10* Air Force (3:30 ET): The Flyboys fell victim to one of the worst beats of the year Saturday in Laramie. Since I was on them, allow me to recount the tale of woe. Up 27-14 on Wyoming (w/ just under five minutes remaining), the Falcons were getting 2.5 and managed to blow the cover. They allowed three touchdowns to a Wyoming offense that had lost BOTH its starting QB and RB early in the game. The final score (27 yard run) came with less than a minute to go in a situation where a simple tackle would have ended the game (and there should have been holding called on Wyoming anyway). That loss cost the AFA any shot of being bowl eligible, putting them in a pretty tough spot Thanksgiving afternoon. But fortunately for them, the opponent is in just as bad a situation, if not worse.

Colorado State almost pulled off what would have been a shocking upset of #23 Utah State Saturday night. At home, they came from behind and scored what appeared to be the game-winning TD w/ no time left on a 34-yard throw from QB Collin Hill to WR Preston Williams. Unfortuantely, upon further review, the touchdown was negated when it was ruled Williams had stepped out of bounds before catching the ball. For the Rams, playing their final home game, a win would have been the highlight of a lost season. Instead, it just became their fourth straight loss and eighth defeat of this season. This was a team I played against multiple times early in the year as I felt this would be a down year in Ft. Collins. Now I'll look to conclude by fading them in the final regular season game. 

To me, this spread needs to be closer to three touchdowns rather than two. Air Force has won the L2 battles for the Ram-Falcon Trophy, including a 45-28 upset (as 10-pt dogs) in Ft. Collins LY. As you can tell from the spread, Colo State is a significantly weaker team in 2018. While the Rams did outgain Utah State LW, 506-310, that was at home. On the road, CSU has been a disaster, giving up 45.6 PPG and I'm just going to assume their defense will want no part of the AFA rushing attack in a meaningless game. Air Force has run for over 800 yds in the L2 games and is +14.2 PPG in Colorado Springs this year. While bowl eligibility is off the table, at least they can send the Seniors out w/ a win in the final home game. 10* Air Force

8* Colorado (10:35 ET): I'm coming back with the Avalanche here as they remain one of the more underrated teams in the league. Tonight, they face a Kings club that is quite possibly the worst team in the league. Oddsmakers haven't quite caught up to how bad the Kings are yet as is evident by the money line here, which is essentially even. The Kings' 15 points are currently the fewest in the league and their -20 goal differential is the worst. They are off a win, 2-0 over St. Louis on Monday, so maybe that's where the value (on the opposite side) is coming from. Even though they are off that shutout win, it is worth noting the Kings are still operating w/ a third-string goaltender.

There are only five teams in the league who currently have goal differentials of +10 or better. Four of them should not be a surprise, those being: Toronto (+21), Tampa Bay (+15), Nashville (+21) and Winnipeg (+13). I think that most consider those teams to be among the very best in the league. But the fifth best goal differential in league belongs to Colorado at +12. After a rough stretch to open November, the Avs have won three of their last four games, including the strong come from behind effort in Anaheim Monday. They were down 3-1 at one point, but won w/ just 1.3 seconds left in OT. While the game was close, they outshot the Ducks 42-33. This is the 3rd highest scoring team in the league w/ the two top point scorers in the league, Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon. Goaltender Semyon Varlamov has a solid .926 save percentage.

The Kings have lost their two top goalies for the foreseeable future w/ both Jonathan Quick and Jack Campbell not expected back anytime soon. So they've had to lean on Cal Peterson. He's made three starts and has a shockingly good .951 save percentage. But I wouldn't expect that to last. The two games LA has won w/ Peterson between the pipes were against Chicago and St. Louis, two not very good clubs. The game they lost was to Nashville, who scored five times. Peterson figures to be under fire again tonight and it doesn't help that the Kings are the worst offensive team in the league, both in terms of goals scored and power play percentage. 8* Colorado 

8* Cleveland (8:05 ET): For the second time in less than a decade, LeBron James has left Cleveland's hoops scene a barren wasteland as the Cavaliers come into this much-hyped showdown w/ the worst record in the league at 2-13 straight up. However, unlike when he bolted for Miami in 2010, don't expect James to be winning NBA titles anytime soon w/ this current Lakers squad. While there are certainly signs of progress in LA (they've won 5 of their last 6 games), they remain a money-draining 6-10 ATS on the year and this is a big number that they're laying out on the road. Right now, I do NOT project the Lakers to be a playoff team in the Western Conference. 

The Cavs should definitely be ready for this game. Not only is it a much-hyped game with the franchise's best ever player returning, but they haven't really played much over the last week. In the last six days, Cleveland has had to play only once. That was Monday and while they lost to Detroit, 113-102, they very nearly rallied to "steal" the cover (were +9.5) in the end. One can only assume that the team's full focus has been on this game for awhile now. They've been playing short-handed, but I also expect LeBron to "take it easy" on his former mates. 

For the 13th time in his career, James scored 50+ points on Sunday, finishing w/ 51 in a 113-97 rout of his "other" former team, Miami. While Cleveland hasn't played much recently, the Lakers have. This will be LA's third road game in five nights, all out East. They were upset in Orlando over the weekend, giving up 130 points. Sunday's win over Miami aside, the Lakers are generally not blowing teams out this season as they have four wins by four points or less and just three by double digits. This number is inflated because of the hype surrounding James and the perception of Cleveland. The Lakers will most likely win here, but not by as much as the oddsmakers are expecting. 8* Cleveland

10* Over Suns/Bulls (8:05 ET): We have two very bad teams playing here, the night before Thanksgiving, so I look for defense to be optional in this one. Offensively, the Bulls (30th) and Suns (28th) might both rank in the bottom three in the league in efficiency. But they also both rank near the bottom in defensive efficiency w/ the Suns coming in dead last in that department. Certainly, Chicago is going to do better offensively in this game than they did Saturday vs. Toronto when they scored only 83 points on 34.9% shooting. Both numbers were season-lows. If you recall, my last NBA O/U play was an Over on Phoenix (at Philadelphia) and that game saw 233 total pts scored. More of the same tonight. Play on the Over. 

That Over play w/ Phoenix was their last game. It was also the fifth time in the last six games they allowed 110 or more points. Philly had 62 pts after halftime. The Suns are one of three teams in the league yet to win a road game (Cleveland and Minnesota are the others) and I don't think that there's any denying that this is the worst team in the entire Western Conference. Their record is just 3-13 overall and in their seven road losses they've given up an average of 118.9 points per game. Chicago might be coming off its worst offensive game of the season, but this could end up being one of the best. 

The Bulls have not shot the ball well of late. Their field goal percentages in the last four games are: 39.3%, 39.3%, 43.6% and 34.9%. Incredibly, they've scored more than 100 points only once in the last six games. But tonight could be a breakout performance of sorts. They just got done with a stretch of facing the three top teams in East - Milwaukee, Boston and Toronto - all in a row. Those three are all top five in the league in defensive efficiency. They go from that to facing the league's worst defensive team. Key here is that leading scorer Zach LaVine (25.3 PPG) is set to return to the lineup after missing the Toronto game w/ an illness. LaVine's absence at least partially explains the offensive ineptitude in that game. The Bulls are 7-3 Over the L3 seasons after scoring 85 pts or less the previous game. 10* Over Suns/Bulls

10* Richmond (5:00 ET): Wyoming is a team that I've already targeted multiple times this season and I've been successful on every occasion. The first was the season opener vs. UC-Santa Barbara when they lost by 10 as six-point favorites. That may end up as one of the worst lines set by the oddsmakers all year. The next time I faded the Cowboys was last Friday, again at home, facing Niagara. The Pokes lost outright yet again, this time falling 72-67 as 7.5-pt chalk. They're now 0-5 ATS on the season after losing 88-76 to Boston College on Monday, a game they were NOT "supposed" to win as they came in as eight-point underdogs. 

