10* Under Bruins/Avalanche (9:05 ET): Boston will look to complete an unbeaten Western road swing to start the year as they visit Denver tonight. Already, the Bruins have won in Dallas, Arizona and Vegas, the latter of which isn't easy to do. Right now a case could be made that the Bruins are the best team in the league, but it's too early for us to make any declarative statements like that. Plus, the Bruins aren't the only unbeaten team in this matchup. The Avalanche are 2-0 having scored nine goals in home victories over Calgary and Minnesota. Tonight, we look for a low-scoring game and are on the Under.

Solid goaltending is nothing new in Beantown as it led the Bruins all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals last year where they eventually went down to the Blues in seven games. Between Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak, the team save percentage this year is at .959 as the duo has allowed just four goals on 98 shots. Rask is likely to be the one in goal this evening and while it was Halak that turned in the 1-0 shutout of Arizona last Saturday, Rask remains the more reliable option. Interestingly enough, Rask did not start either game vs. the Avs last season. Colorado will quickly find out that they were lucky to have missed him twice. They won't be so fortunate tonight. 

The Avs come in shooting at a pretty high percentage the first two games (14.1%). That's simply not sustainable over any reasonable length of time, so we're looking at an offense due to regress facing one of the top goaltenders in the league. Also, the skaters might be a bit rusty for the Avs tonight as they've been off for the last four days. But the time off does allow for Philipp Grubauer to make his third start of the year. He made 29 saves in the win over Minnesota and 27 in the win over Calgary. The Under is 36-16 in the Bruins' last 52 games. 10* Under Bruins/Avalanche

10* New England (8:20 ET): The Giants have covered five straight against the Patriots, all as underdogs, including a couple of very famous Super Bowl upsets. Also, the underdog is a perfect 5-0 ATS on Thursday Night Football this year. But that's pretty much all the G-Men have going for them heading into this week's clash in Foxboro. It's just another year where New England is pacing the league. Right now, they're 5-0 and outscoring opponents by more than 20 points per game. Only one of those five games was decided by less than 16 points and it was on the road against a Buffalo team that has a very good defense. Our projections have the Patriots winning this game by three touchdowns. 

There had been a growing sense of optimism in the Giants' locker room after rookie Daniel Jones replaced the washed-up Eli Manning and led the team to two victories. The first was a huge comeback against Tampa Bay. Then a 24-3 win over the lousy Redskins. But then the G-Men ran into Minnesota last week and suffered an 18-point loss (28-10) at home. Jones wasn't very good against the Vikings, throwing for just 182 yards, and the team was outgained by more than a 2:1 margin (490-211). A big problem for Jones this week is that he's going to be w/o RB Saquon Barkley, Barkley's backup Wayne Gallman, WR Sterling Shepard and TE Evan Engram. They figure to REALLY struggle to move the ball in this contest. A short week doesn't help.

Now that you're done reading the injury list for the Giants, let me now remind you that they are facing the Patriots here! The New England defense didn't even give up a touchdown until the 4th game and has allowed only two the entire season. Bill Belichick has a history of making rookie QB's look bad and Jones is likely to be the latest installment of that trend. The Patriots have a huge edge defensively in this game, not just because of their own exploits but also b/c of the Giants' ineptitude on that side of the ball. While the Pats allow just 238.4 YPG on 4.4 yards per play, the Giants allow 409 YPG on 6.8 YPP. This could easily turn into a 30-0 type game. 10* New England

8* Houston Run Line (7:07 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where we are backing the Astros -1.5. Winning a playoff baseball game by multiple runs isn't necessarily easy to do, but Houston w/ Gerrit Cole on the mound has been the closest thing to an automatic bet this year, thus we're willing to back the Astros at the reduced price that requires them to win this game by at least two runs. Since July 17th, the team is 14-0 in Cole starts, including a 3-1 victory in Game 2 of this series when he pitched 7 2/3 scoreless innings and set a franchise record w/ 15 K's in a postseason game. Look for Houston to advance - and win Game 5 by at least 2 runs. 

Not only are the Astros a perfect 14-0 in Cole's last 14 starts, the pitcher himself has not lost a decision going all the way back to May 22nd! For those of you who forgot their calendars this morning, that was almost five months (and 23 starts!) ago. The numbers are almost unreal w/ Cole posting a 0.91 ERA and 0.644 WHIP his last seven starts and a 2.46 ERA and 0.779 WHIP this season at home. The team is 27-7 w/ Cole on the mound this year, including 16-2 here at Minute Maid Park. Only five of those 27 wins have been by one run. By the way, the Astros won both Games 1 & 2 by multiple runs, raising their home record this year to 62-21. On average, they are outscoring teams by 2.1 rpg at home. 

Tampa Bay has wisely adopted an "underdog strategy" for this series that involves heavy reliance on their bullpen. Eight Rays' pitchers have worked at least three innings in the series. This plays to the team's strength anyways as they have a very good bullpen. But the bottom line is they aren't quite as stingy on the road as they are at home (where both wins in this series have come). Tyler Glasnow will start Game 5 and he lasted just 4 1/3 IP in his Game 1 start, giving up two runs and a homer. The Rays ended up losing 6-2. We saw one of the World Series favorites (Dodgers) drop out yesterday, we can't envision the top AL team suffering the same fate. 8* Run Line Houston (-1.5) 

8* Vancouver (10:05 ET): Two also-rans from the Pacific Division collide late Wednesday. Normally, we might just sit this one out, but the situation really works to Vancouver's favor. Los Angeles is playing its third straight game in Western Canada and is in the second night of a back to back. The Kings pulled off a huge upset last night, beating Calgary 4-3 as +210 ML underdogs. But they needed overtime to do so, making this tough situation all the more challenging. We just don't see the Kings being able to win again tonight. 

Vancouver is 0-2, so there's already a sense of desperation here. Like the Kings, the Canucks season began w/ two games in Alberta. They lost 3-2 to Edmonton and then were shutout 3-0 by Calgary. But unlike LA, the Canucks have had three days off since their last game. Disheartening for Vancouver is they outshot their first two opponents. Coming off a shutout loss, there are rumors that they may "tinker" w/ their top line tonight. Free agent signing Micheal Ferland was dropped to the third line on practice Tuesday. Usually, in the short term, these line changes provide a temporary boost. 

The Canucks won three of four meetings LY w/ the Kings. Let's not forget how bad the Kings were last season as they finished w/ the fewest points in the Western Conference. They came out unusually strong last night, outshooting Calgary 20-3 in the first period en route to eventually taking an early 3-0 lead. That held up, but we don't envision a similar performance tonight. Both goaltenders have save percentages below .900. The Kings lost the opener to Edmonton, giving up six goals. We're likely to see a performance more closely resembling that than what we saw last night. 10* Vancouver 

10* LA Dodgers (8:37 ET): A lot of folks might be surprised that this particular LDS has made it to a Game 5. Not us. We've actually steered clear of the series as we had these rated as the top two NL teams coming into the playoffs. Washington definitely would have been favored to win a series against either Atlanta and St. Louis. But instead they were matched up with the Dodgers, whose 106 wins were second most in baseball. LA came in as the overwhelming favorite to represent the Senior Circuit in the World Series. Faced with elimination, we're willing to bank on them advancing here. This is a team that is 60-23 at home this year while outscoring opponents by 2.1 rpg here. 

Getting the baseball for the Dodgers here is Walker Buehler. He started Game 1 and got the win by going six innings w/o allowing a run. He only gave up one hit! It was the fifth time in his L10 starts that Buehler didn't give up a run. Important is that three of those five were here at Chavez Ravine. For the year, Buehler is 7-1 in 15 home starts (11-4 TSR) w/ a 2.68 ERA and 0.863 WHIP. He has experience pitching in these kind of situations. In the Dodgers' playoff run last year, he won both a one-game playoff to decide the NL West and then later Game 7 of the NLCS. He allowed just one run (10 2/3 IP) in those two games, both of which were at home. 

Stephen Strasburg opposes Buehler here. He too has tasted victory in this series as he won Game 2 for the Nats by giving up just one run and three hits in 6 IP. It was the ninth consecutive start for Strasburg where he allowed 3 ER or less. That doesn't even include his relief appearance in the Wild Card Game vs. Milwaukee. Let's not forget the one real weakness of this Nationals team - the bullpen. Unless Strasburg can somehow go the distance (unlikely seeing as he hasn't done it once this season), the Nats will have to turn to that 'pen and Max Scherzer just pitched Game 4. The Dodgers have the luxury of using Clayton Kershaw here. The Dodgers are 38-19 off a loss and 16-5 w/ day off. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Louisiana (8:00 ET): This is a battle of unbeatens, though of a different kind. Appalachian State is unbeaten in the "classic sense," in that they're 4-0 straight up, one of 16 teams left in the country w/o a SU loss. Meanwhile, Louisiana is the ONLY team left in the country that's unbeaten at the betting window as they come in at 5-0 ATS. We're proud to say that we were on this Ragin Cajun team a few weeks ago and while this Sun Belt rivalry has not gone well for them in year's past (0-6 all-time vs. Appalachian State), we're going to call for things to be different this time around. Go w/ the home team! 

It was three Saturdays ago when we backed Louisiana as a three-point dog at Ohio. They went in and beat Frank Solich's Bobcats 45-25, which is a very impressive win. Ohio had previously won 10 in a row at home before the Ragin Cajuns came to Athens. We should have followed up that big win w/ another play on Louisiana, but were a little "gun-shy" about laying points as they were playing on the road for a second straight week and facing a rested opponent. But despite a less than favorable situation, the Ragin Cajuns still managed to go in and beat Georgia State 37-24. In retrospect, we should have listened to the numbers. Our numbers again indicate they are being undervalued in this matchup and we will listen this time. 

What makes Louisiana so difficult to defend is that they have a three-headed rushing attack. Ragas, Mitchell and Calais have combined for over 1200 yards already and 17 touchdowns. All three are averaging at least 6.0 yards per carry. For the season, the Ragin Cajuns are averaging an incredible 314 yds rushing per game. Appalachian State's run defense isn't terrible, but they still allow 165 YPG and have given up 36.3 PPG the L3 weeks. The only team to beat Louisiana this year was Mississippi State. This is a huge revenge game for Louisiana as they lost twice to the Mountaineers last season, by 10 in the regular season and then by 11 in the SBC Championship Game. But both those games were played in Boone and were more even then the final scores indicate. This time, Louisiana gets App State at home and gets the job done. 8* Louisiana

8* NY Islanders (7:05 ET): The Oilers are one of three teams in the Pacific to open 2-0, but both wins were of the one-goal variety, at home and against bad teams (Kings, Canucks). We see a much different result unfolding tonight as the hit the road for the first time. They travel cross-country to face the Islanders, who have yet to leave Uniondale this season. After dropping the opener (2-1 to the Capitals), they came back w/ a 4-1 win over Winnipeg on Sunday, a game in which the Isles never trailed and got 35 saves from goaltender Thomas Greiss. Look for them to get two more points Tuesday. 

Greiss had a career-year last season, turning in a 2.27 GAA. Last season's turnaround on the goals allowed side of the ledger was really stunning. Barry Trotz inherited a team that had given up the most goals EVER in an 82-game season the year prior. But in 2018-19, the Isles gave up the FEWEST goals in the league! They probably won't be that stingy again this season, but we like them to be up to the challenge tonight. While Edmonton did score six goals in its last game, they did so against a Kings team that has fallen on hard times. The Oilers are just 21-31 after scoring 4+ goals in their previous contest. 

While Edmonton is 2-0, both games saw late comebacks in which they scored twice in the final 10 minutes. Against the Kings, they overcame a one-goal deficit four separate times before getting the go-ahead goal late in regulation. That sounds like an unsustainable blueprint for success to us and it should be noted the Oilers have not started a season w/ three straight wins in 11 years. If you give up five goals to a team like the Islanders, you have virtually zero chance of winning. The better team is underpriced here. 8* NY Islanders

10* Under Stars/Capitals (7:05 ET): So far, every Capitals' game has stayed Under the total. They've won two of three, including an Opening Night victory over the reigning Stanley Cup Champion Blues. But they're off their 1st loss as they dropped the home opener Saturday to Carolina, 3-2. While it might seem natural to expect them to bounce back w/ a win tonight (facing an 0-3 team), we don't feel that confident taking a Caps team that has yet to score more than two goals in regulation and is really struggling on the power play (2 for 11 so far). Take the Under instead.

Dallas is off to its first 0-3 start since 1998. The games have gotten progressively higher scoring, but all have been one-goal defeats (1-2, 2-3 and 3-4). The most recent setback came in Detroit Sunday when they blew a two-goal lead (the Caps did the same against Carolina). In that loss, the Stars managed only 22 shots on goal, which simply won't get it done. One positive for the Stars though is they've really seemed to have Washington's number through the years. They've taken 24 of the previous 31 head to head matchups, including 11 of 14 here in D.C. 

Neither team is giving up many shots in the early going. Washington is allowing just 25.3 per game, which is #1 in the league. Dallas isn't too far behind at 27.7 per game, tied for fifth. As alluded to earlier, the Capitals have been ineffective on the power play so far this season. Typically a strong team w/ the man advantage, they were 0 for 6 against Carolina. Evgeny Kuznetsov will return tonight from a suspension (for testing positive for cocaine), but who knows how effective he'll be. We know Dallas comes in desperate. They are 31-17 Under the L2 years after allowing 4+ goals in the previous game. With both teams starting their #1 goaltenders, this should be a low-scoring game. 10* Under Stars/Capitals

10* Minnesota Run Line (8:40 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where we are backing the Twins at +1.5. For Minnesota, the first two games of this series have to be a horrific sense of deja vu as they've now dropped a MLB record 15 consecutive postseason contests, 12 of those losses coming against the Yankees. They were spotted an early 2-0 lead in Game 1, but that didn't hold in an eventual 10-4 loss. They never really stood a chance in Game 2 as the decision to start a rookie (Randy Dobnak) turned out to be a poor one as they were down big early and lost 8-2. But, at home for the 1st time in the series, we think thinks finally turn out differently for the Twins. Well, they'll at least do no worse than a one-run loss in Game 3. 

Jake Odorizzi was originally set to start Game 2 for the Twins, but manager Rocco Baldelli elected to go w/ Dobnak instead. That decision probably had to do w/ the fact Odorizzi is largely a fly-ball pitcher and that doesn't play well at Yankee Stadium. But here at Target Field, Odorizzi should pitch well. He certainly pitched well down the stretch, allowing 3 ER or fewer in his L10 starts. He closed his regular season by allowing just one run and two hits on September 24th. Granted, that was against Detroit. Odorizzi faced the Yankees twice in the regular season and the results couldn't have been more different as he had his worst outing of the year and threw six shutout innings of two-hit ball. We're willing to bank it's going to be much closer to the latter tonight.

The Yankees go w/ Luis Severino as they look to close out this series. He only started three games in the regular season because of injury and we view him as a big question mark coming into the postseason. He's worked just 12 innings total. The Twins were 44-18 in the regular season off a loss, but now they've dropped three in a row (dating back to reg season finale) for the 3rd time all year. At no point in the year did they lose three in a row to the same opponent! We get the sense that they are going to put EVERYTHING into this game (how could they not?) as their season and run of postseason infamy are both othe line. The Yankees have a losing record this year as ML road favorites of -125 to -175. 10* Minnesota Run Line (+1.5)

10* Over Browns/49ers (8:15 ET): Fun fact: You would have to go back to the 1980's (or maybe even before that) to find the last time a Browns-49ers matchup went Over the total. Whenever it was, it certainly predates our records. Now, to be fair, these teams don't play very often (one time every four seasons). The fact that they're meeting in 2019 is cool because it's the first time in FOREVER that both teams have a sense of optimism. Cleveland is in off a 40-25 win over Baltimore last week while San Francisco is unbeaten and off its bye week. Back in Week 2, we told you that the 49ers were our pick for most improved team in the league this year (they went out and clobbered Cincinnati 41-17). Monday night, we like that rare Over to take place in a rare intriguing Browns-49ers matchup. 

The Browns' offense had not played particularly well the first three weeks of the season w/ it's "best" effort coming on a Monday night against the wounded Jets. But they still only scored 23 pts in that game. Last week though, Baker Mayfield and company tore through the Ravens defense to the tune of 40 points and 530 total yards. RB Nick Cubb ran wild for 165 yards, a total he probably won't be able to get to against a fairly stout 49ers' run defense. However, Mayfield could very well be in line for a big day here as the 49ers defense largely has NOT been tested through the air. The last two opposing QB's they faced were Andy Dalton & Mason Rudolph. Making matters more problematic is the Niners lost CB Ahkello Witherspoon to a foot injury in the win over the Steelers. Look for Odell Beckham Jr to have a big game as a result. 

After putting up 72 points in the first two games, the 49ers were held to "just" 24 in the win over the Steelers two weeks ago. But that number easily could have been a lot higher had it not been for several miscues in the red zone. Incredibly, the offense turned it over THREE times (all fumbles) inside the Steelers' 20-yard line. They finished the game w/ 436 yds total offense and thankfully still won despite the turnovers, but really they should have won by more. That came after putting up 41 points and 572 total yds on the Bengals. So both offenses are capable of 40+ pts and 500+ yards in a game. The Over has cashed 15 of the last 20 times SF has been coming off a bye. 10* Over Browns/49ers

8* St. Louis (3:05 ET): While Atlanta was being coy about who would be its Game 4 starters, St. Louis knew all along who they'd be sending to the mound in this must-win situation. Dakota Hudson will be the one to get the baseball w/ the season on the line and that's something we like as Hudson has not only been on fire for months now (14-4 since May 18th), he has also been lights out here at home, going 9-2 w/ a 2.75 ERA in 17 starts (13-4 TSR). Overall, the Cardinals pitching staff has performed much better at home this year and we just can't see Atlanta coming in and taking both games at Busch Stadium. Look for the home team to stay alive and win Game 4. 

Hudson has not pitched since September 27th when he tossed five shutout innings in a win over the Cubs. He had 10 strikeouts in that game (a season-high), which came here at home. It was also the fifth time in his last nine starts that Hudson did not allow a single earned run. Only once in that stretch has he allowed more than 3 ER and that was when he allowed four to the Reds on 8.31. There had been some thought to using Hudson in a relief role earlier in the series, but circumstances never dictated that actually taking place. Obviously, last night was a horrible loss for the Redbirds as Atlanta scored three times in top of the ninth. That was a taste of their own medicine after their own late rally to win Game 1. We don't think Hudson should have much trouble shutting down a Braves lineup that had scored only three runs in 17 innings before last night's rally. 

So after making us wait, Atlanta has elected to go with Dallas Keuchel as their Game 3 starter. It was either going to be him or Julio Teheran and Teheran's recent efforts (not good) are probably what led to Keuchel getting the call instead. The thing is Keuchel will be working on just three days' rest. He started Game 1 and while he allowed just the one run in 5 IP, he didn't have ANY strikeouts! The Braves are only 10-10 in his 20 starts for them and his number get much worse on the road where his ERA is 5.89 and his WHIP is 1.629. Look for this series to head back to Atlanta for a Game 5. 8* St. Louis

9* Denver (4:05 ET): The Broncos' defense has yet to force a turnover, ranks near the bottom of the league in sacks and just loss DE Bradley Chubb to a season-ending ACL injury. Not the start defensive wizard Vic Fangio was looking for in his first head coaching gig in the league. Denver is 0-4 despite being competitive in all four games. While one of four 0-4 teams in the league right now, the Broncos are definitely better than the other three and better than their record. They get another chance at giving Fangio his first win this week as they visit the Chargers. This is a spot where we want to take the points as the Chargers have been hit even harder by injuries and aren't the same team they were a season ago.

The Chargers are off a 30-10 win, but it came against Miami, so that doesn't hold much water. RB Melvin Gordon is set to return this week, but as alluded to above, the real story in LA is who WON'T be on the field for the Chargers. Already the team has had to place 10 players on IR, three of them starters. (The tight end position has been hit the hardest). In addition, there are four more starters that aren't 100% and could have to miss this game. Two are starting receivers, so Philip Rivers may not have anyone to throw to Sunday. On the defensive side of the ball, we know DE Melvin Ingram is out. Other than Miami, we just don't see this Chargers team being able to beat any opponent by any kind of margin right now. 

The Broncos are not only 0-4 SU, but they've lost eight straight going back to last season. But under Fangio, they've at least been competitive. Two of the losses have come by two points, including last week's to Jacksonville, which was decided on a last second field goal. It was the 2nd time this year Denver lost on the final play. They've actually gained the same number of total yards as their four opponents. Honestly, we give them a great shot at the outright upset here. The road team did win both meetings last season. We "buy low" on a Broncos team that is "due" for some good luck. 9* Denver 

10* Tennessee (1:00 ET): The Bills may very well end up being a vastly improved team, at least record-wise, by season's end. But one side of the ball can only carry you so far. For the Bills, that one side of the ball is a defense that just held the Patriots to 16 points (no TD's after 1st quarter) and 224 total yards. But offense is a real concern here w/ second year QB Josh Allen unlikely to play this week. His replacement is Matt Barkley and if that sounds bad, it should look even worse. As much as the drafting of Allen was questioned, the dropoff to Barkley is pretty severe. The Bills didn't score after Allen left last week's game w/ a concussion. Even if Allen were to play this week, there's the question of whether or not he's 100% and the truth of the matter is we still aren't sold on him as he had three interceptions last week and a completion percentage below 50%. 

Now lets talk about Tennessee. While we faded them in Week 3 (lost outright in Jacksonville), we were all aboard their train last week as they went into Atlanta and upset the Falcons 24-10. They dominated from the outset as well w/ Marcus Mariota throwing three 1st Half TD passes. It didn't even matter that they didn't score a single point after halftime. That was Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense they held in check too. Stopping this Bills offense - whether it's Allen or Barkley at the helm - will be much easier. This Titans defense is #4 in the league in scoring (one spot higher than the Bills) and will be up against a Bills offense averaging only 19.0 PPG. 

