8* Seton Hall (9:00 ET): So my own power rankings very much agree that Michigan is a top four team in the country. But those same rankings also LOVE Seton Hall, calling them a Top 10 team as well. So I’m going to go ahead and grab the points here in what is a rematch of the 1989 NCAA Title Game. They’ve only met one time since - eight months later - which was before current Wolverines HC Juwan Howard even showed up to play at his alma mater. Expect a great game here as Michigan should be on “upset alert.” 

Beating Yale may not seem like a big deal, but the way Seton Hall did it on Sunday was quite impressive. The Pirates crushed the Ivy League favorites, winning 80-44 as 11.5-point chalk. No one played more than 22 minutes as the Pirates dominated the glass (53-37 rebounding edge) and held Yale to 24.2% shooting. In both games this season, Seton Hall has held the opponent below 50 points and 30% shooting. This is a deep team that believes in itself. Jared Rhoden said they are “one of the best teams in the country” and I agree! 

Michigan had a closer than expected win over Buffalo in the season opener, 88-76, just barely missing out on covering the number. Then they routed Prairie View A&M (as expected) 77-49 as 23.5-point favorites. That game was played in D.C. over the weekend. While I respect the Wolverines, this is just too many points to be laying against an underrated Seton Hall team that I expect to make a lot of “noise” nationally. The Pirates are 36-16 ATS L52 as a road underdog. 8* Seton Hall

10* Charleston (8:30 ET): While the pollsters have North Carolina in the Top 20, I do not. The Tar Heels are off to a 2-0 SU start, but they’ve hardly been impressive in doing so, failing to cover the spread against both Loyola MD and Brown. Hubert Davis’ team is not playing good defense as they allowed Brown to score 87 points, including 50 in the first half! That game very much came down to the wire as UNC only led by three points in the final two minutes. Laying this many points with the Tar Heels in the first road game of the season seems like a bad idea. 

Charleston is 3-0. They too have a win over Loyola MD, theirs coming this past weekend by a score of 79-72. While the Cougars did not cover the spread (they were -9.5), they led the entire game and by as many as 17 points in the first half. This is a veteran team with four seniors accounting for 46% of the offensive production thus far. Through three games, the Cougars are averaging 90.3 PPG (2nd most among CAA teams) and that seems like a problem for a North Carolina team that isn’t playing good defense at the start of the season. 

The thing is, Charleston hasn’t even shot that well and they are still scoring a lot of points. Each of the last two games, the Cougars have shot worse than 40% from the field. North Carolina has shot better than 50% in each of its two games, yet still is 0-2 ATS. Both teams have first year head coaches. It remains to be seen how the unproven Davis can fill the shoes of the legendary Roy Williams in Chapel Hill. Meanwhile, Charleston hired Pat Kelsey away from Winthrop and he brings an up-tempo attack that should keep the road favorite on its heels. Take the points. 10* Charleston

8* Under Bowling Green/Miami (8:00 ET): Bowling Green games have followed an “odd” pattern in 2021. The first five games all went Under. At that point, the Falcons were also a perfect 5-0 ATS with a shocking upset win over Minnesota. But I then chose to go with the Over when they hosted Akron and that hit, starting what is now a streak of five straight Overs. BGSU has won just once in conference play. That was two weeks ago at Buffalo, 56-49, a game where they were 13.5-point dogs. Last week saw them lose 49-17 at home to Toledo, a spot where I successfully faded them as 10.5-point underdogs. 

Miami needs to win out in order to become bowl eligible. Assuming they win here (they are large favorites), that would set up a showdown next week with Kent State to determine the winner of the MAC East. So there’s still a lot for the RedHawks to be playing for at this juncture. The team is 4-0 SU here in Oxford this season after it thumped Buffalo 45-18 (as seven-point favorites) last week. The RedHawks have three losses by five points or less this year, so a case can be made that they are better than their record. 

While I don’t feel like laying the big number here, the chances of Bowling Green scoring a lot of points in this game seem remote. The Falcons were held under 200 total yards last week by Toledo. Take away that outlier effort against Buffalo two weeks ago and they haven’t scored more than 26 against any FBS opponent all season. Miami’s defense allows just 18.7 PPG at home and Ohio is the only opponent since the start of October to score more than 21 pts against them. I also don’t see the RedHawks coming close to matching their own point total from last week. The Under is 7-1 for Miami the L8 times they’ve been off a game where they scored 40+ points. 8* Under Bowling Green/Miami

10* Eastern Michigan (7:30 ET): I’m a little shocked by this spread. I have these teams rated pretty even in my own power rankings, so after factoring in that the game takes place in Ypsilanti, Eastern Michigan ought to be favored. Perhaps the number has something to do with the fact the Eagles were upset here at home last Tuesday, 34-26 by Ohio. They were six-point chalk for that game and it was their biggest loss (in terms of margin) in MAC play this season. The only time in 2021 that EMU has lost by more than one score was when they visited Wisconsin very early in the season. I’m taking the points on Tuesday. 

Western Michigan has failed to cover the number in four of its last five games, including three straight. But all they cared about last week was getting the victory over Akron. That made the Broncos (now 6-4 SU) bowl eligible. However, it was not an impressive win by any means as they were 26-point faves in Kalamazoo and the final score was only 46-40. Over the last five games, Western Michigan’s defense is giving up an average of 38.4 points per contest. Again, it is somewhat shocking to me to see them favored in the spot, let alone by this many points. 

The home team is on a 10-5 SU run in this all-Michigan MAC rivalry, although LY saw EMU go to Kalamazoo and win 53-42 as 13.5-point underdogs. The Eagles are now looking to make it three straight upset wins over Western Michigan while also hoping to avoid what would be a third straight loss at home this season. I’ve always been impressed by the job Chris Creighton has done here, turning around what had been a moribund program. Western Michigan has been a major disappointment in 2021, save for the win over Pitt, and gives up too many points to be favored like this on the road. 10* Eastern Michigan

8* Toledo (7:00 ET): One of the most impressive streaks in ALL of College Football has to be Ohio having not lost a MAC game by more than seven points since 2015! That streak continued last week when the Bobcats went on the road and upset Eastern Michigan, 34-26 as six-point underdogs. It was their second straight upset win as two weeks ago, right here in Peden Stadium, they beat rival Miami 35-33 as a seven-point dog. But despite the B2B upsets, it’s been a tough 1st year under Tim Albin in Athens. Ohio is just 3-7 SU and has no shot at bowl eligibility. 

Toledo, on the other hand, needs just one more win to become bowl eligible. With lowly Akron on the docket for next week, getting to six wins shouldn’t be a problem. But we’ve seen in the past how 6-win MAC teams have been left out of the postseason. So the Rockets are definitely going to want to handle their business tonight, just as they did last Wednesday when they blew out Bowling Green (on the road) 49-17 as 10.5-point chalk. That was their second straight game scoring 49 points. I laid the points with the Rockets @ BG and will do so again here. 

While it’s been six years since Ohio last lost a conference game by more than seven points, I think that streak is due to end. This Ohio team is just not as strong as it was for so many years under Frank Solich. These teams don’t play very often, with only two meetings since 2010. The Bobcats won both, so you have to figure Toledo HC Jason Candle will be hungry for his first win against this opponent. The Rockets have covered six of their last seven road games. Four of their five losses this season have been by a combined 11 points, so the SU record could be MUCH better. I like that the offense has gained over 1200 yards the L2 weeks and the defense (which allows just 18.8 PPG on the road) gives up only 3.6 yards per rush attempt. 8* Toledo

10* San Francisco (8:15 ET): The 49ers currently sit at 3-5 SU, but a win here could “save” their season. They face Jacksonville next week, so there is a decent chance the Niners could be back to .500 at the 10-game mark. But first things first, they do NEED to win tonight. They face a Rams team that they’ve defeated four straight times going back to the start of the 2019 season. What’s really interesting about this matchup is that San Francisco is one of three teams (Detroit & Philly are the others) that are still winless at home. The Rams are one of three teams (Cards, Pats) to still be perfect on the road. 

Both teams are also coming off frustrating losses. The Rams fell to the Titans 28-16 last Sunday night in what was their worst performance of the year. Despite outgaining Tennessee 347-194, LA was never really “in” the game as they trailed 21-3 at halftime. The game really swung on B2B Matt Stafford INT’s in the second quarter, one of which was returned for a TD (the other set Tenn up at the LA 2-yard line). Remember that the Titans didn’t have Derrick Henry. As for San Francisco, turnovers (-3) were also the culprit in their 31-17 loss last week to an Arizona team that was forced to start backup QB Colt McCoy. 

Even though both teams lost last week, the Rams are clearly the more “popular” side here as they are 8-2 SU. They also just signed Odell Beckham Jr. But Beckham is as overrated as it gets. I respect the Rams, who have been favored in every game this season, but keep in mind that the Niners have been favored in every game but one. They’ve obviously had the Rams’ number and three of the four wins the last two years have been as underdogs. This game is more important to the home team, who should at least be able to keep things within a field goal. 10* San Francisco

10* Boston (7:05 ET): This is a huge revenge game for the Celtics, who blew a 19-point lead here in Cleveland on Saturday night and lost 91-89. It was an absolutely shocking turn of events after the Cavs were held to just nine points in the first quarter and trailed for almost the entirety of the game. Said Cavs coach J.B. Bickerstaff, “There is no basketball reason why we should have won, but there was a collective spirit," "Momentum is a hell of a thing. When you start to ride that wave in either direction, it changes the game.” Now personally, I’m not a big believer in “momentum.” I expect Boston to get its revenge Monday. 

Cleveland is 9-5 SU and currently fourth in the Eastern Conference standings. Not sure anyone was expecting to see that. The Cavs came into the season with the fifth lowest projected win total in the league. The fact they are a league-best 10-3-1 ATS affirms how they have caught many, including the oddsmakers, by surprise. But at some point you have to expect this run will subside. The Cavs have been rather fortunate to win four games by three points or less this month. I still have them 22nd in the power rankings and remain unsold if they’ll even finish with a .500 record. 

 Cleveland is also missing some players, such as Lauri Markkanen, Lamar Stevens, Collin Sexton and Kevin Love. All of those players were out Saturday, making the 19-point rally seem all the more improbable. You’ve got to believe that Boston will shoot better than it did on Friday. I’ve still got them rated as the better team here - comfortably so. That means I’ve got no issue laying a short number in a revenge spot. They were up 19 on this team 48 hours ago. I’ve got all the confidence in the world that they’ll win here. 10* Boston

10* Penn State (7:00 ET): I was a little surprised to see this line open up so low. I know that Penn State is not exactly the most formidable Big 10 team, but they are certainly a lot better than UMass at this stage of the game. While the Nittany Lions failed to cover the spread in their opener, they still won by 16 (as a 17-point favorite). UMass won by a similar score in its season opener (77-60 over MD-Balt County) as a 10-point favorite, but then went to Yale and got crushed by 20 in a game they were favored to win. 

PSU has a new head coach for 2021-22. His name is Micah Shrewsberry, who was previously an assistant under Brad Stevens at both Butler and with the Celtics in the NBA. Shrewsberry inherits a fairly experienced squad, one that underperformed last year under an interim coach. (Former HC Pat Chambers was forced to resign last October due to conduct. I think the Nittany Lions are going to be an improved squad this year. They shot 51.7% against Youngstown State last Wednesday. 

UMass lost its leading scorer from LY to the transfer portal. So they figure to take a step back. COVID-19 wreaked havoc on the Minutemen’s schedule in 2020-21, so playing three games in a week is something they haven’t done in quite some time. They were shredded by Yale, giving up 91 points. It won’t be any easier here against an opponent that shot well in its first game and comes in with more rest. Lay the points. 10* Penn State

8* Las Vegas (8:20 ET): People keep waiting for Kansas City to get going. But what if it never happens? The Chiefs did win last week, but it was “ugly” (13-7 over the Rodgers-less Packers) and they failed to cover the spread … AGAIN. Over their last 20 games (including playoffs), KC is now a money-burning 4-16 ATS. They are 0-6 ATS this season against teams with winning records. With the Raiders ranked higher in my personal power ratings, I will definitely be taking the points on Sunday Night Football. 

Las Vegas fell to 5-3 SU on the year with a surprising loss to the Giants last week. Coming out of a bye, that was certainly not the result the Silver and Black was looking for. They did outgain the G-Men 403-247, but were undone by three turnovers, one of which was an interception returned for a touchdown. That “pick-six” was the difference in the game. Last week was the “dreaded” 1 PM ET start for the Raiders, a “West Coast” team. I expect them to play much better this week at home, where they are 3-1 SU. 

At the start of the season, everyone was rightly pointing to the Chiefs’ defense as the reason for their surprisingly poor record. They allowed 30+ points each of the first five games. But what about the offense? It’s now three straight games (and four of five) that Patrick Mahomes and company have scored 20 points or less. They were actually outgained by Green Bay last Sunday, 301-237. This team is a mess right now. I just think that the wrong team is favored in this AFC West matchup. 8* Las Vegas

10* Over Warriors/Hornets (7:05 ET): For weeks now, I’ve been saying that while the Warriors were clearly ascending back to the top of the NBA pecking order, they would not again reach the heights of their previous championship teams. Well, maybe we need to revisit that thought. Because I’ve got Golden State #1 in my power ratings right now. They’ve won seven straight games coming into Sunday and covered the spread in all seven. 

Charlotte is a team that will be looking to pull a third consecutive upset tonight. Their last two games have seen them defeat Memphis (as a 4.5 point dog) and New York (as a 2.5 point dog). Prior to those two upset wins, the Hornets did drop five in a row - both SU and ATS. They’re now back at .500, but if I was a betting man (and I am), I’d predict them to finish with a worse record than last year. 

These teams did meet earlier this month and the Warriors won 114-92. It was an awful shooting night for the Hornets as they made just 37.4% of their FG attempts, including only 10 of 36 from three-point range. Expect them to shoot better tonight as they are at home. The team’s scoring average jumps to 118.2 PPG here in Charlotte. As for Golden State, who has played only three road games so far, they should have no difficulty scoring on what is the league’s 30th ranked scoring defense (116.0 PPG allowed). As a reminder, there are only 30 teams in the league. 10* Over Warriors/Hornets

10* Seattle (4:25 ET): With Russell Wilson back in the fold, I’m looking for the Seahawks to outscore Aaron Rodgers and the Packers this week. Yes, Rodgers did clear protocol on Saturday and thus is able to play here. So these teams should look much different than the last time we saw them. Now for Seattle, they are certainly hoping for a result similar to what they had vs. Jacksonville two weeks ago. With Geno Smith at the helm, they won that game 31-7. Green Bay is looking to bounce back from last week’s ugly 13-7 loss to the Chiefs where they were forced to start Jordan Love at QB. 

Though Seattle comes into this game with a 3-5 SU record, they actually have a positive point differential (+12) that’s not far off from Green Bay (who is only +19 despite being 7-2 SU). Once again, I do not feel the Packers are as good as their record shows, something I was adamant about two years ago with them. It’s pretty remarkable that the Pack have covered eight consecutive games, though it should be pointed out that three of their wins were by a field goal or less. 

The fact that the Seahawks are off a bye and that Rodgers has had no actual practice time this week is a huge advantage for the road dog this week. I firmly believe that GB’s ATS win streak - which is not only the franchise’s longest in the Super Bowl era, but also tied for the longest in the entire NFL the L3 seasons - is due to end. Wilson has thrived as a dog, going 24-12-1 ATS and winning half of the games outright. When getting four or more points, he’s 10-1 ATS and has won outright seven times. This game sets up beautifully for Seattle against a GB team that’s due to lose. Take the points. 10* Seattle

9* Over Seahawks/Packers (4:25 ET): With Russell Wilson back in the fold, I’m looking for the Seahawks to outscore Aaron Rodgers and the Packers this week. Yes, Rodgers did clear protocol on Saturday and thus is able to play here. So these teams should look much different than the last time we saw them. Now for Seattle, they are certainly hoping for a result similar to what they had vs. Jacksonville two weeks ago. With Geno Smith at the helm, they won that game 31-7. Green Bay is looking to bounce back from last week’s ugly 13-7 loss to the Chiefs where they were forced to start Jordan Love at QB. 

I know that they were facing the Jaguars, but Seattle scoring 31 points without Wilson is impressive. In three of the four games this year that Wilson has finished, the Seahawks have put up 28 or more points. So you should expect them to “carry their weight” with this Over play. I also have some concerns about their defense, which gives up more than 400 YPG and was historically bad the first five weeks of the season.

Rodgers didn’t practice all week, but the Packers have scored at least 24 points in each of his last seven starts. They average 28.7 PPG at home. Green Bay has gone Under in six straight games, but this matchup has “shootout” written all over it. The Over is 7-3 in the Packers last 10 games after a loss. The last two times that Rodgers and Wilson have met, their teams combined to score 51 total points. I expect even more than that here. 9* Over Seahawks/Packers

8* San Antonio (3:30 ET): The Spurs are a better team than the Lakers right now, even though they have an inferior WL record. Though 4-8 SU, San Antonio has actually scored more points than what they’ve allowed this season. The Lakers, despite a winning SU record (7-6) can’t say that. They have a -2.3 PPG differential. Something else the Lakers can’t say (right now) is that they have a healthy LeBron James. Friday night saw them lose to the T’wolves by 24 points here at home. 

