10* San Francisco (10:15 ET):  There is no denying that the Cubs are a red-hot team right now. The won again in walk-off fashion Monday, beating the Indians 2-1 at Wrigley Field in a make-up game for an earlier rainout. No team has won more times in its final at-bat this season than have the Cubs, so while they are 20-4 their L24 games, you have to understand there's been quite the amount of good fortune coming their way this season, which is normally not what Cubs' fans have come to expect through the years.  Take for instance their 28-17 record in one run games, which is the best in all of baseball. While I expect most to be on them today, I think this shapes up as a really tough spot off the make-up game.

The Giants had Monday off and they needed it after playing both St. Louis and Pittsburgh, the two top teams in the National League, on the road.  They went just 2-5 in those seven games, but a return home is just what the doctor ordered as they've won 13 of their last 15 here at AT&T Park. A lineup that was largely held in check by the Cardinals' and Pirates' staffs has hit a collective .317 while averaging roughly 5.5 runs per game. This series is all about revenge for the reigning World Series Champs as they got swept in a four-game series at Wrigley earlier this month. I concede that the revenge angle has not been as strong as its been in recent years, but it's getting to be do or die time for the Giants, who now sit 6.5 games back of the Cubs for the final Wild Card and 1.5 games back of the first place Dodgers in the NL West.

Jake Arrieta has begun to get a lot of attention for the Cubs as he can become the first 16-game winner in all of MLB tonight.  The team has won each of his last five starts and in three of them he hasn't allowed a single run.  It might sound a bit daunting going against this particular pitcher, but I'd say he's due for a bad outing.  His team is also at an inherent disadvantage of having played Monday while the opponent was off.  The offense was held to just five hits yday afternoon as Indians starter Kluber was perfect through 5+ innings. Matt Cain, coming off a quality start against St. Louis, is more than capable of keeping the Cubs lineup in check.  10* San Francisco

10* Toronto (8:10 ET): Having made the case for the Blue Jays and their MLB-leading run differential (now +164, twice as much as all but one team!) during the first half of the season, I have to wonder why I haven't been playing them more often recently. When they lost at home to Kansas City back on Aug 1st, they fell to just one game above .500. Since that time, they have been absolutely on fire, winning 16 of 19 games, most recently sweeping a series on the road at Los Angeles where in three games they totaled 36 runs. This offense is just other-worldly right now and w/ veteran southpaw Mark Buehrle on the hill Tuesday, this looks like an awfully cheap asking price. I like the Jays in tonight's series opener.

Texas just took three of four on the road itself, but that was against Detroit, who simply isn't very good.  I don't know how they've done it, but the Rangers would currently be in the playoffs as a Wild Card team, five games above .500 despite having been outscored by 23 runs on the season. I remain skeptical of their chances moving forward. Here at home, they've allowed an average of over 5.0 rpg, an ominous sign w/ the best offense in baseball coming to town. Tuesday's starter Derek Holland is off his first full outing of the season after spending nearly four months on the disabled list. While he looked good last Wednesday, that was against Seattle, not Toronto. Yes, the team has won 9 of its last 11 games, but they also outscored the Tigers by just two runs in the last series and were actually outhit in every game! 

The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have needed no such luck as they are tied for first place in the A.L. East despite an awful 12-24 record in one-run games. You have to figure that record progresses to the mean down the stretch and that's a good sign come playoff time. A case can be made that this team should be the favorite to win the American League pennant as they're outscoring teams by 1.3 rpg for the year and have the win expectancy of a 79-win team. Buehrle had been quality in 12 of his 13 starts prior to the last time out, and should rebound tonight against a Rangers team he's dominated throughout his career. He's 14-5 (22 starts) all-time against them, including 3-0 w/ a 2.88 ERA his last six. Here in Arlington, he's 6-2 all-time w/ a 2.92 ERA.  Toronto is 12-4 the past three seasons vs. Texas and has won 12 of its last 14 games here in Arlington.  10* Toronto

8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET):  Minnesota just inexplicably swept a four-game set in Baltimore over the weekend, but as you might guess, there was some good fortune involved as the last three wins were all of the one-run variety and saw them rally in the late innings. Still having been outscored on the season, the Twins have just one winning month all year (went 20-7 in May) and despite what happened in the last series are just 10-12 here in August. They arrived in Baltimore having dropped 21 of 30 games overall. Now they move to face another AL East foe, Tampa Bay, who also has remained in the Wild Card race thanks to their ability to prevent runs (3rd fewest allowed in American League). I like the Rays in tonight's series opener.

Tampa had a three-game win streak snapped Sunday w/ an 8-2 loss in Oakland.  Interestingly, that was the first time in eight games that they'd been favored on the money line.  They are here too, obviously, but for good reason. Minnesota has been a drastic overachiever all season & that's why they're +14.20 units at the betting window, better than all but four teams in baseball. It was just one bad inning that sunk the Rays Sunday, a seven-run 7th, which as I alluded to earlier is atypical of this pitching staff.  Nate Karns will take the mound tonight and quietly he leads all A.L. starters w/ 18 outings of allowing 2 ER or less! Ten times he's allowed only three hits or fewer & that also leads all of MLB! In six starts since the All-Star Break, Karns is unbeaten w/ a 2.81 ERA. He allowed only one run over 6 IP his last time out.

The Twins counter w/ Ervin Santana and that's certainly not a good thing considering the right-handers' 9.56 ERA & 1.937 WHIP his L3 starts.  Santana was the one on the hill the last time the team lost, which was last Wednesday at Yankee Stadium where he allowed four runs over 7 2/3 innings. On the bright side, it did mark the first time in his last five starts where he finished w/ more K's than BB's. That game also marked the fifth straight time the Twins lost w/ Santana on the bump. In 14 career starts vs. Tampa Bay, he has a 4.98 ERA, which doesn't bode well either. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Arizona (10:10 ET): Going against the Cardinals? Seems pretty crazy, I know, but away from Busch Stadium they've just barely scraped out a profit (32-26 overall) and just dropped two of three in San Diego over the weekend. The offense has slowed down a bit in recent days, averaging just 3.3 runs per game their last seven w/ a .220 batting average. They did win yday, 10-3, but prior to that had been shut out twice in four games, including Saturday. They aren't nearly as good at run prevention on the road as they are at home and facing lefties, the team's record is not just barely above .500 this year, but the same over the L3 seasons as well. I look for the Diamondbacks to surprise here at home in the series opener.

Arizona has been pretty mediocre for much of the season, but has actually been much better than people realize of late.  They just swept a four-game series in Cincinnati over the weekend and going back a full month have the third most wins (18) in all of MLB. Quietly, they are more than alive in the NL West race, currently trailing the first place Dodgers by only five games. Their run differential of +40 is top five in the National League and says they are a better team than their 62-61 overall record shows. The lefty in question they have starting is Robbie Ray and while he's struggled of late, a lack of run support is what's really killed him. He comes off a quality start and I feel will be up to the challenge Monday night.

St. Louis counters w/ Lance Lynn, who has been stuck on nine wins and has a WHIP far worse than his ERA, typically a negative indicator. Over his L3 starts, Lynn has a 3.37 ERA, but a very poor 1.874 WHIP, which means he's been able to escape control issues w/ minimal damage. Sure enough, he walked five batters his last time out, a 2-0 loss to the Giants. He also walked four in a 6-0 win over lowly Milwaukee on August 7th.  In between, he had a start where he didn't walk anybody, but that's basically because he had no time to as he was bounce after just two-thirds of an inning after giving up seven runs (four unearned) to the Pirates. Look for the D'backs to exact revenge here for a prior three-game sweep in St. Louis back in May. 8* Arizona

8* Cincinnati (8:00 ET):  Tampa Bay lost its preseason opener, 26-16 at Minnesota as 3.5-point dogs. Granted, that was a bit of a tough spot for the Bucs as the Vikings were playing their second preseason game. But worrisome was TB's defense, which allowed 26 pts through three quarters (23 pts at halftime).  On offense, all eyes were on QB Jameis Winston (#1 overall DC), who after reportedly looking good all week in practice, really struggled in his first "real" pro game. He completed only 9 of 19 passes and threw an INT in addition to mishandling a pair of snaps that led to a loss of 19 yards. Also, the team couldn't run the ball to save its life, gaining just 89 yds on 26 carries. Overall, it was worrisome to lose a game handily where they had a 3-1 edge in TO's.

As for Cincinnati, they looked very impressive in a 23-10 win over the Giants. Much maligned QB Andy Dalton led the first team offense to a touchdown on the opening drive. The team finished the game w/ a monster 432-224 edge in total yardage and I believe that was the most yards gained by any team last week. That included 225 yds over land, so they appear to have a monster edge in that department. A glaring lack of pass rush for the Bucs will only make things easier for whomever is under center for the Bengals.  Dalton and the first-teamers will obviously be on the field longer this week. Behind him, AJ McCarron will see his first-ever NFL action.

The Bengals' defense was really impressive last week, especially in holding Eli Manning & the Giants' first team offense to no first downs in 14 minutes. Manning actually completed only one pass in the first two series for negative five yards. Only one of the Giants' plays on those two drives went for positive yards.  I expect Winston to struggle again tonight, under the bright lights. Really, given what we saw last week, I'm a little surprised Tampa Bay is favored here. Yes, they're at home, but the Bengals look like the much better value as the better team getting points. 8* Cincinnati

10* Over Pirates/Marlins (7:10 ET):  I feel that this shapes up as a much tougher spot for Wild Card leading Pittsburgh than most will think. They come off the Sunday night game, always a disadvantage when starting a new series Monday. While currently tied for the worst record in all of baseball, Miami is far more respectable here at home where they're closer to .500 as opposed to the road where they are 20 games under. Yet, the Fish did just embarrassingly drop three of four to the team they're now tied with, the Phillies, over the weekend. I concede that the revenge angle is not as strong as it's been in past seasons, so while Miami was swept by Pittsburgh the last time they played, I'm going in a different direction here.

Oddsmakers opened this total at 8.0 and quickly we saw high juice on the Over, raising the number to 8.5. I still think this is a great value though w/ the road team being favored, thus making it likely the Marlins will have to come up to bat one final time, in the bottom of the ninth. Those final three outs can many times be the difference between a game staying Under or going Over. Just look at last night when I had the Under in the Pirates' game vs. San Francisco. It was a 5-2 game heading into the ninth (total was 7.5) and by retiring the Giants in order, we avoided the potential disaster of playing the bottom of the ninth. In the earlier series these teams played back in May, all three games stayed Under, but a full inning and a half was shaved off those games because the home team (PIttsburgh) won.

Neither starting pitcher, JA Happ for Pittsburgh or Tom Koehler for Miami, inspires a lot of confidence here. Happ has seen each of his L3 starts stay Under the total, but he hasn't been very good on the road either w/ a 5.63 ERA and 1.469 WHIP this season. That includes time w/ Seattle, but note he also has yet to go past the six inning mark for the Pirates. Meanwhile, Koehler has been a disaster ever since the All-Star Break, posting a 7.48 ERA over his L5 starts, all losses. Last time out, he yielded seven runs over just 4 1/3 IP, not a good sign at all. Look for a high-scoring series opener tonight. 10* Over Pirates/Marlins

10* Atlanta (7:10 ET): There's little to look forward to this week at Turner Field as two of the worst teams in all of baseball meet. Both the Braves and Rockies were swept over the weekend, Colorado really letting me down as they had revenge against the Mets (from a prior sweep) and they couldn't even "cover" w/ the benefit of the run line, despite totaling 18 runs in the first two games.  Away from the confines of Coors Field, they are going to be in trouble, even though Atlanta has lost its last seven games and was swept by the Rockies right before the All-Star Break.  I realize the revenge angle hasn't been as strong in 2015 compared to previous years, but if there was ever a time for the Braves to pick up a win, it's here.

While somewhat respectable (at least offensively) at home, the Rockies are a disaster on the road where they are 16-37 L53 after surprisingly opening the season 6-0.  Sunday marked their 11th loss in the L13 games overall and as you might expect their offensive numbers dip significantly away from home, all the way down to just 3.5 runs per game w/ a .235 team batting average. They were held to just one run on four hits Sunday, not a good sign at all, and manager Walt Weiss went so far to question his club's "energy." On the mound, they'll start Jorge De La Rosa, who has a 6.57 ERA in six career starts vs. Atlanta and a walk rate of 4.34 per nine innings this season. In his last start, De La Rosa walked six batters, even though he was fortunate enough not to allow a single run over six innings. 

There aren't exactly a lot of positives to speak of w/ the Braves right now either, but at least they have Julio Teheran going on the bump tonight.  One of the team's few bright spots of late, Teheran has a 2.41 ERA and 0.911 WHIP his L3 starts, coming off a hard-luck no-decision his last time out as he allowed just a single run over 6 IP for the second straight start. He's allowed just seven hits total his L2 starts (14 K's) and has generally been a better pitcher at home this season w/ a 2.44 ERA and 1.009 WHIP here.  I do see the Braves getting revenge for the sweep earlier in the season tonight. 10* Atlanta

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10* Under Giants/Pirates (8:05 ET): Pittsburgh starter Francisco Liriano has two notable streaks on the line heading into Sunday's series finale w/ the Giants.  One is his 9-0 team start record the L9 starts. He should feel pretty fortunate to have that one going, however, considering his recent performances. The Over is now 6-0 his last six starts and while that was owed in part to a strong offense the first three games, the last three have seen Liriano post very subpar numbers, namely a 6.75 ERA and 1.750 WHIP. But even though the Giants' offense has been better than advertised much of the season, I see Liriano getting back on track tonight against a lineup that's scored just 2.7 rpg its last seven w/ a .228 batting average.

Last night saw the Bucs prevail 3-2 as San Francisco was held to just four hits for the entire game, which was won in walk-off fashion via a Starling Marte home run in the bottom of the ninth.  Interestingly, the Pirates themselves had only three hits for the game entering that final at-bat. They've been held to four or less runs in four straight games now, so betting on them to win this series seems a bit risky, especially w/ Giants starter Ryan Vogelsong coming off a very impressive outing, one where he held St. Louis scoreless for six innings, allowing just two hits, on Tuesday.  Therefore, my money is instead on the Under Sunday night.

All three of Pittsburgh's runs yday came on solo home runs.  That kind of good fortune simply cannot be counted on a day to day basis. The Giants, who have been held to eight or less hits in six of their past seven games, not only have to deal w/ Liriano, but a Pirates' bullpen which has posted a remarkable 0.82 ERA the L8 games.  Fortunately though, they have Vogelsong, who is holding opposing batters to a .196 average since rejoining the rotation. Visting teams are averaging just 3.3 rpg here at PNC Park this season w/ Pirates opponents batting a collective .211 the past seven games.  But the Giants' pitching staff has been even more impressive in that department w/ a .203 opponents' batting average.  Runs should be scarce in this one. 10* Under Giants/Pirates

10* Connecticut (6:05 ET):  These are the bottom two teams in the Eastern Conference. Despite a sub-.500 record, the Sun should certainly be favored by more at home, at least in my eyes.  It's a revenge spot from last week when they lost 90-77 in Atlanta and the teams will head there again Tuesday for a third meeting in a 10-day span. On a three-game losing streak, this is somewhat of a "must-win" for Connecticut, who are now three games back of fourth place, which is where they need to finish in order to make the playoffs. The Dream are just 3-10 SU on the road due in large part to them giving up an average of 86.3 points per game. They are getting way too much respect from the linesmakers here.

Before losing in Atlanta last Sunday, the Sun were 2-0 SU/ATS head to head vs. the Dream this season, winning outright as 11.5 (!) and 3.5 pt dogs. The combination of them not shooting the ball well last week (39.7 percent) and giving up 90 points was just too much to overcome though. They do now get to return home, where they've covered 11 of their last 16 games dating back to last season. Now the team is battling some injuries, most notably one to the ankle of second-leading scorer Alex Bentley, who had to leave early in Friday night's loss to Tulsa, which went to overtime.  However, Jennifer Lacy is picking up the pace by averaging 20.5 points the L2 games. Again, this is an opponent the Sun should be able to handle.

Atlanta has lost 13 of its last 16 trips to Connecticut, including an 82-64 loss here back in June.  Their road woes continued Friday w/ a 78-67 loss at New York as 9.5-point dogs. They shot a woeful 35.8 percent from the field, which was the fourth time in six games they were held below 40 percent shooting.  Overall, this team has just two wins in its last 10 games, so I just don't see how they can essentially be a "pick 'em" on the road. One bad quarter did Connecticut in Friday (outscored 25-7 in the third).  They are deserving of a favored status in this game and I see them winning w/ little difficulty.  10* Connecticut

8* Run Line Colorado (4:10 ET):  Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Rockies +1.5.  While compared to Baltimore, I didn't have nearly the high hopes for Colorado in this series, I did expect them to at least take a game as they too have revenge from an earlier season sweep. Yet, somehow, despite scoring 18 runs in two games, they've been unable to even cash on the run line. Of course, that "somehow" refers to their pitching, which continues to be dreadful, even against a Mets' lineup that came into the series ranked 30th (ie dead last) in all of MLB in team batting average. David Hale will have to be better today, but I haven't given up hope, plus the Rockies get a huge break Sunday in that the Mets have decided to skip Matt Harvey's scheduled start this afternoon.

The reason for Harvey not getting the baseball today is that he's already logged 154 innings this season and with the possibility of the playoffs growing stronger the organization doesn't want its top arms weary. The end result for today is that rookie Logan Varrett will be making his first big league start. Coors Field is obviously a tough place for that to occur seeing as the Rockies have no problem putting runs on the board here at home. They average 5.5 per game while batting a collective .302. With the benefit of an additional 1.5 runs coupled w/ this offense, the home team should be punching more winning tickets here in Denver.  Incredibly, they've now lost eight times this year when scoring at least eight runs. That simply should never happen.

So, can Hale slow down this Mets' offense? The visitors matched a season-high w/ 21 hits yday, 10 of them going for extra bases. Yesterday's starter, Chris Rusin, came in off his first career shutout, but was shelled. Hale, who will be making only his second start since coming off the disabled list, has no such accolade to speak of, so all I can say is that the Mets offense can't possibly continue to produce at the level we've seen the last two days.  Again, even if the Rockies would have allowed "just" 10 runs either of the last two days, the RL would make them a winner. 8* Run Line Colorado (+1.5)

8* Toronto (4:00 ET): In case you couldn't figure it out already, I continue to have a lesser regard for Ottawa (who is one year removed from expansion) than most.  I played against the Redblacks last week and the end result there was a 48-3 beatdown at the hands of Calgary. Despite a 4-3 SU record, they've actually been outscored by 64 points this season. While a great deal of that margin is owed to last week's result, consider that when they were 4-2 SU, they still had a negative scoring differential, which is telling. For the sake of comparison, 0-8 Saskatchewan has a -54 scoring differential this season. All but one of their wins have been by four points or less and to show what the oddsmakers think of them, they've been a dog in every game. I see another big loss coming to them Sunday, here in Toronto.

This is a pretty important contest for the Argos as its only their second of the season at home. They won the first, 30-26 over the Rough Riders, but were unable to cover a similarly large spread. They responded by beating Winnipeg on the road last week, 27-20 as five-point chalk, and now can stay in a first place tie w/ Hamilton w/ a win here. Sure, they gained only 243 total yards last week, but note their only two losses of the season are to the two division leaders, Calgary and Hamilton, both on the road. Yes, they trailed going into the fourth quarter last week, but I think they should have no problem moving the ball here against an Ottawa defense that has allowed 47 PPG its last two on the road.

The Redblacks gained just 162 total yards of offense and turned it over four times last week in a truly ugly performance. I always believed that they were a bit of a mirage in that I still have them rated as the worst team in the league coming into this week. In the first half last week, they gained only four yards rushing and had just six first downs.  I see their regression continuing this week w/ another blowout loss.  8* Toronto

8* Baltimore (1:35 ET):  One team sweeping another two straight times has been pretty rare through the years in MLB. Unfortunately, this season has seen that notion take a bit of a hit and it's hurt me. Here, the Orioles are on the verge of suffering two unusual fates. One is getting swept in the season series by an inferior Twins team. Currently, Minnesota is 6-0 head to head in the season series. The other would be getting swept in a four-game set here at home, something you also don't see happen very often across baseball. I just cannot see it happening, especially with Kevin Gausman on the hill for the O's, who have suffered B2B frustrating one-run losses here after being blown out in the opener. I'm sticking with them though and feel they break through on Sunday.

Making this series all the more frustrating (I've been on Baltimore all three games) is that coming in I felt it was they who had an excellent chance at sweeping. They not only had revenge, but the homefield advantage as well and it needs to be stated that despite what's happened so far this weekend, the Orioles still have a 37-24 record at Camden Yards while the Twins are just 24-37 on the road. Minnesota came into this series having dropped 21 of its last 30 games and has just one winning month all season (20-7 May). Despite nearly identical records overall, Baltimore has a much better YTD run differential (+55 to -17) and that's typically a very good predictor of future outcomes.

A Baltimore offense which ranks in the top 10 in runs scored and top five in slugging has been shockingly quiet in this series, scoring just seven runs total off what was though to be a very suspect Minnesota pitching staff.  Perhaps we should expect a breakout performance today though, considering the O's are averaging 5.1 runs in day games this season. Twins starter Mike Pelfrey has generally been terrible on the road w/ a 6.02 ERA and 1.810 WHIP in 12 outings.  Meanwhile, Gausman has a 1.67 ERA and 0.889 WHIP here at home. In each of the last two games, the Orioles have blown a late lead. I just can't see them getting swept. 8* Baltimore

8* Under Indians/Yankees (1:05 ET): The oddsmakers really didn't want to move this line off the key number of 9, but their collective hand was forced w/ a large influx of money on the Under.  I'll take that to be the so-called "smart money" and really given the level of scoring we've seen so far in this series, I see no reason why we shouldn't be expecting an Under in this situation. The total here is higher here than its been for any of the three previous contests, two of those seeing eight or less total runs scored. Saturday saw the Yankees win 6-2 as Cleveland finished w/ only six hits. That's after the Indians held the Pinstripes to a total five runs and 13 hits the first two games. Both starting pitchers have had their struggles this season, but I expect them to be in top form this afternoon. Take the Under.