The strength of the Bills offense is running the ball, but the problem w/ that is the Titans have done a great job at stopping the run the L2 wks, allowing just 88 and 58 yards to the Jags and Falcons respectively. This is an addition to having a pass defense whose numbers looked great before Ryan attempted 53 passes against them last week. Another huge edge for the Titans here is that they take very good care of the football (just one turnover). Buffalo, on the other hand, already has two games w/ four TO's. No matter who the Bills QB is here, we have the Titans winning this game by at least a touchdown. Another key is the Titans offensive line will be bolstered by the return of Taylor Lewan, who was suspended the first four games. 10* Tennessee

10* NY Jets (1:00 ET): With a 30-14 loss to the Patriots two weeks ago, Jets HC Adam Gase has now lost nearly one-third of the games in his coaching career (17 of 52) by at least two touchdowns. His current team is 0-3, certainly not the start that they - or I - had imagined. The Jets were on my "most improved" list for 2019, but after blowing a 16-0 lead against Buffalo in Week 1, that quickly went out the window. QB health has been a major issue here as Sam Darnold has missed the L2 games w/ mono. His backup, Trevor Siemian, is out for the year w/ a broken ankle. That left Luke Falk, a former practice squad player, to start the third game. While it was a 16-point loss to New England, the Jets did cover the number (were +23) despite not even scoring an offensive touchdown (scored one on defense & special teams). 

If this all sounds rough to you, it is. But it's not dire. The Jets had their bye last week. While having a bye week that early in the season isn't always ideal, it probably was for the Jets as it allowed Falk to get some much needed reps for the Week 5 opponent, Philadelphia. There's no sugarcoating how bad the Jets offense looked against the Patriots. But that was to be expected going against one of the top defenses in the league, with a third string QB, on a short week no less (Jets had just played on MNF). Now, with added rest, they are getting to face an Eagles defense that is a little suspect. While the Eagles did win last Thursday (we had 'em), upsetting the Packers in Green Bay, they did give up 6.6 yards per play. 

In fact, the Eagles were outagined by almost a full yard per play in that outright win last Thursday. It was a much needed win (why we backed them plus the points!) after starting 1-2 w/ a home loss to the Lions. But they did get outgained by over 150 yards. Green Bay had a chance to tie late, but Aaron Rodgers was picked off in the end zone. That was one of two critical Packers' turnovers in the game, the first leading to an easy score by the Eagles (got the ball in the red zone). I'm not saying that the Jets are gonna win this game, but they most likely won't. But it's a big spread for a desperate team coming off a bye. Winless teams playing on the road, off a bye, are on a 17-7 ATS run. We'd have the spread closer to 10 points. While Falk only threw for 98 yards in his debut, Carson Wentz threw for only 160 last week. Wentz is just 1-7 ATS his L8 home games. Take the points. 10* NY Jets

8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): Oddsmakers clearly overadjusted for the Drew Brees injury as the Saints are 2-0 (SU and ATS) as underdogs with Teddy Bridgewater as the starting QB. Maybe we shouldn't be surprised. Bridgewater is now 25-7 ATS as a starter, the best such mark for any QB w/ at least 15 career starts. But now he's a favorite for the first time this year. He and the Saints will be facing a Bucs team that is not only vastly improved on BOTH sides of the ball, but has also already pulled two outright upsets on the road. The Bucs could easily be 3-1 had it not been for blowing a DD lead against the Giants two weeks ago. They could be 4-0 had it not been a slew of turnovers in the opener vs. SF. Take the points. 

While the Saints are 2-0 SU/ATS with Bridgewater starting, by no means have they been dominant. In fact, they were outgained 514-265 by Seattle, needing multiple non-offensive TD's (1 punt return, 1 fumble return) to win 33-27. We had them as our *10* Game of the Month last week as a rare home dog against the undefeated Cowboys. They won that game 12-10 despite not scoring a single TD. So with Bridgewater starting, the Saints have managed just three offensive TD's in two games, one of which started inside the opponent's 30-yard line. Bridgewater has failed to throw for even 200 yards in either game. Anything close to a similar offensive effort will obviously not get it done as a favorite. 

The Bucs clearly didn't have any offensive issues last week as they hung 55 in a shocking upset of the Rams. QB Jameis Winston has gone over 350 yards passing in B2B games. While the numbers from the last five quarters may indicate something different, the defense has also gotten better w/ Todd Bowles as the coordinator. They've been particularly effective at stopping the run where they allow just 59 yards per game on 2.9 yards per carry. That's #1 in the league! The underdog has won all four Tampa Bay games this year and we'll look for that trend to continue. They won here in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome last season. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Stanford (10:30 ET): Things may not be looking so hot down on "The Farm" right now, but we like the number we're getting w/ the Cardinal this week in a "Pac 12 After Dark" special vs. Washington. Despite starting their backup QB last week, Stanford scored a season-high 31 pts last week. Granted, it was against Oregon State, but I'll still call it an "encouraging" sign as it came on the road. Davis Mills will get the nod under center again this week (as K.J. Costello is still injured), but this time it's at home. Washington is the better team, but Stanford is still a "tough out" here in Palo Alto, regardless of what happened two weeks ago vs. Oregon. Also note that this number is about a full TD higher than the Oregon game, even though we have the Ducks rated higher than the Huskies. Take the points. 

Despite losing to Oregon 21-6, the Stanford defense allowed just 320 total yds in that contest. They've allowed an average of just 14 points and 265 yards at home so far w/ both games coming against P5 opposition. It's been a tough schedule thus far for Stanford w/ three games coming against teams we have ranked in the Top 25 (UCF, USC, Oregon). They did jump out to a 21-0 lead LW vs. Oregon State before needing a last second FG for the 31-28 win. The Cardinal are 45-9 SU at home under HC David Shaw and have had UW's number through the years, taking 10 of the last 14 meetings including the L5 at home - by an average of 18.4 PPG. Those were some better Stanford teams in that mix, but it's also very rare to get a number like this on them at home under Shaw. 

This will be the second week in a row Washington gets to face a backup QB as LW they were up against USC's third-stringer and won by two touchdowns (28-14). That was at home, however, and total yardage was basically dead even. Shaw is a perfect 4-0 ATS as a home dog at Stanford including an upset of the Huskies two years ago. There has been only one time under Shaw that Stanford has gotten more points than it has here and that was against Oregon in 2012 when they pulled an outright upset. Before that, the last time they were a home dog of 15 pts or more was the infamous upset of USC under Jim Harbaugh (2007). This is a straight value play as our numbers indicate the spread should be 9.5. Look for the Cardinal defense to keep them in this one.  10* Stanford

10* Under Twins/Yankees (5:07 ET): The more things change, the more they stay the same. The Twins' postseason horror show continued in Game 1 as they lost yet again to the Yankees. The franchise has now dropped a MLB-record 14 consecutive contests, 11 of those losses coming at the hands of the Yankees. Having played the run line last night (Twins +1.5), we were actually feeling pretty good about the game early. But not even getting spotted an early 2-0 lead was enough as they went down 10-4. In a somewhat surprising move, Minnesota is going with rookie Randy Dobnak as their Game 2 starter in lieu of Jake Odorizzi. Perhaps equally surprising is that we'll be going w/ the Under, another bet we lost in Game 1. Though it was irrelevant w/ New York scoring 10 runs last night, we're getting a better number tonight. 

Dobnak made five starts in the regular season, all in September. Four of them wound up staying Under the total. He was not asked to go long in the first two, but the last three have seen him allow just four runs (two unearned) in 14 1/3 IP. He ended up with a 1.86 ERA and 0.931 WHIP. He has yet to allow a single home run, which is key when pitching in this ballpark. The Yankees have also never faced Dobnak before, which is an advantage for the pitcher. As for the Twins' hitting, three of their four runs yday came via the home run. While that's been their biggest offensive weapon this year, it's an unsustainable way to score in the playoffs. They went 1 for 9 w/ RISP last night. 

The Yankees go w/ Masahiro Tanaka and history suggests he'll come up big in this spot. He has a 1.50 ERA in five career postseason starts and is a perfect 5-0 lifetime (in five starts) vs. Minnesota w/ a 2.27 ERA. Tanaka was somewhat inconsistent in the regular season, but was at his best here at home where he had a 3.10 ERA and 1.095 WHIP in 16 outings. His last start came back on September 19th and he threw seven strong innings against the Angels, allowing just one run on four hits. Interestingly, the Yankees do score fewer runs per game at home than on the road. They also are hitting just .218 as a team the L7 games. It's definitely "going against the grain," but we're on the Under in Game 2.  10* Under Twins/Yankees

8* Texas (3:30 ET): Historically speaking, this is not a good spot for the 11th ranked Longhorns as they are just 2-7 ATS their L9 tries as a conference favorite and have Oklahoma on deck (a spot in which they've failed to cover six of the last seven years). However, they are coming off a bye and facing a team that is nowhere near as good as its 3-1 SU record would seem to indicate. West Virginia has struggled to beat the likes of James Madison and Kansas, needing late scores and turnovers to get by both. And even though they did pull an upset over NC State, the Mountaineers are still just 2-8 SU, 3-6-1 ATS in the underdog role the L3 seasons. We feel Texas should be immune to the RRR lookahead this year and have its way w/ a subpar WVU team. Lay the points.

Homefield advantage hasn't mattered the last three times these teams have met. The road team has won all three, including WVU 42-41 in Austin last season. The fact that the revenge angle is in play here is yet another reason to override Texas' history in this situation. We're also willing to look past the injuries in the Longhorns' secondary due to the fact WVU is last in the Big 12 in offense and has really struggled to get the ball down the field. On the flip side, Texas QB Sam Ehlinger has looked great so far. He has 15 TD passes and just one interception while throwing for 309 YPG. The Longhorns have scored at least 36 points in every game and gone over 500 yards in each of the last three. 

West Virginia is a 3-1 team in name only as we have them rated as the second worst team in the Big 12. Last week, they were a little lucky to beat the worst team in the conference (Kansas) as they were outgained, but wound up +2 in turnovers. Even more damning is that in the season opener, they were outgained by FCS James Madison (WVU didn't even gain 300 yards!) and were tied going into the 4Q (ended up +3 in TO's). Yes, there was the upset of 44-27 of NC State here in Morgantown two weeks ago. But the week before that, the Mountaineers got slaughtered 38-7 by a Missouri team we have rated slightly below Texas in our own power rankings. The Longhorns are simply the much better team here and should win big. 8* Texas

10* Notre Dame (3:30 ET): This may sound crazy (not to mention uncharacteristic!), but we're going to lay what is easily the biggest number on the board Saturday w/ Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish treated us well last week, finishing strong to get the cover as DD chalk against Virginia in what was a Top 25 matchup. But if you read our analysis, you know we "scoffed" at the notion of the Cavaliers being a Top 25 team. Things played out the way we expected as the Irish ended up winning 35-20 thanks to a superb defensive effort in the second half (shut UVA out). While we may not regard Virginia as being a Top 25 team, they're still certainly a competent opponent. The same cannot be said for this week's Notre Dame opponent, Bowling Green, who is one of the worst teams in the entire country right now.

We learned our lesson w/ BG early as we made the mistake of taking them in Week 2 against Kansas State. They were getting 24.5 points in that contest, but that hardly mattered as they ended up losing 52-0. It's been all downhill since w/ last week's 62-20 loss to Kent State marking a new low for the program. The Falcons defense permitted 375 yards - both rushing and passing - for a total of 750 allowed. This was against a team that is a 35-point underdog this week (granted, against Wisconsin) and was coming off a 39-point loss. We've still got Kent State rated as one of the bottom 20 teams in the country, but that might as well be the top 10 compared to Bowling Green, who is in our bottom three. This is about as one-sided a matchup as you'll see all season. 

Notre Dame's defense forced five turnovers and allowed just four rushing yards last week against Virginia. Unless they simply don't care this week, it is difficult to see how Bowling Green is going to move the ball in this game. Obviously, Notre Dame still needs to score a lot of points to cover though. But remember they dropped 66 in a win over New Mexico here in South Bend back in Week 2. They can easily score a similar number here, given BG just allowed 62 points and 750 total yards to a bad MAC team last week. Notre Dame just gone done facing two very good defenses - Georgia and Virginia - so expect QB Ian Book to have a performance similar to that New Mexico game where he threw for 360 yards and five touchdowns. Yes, this spread is not high enough! 10* Notre Dame

8* Maryland (12:00 ET): The bloom has definitely fallen off the rose in College Park where just three weeks ago Maryland fans believed their team was set to compete w/ the heavyweights of the Big 10. But two bad losses later and the Terrapins are scrambling. First they were upset on the road by Temple, losing 20-17 as 5.5-point chalk. Then came last Friday's embarrassment at the hands of Penn State, 59-0, in a home game where seating was expanded to accommodate what was a turnaway crowd. It's definitely now hard to rectify what we've seen in the last two games compared to the first two, but fortunately for Maryland they are drawing the perfect opponent for a "get well" game this week, that being Rutgers, whose issues run far deeper. Lay the points. 

Rutgers has played two Big 10 games so far and been outscored 82-0! Last week's 52-0 loss at the hands of Michigan cost both HC Chris Ash and OC John McNulty their jobs. It's tough to defend Ash as he won just eight games in three-plus seasons here and was 3-26 in conference play (all three wins coming in 2017). But the decision to fire him seemed to be hastily made and certainly puts interim Nunzio Campanile in a really tough spot. Campanile not only is taking over the head coaching job, but the play calling as well. This is someone who was a high school coach just 18 months ago and a tight ends coach as recently as last week! Not only have the Scarlet Knights been shutout in both Big 10 games so far, they've gained just 277 yards TOTAL! Tough spot. 

On paper, laying double digits on the road w/ a team that just lost 59-0 doesn't read well. But this spot seems tailor-made for a Maryland blowout. Beating up on bad teams is what's going to get them bowl eligible and you have to remember they were ranked in the Top 25 three weeks ago. They scored 142 points in wins over Howard and Syracuse, the latter we were on. Rutgers lost 17 games by 20+ points under Ash and don't figure to get much better anytime soon. After having the run game stifled last week, Maryland should be able to run wild in this game against a defense that is giving up nearly 200 rush yards per contest. Last year, the Terps beat Rutgers by 27. You wouldn't know it judging by the L2 games, but this year's squad is better under 1st year coach Mike Locksley. They'll be eager to rebound after being embarrassed on national TV last week while Rutgers is a program in shambles right now. 8* Maryland

8* Wisconsin (12:00 ET): Interesting scenario here. We've already laid one big number w/ Wisconsin against a MAC team (Central Michigan) and that wound up being a 61-0 win. We've also previously laid a big number against this Kent State team (-36 w/ Auburn) and that ended up being a 55-16 win. With Wisconsin every bit as good as Auburn and Kent State every bit as bad as Central Michigan, this number makes sense. What doesn't is that it's started to trickle down a bit. Kent State is just 1-18 SU its last 19 games vs. current Big 10 teams and it should be noted the one win came against Rutgers, who was in the Big East at the time. The 18 losses have been by an average of over 30 PPG. Wisconsin is very much for real this year. Lay the big number. 

Coming off a very impressive beatdown of Michigan, it was going to be next to impossible for Wisconsin to come out w/ the same intensity against Northwestern last weekend here in Camp Randall. While they failed to cover the 24.5-point spread, they nevertheless did win 24-15, a game where the defense allowed just over 3.0 yards per play. The fact they were slightly outgained by N'western is misleading in the sense they ran 22 fewer plays. The offense will obviously have to play a lot better this week and should against a Kent State defense that was gashed for 467 yards on the ground by Auburn two weeks ago. In case you forgot, the Badgers have RB Jonathan Taylor, who has rushed for 100+ yards in nine consecutive games. That's the longest active streak in the country entering Saturday. 

Conversely, Kent State is going to struggle to move the ball in this game. Yes, the Golden Flashes did just go for 62 points and a school-record 750 yards last week. But that was against one of the worst teams in the entire country, Bowling Green, who is a 46.5-point underdog this week. Now the Flashes face the #1 ranked defense in the country that is giving up just 7.3 points and 192.3 yards per game. The Badgers defense has actually scored nearly as many TD's (3) as it has allowed (4). Opponents are converting just 15.5% on third-downs against Wisconsin, the lowest percentage in the nation. Needless to say, it is going to be a rude return to Madison for Kent State HC Sean Lewis, who was a QB and TE here over a decade ago. 8* Wisconsin

10* Run Line Minnesota (7:07 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where we are backing the Twins +1.5. From how we look at things, there are a couple of reasons why Minnesota would be this large of an underdog for Game 1. None of them have to do w/ anything you will see play out on the field Friday. Well, you'll see the Yankee name on the front of the jerseys and that alone has a lot to do w/ how the marketplace reacts. But such a reaction is often irrational and based merely on "reputation." Speaking of reputation, the Twins don't have a good one in the postseason, especially when matched up w/ the Yankees. From 2004-2010, they lost four LDS to the Yankees and overall have lost 13 consecutive playoff games. But it's 2019 and we have reason to believe this time will be a little different for the Twins. 

Let's start w/ their record-setting lineup, which had FIVE players hit at least 30 home runs. No other lineup in baseball history can claim that. Yes, the Yankees also ended up hitting more than 300 HR's total, something no other team had ever done, but the Twins finished w/ ONE more on the year. An interesting tidbit w/ this Twins offense is that it performs better on the road. They averaged 6.1 runs per game on the road, the highest such average in all of MLB. That resulted in them winning 55 regular season games on the road, which was easily the most. 

Jose Berrios starts Game 1 for the Twins. He may not have been dominant down the stretch, but he was certainly effective and ended up having a good year. He has 26 strikeouts in his last 26 1/3 IP. The Yankees did not face him in any of the six regular season meetings. The one weak spot w/ this Yankees team is the starting rotation. Though Game 1 starter James Paxton has a perfect 11-0 TSR since the beginning of August, he did leave his last start w/ a sore muscle. We think Paxton could be "due" for a loss here. Interestingly, the Yankees were ML home favorites in the -175 to -250 range 22 times in the regular season and lost 10 of those games. The Twins lost the regular season finale, but are 44-18 off a loss. They do no worse than a one-run loss in Game 1. 10* Run Line Minnesota (+1.5)

10* Under Twins/Yankees (7:07 ET): We know these teams can score, but this is the postseason when runs tend to be a bit more scarce. Three of the four games the last two days have stayed Under w/ a late inning barrage between the Cardinals and Braves accounting for the only exception. This LDS does feature the only two teams in MLB history to hit 300+ home runs in a season. Not surprisingly, the public has decided to load up on the Over. Yet interestingly, the O/U line hasn't gone up and in some shops it has actually gone DOWN. Unless the home run ball is even more plentiful than usual, we look for Game 1 of Twins-Yankees to be a suprising Under. 

Jose Berrios starts Game 1 for the Twins. He may not have been insanely dominant down the stretch, but he was certainly effective and ended up having a good year. He has 26 strikeouts in his last 26 1/3 IP. He allowed only nine runs in that stretch, five of them coming in one game, so he was very good in the other three. There were only five starts all season where Berrios allowed more than 4 ER. Berrios final start of the regular season saw him give up only two runs in 6 IP, giving him a 4-1 Under mark in the month of September. The Yankees did not see Berrios in any of their six regular season matchups with the Twins.

James Paxton will go for the Yankees in Game 1, looking to extend a team start record of 11-0 that dates back to the start of August. Paxton has picked up the win in 10 of those 11 starts, the exception being his last time out when he had to exit after just one inning due to a sore muscle. He is 3-1 w/ a 2.27 ERA in six career starts vs. Minnesota. Though the Twins lineup did post big numbers during the regular season, a lot of that came at the expense of bad teams, particularly the three within their division (KC, Chicago, Detroit). The Yankees actually average fewer runs per game at home than they do on the road. 10* Under Twins/Yankees

10* New Jersey (7:05 ET): The Devils are a very trendy choice to improve in the 2019-2020 season. They have a point projection of 91 points and are even money (-110) to make the playoffs according to oddsmakers. That may sound a "little rich" for a club that finished in last place w/ 72 points (2nd fewest in the East) last season. While we're not sure that we're "all in" on the Devils at this point (to reach the playoffs that is), they do find themselves in quite the advantageous spot to open their season. They are hosting Winnipeg, who lost a hard fought game last night to the Rangers. Good situational play on a team that's probably under the radar right now.

The Jets led the Rangers 4-3 last night after Kyle Connor struck w/ a power play goal early in the 3rd period. But from there, things all went downhill as they gave up three goals, the final one coming w/ a two man advantage in the final 20 seconds. It was a brutal loss, not just because they blew a lead on the road, but also because they outshot the Rangers 47-32 and had five power play opportunities. They converted just the one. Losing in the fashion they did (gave up game winner in final five minutes) and then turning around to play another road game the following night is a pretty brutal spot for any team. 

While the Jets did finish w/ 99 points last season, let's not forget that they had a terrible finish to the regular season and then were bounced in the first round by St. Louis. While the Blues did go on to win the Stanley Cup, remember it was Winnipeg that had the home ice advantage in that series, so it was considered an "upset" at the time. Perhaps the biggest reason for optimism w/ New Jersey is former MVP Taylor Hall's presence on the roster. But they also made several key additions in the offseason while Winnipeg lost some key pieces. 10* New Jersey 

8* Run Line Atlanta (4:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where we are backing Atlanta +1.5. The Braves lost Game 1, 7-6, which is costly as it was a home game. It was their first blown lead of 2+ runs in the eighth inning or later in the postseason since 2005. Now they've got to face Jack Flaherty, who has been as lights out as any pitcher in baseball in the second half. But if there's one "saving grace" for the Braves, it's that Game 2 is still in Atlanta. Obviously, dropping the first two games at home in a five-game series is basically a death knell. But fortunately for Atlanta, Flaherty hasn't been as effective on the road this year. The Cardinals are just 8-9 in his 17 road starts. Look for the Braves to do no worse here than a one-run loss. 

The Braves had a 3-1 lead entering the top of the 8th yday and seemed poised to take Game 1. But they allowed the Cardinals to score six times in the final two frames, including four in the 9th. They then put forth their own rally, scoring two in the bottom of the ninth, but it wasn't enough. Of course, if they were to come up one run shy again today, that's okay given how we're playing the game. If you're looking for motivation here, Atlanta has now dropped nine straight postseason games, which is one away from tying the MLB record set by the Cubs. They've also lost nine straight postseason series going back to 2001. Look for an "all out effort" in Game 2 Friday afternoon. 

