8* Under Ark Little Rock/Iowa State (6:10 ET): Let's tip our cap to the incredible comeback Arkansas Little Rock pulled off at Purdue's expense, but at the same time it's very fair to say the Trojans should feel extremely fortunate to still be playing. They trailed the Boilermakers by double digits with just three minutes remaining before an incredible flurry of three-pointers forced overtime and then it took a second extra period to emerge victorious 85-83 (were +8).  The total for that game was a very low 127.5, so the game did go Over in regulation, but you'll note the O/U line is now much higher for this second round game vs. Iowa State, who is off a high-scoring affair themselves, but that was in an ideal matchup for them. Look for this game to be a lot lower-scoring for both sides.  Take the Under.

Iowa State got to face Iona in Round 1.  That was a team that was going to try to play "their style" only with less talent. Therefore, a 94-81 win shouldn't have been all that surprising. The Cyclones opponent here will play a lot different however, as ALR actually would much prefer to slow this game way down and limit the number of overall possessions. ALR comes in allowing only 59.9 points per game for the year (3rd best in the country!) and remember I touted this defense in a 70-50 win over LA Monroe in the Sun Belt Tourney Final last Sunday.  ISU doesn't figure to shoot the ball at a 50% clip (as they did vs. Iona) again here and I'm banking on them having a rebounding disadvantage as well. Ark Little Rock doesn't turn the ball over much either (just 37 last 5 games!), thereby limiting "extra possessions" for the Cyclones here.

Josh Hagins turned in a performance for the ages vs. Purdue (31 points), but the Trojans leading scorer averages only 12.8 PPG and I think it's important to remember he had only two points going into halftime on Thursday.  The team wound up attempting 77 shots vs. Purdue, which is a lot, as for the sake of reference you should note that ISU allowed Iona to take only 64 shots (admittedly a game that ended in regulation). But I think most important of all is to note that Thursday marked the first time all season that ALR went Over the total as an underdog (6-1) and they are also 9-2 Under when playing on one or less days rest. 8* Under Arkansas Little Rock/Purdue

10* Under Yale/Duke (2:40 ET):  Both of these teams went Over in their respective first round games. I specifically want to 'tip my cap' to Yale, who I had in their outright upset of Baylor (continuing the annual trend of a 12 seed over a 5 in this event). The Bulldogs shot 53.1% w/ the unheralded Makai Mason (not even their best player!) scoring a career-high 31 points.  The 79-75 final marked quite the high score a team that would prefer to play at a slower pace and limit possessions. When it comes to average length of possession, Yale is among the national leaders in terms of holding onto the basketball. I anticipate that will be a point of emphasis here against a Duke side that rates as one of the most efficient offenses in the country. But like Yale, the Blue Devils are due for an offensive downturn from their first game.  Take the Under. 

The key for Duke in it's closer than expected 93-85 win over UNC Wilmington was getting to the free throw line w/ incredible abundance.  Clearly, Coach K did his scouting on the opponent as UNCW is well-known for fouling a lot.  Exactly one-third (31 of 93) of the Blue Devils' points came from the charity stripe. That's a very high percentage, obviously.  While they're a good FT shooting team, Duke only averages 18 makes per game for the season (Yale allows only 18 attempts per game!). It also helped that Marshall Plumlee turned in a career-high 23 points Thursday.  Duke has only shot 42.2% from the field its last five games and that could be a big problem here against an opponent that likes to limit the total number of possessions and allows just 63.6 points per game. Don't expect many second chances for the Blue Devils in this one on the offensive end either; Baylor found out the hard way just how effective Yale is on the board (2nd nationally in rebounding differential).

How ironic that Plumlee has an older brother named Mason. For Yale, Makai Mason turned in a career-high himself (in points) on Thursday, including a perfect 11 for 11 from the free throw line. Both players should experience an obvious drop in offensive production here.  This is a unique matchup as it is a rematch from the regular season, an 80-61 win by Duke (had 'em!), that stayed Under the total. The oddsmakers have adjusted accordingly, but not by enough in my estimation as Yale is 9-2 Under their L11 games where the O/U line is between 140 and 149.5 points. Don't discount Duke being short-handed hurting them offensively either. 10* Under Yale/Duke

8* Over Penguins/Flyers (1:05 ET):  The battle of Pennsylvania is renewed on Saturday and this edition carries more importance than per usual as these two are in a battle for one of the final playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. Currently, Pittsburgh has a four-point lead and that has them in the catbird's seat when it comes to the Wild Card.  Philadelphia is also just three points back of Detroit, so both of these teams could conceivably end up playing for Lord Stanley's Cup.  While I have no opinion on who will end up getting the two points here, I do love the Over as in the only prior meeting this season, the Pens & Flyers combined for seven goals on 77 shots. Both have been scoring a lot lately as well. Take the Over.

Philly has scored at least three goals in six consecutive games following a 3-2 win in Chicago Weds night.  What a shocker that was as Flyers came in as +155 underdogs on the ML and were somehow able to emerge from a 5-3 Blackhawks' power play unscathed. That win did come on the heels of B2B four-goal efforts and twice in the last five games we've seen the Flyers put at least 40 shots on goal. Of course, they'll give up their fair share as well as they rank near the bottom of the league in # of shots allowed per game and have for the vast majority of this season. Prior to the big win in Chicago, seven of Philly's last eight games had seen either them or their opponent score four times.  The Over is 10-3 this season in Flyers' home games when the total is 5.0.

Pittsburgh also allows 30+ shots per game, but I continue to be surprised that they haven't scored more goals this season. Over the L5 games, they've really picked up the pace however, averaging 3.0 goals and 36.2 shots. That doesn't even include a six-goal effort on 3.6 at New Jersey. They scored four times in a win over Carolina Thursday; their fourth straight.  One area of concern here for the Pens though is goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury's career numbers vs. the Flyers. He has a 4.20 goals against average his L6 starts against them. Two hot teams (and offenses) in this early start time should lead to plenty of fireworks and I anticipate a high-scoring affair. 8* Over Penguins/Flyers

8* Miami FL (12:10 ET): I respect Wichita State quite a bit, but I feel this line is a classic case of "putting the apple cart before the horse" as Miami still deserves to be the favorite in this second round matchup. Sure, the Shockers looked quite impressive in dismantling their first round opponent, Arizona, who looked woefully unprepared for the task at hand. Plus, Miami failed to cover its first round matchup vs. 14-seed Buffalo. But that combination has served to give us some tremendous value on a Hurricanes team that boasts one of the most efficient offenses in all of College Basketball. This is a tough matchup for WSU, who may have rolled through the Missouri Valley, but this is a big step up in class.  Take the points.

It's certainly odd to see an 11-seed favored over a 3-seed, isn't it? If Wichita State were to win, this would be labeled an upset, but the linesmakers clearly disagree with such an assertion. Again, I absolutely respect what the Shockers bring to the table; it's just that I don't give them a better than 50 percent chance of winning this game, which means fading them is the way to go.  Lost in their tremendous defensive effort on Friday is that they shot the ball at only a 40% clip themselves. They were even worse in the "First Four" game vs. Vanderbilt (37.5%) and even worse than that in the MVC Tourney vs. Northern Iowa (31.7%). Also, remember that this is the Shockers' third game in five days, a tough ask, and it's an early game to boot.

Though Arizona came in averaging 81.5 points per game, Miami offers a tougher matchup thanks to boasting the nation's 12th most efficient offense (Arizona was 20th).  The 'Canes have an experienced backcourt, which figures to turn the ball over far less than Arizona did on Thursday.  PG Angel Rodriguez figures to be the difference maker in this one and don't discount his or the entire team's ability to get to the free throw line (went 26 of 34 vs. Buffalo). If Wichita State has one Achilles' heel, it is that they foul too much.  The Canes are 28-12 ATS when off three or more consecutive ATS losses. 8* Miami FL

8* Cincinnati (9:55 ET):  This is yet another favorite not getting much love in terms of % of total wagers on the game and I totally disagree with the majority. What is interesting, however, is that despite the majority of tickets being written on St. Joe's here, the line has moved in the opposite direction. That's a signal to me that the so-called "smart money" is w/ me on Cincinnati here and for good reason. The Bearcats are a potentially dangerous team in this Tournament for anyone that might face them. Simply put, you would expect a favorite to be attracting "more love" than this and if they aren't, then there's value.  I realize what St. Joe's did as an underdog this year, not to mention on the road and in the A-10 Tournament. But many times, we see an unlikely run through the Conference Tourney work against a team (Seton Hall last night!) and that's what I anticipate happening in this one.  

St. Joe's pulled B2B upsets over Dayton (overrated) and VCU en route to winning the Atlantic 10 Tournament. I wouldn't put a ton of stock into winning that final game as neither team really had anything to play for as both knew they were safely in the field of 68 by that point.  In all three A-10 Tourney games, the Hawks scored 82 points or more, but I'd look for that run to come to a screeching halt here against a Cincinnati defense that ranks in the Top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency. The Bearcats allow just 93.3 points per 100 possessions and have held 11 consecutive opponents below 45% shooting overall.  St. Joe's has met four teams in the top 50 in defensive efficiency this season and never shot better than 45% from the floor (29.7% from three-point range). 

Of course, the last time we saw Cincinnati they came out on the losing end of that 4OT thriller vs. UConn.  Maybe that's why the public seems to have soured on them here.  But, even in defeat, it was an admirable showing nonetheless and this is a team that has not lost B2B games in 2016.  While St. Joe's could clearly be labeled as an "overachiever" this season (went 22-11 ATS), Cincy not only suffered that 4OT loss their last time out, but also five defeats by two points or less during the course of the campaign! Despite their tenacious defense, they don't foul much (just 15.5x per game) and w/ St. Joe's struggling to force turnovers that means few "extra possessions" for the Hawks. Of the four 8-9 matchups, I view this one as the biggest mismatch. 8* Cincinnati

8* Michigan (9:40 ET): Props to Michigan for coming through on Wednesday against Tulsa. I was on the other side (Tulsa) and while it was a one-point deficit for the Wolverines going into the final minute, they not only pulled off the SU win, but the cover (by one-half point) as well. Now, given that I just went against the Maize & Blue, you might be surprised to find that I'm on them just two days later. But consider that a) they're now getting points and b) this is a much better matchup for them vs. Notre Dame.  "First four" winners have a "tradition" getting to at least the Round of 32 (happened every year) and looking at the current Tournament landscape, I'd say Michigan has the best chance of keeping that trend alive. Take the points here as HC John Beilein is now 14-4 ATS all-time in the Big Dance.

Keep in mind that Michigan was able to beat Tulsa despite shooting only 40.7% from the field, including 6 of 25 from three-point range. This is a team that led the Big 10 w/ 9.3 made three-pointers per game. What makes this a great matchup for the Wolverines is that Notre Dame is just atrocious defensively, ranking 172nd in efficiency. Only six Tournament teams are worse and that group can be collectively labeled "the 16 seeds."  So, look for Michigan to have a bounce back game offensively here in Brooklyn.  Really, the Wolverines could not have asked for a better draw here as their two weaknesses (defense, rebounding) are things that Notre Dame is unlikely, or incapable, to take advantage of.  

While Michigan's last three wins have come by a combined ten points, that's a lot better than some of the Fighting Irish's recent results.  A 78-47 loss to North Carolina in the ACC Tournament marked the third time in the last six games that the Irish fell by at least 18 points. Keep in mind that they also trailed Duke by as many as 16 in their first ACC Tourney game, only to rally back and beat a depleted Blue Devils squad in overtime.  While Michigan HC Beilein has been outstanding in past tournaments, Notre Dame has really struggled in the Big Dance under Mike Brey, including an atrocious 1-6 ATS in the Round of 64 since '06. The fact that the Fighting Irish are 321st in 3-pt FG% defense does not bode well for them here - at all.  8* Michigan

8* Texas (9:50 ET):  Shaka Smart's Longhorns don't seem to be getting a lot of love here and I'm not sure I understand why. Of the four six seeds in this field, they certainly seem like the "safest" bet to me, even if the spread disagrees. Well, actually, they opened and remain the largest favorite of all the 6 vs. 11 matchups! That's certainly justified to me.  Northern Iowa would not be here if not for a run through the Missouri Valley Tournament. Granted, that included a win over top seeded Wichita State, but let's not forget this Panthers team was once 2-6 SU in MWC play and that league was way down this year. Texas hails from the much tougher Big 12 (best conference in America) and has wins over Iowa State, at Baylor and West Virginia (two), not to mention North Carolina during the non-conference slate. Lay the points.

Shaka Smart was of course brought to Austin because of what he did at VCU. There, his Rams went 9-3 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, most of that damage done during that incredible Final Four run. Smart clearly has more talent to work with here.  A quick exit ("one and done") in their conference tournament should theoretically allow for Cameron Ridley's foot to heal.  Sticking with the inside, Texas has one of the best shot blockers in the country in Prince Ibeh.  Guard Isaiah Taylor is the team's top scorer (14.8 PPG) and a big reason why they don't turn the ball over much. The 'Horns aren't afraid to play at a slow pace and of course will press as is Smart's trademark.

Give credit to Northern Iowa for making their run, but there have been plenty of close decisions go their way down the stretch. Their last four wins have all come by six points or less (by 15 pts total!), two of them by just two points. Please give your condolences to Evansville, the team UNI beat in the MWC Tourney Final, as the Panthers beat them three times by three points or less.  The point that I am trying to make here is that Northern Iowa should feel pretty fortunate to be here at all.  In three of their last four wins, they've gotten away with scoring 57 points or less. While that speaks to their defense, they simply won't win that kind of game against a superior foe. 8* Texas

10* Under Weber State/Xavier (9:20 ET):  The committee did the Big Sky contingent no favors with this matchup.  Not only will Xavier likely be "out for blood" (suffered upset loss to Seton Hall in the Big East Tourney), but it is very likely that Weber State is going to struggle to score here. While the Wildcats' scoring average of 76.7 points per game looks impressive, note that came at the expense of arguably the weakest schedule any tourney team faced.  Even among Big Sky teams, WSU ranked 10th in three-point percentage and 11th in free throw percentage.  They are coming off a 62-point effort vs. Montana in the Tourney Final. Throw in that Xavier is overdue for an Under (seven straight Overs!) and likely to take its "foot off the gas" here late (provided the game gets out of hand), I think we have a strong recipe for an Under.

Recent Xavier games have been really high scoring. I realize that's something no one wants to hear when beginning a discussion of taking the Under, but I just want to illustrate that this stretch has seen them both score and allow more than what they average for the year.  The Musketeers' average of 88.4 points their last five games has to start coming down a little as does them allowing 85 PPG over the same stretch. That stretch of games of course came against conference opponents that they were familiar with, all of them the second time they had faced those teams.   This is a different scenario. They did shoot only 34% against Seton Hall in their loss a week ago. One player they will have to contend with here is Joel Bolomboy, who has 299 rebounds this season on the defensive end alone. Limiting Xavier to one shot per possession more often than not would be huge for Weber State here.

On the other end of the floor, however, Weber State is not a great offensive rebounding team. They take a high volume of three-pointers, but don't necessarily make a lot of them and that should hold true here. Defensively, Xavier holds teams to just 40.7% shooting away from home, including 28.5(!)% from three-point range.  Again, the hope here is the Musketeers build a big early lead and then scoring goes way down as the game moves on. That thought is enough to prevent me from laying the points here, but the Under is a strong play. 10* Under Weber State/Xavier

8* Edmonton (9:05 ET):  You won't find the Oilers in this price range very often, but in this case it's more than justified based on their impressive 6-4 win over St. Louis the other night and the fact that Vancouver just dropped B2B killer home games.  Losses to both the Jets and Avalanche all but ended the Canucks slim hopes of making a playoff push and I'm anticipating they'll hit the ice flat here.  What's really got to be eye-opening for Vancouver fans is that their team is far closer to Edmonton (three points) than they are to the playoffs (10 points back).  It's a matchup of teams w/ the two worst goal differentials in the Western Conference here and given that the Oilers are actually a .500 team here on home ice, I'll throw my support behind them.

Now Edmonton's win over the Blues needs to be taken w/ a little grain of salt as they scored an incredible four power play goals, which is obviously well above the norm. Then again, after going just 2 for their last 33 w/ the man advantage, they were likely due to turn things around in that department. I should mention that the Oilers have won 6 of their last 10 games and what's actually interesting is that a majority of those victories have come on the road. But at home is clearly where they're better (17-17-2 overall) and I think they'll still be motivated after losing to Arizona and Nashville here earlier in the week. Over the last five games, they are giving up an average of just 26.8 shots/game, which is very good.

Vancouver continues to give up plenty of shots on a game by game basis and that number has now reached 33.0 on the road for the season.  Thats not a good sign when they only average 2.36 goals per game themselves, which ranks 27th overall in the league.  Since Feb 13, the Canucks have won exactly one road game.  Goalie Jacob Markstrom really struggled in his last start, giving up five goals to Winnipeg on only 29 shots. For the Oilers, Cam Talbot was not at his best Wednesday, but he didn't have to be and his save percentage over the course of the season is slightly better than Markstrom's. 8* Edmonton

10* Dallas (8:35 ET):  For much of the year, Golden State has clearly been undervalued, crazy as that may sound. After all, how else can a team be 37-27-3 ATS (57.3%) at the pay window? The truth is that it's very hard for oddsmakers to handicap a historically dominant team, which is why we're seeing the great ATS marks from both the Warriors and the Spurs. But, here, we have a rare spot where GSW is not being undervalued. In fact, it's a really tough spot for them to be laying points on the road against a desperate Dallas team w/ a major game (at San Antonio) on deck for tomorrow night. Secondly, this is a rare instance where my own personal power ratings do NOT suggest the Warriors are undervalued! Take the points.

The Mavs already have beaten the Warriors once this year, albeit w/o Steph Curry. That win of course took place here in Dallas as Golden State hasn't lost at home this season. The Warriors' average margin of victory on the road dips to just +7.6 points per game as they tend to give up a LOT of points (107.9 per game).  Dallas, who has since lost a rematch 127-107 in Oakland, comes into tonight's game in dire need of a victory as they have dropped six of their last seven. But many of those losses were close (five by seven pts or less, three by a total of six points) and they did cover at Cleveland two nights ago, losing by just one.  Entering the day, the Mavs find themselves in a tie for seventh in the West, just one game ahead of the hard-charging Jazz (who won last night by 34). The upcoming schedule is by no means easy (home & home w/ Portland, at Golden State), so this is a team that needs to pull off an upset.

Dallas pulled an upset for me Monday night when they went into Charlotte and won 107-96. Still, the offense has been in a funk the last five games, averaging just 99.2 PPG when they are averaging 104.6 for the year here at home.  Of course, their last two games were on the road.  We should start to see an increase in offensive production tonight.  As for Golden State, after a long stretch of home games against (mostly) non-playoff teams, this will be the first time they have been tested in awhile. I really think that the "look ahead" factor (to San Antonio) plays a role here as well. They've done it before, but laying this many points on the road is too tough an ask given the situation on both sides here. 10* Dallas

8* Portland (8:05 ET):  All of a sudden, the Blazers have begun to cool off. They've lost six of their last eight w/ every defeat coming out on the road and the two wins taking place at home. Of course, a little regression had to be in order for this team after it previously won 14 of 16 (while at the same time going 12-4 ATS) from the end of January until March 1st. They also just played Oklahoma City and San Antonio, two of the top three teams in the league, both on the road. Let us take a moment to appreciate the job HC Terry Stotts has done this year as four starters from LY's group (which went to the playoffs) left in the offseason, including All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge. My own personal power ratings suggest Portland should be the favorite here & I'm inclined to agree.  Take the points.

Last night in San Antonio, the Blazers "only" lost by eight, but that was after outscoring the Spurs 32-23 in a relatively meaningless fourth quarter.  Then again, they were only down two at halftime.  It seems to be that a halftime lead is key for Portland as they are 2-13 SU when trailing at the break, but 20-1 SU when leading! Therefore, the fact that tonight's opponent has a negative 1H scoring differential for the year has to be taken as a major positive.  So too is the fact that the Pelicans are off a rare SU win (just their 2nd in the last 10 games) as they are just 3-10 ATS this year coming off a SU win as a dog. Going against bad teams this time of year is generally a good idea when they are off a win as it is unlikely that they will be able to drum up the effort to compete in B2B contests.

Now, normally, when a team has gone just 2-8 SU its last 10 games, there might be some value there. But not here w/ New Orleans there isn't. The team they just beat (Sacramento) is the same team that accounts for their only other win over this 10-game span.  The Pelicans scored a whopping 74 pts in the first half Wednesday, but that's well above "normal" levels and they should thus see a sharp decrease here. Now, the home side has been the winning side in all three previous Portland-New Orleans matchups this year, but it's a different story this time around as one team is still competing for a playoff berth.  8* Portland

9* Under Senators/Sabres (7:05 ET):  We have two teams basically playing "out the string" here (although Ottawa fans may have yet to give up hope).  The Sens are currently seven points back of the final Wild Card in the Eastern Conference while we've long known that Buffalo is well out of contention (third fewest points in the East). These two actually have a bit of recent history when it comes to the Under as in their last five meetings, three this season, have all finished that way. So have 9 of the last 11 meetings.  Ottawa's YTD numbers might seem more conducive to the Over, but Buffalo ranks 28th in the league in goals per game and is one of the top Under teams in the league.  Go with the Under here.

The Sabres are off three consecutive games where five total goals were scored.  Far more often than not, the Under has come through here in Buffalo. It is 18-11-5 for the season including 8-4 if the number is 5.5.  Now they did just do a good job in outshooting Montreal the other night (43-22), but still lost 3-2 in overtime.  That game also saw them do something they hadn't done in the previous four, that being score a power play goal. At the same time, this penalty killing unit of theirs has to start improving after giving up seven goals in 22 chances the last seven games.  I was kind of hoping that former Senator Robin Lehner would be in goal for this one (1.57 GAA vs. his former team this year), but Chad Johnson is a viable option as well as he owns an impressive .939 save percentage his last four starts.

As for whom will be between the pipes for Ottawa tonight, it looks to be Craig Anderson and that's just fine by me as he owns a 1.66 goals against average in 14 starts vs. Buffalo.  He's stopped 52 of the last 54 shots he's seen overall.  The Senators' penalty killing unit, which figures to not be tested much given the info I laid out above, is 11 for its last 11.  The high shot totals that this team tends to give up should not be that big of a factor here given the Sabres' offensive ineptitude.  The Sens are 16-9 Under vs. division opponents this season. They have scored a total of seven goals the last two games, but one of those was the GW in OT Tuesday vs. Minnesota and that came about only after they tied the game w/ just seven seconds remaining in regulation. So, it very easily could have been just one goal, and not three, the last time we saw them. 10* Under Senators/Sabres

10* Pittsburgh (6:50 ET): In what's widely perceived to be an "even" matchup,  I feel that the wrong team is favored here.  Wisconsin closed the regular season strong, winning 11 of 12 at one point, which earned interim HC Greg Gard the job on a permanent basis.  But signs of regression have started to set in, namely a 91-80 loss at Purdue in the reg season finale and then an even more eye-opening defeat, 70-58 to Nebraska in the Big 10 Tournament. Now, yes, Pitt has lost three of four itself. But two of those losses came by exactly four points (on the road) and then the Panthers played a lot better in the ACC Tournament than the final scores showed.  I'm taking the points here, but won't be surprised at all if it's an outright upset.

