8* Portland (10:10 ET): The Blazers may officially be at “rock-bottom” right now as they are coming off back to back losses, both at home, to Houston. The team has won just twice since the All-Star Break (in 15 tries), is without Damian Lillard for the rest of the season, and is now bottom five in my power ratings. But something will have to give here as Portland hosts an Oklahoma City team that has just three wins since the Break and two of them came before March 3rd. The Thunder have lost 11 of their last 12. 

Now OKC has been covering the spread pretty regularly. They come into tonight on a six-game ATS win streak. However, they were underdogs in all six of those contests. Tonight will be just the THIRD time all season that the Thunder are favored to win and the FIRST on the road. This is a team that is 11-26 SU away from home and scoring just 102.5 PPG. The Thunder are 30th (i.e. dead last) in the league in scoring. GETTING points to go against them on the road is a gift, no matter who the opponent may be. 

Earlier I mentioned that the Blazers don’t have Lillard. Well, OKC has been without its top scorer, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, for three of the past four games and there is talk the team may “shut him down” for the remainder of the regular season. The Thunder had just nine players available on Saturday when they lost 113-107 in Denver. The only win for the Thunder in the last three weeks came at home against an Orlando team that is tied for the worst record in the league. At home, Portland plays with pride tonight. 8* Portland

10* Toronto (7:40 ET): By virtue of picking up their sixth consecutive win last night, 134-112 over Minnesota, Boston is now in first place in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics have won 10 of 11 overall and are #2 overall (behind the Suns) in my personal power rankings. But they probably wish they had Monday off as they come into this game at Toronto with the potential of being extremely short-handed. Al Horford and Robert Williams are already listed as out while both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown (65 combined points Sunday) are dealing with sore knees. 

If Boston is the hottest team in the East, then Toronto is not far behind. The Raptors have won 8 of their last 10 games to climb into the top six. With six of their final eight regular season games in Canada, they’ve got an excellent shot at avoiding the play-in round. The team is off one of its highest scoring efforts of the season on Saturday as they destroyed Indiana by a score of 131-91. They were up 28 in the first half and never looked back. 

Though Boston is trying to hold on to the top spot, they are in a tougher spot (back to back) and this one might mean more to the Raptors, who are in a tight three-way race to avoid the play-in round. Toronto also has double revenge after losing the last two meetings to the Celtics. The teams have not met since November. Another key edge for the home team is that they will be at full strength. Everything sets up beautifully for the Raptors. 10* Toronto

8* Under Celtics/Raptors (7:40 ET): I also like the Under here. The Celtics shot 56.3% from the floor last night and made 17 threes. Don’t expect them to match those numbers in the second night of a back to back, especially if they end up being extremely undermanned. On the flip side, the Raptors are off their third highest-scoring effort of the season and won’t be able to match their offensive output from the last game either. They shot 60.9% from the field and were 15 of 32 from three-point range. 

While I do like Toronto to cover the spread here, look for Boston to play better defense than they did last night vs. Minnesota. The Celtics are #1 in the league in scoring defense and efficiency. The T’wolves, who play at the fastest pace in the league, shot 53.6% overall and were 14 of 32 from behind the arc last night. Both of these teams are in the bottom seven in the league in pace. Toronto has held three of its last four opponents to 104 points or less. The Under is 10-4 their L14 games and 2-0 this season after their previous two 130+ point efforts. The Under has also hit in all three previous head to head meetings between these teams this season. 8* Under Celtics/Raptors

10* Charlotte (7:40 ET): Brooklyn treated me to a win last night as they routed Miami, 110-95, on the road. But I wouldn’t trust the Nets laying this many points in the second half of a back to back, even though Kyrie Irving (unvaccinated) is now eligible to play home games. Credit the Nets for winning seven of their last nine games, but this is a team still destined for the play-in round, same as Sunday’s opponent, who has won six of its last seven games. This seems like a great spot to take the points. 

The Hornets just beat Utah on Friday night, 107-101 as a four-point underdog. That was a game where I cashed the Under. It capped a solid homestand for Charlotte, but the team has also won its last three road games - by an average of more than 20 PPG! The Hornets continued to be underrated by oddsmakers and overlooked by the public. But they are one of the league’s top five scoring teams and when you average 114.7 PPG, you’ll cover more often than not, especially as an underdog. On the road, Charlotte’s scoring average actually goes up to 116.6! 

Brooklyn has been a disaster at home this season, going 8-26 ATS. Most will attribute that to not having Irving, but overall the Nets are just 15-30 ATS when favored, home or road. They are 4-12 ATS when off a double digit win and 3-8 ATS in the second night of a back to back (2-10 straight up). So, no matter what way you look at it, this is a bad spot for the home favorite. They had two days off prior to last night’s game, after previously losing to Ja Morant-less Grizzlies. 10* Charlotte

8* Under Jazz/Mavericks (7:40 ET): Utah has lost three straight, its worst losing streak since a stretch in January when it dropped 11 of 13 games (had a 5-game and 4-game losing skid during that stretch). This recent skid has dropped the Jazz into a fourth place tie with the team they’ll face tonight, Dallas, who is also entering in off a loss. You may recall that I played the Jazz Under the total their last time out and that was an easy win as they and the Hornets combined for only 208 points (O/U line closed at 228). Tonight’s O/U line isn’t quite as high, but the opponent is also better defensively. Going Under again. 

Dallas has seen the Under hit in each of its last three games. As mentioned above, the Mavs’ most recent game was a loss. They fell 116-95 in Minnesota, a result which was doubly bad as it means no ground was gained on Utah and the T’wolves (and Nuggets) are breathing down the Mavs’ neck. Unders are nothing new for Dallas as they are the #1 Under team in the NBA this season and it’s been home games mostly responsible for that. The Under is 26-10-1 in Mavericks’ home games and the primary reason for that is they are allowing an average of just 102.1 PPG here. 

Utah has failed to score its season average in four consecutive contests, which is likely tied to them being without Bojan Bogdanovic, who is their second leading scorer. He’ll again be out on Sunday. The Jazz’s scoring has also always been lower on the road (110.7) compared to the road (116.3). Dallas did not shoot well in Minnesota Friday night, but any gains made at the offensive end tonight will be offset by improvement at the defensive end. They let the T’wolves shoot 51.2%, which was the highest percentage by any Mavs’ opponent since 2/25. When these teams met here in Dallas three weeks ago, the Mavs won 111-103. 8* Under Jazz/Mavericks

10* Over Miami FL/Kansas (2:20 ET): Well, Kansas is certainly the team we expected to be here. The Jayhawks are the only remaining 1-seed in the Tournament after both Gonzaga and Arizona met their demise in the Sweet 16. KU was able to outlast Providence on Friday, winning 66-61. But for the second straight time they did not cover. Against Creighton, Bill Self’s team won 79-72 as a 12.5-point favorite. They closed as 6.5-point favorites against Providence. Here they’ll find themselves in a similar price range against an unlikely upstart, that being 10-seed Miami. 

Honestly, I expected that “The U” would lose in the first round to USC. Boy have the Hurricanes proven me wrong. They beat the Trojans 68-66, holding on after taking a double digit lead in the 1H. Then came a shocking upset of 2-seed Auburn, 79-61 as 6.5-point dogs, thanks to a 2H surge. In the Sweet 16, the Canes were short favorites in an unlikely matchup with Iowa State and controlled from start to finish in a 70-56 win and cover. The team is now 10-3 ATS over its last 13 games, 3-0 ATS in the Tournament and also 7-1 ATS its last eight games as a neutral site underdog. They’ll relish the role they are in on Sunday. 

Over their last six games, Kansas has alternated Overs and Unders. I had the Over in the matchup with Creighton, which ended up 79-72. Shooting was not good - for either side - when the Jayhawks faced Providence. The teams combined to shoot 36.2% overall, including an unsightly 6 of 38 from three-point range. I expect better overall shooting in this game and Kansas probably can’t maintain its current tournament average where opponents are shooting just 34% against them. Similarly, Miami’s last two opponents have shot a woeful 9 of 48 from three-point range! Iowa State attempted only FOUR free throws the entire game, a number Kansas will crush. 10* Over Miami FL/Kansas

10* Over Thunder/Nuggets (9:10 ET): At this point, Denver’s main goal is to hold onto sixth place in the Western Conference. Their lead over seventh place Minnesota is down to one-half game after the T’wolves beat the fifth place Mavs Friday night. Those three teams (Mavs, Nuggets, T’wolves) are all separated by 2.5 games and obviously one of them is going to be “odd team out” when it comes to having to win in the play-in round. For tonight’s game vs. OKC however, I’m more focused on the fact that the Nuggets have gone Over in each of their last five contests. 

Defensively, the Nuggets are allowing 121.4 PPG during the 5-0 Over stretch. They are just 2-3 SU after being blitzed 140-130 here at home by Phoenix Thursday night. I had the Over in that one and obviously it was a (very) easy winner. On the bright side for Denver, they are averaging 120.8 PPG over the L5 games. They shot 59.3% against the Suns (only to allow 60.5% shooting). There should be little issue scoring tonight on a Thunder team that has allowed 120 or more points eight different times here in March, including seven of the last nine games. 

OKC were 118-102 winners in their last game, which was at home against Orlando. That was a much higher scoring game than the previous time the Thunder faced the Magic (on 3/20) where there were just 175 total pts scored (and I cashed the Under). In between the games vs. Orlando, the Thunder got beat 132-123 by Boston. Since March 8th, Orlando is the only team not to score at least 120 against OKC. On the bright side, leading scorer Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could return tonight. Look for this to turn into a really high-scoring game as the Over is 13-3-1 in the Thunder’s L17 games. 10* Over Thunder/Nuggets

9* Over Bulls/Cavs (8:10 ET): This is a critically important game for both teams as it really does feel like one of them is poised to drop out of the top six in the East. Chicago was once on top of the “conference heap” but they have had a brutal second half of the season, losing 10 of their last 13 games. Interestingly, two of the wins came against the Cavs and Raptors, the two teams now directly below them in the standings. Cleveland is tied with Toronto for sixth place as they’ve dropped B2B games. 

Key to the Bulls’ decline has been the defensive end of the floor. Injuries to Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso had a major hand in the defensive decline. Caruso is probable for tonight, but Ball remains out. A bit of positive news is that leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (27.6 PPG) is listed as probable as well. DeRozan missed Thursday’s loss to New Orleans where the team put up only 109 points. Of course, the Bulls also gave up 126 in that game, which was the fourth time in the last five games they allowed 125+ points. 

Cleveland’s last six games have all gone Over the total as there has been major regression on the defensive end here as well. The Cavs have allowed 118.2 PPG their L5 games. At least they are scoring though. Before suffering a 117-104 loss in Toronto on Thursday, the team had scored 113+ in five consecutive games. Given how both teams have been playing at the defensive end of late, I’ve got no choice but to go Over in this one. 9* Over Bulls/Cavs

8* Brooklyn (8:10 ET): The way things stand now in the Eastern Conference, this could be a potential first round playoff series and I think that would be a nightmare matchup for the top-seeded Heat. Brooklyn has obviously underperformed in 2021-22 and just lost to Memphis, who didn’t have Ja Morant available. But the Nets had won six of seven before that, the lone loss coming by two points at home to Dallas on a buzzer-beater (a game the Nets led by double digits going into the 4Q. Kyrie Irving has now been cleared to play in ALL games (NYC has lifted vaccination requirements), so look out for the Nets. 

Irving was always going to be able to play tonight regardless and the Nets will definitely be looking for a similar performance to Thursday when he scored a team-high 43 points. Kevin Durant, who is averaging 29.7 points, 7.3 rebounds and 6.1 assists this year, added 35 in the loss to Memphis. The problem was the Nets’ bench combined to go just 2 for 11 from the field and scored only 11 points. For tonight, it’s looking like Goran Dragic and Seth Curry will be in the lineup, a big boost. 

Of course, it’s hard to win in the NBA when you give up 132 points, which is what Brooklyn did against Memphis. I expect vast improvement at that end of the floor here vs. Miami, who is in a terrible spot after blowing a 17-point 4Q lead last night and losing to the Knicks 111-103. That was the Heat’s third straight loss and they are also 0-6 ATS L6 games. A bad time to go cold on South Beach and second-leading scorer Tyler Herro remains out. Brooklyn is 0-3 SU vs. Miami this year, so this is a huge revenge spot that they’ll be up for. 8* Brooklyn

10* Over Houston/Villanova (6:09 ET): These teams play at two of the slowest paces in the entire country. Both are in the bottom in adjusted tempo per KenPom. So it makes sense that we have a low total for the South Regional Final between Houston and Villanova. But might it be too low? I think so. Houston has had only five games with a lower total, all January 5th or earlier. The last three all went Over. One of the two that didn’t came against Virginia, who plays at an even slower tempo than Villanova. As for ‘Nova, they’ve had only ONE game all year with an O/U line lower than 128. It pushed as they only gave up 42 points. The Wildcats will not hold Houston to 42 points here. 

Villanova has seen its own overall shooting percentage decline with each passing game in this tournament. They shot 50.9% vs. Delaware, then 44.2% vs. Ohio State and finally 37.3% vs. Michigan. Total points have declined from 80 to 71 to 63 as has three point shooting 46.4% to 34.8% to 30.0%. Do we really expect offensive numbers to decline across the board for a fourth consecutive game? It hasn’t happened all year. The average number of total points scored in Villanova games this season is 135.2. I believe the Wildcats can score at least 64 here. 

While Villanova’s overall FG% defense has improved with each passing game, teams are hitting better from three, peaking with Michigan’s 34.4% on Thursday. That’s good news for a Houston team that has made over 45% of its threes in two of three tourney games so far. The Cougars are averaging 74 PPG in the tournament. In the last 13 games, the fewest points scored by UH is 61. In the other 12, they scored at least 69. Their average number of total points per game scored this season is 134.7. Looking at the numbers, I simply feel that the value is on the Over here. 10* Over Houston/Villanova 

9* Iowa State (9:59 ET): Everyone seems to really love Miami in this unlikely Sweet 16 matchup, which pits the 10 and 11 seeds of the Midwest Region against one another. I’m not sure why? The gap in defensive efficiency, a very important metric this time of year, is the largest of any Sweet 16 matchup. Iowa State ranks fifth in the country in that regard while Miami is 124th, easily the worst of any of the remaining teams and it’s not particularly close. (Purdue is next lowest at 87th). I actually think that the WRONG TEAM IS FAVORED in this contest and thus I’m grabbing the points. 

Here’s something noteworthy. Iowa State has not lost a single non-conference game all season! The Cyclones are 15-0 when faced with a team outside the Big 12. I’ve been somewhat skeptical as my power rankings see a team that went 2-22 SU (0-18 in Big 12 play!) last year. But ISU certainly proved me wrong with their win over Wisconsin in Round 2. The bottom line is that the ‘Clones have allowed just 103 points in two games in this tournament with opponents hitting just 6 of 41 (14.6%!) from three-point range. You could argue that’s not sustainable, but so far Miami is just 4 of 29 (13.7%!) from three-point range in the tournament. 

So look for Iowa State’s defense to win out here. At the same time, I expect their offensive numbers to improve against a Miami team that is suspect defensively. The Hurricanes were fortunate to get out to a double digit lead in the 1H vs. USC in Round 1 as they held on for a two-point win. Then, they shockingly exploded in the 2H against Auburn in Round 2. Auburn shot very poorly in that game (just 30%) and while Iowa State certainly isn’t going to go for 80 points here, they will shoot better than Auburn did. I am just a big “seller” on this Miami team, who I think is the weakest team (besides St. Peter’s) left in the field. 9* Iowa State

10* UCLA (9:39 ET): Coming off an impressive upset of top-seeded Baylor in Round 2, North Carolina now seems to be accumulating quite the bandwagon as they head to the Sweet 16. But it’s hard for me to shake the fact that this Tar Heels team ended up as the three seed in a weak ACC this year. They were beaten by Virginia Tech in the Conference Tournament, then blew all of a 25-point lead (in 10 minutes!) against Baylor, needing OT to pull that upset off. The hot shooting we’ve seen from UNC these first two rounds is NOT likely to persist and I certainly don’t believe UCLA is going to shoot as poorly as Baylor did on Saturday. 

Meanwhile, UCLA quietly turned in a dominant effort in Round 2, ousting St. Mary’s 72-56. That followed a somewhat “sleepy” effort against Akron in the first round (where the Bruins won by just four points). But they have held B2B opponents below 60 points. I look at this East Region and see a pretty clear path to the Final Four for UCLA, who is one of just four teams left that ranks in the Top 25 in BOTH offensive and defensive efficiency. Why is that important? Because all but one of the last 20 National Champions (2014 UConn) have been Top 25 teams in both categories. I think the Bruins are being drastically undervalued for this Sweet 16 matchup. 