This game takes place in Ft. Myers, Florida and will be the second game for both Richmond and Wyoming here. I already mentioned that Wyoming lost to BC on Monday, well, that same night saw Richmond fall to Loyola-Chicago by 16 points. We all remember the Ramblers making it to the Final Four last Spring, but that was still a disappointing setback for Richmond as they were just seven-point underdogs in the contest. The Spiders come into today's game at 2-2 SU overall, having also lost to Longwood in the season opener. But they've shot well since that defeat, making almost 55% of their field goal attempts the L3 games! The problem against Loyola was the defense as they permitted the Ramblers to shoot a ridiculous 61% from the field. 

Wyoming won't be shooting that well Wednesday as their field goal percentage for the year is just 40.2. The Cowboys were picked to finish 7th in the 11-team Mt West before the season and look to be worse than projected as they are already short-handed (two players injured) in addition to losing four of the top five scorers from last year's team. The Pokes are also incredibly deficient on the defensive end, which is bad news against a Richmond squad that is shooting the ball very well right now. Look for the Spiders to run away with this one as Wyoming looks even worse on the defensive end than they were a season ago. 10* Richmond

8* WI-Green Bay (10:00 ET): It's been an impressive run so far out on the West Coast for Green Bay w/ them upsetting Eastern Washington and then taking care of Morehead State. Tonight, the task is far tougher as they head down to Oregon, but I think the Phoenix will be up for it. They're getting a lot of points here against a team in prime letdown mode following a big win. This is the end of the non-bracketed 2K Empire Classic, an event which has seen GB play two "true" road games already and go a perfect 2-0 ATS in them. The last game (vs. Morehead State) may have been the most impressive performance to date as the Phoenix led by double digits most of the second half in a game where they were a slight underdog. I'll take the points here.

Oregon is nationally ranked (#21) and I'm not going to disagree w/ the pollsters on that. But this 2K Empire Classic Event has not been all "wine and roses." They lost to Iowa in Madison Square Garden last week, 77-69, a game in which the Ducks shot just 37.1% from the floor. They never led and were down 11 at halftime. Now compare that to Green Bay's performance against the Hawkeyes, which came in Iowa City, where the Phoenix were down by only one point entering halftime. After losing to Iowa, Oregon has since rebounded w/ an 80-65 win over Syracuse, also in MSG. They were better in all facets in that game, namely holding the Orange to just 35.3% shooting. But don't think for a second that result didn't affect this line, which now looks to be inflated. 

Both of these teams have beaten Eastern Washington, Oregon doing so in much more lopsided fashion, but for them it was a home game while Green Bay had to go to Cheney to get the win. The Phoenix are 3-0 ATS their last three games and the two SU losses they have suffered so far have come by a total of 15 pts. The Ducks will be their toughest opponent to date and this is a third consecutive game out West in a five-day span. The win over Eastern Washington was an overtime game as well. But this is just too many points to lay if you're Oregon, which will have to deal w/ a full-court press that forced Iowa into 17 turnovers. Also, Green Bay has topped 80 points in three straight games, so it's going to be really tough to score enough to cover a big number like this against them. 8* WI-Green Bay

8* LA Clippers (7:05 ET): The Wizards are such a dumpster fire right now that I'm more than willing to look past the fact the Clippers are in the second night of a back to back here. Reports are coming in that everyone is on trade block in Washington and it's already been confirmed that John Wall and Bradley Beal have had to be reprimanded for verbally berating the team's coach and general manager in a public setting. Another report surfaced that the players on the team simply "don't like each other." So that's the backdrop for Tuesday night's game as the Wizards come in at a very disappointing 5-11 SU on the season while also owning the league's worst ATS record (4-11-1). 

While the Wizards have been a massive disappointment, the Clippers have been a pleasant surprise so far. Last night's come from behind effort in Atlanta was the Clips' fifth straight victory, giving them an 11-5 SU mark on the year. This current five-game run has seen them cover the spread every time while the Over is also a perfect 5-0. Last night, they did have to rally from a 15-point second half deficit to beat Atlanta 127-119. Obviously, that requires a lot of energy, but the key here is that this team is deep. Four reserves scored in double digits last night, led by Montrezl Harrell's 25 pts. The Clips are a top five team in offensive efficiency right now and should have no problems scoring on a Wizards team that is 27th in defensive efficiency and 29th in points allowed. 

While the Clippers have won five in a row as well as seven of its last eight, Washington has dropped B2B games, both here at home. The last one was even worse than it looked as they trailed Portland by 19 entering the 4th quarter, which is when beleaguered HC Scott Brooks benched his starters for the rest of the game. Not that it matters much, but Dwight Howard continues to be limited due to an ongoing glute injury. The Wizards are not shooting well from three-point range (32.7%), which is a problem in today's NBA. The only other time the Clippers have had to play a back to back this season, they won the second game, 116-110 in Miami. Even w/o second-leading scorer Gallinari and w/o rest, they deserve to be favored tonight. 8* LA Clippers

8* Ball State (7:00 ET): Miami, Ohio has done a nice job working its way not only to the cusp of bowl eligibility, but also into the race for the MAC East. When the RedHawks were 3-6 SU, their postseason hopes looked bleak. But a couple of upsets later, they're now in the discussion for the MAC Championship Game. Granted, it's unlikely they can get to Detroit (would require not only a win Tuesday, but a Buffalo loss to Bowling Green on Friday). But the RedHawks certainly have "everything to play for" this week, namely bowl eligibility. They're at home facing a bad Ball State team, but I think this number is inflated. Take the points. 

Ball State pulled an upset of its own last Wednesday, theirs coming over Western Michigan on Senior Night, an emotional game in Muncie that went to overtime. The final score was 42-41 and the Cardinals were a 9.5-point underdog. They won by stopping what would have been a game-winning 2-pt conversion. In addition to it being Senior Night, the Cardinals were also off a bye last week, so the situation was definitely favorable. It's obviously less so here, but I was very impressed w/ the job done by QB Drew Plitt against Western Michigan as he threw three touchdowns and only five incompletions in just his second career start (but sixth appearance this year).

Miami might have everything to play for here, but let's see how they perform as a favorite and a large one at that. The RedHawks are 7-1 ATS the L8 games, the lone non-cover coming by a single point against Buffalo. But they've been a favorite only twice during that stretch and never by anywhere close to this many points. Then you have the fact they were a bit of a lucky winner last week, pulling the 13-7 upset at Northern Illinois despite just 201 total yds of offense. The winning score was a pick-six. The RedHawks averaged just 2.3 yards per carry on offense while NIU averaged 5.7. It was a game Miami should feel lucky to have won. In yet another game where points should be at a premium, backing the big underdog seems logical. 8* Ball State 

10* LA Rams (8:20 ET): I have to say that I'm kind of shocked to see how "trendy" an underdog Kansas City is in this spot. I understand that the Chiefs are one of the league's top teams and they are a perfect 3-0 ATS as underdogs this year. Overall, they've covered 8 of 10 games this season, giving them the best ATS record in the league. But have we forgotten how good the Rams are? The Rams have been favored in every game this season and while they've shown some "cracks" defensively in recent weeks, that's nothing compared to the issues on that side of the ball for Kansas City. The Chiefs rank 30th in the league in yards per game and eventually that's going to catch up with them. Facing a top three scoring offense seems like a likely place. Lay the points. 