It would be silly to run through Flaherty's exploit as that would only raise apprehension about playing against the Cardinals starter today. However, what about the Braves starter for Game 2, Mike Foltynewicz? He's been every bit as good as Flaherty recently. Over his last three starts, Foltynewicz has a 2.00 ERA and 0.722 WHIP. He's allowed just five ER his L5 starts, the exact same number as Flaherty, though in four fewer IP. But the bottom line is that w/ Atlanta in full desperation mode, getting them +1.5 at home is a value too great to pass up.  8* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5)

10* Over Temple/East Carolina (8:00 ET): Saturday's 24-21 win over Old Dominion marked the fifth straight East Carolina game to stay Under the total this year. There are only three other teams in the country that are 4-0 Under, one of them being ODU. Not that Saturday's game didn't have its chances to go Over. It was 17-3 in the second quarter w/ ODU knocking on the doorstep. But the Monarchs fumbled at the goal line and the trajectory of the game really never recovered. It was 17-13 midway through the third quarter, but there were four consecutive punts after that, followed by 2 ODU interceptions w/ a missed ECU field goal in between. It really was a frustrating loss for us and anyone else who may have had the Over. 

Temple just grounded Georgia Tech, holding them to only 2 points on Saturday. So you may be of the opinion that the Owls are not the ideal opponent for East Carolina to snap it's Under streak. Temple has gone for just 22 PPG since opening the year w/ a 56-14 win over Canisius. But they did give up 38 in their lone road game, which doubles as their lone loss, at Buffalo two weeks ago (as two touchdown favorites). That was a huge letdown spot for the Owls as they were coming off their own upset, of previously red-hot Maryland (who has since been badly "exposed."). Also, you can run on this Owls' defense. The last three weeks have seen them surrender 500+ yards over land. 

Since becoming conference rivals, these teams have played every year. Not surprisingly, Temple has won all five meetings. They've held East Carolina to 14 points or less every time. But we see the Pirates easily topping that number Thursday. While the only two prior home games this year were against FCS opponents, the offensive numbers for ECU look a lot better in Greenville (6.4 yards per play). While we did note that this Pirates' defense is seemingly much improved this year, they did give up 49 pts to Temple LY. They've also already given up 34 to NC State and 42 to Navy this year. The oddsmakers are being kind w/ this number (at least from where we sit) and the Over is 4-1 in Temple's last five road contests. 10* Over Temple/East Carolina

10* South Alabama (7:30 ET): I guess I can understand why South Alabama is a double digit dog here. After all, every time they've faced a FBS opponent this year, they've lost by at least 13 pts. (Their only win was 37-14 over Jackson State). The Jaguars have also lost five straight years to Georgia Southern, failing to cover the spread in all five games. All five were decided by at least 15 points. Why should you expect anything different Thursday night? Well, Georgia Southern has also yet to beat a FBS opponent this year! They aren't exactly "favorite material" (if you know what I mean), especially when it comes to laying double digits on the road. Take the points here. 

Georgia Southern certainly failed to impress me last Saturday as they lost 37-24 at home to Louisiana. We've come away impressed w/ Louisiana in the past, but they were playing on the road for a second straight week while Georgia Southern was off a bye. It's a spot you'd expect the Eagles to play better in. Instead, it was a game they never led (despite being +2 in TO's) and got outgained 440-252. The only team the Eagles have beaten this year is Maine and that was by just eight points (26-18) at home. Their other two losses were against Power 5 opponents (LSU, Minnesota) on the road. After winning 10 games a year ago, Ga Southern definitely was a candidate to regress in 2019, but it appears said regression could be more severe than anticipated. 

South Alabama may represent a steep drop in class from a P5 opponent, but we still see them being a "tough out" in this spot, despite the poor history w/ Ga Southern. The Jaguars have taken their lumps so far this year, but they did cover against Nebraska (lost by only 14 in Lincoln) and then last week at La Monroe. It was a 7-pt game LW heading into the 4Q and USA actaully had a 24-18 edge in first downs over ULM. After playing three of the first five games on the road, including B2B weeks, the Jaguars should be pretty motivated for a Thursday night home game on ESPNU. They are 7-2 ATS the L9 times they've been off B2B losses. There was just one time LY where Ga Southern was favored by more than this on the road and we faded them in the spot. They were facing a bad Texas State team and only won the game 15-13. Same thing here. 10* South Alabama

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Surprisingly, Buffalo took two of the three head to head meetings w/ Pittsburgh last season. It's surprisingly because the Sabres finished w/ only 76 points, well out of playoff contention, while the Penguins were a solid playoff team that finished w/ 100 points. Now it did end up being a quick postseason exit for the Pens as they got swept by the Islanders. But that ending to the year should have them motivated as they are set to hit the ice for the first time in 2019. This should be an easy two points for the home team Thursday night.

The longest postseason drought in the league belongs to Buffalo, who has not made it in eight years. Our projections have them sitting out a ninth straight year. While they have Jack Eichel, the roster remains shallow and there's really nothing from the offseason to indicate any kind of significant improvement is on the horizon. Only two teams - Ottawa and New Jersey - had fewer road wins last year. They hired a 60-year old coach (Ralph Krueger) that has been out of the league for six years.

There was some concern over Sidney Crosby's status for the opener, but the Penguins superstar will be on the ice Thursday as his foot checked out just fine. He was hit by the puck in the final preseason game (which was against Buffalo). On the topic of "concern," we expect Evgeni Malkin to bounce back from a career-worst year in 2018-19 (just 21 points). The offseason swap of Kessel for Galchenyuk should end up being a net positive. Give us Matt Murray over Carter Hutton in the battle of goalies in this one. Hutton had a horrible 4-20 SU record in road starts last year for Buffalo. 8* Pittsburgh

8* St. Louis (8:05 ET): The previous two Stanley Cup Champions meet on Opening Night with the Blues hosting the Capitals. Whereas Washington took a more "traditional" (i.e. dominant) path to winning their Cup in '18, it's still hard to wrap your head around what the Blues pulled off last season. As late as January 2nd, they were dead LAST in the league in points. From that point forward, they went 30-10-5 to finish the regular season and then of course went on to hoist the franchise's 1st ever Stanley Cup. Repeating in this league is quite hard to do (just ask the Caps), but we feel there's value on St. Louis in the early going this year, particularly Wednesday night's opener. 

Obviously, there's going to be a lot of emotion in the building Wednesday night. Sometimes that can be a distraction. Other times, it can work to the defending champs (who always open the season w/ a home game) benefit. It was definitely the latter LY w/ the Caps, who obliterated Boston 7-0 on Opening Night. Not saying it'll be that one-sided for the Blues, but we do think they'll have the edge. They were 24-15-2 at home LY in the regular season, winning 20 of the last 29 games here at the Enterprise Center. We also happen to think they are one of the more undervalued defending champs in recent memory.

It is difficult to repeat as champs in this league as only three teams have pulled off the feat in the last 30 years. That and the path the Blues took to winning LY is what have them undervalued coming into the year. Keep in mind they largely bring back the same roster, plus Justin Faulk, who should be a boon to the power play. They also now get a full season of Jordan Binnington in goal. It was his emergence LY that keyed the turnaround. For Washington, Alex Ovechkin is listed as day to day. He's expected to play (returned to practice Tuesday), but it's worth noting he is battling a lower-body injury. The Capitals have lost the last six times they've been an underdog. 8* St. Louis

10* Washington (8:08 ET): This is the matchup we wanted for the National League's Wild Card Game and we got it as the 93-69 Nationals host the 89-73 Brewers. While the difference in wins between the two teams may be quite small, the gap in run differential is massive. A case could be made that Washington (+149 run diff) is as strong as any team as any team in the playoffs save for the three favorites (Astros, Dodgers, Yankees). In our view, they are definitely the 2nd best team in the National League. Meanwhile, Milwaukee (+3 run diff) is easily the weakest team, not just in the NL half of the draw, but of all playoff teams. You've got to "tip your cap" to the way the Brew Crew finished the season (18-5 L23 games), especially in light of the injury to Christian Yelich. But they faced a lot of bad teams down the stretch as only one was a fellow playoff team and only two were above .500. They are very clearly the inferior team in this matchup and we'll play accordingly. 

There were 14 teams in baseball that finished w/ a better YTD run differential than Milwaukee, including non-playoff teams like the Indians, Red Sox, Cubs and Mets. You have to remember that they were in the negative until the final week of the season.  Not only is Yelich lost the rest of the way, but both Lorenzo Cain and Ryan Braun are operating at less than 100 percent. Also, it may be that the Brewers have run out of gas. Three of their five losses since Labor Day came in the final reg season series as they were swept in Colorado. Before you go writing those results off, remember that winning the division (NL Central) was still in play for Milwaukee and that would have meant avoiding this one-game scenario entirely. It also points to another issue w/ the team and that it that they have a losing road record on the year. The Brewers may have swept the Nats in an early season series at Miller Park, but they dropped two of three here in D.C. and in two of the games Washington scored at least 15 runs. Washington went 51-30 at home in the regular season while averaging 5.6 runs per game. 

Pitching is obviously key in the playoffs, especially in this one-game scenario. A traditional outlook on pitching would seem to indicate a massive edge for Washington in this matchup. They turn to Max Scherzer Tuesday. Was 2019 Scherzer's best year? Hardly. But he still turned in a 2.92 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, both of which ranked in the top six among qualified NL starters. He also had 243 strikeouts in 172 1/3 IP. Washington's bullpen is a problem long-term, but one that will be mitigated here by the fact manager Dave Martinez has already said he will turn to Stephen Strasburg, Pat Corbin or both, in relief, if need be. Strasburg and Corbin both join Scherzer in the top 10 in ERA among NL starters as well as hits allowed per nine innings and having 230+ strikeouts. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is going to use Brandon Woodruff as their starter here. Woodruff has made only two starts since July, not allowing a run in either, but both times he exited after just two innings. So don't look too much into his 18-4 TSR. Milwaukee does have an outstanding bullpen, but if they don't have the lead, that won't matter. The Nationals scored over 100 more runs than Milwaukee did in the regular season. Both Scherzer and Woodruff made one regular season start against the team they oppose here. Both were effective in them. But Scherzer remains the more "known" commodity and thus he's the one we're gravitating towards. By the way, the Nats have won their last eight games. 10* Washington

10* Pittsburgh (8:15 ET): A battle of 0-3 teams is certainly not what the ESPN brass had expected here, at least certainly not from the Pittsburgh side of things. But the Steelers are definitely reeling in the wake of Ben Roethlisberger’s season ending injury. Ironically though, the only game Big Ben will end up starting and finishing this year was the team’s worst to date, a 33-3 loss to the Patriots. Losses the last two weeks have both been close, coming by a total of six points. While the total yardage count from last week indicates the Black & Gold were outplayed rather drastically by the 49ers, we expect them to bounce back this week. A loss to the Bengals would certainly be a new low in the Steel City. Lay the points.

The Bengals have also suffered two close losses to start the year, both of theirs coming on the road. They lost by only 1 at Seattle and then by just 4 LW in Buffalo. In between, they were smashed at home by San Francisco, losing 41-13 while giving up 572 yards in the process. Unlike with Pittsburgh, Cincinnati was not expected to be good this year. They were the consensus choice for last place in the AFC North and that’s where we still see them. While they’ve fought hard in the first two road games, that doesn’t necessarily mean they will this third time around. 

The Steelers have dominated this division rivalry, beating the Bengals eight straight times and 11 of the last 12. Getting to face Mason Rudolph instead of Big Ben this time, the Bengals probably feel that “this time could be different.” But they remain one of the very worst teams in the league. We’ve got this spread at closer to a touchdown, placing a lot of value on Pittsburgh at home. The Steelers have won 10 of their previous 11 division games and are 17-9 SU the L26 times they were favored. The number is too low here. 10* Pittsburgh

10* New Orleans (8:20 ET): The Saints as a home underdog? Yes, please! Obviously, we are aware of the Drew Brees injury keeping him out of this game, but that didn't stop New Orleans from going to Seattle last week and winning 33-27 as a 5.5-point underdog. It is very rare to find the Saints getting points at the Mercedes Benz Superdome as it's only happened eight times since 2010. They've gone 6-2 ATS in those games, winning five of them outright. While it's the Brees injury that's largely responsible for this line, there's also a growing amount of respect for Dallas in the marketplace, something that we're not sure whether or not we share in. While the Cowboys are 3-0 SU/ATS, they've beaten the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins, all of whom are bottom five teams. Take the points here. 

These teams met last year, in primetime, and the Cowboys shockingly handled the Saints. We were on Dallas in that Thursday night game, as 7.5-point home underdogs, and they won 13-10. It was a remarkable defensive effort against Drew Brees, but this time it's Teddy Bridgewater that's the Saints QB and the game is in New Orleans. We would be foolish to suggest that the Saints are better long-term w/ Bridgewater at the helm opposed to Brees, but it's not as if the former can play any worse than Brees did in LY's meeting. Brees was held to 127 yards passing in that game. The Saints still only lost by three. Now, exactly nine months later, they get their shot at revenge and it's been noted "in the building" just how much the Saints remember LY's game. 

The Cowboys, traditionally, have not been a good favorite under Jason Garrett. They have covered all three games as chalk this year, but again, you have to consider the opponents. The bottom line is that Dallas SHOULD be 3-0 entering this game. But they should not be the betting favorite. We saw last week the oddsmakers severely underestimated some of the backup QB's being called into duty as they went 6-0 ATS, 5-1 SU and the only SU loss was Pittsburgh, by four points, in a game they probably should have won. Bridgewater, who has been a starter before, is an incredible 13-2 ATS when taking points. That's the best ATS record for any QB as an underdog in the Super Bowl era. He's 24-7 ATS overall as a starter. The Saints are being grossly underestimated in this spot as it's a primetime game at home. 10* New Orleans 

8* Minnesota (4:25 ET): Note - due to the late nature of this pick (being released late A.M. Sunday), analysis will be more brief than usual. Chicago and Minnesota share 2-1 records, but as we always harp on, won-loss records are not always created the same. Chicago’s two wins this year have come against Denver and Washington, two teams that are a combined 0-6. They were fortunate to win in Denver and the Redskins are a complete dumpster fire right now, a team whose defense is so bad that we called for Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears offense to get on track Monday night. (Had the Over). But that win on MNF didn’t really do much for our overall view on the Bears, who aren’t going to be as successful as they were last year. 

Minnesota has dominated in its two wins, racing out to 21-0 leads against Atlanta and Oakland. Both of those games came at home, but even on the road the Vikings SHOULD have beaten the Packers. They outgained Green Bay 7.4 to 4.8 on a per play basis, only to be foiled by a couple of egregious and ill-timed Kirk Cousins turnovers. The Vikes should be able to lean on their defense in this game, however. They are tied for 5th in scoring (15.7 PPG allowed) and face a Bears offense that has yet to gain 300 total yards in any game. As far as Cousins is concerned, the offense should focus on running the ball. Only one team can claim to beat their 193.7 yards per game on the ground.

Minnesota is the better team here, which is already reflected in the line. But expect them to win outright here as they easily could be 3-0 while the Bears could easily be 1-2. Chicago was actually outgained by Washington on Monday night, but clearly benefited from being +4 in turnovers. Teams coming off a win on Monday night have now failed to cover seven straight times. 8* Minnesota

8* Arizona (4:05 ET): Seattle was 10-6 last season and made the playoffs as a Wild Card. We liked them to regress here in 2019, so imagine our shock when they started 2-0. But those victories came under interesting circumstances. The two teams they beat - the Bengals and Steelers - are now a combined 0-6. They were actually outgained by a bad Bengals team, at home, 429-233. They held on to win that game by one. Then they beat Pittsburgh by two, but that was when the Steelers lost Ben Roethlisberger to injury. The injury occurred with the Steelers ahead. Oddsmakers expected the Seahawks to go to 3-0 last week as they faced the Saints w/o Drew Brees at home. But they were upset 33-27 and it wasn’t really that close.

Arizona has yet to win in the Kliff Kingsbury/Kyler Murray era. They did rally for a 27-27 tie w/ the Lions back in Week 1. That’s a Lions team that hasn’t lost. After that, the Cardinals played Baltimore tough, losing by only six on the road. We thought it was a mistake to have them favored last week at home vs. Carolina, even though the Panthers were playing w/o Cam Newton. Sure enough, they lost that game 38-20. But we’ll call for a much better performance at home this week. This line shouldn’t be more than a field goal, in our opinion. 

The Legion of Boom days are long gone in Seattle. This Seahawks secondary gave up 418 yards passing to Andy Dalton in the opener and has faced a backup quarterback for the last six quarters. Murray may be a rookie, but he’s trusted to throw a lot in the Air Raid system. We certainly don’t like Seattle in this price range. They’ve gone just 4-10-1 ATS as a division road favorite under HC Pete Carroll.  They’ve also failed to cover 7 of the last 10 times they’ve been a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, losing four of those games outright. The Cardinals have covered the last five times as a dog of 3 to 7 points. A desperate home dog is worth taking here. 8* Arizona

10* Under Chiefs/Lions (1:00 ET): Kansas City's offense doesn't look like it's missed a beat in year two with Patrick Mahomes as QB. They've scored at least 26 points in every game Mahomes has started in his career. So an Under call might seem a bit risky, but remember we cashed one two weeks ago when they visited Oakland. That game saw Mahomes throw 4 TD passes - all in the second quarter - yet the Under still cashed by a double digit margin as there were no points scored - by the Cheifs or the Raiders - the entire second half! Scoring may be a bit more "evenly distributed" this week in Detroit, but we still feel it won't be enough to go Over. Take the Under. 

The Lions are 2-0-1, the first time they've been unbeaten through three weeks since 2011. Last week, they went to Philadelphia and surprised the Eagles in 27-24 upset as four-point underdogs. Early in the game, they became the 1st team this year to return a kickoff for a TD and ultimately that was the difference between winning and losing as well as the game going Over rather than Under. The Lions' offense was hardly dominant, gaining a season-low 287 total yards. This is not one of the better offenses at running the football, which bodes well for a Chiefs' defense that was gashed on the ground last week by Baltimore. 

The last time these teams combined to go Under was 1988 as the last seven meetings all have gone Over. But this is a really high total for Detroit and even for KC it's the highest to date. The Lions do rank 12th in the league in scoring defense (20.3 PPG allowed) and the Under is 6-0 in their previous six home games. That includes just one this season, but it was a 13-10 win over the Chargers. Mahomes has never played in a dome in his pro career. We don't think the Lions will do much scoring here and we're not sure the Chiefs will hit 30 either. 10* Under Chiefs/Lions

8* Tennessee (1:00 ET):  This is hardly a great matchup for the favored Falcons. First off, it’s against an AFC opponent. Non-conference games have not treated this team well the last several seasons. A loss last week to the Colts was the 12th straight time they failed to cover against an AFC team (1-11 SU!) They are 5-21 ATS L26. It’s a 4-14 ATS mark under Dan Quinn and the franchise is 1-10 ATS and 3-13 SU when favored in these non-conference games. The fact the Titans come in w/ extra time to prepare (played last Thursday) is another disadvantage Atlanta didn’t need. Take the points.

It’s more than just trends working against the Falcons here. The matchup isn’t great either.  The strength of this offense is throwing the football. But the Tennessee defense has performed quite well against the pass this year. A defense that has yet to allow more than 20 points in any game this year is also giving up just 190 pass YPG. That’s top four in the league. Plus, Atlanta QB Matt Ryan is turning the ball over too much. His six interceptions are tied for the league lead and two of them have come in the red zone. Penalties have also been an issue for the Falcons, something that is usually NOT the case w/ Tennessee (save for last week).

Another reason we like the Titans here is the extended prep time. Ten days ago, we faded them as a road favorite in Jacksonville and an anemic attack went down 20-7. The first two teams to lose on Thursday night have come back to win their next game. While Tennessee is rested, Atlanta just suffered a major injury with Keanu Neal tearing his ACL again. This is the second straight season that the All-Pro safety is out with that injury. The defense fell off a cliff w/o him LY. Back to the trends, the Titans are 11-5 SU and 11-3-2 ATS vs. the AFC South. While they failed to cover off a loss LW, the team is still 19-13-1 ATS w/ Mariota in that role. They are also 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS off B2B losses. Let’s not forget they went to Cleveland and won 43-13 in Week 1.  8* Tennessee

8* Hawaii (10:30 ET): We've got Hawaii rated as the better team here, so don't be surprised when they go to Reno this week and win. The Rainbow Warriors already won big for us once this year, on the very first day of the season, when they hosted Arizona and won that game outright 45-38 (as 10-pt dogs). They've since gone 2-1 despite a schedule that included two more Pac 12 teams (beat Oregon State). A 52-20 loss at Washington (still a very good team) was really not as bad as the final score looks. Despite not scoring on any of their first six possessions and turning it over three times, the Warriors were only down 18 entering the 4Q. Last week was a chance to get back on track as they routed FCS Central Arkansas. We'll take the points here.

Meanwhile, Nevada got one over on us last week as they outlasted UTEP 37-21 as 14-point favorites. In the analysis, we conceded UTEP wasn't much of a team, but were willing to grab the points against what we viewed as an overvalued favorite w/ an injury at the QB position. Sure enough, the game was tied 21-21 in the 3Q. The Wolf Pack did not seize the lead for good until there was a little over 16 minutes left of game time. Remember that this is a team that also has suffered a rout at the hands of a Pac 12 opponent (Oregon). Only Nevada lost 77-6 in a very non-competitive effort. There is that season-opening upset of Purdue, but as detailed last week that was a very phony (and lucky) victory. The Wolf Pack's only other win this year was by six over a FCS team, Weber State.

QB Carson Strong is expected back this week for Nevada, but we still view Hawaii as the superior side. Now each of the last two years has seen the Wolf Pack pull an upset, including 40-22 LY in Honolulu. But the Warriors should be motivated by that double revenge angle and the fact they've lost 10 straight games in the state of Nevada (0-5 vs. both UNLV and Nevada). The weather factor (expected to be cold) is probably overrated. Remember Nevada needed to be +5 in turnovers to beat Purdue 34-31 as they were outgained in the game by 115 yards and down 17 in the second half. After three straight TD drives LW, Hawaii was up 28-0 before some turnovers allowed their opponent to hang around. Their QB (Cole McDonald) is the better signal caller here. 8* Hawaii 

8* UNLV (8:00 ET): Rebels HC Tony Sanchez may be coaching for his job at this point as UNLV has started 1-2 w/ its only win coming against a FCS team (Southern Utah) in the season opener. Sanchez, who was a popular hire due to his success coaching high school in the Las Vegas area, has not been able to get this program off the ground. He's had four losing seasons and a fifth could mean he's heading back to high school. But a bye week may have come at the right time for Sanchez as he's had extra time to prepare for a shaky favorite, Wyoming, who is among the most overrated 3-win teams in the entire country. Take the points. 