San Antonio is also off a loss as they fell to Dallas by a score of 123-109. The loss dropped them to 0-4 SU off a win this season. They’ve also failed to cover the spread each of the last three times they’ve been off a win. But when off a loss, as they are here, the Spurs tend to play better. They’re a 5-0 ATS off their previous five losses and this includes a 136-117 win over OKC earlier this week. The Spurs had 16 fewer field goal attempts than the Mavs on Friday. That kind of discrepancy should not exist in this afternoon’s game. 

The Lakers dropped to 3-4 SU without James with Friday’s loss to Minnesota. They were outscored 40-12 in a decisive third quarter. This is a situation where it looks like the public is lining up to bet the favorite, but the lack of line movement is notable. San Antonio has been the better of these two teams on a per possession basis this year. The Spurs also have revenge for a four-point loss at home last month. The road team has won outright the L4 times these teams have met. Take the points. 8* San Antonio

9* Under Bills/Jets (1:00 ET): The last five Jets’ games have all gone Over the total. That seems odd given that the Flyboys are 27th in the league in scoring at just 18.0 points per game. But they’ve put up 30+ points in B2B games, including a shocking win over Cincinnati two weeks ago. They’d scored 14 or fewer points in four of the first six games. Now the defense has been shredded the L3 games as it’s given up a total of 130 points! There hasn’t been a single game all year where the Jets held an opponent under 24 points. 

Now you would think that this figures to be another “long day at the office” for the Jets defense as the Bills pay a visit to MetLife Stadium. However, Buffalo didn’t even get in the end zone last week in an absolutely shocking 9-6 loss to the Jaguars. While I am banking on Josh Allen and company bouncing back here, the Bills defense should also handle its business. Though no one was talking about it after the loss to the Jags, the defense has now allowed 11 points or fewer four times in 2021. 

Since 2019, Buffalo is 9-1 Under when off a SU loss. That includes 5-0 after their last five losses. A banged up offensive line may mean they won’t score as many points as you think. As for the Jets offense, I know that backup QB Mike White has captured the hearts and minds of the fanbase, but consider me still skeptical. The Bills haven’t allowed any Jets player to run for 100 yards since 2016. Expect that streak to continue here. This is the highest O/U line in any Jets’ game this season. 9* Under Bills/Jets

8* Texas (10:30 ET): We’ve got ourselves a top five matchup in College Basketball in the very first week of the season. Gonzaga, whose only loss since the start of last year came in the National Championship Game (to Baylor), will host Texas. The Zags - not surprisingly - entered 2021-22 as the top ranked team in the country yet again. They’ve brought in some exciting newcomers to help fill the void left by a lot of departing talent. But this Texas team is very much “for real” as 1st year HC Chris Beard brought in a ridiculous amount of talent to Austin. I’m taking the points in this one. 

Texas won its season opener 92-48 over Houston Baptist. That the Longhorns won was obviously not a surprise, but it is impressive that they covered the huge 37.5 point spread. Beard has SEVEN transfers with D-I experience and most came from “name” schools. Beard was obviously very successful at Texas Tech and I expect similar results here at his alma mater. Texas shot 62% from the field in its opening game, including 13 of 22 from three-point range. This figures to be one of the few times they are underdogs in a game this season. 

Gonzaga led the country in scoring last year and will probably be one of the most prolific scoring teams again in 2021-22. But, it may take time for this team to get on the same page. HC Mark Few missed the opener as he was serving a one-game suspension for DUI. The Zags still won comfortably without their coach - 97-63 over Dixie State - but did not cover the 39.5 point spread. I think there’s a real shot the Bulldogs may LOSE this game (outright!) so taking the points is a “no brainer” to me. Texas is 20-8 ATS its L28 games as a road underdog. 8* Texas

8* TCU (8:00 ET): It is my view that Oklahoma State has drastically overachieved here in 2021. But there’s no denying the Pokes looked rather impressive last week in a 24-3 win at Morgantown (West Virginia). They held the Mountaineers not only out of the end zone, but to just 133 yards total! Still though, my power ratings are a little less bullish on them than are the pollsters. The fact they’ve covered the spread in seven consecutive games should tell you that the oddsmakers have also underestimated the Cowboys. But now we get them laying double digits for just the second time in Big 12 action. 

TCU also was impressive last week in pulling a 30-28 upset of #12 Baylor. It was an emotional win for the Horned Frogs in their first game without long-time HC Gary Patterson. The school’s decision to part ways with Patterson (said to be “mutual”) is still a bit shocking to me, but if last week was any indication, the team seems to be a bit inspired. Making his first career start, TCU QB Chandler Morris threw for 461 yards on a defense that had been fairly stingy for most of this season. TCU joins Oklahoma State as the only teams to defeat Baylor in 2021. Their attention now turns to trying to win two of their final three games (in order to become bowl eligible). 

The only other time that OSU was asked to lay double digits in a conference game was when they faced Kansas. The Jayhawks are so far below the rest of the Big 12 that they don’t even really “count.” What we do know is that the Cowboys have had numerous come from behind victories this year with the last two weeks marking their only wins by more than 10 points. I’m definitely grabbing the points here as TCU played inspired ball last week and the underdog has covered in each of the previous six TCU-OK State meetings. 8* TCU

9* Over Arizona State/Washington (7:00 ET): There are some streaks on the line in this one. If you can believe this, Arizona State has covered the spread every time in the L10 meetings with Washington. The Sun Devils have won eight of those games straight up, though they did lose the last one, 27-20 as an 18.5-point pup back in 2018. But I will instead be focusing on UW’s 5-0 Under run coming into this game. That’s resulted in a VERY low total for this week and I’m choosing to go Over here. 

There is some controversy here on the Washington sideline as they will be without HC Jimmy Lake, who has been suspended for a week due to an altercation with a player last week. That 26-16 loss to Oregon also cost OC John Donovan his job and it’s easy to see why as the Huskies gained just 166 total yards. But I expect the home team to play hard for its interim coach this week and even have some surprising success on the offensive side of the ball. It won’t take much to help send this one Over.

Before holding USC to just 16 points last week, ASU had given up 69 points in its previous two games. While the Sun Devils aren’t likely to give up 30+ this week, we don’t need them to. I say that because last week, they gained 427 yards on offense, 282 of those coming on the road. This is an offense that would have a lot more points to its name if not for eight turnovers the last two games.  They have averaged more than 400 YPG the last three weeks. Five of the Sun Devils’ last six games have seen 47+ total points scored. 9* Over Arizona State/Washington

10* Ben Rothwell (5:40 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Heavyweight Division. Rothwell is 39-13 overall in his MMA career (including 9-7 in the UFC) while his opponent, Marcos Rogerio de Lima, has an 18-7-1 overall record and is 7-5 in the UFC. My prediction is that Rothwell will be the one to get his hand raised in this one. 

A 20-year veteran of the sport, Rothwell saw his career nearly derailed with multiple failed drug tests. He did not fight for nearly three years (April 2016 to March 2019). But he seems to have gotten over the “rough patch” of his career by winning three of his last four fights, including the last one. He defeated Chris Barnett back in May via submission in the second round. Something to note is that Rothwell has not been “stopped” in a fight (submitted or knocked out) since 2013. 

Most of de Lima’s fights typically end quickly, but the last one saw him earn a decision victory over Maurice Green in May. Going all the way back to 2015, de Lima has alternated wins and losses. He’s 5-5 his L10 fights, never winning or losing two in a row. I don’t like this matchup for de Lima as he won’t be able to knock out Rothwell nor will he be able to wrestle him to the ground. Rothwell is larger and more durable. De Lima spent most of his UFC career fighting down at Light Heavyweight. This is a good matchup for the favorite. 10* Ben Rothwell

10* Maryland (4:00 ET): Outside of games where I have made a wager, I rarely have a “rooting” interest. But with all due respect to those in East Lansing, I was smirking a bit when Michigan State suffered its first loss of the season last week, 40-29 at Purdue. In no way, shape or form did I believe that the Spartans were actually the third best team in the country. My own power ratings don’t have them in the Top 20. Sparty has caught some fortunate breaks in 2021, specifically the Michigan game, which was one of three wins by five points or fewer this season. With them coming off their 1st loss, I’ll fade. 

Now Maryland would seem to need all the points they can get. The Terrapins have failed to cover the spread in five straight games and suffered four blowout losses during this stretch. They did defeat Indiana 38-35 as a 3.5-point home favorite two weeks ago. Last week was a 31-14 loss to Penn State in College Park. It should be pointed out that the Terps’ last four losses were all to ranked teams. I obviously realize that MSU is also a “ranked team,” but I also think they are more vulnerable than most recent Maryland opponents. 

It’s not just that Michigan State is off its first loss, they also have their biggest game of the year (at Ohio State) on deck next week. So it’s a classic sandwich game. Maryland is not ready to “throw in the towel” by any means as they’re still trying to become bowl eligible (need one more win). They’ve got QB Taulia Tagovailoa, who is second in the Big 10 in passing yards and completion percentage. The MSU defense just gave up 536 yards passing last week. Sparty is also 3-11 ATS as a double digit favorite (four outright losses) since 2018. Take the points here. 10* Maryland

9* Over UL Lafayette/Troy (3:30 ET): So I tried the Over with ULL last Thursday and was unsuccessful. Really, it was never close as the Ragin Cajuns had to come from behind to defeat Georgia State (at home) 21-17. The total was 53.5. But this offense is averaging quite a bit of yardage for a team that’s gone Under in five straight. The last three games in particular have seen Louisiana move the ball effectively (467 YPG). This is the lowest O/U line of the season for the Sun Belt leaders. 

Looking to remain perfect in conference play, ULL travels to Troy this week. Their hosts have averaged more than 29 PPG in the L4 games, so they can score. Troy’s last three games have all gone Over and this is one of their lowest O/U lines of the season. It’s not THE lowest (as it is with ULL), but it’s poised to close as the 2nd lowest, only ahead of a 43-point total when they traveled to face South Carolina. The Trojans’ offense should benefit from the fact Louisiana’s defense gives up 25.8 PPG on the road, nearly double what they allow at home. 

Louisiana turned it over on downs - twice - inside the Georgia State 10-yard line last week, so they easily could have scored more points. Troy put up all 31 of its points last week in the first half, so they can definitely score in bunches. The total the last time these teams met (2019) was 74.5! So it’s far cry from that, two seasons later. I just think it’s time for an Over to hit in a ULL game and the Over is 4-1 in Troy’s last five games vs. teams that have winning records. 9* Over UL Lafayette/Troy

9* Southern Miss (3:30 ET): So at 1-8 SU, the Golden Eagles are obviously having a terrible season. Perhaps even more embarrassing is their 1-8 ATS record. The Golden Eagles have now failed to cover seven in a row - also 0-7 SU - since picking up their lone win of the season (37-0 against FCS Grambling). But they did have an early 14-0 lead last week against North Texas. Not covering there was pretty brutal, though I’m saying that as someone who took the points. Could it finally be Southern Miss’ time to cash a ticket this week? 

This matchup with #23 UTSA reminds me a lot of a winning bet I had last week with Missouri (plus the points) against Georgia. Like Southern Miss here, Mizzou was on a ridiculous ATS losing skid (8 games!) and getting a ton of points (almost 40!). They finally picked up a cover despite losing 43-6. Now Southern Miss isn’t getting quite as many points as Mizzou was. But UTSA also isn’t Georgia. The Roadrunners are undefeated (9-0 SU), but that’s where the comparisons with UGA end. 

This is very much unprecedented territory for the UTSA program. They are off a big win over what had been a hot UTEP team and have a big home game vs. UAB on deck. The Roadrunners could certainly be excused for “overlooking” Southern Miss. I think they will, at least enough for the underdogs to stay within the number. UTSA has been a covering machine in 2021 (8-1 ATS), but this is obviously the largest spread they’ve faced all season. 9* Southern Miss

10* Atlanta (9:05 ET): Well, I guess I’m chasing the Hawks, who are 0-5 ATS in their last five games (also 0-5 SU) and a mind-numbing 0-8 ATS on the road this season. Remember that this is a team that made it to the Conference Finals last season. The road-heavy schedule to start the season seems to have taken a toll, but I remain a believer that the Hawks can bounce back tonight in Denver. Four of the Nuggets’ last six games have been decided by three points or less and they’ve been fortunate to win three of those. 

Now I took the Hawks plus the points in each of their two previous games. Those plays obviously failed to come through as they lost to Utah and Golden State by a combined 26 points. With the benefit of hindsight, I was probably being a bit stubborn in thinking Atlanta would keep up with the two best teams in the NBA right now. This road trip started with a four-point loss in Phoenix, so the Hawks have had to play four of the West’s top teams. But of the four, Denver might be the weakest.

The Nuggets are averaging only 101.8 PPG thus far. They did just win, 101-98 against Indiana, without Nikola Jokic (who was suspended). Jokic will be back tonight, but Michael Porter Jr is expected to miss a third straight game due to a sore back. I don’t think Denver can count on another career-night from Zeke Nnaji, who scored 19 against the Pacers. Atlanta could be getting back both Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter tonight. That would be a boost. But the bottom line is that I just can’t see the Hawks failing to cover ANOTHER road game. Take the points here as Denver has only covered one of the last six times it has been favored. 10* Atlanta

8* UL Lafayette (8:00 ET): The spread has jumped the fence for this matchup. Louisiana now finds itself favored, on the road, after beating West Florida (non-board team) 81-47 on Tuesday. Southern Miss won in similar fashion against a lackluster opponent (William Carey), 81-67. It’s interesting that the line has flipped, which may have something to do with the fact the Ragin Cajuns are looking to end a four-game losing streak to Southern Miss. I think the line move is justified and will back the visitors in this one. 

Louisiana never trailed against West Florida as they jumped out to a 17-4 lead after six minutes. The lead grew to as large as 42 in the second half. While it was not a formidable opponent that they were up against, the Ragin Cajuns winning in blowout fashion seems a little more impressive when you consider they made only 8 of 29 three-point attempts and went 5 of 11 from the free throw line. I expect those numbers to go way up tonight. Eight players scored at least seven points, so this is a deep team. 

Southern Miss also had a big second half lead on Tuesday, but the difference between them and Louisiana is that they could not maintain it. The Golden Eagles are not that deep as five players combined to score all but five of their points in the opener. It was a 30-point night from Tae Hardy, which probably can’t be counted on here. My power rankings call Louisiana the better team here, so this looks to be a simple case of the oddsmakers setting a bad line. Let’s take advantage of that mistake. 8* UL Lafayette

10* Over Northern Illinois/Indiana (7:00 ET): Both teams started their respective 2021-22 seasons with an Under. Now, the fact Northern Illinois’ first game stayed Under was NOT the biggest takeaway, as the Huskies pulled a HUGE upset over Washington, winning 71-64 as 20-point underdogs. Indiana won much closer than expected against Eastern Michigan, 68-62 as 24.5-point favorites. 

The Hoosiers were up by 20 in the second half, but quickly let that lead slip away and found themselves ahead by just one point with 2:46 to go. I know there are some concerns about “offensive consistency” under new HC Mike Woodson, but you’ve got to expect IU will shoot better from three-point range tonight compared to the 4 of 24 effort we saw in the opener. It’s the defense that I think is likely to regress on Friday. The Hoosiers held Eastern Michigan to a 31.3 FG% and without a field goal for the first 7 ½ minutes of the game. 

Tonight’s MAC opponent shot a blistering 52.3% from behind the arc in its upset win in Seattle. Now, will they match that number tonight in Bloomington? Probably not. But they also aren’t going to watch their opponent go 3 for 18 from behind the arc like Washington did. This is a lower O/U than either team faced in its respective opener. Indiana had previously been 8-1 to the Over against MAC teams. They’ve gone Under their last five games overall, dating back to the end of last season. That streak ends here. 10* Over Northern Illinois/Indiana

8* Cincinnati (6:00 ET): #5 Cincinnati is very much in play to become the first non P5 school to make the College Football Playoff. Now in order to make the CFP, they obviously need to handle their own business (i.e. win out) and earn some “style points'' along the way. If they do that and (at least) one of the three one-loss teams ahead of them (Alabama, Oregon & Ohio State) loses again, then the Bearcats just might end up in the top four. But after a few close calls (against Navy, Tulane and Tulsa) they could desperately use a “blowout win” in front of a national TV audience here. I believe this Friday’s game against USF (on ESPN2) affords the Bearcats the perfect opportunity to deliver just the kind of win they need. 

USF is not a good team. The Bulls come into Friday with a 2-7 SU record and that’s after going 1-8 SU last season. Over the last 22 games, they have just ONE win against a FBS opponent and that was Temple back on Oct 23rd. That win also snapped a 13-game losing streak in conference play. Now clearly I’m taking the SU result of this game for granted. It boils down to whether or not Cincy can win by more than three scores. The three top teams that USF has faced thus far - NC State, Florida and SMU - have all beaten the Bulls by 22 or more points. Cincy is obviously the highest ranked USF opponent to date. 

So, yes, I do believe the Bearcats will win big. I know each of the last three games have been competitive going into the 4Q. I even took Tulane plus the points a few weeks ago. But USF is the weakest opponent that Cincy will have faced in a LONG time. Given the questioning of their current ranking, the Bearcats can ill-afford yet another close call. They are 6-0 ATS their L6 Friday games including a 52-3 win over Temple earlier this season where I laid the points and got the cover. USF just allowed a season-high 54 points last week. 8* Cincinnati

10* Miami (8:20 ET): The Dolphins got me last week, covering the spread in a 17-9 win over the Texans. In my analysis for that game, I admitted that it was a bit risky to go with Houston, even though Miami came in with the same 1-7 SU record. For what it’s worth, the Texans did have their chance to cover, but elected to kick a field goal (down 11) rather than go for a TD at the three-yard line. But that’s “water under the bridge” now. It’s a new week and the Dolphins are hosting Baltimore Thursday night. My recommendation here is to take the points. 