The Rams also get a break here in that this game was originally set to take place in Mexico City, but had to be moved to LA due to poor field conditions. So the Rams now get an added game at home where they are already 5-0 and outscoring opponents by 12 PPG. Unlike most Chiefs' opponents, the Rams have an offense that can trade points here. The respective scoring averages from the two offenses here are very similar. Remember that the only team to beat the Rams was insanely hot New Orleans and that was a 45-35 game in the Superdome. The Rams have played a much tougher slate of games than the Chiefs recently and the one loss, coupled with some close calls, have contributed to the public perception that they're not as "hot" right now. While they're 1-5 ATS the L6 games, I think that's nonsense. 

Since losing to the Patriots, Kansas City has played: Cincinnati, Denver, Cleveland and Arizona - all teams w/ losing records and only the Cleveland game was on the road. The Chiefs' offense was surprisingly held to a season-low 26 points last week, by the Cardinals of all teams. While Kansas City has been pretty lethal as an underdog (8-2 ATS w/ seven outright wins L10 times), this is their toughest game of the season. The Rams played theirs two weeks ago and while they came up short, I still have them rated as the better team here. Thus, now at home, I'll gladly lay a short number. Kansas City's defensive issues will catch up with them here. 10* LA Rams

10* Over Suns/76ers (7:05 ET): Jimmy Butler's first game in a Philadelphia uniform probably should have been a win, but the Sixers gave it away late to Orlando and lost 111-106. But they're 2-0 since including a 122-119 OT win over Charlotte on Saturday that saw Butler hit the game-winner (a 33 foot three-pointer). Despite scoring 122 points, the Sixers didn't shoot the ball all that well, making only 42% of their field goal attempts. But they should no problem scoring tonight against a Suns team that ranks dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. The potential for a blowout is definitely there tonight, but I think Over is the better call here as BOTH teams should score plenty.

Since winning their season opener by 21 points (over Dallas), Phoenix has lost 12 of 14 in what promises to be another long season for this troubled franchise. Last Wednesday, they did pull an upset over San Antonio, 116-96, but followed that up by losing by 10 to Oklahoma City two days later. Those last two games have seen the Suns give up fewer points than usual (96, 110), but both were also at home. On the road, they are giving up 118.8 PPG, a big reason why they've yet to win a game outside of Phoenix. Here, they're facing a team that's unbeaten at home (8-0) and averaging 117.2 PPG in this building. 

Butler obviously gives the 76ers the "go-to" scorer that they previous lacked. In the three games since coming over from Minnesota, he's averaged just 19.0 PPG, but I certainly expect that average to go up moving forward. He's shot 57.9% from the floor as a Sixer. As I've hit on multiple times already, the Sixers should have no problems scoring in this game. The Suns have allowed at least 117 points in every road game this season. The only issue here is whether or not Phoenix will be able to score enough to help this one get Over. The one time Philadelphia was a double digit home favorite this year, the game easily went Over. The Over is also 5-1 in the L6 meetings between these two and 5-1 in the Sixers' last six games overall. 10* Over Suns/76ers

10* Rutgers (7:00 ET): Playing at home, I think Rutgers deserves more than being just a "token favorite." Sure, Eastern Michigan will be a player in the MAC this season, but all the Eagles have done so far is roll up some wins against unimpressive teams and also get annihilated by Duke. Now that latter component won't exactly put them in exclusive company by season's end. But it's the wins that have been less impressive to me, particularly one that they share over a common opponent w/ Rutgers. That would be Drexel, who EMU beat by only four points up in Ypsilanti back on November 9th. Just two days later, the Scarlet Knights rolled the Dragons by 29 in this very building. Those two results against the same opponent tell me that the favorite is undervalued in this one. 

Eastern Michigan is 4-1 so far. But their first three wins weren't all that impressive as they had the close call w/ Drexel and then two others against non-DI teams. The Eagles knew they'd be up against it facing Duke, but things went even worse than expected as they trailed 48-13 at the half and would go on to lose 84-46. Saturday saw the Eagles turn in - easily - their best performance so far as they beat Boston U 80-62 as 7.5-pt chalk and shot 52.5% overall. Senior Eliajh Minnie led the way w/ 28 pts, including 5 of 9 from three-point land. But I question the Eagles' ability to sustain that kind of three-point shooting. They were just 31% as a team from behind the arc including Minnie's 1 of 13. On the road, I think their struggles from deep are likely to reappear. 

While Rutgers is hardly a "flagship" Big 10 program, they're still a Power 5 school and Eastern Michigan has not done well in such spots. Since beating Michigan 45-42 back in 2014, the Eagles have lost nine straight to Power 5 schools and are just 5-43 SU in such games the L20 years. This includes a 3-23 SU record vs. the Big 10. The Scarlet Knights are off their first loss of the season, which was a wake-up call, as they fell by 19 here at home to St. John's on Friday. After averaging 92.5 PPG on roughly 53% shooting in the first two games, Rutgers shot just 34.9% in the loss to St. John's while at the same time allowing the Johnnie's to shoot 16 of 32 from three-point range. I suspect tonight will be a big-time bounce back from that loss. 10* Rutgers

8* Chicago (8:20 ET): I think it would be fair to say that there's a sense a skepticism concerning the pro football team from the Windy City. The Bears are 6-3 SU and lead the NFC North, but they've gotten to three games above .500 by beating the Jets, Bills and Lions. Still, all three wins did come in pretty convincing fashion (all by 12 or more pts) and the Bears now own a point differential (+94) that's better than all but three other teams in the league (Chiefs, Rams and Saints). Sunday night will most certainly be labeled as a "prove it" game to the national audience and I think they pass the test at home. They've got revenge for a pair of losses to the Vikings last season and have generally been just the better team here in 2018. I'm going to lay the short number. 

Minnesota also has a top five defense and beat Detroit in their last game. Their win over the Lions, 24-9, came two weeks ago as they're coming off a bye here. So a lot of people are going to love the situation from their perspective. But under Mike Zimmer, the team is just 1-3 ATS off a bye, including playoffs. The Vikings would be ahead of the Bears in the division if not for that embarrassing loss to Buffalo (at home) back in Week 3. Their only other two defeats came against the Rams and Saints. The only reason that people might seem "down" on this team is because they went 13-3 SU a year ago and added Kirk Cousins. They're a good team, but when it comes to the division, I just think this is going to be the Bears' year.

Remember that early in the season, I called for Chicago to be a sleeper playoff team. The key was finally firing John Fox and replacing him w/ an offensive mind like Matt Nagy. A relatively soft schedule has helped. But since Week 4, this Bears offense has led the league in points per game at 34.3. QB Mitchell Trubisky has 19 TD passes during that time and is coming off a career-best performance LW vs. the Lions. While both defenses here are top five in yards allowed, the Bears are allowing fewer points per game and overall have been the better unit. This is the biggest game for the Bears in years and its at home on a Sunday night. Doubted on a national level, they'll show up and deliver. 8* Chicago 

8* Colorado (8:05 ET): The Avalanche were the biggest surprise in the entire league last year. After a historically inept 2016-17 campaign (only 48 points), they jumped all the way up to 95 points and a playoff berth. Such a one-year jump usually signals regression the following season, but the Avs started out 7-2-2. Since then, however, that inevitable regression seems to have taken hold. They are just 2-4-2 in their last eight games and coming off an overtime loss (at home) to Washington Friday. Four of their six losses have been by one goal however, so it's not like they haven't been competitive.