\We called Wyoming the MOST overrated 3-0 team in the country last week as they went to Tulsa. Things were looking good w/ the Cowboys (+3.5) down 17-7 entering the 4Q. But two shocking TD drives later, they were unbelievably up 21-17 and looking like they might overcome a double-digit deficit for a 4th week in a row. Thankfully, Tulsa did end up scoring a TD and won 24-21. But we should have known better than to lay a -3.5. But now the Pokes are favored and that's more to our liking. Again, this team has been outgained in every game this season and is -98.7 YPG overall! That's worse than UNLV, who is -38.7 YPG! Wyoming still does rate better than UNLV, but not by as much as the oddsmakers are calling for here. 

The last time these Mt West rivals met, it was quite the memorable game w/ UNLV winning 69-66 in 3 OT's back in 2016. The underdog has pulled an outright upset in both meetings during the Sanchez era. The Rebels are 15-7 ATS as road dogs under Sanchez and have covered four of the previous five times they have been getting between 3.5 and 10 points. The bye week allowed for QB Armani Rogers to get healthy and the team is 10-3 ATS when he starts and finishes a game. RB Charles Williams is 2nd in the country in rush yds per game. Wyoming's QB Sean Chambers is completing just 38% of his pass attempts and operating behind a suspect line. With UNLV's next three games against Boise St, Vanderbilt and Fresno State, Sanchez desperately needs a win here or he risks losing his job. Not saying he gets it, but the Rebels will cover. 8* UNLV

10* Under Braves/Mets (7:10 ET): The Braves are jusrt getting ready for the playoffs as they long ago clinched the NL East and will have home field advantage in the LDS over whomever (Cardinals or Brewers) wins the Central. I have to admit that we were wrong about the Braves this year as we thought they'd regress after an 18-win jump in 2018. Not only was there no regression here, the team improved its win total from last year. They've had some good fortune in doing so, going 28-15 in one-run games as well as 11-5 in extra innings. The Braves we'll see tonight, however, will hardly be representative of what we've seen throughout the year or what we'll be seeing in the playoffs. I'm speaking of the offense, which scored only two runs in last night's loss to the Mets.

The Mets were a team we had improving in 2019 and that's what they did. Now said improvement wasn't to the degree Mets' fans had hoped, but it was always going to be difficult to make the playoffs in a tough division. It also didn't help that they started the season in somewhat of a large hole as they were just 40-51 coming out of the All-Star Break. But the second half has seen them go 44-25, which they hope can carryover into next season. Mets' pitching has certainly done its job down the stretch, not giving up more than four runs in 9 of the last 10 games. We're going to be on the Under here. 

Earlier I mentioned that the Braves offense we see tonight isn't exactly representative of what we've seen most of this year. Atlanta is averaging 5.3 rpg, but is resting Ronald Acuna Jr in this series and Freddie Freeman (went 0 for 5 last night) isn't 100% either. That's good news for Mets' starter Steven Matz, who has endured a bit of a rough stretch lately. But Matz had a 3.84 ERA prior to his L2 starts, which is rather respectable, and he's 5-2 w/ a 3.32 ERA in 12 career starts vs. the Braves. He'll be opposed by Mike Foltynewicz, who is having himself a great September w/ a 0.69 ERA in four starts. He's allowed just two runs and 12 hits in 26 IP and the team has gone 4-0. Look for another low-scoring game like last night. 10* Under Braves/Mets

8* Mississippi State (7:00 ET): Miss State played w/o starting QB Tommy Stevens last week, but there was no dropoff w/ backup Garrett Shrader coming in and completing 17 of his 22 pass attempts. That was good enough to earn SEC Freshman of the Week honors as the Bulldogs beat Kentucky 28-13. We had the Under in that game, a winner in its own right, as the defense had just as much to do w/ the win as Shrader did. The status of the Miss State QB situation is somewhat in question going into this game w/ #7 Auburn, but that's okay as "defense travels" and we like MSU as an underdog. Take the points.

Auburn is one of three teams that's started 4-0 ATS. It's probably not coincidental that we're also playing against one of the other two in this 3-game report, that being SMU. Like SMU, the Tigers are off a big upset on the road last week as they went to Texas A&M and demonstrated they were the better football team, winning 28-20 as 4-pt dogs. The game wasn't really that close though as Auburn never trailed and was up 21-3 going into the 4th quarter. They did end up getting outgained though as A&M had three long scoring drives in the 4Q.  That was the first big "true" road win for QB Bo Nix as the Tigers now have beaten both Oregon & Texas A&M away from home (Oregon was a neutral site). But let's see how they do in a pretty clear letdown spot, laying more than one score, with a road game at Florida (#9) on deck. 

It's surprising how few times Auburn has been a home favorite of -7.5 to -10 through the years. But they failed to cover 9 of the last 11 times in the role. No matter who has been the QB, Miss State doesn't get beat big often, unless they are facing Alabama. The Bulldogs did lose to Kansas State earlier in the year, by 7, in Starkville. But Kansas State was probably underrated coming into the year. That was the game starting QB Tommy Stevens got hurt and the difference in the game wound up being a 4Q kick return for a TD by Kansas State. Miss State had the total yards edge in that game. Remember that Auburn easily could have lost the opener to Oregon as they never led until the final 10 seconds. Miss State won this game a year ago, 23-9. They are being undervalued in what is a "sandwich" spot for Auburn. 8* Mississippi State 

10* Over East Carolina/Old Dominion (6:00 ET): This is a similar type deal to last week's top total on the Under in Kentucky-Miss State. Only this time, we're looking at an Over. What's the similarity then? Well, as noted last week, Kentucky & Miss State had combined to go 6-0 Over in their first six games. Here, the teams have combined to 7-0 to the Under. We can't wholeheartedly endorse either offense, but b/c of the OU records, this number is low. Too low. It's one of the lowest on the board Saturday. These teams combined for 72 points last season, a 37-35 ECU win as seven-point favorites. Might not be that high-scoring again, but it goes Over. 

The total for that meeting LY in Greenvile was 60.5. Thus, it's quite the drop a year later (almost two touchdowns). That ECU win LY even came before current QB Holton Ahlers took over. Interestingly, Old Dominion's new DC (David Blackwell) was East Carolina's DC last season. Blackwell's new unit is showing similar improvement to what we saw w/ ECU LY as the Monarchs gave up only 244 total yds. But don't let the fact ECU scored only 19 last week fool you. The Pirates put up 480 total yds on William & Mary. But they settled for five field goal attempts, missing one. The Pirates' offense should know what what ODU is going to do defensively here due to the familiarity w/ the coordinator. They did score 48 themselves in a win earlier in the year over Gardner-Webb. 

Blackwell leaving ECU does adversely affect their defense. While we thought the Pirates only scoring 19 last week was misleading, so was the fact they only gave up seven points.  W&M had three drives of 36+ yards ending w/ them turning it over on downs. The Pirates won't be able to bend like that w/o breaking again this week as they are facing a FBS opponent. After playing the defenses of Va Tech and Virginia, Old Dominion will welcome this chance to face a defense that has allowed over 480 YPG its first two times playing on the road. The Pirates allowed 34 and 42 pts in those games as well. ODU actually led Virginia 17-0 in the first half last week. The game ended up staying Under by only 2 points and that was vs. a much better defense. 10* Over East Carolina/Old Dominion

8* South Florida (4:00 ET): If you're a regular client, then you may remember how we routinely faded USF down the stretch last year. The Bulls had actually started the year 7-0, but we called them the most overrated team in the country at the time and made our mark by cashing numerous tickets at their expense. They finished the season at 7-6 w/ all six losses coming by double digits against bowl teams. That losing skid bled into this year as the Bulls lost their first two games (Wisconsin, at Georgia Tech) before finally winning two weeks ago, here in Tampa, against South Carolina State. It was the program's first victory in nearly 11 months! 

Now we're not saying that SMU is as overrated as USF was at this time last year. But the Ponies are in a tricky spot here. Last week saw them go to TCU and come away w/ a 41-38 upset. Not only did they snap a record seven-game losing streak to the Horned Frogs, but it was also the program's first win against a ranked Power 5 opponent since 1986! They were 7.5-point underdogs. Now they have to turn around and lay points on the road, against a rested opponent. The Mustangs are one of three teams in the country to start 4-0 ATS, so they've clearly been undervalued in the early going. Again, we're not saying they are anywhere near as overrated as USF was last year. But in the power ratings, they are the weakest 4-0 SU team in the country right now. 

Led by QB Shane Buechele, this would be SMU's first 4-0 start since 1984, the "heyday" of the program and before it got the infamous "Death Penalty." A transfer from Texas, it's not shocking to see Buechele thriving in Sonny Dykes' offense as his receiving corps here is actually comparable to what they have right now in Austin! But USF has given SMU fits in the past, taking the previous three meetings including a 24-pt win the last time here in Tampa. SMU may have been able to snap a losing skid against one opponent last week, but that was as an underdog. Both road wins this year have been by 7 pts or less and they're 0-2 ATS as road chalk under Dykes. USF made a QB change for the South Carolina State game w/ redshirt frosh Jordan McCloud replacing senior Blake Barnett. McCloud accounted for five TDs in the win and has now had an extra week of practice. Don't be surprised if USF surprises here. 8* South Florida

10* Florida Atlantic (3:30 ET): Unless I'm missing something here, this line is an eye-opener. Last week Clemson HC Dabo Swinney did his best to hype the Charlotte program, but the 52-10 result there tells us that was probably nothing more than "coach-speak." Sure, the 49ers are scoring more this year, averaging 47 PPG against non-Clemson foes. But that includes games vs. Gardner-Webb (FCS) and UMass (who is the worst FBS team in the country). FAU is a team we had bouncing back in 2019 and after taking their lumps the first two games (against Ohio State & UCF), Lane Kiffin's Owls have put up 40+ points in B2B wins. This is a big revenge game for FAU, who lost as 17-pt home favorites to Charlotte in LY's regular season finale (costing them bowl eligibility). Obviously, the line is a LOT more favorable this time around. 

The road team has actually won all four meetings between these teams. Last year, it was Charlotte kicking a 56 yard FG as time expired for the 27-24 upset. FAU led that game 21-10 at the half and would go on to outgain the 49ers by 112 yards. If losing that game doesn't have the Owls motivated here, then I'm not sure what to say about Kiffin. Two years ago, he came to FAU and engineered a massive turnaround, leading the team to 11 wins. There was a predictable dropoff LY, perhaps more severe than expected, but 2019 should see the Owls return to the top of the C-USA East Division. Meanwhile, Charlotte was picked for last. Yet, look at this line! Doesn't make much sense to me. 

Charlotte's offense might be "improved," but the defense remains really bad, especially at stopping the run. This is interesting b/c LY the 49ers were Top 10 IN THE COUNTRY against the run, allowing just 105 YPG. But FAU still ran for 187 yards against them. That was w/ Devin Singletary (graduated), but he accounted for less than half the total in LY's game. FAU's run game has dipped w/o Singletary, but they should be able to get on track here against a Charlotte defense allowing over 200 YPG over land. Keep in mind that FAU's YTD rushing total is still severely hampered from facing Ohio State. QB Chris Robison delivered B2B 300+ yd passing games in wins over Ball State and Wagner. Prior to two weeks ago vs. UMass, Charlotte had been favored over a FBS opponent only ONCE in their history! Now look at this line. 10* Florida Atlantic

8* Notre Dame (3:30 ET): This looks to be the rare time where the public has cooled on the Fighting Irish as they are off yet another loss to a Top 5 opponent, that being Georgia last week. But the Irish certainly played better than they usually do in that spot, losing by only six to a team that is certainly among the four best in the entire country. The idea of a "moral victory" is probably offensive to those in South Bend, but this remains a Top 10 team in the country. But after most of the nation watched them lose such a high-profile game, they aren't going to want to lay double digits w/ them against a fellow ranked foe. Our recommendation is to do it. There is a huge gap between Notre Dame and Virginia, even larger than what the oddsmakers are saying here. 

Virginia is 4-0 and ranked #18 in the country. However, they may be among the most overrated teams by the pollsters. We don't even have them in our Top 35, let alone the Top 20. Tip your cap to the job done by Bronco Mendenhall here in Charlottesville, but his Cavaliers simply aren't ready to compete w/ a team like Notre Dame quite yet. The Hoos were quite lucky to escape w/ wins against Florida State and Old Dominion the L2 weeks and those games were at home. ODU actually outgained them as Virginia had only 244 yds total. A lot of people were fading them in that spot and for good reason. We faded them vs. Florida State and that looked like it was going to be an outright upset before the Seminoles gave the game away (still covered). 

Notre Dame has a top 10 defense in terms of efficiency, thus you should look for UVA to struggle again moving the football. Consider that the Cavaliers failed to score until there were only 7 mins left in the 1H vs. Old Dominion. One of their three second half TD's came from the defense.  Notre Dame, led by QB Ian Book, also has the edge offensively in this game as it was just two weeks ago they put up 66 points here at home. Yes, that was against New Mexico. But the bottom line is that Virginia is very average both offensively and on special teams. The Irish won't need to score a ton here, but will score enough to win by at least two touchdowns. The only teams they've lost to since the start of last season are: Clemson and Georgia. 8* Notre Dame 

8* Arizona State (10:30 ET): Cal may be 4-0, but I have a hard time believing this is the 15th best team in the country (as they have been labeled by the AP). In my own personal power ratings, I have the Bears outside the Top 40! Yes, they do have two "true" road wins against Washington and Ole Miss, the former of which is a legit top 20 team. But Ole Miss is a team we faded back in Week 1 (at Memphis) and haven't really been impressed w/ ever since. Still, the Rebels offense put up 500+ yards on the heralded Cal defense (after putting up just 173 in the loss to Memphis!) and the Bears needed a goal line stand at the end of the game to preserve a 28-20 win. Cal's resume now includes three wins by eight points or less (including North Texas, who outgained them) and a 2 TD win over a FCS school (Cal Davis). Not convinced that the better team isn't the one getting points here as Arizona State has already gone to Michigan State this year and won outright. Take the points. 

The key to Cal's resurgence over the last two years has been their defense, which can claim one of the best secondaries in the entire country. But that defense was shredded last week by Ole Miss and the offense in Berkeley remains a huge liability. While they put up 433 total yds last week at Ole Miss, a lot of that came on big passing plays in situations that weren't all too favorable. Somehow QB Chase Garber was able to go 12 of 17 for 245 yds passing on plays where the offense was either 2nd & 7 (or longer), 3rd & 4 (or longer) or 4th down. Let's see him do that again. (Hint: we don't think he'll be able to). Last year, a more experienced Cal offense (10 starters back) could only manage 21.5 PPG. This year's Cal offense returned only four starters. They've yet to score more than 28 pts in any game. 

Arizona State's defense isn't too shabby either. The Sun Devils had allowed just seven points in each of the first three games en route to a 3-0 start. But they then wound up losing the Pac 12 opener to Colorado 34-31, a game which was pretty even throughout. As I said earlier, the Sun Devils already hold a win in East Lansing. So losing at home to Colorado didn't make much sense, other than it was a "letdown" spot. Herm Edwards has done a much better job in Tempe than most expected and will have his team ready to go here. Including the win over Michigan State, Edwards is now 4-1 ATS as a road dog (the only loss coming LY, ironically to Colorado). He's beaten Michigan State twice now. 8* Arizona State

10* Arizona (9:40 ET): This won't be the first time we've made the case that the D'backs have played better than their record, but it might be the last as their season is nearing the finish line. For much of the year, the D'backs sported a run differential that was comparable to the other NL playoff contenders. Several of those teams have since increased their differentials while Arizona's has remained the same. But consider that Milwaukee (who made the playoffs) has a YTD run differential of just +9 (despite winning 89 games). Arizona has 82 wins but has outscored its opponents by 65 runs this season. 

San Diego has been outscored by 102 runs in 2019. They've also lost three straight coming into Friday. The signing of Manny Machado in the offseason deluded some into thinking the Padres might be a playoff contender in '19, but we never bought that. They just made a managerial change with Rod Barajas replacing Andy Green. The team has gone 1-5 under Barajas as they were just swept at home by the Dodgers. Overall, the club has dropped 12 of its last 14 games and they've also lost five of six games against Arizona this month. The offense has scored more than four runs just one time in the L10 games. 

Arizona just took two of three from a St. Louis team trying to win its division, so they haven't given up on the season. While just 8-8 vs. San Diego on the year, they've outscored the Padres 80-57 in those games, so the WL record "should" be a whole lot better. Taylor Clarke will be the starter for Friday's opener. Despite not having started a game in over a month, Clarke is actually the most profitable starter in the Arizona rotation. He'll be opposed by Eddie Lauer, who has a 6.27 ERA on the road. Lauer pitched reasonably well against the D'backs last weekend, giving up two runs in six innings, but the Padres still lost the game 9-0. He isn't likely to be as effective here at Chase Field. Another edge for the hosts is they had Thursday off (Padres didn't). The D'backs are 14-5 after an off-day. 10* Arizona

7* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): This is probably less of an endoresement on the Phillies and more a fade of the Marlins at a decent price. After all, the Phils have lost six straight heading into tonight. They were just swept in a five-game series by the Nats (which included a doubleheader Tuesday). Their playoff chances were already slim heading into that series, but now they are completely dead as the NL postseason field is set. But the Phils still can finish w/ a winning record this season - if they can sweep the last place Marlins, who are 56-103 and have been outscored by 187 runs. We like the home team to pick up an easy win here.

Miami, as expected, has been the National League's worst team - by a comfortable margin - all season. Every other team in the Senior Circuit could still end up w/ at least 70 wins. The Marlins won't win 60. They have been dreadful offensively, scoring only 604 runs in 159 games. The next fewest runs scored by any NL team is 674. All but three teams have scored at least 143 runs more than Miami. Can't say we love their starter for Friday's game either. Pablo Lopez has a 7-13 TSR on the year, including 2-7 on the road where he has an ERA of 7.27. Back in April, Lopez pitched here in the City of Brotherly Love and gave up four runs in 5 2/3 IP. Miami is off a win here as they rallied to beat the Mets 4-2 yday. But they're just 20-35 after a win for the season. 

The Phillies' six-game losing streak has them below .500 for the first time all year. A return home w/ a chance to finish w/ a winning record should provide some motivation, if for no other reason than to silence the fanbase. They'll send Vince Velasquez out tonight. He had won three straight decisions before running into Cleveland on Sunday. The Phillies lost that game 10-1 w/ Velasquez allowing four of the runs, but three were unearned. This will be Velasquez's first time starting at home in a month. In fact, he's made only two starts at home since the beginning of August. The team won both. We're a little surprised that the Phils have a losing record vs. Miami this year (7-9). Look for that to be rectified here. 7* Philadelphia

10* Over A's/Mariners (10:10 ET): Oakland moves on to Seattle after taking two of three in Los Angeles (from the Angels) to start the week. Last night's 3-2 win allowed them to preserve their tenuous lead in the Wild Card (now one-half game ahead of the Rays), though Cleveland lost, giving the A's a two-game cushion to still make the playoffs. It's tough not to like the spot here for Oakland as they are 9-1 this season as a road favorite of -175 or higher and facing a last place team that's been shutout each of its last two games. But the price is just too high. The A's should score plenty in this game, which makes the Over a better value in our opinion. 

Sean Manaea toes the rubber tonight for Oakland as he looks to continue a successful return from shoulder surgery. Manaea has looked great so far, allowing just three runs in 23 2/3 IP, which is good for a 1.14 ERA and 0.803 WHIP. Opponents are hitting just .150 against him. But it's still a small sample size and you shouldn't be so sure that he'll be able to maintain this level of performance. There's also the fact that Oakland has had a tougher time w/ Seattle than you might imagine. They've gone just 8-7 head to head this season & that's after winning the L3 games. They have not played since July.

Seattle will be glad to get away from Houston where they were shutout each of the last two days (lost both games 3-0). It should be a bittersweet night here as Felix Hernandez makes what will likely be his last ever start in this park. King Felix lost his crown some time ago and isn't about to regain it. Shockingly, he has won just ONE of his last 25 appearances! He's 1-7 w/ a 6.51 ERA and 1.523 WHIP in 14 starts this year and was rocked again his last time out (by Baltimore, no less), giving up five runs in five innings. Oakland averages 5.6 rpg on the road, so they should score a decent number here. Probably they can score enough to almost send this one Over themselves. The Mariners should help out a little w/ a few runs of their own. The Over is 85-62-11 in all Seattle games this season. 10* Over A's/Mariners

10* Philadelphia (8:20 ET): The underdog has gone a perfect 3-0 this season on Thursday night. We've been on the dog each of the last two weeks with Bucs upsetting the Panthers and the Jaguars upsetting the Titans. The Eagles certainly hope the underdog trend continues this week as they are 0-3 ATS and more importantly (for them) 1-2 SU. They face a Green Bay team that is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS, but the Pack have hardly been dominant in getting there. The Packers have actually been outgained in all three games and their YPG differential of -41.6 is certainly not what you'd expect from an undefeated team. They were fortunate to be +3 in turnovers LW at home vs. Denver and the week before actually saw them get outgained 7.0 to 4.9 by Minnesota on a per play basis. In a desperate spot for the Eagles, we're going to take the points in this matchup. 

Coming into the year, we did hail the Packers as being one of the most likely teams in the league to improve on last season's win total. Seeing them win only six times w/ a healthy Aaron Rodgers last year was somewhat shocking. So a coaching change was made (Matt LaFleur replacing Mike McCarthy). LaFleur, a 1st time HC, was supposed to reinvigorate Rodgers. But the offense is just 28th in YPG (286.7 YPG) and are 30th on third downs, converting just 25% of them time. Instead it's been the Packers defense that's been reinvigorated. They have 12 sacks (3rd most) and a league-leading +6 turnover differential. Those numbers are likely to lead most teams to a 3-0 start. But LB Za'Darius Smith just popped up on the injury list Wednesday (knee). We're not convinced this Packers' defense can continue to carry an offense that's playing so poorly.

It's also helped that Green Bay's three opponents have all shot themselves in the foot. Meanwhile, the Eagles were the ones shooting themselves in the foot last week vs. Detroit. They allowed a TD on special teams, turned it over twice (leading to six Lions' points) and failed to score after blocking a FG. QB Carson  Wentz also didn't have a full compliment of weapons LW as both starting WR's were out as was his TE for most of the game. But both Alshon Jeffrey and Dallas Goebert are expected back Thursday. Philly is scoring more than Green Bay so far, which is another reason to like them plus the points here. As underdogs, the Eagles have covered 9 of the last 13 times, winning eight of those games outright! 10* Philadelphia

10* Toronto (7:07 ET): Did the Blue Jays wave the proverbial "white flag" by electing to go w/ Thomas Pannone on Tuesday? Originally, it was supposed to be Anthony Kay starting, but he was a late scratch due to a back issue. So, with their backs against the wall, the Jays went w/ Pannone and that's about as close to a guaranteed loss as they can have. Pannone entered last night w/ a 0-4 record in six starts (1-5 TSR) and an 11.03 ERA + 1.648 WHIP. Sure enough, he allowed three runs in the first inning and the Blue Jays were playing catch up from there. They eventually lost ... as it didn't help they were facing Dylan Bundy, the Orioles best starter who - ironically - was originally supposed to start Monday's opener but got pushed back.