These teams have become quite familiar w/ one another as this will be the seventh meeting in the last two weeks. Only two prior have seen more than nine total runs scored. One of those was when Trevor Bauer was on the mound for Cleveland as he was tagged for six runs and seven hits in just 3 2/3 innings. Sadly, he was no better his last time out, giving up five runs in just 1 2/3 IP. But those performances are not indicative of the kind of pitcher Bauer is as he owns a 2.97 ERA in 10 road starts w/ the Under going 9-1 in those contests. Five times in his last seven starts overall, the Indians' offense has supplied him w/ exactly one run of support. Something to keep in mind is that only two runs were scored after the second inning of last night's game.

CC Sabathia is having a bad year for the Yankees and personally I'd leave him out of the playoff rotation. But he's always seemed to have his former team's number, at least recently, going 3-1 w/ a 2.15 ERA his last four times against them. Earlier this month, he gave up just two runs in six innings of work. Like Bauer, Sabathia has been dogged by poor run support in the second half as he's received exactly one run of support in five of his last six starts. But good for him and the Yankees is the fact Cleveland comes into this game batting only .237 its last seven games while averaging just 3.7 runs per. 8* Under Indians/Yankees

10* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): While ultimately there's little evidence that these games have any real predictive value for the regular season, I would gather that the Steelers are feeling pretty desperate for a win going into Sunday afternoon. Having taken part in the Hall of Fame Game, they should have a "leg up" on the competition as they'll always have an additional game under their belt compared to the opponent. But, the Black and Gold were unable to hold on last week in Jacksonville, thus dropping to 0-2 this preseason. Here, they'll be at home for the first time (motivation!), hosting Green Bay, who won last week on the road against a sloppy New England team, 22-11. Judging by the line move, the public has chosen to throw its support behind the Packers in this one and the result of that is Pittsburgh being undervalued. Lay the points.

The Steelers looked a lot better last week than they did in the HOF Game, which was to be expected given the actual first team offense saw playing time.  Ben Roethlisberger marched the starters down the field on the opening drive, needing only six plays to score a TD. Behind Big Ben, backup Landry Jones has gotten a ton of playing time, so he should be more effective in these final weeks of preseason.  Rookie WR Sammie Coates also looked good, hauling in five passes for 52 yds. Defensively, I think its key for the Steelers to put pressure on Aaron Rodgers as that could cut his playing time short. After allowing the GW touchdown w/ less than three minutes to go last week, that unit should come out inspired.

Rodgers will likely play almost a half here for Green Bay, but the same holds true for Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh's first teamers. Keep in mind that Big Ben has been on the field for all of one series this preseason and it resulted in a touchdown. With the Packers, there are concerns how their young cornerbacks will match up with the speedy Steeler receivers, plus a key injury along the offensive line (LT) is worrisome. That's where Pittsburgh needs to target in an effort to get Rodgers out of the game as early as possible. Because they've already played twice, the Steelers will be much stiffer competition than the Patriots were last week. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Arizona (10:00 ET):  This will be the Cardinals final chance to win in front of the home folk as they lost their preseason opener last week, 34-19 to Kansas City here in Glendale. Home teams have generally been 'taking care of business' this preseason, which is to be expected given the general lack of motivation for these games. Playing in front of your own fans often times is motivation enough for teams. It didn't work that way for Arizona last week, but dropping B2B home games seems out of the question. Granted, Cleveland just did, but the Browns are obviously terrible.  The line, still available at less than a field goal, seems optimal as well.

Of note is that Arizona did jump out to an early 10-0 lead on the Chiefs last week. The really good news is that QB Carson Palmer, whose 2014 season ended w/ a torn ACL last November, looked outstanding in his return. He completed all four pass attempts, for 77 yards, and led the first team offense into the end zone in his only drive.  The problem was Kansas City would go on a 31-0 run with reserves in on both sides. Chiefs backup QB Chase Daniel played somewhat out of his mind. Fortunately for tonight, we don't have to worry about anything similar coming from the Chargers, who scored only three second half points in their 17-7 win over the Cowboys last week. Behind Philip Rivers, San Diego's other QB's are Kellen Clemens and Brad Sorensen, neither of whom is anything to worry about.

The Chargers only gained 199 total yds last week, including just 64 through the air.  The strength of Arizona is its defense and Tyron Matthieu, who intercepted a pass last week, has looked outstanding so far in training camp. Again, you can pretty much ignore last week's total yardage allowed to the Chiefs because it was an outlier w/ reserves on the field. Starters will play more tonight.  San Diego averaged just 3.8 yards per play last week, a full yard less than what Arizona's offense averaged. I imagine that the final result here will matter more to the Cardinals. 8* Arizona

8* Run Line Colorado (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rockies +1.5. Well, in yday's analysis I postulated that the home team's strong offense coupled w/ the benefit of an additional +1.5 runs would be too much for the Mets to overcome. Sure enough, Colorado scored nine runs, which is what I was looking for and if you told me beforehand that they'd cross the plate that many times, I'd all but guarantee victory. Sadly, it was not to be however, as the Mets scored 14 runs, just the sixth time all season they finished in double digits. It was a five homer game, three of them coming from Yoenis Cespedes, one of which was a grand slam. I just can't see the Mets offense being as prolific tonight.

Colorado is now 0-5 this season vs. the Mets w/ all of the losses coming by two more runs.  Make no mistake about it, the Rockies are a bad team, but here at home they're at least respectable. They average 5.5 runs per game at Coors Field while the team batting average is .301. Offense clearly wasn't a problem last night as they were able to rally back from an early 7-1 deficit, even taking the lead at one point. They had eight extra base hits in the game as well. Thus, getting an additional 1.5 runs to work with seems like a "no brainer" to me. Considering where the money line is at for tonight's matchup, the juice required to play the RL seems relatively cheap by comparison. The Rockies are 12-10 this season as a home dog of +100 to +125.

The issue, as its always been for Colorado, is pitching. Tonight though, they will send Chris Rusin to the mound and he's been very effective of late. Just 11 days ago, he held the Mets to only one run over six innings. Unfortunately for him, the offense forgot to score. But Rusin then took care of that problem by tossing a complete game shutout his last time out, holding San Diego to just five hits here at Coors. The Mets offense, while much better since acquiring Cespedes, still ranks dead last in baseball in team batting average (.236). So, again, a repeat of last night is unlikely. Their starter, Jon Niese, has a 6.75 career ERA here in Denver.  8* Run Line Colorado (+1.5)

10* Under Bears/Colts (7:30 ET): Turnovers were the story for both of these teams in their respective preseason openers, albeit in very different manners.  Chicago, who I was on, benefited from four costly Dolphins mistakes and won 27-10 in new HC John Fox's home debut.  The Colts unfortunately turned the ball over four times themselves in an ugly 36-10 loss to Philadelphia Sunday. Assuming we don't have the same number of mistakes here, I envision less total scoring than we saw in both teams' games last week. That has me on the Under here as the number, particularly in the Bears' case, is inflated. These teams have also been practicing w/ one another over the L3 days, so there's a sense of familiarity.

While the Colts are healthier going into this game than they were last week vs. the Eagles, issues still remain.  Their offense line didn't play well Sunday as the team averaged just 3.6 yards per carry. No longer do they have Trent Richardson to blame for that. Depth on the line, both offensive and defensive, is a concern as well. That being said, I don't expect them to give up 400+ yards again like they did last week to the Eagles. Chicago doesn't have the QB depth to make that happen. Neither Jay Cutler nor Jimmy Claussen was said to look very good in practice this week. The Bears offense scored only three points in the first half last week and didn't get its first touchdown until late in the third quarter and that drive was setup by a Dolphins turnover. So too was a fourth quarter field goal.  Bottom line is that Chicago can't count on another late flurry of scoring from their backups. It also doesn't help that both of their projected starting wide receivers are out tonight.

The Bears' defense is the bigger concern coming into the year, but the good news here is that after allowing a TD on Miami's opening drive last week, they allowed only a field goal the rest of the way. The Colts' impressive looking time of possession from last week (over 36 minutes) was not indicative of any kind of dominance, but rather it had to do w/ the opponent, who under Chip Kelly plays at the fastest pace in the entire league. Indy also allowed a special teams TD last week (punt return), another miscue that if corrected (likely) will result in less scoring. 10* Under Bears/Colts

10* Houston (7:10 ET): All things considered, I think that this is an incredible price on the Astros at home. ICYMI, Michael Fiers no-hit the Dodgers last night in a 3-0 win. Now, LA is 6-2 this season coming off a shutout loss, and we will have to deal w/ Zack Greinke, but this game is still taking place at Minute Maid Park where the Astros are 43-21. In all of baseball, only St. Louis has a better home record.  The Dodgers, meanwhile, have a losing road record and when Greinke does struggle, it's almost always away from home. The last three times the team has lost a Greinke start have all been on the road and his only two non-quality starts since the beginning of June have been on the road. Go w/ the home underdog here.

Now, make no mistake about it; Greinke is awesome. The owner of MLB's lowest ERA (1.58), he's the current favorite to bag the NL Cy Young, an honor that went to his teammate Clayton Kershaw last season. But how many times can these two continue to bail out a team w/ obvious flaws? The Dodgers simply don't beat good teams & they are just 25-34 on the road this season. They are just 2-8 head to head vs. the two .600 or better teams in the National League (Cards, Pirates) & don't forget their 3-9 record vs. the Giants either. Last night, their high-priced lineup was no-hit by a pitcher who came in w/ a 22-28 career record and had never previously pitched into the ninth inning. It was their third straight loss out on the Interleague road.

Houston is proving it can win w/o scoring many runs, which they'll likely have to do here. They've allowed just five runs total the last four games, the only loss during that time being a 1-0 final, and they too will have a strong arm on the bump this evening in the form of Scott Kazmir. In fact, one could make the argument that this is the best pitching matchup of the weekend in all of MLB. Kazmir was admittedly roughed up his last time out, and has suffered through some hard-luck since coming over from Oakland. But the bottom line is that his ERA/WHIP remain a very solid 2.43/1.121 in 23 starts this season and at home those numbers dip down to 1.82/0.987. He's due for a win & this is just a great price on the Astros at home. 10* Houston

8* Baltimore (7:05 ET):  OK, I'm getting a bit angry now. On paper, this series seemed to be tailor-made for the Orioles to "take care of business" as they came in not only w/ revenge (swept by Twins last month), but having won five of six as well while Minnesota had just gotten swept in New York. Also, the O's have a strong home field advantage as is evident by their 37-23 record here at Camden Yards. Meanwhile, the Twins are still only 23-37 on the road and that's after surprisingly taking the first two games of this four-game set. Both teams got a gift last night in that the Angels lost, so the Wild Card race is now as tight as ever. For Baltimore though, it's getting to be desperation time as they absolutely cannot afford to drop a third straight game here at home to the Twins.

Thursday's opener was a real head-scratcher as Minnesota came in and won 15-2, following a long rain delay. Last night was much closer, but no less frustrating. You might recall that I previously wrote about Baltimore's late inning dominance, owed to their strong bullpen. They came into this series 51-1 when leading after seven innings, but now you can make that 51-2 after All-Star setup man Darren O'Day (who previously hadn't allowed a single run in his L11 appearances) came in and shockingly gave up three runs in the 8th last night. The Orioles are now 0-5 this year vs. Minnesota, which makes little sense as I think most, myself included, would rank them as a significantly better overall ball club. They've outscored opponents by 53 runs this season while the Twins are at a -16 run differential and have just one winning month all season.

With its bullpen surprisingly regressing at the worst possible time, the Orioles will have to lean heavily on starter Chris Tillman tonight. Fortunately, he's 4-0 w/ a 2.13 ERA since June 28th over eight starts, seven times allowing 2 ER or less. Last time out, he allowed only three hits over seven innings. Though two were solo home runs, the O's still beat Oakland 4-2. Tillman will face off here against Kyle Gibson, who has a terrible 9.19 ERA and 1.787 WHIP his L3 outings after getting shelled Monday at Yankee Stadium.  The home team needs this one. 8* Baltimore

10* Over Sparks/Mercury (10:05 ET): This looks like a really good value on the Over in the wake of some uncharacteristic low-scoring from both sides of late. Phoenix is 4-0-1 Under its last five games and 16-8 Under for the year, which seems odd given what we saw from them last season. They are off back to back dismal shooting performances (43 of 120 overall) in outright losses to Indiana and Tulsa.  Considering they're at 44.6% for the year at home, we should see improvement tonight.  As for Los Angeles, their string of impressive efforts at the defensive end probably cannot be maintained as four of their last five opponents have shot below 40% from the field. For both teams, this is a low total.  Take the Under.

This will be the third matchup of the season between these two Western Conference rivals. The last two both took place in LA and the first went Over. While there was overtime in that one, the game actually went Over the total (155.5) in regulation, quite easily, as only 15 total pts were scored in the extra period. The last meeting wasn't nearly as high scoring (70-65 Sparks' win), but as you can see there's been a significant decrease in the O/U line comparing the first game to tonight's.  That screams value to me as the Mercury are due to turn things around offensively following the B2B poor shooting efforts. Remember that this is a team that led the league in scoring last season at 83.5 PPG. At home this year, they're at 78.8 PPG.

The Sparks have struggled on the road this season and a big reason for that is they're allowing more than 78 PPG in those 11 contests (2-9 straight up).  On Tuesday, they gave up 79 pts in a DD home loss to Indiana.  They also only managed just one basket themselves over the game's final four minutes. It was a tale of two halves as they scored 44 pts in the first half, but gave up 49 in the second.  The O/U line here is well below their season average as is the case for Phoenix as well.  Last time out, the Mercury scored their fewest points since Brittney Griner's first game back. The likelihood of Griner & DeWanna Bonner combining to shoot 6 of 23 from the field again (like they did last game) is minimal. 10* Over Sparks/Mercury

8* Run Line Colorado (8:40 ET):  Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Rockies +1.5.  The Rocks surprised me last night, beating Washington 3-2, so despite the inherent disadvantage of facing a Mets team that had the day off, I'm far more amenable to backing them in this situation. They do get to stay at home, where the offense averages a strong 5.4 runs per game (.300 BA!), and the Mets are a lousy 22-35 on the road this season. With that kind of offensive production, the run line becomes all the more attractive and appears to be a pretty "sweet deal" here considering the money line is almost even for this series opener. Colorado also has revenge after being swept at Citi Field earlier this month.

It was a four-game sweep by the Mets in Queens and in two of the games they shut the Rockies out. Three times in the series the Mets were a $2.00 favorite or higher, so it's hard to say the end result was very surprising.  But with the scene now shifting to Coors Field, I look for some different results. Might it actually be the Rockies getting a strong pitching performance tonight? Don't laugh as starter Jon Gray has a hard luck 0-3 TSR in spite of a 2.40 ERA and 0.933 WHIP. One of those did come in the prior series vs. the Mets, who he held to just one hit, a home run, over six innings in what was the closest game of the entire weekend. He allowed just one run in his last start as well.

I still believe that the Mets' road woes are cause for concern.  They have beaten the Rockies seven straight times, but all were at Citi Field.  They've dropped six of their last eight here in Denver where the Rockies have no problem scoring, so giving them an additional 1.5 runs to work with sounds solid. Bartolo Colon has a 5.03 ERA in his 11 road starts this season, not good, nor is his 7.71 career ERA here at Coors.  Overall, the Mets have lost nine of Colon's last 10 starts with the portly right-hander turning in a subpar 4.83 ERA during that time. I don't think the Mets will be able to score enough runs here.  8* Run Line Colorado (+1.5)

8* Washington (8:35 ET):  The underdog Mystics are off a home and home sweep of the league's best team, Minnesota, and thus are undervalued for this Eastern Conference showdown w/ Chicago.  The host Sky, just 3-8 ATS their L11 games overall, are off a SU loss in Los Angeles five days ago by a score of 76-64. With the exception of a win over lowly Seattle last week, the Sky have seen their scoring decrease pretty dramatically over the last five games (71.6 points per game) and that trend should continue here against a Washington team that ranks second in points allowed (70.8) in the league. This will be the Mystics' third and final visit to the Windy City this season and after the second went much better than the first (still lost SU, but covered), they are poised to break though tonight. Take the points.

Washington, 9-3 ATS its L12 games overall, was blown out here at the AllState Arena back on July 15th, losing 85-57.  The final result was much closer earlier this month as the Sky still won, but this time by only three points. The Mystics have not shot the ball well in either visit to Chicago thus far, just 34% overall, which is odd considering the Sky are not noted for their defensive prowess. In fact, they allow the second most points per game in the league at 80.0. Offensively, despite the individual efforts of Ellena Delle Donna, Chicago has been held under 65 pts in three of its past five games. They allowed LA to shoot 48.4 percent last game and trailed by as many as 21 points.

Washington has been outstanding as an underdog this season, covering five of six games in that role this season, including all four since the 1st loss in Chicago w/ three outright upsets. That includes a pair the L2 games, the home and home sweep of Minnesota. Beating the Lynx by 18, on the road, is no small feat. They held Maya Moore to only 10 points for the game, including two in the first half. Three-point shooting could be another significant edge for the Mystics in this one as they're making 35.7 percent from behind the arc for the year. Surprisingly, Chicago is at only 31.1 percent (2nd worst in the league) despite leading the league in overall scoring average. Already one game up on the Sky in the standings, the Mystics are undervalued here. 8* Washington

10* NY Jets (7:30 ET):  Home teams have generally taken care of business thus far in the preseason, going 11-6 straight up. That makes sense considering playing in front of one's own fans for the first time can be motivation enough in games where overall motivation is lacking. This will be home game #1 for the Jets, who have already had a tumultuous training camp as is (QB Geno Smith jaw broken by former teammate) and their first real action wasn't any better as they got blown out 23-3 in Detroit last Thursday, gaining all of 123 total yds in the process. As a result, I expect an inspired performance tonight for 1st year HC Todd Bowles, who will be making his home debut. Twice last week I took a coach in his first home game - Chicago's John Fox & Oakland's Jack Del Rio - and both cashed easily.

Atlanta is coming off a win for its own 1st year head coach, Dan Quinn, the former DC in Seattle.  That didn't surprise me, though they were outgained in the 31-24 (-3) win over Tennessee. Three turnovers greatly aided the Falcons' cause w/ two of them coming from rookie QB Marcus Mariota and one was directly converted into points (fumble return for TD). The game was 17-0 after the first quarter, but Atlanta actually still needed a late TD to pull out the SU win. Even w/ Quinn's resume, I have concerns about this Falcons' defense heading into the season as he doesn't have anywhere near the same level of talent he had to work w/ in Seattle. On the other side of the ball, the offensive line may very well struggle here (Jets' defensive front very good) plus backup QB TJ Yates was pretty terrible last week. A lack of a legitimate backup QB behind Matt Ryan is what has severely hurt Atlanta in past preseasons.

No 1st year HC wants to lose the first game in front of the home fans. We already know they were 3-1 SU/ATS last week, the one loss coming from Rex Ryan, by a single point. The Jets are also one of the few teams to have a legit QB competition in play, so I expect better play out of that position this week, whether its veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick or rookie Bryce Petty.  Fitzpatrick is expected to play most, if not all, of the first half, which is good considering it will be the third straight preseason he's faced the Falcons. Meanwhile, Atlanta may rest both of its top running backs here.  10* NY Jets

10* Under Brewers/Nationals (7:05 ET): It's getting to be panic time in the Beltway as the Nationals blew a golden opportunity to pick up a half-game on the first place Mets last night, instead losing 3-2 in Colorado. In both wins in that series, the Nats feasted on the Colorado bullpen, a luxury they simply cannot count on a daily basis and last night's effort at the plate (only four hits) was simply unacceptable given the venue. While still one of the top five Over teams in all of baseball, Washington's home games tend to be more low scoring as they average just 3.9 runs per game in them and tonight's starter Gio Gonzalez tends to pitch much better here in D.C. as well.  Thus, I'm on the Under in the series opener w/ MIlwaukee.

Gonzalez struggled his last time out, giving up six runs in just 2 2/3 innings, but that was on the road at San Francisco and he was a little unlucky in the sense that six of the seven baserunners he allowed, scored.  Here at home, he has a 7-2 team start record to go along w/ a 2.60 ERA and 1.283 WHIP.  Each of his last three starts have gone Over, but that's somewhat misleading in the sense that one of those saw the bullpen fail him. Two starts ago, he tossed eight shutout innings at Dodgers Stadium. At the time, it was his eighth consecutive start allowing 2 ER or less, a stretch that saw him go 5-0 w/ a 1.48 ERA.  Gonzalez also hasn't allowed a home run his L6 starts. A Milwaukee lineup that ranks in the bottom third in baseball in runs scored, OBP and slugging should not be much of a problem for him, especially considering the Brew Crew have averaged just 2.0 rpg their L11 on the road. 

Milwaukee, looking to play spoiler here, will counter w/ Jimmy Nelson, who is one of the organization's promising arms. Over his L3 starts, Nelson has a 0.934 WHIP and there have been four times since July 10th where he hasn't allowed a single run. His last time out, he walked away w/ a no decision despite a quality start that saw him allow just two runs on five hits over 6 2/3 IP.  He now has a 39-12 KW ratio his last six starts overall to go along w/ a 1.99 ERA. Still, the home team being favored (no bottom of the ninth?) w/ the extra half-run to work with (remember, 7 is such a key number in betting baseball totals), gives the Under a big edge here. 10* Under Brewers/Nationals

8* Baltimore (7:05 ET): I cannot even begin to fathom what happened to the Orioles last night, that being a 15-2 loss at home to the previously struggling Twins. Perhaps a long rain delay (2.5 hours) can be blamed as starter Miguel Gonzalez did not look good right off the bat, giving up five runs in the second inning en route to allowing his most (7) in any start all season. Consider that over his previous five outings, Gonzalez had allowed just 22 ER in 25 1/3 IP.  It was Minnesota's highest scoring game of the season and the most runs allowed by Baltimore since allowing 19 back in 2012, to the Twins ironically enough. But whatever the reason for last night's debacle, I expect the O's to bounce back in a major way this evening.