You might be a little shocked by that, given my decision to fade Miami last week against a lowly team like the Texans. But the ‘Fins are obviously not favored in this game and there can be no denying that Baltimore has been “living dangerously” this season. Four of the Ravens six victories have been by six points or less, two of them requiring overtime. Last week saw them battle back from a 14-point deficit in the 2H to beat Minnesota 34-31 in OT. While the Ravens held the edge in total yards in that game, 500-318, that’s a little misleading in that they ran 37 more plays than the Vikings. John Harbaugh’s team was actually outgained on a per play basis by Minnesota. 

As mentioned above, last week wasn’t the first close call Baltimore has pulled out this season. The last time they played in primetime, they were down 16 with just over 10 minutes to go against Indianapolis. They won that game in OT as well. Don’t forget about when they needed a 66-yard FG to beat Detroit or a late fumble to win by 1 against KC (a game the Ravens led for only 3:14). Another thing to consider here is that the Ravens are playing on the road for the first time in over a month. Jacoby Brissett possibly starting again for Miami is a non-issue for me as he’s already proven he’s no downgrade from Tua. 10* Miami 

analysis soon

8* Maryland (6:30 ET): The Terrapins are ranked #21 in the country at the start of the new College Basketball season. They opened the season with a fairly comfortable 83-69 win over Quinnipiac on Tuesday. Though they did not cover the large 23.5-point spread in that game, they were up big most of the way. It was 41-25 at halftime and the lead grew to as big as 25 points in the second half. Quinnipiac went on a 9-2 run over the final four minutes to steal the cover though. While that’s always a concern when laying a big number, expect the Terps to leave with the cash tonight against George Washington. 

GW has a LOT of new faces entering the 2021-22 season. There are NINE new transfers on the squad, more than any other team in the country. Only ONE player is left from last season, the first under HC Jamion Christian. So I expect there to be lots of “growing pains” for the Colonials early on. They barely snuck by St. Francis (PA) on Tuesday, winning only 75-72 as seven-point chalk. That’s despite the fact St. Francis shot only 1 of 9 from three-point range in the game. It’s obviously a big step up in class for GW here tonight and I don’t think they’re ready for it.

Maryland has plenty of size, which should give GW all sorts of problems in this one. The Terrapins also have plenty of depth. “We have seven starters,” said HC Mark Turgeon after Tuesday’s season opening win. GW was the worst defensive team in the Atlantic 10 a season ago and figures to struggle at that end of the floor yet again as all the new pieces try and come together. The Colonials have covered just one of their last five games as a road dog of 12.5 or more points. That trend continues in this one. 8* Maryland

10* Minnesota (10:05 ET): The T’wolves were extremely unfortunate not to cover the spread Monday in Memphis. First off, they led by 16 points in the fourth quarter. After blowing the entirety of that lead, they were still “in the money” (as 4.5-point underdogs) when Karl-Anthony Towns decided to hit a 39-foot heave at the end of regulation to tie the game up. You can guess what came next. Minnesota lost by seven in overtime. 

Tonight’s assignment in Golden State may look like a tough one for the T’wolves, but I’m banking on them at least being able to cover the spread here. Now I know that the Warriors are 9-1 SU and have yet to be beaten in regulation. (Their only loss came in OT against Memphis). But the Dubs have been feasting on some bad teams recently. While Minnesota’s SU record is only 3-6, they’ve only been outscored by 4.1 PPG. 

In the last two games, Minnesota has held leads of 20 and 16 points, yet is somehow 0-2 ATS. Steph Curry had 50 points in Golden State’s last game, a performance he isn’t about to duplicate here. Interestingly enough, the Warriors were outscored in three of the four quarters by Atlanta. They had one big quarter (third) where they outscored the Hawks 41-20. That doesn’t seem sustainable to me? 10* Minnesota

8* Idaho (9:00 ET): So this spread appears to be WAY off as my own power ratings say the home team should be slightly favored. Long Beach State isn’t even a top 300 team, so the idea of them laying the points (especially this many) on the road seems dicey at best. The Beach were a 6-12 SU team last season and missed a ton of action due to COVID-19. Once a proud program, LBSU has now had five consecutive losing seasons under HC Dan Monson. 

Now I’m well aware that Idaho went 1-21 SU last year. That’s obviously really bad. The top two scorers from LY are gone, but it’s not like they made much of a difference. I understand that people are going to look at the Vandals’ 2020-21 record and give them no shot here. But this team is going to be better this season. HC Zac Claus knows that this is one the more winnable games for his team. 

Again, I’m going to put faith in my power rankings, which basically call this a ‘pick em type game. LBSU may be looking forward to a game with UCLA over the weekend. For Idaho, this game will have their full attention. The Vandals did end last season on a 3-0 ATS run. They had five losses by six points or less. Expect them to be competitive in this first game of the season. 8* Idaho

8* Charlotte (8:05 ET): The Hornets are 0-5 SU/ATS in November and just 2-7 SU/ATS their last nine games overall. Tonight marks the end of a five-game road trip that has seen them lose three times by double digits. But after only losing by three (in overtime) at the Lakers the other night, Charlotte should finally break through here. 

Memphis is also off an overtime game, although they were victorious, 125-118 over Minnesota. The Grizzlies were very lucky to win that game, let alone cover the point spread. They trailed by as many as 16 in the fourth quarter. Had the Timberwolves’ Karl-Anthony Towns not made a 39-foot heave at the end of regulation, then the Grizz would NOT have covered the 4.5-point spread. But thanks to the extra five minutes they did and anyone who laid the points in that game should have felt very lucky to cash a winning ticket. 

That win over the T’wolves was just the third game Memphis was favored to win all season. It was the first time they covered as favorites since the season opener vs. Cleveland. Prior to defeating the T’wolves, the Grizzlies had lost 115-87 at Washington. In addition to the OT win on Monday, they have two other wins this season by three points or less. I think the Grizz are a good team to fade as chalk right now, especially with Charlotte being so desperate for a win. 8* Charlotte

8* Under Kent State/Central Michigan (8:00 ET): Kent State is coming off a 52-47 win over Northern Illinois, a game where both teams gained more than 660 total yards. Then you’ve got Central Michigan, who is off a 42-30 win at Western Michigan. Looking at those two scores and deciding to go with the Under here may seem a bit crazy, but there were things that happened in last week’s games that aren’t about to be repeated. This is also a very high O/U line, the highest for either team this season. 

Kent State, who leads the MAC East with a 4-1 SU conference record, used a 31-point second quarter to defeat Northern Illinois last week. They were actually behind 7-0 after the first. But then came big play after big play. None of the Golden Flashes’ five scoring drives in the 2Q lasted longer than 75 seconds. That is insane. A team that averages only 19.6 PPG on the road isn’t about to do that again this week. They are facing a defense that allows just 22.3 PPG at home this season. 

The difference in Central Michigan’s 42-30 win last week was the Chippewas returning TWO punts for touchdowns. Just like Kent State’s second quarter performance from last week, multiple special teams touchdowns is not something you can expect on a week by week basis. The Chips have played two straight high scoring games, but before that none of their games this season had seen more than 70 total points scored. Similarly, the Over is 5-0 the L5 meetings between these teams, but none of the last four have seen more than 65 total points scored. Take advantage of an inflated number here. 8* Under Kent State/Central Michigan

10* Toledo (7:00 ET): Toledo outgained Eastern Michigan 672-490 last week, but turned the ball over three times and thus lost the game 52-49 as nine-point favorites. Each of the last three times the Rockets have been favored, they have lost the game on the field. They have four outright losses as chalk this season, leaving them at 4-5 SU overall, which has to be considered a massive disappointment. But I like them to get back on track tonight against an opponent they have historically dominated. Lay the points. 

The most shocking thing about last week’s loss is how many points (52) and yards (490) Toledo allowed. They came into the contest vs. Eastern Michigan with the MAC’s top scoring defense (18.3 PPG allowed) and were second in fewest yards allowed (326.9) per game. Now I did take the Over (easy winner), noting EMU is one of the MAC’s better offensive teams. But the same cannot be said for this week’s opponent, Bowling Green, The Falcons are just 3-6 SU overall and averaging 23.6 PPG. 

Now BG is off a 56-44 upset of Buffalo last week where they were 14.5 point underdogs. But the Falcons were actually outgained 499-484 and had 25 fewer first downs! While 7-2 ATS, last week was just the third win for Bowling Green this season. It was their first win in conference play and only the second against a FBS opponent. As I alluded to above, Toledo has had BG’s number in the past. They’ve won 10 of the last 11 meetings including 38-3 last season. I look for the road favorite to assert its dominance in this one. 10* Toledo

10* Portland State (10:30 ET): Oregon State was an Elite Eight team last March. The Beavers, as a 12-seed, shockingly made it to the end of the NCAA Tournament’s second weekend before bowing out at the hands of Houston. They were also one of the country’s best ATS teams, finishing the year 23-8-1 at the betting window. That’s one of the reasons I’ll be looking to fade them in the 2021-22 season opener. Another is that they have seven first-year scholarship players and nine newcomers overall. 

Portland State was not really a “player” in the Big Sky Conference last year, finishing eighth in the 11-team league and making a first round exit in the Conference Tournament. The Vikings have a new head coach entering this year in Jase Coburn. While he brought in seven transfers, Coburn also has the benefit of lots of returning experience. There are eight players back from last season, four of whom started 10 or more games. I expect PSU to be much improved. 

Though Oregon State would go on to win the Pac 12 Tournament last season, they are pegged for just a fourth place finish here in 2021-22. Had they not made the run in the Conf Tourney, the Beavers would not have even made the Big Dance. Their Elite Eight appearance makes them an early season target. Portland State played the Beavers tough last season, only losing by five here in Corvallis as a 13-point underdog. OSU closing LY on a 14-1 ATS run (underdog in most games) was pretty ridiculous and I just have to fade them here. 10* Portland State

8* Portland (10:05 ET): This is an early season rubber match between the Trail Blazers & Clippers. These teams have taken turns beating each other, each winning on their own floor in blowout fashion. First it was the Clippers prevailing 116-86 here at Staples Center. Then it was the Blazers turn to return the favor with a 111-92 win several days later. I had the Blazers in that rematch and will go with them again here, plus the points. I know they are 0-4 SU/ATS on the road, but coming off B2B wins at home, I think they’re ready to end that particular losing streak. 

Portland has been favored in every game but one so far. That one exception was the previous game here vs. the Clippers. So unless they’ve been facing the Clips on the road, the Blazers have been favored every time out. That makes their 5-5 SU overall record seem like a disappointment. But, as alluded to above, things have begun to take a turn for the better. Damian Lillard made 6 of 15 3PA in Saturday’s 105-90 win over the Lakers. That game was a blowout most of the way with the Blazers leading by 30+ in the third quarter. That followed a win, 110-106 over Indiana, where *I* cashed them. 

The Clippers have won four in a row, the last three all coming by double digits. But they’ve been beating up on bad teams. Two of the wins were against Minnesota, another vs. Oklahoma City and then Sunday required a 22-0 run in the 4Q to beat Charlotte. I’m still not really sold on the Clips without Kawhi Leonard. They’re a middle of the pack team in the West until he returns. Take the points here. 8* Portland

8* Under Kentucky/Duke (9:30 ET): Kentucky and Duke are each off disappointing seasons. The Wildcats were just plain bad in 2020-21, going 9-16 straight up, while the Blue Devils weren’t much better at 13-11. Neither made the NCAA Tournament.  Yet the pollsters didn’t hesitate putting both of them in the preseason top 10. That’s a little high from where I sit, but not all that egregious. I’m taking the Under on Opening Night as these two College Basketball “bluebloods” open the season in NYC as part of the State Farm Champions Classic. 

When I think Duke-Kentucky, I always think back to the all-time great game in 1991 where Christian Laettner hit his famous buzzer beater to send the Blue Devils to the Final Four. I’m a little surprised that the programs have only met three times since 2012. All were early season matchups like this one. The most recent came in 2018 with Duke winning in blowout fashion, 118-84. Needless to say, you shouldn’t expect anywhere close to that many points scored here tonight. 

Both squads have a lot of new faces. For Kentucky, that’s nothing new. Although this time Coach Cal has leaned heavily on the transfer portal. Coach K recruits just as well (if not better) than Coach Cal and four starters on this team will be freshmen. With all the new faces, I can’t see this being a high-scoring game. Kentucky averaged just 66.6 PPG vs. non-conf teams last year while giving up only 64.9. Duke isn’t going to score 70 points in this game. 8* Under Kentucky/Duke

10* Atlanta (9:05 ET): For a half, it sure looked like the Hawks were the right side last night against the Warriors. I took them, plus the points, and they led Golden State 65-61 at the break. Early in the 2Q, they were up by as many as 11. But then the third quarter and Steph Curry happened. Atlanta was outscored 41-20 in the 3Q and Curry finished the game with 50 points and 10 assists. The Hawks lost 127-113. They are now a shocking 0-7 ATS on the road this season. 

Things will not get any easier for the Hawks tonight as they must visit Utah to play the Jazz, who are the only team that I have rated higher than Golden State in my power rankings. This is a game Atlanta desperately needs as not only are they 0-7 ATS on the road this season; they’ve also lost six of seven overall straight up, including four straight. I’m going to take the points again, feeling this team is simply better than what it has shown recently. Remember they were in the Eastern Conference Finals just a few months ago. 

This is the second meeting in a week between the Hawks and Jazz. Utah took the first one, in Atlanta, 116-98. The Hawks were actually slight favorites for that game. As rough as things have been recently, there looks to be value on them plus the points in the rematch. Utah has lost its last two games, the last one coming in Orlando where they were 11-point favorites. 10* Atlanta

8* Eastern Michigan (8:00 ET): This is the second straight Tuesday game for both Ohio and Eastern Michigan. Last week, both were underdogs and won their games outright in high scoring fashion. Ohio, at home, beat rival Miami 35-33 as seven point dogs. They were outgained 569-413. Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan went on the road and upset Toledo 52-49 as a nine-point dog. The Eagles were outgained 672-490. But in both instances, I did not care about the total yardage battle or even who won. That’s because I had the Over in both games. It ended up being a 2-0 night for me. 

Last week I shared with you some rather shocking information: it has been over six years since Ohio lost a MAC game by more than seven points! But Frank Solich’s surprising retirement still looms large over this team, which is just 2-7 SU with no shot at bowl eligibility. I know that the Bobcats have been mostly “snake bitten” under Tim Albin (Solich’s replacement) in 2021 with three losses by a total of six points. But it’s probably “high time” that they lose by more than seven points in conference play. As mentioned last week, the Ohio defense is one of the worst in the country at stopping the run (204 YPG allowed) and gives up 31.3 PPG as well. 

Clearly, EMU has some “work” to do at the defensive end as well. But the offense can certainly put up points as is evident by the fact they’ve now put up 50+ in B2B games. What they did last week against the MAC’s top scoring defense was very impressive. The Eagles are now bowl eligible following last week’s win, but there’s no guarantee a six-win MAC team gets invited to play a postseason game. So they’re going to be looking for a strong finish to the regular season. Winning the West Division is not out of the question. My power ratings say this should be a double digit spread. 8* Eastern Michigan

10* Atlanta (10:05 ET): The Hawks are 0-6 ATS on the road so far. That’s the most losses without a single cover in the league. Portland (0-4 ATS) is the only other team yet to cover a spread on the road. While it’s a short number they’re getting tonight, and they’re up against a hot Golden State team, look for Atlanta to end its six-game ATS road losing streak. Key here is that the Warriors had to play last night. This is the first time all season that the Dubs find themselves in the second night of a back to back. Take the points. 

Golden State did prevail on Sunday, winning 120-107 over lowly Houston. It was not only the fourth straight SU win for the Dubs, but also their fourth straight cover. All four wins have come by double digits.  The team is now 8-1 SU on the year and the one loss came in overtime (to Memphis). Last night also marked the first Warriors’ game to go Over since the season opening win against the Lakers. But as good as the Dubs have been of late, I simply view this as a “bad spot.” Any team can have an “off-night.” 

Sure enough, the Warriors are 8-14 ATS the previous two seasons when playing without rest. It should be noted that the Hawks came VERY close to covering the other night in Phoenix, only to lose by four as 3.5 point underdogs. For the record, I cashed the Over in that game. The Hawks actually led by double digits going into the fourth quarter. Losers of three in a row, this team will be desperate for a win Monday night.  Remember they were in the Conference Finals last summer. Look for the dog to take advantage of a tired favorite. 10* Atlanta

10* Under Hornets/Clippers (9:05 ET): The Clippers have won three in a row, the last two both coming against Minnesota, to square their record away at 4-4 SU for the season. Remember that they are without Kawhi Leonard (and others!), which really leaves the scoring burden on Paul George (27.9 PPG). Now it’s obviously helped that the team is allowing an average of just 98 PPG during its current win streak. The Clips actually had to rally back from down 20 against the T’wolves on Friday, so there was a 40-point swing that took place in that game! 

