8* Cleveland (7:05 ET): The Cavaliers were blown out Sunday night, losing here at home to Dallas 131-111. I think they'll fare better tonight against Boston. The Cavs were 2-0 SU at home before that loss to the Mavs. They have shot demonstrably better here at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse (formerly Quicken Loans Arena), making 47.2% of their field goal attempts while averaging 112.7 points per game. They've scored at least 110 in every home game thus far. Anything close to a similar effort tonight should result in an easy cover. Take the points.

Boston moved on from Kyrie Irving in the offseason, but still expects to be a top contender in the Eastern Conference. They enter this game at 4-1 SU, their only loss coming in the season opener to Philadelphia, which was a road game. However, the last two wins have NOT been pretty w/ the Celtics having to rally from a 19-pt deficit against Milwaukee and then needing a last second shot to beat the Knicks 104-102. The Celtics haven't shot very well so far as their FG% is 41.7, which is 27th overall. Kemba Walker, Irving's replacement, has really carried the team w/ three straight games of 32+ pts. 

The Cavs are definitely rebuilding under 1st year HC John Beilein. But both Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson are both playing well. Love had 29 points and eight rebounds Sunday while Thompson posted his 5th double-double of the season. This team won't be the pushover it was last season, it's first after losing LeBron James for a second time. The Celtics might be 4-1, but they've hardly been dominant in getting to that record, so taking the points here seems smart. 8* Cleveland 

8* Appalachian State (7:00 ET): There's an obvious comment to be made here w/ Michigan opening its season against Appalachian State. It was a little more than 12 years ago, over at "The Big House," that the Wolverines' football team laid a historic egg against ASU (then a FCS program) in what still ranks as one of the greatest upsets in the history of that particular sport. Of course, that also happened to be Lloyd Carr's final season in Ann Arbor. It's a new era of Michigan hoops w/ Juwan Howard taking over for John Beilein, who went to the NBA to the coach Cleveland. I don't see Howard losing his HC debut, but the Maize and Blue aren't as good as they've been in past years. Take the points.

Howard was of course part of the famed "Fab Five" that took Michigan - and the entire College Basketball world - by storm in the early 90's. But he has zero head coaching experience and is laying a big number tonight. The Wolverines lost their top three scorers from a year ago and freshman Franz Wagner broke his wrist, which will cause him to miss 4-6 weeks. Michigan played a very sophisticated offense under Beilein. Under Howard, it looks like they'll "play faster." But a recent scrimmage against Saginaw Valley State saw them shoot just 9 of 31 from three-point range and at one point, they went seven minutes w/o making a shot. My guess is Michigan isn't going to be as stout defensively either now that Beilein has moved on. 

Appalachian State went 11-21 SU last season, it's eighth straight losing campaign. So a coaching change was made as Dustin Kerns comes over after a successful run at Presbyterian. Kerns inherits a good deal of returning talent, led by Justin Forrest, who averaged 16.2 PPG last season. He's one of three starters back. The Mountaineers definitely didn't have issues scoring last season as they averaged 79.9 PPG, which was 33rd in the country. The issue was at the other end. But if Michigan struggles to shoot like they did vs. Saginaw Valley State, that issue should be less of a problem. Plus, I expect Kerns to improve the team's overall defense. 8* Appalachian State

10* NY Giants (8:15 ET): This is the second meeting of the year between these long-time NFC East rivals. I made the mistake of playing the G-Men in the first, which they lost 35-17 as 7-point underdogs. That result seems to have set the tone for the respective seasons as Dallas is 5-3 (coming off a bye) while the Giants are 2-6 SU (and have lost four in a row). The Week 1 win by the Cowboys was also their fifth straight win and cover over the Giants. But look at this line for Monday night's rematch. The Giants are now basically getting the same number of points at home that they were on the road. There's some real value on the home dog here. Take the points. 

While still struggling, the Giants do look a lot different from when they faced the Cowboys in Week 1. The most obvious difference is at QB w/ Daniel Jones now starting instead of Eli Manning. Jones first appeared in Week 3 vs. Tampa Bay where he led a dramatic come from behind win. He then won his first career start, beating the Redskins 24-3. But since then, it's been nothing but losses as the Giants are 0-4. Slow starts have doomed the Giants during this stretch, but note that two of the four losses have been by six points or less. The other two were to the Vikings and Patriots, two of the best teams in the league. Jones will also finally have a full compliment of skill position players this week as RB Saquon Barkley and WR Sterling Shepard are both set to return. Keep in mind that both TE Evan Engram and WR Golden Tate have missed time as well, but they'll be on the field here as well. 

On the defensive side of the ball, there's also a fresh new face for the Giants. It's Leonard Williams, who was acquired this week in a trade w/ the Jets. The Giants' defense has been better over the L3 games and I expect a much better showing than the disastrous effort against the Cowboys in Week 1. Despite them destroying the Eagles two weeks ago, I remain highly skeptical of the Cowboys. They are 1-2 on the road w/ the lone win coming against Washington. They've already lost once in this stadium this year, falling as a 7-pt road favorite to the previously winless Jets. Despite many trends pointing Dallas' way in this game, I'm going the other way as this is a great sell high (Dallas) / buy low (Giants) spot with the two teams. 10* NY Giants

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): The T'wolves won't have Karl-Anthony Towns tonight (suspended), but they didn't have him on Saturday either and still managed to win 131-109. Granted, that was against the sorry Wizards. But here the oddsmakers are giving them some help in the form of a generous number at home. The T'Wolves' 4-1 start is made more impressive when you consider they've only gotten to play one home game. That lone home date saw them defeat a good Miami team 116-109. That is still Miami's only loss this season. Take the points here. 

Milwaukee will show up in the Twin Cities off B2B impressive performances. After blowing out Orlando 123-91 on Friday, the Bucks led by as many as 26 against Toronto Saturday and won 115-105. Thanks to a low-scoring 4Q, I was able to cash an Under bet on that Saturday matchup. The Bucks are now 4-2 SU/ATS on the year and could easily be 6-0 SU as they blew DD leads in both losses. That being said, this is the most points they've been asked to lay away from home thus far and it comes against a team that's playing pretty well right now. This is kind of a letdown spot for Milwaukee as Saturday was a big revenge game for LY's Eastern Conference Finals. 

Six players finished in double figures for Minnesota on Saturday, led by Andrew Wiggins' 21 pts. That's a good sign as they again play w/o Towns, whose suspension came about for fighting w/ Joel Embiid. Something that makes Minnesota's 4-1 start even more impressive is that they have not fared well from behind the three-point line. Opponents are hitting nearly 40% against them for the year. But I don't think that will continue. They should also shoot better from three-point range tonight than they did against Miami (13 for 45). The T'wolves are a surprising 57-28 SU at home since the start of the 2017-18 season. While they are 2-8 SU/ATS L10 meetings w/ Milwaukee, this is a good value. 8* Minnesota

6* Nashville (7:35 ET): The Predators are certainly not in the best of moods as they set out to embark on a four-game road trip. They've lost two in a row, both at home, and really those are games they should have easily won. Halloween night, it was all trick and no treat as they blew a 4-1 third period lead against Calgary and ended up losing 6-5 in overtime. They gave up the game-tying goal in the final minute of regulation in that one. Then on Saturday, the Preds lost 2-1 to the Rangers, a game where they were -260 on the money line! My view for tonight is that they'll look across the ice, see a weak opponent and "smell blood." Look for a bounce back Monday. 

The Preds may be steaming after suffering B2B losses, but that's nothing compared to what the Red Wings are going through right now. This once proud organization has fallen on hard times. The team has lost 10 of 11 (all but one loss in regulation) and has the worst the goal differential (-24) in the sport. They have the 2nd fewest points (9), only two ahead of division rival Ottawa. As badly as October ended, November has started even worse in the Motor City w/ the Wings being outscored 11-3 in two games. They lost 7-3 at Carolina and then were shutout (4-0) at Florida. Getting last night off was just a momentary reprieve, not enough time to recoup. Following a loss by two or more goals, Detroit is 17-42 SU the L3 seasons including 1-7 to start 2019. 

Despite the B2B losses, Nashville isn't in terrible shape. They have the best YTD goal differential in the Central Division (+12). Adding to their motivation here is the fact that this is a triple revenge spot. Not only did they drop a home game to the Red Wings back on Oct 5 (where they were -255 on the ML!), but they lost both meetings LY as well. Those head to head results just don't make much sense to me as the Preds are pretty obviously the better team here. They get their revenge - and back on track - tonight. 6* Nashville 

10* Under Mavericks/Cavs (7:35 ET): Dallas' last game would not have gone Over w/o OT as it was 103-103 at the end of regulation (O/U line: 217). That was also a brutal loss for anyone that took the Mavs +2 (I did) as they led outright most of the game, only to end up losing by nine. PG Luka Doncic got banged up near the end of the game, which definitely contributed to the team's poor showing in overtime. Doncic is listed as probable for tonight, but it's something worth monitoring. I don't see Dallas continuing to shoot as well on the road regardless as they've made 48.6% of their FG attempts in two games, both wins. Take the Under here. 

Cleveland is 2-0 at home so far, having beaten Indiana and Chicago. Similar to Dallas on the road, I don't see the young Cavaliers being able to maintain their current shooting at home, which is 51.3% from the field, well above what they are shooting on the road (where they are 0-3). The Cavs were very bad defensively a season ago, ranking dead last in efficiency. But they seem to be improved under new HC John Beilein as they've allowed 102 pts or less in three of five games so far and they're up to a much more respectable 15th in defensive efficiency. 

Unfortunately for the Cavs, they are averaging only 103.8 PPG overall, which is near the bottom of the league. Only six teams average a fewer number of points per game. Rookie Darius Garland was 0 for 10 from the field against Indiana on Friday, a game the Cavs lost by only six points. He'll shoot better than that tonight (obviously), but as I said when I played the Under in that game vs. Indiana, early season numbers from Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson are due to decline. Both of these teams shoot the ball around 44% for the year, but the Mavs are way higher on the road while the Cavs are way higher here at home. Those road/home percentages are due to regress back to the mean. 10* Under Mavericks/Cavs

10* Over Browns/Broncos (4:25 ET): We're long ways from the 1987 & '88 AFC Championship Games that these teams faced off in. In 2019, both are struggling to remain relevant, even in a weaker than usual AFC. For Cleveland, this is terribly disappointing as they had high expectations (believe it or not) coming into the season. Those expectations seem foolish in retrospect, but they were there. As for Denver, not a ton was expected in Vic Fangio's 1st year, but I thought they'd improve on LY's 6-10 SU record. At 2-6 right now, that doesn't seem very likely. Brandon Allen will make his first NFL start at QB this week, replacing the injured Joe Flacco. Not like the offense was doing much w/ Flacco in there though, so I would be careful about calling this a downgrade. 

Calling for an Over here might seem like I'm being a contrarian. After all, Denver's last four games have all stayed Under. So have 19 of their last 24 games. Replacing Tim Tebow was easy (Peyton Manning!) for John Elway, but Elway hasn't come close to finding anything close to a successor for Manning. Flacco wasn't the answer and Allen probably won't be either. But an Over would seem to be in the works sooner rather than later as this stretch of low-scoring games can't be sustained. By the way, the Broncos have lost THREE games in the final minute this year, so their record could be a whole lot better right now. Cleveland's defense has allowed 20+ points in all but one game this season. 

I also think this is where the struggling Browns' offense gets on track. Last week they were nearly identical to the Patriots in total yards, running a fewer amount of plays. Three turnovers, all on successive possessions, killed them. That was after blowing a lead at home to Seattle the previous week. While the 2-5 SU record is disappointing in Cleveland right now, the Browns have faced a pretty tough schedule. The rest of the way things get progressively easier as they'll be favored in at least the next four games. Cleveland's offense is gaining 6.2 yards per play this season and RB Nick Chubb has had one 37+ yard rush in four straight games. Denver's defense has played admirably, but that may not last as they are set to face some better offenses (including this one) in what is a lost season. 10* Over Browns/Broncos

8* LA Chargers (4:25 ET): I was a big "buyer" on the Packers coming into the season, their 1st under new HC Matt LaFleur. The fact that a team w/ Aaron Rodgers could finish below .500 in B2B seasons is a real "black mark" for LaFleur's predecessor Mike McCarthy, even though one Rodgers was injured for a good chunk of one of those years. This year's obvious improvement aside, the Packers have clearly overachieved in getting to 7-1. They've won four games by seven points or less (lost only one) and are actually being outgained on both a per game and per play basis. I'll fade GB this week as they are the definition of a "public side" here. Take the points.

The Chargers finished 12-4 SU for HC Anthony Lynn last year and were favored to make the playoffs again. But they've reverted back to their "old ways" in 2019, losing a lot of close games and falling prey to injuries. All five Chargers' losses this year have been by seven points or less. But, finally, something went their way last week as they held on to beat Chicago 17-16, thanks to a missed FG attempt on the final play. LA was actually dominated statistically in the contest, getting outgained 388-231 and finishing w/ 15 fewer first downs than the Bears. But given how the first seven games had gone, the Lightning Bolts will take a win anyway they can get it. 

Something worth noting here is the Chargers had not been an underdog in any game this season until the L2 weeks. They pushed as a three-point dog vs. Tennessee and then had the outright win LW in Chicago. This team plays good defense, giving up only 19.6 PPG. Green Bay caught a huge break LW as they got to face Kansas City w/o Patrick Mahomes. This is the first time all season that the Pack have had to play two straight road games. The Chargers have actually lost three in a row at home, a streak we see likely coming to an end here even though they don't have much of a homefield advantage. Despite a 3-5 SU overall record, the Chargers have outgained their opponents and have scored the same number of points as they've allowed. This number is definitely on the "wrong side" of 3. 8* LA Chargers

10* Tampa Bay (4:05 ET): Sometimes it can be a "thin line" between being 2-5 and 6-2 in this league. Take these teams, for example. The 2-5 Bucs seem to specialize in "throwing games away" whether it be turning the ball over SEVEN times (like they did in London vs Carolina) or blowing 18-point leads (like they did vs the Giants). Last week was another close loss, 27-24 in Tennessee. As for 6-2 Seattle, they have five wins by seven points or less, including four by four or less. They have outscored opponents by only 12 points all year and the schedule is about to get a whole lot tougher. Believe it or not, the Seahawks are 0-4 ATS as home favorites this year. Take the points. 

Last week was microcosm of the season for these two teams. Tampa Bay outgained Tennessee 389-246, only to commit four more turnovers and lose. There was also an apparent fumble return for TD negated by an inadvertent whistle that would have won the game for the Bucs. It was Tampa's third loss this season by seven points or less. While that was going on, Seattle held on for a 27-20 win at Atlanta. While the Seahawks did lead 24-0 at halftime, they were eventually outgained 510-322, only to benefit from a +3 turnover margin. Such has been the respective 2019's for these two teams.

But this is where Tampa Bay's luck changes. Maybe it will be just temporarily, but they are definitely "due." The Bucs have outgained their opponents both on a per play and per game basis. They've only been outscored by 16 pts all year. Seattle's defense is giving up 6.4 yards play, which is more than what the Bucs allow. The Bucs' defense is actually #1 in the league against the run! Meanwhile, The Legion of Boom is long gone in Seattle and last week the Seahawks gave up 400+ yards passing to Atlanta (w/ Matt Schaub). Tampa Bay's offense has big play capability w/ two excellent receivers. Seattle's offensive line is in flux now w/ a new starting center. In each case here, the team's WL record is a little bit misleading. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Over Redskins/Bills (1:00 ET): Buffalo's defense, which held Tom Brady and New England to just 16 pts and 224 total yards, has taken a bit of a hit the past two weeks. First it was winless Miami hanging 21 points on them in a surprisingly close game. Last week, the bubble finally burst as the Eagles came in and ran wild, for 218 yds over land, en route to winning 31-13. Previous to those last two efforts, the Bills had not allowed more than 17 points to any opponent and all five games stayed Under. While this week's opponent (Washington) is not a particularly strong outfit, the last 2 weeks have at least shown us the Bills' defense is far from invincible. Take the Over here. 

Washington started the year w/ three straight Overs, but the Under has since gone 5-0. The biggest problem is obviously an offense which is averaging 12.4 PPG, third fewest in the league right now. Those L5 games have truly been dismal efforts when the Redskins have the football as they've scored a grand total of 36, almost half of those coming in the team's lone win, which was over Miami. Since that win, the offense has not scored a single TD. QB Case Keenum is injured, so now rookie Dwayne Haskins will make his first career start. While Haskins has looked far from great in limited appearances, he does represent somewhat of a "Wild Card" element to this week's game. 

Something I do fully anticipate in this game is the Redskins' defense regressing. After giving up 30+ pts in four of the first five games, they've allowed less than 15 PPG the L3 and just three TD's. That sort of sounds impressive, especially when you consider they've faced both the 49ers and Vikings. But that 49ers' game was decimated by rain and the Vikings, despite scoring only 19 points, gained 434 yards on 6.5 per play. There were a total of five 10+ play drives that ended in FG's in that Vikings game. Miami scoring 16 pts on the Redskins was actually above their season average. I expect Buffalo's offense to have a big game here and there's hope for Washington's too as both teams can run the ball well against defenses that appear vulnerable. The Over is still 20-8 the Bills' last 28 home games and this is a low number. 8* Over Redskins/Bills

8* Over BYU/Utah State (10:00 ET): These two teams have each been featured in our previous two LAST CHANCE POWER-DRIVE selections. Two weeks ago, BYU hosted Boise State. I took the Cougars plus the points (+7) and they won outright, handing Boise its first loss of the year. Late last Saturday night, I decided to lay the short number w/ Air Force at home. They waxed Utah State 31-7. Now we've got USU hosting BYU. The key here is that the Aggies are at home where they are averaging 44.0 PPG, which is well up from their paltry average on the road. Consider the Aggies have scored just 36 points TOTAL their L3 road games. Go w/ the Over here in the annual battle for the "Old Wagon Wheel." 

BYU got last week off to celebrate their upset of Boise State. That was a much needed win as the Cougs entered that game on a three-game losing streak, both SU and ATS. Believe it or not, BYU has been favored only twice this year as they've taken on a pretty murderous schedule. While they've pulled three outright upsets (Boise St, USC, Tennessee), they lost both games they were favored outright! While ATS results may be wildly inconsistent, there at least has been a real consistency to the amount of total pts scored in BYU games this season. There's been no fewer than 42 (opener vs. Utah) and no more than 64 (loss to Washington). The other five games have all fallen between 49 and 57 total pts scored. 

Utah State, on the other hand, has had wildly different outcomes depending whether they are at home or on the road. Last week's disastrous effort can be chalked up to "one of those days" in my opinion. Remember what I'd written about in the analysis. The Aggies are last in the country in time of possession. Last week, Air Force had the ball for over 45 minutes! That led to the USU defense tiring (which is what I said would happen) and they ended up allowing 448 yds rushing! But this is a totally different team in Logan, especially the offense. You won't see all the three-and-outs you saw last week as the Aggies are going to look to "push tempo." The last two years have seen them score 40+ on the BYU defense. The L5 USU games have all gone Under. Time for an Over. 8* Over BYU/Utah State

10* Under Raptors/Bucks (8:05 ET): This is an early season rematch of LY's Eastern Conference Finals where the Raptors eliminated the top-seeded Bucks 4 games to 2 en route to their 1st ever NBA Championship. Toronto won the final four games of that series after going just 1-5 against Milwaukee (including regular season) previously. While I wouldn't say the Bucks are off to a great start to this year, they did just blow out Orlando last night 123-91. That was a disappointing result for us (had the Magic), but in the second night of a B2B, I don't expect the Bucks to score as much. Take the Under here.

Toronto also went Over in its last game, a 125-113 win over Detroit. The Raptors are 4-1 SU/ATS, the only loss coming by six points at Boston. They've since rattled off three wins in a row, all by comfortable margins. Before blitzing the Pistons w/ near 60% shooting, the Raptors had been "doing it w/ defense" as they'd held their first four opponents to around 37% shooting from the field and their previous two both under 100 points. It's still early, but the Raptors rate 6th in defensive efficiency. Their shooting is a lock to come down from the last game and leading scorer Pascal Siakam is going to have to deal w/ guarding Giannis Antetokounmpo.

  The Bucks allowed a season-low in points last night, but they also have yet to allow any opponent to shoot better than 45.5% from the field. Toronto had not shot the ball particularly well its first four games. So while its easy to write off Milwaukee's defensive performance last night as a byproduct of "facing Orlando" (who has yet to score 100 pts in a game this season and also plays at the slowest pace), I think they'll do a solid job at containing the defending NBA Champs here. Both teams are 4-1 Under when coming off a DD win. 10* Under Raptors/Bucks

10* Under SMU/Memphis (7:30 ET): This is a real "contrarian" type play with two high-scoring teams meeting in the Liberty Bowl Saturday night. A case could be made that this is the most significant game of the weekend as the result should go a long way in determining who is the "Group of 5" representative in the New Year's Six Bowl Games. SMU is undefeated (8-0), but is the underdog here and probably should be seeing as Memphis (7-1) is 17-2 SU its L19 home games w/ both losses coming by just a single point! But we want no part of laying this number now that it's been bet up. The total is predictably very high and that's where the true value is. Take the Under.

SMU had a real "close call" last Thursday against Houston, winning 34-31 as double digit favorite. They were outgained 510-385 and needed a defensive stop on the final drive to preserve the victory. That wasn't the first "close call" the Mustangs have had this season. Half of their wins have been by six points or fewer, all four coming against teams that aren't going to end up in the Top 25. Last week was a season-low in points and yards for the SMU offense. It was also the first time this season that one of their games stayed Under the total. As a reminder, I had both Houston and the Under in that matchup. So I feel I've got a real "feel" for this team right now.