I'm just going to rehash much of what I said in yday's analysis as I feel it still applies today. Baltimore came into this series having won five of six overall and remains a strong 37-22 here at Camden Yards this season. They were a perfect 8-0 here, before yday, as a ML favorite in the -150 to -175 range. Revenge is still theirs for the taking as they're now 0-4 vs. Minnesota this season, having been swept at Target Field right before the All-Star Break. That's odd considering this is a Twins club that has posted all of one winning month this season (a 20-7 May) and even after last night remains "in the red" in YTD run differential at -17.  The Twins are also still just 22-37 on the road this year. Really, I'm still scratching my head over what happened last night as the situation seemed to really favor the home team.

The Baltimore bats were shockingly silenced by Tyler Duffey Thursday evening, but I'll call for a better night at the plate against lefty Tommy Milone, who had allowed 4+ runs in three consecutive starts before his last time out. But Milone only went five innings Sunday vs. Cleveland and did walk three batters. Minnesota, who is just 10-21 its L31 games overall (including 3-13 on the road) will face Wei-Yin Chen, who has a 5-0 TSR his L5 starts. It hasn't been all the Baltimore offense either as Chen has a 2.95 ERA his L3 outings & is off B2B quality starts. The O's are 18-12 vs. LH starters this season.  8* Baltimore

8* San Francisco (7:05 ET): I took a flier w/ the Giants as an underdog last night and it didn't work out as they were shut out here in Pittsburgh, 4-0.  But tonight they have the proverbial "ace in the hole," literally, that being Madison Bumgarner, who will try and lead the World Series Champs to their first victory over the Pirates since last year's Wild Card Game. Coincidentally enough, it was Bumgarner starting that all-important contest, and as you may remember he tossed a CG four-hit shutout. The Bucs have gotten a bit of revenge this season, going 4-0 against the Giants, but have yet to face Bumgarner. Despite Pittsburgh's prowess here at home, I'm not surprised at all to see the odds have flipped in San Francisco's favor due to the "Bumgarner factor."  This is a game they desperately need to stay in the Wild Card race.

It seems as if Bumgarner is already in "postseason form" w/ a ridiculous 0.71 ERA and 0.632 WHIP his L3 starts. He's off B2B complete game efforts, with a 26-1 KW ratio, the last one being a three-hit shutout of Washington. Bumgarner has been "helping himself" as well as one could make a case he is the game's top hitting pitcher due to a .772 OPS and four home runs, one coming Sunday. Both complete games came at home, but over his last six starts he's allowed 1 ER or less five times and two of those were on the road. The one exception was at Texas, an unfamiliar setting played under American League rules. Here in Pittsburgh, Bumgarner has allowed just one run in 15 career innings.

I just don't think that the Pirates' starter Jeff Locke is capable of "measuring up" to Bumgarner in this spot as Locke has now failed to make it through six innings in each of his last five outings. He'd allowed 15 runs his four previous to Sunday's win in New York where he still needed 100 pitches to make it through 5 1/3 innings. His walk ratio (4.15) and ERA (5.54) are way up of late and he has an 8.68 ERA in two career starts vs. the Giants, who bring in a pretty strong offense in spite of what last night's final result may say. Bumgarner is the key factor here. 8* San Francisco

10* Montreal (10:05 ET): While B.C. has the homefield advantage, I would still have Montreal the favorite, so this shapes up as tremendous value taking the points.  The Als may only be 2-5 SU on the year (0-3 on the road), but all five losses have come by four points or less, while the Leos have been outscored by 45 points this season. For the sake of comparison, Montreal is +7 compared to their opponents in scoring differential. Furthermore, B.C. is just five days removed from getting hammered by Hamilton, 52-22, another time that I went against them. As I mentioned in my analysis for that game, two of their three wins this season have come at the expense of still winless Saskatchewan and all three have been by exactly a field goal. Thus, the Lions are not a prime candidate to be laying points at this juncture.

The Als, meanwhile, are off three straight heartbreaking defeats, all by three point margins. Last week, it was a tough 15-12 home loss to a very good Edmonton team. While they were outgained by a pretty decided margin in that one, Montreal did have a 9-0 lead into the second quarter. They also let Ottawa at the half the previous week and the same was true three weeks ago in Calgary. They've just got to find a way to finish. Note that in all three road losses this year, they have outscored their opponents in the fourth quarter. Therefore, it's obviously been the third that's given them problems. Defense has not been an issue though as only Edmonton has allowed fewer points on the season than have the Als (19.3 PPG). 

For the sake of comparison, BC's once vaunted defense is giving up over 30 PPG on the season. Last week was obviously a season-worst for points allowed, but note that in every game the Lions have allowed at least 23.  Their offense was pretty pathetic against Hamilton as well, going two and out on five of their first seven possessions and gaining just 36 total yards. Now, B.C. Place has been a "house of horrors" for Montreal as they haven't won here since 2000 and have been outscored by 33 PPG their last four visits. But that's ALL the Leos have to "hang their hat" on here and the bottom line is that, right now, the Als are the better team. 10* Montreal

8* Baltimore (7:05 ET):  I really like this play here as despite both clubs being in Wild Card contention, they're trending in very different directions and the Orioles own a strong home field advantage.  Minnesota just got swept on the road, by the Yankees, dropping them to two games below .500.  They're "in the red" when it comes to YTD run differential as well and telling is the fact they've produced just one winning month all season, that being a 20-7 May, which in retrospect sticks out like a sore thumb.  Meanwhile, the O's have won five of six, all here at Camden Yards where they are now an outstanding 39-22 for the year. That includes a perfect 8-0 record as a ML favorite in the -150 to -175 range.

To say Twins' starter Tyler Duffy's first road start did not go well would be a mild understatement. He gave up six runs in just two innings, which when you add in a pair of walks, adds up to a 27.00 ERA and 3.50 WHIP. Granted, that came against Toronto, who has the best offense in the game, but the Baltimore lineup is no slim pickings itself. In fact, the Orioles have scored the seventh most runs in all of baseball and are averaging 6.0 rpg their last seven contests w/ a team batting average of .283.  Minnesota's pitching staff is allowing 5.0 rpg for the season on the road (.281 OBA), a big reason why they are just 21-37 outside of Target Field. Note that Duffy was better his last time out, blanking Cleveland over six innings and allowing only one hit, but concerning is the fact he still walked five batters. Over its last 30 games, Minnesota is just 9-21.

This is also a revenge spot for the O's, who were swept in Minnesota back in early July. I wouldn't be surprised if they returned the favor this weekend. I don't know how Buck Showalter keeps doing it, but he has his club in prime playoff contention, just one-half game back of the Angels for the second Wild Card in the American League.  Baltimore has a +70 run differential for the year, which puts it right on the outskirts of the top five in all of MLB. They're coming off a walk-off win yday vs. the Mets.  Tonight's starter Miguel Gonzalez doesn't have the best overall numbers, but is off a quality start. Behind him is one of baseball's best bullpens, which held the Mets to just one run in 4 IP yday and the team is 54-0 this season when entering the ninth w/ a lead.  8* Baltimore

8* Cleveland (8:00 ET):  Having lost at home last week (20-17 vs. Washington), this will be the last chance Browns HC Mike Pettine has to win in front of the faithful this preseason. Despite it being only his second year here and coming off a 7-9 SU season, Pettine is somewhat on the hotseat.  Opening the preseason w/ B2B home losses would not be good way to open 2015. Meanwhile, Buffalo also lost its home opener last week, 25-24 to Carolina in what was Rex Ryan's debut. Pettine is a Ryan disciple, so schematically, the two sides should know each other well. Both are battling through a number of injuries, but I come back to the fact Cleveland is at home while the Bills can make up for last week, next Sunday, in the dress rehearsal game as they host Pittsburgh. Lay the points. 

Home teams went 10-5 SU last week, so that's an edge right there for the Browns.  Of course, these two did contribute to those five losses. But another advantage for the home team here is an extra day to prepare as the Bills last played Friday while Cleveland played Thursday. The Browns couldn't do much on the ground vs. Washington (just 45 yds rushing) and were outgained 365-170, but did have a 14-3 lead at one point w/ both QB's - Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel - leading touchdown drives. Though McCown is the presumed starter (why?), I don't think that the competition is by any means over. McCown is expected to get around 25 snaps tonight while Manziel will play into the third quarter. The Browns may be bereft of talent at the skill positions, but are fortunate in that they're playing one of the few teams in the league that's as weak as they are there, especially when it comes to quarterback. 

Believe it or not, but right now Tyrod Taylor is the favorite to land the Bills' starting QB gig.  That speaks volumes. Making the job of Taylor, Matt Cassel and EJ Manuel (How's that for a group? Yikes!) all the more difficult is the fact that both starting receivers are out as are the team's top five running backs!  I feel Buffalo is vastly overrated coming into the season due to Ryan hire and will be unable to match LY's win total. Ryan is just 11-14 SU all-time in the preseason and has had just one winning season. 8* Cleveland

10* Washington (7:30 ET): Both of these teams won last week, Detroit doing so in pretty dominant fashion (23-3 at home vs. the Jets) while Washington went to Cleveland and came away w/ a 20-17 victory. As dominant as the Lions were (outgained the Jets 428-123!), I'd rate what the 'Skins did as just as impressive, considering they were one of just five road teams to prevail in Wk 1.  Plus, they had a pretty significant edge in total yards compared to the Browns as well (365-170) that shouldn't be overlooked. QB depth is crucial this time of year and Washington has three signal callers w/ regular season starting experience (RG3, Cousins, McCoy).  That should serve them well in the preseason. Lay the points.

Cousins looked very good last week as he completed 12 of 14 passes for 154 yards. This week, we're set to see more of McCoy as he battles for the backup role and there's rumors that the team may only be keeping two QB's on its roster.  Therefore, I look for a very motivated performance. Cousins is a QB that, at least this time of year, you can count on at the end of games if need be. Griffin and the first team offense have gone five straight preseason games w/o scoring a TD, but it's worth pointing out they should have had one last week were it not for Pierre Garcon dropping a pass. The bottom line is that I'd much rather have Cousins/McCoy than Detroit's backup QB combo of Dan Orlovsky and Kellen Moore, both of whom were just okay against a Jets' defense that was really struggling.

A big key to this game is going to be who can run the ball more effectively. Both teams ran off a lot of yards on the ground last week, the Lions led by Ameer Abdullah, but it should be "tougher sledding" for him this week against a Redskins' defensive front which permitted just 2.4 yards per carry against the Browns. With Ndamukong Suh off to Miami, I have my concerns about a Detroit's ability to stop the run, which surprising wasn't even that great w/ Suh on the roster. I imagine that playing at home will give Washington a little bit of an extra incentive and of the two teams, they are the one w/ "more to prove" Thursday night. 10* Washington

8* Miami (7:10 ET): This is a matchup of two terrible teams fighting to stay out of the cellar in the National League East. The Phillies swept the Marlins, in Philly, right after the All-Star Break en route to a shocking 16-5 start to the second half of the season. But as you might have guessed, they've regressed severely since then, although they did win last night over Toronto (at home), snapping a four-game losing skid. But the fact remains that they are - by far- the worst team in all of baseball according to virtually every metric, most notably run differential where they are -153, which is 54 runs worse than the second worst team. There is also the issue of their horrendous 19-43 road record. Miami just took two of three from another last place opponent (Milwaukee), on the road, and should take care of business here.

Like Philadelphia, the Marlins' road record is awful (21-41) and they did lose last night in Milwaukee, 8-7, blowing an early 5-0 lead. But as mentioned above, they also took the first two games of that series and now get to return home where they are a more respectable 28-30 this year. Due in large part to elevated expectations at the start of the season, Miami has dropped the third most net units in all of baseball (-19.45), but note they did take two of three from the Phils each of the first two times they met before getting swept last month. The offense has averaged 6.4 runs per game its last seven contests & should be able to "tee off" against Philly starter Jerome Williams, who has a 6.47 ERA and 1.635 WHIP on the road this season (2-9 TSR). While he's been better of late, those numbers aren't much worse than what he's done overall this year.

Pardon the pun, but Brad Hand has been fairly reliable for Miami this season, at least here at home where his ERA is 1.80 in two starts.  He has not faced the Phillies yet this year.  But facing a team that's been outscored by 2.2 runs per game on the road is as ideal a matchup as it gets for this southpaw.  While only two games up on the Phillies in the standings, the majority of numbers suggest Miami is not even close to as bad as their division rival and I think avoiding having the worst record in all of baseball will be motivation enough for the home team this weekend. 8* Miami

9* San Francisco (7:05 ET): The Giants are in the midst of a daunting schedule against a series of foes whose collective win percentage is approaching .600.  They opened by dropping two of three in St. Louis, no shame there, and now travel to Pittsburgh, who has the second best home record in all of baseball (trailing only St. Louis).  As rough as things may look right now for the defending World Series Champs, I believe they have the capability to pick up a win or two this weekend at PNC Park and they do have revenge after being swept at home by the Bucs back at the beginning of June. The Giants are better than their record shows and I would not even think of counting them out of the playoff race yet. 

Here at home, Pittsburgh was able to take two of three from Arizona to start the week, but it wasn't easy as they needed 15 innings to pull out the victory Tuesday. In fact, this team has been quite fortunate over the past week to go 3-0 in games that went to extra innings. Speaking of fortunate, the Giants will draw the back end of the Pirates' starting rotation at the start of the series, beginning w/ Charlie Morton tonight.  Morton may have an 11-4 team start record, but a 4.36 ERA and 1.319 WHIP indicate he probably doesn't deserve it. He's allowed nine home runs this season, which may not sound like a lot, but that equals the total he gave up all of last season. Only four of his L10 starts have been quality.

The Giants' offense is better than it showed vs. St. Louis, who is of course putting up record setting numbers in the department of run prevention. Remember that in the previous series, San Fran averaged 7.0 runs/game vs. Washington. They will be getting leadoff man Nori Aoki back and that's huge as he leads all of MLB in road batting average (.368).  Jake Peavy did not start in the last series vs. Pittsburgh, and while he is off a subpar outing, his previous seven starts saw him post a solid 2.74 ERA. The Giants, who have a nearly identical run differential as the Pirates, are due to "steal" at least one this weekend and don't be surprised if it's tonight.  This is a great value on them the night before they send ace Madison Bumgarner to the hill tomorrow. 9* San Francisco

8* Washington (8:40 ET): I was on the Nationals last night and will come right back w/ them again here as this is almost a "must sweep" series for them. Despite the 15-6 win Tuesday, the Nats made up no ground on the first place Mets, who were also victorious. That means the deficit in the NL East remains 4.5 games for a Nats team that is only .500 for the year and time is not on their side. Fortunately though, the upcoming schedule is pretty friendly and it starts here in Colorado where the host Rockies' fate as non-contenders was sealed long ago. Last week saw Washington drop two of three, at home, to Colorado and then they'd go on to lose six in a row against the Dodgers & Giants. But as I stated in yday's analysis, a turnaround is imminent.

It also helps having Stephen Strasburg on the hill Wednesday. Strasburg's overall numbers may not look that good, but in his last four full starts, he's gone 25 innings while allowing only five runs and 18 hits.  One of those, the most dominant in fact, came against the Rockies as he struck out 12 batters (no walks) in a 6-1 victory. While pitching at Coors Field will make a repeat of those numbers hard to come by, Strasburg is aided here by the potential absence of Carlos Gonazlez for the home team. Gonzalez, who homered yday, left the game due to a knee injury and is listed as day to day. Strasburg should be able to count on increased run support as well. The fact that the team scored 15 runs last night is certainly promising as is the fact they're batting a collective .310 their L16 games in Denver.

The Rockies are very bad, in fact I have them next to last in my own power rankings thanks to a -96 run differential. Only the Phillies have fewer wins and a worse scoring differential. Opponents have come in and been able to score 5.9 rpg this season at Coors and over the L7 games overall, Colorado pitching has an OBA of .301 while giving up 7.1 rpg. Jorge De La Rosa is having a terrible season as he has a 6.62 ERA and 1.629 WHIP here at home and making his last four starts on the road has done little to better his overall numbers as he's posted a 5.24 ERA.  8* Washington

10* Under Rays/Astros (8:10 ET): Houston was finally able to break through against Tampa Bay last night, winning 3-2 in 10 innings in walkoff fashion. They'd previously been 0-4 head to head vs. the Rays this season, but this series now shapes up well for them as they will have Dallas Keuchel on the mound Wednesday night.  While Keuchel has been impressive all year and I was on the Astros last night, the price is just a little too rich here, therefore I'm instead looking at the Under as neither lineup has exactly been on fire of late. Getting that additional half-run obviously has the potential to be huge and also a "best case scenario" would be the home team not having to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth. Take the Under.

Keuchel obviously has the ability to make sure his team enters the ninth w/ a lead. He's had a great 2015, particularly here at home where he is an astounding 11-0 in 13 starts (11-2 TSR) w/ a 1.26 ERA and 0.885 WHIP.  Nine of those 13 home starts have stayed Under the total, including his last where he allowed just one run in seven innings. His strikeout ratio has improved as the season has gone on to the point he's now averaging 9.0 K's per nine innings over his L12 starts.  Since the end of May, there have been only three times where Keuchel has permitted more than three earned runs in a start.  Tampa Bay's offense, one of MLB's worst (25th in runs scored), has averaged just 3.5 rpg vs. southpaw starters despite a winning record.

Unfortunately for Houston, their own offense has failed them in recent days by scoring three runs or less in seven of the last 10 games.  They're batting a collective .225 the last seven games and have really struggled to score against the Rays all season, averaging less than two runs per game. They have yet to score more than three times in any of the five matchups.  TB will give the baseball to Nate Karns on Wednesday and while he only lasted 4 2/3 innings his last time out, his overall number remain solid, particularly a 2.95 ERA and 1.033 WHIP on the road. Tampa's staff is #1 in baseball in opponents' batting average and they've also allowed the fourth fewest number of runs in the American Leagus (Astros are 2nd). 10* Under Rays/Astros

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): After coming in and taking the opener in 8-2 fashion Monday, the Indians had the tables turned Tuesday at Fenway Park, losing to the Red Sox by a score of 9-1. The Tribe are an interesting case study in the sense that they are one of only four American League teams to have a winning road record. Texas, of all clubs, has the best road record at 33-28 while the other two are division leaders New York and Kansas City. Because they have the fewest road wins in all of MLB (24), Cleveland has remained a non-contender (currently in last place in the Central) despite its success away from home. But they do have another edge today over the Red Sox, an "ace in the hole" if you will, in the form of Corey Kluber, who I expect to carry them to victory.

Kluber has spent much of the year last in net units among all starting pitchers. His 9-16 TSR has him at -13.0 units YTD and what's interesting is that last year's NL Cy Young winner (Clayton Kershaw) is third from the bottom on that list. Neither has pitched poorly; Kluber has a 3.34 ERA and 1.041 WHIP and lately has been even better w/ a 2.66 ERA and 0.676 WHIP his L3 starts. He comes off B2B complete game efforts against Minnesota, where he allowed a total of two runs on four hits while striking out 17 and walking only two. Admittedly, his ERA is up nearly a full point from LY's Cy Young campaign, but he does lead the league in innings pitched & is third in FIP. Kluber's run support dropping almost a full run per game from 2014 has done him no favors, nor has the Indians' sometimes poor defense. 

His KW ratio remains fantastic though and the B2B complete game efforts are enough to convince me that he should handle the Red Sox w/ ease tonight.  Boston bats have put a ton of runs on the board lately (9.4 L7 games), but have been giving up their fair share as well (7.0) and I have little faith in starter Joe Kelly, who is fortunate to have a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts considering his WHIP is 1.531. Kelly has failed to go longer than six innings in 11 straight starts.  Boston is a fellow cellar dweller in the AL and in fact has a run differential (-49) that's twice as bad as Cleveland's. Going back to Kluber, his WHIP, opponents' batting average and walk ratio this year are all career bests. The team is 10-2 as a road favorite of -125 or less this season. I like Kluber and the Indians in tonight's rubber match. 8* Cleveland

10* Under Braves/Padres (10:10 ET): When Atlanta scored a run in the top of the ninth last night, it wasn't totally meaningless as it resulted in the series opener going Over the total. Here in San Diego, that's nothing new as shockingly the Padres have become the top Over team in baseball - and it's not even close (68-48-3).  But the hosts will have James Shields on the hill Tuesday and while lately that hasn't meant much (4.73 ERA, 1.263 WHIP L3 starts), this string of Overs for both Shields (three straight) and the Padres (5-1 L6) has to even out sooner rather than later, right? Atlanta's offense is averaging just 2.7 runs per game the last seven while batting a collective .222.  Take the Under.

Shields has a disastrous 2-11 TSR his L13 starts after the team had won 9 of his first 13 turns on the mound.  He was not effective his last time out as he allowed five runs in six innings and walked four batters in a 7-3 loss to the Reds.  But Shields also hasn't been getting much run support of late, in fact, the offense hasn't topped three runs in any of his last five outings. Personally, he should bounce back here against a weak Braves offense and it should be noted that Shields ended that start vs. the Reds by retiring the L10 batters he saw in order. He'd also previously tossed three consecutive quality starts.

But I'm not sure San Diego's offense is poised to repeat last night's performance, even though they'll be facing the struggling Matt Wisler.  Wisler did allow only two runs (in five innings) his last time out. Though he's still recording a majority of his outs via fly ball rather than grounders, which is troubling, Wisler has allowed only two runs in three of his past four outings on the road and should be supremely motivated here going up against the team that traded him.  Not having to play the bottom of the ninth for a second straight day should theoretically help our cause here as well.  10* Under Braves/Padres

8* Washington (8:40 ET): Losers of six in a row, it's getting to be "do or die" time for the Nationals as they not only trail the first place Mets by 4.5 games in the National League East, but have also fell below .500 for the season!  Their offense has been shut out three times during the losing skid w/ those games coming against the Dodgers and Giants.  Their trek through the NL West continues Tuesday, but fortunately their next stop is Coors Field where the offense should pick up. Shockingly, the Nats did just drop two of three at home to the Rockies earlier this month, but given Colorado's horrible season overall, this is where Washington should be able to turn things around.  This is a pretty cheap price too.