Charlotte is not doing a good job defensively so far. They are giving up the most points per game in the league (117.4) and just allowed Sacramento to hit a franchise-record 22 three-pointers on Friday. That game got ugly in a hurry and the Hornets ended up losing by 30, 140-110. I’m expecting a better effort on the defensive end here. I mean, how could it be any worse? It was the second time this season that the Hornets allowed 140 in a game. The other was an overtime loss to Boston. I have to mention that other than those two games where they allowed 140, the Hornets have not allowed more than 114 in any of the other L9 games. 

I’ll be taking the Under in this one. I just don’t think the Clippers, even with Reggie Jackson shooting well these last three games, have much scoring punch behind George. Charlotte is due to defend the three-point arc better here than they did on Friday. The Clippers don’t shoot the ball particularly well from three-point range, especially at home where they’re just 30%. But they do defend the three-point line well, keeping teams to just 28.5% here at the Staples Center. The Under is 6-2 in all Clippers games so far. 10* Under Hornets/Clippers

8* Over Packers/Chiefs (4:25 ET): Well, some of the luster of this matchup has certainly been lost, eh? Not only is Kansas City just 4-4 SU on the year, but Green Bay is going to play without Aaron Rodgers, who has tested positive for COVID-19. This comes on the heels of an improbable Packers’ victory last Thursday (24-21 at Arizona) where the team was without its top three receivers. Yes, it’s VERY tempting to want to fade GB here (especially because they are on a 7-0 ATS run). But believe it or not, I can’t trust the lousy Chiefs defense laying this many points. So I’ll call for another streak to end - the Pack’s 5-0 Under run. 

Kansas City is a horrible 4-15 ATS its last 19 games. They did not cover Monday night when they beat the Giants 20-17, nor did they really come close to as 10.5-point favorites. Interestingly, the Chiefs’ last three wins have all been against the NFC East. Last week was the second best defensive effort of the season so far, but KC has allowed 27 or more points six times in 2021. Now, with Rodgers out, can the Packers score that many? Jordan Love, a former 1st round pick, will be the starting QB and he’ll have those top three receivers (Adams, Lazard, Valdes-Scantling) back. So maybe they can. 

I also have to think that this Chiefs’ offense is due to start scoring more. In three of the last four games they’ve been held to 20 points or less. That’s shocking. I love how much the O/U line has dropped with Rodgers out and think there’s some real nice value on the Over now. Truthfully, I was thinking about taking the Over anyway in this matchup (had Rodgers played). His absence must be accounted for, but I like the Over on a lower number just as much as I did the Over on the higher number with Rodgers in there. 8* Over Packers/Chiefs

10* Philadelphia (4:05 ET): The Eagles were not expected to be very good this season. With a 3-5 SU record, one might argue that they are in fact “living up to expectations.” However, I think they’ve played a lot better than people may realize. It’s something I talked about when taking them - plus the points - against Carolina a few weeks ago. The Eagles have outgained their opponents on a per play basis this season! That’s still the case and coming off a 44-6 beatdown of the Lions last week, they also now have a positive YTD point differential! I think Philly is BETTER than the Chargers. Take the points in this one. 

The Chargers have not won since October 10th when they defeated Cleveland in a wild 47-42 game. Even then, the Lightning Bolts needed to stage a comeback from a two touchdown deficit in the second half. Since that last win, the team has been blown out by Baltimore (34-6) and then, off a bye, lost at home to New England 27-24. You may recall I had the Patriots last week. Similar to this matchup, my power ratings said that LA should have been the underdog when they were in fact favored. At least, the Chargers had home field advantage last week. This week they do not. 

The Eagles are 0-3 SU at home, so expect them to really want to win here for 1st year HC Nick Sirianni. Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert is banged up (right hand injury) and was limited in practice Wednesday. That makes me like the home team even more in this one. Expect the Eagles to exploit a lousy Chargers’ run defense, which is giving up a league-worst 159 YPG. The Eagles just ran for a season-high 236 yards on the ground last week. Special teams remains an albatross for the Chargers as they currently rank 32nd (per DVOA) for the third year in a row in the “third phase” of the game. The Eagles are 6-2 ATS L8 as home dogs. 10* Philadelphia

8* Houston (1:00 ET): Cross your fingers and say a prayer, we’re taking the Texans this week. Now this play has far more to do with Houston’s opponent. Miami shouldn’t be laying this many points to ANYBODY as I have them rated as the third worst team in the NFL right now. Are the Texans 32nd (i.e. last)? Yes, they are. But I do not believe this spread is an accurate representation of the actual difference between the two teams right now. The Dolphins have been outscored by 95 points this season and haven’t won a game since Week 1 when they defeated the Patriots - by a single point. 

Houston’s lone win also came in Week (at Jacksonville). Since then, they’ve lost six times by double digits. The one exception was against the Patriots, a game they led most of the way. There have been some really bad blowout losses for David Culley’s team and last week’s game vs. the Rams was far worse than the final score (38-22) made it seem. But look at some of the teams the Texans have had to play so far. The Rams, Cardinals and Bills are the three highest rated teams in my current power rankings. Do I think Houston wins this week? Not necessarily. But I do believe they will keep this game close (as in within one possession). 

Miami has had a few more close calls than Houston this season, with three losses coming by a FG or less. But they still have the same seven-game losing streak the Texans do. It was a game effort for three quarters last week up in Buffalo, but the offense still only managed to score 11 points. In six of their eight games this season, the Fins have scored 20 points or less. That’s why I am fading in this spot. Also, Tyrod Taylor is set to return and be the starting QB for Houston. That’s an upgrade from Davis Mills. The Texans have a positive point differential for the six quarters Taylor has played this season. 8* Houston

8* Denver (1:00 ET): Dallas surprised all of us last Sunday night when they went to Minnesota and won 20-16 (as 4.5-point underdogs) despite not having the services of QB Dak Prescott. It was the sixth straight win for the Cowboys on the field and at 7-0 ATS, they are the only team to still be perfect at the betting window. I’m banking on that latter streak to come to an end Sunday as America’s Team is caught laying its biggest number of the year. Prescott is expected to play, but regardless of his status I am taking the points. 

What an odd two years it’s been for Denver when it comes to the oddsmakers. Last season, they were the ONLY team in the entire NFL not to be favored a single time. This year, they’ve been favored in seven of eight games! After starting 2021 a perfect 3-0 SU, the Broncos went on a four-game losing streak. But they picked up a much needed win last week (at home), beating Washington 17-10.  They did so despite amassing only 273 yards of total offense. But a “win is a win” in this league and HC Vic Fangio will take it. 

Denver actually has the best YTD point differential (+20) in the AFC West. Do I think that will hold? Probably not. But the Broncos have let only three teams score more than 17 points this season. Only one of their losses has been by greater than 10 points. I know Von Miller is now gone (traded to the Rams), but I still look for the underdog to make this a close game. The Cowboys are certainly long overdue NOT to cover and after surprising everyone with the win last Sunday night, this is a great time to fade them. 8* Denver

8* Villarreal (8:00 AM ET): The Yellow Submarine treated us to a 2-0 win (over Young Boys) midweek in the Champions League, elevating them into a first place tie in Group F in that particular competition. But here on the domestic front, Villarreal has surprisingly struggled. They are just 13th in the La Liga table (12 points), although three teams ahead of them currently have negative goal differentials. I think we’ll start to see a move up the table in the coming weeks and will back them again here to get the full three points Sunday.

Villarreal’s opponent this week is Getafe, who sits at the foot of the table (last) with only six points. It’s looking more and more like relegation could be a reality for this troubled side at the end of the season. Getafe is also last in expected points (xPts) so their current place is deserved. It also feels like a really good time to fade the Deep Blue Ones as they happen to be coming off their first league victory, a 2-1 shock over Espanyol last week. Despite winning, Getafe lost the possession battle in that match.

Villarreal has won the last four fixtures between these two sides, a run that dates back to January 2019. The Yellow Submarine have six draws this season, tied for most in La Liga, which is why they are so low in the table. They need to start picking up some wins. Hosting the bottom team in the table is a good place to start. I just cannot see a team that’s finished in the top seven each of the last two La Liga seasons continuing to remain in the bottom half. Getafe is last in the league in goals scored (6). 8* Villarreal

8* AS Roma (6:30 AM ET): For matchweek #12 in the Serie A season, I’m going back to our old friends in Roma, who have been quite kind to me this campaign. In my 14-3 start in Serie A, I’m a perfect 5-0 with Roma. The Giallorossi obviously wish I would take them more considering they only sit fourth in the table with 19 points. In the six matches where I have not taken Roma, they’ve lost four and drawn once (did win once). Well, good news Roma fans. I’m on your team this week, so that should mean another three points. 

This is actually a pretty critical fixture for Jose Mourinho’s side on Sunday. By the time the match takes place, there’s a chance they could find themselves as low as sixth in the table. That’s dependent on how Atalanta and Fiorentina perform on Saturday. Regardless, a win here would at least guarantee the Giallorossi to remain tied for fourth. Roma has won just once in its last six across all competitions (I haven’t been taking them very often recently) and are off a frustrating 2-2 draw with Bodo/Glimt in Europa League Conference play. I really can’t stress enough how this is a must win for them.

Fortunately, they are faced with Venezia, a newly promoted side for 2021/22 that is having predictable struggles staying clear of the relegation zone. With only nine points, Venezia is 16th and just one point clear of the bottom three. They have taken the fewest number of shots on goal in Serie A this season, a dubious distinction, especially when faced with an opponent that has taken the MOST shots in the league. I thought the Venetians were quite fortunate to play to a 0-0 draw with Genoa last weekend as they were dominated in terms of possession. They are last in Serie A in goals scored (8) and have not defeated Roma since 1999 (due to a prolonged absence from the Italian top flight). 8* AS Roma

10* Over Hawks/Suns (10:05 ET): Two teams that made surprisingly deep playoff runs last summer will collide tonight in Phoenix. Atlanta made just its second EVER appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals, losing to eventual champion Milwaukee in six games. Of course, Phoenix’s season also came to an end at the hands of the Bucks, but that was in the NBA Finals (just the second time in their history that the Suns made it that far). At the start of 2021-22, it’s been a bit of a rocky start for both (needless to say what’s going on OFF the court in PHX). But I expect tonight’s game to have some fireworks.

The Hawks are just 4-5 SU and coming off an ugly 116-98 loss at home to Utah where they shot just 25% from three point range. I’m aware of the Hawks’ 0-5 ATS road record, but expect them to shoot the ball better tonight. Trae Young was not only just 8 for 20 overall against the Jazz, but he didn’t make a single three (0 for 4). Like a lot of teams right now, Atlanta is struggling to make shots (especially on the road), but I don’t expect that to continue. They are 25th in defensive efficiency and allowing opponents to shoot over 49% the L5 games.

Suns’ owner Robert Sarver is currently being investigated by the league for a variety of misconduct, so that’s going to be a distraction. But on the court, the team is 4-3 SU and has won three straight - all here at home. Those three wins have been by an average of 11 PPG, however take note of the fact they came against Cleveland, New Orleans and Houston. Thursday night saw the Suns score a season-high 123 points and they didn’t even shoot that great. The previous four Atlanta-Phoenix matchups have all gone Over with a minimum of 227 total points being scored. 10* Over Hawks/Suns

8* West Virginia (3:30 ET): Oklahoma State had its easiest game of the season last week as they beat Kansas 55-3. But it can’t be discounted just how “dangerously” the Cowboys have been living most of this 2021 season. There have been two games (Texas & Boise State) where the Pokes won after trailing by at least 13 points. They also trailed Tulsa (at home) entering the 4Q and even had to hold off FCS Missouri State for a seven-point win in Stillwater. All the close calls finally caught up with OSU against Iowa State, where they lost 24-21, the week before blowing out Kansas. 

This week finds Mike Gundy’s team traveling to Morgantown, WV, which is one of the toughest places to play in the entire Big 12. The Mountaineers will be looking to pull off a third consecutive upset here as the last two games have seen them defeat TCU as a 4.5-point road dog and then Iowa State as a 7.5-point home dog. Though just 4-4 SU on the season, the Mountaineers could have a MUCH better record as three losses have been by six points or less, including two by just a field goal. 

While pulling three consecutive upsets might seem like a tough “ask” from WVU, take note that Oklahoma State is an extremely fortunate 6-0 ATS L6 games. OSU is #11 in the initial CFP rankings, but oddsmakers have a less favorable view and so do my own personal power ratings. Bank on the home team having plenty of motivation Saturday afternoon as they have lost six straight times to the Pokes (0-5-1 ATS). The last two weeks have seen WVU average 490 YPG. 8* West Virginia

8* Wyoming (3:30 ET): The annual “Border War” is renewed Saturday afternoon in Laramie. Colorado State owns the all-time series edge, but it had been Wyoming that had won four in a row - before last year. CSU picked up its ONLY win of the 2020 season (played just four games) when it beat the Cowboys 34-24 as a three-point home underdog. But now they have to win at a place where they have not prevailed since 2015. In what promises to be a pretty low-scoring game (just look at the total), taking the points seems like the way to go. Also, Wyoming (because they are 0-5 ATS L5 games) seems undervalued. 

Wyoming started the season 4-0. Now three of those wins were close calls (decided by 7 points or less), one of them against UConn, which would have been a VERY embarrassing loss. Turns out the Cowboys haven’t won since that near embarrassment. It’s a four-game SU losing streak with one of the defeats coming to lowly New Mexico here at home by a score of 14-3. The Pokes have actually outgained their last three opponents (combined) yet are somehow winless. Being -9 in turnovers hasn’t helped. Despite the four-game losing streak, my power ratings still say the home team should be favored here! 

Colorado State’s season started very poorly as they opened 0-2 with the losses coming to FCS South Dakota State and lowly Vanderbilt. Then things began to turn around in Fort Collins. The Rams covered four straight and were 3-1 SU. The lone loss was at Iowa! But the L2 weeks have brought a couple painful defeats, 26-24 at Utah State and 28-19 at home vs. Boise State. The Rams blew a 13-0 lead last week in a game their fanbase really thought they were going to win. I sense they’ll be deflated this week and that’s tough when hitting the road. Wyoming will be desperate for its first MWC win. 8* Wyoming

8* Southern Miss (3:30 ET): Kind of an “off the radar” game to go with here, but whenever I see a 2-6 team (like North Texas) laying points on the ROAD, my eyes always “light up.” Now Southern Miss is no Alabama. The Golden Eagles are 1-7 and that lone SU victory came against Grambling, a FCS school. The Golden Eagles have lost six straight games, five of them by double digits. But this is probably their last shot at a win this season. I think they’ll come out motivated. Take the points. 

Now until last week, North Texas had also not beaten a single FBS team in 2021. The Mean Green had lost six in a row, four by double digits, since defeating Northwestern State 44-14 all the way back in the season opener. But then they beat Rice 30-24 last week as a 1-point underdog. In case you were somehow unaware, Rice is not a good team. It took OT for the Mean Green to get that first FBS victory and they were actually outgained for the game. Expecting them to win B2B games seems like a “tall order,” no?

Now I’m obviously aware of the fact that Southern Miss has not scored 20 points against any FBS opponent this year. That’s not good! But they do only give up 20.3 PPG at home! The North Texas defense, as you might expect, is pretty bad. The Mean Green allow 33.6 PPG and have allowed less than 35 to just two FBS teams. Southern Miss had five turnovers last week in a 35-10 loss to Middle Tennessee. Take better care of the football here and they can at least stay within the number. USM has beaten N Texas each of the last two years - by a combined 28 points! 8* Southern Miss

10* Under UL Monroe/Texas State (3:00 ET): So UL Monroe has seen the Over hit in each of its last five games, three of which have seen the Warhawks surrender 55 or more points themselves. But this week they are up against a Texas State team that just got shutout last week 45-0 (by Louisiana). Texas State barely even mustered 200 total yards in the contest. Now it’s obviously a big change from facing one of the top Sun Belt defenses to one of the worst. But I do not think the Bobcats are capable of putting enough points on the board to get this game Over the total. 

Case in point, the week before facing Louisiana, Texas State put up only 16 points in a loss to Georgia State. They come in averaging only 21.9 PPG for the year, which ranks 110th in the FBS. They are 109th in yards per game, so at least they're consistent. Over the last two games, they’ve found the end zone only one time. The good news is that the Bobcats’ defense gets a bit of a respite this week. UL Monroe comes in averaging only 22.3 PPG and that number drops to a rather sad 14.7 when playing on the road (as they are here). 

So, in sum, while neither teams’ defense is very good, the respective offenses may in fact be worse. Something else I noticed is that this is set to be the highest O/U line for any game this season involving UL Monroe, the team that has gone Over five straight times. Five of Texas State’s games have seen less than 60 total points scored. None of the previous three meetings has there been more than 45 total points scored. The Under is 7-3 when UL Monroe is off an ATS loss. 10* Under UL Monroe/Texas State

10* RB Leipzig (1:30 ET): This is a crucial three points for Leipzig, who sit eighth in the Bundesliga table despite a YTD goal differential (+11) that’s right on par with the #2 and #3 teams. Only Bayern Munich, who is again the standard bearer this season in the German top flight, is comfortably in front of Leipzig’s GD. Obviously a favorite to finish in the top four coming into the season, Leipzig should be ready to make a move shortly as this season’s Champions League dreams have been dashed. In order to get back to playing European football next year, they know they’ve got to finish in the top four on the domestic front. 

