8* Run Line Cincinnati (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Reds at +1.5. Coming off a win over Colorado (avoided a sweep) here at home yday, the last team the Reds probably wanted to see in this spot is St. Louis. After all, they are 0-7 against the Cardinals this season. But I believe Cincy does no worse than a one-run loss spot. The Cards are by no means great on the road and this is a team that just avoided getting swept themselves w/ a win yday over Miami. Even losing two of three to the Marlins at home is pretty embarrassing in its own right. The revenge angle is obviously strong here as it's tough to sweep the same opponent twice (let alone THREE times), particularly a division rival. Take the +1.5. 

It's "Matt Harvey Day" (ha!) at Great American Ballpark on Friday. In all seriousness, Harvey has pitched pretty well for the Reds after the unceremonious exit from Queens. Now his last two outings were pretty rough, but both of those came on the road and one of them was at Colorado. His only start at Great American Ballpark so far (wearing a Reds' uniform) saw him pitch 6 1/3 innings and give up only one run on three hits. It was the best of his five starts w/ Cincinnati thus far. Though winless in four career starts vs. St. Louis, Harvey's ERA in those games is a strong 2.05. It may have taken extra innings yday against the Rockies, but the Reds were long overdue for a win as they'd outhit Colorado in the first two games, not to mention San Diego the game before that as well. 

St. Louis has dropped 8 of 14 and it's been over a month since they won B2B games. So yday's win doesn't exactly set them up well here. Again, dropping two of three (at home, no less) to the Marlins is not encouraging. Nor are the numbers of starter Luke Weaver on the road, such as his 5.22 ERA and 1.466 WHIP. Here, Weaver will face an offense performing a lot better than his recently. While the Reds are averaging 5.0 rpg (.295 batting average) the L7 games, St. Louis is at 4.1 rpg w/ a .258 batting average. I just find it hard to believe the Reds will get swept for a third time by the same team. Just to be "careful," we'll use the run line to our benefit as it's a good price. 8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)

8* Miami (7:10 ET): I assure you that endorsements of the Marlins will be few and far between this season, but tonight is a good spot to take them as they are at home, hosting the Padres, and have revenge. San Diego just took three of four from the Fish at Petco Park to end May. That's part of a 7-2 run for the Padres, but I'm not buying it at all. That entire run came at home with two of the series against fellow last place teams. They haven't been all that bad (surprisingly!) on the road so far (11-14 record), but moving forward I have as little faith in the Padres as I do the Marlins. The avenging home team should take this series opener in a battle of cellar dwellers. 

Of course, neither of these clubs were expected to be good in 2018. San Diego started 10-20, but has actually been above .500 since then (19-15) thanks to the recent run. They've won three straight series for the first time in almost a full calendar year. However, Miami also outscored St. Louis 18-7 in the first two games of its last series (before losing 4-1 yday) and will send rookie Caleb Smith to the bump this evening. Smith leads all rookies w/ 74 strikeouts so far and he has a 0.962 WHIP his L3 starts. He was also the only Marlins starter to get a win in the last series vs. the Padres. Starting the opener (sound familiar?) of that four-game set, Smith went seven innings and allowed only one run on four hits. His K/9 innings rate of 11.0 is in the top 11 in all of MLB. He followed up that start at San Diego by allowing five runs in four innings at hitter-friendly Chase Field (Arizona), but still has a 3.03 ERA his L7 starts overall. Opponents are batting just .101 against his slider for the season. 

Smith will be opposed by the same pitcher he faced the last time he went against San Diego. That would be Eddie Lauer, who has been - by far - the more inconsistent of the two pitchers here. He lasted only 2 1/3 innings against Miami last time and gave up five runs in the process. For the season, he has a 6.82 ERA and 1.981 WHIP in eight starts and the team has gone just 2-6, including 0-4 on the road. The fact that the Padres head to Miami off an off-day while the Marlins played yday does not matter in my eyes as SD is 1-5 playing w/ a day of rest anyway. 8* Miami 

10* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Well, the Rays failed to come through for me yesterday as a late rally fell short and Seattle won another one-run game (5-4). But I'll come right back w/ the home team Friday, noting the same elements/rationale that was present for Thursday's play still persists here. The Mariners are not as good as their 39-23 record would seem to indicate as they've only outscored opponents by 22 runs over the course of that season. Their "win expectancy" (based on YTD run differential) is actually only 34. To put this in some perspective, the team they lead by one game in the AL West (Houston) has a run differential of +121 and a win expectancy of 46! The Rays still have revenge for a prior sweep in Seattle and three of their four losses to the M's this season have been by one run. 

Their record in one-run games (MLB-best 19-9) helps explain that discepancy between actual and expected wins for the Mariners. It also helps that they're a perfect 6-0 in extra inning games. This all sounds very unsustainable to me, however, and I'm on the record as calling for them to regress moving forward. They got a strong starting effort from Mike Leake last night and tonight will hand the baseball to the red-hot Marco Gonzalez. His L3 starts have seen Gonzalez go 3-0 w/ a 0.44 ERA and 0.934 WHIP. Impressive as those numbers might be (and his last start was against the Rays), I remain a bit skeptical as Gonzalez's ERA prior to the three start stretch was 5.31. 

While Seattle is trotting out the same starters we saw in the last series vs. the Rays, TB is going with the "opener" approach, meaning a reliever gets the "start," but only goes an inning or two. It's a "by committee" approach from there. This didn't work out for manager Kevin Cash last night w/ Austin Pruitt giving up three runs in the second after he came on in relief of Ryne Stanek, who had worked out of a bases loaded jam himself in the first. That said, visiting teams came into last night's game batting just .219 for the season at Tropicana Field. It should also be pointed out that Pruitt settled down yday after the rough second innings. The Rays outhit the M's last night (10-8). Tonight, they throw out Wilmer Font in the "opener" role. Since joining the team last month, Font has made four appearances and has a 1.50 ERA, having allowed only one run on three hits in six innings of work. At the end of the day though, this one simply boils down to my continued skepticism of Seattle's success. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The Brewers are another of those teams I remain quite skeptical of moving forward. They've started to slip in recent days as well, dropping three in a row and scoring only four runs in the process. The last two losses took place in Cleveland on Tuesday & Wednesday. The Brew Crew remain in first place in the NL Central, however, their lead is shrinking as it's currently down to one-half game over the surging Cubs. To this observer, there's no arguement that the Cubs are the better team and that seems to be confirmed by their +91 run differential compared to Milwaukee's +26. The Phillies just did the Brewers no favors by dropping B2B games to the Cubbies, but now can do more damage while improving their own lot. I like the home team in this one. 

Philly has been a lot better at Citizens Bank Park this season as they've got a 19-9 home record and have outscored their visitors by nearly two full runs per game. They are roughly the equivalent of Boston for best run differential at home in all of baseball. But while the Red Sox score the most runs per game at home, the Phils allow the fewest. The number is just 3.0 rpg coming into tonight when they'll hand the baseball to Vince Velasquez. While he has an 0-3 team start record, that's actually highly misleading. Velasquez has a 2.20 ERA and and 1.225 WHIP during that time as well. While he has not shared in his team's success at home (three of their nine losses here have come w/ Velasquez on the hill), it's only a matter of time before that changes. Last time out, Velasquez went 6+ innings and allowed only one run on five hits. Sadly though, his offense failed to score for him in a 2-0 loss to the Giants. But Velasquez did have nine strikeouts, improving his K/9 innings rate to 12.0 over his L6 starts. 

The Brewers come in averaging just 2.3 rpg over their L7 contests, so I expect Velasquez to perform well here. Starting for Milwaukee will be Jhoulys Chacin, who has pitched well in his own right. He's allowed 2 ER or fewer in five of his last six starts and threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings his last time out. But that also came against an anemic White Sox team. Chacin has a 10-3 team start record so far this year, including 6-2 on the road. But his ERA/WHIP away from home are 3.82 and 1.300, pretty pedestrian numbers. Neither team has been at its best of late, but I don't believe the Phillies are getting enough respect from the oddsmakers given their success at home while I'm still skeptical of the Brewers. 8* Philadelphia

8* Over Astros/Rangers (8:05 ET): These AL West rivals met earlier in the season, up in Houston, and all three games - two Astros' wins and one for the Rangers - stayed Under the total. But I look for a much different type of game to unfold in tonight's series opener in Arlington. Not only is Houston MLB's highest scoring road team (5.7 rpg), but Texas gives up the most runs per game at home (5.8) this side of Colorado. Now, with a pitching matchup of Cole vs. Hamels (weird to type that!), you may think the season-long trends of the respective teams may not hold up. But consider each of Cole's last three starts have gone Over the total, thanks to the offense supplying him w/ an average of nine runs per contest. Not to be outdone, Texas has scored 15 runs its last 2 games. Take the Over. 

Gerrit Cole has been a big part of a Houston staff that is allowing a league-low 2.8 rpg w/ a .208 average. He's 6-1 in his 12 starts (10-2 TSR) w/ a 2.20 ERA and 0.833 WHIP. Certainly, he's more than capable of shutting these Rangers down. He also leads the AL w/ 116 strikeouts and is working on a four-game win streak. He's yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season. He's looked very sharp in two starts vs. the Rangers previous to this one, giving up just three runs and five hits in 14 IP. He also has 25 strikeouts. But Arlington can be a tough place to pitch (just ask the Rangers' staff!) and at least now the individual Texas hitters are more familiar w/ the former Pirate. I expect this to be the worst of Cole's three starts against them to date. 

Speaking of "Cole," Hamels has allowed two home runs in each of his last three starts. Four of those have been solo shots, so he's actually been lucky in that regard. Somewhat predictably, Hamels has been less effective here at home where his ERA and WHIP are 4.66 and 1.364. Again, he'll be up against the highest scoring road team in all of MLB. The Astros' offense had been slumping a bit before putting seven runs on the board last night and I believe that performance will "carry over" into this weekend series. When it comes to familiarity, the hitters should know what to expect from Hamels at this point considering this will be the FOURTH time this season that Houston has faced him. Note that the Over has cashed in five straight games for the Astros as well. 8* Over Astros/Rangers

8* Vegas (8:05 ET): The incredible season put forth by the expansion Golden Knights is now in real danger of coming to an end, and not in their fairy tale fashion their fans were hoping for. Trailing the Capitals 3-1 in this best of seven Stanley Cup Finals, it's now win or go home for the Knights. Fortunately though, tonight's Game 5 takes place in Sin City where this team has been magical all season long. They've won 36 of 50 games overall here at T-Mobile Arena, including a 7-2 mark in these playoffs. This is their first losing streak of the postseason (lost three in a row) as goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury appears to have hit a "wall" (.845 save percentage in the series), but I think he can summon up the same form we saw from him in the first three rounds (.947 save percentage) for at least one more game. Vegas stays alive w/ a win tonight! 

The Golden Knights also have to start scoring again. After putting six goals on the board in Game 1, they've totaled just five in the last three games combined. With Fleury no longer performing at an other-worldly level, that's a problem. But again, fortunately, this game is on home ice where they average 3.6 goals per game for the season. That's one of the highest averages in the league for goal scoring at home. We also know that Washington goalie Braden Holtby typically is not as effective on the road as he is in D.C. Case in point, his save percentage has only recently "snuck over" .900 for the year away from home. 

Something else to consider is that Vegas has NEVER lost four games in a row. Not once all season. They are a perfect 3-0 when coming off three consecutive defeats. They have outshot the Caps in three of the four games so far, an interesting contrast to the first three rounds when they were winning far more often than they were losing, but also getting outshot in the process. They had 73 shots on goal total in the first two games of this Stanley Cup Final and who could forget them being "robbed" by Holtby late in Game 2, which appears to have been the turning point in this series. But I just can't see Vegas' season ending on home ice tonight. They live to fight another day. 8* Vegas 

10* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Now that the Mariners' win streak came to an end (at 5 games), it's probably a good idea to continue to play against them. I was on Houston last night and if you read my analysis, then you're already aware that I've been pretty steadfast in calling for this team's regression. If you haven't read and are wondering why, well, read on. Tampa Bay has revenge here for a three-game sweep they suffered at the hands of the M's less than a week ago. (That series was contested at Safeco Field). Two of the Mariners' three victories came by one run, and that's part of the larger rationale as to why I think this team is set to regress. They are a MLB-best 18-9 in one-run games so far (6-0 in extra innings) and I simply don't believe that to be sustainable. Despite being 38-23 on the year, they've only outscored the opposition by 21 runs, which works itself out to a win expectancy of 33. No team in baseball has overachieved its expected win total more than this one has. 

Now the Rays have yet to win a game in June and have lost six in a row overall. They were hammered yday, 11-2, at the hands of the Nationals. But at least that game was contested in the afternoon, allowing them to get a "head start" on this series (Seattle didn't wrap up in Houston until roughly 11 PM ET). Tampa Bay's problem during the losing streak has been pretty simple and it's that they're not scoring. They've been held to three runs or fewer in all six losses, but I'll call for them to break out of that mini-slump tonight. Seattle starter Mike Leake has clearly overachieved in getting to a 4-1 TSR on the road, given his ERA and WHIP are 5.46 and 1.393. Leake did beat the Rays in the last series, but did allow two solo home runs. Obviously, he was fortunate no one was on base either time as the M's won by only a 4-3 margin. 

The Rays have done a lot better on the run suppression side of the ledger here at home. Opponents are scoring just 3.7 rpg at Tropicana Field while batting a collective .219. Ryan Stanek will get the start tonight, but is expected to go only an inning or two as manager Kevin Cash continues to get creative w/ his staff. In 2 2/3 previous innings vs. Seattle, Stanek hasn't allowed any runs and gave up just one hit. As a "starter" this year, he's gone three innings (two starts) and the last one was some tough luck as he gave up two runs despite only one hit. That followed him going 1 2/3 IP while allowing no hits his first try. Look for Stanek and the Rays to exact revenge against the overrated Mariners tonight. 10* Tampa Bay

10* Cleveland (9:05 ET): While a series sweep entails one team winning four in a row, a loss tonight in Cleveland would all but end the Cavaliers' season. For the third year in a row (this is the fourth straight Finals meeting), they have opened the NBA Finals by losing the first two games in Golden State. Barring a series comeback many just aren't seeing right now, the Cavs will likely rue the Game 1 loss for some time. So many things (reversed call, missed FT, JR Smith blunder) went against them in the overtime loss, that it's a wonder they even were able to make it to Game 2. While they fought valiently Sunday night, the underdog Cavs just couldn't seem to get over the hump in a wire to wire defeat, 122-103, at the hands of the Warriors. But, now at home, I think we'll see them perform a lot better. I'm taking the points in Game 3. 

If it feels like we've seen this before, that's because we have. Just last round, in the Eastern Conference Finals, Cleveland found itself down 0-2 to Boston w/ the series heading back home. They would go onto win the next two games here in C-Town and eventually the series. Now, this Warriors team is a lot more formidable than the Celtics. But, same as that Boston series, I have to believe the Cavs' players not named "LeBron James" will start to set up now that they're back on their home floor. In the first two games, James' teammates are an abysmal 8 of 32 from three-point range off his passes, including 5 of 16 when uncontested. JR Smith, Jeff Green, Kyle Korver and Jordan Clarkson are a combined 14-54 from field in the series, including 5-25 on 3's. Again, look for these shooting numbers to jump way up now that we're at the Quicken Loans Arena. 

Golden State shot 57.3 percent from the field in Game 2, which makes them basically impossible to beat. In fact, they were near 54% for the first two games as a whole. But, just like Cleveland's shooting numbers must go up, the Warriors' must go down. At four games, Golden State is currently on its longest win streak of the postseason. They are 9-21 ATS this season off 3+ consecutive SU wins. In the Eastern Conference Finals, the Cavs never scored more than 94 pts in any of the four games in Boston. But in the three home games, they scored: 116, 111 and 109 pts. In the last five home games, they've averaged 113.8 PPG. In both '15 and '16, they beat GSW here at home in Game 3. Last year, they should have done the same, but blew a huge lead. With their season basically on the line, I'm on the home dog. 10* Cleveland

8* Houston (8:10 ET): While last night's result certainly "flew in the face" of my working theory, I'll still cling to the notion that run differential is a far great predictor of future outcomes than is a team's actual won-loss record. Even w/ a surprise 7-1 win last night, the Mariners' cut into the Astros' massive edge in run differential was barely a "drop in the bucket." Seattle might be in first place in the AL West right now (two games up on Houston), but they've only outscored opponents by a meager 23 runs this season (despite a 38-22 record). Meanwhile, the reigning World Series Champs are +116 in run diff, easily the best in all of baseball. I'll again lean on run diff and call for the Astros to earn a split of this short two-game set against their main AL West rival. 

Just to give you an idea, run differential says the Astros should currently have an 11-game lead over the M's. Instead, they are down two and the respective records in one-run games have a lot to do w/ that. Seattle is a MLB best 18-9 in one-run decisions (not to mention 6-0 in extra inning games), the best such record in all of baseball. On the other hand, Houston is a MLB-worst 4-12 in one-run games. One would suspect that those disparate marks would start to "even out" as the season progresses. Last night may not have been a one-run defeat for the Astros, but does set them up well for a revenge spot. It was just their third loss all season by five runs or greater, two of those coming in the last two games! While Seattle has won 9 of 11 (incl 5 straight), six of those wins have come by exactly one run. 

Houston had to deal w/ James Paxton yday and he got all the run support he needed early. It was a 6-0 game after the top of the second and that was "all she wrote." Expect better here from Lance McCullers Jr than what we got from Dallas Keuchel last night. McCullers has a 1.97 ERA and 0.906 in his five home starts thus far and has allowed 3 ER or fewer in eight of his last nine starts overall. One of those was vs. Seattle as he dominated at Safeco Field in April, allowing just one hit (a solo HR) over 7 IP. He finished w/ a season-best 11 K's as well. Starting opposite McCullers here is Wade LeBlanc, another of Seattle's surprising starters. LeBlanc has allowed just six runs in his six starts, but has yet to pitch more than six innings. He has a 5.00 career ERA vs. Houston, making three starts and three relief appearances. As for McCullers, he is 6-2 all-time vs. Seattle w/ a 2.75 ERA (10 starts). 8* Houston

8* San Francisco (3:45 ET): There was a welcome sight on the bump last night in AT&T Park. That would be Madison Bumgarner, who made his season debut for the hometown Giants. Unfortunately for the majority in attendance, the end result was a disappointment. The Giants lost, 3-2, which snapped their five-game win streak. Unlike last year's disastrous campaign, the Giants performed admirably w/ MadBum on the DL as they were a .500 team through the first 60 games (despite being outscored by 31 runs). Even after yday's loss, they still only trail the first place D'backs by 2.5 games in the NL West. They beat Arizona on Monday, 10-4, and I like their chances in the rubber match this afternoon as this has generally been a strong offensive team at home. 

San Fran will send Chris Stratton to the bump this afternoon. They've won each of his last four starts w/ the last one seeing him toss six scoreless innings of four-hit ball (against the Phillies). That was here at home where Stratton is 4-1 in six starts (5-1 TSR). Stratton has pitched against the D'backs once already this season, albeit on the road, and it went very well w/ him allowing just one run on five hits over 7 IP. In fact, the Giants are 3-1 vs. Arizona the L2 seasons w/ Stratton on the mound as he's allowed just eight runs in 24 innings of work (2.64 ERA), making three quality starts. Going back to last season, the Giants are now 10-1 in Stratton's 11 home starts. Though 19-13 at Chase Field, the D'backs are just 13-15 on the road. Homefield advantage would appear to matter here.

Taking that a step further, San Francisco has been a pretty bad road team so far (12-20), but is 18-11 at home and averaging above 5.0 rpg here. Today, they'll face Clay Buchholz, who has been shockingly good through three starts. But I remain skeptical. Buchholz may have allowed just 3 ER in 18 IP thus far, but he's gotten to face two of the bottom three offenses (in terms of runs per game). One of those came his last time out as he held Miami, who ranks dead last in MLB in scoring, to just one run over seven innings. Buchholz "scattered" six hits across the outing and also had nine strikeouts, which was nearly double the number he had in his first two starts combined. The Arizona offense has also been rather anemic away from Chase Field, scoring just 3.8 rpg w/ a collective batting average of .212. What's pretty shocking though is that those numbers aren't down too much from where the offense is at overall. The D'backs .217 BA for the year is easily last in all of MLB. The gap between them and the 29th team (Toronto) is actually larger than the gap between the Blue Jays and the #22 team! 8* San Francisco

6* Cleveland (1:10 ET): A battle of division leaders finishing off a brief two-game set here and the home team won yday by a score of 3-2 behind seven strong innings from Corey Kluber. While it maybe fair to call the Indians a "disappointment" at this juncture of the season ("only" 31-28 on the season), trust me when I say that they can easily run away w/ the AL Central, a division which is likely to finish no other .500 team come October. Meanwhile, Milwaukee has been a bit of a surprise so far, at least to me. They may lead the NL Central, but run differential says they're clearly the #2 team in the division behind the Cubs. A 15-6 record in one-run games (NL best) has really propped them up in my view and that's due to change moving forward. Go w/ the Tribe in this one. 

For years, the American League has dominated Interleague Play (last losing season was '03). Therefore, it's a bit of a surprise to see the Senior Circuit sporting a 48-37 record currently vs the AL. Then again, the AL has only six teams that are more than a game above .500 right now. But Cleveland is one of them and has gone 5-2 vs. the NL this season, including yday's win. They split a pair of games in Milwaukee early last month and have proven themselves to be a better team here at Progressive Field where their record now stands at 19-11 for the year. Today being a day game also helps Cleveland's cause as the Brewers are just 12-12 in day games so far (as opposed to 25-12 at night). The Indians are also averaging a healthy 6.0 rpg at home this season. 

Starting today for the Tribe will be Carlos Carrasco. A key part of a fearsome rotation LY, Carrasco has struggled a bit here in '18. He's coming off B2B poor outings, but I like his chances here against a Brewers lineup that has been held to three runs in five of its previous six games. Let's also keep in mind that Carrasco was 4-0 through his first five starts w/ a 2.31 ERA. Milwaukee counters w/ Chase Anderson, who is having issues of his own lately. Anderson has allowed 4+ runs in four of his last five outings and the last one did come in an American League park as the Brew Crew lost to the lowly White Sox, 8-3. Anderson again has to face a lineup w/ a DH here and one that's a lot more potent than the White Sox to boot. Even w/ the addition of the designated hitter to their lineup, the Brew Crew can't match the Indians run for run as they're only averaging 4.2 rpg for the year. The Tribe should take this one easily. 6* Cleveland

10* Houston (8:10 ET): This series will put to the test my theory that run differential is a far better predictor of future outcomes than a team's actual won-loss record. For Seattle, who is in first place in the AL West, is only +17 in run diff for the season despite the 37-22 record. Houston, just two games back in the loss column, has outscored its opponents by a MLB-best 122 runs. Moving forward, I expect the Astros to run away w/ this division for a second straight year. I also like them tonight in the start of a key three-game set. They took three of four from the Mariners up in Safeco Field back in April. This series is a chance to teach the M's "who's boss" in the AL West. 

Pitching has been the Astros' calling card so far this season w/ the team giving up only 2.9 runs per game. Surprisingly though, former Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel is no better than third in the rotation at this point and actually might be the weakest of the five! Keuchel has struggled some of late, but didn't when he faced Seattle earlier this year, tossing a complete game and giving up just two runs on six hits. Unfortunately though, James Paxton was better and the Mariners won the game, 2-1. But Keuchel, who defeated Seattle three times last season, still sports a career 2.67 ERA against this opponent and I believe he'll pitch well tonight as he has done for most of his career at Minute Maid Park. He has a 1.097 WHIP in five home starts so far this season. 

Paxton has been really good for the surprising M's as he's allowed 3 ER or fewer in 10 of 12 starts, including seven in a row. Therefore, given the team's success, you'd expect Paxton to have a better TSR than 7-5. The key to the fact Seattle is ahead of Houston in the standings has been one-run games. The Mariners are 18-9 in such games (best record in MLB) and 9 of their last 13 victories have come by that exact margin. Simply put, that's not sustainable. Houston is 4-12 in one-run games (worst in MLB!), but 16-2 when the game is decided by five runs or more. Based on expected win total, the Astros should have a 12-game lead on the Mariners in the division right now. That discrepancy will start to get rectified tonight. 10* Houston

8* Oakland (8:05 ET): Even though run differential clearly states that Houston is the best team (and I would concur!), the AL West is shaping up to be a suprisingly competitive race w/ four teams currently above .500. Texas would be the outlier as they are 12 games below the Mendoza Line and have given up the second most runs in all of baseball. The gap between them and fourth place Oakland is larger than the gap that exists between the A's and first place Seattle! Starting today, the A's and Rangers play a three-game set in Arlington. They played seven times in the month of April with the teams splitting a four game set in Oakland and then the A's took two of three here at Globe Life Park. Oakland would seem to have a rather decided edge on the mound this evening and I'll side w/ them. 