Now Jaime Jaquez Jr, who is UCLA’s leading rebounder and second leading scorer, is questionable due to an ankle injury suffered last game. And North Carolina’s near choke-job vs. Baylor certainly coincided with the ejection of Brady Manek, who WILL play Friday. But I am steadfast in my assessment of the two teams. UCLA has been better all season and should be favored by more. Don’t be surprised if it’s the defense that gets it done here for the Bruins, who are 7-1 ATS their L8 NCAA Tournament games. 10* UCLA

8* Under North Carolina/UCLA (9:39 ET): UCLA quietly turned in a dominant effort in Round 2, ousting St. Mary’s 72-56. That followed a somewhat “sleepy” effort against Akron in the first round (where the Bruins won by just four points). But they have held B2B opponents below 60 points. This Bruins team is 14th in the country in defensive efficiency and thus I believe they are capable of doing what neither Marquette or Baylor could do and that’s slow down this North Carolina offense. Going back to February 12th, only one team has been able to score more than 68 against UCLA and that was Arizona in the Pac 12 Tournament Final. 

At the same time, I can’t see UCLA shooting as well as they did in the last round (when they made 56.5% of their field goal attempts). North Carolina has surprisingly held its first two tourney opponents to 35% overall shooting. They held Marquette to just 63 points in the first round. The second round saw the Tar Heels hold Baylor to just 29 first half points. But then came the big ejection of Brady Manek, which led to UNC blowing a 25-point lead (in the final 10 minutes of regulation) amidst a massive defensive breakdown. With Manek back in the lineup, we won’t see another defensive breakdown like that. 

UCLA star forward Jaime Jaquez sprained his ankle against St. Mary’s and thus is questionable to play Friday. I think the Bruins can survive without him, but potentially being without your second leading scorer and top rebounder is tough. This is a much higher O/U line than usual for the Bruins. Note the O/U lines for the first two tourney games were 128 and 126! This is just the third total north of 140 for UCLA since Feb 3rd. Remember that North Carolina was held to an average of just 61 PPG in two ACC Tourney games. They won’t score anywhere close to what they did in the first two rounds of this tournament. 8* Under North Carolina/UCLA

8* Over Warriors/Hawks (7:40 ET): Without Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson Golden State somehow managed to beat Miami on Wednesday, 118-104 as a 10-point underdog. Curry (foot) is out indefinitely, but Green and Thompson will both be back in the lineup Friday as the team faces Atlanta. (Those two were simply given Wednesday off). The Warriors can’t afford any kind of letdown here as they now trail Memphis by 2.5 games in the race for the second seed in the Western Conference. I think we’ll see plenty of offense from the Dubs tonight, even without Curry.

In the East, Atlanta finds itself at the back end of the playoff race, currently occupying the last play-in spot. It’s a far cry from last season when the team made a run to the Conference Finals. Losing by 21 in Detroit on Wednesday was NOT what the “doctor ordered,” although perhaps that result was the byproduct of being in the second night of a back to back. Things really fell apart for the Hawks in the second half when they were on the wrong end of a 23-0 run and then could only manage two points over the first four minutes of the fourth quarter. With them now back at home, I am expecting a far better offensive effort in tonight’s game. 

The Hawks are averaging 116 PPG at State Farm Arena, which is marked improvement from the 109.6 PPG they average on the road. But regardless of where they are playing, the team is giving up just over 112 PPG this season. Trae Young had only 21 points in Detroit after scoring 45+ in three of his previous five games, two of those coming here at home. If Golden State can score 118 without its three best players in the lineup, certainly we should expect around the same with two of them back in the lineup tonight. They actually shot 51.9% against the Heat and are now 6-2-1 Over L9 road games. 8* Over Warriors/Hawks

8* Under Jazz/Hornets (7:10 ET): So the Jazz have lost B2B games for the first time since January. They were humbled Wednesday in Boston, losing 125-97 to the Celtics as a 4.5-point underdog. Entering that game, Utah had the league’s sixth highest scoring offense, but they were held under 100 points for the first time since March 4th as they went 8 of 36 from three-point range. However, I’d say it was the defense that let them down more. They allowed the Celtics to shoot a season-high 59% for the game and make their first 10 shots. That’s why the Jazz found themselves down by as many as 30 points before halftime. 

Charlotte turned in a similarly poor defensive effort that same night against the Knicks. New York would score 40 pts in the 1Q en route to a 121-106 final, ending the Hornets’ five-game win streak. Charlotte really struggled to defend the three in that game, letting the Knicks hit 14 of 26 from distance. Look for that to be a “point of emphasis” here as the Hornets try to lock down one of the “play-in” spots in the East. Similarly, Utah has to be concerned with preserving its status as a top four team in the West. So I’m looking for better defensive efforts from both sides tonight.

The Hornets played much better defense over the final three quarters against the Knicks, but it was largely “too little, too late.” Their games, on average, are the highest scoring in the league, but still not at the level of tonight’s number. This season, Charlotte is 24-10 Under when facing an opponent that has a winning record, including 12-3 L15 in that situation. Looking at the number from the Jazz’s perspective, they are 7-1 Under this season when the O/U line is 230 points or higher, including 3-0 on the road. 8* Under Jazz/Hornets

8* Over Wizards/Pistons (7:10 ET): I do not expect much defense to be played in this game. Washington has dropped eight of nine, really putting a dent in their already fleeting playoff hopes. They just lost (last night) 114-102 to a Milwaukee team that was resting both Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo. That result leaves the Wizards 5.5 games back of 10th place Atlanta for the last play-in spot and let’s be honest here: the Wiz aren’t making that kind of ground up. They’re allowing an average of 115 points over the L5 games. 

Detroit is simply looking to avoid the Eastern Conference cellar at this point as they continue to battle with Orlando at the bottom of the standings. It was a rare win on Wednesday, 122-101 over Atlanta, as rookie Cade Cunningham led the way with 17 points, six rebounds and eight assists. Cunningham was one of eight Pistons to finish in double figures, so it was a real “team effort” and at one point they went on a 23-0 run! It’s also now four straight games for the Pistons where there has been AT LEAST 222 total points scored. 

In three of their last four games, Detroit has scored at least 115 points. Can they keep that up here? I think so. Washington has allowed eight of its last 10 opponents to shoot over 50% from the field. This being the second night of a back to back for the Wizards is key as they are 9-2 Over in that situation this season and 27-11 Over the L3 seasons. But look for the Wiz to shoot well themselves, certainly better than they did last night from three (28.9% vs. MIL). The Pistons have held B2B opponents under 42% from the field, which is atypical for them. 8* Over Wizards/Pistons

8* Over Suns/Nuggets (9:10 ET): A Suns’ win tonight would give them home court advantage throughout the Western Conference playoffs. Even if they fail to get the job done here, with a nine game lead over second place Memphis, bank on last year’s Western Conference champs ending up as the top seed. Whereas LY’s run caught everyone by surprise, this season the Suns have clearly been the league’s most dominant team, posting the top net efficiency rating and point differential. A big key to their success is having one of the league’s top offenses. Coming into tonight, Phoenix is averaging 128.2 points over its L5 games. 

Denver is no slouch in the scoring department either. They have averaged 117.6 points over their last five games and that’s not all that far above what they average for the season here at home (113.5). Right now, the Nuggets are simply trying to hold on to a top six spot in the West. Phoenix did them a real “solid” last night by beating Minnesota 125-116. That widened the gap between the Nuggets and T’Wolves to 1.5 games. Denver is coming off a 127-115 win over the Clippers on Tuesday night. In that game, they shot 54.2% overall from the field and 50% from three-point range. 

The Nuggets’ last four games have all gone Over the total. The Suns are 6-1 Over in their last seven games. I know that we’ve got a high total here and both teams can’t keep scoring the way that they have recently, but I still don’t think the number is high enough for tonight’s game. Phoenix has allowed 111 or more points in six of its last seven games and I don’t think this being the second night of a back to back really helps. The Over is 6-1 in Suns’ road games when the total is 230 or higher. Denver has given up 115+ points in each of the L3 games. Look for a high-scoring game. 8* Over Suns/Nuggets

10* Under Bulls/Pelicans (8:10 ET): Chicago ran into a train named “Milwaukee” Tuesday night, getting crushed by the Bucks 126-98. The defending NBA Champs shot a blistering 61 percent from the field against the Bulls, handing them their ninth defeat in the past 12 games. Now you would think, giving up that many points, that Tuesday’s game went Over. But much to my chagrin (I had the Over), it did not. The Bulls scored only 98, their fewest in a game this month. But I do not think they are about to allow the kind of shooting we saw in that last game either. Take the Under here. 

New Orleans is also coming off a loss, 106-103 at Charlotte. They were looking to make it a 3-0 road trip after winning at San Antonio and Atlanta. But scoring only 10 points over the final nine minutes won’t get it done. Like Chicago, the Pelicans’ last three games have all stayed Under the total. (Bulls are also 8-1 Under L9 games). I know the previous six meetings between these teams have all gone Over, but this one should be different as there could be multiple key absences and the number is just too high, given respective season averages. 

Bulls’ games are averaging 223.0 PPG this season. There’s really no difference home vs. road. Meanwhile, Pelicans’ games average just 218.4 PPG this season. At home, things tend to be a little higher scoring (220.9), but not much. Monitor the statuses of Chicago’s DeMar DeRozan and New Orleans’ Brandon Ingram. The latter has missed the L8 games, so him being out again wouldn’t be a surprise. But DeRozan, the Bulls’ leading scorer, is now listed as questionable after suffering a groin injury in the last game. That would be a huge loss for the road team. 10* Under Bulls/Pelicans

**Note: Michigan PG Jones still listed as questionable as of press time. I think the Wolverines are due for a downturn offensively, regardless of what Jones' status ends up being. If he plays, there could be some "rust." 

10* Under Michigan/Villanova (7:27 ET): Through two games in this tournament, Michigan has shot 52% from the floor and averaged 75.5 PPG. They beat Colorado State by 12 (despite trailing by seven at the half) and then stunned Tennessee 76-68, again overcoming a halftime deficit. It would definitely be a surprise if they could win again, but stranger things have happened in March. I did cash the Wolverines in the first round and they are clearly a team that was better than their regular season record. But this game against Villanova promises to be a grind. 

Second seeded Villanova has handled its business against Delaware and Ohio State, winning those two games by a combined 30 points. As expected, it was not very difficult to oust the Fighting Blue Hens as a 35-10 run put that game away. ‘Nova held Delaware to 3 of 20 from three-point range. Then, against Ohio State, the Wildcats raced out to a sizable early advantage before holding on for a 71-61 win. While Michigan has 14 losses on the year, Villanova has lost only one time since Feb 5 and that was by only two points. 

I think a big key when betting the total here is noting that Villanova plays at one of the slowest tempos in all of College Basketball. They are 345th in pace. This is a strong defensive team, one that averages just 62.9 PPG allowed. Michigan is due for a downturn in shooting and ‘Nova is allowing a FG% of just 40.9 for the year. They also allow teams to shoot only 30.6% from three-point range. We’ve also seen Michigan put the clamps down defensively, holding CSU and Tennessee to just 27 and 31 pts in the 2H, respectively. Tennessee didn’t make a single three-pointer in the 2H on Saturday. 10* Under Michigan/Villanova

8* Under Washington State/BYU (9:00 ET): I think these might be the two of the top three teams left in the NIT. Coming into the Tournament, Oklahoma was the highest rated in my power rankings, but the Sooners are out. That leaves Wake Forest as the highest one left, then these two. In fact, the four highest rated teams remaining are all on one side of the bracket with Wake, A&M and these two. Enough of that though. I had success with a previous Washington State Under and that’s the way I’m playing tonight’s quarterfinal at BYU as this is a very solid team defensively. 

Now stopping Brigham Young may seem like a challenge. The Cougars have scored 90+ points in their first two NIT games, beating Long Beach State and Northern Iowa. But neither of those teams are as solid as Wazzu at the defensive end. Note that when I last played the Under with Wazzu, they were facing another WCC team (Santa Clara) that came in averaging 76.5 PPG. The Broncos had scored 89 or more in three of their last four games, but were held to just 50 points (on 30.0% shooting) by Washington State. Wazzu is top 30 in the country in defensive efficiency and kept SMU to 63 in the second round, including 20 in the 1H, on the road. 

But Washington State also has shot just under 35% from the field in this tournament. They were 6 of 24 from three-point range vs. SMU. BYU is also pretty staunch at the defensive end, especially here in Provo where they allow just 63.9 PPG. Visiting teams are hitting just 29.4% from three-point range here. In sum, you cannot expect BYU to shoot the ball as well as they have in the first two NIT games. But their own defensive prowess will keep them in this one, a battle of Cougars which looks to stay Under the total. 8* Under Washington State/BYU

8* Utah (7:40 ET): I really respect Boston, but this is too many points to lay to the Jazz, who are looking to bounce back from a loss. Utah has been one of the top teams in the league all season. In fact, I’ve got them second in the power rankings, one spot ahead of the Celtics. So this line doesn’t make much sense to me. Boston is off a 4-0 road trip - where every win came by at least nine points - but it wouldn’t shock me to see them a little “gassed” in their return to Beantown. Meanwhile, with just a one game lead over 5th place Dallas in the race for homecourt advantage, there’s a great sense of urgency for the road team tonight. Take the points. 

Utah lost in Brooklyn Monday night, 114-106, falling victim to a 37-point performance from Kevin Durant. The Jazz had previously won three straight and the good news is they perform well off a loss. The last time this team lost consecutive games was late January. Since then, they’ve followed their last five SU defeats with a win, including a 15-point victory over Chicago the last time they were in this situation. Something to consider is that while Boston leads the league in defensive efficiency, Utah leads the league in offensive efficiency. They are tough to stop and getting this many points with a team that averages 113.9 PPG is rare. 

The Celtics actually just gave up 123 to Oklahoma City (who is one of the lowest scoring teams in the league) the other night. Now that number feels like a bit of an aberration, but consider Utah put up 137 when these teams last met, back in December (and there was no overtime). Boston ended up scoring 132 against the Thunder Monday night, but they are just 1-5 ATS this season after scoring 130+ in the previous game. The Jazz have won the last four head to head meetings and a 4-0 ATS their last four trips here to Boston. 8* Utah

10* Over Hawks/Pistons (7:10 ET): Atlanta got back into the win column last night, besting the Knicks 117-111 as a 1.5-point road favorite. Trae Young led the way with 45 points, a nice “recovery” for the Hawks leading scorer after he’d been held to just 21 and 9 in in the team’s previous two contests. But Young is certainly no stranger to crossing the 40-point threshold as he’s now done that three times in the last five games. I expect Young and the Hawks to put up a lot of points again tonight as they face the cellar-dwelling Pistons, a team whose last three games have all gone Over the total. 

Detroit did pick up a win last Thursday in what was the lone NBA game on that particular day’s docket. They scored 134 points on the Magic and that was despite being extremely short-handed. Saddiq Bey exploded in that game for a career-high 51 points. However, since that win, it’s been back to losing in the Motor City. That’s even with leading scorer Cade Cunningham returning to the lineup. Cunningham had 25 points in the Pistons’ 119-115 loss to the short-handed Trail Blazers on Monday. That was a game where Detroit actually closed as a 10-point favorite! They fell behind by as many as 23 before briefly taking the lead, then falling apart down the stretch. 

That Blazers-Pistons game saw some woeful three-point shooting as the teams combined to go just 17 of 63 from beyond the arc. Yet there were still 234 total points scored. That was  owed to NINETY free throws being taken. Won’t be nearly that many here, but I still see an Over. Detroit chose to sit five players against Portland, but looks to be closer to full strength here. Last time these teams met, the total was higher. The Over has hit each of the L4 times Atlanta has been in a B2B and Detroit is 10-5 the Over when the number is 220 or higher. 10* Over Hawks/Pistons

10* Under Vanderbilt/Xavier (9:00 ET): Xavier is probably no worse than the Marquette team that got slaughtered (by North Carolina) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. But with an 18-13 SU regular season record, the Musketeers were simply not going to get into the Big Dance, particularly after losing six of their last seven games. So they had to settle on the NIT and that’s gone well with a 72-68 win over Cleveland State and 72-56 win over Florida. Another SEC team comes to campus for Tuesday’s quarterfinals, that being Vanderbilt, who has beaten Belmont (82-71) and Dayton (70-68) thus far. 

This will be the first time Vandy has had to leave home in the NIT. Their first two games were both in Nashville. Now they’ll try and make it an “Ohio double” after beating Dayton (in overtime) last time out. The Commodores have fared quite well at the betting window down the stretch; covering 11 of their last 15 games. They just missed out against Dayton as three point favorites. As underdogs, the Commies have covered five straight times. But it’s another streak that I’m looking at here, them having produced four straight Overs. Away from home, I don’t see this team shooting all that well. Also, that last game (vs. Dayton) would NOT have gone Over without OT. 

