as an underdog. Take the points.

After losing the first two games of the series by 20 and 21 points respectively, what changed for the Blazers in their Game 3 victory?  Well, for starters, the Clippers couldn't shoot to save their lives.  Just 40.9% overall from the field, Doc Rivers team missed 15 of its 18 three-point attempts, not to mention 10 of 23 free throws.  This line is simply moving the wrong way as the majority of teams that the Clippers have covered against as a road favorite in this range are bad teams that missed the playoffs altogether. As mentioned above, Portland has been a great home team throughout the year, particularly of late. They've won 10 of their last 11 home games with that one loss coming by only one point. The notion that the Clippers will bounce back here because of how the first two games played out is quite frankly misguided.

Another key to Saturday's victory was the Blazers' outstanding backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, who combined to score 59 points on 50% shooting.  In the first two games, they had combined for just 63 points on less than 35% shooting. So, again, you can see the effect home court has here. Portland averages 107.8 PPG at home for the season and they should still come out as the more desperate team here. 10* Portland

8* Chicago (8:35 ET):  This could end up being our only Game 7 in the opening round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. How appropriate then that it comes via what was expected to be the most competitive series of the bunch?  For my money, the Blackhawks and Blues have delivered the most entertaining series and for St. Louis the script has to see all too familiar and painful. I was on them early in the series and sure enough, they took three of the first four games, including both in Chicago. But a 3-1 series advantage has now gone away after a 4-3 double OT loss in Game 5 and a 6-3 loss in the Windy City in Game 6.  I was on the Blackhawks Saturday and will back them again here in Game 7.

The public perception here is that Chicago is the more "clutch" team. Normally, I'm one who likes to at least question or even "buck" public perception, but in this instance, the stats back up the sentiment.  Including a series two years ago where the 'Hawks came back from a 2-0 series deficit to oust the Blues in six games, the reigning and defending Stanley Cup Champions are now an incredible 33-7 in Games 5 through 7 of a playoff series under HC Joel Quenneville. There's been no evidence of any "home ice advantage" in past Game 7 scenarios as the last 43 have actually seen the road team go 22-21.

Chicago has outshot St. Louis in the series, pretty drastically in fact, by a count of 223-179.  It was a 36-28 edge in Game 6 where the Blackhawks stormed back from an early 3-1 hole to score the final five goals.  The Blues thought they finally had the goaltender that could beat Chicago in a seven-game series, but Brian Elliott has faltered badly the last two games, giving up 10 goals. Everything about this situation just screams "BLACKHAWKS!" as St. Louis has been eliminated in the first round each of the last three seasons. Chicago has also been the more physical team in this series w/ an advantage in hits similar to their edge in shots. That matters over the course of a seven-game series and a familiar scene will have the Blues once again exiting "stage right" on Monday. 8* Chicago

10* Anaheim (8:05 ET):  The road team has enjoyed tremendous success in this series (won first 4 games). However, the Ducks broke the streak on Saturday w/ a 5-2 victory at home in Game 5 to take a 3-2 series lead. Will Nashville now earn its first home win of the series? I don't think so.  The Predators have been outscored 12-3 over the course of the last three games as Anaheim goalie Frederik Andersen has taken control of the series with a .966 save percentage. I had the Ducks rated as the better team coming into the series and tonight they finish the Preds off.

Both of these teams rank in the top four in Fenwick and top seven in Corsi, so I'm not surprised that it's been such a competitive series.  But the bottom line is that the Ducks finished the regular season #1 in goals allowed, not to mention they have the best special teams in the sport (#1 power play, #1 penalty kill).  Scoring was a big problem at the start of the season, but they ended up finishing 17th in goals per game, which is impressive when you consider they were 30th at the halfway point.  They are off their highest scoring game of the series and have an 18-11 SU record after scoring 4+ goals in their previous game.

The fact that Anaheim has stormed back to take control of the series, despite being 2 for 19 on the power play, is not a good sign for Nashville. The Preds' own power play has done nothing in the series, going 1 for 22 including 0 for 11 in the two home games. (That was somewhat to be expected). The Nashville franchise has NEVER come back to win a series in which it trailed 3 games to 2 (0 for 8) and while I suppose "there's a first time for everything," the bottom line is the Preds are a fairly mediocre team that has lost one more game than they've won in 2015-16.  They are averaging just 1.8 goals per game in the series and netminder Pekka Rinne has a save percentage of just .889.  10* Anaheim

8* Detroit (7:10 ET): It was not a pleasant weekend for the Tigers, who were swept here at home by the Indians. I was on Cleveland in two of the games, taking them at +123 on the money line in Friday's series opener and after a 10-1 Tribe win on Saturday, I came back w/ them again yday (won 6-3). Sunday ended up being another bad day at the plate for Detroit, who has now scored only five runs over its last four games (all losses) w/ just 18 total hits. As dire as this all sounds, I have a far more positive outlook on the Tigers today. That's obviously because they'll have Jordan Zimmerman on the bump. Zimmerman, who has yet to allow a single run this season, should lead his team to victory Monday.

Oakland won its first seven road games, but has since dropped two in a row, both in Toronto over the weekend. Their story was similar to that of the Tigers as the A's bats went cold Saturday and Sunday, producing just six runs and 12 hits.  Two of their five hits yesterday were solo home runs. So they figure to struggle again here against Zimmerman, who is currently working on a 19+ inning scoreless streak. Opposing hitters are batting just .211 against him so far and he's off his best start to date as he struck out eight Royals while walking just one in a 3-2 win Wednesday. Oakland's task here becomes even tougher if they don't have Jed Lawrie (.292 hitter) in the lineup again tonight. Very few A's hitters have faced Zimmerman previously.