Dortmund is second in the Bundesliga, just one point behind Bayern Munich. That’s impressive, but BVB is way behind the table leaders in GD (+28 vs +12). They too are coming off a crushing result in the Champions League midweek as they fell 3-1 to Ajax Amsterdam, a match they led for 35 minutes despite playing with only 10 men (Mats Hummels was given a red card at the 29 minute mark). The dam broke after Ajax got the equalizer in the 72nd minute as BVB would go on to concede two more times after that. Dortmund did go 4-0 in October in Bundesliga action, but three of those wins were against bottom of the table sides. 

This match is clearly more important to Leipzig’s future than it is to Dortmund’s. Depending what happens elsewhere over the weekend, Leipzig could be in the top four. Dortmund is assured of staying in the top three no matter what transpires. Erling Haaland remains out (likely until December), which is a crushing blow to BVB. Leipzig’s home form has also been very good with four wins in five fixtures. The lone loss came to Bayern and there’s no shame in that. 10* RB Leipzig

8* Missouri (12:00 ET): Incredibly, Mizzou has failed to cover 10 straight games. This ATS losing streak goes all the way back to the end of last season. The Tigers are 0-8 ATS in 2021. But, believe it or not, I have been waiting very patiently to bet on them again. Now it (obviously) didn’t work out the last time I did so. That was three weeks ago at home vs. Texas A&M when they lost 35-14 as 11-point underdogs. That is the only time in their last four games that the Tigers have been an underdog. This week certainly puts their “inability” to cover the pointspread to the test as they are getting almost FORTY points against #1 Georgia. 

It just so happens that Missouri’s 0-10 ATS run began with a 49-14 loss last year to UGA. They were 14-point home underdogs in that particular meeting. I think this is a GREAT time to take a Mizzou team that has been favored to win more than half of its games this season. The only other time this year that the Tigers were double digit dogs was the game vs. A&M. This is just a ton of points, a perfect time for a team that’s beyond “due” to cover a pointspread. 

Now obviously Georgia is very good. But coming off a four-game stretch where they faced Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky and Florida (all ranked teams), doesn’t it just FEEL like this is going to be a classic “letdown” spot? Especially coming on the heels of being ranked #1 in the initial CFP rankings? This is more points than UGA laid to VANDERBILT, which was a road game, but still. Only two Georgia wins this year (UAB, Vandy) were by more than 37 points. I don’t think this one will be the third. 8* Missouri

8* Over Illinois/Minnesota (12:00 ET): There’s a number of teams in College Football that are currently one somewhat improbable streaks. Illinois has gone Under in seven straight games, a run that goes all the way back to the start of September. The only Fighting Illini game this season to go Over the total was the second one, a 37-30 loss to UTSA (who’s still unbeaten, mind you). The opener, which saw Brett Bielema’s team pull a 30-22 upset over Nebraska, pushed. The most “infamous” Illini Under of the bunch came two weeks ago when, despite NINE overtimes, they and Penn State combined for just 38 points. 

Now, it wasn’t always this way. The Illini’s first three games of the season did average a pretty hefty 58.3 PPG. But it was the start of Big 10 play that brought the downturn in scoring. When facing a conference opponent, Illinois’ games have averaged only 34.5 PPG! That doesn’t include a 24-14 win over Charlotte on Oct 2. Now it should be pointed out that the Fighting Illini have not been facing the top offensive teams from the Big 10. But this week they are taking on a team that has averaged 35 points (by itself) over the L3 games. 

I have no unearthly idea how Minnesota lost 14-10 to Bowling Green on Sept 25th. What I do know is that the Golden Gophers haven’t lost since. Their only loss besides Bowling Green was the season opener against Ohio State. They scored 41 last week against Northwestern (not easy to do). Now the Gophers did just lose ANOTHER running back (Bryce Williams) to what looks to be a season-ending injury. However, I’m not at all concerned about that. Why? Because the team has had FIVE different RBs go for 100+ yards in a game in 2021! The L2 weeks have seen two freshmen - Thomas and Irving - both go over 100 yards in each game. Illinois’ Under streak ends here. 8* Over Illinois/Minnesota

10* Manchester City (8:30 AM ET): It’s Derby Week in Manchester with United hosting City in a critical clash of top five teams in the Premier League table. Man City has flashed far better form this season, having taken a total of 20 points from their previous 10 matches. That has them third in the table, five adrift of first place Chelsea and only two short of second place Liverpool. Meanwhile, despite currently being in fifth place, United has had its share of struggles this campaign. They’ve taken 17 points, only three fewer than City, but have vastly inferior YTD goal differential (+4 vs. +14). 

Both sides were on the pitch midweek in Champions League action. While City breezed by Brugge 4-1 to take over first place in Group A, United was quite fortunate to share the points with Serie A’s Atalanta in 2-2 draw. Cristiano Ronaldo really bailed his club out, scoring both goals, including a stoppage time equalizer. United had fallen behind 2-0 at the 56 minute mark and appeared to be in real danger. One would have to go all the way back to April to find the last time the Red Devils kept a clean sheet at home and they’ve conceded nine more times than have the Citizens this EPL campaign. That’s a real problem considering United has scored only one goal in its last three fixtures here at Old Trafford.

I know that City has had its fair share of troubles winning in this particular Derby. But I don’t think that there’s any debate as to which side comes into Saturday in better form. Prior to last weekend’s 2-0 loss, the Citizens had been unbeaten in eight straight Premier League fixtures. They have the highest expected point total (xPts) in the entire EPL while United is only ninth in that regard. City may be winless in the previous four Manchester derbies and scoreless in the last three, but that streak is almost certain to come to an end on Saturday. 10* Manchester City

10* Portland (10:05 ET): Can the Blazers really lose four straight times as favorites? I hope not, because I’m laying the points with them Friday night at home vs. the Pacers. Now I haven’t forgotten how Portland failed to come through for me in their last game. That was a 107-104 loss at Cleveland. The defensive effort was simply not up to par as the Blazers allowed the Cavs to shoot 52.7% from the field, including 15 of 30 on three-point attempts. But one reason I believe today can (and will) be different is that the Blazers are back home where they’re 3-1 SU so far this season. (They are 0-4 on the road). 

Not long ago, Indiana was a team that I championed to turn things around. It was Monday when I took them and they covered the spread for me in a 131-118 win over San Antonio. They followed that by beating the Knicks on Wednesday, 111-98. Prior to the B2B wins, the Pacers were just 1-6 SU overall and looked like one of the real “disappointments” in the Eastern Conference. But now they have to go and do something they have yet to do all season and that’s win on the road. So far the team is 0-4 SU away from home and giving up an average of 120.2 points in those four contests. 

Portland has averaged 120.5 PPG at home so far. In my analysis for their game vs. Cleveland, I talked about how it’s only a matter of time until Damian Lillard gets on track. Lillard did go for a team-high 26 points against the Cavs, but that was on 10 of 27 shooting (3 of 12 from 3PT range). I trust that he and his teammates will shoot better tonight now that they’re back home. The Blazers have been favored in all but one game so far, so their 3-5 SU record is a major disappointment. They’ll win and cover tonight. 10* Portland

8* New Orleans (10:05 ET): I think it’s safe to say that Golden State is off to a pretty great start to the season. They will never again ascend to the heights of those championship teams from several years back, but they’ve definitely been the second best team in the Western Conference (behind Utah) thus far. The Warriors are 6-1 SU and have yet to be beaten in regulation (lone loss was by three, to Memphis, in overtime). Since suffering that one loss, they’ve put together a couple commanding victories over Oklahoma City and Charlotte, beating those two teams by 21 and 22 points respectively.

New Orleans is NOT off to a good start. They are 1-8, which has them dead last in the Western Conference. Zion Williamson has not played and will probably be out for two more weeks. But at least Brandon Ingram appears ready to return tonight. Ingram has missed the Pelicans’ last three games, all of which have been losses, the last two coming by a combined 25 points at Phoenix and Sacramento. Before those three games, the Pelicans had been competitive, losing to the Hawks and Kings by a combined seven points.

Playing on national television, the Pelicans certainly won’t want to be embarrassed tonight. So look for a solid effort in this Friday night ESPN matchup. They are due to start shooting the ball better while at the same time the defense can only improve (last four opponents have all shot 50% or better). Golden State held its previous two opponents to 36% from the field, which is hard to do. The Dubs figure to be a popular play tonight, but I think it’s a great spot to be a “contrarian.” Take the points. 8* New Orleans

8* Under Jets/Colts (8:20 ET): The Jets are 2-5. That WL record is not nearly as surprising as the two teams that they beat, the Titans and Bengals, who are a combined 11-5 SU. Both Jets’ wins have been by exactly three points (34-31 over Cincy LW and 27-20 over Tennessee in Week 4) and represent their two highest scoring games of the season. The win over the Bengals saw the Jets score 2 TDs in the final five minutes while the win over the Titans required OT. Both wins were also at home. The Jets are still 30th in scoring (16.3 PPG). What I’m saying is that, as a road underdog this week, they probably aren’t going to score many points. 

Now recent Colts’ games have been high-scoring. Indy is off a painful 34-31 OT loss to the Titans where they blew an early 2 TD lead. That leaves them at 3-5 SU overall and three games off the pace in the AFC South. It’s actually more than a three-game disadvantage they face in the division as they’ve now been swept by Tennessee. Carson Wentz and the offense have scored 30+ points in three consecutive games, but that’s not a streak I see continuing here. It’s interesting that over the L2 weeks, the Colts have averaged just 301 total yards per game. 

Two touchdowns in the Jets’ game last week vs. the Bengals were scored after drives that started inside the 15-yard line (one for each team). Backup QB Mike White was a nice story for the Jets last week, but I don’t really trust him in his first career road start. After allowing just 21 points total the previous two games, the Colts defense performed better than you think last week. One of Tennessee’s TDs came on an INT return. Of course, Indy also benefited (early in the game) from a turnover, which allowed them to start a TD drive inside the Titans’ 10-yard line. 8* Under Jets/Colts

8* Over Celtics/Heat (8:05 ET): Reports indicate that there was an “emotional” players-only meeting in the Boston locker room ahead of last night’s 92-79 win over Orlando. The Celtics have certainly been an early season “disappointment” as they are still only 3-5 SU even after Wednesday’s victory. Marcus Smart went public in his criticism of teammates Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, leading to the closed door meeting. I guess it worked, at least for a night, but the team better be on the same page for Thursday’s game as they visit Miami to take on what has been a red hot Heat team. 

Miami has started the year 6-1 SU and outscored opponents by a league-high 16.7 points per game. Their only loss came in the second game of the season, 102-91 at Indiana. All six victories have been by double digits, the closest margin being 13 points! It’s tough to imagine them being able to play any better than they have thus far, especially at the defensive end where they are tops in the NBA in both points allowed and efficiency. They are one of just two teams to be holding their opponents below 100 PPG thus far. I do not see that continuing. 

But while I expect the Heat defense to regress a bit, look for their three-point shooting to pick up. In three home games, they’ve shot just under 31% from behind the arc. Considering they are at 36.7% from 3PT range for the season, I anticipate a good night from long range here. Miami is no Orlando, whom the Celtics were able to hold to 79 points last night on 32.1% shooting. Boston actually ranks 26th in the league in defensive efficiency so far. But they (meaning the Celtics) should also shoot better than they did last night. 8* Over Celtics/Heat

10* Over Georgia State/Louisiana (7:30 ET): Louisiana is the “forgotten team” in the Sun Belt. The Ragin Cajuns came into the season ranked #23 in the country. They lost their first game, 38-18, to a Texas team that was also ranked (#21) at the time. Since then, Billy Napier’s team has taken care of business by winning seven in a row, the most impressive victory being a 41-13 thrashing of Appalachian State here in Lafayette. That’s the only time since the Texas loss where the Cajuns have been underdogs. They also roll into Thursday on a five-game Under streak having just blanked Texas State 45-0 on Saturday. 

Georgia State is 4-4 SU and a double-digit underdog here, but could provide a “test” to their hosts on Thursday night. The Panthers are on a three-game win streak, having defeated LA Monroe, Texas State and rival Georgia Southern all by a TD or more. Two of those wins came on the road. But what is interesting about this Panthers team is that despite a low-scoring 21-14 win last week at Ga Southern, their road games have been significantly higher scoring this season. Four road games have averaged 61.3 total PPG and that number was obviously much higher before LW’s win. 

Interestingly enough, though it was a low-scoring final, Ga Southern and Georgia State did combine for more than 850 yards of total offense. The Georgia State defense was exceptionally lucky to force THREE turnovers when backed inside the red zone, two interceptions and a goal line stand. A Louisiana offense that puts up 40.5 PPG at home will not be easy to stop and the good fortune GSU’s defense had last week is not likely to repeat itself here. I know that the Ragin Cajuns have a good defense, but they are facing a team that has put up 482.7 YPG the last 3 weeks! The last two meetings have seen these teams combine for 58 and 65 total points. 10* Over Georgia State/Louisiana

8* Over Hornets/Warriors (10:05 ET): Golden State has stayed Under in all of its last five games. My guess is that they could care less as they’ve ascended back to the top of the Western Conference, a place they were accustomed to before nose diving the L2 seasons. The Dubs have yet to be beaten in regulation this season as their only loss came in OT to Memphis, 104-101, last Thursday. (It just so happens. At 5-1, they are just a half-game back of Utah entering Wednesday for 1st place in the West. 

Charlotte started its season 3-0, but has since dropped three of five. They very nearly erased a big 4Q deficit against Cleveland at home on Monday, but still came up three points short in a 113-110 loss. The Hornets were down 17 with just seven minutes to go and it’s worth pointing out that they’ve trailed by double digits in all but one game this season. Turnovers were the problem vs. Cleveland, at least in the first half, They also didn’t shoot the ball particularly well through the first three quarters. 

The good news here (for the Hornets) is that they come in leading the NBA in 3-point FG% (41.1). The Warriors are no slouch in that department either as they are making 38.1% of their attempts from behind the arc (40.7 at home). So I’m anticipating a good old fashioned “shootout” tonight in San Francisco and for that Golden State Under streak to come to an end. Six of Charlotte’s eight games have gone Over. The Warriors, who have not played since Saturday, are 4-0 Over the L3 seasons when playing with three or more days rest. 8* Over Hornets/Warriors

10* Portland (7:05 ET): Here, you’ve got two teams whose records somewhat defy the odds. Portland has been favored in all but one game so far. They are just 3-4 straight up. Cleveland has been an underdog in ALL of its games, yet is 4-4 SU. I just can’t see the Blazers losing for a third straight time as chalk nor do I see the Cavs continuing this surprising early season run. So lay the short number with the road team. 

Portland is 0-3 SU and ATS on the road. Tonight will be their third road game in four nights. As I alluded to earlier, the Blazers went off as the betting favorite in each of the previous two contests. Their last game was a 113-103 loss to a Philadelphia team that was playing without Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, Joel Embiid and Danny Green. It was a bad loss, plain and simple. Right now, it would be very easy to “point the finger” at Damian Lillard, who is averaging career-lows in points, FG% and 3PT FG%. Lillard went 7 for 20 overall (2 for 9 from behind the arc) against the Sixers. I believe it’s only a matter of time before he - and the team - gets back on track. 

Look for it to start tonight in Cleveland. The Cavs are coming off a five-game road trip (that was mostly out West) and saw them pull three outright upsets. The latest upset win came Monday in Charlotte when they won 113-110. They blew a big lead in the fourth quarter of that game. Important to note is that in three of the Cavs’ four wins, the opponent has failed to score 100 points. Yet it’s not as if the Cavs have some great defensive efficiency rating. I just believe Portland, specifically Lillard, is due to get back on track here and I’m not a buyer on the Cavs’ start. 10* Portland

8* Sacramento (9:05 ET): As one would expect, the Kings have not had much success against the Jazz these last few seasons. They are just 1-8 - straight up and against the spread - the last nine meetings. The one SU win came by a single point as 4.5 point dogs very early in the 2019-20 season. All eight losses have come by at least nine points and quite frankly the average margin is pretty huge. But I’m here to tell you that you shouldn't be surprised when the visitors (Sacramento) make this close a game on Tuesday night.

Utah, as they were expected to be, is one of top teams in the Western Conference so far. They are 5-1 SU with a conference leading +12.9 per game point differential. But I successfully faded them in their lone loss, which came on Saturday in Chicago, 107-99 as 3.5-point favorites to the Bulls. They immediately followed that with perhaps their signature win of the season, 107-95 over defending NBA Champion Milwaukee as five-point home favorites. The Bucks shot very poorly in that game.

The Kings have already lost to the Jazz once this season. It was a 110-101 game in Sacramento back on October 22nd. But the Kings come into this game with a 3-3 SU record. Now all three wins have been close (decided by four points or less), however all three were also on the road! I fully anticipate that the Kings will shoot the ball better from three-point range here than they did vs. Dallas Sunday (just 19.4%). They finished with a season-low in points and their top two scorers (Barnes, Fox) finished a combined 10 of 32. Take the points. 8* Sacramento

10* Houston (8:09 ET): I called for the Astros to stay alive after Game 5 and they did just that. It didn’t look good early when the Braves’ Adam Duvall hit a grand slam in the first inning to give his team a 4-0 lead. At that point, the entire city of Atlanta had to be dreaming of their World Series win since 1995. But it was not to be. Houston’s bats FINALLY woke up, slowly chipping away at the lead and eventually overtaking the Braves for a 9-5 victory. Now they get to go back home where the DH is again in play. 