Vandy isn’t a great shooting team to begin with. Their FG% for the season is only 42.4. I look at the L5 games and see a team that has been scoring well above their season average (78.2 PPG). For the year, the Commodores are averaging just 70.7 PPG. Xavier allows just 64.8 PPG at home and has held its previous two NIT opponents to only 62 PPG. What will keep Vandy in this one though is the fact they are 38th in the country in defensive efficiency and allow just 30% shooting from three-point land. Xavier is actually better than that (at home), allowing just 29.4%. Neither team is great at the FT line either. Xavier’s second leading scorer (PG Scruggs) is questionable after leaving the last game with a knee injury. 10* Under Vanderbilt/Xavier

10* Over Bulls/Bucks (8:10 ET): This is a high total, but consider that the last time these teams played (earlier this month), the number was even higher (239.5). That previous meeting did NOT go Over, but did see 230 total points scored (Bucks won 118-112). The Under is actually 2-0 in Bulls/Bucks meetings in 2021-22 with the first being really low-scoring. But for that first meeting, the Bulls did not have Zach LaVine and the two teams combined to shoot an irregularly bad 13 of 69 from three-point range. Going back to February 5th, the fewest total pts scored in any Milwaukee game is 228. I’ll take my chances here with the Over.

Chicago played last night and picked up a key win over Toronto, 113-99. The win kept them in fifth place in the Eastern Conference and also widened the gap over the seventh place Raptors to 2.5 games. This will be the third time this season that the Bulls are playing in a back to back where the first game was home and the second was away. The previous two occasions have seen an average of 237 total points per game scored. The Bulls’ defense has been very shaky over the last month or so and will NOT keep the Bucks in check the way it did Toronto (who shot just 6 of 32 from three-point range).

In fact, the previous two games - when it faced Utah and Phoenix - Chicago gave up 125 and 129 points. Milwaukee has scored 117 or more in every game but one since the All-Star Break. That one time was against Golden State, who is one of the top two defensive teams in the entire NBA. Now the Bucks have their own issues defensively as the last two games have seen them surrender 126 and 138 points. They allowed 38 made threes in the two games. The Over is 13-5 in the Bucks’ last 18 games overall and 9-3 L12 at home. 10* Over Bulls/Bucks

10* Dallas (8:40 ET): The Timberwolves sure are “humming” right now. They’re up to sixth in the Western Conference, and have fifth place Dallas in their sights, after winning (and covering) 10 of their last 11 games. Last time out, the T’wolves beat Milwaukee 138-119 as a 3.5-point favorite. That line swung dramatically after it was announced Giannis Antetokounmpo would not be playing for the Bucks. Minnesota took full advantage of the absence, shooting the lights out, including 22 of 47 from three-point range. But I don’t think they’ll be as fortunate tonight when they face the team they are chasing for fifth. 

Dallas returns home tonight after a five-game road trip that started well and ended poorly. The Mavericks won the first three games of that five-game trip, including victories over Boston and Brooklyn. But then they lost at Philadelphia and Charlotte on Friday & Saturday. Perhaps they “ran out of gas,” but the bottom line is they can’t afford many more stumbles with just a 1.5 game lead over the T’wolves and Nuggets. The last thing the Mavs want is to “fall into” the play-in round. 

It’s been a LONG time since Dallas has lost three in a row (Dec 3-7), so I expect a bounce back tonight at home. The Mavs have a big edge defensively in this matchup. They allow just 102.2 PPG at home while the T’wolves are allowing 117.1 on the road. Remember that I faded the T’wolves, successfully, in their lone loss in the L11 games, which was at Orlando. Because of the strong numbers at the defensive end, Dallas is 23-12 SU at home this season. Look for Luka Doncic, who is averaging 28.1 points, 9.2 rebounds and 8.5 assists, to get more “help” here than he did in the last game. Role players tend to produce more at home. 10* Dallas

8* Under T’wolves/Mavs (8:40 ET): The Timberwolves sure are “humming” right now. They’re up to sixth in the Western Conference, and have fifth place Dallas in their sights, after winning (and covering) 10 of their last 11 games. Last time out, the T’wolves beat Milwaukee 138-119 as a 3.5-point favorite. That line swung dramatically after it was announced Giannis Antetokounmpo would not be playing for the Bucks. Minnesota took full advantage of the absence, shooting the lights out, including 22 of 47 from three-point range. I don’t see them shooting that well here, against a Mavs team that allows just 102.2 PPG at home.

Dallas returns home tonight after a five-game road trip that started well and ended poorly. The Mavericks won the first three games of that five-game trip, including victories over Boston and Brooklyn. But then they lost at Philadelphia and Charlotte on Friday & Saturday. Perhaps they “ran out of gas,” but the bottom line is they can’t afford many more stumbles with just a 1.5 game lead over the T’wolves and Nuggets. The last thing the Mavs want is to “fall into” the play-in round. 

I think Dallas matches up uniquely well against Minnesota. First off, the Mavs play at the slowest pace in the league, a big reason why they are the #1 Under team at 43-26-2. The Under is 24-10-1 in their home games. Also, the Mavs allow the fewest number of three-point attempts in the league (10.9 per game), which is key because Minnesota takes the most threes per game. The previous two matchups between these teams both saw 216 total points scored and had much lower totals. I believe that the offensive numbers for Minnesota are due to “come back down to Earth” and that’s a big reason why I’m on the Under here. 8* Under T’wolves/Mavericks

10* Over USC Upstate/South Alabama (8:00 ET): So this is “The Basketball Classic,” a new tournament for this year that replaced the CIT. Honestly, it feels like the organizers are kind of “making the rules up as they go along here” as you’ve got one team (Portland) already with a bye into the quarterfinals and four second round matchups, so we’re going to be left with five teams and I don’t really understand how that’s going to be resolved! What I do know is that this matchup between USC Upstate and South Alabama should feature plenty of points. 

USC Upstate, who finished with the fourth best record in the Big South this year, hung 80 in a first round upset at Appalachian State last Tuesday. Despite being 10.5-point underdogs, the Spartans led most of the game, although they did blow all of a 12-point lead in the second half. It ended up being their highest scoring game since 2/2, but USC Upstate has now scored 70 or more points in five of its last six games and that’s all we probably need from them tonight. 

South Alabama grinded out a 70-68 win over SE Louisiana in the first round. The Jaguars did not cover the nine-point spread in that game as they blew a 17-point 2H lead. The last five games have seen USA score well below their season average of 71.3 PPG, so I expect them to get on track offensively here against an opponent that ranks outside of the top 300 in defensive efficiency. At home, the Jaguars average 75.4 PPG and that’s the exact number USC Upstate is allowing per game on the road. 10* Over USC Upstate/South Alabama

8* Under Raptors/Sixers (8:40 ET): I’ve been unafraid to play the Under with the Sixers recently as that’s the way that five of their last seven games have gone. One of the two that didn’t went to overtime. The Under was a winning bet when I took it Friday as the Sixers beat the Mavericks 111-101. As has been discussed before, the defensive efficiency numbers when James Harden and Joel Embiid are on the floor together have been exceptional. Embiid is listed as questionable for tonight, but you obviously can’t disregard the impact that will have at the offensive end. Take the Under with Philly yet again. 

Toronto seemed poised to break into the top six in the Eastern Conference as they were on a 5-0 SU/ATS run heading into Friday night’s game vs. the Lakers. But they lost that one, 128-123 in overtime, and coupled with Cleveland’s B2B wins, the Raptors are now 1.5 games back of the top six. Toronto shot 50% against the Lakers, a number I don’t think they’ll be able to match here. They are shooting 44.4% for the year. 

The Under is 23-12 in Sixers’ home games this season. That includes 8-1 when the O/U is 220 or higher.  While the offensive numbers exploded in the first 5-6 games with Harden, the L5 games have seen Philly average only 111 PPG and that’s with an OT game. This O/U line opened much higher than either of the two previous meetings, both of which did go Over, but would have barely scraped by this number. 8* Under Raptors/Sixers

8* Under Miami/Auburn (7:45 ET): I have no unearthly idea how Miami was able to defeat USC in the first round. The Hurricanes were outshot, 48.0% to 42.9%, and made only ONE three-point shot (on 17 attempts) for the game. But they did enjoy a +10 advantage in FT attempts and that, coupled with a fast start, allowed them to hold on for the 68-66 upset as two-point underdogs. I would not at all be surprised to see the ‘Canes get run out of the gym by Auburn on Sunday, but the better play (in my view) is on the Under here. 

Auburn didn’t have any difficulty disposing of Jacksonville State on Friday. That was an 80-61 victory as 14.5-point underdogs. In retrospect, that was a shockingly low number for a 2-15 matchup, especially considering Jacksonville State did NOT win its conference tournament. Auburn allowed just 31.1% in that game. Incredibly, only TWO teams have shot better than 45% this season against the Tigers. Those were UConn (49.3%) on 11/24 and Kentucky (50%) on 1/22. Given Miami’s own offensive struggles on Friday, I’m not worried about them shooting the lights out here. 

Auburn has scored 80 or more in three of its last four games, but those efforts were all against overmatched opponents; a 15-seed and two non-tourney teams. Miami’s defensive efficiency numbers are not great, but I think they can keep the Tigers in relative check here. Jaylin Williams and Walker Kessler ran into each other against Jacksonville State, getting banged up in the process. Bruce Pearl expects to have both Sunday, but don’t discount the injuries. 8* Under Miami/Auburn

10* Under Thunder/Magic (6:10 ET): Orlando’s defense has been absolutely atrocious over the L2 games, giving up 150 to Brooklyn and 134 to Detroit. Allowing 150 points is never acceptable, though the Magic fell prey to a 60+ point effort from Kyrie Irving that day. I’m not complaining as I had the Over in the game. Giving up 134 to the Pistons may have actually been worse considering Detroit is second to last in the NBA in scoring. Tonight, the Magic face THE lowest scoring team in the NBA, Oklahoma City. Can the defense turn around? Yes, I think it can! (It certainly can’t get any worse!) Take the Under. 

Each of the Thunder’s last four games have gone Over, but they are banged up heading into Sunday. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (ankle) is listed as questionable for tonight and there were SEVEN players that missed Friday’s game vs. Miami, which ended up being OKC’s eighth consecutive loss. Gilgeous-Alexander is the team’s leading scorer and the second AND third leading scorers were out against Miami. I know the injuries haven’t stopped the Thunder from scoring more than usual, but that’s likely to end for a team that averages just 102.8 PPG on the road this season. 

By the way, Orlando is also banged up and one of the lowest scoring teams in the league. The Magic average only 104.5 PPG (28th overall) and were without two starters (Carter, Suggs) vs. the Pistons. I believe that the recent rash of high-scoring games both teams are experiencing is a mirage, mostly due to the opponents. This total is absurdly high considering its two of the three lowest scoring teams in the NBA. They are the bottom two in offensive efficiency. Thunder games average 214.1 PPG for the season while Magic games average 217.0 PPG. The Under is 10-4 in Orlando’s L14 games vs. teams with losing records. 10* Under Thunder/Magic

10* Wisconsin (6:10 ET): The Badgers have thrived in close games this season, so it wasn’t much of a surprise to see them “turn it on” late against 14-seed Colgate Friday night. Trailing most of the game, Wisconsin went on a 10-0 run to take the lead for good and held the Raiders scoreless for over seven minutes. The favorite ended up not covering (won 67-60, were -7.5), but I’m going to lay the points here as I think the Badgers got a favorable second round draw with an Iowa State team that I’ve not been sold on all season. Lay the points. 

Iowa State shot just 35.7% in the first round, but it was enough to pull the upset over LSU, 59-54 as 3.5-point dogs. Remember that the Tigers had just fired their HC, the day before Selection Sunday. So the Cyclones really got lucky with the draw. The turnaround in Ames has been pretty remarkable this season, considering that last year the Cyclones finished 2-22 SU overall and didn’t win a single Big 12 game! They started 2021-22 by winning their first 12 games, but are only 9-12 SU since (including Friday’s win) and had dropped three in a row coming into the NCAA Tournament. Most concerning is the lack of offense; ISU has been held below 60 pts in three of its last four games. 

Wisconsin commits the fewest number of turnovers per game (8.5) in the nation and gave it away only five times against Colgate. So this team does not beat itself. Like Iowa State, the Badgers have been a surprise team this season (were picked to finish 10th in the Big Ten), but that’s all water in the bridge. I know I’ve pointed to an unsustainable record in close games, but this is a game Wisconsin should win big. I just don’t think ISU is very good. Over the last four games, the Cyclones were held to 36 points by OK State and 41 by Tex Tech! Wisconsin will certainly make more threes than LSU did (only four) here. 10* Wisconsin

10* Atalanta (3:45 ET): This is a very low price on Atalanta, considering the respective positions in the table. La Dea is currently sixth, eight points off the Champions League places, so they REALLY need a win here, especially with frontrunning Napoli on deck in two weeks. Bologna has been a mid-table side most of this season, but to me there’s a massive gap in quality between the top and bottom halves in Serie A. Bologna has just one win since the New Year and has been blanked five times in 2022 including both March fixtures. They simply lack the firepower to compete in Sunday’s fixture. 

Now Atalanta has picked up just one point from its last two Serie A battles, that coming from a goalless draw with Genoa last week. The good news though is that they have progressed in the Europa League, after beating Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 on Thursday. Typically, Atalanta has been a side that has had to rely on goal scoring to get the win as they usually have a leaky back end. But things have shored up on the back recently as La Dea has conceded only two goals in its last four Serie A fixtures and kept five clean sheets over their last six competitions overall! They didn’t allow a goal when they faced Bologna back in August, though that ended up another 0-0 draw. 

Bologna may have a false sense of hope here due to the fact Atalanta has not scored a Serie A goal in 200 minutes and in any of their last three away matches. But, one would have to go back to 2015 to find the last time Atalanta went four straight on the road without a goal. I believe the dam is due to break here, similar to when La Dea ran away as 4-0 winners over Sampdoria last month. They have nine wins and just two losses in 14 Serie A away matches thus far, so they’d been playing well away from home prior to this recent drought. They have the third best away record in the league. 10* Atalanta 

9* Villarreal (11:15 AM ET): Back on Wednesday, I gave out Villarreal, saying that I didn’t understand how one of the hottest sides in all of Europe could be priced as such a decided underdog. Sure enough, the Yellow Submarine made me look VERY good, defeating Juventus 3-0 to advance to the Champions League quarterfinal. Here in La Liga, Villarreal still has work to do as they currently sit just seventh in the table with 45 points, despite (as of Saturday) having the league’s third best GD (+22). I firmly believe this is a top four side in the Spanish top flight and will take them again here as they continue to be underrated by the oddsmakers. 

Making the price on Villarreal all the more “eye-opening” here is that the opponent is Cadiz, a bottom of the table side that is currently in the relegation zone with 24 points. Cadiz was quite lucky to avoid relegation last season as they were actually second to last in xPts, despite a 12th place finish. So regression was inevitable for 2021/22. As of press time, they are two points adrift of safety, so a win Saturday would be huge. Problem is they have just one win across their last six fixtures and victory here is quite unlikely. 

The 3-3 draw that played out between these sides in the reverse isn’t likely to be repeated on Sunday. That’s because Villarreal has been on such a tear; since Dec 10 they have been averaging nearly 2.00 xG per match while allowing fewer than 1.0. Given their current standing here in La Liga, I don’t anticipate any kind of “hangover” from the Yellow Submarine off the UCL win midweek. This is one they absolutely should win as they could move into the top six with a win, not to mention inch closer to the top four, which is where they belong. 9* Villarreal

10* Under New Mexico State/Arkansas (8:40 ET): New Mexico State made me look foolish in Round 1, upsetting UConn 70-63, thus continuing the 12 vs. 5 seed trend. It was Aggies’ first NCAA Tournament win since the early 90s. Now they’ll meet an Arkansas team that outlasted an upset bid from upstart Vermont. The Razorbacks won 75-71 on Thursday, but did not cover the spread. That was a game where scoring really picked up in the 2H (85 pts) after a relatively low-scoring first half (61 points). As someone who had the Under in that Arkansas-Vermont matchup, I was quite sad. So both of these teams “owe me” one on Saturday. 

Arkansas’ last seven games have all gone Over. That’s the longest O/U streak of any team left in the tournament. This is a top 20 team in the country in defensive efficiency and I expect the Razorbacks to advance here. Look for them to do it with defense. NMSU isn’t anywhere near as prolific as Vermont when it comes to shooting the basketball. Now the Aggies did shoot a ridiculous 64.7% from three-point range (11 of 17) against UConn, but that is a number they certainly will not be repeating here. For the year, they’re at just 33.5% from behind the arc. 

Arkansas has its own issues shooting from long distance as they are just 30.9% for the season. So NMSU may be able to stick around because of that. The Aggies did just hold UConn to only 63 points. It’s interesting that both teams’ games were VERY low-scoring in the first half, yet still went Over. Don’t see that happening here. Arkansas held Vermont to 27 points in the 1H while NMSU held UConn to 22. Look for the underdog to try and slow the pace and limit possessions. Only two of the Aggies’ last seven games would have made it Over this total. Teddy Allen will NOT score 37 again here like he did vs. UConn. Keep in mind the rest of the team made just 13 field goals and attempted ZERO free throws. 10* Under New Mexico State/Arkansas

analysis soon

10* Atletico Madrid (4:00 ET): Atletico has surged into the top four in La Liga, now with 51 points, which is tied with Barcelona for third. Given who Barca is facing this weekend (Real Madrid), today is an excellent opportunity for last year’s La Liga champs to move into third all by their lonesome. They are facing a Rayo Vallecano side that has not won in some time now. Los Franjirrojos have gone winless over their last seven fixtures with the only points earned coming in last week’s 1-1 draw with Sevilla. As a result, they have slipped to 13th in the table, although relegation is not a real concern at this point. 