Similar to Zimmerman, Oakland's Kendall Graveman has pitched well this season. Just not quite as well. Graveman did snap a personal six-game losing streak his last time out by allowing just one run and three hits in 6 1/3 IP at Yankee Stadium.  But it's interesting that while Zimmerman's number of walks have decreased with each passing start, Graveman's walk rate has progressively risen.  While Detroit's recent numbers at the plate don't exactly inspire a ton of confidence here, Oakland's season long numbers are worse (bottom eight in most key categories) and that includes a .234 team batting average (28th in MLB). The Tigers have the superior starting pitcher and that's the key here. 8* Detroit

5* NY Mets (7:10 ET):  I readily admit that laying this kind of juice isn't always the best way to go, but in the case of a mismatch like this one, there's no reason to worry.  There is a giant gap between the contenders and the also-rans in the National League and it's something I'll be looking to exploit throughout the season. Obviously, you can count the reigning Senior Circuit champs among the former group and after a bit of a slow start, they have won three straight and now own a +22 run differential. Cincinnati is expected to be among the very worst teams in baseball and while they've been a bit of a surprise thus far at 9-10, they have a MLB-worst -40 run differential. With Noah Syndergaard on the hill, this should be an easy one for the Metropolitans.

Syndergaard enters Monday's series opener as the proud owner of a 0.90 ERA and 0.950 WHIP.  He's allowed only two earned runs in three starts and checks in with a superb 29-4 KW ratio.  His only start at home thus far was his most impressive to date as he mowed down 12 Marlins. But he was working opposite Jose Fernandez and the Mets actually lost that game, 2-1.  He came back last Monday and delivered a 5-2 win over the Phillies, allowing just one run and five hits. Working on six days rest here is pretty significant, especially facing such an inferior foe. Ten times in his career, Syndergaard has started w/ at least six days rest and he's posted a 2.62 ERA with 80 K's (in 65 1/3 IP). Syndergaard also tops all of MLB w/ an average fastball velocity of 98.4 MPH.

Cincinnati has lost eight straight times to the Mets, so that's not a good sign.  Nor was suffering three losses by seven runs or more to the Cubs over the weekend. Twice, the Reds were shutout in that series and the lineup is now batting a collective .208 the last seven games. Raisel Iglesias isn't necessarily a bad starter (2-1 team start record), but the problem is that behind him is a bullpen which could end up being MLB's worst this season (currently 8.22 ERA on the road). Overall, the Reds are just 2-11 vs. the Mets the L3 seasons. 5* NY Mets

10* Under White Sox/Blue Jays (7:07 ET): Both of these teams enjoyed nice weekends as Chicago swept Texas (they were at home) while Toronto took two of three from Oakland here at Rogers Centre. We know what side of the runs scored vs. allowed ledger that the Blue Jays are strongest on, but for the White Sox it's been a different story so far as they've given up the second fewest number of runs (trailing only Washington) in all of MLB. Their pitching staff is #1 in the American League in ERA, WHIP, opponents' batting average and has allowed the fewest home runs. It was originally set to be the ace of the staff, Chris Sale, pitching today, but instead it will be Miguel Gonzalez. No matter; we now are able to grab a better O/U line as I see this series opener staying Under the total.

By the way, Toronto has a pretty good starter going tonight as Marcus Stroman toes the rubber. I've always been pretty consistent that WHIP is a better predictor of future performance than ERA and if that continues to be the case, then Stroman appears to be in line for another very strong season. While his ERA may be a somewhat subpar 4.13, Stroman has a WHIP of just 0.988 as he's put on only 20 baserunners in 20 1/3 innings. In his first start of 2016, he was unfortunate in that he gave up five runs on only six hits, but since then has settled down w/ B2B quality outings that saw the Blue Jays win both times.  Both starts also ended up staying Under the total.

Speaking of the Under, that's the way each of the White Sox last eight games have gone. In only one game during that span has the pitching staff allowed more than three runs and that same game just so happened to see the offense get shut out. The move from Sale to Gonzalez may not seem ideal, but consider the latter has a 2.60 ERA in 12 career starts vs. Toronto. All that experience comes from Gonzalez's time with Baltimore.  The righty looked strong down in Triple-A Charlotte, posting a 2.45 ERA in his two starts.  Toronto, while hot at the plate lately, is still down offensively compared to last year. They'd actually gone Under in eight straight games themselves prior to the Oakland series. 10* Under White Sox/Blue Jays

10* Over Cavaliers/Pistons (8:35 ET):  Game 3 of this series was well on its way to going Over the total (which is how I played it), that was until a 40-pt fourth quarter where Cleveland took control and felt content (as they should have) to “sit” on the ball and force Detroit into long possessions on the defensive end. Still though, LeBron and company have scored at least 100 pts in every game in this series and can now close things out Sunday w/ one more victory. The key will be whether or not the Pistons “show up” as no team has ever overcome a 3-0 series deficit and this group happens to be young and competing in their first postseason together. But they were a strong home team during the regular season and I think they’ll at least score enough to help this game finish Over the total.

Unless something changes between now and tipoff (and I don’t anticipate that it will), this will be the first time in the series that we have an O/U line below 200 points.  This bodes well if you believe in trends as Detroit is a perfect 8-0 Over this season, in home games, if the O/U line falls into the 195 to 199.5 point range.  Though they scored just 91 points here in Game 3, the Pistons do average 104.7 PPG at home for the season.  I suspect that they won’t be as bad as they were from three-point range (6 of 23) or the free throw line (68.4%) as they were Friday night. Consider that on two-point attempts, the team was an outstanding 30 of 51, nearly 60 percent.  Defensively, Cleveland had not held B2B opponents under 100 points since mid-March. 