Talk about "due for a win;" Nats' starter Jordan Zimmerman has posted a fantastic 0.763 WHIP over the course of his L3 starts, yet has nothing to show for it as his team start record is 0-3.  He was on the wrong end of a pitcher's duel w/ Clayton Kershaw his last time out, taking the loss despite allowing only one run on two hits over 7 IP.  He also struck out nine batters and walked just one. When he faced the Rockies earlier the month, he did not factor into the decision as the bullpen blew the game in spectacular fashion, allowing a grand slam. Zimmerman had allowed just one run on four hits there and remains 5-0 w/ a 2.10 ERA (eight starts) lifetime vs. the Rocks.

Colorado is off a rare shutout victory, Sunday over San Diego, but will be turning to David Hale tonight.  Hale, who has an 0-5 TSR his L5 starts, has a 7.02 ERA and 1.680 WHIP his last three, drastically different numbers compared to Zimmerman. This will be his first time out since July 4th though, but still he's only in the rotation due to the demotion of Eddie Butler and has given up at least four runs in five straight starts.  Overall, the team is 2-6 w/ him on the mound this season. The Rockies, whose -87 run differential is second worst in all of baseball, are simply playing out the string at this point. Meanwhile, Washington is on its longest losing skid of the last six seasons and is completely desperate for the win.  8* Washington

10* Houston (8:10 ET):  Yesterday saw the Astros fall to 0-4 this season head to head w/ the Rays as they lost 9-2 here at home.  They were also swept in Tampa Bay right before the Break, but I expect revenge to be theirs Tuesday and the good news is they are available at a much cheaper price here compared to yday.  The AL West leaders are an outstanding 40-20 (.667) at Minute Maid Park this season, so I wouldn't expect a repeat of Monday when they gave up a season-high 15 hits and fell behind 4-0 right off the bat. Remember Tampa had been swept over the weekend in Texas. Tonight's starter Jake Odorizzi was fortunate to come away w/ a victory last time out (as a -220 favorite) as he allowed 6 ER.

I talked a little bit about Houston's home dominance in yday's analysis and while things didn't go the way I'd expected, the fact remains they're still a MLB-best 16-4 their L20 here w/ the offense batting around .280 w/ over 5.0 rpg scored and 32 home runs. The pitching staff has compiled a 2.53 ERA during that same time as well. The key Monday was the Rays' Tim Beckham hitting a home-run in the top of the first, his first since May. That can't be counted on again here while the Astros offensive numbers should go up when taking into account past performance. Odorizzi has never started a game here in Houston, where the home team has not dropped back to back games since the end of June.

Scott Feldman gets the baseball for the Astros, looking to build on one of his best starts of the season, one where he tossed six scoreless innings against the Giants last Wednesday. He allowed only four hits as well. Feldman now has a 2.60 ERA and 1.096 WHIP his L3 starts as he's allowed just five runs in 17+ IP. He has a 2.41 ERA in six career starts vs. the Rays.  Tampa Bay's offensive explosion last night was unexpected to say the least as they'd totaled 10 runs in the three losses to Texas over the weekend.  The Astros' offense has struggled to put runs on the board against this Rays' pitching staff this year, but should finally break through tonight.   They average a full run more per game against right-handers compared to the Rays. 10* Houston

10* Phoenix (8:05 ET):  These two Western Conference squads had very different weekends. Tulsa snapped an ugly 10-game SU losing streak (1-8-1 ATS) w/ an 81-76 win in New York Saturday (I had 'em!) while Phoenix suffered a surprising and embarrassing home loss to Indiana, 75-63 as 5.5-pt chalk.  After winning five in a row, the Mercury have dropped two of three, but should bounce back tonight in a major way. Despite the loss, they only trail first place Minnesota by 2.5 games, which should come as a major relief considering they were w/o Brittney Griner (suspended) for the first seven games of the season. They've gone 12-5 SU since and that includes a trio of victories over the Shock, two of them coming by double digits. Lay the small number here. 

Meanwhile, after a fast start to the season, Tulsa is desperately holding on to its playoff spot. Really, given that they lost 10 games in a row, it's a miracle that they are still in third place in the Western Conference, but that just goes to show how incompetent both San Antonio and Seattle have been all season (LA also injury-riddled).  Desperate, they were catching the Liberty in the second game of back to backs Saturday, a major advantage. But the bottom line remains that w/o Skylar Diggins, this has not been a good team. Yet they continue to get too much respect from the oddsmakers as far as I'm concerned. Saturday saw them getting more points than at any other point of the season and incredibly they led by as many as 20 pts in the second half. That's not happening again.

Phoenix missed all 13 three-point attempts it took Sunday and finished w/ only 63 pts, their second-fewest scored in any game all season. Given that they are shooting over 45% from behind the arc in the season series vs. the Shock, I'd expect major improvement tonight.  Defensively, this is a much better team w/ Griner in the lineup and they lead the league in field goal percentage allowed. Tulsa could be w/o All-Star Plenette Pierson (knee) and Odyssey Sims is likely to regress after scoring a season-best 27 pts Saturday. Mercury HC Sandy Brondello questioned her team's effort last time out, so we should expect an inspired performance from the favorite tonight. 10* Phoenix

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): On paper, you couldn't have a bigger mismatch as the teams w/ the best and worst run differentials in all of baseball start a series Tuesday night in Philadelphia. The Blue Jays, who had won 11 in a row before dropping two of three over the weekend to the Yankees, have outscored their opponents by 138 runs this year. With the exception of St. Louis, no other team in baseball is even within 60 runs of that margin!  Then you have the Phillies, who have been outscored by 153 runs this year, which is almost 50 runs WORSE than every other team! A matchup of MLB's best offense (by far) against a pitching staff that's allowed the second most runs spells big time trouble for the home team here.

The Phillies came out of the Break winning 16 of their first 21 games, but were swept over the weekend in Milwaukee and have dropped five of six overall.  They're a respectable 27-29 at home (as opposed to 19-43 on the road), but it will be very difficult for them to even win one of the two games here vs. the Blue Jays. They did actually take a game from them in Toronto last month, but it was immediately after that the Jays caught fire.  Aaron Nola is 2-0 his L3 starts (3-0 TSR), which is somewhat misleading in the sense that he has a 5.06 ERA & 1.437 WHIP during that time.  He's likely to struggle against a Toronto lineup which averages 5.2 rpg even though there is no DH.  The Blue Jays are outscoring NL foes 5.5 to 2.9 in 15 games so far.

But the real key to Toronto's resurgence has been pitching.  Tonight's starter is knuckleballer RA Dickey and he's been sharp of late w/ a 1.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP his L3 starts. He'd allowed 2 ER or less in six straight starts before allowing three in 6 IP vs. Oakland last Wednesday, but that hardly mattered as the Jays won 10-3 anyway. The Phillies rank 29th in runs scored and totaled just four over the weekend against a subpar Milwaukee pitching staff. Note Dickey faced the Phils last month and allowed just two runs, both unearned, in eight innings of work.  Overall, the Jays have won 9 of 10 over the Phillies, including six straight on the road.  Total mismatch here. 8* Toronto

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET):  I freely admit that I would like this play even more had the Angels not lost in extra innings Sunday night in Kansas City. But the facts remain that they are coming back home and have revenge for a series sweep last week in Chicago. While the Halos have had their fair share of difficulties away from home (lost 12 of 13), they are still a money-making 36-23 for the season in Anaheim and going back to the West Coast for a "normal start time" Monday somewhat mitigates the late finish last night. Plus, the opponent is the White Sox, who I continue to have little regard for, even after they snapped the Cubs' win streak Sunday.  The bottom line is that the Southsiders have been outscored by 65 runs this season, a worse margin than all but one team (Seattle) in the entire American League.

Making last night's loss look even worse, the Angels allowed the game-tying run in the bottom of the ninth and actually outhit (6-5) the Royals. They now own MLB's worst record since July 22nd at 6-17. As bad as that sounds, they are still only one-half game behind Baltimore for the second Wild Card. But this is a series they must take advantage of. The bats failed to show up in last week's series, scoring only four runs in the three games and were shut out by Carlos Rodon, who was brilliant over seven innings allowing just four hits while striking out 11. But Rodon's chances of repeating that seem unlikely, considering he'd struggled mightily in three of his previous four starts and has a 4.75 ERA/1.570 WHIP for the season.

Meanwhile, Angels starter Andrew Heany has not lost at home in five starts & has much better overall numbers than Rodon (2.53 ERA/1.035 WHIP). Last time out (against the White Sox) resulted in his first loss of the year, but he allowed only two runs and six hits over 5 2/3 innings.  This is not a strong White Sox lineup he'll be facing here as they rank next to last in runs scored, in all of MLB, for the season. They managed just three runs in Sunday's win, but fortunately had Chris Sale on the mound and he took care of business. A desperate Angels team almost has to win Monday and I think they will.  8* LA Angels

8* Houston (8:10 ET):  The Astros are likely to not have fond memories of the last time they faced off w/ Tampa Bay. That's because, right before the All-Star Break, the Rays swept a three-game set. That was the only time these two clubs have met in 2015, and came during Houston's longest losing skid of the season, six games, all on the road. Since that time, the AL West leaders have gone a respectable 15-12 and now lead the division by three games (Angels Sunday night result pending) after taking two of three from Detroit over the weekend. They'll finally get a shot at revenge w/ the Rays, starting Monday, and I like their chances in the series opener behind Scott Kazmir. 

Tampa Bay did not have a good weekend as they were swept in Texas, severely hurting their already fleeting postseason chances. They are now one game under .500 & 2.5 games back of the second Wild Card. They did have 12 hits Sunday, but couldn't score after the second inning and lost 5-3. Having to now travel to Minute Maid Park is a tall task considering the Astros' 40-19 home record. The Detroit series was Houston's first following a nine-game road trip (went 2-7). They've won seven of nine overall here and since 6.28, they're a MLB-best 16-3 at home.  Astros' hitters are batting a collective .282 during that streak w/ an average of 5.5 runs per game + 31 home runs.

Astros' pitchers have also done their part the L19 games at Minute Maid w/ a 2.53 ERA, including 1.55 the last eight games. They have a great one on the mound tonight, lefty Scott Kazmir, who came over from Oakland last month. In four starts w/ his new team, Kazmir has a 1.04 ERA, which is excellent. But unfortunately, he's been undone by a lack of run support his last two times out, both on the road. His last start saw him on the wrong end of a Madison Bumgarner gem in San Fransisco.  But the fact remains Kazmir still ranks among the league leaders in both ERA (2.12) and opponents batting average (.210), plus he hasn't lost three straight starts in almost five seasons. Four of the seven runs he's allowed those L2 starts were unearned and he's allowed 2 ER or less in seven consecutive outings. I give Kazmir a huge edge over Rays starter Erasmo Ramirez, who while effective his last time out, did post a 5.12 ERA his previous three starts.  8* Houston

8* Los Angeles (5:05 ET):  The Sparks might only be 7-16 SU and off B2B losses, but they are favored here and I happen to agree w/ the linesmakers. The season got off to an ugly start in Los Angeles, 0-7 and 3-14 straight up, but then came a four-game win streak, three of which came by double digits, including both at home. It also included an 88-77 road win against the team they'll play again today, Chicago. All five Sparks' starters scored in double figures in that game, led by Candace Parker's 31 points. While a close game until a late 14-4 run, I don't see any problem w/ laying a short number here with the Sparks now at home.

Los Angeles will also be highly motivated coming off an embarrassing home loss (as 13-pt favorites) to lowly Seattle where they blew a 16-point lead. Shockingly, it was the fourth time they lost to the Storm this season. Consider that Seattle has just six wins all season and its only two on the road have come here. That's just bizarre.  When analyzing the Sparks season to date, it's important to make note of the date July 29th, which is when Candace Parker first started playing. This team is far more talented than its record indicates and I feel will finish a comfortable third in the weak Western Conference. 

Chicago, meanwhile, is off a win over Seattle two days ago. But that was following a 21-pt loss in New York the game previous. This will be their third straight road game, a tough spot. On the road, they have a losing record, 5-7 both straight up and against the spread. A high-scoring team, the Sky also have their issues defensively as they allow over 80 PPG, one of only two teams to do so in the entire league.  They've allowed 84 pts in B2B games.  I look for the Sparks to pick up a big home victory Sunday afternoon. 8* Los Angeles

10* Under Sun/Dream (3:05 ET): These two teams have combined to go Over the total in their last seven games, but I say that streak comes to an end Sunday afternoon in Atlanta as the visitors are highly unlikely to be torched the way they were Friday when they allowed the Liberty to score 90 points on better than 50% shooting. At the same time, they shot the ball lights-out early (over 60%) and finished the game having made more than they missed. They've now scored 78 or more each of their last four home games, but on the road the team is shooting barely over 40% for the year. Today's total is significantly higher than any in the L10 games. Take the Under.

Atlanta is the one team in the Eastern Conference currently sporting a losing record. It's well deserved too as they're allowing a league-high 81.4 points per game after allowing 100+ twice in their last six games. Overall, the Over is 7-1 their last eight games. But the Dream aren't known for scoring; they average just 73.8 PPG here at home on worse than 40 percent shooting.  They did manage 82 points in a near upset of Minnesota Friday, but shot only 38.5%.  It was their second straight strong effort on the offensive end as they dropped 98 earlier in the week on fading Tulsa, but note that Connecticut came into its last game ranked third in the entire league in points allowed.  Both teams should be cooling off at the offensive end here.

This will be the first of three times these teams will play in the next nine days. They've played two times previously and neither final score (75-70 & 82-64, both in favor of the Sun) even approached what the total is here, yet we've seen a dramatic increase in the number from the linesmakers anyway compared to those first two matchups.  That's all about recent performance, but as discussed earlier, both sides are likely to cool off offensively, particularly the Dream, who very well could be deflated after blowing a 16-pt lead Friday and losing. For the record, the totals for those two prior meetings were 151.5 and 146.   Some real nice value here, in my opinion. 10* Under Sun/Dream

10* Under Cubs/White Sox (2:10 ET):  The first two games of this series both went Over with the Cubs also winning each, but today they run into White Sox' ace Chris Sale. While that may not be enough for the home team to avoid the sweep, it will be enough I think to limit scoring and keep this finale Under the total. Of course, I like the half-run we have to work with here as 7 is such a key number in betting baseball totals and with the home team favored, there is the potential of avoiding the bottom of the ninth.  As I often say, not needing those final three outs can often be the difference between a game going Over or staying Under. Look for this one to stay Under the total.

Sale has had some good and bad performances recently, but his last time out was indicative of the former as he allowed just 2 ER over 7 IP in an 8-2 win over the Angels.  That came after uncharacteristically allowing 7 ER in B2B starts. The Over is 4-0 his L4 starts, but that's odd b/c the White Sox are generally an Under team (52-58-4 in all games), including a 21-35-1 mark here at U.S. Cellular Field.  The Pale Hose aren't exactly noted for their offense either as they rank next to last in runs scored in all of baseball. Here at home, they average only 3.5 runs per game. 

Sale still sports a strong WHIP overall (1.064) and the Under is 7-4 in his L11 starts at home.  He'll be going up against a Cubs lineup that typically isn't as productive in the daytime where it averages just 3.6 runs per game while batting a collective .226. As a result, the Under has gone 25-18 in those contests. Cubs starter Dan Haren has been okay since coming from Miami, but his biggest issue (allowing HR's) shouldn't matter here as the White Sox are 23rd in home runs this season. The last series these teams played, over on the North Side, saw no more than six runs scored in any game. One of those saw Sale throw seven innings and allow just one run on six hits. Theoretically, the Cubs lineup is stronger here because of the addition of the DH, but at the same time they aren't likely to benefit again from errors again like they did last night when the Sox were very sloppy in the field.  10* Under Cubs/White Sox

10* Atlanta (1:35 ET): Wins and losses are probably the most overrated statistic when evaluating a MLB starter and if you want evidence of that, then look no further than the two we have going today in the series finale between the D'backs and Braves.  For Arizona, Rubby De La Rosa has a 5-0 team start record his last five turns, but in the last three has posted pedestrian numbers, such as a 4.05 ERA and 1.353.  Atlanta's Shelby Miller has been right about the same, but he has an 0-3 TSR during that time and going back even further he has an 0-10 TSR his L10 starts and that's despite solid numbers for the year (2.48 ERA, 1.172 WHIP). Only three times during the losing streak has Miller allowed more than 2 ER. 

Saturday saw the Braves fall 8-4 here at Turner Field, after they had taken the series opener by a score of 3-2.  Atlanta hitters were shut down by D'backs starter Patrick Corbin before busting loose for all four runs in the home half of the eighth. Arizona, perhaps the most mediocre team in all of baseball, is just 25-30 this year when coming off a win.  They're also 0-7 on the road when the money line is between -100 and -125.  Last time in that role was right before the All-Star Break, with De La Rosa on the hill, and they lost to the Mets 5-3.  The numbers say that Arizona has been swinging the bats well recently, but keep in mind that's owed largely to two games vs. Philadelphia's awful pitching.  In the loss Friday, they had only five hits. They've also struck out 20 times in the L2 games.

Miller, who has not won since May 17th, has been given little in the way of run support during his losing streak. They haven't scored more than three runs for him in any of his L10 starts and seven times have been held to 1 or 0 runs scored.  That's just not sustainable. In fact, while actually still in the game, Miller has gotten an unthinkable 14 runs of support his L15 games started! Not since 1988 has any MLB starter had a sub-2.50 ERA and a win percentage below .357.  In case you couldn't tell, I feel it's long overdue for Miller to break through w/ a win. 10* Atlanta

8* NY Mets (1:10 ET): Let's try this again. The Mets still have yet to beat the Pirates this year, now 0-5 head to head. But the margin for error in this series has been razor thin as both games have gone to extra innings, including last night where the teams went 14. For Sunday's finale, Matt Harvey heads to the mound as the "savior" for the home team and I just can't see a club that came into this three-game set w/ a 42-18 record at Citi Field getting swept. Though it hasn't worked out as well as it did for me last season, I'm still a firm believer in the revenge angle where you take the team that was swept in the last series w/ the current opponent until they win a game. Usually, these avengers cash for me in the series opener; here we'll just have to wait for the finale.

Harvey obviously needs little introduction. He comes in w/ a 14-8 team start record, 2.80 ERA & 1.007 WHIP.  But those numbers, impressive in their own right, are nothing compared to what we've seen from the right-hander lately. The Mets have won Harvey's last four turns in the rotation & in the last three, he's posted a 0.40 ERA and 0.485 WHIP (19-0 KW ratio)!  He's currently working on a 15-inning scoreless streak. Now he did struggle in his only start vs. the Pirates this season, failing to reach the fifth inning for the first and only time in 58 career starts (allowed career worst seven runs). But that start also came at PNC Park, not Citi Field where Harvey is 4-0 w/ a 1.05 ERA his last six. 

Not only are the Mets 0-5 vs. the Pirates this season, but they are 3-16 overall vs. the top three in the NL Central (also Cubs & Cardinals), meaning it may not be a long stay if they do end up making the playoffs.  So I feel today's game is very big for the home team as they can't afford to lose to another potential postseason opponent, especially w/ their top pitcher on the bump. Pittsburgh will counter w/ Jeff Locke, who has been up and down all season, but mostly "down" on the road as his ERA/WHIP there is 6.51/1.723. He's allowed 4 ER in B2B starts. Control issues have also plagued Locke as his 3.48 walks per nine innings rates as the third-highest ratio among all starters.  The Mets have to have this one. 8* NY Mets

8* Indianapolis (1:00 ET):  Going back to the Peyton Manning era, the Colts have never seemed to care much about the preseason and that trend continued last year w/ an 0-4 SU mark.  But today, plus the points, I like them against a Philadelphia team that has undergone perhaps more turnover than any other in recent NFL history.  With so many new faces on both sides of the ball, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Eagles struggle early while w/ the Colts, you at least know there's a consistency in place. Also, it does appear from the reports that Andrew Luck is more likely to play than the Eagles' newest QB acquisition, the oft-injured Sam Bradford.  Tim Tebow, of all people, may actually be under center in this game for Philly!

Bradford won't be the only Eagle to not suit up Sunday. Neither DeMarco Murray nor Kiko Alonso (LB), both new acquisitions themselves, are expected to play.  TE Zach Ertz is injured as well.  Much of the QB duties in this game will fall on Mark Sanchez, and while he was OK last year in the regular season, he's still the same old "Sanchize."   With HC Chip Kelly using a much different sports science regimen compared to other teams, expect him to manage playing time much differently, but that doesn't mean key players will be out there very long. One local report that I read explicitly stated that the coaching staff had little, if any concern, over Sunday's game and the focus (as it should be) is one the regular season. Little in the way of new schemes will be revealed. Again, Tim Tebow might play.

Any Colts QB should have little difficulty moving the ball on an Eagles defense that allowed 26 points per game LY in the preseason.  The secondary remains highly questionable.  Behind Luck, it will be veteran Matt Hasselbeck, who can certainly get the job done. I actually trust him more than any of the Eagles' quarterbacks that will be on the field here.  While I don't believe for a second that this game necessarily "means more" to Indianapolis than it does Philadelphia, taking the points is the way to go as I just couldn't lay points w/ a team that has already dismissed the game as meaningless and will be going w/ Tebow. 8* Indianapolis

10* Calgary (10:00 ET):  The Stamps and Redblacks both came into the week tied for first place in their respective divisions, but now each trail after Edmonton and Toronto each pulled out victories to start Week 8. What's a little misleading is that, in spite of matching 4-2 SU records, both teams have actually been outscored this season. For Calgary, that's a surprise, while Ottawa (in just its second year of existence) will take it. But that being said, I feel the defending Grey Cup Champs have some real advantages coming into this matchup. Namely, they have revenge for a shocking 29-26 OT loss (were four-point favorites) out East three weeks ago. They're also coming off a bye, which is key.  So lay the points in this one.

This year's Stampeders haven't been nearly as dominant as last year's group; in fact they're 0-6 so far at the betting window. All but one of their games, a 29-11 loss to Montreal in Wk 2, have been decided by five points or less. But this still is one of the more talented teams in the league and w/ an extra week to prepare, not to mention revenge, I expect to see their best all-around game of the season Saturday night. They've won all four home games and over the last two weeks, home teams were a perfect 8-0 straight up.  Ottawa hasn't played on the road in over a month since losing back in Week 3 at Edmonton by a final score of 46-17. They won despite getting held to 33 rushing yards by the Stamps in the first meeting.