Atletico has won its last four La Liga matches and prevailed midweek over Manchester United in the Champions League. So this side has a lot of confidence right now. It is unlikely that they will repeat as La Liga Champs this season, as they are 15 points back of Real Madrid currently. But I certainly see them finishing here in the top four and possibly even challenging for second. In each of their previous four La Liga victories, Atletico has scored at least two goals. For the season, I think they’ve been a little unfortunate to concede 36 goals as their xGA (expected goals allowed) is only 25.76. That’s a big gap and should start to rectify itself, moving forward. 

Rayo Vallecano has not scored more than once in any competition since a 2-1 victory over second tier side Girona in the Copa del Rey, back on January 15th. The last time Rayo scored multiple times in a La Liga fixture was before the turn of the year, a 2-0 win over bottom side Alaves. So they simply lack the firepower to keep up with Atletico here. Sure enough, Atletico dominated the reverse fixture earlier this season, winning 2-0. It’s a real value (in my opinion) to get them at “plus money” on Saturday. 10* Atletico Madrid

8* Over Creighton/Kansas (2:45 ET): Creighton was really lucky to advance over San Diego State, as the Bluejays scored the final nine points of regulation and the Aztecs missed a free throw that would have clinched the game. However, the 72-69 OT win wasn’t all good fortune for Creighton as starting big man Ryan Kalkbrenner hurt his knee and he won’t be back. That means the Bluejays are now without two of their top three players as Ryan Nembhard, the Big East Freshman of the Year, was already lost to injury. However, led by another freshman (Trey Alexander), I still expect Creighton to put a decent number of points on the board Saturday against Kansas. 

The top-seeded Jayhawks breezed through their first round game, as expected, beating Texas Southern 83-56 with an effective FG% of 58.0. Kansas is one of the top offensive teams in the country, has shot 50% or better from the field in three of its last four games and averages 78.7 PPG. They are #5 in the country in offensive efficiency. With Kalkbrenner out for Creighton, expect KU’s David McCormack to have a “field day” on the inside here. Also, expect Big XII Player of the Year Ochai Agbagi to have a more productive game than he did Thursday when he finished with only 11 points. 

With Creighton may be a bit short-handed coming into the second round, I do expect they will dramatically improve upon their three-point shooting from the first round, which was a woeful 14.3%. Over their L2 games, the Blue Jays have hit only 5 of 43 3PA, which is just insane. I know that even with OT, they managed just 72 pts on Thursday. But San Diego State is one of the top defensive teams in the entire country. Kansas is not nearly as stout and will find Creighton much more difficult to defend than Texas Southern was. 8* Over Creighton/Kansas

10* Mainz (10:30 AM ET): Mainz was oh so close to sharing the points with Dortmund midweek. But Die Nullfunfer conceded late, with just three minutes left in normal time, and took a 1-0 loss instead. It was their second consecutive loss, keeping them 10th in the table with 34 points. But as mentioned in Wednesday’s analysis, Mainz still owns a better YTD goal differential than the three sides directly above them. I think Saturday’s fixture, at home, is a favorable one and will play accordingly. 

The opponent here is Arminia Bielefeld, who is still facing the threat of relegation, just two points ahead of the drop zone. Like Mainz, Bielefeld is coming off a 1-0 loss to Dortmund, theirs coming back on Sunday. It was their second straight loss by that exact scoreline and third straight loss without a goal. Only last place Greuther Furth (3) has fewer wins this season than Bielefeld (5). Even more damning is the fact that Bielefeld is actually last in the league on xPts with 19.86. They very much are in a fight to remain here in the German top flight. 

Bielefeld has been extraordinarily lucky that they haven’t conceded more goals this season as their xGA (expected goals allowed) is 47.39. The gap between number of actual goals allowed and xGA is easily the largest in the entire Bundesliga (+13.39). As for Mainz, they actually have the second LOWEST xGA in the Bundesliga, trailing only Bayern, with 29.45. They are also tied for third fewest number of actual goals conceded. With their European hopes fleeting, winning here is a virtual must for Mainz. I believe they will as they beat Bielefeld in the reverse, 2-1, back in October. 10* Mainz

8* Chicago (10:10 ET): The two surprise teams in the East, Chicago and Cleveland, have both started to fall off a bit in the second half of the season. In the case of the Bulls, they’ve won just two of their last nine games, going 1-8 ATS, and are now down to 5th place in the Conference. (Remember that they were once in 1st). With seventh place Toronto making a move, the Bulls need to get things turned around in a hurry or they risk falling into the “play-in round” for the playoffs. Despite recent form, I’m going to take the points here as the road team comes in desperate and motivated. 

Shortly after the All-Star Break, Phoenix dropped B2B games (to New Orleans and Utah), but they’ve since battled back to win seven of their last nine, despite not having PG Chris Paul. The last three games have all been wins and covers for the Suns, one over the Pelicans in a revenge spot. But the other two wins were against the Lakers and Rockets, the former a sinking ship and the latter the worst team in the Western Conference. At 56-14 on the year (best record in the NBA), the Suns have nothing to worry about, but I could see them coming out flat here. 

The Bulls have certainly seen their defensive numbers take a hit over the last month or so, but Alex Caruso (one of their top defenders) is now back and that should help. Losing at Utah on Wednesday night really shouldn’t be taken as a big deal. Now losing Monday in Sacramento was bad. But I just think this Bulls team comes out ready to play on Friday. Right now feels like a “buy low” spot on a team that was once first in the Eastern Conference standings. 8* Chicago

10* CS Fullerton (7:10 ET): Duke has been a complete mess defensively of late. Over the last four games, the Blue Devils have surrendered an average of 82.8 points per game and rank 224th in defensive efficiency. So I’ll gladly grab the big number here with Cal State Fullerton, who won the Big West Tournament to get here. The Titans have held their last five opponents to 39.9% shooting. Obviously, that’s against weaker competition than they’ll see here. But I still see the 15-seed staying inside the number. 

Duke comes into the Tournament on an 0-4 ATS losing skid. They dropped Coach K’s home finale, losing to rival North Carolina 94-81. Then it was two close wins in the ACC Tournament over Syracuse and Miami. They lost in the Finals, to Virginia Tech, 82-67 as a 5.5-point favorite. I would have expected the ATS losing skid to scare the public off here, but it has not and, in fact, the line has only gotten bigger. I think because of the name on the front of the jersey, this team is overvalued right now. The Blue Devils are young and inexperienced. 

An outright upset seems unlikely here, although we did see a 15-seed (St. Peter’s) win yesterday. But CS Fullerton has dropped only two games over the last month and those two losses were by a combined eight points. The Titans are a very solid 6-2 ATS as underdogs this season and should come in “loose” as they are essentially playing with “house money” here. Duke’s lack of defense down the stretch makes them a prime candidate to fade as a big favorite. 10* CS-Fullerton

8* Under CS-Fullerton/Duke (7:10 ET): While the Duke defense has been a complete mess lately, giving up an average of 82.8 points over the last four games and ranking 224th nationally in efficiency, I don’t see the Blue Devils giving up a ton of points to Cal State Fullerton in this first round matchup. CS Fullerton doesn’t take a ton of threes, so the Titans’ best bet is to keep this one low-scoring. I think they will and the fact Duke’s last games have all gone Over has this number too high. Take the Under. 

It;s obviously against inferior Big West competition, but the last five games have seen Cal State Fullerton hold its opponents to 39.9% shooting from the floor. In the first two Big West Tourney games, they held opponents to 55 and 46 points. In the Final, they upset top seeded Long Beach State 72-71, thanks to their own hot shooting as they made 52% overall from the field, including 11 of 20 from three-point range. Though I expect them to cover here, I can’t see the Titans matching those percentages against Duke. 

This is a pretty high total for both teams. CS Fullerton is 16-5 Under its last 21 non-conference games. For the season, their games only average 136.5 PPG total. They’ve had just ONE O/U line north of 145.0 all season and that was in the very first game. The Under is 4-0 the last four times that the Titans have been underdogs. Duke has shot below 25% from three-point range in its last two games and the O/U line for the ACC Tournament Final against Virginia Tech was much lower than this one. 8* Under CS-Fullerton-Duke

10* Under Mavericks/76ers (7:10 ET): Since they acquired James Harden, Sixers’ games have become much more high-scoring. With the exception of the game Harden sat (99-82 loss at Miami), every Philly game since the trade has seen at least 224 total points scored. But, you may recall that a few games ago, I was the beneficiary of overtime with an Over bet on the Sixers win against the Magic. Had it not been for OT, that game would have stayed well Under the number. Here, the Sixers are matched up with the top Under team in the NBA. That’s the way I see this one going. 

With Dallas, the Under is 24-10-1 this season when they are at home. The percentage isn’t nearly as skewed when they are on the road, but this team is still tied (with Boston) for the league lead in scoring defense, giving up just 103.7 PPG. They’ve been slightly more stingy over the L5 games, allowing only 102.7 PPG. The only team to top 107 against them in that stretch was Brooklyn on Wednesday, a game the Mavs won at the buzzer 113-111.

Twice in those last five games Dallas has failed to score 100 themselves. The Under is 40-16 their last 56 games as a road underdog, including a 95-92 win at Boston on Sunday. With just 210.4 total PPG scored, Mavs’ games are - on average - the lowest scoring in the NBA this year. This is a high total for them, owed to Philly’s recent results after the Harden trade. But be aware that the Under is 8-1 in Sixers’ home games this season when the total is 220 or higher. Take the Under. 10* Under Mavericks/76ers

8* Texas (4:30 ET): I think we’re getting a GREAT discount on Texas here as this line looks like it might “jump the fence.” I assume the public infatuation has to do with Va Tech winning the ACC Tournament. Now I very much thought the Hokies were capable of making a run in that event, but mainly that was because the ACC was so “down” this season. And the Hokies only finished SEVENTH in that league. Conversely, Texas made an early exit in the Big 12 Tourney, losing in the quarterfinals to TCU. But the Longhorns are still sixth in the country in points allowed (59.6 per game) and have a big edge at that end of the floor. 

I understand that Texas comes into the NCAA Tournament on a three-game losing streak where they’ve not topped 63 in any game. But two of those defeats came to Baylor and Kansas (both 1-seeds) and they had an 18-point lead over TCU in the Big 12 Tourney. All but two of this team’s losses this season came to ranked foes. Va Tech is unranked. Teams are shooting just 41.2% against the Longhorns, so I just don’t see the Hokies hitting at the same rate they did against the weak defenses of the ACC. The Horns have had just one losing streak longer than three games in the L3 seasons. 

Let’s also not forget Va Tech was just 19-12 SU before winning four games in four days to clinch their spot here. One of those wins in came in overtime and required a buzzer beater. I did think - that like Texas - the Hokies were being underrated much of the year. But Texas was a preseason top five team. I think this is a classic case of “recency bias” as too many people are focused on Va Tech’s ACC Tourney run and not the big picture. Teams that are only in the field due to winning the automatic berth from their conference are good first round fades, in my opinion. 8* Texas

10* Wolverhampton (4:00 ET): With B2B wins, the Wolves’ hopes of playing European football next season are very much alive. You may recall I had the Over when they faced Watford two weeks ago. That bet cashed in the 21st minute as the Wolves raced out to an early 3-0 lead and then added another goal late, for good measure. They kept another clean sheet last week, beating Everton 1-0. Now, for the third week in a row, the Wolves face a bottom of the table side as Leeds United comes calling to Molineux. This time, I’m jumping on the Wolves as Leeds a) isn’t very good and b) is off a rare win. 

That rare win for Leeds came against Norwich, the side sitting at the foot of the EPL table. Norwich have been relegation bound for some time now, but Leeds may very well join them given their YTD goal differential (-34), which is second worst in the entire Premier League. The Whites are currently 16th in the table with only 26 points and just four clear of the drop zone. Everton winning yesterday (1-0 over Newcastle United) puts even more pressure on. Given the freefall that preceded the win over Norwich, I cannot anticipate Leeds winning again here. They’ve yet to win B2B matches this season. 

Leeds were deserved winners last week, winning the xG battle, but it was nearly “heartbreak hotel” when they conceded an equalizer one minute into stoppage time. Improbably, Leeds then answered with a last gasp goal to grab all three points. While xGA says the Wolves have been a bit fortunate to concede the fourth fewest goals in the league this season, I don’t think they’re in any trouble here as they look to make it three consecutive clean sheets. It also helps that Leeds has conceded the MOST goals in the league at 65. The Wolves should have won the reverse fixture earlier this season, but gave up a stoppage time equalizer after leading 1-0 for 84 minutes. This time, they get it done. 10* Wolverhampton

8* Sassuolo (1:45 ET): Spezia picked up a rare win here in Serie A last weekend, besting Cagliari 2-0. That win certainly helped the Aquilotti in the race to avoid relegation as they are now seven points clear of safety. But I find it difficult to believe this side, which has struggled mightily for most of 2021-22, can make it B2B wins here in the Italian top flight, or even share the points with Sassuolo, who has scored two or more goals 18 times this season, including each of their last five. In other words, you certainly should not expect another clean sheet from the visitors. 

Sassuolo is firmly a mid-table side at this point, currently 10th with 40 points. The top four is certainly out of reach for I Neroverdi, but qualifying for the Europa League is certainly still in play as they are only eight points back of sixth. Still, needing to jump several sides in the table, last week’s 2-2 draw with last place Salernitana was a massive disappointment and not just because I was on Sassuolo. After conceding early (8th minute), Sassuolo struck back with two of their own, but unfortunately a red card was handed out in the 59th minute, leaving them a man down and they gave up the equalizer in the 81st minute. 

I can’t see Sassuolo making the same mistake again and dropping points to another bottom tier side in the league. They’d won three in a row prior to last week’s draw and are still unbeaten in the league in their last five matches. Meanwhile, Spezia had lost four in a row before picking up the full three points last week. Other than a three-match win streak back in January, Spezia has not won consecutive Serie A matches all season. This is an excellent time to fade as Spezia is bottom three in xPts this season. 8* Sassuolo

8* Loyola Chicago (12:15 ET): So, as many of you already know, I rely heavily on a team’s defensive efficiency rating this time of year. Well, in this matchup of Loyola Chicago and Ohio State, my side looks to have a major edge in that regard. Champions of the Missouri Valley, Loyola is #22 in the country in defensive efficiency. Ohio State is #130, easily the worst rating of anyone in the KenPom top 40. Look for the Ramblers to exploit this edge and move on to the Round of 32. 

Ohio State was upset LY in the first round of the tourney, as a 2-seed, losing 75-72 to Oral Roberts. That Buckeyes team was better than this edition, but still only rated 82nd in defensive efficiency. Now the problem seems to be even worse. Last year’s upset loss was also nothing new for Chris Holtmann. His teams are now just 11-17 SU all-time in Conference/NCAA Tournaments. That includes an early exit from this year’s Big 10 proceedings, 71-68 to Penn State as a 5.5-point favorite. Also, don’t discount the fact the Buckeyes had to play seven games from 2/19 to 3/6 as a result of postponements. 

Loyola ended up being the four seed for the MVC Tournament, but that was highly misleading as an OT loss to Northern Iowa on the final day of the regular season dropped them from the top spot and they fell victim to a tiebreaker. The Ramblers were always the best team in “the Valley” this season and showed it in the Conference Tourney, including a whipping of N Iowa 66-43. In its last five games that ended in regulation, Loyola has allowed no more than 58 points. While offensively, they don’t score a ton, the Ramblers do shoot 56% from two-point range, top 25 in the country. 8* Loyola Chicago

8* San Francisco (9:50 ET): I think the line is moving in the wrong direction here, for this 7 vs 10 matchup. Yes, I know Murray State is 30-2 SU and hasn’t lost since December 22nd to Auburn. But San Francisco is the better team from the better conference with a higher defensive efficiency rating. The Dons stayed undefeated into December and one-third (3 of 9) of their losses came to top-ranked Gonzaga. Other than Gonzaga, not a single team beat SF by more than five points this year! Five of their losses were by two points or less! So I’m taking full advantage of this line move and grabbing the points. 

My own power ratings are simply not as high on Murray State as some others. I’ve got the Racers just outside my Top 50. I know that they probably would have been an at-large team had they not won the OVC Tournament and got the automatic bid. But that was a fairly weak league, outside of Belmont and Morehead State, neither of whom were in my Top 85. Murray State also really benefited from the fact they shot 157 more free throws than their opponents this season and attempted 149 more field goals. If they’re not getting to the line and not getting those second chance opportunities, then they could be in real trouble. 