Anaheim's season has mirrored the trajectory of Colorado's. The Ducks started strong 5-1-1 their last 7 games. But since then they've dropped 11 of 14. Two of the three wins came beyond regulation. Offense has been an issue here w/ the team ranking 30th in goals per game and the league's 27th ranked power play isn't exactly helping. The Ducks have scored just three goals in the last four games, excluding the shootout vs. Nashville. Usually one of the top teams in the Pacific, the Ducks are not a team I'm particularly high on right now.

Phillip Grubauer will start in goal for Colorado tonight after stopping 26 of 29 shots against Washington Friday. His save percentage remains low and this will be justt the second time all year he's started two straight games. The other time resulted in a 3-1 win over Carolina. He shouldn't be tested much here from an Anaheim team averaging a league-low 26.3 shots per game. The Ducks also have issues at the other end of the ice right now with their top three defensemen all being rookies. They lost their top blue line player, Cam Fowler, to a facial fracture on Monday. 8* Colorado

10* Philadelphia (4:25 ET): Needless to say, less than one year removed from winning the Super Bowl, the Eagles did not bank on being in this position. That position being more than a touchdown underdog to an opponent. Now this is opponent is New Orleans, who is at home and historically lethal in the Mercedes Benz Superdome. The Saints also come into this one on an eight-game SU and ATS win streak. Since losing Week 1 (here at home) to Tampa Bay, they've outscored opponents by almost two touchdowns per game. Most, including myself, have them as the top team in the league right now. In their last home game, Drew Brees and company beat the Rams (pretty handily) to take over that honor. Last week, they obliterated Cincinnati on the road, 51-14. 

So the Eagles, only 4-5 SU and off a primetime loss to Dallas, definitely are "up against it" a bit here. Even though the NFC East is weak overall, with Washington currently 6-3, Philly's season is very much hanging in the balance here (although they still play the Redskins twice). I do have to say that this spread did require a bit of a double take. And in handicapping the matchup, I uncovered a key trend that only confirmed my belief that the road dog is the correct play here. The last five times the previous year's Super Bowl winner was a dog of seven or more in a game (and this is obviously a rare spot), that team has covered the spread four times. I think the Eagles are being undervalued here.

You have to remember that on their run to the SB last season, they were an underdog in every playoff game. Last week's outright loss to Dallas dropped the Eagles to 2-8 ATS the L10 times they have been favored (w/ 5 outright losses). But as an underdog, they have covered six straight times (this excludes Wk 17 LY when they rested starters). They've been favored in every game this year with one exception, Week 1 vs. Atlanta (a game they won 18-12). This team still has Carson Wentz at QB, a relatively strong defense (20.3 PPG allowed) and all five losses have been by seven points or less. Another good trend here is that teams off a SU loss by 14+ pts on Sunday or Monday Night Football this year have gone 8-2 ATS the following week. Yes, I'll jump in front of the New Orleans' train. Take the points. 10* Philadelphia 

10* Detroit (1:00 ET): Both of these teams would just as soon burn the Week 10 film as Carolina got hammered 52-21 in Pittsburgh Thursday night while the Lions lost in Chicago, 34-22. For the Lions that final score was actually a bit misleading considering they were down 26-0 midway through the second quarter. Either way, it was still a third straight double digit loss for Matt Patricia's team, whose season is basically on the brink this week as the team is 3-6 SU overall. Even after losing by 31, the Panthers are still in okay shape at 6-3 SU, but I've had my doubts about just how good this team is. On the road, they're now just 1-3 SU/ATS and averaging 20.7 PPG. That one win was a come from behind effort in Philadelphia, a game where they trailed 17-0 in the 4Q.

It wasn't the Carolina offense that had the problem in Pittsburgh, though their 21 pts scored were the lowest in a game since the last time they played on the road. In fact, they haven't scored more than 24 all season on the road. Rather, it was the defense getting torched for 52 points and 457 total yards. Excluding the Steelers running out the clock to end the 1st half, they scored on each of their first seven drives. Now, whether or not the Detroit offense can have a big day remains to be seen. But one thing that would certainly help the Lions here is protecting the football. Twice in the last three weeks, they've finished w/ a -3 TO ratio.

Keep in mind that the Lions have been a home dog to only one other team all season. That would be New England back in Week 3, a Sunday night game where they pulled a massive 26-10 upset as seven-point chalk. Few saw that one coming. The Lions' last two road games have been on the road. The last time they were at home, I actually played against them and they lost 28-14 to Seattle. But that game saw them turn the ball over TWICE in the end zone. Again, protecting the football is paramount here (as it is for any NFL game). Carolina has won a lot of close games the L2 seasons and has only outscored their opponents by seven points for the year. Take the points. 10* Detroit.

8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): What is heaven's name has gone wrong with the Jaguars? After Week 2, this team was perceived as a legit threat to win the AFC as they'd just avenged LY's Championship Game loss to New England, beating the Patriots pretty handily, 31-20. But as you know, Week 2 was a LONG time ago. Since then, the Jags have lost six of seven, including five straight. Their only win during that time was against the lowly Jets. Last week saw them get knocked off by the division rival Colts, 29-26, a game where the once-proud defense was torched for all 29 pts in the first half. The task gets no tougher this week as the Jags play Pittsburgh. But the game is at home and the number is inflated. I'm going to take a "flier" on the dog here as they look to salvage their season.

Salvaging the season is still a possibility for Jacksonville, mind you. Their next two games are: at Buffalo and a rematch w/ Indy at home. So if they were to win here, they could easily be back at .500 after 12 games. I have no idea what went wrong w/ the defense in the 1H last week, though it isn't exactly refreshing to hear the personnel refer to the mistakes as "brain farts". What I do know is they shut the Colts out in the 2H. Maybe this defense isn't what it was a year ago, but it's a prideful bunch and I think they'll bounce back. Of course, we also need the offense to get back on track as well with QB Blake Bortles being the biggest offender. The good news is RB Leonard Fournette is back in the lineup and prior to last week's loss, the team was 2-0 SU w/ him on the field and 1-5 SU without.

For Pittsburgh, this is obviously a double revenge game. They lost twice to the Jaguars last year, including at home in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. If you recall, I had a sizable play on Jacksonville in that playoff meeting. Pittsburgh is definitely hot right now and with the double revenge angle, figures to be a popular side this week. They've won and covered five straight games following a 1-2-1 SU start. But, as noted earlier, this line is inflated. The Steelers have not won a road game this year by more than seven points and under HC Tomlin they are just 7-18 ATS all-time as a road favorite of six or more points. Take the points here with a desperate dog. 8* Jacksonville

8* Valparaiso (10:30 AM ET): The Myrtle Beach Invitational wraps up Sunday. This is a consolation game as both Wake and Valpo lost their first game. The team that Valpo lost to - Western Kentucky - will be playing in the Championship Game later tonight. There was not shame in losing to the Hilltoppers considering Valpo was a seven-point dog. WKU would also go on to upset West Virginia on Friday. Wake Forest lost its first game to a St. Joe's team that would go on to get blown out by UCF. The Demon Deacons did gain a measure of redemption Friday by beating CS-Fullerton in spite of shooting 33.9% for the game. Valpo beat Monmouth 64-53 as a six-point favorite. 