I think that just a couple of weeks ago, this line would have been much higher. It's all about perception as Ottawa has played much better than expected while Calgary is failing to meet its lofty expectations. Remember though, the Stamps destroyed the Redblacks in both meetings last year, winning by an average of 23 points per game.  Forget about winning, I don't even see Ottawa staying competitive in this one as the Stamps defense should rise to the occasion. Ottawa has been fortunate to pull out B2B comebacks the L2 weeks, but their "luck" ends here. 10* Calgary

10* Over Buccaneers/Vikings (8:00 ET):  This will be the second preseason game for Minnesota and the first for their opponent.  While historically that's been a profitable situation for teams, Pittsburgh failed to cover in the same role last night & I'm a bit wary of laying more than a field goal here. However, despite the Vikings scoring only 14 pts in Sunday's HOF Game, I do see this contest going Over the total. Now four of the Vikes' five preseason games under HC Mike Zimmer have gone Under and Tampa Bay was a perfect 4-0 Under last preseason. But, as you know, this is a much different Bucs team this year + the Vikings should be sharper w/ a full game under their belts.  Take the Over in this one.

Tampa Bay took QB Jameis Winston w/ the first overall pick in the draft and this will be our first real look at him, Saturday night. By all accounts, Winston has looked very good in camp. He is likely to play into the second quarter tonight.  Winston has a number of a weapons at his disposal, a trio of tall receivers that includes Vincent Jackson, Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins.  Do not be surprised at all to see the rookie QB put points on the board in this one.  Behind him is Mike Glennon, who has plenty of starting experience in this league and he should be able to get the team into the end zone as well against the Vikings reserves.

As for Minnesota, second-year QB Teddy Bridgewater looked pretty good against the Steelers in the opener and it's not like the Bucs' defense comes into the season highly rated. Bridgewater completed five of six passes for 44 yards Sunday as he led the first team offense down into the red zone before a failed fourth down.  OC Norv Turner has said he wants Bridgewater and the 1st team offense on the field for about twice as long as they were vs. Pittsburgh. That's save for Adrian Peterson (won't play), but backup Jerrick McKinnon is just fine. With four of six preseason games going Over yday, we're still seeing the oddsmakers set the total too low.  Preseason games have been averaging over 40 PPG the last couple years. 10* Over Buccaneers/Vikings

8* Under Angels/Royals (7:10 ET):  The Angels came into this series w/ revenge after being swept by the Royals very early in the year. I was on them as they took the series opener, but it took a shocking come from behind effort against what was thought to be a virtually invincible Kansas City bullpen. After losing last night, 4-1, the Halos should probably feel even better about being able to pull out the win Thursday as tonight things will get no easier against Johnny Cueto, who is fresh off a dominant performance in his Kauffman Stadium debut last time out. There, he went the distance, allowing just four hits in a 4-0 shutout.  Not to be outdone, Angels starter Matt Shoemaker didn't allow a single run over three starts before getting roughed up his last time out. He should bounce back here and I see this one staying Under the total.

Three home runs killed Shoemaker Monday in Chicago as the White Sox rolled to an 8-2 victory.  But as mentioned above, it had been total domination his previous three outings as he didn't allow a single run in 19 innings and he struck out 27 batters. The Under was actually 5-0-1 his previous six starts w/ Shoemaker allowing 2 ER or less every time out.  He should bounce back tonight as the Royals' lineup managed just one hit through six innings against last night's starter Jered Weaver and only six total for the game. The bad news for Shoemaker is that his own offense has scored a total of just two runs his L3 starts and didn't score at all in two of outings where he himself didn't allow a run.

  I don't expect much from the Angels lineup tonight against Cueto either.  First off, going back to the end of his tenure w/ Cincinnati, Cueto has not allowed a home run in eight consecutive starts. He struck out eight and didn't walk a single batter Monday vs. Detroit.  With the Royals, he has posted a 2.05 ERA and 0.909 WHIP, both right in line w/ his overall numbers for the year. The Angels' lineup comes into this game having scored just 2.4 rpg its last seven while batting a collective .218. This is a good number as we have a half-run to work w/ above the key number of 7, plus I don't see the home team having to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth. 8* Under Angels/Royals

8* Run Line Philadelphia (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Phillies +1.5.  They came up just one run shy last night, losing 3-1 here in Milwaukee. I'd qualify that as a "hard-luck loss" considering they outhit the Brewers, 9-4, and one of the runs allowed came on a sacrifice fly and the runner scored from second base. That was the first time that's happened in a major league game since 1997! Of course, it's been "that kind of season" for the Phillies, who are last in MLB in scoring differential by a wide margin (-146). But it's not as if the Brew Crew are a good team either; they came into this series having been swept by the Cubs earlier in the week & have scored just 2.1 rpg (.190 team BA) the L7 games.  The Phils do no worse than a one-run loss here.

Milwaukee is developing some young pitching and tonight's starter Jimmy Nelson is in that group. Over his L3 starts, he has a 1.74 ERA and 0.822 WHIP, but after three straight outings w/o allowing a single earned run, he gave up four his last time out in what ended up being a surprise 5-4 win over St. Louis.  The team is now 7-2 in Nelson's last nine starts, but he also allowed four runs in just five innings his lone appearance vs. the Phillies. It is critical to note that the Brewers are one of the worst teams in baseball too, hence the run line can be beneficial, as they only have 36 wins all season by 2+ runs. They're just 3-4 as home favorites of -150 to -200 on the ML this season, plus they have a losing record (25-36) here at home. 

There is also the fact that the Phillies still have revenge from a prior sweep earlier in the year, when they dropped all four games at home. As mentioned in yday's analysis, two of those games were decided by one run, however.  Tonight's starter for the Phils is Jerome Williams and he's coming off B2B quality starts where he's allowed just 2 ER in 12 innings of work.  The team has won both games and remember they are still 17-8 since the All-Star Break.  Last night's starter Adam Morgan allowed only three baserunners through six innings, but unfortunately all three were able to score.  That's bad cluster luck right there. 8* Run Line Philadelphia (+1.5)

10* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The Mets were "supposed" to keep rolling last night as they welcomed in Pittsburgh, after sweeping lowly Colorado to start the week. But instead they fell 3-2 in extra innings, dropping them to 0-4 this year vs. the Bucs. That means the revenge angle is still in play here and I just can't see them dropping B2B games here at Citi Field. Note that the Pirates went eight innings w/o scoring last night and finished w/ one fewer hit. While getting a quality start from Bartolo Colon, the Mets' offense was a major disappointment after coming into the game leading the NL in runs scored at 5.6 per game the L3 weeks.  A red-hot Jon Niese should lead them to victory tonight, provided the offense improves as expected. 

Over his L3 starts, Niese has a 1.80 ERA and 0.90 WHIP as he's allowed just four runs in 20 IP. His KW ratio is 17-2 and he's given up just 16 hits. Last time out, he held Colorado to just two runs over seven solid innings w/ both coming via a home run. The majority of his outs were recorded via ground balls, rather than fly balls, which is always a good sign. Also, Niese has been pitching well for some time as evidenced by the fact 11 of his L12 starts have been quality. Here, he faces a Pirates lineup that has scored three runs or less in three of its last four games.  I found it surprising that Niese has not shared in his team's success at home this year; his TSR is just 5-6, but the team is 42-19 overall at Citi Field, one of the better home field records in all of baseball.

Charlie Morton has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts for the Pirates, but also has a 4.07 ERA and 1.585 WHIP, which indicates he's been lucky. Last time out, he allowed five runs in five innings and walked three against the Dodgers. That was the Sunday night game where the team made the insane late comeback.  It was at home too, and it's worth noting Morton's ERA on the road is 5.92 this season.  In five of his last seven starts overall, he's walked at least three batters. There's also the issue of his 11.20 first inning ERA, which is the highest in baseball among all starters who have pitched at least 10 times. Morton also is 0-3 w/ a 5.01 ERA his L4 starts vs. the Mets. Had they not gone 0 for 7 w/ RISP last night, the home team likely would have won.  10* NY Mets

10* Hamilton (7:00 ET): As I discussed in last week's analysis, the Ti-Cats are somewhat undervalued right now. I've got them rated as the top team in the league currently, thanks to an impressive +77 scoring differential that was a CFL-best before Edmonton's 15-12 win over Montreal earlier this week.  But Hamilton can reclaim the distinction of best scoring differential tonight as they host B.C.. The Leos are off a surprising 26-23 win over Edmonton last week, as 2.5-pt home dogs, but the road has been a different story thus far w/ their only win so far coming at the expense of winless Saskatchewan, by just three points. I say lay the points in this one as Hamilton continues to roll here at home.

I was on the Ti-Cats last week, obviously, as they rolled to a 38-8 win over Winnipeg. While the total yardage edge (290-273) wasn't indicative of a blowout, it was an all-around dominant performance nonetheless.  The defense did return two interceptions for touchdowns while pivot Zach Collaros completed 20 for 32 passes for 280 yards. At one point, the game was 31-0. The win kept Hamilton unbeaten, all-time, here at Tim Horton's Field where they are 8-0 straight up. Including two dominant performances this year (also beat Toronto 34-18), they have outscored visiting teams 202-102 in their new stadium. Note that the home team did sweep, winning all four games, each of the last two weeks in CFL play. The Tabbies is allowing only 19 PPG this season and the most they've given up in any game is 26

British Columbia has seen four of its six games so far decided by exactly three points, the exceptions being road losses to Ottawa and Winnipeg. I could make a case that the Lions' three road games so far have come against the league's three weakest teams. Thus, this is a significant step up. I realize that the vast majority of CFL games this season have been close, but as I said last week that hasn't really been the case w/ Hamilton, who already has four double-digit wins to its credit. The Ti-Cats are 5-1 ATS and it's definitely worth noting that before last week B.C's only two victories were both over Saskatchewan. Five turnovers the last two games don't bode well for them here, nor does the fact they average just 18.7 PPG on the road. 10* Hamilton

8* Tulsa (7:05 ET):  This would be the second game of back to backs for the favored Liberty, who won last night in Connecticut, 90-78 as five-point chalk. That represents the highest scoring game all year for the Eastern Conference leaders, who have now won four straight overall to take a 2.5 game lead over the rest of the pack. But this is a tough spot w/ the rare two games in two nights scenario. Of course, speaking of tough spots, Tulsa has really been struggling of late as they've dropped 10 in a row w/o Skylar Diggins (out for season) while going 1-8-1 ATS. I played against them their last time out as well and while this spread isn't quite as large as I'd hoped, I still feel that taking the points w/ a desperate team is the way to go.

While the Shock have fallen on hard times thanks to injuries, it's not as if they haven't been competitive.  In fact, only two of the losses during the current streak have been by double digits.  They remain in third place in the terrible West, meaning the playoffs are still a possibility if they can get their act together down the stretch. They did lead by seven points at halftime in Connecticut Wednesday night despite All-Star forward Plenette Pierson being benched. She should be back in the starting lineup tonight. When playing against the Shock their last time out, I noted that the oddsmakers really hadn't caught up to how far they've fallen, but now they have as this will be the most points they've gotten in any game this season!

This will be the fourth time this season that New York has had to play w/o rest. They are 2-1 SU so far, but have yet to win a game by more than seven points. Laying this number makes the situation all the more difficult. Plus, there's the fact that they lost to Tulsa earlier in the year, 71-62.  Granted, Diggins was in the lineup for the Shock there, but Odyssey Sims was not and she just led the team in scoring last time out.  The Liberty will be hard-pressed to match last night's shooting effort (50.7%), nor can they count on 17 turnovers like they got last night from the Sun, who actually shot better than 50% themselves. I look for a close game here.  8* Tulsa

10* Over Nationals/Giants (10:15 ET): I had San Francisco in last night's series opener as they avenged a prior sweep at the hands of the Nats w/ a 3-1 victory. It was the third straight game going under for Washington (just one run total scored!) and the fourth for the defending World Series Champs (just six total runs scored).  But I look for the offenses to break out Friday, at least for enough runs to go Over this modest total. Note that getting the number at 6.5 would be ideal considering 7 is such a key number when betting baseball totals, but even at 7 the play is valid. With the road team favored in this one, there's a stronger likelihood that the bottom of the ninth gets played & that obviously means more scoring opportunities. Those final three outs, often times, can be the difference between a game going Over or staying Under.

Last night aside, the Giants' pitching simply isn't as strong as it's been in past years. That should be obvious by the fact Matt Cain has retained a spot in the rotation despite a 5.59 ERA and 1.595 WHIP in seven starts. He's allowed at least four runs five times while failing to last longer than six innings and things have only gotten uglier of late w/ a 7.80 ERA and 2.00 WHIP his last three turns.  He actually hasn't lasted longer than six innings in any start this year. Despite Washington's recent struggles at the plate, I feel they are more than capable of breaking out tonight. They remain 59-51-4 Over for the season and had gone Over in eight of nine games prior to the current three-game Under streak.

San Francisco has actually been carried by its offense for much of the year.  I made mention in yday's analysis that they rank 2nd in all of MLB in team batting average. They haven't had 10 hits in six straight games now, and while facing Max Scherzer seems like a tall order, Scherzer has seen three of his last four starts go Over the total. (The Over is 5-1-1 in Cain's seven).  He allowed 3 HR's his last time out and that cost him as the team lost as huge favorites on the ML to Colorado, 6-4. The Nats' offense should start to see its numbers improve w/ RISP as they're just 1 for their last 11 in that scenario. 10* Over Nationals/Giants

8* Oakland (10:00 ET):  Similar to Chicago last night, Oakland has a first year HC making his home debut Friday.  That would be Jack Del Rio, who like the Bears' John Fox, has previous head coaching experience in this league.  Del Rio's Jacksonville teams went 21-15 SU in his nine-year tenure there and only twice had losing campaigns, both coming in his last three years there. In his first year, he was 3-1 SU. As discussed yday in the Bears analysis, no new head coach wants to lose his first time in front of the new fanbase, preseason or not.  The Raiders are probably in store for another long season, but tonight should be their night against the Rams, who haven't shown much the last two years in the preseason (2-6 SU) under HC Jeff Fisher.

St. Louis has it eye on the playoffs this year, but I think that's wishful thinking as this team has been touted as "up and coming" for several years now.  The bottom line is they simply don't have much talent on the offensive side of the ball.  The "Sam Bradford era" is now over, but I don't view NIck Foles as any kind of tremendous upgrade and it will be interesting to see how Foles progresses now that he doesn't have the coaching of offensive "geniuses" Andy Reid and Chip Kelly to lean on.  Also, the Rams' offensive line is a major question mark. The offensive gameplan has been as "vanilla" as it gets for years here in St. Louis and that's what I expect to see Friday night.

Meanwhile, second year Raiders QB David Carr has some new weapons to work with and I wouldn't be surprised to see this offense take some shots down the field.  Behind Carr is two signal callers w/ starting experience, Christian Ponder and Matt McGloin. While neither is very good, they'll at least be good enough here.  Del Rio seemed to really like what he saw the first week of camp and his staff will be the more motivated of the two here.  8* Oakland

8* Run Line Philadelphia (8:10 ET):  Please note that this is a run line play where I'm taking the Phillies +1.5.  Where to start here? Milwaukee really let me down in the last series, losing all three games to the Cubs, after being swept in a four-game set by them earlier in the month. I did cash them on the run line Wednesday, but the fact remains you don't see a team getting swept twice in a row by the same opponent very often. This brings us to the woeful Phillies, who are the ones coming into this weekend series w/ revenge as they were swept in a four-game set at home by the Brew Crew shortly before the All-Star Break. But despite their poor overall numbers, the Phils are a money-making 17-7 since the Break & armed w/ the revenge angle, I'll lay the juice for the "added insurance" the RL offers here.

The Phillies are admittedly terrible on the road (19-40 this year) and have, by far, the worst run differential in all of MLB at -144. But they've shockingly been one of the better teams in baseball since the All-Star Break and have a couple of things going for them here.  One is that they were off Thursday while the Brewers had to play on the road. Philly is off a win, 7-6 over Arizona Weds afternoon. Though their pitching was shelled in that series (48 hits allowed in three games!), they shouldn't have to worry much about a Milwaukee offense that has been held to three runs or less in five of its past six games w/ a .196 team batting average.  Playing w/ a day off, the Phils are a strong 8-4 this season. Two of the losses to the Brewers in the previous series were of the one-run variety, so again you can see the value of the run line. 

Adam Morgan gets the starting nod for the Phillies tonight and he's actually won two of his last three outings, including his last where he allowed just two runs over six innings. One of the runs allowed was unearned. For the season, opponents are batting just .242 off him his first time through the lineup. Meanwhile, Milwaukee starter Wily Peralta has a 6.06 ERA and 1.470 WHIP his L3 starts.  The road team has actually won the last eight times these two have met and the Phillies are on a 13-6 run here at Miller Park. They'll do no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Philadelphia (+1.5)

10* Pittsburgh (7:30 ET):  Having played in (and lost) Sunday's Hall of Fame Game, this will be preseason game #2 for the Steelers while obviously being Jacksonville's opener. Traditionally, this has been a good spot for the team coming off the HOF Game (both Bills & Giants covered last year), so even though the Black & Gold showed us next to nothing in the 14-3 loss to the Vikings, I see them bouncing back here against a Jaguars team that still possesses as little talent as any squad in the entire NFL. With first-teamers obviously limited, the Jags' lack of depth will be an issue here. 

Though the Steelers could muster only a field goal Sunday (QB Ben Roethlisberger didn't even suit up), I was impressed by the other side of the ball as really the defense could only be blamed for one of the touchdowns allowed as the other was set up by a long punt return, giving the Vikings the ball at the 1 yard line. They held Minnesota to 3 for 13 on third down as well. Now the offense does need work, but the good news is that more players will be on the field tonight, including RB Le'Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown and most importantly Roethlisberger. Now, the trio of stars will only play a series or two, but behind Big Ben, backup Landry Jones should be a lot better after going the distance in the opener.

Jacksonville is expected to play its starters for much of, if not the entire, first quarter. But again, depth is lacking and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Steelers' reserves, who have a full game under their belt, dominate late. Remember that the Jags already lost their top draft choice (Dante Fowler, Jr) for the season and second round pick RB TJ Yeldon won't play here either. The team is just 2-6 in the preseason during HC Gus Bradley's two years here, going 1-3 both times.  QB Blake Bortles, now in his second year, isn't terribly accurate and is still working on mechanics.   Two starters along the defensive line won't be playing tonight either.  Look for the Steelers to come in and take care of business thanks to the advantage of this being game #2. 10* Pittsburgh

10* NY Mets (7:10 ET):  The Pirates were able to win yesterday, thus avoiding a sweep in St. Louis, but the fact remains that these two teams appear to be headed in opposite directions. The red hot Mets also won yday, thereby completing a sweep here at home over Colorado, and have now won 11 of 13 overall (both losses by one run) to take a 4.5 game lead in the N.L. East. They are the ones who come into this series w/ legit revenge as they were swept in Pittsburgh, back in May, the lone series between the teams this season. Getting the Bucs here at Citi Field is huge because the Metropolitans are 42-18 at home as opposed to 21-34 on the road. Pittsburgh is 39-18 at home compared to 27-28 away. The series opener goes to the home team.

Also troubling for the visitors is the fact they are sending J.A. Happ to the hill. Happ, who came over from Seattle two weeks ago, owns a 1-11 team start record his L12 outings, including losses in each of the last five. Over his L3, he has a disastrous 12.54 ERA & 2.680 WHIP. He's lasted a total of just 9 1/3 IP during that time while giving up 14 runs.  His Pirates debut saw him last just 4 1/3 IP while allowing four runs on eight hits. His last turn in the rotation was actually skipped. Though well-rested (first start in 10 days), Happ is likely to struggle against a Mets' offense which leads the NL in scoring over the L3 wks at 5.6 rpg. They outscored Colorado 23-5 over the course of the just completed four-game sweep.

Bartolo Colon has hardly been setting the world on fire for the Mets (1-8 TSR L9 starts), but note in all eight team losses the offense was held to three runs or fewer.  With the probability of increased offensive production here, Colon will absolutely benefit. Note that he hasn't walked anybody over his last four starts and twice during that time went eight innings while allowing only one run. Not having to face either of the Pirates' top two pitchers - Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano - is a huge break for the Mets that they need to take advantage of. Avenging a previous series sweep is an angle I like as you don't see one team sweep another two times very often. 10* NY Mets

10* Connecticut (7:05 ET):  With three straight wins (and 8 in their last 9 games), the Liberty have moved to the top of the Eastern Conference and now have a 2.5 game lead over the field. They just swept a home and home from one of the three teams tied for second, Chicago, including a 21-point win at home Tuesday night.  The end result of this is that they are now overvalued for Friday night's trip down the road to Mohegan Sun as they face one of the teams chasing them, Connecticut.  The Sun came through for me on Wednesday, winning and covering against fading Tulsa. It was their fourth straight victory here at home and in each of the last three they've exceeded 80 pts. But I think what's really notable here is the line, which is nearly identical to what NY was favored by when they HOSTED the Sun last month.  Take the points.

On July 16th, New York downed Connecticut 64-57 as 5.5-pt home chalk. That was easily the fewest points scored in any game this season for the Sun, who shot just 30 percent from the field. Note that they haven't been held below 67 pts in any other game all year and only three other times have they failed to score 70. Here at home, they're averaging 76.8 and outscoring teams by a little more than 4 PPG for the year. Now, the Liberty come in as the league's top defensive team, but I seriously doubt they'll be able to repeat their performance at that end of the floor from the last meeting. Also, Connecticut ranks fifth in the league in points allowed and the difference between them and New York is just 4 PPG. 