The Astros led all of MLB in runs per game during the regular season. The big story in the losses in both Games 3 and 4 was the offense going dormant. Part of that was the loss of the DH, though it’s not entirely fair to pin the whole decline on “National League rules.” Especially when the bats woke up in Game 5. But being back at home seems significant for the Astros as they are 44-20 the L64 times they’ve been favored here. They are also 59-22 L81 games following an off-day. Prior to Game 5, all of the Braves’ losses this postseason had occurred on the road. 

It looks as if Luis Garcia will be the Game 6 starter for the Astros. He pitched well in Game 3, but no one was going to beat Atlanta’s Ian Anderson that day. As I stated in my Game 3 writeup (took the Braves), Garcia’s numbers are a lot better at home (2.71 ERA/1.004 WHIP) than on the road (4.57/1.415). Well, now he’s pitching at Minute Maid Park. Atlanta’s Max Fried was as hot as any pitcher in the second half of the regular season, but has really struggled in B2B starts (both on the road), giving up 11 runs in 9 ⅔ IP. Look for the Astros to force a Game 7 (this play stands even if there is a change in starting pitchers). 10* Houston

10* Over Eastern Michigan/Toledo (7:30 ET): If it’s November, that means it’s time for some good ol’ “MAC-tion” and I’m anticipating a pretty high scoring game here between Eastern Michigan and Toledo. Visiting EMU comes in with the better overall record (5-3 vs. 4-4 SU), however both are 2-2 SU in conference play and Toledo is a decided favorite at the Glass Bowl. Both teams are chasing Northern Illinois, who at 4-0 SU in conference play is the only undefeated team in the entire MAC. 

It may seem strange to expect a “high-scoring game” with Toledo involved. The Rockets have seen their last six games all stay Under the total. The O/U lines have been pretty consistent, ranging from 51 to 58.5. Three of the previous four games have seen between 49 and 52 total points scored, so there have been some close calls. In their last game, Toledo put up 34 points in a win over Western Michigan. That was their most points scored in a game excluding UMass or an FCS opponent (Norfolk State). The Over is 6-1 the L7 times hosting EMU and LY in Ypsilanti, the Rockets scored 45 points.

The Toledo defense has been surprisingly stout for a .500 team. They are allowing just 18.3 PPG. But the Rockets’ stop unit will be tested by an Eastern Michigan offense that comes in averaging 32.8 PPG (2nd most in the MAC). The Eagles have gone over 30 points in five of their eight games this season. Last time out, they put up 55 in a win over Bowling Green. The key was a mid-season change at QB to Ben Bryant, who leads the conference in passer rating. Toledo also made a change under center a couple weeks ago and they’ve been better (on the offensive end) since then. The Over is due to hit for the home team. 10* Over Eastern Michigan/Toledo

8* Over Miami/Ohio (7:30 ET): The 97th edition of the “Battle of the Bricks” will have a decidedly different “feel” this season as it will mark the first time since 2004 that Frank Solich is not patrolling the sidelines for Ohio. The legendary coach made a surprise retirement this past offseason and that has led to a real downturn in Athens. The Bobcats are just 1-7 SU (one win was against Akron) and headed for their worst season in two decades. However, there is one pretty incredible streak still alive at Ohio: It’s been six years since they lost a MAC game by more than seven points. This year’s three conference losses have been by a combined 11 points. Over the L5 seasons, the Bobcats have 10 MAC losses by 3 pts or less! 

Miami is in much better “form” coming into Tuesday’s rivalry game having won three of its last four. The one loss came by a single point, 13-12 at Eastern Michigan. The RedHawks are coming off a 24-17 upset win at Ball State that leaves them tied with Kent State atop the MAC East. That was their 1st road win of the season as 2021 got underway with a brutal three-game road trip through Cincinnati, Minnesota & Army. Four of Miami’s last five games have gone Under, the exception being a 34-21 win over Akron. 

Ohio’s last five games have all stayed Under, but I’m calling for a reversal of the trend here. This O/U line is definitely on the “low” end for both teams. The O/U line for Ohio’s last game was 68.5. The only game with a lower O/U line than this one came against Northwestern, who held them to six points. Miami’s defense is not going to do that. But at the same time, Ohio’s run defense is one of the worst in the entire country (220 YPG allowed) and they allow 31.1 PPG. 8* Over Miami/Ohio

8* Villarreal (4:00 ET): With a disappointing run of form on the domestic side, La Liga’s Villarreal again turns to the European front in hopes of success. With four points through the first three matches, the Yellow Submarine sit second in Group F of the Champions League. They are two points back of Manchester United, but actually own the group’s best goal differential at +2. Much of that is owed to the result of the reverse fixture with Tuesday’s opponent, whom they defeated 4-1 in Switzerland back on October 20th. 

Things got off to a great start for Young Boys in the Champions League as they shocked Man U 1-0 in the opener. But things have since taken a turn for the worse with the perennial Swiss power. They were beaten 1-0 by Atlalanta, then as mentioned before, lost the reverse 4-1 to their La Liga counterparts. Villarreal struck twice early on in that fixture, taking a 2-0 lead just 16 minutes in. After conceding in the 77th minute, the Yellow Submarine then put two more on the sheet for a decisive group stage win. 

Young Boys were already at a disadvantage coming into the UCL as they had more qualifying to do than did Villarreal. This despite bagging a 15th Swiss Super League title last season while Villarreal finished seventh in La Liga. Such is life for a side not in one of the top European Leagues. The fact that Villarreal is winless since beating Young Boys last month doesn’t bother me so much as this is a drop in class against a team that’s actually only running third this season in the Swiss League (and off a loss to boot). I’d argue Villarreal has played much better than their current 13th place standing in La Liga would seem to indicate. This is a crucial three points with both Atalanta and Man U looming. Give me the Spanish side that already won in Switzerland and is now playing on home soil. The 3-5-2 formation that Villarreal used gave Young Boys fits in the previous meeting and figures to do so again here in Spain. 8* Villarreal 

10* Memphis (8:05 ET): When Nikola Jokic went down with what looked to be a serious knee injury last Tuesday, there was some serious concern that the reigning league MVP would be out for an extended period of time. But Jokic ended up not even missing a game and has since led his Nuggets to B2B wins. The first was a blowout over Dallas at home and then the Nuggets eked out a 93-91 win at Minnesota on Saturday. But this being their third game in four nights, and on the road, I think it’s a bad spot for them. 

Memphis has fallen to 3-3 SU on the season after dropping three of their last four games. They played their worst game of the season on Saturday night, here at home vs. Miami. The Grizzlies lost 129-103 in a game they were favored to win by two points. They shot just 38.6% from the field. But the big problem was allowing the Heat to hit 21 three-pointers. The Grizz were down 16 at the end of the first quarter and never really got close after that. Needless to say, you should expect a much better effort tonight. 

Memphis isn’t just looking to bounce back from a bad loss, they also are playing with triple revenge tonight. They lost all three matchups with Denver last year. But take note two of those losses were decided by a total of three points. What’s interesting about this matchup is that the Grizzlies have been far better at the offensive end than Denver this year, but much worse defensively. I just can’t see the Grizz dropping B2B games as a home favorite nor can I see the Nuggets winning B2B games as a road underdog. 10* Memphis

8* Indiana (7:05 ET): The Pacers are off to a dismal start at 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS. Leading scorer Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring) is hurt and listed as questionable for tonight. In addition to that, Caris LeVert (who played for the first time in Saturday’s 97-94 loss to Toronto) is on a minutes restriction as he continues to work his way back from offseason back surgery. But I see the wounded Pacers picking up a win tonight over a San Antonio team that’s off a big upset and unlikely to win two straight on the road. Lay the short number here. 

The Spurs are 2-4 SU. They’ve actually covered the number in the first two games of this three-game trip, first losing in Dallas by only five points (were 7-point dogs) and then shocking Milwaukee 102-93 on Saturday, once again as a seven-point dog. Coming off a win over the NBA Champs means a “letdown” is likely in order for Greg Popovich’s team on Monday. This isn’t “your older brothers Spurs” by any stretch of the imagination. Coming into tonight, I’ve got them in the bottom seven of my own personal power ratings. 

Indiana isn’t much higher than San Antonio in the ratings, but I do have the ahead by a couple points. So with the home court advantage tonight, the Pacers seem like a logical play. I know that the injuries are a concern, but this is a team that could have a much better record right now. Three of their losses have been by three points or less, including two by exactly one point (first two games). The Spurs benefited from the Bucks shooting VERY poorly on Saturday night. Off B2B sub-100 point efforts, I think the Pacers are set to break out at the offensive end tonight. 8* Indiana

9* Bologna (3:45 ET): Though they were beaten badly on Thursday, Bologna should quickly recover with what looks to be a favorable fixture on Monday. There’s no shame in losing to Serie A leaders Napoli, which is what the Rossoblu did Thursday, even if it was by a score of 3-0. But with their winless streak having reached three, Bologna really needs to get going. They were also beaten by Milan 4-2 two weeks ago, but again that was a top of the table side. Now they are hosting the team at the foot of the table. 

It’s been a rough start for Cagliari and things got worse on Wednesday when they conceded two late goals to lose to Roma 2-1. As someone who had Roma in that particular fixture, I was quite happy to see that result. But it leaves Cagliari with just six points after 10 matches. A win would get them out of the drop zone, however, this is a side that’s won just one time all season. Genoa is the other other Serie A side that can claim that same dubious distinction at this point. Not only has Cagliari conceded at least one goal in every match this season, but they have been outscored by eight goals in four away matches, taking just a single point. 

Prior to losing to Serie A’s top two sides, Bologna had drawn with Udinese (1-1) and picked up a very impressive 3-0 win over Lazio. Over their five home fixtures this season, Bologna has picked up three wins and a total of 10 points (out of a possible 15). If you take away results against the top three Serie A sides, then all of a sudden Bologna has a +3 YTD GD with three clean sheets. They are the better side here and I look for them to take the full three points. 9* Bologna

10* Minnesota (8:25 ET): Two teams off byes meet in this week’s Sunday Night Football Game. But despite an extra week of rest, the Cowboys are not necessarily healthy. There’s some question as to whether or not QB Dak Prescott (strained calf) will even play here. Regardless if he does or not, I think Dallas is likely to lose this game and suffer its first ATS defeat of the season. They enter as the only unbeaten ATS team in the league (6-0) and are 5-1 SU, the lone loss coming to Tampa Bay on Opening Night. 

Minnesota is 3-3 SU, however I believe the Vikings are better than their record. After suffering some very close losses in the early part of the season (at Cincinnati, at Arizona and Cleveland), they’ve battled back to square away their record at .500. While they needed OT to get by the Panthers 34-28 two weeks ago, statistically they dominated that game with a 571-306 edge in total yards. Those early season losses to Cincinnati and Arizona (both on the road) no longer look as bad, given where those teams are at now. The Vikings offense may only be 14th in scoring, but it is fifth in total yards per game. 

Two weeks ago, the Cowboys were very lucky to win, let alone cover, in New England. Obviously, Prescott’s status could change everything, but I liked the idea of fading America’s Team even before the severity of the calf injury was known. It’s not like Dallas is going to cover the spread in every game this season and their defense is giving up 6.5 yards per play so far. The Vikings’ defense is tied for the league lead in sacks (with 21), so even if Prescott does play Sunday night, he’s likely to be under duress the whole time. Not good for a signal caller dealing with a calf injury. 10* Minnesota

10* Houston (8:15 ET): The Braves are just one win away from their first World Series trophy in a quarter century, but I’ll be backing the Astros as their season is on the line. For much of Game 4 last night, it appeared as if Houston was on its way to tying this series up at two games apiece. They led 2-0 going into the sixth inning. But after giving up a run in the sixth, it was back to back homers from Atlanta’s Swanson and Soler that dramatically turned the game. Things ended up 3-2 in the Braves’ favor. 

In what could be the final World Series played without a universal DH, the Astros are really struggling to score runs under “NL rules” (which state that the pitcher must come up to bat). The highest scoring team in MLB has plated only two runs in the two games here in Atlanta. But I’m counting on there being a bit of an “offensive surge” tonight. With Charlie Morton injured, the Braves are rapidly running out of pitchers. It is not known who will start for them in Game 5, but I don’t care if it’s Max Fried (on short rest) or another “bullpen game.” My money is on the road team. 

The Astros will be going with Framber Valdez, who did not pitch well in Game 1. But, rather curiously, Valdez does have better numbers on the road this season. His ERA and WHIP are 2.70 and 1.075 away from home as opposed to 4.40 and 1.563 in H-town. He tossed a dominant eight innings (only one run and three hits allowed) in Boston back in the ALCS. The Astros have lost three in a row only one time since the start of September. I’m counting on them to send this series back home. 10* Houston

8* New Orleans (4:25 ET): Tampa Bay couldn’t score ONE touchdown in the second half last week vs. the Bears. Granted they didn’t HAVE to. But I could have used one. I bet the Over in their game vs. the Bears, which was 35-3 at halftime and looking good in that regard. But only a field goal was scored in the 2H and things stayed Under with the Super Bowl Champs winning 38-3. It will undoubtedly be much tougher this week when the Bucs travel to New Orleans to face the rival Saints. 

New Orleans is off a somewhat ugly 13-10 win in Seattle Monday night. Because that’s fresh on bettors’ minds and Tampa Bay is off a blowout win, I don’t anticipate a rash of people running to the window to play the home team in this one. But I’m here to tell you that the Saints should not be discounted. This team has a very good defense, which is now the identity of the team with HOF QB Drew Brees retired. The Saints are also going to be highly motivated this week. Not just because they are up against the defending Super Bowl Champs (who knocked them out of the playoffs LY), but also because this is just the second game at the Superdome this season. 

Tampa Bay ran for 182 yards last week on Chicago. That was rather easily a season-high. But I wouldn’t expect them to reach half that number this week. New Orleans is giving up just 81 YPG on the ground. That’s #3 in the league. Now the Bucs defense is #1 against the run. But a big key here is that New Orleans is a home dog of four or more points for just the third time ever under HC Sean Payton. They are 10-2 ATS as a dog since 2018. Tampa Bay is 0-3 ATS on the road this season. My power rankings call this basically a toss up, so I will obviously take the points. 8* New Orleans

8* New England (4:05 ET): It was “just the Jets,” but the Patriots made quite the emphatic statement last week with a 54-13 win in Foxboro. It definitely made me take notice that this COULD still end up being a playoff team under Bill Belichick. Now I know their three wins have come at the expense of the Jets (twice) and Texans, who are perhaps the two worst teams in the NFL. But the Pats also have three losses that have occurred by either two points or less or in overtime. So their SU record could certainly be better than it is. They now have a YTD point differential of +39 (better than the 4-2 Chargers). So I’m definitely taking the points. 

Los Angeles is coming off its bye. They needed it as the last time we saw the Lightning Bolts, they were getting thrashed 34-6 by Baltimore. It was easily the worst loss for the Chargers this season. They’ve actually had better luck in close games, which is rare for the Chargers, who have three wins by six points or less. Another issue for the Chargers this season is their run defense, which gives up the most yards per game and attempt in the league. In addition to rookie QB Mac Jones getting better every week, New England ran for a season-best 148 yards last week. 

The Patriots always seem to have the Chargers’ number. They are 6-0 against them since 2010, including playoffs. That run also includes a 45-0 beatdown from last season where special teams played a key role. Once again, this year finds New England with a massive edge in special teams over LA. I am simply going to trust my own power rankings on this one as they say the visitors are the better team. 8* New England

9* Carolina (1:00 ET): Two 3-4 teams from the NFC South meet this week in Atlanta. The Falcons are undoubtedly “hotter” at the moment as they’ve won two straight games, one before and one after a bye. But I remain unconvinced that they are a better team than the Panthers. All three of Atlanta’s wins have been by one score, two of them by three points or less. After YEARS of misery in close games, the Dirty Birds won on a last second field goal last week, beating the lowly Dolphins 30-28. 

Carolina was once 3-0 but has now dropped four straight. They are off their most embarrassing result to date, a 25-3 loss at the Giants. QB Darnold was benched in his return to MetLife Stadium. RB Christian McCaffery remains OUT due to injury. All reports indicate that Darnold will be back as the starter this week. Regardless if those reports end up being true (I believe they are), I’ll be taking the points in this divisional matchup. Atlanta isn’t just 0-2 SU at home this season; they are also 0-6 SU and ATS their L6 as home favorites. 

Even with the Falcons’ two-game win streak, my power ratings disagree with them being favored here. They have a -41 YTD point differential as they were blown out in the first two games by the Bucs and Eagles. Their three wins have been against the Jets, Giants and Dolphins, three teams that are a combined 4-16 SU. Carolina’s YTD point differential is 0 as their first three losses were all by eight points or less. The Panthers won here in Atlanta LY when they were a weaker team. 9* Carolina

10* Over 49ers/Bears (1:00 ET): Holding an Over ticket in my hand last week, I felt pretty good at halftime of the Bears-Bucs game. Tampa Bay had just scored its FIFTH touchdown of the first half to go up 35-3. All I would need in the second half was 10 points. I got three. Probably my most frustrating defeat so far this NFL season. But I’m going to “go for it again” this week as the Bears (now 6-0 Under L6 games) host the 49ers in a battle of two NFC teams that are absolutely desperate for a victory.