As for the Cavs, I see little – if anything – being different for them on the offensive end in this game.  When Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love both contribute the way they have been the L3 games, this is a very difficult team to beat. Irving is averaging 26.3 PPG in the series and has been a problem for Detroit to defend all year long.  I’ve actually been more impressed with Love though, as he has posted double doubles (in points & rebounds) in all three games. LeBron James shot only 8 of 24 from the field in Game 3, so you have to figure that percentage goes up here.  As a team, the Cavs have made at least 12 three-pointers in every game in the series. 10* Over Cavaliers/Pistons

9* Boston (8:05 ET):  Saturday offered up a bit of a reprieve for an Astros team that has been a mighty disappointment so far in 2016.  Even after the 8-3 win yday, Houston still is just 6-12 this season w/ a run differential (-18) worse than every other American League club with the exception of Minnesota. So, it appears as if they are mispriced for tonight’s game, especially considering an 0-5 WL record off a win so far this season.  The Red Sox won here on Friday and I see them taking the series.

Southpaw Henry Owens, fresh off an impressive stint at Triple-A Pawtucket, is set to make his first big league start of 2016 and he figures to do just fine against an Astros team that thus far is 0-2 in games vs. left-handed starters. Furthermore, Houston came into yday’s game hitting a collective .215 its L10 games with an average of just 2.7 runs scored per game.  In his three starts in Pawtucket, Owens struck out 23 batters in 18 innings and posted a 1.00 ERA. 

As for the Red Sox offense, it should improve from Saturday due to two factors. One is the likely return of SS Xander Bogaerts to the lineup. He sat out yday after being hit on the wrist by a pitch on Friday.  Bogaerts is hitting above .300 his last seven games and was 2 for 4 w/ a double in the series opener. The other reason to be optimistic about Boston on the runs scored side of the ledger is that they will get to face Scott Feldman, who has a 9.37 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Red Sox, including 15.23 in the last three.  Feldman has an 0-3 team start record so far this season (1.631 WHIP) and behind him is a bullpen that certainly has regressed (as many expected) in 2016 w/ a 4.37 ERA.   9* Boston

10* Boston (6:05 ET): It’s always worth taking note of public perception over the course of any playoff series and in the case of this one, there’s been a rather seismic shift. For the first two games, which took place in Atlanta, the public liked the dog (Boston) and came away with what some would say was a “fortunate” split as Gm 1 saw the Celtics rally back from a 19-pt deficit to “steal” the cover (but not win the game). Game 3 saw public opinion rather divided, but in what was an obvious “must win” for Boston, they came through with a 111-103 victory as three-point chalk.  Now, for Game 4, I’m a little surprised to find that the majority of bettors are taking the Hawks.  What I surmise is that those bettors are remembering how the first two games went and that the Celtics are without Avery Bradley. But, at home, Boston remains a strong value laying this small of a number.

There were two significant changes that took place for Boston in Game 3 compared to the first two games of the series. One is that they got to the free throw line more, a lot more. In fact, their 33 FT attempts in Game 3 were more than Games 1 & 2 combined (31). This is typical of when a series changes venues.  Note, as the road team, Atlanta got to the line only 21 times in Game 3 after a total of 51 attempts in the first two games at home.   The other major change was Isaiah Thomas, who went for 42 points on Friday night. I’m not sure that kind of individual performance can be counted upon again, but note the team does average 106.2 PPG here at home, for the season, and Atlanta’s defense significantly worsens when they are the road team. By the way, Boston did lead Game 3 by as many as 20 points, so the final score is a bit misleading.

It appears as if three-point shooting, as it so often is in today’s NBA, might be the key to winning games in this series. The Hawks did win Game 1 despite a dreadful 5 of 27 night from behind the arc, but came back in Game 2 to make 11 of 29 attempts. They regressed back to 25% (9 of 36) in Game 3 and I wouldn’t look for that number to go up very much this evening as Boston is holding teams to just 31.1% on 3-pt attempts at home this season. Meanwhile, after going a miserable 16 of 63 from 3-pt range themselves in the first two games, the Celtics were up to 11 of 32 in Game 3.  The fact that Thomas is not suspended today (despite blatantly hitting Atlanta’s Dennis Schroeder) looms large in handicapping this game. 10* Boston

10* Arizona (4:10 ET):  The Diamondbacks and Pirates have split the first two games of this series and for today’s rubber match I’m favoring the home team, who will be sending Robbie Ray to the hill. Pittsburgh used the long ball (hit three home runs) to take Friday’s opener, 8-7, and I was actually on them in that spot. I laid off yday as the D’backs returned the favor, hitting a pair of home runs en route to a dominant 7-1 victory. Looking at the two Sunday starters, it looks pretty clear which will be more inclined to serve up a dinger or two and that’s Francisco Liriano, who has allowed three over the course of his last two starts. Liriano was hit hard in those two outings, both on the road, while Ray is coming off his best outing to date. I’ve got Arizona winning this series. 

The Pirates are on pace to give up a lot more runs this year compared what they allowed in 2015 and a lot of that is tied to a bullpen which appears to be in major regression mode.  Last year saw the relievers post an otherworldly 2.67 ERA (#1 in MLB) over the course of 522 innings. This year, that same group has a 4.48 ERA and 1.340 WHIP, allowing an average of 2.0 rpg.  They were responsible for giving up five runs in the eighth inning yday. Of course, the starting pitching has been less than stellar as well. In his last two starts, Liriano has allowed a total of seven runs (in just 9 1/3 IP) and has a negative KW ratio. He’s also allowed the three home runs I mentioned earlier. Liriano was lucky to beat the D’backs last season as he allowed five runs in seven innings of work.