Sean Manaea toes the rubber tonight for the visiting team, bringing in a disappointing 6-6 team start record. I say "disappointing" because despite a string of recent subpar efforts, his WHIP for the season is still 0.973. While he's allowed 4 or more runs in six consecutive starts, note he allowed 2 or fewer in each of the first six! So which half-dozen start sample size is more indicative of the way Manaea will pitch moving forward? I say the first. Remember he threw a no-hitter during that stretch. Texas is not a strong offensive team as the team is batting a collective .225 its L20 games w/ only two hitters above .250 during that time. When Manaea faced the Rangers earlier in the year, he held them to just one run on three hits over eight innings.

Maybe Manaea has struggled some of late, but that's nothing compared to the kind of season starter Matt Moore is having for the Rangers. Moore has an 8.02 ERA and 2.022 WHIP for the season (10 starts) and has allowed fewer than three runs just once. He's also lasted six full innings only one time this season. He's given up five runs in B2B starts and this Texas offense shouldn't be counted on for much support. I talked about the batting average above, plus they've scored a total of only five runs the last four games. Oakland has won three of its last four games, including a 16-0 win over KC on Friday. For the season, the A's are averaging 5.5 rpg on the road (#3 in MLB) while the Rangers are giving up 6.0 rpg at home (29th, trailing only Colorado). 8* Oakland 

8* Over Rockies/Reds (7:10 ET): These teams played a series less than two weeks ago, at Coors Field, where all three games stayed Under the total. Those results speak to how Colorado has played most of this year, especially on the road where their games average a scant 7.4 runs per contest. Free from the confines of their hitter-friendly ballpark, the Rockies' pitching staff performs much better, allowing just 3.7 rpg w/ opponents batting just .223. Unfortunately, coming along with that is their own similar offensive decline, also down to 3.7 rpg, and they're hitting only .215 themselves. But there's something else to consider when the Rockies are the road team. That's the O/U line is going to be a lot lower. It was 11.0 or higher for all three games w/ the Reds earlier this season. I'll call for an Over here, which would break a long streak of Unders (7 straight meetings) between the two teams. 

Colorado has certainly given up plenty of runs during a four-game losing skid. They were swept over the weekend (at home) by LA (I was on the Dodgers twice) and gave up 33 runs in the process. Including a loss to the Giants last Wednesday, they've now given up 40 runs in the last 4 games. Kyle Freeland gets the start tonight and while like most Rockies pitchers he's better on the road, he's more than capable of giving up plenty of runs. He allowed 2 HR's in his last start and his ERA on the road is 4.17. Freeland is also "backed" by a bullpen that had a tough weekend against the Dodgers, giving up leads in every game.

As mentioned above, these teams have a recent history of going Under against one another. Going back to last year, seven straight meetings have stayed Under. But all seven games were at Coors Field and had O/U lines of 11 runs or higher. It's a big difference now that we're in Cincinnati. The air may not be as thin, but the total is lower. The Reds' pitching staff ranks 27th or lower in ERA, WHIP and opponents' batting average, not to mention they've also given up the most runs in the National League. Anthony DeSclafani is starting at the big league level for the first time since 2016 today for the Reds. Injuries robbed him of 2017 and quite frankly he's only starting here b/c Homer Bailey has been so bad. DeSclafani didn't exactly light it up in his rehab starts either, allowing 20 hits in 19 1/3 IP at Triple-A Louisville. 8* Over Rockies/Reds

8* Run Line Kansas City (10:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Royals at +1.5. Back in April, these teams played three times in what was supposed to be a four-game set (one rainout) in KC. The Angels took all three games. Now the Royals have a shot at revenge and while I must concede my overall outlook on this club isn't good, I see them doing no worse than a one-run loss here. Despite a poor record and an embarrassing 16-0 loss Friday (to the A's), the Royals are still 7-5 overall their last 12 games. The Angels come in off a successful series against Texas (took two of three), but have a losing home record (14-18), burning a lot of money in the process (-8.2 units). 

Danny Duffy will start for the Royals tonight. The team's Opening Day starter did not get off to a good start here in 2018 as he was 1-6 through his first 10 starts w/ a 6.88 ERA. At one point, he went through a stretch where he allowed 5+ ER in six of seven outings. But while he's still near the bottom of the pile in terms of net units for all starters (-5.9), Duffy comes in off B2B quality efforts and most importantly the team won both times. Duffy allowed just one run to the Rangers and Twins, on only four hits each, while working a total of 13 2/3 innings. He did not face the Angels in the April series, but is 2-1 all-time against them w/ a 3.46 ERA. The Angels' lineup is batting just .222 at home for the year. 

Nick Tropeano will get the baseball for the home team tonight. He did pitch in that last series between the teams and shut out KC for 6 2/3 innings. But even after B2B quality starts himself (both on the road), Tropeano has some issues. He's winless in four tries at home and has a 5.31 ERA and 1.426 WHIP. This Angels' lineup has struggled regardless of where it's played lately as they've been held to three runs or fewer in six of the last eight contests. They're also just 5-9 when facing a LH starter this year. 8* Run Line Kansas City (+1.5)

10* Over Golden Knights/Capitals (8:05 ET): Neither of these two franchises has ever hoisted Lord Stanley's Cup. But as you know, that's a highly misleading statement. Washington has been competing for 44 seasons while Vegas is in its first year of existence. The Capitals have never been closer though. After dropping Game 1 in Sin City (6-4), they've stormed back to take the L2 games. I was on them in Game 3 as they controlled largely from start to finish en route to a 3-1 victory. As I said in my analysis, I think it's now fair to ask if Golden Knights' goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury has has hit a bit of a "wall." After coming into the Cup Finals w/ an incredible .947 save percentage, he's allowed 10 goals in three games. At the same time though, I expect Vegas to bounce back offensively here in Game 4 as well. I'm on the Over. 

After outshooting the Capitals in both games in Vegas, the Golden Knights were held to just 22 shots on goal in Game 3. They have been outshot in these playoffs, but that hadn't mattered before w/ Fleury performing at such a ridiculous level. But now that their netminder might be regressing a bit, the offense has to pick it up a bit. Remember that they did score six goals in Game 1 (one on an empty net). Granted, the Knights aren't nearly as prolific in the goal scoring department on the road as they are at home. But they still average nearly 3.0 goals per game on the road. Getting the power play going would be a big help. They are just 11 for 59 w/ the man advantage in the playoffs and failed to convert on either of their chances in Game 3. 

Washington's power play was a huge story for the first two rounds of this postseason, but has since "tailed off" some as they are getting fewer and fewer chances. They're just 2 for 10 over the L5 games, but still at 27.3% for the playoffs. They were 0 for 4 in Game 3 and I suspect if they get that many chances again, they won't fail to convert again here. Braden Holtby is outplaying Fleury between the pipes in this series and while he's been a better goaltender at home throughout the course of the season, the Over is still 41-29-5 in all of his starts. The Capitals are averaging 3.5 goals per game in the playoffs and have scored no fewer than three in each of the L5 games. 10* Over Golden Knights/Capitals

10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): This is an interesting game to handicap. The crux of the arguement hinges on whether or not the underdog Cavaliers truly have a formula to stick w/ the heavily favored Warriors, or will they be "emotionally spent" coming off a brutal Game 1 overtime loss? For me, I believe it's the former. I understand the need for the marketplace to "respect" the Dubs, but to me, the oddsmakers have them overpriced in this series. As maligned as this year's "supporting cast" might be, any team that can claim LeBron James on its roster is capable of winning on any given night. I almost never mention the officiating in my analysis, but there was certainly a myriad of calls that went against the Cavs Thursday night that cost them the chance at pulling the outright upset. After cashing the Over in Game 1, I'll take the points in Game 2. 

James had 51 points in Game 1 (on 19 of 32 shooting) to go along w/ eight rebounds and eight assists. It's a real shame how it was "wasted." His teammates went a combined 25 of 67 from the field (just 37.3%) including 7 of 30 from three-point range. Obviously, they need to be better. There was the JR Smith gaffe that will live in infamy, which followed a George Hill missed free throw that could have won the game at the end of regulation. Kevin Love played pretty well, but was also just 1 of 8 from behind the arc. I expect the supporting cast to be "better" here, which it will need to be as it would be beyond any superlative were James to score 50+ again. One key area where the Cavs did dominate Game 1 though was on the glass. They outrebounded Golden State 64-42, including 19-4 on the offensive end. Tristan Thompson will NOT be suspended here and I see no reason why the Cavs can't dominate the "smallish" Warriors on the glass again. 

This is the fourth time this postseason that Golden State has won three straight games. They have yet to win four straight. They lost Game 4 of the San Antonio series, then Game 3 of the New Orleans series and then Game 2 of the series as well. Now all of those losses did take place on the road. They have lost once at home this postseason (Game 4 vs. Houston), but overall have won 18 of their last 19 playoff games at Oracle Arena. I want to point out though that each of the last three games have seen them have to rally from a deficit of at least nine points. That doesn't seem like a very sustainable blueprint to me. Andre Iguodala is still out w/ a knee injury and listed as doubtful. I'm not sure the team shoots 51.1% from the floor again like it did in Game 1 either. For the season, when off three or more consecutive SU wins, the Warriors are just 8-21 ATS. Cleveland is 5-1 SU this postseason when down in the series and 17-10 ATS as an underdog this season. 10* Cleveland 

8* LA Dodgers (3:10 ET): Anyone who follows my picks on a regular basis knows that I'm pretty clear about the notion of a team's scoring differential being a better predictor of future success than the actual won-loss record (this goes for any sport). So, I can't say I'm surprised that the change in the NL West that run differentials foretold is starting to take hold this weekend at Coors Field. The Rockies fall out of first place in the division was pretty easy to predict if you'd noticed that they'd actually been outscored by a pretty healthy margin over the course of the season. They've dropped the first two games of the series and now sport a YTD run differential of -28. Meanwhile, the Dodgers (who I had in the first game (on Friday)) own the division's best run differential at +34. They are a fourth place team "in name only" and I'll call for them to finish off the sweep Sunday afternoon. 

The Dodgers have taken advantage of the thin air of Coors Field to score 23 runs in the first two games. A eight-run seventh was the difference in last night's victory as they improved to 4-1 head to head vs. the Rockies this season. Alex Wood gets the start today and while he has just one win in 11 starts, that's highly misleading. Wood has pitched pretty decently (1.043 WHIP), save for his last outing when he gave up three home runs in a loss to San Diego. But prior to that, he'd allowed 2 ER or less in four straight starts. He's allowed three runs or less in 8 of his 11 starts overall. Note that Wood is working on extended rest here as he was initially set to start Friday's opener, but that got pushed back. That aforementioned last start in San Diego came last Saturday or eight days ago. 

Strangely, the Rockies have NOT been hitting well in their home park this season. More or less, this is a franchise defined by Coors Field, skewing both its hitting and pitching numbers rather dramatically when it comes to home vs. road splits. They are up to 5.0 rpg at home this year, but at the same time they're also giving up 5.8. As a result, the home record is only 11-14. The Dodgers, winners of 12 of their last 16 overall, are currently on a six-game win streak on the road. Starting today for Colorado will be Chad Bettis, who has been just plain awful so far at Coors. He has a 7.06 ERA and 1.661 WHIP in four starts here, far different than what we've seen from him outside this tricky environment. Last time out, Bettis allowed five runs on 10 hits here to a pretty weak hitting San Francisco team. He's allowed a total of 12 runs on 20 hits in his last two starts here, which have spanned only 11 innings. Strikeout numbers also remain unimpressive for Bettis, who has a 6.95 ERA his L4 starts overall while allowing an .869 OPS. Opposing hitters are batting .315 against him during that span. 8* LA Dodgers

8* NY Mets (1:10 ET): I can't say that I'm terribly surprised to see the Cubs having come into Citi Field and taken the first three games of this four-game set. After all, their NL-best run differential (now +91) indicated that a run was forthcoming. However, as I talked about in Thursday's winner on the A's (against Tampa Bay), it's very hard for a road team to come in and sweep a four-game series. So, it's time to step in and grab the Mets at what I feel is an inflated price Sunday. Last night marked a brutal loss for the home team as they fell 7-1 in 14 innings. That despite their pitchers striking 24 Cubs hitters out over the course of the game! It's a quick turnaround, but history indicates the Mets will avoid the sweep here. 

That 11-1 start to the season for the Mets is now a distant memory as the club has gone just 16-28 its L44 games under 1st year skipper Mickey Callahan. They've dropped 8 of their last 10. Both teams had ample reasons to be frustrated over last night, but particularly the Mets as they wasted a great start from Jacob deGrom and also left the bases loaded in the bottom of the 13th. All told, they stranded 11 baserunners in the game. Today's starter Steven Matz is not as strong as deGrom, but I feel has the capability to get the job done. Remember; the Cubs did strikeout 24 (!!) times yday. Matz did exit his last start early (after three scoreless innings) due to a middle finger strain. However, he threw his usual bullpen session on Friday and is ready to go. Matz hasn't allowed a single run over his last 9 IP and has allowed 1 ER or fewer in four of his last five turns. 

The Cubs will turn to Jon Lester here, making it a battle of southpaws on the mound. Lester had been pitching well before his last start when he gave up four runs in six innings against Pittsburgh. The Cubs still won the game mind you, 8-6, but it was far from the veteran Lester's "finest hour" as he gave up two home runs. Something to keep in mind when Lester starts is that the Cubs basically have an eight-hitter lineup. For his career, Lester is a .094 hitter. Matz isn't Ty Cobb by any means, but he's at least better than .094. The Cubs have only two win streaks longer than three games this year (both 5) and the last one came at the expense of the White Sox and Marlins, possibly the two worst teams in baseball. Meanwhile, the Mets have lost more than three in a row only one time this season and that was at the start of May. 8* NY Mets

8* Texas (9:05 ET): Well, the Rangers certainly didn't work out last night (my only loss) as they lost 6-0 here in LA, dropping to 0-4 head to head YTD vs. the Angels in the process. But that won't stop me from grabbing them at a greatly inflated price here tonight. It's tough to sweep the same opponent two times, especially if it's a division rival, so it's only a matter of time before Texas breaks through in this AL West battle. I feel tonight's the night as Cole Hamels toes the rubber. Hamels has pitched very well in the past here in Anaheim, posting a 2.16 ERA in five starts and never allowing more than 2 ER. The Angels are still -7.5 units for the season at home (13-17 overall). 

Last night marked just the second time all season that the Rangers were shutout. The only previous occasion was on 5.20 vs. the White Sox. They would respond by scoring 33 runs over the next three games. I like the chances of a similar outburst taking shape starting tonight as they face Garrett Richards. Richards has not beaten Texas since September of 2015, going 0-3 in five starts since. Richards is also 0-3 his L3 starts overall coming into tonight's game, due in large part to a 1.465 WHIP. He had five walks in his last start as he lasted only 2 1/3 innings against the Yankees. That ended up being a 3-1 loss for the Halos, who have scored a total of just four runs in Richards' last three starts as well. The Angels' offense is still averaging only 3.9 rpg at home this season w/ a .223 batting average. Richards has a 4.21 ERA at home as well. Over the L3 seasons, the team is only 8-17 when coming off a shutout win. 

Though he struggled in his last start (gave up five runs to KC), Hamels is still deserving of a far better team start record than his current 3-8. Prior to struggling Sunday, he'd allowed 2 ER or fewer five times in a row (allowed just nine runs total in 30 1/3 IP). He was priced at -190 on the ML in his last start, so this seems like a really good value. In his last road start, he outdueled Houston's Justin Verlander (won 1-0) to cash at +225 on the ML! The Angels did not have to face Hamels in the previous series between the teams, back in April. Texas did face Richards however, and while they lost, they did draw five walks and the Angels started exited after just 4 1/3 innings of work. Richards has made it past the sixth in only two of his last six starts while Hamels routinely pitches deep into games. Also, the Rangers' bullpen actually did a good job last night, not allowing any runs over the final five innings. 8* Texas 

10* Washington (8:15 ET): You have to tip your cap to the job done by the expansion team in Vegas, but let's see how they now respond to some true adversity. After taking Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals, 6-4, the Golden Knights dropped Game 2 at home by a score of 3-2. They were oh so close to forcing overtime Wednesday, only to be robbed by Capitals' goalie Braden Holtby in the closing minutes. Now the series shifts to the Nation's Capital and perhaps that isn't the key as much as the game NOT being in Vegas is. Even w/ the Game 2 loss, the Knights are 35-12-2 in their home building this year (6-2 in playoffs). But on the road, they're a far more pedestrian 28-16-5. The Caps are a bizarre 4-5 SU at home this postseason, but I don't see them losing here. 

Holtby, the hero of Game 2, is a far better goaltender here at the Verizon Center. While his save percentage for the year is below .900 on the road, here at home that number is .920. Over the last four games, which includes two shutouts of the top-scoring team in the league (Tampa Bay), Holtby has stopped 118 of the 125 shots he's faced. Five of those goals he allowed came in Game 1. Though Vegas still has a winning road record, they are basically dead even in terms of goals scored vs. allowed in those contests. This is a team that has managed to outscore its opponents in the playoffs by a full goal per game despite being outshot. That's largely owed to goalie Marc-Andre Fleury, who was other-worldly in the first three rounds, but also may be hitting the proverbial "wall." He's given up seven goals so far in the Stanley Cup Finals, easily the most he's allowed in any two-game stretch this postseason where one of the games did not go into OT. 

Vegas' scoring average also dips below 3.0 goals per game on the road. Washington has outscored its playoff opponents by roughly the same margin as has Vegas, but they have outshot their opponents as well and are scoring more (3.5 gpg). Shockingly, they have dropped their first home game of every series though thus far. With a chance to seize "momentum" (hate that word!), they don't dare repeat that trend here. I realize that Vegas has yet to drop B2B games in the playoffs, but the Caps are also 4-1 SU this postseason when tied in the series. It's not like the Capitals were a bad home team in the regular season either. Keep in mind they are 13-7 SU in the playoffs since Holtby permanently took over in goal and he's got a 2.19 goals against average. 10* Washington

8* Toronto (4:05 ET): Since getting off to a 13-6 start to the season, it's been "tough sledding" for the Blue Jays. They're a money-burning 12-26 the L38 games and the current losing streak has hit four following last night's 5-2 setback here in Detroit. (They've also lost 11 of 14). Meanwhile, the Tigers have now won five of their last six, including three in a row. But I look for a "reversal of fortune" this afternoon in the Motor City. It's a "sign o' the times" when your manager says about your starting pitcher: "(Jaime) is going to be successful when he throws the ball over the plate." That's what Toronto skipper John Gibbons had to say about yday's starter Jaime Garcia, but Saturday finds him handing the baseball to J.A. Happ, who has been red hot on the mount of late. 

Happ is 3-0 his L3 starts w/ a 1.74 ERA and 0.774 WHIP. The last time Toronto won, Happ was the one pitching, leading his team to a 5-3 victory at Philadelphia. There he went 6 2/3 innings and allowed just three runs (one unearned) w/ eight strikeouts. It was his third straight quality outing, a stretch that has seen him produce a 23-5 KW ratio w/ no HR's allowed. Happ has now allowed 3 ER or fewer in six of his last seven turns and has become Toronto's best starter. He's pitched well in the past vs. the Tigers, going 3-1 w/ 3.74 ERA in eight career outings. Detroit does have Miguel Cabrera back in the lineup and is averaging 5.0 rpg at home this year. But I'm not buying into any goose (look it up!) or really this team, long-term. 

The Blue Jays do struggle to hit left-handed pitching (.224 BA) and this is a battle of southpaws here w/ Happ being opposed by Matthew Boyd. Boyd threw five scoreless innings his last time out and is having every bit the good season that Happ is having. Only Happ's team start record of 8-3 is better than Boyd's 5-5. Boyd also doesn't have the most impressive strikeout numbers as he has just four total (all of those coming in his last start) against seven walks. He's lasted a total of only nine innings in his last two starts - combined. I think it's telling that Toronto has been priced on this range, on the road, and I'll "follow the money." 8* Toronto

8* San Francisco (10:15 ET): The Giants were dead last LY in net units (-37.2) in a disaster of a campaign that saw them never really "get out of the blocks." Despite being w/o Madison Bumgarner again at the start of the season, 2018 has gone better for them as the team is a respectable 26-30, even though their -49 run differential indicates that record should be worse. Tonight though, they have some revenge to exact against Philadelphia, who earlier this year swept them in a four-game series. The rematch will be contested out on the West Coast though and that's significant considering the Phillies are below .500 on the road. After an off-day, the revenge-minded Giants should break through against the Phils Friday night. 

After dropping six of seven, SF finally came through on Wednesday, beating the Colorado Rockies by a score of 7-4. Note that the recent schedule has been pretty challenging for the Giants. They wrapped up May by taking on the Rockies (first place in the NL West) twice and also the Cubs and Astros, who have the top run differentials in the respective leagues. Not to undersell Philadelphia, who has emerged as a playoff contender out of the NL East. The Phillies are a better team than the Rockies, but not in the same class as the other two previous Giants' opponents. Looking at that previous sweep, it was a dominant performance by the Phils (outscored SF 35-8), but that was at home where they've gone 19-9. On the road, they average less than four runs per game. 

Another key in that previous series is the Giants were very banged up. Three players that were on the DL at the time - Joe Panik, Hunter Pence and Hunter Strickland - are all set to return this weekend, possibly as early as tonight. This is also a starting pitching rematch of one of those four games w/ Chase Stratton facing Nick Pivetta. Both have 8-3 team starts records, but Pivetta has the better numbers. That said, Stratton hasn't lost for the Giants since his awful showing in Philly, going 3-0 his L3 starts. Pivetta has been sharp, but also doesn't often go longer than five innings. The Giants aren't a good road team, but are 14-10 at home and they're not getting swept again by the Phillies this weekend. 8* San Francisco

8* Run Line Texas (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rangers +1.5. Not even the RL could help Texas yday as they fell to Seattle 6-1. But I'll still go with them here in a revenge spot against the Angels. It was a three-game sweep when these teams met earlier this season in Arlington. The Angels took all three games there, but what's interesting about both teams is how they've each been better on the road this season. Los Angeles is only 12-17 at home so far while Texas is a respectable 13-16 on the road (11-19 at home). It's been proven to be pretty difficult to sweep the same opponent twice in a row, particularly a division foe. I say the Rangers do no worse than a one-run loss here. 

While the Rangers were able to split up in Seattle, the Angels actually had a worse start to the week as they dropped three of four in Detroit. All three losses were by four or more runs, including 6-2 yday afternoon. Now Shohei Ohtani will be back in lineup today (pitched Weds, so he had yday off), but the bottom line is this offense has scored three runs or fewer in five of its previous seven games. I don't see them turning things around here against the ageless Bartolo Colon, who has shockingly delivered a 0.96 WHIP in his nine starts this season, including 0.706 on the road where he's unbeaten w/ a 1.59 ERA. Colon rebounded from his worst start of the year (vs. the Yankees on 5.21) by allowing just three runs over 7 IP vs. Kansas City last Saturday. He did not pitch against the Angels in the previous series. He's gone at least six innings in five straight starts and has allowed more than 4 ER only once all season. 

While Colon continues to surprise, so too does Angels starter Jaime Barria, who leads the rotation in both ERA and WHIP (yes, better than Ohtani). He's delivered a slightly better ROI than Ohtani as well, despite making three less starts, but that has to do w/ pricing. Barria has been an underdog in each of his L3 starts and actually allowed 4 ER his last time out. Shockingly, the Angels are being outscored by more than a full run per game at home this year. Therefore, I don't see them winning by multiple runs here, especially after they were able to do so in all three games vs. the Rangers in the last series. 8* Run Line Texas (+1.5)

10* LA Dodgers (8:40 ET): Run differential is often the best predictor of future outcomes, as opposed to a team's actual won-loss record. Now, many times a team's number of wins "matches up" well w/ its run differential thereby "justifying" its record. However, other times it does not. Case in point, Colorado being a first place team in the NL West at 30-26. They've been outscored by 17 runs over the course of the season. On the flip side, the Dodgers are having quite the unlucky season. They have their division's best run differential (+23), yet are in fourth place at 26-30. Arizona is a rival that's given them plenty of trouble this year (4-8 head to head record), so they can't let the same thing happen w/ Colorado. Fortunately, they took two of three from the Rockies at Chavez Ravine last month. I see them starting this series w/ a win as well.

