8* Fresno State (10:00 ET): This lines up as a colossal mismatch on the Wednesday card. Fresno State is one of several teams across the country that recently suffered a rather head-scratching loss. Theirs came at home Saturday against Utah Valley State. FSU was a 10-point home favorite, but lost 64-60 as they shot a dreadful 34.0% from the field. That snapped a seven-game win streak and was a "far cry" from what we usually see from this Bulldogs team on the offensive end as they still average over 80 PPG for the year. This is only their second "true" road game of the year, but I had them in the 1st and they covered there (at TCU). Lay the points this time. 

San Jose State is very bad. I count them outside the top 300 teams in the country. Now the Spartans are coming off a difficult three-game road trek where they had to play two Pac 12 teams (Stanford, Cal), then St. Mary's. In the finale, they were blown out by 30 and scored a season-low 45 points. This is a team w/ only three wins this year. One was against Life Pacific (an actual team, not a life insurance company!) and the other two were by a total of seven points against Bethune-Cookman and Northern Arizona, two other very bad teams. Among schools w/ both a D-I football and basketball program, SJSU may have the weakest athletic department in the country. The school's football program is among the worst in the country and so is the basketball team.

San Jose State won just a single game in conference play last season (by two points!), going 1-17 SU against the rest of the Mountain West. They were 4-26 SU overall. They have now lost 35 of their last 41 games. Fresno State beat them twice last season, by nearly identical scores - 77-59 at home and 77-57 on the road. It was a simple case of an "off-shooting night" for FSU against Utah Valley State as their percentages were down across the board. Look for them to bounce back in a major way in this Mt. West Conference opener. 8* Fresno State  

8* Under T'Wolves/Celtics (8:05 ET): Minnesota has gone Over in eight straight games. Boston has gone Over in six straight. Those respective streaks have conspired to get this total far higher than it ought to be and I'm going Under on this Wednesday night ESPN matchup. Boston remains one of the top defensive teams in the league, ranking 4th in efficiency. Minnesota is a team that was 12-2 Under in the month of November. So December may have simply been a case of "regression to the mean" for them. These teams played almost exactly one month ago (12.1) and a hot shooting night from Boston resulted in a 118-109 final, which went Over the total of 216. But tonight, they'll be w/o leading scorer Kyrie Irving due to an eye injury suffered in Monday's loss to San Antonio.

In last month's win at Minnesota, the Celtics shot 47.1% overall from the field, including 17 of 44 from three-point range, and they went a perfect 21 of 21 at the free throw line. Those percentages are simply unlikely to be matched here, especially w/o Irving. Gordan Hayward also tossed in a season-high 30 points in the Twin Cities. Irving had 21 pts and 9 assists, production that won't be easy to make up. Monday night in San Antonio, the game seemed well on its way to an easy Under before Boston had an uncharacteristic defensive breakdown, allowing 46 pts in the third quarter, including 21 in a three-minute stretch. San Antonio made 14 of the 26 three-pointers it attempted in the game. Again, that's simply not emblematic of the kind of defense the Celtics usually play. 

Boston is attempting more threes themselves this year, but that's tied to Irving and the number they had (44) the last time they faced Minnesota was definitely on the "high side." Minnesota is toward the bottom of the league in 3PA and is thin right now in the backcourt w/ both Derrick Rose and Jeff Teague injured. The Under is 13-6 this year when the T'wolves face a team that has a winning record. 8* Under T'wolves/Celtics

10* Northern Iowa (8:00 ET): What in the world has happened in Cedar Falls? Northern Iowa, a once proud program, has fallen on some really hard times the last couple seasons including a 5-8 SU start this year. The Panthers have been even more dreadful against the pointspread, owning a 1-10 ATS mark this year. That shows the oddsmakers have been a little slow in keeping up w/ the program's overall regression. But here they've overadjusted as UNI is set to face a middling Bradley team that's been pretty overrated all season. The Braves have proven to be a poor bet in the role of favorite, so I'm taking the points here in the Missouri Valley Conference opener for both. 

Over the L6 games, Bradley has lost outright THREE different times as a favorite. Two of those were here at home as both New Mexico (+7.5) and Eastern Illinois (+13) came to Normal and pulled upsets. The Braves have not played since 12/22 when they barely escaped SE Louisiana, winning by only three as 13-point favorites. On a poor shooting night overall (34.0 FG%), Bradley made a three-pointer in the final seconds to notch the SU win. Their last four games have all been decided by seven points or less. I just think it would be a mistake to expect this team to win by any kind of margin, especially against a conference foe following a long layoff. The Braves are just 1-5 ATS in home games this season. 

Northern Iowa's only ATS win this year came back on 11/19 against Old Dominion (favorite to win the Colonial), a 54-53 upset as 2.5-pt dogs. In a weird scheduling spot, the Panthers then had to face the Monarchs again four days later (on the road) and lost by seven, starting the current 7-game ATS slide. Last Saturday, UNI lost at home to Stony Brook as 1.5-pt chalk, 73-63. Stony Brook isn't a bad team mind you (set school record w/ 12 non-conf wins this Year). As ugly as things have gotten for the Panthers at the betting window this year, I have to believe they're being undervalued in this spot. 10* Northern Iowa

10* Cleveland (7:05 ET): These teams just met last week in Miami. The Heat won 118-94, as 10.5-pt favorites, so as you can see the oddsmakers have adjusted their ratings a bit for the rematch. But I'm not convinced that the Heat will enjoy the same advantages here as they did down on South Beach last week. For starters, will they shoot 52.7% from the field again while holding the Cavs to 38.3%? Seems questionable. While 9-5 SU in December, Miami isn't a particularly good shooting team (just 43.6% overall) and they are playing w/o Goran Dragic. Sunday's home loss to the T'wolves meant this team still hasn't been above .500 since starting the year 3-2. 

Cleveland certainly has its issues (30th in defensive efficiency, injuries), but five of their eight wins this year have come at home. They've been off since Saturday when they lost down in Atlanta by only three points. Obviously, the Hawks aren't a good team, but at least the Cavs (just barely) covered as 3.5-point pups. It was also the second night of a back to back as they were fresh off losing in Miami. That game saw Cleveland come out red hot (shot 58% in the 1st quarter) only to fall apart the rest of the way. One player to watch here is Collin Sexton, the Cavs' leading scorer, who had only eight points (shot 2 of 10) last week in Miami. I expect him to be a lot more prolific tonight. 

The Heat are certainly better than the Cavaliers, but I'm not sure if they're THIS much better (i.e. what the oddsmakers are calling for) on the road. They've gotten to seventh place in weak Eastern Conference, but have barely outscored their opponents this year while posting a negative efficiency rating. In terms of true shooting percentage, they are right near the bottom of the league. We do not see them as a road favorite very often (only 5x previously this year) and certainly not one of this size. Losers of six straight and w/ the worst SU record in the league right now, I think Cleveland is going to be motivate here. Take the points. 10* Cleveland

7* Calgary (7:05 ET): The Flames snapped a three-game home losing streak in resounding fashion on the night of New Year's Eve, smashing San Jose by a score of 8-5. I'm happy to report I was on the Pacific Division leaders in that one and will come right back w/ them again this evening in Detroit. Calgary continues to pace the Pacific w/ 52 points (tied w/ Vegas) and has the top goal differential in the entire Western Conference (+29). As I said in my previous analysis (for the San Jose game), they were the ONLY team in the league currently in the top five in both goals scored and allowed. They've "slipped" to 6th in goals allowed, but are still the only team in the top six in both categories (only Toronto & Winnipeg are also both top 10).

Calgary should roll here against a Detroit club that has lost five straight and 9 out of its last 10. The Red Wings tasted defeat at the hands of Florida, 4-3, in their last game which came here on home ice New Year's Eve (blew a 3-0 lead too). The Red Wings now have a bottom five goal differential in the league (-25) and as was expected, they're near the bottom of the Atlantic Division standings (only ahead of Ottawa). I don't see things getting much better any time soon for the Wings as they managed just 20 shots on goal vs. the Panthers and have now given up 4+ goals in four straight games. This is simply a very bad hockey team right now. 

In my analysis for Calgary-San Jose matchup, I mentioned how the Flames are #2 in the league in goals per game at home (trailing only the historically great Lightning). Well, their scoring may dip away from the Saddledome, but the good news is that the Flames are by far and away the top team in the league when it comes to fewest goals allowed on the road, allowing just 2.1 per game (Pittsburgh is #2 at 2.47). As you can tell, I really like this team and its prospects moving forward. I feel the exact opposite about Detroit, making this the biggest mismatch on the NHL card Wednesday. 7* Calgary

8* Portland (9:05 ET): Sacramento is somehow still in playoff contention, something I wouldn't have thought possible prior to the start of the season. But despite being two games over .500, the Kings have been outscored by the second worst margin in the entire Western Conference (only Phoenix worse obviously). One of the main reasons that I do NOT see them maintaining their winning record is a lack of defense. The Kings rank dead last in the West in points allowed (116.8 PPG) and they've allowed more than 120 per game over their last four contests.

Portland has had a bit of an "up and down" campaign, but is five games over .500 and tied w/ the Lakers for 6th in the West. They are just one-half game back of 4th as well. The team is certainly coming off one of its better moments of the season, that being a 129-95 beatdown of Philadelphia Saturday night. They shot a scorching 59.0% from the field, including 12 of 22 from three-point range. They did so while at the same time holding the 76ers to just 35.4% overall shooting and 8 of 43 (18.6%!) from three-point ranger. Going into the fourth quarter, the Blazers were up by 39 points.

This is the first meeting of the season between these two teams. Though they may not match the numbers from the Philadelphia game, I still expect Portland to score in bunches tonight. Also, as a favorite this season, the Blazers have won (straight up) 14 out of 19 times. I think this is an outstanding value on a superior side. You should expect the Kings to continue to tumble down the standings and by season's end I would not be surprised if the only thing keeping them out of the conference basement is Phoenix. In games where the O/U is 230 points or higher, Sacramento is just 4-10 SU this season. 8* Portland

10* Under Texas/Georgia (8:45 ET): Something will have to give here. Georgia has gone 6-1-1 ATS its last eight times as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. But Texas' HC Tom Herman has a ridiculous mark as an underdog in his career, going 12-3 ATS w/ 10 outright upsets. My own personal numbers indicate that UGA absolutely deserves to be favored in this price range. But there may be an issue of motivation w/ them coming up short against Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Therefore, with two defensive minded teams, I'm on the Under in this year's Sugar Bowl. 

Georgia is a top five team in defensive efficiency and allows just 18.5 PPG (top 15 in the country). They allow just 311.2 YPG. After the gap between the winners and losers in Saturday's CFP semifinals became readily apparent, I think it should be obvious to all that the Dawgs are pretty clearly one of the four best teams in America (maybe 3rd?). While there last three games all went Over the total, two of those were against overmatched opponents where the offense was able to score at will. That won't be the case here vs. Texas. The other was the SEC Champ Game vs. an Alabama team that has the best offense of the Saban era. 

Playing indoors (Cowboys Stadium), Texas was able to hold the top scoring offense in the country (Oklahoma) to "just" 39 points. That's no small feat. You may recall I had the Under in the game, which cashed pretty easily. Texas' last three games all stayed Under. Despite routinely facing some of the top offenses in the country, the Longhorns managed to allow just 26.2 PPG during the regular season. Georgia, while potentially explosive offensively, is not as explosive as some of the Big 12 teams Texas is used to facing. The Under is 4-1 in Texas' last five bowl games and 31-11 their L42 games vs. teams w/ a winning record. 10* Under Texas/Georgia 

10* Utah (7:05 ET): Though they're below .500, the 18-19 Jazz are a team that continues to get respect from oddsmakers. As they should. Note they've not only outscored opponents this season, they've done so by roughly the same margin as the 21-16 Lakers. This was a team projected to finish near the top of the Western Conference standings (prior to the start of the year), so right now I feel that the remain in an excellent "buy low" situation. With tonight's opponent still w/o two of its best players (Lowry, Valanciunas), this is a great game-specific spot to take the Jazz plus the points. 

Toronto has enjoyed a tremendous first half to the season. They're 27-11 SU and battling Milwaukee for 1st place in the Eastern Conference. But, partly due to the injuries, the Raptors have covered only 1 of their last 8 games (1-6-1 ATS). The last two have been particularly ugly w/ a 116-87 loss at Orlando (worst loss of the season) and only beating Chicago 95-89. Lowry has played just one game since 12.12 and Valanciunas is out for a couple more weeks. Without the duo, the Raptors have actually suffered their two worst losses of the year over the L10 days (also lost by 25 @ Philly).

When evaluating Utah's record, it's important to make note that they've played the toughest schedule in the league and 21 of their 37 games have been on the road. Their next four games will all be on the road, against Eastern Conference foes, including a trip to Milwaukee. But note they come into the trip on a positive note having just blown out the Knicks by 32 on Saturday night. I had the Over and Utah turned in one of its best offensive showings of the year, led by Rudy Gobert's 25 pts and 16 rebounds. The Jazz have revenge here for a 13-point loss at home last month. They are 5-1 ATS when seeking to revenge a home defeat this season. 10* Utah 

8* Washington (5:00 ET): Ohio State is a very popular side in this year's edition of the Rose Bowl, not only based on name recognition, but also due to the fact that this is Urban Meyer's final game on the sidelines. Conventional wisdom says the Buckeyes "will" send Meyer out a winner, but let's not forget that Georgia Tech (admittedly not as strong a team as OSU) failed to do the same for Paul Johnson earlier this week. Washington is a really strong defensive team and it's not like Ohio State didn't underachieve this year (despite losing only one game). I'll take the points here. 

The Huskies give up only 15.5 PPG. Like Ohio State, they came into 2018 w/ CFP aspirations, only to fall short. But they still won the Pac 12 Championship, winning at Washington State in the regular season finale and then holding Utah to only three points in the Conference Title Game. Oregon was the only team this year to score more than 24 pts on the Huskies. Granted, Ohio State will be the best offense they have faced this year. But the Huskies' three losses this year have been by a combined 10 points. They have not been blown out and I don't expect them to be here. For those pointing to the Michigan game as a sign Ohio State may put up a ton of points here, note that Washington plays a different style of defense. 

The Buckeyes had three wins by five points or less in the regular season and two of those were against Maryland and Nebraska, non-bowl teams. Defensively, this team had issues all season, giving up at least 26 points in all but five games. The Washington offense was far from consistent this year, but they have a senior QB in Jake Browning that will want to go out a winner just as much as Meyer. Browning and the seniors have not won a bowl game since the 2015 Heart of Dallas Bowl against Southern Miss. They are a great value as a contrarian dog here. 8* Washington  

10* San Diego State (3:00 ET): The Aztecs are off an absolutely shocking loss to Brown on Saturday. It's not just THAT they lost, it's HOW. They fell 82-61 as 11-pt favorites, getting victimized by a barrage of three-pointers from the Ivy League contingent. The 1st half in particular was as shocking as any box score you'll see all season w/ Brown going into the break w/ a 50-22 advantage. The Bears shot only nine free throws for the game, but went 15 of 28 from three-point range and shot 53.4% overall. That was a far cry from SDSU's shooting as they went just 35.2% overall from the field, including 5 of 17 from behind the arc. I expect a massive bounce back on New Year's Day. Lay the points. 

What made that loss to Brown all the more shocking is that it simply was not in line w/ the Aztecs' season performance at all. Even after the disaster Saturday, visitors are still shooting just 29.2% from three-point range here, for the season. The Aztecs allow just 64.3 PPG at home. Also, as impressive as those defensive numbers are, the Aztecs also rank 53rd in the country in offensive efficiency. They average 82.4 PPG at home. 

Perhaps SDSU could be tested defensively here by a CS Northridge squad that averages almost 80 PPG itself. But there's a reason that the Matadors lost 8 of their first 10 games vs. D-I opponents this season. They can't stop anybody. They are allowing a frightening 84.2 PPG and predictably that number goes up even further when they're on the road as home teams are hitting over 40% against them from three-point range. The Matadors have managed to win three straight (also 3-0 ATS), including a 94-86 home win over Morgan State on Saturday. But they are just 8-20 ATS the L3 seasons after allowing 80+ pts the previous game. This should be a big bounce back game for the home favorite. 10* San Diego State

8* Boston (1:05 ET): I've been no fan of this Blackhawks team this season and I don't think Touchdown Jesus can save them here as they face the Bruins, at Notre Dame Stadium, in the annual Winter Classic on New Year's Day. While B2B wins have allowed Chicago to temporarily escape the basement in the Central Division (ahead of St. Louis), they still own the worst goal differential in the Western Conference at -30. Boston probably won't be able to catch the leaders in the Atlantic (TB/Toronto), but they are better than their record and could easily finish third in the division. I know "anything can happen" at a neutral setting such as this, but the Bruins are the superior team and should win easily. 

Boston won its last game, in overtime, as they went to Buffalo Saturday night and prevailed 3-2. They actually dominated in terms of shots on goal, finishing w/ a 42-28 advantage there, and would have won in regulation if not for allowing a short-handed goal. When it comes to allowing goals this year, the Bruins have been one of the stingiest teams in the league, ranking 3rd at just 2.64 per game. They also have the league's fourth ranked power play, converting at 26.6%.

That 4th ranked PP could come in handy this afternoon given the Blackhawks are dead last in the league in penalty killing at just 74.2%. The PK has been an issue w/ this team for a couple years now and is only now finally coming back to bite them. Remember that Chicago is still w/o top goaltender Corey Crawford (concussion), leaving Cam Ward to likely start today's game. Ward has a save percentage of just .886 for the season. Overall, Chicago ranks 30th (next to last) in the league in goals allowed per game at 3.71. They've allowed only four total in posting the B2B wins, but I look for the defensive issues to reappear today in South Bend. 8* Boston 

8* Under LSU/Central Florida (1:00 ET): This is the Fiesta Bowl w/ 9-3 LSU of the SEC taking on a 12-0 Central Florida team that just completed its second unbeaten regular season in as many years. It's always fun to see how the so-called "Group of Five" teams (best team from CFB's five smallest conferences) do against the big boys in these New Year's Six Bowl Games. Quite frankly, they've more than held their own, going not only 4-1 ATS, but also pulling four outright upsets. That includes an upset by UCF (over Auburn) in LY's Peach Bowl. Unfortunately for this year's Golden Knights, they're going to have to make a go of it this time w/o QB McKenzie Milton, who suffered a season-ending injury in the regular season finale. Ultimately, I believe that injury will prevent UCF from winning here. It also should result in a much lower-scoring game than anticipated.

Now, I know what UCF fans are probably saying. "Without Milton, we just scored 56 points in the AAC Championship Game." This is true. But that was against a porous Memphis defense that allows over 425 YPG (gave up 37 in the bowl to Wake Forest). Here, the Knights must contend w/ a LSU defense that is top 10 nationally in efficiency. The Tigers allow only 20.9 PPG and that number would be even lower were it not for the insane regular season finale that they played against Texas A&M and wound up going SEVEN overtimes and a 74-72 final. In nine wins this year, LSU never gave up more than 21 points. They allowed 17 or fewer in seven games. They will easily be the best defense that UCF has seen all season. 

Speaking of defense, UCF has a pretty good one as well. At the risk of sounding like a broken record (too late?), the Knights competition was nowhere close to what LSU faced in the rugged SEC, but they still only allowed 21.2 PPG and the American does have some really good offensive teams. With Milton out, defense may be how UCF hangs around in this one. Eight of UCF's 12 games have stayed Under this year w/ the AAC Champ Game snapping a string of Unders. This number has been bet up and I now find that the value is on the Under. 8* Under LSU/Central Florida  

10* Calgary (9:05 ET): Though they are leading the Pacific Division and have the top goal differential in the Western Conference, I view this as a very important game for the Flames, who have - uncharacteristically - lost three in a row at home. Going back to the end of the 2016-17 season, they've also lost six straight times to the Sharks. That - and the losing streak at home - have got to end sooner rather than later, so w/ Calgary turning in a strong season overall, there's no time like the present. I think this is an outstanding value on home ice. 

San Jose was successful in its first leg of this two-game Alberta trip, beating Edmonton 7-4 on Saturday. That came on the heels of a home win against Anaheim (which I was on!) Thursday. Prior to that, the Sharks had experienced their own home woes w/ three straight losses at The Tank. But they've also struggled at times on the road this year, going 9-8-3. They are also just 6-9 SU so far against teams with a winning record. They may just be one point back of Calgary in the Pacific, but YTD goal differentials indicate there's a larger gap in the respective levels of play. Goaltending also hasn't been sharp the L5 games w/ an .870 save percentage.