Now Memphis had its own close call last week, holding on to beat Tulsa 42-41 as the Golden Hurricane missed a 29-yard FG as time expired. Before you go dismissing the Tigers' defensive effort in that game (allowed 584 yards), note that they were on the field for 101 snaps! It was also a road game. Here at the Liberty Bowl, the Tigers are allowing only 18.5 PPG. They held Ole Miss, an SEC team, to just 10 pts in the season opener here. Now Memphis' last five games have all gone Over. But that was against a weaker slate of opponents than they'll face Saturday night. The Memphis streak of Overs, combined w/ SMU's O/U record have conspired to give us one of the higher O/U lines of this NCAAF season. It's not easy going Over a total this high. 10* Under SMU/Memphis

10* Calgary (7:05 ET): The Flames finished first in the Western Conference last year, but "flamed out" (terrible pun!) in the 1st round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. They figured to regress a bit this year and have started somewhat slow 7-6-2. They're coming to the end of a long road trip (5 games), which concludes tomorrow night in Washington. Halloween night brought a much needed 6-5 win in Nashville as the trip started w/ B2B losses. When they win, the Flames often score a lot, so I like tonight's matchup against a Columbus team that has really struggled on the goals allowed side of the ledger recently. 

I was very disappointed in the Blue Jackets' performance Wednesday night. They were at home vs. Edmonton and lost 4-1, a game they managed only 24 shots and trailed 4-0 early in the 2nd period. The Jackets' losing streak hit three last night w/ an OT loss in St. Louis. All overtime losses are pretty painful, but this one in particular had to sting C-bus as they were ahead 3-1 in the third period. Being in the second game of a B2B here does the Jackets no favors whatsoever. They've allowed 3+ goals in seven straight games, losing five of them. At the same time, they are averaging just 2.3 goals per game at home, which is tied for 2nd fewest in the league. 

The Flames have had some issues scoring on the road, but did just score six times in the win in Nashville Wednesday night. The GW goal came w/ just 1.2 seconds remaining in OT, courtesy of Matthew Tkachuk, and may be the prettiest goal you see all year. It was a game the Flames trailed 4-1 heading into the third period, so the two teams here have very different emotional mindsets coming into tonight. Calgary swept Columbus LY, scoring 13 goals in the two games, including NINE in the win here! The last time C-bus had to play the second game of a B2B, it was here at home and they lost 3-2 to the Islanders. Their -13 goal differential is 3rd worst in the East and 6th worst overall. 10* Calgary

10* Florida Atlantic (4:00 ET): This game feels very reminiscent of our September Game of the Month when we took FAU against Charlotte. The Owls were actually a slight dog heading into that contest (shocking in retrospect!), but prevailed 45-27 w/ 550+ yards of total offense. Five weeks later, they head to Western Kentucky to face a team that - like Charlotte - was not expected to finish near the top of the C-USA East Division standings. FAU was, so therefore I think the wrong team is favored in this matchup. Owls QB Chris Robison expects to start Saturday afternoon. Take the points.

These are two of the three teams that have just one conference loss in C-USA's East Division. Both lost to Marshall. Western Kentucky's loss to Marshall was last Saturday, 26-23, but they were 3.5-pt underdogs. So that makes it FIVE ATS wins in a row for the Hilltoppers. I think it's that streak that has them favored here, but note they were underdogs in three of those five games. WKU was -3 in TO's last week at Marshall, which proved costly. The Hilltoppers have been carried by a defense which has allowed just ONE 2nd half touchdown the L5 wks. But last week saw them surrender 401 yards and 26 points, the most in each category since a loss to Louisville on 9.14. FAU is arguably the best offensive team that WKU has faced all season.

Again, you would not have expected FAU to be an underdog in this game back at the start of the season. The Owls have won 5 of 6 since since an 0-2 start and really handled Old Dominion last week, winning 41-3. Robison has 208 yards passing in the first half, but didn't play in the second after being driven down hard into the turf. Note the Owls started 0-2 because they faced Ohio State and UCF. Believe it or not, the 24-point loss to Ohio State is tied for the closest any team has been to the Buckeyes all season. Robison has said he's preparing to start, so that's all we needed to know. FAU has beaten WKU both years under Lane Kiffin, winning 42-28 and 34-15. WKU has closed the gap a little in 2019, but still shouldn't be favored. We have the Owls 10 points better on a neutral field. 10* Florida Atlantic 

8* Over Utah/Washington (4:00 ET): Prior to two weeks ago, Washington had not been a home dog since 2015, which was Chris Petersen's first year here in Seattle. Now it's happened two games in a row! The Huskies lost to Oregon despite leading most of the way and that was their third loss of the season. Now they host a Utah team that could very well end up playing Oregon for the Pac 12 Championship. I'm a little "gun-shy" about playing UW in this spot as Utah is the better team and comes in w/ a severe case of double revenge (lost twice to the Huskies last season). But fortunately the total seems to be providing some REAL value. Take the Over. 

It's not often that the Under would be considered a "public" play, but it is here w/ a Utah team that's gone Under in six straight while holding its last three opponents to 10 points total. Then you have the fact that the two games vs. Washington last season had final scores of 21-7 and 10-3. But the key here is that Washington just faced an Oregon defense that had a similar statistical profile to Utah and they were able to hang 31 points on them while gaining over 400 yards. For the season, Washington averages 35.7 PPG. They are probably the best offensive team Utah has faced so far in 2019. 

Utah is off its first shutout win as a Pac 12 member as they beat Cal 35-0 last week, holding the Bears to 83 total yards! The week previous saw them down Arizona State 21-3 while allowing just 136 total yards. Those are some really impressive numbers, but both games took place in Salt Lake City. Also, it's not as if the Utes' offense can't put some points on the board. They are averaging 33.1 PPG. Three of the six games that have stayed Under for Utah would have gone Over this particular O/U line. The Washington defense they'll face on Saturday is not as strong as they one they saw twice last year. The Huskies gave up only 16.4 PPG LY. With only two starters back from that group, they are allowing 28.3 the L3 games. 8* Over Utah/Washington

8* Army (3:30 ET): Over the last two seasons, Army achieved unprecedented heights for the program (at least in the "modern era"), winning 21 games under HC Jeff Monken. They even finished ranked (#19) in the final poll LY, which was their first time in the Top 25 since 1996! This year started auspiciously w/ a narrow win over Rice (who is still winless). But the following week saw the Black Knights nearly upset Michigan in "The Big House," the second year in a row they took a top 10 opponent into overtime (Oklahoma). So everything appeared OK. But October saw the Cadets seemingly marching "in reverse." They've lost four straight, the last three all coming as favorites. Now they're a big dog against Air Force. At 3-5 SU, if Army were to lose here, then they'd need to win out just to be bowl eligible. The situation screams "take the points" as these "Commander In Chief" games tend to be both close and low-scoring.

Air Force was a nice winner for us last Saturday. It was a late night game, hosting Utah State, and the Falcons rolled to a 31-7 victory as 3.5-pt chalk. They held USU to just 128 total yards, including just 14 rushing. The Flyboys are now 6-2 SU and have surpassed LY's win total. Five of the last six games, they've held the opposition below 100 rushing yards. That seems critical when facing Army. But let's look at the one opponent the Falcons failed to keep under 100 yards rushing during that stretch. It was Navy, who went for 214 in a 34-25 upset in Annapolis. That's obviously the most comparable offense to what the Falcons face this week. While Air Force may still be unbeaten at home, they do seem ripe for a letdown following three straight double digit victories. Army hasn't lost a game by more than 9 pts all year. 

As alluded to above, these C-in-C games always tend to be low-scoring. Usually, they are close as well. Army has beaten Air Force two straight years, something that had previously not happened since 1977-78. Last year was a 3-point win (17-14) in West Point. Over the last five seasons, no Army game against either Air Force or Navy has seen more than 43 total points scored. More than half have seen 31 total pts or less scored. That makes taking the points a "no brainer" here as Army is better suited for the underdog role anyway. 8* Army

8* Dallas (9:35 ET): The Lakers are 3-1, having won three in a row, all as home favorites. They actually own the league's top scoring differential right now at +11.8 per game. But it's worth mentioning that their last two wins have come against Memphis and Charlotte, who are two of the league's worst teams. Tonight also marks the Lakers' first game away from Staples Center. Remember they opened the season w/ a game against the Clippers where they were the designated "road team." The Lakers remain a very "public" team and this short number on the road absolutely STINKS. Take the points.

Dallas is also 3-1 w/ its lone defeat coming by just two points (at home vs. Portland). The Mavs were expected to improve and contend for a playoff spot this year, so the 3-1 start is a good sign. They are off arguably their most impressive win to date, a 109-106 upset of Denver as six-point road dogs. They won that game despite their two top players - Kristaps Porzingis and Luka Doncic combining for just 22 points on 7 of 22 shooting. But SEVEN other Mavs finished in double figures to help pick up the slack. Expect the two stars to both bounce back this evening and the dropoff from the role players shouldn't be that severe as this is a home game (reserves typically play better at home). 

Anthony Davis had 40 points and 20 rebounds vs. Memphis in just three quarters of play. But again, the Grizzlies are not a formidable opponent. Davis also appeared to be bothered by a lingering shoulder issue in that game. He was 26 of 27 from the free throw line in that game, which accounted for most of his scoring. I suspect we won't be seeing him at the charity stripe that much tonight. Of course, we should probably mention LeBron James and that Kyle Kuzma is expected to make his season debut tonight. But I wouldn't expect too much from Kuzma in his first game back. I still have reservations about the Lakers defensively and James' teams had the worst ATS record in the league the L2 years. 8* Dallas

8* Orlando (7:05 ET): The Magic are a team we've been tracking all week. While they came up short for us in Monday's loss to the Raptors, they immediately bounced back w/ a win and cover Wednesday night against the Knicks. Admittedly, beating the Knicks wasn't as easy as it looked. The Magic were down at halftime before really putting down the clamps defensively. They held the Knicks to just 39 pts in the 2H. No team is playing at a slower pace than the Magic, whose games - on average - are the lowest scoring in the league right now. I'm counting on that slow pace and defense to be factor tonight as Orlando is a home dog for the 1st time this season. Take the points. 

Milwaukee won 60 games last year, finishing first in the East. They are the overwhelming favorite to finish first in the Conference again this year. But I suspect they're not going to win as many games this year as they did in 2018. They made a large jump from 44 to 60 (wins) last year based on a new offensive approach under HC Mike Budenholzer (more threes!) and Giannis Antetokounmpo emerging as one of the league's top players. The book is now out on the Bucks though. The "Greek Freak" (Antetokounmpo) is being hampered w/ foul trouble so far this year and the team has twice lost a game in which it held a lead of 16+ points. Defensively, they are giving up 117.5 PPG. 

Orlando is 2-0 at home this year. Granted, those wins were against the Cavs and Knicks. But considering how poorly the Magic have shot the ball so far, it's a wonder they've won any games at all! They are averaging 95.7 PPG on 39.5% shooting, including 28.8% from three-point range. Every one of those numbers ranks last in the league, except 3-pt shooting, which is 29th (2nd worst). You have to imagine the shooting is set to improve and with Milwaukee struggling defensively, tonight should be the night Orlando breaks out offensively. The Magic have no problems defensively, ranking 2nd in the league in points allowed at 93.8 PPG and 3rd in efficiency. I smell an "upset" here. 8* Orlando

8* Under Pacers/Cavs (7:05 ET): Both of these teams won Wednesday night. Cleveland used some hot second-half shooting to beat the Bulls 117-111 and remain unbeaten at home (2-0). Indiana, now 1-3, picked up its first win of the season by beating Brooklyn 118-108 in what was a battle of 0-3 ATS teams. This is an early season rematch as the Cavs won the first go around 110-99, at home. The Cavs have shot better than 50% in both home games this year, but are down at 41.3% on the road. Meanwhile, the Pacers are going to be w/o Myles Turner tonight, one of their two low-post scorers. For a 2nd time this year, this matchup produces an Under. 

Cleveland has increased its scoring w/ each passing game. They started the year by getting held to 85 points in a loss at Orlando. They've scored 110 or more in each of the L3 games, so really the big jump came from game #1 to game #2, which was against these Pacers. The first meeting w/ Indiana was last Saturday and both teams were on two days' rest. The Cavs have been getting great production from their two bigs, Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson, both of whom are averaging double-doubles. But I'm unconvinced that either will be able to maintain their current averages. Tonight being a road game, I expect Cleveland's scoring to decrease from the previous game for the 1st time all season.

Indiana's offense also runs through its two big men, but one of them (Turner) will be out due to an ankle injury. That leaves Domantas Sabonis alone down low. Malcom Brogden went for 30 in the first game vs. Cleveland, a number I don't see him getting to tonight. The Pacers had just six offensive rebounds in that loss to the Cavs and with Turner now out, it's not like they are likely to do any better. Don't forget the Pacers are also w/o LY's leading scorer Victor Oladipo, so it's not really that surprising to see them struggling in the early going. Indiana is 56-33 Under when favored the L3 seasons and it should be noted they were a dog when they beat Brooklyn Weds night. The Under is also 24-8 the L3 seasons when Indiana is off an outright win as a dog. The Under is 6-1 the L7 times Cleveland has played here in Indiana. 8* Under Pacers/Cavs 

7* Washington (7:05 ET): The ML for this matchup of division leaders should tell you a lot. Normally, when you envision two division leaders meeting, the thought is of a hard-fought battle between two evenly matched teams. Not here though. It's still early in the NHL season mind you, which means "division leader" doesn't necessarily hold as much water as it would ... say in January or February. Buffalo is 9-2-2 right now, but you have to wonder if they are capable of maintaining that kind of pace. This is a team that finished w/ only 76 points last season. Washington, on the other hand, is a proven commodity, and the right side here. 

We've already seen the Sabres start to regress a bit as they've dropped two of their last three games. They haven't exactly faced a "murderer's row" of opponents either: the Rangers, Red Wings and Coyotes. The first two are right near the bottom of the league in points. Buffalo was held to two goals in each of those three games as its early season scoring blitz seems to have subsided. Perhaps playing 13 games in 26 days has started to take its toll? Monday (vs. Arizona) was the first home loss of the season. They have lost 11 of the last 14 times they've faced the Caps, including an 0-5-2 mark here in D.C. 

Conversely, the Capitals started slow, but now look like the best team in the league. They've won 7 of 8 w/ the only loss coming in Edmonton, a game in which the Caps held a 3-1 third period lead. They've scored 4+ goals in the L7 wins, putting them on top of the league in scoring (3.9 goals per game). Defenseman John Carlson had himself a record-setting October w/ 23 points. But perhaps the most impressive thing of all is that most of the Caps' games so far have been on the road where they are now 7-1-1. This will be just their sixth game at home and they welcome back Braden Holtby between the pipes. Holtby sat out Tuesday's 4-3 OT win in Toronto. He is 4-0-1 his L5 appearances. 7* Washington

10* Under Ga Southern/Appalachian State (8:00 ET): Appalachian State enters as one of nine unbeaten teams still remaining in College Football, but don't think for a second that the Mountaineers will be taking Georgia Southern very lightly. That's because LY the Eagles beat a ranked ASU squad (#25) 34-14 in Statesboro. Now that was a much better Ga Southern team (finished 10-3 SU) and the game was at home. But I still wouldn't expect any kind of defensive letdown from the favorite this week. With the weather forecast calling for heavy rain, Under is the call here. Both teams have run-oriented offenses and stout defenses. 

Though all seven games have ended in victory, the last three for Appalachian State have gone a lot differently than the previous three. They've allowed just 17 points total the L3 wks w/ the Under going 3-0. The Mountaineers' defense has allowed 7 pts or less four times this season. Last week's 30-3 win over South Alabama saw them allow just 139 total yards. The week before saw them allow just 213 in a 52-7 win over La Monroe. Don't look for ASU to score a ton this week, however. Not only will weather be a factor, but so will a Georgia Southern defense that has allowed fewer than 275 yards in each of its last three games. Last week, the Eagles held New Mexico State to 7 points in their most complete effort to date.

These schools were conference rivals in the FCS days (played in the SoCon), so they've met every year going back to '93 (33 times total). The last five have come at the FBS level and only one of them has gone Over. That Over was last year, by a single point. App State lost starting QB Zac Thomas early in game and finished w/ only 288 yards and five turnovers. While they figure to gain more yards Thursday, the reduction in turnovers figures to be more significant. Those 5 TO's last year were converted into 24 pts by Ga Southern, including three touchdowns. While both offenses are effective at running the ball (both top 15 nationally in rush YPG), both defenses are also adept at stopping it. ASU may also be "saving" some of its trickier plays for next week's massive game at South Carolina. 10* Under Ga Southern/Appalachian State

9* Over Heat/Hawks (7:05 ET): If this feels like a case of 'deja vu', these teams just met Tuesday in Miami w/ the Heat winning 112-97. I was on the home team, laying 7.5 points, as they basically led the entire way and by double digits much of the second half. It was Jimmy Butler's Miami debut and he delivered 21 pts. But the big story was Hawks G Trae Young spraining his ankle early in the second quarter. After Young left the game, Atlanta just wasn't the same. Young's expected absence on Thursday is the reason the Heat are favored by roughly the same number of points here in Atlanta as they were at home. The O/U line is also much lower. Take the Over.

Obviously, the Hawks are going to miss Young's 26.8 points and 7.3 assists per game. But collectively they can pick up the scoring slack. It was a season-low 97 points they scored in Miami as they shot below 43% for the second game in a row. Not coincidentally, they also lost both of those games. The first two games, which were both wins, saw the team shoot above 51%. All four games, regardless if they were a win or loss, have gone Under. The Hawks had been doing an excellent job defensively before facing Miami Tuesday night. But the Heat are averaging 118 PPG so far and now have Butler back. What I'm saying is don't be shocked is Atlanta struggles defensively tonight. 

Miami is allowing a FG% of 42.9 for the year. Yet their first three games all went Over. They've scored 112 or more in every game where they've come in rested. Their 472 points scored through four games is actually a new franchise record.   At the same time, the 97 pts allowed to Atlanta on Tuesday marked a season-low. I'd expect an Atlanta increase tonight. Specifically, you should start to see improvement from 3-pt range where the Hawks are 31.5% so far. At the same time, they can't keep holding teams to 27.9% from behind the arc. This will be a surprising shootout. 9* Over Heat/Hawks

10* Columbus (7:30 ET): I've previously run through some of the issues w/ Edmonton. Their 7-1 start to the season was somewhat of a "mirage" as they had to come from behind to win each of the first five games and were also being outshot rather dramatically. Things have definitely come back "down to Earth" for the Oilers in the L5 games w/ them losing four times and the only win being yet another come from behind effort where they rallied from a 3-1 third period deficit to beat Washington 4-3 in OT. Losses to Detroit and Florida over the previous three days were not all that surprising on this end and a clear sign this club is predictably regressing to the mean. 

This will be the second game of a back to back for Edmonton (more on last night's game in a moment). For Columbus, they've had three days off to recoup from a 7-4 loss at Philadelphia. That was the second time this year that the Blue Jackets allowed 7 goals in a game, but both times came on the road. Something else to keep in mind is that the Blue Jackets were actually up on the Flyers (4-2) in the third period before giving up five unanswered goals. Prior to that game, they'd won B2B games and hadn't lost in regulation in more than two weeks. The situation is totally in the Blue Jackets' favor tonight as they are coming in well-rested. They are also 35-17 SU off a loss by 2+ goals. 

So Edmonton was in Detroit last night where they lost 3-1. That came on the heels of their worst defensive effort of the season, Sunday's 6-2 home loss to Florida. The Red Wings had lost eight in a row before beating the Oilers, so that's a bad loss for Edmonton. Something I first wrote about weeks ago was that the Oilers' shooting percentage was set to go down. It has. They are still 28th in the league in shots per game, so that decrease should continue. It's just the opposite for C-bus, who averages a healthy number of shots per game (33.6), but is only 21st in goals per game. The Jackets have some revenge here after dropping both games to Edmonton LY. 10* Columbus

10* Orlando (7:05 ET): So the Magic are 0-3 ATS to start the season, which is a disappointment obviously, but perhaps also a reflection of the fact there are actual expectations for this team in 2019-20. That hasn't been the case for some time. But w/ LY's playoff breakthrough and the Eastern Conference being so wide-open this year, a team with this kind of continuity (returned 85% of LY's minutes played) should do well. A 1-2 start isn't cause for any kind concern, but after B2B losses, the Magic could really use an easy win tonight. Fortunately, they'll be playing the Knicks! Lay the points. 

The Knicks had the worst record in the league last season (17-65), setting expectations rather low in the Big Apple. Sure enough, the team opened the year by losing three straight. They did beat Chicago on Monday, but that required a pretty big comeback and the game was at home. The Knicks trailed by 18 at the end of the 1st quarter and were down 7 entering the 4Q. Their first lead came in the final two minutes as Bobby Portis sunk a go-ahead 3-pointer to cap one of the best games of his career (28 points). A player like Portis can't be counted on every night though. In fact, he'd scored just 18 pts total in the first three games. There were only three times all of last season where NY won B2B games, by the way. 

Orlando has yet to score 100 pts in a game this year, which is a problem. But look for them to get on track offensively tonight. The Knicks aren't a great defensive team obviously. Before beating Chicago, they'd allowed 113+ points in every game. Orlando's only win came here at home where they beat a Cleveland team (95-84) that's pretty comparable to the Knicks. Both losses were on the road. While the offense has struggled, the Magic do rank 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency, which is a good sign My call is that a season-high in points scored is all but a lock tonight and the strong defensive play continues. The Magic are 6-2 SU/ATS the L2 years vs. the Knicks. 10* Orlando

10* Houston (8:07 ET): Without question, the most pertinent trend of this year's World Series is that the road team has won all five games. Coming in as the biggest WS favorite since '07, the Astros shockingly dropped Games 1 & 2 at home despite having Cole and Verlander on the mound. But perhaps even more shocking is that they were able to come back and take all three games in D.C. I don't see this trend continuing for Game 6 and that's bad news for the Nationals as it would mean their season and the entire MLB season would be over. Yes, I'm calling for the Astros to win the Fall Classic for a second time in three seasons. 