The Dodgers' poor luck continued yday w/ not only a 2-1 loss to the Phillies, but Clayton Kershaw having to exit early due to an injury. Making his return to the rotation after biceps tendinits cost him nearly a month, the former Cy Young winner now has back issues. Tonight the team will have to rely on Alex Wood. While Wood's TSR is just 1-4 after 11 starts (and he pitched poorly his last time out), that record is not really indicative of how he's performed over the balance of the season. He has a 1.043 WHIP overall, including 1.020 on the road where his ERA is also 2.88. Wood has allowed 3 ER or less in eight of his starts this year. 

Colorado has won 10 of its last 14, but a franchise that has largely been defined by its home park (throughout its existence) has not performed as well as you might think at Coors Field in 2018. Especially at the plate. Shockingly, they are averaging less than 5.0 rpg here and being outscored for the season. They have a losing home record (11-13) as well. Starter Tyler Anderson has struggled of late too, posting a 5.82 ERA and 1.412 WHIP his L3 starts. That's facing some pretty weak opponents as well (Reds, Padres, Giants). Note there's a chance LA does NOT start Wood here and goes w/ a "by committee" approach, but in that case, the play still stands as I lean heavily to what the respective run differentials of the two teams say. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Run Line Pittsburgh (8:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Pirates +1.5. Now playing this NL Central matchup this way was a major letdown for me and anyone else who had the Bucs last night. Up 8-5 going into the bottom of the ninth (and w/ an additional +1.5 in hand), they frustratingly let the Cardinals score five times and win in walkoff fashion, 10-8. That came after Pittsburgh's own four-run eighth, which capped a comeback from an early 4-0 deficit. Losing on a walk-off 3-run HR is a really "bad beat" from where I sit, but once again I'll say the Bucs do no worse than a one-run loss here. Like yday, this starting pitching matchup is a rematch from last week's series and I'll side w/ the pitcher & team that have revenge. 

After winning his first three starts of the season, Pittsburgh has gone just 2-6 in Jameson Taillon's last eight starts. That includes a loss in the last one despite Taillon giving up just three runs on five hits over 6 1/3 innings (6-1 KW ratio). That was yet another instance of the Pirates faltering late against the Cards as they led that game 4-1 (at home) going into the seventh (lost 6-4). So last night wasn't unprecedented, nor was Taillon's performance. Despite that 2-6 TSR his last eight outings, he's allowed 3 ER or less five times during that stretch. He also allowed 3 ER or fewer in each of his first three starts where the team went 3-0. During that time, Taillon turned in B2B scoreless efforts (over 15 IP) including a complete game.

Of course, St. Louis doesn't want to hear about "bad luck" considering all the one-run losses they've suffered at the hands of first place Milwaukee this year. That said, I'm going to go against them again tonight. The bullpen has been severely overworked the L2 games and the everyday lineup is battling a slew of injuries. That puts a lot of pressure on starter Mike Mikolas and while he's been up to the task so far (6-0 in 10 starts!), he was obviously fortunate to escape w/ a no-decision his last time out. Mikolas allowed four runs in six innings opposite Taillon and appeared to be the inferior pitcher to these eyes. Now it was arguably one of Mikolas' weaker starts to date, but could it be a sign of things to come? In his 1st start against Pittsburgh this season, the shoe was on the other foot as he pitched well, but didn't factor into the decision as the Cards lost by one run. By the way, St. Louis is just 4-7 this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. 8* Run Line Pittsburgh (+1.5)

8* Run Line Texas (10:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rangers +1.5. They prevailed yday, by one run, winning 7-6. Generally speaking, one-run games have gone quite well for the Mariners this season (they have a MLB-high 16 one-run victories so far), however we know that will probably "work itself out" and regress back to the mean. Seattle is a team that I don't feel is anywhere close to as good as its overall record (33-22) and in fact I find it "laughable" that they are just one game back of an Astros team that has a MLB-best +123 run differential (Seattle only +8!). The M's are a team I'll be looking to play against when the situation calls for it as they are not only fortunate to be 16-9 in one-run games, but also 5-0 in extra innings this year. The situation calls for a 'play against' this evening. 

Texas has its own "unique" history w/ one-run games the previous two seasons. In 2016, they won the American League West w/ 95 victories. But they only had a +8 run differential for the year. How could that happen? Well, they turned in the best single-season record in one-run games in MLB HISTORY at 36-11. Last year saw them predictably regress down to 78 wins w/ a MLB WORST 13-24 mark in one-run games. While they may not improve on their overall win total here in 2018 (team is currently 24-34), they should perform better in one-run games at least. Sure enough, they're 6-5 so far (also 5-1 in extra innings). 

Now that we've got all that out of the way, let's talk about tonight's pitching matchup. Wade LeBlanc has shocked me in turning in a 4-1 TSR for Seattle w/ a 1.71 ERA and 0.949 WHIP. Interestingly though, he has yet to factor into a single decision (0-0 personal WL record). Each of his last three starts have been one-run victories by the Mariners! The Rangers counter w/ Mike Minor, whose numbers aren't as impressive as LeBlanc's, but he has a 4-3 TSR. Two of the three games in this series have been decided by one run (each team winning one), but Texas has won two straight, scoring 16 runs in the process. I feel that the Mariners' 16-12 home record is pretty phony considering they have been outscored by 0.4 rpg. Meanwhile, the Rangers have actually performed far better on the road this season than they have at home. 8* Run Line Texas (+1.5)

10* Over Cavaliers/Warriors (9:05 ET): For the fourth consecutive year, we have the same two teams meeting in the NBA Finals. Over the year four year span of 1984-1987, the Celtics and Lakers met three times (not '86 as the Celtics met the Rockets instead), but that's the only comparable thing (in my lifetime) to what we're seeing here. Golden State has beaten Cleveland twice over the previous three Finals, winning in six games in '15 and just five last year. The Cavs won their lone NBA Title in 2016, stunning the Warriors by rallying back from a 3-1 series deficit to win in seven games. Were they to win it all this year, it would be considered an even bigger upset than two years ago, both by the odds and logic. Cleveland no longer has Kyrie Irving while GSW now has Kevin Durant. Still, it is pretty remarkable that a team w/ the best player in the world on its roster (that being LeBron James) would be this prohibitive an underdog. 

Unders reigned supreme in the Conference Finals, going 11-3 overall. Breaking it down, that was 6-1 in the Warriors' series vs. the Rockets and 5-2 for the Cavs vs. Celtics. The low-scoring games in the Western Conference Finals were particularly surprising as those were the top two offensive teams in the league matched up. Oddsmakers continued to drop the O/U line throughout the series, all the way down to 208 for Game 7 (after the O/U line was 227.5 for Gm 4!), but it still didn't matter. Incredibly, the Dubs held Houston to an average of only 91.2 points on 39.2% shooting over the last five games. The Warriors did exceed their own YTD scoring average of 112.7 PPG three times over the course of the series. 

It was a similar story in the Eastern Conference Finals w/ Game 7 closing w/ the lowest O/U line of the series and it also being - by far - the lowest scoring game. Oddsmakers had dropped the number by a full 10 pts from a series high of 207 (Gm 3), but to no avail. I see the NBA Finals, at least Game 1, changing this trend. While both regular season matchups between these teams stayed Under, one had a total of 234.0 and the other was an ugly shooting X-Mas Day game (GSW won both). Though they've improved somewhat dramatically in the postseason, Cleveland was a terrible defensive team in the regular season, ranking 28th in efficiency. Both teams were in the top five in offensive efficiency, however, and I simply cannot see two teams w/ this much firepower continuing to stay Under the number so consistently. The final four games of LY's Finals all went Over and the totals were much higher. 10* Over Cavaliers/Warriors

8* Run Line Pittsburgh (7:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Pirates at +1.5. The Bucs won yday, 2-1, thus avoiding what would have been a three-game sweep (at home) at the hands of the Cubs. Truthfully, it has not been a great finish to the month as the team has dropped 9 of its last 12 after winning eight of nine prior to that. Now they face another NL Central rival, one that they can look to extract some revenge against for a pair of losses last weekend. St. Louis took two of three at PNC Park over the Memorial Day weekend, but let me down yday afternoon with another one-run loss to the Brewers. Here, I don't see the Redbirds doing any better than a one-run win. Take the +1.5. 

The pitching matchup Friday features a repeat of last Saturday with Trevor Williams (PIT) again facing off against Jack Flaherty (StL). Interestingly enough, I backed Flaherty and the Cards in that game and it was a pretty easy 4-1 victory. At the time, St. Louis was still looking to avenge a three-game sweep that happened at PNC Park late last month. They did, but now the proverbial "shoe is on the other foot" w/ the Pirates playing w/ revenge. This is a favorite situation of mine where you have two pitchers facing off in B2B starts and you take the one who lost the prior meeting. Getting an additional 1.5 runs to work with in the spot seems like a nice luxury to have as well.

Flaherty allowed just one run and four hits over 6 IP on Saturday, continuing a string of solid showings here in 2018. Interestingly enough though, this will be just his second start at home. Meanwhile, Williams has pitched better on the road than at home this season (3.14 ERA, 1.046 WHIP). While only one of the six head to head meetings this year between these teams have been decided by one run, both have been involved in their fair share of such affairs throughout the course of the season (like yday!). The Bucs are still 4-2 vs. the Cards in '18 and have scored at least four runs in all but one of those games. 8* Run Line Pittsburgh (+1.5)

8* Chi Cubs (7:10 ET): The Cubs may have missed out on a chance to sweep the Pirates yesterday (lost 2-1), but I like the team's chances this weekend in Queens, particularly in tonight's series opener. In terms of gaps between expected (based on run differential) and actual wins, these two clubs happen to own two of the largest, albeit on opposite sides of the ledger. The Cubs are already starting to make their move in the NL Central (now in second place), but a +76 run differential (NL's best!) indicates that even "better times" are forthcoming. Meanwhile, the Mets' 11-1 start is largely a "distant memory" as they've been outscored by 16 runs on the season and gone just 16-25 since under first year skipper Mickey Callahan. Cubs win, Cubs win today. 

Other than the Astros (who have baseball's best run differential), no team has "underperformed" in terms of actual wins and losses more than the Cubs. Based on them outscoring their opponents by 76 runs this year, we should "expect" 34 wins out of them at this point. They have only 29. I'm not concerned though and fully expect Joe Maddon's team to start asserting itself. We'd already started to see signs with a three-game win streak going into yesterday where the offense totaled 23 runs and 39 hits. They had no answer for the Pirates' Joe Musgrove yday, but facing the Mets' Seth Lugo (making 1st start of season) tonight should be a different story. Lugo is only in a starter's role here due to Noah Syndergaard being on the 10-day DL. We last saw him in a relief role on Monday as he allowed three runs in 1 1/3 innings to Atlanta and took the loss. Over the L7 games, the Mets have allowed an average of 6.6 rpg w/ opponents batting .303. Yikes! Lugo is only expected to go 50-60 pitches here. 

The Cubs are only 14-12 on the road this season, but "should" have a much better record given that they've outscored their opponents by almost two full runs per game outside of Wrigley. The pitching staff has limited opposing hitters to a .215 average on the road, which is really impressive. Jose Quintana gets the starting nod here and while he's failed get past the fifth inning in three of his five May starts, it's not like he's been pitching that poorly. It was the second time through the order that got him Saturday vs. San Francisco, but prior to that he'd tossed 10 straight scoreless innings of one-hit ball w/ 13 K's. In two career starts vs. the Mets, Quintana has a 1.93 ERA. The Cubs are 13-8 off a loss this season and I like them quite a bit Friday. 8* Chi Cubs

10* Oakland (3:35 ET): This series has certainly not gone well for the home team as they've dropped three in a row to the visiting Rays. The first two losses were both by one run, but last night was much uglier as the A's fell 6-0 as they were no-hit for six innings by Nathan Eovaldi (who was then pulled!), someone who had not pitched at the big-league level in almost two years (two Tommy John surgeries). To add insult to injury, there weren't even many people there to witness the game. The announced attendence was 6,295, the lowest number in Oakland since '03. With today's finale being a day game, it should be another sparse crowd, but those who do venture to the ballpark will be rewarded w/ a win by the home team. I say that due to the fact the A's have their best pitcher going Thursday afternoon and you just don't see teams get swept at home in four-game series very often.

Despite losing each of the last three days, Oakland is still a .500 team on the season. That includes a 7-4 record when Mengden starts as he's gone 3-0 his L3 outings w/ some ridiculous numbers, like a 0.41 ERA and 0.591 WHIP. He's coming off B2B scoreless efforts (16 IP) including a complete game two-hit shutout of Arizona on Saturday. Prior to that, he also allowed just two hits over seven scoreless innings in a win at Toronto. Going back further, Mengden has allowed 2 ER or fewer in seven of his last eight starts, including five straight. He's allowed just four runs over his last 33 2/3 IP. While strikeout numbers are by no means dominant, he did induce 13 outs via groundball last time out, which is typically a good sign. 

Now the Oakland offense is going to have to "wake up" here as they've been shutout twice in the series and scored just three runs in 31 total innings vs. Rays pitching. Fortunately, the team's home run leader (Khris Davis) is expected to be back in the lineup today. While the home run ball hasn't really been a problem for the A's during Davis' absence (they've hit five - but all were solo shots), still they've scored just 15 total runs in nine games w/o him. Tampa Bay continues to be extremely creative w/ its pitching staff (like it!) and has actually used 12 different arms in this series. Today, they'll go w/ Ryne Stanek as the starter for just the second time all season. His first start was Saturday, but he faced only five batters (retired them all). He also pitched on Monday, in relief, and got the win thanks to 1 2/3 scoreless innings. As creative as TB skipper Kevin Cash has been, I don't see the Rays "solving" Mengden and the A's avoid the sweep. 10* Oakland

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): Well, after they came from behind to "steal" the series opener Monday night, turns out that it was a mistake jumping on the Dodgers' bandwagon Tuesday as they fell 6-1 to the Phillies. Given that they scored all of one run the entire game, maybe this didn't matter, but starter Kenta Maeda had to leave early (in the second inning) and to me that was the clear culprit in what ended up being a bad night. Facing a red-hot Jake Arrieta didn't help matters either for Dodger Blue. But this team is still due for better results, given it has not only outscored its opponents this season, but also owns the best run differential in the entire NL West! They've dug themselves a bit of a hole to start the season, but it's not something that they can't climb out of. 

Last night's win was just the second for the Phillies in the L3 seasons at Chavez Ravine. Granted, they haven't been very good the last two years. But this team, despite its "breakthrough success" early on in 2018, is surprisingly just 14-15 off a win so far and has a losing road record. There's no Arrieta to lean on tonight as it will instead by Zach Eflin on the bump. Eflin has lasted only 4 2/3 innings each of his last two starts and has given up a total of 10 runs. Three of those were unearned, but there's really no sugarcoating his last time out when he gave up six runs (five earned) to an American League opponent (Toronto) that was sans its DH. 

The Dodgers counter w/ Ross Stripling, who is only in the starting rotation due to injuries suffered by both Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill. However, Stripling has certainly pitched as if he "belongs" in this starting group as he's averaging a very impressive 10.89 K's per nine innings. Over his L3 starts, he has a 26-0 KW ratio over 18 IP. He's allowed just four runs total his last four starts (one unearned) and now has a 1.74 ERA in 41 1/3 innings of work. Last time out may have been his sharpest performance to date as he threw 10 K's in 6 2/3 innings and gave up just an unearned run. He's also allowed zero home runs over those last four starts. Stripling has a much better WHIP than Eflin recently (0.889 vs. 1.437 L3 starts respectively) and I see the Dodgers going up in this series. 8* LA Dodgers

8* Vegas (8:05 ET): The incredible story that is the Golden Knights continued with (what else?) a win in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals as they scored six times on the Caps in a resounding Game 1 performance. Quickly, we realized this wasn't your "normal" expansion team and the first sign of success was the establishing of a tremendous home ice advantage that would persist throughout the season. The Golden Knights are now 36-11-2 SU in Sin City and that includes 7-1 in the playoffs (w/ the one loss coming in OT). They are also now 3-0 against the Capitals, having scored 13 goals while allowing just 7. Vegas is the better team here (incredible to say!) and should again take care of business at the T-Mobile Arena. Note the Caps have now lost four of their last six games.

The Golden Knights have been outshot this postseason, but it hasn't mattered as they're allowing just 1.9 goals per game. That's thanks to goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, who came into this series sporting a .945 save percentage. The fact Vegas was able to win Gm 1 despite Fleury allowing four goals should be considered a very positive sign. Not only is it likely Fluery will bounce back (based on what he's done already in the playoffs), but the Golden Knights are 17-9 SU this season after allowing four or more goals the previous season. While Washington has dropped four of its last six games overall, Vegas has won five in a row, not to mention seven of its last eight. There have been just three times previous to Game 1 that they allowed 4 goals in a postseason game. They came back and won the next time out every time. 

Following B2B shuouts to close out Tampa Bay in the Eastern Conference Finals, Capitals' netminder Braden Holtby regressed in a major way on Monday giving up five goals on 33 shots (Vegas added an empty-netter at the end). Of course, I've pointed out before that Holtby has generally not been the same on the road this year. His save percentage dipped back below .900 for the season away from home after the Game 1 performance.To me, it's a little surprising that Holtby's WL record isn't that much different on the road compared to at home despite the save percentage being far lower. The Caps have done well when down in the series this postseason, winning four straight times in that scenario. But the last two times in this spot, they were the home team. Their power play has really carried them in the playoffs, but they failed on their only chance in Game 1 and aren't getting nearly the number of opportunities w/ the man advantage of late. Their just 1 for 8 the L5 games. Maybe Washington does get back into this series, but that will have to wait until they're back home Saturday. 8* Vegas

8* St. Louis (1:10 ET): The NL Central looks to have the potential to be the tightest pennant race this season w/ every team - sans Cincinnati - having a legit shot at winning the division. Two of the four teams in question play a rubber match this afternoon after splitting a pair of battles Monday and Tuesday. The Brewers are in first place right now, at least 3.5 games up on the rest of the field, which includes St. Louis. But the Cards won here yday, in pretty dominant fashion, by a score of 6-1. That put them four games back of the division lead and in third place. My view on the Brew Crew is that they are being "artificially" propped up by a rather fortunate 14-5 record in one run games (best in MLB), not to mention they're also 4-1 in extra inning affairs. I look for their "luck" to take a turn for the worse moving forward and I believe they'll lose this series finale. 

Milwaukee had won four in a row going into yday, but quickly found itself down to the Redbirds on Tuesday and never really got back in the game. Three home runs, plus 6 2/3 strong innings from starter Michael Wacha, keyed the St. Louis victory which was their third in the last four games. Today, we'll see Alex Reyes make his first big-league start since 2016. He missed all of LY due to Tommy John surgery, but his minor league performance should give St. Louis plenty of reason for optimism. Reyes has pitched 23 scoreless innings "down on the farm" while striking out an incredible 44 of the 82 batters he faced (allowed only 14 baserunners)! That sounds a lot like his 2016 performance when he struck out 52 in 46 IP w/ a 1.57 ERA. Like I said, there's plenty of reasons to be excited here.

Milwaukee's Junior Guerra survived allowing two solo home runs in his last start and has allowed 2 ER or fewer in seven of his nine starts this season. But his strikeout numbers remain pretty unimpressive while his walk totals are pretty high. Over his L3 starts, he has a KW ratio of only 10-6 and that's w/ no free passes his last time out. The team has actually not done that well w/ Guerra on the hill, going only 2-4 his last six starts after winning each of his first three. He's already faced St. Louis already this season and allowed just one run in 5 1/3 IP. But in five career starts against them, his ERA is still just 4.74. While these division rivals have split eight games so far this season, three of the Cards' four wins have been by four runs or more while Milwaukee's four wins have come by eight runs total (three by one run). 8* St. Louis

8* San Diego (10:10 ET): Endorsements of the Padres this season will be few and far between, but this series represents one of the few times they'll be favored on the money line, and for good reason, as they're at home facing an opponent that is actually inferior on paper. Now Miami did come in and take yday's series opener, by a score of 7-2. But this Marlins team is really bad and I love the idea of fading them off a win. Not only do the Fish own one of the worst records in the entire National League (20-33), they also have the worst run differential (-90) in all of baseball. As bad as things have been for them so far this season, one could argue that they should be even worse. Case in point, they're somehow 10-15 on the road despite being outscored by 2.2 rpg! 

Because they are almost always underdogs, the Marlins have actually not dropped many units at the pay windown (only -1.3 for the season). By far, their most profitable starter has been Dan Straily, who will get the baseball tonight. The team has won all five Straily starts this season, even though his numbers haven't exactly been dominant. We're talking a 3.12 ERA and a pretty pedestrian 1.38 WHIP. He is a pretty remarkable +7.5 units for the year after cashing as a +210 dog on the money line against Jacob deGrom and the Mets his last time out. But I don't see it lasting. His KW ratio (for the season) is an unimpressive 19-17. Miami is just 7-12 off a win this season.

San Diego will counter w/ its best pitcher on Tuesday, that being Tyson Ross. The team has gone 7-3 in Ross' 10 starts so far this season, including a perfect 3-0 here at home. His recent string of performances (he has a 1.93 ERA and 1.071 WHIP) has led to trade speculation, but while the Padres still have him, they might as well take advantage. Last time out, Ross allowed just 1 ER (on on a solo HR) and 5 hits in 6 2/3 IP. He also struck out nine batters, nearly half the number we've seen Straily strike out in his five outings this year. Earlier, I talked about the Padres not being favored on the ML very often. Well, they are a perfect 2-0 in 2018 as a home fave in the -125 to -175 range. They're also 16-5 in that same range the L3 seasons! 8* San Diego

10* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): For a Dodgers team that has had no luck (except the bad kind!) in 2018, last night was most definitely a welcome result. Down 4-0 to the Phillies after just two innings, they easily could have chalked things up as "another loss," but instead they came all the way back to win, 5-4, thanks to a three-run eighth. While Dodger Blue is still sitting below .500 (at 25-28), they do continue to own the NL West's best run differential (now +23), which bodes well for their future. If it wasn't for such a poor head to head mark w/ the D'backs, they'd certainly already be ahead of them and first place Colorado looks especially vulnerable given its own -21 run differential. I expect the Dodgers to win tonight and continue to move up the division standings. 

Philadelphia has fallen to third in a competitive NL East that includes surprising Atlanta and stalwart Washington. They've dropped four of six overall and it's been nearly two weeks since they won B2B games. One area in need of improvement is their play on the road. They enter this game having lost 13 of 23 away from home this year (71-114 L3 seasons) and have been outscored by 0.6 rpg. The offense batting a collective .220 in road games certainly doesn't help. Tuesday starter Jake Arrieta has had his own personal struggles as well. He has a 5.12 ERA and 1.551 WHIP in four road starts so far w/ the team going 1-3. He made it through only three innings the last time he started a road game. Save for a no-hitter back in '15, Arrieta has never won here at Dodgers Stadium, coming up short in the other four tries. 

The Dodgers counter here w/ Kenta Maeda, who is on a roll. He's coming off B2B scoreless efforts (14 2/3 IP total) w/ 20 K's and only four total hits allowed. Over the L7 games, LA pitching has held opponents to a .196 batting average and run suppression has generally never been a problem for them here at Chavez Ravine. For the season, they allow just 3.8 rpg here and a .232 BA. Maeda didn't allow a hit through five innings last time out and induced 19 swinging strikes. His strikeout rate this season (11.7 batters per nine innings) would qualify as a career-best and his 12 K's in that last start were a career-best for any individual outing. I'm still a believer in this Dodgers club, moreso than Philly, and am "all in" on them Tuesday. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Houston (9:05 ET): Will we really see a road team win both Game 7's in the Conference Finals? The oddsmakers and public certainly think so as Golden State is a pretty significant favorite here, which is rare for a road team in a Game 7. Of course, that has a lot to do w/ the status of Chris Paul for the Rockets. For the record, as I write this, the Rockets are saying CP3 is "questionable" and will be a "game-time decision." Whether or not he plays, this play stands. Though Game 6 ended up being a disaster for Houston, note that that they did put together a 39-point first quarter w/o Paul. On the road. I'll take the points w/ the (rare) home dog in a Game 7.