Arizona, who has won six of its last seven games overall, should not have much concern with its starting pitching in this game. Ray is coming off six shutout innings of five-hit ball at San Francisco on Tuesday and before that had allowed just 2 ER in each of his first two outings. All told, he’s given up only 13 hits in 18 1/3 IP.   Ever since sweeping that first series (at home) against St. Louis, the Pirates are only 6-9. Meanwhile, Arizona has outscored its opponents by nearly three runs per game during this 6-1 stretch of theirs and has the offense to match Pittsburgh.  10* Arizona

8* Golden State (3:30 ET):  Houston pulled the upset in Game 3, winning 97-96 as 3.5-pt home dogs. The Warriors were of course without Steph Curry (he’ll be back on the floor today), but the game was not without controversy as afterwards the league basically admitted that the officials did an atrocious job down the stretch. There were five blown calls in the final two minutes alone, the most noteworthy being the Rockets’ James Harden getting away with a push off on Andre Iguodala on what turned out to be the game winning shot. I don’t see Houston getting that kind of “help” here in Game 4 and now they have to go back to dealing with Curry. The better team will reassert itself and take control of the series with a blowout victory here. Lay the points.

The first thing to take note of here is that the Warriors have not dropped back to back games all season long.  Off their nine regular season losses, the team had a scoring differential of +14.5 points per game.  They are the only team in league history never to lose B2B games in a regular season.  The second thing to take note of is, obviously, the return of Curry. Other than Marreese Speights of all people, Golden State has really struggled from three-point range the last two games.  Factoring out Speights, the team is just 25 percent from behind the arc. Curry, if you recall, was an incredible 5 of 7 from distance back in Game 1.  He changes the entire dynamic for the Houston defense, which of course isn’t very good to begin with.

Off a SU win as an underdog, the Rockets are just 4-9 against the spread.  This is a high number attached to this game, but remember that Houston is the worst defensive team left in the field (allow 106.3 PPG).  It’s a little surprising to see that the Warriors have shot only 43% in two of the three games in this series (Game 2 being the exception), but then again Curry’s absence led them to the dreadful 6 of 25 performance from three-point range that was touched on earlier in this analysis.  That percentage (24.0) was the team’s worst in its last 24 games, but the game now changes w/ Curry, a 45.4% shooter from 3-pt range, returning.  I have zero problem with this pointspread as you have to remember the Rockets are team that has been outscored over the course of the regular season while GSW was +11.6 in points per 100 possessions during the regular season.  8* Golden State

8* Dallas (3:05 ET): The Stars have blown two chances to close out Minnesota so far as what was once a 3-0 series lead has now turned into only a 3-2 series lead. Game 5 wasn’t decided until overtime, but while the Wild may have won, it was Dallas that held a rather significant 41-24 edge in shots. Time after time, in these playoffs, we’ve seen teams that lose with similar edges in shots come back and win the next time out. That’s what I anticipate here from the Western Conference’s #1 seed, who is simply too good to let this series continue on like this. Remember that going into Game 4, the Wild had lost had lost seven straight times and scored only seven goals in the process.  Their scoring output from Friday was highly irregular. 

As for Dallas, high scoring games were commonplace throughout the regular season. After all, this is the team that led the league in scoring (3.2 goals per game). So, asking them to repeat their Game 5 output of four goals on 41 shots is not out of the realm of possibility. Note that the team is 23-14 this season after scoring four or more goals in their previous game. Now, coming into these playoffs, there was some legit concern regarding the Stars propensity to give up their fair share of goals. They ranked just 23rd in the regular season in goals allowed and have now allowed five goals in both series losses. But good news comes in the form of a 14-6 record in games immediately following allowing 4+ goals.

Minnesota’s goaltending situation is hardly ideal right now. Devan Dubnyk has an .892 save percentage in the series and that’s after facing 30 or fewer shots in three of the games. It’s not like John Tortorella’s other option (Darcy Kuemper) is any better.  Meanwhile, if I were Dallas, I’d make a switch in goal back to Kari Lehtonen as Antii Niemi hasn’t been that effective the last two games.  Lehtonen did have a bad Game 3 (allowed five goals), but the first two games saw him stop 47 of 48 shots.  It’s pretty remarkable to see that the Wild have been able to stay in this series despite being w/o their two top forwards, Thomas Vanek and Zach Parise.  Though they are the home team this afternoon, take note that the Wild are only 22-21 here at the Xcel Center this season.  This is where their season comes to an end.  8* Dallas

8* Cleveland (1:10 ET):  The Indians have come to Detroit and taken it to the Tigers, winning 2-1 Friday (had them at +123!) and then again yday, 10-1.  The thing you have to understand with Cleveland is that they possess outstanding starting pitching. You don’t have to tell that to the Tigers, who so far have managed only six hits in the series and after facing Josh Tomlin and Corey Kluber, today they have to go up against Carlos Carrasco, who has a 3-0 TSR, 2.79 ERA and 1.035 WHIP.  Carrasco has allowed just 1 ER in B2B outings. He may not have a great history vs. Detroit, but then again Tigers starter Shane Greene has struggled in his career vs. Cleveland (9.00 ERA), so that’s a wash. Greene also is coming off a terrible outing (at Kansas City) on Tuesday and his offense seems to be in significantly worse shape. I’ll call for the Tribe to finish off the three-game sweep.