We were denied a second act of vs Scherzer vs. Cole when the former was scratched prior to Game 5. Perhaps it would not have mattered even if Scherzer did pitch. Because Cole threw a "gem," going seven innings and allowing only 1 run on 3 hits. It was 8-1 Astros as, incredibly, they outscored the Nationals 19-3 in the three games in D.C. Houston is 65-24 at home this season. Washington is a good road team, but their confidence must be shaken at this point. They must also figure out a way to beat Verlander twice, something they could not do with Cole. 

Verlander is making his sixth start of the postseason. He's allowed exactly four runs in three of the previous five, which is kind of shocking. The Astros lost all three of those games. But they won the other two (both here at home) and he still has a 2.81 ERA and 0.853 WHIP for the year in 39 starts. His team start record is 26-13. Washington will again have Stephen Strasburg to oppose Verlander. While Strasburg won the 1st go around and has a 6-0 TSR his L6 starts overall, I just can't see him and the Nats beating Verlander and the Astros twice, in Houston no less. There's a reason Houston came in as the biggest WS favorites in over a decade. They are that good. Plus, with the DH back in the lineup, their offense should improve. 10* Houston

10* Miami (7:35 ET): Sunday saw the Heat fail in the second game of a back to back, losing to Minnesota 116-109 as 6.5-pt underdogs. But it's not as if they weren't in the game. Despite a terrible 1st quarter (outscored 36-23), Miami led by 7 entering the 4th quarter. But then the 4Q was even worse than 1st and they ended up not covering. I was happy to see that as we'd taken the T'wolves. But now its time for the Heat to capitalize on an opponent being in the 2nd game of a B2B. It's Atlanta, who lost by 2 last night. We'll capitalize too. Lay the number.

The Hawks did cover last night and are now 3-0 ATS on the year. We had them in the opener at Detroit where they won outright (by 17 pts!). That was followed by a 103-99 win over Orlando in the home opener. Trae Young has been very good in the early going, but was held to just six points in the second half vs. Philadelphia last night. That was a much different finish than the Orlando game when he scored the Hawks' final eight points. Monday's result has to be tough to swallow for Young and the rest of the Hawks seeing as they never trailed by more than four and were up 13 in the first half. Much like Miami on Sunday, it's a tough spot for the road team here. 

Saturday saw Miami rally from 21 down in the second half to win at Milwaukee. I certainly didn't like their chances Sunday in Minnesota given the circumstance, but the Heat played better than expected. They've won their only other home game this season, 120-101 over Memphis, and now are expected to get Jimmy Butler back in the starting lineup. That the Heat didn't start poorly w/o Butler is a good sign. Miami is a team many feel can win the Southeast Division and I'm not going to disagree w/ that (it's between them and Orlando). Atlanta has won just 21 of its last 63 road games and is 7-20 SU in the second game of a back to back. 10* Miami

6* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET): The Lightning lost their last time out, 3-2 at home to Nashville (in OT), but tonight seems like a good landing spot as they visit MSG to face the struggling Rangers. At 5-3-2 overall, it's been a bit of a disappointing start for TB, who were 7-2-1 at this time last year en route to a record-setting 62-16-4 regular season (of course, we all remember what then happened in the playoffs). My view is that you'll have to "pick and choose" your spots w/ the Lightning this year, but this is a spot where I definitely love them as they've gone 3-0 off their previous three losses. 

The Rangers have lost six of seven, their only win coming against a Buffalo team that's been the biggest early season surprise. So the Lightning definitely should still take this game seriously and they will. But the bottom line is that the Blueshirts still only have 7 points on the year, which is second fewest in the entire league. They've only been outscored by 5 goals, but giving up 7 was definitely not a "good look" Sunday against Boston. That loss came here at home where the Rangers are now 2-3-1. They are 0-3 SU this season off a loss by 2+ goals. 

As you might have guessed, the Lightning have had the Rangers' number the last couple years, winning five of the last six meetings. That includes a 3-0 record here at MSG, two of those wins coming last season.  Something to keep in mind when it comes to the Lightning's start to the year is that they've played a lot of road games so far. Earlier in the year, they were able to go 3-2-1 on a six-game trip and they faced a lot better teams than the one they'll face off w/ tonight. The Rangers are giving up lots of shots (36.9 per game), the most in the league in fact, and that's led to them also giving up the second most goals. With all their firepower, the Lightning should certainly take advantage. 6* Tampa Bay

8* Pittsburgh (8:15 ET): Despite them being left for dead following a season-ending injury to Ben Roethlisberger, don't count out the Steelers quite yet. They are 2-4 SU in a weak AFC. The only game that they played poorly in was a Week 1 loss to the Patriots, who are the best team in the league. Their other three losses have been by a total of nine points. They've saved some of their best efforts for primetime as two weeks ago they beat the Chargers on SNF and the team's "best" game of the year came on a Monday night when they whipped the winless Bengals 27-3. Coming off a bye and facing another winless team (Miami) in primetime this week, I expect the Black and Gold to roll. Lay the points.

Despite having one of the worst six-game starts in league history, the Dolphins seem to be drawing some interest from bettors here. Admittedly, they have been more competitive the L2 weeks, going 2-0 ATS. But that was against Washington (who was also winless at the time) and a Buffalo team that isn't as good as its record. Ryan Fitzpatrick seems to have breathed some life into a previously anemic offense, but he's 0-6 SU all-time against the Steelers. Also, Miami has yet to score more than 21 points in a game this season. They've been outscored by 148 points in the six games. No team has scored fewer points and none have given up more (even though many teams have played 8 games as opposed to Miami's 6!). This is a terrible football team, one of the worst in league history and they have a very real shot at going 0-16 SU. 

Pittsburgh coming off a bye week here is big because it allows for Mason Rudolph to return at QB. Rudolph is no Big Ben, but he's certainly an upgrade over Devlin Hodges, whom they were able to win with out in LA two weeks ago. Every team besides Washington has been able to score at least 30 points against this Dolphins' defense. The Steelers are typically a good October team having gone 8-2 SU, 8-1-1 ATS in the month the L3 seasons. They've got some advantages here in pass protection and should easily be able to move the ball against a Miami defense which ranks 31st against the run. It's a lot of points to swallow here, but the Dolphins are indeed "that bad." 8* Pittsburgh

10* Orlando (7:35 ET): Projecting this year's NBA season proved to be a bit more challenging than normal due to all the player movement in the offseason. In the Eastern Conference, Milwaukee is the consensus top team w/ Boston and Philly probably most people's choices as the top challengers. After that, it gets rather murky. Here we have two teams wanting to be in the mix, Orlando and Toronto. The Raptors are obviously defending NBA Champs, but lost Kawhi Leonard. The Magic are interesting. While there was so much player movement in the offseason, they return about as many of LY's minutes played as any team in the East. Though it's an 0-2 ATS start for them this year, we'll back them plus the points Monday. 

Orlando returns 85% of last season's total minutes played. The only time w/ greater continuity is Denver. The Magic looked good in their season opener, holding Cleveland to 85 points on 37.1% shooting, but then fell victim to a hot-shooting night by Atlanta's Trae Young (went for 39 pts) in a 103-99 loss to the Hawks Saturday night. The Magic really didn't help themselves by shooting just 35.4% in that game, including 16.1% from three-point range (5 of 31). They should easily improve upon those numbers here. There's also a little bit of the revenge factor in play for Orlando tonight as they were the first team eliminated by Toronto in year's playoffs, losing the series 4-1. The one win did come here in Toronto though. 

The Raptors are going to have to offset the loss of Leonard somehow. So far, it's been Pascal Siakam, who has scored 86 points in three games. But I don't see that continuing. Siakam's production fell drastically in the third game, down to 19 pts, though it hardly mattered as the Raptors still beat the Bulls 108-84. But this is a team that could easily be 1-2 right now if not for a come from behind, OT victory over New Orleans on Opening Night. Toronto likely will be unable to maintain its current 39.8% shooting from 3-pt range. I like this Orlando team, especially in the underdog role. After they were favorites in the first two games, it's time to back them here. 10* Orlando

8* Minnesota (7:05 ET): Normally, the T’wolves might not be favored by this many points over the Heat. But this one is all about the situation. Saturday saw Miami rally back from 21 down to defeat Milwaukee on the road. I just don’t think they are going to have much left in the tank as they arrive in the Twin Cities Sunday. The Heat were very fortunate yesterday in that the Bucks missed 24 of their final 27 three-point attempts and Giannis Antetokounmpo fouled out. Time to fade the Heat in the second night of a back to back. Lay the points.

Minnesota, like Miami, is 2-0 straight up and against the spread. In the opener, they were able to do what the Bucks couldn’t on Saturday and that’s survive a big second half rally. Despite Kyrie Irving scoring 50 points, Minnesota was able to beat Brooklyn 127-126 in overtime. They followed that up w/ a convincing win over lowly Charlotte, 121-99 as a five-point favorite. It’s important to note that both wins came on the road. Karl Anthony-Towns has been a beast so far, averaging 36.5 points, 14.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 3.5 steals and 2.5 blocks.

Remember that Miami is playing short-handed here w/o Jimmy Butler, Dion Waiters and Udonis Haslem. That would be bad in any normal scenario, but it’s brutal for a second night of a B2B. Will Minnesota ultimately be a playoff team in 2020? Maybe not. But they are well positioned to start the season a perfect 3-0 straight up and against the spread. 8* Minnesota

10* Over Panthers/49ers (4:05 ET): By virtually every objective measure, San Francisco is the 2nd best team in the league right now.  Few, if any, saw this coming. But I can say that we at least saw this as the team most likely to improve its record in 2019. When it came to injuries, turnovers and just plain bad luck, the 49ers were hit pretty hard in 2018. But there's no "smoke and mirrors" when it comes to this 6-0 SU record as the Niners are the only team besides the Patriots w/o a loss and they've got the second best point differential as well. Their future outlook seems promising as well. They'll be favored in each of the next five games unless something major changes. 

This week's opponent is the Carolina Panthers, who are off a bye. The week before the bye, Carolina was in London, beating division rival Tampa Bay 37-26 (as 2-pt favorites) thanks in large part to SEVEN Bucs' turnovers. Quite frankly, the Panthers were a little fortunate to win/cover in that they were outgained 407-268. But in this league, you're going to win 99.9% of the time when the opponent turns it over 7 times. Of course, the story we need to talk about right now w/ Carolina is QB Kyle Allen. In three of the four games Allen has started, the Panthers have scored 34+ points. Allen isn't better than Cam Newton, but he is clearly better than an INJURED Newton.

The 49ers have largely done it w/ defense, giving up just 223.5 yards and 10.7 points per game. Both numbers rank 2nd in the league, trailing only the Patriots. The Niners have the league's top pass defense, so it will be interesting to see if Allen's stretch of good play halts here. Regardless, you can look for SF to pile up some points. Carolina's defense isn't that great and has given up an average of more than 450 yards the L2 games. Their secondary was shredded by both Gardner Minshew and Jameis Winston, so Jimmy Garoppolo should be in line for a strong stat line this week. The Niners offense is averaging 441 yards at 6.3 YPP at home so far. Certainly conditions will be a lot nicer here compared to last week in D.C. (9-0 shutout of the Redskins). 10* Over Panthers/49ers

8* Denver (1:00 ET): In what could ultimately be a low-scoring game, taking the points seems like the right move here. It feels as if we’re buying the Broncos at a low-point as they lost 30-6 to Kansas City last Thursday (even though the Chiefs lost Patrick Mahomes to injury). Last Sunday, Indianapolis was in an ideal spot facing the Texans. They were off a bye and won 30-23, leaving them alone in first place of the AFC South. Coming off that big win, it seems like a good spot to fade as the Colts have not won a game by more than seven points all season. 

The Colts are just the third team since 1970 to open with six straight games decided by seven points or less and win at least four of them. No team has ever started a year by playing seven straight one-score games and going 5-2 or better. So unless you think Indy is going to win in a blowout here, history is against them. Both of their losses came against AFC West team and neither of them were to Kansas City. Despite their 5-2 SU record, the Colts are being outgained on both a per game (-10.5) and per play basis (-1.1). They are a bit of a mirage as far as we’re concerned. 

The Broncos are better than their WL record. While 2-5 SU, they have actually outgained opponents on a per game and per play basis. The defense allows just 302.6 YPG, which is 4th best in the league! Now the offense isn’t great as Joe Flacco is clearly a stop gap until the next franchise QB is found. But only two of their losses have been by more than one score. The Colts’ YTD point differential is just +5. Denver can easily keep this game close, if not win it outright. 8* Denver

10* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): The Bengals are winless (0-7), but they are far from the worst team in this league. Four of their seven losses have been by six points or less. Things could have ended up a lot differently last week vs. Jacksonville were it not for four turnovers. Three of those were Andy Dalton interceptions, the first of which came when it was still a one-score game in the 4Q. The second was a pick-six that made it a two-score game. The third led to a FG. The Bengals won’t lose every game this season and while they might not win this one, they’ll stay within the number. Take the points in London. 

Yes, this is a London game. While a spread such as this might be justified if the game were being played in LA, it’s definitely too high for a neutral setting where anything can happen. The Rams certainly aren’t as dominant right now as they’ve been the previous two seasons. While off their biggest margin of victory this season (37-10 over Atlanta), the Rams are still just 4-3 and not blowing many teams out. Prior to last week, there only other double digit win came when New Orleans lost Drew Brees mid-game. QB Jared Goff hasn’t thrown more than 2 TD passes in any game this season. 

Cincinnati has covered the last five times they’ve been an underdog of seven or more points and are 3-1 ATS the L4 times they’ve been a double digit dog. While things may look grim in the first season under HC Zac Taylor, the team should stay motivated until they get a win. Anything can happen in a London game, so the Bengals have a better shot here than they would if it were a “true” road game. Taylor knows the Rams as he previously served on Sean McVay’s staff. The Bengals’ defense is a lot more suspect against the run than the pass, but the Rams are more of a passing team. 10* Cincinnati

8* Air Force (10:15 ET): Though Boise State lost last week, it was to a non-conference opponent (BYU). So that means Utah State is still in a first place tie w/ the Broncos atop the division, one half-game up on this week's opponent, Air Force. Of course, BYU over Boise State was last week's LAST CHANCE POWER-DRIVE selection, so it only seems appropriate that we'd be playing this matchup. We're taking Air Force as they've got the homefield advantage + the revenge angle after losing LY in Logan by a score of 42-32. The Flyboys are a team we were relatively high on coming into the year whereas USU figured to regress from LY's 11-2 SU campaign. Lay the short number. 

The AFA is 5-2 SU overall and coming off a 56-26 win over Hawaii, their 2nd straight win by double digits. The week prior, here in Colorado Springs, saw them beat Fresno State 43-24. So the offense is certainly "humming along" right now. Much of that is obviously due to the triple option as the Falcons have run for 340+ yards in B2B weeks. But they've also added a bit more of a passing element to their arsenal this season. Utah State, save for the 42-6 loss to LSU, has done a good job at stopping the run this year. But the big key here is that the Aggies are last in the country in time of possession. The defense figures to be on the field a LOT of the time Saturday night and is likely to wear down as the game progresses. 

The only MWC loss Air Force has suffered this was to Boise State, on the road. While they lost that game 30-19 as eight-point underdogs, they actually were dead even in total yardage (355-355) and were up late in the third quarter. The other loss was to Navy, which is always a tricky matchup. Utah State has lost two of its three road games so far and those two losses were the only games so far this season where they were underdogs. Three of their four wins have been in games where they were favored by three touchdowns or more. They are just 4-10 SU the L14 times being underdogs. The TOP element is going to be a big deal here and we look for the favorite to pull away late. 8* Air Force

10* Over Pelicans/Rockets (8:05 ET): It’s bad enough that the Pelicans lost Zion Williamson to a knee injury in the preseason. But now they’re 0-2 including a brutal overtime loss in Toronto to open the season. The fact they didn’t get the cash in that one was pretty tough to swallow for Pelicans’ backers and then the team came out flat last night in 123-116 home loss to Dallas. 

Houston is 0-1 after losing at home to Milwaukee Wednesday. Unlike in New Orleans, there’s not much to worry about here. The Rockets should easily finish in the top three in the Western Conference this season thanks to the addition of Russell Westbrook. The Rockets shot only 36.7% Wednesday night, a number they’re almost certain to improve on tonight. 

It would be easy to be “scared off” by this high total, but New Orleans has given up 130 and 123 points so far this season. Both their games went Over and now they face a Rockets team that is usually among the league leaders in points per game. On average, Pelicans’ games were the highest scoring of all teams last season. They allowed 116.8 PPG last season, which was tied for 28th, and that was with Anthony Davis playing a partial season. This promises to be a very high-scoring game. 10* Over Pelicans/Rockets

10* Under Duke/North Carolina (4:00 ET): This one may not mean as much as it does on the basketball court, but it's still a rivalry game where the two teams know each other well. Obviously, Mack Brown is in his first year back at Chapel Hill, but the teams play every year. It's a rivalry that has gone Duke's way each of the last three seasons w/ them winning by 1, 10 and 7 points. Certainly Brown is going to put an impetus on ending that particular losing streak. Speaking of streaks, Duke's last six games have all gone Over the total. Not this one though. They managed only 14 points in a road loss to Virginia last week while UNC's 43-41 final score (loss) to Va Tech last week is misleading in the sense that the game went to SIX overtimes! Take the Under. 

The UNC-Va Tech game was tied 31-31 at the end of regulation last week. That's still a high-scoring game obviously, but Virginia Tech's defense is not good. Duke's defense may have turned in a season-worst effort last week in terms of points allowed (48) to Virginia, but note that came on just over 300 total yards allowed. Virginia returned a kickoff for a TD plus they had FIVE scoring drives of 40 yards or less. The Blue Devils definitely didn't help themselves by turning the ball over five times. Don't look for North Carolina to be gifted those same opportunities this week. Duke has has been bitten by the turnover bug twice now in 2019. But they've also had three games w/o a TO. Last week was just the second time in the L6 games that Duke allowed more than 23 pts. 

At the same time, Duke's offense only gained 250 total yards last week and one of their two touchdowns came in "garbage time." The L3 games have seen them barely average 300 YPG. Of course, a dropoff offensively was to be expected after losing a QB that was a 1st round draft choice by the NFL (Daniel Jones). But four games this year w/ less than 180 yards passing has to be a more severe decline than was expected. North Carolina's two highest scoring games of the season have come over the L2 weeks, but again there was the 6OT game last week and the other was against rebuilding Georgia Tech. QB Sam Howell threw for 348+ yards in the two games, but here he'll be facing a Duke defense that has has allowed more than 206 yds through their only one time since facing Alabama in the season opener. 10* Under Duke/North Carolina 

8* Maryland (3:30 ET): What has gone wrong w/ Maryland? Once touted as an up-and-coming program, the Terrapins have seen their season go "sideways" w/ last week's 34-28 setback vs. Indiana being their 4th loss in the last 5 games (only win was against Rutgers). Of course, we backed the Terps in that lone win. We'll do it again this week as we remain highly skeptical of Minnesota despite its unbeaten record. The Golden Gophers are also off a convincing win over Rutgers, running their YTD record to 7-0 SU. But four of those wins have come by 7 points or less and it's not like they've played a ton of heavyweights. Too many points to pass up here as Maryland is an attractive underdog in this spot. Grab the number. 

It would be easy to pin Maryland's recent woes on the fact they were starting a backup QB. Tyrrell Pigrome went 0-2 in place of an injured Josh Jackson, who is expected to return here. Two late turnovers, one of them a Pigrome INT, cost Maryland dearly last week in College Park. That came not long after a fumble led to the eventual GW FG for Indiana. While on the surface, things may not look as if they are going too well for 1st year HC Mike Locksley right now, this is a team that was ranked in the Top 25 last month. Even w/ a backup QB, the Terps averaged nearly 400 YPG the L2 games. Not only is Jackson expected back this week, but so too is RB Anthony McFarland, who was also dealing w/ an ankle sprain. It certainly won't be easy for Minnesota to outscore Maryland by the amount the oddsmakers are calling for here.

The Golden Gophers may be ranked 17th in the country, but I'm not sure anyone believes there are only 16 teams better than this one. There's probably more than 25 teams that would be favored against them on a neutral field, including six from the Big 10! Maryland may not be one of them, but the Terrapins deserve more respect than this w/ their QB and RB both set to return. They have beaten Minnesota each of the last two years including as a 13-point dog here at TCF Bank Stadium two years ago. Last year, it was a 42-13 game at College Park and the Terps probably were a weaker team then. Look for Minnesota's 4-game ATS win streak to come to an end here as the 'dog should keep this one within single digits. 8* Maryland

8* Kansas State (12:00 ET): It's not like Kansas State is a bad team or incapable of pulling an upset. Just last week, here in Manhattan, the Wildcats beat TCU 24-17 as 4.5-point pups. They also went to Mississippi State earlier and the year and won outright. A couple losses to Oklahoma State and Baylor have lowered their profile somewhat, but we still don't think they should be catching this many points, even against mighty Oklahoma. The unbeaten Sooners are probably feeling pretty good about themselves coming off a 52-14 beatdown of West Virginia last Saturday. But prior to next week's open date, I can see a letdown taking place here. We've seen some unbeatens go down as big favorite the last couple Saturday's. So take the points here w/ a dog that should be giving its 'A effort'.

It would obviously take a 'Herculean effort' from Kansas State to pull the upset. But it's a chance for 1st year HC Chris Klieman to certainly put his imprint on this program. Klieman took over for a legend, that being Bill Snyder, and I think he's certainly done a good job here so far. That shouldn't be a shock considering the success he had at North Dakota State, which was one of the premier FCS teams every year during his tenure there. While an outright upset is admittedly unlikely Saturday in Manhattan, the home dog can certainly stay within this generous number. Last week's upset of TCU brought the Wildcats' ATS record as a home dog to 16-8 the L11 seasons. It was a game they actually never trailed. 