San Francisco has lost four straight games. Being in the same division as the Cardinals and Rams, the Niners can pretty much “kiss goodbye” any chances of winning the NFC West. Remember that at one time they were 2-0 and looking like a lock to be one of the most improved teams in the entire league (finished 6-10 SU LY). But the bottom has dropped out, mostly because of injuries. QB Jimmy Garoppolo returned last week, but the offense could only manage 18 points in a rain-soaked loss to the Colts on SNF. I do think they’re set to do better here, especially if Khalil Mack can’t go for the Bears.

Rookie QB Justin Fields, who everyone wanted to see play, has been thrown to the wolves in Chicago. It doesn’t help that Matt Nagy is looking more and more like a “lame-duck” head coach. But I think Fields and this much maligned Bears offense can find some success this week against a 49ers defense that has given up 28 or more points in three of its last four games. This is a REALLY low total for 2021, especially considering SF is 5-1-1 Over the L7 times it has been road chalk. 10* Over 49ers/Bears

10* Sassuolo (10:00 AM ET): Perennial mid-table side Sassuolo finds itself in a familiar place heading into matchweek #11. The Neroverdi sit in 9th place in Serie A, several points adrift from the league leaders. But coming off Tuesday’s dramatic 2-1 win over Juventus, Sassuolo has a real shot at moving closer to the European places this week as they face newly promoted Empoli, a side that should feel VERY fortunate to be only two points back of their hosts on Sunday.

Simply remaining in the Italian top flight for next season is the obvious goal for Empoli, last year’s Serie B champs. All things considered, it’s been a pretty impressive start to the 2021/22 campaign as the team has collected nine points from their four road fixtures. That’s one of the best marks in the entire league. But at the same time, they’ve dropped three of four overall and have picked up points in only four of 10 matches this season.

I’m a little nervous in the sense that Empoli has yet to play to a draw this season. Their last three losses all came against top five sides (Roma, Atalanta, Inter). But they actually have the LOWEST expected point total (xPts) in all of Serie A. That’s why I said they should feel quite lucky to be as high in the table as they are. They’ve got a -6 YTD GD as well. After this, Sassuolo has two more favorable fixtures coming up on both sides of the next International Break (Nov 13). They’ve got to take advantage and I expect them to get the full three points here. 10* Sassuolo 

10* Chicago (8:05 ET): The Bulls suffered their first loss of the season on Thursday and I was happy to see it. No disrespect to those in the Windy City, I just happened to be on the team they were playing (Knicks) and it was my *10* Game of the Month. It was a tight game with the Knicks (who were slight underdogs) ultimately prevailing 104-103. Unfortunately for the Bulls, the news didn’t get any better on Friday when it was learned that forward Patrick Williams would be out for the remainder of the regular season due to a fractured wrist. That’s a literal “ouch” for a team that had gotten off to a 4-0 start. 

Chicago’s opponent on Saturday is Utah and the Jazz have also started 4-0 SU. That’s less surprising than the Bulls’ 4-0 start as the Jazz were universally projected to be one of the top teams in the West this season. Thus far, they’ve overwhelmed some pretty bad teams, beating Oklahoma City, Sacramento, Denver and Houston by an average of 18.2 points per game. Only one of those previous opponents (Denver) made the playoffs last season. I said going into that aforementioned Knicks-Bulls game that I wasn’t surprised Chicago was undefeated (based on who they’d played). I say the same for the Jazz here. 

Despite being off a loss and the Williams’ injury, I’m taking the Bulls plus the points in this one. Utah is the only unbeaten team left in the league - whether you are talking straight up or against the spread. It’s just a matter of time before a loss is hung on them in both regards. With Chicago’s only loss this season coming by a single point, I think they are the team that will - at the very least - be the first to cover against the Jazz this year. When Utah faced Denver earlier in the week, they had three days off to get ready. This is their second road game in three days. Take the points. 10* Chicago

9* Under Penn State/Ohio State (7:30 ET): Admittedly, I’m taking a risk betting on the #1 scoring offense in the country (49.3 PPG) being in a game that stays Under the total. But the team Ohio State is facing here could only manage 18 points in a game that went NINE overtimes last week! In conference play, Penn State is averaging only 19.5 points per game. So I don’t think we have to worry about them scoring many points Saturday night in Columbus. The deciding factor is that the Nittany Lions defense is quite good (14.7 PPG allowed) and can be the first to hold the Buckeyes in check here in 2021.

The last two games have seen Penn State fail to break 300 total yards. This despite starting QB Sean Clifford (got injured against Iowa) returning to the lineup last week. The Nittany Lions seemingly can’t run the ball (100th in FBS in rush yards per game) and it’s not like they’re going to do much of that here anyway as they figure to be trailing throughout. Clifford could only complete 19 of 34 passes against Illinois for 165 yards. He was also sacked four times. Now he faces a defense that’s allowed 17 points or less in four consecutive games.

Now the Ohio State offense has topped 50 in each of those same four games. But this is the best defense they’ve faced all season. Penn State is #15 in the country against the pass, holding teams to just 178 YPG through the air. The Buckeyes aren’t going to score 50+ every week. Even if they hit 40 this week, which I concede is possible, that does not necessarily mean this game is going to go Over. The Buckeyes allowed just 128 total yards against Indiana last week. So I really can’t stress how little scoring PSU is likely to do in this game. While the O/U line is right in line with most Ohio State games this year, it’s a season high for Penn State. 9* Under Penn State/Ohio State

10* Clemson (3:30 ET): We all know about that definition of the word “insanity.” Something about “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.” Well, for the third week in a row, I’m taking Clemson. This despite losing with them the previous two times. The Tigers are now 0-7 ATS, tied with Missouri for the worst such record in the country. Last week saw Dabo Swinney’s team installed as an underdog for the first time since the National Championship Game (vs. LSU) at the end of the 2019 season. It was also the first time they’d been a ‘dog in ACC play since 2016! I thought that was the ultimate “buy low” spot, but it turns out they lost 27-17 as 3.5 point underdogs.

This week finds Clemson back in the familiar role of favorite, facing Florida State. They have dominated the Seminoles in recent years. In the last two meetings, the Tigers were favored by 26.5 and 18.5 points. They won those games by 31 and 49. It should not shock you to find that the line is much shorter this time. I know that Clemson has really struggled to score this season, but here they are facing a defense that has given up 25+ points in every game when not facing UMass or Jacksonville State. Four times the Seminoles have allowed 30 or more.

Clemson did allow 27 points last week to Pitt, which was a season-worst when excluding OT. But the Pitt offense is one of the best in the country. The same cannot be said for Florida State’s. The ‘Noles have not scored more than 14 points in any of the L3 meetings with Clemson and won’t here. My own power ratings are calling for this spread to be north of two touchdowns, so there is VALUE on the favorite here. I’m not “insane!” At long last, the Tigers end their ATS losing streak. 10* Clemson

8* Boston College (3:30 ET): What in the world is going on in upstate New York? Syracuse has covered six straight games, giving them the longest ATS win streak in the country. The underdog role has suited them well as they were getting points in all but one of those games (when they faced FCS Albany). But the Orange can no longer rely on the oddsmakers to get them “over the hump” this week. That’s because for the first time in their last 22 games vs. FBS competition, they find themselves favored!

Ironically enough, the last time the ‘Cuse was favored to defeat an FBS foe was against the very opponent they are matched up with this week. Boston College comes to the Carrier Dome on a three-game losing streak. But before opening ACC play at 0-3, the Eagles were flying high with a 4-0 start. I took them (and cashed) when they beat Missouri, which is the last time they won a game. By the way, that last time Syracuse was favored? BC smoked them 58-27 as three-point pups.

I’m not saying things will turn out quite that lopsided this weekend. But I do believe it is an opportune time to fade Syracuse. All of the Orange’s last five games have been decided by five points or less. Now they are laying points for the first time in two years. Last week, they needed to come back from a nine-point deficit in the 4Q to beat Va Tech 41-36. They led for less than five minutes. I know that BC is struggling on third downs due to playing with a backup QB. But they should be able to move the ball on a Syracuse defense that gave up 260 yards rushing last week. The three straight losses are a first under HC Jeff Haley. Take the points. 8* Boston College

10* Amanda Ribas (1:30 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Women’s Strawweight Division (115 lbs). It takes place on the prelims and can only be viewed if you are a subscriber to ESPN+. Please also note the early start time of this week’s card. This will be the last fight of the prelims. I expect Ribas to get her hand raised.

Ribas is coming off a loss, by TKO to Marina Rodriguez back in January. But before that she had been on a five-fight win streak. She’d only lost one time in her career before January’s setback and enters UFC 267 with a 10-2 overall record, including 4-1 in the UFC. The key in this fight will be Ribas staying off her back, which given her excellent takedown defense, should happen. She is the better striker compared to her opponents. I should also note that Ribas had dominated the 1st round of that Rodriguez fight before getting TKO’d in the second.

Virna Jandiroba is 17-2 overall in her professional career, including 3-2 in the UFC. She’s coming off a win, which believe it or not was the first time she’d ever prevailed by TKO. It came against Kanako Murata back in June. But it’s a bit of a step up class here and Jandiroba simply isn’t going to be able to get this fight to the ground. Ribas also has a black belt in judo and is simply the more well-rounded fighter at this juncture. We’re getting a good price on Ribas here, only because of how each woman’s last fight went down. 10* Amanda Ribas

8* Tulane (12:00 ET): The pressure continues to mount on Cincinnati, who is ranked #2 in the current AP Poll and MUST finish the regular season unbeaten to have ANY chance of being the first “Group of 5” team to crack the College Football Playoff. Last week saw the Bearcats narrowly escape a bad Navy team, winning just 27-20 despite 29-point favorites. Though they led the entire way, Cincy was actually outgained in the contest 308-271. That marked a season-low in total yardage.

This week Cincy is on the road again to face Tulane. The line is in the same “neighborhood” as last week, despite the Bearcats’ poor performance and the fact I’ve got Tulane rated several points higher than Navy. Now I know this Green Wave defense can’t stop a nosebleed. But at least they’re a bit more battle-tested after facing another unbeaten team (SMU) last week. Did that game go well? Obviously not. But at least this time Tulane is at home. They’ve faced a tough schedule as Cincinnati will be the fourth team currently ranked in the Top 20 that they’ve taken on this season.

This Tulane offense can put up points. They’ve scored at least 21 in every game and average 31.9 PPG. That right there should allow them to stay within the number. Cincinnati has struggled on the road this season, not just last week, but also in tight wins over Indiana (trailed going into the fourth quarter) and at Notre Dame. Their biggest margin of victory this year away from historic Nippert Stadium is 11 points. With their hosts 0-5 ATS L5 games and being somewhat undervalued, this seems like a good spot to grab a big number. The Green Wave were favored twice during their win streak. 8* Tulane

8* Miami FL (12:00 ET): The Hurricanes treated me so well last week (upset NC State) that I’m going “back to the well” with them again this week. In the analysis for last week, I talked about how Hurricanes HC Manny Diaz was firmly on the “hot seat” after a disappointing 2-4 SU start. Remember that Miami came into the season ranked #14 in the country. The win over NC State was definitely a step in the right direction, however, it doesn’t mean Diaz is off the hook yet. Whether or not they can win again, this time on the road, is a question I’ll leave alone. But I do once again love “The U” getting points. 

Pitt is the #19 ranked team in the country coming into this week and they are off an impressive 27-17 win over Clemson. The Panthers are 6-1 SU and have covered the spread in each of their last four games. However, the ridiculous offensive numbers we were seeing from them early on in the season have started to cease. They’ve scored “only” 27 and 28 points the L2 weeks. It actually shouldn’t be all that surprising to see Pitt at 6-1 SU given that they’ve been favored in every game so far. My view is that after having beaten the spread by such a substantial margin thus far, the Panthers are “due” for a close game.

Miami has definitely had Pitt’s number through the years, going 10-4-1 ATS in the 15 meetings since ‘98. This is just the third time since ‘78 that Pitt has been favored over Miami and the previous two both saw them lose outright! One of those was in 2019 when the ‘Canes came here and won 16-12. Last year’s game was a 31-19 Miami win down in Coral Gables. With two losses decided in the final minute, Miami should have a better SU record. This is just the third time they’ve been a dog in 2021. Under Diaz, they are 4-1 ATS as road underdogs. Take the points. 8* Miami FL

8* Virginia Tech (12:00 ET): The Hokies seem to love to grasp defeat from the “jaws of victory.” They have suffered three losses this season by six points or less and all three games were decided in the final minute. Twice (vs. Notre Dame and LW vs. Syracuse) they led with under three minutes to go only to lose the game in the closing seconds. Since starting 2-0 SU/ATS, Va Tech is just 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS. But my own power ratings suggest that they should still be a slight favorite going into this weekend’s matchup with rival Georgia Tech. So I will count on things going right this time and take the points. 

Georgia Tech also has some “kinks” to work out right now as they enter this game on an 0-3 ATS slide. Their only SU win in that stretch came by four points over Duke. The other two games saw them give up 52 points (at home) to Pitt and then 48 more last week at Virginia. The Yellow Jackets certainly did not have any problems moving the ball LW in Charlottesville (570 total yards), but they also gave 636 total yards on defense. Yikes! They are allowing an average of 568.3 YPG the L3 weeks. So I expect Virginia Tech, who got 151 yards rushing LW from freshman Malachi Thomas, to move the ball in this one. 

Whomever has been on the road has enjoyed a tremendous amount of success in this particular ACC rivalry. Over the past seven meetings, the visiting team has won outright six times. The underdog had been on a 6-0 ATS run, until last year when the Hokies shut the Yellow Jackets out 45-0 as a six-point favorite. I think this is a great “buy low” spot on the better team (Va Tech) here. Georgia Tech is just 1-7 ATS its last eight tries as chalk. 8* Virginia Tech

10* Atlanta (8:09 ET): The Braves did what they needed to do in Houston, winning one of the two games, and now return home where they are a perfect 5-0 in the playoffs. I had the Braves in Game 1 when they “shocked” the Astros 6-2, jumping all over them early (it was 5-0 by the third inning). I did not have a play on Game 2 when Houston bounced back with a 7-2 win. Heading into Game 3, I think the Braves have several key advantages, most of them having to do with things taking place in Atlanta. The home team is the play tonight. 

Houston’s league-leading offense takes a hit here because the game is taking place in a NL park. That means no DH and the pitcher must come up to bat. Though there is Interleague Play throughout the course of the regular season, the Astros’ pitchers are not used to having to hit. I counted 10 games where Houston played without the DH this season. They scored just 42 runs, which is well below what they averaged with the DH in the lineup. Atlanta is obviously more accustomed to being without the DH, so the rules are in their favor for the next three games. 

Also in the Braves’ favor is tonight’s starting pitching matchup. Ian Anderson has a 5-0 TSR his L5 starts and has been excellent in the postseason with a 2.25 ERA and 1.083 WHIP. Houston is going with Luis Garcia, who has struggled in the postseason (9.64 ERA, 1.606 WHIP) and is also not the same pitcher on the road that he is at home. Garcia’s ERA rises to 4.67 away from home, which is a big change from 2.71 at home. In his lone playoff road start, he allowed five runs in 2 ⅔ innings. 10* Atlanta

10* Over Pacers/Nets (7:35 ET): All five Brooklyn games have stayed Under the total this year. That's certainly not what you'd expect from a team that led the NBA in scoring a season ago. I look for the trend to get snapped tonight when the Nets host Indiana. 

The L3 games have seen Brooklyn shoot just 43.7%, 42.6% and 38.8% from the field. The percentages from three-point range are obviously even lower, down around 28% overall during the three-game stretch. Again, this is simply not what you expect from this team. Kyrie Irving remains out, but with Kevin Durant and James Harden, the Nets should be scoring more. Harden has struggled as he continues to work his way back from the hamstring injury that he suffered in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. He’s averaging just 16.6 PPG, very “un-Harden like.” I think it’s only a matter of time before he and the Nets get on track offensively. How about tonight? They’ve yet to score more than 114 points in a game this season. Last year, they averaged 118.6 PPG. 

As for Indiana, they too have underperformed of late. At 1-4, they’re off to their worst start in six seasons. That includes an 0-3 record on the road after losing 118-100 to Toronto on Wednesday. After scoring 122 and 134 points in the first two games, the Pacers have averaged just 103.6 PPG the last three. They should easily top that number this evening and shoot better than either of Brooklyn’s last two opponents did. Domantas Sabonis, a 21.6 points per game scorer, attempted just four shots in Toronto. Look for a big bounce back game from him tonight. 10* Over Pacers/Nets

10* Under Navy/Tulsa (7:30 ET): Tulsa has gone Over in five straight games, which immediately caught my eye. Here they are matched up with a Navy team that isn’t very strong offensively (at least compared to years past) but did just hold Cincinnati to 27 points last week. Based on the way Navy plays (lots of running), there figures to be a lower number of possessions than usual for a Tulsa game. The Golden Hurricane also got last weekend off, giving them some added time to prepare for the triple option. 

When these teams met last year in Annapolis (Tulsa was ranked #22 at the time), the final score was just 19-6 (Tulsa won). Last year was a good one for the Golden Hurricane as they finished 6-3 SU with the losses coming to Oklahoma State, Cincinnati and Mississippi State (bowl). This year’s squad is not nearly as strong. However, the number of points allowed last week to USF (31) was highly misleading. The Bulls got TWO non-offensive touchdowns in the 2Q to build a brief 14-point lead. The Golden Hurricane actually ended up allowing only 268 total yards. 