The loss last night was the Jays first to Baltimore in five meetings this month. They just swept them in Camden Yards a week ago. Obviously, we all know that the Orioles are a very bad baseball team. Their 52 wins actually represent an improvement from last season (when they won only 47). But they've still been outscored by ... runs this season. Because of last night's win, there's a chance they may end up w/ a better run differential than 2018's -270. This year, only the Tigers have a worse record/run differential than the O's. Bottom line is that you should expect Toronto to bounce back tonight.

The pitching situation should now be cleared up as Jacob Waguespack is set to start Wednesday's game. We can't say that Waguespack has been great, but he has allowed 3 ER or fewer in 10 of his last 11 starts. Two of them saw him get hit w/ some unearned runs, but he's been fairly solid. Certainly much better than Baltimore's choice to toe the rubber here. That would be Gabriel Ynoa, who remains winless in 12 starts w/ a 1-11 TSR. That's bad. He has an 8.10 ERA on the road. Ynoa wasn't all that bad when he started against Toronto at home last week, but he still gave up two home runs and the Orioles lost 8-4. Baltimore hasn't won B2B games all September and that's what this ultimately boils down to, fading a horrible team off a rare win. 10* Toronto 

10* Under Cardinals/D'backs (9:40 ET): We rode the Cardinals to a pretty easy 9-7 victory last night. Despite the back & forth, high scoring nature of the ballgame, St. Louis never trailed and in fact enjoyed a four run advantage on two different occasions. It was their fifth win in a row overall. In the analysis for Monday's game, I made mention of the tremendous pitching the Cards have gotten this year and how that's a major reason why they are very likely to win the NL Central. Well, they got away w/ a less than stellar Adam Wainwright outing yday. That's a good sign as they're definitely more likely to get a good outing here from Jack Flaherty, who has been simply sensational the entire second half of the season. Only this time, we're going Under. 

Flaherty did throw a season-high 118 pitches his last time out. But he still allowed only one run over eight innings as the Cardinals beat the Cubs 5-4 last Friday. It was the 14th consecutive start where Flaherty allowed 3 ER or fewer. He's gone at least 6 IP in 12 of those and 7+ in eight. Seven times he hasn't given up any runs and he's allowed two or less 12 times. Overall, he has a 1.07 ERA in those L14 starts w/ a 113-21 KW ratio in 92 1/3 IP. The Under is 10-2-2. Opponents have hit just .148 against him. Flaherty has a case to be the NL Cy Young Award winner from where we sit. 

Something else pointed out in yday's analysis is how the D'backs have been LESS effective at the plate at home this year (compared to the road). That really wasn't apparent last night, but look for it to be the case against Flaherty. Now officially eliminated from playoff contention, Arizona looks to slow St. Louis down w/ Mike Leake, a trade deadline acquisition who has been pretty good for them. In his last three starts, Leake has a 3.32 ERA and 1.105 WHIP. He has made five consecutive quality starts, even though the home run ball has been an issue for him. The Under is 4-1-1 in his six starts for Arizona and it's 9-4-1 the L14 times these teams have met. It cashed all three games in the only previous series here in 2019. 10* Under Cardinals/D'backs

8* Atlanta (8:15 ET): I presume the reason that the Braves are available so cheap tonight is because they're facing Danny Duffy, who has pitched really well of late. But Duffy still pitches for the Royals, a very bad team that is one of four this year to lose 100+ games. And while Duffy has a 0.95 ERA and 0.789 WHIP his L3 starts, the Royals have still gone just 1-2 in those games. While Atlanta is pretty well locked into hosting whomever wins the Central (probably St. Louis) in the NLDS, they can still finish w/ 100 wins, which would be quite the accomplishment. Kansas City's L10 games have all come against playoff teams and they have gone just 2-8. Back the Braves here. 

One Braves player we won't be seeing tonight is Freddie Freeman as the first baseman didn't make the trip due to an elbow injury. He's getting ready for the playoffs and that's fine by us. Honestly, the Braves shouldn't even need Freeman to beat a lowly opponent like KC. One player they can turn to is starter Julio Teheran, who had been lights out for four straight starts before running into the Phillies each of his last two times out. But while Teheran may have his struggles w/ the Phillies, there's been no such issue for him in two career starts vs. the Royals where his ERA is 0.69. Now Atlanta did lose both games, one by a 2-0 score earlier this year. But they are simply too talented to lose to the Royals for a third straight time this year. 

Yes, Kansas City did take both games in Atlanta back in July. That series came right after the All-Star Break, so perhaps there was a "hangover" for the Braves. Regardless, look for them to exact some revenge here. Teheran threw six strong innings in his start in that series, but got hit w/ TWO unearned runs, which was the difference in the ballgame. Don't look for Atlanta to get shutout again here, even facing Duffy, as they get a DH in the lineup and are already averaging an impressive 5.2 rpg on the road. While Duffy's L3 starts have been great, he still has a 4.30 ERA and 1.305 WHIP on the year. Atlanta is 50-26 vs. losing teams in 2019 and should roll here. 8* Atlanta

10* St. Louis (9:40 ET): The Cardinals had themselves quite the weekend at Wrigley Field, sweeping a four-game series from the Cubs. Every win was by one run, the opener in extra inning, followed by three that saw them rally in the late innings. In the interest of full disclosure, we backed the Cubs each of the last two days. That wasn't a shot at St. Louis though, rather an endorsement of what we thought the Cubs would be capable of doing in those spot. Turns out we were incorrect. But the bottom line is this pitching staff continues to give up very few runs (3rd fewest in all of baseball) and they've got perhaps their hottest starter on the mound Monday. Go w/ them. 

Arizona is team we've endorsed as being better than their record previously. But that's all immaterial now. At 80-76 and off a loss Sunday, their playoff hopes are minuscule. Another curious item w/ the D'backs is that their offense declines here at Chase Field. The gap in runs per game scored at home and on the road has shrunk recently. But their hitters would seem to be "up against it" today facing Adam Wainwright, who has allowed all of 1 earned run his last four starts. Needless to say, St. Louis has won all four of those games. They've won 7 of his L8 starts overall and 12 of the last 14. 

Wainwright will be opposed here by Alex Young. Two starts ago, Young found himself in the unusual situation of allowing five unearned runs. He was better his last time out, but still issued four walks and the D'backs lost that game 12-6 to the Marlins. In Young's last two starts, opposing teams have scored a total of 23 runs. This after a stretch earlier in the year when Arizona was actually shutout in three straight Young starts. The Cardinals have already clinched a playoff spot, bu are trying to nail down the division. They have dominated the D'backs head to head, winning 25 of the last 37 meetings. 10* St. Louis

10* Over Bears/Redskins (8:20 ET): The Chicago offense hasn't looked so good in the first two games, scoring all of 19 points. Quite frankly, they are lucky that number isn't 16. Were it, that means the Bears would be coming into Monday night at 0-2. But new kicker Eddie Pineiro booted a 54 yard FG as time expired LW in Denver, giving his team a 16-14 win. Lucky for Chicago, this week they are facing a Redskins' defense that is the proverbial "gift that keeps on giving." Look for QB Mitchell Trubisky and company to have a "breakout" game here, helping this one go Over the total. 

Washington has actually started both of its games well. They were up 17-0 over the Eagles in the 2nd quarter back in Week 1. They also shut out the high-powered Cowboys' offense for a quarter and half last week. But in both games, the defense fell apart in the second half. The Redskins have given up 63 points total and 455 YPG. They are allowing 6.8 yards per play. In the second halves alone, the Skins have allowed 569 total yards. That's almost as many as the Bears' defense has allowed total this year. Again, I expect the Bears offense to wake up from it "early season slumber" here.

You're likely to hear about some trends of when the road team is favored on MNF, the games tend to stay Under. Plus, the Bears' last seven games (dating back to last season) have all stayed Under. When you've got a top defense and a suspect offense (like the Bears do), that's not a surprise. But note Washington QB Case Keenum hasn't been that bad so far, throwing for 601 yards and five touchdowns w/ zero interceptions. The Redskins have averaged 24 PPG against two good teams (Eagles, Cowboys) so far. So don't be surprised if they score more than you think here. The Over is 13-4 in Chicago's L17 road games vs. teams that have a losing home record. 10* Over Bears/Redskins

7* Washington (7:05 ET): This is a really tough spot for the Phillies. They had to play the Sunday night game (in Cleveland) and lost there 10-1, effectively ending their admittedly dim postseason hopes. That leaves them six games back of the Wild Card w/ only eight to play. It's not like we really had a ton of faith in the Phils anyway. This is a team that's been sporting a negative run differential (currently -11) much of the season. Now they head to the Nation's capital to face a Nationals team that very likely WILL be a Wild Card and wants to have home field advantage for that game. 

Making matters even tougher for Philly is that they'll be facing Pat Corbin tonight. The Nats starter has been quite good this year, especially when pitching at home. He has a 2.00 ERA and 0.93 WHIP here and the team has gone 11-3 in those 14 starts. Perhaps even more promising from the Nats' perspective is the fact Corbin has a 3-0 TSR vs. the Phillies in 2019. All three starts came in the first half of the season and were quality outings. In 19 IP, Corbin allowed just five runs in the three starts and had 24 K's. I haven't even mentioned yet what he did his last time out, allowing just two runs to St. Louis (both unearned) w/ 11 K's, giving him a 2.05 ERA his L7 starts overall. That last start was on the road too. 

After dropping a game to Miami Sunday, by a score of 5-3, the Nats really could use a bounce back game at the plate. They'll be facing a pitcher in Zach Eflin, who has not allowed a run in consecutive starts. But one of those lasted only 3 2/3 innings and both were against the same opponent (Atlanta). He's faced Washington three times this year, with the Phillies going 2-1, but the loss came opposite Corbin in this stadium. The Phillies are not a good road team and are just 8-17 as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. Eflin's TSR in his L21 road starts is just 5-16 and the Nats average 5.5 rpg at home. 7* Washington 

10* Cleveland (8:20 ET): What a difference a week makes in the eyes of the public. The Browns have gone from trendy road favorite to unpopular home dog, which is quite the week to week turnaround in this league. Making the perception all the more head-scratching is how they handled the short-handed Jets Monday night, winning that game 23-3 in dominant fashion. Perhaps some still have a "bad taste" in their mouth from the Browns' first game, which was an ugly 43-13 loss here at home to Tennessee. But that game got away from them late, making the final score at least a little misleading. An underdog for the 1st time here in 2019, we'll grab Cleveland plus the points Sunday night in what shapes us as the franchise's biggest game in years - hosting the defending NFC Champion Rams. 

Cleveland has done well in the past in this spot. At least recently. They were 4-1 ATS as a home dog last season and are also 4-1 ATS getting four points or less (home or road) w/ Baker Mayfield as the starting QB. They have also won and covered all three primetime games w/ Mayfield as the starter. Again, all trends only go back to last season, but there's no denying that this is a "new Browns team," at least compared to most of the moribund offerings this franchise has provided over the L20 years. Yes, they caught a break Monday night w/ the Jets having to turn to a 3rd string QB. But it hardly appeared as if Trevor Siemian was going to do anything productive before getting hurt. The Browns' defense allowed just 262 yds last week and a lot of that game in "garbage time." They do have some injuries to deal w/ on that side of the ball this week, but can get through it. 

In particular, look for the Browns to potentially win this game "in the trenches" w/ a talented defensive line going against an inexperienced Rams' O-line. There could be as many as three Rams lineman w/ three or fewer starts on their career resume playing tonight. On offense, QB Baker Mayfield must get rid of the ball quicker. He seems aware of that issue and thus we look for it to get rectified here. The Rams have caught some breaks of their own the first two games, facing an injured Cam Newton and a Saints team that lost Drew Brees to injury. We're not nearly as high on the Rams as the market seems to be. They have not covered three of the previous five times they've been a road fave of -3.5 to -7 points. 10* Cleveland

8* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Well, let's try this again, even though the Cubs' slide continued yday w/ yet another one-run loss. It was their fifth loss in a row, all at home, the last four all coming by a single run. To call this slide "ill-timed" would be quite the understatement as it's dropped the Cubs three games off the playoff pace. Forget about winning the division, it'll now take a memorable finish just to get the Wild Card. What's so perplexing about this losing streak is that it has come entirely at Wrigley Field. The Cubs' 51 home wins this year still ranks in the top five. They have a +112 YTD run differential, which when compared to Milwaukee's YTD run differential (-3), you'd think it would be the Cubs that are far more "deserving" of the postseason appearance. We shall see. 

Rarely do you see a home team, especially one as good as the Cubs, get swept in a four-game series. But that's the predicament they face Sunday. I'm calling for an end to the slide, not only because I still believe in this team, but also due to what starter Yu Darvish has accomplished lately. Darvish has 27 strikeouts in his L2 starts and has allowed just five runs in his last four starts (26 IP). Four of those came his last time out. But he's still allowed 1 or 0 ER in four of his last six starts overall. He has a 2.70 ERA since the All-Star Break. Cardinals' starter Miles Mikolas often struggles on the road where he's gone 4-8 in 16 starts (7-9 TSR) w/ a 5.80 ERA and 1.438 WHIP. So I give Darvish the edge in today's pitching matchup. 

Making this Cubs' losing streak all the more strange is that the five games that preceded it, all wins, saw them outscore opponents 59-18! As I already mentioned, four of the losses have been one-run games. In this series, they've twice blown leads and also lost an extra-inning game. Yesterday's loss was the most painful as closer Craig Kimbrel gave up B2B HR's in the top of the ninth to lose 9-8. A sweep here would be truly unkind. Look for the Cubs to avoid that fate as this is their longest losing streak since April. Their season is very much on the line here. 8* Chi Cubs

8* Over Broncos/Packers (1:00 ET): We've seen eight quarters of this Packers' offense and truthfully the results haven't been all that great. They've scored all of four touchdowns, three of them coming in successive drives to open last week's game vs. Minnesota. Yet, here they are at 2-0 SU and leading the NFC North w/ a pair of division wins. Credit for the start can go to the defense, which has done its job in allowing just two touchdowns in two games (and only 19 pts total) while Aaron Rodgers is still learning 1st year HC Matt LaFleur's offense. But this week we're going to look for a bit higher scoring game w/ the Broncos. Take the Over. 

Denver is 0-2, but one thing they have in common w/ the Pack is both games have stayed Under the total. In fact, the Broncos' last 10 games have all stayed Under as have 15 of the last 18. There was some definite skepticism over Joe Flacco's arrival here in the Mile High City, at this stage of his career. But so far Flacco has completed 69% of his passes for 560 yards. That's not bad. It was a brutal loss to the Bears (who the Packers beat in Week 1) last week on a last second 53-yard field goal. Both Broncos' losses this year have technically been by one possession as they fell 24-16 in Oakland back in Week 1. 

Denver may not be a common opponent for Rodgers and the Pack, but they are quite familiar w/ the defensive scheme run by Broncos' 1st year HC Vic Fangio, who previously served as the Bears' defensive coordinator. This Broncos defense simply isn't as good as what Fangio was fielding in the Windy City as they've yet to register a turnover or single sack. As for that Packers defense, which has been labeled as much improved by everyone (including Rodgers himself), it still allowed 7.0 yards per play last week, whch was second most in the league. Many times w/ these 3-game reports, I have a prevailing theme and in every game here we're going Over w/ two teams that have gone Under in each of the first two games. 8* Over Broncos/Packers 

8* Over Raiders/Vikings (1:00 ET): The Raiders never seem to have much success in these 1 PM ET kickoffs and truth be told, we don't anticipate them doing too well this week in Minneapolis, their first road game of 2019. They're off a 28-10 loss to Kansas City, which was a short week (played Monday night in Week 1), but it certainly didn't bother them early as they jumped out to a 10-0 first quarter lead. But from there, they wouldn't score again. The defense gave up four touchdowns in the second quarter, all TD passes by Patrick Mahomes, but no points in the second half. A second half w/ no scoring is quite rare, but we'll take it as we were on the Under! This week though, it's a different story. Take the Over. 

As mentioned in the Broncos/Packers writeup, the Minnesota offense averaged a whopping 7.0 yards per play last week. But unfortunately, they still lost, 21-16. Scoring only 16 points while gaining 7.0 YPP is just about as rare as no points being scored in the entire second half of a NFL game. In the Vikings' case, much of the blame for last week's loss can be placed on Kirk Cousins, who threw a terrible 4th quarter INT in the end zone (had no business making that pass). There were four Vikings' turnovers overall last week, not to mention a missed field goal. Clean up some of those mistakes, which shouldn't be hard to do against the Raiders, and you'll have a more productive offense this week. 

Again, the common theme in this three-pack is going Over with two teams that have gone Under in both games. We've got a low total in all three of the games. The Raiders' defense gave up 443 yards passing last week. That was against Mahomes, but Cousins is certainly capable of having a productive day himself. The Vikings' offense scored 28 points here at home in the opener. The way the defense gave up touchdowns on three straight drives to open LW's game in Green Bay was concerning though. The Raiders' offense almost always gets off to a good start and that should be enough to help this one go Over. 8* Over Raiders/Vikings

8* Over Jets/Patriots (1:00 ET): So the Antonio Brown era in New England didn't last long as the troubled receiver was cut after just two weeks and one game. Call me crazy, but the Patriots probably won't miss him. Through two games, they haven't allowed a touchdown and have outscored their first two opponents 76-3. A matchup here w/ the Jets, who are on a short week and down to a second-year, third-string QB, all but guarantees they'll be 3-0 after this week. But with a historically large pointspread, it's not like laying the number is an option here. Instead, we'll go Over the total. 

With Sam Darnold (mono) and Trevor Simien (torn ankle ligaments) both out, Luke Falk is now the man in charge of the Jets' offense now. This is an ominous sign seeing as Falk was on the practice squad last week. He'll be looking to replicate what fellow Washington State alum Gardner Minshew has done w/ Jacksonville. Facing this Patriots' defense, it's tough to like Falk's chances, but stranger things have happened. Unlike when he was "thrown to the wolves" against the Browns Monday night, Falk will at least have had reps w/ the first team offense in practice. Falk does rank 8th all-time in passing yards in NCAA history. 

The Patriots' 43-0 annihilation of Miami last week included two defensive touchdowns and one from Brown, who is now gone. But they'll still find other ways to score this week. Remember they gained 465 total yds in the opening week win over the Steelers. The historically bad Dolphins could hardly muster anything against the Patriots defense last week, but the Pats are 5-1 Over after allowing less than 250 total yards their previous game. The Under is 6-0 the L6 meetings in this AFC East rivalry, but this number has come down too far for that trend to continue. 8* Over Jets/Patriots

10* Under Lions/Eagles (1:00 ET): Things have grown so dire on the injury front for the Eagles that HC Doug Pederson had no choice but to cancel practice Wednesday and do a walkthrough instead. We know that the offense will be w/o WR DeSean Jackson Sunday, a big loss. Fellow starting wideout Alshon Jeffrey and TE Dallas Goedert are both dealing w/ calf strains and may miss this game as well. That leaves the likes of Nelson Agholor (who has never lived up to expectations), JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Mack Hollins as the potential top options for Carson Wentz. That's hardly attractive. We still like the Eagles this year, but they're going to struggle to score points right now. 

The Eagles did put 20 points on the board last week in Atlanta, but gained fewer than 300 total yards for the game and just 4.0 yds per play. Here they run into a Detroit defense that's playing well for 2nd year HC Matt Patricia. Last week, the Lions held the Chargers to 10 points, though it helped that LA missed a couple of field goals. But they were also better than the box score showed in Week 1 vs. Arizona. That's a game where they gassed late and allowed 21 pts in the 4Q/OT and wound up w/ a tie. But they allowed just 4.7 YPP in that game. This will be the second week in a row they get to face a banged up offense. 

Remember that the Eagles got off to a slow start in Week 1 vs. Washington. Eventually, the offense got on track, but that's when they were healthier and facing an atrocious Redskins' defense (wound up winning 32-27). Since the start of last year, Philly has scored a league-low 41 pts in the first quarter. Eight of the Lions' last nine games have stayed Under the total, the exception being the Week 1 tie w/ Arizona. The last seven times they've played the Eagles, the game has gone Over. So something has to give here. With the Eagles' injury issues, we should expect a lower-scoring than usual effort from them. The Lions have managed just 40 points this season despite playing an extra 10 mins of football. 10* Under Lions/Eagles

8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): So, for the Jets, this is certainly not how you'd draw up the 2019 season. They are 0-2, having blown a 16-pt lead at home vs. Buffalo in Week 1 and are now down to their THIRD string QB after a 23-3 loss to Cleveland Monday night. Now, on a short week, they face the Patriots. The game is in New England where they have not won since 2010's shocking playoff upset, "led" by Mark Sanchez. Luke Falk is now the team's QB as the Jets look for their first regular season win here at Gilette Stadium since 2008! But they don't call the pointspread "the great equalizer" for nothing. It's a historic spread Sunday w/ the Jets getting three touchdowns. Regardless of what teams are involved, this is an automatic take the points situation. 

NFL underdogs of 21+ points have covered at a 67% rate all-time, going 22-11-2 ATS. Bill Belichick coached Patriots teams have NEVER covered as a favorite of 20 or more points, going 0-4 ATS. They haven't been in this situation since 2011 against the Colts when they won by just a touchdown. While the New England defense has yet to allow a TD this year, resulting in the team outscoring its first two opponents 76-3, they won't be so fortunate to face a team like the Dolphins every week. Note Miami is also getting more than 20 pts this week (at Dallas), making this a VERY unusual week of NFL betting.