The Tigers caught me a little off-guard with a 6-2 start (I had them pegged for last in the AL Central this year), but things have since done a complete 180 degree turn as in a 2-6 record the last eight games. Four times during that stretch, they’ve been held to one run or less and now word comes down of a dreaded “closed clubhouse meeting.”  That’s never a good soign this early in the season. The last three games have seen the offense score a total of just two runs on 11 hits.  That’s also not a good sign, especially when getting set to face Carrasco, who has always had a great strikeout rate throughout his young career.  His only mistake his last time out was giving up a solo home run.  Detroit’s lineup has not homered in four games.

While I don’t have high hopes for the Tigers this year, the Indians are a team I pegged to win the division and possibly the American League pennant.  The offense finally broke out yesterday w/ a season-high 10 runs, though that was actually the third time in the last seven games they scored at least seven.  They should fare well against Greene, who allowed 7 ER his last time out, in only 4 1/3 innings.  He’s also walked seven batters in 10 1/3 IP this season.  When priced as a home underdog of +150 or less on the money line, Detroit is just 15-26 the last three seasons.  The Indians, meanwhile, are 18-11 as a ML road favorite of -125 to -150.  8* Cleveland

10* Miami (9:05 ET): After being swept in a four-game set in the previous series here at home (by Arizona), San Francisco responded by taking Friday's opener from the Marlins, 8-1. But don't make the mistake of getting too invested in the Giants here as they have to go up against Jose Fernandez tonight. Granted, Fernandez's resume shows that he's a much better pitcher at home, but he should benefit here from a pitcher friendly park. Fernandez has allowed just one run and three hits in each of his last two starts and both of those resulted in Miami victories.  It would seem as if he gives his team a massive pitching edge over the Giants, who turn to the struggling Jake Peavy in this spot. Look for the road team to square up this series at a game apiece.

Peavy's first three starts have all been terrible w/ him allowing four or more runs every time out in less than five innings. He's given up 28 hits in just 14 IP, so he not only has a 9.00 ERA, but a 2.071 WHIP as well.  Needless to say, those are really ugly numbers and even w/ Miami's offensive numbers being less than appealing, I can't see Peavy holding them in check enough to compete with Fernandez.  Had the Giants not scored 12 runs in Peavy's first start of 2016, then his team start record very likely would be 0-3. He's allowed a home run in B2B outings and his last time out saw him lose as a $1.40 favorite here at home to the Diamondbacks.

Making matters easier for Fernandez here is the fact the Giants offense has been scuffling of late.  Granted, they scored eight times last night, but that was with Jarred Cosart starting for the Marlins.  The previous three games had seen San Fran total just three runs and remember all of those games came at home.  The pitcher (Jeff Samardzija) drove in three runs last night and, sadly, he won't be in the lineup again tonight.  Fernandez should rule the night here and that will be enough for the road team to even up the series. 10* Miami

10* LA Dodgers (8:10 ET):  Apparently, Colorado didn't read any of the season previews which all had them listed among the six bottom-feeders in the National League. They're off to a surprising 9-7 start after beating the Dodgers last night (7-5), but I think we're about to see a "sense of normalcy" kick in for the Rockies, starting tonight, as they have to go up against the sensational Kenta Maeda.  Furthermore, the Rockies have still been outscored by five runs on the season, which to me says they are a little fortunate to have a winning record. Compare that run differential to the Dodgers' +18 (4th best in baseball) and you'll quickly understand that the half-game separation between these two in the standings is totally misleading. I'm counting on the road team to bounce back here. 

It all starts w/ Maeda, who through three starts has a 0.47 ERA and 0.947 WHIP.  Last time out saw him allow a run for the first time all season (19 IP), but one run was all he allowed and the team beat the Giants 3-1 (that was the Sunday Night game and I backed him).  Maeda did post a season-worst four walks, but at the same time posted a season-high seven strikeouts.  Of course, this will be his first career start at hitter-friendly Coors Field, but he figures to be supported well by a Dodgers lineup that is scoring 5.0 runs per game on the road so far.  Off a loss, this team is an outstanding 91-55 the L3 seasons.

Perhaps, it is Colorado's starter (Tyler Chatwood) that needs to be more concerned about the hitter-friendly conditions of his home park. I say that because in his lone Coors Field start thus far, Chatwood allowed five runs and 11 hits in only six innings of work.  I'm still scratching my head over his most recent performance as he went to Wrigley Field and tossed seven shutout innings of two-hit ball as the Rockies upset the Cubs 2-0.  What has to be concerning here for manager Walt Weiss is that Chatwood threw 100 pitches against the Cubs, the first time he's thrown that many in a start since late in the 2013 season.  I expect him to be ineffective tonight and for the Dodgers to show who the better team is in the National League West. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Chicago (8:05 ET): The Blackhawks staved off elimination w/ a 4-3 Game 5 win in St. Louis that required double overtime. They now can even the series up and force a deciding game (back in StL) if they can win tonight on home ice.  Meanwhile, even though they are the underdog in this game, there's obviously going to be a ton of pressure on the Blues, especially given their past playoff failures. It was only two years ago that Chicago rallied back from a two game series deficit (in the first round) to oust their division rival and now it can be "deja vu all over again."  Ironically, after they put 88 shots on goal in a pair of LOSSES the previous two games, the 'Hawks were able to win Game 5 despite a 46-35 shot DISADVANTAGE. They still have a fairly significant edge in shots for the series though and I just can't see them losing three straight times on home ice. I'm on the Blackhawks here.

Chicago was pretty dominant here at the "Madhouse on Madison" during the regular season, winning 26 of 41 games. They outscored visiting teams by nearly a full goal per game, so it was certainly more than a little surprising to see them drop both Games 3 and 4 here.  But as stated above, they did enjoy a significant edge in shots both games (88-56) and note each contest was decided by just one goal.  Game 3 saw them give up a pair of third period goals, the result of which was the first time in 75 games that they entered the final 20 minutes w/ a lead at home and lost.  Game 4 also saw them blow a 2-1 lead. But the good news is that this is a team that's "been here before" and with the Game 5 victory, the Blackhawks are now 10-3 the L3 seasons when trailing in a playoff series.