Calgary is one of only three teams in the league averaging at least 4.0 goals per game at home. So it's a surprise to see them slumping a bit of late. But four of the eight home losses suffered this year came past regulation, including the one Saturday night to Vancouver where they blew a 2-1 lead. Interesting enough is that both Flames goals came short-handed! This is still the ONLY team in the league to rank in the top five in both goals scored and allowed. They are 13-5 SU against teams w/ winning records and in division games, they're allowing an average of just 24.4 shots per game. 10* Calgary 

8* Tampa Bay (8:05 ET): These teams have been trending in different directions for the last two weeks now and I expect that to continue here. Tampa Bay hasn't just been hot recently (won 5 in a row); they've been hot all year. They are pretty clearly the best team in the league right now and are 13-0-1 over the L14 games. They haven't tasted defeat in regulation this entire month. As for Anaheim, they were a team I felt was due to regress and regress is exactly what they've done as they've dropped five in a row coming into tonight. The Ducks rank 29th in the league in goals per game, so I'm not sure how they "keep up" here, given that the Lightning are 1st in the league in scoring and have scored six goals in three consecutive games. 

Making matters worse for Anaheim is that the Lightning have some payback on their minds for a loss suffered at home back on November 27th. When the Ducks won 3-1 in TB a month ago (were +200 on the ML!), it marked the third consecutive time the road team won in this head to head rivalry. Don't look for home ice to be enough to save the Ducks here as they just lost to Arizona here two nights ago, 5-4. When these teams met the first time, the Lightning had a 35-22 edge in shots, but fell victim to two quick goals in the third period (scored 30 seconds apart), one coming on a Ducks' power play. I just don't see anything close to a similar scenario playing out here tonight.

Who can dispute TB as the league's best team right now? They have the best overall record (30-7-2), the top goal differential (+50) and haven't lost a game in regulation since November 27th. During the 13-0-1 run, they've scored a ridiculous 5.6 goals per game, always scoring at least three and topping four 10 times! This is a historically good offense right now that appears as if it cannot be stopped. They have scored five or more goals in five straight games, six in three straight and they are 10-2 SU after allowing 4+ goals their previous game (won 6-5 vs. Montreal Saturday). Their only loss this month came at Winnipeg, who is one of the top teams in the league, in overtime. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Under Celtics/Spurs (7:05 ET): Two defensive-minded teams meet in a game that is sadly buried on New Year's Eve. Things weren't always looking rosy for the Spurs at the defensive end. They started this season by posting some of their worst numbers on that end of the floor in the Gregg Popovich era. But they've certainly turned things around this month. At one point, they held seven straight opponents under 100 pts. They went nine straight holding teams to a FG% of 43.5 or lower. As a result, they are now just 1.5 games out of 4th place in the Western Conference.

Despite the Over being 5-0 in the last five games and 8-1 their last nine, Boston is #3 in the league in defensive efficiency. In terms of net efficiency rating, they aren't all that far off from the top two teams in the East, Toronto and Milwaukee. So even though the Celtics are currently in 5th place in the East, expect them to start moving up the standings shortly. They've won three of four coming into tonight, including a nice come from behind effort against Memphis on Saturday where Kyrie Irving led the way w/ 26 points and 13 assists. They held the Grizzlies to just 16 pts in the 4Q.

The rash of recent Overs for the Celtics seems atypical and is likely to reverse itself. Meanwhile, the Spurs have gone Under in 8 of their last 11 games. With all five starters scoring in double figures, led by LaMarcus Aldridge's season-high 38 points, the Spurs scored 122 on the Clippers Saturday night. I would not look for such an offensive performance to be repeated tonight. Lucky for them, they are allowing only 103.9 PPG at home, a huge improvement over the 114.7 PPG they allow on the road. These teams have gone Over the L4 times they've played, but the totals were far lower, including a pair of sub-200 pt lines LY. 10* Under Celtics/Spurs 

8* Orlando (6:05 ET): Divisions are fairly meaningless in the NBA, but it's worth noting that the Southeast doesn't have a single team w/ a winning record. Yet, because the Eastern Conference is so weak, we could see as many as two teams make the playoffs (at least one will). Charlotte seems to be the division's best right now, but that's mostly faint praise as their penchant for losing close games continues to be an absolute killer. Saturday, they lost by four at Washington, who was without John Wall (out for season). That setback doesn't even add to the fact the Hornets are a ghastly 4-22 SU in games decided by three points or less the last 3 seasons. Maybe they start winning some of those moving forward? Regardless, I don't see them winning big tonight. 

Orlando has had its troubles with Charlotte the last few seasons. They are 0-9 SU against them the L3 seasons and 1-8 ATS. This includes a humiliating 32-point loss at home back in October. I'm sure the Magic players remember that one and will be out for revenge here. While December has not been the best month for the Magic, they are at least ending it in strong fashion. Friday night, they blew out the Raptors 116-87. Last night, they edged the Pistons 109-107. Both wins were at home, but let's note the fact Orlando is 9-4 ATS on the road this season and 15-9 ATS as an underdog. Statistically, they've actually been a better team on the road this year and they're 8-3-1 ATS as a road dog. 

Charlotte has given up 130+ points in two of its last three games. While one of those (134-132 loss at Brooklyn) went to overtime, the number of points allowed certainly doesn't bode well for the Hornets as a mid-size favorite. Especially since they just lost to a Wizards team w/o Wall despite Kemba Walker scoring 47 points. Orlando is being undervalued here b/c of the back to back, but it's not like they've played poorly in this scenario previously (2-0-1 ATS on the road). The key for them here is getting to 100 pts, something they should easily do against a Charlotte team that's giving up 111.4 PPG. The Magic are 12-7 SU this year when topping 100 pts. Defensively, the Magic are 7th in the league, allowing just 107.0 PPG. They held Detroit to just 48 pts in the 2H last night. Take the points. 8* Orlando

10* Michigan State (3:00 ET): My favorite side of the Bowls is Michigan State in the Redbox Bowl as I think the wrong team is favored here. I'll concede that Sparty's offense isn't always pretty, but I trust their defense and coaching staff to get the job done here against an overrated Oregon team. They may have underperformed in the regular season, but took on a much tougher schedule than did the Ducks. In their past six bowl games, MSU is 5-1 SU and ATS, the only loss coming to Alabama in a CFP semifinal matchup. Mark Dantonio has been involved in seven bowl games where the spread has been less than a touchdown and his teams are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in those games, including 5-0 ATS as a dog w/ four outright upsets. They are the better team here. 

Oregon has to be relieved that QB Justin Herbert will be returning to school next season. It was thought he would be the 1st QB chosen in the NFL Draft had he chosen to declare. But as good as Herbert was, the Ducks kind of faltered down the stretch, going just 3-3 SU the L6 games w/ two of those wins coming at the expense of the Pac 12's two last place teams, UCLA and Oregon State. They were 0-3 SU outside of Eugene, losing by double digits to Wazzu and Arizona. They also allowed 32 points to a Utah team that was w/o its starting QB AND RB. The Ducks did beat a couple of good defenses this year in Cal and Washington, but Michigan State will be the best they've gone up against in 2018. 

Michigan State allows only 4.62 yards per play, which is 12th best in the country. They allow just 81 YPG (#1) on the ground and 2.7 yards per carry. This is a defense that held Ohio State's vaunted offense in relative check. Other than the Buckeyes, no Spartans opponent scored more than 13 points against them the L5 games. CB Justin Layne won't play here (will instead prepare for the NFL Draft), but w/ Dantonio's coaching, I think this unit will be fine. Three of MSU's four losses this year were to Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State, all of whom I rate as top 10 teams. As alluded to earlier, the offense does have its issues, but a lot that had to do w/ missing RB L.J. Scott for much of the year. Scott (who is NFL bound) will play here and that makes Sparty's offense a lot more effective. Oregon has lost three straight bowl games and I see Michigan State keeping Herbert and their offense in check. 10* Michigan State

8* Pittsburgh (2:00 ET):  I think Pitt is a live dog here in the Sun Bowl. Though the regular season did not end well (B2B losses incl ACC Champ Game), Pat Narduzzi's team was improved this year after a disappointing 5-7 campaign in 2017. They won the ACC Coastal Division, going 6-2 in league play. Four of their losses were to top 10 teams - Penn State, UCF, Notre Dame and Clemson - three of those finished the regular season unbeaten! So even though the ACC was "down" this year (outside of Clemson), the Panthers won't be intimidated here by a middling Pac 12 squad as their non-conference schedule was quite the undertaking. I also imagine Pitt will be pretty motivated here as they've never won a bowl game under HC Narduzzi (last bowl win was 2013). Take the points. 

Relative to expectations, Stanford has been disappointing each of last two years. Were they to lose here, that would make it B2B 5-loss seasons. From 2010-16, they won 10+ games six times. Nothing was more emblematic of said disappointment this year than RB Bryce Love, who was hampered by both his own injuries and injuries to his offensive line. Love won't even play here in the Sun Bowl, citing the need to prepare for the NFL Draft. As disappointing as Love's numbers were this year (739 yds, 6 TDs), he'll certainly be missed Monday. In their seven Pac 12 games that weren't against UCLA and Oregon State, the Cardinal were held to 23 pts or less five times. 

Even had Love opted to play here, Pitt may very well have had the better rushing attack anyway. For the first time in school history, the Panthers boast TWO 1,000+ yard rushers, Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall. For the year, the offense averages 5.6 yards per rush attempt and 230 YPG. (For comparison, Stanford averaged just 3.7 YPC and 108 YPG w/ Love). Yes, Pitt is in off B2B blowout losses, one to Miami and the other to Clemson in the ACC Champ Game. But I still point to the fact half of their losses this year came to teams that were unbeaten in the regular season. The drought w/o a bowl victory should have them as the more motivated side while this is just a disappointing end to a disappointing season for a Stanford team playing w/o its best player. 8* Pittsburgh 

8* Pennsylvania (1:00 ET): Penn suffered a bad loss its last time out, 77-45 at Toledo. But that's nothing compared to the kind of SEASON Monmouth is having. The Hawks are on the verge of a winless 2018, having started 0-12. While a few of the losses have been close, generally speaking, the Hawks have been getting blown out with great regularity. This fall from grace has been quite ugly for the team from New Jersey and I'm not sure there's any immediate end in sight, not until MAAC play starts, at least. With Penn at home and antsy to atone for a bad loss, I see them rolling this afternoon. Lay the points.

Monmouth is one of only two teams in the country that is still winless. The other is perennial bottom-feeder Coppin State. To say that it's surprising to find the Hawks this low on the totem pole would be an understatement. They won the MAAC B2B years in 2015-16 and 2016-17 and the upperclassmen have been to the NCAA Tournament before. But after last season's disappointing finish (11-20 SU), the Hawks' best player (Micah Seaborn) decided to declare for the NBA Draft. He wasn't even picked, so it was kind of a lose-lose situation all around. Now there are reports that Monmouth HC King Rice and four reserves are able to beat the starters in scrimmages. The Hawks' confidence is clearly shot right now and I don't see them getting things fixed today. 

The Toledo team that blew out Penn is no slouch. While you never want to lose by 32, the Rockets are 12-1 SU this year. It was also a road game for Penn where they were underdogs. As a favorite, the team is a perfect 6-0 ATS. They are 5-0 SU at home. Remember, the Quakers upset defending National Champ Villanova earlier this month (I was on 'em!). They also won at New Mexico and upset Miami FL. This despite losing all-conference player Ryan Betley early in the season. This is a good team and with the blowout loss still fresh in its collective mind (happened Saturday), I fully anticipate the Quakers to roll here. They've been undervalued most of the year. A real key here is that Penn is 31st in the country in effective field goal percentage (they shoot 55.6% from the field at home!) and Monmouth is one of the worst defensive teams in the country right now at 329th in effective FG% allowed. 8* Pennsylvania 

8* Indianapolis (8:20 ET): This game will determine who gets the final playoff spot in the AFC. It could also be for first place in the AFC South if Houston were to somehow lose to Jacksonville earlier in the day (not likely). So the bottom line is the stakes could not be much higher for the final game of the NFL's regular season as the 9-6 Titans host the 9-6 Colts. You might be a bit surprised to see Indy favored on the road in this spot, but don't be as they've been the vastly superior team for the last two months, plus QB Andrew Luck has absolutely owned Tennessee in his pro career (10-0 SU against them!). The Titans are also dealing w/ uncertainty at QB as Marcus Mariota was injured last week and may not be able to play in the team's most important game of the season. Lay the points. 

Last season was a disaster for the Colts as they dipped to 4-12 SU and Andrew Luck didn't take a single snap. With Luck returning this year, the team was optimistic for a turnaround. But the season got off to an ugly 1-5 SU start and I have to admit that (like a lot of people), I essentially wrote this team off. But the Colts have put together a shocking run, winning 8 of their last 9 games, including a 38-10 beatdown of these Titans back in Week 11. Luck completed 23 of 29 passes in that blowout win for 297 yards. The Colts scored the game's first 24 pts and never looked back. Again, Luck has NEVER lost to Tennessee in his career. 

Tennessee made the playoffs last year and regardless of the result here will have put together three straight winning seasons. They've been the definition of "average" during that time, going 27-20 SU and outscoring their opponents by a total of four points. Speaking of point differential, a substantial gap exists between these two teams as the Colts are +73 this year compared to just +23 for the Titans. But the bigger deal is clearly the Mariota injury. He's reported as having a "stinger" which puts his long-term prognosis in some doubt. If the reports are true and Mariota can't go, then the Titans are left w/ Blaine Gabbert, who has NEVER played for a team w/ a winning record before this season. Compounding matters is that Tennessee is also beat up on the defensive side of the ball w/ Jurrell Casey, Brian Orakpo and Logan Ryan all out. The Colts are simply the better team here. 8* Indianapolis

10* Baltimore (4:25 ET): The Browns have been quite the exciting team since they made the correct move to dump HC Hue Jackson in the middle of the season. Led by rookie QB Baker Mayfield, the team is 5-1 SU in its last 6 six games, quintupling the number of wins the franchise had the previous two seasons combined. There is now a real sense of optimism in Cleveland for the first time in forever, though we'll have to see how the coaching situation plays out. It's also worth mentioning that none of the five teams Cleveland has beaten currently have winning records. Two of the five came against a Cincinnati team that is playing as poorly as anyone in the league right now. Wins over Carolina and Denver were basically "coinflip" type games. 

Baltimore is looking to win the AFC North here. To do so, all they need to do is win. While the Browns have made a leap from "laughingstock" to "respectable," the Ravens have gone from "mediocre" to "team no one wants to face in the playoffs." Last Saturday, they went out and turned in a very impressive performance, beating the previously red-hot Chargers 22-10 in LA. The Ravens' top-ranked defense snapped Philip Rivers' streak of 27 consecutive games w/ a TD pass and held the Chargers under 200 total yds, something that had happened only three other times in the Rivers era. The Chargers offense, which averages 6.6 yards per play (3rd highest in the league), never had a play longer than 17 yds the entire game and had just 10 pts on 12 drives. The lone LA touchdown came on a 17-yard drive after a fumble. 

The Ravens also have legit revenge here for a 12-9 loss suffered in Cleveland back in Week 5. That was a pretty even game that went to overtime and almost ended in a 9-9 tie. Both teams were also pretty different back then w/ Jackson still coaching the Browns and Lamar Jackson not yet starting at QB for the Ravens. Since Jackson replaced Joe Flacco, Baltimore has gone 5-1 SU w/ the only loss coming in OT at Kansas City. The offense has averaged a preposterous 218.8 yards rushing per game w/ Jackson as the starter. But the defense is still the bread and butter of this team as it ranks #1 in the league in both points and yards allowed. Look for them to keep Mayfield in check. With their season on the line, I look for the Ravens to win big here. 10* Baltimore 

8* Towson State (4:00 ET): Both of these teams opened Colonial play w/ a win on Friday. Towson went to Elon and beat the Phoenix 77-60 as a one-point favorite. William & Mary was here at home hosting James Madison and won by only five, 79-74, as seven-point chalk. I realize that Towson isn't exactly being picked to finish at the top of the CAA standings this year, but I also believe they are deserving of a bit more respect than they are getting here against a middling William & Mary team. The Tigers beat the Tribe both times in the regular season LY before getting ousted by them in the conference tournament. Take the points. 

Towson actually did trail Elon by nine early in the second half before storming back and winning comfortably. Over an 11-minute stretch, they outscored the Phoenix 34-8. It was a 53-point second half, led by an 8 for 12 performance from three-point range. Will they shoot that well again? The inclination is to say "no," but William & Mary is also giving up 80 PPG on the season, so the Tigers should score plenty this afternoon. Each of Towson's last four losses have been by six points or less, so they've been competitive. Last year, they came here to Williamsburg and blew out W&M 99-73 (as three-point dogs). In fact, the Tigers hung 90+ on W&M in both regular season matchups LY.

It was also not easy for William & Mary their last time out as they erased a double digit deficit in a come from behind effort against James Madison. It was the third third this season that the Tribe won a game in which they trailed by double digits. That hardly sounds like a sustainable blueprint to me. Had they not erased a 20-point deficit against St. Joe's back on 11.24 (won 87-85), then the Tribe would have been 1-8 SU to start the season. They've won three of their last four, but have yet to beat a D-I opponent this year by more than 10 points. Three of their five wins have come by five points or less. 8* Towson State

10* Appalachian State (3:00 ET): The Mountaineers come into St. Louis as pretty heavy underdogs, but I'm not exactly sure why that is. They've been more than competitive in their losses so far this year, save for a neutral court game against a good Purdue team. Other than that, ASU hasn't been beaten by more than 10 pts in any game this season! They've been off for 10 days since a confidence-building win over Milligan, a non-board team they destroyed by a score of 99-60. They're facing an opponent this afternoon that doesn't score much, so points are at premium. That makes taking the points sound like the right move to me. 

St. Louis is a really good defensive team (22nd in the country in efficiency), but that's about all the Billikens have going for them. They were humiliated their last time out, losing 81-59 at Florida State. That marked a season-high in points allowed They do own a two-point win at Seton Hall earlier in the year, but have dropped every road game since and are just 4-4 SU overall. This isn't a team I'd want to lay double digits with, given they average only 66.7 PPG on the season. Only once in the last six games have they topped that average. Sure enough, the Billikens are just 1-6 ATS as favorites this season, including 0-4 when laying 12 or more points here at home. 

These teams play at very different tempos. App State comes in averaging 85.4 PPG (13th in the country). While they also give up their fair share, the Mountaineers definitely will be looking to push the pace here in St. Louis. That could very well make the favored Billikens quite uncomfortable, especially coming after a week-long layoff. The Billikens are just 2-9 ATS when playing w/ 7 or more days rest. Though 0-7 SU on the road this season, App State is a respectable 3-4 ATS in those games. Meanwhile, St. Louis is 7-0 SU at home, but 2-5 ATS. Two of SLU's top three scorers have been struggling from the field recently while App State leading scorer Shabazz has twice gone for 29 pts in the L3 games. 10* Appalachian State

8* Over Cowboys/Giants (1:00 ET): There's not a lot on the line in these 1 PM ET kickoffs Sunday, so I'm pretty much confined to looking at totals. In the case of this NFC East rivalry, the Over has cashed five times in a row, a stark contrast to the streak of seven straight Overs before that. Dallas has clinched the NFC East and knows it will be the #4 seed (in all likelihood hosting Seattle in the Wild Card Round) so it will probably choose not to play its starters very long, if at all. The Giants are having another playoff year and without one of their top two offensive weapons (Odell Beckham Jr). But they still have Saquon Barkley and this could very well be the last ever home start Eli Manning makes in a Giants uniform. I think he (Eli) in particularly will look to go out w/ a bang. 

With the uncertainly over how much Dallas starters will play, this total is low. But HC Jason Garrett has given no indication that he plans on resting his key players, even QB Dak Prescott, RB Ezekiel Elliott or WR Amari Cooper. There is an argument that the team would not want to lose any momentum heading into the playoffs after winning six of their last seven games. Two weeks ago, they were shutout in Indianapolis, but last week bounced back w/ a 27-20 win over Tampa Bay. Elliott, in particular, has said he wants to play. I realize that the Cowboys' defense has played exceptionally well this season, but they've also given up at least 20 points each of the L3 weeks.