Wake lost 20 games last season, the fourth under HC Danny Manning. The season started well enough w/ a 90-pt effort over North Carolina A&T, but even then they only won by 12 as 21.5-pt favorites. Then came the St. Joe's loss where they fell victim to 16 three-pointers. Given that kind of shooting, the Demon Deacons had little chance and lost by 20. They did bounce back w/ a 66-59 win over CS-Fullerton. But even then, they needed to score the game's final seven points. To win here, they'll either need to shoot better than they did vs. CS-Fullerton or defend better than they did vs. St. Joes. Maybe both. Regardless, my numbers indicate the wrong team is favored this morning. 

Valpo was outshot badly by Western Kentucky in the first game here, but as I said earlier, that's no longer looking like a bad loss. They bounced back w/ a nice shooting night against Monmouth, also holding the Hawks to just 53 points. Over three games, the Crusaders are shooting 53%. At the same time, they're allowing just 39.7% shooting. Again, in my opinion, they're the better team here and I'll take the points. 8* Valparaiso 

8* Oregon (10:30 ET): The Ducks are off a bad loss last week as they lost to Utah. It's not like a seven-point loss in Salt Lake City is bad on face value. But when you consider the Utes were w/o their starting QB AND RB, then it's pretty shocking Oregon came up short. It was the third loss in four games for UO, although all three losses took place away from Eugene. This is the final game of the year at Autzen and the home team should be highly motivated. Last year, their 10-game win streak over Arizona State got snapped when the Sun Devils kicked a last second field goal. So that's even more motivation. The Ducks are 11-2 SU at home the L2 years, have a NFL QB and this is a really good price on them. Lay the short number. 

No one is laughing at the Herm Edwards hire anymore. He has Arizona State in position to win the Pac 12 South! If the Sun Devils win out, which would require victories here and in the Territorial Cup (at Arizona), they are going to Los Angeles. All four losses this year have come by exactly a touchdown. But three of six wins have also come by a field goal. So that's a lot of close games. Last week, they outlasted UCLA 31-28 as 12.5-pt chalk. It was only the second Pac 12 game where ASU was favored, so clearly they've beaten expectations. But the road has been a bit of a challenge for them. They're 1-3 SU away from Tempe w/ the only win coming by a field goal over USC. They've lost at San Diego State, Washington and Colorado. This may be the toughest trip of the season.

Making this game even more difficult than it needed to be for Arizona State is the fact that Merlin Robertson will miss the 1st half due to an ejection for targeting last week. That makes stopping Justin Herbert and the rest of the Oregon offense even more daunting. I'd also worry about this Sun Devils offense being able to keep pace. Sure, they average 29.9 PPG for the year. But that number comes slightly down on the road and Oregon also averages 43.0 PPG at home. The ASU defense has allowed a 70% completion percentage to four of their last five opponents. Herbert has thrown only one interception his L6 games. One final key trend worth mentioning is that Arizona State is 1-6 ATS when off B2B wins the L3 seasons. They've overachieved already this season, but won't here. 8* Oregon 

8* Puck Line St. Louis (10:35 ET): Please note that this is a Puck Line play only where I am backing St. Louis at +1.5. The Blues played last night and they're certainly hoping that what happens in Vegas does NOT have to stay in Vegas as they beat the Golden Knights 4-1. It was a dominant performance w/ a three-goal second period. It was their third time scoring 4 goals in the last five games and their only losses during that stretch both came by one goal each. Speaking of dominant performances, the Blues shutout the Sharks 4-0 back on November 9th. 

The Sharks are looking to rebound from a 5-3 loss to Toronto that occurred here at home Thursday. There's no shame in losing to a team as good as the Maple Leafs, but San Jose has to feel like they let one slip away given they scored three times in the 1st period and had 45 shots on goal for the game. One positive sign for the Sharks tonight is that they're 4-0 SU this season when off a loss by two or more goals. But I don't see them winning by multiple goals tonight. In fact, five of San Jose's last six wins have been by exactly one goal. Three of their last five losses have also been by one goal. I'll take either result here (or another Blues' blowout, obviously!). 

It would be easy to look at this matchup simply through the prism of the division standings. San Jose is in first place in the Pacific while St. Louis resides in the basement of the Central. However, the six point difference between the teams is a result of the Sharks having played three more games and they have three more wins. Also, I should point out that despite where they are in the standings, the Blues actually have the better season goal differential as they've outscored opponents while the Sharks have allowed the same exact number of goals (64) that they have scored. Since Jake Allen was in goal last night, that probably means Chad Johnson will start tonight and he was the one who authored the 4-0 shutout in the last meeting. Take the +1.5. 8* Puck Line St. Louis (+1.5) 

10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): These teams squared off last Friday in Philly. Despite falling behind by as many as 21 pts in the 1st half, the Hornets covered easily - and probably should have won the game outright. They led by five w/ just over a minute to go in regulation, but let the Sixers force OT. The final score was 133-132, but at least Charlotte was +6.5. The Hornets have had terrible luck in close games the L3 seasons and five of their seven losses this season have come by four points or fewer. But tonight, they'll be looking to rebound from a truly embarrassing defeat, one that saw them go down by 24 to an undermanned Cleveland team that they had just blown out the previous week. It was just Cleveland's second win of the season.

Charlotte is favored for this rematch and for good reason. They've had three days off to sit and stew about what happened in Cleveland. They should be highly motivated. Meanwhile, the Sixers will have had very little time to recoup from last night's hard fought 113-107 win over the Jazz. That was the home debut for the newly acquired Jimmy Butler, so there was a lot of emotion going into that game. Butler scored 28 pts to lead the team, but the real key was Utah shooting only 18.2% from behind the three-point arc (4 of 22). The Jazz also missed 16 of 37 free throw attempts in a six-point game. So the Sixers were both somewhat lucky to cover and win. This is a tough back to back as it's also Philly's third game in four nights and sixth in nine nights.

It'll also be the fourth road game in the last week for a Sixers team that is just 2-7 SU away from home (8-0 SU at home). The last time they took their act on the road, they lost SU as a favorite to Orlando. They're giving up nearly 116 PPG on the road this season. Charlotte is playing at home for the 1st time in 11 days and should be very motivated off a bad loss and playing w/ revenge. Note Charlotte has lost twice to Philly this season w/ the two losses coming by a total of three points. They've lost to them eight times in a row. If they can't break through tonight, then I don't know when they will as the spot is more than ideal. The Sixers are 0-4 SU/ATS in the second game of a back to back this year, all those games taking place on the road, and the four losses have come by an average of nearly 16 PPG. 10* Charlotte

10* Cal Santa Barbara (5:00 ET): The Gauchos have already treated me well this season. I took them in the season opener when they went to Wyoming and came away w/ an outright 76-66 victory as 6.5-pt dogs. Now, we know Wyoming isn't very good as we faded them again last night and came away w/ another outright winner, this time on Niagara getting 6.5 points. UCSB losing its second game, 82-63 at North Dakota State, has created a ton of value on this pick. Note the Gauchos were w/o Max Heidegger in that game as he was out w/ a concussion. He is expected back today as the team plays its second home game. They successfully rebounded from that loss to North Dakota State by thrashing D-III Cal Lutheran 88-32 on Tuesday. Lay the points here.