Looking at Pitt's ACC Tourney results, they first beat Syracuse 72-71, a win that all but assured them of getting into the field of 68. While it was only a one-point victory, note they led by as many as 14 in the second half. A day later against North Carolina, the Panthers may have lost by 17, but that was a tie game w/ just under 16 minutes remaining. Even in the loss in the regular season finale to Georgia Tech, there was an excuse as guard Cameron Johnson was out and the team went 0 for 11 from three-point range. I understand that excuses don't "pay the bills," but to me Pitt is better than their record.  They are 30th in offensive efficiency (KenPom), great on the offensive boards and have a rotation that goes 11-deep. Their tempo and physicality is a bad matchup for their opponent here.

While Pitt may be an underachiever, to me Wisconsin has been an overachiever.  That 11-1 run in Big 10 play caught a lot of people by surprise, myself included.  I just cannot see them keeping pace in this game as they average only 63.9 PPG outside of Madison on 39.9% shooting. That was a really bad loss to Nebraska in the Big 10 Tourney where they scored only 58 points. Giving up 91 to Purdue the game prior wasn't inspiring either.  While the pundits want to say the Badgers have "transformed" under Gard, the fact is it's the same plodding approach we saw under Bo Ryan. While we shouldn't discredit that style as it got them to a National Championship Game last year, this team isn't nearly as experienced or talented. I find it curious that Wisky is favored here as their point differential is just +4.3 while Pitt's is nearly +8.0.  10* Pittsburgh

10* Iowa (3:10 ET): The Hawkeyes are one of those teams being labeled as "cold" coming into the Tourney. And I suppose that label is fair. Just to show how far Fran McCaffery's team has fallen, they were once ranked as high #3 in the human polls, but are now a seven seed! Yet, despite losing six of their last eight amidst cold shooting, the computers still think highly of this squad and so do I.  Remember, they were 16-3 (straight up) at one point, starting 7-0 in Big 10 play and beat Michigan State twice. Yes, they faltered somewhat down the stretch, but historically there is no correlation between a poor regular season finish and an early NCAA Tournament exit.  Temple is a popular "upset" pick here, but the Owls struggle when they aren't forcing turnovers and Iowa happens to be in the top 20 nationally in fewest TO's per game and seventh in assist to turnover ratio.  Lay the points.

Among "major" conferences, a group which include the American in, Temple has to be considered the weakest regular season champ. Consider that the Owls closed as a four-point dog to the #5 seed (UConn) in its own conference tourney and that was a day after UConn played a 4OT game (and they lost!). The circumstances there didn't prevent me from fading the Owls, nor will they here. While no team in the country turns it over less, Temple struggles when they aren't forcing them at the other end (just 6-9 SU when forcing 10 or less). Iowa gives it away only 10.4 times per game. The Owls shouldn't count on going to the free throw line much either in this one as Iowa sends its opponents there at the 10th lowest rate in the country.

Just to illustrate how unpopular Iowa is right now in the public's eyes, no favorite is currently receiving a lower percentage of total handle. Yet, the line has hardly moved. That should tell you something right there. I believe that a team that averages 78.1 points per game (Hawkeyes) can absolutely get its shooting back on track after being below 40% overall the L5 games.  Temple, meanwhile, barely shoots above 40% for the year.  The Owls will miss freshman Trey Lowe here and forward Daniel Dingle is battling a wrist injury. This was a very good first round draw for the Hawkeyes.  10* Iowa

8* Gonzaga (9:55 ET): Any time you have a lower seed favored, it should set off alarm bells and that's what we have here w/ an 11-seed (Gonzaga) over a 6-seed (Seton Hall).  Ironically, Seton Hall just won the Big East Tournament, so you can see what little respect that bought them. Yes, I must concede that they beat both Xavier and Villanova (both 2 seeds), on back to back days, along the way. But sometimes winning your conference tourney does more harm than good and in the case of a team that was already going to make the NCAA Tournament, I think that's the case here for the Pirates. I think that Gonzaga will relish being a much lower seed than past years and ironically, I can see them winning multiple games this weekend, something that eluded them often when seeded higher!

Gonzaga is much better than your typical 11-seed.  In fact, in a number of rankings that I respect, they are either right inside or outside of the Top 25! Only a regular season sweep at the hands of rival St. Mary's put their Tournament dreams in danger, but they avenged those by beating the Gaels in the WCC Tourney Final (I was on them). I think that a real key here is that the 'Zags haven't played since 3.8.  Meanwhile, Seton Hall played three times in three days w/ the Big East Tourney not concluding until Sunday.  The Pirates are right near the top of the country in terms of ATS record (22-9), but I feel they are due to regress of the outstanding effort last weekend.

Gonzaga actually has a much better YTD point differential heading into this matchup (+13.5 to +7.0).  Some of that is obviously owed to playing in the weaker WCC, but still, I feel it is noteworthy. With two star players - Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis - leading one of the top 25 offenses in terms of efficiency, Gonzaga was just a bad draw for Seton Hall.  The Zags shot well against the two best defenses they saw during the regular season. On defense, the Bulldogs are excellent at guarding the three-point line (as is Seton Hall) and the fact they aren't that great at forcing turnovers is somewhat mitigated by the fact the Pirates often turn it over too much.  Also, and I said this in my analysis for the Big East Title Game (won w/ the Under), don't be surprised if Seton Hall's poor FT shooting costs them. I'd just be afraid that the Pirates "wasted" some of their best efforts in the conference tourney. One final point is the venue, Denver, which actually favors Gonzaga.  8* Gonzaga

10* USC (9:50 ET):  Providence seems to be receiving overwhelming support here and I'm trying to figure out why. Sure the Friars come in riding a five-game ATS win streak. But before that they had failed to cover six in a row, going just 1-5 straight up.  Early on, there were some pretty clear warning signs that this team was a bit of a mirage despite a 14-1 SU start (finished just 9-9 L18 games).  Of course, a poor finish to its regular season is doing USC no favors here. The Trojans are just 2-6 ATS their last eight (3-5 straight up) and their defense really seemed to fail them down the stretch, giving up 80 or more points in four of those games.  Yet I still have them rated as the better team coming into this one, so take the points.

Another reason that the public seems to be flocking towards the Friars is their outstanding duo of Ben Bentil and Kris Dunn.  But Andy Enfield happens to have quite a lot of talent on hand at Southern California as well.  In fact, his Trojans happen to run a lot deeper than does Providence w/ six players averaging at least 9.8 points per game and seven have scored at least 19 in a game this year. The team ranks in the top 20 overall at 80.8 PPG. Rebounding, particularly on the offensive end, is going to be huge for USC here. They average 15 offensive rebounds per game and overlooked in the last season slide was the absence of Darion Clark, who missed seven games and the team didn't have the rebounding edge in any of them. He's back and had 20 rebounds in the two Pac 12 Tournament games.

Something to keep in mind is that USC's last three losses have all come to teams seeded 4 or higher in the tournament. Providence, once ranked as high as eighth in the country, fell all the way to a nine seed. They have been "one and done" each of the last two years in the Tournament. Meanwhile, Enfield knows what it's like to win in March as he was the one guiding that stunning run of Florida Gulf Coast a few years back.  Remember what I said about USC's offense? Well, Providence sometimes struggles to score in the half court (despite the individual talent) and is only 31.5% from three-point range this year. I look for the three-point shot to be the difference in this one. Note Providence averages exactly 74.0 PPG and the Trojans are a perfect 14-0 straight up this season when holding their opponent that amount or fewer. 10* USC

10* Stony Brook (9:40 ET):  A lot of good winning the SEC Tournament did Kentucky. Despite winning three games in three days, the Wildcats actually received a lower seed than the team they beat in the Final (Texas A&M). As a result, as soon as the bracket was released, we began hearing all about how UK deserved better than a 4-seed. The oddsmakers certainly seem to agree, installing them among the top six w/ the best odds to win the entire Tournament! But, let's pump the brakes a little, shall we? All this talk of potential matchups with Indiana and perhaps North Carolina will have Coach Cal's team likely overlooking first round opponent, Stony Brook, champions out of the America East. Take the points here.

Many times it pays to fade a trendy underdog in this tournament, that "sexy" upset that everyone seems to be on. Well, there's also a handful of teams (and this year Kentucky would be among them) that come from bigger conferences, seemingly w/ all the momentum in the world off a tourney win and then promptly struggle in the Big Dance. Kentucky has covered its last five games.  But its SEC semifinal win over Georgia was no "walk in the park" despite what the 93-80 final said. The Wildcats trailed for much of the game, even by double digits in the first half, and didn't put things away until late. Sunday's Final vs. Texas A&M was an overtime game.  Note that outside of Lexington, the Wildcats are just 9-8 straight up this season w/ a scoring differential of just +4.4 points per game.

We know about Kentucky's Tyler Ulis, but Stony Brook has a stud in their own right in the form of Jameel Warney, who averages 19.5 points and 10.7 rebounds per game. Warney went for 43 (points) in the team's 80-74 win over Vermont to clinch the automatic bid. Overall, the Seawolves can shoot (47.7 FG%), including 37 percent from three-point range.  They also do a good job at grabbing offensive rebounds (34.4 percent of all misses), which could be huge as that's a sore spot for UK on defense. I just think that the Kentucky "hype train" is a little out of control entering the Tournament and they are due for a major scare here. 10* Stony Brook

8* Nashville (8:05 ET):  As I've written about several times in the last couple weeks, Nashville's playoff fate now seems fairly safe as they've built a pretty significant cushion between themselves and the only other two teams competing for a Wild Card in the Western Conference. It now looks almost certain that the Preds will be the first of the two WC's, though they are only five points back of the suddenly slumping Blackhawks for third place in the Central Division. Therefore, I wouldn't expect any kind of "let up" here as the team returns home from a five game trip out West. After B2B losses to Calgary and Vancouver, the Preds were able to bounce back w/ a 3-2 win in Edmonton Monday night, thus avoiding a winless trek through Western Canada.  I think they'll get another two points here.

The Preds host the Islanders tonight and the visitors have dropped three of four as they jostle with the rival Rangers for second in the Metro.  Finishing second obviously means home ice advantage in a first round series, so clearly the Isles aren't lacking for motivation here either. But they are lacking Jaroslav Halak, their top goaltender, who is out for the rest of the regular season w/ the dreaded lower-body injury.  They are also lacking in road wins lately as the team's last three away games have all resulted in losses, the most recent coming Tuesday in Pittsburgh, 2-1. The team is also not getting many scoring opportunities recently and has been outshot in four of its last five games.

Nashville, on the other hand, is averaging plenty of shots recently and continues to rank well in both Corsi (7th) and Fenwick (2nd) over the course of the season. This is not a team that either division winner would want to see in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.  I'm surprised that the home record isn't a little better (six OT/shootout losses), but the bottom line is the Preds are 10-1-5 their last 16 games overall and were it not for the most losses beyond regulation in the entire league (13), this team would be an even greater lock for the postseason. They have revenge here for a 4-3 loss in Brooklyn back in October where they had a 47-28 edge in shots, but blew a two-goal lead.  8* Nashville

10* Under Hornets/Heat (7:35 ET):  This seems like an awfully high total for a Heat game. After all, Miami has spent much of the year, and still currently is the top Under team in the league (39-27-1). However, recently, we've seen them go Over in four straight and even more surprising is that the team has scored over 100 pts in every game this month. So I looked it up and I found that - right now - this would be the fourth highest total for any Heat game all season. The three higher all have come over the course of the last month. The highest (218.5) was against Golden State (on 2.24) and did go Over. But the other two, including a game I played (vs. Boston on 2.27) stayed Under. So too will this one as I'll go back to one of my favorite terms - "market correction" - as it applies to both teams in this instance.

Charlotte, like Miami, has seen a dramatic rise in overall scoring (both in points scored & allowed) recently.  They've scored 100+ in all but one game in March, that being Monday's outright loss to Dallas (which I called!) and are now averaging an impressive 113.6 points over their last five games. But this is a road game and the Hornets average only 100.2 PPG away from home. Note that they've had to play only one road game this month and that was in Philadelphia.  This team tends to not shoot the ball very well in other teams' arenas (just 42.8 FG%). Even at home last night, they didn't shoot well (40 percent) in a 107-99 win over Orlando. So already, we're starting to see some regression to the mean here and on defense things should continue to get better as over those L5 games Charlotte has allowed 5.3 PPG more than their YTD average.

These teams met a little over a month ago and the oddsmakers set the O/U line at 194.5, so as you can see there's been a dramatic swing in perception here. As I said earlier, recent Miami games have been much higher scoring than per usual as they've averaged 111.4 PPG over their last five, well above their season long average of 98.9 PPG. Over the same period, they've allowed 107.8 PPG and that's well above the YTD average of 97.7 PPG. The Heat are one of just three teams in the league (Jazz, Grizzlies) that neither scores nor allows more than 100 PPG.  One of those five games did go to overtime, so that needs to be taken into account.  So too does the fact the Heat shot nearly 60% against Denver Monday night. That won't happen again. Now we won't be seeing a repeat of their last performance vs. Charlotte (0 for 9 from 3pt range!) either, but a streak of seven straight Overs in this Southeast Division rivalry is due to come to an end.  Take the Under. 10* Under Hornets/Heat

8* Minnesota (7:05 ET):  After losing 3-2 (in Ottawa) their last time out, this is a huge game for the Wild, who trail Colorado by one point in the chase for the final playoff spot out West. Note that Minnesota grades out as the better of the two teams mainly due to a +9 goal differential (Avs are -8).  But it's not like Ottawa had been playing well of late and they still were able to beat the Wild on Tuesday (Note: I won w/ the Under!). It was an absolutely brutal loss, by the way, as the Senators tied the game up with only seven seconds remaining in regulation. That cost Minny a point, which is obviously now the difference in the standings between them and Colorado. The Avs won last night (3-1 at Vancouver), so now the ball (or rather puck) is in the Wild's court (or rather rink). They must get the two points here.

The opponent is New Jersey and it's actually the Devils' rink where this one will take place.  But no worries, the Devils have a losing record here and also got blown out in their last game, 7-1 at Anaheim.  For awhile there, the Devils were threatening to earn a playoff spot themselves, but I never bought them as legit contenders mainly because of their extraordinarily low shot totals.  They average only 24.5 per game, easily the lowest number in the league, and to put things in perspective the gap between them and #29 (Arizona) is larger than the gap between #29 and #4! Recently, the number of scoring opportunities has only continued to shrink w/ the Devils averaging just 20.6 shots their L5 games. Therefore, it should not come as any shock to find them averaging just 1.8 goals over the same time frame. Nor should it be a shock that this club ranks dead last in the league in goals per game for the season.

Four times in the last nine games, New Jersey has been beaten by four goals or more. Clearly, that's very, very bad.  So, getting to go against them at this price seems like a real "steal" considering they've been +195 or higher on the money line in five of their last six contests.  Somehow, there were only 35 total shots on goal in the only other meeting between these clubs this season (2-1 win by the Devils), but here I give the goaltending edge to the Wild as Devan Dubnyk is 5-1-1 his L7 starts w/ a 2.10 goals against average while it looks like the Devils will be turning to Keith Kincaid (.879 save percentage L4), not Cory Schneider. 8* Minnesota

8* Yale (2:45 ET): I shouldn't have to tell you that "every year a 12-seed will upset a 5-seed" (well, not last year). Scanning this year's matchups, this to me looks like the most ideal candidate. It's the one with the shortest spread, that's for sure. Also, it's not as if Baylor is immune to being upset. In last year's Tourney, they were beaten by a 14-seed (Georgia State) in their first game and a lot of the weaknesses present there are still present here.  Yale, the Ivy League Champion that didn't have to play a conference tourney, certainly won't be lacking for motivation here as this is their first appearance in the Big Dance since 1962. Despite the lack of Tournament experience, the Bulldogs are an experienced team that has averaged 24 wins per season the last four years. Take the points.

I mentioned earlier that many of the same issues that plagued Baylor last year are likely to cost them again here. For starters, they turn the ball over far too much. We're talking once every 5.3 possessions, a very high rate, which ranks 228th nationally.  They also don't defend the three-point shot particularly well, allowing opponents to shoot 37.1%, which ranks 295th nationally. Again, not good, especially considering Yale comes in shooting at a 37.4% clip behind the arc, not to mention 47.1% overall. Even Baylor's biggest strength, which is rebounding, is somewhat mitigated by the fact that Yale is actually the taller team here (really!) and ranks second in the country in rebounding differential at +11.1 per game.

Yale has a tremendous player, that being Justin Sears, the Ivy League Player of the Year. Sears averaged 15.6 points per game during the regular, despite B2B poor games at the end of the regular season. He should bounce back from that here given Baylor's penchant to allow teams to shoot the ball well. Yale only allows 63.1 PPG and a real key to this game is the fact they like to really slow the tempo down, thereby limiting the total number of possessions.  Slowing the pace is a trait of successful upset bids in the past.  Yale has won 17 of its last 18 games overall, so this is a team that "knows how to win."  They also went 4-0 ATS in neutral court settings. Don't discount the little bit of an advantage the underdog has here by playing in nearby Providence.    8* Yale

8* Anaheim (10:35 ET):  This is - easily - the best matchup on Wednesday's NHL slate, but one that I feel offers a distinct edge to one side nonetheless.  Anaheim was a team I figured would regress this year (was the top seed in the West last year) as 2014-15 saw them experience a great deal of so-called "puck luck" and post an abnormally good record in games decided by one goal.  But, early on, they regressed harder than even I had expected. For much of this year, the offense ranked 30th (last) in the league in scoring and it looked like they would struggle just to make the playoffs even in weak Pacific Division. However, ever since the All-Star Break, something has "clicked" and they are 19-3-2 their L24 games. I'm on them here.

Save for overall goal scoring (where they are now 23rd in the league), the Ducks numbers across the board are very impressive.  They are #2 in goal allowed, #2 on the power play and #1 in penalty killing.  They just destroyed New Jersey Monday night, 7-1, on the heels of three straight losses. Obviously, after going 18-1-1 in a 20-game span, the Ducks were likely to "give some back," but now that they have, I'm willing to start supporting them again. Over their last 10 home games, the team is 9-0-1 w/ a non-shootout goal differential of +19.  Yes, they very likely won't score as many times here as they did in the last game, but considering in 10 of the last 12 games they've allowed two or fewer goals, they should be just fine. Both Frederik Andersen and John Gibson have been red hot of late.

As for the Rangers, they have allowed a total of 18 goals their last five games, a span which has seen them get outshot - on average - 35.6 to 25.4.  That's obviously not good at all.  Overall, the Blueshirts have dropped three of four w/ the one win coming at the expense of lowly Buffalo.  It may not even be Henrik Lundqvist between the pipes for tonight's game. I could make a case that the Rangers are among the most overrated teams in the league right now as advanced stats do not like them one bit. They are 26th in Corsi and 22nd in Fenwick, easily the worst rankings among Eastern Conference contenders. 8* Anaheim

10* Under Jets/Flames (10:05 ET):  Many teams across the league are fighting for playoff positioning right now, but don't count either of these two in that group. Both Calgary and Winnipeg, playoff teams a year ago, have really struggled throughout the campaign and come into this one w/ just 63 points apiece.  Both are also off unusual offensive outbursts in their last game.  The Flames shocked everybody on Monday w/ a 7-4 win over red-hot St. Louis. That same night Winnipeg surprised me (had the other side) w/ a 5-2 win in Vancouver. Yes, both teams are in the bottom five in goals allowed per game. But the offensive numbers are due to come way down tonight and I'll call for a low-scoring game.  Take the Under.

Prior to breaking out for those seven goals on Monday, Calgary had scored only five total its previous three games, all of which took place here on home ice. Monday marked the Flames' highest scoring game of the entire season (that should not come as a shock).  There have been two times this year where they have scored six goals in a game. They followed both of those performances up by scoring just one goal their next time out.  The key to beating the Blues was scoring not just once, but twice, short-handed.  That's obviously something you don't see every game, especially from a Calgary team whose special teams is arguably the worst in the entire league.  Goaltending has been another issue for this club and we'll need Jonas Hiller to "cooperate" here. But I do like the fact that the Flames allow only 27.5 shots per game here at home.

Winnipeg's offense should comply with our need for better Calgary goaltending as the Jets average only 2.5 goals per game on the road. Those five goals they scored Monday in Vancouver marked a single-game high for March, but a very encouraging sign is that this team is 13-2 Under this season after scoring 4+ goals its previous game.  While they haven't met since right before Christmas, these two teams have played twice this season and both games stayed Under the total. Both times saw the losing side score just one goal on 20 shot attempts.  10* Under Jets/Flames

9* Over Avalanche/Canucks (10:05 ET):  Here's a game that I feel will be high-scoring Wednesday night.  The Over is 4-0-1 in Canucks games in March after they gave up five goals to a bad Winnipeg team Monday night.  Here, they host a Colorado team that has gone Under in three straight and is fighting for its playoff life.  Entering tonight, the Avs trail division rival Minnesota by a single point for the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference.  They really need this win, so I don't expect them to play conservatively at all and given the high number of shots we've seen both teams give up not just recently, but all year long, I expect a somewhat wide-open and high scoring affair.  Take the Over here.

Colorado has gone 3-2 its last five games despite allowing a frightening number of shot attempts, 37.0 per game to be precise.  While that is a very high number, the scary thing is that it's not too far above what the Avalanche allow per game for the entire year (32.0), which is the second highest average in the entire league (trailing only Ottawa).  The 30 shots the Avs allowed in defeat Saturday in Winnipeg actually marked their five-game low as before that they'd allowed 40, 40, 38 and 37!  Goalie Semyon Varlamov has been bailing them out somewhat lately, but let us not forget that he has a 5.13 goals against average his last four starts out on the road.