Manning is going to want to put on a show here, in case it is his last home game as the starting QB of the Giants. Last week, the G-Men put up 27 points on the same Colts defense that shutout Dallas. I had them as big underdogs and they led outright most of the way before giving up the GW TD in the final minute. The Giants have now scored at least 27 pts in regulation in five of the last seven games, three of those coming w/o OBJ. The defense also allowed over 400 total yards last week. With nothing tangible to gain for either side, don't be surprised to see a more "wide open" game here, certainly more so than what we saw in the Week 2 meeting, which was a 20-13 Cowboys victory. 8* Over Cowboys/Giants

8* Over Jets/Patriots (1:00 ET): New England has something to play for here, namely a 1st round bye in the playoffs. They've already clinched the AFC East for a 10th straight year, but an older team like this one would probably relish the opportunity to have next week off. Fortunately for the Patriots, they're at home this week and hosting the Jets. Just how important would a bye be to the Patriots? Well, they're the league's only unbeaten team at home (7-0) and they average an impressive 32.1 PPG in Foxboro. That number is well up from how much they average on the road (21.6 PPG) where they're only 3-5 SU. The last five meetings w/ the Jets have all resulted in Unders, but I feel New England drags this one Over by themselves if they have to. 

The Jets are perceived as a "tough out" for the Patriots, but they've only beaten them once since 2013. That was in Week 16 of the 2015 season, Todd Bowles first year as the HC here. Barring something unforeseen happening, this will be Bowles last game coaching the Jets. The team has lost 11+ games in each of the last three seasons and clearly needs new direction w/ Sam Darnold as the QB. Speaking of Darnold, he actually owns the league's highest QBR the L3 weeks. The Jets have gone Over in four straight games, averaging over 27 PPG. Last week, they lost a 44-38 shootout in overtime against Green Bay. I don't see the Jets simply "rolling over" and giving this game to the Patriots. They should have a decent offensive gameplan. 

The Under is 7-1 in the Patriots' last eight games, the one exception being that wild loss in Miami where the Dolphins lateraled their way to victory. One of the Under was against these Jets in a 27-13 victory. But I expect New England to top 30 in this one being that they are at home. Last week saw them finish w/ just 24 points against Buffalo, but that was also with a run-heavy approach in the second half simply designed to kill clock. Plus, say what you will about the Bills, but they actually have a very competent defense. The same cannot be said for the Jets, who give up almost 27 PPG and allowed 540 total yds to Aaron Rodgers last week. 8* Over Jets/Patriots

analysis soon

10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): A pair of disappointing seasons will be capped off Sunday in Tampa Bay where the Bucs host the Falcons. The season started so well for TB as they were 2-0 w/ QB Fitzpatrick setting records. But "Fitzmagic" quickly ran out of tricks and Jameis Winston doesn't seem like the guy to right this sinking ship either. HC Dirk Koetter may be coaching his final game this week. For Atlanta, their defense was decimated by injuries and the offense decimated by inefficiencies, particularly in the red zone. They're probably a better overall team compared to TB, but I don't think that means they're capable of winning on the road where their record this year is just 2-5 SU and ATS. I'll look for the home team to come through in this one as jobs are on the line. 

It's pretty shocking that the Bucs are only 5-10. As I said earlier, they were 2-0, but things quickly fell apart. Still though, they are outgaining opponents both on a per play and per game basis. They are actually third in the league in yards per game despite ranking 13th in scoring. Now the defense has largely been a disaster as it ranks 30th in scoring. But the team certainly deserved a better fate LW in Dallas when it outgained the Cowboys 382-232 (w/ 27-16 FD advantage), only to come up short on the scoreboard, 27-20. Not only did they give up a defensive TD in the game, but they were also stopped on downs inside the Dallas 10-yd line despite having it 2nd & 1 at the 2-yd line. It's been that kind of season for the Bucs, but that doesn't mean they can't win here. 

Being at home should have the Bucs as the more fired up side for this Wk 17 matchup. Both Winston and Koetter's jobs are likely on the line. Adding to the motivation is the fact the Bucs have lost to the Falcons four straight times, including a tough 34-29 setback in Atlanta back in Week 6. That's one of six losses the team has by eight points or less. The offense rolled up 500+ yards on the Falcons' D in that first meeting, but was -2 in TO's (like last week). As for the TB defense, it is MUCH better at home, giving up just 18.6 PPG as opposed to the 35.1 PPG it allows on the road. Atlanta has won each of the last two weeks, but has nothing to play for and could rest some offensive stars. 10* Tampa Bay

6* Calgary (10:05 ET): Though the price is set high (correctly so!), I love the setup for this Pacific Division matchup here. Calgary, who leads the division, will be looking to end a rare two-game losing streak. Vancouver is in the middle of the pack, but not really a very good team and I don't see them making it a 2-0 sweep here in Alberta. The Canucks just won 4-2 in Edmonton on Thursday, but got all four goals in the first period and finished w/ just 20 shots on goal. It's a much tougher opponent tonight and I like the Flames to roll.

I like this Calgary team's chances of doing damage in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. It's been over a quarter century since a Canadian franchise hoisted Lord Stanley's Cup, but this year finds both Western Conference division leaders hailing from "North of the Border." The Flames just won the battle of first place teams, in Winnipeg no less, beating the Jets 4-1 Thursday (thanks to a Johnny Gaudreau hat trick). Note that the Flames are currently the ONLY team in the league to rank in the top five for both goals scored and goals allowed. Their +27 YTD goal differential is tops in the Conference. 

These Western Canadian rivals have met twice before this season (first two games of the season) w/ the home team winning each time in a high-scoring affair. It was 7-4 Calgary the last time the Canucks came calling to the Saddledome. That's fairly "par for the course" here as the Flames rank #2 in the league in goals per game at home, trailing only Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, Vancouver has a pretty bad .890 save percentage on the road. They have not won B2B division games at any point this season and, in fact, are just 1-9 SU coming off a division game, win or lose. 6* Calgary 

10* Seton Hall (8:30 ET): There are only five remaining unbeatens in College Basketball, and of those five, I don't think there's any disputing that St. John's is the weakest team. Really, there's a pretty huge gap that exists between three of the unbeatens (Virginia, Michigan, Nevada) and the other two (Houston, St. John's). Tonight, the Red Storm are underdogs for the very first time this season as it will be just their second "true" road game. They face a Seton Hall team that has had their number in this Big East opener and I look for St. John's to fall for the very 1st time. Lay the points. 

Seton Hall is no slouch either and this isn't simply a case of being the right team at the right time. The Pirates hold a win over Kentucky this year and will come into tonight riding a five-game win streak. Three of those wins, including the one over UK (84-83), were close (as in decided by six points or less). But the Pirates have also lost a couple tight ones as well. As I stated above, they've certainly had St. John's number in this Big East rivalry, including a season sweep last year. At home, they've won and covered 12 of their previous 14 meetings with the Red Storm. This is a team that just beat Maryland on the road its last time out. 

St. John's being undefeated is simply a byproduct of the schedule as they have played one of the weakest slates of games in the entire country to this point. KenPom has their schedule rated 344th out of 353 teams in the country. That's why they're unbeaten and not even ranked at this point. Four of the team's first six wins came by four points or less and then the schedule got real soft. They should also be concerned about the fact they just allowed Sacred Hart to shoot 50% in the last game. They were able to overcome that by sinking a school record 17 three-pointers, but fate catches up with them here and Seton Hall will hand them their 1st loss. 10* Seton Hall 

10* Over Knicks/Jazz (8:05 ET): Utah's streak of Under has now reached eight in a row, but the last two have been razor-thin and I think they have a willing dance partner for an Over tonight in the Knicks. New York has been terrible defensively all year long and has given up an average of 118.8 PPG its L5 contests. What an absolutely dreadful month of basketball its been in the Big Apple w/ NY going just 2-11 in December w/ both wins coming by only two points in overtime. They were just swept in a home and home by Milwaukee, failing to score 100 in either game. 

Despite NY's recent offensive ineptitude, I think Utah has a chance to set a season-high in points scored tonight and that alone could very well lead to an Over. The Jazz do averaged 110.1 PPG at home and I'm somewhat shocked that they have a losing record here as they've outscored opponents. Coming off a poor 97-point showing vs. Philadelphia on Thursday, we should see a bounce back offensively here. They shot just 38.4% against the Sixers, who are a top 10 team in defensive efficiency this year. The Knicks rank 29th in defensive efficiency and are not used to seeing totals this low. 

The Knicks didn't shoot well in either game vs. Milwaukee, but did allow an average of 110.5 PPG. Really, that number of points allowed is kind of low for the Knicks. They've allowed at least 109 in 15 consecutive games. They've allowed an average of 115.6 PPG in December, which is fourth most in the league. Utah is going to score plenty tonight, so really this one comes down to whether or not the Knicks can top 100. I think they can as they are averaging 107.8 PPG for the season and the Over is 4-2 this year when they're a road dog of at least 12.5 points. 10* Over Knicks/Jazz

10* Over Oklahoma/Alabama (8:00 ET): The Orange Bowl will play host to the second CFP semifinal of Saturday evening as #1 Alabama takes on #4 Oklahoma. We are dealing with two of the top offenses in the country here. In fact, they rank #1 and #2 in the country in scoring w/ OU leading the way at 49.5 PPG and Bama not far behind at 47.9. The Sooners are #1 in most offensive categories while the Crimson Tide are top five. However, and rightly so, all the focus going into this game will center around the health of the two starting QBs. Oklahoma's Kyler Murray is reportedly battling an unspecified illness while Alabama's Tua Tagovailao is still recovering from the ankle injury he suffered in the SEC Championship Game. In the end, both should be fine and play well. I expect this to be a completely wild game, full of scoring. Take the Over.

If Alabama can score 35 against Georgia's defense w/ Tua not even playing a full game, then just imagine what they can do against Oklahoma' shaky stop unit. The Sooners already give up 38.5 PPG outside of Norman and allowed more than that in their last three games. Now they face not only the best offense they'll see all year, but probably the best Alabama offense of the Nick Saban era. Think about that for a minute. The Tide scored at least 45 pts in all but four games and that's after going through a SEC gauntlet that features numerous defenses that are substantially better than OU. It is not unrealistic to believe Bama can score every time they have the ball in this game. If for some reason Tua is not firing on all cylinders, the Tide have a proven "backup" in Jalen Hurts. 

With Bama likely to score at will in this game, Oklahoma will be left to play "catch up." Fortunately, Murray and company will be more than happy to oblige, even against the usual ferocious Bama defense. Oklahoma's offensive numbers are just ridiculous. The only opponent that was able to even remotely slow them down was Army, who played a brand of "keep away" that I'm not sure any other team in the country is capable of playing. In the face of very high weekly totals, Oklahoma still went 10-3 Over. (Alabama is 9-4). With the two top offenses in the country clashing here, I have zero hesitation about betting the Over, even with the high O/U line. 10* Over Oklahoma/Alabama

8* Under Cavs/Hawks (7:35 ET): This is a matchup of two of the league's worst teams and while that usually signals a lack of defense, I look for this one to stay Under the total. Certainly, this matchup is "due" for an Under after the last TEN have all gone Over. That includes a pair this season w/ the winning side scoring 133+ in each game. But for both teams tonight, this is the second game of a back and back and I expect them to be pretty tired. Cleveland scored only 94 pts in a loss at Miami last night while Atlanta had to go to overtime to overcome Minnesota.

The Hawks came out and scored a season-high 42 first quarter points last night. They would get up by as many as 22 but blew the entire lead by getting held to 47 pts over the next two quarters of play. They were pretty fortunate to win as the T'wolves committed an innumerable amount of miscues down the stretch. The game was tied 112-112 at the end of regulation, which would NOT have been an Over had the game been over. So Over bettors were lucky to get the extra five minutes last night. I don't see another 40+ pt quarter on the horizon here and it should be pointed out that the Hawks are tied for 29th in the league (next to last) in offensive efficiency. 

Cleveland plays at a slow pace, slower than all but one team (Memphis). I talked about the importance of tempo in last night's Under bet between San Antonio and Denver and we saw what happened there. Last night's Cavaliers game did go Over, but that was due to a low total. The Cavs have failed to score 100 pts in five of their last six games now, including three straight. When they beat the Hawks back on October 30th, they got a season-best 26 pts from Rodney Hood and also forced 23 turnovers, leading to 28 pts. I don't see either of those elements being present tonight. The Cavs aren't even averaging 100 PPG on the road for the year. 8* Under Cavs/Hawks

8* Under Notre Dame/Clemson (4:00 ET): The big story for this College Football Playoff semifinal is that Clemson has lost DT Dexter Lawrence to a failed drug test. Right now, Notre Dame seems to be the one semifinalist floating under the radar. Both teams in the other game (Alabama-Oklahoma) are dealing with health issues at QB. The Fighting Irish don't seem to have any issues coming into this game and should be in a far greater position to compete compared to that now-infamous showing vs. Alabama in 2012, the last time they tried to compete for a national title. Both of these teams are really strong defensively w/ Clemson having a legit claim to being the top stop unit in the country (w/ Lawrence). I don't think Lawrence's absence will end up hurting the Tigers that much - or stop this game from staying Under. 

Notre Dame only gives up 17.2 points per game. The secondary has allowed just seven touchdown passes and has 12 interceptions. Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence is very talented, but remember he's a freshman and this will obviously be the biggest game of his career. Not only are the Fighting Irish adept at defending the pass, they also allow only 3.7 yards per carry on the ground. The Irish did not allow more than 27 points in any game this year and allowed 17 or less eight times. This is a team that was an underdog only once in the regular season, the opener vs. Michigan, and that game stayed Under. So did their final two regular season games.

Clemson has the best defense in the country. Losing a player the caliber of Lawrence could be crippling for most defenses, but this one happens to have three other NFL prospects along its defensive line. The Tigers allow only 13.7 PPG, fewest in the country, and were #1 in the efficiency ratings as well. Notre Dame has not faced a defense this good all year, obviously, or one that's even close. The Tigers did have that poor showing vs. South Carolina, but allowed 200 or fewer yds in two of the last four regular season games. They allow only 2.4 yards per rush and fewer than 100 YPG over land. I don't see Clemson going "off" offensively here, so between that and their top ranked defense, Under is an easy call. 8* Under Notre Dame/Clemson

8* Under Spurs/Nuggets (9:05 ET): With all that's currently going on in the sports world, you may not have noticed that the Spurs have turned things around and are back to being a player in the Western Conference as per usual. Now they currently still sit in ninth place, but this is a crowed conference as only 3.5 games separate them from the top. What's not surprising is how San Antonio has engineered its turnaround and that is w/ improved play on the defensive end. They held seven straight opponents under 100 pts before losing to Houston last Saturday. 

Coming off the Christmas break, the Spurs rebounded w/ a win, beating Denver 111-103. Tonight is the second half of the home & home vs. the Nuggets, this time the game takes place in Denver. The Spurs held the Nuggets to just 38.9% shooting Wednesday night, their ninth straight game holding the opposition to a FG% of 43.5 or lower and their fourth straight time allowing under 39 percent. While the Nuggets should prove harder to defend tonight at home, I don't see them going 18 of 40 from three-point range again like they did on Wednesday. That's well above their average of 10 makes per game from behind the arc. 

Denver is down three starters currently - Will Barton, Paul Milsap and Gary Harris, Jr. That coupled w/ the fact that leading scorer Nikola Jokic scored only four points while attempting five shots and it's a wonder how the Nuggets lost by only eight Wednesday night. San Antonio has actually become a remarkably efficient offensive team (#2 behind Golden State), but they still play at one of the slowest paces in the league. Surprisingly, Denver actually plays at a slightly slower pace. With both teams ranking no higher than 25th in adjusted tempo, this promises to be another relatively low scoring affair and I'm on the Under. 8* Under Spurs/Nuggets

10* Washington (7:05 ET): This is a matchup of one of the league's worst teams against one of its most disappointing. Neither distinction is ideal, but I'll still take the the team that's been disappointing, yet has some good talent on hand, 9 times out of 10. In the case of the Wizards, they have the league's worst ATS record at 11-23-1 and have failed to cover 9 of their last 10 games (also just 2-8 SU). But they're still a far better side than the Bulls, who have the league's worst point differential (getting outscored by 9.5 PPG). I'll lay the points in this one. 

Washington opened December a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS. Since then, they're just 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS w/ one of the two SU wins coming in triple overtime against Phoenix. That was also the last time the Wiz played at home. Back to back poor offensive showings cost them in Indiana and Detroit, the latter loss coming Wednesday night. But this team does see a dramatic rise in scoring at home, all the way up to 118.7 PPG, a dramatic increase from what they average on the road (108.2). Washington has actually been a pretty average team when favored this year, it's when they're an underdog that they're getting blown out. This is a rare matchup where they deserve to be favored and should roll.

Chicago is predictably bad on the road where its record is just 4-13. They too lost their first game post X-Mas, in their case 119-94 to the Bulls. That loss snapped a rare two-game win streak, the first time all season that they'd won consecutive games. It was also the eighth time in the last nine games that the team failed to score 100 points. The Bulls are dead last in the league in offensive efficiency and the gap between them and the second worst team (Atlanta) is actually larger than the gap that exists between Atlanta (#29) and the 22nd team (Cleveland). Zach LaVine is set to return to a starting role tonight, but that's hardly enough for a bad team to get the job done on the road. 10* Washington

6* NY Islanders (7:05 ET): Both teams are returning to the ice tonight after extended breaks. The Islanders last played on Sunday when they went to Dallas and won 3-1, their 4th win in the last 5 games. Ottawa has been off since Saturday when they were blanked down in Washington, 4-0. It's been a long year for the Senators, who are in last place in the Atlantic and possibly the worst team in the entire Eastern Conference. The Islanders, on the other hand, are looking to keep pace w/ the top three in the Metro and really could use the two points here. They're at home and should get them.

Under HC Barry Trotz, the Isles have really turned things around defensively. They rank in the top 10 in 5 v 5 save percentage and are top five in goals allowed. While they are a somewhat disappointing 22nd in goals scored per game, Trotz's teams always overachieve and the Isles' shot percentage of 10.3% means they're making them count. Tonight is the team's first home game in nearly two weeks, so I suspect they'll be pretty fired up. While this amount of rest has hardly been ideal this season (0-3 SU record w/ 3+ days rest), look for them to lean on goaltender Robin Lehner, who has a 6-0-3 career WL record vs. the Senators. 

Ottawa has an issue in goal w/ Craig Anderson currently sidelined due to a concussion. This means either third-stringer Mike McKenna or rookie Marcus Hogberg will get the nod. Neither is a particularly inspiring choice, especially considering the Sens are already dead last in the league in goals per game (3.89) allowed and they also are giving up the most shots per game by a pretty considerable margin. The Senators are also just 4-12-1 on the road this season. Both teams are playing the front end of a back to back here and I realize the Isles have a big showdown w/ Toronto and former captain John Tavares tomorrow night. But they are pretty clearly the better team here and should win comfortably. 6* NY Islanders

10* Wright State (7:00 ET): Looking at the respective seasons of the teams involved here, you might be surprised to see one team as a clear favorite. But the bottom line is Wright State is better than its 6-7 SU record as five of those seven losses have been by 7 pts or fewer. They remain the favorite to win the Horizon League this year. Now that conference play is set to begin, I expect the Raiders to start winning and winning big. The team is 6-1 SU at home (0-6 SU on the road) and here will be facing a UIC team that they've beaten five straight times. Lay the points.

Now Wright State may have a small problem on its hands, that being the health (ankle) of Loudon Love, the team's starting center and All-Conference player. But w/o Love, the Raiders were still able to hang tough against #17 Mississippi State last Saturday, only losing 67-63 as 13.5-point underdogs. Starting in place of Love, Parker Ernsthausen had a solid game w/ 11 points, making 3 of 4 three-pointers. Ernsthausen is the team's best three-point shooter at 46.4% from behind the arc. If the Raiders are able to hang w/ a team as good as Miss State w/o Love, then they should have no problem beating UIC if he's unable to go Friday night. 

Wright State isn't the only Horizon League team that can't win on the road. UIC is 0-6 SU away from home this year, giving up a whopping 87.3 points per game. As a result, they've been beaten by an average of more than 12.3 PPG. Now let's look at how Wright State performs at home. They allow just 63.1 PPG here at the Nutter Center and have outscored opponents by 16.6 PPG. UIC's four wins this year over board teams have all been by six points or fewer, so their record could be a lot worse. Given how well Wright State defends at home and how poorly UIC plays on that end on the road, this should end in a blowout. 10* Wright State 

10* Under Auburn/Purdue (1:30 ET):  One team is likely thrilled to be here in the Music City Bowl while the other is certainly likely to view the assignment as a massive disappointment. It shouldn't take a Rhodes Scholar to find out which is which. Auburn was a preseason top 10 team that lost five regular season games while Purdue is not only back in a bowl for just the second time since 2012 (played in the Foster Farms Bowl LY), but was also able to keep its HC (Jeff Brohm) from bolting for Louisville. Auburn had its own coaching drama and while Gus Mahlzan is staying put, there are many in the fanbase that probably aren't too happy about that. 