Navy’s offense has been pretty pitiful to this point. They average just 280 YPG. The vaunted rushing attack is producing only 3.5 yards per carry. The Midshipmen did have a season-high 116 yards passing last week, but that’s because they fell behind by 17 points and had to throw. Again, I was impressed by the defense holding a top five opponent (that averages 41.1 PPG) to just 27 points and 271 total yards. I predict that this ends up being the lowest scoring game - for both teams - so far this season. 10* Under Navy/Tulsa

10* Arizona (8:20 ET): Two of the league’s hottest teams collide Thursday night in Glendale as the Cardinals host the Packers. Being that it’s a 7-0 team vs. a 6-1 team, this was thought to be the best TNF game of the season (at least to date). However, there is trouble in the Green Bay camp. There is a chance they could be without their top THREE wide receivers here. Both Davante Adams and Allen Lazard landed on the COVID-19 list, so they are out. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been on IR and missed the L4 games with a hamstring injury. I know GB has Aaron Rodgers, but he can’t catch the ball. 

Truthfully, even before this ill-timed news broke, I was already looking to fade the Packers this week. They were pretty fortunate to defeat Washington 24-14 last week and cover as 8.5-point favorites. The Football Team turned the ball over THREE times inside the Packers’ 10-yard line in the game. That pretty much negated a 430-304 edge in total yards. The loss of Adams would be critical to the Packers’ offense. Leading up to the game, you will probably hear that the team is 6-0 all-time with Adams out of the lineup. That is true. But so is the fact the gap in number of receptions between him and the team’s 2nd leading receiver is the largest between any #1 and #2 WR on any team in the league. 

I should probably reiterate that Arizona is undefeated! The Cardinals currently have the best scoring differential in the league at +111. That’s significantly better than Green Bay’s +22. My personal power rankings already had this spread north of a touchdown and that was BEFORE the Packers learned about the positive COVID tests. Only one of Arizona’s wins this year has come by fewer than seven points. While Green Bay won’t be quite the “public dog” I’d hoped they’d be, we’re still getting a discount on the home team, even at the current price. 10* Arizona

10* New York (8:05 ET): One of the big early season winners looks to be Chicago, who is 4-0 for the first time since the halcyon days of Air Jordan. But let’s “pump the breaks” just a little bit as the Bulls have beaten the lowly Pistons twice as well as the Pelicans and Raptors. It was a three-point win in Toronto, which was enough to cover the spread (Bulls were -2) there, and it’s another short spread tonight for a team that’s not just 4-0 SU but also 4-0 ATS. However, this is where I think the streak comes to an end. 

The Knicks are off to a 3-1 SU start (also 3-1 ATS), their lone loss coming at home to Orlando of all teams. I happened to fade NY in that one defeat. But give them credit for bouncing back Tuesday night against Philadelphia for an emphatic 112-99 win. That ended a 15-game losing streak to the 76ers, so the win was more significant than normal. The key here is that the Knicks are averaging 118.8 PPG so far. While Chicago is allowing just 97.5 PPG, again, look at who they’ve played. 

The Bulls did lead the Raptors by as many as 20 points Tuesday, so the final score was somewhat misleading. However, I still am confident that their 4-0 SU/ATS run comes to an end tonight. Before the win over Toronto, the Bulls were 0-4 SU/ATS the previous two seasons when coming off three consecutive SU wins. So this is very much “uncharted territory” for them. The Knicks, a playoff team last year, are still the more “reliable” commodity and a deeper team. 10* New York

8* Troy (7:30 ET): #24 Coastal Carolina just had its season crumble before its very eyes last week. They suffered their first loss of the season, 30-27 at Appalachian State, which basically ended any hope the Chanticleers had of representing the “Group of Five” in a New Year’s Six bowl game. You may recall that I took the points with the underdog in that one, noting Appalachian State was easily Coastal’s toughest 2021 opponent to date. There were some other reasons I took the Mountaineers as well. But all you need to know is that Coastal now finds itself in a terrible letdown spot against a team that’s better than you think. 

Troy is 4-3 (straight up). They’ve only been an underdog twice, at home vs. Liberty and at South Carolina. They were competitive in both of those games, losing by eight and nine points respectively. But they do come into Thursday on a four-game ATS losing streak. They had a terrible game where they lost outright (as a 23.5-pt favorite) to LA Monroe. The last two games have seen the Trojans win by three both times. They deserved the cover against Ga Southern earlier this month as they had a 409-301 edge in total yards. They were a little luckier last week against Texas State (+3 in turnovers), but again gained almost 400 total yards.

Troy’s defense is only giving up an average of 19.6 PPG. That should keep them in this one from start to finish. That’s good enough for me when taking this many points. Again, this is the ultimate letdown spot for Coastal Carolina as they had the “bubble burst” last week and can no longer dream of a second straight undefeated regular season. Troy’s offense had a season-high in rush yards (205) vs. Texas State and has scored 10 out of 14 times on its first possession of a half. Coastal’s defense gave up a season-high 575 yards last week. Troy has had four extra days to prepare for this game and the last two meetings have been decided by a total of five points. Take the points. 8* Troy

10* Atletico Madrid (3:30 ET): Depending on what happens with Real Madrid on Wednesday, there may be a chance for reigning La Liga Champs Atletico to move to a familiar place here, that being the top of the table. As of press time, Atletico is three points back of current table leaders Sevilla. Real Madrid would move in front if they beat Osasuna, however anything less than that would leave the door open for Atletico to move level with Sevilla & Real Sociedad at 21 points. Regardless, it’s a critical three points here for last season’s champs as they try to keep pace with the other top sides in La Liga. 

It’s also a pretty favorable fixture as Atletico takes on one of La Liga’s two winless sides, that being Levante. Now having played to a draw in half their matches, Levante is certainly better than the other side without a win (Getafe). Based on expected points (xPts), they probably even deserve to be closer to the middle of the table. But the reality of the matter is that Levante has the second worst goal differential in all of La Liga (-9) and just wasted a three goal effort last week vs. Sevilla by conceding five times. They have the worst defensive record in the Spanish top flight (18 goals allowed) and prior to LW they had been kept clean four straight times.

Atletico was able to rescue a point last week by coming from behind to pull even with Real Sociedad 2-2.  It is a bit shocking that Atletico has not kept a clean sheet in any of its last five away matches. But they did beat Barcelona 2-0 earlier this month, prior to the International Break. Levante has given Atletico some surprising troubles in recent seasons, winning 2-0 against them back in February and losing only two of the last 10 meetings here on home soil. However, there really is no debating who the superior side is in this one. 10* Atletico Madrid

10* Cleveland (10:35 ET): The Cavaliers are competing for HC Bernie Bickerstaff as they’ve pulled B2B upsets, beating Atlanta and Denver. They beat the spread by a combined 35 points in those two wins, yet are still pretty sizable underdogs for tonight’s visit to the Clippers. This Los Angeles team, which is without Kawhi Leonard and several other key players (all injured), just picked up its first win of the season Monday when they crushed Portland 116-86 here at home. But I don’t think we’ll see anything close to a repeat of that performance here tonight. 

In addition to Leonard being out indefinitely, the Clips have yet to get any minutes this season from Serge Ibaka or Jason Preston. Marcus Morris is also questionable with a knee injury after missing the Portland game. Paul George has picked up the slack by averaging 28.7 PPG, but I don’t think the team can count on Luke Kennard shooting as well as he did on Monday when he matched a career-high with six three-pointers. Nor can LA count on Cleveland shooting as poorly as Portland did that day. The Blazers went 8 for 37 from behind the arc in that game.

The Cavs pulled their two upsets thanks to some solid play on the defensive end. They held both the Hawks and Nuggets under 100 points. At the offensive end, the Cavs have had a different leading scorer in all four games. Is this a great team or even one that will make the playoffs? Probably not. But they’ve shown they’ve got the “goods” to at least stick within the number against a Clippers team that isn’t as good as it’s been in years’ past. Take the points in this one. 10* Cleveland

8* Portland (10:05 ET): The Trail Blazers are coming off an embarrassing 30-point loss at the Clippers Monday night. Even though it’s still early in the season, they can ill-afford anything close to a repeat of that performance as they host Memphis tonight on ESPN. The Blazers have dropped two of three so far, but did blow out the reigning Western Conference Champs (Phoenix) here at home over the weekend. I don’t think it’s asking too much for them to bounce back and win at home. 

Memphis 2-1 SU and has covered the spread in every game. They are coming off their first loss of the season, 121-118 to the Lakers on Sunday. Though the Grizzlies have been off for two days, this marks their third consecutive road game and they are also in Golden State tomorrow night. Ja Morant has been excellent, averaging 35 points and eight assists per game. But can he keep up THOSE kind of numbers? Probably not. Note that the Grizz have been behind at halftime each of the last two games. 

I’m expecting a big bounce back game from Damian Lillard tonight after he missed all eight three-point attempts against the Clippers. Also, Portland turned the ball over 30 times in that game. Lillard has had a cold start to the season, shooting just 36 percent and averaging 17.0 PPG. My guess is he’s going to be highly motivated going against Morant. The Blazers are traditionally a strong home team and seeing them lay such a short number, I can’t help but think we’re getting a “discount” in this one. 8* Portland

10* AS Roma (2:45 ET): As you already saw, it’s been a very successful Serie A season for me thus far (11-2 overall). The side that I have had - by far - the most success with is Roma. My record when taking them is a perfect 4-0. It’s somewhat interesting that Jose Mourinho’s team has won only one other time when I have NOT taken them this season. But they currently sit a very respectable 4th in the table with 16 points and just pulled off something that no other Serie A side had previously been able to do this season and that’s take points from table leading Napoli, whom they played to a goalless draw over the weekend. 

Cagliari sits at the opposite end of the table, in the relegation zone with just six points. They’ve won just one time in 2021/22 and that came right after the International Break, 3-1 over Sampdoria. Last week brought an ugly 3-0 loss to Fiorentina, which was the third time in the last five matches where Cagliari was kept goalless. I feel a little bad for them as they deserve better than their current standing, but this is simply not the fixture where they are likely to turn things around, especially with so many injuries in the starting XI. 

Roma will have no sympathy for Cagliari as they have not won since the International Break. There was a disastrous showing in the Europa Conference League after a 1-0 loss to Juventus. Then came the 0-0 draw against Napoli, the only team that is higher in expected points this Serie A season. With Cagliari conceding more than two goals per match and giving up 21 shots on goal to Fiorentina, look for Roma to break out on the scoresheet on Wednesday. 10* AS Roma

8* Sevilla (1:00 ET): I’ve said it previously, but Sevilla just might be La Liga’s best side in 2021/22. They currently trail table leaders Real Sociedad by one point and have a game in hand. A win Wednesday would move them on top (although Real Madrid can stay level if they defeat Osasuna). In terms of expected points (xPts), Sevilla is #1 right now. Fresh off a 5-3 thrashing of Levante, Sevilla has lost only once this season (a real shocker to Granada), but is otherwise unbeaten across their last 16 competitions. Look for it to be an easy three points on Wednesday as they face Mallorca.

After a one year absence from the Spanish top flight, Mallorca earned promotion by winning the Segunda Division last season. Like the two other newly promoted sides this season, they’ve made a decent accounting for themselves as they currently sit 12th in the table with 12 points. But they have a -6 YTD goal differential. It was a wild 2-2 draw with Valencia last week as Mallorca blew 2-0 lead where they were the beneficiaries of an own goal.

Mallorca had to play with only 10 men for most of the second half as Kang-In Lee was sent off with a red card in the 55th minute. But they still had that 2-0 lead heading into stoppage time, which is when disaster struck as they then conceded twice and had to share the points. It will be very difficult to get over what they feel should have been three points. But Mallorca was also dominated in terms of possession in that match (73% to 27%). I think they are pretty outclassed here against a side they’ve beaten just once in the last seven meetings and that was back in 2013. 8* Sevilla

8* Barcelona (1:00 ET): I am here to tell you that it is FAR too early in the campaign to write off Barcelona. They may currently sit just ninth in the table while coming off a 2-1 loss to Real Madrid in El Clasico. However, they are 4th in xPts after ranking 1st in that department among all La Liga sides last season. They have the same YTD goal differential (+5) as their opponents this week, Rayo Vallecano, and I am anticipating a move up the table. Expect Barca to gain all three points from this midweek fixture. 

As I mentioned in the other La Liga writeup, all three newly promoted sides are enjoying a decent amount of success. None more so than Rayo Vallecano, who sit in seventh place in the table (16 points) and are also the second highest scoring side. But that latter figure is at least a little misleading as Vallecano has played one more match than most of their brethren. They’ve lost two of three, including a disheartening 3-2 loss to Real Betis over the weekend where the game winner was scored in the 75th minute on a penalty. That will be a tough loss to get over. 

Now I realize that the same can be said for Barca losing El Clasico, a battle that was 1-0 heading into stoppage time. Barca actually had a slight edge in possession in that heavily hyped fixture and the slightest edge in expected goals. Vallecano has been a very favorable matchup in the past with Barca winning each of the last 14 meetings and scoring at least two goals every time. Look for them to earn their 1st away win of the season. 8* Barcelona

8* Atalanta (12:30 ET): Sampdoria may have been an easy winner for us on Friday, but that’s because they were facing Spezia, a side that will likely be fighting off relegation all season long. Now it’s a big step up in class as the Blucerchiati face one of Serie A’s “big boys,” Atalanta, who will not be lacking in motivation heading into this fixture. La Dea, who is still fifth in the table, took just one point from two competitions last week as they lost their Champions League fixture to Manchester United and then had to settle for a very disappointing 1-1 draw with Udinese back on the domestic front. 

Prior to its win over Spezia on Friday, Sampdoria sat dangerously close to the relegation zone in 17th place. That was a critical fixture as it took place on home soil where the Blucerchiati had yet to win this season. Two first half goals were key and there was little doubt what the final result would be for most of the second half. But while the only goal conceded came in stoppage time, take note of a couple things. Spezia committed the deadly sin of an “own goal” and actually dominated possession of the ball (71% to 29%). With Sampdoria conceding at a rate of almost two times per match, this sets up as a tough fixture for them. 

Atalanta may not be scoring at the same rate as previous campaigns, but they still must be respected. It looked as if they had Manchester United beat last week when they led 2-0 at the half. Conceding three times in the second half to lose the match was an absolute stunner. Then they led Udinese most of the second half on Sunday before giving up a stoppage time goal to settle for the draw. Clearly, they feel they should have won both matches. I look for them to take their frustrations out on one of Serie A’s lesser sides and possibly move up into the top four by the end of matchday 10. 8* Atalanta

10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): As we all anticipated, it’s been a rough start to the season for OKC. The Thunder are 0-3 - both SU and ATS - and every loss has been by 12 points or more. But, even by their low standard, a fourth straight double digit loss to start the season seems unlikely. You just don’t see that very often. So I’ll call for a “circle the wagons” type performance tonight at home and take the points. 

Golden State is 3-0 SU and covered the spread in two of the wins. I took them on Opening Night when they “upset” the Lakers 121-114 as 3.5 point dogs. From there, they’ve since defeated the Clippers 115-103 and the Kings 119-107. In both instances, the Warriors were three-point favorites. Now they face their largest spread of the season. Oddsmakers are calling for a margin of victory that they’ve achieved only once thus far.

The Warriors did defeat the Kings by 12 points on Sunday, but that was a game where they led by only two going into the fourth quarter. Steph Curry has been a bit inconsistent, scoring 45 points in the win against the Clippers but making just 6 of 23 three-point attempts in the other two games. The way I look at things, it’s very hard for a team to go four straight games without being competitive. The Thunder have shot 40.6% overall and 26.6% from three in the first three games. Those numbers are bound to improve and I believe they will tonight. 10* Oklahoma City

7* Run Line Atlanta (8:09 ET): First off, please note that I am taking the RUN LINE here with the Braves +1.5. The Braves have not beaten the Astros since 2014. But of course that is highly misleading as the teams haven’t even played since 2017. The Astros won all four meetings that year (‘17), so there’s a great sense of unfamiliarity between the clubs that once upon a time (pre-1994 realignment) were in the same division (NL West). Houston is the favorite and is making its third appearance in the Fall Classic in the last five years. (They’ve been in the ALCS each of the L5 seasons). For them, this series is about redemption as their 2017 WS win is generally thought to be tainted by a cheating scandal.

Atlanta is making its first World Series appearance since 1999. That’s hard for me, a teenager for much of the ‘90s, to wrap my head around. The Braves were a WS mainstay in that decade, making it there FIVE times (but only winning once). Over the last 20 years, they’ve been a playoff mainstay, but never made it this far. It is incredible to think that this team had a LOSING record entering August! Since that time, they have a 43-21 record. It would be (very) foolish to discount their chances of winning this series as they just unseated the defending WS Champs (and the team I considered to be the best in baseball), the Dodgers. 

Unlike that series with the Dodgers, the Braves do NOT have home field advantage here. But looking at the starting pitching matchup for Game 1, I think they do have an edge. Charlie Morton has a lower ERA/WHIP than does Framber Valdez and his numbers are better on the road while Valdez’s are worse at home. Valdez did have the one dominant start in the ALCS, but hadn’t been all that good leading up to that. Morton has a 3-2 TSR his L5 starts with the two losses both coming by a single run. The Braves getting to use a DH in Houston is an added bonus. I don’t think that they’ll do any worse than a one-run loss in Game 1. 7* Run Line Atlanta