The surprising thing about Oklahoma this year has been the play of the defense, which ranks 28th nationally in yards allowed. But that unit has lost LB Jon-Michael Terry for the year. The Sooners did outclass Texas in the RRR, but other than that haven't really played anybody of note. They've faced the three worst teams in the Big 12. So the fact they are racking up big margins of victory is not that shocking. A Kansas State defense that has allowed more than 26 pts just one time in 2019 should be OU's 2nd real "test" of the season. The Sooners are just 3-7 ATS following a SU win by 20+ points. Kansas State has upset Oklahoma twice in the past seven years and certainly is out to avenge last year's 37-point loss in Norman. 8* Kansas State

10* Miami FL (12:00 ET): "The U" probably didn't figure it would be getting this many points from Pitt in a late October clash. Then again, they probably didn't anticipate being 3-4 SU coming into this game either. But those are the realities heading into this Saturday at Heinz Field. Last week, the Hurricanes lost outright as 18.5-point favorites to Georgia Tech, a real embarrassment considering the Yellow Jackets had yet to cover a spread all season. You should look for the 'Canes to bounce back and play inspired ball this week, however. We remain unsold on Pitt, a team that is 5-0 ATS its last five games. With that ATS record, note the Panthers have only been favored twice and never by more than 4.5 points! The last four wins have been by a total of 14 points. Take the points. 

Despite being favored in all of the last six games, Miami is just 3-3 straight up. That's pretty shocking to see. Before losing to Ga Tech, the team's previous loss came to Virginia Tech. You may recall we backed them the following week and they pulled what could be called an upset over a ranked Virginia team (Miami was actually -3 in the game). One certainly has to hope that LW's loss will prove to the nadir of HC Manny Diaz's 1st year here in Coral Gables. It was an overtime loss where Miami had the potential GW field goal (just 25 yards!) blocked at the end of regulation. They also gave up a TD on a fake punt and had a fumble recovered in the end zone for another score. All four Miami losses this year have come by seven points or less. 

Pitt played Penn State tough and owns an outright win over UCF. They've also picked up a pair of ACC road wins the L2 weeks, beating Duke and Syracuse. But this is a team that was favored by only 4.5 over Ohio U here at home earlier this season. As alluded to above, last week's win at Syracuse marked just the second lined game all season in which the Panthers were the betting favorite. Last year, Miami crushed Pitt 24-3 as the Panthers had a spot in the ACC Championship Game already sewn up. We backed the Hurricanes that day and will do so again this year. Ironically, Miami's only loss to Pitt in the L4 years came in 2017 when they were ranked #2 in the country! While Pitt is 5-2 SU overall, they have a YTD point differential of +1. The Miami defense is allowing a fewer number of points per game. 10* Miami (FL)

10* Phoenix (9:05 ET): The Suns are going to need to learn to win w/o the services of Deandre Ayton because the former #1 overall draft pick is now suspended for 25 games due to failing a drug test. Ayton did have 18 pts and 14 rebounds on 9 of 14 shooting in the team's opening night win over Sacramento. Despite winning by 29, Phoenix actually trailed at halftime in that game. But they poured it on in the second half, outscoring the Kings 70-36. The encouraging sign is that they got contributions from a variety of players, so Ayton's absence may be overblown, at least in the short-term. We're taking the points w/ the Suns tonight in Denver as this looks to be a classic oddsmakers' overreaction. 

The Nuggets also opened their season w/ a win, 108-100 at Portland as 1.5-pt favorites. Last season was a big breakthrough for Denver as they finished second overall in the Western Conference. Wednesday's opener was a big deal to them as it was a bit of revenge for being eliminated by Portland in the second round of last year's playoffs. I expect Denver to regress some in 2019-20 as it's not likely that they'll be able to match LY's amazing 13-3 SU record in games decided by three points or less. There were actually three other teams out West besides top seed Golden State that finished w/ better regular season point differentials than the Nuggets. We don't have them finishing top four in the Conference this year. 

This is a lot of points to lay, especially this early in the season. Again, you get the sense that oddsmakers had to react to the Ayton suspension. But it seems like an overreaction on this end. He'll be missed, but the Suns seem to be improved this year even w/o Ayton. His production cannot be replaced by one player obviously, but collectively the scoring slack can be picked up. One of the most encouraging signs from the first game was Phoenix holding Sacramento to 39.0% shooting. Ayton was actually a bit of a defensive liability and his replacement (Aron Baynes) is an upgrade on that end of the floor. Take the points here. 10* Phoenix

10* Over USC/Colorado (9:00 ET): These Pac 12 South rivals certainly appear to be trending in different directions. USC might only be 4-3, but we consider them to still be one of best 25 teams in America. They are coming off perhaps their finest effort of the season, a 41-14 beatdown of Arizona last weekend at the Coliseum. Meanwhile, the trajectory for Colorado is hardly ideal. The Buffaloes have lost three straight, the last two being absolute blowouts. They've allowed 30+ pts in every game this season. They are also 0-13 all-time vs. Southern Cal w/ eight of those losses coming in the L8 years as conference opponents. The Buffs should give up plenty of points again this week. But they should score plenty as well. Take the Over.

Now one thing working in Colorado's favor here is USC's winless road record. The Trojans are 0-3 away from the Coliseum this year and have given up at least 28 points in all three losses. Don't be surprised if USC notches its first road win of the season Friday night in Boulder, but they'll give up plenty of points while doing so. Colorado QB Steven Montez has not played particularly well the L2 games, but those were on the road. Despite allowing only 14 pts last week to Arizona, it's not as if the USC defense was that stout. They still gave up almost 400 yds and 22 first downs. They should feel fortunate that Arizona missed a pair of field goals, turned it over on downs inside the red zone and had three turnovers. The Over is 5-0 after the L5 times USC has allowed 20 pts or fewer. 

The bad news for Colorado is that their defense has been atrocious for 1st year HC Mel Tucker. The L3 games alone have seen them allow a total of 121 points. So Southern Cal should have little trouble moving the ball and scoring in this game. This is an offense averaging 431.6 YPG and has Kedon Slovis back at QB. Colorado is allowing over 500 YPG the L3 weeks at 7.2 yards per play. Only 13 teams in the country are giving up more yards per pass attempt for the year. USC's last five games may have all gone Under, but they've finally found an opponent conducive for an Over. In fact, this probably the weakest defense they've faced in 2019. Figuring Colorado's offense should improve at home, we've got ourselves a likely shootout Friday night in Boulder. 10* Over USC/Colorado

10* Over Astros/Nationals (8:08 ET): Both World Series games have gone Over thus far. That has to be a shock to many when you consider the caliber of starting pitchers that have taken the mound. But most surprising of all is how Washington was able to hit Houston's ferocious 1-2 combo of Cole & Verlander. The biggest shock of all is that the Nationals are up 2-0 in this series and now they get to face the struggling Zack Greinke at home. Greinke comes into to this "must win" spot for the Astros w/ a 6.43 ERA and 1.429 WHIP this postseason. At the same time, the Nats' Game 3 starts is Anibal Sanchez and he's a downgrade from the likes of Strasburg and Scherzer. Look for the Over to hit for a 3rd straight game in the 2019 World Series.

With the series shifting to D.C. that means pitchers will have to come up to bat. In retrospect, the Nationals getting to use the DH in the first two games was a huge boon to the lineup that we should have seen coming. Howie Kendrick was used in the role both games and did go 2 for 5 w/ one run scored an RBI in Game 2. But he was also hitless in four opportunities in Game 1 and that was still an Over. Washington obviously doesn't NEED a DH to score a lot of runs. During their current eight-game win streak, they've scored 50 runs including an average of more than 5.0 per game in NL parks. For the year, the Nats average 5.6 rpg at home. Of course, the Astros are no slouch offensively either. They average 5.5 runs per game overall and were at 5.0 rpg in NL parks.

Greinke's poor postseason numbers can essentially be traced back to one start, the first one which came against Tampa Bay. He allowed six runs in that start, lasting only 3 2/3 IP. We were willing to write that one off after he went six strong innings against the Yankees in Gm 1 of the LCS. But even though the Astros got the win in his second LCS start, Greinke lasted only 4 1/3 innings. Both short starts came on the road. He's allowed 5 HR's in the playoffs and walked 4 his last time out. Sanchez's two playoff starts have both been good, particularly the Game 1 effort in the NLCS where he was four outs away from a no-hitter. But he still has a 4.10 ERA and 1.307 WHIP at home. The Over is 6-2-1 in the Nationals' last nine home games. 10* Over Astros/Nationals

8* Vegas (6:05 ET): Colorado is 7-1-1 to start the year and leads the Central Division w/ 15 points. But tonight they'll venture into perhaps the most challenging venue for opposing teams in the entire NHL. That would be T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas where in just 2+ years, the Golden Knights have built one of the strongest home ice advantages in the league. Colorado has never won here in three all-time tries. In fact, the six times these two teams have met, the home team has never won period! Vegas has already lost twice at home this year, but don't expect them to here as this will be treated as a game w/ the utmost importance. 

Vegas is 7-4 SU and coming off a 2-1 win in Chicago that went to a shootout. The Golden Knights had both Wednesday and Thursday off to recover and now return home where they are 56-24-7 all-time in the regular season. That's obviously a very strong record and it also helps that Colorado has been a poor road team each of the last two years. Also, tonight's game marks the end of a six-game road trip for the Avs. They lost Monday in St. Louis, which was their first regulation loss all season. It's a trip that started out on the East Coast 11 days ago and now concludes w/ a special early start time. Tough spot. 

Making matters tougher for the Avs is the fact they won't have Mikko Rantanen. Something we've harped on in the past is that the Avs aren't a particularly deep group and instead rely heavily on the line of Rantanen-MacKinnon-Landeskog. Well, a key component from that fierce line is now gone. Rantanen set career highs in goals, assists and points last season and was tied for the team lead w/ 12 points this year. He was the only player to have at least one point in every game. So his absence is clearly significant. Given the circumstances, there won't be a more "excusable" loss for Colorado all season. 8* Vegas

10* Washington (9:05 ET): We've had some success playing on/against these teams recently and our respective reads have not changed. In the case of the Capitals, they won for us both last Friday (5-2 over the Rangers) and then again Sunday (5-3 at Chicago). They made it four straight wins for themselves Tuesday by beating Calgary 5-3. As for the Oilers, we first played against them 10 days ago in Chicago (they lost 3-1) and then again Tuesday when they were shutout by Minnesota (3-0). Those happen to be the Oilers' only two losses in regulation this season, but as we're about to get into, there are some real flaws w/ this team. Back the Caps and fade the Oilers yet again. 

So Washington has scored a total of 19 goals during its four-game win streak and has scored 4+ goals in six of its last seven games overall. So this is a team clearly "in the zone" right now. They are 5-1 on the road w/ a power play that's converting 38.9% of the time in those games (despite going 0 for 3 in Calgary). As mentioned in previous writeups, the Caps are getting their offense from a multitude of contributors right now. T.J. Oshie scored twice in that win over the Rangers last Friday, but the big story has been John Carlson's team high 20 points. Carlson had two goals and an assist against Calgary. Of course, there's that guy named "Ovechkin" that's still here as well. 

Edmonton has now been shutout in B2B games. Both were on the road. Simply returning home - where they've scored 17 goals and are 4-0 - might sound like an easy recipe to bounce back, but if only it were that simple. This is a team that has five come from behind victories already and the offensive decline from the L2 games was inevitable w/ a shot percentage that was simply unsustainable moving forward. The Oilers are actually dead last in the league in shots per game (26.9), so them maintaining a top 10 gpg average wasn't tenable. Their 7-1 start to the season should be considered a "mirage" and they haven't faced a team the caliber of the Capitals yet either. 10* Washington

10* Under Redskins/Vikings (8:20 ET): We said it last week and will reiterate it again here. Minnesota is one of the better teams in the league. Mike Zimmer's team has outgained its opponents by 1.3 yards on a per play basis and has the third best scoring differential in the league. They've been a dominant home team, winning all three games here by double digits, and have scored a total of 80 points the L2 weeks. Kirk Cousins and the offense figures to have its way Thursday night against a Washington defense that has been one of the worst in the league so far this year. 

But the Redskins' offense certainly doesn't figure to score many points this week. They certainly haven't scored many this year. Only the Jets and Dolphins have scored less this year and over the last four weeks, the Skins have scored a grand total of 27 points. That includes 17 in their lone win of the season, which was against Miami. The other three games they failed to scored more than 7. Last week in the rain, they couldn't manage any points in a shutout loss to the 49ers. With a coaching change having already taken place, things are looking rather grim in the Nation's capital right now. 

Washington's last four games have gone Under and the last three didn't have totals any higher than this one. While two of those last three games came against New England and San Francisco, the two top defensive teams in the league right now, the Skins could also manage only a field goal against a Giants' defense that is not very good. The Vikings defense isn't too far behind those of the Patriots and 49ers, statistically. But also look for the Vikings' offense to struggle a bit more than usual this week as WR Adam Theilen is out w/ a hamstring injury. With Theilen out, Stefon Diggs can't possibly match his production from the last two games where he's had 14 catches for 300+ yards. The last six meetings between the teams have all gone Over. Not this one. 10* Under Redskins/Vikings

10* Houston (7:30 ET): We lost two more unbeaten teams last week (Wisconsin, Boise State), dropping the number left nationally to 10. Among those 10 teams, SMU has to be considered one of the more surprising on the list. The Ponies have reached a level that the program has not seen since pre-"Death Penalty." This was not really expected from Sonny Dykes' team in 2019 in what should still be considered a pretty loaded West Division in the American. SMU was actually a slight dog at Arkansas State in Week 1. Since then, they've been an underdog only one other time (at TCU), yet this is the first time all season they truly feel "overvalued." 

Houston has essentially had the exact opposite season of SMU w/ numerous players electing to redshirt, leading to a very disappointing 3-4 SU record. Before the season started, it would have been considered highly unlikely that SMU would be favored in this game. Being favored by double digits would be almost inconceivable. Yet here we are. The Cougars' QB situation is something worth monitoring as Clayton Tune is expected to return and start. Tune has not been healthy since the Sept 28 vs. North Texas, which was his first start. Remember that Tune was only called into duty because D'Eriq King redshirted. UH should be a much different team w/ a healthy Tune back this week. 

SMU is now ranked #16 in the country and is the highest ranked "Group of 5" team. So they've got a target on their back now. The only game they've failed to cover was two weeks ago as a DD favorite vs. Tulsa. Off an impressive win LW over Temple w/ Memphis on deck, the Mustangs are in a prime lookahead situation against a team hungry for a win on the national stage. Two of Houston's losses have been by seven points and all four were to pretty good teams. SMU is good, but they aren't the 16th best team in the country by any means. We don't even consider them in the top 30. SMU was a 14-point dog when it faced Houston AT HOME last year. Now they are two TD favorites on the road. SMU pulled the outright upset LY too. Home team has won four straight and 7 of 8 in this Texas rivalry. This is the most points Houston has gotten at home in some time. 10* Houston

10* Under SMU/Houston (7:30 ET): We lost two more unbeaten teams last week (Wisconsin, Boise State), dropping the number left nationally to 10. Among those 10 teams, SMU has to be considered one of the more surprising on the list. The Ponies have reached a level that the program has not seen since pre-"Death Penalty." Not only are they 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS, but they are also the only team in the country to have gone Over in every game. An offense led by Texas transfer Shane Buechele is averaging 44.3 PPG, which is tied for 5th most in the country. However, don't be surprised if this Thursday game turns out to be one of SMU's lower scoring efforts of the year. Take the Under. 

Houston's season couldn't be more different than that of SMU. In his first year on the job, HC Dana Holgorsen has suffered some serious attrition w/ both QB D'Eriq King and WR Keith Corbin electing to redshirt. Even King's replacement, Clayton Tune, has been out w/ an injury. This has obviously had a serious impact on the Cougars' offense, which could only manage 24 pts last week in a win over sorry UConn. That was w/ Holgorsen's son starting at QB. Tune is expected back, which will be a boost. But don't go expecting Houston to score as much as they were back when King was under center. Before beating UConn, they could only manage 23 pts in a loss to Cincinnati. The Cougars' last four games have all seen totals lower than this one and the Over is 3-1. But the first three games all had higher O/U lines and the Under was 3-0. 

SMU has scored 40+ in every game this year since a 37-30 win over Arkansas State in Week 1 where they were actually an underdog. I already mentioned how the Over is 7-0 in their games this season. But only one, a 49-27 win over North Texas, had a higher O/U line. The Mustangs defense should do a fairly decent job in this one as we don't think the absences of King and Corbin on the other side have been properly reflected when it comes to the total. The Under is 14-5 in UH's L19 games off an ATS loss. The Under is also 5-1 the L6 meetings here in Houston. 10* Under SMU/Houston

10* Atlanta (7:05 ET): Last night saw the Pistons go into Indiana, without Blake Griffin, and upset the Pacers 119-110 as seven-point underdogs. Now Indiana was w/o Victor Oladipo as well. Griffin is out indefinitely w/ a hamstring injury. So let's see how Detroit handles his absence in the second game of a back to back. Maybe you're right to not expect much from the Hawks this year, but they should be improved after the doldrums of the past couple seasons. Plus they are rested here. Take the points. 

Atlanta is one of just four teams yet to play a game. This is a young team, save for Vince Carter (who is ironically the oldest player in the league), with 12 players at 25 years of age or younger. They added TWO lottery picks w/ De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish. After winning only 24 games in 2017-18 and 29 last season, the Hawks should improve more this year. They have covered the last three times they've played here in Detroit. They were also 23-17 ATS as an away dog last season. 

The Pistons typically have NOT been a good shooting team the last couple seasons, but did make 52.6% of their field goal attempts last night. Expect poorer shooting tonight. They were trailing going into the 4Q last night, but Luke Kennard made a trio of three-pointers down the stretch, finshing w/ 30 pts off the bench. For the game, Kennard made a career-best six three-pointers. Andre Drummond, who played 41 minutes, had 32 pts and 23 rebounds. Neither Drummond nor Kennard are likely to replicate those kind of numbers tonight. Indiana also lost T.J. Warren down the stretch last night, which was another key factor in the final result. 10* Atlanta

10* Over Kings/Suns (10:05 ET): Neither of these teams are exactly known for playing great defense. Both were bottom five in the league last year in points per game allowed. Phoenix also happened to be 29th (out of 30) in efficiency. There’s no reason to expect much improvement on that end of the floor this year, so look for a shootout here in the opener Wednesday night. Take the Over. 

Under new coach Luke Walton, look for the Kings to shoot a lot more three-pointers this season. We saw how that approach transformed Milwaukee under Mike Budenholzer last season. I’m not saying the Kings are going to be that successful, but they should score more and last year they did average 114.2 PPG. Buddy Hield was 4th in the league in 3-pointers made last season.

While Sacramento has the longest active playoff drought in the league (13 years), Phoenix has the fewest number of wins over the L4 seasons - by a pretty wide margin. They too have a new HC in Monty Williams, who has brought in a new offensive style, which should lead to increased scoring. It’s surprising that none of the four meetings last year saw more than 227 total pts scored, given the defensive ineptitude. Look for this to be a wild, up-and-down kind of game. 10* Over Kings/Suns

6* Houston (8:08 ET): Can’t see the Astros losing both games at home. The Nationals pulled the shocking upset in Game 1 by getting to Gerrit Cole for five runs, the most Cole had allowed in a start in five months. As hot as the Nats are right now (they’ve won 7 straight going back to the LDS), Houston easily could have taken the series opener were in not for leaving 11 runners on base. The fact that a 2-0 lead w/ Cole on the mound didn’t stand last night was not something we could have envisioned. Look for the home team to come back and even the series. 

Justin Verlander goes for Houston in Game 2. He’s pitched four times in the postseason, twice in each series. Interestingly, he’s won his first start of both series, only to lose the second both times. He along w/ Cole are the two AL Cy Young front-runners and the idea of a team beating them both in consecutive days seems like it would be a tall order. Like the previous two series, Verlander’s first WS start will come at home. He’s allowed just two runs in 13 ⅔ IP in the two home playoff starts so far and has 2.30 ERA and 0.848 WHIP here for the season. The Astros have gone 14-5 with him on the mound at Minute Maid Park.

Washington again counters with a strong starter of their own as Stephen Strasburg will toe the rubber. Strasburg has been very good in the postseason w/ a 3-0 TSR. He’s been lights out overall for the last month or so, but this just comes down to the fact we can’t see Houston losing B2B home games. As we saw last night, the Nationals’ bullpen remains a bit of a question mark. Houston is 65-23 at home this year and outscores its opponents by two full runs per game here. 6* Houston

10* Ottawa (7:35 ET): It may seem strange to take such a strong position on a team with the fewest points in the league right now, but the situation is right for an Ottawa win on Wednesday night. The Senators will be hosting the Red Wings, a team that’s lost five in a row and finds itself in a dreadful scheduling spot. Not only did Detroit play last night, losing 5-2 at home to Vancouver, but prior to that they were out West for a three-game trek through Western Canada. Now it’s back on the road. Look for the Sens to get the two points here. 

Ottawa is just 1-6-1, giving them only three points, which is the fewest in the league right now. They do have the same goal differential as Detroit though (-12). The Sens have lost four in a row, the last three coming out West, but now they’re at least back at home, which is where their only win of the season transpired. It came as a huge +215 ML underdog (against Tampa Bay). One area where Ottawa does seem to have a clear advantage here is between the pipes as Anders Nilsson has made 93 saves his L3 starts. The problem for the Ottawa goalies is that they are facing too many shots. But the Red Wings don’t average that many shots per game (29.2), so that shouldn’t be a problem here. 

Detroit has given up 33 goals in nine games so far. They have the 2nd worst average goals allowed per game average in the league right now. They’ve allowed 5 goals in four of the last five games while scoring a total of just seven themselves. The scheduling spot is brutal and it speaks volumes that Ottawa comes in as the ML favorite here despite having the fewest points in the league.  10* Ottawa

8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): Anyone who bought into the preseason hype of LeBron James in LA paid dearly last season as the Lakers were the second worst in the league ATS, finishing 34-46-2. Only the Knicks did a (slightly) worse job at the betting window. Now Anthony Davis is in LA, meaning the hype train has gained even MORE steam. But the Lakers aren’t even the best team in the city right now. The Clippers added Paul George and Kawhi Leonard and are one of the favorites to win the NBA Title. Remember - unlike the Lakers - the Clippers actually made the playoffs last season. The better team is getting points on Opening Night. Take the points. 