Vancouver gives up the third highest number of shot attempts per game (31.6) in the league this year.  Monday's loss marked the second time in four games they allowed five goals. So, the Colorado offense should definitely get on track here.  Ryan Miller was not in goal vs. Winnipeg, but should return here and had posted a subpar 3.35 GAA across four starts before a win over Nashville last week.  Vancouver home games have seen the Over go 10-3 provided the total is 5.0.   The team is also 9-5 Over this year when off a loss by two or more goals.  9* Over Avalanche/Canucks

8* LA Clippers (9:35 ET):  This line simply looks way off to me as my own personal power ratings have the Clippers favored by three in this matchup.  I often stress the value that can be found on teams playing in the second game of a back to back, especially if they're on the road, and that's the case here w/ the Clips after they lost in San Antonio last night (no real shame there).  Meanwhile, Houston (who has been overvalued much of this season) comes into this one even more overvalued than usual after posting a 49-point beatdown of undermanned Memphis Monday night.  Thus, each team's previous result could not serve as a better set up to this one as the wrong team is now favored. Take the points.

So, LA is coming off B2B 20+ point losses, first to Cleveland and then to the Spurs.  Note that in their first 64 games, they did not suffer a single loss by 20 or more.  Also note that their last two opponents are among the top four teams in the entire league.  Against Cleveland, they fell victim to 18 made three-pointers by the Cavaliers while shooting just 40.5% from the floor themselves. Last night in San Antonio, the final score was a bit misleading in the sense that it was just a one-point game heading into the fourth quarter. Going from Cleveland-San Antonio to Houston is a drop in class for Doc Rivers' team and one that the should be able to handle. Certainly, we should see an increase in production from the Clippers offense against a Rockets defense that can't stop a nosebleed.

After a five-game East Coast swing, Houston returned home to find a depleted Memphis squad and took advantage by shooting a lights out 54.1% against the Grizzlies (who were at just 29.7% themselves). Those kind of performances simply haven't happened much for the Rockets this year as they have toiled in mediocrity w/ a negative YTD point differential due to a defense that allows a ghastly 106.6 points per game.  Monday marked just the second time all season that they allowed fewer than 85 points.  The last time they played the Clippers, they gave up 140, albeit that game went to overtime. Hopefully, Paul Pierce plays tonight for the Clips, but even if he doesn't I'm expecting increased production from team's bench.  8* LA Clippers

10* Tulsa (9:10 ET):  Tulsa is being "written off" as the team least deserving of a bid, but it's not as if Michigan has an extra leg to stand on. In fact, these teams had two common opponents during the regular season - SMU and UConn - and while Tulsa holds a win over both, Michigan went 0-2. Of course, Wolverines' fans may cry "not fair" because Tulsa got two cracks each at those two teams (conference opponents), but still, the Maize and Blue lost those games badly. Both were double digit losses w/ Michigan losing by a combined 38 points.  Yet they appear to be the overwhelming favorite here, not necessarily in terms of the line, but rather the ticket count. I think writing off Tulsa is a mistake and give them a great shot at pulling the outright upset. Take the points.

The last time we saw Tulsa they were suffering a bad loss to Memphis, 89-67, as five-point chalk.  In the interest of "full disclosure," I was on them there and I think the nature of the defeat is what has the majority of bettors flocking to the other side here.  But lest we forget, the Golden Hurricane are an experienced group, one that starts four seniors and a junior.  The three-point shot, which can be such an ally this time of year, betrayed them in the Memphis game as they went just 4 of 15 from behind the arc.  Note that Michigan has allowed its opponents to shoot 46.4% outside of Ann Arbor this season.  Not only did Tulsa beat SMU and UConn during the regular season, but they also have wins over Cincinnati and Temple, two other Tourney teams from the American, plus they beat Iona and Wichita State early in the season.

Michigan, remember, is playing w/o its best player, Caris LaVert.  After they lost to Purdue in the manner that they did, I was a little surprised to see the Wolverines included in the field of 68. Their two wins in the Big 10 Tournament were quite fortunate as both came via last second shots (one in overtime) and the combined margin of victory was just five points. During the regular season, they had just three wins over Tourney teams.  A concern I have with this team is that it ranks 326nd nationally in rebounding. They've also averaged just 64.2 points over their L5 games. 10* Tulsa

8* Bucknell (7:30 ET):  I'm really liking what I see here. I can only imagine that the vast majority of the betting public is going to want to "get down" on Monmouth (a 1-seed here in the NIT), who is believed by many to be the NCAA Tournament's biggest "snub."  However, let's return to yday's discussion of motivation or lack there of.  The key to handicapping the NIT, and why I've been so successful through the years, is assessing each team's level of motivation coming into the event. Like St. Mary's, who struggled to win on Tuesday, I anticipate less than "peak Monmouth" here as the players still have to be disappointed from not getting invited to the Big Dance. Take the points.

Bucknell, like Monmouth, is an automatic qualifier for the NIT due to being the regular season champ of their conference. That conference happens to be the Patriot League and during a week where we saw numerous top seeds go down, the Bison's early exit from their conference tourney had to rank right up there w/ the most shocking.  Playing in their home arena, they lost to 8-seed Holy Cross, who of course would go on to make an improbable run and take the Patriot League's automatic bid.  Bucknell was a 13.5-pt favorite in that loss and shot just 33.8 percent. Note that upset seems like "forever ago" (13 days!), so the Bison players are likely "chomping at the bit" to get back out on the court.

Unlike Bucknell, Monmouth had to wait all the way until Sunday to find out their NCAA Tournament fate and as we know that wait ended up in disappointment. This team attracts a lot of attention for the silly antics of its bench players and while the 13 non-conf road games it played are nice, they lost to the likes of Army, Canisius and Manhattan, all of whom Vegas ranks outside the top 200. I was not surprised to see the Hawks lose in the MAAC Final, nor was Vegas, as Iona actually closed as the favorite for that game. It's interesting that this line hasn't moved at all despite the high ticket count (so far) on the favorite. Monmouth is ripe to be upset. 8* Bucknell

8* Boston (7:05 ET): Hey! Here's a bit of a surprise. Last night, I played AGAINST Boston as they fell in Indiana, 103-98 as 2.5-pt dogs. It was the Celtics' second straight loss and dropped them to 1-4 ATS their last five games overall. However, if you're a regular client or just familiar with my usual handicapping strategy, then you really shouldn't be surprised to see me "zigging" and "zagging" with the guys in green at all.  Especially since on the other side we have an Oklahoma City team that's clearly overvalued coming in due to a 34-point bea tdown they laid on Portland Monday night. Remember that the Thunder have been the worst ATS team in the league for basically the entire duration of the season (currently 26-38-3).  My own personal power ratings have this game as basically a pick 'em. Take the points.

It's not as if the Celtics were blown out in either of the last two games. Last Friday, as a 4.5-pt home favorite, they fell to the Rockets by only four points. That snapped a 14-game home win streak, by the way.  Yesterday, they were on the road against perhaps a more desperate Indiana team and it was close throughout, ending up at a five-point margin. While some (and I actually did label this as a key going into the game) will point to the absence of Jae Crowder last night, the bottom line is the Celtics have shot below 40% in the B2B losses. I think we should see the offense bounce back here at home where it averages an impressive 106.3 PPG.  Also, remember what I said in yday's analysis about Boston being a great bet when playing w/o rest? Under Brad Stevens, they are a league-best 36-16 ATS in the second game of back to backs!

This is an interesting matchup in the sense that it is the league's second most efficient offense (OKC) vs. the third most efficient defense (Boston).  I understand that the Celtics won't have Crowder again, but they'll instead benefit from some plan old regression on the Thunder side as no way does OKC match its last performance where they shot almost 60% from the floor and scored 128 points. Note that OKC is just 7-17 ATS this season following a double digit win. Also, the Celtics seem to be at their best when the oddsmakers call for a high-scoring game as they are on a 25-10 ATS run when the total is 210 points or higher. 8* Boston

10* Vanderbilt (9:10 ET):  I think that the general consensus is that the winner of this game is a strong candidate to carry on the tradition of "first four" teams winning multiple NCAA Tournament games. Certainly, the six seed (Arizona) can't be too happy about drawing either Vanderbilt or Wichita State in the Round of 64. As for the game itself, I actually rate Vandy as the better team on a neutral floor, which is where this game is taking place (Dayton), so taking points is a strong value. Wichita State may have rolled through the Missouri Valley this year, but this is not a conference game.  The Shockers were upset by Northern Iowa in the conference tourney and are just 4-6 ATS in non-conference games. Take the points.

Vandy was a really frustrating team during the regular season and losing in the SEC Tournament to Tennessee was somewhat emblematic of their entire campaign so far. But still, it was only a two-point loss for the Commodores and close losses were somewhat common for this team. They had six by five points or less, which tells me that the record easily could have been a lot better. Most will call Wichita State the better defensive team in this matchup, and deservedly so, but the Commies allowed just one point per possession in SEC play despite not forcing many turnovers. In many ways, that's just as impressive as what WSU did to a weak MVC.

While many are surprised to see Wichita State here (placed in a 'play in' game), note that Vandy was a preseason top 20 team as well and just as potentially dangerous down the line.  The Commies closed the regular season on an 11-5 run and I see three-point shooting largely determining the outcome of this ball game. Vandy is not only prolific at shooting from behind the arc, but also is third in the country in 3-pt FG% defense.  As a matter of fact, Vandy ranks 8th nationally in overall field goal percentage defense!  If I'm Wichita State, I'd be a bit worried that their best basketball could be "behind them" as they scored only 52 points in the loss to Northern Iowa and also struggled to beat Loyola IL the previous day.  I love Vandy's "inside-outside" game offensively and feel Wichita State will struggle to defend in this one.  Also, the Commodores' size (two 7-footers) should give the Shockers plenty of trouble. 10* Vanderbilt

8* Long Beach State (9:00 ET): Spoiler alert: I'm not forecasting a strong showing by the Pac 12 in the NCAA Tournament, so it stands to reason that Washington is similarly overvalued coming into this year's NIT. The Huskies first opponent is Long Beach State and while this one takes place up in Seattle, I foresee a very tight game throughout. LBSU came very close to knocking off top seeded Hawaii in the Big West Championship Game (lost by 4) and has really "cleaned up" in the underdog role this season, going 11-5 against the spread. Meanwhile, Washington is a team that has dropped seven of its last 10 contests and I see them being the less interested if the two teams here. Take the points.

Washington, who prefers an up-tempo style, had to be disappointed that they got Oregon to play at their pace and yet still came up short in the Pac 12 quarterfinals.  Though here at home they are holding opponents to just 40.3% shooting from the field, those same teams are averaging 76.6 points per game. One way to win if you're an underdog this time of year is the three-point shot and LBSU happens to be 37.6% from behind the arc this season.  The Huskies have allowed over 80 points in four of their last five contests.  With LBSU just having nearly pulled an upset over the top team in its league, despite shooting only 37.3 percent for the game, they have to be feeling pretty confident here. HC Dan Monson always challenges his team w/ a tough non-conference slate and considering the 49ers finished that portion of the schedule 8-3 ATS despite playing the likes of Seton Hall, Virginia, Oregon, Arizona and Duke, suffice to say they will not be intimidated here.

Both of these teams tend to give up points in bunches, but LBSU is off one of its better defensive efforts as they held Hawaii to just 64 pts in the Big West Championship Game. Consider that the 49ers twice beat Hawaii (Big West reg season champ) in the regular season too.  But I have to go back to the three-point shot as the 49ers set a school record w/ 279 made this season and I anticipate they'll get their fair share of good looks tonight.  As a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 pts this season, LBSU is a perfect 3-0 ATS. 8* Long Beach State

10* Over Sixers/Nets (7:35 ET): As the season winds down, one has to figure that defense will become even less of a priority for these two teams, neither of whom is any good at that end of the floor to begin with.  Now the two did just meet and it was a 95-89 win for Philadelphia, at home, which was their second over Brooklyn this season.  The streak that caught my eye here, however, is that the last seven matchups have all stayed Under the total. That figures to change here as not only is scoring way up in Nets' games lately, but Philly is coming off a 125-111 home loss to Detroit that sailed past the total. Overall, six of the Sixers' last eight games have gone Over. With both teams allowing over 109 PPG their last five contests, the scoreboard operator should be busy in this one. Take the Over.

Since the All-Star Break, Philly has played 13 games. Only one of them has seen them hold the opponent below 100 points. That was Friday's home game vs. the Nets.  While that continued the Under trend we've seen between the two, the fact is the Sixers have allowed 116 or more points eight times since the Break.  That's beyond awful.  Opponents have averaged 107.3 PPG against the Sixers this year. Detroit scored 125 on them Saturday thanks to 53.4 percent shooting.  Only five teams in the entire league have gone Over at a higher rate than Philadelphia, who plays at the league's sixth fastest pace. 

Brooklyn, in many ways, is worse than Philly defensively. They are 28th in efficiency, giving up 107.1 points per 100 possessions. Teams shoot better than 47% from the floor against them and 37.1% from three-point range here at the Barclays Center. Overall, the Nets yield 104.3 PPG and Milwaukee just shot better than 50 percent on Sunday en route to a 109-100 final score in the Bucks' favor. On Friday, it certainly appeared as if these teams could be heading for an Over as it was a 53-45 game at halftime.  But scoring then slowed dramatically in the second half. I predict that we'll see better than 14 of 45 overall three-point shooting in this one. The Nets are 16-9 Over vs. teams with a losing record this season.  The Over is also 20-14 in all of their home games.  I just can't imagine much defense being played in this one. 10* Over Sixers/Nets

10* Under Wild/Senators (7:35 ET):  With both of these teams on the edge of playoff contention in their respective conferences, I'm expecting a tight game that is owned by the goaltenders. Both are coming off four-goal efforts to begin with, so a decline in offensive numbers is to expected anyway. Minnesota, currently tied (w/ Colorado) for the final Wild Card out West, has won three straight on the road including Saturday's 4-1 decision at Montreal.  Ottawa, more on the fringes of contention (seven points back) in the East, delivered a 4-0 shutout in its last game, which came against lowly Toronto. Though the Sens' YTD numbers seem more conducive to playing the Over, the Under has actually shown a profit for them at home and is 4-2 their last six games overall. Take the Under here.

Minnesota, is more of an Under team as they rank in the top 10 for fewest goals allowed, but only 18th in goals per game.  Though they should be credited for pulling off the win in Montreal over the weekend, note they were able to score four times despite only 22 shots on goal. That's a pretty unsustainable ratio as far as I'm concerned.  While it's true that Ottawa does allow a ton of shots (most in the league), the Wild also happen to be 17-8 Under this year when matched up with a team that has a losing record. We also know that we can count on goalie Devan Dubnyk, who in his last three road starts has posted a 1.30 goals against average and .953 save percentage. In two career starts vs. Ottawa, Dubnyk has a 1.44 GAA and .957 save percentage.

I mentioned earlier that despite Ottawa's numbers for the year, the Under has actually shown a profit when they're at home. That includes a 16-10 mark when the total is 5.5, which is where it opened here, so again it looks as if that half goal is providing us w/ some value. Before facing Toronto, the Senators had not scored more than three goals in six consecutive games.  One area that we should not have to worry about here is the Sens' awful power play, which is 0 for its last 14 and is just 23rd in the league. Meanwhile ,goalie Craig Anderson should come in w/ some confidence after posting the shut out vs. Toronto. 10* Under Wild/Senators

6* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET):  It's quite the opposite directions that these two Atlantic Division clubs have been trending in of late, so the fact that the Leafs are off win only makes it more tempting to go against them here as the red-hot Lightning come to town. Now Tampa Bay, who is embroiled in a three-horse race for the division lead, had dropped three in a row before Sunday's 4-0 shutout of Columbus. But before that they'd won nine straight, seven of those coming in regulation.  One was a 2-1 win here in Toronto as they improved to 3-0 this season vs. the Maple Leafs. Simply put, given the race that they're involved in, the Lightning cannot afford to drop a game like this. The juice is high, but w/ Toronto off a rare win, they're prime fade material.

Just one point separates first from third in the Atlantic and right now the Lightning are tied w/ Florida, one point back of Boston. Over their last four games, Tampa Bay has alternated games w/ high and low shot totals and while they had 37 their last game, the trend should discontinue here as Toronto is still allowing more than 30 per game over the course of the season. As I've discussed in other recent analysis for TB games, their offense has come on strong in the second half and now ranks in the top ten in goals per game, which is where we all figured it would be prior to the start of the season. But the strength of this team is still its goaltending as they've allowed the third fewest goals per game average in the league. 

The last two times these teams have played, Toronto has scored just one goal total. Consider they have yet to face Ben Bishop this year and the Lightning netminder has a .941 save percentage his L4 starts after Sunday's shutout of the Blue Jackets.  Toronto has scored just one goal in its last two games overall and that was last time out, a 1-0 win over Detroit (I had the Under!), a game they happened to be outshot 38-27. I don't see them being that fortunate again as not only have division games gone terribly for the Leafs this season (2-19!), but they last posted B2B wins in early February. Meanwhile, the Lightning are a perfect 4-0 off a shutout win this season. 6* Tampa Bay

8* Indiana (7:05 ET):  Both the Pacers and Celtics will be looking to bounce back from losses their last times out. Boston, as a 4.5-point favorite, fell outright at home to Houston, which is rather embarrassing. But more embarrassing is what happened to Indiana - a 29-point loss at Atlanta on Sunday. That came on the heels of three consecutive SU wins as a dog, so previously the Pacers had been beating the oddsmakers projections, most notably a 99-91 upset of San Antonio in their most recent home game. The Celtics, who have been off since Friday, are just a .500 team on the road and have dropped two of three so far this year against Indiana. That has me on the home side, laying a short number here, as they are a perfect 2-0 ATS this year laying three points or less at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.

It was the second game of a back to back and off a win, you might figure that the Pacers would be due for an off-night Saturday. But things quickly went awry in Atlanta and the team ended up scoring a season-low 75 points on just 37.9% shooting (5 of 24 from three-point range). Not to mention, they were only 4 of 7 from the free-throw line!  Paul George was just 3 of 15 from the field and finished w/ only seven points, well below his season average. Needless to say, we will see an increase in offensive output here from George and the Pacers now that they return home where they average a healthy 102.7 points per game. They also don't figure to end up on the wrong end of a 20-0 run again. Indiana has done really well in conference games this year, going 25-14 ATS. They are also 9-2 ATS on exactly two days rest.

Boston will be w/o a key defender for this one, that being Jae Crowder. That should allow George to have a big game. Offensively, the Celtics had been on fire since the All-Star Break, but them failing to break 100 against the woeful Rockets had to be a disappointment. With a big home game looming vs. Oklahoma City tomorrow night, don't be surprised if Boston gets caught "peeking ahead."  One of the more interesting tidbits with the Celtics under Brad Stevens is how much better they've been (ATS) when on no rest compared to rested. In the L3 years, they have been the best team in the league w/o rest at the betting window. Otherwise, they are basically a 50/50 proposition. This one goes to the home team. 8* Indiana

10* Ohio State (7:00 ET):  In handicapping the NIT, assessing individual teams' respective level of motivation is key. Now, normally, when we think of an unmotivated team, a disinterested favorite comes to mind. But keep in mind that (this year especially) there are a number of "mid major" schools who had aspirations of playing in the Big Dance that did not come to pass. One such squad is Akron, regular season champs out of the MAC. The 26-8 Zips were upset in the Final of their Conference Tourney, losing to Buffalo on a last second three-pointer. I feel that it is going to be very difficult for the players to get over that, especially considering the loss took place just four days ago. On the road, against a school from a "Power Conference," is not a good situation for the Zips at all. Lay the small number.

Ohio State had an ugly end to its Big 10 Tourney run as they had the misfortune of running into Michigan State. The final result there was 81-54 Sparty, the third time that the Buckeyes had lost to Tom Izzo's team over a three-week span. But Michigan State is actually the ONLY team to beat Ohio State since February 9th as the Buckeyes have won six of nine.  Granted, this was not Thad Matta's best team this year, but OSU still went 14-5 SU at home, holding visitors to an average of just 62.5 points per game. Something to consider is that this is Akron's first "true" road game since Feb 23rd when they lost outright at lowly Miami (OH). In fact, the Zips have lost three straight "true" road games.

Akron is likely to "live and die" by the three-point shot in this one and while OSU has been prone to letting teams shoot well from behind the arc, I'm just not convinced that the three-point shot alone can carry the Zips here. What I find to be more interesting is that Akron got away w/ its opponents (a much weaker schedule than OSU, obviously) shooting only 29.5% from three-point range, one of the lowest percentages in the entire country.  While it is tempting to take the "little guy" in this matchup of in-state foes, beware of the fact that Akron is probably far less interested to "be here" than is Ohio State. This is really a small number for the Buckeyes to be laying on their home court. 10* Ohio State

10* Vancouver (10:05 ET): Though it's "all over but the shouting" for the Canucks, they have come on strong of late, including a nice win for me over Nashville Saturday night. (I actually took them on the Puck Line). It was their third win in the last four games and while they still are eight points out of the Wild Card chase, they certainly appear to have some winnable games upcoming. It starts by welcoming in last place Winnipeg.  The Jets also won Saturday, 3-2 over Colorado, but that was just their third win in the last 13 games overall. Did you know that this team has just one three-game win streak all season?? One would have to go back more than a month to find the last time they won B2B games. Go with the Canucks here.

Vancouver probably should have a better record/more points. They have suffered 12 losses beyond regulation, second most in the league. No team has been worse when leading after two periods as their record in such situations is only 15-4-7.   Goaltender Ryan Miller has a .921 save percentage at home. Now there still are some concerns, namely the fact the team has been outshot in four consecutive games.  But nevertheless, I like this matchup for them. The Canucks have won seven of nine at home against the Jets. They have revenge for a 4-1 loss in Manitoba.  The Jets are allowing 32.4 shots per game their last five contests.

Vancouver's home record is surprisingly bad (13-16-5), but Winnipeg's road record is predictably bad (13-18-3).   Across the board, the Jets are pretty bad: 21st in goals per game, 26th in goals allowed, 28th on the power play and 25th on the penalty kill.  Earlier, I mentioned Vancouver's disappointing record when leading after two periods. Well, Winnipeg is 1-25-3 when trailing after two periods. That one win came their last time out, at home against Colorado.  Goaltending has been a bit of a concern here all season. For likely starter Ondrej Pavalec, his struggles have come out on the road as he owns a poor .895 save percentage there. Speaking of struggles on the road, the Jets have not won here in Vancouver since '04 when they were known as the Atlanta Thrashers. 10* Vancouver

8* Nashville (9:05 ET):  I just played against the Predators in their last game.  I actually took the puck line w/ Vancouver and turns out that I didn't even need the +1.5 as the Canucks took the game outright, 4-2.  For the Preds, it was their second straight defeat. Now in my analysis for the game, I made mention of the potential for complacency to set it now that they are seven points clear of the only two other teams competing for the two Wild Card spots. Strange as it may seem, that one loss has somewhat caused me to have a "change of heart" as I certainly don't think the Preds are going to be willing to go 0-3 on this trek through Western Canada. Fortunately, things wrap up here in Edmonton, where they'll find the team tied for the fewest points in the Western Conference. Take Nashville here.