The reason we'll be taking the Jets and not Miami this week is pretty simple. The Jets are a much better team. Falk probably isn't much of a downgrade from Trevor Siemian and now he'll at least have had practice reps w/ the first team offense. For what it's worth, Falk is 8th on the NCAAF all-time passing yardage list. Covering a spread like this is hard to do in the NFL and it should be noted that the Patriots got TWO defensive touchdowns last week vs. the Dolphins and another from WR Antonio Brown, who is no longer w/ the team. The Jets defense has allowed just 40 points in two games. 8* NY Jets

8* UTEP (8:00 ET): We won't try and sell you on UTEP being a good team because they are not. But the Miners are off a bye week and getting a good number of points, at home, against an overrated Nevada squad. The Wolf Pack are only averaging 19.7 PPG through three games, so the thought of them laying 2 TD's on the road seems far fetched to us. It is an opening night upset of Purdue, 34-31 as 11-pt home dogs, that has the contingent from Reno overvalued here. The reason they won that game was they were +5 in turnovers, which offset them being outgained by 115 yds in that contest. Since then, the Wolf Pack were "put in their place" with a 77-6 loss to Oregon, then could only beat FCS Weber State by a score of 19-13 last week. Take the points here. 

Nevada trailed Purdue 24-7 at the half and were down 31-14 halfway through the third quarter. The fact they came back and won that game was a minor miracle. They scored 10 pts in the final minute, including a 56-yard FG w/ no time remaining by a walk-on kicker. Had that comeback not taken place, we'd be looking at a 1-2 team whose only win would be by six points over a FCS opponent. If that were the case, this line probably looks a lot different. The Wolfpack have been a road favorite just twice under HC Jay Norvell (third year here in Reno), both times LY, and they are 0-2 ATS including an outright loss to a terrible San Jose State team. So there is real hope for UTEP here. 

Now here's the ugly part. UTEP has lost 24 of its last 26 games. The two wins were this year's season opener (vs. FCS Houston Baptist - by two points) and last year against Rice (who we currently rate as the worst team in the FBS). But the good news is we don't need the Miners to win, only cover. Being off a bye is good. Coming into the year, we did think this would be an improved team as they were better last year than their 1-11 SU record showed. This is a spread that belongs in the single digits as Nevada has lost 10 of its last 13 road games.  8* UTEP

10* Under Kentucky/Mississippi St (4:00 ET): So this matchup is quite the reverse of Thursday night's Over play on Houston-Tulane. The Thursday night game saw the teams come in w/ a combined 6-0 Under mark while this Saturday afternoon battle in the SEC sees two teams that are 6-0. Something else Kentucky and Miss State have in common here is both are coming in off narrow losses at home last week. Kentucky lost to Florida 29-21 while Mississippi State was upset here in Starkville by a Kansas State team that it looks like we all underestimated. But what we're interested in here is the total as one of the starting QB's may be OUT here (Miss St) and last year's game was really low scoring. That's what we are anticipating again here. Take the Under. 

You had to figure MSU's defense would take a step back this year after giving up just 13.2 PPG a season ago. That was #2 in the country, behind only Alabama, but three #1 NFL Draft choices left that group. Still, it's been disconcerting to see the Bulldogs give up so many points early on, including 28 to Louisiana and 31 LW to Kansas State. Note, however, that they allowed less than 300 total yards in last week's loss. The difference in the game ended up being a 100-yard kick return for TD by Kansas State, which came just after Miss St had taken a seven-point lead. The Bulldogs defense than uncharacteristically wilted late, giving up a six-play, 53-yard drive to lose the game. Before that, they had been just fine. 

But Miss St potentially has bigger problems heading into this game as QB Tommy Stevens may not play. A shoulder injury has limited him each of the L2 games and last week he had to be taken out after throwing two picks and completing only 7 of 15 passes for 100 yards. Regardless of whether or not Stevens does play here, this Under is play is on as he clearly won't be at 100 percent. Last year, the Bulldogs' offense managed only 7 points as they were upset on the road by Kentucky. But we still trust that defense to play better than it has. Kentucky was probably the least dominant 10-win team in the country a year ago, so they figure to take a step back in 2019. They lost their top offensive player from LY (RB Benny Snell) and have only four starters back from a defense that gave up just 16.8 PPG. Still, they did hold Florida to just 10 points through three quarters last week (fell apart in 4Q) after allowing only 17 pts the previous game. 10* Under Kentucky/Mississippi State

10* Tulsa (3:30 ET): Wyoming is 3-0 (straight up), but it would be a grave mistake to think those in Laramie should make holiday plans revolving around a New Year's Six Bowl game. Of all the teams still unbeaten across the country, the Cowboys are likely the weakest. That's largely confirmed by the fact they are getting points from 1-2 Tulsa this week. Now, the Golden Hurricane fought valiantly against Oklahoma State last week. They were up 21-20 at the half and would have covered (+14) had it not been for a late TD. We were on them in that spot, a tough loss for sure, but they get it back here against a different (and much weaker) group of Cowboys. Lay the points. 

Just to reiterate what's already been said about Wyoming's "phony" record, they are 3-0 but have been outgained in all three games. They've had close calls each of the last two weeks against Texas State and Idaho, neither of whom are any good. The Texas State game is one of just two times the Cowboys have won a non-conference roadie under HC Craig Bohl in 10 tries. They did so despite being -151 in total yards and -11 in first downs (lucky!). Interestingly enough, the Pokes were favored in that game (-7.5) and their only other non-conf road win under Bohl (LY vs. New Mexico State). Last week's home victory over FCS Idaho was even tighter (21-16) as Wyoming again overcame an early double-digit deficit and being outgained for the game. 

Tulsa has already played Michigan State and Oklahoma State, so they aren't likely to be intimidated by an opponent w/ an unbeaten record. Wyoming has actually won seven straight dating back to LY, but it's time for that to end this week. A big problem the Cowboys have is a passing attack which has averaged just 82 yards passing per game w/ a 39.1 completion percentage! Tulsa's rushing numbers are skewed due to how many sacks they gave up in the Michigan State game. The offense has moved the ball pretty well since that time and hasn't turned it over. The Golden Hurricane also have the better defense in this matchup (36th in efficiency). Add it up and you've got what should be an easy win for the home team. 10* Tulsa

10* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): You can make it four straight losses for the Cubs, all here at Wrigley, a streak that couldn't come at a worse time. The last three have all been by one run, yesterday's being perhaps the most frustrating as it was 2-1 despite outhitting the Cardinals 9-4. If not for Yadier Molina (3-4, 2 RBI's), the Cards would have just one hit for the game. The Cubs now not only trail St. Louis by 5.5 games in the NL Central, but also Milwaukee by two games for the Wild Card. Not only do the Cubs have the best run differential of all three teams, the Brewers have negative scoring differential. If they were to make the playoffs - and not the Cubs - it would be quite the disappointment in the Windy City. It's time for them to bounce back Saturday afternoon. 

Dakota Hudson goes today for the Cardinals. His L7 starts have been remarkable w/ a 1.59 ERA and 0.904 WHIP. The team has gone 6-1 in that stretch. We made the mistake of fading Hudson as a home dog Monday vs. Washington. He threw seven innings and allowed only two runs in that start, a 4-2 Cards' victory. However, we've got our reasons for fading him again here. A big one is his 1.582 WHIP on the road. Five of those last seven starts have come at home. The two that didn't were against Colorado and Kansas City, two very bad teams. Somehow Hudson has not yet faced the Cubs this year. Something interesting about him is while he has a 14-2 TSR as a favorite, he has a 7-7 TSR as an underdog (as he is here). 

It's "put up or shut up" time for the Cubs. They lost Thursday's game in extra innings (after rallying from 3 runs down in the 9th) and then yesterday was won they easily could have won too. They'll be handing the ball to Jose Quintana for this all-important game. Quintana has NOT pitched well of late, turning in an 11.33 ERA and 2.227 WHIP his L3 starts. He's been tagged for 4+ runs in four of his last five starts. Curiously though, he still has a better WHIP on the year compared to Hudson. Quintana has faced the Cardinals two times in 2019, winning the one at home (13-5) as he held them to two runs in six innings. This current Cubs' losing streak matches their 2nd longest of the season w/ the only longer one (six games) coming very early in the year. Their 51 home wins are 4th most in all of MLB. 10* Chi Cubs 

8* Louisiana (2:00 ET): Sometimes if it's "too good to be true," it often is. Case in point, Ohio U returns to Athens this weekend, reeling, as they are off B2B road losses to Pitt and Marshall. They are laying just a short number at home and one might think this is a good landing spot for Frank Solich's Bobcats to bounce back. But we feel Louisiana is the better team in this matchup as the Ragin Cajuns come in feeling pretty good about themselves following B2B wins where they put up 593 and 748 (!) total yards of offense. Ohio's offense isn't performing up to expectations thus far and this very well could turn into a third consecutive loss for them. Take the points! 

Ohio was beaten far worse than 20-10 final score showed against Pitt. They barely gained 200 yards in the 20-10 loss and then followed that up w/ a poor defensive effort LW against Marshall where they gave up over 500 total yards. The offense was better there, but this still has to be considered a disappointing start considering QB Nathan Rourke is back. But there were just three other starters back from LY's record-setting offense in Athens. Granted, the Bobcats were underdogs in both losses, but we have our concerns w/ them being favored here as the defense has struggled to stop opponents through the air and on the ground. The Louisiana offense ranks 4th nationally in first downs. 

Ohio is also on a three-game losing streak to Sun Belt teams, including two bowl losses. Louisiana played for the SBC Championship last year and should exploit the Bobcats' suspect rush defense. The Ragin Cajuns have gone over 400+ yards rushing each of the last two weeks, admittedly against weaker competition, but Ohio also just allowed 300+ yds on the ground to Marshall last week. Louisiana returned its top three rushers from LY, so it's no surprise they have found so much success on the ground this year. This team hung tough against Mississippi State in the season opener, losing by only 10 points despite five turnovers and even ran for 164 yds against what was one of the top defenses in the country last year. 8* Louisiana

8* UL Monroe (12:00 ET): Both teams are coming off one-point losses here. However, the situation is not entirely identical. UL Monroe has had a week off to recover from its 45-44 overtime loss at Florida State. Iowa State, who had its bye two weeks ago, now needs to find a way to quickly recover from losing to Iowa last Saturday. That's going to be tough to do, given the nature of the defeat and the fact it was the fifth straight time they lost to their in-state rival. Laying a big number in this spot makes the Cyclones an attractive fade too as UL Monroe has already proven it can hang w/ a P5 opponent. Take the points. 

Iowa State has to be demoralized about losing to Iowa. Not just because they had an extra week to prepare, but also the manner in which they lost. They outgained the Hawkeyes by 105 yards, but two turnovers proved costly, especially the second one which was a muffed punt in the final two minutes. That came after the offense had turned the ball over on downs in Iowa territory its previous drive. Scoring only 17 points on a Hawkeyes' defense that was very beat up in the secondary has to be very disappointing as well. Keep in mind the Cyclones needed OT to get by Northern Iowa, a FCS team, in their opening game. I feel that this is an overrated team, ripe for the picking right now. They've failed to cover five of the last six times they were favored here in Ames, all five ATS losses coming as DD favorites. 

UL Monroe has to like the spot that they are in as they had no problems covering a similar spread against Florida State. Yes, the Seminoles have their issues right now, but the Warhawks led them in the 4th quarter. They lost b/c of a missed extra point in OT. Kicking issue aside, this is one of the most experienced teams in the entire country and they've previously beaten six P5 opponents. Offensively, they are led by QB Evans and RB Johnson, the latter of which went for 126 yards on 26 carries vs. FSU. The UL Monroe rush defense is an area of concern, but fortunately for them ISU has struggled to run the ball effectively so far (just 91 yds vs. Iowa) as they badly miss David Montgomery, who is now in the NFL. 8* UL Monroe 

8* Western Michigan (12:00 ET): Really tough spot for Syracuse here as they are off a deflating 41-6 loss to Clemson last week where they were thoroughly outclassed just as they were by Maryland the week prior in a 63-20 loss. The defense was torched for a combined 1,262 yards in the two losses, which is certainly NOT what you want to see out of a favorite in any situation. While favored at the Carrier Dome this week, the Orange will be up against yet another opponent that is superior on the offensive side of the ball and you should expect WMU QB Jon Wassink to have a big day here. Syracuse is nothing close to the team they fielded last year as losing QB Dungy (school's all-time passing leader) is something they are still trying to overcome. Take the points. 

Dungy's replacement is Tommy DeVito, who has not played well to this point. DeVito is bottom 20 nationally in QBR and has more interceptions (4) than TD passes (3). Of course, DeVito's play is largely irrelevant when the Orange defense has played so poorly. They allowed a frightening 8.6 yards per play LW vs. Clemson. Obviously, the Tigers are as good as it gets, but Western Michigan is going to be able to move the ball here as well. Last year, the Broncos hung 42 points (in a losing effort) on the 'Cuse defense in the season opener at Kalamazoo. I'm sure they haven't forgotten and the fact this is a revenge game makes the spot even sweeter for the underdog. 

The Broncos put 57 points and nearly 700 total yards on the board last week vs. Georgia State, so that's even more evidence that they should score plenty here. The week prior saw them stymied at Michigan State, but that's as good a defense as they'll see all year. Wassink is in his third year as the starter here and is 13-1 SU vs. non-P5 teams. That record obviously doesn't apply here vs. an ACC opponent, but it's still worth mentioning. Wassink is also Top 10 in the country in QBR right now. With Syracuse now 1-6 ATS following a SU loss, the underdog is the play here (plus the points) as WMU can absolutely take this game outright. 8* Western Michigan

10* USC (9:00 ET): These Pac 12 South rivals already have a common opponent and that's BYU. Each team had to go to Provo and both were listed as a 5-point favorite. Utah won their game, 30-12, while USC lost outright 30-27. So the Utes should be the obvious call here, right? (Especially seeing as we had them in the win over BYU). "Not so fast, my friend!" An interesting tidbit from those games is that the two teams averaged a near identical number of yards per play (5.75 vs. 5.72). Southern Cal may have lost, but did so in overtime. They also led in the 4th quarter, but ultimately could not overcome a -3 turnover differential. (Note: Utah was +3 in TO's in its game vs. BYU). With the home team having covered seven of eight matchups since Utah became a Pac 12 member, we'll take the points w/ the Trojans.

With Southern Cal having lost QB J.T. Daniels to a season-ending ACL injury (in the 1st game), one would naturally think Utah has the edge offensively coming into this one. I'm not so sure that's the case. Even with QB Huntley and RB Moss returning, the Utes aren't likely to put up a ton of points on a consistent basis as they play at a very slow pace. USC has found a replacement for Daniels in freshman Kedon Slovis, who completed 28 of 33 pass attempts for 377 yards in the 45-20 win over Stanford, which was the last time the Trojans played at the Coliseum. Slovis wasn't quite as effective last week in his first career road start, but still completed 24 of 34 passes for 281 yards. Don't think Utah will simply be able to "outscore" USC in this one. 

I mentioned earlier that the home team is on a 7-1 ATS run in this rivalry. That also includes six straight wins by an average of 9 PPG. Our numbers actually indicate USC should be slightly favored here, even though Utah has covered the last three matchups, including a one-point loss here in LA two years ago. But the Utes have not won straight up at the Coliseum since 1916! Trojans HC Clay Helton has not been good as underdog in the past and his seat will only get warmer were his team to lose again this week. He's got road games at Washington and Notre Dame on deck, so expect an "all hands on deck" approach to this Friday night home game. 10* USC

6* Cleveland (7:05 ET): For the Indians, the Tigers were the "gift that keeps on giving." Last night's 7-0 win made it yet another sweep over the team from Detroit as the Indians finished the year an incredible 18-1 against their division rival. If the Tribe ends up making it to the postseason, they may want to send a thank you card to the Tigers. Last night's win enabled Cleveland to pull into a tie w/ idle Tampa Bay (both 90-63) for the second Wild Card spot in the American League (two games back of Oakland). For the final home series of the year, they welcome in a National League team - Philadelphia - whom they should defeat every bit as easily as the odds indicate they should. 

The Phillies are obviously a big step up from playing the Tigers, but they are still a below average ballclub by the numbers. I say that because they've been outscored on the year. A 5-4 loss to the Braves yesterday afternoon really put a dent in Philly's playoff hopes as they are now four back of the Wild Card needing to jump three teams. Not that I view this is as a playoff team anyway. Injuries have also begun to take their toll on their everyday lineup, the latest being Jean Segura (one of their more consistent hitters), who left yday's game w/ a cramp. 

Something to keep in mind is that Cleveland has won 8 of the past 9 days its played. It's only losses during that stretch came in a doubleheader where they got swept by Minnesota. They send Shane Bieber out for this all-important series opener and you have to like that considering Bieber is second in all of MLB this year (deGrom) w/ 14 starts of 7+ innings & allowing 2 runs or fewer. The Indians are 20-11 in all Bieber starts this year. Drew Smyly of the Phillies, like Bieber, has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts. But the difference is Smyly still has a 5.62 ERA and 1.528 WHIP on the year. Things get a lot tougher here facing an American League lineup (w/ a DH). 6* Cleveland

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): It remains unconscionable to us that the Mets are 26-36 in all starts made by Jacob deGrom since the start of last season. In spite of his own team's ineptitude, deGrom captured the Cy Young last year and while he won't be able to match those numbers from 2018, this season has seen him continue to pitch very well. He has a 2.61 ERA and 1.005 WHIP in 30 starts and lately he's been too good for even the Mets to deny. His L2 times out, deGrom has given up a total of just one run while working 14 innings. He's given up just six hits and has a 19-1 KW ratio. Starting on the road this evening, he's available at a much cheaper price than usual and we'll back him against the light-hitting Reds. 

Though on the outskirts of contention, the Mets have managed to stay relevant in the NL Wild Card race. They're 3.5 games back, thanks to a 9th inning rally Wednesday in Colorado. They had yesterday off to get to Cincinnati, a good thing seeing as the Mets' record following a day off is 12-7. (Reds are 1-11 L12 in that situation). The playoff race is something that the Reds fell out of long ago as they just haven't been able to get over the proverbial hump. Like the Mets, they come into this series on a two-game win streak, but they're only 72-81 and have managed just a trio of three-game win streaks since the Break (none more than three). 

The Reds do have good pitching and if he were facing almost any other pitcher, Luis Castillo would be a bargain at this price at Great American Ballpark. But deGrom is simply better than Castillo and a major problem Cincy faces in this this matchup is an inability to score consistently as they are 4th from the bottom in runs among all NL teams. Not only does deGrom sport a 2.09 ERA since May 22nd (21 starts), he has a 1.74 ERA in five career outings against the Reds. He shut them out for seven innings in the only prior series between the teams, which was back in early May, allowing only three hits. The Mets lost that game 1-0, but ironically the Reds lost a quality start by Castillo in that same series! Castillo is working on extended rest here (six days), but the problem is he has a 2-6 TSR in that situation. 8* NY Mets

10* Jacksonville (8:20 ET): So much for home field advantage in these Thursday night NFL games. The road team has pulled an upset each of the first two weeks w/ Green Bay beating Chicago and Tampa Bay beating Carolina. But if an upset were to happen for a third straight time to open the season, this time it would be by the home team. Jacksonville comes in as a short home dog as they are 0-2 on the season following losses to Kansas City and Houston, both of whom were division winners last year. Something else to consider is that the Jags have been swept each of the last two years by the Titans. They will come into this game highly motivated and are our choice. Take the points. 

One of the big mistakes we made last week was overrating Tennessee's Week 1 performance in Cleveland. Sure, the Titans won that game 43-13. But they were only up two points late in the 3Q before the Browns imploded. Tennessee was actually outgained in that contest (346-339), but was fortunate to be +3 in turnovers. They are now +5 in turnovers on the season, but lost LW to the Colts 19-17. Truth be told, we were NOT high on Tennessee this year, but chose to take them last week as it seemed all the stars had aligned w/ the other three AFC South teams all losing in Week 1 and two of them seemingly having serious issues at the QB position. That line of thinking was obviously a mistake. 

Losing Nick Foles to a broken clavicle in Week 1 seemed like a death blow to the Jaguars' 2019 season. But backup Gardner Minshew II seems like he'll be a capable replacement. So far, Minshew has completed almost 70% of his pass attempts and he very nearly pulled off a comeback in Houston last week. (The Jags lost that game 13-12 as HC Doug Marrone elected to go for two and the win instead of kicking the extra point and forcing OT.) Moving forward, Tennessee probably isn't going to be as fortunate w/ turnovers as they've been the first two games. Even though he has asked to be traded, Jags DB Jalen Ramsey is going to play tonight. Don't be surprised if he has a good game and it's the Jags forcing some TO's against often error-prone Titans QB Marcus Mariota. It's a must-win game for the 0-2 Jags Thursday night. We'll back 'em. 10* Jacksonville

10* Over Houston/Tulane (8:00 ET): Suffice to say, most probably wouldn't have banked on Tulane being favored over Houston in this game, let alone by more than a field goal. But the Green Wave have looked strong in both their wins, the first of which we were on as they clobbered FIU 42-14 as just a three-point home favorite in the opener. The big difference right now between them and Houston is that they've faced just one Power 5 opponent (Auburn) while UH has faced two (Oklahoma, Washington State). That is basically the sole reason Tulane comes into this game at 2-1 while Houston is 1-2. We cashed the Cougars in Week 1 as they covered at Oklahoma. They also covered last week vs. Washington State. Both of these teams can claim to have blown out a FCS opponent. It's really a pretty even matchup as Tulane is certainly improved while Houston is better than its record.

Something else the teams have in common is they've gone Under in every game. Well, that comes w/ a caveat. There was no O/U line posted for Tulane's game last week, a 58-6 win over Missouri State. One would think if there had been, the game would have gone Over with that final score. The Green Wave offense is averaging 436 YPG, led by QB Justin McMillan. Since he took over as the starter halfway through last season, this has been a much better football team. They've gone 7-2 SU with the only losses coming to Auburn (24-6) two weeks ago and to ... Houston (48-17) last year. The Green Wave have scored 28 and 38 points in the first halves of their two home games this year. They have five players w/ at least 96 rush yards so far this season. 