San Francisco has a strong backcourt and is also likely getting back big man Yauhen Massalski (13.5 points, 9.4 rebounds per game), which is a big boost. The Dons have not been in the NCAA Tournament since 1998, so they will be highly motivated here. Not that Murray State won’t be, but to me the Racers have the feel of being a bit “too trendy,” especially considering four of their last seven wins were by four points or fewer. Murray State lacks depth in the frontcourt and doesn’t shoot free throws well. San Francisco is outstanding at defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to hit less than 30% from deep. 8* San Francisco

9* Under Vermont/Arkansas (9:20 ET): This promises to be a very popular upset pick as Vermont is a very legit team out of the America East. The Catamounts come into the NCAA Tournament on a real roll, having won eight straight. They hit 60% of their two-point FG attempts and 40% from three-point range in conference play. But I think many be selling Arkansas “short,” as the Razorbacks are a Top 16 team in the country in defensive efficiency and clearly better than any of the other teams from the America East. What I like here is the game to go Under the total as Vermont’s shots won’t be falling at the normal rate. 

Note that doesn’t mean the Catamounts can’t win here. Arkansas shoots just 30.8% from three-point range, so I hardly see them “running away with things.” Even when the Hogs ripped off 13 wins in 15 games, their three-point percentage didn’t go up much. In five of their last seven games, they shot BELOW their already poor season average from behind the arc. In 9 of 20 conference games, the Razorbacks averaged less than one point per possession. Vermont’s defense is not at all bad (just 60.3 PPG allowed), so again, I’m not looking for the favorite to score a ton here. 

Arkansas’ last six games all went Over the total, so I think we’re getting a good number here. Vermont has not lost in regulation since Dec 7, but again, you have to take into account the weak competition. Five of the Catamounts’ last six games stayed Under and the one that didn’t required a 98-point effort from them, the likes of which we clearly will not see here, against lowly NJIT. I do think this play comes down to Vermont’s defense, which has not allowed more than 61 points in a game since Valentine’s Day. Given Arkansas’ poor three-point shooting, they’ve got a shot. The Under is 5-1 in Arkansas’ last six NCAA Tourney games. 9* Under Vermont/Arkansas

10* UConn (6:50 ET): We all know the history of the 5-12 (seed) matchup. In 31 of the last 36 Tournaments, at least one 12-seed has won a first round game. But only one did so last year and that team (Oregon State) came from a P5 conference. I just don’t see it here with New Mexico State and, in fact, I believe 5-seed UConn should be an even larger favorite here. The Huskies have won seven of their past nine games and the two losses were by a combined five points. My own power ratings suggest this should be a double digit spread. So I’m laying the points.

UConn is a team with tremendous length, one that grabs the second highest percentage of its own misses in the country. Only Kentucky had a higher offensive rebound percentage. When 6’9” Adama Sanogo is on the floor, the Huskies rebound 39% of their misses and also make 39% of their 3PA. Sanogo missed the team’s lone meeting with Big East Champ Providence this year. I don’t think NMSU has any ability to match up with him and UConn’s massive edge in size and length is going to be a big problem for the underdog in this one. 

New Mexico State is making its 10th NCAA Tournament appearance since 2007 under four different coaches. The problem is the Aggies have not won in the Big Dance since 1993. The WAC is a really weak league. Concerning for NMSU is their turnover rate (21%) as UConn is certainly better than most teams the Aggies have faced. I know NMSU hasn’t lost a game by more than four points since January, but again … the competition. They lost to a terrible Chicago State team. UConn is looking to end its own NCAA Tourney drought as their last win in the Big Dance came back in 2016 . Look for that to end here as the Huskies win BIG. 10* UConn

8* Marquette (4:30 ET): Once again, this is a matchup where I feel the public is “loading up” far too much on one side, given the respective seedings. Marquette did not have a particularly strong finish to its regular season, going 4-6 SU L10 and getting bounced from the Big East Tournament, 74-63 by Creighton. But I’m not all that impressed with North Carolina as the ACC was “down” significantly this season and the Tar Heels only finished third. They did go on a late season run, including a win over Duke in Coach K’s final home game. But that’s overvalued them a bit. They lost by 13 to Va Tech in the ACC Tourney.

Marquette had some close losses down the stretch and thus their SU record could be a lot better. The Golden Eagles have a higher defensive efficiency rating than UNC, something I look at this time of year. In fact, the Tar Heels are giving up a whopping 77.4 PPG outside of Chapel Hill. That simply will not get it done in an NCAA Tournament game, especially when favored. Marquette had the Big East’s most efficient offense inside the three-point arc, shooting 53.1% on 2PA, and they were also 37% from three-point range. Bottom line: I look for Marquette to SCORE in this matchup. 

I know that Marquette HC Shaka Smart didn’t win a NCAA Tournament game at Texas and his Golden Eagles were picked to finish ninth in the preseason Big East poll. But they might be better than UNC at BOTH ends of the floor. Defensively, no team in the Big East was better at defending the three-point line. Opponents made just 31.8% from behind the arc against the Golden Eagles. North Carolina is a team that often loses when it’s not making its threes (2-7 SU against Quad 1 teams). Also, Marquette led the Big East in steal rate. Let’s not forget UNC lost at home to Pitt last month. Marquette swept Villanova this year and beat Providence once. 8* Marquette

8* Boise State (1:45 ET): Memphis seems to be far too popular a choice here, given the seeding. I know the Tigers are a hot team, winners of 12 of their last 14, but they just got blown out in the AAC Title Game by Houston (71-53) and have to contend with a similarly hot Boise State squad. The Broncos, who will be supremely motivated by the fact the program has NEVER won a NCAA Tournament game (0-7 SU all-time), were regular season and conference tournament champions in the Mountain West. They’ve won 24 of their last 27 games and are an excellent team defensively. Take the points.

With a Top 20 defensive efficiency rating, Boise State allows just 60.8 PPG. They held Colorado State (also a NCAA Tournament team) to 52 in the MWC Tourney Final. Offensively, though they didn’t really show it in that win over CSU, the Broncos are also very good. They’ve shot 50% or better in six of the last nine games. While Memphis has improved defensively throughout the season, the Tigers still are allowing 68.4 PPG. Boise State has lost only three games since the start of February and two of those were by just three points each. 

Memphis also has a major albatross and that is they turn the ball over way too much; nearly one-quarter of their possessions to be exact. Though they did beat Houston twice down the stretch, the Tigers’ “resurgence” mostly came against bad AAC teams that didn’t make the Tournament. Houston is better than any team from the MWC, but overall I’d say the Mountain West was stronger than the American this season. Boise State is 7-2 ATS as an underdog this year and I think the better team is getting points in this matchup. 8* Boise State

8* Michigan (12:15 ET): So both of these teams enter the NCAA Tournament with “chips” on their respective shoulders. Colorado State felt like it was snubbed from LY’s Tourney, so the Rams left little doubt in the minds of the committee this year with a 25-5 regular season. But it’s telling that - despite being ranked #24 in the country and the higher seed - CSU is still an underdog to a Michigan team that is just 17-14 SU and barely got in the field. I think it’s the Wolverines who are not only better, but have more to prove in this Round of 64 matchup. I’m laying the points. 

Don’t be fooled by Michigan’s record vis a vis Colorado State’s. The Wolverines played a much more challenging schedule, one that saw them play 15 “Quadrant 1” teams. KenPom has their schedule rated as the fifth toughest in the country. They successfully navigated their HC Juwan Howard being suspended, going 3-2, and should have beaten Indiana in the Big 10 Tournament (were up 17). Michigan is a team that, despite its record, is still considered Top 25 by my own personal power ratings. Let’s not forget they were in the Elite 8 a year ago. 

Colorado State not only played a weaker schedule (84th), but I thought they were a bit lucky this year (4th in luck rating at KenPom). The Rams also favor a significant matchup disadvantage here, going against MIchigan’s Hunter Dickinson, one of the best big men in America. The Rams are 304th (in the country) in average height and allowed Mountain West teams to connect at a 51% clip on two-point attempts in conference play. That’s not good. Offensively, they only averaged 55.5 points in two MWC Tourney games. Lay the points. 8* Michigan

8* Under Celtics/Warriors (10:10 ET): This promises to be a good game. You’ve got Boston, who I believe is actually the best team in the Eastern Conference right now, going against a Golden State club that needs little introduction. It’s on ESPN. Everyone likes to see scoring, like what we got with last night’s Over play on Brooklyn-Orlando (which included a 60-point individual effort from Kyrie Irving). But here I expect the scoring to stay low as we’ve got two of the best defensive teams in the league. Take the Under.

Boston has gone 23-7 SU over its last 30 games. They were below .500 when they lost to the Warriors 111-107 back on Dec 17. The turnaround has been engineered, in large part, because of a defense that is tied for tops in the league in efficiency this season. The Celtics are allowing just 103.9 PPG this season on 43.2% shooting. They did lose on Sunday, but you can’t blame the defense as they held the Mavs to only 95 points. The Under is 10-5 this season for Boston when the OU line is 220 or higher. 

Who is Boston tied with for the league’s #1 defensive efficiency rating? That would be the Warriors! Here at home, Golden State gives up just 102.3 PPG on 42.2% shooting. Everyone rightly thinks of the Dubs as an offensive juggernaut, but when they were winning championships, their defensive numbers were always among the best in the league. Draymond Green is now back, which is key for the defense. Now the Warriors have gone out and averaged 124 PPG themselves the L2 games, but don’t expect them to approach that number here. Curry won’t score 47 again like he did vs. Washington Monday. 8* Under Celtics/Warriors

10* Under Notre Dame/Rutgers (9:10 ET): Notre Dame finished the regular season as the 2-seed in the ACC, but I thought it would have been pretty ludicrous to consider the Fighting Irish the second best team in that conference. My power ratings had four ACC teams rated higher, including Wake Forest, who didn’t even make the Big Dance. The Irish could only manage a 3-3 split in their last six games, but still made their first NCAA Tournament appearance in five years.

Rutgers had some nice upsets this season, including four straight wins over Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Illinois. However, three of those four were in Piscataway and the Scarlet Knights simply aren’t the same team away from home that they are at the RAC. They have just four wins away from home all season and have dropped four of six overall. Rutgers was in the Tourney last year and made the Round of 32. Led by Ron Harper Jr, this is the first time the program has made B2B appearances in the Big Dance in 40 years. 

I think this one is set to be low-scoring and I am on the Under. I know that the Over is 7-0-1 in ND’s last eight games, but they are facing a Rutgers team that is 43rd in the country in defensive efficiency. That’s significant because no ACC teams rank higher than that. On the flip side, Rutgers only shoots 33.6% from three-point range and that’s not going to cut it. Before losing to Iowa in the Big 10 Tournament, the Scarlet Knights had not topped 66 in four straight games, all of which stayed Under. 10* Under Notre Dame/Rutgers

10* Philadelphia (7:10 ET): The way things stand currently, this would be a first round playoff matchup in the East. While the underlying metrics suggest that it is Cleveland (the current 6-seed) who has had the “better” season overall, I don’t think the upstart Cavaliers would want to see the Sixers in a seven-game series. For starters, Philly beat them 125-119 when they last met (on March 4th). The Sixers are also clearly a stronger team now (because of James Harden) than they were in the first half of the season. 

Harden was in the Sixers’ lineup for that March 4th win over Cleveland. He scored 25 points. Each of Philly’s first five games with Harden in the lineup saw the team score at least 125. But the L5 have been a bit of a different story with them averaging just 105.8. But that number is a little misleading because it includes a 99-82 loss at Miami where Harden sat. I should also mention Joel Embiid, who leads the NBA in scoring at 29.9 PPG. The Harden-Embiid duo clearly makes Philly one of the top teams in the East. 

Now I did fade the Sixers their last time out, and they lost 114-110 (at home) to Denver. But the Nuggets are a better team than the Cavs. Note that Philly did jump out to an early 17-point lead over Denver. Cleveland comes into this game banged up, playing without All-Star Jarrett Allen as well as Rajon Rondo. So I don’t expect them to play as well as they did the last time they faced this Sixers team. Before beating the Clippers in OT on Monday, the Cavs had dropped two straight and five of seven. I know this is a reversal of Monday - when I faded Philly and took Cleveland (won both bets). But the matchup calls for it as I just think the 76ers are the far better team right now. 10* Philadelphia

8* Bryant (6:40 ET): No matter who prevails in this “First Four” matchup, it won’t be a long NCAA Tournament stay for either Bryant or Wright State as the winner will go on to face the South's #1 seed, Arizona, in the Round of 64. Bryant, champions of the NEC, is making its first ever appearance in the Big Dance. Wright State, out of the Horizon League, is making its fourth (and first since 2018). Due to the perceived home court advantage for the Raiders (their campus is located just an hour away from Dayton), bettors seem willing to hitch their wagon. But I’m not convinced they should be the favorites here.

Wright State has three double digit scorers, but little in the way of depth as four players are averaging 32+ minutes for HC Scott Nagy. If there’s foul trouble, the Raiders are going to be in big trouble here. Nagy seemed disappointed that his team was put in the “First Four,” but the reality is they were down 16 (with 11:47 left!) in the Horizon League Tourney Final against Northern Kentucky, so they’re a bit lucky to even be here. It was a one-point win, 72-71, in that game. Wright State is 262nd in defensive efficiency, worst among all 68 teams in the Tournament. 

That shaky defense will be tested by Bryant’s Peter Kiss, who is the nation’s leading scorer at 28.2 PPG and does an excellent job at getting to the FT line. The Bulldogs have lost just one game since Jan 6. In the NEC Tourney Final, they destroyed a very good Wagner team 70-43, which made me look foolish (I had Wagner). I know that Bryant benefited from some really poor three-point shooting by opponents in conference play. But Wright State shoots just 32.8% from long distance and I don’t think they are the team to exploit the Bulldogs’ defense. 8* Bryant

10* Liverpool (4:15 ET): After losing last week’s second leg of the Champions League tie with Inter Milan (still advanced on aggregate), Liverpool wasted no time in bouncing back on the domestic front, beating Brighton & Hove Albion 2-0 in the return to the Premier League. That win was the Reds’ eighth straight here in the EPL and third consecutive “clean sheet.” Six times during the 8-0 run here in the EPL, Liverpool has not allowed a goal. They now trail Man City by only four points for first in the table after the Citizens were held to a 0-0 draw by Crystal Palace on Monday. This is a golden opportunity to further close the gap. I believe they will. 

Arsenal is currently fourth, holding onto that last Champions League spot, and the Gunners have to be feeling good about their chances as they have three matches in hand compared to the three sides directly below them in the table. They too are in fine form with five consecutive Premier League victories, the most recent being 2-0 over Leicester City. But, as I’m about to get into, Liverpool has had Arsenal’s number in recent meetings.

Going back to September 2020, Arsenal has failed to score a single goal in five head to head meetings with Liverpool. The most recent was a 2-0 loss in the EFL Cup semi-finals. It was a 4-0 win for Liverpool at Anfield in Premier League action, earlier this season. I just think that there’s a real “gap” in quality between the top three and Arsenal this season and we’re about to be reminded of that. Liverpool has the best GD in the EPL and I would not be shocked if they overtook Man City for first place by season’s end. 10* Liverpool

9* Villarreal (4:00 ET): I’m a little surprised at how the tide has seemingly “turned” against Villarreal, one of the hottest sides in all of Europe, following their 1-1 draw with Juventus in the first leg of this Round of 16 Champions League battle. Yes, it was terribly disappointing not to get the win on home soil. But I thought the Yellow Submarine looked like the better side in that match, winning both the possession and xG battles. They conceded a goal just thirty seconds in, but after that were the better team the rest of the way. So I am taking them +0.5 on the goal line in the second leg. (Must be at least even after 90 mins + stoppage time). 

Since Dec 10, when the UCL Group State ended, Villarreal has been averaging 1.95 xG per match while allowing just 0.93. That is very impressive. While still only seventh in the La Liga table, the Yellow Submarine have the third best GD in that league and should be higher. Looking at their current position on the domestic front, there’s probably a greater importance of winning this tournament, compared to the other remaining sides as there is far less of a guarantee that they will be returning next season. 

Juventus has moved up to fourth place in Serie A after what was a shaky start to the season. But their underlying metrics (in a weaker league) are not as strong as Villarreal’s. I know they are unbeaten in their last 12 fixtures across all competitions and have not lost at home in 2022. But It would not all surprise me to see Villarreal pull off the “upset” here, or like I said, at the very least be even at the end of stoppage time. Take the +0.5 on the goal line in this one. 9* Villarreal

9* Mainz 05 (1:30 ET): For the first time in nearly a month, Mainz will step back onto the pitch, looking to further its chase for the European places in the Bundesliga. We last saw this side back on Feb 26, losing at Union Berlin by a score of 3-1. With all that has unfolded since, Mainz now finds itself 10th in the table, which is higher than usual but also disappointing given that they have a better YTD goal differential than the four teams directly ahead of them. At home and rested, I think they do no worse than a draw on Wednesday. 

Meanwhile, Borussia Dortmund is still somehow within striking distance of first place Bayern Munich, only seven points shy of the summit. I feel that Bayern should be running away with another Bundesliga title (would be their 10th straight), but recent struggles from the table leaders have caused this race to stay interesting. Dortmund is unbeaten in its last four competitions, including a 1-0 win over Arminia Bielefeld last week. But, at what point does the transfer talk surrounding Erling Haaland (rumored to be headed to Man City) begin to affect the club? I think soon!