Edmonton just got shut out Saturday night, 4-0 here at home by lowly Arizona.  That makes it two straight home games that they've been shut out as San Jose got them 3-0 back on Tuesday. In between, they did manage to sneak out a 2-1 victory over Minnesota (thereby giving Nashville some help). Even with all the fanfare surrounding Connor McDavid, this remains a poor team, one that ranks 28th in goals per game and 25th in goals allowed. They are bottom eight in both Corsi and Fenwick as well.  With their season winding down and little to play for, it is pretty difficult to endorse the Oilers at this point. They are 8-15 SU after scoring 1 goal or less their last game and 10-16 SU after allowing four or more.

Nashville is 2-0 already this season vs. Edmonton. They've allowed just one goal in those two wins. Pekka Rinne was in goal for both of those games and likely will be again here. He had been incredibly sharp during the team's 14-game point streak.  I'm willing to write off Saturday's "slip-up" as just that. Consider that one of the four goals allowed was an empty-netter.  Rinne has allowed just one goal total the last three times he has started against the Oilers, stopping 91 of 92 shots.  This is a team that ranks 7th in Corsi and 2nd in Fenwick. They are better than Edmonton in every conceivable way. They show that Monday night.  8* Nashville

10* Dallas (7:05 ET):  There is no denying the vastly different directions these two teams have been trending in recently. Charlotte, who I've defended much of this year, has been on fire. They are not just 7-0 straight up (6-1 against the spread) in March, but 15-3 SU (13-5 ATS) their L18 games overall.  That's the longest active win streak in the league and as a result the Hornets are up to fifth in the East.  As for Dallas, well, they are 0-5 SU and ATS their last five overall and that has them down in eighth over in the West. I refuse to accept that the Mavs are this bad, in fact, they've actually been competitive in every game during this losing streak of theirs. The line looks just a little bit high to me here and as a result, I'm taking the points.

Twice this season, we have seen the Mavs close as road underdogs of 6.5 to 9 points. Both times they not only covered, but also took the game straight up.  It is interesting that they have been favored in eight of the last 10 games, including four of five during this losing streak, which has seen them fall by seven points or less in all of those.  Saturday saw them 112-105 at home to Indiana. The Pacers were 27 of 29 from the free-throw line, which was very key, especially in what was a one-point game multiple times in the fourth quarter. Not only is this Dallas' longest losing streak of this season, it is the league's longest active losing streak.  Simply put, this is "must win" territory for Rick Carlisle's team, who has upcoming games vs. Cleveland, Golden State and Portland. 

The Mavericks have won 19 of 22 all-time meetings w/ the Hornets. One of those three losses took place very early this season, 108-94 as 3.5-point favorites. Dallas didn't shoot well (39%), but Charlotte did (49.4%) and lately we have seen the Hornets' offensive numbers continue to exceed YTD levels. During the seven-game win streak, they are averaging 118 points per game (43.1% 3-pt shooting). For the season, they average only 103.3 PPG. Eventually, they are going to have to start regressing back to that average. One more win and they would match the franchise's longest win streak this century. Another loss for Dallas and they are under .500 for the first time since November 10th. Hopefully, you can see where I'm going with this one as the "law of averages" dictates taking the points, if not expecting an outright win entirely. 10* Dallas

10* New York (9:05 ET):  Recently, I've had a good pulse on when to take the Knicks. Last Saturday, they were a generous seven-point dog (at home) against the Pistons and came through with a big 102-89 upset.  The result was even better on Wednesday as they dismantled Phoenix, on the road, 128-97 in game where the public had bet them to the role of underdog.  Now, HC Kurt Rambis' tenure hasn't gone particularly well and the team did lose Friday on the road to the Clippers, 101-94 (but left w/ the cash as 10.5-pt dogs). But getting to stay in LA and dropping in class to play the Lakers should be to their liking. The Lakers still are getting too much residual credit for that shocking upset of the Warriors last Sunday. Lay the short number.

I certainly don't have much regard for this Lakers team and in fact have had them right at the bottom of my own personal power ratings for much of the season, even below Philadelphia.  Right now, the two are neck and neck. Whereas Philly's problem lies on the offensive end, the Lakers issue clearly is defense, or a lack of it. All season long, they have been dead last in terms of efficiency and currently they allow 109.2 points per 100 possessions.  They allow 107.1 per game and just gave up 120 in Thursday's loss to Cleveland, falling behind by as many as 17 in the fourth quarter. Of course, offense is also an issue with this team as they also rank dead last in the league in terms of "true" shooting. After watching Kobe Bryant, the league's worst jump shooter by far, go 11 for 16 the last game, suffice to say he won't be repeating that performance again.

The Knicks just had their way w/ another bad defensive team (Phoenix) the other night, so I look for the offense to come alive here after shooting just 41 percent against the Clippers, who had too much offensive might of their own for NY to compete.  But one bright spot for the Knicks there was the play of Kristaps Porzingis, who went for 23 points Friday. The Knicks did down the Lakers, 99-95, earlier in the year.  That was despite shooting less than 40% from the floor. They are 5-1 ATS this season on the road if the total is between 205 and 209.5. 10* New York

9* Under Maple Leafs/Red Wings (7:35 ET): I just played against Toronto last night and that worked out well as they were shut out in Ottawa, 4-0. It was their 10th loss in the last 12 games. While I'd love to come back and again play against them here, fact is I'm not in love w/ tonight's opponent. That would be Detroit, who is admittedly off B2B wins and trying to hold on to a Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. They too played Saturday (beat the Rangers 3-2) and seeing as both teams are w/o rest, I think predicting the SU winner here is a crapshoot. Instead, I turn to the total as the Under has come in 8 of the last 10 times these teams have met. Toronto ranks 29th in the league in goals per game and last place on the power play, so I know they'll comply here. Meanwhile, the Red Wings have gone six straight games w/o scoring more than three goals. Take the Under.

Playing on back to back days certainly has not gone well for the Leafs as they are 1-12 and the Under happens to be 10-2-1 in those games! In this particular instance, they are coming off a shutout loss and as I had made mention of earlier, goals have been hard to come by for this club this season. They've scored two goals or less in six of the last eight games. In Division games, which have seen Leafs come out on the losing end 19 out of 20 times, they average only 1.7 goals this season. Now the goaltending situation will need to comply for this game to go Under. Despite all the losing that's taken place recently, one thing that I like is that Toronto is allowing an average of only 24.8 shots per game its last five contests. When facing that few shots, your goalie should be able to turn in a quality performance.  Jonathan Bernier does have a .938 career save percentage vs. the Wings. 

The last four times that Detroit has hosted Toronto, the Under has cashed. That includes a 4-0 shutout all the way back in October. One month later, they also won up in Toronto by a score of 2-1. The Red Wings have also done a good job of limiting the number of shot attempts by their opponents recently, giving up just 50 the L2 games.  Goalie Petr Mrazek has a .945 save percentage in two career starts vs. the Leafs. Also, the Under is 5-1 for Detroit, at home, when the total is 5.5.  9* Under Maple Leafs/Red Wings

8* LA Clippers (3:30 ET): The Cavs are 2-0 on the current road trip, but by no means has it been easy. First, they were tooth and nail with the lowly Kings all the way into the fourth quarter (trailed 60-54 at halftime) on Wednesday. The following night, in LA, I took them and it took awhile to shake the sorry Lakers. Eventually, they won 120-108 as a 9.5-point choice. But after being fortunate enough to play the two worst defensive teams in the league, back to back, Cleveland will find things much more challenging here as they stay in Los Angeles to take on the Clippers. My own personal power rating disagree w/ them being favored in this spot as the difference between the two is fairly negligible.  Take the points.

The Clippers are off a win, 101-94 over the Knicks. But they did not take the cash as they were favored by 10.5 in that spot. At halftime of that game, it certainly appeared as if they would cover as they held a double digit lead thanks to shooting 51.2 percent. But a 15-point third quarter changed all that.  All five starters did score in double figures, but the problem was a bench that ran just four deep and added just 20 points. Taking points at home is rare for the Clips though. This will be just the seventh time it's happened this season and they are 4-2 against the spread. Overall, they are 22-11 SU at the Staples Center this season, outscoring opponents by 6.2 points per game. They are also a strong 20-7 SU vs. the Eastern Conference.

These teams met in Cleveland in late January and the Cavs prevailed 115-102 as 6.5-point favorites. One key was Cleveland going 13 of 27 from three-point range compared to just 6 of 25 for the Clippers.  For the record, these two teams average the same # of three-pointers made per game (10) for the year and the Clips have a slightly better percentage. Los Angeles also did themselves no favors by missing 12 of 36 free throws back in Cleveland.  I don't imagine we'll be seeing such lopsided shooting percentages in the Cavs' favor this afternoon and you have to remember this team has not been very good at the betting window all year, including 24-32 ATS as a favorite (they are one of just three East Conf teams below 50% ATS overall!).  I just don't agree with the road team being favored here. 8* LA Clippers

8* Under Purdue/Michigan State (3:00 ET):  For the first time since January 20th, Michigan State failed to cover on Saturday, only beating Maryland 64-61 in the Big 10 semis. I'll call for another streak to come to an end here, that being Sparty's streak of going Over seven straight times vs. Purdue. I ran through my rationale for playing Unders in the semis and beyond in these various conference tourneys in the Kentucky-A&M analysis and I sure wish I would have taken my own advice in the two Big 10 semis, both of which stayed Under the total. I already mentioned MSU beating Maryland 64-61 and earlier in the day Purdue took care of business against Michigan, winning 76-59. Like that Kentucky-Texas A&M matchup in the SEC, the one regular season game these two teams played went Over only because of overtime. Take the Under here.

Michigan State is probably gunning for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but Purdue will certainly be a formidable opponent. The Boilermakers have won both of their Tourney games by double digits, first crushing Illinois 89-58 before handling what was a desperate Michigan team yday afternoon.  That's an average of just 58.5 points allowed in the two games and for the season the team is allowing fewer than 65 points per game. In four neutral court games, they are allowing just under 60 PPG.  The edition of Michigan State is a lot more prolific from three-point range than previous ones, but the Boilers are holding teams to just 29% shooting from behind the arc (even lower in their two tourney games!), which is a real key.

Now Purdue has been shooting the lights out recently.  Yesterday marked their sixth consecutive game at better than 51 percent from the field and the first five all went Over the total. But for evidence of Michigan State's defensive prowess (like you even need any), look no further than yday's performance against Maryland, who was just one day removed from scoring a Big 10 Tournament record 97 points. Tom Izzo's defense held the Terps to 15 points below their overall season average and it was a similar strong effort Friday vs. Ohio State, who scored only 54 points. The two opponents have shot just 27.3 percent from three-point range. 8* Under Purdue/Michigan State

10* Arkansas Little Rock (1:00 ET):  These were the top two teams in the Sun Belt during the regular season and the tournament format clearly favored them w/ the double byes into the semifinals. Both Arkansas Little Rock and (much to my chagrin) LA Monroe won comfortably on Saturday as the former downed LA Lafayette 72-65 while the latter took care of UT Arlington 81-72.  Both covered the respective spreads.  Covering the spread is something LA Monroe has done quite a bit in the past vs. today's counterpart (6-0 ATS L6), but I look for that trend to come to an end Sunday for this potential "bid thief" as the top seed (only four SU losses) is just too strong this year and will move on w/ relative ease to the NCAA Tournament.

It was two close games during the regular season between these two w/ the home team winning both.  However, LA Monroe was a big 11-pt dog at Little Rock when they lost 58-57 on January 9th. One month later, they pulled a minor upset (were +2), beating the Trojans 86-82. That was one of just three Sun Belt losses for ALR, who outscored conference foes by a dominating 9.4 points per game this year. Had the Trojans not dropped a meaningless regular season finale (at Appalachian State), they would have finished as the only three-loss team in the country.  Yet, given all the upsets we've seen over the past week, I'm not convinced they will make the NCAA Tournament though if they were to fall here. This is not like the UConn-Memphis game in the American where one team knows it is safely in while the other must win.  ALR will absolutely "show up" ready to go.

I went against LA Monroe yday and was clearly disappointed at the result there. Early on, things looked great from my perspective. UT Arlington actually raced out to a 12-0 lead, but from there it was all Warhawks.  The keys were ULM shooting 13 of 27 from three-point range and getting a career-high 21 points from DeMondre Harvey.  Note that for the year, Arkansas Little Rock holds teams to just 59.8 PPG and 30.8% shooting from three-point range. The current win streak of 10 games is the longest for ULM in 22 seasons, but it comes to an end here.  10* Arkansas Little Rock

10* Under Kentucky/Texas A&M (1:00 ET):  Throughout the conference tournaments, we've been targeting Unders in the late rounds (semis/finals) as it only seems logical that the more times a team has to play in a short period of time, the more likely the respective offenses are to be adversly affected. Also, in the vast majority of these tournaments, there is no home court advantage as both sides are playing at a relatively unfamiliar site. Finally, given the stakes involved, we are less likely to have a wide open game.  For Sunday's SEC Championship, I am on the Under as Texas A&M really showed me something yesterday by holding LSU to just 38 points. It won't be that easy here against Kentucky, but then again the Wildcats are due for a decline in shooting from yday anyway.

These teams met just once during the regular season. The game, won 79-77 by A&M at home, did go Over the total, but that was only because of overtime. It was tied at 68 at the end of regulation.  In doing my research for this matchup, I was shocked to find that was the third time in the last four meetings these teams have gone to OT.  The total was much lower (119.5) in LY's meeting in College Station, but was actually only 53-53 at the end of regulation and ended up going to double overtime (UK won 70-64).  The 2014 meeting in College Station (which had a O/U line of 128.5) was a 62-62 game at the end of regulation before UK came through with a 72-68 victory.  So clearly, Under bettors have gotten a "raw deal" in this rivalry. Hopefully, we avoid overtime here, because if we do, then I see this one staying well below the number.

Now, Kentucky (who is favored here) did just score 93 points yday in a wild semifinal win over Georgia (trailed much of the game). That was the fourth straight UK game to go Over. But they shot 56 percent in the second half and clearly they're not going to be able to do that here against a Texas A&M team that just got done completely bottling up Ben Simmons and LSU, who barely shot 20 percent and turned in the lowest scoring game by any major conference team this season.  For the season, the Aggies allow just 65.9 PPG and I don't see them allowing 10 made three-pointers again here like they did in the regular season matchup w/ UK.  At the same time, Kentucky's defense (67.6 PPG allowed for the season) should be dramatically better here than it was in the first half yday when they allowed Georgia to shoot better than 60 percent, including six made three-pointers.  10* Under Kentucky/Texas A&M

5* Puck Line Vancouver (10:05 ET):  Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Canucks +1.5.   Nashville had come on strong of late, winning seven of eight, but that was before Wednesday's 3-2 loss in Calgary. Of their last nine games, five have been decided by exactly one goal. One that was not is a game I still remember, that being a 4-2 victory over Winnipeg on Tuesday where they really pulled a rabbit out of their hat w/ three third period goals. (I had Under 5.5).  After a run like the one we've seen the Preds get on, the natural inclination is for the team to "slip up" a little and that's what I'll call for here as, at home, the Canucks are going to do no worse than a one-goal loss.

Of course, Vancouver won its last game, 3-2 over Arizona.  That was here at home and while it did go to overtime, a tie at the end of regulation is all we are looking for here.  Note that when it comes to overtime games, the Canucks haven't had much luck, taking 12 losses in 16 tries. There's only one team that has more "loser points" and wouldn't you know it, it's Nashville w/ 13!  With 32 overtime games between these two teams  (that's a lot!), certainly we have a little history on our side here. Consider that five of Nashville's last 14 games have gone past regulation. 

There also is the chance of Vancouver simply winning straight up here. The only other time these two met this season was a one-goal game (2-1 Nashville), but the Canucks held a 29-19 edge in shots in that game.  Goaltender Ryan Miller is better than his recent numbers show while his Nashville counterpart Pekka Rinne has to slow down, sooner rather than later, right?  The Preds still have a losing road record this season and their sense of urgency is no longer as great now that they've built a comfortable lead in the race for the first Wild Card spot.  5* Puck Line Vancouver (+1.5)

10* Dallas (9:05 ET):  I'm liking this matchup a lot as these are two of the teams in the three-horse race for the Central Division.  St. Louis is the hot team right now (five straight wins), but it's interesting to note that they have a goal differential of just +10 for the year, which happens to be their goal differential during the five-game win streak. So prior to getting on this roll, they were dead even in goals scored vs. against, which shows that they've largely overachieved.  Dallas, who just picked up a big 5-2 win at home last night against Chicago, has a goal differential of +25.  The Stars were struggling in February, but have now won three of four and I think they relish this opportunity to get the Blues at home. The home side has won all four previous meetings between these two this year.

Dallas is 22-10-1 on home ice this year and outscoring its opponents by 0.7 goals per game. They've gotten to host St. Louis just one time this season, right before the New Year, and shut them out 3-0 w/ a 38-22 edge in shots.  Neither of these teams have had much difficulty scoring of late. The Blues have averaged an incredible 4.2 goals per game during their win streak while the Stars are at 3.8. But troubling for Blues fans has to be the fact the team is also allowing 34.4 shots per game, a very high number that is more than any other club gives up per game this year.  They've actually been outshot each of the last two games, but thanks to goalie Jake Allen continue to pull out victories. But given that the Blues rank just 23rd in the league in goals per game, this is not a sustainable formula for success.

Dallas, as we know, is an offensive juggernaut. They have basically gone "wire to wire" this season leading the league in goals per game (currently 3.2), so we can likely count on them sustaining recent offensive production as it is right in line with season long numbers.  What I've been most impressed with lately though is the Stars' ability to limit the number of shots by opponents as that number is down to an average of 25.8 the last five games.  Both teams played yday (Blues won 5-2 vs. Anaheim), so no edge there, but the bottom line is one team has been better over the long-term. 10* Dallas

10* New Orleans (7:35 ET):  It was a tough loss for the Pelicans last night as they fell in Memphis, 121-114 in overtime.  The injury-riddled Grizzlies strung together multiple career-best performances from a rag-tag group of players. The Pelicans' defensive numbers and road record should certainly give us pause, but fortunately for tonight bettors seem willing to lay the points with an equally bad Milwaukee team.  The Bucks are off a surprising result; that being a 114-108 win (here at home) over Miami as 3.5-pt dogs. But consider that the first time these teams played, the Pelicans won by 17 and that's despite the Bucks shooting 52.7% overall, including 6 of 15 from three-point range and they were 83.3% from the line....and they still lost! Take the points.

New Orleans has actually beaten Milwaukee six straight times (17-2 L19 meetings!) and a big reason for that is Anthony Davis, who has averaged 28.5 PPG the last four times they've played. Davis will certainly be the best player on the floor tonight and last night, he turned in 25 pts and 13 rebounds. Lately, he's been getting lots of help from PG Jrue Holliday (34 pts last night).  Unfortunately, the team has still dropped six of seven, though many of those defeats have been close. Every one has been by single digits, including two by a combined seven pts.  Last night was an overtime game and they've also had to play San Antonio during this stretch.  My own personal power ratings have these teams rated dead even, so the points are a premium here.

Milwaukee isn't favored often and when they are, results are mixed (7-7).  Tonight marks the most points that they will have had to lay in any game since before Christmas when they hosted Philadelphia.  Off a SU win this year, they are only 10-16 SU.  Just twice since Feb 1 have they posted B2B victories. It is important to remember that this is a bad team, one that is being outscored by essentially four points per game. It's also important to note that just like they are here, they were at home after their two previous wins and both times they lost.  With this number being driven up, the value is on the dog here.  10* New Orleans

8* Ottawa (7:05 ET):  Toronto actually showed signs of some improvement (by their standard) early on this season, so it has to be disconcerting for them to be in last place in the league w/ only 55 points. They have the worst goal differential in the entire league (-38), so them coming off a rare win (as they are here) is probably a good time to go against them.  The win, 4-3 over the Islanders, took place at home. They've been playing on home ice a lot lately (9 of their last 11 games), so considering they won only two of those games, them being the road team here is troubling.  Their 20 road losses in regulation are second most in the league, trailing Edmonton by only one.  This is a game Ottawa simply must have. I'm on them.

The Senators have lost three straight and five of six.  Two nights ago, it was a 6-2 loss at Florida and the club now finds itself seven points back of the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference.  So, again, this is a game they simply cannot afford to lose.  I mentioned that they've lost five of six. Guess who the one win came against?  Yes, Toronto, whom they are 3-0 against this season.  The only time they've gotten to play host, the final score was 6-1.  Division games simply have not gone well for the Maple Leafs this season as they are 1-18(!) in them.  Getting back to Ottawa's desperation, they are 4-1 SU this season when off three straight losses.

The Sens do give up too many shots per game (most in the league), but that's long been an issue for the Leafs as well, so (and this is re-emphasized by the head to head results) this seems to be a tailor-made matchup.  Toronto is clearly playing with an eye towards the future as they now have the youngest blue line in league history and that's trouble w/ a goaltender (Garrett Sparks) who has an .889 save percentage on the road. Ottawa's Craig Anderson has struggled of late, but still owns a .931 save percentage at home. 8* Ottawa

10* Under Seton Hall/Villanova (5:30 ET): Watching yday's Villanova-Providence game, where I had the Under, I was feeling very confident throughout. It was a 32-27 game at halftime (total was 140.5), meaning it would have taken quite the high scoring second half to put the game Over. With just 10 minutes remaining in the second half (three-quarters of the way through the game), only 93 total pts had been scored. Incredibly, we then got more than 50 in the final 10 minutes as the game did in fact sneak Over the total. Overall, it was the eighth straight 'Nova game that went Over. It's been a similar story w/ Seton Hall (five straight Overs), but tonight I'm forecasting a bit of regression to the mean as both teams are playing a third game in three days and my play is on the Under.

Both of Villanova's tournament games have followed a similar patter w/ low-scoring first halves and then high scoring second halves.  The discrepancy was even more pronounced in Thursday's 81-67 win over Georgetown as just 55 total pts were scored in the 1H, but 93 in the 2H.  After those two frustrating losses for Under bettors, I believe tonight will be their night. Defensively, the Wildcats are more solid than they're given credit for as they allow only 63.5 PPG. They've allowed more than that in seven of their last eight games, so I expect a better effort on that end of the floor here. On the offensive end, I see them as likely to cool down after averaging 82.6 PPG on 51.5% shooting the last five games.