Connecticut is 8-4 ATS at home this year and that includes a perfect 6-0 mark when taking points! The last time they were a home dog was seven days ago and the end result was a 14-point victory over Washington (+2). It was their third outright win as a home dog this season. After losing in D.C. two days later, the Sun rebounded w/ a strong performance, holding Tulsa to just 28.1 percent shooting in the second half Weds.  Note that the Sun haven't lost a home game by double digits all season and only two times have they lost by more than five. The Liberty, meanwhile, have a number of close road wins on their resume. I reiterate that they are overvalued here. 10* Connecticut

9* San Francisco (10:15 ET):  Both of these teams were shut out Wednesday in critical losses. For the Giants, it meant they had to settle for a split of a quick two-game set w/ the Astros, but more importantly the defending World Series champs now find themselves trailing the surging Cubs by 4.5 games for the second N.L. Wild Card. Washington, for the second time in a month, dropped two of three to the Dodgers as both series went exactly the same w/ them taking the opener only to drop the next two games opposite Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw. They too are falling into a precarious position, now trailing the first place Mets by 3.5 games and the Cubs by 6.5 games for the second Wild Card. So this is definitely a critical series for both clubs and I'm siding w/ the home team that comes in w/ revenge.

SF was swept in D.C. right before the All-Star Break, but all that means is they fall into one of my favorite situations which is to take a team that was swept in the previous series vs. their current opponent. In today's game, it's just too difficult to sweep the same opponent two straight times, so here at home, the Giants' chances of bouncing back are strong. Last night marked the second time in three games they were shutout, but the good news is they've typically bounced back well from such a defeat, winning the L3 times it's happened. This is arguably the Giants' best offense in years as they are batting a collective .270, which ranks 2nd in all of MLB. 

Granted, offense could be hard to come by against the red-hot Stephen Strasburg, who I was on his last time out. In his return from the DL, he allowed just one run and three hits in seven innings of work while striking out 12.  But that was also at home and against woeful Colorado. Due to injury concerns, Strasburg has made only four starts since since Memorial Day and while he's allowed just 4 ER and 12 hits in 20+ IP, he's faced three bad teams and the lone time he pitched on the road was against Philadelphia. His numbers away from home this season are not good at all, a 6.55 ERA and 1.516 WHIP. Overall, the team has lost 13 of 20 and been shut out in B2B games. Ryan Vogelsong will start for the second time in place of Mike Leake for the Giants and he has a solid 5-2 TSR this season at AT&T Park w/ a 3.05 ERA and 1.113 WHIP. 9* San Francisco

8* Dallas (10:00 ET):  This number, which has crept above a field goal, simply seems too high considering we have a playoff vs. non-playoff team situation.  Granted, that shouldn't mean much this time of year, but the Cowboys remain the better team overall and look like a solid value here, even on the road.  I feel a big reason for the line movement here is the fact that QB Tony Romo won't play, nor will WR Dez Bryant, but you have to imagine the contributions from both were going to be next to nothing anyway.  This appears to be an overreaction by the public. This is the fifth time in six seasons that these teams have played in the postseason. After a terrible showing here in San Diego last season (lost 27-7), America's Team will be hungry for atonement. Take the points.

The Cowboys were in fact 0-4 SU/ATS last year in the preseason, something that won't be lost on the coaching staff.  HC Jason Garrett has actually had only one winning preseason in four years here and going back to 2013 has dropped seven of eight. While the team did surprise last year and finish 12-4, winning the NFC East, I do not expect them to simply "phone it in" tonight. Behind QB Brandon Weeden, there is a battle for the third string that will take place, so I expect both youngsters - Dustin Vaughan and Jameill Showers - to take this game quite seriously.

San Diego, coming off yet another mediocre regular season campaign, is just 3-5 SU in the preseason under HC Mike McCoy.  Unlike Dallas, the Chargers' first team offense (including QB Philip Rivers) is expected to play some, but I think the issue here will be a defense that may not be able to stand up to an outstanding Cowboys' offensive line.  The Lightning Bolts are also dealing w/ distractions coming into this season, namely Rivers' contract situation and a possible move to Los Angeles. Expect both to be major stories throughout the year.  I just think that laying more than a field goal in the opener is a bad idea w/ a suspect team like the Chargers.  8* Dallas

10* LA Angels (8:10 ET): Admittedly, this is going to be a tough spot for the Angels as they come off a tough 13-inning loss last night in Chicago.  Now they must travel to Kansas City where the AL Champion Royals have gone an impressive 39-19 for the season (though they did lose here yday). After being swept in the Windy City, Los Angeles has now dropped an unfathomable nine straight on the road. But, speaking of sweeps, they have revenge here after dropping all three games to KC at home all the way back in April.  As I repeat (almost daily!), teams just don't sweep the same opponent twice in a row. Therefore, the Halos (who are a slight favorite) look like a real solid value tonight as they desperately need a win here.

As briefly touched on earlier, the Royals did lose themselves last night, 7-4 to Detroit. That cost them a chance at a sweep. I was on them the previous two games, so it was definitely a good time to jump off. Now, I feel it's a good time to go against as they will send Jeremy Guthrie to the hill.  Guthrie has been terrible of late w/ an 8.50 ERA & 1.944 WHIP his L3 starts. He's allowed a total of 31 hits during that time (18 IP) and allowed 18 runs. The team was fortunate to come out on top his last time out (7-6 over the White Sox), but the fact remains Guthrie has both the worst ERA (5.84) among all American League starters and opponents are hitting .320 against him for the season, also the worst mark in the A.L.

It's not as if the Angels played poorly in the White Sox series.  The issue was a lack of timely hitting.  They were a horrifying 1 for 32 w/ runners in scoring position in the three games, including 0 for 15 yday alone!  Speaking of revenge, not only do they have it from earlier this season, but also from LY's ALDS when they were shockingly swept by the upstart Royals. Overall, they've lost seven straight times to Kansas City, so they're certainly due. Starter Garrett Richards has a better WHIP than ERA, which usually calls for better success in the future, and has 18 K's his L2 starts. He hasn't gone against KC at any point during the team's losing streak to them. Look for LA's offense to get to Guthrie early & that will be enough for Richards. 10* LA Angels

10* Chicago (8:00 ET):  This is technically new Bears' HC John Fox's home debut.  Taking first year head coaches in their home debut in preseason has historically been a profitable angle and Chicago certainly looks undervalued in this spot laying less than a field goal.  Part of that is Miami is quietly becoming a pretty trendy pick to "break out" this season in the AFC.  But while I'm "on board" w/ the Fins in 2015, I equally am so w/ the Bears as well as after underachieving for two seasons under Marc Trestman, they should improve noticeably under the veteran Fox.  Playing at home for the first time under him should result in them being the more motivated side here and no coach wants to lose his debut in front of a new fanbase, preseason or not. 

Year four is considered "make or break" for HC Joe Philbin in Miami. Last year in the Preseason, the Dolphins went 3-1 SU (2-1-1 ATS), but averaged only 17.2 points per game (15.0 on the road).  It was their first winning preseason under Philbin as they were a disastrous 0-4 SU in his first year here (three double digits losses) and 2-3 SU/ATS in 2013.   Starters will play tonight, including QB Ryan Tannehill, but not more than a quarter. Rookie receiver DeVante Parker will not play at all, nor will offseason acquisition Kenny Stills, so we might not see Tannehill airing it out much tonight. The offensive line, now two years removed from that embarrassing bullying scandal, remains a question mark.

The Bears were just 2-2 SU in the preseason last year, but did win both home games thanks to averaging 27.0 PPG.  However, they simply didn't have much success here at Soldier Field during the regular season under Trestman, which is something Fox has certainly taken note of.  While w/ Carolina, Fox was a big winner for bettors in the preseason, three times going a perfect 4-0.  In Denver, it was a different situation b/c of Peyton Manning, who never plays this time of year and Fox had a veteran team that had it's "eye" on the regular season. Here, he inherits a team that was very disappointing a season ago. Jay Cutler, for what it's worth, has not thrown an INT in 11 practices so far.  10* Chicago

8* Milwaukee (2:20 ET):  I'm taking a rare flier on the underdog Brew Crew on the money line here as this is their last chance to avenge a prior sweep at the hands of the division rival Cubs. Normally, I would not play a dog this large on the ML, but given my belief in the revenge angle and this being the series finale, it's worth the shot.  I did cash Milwaukee yday, on the run line, as they lost 3-2 in 10 innings. The Cubs are undoubtedly a hot team right now, but they've had a great deal of good fortune come their way (oh the irony for this franchise!) of late, namely last night being their MLB-leading 11th walkoff win of the season. Despite being 16 games above .500, they have a run differential of only +23, making their expected WL record 59-53. So, their due to start "giving some back." 

Granted, it's going to be tough to make the case for Milwaukee in this situation given that they have to face Jon Lester, who is 3-0 w/ a 1.84 ERA his L4 starts.  However, his last start wasn't particularly efficient as only 60 percent of his pitches went for strikes. Lester may not be able to count on much support either given that the Cubs' offense finished w/ only four hits for the second time in three games yday.  Something else to consider is that the Cubs are just a .500 team in day games this season, plus as I mentioned in yday's analysis, they've actually been outscored for the season here at Wrigley Field. I am of the opinion that the Cubs, while surging, are simply not as good as their record.

Milwaukee is hardly a team of world-beaters, but they've gotten some pretty good pitching over the L8 games as opponents are barely hitting .200 against them during that time. Tyler Cravy will take the mound for the fourth time this season this afternoon after having his first bad start of the season last Friday vs. St. Louis. But that was also the Cardinals second time seeing him & this will be the Cubs' first. The first time Cravy faced off w/ the Cards, he held them to just one run on four hits over 7 IP. He followed that up w/ another quality start vs. Atlanta.  I understand it's risky, but look for the Brewers to "steal one" Thursday afternoon. 8* Milwaukee

10* LA Angels (8:10 ET): As you may have heard, home teams won all 15 games yesterday. That's never happened since MLB went to 30 teams back in 1998.  One would then surmise that at least a few road teams will strike back Wednesday and one prime candidate in my eyes is the Angels, who look to be avoid being swept here in Chicago. I'm really not sure how the White Sox continue to stay close to .500 as for much of the year they've had the worst run differential in the entire American League, a number that's currently -64, which is more indicative of a 48-win team (current record: 53-58), making them still one of the bigger overachievers in baseball despite being below .500. The Angels need this game badly as the Wild Card race has grown tight, plus they can still potentially pull even w/ the first place Astros in the West.

This will be the third straight game where the White Sox are sending out a southpaw to start.  Monday it was Chris Sale and then yday Carlos Rodon and those two combined to help hold the Halos to just two runs and 11 hits thus far in the series.  But I wouldn't be expecting a similar strong outing from veteran John Danks tonight as he's posted a 5.62 ERA & 1.562 WHIP his L3 starts.  The team has actually won five of the last seven times he's taken the mound, but seven walks in his last two starts is cause for concern. Los Angeles actually came into this series at 16-10 vs. LH starters, so it's a surprise they've struggled so much at the plate. While eight straight road losses is concerning, the Halos are clearly the better team here in my mind & teams that are .500 or better generally do a good job of not getting swept.

It's not like the White Sox have a strong lineup either.  They had just four hits yday and are only 8-12 vs. southpaw starters themselves. They average just 3.4 runs per game here at US Cellular Field.  Tonight, they face rookie Andrew Heany, who is off his worst outing to date, yet the good news is the team still won, which they've done in seven of his eight starts thus far.  On the road, he's posted an impressive 1.83 ERA and 1.017 WHIP. The team is 5-2 as a road fave in the -125 to -150 price range this season. 10* LA Angels

8* Run Line Milwaukee (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Brewers +1.5.  This did not work out for me yesterday as an early 6-1 lead for the Cubs proved to be too much for the Brew Crew to overcome. Thus, the revenge angle is still in play here as Chicago swept Milwaukee at Miller Park earlier this month. My regular clients will tell you that one team sweeping another twice in a row just doesn't happen very often, thus the visitors are still the play here and I'll again lay the juice for the added insurance as admittedly the Cubs are a hot team right now (won 11 of 12), but they've played 42 one-run games this season, which is tied for third most in all of baseball.

As hot as the Cubs have been, they still only have a YTD run differential of +22, which is not what you'd expect from a team w/ the fourth best record in baseball (but third best in division!).  For the sake of comparison, both Arizona (exactly .500) and Oakland (12 games under) have outscored their opponents by a greater margin this season.  Starter Jason Hammel, who has pitched well at Wrigley this season (1.006 WHIP), has a 6.07 ERA and 1.649 WHIP his L3 starts overall after lasting only four innings his last time out. He hasn't made it through six in any of his four outings since the All-Star Break, which is concerning.  He is 7-0 lifetime vs. the Brewers, including a win July 31st, but again that's what the run line is for. Seven of Hammel's last 10 starts have seen a final margin of just one run.

Milwaukee will send Matt Garza out to the bump and he looked good his last time out, giving the team seven strong innings where he allowed just one run on two hits.  That was after facing the Cubs, where one mistake (3-run HR) cost him as otherwise he allowed just three hits over six innings in a 4-2 loss.  Garza is just one out shy of coming in on a streak of four straight quality starts.  The Brewers offense should be more potent tonight w/ Ryan Braun back in the lineup.   The Cubs, who are hitting a collective .231 at home this season, have actually been outscored this year at the Friendly Confines.  8* Run Line Milwaukee (+1.5).

10* Connecticut (7:05 ET):  This being the WNBA, I simply don't think the books have been paying close enough attention to catch on to just how far Tulsa has fallen in recent weeks. That should be obvious by the fact that they are a bankroll busting 1-7-1 ATS during the course of a nine-game losing streak, which continued Sunday (when they were actually FAVORED - by 7 pts!) at home vs. Atlanta.  What has to be depressing for the Shock is that they were the talk of the league at the start of the season when they were 10-4 SU, but a number of injuries (most notably a season-ender to Skylar Diggins) and an impending move to Dallas next season have this franchise almost at a "lame-duck" status.

Now Tulsa hits the road to play a Connecticut team that's won three straight on its home floor, the last two of which have been decided by double digit margins. The Sun lost the second leg of a home and home vs. Washington on Sunday as they shot just 34.4 percent from the field. I expect drastic improvement on that number here tonight.  The team is shooting 43.7% for the year at home while averaging 76.5 PPG.  Tulsa not only is allowing nearly 80 points per game on the road this season, but they've allowed four straight opponents to score 84 or more. Sunday marked a nadir defensively as they allowed 98 pts to an Atlanta team that resides in the basement of the Eastern Conference. 

Save for last Thursday's trip to LA, the Shock surprisingly haven't been blown out all that often, which I suppose is why the oddsmakers haven't made too significant an adjustment with them. But the starting five is now changing on almost a game by game basis and what you have to remember is that this franchise has won 12 or fewer games each of the last five years.  Unlike in the West, where everyone except Minnesota and Phoenix is terrible, the East could see one decent team left out of the playoffs and right now that would be Connecticut, who sits in the fifth. The Sun are 1.5 games back (tied in the loss column) of fourth-place Chicago, so this is one they really have to have. Laying a small number at home should not be an issue. 10* Connecticut

8* Arizona (3:40 ET):  So much for the Phillies' "turning a corner."  When these teams first played this season (back in May), it was Philly registering their only sweep of the first half. Now, the D'backs are on the verge of returning the favor after B2B 13-run efforts the L2 nights. I was of course on them in Monday's series opener and then last night was more of the same as an 11-run explosion in the second inning essentially put the game away right off the bat. The Phils' 16-5 run immediately following the All-Star Break was clearly a mirage as they are still a hideous 18-40 on the road this season, not to mention their YTD run differential is now down to -145, which is nearly TWICE as bad as the second worst team!

Home teams won all 15 games yday, marking the first time that's ever happened since MLB went to 30 teams in '98. This quick turnaround for the series finale clearly favors Arizona, who is also 7-1 this season as a home favorite in the -150 to -175 price range.  Philadelphia, meanwhile, is just 3-7 following a game where they allowed 10+ runs.  The D'backs offense has pounded out a total of 47 hits its L3 games, all wins, and should continue to produce here against Aaron Nola, who has been fortunate to get a ton of run support in two of his four starts thus far. Nola needed 99 pitches to get through six innings his last time out, so he could be a little worse for wear here. The Phillies are 17-23 in day games this season.

Going for the sweep, the D'backs send Chase Anderson out to the bump as he looks to build upon an impressive start his last time out. Anderson delivered seven scoreless innings against Cincinnati last Friday, allowing only four hits in the process.  The Phillies lineup he faces today may be even weaker than usual as 2B Chase Utley is set to clear waivers (and thus won't play), plus 3B Maikel Franco left last night's game w/ a bruised wrist. Philly is just a really bad team, easily the worst in all of baseball, and going against them at this price seems like a real value play to me.  8* Arizona

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): This is a huge series for both playoff hopefuls and a potential postseason preview. As I surmised they might, Washington drew "first blood" in the series opener, winning 8-3 and it wasn't even that close as they led 8-0 going into the bottom half of the eighth. However, the good news for those wearing Dodger Blue tonight is that Zack Greinke will be on the bump. While Greinke and Clayton Kershaw have an ERA of 2.12, the rest of the staff is at a subpar 4.25. When these two clubs hooked up last month (in D.C.), the Nationals took the series opener, but then dropped the next two to Greinke and Kershaw. I look for history to continue to repeat itself Tuesday as the home team evens things up.

The Dodgers were swept over the weekend in Pittsburgh, so add in last night's loss & you have the team's longest losing streak of the season. They were in a bad spot last night, coming off a painful loss Sunday night and didn't have one of their top two pitchers to lean on. Things should go better here. Having dropped the series opener, Los Angeles is now the more desperate team. Remember that Washington hadn't been playing well of late either; they'd lost 7 of 10 coming in, including two of three at home to Colorado over the weekend. Homefield advantage also matters here as the Dodgers are 37-19 at Chavez Ravine (12-4 in the -150 to -175 range) while the Nats have a losing road record overall & are winless (0-2) in that same range on the money line.

Make no mistake about it though, Greinke is the big reason while the support will be on the home team in this one.  He is off his worst outing all year, where he allowed six runs (on just seven hits), but the team still came out on top of Philadelphia.  Look for a bounce back tonight from Greinke, who has given up 2 ER or fewer in 15 of 17 starts. He has a phenomenal 0.780 WHIP here at home (plus the best overall ERA in baseball) and it was on the road where he shut out the Nats last month, holding them to only three hits in eight innings of work (11-1 KW ratio). Washington starter Joe Ross has the best KW ratio (47-4) in his first seven big league starts ever, but is due for regression. 8* LA Dodgers.

8* Kansas City (8:10 ET):  I mentioned in yday's analysis that the Royals came into this series w/ legit revenge after dropping two of three last week in Detroit. Johnny Cueto helped avenge one of those defeats last night as he himself atoned for a stunning loss in that previous series by turning in a CG shutout Monday on ESPN. I said that the oddsmakers probably couldn't make Monday's line high enough to deter Royals action and sure enough w/ the public's full support (and mine!) they rolled to a 4-0 victory. Curiously though, tonight's line is significantly lower despite the situation being the same. Yordano Ventura may not be Cueto, but he's certainly good enough to lead the AL Central leaders to victory once again.

This is the second straight game where "immediate revenge" is present among the starters as Ventura lost opposite Anibal Sanchez last Thursday, 8-6, as a slight favorite. Neither starter pitched well as Ventura allowed six runs in five innings while Sanchez gave up four in six. As my regulars know, in a situation such as this, I often choose to go w/ the pitcher whose team lost the previous matchup. It's pretty rare to see one pitcher beat another in B2B starts. Sanchez has hardly impressed this year, especially lately w/ a 6.50 ERA and 1.556 WHIP his L3 starts. Ventura has had his struggles as well, but note the last time he pitched at home, he went seven innings, allowing only one run & beat Dallas Keuchel. 

The AL Central is the Royals for the taking as Minnesota's good fortune is beginning to turn while the Tigers have simply "waved the white flag."  I mentioned yday that Detroit has a real "Jekyll and Hyde" offense and sure enough they scored fewer than three runs for the seventh time in ten games. Monday was their second straight game w/ only four hits. They didn't get a single runner past second base against Cueto. Again, Ventura won't be quite as dominant, but that shouldn't matter as Sanchez has a 5.59 ERA in three starts vs. KC this season. The Royals have won 15 of 18 here at home, including six straight and the Tigers have lost six in a row here at Kauffman Stadium where the Royals are 38-18 for the year. 8* Kansas City

8* Run Line Milwaukee (8:05 ET):  Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Brewers +1.5.  The Cubs probably couldn't be any more attractive in the public's eye as they've won 10 of 11 to climb into the upper echelon of MLB in terms of won-loss record (top four). But might a day off result in a cool down? The Brew Crew have revenge here after they were swept at home by the Cubbies at the start of the month, which helped kickstart the Northsiders run.  The revenge angle is one that I really like as it simply is too difficult to sweep the same opponent two straight times. Just to play it safe, I'll lay the juice to get the added insurance that the +1.5 offers, but a win by the underdog wouldn't surprise me here.

Milwaukee is off a win itself, 5-4 Sunday over St. Louis at home, after being shut out the two previous days.  They will send Taylor Jungmann to the hill and he's posted a 0.929 WHIP in six road starts (5-1 TSR).  He pitched well in the last Cubs' series, giving up just three runs (2 ER) in 5 2/3 IP, but it wasn't enough.  He followed that up w/ an outstanding outing against San Diego last Wednesday as he went seven innings and allowed just two hits, finishing w/ a strong 8-0 KW ratio.  Over his L6 starts overall, Jungmann's ERA is a sparkling 1.90.  It was a four-game sweep the Brewers suffered, at home no less, the last time they faced the Cubs, which you don't see too often. So again, the revenge angle is strong. Chicago has not beaten Milwaukee five straight times since '08.

The Cubs have overachieved somewhat in terms of record as their YTD run differential of +19, which is indicative of a 57-win team, not a 62-win team, which they are. Also, no team in all of MLB has played more one-run games than have the Cubs (42) w/ the exception of division-leading St. Louis. So, I do think they are at a point where they're somewhat overvalued. Starter Dan Haren came up short in his Cubs debut, the team's only loss in the L11 games. He allowed two home runs in Pittsburgh and here at Wrigley his career numbers are not good (5.86 ERA).  I don't see the road team losing this game by more than one run. 8* Run Line Milwaukee (+1.5)

10* Under A's/Blue Jays (7:07 ET):  Toronto is, by far and away, baseball's highest scoring team. Over the course of 113 games, they've scored 100+ runs more than all but one team & that one team (the Yankees), they just swept over the weekend - in the Bronx. While the club is known for its prolific offense, its pitching was front and center during the weekend sweep, holding the Yanks to a total of just one run over the course of the three games. These two teams could probably hold a support group for one-run losses prior to the game tonight (combined 25-49 in that situation), but I'm avoiding the side altogether here as I think the red-hot Jays stay Under for the seventh time in the last nine games.