George will not play Tuesday as he is still recovering from offseason shoulder surgery. But what was the deepest bench in the league adding Leonard to the mix is more than enough to compensate. We’ve got the Clippers finishing no worse than third in the Western Conference this year as it will probably be either them or Houston finishing on top. The Lakers won’t be any better than fourth in our projections. The Clippers were 49-38-1 ATS last season, which was one of the league’s better records at the pay window. They are being undervalued here. 

It remains to be seen how well James and Davis will mesh. James missed a career-high 27 games last year and his defense began to slip rather dramatically. The Lakers aren’t nearly as deep as the Clippers either. This line jumping the fence (Clippers opened as favorites) is a pretty big deal as the Lakers were just 17-26-2 ATS as chalk last season. DeMarcus Cousins proved to be a worthless signing as he’s out for the year. Kyle Kuzma also won’t play tonight. 8* LA Clippers

6* Houston (8:08 ET): It’s nice to see Washington in the World Series for the first time. Before the season started, we predicted that - coming off an 82-win season - they would be the most improved team in MLB this year. Quite frankly, it was a little disappointing that the Nationals couldn’t beat out the Braves in the NL East during the regular season. But they’ve obviously more than made up for it w/ this run, first eliminating the heavily favored Dodgers, then sweeping the Cardinals. We felt the Nats-Dodgers series was the “real” NLCS so the Nats sweeping St. Louis was not that big of a shock to us (they were, after all, favorites to win that series). 

But for this year’s World Series, Houston comes in as the biggest favorite for any WS since 2007 when the Red Sox faced the Rockies. That series saw the favorite sweep. While the price on the Astros seems high - both for Game 1 and the series - it is justified. This is the best team in baseball and they have the strongest rotation. Plus they have the homefield advantage as well. The only thing working against Houston is the fact they are 1-9 vs. Washington since 2012. But much of that is “ancient history” as the clubs have not met since 2017.

The biggest justification for Houston being such a large ML favorite for Game 1 is them having Gerrit Cole starting. They are 16-0 in Cole’s previous 16 starts and he hasn’t lost a decision since May 22nd! Here in the playoffs, Cole is 3-0 w/ a 0.40 ERA and 0.794 WHIP. The Astros are 17-2 in Cole’s 19 starts at home this season. Not needing him for a second time in the ALCS was huge after he had to start two games in the LDS. Max Scherzer is a former Cy Young winner himself and one of the game’s best pitchers. But this is the rare instance of him NOT being the better pitcher in a head to head matchup. Remember Washington has the inferior bullpen as well. 6* Houston

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Edmonton’s 7-1-1 record is a bit misleading when you consider they had to come from behind in each of their first five victories. In one of the two they didn’t, they were outshot 52-22 (by the Flyers). Back when we faded the Oilers two Sundays ago in Chicago (that’s where they suffered their 1st loss), I called the team’s current shooting percentage a “Houdini Act” and that it wouldn’t be sustainable. I still feel that way. Despite being LAST in the league in shots per game, the Oilers are 9th in goals. They can’t keep that up. 

Minnesota is a team that happens to rank near the bottom of the league in goals per game. Not much was expected from the Wild coming into the season w/ many going so far as to project them for last place in the Central, which is the toughest division in the sport. Sure enough, they are 2-6 and have the worst goal differential (-14) in the entire league. But the Wild are coming off an OT win over Montreal on Sunday, so hopefully that creates a spark. Edmonton lost its last game in a shootout (1-0 at Winnipeg Sunday). Tonight marks just the 3rd home game for the Wild.

This play simply boils down to us still being highly skeptical of Edmonton. While 7-1-1 on the year, their other numbers don’t paint the picture of a dominant team. We played against them in their lone regulation loss so far and that’s been the only time we’ve either played on or against them so far in 2019. Remember Chicago was winless at the time. Consider tonight the next in what could be a long line of fades, unless something really changes. Minnesota’s biggest problem so far has been on the goals allowed side of the ledger. But w/ Edmonton averaging so few shots, let’s call for Wild goalie Devan Dubnyk to step up tonight. 10* Minnesota

10* Over Patriots/Jets (8:15 ET): The last time these AFC East rivals met was Week 4 and the Jets were starting a practice squad QB (Luke Falk) that isn’t even with the team anymore. Yet they managed to not only cover (were huge 3 TD underdogs), but the game went Over (barely) as well. We had the Jets and Over in that game and while the key to cashing both were TWO non-offensive scores from the Jets, it is curious that the O/U line isn’t higher for Monday night’s rematch. With Sam Darnold back at QB, the Jets are much more formidable on offense than they were with Falk. Take the Over.

We came into the season with a fairly optimistic view of the Jets. That quickly dissipated due to Darnold being sidelined with mono. But we saw what the team is capable of last week as they upset the Cowboys 24-22 as 7-point home underdogs. In his return, Darnold threw for 338 yards. Look for RB Le’Veon Bell to start being more productive as well now that Darnold is back. Again, unlike the last time they faced the Patriots, the Jets will score offensive touchdowns here. The fact that the O/U isn’t any higher for Darnold starting instead of Falk (who was TERRIBLE) is definitely perplexing to us. 

New England’s defense has been downright tremendous so far, but it should be noted that this start has come at the expense of some pretty bad teams. Also, they have been historically great on third down, nearly to the point of unsustainability. Tom Brady and the offense have scored at least 30 pts in every game but one (against a very good Bills defense), which is a trend that we can see continue here. They didn’t need to do much the last time they faced the Jets. This game should go Over much more easily as both offenses are now at full strength. The Patriots will do the heavy lifting while the Jets will score enough to “help out.” 10* Over Patriots/Jets

8* Philadelphia (8:20 ET): Coming into the year, we projected the Eagles to win the NFC East. But after three weeks, that projection wasn’t looking so hot. Philadelphia was 1-2 and Dallas was 3-0. But two weeks later, the teams were tied. Both lost last week. While the Cowboys still maintain the better YTD point differential, that’s still a byproduct of playing what was the league’s easiest schedule the first three weeks. They faced the Eli Manning-led Giants, Washington and Miami. We’re still confident in Philly winning this division and obviously so is their coach (more on that later). Take the points. 

Dallas has actually been favored in every game this year. I believe the Patriots and Chiefs are the only other teams that can say that. But after opening w/ that easy three-game stretch, they’ve lost three in a row outright, including an embarrassing setback last week at the hands of the Jets. The Jets were our Underdog POWER-SHOCKER, but even we were surprised at the relative ease with which they won that game (trailed by as many as 18!). The week prior saw the Cowboys fall behind the Packers by 28 points. Now they should be getting back both starting tackles along the O-line. However, their top two receivers are now both banged up.

Eagles’ HC Doug Pederson has all but guaranteed a victory this week. HIs team is off a terrible showing in Minnesota where they lost 38-20. But the Vikings happen to be a very good team. This is a triple revenge spot for the Eagles, who lost both meetings last season and the final one in 2017. Road underdogs have been incredible this NFL season, covering nearly two-thirds of the time, and division games have often been the best spot to take them. Furthermore, Dallas is just 2-5 ATS the L7 times it has been favored by four points or less.  8* Philadelphia

10* Washington (7:05 ET): Both of these teams have been winners for us recently. The Capitals beat the Rangers 5-2 on Friday while the Blackhawks downed Edmonton back on Monday. Washington has played a lot more games this year (9 vs. 5) than Chicago, which was the same thing as the most recent matchup against the Rangers. The Blackhawks have won B2B games since opening with three straight losses, but the Caps are better and get the job done Sunday. They are averaging 4.2 goals over the L5 games.

Washington has also won B2B games and they are getting contributions from a variety of players in the recent scoring barrage. John Carlson continues to lead the team w/ 17 points. T.J. Oshie scored twice against the Rangers, giving him six goals for the season. Of course, Alex Ovechkin is still skating as well. Between the pipes, Braden Holtby is 8-3 w/ a 2.88 GAA in 12 career starts vs. Chicago. The Caps are 48-26 when facing a team w/ a losing record.

Chicago will debut 18-year old prospect Kirby Dach tonight. That’s exciting and certainly makes the Blackhawks’ future seem promising. But they’ve still got to worry about winning in the present and that means beating a Capitals team that is just plain better right now. After opening the year in Prague, the ‘Hawks have exclusively played home games. Just don’t think they have the firepower to keep up here. Goalie Corey Crawford has lost 7 of his 10 career starts vs. Washington. The Blackhawks are 30-53 vs. .500 or better foes. 10* Washington

10* Baltimore (4:25 ET): I don’t think we’re alone in being surprised at Seattle’s 5-1 SU record. Yes, this was a playoff team last year. But after a 1st round exit, it “felt” like they would be taking a step back. The defense, once the identity of the franchise, is no longer what it once was. However, Russell Wilson is playing the best football of his career. Wilson has had a passer rating of 100+ in all six games w/ a 14-0 TD-INT ratio. He’s completing 73% of his passes at 9.0 YPA. However, I can’t shake the feeling that the Seahawks have been a bit lucky this year. All but one win, over Arizona, has been by four points or less. Take the points with Baltimore here.

Wilson isn’t the only QB gaining headlines in this matchup. The Ravens’ Lamar Jackson is proving he’s no one-year wonder. He has a completion percentage and YPA similar to Wilson. He’s also obviously a bigger running threat. Last week, Jackson ran for 152 yards (against the Bengals). That was in addition to 236 yds passing. Baltimore seems to have a pretty clear path to win a weak AFC North right now. Since beating Miami 59-10 in the opener, they’ve actually been outscored by 5 points. They too (like Seattle) have had lots of close wins. But note they did outgain the Bengals almost 2:1 last week before giving up a garbage time TD. 

Neither team’s defense is what it used to be. But Seattle is giving up 6.5 yards per play. They had to come from behind to beat a sloppy Cleveland team last week. Baltimore has gone five straight games w/o covering, but this will be just the 2nd time all season that they have been an underdog. They are 11-5 ATS L16 road games. One factor tough to quantify is this will be Earl Thomas’ return to Seattle. Expect the Ravens’ safety to come out highly motivated and play well. At the end of the day, I just can’t see Seattle going to 6-1. 10* Baltimore

10* Over Chargers/Titans (4:05 ET): Two teams scrambling for a win meet in Nashville w/ the 2-4 Chargers taking on the 2-4 Titans. Both teams have lost four of five, including two straight, since an Opening Week win. In the case of the Chargers, the decline from last year can be pinned on injuries. In the Titans’ case, there’s now some real uncertainty about Marcus Mariota as the franchise QB. In fact, Ryan Tannehill will start this game. Tennessee games, on average, have been the lowest scoring in the league at just 31.6 PPG. The last five have all gone Under. The Chargers’ last four games have all gone Under. But w/ a low total, we think this one will be different. Take the Over. 

The Titans were shutout last week (16-0 by Denver) and have just ONE offensive TD in the L10 quarters. So with a top five scoring defense, this hardly seems like an ideal candidate for an Over. But they have made a QB change as HC Mike Vrabel is looking for the dreaded “spark.” We believe Tennessee is “due” for such a spark. Also, the Over is 41-19-3 the Titans’ L63 home games vs. a team w/ a losing road record.

The Chargers w/ Philip Rivers are even more overdue for an offensive resurgence. They are tied for the league lead w/ four red zone turnovers. That means they’re missing out on potential points. They did gain nearly 350 yds last week vs. Pittsburgh, but had only 17 points. While both defenses rank high in the scoring department, they do give a fair number of yards and big plays. Los Angeles now has RB Melvin Gordon back in the fold and it’s only a matter of time before he gets going. With two teams at 5-0 Under their L5 games respectively, this just “feels” like we’re in line for the game to sneak Over a high total.  10* Over Chargers/Titans

8* Over Dolphins/Bills (1:00 ET): At the start of the year, who would have thought Buffalo would be laying more than two touchdowns in any game? Granted, we knew the Dolphins would be bad. But they’ve turned out to be HISTORICALLY bad, starting 0-5 while being outscored by 138 points. Last week was probably their “best” chance at winning a game this year as they were at home and facing Washington. Down 17-16, HC Brian Flores elected to go for a two-point conversion and the win. The ‘Fins failed to convert obviously and remain one of two winless teams in the league.

Normally, we would be wondering just how in the world Miami is going to score points in this game. But we admire Flores’ decision to turn to Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB. Fitzpatrick is the one who engineered the near comeback LW vs. Washington. A Dolphins’ offense that has managed only 42 points for the YEAR stands to score more with FitzMagic in the game as opposed to Josh Rosen. Things could also conceivably get WORSE with Fitzpatrick under center as he’s so high variance. But if he plays poorly, that likely means lots of interceptions, which will set up Buffalo to score more. No matter how Fitzpatrick plays, we like this game to go Over.

The Bills are 4-1 and off their bye. They won’t be overtaking the Patriots in the AFC East, but Buffalo is in a great position for a playoff run. They are the AFC’s only one-loss team (lost to the unbeaten Patriots). While the strength of this team is the defense, don’t be surprised to see the offense score a season-high in points this week. Every Miami opponent besides Washington has scored at least 30 pts on them.  The Bills offense runs the ball pretty well, so they’ll still move the ball when they’re (likely) up big in the 2nd half. The Dolphins have the worst run defense in the NFL. Half of Bills’ QB Josh Allen’s TD passes last year came against Miami! 8* Over Dolphins/Bills

8* Minnesota (1:00 ET): Many would argue that the Lions were “robbed” Monday night. Two BAD penalties went against them late in a 23-22 loss to the Packers. But settling for five field goals was the real culprit in a game where they were actually outgained 447-299. Refs or no refs, you can’t lose a game where you were +3 in turnovers, even w/ that difference in total yardage. This week, Detroit hosts a Minnesota team hungry for a divisional road win after losing at both Chicago and Green Bay. The Vikings are the better team here and we’ll lay the short number

While they did lose at both Soldier and Lambeau Fields, the Vikings’ other four games have all been wins by 2 TD’s or more. They’ve been an excellent home team thus far, going 3-0 and winning by an average of 18 PPG. They too should have beaten the Packers as they outgained them by a huge margin - at least on a per play basis (7.4 to 4.8!) - in a Week 2 meeting in GB. But unlike the Lions, Minnesota was done in by a -3 TO differential against the Pack. The Vikings are 4-0 SU/ATS as favorites this year and 19-8 ATS L27 in the role (22-5 SU). So when the oddmakers like Mike Zimmer’s team, they often come through. 

While a lot of criticism is thrown Kirk Cousins’ way, one thing the Vikings do very well is run the ball. They are #3 in the league at 159 YPG. On the flip side, the defense is very good at stopping the run, allowing just 91 YPG. On a per play basis, Minnesota has one of the top yardage differentials in the league right now. Most power rating systems consider this one of the top five teams in the league, including ours. On a short week and off a brutal loss, we don’t see Detroit being able to hang here. The Vikings took both meetings LY, holding the Lions to just nine points in both games. 8* Minnesota

8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): Two teams desperate for a win meet this week in Atlanta. It appears as if the old “Super Bowl loser’s curse” has afflicted the Rams, who opened 3-0, but are now 3-3. The Falcons are 1-5 SU after a BRUTAL one-point loss LW in Arizona, leaving HC Dan Quinn’s future very much in doubt. The big story coming into this game will be the new-look Rams secondary, which will have THREE new starters, including Jalen Ramsey, who was acquired in a trade w/ Jacksonville. Getting a player like Ramsey is huge, but it’s going to take awhile for this new secondary to gel. Take the points w/ an Atlanta team that is at home and desperate. 

Despite the Falcons’ poor start, QB Matt Ryan actually leads the league w/ 15 TD passes and has thrown for 300+ yards in every game. If he were able to throw for 300+ against this new Rams secondary, he’d be the first QB in NFL history to open a season w/ seven straight 300+ yd games. We think he can do it. The problem for Atlanta has been turnovers, though they’ve cut down on them in recent weeks. Remember this Rams’ defense gave up 55 pts to Tampa Bay a few weeks ago. Atlanta has scored 65 pts the L2 wks. They’ll put plenty of points on the board here.

Last week saw the Falcons lose when veteran kicker Matt Bryant missed what would have been the game-tying XP. The week prior saw them fall apart late in Houston as that 53-32 final was actually a one score game at the two-minute warning! The Rams were totally outclassed by the 49ers last week, losing 20-7 at home as their high-powered offense was held to 165 total yards. We told you to take the 49ers and will fade the Rams again here. 8* Atlanta

8* BYU (10:15 ET): Right now there are two teams in the top 20 we don't feel actually deserve to be there and they are Boise State and Arizona State. The latter is a DD dog this week at Utah, so obviously the oddsmakers have a similar view on the Sun Devils. But Boise State finds itself laying points in Provo, which isn't surprising, but does open up the opportunity for a "value pick" on BYU this week. Now the Cougars haven't been a good value each of the last three weeks, losing every game (SU and ATS) w/ the last two coming as favorites. They were actually road favorites the L2 games, so now they get to try the home dog role finally and it's one that should suit them quite well. Take the points. 

Boise State is one of 12 unbeatens we have left in College Football, so it's no surprise that they are ranked. They check in at #14 in the latest poll. For a frame of reference, we have them just outside the Top 25 in our own power rankings. Now you may recall us backing the Broncos back in Week 1 against Florida State. They won, as 6.5-pt underdogs, 36-31. But that win no longer looks as impressive (FSU just isn't that good) and they actually trailed 31-13 in the first half of that game. Since then, it's been nothing but cupcakes on the schedule. They are 5-1 ATS but a lot of the previous spreads seem low in retrospect (only -8 at home vs. Air Force?). QB Hank Bachmeier took a big hit last week against Hawaii and injured his hip. It was bad enough that he didn't play in the 2H and his status for this game is in question. That would obviously be a big loss for the Broncos. 

BYU is also dealing w/ an injury at the QB position. Jaren Hall suffered a concussion in LW's loss at USF. While concussions must be treated seriously, it seems like Hall is more likely to play than Bachmeier as the latter's injury being described as "not season ending" sounds serious. Neither side is expected to reveal who will start until close to kickoff. Nevertheless, we are on the dog here as BYU has definitely been unlucky the L2 wks (beyond the QB injury) as they outgained both Toledo and USF, only to lose both games. Both were one score games where the Cougars blew a 4th quarter lead. We'll take the points in this one as the home team is 7-2 SU all-time in this rivalry and LY saw BYU only lose by five on the blue turf (as a 13-pt dog). 8* BYU

10* Texas (7:00 ET): I can see people talking themselves into Kansas here as UT was just lost to Oklahoma in the RRR and now has to come back and lay three touchdowns. However, let's not get it twisted. This is a game the Longhorns should win big. The Horns were a little outclassed last week by OU, but we expected that and they still lost by only seven points. Their only other loss this year was also by seven, to LSU, so a pair of one-score losses to top five teams are their only blemishes. That's not bad. They remain a Top 20 team in the country while Kansas is still clearly at the bottom of the Big XII pecking order, despite having Les Miles as HC and a 24-point win over Boston College. Lay the points here. 

Texas should not have difficulty scoring points Saturday night in Austin as they are going up against a KU defense that ranks 103rd in efficiency. The Longhorns' offense is #12 in overall efficiency, led by QB Ehlinger, who has thrown for 17 touchdowns and only two interceptions. The game last week vs. Oklahoma was the 1st time all season Texas did NOT go over 400 total yards (only 310), but Kansas is giving up 444.5 YPG so far and that number gets even uglier when you factor out home games vs. Indiana State and Coastal Carolina. Coming off a conference loss, Texas has gone 5-2 ATS the last two seasons.

Kansas did shock a lot of people when it went to Chesnut Hill on a Friday night and beat Boston College by 24 points. But that performance remains an outlier on their resume. Since then the Jayhawks are 0-3, including a 37-point loss at TCU. They lost by 25 at home to Oklahoma, which was two weeks ago. Here they are coming off a bye, but also have a new OC as Les Koenning was fired after the OU game. Brent Dearmon is the replacement and he inherits an offense that is averaging (easily) a Big XII low 22 PPG. Any kind of letdown UT might normally suffer here is mitigated by the fact they'll be taking KU very seriously due to an 0-3 ATS head to head record the L3 years. That includes an outright loss in Lawrence in 2016. Kansas lost to Coastal Carolina, at home, 12-7. They had less than 160 total yds of offense in the TCU game. We have this spread at four touchdowns, not three. The Longhorns should win comfortably and cover w/ "room to spare." It was a 24-7 game last year before Kansas scored a couple "garbage time" touchdowns. So don't be fooled by that final margin. 10* Texas

8* Oklahoma State (4:00 ET): So we enter Saturday w/ 12 undefeated teams left in College Football. Obviously, by the end of the regular season there won't be nearly that many, if any, left. Of the 12 currently remaining, seven are firmly entrenched as top 10 teams (Alabama, Clemson, LSU, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin) while three others hail from the "Group of Five" (App State, Boise State, SMU), so they'll be facing "lighter" schedules. That leaves two outliers - Baylor and Minnesota. Few, if any, projected these teams to still be unbeaten by mid-October even though between the two they only have two upset victories, both as very small dogs. But they are the two "most likely" to lose between now and the end of the regular season. We'll call for Baylor's unbeaten run to end Saturday as they are slight underdogs at Oklahoma State. 

Both teams played Texas Tech their last time out. It was Baylor's turn last week and they needed 2 OT's to remain unbeaten, winning 33-30 as 10.5-point chalk. They needed a last second FG just to get into overtime. It was the Bears' third win this year by eight points or less, two of those coming in Big XII play (23-21 at home vs. Iowa St) and the other against a lousy Rice team. Tip your cap to the job Matt Rhule has done in Waco in just two seasons. His first ended with a 1-11 SU record as he inherited a total mess but then the team jumped to 7-6 last season. They're one win away from matching LY's win total. But Oklahoma State will be the toughest test they've had so far, especially w/ the game in Stillwater. Also, linebacker Clay Johnston is now done for the year (knee) and he led the defense in tackles by a wide margin.