As for St. Louis, they've "been here before" as well, only history is not as kind.  Therefore, "guaranteeing" victory tonight in Chicago was probably not a wise decision by Alex Pietrangelo.  After all, his team is just 2-4 when up in a playoff series the last three years. Keep in mind that Chicago has had the lead in each of the last four games, all of which have been decided by one goal (as was Game 1, a 1-0 Blues' overtime victory).  I expect the pressure to "get to" the Blues here and for this series to go to a seventh game. 8* Chicago

10* Over Thunder/Mavericks (8:05 ET):  Dallas offered little resistance in Game 3, allowing Oklahoma City to score a whopping 131 points in a blowout loss here at home. That was in stark contrast to recent defensive performances, most notably Game 2 where they held the Thunder to just 84 points in a stunning upset victory. In fact, the Mavericks had allowed fewer than 100 points in 10 of 11 games heading into Thursday. But they clearly had no answer for an OKC offensive attack that was led by Kevin Durant's 34 points. As a team, the Thunder shot 57.7 percent from the floor, including 15 of 27 from three-point range. The last six head to head meetings here in Dallas have all gone Over the total and I don't see this one being any different. Take the Over.

While we may not be able to count on OKC matching its outstanding output from Game 3, there's definitely room for improvement with Dallas, who has been just awful from three-point range in this series. In the three games, the Mavs are shooting just 15 of 60 (25 percent!) from behind the arc.  That's well below their season average, obviously, and furthermore this is a team that averages 104.3 points per game at home this season.  The Over is a perfect 4-0 for them when they are a dog of 6.5 to 9 points here at the American Airlines Center, so history is on our side. While a bit depleted, Dallas is certainly "due" to at least get back to average as they've topped 100 pts in only three of their last 12 games and those three have seen them score 101, 102 and 103 points.

As for Oklahoma City, we know what they are capable of offensively. They finished the regular season behind only Golden State in terms of offensive efficiency and come into tonight averaging an impressive 111.4 PPG, which is actually higher than their scoring average at home!  They are 10-2 Over this season as a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. One thing holding them back, however, is the fact they also are allowing 106.1 PPG on the road this year.  For a team that regularly sees O/U lines north of 200 pts (avg O/U line this year in Thunder games is 212 pts!), the oddsmakers have been coming in "pretty low" this series. I say to look for another high scoring affair between these two tonight. 10* Over Thunder/Mavericks

8* Pittsburgh (3:05 ET):  As if winning both games at Madison Square Garden didn't make it clear, the Penguins are the significantly better team in this series and I anticipate them closing the Rangers out on Saturday.  Remember that this (the Pens) was the hottest team in the league down the stretch and with the 3-1 series advantage, they've now won 17 of their last 20 games overall.  What's real scary for Rangers' fans is that Pittsburgh has been able to dominate even w/o the services of their #1 goaltender, Marc-Andre Fleury. The Pens have been remarkably consistent with their shot totals in the series and NY goalie Henrik Lundqvist simply has not been "good enough" w/ a .900 save percentage.  Additionally, the Rangers' one big Achilles' heel (penalty killing) has, pardon the pun, "killed" them in this series.

Game 4 was the most lopsided result yet in this series as Pittsburgh prevailed 5-0, thanks to scoring three times on the power play. The Pens now have tallied seven goals in the series when on the man advantage, which even by the Rangers poor PK standards is a lot. As I wrote about in my Gm 4 analysis, New York ranked 26th in the league in penalty killing during the regular season at 78.2 percent.  That unit is at only 63% in this series and three of the four games have seen Pittsburgh get at least five power play opportunities. Meanwhile, the Rangers are just 1 for 16 when on the man advantage in the series.

Something else to remember is that of the eight first round playoff series, this one features the biggest discrepancy between the two teams in terms of possession numbers.  Pittsburgh ranked 4th in Corsi and 5th in Fenwick during the regular season while the Rangers were 25th and 23rd respectively.  The Rangers' rankings are the lowest for any playoff team, so in many ways it's not a surprise to see the Penguins in such control of this series.  Furthermore, the way that rookie Matt Murray has stepped up between the pipes for the Pens has been a real key. He's stopped 47 of 48 shots in his two starts.  Pittsburgh is 4-2 this season when coming off a shutout victory.  8* Pittsburgh

10* Toronto (3:05 ET):  The demise of the Raptors appears to have been greatly exaggerated. Since dropping Game 1 of this series, at home, they've stormed back by posting B2B double-digit victories where they've held the Pacers to an average of just 86 points per game. Going back two full seasons, Toronto is now 12-2 ATS in 14 head to head matchups with Indiana and that includes a 6-1 ATS record on the road. After leading wire to wire in Game 2, the Raps essentially did the same thing in Game 3, so they've really taken control of things and keep in mind that's with their top two scorers, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan - both being subpar and inefficient. Indiana simply doesn't seem to have an answer for Toronto's better depth or interior dominance. I'll lay the small number here.

Toronto's starting backcourt (DeRozan & Lowry) shot a combined 15 of 63 from the floor in the first two games, including an odious 1 of 17 from three-point range. While still not up to par in Game 3, both players were a lot better as they each contributed 21 points. But the key for the Raptors in this series has clearly been Jonas Valanciunas, who is dominating the boards w/ an average of 16 rebounds per game. Valanciunas is the primary reason that Toronto has a +10.7 rebound (per game) edge in the series as well as outscoring Indiana by 13.3 PPG in the paint.  Additionally, defensive specialist DeMarre Carroll has shown why the team signed him away from Atlanta. In the two games that he's started (the last two), the Raptors defense has been significantly better. Indiana shot just 38.2% in Game 3 and scored a season-low 36 first half points.