But before simply betting Purdue based on a motivational handicap, let's be aware that the Boilermakers are definitely the less talented side here. They needed to beat Indiana for the Old Oaken Bucket in the regular season finale just to get bowl eligible. Led by the QB-WR combo of David Blough & Rondale Moore, Purdue definitely had some impressive performances this year, most notably the 49-20 win over Ohio State. But they also turned in some head-scratchers, like a home loss to Eastern Michigan and 41-10 defeat at Minnesota.  The Under was 4-1 in their road games during the regular season as not only did they score a fewer number of points per game, they also allowed a fewer number. 

The Under was also 4-1 in Auburn's road games, but in their case it was all about an offense that could only average 18.4 PPG. There will be much discussion about this Tigers' offense, which will have a new coordinator next season and a new QB. (Jarrett Stidham is leaving for the NFL after this game). But for the Music City Bowl, Mahlzan will be the playcaller. Stidham had a disappointing year w/ his numbers down across the board compared to last year. The Auburn run game was not particularly effective either, topping 130 yds just twice besides games vs. Liberty & Alabama State. Five times they were held to 103 yds or less on the ground. Mahlzan is 4-0-1 Under in bowl games as the HC here. 10* Under Auburn/Purdue 

8* San Jose (10:35 ET): Neither of these SoCal rivals went into the Holiday Break playing very well. In fact, they sport matching three-game losing streaks. For Anaheim, the swoon seemed all but inevitable. This is a team that has spent the majority of its ice time playing from behind this year. They have a negative goal differential (-14) and have gotten a level of goaltending, from John Gibson in particular, that is totally unsustainable. Gibson will have to continue carrying the club w/ Ryan Miller on the shelf and I just don't see it working out for the Ducks in the second half. 

San Jose isn't in a much better position than Anaheim right now. They are in a top three spot in the Pacific (2nd to be exact), but their lead over the 4th place Ducks is precarious at best w/ just a two-point advantage. What was most disappointing of all about the Sharks' three-game losing streak heading into the break is that every loss occurred at home. Despite said losing streak, they only have been beaten four times in regulation all year at the Shark Tank. Something to keep in mind w/ this Sharks team is that they are tied for the league lead in most losses suffered beyond regulation (7), so their record could easily be better. The L2 games both saw them fall in extra time. 

Gibson has a .926 save percentage, which ranks third among all qualifying goalies, and Anaheim leads the league in 5 v 5 save percentage. But like I said earlier, I don't think the numbers are sustainable. Meanwhile, San Jose has been doing a good job at getting shots off and possessing the puck. They've simply yet to reap the rewards as they're near the bottom of the league in shot percentage. But that should change as should their overall save percentage. Bottom line is that while these teams are pretty even in the standings, San Jose has played significantly better for the first two months of the season. Anaheim is 30th in the league in goals per game. 8* San Jose

10* Under Blazers/Warriors (10:35 ET): Both of these teams are off rather humiliating setbacks on Christmas Day. For a second time in less than week, Portland got demolished by Utah. Both games saw them held below 40% shooting while allowing the Jazz to shoot better than 55%. It was a 30-point loss at home last Friday and a 21-pt loss in Salt Lake City X-Mas night. As for Golden State, they got blown out on their home floor by the Lakers, 127-101, despite LeBron James having to leave the game early w/ a groin injury. So the stage is set for one of these to bounce back Thursday night. 

Portland has failed to break the 100-point barrier three times in its last four games. That includes both losses to Utah. They did beat Memphis 99-92 back on 12.19. Oracle Arena seems like an unlikely place for the Blazers to turn things around for all the obvious reasons (Golden State is good!), plus they are only 5-11 ATS on the road to begin with. Tuesday in Utah, Damian Lillard scored 20 points, but that was on 9 of 21 shooting, and the rest of the starting five combined to make just 12 field goals. Lillard's fellow starter in the backcourt, CJ McCollum, is in a real shooting slump right now. He had only 11 pts vs. the Jazz and has missed 15 of his last 17 three-point attempts. 

Perhaps McCollum and the Warriors' Klay Thompson can have a discussion about shooting slumps before tipoff. Because Thompson is in the midst of a bad one himself, having shot just 30.8% from the field the L4 games, including 3 for 18 from three-point range. On X-Mas, he was held to a season-low five points on 2 of 7 shooting. One positive for the Warriors is that when they hosted Portland last month, they held them under 100 points on 40.9% shooting. Something similar is certainly possible here tonight. Six of Golden State's last eight games have stayed Under the total. 10* Under Blazers/Warriors

8* Over Sixers/Jazz (10:35 ET): The Jazz have gone Under in their last seven games, but they were one score away from ending that streak Christmas night as they blew out Portland 117-96 (total was 214.5). That was the second time in less than a week that they crushed Portland, having also done so (by 30!) on the road last Friday. Tonight, they welcome in an Eastern Conference opponent that is off a pretty brutal loss on X-Mas, 121-114 in overtime at Boston. The Sixers didn't even end up covering despite having a seven-point lead in the fourth quarter.

My condolences to anyone who had the Sixers on Christmas or the Under for the matter. Neither they or the Celtics shot the ball very well (both below 42%), yet because of OT, the game went Over. That's over and done with (literally!) though and the bottom line here is I expect Philly to shoot much better tonight. Boston is #2 in the league in defensive efficiency and while that's where Utah finished last season, the Jazz have fallen a bit on that end of the floor this season. Note the Sixers shot 53% or better in three of their four games previous to Christmas. The Over is 7-4 when they are a dog this season. 

Utah's Under streak is due to end sooner rather than later. Note that the 1st meeting between these teams went Over (a similar total) even though the Jazz shot just 4 of 22 from three-point range. You have to figure they'll shoot much better than that tonight as they're at home. In the final three quarters vs. Portland Tuesday, they were 13 of 21 from three-point range. Also, they did dominate the paint in Philly, scoring 66 points there in that first meeting. If there is one concern though, it's that they allow visiting teams to shoot nearly 38% from behind the arc. 8* Over Sixers/Jazz

10* Under Baylor/Vanderbilt (9:00 ET): I think we've got a situation here where those who have looked at this matchup (Texas Bowl) see a couple of teams whose games stayed Under with a high degree of regularity in the regular season, and think the "worm is due to turn" so to speak. I can't fault that line of thinking as - often times - everything does eventually regress back to the mean. However, in the case of this Baylor-Vandy matchup, I don't see a particularly high scoring game playing out. Both teams are happy to be here, especially Baylor after everything that program has been through and they get to stay in-state as well. Take the Under here.

Vanderbilt's QB Kyle Shurmur (son of Giants' HC Pat) will more than likely become the school's all-time passing leader in this game as he needs only 118 yards to pass Jay Cutler for the honor. But Shurmur was only sixth in the SEC in passing yards per game during the regular season. When playing outside of Nashville this year, the Commodores averaged only 22.0 PPG. That number is down considerably from what they averaged at home. In the three road games vs. ranked opponents, they managed just 37 pts total. Now those games were against Notre Dame, Georgia and Kentucky, all of whom have much better defenses than Baylor. But I still think it's instructive as to how the Vandy offense is capable of faltering.

Baylor being back in a bowl so soon is pretty shocking. The Bears won just one game LY, but give credit to HC Matt Rhule for engineering a tremendous turnaround. We usually associate offense with Baylor and while this team averaged a solid 28.3 PPG, that was actually their lowest scoring average since '09, or pre-RGIII. In each of the Bears' last four losses, they were held to 17 points or less. They're without leading receiver Jalen Hurd for this bowl game and without kicker Drew Galitz. Vanderbilt has a much stronger defense than what Baylor is used to seeing in the Big 12. Both of these offenses rank in the bottom 10 nationally in red zone efficiency and I look for that to be a big factor in this game staying Under the total. 10* Under Baylor/Vanderbilt

8* Minnesota (8:35 ET): Oh, how the mighty have fallen. For most of the last decade, Chicago has been a perennial Stanley Cup contender, even winning it on three separate occasions. However, this once proud franchise hit the skids last year and has yet to recover. Usually, after a big dropoff like the one the Blackhawks experienced last year, there's a bit of a bounce back the following season. But that hasn't taken place here. In fact, things have gone from bad to worse as the team has the worst goal differential (-34) in the entire league this year and resides in the basement of the Central Division. 

Minnesota is a team fighting in the middle of the pack of the Western Conference. I still project them as a Wild Card team, but they'll have to turn things around pretty quickly as they went into the Holiday Break on a four-game losing streak. In those four losses, three of which came at home, the Wild totaled all of three goals. But I'll look for them to turn things around offensively against an opponent that ranks 30th in the league in goals allowed. Chicago has a major issue between the pipes right now w/ Corey Crawford sidelined w/ another concussion. Cam Ward is hardly a viable long-term option and Collin Delia remains unproven. 

The Wild will have a significant edge on special teams in this game as do most Blackhawks' opponents. That's because Chicago's special teams are just horrible. They rank 30th on the power play and dead last in penalty killing. Minnesota went 0 for 3 on the PP in their last game, a 2-1 overtime loss to Dallas. Obviously, that cost them dearly. But if they were to get that many opportunities again w/ the man advantage here, there will be a breakthrough. The Wild are 4-1 playing w/ 3+ days rest this year (Chicago is 0-3) and Devan Dubnyk will give them a significant edge in goal.  8* Minnesota 

8* Over Miami/Wisconsin (5:15 ET): There is quite a bit to unpack here for this year's New Era Pinstripe Bowl. First off, what makes this particular Bowl Game different is that it's played at Yankee Stadium, meaning cold temperatures are a factor. That has played into the narrative that Wisconsin will have an advantage as their opponent hails from the much warmer climate. But be aware that these teams met last year in the Orange Bowl, where you'd think Miami would have had the significant edge (a virtual home game!) and the Badgers won there, 34-24 as six-point favorites. Lastly, Miami announced yday that it will be going back to Malik Rosier as the starting QB, as opposed to N'Kosi Perry, who had started the final three regular season games.

Wisconsin seems like the popular side here, but this Badgers team wasn't quite up to par this year. They entered 2018 as a National Title Contender and had a schedule that appeared tailor-made for an unbeaten run. Instead, they lost five games and didn't even win their division. In three of the five losses, they allowed 30+ points. Overall, this year's defense was simply not what we are used to seeing out of Madison, a theme for this game. But on offense, I look for the Badgers to have plenty of success running the ball in this game. Behind one of the top offensive lines in the nation, they'll feed RB Jonathan Taylor, who led all RB's in rushing yardage this season, averaging 166 per game. Miami is w/o its best run stopper - Gerald Harris -for this game.

There will probably be an overreaction in the marketplace to Rosier starting in place of Perry for Miami. For our purposes, the move is great. The Under was 3-0 in Perry's three starts. Overall, Miami has gone Under in its last six games. But the Over was 5-1 in their first six games, all w/ Rosier under center, so don't fall victim to any recency bias. Wisconsin will also be w/o one of its top defenders, LB Ryan Connelly, here. These teams blew past the total in LY's Orange Bowl and are more than capable of doing it again here w/ an even lower number. I think the cold weather is overrated in handicapping this game as it shouldn't stop either offense from scoring. 8* Over Miami/Wisconsin 

10* TCU (9:00 ET): This is the Cheez-It Bowl (formerly the Arizona Bowl), which is being held at Chase Field in Phoenix, home of MLB's Diamondbacks. It has the lowest total of any bowl game this year (or in recent memory) as TCU takes on Cal. TCU had a very disappointing regular season (as is evident by a 3-8-1 ATS record). But they proved they belong here by winning their final two games, over Baylor and Oklahoma State, both in pretty convincing fashion. So the Horned Frogs definitely want to "be here" Wednesday night against a Cal team that's going bowling for the 1st time since 2015 (just 2nd since '11). That'll have the Bears motivated as well, but I question their offense as well as the lasting effect losing to rival Stanford (final reg season game) may have had. 

TCU's offense wasn't exactly pretty either. Playing in a league (Big XII) not known for defense, the Horned Frogs still averaged only 24.7 PPG and that number is obviously lower when taking out the non-conference games. But, as per usual, Gary Patterson's team can play some defense. They give up just 24.4 PPG and that's an impressive number after running the Big XII slate. Look at who some of TCU's losses were to (Ohio State, Oklahoma, Texas, WVU) and you'll gain a better appreciation for this team. They were in every game besides the one vs. Oklahoma. They outgained opponents on a yard per play/game basis and should be improved next year as well. My number indicate they should be about a field goal favorite here. 

Cal's "Big Game" vs. Stanford had to be moved to the end of the regular season this year due to wildfires that were ravaging the area at the time. For Cal, it was two additional weeks to think about ending an eight-year losing streak in the rivalry. They ended up losing to the Cardinal, 23-13, and that final score is somewhat misleading in the sense that the Bears scored their only TD w/ 10 seconds to go. Cal, statistically, has a better defense than TCU. But I have tremendous concerns about an offense that averages less than 200 yards passing and was held to 15 pts or fewer in five of its final seven regular season games. The Bears went just 4-5 SU against a mediocre Pac 12 and were 4-2 SU overall in one-score games. I like TCU here. 10* TCU

10* Over Pacers/Hawks (7:35 ET): Indiana is on an incredible run of Unders lately w/ 13 of their last 14 games going that way. During this time, they've turned it on defensively, holding 10 of the last 11 opponents to 42.2% shooting or lower. It's not like Atlanta, tonight's opponent, is a huge threat to shoot the lights out here, but they are shooting a respectable 45% for the year at home and averaging 110 PPG. Plus, like most bad teams, the Hawks aren't good defensively as they allow nearly 118 PPG, which is second most in the entire league. I'm on the Over in this one. 

One particular area when the Hawks struggle to defend is the three-point line as opponents are making 37.5% from there for the year. That's the second highest percentage allowed in the league and is especially problematic for tonight as Indiana is making 37.0% of its threes for the year, which is top five in the league. These teams did play last month and it was still a low-scoring game. Indiana won 97-89 even though they were a strong 12 of 30 from three-point range. The key was they were just 23 of 58 (39.6%) from two-point range, which is highly irregular. Atlanta also shot very poorly overall, making only 35.6% of its field goal attempts, including 27.6% from 3-pt range. 

That last meeting was in Indiana. The average Hawks' home game far exceeds what the O/U line for tonight's contest is. By the way, I should probably mention that the Hawks have won a season-high three straight games. They may be w/o leading scorer & rebounder John Collins and while the team's last game w/o him was quite low-scoring, I look for a different scenario to play out here. With this game taking place the day after X-Mas, don't be surprised if both sides aren't at their most intense on the defensive end. All three games during the Hawks win streak have stayed Under. But not only have they not won four in a row this year, they've never gone Under in four straight either. 10* Over Pacers/Hawks

8* Orlando (7:05 ET): The Suns headed into the X-Mas break playing - easily - their best ball of the season as they're currently riding a six-game ATS win streak. They've also won four of those six games straight up, though they lost the last two. Getting top two scorers - Devin Booker and TJ Warren - both back was the catalyst for the turnaround as the team was getting routinely blown out when both were simultaneously sidelined. This is not a great spot for the team from out West as it's the finale of a 5-game Eastern Conference road trip that overlapped the Holiday. I'm going to lay the short number, even though Orlando has been struggling after its own "unique trip." 

Two weeks ago, the Magic headed down to Mexico for a couple of games and won them both, beating Utah and Chicago in a couple of low-scoring affairs. But since they returned to the States, things have not gone well w/ three consecutive double-digit losses. The most recent was here at home, 115-91 to Miami, extra critical because it put the Magic 1.5 games behind the Heat for the "coveted" 8th position in the Eastern Conference. Offensively, the team has struggled lately, but I think that'll turn around here as they face the team w/ the 4th lowest defensive efficiency rating in the league. 

Phoenix isn't very good on the offensive end either, ranking 28th in the league there. At the end of the day, 4-2 SU record the L6 games or not, the Suns are not a good road team and not getting nearly enough points here. They're just 3-15 SU on the road, getting outscoring by 11.5 PPG. When these teams met out in Phoenix last month, Orlando was a four-point favorite and won 99-85. So you can see they're a pretty strong value, by comparison, here at home. That was one of the games the Suns were w/o both Booker and Warren. Still though, I think tonight's line is an overadjustment based on recent form. I look for the Magic to turn it around. 8* Orlando

8* Over Blazers/Jazz (10:35 ET): Utah just trounced Portland 120-90 (in Portland!) four days ago, so you can bet the Blazers are out for revenge. But this game takes place in Salt Lake City and the Blazers are just 1-7 ATS their L8 road games. I do think the pointspread is a bit inflated, but it's the total that I believe is offering more value in this final matchup of the NBA's five-game Christmas slate Tuesday. It's easily the lowest O/U line of the five games and when you look at how many points are typically being scored in Portland games this season (221.1) and that Utah is averaging over 110 PPG at home, I think you have a clear sign that Over is the way to go here.

The last couple seasons have seen the Jazz be one of the more staunch teams in the league at the defensive end. But they've slipped from 2nd (last year) in defensive efficiency to 6th (this year). That may not seem like a huge drop, but truthfully they've recently risen up the efficiency rankings thanks to performances like the one they had in Portland Friday night. They held the Blazers to 40% shooting for the game and to their second lowest point total of the season to date. But I expect an offensive bounce back from the Blazers in this one. They already did bounce back a bit in a 121-118 overtime win over Dallas on Sunday, including a 37-point second quarter. Really, the Blazers should have finished off Dallas in the regulation as they had a 14-pt 2H lead. 

Utah comes into this game on a six-game Under streak, but a lot of those games had higher totals than this one. The Jazz have held four of their last six opponents to a FG% of 40.2 or less, but I do NOT project that to be the case here as Portland comes in 48.0% its L5 games despite what happened in the head to head meeting Friday night. Also, the Jazz should start to improve offensively. They beat both Portland and Golden State in a three-day span despite SG Mitchell missing 30 of his 36 field goal attempts! The last three times these teams have played, the game has gone Under, but I like this one to go Over. 8* Over Blazers/Jazz 

8* Golden State (8:05 ET): The NBA's marquee battle on Christmas features the first meeting between LeBron and the Warriors since the former jumped ship to the Lakers. The LeBron-led Lakers are having a pretty good season thus far as they currently sit tied for 4th in the Western Conference at 19-14 SU. They've played better than .600 ball since an 0-3 SU start, but do enter this game off a loss. I played against them Sunday night vs. Memphis, thinking it was a clear lookahead and sure enough that's what it was as LA was upset by the Grizzlies, 107-99 as 5-pt chalk. The lookahead may be over, but my view is the Lakers are still outclassed here and I'm going to lay the points w/ the Warriors, who are in the rare role of "contrarian" favorite. 

The three-time NBA Champion Warriors don't seem quite as invincible this season as in year's past, but what's scary for the rest of the West is that they're still tied for first place in the conference. Injuries, more than anything else, have hampered the Dubs. But they're back at full strength for this National TV showdown and I believe eager to show they've still "got it." They too were in a bit of a lookahead Sunday night, hosting the Clippers, and failed to cover in a 129-127 victory. Golden State is now just 1-6 ATS its last seven games, but that's helped to reduce this line. The Warriors are still 15-3 SU at home and averaging 116.5 PPG. The lead the league in offensive efficiency, as per usual. 

Remember that James has not had much success against Golden State since his Cavaliers pulled off a monumental upset in the 2016 NBA Finals. James' record in his L12 games vs. GSW is 1-11 SU (2-10 ATS) w/ that one SU victory coming down 0-3, at home, in the '17 Finals. You could make the case that he's got a better supporting cast now than he did in Cleveland. But two of the Lakers' big men - JaVale McGee and Tyson Chandler - are questionable for this game due to illness. Steph Curry and Kevin Durant just went for a combined 77 pts against the Clippers and have combined to average 58.2 PPG this year. I would expect a big game here from Klay Thompson (who has been in a mini-shooting slump the L6 games) as well. Be wary of the popular underdog. 8* Golden State

10* Over Thunder/Rockets (3:00 ET): I realize that Unders have been the way to go on these NBA X-Mas Day affairs, in years' past. But the 2018-19 season has seen an influx of scoring and I believe we're gonna see the trend reversed this year in a couple games, including this one featuring Thunder-Rockets. Little can be ascertained from looking at the only other time these teams played this season, which was back on November 8th. Russell Westbrook didn't play for OKC, yet the Thunder still won easily, 98-80 as five-point home underdogs. So maybe there is one thing we can ascertain and that's OKC is the better team here. I do believe that to be the case still, but the Rockets are a little different now than they were in November as well. Over is the call here. 