The Rockets have now been held under 100 pts in four straight games. Just how unprecedented is that? In the regular season, there was never an instance of them failing to score at least 100 pts in consecutive games! They've averaged just 91 PPG these L4 contests, which is just stunning. But, again, as we saw in that 1Q Saturday night, this team is more than capable of still scoring even w/o Paul. Consider that despite shooting 8 for 12 from three-point range in that 1Q of Game 6, the Rockets finished the game just 31 of 77 from the field overall (40.3%) and would go onto miss 20 of their final 27 attempts from behind the arc. James Harden in particular has really struggled from distance, going a combined 4 of 23 the L2 games. But, now the Rockets are back home and I just don't see any way we don't see across the board improvement offensively here. Four straight games of 40% shooting or worse is pretty unprecedented for any team in this league, especially this one. 

Home teams are now 104-27 SU all-time in Game 7's. That's just under an .800 win percentage. Over the last five years, home teams are 14-4 SU and two of the four wins by the road team came from the LeBron-led Cavs. On the road, the Warriors will not shoot as well here as they did at home in the second half of Game 6. They outscored the Rockets 31-9 in the fourth quarter, which is ridiculous and not going to happen again. Houston has not lost B2B games in the playoffs (going 4-0 ATS off a loss as well). Paul or not, I just see a ton of value w/ a team that was favored over the Warriors the last time here at home. 8* Houston 

10* Over Warriors/Rockets (9:05ET): So it's all come down to this. Golden State clobbered the Chris Paul-less Rockets in Game 6, 115-86, as 12-pt favorites. But, despite that final score, it actually wasn't as easy as it seemed. The Warriors actually trailed by as many as 17 in the first quarter before a second-half barrage was far too much for Houston to overcome. After scoring 39 pts in the 1Q, the Rockets were held to only 47 the rest of the way. That included a disastrous nine-point 4Q. As a result, for a fourth straight game, the Under hit. Obviously, with a NBA Finals berth on the line Monday night, all other storylines seem secondary. But to me, how far the oddsmakers have had to reduce the O/U line is quite notable. I'm on the Over in Game 7 as the total is now almost 20 pts lower than what it was for Game 4! 

The Rockets have now been held under 100 pts in four straight games. Just how unprecedented is that? In the regular season, there was never an instance of them failing to score at least 100 pts in consecutive games! They've averaged just 91 PPG these L4 contests, which is just stunning. But as we saw in that 1Q Saturday night, this team is more than capable of still scoring, Paul or not. Consider that despite shooting 8 for 12 from three-point range in that 1Q of Game 6, the Rockets finished the game just 31 of 77 from the field overall (40.3%) and would go onto miss 20 of their final 27 attempts from behind the arc. James Harden in particular has really struggled from distance, going a combined 4 of 23 the L2 games. But, now the Rockets are back home and I just don't see any way we don't see across the board improvement offensively here. Four straight games of 40% shooting or worse is pretty unprecedented for any team in this league, especially this one.

Golden State did not get off to a good start in Game 6, but turned in a 33-pt 2Q, which was their 1st 30+ pt quarter since the third of Game 4. They went into halftime at just 4 of 18 from three-point range, but went 12 of 20 in the second half. Over the final three quarters, the Dubs scored 93 points, which is what we're used to seeing from them. They won going away despite a subpar (by his standard) effort from Kevin Durant, who was just 6 of 17 from the field. Also, neither team shot well from the FT line. On 36 total attempts, there were 14 misses. 10* Over Warriors/Rockets

10* Over Capitals/Golden Knights (8:05 ET): The phrase "defying the odds" is thrown around a lot in sports, whether it's related to betting or not. But, how ironic is it that the phrase has never been more apropos than it is here w/ the very first pro sports franchise in Las Vegas? The expansion Golden Knights, who started as high as a 500/1 proposition to win the Stanley Cup, have stunned everyone in advancing to the Stanley Cup in their first year of existence. This has to be extremely painful to fans of the Capitals, who are making just their second Finals appearance in 44 years of existence and first in exactly 20 years. But needless to say, very few outside of D.C. will be pulling for the Caps in this series, with the exception of the Vegas' bookmakers.

An irony here is that this is the first series where the Golden Knights come in as a favorite. They have the home ice advantage, which is huge, as they are 6-1 SU at T-Mobile Arena ini the playoffs. This incredible run has been led by goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, who is having a historic postseason w/ a .947 save percentage. The Knights have lost just three times in the playoffs, which is as many times as Washington lost in the last round. However, since losing their first two playoff games, the Capitals have gone 12-5 their L17. Their goalie, Braden Holtby, is having himself quite the postseason as well. He has a .924 save percentage and turned in B2B shutouts to close out the Eastern Conference Finals, stopping all 53 shots, against what was the league's top scoring team in the regular season. 

If you've seen any of my previous plays on Capitals games, particularly the recent ones, then you've read about their power play. They have scored 16 PP goals in 19 games this postseason and are converting at a somewhat ridiculous 28.8% rate, even after going just 1 for 10 the L5 games. Vegas has been very good on the penalty kill (82.5% in playoffs) while their own PP (18.8%) has been nowhere near as good as Washington's. But still, their 27.8 scoring chances per 60 minutes is tops among teams that have played at least 10 playoff games. They have been outshot in the postseason and will be facing a team averaging 3.5 goals. While Unders were more common for both teams in the Conference Finals, I see Game 1 of this series going Over the total. 10* Over Capitals/Golden Knights 

8* LA Angels (1:10 ET): I played the Angels both Friday and Saturday and won both times. Now the run line came in handy in Friday's game as they lost to the Yankees by one run. After winning Saturday, 11-4, they reverted back w/ a 3-1 loss on Sunday. The team is now 1-8 head to head w/ the Red Sox and Yankees in 2018, but 28-16 against everyone else. Fortunately for them, they're now done with the top two from the AL East w/ the exception of a series in Beantown next month. This week is the proverbial "drop in class" as they'll take on the Tigers and Rangers. Up first is a visit to Detroit. Considering LA is still 17-7 on the road and the Tigers aren't a very good team, I'll gladly throw my support behind the visitors in this one. 

LA has pushed back Shohei Ohtani's next start in an effort to decrease the two-way phenom's workload. It would appear as if he's in line to toe the rubber Wednesday. That means he'll DH Monday while Tyler Skaggs gets the starting nod. Skaggs has struck out six or more batters in five straight outings (35 total in 27 2/3 IP) against just eight walks. He's unbeaten on the road (3-0 in five starts) w/ a 1.88 ERA and 1.047 WHIP. Really, Skaggs has pitched better than his TSR (5-5 indicates) as he's allowed 3 ER or less in all but one of his 10 starts. The offense should produce more w/ both Ohtani and Mike Trout in the lineup today. If the former is getting the start Weds, then he'll be given off Tuesday as per usual. The latter had a career night at the plate Saturday, going 5 for 5 w/ four extra base hits. 

Detroit is off the rare winning weekend, but keep in mind they were playing the White Sox. I played against them Saturday when they lost 8-4. The Tigers have been a winning proposition here at Comerica Park so far this season, but I'm not convinced that will last. Matt Boyd gets the baseball Monday and while he's pitched well here (0.945 WHIP in four starts), his last outing (was on the road) was certainly an interesting one. It lasted just four innings and while he allowed just one hit, he actually gave up two runs as he had control issues (four walks). On top of that, he didn't strike a single batter out. The Angels are the better team here and I expect them to come in and show that Monday afternoon. 8* LA Angels

10* Houston (1:05 ET): The Astros may have had to settle for a split in Cleveland over the weekend (4-game series), including a 14-inning loss on a Sunday. But there's no denying that the defending World Series Champs are a very good team. That's confirmed by a MLB-best +122 run differential (45 runs better than #2 team), which says their 34-20 record should be even better (run differential of a 42-12 team). Armed w/ revenge and perhaps the top pitcher in baseball so far in '18, I like them Monday afternoon at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees took three of four from the 'Stros to start the month, including a pair of shutouts, but I see a very different result taking place in this series opener. 

Let's talk a bit about Verlander, shall we? With 10 quality starts in 11 tries, he leads all of MLB in both ERA (1.08) and WHIP (0.71). So its pretty stunning his team start record is only 7-4, which works out to money-losing proposition (-2.5 units). It's only a matter of time before that works itself out. Verlander has allowed more than 2 ER in only one start and that was back on April 3rd. Since then, he's allowed 1 or 0 ER in eight of nine starts, including all five here in May! He did pitch in the previous series vs. the Yankees and was absolutely dominant. He tossed eight scoreless innings of three-hit ball w/ 14 strikeouts! Unfortunately, the bullpen and offense betrayed him in what ended up being a 4-0 loss. After tossing a complete game, five-hit shutout on 5.16 vs. the Angels, Verlander closed north of -300 on the money line in his last start and responded in kind by allowing just one run on three hits. The Astros won (over the Giants) 3-1. 

After starting the season 26-10, the Yankees have gone just 7-6 the L13 games. They did take two of three from the Angels over the weekend, doing Houston a favor in the process, but were actually outscored in the series. That's thanks to losing the middle game, 11-4. (Both wins, 2-1 on Friday and 3-1 Sunday, were quite low-scoring). Having Domingo German start opposite Verlander seems like the definition of a mismatch. German has allowed 6 ER in B2B outings. That's more than Verlander has allowed this season in his 11 starts! The Astros are 18-9 on the road this season, outscoring opponents by more than a 2:1 margin. I realize that they were able to beat up on a beleaguered Indians bullpen in the last series, but w/ Verlander on the bump today, they shouldn't need much offense. The best team in baseball w/ perhaps the best pitcher in baseball sounds like a good bet to me! The number of times from here on out that we can get Verlander at this price will be few and far between, if non-existent. 10* Houston

analysis soon

6* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): The Cubs lost to the Giants last night, so I'm basically willing to back them at any decent price Sunday night and fortunately the oddsmakers are giving us one. Despite currently languishing in fourth place in the crowded NL Central, the Cubs actually own the division's best run differential (+65) - by a pretty wide margin. In fact, that's the best run differential in the entire National League! Meanwhile, the Giants might only be two games below .500, but they've been outscored by 39 runs on the season. So what we have here is one of baseball's biggest underachievers and overachievers, in terms of record vs. scoring differential, facing off. In such instances, I'll almost always side w/ the team that has the better run differential. I just can't see the Cubs dropping two in a row here at Wrigley to the Giants.

Yu Darvish was set to start this game for the Cubbies, but he's back on the DL w/ right triceps tendinitis. Darvish signed a big deal in the offeseason, but there might already be some "buyer's remorse" here given he's only 1-3 w/ a 4.95 ERA. So the fact he'll be absent from the mound tonight really does not concern me. Instead, Tyler Chatwood moves up a day to take the spot in the rotation. Chatwood's team start record is only 3-6 and he has a 1.620 WHIP, but he figures to pitch better here than he did vs. Cleveland on Tuesday where he lasted only 2 2/3 innings. Chatwood has largely been immune to the home run ball, giving up only two all season, and the Giants are hardly the most fearsome offense in the game. In fact, on the road this season, they are averaging just 3.2 runs per game. In 16 career starts, Chatwood has a 2.84 ERA vs. the Giants

The win yday snapped a three-game skid for San Francisco where they had scored all of five runs. They twice rallied from deficits, 2-0 and 3-2, to get the win. But I don't see them following that up w/ another win as Ty Blach is starting and he's not been good at all this season as is evident by a 7.11 ERA and 1.896 WHIP his L3 starts. He's failed to make it out of the fifth inning in any of those three starts, yet has still given up 12 runs. Shockingly though, the team is 5-1 his L6 starts. The Giants are still just 11-17 on the road though, getting outscored by 1.5 runs per game. 6* Chi Cubs

8* Run Line NY Mets (2:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Mets at +1.5. After taking the opener of this four-game series, the Metropolitans have lost two in a row. They fell by one run (in extra innings) on Friday and then were absolutely bludgeoned in a 17-6 defeat yesterday. The former is a result that work just fine for us, given our use of the RL here, and the latter sets us up w/ the requisite value for being able to use the RL at a decent price. I remain unsold on Milwaukee, who does lead the NL Central at 33-20, but they've also been "propped up" by a 13-5 record in one-run games and they're 4-1 in extra innings. Mets do no worse than a one-run loss here.

Believe it or not, but the Mets actually led 3-0 yday after the top of the first. But the Brew Crew quickly answered w/ three runs of their own. Note that the Mets did score again in both the second and third innings, only to again allow Milwaukee to tie things up (at 5-5) in the bottom of the third. It was a 7-6 game heading into the bottom half of the fifth when the home team tacked three more runs on the board. A seven-run eighth wasn't needed but put the "exclamation point" on the victory. It was the Brewers' eighth win in the L10 games as they tied the record for most runs scored in a game at Miller Park. It was also their largest margin of victory this season. 

For all that, Milwaukee is probably feeling pretty good about itself coming into today's series finale. They have their most consistent pitcher, Jhoulys Chacin, on the mound as well. However, Chacin is just 2-5 lifetime vs. NY w/ a 5.76 ERA. He also did have four walks in his last start. Interesting is that even following yday's offensive outburst, the Brewers are still only basically dead even in terms of runs scored vs. allowed here at home. The Mets remain a winning proposition on the road this year (13-10) and are 3-1 after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. Though he's had a couple of rough outings this month (both at home), the Mets' Zack Wheeler is off a strong showing his last time out where he allowed just three runs (only 1 earned) and had nine strikeouts. Don't blame him for losing that one. Wheeler has also pitched better on the road this season w/ a 3-1 TSR, 3.27 ERA and 1.182 WHIP. 8* Run Line NY Mets (+1.5)

10* Over Rockets/Warriors (9:05 ET): It sure is shocking to see two straight Rockets-Warriors games where the winner wasn't even required to score 100 points. In fact, Houston has averaged just 92.7 points over the L3 games! Not only is this the first time all season that they've been held below 100 pts in three consecutive games, it's the first time they've been held below 100 in B2B games. Now, the big story for Game 6 is going to be the absence of Chris Paul. This has made the Rockets big underdogs in a spot Golden State already had to win to stay alive. But even w/o Paul, look for Houston's offense to increase tonight. I'll say the same for a Warriors team that has also been held below 100 pts in B2B games, a rarity in its own right. I'm on the Over.

Just as rare as these two teams getting held below the century mark in consecutive games is the fact the Dubs have lost B2B games. When at (or close to) full strength, that simply does not happen. Now, I know Andre Iguodala has been out the last two games and his absence was a big reason why I took the Rockets in both of those games (went 2-0 ATS!). He's listed as questionable for tonight, but as HC Steve Kerr put it, "he's gotten incrementally better each day." Golden State is 6-3 Over this season coming off three or more consecutive Unders (Under is 7-1 their L8 games). When off a SU loss, they average 117.3 PPG. When off B2B losses (has happened only five times all season, including one three-game losing streak), they have scored no fewer than 107 in every game in that situation and are averaging 114.8 PPG.  Bottom line is they'll "get theirs" tonight. 

With Paul out, expect plenty of Harden in this game for the Rockets. Though I ultimately expect this series to go to a seventh game, a Harden-led offense is still plenty to "write home about" obviously. Consider that the team went 15-9 SU w/o Paul in the regular season. Now none of those games were against the Warriors, but the point still stands that I can't see this offense being held under 100 pts for a fourth straight time. I should also mention just how much this O/U line has dropped from the first four games. It's a near 15-point drop from Game 4, which is more than "pretty substantial" and will be one of the lowest totals for either team all season. There's plenty of value to be had here. 10* Over Rockets/Warriors

8* Run Line LA Angels (7:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Angels at +1.5. Doing this worked out well last night as the Angels dropped the game, 2-1, thereby coming through for us on the RL. Problem is that they're still winless this season in four tries against the Yankees, thus our theme of revenge in tonight's three-pack continues. The Angels may be 0-7 against the Red Sox and Yankees this season, but they're 28-16 against everyone else and remain a strong value getting the additional 1.5 runs, especially at this price. Look for them again to do no worse than a one-run defeat tonight.

Last night saw the Angels have to contend w/ Luis Severino, who added to his MLB best net units (now +9.0) by leading his team to another victory. They could manage just the one run off Severino on Friday, but still were in solid position to win most of the way, as late as the eighth inning when Shohei Ohtani came to bat w/ a chance to tie. But it simply wasn't to be. But the good news here is that the Halos get to face Sonny Gray tonight rather than Severino. Though Gray pitched well his last time out, that came against the lousy Royals and he still has a 5.48 ERA and 1.630 WHIP after nine starts. His numbers are even worse here at Yankee Stadium (6.48, 1.76) and the Angels still have the best road record in all of MLB at 16-6.

The Angels will send Jamie Barria out to the bump tonight and that's a good thing. Through five starts, Barria has a 2.13 ERA and 1.026 WHIP and he's been at his best on the road where his ERA/WHIP are 0.87 and 0.968 respectively. He's yet to allow more than 2 ER in any start and did not face the Yankees in the prior series. He's allowed just six runs in 25 1/3 IP and last time out held Houston to just one run on four hits in 7 1/3. He had seven strikeouts and no walks and gave his team a chance (where they ultimately came up short) against Gerrit Cole. That game came all the way back on 5.15, so the rookie is well-rested here and in good position to help his team break through for the first time against the Yanks. 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5)

8* Run Line Chi White Sox (4:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the White Sox at +1.5. The White Sox appeared poised to start this series out w/ a win as they quickly jumped out to a 2-0 lead last night and led 4-2 heading into the bottom of the eighth. But that's when their bullpen betrayed them, giving up three runs in that half inning, resulting in a 5-4 loss. They're now 0-4 head to head w/ the Tigers in 2018. The revenge angle is still in play (boy, will today's three-pack resemble last night's) and because of that I'm back the road team again in this one. Only this time it's getting the additional 1.5 runs, a situation which would have resulted in a win last night. 

The White Sox have the fewest number of wins in all of baseball (15) and a pitcher that has an 0-4 team start record (w/ a 7.11 ERA and 1.684 WHIP) going tonight. That may not sound all that promising, but it's not like the Tigers are any "great shakes." The team from the Motor City came into this series as losers of five of their last six. Now they've won B2B games, but that doesn't bode too well for them considering win streaks of three or more have been rare this year. There's been only three of them previously, the longest at four straight. Obviously, one was the prior sweep of the White Sox. The other included a sweep of another last place team, Baltimore. The team is still averaging only 2.7 runs over its last seven games while batting a collective .216.

The starter for the White Sox here is Hector Santiago. While his numbers are poor; they're largely skewed by one awful start against Minnesota earlier this month. In the other three, he's allowed 3 ER or less everytime. All three of those have resulted in one-run losses, again, a result that would be just fine given how we're playing this one. Allowing three solo home runs his last time out was simply a tough break as those were the only runs he gave up in the contest. Santiago will be opposed here by Francisco Liriano, who is off a shockingly good showing at Seattle on Sunday where he went eight innings and gave up only one hit. But I wouldn't look for a repeat of that from a starter who has a 4.64 ERA and 1.406 WHIP at home this year (4 starts). I won't be backing Chicago much this season, but I will here until they get a win over this division rival. You just don't see a team sweep another twice in a row very often, especially if it's division rivals. 8* Run Line Chi White Sox (+1.5)

10* Oakland (4:05 ET): Arizona snapped what had been an ugly seven-game slide w/ a 7-1 win in Oakland last night. But I don't look for the good times to last here for the D'backs as their up against Daniel Mengden Saturday afternoon and a ML underdog for good reason. Mengden's 4-4 record (6-4 TSR) is in no way indicative of the way he's pitched for the A's as he comes into this game carrying a 3.30 ERA and 1.081 WHIP. He's been even sharper of late w/ a 1.37 ERA and 0.864 WHIP. During their losing streak, Arizona wasn't scoring many runs (just 12 total!), so this would certainly appear to be a bad matchup for them on paper. Not even the addition of the designated hitter to their lineup can save them here.

The D'backs are a team I expected to regress in 2018. I think that's a pretty logical take considering last year saw them jump from 69 wins (in '16) to 93 and a surprising Wild Card berth. In no way am I intimating that they'll drop to 2016 levels, but certainly they won't be hitting last season's win total either. Now, I recognize I looked pretty foolish early on as they were 20-8 at the end of April. But then came what we'll call a rather huge "market correction." Not only had the club dropped seven in a row going into yday; they'd lost 13 of 14 overall! They scored two runs or fewer in 11 of those 14 games, including the lone win (2-1 over Milwaukee on 5.15). They've now fallen out of first place in the NL West as they currently trail the Rockies by one-half game. 

Though the offense was able to "break out" last night, I don't see that happening again today against Mengden, who has given up 2 ER or fewer in six of his last seven outings. He's off arguably his best; having thrown seven scoreless innings of two-hit ball at Toronto Sunday. While his strikeout numbers are far from dominant, the bottom line is he's allowed just four runs this month, in 24 2/3 IP. I don't see Clay Buchholz, who is starting for just the second time this year, matching him. Buchholz made his season debut on Sunday and while he pitched well (allowed just one run on two hits), the D'backs still lost, wasting that effort. Buchholz has never pitched well here in Oakland (9.58 ERA in three career starts) and remains a huge question mark having gone 13 months in between big-league starts. 10* Oakland

8* St. Louis (4:05 ET): The Cardinals dropped to 0-4 head to head w/ the Pirates this season as they had a poor showing last night here at PNC Park, losing 8-1. In a crowded NL Central field (absent Cincinnati), such a poor head to head mark against any division rival could come back to haunt you. St. Louis is currently fourth out of the four-team logjam, but just four games out of first place. They're only one game back of the second place Pirates, despite the 0-4 record, so they're lucky there. I can't see the Cards getting swept again by the Bucs this weekend, so I'm back on them today as the revenge angle continues to be prevalent. 

Overall, the Cardinals have now dropped three in a row. Prior to last night's series opener, they'd embarrassingly dropped two at home to the lowly Royals. This is the third three-game skid for the Cards so far in 2018. The good news is that they have yet to lose four in a row. Over the L3 seasons, they are 23-8 when on a losing streak of three or more games. Charged w/ being the "stopper" here is Jack Flaherty, who has pitched well for them of late. Flaherty was flat out dominant in his last start, striking out 13 over 7 2/3 innings and giving up just one run on two hits against a good Phillies team. Flaherty has allowed 1 ER in three of his four starts this year. Ironically, the one he did not was against Pittsburgh, but even then, he gave up only three. Flaherty's WHIP over his L3 starts is an impressive 0.927. 

Now runs may be tough to come by for the Redbirds as well considering they're up against Trevor Williams, who has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 13 of his last 15 starts here at home (dating back to last season). Williams did outduel Flaherty last month, giving up just two runs over six innings. But I don't see that result repeating itself here as I'm simply not a believer in this Bucs team long-term. They'd lost five of six coming into this series w/ those games coming against two last place teams: San Diego and Cincinnati. All were here at home as well. St. Louis is too good (and too proud) to be swept for a second time by the Pirates. 8* St. Louis

8* Seattle (10:10 ET): While I remain unsold on the Mariners long-term (too many one-run victories lately), it's tough NOT to like them here, or any time when James Paxton is starting, for that matter. Despite being only 3-1 (6-4 TSR), Paxton has certainly been one of baseball's best pitchers in 2018 w/ 1.021 WHIP and two complete game shutouts to his credit, one of them a no-hitter back on 5.8 @ Toronto. He again went the distance his last time out, this time allowing just three hits in a 7-2 win over the Tigers. Tonight, he faces a Twins team that is just 26th in runs scored. Outside the division, AL Central teams are a woeful 54-98 so far (.355 win percentage) and I just can't see Minnesota beating Seattle for a second time w/ Paxton starting. 

These teams have already met three times before, all in the Twin Cities. Two of those games were played in early April, then a rainout was made up on 5.14. Back in one of the early April games, the Twins beat the M's w/ Paxton on the hill. Paxton went only five innings and allowed two runs in a no-decision. (Twins won 4-2 in a very cold home opener). Paxton has made eight starts since and seven of them have been quality, including each of the last five. Over those five consecutive quality outings, he's allowed just seven runs total in 37 IP. He has a ridiculous 45 strikeouts during that time as well. He's been particularly great at home where his WHIP is 0.975. He won't have to worry about the cold weather this time around and still has a 2.91 ERA in four career starts vs. Minnesota. 