Houston had a poor finish to last season (cost Major Applewhite his job), but remember what we said in the analysis for the Oklahoma game. That poor finish was tied to the loss of QB D'Eriq King (injured) for the last two games. Ironically, the injury he suffered (knee) last year came against this Tulane team. Before getting hurt, King accounted for FIFTY touchdowns (36 passing, 14 rushing), which led all of FBS. The bad news for the Cougars is the defense, which has given up 686 yards to Oklahoma, 343 to Prairie View A&M and 489 to Washington State. Both of these offenses can move the ball and score. The O/U lines for the first three Houston games were all 74+ points. The O/U line for LY's meeting was 68.0. So getting a number like this one seems like a real value play. 10* Over Houston/Tulane

10* Under Royals/Twins (7:40 ET): Given the respective season-long placements in the AL Central standings, it should not surprise you to learn that Minnesota has dominated Kansas City in head to head play this season, winning 9 of the 12 matchups. There is a 37.5 game gap between the two entering this series, which will be the final one of the regular season at Target Field. Unfortunately for Twins' fans, it is not very likely that they'll be able to wrap up the division this weekend, even with a sweep (which is not out of the realm of possibility). The individual game prices on the Twins will also be too high for our taste, but there are a number of key factors that have us taking the Under in Thursday's opener. 

Minnesota has already set a new single season record for most home runs hit in a season and is the 1st team ever to have FIVE 30+ HR hitters. But a curious thing about the team is that they score fewer runs per game at home than they do on the road. It's almost a full run per game drop. Last night, they were actually no-hit for 5+ innings in what ended up as a 3-1 loss to the White Sox. They finished the game w/ only three hits. So that's an encouraging sign for Royals' starter Mike Montgomery, who has had his fair share of struggles this season. However, Montgomery does have a 2.77 ERA in three career outings vs. the Twins. He has not faced them in 2019, but did just hold Houston to two runs on five hits in his last outing. Five of his last seven starts have seen Montgomery allow 2 ER or less. 

Kansas City is not a strong offensive team as they rank 28th (out of 30 teams) in runs per game. Last night was another poor effort at the plate as they were shutout and held to four hits in a 1-0 loss at Oakland. It was the 4th time in the L6 games the Royals failed to score more than a single run. Tonight, they face a pitcher who has dominated them throughout his career, that being Kyle Gibson, who is not only 9-5 (3.55 ERA) in 21 career starts vs. KC, but also 2-0 (3.26 ERA) in three starts this season. This will be just the second start for Gibson after a bout w/ ulcerative colitis, which affected his sleep and caused him to lose 10 lbs. He's seen each of his last NINE starts go Over the total, but w/ his past success against the Royals, we'll call for this to be his best outing in awhile. 10* Under Royals/Twins

8* Milwaukee (7:40 ET): The Brewers have somehow remained not just relevant in the playoff discussion, but are now tied w/ the Cubs for the final Wild Card spot in the National League.  I say "somehow" because they are in this position in spite of a -24 run differential. It's been a LONG time since they were "in the black" in that regard. Yet they've been able to catch a number of teams "at the right time" recently and it's led to an 11-1 record the L12 games. The latest victim has been a struggling San Diego club that has now dropped six straight after losing here at Miller Park both Monday and Tuesday. 

This was actually a revenge series for the Brew Crew, who got swept out in Petco Park back in June. But things are a lot different now w/ them in the thick of a playoff chase while San Diego is already thinking about 2020. The Padres have managed just two runs on six hits so far in this series and have been held to three runs or less in 9 of their past 14 games. This is good news for Milwaukee starter Adrian Houser, who is looking to bounce back from a rough showing last week in St. Louis. But don't forget Houser had a stretch from August 10th to September 2nd where he allowed just 1 ER in five consecutive starts. He also threw 3 1/3 scoreless innings of relief against the Padres in that aforementioned series back in June. 

The Padres will go with Dinelson Lamet, who continues to make his way back from Tommy John surgery. It hasn't been a good run of results recently for Lamet, who has an 0-4 TSR his L4 starts. Going back to before his surgery, the Padres are just 7-19 the L26 times he's started. Not only has San Diego lost six in a row overall, they've also lost eight straight road games. These are two teams clearly trending in opposite directions down the home stretch and we'll obviously stay w/ the hot one. 8* Milwaukee 

10* Atlanta (7:20 ET): The Braves lost to the Phillies last night, 5-4, as Philadelphia scored all five of its runs in one inning. The loss leaves Atlanta's magic number at 3 to win the NL East while the Phils remain a fringe Wild Card contender, still four games back of the Brewers & Cubs. While Atlanta may not be quite as dominant as their 93-59 record indicates, we've never bought into the Phillies as legit playoff contenders as they have a negative scoring differential on the year, not to mention they were kind of an overrated group last year as well. It could be argued that signing Bryce Harper was a waste of funds given that there hasn't been any kind of noticeable improvement year over year. Look for the Braves to bounce back at home tonight. (This game is on ESPN btw). 

Atlanta will turn to Julio Teheran in this spot, a proven commodity who has allowed 3 ER or less in 10 of his last 12 starts. Now Teheran did see a stretch of four consecutive quality outings end w/ a rough day in Philadelphia last week where he gave up three home runs - and five runs total - in a losing effort. However, it's a big difference getting to face the Phillies here at home where he has a 10-5 TSR and 2.89 ERA this season. Overall, Atlanta is 47-29 at SunTrust Park in 2019, including a 27-10 record as a ML favorite in the -125 to -175 range. 

While Teheran has struggled in his two starts against the Phillies this year (both on the road), the same could be said for Zach Eflin in his three starts vs. the Braves. Eflin took the loss his last time out by allowing three unearned runs in a 3-1 final. His previous two starts vs. the Braves went even worse w/ him allowing 17 runs in just 5 2/3 innings. Only one of those three previous starts came here in Atlanta. The Phillies aren't a great road team, confirmed by a 6-15 record this year as a dog of +125 to +175. They are 29-55 in that role the L3 seasons. 10* Atlanta 

8* Over Nationals/Cardinals (1:15 ET): In a series rife w/ playoff implications, these teams have split the first two games w/ St. Louis winning Monday (4-2) and Washington winning last night, 6-2. Both are trying to hold off the Cubs and Brewers right now. In the Cardinals case, for the division lead and for Washington's, it's the Wild Card. St. Louis has a two game edge over both the Cubs and Brewers in the NL Central while Washington is up 1.5 games on both as they continue to lead the Wild Card. Unless both are passed by BOTH the Cubs and Brewers, then both will still be participants in the postseason. We've got what looks to be an outstanding pitching matchup for the series finale this afternoon (Scherzer vs. Wainwright), but I sense that this game will go Over. 

Wainwright has come on strong recently for the Redbirds, going 5-1 w/ a 2.61 ERA and 1.282 WHIP his L7 starts. He's been especially dominant in the last three, going 3-0 w/ a 0.45 ERA and 0.80 WHIP as he's allowed just one run in 20 IP. Wainwright is definitely better at home (as is the case w/ most of the Cardinals' starters) and has a respectable 9-4 career record (3.34 ERA) vs. Washington. So why go Over here? Well, I think Wainwright is due for a bad outing. His recent stretch is as good as he's pitched all season. For the year, he has a 3.94 ERA and 1.378 WHIP, fairly mediocre numbers. Also, the Over is 14-5-2 in Wainwright's L21 starts vs. the NL East, including 3-1-1 vs. the Nats. The Cardinals are 7-3-1 Over off their L11 losses. 

With Scherzer also on the mound, we're getting a low total. Since returning from the DL, Scherzer hasn't been exactly dominant, posting a 3.91 ERA in five starts. He made it through only five innings his last time out (99 pitches) and lost a decision for the 1st time since May 17th. It was also the first time he didn't allow a HR since returning. He gave up three runs in another loss to St. Louis back in May and has a losing career record against his hometown team. Scherzer has yet to go more than six innings since returning to the rotation. The Over is 5-1-1 his L7 road starts vs. a team w/ a winning record. It won't take much for this one to go Over. 8* Over Nationals/Cardinals

8* Arizona (9:40 ET): The D'backs came into this series having lost seven of nine, but a matchup w/ the Marlins (at home) is tailor-made for a turnaround. Sure enough, they took last night's series opener by a score of 7-5. It may not have been easy as the home team needed to score four times in the seventh after giving up five in the top half of that inning. But they got the job done and things should go a lot more smoothly tonight. I say that not only because Miami is an awful team, but also due to the fact they're facing a starter who really struggles on the road. With a +60 run differential on the year, Arizona is better than you think and should win here rather easily.

By just about every measure, Miami is the worst team in the National League. Of course, that was to be expected. But still, their offense is beyond putrid as all but three teams (Detroit, KC, White Sox) have scored at least 100 more runs than they have over the course of the year. Caleb Smith gets the start for the Fish Tuesday. While he's looked good at home, we alluded to his struggles on the road earlier. Smith is 2-6 in his 12 road starts and the team has lost his last five starts overall, the last two even coming at home. His last two on the road saw him allow a total of 12 runs. There is also the issue that Smith has reached a career-high in innings pitched for a season.

While there's really no discernible reason to like the Marlins in this spot, there's plenty to back the D'backs. They send rookie Alex Young to the mound this evening in search of his eighth win in 14 tries. On September 7th, Young set a new franchise rookie record w/ 12 K's vs. the Reds. The follow-up to that (vs. the Mets last Thursday) was not good, but was also on the road. Back when Arizona visited Miami in late July, they won only one of four games. But that one win came w/ Young on the bump. The D'backs do still have an outside shot at a playoff berth and are simply a much better team than the Marlins. 8* Arizona

6* Boston (7:10 ET): After sweeping the Phillies on the road, the Red Sox now get to host an Interleague series. While it's been a disappointing campaign in Beantown, one that recently saw the team fire its GM less than one year after winning the World Series, this is still - by most objective measures - a really solid ballclub. They're on a pace to win about 87 games and have outscored their opponents by 83 runs. Even though their playoff hopes are all but dead, they've won three straight after taking the two games in Philly over the weekend. Perhaps most head-scratching of all is that the Red Sox have a losing record at Fenway Park this year (36-39) despite actually outscoring opponents by a half-run per game here. Look for them to snap a three-game home losing streak tonight. 

The Red Sox may be disappointing, but they are still better than the overrated Giants. Sure, it may seem odd to point to a team that's six games below .500 and call them "overrated." But the reality of the matter is that the Giants have been "saved" by an extremely fortunate 35-15 record in one-run games this year. They've actually been outscored by 78 runs, meaning they've played to the level of a team that "should" be 18 games below .500! As I've said before when fading San Francisco, it's one of the largest gaps between actual and expected wins in all of baseball. 

I'll concede that the Giants are a better offensive team on the road and do benefit from having a DH in this series. But they still should be unable to keep pace w/ a Red Sox lineup that averages 5.6 rpg here at home. Only Colorado (obviously) and Houston (best team in baseball) score at a higher rate at home. This means trouble for Giants' starter Logan Webb, who already has an 8.25 ERA and 1.945 WHIP on the road. His last road start saw him surrender eight runs in just 2 2/3 innings and that was vs. a NL team. Boston will counter w/ Nathan Eovaldi, who has yet to win a single decision in nine tries. We'll look past that - and his poor history vs. the Giants - as the Red Sox are due to win one at home (went 2-4 on most recent homestand vs. two first place teams - Yankees & Twins) and probably finish the season strong. 6* Boston

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Pirates are coming off a series w/ the Cubs that was absolutely horrific for them. Not that this season has been very good in the Steel City, but giving up 47 runs in three games to the Cubbies (not a misprint) could very well have been the nadir. It's also been a rough stretch for tonight's starter Mitch Keller, who has a 10.97 ERA and 1.968 WHIP his L3 starts. But he and the Bucs should benefit tonight from facing a Mariners team that is playing w/o a DH (NL rules) and has a struggling starter of its own on the hill. We offer a rare endorsement of the Pirates tonight.

Tonight will mark the 32nd start of the season for the Mariners' Marco Gonzales. There are only three other pitchers - in all of baseball - entering today that have made at least 32 starts. He and Yusei Kikuchi are the only two on the M's staff w/ more than 13 starts. While he may have proven himself to be durable, Gonzales' results have been mediocre at best and not good at all when you look at the last two road starts. He gave up 11 runs in 11 IP at Houston and Texas and walked more batters (7) than he struck out (2). Something else to consider here is the unfamiliar environment for Seattle. They haven't visited PNC Park since 2016. This is a team that is just 27-46 on the road this season.

Keller is considered a top prospect for Pittsburgh, so something should be expected from him. Here at home is where he would be expected to turn things around. In three starts so far at PNC Park, his numbers have been good (2.13 ERA, 1.026 WHIP). Again, he stands to benefit from facing a Mariners lineup that is w/o a DH. While Pirates' pitching just got crushed by the Cubs, Seattle has been no better in that department, giving up four 10+ run games in its L10. The Pirates are also 12-5 vs. the American League this season and 37-20 L57 Interleague Games. That's tied for the third most IL wins among NL teams this year. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Under Royals/A's (10:07 ET): You have to like Oakland's chances of getting one of the two Wild Card spots in the American League. They are projected to have the easiest remaining schedule, facing nothing but sub-.500 foes, starting with this series against the 55-95 Royals. The A's have won six straight - all on the road - including three against Houston. They now have a top five run differential (+152) in all of baseball after outscoring their opponents by 31 runs during the current win streak. It won't take many runs to beat Kansas City and w/ the bottom of the ninth unlikely to be played tonight, we're going Under. 

Tanner Roark is the latest find for this A's organization, who continues to find players off the scrap heap and have them end up contributing in a major way. Roark has been excellent here in his new home, going 3-0 w/ a 1.88 ERA in four starts here in Oakland. His last time out, he did serve up three home runs to the Astros, but it hardly mattered as the A's won that game 21-7. It figures to be a far lower-scoring game tonight as the Royals are certainly nothing close to the Astros. Speaking of the Astros, Kansas City was just swept by them over the weekend and scored all of five runs in the three-game series. 

These teams did just meet late last month in Kansas City w/ the A's taking three of four games. Three of the four also went Over as Oakland had big days at the plate in both the series opener and finale. The latter was against Glenn Sparkman, who will start the opener of this series. Sparkman hasn't had a very good year, but should actually benefit from facing the A's in Oakland. Curiously, the A's score a lot more on the road than they do at home. Their scoring average dips nearly a full run per game! The Under is 15-7-1 in KC's last 23 games here in Oakland. 10* Under Royals/A's

10* NY Jets (8:20 ET): The Jets would certainly appear "up against it" here as starting QB Sam Darnold is out (mono) and will miss a significant period of time. They also have injuries on the defensive side of the ball as well. But in a battle of desperate 0-1 team, taking the points still seems like the logical way to go here, especially the in the wake of the line move when it was announced Darnold would be out. As we saw last week in a 43-13 home loss to the Titans, Cleveland may very well be overhyped. There's a lot of pressure here on a team that hasn't been a road favorite of more than five points since Bill Belichick coached here in 1995. Take the points. 

Speaking of former Browns' coaches, Gregg Williams guided the team to a 5-3 (SU) finish LY, which played a major role in the team getting so much attention in the offseason. Williams is now the DC for the Jets and finds himself in the headlines this week, not just b/c he's facing his former team. New Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr called Williams out for instructing his players to "injure" him in a 2017 preseason game (when OBJ was w/ the Giants and Williams was DC in Cleveland). This is probably much ado about nothing, but Williams being the Jets' DC now does give his team somewhat of an edge as he certainly knows the Browns' tendencies on offense. Even short-handed, look for the Jets defense to play well Monday night. 

As for the offense, the Jets should lean heavily on Le'Veon Bell, who had a nice return LW w/ 92 total yards on 23 touches. Bell did have a MRI Wednesday (shoulder) but checked out. The Jets should have won Week 1 at home vs. Buffalo as they were gifted a +4 TO margin in the 1H, but blew a 16-0 lead. Speaking of turnovers, Cleveland imploded in the 4Q LW vs. Tennessee w/ Baker Mayfield tossing three picks. They went from down 15-13 late in the third to 43-13 by the end of the game. It probably wasn't as bad as the final scored showed, but I come back to the fact that the Browns being favored on the road (let alone by this much) still doesn't "feel right." They've failed to cover four of the previous five times they've been favored (were -5.5 LW), losing three of those games outright. 10* NY Jets

9* Washington (7:45 ET): Neither of these teams had good weekends and in each instance it came at the expense of a division rival. Washington dropped two of three to Atlanta, only winning yesterday (7-0). St. Louis did the same with Milwaukee, here at home, as they blew a 9th inning in spectacular fashion Sunday. They were up 4-3 heading into the final frame, but the Brewers' Ryan Braun made them pay for not having a "true" closer right now (Carlos Martinez injured) by hitting a grand slam off Fernandez after John Gant had walked the bases loaded. That's going to be a tough defeat to get over and facing Stephen Strasburg tonight makes matters even more difficult. Go w/ the Nats. 

I do have to say it's pretty rare to see St. Louis in the position of underdog at Busch Stadium. If the ML holds, tonight will be just the second time this season that the Cardinals are home dogs in the +125 to +175 price range. They're a good home team, but Washington is also a good road team as they have gone 17-9 as road faves of -125 to -175. An interesting tidbit is that only four teams in all of baseball - the Dodgers, Astros, Yankees and Twins - have better scoring margins on the road this season than the Nats. Strasburg has a 41-14 TSR his L55 road starts. 

Strasburg has been very good of late w/ 44 K's and just seven runs allowed his L5 starts. That's in 33 IP and four of those five starts were on the road, the last two each coming against a first place opponent (Atlanta, Minnesota). So Strasburg won't be intimidated here by a Cardinals team he's pitched well against in the past (2.38 ERA in seven career starts). Now it may be tough to overlook what Cards' starter Dakota Hudson has done lately. He hasn't allowed a run in four of his last six starts, but did lose his last time out, 2-1 at Colorado. St. Louis did score six runs yesterday, but had only five hits. Washington is the better team here and let's ride Strasburg. 9* Washington 

10* Over Bears/Broncos (4:25 ET): We're going Over on the lowest total on the board Sunday. Certainly, it would appear as if Chicago has a significant edge heading into this Week 2 matchup as they've had FOUR extra days to prepare. But, like Denver, they're also off a loss and it was an ugly offensive effort to boot. They scored only three points in an Opening Night loss to rival Green Bay, which was at home. The Broncos weren't much flashier offensively in a 24-16 loss to the Raiders Monday night. Despite each team's history of Unders, we're going Over here as trends are (sometimes) made to be broken. 

Chicago has gone Under in its last six games dating back to last year. The jury is still out on QB Mitchell Trubisky, who didn't play well at against the Packers in Week 1. He surprisingly threw 45 times, completing only 26 for 228 yards. There's still reason to believe in HC Matt Nagy though. He was brought in for his offensive mind and I suspect we'll be seeing the Bears run the ball a lot more in Week 2. That said, it's not a bad idea for Trubisky to air it out when necessary against a Denver defense that just allowed an 84.6 completion rate to Derek Carr. Remember that Nagy & the Bears offense will be quite familiar w/ the Denver defensive schemes as their former DC Vic Fangio is now the Broncos head coach. 

Since the start of last season, Denver has gone 14-3 Under in all of its games. The Under is 10-0 the L10 games. However, while it's a long-term trend, the Broncos are 21-8 Over the week after playing Monday night. A big part of the reason they lost to the Raiders in Week 1 was red zone inefficiency. They kicked three field goals, two of them just 26 yarders and the other a curious decision when down 15 in the 4Q. Chicago's defense was as good as any in the league last year, but we see them slipping a bit w/ Fangio now in Denver. Look for this game to sneak Over the total. 10* Over Bears/Broncos

8* Under Chiefs/Raiders (4:05 ET): Well, the Kansas City offense showed no signs of slowing down from a record-setting 2018 campaign. In Week 1, they hung 40 points on a Jaguars defense that remains well-regarded. That was the sixth time since the start of last year that they'd done so. (Interestingly enough, the Chiefs LOST two of those games). There were only four games LY where they failed to score at least 30 and the fewest pts scored in any game was 26, ironically against a bad Arizona team. This week, the Chiefs play in Oakland against a Raiders team that's feeling pretty good about itself after a win Monday night. However, this total is too high (highest on the board) and we're going Under. 

Though they won rather handily, it wasn't all good news in Week 1 for the Chiefs. Speedster Tyreek Hill was lost to an injury. Even though Sammy Watkins had 198 yards receiving and three touchdowns last week, that kind of production simply cannot be counted on every week, especially from a player like Watkins. Slowing down this KC offense is easier said than done, but we do believe ultimately it will prove too difficult for them to match LY's record-setting producton. Over the L21 years, the Chiefs have gone Under 15 times in Week 2. 

Oakland averaged just over 18 PPG each of the last two seasons, but went for 24 last week vs. Denver. A short week is hardly ideal when facing one of the league's better teams and numerous trends point to a lower-scoring effort this week from the Raiders. They are 6-1-1 Under following a SU win and 5-0-1 Under following a game in which they had 250+ yards passing. Derek Carr completed almost 85% of his pass attempts against the Broncos. Even w/ my reservations about the Chiefs defense, Carr is unlikely to replicate that number this week. It's a divisional game, so there's familiarity with the respective schemes of each side (no coaching changes here). Look for the Chiefs' offense to "take a week off" (by their high-scoring standard) and the Raiders not to be that effective moving the ball compared to MNF. 8* Under Chiefs/Raiders

10* Tennessee (1:00 ET): When handicapping the NFL, one must be careful to not overreact to single game or week. Case in point, we were not particularly high on the Titans coming into the year. But it's hard to disregard just how well things "broke" for Tennessee in Week 1. Not only did they go out on the road and destroy a clearly overhyped Cleveland team, 43-13, but look at what's going on in the rest of their division (AFC South). The other three teams lost and two of them (Indy, Jacksonville) now have serious issues at QB. Honestly, right now, it's hard NOT to make Tennessee the favorite to win the AFC South. 

The Colts are still trying to get over the shock of Andrew Luck's sudden retirement last month. Certainly, they can expect little sympathy from any future opponent. But especially Tennessee, who Luck tormented for the better part of this decade. Luck was drafted in 2012. Since that time, the Colts are 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS vs. the Titans. Even that record is misleading though. Both Tennessee SU victories came in 2017, the year Luck missed due to injury. With Luck out of the picture, the Titans know that now is the time to seize the reigns of the division. Here, they are getting the Colts in the second of B2B road games, which is a tricky spot to open the year. Since 2015, teams that open the season w/ B2B road games have gone a money-burning 1-14 ATS, losing by almost 8.5 points per game. 