Back when these teams first met, Houston had yet to make the call to put perpetual loser Carmelo Anthony on ice. Deactivating Anthony has definitely been a case of "addition by subtraction" for the Rockets this season. He certainly didn't help in OKC last month, missing 10 of 11 shots. Now Houston must also overcome the loss of another key player, Chris Paul, for this X-mas Day showdown. James Harden is going to have to carry the workload, but that's okay as he's been averaging nearly 40 PPG in the team's last six contests. Also, the underrated Clint Capella is helping out w/ three 20+ pt efforts in the L5 games. At home, I can tell you the Rockets are a lock to improve upon their three-points shooting from the 1st meeting where they went 11 of 42.

Houston averages 112.7 PPG at home. So even though OKC is #1 in the league in defensive efficiency, I'll look for the Rockets to score their "share" here. As for the Thunder, Paul Georgia is averaging 34.3 points the L6 games and Westbrook has posted a triple double in three of the last four games. This month, they've scored no fewer than 107 pts in 10 of 11 games. One bad quarter (17 pts) cost them Sunday vs. Minnesota. They scored a total of 95 pts in the other three quarters. In that first meeting w/ the Rockets, all five starters were in double figures by the end of the third quarter. They scored 59 pts in the 1H, but just 39 in the 2nd as the game was out of hand. I expect a more competitive - and certainly higher scoring game - this time around. 10* Over Thunder/Rockets

10* Over Broncos/Raiders (8:15 ET): Nothing will be on the line Monday night (X-mas Eve) except pride in the AFC West as these two longstanding rivals meet for the second time in 2018. Neither the Broncos nor Raiders made the playoffs LY and both are already out of contention for this season. For Oakland, they've been out of contention for some time as Jon Gruden's first year back at the helm has not gone well, to say the least. The Silver and Black are 3-11 SU and have become a total rebuilding project, although one now has to wonder exactly WHERE that rebuilding might take place. Tonight could be the final NFL game EVER in Oakland as the team's immediate future is in serious turmoil w/ the city suing the team over its decision to bolt for Las Vegas. Spirits could be high in the stadium Monday night and will have little to do w/ the holidays. 

Denver at least improved some this season. They, in fact, were even in serious playoff contention up until two weeks ago. But B2B losses to the 49ers and Browns (were favored in both games) have them at 6-8 SU. This is a team that last month beat the Chargers and Steelers in successive games. So it's no surprise that they're favored again this week, especially considering they beat the Raiders all the way back in Week 2, 20-19. That game saw the Broncos rally back from a 12-point deficit. They did not cover though as 5.5-pt chalk. If you're looking for a storyline from the Denver side going into this game - HC Vance Joseph's future is (and should be) very much in doubt. 

The Broncos stumbling each of the L2 wks can probably be tied to the fact they lost a key player on both sides of the ball - WR Emmanuel Sanders and CB Chris Harris, Jr. The defense has remained fine, but the offense has scored a grand total of just 30 pts. The Broncos' last six games have all stayed Under as have their L4 meetings w/ the Raiders. Oakland has the 4th lowest scoring offense in the league. But despite all that you've just read, I believe this MNF total is too low and we're going to see more of a shootout between two teams that have little (but pride) to play for. There have been only three Denver games this year w/ a total of 43 pts or less and the Over is 3-0 (Under is 11-0 in all other games!). The Raiders' defense gives up almost 30 PPG and the Over is 2-0 when the total is 43 pts or lower in their games this season. 10* Over Broncos/Raiders

8* Memphis (9:35 ET): The Lakers have a huge X-Mas Night showdown w/ the Warriors (1st time LeBron faces them this year) to look forward to while Memphis has revenge and will be looking to snap a season-worst five-game losing streak (also 0-5 ATS) here. In other words, the situation totally favors the Grizzlies, who will not be playing on X-Mas and are simply trying to avoid a winless road trip. Despite Memphis recently hitting the skids, I still rate these teams fairly evenly in a crowded Western Conference and will be taking this points in this one. 

Four of Memphis' five losses have been by eight points or less, the exception coming at Golden State. Friday saw the Grizz lose out in Sacramento, 102-99, despite holding the Kings to just 37.5% shooting. It was a game they led by 13 at the half and by nine going into the 4Q. Though offense has been an issue recently (eight straight games w/o scoring 100 pts), motivation will be not be tonight. Memphis was blown out by the Lakers, at home, earlier this month by a score of 111-88. In terms of margin that was the Grizzlies' second worst defeat of the season. Only the season opener at Indiana topped it. 

Though we'd obviously like to start seeing Memphis score more, note that their low point totals are often related to the pace at which they play, the slowest in the entire league (in terms of # of possessions per game). Defensively, there are no issues as they've held virtually every opponent under its season average in PPG this year. They are top five in defensive efficiency and #1 in the Western Conf in points allowed. The Lakers are generally not that sound defensively and are in a massive lookahead against a highly motivated underdog. All signs point to a Grizzlies' cover here. 8* Memphis

10* Seattle (8:20 ET): While the Seahawks' secondary appears beaten up at the absolute worst time, they can still lean on the fact they have QB Russell Wilson and are a ridiculous 16-2 SU at home in primetime games under HC Pete Carroll. This is a huge game for both sides as Kansas City is trying to maintain the top spot in the AFC (could be one-half game back of the Chargers by kickoff) and Seattle is trying to lock down a Wild Card spot over in the NFC. I've taken Seattle a couple of times already in primetime games this year, citing short lines, and now I can grab them as a dog! Take the points. 

The two previous times I've taken Seattle in primetime games this year were a Thursday nighter vs. Green Bay (pushed as 3-pt favorites) and a Monday nighter vs. Minnesota (covered easily in a 21-7 win). In my analysis for both games, I cited the cheap price on them at home. Well, now they're a home dog, which you simply do not see very often. They were once earlier this year and I took them in that spot as well, getting almost a full TD against the Rams. They covered in a game they led much of the way (but eventually lost 33-31). They are now a perfect 5-0 ATS in the Russell Wilson "era" (2012-) as a home dog, winning four of those games outright. 

The health of Seattle's secondary will probably be a major focus going into Sunday night and it should be. But, for what it's worth, Carroll believes two of the questionable players are going to see the field. Remember this is a group that still has been able to find its way despite the loss of Earl Thomas early in the year. To me, the bigger question is Kansas City's defense, which is one of the worst in the entire league. In their last road game, the Chiefs gave up 33 points to a horrible Raiders team. They are 31st in the league in yards allowed per game. The poor defense has certainly contributed to the team's 0-4-1 ATS record its L5 games. Seattle's offense is ninth in the league in scoring. 10* Seattle

10* Cleveland (6:05 ET): These two teams will enter Sunday tied for having the worst SU record in the league (8-25 SU). That hardly makes this an attractive matchup on paper, but I see no reason why Cleveland wouldn't be favored at home here, at least by by the "token" three points. There's no reason to believe the Bulls are any better, let alone definitively enough where they'd be close to a pick 'em on the road. The Bulls did win Friday, 90-80 over Orlando, but are just 1-5 ATS/0-6 SU this year when off a SU win as a dog. In fact, they haven't won B2B games all season.

Cleveland got off to a very ugly 2-14 SU start after LeBron James left them "high and dry" for a second time. Truthfully, things haven't gotten a ton better over the L17 games, but they're a more respectable 6-11 SU during that span. They've beaten some good teams too; like Indiana on Tuesday. Tonight is the Cavs' return home after a difficult three-game trek, which also saw them have to stop in Milwaukee and Toronto. Playing the Pacers, Bucks and Raptors, all on the road in a four-night span, is about as tough a trip as their is in the Eastern Conference right now. 

Predictably, both of these teams are better at home than on the road. That's yet another reason I have Cleveland favored here. In addition to matching overall SU records, these teams have the same records at home (5-12 SU) and on the road (3-13 SU). The Bulls are being outscored by 11.4 PPG as the road team this year. They're also being outscored by a whopping 22.4 PPG off a win. Cleveland has revenge here for a one-point loss in the Windy City (as 4.5-pt dogs) last month. While Chicago has a hot Lauri Markkanen, they are still short-handed w/ both Bobby Portis and Zach LaVine out again. 10* Cleveland

8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Fair warning - we're going w/ some "ugly" teams in this week's 3-pack. But this being late in the year, oddsmakers are starting to make you pay a "premium" for teams in "must win" situations. Case in point, Miami. Somehow, someway, the Dolphins have managed to stay in playoff contention despite a horrible YTD point differential (-79) that is actually 4th WORST in all of the league. This trend goes back even further. Over the last three seasons, Miami has a 23-23 SU record, but has been outscored by a stunning 208 points during that time. This is no legit playoff contender and I don't think they should be laying this many points to anyone, even a down-on-its luck Jacksonville team.

Last week, I played against the Dolphins as an underdog. It was a big play of Minnesota, my 10* Game of the Month in fact. The game was never really close as the Vikings jumped out to a quick 21-0 lead and wound up winning 41-17. It was quite emblematic of the Dolphins' season. While their seven wins have all been by eight points or less, six of their seven losses have been by double digits. Three of their last four wins have been by four points or less, one coming in overtime and another coming on the miracle play against the Patriots. Now they have to go w/o RB Frank Gore, their top offensive player. Gore averaged 4.6 yards per carry and his production will be tough to replace. 

This has been a disastrous season for Jacksonville, one that will in all likelihood lead to the franchise moving on from coach Doug Marrone and QB Blake Bortles. No team will have a bigger drop in wins from last season. But as bad as things have gotten, the Jags typically lose close. Like last week, when they gave the game away against Washington and lost 16-13. It was their fourth loss by four points or less since November 11th. They still have a defense that allows just 20.6 PPG. While out of it, I still rate Jacksonville slightly better than Miami. Note the Dolphins have been favored only three times all year and never by more than 3.5 points. 8* Jacksonville

8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): These teams were on opposite ends of shutouts last week. The G-Men were blanked, at home, by Tennessee. Indianapolis turned in perhaps its finest performance of the season w/ a 23-0 blanking of the Cowboys. Remember what I said about this 3-game report containing some "ugly" picks? Well, this is another one. As hot as the Colts have been (won 7 of 8), I'm unconvinced that they should be laying this many points against anyone. While they've been favored six times during the win streak, never have they been asked to lay more than a touchdown and in that instance it was against Buffalo. Again, we have an instance where oddsmakers are asking you to pay a premium on a team in a "must win" spot for playoff contention. I'll take the points. 

The G-Men couldn't score w/o Odell Beckham last week, but I think they'll find an easier time here against the Colts' defense. I say that knowing full well the Colts have allowed 6 pts or fewer in two of the last three games. They may no longer have Beckham, but they do have Saquon Barkley (1800 total yds) to lean on. Also, remember that two weeks ago the Giants scored 40 points w/o OBJ and that was against what is still a pretty good Redskins' defense. This is a Giants team that also beat Chicago three weeks ago.  Three of the Colts last five victories have been by a field goal. Also, the Giants are 6-1 ATS on the road this season w/ three outright upsets. 

My raw numbers have this line closer to six points. That's a lot of value. This is similar to the other two games in this report where the team facing a "must win" is being overvalued. The Colts have a huge showdown w/ the Titans next week that could very well determine the last seed in the AFC playoffs. They'll be a better value in that matchup. 8* NY Giants 

8* Detroit (1:00 ET):  We look to hit the trifecta here w/ yet another team getting serious value. Detroit cashed for me last week, even in a loss to lowly Buffalo. I said the Bills shouldn't be favored and while they won, the price was too high. Don't be surprised to see a similar result transpire this week. The Vikings, in desperate need of a win here, are laying about a field goal more than they should. At 7-6-1, they currently occupy the final playoff spot in the NFC. But it's a precarious lead. As motivating as that situation may be, I don't see them winning by more than a touchdown here. Take the points. 

Minnesota was my *10* Game of the Month last week. But they were at home and facing a Miami team I have little to no regard for (see Jacksonville writeup!). You may ask why I'd have more regard for a 5-9 Lions team. Well, they're at home this week and getting roughly the same number Miami did LW in Minnesota. This despite a YTD point differential that's significantly better. A decimated Lions offense has had its trouble scoring in recent weeks, but be aware that they've lost by more than a TD only one time in the last five games and that was to a Rams team that scored late. 

The Vikings put up 41 last week, but that was after scoring a total of just 17 pts the two weeks prior. When it comes to winning big games, QB Kirk Cousins does not exactly have the finest resume. Minnesota has been favored twice on the road this year (1-1 ATS), but never by more than a field goal. Consider that they were asked to lay only three against the Jets, who are certainly a worse team that Detroit. This is a division game and the final home game for the Lions, so they should "show up." They have revenge for a poor showing in Minnesota back in Week 9 and aren't often a dog in this price range in their own stadium. 8* Detroit

10* Over Bucs/Cowboys (1:00 ET): Before the season started, Tampa Bay is a team whose games I projected to be among the highest scoring in the league this year. I saw plenty of potential with the offense - no matter who the QB was - while the defense looked pretty suspect. For the first half of the season, high scoring is precisely how Bucs games played out. The first five games, and seven of the first eight, went Over the total. It didn't matter if it was Jameis Winston or Fitzmagic at QB. But something has changed over the last month. The offense has kind of gone into the toilet and the L4 games have all stayed Under the total. But the defense remains pretty bad, particularly on the road. This week, they're facing an offense that can absolutely exploit them. Take the Over here.

Now, when I say the Bucs are facing an offense that can exploit them, you wouldn't guess the Cowboys based on their performance LW. For the first time since '03, they were shutout as in 23-0 by the Colts. It was a shocking result for a Dallas team that came into that game riding a 5-game SU and ATS win streak. The offense had been pretty much rolling behind QB Dak Prescott, particularly since WR Amari Cooper came on board. RB Ezekiel Elliott (leads NFL in rush yds) was doing his usual damage as well. But the Colts defense held them scoreless to less than 300 total yards. One thing to consider, however, is that the Indy D plays a lot of zone. The Prescott-Cooper combination had largely been excelling against man to man looks. 

Definitely look for the Dallas offense to bounce back this week. Tampa Bay allows a frightening 37.0 PPG on the road this season, which is why they're 1-6 SU in such games. They are also still 28th in YPG allowed. This Bucs' defense plays a lot of man to man as well, so we should see more favorable matchups for Cooper in the Cowboys passing game. While a TB offense that has scored just 26 total pts the L2 wks is going up against a tough Dallas defense, they do get back WR Desean Jackson this week. Note that the Over is 13-3 in the Bucs' last 16 road games and 5-1 in the Cowboys' past six home games. 10* Over Bucs/Cowboys

10* Under Mavericks/Warriors (8:35 ET): Dallas doesn't figure to fare too well tonight. They're 0-8 straight up their last eight road games w/ a total of 220 pts or higher. They're big underdogs here at Golden State. In addition to that, they come in riding a four-game losing streak. Three of those losses have taken place on the road, where they're significantly weaker. At home, the Mavs are a strong 13-3 SU on the year. But on the road, they're just 2-12 SU. However, I'm going to concentrate on a different trend tonight and that's the fact Dallas hasn't gone Over in four straight games all season. Take the Under. 

Golden State is probably as healthy as they've been all season. But that didn't prevent them from getting beat 108-103 out in Utah Thursday night. They were held to 40 percent shooting overall, including 32 percent from three-point range in another low-scoring effort. The Under is now 5-1 in the Dubs' last six games and they've been held to 110 pts or fewer in four of those games. Dallas may certainly not be as staunch as Utah, but I think they can keep the Warriors in relative check tonight.

I mentioned above that Dallas has not gone Over in four straight games all year. Well, they come into this game on a three-game Over streak. Not only are they 2-0 Under when off three straight Overs this season, but they're 10-2 in the situation the L3 seasons. When these teams faced off last month, it was a 112-109 Mavs win in Dallas (GSW not as healthy at the time). The O/U line for this game is about 10 points higher than it was for last month's, which seems to be an overadjustment by the linesmakers. The Under is 9-4 this season in Golden State home games where the total is 220 pts or higher. 10* Under Mavericks/Warriors

10* Under Buffalo/Troy (7:00 ET): The Dollar General Bowl is a bit of a tough assignment for Buffalo. Not only are they playing a virtual road game (Troy to Mobile is less than a 3 hr drive), but they're still trying to get over the pain of blowing a 19-point lead to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game. That 30-29 loss definitely still stings, but the Bulls still have a chance here to record their 11th victory of the season, which would be a single-season record for the program. This is a matchup of two of the better Group of 5 teams and I don't think motivation will be an issue for either side. Thus, this won't be one of those bowl games without any defense. I'm on the Under.

Troy is going for its third straight 10-win season, which would be a first in the history of the program. Rather quietly, the Trojans have won 20 of their last 24 games, including a 2-0 mark in bowl under HC Neal Brown. But the offense didn't exactly have the most explosive finish to the regular season, scoring a combined 22 points in the final two games. The Troy offense is operating w/ a backup QB, Sawyer Smith, who took over for the injured Kaleb Barker in the middle of the season. In those final two regular season games, the Trojans' offense gained just 220 and 232 total yards. One of those games was against Texas State, at home!

What Troy can and will lean on here is an excellent defense. The Trojans give up just 21.2 PPG and that number drops considerably when you take out the 59 they allowed at Boise State in the season opener. Since that season opener, they have not allowed more than 27 in any game. They've allowed 21 or fewer in 10 of 12 games. We know Buffalo has an explosive offensive, but Northern Illinois shut them down in the 2nd half of the MAC Title Game and that may be the blueprint Troy needed for stopping the Bulls here. Buffalo is no slouch defensively either as they allow just 24.7 PPG. I look for this to be one of the lower scoring games of the entire bowl season. 10* Under Buffalo/Troy

10* Washington (4:30 ET): I admit that this is a bit of an "ugly" play, but I'm going to stick with my numbers here. The numbers say Tennessee is way overvalued here and that's likely due to the combination of the "must-win" nature of the game for them (to stay viable in the playoff hunt) and the fact the Redskins are starting third-string QB Josh Johnson. But Johnson did lead the 'Skins to a victory last week, 16-13 over the Jaguars, in his first NFL start in seven seasons. Also, just because Tennessee "must win" here, doesn't mean they will cover. Washington, believe it or not, is also still alive in the playoff hunt. Take the points. 

Tennessee is not built to cover a spread this large. They average only 19.1 PPG and while it was shutout win last week (17-0 over the Giants), we usually don't see them win by that kind of margin. The Titans have only been favored in 4 of 13 games this season. Three of those instances are the last three weeks! While they beat the Giants and Jags by a combined 47-9 margin the L2 wks, remember they were also "tooth and nail" w/ the Jets here at home three weeks ago. Five of their eight wins this season have been by four points or less. This figures to be a low-scoring game and that makes taking the points an attractive option. 

Obviously, the focus for the Redskins defense here will be stopping RB Derrick Henry, who ran over both the Giants and Jags. But consider that the number of rushing yards Henry has the L2 wks (408) accounts for nearly half his season total. Titans QB Marcus Mariota did not thrown a TD pass in either game. Johnson actually looked fairly competent for Washington LW, completing 16 of 25 passes in a come from behind effort to beat Jacksonville. The Redskins have a good defense that can keep them in this one. Meanwhile, Tennessee's defense just lost a key piece w/ CB Logan Ryan suffering a broken leg. The only time the Titans have been favored by more than a TD this year was the Jets game when they won by only four. Oddsmakers are making you pay a premium on them here. 10* Washington

6* Calgary (4:05 ET): All signs point to an easy win for the Flames Saturday afternoon at the Saddledome. This is a team that has really dominated its opponents here on home ice. They average 4.3 gpg at home for the year, which is most in the league. They are coming off a rare home defeat, 5-4 to Tampa Bay, but that game was decided in a shootout and the Lightning are the best team in the league right now. Saturday's opponent, St. Louis, resides at the bottom of its division. The Flames are a strong 9-1 SU this season after allowing 4+ goals in their previous game. 

St. Louis is at the end of a three-game trek through Western Canada. While things started nicely w/ a 4-1 win at Edmonton on Tuesday, the good times didn't last long as the Blues fell 5-1 in Vancouver Thursday night. For the year, the Blues have just five road wins, which is fourth fewest in the league. Their biggest problem when going on the road has been lack of scoring. They average just 2.2 goals per game on the road, tied for third fewest in the league. With Calgary doing such an excellent job at limiting shots, I don't see how the Blues score very many this afternoon.  