Seton Hall has solidified itself as a NCAA Tournament team with wins over Creighton and Xavier the last two days.  They shot better than 50% both games while averaging 84 PPG, obviously a very high number. I just can't see that continuing.  Historically, teams tend to wear down as these conference tourneys progress.  The last time these teams played, the game just snuck Over the total (by three), but the previous four matchups had all stayed Under.  The Pirates last five games have been drastically higher scoring than the five before that and I think it's telling where this number opened and all the early money came in on the Under. 10* Under Seton Hall/Villanova

10* UT Arlington (4:30 ET):  The Mavericks of UT Arlington came into the year as the favorites in the Sun Belt, but a season-ending injury to leading scorer Kevin Hervey threatened to derail their entire campaign.  Remember that this is a team that delivered B2B non-conference road wins over Ohio State and Memphis back in November!  Since Hervey has gone down, the team is just 4-11 against the spread, but note that they were favored in the vast majority of those games and have still managed a winning straight up record, including 4-0 here in March. In yday's quarterfinal victory over Texas State, the final score was 72-63, but the Mavericks just missed out on covering as 9.5-pt chalk. Maybe you're surprised here that they are a slight favorite over the team w/ a bye (LA Monroe), but don't be. Lay the short number.

Now, UT Arlington did need to rally back from a small halftime deficit yday. But they closed strong and honestly, I'd rather them save "their best" for this game as opposed to the previous game. This is a double revenge spot for the Mavericks, who dropped both regular season matchups to LA Monroe despite being favored in both games. (Hervey did not play in either game). The last time they met, it was a close game, 64-61 in Arlington as the Warhawks closed as seven-point dogs.  I can't see the Mavericks losing for a third time and it's telling that they are still favored here despite LA Monroe being off the bye.  Something you probably did not know is that UT Arlington is first in the country in rebounding, 12th in assists and 31st in points per game. They shot only 38.1% from the field last night (28.1% from 3-pt range), a number we should see go up here.

LA Monroe comes into this game on a nine-game win streak, so to some it is curious that they are the underdog here.  Four of those wins were by five points or less, however, and their overall record remains worse than that of UT-Arlington. Before this nine-game win streak started, the Warhawks were only 10-12 SU. UT Arlington has won 9 of 11 themselves and the two losses were a) to Monroe by three and b) to SBC regular season champ Ark Little Rock on the road.  The Mavericks have 10 wins away from home compared to just six for LA Monroe and a greater scoring margin in conference play. 10* UT Arlington

8* UConn (3:00 ET):  This is a little contrarian here as UConn is coming off yday's incredible 4OT win over Cincinnati, so the fact they are w/o rest will have most bettors willing to line up against them.  But it is telling that they remain favored over the #1 seed in this American Tourney, that being Temple.  The top-seeded Owls are perhaps the weakest #1 seed in any major conference tournament and I have to believe this line would have been a lot higher were it not for yday's marathon effort from the Huskies.  Interestingly enough, both regular season meetings saw Temple upset UConn, so the precedent is there. However, both games were very close and I can't help but think the Huskies will be energized not only by what happened yesterday, but by the double revenge angle as well. Lay the number.

UConn was favored in both regular season games vs. Temple, first by 10 at home, then by five on the road. Yes, they did lose both games. But using those lines as a barometer, I can't help but think we're getting a great value here on the Huskies, especially because the public perception will be that the team is "too tired" and at a major disadvantage playing the second of back to back games.  Were this their third game in as many days, I might be inclined to agree, but the bottom line is that UConn had four days off prior to yesterday.  I think the "fatigue factor" is somewhat overrated this time of year and the players are going to be just fine here. Remember that they have four players averaging double figures in points.

Temple won yday by a score of 89-72 over a bad South Florida team, so that's serving to bring the line down as well.  But this Owls team is incredibly shaky as a #1 seed given that they were just +3.0 PPG in conference play despite a 15-4 SU record.  Over the course of the entire season, they were only able to outscore opponents by just under two points per game, yet won over two-thirds of their games.  I can only assume that "the world" was waiting to line up to bet against UConn here, but Temple just happens to be the wrong team to take. For the sake of comparison, the Huskies are outscoring opponents by 10.0 PPG this year. 8* UConn

8* Dallas (2:05 ET):  The Mavs and Pacers seem to be two teams trending in opposite directions. But is recent form truly indicative of overall play this season? I think not. Dallas has lost four straight games, three of them at home and three of them as favorites. But all of those games were close, save for Monday's 109-90 loss to the Clippers and even that one saw them have the lead at halftime.  They've now dropped into eighth place in the Western Conference, a precarious place to be sure. I cannot see them losing again, especially at home, and Indiana seems to be getting "too much credit" for its (admittedly impressive) upset of San Antonio Monday night. I look for a reversal of recent fortunes here.

While the Pacers did beat the Spurs, 99-91 as 6.5-point home dogs, they have had their troubles w/ the Western Conference this season. They're still only 12-14 straight up and an even worse 8-18 against the spread in non-conference games.  It's been B2B upsets for them (won at Washington last Saturday) and overall the team is 4-1 ATS its last five games. But they still have a losing road record and it's highly unlikely that the Mavs shoot 35.4% here, which is what the Spurs (4 of 28 on three-point attempts) did Monday night, their season-low. Also, it should be pointed out that San Antonio was w/o HC Greg Popovich (family emergency). Indiana's defense generally isn't that great (101.9 PPG allowed) and Dallas can score.

Now, the Mavs are off B2B sub-100 point games, which is a rarity for them. Previously, they'd topped the century mark in ten straight games.  Still w/ a winning record at home, the team averages 104.6 PPG here at home and overall it rates in the top eight in terms of offensive efficiency.  There was some sketchy officiating in Wednesday's home loss to Detroit (technical foul called on Deron Williams).  Keep in mind that this is now Dallas' longest losing streak of the entire season. Thus, we're now able to get them at essentially a pick 'em at home, a great value all things considered. It was an ugly 26-point loss in Indiana back in December, but the line for that game was 4.5, so I can't see how the Mavs aren't favored in this situation. 8* Dallas

8* LSU (1:00 ET):  Anything short of winning the SEC Tournament probably means LSU won't be in the field of 68 next week, thereby denying us the opportunity to watch the top NBA prospect in the country (Ben Simmons) on the grandest stage.  So, yes, there will be a tremendous sense of urgency from the Bayou Bengals this afternoon as they take on top seeded Texas A&M. They had little difficulty w/ 12-seed Tennessee yday, winning 84-75 and covering as 5.5-pt chalk. I was less inclined to back LSU as a favorite, but now taking points against an A&M side that was quite fortunate to cover yday as 5.5-pt faves themselves (never led by more than the final margin of six!). Take the points here.

These teams met twice during the regular season, each winning at home. Given that the line was +7.5 in College Station, this looks like a strong value.  That game came at a time when A&M was playing really well and the final score was a bit misleading in the sense that the score was tied 44-44 w/ 15 minutes remaining. But LSU was held to just 23 pts in the second half and Simmons 10 for the entire game. On Feb 13, the Tigers got their revenge, however, winning 76-71 as Simmons went for 16-11-7 and this time the team scored 43 pts after halftime. A&M hasn't lost since, but one certainly has to question their level of motivation this weekend as they're pretty much locked into being a 4 or 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament and really have little to play for.

I think that the most encouraging sign for LSU coming out of yday's game was the fact that they prevailed comfortably despite playing w/o Simmons for the final 15 minutes of the first half (foul trouble).  This team has generally struggled outside of Baton Rouge this season, but with their season at stake, I'm expecting to get their best here. Remember only ONE top seed (Chattanooga) has won its conference tourney so far and A&M is only 9-9-1 ATS vs. conference foes this year with an average margin of victory less than seven points per game.  This one comes down to the fact that one side has a whole lot more to play for and that side is getting a generous number of points.  8* LSU

8* Michigan (1:00 ET):  Firmly on the bubble, Michigan did themselves a big favor yday w/ a win over top seed Indiana in the Big 10 quarterfinals as 7.5-pt dogs. The 72-69 win came on a last-second three-pointer and while it had to feel good, by no means is the Wolverines' work done here in Indianapolis.  A win here over Purdue, themselves coming off a very impressive win yday, would go a long way for the contingent from Ann Arbor. Because Purdue won in such blowout fashion Friday, 89-58 over Illinois, they come into this rubber match clearly overvalued.  The spread is a few points too high as consider the Boilermakers were a 1.5-pt dog in Ann Arbor the last time these teams met, and they lost.  Take the points.

Anything that could go right, did, for Purdue yday.  They shot 58.3 percent to 39.3 for Illinois and were +18 in rebounding differential.  They made 13 of 27 three-pointers, highly irregular for a team that averages only eight makes per game from behind the arc.  Winning by that kind of margin is largely irregular for the Boilermakers. While they do come into this contest off three straight double digit wins, that's above their season long average margin of victory in Big 10 play of +7.5 PPG.  In the two regular season meetings vs. Michigan, they were a little fortunate in that the Wolverines have shot only 37% overall from the field. I expect the Maize and Blue to shoot significantly better here as how long can Purdue sustain their current level of 3-pt FG% defense (29.3 percent)?

Playing with one or less days rest, Michigan is 3-0 ATS this season. They are 5-1 ATS in neutral site games as well.  They're the more motivated side here as they probably need a win here and maybe even tomorrow as well.  Note that despite shooting only 5 of 20 from three-point range last month vs. Purdue, the Wolverines still won. Obviously, it's been two very narrow wins so far in this tournament, one in overtime and one at the buzzer.  But it's unusual for Michigan to be getting this many points. They covered taking 9.5 at Maryland last month and then obviously won outright yday.  Those are the only two times since the beginning of February they've taken this many points. 8* Michigan

10* Tulsa (9:00 ET):  This will be the fourth quarterfinal of the day in the American Conference Tourney and I think we have a great value here w/ a Tulsa team trying to play its way into the Big Dance. Not only is Memphis a team I've exclusively played AGAINST this season (the Tigers are 11-16 ATS in all games), but this is a revenge spot for the favored Golden Hurricane, who lost outright as 2.5-point road favorites in Memphis in the second to last regular season game. Getting to now lay a near identical number at a neutral setting is a blessing as far as I'm concerned as there's no denying which team has been better throughout the campaign.  Tulsa is not only 48-9 SU as a favorite the last three seasons, but also 37-19 ATS vs. conference foes. Lay the small number here.

The Golden Hurricane concluded its regular season w/ an 84-74 win over South Florida.  Though they failed to cover there as lofty 16.5-pt favorites, it was a nice bounce back nevertheless from the loss to Memphis. Coming into the weekend, Tulsa is squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble as the venerable Joe Lunardi currently has them among the first four teams OUT of the field of 68.  That means a loss here is something they simply can't afford and honestly they probably have to at least get to the finals.  Having played just one game in the last 12 days, and that was six days ago, they should be more than ready for this game.  A 5-2 ATS record when seeking to revenge a road loss is also encouraging.

The Memphis program has clearly regressed under HC Josh Pastner, so I'm not surprised at all to see them come in as the six seed here. The Tigers have had to play twice since upsetting Tulsa on Feb 28, first losing at Temple (72-62) and then beating up on a bad East Carolina team, 83-53.  That loss to Temple is significant because it dropped the Tigers to 1-6 ATS coming off a conference win this season. They are just 3-8 SU outside of Memphis this year due to giving up over 80 points per game.  They shot nearly 54% vs. Tulsa the first time, which won't be repeated here, nor will Tulsa's 7 for 25 shooting from three-point range. Honestly, I am anticipating a blowout in this one. 10* Tulsa

10* Over Flyers/Lightning (7:35 ET):   Few, if any, teams have been as hot as Tampa Bay recently, but even so the Lightning find themselves in a three-way donnybrook for the top spot in the Atlantic w/ Boston and Florida. They've won 9 of 11, but those two losses have occurred over the last two games and the one that really hurt was the 1-0 overtime loss at the Bruins Tuesday night. Being held scoreless had to be a shocker for the Lightning, whose offense has really come alive of late. In fact, they are up to 9th in the league in goals per game and had scored four (or more) goals seven times during their win streak. I look for them to bounce back here, at least offensively, against a Flyers team that has played a rash of high-scoring games recently.  Take the Over.

Phily has totaled an impressive 10 goals in its last two games, both wins.  One of those is quite significant to this matchup as it was a 4-2 decision, at home, over Tampa Bay.  That game saw the Flyers get off 40 shots, a very impressive number, and that was on the heels of a 6-0 win over Columbus two nights earlier where they registered 36 shots on goal.  The power play, which had gone 0 for 11 its two previous games, finally came alive w/ a goal vs. TB on Monday.  Note that when playing with three or more days' rest, the Flyers are 3-1 Over this season. The Over is also 12-6 for them this season when on the road and the total is 5 or less.  It's interesting that they've allowed just 37 shots the L2 games because for the season they allow 31.2 per game, sixth most in the league. So, I expect the Lightning to get its fair share of scoring chances in this one.

Unlike the 4-2 loss to the Flyers (when they had just 18 shots on goal), the Lightning simply ran into a hot goaltender Tuesday night in Boston as Jonas Gustavsson turned in a stunning, 42-save performance.  I do not expect a similar kind of performance here from the Flyers' Steve Mason.  One area to look at for Tampa Bay is the power play, which has gone just 4 for its last 51 over the L16 games. That unit should certainly start to improve moving forward. The Over is 6-1 for TB in Friday night games this season. 10* Over Flyers/Lightning

10* Detroit (7:05 ET): Yes, I fully remember going against the Pistons two nights ago while pointing out their striking home vs. road dichotomy. They "got one over on me," beating the Mavs 102-96 as 2.5-point dogs.  Remember though, in Detroit's previous game, I was on them and they rolled to a 20-point victory (at home) against previously red-hot Portland.  While B2B minor upsets might normally give me pause, it is the Hornets that should be more worried about regression here as they've now won five in a row while averaging over 116 PPG, which is well above their season average. I've questioned Charlotte as a favorite before (won taking the points against them Monday) and will do so again here. Take the points.

The Hornets have hardly "had it rough" of late w/ recent games against the likes of Phoenix, Philadelphia, Minnesota and New Orleans.  I do anticipate that this line will continue to get bet up, so you may want to wait a little bit before actually placing your wager.  It has been six seasons since the Hornets had a six-game win streak, which is what they are gunning for here. Without question, Kemba Walker has been the catalyst during this win streak w/ four straight 30+ games. But how long can one player carry his team offensively?  Again, the Hornets have been facing some really bad defensive teams of late.  While their ATS record as a favorite is almost identical their record as an underdog, I think we're starting to reach a point where this team is becoming overvalued. After all, a 9-3 ATS run is sure to start regressing to the mean, sooner rather than later, right?

  The Pistons don't necessarily shoot the ball well, but they already have more wins than they did at the end of last season and SVG clearly has them trending in the right direction. With Chicago's loss last night, they are now in the eighth place position by themselves in the Eastern Conference. Certainly, they don't want to concede that right back.  Unlike Charlotte, I'm not sure we've reached "peak Pistons" yet.  In what shapes up as a pretty even battle on paper, taking the points is the way to go.  10* Detroit

8* Under Providence/Villanova (6:30 ET):  These conference tournaments are arguably tougher on teams because unlike the NCAA Tournament, there's often no days off between games and eventually that starts to wear on the players. Last week, in the smaller conferences, I did quite well for myself by betting the Under in the final rounds of several conference tourneys and now that the more marquee leagues have reached a similar point, I'll adopt the same strategy.  Here, in our first Big East semifinal of the night, we have a Villanova team that has gone Over in its last seven games, most recently yday's 81-67 win over Georgetown. Providence did not go Over the total yday in its win over Butler, but shot 55.4% from the field, which I clearly don't see them matching here. Take the Under.

Over its last five games, Villanova is averaging a whopping 84 points per game, which is well above its overall season average of 77.3 PPG and even more above its scoring average outside of Philadelphia (73.6 PPG).  So we're due to see a decrease in scoring from them. Yesterday, it was only a 28-27 game at the half vs. G'town before an offensive explosion took place in the final 20 minutes w/ the two teams combining for 93 points, 53 of them coming from the Nova side.  The key, without question, for the Wildcats was making 13 of 21 three-point attempts. That will be tough to do here against Providence, who is allowing opponents to shoot just 31.8% from behind the arc. In the two regular season matchups, Nova connected on only 14 of 53 three-point attempts against the Friars.

Similar to Villanova's performance yday, Providence shot better than 60 percent in the second half vs. Butler.  Ben Bentil led the way with 38 points and I would look for a sharp decline here in both team and individual performance.  Villanova is holding teams to an average of just 63.4 PPG on 39.6% shooting for the year.  All four of Providence's neutral site games this year have stayed Under the total.  After scoring 90 pts in the regular season finale (vs. sorry St. John's) and then last night's hot shooting, the Friars (like Nova) are due to regress offensively. While one regular season meeting went Over and the other Under, tonight's number is higher than both of those contests. 8* Under Providence/Villanova

8* Bowling Green (6:30 ET):  We've already seen a number of top seeds drop in the mid-major conferences, so I see no reason why the MAC's #1 team, Akron, would be exempt from suffering the same fate.  The Zips had all sorts of trouble with Eastern Michigan yday, winning only 65-63 as a five-point choice.  Curiously, they are now a bigger favorite in the next round against Bowling Green, who has pulled two upsets to get here. Granted, the Falcons are a low-seed in this tournament and did lose by 35 at Akron in late February. But I don't see the justification for them getting more points here in Cleveland than they did at Akron. After ending the regular season on a 1-10 ATS slide, the underdog Falcons clearly have some "momentum" here. Take the points.

Akron's big win over BG two weeks ago was actually nothing new. They've taken the last six meetings, covering the spread in five of them w/ one push. But one thing I've noticed about these Zips is that they seem to have a bit of a "glass jaw" away from home. While they were a perfect 15-0 SU at home this year, they are only 10-7 SU on the road/in neutral site games and yday saw them down by as many as 12 in the second half vs. an Eastern Michigan team that simply is not that great.  Sure, Akron fans can point to the fact that their team shot only 33.9 percent overall, including 9 of 33 from three-point range, and still win. But it's not as if the Zips have been regularly shooting the ball well anyway.  One would have to go all the way back to the final game of January to find the last time they were above 50% from the field.

As for Bowling Green, they've now shot better than 50% in three consecutive games in what is turning into a bit of a Cinderella run. I'll go back to their pointspread woes (1-10 L11) at the end of the regular season as a sign that the Falcons were due to turn things around here in the MAC Tournament. First, they knocked off Kent State in a "true" road game Wednesday, then yday it was a three-point win over Central Michigan here in Cleveland. Both games featured second half comebacks.  It's "that time of year" and you just get the feeling that BG has a bit of "lady luck" on its shoulders, so I anticipate them staying within this number. 8* Bowling Green

10* Cleveland (10:35 ET):  Since Feb 1, the Lakers are 10-5 ATS, which has to be a bit of a surprise. Of course, the biggest surprise of them all took place Sunday as they stunned the Warriors w/ a 112-95 win as 17.5-point home dogs. I called for a letdown the following game, but it didn't happen as they ended up defeating Orlando 107-98 as a 3.5-point dog here at home.  But I'll look for the run to end here with a visit from Cleveland, who picked up a much needed win last night in Sacramento and a strong finish to that game should carry over here. My own personal power ratings suggest the Cavs should be about a 13-point favorite in this one, so there's definitely a little value.  Lay the points.

All season long, I've been hammering home that road teams playing the second game of a back to back are typically undervalued. That appears to be the case w/ Cleveland here, even though this is certainly a significant number of points to be laying on the road. While it was only a nine-point win in Cleveland for the Cavs the last time these two met, note that they did lead by 19 entering the fourth quarter and that was after losing Kevin Love to an injury in the first half.  After a relatively sluggish first half, the Cavs busted loose for 66 points in the second half last night against Sacramento. I find it interesting that while the Kings may be the worst team in the league in terms of points allowed per game, the Lakers rank last in defensive efficiency, so what I'm saying here is to expect another big offensive game from LeBron and company here.

The hype for this game will be centered around the fact that it is the final meeting between James and Kobe Bryant.  The latter did not play Tuesday, but given the circumstance here, I expect he will suit up and take the court. This will, of course, only hamper the Lakers offense.  Almost entirely due to Kobe, the Lakers are the worst shooting team in the entire league.  Note that this is just the third time all year that the Lakers have been off B2B wins. The first two instances saw them have to play the Warriors and Spurs, so not surprisingly, there hasn't been a single three-game win streak all season. 10* Cleveland

10* Creighton (9:30 ET):  A team like Seton Hall, who is all but assured of making the NCAA Tournament at this point, can be somewhat of a dangerous proposition in this instance as they are laying points to a team playing w/ "nothing to lose."  Now the Pirates have been a strong bet for much of this year as they finished the regular season 19-9 against the spread.  But they were only 9-7 ATS when favored, meaning much of the real "damage" was done as an underdog, so I like the value we're getting here w/ Creighton in the spoiler role. These teams exchanged road wins during the regular season w/ Seton Hall last winning in Omaha, by 10 as 5.5-point dogs, back on January 30th. This is a 'pick em type contest from where I sit, so I'll take the points.

Now Creighton's regular season did not end all that well as they've lost four of their last five.  But their last three defeats have all been by five points or less.  They put up 93 points in the regular season finale, but that was not enough against Xavier, who scored 98.  I fully expect the defense to "tighten up" here, but as for the offense remember it was just three games ago that they hit the century mark, albeit against St. John's.  Though you might not be able to discern this from simply looking at the number of points allowed per game (72.8), this was actually the Blue Jays' best defensive season (in terms of efficiency) under HC McDermott as they ranked in the top 50 nationally and fourth overall in the Big East.

Speaking of defense, Seton Hall is allowing the opposition to shoot just 26.4% from three-point range! Can that really continue?  That will be tough.  Yes, I did take the Pirates about ten days ago when they beat Xavier outright.  But that took place on their home floor.  Something I find interesting is that despite Seton Hall being 4.5 games better overall than Creighton, the two teams PPG differential is essentially dead even. Again, that tells  me that we have more of a pick 'em type contest than one that Seton Hall should be favored.  Do not be surprised if Seton Hall's 67% free throw shooting comes back to bite them here. 10* Creighton

6* Minnesota (8:05 ET): The pressure is on the Wild here as Colorado, who they are competing with for the final playoff spot out West, picked up a big win against Anaheim last night. That makes it a two-point deficit for Minnesota, which obviously can be made up here as they host Edmonton.  The Oilers had actually won three in a row at one point, but have since dropped two of three w/ both losses coming by three goal margins.  Tuesday saw them get blanked at home by San Jose, 3-0, which isn't a good sign seeing as they are just 7-15 SU following a game where they scored one or no goals. Meanwhile, Minnesota is also off a loss, 4-2 at home to St. Louis, but they've had three days off and had won four in a row prior. I see them bouncing back in a game they absolutely cannot afford to lose.