Mainz has only lost once on home soil this entire season, fewest in the entire Bundesliga. So that’s a key advantage coming into Wednesday’s fixture. Also, I really feel they ought to be higher in the table. Between this and Saturday’s date with Bielefeld, they’ve got an excellent shot at making up points this week. Obviously, they’re well-rested. Finally, you’ve got the fact that Dortmund has been a massive overachiever when it comes to goal scoring this season. They are +14.53 over their xG total. 9* Mainz 05

analysis soon

10* Over Nets/Magic (7:10 ET): Yes, Orlando needed OT to get Over the total in their last game, a 116-114 loss to Philadelphia. But I think it’s highly unlikely they hold the Nets to 38.0% shooting like they did with the Sixers on Sunday. This is a high total, but for good reason as not only is Kevin Durant back, but Kyrie Irving will play for Brooklyn. I see the Nets putting up a big number tonight. While I don’t necessarily trust them to cover the spread, I do like the Over here. 

I had the Over in that Philly-Orlando game, so I for one welcomed overtime. The Magic, who have been playing better of late, led by 12 at halftime and were still up 10 in the 4Q. The key to building that lead was the 76ers shooting just 33% in the 1H. Again, I can’t see Brooklyn shooting that poorly tonight. The Nets have shot 50% or better from the floor in four of their last six games, a stretch that coincides with Durant coming back. The L3 games with Durant & Irving in the lineup have all seen the Nets score at least 120 points. 

Both Durant and Irving have turned in 50+ point performances recently. On Sunday, with Irving (unvaccinated) out of the lineup, the Nets won 110-107 over the Knicks with Durant scoring 53. The team shot just 20.7% from three-point range with non-Durant players combining to go 2 of 16. I expect much better shooting tonight. With Brooklyn likely to pile up the points here, we shouldn’t need a huge number from Orlando. Fortunately for them, the Nets are giving up 111.7 PPG this season. The Over is 6-2-1 in the Nets’ L9 road games. 10* Over Nets/Magic

10* Belmont (7:00 ET): The NIT gets underway on Tuesday and you can call this “the Battle of Nashville” with Vanderbilt hosting Belmont in first round action. The underdog Bruins should be psyched for this matchup as it is a chance to beat a SEC program that is located right in their “backyard.” I believe Belmont is the better team here and the clincher is the fact they’ve been off for more than ten days while Vandy is just four days removed from the grind of the SEC Tournament. Take the points here. 

Belmont’s run in the OVC (Ohio Valley) Tourney ended with a disappointing two-point loss to Morehead State in the semifinal. That was just the second loss for Belmont, going back to mid-January. Since 2022 began, the only teams to beat the Bruins were Morehead State and Murray State. There have been only five instances this season where this team was beaten by more than three points. Rarely are they underdogs; just four times all season have the Bruins been getting points and three of those occasions were part of the non-conference schedule, back before X-Mas. 

Vanderbilt is one of the weaker SEC teams, though they are currently on a 7-1 ATS run. That’s in stark contrast to Belmont’s 1-8 ATS slide coming into tonight. But Vandy’s recent ATS success is a byproduct of typically being the underdog. They did have a nice upset of Alabama in the SEC Tourney, but were down 15 in the 2H of that game. Belmont is 3-0 ATS the previous three times they’ve played with seven or more days rest. I like the idea of the better team getting points and I think Belmont will be the more motivated team tonight as well. 10* Belmont

8* Denver (7:40 ET): Playing side AND total in this matchup and let’s start by analyzing the former. Denver, despite four straight ATS losses, seems to be in a great spot here as Philadelphia is in the second night of a back to back and had to go to overtime last night to defeat Orlando (who has the worst record in the Eastern Conference). This line, perhaps influenced by the recent addition of James Harden for the 76ers, opened way too high. Take the points. 

The Nuggets are looking to bounce back from an embarrassing 127-115 defeat at home, which came against the Raptors. The final score there is a little deceiving as Denver led going into the 4Q. They had 99 points through three quarters, but went cold in the fourth, scoring only 16. Getting dominated in second chance points did not help matters. Still, there’s plenty of reasons to “keep the faith,” especially since the Nuggets have won five straight on the road. 

Philly won its first five games with Harden in the lineup, but then was blown out Thursday here at home by Brooklyn, then struggled to get by Orlando last night. The Sixers trailed by six going into the fourth quarter and have now failed to cover in four of the last five games, a sign that Harden has made them a bit overrated in the marketplace. The Nuggets have Nikola Jokic and this game marks just the third time over the last month that they have been underdogs. 8* Denver

10* Under Nuggets/Sixers (7:40 ET): Also going with the Under in this matchup. Reason being I was a little lucky to cash the Over in last night’s Sixers game, as it went to OT tied at 104. The O/U line was 222.5, so the Over was a loser in regulation, but the 22 points we got in the added five minutes were the difference maker. Philly’s previous three games had all stayed Under and while one of those was with Harden out of the lineup, they’ve generally played solid defense (except in the loss to Brooklyn). 

Denver needs to get back to playing better defense after allowing an average of 118.8 points over its last five games. I believe they will get back to doing so tonight. For the year, they are giving up 106.4 PPG, so it’s a big difference from what we’ve been seeing lately. Philadelphia has also allowed more points than usual over its last five games. 

The 76ers have posted an outstanding defensive efficiency rating when Harden and Joel Embiid are on the court together. The number had even rivaled the Celtics, the league-leaders in defensive efficiency. Denver won’t shoot 55% again like it did on Saturday, even though I believe they cover the spread here. 10* Under Nuggets/Sixers

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): This is a bad spot for the Clippers, who only managed to squeak by the Pistons last night. Now, I know I had LA in that one, as a 4.5-point favorite on the road. They won by just four after Detroit’s Cade Cunningham made a “meaningless” layup with just 8.2 seconds remaining. But to get the SU win, the Clips had to outscore the Pistons 67-49 in the 2H. This team remains short-handed (no George or Leonard) and there’s no real sense of urgency here as they seem destined for a play-in spot in the Western Conference.

Meanwhile, the Cavs are desperate to hold on to a top six spot in the East. They’ve lost 8 of 11 amidst several key injuries and are also just 2-8-1 ATS in that same stretch. On Saturday, the Cavs went to Chicago for a key game and lost 101-91 as 5.5-point underdogs. That leaves them just one game ahead of seventh place Toronto. But they are still fourth in both point differential and net efficiency. I think tonight is a great spot for JB Bickerstaff’s team to get back on track, despite not having some key players. 

Back in October, Cleveland routed the Clippers 92-79 out in LA. That helped set the tone for a rather shocking first half of the season as the Cavs were arguably the league’s most pleasant surprise. They’ve taken a hit over the last month or so, but are still a much better team than the Clippers and I look for the Cavs to get back to playing solid defense tonight. They are #2 in the NBA in scoring defense (103.7 PPG allowed) and only give up 100.6 PPG at home. Lay the points. 8* Cleveland

10* Crystal Palace +1.5 (4:00 ET): Note that I’m playing the goal line (+1.5) in this fixture, so a Crystal Palace win, draw or even loss by one goal means we’re winners. Now fading Man City in this spot may seem a bit “risky,” but this will be the Citizens fourth match already in March, across three different competitions. Having already progressed in both the FA Cup and Champions League, the Premier League leaders also turned in an impressive 4-1 thrashing of rivals Manchester United last week. I think that there’s GOT to be some sort of letdown in store for them and CP has proven itself to be a “tough out” on home soil.

Crystal Palace currently finds itself 11th in the table, with 33 points, however the Eagles should probably be higher given that they are eighth in the league in xPts. CP comes in on a four-match unbeaten run across all competitions, including their own advancement in the FA Cup. They ran out to a 2-0 win over Wolverhampton last week and have the edge here in the sense they haven’t played since last Saturday while Man City had to play the second leg of its Round of 16 Champions League tie with Sporting Lisbon on Wednesday. That ended up being a drab 0-0 draw. 

As mentioned earlier, Crystal Palace has been a “tough out” on home soil this season and should have more points. They are actually fourth in the league in xPts at home, so they are due for a positive result here. Remember that the Eagles shocked Man City earlier in the season with a 2-0 win at Etihad. The revenge angle, while in play for Man City, has clearly caused them to be overvalued for the rematch and I’ll gladly take the 1.5 goals in my “back pocket” with the underdog in this one. Man City comes into this one a little depleted on the back end. 10* Crystal Palace +1.5 

7* Real Madrid (4:00 ET): Hard for me to see Real Madrid, the leaders in La Liga, dropping points to relegation-threatened Mallorca in this Monday fixture. Los Blancos are looking to make it four straight wins in La Liga - and five in a row overall. They are coming off a thrilling 3-1 win over PSG in the Champions League, which allowed them to advance to the final eight in that competition. Here on the domestic front, Real Madrid has outscored its last three opponents by an aggregate of 8-1. They are seven points clear at the summit of the table after second place Sevilla had to settle for a draw on Sunday. 

Recent form has been much different for Mallorca, who has dropped four straight league matches, including a wild 4-3 setback at the hands of Celta Vigo last week. You may recall that I had Celta Vigo, citing the fact Mallorca had picked up only eight points on their travels this entire season. It was a brutal loss for the Pirates after equalizing on three different occasions, once via a Celta own goal and another on a late penalty. But it was Manolo Reina being shown a red card that led to the game-winner, a penalty in the seventh minute of stoppage time, causing a brutal result for Mallorca. 

Mallorca still sits 16th in the table, just two points clear of safety. They have the third worst GD in La Liga (-19), are tied for the second most goals allowed and only Alaves and Levante (the bottom two sides) have more losses. While the Pirates have been a bit more competitive on home soil this season, let’s not forget Real Madrid has the best away mark in La Liga with 29 points picked up from 13 matches. Also, Los Blancos won the reverse 6-1 back in September, which was their highest scoring match to date. I just find it very hard to believe the table leaders don’t take the full three here as they look to make it a 10 point lead over everyone else. 7* Real Madrid

10* Over Sixers/Magic (6:10 ET): Two teams off surprising results meet Sunday in Orlando. The Sixers have had two days to recover from their 29-point beatdown at the hands of Brooklyn. That was the first time they lost with James Harden in the lineup. The fact that the loss came at the hands of Harden’s former team made it a bit more painful. Orlando, meanwhile, turned in a shocking performance on Friday, beating the T’wolves 118-110 as a 7.5-point home underdog. They were my 10* Game of the Week! 

That was the Magic’s second straight upset win as well as their fifth victory in the last eight games overall, so Philly must take this game seriously. I think they will. Consider that in the first five games with Harden in the lineup, the Sixers scored no fewer than 121 points. The last two matchups vs. Orlando have seen them score 116 and 123 points and that was before Harden came over. The Sixers shot just 32.3% against the Nets, a number they will easily eclipse here. They are 5-0 Over on Sundays this season. 

Orlando can only hope for the kind of offensive day against Philly that Brooklyn enjoyed. The Sixers gave up 40 points in the first quarter and 72 in the first half. The Magic did make 15 of 30 three-point attempts over the final three quarters against Minnesota. Their last five games have all stayed Under, but I think there’s reason to be concerned over how the Magic defense will hold up here. I do think they score enough to help send this one OVER the total. 10* Over Sixers/Magic

8* Purdue (3:30 ET): We’ve got the potential for a real “shootout” here in the Big 10 Tournament Final as it’s a matchup of the two most efficient offenses in the entire country. But Iowa, playing its fourth game in four days, is at a disadvantage from where I sit. After pretty much breezing through their first two tourney games (beat N’western 112-76 and Rutgers 84-74), the Hawkeyes needed a second half rally to overcome Indiana in yday’s semifinal. Purdue ended up beating Michigan State by only five in the other semi, but led virtually the entire game. I’m going with who I feel has been the best Big 10 team all season. 

The Boilermakers beat the Hawkeyes both times in the regular season, 77-70 in West Lafayette and 83-73 in Iowa City. They had double digit halftime leads in both games and completely smoked the Iowa defense the last time they met, shooting 61.2% for the game, including 13 of 22 from three-point range. I realize that Purdue is 0-7-1 ATS its last eight games, but the pointspread won’t be a factor here as we’re basically needing just a SU win. 

Iowa has hit 40 three-pointers in the three tournament games, which is quite ridiculous and eventually those shots won’t keep falling. Had they “only” made 39, there’s a chance they wouldn’t be here as it was Jordan Bohannon’s three with less than one second remaining yesterday that got them here. Meanwhile, Purdue was up by as many as 13 in the 2H on Saturday. The Boilermakers are 24-0 SU this season when scoring 70+ points and will almost certainly hit that benchmark today, given Iowa gives up 71.3 PPG. 8* Purdue

8* LA Clippers (3:10 ET): The Pistons, 18-49 with the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference, are getting far too much respect from the oddsmakers here, even if they are at home and have covered nine in a row. The Clippers will be desperate for a win here after losing in Atlanta Friday night, 112-106. The Clips at least covered the spread in that game (were +7.5), but clearly felt like they should have won, if not for some whistles not going their way. Marcus Morris’ ejection in the third quarter really hurt. 

The Pistons’ recent ATS run is a little shocking and with a short-handed lineup, it figures to end here. Multiple players in the regular rotation missed Friday’s 114-103 loss at Boston (where the Pistons were 14-point underdogs). Detroit lost by 11 even though the Celtics shot just 6 of 32 from three-point range. The Pistons allowed the Celtics to shoot 62% inside the arc and make 24 free throws. You also can almost never count on the Pistons’ offense, which is 28th in efficiency and 29th in points per game.

The Clippers obviously are still without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, but they are a top 10 team in defensive efficiency and thus I don’t see them giving up many points here this afternoon. While LA certainly looks “safe” when it comes to making the play-in round, a loss here could be potentially devastating. It’s very rare to only have to lay a few points to go against this Pistons team, which has been an underdog in all but three games this season. It’s time to “sell high” on their ATS win streak. 8* LA Clippers

10* Under Alaves/Real Sociedad (1:30 ET): Sociedad has managed to stay in the top seven of La Liga, despite a -1 GD, and a win here could move them as high as fifth. But looking at the other clubs fighting for the European positions, Sociedad’s YTD GD really does “stick out like a sore thumb” and I remain leery. Last week’s 4-1 thrashing at the hands of table leaders Real Madrid illustrates the gap in quality between Sociedad and the top six, thus I won’t be backing them to collect the full three points here. 

Now I’m also not about to back Alaves, who sit 19th and in the relegation zone. El Glorioso are now winless in 14 of their last 15 fixtures after last week’s 0-0 draw with Sevilla. They should be somewhat commended for keeping Sevilla off the scoresheet, however scoring also continues to be a major problem for Alaves themselves as they come in dead last in the league in goals scored with just 21. There has been just one occasion since the new year where they scored more than one goal. Five times they haven’t scored at all. 

La Real has only averaged 1.17 xG per match in 2022 and for the season they are just 13th in shots. So the offense isn’t really where most expected it to be. They’ll be dealing with some absences from the usual starting XI on Sunday as well. Sociedad knows that it might only take a single goal to prevail here; I don’t see them scoring twice. At the same time, they probably don’t need to worry about Alaves scoring. It was 1-1 when these teams met on Jan 2. Expect another low-scoring battle. 10* Under Alaves/Real Sociedad

10* Princeton (12:00 ET): Princeton was the clear class of the Ivy League this season, but even at 23-5 SU, their resume isn’t strong enough to guarantee an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament. So the Tigers MUST win here against long-time rival Yale in the Ivy League Tournament Final. They come in riding an eight-game win streak after ousting Cornell in the semifinals yesterday, 77-73, a game where they did not cover the spread. Yale did cover on Saturday, beating Penn 67-61 as three-point chalk, and has won 10 of 12. The teams split the regular season series, each winning in the other’s gym. 

This rubber match is being played in Harvard’s gym, so no home court advantage for Princeton. But they do have a clear advantage on the offensive end of the floor as they rank eighth in the country in points per game (80.6) and seventh in three-point shooting (38.8%). Yale may normally be tough defensively, holding six of its last nine opponents to 65 points or less, but Princeton dropped 81 on them the last time they met. The Tigers have shot better than 50% each of their last three games.

I know that Yale underachieved during the non-conference portion of the schedule, but Princeton has been the better team all season and it would be a bit of a shame if the Tigers aren’t the ones to grab the automatic bid. Yale typically feasts on getting to the free throw line and offensive rebounds, but Princeton is typically pretty good at limiting those two things. Yale is also just 4-11 ATS off an ATS win. 10* Princeton

10* Under Va Tech/Duke (8:30 ET): This is a crucial game for Virginia Tech, who is considered among the “first four out” (for the NCAA Tournament) according to both ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm. Coming into the ACC Tournament, I had the Hokies as the second best team in the conference, so I’m not surprised they’ve made it thus far. They were actually a pick ‘em vs. #2 seed Notre Dame, then turned in a very impressive performance last night in defeating North Carolina 72-59. 