So, not only does Calgary score the most goals per game at home, they also allow the fewest number of shots per game. That's a winning combination. And it's not like they need the home ice edge to dominate the Blues. Just last week, they won out in St. Louis, 7-2. That blowout victory saw the Flames score four times in the first period and never look back. They've lost back to back games since, but this is just the third time they've been on a losing streak of any kind all season. They've lost three in a row just one time and that was back in late October. 6* Calgary 

8* Virginia (2:00 ET): Two more teams (Buffalo, Furman) fell from the ranks of the unbeaten last night, leaving just six left in the country. Counted among them is #5 Virginia, a team that has won 41 of its last 44 games overall. While it it going to take a LONG time to wash away the stench of that historic loss in LY's NCAA Tournament (first #1 seed to ever lose to a #16), the bottom line is that Tony Bennett's Cavaliers remain one of the premier teams in the country. William & Mary won't be any match for them this afternoon in Charlottesville. Lay the points.

So far, the Hoos are 10-0 and outscoring teams by 21.1 PPG. That average margin of victory is basically what we're looking for here and we should get it (and then some) due to the combination of Virginia's own defense and W&M's lack of it. The Hoos are #1 in the country in scoring defense (as per usual), giving up just 51.3 points per game. They're even stingier here at home where they are allowing only 46.6 PPG! The only team to crack 60 against them so far was Maryland and that was a "true" road game. Four of their five visitors have not scored 50.

William & Mary can score. They come in averaging 77.3 PPG. But that's also skewed due to games against lesser competition, like their last one against William Peace College where they scored 106. Note that the Tribe has faced one top 20 defense in efficiency this year (Old Dominion) and was held to 53 points on the road. This is very likely to be worse. Then you have the fact that William & Mary comes in allowing 81.3 PPG. So in addition to their usual brand of defense, UVA should score plenty Saturday afternoon, giving this the potential to be one of the bigger blowouts on today's card. 8* Virginia

8* Drexel (1:00 ET): This battle of Philly schools may not be as lopsided as it appears. Temple, while 9-2 SU, has won a LOT of close games so far. Already, they have four wins by four points or less. Only three of their nine wins have come by a margin greater than eight points. While it's nice to have such wins "in the bag," it's also not sustainable and doesn't make for being a great favorite. Sure enough, the Owls are 1-6 ATS as chalk this season. Coming off B2B two-point victories (over UMass and Davidson), I see Temple as being ripe for an upset. Take the points here. 

Admittedly, Drexel has a couple bad losses this year (NJ Tech, MD-Baltimore County). They were also just blown out by 32 at UConn earlier in the week. But getting this game at home is going to be a big motivating factor for the Dragons, who also come in w/ revenge for a three-point loss to Temple last year. They easily covered the 16-point spot there as neither team shot the ball well. One thing that makes this Drexel team attractive as an underdog in they can score. They average more than 80 PPG on the season while shooting 39.2% from three-point range. That'll go a long way in keeping this one close. 

Now they did shoot only 3 of 16 from behind the arc against UConn. But remember that was on the road. The Dragons had scored at least 76 points in each of their four games previous to the loss to UConn. Unlike the Huskies, Temple really does not have the kind of elite offense that can blow teams out w/ regularity. The Owls needed OT to get by Davidson last Saturday, scoring the GW basket on a lucky turnover. That came on the heels of rallying back from being down 10 at the half to UMass. Really, the Owls should feel fortunate to have that 9-2 SU record as three of their last four wins have come by exactly two points. The underdog will keep this closer than expected. 8* Drexel

10* Marquette (8:30 ET): I admit Buffalo got me earlier in the week (winning at Syracuse), but this is a pretty brutal spot for the still-undefeated Bulls, who are playing as a short road underdog for a second straight time. With Texas Tech losing last night (to Duke), only eight teams remain unbeaten in College Basketball. Sooner than later, all will fall at least once and for Buffalo, tonight is that time. Marquette is a stronger team than Syracuse, despite the oddsmakers suggesting otherwise, and they're a perfect 8-0 SU here at home. Lay the short number here as Buffalo takes its first loss of the year. 

Buffalo is a nice story, but I'll continue to maintain that they are nowhere even close to being a top 15 team in the country, which is where the pollsters have them. Now, this is an experienced group that did win a NCAA Tournament game (upset Arizona) last March. Nate Oats' team is expected to repeat as MAC Champions, but the Bulls have clearly surpassed expectations so far w/ a 7-1 ATS mark. I concede that they do own impressive road wins over West Virginia and Syracuse. But this four-game road trip that they're on (takes them through the New Year) figures to provide them their first loss as this is pretty clearly the most challenging spot of the three remaining games.

Marquette has won six straight, a streak which includes wins over Louisville, Kansas State and Wisconsin. They too are in the Top 25 (currently 20th) following a 26-point over North Dakota their last time out, a blowout win which came in spite of 22 turnovers. The Golden Eagles only losses this year came at Indiana and to Kansas at a neutral setting. Their eight home wins have come by an average of 18.5 PPG (opponents shooting just 36.0%). Eventually, Buffalo has to lose and this figures to be the last time they are an underdog for awhile. 10* Marquette

10* Over Pistons/Hornets (7:05 ET): In an Eastern Conference w/ no depth, both of these teams figure to make the playoffs. They are likely to battle for the 6th seed, a spot which the Pistons currently occupy w/ a 15-14 SU record. But Charlotte is just one-half game back, has a better YTD point differential and has already beaten Detroit twice. But this play isn't about who's covering, rather I'm looking at a total which seems too low. The first two meetings both stayed Under, but only by a handful of points. Thus I'm looking at the Over cashing tonight as neither side is exactly noted for its defensive prowess.

Detroit allowed a shooting percentage of just 43.7% in its last game (at Minnesota), yet still gave up 123 points. The game did go into overtime, but the Pistons allowed just five points in the extra five minutes. Had the T'wolves shot even reasonably well, who knows how many points they could have scored. While two Minnesota players - Robert Covington and Dario Saric - combined to go 7 of 16 from three-point range, the rest of the team was an abysmal 2 of 17 from behind the arc. Charlotte is a much better three-point shooting team, especially here at home where they're hitting 37.1% for the year. Look for them to make the Pistons pay tonight from distance. 

The Hornets allowed only 99 points their last time out, but that was against Cleveland. The Pistons aren't exactly the greatest shooting team in the world, but they'll present a far greater challenge defensively here for Charlotte. Detroit is averaging 110.7 PPG on the road. Meanwhile, the Hornets are averaging 115.2 PPG at home. Looking at season averages, we're several points clear of the O/U line, so all we need is an "average game" from both sides here. Note in the last meeting, Charlotte didn't shoot the ball well at all. I expect those numbers to go up substantially here tonight. 10* Over Pistons/Hornets

8* Coastal Carolina (7:00 ET): Charleston comes into this game pretty red hot, as winners of seven straight. They are 10-2 SU overall, but I don't see them being worthy of this price range against this opponent tonight. Coastal Carolina might only be 6-5 SU, but they've taken only one DD loss on the year and it was by 11 to a Wofford team that is substantially better than Charleston. Other than that, the Chanticleers' other four losses have all been by six points or less. I look for them to take the favored Cougars down to the wire in this one, which should be tight from start to finish. 

This is also a revenge game for Coastal Carolina as they lost by two to Charleston at home last year. It was a dreadful shooting night for the Chanticleers last year, particularly from three-point range where they went 1 for 16. This year's edition is a pretty strong shooting team (46.7% overall) and especially from behind the three-point arc where they are nearly 39% for the season. So Charleston won't be able to count on the same poor shooting tonight. Coastal Carolina is off a nice 69-65 win over NC Central on Sunday (led by as many as 14) and has played plenty of "true" road games so far. In other words, they'll be ready for this one. 

College of Charleston is nowhere near the three-point shooting team that Coastal Carolina is, so that's a big edge for the underdog right there. In fact, Charleston is shooting below 30% from behind the arc at home this year. Coming off B2B road wins, one of them an upset of Virginia Commowealth, I think this sets up as a letdown game for the favorite tonight. The Cougars are coming off a commanding 83-58 win over Siena their last time out (where they shot 61.5% overall!), a performance they won't soon be repeating. Overall, the Cougars' recent shooting simply is not sustainable. Coastal Carolina is a perfect 3-0 ATS as a dog so far this year while Charleston is just 1-3 ATS at home. 8* Coastal Carolina

8* Western Michigan (4:00 ET): The big story here is WMU lost its starting QB (Jon Wassnick) late in the regular season. They went 1-2 SU w/ backup Kaleb Eleby (true frosh) as the starter, but that one win came in the regular season finale, as 6.5-pt underdogs, against MAC Champ Northern Illinois. With all the added prep time that comes w/ a bowl game, I'm not worried at all about Eleby coming in as the starter as he's posted solid numbers (917 yds passing, 6 TDs and 64.5 completion percentage). The Broncos should be highly motivated here by being such big underdogs and I think the oddsmakers have overadjusted as BYU is a pretty mediocre team this year. Take the points. 

BYU experienced a much different finish to its regular season as it lost to rival Utah in the latest installment of the "Holy War." It was their eighth consecutive loss to the Utes and perhaps the most painful one yet. That's because the Cougars blew a 20-0 halftime lead in Salt Lake City. Despite that game taking place weeks ago, my guess is that BYU still isn't over what happened. So, emotionally, the two teams in this year's Idaho Potato Bowl come in w/ very different mindsets. Western Michigan is off a big upset that gave them plenty of confidence while BYU is off the most deflating loss possible.

BYU also starts a true freshman at QB, so it's not like they enjoy tremendous experience at that position either. I simply can't envision them covering this double digit spread, which seems to be based on name recognition only. The Cougars did have that big win at Wisconsin early in the year, but otherwise did not perform well against bowl teams and finished the regular season just 6-6 SU. I just don't see them being worthy of laying double digits on a neutral field. While it's true they have plenty of experience playing on the blue turf (game is in Boise), none of that experience is good as they're 0-5 SU all-time here. Last year saw a 6-6 Western Michigan team get snubbed from playing in a bowl, so the players should be highly motivated Friday afternoon. 8* Western Michigan

10* Over Marshall/USF (8:00 ET): I spent a good portion of this season railing against how fradulent South Florida's record was and it turned out that I couldn't have been more correct. At one point, the Bulls were 7-0 SU and ranked in the top 25. I thought the ranking was ridiculous as they were shockingly low in my power rankings. Sure enough, they dropped their final five regular season games, all by double digits. A team that was ranked and unbeaten in late October finished outside of the top 90 (!) in my personal power rankings, making them one of my lowest rated teams to make a bowl. As much as I'd love to fade them again here (I was 5-0 ATS fading them in the regular season), the Gasparilla Bowl is a home game for them (played in Tampa) and I think there's a chance they might "show up" Friday, at least offensively. 

Marshall is 11-2 SU all-time in bowl games. That's the highest win percentage for any team in the country w/ at least five bowl appearances. They are 5-0 SU and ATS under current HC Doc Holliday. They went 8-4 SU in the regular season, led by a defense that was outstanding, especially against the run. The Thundering Herd didn't allow a single 100-yd rusher in those 12 games and allows just 2.9 yards per carry. However, that stop unit did begin to wane late in the regular season. They allowed 190 rush yds in a narrow escape over FIU and then were shredded for 41 points by Va Tech in a game that wasn't scheduled until two weeks prior (Va Tech needed a 12th game to become bowl eligible and both they and Marshall had games postponed early in the year by Hurricane Florence). 

The offenses that the Marshall defense shut down were generally pretty bad. South Florida averages 29.2 PPG, but was scoring far more before QB Blake Barnett got hurt late in the year, causing him to miss two of the final three regular season games. Hopefully, Barnett will be able to play here. Regardless, the Bulls have a new playcaller for the bowl ( TE coach Justin Burke) as former OC Sterlin Gilbert bolted for McNeese State. During USF's 7-0 start, the offense went over 600 yds three different times. But perhaps the biggest key to this Over play is how bad the Bulls' defense is. It surrendered 442.2 YPG and was particularly brutal against the run. Six of USF's last seven opponents ran for at least 220 yards w/ three of those going for at least 322 (including UConn!).  10* Over Marshall/USF

10* Under Thunder/Kings (10:05 ET): Sacramento has been shredded defensively over its last four games, giving up 130 or more points three times. Note that none of those games went to overtime. Monday, they were caught playing the second game of a back to back and fell into a massive early hole in Minnesota. They trailed by 30 at halftime and ended up losing 132-105. But I don't look for tonight's game to be nearly as high scoring as they face an OKC team that is stout defensively (#1 in the league in efficiency) and often struggles to score on the road. Take the Under.

The Thunder come into this game off a 121-96 win over Chicago. That was actually a revenge spot for them as they'd lost to the Bulls, in Chicago, earlier this month. As I just stated, OKC is the top team in the league in defensive efficiency as they are the only team holding its opponents below one point per possession. At the same time though, we should expect a reduction in their own scoring tonight seeing as they are shooting only 43.9% on the road this year. The Thunder are also the worst three-point shooting teams in the league, in terms of percentage. 

These teams have met twice before this season and both games went Over. However, this is the highest O/U line yet. Sacramento got almost nothing from its starting five in Minnesota Monday, but the bench did score a season-high 78 points. That number will come down rather dramatically here. As for OKC, the Under is 6-1 this season when they are facing a team w/ a winning record and 10-4 when they are on the road. Thunder games don't typically approach the number of total pts the oddsmakers are calling for here. In fact, their road games average "just" 214.3 points. 10* Under Thunder/Kings

10* Ohio (8:00 ET): San Diego State really hit the skids late in the season, losing four of its last five games and the lone win was a come from behind effort against a bad New Mexico team. This is simply not the same Aztecs team that we're used to seeing under HC Rocky Long. I played against them a couple of times down the stretch, once when they failed to cover at New Mexico (were -12.5) and then again the following week when they lost outright (as 24-pt favorites) at home to UNLV. The Aztecs' biggest problem is they simply don't score. Even when they put 30 on the board in the regular season finale vs. Hawaii, they still lost. For the year, they're averaging just 19.6 PPG away from home! They finished the year 7-5 SU, but 3-9 ATS. To me, they are one of the easiest fades this entire bowl season. I'll be laying the points here. 

Ohio was probably the best team in the MAC this year, even though they did not get a chance to play for a Conference Championship. This was also the case last season and the Bobcats went out and crushed UAB 41-6 in the Bahamas Bowl. Now they are in position to win B2B bowls for just the second time in program history, which woud be a nice treat for HC Frank Solich, who is now the oldest active coach in the country after the retirement of Kansas State's Bill Snyder. Unlike SDSU, the Bobcats can score. They average 41.2 PPG (10th in FBS) and are led by QB O'Rourke, who accounted for over 3,000 total yds (passing + rushing) and 35 touchdowns in the regular season. 

Ohio finished strong down the stretch. They come in having won five of six, scoring 49 or more pts in all five victories. The one loss, 30-28 at rival Miami, is what cost them the MAC East. Three of their four losses this year were by four points or less. After losing to Miami, the Bobcats then destroyed division champ Buffalo 52-17. Their strength of schedule was very comparable to San Diego State this season, so there's no edge there. I put little stock in the fact the Aztecs are 13-0-1 all-time against the MAC as Long has struggled in bowl games. Ohio is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games where the spread is three points or less (either way) and I like them to roll in the Frisco Bowl. 10* Ohio

8* Ark-Little Rock (8:00 ET): Memphis is no longer the power that it once was under John Calipari. Really, it was a pretty fast decline under Coach Cal's understudy Josh Pastner, who would bolt for Georgia Tech. Tubby Smith replaced him an did a terrible job for two years. Famous alum Penny Hardaway is now in his first season at the helm and the Tigers are 5-5 SU, coming off an emotional loss to in-state rival Tennessee where they scored 92 points at home and still didn't even cover the spread. I believe they are "ripe for the picking" tonight and laying far too many points. 

Little Rock had a far easier time in its last games as they played Miles College and won easily, 67-47. That kind of opponent was a welcome sight for the Trojans, who had just experienced two back-breaking losses in a row. They blew a halftime lead at home to Bradley at home, then lost on a half-court heave to Central Arkansas, also at home. (That was actually their 2nd loss to Central Arkansas in two weeks). While the road has generally been unkind to Little Rock, they did cover here in Memphis last year in a similar price range, losing by only eight points. They are 4-0 ATS the L4 meetings w/ the Tigers. 

Memphis is not good defensively and their struggles extend way beyond giving up 102 pts to Tennessee on Saturday. They're allowing over 80 PPG on the season. The only two teams not to score at least 76 against them were Tennessee Tech and Canisius. Obviously when you are giving up that many points, it's pretty difficult to cover as double digit favorites. Speaking of that, the Tigers have not been DD favorites since the season opener, when they played Tennessee Tech, and they failed to cover in that spot. While Memphis played Saturday, Little Rock has been off for eight days, giving them a bit of an edge there. The Tigers' tempo, which often leads to them not getting the best shot offensively, will be their undoing here. 8* Ark Little Rock

8* Boston (7:35 ET): While these teams definitely reside at opposite ends of the NBA spectrum, recent results have the favorite undervalued coming into this one. For the first time in more than a year, Phoenix comes in on a three-game win streak. They've beaten the Mavs, T'wolves and Knicks, the former two at home. They got the Knicks playing in the second half of a back to back. Here, it's a Boston team coming off a surprise loss in Detroit on Saturday. But before that, the Celtics had won and covered eight straight games. It's a big number tonight, but lay it. 

While the number is big, consider that the Celtics were 10-point favorites in Phoenix a little over a month ago. Now they didn't cover mind you, but they also shot just 40.2% on the road and still won by seven. They actually trailed the Suns by as many as 22 before rallying back and taking the game in overtime.  Boston then made a hard-charge up my own personal power rankings w/ a series of blowout wins during the 8-0 SU/ATS streak. Five times they won by double digits. Most of the teams they blew out had losing records. No one has a worse record in the Western Conference than Phoenix, who is 7-22 SU for the season.

The Suns do have their top two scorers back, Devin Booker and TJ Warren. Their absences were the reason the team hit the skids in late November, at one point losing 10 straight games. The team also just made a trade, shipping Trevor Ariza off and getting Kelly Oubre Jr in return. I don't think that will make much difference. Monday's win over the Knicks marked just the second time all year that Phoenix prevailed in a road game. Boston is outscoring teams by 11 PPG here at home. A giant gap exists between these two teams when it comes to defensive efficiency as the Celtics rank third in the league while the Suns are 27th.  This should end up being a pretty sizable blowout. 8* Boston 

10* Richmond (7:00 ET): This is a total letdown spot for Old Dominion, who comes in off an upset of Syracuse at the Carrier Dome this past weekend. The Monarchs were able to rally from a double digit deficit to win by six, outscoring the Orange by 16 in the 2H. ODU is definitely a hot team right now as they've won six straight (5-1 ATS) and they can certainly play some defense (top 20 in defensive efficiency). But I'm not sure I see them going on the road for a second time in five days and coming away w/ a "W." It's their first time playing B2B road games this year and they're favored in this one. Take the points. 

While it will be difficult for ODU to match its intensity from the last game, Richmond is likely be very motivated tonight, playing at home. First off, they are in off an embarrassing loss from over the weekend as they fell 59-52 here at home to Oral Roberts as 11-pt favorites. In the loss, the Spiders shot below 30% from the field. This after shooting 50% or better in three consecutive games. Adding to the Spiders' motivation here is the fact they have legit revenge from a 19-point loss to ODU last year down in Norfolk. They didn't shoot the ball particularly well there either. It should be a different story tonight. 

It was a season-low in pts scored (52) for Richmond on Saturday. This is a team that averages 72.2 PPG on 47.8% shooting. This does figure to be a pretty low-scoring game, but that favors the underdog. Old Dominion is just 1-6 ATS its last seven time as a road fave of 6.5 to 9 points. They are shooting just 41% for the year and are below 40% away from home while averaging just 61.2 PPG. Meanwhile, Richmond is 6-1 ATS as a home dog in that 6.5 to 9 point range. This is just a bad spot for ODU, especially to be laying points. 10* Richmond 

8* Winnipeg (10:35 ET): Two teams going in very different directions meet up here on Tuesday and those opposite directions happen to be quite indicative of the respective seasons that they are having. Winnipeg is one of the best teams in the league and certainly one of its hottest right now. The Jets have won five in a row and are 9-1 their last 10. As a result of that surge, they are now tied w/ Nashville atop the Central Division as well as Calgary for the most points in the Western Conference. On the flip side, the Kings are off an 0-4 road trip and there's a pretty clear argument to be made that they are the worst team in the entire NHL this season. This one is a no-brainer for me. 