Edmonton is just awful on the road as they are 10-21-5, which is the most road losses of any team in the league.  Hence, it should not be a surprise to find them tied at the bottom of the Western Conference w/ just 59 points.  There's little to play for these last 13 games, so I don't expect a very motivated club here nor down the stretch. Minnesota, meanwhile, has everything to play for (i.e. the playoffs).  They are 8-4 since the coaching change and while their results have been surprisingly poor this season when playing with this much rest, I simply cannot see them losing on home ice to a last place opponent.  They are 2-0 against the Oilers already this year, including a 5-2 win in Edmonton last month.

Edmonton just isn't scoring much lately (two goals or less in 12 of the last 17 games) and a power play that's just 1 for its last 24 isn't helping matters.  Of course, this really isn't anything new; the team ranks 27th overall for the year in goals per game, not to mention they are 25th in goals allowed as well.  The Wild have scored nine times in the two games against the Oilers this season.  They typically do a good job at limiting the number of shot opportunities by the opponent, but have gotten away from that recently. This has bounce back written all over it for a team that hasn't dropped B2B home games in nearly a month. 6* Minnesota

8* Butler (2:30):  This is a 4 vs. 5 (seed) matchup in the Big East Tournament with the latter favored despite having lost to the former twice during the regular season. That should tell you something right there. But those two wins now seem like "forever ago" and the bottom line is that a Providence team few believed in to begin with has faded badly down the stretch. Sure, the Friars concluded their regular season with three straight victories. But two of those came at the expense of DePaul and St. John's, the two worst teams in the league. Prior to that, they had dropped five of six. Meanwhile, Butler has won seven of nine (8-1 ATS) w/ the only losses coming at the hands of Xavier and Villanova (top two in the Big East). We've got teams trending in opposite directions as they head toward the NCAA Tournament. Lay the points.

It's not like either regular season matchup was a blowout either. The first saw Butler, at home, actually enjoy a 36-25 halftime advantage. But they shot only 3 of 17 from three-point range and would go on to lose 81-73 as a 7.5-point favorite.  That's a 56-point second half for the Friars, if you're keeping score at home, and at the time they were 13-1 straight up.  Three weeks later, it was a three-point Providence win at home as they again rallied late after trailing for much of the second half. Butler is now just 1-5 SU/ATS vs. Providence since becoming conference foes, but I'll go ahead and back the double revenge angle as I simply cannot see Providence beating them for a third time this season.

As I mentioned earlier, Butler is clearly playing a lot better right now.  They closed the regular season w/ a 21-point win at home over Marquette. They led by 19 at halftime, shot 56 percent from the floor and got 36 bench points. While that sounds like a call for regression is in order, note this team has averaged 90 PPG its last three and averages 81.3 PPG. Over the last 11 games, they've averaged 79.5 PPG w/ 42 percent shooting from three-point range. The key for them seems to be getting to 80 pts as they are 15-0 SU when they do.  Something interesting is that Providence only shoots 41.7% from the floor. I don't see them keeping pace here. 8* Butler

8* Duke (2:30 ET): This seems like a bit of a curious number, no? You have Duke, favored, despite playing yday and not covering against a NC State team that was just beaten by Notre Dame, the opponent here.  That seemed curious to me at first, but judging by power rankings this line actually seems too low. Duke did lose outright, at home, to the Fighting Irish in the regular season. But they were 8.5-point favorites in that one and if you factor out the home court edge, they still should be -4.5 in this instance. Now, you could make the argument that the loss coupled with playing w/ no rest should make the line even lower, but the bottom line is I expect the Blue Devils (#3 in offensive efficiency) to "circle the wagons" here and surprise. Lay the short number.

Notre Dame is similar to Duke in the sense that they rank very high in offensive efficiency (#4), but are not good defensively (#189!). That defensive rating makes Duke (#113) look positively stout by comparison!  Duke not only has revenge from the regular season, but also LY's ACC Tournament. Overall, they've dropped four of five to the Irish, so I expect this game to carry a ton of weight with the Blue Devil players. While their lack of depth could ultimately become a problem, the bottom line is they played extraordinarily well yday.  They shot better than 52 percent from the floor and turned the ball over only four times. I suppose you could point to the fact they still barely won, but I don't anticipate the Irish being as hot here as NC State was yesterday.

Notre Dame's offensive numbers had curtailed in losses to both Florida State and Miami, but like Duke, they had their way w/ NC State, scoring 89 pts on 50 percent shooting.  The previous five games all saw them fail to break 72 points, their season average away from South Bend, and those were against some of the ACC's lesser teams.  Duke had not shot well for three straight games before yday and while their defensive numbers may not have impressed vs. the Wolfpack, the bottom line is that the Blue Devils are 11-3 ATS the L14 times they've allowed 80 or more points the last game, including 4-1 this season.  8* Duke

10* Florida (1:00 ET):  A pretty poor finish to the regular season has the Gators' NCAA Tourney hopes pretty much on life support and given the events of the last week (lots of upsets), it may very well take winning the SEC Tournament to get in.  I'm not sure if they'll be able to accomplish the feat w/ the likes of Kentucky and Texas A&M in their way, but the fact is they are a dangerous 8-seed here in Nashville. I'd probably rank only four teams ahead of them in the SEC power structure and one of those is certainly not Arkansas, their first round opponent, whom they've already beaten by four in Gainesville earlier in the year. While Florida didn't cover the spread there (-7.5), the number is considerably lower here and I have the Gators advancing w/ relative ease.

Arkansas was able to hang tough in that first meeting by making 10 of 21 three-point attempts. Meanwhile, Florida was just 5 of 19.  I suppose that's not too far off from overall season averages, but still I wouldn't expect a repeat of that discrepancy.  It's also important to note that the Razorbacks have just three wins outside of Fayatteville this season and are 0-3 in neutral site games.  Their regular season did not end well as they lost at home to South Carolina, 76-61 as 6.5-point favorites. Unlike Florida, the Hogs have no realistic shot at making the NCAA Tournament (barring an improbable SEC Tournament win), so their motivation may not be as high this afternoon.

I admit that Florida is only 2-8 ATS its last 10 games (4-6 straight up). But three of those SU losses were by six points or less.  Unlike Arkansas, the Gators regular season ended well w/ an 82-72 win over Missouri.  The potential loss of center John Egbunu (injured in practice Tuesday) does hurt - literally and figuratively - but overall Florida is the far better team here due to its defense, which holds opponents to 68.7 points per game. It was disappointing that they scored 87 pts in the first meeting w/ Arkansas and still didn't cover.  If they are anywhere near that point total again today, it will be an easy trip to the pay window. 10* Florida

10* Arizona State (11:30 ET):  I found this line to be rather curious.  Though it was in Tempe, ASU destroyed Oregon State 86-68 (as five-point favorites) earlier this season. Even factoring out home court advantage, it really makes little sense then that the Sun Devils wouldn't be favored here.  Yes, they did not end the regular season well. That's part of it. The other half of the equation is that Oregon State is considered to be a "bubble team," which as you probably know tends to overvalue this time of year. So too does the Beavers' 86-82 win at UCLA in the regular season finale.  But before that, OSU had lost three of five and one of their two wins came by a single point. I look for the Sun Devils to dash the Beavers' NCAA Tournament dreams.

Earlier, I said that Arizona State didn't finish the regular season particularly well.  They, in fact, ended February w/ four straight double digit losses.  But I then backed them at home vs. Stanford last Thursday as they picked up a really nice 74-64 win over Stanford (led by as many as 21).  Then, in the regular season finale they gave a good Cal team all it could handle and actually led at the half, not to mention led by eight halfway through the second half. It still was an easy cover as six-point dogs.  One thing that is key here for the Sun Devils, and we saw this in the win vs. Stanford, is rebounding.  They outrebounded Oregon State 39-24 in the regular season meeting and as a result shot nearly 60% from the field.  OSU is not a particularly good rebounding team.

The Beavers have Gary Payton II, but they won't have second leading scorer Tres Tinkle here. That's a big loss. Stephen Thompson Jr was able to deliver a career-high in points in the upset victory over UCLA last week, but can that be counted upon again? Probably not.  Thanks to a 55-point second half, that win over UCLA was OSU's highest scoring effort in Pac 12 play all season. Thus, we are all but guaranteed to see a regression tonight and don't think this team won't be feeling the pressure of what is perceived as a "must win" spot.  Take the points.  10* Arizona State

8* Anaheim (10:05 ET): The Ducks have surged to the top of the Pacific with a 11-0-1 mark their last 12 games and its actually not out of the realm of possibility that they finish w/ the most points in the Western Conference! This is quite the stunning development for a team that seemed bound to regress from LY's fortunate campaign (had remarkable record in one-goal games) and in fact, had started slow.  For much of the year, the offense languished in last place league-wide in terms of goals per game. But they're now up to 23rd, which is pretty notable, but not nearly as notable as the fact they are #1 in goals allowed per game. I look for this club to continue its recent strong play with another win tonight in Colorado.

Now the Ducks' one loss over the L12 games did come their last time out, but that was in a shootout vs. Washington, who is of course the top ranked team in the league right now. But it's important not to diminish the 11 straight wins prior as the game vs. the Caps clearly could have gone either way. For the most part, Anaheim had been dominating teams during its win streak as only three times were they taken past regulation and six of the victories came by multiple goals.  Overall, the team is 20-2-2 its last 24 games.  Whomever starts in goal is a fine option as Frederik Andersen has not lost in regulation in 2016 (12-0-2) thanks to a 1.76 goals against average and John Gibson leads the league w/ a 2.04 GAA this season. Special teams are a real strength with this club as they rank 2nd on the power play and 3rd in penalty killing.

As for Colorado, it has basically come down to a battle with Minnesota for the final playoff spot in the West. Lately, the Avs haven't really helped themselves w/ just three wins over the last seven games.  One of those wins came their last time on the ice, but that was also against awful Arizona (here at home).  The last five games have seen the Avs give up an average of 3.8 goals on 35.2 shots.  Those numbers are particularly troubling given who the opponent is tonight as offensively they figure to struggle.  This season has seen Colorado go just 4-11 when off a win by two or more goals. 8* Anaheim

10* New York (9:05 ET):  There's been a rather dramatic swing in the line here as the Knicks actually opened as three-point favorites and now look to be GETTING as many as three! Considering the opponent (Phoenix!), that seems odd, even though New York clearly has its own set of issues right now.  The Knicks lost again last night, 110-94 in Denver, even though Carmelo Anthony came through w/ 30 points. Other than that, it simply wasn't a very good night for the team and overall they are just 3-12 SU over the last 15 games.  I did have them Saturday night though, in an upset of Detroit (at home), where it seemed as if the money was stacked up against them there as well. I just can't believe the Suns would be bet to the role of favoritism given their own sorry state of affairs. Take the points.

Part of what's driving this line towards the Suns is that they are actually off B2B upsets of Orlando and Memphis where they covered the spread by a shocking 50 point margin.  They were 12.5-point dogs in a 102-84 win at Orlando and 9.5-pt dogs (opened much higher) in a 109-100 win at Memphis.  They've now won three of five following a disastrous 13-game losing streak, but by no means do they deserve to be favored in this spot.  Consider that they won just three games total from Christmas to the end of February!  This is their first time being favored since an outright loss to Brooklyn (here at home) on February 25th and before that one would have to go all the way back to January 3rd to find the last time they were in the chalk role.  They lost outright there as well, to the Lakers.

The Knicks have just four wins over their last 21 games, but one of them did come against Phoenix, 102-84 as seven-point chalk. As that number illustrates, even on the road, they should still be the favorite here.  They were only a one-point dog in Denver last night, so this totally seems like an overreaction (by the public, not the linesmakers).  Before winning its last two games, the Suns have been routinely getting blown out and in fact only teams (Lakers, Sixers) have a worse scoring margin per 100 possessions in the entire league. 10* New York

10* Dallas (8:35 ET): This shapes up as almost a "must-win" for the Mavericks.  Granted, "must win" doesn't mean "will win," but nevertheless I do believe the conditions are favorable here to a Dallas win and cover. As we've been through before with Detroit (tonight's opponent), their home-road dichotomy is striking. They were quite kind to me the last two games, first by losing outright in New York Saturday night (102-89, -7), then by bouncing back w/ a win Sunday at home over Portland (123-103 as a slight dog). It should not come as a shock to you to find which game was on the road and which was at home as the team's YTD record now stands at 13-20 SU away and 19-11 SU home (ATS records similar in both regards). Therefore, I'll lay the small number w/ a Dallas team desperate to avoid a fourth straight loss.

In the interest of full disclosure, I was actually debating taking the Mavs Monday night. I'm glad that I didn't because they ended up falling apart in the second half and lost 109-90 to the Clippers. That came on the heels of an excruciating 116-114 defeat (overtime) the night before in Denver where they blew a four-point lead in the final 10 seconds of regulation. As I mentioned earlier, the team has lost three in a row and that has them a tenuous seventh in the West and really it's four teams competing for those last three playoff spots.  However, the good news here is that at no point during this season have the Mavs lost four in a row and they are 5-1 ATS when off three straight losses (2-0 this year). Coming off a double-digit defeat, they are 11-4 SU/10-4-1 ATS this season. 

Detroit typically does not shoot the ball well, but on Sunday they were at 52.4% from the field in the rout of Portland. Again though, that was at home. Their previous home game before that saw them shoot 57% in a minor upset of Toronto. But in between were two road games (both losses) where they were below 40% from the field. For the season, their FG% is at just 42.4 on the road and "true" shooting numbers are really bad, due to their awful free throw percentage.  In fact, only the Lakers are worse in terms of "true" shooting percentage.  10* Dallas

8* Under Heat/Bucks (8:05 ET):  Similar to yesterday's Under play (Raptors/Nets), here we have two teams that have been scoring more than per usual of late.  Miami has topped 100 pts in nine of its last 11 games, including four straight, which is surprising as they average only 98.0 points per game. Over the last five games, they have averaged 110 PPG on better than 50% shooting. That's largely owed to one ridiculously good game where they scored 129 points vs. Chicago, shooting an other-worldly 67.5 percent.  With Milwaukee, they are actually off B2B bad shooting nights (sub 40 percent), but overall scoring has been up their recent games by about 10 points per game.  I see another Under coming through here.

Lest we forget about the Heat's defensive credentials.  They are #1 in the East, allowing just 96.9 points per game. Only the Spurs allow fewer league-wide.  This has been the top Under team in the league for the vast majority of the season (currently 39-23 in all games) and that includes a 6-1 mark when priced as a road favorite of three points or less.  In road games where the total is between 200 and 204.5, the Under is 2 for 2 this season for them and going back three seasons, 10-3.  I think it's important to note that Miami is the ONLY team in the East that neither scores nor allows 100 points per game. Only two other teams in the league (Memphis, Utah) can claim that, so a total this high seems like an overreaction to recent form by the linesmakers. 

It's also important to note that Miami averages only 94.7 PPG on the road. The last time they came calling to Milwaukee, they scored 107 and the game easily went Over the total (of 194.5 pts!). I think that game also has obviously played a large role in tonight's total.  But both teams shot that ball pretty well in that one and I don't think we'll be seeing those shooting numbers duplicated here. Consider that the first meeting this season saw the Bucks win 91-79.  Remember that the Heat are still w/o Chris Bosh.  This might seem like a low total for the Bucks, but I anticipate their shooting woes of the last two games to continue and at the same time, their defense to improve.  8* Under Heat/Bucks

10* Under Islanders/Maple Leafs (7:05 ET):  The Islanders come into tonight red-hot, winners of four straight and seven of their last eight. The Maple Leafs, well, are trending in the opposite direction as they've lost five in a row and nine of 10. So, the obvious, knee-jerk reaction here would be to simply back the Isles, but I often find it dangerous to back the "obvious" selection, especially in what appears to be a favorable price range, on the road. So, instead I'm turning to the total.  The Leafs last game, a 4-3 loss here at home to Buffalo, snapped a steak of five straight Unders and with NY's recent form also seeing more Unders than Overs, I anticipate a relatively low-scoring game here. Take the Under.

Making tonight a bit more challenging for the Isles is the fact they played last night.  It was a hard-fought 2-1 win over Pittsburgh. That game saw them get outshot (35-27) and both goals came via the power play. Expecting your special teams to carry you on a nightly basis is foolish and the Isles rank outside the top ten with the man advantage this season anyway. However, while perhaps there should be some concern over the offense tonight, I don't foresee them having any difficulty keeping Toronto's offense in check.  Over the last 10 games, New York has allowed an average of just 1.7 goals per game in regulation. Trends to consider here are the fact that the Isles are 7-2 Under ths season when playing in the second game of a back to back, plus 14-5 Under on the road when the O/U line is 5.5 (which it is here).

The last time these teams met (which was back in late December), it was a 6-3 win for the Islanders here in Toronto. But note they got those six goals on just 21 shots, which seems like a totally unsustainable ratio to me. We know from past analysis that the Leafs generally give up a lot of shots per game, but lately they've been pretty solid in that department (26.2 L5 games). Goalie Garret Sparks has been pretty solid at home this season (albeit in limited duty), turning in a .923 save percentage. The Toronto offense has not topped three goals in its last eight games and had scored just seven times in five games before Monday's loss to Buffalo (shootout). They are second to last in the league in goals per game and last on the power play. 10* Under Islanders/Maple Leafs

8* St. Louis (6:30 ET): This is a first round matchup in the Atlantic 10 Tournament. These teams split during the regular season, each winning on the other's home floor.  Those results seem rather odd considering St. Louis had just two other road wins (all season!) and George Mason had just three!  As far as recent form goes, SLU's isn't very good as they ended the regular season on a four-game losing streak and went just 2-9 SU L11, though one of those wins did come at the expense of George Mason.  As for the Patriots, they ended their regular season w/ an upset (as 6-pt dogs) of Richmond, at home. I suspect that is the reason they are getting "a little love" here, but as my regular clients already know, I often like to fade teams coming off an outright win such as that. Take the points.

This shapes up as a pretty even matchup to me. It's not as if the venue (Brooklyn) gives any kind of advantage to George Mason, so I'm not sure why they'd be laying points here, other than the fact that they are the higher seed (12 vs. 13). Back to the idea of fading the Patriots off their upset win; it turns out that they are 0-4 ATS this season off a conference win, not to mention 2-11 ATS their L13 in that situation.  This is admittedly a strong rebounding team, but their 55 boards vs. Richmond set a season-high and thus is unlikely to be duplicated here.  One thing this team does not do well is shoot the ball; their field goal percentage is at only 40.7% for the year, including 29.1% from three-point range.  Perhaps most telling of all is the fact GMU is only 2-4 SU and ATS as a favorite this year. That includes not only a home loss to St. Louis, but also another outright setback at lowly LaSalle, the only two times they were favored against an A-10 opponent.

As for St. Louis, they will need to turnaround their recent fortune in neutral court games (0-7 ATS L7!). That trend seems like an outlier, if nothing else, to me and should revert back to the mean.  Something to consider is that George Mason allowed 76.8 PPG in conference play, so the Billikens could possibly be in for a big offensive night, just like the last time they faced the Patriots. Consider they won at George Mason despite making only FOUR free throws the entire game. That number clearly should go up here and it's likely another "upset." 8* St. Louis

10* Orlando (10:35 ET):  This is a pretty short number to lay going against the sorry Lakers. Yes, I know they just pulled off the most astounding upset of this NBA season, beating the Warriors here at home Sunday. But that's clearly played a large role in the line "being what it is here" and what it is, is too short.  The Magic did play last night (and lost to the Warriors), but showed me something in not getting blown out when they easily could have (trailed by 15 in the second half). The game before saw them suffer quite the embarrassing upset (102-84 at home to Phoenix!), so this figures to be a game that Scott Skiles' team will be desperate to win. The Lakers will be in clear letdown mode after beating Golden State.

Since the start of February, the Lakers are actually a respectable 9-5 ATS.  But they've won just twice since the All-Star Break and w/o a big number attached to them, I feel they are impossible to back.  Even after beating the Warriors, they barely are ahead of the 76ers in terms of being outscored per 100 possessions (-10.4 to Philly's -10.5). My own personal power ratings indicate that Orlando should be about a 5.5-pt favorite in this spot.  The Lakers defense remains absolutely atrocious as they concede 107 points per game, which is the third most in the league and they also happen to be dead last in terms of efficiency.  I'm conflicted here on what the status of Kobe Bryant (questionable) means as despite being the team's leading scorer, he's actually more harm than help at this point.  Something to keep in mind is that the Warriors missed 26 of 30 three-point attempts against the Lakers. (They were 16 of 35 against Orlando).  I think LA rookie point guard D'Angelo Russell summed it up best when he said yesterday, "I really don't know how we came together," in regards to beating Golden State.

Orlando was just 5 for 21 last night from three-point range, a department that they should definitely improve upon here against one of the worst defensive teams in the league.  Note that as a favorite, the Magic have been pretty strong, going 16-6 SU and 13-9 ATS. Also, the Lakers are 0-3 SU/ATS following a double digit victory this year. 10* Orlando

8* Gonzaga (9:00 ET):  This is it for Gonzaga. A program that is generally considered a "lock" for the NCAA Tournament, they probably must win tonight as it seems as if their chances of gaining an at-large bid are slim to none.  Luckily, the WCC Tournament happens to be an event that they have owned. The Zags are now 38-4 SU in all WCC Tourney games (since '99) following last night's 88-84 win over BYU. Only three times in the last 16 years has Gonzaga not won this tournament. This year is a little different as they did not come in as the top seed, but here they have double revenge against the team that did (St. Mary's) and I like Mark Few's team to capture the rubber match and move on to the Big Dance as per usual. Lay the points.

Despite being the top seed and sweeping Gonzaga in the regular season, St. Mary's deserves to be the underdog here. It's certainly been an interesting season for the Gaels. They opened a perfect 12-0 against the spread, not to mention 14-1 straight up. Two of their four losses this season came to Pepperdine, but they just gained revenge for that w/ an 81-66 win and cover (were -7.5) last night.  However, they've clearly fallen off at the betting window down the stretch, covering just five of their last 15 games.  As an underdog, which they've been just three times, they are 1-2 SU/2-1 ATS. Quite simply, St. Mary's schedule this year hasn't been particularly challenging. They played two-thirds of their games at home and other than trips to Gonzaga and Cal, there was nothing even remotely challenging on paper.