Facing a pitcher who has a 0.542 (which Paxton does) over his L3 starts is problematic enough for a team. That's what the Twins are dealing w/ here and they're just 2-5 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 on the ML this season (29-46 L3 seasons in that range). They send Fernando Romero to the bump on Friday and while he's unbeaten (2-0) in four starts (2-2 TSR though), he's off his weakest effort to date as he gave up four runs in five innings against Milwaukee on Sunday. The Twins lost that game, 5-4, and while they "recovered" to win their next three, they're off a home loss here to Detroit on Wednesday. Playing after an off-day, the team is only 2-5 this season, so I don't think the rest advantage matters here. Seattle had won five in a row (four by one-run) before losing by one-run yday afternoon in Oakland. Paxton leads them to victory at home tonight. 8* Seattle

8* Chi White Sox (7:10 ET): As most though it would be, the American League Central is very bad this year. Despite being only a .500 team entering Friday, Cleveland figures to run away w/ the division as I don't believe any of the other four teams figure to finish w/ a wining record at season's end. Collectively, the AL Central has a win percentage of .355 outside the division (54-98 overall) and the last place White Sox have been the biggest "offenders" w/ a 9-23 mark in such games. They were also swept at home by the Tigers very early on in the season and tonight have their shot at avenging that. The theme of this three-pack has been taking teams looking to avenge a prior sweep and I won't deviate from this game plan here!

The White Sox have the fewest number of wins in all of baseball (15), but have played better of late as they've won five of their last eight, even after a loss yday. That loss resulted in four-game split w/ fellow cellar-dwellars Baltimore, that coming after taking three of four from the AL's other last place team, Texas. It's not much of a step up in class facing the Tigers, who ended an ugly five-game losing streak w/ a win at Minnesota on Wednesday. The last time Detroit scored more than four runs in a game was 5.15 vs. Cleveland. That bodes well for Chicago starter Reynaldo Lopez, who didn't allow any runs in his last start. He went eight innings against the Rangers on 5.20, allowing only two hits. It was the seventh time in nine starts this season that Lopez allowed 2 ER or fewer. So, he's certainly deserving of better than a 3-6 team start record. Sure enough, he has a 2.98 ERA and 1.160 WHIP. 

Lopez has lost only three decisions and one of them was in that previous series vs. Detroit. But in his start there, he allowed only an unearned run in 7 IP. Note that he was priced at -170 on the ML for that matchup, so it's solid value on him in the revenge spot. Again, he'll be matched up against Michael Fiers, who threw six innings of shutout ball in that first meeting. But Fiers has been quite inconsistent so far this season, including his last time out where he allowed four runs, which is far too many when facing James Paxton. Despite owning the better TSR, Fiers has an ERA that's a full point and a half higher than Lopez and his WHIP is higher as well. While the Tigers are a respectable 14-11 in day games this season, they are only 7-17 at night. Make it 7-18. 8* Chi White Sox

8* Run Line LA Angels (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Angels at +1.5. I've written about this in previous discussions about the Angels, but they've really struggled when taking on the American League's top teams. Against Boston, Houston and the Yankees, they're a combined 3-9 w/ all three wins coming against the Astros. They're 25-13 against "everyone else." They were swept by both the Red Sox and Yankees back in April. They get a chance to avenge the latter tonight and even though they are rather massive underdogs on the money line, I see them having a shot to pull it off. Certainly, they'll do no worse than a one-run defeat here. Take the +1.5. 

Now I am by no means attempting to minimize the accomplishments of Yanks' starter Luis Severino. Two years removed from an 0-8 record as a starter, Severino is now the most profitable pitcher to bet on (so far) here in 2018. He's got a 9-1 team start record (+8.0 units) and absolutely deserves it, given a corresponding 2.35 ERA and 0.969 WHIP. He's had only one non-quality start and that was the loss in Boston back on April 10th. He did face the Angels in the previous series and held them to three runs over seven innings. However, that was still only a one-run victory as the Yankees needed runs in the 9th and 10th innings to come out ahead. In fact, two of the Yankees' wins in that three game sweep last month were of the one-run variety. We can live w/ that result here.

The Yankees may have scored 10 or more runs in three of the last four games, but for just the second time in the last month, they're coming off B2B losses. Those came at Texas of all places. A big reason I feel that the Angels are a tremendous value here is their 16-5 road record is the best in baseball and they are averaging an impressive 5.9 runs per game. Shohei Ohtani will no longer be starting in this series, but he'll still hit and he's coming off a strong game yday where he had two doubles, leading an 8-1 win at Toronto. Andrew Heaney will be the one starting Friday and getting hit for four unearned runs his last time out snapped a string of four consecutive quality starts. He's allowed five or less hits in five straight starts, giving up just 4 ER total. Note that the Yankees are just 5-5 the L10 games after going 17-1 their previous 18. It makes sense that they're cooling off following such a ridiculous run and that cooling off period should extend into this weekend. 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5)

8* St. Louis (7:05 ET): Taking the woeful Reds out of the equation, the NL Central may be shaping up as baseball's toughest division in 2018. Entering the weekend, the two clubs here find themselves involved in a four-team race where everyone is separated by just 3.5 games. Milwaukee currently has the lead, but I'm not really buying into them as their record is being propped up by a somewhat fortunate 12-5 mark in one-run games. For my money, the Cubs are probably the division's best (confirmed by a +62 run differential?). That brings us to the two teams in question here, St. Louis and Pittsburgh. The Cardinals enter in off B2B disappointing losses to Kansas City (had yday off) while the Bucs have lost five of six, all of the setbacks coming at the hands of San Diego or Cincinnati at home, no less. The Cards have revenge here for getting swept here at PNC Park back in April and I'm on them in the series opener. 

Losing twice in a row to Kansas City at home is pretty unforgiveable, if you're St. Louis, or really any other team for that matter. The Cards didn't score much in either game (just three runs total) and lost the series finale in extra innings Wednesday. They're just 4-7 the L11 games, but I look for them to turn it around here as they give John Gant the baseball. Gant is off a strong showing w/ a career-best seven strikeouts (in just 4 1/3 innings). In the rotation only due to an injury to Adam Wainwright, Gant is -sadly - still looking for his 1st win (as a starter) since 2016. He got a no decision his last time out and the offense failed to score for him in his first outing. Tonight though, he faces a Pittsburgh offense that has scored three runs or less in five of the last 10 games and topped five just once during that same span.

The Pirates counter w/ Joe Musgrove, who is making his '18 debut. He was considered the prize in the haul acquired for Gerrit Cole in the trade w/ Houston. Truthfully, he wasn't all that great w/ the Astros last season as he finished up in the bullpen (after failing as a starter) and went 7-8 w/ a 4.77 ERA. The Pirates' rotation will be relying on him from here on out, which perhaps "speaks volumes." Musgrove started in four different places in Pittsburgh's minor league system while working his way back. But even though the Redbirds struggled at the plate the L2 games, they'll present Musgrove w/ a greater challenge than he's faced in a while. I like the revenge angle and the visitors here. 8* St. Louis

10* Over Warriors/Rockets (9:05 ET): While the Eastern Conference Finals is being controlled by homecourt advantage, over in the West, the zig-zag theory has held firm as the loser of the previous game has stormed back to win each of the last three games. It was Houston's turn in Game 4 as they pulled the upset in Oakland, 95-92 as nine-point underdogs. I'm proud to say that I was on the dog there as the Rockets essentially "saved" their season following an embarrassing 45-point loss in Game 3 just two nights earlier. The zig-zag theory indicates tonight would be the Warriors' time to shine, however, the series has now shifted back to Houston. Looking at tonight's total, it's significantly lower than any previous O/U line in the series and certainly lower than what it was for any of the regular season matchups. I'm on the Over in Game 5.

We're certainly not accustomed to seeing final scores in the 90's from either the Warriors or Rockets, so the fact that Tuesday's game ended up 95-92 is definitely quite shocking. These are, after all, the two top offensive teams in the league (both in efficiency and points per game). The fact that the Rockets averaged just 90 PPG in the two games at Golden State and were still able to come away w/ a split should actually have them feeling quite well about themselves. Because they average 113.9 points per game at home and should be considered a virtual lock to improve upon the shooting of the last two games, each of which saw them shoot just 39 percent from the floor. In particular, we should see them improve from three-point range where they were just 23 of 72 the L2 games. In the two home games in this series, Houston scored 106 and 127 pts.

Golden State is obviously no slouch on offense either. They shot better than 50% each of the first three games of the series before dipping down to 39% themselves in Game 4. This is a team that averages 113.0 PPG on the year w/ almost no dip on the road. Coming off an outright loss as a favorite, they are 13-8 Over this season. Their 14 assists in Gm 4 marked a series low and - shockingly - their assist percentage in the series is below that of the Rockets. That should start to change. Only Kevin Durant and Steph Curry scored more than 11 pts Tuesday and that's not likely to be the case again tonight. Both teams having two sub-20 pt quarters in Game 4 is something that certainly isn't likely to repeat itself again here. I'm taking advantage of this "low" number. 10* Over Warriors/Rockets

8* Houston (9:05 ET): While the Eastern Conference Finals is being controlled by homecourt advantage, over in the West, the zig-zag theory has held firm as the loser of the previous game has stormed back to win each of the last three games. It was Houston's turn in Game 4 as they pulled the upset in Oakland, 95-92 as nine-point underdogs. I'm proud to say that I was on the dog there as the Rockets essentially "saved" their season following an embarrassing 45-point loss in Game 3 just two nights earlier. The zig-zag theory indicates tonight would be the Warriors' time to shine, however, the series has now shifted back to Houston. I've actually been on the Rockets in every game in the series, feeling that they're undervalued, and I'm not wavering from that viewpoint here in a spot where the "world" figures to be on Golden State.

We're certainly not accustomed to seeing final scores in the 90's from either the Warriors or Rockets, so the fact that Tuesday's game ended up 95-92 is definitely quite shocking. These are, after all, the two top offensive teams in the league (both in efficiency and points per game). The fact that the Rockets averaged just 90 PPG in the two games at Golden State and were still able to come away w/ a split should actually have them feeling quite well about themselves. Because they average 113.9 points per game at home and should be considered a virtual lock to improve upon the shooting of the last two games, each of which saw them shoot just 39 percent from the floor. In particular, we should see them improve from three-point range where they were just 23 of 72 the L2 games. In the two home games in this series, Houston scored 106 and 127 pts.

Now Golden State is going to improve upon its own 39% shooting from Game 4 as well. They shot better than 50% from the floor in each of the first three games. But I'm not sure they get to that level here. Even if they do, they still have to win, which is not easy to do for the road team in Houston. The Rockets are 40-9 SU at home this year, outscoring opponents by 9.2 PPG. They are also 52-14 SU this year when the trio of James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capella take the floor together. Consider that Golden State jumped out to a 12-0 lead in Game 4, led by 12 again in the fourth quarter and still lost. And that was at home! Those advantages won't be present here in Houston. While both may end up playing, Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala (the latter being questionable) are not 100% and that has an impact on a shortened Warriors' rotation that really can't play its bigs due to the Rockets' "small-ball" lineups. 8* Houston

8* Run Line Cleveland (6:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Indians at +1.5. It's a revenge spot for the Tribe, and specifically starter Mike Clevinger, who came out on the losing end to the Astros and Charlie Morton last Saturday. The same two starters face off again here as the teams will play four more against one another this weekend after the Astros won two of three in their home park last weekend. The "immediate revenge" situation is one of my favorites in MLB handicapping as you take the losing starter from the first meeting, figuring he (and the team) will be highly motivated. Add in the fact Cleveland is at home here and we can get an additional 1.5 runs to work with (at a decent price) and it's a "no-brainer" to me.

Houston's pitching staff has easily been baseball's best in 2018, but Cleveland is one of the few teams w/ the capability of matching them. Case in point, the Indians were able to win a game yday in Chicago despite scoring only one run. In fact, they held the Cubs to just one run total in two games at Wrigley. So is the fact they've allowed just 12 runs over the last six games. Clevinger has given up 3 ER or fewer in seven of his nine starts this season and that includes last week vs. Houston where he allowed three in 6 1/3 IP. Four walks (season-worst) did burn him. But it was also Clevinger's first loss of '18 after starting 3-0 w/ a 2.70 ERA. Be careful about criticizing Cleveland's .500 record as they've outscored opponents by 28 runs over the course of the season.

Houston has the best run differential in all of baseball (+110) and has won three straight after their own sweep of a NL opponent (Giants). Morton is 6-0 (6-3 TSR) w/ a 1.94 ERA and 0.934, which almost seems unfair given the other names in this rotation (Keuchel, Cole, Verlander). But winning by multiple runs in Cleveland should prove tricky for the Astros. The Indians are averaging a strong 5.8 runs per game at Progressive Field and aren't priced this way too often. Morton has also only had to make two road starts so far and his last one (5.5 vs. Arizona) was easily his weakest of the season as he finished w/ more walks than strikeouts and lasted just five innings. That was in a NL park as well w/ no DH. The Indians do no worse than a one-run loss in this revenge spot. 8* Run Line Cleveland (+1.5)

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): By all rights, the Dodgers should be dead and buried right now. A myrid of injuries (among other issues) have them currently six games below .500 and they're also down an unspeakable 23.8 units at the betting window. Yet, the rest of the NL West is doing a "good job" of keeping the Dodgers alive. Dave Roberts' ballclub actually owns the best run differential in the division following a win over the Rockies last night. They're +13 for the year, which is an interesting contrast to their opponents, who are in first place (26-23), but -25. The fact that LA is only 4.5 games back of the division lead is pretty incredible and given what those respective run differentials say about the individual teams' records, I'll call for the Dodgers to win again Wednesday!

There were signs of life from the Dodgers over the weekend when they went to D.C. and swept the Nationals. But upon returning home Monday, they lost to the Rockies, 2-1. It was the kind of frustrating setback that's all too indicative of the season at Chavez Ravine w/ the Dodgers losing despite giving up only three hits. But credit them for bouncing back yday. I've written about this extensively before, but the Rockies are a franchise that has been largely defined by its home park through their history. This year has seen them "step up" on the road w/ a 19-12 record (most road wins in MLB), but I find it interesting that they've barely outscored opponents in those games. The offense, and this has always been the case throughout the history of the franchise, has generally been lifeless outside of Coors Field, averaging just 3.8 rpg w/ a collective batting average of .217.

Dodger pitching has held opponents to a .175 BA over its L7 games and I like starter Kenta Maeda's chances here tonight. He's been inconsistent, but is coming off an absolute gem as he tossed eight scoreless innings of two-hit ball at Miami last week. Maeda has pitched well in the past vs. Colorado, holding them to a .200 BA in seven career starts w/ a 36-5 KW ratio. He's 4-2 w/ a 2.56 ERA. Maeda will be opposed tonight by Kyle Freeland, who has been perfect so far in May w/ a 3-0 record, 1.35 ERA and 0.950 WHIP. But I sense a "slip up" is forthcoming as he's 1-2 w/ a 4.26 ERA in five career starts vs. Los Angeles. Simply put, the Rockies are not as good as their record while the Dodgers are better than theirs. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Cleveland (8:35 ET): Well, after seemingly being written off after the first two games, the Cavs have stormed back to tie the Eastern Conference Finals at two games apiece. Now we head back to Boston for Game 5 where the Celtics have not lost the entire postseason. They're a perfect 9-0, both SU and ATS, here at TD North Bank Garden w/ the vast majority of the wins coming by double digits. Both Games 1 and 2 of this series were decided by DD as the Celtics won by 25 and 13 pts. But there's probably something to the fact that Cleveland has held a double digit lead in each of the last three games, largely holding it for the majority of the previous two. I'm willing to put my money w/ LeBron James as it would appear the lack of their own "go-to" option is finally starting to catch up w/ Boston. 

After shooting 51% from the floor in Game 1, the Celtics have not shot the ball well the rest of the series. They're at just over 41% for the last three games and that includes a 25 of 81 mark from three-point range. Defensively, Cleveland has largely been a lot better in the playoffs than they were in the regular season (when they ranked a woeful 28th in efficiency). For the entire postseason, the Cavs are allowing just 101.7 PPG, which is a lower average than the defensive-minded Celtics! Now Boston's scoring typically goes up here at home. It would be easy to say that they'll regain lost form here in Game 5. But Cleveland is actually 9-5 SU here in TD North Bank Arena in this second era of LeBron. It was easy to forget after the first two games, but the Celtics don't have their best player (Kyrie Irving) and I'm not sure who they can count on - consistently - to counteract James. 

LeBron is the difference maker here as he turned in yet another 40+ pt effort in Game 4 (44 to be exact), albeit one w/ "only" five rebounds and three assists. He is averaging 33.7 PPG in the playoffs. Though they led wire to wire in Game 4, the Cavs had a lot of miscues (which can easily be corrected) that allowed that game to stay closer than it should have been. Namely turnovers, seven of them coming from LeBron. He'll need some help from the supporting cast obviously, but I sense a big game coming from James tonight as for the first time in the series, we'll see the road team get a win. 10* Cleveland

10* Washington (8:05 ET): After the road team won each of the first four games of this best of seven series, "order has been restored" w/ the home team winning the last two. So here we are in Game 7 in Tampa Bay Wednesday. Though winning both Games 1 and 2 here, one could argue that Game 6 was the Caps' strongest performance of the series to date. They shut the Lightning out, 3-0, holding them to just 24 shots on goal. The Capitals have now outshot the Lightning in all six games in the series, which certainly seems like it should mean SOMETHING. Unlike the NBA, road teams winning a Game 7 in the NHL playoffs happens w/ relatively frequency (We just saw it last round w/ Winnipeg beating Nashville). I'm going to "buck convention" here and take the road dog.

The respective power plays are (finally) starting to slow down here. Tampa Bay scored w/ the man advantage in nine straight games going into Game 5. But they are 0 for 3 the L2 games. Their number of chances have greatly been reduced over the L3 games as well (just five PP's total). Still, the Lightning power play is 6 for 17 in the series. That's just over 35%, which (like I've said before) is an unsustainable rate. Consider that TB was 3rd in the league on the PP during the regular season, but at 23.9%. Now you can say something similar for Washington's power play as well. They're at nearly 30 percent in the playoffs despite being just 2 for 11 the L5 games. But if there's one "X-factor" here, it's that the Lightning penalty kill was a major liability in the regular season (ranked 27th). The Caps did score on their lone PP chance in Game 6.

Tuesday actually was Braden Holtby's first shutout of the entire season! The Caps' goalie is just 2-4 SU all-time in Game 7's, but has a respectable .923 save percentage in those games. Counterpart Andrei Vasilevskiy played well in Game 6 also, stopping 31 of 33 shots (Caps scored on an empty net late). But his level of play has come down a bit in this series and his save percentage at home for the season is a surprisingly low .908. The fact he's facing a higher number of shots than Holtby essentially nullifies his higher save percentage. I should point out that the Lightning are not only being outshot in this series, they're being outshot for the entire postseason and only +0.4 goals per game. Washington is outshooting its opposition in the playoffs and also +0.8 gpg. Being the road team here won't bother the Caps either; they've won 14 of their last 17 road games and have closed out each of their first two series on the road. 10* Washington 

10* Baltimore (8:10 ET): Even by the American League's generally low standards, these two teams are pretty lousy. Only five A.L. teams are currently above .500, a stark contrast to the N.L., and these two also-rans happen to reside near the bottom w/ the fewest and second fewest number of wins in all of baseball. Chicago has the fewest (14), but avoids the dubious distinction of being a last place team thanks to Kansas City, who has two more losses. Meanwhile, Baltimore is 15-33 including a dreadful 5-20 away from Camden Yards. However, they are favored on the ML here, which should tell you all you "need to know" about the sorry state of the White Sox. Thus far in the series, the teams have exchange 3-2 victories, but I'll call for the Orioles to win big in the rubber match. 

There have been just four instances all year of the O's winning B2B games. They failed to make it five last night when they gave up three runs in the bottom of the eighth. Shame on the bullpen for wasting a perfectly fine start from Kevin Gausman, who tossed 6 1/3 scoreless innings and matched a career-best w/ 10 K's. Since a 17-run outburst against Tampa Bay back on 5.13, Baltimore has managed just 18 runs total in its last seven games. Six of those have seen them get held to three runs or fewer. But I'll call for them to break out of the slump here tonight against Dylan Covey, the White Sox starter who has never won in the big leagues in 14 tries. He's 0-8 lifetime, w/ a 7.58 ERA, and this is just his second start of 2018. He allowed four runs in six innings in the first, a 5-2 loss to the lowly Royals. 

As we saw last night, Baltimore desperately misses closer Zach Britton. But it's not like this is an opponent they can't take advantage of. Through the first 16 innings of the series, O's pitching had allowed just two runs total. Alex Cobb gets the nod tonight, coming off his first win of the season in seven tries. He held Boston to only three runs in 6 1/3 innings of work for what was his third quality effort in the last four outings. It's not like the White Sox are a good home team; their seven wins are tied for the fewest in all of MLB and they're getting outscored here by 1.7 rpg. Only KC and Miami have worse overall run differentials. Again, I think it "speaks volumes" that Baltimore is favored on the ML here and I'll take 'em. 10* Baltimore

8* Under Giants/Astros (2:10 ET): As one might have suspected, the Astros had little difficulty beating the Giants on Tuesday as it was an 11-2 final that saw starter Gerrit Cole pitch well yet again and Tony Kemp provide most of the offense w/ a career-best 5 RBI game. For my money, Houston is the best team in baseball as they've already outscored the opposition by 107 runs, thanks in large part to a pitching staff that is easily the most dominant in all of baseball. The Giants offense does receive the benefit of the designated hitter in these two games, but that mattered little last night and shouldn't matter much today either, as they have to face Justin Verlander. The only difference between today and last night is that Houston should score less as well. Take the Under. 

The Astros pitching staff is #1 in baseball no matter how you look at it as they rank #1 in runs allowed, ERA, WHIP and opponents batting average. Over the last 10 games, they've given up two runs or fewer eight times and more than three just once! Look for Verlander to continue that trend this afternoon. He comes in red hot w/ a 0.86 ERA and 0.810 WHIP his L3 starts and has allowed just three runs total (two earned) over his last four, which have spanned 29 innings. Last time out, he threw a complete game shutout against the Angels. Even on a staff as great as this one, Verlander stands above the rest as he leads all of MLB individually in ERA, WHIP, opponents batting average and OPS. Over his last eight starts, he's given up just six runs TOTAL! 

Giants' starter Jeff Samardzija is not having anywhere close to the year that Verlander is. The former Notre Dame wide receiver comes in w/ a 6.30 ERA and 1.599 WHIP after six starts and the Over is 5-0-1. But, he was respectable his last time out, holding Colorado to just three runs and five hits in a quality effort. Samardzija figures to get little run support here (Giants averaging only 3.2 rpg on the road), but he can keep his team in it considering Houston has hardly been an offensive juggernaut here at home. They average just 4.1 rpg at Minute Maid Park w/ a collective .237 batting average. Like the oddsmakers' number here too as 7.0 is a key number when betting MLB totals. Assuming the Astros take care of business here as a large ML favorite, we should also avoid having to play the bottom of the ninth, which often times can be the difference between a game staying Under or going Over. 8* Under Giants/Astros

10* Houston (9:05 ET): For the second time in three games, the Rockets were humiliated by the Warriors as they lost Game 3 by an embarrassing 45-point margin. Once they got down, it was a total laydown "effort" which saw them get outscored 38-18 in the fourth quarter. Steph Curry finally came alive for the Warriors, scoring 35 pts on 13 of 23 shooting. That was more points than he had in Games 1 and 2 combined (34) when he was 2 for 13 from three-point range. At one point, before catching fire late in Game 3, he was 3 for 19 from three-point range for the series. As for Houston, they shot just 39.5% overall for the game. This shapes up like a classic "zig zag" spot in the NBA playoffs where you take the team that got blown out the last game. That's precisely what I'll do as this is a big number for a Rockets team that was favored in both home games. 

You don't see the Rockets lose that big or score that little very often. Sunday marked just the third time all season that they were held below 85 points. They came back and won the next game after both such occasions. They are also 7-3 SU off a double digit loss this season. They have yet to drop B2B games this postseason, coming back from their lone loss in the Minnesota series w/ a 19-pt win (on the road) and then their lone loss in the Utah series w/ a 21-pt win (also on the road). Of course, the also rebounded from losing Game 1 of this series w/ a 22-point win in Game 2 (at home). So that's an average margin of victory of 21 PPG when off a loss in the playoffs. Not saying that will happen here, but it's illustrative of how the team doesn't play poorly in B2B games. 