The Kings have the fewest points in the league right now (25) and also the second worst goal differential -31. They were just beaten four straight times on the road, surrendering four goals in each of the L3 losses. In addition, it's not like the offense has been much help. The club ranks dead last in the league in goals per game at 2.18. Just to illustrate how bad the Kings have been offensively, the gap between them and the 30th ranked team in gpg (Anaheim) is as large as the gap between Anaheim and the 24th ranked team in scoring. That's going to be a major problem facing a Winnipeg side that is third in the league in scoring and averaging 5.4 goals in its L5 contests. 

While the Kings are back home, that won't be enough to counteract the cavernous gap in talent that exists between these two sides. Plus, the Jets have won their last five road games. Winnipeg is off a huge 5-4 OT win over Tampa Bay on Sunday. I'm not worried about any kind of letdown considering they are 12-5 SU this year after scoring 4+ goals the previous game.  Making matters even worse is that LA goaltender Jonathan Quick has really struggled in his career vs. the Jets w/ a 3.02 GAA and .888 save percentage. Winnipeg is the only team in the league averaging more than three goals per game against Quick. The Jets previously beat the Kings in October, 2-1 w/ a 39-17 edge in shots. 8* Winnipeg

10* Denver (9:05 ET): Coming into the year, the Nuggets were lauded as one of the deepest teams in the league. We're seeing that depth currently pay off. Despite being w/o three Opneing Night starters right now (Will Barton, Paul Milsap and Gary Harris), the team continues to win and has the best win percentage in the Western Conference (.690). They are 10-2 SU and ATS the L12 games, including B2B impressive wins over OKC and Toronto here at home. Tonight, they look to close out a four-game homestand w/ a perfect record as Dallas comes calling. Denver isn't laying nearly enough here.

I thought the Mavs might improve this season and they have. But the improvement has been even more pronounced than expected (team's record is 15-13 SU) and a lot of that is owed to rookie Luka Doncic. However, Dallas has dropped B2B games and clearly isn't the same team on the road. While they sport a 12-3 SU home record, they're just 2-10 SU away from American Airlines Center. Their most recent road loss came last Thursday ... at Phoenix (scored only 89 pts). Their home record also took a hit over the weekend w/ a loss to Sacramento.

The Mavs aren't exactly at full strength here either as they could be w/o two guards, Dennis Smith Jr and J.J. Barea. As has already been well-established, this team simply isn't very good on the road (outscored by 7.5 PPG) and the Pepsi Center here in Denver is one of the more challenging venues in the league for opposing teams. The Nuggets have some major revenge to exact on the Mavs when it comes to the pointspread as they were 0-4 ATS against them last season (did win both home games SU). Denver is 12-3 SU at home this year, outscoring opponents by double digits. 10* Denver

8* Syracuse (8:00 ET): Entering Tuesday, there are still nine unbeatens left in College Basketball. Eight of them are ranked (St. John's being the exception), but only five truly deserve to be. Those five would be: Virginia, Kansas, Michigan, Nevada & Texas Tech, all of whom I believe are top 10 teams in the country. Another unbeaten is Furman, who did beat Villanova, but should still be considered well below all the other remaining unbeatens. That leaves us two more to hit on, Houston and Buffalo, both of whom are in the Top 25, but don't deserve to be. We've got a chance to play against Buffalo here, on the road against a "name" program, at an extraordinary price. I'm laying the points here. 

Syracuse dropped from the Top 25 due to a loss to another strong mid-major (Old Dominion) on Saturday. The Orange were nine-point favorites and lost to the Monarchs 68-62 as they shot a woeful 33.3% from the floor. Losing to ODU here at the Carrier Dome is clearly "something that shouldn't happen," but it did and not to make excuses, but there is an important caveat. Like Syracuse, ODU ranks pretty high nationally in defensive efficiency. In fact, the Monarchs are top 20 in that category. Syracuse, who is #16 in the country in defensive efficiency itself, won't have to worry about that same kind of suffocating opponent here as Buffalo ranks 54th in def efficiency. Among the unbeatens, only St. John's and Furman are lower. 

Buffalo is a tremendous story at 10-0 and ranked #14 in the country. But there is simply no way that Nate Oats' team is one of the 15 best in the country. Their "best" wins came at West Virginia and on a neutral court vs. San Francisco. Both were narrow victories (by 5 pts or less) and neither opponent is as good as Syracuse. Note Syracuse led ODU by double digits on Saturday before a poor second half. Also note that Buffalo really struggled against a zone defense vs. Southern Illinois Saturday. The SIU zone caused Buffalo to lose a 19-pt lead. We know what kind of defense Syracuse plays (Hint: it's a 2-3 zone) and they've beaten Buffalo 18 straight times dating back to 1963. 8* Syracuse 

8* Memphis (10:35 ET): Unlike the other two games in this package, I don't believe the underdog is the better team here, nor do I give them a great shot at pulling off an outright upset. However, the Grizzlies are getting way too many points here against Golden State, who has simply NOT been the same dominant team as they've been the last four seasons. On Friday night, the Warriors found themselves down in the fourth quarter at Sacramento before going on a 17-2 run to win the game by five points. Even on the road, the Grizzlies are worthy of more respect than what they're getting from the oddsmakers here. Take the points. 

One thing worth being concerned about here is that Memphis has been held under 100 pts for five consecutive games as well as seven of their last eight. That's almost unheard of in today's NBA. You just don't see too many teams scoring only 94.6 PPG over a five-game stretch anymore. But what we don't have to concern ourselves with here is the Grizzlies defense. They lead the Western Conference in points allowed (102.1 PPG) and have held 26 of their 29 opponents below their season scoring average. As for the offense, look for a bounce back tonight as Golden State has slipped tremendously on defense and gives up 111.1 PPG. 

Like most teams, the Grizzlies have struggled the past few years against the Warriors. They've lost 13 of the last 17 meetings, including a 117-101 loss here in Oakland last month. Golden State shot well in that game, but that may not be the case again here. They were 14-pt favorites in that last meeting and did cover, but needed a huge 34-15 third quarter advantage to do so. Memphis is due to start shooting the ball better and is good enough defensively to hang within the number here. 8* Memphis

10* Carolina (8:20 ET): This is essentially a "do-or-die" spot for the Panthers. Not only in terms of their current playoff standing, but also w/ their poor history against the Saints. Carolina comes into Monday night having dropped five in a row. That's the longest losing skid in the league right now. If there is one silver lining, they've generally been losing close games. Their last four losses have all been by a TD or less (been favored in every game). But there's no sugarcoating the rivalry w/ the Saints, which has seen the Panthers fail to cover six of the last seven meetings. They say "it's hard to beat the same time THREE times in the same season," but don't tell that to Carolina as they lost three times to New Orleans last year. They did cover in the playoff loss after going 0-2 ATS in the regular season. 

I think everyone considers the Saints to be the best team in the league right now, or they at least ought to. They've got the best record (11-2 SU), the best point differential (+164) and are 10-3 vs. the number. But there have been some signs that their dominance has waned. Two weeks ago, they went to Dallas and played - easily - their worst game of the season, getting beat 13-10. Then last week saw them have to rally back from a 14-3 second half hole against Tampa Bay. Total yardage was basically even in that game and the key was a blocked punt that swung the game. It was the second straight week that the Saints' vaunted offense was held below 300 total yards. 

This is a tricky spot for New Orleans as they're playing on the road for a third straight week. The sense of urgency is no longer there for them w/ the Rams losing last night. That Rams loss gives the Saints a very good chance of earning homefield advantage in the NFC half of the playoff draw. Meanwhile, Carolina should come out very inspired here. They're a much better team at home (5-1 SU) and this is just the second time all year they'll be a home dog (1st was a 36-21 win over Baltimore). They also have triple revenge against the Saints. The underdog has cashed seven of the past eight times in this NFC South rivarly. The Panthers are also 3-0 ATS their L3x as a home dog. 10* Carolina 

8* Sacramento (8:05 ET): The Kings continue to be a surprise team as they won last night in Dallas, 120-113. That victory was no small feat. The Mavs had won their previous 11 home games. Sacramento is now three games above .500, something that no one foresaw for this point in the season. While tonight is the second game of a back to back, the oddsmakers sure are being generous considering the Kings just beat the T'wolves 141-130 last week. Dave Joeger's team has covered seven of its last eight games overall and is a very respectable 9-7 SU on the road. Take the points. 

The T'wolves are coming off an 0-4 road trip that included that aforementioned stop in Sacramento. The road has been unkind to this team so far as they're 2-12 SU this season. It's been a different story at home though where they have gone 11-4 SU. However, rarely is Minnesota this large of a favorite. They were 7.5-pt favorites on the road to Phoenix Sat night and lost that game outright. They were also three point favorites last week at Sacramento where they allowed 141 pts in regulation. I don't think a simple switch in venue is enough to overcome the swing in point differential that the oddsmakers seem to be calling for here. Minnesota has had lay eight or more at home two times previous to this and ended up 1-1 ATS. But those games came against Chicago and Cleveland. 

In its last three games, Sacramento has scored 141, 125 and 120 points. They are 4th in the league in points per game. On Friday, they led the Warriors by 10 points in the fourth quarter before succumbing to a better team. I'm not sure Minnesota is a better team that Sacramento as the T'wolves definitely have their issues defensively. They just allowed an average of nearly 120 PPG on the 0-4 road trip w/ opponents shooting 40% from three-point range. These teams are dead even in defensive efficiency rating, but the Kings are significantly higher on offense. 8* Sacramento

8* Utah (8:05 ET): Here's yet another game where I believe the road dog is the better team overall and not getting the proper amount of respect from the oddsmakers. We've all been waiting on Houston to "get it going" and while lately there have been signs that is taking place, I'm still not convinced that they're significantly better than Utah, even playing at home. The Jazz are another team off to a disappointing start as - like Houston - they currently sit outside the top eight in the Western Conference. The Jazz have also already beaten the Rockets - twice - this season. Take the points. 

Now Utah does come into tonight having dropped three of four, including a stop in Mexico City where they fell as six-point favorites to Orlando, by a score of 96-89. Houston, meanwhile, has won and covered three straight. But the Jazz were one-point favorites for each of the first two meetings w/ the Rockets, one of them here in H-town. Now the Rockets played that home game w/o the services of Chris Paul (was suspended) and James Harden left w/ an injury in the 4Q. But there was no such "excuse" when they lost out in Utah earlier this month as they were at full strength. In fact, Utah was w/o one of its top players, Rudy Gobert, who was ejected early in the convincing 118-91 victory.

In the two wins this year, the Jazz have held the Rockets to an average of 90 points. They haven't been that prolific otherwise this season, but the defensive numbers should improve considering this team was #2 in the league in defensive efficiency last season. Houston continues to rely too much on Harden, who has had triple doubles in each of the last two games. In my eyes, this is a pretty even matchup w/ the Jazz being the slightly better team. The homecourt edge is being overvalued as the Rockets are just 7-5 SU here this season. 8* Utah

10* New York (7:35 ET): For the first time in over a year, the Phoenix Suns have won B2B games. Both wins came at home. The first was against a Minnesota team that isn't very good on the road. Then they beat another team w/ a drastic home vs. road split, that being Dallas, on Saturday night. The Suns now have TJ Warren and Devin Booker back in the lineup. Their absences certainly played a role in the team losing 10 straight games from 11/25 to 12/11. But just because both are back doesn't mean the Suns should be getting this much respect on the road. I know the Knicks are banged up, but Phoenix is a league-worst 1-13 SU on the road and last produced a three-game win streak back in March of 2017. Lay the short number here. 

New York did play last night. They lost 110-99 to Indiana, a game where I played the Over. The Over wasn't a winning bet as the Knicks shot just 41.6% from the field. But it was a close game most of the way and still tied 81-81 w/ just under nine minutes remaining. It was down the stretch where the Knicks wilted. Though short-handed and only 2-8 SU the L10 games, this is one of the few matchups tailor-made for NY to win. They've played only 13 of their 31 games at home, so they should be happy to be back at MSG tonight. Again, Phoenix is only 1-13 SU on the road, getting outscored by almost 16 PPG. 

The Suns may be a little short-handed here as well. They finally were able to trade Trevor Ariza (following a comedy of errors) in a three-team deal that netted them Kelly Oubre Jr and Austin Rivers. But there's a good chance neither will play tonight. Even if one or both did, I wouldn't expect very much in the first game w/ a whole new set of teammates. I just think that the Suns being listed as a near pick 'em is pretty unfathomable, especially when you consider they're only 3-11 ATS on the road. After playing three consecutive road games, the Knicks are 2-0 ATS this year. 10* New York

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): I was on the wrong side of Anaheim's previous game as they came back to beat Columbus in overtime, 2-1. But I remain highly skeptical of the Ducks' prospects, both in the short and long-term. Yes, they come into tonight's game at Pittsburgh having won eight of their last nine games. But they've also been winning in a very unsustainable fashion, often coming from behind. They were outshot 37-22 by the Blue Jackets on Saturday. For the season, only a few teams have spent more time trailing than have the Ducks. I like Pittsburgh at home here.

The Penguins have posted B2B victories and now sit in a top three position in the Metro. Anaheim is third in the Pacific and has more points, but I don't think there's any debate as to whom the oddsmakers prefer in this matchup. Nor should their be. This is a good spot for the Pens, who are playing a third straight home game. They beat Boston 5-3 Friday (despite being outshot 51-28!) and then the Kings on Saturday, 4-3, despite again allowing a high number of shots. Anaheim has won five straight on the road - all against the East - but I see that streak coming to an end here. 

Pittsburgh now has two solid options between the pipes w/ the emergence of Casey DeSmith, who made 48 saves in the win over Boston. I also expect Matt Murray to start playing better as the season moves on. Anaheim has been totally riding its goaltending this year, but Ryan Miller is now out, leaving John Gibson to carry the load. Having two solid options in goal is a nice luxury to have and the Ducks no longer get to enjoy said luxury. They also are still 29th in the league in goals per game despite a couple of recent 6-goal efforts. It's time for Anaheim to start regressing, folks. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Over Knicks/Pacers (5:05 ET): Indiana is working on a few streaks coming into this Sunday afternoon contest. For starters, they've covered their last four games. They've won their last five straight up. But the one we'll focus on today is that they've gone Under nine straight times. That seems like an unsustainable streak to me and the oddsmakers have taken notice, installing a pretty low total for this matchup. It is actually higher than when these teams played back on Oct 31, but that was still early in the season when both were figuring things out. (The Knicks still haven't really figured things out, btw). 

Leading scorer Victor Oladipo is now back for Indiana. His absence for 11 games at least partially explains the Under streak. He has been back for the last two contests, but predictably, it's taking some time to get back "into rhythm." Oladipo is just 10 of 27 from the field, with 26 points, so far. Don't be surprised though if this is the game where he gets it going again. He did nail a couple of clutch threes late in the team's 113-101 win over Philadelphia Friday. That's probably a sign of things to come. 

The Knicks roster resembles a M*A*S*H* unit right now w/ a lot of guys hurt. But on Friday, they were able to rally back from a 21-point deficit to defeat Charlotte in overtime, 126-124. That final score is obviously inflated by five extra minutes of play, but the Knicks clearly have their issues defensively as they give up 115.2 PPG on the year and are 29th in the league in efficiency. The question here is how many points will NY score? Well, they average about 109 (108.9 PPG to be exact) and if they can get to that number, then this game should have no problem going Over. The Knicks are 3-0 Over the L3 games and 10-2 Over when seeking revenge for a home loss. 10* Over Knicks/Pacers

8* Pittsburgh (4:25 ET): We all know the story here. New England has been a real nemesis for the Steelers through the year. The Patriots have won and covered the L5 meetings, which includes an AFC Championship Game (2016). All-time against Tom Brady, the Black & Gold are a horrible 2-11 SU and ATS. All but two of those games have come w/ Ben Roethlisberger at QB. Of course, the poor history vs. the Pats is only secondary to what's going on presently in Pittsburgh. After a 7-2-1 start, the Steelers have lost three in a row, putting their playoff status in precarious position.

Another Big Ben nemesis, Oakland, stunned the Steelers last week. Roethlisberger was injured and missed most of the 2nd half, but did come back to lead a TD drive late. But the defense couldn't hold and Pittsburgh has still never won in Oakland during Big Ben's career. That followed a pair of frustrating, one-score losses to the Chargers (blew 23-7 halftime lead) and Broncos (had 527-308 edge in total yds, but were -4 in turnovers). Though the postseason is no longer guaranteed, this is still a good team. They average 34.5 PPG at home and IMO, still deserve to be favored here.

New England is off its own stunning loss. Their came in the most improbable fashion possible as they gave up a multi-lateral TD on the final play at Miami last week. I'm sure you've seen it by this point. Laying a short number and off a SU loss, one can only assume the Patriots will be an attractive wager this week. But the reality of the matter is this team is only 3-4 SU on the road this year w/ losses to Jacksonville, Detroit, Tennessee and Miami. No doubt, head to head history played a role in where the oddsmakers set this line, but the Patriots are no longer what they once were. Putting pressure on Brady is key to beating him and the Steelers' D leads the league in sacks w/ 45. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Minnesota (1:00 ET): Fresh off the heels off a Monday night loss to Seattle, the Vikings decided to fire OC John DeFilippo. Anyone who watched the telecast probably wasn't surprised. The offense looked impotent as the announcers buried DeFilippo to no end. But truthfully, Minnesota didn't play nearly as poorly as the 21-7 final suggests. They actually had a slight edge in total yards in a game they trailed only 3-0 heading into the fourth quarter. When it was a 6-0 game, the Vikings had two chances to score, but were stopped on downs at the goal line, then later had a FG blocked in controversial fashion (Seattle's Bobby Wagner should have been called for "leaping.") To make matters worse, the Seahawks got a late defensive TD to ice the game. After the coordinator change, I expect the Vikings to respond well and deliver one of their best games of the year, at home, this week.

Miami is 7-6 SU and anyone that has a TV knows how their game last week ended. Down 33-27 to the Patriots, they pulled off an all-time miracle on the final play of the game. My congrats to them for a season highlight worth celebrating. But here's the reality: the Dolphins are not a very good football team and extremely lucky to have a winning record. They've been outscored by 55 pts this year, a differential that's slightly worse than the Jaguars & Falcons, both of whom are 4-9 SU. This kind of overachieving has gone on throughout Adam Gase's tenure here. Over the last three seasons, Miami has been outscored by 184 points despite a 23-22 SU record. Every Dolphins win this year has been by eight points or less. Five of their six losses have come by double digits. The overachieving ends Sunday. 

Both teams desperately need to win here to stay in playoff hunt in their respective conferences. But Minnesota is at home, where they're 4-2 SU/ATS, including a perfect 3-0 as chalk in the -3.5 to -7 range. QB Kirk Cousins really is better than he's given credit for; he's just operating behind a questionable offensive line. With this line hovering around a TD, the Vikings are a great value (were -9.5 on the lookahead line). Not only did it take a miracle to win last week, but the previous week saw Miami outgained 415-175, yet come away w/ a 21-17 victory @ Buffalo when Bills QB Allen missed a wide open WR on the game's final play. What this play boils down to is my lack of respect for the Dolphins and their phony record. They've lost five in a row on the road. 10* Minnesota  

analysis soon

10* Under Titans/Giants (1:00 ET): Titans' games have generally been low-scoring this year, but the Over is a perfect 3-0 the L3 weeks. Last Thursday, they beat Jacksonville 30-9. That's a low-scoring game, but the total closed at 36.5, which is very low by 2018 standards. In fact, each of the L3 wks have seen low totals for Titans games. Against the Jets, they came from behind to win 26-22 (total was 43.5) and that was a game where they allowed an early defensive TD. Despite the recent rash of Overs, the Titans neither score nor allow 20 PPG. The total is a bit higher this week & I'm on the Under.

The Giants' offense has also come alive recently. They've scored 30 or more in three of the last four games after only topping that threshold once in their previous 42 games! Having RB Saquon Barkley definitely helps, but so too did facing the horrific Bucs defense as well as a Redskins team that has been absolutely besieged by injuries. Eli Manning is still washed up in my opinion (B2B wks w/ less than 200 pass yds) and it's very likely that Odell Beckham Jr doesn't play against this week. Facing a superior defense in the Titans, I look for the Giants to also have a downturn on offense this week.