This is the first time since 1995 that Gonzaga was swept in the regular season by St. Mary's. Overall, they are 40-10 SU the L50 meetings. Normally, the "shoe is on the other foot" when these teams meet in the WCC Tourney Final and it is the Gaels needing the win. Both regular season meetings were close w/ the 'Zags losing by a combined eight points.  They are the better team w/ the two best players - Sabonis & Wiltjer - on the court tonight.  Both teams shoot the ball really well. But it is St. Mary's that is more likely to regress from yday's performance (57.4%!) and the key is how well the 'Zags defend the three-point line (#1 in the country at 29%!).  8* Gonzaga

9* Under Predators/Jets (8:05 ET): With only 16 games left to play, it looks as if Nashville is in pretty good shape to make the playoffs. They are six points clear of both Colorado and Minnesota and really those are the only three teams in play for the two Wild Card spots in the Western Conference. The only team from the Central Division that we pretty much know won't be making the postseason is Winnipeg, who hosts the Preds tonight and will be charged with trying to keep their recent scoring surge in check. With Nashville having scored 19 goals in its last four games, I think it's important to note that out on the road this team averages only 2.5 gpg.  Nine of the last 12 times these teams have met, the Under has cashed. That trend continues tonight. Take the Under. 

The Jets are coming off a 2-1 loss to Edmonton on Monday, their eighth loss in the last 10 games. They did register 40 shots on goal against the Oilers, which is a positive sign, but that's also well above their season average.  In four matchups with Nashville this season, they have been held to 27 or fewer shots every time, twice to 20 or less.  Whether they face either Pekka Rinne or Carter Hutton tonight, it figures to be a challenge scoring goals.  Rinne has not lost in regulation over his L8 starts, thanks to a 1.72 goals against average. Hutton has a 1.19 GAA his L5 starts. The Predators have allowed just 16 goals total over the last nine games.

What about keeping Nashville in check?  Well, they are clearly likely to decline after this short-term offensive explosion. Filip Forsberg has been carrying the load w/ eight goals in the last six games, including two hat tricks.  He simply can't keep that pace up.  The Preds have scored at least four times in three of the four meetings this year w/ Winnipeg, but in the other were held to just one goal on 44 shots.  Ondrej Pavalec has not been particularly sharp between the pipes of late for the Jets, but does have a respectable .911 save percentage at home where the Under is 5-4-2 when he starts.  With a projected decline in offense for Nashville, along with their strong goaltending, this one looks like an easy Under. 9* Under Predators/Jets

10* Under Nets/Raptors (7:35 ET):  This one of those matchups where both teams' recent scoring levels have been way above average and as a result we have an O/U line that is significantly higher than the previous meeting.  Toronto has gone Over its last four games, mainly due to some poor defense as three times during that stretch they have conceded at least 113 points. The latest was a surprising 113-107 loss to the Rockets here at home. As for Brooklyn, they just turned in one of the most unfathomably bad defensive performances in recent memory, allowing Minnesota (yes, Minnesota!) to shoot an astounding 68.4 percent from the floor (highest FG% in a NBA game since '98!) in a 132-118 loss. I'll call for a decrease in scoring across the board here and for this game to stay Under the total.

The Nets have been out on the road for quite awhile. This will be their eighth straight away game and somewhat surprisingly they are 3-4 SU so far on the trip.  But there's no disputing what a disaster Saturday was in Minnesota, though it did come on the heels of an outright upset of Denver (as 5.5-pt dogs) that I was on the right side of the previous night. Those two games happen to both rank in the top three for highest scoring Nets' games this season. However, both had special circumstances. I already went through Minnesota's ridiculous shooting night on Saturday and on Friday the game in Denver went to overtime. I think that it's important to remember that, for the year, Brooklyn averages only 97.7 points per game.  They've been above that average three straight games now.  It's time for a little "regression to the mean."

Of course, we'll need not only the Nets offense to get worse, but also for their defense to improve.  Aiding the former is the fact Toronto is allowing just 95.9 PPG in division contests. So, again, we should be good there. As for the Raptors offense being held in check, well, Brooklyn did rest its top two interior defenders against Minnesota, which played a role in that debacle.  Both Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young are set to return here. Brooklyn is a perfect 3-0 Under as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points this season. The last time these teams met (January), both shot better than 50 percent. That won't happen again here. Also, the O/U line is about 15 points higher than it was the last time these teams met. 10* Under Nets/Raptors

8* Wagner (7:00 ET): The Northeast Conference Tournament actually got underway all the way back on Wednesday and here we are in the Finals w/ the two top teams meeting for the right to go to the Big Dance. Top-seeded Wagner has the home court advantage, though that didn't mean much in the regular season w/ them and Fairleigh Dickinson exchanging victories on the others floor.  More recently, it was Wagner winning by 20 in Teaneck. Earlier in February, FDU managed to win by three here, becoming one of just three road teams to beat Wagner at home. I do not see history repeating itself tonight as the top-seeded Seahawks are clear favorites here and for good reason as they held the rest of the NEC to just 62.5 points per game. Lay the number.

Wagner comes into this Tournament Final having won seven straight. In five of those wins, they've held their opponent under 60 points. The two times that they did not, they "cranked up" the offense, scoring 94 and 81 points respectively. The former performance was against FDU. The latter came in Saturday's semifinal against Long Island where they were 7.5-pt favorites and covered by winning 81-65. Interestingly, the Seahawks actually trailed at the half and were tied w/ just 16:30 to go in the game. Therefore, you might find it curious that Wagner is actually laying more points to the #2 seed than they were to the #6 seed.  But consider that Fairleigh Dickinson has actually been outscored over the course of the season!

I expect Wagner's defense to be a lot better here than it was it Saturday's semi, not to mention the two regular season meetings vs. FDU. I say that knowing full well that the underdog Knights come in as the highest scoring team in the NEC. They managed to shoot 46.8% from the floor and score 74 pts the last time these two teams met. And they still lost by 20 - at home! In the first meeting, FDU scored even more points (82, which matched a season high in pts allowed by Wagner) and that was on this floor. But note that game went into overtime and Wagner actually led by six with under two minutes to go. The Seahawks then uncharacteristically allowed three consecutive three pointers, including the GW w/ just 1.4 seconds remaining.  Both of FDU's wins in this tournament have been close games that could have gone either way. I see them getting blown out here. 8* Wagner

10* Under Coyotes/Avalanche (9:05 ET):  Arizona sure surprised the heck out of me on Saturday, beating Florida 5-1, as they'd scored only five times total in their previous four games combined! Of course, goaltending had also been a major concern out in the desert, so holding the Panthers to just one goal was equally surprising.  It was a seven-game losing streak they snapped with Saturday's win.   With Colorado, there have been similar issues in goal (5+ goals allowed in three of the last four games), but at the same time they've topped three themselves only once in the past 10 games. I expect this to be a low-scoring game and am on the Under.

The Avs have given up a ton of shots the last two games (40 each time), so it's a bit of a miracle that they were able to split the pair. They beat Florida Thursday, 3-2, but then fell at home to Nashville by a score of 5-2.  It's been Calvin Pickard in net for the last three games and while his numbers are solid, he struggled twice, giving up a total of 11 goals in two losses. Semyon Varlamov is still the #1 option here and he'll back tonight.  Do note that Pickard does not deserve as much blame as it might seem for the loss to Nashville as the Preds scored twice on an empty net to make that game appear more lopsided than it actually was. I think the time off will serve to help Varlamov, who stopped 26 of 28 shots the last time he faced Arizona, which turned out to be a 2-1 Colorado win. 

Arizona used a big third period to put away Florida Saturday night, scoring three times. I would not look for a repeat of that performance here. This team had scored two goals or fewer in six straight prior to that win (just eight goals total).  By the way, the Avs are 13-9 Under this season after allowing 4+ goals in the previous game.  As is the case w/ Colorado, Arizona's goaltending is set to improve over the short-term as it can't possibly be any worse than it was over the previous week.  Louis Dominique looked sharp against Florida and gets the start again here. One area that Arizona should not rely on is the power play as it is just 3 for its last 29 and Colorado has killed off 26 of the last 27 PP's they have faced. 10* Under Coyotes/Avalanche

5* Puck Line Calgary (9:05 ET):  Please note that this is a Puck Line play only where I am taking the Flames +1.5.  As I've said before, San Jose's road record is really impressive.  They are currently 23-9-3 away from home, easily the best mark in the league, but one has to wonder - how long can that last? Tonight seems like an easy two points, as they visit Calgary, but the Flames just won in Pittsburgh (4-2) and are due for a little "market correction" themselves, albeit in a positive manner after previously losing seven in a row. I look for the hosts to do no worse here than a one-goal loss.

This is the fifth meeting of the season between these Pacific Division rivals. Sure enough, the last two were both decided by one goal.  The road team won each time with their being a lot of goals scored despite one side (ironically, the LOSING side) having a distinct edge in shots both times.  Earlier in the year, San Jose lost here in Calgary, 4-2.  So their road success hasn't really translated all that much to this particular venue and it should be pointed out that the Flames do have a winning record here on home ice (17-14-1).

The Sharks have been involved in 11 games decided by one goal since January 7th. That's out of a possible 27 games, so the one goal margin is occurring almost 50% of the time for them.  Then you have Calgary, who have also been involved in 11 one-goal games since January 7th, out of a possible 26 games.   While the Flames may have the worst overall special teams in the entire league, for whatever reason their power play has found success against the Sharks, scoring on six out of a possible 15 chances. Also, San Jose goalie Martin Jones has a 3.25 goals against average his L4 starts vs. Calgary, so I think the home team can definitely get to him in this one.  5* Puck Line Calgary (+1.5)

8* Under E Tenn St/Chattanooga (9:00 ET):  This is the Final of the SoCon Tournament and the bracket has held "true to form" with the top two seeds meeting. Clearly, Chattanooga came in as the team to beat as the Mocs lost only five games in the regular season and went on the road to beat the likes of Dayton, Georgia and Illinois. That's really impressive, but as of late they have been on an ATS slide, failing to cover five in a row, including yday's narrow 73-69 win over Western Carolina where they were eight-point favorites.  East Tennessee State is a worthy adversary here as the Buccaneers have won seven straight and covered in the last six since losing to the Mocs back on February 13th. However, it's not the side that has me interested here, but rather the total as I expect a low-scoring affair in the third game in as many days for both teams. Take the Under.

  East Tenn State shot 54.2% from the field in last night's 84-76 win over Furman, including 8 for 15 from three-point range. Not to mention, they also made 24 of 27 free throw attempts.  I just can't see them matching those kind of numbers here.  While the Bucs definitely can score, this is the first time they've topped 80 points in consecutive games in two months.  Their last meeting with Chattanooga marked one of their lowest scoring efforts of the season (68 points) and they only had scored 43 with just under 11 minutes to go.  The Mocs are pretty strong defensively, holding teams to just 66.6 PPG. In 14 of their last 17 games, they've held the opponent below 70 points.

What about keeping UTC in check? Well, two nights ago, they scored only 59 points in a narrow win over Samford. They were lucky to hold the Bulldogs to just 18 points in the second half as it was a five-point deficit at the half.  For both teams here, this number is higher than the respective totals for yday's semifinal games. Because both went Over, we now have a little value to work with.  Four of the last five matchups have stayed Under the total, including the last one where the Mocs took a TON of free throws (31) and still lost. The first matchup went Over only because of a combined 23 made three-pointers, well above the combined season average. 8* Under East Tenn St/Chattanooga

    

10* New Orleans (8:05 ET):  This line has been doing some "funny things" ever since it opened. First, there was a move on New Orleans (from -1 to -1.5), but ever since money has come in on Sacramento who might end up closing as the favorite here. That's just fine by me as the Kings are one of those teams that I feel has been overvalued for much of this campaign.  Note that they have a losing (ATS) record in the chalk role (10-13-1) and on the road things get pretty ugly. Over the L3 seasons, they are just 1-7 ATS as road faves of three points or less (0-1 this year) and with a defense this bad (110.6 PPG allowed on the road), it's easy to understand why. The Pelicans do have a winning record at home, by the way.

Both of these teams are off losses on Saturday. Sacramento, predictably, fell in San Antonio 104-94, but actually did manage to cover (at +11.5) due to somewhat of a "back door scenario" where they outscored the Spurs 27-18 in the fourth quarter.  The final margin still has to be a little disappointing given that San Antonio rested three starters. Again though, the Kings are simply not a very good road team (11-20 SU) and defensively no team in the league allows more points per game. Tonight marks the end of a four-game, six day road trip. Fatigue could certainly be a factor and the fact is this team has covered only four of its last 13 games. They are 4-11 ATS when coming off a double digit loss this season.

New Orleans lost as a favorite, here at home, to Utah on Saturday night.  That game saw the Pelicans fall behind early, only to rally back in the third quarter and then fall apart again. More was lost than just the game, however, as the prognosis for PG Eric Gordon isn't looking good and this is already a banged up team. Still though, they have Anthony Davis, who is likely to improve upon his subpar shooting (11 of 31) from the last game. Going from Utah to Sacramento in terms of defense is "worlds apart" as the former is #2 in points allowed in the Western Conference while (as I already mentioned) the latter is #30 in the league.  The Pelicans have twice beaten the Kings comfortably this year, once w/o Davis.  10* New Orleans

8* Minnesota (7:05 ET):  Charlotte is a team that I've had ranked fairly high in my own personal power ratings for much of the year. Since January 22nd, they have the East's third best SU record (14-5) and that includes wins in nine of their last 11 games (won 4 straight).  But in this price range, I have to "back off" some. Yes, they did just record recent blowouts over both Phoenix and Philadelphia, but I'm still not convinced that this team is capable of those kind of performances on a consistent basis. They're much better suited as an underdog, in my estimation, as this year has seen them go just 1-3 against the spread as a home fave of -6.5 to -9 (4-8 ATS L3 years). While the Hornets have been scoring a lot recently, the T'wolves actually have been the more efficient of the two offenses this season and I'm going to take them plus the points here.

Minnesota is off its own big win, 132-118 over Brooklyn, as 9.5-point favorites Saturday night. They shot the ball at an astounding 68.4% clip, which is  not just the highest mark in franchise history, but also the highest we've seen in any NBA game since 1998! Now, clearly, we're going to have to deal with a decline in that department here.  But still, they have topped 100 pts in 11 of the past 13 games, a stretch that has seen them go a more than respectable 6-7 straight up. For whatever reason, this team tends to be much better on the road, at least from a pointspread perspective as they are 17-14 ATS. One reason for that is they tend to get a lot of points as the road team. Such is the case here.

Charlotte has beaten Minnesota three straight times, including a 104-95 win back in November. But the T'wolves were w/o both Andrew Wiggins and Ricky Rubio in that one. Wiggins, along with Karl-Anthony Towns and Zach LaVine have formed a nice little nucleus for a team still in rebuild mode.  They key here for Minnesota is going to be defense and thankfully Charlotte is only 10-11 straight up this year after topping 105 pts in its previous game.  I just get the sense that the Hornets are a little overvalued in this spot as we've already seen peak play from them over the past week or so. 8* Minnesota

10* North Dakota State (7:00 ET):  I'm going back to North Dakota State, who was a nice winner for me Sunday, beating IUPUI handily (60-45 as 5-pt chalk). As I mentioned in my analysis yday, the Bison are the top defensive team in the Summit League, a fact that will not be lost on tonight's opponent. IPFW, the top seed in this tournament, was held to season-lows of 46 points and 28.1% shooting the last time they faced NDSU and I'm proud to say that I was on the right side of that one as well. Though the Mastodons do have the edge of one extra day to prepare (their quarterfinal game was Saturday), I keep coming back to the fact that their ATS record (nation's best) of 21-6 is due to regress.  Take the points & I wouldn't be surprised to see an outright upset obviously.

What was a close game at the half yday was broken open by NDSU, who held IUPUI to just three made field goals over the final 16 minutes!  Again, just to rehash from yday's analysis, the Bison are holding opponents below 65 PPG for the year (top 25 nationally!).  Sunday's win improved them to 17-1 SU this season when holding the opposition under 70 points. Also, I'd like to reiterate that this team has won the Summit League Tournament each of the last two years. They do an excellent job of not fouling much (under 16 per game) and protecting the basketball (only 10 turnovers per game).  In the last meeting w/ IFPW, they held the Mastodons to just 9 of 32 shooting from two-point range!

IPFW has been quite lucky this year as they are 13-2 SU in games decided by six points or less.  Both losses came to rival IUPUI and I was on the last one, which was the regular season finale.  Yes, they "got me back" w/ an 86-70 win over South Dakota in the quarterfinals. But they were able to shoot better than 50% from the field there, including 12 made three-pointers.  I do not see a repeat of that taking place here. Even in their win over North Dakota State during the regular season (at home), they shot just 42.4% overall and won by only five.  They are actually favored by more here (in a neutral setting) than they were at home. That's a mistake by the linesmakers. 10* North Dakota State

10* North Dakota State (7:00 ET):  This is a quarterfinal matchup in the Summit League, which saw the top two seeds advance to the semis yesterday. This is the 4-5 matchup (winner moves on to play top seed IPFW) and perhaps you may find it curious that the lower seeded team is favored here. But IUPUI is by no means a strong team, so I can't say that I'm surprised at the number, even though I took the Jaguars last Saturday when they came away w/ an 80-77 upset of rival IPFW. But that was a home game and the fact is this team is still only 13-18 SU for the season, including just four wins away from home. I really like North Dakota State in this spot. Lay the short number.

Now, it was not a particularly strong end to the regular season for NDSU.  They did beat IUPUI, 63-59 here at home, but failed to cover as 6.5-point favorites. Then, they dropped B2B road games, first to Denver, then to South Dakota State. The Bison scored only 59 points in both games, which is well below their season average, and I see them bouncing back offensively here against a IUPUI team that has allowed five of its last six opponents to score at least 76 points. Also, remember that the Bison are two-time defending Summit League Tournament champions, so they know how to get the job done here in Sioux Falls.

While they did not cover either regular season matchup vs. IUPUI this year, note that they easily could have covered both.  They were in position for the win and cover back on January 31st in Indianapolis when the Jaguars' Jordan Pickett nailed a three-pointer w/ just 2.3 seconds remaining giving his team the 73-72 decision (as one-point dogs). Then, two weeks ago in Fargo, the Bison were up by as many as 15 in the second half before things got close at the end. I still believe in NDSU's defense, which was tops in the Summit League, holding teams to just 65 points per game (29th nationally). This team doesn't foul often (15.9 times per game) and takes good care of the basketball (just 10.6 turnovers per game) and the fact that IUPUI only averages 63.8 PPG away from home is great because the Bison are 16-1 SU this season when allowing fewer than 70 points! 10* North Dakota State

10* Detroit (6:05 ET):  The Pistons are off a pretty embarrassing loss last night. I know because I happened to be on the other side (Knicks), who beat them outright 102-89 as seven-point dogs. That result, combined w/ Chicago's win over Houston (which I was also on the right side of!) now has Detroit outside the top eight in the Eastern Conference (one-half game back of the Bulls). They can make up that discrepancy tonight though w/ a win over the Blazers, who have been hot recently, but also will be playing their sixth consecutive road game out East. They (Portland) got me last Sunday w/ an upset over Indiana, but they've had to play three times since then and it's fair to question what they have "left in the tank" for the final game of the trip.

I've said it before, but Detroit is not a good shooting team and that issue has hurt them in each of the last two games where they've been below 40% from the field. Of course, it hasn't helped that their opponents both shot above 50% as well.  I went against the Pistons both times (cashed the Spurs Wednesday, 97-81), so this is definitely "reversing course" for me. What's the difference? Well, it's pretty obvious. Now they're back at home where their record is a healthy 18-11 SU and 18-10-1 ATS. That's a far cry from 13-20 SU/ATS on the road and a big reason for that discrepancy is on the offensive end. They average 104.9 PPG here at home while shooting a more respectable 45% from the floor. It also bears mentioning that coming off an outright loss as a favorite, the Pistons are 10-2 ATS this season.

Portland had won 14 of 16 before dropping its last two, which is the first losing streak the team has been on in nearly two months. I realize a lot has changed since the early part of the season, but I can't help but go back to the fact the Blazers were only two-point favorites (at home) over Detroit in November and lost that game straight up. Given that result and the change in venue, it stands to reason that the Pistons should be favored by a greater margin this evening. My own personal power ratings suggest that they should be laying 2.5 points in this one, so there's some value right there and again this is Portland's sixth straight road game in a nine day span. 10* Detroit

10* Over Blackhawks/Red Wings (5:05 ET): This will be the second meeting this week between these two former division rivals. I had a big play on Wednesday's game, a 10* ~SIGNATURE~ Ultimate Power release on Chicago, which came through in 5-2 fashion. While this is a traditional home and home for Detroit (haven't played since), the Blackhawks unfortunately had to play another game in between (next night) and they lost in Boston, 4-2.  For them, that was the fifth time in the last seven games that the Over hit. While the Over has not been a particularly strong play in 'Hawks home games this year, I feel it is here given the high number of shots we saw in the last game vs. Detroit and recent form. Take the Over.

Red Wings fans will obviously want to point to the difference in Wednesday's game being the Blackhawks going on a 5 on 3 power play and scoring twice in less than 90 seconds. They do have a point, but unfortunately for them the fact is Chicago is 12 for its last 25 w/ the man advantage and isn't likely to slow down there anytime soon. Overall, they are third in the league on the power play (23.5 percent). One negative for this team moving forward, however, is that they've been a little bit "lucky" to get away with a .942 save percentage here at home. Opponents are averaging just 1.8 goals per game here at the "Madhouse on Madison" (despite 30.2 shots/game) and I'd expect that number to start going up moving forward. Goalie Corey Crawford's recent form hasn't been too good as he'd allowed three or more goals in five of six starts prior to facing Detroit Wednesday.

The Red Wings seem to be giving the opposition a lot of scoring chances recently as over the last five games, they've given up an average of 32.0 shots per game. That's been an issue for them all season on the road. These two combined for 66 shots on Wednesday (33 apiece). Though Detroit scored only twice, note that in the two games previous they had tallied eight goals and both of those were out on the road.  The Wings are 7-4 Over this season after allowing four or more goals the previous game. 10* Over Blackhawks/Red Wings

8* Under Holy Cross/Army (12:00 ET): This is the first of two Patriot League semifinals w/ the winner moving on to play the winner of American vs. Lehigh in the Championship Game on Wednesday (note: this tournament is really spread out!). The bracket has already been "busted" here w/ Holy Cross upsetting top seed Bucknell, whom they held to just 33.3 percent shooting on Thursday. Yet that game still went Over (due to double overtime!) and so too did Army's 79-72 win over Colgate. In fact, the last four times a total has been posted for an Army game, the Over has cashed. But w/ the stakes considerably higher now and this being Holy Cross' fourth game in eight days, I look for a different story to unfold (i.e. an Under) today.