Conversely, the Warriors are just 3-6 ATS when leading in the series during these playoffs. Everyone has been quick to proclaim "the return of Curry," but he really didn't get going until Game 3 was out of reach. Andre Iguodala has been listed as "doubtful" for tonight w/ a knee injury. Getting back to the Houston supporting cast, we saw Eric Gordon, P.J. Tucker and Trevor Ariza combine for 68 points (on 23 of 33 shooting!) in Game 2. That same trio had just 23 total pts (8 of 24 shooting) in Game 3. They should, collectively, have a bounce back effort tonight. Remember that Houston is 51-14 SU this year when another trio - James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capella - all play. 10* Houston

6* Run Line Miami (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run play only where I am backing the Marlins at +1.5. I did the same yday and unfortunately the team "forgot to score," dropping a tough 2-0 decision on the road to the Mets, who are now 4-0 this season vs. the Fish. They swept them back during an 11-1 start, but since then NY has largely floundered under first year skipper Mickey Callahan, going just 13-18 overall. Keep in mind they've also now won four straight, so the slide had been much worse prior to this, their longest win streak since that 11-1 start. But I see Miami doing no worse than a one-run loss tonight as they still have revenge and there are "key indicators" that they are the "sharp side" here. Take the +1.5.

Incredibly, last night was the seventh time already that the Marlins have been shutout this season. It was also the second time in the last five games, a stretch which has seen them get held to two runs or fewer four times. But the scoring should come tonight against Zach Wheeler, who has been one of the "weak links" of the Mets' rotation so far. Of course, you could have said the same for last night's starter, Jason Vargas, but look what he did. Still, Wheeler has a 5.92 ERA and 1.553 WHIP through seven starts this year and has been particularly bad here at home w/ a 9.56 ERA and 2.062 WHIP. The team is 0-3 when he starts here at Citi Field as well as 0-3 his L3 starts overall. Last time out, he gave up six runs in just four innings in what turned out to be an ugly 12-1 loss to the Blue Jays, an American League opponent that was playing w/o the DH. 

Miami looks to have the better starter on the mound again tonight. Last night, Elieser Hernandez pitched well enough to win, but the offense failed to support him. Tonight, we have Caleb Smith, who is off one of his weaker efforts to date, but has also pitched well against the Mets before. Back on 4.10, he allowed just three runs in five innings, but Jacob deGrom and the Mets still won 8-6, thanks to a four-run rally over the final two innings (obviously not Smith's fault). Smith had allowed 2 ER or fewer in four straight starts prior to his last one. Something to keep in mind about Vargas' performance for the Mets last night as that his previous turn in the rotation had been skipped (due to him pitching so poorly), so he was working on extended rest. That is NOT the case here w/ Wheeler. The Mets are still only 27th in MLB in runs scored. 6* Run Line Miami (+1.5)

8* Washington (7:05 ET): The Nationals romped their way to victory on Monday, beating down the Padres 10-2 in the opener of this three-game series. I suspect we'll be seeing similar results over the next two days, particularly tonight as the Nats send the red-hot Jeremy Hellickson to the bump. Over his L3 starts, Hellickson has a 0.52 ERA and 0.519 WHIP and the team has gone 3-0. On a staff that includes names such as Scherzer and Strasburg, Hellickson is right there w/ them, battling for the team lead in ERA and WHIP. He'll be opposed tonight by Eric Lauer, whose numbers currently reside on the opposite end of the spectrum. Lauer has an 8.14 ERA and 2.095 WHIP through five starts, ugly numbers that don't figure to subside here facing a lineup that just scored 10 runs yday. 

Washington had been swept over the weekend, here at home, by the Dodgers. But a visit from a far weaker NL West foe (on paper, at least) figures to bring a much different result. San Diego came to the Nation's Capital riding a three-game win streak, all at the expense of the Pittsburgh Pirates, but this is a team destined for last place in its division. Consider last year's team, which wasn't very good (lost 91 games), should have had even more losses based on its run differential of -212 (was easily MLB's worst LY). That's a run diff of an 105-loss team, for the record. The Padres might be 9-11 on the road this year, but they're not scoring much (3.9 rpg) or hitting well either (.222 team BA). They had just two runs on four hits yesterday.

Hellickson has allowed a total of just one run his L3 starts w/ 17 strikeouts and just one walk. While he's pitched more than six innings only once (in six starts) this year, he's yet to allow more than 3 ER. Back on May 8th, he threw 6 2/3 scoreless innings (longest start to date) of two-hit ball against these Padres. He also finished that game w/ a season-high eight strikeouts. As for Lauer, he's allowed a total of 10 runs in his last two outings - more than Hellickson has given up all season. It's only taken seven innings for Lauer to give up that many as well. After allowing 4 HR's in an ugly loss to St. Louis on 5.11, he allowed "only" four runs in 4 2/3 innings his last time out. But he certainly "fell apart" the second time through the order and that's a troubling sign. The Nationals are "due" to start performing far better at home and the insertion of 19-year old rookie Juan Soto into the lineup seems to have provided somewhat of an offensive "spark." 8* Washington

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): Ask any regular client of mine and they'll tell you that I'm a firm believer in a team's scoring differential being a far better predictor of future results than an actual won-loss record. This goes for any sport. In baseball, as I look at the current NL West standings, I can't help but think the Dodgers are ready to climb while the Rockies are set to fall. Though the latter currently holds a 4.5 game edge over the former, it is Dodger Blue that has actually outscored its opposition over the course of this season (+12 run differential, despite a 20-26 record) while the Rockies have been outscored by 24 runs (despite being 25-22). This series could go a long way in rectifying those disparities. I'm on the Dodgers in Monday's series opener at Chavez Ravine.

We've already started to see some "signs of life" from this Dodgers club as over the weekend they swept the Nationals, in D.C., in impressive fashion. They won every game as a ML dog, but are still "well in the hole" for the season at -23.0 units, which right there should tell you how short of expectations they've been thus far. A lot of that has to do w/ injuries. But w/ tonight being the start of a season-long 10-game homestand, it's a "golden opportunity" to turn things around. Rookie Walker Buehler gets the start tonigt and while it's tempting to say "he's only here" because of injuries to Kershaw and Hill, Buehler is proving he belongs w/ a 2.67 ERA in five starts. His last start, which was on the road, was his weakest to date. In each of the first four, he gave up 2 ER or less (just 4 total) in 22 IP. 

Colorado is a franchise largely defined by its home park and the advantage it provides to hitters, both its own and the opponents. But the last two years have seen this team perform much better on the road than in years past. They are off to an 18-11 start away from Coors Field this season due in large part to their pitching allowing an average of just 3.8 runs per game. But lost in that is their hitters are scoring just 3.9 rpg w/ a collective .221 average. Typical then is that we find tonight's starter German Marquez w/ better numbers on the road than at home. But his WHIP in five road starts is a fairly pedestrian 1.214 and that's facing some pretty bad offenses. The Rockies did lose both games over the weekend (to San Francisco) and the fact they've been outscored by so many runs this season says to me that they are not as strong as their record shows. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Over Celtics/Cavaliers (8:35 ET): Cleveland got a much needed win in Game 3, finally providing LeBron James w/ some support. In addition to James' 27 points and 12 assists, all other Cavs' starters scored in double figures and the team finished w/ 116 points and made 17 three-pointers. That's a big change from the first two games in Boston where they scored just 179 pts total and shot very poorly (particularly from three-point range). While the home team is now 3-0 in this series, so too is the Under as the losing side has yet to score more than 94 points in any of the three games. Boston was very bad shooting the ball on Saturday, making only 39.2% from the field, including 6 of 22 on three-pointers. My guess is they'll be a lot better here offensively (remember, Cleveland ranked 28th in defensive efficiency during the regular season) and the Cavs will be pretty close to their Game 3 performance as well. Take the Over. 

Each team has been pretty dismal from three-point range in two of the three games in this series. For Cleveland, it was obviously Games 1 and 2 as they went a combined 14 of 57 (24.5%). Therefore, Game 3 was a much-needed and welcome refresher. James made all three attempts from distance, but the real key was the rest of the team going 14 of 31, led by Kyle Korver and J.R. Smith going a combined 7 of 8. Remember - role players typically perform better at home. Obviously, I'm not anticipating much of a dropoff for Game 4. For the year, the Cavs are averaging 110.5 PPG at home on 48.2% shooting. This is also a team that averages 12 three-pointers made per game for the year. 

Boston does not need to win another road game to advance to the NBA Finals (they have homecourt advantage in this series), but they need to at least start playing better on the road. Saturday's loss dropped them to 1-5 SU on the road in these playoffs and they have not scored more than 102 pts in any of those games. Four times, they've been held to 92 or fewer. But Cleveland is giving up 108.7 PPG for the year and isn't a good defensive team. It's hard to imagine the Celtics shooting as poorly as they did in Game 3 or for that matter, the last two games. They are just 69 of 166 the L2 games, 41.5 FG%, including 16 of 53 from three-point range. James defended like a monster in Game 3, but given his offensive burden, I'm not sure a repeat of that can be reasonably expected. 10* Over Celtics/Cavaliers

10* Under Lightning/Capitals (8:10 ET): I've said it before and I'll say it again. It's pretty ironic that Washington's playoff run could very well end the same way it started. If you recall, they opened this postseason by dropping the first two games (both at home) of their Round 1 series vs. Columbus. But they stormed back to take the next four games (three of them in C-bus), then finally got over the "emotional hurdle" that was the rival Penguins, eliminating them in six games too. The Eastern Conference Finals began w/ the road team taking the first two games, only this time it was Washington turning the trick. But just like the Blue Jackets in Rd 1, the Capitals have been unable to sustain "momentum" (hate that word!). Tampa Bay has come all the way back and after the road team won each of the first four games of this series, they took back the home ice advantage w/ a 3-2 win in Game 5 at Amalie Arena on Saturday. Washington now must win this game (at home) to keep its season alive and force a Game 7, which would take place in Tampa on Wednesday. Vegas awaits the winner of this series in the Stanley Cup Finals.

I had the Under in Game 5 and it won. It was actually the first Under in the series after three of the first four games "pushed" (on the number of 6.0) and Game 2 (Capitals won 6-2) went Over. I have little to add here that I didn't say in my Game 5 analysis. As projected here, both power plays are starting to decline from the ridiculous conversion rates we saw in the first two rounds. In fact, Game 5 saw only one power play chance from either side (TB) and it was successfully killed off. No team had been better w/ the man advantage in the first two rounds than Washington, but they have zero PP goals the L3 games and are just 3 for 14 in this series. Meanwhile, Game 5 snapped a streak for the Lightning that had seen them score at least one PP goal in nine consecutive contests. 

Bottom line is that the respective power plays were on an unsustainable run of success and were "due" to come down. Tampa Bay had scored 11 PP goals in that nine-game stretch and that's pretty ridiculous even for a unit that was 3rd overall in the regular season. They are 40% w/ the man advantage in the series and 30% in the playoffs overall, numbers well above their 23.9% in the reg season. The Capitals are at 28.6% on the PP in the playoffs, but have dropped to 21.4% in the series, which is more in line w/ their own reg season performance (where they ranked 7th in the league). If there is something the hosts can lean on here, it's the fact that goalie Braden Holtby has been much better at home than on the road this year. Meanwhile, this series may represent a bit of a dropoff for Lightning netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy, but he's still allowed two goals or less in 9 of the team's 15 playoff games. 10* Under Lightning/Capitals

8* Run Line Miami (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Marlins at +1.5. I probably don't have to tell you that it's been a very ugly start to the season for the Fish. They currently own the worst record in the National League (17-29) and the worst overall run differential in all of baseball (-88). Not that this should really come as any real surprise. Though the franchise has two World Series victories to its credit in its relatively brief 25-year history, virtually every other season has seemed only to serve ownership (i.e. their pocketbooks) and not the fanbase. When a Derek Jeter-led group purchased the Marlins in the offseason, an immediate teardown began (yet again) and all the signs of a last place campaign were present.

Now that we've got all that out of the way, let's talk about why I think Miami can win this game! For starters, the team is a respectable 3-3 over its L6 games w/ one of those losses (yesterday's) coming by just one run (and that was after giving up six runs in the bottom of the ninth!). This is also a situation I like as they have revenge for a prior three-game sweep that took place back in April. That came at a time when the Mets were playing great baseball. They started 11-1 under 1st year skipper Mickey Callahan, but have since gone just 12-18 their L30 games and that includes a three-game sweep of Arizona over the weekend. The current Mets' win streak (three games) is their longest since beginning the season 11-1. I find it's difficult to sweep the same opponent twice in a row, especially if it's a division foe. That's why I look for the Marlins to do no worse than a one-run loss in this game.

In that D'backs-Mets series, I was 2 for 2, cashing the Mets on Friday and then the Under yesterday. In both instances, I leaned heavily on the Mets' starters, who were Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. But I don't dare endorse Monday's starter, Jason Vargas, who comes in w/ a very ugly 13.86 ERA and 2.674 WHIP after three starts. All three have been Mets' losses and they've been outscored in those games by a combined score of 30-4! Even worse is that two of the games came against Cincinnati and San Diego, who are the "other" last place teams in the NL. So there's hope for Miami here, especially if their starter Elieser Hernandez pitches the way he did in his big league debut last Wednesday. There, he gave up just one run (on a solo HR) and three hits in 5 IP and the team beat the Dodgers as +180 ML dogs. Don't forget that the Mets rank only 26th in MLB in runs per game. 8* Run Line Miami (+1.5)

10* Houston (8:05 ET): The Rockets tied up this best of seven Western Conference Finals w/ a convincing 127-105 win in Game 2. It feels as if that game took place "eons ago," (Wednesday to be exact), so allow me to remind you that Houston's back was really "up against the wall" in that one as the chances of them overcoming a 2-0 series deficit to the Warriors, with both losses coming at home, was next to nil. Now the scene shifts to Oakland for Game 3 and it's no surprise that the Dubs are prohibitive favorites to reassert control in the series. However, I see them being favored by too many here as I'll remind you that Houston was the better team - whether you're talking record, net efficiency or point differential - in the regular season. Take the points here.

It's not as if the Rockets' postseason performance should result in any sort of "downgrade" here either. Like Golden State, they needed just five games to advance past their first two opponents. Tonight marks the first time in these playoffs that they will be an underdog. After basically failing to exceed their season average in points per game six straight times, Houston finally "woke up" offensively in Game 2, scoring 127 points on 51.1% shooting and they made 16 three-pointers. It's not like the team's scoring average dips that much on the road where they are averaging over 110 PPG for the season. They also have the best road record in the league mind you at 34-11 SU. They've won the L3 road games, one in Minnesota and two in Utah, by an average of almost 18 PPG (all by 13 or more).

Now Golden State is obviously a "step up" from those two aforementioned teams (actually, SEVERAL steps up), but with the points this is more than "doable" for the Rockets and, in fact, I believe they can take this game straight up. Yes, Kevin Durant has been as good as any player not named "LeBron James" in these playoffs. But what about Steph Curry? He is averaging only 17.0 PPG and has missed 11 of 13 three-point attempts. The "knee-jerk" reaction would be to call for a breakout performance here in Game 3, but I'm not so sure of that. Plus, Houston scores so much that the Warriors' margin for error in covering this spread is pretty small. That's if they even win. Note that the Dubs are just 10-22 ATS when facing an opponent w/ a winning record the second half of the season. This one can go either way, so I'm definitely taking the points. 10* Houston

8* Seattle (4:10 ET): You've got to give a lot of credit to the Mariners in this series as they easily could have rolled over like dogs in the wake of the Robinson Cano suspension. Instead though, they've roared like lions and are now in a position to take three of four from the visiting Tigers. After the teams exchanged one-run victories in the first two games of this series, Seattle won easily last night, 7-2, behind another strong effort from starter James Paxton, who threw a three-hit complete game. Detroit has now lost 9 of its last 10 games at Safeco Field and tonight must deal with another hot Seattle starter, that being Wade LeBlanc. Look for the M's to make it three in a row here. 

LeBlanc has a 0.60 ERA and 0.733 WHIP after three starts and has been outstanding in all of them. He's allowed just one run in 15 innings of work (on a solo homer) and has a 10-1 KW ratio. He's allowed just 10 hits. Last time out, he tossed six scoreless innings against Minnesota in his longest - and strongest - effort to date. Whether or not he can maintain this over a full season - he's 33 and been designated for assignment seven times in his career - remains to be seen. But I'm confident that he should keep rolling against these Tigers, who I'll remind you are just 79-106 on the road the L3 seasons. Detroit has also scored just nine runs total in this series. 

The Tigers counter here w/ Francisco Liriano, who is off his roughest outing of the season to date. He allowed five runs - and gave up two home runs - in just 4 2/3 IP against Cleveland. Fortunately for him though, he was bailed out late and the team won 9-8. Liriano had certainly pitched well before that, but he also hasn't made it past the fifth inning in B2B starts. I just don't like his - nor his team's chances Sunday against a Seattle team that is a "sneaky good" 26-19 this year, just 2.5 games back of the division leading Astros! 8* Seattle

10* Winnipeg (3:05 ET): If the Jets are to snap Canada's quarter century long Stanley Cup drought, it's going to take one heck of a comeback. They are down three games to one to the Golden Knights in this Western Conference Finals, a cruel bit of irony considering this is the first year of professional hockey in Las Vegas while Canada invented the sport. But fortunately for the Jets, even though they're facing elimination, is that tonight's game is on home ice. So too would be Game 7, if things were to get that far. Here in Winnipeg, the team was 32-7-2 straight up in the regular season. Not only was that the fewest number of home regulation losses in the entire league, they also led the league in scoring on home ice at 3.8 goals per game. I can't see the Jets' season ending today.

Now, Winnipeg did lose the last time here, which was Game 2 of this series. They've actually now lost three of four on home ice, dating back to the Nashville series. That's pretty stunning, given the regular season success, and something I cannot see continuing. They did win all three home games in their first round series, outscoring Minnesota 12-3. In fact, they won their first four home playoff games w/ a 19-7 scoring edge. So that's a 36-7-2 SU record before dropping three of the last four. (You can see why I think it's likely they get back on track here). This is also tied for the longest overall losing streak of the Jets' season (3 games). Only twice during the regular season did they lose three in a row. Both of those streaks were entirely comprised of road games. In each instance, they came back and won the next time out at home. The final scores of those two games were: 5-1 and 6-2. 

The Jets have outshot the Knights in all four games of this series and certainly "looked" like the better team in the third period Friday. But it was still not enough as they lost 3-2 to put themselves on the brink. Part of the issue is that Golden Knights' goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury is having himself a phenomenal postseason as his save percentage is .945. But I'm not confident he can sustain that, especially going against a team that has proven itself so prolific in goal scoring here at home. Counterpart Connor Hellebuyck has not had a great series by comparison, but the Jets are 35-10 SU this season when he starts at home. 10* Winnipeg

10* Under D'backs/Mets (1:05 ET): For the 1st time in a month, the Mets have won B2B games. I was on them Friday as they prevailed 3-1 behind a strong effort from starter Jacob deGrom, who achieved a career high 13 strikeouts. The team then won a very foggy game yday, 5-4, after rallying for three runs in the final two frames. As I wrote in my analysis for Friday's opener, neither club came into this series playing well. The Mets' 11-1 start is a "thing of the past" as they'd go onto drop 19 of their next 28 under 1st year manager Mickey Callahan. Arizona similarly got off to a red-hot start (21-8) and as a result has led the NL West "wire to wire" so far. But they too have "hit the skids," losing 9 out of the last 10 games. Neither team's offense has done much to impress me in this series - or beyond, for that matter - and I'm on the Under Sunday. 

Having Noah Syndergaard on the mound this afternoon should certainly give Mets' fans hope that they can pull off their first sweep since April 9-11 in Miami. Syndergaard checks in as a heavy favorite on the money line and for good reason, as he has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any of his nine starts this season. Last time out, he allowed just two runs on five hits in what ended up being a very easy 12-2 win over Toronto. Syndergaard has a 2.89 ERA in three career starts vs. the D'backs and should flourish this time around as the entire Arizona offense is in a giant slump. Not once over the L10 games have the D'backs scored more than four runs. A strong effort from Syndergaard and the Mets here could lead to a situation where we avoid having to play the bottom of the ninth, which sometimes can be the difference between winning and losing an Under bet.

It's a familiar name pitching for Arizona today, though not one we've seen in 2018, let alone in a D'backs' uniform. Clay Buchholz will toe the rubber for the 1st time since April of last year when his opponent was - ironically - these same Mets. Buchholz, then a member of the Phillies, did not fare well that day as he allowed six runs in just 2 2/3 IP. A torn flexor tendon in his right arm ended last season, but now he's back and ready to show he still belongs in a big-league rotation. Facing the Mets anemic offense should be an ideal spot as this is a team that had scored three runs or fewer in 8 of 10 games going into yday. The Mets are tied for 27th in all of MLB in runs scored. 10* Under D'backs/Mets

8* LA Angels (9:05 ET): Well, the Halos haven't treated me well the last two days, but I'm hoping that the "third time will be the charm." Certainly, their woeful 11-16 mark at home has to improve, right? They've dropped four in a row here in Anaheim, the first two to Houston and the last two to Tampa Bay. Last night's 8-3 setback dropped LA to third in the AL West, one half game below Seattle (who just lost Robinson Cano). But here is the spot where they get back on track as they'll get a chance to face spot starter Sergio Romo (1st career big league start), who is a career reliever. The Rays have won five straight, but three of those were against the Royals. I can't see this stretch of winning on the road continuing for them. 

The last time the Angels won, Andrew Heaney was on the mound. He'll get the call again tonight, hoping for a repeat of that last performance when he held Houston to one run on four hits over eight innings. He also finished w/ 10 K's. He's gone four straight starts w/o allowing a HR and has allowed just six runs (five earned) over that same stretch, which has lasted 25 IP. A big key for the Rays in this series (so far) has been the long ball. They came to Anaheim having hit only 37 home runs in 41 games, which was 13th in the American League. They have hit six over the L2 games. Expect regression in this department. 

Mike Trout stepped up to the plate in the eighth inning last night on a career worst 0 for 21 slump. He hit a home run in that final at-bat, and you have to think it's just a matter of time before he starts performing at his usual MVP level. Though Romo is starting here only b/c of the Angels' right-handed heavy lineup, he's someone I can see Trout taking full advantage of facing. This current four-game slide is tied for the longest of the entire Angels' season. I said it before and I'll say it again. Why they are 3-9 vs. the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros (three top teams in the AL), they entered this series 22-9 against everyone else. 8* LA Angels 

10* Under Celtics/Cavaliers (8:35 ET): It has not been a good first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals for Cleveland, who has been held to just 177 pts on 40.9% shooting by the team that finished #1 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. For Boston, they couldn't have asked for a better start as they still undefeated at home this postseason (9-0 SU/ATS) w/ this "rag tag" group of well-coached players exceeding all expectations. But I wouldn't bet against Cleveland in this spot. Nor would I bet against a Celtics team that is now 23-8 ATS when taking points this season. What I would bet on for Game 3 is another Under as the Cavs are back to getting next to nothing outside of LeBron while Boston should see its own scoring (from the first two games) decrease, now that they're on the road. 

Game 2 was especially frustrating for Cavs' fans as LeBron had another triple double, this one coming w/ 42 points. But the rest of the team contributed just 52 and Kevin Love had 22 of those. The rest of the team combined for an odious 30 points on 12 of 33 shooting. That's how you blow a double-digit lead (which the Cavs had in Game 2). My guess is that at least one "role player" will step up and contribute tonight. But the lack of depth remains glaring here. Cleveland's overall scoring average in the playoffs (101.2 points per game) is way down from what it was in the regular season. This is also a bad free throw shooting team, which has cost them at times. The Under is 3-0 this postseason for the Cavs when trailing in a playoff series and 4-0 this season when playing w/ three or more days rest. 

Boston didn't exactly shoot well either in Game 2, going just 43.2% overall, including 10 of 31 from three-point range (Cleveland was an identical 10 for 31 from distance). But they had 12 more FG attempts and turned it over far less. Jaylen Brown has scored 23 pts in both games in this series and he + Terry Rozier have outscored Cleveland's starting backcourt 72-12 in the two games. But, key here is that the Celtics are just 1-4 SU on the road in the playoffs w/ significant drops in almost all major statistical categories. They have yet to top 102 pts in any of those five playoff road games and are averaging just 97 PPG overall. 10* Under Celtics/Cavs

10* Under Capitals/Lightning (7:15 ET): Going into Game 4, I wrote something to the effect that Washington was facing a situation where their playoff run could end the same way it began. For if you recall, they opened this postseason by dropping the first two games (both at home) of their Round 1 series vs. Columbus. They stormed back to take the next four games, then finally got over the "emotional hurdle" that was the rival Penguins, eliminating them in six games too. Then, they started the Eastern Conference Finals by taking both Games 1 and 2 in Tampa Bay. But just like that 1st round series w/ Columbus, the road team has continued winning through the first four games and we're all tied up at two games apiece. Now perhaps, the Caps are in some trouble as they'll have to win at least one more time on the road. Interesting is that the Lightning aren't priced as high (on the ML) here as they were for either of the first two games. 