While Toronto has been fortunate to have its supporting cast "step up" in the series, the same cannot be said for Indiana.  Paul George has seen his scoring decline with each passing game and Monta Ellis had only seven points on Thursday.  No one else has really been able to contribute offensively and with the Pacers getting dominated on the glass, I'm not sure who would be able to even fill that void. Those anticipating an Indiana bounce back will be sad to hear that the team is 4-12 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a home loss. 10* Toronto

8* NY Yankees (1:05 ET): At "long last," the Yankees broke their losing streak last night (at three games), but still this is a ballclub that has just two wins in its last nine games overall.  Last night's 6-3 victory marked just the fourth time this season that they topped four runs. One of those runs came via Jacoby Ellsbury's steal of home, however, there were still enough positive signs coming out of yday's game to come back and endorse the Pinstripes here. As an "added bonus," they have Masahiro Tanaka on the bump this afternoon and he's never lost in three career starts vs. the Rays.  Working on a full five days rest here, Tanaka should be at his best and that should be more than enough for the Yanks to win again

Through 16 games, the Tampa Bay offense has scored only 55 runs. Only three teams - the White Sox, Angels and Phillies - have scored fewer here in 2016.  The fact that they are hitting below .200 (.194) against right-handed starters does not bode well for a matchup with Tanaka, who as I said earlier has never lost to them.  He has a 2.70 ERA in three career matchups with the Rays and has not allowed more than 2 ER in any of his three starts so far in 2016.  The team has won each of his last two outings and is now 31-17 with him on the mound the L3 seasons.

Tampa Bay counters with Blake Snell, who is making his big league debut here.  Snell certainly carries a lot of promise, but this is a big step up.  The Yankees typically have one of the highest scoring offenses in the game and are averaging 4.7 runs per game here in the Bronx.  Furthermore, Joe Girardi's club has gone 65-49 in day games the last three seasons. Snell figures to get little in the way of run support as the scuffling TB lineup has scored three runs or less in seven of its last nine games.  I look for Snell to struggle in his first big league outing and for the Yankees to post B2B victories for the first time since a 4-2 start to the season.  8* NY Yankees

9* Over Sharks/Kings (10:35 ET):  This series has seen the road team win all but one of the four games, that being the last one, which ended up being a 3-2 Sharks' win, giving them a 3-1 series lead.  Of course, we've "been here before" as it was only two years ago that San Jose held a 3-0 series lead over the Kings and ended up not advancing. But the success that the road team has enjoyed in this series has been a carryover from the regular season when the visitor won four of five head to head matchups.  Incredibly, the Sharks are now a perfect 4-0 at Staples Center this season, but then again they did have the league's best road record during the regular season. Despite all that, I'm going to lay off the side and instead look at the total, which I feel is a better value.  Take the Over in this one.

San Jose averages 3.0 goals per game on the road this season. That despite averaging only 27.7 shots, so that's a very impressive 11.0 shooting percentage they have. Kings goaltender Jonathan Quick only has a .905 save percentage in this series and keep in mind he's facing a team that was fourth in the league overall in goals per game during the regular season, not to mention third on the power play.  All three of the Sharks goals in Game 4 came with a man advantage and they've scored at least one PP goal in three of the four games in this series. The power play is now converting at a near 29% clip vs. the Kings this year and that's a big reason why Quick has a very subpar 3.31 goals against average vs. this team in 2015-16.

Quick, quite frankly, has been outplayed in this series by former teammate Martin Jones.  But don't be surprised if a Kings team that averages 31.7 shots per game gets its fair share of chances tonight and coverts at least a couple times. While Games 2 and 3 of this series were low-scoring, keep in mind every other time these two teams have played this year, there has been at least five total goals scored.  That includes a high-scoring Game 1 here in Los Angeles, the result of which was a 4-3 San Jose victory. Regardless of who comes out on top tonight, I imagine they'll do so in a relatively high-scoring manner. 9* Over Sharks/Kings

9* Under Mariners/Angels (10:05 ET): Note that there has been a pitching change for the Mariners, Felix Hernandez to Hisashi Iwakuma. The play still stands! But how about tonight's starter for the Angels? Nick Tropeano has a 0.84 ERA in his two starts so far, having allowed just one run in 10+ IP.  Therefore, with the way the Angels have been hitting (or should I say have NOT been hittng?), this looks like an easy Under call to me.  The Seattle offense, which typically fails to show up for him anyway, has been held to three runs or fewer in 10 of 15 games this season.  Again, go with the Under.

The Angels won yday despite scoring only three runs themselves and have now seen the Under cash in each of their last five games.  Only once during that time have they scored more than three runs and that game resulted in a 7-0 shutout win for them anyway. Though Mike Trout is 5 for 6 at the plate the L2 games, I don't see the rest of lineup getting back on track here against Iwakuma. The Halos offensive numbers so far have been downright woeful as they are batting just .200 at home and have just 13 hits the L3 games. 