Drew Hutchinson has managed a 3-0 team start record his L3 starts despite a 7.07 ERA & 1.857 WHIP. Normally, that would have me "shying away" from the Toronto starter here, but Hutchinson is a much different pitcher at Rogers Centre. He has a 9-2 TSR thanks to a 2.69 ERA & 1.149 WHIP. Over those L3 starts, he's allowed a total of 17 runs, but six were of the unearned variety.  A key aspect to Hutchinson's success has been the tremendous run support he's received (over 8.0 rpg!). In fact, the amount of run support is on pace to be the highest for any starter in 15 seasons! That simply cannot be counted on over the long-term and w/ the Blue Jays' offense having cooled off a bit in the Yankees series (10 runs, 20 hits in three games), I don't see him getting the usual support here. 

Helping our cause here is the fact that Oakland is dead last in runs scored since July 21st at 2.95 per game.  The most runs they've scored in any of their last 11 games is five. They've also allowed three or less seven times during that same stretch, including five times allowing one or zero runs. Only two of the games would have gone over tonight's total.  Winners of three in a row, the A's turn to Kendall Graveman tonight and while he's winless over his last five starts, he's looked good in B2B outings where he's allowed only 3 ER in 12+ IP. While the only previous series between these teams this season saw the total go 1-1-1, the Under was 7-0 in last year's meetings. 10* Under A's/Blue Jays

8* Arizona (9:40 ET): I'll repeat here what I said yday - What has gotten into the Phillies?  Despite still sporting what is, by far, MLB's worst run differential (-123, 50 runs worse than the next team), the club has somehow found a way to go 16-5 since the All-Star Break, which is the best record in all of baseball during that time! They just swept the Padres over the weekend, in San Diego, which was only their fourth sweep all season. Three of them have come since the Break and the other, coincidentally enough, came back in May against the team they face here.  Arizona, by the numbers, may be the most mediocre of all teams, but they have revenge here at home and I like that and them to take the series opener.

Consider that even after Philadelphia swept San Diego, they are still only 18-38 in road games this season.  This streak of theirs is due to halt, sooner rather than later. Tonight is a rare opportunity to cash in on the fact that the public is actually supporting them. Thus, we've got a pretty nice value on an Arizona team that has gone 6-1 in 2015 as a home favorite in the -150 to -175 range.  The D'backs are actually getting less respect from the oddsmakers than a San Diego team that they are three games up on in the standings.  Over the weekend, they took two of three from Cincinnati here at Chase Field. Though they've struggled in the past vs. Philly, it's just too hard to sweep the same opponent twice in a row.

It also helps here that the Phils are sending out Aaron Harang, who over his last three starts has a woeful 7.80 ERA and 2.467 WHIP.  All of those starts came at home as well and saw him last just five innings every time out.  Five walks played a major role in four runs allowed his last trip to the mound, which resulted in a 4-3 loss to the Dodgers.  He has just two wins in his last 16 starts vs. Arizona, who counters w/ Rubby De La Rosa, who has been one of the D'backs more effective starters of late. He's 3-0 w/ a 2.42 ERA his last four starts overall and in his last one here at home he went the distance tossing four-hit shutout.  This is a very rare chance to "sell high" on the Phillies.  8* Arizona

5* Kansas City (8:10 ET):  I expected there to be an early line move here & that's what's happened as the oddsmakers probably won't be able to make this line high enough to deter some serious Royals' action. Normally, that might have me "shying away," but in this instance we have a pitcher (Johnny Cueto) still looking for his first win in the American League while at the same time also having "immediate revenge" from his last start.  Who ever would have guessed that the Tigers' Matt Boyd would be able to out-duel Cueto (albeit ever so slightly), which is what he did last week in a 2-1 Detroit victory.  That series saw the Tigers take two of three, but KC responded by sweeping the White Sox over the weekend & now get their division rival at Kauffman Stadium where they've gone 37-18 for the year.

Looking at Boyd's first two starts of the season (both of which came w/ Toronto), last Wednesday's result seems even more improbable.  Boyd came over in the David Price deal & little was expected based on the fact he had posted a woeful 14.85 ERA.  The final time he started for the Blue Jays saw him allow seven runs while failing to record a single out! Simply put, I do not expect a repeat performance from him tonight.  It also should be noted that Detroit's "Jekyll and Hyde" offense has scored two runs or less in four of their last six, so support should be hard to come by, especially against Cueto. The Tigers just dropped two of three to Boston at home, which is not a good sign. Remember that this is a franchise that essentially "waved the white flag" for 2015 at the trade deadline. 

The Royals, meanwhile, have the best record in the American League and I think are on the verge of putting the rest of the division to bed. They enter Monday w/ an 11.5-game lead in the AL Central (easily the biggest of any division leader) and Cueto is certainly in line for a win after pitching well in each of his first two starts w/ his new team. He's allowed just 5 runs off 12 hits in 13 IP and for the year certainly deserves better than an 11-10 TSR considering a 2.69 ERA & 0.961 WHIP. KC is 14-3 its last 17 home games while Detroit is 4-10 its L14 on the road. The Tigers have also lost five straight here at Kauffman Stadium.  5* Kansas City

10* Under Rockies/Mets (7:05 ET):  For all their pitching exploits, the Mets have now gone Over in six of their last seven games, including four straight. They also just dropped B2B games in Tampa Bay after a season best seven-game win streak. Their opponents, Colorado, happen to be one of the top five Over teams in the sport and have also seen six of their last seven contests finish that way. But for tonight's series opener, we're able to grab a good number thanks to a line move and as we know 7 is such a key number in betting baseball totals. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the home team bounce back here, which means there's a good chance that the bottom of the ninth won't be played and thus fewer outs needed and fewer scoring opportunities. Take the Under.

I was surprised to find that the Over is 7-2 in Mets' starter Jon Niese's nine home starts. At one point this season, the Under had cashed in four straight starts for him, but it turns out that three of those were on the road. However, he is coming off B2B strong outings, one on the road and the other here at home, where he allowed just 1 ER in 6+ IP. Over the past two months, his overall numbers have improved dramatically w/ his ERA lowering by nearly a full point and he's 10 for 11 during that time in terms of quality starts. Another good sign is that last time out, he recorded 10 outs via ground outs as opposed to just five by the fly ball. He's only walked four batters total in his L5 starts. As noted previously many times, the Colorado offense dips dramatically on the road as they score about two full runs per game less than they do at Coors Field.  Here at Citi Field, visiting teams are averaging just 3.3 rpg for the year.

The Mets' offense scored just 11 runs total in the three games vs. Tampa Bay and ranks near the bottom in virtually all "traditional" categories. They are 28th in runs scored and slugging, 29th in OBP and dead last in team batting average.  This is all great news for Rockies' starter Jon Gray, who will be making only his second career start here. Judging only by the final score, his first doesn't look so good, but he allowed only three of the 10 runs Seattle scored in that one. These two teams have combined to strike out a total of 55 times their last two games! 10* Under Rockies/Mets

10* LA Dodgers (8:05 ET):  I'm going w/ the Dodgers tonight as they look to avoid the sweep in Pittsburgh.  Admittedly, the Pirates are a very strong home team. Winning the first two games of this three-game set have gotten them to 38-18 this season at PNC Park, a home record that is one-half game better than the Dodgers and trails only division mate St. Louis for best in baseball. While LA's losing road record is a tad bit concerning, I think it speaks volumes that Dodger Blue remains favored on the money line for tonight's finale. The final margin has been one run in both games so far and it should be pointed out that the Dodgers finished w/ a 13-9 edge in hits last night. You'll recall that Friday's series opener went 10 innings.

Also key to last night's victory for the Bucs was a three-run homer by starter Francisco Liriano.  Obviously, that kind of offensive production cannot be counted on from the pitcher's spot.  The starter tonight will be Charlie Morton, who had been struggling before shutting out the Reds his last time out. In his five starts previous, Morton's ERA was 5.04.  Over a six-start stretch in June-July, he gave up four or more runs four times in six starts.  His last time out was probably his best start all year, so some regression is likely. A 7-0 KW ratio last Sunday vs. the Reds was easily his best in any start this year.  Also, note that Joey Votto was absent from the Reds lineup that day. Wear and tear could be an issue for Morton, who has thrown at least 93 pitches in six of his last seven starts.

Pitching here for the Dodgers will be Alex Wood, making his second start since coming over from Atlanta. The first did not go "according to script" as he allowed 4 ER in a shocking 6-2 loss to the Phillies. But this will be the third time he's seen this Bucs' lineup this season and already we've seen him toss 7+ scoreless innings here at PNC Park.  Keep in mind that it was a reliever, not he, that gave up the deciding grand slam Tuesday in his Dodgers' debut.  Wood has the better KW ratio for the season compared to Morton. This has been a relatively even series and for the Dodgers it would be a shame to leave w/o a victory.  10* LA Dodgers

8* Pittsburgh (8:00 ET):  We've seen a fairly significant line move for this year's Hall of Fame game, as the spread has crossed the key number of three, thus despite likely not having QB Ben Roethlisberger (or RB Leveon Bell), the Steelers plus the points looks like the right way to go.  As you likely are aware, these preseason games are not decided by the marquee players anyway. The backups, who are fighting for roster spots, will be the ones giving the added effort in this one and thus I think that taking points is the way to go.

Minnesota is coming into the 2015 season w/ much fanfare.  They are a trendy sleeper team of many due to the return of RB Adrian Peterson, not to mention the emergence of QB Teddy Bridgewater. But I'm not really buying it. They were 7-9 SU a year ago, but didn't beat a single team w/ a winning record.  I still think they are a year or maybe two away from being a playoff team. The first team offense will be on the field, albeit for just a series or two, Sunday night, which I think has played into the line move.  But provided they don't score both times (unlikely in first "real" action), that's pretty meaningless. Peterson will not play. Both QB Bridgewater and HC Mike Zimmer have also been dealing w/ family issues leading up to the game.

There was a huge Steeler contingent at last night's HOF ceremony, so expect them to have the edge in fan support tonight in Canton. While that may not sound like a big deal, in a situation such as this (where neither coach is likely that interested in winning), that could be a big deal and result in the Steelers giving more effort late in the game. I just wouldn't want to be caught laying points, especially more than a field goal, in this setting. Defense, for Pittsburgh, is their priority coming into the year after that side of the ball really struggled in 2014.  I'm not really sold on Minnesota's depth either.  8* Pittsburgh

7* Run Line Miami (5:05 ET):  Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Marlins +1.5.  Is the joke on me here?  I've previously taken Miami in all three games of this series so far as they entered in w/ revenge from being swept by the division rival Braves earlier in the year. As my regular clients will tell you, I am of the belief that it is simply too hard to sweep the same opponent two times in a row.  But don't tell that to Atlanta apparently as they are now 10-2 head to head w/ Miami and that my friends is why they find themselves ahead of the Fish in the NL East standings despite an inferior run differential. Losers of 17 of 22 since the All-Star Break, the Marlins now own the worst record in MLB, which scares me and that's why I'm turning to the run line in this one.

I would argue that Friday's game where they had Jose Fernandez starting was Miami's "most likely" win of the series "on paper," but there are a few factors at work here that have me thinking they just might snap their long losing streak to the Braves.  First and foremost is Atlanta starter Shelby Miller, who has an 0-9 team start record his L9 outings.  Miller has actually pitched relatively well during that stretch, but his offense has given him next to nothing as they've tallied three runs or less in all nine games (12 total!). Now this will be the fourth time he's faced the Marlins this season and thus far he's allowed just 1 ER in 19 IP, including a complete game the last time.  But familiarity often breeds success and I think the Marlins' hitters should fare better at the plate here.

Marlins starter Brad Hand has also faced Atlanta three times this year, albeit all in relief efforts, but hasn't allowed a single run in eight innings. In his last start against them, which came 11 months ago, he also held them scoreless. Note that there have only been three times this season when Atlanta has won more than three in a row. I also refuse to believe the Marlins are as bad as their post-All Star Break record shows. They will do no worse than a one-run loss here.  7* Run Line Miami (+1.5)

10* Hamilton (5:00 ET):  Laying points, especially this many, appears on the surface to be hazardous to one's health this year in CFL.  Last night, I cashed a wire to wire winner on Saskatchewan (+9.5), meaning that all three previous games here in Week 7 have been decided by four points or less.  Despite this trend, I feel safe in "swallowing the points" here w/ the favored Ti-Cats, who despite a rather pedestrian 3-2 SU record have outscored foes by 47 pts this season (best in the Eastern Division) after an impressive 34-18 win over Toronto Monday in their first home game of the season. Meanwhile, Winnipeg comes in w/ a -40 scoring differential (2nd worst in the league) even after beating BC 23-13 their last time out. Conventional wisdom has essentially failed in all three CFL matchups this week, but I think the numbers state that Hamilton is likely to blowout the Blue Bombers tonight.

I haven't even mentioned yet how this is a rematch from Week 2 when the Ti-Cats went West and destroyed the Bombers 52-26, finishing the game w/ a 429-244 edge in total yardage. Even after factoring the change in homefield advantage, the oddsmakers haven't made much of an adjustment at all from that last meeting in terms of the spread.  Remember that Hamilton has not lost here at Tim Hortons Stadium since it opened last year. Their average margin of victory during that time is  an impressive 10.8 points per game (8-0 SU).  The 52 pts they scored on Winnipeg back in Week 2 is the high water mark this year in the league & the offense also is off an impressive showing vs. the Argos last week. 

Defensively, the Ti-Cats are clearly the better team here as so far they're giving up an average of just over 21 PPG.  When facing the league's best defensive team (Edmonton), earlier in the year, Winnipeg scored only three points. I realize that pivot Drew Willy was knocked out of the game the last time these teams played, but he alone can not eradicate the discrepancy that was the final margin in that game. The Bombers have needed a +3 TO margin in two of their three victories so far, something they won't get here, so lay the points. 10* Hamilton

6* San Diego (4:10 ET):  Somebody break up the Phillies. A team that by just about every measure (-125 run differential is -53 more than 2nd worst) is MLB's worst has somehow managed to run off a 15-5 mark since the All-Star Break, meaning the one category where they now aren't last in baseball is record.  They've taken two so far here in San Diego (despite being outhit in both games), which is remarkable in the sense that the Phils came in having previously gone 15-38 in road games while being outscored by roughly two full runs per game.  I cannot see the Padres getting swept at home here, thus I'll back them just like I did in Friday's opener where they blew a lead and lost in extra innings.

The Padres have lost five in a row overall, but should definitely have their fair share of chances at the plate today against Philly starter Jerome Williams, who has been a complete disaster on the road w/ a 1-8 TSR, 8.01 ERA and 1.898 WHIP.  Williams is off a shocking win his last time out, as +205 ML dog over the Dodgers, but was probably lucky there to get away w/ allowing just one run in five innings as he allowed seven hits, not to mention walked three batters.  Only once in his 17 starts this season has Williams lasted longer than seven innings. He'd previously allowed 4+ ER in five of six starts.  Though the team got the win in his last start, he didn't factor into the decision and remains winless over his previous nine starts overall w/ a 7.17 ERA.

This season has been nothing short of disastrous for San Diego, who themselves are near the bottom of the league-record wise and are now closer to the worst record than they are the Wild Card. But they remain a prohibitive favorite over the Phillies and for good reason. In my opinion, the gap between Philadelphia and the rest of the league remains cavernous. Padres' starter Andrew Cashner has pitched better than the numbers show and he's been victimized by some of the worst run support in all of baseball. He's made it to the sixth inning in six consecutive starts and last time out allowed just 2 ER.  They are not in this price range often (1-0 this season!) which speaks volumes about Williams. 6* San Diego

8* Over Cardinals/Brewers (2:10 ET): Right off the bat, I'll concede that making the case here for an Over is going to be pretty tough. You have St. Louis, by far the top Under team in all of baseball (now 39-67-4 in all games), who has shut Milwaukee out in B2B days. Furthermore, the Brew Crew will be answering here w/ a red-hot pitcher of their own, Jimmy Nelson, who over his L3 starts has not allowed a single earned run while also posting a 0.822 WHIP.  But so often we see that a certain level of play becomes unsustainable and that's what the case is here.  The Cardinals pitching staff has actually delivered three consecutive shutouts, but I don't see starter John Lackey keeping up the trend today as you can look for more runs to be scored than expected. Take the Over.

For the record, St. Louis last allowed a run in the 4th inning of Wednesday's 4-3 win over Cincinnati. Since then, it's been a remarkable 36 straight frames where they've kept their opponents off the scoreboard.  Milwaukee, held to just two hits Saturday, has struck out a total of 20 times in the series.  But they get what could be termed a "minor break" here as they face Lackey on the road, where his numbers aren't all that impressive. In 10 starts away from Busch Stadium, Lackey has a 3-7 TSR, 4.22 ERA and 1.290 WHIP.  While his L2 starts have both been low-scoring, he did allow 3 ER his last time out (1st time in 10 starts) and that was on the road.

In sizing up the Brewers' chances of avoiding the sweep, it must be noted that Nelson has struggled mightily in his career against St. Louis.  He's 0-3 in three starts w/ a 10.05 ERA.  Earlier this year, he was tagged for seven runs - in just five innings of work. In two starts against them last season, he allowed a total of 12 runs (10 earned) in just 9 1/3 IP.  Incredibly, Milwaukee has been shut out five of the last nine times they've played St. Louis. They'll obviously need to score some here to aid in our cause, but I do believe that the Redbirds will be the ones handling the bulk of the scoring. Note that I got the number at 7.0, which has since disappeared, but this play is still valid! 8* Over Cardinals/Brewers

8* Phoenix (2:05 ET):  This will be the second game in three days for both teams here.  Phoenix, who I was on, picked up a big win Friday night at home at the expense of first place Minnesota, 73-66 as a slight dog. Chicago, on the other hand, was blown out at home by New York, losing 77-63.  As discussed in my previous analysis, the Mercury have really started to heat up (as one would have expected) since the return of Brittney Griner. Since losing her first game back (to the Lynx), they've rattled off an impressive 11-2 run that includes an OT victory over the Sky back on July 28th. But because the Mercury are only 2-7 ATS their last nine at the betting window, we're still able to get a nice value here for the rematch. Take the points.

Phoenix's winning ways have not been w/o some good fortune as they are a perfect 3-0 SU in overtime games since Griner's return. Against the Sky, they needed to rally back from a double-digit deficit at halftime to pull out the victory, which was the first time the two teams had met since last year's WNBA Finals. Obviously, revenge is something on Chicago's mind, but the Mercury appear to finally be "putting it all together." Look no further than Friday when, despite another sluggish second quarter (just 7 pts), they won pretty comfortably against the league's best team. Save for a visit to Minnesota, I don't think that the Mercury should be a dog in any other setting.  They have beaten Chicago six straight times.

The Sky, who lead the league in scoring, are coming off their worst offensive effort of the season as they finished w/ just 63 points on 29.9 percent shooting against the Liberty Friday night.  While they should shoot the ball better here, they will be facing the league's top defensive team, which thanks solely to Griner leads the league in blocked shots. Opponents are shooting below 40% for the year against the Mercury.  Chicago has issues on the defensive end; they allow over 80 PPG for starters.  Since the All-Star Break, they are just 2-3 straight up and going back further, they've allowed at least 80 pts in all but two of their last eight games. One that they didn't, ironically, was Friday's loss. Wrong team favored here. 8* Phoenix

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET):  The Indians have the worst home record in all of baseball (20-33), so perhaps it shouldn't have been a huge surprise to see them drop the opener of a three-game set w/ division rival Minnesota last night.  It was a wild affair; one that saw the Twins jump out to an early 6-0 lead, only to have to rally for a 10-9 victory. Despite the win, Minny isn't exactly playing well right now; they were just swept by Toronto earlier in the week. A negative run differential for the year tells me they are not long for the playoff race and a 21-32 road record is hardly inspiring either. Meanwhile, the law of averages says Cleveland has to improve upon its home mark and I think that starts tonight behind Trevor Bauer.

The Indians have a fine starting rotation.  Well, outside of that the fifth spot, which came up last night w/ Chase Anderson.  But Bauer is part of the team's "big four" (along w/ Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar), all of whom have posted excellent strikeout numbers, yet sadly those haven't really translated into victories. Bauer himself has an 0-4 TSR his last four outings, two of them admittedly below par, but the problem is clearly an offense that scored just one run in each of those four games. Last time out, he looked a lot better (save for four walks) as he allowed just one run on four hits in 6 2/3 IP. Somehow, Cleveland is just 2-5 its last seven games overall desite their opponents batting just .207.

Bauer should have an easy time here though vs. a Twins lineup that's batting a collective .192 its last seven games.  Not having to face Sonny Gray again is also a positive.  Minnesota goes w/ Ervin Santana, who has been surprisingly great on the road so far, but I don't see it lasting.  As I said earlier, the Twins aren't a great road team and in fact are being outscored, on average, by more than a full run per game away from Target Field.  I'm just not a believer in this team and when it comes to the AL Central, I see the Royals clearly running away from things while Minnesota and Cleveland get a little "closer together" in the standings.  The Tribe are a better team than their record shows.  8* Cleveland

10* Miami (7:10 ET):  The Marlins just can't seem to beat the division rival Braves, can they? This has obviously been quite problematic for me as I've been on Miami each of the last two days. However, I'm staying the course. The 2-9 record the Marlins have head-to-head w/ Atlanta is THE primary culprit why they find themselves below the Braves in the NL East standings despite having the better YTD run differential. In fact, things have grown so dire in Miami (lost 12 of 14) that they have now fallen into a last place tie w/ Philadelphia, who has a run differential twice as bad as their own. It's troubling that the Fish couldn't win even w/ Jose Fernandez on the mound last night, but I remain steadfast that they will bounce back.