Montana State is a team we tried fading Wednesday, but they surprised me w/ a strong effort in covering at Colorado State. They still lost, mind you, 81-77 as 12.5-pt chalk. The Bobcats had not fared well at all in their first two games (more on that in a second), but were able to keep pace in Ft. Collins due to outshooting CSU from behind the three-point arc. Montana State made a season-best 14 three-pointers in that game while CSU went just 6 of 30 from behin the arc. I think I should reiterate the fact that the Bobcats first two games of the season saw them lose by 30 to Utah State (at home) and then by 45 at Indiana. This isn't a good team. Their one win came against non-board team Presentation College. 

These teams played last year w/ UCSB winning in a rout, 91-69. That game was Bozeman (on the road) and the Gauchos were actually slight dogs going in. I expect a somewhat similar result here today. The likely return of Heidegger, an All-Big West selection last year, will have the Gauchos going 12 deep for this game. This is an underrated team by the oddsmakers right now, so keep an eye on them moving forward. Montana State is playing its second road game in four days and I don't believe they're capable of playing as well as they did Wednesday at Colorado State (who was a little short-handed). Lay the points. 10* Cal Santa Barbara

10* Air Force (4:00 ET): I think there are a lot of people (myself included) that think proud Wyoming alum Josh Allen is going to be a bust in the NFL (he was a 1st rd draft choice of the Bills). But don't tell that to the alma mater, who misses its old QB dearly. Coming into the season, I thought Wyoming was as likely to regress (in terms of record) as any team in the entire country. They only went 8-5 SU w/ Allen at the helm last year and that came w/ a +24 turnover margin (easily tops in the country). Points off turnovers accounted for roughly 40% of all Cowboys' scoring last year. The team was actually outgained by 52 YPG in MWC play. So what I'm saying is that it was a minor miracle that team won eight games even w/ Allen. Without him, they have indeed nosedived down to 4-6 SU. I don't think they should be favored here and will fade them instead. 

When Wyoming's schedule came out, it was known that five opponents would be looking for revenge against them. They've played three of the five so far and only Colorado State (who has fallen even harder that the Cowboys have) failed to exact that revenge. Both Hawaii and Utah State did and now it's Air Force's turn. The Flyboys lost to the Pokes last year in Colorado Springs, 28-14. despite being three-point home favorites and having a +149 edge in total yards. Now its time for payback. Both of these teams need to win out in order to become bowl eligible, but obviously only one can. I'll side w/ the 4-6 SU team that has both outscored and outgained opponents this season as opposed to the one that's done neither. 

Wyoming has won B2B weeks, but those wins were against two of the MWC's weaker teams: Colorado State and San Jose State. The offense in Laramie is downright putrid as it averages only 18.2 PPG. The defense is still missing standout Youhanna Ghaifan, a key cog in the defensive line. His absence is especially problematic when facing an AFA offense that goes for 265 yards rushing per game and just went for a season-high 478 in a 42-24 win over New Mexico last week. The Pokes do have the benefit of being off a bye, but I just don't see their offense being able to score enough to get the job done. Air Force is better than its record as four of its six losses have been by six points or less. I expect them to win a relatively close game Saturday afternoon, but take the points anyway. 10* Air Force

10* Akron (3:30 ET): On their way to an eventual MAC Title Game appearance, the Zips ended an eight-game SU/ATS losing streak to Bowling Green last season. They beat them 34-23 as 2-pt road chalk, which was also their 1st win @ BG since '05. Given the current state of the Bowling Green program, you would think that Akron is perhaps about to start their own win streak in this MAC East rivalry. BG is just dreadful, having already fired HC Mike Jinks midseason. They've got zero to play for moving forward as their record is 2-8 SU. I do think it helps Akron that BG won last week (24-13 @ Centgral Michigan), meaning the Falcons now won't go winless in conference play. Avoiding that distinction was the only real thing they had left to play for. I believe this spread should be closer to two touchdowns. Lay the points. 

Akron wasn't the best team in the MAC East last year, but won the division anyway thanks to pulling a couple upsets. Neither the MAC Championship nor the Boca Raton Bowl went well for them, but right now the Zips are looking at a situation where they need to win two of their final three games to get back to the postseason. Winning this game is a must as the two final regular season games are at Ohio and South Carolina and they'll be a big dog in each. Last week's game @ Eastern Michigan could not possibly have gone worse as QB Kato Nelson was out w/ an ankle injury. They turned it over four times, including three straight possessions w/ an INT, and gained less than 100 total yds. They should be eager to atone for that performance in this final home game. 

Thankfully, BG should more than oblige to Akron's need for victory. The Falcons remain a bottom 10 team in the country as they've been outscored by more than 17 PPG over the course of the season. I was truly shocked to see them win last week as 7.5-pt road dogs as they were down 13-0 at the half to Central Michigan (who ended up gaining only 166 yds for the game). How shocking was that defensive performance by BG? Consider that they still allow 469.2 YPG. Prior to last week, they had not beaten a single FBS team all season w/ the lone win coming at home over Eastern Kentucky where they had to rally late. Remember that this Akron team holds a win over Northwestern, who will be playing in the Big 10 Championship Game! This is - on paper - the Zips' easiest FBS game of the season. I'll keep my fingers crossed that QB Nelson returns, but even if he doesn't, this is still a play w/ the backup Ramart under center. 10* Akron

8* Wake Forest (12:00 ET): The Demon Deacons treated me nicely last week as they rallied back from a 13-3 halftime deficit and beat #14 NC State 27-23 as 17.5-pt road dogs. Perhaps you may recall my analysis for that Thursday night matchup. A lot of it was based on the notion that NC State being called the 14th best team in the country was utter nonsense. But I've always been impressed w/ how Wake "shows up" for HC Dave Clawson. While the Demon Deacons are a little bit "down" this year, bowl eligibility is still on the table for a team that's 5-5 SU overall. This is also the final home game in Winston-Salem and it comes w/ two extra days to prepare. With the regular season finale being at Duke, I think a motivated Demon Deacons squad comes up big here. Take the points. 

Pitt also has something to play for, that being the ACC Coastal, a race for which they are in the driver's seat. A win here would send them to Charlotte to face Clemson for the Conference Championship. So the Panthers shouldn't be lacking for motivation themselves. But they are road favorites for just the second time all year. The first time, I played against them and they lost outright to a North Carolina team that hasn't beaten anybody else all season. Overall, the Panthers are just 1-3 SU on the road this season. After a 1-3 overall start to the season, they've kind of come from nowhere to win four of their last five, the only loss coming at Notre Dame. But of note is the fact they've been favored only once in those L5 games, that coming in LW's 52-22 demolition of Va Tech. 