It would be a crime if Va Tech missed the NCAA Tournament as my power rankings call them a Top 25 team in the country. My only concern with the Hokies coming into tonight’s Tourney Final vs. Duke is that they may not have a ton left in the tank. This will be their fourth game in as many days, a stretch which began with an OT win over Clemson. I also would not be confident in the Hokies shooting 45% from three-point range again like they did last night. The Hokies have scored above their season average in every game in this tournament. Do we really think they can do that for the fourth straight game?

Duke is 0-2 ATS in ACC Tournament games, having been tested more than expected by Syracuse and Miami. We know the Blue Devils can score, but even by their standard, the past five games (all of which have gone Over) have been a bit outrageous. They are averaging 86.4 points on 51.4% shooting. Those numbers are due to come down. Va Tech held UNC to 3 of 26 from three-point range last night. When these teams played in the regular season, they snuck over by two points, but that was with Duke shooting 53% from the field. I don’t think they’ll shoot that well here. 10* Under Va Tech/Duke

10* Miami (8:10 ET): Looking to fade Minnesota for the second night in a row. Last night worked out pretty well, didn’t it? I said it was time to “sell high” on the T’wolves, who were on a 6-0 SU and ATS win streak going into Orlando. They lost outright, as a 7.5-point favorite, 118-110. Keep in mind that the Magic entered that game with the lowest win percentage in the entire NBA. Now, without rest, the T’wolves must turn around and face the East-leading Heat on the road. I’m fading the T’wolves again, though this time we must LAY points to do so. 

Miami was also in action Friday as they beat Cleveland 117-105 as an eight-point favorite. The Heat are now 45-23 SU on the season and have a 2.5 game lead over Milwaukee for the top spot in the East. They are now 6-1 ATS their last seven games. Last night ensured they’d keep alive a streak which has seen them not lose B2B games in almost two months. The Heat are 13-3 SU since Feb 3 and are a top six team in both offensive and defensive efficiency this season. 

As mentioned in yday’s analysis, Minnesota is subpar on the road (16-18 SU), mainly because of the fact it gives up an average of 116.9 PPG on their travels. The T’wolves are just 1-5 ATS when coming off a SU loss as a favorite and I don’t think the jump in class (in terms of opponent) can be overstated here. The T’wolves previous five games saw them face the Thunder twice, Blazers twice and Magic. Those three teams are a combined 73 games below .500! The offensive production is due to curtail. 10* Miami

analysis soon

8* Bayern Munich (9:30 AM ET): After absolutely thrashing Salzburg midweek in the Champions League (won 7-1!), Bayern Munich next turns its attention back to the domestic front where they’ll look to widen the gap atop the Bundesliga. Bayern currently has a nine point lead over Borussia Dortmund, but really the gap should be much larger as the nine-time defending champs are once again the class of this league. After a disappointing 1-1 draw with Leverkusen last week, I think that Bayern is about to remind everyone “who’s boss” one more time on Saturday. 

They are set to face Hoffenheim, another top four side, although you could certainly question whether or not Die Kraichgauer “deserve” to be this high in the table. I certainly believe RB Leipzig (who currently sits in fifth) to be better and Hoffenheim is actually 7th in xPts. Off four consecutive victories, the home side is definitely confident rolling into Saturday’s fixture, however let us not forget they were crushed 4-0 in the reverse against Bayern, back in October. 

During the four-game win streak, the only team in the top half of the table that Hoffenheim has defeated was Koln, last week by a score of 1-0. I just can’t see the win streak continuing here and even the chance of sharing the points (draw) seems remote, given that they have been outscored 8-1 the last two times they’ve faced Bayern and conceded four or more times in four of the last five meetings. Look for the visitors to claim all three points here. 8* Bayern Munich

10* Sassuolo (9:00 AM ET): Salernitana, at the foot of the table (last place) in Serie A, is staring some dubious history in the face. After getting beat 5-0 by Inter Milan last week, the Granata have now conceded 61 goals in 26 matches this season. Only 10 other sides in Serie A history have done that and eight of them, including Crotone last year, ended up being relegated at season’s end. Currently 10 points adrift of safety, I don’t think there’s any doubt at this point that Salernitana won’t be able to escape the drop zone.

If the last place team thinks things are going to get any easier this week, they better think again because in comes red hot Sassuolo, who has won three straight to move into the top half of the table with 39 points. Despite those winning ways, Sassuolo remains eight points back of the European places (needing to finish at least 6th), so they will view this as a golden opportunity to pick up three more. Since the start of 2022, only four Serie A sides have picked up more points and last week saw Sassuolo dismantle another relegation-threatened side, Venezia, 4-1. 

The home edge means little to Salernitana here as they’ve picked up a league low eight points on home soil and haven’t won here at Stadio Arechi in any of their last nine tries. Going by xG, they very much “deserved” to be beaten badly by Inter last week. It was only 1-0 (in Sassuolo’s favor) in the reverse fixture back in September, but now Sassuolo comes in having scored multiple goals in four straight matches (10 total). 10* Sassuolo

10* Under USC/UCLA (11:30 ET): This is one of the better matchups on Friday’s entire docket as rivals USC and UCLA meet in the Pac 12 Tournament’s second semi final. USC had to rally in the second half last night to get by Washington 65-61 and did not cover the 6.5-point spread. UCLA just barely covered the nine-point spread in a 75-65 win over Washington State. UCLA comes in ranked 13th in the country, perhaps a bit low, while USC is 21st and I definitely think that’s too high.

While I may believe the Trojans to be overrated, I’m not about to fade them in this scenario. I expect a tight and relatively low-scoring game. Five of the previous USC-UCLA meetings have stayed Under the total, the exception being the last one. That game was played last weekend and despite losing, USC shot very well from three-point range (42.1%). The fact they could only score 68 points on the Bruins with that kind of three-point shooting is a little ominous. I don’t expect USC to shoot that well from three again here.

UCLA has gone Over in four straight, but they have not allowed more than 68 points in any of the last nine games. The Under is 10-2 their L12 games vs. a team with a win percentage above .600. The Under is also 6-2 the last eight times they’ve been off an ATS win. USC is 5-0 Under its last five neutral site games. In terms of tempo, neither side plays particularly fast. 10* Under USC/UCLA

10* Orlando (7:10 ET): Minnesota couldn’t possibly be any hotter than they are right now, having won and covered six straight. The last five wins have all been by double digits, three of them by 30 or more points! But this has caused the market to take notice and tonight the T’wolves are lofty road favorites, a position they are not too familiar with being in. Yes, they did recently destroy the Thunder in OKC as a similar sized road favorite (compared to tonight). But I think the T’wolves are due for an off-night here. 

Orlando just pulled an upset Weds night, going to New Orleans and defeating the Pelicans 108-102 as 8.5-point road dogs. It was the Magic’s fourth win in the last seven games, a solid stretch for them. They still have the worst SU record in the NBA (17-50) entering tonight, but they played the Suns (who have the best record in the NBA) tough the other night and have just one loss by more than eight points since returning from the All-Star Break. They are 8-2 ATS L10 games with a total of 230 or higher. 

Minnesota has simply been shooting the lights out of late and I don’t think they can continue to do so. They are basically averaging 130 points on better than 50% shooting during the six-game win streak and that cannot be maintained. Defensively, the T’wolves struggle on the road, giving up 116.8 PPG. That’s why they have a sub-.500 record away from home. A team with a losing road record should not be favored by this many points, no matter how well they’ve been playing. Take the points. 10* Orlando

9* Toledo (5:00 ET): The “chalk walked” into the MAC semifinals with the top four seeds all advancing. The first semi pits top seed Toledo against 4-seed Akron. Both of these teams won close yesterday afternoon. Toledo avoided what would have been a massive upset (they were -17 against Central Michigan) as RayJ Dennis made a layup with 10 seconds left to give the Rockets a 72-71 win. Akron won 70-68 over Buffalo as Greg Tribble made two free throws with 3.2 seconds left. 

Toledo dominated the MAC during the regular season, going 17-3 straight up and 16-4 against the spread. So it’s a bit surprising that they are such a short favorite here. The Rockets faced Akron just one time in the regular season and won that game 84-76 as a 7.5-point favorite.They shot 59% from the floor while the Zips did not help themselves by missing 10 free throws and shooting only 28% from three-point range. But note Toledo is 12-1 ATS this season vs. teams that have a winning record. 

Akron comes into this game on a six-game win streak (as does Toledo!) but the last two wins have been by a total of three points. For whatever reason, Central Michigan always seems to play Toledo tough. But the Rockets’ four previous wins had all come by double digits. Toledo is simply the better team here and KenPom has them as an 8.5-point favorite. There’s a major edge at the offensive end where the Rockets rank 35th in the country in efficiency while the Zips are 139th. Assuming UT can push the tempo, Akron won’t be able to keep up. Lay the points. 9* Toledo

8* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): The first thing to consider here is that Cincy MUST win the Conference Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament while Houston is obviously a NCAA Tournament team that will get a pretty high seed. The Bearcats did play yesterday, and it certainly wasn’t as easy as the final 74-63 score showed against East Carolina. But after scoring the final 12 points of that game, I think they are going to surprise here and stay within the double digit number. 

Houston did not have a good end to the regular season as they got clobbered by Memphis, 75-61, a game where they were actually favored by 2.5 points. The Cougars turned the ball over a season-high 20 times in that game and trailed by as many as 23 points in the first half. Now that was just their fifth loss of the season and Memphis is the ONLY team to beat them by more than two points! But I can see a combination of the layoff and overconfidence leading to a poor start here for the favorite. Remember that due to injuries, Houston has a VERY short rotation (sometimes goes only six deep). 

Cincinnati did lose the two regular season meetings with Houston by a combined 40 points. But again, the perception that creates has led to some value for this tournament matchup. I certainly don’t think the Bearcats can play any worse than they did in either of the two regular season meetings. They made a season-high 10 three-pointers yesterday, a positive sign, and I think they will play “loose and free” here. Take the points. 8* Cincinnati

8* Over UC Riverside/Hawaii (11:30 ET): This is the #3 vs. #6 (seed) matchup in the Big West quarterfinals. Hawaii, despite being seeded higher, is a slight underdog here in Henderson, NV. The Warriors won five of seven to end the regular season, capping the run with a dominant 84-62 win over Cal State Northridge in the finale. Given the number of points they scored there, combined with UC Riverside’s recent trend, this O/U line looks far too low. I’m going Over.

So UC Riverside has seen the Over hit in each of its last seven games. The last one had a total of 142 (they lost 73-72 to Long Beach State). Given that final score, I’m truly amazed at how LOW this total is as none of Riverside’s last seven games have seen fewer than 136 total points scored. Now, the Highlanders have been scoring WELL above their season average recently. But even for the year, their games average 130.2 points. 

The one time these teams played in the regular season, the game did stay Under. It was a 64-59 Riverside victory as three-point home favorites. Note that the total for that game was higher than it is here. Also, in the first meeting, the teams combined to go 12 of 35 from three-point range. I expect better shooting here. UC Riverside has shot 54% overall from the field in its last five games and Hawaii is shooting 36% from three-point range for the season. 8* Over UC Riverside/Hawaii

10* Philadelphia (7:30 ET): Does Brooklyn, currently in eighth place in the Eastern Conference, probably “need” this game more than Philadelphia (who is third)? Yeah. But don’t discount the motivations of James Harden tonight as he faces his former team. The 76ers are 5-0 in games with Harden in the lineup since the blockbuster trade with the Nets. They have averaged slightly more than 125 points in those five wins, four of which have come by at least 16 points. The Sixers are the better team here and I’ll lay the points. 

Harden sat out Philly’s 99-82 loss to Miami on Friday. But he returned to the lineup Monday as the team beat Chicago 121-106. It was actually Joel Embiid leading the way in that one, with 43 points. In the 128 minutes that Harden and Embiid have shared the court together so far, the Sixers have outscored opponents by 76 points, an incredible number! Also, the team’s defense has gotten much better, posting a defensive efficiency rating that would be better than the league-leading Celtics (when Harden and Embiid are together).

The Nets are still more of a work in progress as Kyrie Irving’s “on again, off again,” status has been a problem (due to him not being vaccinated). I don’t think the team can count on him going for 50 points again like he did the other night vs. Charlotte (who is a bad defensive team). Durant continues to work his way back from injury. He and Irving simply haven’t played together enough over the L2 years and to me this remains an overrated side. The Nets are 2-11 ATS off a double digit win. 10* Philadelphia

10* Wichita State (3:00 ET): Tulsa has been a bit of an unlucky team this season, but I don't think that's going to change here in the conference tournament. The Golden Hurricane did pull out a one-point victory in their regular season finale, beating UCF 73-72, but you’d have to go all the way back to mid-December to find the last time this team posted B2B wins. They finished second from the bottom in the American this year, ahead of only South Florida, and were swept by their first round opponent (Wichita State), losing both games by 10 points. 

Wichita State comes into this tournament off B2B wins. One of them was against Tulsa, 72-62, as a three-point road favorite. Then the Shockers closed the regular season by beating East Carolina 70-62. It was not a great season in Wichita, but the team still sits inside the Top 50 in defensive efficiency. They’ve won and covered five of the last six meetings with Tulsa and in the regular season sweep this year, held them to an average of just 55 PPG. 

Remember that Wichita State won the regular season AAC title last season. It’s been a tough fall this year, but they are clearly better than Tulsa and the rest of the bottom-feeders in this league. This line just looks way too short, given Tulsa has just two wins away from home all season. The only “true” road win was against USF while the other was a neutral site game vs. Rhode Island back in November. The Golden Hurricane are also 0-6 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a home loss. 10* Wichita State.

9* Over Watford/Wolverhampton (2:30 ET): These two slumping Premier League sides are both desperate for three points coming into Thursday. Wolverhampton, though still in the top half of the table, has dropped three straight with the most recent loss being 2-0 at the hands of Crystal Palace. That was after being blanked 1-0 by West Ham and a gut-wrenching 2-1 loss to Arsenal. Thankfully for the Wolves, it’s a drop in class here as they face relegation-threatened Watford, who sits 19th in the table and has won just one time since late November! 

Yet Watford is still somehow just three points adrift of safety, so a win here would do the Hornets wonders. I faded them their last time out, which ended up being a 3-2 loss to Arsenal. That was Watford’s first time putting two goals on the board since a 4-2 loss to Leicester City on November 28th! But looking at this fixture, the Wolves’ defense is not as impenetrable as it once was and they are due to start conceding more. The gap between the number of actual goals allowed by the Wolves (23) and their xGA (37.29) is by far the largest in all of the Premier League. 

I do think the Wolves are due to get on the scoresheet themselves though. They’ve shockingly failed to score a goal in three of their last four fixtures here at Molineux, a run I just can’t see continuing. Not with Watford having conceded the third most goals in the entire EPL. With me projecting both sides to score on Thursday, taking the Over here seems to be a “no brainer.” 9* Over Watford/Wolverhampton

8* Providence (12:00 ET): Surprise! Me taking the Friars may come as a shock to those who have followed my plays over the course of the season, but the situation is really in their favor in this Big East Quarterfinal matchup. Rested, they are taking on Butler, who went to overtime to upset Xavier yesterday. Let’s not forget Butler had lost five in a row going into yesterday. Providence has not lost to any Big East team besides Villanova going back to January 4th. I’m laying the points in this one. 

Now it’s been established that Providence has been arguably THE “luckiest” team in America this season. Their record in close games is stunning and Butler knows this VERY well as the Friars beat them by seven and one in the two regular season meetings, the latter going to OT after Providence rallied from 19 down in the 2H. But that’s water under the bridge now and we’ve got a superior team, rested, against someone coming off an OT game. Note Butler was down four in the last 30 seconds of regulation yesterday, so it was their “turn” to be lucky.

Providence hasn’t played since losing (by two) at Villanova on March 1st. This means they should be fully healthy as HC Ed Cooley expects Al Durham to return after missing a month, including the second game vs. Butler. Durham is a double digit scorer, so that’s a key returnee. Butler just isn’t that good (14-18 SU) and not capable of playing any better than they did yesterday. Two players carried the scoring load, and I just can’t see Harris and Lukosius combining for 56 again. 8* Providence

9* Under Georgetown/Seton Hall (9:30 ET): What an absolutely atrocious season it has been for Patrick Ewing and Georgetown. The Hoyas shockingly won the Big East Tournament last year, but haven’t won a conference game since as they finished the regular season 0-19 SU vs. the rest of the BE! Needless to say, there is NOT going to be a repeat of LY’s Cinderella run. I fully expect that the Hoyas’ season will end today, but of course they are big underdogs. I think the better play is on the total. 

Seton Hall is a team that I have some faith in. The Pirates might only be the 6-seed in this tournament, but my power ratings actually call them a Top 25 team in the country! I would favor them, on a neutral court, over regular season champ Providence. Unfortunately for SH, one of the two BE teams I think is better (UConn) awaits them in the next round. I also don’t trust the Pirates laying double digits here, particularly after they failed to cover against G’town last week (won by only five). 