For some ungodly reason, Fernandez was taken out after just five innings and 76 pitches last night.  Miami did trail 2-0 at that point, but a three-run seventh gave them the lead, albeit temporarily. Atlanta answered with four runs of their own in the bottom half of the frame and that was it for the scoring.  In both games of this series so far, Miami has rallied back to tie or take the lead, only to lose late. They have actually outhit Atlanta for the series and the problem for the club is no longer a lack of hitting, but rather a pitching staff which has allowed opponents to score an average of 6.7 runs the last seven games w/ a batting average of over .300. Fortunately, Atlanta's staff has been just as bad during the same timeframe.

Tonight, Miami goes w/ Tom Koehler, who is their most profitable starter and leads the rotation w/ eight wins.  He is off B2B shaky outings.  However, he's pitched well in three starts against Atlanta this year, posting a 2.51 ERA. Koehler is actually the only Marlins' starter to hold a win over the Braves in 2015.  Meanwhile, Atlanta was fortunate to win Mike Foltynewicz's last start as he gave up six runs in six innings.  It was the fourth time in his last five starts he's allowed at least five runs and somehow he's been able to post a 5-1 TSR here at Turner Field despite a 5.97 ERA/1.586 WHIP. That good fortune ends here. 10* Miami

10* Saskatchewan (7:05 ET): After six weeks, Saskatchewan is the league's lone winless team; in fact every other team has at least two victories to its credit.  But it's not as if the Rough Riders have played all that poorly.  In the face of some major adversity (injuries at the pivot), four of their six losses have been by four points or less, one of those to the team they'll hook up w/ here, Toronto.  They are off, by far, their worst effort of the season, that being a 30-5 loss at Edmonton last week. But they have an edge in that the Argos are working on a short week. They too are off a poor performance, a 34-18 loss at Hamilton Monday. Though this is the Argos' first true home game, I can't see them covering the large spot. Take the points.

The first meeting of the season between these two teams went to double OT and saw the Argonauts come from behind to pull out a 42-40 victory as 3.5-pt dogs. It was a brutal loss in a series of them for the Riders, who outgained the Argos 579-349 in that one.  Now, we all know Saskatchewan is now down to its third string QB, that being Brett Smith, who had a shaky debut last week.  But that was also against an excellent defense.  Toronto has given up at least 25 pts in four straight games since its lone win of the season by more than a field goal, that being the season opener against Edmonton.  The revenge angle and sense of desperation surrounding the contingent from Regina should be enough to enable them to stay "within the money" here.  It's interesting to note that the Rough Riders have been favored in four of their six games so far while this will be the first time the Argos have been listed as the chalk.  10* Saskatchewan

6* Washington (7:05 ET):  Considering the position they currently find themselves in (2.5 games behind the Mets), the Nationals can't afford any more losses to the last place Rockies here at home this weekend. Friday's opener went to Colorado, 5-4, after a shocking grand slam off reliever Drew Storen, who previously had not allowed a single run in over a month. Losers of six of their last eight, the Nats now turn to Stephen Strasburg, who makes his return from the DL.  Normally, I'd be a bit leery of a pitcher in this spot, but Strasburg had been pitching well previously (1.15 ERA/0.830 WHIP L3 starts) and the Rockies are not a good team at all. It's tough to call a game a "must win" in early August, but that's what this is for the Nats.

After a five-week stint on the disabled list earlier in the year, Strasburg came out and immediately pitched well, allowing just 2 ER in 15+ innings w/ an 18-4 KW ratio.  Opponents' slugging percentage was just .232 against him during that time and he struck out 30 percent of all batters he faced. While Colorado's overall offensive numbers look formidable, remember they are inflated because of their home park.  On the road, they average just 3.6 runs per game, which is basically two fewer per game than they average at Coors Field.  They are 21-32 on the road this season, including 3-12 as a ML dog of +150 to +175.  Over the last three years, their record in that range is a woeful 8-38.  In the -175 to -200 range, Washington is 4-1 as a home favorite this year and 25-9 the last three.

It's tough to like Rockies' starter Eddie Butler considering his 7.80 ERA and 1.667 WHIP his last three turns.  Last time out, at home, he allowed seven runs in just four innings of work and three home runs.  He has yet to pitch past the sixth inning all season!  He was originally set to pitch Sunday and I really don't think getting bumped up a day is going to help him in any way.  He's allowed 12 HR's in 14 starts and 87 hits over the course of 69 1/3 innings. Even worse is the fact that only four of his 67 pitches last time out were strikes that batters missed. Even after yday's win, Colorado is just .333 when facing teams w/ a winning record this season. 6* Washington

9* Texas (4:10 ET):  In yday's analysis, I stated that the Rangers probably ought to feel pretty good about being over .500 considering their YTD run differential remains squarely "in the black" (now -38). But they were a hot team nonetheless and I was willing to look past that distinction as they came into Safeco Field w/ revenge for a prior sweep at the hands of the Mariners, back in April in Arlington. Unfortunately though, an early 3-1 lead was not enough as Cole Hamels gave up B2B home runs in the bottom of the sixth, which was the difference in the game. Also discussed in yday's analysis is how these two AL West clubs both are better on the road than at home. Therefore, still playing w/ revenge, I'm sticking w/ Texas here.

Interestingly, the Rangers' only two losses in the L9 games have both come w/ Hamels on the hill. Clearly, that's not what they expected him when acquiring him from Philadelphia at the deadline. This afternoon, it's a much less heralded starter on the hill, that being Martin Perez.  In four starts so far, Perez's numbers are far from great. But w/ such a small sample size, just one really bad outing can skew things and that's the case here as he was the one who started that dismal 21-5 loss to the Yankees on July 28th. However, Perez then bounced back in a major way by nearly going the distance his last time out (8 1/3 IP) while allowing just one run and two hits. Most impressive of all is that he needed only 80 pitches to record 25 outs, something no other pitcher has done in six seasons!

The Mariners have not been a good bet when off a win this year, going 17-33 in that role.  Their offense ranks near the bottom of the league in most key statistical categories and their numbers at the plate actually get WORSE at home where they still are only 23-31 (-17.0 units) for the year. As a home favorite in the -125 to -150 range (which they are in here), they're just 5-11.  As I said yday, Texas is tied for the most road wins in all of MLB.  Seattle starter Mike Montgomery has an 0-5 TSR his last five starts and may have to deal w/ a stronger Rangers lineup, one that should have Mike Napoli in its lineup (acquired yday from Boston).  Seattle's six-game win streak over the Rangers is its longest since '01 and I just think it's too difficult to keep beating the same opponent, time after time. 9* Texas

10* Texas (10:10 ET):  The Rangers have revenge here, albeit from a series played long ago, back at the end of April in fact when Seattle came into Arlington and took all three games.  Here, it's a positive that Texas is actually the road team as they have the unique distinction of being one of the select number of teams to have a better record on the road than at home. Ironically, Seattle is also in that group. In fact, the Rangers are tied for the MLB lead (Cubs) w/ 31 road wins and they're definitely the hotter team here as they come off a three-game sweep (at home) of first place Houston, giving them four straight wins as well as seven in their last eight games overall.  Against a weak-hitting Mariners lineup, the recently acquired Cole Hamels should be able to earn his first American League victory.

Having a run differential of -37 indicates that the Rangers should probably feel 'lucky' to currently be one game above .500, but right now they are playing well.  It was somewhat of an "ugly" win over the Astros Wednesday (scored three unearned runs), but the bottom line is that the offense is now averaging 6.0 rpg its last seven while batting a collective .309.  Seattle, meanwhile, is off somewhat of a crushing loss to Colorado, costing them a chance for a sweep. They're just 22-31 for the season at Safeco Field.  Only Cleveland can claim fewer home victories this season.  A big reason for that is the M's offense is scoring just 3.5 rpg at home this season and they figure to struggle tonight vs. Hamels. 

Though the Rangers lost the game, it's not as if Hamels pitched poorly in his American League debut last Saturday.  He went 7 2/3 innings and left the team w/ a three-run lead despite giving up five runs.  But as mentioned a couple times previously, this Seattle offense is not very good as it ranks 24th in runs scored, 27th in team batting average and 25th in OBP.  Plus, they're just 12-17 vs. southpaw starters in 2015. While I look for a strong start tonight from Hamels, I'm sadly not expecting much from counterpart Hisashi Iwakuma, who in past seasons had actually been a favorite of mine. But this has just not been his year as he has a 5.70 ERA in five home starts. 10* Texas

8* San Diego (10:10 ET):  This is a pretty low price to go against the Phillies on the road. MLB's unquestioned worst team (-128 run differential) is a disastrous 15-38 away from home this season and keep in mind that's after a recent 4-1 trip through Toronto and Chicago.  Of course, the "value" we're getting in this spot has just as much to do w/ the fact the opponent is San Diego, who like Philadelphia, gave up 10 runs in a loss Thursday afternoon. But even despite three straight losses themselves, the Padres are likely to bounce back at Petco Park where they have not played since a 6-3 homestand to start the second half. Despite an 0-3 TSR his L3 starts, James Shields has actually pitched well of late. This is a rare time when the Padres should be a more prohibitive ML favorite.

It's been a "tale of two seasons" for Shields, who opened the year w/ a 9-3 TSR his first 12 starts (6-0 TSR in May), but has since seen the team go just 2-9 his last 11.   But despite that, there's been only one outing where he's allowed more than 3 ER.  None of those have come during the course of his last three where he's also had to go up against some top-flight pitchers, such as Jose Fernandez and Noah Syndergaard. Here at home, he's posted a 2.47 ERA in 10 starts and over the L7, he has 2.06 ERA w/ 47 K's in 43 2/3 IP.  His problem has been getting only 16 runs of support those L11 starts overall and his ERA is 2.57 his L7. 

The Phillies have gone a surprising 13-5 since the Break, but still have the worst record in all of baseball, which illustrates just how bad they were in the first half.  As mentioned at the top, they have been just awful away from home.  With both teams having allowed 10 runs in losses yday, it's key to note the Phils' 2-6 record coming off such a game while the Padres are 7-2 in that same scenario.  Adding to the Phillies' road woes is the fact the Padres are a strong 13-3 this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -150 range.  Starting tonight for Philly will be Aaron Nola, who has looked pretty good in three starts, but this will be just his 2nd on the road and his 1st was definitely his worst so far.  Incredibly, the Phils have been outscored by an average of two full runs per game away from home this season. 8* San Diego

10* Phoenix (10:05 ET):  As you might expect, the Mercury have taken off since the return of Brittney Griner (suspended first seven games) as they have now won four straight and 10 of their last 12.  Unfortunately, however, that success has not translated to the betting window where they are a disappointing 1-7 ATS their last eight games overall. Clearly, they aren't close to last year's level of domination as three of their wins w/ Griner back, including the last, have come in overtime. But this is a tremendous value on them at home, for what shapes up as a critical contest against the only team ahead of them in the standings. I wouldn't be surprised to see a change of favorite by tip-off, so bet quickly!

The home team has enjoyed tremendous success in the Minnesota-Phoenix rivalry, winning each of the last eight matchups, including both this season.  The Lynx actually spoiled Griner's return to the lineup back on June 27th w/ an 81-66 win and cover in Minnesota.  But w/o her, the Mercury were able to down the Lynx a month earlier (as 7.5 pt dogs) by an identical final margin of 15 pts.  Thanks to Griner, defense has been a major key for Phoenix as they easily lead the league in blocked shots paced by their star's average of 4.46 per game.  The blocked shots have resulted in the Mercury allowing a field goal percentage of just 39.4, 2nd best in the league. 

While the Mercury are off a series of close victories, many of them of the come from behind variety, the Lynx were hammered their last time out, losing 83-61 to Los Angeles.  While only their second loss in nine games, it was the second straight where they allowed 80+ points.  They come in only outscoring teams by 1.7 PPG on the road and that's against a lot of inferior competition.  Phoenix is really their only true barometer and for the home team not even being asked to lay the requisite three points, I think we have a steal on our hands.  10* Phoenix

8* Miami (7:35 ET):  Unfortunately, the Marlins came up just short for me last night, falling 9-8 here to Atlanta, which dropped them to 2-8 head to head w/ the Braves this season. Fortunately, however, they have ace Jose Fernandez toeing the rubber for tonight's rematch.  Last night's starter, rookie Jose Urena, gave the club next to nothing as he allowed five runs in just 2 IP before exiting w/ a knee injury. Clearly, Fernandez should be better, much better in fact  Also, there were some positive takeaways from last night's game if you're a Miami fan (admittedly, a small group!) as the Fish did have the edge in hits (13-12) and were able to fight there way back into the game w/ a three-run eighth inning. They should finally break through tonight.

This will be Fernandez's seventh start after missing all of the first three months of the season due to injury.  He has yet to drop a decision (4-0) and the team has won all but one of his six starts overall. All six starts have been quality.  He carries a strong 2.13 ERA & 1.026 WHIP into tonight's contest and comes off perhaps his finest showing yet, Sunday vs. San Diego, when he delivered six shutout innings of four-hit ball while striking out 10 batters.  In particular, he's had the number of right-handed hitters, whom are batting just .187 against him so far.  More good news comes in the form of Fernandez's career record vs. Atlanta, which is 3-1 w/ a sparkling 0.93 ERA.  While yday may have been Miami's fourth straight defeat and eighth in the last nine games, the one win during that span came w/ Fernandez on the hill (also when they were on a 4-gm losing skid), so we're in good hands here.

The Miami offense has started to come around a bit w/ 14 runs scored in the L10 innings.  As I said in yday's analysis, that trend should continue here as Braves' pitching has allowed opposing hitters to bat a collective .327 while scoring an average of 7.6 rpg the last seven games. Julio Teheran has a 5.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP his L3 starts and had taken the loss in B2B outings before getting to face the last place Phillies his last time out.  Still playing w/ revenge from the last time they faced Atlanta (swept at home), the Marlins should break through here. 8* Miami

10* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET):  This shapes up as a very important series. These teams are battling for the second and final Wild Card spot in the National League, separated by just one-half game (Giants lead) after yday's results which saw the Cubs lose for the first time in August as their overall six-game win streak was snapped.  San Francisco has, by far, the better YTD run differential (+61 to +10), which normally would have me on them, but they're the road team here and it's hard to ignore Cubs' starter Jason Hammel's 0.987 WHIP at the Friendly Confines (nine starts) even though his team start record here is just 3-6.  These teams have yet to meet this year, so that adds even more importance.  Go w/ the home team. 

The Cubs next 17 games, three of them at the cross-town rival White Sox, will all be contested here in the Windy City.  Just 27-24 at Wrigley this season, the Cubbies will have to be better down the stretch in their home park.  Fortunately, they now have a perfect opportunity to do so.  Poor fielding did last night's starter Dan Haren no favors, but that should improve tonight.  Hammel allowed just one run on six hits his last time out, that run coming via a first inning home run.  From there, he allowed just four singles and one extra base hit.  As mentioned before, he's pitched very well here at home, even if the record doesn't show it.  Going back to early May, Hammel has allowed more than 2 ER just three times in 15 starts.

Giants' starter Chris Heston has a no-hitter under his belt this season, but did not last long the last time we saw him, which was last weekend in Texas where he exited after just 4 2/3 innings after giving up three runs and throwing 93 pitches.  San Francisco's offense has been remarkably good on the road this year and just hit Atlanta pitching hard, but the Cubs' pitching is much better, so I wouldn't at all be surprised to see them quiet down at the plate this weekend.  Also, it should be pointed out that the Cubs are 39-26 in night games this year, a much better record than their 19-22 mark in day games.  Look for them to take this all-important series opener.  10* Chi Cubs

10* Miami (7:05 ET):  The Marlins have revenge here from being swept at home by the Braves back in May. Head to head, they are just 2-7 vs. their division rivals and that's the primary reason why they enter play Thursday five games behind them in the standings. While neither of these teams are going anywhere, it bears mentioning that Miami does own the better YTD run differential (-52 vs. -75) and though they were just dominated by the Mets, they did finally show "signs of life" via a six-run 9th inning Wednesday night.  Atlanta, meanwhile, has dropped eight of 10 including a 6-1 loss yday at home to the Giants.  I believe by season's end we will see Miami pass Atlanta in the standings and as you know I think it's just too hard to sweep the same opponent twice in a row. Therefore, I'll back the road team (as a slight underdog) in tonight's series opener.

The Marlins' offense was almost non-existent for 26 innings against the Mets, but it should be pointed out that the Mets' starting rotation ranks among the best in baseball and yday it was Matt Harvey on the bump.  Miami should do better at the plate tonight against Braves' rookie Matt Wisler, who has slowed down dramatically after an impressive debut.  He now has a 6.62 ERA and 1.528 WHIP his L3 starts after being hit hard his last time out for seven runs in just 4 2/3 IP and that was against the woeful Phillies.  The Fish may only be one game ahead of Philadelphia in the standings, but I think they're a lot better than the league's worst team, not to mention better than the Braves.

Miami has its offensive issues, but fortunately for them Atlanta comes in averaging just 2.5 rpg its L14 games, including scoring just four total in B2B losses. Wednesday saw them put only two runners in scoring position.  Marlins' starter Jose Urena (a rookie himself) has posted a solid 3.40 ERA his L7 starts while being victimized by poor run support.  He has faced the Braves once before, albeit for just one inning, but it was a scoreless one in his MLB debut back in April.  Opponents are averaging 7.0 rpg vs. Atlanta the L7 games while collectively batting better than .300.  Look for the Marlins to surprise here. 10* Miami

10* Kansas City (1:05 ET):  This series was SUPPOSED to have more meaning attached to it, but last night's result aside, only one of these two AL Central rivals remains a true contender. The respective actions of the Royals and Tigers at the trade deadline spoke volumes as the division leaders went out and bolstered their roster (highlighted by the acquisition of Johnny Cueto) while Detroit essentially "punted" on its 2015 season, most notably dealing away David Price to Toronto.  While Detroit did manage to take yday's game, they were outhit and still remain 11.5 games back of KC, who happens to own the biggest lead in any division in the sport. I see the reigning AL Champs taking the series Thursday afternoon in this daytime affair.

Both teams here have fared quite well for themselves in day games this season, but looking at the pitching matchup, I give the edge to the Royals' Yordano Ventura. While overall, Ventura's numbers are remarkably similar to that of counterpart Anibal Sanchez, he has excelled in afternoon games this season, going 5-2 w/ a 3.97 ERA, which is much better than his poor marks of 1-5 and 6.11 ERA in night games.  While shaky his last time out (allowed 2 HR), he was able to escape w/ a win over Toronto. And the time before that, Ventura outdueled Houston's Dallas Keuchel (no small feat!) by allowing just one run over seven innings.  While they've lost five of seven overall, the Royals still remain 20 games above .500 and are the better team here. 

Like I said earlier, KC had the edge in hits (9-5) despite losing 2-1 last night. Unfortunately, they were also 0 for 6 w/ RISP.  I expect greater success at the plate this afternoon at the expense of Sanchez, who has allowed 24 home runs already this season, one of the highest totals in all of MLB.  Granted, the Royals' lineup does not hit for power (no pun intended), but that could change here.  Detroit still has a losing record at home this season, which is a surprise, and even despite yday's loss the Royals are 2nd in all of baseball in net units earned this season (+18.28).  They have a winning road record (including 3-2 here in the Motor City), plus have gone 27-17 vs. the rest of the division. 10* Kansas City

8* HOUSTON (8:05ET) The eyes of Texas are upon Houston who has lost two in a row to the Rangers to allow them back into the Western Division race.  Today, Houston sends the AL leading “ERAmaster” Scott Kazmir to the hill to restore order.

Scott Kasmir (6-5; 2.10 ERA) has delivered 14 2/3 scoreless innings since being dealt from Oakland.  Against Texas this year he is 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 22 strikeouts in only 21 innings. Houston has lost 10 of 11 road games and Texas’ Josh Hamilton is 7-19 with two homers against Kazmir.

Texas has won six of seven at home bringing them to within two games of a wildcard berth. They will send birthday boy Nick Martinez (6-6 4.01 ERA) to face Houston.  This year Martinez owns a (2-0; 1.59 ERA) against them in three starts.  However, in his previous six starts against other teams Martinez is a  woeful 0-4 with a 7.01 ERA.

 Houston is 27-19 against division rivals while Texas has struggled (16-26) in the division and is below .500 at home winning only one of their past 13 home games before their current winning streak.  *8* Houston

*8* St Louis (7:10 ET)   Does St Louis have a Cincinnati problem? Last week they lost two of three – last night they lost again - and today they face a lefthander – who as a group have given the Cards fits all year (14-14) overall.

St. Louis starter Carlos Martinez  (11-4; 2.61) may have the cure as he went 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA against the Reds in two April starts.  Long-term, Martinez had a 1.08 ERA in his 11 starts before last week’s 9-8 no decision.  On the road he is 6-2 with a 2.44 ERA.  Collectively, Reds batsmen: Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Todd Frazier are four of 18 combining for 10 strikeouts.

Lefty Dave Holmberg (1-0; 3.00) began his quest as Johnny Cueto’s replacement with a season debut 15-5 victory against Pittsburgh last week in AJ Burnett’s “swan song” before the DL.  The “LeftyPhobic” Cards collectively are batting .238 against southpaws which has afflicted stalwarts Matt Carpenter, Jhonny Peralta and Kolten Wong the worst.  The Reds have won five of eight and with a win today could take the series against the Cards for only the fourth time in 18 series.  Overall, St Louis' Martinez is what the doctor ordered.  *8* St Louis

*10* UNDER Pittsburgh vs Chicago Cubs. (7:05ET) Chicago has won six in a row being “under” in five of them while Pittsburgh is .500 over their last six - not even scoring last night.  

Chicago will send journeyman Dan Heran (7-7; 3.42 ERA) against the Pirates.  In Miami he gave up only one run in three of his last five starts before the trade.  His National League 10th best WHIP (1.09) should bolster the back of the Cubs rotation.  He is prone to the homer giving up 1.47 per nine innings - among the league’s worst.  

Pittsburgh starter Jeff Locke (6-6; 4.21 ERA) is having the post All-Star blues going 1-1 with a 5.19 ERA in three starts.  The Cubs have had his number this year – he has a 10.22 ERA against them in three starts giving up 21 hits in 12 1/3 innings. He hopes to recapture his earlier prowess when he went 2-2 with a 1.59 ERA in six starts before the All-Star break.  He has an overall 2.90 home ERA and has been “under” in four of his past six starts. *10* UNDER Pittsburgh vs Chicago Cubs.