Seattle scored 10 runs yday, but that was the same number that they had scored in their previous four games combined.  None of Hernandez's three starts this year have seen more than five total runs scored and the pitcher has certainly done his part by allowing only nine hits in 18 innings and four runs, two unearned.  But it's a similar story with Tropeano for the Angels as both of his starts have stayed Under.  Tropeano has given up only four extra base hits in the two starts and like Hernandez, no home runs.   Seattle comes in hitting just .222 for the season and has an on base percentage lower than .300.  This has all the makings of a pitcher's duel and a low-scoring affair.  9* Under Mariners/Angels

8* San Antonio (9:35 ET): While traditionally a home team down 0-2 in the series and coming off a blowout loss might offer something in the way of value (especially taking this many points), the fact is little case can be made at this point for Memphis being even remotely competitive with San Antonio.  Yes, Houston did just beat Golden State last night. But, as you know, the Warriors didn't have Steph Curry.  Here, the Grizzlies are the team that's dealing with injuries - a ton of them for that matter - as they came into the playoffs down two starters (Mike Conley and Marc Gasol) and with little chance. The Spurs have held them to an average of just 71 points through the first two games and like I said, there's just no case to be made for Memphis to even win a game in this series.  Lay the points.

What's incredible about the Grizzlies, a playoff team mind you, is that they have now dropped 12 of their last 13 games! The last four losses have all been by margins greater than 20 points! Seven of the 12 losses have been by double digits. They've now played the Spurs six times this season and only once have they stayed within single digits. That was actually in San Antonio.  I talked about this during the regular season, but Memphis was quite fortunate to finish with a winning record as no team had a greater disparity between actual and expected wins (using YTD point differential). For the season, they are being outscored by almost three points per game, which may not sound like a lot, but it's practically unheard of for a postseason participant. Honestly, the Grizz probably should have won only 34 games.

San Antonio was of course #1 in defensive efficiency during the regular season, turning in the best mark in that department in over a decade.  Facing a starting five of Zach Randolph, Matt Barnes, Chris Andersen, Jordan Farmer and Vince Carter almost seems unfair.  The Spurs are 14-8 ATS this season after allowing 85 pts or less in their last game and have won twice here in Memphis this season by an average of 17 PPG. Remember that the Spurs finished the reg season with a per game point differential of +10.6.  8* San Antonio

6* Dallas (9:35 ET): Off a 3-2 win in Minnesota, the Stars now have a chance to close out the Wild at home tonight and I like their chances. While they were actually outshot in both games at Minnesota (just 39 shots total), the league's #1 offense still found a way to score six goals and you have to figure they'll be more active around the net tonight. At home, the Stars are averaging 32.6 shots per game, the result of which has been 3.3 goals per game. Minnesota has won only one of its last nine contests and tonight just seems like a likely end to their season, especially considering the only time they've been able to score more than two goals during this 1-8 stretch was the Game 3 victory.  The price is steep, but justified on the Stars.

Dallas has won eight in a row at home and was a Western Conference best 28-11-2 on home ice during the regular season.  That record is now 30-11-2 following the first two games of this series where they held the Wild to only one goal.  It appears as if the Game 4 starter, Antii Niemi, will be back between the pipes tonight for Dallas after making 28 saves Wednesday night.  Niemi now has a .940 save percentage his last four starts. Either he or Kari Lehtonen (.923 save percentage L4 starts) would be fine, truth be told, as Minnesota has totaled only 14 goals in its last nine games and remember five of those came in Game 3. So, that leaves them w/ only nine goals scored in the other eight contests. That simply won't get it done against the Stars.

Even more concerning for Minnesota is how Dallas got its power play going in Game 4, scoring on both opportunities. This was the league's fourth ranked power play during the regular season, but they went just 1 for 13 through the first three games of this series.  Of course, Minnesota is really weak when it comes to penalty killing (27th), so that's a major problem as is goalie Devan Dubnyk's .888 save percentage in the series.  The Wild have lost 25 of their last 33 visits to Dallas, including three of four this season and in none of those four games have they scored more than twice. I do believe that this series is over. 6* Dallas

9* Cleveland (7:10 ET):  Interestingly, both Cleveland sports teams (Cavs and Indians) will be in Detroit tonight. The disappointing Indians arrive in the Motor City a game below .500 following yday's 10-7 loss in extra innings to the Mariners. Unlike the Cavs, the Tribe are not favored here, but they are a great value, especially w/ Josh Tomlin on the mound.  Detroit, meanwhile, sends Justin Verlander to the hill. One bad start has skewed his numbers, but the fact is it's been two years since he's been able to beat Cleveland. It's been a pretty good start to the season overall for the Tigers, but the offense was shut out yday (4-0 in Kansas City) and figures to not do much here either. I look for the Indians to come in and take tonight's opener.

Because of rain, Tomlin has made only one start so far this season. It was a gem as he allowed just one run on four hits last Saturday against the Mets and the result was a 7-5 win for the Tribe.  Since then, the team has dropped three of four, but it was nice to see the offense come alive Thursday after scoring just six runs total the previous three games. The Indians probably won't need to score many runs tonight considering the way Tomlin has pitched dating back to last August.  He has a 9-1 TSR his L10 starts, allowing 2 ER or fewer seven times.  One of those was against Detroit, who he went the distance against while allowing just one run on four hits.  I'll look for something similar here tonight.

Cleveland was expected to compete for not just the division title, but also the AL pennant, this year. So they need to get things going in a hurry.  Fortunately, they've fared well in the recent past vs. Verlander, who is 0-4 w/ a 5.19 ERA his last seven starts against them.  After allowing seven runs in 4 1/3 IP vs. Pittsburgh on April 11th, Verlander looked as if he might be in for another disastrous outing Saturday vs. Houston as he gave up a pair of first inning home runs.  But the offense bailed him and he did wind up settling down after that.  Still though, I'm not necessarily ready to "buy" the Tigers, who had only five hits in yday's game. The Indians are 10-6 the L3 seasons after giving up 10+ runs the previous game. 9* Cleveland