That meeting last week just barely stayed Under the number (145) as it was a 73-68 final. The first meeting also stayed Under and was even lower-scoring (70-63). At a neutral site (Madison Square Garden), I don’t think we’ll be seeing a higher scoring game as the Pirates are 15-4 Under their L19 games vs. teams that have losing records. Only one of their last 11 games overall would have gone Over this total. Georgetown is shooting just 38.5% away from home this year, Seton Hall isn’t much better. 9* Under Georgetown/Seton Hall

10* Chicago (7:10 ET): The Bulls have experienced a real “downturn” of late, losing and failing to cover each of the last five games. But most of those losses have come against some of the top teams in the NBA, like Memphis, Miami, Milwaukee and Philadelphia. The Bulls have had some real difficulty beating the top teams in the league, but one team they have not had trouble beating resides at the bottom, that being tonight’s opponent, the Pistons. The Bulls are 10-0 SU/ATS the past 10 meetings including 3-0 this season. 

Wouldn’t you know though that Detroit comes into Wednesday riding an 8-0 ATS win streak. They are 6-2 SU in those eight games as well. It’s easily the best stretch of basketball that the Pistons have played all season. Two nights ago, here at home, they defeated Atlanta in overtime by a score of 113-110. It was their third straight SU win, the first time they’ve managed a win streak of this length since March of 2019. So something is going to have to give here. It’s a matter of which trend(s) do you believe in? Recently, the Pistons have clearly been better than the Bulls. But, long-term, the Bulls have certainly had the Pistons’ number. 

I’m looking for the Bulls’ mastery of this rivalry to continue. They might be 0-9 SU this year against Miami, Philadelphia and Milwaukee - the three teams ahead of them in the East - but their record against the rest of the conference is 24-8 SU. The three wins over the Pistons have been by an average of 22.3 PPG. Nikola Vucevic (questionable) could return tonight. Regardless, the Bulls aren’t as bad as they’ve looked recently nor are the Pistons as good as they’ve looked recently. 10* Chicago

10* West Virginia (7:00 ET): Because Oklahoma State is ineligible for the postseason, this is the only first round game in the Big 12 Tournament and the winner gets the dubious “honor” of having to face Kansas tomorrow in the quarterfinals. So it’s basically “one last chance to shine” for either Kansas State or West Virginia, the two bottom teams in the conference standings. I’m on WVU here as they showed signs of “life” by winning the regular season finale, 70-64 over TCU. Kansas State, meanwhile, has lost five in a row. 

Now the Mountaineers had dropped seven in a row before beating TCU in Morgantown. But some of those losses were close, including one by just a single point to Texas. This team did start the season by winning 13 of its first 15 games. They have lost 14 of 16 with two separate seven-game skids, however, this is the one matchup they can win in this Tournament. Kansas State has been giving up a ton of points recently, more than their season average each of the last six times out. 

Making matters tougher for K-State is that one of their leading scorers, Markquis Nowell, has been battling a hamstring injury and is listed as questionable. Nowell led the team with 21 points when they beat WVU in Manhattan on Valentine’s Day. That’s the last time the Wildcats won a game. Note WVU took the first meeting in Morgantown. Kansas State didn’t turn the ball over too many times in the two regular season matchups, but Bob Huggins’ press could be the difference-maker here. 10* West Virginia

8* Florida State (12:00 ET): Today is the second round of the ACC Tournament. This is the only one of the four matchups where neither of the participants played yesterday. Florida State ended its regular season on a real roll, impressively beating Virginia, Notre Dame and NC State. Impressive is not a word that could be used to describe the way Syracuse finished its regular season as the Orange have lost four in a row straight up and failed to cover five in a row. I expect recent form to hold here and am taking FSU. 

This tournament is being played in Brooklyn. While that’s within the state boundary for Syracuse, they have just four wins all season outside of the Carrier Dome. This team is shockingly bad at the defensive end, having allowed over 75 PPG for the season. Among ACC teams, only NC State had a worse defensive efficiency rating and the Wolfpack finished in last place and are already out of the Tourney. Bottom line is that I have zero belief that the ‘Cuse can win a game outside of its own gym. 

FSU actually won at the Carrier Dome back in January 76-71 as a 2.5-point dog. They did so by shooting almost 55% overall and 60% from three-point range. That was after giving the Orange one of their few road wins this season, back in December. I just think that the ‘Noles come into the rubber match in better form. Syracuse blew an 18-point lead and lost at home to Miami on Saturday, which will be tough to get over. Both teams have thin benches, but the Orange are thinner at the moment. 8* Florida State

10* Indiana (7:10 ET): Already without Caris LeVert and Rajon Rondo, Cleveland just lost All-Star Center Jarrett Allen to injury in Sunday’s 104-96 win over Toronto. One of the surprise teams in the league this year, the Cavs have started to slip, dropping six of their last eight and are now sixth in the Eastern Conference standings. There’s a chance Rondo could return Tuesday, but I certainly don’t like the idea of the Cavs laying points on the road right now, even facing a team like Indiana, who is coming off a rough road trip. 

While the Pacers essentially “waved the white flag” on their 2021-22 season at the trade deadline (including sending LeVert to Cleveland), they are better than their record. No team has been more snakebit in close games as Indiana’s SU record is just 2-11 in games decided by three points or less. But even after losing 11 of their last 14 overall, there’s some hope here with the starting backcourt of Brogdon and Haliburton playing together. Brogdon had 27 in Sunday’s loss to Washington while Haliburton has scored 20+ in six of the ten games since coming over from Sacramento. 

This will be the Pacers’ first time playing at home since blowing out Boston here on Feb 27th. Considering who they faced (Orlando twice, Detroit and Washington), the just completed road trip should have been better than 1-3 SU, but the bottom line is the Pacers are a far better team at home (where they actually own a positive point differential). Cleveland is basically a .500 team on the road (17-16 SU) and now playing short-handed. Take the points. 10* Indiana

10* Wagner (7:00 ET): These were the top two teams in the NEC all year. In fact, Wagner didn’t even lose a conference game until February, after a 13-0 start. But they ended up losing three of the final five conference games and that resulted in a drop into second place by season’s end. The regular season title was actually decided on the final day when the Seahawks lost to Bryant, 78-70, after blowing a six-point halftime lead. That was also Wagner’s lone non-OT conference loss of the season! 

As a top-two seed, Wagner got a double-bye into the tournament semis and they promptly blew out Long Island 82-62 as a 5.5-point favorite. Now that game was at home and here they’ll have to play on the road by virtue of Bryant being the top seed. But Bryant certainly struggled here at home in their semifinal, only beating Mount St. Mary’s 70-69 as a 7.5-point favorite. That game was decided on a free throw with no time remaining. Judging by the respective shooting percentages, you would expect Bryant would have lost that game. But they had a huge edge (+19) in FT attempts compared to MSM. 

Wagner did win the season’s first meeting, 84-81, so there’s that. To me, they have been the better team this season. Bryant has been pretty lucky (#5 luck rating over at KenPom) and my power ratings say that even with the home court edge, they should be a dog here. Wagner has a much higher defensive efficiency rating and should be able to avenge its only regulation conference loss of the season here. They have won 26 of their last 31 NEC games. Take the points. 10* Wagner

8* Over Delaware/UNC Wilmington (7:00 ET): Both teams involved in the CAA Tourney Final have gone Under in four straight games. But I believe we’re getting some tremendous value here with this number, considering the last time Delaware and UNC Wilmington met, the O/U line closed at 143.5. Now, that matchup did stay Under, but that was because UNC Wilmington only managed to shoot 40% overall and 2 of 15 from three-point range (still won 69-62). It should be noted that the season’s first meeting, a 70-68 UNCW victory, did go Over the total. So will this third installment. 

It is a surprise that Delaware has gotten thus far. The Blue Hens were the 5-seed entering this tournament and last night pulled an upset over the top seed, Towson, winning 69-56 as a 4.5-point underdog. The Blue Hens really benefited from poor Towson shooting as the Tigers shot just 31% overall and were a hideous 4 of 23 from three-point range. While Delaware held both tournament opponents to just 56 points, I don’t think they can count on UNCW shooting as poorly as Towson did last night. Also, Delaware gives up 70.3 PPG on the year. 

I’ve gone through UNC Wilmington’s season before; they have been an extremely fortunate team that always seems to win close. Last night was no different as the second seeded Seahawks outlasted Charleston 60-57. I made the mistake of betting against them. Not going to get in their way again. But like Delaware, UNCW probably can’t count on the same defensive numbers they turned in last night as they held Charleston to a 38.3 FG% with only four made three-pointers and seven made free throws. I think this number is too low. 8* Over Delaware/UNC Wilmington

7* Liverpool (3:00 ET): Liverpool has displayed remarkable form, having not tasted defeat at all in 2022. Saturday’s 1-0 win over West Ham made it 12 straight wins across four different competitions, as the Reds have already bagged the EFL Cup and progressed to the quarterfinals of the FA Cup. The win over West Ham kept them within six points of the top of the Premier League table. But It has been their play here in the Champions League that has been the most impressive. Tuesday sees them looking to make it eight straight wins to open their UCL campaign. No English side has ever done that before. 

In the first leg of this Round of 16 tie, the Reds went to San Siro and beat Inter Milan 2-0. Both Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah found the back of the net, scoring in the 75th and 83rd minute respectively. Having already beaten their Serie A opponents on the road, Liverpool is now heavily favored to progress to the quarterfinals of this event. The second leg is of course at Anfield (where they have not lost with Virgil van Dijk in the lineup). 

Liverpool doesn’t HAVE to win here to advance (only needs a draw or one-goal loss) but I think that they will win. Being at home is significant, not just because of their own prowess at Anfield, but also because Inter simply hasn’t been that good on the road of late. They’ve tallied just one goal in their last four away matches. Only one team in the history of the Champions League has ever come back from a two-goal deficit in the first leg at home to advance. Inter hasn’t even made the last eight in the UCL since 2010-11. 7* Liverpool

10* Oral Roberts (9:30 ET): The “chalk has walked” in the bottom half of the Summit League bracket as 3-seed Oral Roberts will be meeting 2-seed North Dakota State in the second semifinal. Honestly, whoever wins this will be a huge underdog in the Final, presuming the opponent is South Dakota State, who hasn’t been beaten in conference play all year. But I’m seeing value in this one as I believe Oral Roberts to be the better team. Take the points. 

This is a double revenge spot for ORU, who lost the regular season meetings 72-71 and 77-59. In those two losses, the Eagles shot below 25% from three-point range. That’s very uncharacteristic for them. They are shooting 38.1% from behind the arc for the season and average 83.7 PPG, fourth most in the country. Last night in the quarterfinals, they put up 80 against Western Illinois, a game where they never trailed. 

North Dakota State has been a pretty lucky team this season, winning a lot of close games. It wasn’t close yesterday as the Bison rolled to an 82-62 victory over Denver, but even so they were down at halftime. I think that Oral Roberts is due for some positive regression at the defensive end and they’ve now covered seven straight games on a neutral court. I simply happen to think that the Eagles are the better team here and cannot see them losing a third straight time to NDSU. 10* Oral Roberts

8* Charleston (8:30 ET): The 6-seed is favored over the 2-seed in the CAA Tournament, which should tell you something right off the bat. UNC Wilmington (the 2-seed) has been one of the luckiest teams in America this season, going 12-3 SU in games decided by six or less or in overtime. They are 4-0 in OT games. There have been nine instances this season where the Seahawks trailed in a game by double digits, but came back to win. They’ve trailed in 14 of their 22 wins this season, including yesterday’s quarterfinal victory over Elon. 

Now, given UNCW ended up winning 75-58, you may not realize they were down at halftime on Sunday. But Elon could muster only 22 points in the 2H and their leading scorer was held to four points on 2 of 11 shooting. Tonight’s opponent has had no such issues scoring as Charleston comes in hot, having shot better than 51% in each of its last six games. The Cougars put up 92 last night in their quarterfinal win over Hofstra, who was the 3-seed. 

I made the mistake of playing the Under in that Charleston-Hofstra game and learned my lesson about what the Cougars can do. They are second in the country in tempo and averaging 78.9 PPG. This is a double revenge spot for them as they lost both regular season meetings to UNC Wilmington. But the set up here is a bit different as both regular season meetings saw Charleston come in off a seven-day break. Maybe that was too much rest? Charleston led by 22 at the half last night. This is a hot team and UNCW is a team due to lose. 8* Charleston

10* Portland (8:10 ET): Let’s try this again as we should have had a win Saturday with the Blazers getting a similar number of points, but they fell apart late and ended up either not covering or pushing, depending on when you bet them. Portland was severely short-handed for the contest, but was leading at the half and only down one with 8:41 left. To not cover, as a double-digit underdog, was a really bad break. 

Now Minnesota has been red hot, winning and covering four straight. They’ve averaged 132.3 PPG during that win streak, which has seen them shoot 52.8% or better in every game. But they are due to cool off, especially after shooting a season-best 56.5% in the last game. That came on the second night of a back to back, after they had made 22 of 47 three-pointers and turned in their highest scoring half of the season. There’s just no way those numbers are sustainable. 

So with the T’wolves likely to cool off, look for Portland to take advantage and stay within the number this time. Before Saturday, the Blazers had lost three in a row by 30+ points, so as disappointing as that last result was, it marked an improvement. As beat up as they are, I just can’t see a fifth straight double digit loss here. The first two meetings vs. Minnesota this year were decided by a total of seven points. 10* Portland

9* Under Charleston/Hofstra (8:30 ET): Ok, I don’t think for a second that this game will be as high-scoring as the regular season finale, when Hofstra beat Charleston 89-84. Hofstra is very good at forcing turnovers, but even by their standard, last Monday was preposterous. They forced Charleston into 28 TO’s, a season-high, and obviously feasted off those. Assuming the Cougars cut down on the number of turnovers, that should limit fast-break opportunities for the Pride and I like this game to stay Under a (very) high total. 

Over their last five games, Charleston has shot a somewhat insane 54.1% from the field. That can’t continue. For the year, the Cougs are shooting just 43.8%. Because of their tempo, this team is always going to score a decent amount of points. But what we’ve seen from them lately is simply not sustainable. Charleston also made 52% of its three-point attempts in the last game. That won’t be repeated either as they are shooting just 33.7% from behind the arc for the season. 

Hofstra is also a high-scoring team, but this total is high even by their standard. Seeing a total open at 160 or higher in today’s day and age is quite rare. I know that the last game closed at 160, but that was a season-high for both teams. With a cleaner game by Charleston (who won’t shoot as well) and it being at a neutral court, this one promises to stay Under. The first meeting of the season, also won by Hofstra, was a 76-73 final. Look for something along those lines tonight. 9* Under Charleston/Hofstra

10* Nebraska (2:00 ET): Gonna try again to fade Wisconsin, who remains one of the more overrated (and certainly LUCKIEST) teams in the country. The Badgers come into this regular season finale ranked #10 in the country, however both KenPom (#26) and my own personal power ratings (#27) look at them a lot less favorably. The key to the overachieving in Madison has been a preposterous record in close games; the Badgers are 15-1 SU when the final margin is six points or less. Four of their last five wins have been by five points or less, the last three coming by a total of nine points. 

A win here would give the Badgers the Big 10 regular season title. (They can also clinch if Illinois loses later today). What’s crazy about Wisconsin being the probable #1 seed in the conference tournament is that my power rankings consider them to be just the SIXTH best team in the Big 10! At the bottom of the league is Nebraska, but the Cornhuskers aren’t going down without a fight. The last two games have seen them pull off an upset, beating Penn State by 23 and then Ohio State by eight. The ‘Huskers were DD dogs in both games. 

Back on January 27th, Nebraska was able to cover the spread (at home) vs. Wisconsin, losing by only eight as nine-point dogs. They are also 3-0 ATS this season as a road underdog of 12.5 to 15 points. Wisconsin is just 1-3 ATS this season when laying 12.5 or more at the betting window, home or road. Just take the points here as when Wisconsin is involved, it’s almost always a close contest. 10* Nebraska

9* Celta Vigo (12:30 ET): This is a crucial fixture for Celta, who has obviously fallen off the pace of the top seven in La Liga. But now they’re stuck firmly in the middle of the table as both Valencia and Osasuna won Saturday. So did Espanyol, who now is level with the Sky Blues for 11th place. It’s a three-match winless run for Celta, who were beaten 2-0 by Atletico Madrid last week. Prior to that though, they’d actually gone five in a row without a defeat (though three of those results were draws). 

Here Celta will be facing Mallorca, who is closer to the bottom of the table, down in 16th and only four points clear of safety. I like the spot for the hosts as they are getting Mallorca on a short week. It was only Wednesday that Mallorca was last on the pitch, losing 2-0 to Real Sociedad. That was the Pirates’ third consecutive defeat and I should point out that they’ve picked up only eight points on their travels this entire season.

Considering that Mallorca has not remained in La Liga for B2B seasons since 2013, their chances of survival are very much questionable. After this, they have a tough run of fixtures. But Celta won’t take it easy here as they are looking for their first win over the Pirates since 2006. It was a goalless draw in the reverse fixture played earlier this season. But I don’t think anyone would deny Celta is the superior side in this matchup and I expect that quality to show on the pitch Sunday. Only four sides in all of La Liga have conceded fewer goals this season. 9* Celta Vigo