Believe it or not, despite being in the same conference, these teams have NEVER met. So Winston-Salem is foreign territory for the favorites. I think the sense of urgency is far greater for the home dog, which is seeking to go bowling for a third straight year, something that has only happened ONE time in the history of the program! Pitt doesn't even need a win here to clinch the division; they can have Virginia lose at Ga Tech as well. Or just beat struggling Miami next week. The big question here surrounds Wake Forest's ability to stop a Pitt run game that has gone for 484+ yds twice in the last three weeks. I think they can as this Demon Deacons' stop unit has improved ever since a midseason change at defensive coordinator. Last week, they allowed only 47 yds rushing to NC State. To me, the biggest mismatch in this game is Wake Forest's receivers going against a Pitt pass defense that is shaky at best. The Panthers' dream of being the 6th difference school to represent the ACC Coastal in the Conf Champ Game may have to be put on hold for another week. 8* Wake Forest

8* SMU (9:00 ET) - SMU was a tremendous winner for me two weeks ago. As 14-point underdogs, they WON by two touchdowns, beating a red-hot Houston team 45-31. At the time, the Mustangs were just 3-5 SU overall, but I wrote that they were improving and am not about to back off that assessment. Last Saturday's win wasn't nearly as impressive as they failed to cover against UConn despite scoring 62 points. But then again, it was the 1st time all year that the Ponies were favored to beat a FBS opponent. This week, they're back in their more customary role of underdog and looking to gain a "leg up" in what is currently a three-way tie atop the West Division of the American Conference. I like them plus the points and also give them an excellent shot at pulling another outright upset. 

Memphis is 3-3 SU in conference play and thus NOT one of the three teams atop the division (Tulane and Houston are). The Tigers still have a chance to win the West, but a ton of things would have to go their way. Many consider them to be the best team in the division, though I would still give a slight nod to Houston (who Memphis hosts next Friday). The Tigers should have probably beaten undefeated UCF earlier in the year, but instead ended up blowing a double-digit lead in the Liberty Bowl. It's one of two 1-pt losses they've taken this year. Memphis did win the division LY (lost to UCF in 2 OT's in the Conf Champ Game) and comes into this week having scored 100 pts the L2 wks. But SMU has done the same, making this too many points to lay for the Tigers.

I think homefield matters a lot here. Memphis is just 1-3 SU on the road w/ the lone victory coming two weeks ago against East Carolina (who has zero conference wins), but that was a close game until the very end. Earlier in the year, the Tigers dropped a game (as two-touchdown chalk) at Tulane. I think the biggest reason for this large spread is that Memphis has beaten SMU four straight times, by an average of 41 PPG! But this SMU team is a lot better than years' past. Not only are they playing for a division crown here, but they still need one more win for bowl eligibility. Their offense is averaging 38.5 PPG since junior QB Ben Hicks became the permanent starter. That makes this number extremely attractive at home. 8* SMU

8* Niagara (9:00 ET): Despite the reputation of having a strong homecourt advantage (due to the hight altitude in Laramie), I had no problem fading Wyoming in their season opener. They lost - outright - as six-point favorites to UC Santa Barbara, 76-66. The Cowboys followed that up w/ another loss, at Oregon State, in their next game. They finally won for the first time on Wednesday, 86-78 over Grambling, but did not cover as 12-pt chalk. So their ATS record is now 0-3 as they return home to face Niagara. While the Purple Eagles may not be as formidable as UCSB, they can still cover the spread here, if not pull the outright upset. They've already pulled one upset, 80-72 over St. Bonaventure, though that one was at home. Take the points. 

The follow up to that upset wasn't as good for Niagara as they went down 75-62 at the hands of Loyola IL. But they still covered that game as 16.5-pt dogs. Remember that Loyola-IL was a Final Four team last March! Amazingly, the Purple Eagles stayed inside the number despite shooting less than 30% for the game! I have to imagine they'll be more productive on the offensive end tonight and a huge key to this game could be free throw shooting. Niagara shot 17 of 19 from the FT line in their last game and is 48th in FTA rate. Wyoming is 288th in opponents FTA rate. I also look for the underdog to have the rebounding edge in this battle. They are 32nd in the country so far, pulling down 38.9 boards per game. Wyoming is allowing 39.1 rpg, which ranks 303rd nationally. 

I just don't think this Wyoming team is very good this year. In my analysis for Opening Night against UCSB, I cited the fact the Pokes lost four of their top five scorers from a year ago and they project as a terrible defensive team also. Right now, the team simply can't shoot. Through the first three games, they are at just 40% overall from the field, including a dreadful 27.6% from behind the arc. That's trouble for a team that was 317th in the country in points allowed last season. So far, all three Wyoming opponents have scored at least 76 points. Giving up that many points makes it hard to cover as a favorite and it's right in line w/ what they gave up last year as well (78.7 PPG allowed). 8* Niagara

10* Over Nets/Wizards (7:05 ET): We saw just how much Brooklyn is going to miss leading scorer Caris LaVert (out indefinitely) in their 120-107 loss to Miami on Tuesday. For a second straight game, the team struggled to shoot (40.2 FG%) and reserve Spencer Dinwiddie actually ended up being their leading scorer w/ 18 points in 29 minutes. However, defense has been the bigger concern for the Nets lately as they've allowed three straight teams to shoot 52.4% or better from the floor and given up 116, 120 and 120 points. I see the struggles on that end of the floor continuing tonight against a Washington side that has averaged 117.3 PPG during a three-game win streak. Take the Over in this one. 

The Wizards started the season out very poorly by losing 9 of their first 11 games. But they've rebounded over the six days to go 3-0, including what was - easily - their best performance to date on Wednesday. Granted, it was against lowly Cleveland (who was in a back to back), but they won by 24. Thanks to a 41-point 1st quarter, the Wiz never trailed. Getting 29 points off 24 Cavaliers turnovers certainly helped as did making 13 of 40 three-point attempts. If there is one area where I expect Washington to regress though, it's defensively. Cleveland's 95 points tied a season-low for a Wizards' opponent and it can't be understated just how undermanned the Cavs were in the second night of a back to back (off a rare win no less). 

Though Wednesday marked Washington's highest scoring half of the season (73 points), they didn't receive much from John Wall, who finished the game w/ a season-low eight points in 21 minutes. He was just 3 of 10 shooting. I would expect Wall to play better tonight and thus we won't see much dropoff from the Wizards offensively. The key here is can Brooklyn find scoring options w/o LaVert? Considering Washington isn't very good defensively (26th in efficiency), they should have their chances. Six Nets players did finish in double figures in the loss to Miami. Brooklyn is 24th in defensive efficiency, so this very much could turn into an "up and down" type game. 10* Over Nets/Wizards

8* North Dakota State (2:00 ET): I do believe that the wrong team may be favored here in a 1st round matchup of the Bahamas Showcase. Miami OH might be off a 91-42 win, but it was against an overmatched opponent (Midway) w/ extreme shooting percentages. We won't be seeing the RedHawks shoot 56% again in this game nor will we see the hold the opposition to just 26%. Note that in the RedHawks' first game, they lost 90-68 at Butler with the shooting percentages basically flipped. 

Here they face a North Dakota State team off an impressive 82-63 win over Cal Santa Barbara. They held the Gauchos to just 37% shooting. That was a nice bounce back after losing out in Las Cruces (New Mex St) in the season opener. The Bison really struggled to shoot the ball in that first game, but were much better offensively on Sunday. After taking a 15-13 lead midway through the first half, they would never trail again. 

An interesting bit of handicapping here - Miami has not played in a true bracketed regular season tournament in a decade. So this format may not favor them. They are just 2-9 ATS their L11 neutral site games and don't have a ton of depth. Like I said at the outset, I think the Bison are the better team here, so I'll take the points. 8* North Dakota State

10* North Texas (9:30 ET): Last year, these two teams played in the C-USA Title Game w/ a red-hot FAU prevailing at home 41-17 as 11-pt chalk. Getting the Title Game at home, the Owls jumped out to a 34-0 lead after 33 minutes and cruised from there. It was actually their second victory of the year over the Mean Green as they'd won 69-31 in the regular season, also in Boca Raton. This year, North Texas gets the game in Denton w/ some good old fashioned double revenge on its mind. Neither team will be making it to this year's C-USA Title Game, so the double revenge angle is pretty key in handicapping this matchup. So too is the homefield advantage as UNT is 4-1 SU in Apogee Stadium, outscoring teams by 22 PPG. I'm laying the short number here. 