Meanwhile, this is Tennessee's home opener. They've gone 12-4 SU in Nashville the past two seasons and come in with plenty of confidence after last week's strong effort on the road where they appeared strong on both sides of the ball. Indianapolis fought valiantly against the Chargers in Week 1, but ultimately came up short in OT. Jacoby Brissett has been thrust into the starting QB role and ironically he was the starter for both losses two years ago to the Titans. Also of concern in Indy is kicker Adam Vinateri, who missed three kicks Sunday, essentially costing his team the game. Love the spot here for the Titans as they aren't going to pass on an opportunity to kick the Colts while they're down. 10* Tennessee

8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): Teams that start 1-0 typically have difficulty sustaining "momentum" (I'll always hate that word!) when they have to hit the road in Week 2, going a money-burning 5-18 ATS in that role since 2016. Taking it a step further, when the team is playing the second of B2B road games to open the year, they are 1-14 ATS (since '15), losing by an average of 8.4 PPG. Now this particular situation is a bit unique w/ Buffalo as they're actually playing in MetLife Stadium for a second consecutive week! They came back to beat the Jets last week, 17-16, erasing a 16-0 hole they'd dug themselves thanks to FOUR 1st half turnovers. But I can't see them pulling off the "New York sweep" here as I remain bearish on their 2019 fortune. 

The Giants weren't as lucky as the Bills in Week 1 as they ran into a revamped Cowboys offense and got blown out 35-17. The way they defended Dallas' new RPO-heavy look was reminiscent of something you'd probably see in a backyard football game! But the good news is that the Bills don't have the same level of talent as the Cowboys. Also interesting is that the Giants' offense actually gained 470 total yards last week (7.2 yards per play!), exactly 100 more than the Bills did in their victory. The disparate results boiled down to efficiency, particularly in the red zone where the G-Men failed to score at all in two of their four chances. 

It is important to remember that the Bills trailed the Jets 16-0 midway through the third quarter last week. At the time, QB Josh Allen had already turned the ball over four times (2 INTs/2 fumbles) and the offense had just 155 total yards. But incredibly, they would more than double that yardage total on the next three drives, scoring 17 points and pulling off a shocking comeback. Really, the Bills had no business winning that game. They also benefited from two missed Jets' kicks, an extra point and a field goal. Eli Manning is 7-0-1 ATS as a dog vs. the AFC East in his career, including a couple of memorable Super Bowl upsets you "may" remember. 8* NY Giants

8* San Francisco (1:00 ET): Interestingly enough, the same trend we cited as a reason to fade Buffalo is applicable here to the 49ers. They too opened their season w/ an "ugly" road win, beating the Buccaneers 31-17 despite being outgained. So what's the difference here w/ the Niners? Well, in the interest of full disclosure, I'm a lot higher on them than the market seems to be right now! My own personal power ratings have them as a field goal favorite for this game, which is against what I feel is one of the worst teams in the league, Cincinnati. Buck the trend here as the 49ers "shock the world" and open their season w/ B2B road wins out East!

The Bengals turned in a game effort LW in Seattle, outgaining the Seahawks 429-232, but still coming up a point short (lost 21-20). I think a lot of people are going to see how close that game was and get fooled into thinking Cincy might be some kind of a threat on a weekly basis. Don't fall into that trap. While the Bengals should be commended for staying close in a game few, if any, expected them to win (they closed +9), I don't see this team winning very many games in 2019. They have a 1st year HC (Zac Taylor) who inherited a roster that peaked several years ago. I'm not convinced the "improvements" we saw on both sides of the ball LW are any sign of things to come.

Meanwhile, all of my key indicators are pointing up for San Francisco this season. Last year, the team was dead last in turnover margin at -25 as they took the ball away only SEVEN times the entire season (including just TWO INT's)! That's a number that has a way of reverting back to the mean (league average), year to year. Already there are encouraging signs in that department as the Niners picked off THREE passes last week alone (see how that works?) and returned two for touchdowns! On offense, QB Jimmy Garoppolo is back and while his numbers from LW left a lot to be desired, note the Niners offense had TWO touchdowns negated due to penalties. To offset the travel, the team decided to stay out East this week and practice in Ohio. Smart move. Yes, they have injuries at RB, but so do the Bengals w/ Joe Mixon out. I look for the Niners to pull out a close one here. 8* San Francisco 

6* Antonio Carlos Junior (8:35 ET): Urijah Hall is nearly a 2:1 dog here, which would have seemed unconscionable back when he was dominating his season of the "The Ultimate Fighter." But he ultimately (see what I did there?!) lost the finale of that show and really hasn't been the same fighter since. He's a pedestrian 7-7 his L14 fights, even though when he wins, it is typically in impressive (and brutal) fashion. Yet, its not hard to defeat and the playbook is out there on how to do it. Expect Antonio Carlos Junior to make relative short work of Hall here and get the victory. 

This is a middleweight (185 lbs) fight, set for three rounds. Carlos Jr is also trying to rekindle some lost magic here as he's off a unanimous decision loss to Ian Heinisch back in May. But in his case, that stopped a five-fight win streak where it appeared he was finally living up to his potential. Carlos Jr has only lost three times in his career and has been stopped just once. This should be a relatively simple fight for him as he should be able to take Hall down rather quickly and keep him down for the duration of the fight, if he doesn't finish things quickly. 

Hall has impressive striking, but that's about it. He struggles mightily against opponents that can outwrestle him and Carlor Jr happens to fit that bill. On the mat, this will be a one-sided fight. Another key is that Carlos Jr is a "big" middleweight after previously fighting at 205 lbs (LHW). The drop in class has done him good as we saw during the five-fight win streak He gets back on track tonight. 6* Antonio Carlos Jr

8* Florida State (7:30 ET): It's "put up or shut up" time for Willie Taggart and Florida State. The Seminoles were supposed to be improved in 2019 after going 5-7 SU LY, their 1st losing season since 1976! But so far, there hasn't been much sign of that. It started w/ an outright loss to Boise State in Week 1, a spot where we faded the 'Noles as the circumstances surrounding that game (date/time change due to Hurricane Dorian) made it seem like a real "leap of faith" (at least in our eyes) that they should be laying so many points. Still, even though we were on Boise State, we were stunned to see them shut out FSU in the 2H and come back from a DD deficit. It almost went from bad to worse LW against LA Monroe, but the 'Noles were able to escape with a 45-44 OT win. 

Virginia now seems to be the trendy pick to win the ACC Coastal (FSU is in the Atlantic w/ Clemson), which seems wide open now w/ Miami off to an 0-2 start. The Cavaliers won 8 games LY, their most in a season since 2011. They've already won conference game, opening the year by beating Pitt on the road, 30-14 (were 2.5-pt chalk). It was an even easier time LW w/ FCS William & Mary as the Hoos prevailed 52-17. Yet it sure is odd to see Virginia favored over Florida State. It's been decades since that was the case. Remember LY they were favored at Va Tech (who they still haven't beaten in 15 years) and lost the game outright. 

Maybe there is a changing of the landscape in the ACC, but it's tough to ignore the fact Florida State is 14-3 SU its L17 meetings vs. Virginia w/ all but one of the wins coming by double digits. The average margin of victory has been 24.6 PPG. While the pressure is definitely on Taggart in Tallahassee, the Seminoles have led their two games 31-19 and 24-7 at the half. Now they're underdogs for the 1st time. There won't be any kind of second half letdown this time and we're taking the points. 8* Florida State

6* St. Louis (7:15 ET): The Brewers being in the playoff race this late is a little irritating if you're someone (like us) that believe in advanced metrics. Going into yesterday, they were tied w/ the Cubs for the 2nd Wild Card spot in the National League. This despite a -24 run differential while the Cubs had outscored their opponents by 80 runs over the course of the season. Well, yesterday definitely went the Cubs way as they hammered the Pirates 17-8 while the Brew Crew lost 10-0 here in St. Louis. Milwaukee had won seven straight coming into this series, but that's over now and we're standing firm that this team WON'T make the playoffs. Fade them here. 

While the Cubs were a beneficiary, yesterday went pretty well for the Cardinals too. They now lead the NL Central by four games. They enter Saturday's game as big ML favorites w/ Jack Flaherty on the bump. It is nothing short of remarkable how well Flaherty has pitched down the stretch. Over his L8 starts, he hasn't allowed a run in five of them (gone 6+ innings in all five). He's allowed just four runs TOTAL in the eight starts and one was unearned. He's earned a win in six of the last seven and has gone eight innings w/o allowing a single run in the last two. Since the All-Star Break, Flaherty has a 0.71 ERA. For the year, he has a 2.42 ERA and 0.794 WHIP at home. 

Not that Flaherty needs much run support, but the Cardinals have now scored 10 runs in B2B games. This is a revenge spot for Flaherty as three of the four runs he's allowed since the start of August came in his only loss during that stretch ... to Milwaukee. Flaherty has struggled against the Brewers this year, but I can't see that being the case tonight. Jordan Lyles has been a much better pitcher for Milwaukee than he was for Pittsburgh and started opposite Flaherty in that game last month. But I can't see him beating him twice in less than a month. The Brewers, who are a sub-.500 road team, are just 2-5 this season after being shutout. 6* St. Louis

8* Auburn (7:00 ET): Kent State is going to be very bad this year. You may already guessed or even know that, but it is essential to this play. The bottom of the MAC just isn't ready to be competitive on a national platform such as this. We saw an example of that last week with our play on Wisconsin, who annihilated Central Michigan 61-0. Well, Auburn is probably every bit as good as Wisconsin and even though both games saw them fail to score enough points to even cover this spread, look for this to be the Tigers' coming out party. Lay the big number.

Ironically, Kent State's QB Woody Barrett is an Auburn transfer. Perhaps it will be nice for Barrett to see some of his former teammates, but once the game gets going he may very well regret his decision to change sides. The Golden Flashes have yet to do much offensively as they put up only 200 total yards in the season-opening 30-7 loss to Arizona State. But losing that game was to be expected as they were 24-pt road dogs. Ironically, in victory last week, they may have been even less impressive. They needed OT to get by FCS Kennesaw State 26-23. Kent was only a 4.5-pt favorite in the game, which says a lot about the state of the program, and needed a late FG just to force OT. They were outgained by 100 yards (-7 FD's) and Kennesaw State is hardly a top tier FCS school.

The jump in class here is about as steep as it gets for the Golden Flashes. Auburn had the "miracle" win to start the year over Oregon and then a less than stellar showing last week vs. Tulane. They will be looking for that proverbial "pound of flesh" and Kent State happens to be an ideal candidate. The Flashes are 0-14 SU all-time vs. the SEC, losing by an average of 37 PPG. They have allowed an average of 211 rush yards the first two games, which means this is the spot where the Auburn offense finally gets going. They can name the score here as they get ready for the SEC gauntlet. 8* Auburn 

10* Iowa (4:00 ET): I know that Iowa State is at home, off a bye and hasn't beaten Iowa in five years. But they're going to have to wait at least another year in Ames to hold the "coveted" Cy-Hawk Trophy. We were on Iowa in this matchup last year and they came through w/ an "ugly" 13-3 win in Iowa City. They're better in 2019 while you can't say the same for Iowa State. Look for no further than the Cyclones nearly losing the opener two weeks ago to FCS Northern Iowa, needing triple overtime to get by 29-26 as 20.5-point favorites. Now they take on the premier program in the state. Lay the points. 

Iowa is 2-0 w/ wins over Miami OH (38-14) and Rutgers (30-0). I thought last week's Big 10 opener couldn't have gone much better. What promises to be a good defense held the Scarlet Knights to just 125 total yards and two of the last three years they've held ISU to just a field goal. Remember that for LY's game, Iowa State was also off a bye, an unexpected one, as their season opener vs. South Dakota State had been cancelled. The Hawkeyes have won nine straight non-conference games, going 6-3 ATS in the process. They are also 17-2 SU their L19 games as a favorite, going 12-6-1 ATS. That includes 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS on the road. Perhaps the best news for Iowa coming into this year's matchup though is how their number of yards per play on offense is up significantly - from 5.44 to 6.27. 

I've seen a lot of people talk about how Iowa will struggle to run the ball in this game. Well, how about the other side of that equation? Iowa State ran for only 25 yards on 19 carries in LY's game and that was w/ David Montgomery as RB. Montgomery is now off to the NFL and Iowa's defense has allowed just 143 yards rushing - total - in its two games. While ISU's win over Northern Iowa was their seventh in a row at home (tying a school record), it was ugly as they could score only one TD in regulation. Both teams came into the year ranked, but only one (Iowa obviously) deserved to be and they deserve to be far bigger favorite for this rivalry matchup. 10* Iowa

8* Michigan State (4:00 ET): The Big 10 would appear to be quite loaded this year. I've got six teams in my Top 20. We're already playing one of them (Penn State) elsewhere in the 3-pack and here we'll also be laying double digits w/ another conference power, that being Michigan State. Sure, this play "smells" awfully similar to last week's misfire w/ Washington over Cal. It's a revenge spot for the favorite, but with one significant caveat. In this instance, the underdog (Arizona State) is traveling cross-country. We took the Sun Devils in LY's meeting, but not here. Lay the points. 

When Herm Edwards was hired to the coach at Arizona State, the jury was definitely out. But, ironically, it was the win over Michigan State in the 2nd week of last year that silenced the doubters. As mentioned, we were on ASU in that game as it was a late night start in hot Tempe. Edwards hired a good coaching staff around him, but a big difference between this year and last is the personnel on the field. Last year, it was a multi-year starter at QB (Manny Wilkins) throwing to one of the top receivers in the country (N'Keal Henry). Both are gone and this time the Sun Devils have a true frosh (Jayden Daniels) making his first career road start. The early returns on this ASU offense haven't been great as they've put up just 49 points against Kent State and Sacramento State. Last week's lone TD came w/ just 4:42 remaining on a 72-yard pass play. By the way, the Sun Devils' offensive line has been shaky as well.

Of course, it wasn't necessarily the offense that won the game for ASU last year. It was a 16-13 game where the defense held Sparty to just 2.3 YPC.  But Michigan State didn't have much trouble moving the ball, by land or through the air, last week against Western Michigan. They rolled up 582 total yards in the 51-17 win, including 251 on the ground. Remember that Michigan State was really hurt by injuries last year and easily could have finished better than 7-6. They're a much more experienced group this year and get revenge against Arizona State here. 8* Michigan State

10* Tulsa (3:30 ET): We've already seen Oklahoma State cover one double digit spread on the road as they went to Corvallis to open the season and beat Oregon State 52-36 as 13.5-pt chalk. But w/ this defense, we're not sure they're built to do that very often. The Pokes will be improved in 2019 after a string of 10-win seasons (three in a row) was broken last year (went 7-6) due to a bunch of upsets. They have beaten Tulsa all three times under Gundy by an average of 33 PPG. But this Tulsa team is a bit better and that Cowboys defense remains suspect. This is also Tulsa's home opener. Take the points.

Oklahoma State also has some bigger fish to fry, namely next week's Big 12 opener in Austin. That's a game that's been decided by a field goal three of the last four years (all OSU wins). But for Tulsa, this is an in-state rivalry they'll treat w/ the utmost importance. For Oklahoma State, it's hardly Bedlam. I mentioned earlier that Tulsa is 0-3 vs. Gundy-led OSU teams and none of the games have been particularly close. Well, this is the Cowboys first trip East since 2011. It's a big deal for the Golden Hurricane. This is an experienced team w/ an underrated defense that played a lot of good teams close last year, including Texas, whom they only lost to by 7 (as 22-pt dogs) in Austin. 

Tulsa has already played Michigan State, who they lost to 28-7 in Week 1. While the Golden Hurricane were held to a frighteningly low yardage total (just 80 due to sacks!), that was an odd game. Michigan State scored five times in the second quarter, but one was a defensive TD and another was a safety. The three offensive scores, all field goals, came on drives that totaled ZERO yards. So Tulsa's D really did a good job against a superior opponent. Last week, they blew out San Jose State 34-16 w/ 539 total yds as they discovered the run game. In two games, Oklahoma State's defense has yielded an average of 164 rush YPG. Look for this to be a surprisingly close game. 10* Tulsa

8* Penn State (12:00 ET): It's only been two games, but it's hard not to like what James Franklin and Penn State are doing. The metrics sure do love them as the Nittany Lions have outscored their two opponents 124-20. Sure, one opponent was an FCS school (Idaho) and they started slow last week against Buffalo (trailed 10-7 at halftime!). But when you start slow and still win 45-13, covering a 31-point spot to boot, that probably means you're a pretty talented football team. And talented in precisely what PSU is. I'll gladly lay the points in this Noon ET kickoff in Happy Valley. 

Pitt is coming off a pretty dominant 20-10 win over Ohio last Saturday in what was a really early kick (11 AM local time). The Panthers did finish w/ more than a 2:1 edge in total yards (481-212), but it's obviously a big step up in class this week as they hit the road to face a Power 5 opponent. It's a step up in class they haven't been able to handle under HC Pat Narduzzi as they're 0-3 ATS the L3 years, losing by a combined 64 pts in the previous two. In its last four games vs. P5 opponents, Pitt has scored a grand total of just 40 points. They have more turnovers (6) than touchdowns (4) in those games and have failed to gain a first down on half of their drives! 

That futile run against P5 opponents, including the season-opening loss to Virginia where the Panthers could only muster 14 pts and were completely shutout in the second half. It's a better defense that they'll be facing here and Franklin isn't shy about "pouring it on" late either. Penn State is 22-3 SU its last 25 games and has covered the spread in 16 of those games. They are also 12-4 ATS the L16 games at Beaver Stadium. Last year, this game was 51-6 and that was in Pittsburgh. It certainly doesn't help that the Panthers are banged up along the defensive line going into this matchup. 8* Penn State

8* Arkansas State (12:00 ET): Going against #3 Georgia might sound like a risky proposition, however, might the Bulldogs be a bit "sleepy" in this early kickoff Saturday in Athens? They've got a much bigger game on deck (Notre Dame) next Saturday and certainly the players are feeling pretty good about themselves right now following wins over Vandy (30-6) and Murray State (63-17) to start the season. We're obviously getting a lot of points in this matchup and that scenario hasn't exactly treated UGA well under Kirby Smart as he's just 7-11 ATS as a home favorite, including 2-5 ATS vs. Group of Five teams. Georgia has also failed to cover four of the last five times it's been asked to lay 31 or more. Take the points. 

Arkansas State is off a highly emotional win as their HC Blake Anderson surprised the team by showing up before the game. Anderson had been on leave due to his wife, Wendy, passing away from cancer last month. Right from the kickoff, the Red Wolves played inspired football in Las Vegas, crushing UNLV 43-17. It was their first win of the year after losing under interim HC David Duggan to SMU the previous week, 37-30. That loss no longer looks like a reason for the Red Wolves to hang their heads, however, especially with the difference in the game being a kick return for touchdown. SMU just clobbered North Texas, so they might be a better football team than most realize. 

Arkansas State is obviously going to be driven by emotion the rest of the season. HC Anderson is now back with the team. Even the Georgia program has decided to honor Wendy's passing by announcing a a "pink-out" for Saturday's game. I just can't see ASU being blown out here, at least not to the degree the oddsmakers are calling for. Last year, the Red Wolves hung nearly 400 total yards on Alabama's defense, a game which will have them better prepared for what they face here. We saw what the offense could do last week and in two games, they have scored 73 points. They'll score enough here to cover the generous number. 8* Arkansas State

10* Under Rays/Angels (10:07 ET): Tampa Bay is coming off a couple of high-scoring losses, and costly ones at that as they've now fallen out of the top Wild Card spot in the American League. Those games, which ended up 10-8 and 6-4, took place in Arlington where - more often than not - games tend to be high scoring (average of 11.2 rpg scored). But now they'll be matched up w/ an Angels team that is on a four-game losing streak, all Unders as well. In those four games, the Halos have scored a grand total of six runs. This should be a low-scoring game. Take the Under. 

We know the Rays have good pitching. They are #2 in runs allowed in the American League, trailing only the team that just swept the Angels (Cleveland). Charlie Morton will get the baseball in Friday's opener, looking to win 15 games for a 2nd straight season. Morton's last start was quite good as he struck out 10 in six innings and allowed just three runs on five hits. He's now allowed 3 ER or fewer in four of his last five outings. During that time, he's given up just one home run. He has a 3.11 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 30 starts. The Angels have gone Under the L6 times they've faced a starter w/ a WHIP below 1.15. 

There's some question as to just whom will be in - or out - of the Angels lineup tonight. Mike Trout is expected back after missing the last week w/ a nerve condition in his right foot. But Shohei Ohtani's season looks to be done as he's set to undergo knee surgery. As already mentioned, LA simply isn't scoring much now. Trout's absence is a part of that, but overall this is a team hitting just .215 over the last week. On the bright side, Andrew Heaney is their most profitable starter this year and he's set to start Friday. He had a really strong August and has a 3.38 ERA and 1.10 WHIP his L7 starts. The Rays are 5-0 Under the L5 times they've faced a lefty and 26-12-1 the L39 times they've faced on the road. Heaney's only start vs. the Rays this year saw him allow just one run on two hits in 5 IP.  10* Under Rays/Angels

8* North Carolina (6:00 ET): Who says "you can't go back home again?" Mack Brown is back in Chapel Hill and North Carolina is 2-0 SU/ATS after opening the season w/ B2B upsets over South Carolina and Miami. Now, for the first time since Brown's return, I'm ready to proclaim the Tar Heels as being the better team GOING INTO the matchup as this week they face Wake Forest. Yes, the game takes place in Winston-Salem but this Demon-Deacons team appears overrated. Starting a season w/ three consecutive upsets is rare, but not unprecedented. Take the points. 

In an odd quirk, this is actually NOT an ACC game even though both schools hail from that particular conference. Because of the size of the ACC (14 teams) and that they aren't in the same division, the schools decided to renew their rivalry on their own. Good for them. The home team has won four straight w/ UNC's 50-14 triumph in 2015 being the last meeting. But during his previous tenure (1988-97), Brown feasted on his in-state rivals, winning the last 16 such games. I don't think there's any denying that Brown has this program pointed back in the right direction. The Tar Heels were going to be improved this year no matter who the coach was (lost five games LY by 7 pts or less), but it's looking like Brown was the right man for the job.

Both teams have had their fair share of close calls so far. North Carolina's two wins have come by a total of seven points and both saw them rally late in the 4Q. They did finish w/ a 483-270 edge in total yds against South Carolina despite being down 20-9 entering the fourth. Wake Forest barely escaped Utah State in Week 1, winning on a late Kendall Hinton TD. But the WR is now injured and out. Last week against Rice, the Demon Deacons didn't pull away until late and actually had fewer first downs than the Owls. The Tar Heels were a lot better than their 5-19 SU record the L2 seasons and Brown clearly has them trending in the right direction. My power ratings indicate they should be FAVORED here. 8* North Carolina