Coming into this tournament, I identified Army as one of the potential "sleepers" as their conference record is a bit misleading. They finished only 9-9 (straight up) vs. the rest of the Patriot League, but were 3-6 SU w/o leading scorer Tanner Plomb, who is back now and averages a healthy 20.2 points per game. The Black Knights have won six of their last seven, the only loss coming to Lehigh, and they could very well get an opportunity for revenge in the Final.  As for this game, obviously, it is huge for the #4 seed to find itself having home court advantage in the semifinal.  Especially in this case as Holy Cross, a 41.3% shooting team overall, averages just 63.5 PPG on the road.

Neither regular season matchup between these two saw more than 140 total points scored.  The more recent meeting took place here in West Point w/ Army prevailing 72-68. It was also a four-point game at Holy Cross, that one seeing the Crusaders prevail 69-65. The key in both games is that neither side shot the ball well from three-point range.  HC went a combined 9 for 37 while Army was 11 for 39.  Those numbers are pretty well in line w/ overall season performance (HC a little lower). Again, you have to consider that it took two overtimes for Holy Cross' last game to go Over the total as it was just a 53-53 game at the end of regulation. Bucknell hoisted 39 three-pointers alone there, something HC won't be seeing from Army here. I look for a low-scoring game. 8* Under Holy Cross/Army

10* Over 1.5 Rounds Latifi vs. Villante (11:00 ET):  This is a three round, light-heavyweight (205 lbs) fight and with contrasting styles I'm calling for it to go longer than expected.  Latifi, win or lose (mostly it's been win of late), is someone who has had a lot of quick fights recently. In fact, his last five (4-1) have all ended in the first round!  His last was the shortest one yet as he knocked out Sean O'Connell in just thirty seconds. But Villante will certainly not go that quickly and with neither fighter possessing a strength that plays to the other's weakness, there's a good chance that this one might even make it to the judges.  Take the Over.

After fighting just one time in 2015, this is already Latifi's second fight of 2016.  His last two fights have both ended in under a minute and his last four have all ended before the halfway point of Round 1. That's why we're able to get such good value on the Over prop here and while recent history may suggest to go the other way, the fact is Latifi is "due" to start spending some more time in the cage.  Note that prior to this recent rash of quick fights, four of his previous five went to the cards.  Latifi's offense is almost entirely dependent on countering, meaning that unless his opponent makes a mistake, he doesn't have much to offer.

With Villante, his main problem has been dealing with good strikers. I don't think Latifi is the "man for the job" here as he does not have the kind of accuracy to take full advantage of Villante's weakness on defense.  If Villante fights a conservative fight here, which I believe he will, this could turn into two guys just standing and not doing much for a couple of rounds.  Villante's last two fights went quick, but before that four of six went to decision and another was 42 seconds away from doing the same.  His only loss in his last four fights (KO'd by Tom Lawlor) was a bit fluky and something I do not see happening here.  10* Over 1.5 Rounds Latifi vs. Villante

8* Florida (9:05 ET): The Panthers no longer have first place to themselves in the Atlantic as red hot Tampa Bay has caught them and both Floridian franchises are currently at 80 points. Third place Boston is only two points back. Of course, any Panthers fan would have gladly taken this situation at the start of the season as not much was expected from this perennial bottom-feeder. Speaking of bottom-feeders, I am going against Arizona here as the 'Yotes have dropped seven straight, most of them in blowout fashion. Look for another to be added to the list tonight.

For Florida, this is the end of a five-game trip. They've lost three of the previous four games, thus allowing the Lightning to catch them, but now it's time to "get real."  Losing two of three against the bottom of the Central is not great, but a loss at last place (in the Metro) Columbus was even worse.  But note that in their last home game, they beat who?  Arizona!  It's interesting to note that the game before that was a win over Winnipeg, then they were able to beat the Jets yet again, this time for the only win on this road trip.   Overall, the club is 18-12 SU this season when taking on a team with a losing record.

Arizona has been outscored 29-12 during its seven-game slide and the last two results have been downright ugly as they fell 6-0 at Pittsburgh and then 5-1 here at home to Anaheim.  Over their last five games, the Coyotes are actually being outscored by 2.8 goals per game, which is really difficult to "pull off."  They figure to not get many shot opportunities here as that's one thing Florida has done well of late (26.8 shots allowed L5 games). As far as goaltending is concerned, all of the 'Yotes options look pretty ugly.   Florida is currently 3rd in the league in goals allowed! I'll call for them (Panthers) to pick up a much needed two points here.  8* Florida

8* Chicago (8:35 ET):  My goodness, what has happened to Bulls under Fred Hoiberg?  The easy answer would be "injuries" as Joakim Noah (out for the season), Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler have all missed significant time.  The good news here is that it looks like Butler is probable to return (Rose is a definite) and that makes the team look like a really solid value in this price range against the disappointing Rockets. As upset as Chicago fans may be over the won-loss record, Houston fans have to be feeling a lot worse as their team is a game below .500 and in danger of not even making the playoffs in the top-heavy West. Their defense is downright disgraceful, particularly on the road, where they give up 109.1 points per game. 

After covering their first four games after the All-Star Break, Chicago has failed to cover its last four, failing to cover in each loss as well.  They lost 102-89 in Orlando Wednesday, shooting just 38.4% in the process.  Assuming Butler does return tonight, he would provide a massive lift offensively as he is the team leader w/ 22.4 points per game. He's also perhaps the team's best defender as well w/o Noah being out.  Defense has been the issue with Butler out as the Bulls last 15 opponents have all gone over 100 points.  I can say for certain that offense won't be an issue here against the defensively inept Rockets.

Houston had its troubles offensively on Wednesday, missing 32 of 35 three-point attempts! Yet, somehow, they still won at home over New Orleans, 100-95. That marked the first time in eight games that Houston allowed less than 100 points.  Like I said earlier and then reiterated, the Rockets are really bad defensively on the road, giving up 109.1 PPG.  In games where they allow 100 or more points, the Rockets are just 17-28 SU. Chicago comes in averaging 101.5 PPG on the season.  Overall, Houston has been one of the worst performing teams against the pointspread, going 26-35 ATS in all games.   8* Chicago

8* Virginia (8:30 ET):  This line caught me a little bit "off-guard" at first.  But then, I remembered two things.  The first is how Virginia completely destroyed Louisville in the first meeting, 63-47, holding the Cardinals to just 14 first half points! The second is that "this is it" for Louisville, the final game of the season, due to the self-imposed postseason bad. Motivation could really be lacking in this spot, especially after a narrow win in the final home game for the departing seniors earlier in the week.  The Cardinals simply aren't very good on the road to begin with (just 2-8 ATS), so visiting the team that handed them their worst loss of the season doesn't sound very promising.  Lay the points. 

Virginia has plenty of motivation here. The Cavs are gunning for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and a win here, plus losses by both Miami and North Carolina would give them a share of the ACC regular season crown. Miami visits Va Tech while UNC has to play at Duke, so by tip-off, there's a good chance the team will know its own fate.  UNC losing at Duke is a distinct possibility, leaving UVA the chance to "sneak up" at take second place in the conference at worst.  This is a team that's perfect (14-0) straight up at home this year and won 10 of its last 12.  The only two losses came by a total of four points. 

I mentioned earlier that Louisville hasn't been very good on the road this year. In addition to being just 2-8 ATS, they are 5-6 straight up.  Turns out that the easy non-conference sked (which included ZERO "true" road games) probably had the Cardinals overrated.  Obviously, the self-imposed ban has had a negative effect on the team, particularly the two who transferred here to compete for a National Title.  There have actually been some close games this year where Louisville didn't really play well and the result could have been worse. It's tough for me to say this, but I'm basically calling for a L'ville "no show" in this one.  8* Virginia

10* Iowa (8:00 ET):  Normally, I don't play road teams in College Hoops.  Just look at most team's records at home and compare them to the record on the road and you'll see why. But here, I make an exception. This is due to Iowa suffering a shocking four consecutive outright defeats, the most recent occurring at home against Indiana Tuesday night. Here, they travel to Ann Arbor to face a Michigan team that's also off a loss, one where they scored only 57 points against Wisconsin.  Iowa has already beaten the Wolverines once this season, 82-71 in Iowa City and while I may not necessarily disagree with this line, I do think desperation starts to set in with the Hawkeyes and they come through in a major way tonight.

Iowa was, at one point, 19-4 straight up and rated among the top ten teams in the country. No more as, like I said, the Hawkeyes have lost four in a row (all as favorites) and actually failed to cover six in a row. Their one win in the last six games was a narrow one against a poor Minnesota team.  It should be pointed out, however, that every loss has been close. In fact, three of the last four have come by four points or less. It's not like Michigan is playing well either as the Wolverines have dropped five of their last eight and three of four. The losses have been on the road, but earlier in the year they did lose here at home to both Indiana and Michigan State.

Probably, Iowa was not as good as it looked at the start of the season, which included a sweep of Michigan State. But they are not as bad as they looked of late either.  Similarly, Michigan started 17-5 SU overall including 7-2 in conference play before falling off. Most of Michigan's Big 10 wins have come against the sub-.500 teams as season sweeps of Minnesota and Penn State account for four wins, plus there was Illinois, Northwestern, Nebraska and hideous Rutgers.  Even at home, I do not see them beating a team the caliber of Iowa.  10* Iowa

10* Over Florida/Missouri (7:30 ET):  Recent Florida games have not lacked for scoring as each of the last three have gone Over the total, including Tuesday's crushing 88-79 loss to Kentucky. I use the term "crushing" because the Gators' NCAA Tournament hopes are now on life support due to four straight losses. They've allowed at least 87 pts in the last three. Considering their own 0-6 ATS record as a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, not to mention Missouri's 7-0 ATS run as a home dog in same price range, on paper, this clearly does not appear to be a great spot to take the Gators. But the Over is a strong play here as the Tigers have topped 70 points in seven of their last eight games. 

Missouri has also lost four straight games. They have allowed at least 80 pts in all four defeats. So we have two teams that are struggling defensively in this one and really Mizzou's struggles go back further than that as they've allowed 80+ in six of their last eight games as well.  Each of their last two opponents have shot better than 50% against them. But, overall, most teams are not shooting particularly lights out at their expense, so that means we're typically getting games with a high number of possessions.   Offensively, the Tigers have been nothing but remarkably consistent as in their last nine games they have scored somewhere between 69 and 75 points every time.

Prior to its last three games, Florida had three straight terrible shooting efforts. The last three games have seen their opponents all shoot at least 52% from the floor. Missouri may not be capable of shooting that well, but the Gators' own numbers should start to improve.  Though the last three meetings between these schools all stayed Under the total, this one promises to be played at a faster tempo and with both teams struggling to find their way defensively, it should be an easy Over.  10* Over Florida/Missouri

8* New York (7:05 ET):  It was another loss for the Knicks last night, although this one closer than expected as they fell 105-104 in Boston as 10-pt underdogs.  That was a pretty painful result considering they led by as many as eight in the fourth quarter, which was just a 17-point period for them. They've now dropped 12 out of their last 14 games to fall well out of contention in the Eastern Conference as they trail eighth place Detroit by seven full games (eight in the loss column) and that's who they'll play tonight, here at home.  Taking a more than generous number, I'll endorse New York as a home dog in this spot as my own personal power ratings indicate that this line should be much closer to a pick 'em.

The Pistons are also off a loss here, theirs coming Wednesday night in San Antonio by a score of 97-81. I was on the Spurs there, noting that Detroit was "in over its head" there even as a double digit dog. This is not a particularly great road team as is evident by their 13-19 SU record outside of the Motor City. They are being outscored by three points per game in such affairs and another issue I have with this team is their poor overall shooting as only the Lakers are worse in terms of "true shooting," which weighs free throws and three-pointers. For the season, they shoot just 42.5% on the road, so it should not be that big of a surprise that they are 0-3 ATS as a road favorite of -3.5 to -6 points.

If you want to talk line value, then consider that when these teams met just last month, Detroit was only a 4.5-point favorite - at home. They were asked to lay only 1.5 in their only other visit to the Big Apple this season - and lost! That loss dropped the Pistons to just 10-23 ATS their L33 games here at MSG.  The Knicks, who are now below .500 at home this year, do have a winning ATS record when taking points this season and it looks as if we've reached the point where clearly they are being undervalued (started the year surprisingly strong).  Playing the second of back to back games, they are 7-6 ATS this season. 8* New York

10* Indiana (7:05 ET): The Pacers didn't work out for me last night as they were outscored 28-19 in the fourth quarter by the red-hot Hornets and it was the first time in franchise history that they were swept in a season series by Charlotte.  Because they lost, it is a much better value tonight in D.C. and the Wizards team they are taking on here also happened to lose Friday, by 25 in Cleveland. I would not have Washington favored in this spot, even at home, as my own personal power ratings have this one basically a pick em due to the fact the Wiz are just a .500 proposition (straight up!) at home this season. Indiana is 24-13 ATS vs. the rest of the Eastern Conference and taking points they are a strong value.

The road team has won each of the two previous meetings these two have had. The first was here in Washington w/ the Pacers winning 123-106 (+3).  The Wizards then returned the favor in January, 118-104, but if you look at the seven-point line for that contest, it indicates that that the Wizards probably shouldn't be favored here, even as the home team. Again, they're only 16-16 SU at the Verizon Center due to giving up 103.9 points per game. The Pacers are 6-1 ATS their last seven visits here. 

With a visit to San Antonio on deck, followed by a two-game trip to Dallas and Atlanta, it is imperative that Indiana gets the win here.  They are currently only seventh in the East, just 1.5 games up on the 10th place Wizards, who have been the hotter team as of late.  But as good as the Wiz's recent record has been, consider that two of the wins were at Philadelphia's expense, another was against Minnesota and the other was vs. Cleveland when they didn't have LeBron. So take that four-game win streak w/ a grain of salt.  They are still just 2-6 ATS their last eight games vs. teams with a winning record.  10* Indiana

10* South Dakota (7:00 ET): I've been through this drill with IPFW (that's Indiana Purdue-Ft. Wayne) before, but in case this is your first time playing against them, I'll go through it again. The Mastodons have the best ATS record in the country (20-6 ATS), but lately (as you might expect) they've begun to regress. I first stepped out against them a few weeks ago when they visited North Dakota State and got blown out 62-46. They managed to get back on track after that, however (four straight wins), but then in the regular season finale I went against them again and they lost outright at rival IUPUI, 80-77.  This is a quarterfinal matchup in the Summit League Tournament and I'll take the 8-seed (plus the points) over the 1-seed. 

Note that I did play against South Dakota just last Saturday (went 2 for 2 in the Summit!) as they lost to Western Illinois.  Though South Dakota finished second to last in the Summit (9th place Western Illinois not in the tournament), there's an argument to be made that the Coyotes are better than that. There were four close losses by six points or less, two of them to two of the top three in the league. With the tournament taking place in South Dakota, that's a slight edge for the Coyotes here as well.

When a team is 20-6 against the spread like IPFW is, eventually the linesmakers are going to catch up. That's what I expect to happen here.  Note that they were NOT favored in the majority of their games this season. Clearly, the Mastodons are a team that overachieved and quite frankly they should feel lucky to be the top seed here as they won a tiebreaker over a much better South Dakota State team due to a head to head sweep of third place Omaha.  With a chance to sew up first place all to themselves, this team lost outright to a pretty bad IUPUI team last week and that's a telling sign for what lies ahead, in my opinion.  They have failed to cover two of the last three times they have been favored by at least six points, losing one of those games outright.  10* South Dakota

8* Brooklyn (9:05 ET):  It just so happens that the Lakers were the last opponent for both the Nets and Nuggets. Denver had the benefit of playing them second (when LA was w/o rest), thus they were able to prevail 117-107 despite not having leading scorer Danilo Gallinari in the lineup.  The previous night saw Brooklyn not be as fortunate as they lost 107-101 (actually closed as the favorite!) to the guys in purple and gold.  Interesting though is there the Nets were the ones that were unrested and that probably had an effect. They'd been on a four-game ATS win streak prior to the Lakers loss and while they were DD dogs in three of those games, the fact is I like them plus the points here as like Brooklyn, Denver isn't trustworthy as a favorite.

As a favorite, the Nuggets are only 3-6 ATS this year and that includes five outright losses.  Now, they did obviously just cover at the Lakers expense Tuesday night, but we've already been through how that was a beneficial spot against an unrested foe. More pertinent to this matchup is the fact that not only did they not cover as favorites in Brooklyn last month, but actually lost outright. Now, they were only -2.5 and the final score was 105-104. But, it still speaks to the fact that laying points with one of the worst teams in the league probably isn't a good idea, especially since this time they are w/o Gallinari. Denver is actually 0-3 ATS as a home favorite of -3.5 to -6 this year and that doesn't even include an outright loss (as 2.5-pt faves) to Sacramento here a little over a week ago. Curiously, despite the majority of tickets so far being written on the Nuggets, this number has come DOWN. You know what that means (smart money alert!).

The Nets have actually beaten the Nuggets four straight times.  While it was a close game last month, the last two meetings here in Denver were both blowouts as Brooklyn has prevailed by an average of 25.5 points per game.  That's pretty staggering. Sure, with this being the Nets' fifth straight road game, the natural inclination is to fade them, but that's hard to do here with Denver allowing an average of 111 PPG its last five home games. DJ Augustin is due to cool off for them. The Nets are a surprising 17-10 ATS vs. the Western Conference this season. 8* Brooklyn

9* Under Devils/Stars (8:35 ET): This is a battle of teams at the opposite ends of the scoring spectrum as New Jersey ranks dead last in the league in goals per game while Dallas is second overall. So, something has to give here and given the Stars' recent form, I'm willing to bet against them hitting their normal output. But that does not necessarily mean I don't think they'll win here. They're big favorites on the money line for a reason and that reason is the Devils are a team known for low-scoring games and obviously not putting the puck in the back of the net much themselves. Off a rare high-scoring affair last night, I look for this Devils game to stay Under the total. 

New Jersey had scored all of two goals during a three-game losing streak before breaking out for five in last night's OT win at Nashville.  Note that the primary reason for the Devils' low-scoring ways is that they are also last in the league in # of shot attempts per game. On the road, that number dips to 24.5, but last night they had an uncharacteristic 33 in the win over the Preds. Note that the team is 8-3 Under this year after ALLOWING four or more goals in its previous game this year. We should see Cory Schneider back between the pipes tonight (had last night off) and despite his recent shaky numbers,  a return to form has to be forthcoming considering his save percentage over the course of the season is .924 and even better on the road (.935) and against non-conference opponents (.937). His goals against average in his L5 starts vs. Dallas is 2.08.

The Stars haven't had that much difficulty scoring during a slide that has seen them drop seven of eight, including four in a row.  They've actually averaged more than three goals per game during that stretch, right in line w/ their season average. Therefore, it is obvious where the problem resides and it is in goal where they've allowed opponents to score a frightening 35 times during that same stretch. That average has to start coming down and as I went through before, the Devils are probably the perfect opponent for them right now. Remember, more often than not, the total for a New Jersey game is 4.5. So there's a tad bit of value here. 9* Under Devils/Stars

8* Boston (7:35 ET):  The Knicks have been a complete dumpster fire under Kurt Rambis as the team is now 2-11 straight up its last 13 games and they were just blown out (105-84) at home by Portland on Tuesday. We have Phil Jackson comparing Steph Curry to Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf and Carmelo Anthony directing chants of "refund" to owner James Dolan. So clearly whatever goodwill the team had built up during its surprisingly decent start to the season is now long gone and tonight I expect the struggles to continue. In many ways, the Knicks are a tailor-made opponent for the Celtics as games where the O/U line is 210+ points, the guys in green are a remarkable 13-3-1 ATS/15-2 SU and it's not just this year that they've excelled when the linesmakers think the game might be high-scoring. They're 24-6 ATS in that situation in three years under HC Brad Stevens. Lay the points here.

While New York may be floundering, Boston is surging thanks to four consecutive wins. Out of nowhere, this has become one of the better offensive teams in the entire league. They've topped 100 pts in 23 of the last 25 games, including Wednesday's 116-93 romp over the same Blazers team that had just blown out New York the previous night. Interestingly, one of the two games where the C's failed to score triple digits was against these Knicks. But they more than made up for it by allowing only 89 pts in what turned out to be an eight-point victory on the road. Considering they were laying 4.5 points in that game, the line should be higher here. Rarely are the Celtics asked to lay double digits (only twice against the Sixers), but keep in mind that only six teams in the league (Spurs, Warriors, Thunder, Clippers, Cavs and Raptors) are outscoring opponents by a wider margin per 100 possessions.

The only other time in the last 25 games that Boston was held below 100 pts was at Utah, who is one of the better defensive teams in the league. They just had a rematch with the Jazz Monday and hit the triple-digit benchmark right on the nose. Save for a win over Minnesota, the Knicks have been routinely torched defensively on the road and are giving up more than 105 PPG their L5 games overall. Meanwhile, Boston's defense has been great the L3 games and they've won 12 in a row here at home. 8* Boston

10* Under Austin Peay/Belmont (7:30 ET):  This is the first of two semifinal matchups in the OVC (Ohio Valley) Tournament tonight with the winner moving on to face the winner of Morehead State-Tenn Martin in tomorrow's final. Austin Peay is the surprise as the eighth seeded Governors have pulled B2B upsets to get here, beating Tennessee Tech and Tennessee State. Meanwhile, top-seeded Belmont had the luxury of the double-bye and the tournament taking place in Nashville favors them as well. So, clearly Austin Peay (playing its third game in as many nights) looks to be "up against it" here and you have to wonder if fatigue will start to set in. One thing I do know is that the Governors have been shooting the ball very well as of late and sooner rather than later, their offensive numbers are going to decline. I feel that happens here & I'm on the Under.

The Over is 9-1 in Austin Peay's last 10 games, but this is not just the highest O/U line for them during that stretch, but also the second highest for any game all season. The highest was a game vs. Eastern Kentucky back on January 2nd, a 79-70 loss, which stayed Under. Interestingly enough, that kicked off a streak of five straight Unders from the Governors. But lately things have changed. Tuesday saw the team score 92 pts in a romp over Tenn Tech, their most in any OVC Tourney game since 2000. But last night, as seven-point underdogs, beating Tennessee State was even more improbable as the Governors had to rally back from a double digit halftime deficit (scored only 27 pts in the 1H!). Five made free throws in the final 24 seconds helped to just barely push that one Over the total.

Belmont hasn't played in almost a week. With nothing at stake, the Bruins dropped their regular season finale 87-72 (to Tennessee State). This is the nation's 15th highest scoring team, but we know that they can hold Austin Peay in check as the lone regular season meeting was a 76-58 final that went Belmont's way. Interestingly, despite that game staying well Under the posted total, the O/U line for the rematch opened higher. That has everything to do with an Austin Peay team playing "over its head" right now. Belmont tightens the screws here and keeps this one Under the total. 10* Under Austin Peay/Belmont