I'll be on the Under here in Game 5. None of the first four games have seen fewer than six total goals scored, but three of the four happen to have landed right on that number of 6, which not coincidentally has been the O/U line set by oddsmakers. I believe we're due for a decrease in scoring as the series moves forward, particuarly from the respective power plays, which have reached a point of "unsustainability," at least in my view. Tampa Bay has now scored a PP goal in nine straight games, going 11 of 33. They are converting at 30.8% for the entire playoffs, including 41.2% the L5 games. That's fairly ridiculous, even for a team that finished the regular season w/ the third best PP in the league. But they were "only" 23.9% over the 82-game season. 

Washington's power play had been even more prolific this postseason, but has perhaps already begun to curtail, going a combined 0 for 7 the L2 games. The good news is that they've outshot the Lightning in all four games, by a pretty substantial margin. It was definitely disappointing to see goalie Braden Holtby perform as poorly as he did in the two games at home, but I think he'll bounce back here. Meanwhile, TB's Vasilevskiy has allowed two or fewer goals in 8 of the team's 14 playoff games. With both PP's set to regress, the stakes so high and my belief we'll see two standout performances between the pipes here, Under is the call. 10* Under Capitals/Lightning 

8* Under Orioles/Red Sox (7:10 ET): Baltimore finally beat Boston yday, doing so 7-4 at +175 on the money line. Previously, they had gone 0-4 against their AL East rival this season, getting outscored 26-9 in the process. As you likely know, this has not been a good season for the O's. Even w/ the win yday, they are just 14-30 overall, including a somewhat disastrous 4-17 on the road (outscored by 2.5 runs per game!). So perhaps "tread lightly" w/ the dog here. Where I'll step in though is w/ the Under as I like the number here quite a bit (9 is a key number in betting baseball totals), plus if Boston takes care of business here (as a large favorite), there's a decent chance we'll avoid playing the bottom of the ninth, always a help for Under bettors.

Now Unders have been nowhere to speak of over Dylan Bundy's last three outings. Tonight's starter for Baltimore has seen the winning team score no fewer than 10 runs in any of his L3 games. Only one of those was a win, that being his last time out, 17-1 over Tampa Bay. There, Bundy tossed seven scoreless innings of two-hit ball, arguably his most impressive performance of '18 to date. It was certainly an improvement on the disasters that were his previous three starts, which saw him allow a combined 22 runs in just 9 IP. But note that prior to that stretch, Bundy had allowed 3 ER or fewer in each of his first four starts. 

I think it would be "foolhardy" for Bundy to expect the same kind of run support here that he got his last time out. I say that knowing full well that the Orioles lineup ranks 29th in MLB in on base percentage. They also entered yday averaging just 3.7 runs per game on the road. They were also batting just .218 against right-handed starters and averaging only 3.5 rpg. Tonight, they face Rick Porcello, who checks in w/ a sterling 0.857 WHIP in his four Fenway starts. That's even after he allowed five runs his last time out against Oakland. Porcello, like Bundy, started the season strong by allowing 3 ER or fewer in each of his first five starts, all Boston wins. Bundy, like Porcello, has pitched well here at Fenway in the past. He has a 3.18 ERA in seven career appearances. Last month, he gave up three runs here in 5 2/3 IP, but only one was earned. 8* Under Orioles/Red Sox

8* Run Line Detroit (10:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Tigers at +1.5. This play is also a bit of an "about face" for me, though it's precisely the same situation I used (admittedly unsuccessfully) last night. That being, taking the losing pitcher in an "immediate revenge" situation as he's facing off against the same starter for a second consecutive outing. Here, we have Detroit's Michael Fulmer squaring off against Seattle's Felix Hernandez. King Felix and the M's got the best of Fulmer and the Tigers last Saturday, but I'm not quite sure that'll happen again as in yday's analysis, I did point out the myriad of issues Seattle is facing right now. I'll say that Detroit does no worse than a one-run loss Friday night. 

Fulmer did not pitch well last Saturday as he gave up six runs in 4 1/3 innings (allowed only five hits, but also three walks). It was the second straight start he allowed more runs than hits. Control has obviously been somewhat of an issue for him, but the bottom line is that he's allowed 2 ER or fewer in five of his eight starts this season. The Mariners lineup he faces this time around won't have Robinson Cano in it as he's been suspended for 80 games due to violating MLB's drug policy. That's a severe blow to a Seattle offense that could manage only two hits over the final six innings last night w/o either Cano or Nelson Cruz. It was the third time in four games that the M's were held to two runs or fewer and sixth straight game they were held to four or fewer.

The Tigers have actually won five of six now w/ the only loss coming via shutout in Cleveland Wednesday. They are actually only three games below .500 right now. Though they did lose to Hernandez last week, it's not as if they didn't get to him as they scored five times in five innings off him. Make no mistake about it; this is no longer the "King Felix of old," the former Cy Young winner that was once unbeatable here at Safeco Field. He has a 5.66 ERA and 1.419 WHIP for the season (nine starts), so he should feel fortunate to have a 6-3 team start record coming into tonight. He's allowed 5 ER in B2B starts as well. As a team, the Mariners are actually being outscored by a full run per game at home. 8* Run Line Detroit (+1.5)

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): Well, the Angels failed to come through for me last night, instead getting blasted by the Rays, 7-1. The loss dropped them to 11-15 at home for the year, which is not something I thought I'd see. Don't blame starter Tyler Skaggs though; he held Tampa Bay to just one run on six hits over six innings while striking out seven. Though the Angels finished the game w/ just one run on three hits themselves, the real damage came once Skaggs was lifted as the Rays scored a total of six runs over the next two innings. I believe we'll see the home team bounce back tonight though as the pitching matchup is in their favor and Mike Trout is "due" to breakout.

Trout is currently on the longest hitless streak of his career, at 19 at-bats. He has seven walks during that time, but it's not as if the rest of the lineup is contributing as the Angels have scored a grand total of six runs in the last four games. But we should start to see that all change tonight going up against Tampa's Blake Snell, who allowed three home runs in what was a disastrous last start that ended up being a 17-1 loss to Baltimore. Snell wound up lasting only 3 1/3 IP and gave up five runs total. It was pretty easily his worst start of the season to date. The Rays haven't lost since, but remember that three of the four wins during the current streak came against the hideous Royals. 

Meanwhile, the Angels are coming off a series w/ the rival Astros, so this - theoretically - should be a drop in class where the offense gets going. Nine of the team's 19 losses this year have come to either the Astros, Yankees or Red Sox, easily the three best teams in the American League. Getting the starting nod tonight will be Nick Tropeano, who has a 1.019 WHIP his L3 starts despite being winless during that stretch. In his last three starts against teams not named "Houston" or "Boston," Tropeano has allowed only a total of three runs in 19 innings. This is just the third time so far this season that the Angels have lost three more games in a row. They should bounce back. 8* LA Angels

10* Over Jets/Golden Knights (8:05 ET): For the 1st time this postseason, Winnipeg finds itself trailing in a series. After taking Game 1 of this Western Conference Final, 4-2, they have since surrendered the home ice advantage by losing Games 2 and 3, by respective scores of 3-1 and 4-2. Thus, Vegas would appear to be sitting pretty, given the tremendous home ice advantage they've enjoyed all season long and the fact they've lost only three games this entire postseason. We've seen the Golden Knights completely rewrite the record books for an expansion team (no matter the sport) and making the Stanley Cup Final in their 1st year of existence would obviously be a remarkable achievement. But I'm not about to write off Winnipeg (who won a Game 7 at Nashville) just yet either. It's the total I'm focused on here for Game 4 Friday night. 

The Jets are the highest scoring home team in the league at 3.8 goals per game, but guess who wasn't too far behind them (at #4). That would be the Golden Knights, who averaged 3.56 goals per game here in Sin City during the regular season. They've actually slightly exceeded that average here during the playoffs, averaging 3.67 per game. The Knights have been outshot in all three games in this series, but have been bailed out in the last two by goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, who is having himself a remarkable postseason. Fleury now has a .945 save percentage overall in the playoffs. But, moving forward, that is a difficult percentage to maintain, especially when faced w/ a talented and explosive team like the Jets.

What Winnipeg desperately needs right now is for someone other than center Mark Scheifele to start scoring. Scheifele has accounted for 14 of his teams 50 goals this postseason, an incredibly high percentage. He had both Jets' goals in Game Three. I have to imagine that a deep team that came into the Conference Finals w/ seven players having multiple even strength goals and five w/ double-digit, all situation, point totals, is going to get going soon. Note that off a loss in the previous series (vs. Nashville), Winnipeg scored 7, 6 and 5 goals the next time out. This is the 1st time in a LONG time that they are off consecutive losses (just 4th losing streak since X-mas and 1st since mid-March). Look for a high-scoring Game 4. 10* Over Jets/Golden Knights 

8* NY Mets (7:05 ET): Here's two teams that both got off to tremendous starts to the season, but only one (Arizona) remains in first place of its division and they happen to have dropped seven of their last eight, never topping more than four runs in any one game. The Mets started 11-1 under 1st year skipper Mickey Callahan, but have gone just 9-19 ever since, including an ugly 12-1 loss here at home to Toronto on Wednesday. (Both teams had Thursday off). The Mets are now only fourth in their own division (NL East), which is shaping up to be a lot tougher than Arizona's division (the NL West). But w/ Jacob deGrom starting tonight, I'm siding w/ New York in this one. 

Though deGrom pitched on Sunday, he should be very well rested here. That's because he is off the shortest outing of his career, one that lasted just one inning. Callahan pulled him due to throwing 45 pitches, the most deGrom has ever thrown in one inning in his career, which may have been short-sighted in retrospect. It's not as if deGrom was "roughed up" (though he did issue three walks) as he didn't allow any runs, extending a personal scoreless streak to 19 1/3 innings, which spans four starts. The last time deGrom allowed a run was 4.16 vs. Washington. He's allowed 1 or 0 ER in six of his eight starts and never more than four (more than three just one time). Tonight he goes against a struggling Arizona offense that has scored two runs or fewer in six of its past eight games. Furthermore, the D'backs have topped four runs only one time in May (15 games played). 

It's not as if the Mets are hitting the cover off the baseball either (though they did scored 12 runs in a win over Toronto on Tuesday). But the big difference here is that while the D'backs must deal w/ deGrom, the Mets only must deal w/ Zack Godley, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.754 WHIP on the road this season (4 starts). Godley has allowed 4 ER in B2B starts as well as three of his last four. He allowed three home runs his last time out. As a team, Arizona comes into this game batting only a collective .220 and they are now w/o CF A.J. Pollock, who will be out four to eight weeks w/ a broken left thumb. Look for the Mets to win tonight's series opener. 8* NY Mets 

10* Seattle (10:10 ET): It's certainly been a trying week for the Mariners. It began w/ them thinking they might be w/o Robinson Cano for an extended period of time when the star second baseman fractured his hand on Sunday. But things then went from "bad to worse" as MLB stepped in and ensured Cano would be missing significant time. They announced Tuesday that he would be suspended 80 games for a positive drug test. This is a severe blow as Cano was the ONLY player in baseball to play in at least 150 games each of the last 11 seasons. His 1,783 games played since '07 were by far the most of any player during that time. If losing Cano wasn't enough, Nelson Cruz has also gone down after being hit by a pitch Tuesday. 

But through it all, the M's are still persevering. They did lose yday, 5-1 to the Rangers, but are still 24-18 for the year and just 2.5 games behind the Astros, if you can believe that. Though I don't like their chances of staying in the pennant hunt long-term, I do really like them tonight as they welcome in the Detroit Tigers for a four-game weekend set. These teams just met last week in the Motor City w/ the Tigers taking two of three. One of those games saw Detroit's Matt Boyd outduel Seattle's Marco Gonzales in a battle of southpaws. Considering Gonzales and the M's were -145 on the ML in that game, they would appear to be a real "bargain" here in the rematch. This is actually one of my favorite "handicapping spots" in MLB where you have two pitchers facing off in B2B starts and you take the one who lost the first encounter. 

Gonzales has gone exactly six innings in four consecutive starts for the Tigers. The team won the first three before they simply couldn't support him enough against Boyd and the Tigers last Saturday. Giving up 10 hits certainly didn't help Gonzales's cause as that was a season-high. He's now allowed 4 ER in B2B starts, but ended April by allowing just five runs total in three starts, three of those unearned. Boyd, who grew up in Seattle (so this is a homecoming for him), has delivered five quality outings in seven tries this season. But he's still winless on the road and the team is only 7-13 in road games this year (not to mention 78-104 the L3 seasons). The Tigers had won four in a row, including two over Cleveland, before getting shutout yday. But all those games came at home. Gonzales and the Mariners get revenge tonight! 10* Seattle

8* LA Angels (10:07 ET): The Angels are coming off a tough series w/ the division rival Astros (dropped two of three) where they simply could not put up enough runs (just five in three games) against the top pitching staff in all of MLB. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay just went to Kansas City and swept the lowly Royals w/ relative ease. I look for a "reversal of fortune" here though as the Halos have to start performing better at home moving forward (just 11-14 so far) and the Rays aren't a club to be feared. Note that half (9) of Los Angeles' losses this season have been to either the Yankees, Red Sox or Astros (i.e. the top three teams in baseball). Against everyone else, they are an impressive 22-9 overall. I like them to win big in Thursday's series opener. 

Angels' starter Tyler Skaggs certainly deserves better than an 0-3 team start record his L3 starts. He did allow 2 HR's his last time out, but still sports a 3.24 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over that three start stretch. He allowed just 2 ER in each of them (16 2/3 IP total) and has allowed 2 ER or fewer in all but one of his seven starts this season (the exception coming against Boston). While the Angels have performed below par at home overall so far this season, they are 8-4 as ML favorites of -125 to -175, the range they find themselves in tonight. That speaks to the level of competition they've faced so far. The Rays are clearly not in the same class as the Red Sox or Yankees. Over the L3 seasons, LA is 42-24 in the aforementioned proce range. 

What Skaggs needs here is some run support and that he should get this evening as TB is allowing 5.5 rpg on the road this season. The Rays are even still allowing 6.6 rpg over the last seven contests even after sweeping the sorry Royals. That's largely owed to one disastrous game at Baltimore last weekend (17-1 loss), but still, this pitching staff will be a major drop in class for the Angels after facing Houston's trio of McCullers, Cole and Verlander. It will be a former All-Star they go up against here in Chris Archer, but he's a former All-Star in "name only" as he's no longer performing anywhere near that level. In nine starts this year, Archer has a 5.64 ERA and 1.405 WHIP and he just got hammered to the tune of six runs (allowed 3 HR's) his last time out, in Baltimore. That's the same number of runs Skaggs has allowed in his last four starts combined, which have spanned 23 2/3 innings. Really like the home team to get back on track in this one. 8* LA Angels

10* Over Lightning/Capitals (8:05 ET): Washington currently finds itself in a bit of a unique position, hoping its playoff run does not end similar to the way it started. Back in Round 1, they dropped the first two games (at home) to Columbus, only to storm back and take the next four (three on the road). They followed that up by (finally!) vanquishing the rival Penguins in six games in Round 2. Then, came the REAL surprise as they opened the Eastern Conference Finals by taking BOTH Games 1 & 2 in Tampa Bay. But just when you thought "for certain" these Caps were turning a corner, they dropped Game 3 at home to the Lightning, 4-2. Now, they're desperately trying to avoid the same fate they dealt Columbus back in Rd 1. While you'd think the home side was "due" to win a game in this series, I'm pointing to the total for Game 4 and thinking this one goes Over.

All three games of the series so far have seen at least six total goals scored. A huge key to both teams' success thus far in the postseason has been the power play. Washington actually outshot TB in Game 3, 38-23, but was 0 for 3 w/ the man advantage. That's been a real rarity to see from them in the playoffs as they're still converting at a phenomenal 30.8% on the PP in the playoffs. They were 3 for 7 in the first two games and have not gone B2B games w/o a PP goal in these playoffs. Not to be outdone, the Lightning have scored 11 PP goals over their L7 games and are now also at 30% in the postseason. While these convesation rates are high, note both teams had top seven power plays in the regular season. 

Center Nicklas Backstrom could return here for Washington, which would be huge. He's missed the L4 games w/ a hand injury and had 21 goals/50 assists in the reg season as well as 3 goals/10 assists in the first 11 playoff games. Meanwhile, goalie Braden Holtby had his first "off-day" in Game 3, allowing four goals for the first time this postseason. The Over is 40-24-3 in all Holtby starts this season. As for Lightning netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy, he bounced back from a shaky first two games of the series by stopping 36 of 38 shots in Game 3. But his save percentage in the last four games is still down at .898. The Lightning have scored four goals in four of their last seven games while the Capitals are averaging 3.7 gpg in the postseason. The trend of high scoring affairs should continue here in Game 4. 10* Over Lightning/Capitals

8* Run Line LA Angels (9:40 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Angels at +1.5. It was a brutal loss for the home team last night, one where they lost "coming from ahead," giving up four runs in the final two frames. The end result was 5-3 in the Astros' favor. That did come on the heels of a 2-1 win in the series opener Monday, so they now stand at 3-2 head to head w/ their main rival in the AL West this year. It is a little surprising to see that the Halos have a losing home record this season (11-13), but if you also take away two sweeps that they suffered at the hands of the Yankees & Red Sox, then they're a very impressive 25-11 against everyone else. Houston is absolutely to be respected, but LA won't do any worse than a one-run loss here. 

The Angels had to face Gerrit Cole (who has been ridiculous so far this season) yday and almost were able to pull out a victory. They took an early 2-0 lead thanks to the new top of the order, which has Mike Trout in the leadoff spot, followed by Justin Upton. Trout drew a walk in the first inning and Upton followed it w/ a HR, so look for the new lineup to become the regular one. Tonight, they'll face Justin Verlander, who is actually winless in May despite continuing to lead the AL in ERA. The problem has obviously been lack of run support as he's gotten just ONE run in his last 20 innings of work. LA pitchers have done a very good job in this series at limiting Houston hitting, holding them to just two runs total in 15 IP. Though he's pitched well against them since coming to the Astros, Verlander still has a 5.15 career ERA here at Angel Stadium. 

Starting opposite Verlander will be Garrett Richards, who has opposed him many times before. He actually came out on the wrong end of a pair of pitcher's duels late last season, but he's still 5-4 w/ a 3.28 ERA in his career vs. Houston. Unlike Verlander, the Angels' offense has been supportive of Richards, scoring at least four runs in seven of his eight starts in 2018. He's also helped himself by allowing 3 ER or less in six of the last seven. He hasn't given up more than five hits in any of the last seven starts. As impressed as I am w/ the Astros this year (1st in MLB in run differential), I don't see them dominating here as they managed just one run in the first 15 innings of the series before rallying yday. 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5) 

10* Houston (9:05 ET): Though they failed me in Game 1 (fell victim to a second half "surge"), I'll come back w/ the Rockets again in Game 2. This is basically "must-win" territory for the home team, as they do not dare fall behind 0-2 w/ the series set to move back to Oakland. Now, they wouldn't be eliminated per se, but let's be honest, dropping B2B home games to the Warriors would be "death." While the Dubs shot well in Game 1 (52.5% overall), the same really can't be said for the Rockets (45.9% overall). They scored just 50 pts after halftime, which was the difference. As was Kevin Durant scoring 37 points. James Harden scoring 41 for Houston wasn't even enough. But w/ their backs against the wall, I'll take a Rockets team that is 11-3 SU off a SU loss as a favorite this season.

The rationale for taking the Rockets here is essentially the same as it was for Game 1, only now amplified due to the situation. They've now lost only nine times in 48 tries at home this season w/ a point differential of nearly plus nine points per game. They, not Golden State, led the league in point differential and net efficiency rating during the year. They also won the regular season series, taking 2 of 3 games, including the only matchup here in Houston.  The Rockets are 50-5 straight up this season when the trio of James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Cappella take the court together. This postseason, Houston has turned the ball over on less than 10 percent of its total possessions. That number would be an all-time playoff record if it holds. For the first time in the Kerr-era, Golden State faces an opponent that may not only be just as good as the Warriors offensively, but - gasp - possibly better! The Rockets also shocking allow fewer PPG than the Dubs.

I anticipate the Rockets shooting better as a team here in Game 2 compared to Game 1. Not since the first two games of the 1st round series vs. Minnesota have they been held under 110 pts in consecutive contests. Furthermore, Golden State is just 8-20 ATS off three or more consecutive victories this season. That includes an 0-2 SU/ATS mark here in the postseason as they've followed up their previous three game losing streaks w/ a SU loss both times. The Rockets should get more here from the players beyond the trio of Harden, Paul and Capella as well. 10* Houston

10* Under Blue Jays/Mets (1:10 ET): The Mets started the season 11-1 under 1st year skipper Mickey Callahan, but the "honeymoon period" ended quickly as the club has gone just 9-17 ever since. However, yesterday was definitely a step in the right direction as they routed the Blue Jays 12-2 in the opener of a quick, two-game IL set. Noah Syndergaard absolutely did what he's "paid to do" by giving his team five solid innings w/ seven strikeouts (was working on nine days' rest). But it was the Mets' offense that was the real surprise, breaking out of a May-long slump w/ 12 runs despite both Yoenis Cespedes and Todd Frazier being out of the lineup. Syndergaard accounted for two of those runs batted in. My guess is we won't be seeing that "part of the equation" again and w/ Toronto forced to play under NL rules (no DH), Under is the call in this Wednesday afternoon affair. 

Before yday's barrage, the Mets had scored more than three runs in just two of their previous 11 games, three times being shutout. In eight of those 11 games, they'd been held to two runs or fewer. The team is now 25th in MLB in runs per game in addition to being bottom five in slugging. Hey, what do you expect? Callahan was brought in to "fix" the pitching staff, after all! Speaking of that pitching staff, it has done its best this month in spite of the lack of offense. They've allowed four runs or less in six of the past eight games, including four straight. Zack Wheeler gets the starting nod today, coming off a performance in which he limited Cincinnati to just one run over six innings and finished w/ 7 K's. The Blue Jays have never faced him before, so there's the "unfamiliarity factor." While Wheeler's numbers overall may not appear great, note that's largely a result of one poor outing, which came in the unfriendly environment (for pitchers, that is) of Coors Field.

Toronto's starting rotation has not had a solid run and the result is that - like the Mets - it's been a poor 25-game stretch for the team (just 9-16). J.A. Happ gets the call here and at least he'll be facing an NL lineup, so the no DH rule works both ways here for the Jays. Happ had allowed 3 ER or fewer in three consecutive outings prior to a rough one his last time out, which caused his ERA to jump over a full point. The key was him giving up a grand slam to Seattle's Kyle Seager. I'll call for Happ to bounce back here, but Toronto's problem is that an offense that ranks 5th in MLB in rpg at home is only 18th on the road. 10* Under Blue Jays/Mets 

6* Run Line Texas (10:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rangers +1.5. This is a horrendous spot for the Mariners. Not only did they play three games over the weekend (doubleheader on Saturday), but they lost 2B Robinson Cano to a long-term injury (broken hand). Then, they had to head to Minnesota for a make-up game on Monday, which they somehow won 1-0 despite their reliever pitching through a bout of food poisoning. The game's only run came about in the eighth inning after a throwing error by Twins' 1B Logan Morrison. Meanwhile, Texas got a much needed off-day on Monday after being held to just three runs in three games by the Houston Astros. 

The Rangers' 2018 outlook is far from rosy at this point, but they should do no worse than a one-run loss here, given the circumstance. Yes, they struggled to score against the Astros, but that's the #1 pitching staff in baseball right now and they were 2:1 underdogs in every game. It's not like Seattle has some prolific offense as they average only 3.7 rpg at Safeco Field and could manage only the unearned run yday. Plus, they are w/o Cano. Oh, I should also mention that yday's game in Minnesota started an hour and a half late because of rain. Interestingly enough, Texas has been a better team on the road this season (9-10) than at home (7-16) and keep in mind that road record was even better before the visit to Houston. 