Oklahoma State is off a bye, so the situation favors them tremendously w/ Baylor also coming off a tough 2OT game. Yes, the Cowboys did lose to Texas Tech two weeks ago, but that was in Lubbock and they turned the ball over five times. We don't consider the different head-to-head results these teams had vs. Texas Tech to be all that significant. What we do consider significant though is the fact this is just the 5th time since 2013 that a team that's 6-0 SU or better is an underdog to an unranked opponent. The previous three all lost (by at least a touchdown) and that includes a game we played LY w/ Houston against USF (won by 21). Furthermore, the Pokes are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS when unranked and favored against a Top 25 team the L10 years. This is revenge game for OSU as well as they lost 35-31 in Waco (as 6-pt chalk) last year. 8* Oklahoma State

8* Mississippi State (3:30 ET): Mississippi State has fared very poorly its last two games, losing to Auburn and Tennessee by a combined 43 points. But both of those games were on the road. Now they are back in Starkville (where they are 13-4 SU/ATS L17) and not much is being expected as they are hosting #2 LSU. Mississippi State finds itself as the "meat" smack dab in the middle of a Florida-Auburn sandwich for LSU, who might be feeling a bit too good about itself coming off last week's 14-point win over the Gators in Baton Rouge. We don't think LSU is the #2 in the country, so they're a bit overrated right now as well. Take the points. 

Now there is no denying LSU has looked very impressive so far, especially on the offensive side of the ball w/ QB Joe Burrow. But this just reeks of being a flat spot in between two games against top 15 opponents, not to mention they have the showdown w/ Alabama after that. So this is the Tigers only game against a non-Top 15 opponent in five week's time. It's on the road where they've only had to go twice and one of those was Vanderbilt. The other was Texas, an impressive win, but it only came by seven points. LSU is 4-0-2 ATS on the season, so there's probably no better time than right now to fade as the public is in love w/ them. Florida actually had more first downs last week (28-22) and it was a one-score game the entire way before LSU put things away w/ a late TD. Early in the 3Q, LSU was down 28-21. 

Mississippi State has been favored in every game except Auburn this year, so at 3-3 SU they are clearly underachieving. Turnovers have been a problem for them as they've committed 10 in the L4 games, three of those being losses. The trip to Auburn was a disaster and then in an early kickoff (Noon ET) last week they fell behind Tennessee early. As a result, oddsmakers have jacked this price up several points higher than where we feel it should be at. LSU lost here two years ago, 37-7, and was slightly outgained in LY's meeting 260-239. The last four times Miss State has been a home dog, they are 4-0 ATS, 3-1 SU w/ the only SU loss coming by 7 against Alabama (#1 at the time). Take the big number here. 8* Mississippi State

10* Miami OH (2:30 ET): Truth be told, the MAC is not very good this year. No team will challenge for the Group of Five spot in a New Year's Six bowl, so it's all down to conference pride at this point. Both Northern Illinois and Miami were not shy about taking on challenging non-conference schedules. NIU made three consecutive visits to Utah, Nebraska and Vanderbilt, all P5 foes obviously and lost all three games. Meanwhile, Miami made unsuccessful visits to Iowa, Cincinnati and Ohio State. Both teams are 1-1 in MAC play and 2-4 SU overall. But one thing they don't have in common in last week's results. Northern Illinois went to Ohio and pulled the upset, coming from behind to win 39-36 as 4.5-pt dogs. Miami lost at Western Michigan in a misleading 38-16 final. We still have the RedHawks rated as the slightly better team, so it makes sense to take them here as a home dog. 

Northern Illinois was down 11 pts at halftime last week in Athens (even w/ a blocked punt returned for a TD) and appeared headed for what would have been a fifth consecutive loss. But the Huskies quickly got back in the game w/ two scoring drives in the 3Q and were actually ahead 29-21 halfway through the 4Q. But it took a FG as time expired to pull out the outright win. It should be noted NIU's only other win this year was against a FCS team (Illinois St) back in Week 1. Winning on the conference road B2B weeks is not easy to do, but that's what NIU is looking at here. Last year, coming off a big home win over Toledo (38-15 as 3-pt chalk), the Huskies would face Miami in DeKalb and lost 13-7 as seven-point favorites. They are just 4-9 ATS off their previous 13 MAC wins. 

Miami is a very solid 17-7 SU/ATS its last 24 conference games. Despite going 6-6 (SU) overall last year, they were not invited to a bowl. So they'll need a strong finish to guarantee a postseason game this year. Last week's loss to Western Michigan was misleading in the sense that they actually outgained the Broncos despite losing by 22. It was a 21-16 game early in the 4Q despite a pick-six having gone against them. Miami has three "easy" games remaining (Kent State, Bowling Green, Akron) that they should win, but they'll need another just to be bowl eligible. This is their best shot seeing as the other two games will be on the road. They are 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS off the L6 conference losses and should get going offensively against a team giving up 33.2 PPG to FBS opponents. 10* Miami OH

9* Run Line NY Yankees (7:08 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where we are taking the Yankees +1.5. Last night, we grabbed the Astros +1.5, seeing tremendous value w/ a team that could certainly win the game "outright." Well, win is exactly what the Astros did, 7-3 and now the Yankees are on the verge of elimination. The Yanks' chances of winning this series aren't looking too good as Games 6 and 7 (if necessary) will be played in Houston. But Game 5 is still at home and we think they can stay alive, at least for another day. The Yankees losing three in a row at home would be pretty shocking.

Tonight's pitching matchup is a rematch of Game 2, won by Justin Verlander and Houston. Verlander went 6 2/3 innings, allowing just two runs on five hits, as his TSR for the year moved to 26-11. James Paxton lasted only 2 1/3 innings as the Game 2 starter for the Yankees as it was the first time since July that they'd lost a game Paxton had started. (Had been 12-0 the previous 12). Though Verlander was clearly superior to Paxton in Game 2, it should be pointed out that the Astros still won the game by only one run. Such a result would be just fine by us tonight given we're playing the run line. 

It should be noted that Verlander is not infallible. He did lose one postseason start and it was on the road. It was his second start of the series as well as Tampa Bay got to him for four runs in Game 4 of the LDS. Verlander was done after just 3 2/3 IP. You have to figure the Yankees' offense is going to produce more after a disastrous Game 4 where they went 0 for 7 w/ RISP and stranded 10 runners. Four errors didn't help matters either. The Yankees are just 4 for 27 w/ RISP in the series, stranding 33 runners. This was MLB's highest scoring offense during the regular season. With a team this talented and a pitcher the caliber of Paxton set to start, getting a +1.5 at home is too good to pass up. This is just the 5th time in the last three seasons that NY is a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. They are 59-26 at home this year. 9* Run Line NY Yankees

6* Washington (7:05 ET): In terms of workload, it's been two completely different starts to the season for these two Metropolitan Division teams. Wednesday's 4-3 win over Toronto was the Capitals' eighth game this season. Meanwhile, the Rangers have played only four games and that includes last night's 5-2 loss to previously winless New Jersey. But things are set to get a lot "busier" for the Blueshirts as they're about to play five games in eight days, including their first back to back tonight in the Nation's capital. No doubt as to who the stronger side is here and we can't say we're surprised at all to see the line get steamed up. 

Washington is 4-2-2 and has given up the same number of goals (26) that they have scored. So it's been a pretty mediocre start (by their standard). John Carlson, not Alex Ovechkin, leads the team in points (14). That's definitely not a bad thing and really not that big of a surprise either. Carlson had a career-best 70 pts last season. While it's been a pretty pedestrian start for the team, including a 1-1-2 record at home, the Caps should enter Friday's game w/ plenty of confidence seeing as they've defeated the Rangers six straight times, including a 4-0 sweep last season (three of the wins coming after regulation). They've also won 9 of the previous 10 head to head matchups. 

The Rangers have actually scored 1st in all four games this season. But after totaling 10 goals in the first two games (both wins), they've managed only three in the last two (both losses). A 4-1 win over Ottawa is the only game where they haven't surrendered at least four goals. That's a bad sign. So is the situation tonight. New York has lost 28 of the last 36 times they've had to play a game w/o rest. They are also 6-21 SU their L27 times coming off a loss by 3+ goals. They are 5-16 SU their L21 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200. The trends, the situation and talent all favor one side here and that's who we're (obviously) going with. 6* Washington

10* Syracuse (7:00 ET): We've played against Syracuse two times this season w/ very differing results. The first will likely end up as our easiest winner of the year as we went w/ Maryland, a pick 'em, and they beat the 'Cuse 63-20. A week after the Orange had been squeezed by Clemson (lost 41-6), we faded them again, this time as a short favorite here in the Carrier Dome. The opponent was Western Michigan, but the Cuse won 52-33, a game that was much closer than that score. Dino Babers' team is now 3-3 SU overall, losing all three times it has been a dog. They're a HOME dog Friday night vs. Pitt and this looks like a good spot to jump on board. Take the points. 

Pitt is 4-2 SU, but has actually been favored in one game vs. a FBS opponent. So Pat Narduzzi has his team overachieving w/ upsets of UCF and Duke. They also played Penn State tough, in Happy Valley, losing by just a TD. But they also only beat Delaware by three (17-14) at home. So good luck figuring this team out the rest of the way. Key to the close call vs. Delaware was the fact QB Kenny Pickett did not play (hurt his shoulder vs. UCF). Also, six other starters sat out that game. The Panthers came in at "full strength" for their last game against Duke and took a 26-3 lead early in the 2H. But they proceeded to blow all of that 23-point advantage and needed a last minute FG to secure the 33-30 win as 3-pt underdogs. Six Duke turnovers were crucial to the Panthers winning as well. 

Pitt's offense has certainly struggled at times. They've topped 20 points just two times. That won't be enough to win a second ACC road game in as many weeks, let alone cover. The Panthers have had 13 days off since beating Duke while Syracuse lost last Thursday to NC State. The Orange offense took awhile to get going last week, but was up against a good defense. This is the fourth home game in five weeks for Syracuse, so that counteracts the extra time Pitt has had to prepare. At 0-2 in ACC play (Pitt is 1-1), the Orange are going to come out desperate in what is a revenge game for them after losing 44-37 in overtime at Heinz Field last year. 10* Syracuse

10* Over Marshall/Fla Atlantic (6:30 ET): FAU started the season w/ a couple of treacherous games against Ohio State and Central Florida. They obviously lost both, but what's interesting there is they actually stayed closer on the road against the Buckeyes (lost by 24) than they did at home vs. UCF (lost by 34). The Owls' game w/ Ohio St actually is tied for the Buckeyes' slimmest margin of victory all season. Since opening 0-2, FAU has battled back w/ four consecutive wins, one of them being our #1 NCAAF Play for September, a 45-27 win at Charlotte where they were just a 1-pt favorite. That was the Owls' third straight game scoring 40+ points, but last week was a much more low-scoring affair w/ Middle Tennessee as they "only" won 28-13. Look for Lane's crew to get back on track offensively here. Take the Over. 

Marshall is coming off a 31-17 win over Old Dominion. That was one of the higher scoring efforts of the year from the Thundering Herd, who have now topped 30 pts in a game three times, all in Huntington. If one were to simply look at the final score from their last road game (at Middle Tennessee), one might reasonably conclude that the offense "forgot to show up" in Murfreesboro. However, the Herd actually gained 578 yards total offense in that game, only to be undone by four costly turnovers. Last week, the offense rolled up 444 more yards, which was the 4th time in 6 games they've hit that threshold in 2019. Similarly, Doc Holliday's defense has had its ups and downs. They held ODU to just 206 yds last week, but before that had been torched for 400+ yds by every other FBS opponent on the schedule.

Even with the O/U line already being bet up a bit, by kickoff, this still figures to be the lowest for any Florida Atlantic game this year against a FBS team. Before LW's game vs. MTSU, every FAU game had seen a minimum of 59 pts scored. QB Chris Robison had thrown for 300+ yards in four straight games before facing MTSU. But fortunately he was bailed out by a rushing attack that went for 200+ yards for a second straight week. Marshall's PPG average is misleading when you consider they are actually 4th in C-USA in total offense. Similarly, the FAU defense have been "bend but don't break" as they are 12th in the 14-team conference in yards allowed. We look for somewhat of a shootout Friday night in Boca Raton. 10* Over Marshall/Florida Atlantic

10* Denver (8:20 ET): All of a sudden, the Chiefs look vulnerable as they've dropped B2B games. In both losses the offense was held below 26 points, which was a threshold they had crossed in EVERY game with Patrick Mahomes as the starting QB. You have to wonder if a sprained ankle Mahomes suffered back in Week 1 is starting to be a contributing factor to the "offensive decline." The Colts held the Chiefs to just 13 points in a pretty shocking upset two weeks ago while Mahomes and company (didn't have the ball much in the 2H) could only manage 24 in a loss LW to the Texans. Both losses were at home. The "world" figures to be on KC here. But the Broncos are going to be just as motivated, if not more so, trying to snap a seven-game losing skid in this AFC West rivalry. Take the points. 

Denver's season has taken the exact opposite trajectory of KC's. They started w/ four straight losses, but have since won B2B games for 1st year HC Vic Fangio. We were on the first, calling it a "must-win" against the Chargers and Denver delivered w/ a 20-13 upset as 6.5-point dogs. Last week was a 16-0 shutout of the Titans as the defense stepped up big again. The Broncos have played better than you might think for a team that started 0-4. They've led going into the fourth quarter each of the last three weeks and two of their four losses came on last second FG's at home. Their record easily could be 4-2 right now. Note the Broncos have outgained opponents by almost 30 YPG this year. After forcing zero turnovers the first four weeks, the defense has SIX the last two. They've also allowed the 4th fewest YPG (307.8) on the year and have scored the same number of points that they have allowed 

While the ankle injury may have originally occurred in Week 1, Mahomes definitely re-aggravated it in the game vs. Indianapolis two weeks ago. The Chiefs' offense hasn't looked the same since. The offensive line has struggled both in the run game and pass protection. Mahomes' completion percentage the L2 weeks were his two lowest of the season. Then there is the issue of the Chiefs' defense, which wasn't good last year and has now given up 180+ yards rushing four straight games. To beat Kansas City, you need to own the line of scrimmage (like Indy did) and we think Denver is capable of doing just that. The L3 seasons have seen the Broncos go a perfect 4-0 ATS as a home dog of three points or less w/ three outright wins. 10* Denver

10* Over Astros/Yankees (8:08 ET): All three previous games in this series have stayed Under, but it's only a matter of time before BOTH offenses get going at the same time. The Yankees' lineup produced some historic numbers in the regular season, most notably belting 300+ HR's (which had NEVER been done before). They scored the most runs in all of baseball (943), averaging 5.8 per game. After scoring 30 times in their first four playoff games (all wins), they've been held to only three in the last two (both losses). But tonight they're facing Zack Greinke, who has struggled so far this postseason and there's likely an "offensive awakening" for the team wearing pinstripes. Take the Over. 

Also expect Houston to see its offensive numbers start to go up as this series wears on. Despite scoring only seven runs in the three games so far, they lead the series 2-1, largely thanks to Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. But this lineup wasn't far behind the league-leading Yankees in the regular season (3rd in runs scored) and comes in averaging 5.6 rpg. In the seven regular season meetings w/ the Yankees, the Over went 5-2. Now they do have to face Masahiro Tanaka tonight and his 1.32 career postseason ERA ranks 3rd all-time. He shut the Astros out in Game 1, but expect better success for them here in Game 4. 

This is a rematch of the pitching matchup from Game 1 w/ Greinke taking on Tanaka. As mentioned above, Greinke has struggled so far in the postseason, allowing a total of nine runs in 9 2/3 IP. He's also given up five home runs. Uncharacteristic, but he did have some bad starts in the regular season. Greinke has faced the Yankees three times this year and has a 2.89 ERA in those games. But his career ERA vs. NY is 5.05. A big key for the Astros here will be late in the game. The Yankees' bullpen has NOT performed up to par in this series, yet teams hit .309 against Tanaka this year his third time through the lineup. So a decision will have to be made in the latter innings and either way it could work to Houston's advantage. The Over is 7-3 in the Yankees' L10 playoff home games. 10* Over Astros/Yankees

7* Run Line Houston (8:08 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Astros +1.5. This is a rematch of the pitching matchup from Game 1 w/ Zack Greinke taking on Masahiro Tanaka. The first time around saw Tanaka and the Yankees prevail 7-0. It would be easy to look at that final score and say "Greinke struggled again," but that's not really the case. He gave up three runs in six innings, which by definition is a quality start. Now the five home runs he's allowed in two playoff starts is a bit alarming. But the opportunity to get Greinke +1.5, something that happened only FIVE times during the regular season, seems too good to pass up.

This will actually be Greinke's third time going head to head w/ Tanaka in 2019. He and the Astros have come out on the losing end of the previous two, which includes a July 31st matchup here at Yankee Stadium. That was one of the five times in the regular season you could have taken Greinke +1.5 as  he was a dog on the money line. The Astros lost 7-5. But the three previous times you would have cashed a winning ticket. Greinke didn't pitch poorly in that July 31st start either, allowing just two runs in five innings. In fact, in three starts vs. the Yankees this season, Greinke has allowed just six runs in 18 2/3 IP (beat them back on April 30th). Greinke's third time facing Tanaka could be the charm. 

We came into this series believing the Astros were the better team and here they are w/ a 2-1 series lead. Yesterday's rainout will allow for Houston to trot out its three stud starters all in a row again for Games 4 through 6, if need be. There seems to be a mentality that the Yankees "have to have" this one as Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are looming. That's probably true, especially because a loss tonight puts the Yanks in a 3-1 hole. But that doesn't mean they WILL win. At no point this year has Houston lost three straight Greinke starts all by more than one run. Five of the 14 times they lost w/ him starting this year have been one-run games. We're willing to bank the Astros do no worse than a one-run loss here. 7* Run Line Houston (+1.5)

8* Montreal (7:05 ET): The Wild are struggling mightily right now as they've opened 1-5 SU. The end of a three-game swing through Eastern Canada is probably NOT the time we'll see them "get right," even though this happens to be an opponent they have defeated NINE straight times. That nine-game losing streak is probably not lost on those in the Habs' locker room as they too are looking to bounce back from a loss. Hosting Tampa Bay, the Canadiens lost 3-1 Tuesday even though they had a 34-22 edge in shots on goal. This being their fourth consecutive home game, the spot is so much better for Montreal here and they're playing w/ some serious revenge to boot. 

For a team that's lost four of its first six games, the Canadiens have played better than you might think. They've only been outscored by two goals. Their first two losses both came past regulation and were on the road. Finishing this homestand w/ a .500 record would seem imperative as they'll hit the road twice this weekend, including a rematch in Minnesota. The goals allowed side of the ledger has been a bit of a problem so far for the Habs w/ them allowing at least three goals in every game. But here they'll be facing one of the league's lowest scoring teams (just 14 goals in six games). Only one time has the Wild scored more than twice in a game this year and they lost 7-4.

Other than their one win, which was 2-0 over an Ottawa team that is really bad, Minnesota has had major issues stopping their opponents from scoring. In five losses this year, they've allowed 25 goals. Not sure what HC Bruce Boudreau is doing sitting some of his key forwards in every game. What we do know is this Montreal losing streak to Minnesota dates back to December 2014. It's not like the Wild have been substantially better these last five years, so really the head to head streak makes little sense. Look for the Habs to snap in tonight. 8* Montreal 

10* Over South Alabama/Troy (8:00 ET): South Alabama has not done much scoring in recent weeks. They've managed a total of only 43 points the L4 games, all of which have stayed Under. The Jaguars have hung tough in losses to the likes of Nebraska (35-21), LA Monroe (30-17) and Ga Southern (20-17), covering the spread in all those games. But still, their only win was against a FCS team (37-14 over Jackson State). The last time we saw USA, it was a play for us (+10) vs. Ga Southern. They covered the entire game before eventually losing in double overtime. This Wednesday matchup w/ Troy should at least lead to an increase in scoring, taking into account Troy's full body of work. Take the Over.

Troy's last two games have both been losses and they've given up 92 points in them. Before we go dismissing last week's effort as a product of facing Missouri (allowed 42 points), realize that they allowed 50 the previous week to Arkansas State and that was here at home. There was another game where they allowed 47 (to Southern Miss). If you take out games against Campbell (FCS) and Akron (worst team in FBS?), then the Trojans' defense has given up an average of 46.3 points and 542 yards per game. Missouri actually scored and gained less than both Southern Miss and Arkansas State did. On the bright side, Troy did score at least 35 points in every game before facing Mizzou. They hit 485 total yards each of those first four games. 

So it's pretty reasonable to expect Troy to go back to scoring a ton of points this week now that they're not up against a SEC defense. South Alabama's defense is allowing 400 YPG and that number goes way up if you take out the first two games. They've allowed 30+ pts in four of their six games. Something about that Troy-Missouri game that needs to noted is that Troy allowed all 42 pts in the first half! Mizzou QB Kelly Bryant got hurt on the final throw of the 1H and the Tigers did nothing offensively (didn't have to) coming out of the break. So there is hope for the struggling USA offense in this one. Troy also saw its starting QB go down in the Missouri game, but the backup (if needed here) has appeared in three games this year, so he's game-tested. 10* OVER South Alabama/Troy

10* Under Predators/Knights (10:05 ET): Vegas is looking like one of the league's better teams in the early going, which was expected. They are our call to win the Pacific Division this year and they've started 4-2 w/ 24 goals scored. The season started w/ a home and home sweep of rival San Jose, followed by two straight losses to Boston and Arizona. But the Golden Knights have bounced back w/ convincing wins over Calgary and Los Angeles where they notched 11 goals. Whether or not the team is successful tonight vs. Nashville remains to be seen, but we like the goal scoring pace to slow down a bit here. Take the Under. 