Tennessee lost its starting TE and a right tackle last week. This is an offense that averages a scant 16.4 PPG on the road. That's the fourth lowest such average in the league, ahead of only the Bills, Raiders and Cardinals. The only other time this year that the Titans scored 30+, they came back the following week and scored only 10 (on the road). They've topped 17 pts only once in the L5 road games. Meanwhile, the G-men actually average fewer PPG at home than they do on the road. The Under is 9-1 in their last 10 tries off a SU win by 14+ points. The Titans allow only 19.5 PPG. 10* Under Titans/Giants

10* St. Mary's (11:00 PM ET): In addition to the wrong team being favored here, this is a horrendous spot for LSU to fly out to Vegas and play a red hot team. You may recall that earlier in the week I was on the Tigers as they went to Houston. They were underdogs against an unbeaten team and I took the points, giving them a great shot at pulling the outright upset. For most of the game, they looked to be the better team, building a lead as high as 15 early in the 2nd half. They still had a double digit lead w/ just under 15 mins to go. But that's when the wheels fell off and they ended up losing by six (covered by 1/2 pt). I don't like LSU at all in this quick turnaround.

Especially when they're laying points to such a hot team. St. Mary's has won and covered four straight and should be the betting favorite here. All four wins have been by double digits, though against competition far weaker than what they'll see here. It's been a nice turnaround for the Gaels after losing four in a row, which I think is still weighing on the oddsmakers' minds here. Tuesday vs. CS-Fullerton, they led by 19 at halftime and never looked back. Jordan Ford scored all 19 of his pts in the 1st half and three other starters would join him in double figures.

The Gaels shoot the ball very well (49.7 FG%) and that's going to mean trouble for a LSU side that really doesn't, especially away from Baton Rouge. The Tigers have won just 1 of 4 away from campus so far, including an outright loss as favorite to Oklahoma State last month. Three-point shooting, as if often is, may prove key in this contest. St. Mary's is shooting 39.1% from behind the arc so far this season. They are allowing just 29.6% shooting. With the way LSU struggles to shoot away from home, I wouldn't be too confident in them being able to "keep up" in this late night showdown. 10* St. Mary's

10* Denver (8:20 ET): The lookahead line for this Saturday night matchup was Denver laying six points. So last week's respective results certainly had a significant impact on the oddsmakers. Cleveland beat Carolina, 26-20, at home while Denver went out and lost to lowly San Francisco, 20-14 as three-point chalk. The oddsmakers are now saying these teams are basically even, giving Denver the token number for homefield advantage. But I still believe that a gap does exist between these two teams. Lest we forget that the Broncos had won and covered three straight before taking the "L" last week. They've been hit hard by some injuries, but should still be able to defeat a team that is just 1-26 SU its last 27 road games. Lay the short number here.

Let us also not forget the last time Cleveland was off a win. They'd just beaten the Bengals (snapping a 25-game road losing streak) and headed to Houston where they were completely outclassed by the Texans in a 29-13 loss (shutout in the 1H). Last week saw the Browns bounce back, at home, over a slumping Carolina team. Rookie QB Baker Mayfield has brought alot of excitement to this downtrodden organization, but I can't help but think expectations are a little TOO high right now w/ actual talk of running the table and making the playoffs. It'll be interesting to see how Mayfield operates, on the road (and in primetime) against a defense that has allowed 22 pts or fewer in five straight games. The Browns' defense remains pretty poor as it ranks 31st in yards allowed. 

These teams have a history against one another that goes back to the late 1980's when they were the top two teams in the AFC. But that was long ago. Since returning to the league in 1999, the Browns are 0-7 SU vs. the Broncos. I think Denver's stock was a little too high going into last week's game vs. San Francisco, but now it's a "buy low" situation off the loss. This is a team that holds recent wins over both the Chargers and Steelers. Granted that was before losing CB Chris Harris and WR Emmanuel Sanders. Those injuries definitely played a role in losing to the 49ers, but I think the team was also overconfident heading into last week. That will no longer be the case here. The Broncos are still the better team here and getting a home game on a short week is always an advantage. 10* Denver

10* Memphis (8:05 ET): Houston may have some again believing that a turnaround is forthcoming and Memphis is the second night of a back to back. But I feel the Grizzlies are still an outstanding value tonight as a home dog. Last night's 100-97 loss to Miami aside, the Grizz have been one of the league's top defensive teams this year. They've held 25 of 28 opponents below their season average in scoring and are second overall in points allowed. The Rockets aren't the same explosive team on offense that they were a season ago. Therefore, I'll take the points here.

Memphis found itself slightly behind for most of the way last night against Miami. They simply did not shoot the ball very well, especially from three-point range where they were only 8 of 29. However, I suspect a nice bounce-back takes place tonight. The Grizzlies have shockingly been held under 100 pts in six of their last seven games, which you don't really see in this league anymore. But they shoot the ball well at home (46.5 FG%) where they are 9-5 SU and ATS. Houston is just 9-12 ATS as a favorite (10 outright losses) and 5-10 ATS on the road. They've lost six of their last seven road games straight up, even though James Harden has gone for 33 or more points four times in that stretch. 

Although these teams are division foes, it's been more than a year since they actually  faced off. Memphis earned a season split LY, taking the first two matchups, which was before they fell apart (due to injuries) and Houston really took off. I mentioned earlier that Houston is not the same team offensively this year and they're down to 106.6 PPG on the road. If Memphis can hold them below their season average, which history suggests that they will, then I sense a very easy cover here. The Rockets have still allowed more points than they've scored this year, making them  one of just five teams in the Western Conference that can say that. 10* Memphis 

10* Columbus (7:05 ET): I don't see the Blue Jackets having much trouble at all with the Ducks tonight on home ice. I say that knowing full well that Anaheim has taken six of its last seven games, including B2B six-goal efforts. But this is a team that has succeeded on the back of its goaltending, which has performed at an unsustainable level. The Ducks had the best 5 on 5 save percentage in the league entering the week, but one of their netminders (Ryan Miller) is now out at least six weeks w/ a MCL sprain. Joining Miller on the injured list are center Rickard Rakell and defensemen Cam Fowler. This is a most inopportune time for the injury bug to hit as the Ducks are set to embark on their longest road trip of the year. My guess is we'll start to see them regress.

Columbus is in a decent position after the first two months of the season.  They are 2nd in the Metro, although a lot of hockey is still to be played. They're in the middle of a six-game homestand and need to start racking up more wins. The homestand started w/ a pair of losses, one of them to lowly Vancouver. But the Jackets bounced back Thursday w/ a convincing 4-1 win over the Kings. Tonight is also a revenge game as they lost out in Anaheim, 3-2, last month. Offensively, this is a deep team (12 players w/ at least 10 points), so it's no surprise they're 7th in the league in goals per game.

But this play is more about fading Anaheim, who has been extremely lucky this season. When it comes to having the lead, the Ducks are near the bottom of the league in total time. They are 6-8-2 this year when down after two periods, which is the second most such wins. They added another Wednesday as they stormed back to beat Dallas 6-3. The team's last road trip (through the Southeast) went very well as they won four times as a ML dog of +160 or higher. But if you look at the way they continue to be priced, the oddsmakers are making it clear that they are NOT a believer. Nor am I. 10* Columbus

10* Fresno State (3:30 ET): Even though Fresno State (#23) is ranked, I think that a lot of people are going to do a double take when they seem them favored here over a Pac 12 team w/ a "name" head coach, Herm Edwards' Arizona State Sun Devils. But the Bulldogs deserve to be favored here and I believe will handle their business. To me, they are the BEST non-P5 team in America. (Yes, I'm including UCF in that discussion). FSU went 11-2 SU in the regular season and plays tremendous defense. They allow just 13.7 points per game, which was tied w/ Clemson for the second fewest in the entire country. Though bowl games aren't typically noted for their defense, I believe this Bulldogs team has enough pride to pack its D for Vegas as it looks to win its 22nd game in the L2 seasons. Lay the short number. 

Herm Edwards proved all the critics wrong in his 1st season in Tempe. He led the Sun Devils to a 7-5 SU record and they were never blown out. All five losses were by 7 points or less, four of them coming exactly by a seven-point margin, plus they lost by only two at Oregon. But they also won four games by a field goal or less. Having played so many close games, you might think playing ASU as an underdog would be ideal. After all, they did go 5-2 ATS when taking points in the regular season. But playing this game w/o WR N'keal Harry (skipping it to prepare for the NFL Draft) is not only the harsh reality of College Football, but just plain problematic. Harry had 73 catches for 1,000+ yards and nine touchdowns this year. That's a ton of production that ASU simply won't be able to replace in this game and going against one of the top defenses in the country makes things even tougher.

Fresno State has been one of the top ATS teams in the country the L2 seasons under Jeff Tedford, going 19-6-2 ATS overall. So having to lay such a short number w/ them is pretty nice. Yes, they're facing a Pac 12 school, but the Bulldogs just beat Boise State in the Mt West Champ Game (on the blue turf!) and won't be intimidated. This game is being played at MWC venue, the Sam Boyd Silver Bowl, home of UNLV. So that's another advantage for Fresno State. They won here just last month. Granted, it won't be as easy as 48-3 (destroyed UNLV), but it's still an edge. These teams had one common opponent during the regular season, San Diego State, and while Fresno State dominated the Aztecs (won 24-13), Arizona State lost to them 28-21. 10* Fresno State

8* Over North Texas/Utah State (2:00 ET): The build for the 2018 New Mexico Bowl centers as much around who is/isn't coaching as anything else. Seth Litrell has decided to remain at North Texas after flirting w/ the Kansas State job. Utah State isn't so lucky as they lost HC Matt Wells to Texas Tech. (Former Aggies HC Gary Andersen will replace him, returning to Logan after leaving for Wisconsin six years ago and then a failed stint at Oregon State. But it will be USU assistant Frank Maile coaching the bowl game). Let's not let the respective coaching situations overshadow the growth of these two programs. Even though this spread is one of the largest of the non-CFP games, these are two of the best non-P5 teams in America. I expect a high-scoring affair in Albuquerque come Saturday afternoon.

North Texas started the season strong. They were 6-1 SU midway through October and had a win over an SEC school (Arkansas). But a 2-3 SU finish (also 0-5 ATS) resulted in the Mean Green not making the C-USA Champ Game for 2nd straight year. They averaged 36.4 PPG and 472.8 YPG on offense, both of which were top 20 nationally. However, the Under went 11-1 in their 12 regular season games, making them the top Under team in the entire country. That hasn't stopped oddsmakers from installing a pretty high total for this matchup w/ Utah State. That's because the Aggies bring in an offense the likes of which this Mean Green defense hasn't seen all season. 

Utah State averaged 47.2 PPG during the regular season. Only two teams scored more - Oklahoma and Alabama. So being in the top three is pretty impressive company. The Aggies lost only two games in the regular season, their first (in OT at Michigan State) and last (33-24 at Boise State). In between, they won 10 straight games. While Wells is gone, the offense he built is still in place and should continue scoring at will. Unlike UNT, the Over hit more often than not for USU, going 8-3-1. So it's one of the top Over teams vs. the top Under team. My read is that both offenses are going to have their way here and we'll see little in the way of defense. Utah State plays at a fast tempo and North Texas is unlike most opponents in that they will keep pace thanks to QB Mason Fine, who threw for 300 yds and 2 TDs in all but two games this year. The Mean Green have one of the top passing attacks in the entire country. 8* Over North Texas/Utah State

8* NC State (2:00 ET): Every week, when the new NCAAB rankings come out, I like to compare them to my own personal top 25. There's not as much discrepancy as you might think, but there's a always at least a couple teams not ranked by the pollsters that I think deserve to be. One such team is North Carolina State. The Wolfpack have started 8-1 this year, the only loss coming at Wisconsin (by just 4 pts) in the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. Other than that, the competition hasn't exactly been fierce, but it's worth noting that NC State is outscoring teams by 26.9 PPG this year!

This is a neutral site game w/ Penn State, another Big 10 team. The Wolfpack are obviously hoping for a better result than what they got in Madison. They should. Last year in Raleigh, they beat the Nittany Lions 85-78 as a three-point home dog. Both teams are better this season. Penn State is actually top 10 in the country in defensive efficiency right now (per KenPom), but really struggles shooting the ball sometimes. Not in the last game, mind you, when Rasir Bolton's career-high 27 pts led a 76-65 win over Colgate. The team shot 10 of 27 from three-point range as well. But the issue is that the Nittany Lions have shot just 40.7% from the field outside of Happy Valley this year, including a dreadful 29.5% from three-point range.

NC State is 6th in the country in scoring and 14th in offensive efficiency. Defensively, they're not too shabby either, ranking 21st in points allowed. Again, I recognize they haven't taken on the toughest non-conference schedule, but that doesn't change the fact that this is a very good basketball team. They've scored 180 pts the L2 games and are 7-2 ATS overall. The only two times they failed to cover were as big favorites. The Wolfpack shoot the ball very well; better than 50% overall and better than 40% from three-point range. That's too much for Penn State to keep up with, so lay the short number. 8* NC State

8* Sacramento (10:05 ET): In an ultra-deep Western Conference, no one thought the Kings would be able to do much. Virtually all projections before the season had them and the Suns as the bottom two. But here we are in mid-December and they're right in the mix! Back to back wins have them at 15-12 SU and in eighth place in the Confererence. At the same time, Golden State no longer is the infalliable team of the last four years. They're still tied for first, but have already lost 10 times. This line is still based on preseason projections and not where each team is currently at. Take the points. 

Facing a Toronto team that was w/o Kwahi Leonard, the Warriors got embarrassed Wednesday night - at home - losing 113-93. I suspect this line is based on the expectation that it will be an angry Golden State team taking the floor tonight, looking to exact some revenge. But even w/ the team healthier than its been, I don't see it. They escaped w/ a one-point win over the Kings last month. Granted, there was no Steph Curry or Draymond Green. But Kevin Durant did go for 44 points in the game and the Dubs probably won't be getting that kind of individual performance tonight.

Sacramento is 5-1 SU and ATS in December. Admittedly, that includes wins over Phoenix, Cleveland and Chicago, three of the four worst teams in the league. But they also just dropped 141 pts in regulation in their last game, shooting almost 59%, in a double digit win over Minnesota. The Kings are now 7-5 SU at home this year and 8-4 ATS as they've been a dog in every game. Yes, I'm with you in that this team is going to eventually fall off (won't make the playoffs). But they are better than they've been the last couple seasons and no longer a team that's going to get blown out regularly. 8* Sacramento 

10* Green Bay (9:00 ET): WI-Green Bay has been a covering machine this year. An underdog in all but one lined game, the Phoenix are 6-2 ATS on the year, 6-1 when in the underdog role. They've stepped up in class a couple times, playing the likes of Iowa and Oregon on the road, so they certainly shouldn't be intimidated by tonight's visit to Creighton. Outside of an ugly loss at Bowling Green last week, there's nothing to indicate the Phoenix can't hang w/ the heavily favored Blue Jays here. They average 87.2 PPG (13th in the country), so take the double digit spread.

Creighton also isn't shy about scoring as they are averaging 83.6 PPG. But they do come in off B2B losses. Now those losses came against Gonzaga and Nebraska, two very good teams, one of them top five in the country. But w/ another more "high-profile" game (at Oklahoma) looming next week, I think it will be easy for the Blue Jays to overlook tonight's game, which is obviously dangerous when laying double digits. Creighton has not covered either time it was a DD favorite this year, winning those games by only 11 and 6 points and they were playing Western Illinois and East Tennessee State. 

Green Bay plays at one of the fastest tempos in the country (9th in possessions per game) and have scored 100+ pts in two of their last three games. Yes, one of those games was against a non-DI school, but the other came on the road against Belmont, a game where they were 7-pt underdogs. As for the oddsmakers, they are giving Creighton basically the same level of respect they gave Iowa and Oregon against the Phoenix. I don't think that's right. Creighton is highly suspect defensively as it ranks 301st in points allowed & is 128th in efficiency. They were just shredded by Nebraska for 94 pts after giving up 103 to Gonzaga. Giving up a lot of points here will obviously make it difficult to cover such a large spread. 10* Green Bay

8* Winnipeg (8:35 ET): I've made my view on Chicago pretty clear, so I have no issue backing a superior team like Winnipeg here even w/ the Jets off an OT win last night. We're used to talking about Chicago as one of the premier teams in the league, but they have fallen hard and fast and should now be in the discussion for worst team in the league. They have the second fewest points (25) and the worst goal differential (-31). Ironically, they're in a battle w/ the Kings in both categories, a team we also used to consider one of the league's best. My, how things can change. 

Meanwhile, Winnipeg is near the top of the league. Only one team has a better goal differential and that would be Tampa Bay, who I think is everyone's #1 team right now. The Jets are neck and neck with the Preds in the Central Division and a win here would put them in first place. So don't think they'll be lacking for motivation. Last night saw them down a red-hot Edmonton team, 5-4, which was an impressive win. It was their seventh win in the last eight games, which is a far cry from Chicago's recent performances. The Blackhawks have lost 8 of 9, the lone win coming Wednesday vs. Pittsburgh. 

While they were able to beat the Pens, don't count on Chicago winning two in a row as home underdogs. Winnipeg has already beaten them twice this year, scoring six times in both victories. The Blackhawks are 30th in the league in goals allowed and their special teams have been abysmal. They are dead last on the power play and third worst in penalty killing. It's been almost two months since Chicago won B2B games. They are 3-11 SU this year against teams w/ winning records while Winnipeg has feasted on lesser competition, going 14-4 SU against sub-.500 foes. 8* Winnipeg

10* Under Wizards/Nets (7:35 ET): Two struggling teams meet here. Washington has to be on the short list for biggest disappointment in the league, having started 11-17 SU. Having made the playoffs four of the past five seasons, in-fighting and just bad basketball are threatening to tear this team up. They've lost three in a row coming into tonight, the most recent defeat coming at home to Boston Wednesday night. That game went to overtime, so beware the 130-125 final score. I feel tonight's O/U line is simply too high, thus I'm on the Under. 

Brooklyn has been searching for answers ever since losing leading scorer Caris LeVert to a serious injury. From 11/21 to 12/5, they lost eight in a row, but have since found a spark w/ a three-game win streak (also 3-0 ATS). They certainly didn't appear to miss LeVert Wednesday, winning 127-124 at Philadelphia while shooting nearly 52% from the field. Winning on the road, against one of the top teams in the East, is certainly impressive. Especially when you consider the Sixers shot 54% overall themselves! But the Nets counteracted that by going 14 of 28 from three-point range and 37 of 43 from the FT line. Spencer Dinwiddie went for a career-best 39 pts as well. I suspect none of those numbers will be repeated tonight.

Washington is a perfect 4-0 Under following a game where they allowed 130+ pts this season. Bottom line is that all the numbers from both teams' last games are due to come down. That's both offensively and defensively. Brooklyn will not make nor will they attempt as many free throws. They aren't going to shoot 50% from three-point range on a high volume of attempts either. When they met two weeks ago, it was a rough shooting night all around as the Wiz prevailed 102-88 in D.C. The teams combined to 16 for 59 from three-point range and Brooklyn was just 30 for 81 overall for the game. 10* Under Wizards/Nets 

8* Washington (7:35 ET): This is a huge mismatch, in my opinion, and the money line simply does not reflect that. The defending Stanley Cup Champion Capitals may have the fewest points of any division leader currently (39), but they're still one of the top teams in the league and vastly superior to tonight's opponent. Carolina, as always, is really good at getting shots on goal, but not so much when it comes to actually finding the back of the net. The Canes have lost five of six, including a 6-4 loss last night at Montreal. Playing in the second night of a back to back is hardly ideal, given the opponent tonight. 

The Caps started the season slow, but have won 10 of the last 12 games. In their last eight games, they've scored four or more goals seven times. They're now 2nd in the league in scoring (3.7 goals per game), thus they've got to be "licking their chops" here in a matchup where Carolina simply isn't going to be able to "keep up." The Hurricanes are 30th in the league in goals per game, which is just stunning considering they average the most shots per game. Washington is deep. Not only is Alex Ovechkin working on 12-game point streak (had a hat trick in 6-2 win over Detroit Tuesday), but the team's 4th line has contributed 12 points of their own this month.

Making matters worse for Carolina is that they had to place Jordan Staal on IR due to a concussion. As alluded to above, this is a tough back to back they're in after playing in Montreal last night. They gave up 40 shots on goal to the Habs and let's not forget this team is short-handed in goal right now. Curtis McElhinney has been their best goaltender, but is still listed as being day to day w/ a lower-body injury. Right now, it's undecided as to who will be between the pipes tonight, but neither Scott Darling or Petr Mrazek are having good years. 8* Washington