Mike Minor gets the start here for the Rangers. He is tied for the team lead in wins (3) even though his ERA and WHIP aren't exactly what you like to see. He did give up three home runs in his most recent start, but that number equaled what he'd allowed in his first six, so I don't think it's indicative of anything. Minor is also working here on extended rest. He has a 1.65 career ERA vs. Seattle, who counters w/ Mike Leake, who has started eight games this year and has a 5.72 ERA and 1.511 WHIP. Those numbers are worse than those of Minor, yet Leake somehow has a 5-3 team start record. Leake pitched well his last time out, but has yet to deliver B2B quality starts this season. So I think he's likely to have an off-night here and Texas will take advantage. 6* Run Line Texas (+1.5)

8* Cleveland (8:35 ET): Well, it certainly didn't take the media (both national & local) to write Cleveland off in this Eastern Conference Finals. After a Game 1 debacle that saw the Cavs lose by 25 points (108-83), it's all aboard the Boston train seemingly. I had the Celtics in Game 1 mind you, but have to admit that I was very surprised at the ease at which they prevailed. They got out to a big lead early and never looked back. It obviously won't be that easy in Game 2 and I'm going w/ the "zig zag" theory for Game 2, expecting a Cavaliers' bounce back. LeBron James in particular was bad in Game 1, getting held to 15 pts on 5 of 16 shooting (missed all five 3-pt attempts). Cleveland, one of the top offensive units in the game, shot just 36% as a team and was 4 of 26 from three-point range. That won't happen again and I'm on 'em for Game 2. 

While Cleveland couldn't hit water from a boat in Game 1, Boston - its starters in particular - could not miss. The Celtics finished the game at 51.2% from the field, but that's a little misleading as the starting five combined to go 34 of 59 from the field, which is an unconscious 57.6% overall. That quintent also accounted for 10 of the team's 11 made three-pointers. Needless to say, we won't be seeing that happen again, even if Cleveland is a somewhat deficient team at the defensive end. The Celtics are still perfect at home this postseason (8-0 SU and ATS) and 10-3 ATS overall in playoff games, but Cleveland has not lost B2B games in the playoffs. They are also 15-8 ATS as dogs this season.

The Cavs have been held under 85 pts only two times previous to Game 1 this season. After both instances, they came back and won the next game. They are also 10-4 SU in that situation the L3 seasons. Boston, as good as it is defensively, had only held an opponent to 85 pts or less five times all season. Obviously, Cleveland is going to be better in Game 2 than they were in Game 1, but my call is that they'll be SIGNIFICANTLY better - to the point that we'll head back to Cleveland w/ the series knotted up at a game apiece. Don't forget James came into this series averaging 34.3 points, 9.4 rebounds, 9.0 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.0 blocks per game this postseason. 8* Cleveland

10* Under Lightning/Capitals (8:10 ET): Top seeded Tampa Bay certainly finds itself in a major hole in this Eastern Conference Finals having dropped the first two games at home. Washington is now 10-2 since re-inserting goalie Braden Holtby into the lineup and appears to be a much "different" (i.e. more clutch) team that past editions. The series now shifts to the Nation's capital and I'm a bit surprised that the home team isn't being given a little more respect by the oddsmakers. Yet, the Lightning ought to still be respected as well given all that they've accomplished. So I'm back to the total and after two relatively high-scoring games to start the series, I'm taking the Under in Game 3.

Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy had been the star of the team in the first two rounds of the playoffs. He came into the ECF sporting a somewhat ridiculous .943 save percentage at even strength. But he had - by far - his worst game on Sunday, allowing six goals on 37 shots. Particularly disastrous were the final two minutes of the second period where Vasilevskiy allowed two goals, which turned a tie game into a 4-2 Capitals' advantage going into the third period. I can't see him playing that poorly again, even w/ the series shifting sites. In fact, Vasilevskiy has a .932 save percentage for the year on the road. I also can't see Washington's power play continuing to produce at the ridiculous rate it has so far this postseason. By going 1 for 3 in Game 2, the Caps are now 16 of 49 w/ the man advantage in the playoffs, which works itself out to an unsustainable 32.7%. They're are above 35% the L5 games!

Capitals' goalie Holtby had a save percentage nearly identical to that of Vasilevskiy during the regular season. He has outshined his counterpart in this series, stopping 52 of 56 shots. I'd mentioned in previous analysis that Holtby had NOT been as strong on the road this year, but here at home his save percentage is a lot better. The Lightning got both goals from the PP in Game 2 as they too are above 30% the L5 games when on the man advantage. These PP numbers HAVE to start coming down and the good news for Holtby and the Caps is that TB doesn't score as much on the road as they do at home (no shock there). 10* Under Lightning/Capitals 

10* Under Rockies/Padres (3:40 ET): Apparently, someone in MLB's scheduling department wanted these two NL West rivals to REALLY "get to know one another" by the end of May as today will be the 12th head to head meeting already this season! Colorado took yday's series opener by a score of 6-4, thanks to Gerardo Parra's three-run HR in the top of the sixth. From there, the Rockies coasted as no runs were scored in the final three frames (by either team). I happen to think this Colorado team is pretty fortunate to be 23-19 on the season as they've been outscored by 18 runs. But I'm not running to endorse San Diego either as by season's end, they'll almost certainly end up with one of the worst records in the entire National League. Therefore, let's look at the total for this Tuesday afternoon matchup. 

Colorado is a franchise that has, more or less, been defined by its home ballpark. The thin air of Coors Field routinely lends itself to high-scoring games and this year has been no different w/ Rockies pitching allowing a NL-high 5.8 runs per game at home. Strangely though, their offense hasn't been great at home, averaging only a middling 4.3 rpg. But those same bats have been even less prolific on the road (not a surprise), averaging just 3.8 rpg. But the big surprise is how well the team has pitched away from Coors this year. They're allowing just 3.5 rpg (top 5 in MLB!) w/ opponents batting a collective .213! Indicative of this home vs. road split is today's starter, German Marquez, who has a 10.34 ERA at home, but a 2.35 ERA on the road!

San Diego has never been a team to be feared at the plate as they routinely rank near the bottom of the league in runs scored. This year is no different as they are 26th, not to mention also bottom five in team batting average, sluggling and OBP. However, if there is a saving grace for the Padres today it's the fact that the Rockies came into yday's ballgame batting just .215 on the road. That's a pretty good sign for SD starter Jordan Lyles, who pitched pretty well in his '18 debut, holding St. Louis to two runs (one unearned) in 5 IP last week. He also had six strikeouts against just one walk. The Under is 8-4 in Padres' day game so far this season and w/ this being a daytime affair, I look for that to favor the pitchers. 10* Under Rockies/Padres

10* Houston (9:05 ET): For the 1st time since Steve Kerr became the head coach of the Golden State Warriors (which was 2014), the Warriors do NOT have homecourt advantage in a playoff series. The Rockets won 65 games in the regular season, finishing seven games clear of the Dubs, thus getting the top spot in the Western Conference this year. Yet, they are they underdogs in this series and not even being given much credit at home. I think there's tremendous value on Houston in this series opener (and possibly Game 2?) as this is a team that has lost only eight times at home all season (in 47 games), winning by an average of 9.4 points per game. They, not Golden State, led the league in point differential and net efficiency rating during the year. They also won the regular season series, taking 2 of 3 games, including the only matchup here in Houston. 

Now the Warriors are by no means having a down season. Their numbers may not be as prolific as they were each of the last two seasons, but they've still lost only three playoff games in six series since Kevin Durant became a member of the team. But here's another stat for you: the Rockets are 50-5 straight up this season when the trio of James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Cappella take the court together. This postseason, Houston has turned the ball over on less than 10 percent of its total possessions. That number would be an all-time playoff record if it holds. For the first time in the Kerr-era, Golden State faces an opponent that may not only be just as good as the Warriors offensively, but - gasp - possibly better! The Rockets also shocking allow fewer PPG than the Dubs. 

You won't find the Warriors as underdogs too often. Usually, it only happens when multiple star players are out for a stretch, like we saw earlier this season. Interestingly, they are just 1-5 ATS this year as dogs. They are also just 9-21 ATS in the second half of the season against teams w/ winning records. Neither of these teams have lost this year when playing w/ three or more days rest (both 7-0 straight up), although Houston is better ATS in that situation. Just like you don't find Golden State as underdogs too often, you won't find the Rockets as this short a favorite very often. I'm sure this is the shortest number they've had to lay at home all season when healthy. The Rockets have waited all year for this game and this series. They'll show up - big time - in Game 1. 10* Houston  

8* Winnipeg (8:05 ET): The Jets wasted no time taking control of the Western Conference Finals, scoring three times in the opening seven minutes of Game 1 amd never looking back. As I said in my analysis (had the Jets), home ice advantage is a very "real thing" for this team, who had the best home record in the league during the regular season (32-7-2 SU). Winning Game 7 in Nashville speaks volumes about what this team is capable of and while Vegas has been an incredible story in this, their expansion season, the bottom line is the clock is likely to "strike midnight" at some point. I like the Jets in Game 2 for all the reasons I liked them in Game 1.

An argument could made that it was "rust over rest" for the Golden Knights in Game 1 as they were coming off a long layoff before this series. They had not played since Sunday and perhaps that showed w/ the slow start. Or the case could be made that Winnipeg is simply the superior team here. In my Game 1 analysis, I made a point to say that I was interested how the Golden Knights would perform as road dogs after such a long layoff. The answer turned out to be "not so well." We know how well they've performed in Sin City in this, their inaugural season. But this is also the first series where they do NOT have the home ice advantage. No team in the league averages more goals per game at home than does the Jets. In fact, no team had a better goal differential on home ice than did the Jets.

As I said in my Game 1 analysis, in my view, both teams Winnipeg has eliminated this postseason (Minnesota, Nashville) are stronger than either of the two Vegas took out (Los Angeles, San Jose). Certainly beating the Predators was a feather in the cap of the Jets. This is a deep team that has seven players w/ multiple even strength goals and five w/ double-digit, all situation point totals, led by center Mark Scheifle. Their blue line is so deep that they still are playing three pairs of defensemen and for good reason. They held Vegas to just 21 shots on goal in Game 1. Winnipeg is simply the better team in this series and should again win on home ice. Remember this is the ONLY team in the league that finished in the top five in both goals scored (2nd) and goals allowed (5th) during the regular season.  8* Winnipeg

9* Run Line Detroit (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Tigers at +1.5. Few will give the home team a chance in this one. After all, they've now dropped 11 in a row to the division rival Indians. That includes a four-game sweep in the Motor City last month. Furthermore, they are facing Carlos Carrasco in the series opener. Carrasco has certainly had the Tigers' number through the year as his team start record against them is 8-0 the L8 times he's gone against them. That includes a CG victory in the aforementioned sweep that took place last month as he allowed just one run on three hits. However, getting an additional 1.5 runs to work with - at this price - is too good of an opportunity to pass up, in my opinion. 

The Tigers were not a good team last year as they "led" the American League w/ 98 losses. This year, things aren't looking quite as bleak considering their record currently stands at 17-22 and they're only three games back of Cleveland despite getting swept. After splitting a doubleheader on Saturday, Detroit beat the Mariners on Sunday, 5-4, in walkoff fashion. They're now a very respectable 10-9 at home this year. While the everyday lineup has been ravaged by injuries (top four in batting order all out!), I see the home team doing no worse than a one run loss here. 

It helps having Michael Fiers on the mound. Monday's starter for the Tigers has pitched well against Cleveland in the past. It might not be as good as Carrasco has done against them, but Fiers is 2-1 w/ a 2.42 ERA in four career starts vs. the Tribe. He did not face them in the series last month. Fiers is coming off a strong effort where he held Texas to just two runs and six hits in 5 1/3 innings. He was pulled after just 79 pitches, so he should be fresh here. As good as Carrasco has been vs. Detroit the L3 season, there is the matter of him having a 6.23 ERA and 1.385 WHIP his L3 starts. He did dominate his last time out, but that was in a National League park (no DH). Also, the Indians have been far from dominant this year. They did beat the lowly Royals yesterday, 11-2, but that win only served to get them a game above .500 and they remain a losing proposition at the betting window (-8.9 units). Especially on the road where they're only 7-10. 9* Run Line Detroit (+1.5)

10* Under Capitals/Lightning (8:05 ET): Are "these" Capitals really different than the underacheivers of franchise past? Maybe so. After finally vanquishing the rival Penguins in Round 2, they came in and took Game 1 at Tampa Bay in impressive fashion, winning 4-2 as +160 ML underdogs. After starting the postseason w/ consecutive home losses to Columbus, the Caps have won 9 of their last 11 as they look to make only their second Stanley Cup Finals ever. In fact, this is just their second ever appearances in the Conference Finals! They had to wait 20 years to get here, but you can't help but think there might be a little "letdown" Sunday night in Game 2. I don't necessarily want to bet against them though, not at this price at least, so let's look at the total instead. 

Both teams are known for their scoring. The Lightning led the league in goals per game during the regular season. Washington is averaging a very impressive 3.6 gpg here in the postseason, but a lot of that has to do w/ the power play, which "struck gold" again (scoring twice) in Game 1. In the postseason, the Caps are now 15 for 46 w/ the man advantage, a ridiculous 32.6% overall, easily the highest percentage of any team. But I can't see them continuing to score at the current rate, whether we're talking even strength or on the power play. Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has been outstanding in the playoffs as he came into the series sporting a save percentage of .943 at even strength. In six of the team's 10 games in the first two rounds, Vasilevskiy has allowed two goals or fewer. I believe he'll bounce back here after a subpar Game 1 effort. 

No team in the playoffs has allowed fewer scoring chances than TB. The problem for them in Game 1 was that they had only 21 shots on goal. That's a problem as Washington's Braden Holtby has a nearly identical save percentage to Vasilevskiy overall in the postseason. The Capitals have not allowed more than three goals in any playoff game w/ Holtby between the pipes. Washington has gone Over in only two of its previous seven games while TB has gone Over in only two of its previous eight. 10* Under Capitals/Lightning

10* Arizona (8:05 ET): The D'backs have led the NL West wire to wire so far, but this series has NOT gone their way as they've managed all of three runs and lost all three games. They'll get a chance to avoid the sweep by beating the surging Nationals on ESPN Sunday night. The Nats have won 12 of 14, but have still been money losers at the betting window overall. Meanwhile, Arizona continues to be the most profitable team to bet on in the entire sport. That dichotomy speaks to the respective starts of the two ballclubs here and I simply don't think anyone would have anticipated a sweep, by Washington no less, as a likely result coming into this series. You just don't see home teams get swept in four game series very often, especially good ones like the D'backs. 

The good news for Arizona here is that they won't be facing Max Scherzer or Stephen Strasburg. Those two held the D'backs' bats in check to the tune of two runs and nine hits in over 13 IP. They also fanned 20. Now, on the mound tonight for Washington will be Jeremy Hellickson, who has a 0.827 WHIP in five starts himself. He's yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start and hasn't given up ANY in his last two, a stretch of 12 1/3 IP. However, Hellickson has not found much success in his career against Arizona. He's winless in five career tries against them and that includes a no-decision last month where he allowed two solo home runs and the team ended up losing 4-3 in 11 innings. I'm just not sure I'm ready to fully buy into Hellickson just yet.

Arizona is one of two teams that allow fewer runs per game than Washington. At home, they are allowing just over 3.0 rpg w/ opponents batting just over .200! Starting tonight will be Zach Godley, who has a 1.96 ERA and 1.091 WHIP at Chase Field. In four of seven starts this year, Godley has given up 2 ER or fewer, all three exceptions. He did win at Washington last month, opposite Stephen Strasburg, as a +150 ML dog. Note that this is the first series all season that the D'backs have lost and the current four-game skid is their longest of the season. They'll get the win tonight. 10* Arizona

8* LA Dodgers (4:05 ET): The Dodgers likely qualify as the biggest early season disappointment in all of MLB (currently 16-23 and over -23.0 units), but the indignity of being swept at home by the Reds would probably qualify as a new nadir. They have a chance to avoid that fate, mind you, but must win Sunday here at Chavez Ravine. Now, there are signs of being unlucky (not just injuries) rather than simply "bad" for Dodger Blue. The team has actually outscored its opponents this year (by all of one run) despite being seven games below .500. They've lost six of seven overall, not just the three in a row here, but I'll call for them to avoid the sweep as I simply can't see that result taking place. 

Cincinnati, who is still a league-worst 13-27 overall, has won five in a row. That right there should tell you what an awful start to the season it has been. They were the first team to make a change at manager (Bryan Price fired very quickly), but Jim Riggleman has hardly made a difference. The Reds have still allowed the second most runs in the National League (only Miami has allowed more) even after holding the Dodgers to just six total in the three games here. The newly acquired Matt Harvey (yes, him) gave his team four innings of one-hit ball last night in the latest surprise victory. Today, it's Luis Castillo on the mound. He begat the current win streak w/ a pretty solid effort last Tuesday against the Mets. He retired the first 14 batters he saw, but then seemed to hit "a wall," leaving after 5 2/3 innings and allowing two runs. Consider that even after that effort, Castillo still has a 6.47 ERA and 1.537 WHIP in eight starts this season.

Rich Hill will get the nod for the Dodgers and he needs to be better than he has been lately. But, perhaps facing someone other than Arizona is all the help Hill needs. Hill has faced the D'backs in each of his last two starts and been rocked both times. He spent considerable time on the DL between those two starts, so it could also have been a case where he was rusty his last time out. In his first two starts of the season (both against the Giants), Hill allowed just three runs in a total of 10 IP. He is 4-2 w/ a 3.80 ERA lifetime vs. the Reds. Perhaps the simple fact that this is a day game will help the Dodgers. Cincy is just 3-12 in such affairs this season. 8* LA Dodgers 

8* Boston (3:35 ET): It's the same Eastern Conference Finals as last year with the Cavs taking on the Celtics. There are two rather significant differences from last year's matchup, which saw Cleveland win - rather easily - in just five games. One is that this year Boston has the homecourt edge. Two is that Kyrie Irving won't be suiting up - for either side. The Celtics thought they had pulled off a real "coup" in acquiring Irving from the Cavs via trade this past offseason. But he's missed the entire postseason w/ an injury and won't be a factor here. That hasn't stopped Boston from advancing so far, as they needed only five games to eliminate previously red hot Philadelphia. Interestingly, both teams were pushed harder in the first round (Cleveland by Indiana and Boston by Milwaukee) w/ each series going seven games while they made quicker work of their respective second round opponents than expected.

Cleveland swept Toronto in the last round, an incredibly impressive performance considering the Raptors were the top seed and won 59 regular season games. While you can write off the Raptors as "choke artists" all you want (Cavs swept them in the 2nd round LY as well), there's no underselling the brilliance of LeBron James at this point. He's averaging 34.3 points, 9.4 rebounds, 9.0 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.0 blocks per game in the playoffs. But the big question here is what kind of help will he get? He got very little in the Indiana series before several players stepped up against Toronto. But the Celtics are a much better defensive team than the Raptors. They ranked #1 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. That's a far cry from the Cavaliers, who were 28th! 

Boston is a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS at home in the postseason. Incredibly, this will be the fourth time they will have been an underdog. It's pretty clear to me that this team has been wildly underrated in the wake of the Irving injury. They are 23-8 ATS as underdogs this season, including a perfect 10-0 ATS at home (9-1 SU). The Celtics finished the regular season w/ the best ATS record in the league. Contrast that w/ Cleveland, who was the WORST ATS team in the league and is still just 21-48 ATS as a favorite. Playing w/ three or more days rest, the Celtics are 4-1 SU/ATS while the Cavs are 0-3 SU/ATS. LeBron has been otherworldly, but I don't think that alone can be enough in Game 1. 8* Boston

8* Winnipeg (7:05 ET): I made the mistake of doubting the Jets in Game 7 at Nashville, but I don't think I'll be doing that again. Despite being relatively young and inexperienced, this team finished w/ the second most points in the league during the regular season and they just vanquished the President's Trophy winners (Nashville) on the road, mind you. I suspect that home ice advantage is going to be huge in this Western Conference Finals as arguably no two teams in the league get a bigger "boost" from their home crowds than the two participants here. Vegas has defied all the odds getting this far, setting a new standard for all expansion teams (in all sports) to try and live up to. But Winnipeg is 36-9-2 SU on home ice this year and I like them to take Game 1.

While Winnipeg is coming off an extremely tough series (where the road team won the final four games!), Vegas has been patiently waiting after finishing off San Jose in six games. They last played on Sunday. That long layoff could prove to be a detriment coming into this series as they'll have to "rediscover momentum." You really have to hand it to the Golden Knights for what they've done so far. They swept the Kings in the 1st round and have four shutout wins in these playoffs. But they've also had to win three times in overtime. This will be their first series w/o the home ice advantage as well and we know how great this team has played in Sin City this year. After a long layoff, I'm really interested to see how they respond as a road underdog. 

I would argue that both teams Winnipeg eliminated were stronger than either Vegas' opponent this postseason. Certainly Nashville was a tougher task than either Los Angeles or San Jose was for Vegas. Golden Knights' goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has been incredible to this point (.966 even strength save percentage), but can he keep it up against the deeper Jets? Winnipeg has seven players w/ multiple even strength goals and five w/ double-digit, all situation point totals, led by center Mark Scheifle. Their blue line is so deep that they still are playing three pairs of defensemen and for good reason. At the end of the day, Winnipeg averages 3.8 goals per game on home ice, the highest average in the league. I look for them to start this series out w/ a win. 8* Winnipeg

6* NY Yankees (1:05 ET): Oakland came in and surprising the Yanks on Friday, taking the series opener, 10-5 as big ML underdogs. I do not see the same thing occurring today. This is the first time since April 8th-10th that the Yankees have dropped B2B games. Previously, they'd won eight straight and 20 of the last 23 games. The A's have never found much success here in the Bronx as yday marked their first double-digit run effort here since 2007. Perhaps it was somewhat ironic that it was former teammate Sonny Gray who they roughed up on Friday for four home runs. Oakland is now .500 for the season, but has been outscored by 11 runs. The Yankees are tied w/ rival Boston for the best record in baseball and have a +60 run differential. 

Oakland had not been scoring prior to yday's big win. In fact, they'd been held to three runs or fewer in eight of nine games, including two or fewer in five straight. They'd totaled only five runs in the previous series, which saw them get swept at home by Houston. They scored more runs yday then they had the previous five games combined! I believe the quick turnaround favors the home team (early start today), specifically starter Domingo German, who looked fantastic in his big league debut last week. While he received a no-decision, German did blank Cleveland for six innings, allowing no hits and striking out nine! He retired 18 of the first 20 hitters he saw (two walks) and was the 1st pitcher since 1893 (!) to throw six hitless innings while striking out at least nine!

The A's have actually beaten the Yankees five straight times dating back to last season. But four of those wins were in Oakland. Unlike the A's, the Bronx Bombers have had little issue swinging the bat this season as they came into the series averaging an impressive 6.5 rpg at home. Save for Aaron Judge, some of the bats are starting to slow down, but I suspect that changes today. Oakland starter Andrew Triggs is off his best start of '18, but it also came against the lowly Orioles. Triggs has also alternated bad and good starts over his last four outings. The Yankees are 10-3 in day games this season, outscoring opponents by nearly three full runs per game. One would have to go all the way back to last August to find the last time this team lost three in a row. They win big Saturday! 6* NY Yankees

8* Tampa Bay (8:10 ET): The two division winners meet in the Eastern Conference Finals this year with the Lightning having the home ice edge over the Washington Capitals. Tampa Bay has gotten here by eliminating New Jersey and Boston, needing only five games to dispose of both. Doing that to the Bruins was especially impressive. The Capitals are in the Conference Finals for just the second time in franchise history (incredible!), the last time coming in 1998. Given the success of the franchise, there really is no underselling how shocking that is. It also speaks to their past playoff failures. They finally got by nemesis Pittsburgh in the second round (won series in 6 games), but you have to wonder if the emotional high of that accomplishment can't be matched here in Game 1. 

Tampa Bay has a hot goalie in Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has an even strength save percentage of .943 in these playoffs. In six of the 10 games, he's allowed 10 goals or fewer. Meanwhile, there is reason for concern w/ Washington goalie Braden Holtby, who has an .897 save percentage for the year away from home. This is the first series where the Caps do NOT have the home ice advantage. Holtby infamously did not start the team's first two playoff games, which were both losses to Columbus. But since he's come in, they've gone 8-2. Both teams have had plenty of rest coming into this series, so the fact the Capitals have played two more games in the playoffs shouldn't matter, at least initially. But the home ice will as TB is 34-11-2 SU here at Amelia Arena.

Depth is another concern here for the Caps as Nicklas Backstrom is listed as day to day w/ a back injury. While the team has plenty of firepower, the Lightning have more as they ranked ahead of the Caps in both overall scoring and on the power play during the regular season. In fact, the Lightning were the top goal scoring team in the league. That's why they finished w/ the top goal differential in all of the league at +60, outscoring opponents by three times the number the Caps did. It should also be noted that Washington has won three times in OT this postseason; TB has needed to do that only once. Seven of the Lightning's eight wins have come by at least two goals. I'll go w/ the better (and more trustworthy) team at home in Game 1. 8* Tampa Bay