The Preds are perennially one of the better teams in the Western Conference. They won the Central Division LY, but were then unceremoniously bounced in the 1st round of the playoffs by Dallas. This year has seen them start 3-2, but the "real story" is how high-scoring the games have been as all five have seen at least seven total goals scored. Their last one resulted in a 7-4 loss to the Kings. The Over is now 5-0 in all Nashville games this season, a trend worth noting as it's likely to come to an end a lot sooner rather than later. Vegas is often a difficult place for the visiting team to score, so tonight seems like just as good a spot as any for the Predators to see their first Under of the 2019-20 campaign. 

This will be Nashville's 4th ever venture into Sin City and the previous results demonstrate what we were talking about earlier, that being it's hard to score when you're visiting here. The Predators have managed just three goals in the three previous trips here. But the big issue for Nashville right now has been the goaltending as they have an overall save percentage of .861, which is 29th out of 31 teams. That'll improve over time w/ Pekka Rinne between the pipes. Vegas has one of the top save percentages in the league (.928) as Marc-Andre Fleury stopped 69 of the 74 shots he saw in the L2 games. One area where the Knights will regress is the power play, which was a perfect 3 for 3 against the Kings. That will be difficult, if not impossible, to repeat. 10* Under Predators/Knights

analysis 10* Houston (4:05 ET): The Astros have a luxury no other team has and that's three aces in the starting rotation. While Zack Greinke has started twice and failed this postseason, it's been just the opposite for Cy Young contender Gerrit Cole, who was 2 for 2 in the LDS vs. Tampa Bay. Cole started Games 2 & 5 of that series and allowed just ONE run in 15 2/3 IP. This is nothing new for him as his TSR the L15 starts is 15-0 and he hasn't actually lost a decision since right before Memorial Day. It's been just ridiculous as Cole has 11 straight outings w/ 10+ K's and in the last seven he has an ERA of 0.87 and a WHIP of 0.60. No way we're betting against him, even in Yankee Stadium. We like the Astros in this series anyway. 

If Cole doesn't win the Cy Young, it will be teammate Justin Verlander that does. Verlander started in the Astros' Game 2 victory and held the Yankees in check, allowing just two runs in 6 2/3 innings. Of course, it took 11 innings for Houston to win the game, but win they did (by score of 3-2) thanks to Carlos Correa's walkoff HR. Cole has faced the Yankees only one time in 2019 and it was back in April. He allowed 3 runs in 7 IP and the Astros got the 6-3 win. If you're worried about him having to pitch at Yankee Stadium, don't be. Surprisingly, the Yankees average FEWER runs per game at home than they do on the road. 

The Astros have won 80% of Cole's starts this year, which is really impressive when you consider he's started 35 times. The Yankees have won 75% of Luis Severino's starts, but he's only started four times. Severino, the Game 3 starter, threw four shutout innings against the Twins in the LDS. He's yet to go more than 5 innings this year. Like Game 2 was, this will be another instance of the Yankees turning to the bullpen as needed while the Astros will ride their starter. As impressive as the Yankees' bullpen (and offense) can be, we still trust Cole more. The Astros are 21-5 this season when playing w/ a day off. Look for them to go up 2-1 in the series. 10* Houston

9* Chicago (8:35 ET): We're looking at a couple of very different starts to the season here w/ the Oilers and Blackhawks. Edmonton is 5-0, one of three remaining unbeatens in the league (Buffalo, Colorado). That's not something we saw coming as the Oilers finished w/ just 78 and 79 pts respectively the L2 years, putting them near the bottom of the Western Conference. It seems like forever ago that this team had its breakout campaign (103 pts in 2016-17) as superstar Conor McDavid had almost been toiling in obscurity, wasting his best years on a non-contender. Maybe this year is going to be different? Regardless, we're fading Edmonton tonight in a must-win spot for the opponent. 

The Blackhawks are 0-2-1. They join New Jersey and Minnesota as the only three teams in the league yet to have tasted victory this season. The reason for Chicago having played only three games so far is that they opened the season in Prague (Czech Republic). They had a full five days off before they played again and obviously still haven't won. But all three losses have been by one goal, including an OT defeat at the hands of Winnipeg Saturday. Since losing 4-3 to the Flyers in Prague, it's been B2B losses here at home. The home opener against San Jose saw the Blackhawks blow a 1-goal advantage FOUR times before eventually losing 5-4. The overtime loss to the Jets was even worse as they wasted an early 2-0 lead, which included a short-handed goal. 

It speaks volumes that a winless team is favored to beat an undefeated one, even on home ice. Furthermore, we've seen the ML get steamed up. So Chicago definitely appears to be the "sharp" side in this Monday night matchup. Most bettors (rightfully) seem a bit wary of the Oilers at this point. One thing is for certain and that's they're not going to be able to maintain a 17.1 shooting percentage moving forward. Averaging 4.4 goals on just 25.8 shots per game is a real "Houdini act" if you know what we mean. Also, Edmonton has had to come from behind in all five wins! Both Chicago goaltenders have a good history when facing the Oilers. 9* Chicago

10* Green Bay (8:20 ET): Believe it or not, the Lions have won and covered all four games vs. the Packers the L2 seasons. Of course, those weren't particularly great years for Green Bay. Two years ago, Aaron Rodgers missed a large chunk of the season and the team went just 7-9 SU. Last year proved to be the swan song for former HC Mike McCarthy who was shown the door after a 6-9-1 SU finish, which was one less win than the previous year despite having Rodgers the entire time. But 2019 just "felt" like it might be different. With Matt LaFleur now in charge, we were relatively high on the Packers coming into the season and sure enough, they've raced out to a 4-1 SU start and lead the NFC North. They've already picked up key division wins over the Bears and Vikings. Now they face the Lions, who are a surprising 2-1-1 and off a bye. We don't have any doubt who the better team is here. Some nice line value now thanks to the move. Lay the short number. 

The week before the bye saw the Lions lose a tough one to the Chiefs, 34-30. Maybe that's why some bettors seem interested in them this week. But despite playing KC tough for four quarters, we still have our doubts about the long-term success of this Detroit team. The defense is giving up over 400 YPG, which is something that only five other teams can say. They really struggle against the pass, giving up 280.8 YPG through the air, which ranks 30th and could obviously be a problem facing the likes of Rodgers, who has had some big MNF games in the past. Rodgers comes into tonight w/ a streak of four straight MNF games w/ 300+ yards passing. A big reason the Lions struggle against the pass is they don't rush the QB all that well.

Both teams have played mostly close games. In fact, all four Detroit games have been decided by 4 pts or less. But Green Bay's performance last week was more impressive than anything Detroit has done this season. The Packers led Dallas by as many as 28 as they moved to 4-1 SU and ATS. They ended up beating the Cowboys by 10. Green Bay's only loss this year was their last home game, a Thursday night matchup w/ Philadelphia where the offense still gained nearly 500 total yards. Where the spread is now, oddsmakers are basically saying these teams are even w/ the Pack getting credit for being at home. We'd have GB favored by 3.5 on a neutral field, so there's definitely value taking them at this number at Lambeau. 10* Green Bay

6* Run Line St. Louis (7:38 ET): Please note this is a run line play where we are backing the Cardinals +1.5. A starter the caliber of Jack Flaherty getting 1.5 runs seems like a nice deal even having to lay this much juice. Ironically, we took the +1.5 against Flaherty when he started Game 2 of the LDS vs. Atlanta. Though he pitched well in that game, giving up only three runs in seven innings, the Cardinals lost 3-0. But Flaherty didn't even need to pitch well in his 2nd LDS start. That's because by the time he threw his first pitch, he had been handed a historic 10-0 lead! That was Game 5, which the Cards went onto win 13-1. For the record, Flaherty still did his part by giving up just one run and four hits in six innings. We'll back him here via the run line. 

Flaherty has certainly done his part down the stretch for St. Louis. He's given them 10 consecutive quality outings. During that time, he's allowed just 11 runs and 37 hits w/ 85 K's (only 12 walks). It's not often you get the opportunity to take a pitcher of this caliber +1.5. Now Flaherty is being opposed by Stephen Strasburg, who is in the midst of his own dominant stretch. But Flaherty does have a lower ERA and WHIP than Strasburg over the course of the entire season. Washington was the favorite coming into the series and is obviously now in an even stronger position after taking the first two games in St. Louis. Were the Nats to lose here, we'd strongly consider backing them in Game 4. But for Game 3, we're willing to say they won't win by more than one run. 

This is the second time St. Louis has lost B2B games in these playoffs. The first time was Games 2 & 3 vs. Atlanta. We then backed them in Game 4, which they won in extra innings. They've lost three in row just twice since the All-Star Break and the only team to beat them three in a row was the Dodgers (all in LA). We agree w/ the notion of Washington being favored in this series, but Flaherty +1.5 is too good to pass up. Obviously, the Cardinals are going to have to discover some offense. Assuming they do, advantages in fielding and in the bullpen should be enough to carry them to a Game 3 victory. At the very least, they'll lose by only one run. By the way, Washington has scored only five runs in two games. 6* Run Line St. Louis (+1.5)

9* San Jose (10:05 ET): Terrible spot for Calgary tonight. It's not just the second game of a back to back (lost 6-2 in Vegas last night), but also their third road game in four nights. It's not been a great start for the club that had the most points in the Western Conference last year. Not surprised by that; they were expected to regress some. Because it's the second night of a B2B, the Flames have to go w/ a backup goalie for the first time this year. It's Cam Talbot, who signed a one-year deal in the offseason. The former Oilers' netminder wasn't particularly effective last year, turning in an .889 save percentage. He was 11-17-3 in 30 starts. 

San Jose started 0-4, but was able to notch two points w/ a 5-4 win over Chicago Thursday. Credit the return of Patrick Marleau, who had missed the first four game. Marleau, who is in his second tour of duty here in San Jose, scored twice. It was a rusty Blackhawks team the Sharks were facing Thursday as Chicago had not played since opening its season in Prague. Now its a very different situation for the opponent, who is playing w/o rest. Yet both situations are conducive to the Sharks winning. They are 6-2 the L8 times hosting Calgary and not all those games were a situation as good as this. 

This is only San Jose's second home game. The first was a loss to Vegas, something they can converse about w/ Calgary, who just lost to the Golden Knights last night. It was not a strong 60 minutes of hockey, which should be apparent from the final score of 6-2. It was the third time in five games that the Flames surrendered at least four goals. San Jose isn't as bad as it looked the first four games and having Marleau back is huge. 9* San Jose

8* Pittsburgh (8:20 ET): It's been nothing short of a disastrous start to the season for the Steelers, who are down to their third string QB Devlin Hodges, an undrafted player from a FCS school It's not like Hodges didn't succeed in College. He was actually the Player of the Year in 2018 as he finished his four-year career at Samford w/ the most passing yards in FCS history! Don't be surprised if the Steelers' offense actually ends up performing better with Hodges operating under center. Mason Rudolph obviously wasn't the answer, yet I thought the Black & Gold actually performed admirably in LW's 26-23 OT loss to Baltimore. That was the Steelers' third loss by four points or less. So they've been a competitive team. Take the points Sunday night. 

We faded the Chargers last week as well. They were laying a similar spread to winless Denver and lost outright, 20-13. The offense turned the ball over three times and gained only 246 total yards. While Philip Rivers will be making his 214th consecutive start (213 more than Hodges) and RB Melvin Gordon is back, the Chargers are far from full strength right now. TE Hunter Henry might return. But four of the five offensive lineman have three or less years experience and there's a new center. There are just a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball for this team. Turnovers have been a problem as they have 2+ in three of five games. The Chargers' only win in regulation this year came against Miami. 

With injuries to the receivers, Rivers averaged just 4.4 yards per completion last week. Again, the Miami game was the only one where the LA offense scored more than 24 pts in regulation. So they're a shaky favorite in this spot. Pittsburgh's defense has allowed just 175 and 277 total yards the last two games. Hodges is obviously a total Wild Card entering this game, but we're willing to bank he's no liability. Incredibly, QB's making their first career start this year are a perfect 7-0 ATS! The Steelers are 6-1-1 ATS as an underdog the L2 seasons and it's not like the Chargers have any kind of real homefield advantage. They are just 6-12-1 ATS at home since returning to LA. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Houston (8:08 ET): Homefield advantage certainly wasn't enough to save the Astros last night as they fell 7-0 to the Yankees here at Minute Maid Park. In our Game 1 analysis, we'd hyped that advantage as being pretty significant, but Houston simply could not put anything together at the plate (just three hits for the game) and the Yankees poured it on late. Thankfully, another advantage the Astros have is their tremendous starting pitching. They can now turn to Justin Verlander for Game 2, which of course is still at home. We don't see the Astros suffering the same fate as the Cardinals over the NLCS, that being losing both games at home. Home team bounces back tonight.

Verlander is one of the co-favorites for the AL Cy Young, along w/ teammate Gerrit Cole (who is slated to go in Game 3). So despite the disappointment of losing Game 1, the Astros are by no means "down and out." Verlander is 22-7 this season (36 starts) w/ a 2.66 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. He started twice in the LDS vs. Tampa Bay and was a -230 favorite both times. Unfortunately, he lost the second time, which was on the road. He lasted only 3 2/3 IP and gave up four runs. He was on short rest too. But we see him bouncing back from that. In Game 1 of the LDS, here at home, Verlander tossed seven shutout innings of one-hit ball. Two years ago in the ALCS, Verlander won both of his starts against the Yankees and posted a 0.56 ERA. He's made six career postseason starts vs. the Yankes and never lost one (4-0), posting a 2.33 ERA w/ 41 K's. 

By the way, last night was just the 5th time all season that the Astros were shutout and first since June. They're 3-1 off the previous four, allowing a total of just six runs in those games. They are also still 63-22 at home this year. The Yankees will turn to James Paxton, who has a 12-0 TSR since the start of August. But despite that tremendous amount of team success, Paxton is in no way as dominant as Verlander, at least over the long-term. On the road, he has a 4.33 ERA and 1.403 WHIP. His lone LDS start in the sweep of the Twins came at home. Paxton is accustomed to pitching in this ballpark due to his time spent in Seattle, but he also allowed five runs in just 4 IP his lone appearance here w/ the Yankees (that was back in April). All signs point to the Astros bouncing back tonight. 10* Houston

8* NY Jets (4:25 ET): Our preseason projection on the Jets has been downgraded severely, but the main culprit for the team's poor play these first four games has obviously been the QB situation. That changes this week w/ the return of Sam Darnold. The 2nd year signal caller has missed the L3 games w/ mono and the results have been nothing short of disastrous. The Jets have been outscored 84-23 while scoring just ONE offensive touchdown! The one game Darnold did start was the opener vs. Buffalo and that's a game the Jets "should have" won (lost by 1) as they led 16-0 and forced four turnovers. They may not win this week, but Darnold will have them competitive. Take the points. 

Things were looking great for Dallas through three weeks as they opened the season 3-0. But while the offense was putting up nice looking numbers, that had just as much to do w/ whom they were facing. It was the Eli Manning-led Giants, Washington and Miami. The latter two both remain winless and are a combined 0-9 SU. Since then, the Cowboys have suffered B2B upsets at the hands of New Orleans and Green Bay. The offense scored only 10 pts in New Orleans and then turned it over three times LW vs. Green Bay. Even though it ended up being a 31-24 final, the Cowboys initially trailed the Packers 31-3. It's hard to win in this league by more than a TD on the road. We're willing to bank Dallas fails to do so here. 

Darnold may not be an All-Pro, but the upgrade from third-stringer Luke Falk is massing. Remember that backup Trevor Siemian broke his leg in the second game. The two games Falk started - the Jets gained just 233 yards total! RB Le'Veon Bell was rendered a non-factor as opposing defenses did not have to fear the pass. With Darnold back, that changes. On defense, the Jets are obviously going to have to be focused on stopping the run as they get set to face Ezekiel Elliot. Fortunately, they are giving up just 3.4 yards per carry and 87 yds rushing per game. The Jets won't lose 'em all this year, as with Darnold this projected to be a competitive team. 8* NY Jets

8* Tennessee (4:25 ET): Picking Titans' games have been a challenge this year, but we've tried 'em all - to mixed results. The one constant has been the underdog winning all five games outright. Last week was not a good result for the Titans or us as they lost outright as home favorites to Buffalo. Facing a very good Bills' defense, Tennessee simply could not get anything going on offense as they gained only 252 yards in a 14-7 loss. But key was missing FOUR field goals. Kicker Cario Santos was quickly jettisoned after the loss and replaced ironically by Cody Parkey, who gained infamy for his own poor kicking effort in last year's playoffs w/ the Bears. Despite what happened last week, Tennessee is still a pretty good team and should not be getting points against 1-win Denver. 

The Broncos got their first win under HC Vic Fangio last week, beating the Chargers on the road 20-13. We took them as underdogs, noting it was probably time for them to "get off the schnide" and that's what happened as they held on after a fast start. It was 14-0 after the 1st quarter and three Chargers turnovers definitely aided in the upset win. But we'd remain leery of Denver as a favorite, a role which they've been in twice and lost both games outright. Joe Flacco is definitely not the long-term answer at QB, nor do we think he's a good short-term option either. Look for the Broncos offense to struggle here against a top five scoring defense.

The last time Tennessee were road dogs, we grabbed them and they turned in a dominant effort at Atlanta, winning that game 24-10. They are 2-0 SU/ATS as road dogs having also won the season opener in Cleveland. The Tennessee offense hasn't been great so far, but they don't turn the ball over and Denver's secondary continues to be banged up. The Titans have turned it over just once, tying a NFL record through five games. Denver's defense hadn't forced any turnovers prior to last week. Turnovers can certainly be a fluent situation, but history suggests the Broncos won't win that battle. They more than likely don't win this game either. The last three seasons have seen Denver go 4-13 ATS as a favorite including 0-5 as home chalk of three points or less.  Take the points. 8* Tennessee 

10* San Francisco (4:05 ET): The situation may not favor the 49ers here as they are coming off a Monday Night game and the Rams played last Thursday. But we believe them to be better team this year. Before you go accusing us of being "prisoners of the moment," note we were high on this 49ers team from the start. Back in Week 2, we took them in Cincinnati and told you to expect a surprisingly good season. They are now one of only two unbeatens left (Patriots) and ranked #2 overall in our power ratings. Take the points here as the Niners look to make another "statement." 

While the 49ers are ascending, the Rams look to be regressing. Last year's Super Bowl losers started 3-0 but have subsequently lost two straight games while giving up 85 points. The 55-40 loss to Tampa Bay (as 9-pt home favorites) was the real eye-opener. Note San Francisco held the Bucs to only 17 points (on the road) in an opening week victory. Last Thursday, the Rams lost 30-29 up in Seattle in a hard-fought game. Something you need to continue monitoring is the health of RB Todd Gurley. Gurley was effective in the 1st half last week when the Rams had the lead. But then he (again) vanished in the 2nd half as the game got away. Health is a concern and Gurley is listed as doubtful this week. On the defensive side of the ball, CB Aqib Talib is out. 

Something we want to make clear is that this potential "changing of the guard" in the NFC West is something we saw coming. All the metrics indicated across the board improvement for San Francisco this year. One was turnover differential Their defense intercepted only TWO passes the entire 2018 season. They've already intercepted SEVEN this year (in just 4 games!), which is tied for 2nd most in the league. Meanwhile, the Rams were lucky to be 6-1 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less in 2018. Last year, the 49ers defense gave up 88 points in two games against the Rams. That same defense has yet to allow more than 320 yards in a game this season. On offense, SF is battling a couple key injuries of their own (expect TE George Kittle to play). But they still have the top rushing attack in the league (over 200 YPG) w/ three different backs averaging at least 5.5 YPG. Since 2003, teams that are 4-0 SU or better and getting points have gone 15-8-1 ATS including four straight covers. 10* San Francisco 

10* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Teddy Bridgewater's chances of earning a big payday as a starter in this league have probably passed. But he's definitely earned a nice ROI for anyone that's consistently bet him when he does start. Bridgewater's career ATS record is now 26-7 as a starting QB in the NFL, the best such mark EVER (15 starts min). That includes 3-0 ATS w/ the Saints this year as he's guided the team to "upsets" over Seattle and Dallas, then cover as chalk LW vs. Tampa Bay. It's clear that the oddsmakers adjusted too much w/ the Saints in the wake of the Drew Brees injury. But we think they've now "caught up" to them in a spot that screams "LOSS." All four of the Saints' wins this year have been by seven points or less, so despite Brees being hurt, they've been a bit lucky. 

Jacksonville has also had to turn to a backup QB this year, although in their case no one is complaining. Admittedly, when their big free agent signing Nick Foles (former Super Bowl MVP) went down in Week 1, there was a collective "groan" from the fanbase. But Gardner Minshew II has come from relative obscurity to become the new face of the franchise. The Jaguars might only be 2-2 SU w/ Minshew at the helm, but consider for a moment they've been an underdog in every game. This week will mark the 1st time all year that the Jags have been favored. It can be argued that they played well enough to win last week against Carolina as the offense gained over 500 yards. But a -3 turnover margin was too much to overcome as was Christian McCaffery's 237 yds from scrimmage.

Brees may not be the only key absence for New Orleans this week. RB Alvin Kamara is now listed as questionable. Him not playing would be quite the significant development. An ankle injury kept Kamara out of practice Friday, so he won't be 100% regardless. He's been held under 70 yds rushing four straight games anyway. Jalen Ramsey may be out for Jacksonville, but they're used to that now. Two things Jacksonville needs to do here. Feed Leonard Fournette (333 yds L2 games) and take care of the football. Do that and they'll drop the Saints to 2-5 SU/ATS their L7 as a road dog of 3 pts or less. It's time for the Bridgewater-led Saints to drop one. 10* Jacksonville

8* San Diego State (10:30 ET): Wyoming is about as fraudulent as any 4-1 team in the country right now as they've trailed by double digits in four of five games (including three wins) and have been outgained by an average of nearly 50 yards per game. Their only convincing effort came two weeks ago against a rapidly failing UNLV regime. Even w/ the benefit of a bye, we don't see the Cowboys duplicating that kind of effort Saturday night at San Diego State, who is also 4-1. While having the same record as Wyoming, SDSU happens to be outgaining its opponents by an average of about 50 YPG. They have a great defense and are at home, so we'll lay the short number in this one. 

When this College Football season is over, we may look back at Wyoming's upset of Missouri in Week 1 as the most shocking result of 2019. The Cowboys were outgained in that game by 148 yards, but fortunate to be +3 in turnovers. Wins over Texas State and Idaho weren't impressive either as the Pokes were outgained in both of those games (Idaho is a FCS team now) and again trailed by DD in the first half both times. The following week, they trailed Tulsa by DD in the 2H, but a late rally was able to sneak them under the number (+3.5) in a 24-21 loss. Again they were outgained. Then came the UNLV game where the Cowboys did look good, but again the opponent will more than likely have a new coach next year. Wyoming has yet to lose the TO battle in any game this year, so that's another area where they've been fortunate. 

San Diego State won its turnover battle (+4) last week in a 24-10 win over Colorado State. Often, we might call that a lucky win then, but not with this Aztecs' defense. SDSU has allowed fewer than 330 yds in all four of its wins this season. Their only loss came at home to Utah State, a game they fell in an early 20-3 hole due to a pick-six. Even then, they fought back and lost by only six points (23-17). That's the last time they played at home and after tonight, they won't be at home again until November 9th! So that should be a motivating factor. Somehow, the Aztecs are 0 for their last 8 ATS as home favorites. Look for that streak to end here as the defense has not given up more than 16 points in any game this year (excludes pick-six vs. Utah State). 8* San Diego State

8* Houston (8:08 ET): So we're pretty firm on the notion that the Astros are the better team here. That it took them five games to eliminate the pesky Rays probably is a source of line value that we can use to our advantage in ALCS Game 1. Houston had a run differential of +280 in the regular season, baseball's best, while the Yankees were third at +203 (Dodgers were 2nd and we know what happened to them). The homefield advantage is going to be crucial in this series as the Astros are now 63-21 at Minute Maid Park this season (won all 3 LDS games here). We like Houston a lot in Game 1. 

The Yankees swept their way through the LDS, continuing a shocking level of head to head mastery over the Twins. But the Astros aren't the Twins. Note that the Yankees' only visit to Minute Maid this season came all the way back in April and they got swept in that three-game series. Masahiro Tanaka will get the starting nod for Game 1 and while he's pitched well of late, his 6.16 road ERA simply cannot be ignored. Both teams have strong lineups, but as I'll get into in a moment, the Astros are better suited to limit the damage the opponent does offensively due to their incredible starting rotation. 

Getting back to the homefield advantage, when these teams faced off two years ago in the ALCS, the home team won all seven games. So, yes, homefield advantage is very important. Zack Greinke, the Game 1 starter for the Astros, knows this. He shockingly struggled in Tampa Bay, the only time we saw him in that series. Greinke gave up six runs, including 3 HR's, in just 3 2/3 IP as the Astros lost Game 3 by a score of 10-3. That won't happen again here at home. Greinke is 8-1 in 15 home starts this year (11-4 TSR) w/ a 1.048 WHIP. He faced the Yankees twice during the regular season and held them to three runs on seven hits in 12 2/3 IP. The Yankees are just 3-10 their L13 playoff road games and 2-12 their L14 LCS road games. 8* Houston

8* Nebraska (7:30 ET): While Nebraska is dealing w/ an injury at the QB position, the genesis of this play is that we simply do not think Minnesota is very good. We certainly have the Golden Gophers as the weakest of the 14 remaining unbeatens. For the sake of comparison, we don't even have Minnesota rated among the Top 50 in our power rankings. All but three of the 14 unbeaten teams are inside our top 35. That includes the top eight. So once again, we see not all records are created equal. In the case of the Gophers, they've got four wins by seven points or less. So they've been extremely fortunate so far. Nebraska would have killed for such good fortune last season when it suffered an amazing five losses by five points or less. We smell a reversal of fortune Saturday night in this Big 10 matchup. Take the points. 

Minnesota turned in - by far - its most complete performance last week. They beat Illinois 40-17, led by Rodney Smith's career-high 211 yards rushing. When all was said and done, the Gophers finished w/ 332 yds on the ground. Nebraska's run defense has basically been the opposite of "stout" in Big 10 play so far, but they still are allowing only 4.0 YPC. They gave up 157 yds rushing last week vs. Northwestern, but that was on 41 attempts. Also, Minnesota had failed to run for even 100 yds on the ground in its previous two games and had not exceeded 150 in any game before facing Illinois. Let's not forget that the Gophers needed a late TD just to beat South Dakota State in the opener. The Fresno State game went to double overtime and then it was a TD in the final minute to beat Georgia Southern. Despite Purdue losing both its starting QB and top WR on the same play (!) in the 1Q, they were still able to stay within seven of the Gophers two weeks ago. 

The "elements" are expected to be a factor Saturday night at TCF Bank Stadium where temperatures are expected to be the coldest for any kickoff in the history of the stadium. Both teams are saying the right things and that they'll be ready. Still, this very well could end up being a low-scoring game where points are at a premium. (Like Nebraska's 13-10 win over N'western last week). That makes having the underdog feel like the right call. The other storyline for this game is the Cornhuskers' QB situation. Adrian Martinez did travel, but it's unclear if he'll be starting due to a knee injury suffered last week. Noah Vedral, a transfer from UCF (came w/ HC Scott Frost), would start if Martinez can't go. Vedral led the drive that ended w/ the GW FG vs. N'western last week. Last year in Lincoln, the Cornhuskers destroyed the Gophers 53-28 for their 1st win under Frost. 8* Nebraska

8* Kentucky (7:30 ET): UK has lost its last three games, all in the SEC. Not that we didn't expect the Wildcats to regress this year, but they suffered only three defeats ALL of last season en route to their best record since 1977! Two of the three losses this year have come on the road and in the last one (24-7 @ South Carolina), QB Sawyer Smith was clearly not himself (went 11 of 32 for just 90 yards!). It was later revealed that Smith came into the game banged up (shoulder). So the open date certainly came at an opportune time for Kentucky and now they come out of it w/ a favorable spot against an Arkansas team that may be the worst in the conference. We'll lay the points in this matchup as the Wildcats are due for a win and a big one at that. 

Arkansas also has three losses, though only two of them came in SEC play. The third was a terrible misfire against San Jose State as three-touchdown favorites in Fayatteville. The Razorbacks defense has been routinely shredded this year and will be a big step down from UK has faced so far in conference play. You do have to hand it to the Hogs as they were surprisingly competitive in a 31-27 loss at Texas A&M two weeks ago. They easily covered as 23.5-point underdogs, but that also was at a neutral setting (Cowboys Stadium). In the last 10 "true" road games, Arkansas has gone 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS, including a two touchdown loss at Ole Miss on September 7th, their only "true" roadie of the year so far.

Being in different division in an expanded conference, these schools are not common opponents. They last met in 2012. Arkansas has not visited Lexington since 2008! While the perception that the West is the stronger of the two SEC divisions is absolutely true, don't tell that to the Razorbacks, who are just 3-9 SU vs. the East since 2013 w/ five consecutive losses. Their last cross-division win came in 2016 against Florida and that was at home. The last road win over a SEC East foe was 2015 at Tennessee. It's been almost a full month since the last time Kentucky played at home and that game saw them lead (still) unbeaten Florida into the 4Q. It was a 1-pt game into the final minute and the main reason UK lost at all was four turnovers. We project this to be a double-digit win. 8* Kentucky

8* North Texas (7:00 ET): North Texas is a team that came into 2019 w/ aspirations of winning C-USA's West Division. After all, it was something they'd accomplished just two short years ago w/ 7-1 SU record in conference play. Their only regular season loss was to eventual champ FAU, who beat them again in the Title Game. The Mean Green didn't win the division LY, but still went 9-4 SU overall in what was considered another successful season. But this year's squad has disappointed thus far, most recently w/ an embarrassing 46-25 loss two weeks ago to a Houston team that had just seen a number of its best players redshirt. The loss was at home too! It was the Mean Green's third loss overall and second by 20 or more. Coming out of a bye, we're expecting better this week as they visit Hattiesburg to play Southern Miss. Take the points in a game North Texas probably did not expect to be an underdog. 

Southern Miss is also coming off a bye here. The Golden Eagles are 3-2 w/ mostly predictable results. They were blown out in two games vs. SEC teams (Miss State, Alabama) but easily handled the two bottom-feeders on the schedule (Alcorn State, UTEP). The only game they've been involved in that was expected to be competitive was at Troy and USM won a shootout, 47-42, as three-point underdogs. The Golden Eagles also had aspirations of winning the division this year, so this shapes up to be a key game. They've been the more "consistent" team (compared to North Texas), but just so happen to have pulled an upset while North Texas suffered the outright loss to Houston as 7.5-pt chalk. 

North Texas has beaten Southern Miss three straight years, including two upsets. Last year was a 30-7 beatdown in Denton despite 300+ yds passing from USM QB Jack Abraham. Something to note from that loss to Houston is that North Texas finished w/ a 456-359 edge in total yds. They got shell-shocked early, falling into an early 14-0 hole. After fighting their way back into the game, Houston would use TWO special teams TD's to pull away for good. Looking at North Texas' other losses, one was by only six points at Cal, whom they also outgained. Losing by 22 is never good, but the 49-27 loss to SMU may not be as bad as originally thought given the Mustangs are still undefeated. The Mean Green have underachieved a little, but it's not too late to turn things around. They have a QB in Mason Fine that has more passing yards than any active QB in FBS! 8* North Texas 

10* San Jose State (4:00 ET): San Jose State seems to have "turned a corner" in recent weeks. They went out to Arkansas and delivered a shocking 31-24 upset as 20.5-point underdogs. Then last week, they were favored by a TD, something we haven't seen in a long time from them in forever - at least in conference play. The Spartans handled their business, beating New Mexico 32-21 as they used a fast start and six Lobos' turnovers to fuel their third straight ATS victory. Now they head to Nevada to face a Wolf Pack team licking its wounds after suffering a humiliating 54-3 defeat here in Reno, at the hands of Hawaii, two weeks ago. That's a result we remember quite well as we had Hawaii. We'll fade them again here as our numbers indicate SJSU is the better team on the field. 

Obviously, having had a week off, there's going to be an expectation that Nevada will be "motivated" to atone for what could be the most embarrassing loss in recent program history. Absolutely nothing went right against Hawaii, a game in which the Wolf Pack were outgained 512-203 and were -3 in turnovers. Coming out of the bye motivated sounds logical and nice, but what if the team simply isn't that good? As stated in our Hawaii-Nevada analysis, we were already pretty wary of a team that miraculously beat Purdue, lost to Oregon 77-6 and only beat FCS Weber State by six (19-13). Even a 37-21 win over lowly UTEP saw the Wolf Pack tied (21-21) in the 3Q. Then there is the QB situation as HC Jay Norvell has elected to start Malik Henry this week. Henry has never started a FBS game before. 

A first time starter going against a San Jose State defense that has 11 interceptions seems like a mismatch. It also might be that San Jose State is the more motivated side coming into this game. They've lost 9 of 10 to Nevada in a rivalry that goes all the way back to 1899! But they were close to winning last year and easily covered as 14-point underdogs. It was a two-point game in the 4Q. SJSU is a much better team this year having already tripled LY's win total. They've NEVER won a MWC road game in 2+ seasons under HC Brent Brennan, so again, we don't see Nevada necessarily being the more "motivated" side this week. Spartans QB Jose Love, now a senior, threw for over 400 yards against New Mexico and is completing nearly 62% of his pass attempts this year w/ only one interception. SJSU is 7-2 ATS the L9 times the line has been three points or less. 10* San Jose State

10* South Carolina (12:00 ET): For years, these two SEC East school would seemingly trade wins in what was a pretty even rivalry. But like 99% of the country, South Carolina is no longer at the same level as Georgia, who has become one of the elite programs in all of college football. UGA has now beaten South Carolina four years in a row w/ LY's 41-17 win being the most lopsided win in Columbia since 1971 and their most points EVER scored there. But even though the Dawgs are #3 in the country and have dominated the rivalry recently, not all history is against South Carolina this week. From 2010-2014, they upset Georgia three times. And then two years ago here in Athens, they easily covered a spread similar to this one in what was mostly a competitive game. We're going to take the points here, noting the Gamecocks are 8-2 ATS their L10 tries as underdogs as well as 11-5 ATS their L16 road games. 

South Carolina is off a bye here. That's helpful, especially for freshman QB Ryan Hilinski, who has been dealing w/ an elbow injury and had to miss the team's last game against Kentucky. But despite his absence, the Gamecocks still won the game easily, 24-7 as 3.5-pt home favorites. The defense was 2:32 away from a shutout when it allowed a meaningless TD. Hillinski is now back and should have some confidence, having already thrown for 324 yards and two touchdowns against Alabama in what was just his 2nd career start. Remember that Hilinksi wasn't even supposed to be the starter this year, but senior Jake Bentley broke his foot in the opener vs. North Carolina. That was a game South Carolina led 20-9 going into the 4Q. Even with a 3rd string QB, they dominated Kentucky two weeks ago, finishing w/ a 387-212 edge in total yds. So this team is probably better than you think.

When betting an underdog like this, you hope for a game where the favorite plays it conservative and at a slow pace. Enter Georgia, who plays at one of the slowest paces in all of College Football. The Bulldogs like to run the ball a lot and are quite successful at it, but South Carolina's defense is pretty effective at stopping it as well, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry. So don't look for Georgia to have much opportunity to "open the game up." The Dawgs trailed late in the 1H LW @ Tennessee before taking over in the second half. They won't be able to do that here against a better team. After beating Notre Dame and Tennessee, this might be a "flat spot" for the favorite. 10* South Carolina

10* Over Colorado/Oregon (10:00 ET): Oregon (#13) has a large edge on the defensive side of the ball over Colorado. The Ducks are allowing just 9.8 PPG while the Buffaloes are giving up 31.6 PPG and that right there explains why the home team is such a prohibitive favorite Friday night in Autzen. But on the offensive side of the ball, the teams are actually pretty even. Colorado averages 34.6 PPG, slightly ahead of Oregon's 34.2. Truthfully, more was expected from this Ducks offense w/ 10 starters back including QB Justin Herbert. They've only topped 21 pts twice, but here they should have their way w/ a suspect Colorado defense. We're on the Over in this one. 

Coming off a bye, Oregon had a bit of a disappointing effort last week against Cal. They still won mind you, but only 17-7 as 21-point favorites here at home. Three first half turnovers really hurt as the Ducks actually went into halftime w/ 0 points on the scoreboard. That won't happen again here. Cal has one of the better defenses in the Pac 12, if not the country. The week before Oregon faced another tough defense in Stanford. Colorado has given up more points than every Pac 12 team besides UCLA this year. Herbert has thrown a TD pass in 33 consecutive games, the nation's longest active streak, and has 15 already this year. That's the best five-game stretch by ANY QB in Oregon history. 

A couple of injury-related tibits should benefit the Colorado offense in this one. One, they could get back WR Laviska Shenault Jr., who missed LW's 35-30 loss to Arizona. Even w/o him, the Buffs still gained over 500 yards. On the other side, Oregon's defense will be w/o DE Gus Cumberlander, whose season is over due to a knee injury. For Colorado QB Steven Montez, it's come full circle as his first career start came against Oregon back in 2016. Montez and the Buffs were 10-point underdogs in that game and pulled the outright upset. The final score was 41-38. This Colorado offense will arguably be the best the Oregon defense has faced all season. Both Herbert and Montez should have their respective offenses moving the ball regularly in this one. 10* Over Colorado/Oregon

10* Under Nationals/Cardinals (8:08 ET): Not sure anyone was expecting this to be the NLCS matchup. Washington's involvement is especially surprising considering they had to get through the Dodgers and were down 3-0 in Game 5 of that LDS. But they took advantage of some Dave Roberts' foolishness and now are the favorites to represent the Senior Circuit in the World Series. Meanwhile, there was little drama in St. Louis' own Game 5 victory on Wednesday as it was basically "over before it started," thanks to a record-setting 10-run inning against the Braves. I don't think we'll be seeing anything like that again anytime soon and for Game 1 of the NLCS we think the situation calls for an Under. 

Anibal Sanchez will be on the bump Friday for the Nationals. He pitched Game 3 against the Dodgers and while the Nats lost that game 10-4, the final score was misleading from Sanchez's perspective. He allowed only 1 run (on 4 hits) in 5 IP and had 9 K's. He's now allowed 3 ER or fewer in seven of his past eight starts. His last five have seen him give up only 8 ER in 31 IP w/ just 23 hits allowed. Sanchez faced the Cardinals one time this year and allowed three runs in five innings. Needless to say, he won't be subjected to any kind of historical performance like the Cards had in Atlanta Wednesday. Not that they needed to score any more after that 1st inning, but St. Louis didn't score at all after the 3rd inning in that game with just four hits over the final six frames. They had 13 runs despite only 11 hits and the 1st inning saw them get 10 on just five hits. Despite being 2-4 his career vs. the Redbirds, Sanchez has a 3.44 ERA in eight starts against them. His numbers have also been better on the road this season.

Having homefield advantage in the NLCS is not something St. Louis expected (I think everyone expected LA to be here), but they'll gladly take it. Game 1 starter Miles Mikolas has definitely pitched better at home this year w/ a 3.01 ERA and 1.045 WHIP here (compared to 5.20 and 1.381 on the road). Like Sanchez, Mikolas also allowed just 1 run in 5 IP in his lone LDS start (on the road) plus he added a scoreless inning of relief. During the regular season, the Dodgers (3.4 per game) were the only team in baseball to allow fewer runs at home than the Cardinals (3.6). Washington was obviously very lucky to score seven times in the elimination game Wednesday as they'd been shutout for the first five innings and had just one run heading into the dramatic eighth. Mikolas allowed only 4 runs in 12 IP vs. Washington in two starts during the regular season. His last seven starts have produced a 2.88 ERA and 1.082 WHIP.  This should be a low-scoring game. 10* Under Nationals/Cardinals

10* Miami FL (8:00 ET): This is the classic "unranked team favored over a Top 25 opponent" where the oddsmakers are blatantly tipping their hand, but the public rarely picks up on it. The reality is that there are 8-10 teams every year considerably better than the rest of the country. But after that, there isn't much difference between #11 and #35. Once you get out of the Top 15, the difference often gets really minimal, especially after factoring in homefield advantage. Virginia is a team that finds itself ranked #20 right now, but they barely crack our top 40. Miami is actually ahead of them in our power rankings, so we'll gladly lay the short number here for this Friday night matchup. Traditionally, when an unranked team is favored over a Top 25 opponent, they cover. 

It was just two Saturdays ago that we made clear our view of this Virginia team. They were #18 and taking on a Notre Dame team that was ranked 10th. Despite the relative "closeness" of the rankings, the Fighting Irish were giving double digits. We laid it. It was a little lucky, but Notre Dame got the cover thanks in large part to five UVA turnovers and won 35-20. It was the Cavaliers' third straight ATS loss. They'd been outgained in wins over Florida State and Old Dominion, gaining only 244 total yds against the latter. I'm just not much of a believer in Bronco Mendenhall's team. From a historical perspective, Friday games have not been kind to Virginia. They've lost 10 of the last 12. Also, no player on the current roster has ever won two straight ACC road games. Back in Week 1, the Cavs won 30-14 at Pitt. The last year where the program had multiple ACC road wins was 2011.

Miami is just 2-3 SU. Outside of a 63-0 beatdown over FCS Bethune-Cookman, "The U" has hardly looked good. But all three of those losses have been by seven points, one of them to a Top 10 team (Florida). We've still got faith in the team. HC Manny Diaz, who was the DC last year under Mark Richt, has announced he'll be taking more of a "hands on" role on the defensive side of the ball this week. On offense, N'Kosi Perry will start at QB in place of the injured Jarren Williams. Fine by us as Perry was the one who very nearly led an improbable comeback against Virginia Tech last week. Williams threw three 1Q INT's as the 'Canes dug themselves an early 28-0 hole. Perry came in and threw for a career-high 422 yards & 4 TD's. Miami still lost 35-28 even w/ a 563-337 total yardage edge. They just couldn't overcome a -5 TO margin. They won't be digging themselves that kind of hole again and we look for them to win a "statement" game. 10* Miami FL

10* Texas State (9:15 ET): Texas State hasn't had much luck beating LA Monroe (lost to them three straight years), but it's a new season and the game is in San Marcos Thursday night. The Bobcats didn't have a prayer of winning either of their two road games this year (at Texas A&M and SMU), but they've played relatively well at home.  They actually come into this game on a two-game win streak, having beaten Georgia State 37-34 and FCS Nicholls State 24-3. The home record easily could be 3-0 as they outgained Wyoming 444-293, but lost a DD lead thanks to three turnovers. Look for the Bobcats to likely snap that three-year losing streak Thursday as we'll take the points. 

LA Monroe also comes in at 2-3. Like Texas State, they won their first Sun Belt Game (30-17 over South Alabama) and their only other win was against a FCS team (Grambling). But the Warhawks are 0-3 ATS the L3 games as they were -14.5 vs. South Alabama and have been blown out twice. After only losing by a single point at Florida State in Week 2, 45-44, there appeared to be some promise here. But we still remember what happened in Monroe's last road game as we made the unfortunate decision of taking them plus the +19. They lost 72-20 at Iowa State then two Saturdays ago they were blown out again, this time 52-33 at home by Memphis. 

Something that's a little interesting here is that these teams came into the year as two of the three most experienced teams in the entire country! This is a huge game in both team's hopes for improving and the bottom line is we feel the better team is the one getting points. While LA Monroe has already traveled to face two P5 teams, the fact that their defense has given up 45+ points three times is not encouraging. The Warhawks are already 0-2 ATS as favorites this season, leaving them at 3-7 ATS their L10 as chalk. The win over Georgia State snapped a stunning 12-game losing streak in conference home games for Texas State. They are hungry to now make it two wins in a row! The Bobcats have covered 5 of 7 against teams with losing records. 10* Texas State