Florida Atlantic was one of the darlings of College Football last season as Lane Kiffin came in and let a tremendous turnaround. His predecessor (Charlie Partridge) had delivered three seasons of just three wins each, but left Kiffin w/ the most experienced team in the country. Kiffin took full advantage, leading the Owls to an 11-win season, including a 50-3 rout of Akron in the Boca Raton Bowl. The Owls swept the C-USA schedule, winning all nine games by a total of 201 points. Still, there were obvious signs that this season would not go as well and those were confirmed early on as FAU lost its first game 63-14 to Oklahoma. After going 10-3-1 ATS last season, the Owls are just 3-7 at the betting window so far this season. Some of the regression boils down to being a less experienced team (not having QB Jason Driskell hurt), the rest was probably just inevitable.

The Owls are just 3-3 in C-USA this year and playing on the road has been a major problem for them both in and out of league play. They are 1-4 SU/ATS outside of Boca Raton w/ three of those losses coming by at least 20 points. The defense is allowing 37.8 PPG on the road and the number would look even worse were it not for winning the "Shula Bowl" against rival FIU two weeks ago, 49-14. Perhaps North Texas got caught looking ahead to this game as they were upset Saturday by Old Dominion, blowing a 28-point lead (were favored by 15.5). The Mean Green were looking quite good this year before losing two of the last three games. Their three losses have been by a total of 13 points. All 10 UNT games have stayed Under this year, thanks to a defense that allows only 20.3 PPG (18.4 at home). Superior defense, homefield advantage and a case of double revenge have me on the home fave here. 10* North Texas

8* Denver (9:05 ET): After looking like one of the best teams in the league through its first 10 games, Denver has shockingly dropped four in a row, all as favorites. Most shocking of all is that the last three losses all came at home where the typically enjoy a tremendous advantage. Tonight should signal the turnaround that they've been looking for, however, as lowly Atlanta pays a visit. The Hawks have lost 9 of 10 and are playing their third road game in five nights. Most would consider them to be the worst team in the league and I cannot disagree. Lay the points. 

Tuesday marked the Nuggets' first double digit loss of the season as they fell to Houston, 109-99. That was also only the second time getting held below 100 pts. Two of their previous three losses had come by just two points. Poor defense has cost them the L2 games as they allowed Milwaukee and Houston to shoot 57.1% and 54.9%. Fortunately, the Hawks are not either Milwaukee or Houston and should be a much easier team to defend. Atlanta is just 28th in offensive efficiency and has shot better than 50% from the floor in just two games all season, one of them against Cleveland.

The Hawks also could be a little short-handed here w/ three players listed as questionable for various reasons. With a weak overall roster, that amount of absence can be devastating. Despite the losing skid, I still believe in this Nuggets team. Before losing to Houston two nights ago, the team was 6-2 ATS when on a losing streak of at least three games (over the L3 seasons). Atlanta is just 1-7 SU on the road, giving up over 118 PPG. After actually competing against both the Lakers and Warriors (who were short-handed themselves) in the last four days, the Hawks may very well run out of gas in the thin air tonight. 8* Denver

10* Fresno State (9:00 ET): Earlier in the week, I took exception w/ LSU being included in the Top 25. So I faded them and came away w/ an ATS win on Memphis. I feel even more strongly against TCU's placement in the Top 25. The Horned Frogs will come into tonight's game ranked #21 in the country, but I do not have them in my own personal top 50! So this looks like another great spot to take advantage of the pollsters and the perception they place on the betting public. I realize that TCU has a strong core group of players, but outside of their "big three" this is a relatively inexperienced team. Fresno State is only two years removed from a NCAA Tournament berth and won 21 games last season. They are absolutely capable of pulling the upset tonight in Ft. Worth. Take the points. 

Desmond Bane, JD Miller and Alex Robinson are going to have to carry this TCU squad early in the season because w/ PG Jaylen Fisher out, the other nine players are essentially all new faces. Throw in the fact that two of the new starters, Kouat Noi and Lat Mayen, are both out with knee injuries and depth has already become a bit of a concern for HC Jamie Dixon. The Horned Frogs are 2-0 thus far, but failed to cover against both CS-Bakersfield and Oral Roberts. The former matchup saw them win by only five despite being favored by 18. Dixon has never lost a November game since becoming the HC at TCU, but it could very well happen tonight, even though the Horned Frogs are double digit favorites.

Not only is Fresno State a little underrated in my eyes, the Bulldogs are also well rested coming into tonight's game. They've only played one game and it was last Tuesday against Alaska-Anchorage, an easy 91-63 win. New Mexico State transfer Braxton Higgins led the way w/ 23 points. I have to say that I'm a little shocked that the media picked this team to finish 5th in the Mt West given that FSU has won 20+ games each of the last three seasons as well as four of the last five. This rested underdog is also playing w/ a bit of revenge as they lost to TCU in the 2017 NIT, 66-59, but covered as nine-point dogs. Bottom line is that I have this game being way closer than the oddsmakers do. 10* Fresno State

8* Seattle (8:20 ET): This could prove to be an incredibly important game for two teams on the fringes of playoff contention. Seattle has played better than its 4-5 SU record indicates. They've actually outscored teams by 27 points. The issue is they've gone only 1-4 SU in games decided by seven points or less. The other loss was by eight to a very talented Chargers team, here in the last home game. Last week, for a second time this year, they lost to the mighty Rams in a close affair despite putting up 31 points. While I feel the Seahawks may very well be "underrated," I'm not so sure I can say the same for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. In fact, I think quite the opposite. Their four wins feature two miracle come from behind efforts (against Chicago & San Fran), both at home. Their other two wins are against Buffalo & Miami, two terrible teams. I think you can tell which way I'm leaning here. Seattle is deserving of far more respect here at home, especially considering Green Bay's 0-4 SU road record. Lay the short number. 

With five home games left, Seattle is definitely still capable of making some noise. They're only 1-2 SU at home so far, but the two losses were to the Rams & Chargers, two of the league's best. It seems like eons ago, but their only home win this year came in Week 3 against Dallas. Despite this, the Seahawks remain a team to be feared at Century Link Field where they've won 27 of their last 37 games, particularly in primetime. Another reason to like them is they simply do not lose three games in a row very often. The last time it happened was 2011, the year before Russell Wilson arrived. Since then, they've gone 6-0 SU/ATS when off B2B losses, including that home win over Dallas back in Wk 3. 

Seattle has the league's top ranked rushing attack at 152.2 YPG. Expect them to exploit a Packers' run defense that ranks in the bottom third of the league, giving up 4.5 yards per carry. That YPC average is what's huge because no team runs the ball more than Seattle. Last week against Miami, even though they won 31-12, Green Bay surrendered 131 yds on just 23 carries (Dolphins had to abandon the run when they fell behind). Over the last four weeks, they've given up 141.5 yards per game on the ground. Again, the Pack have not won a road game this year. They've allowed 30.5 PPG in the four losses. West Coast teams usually have an edge facing non-West Coast teams in primetime games (look up Circadian Advantage).  8* Seattle 

10* Colorado State (9:00 ET): Colorado State has had to start the year short-handed thanks to redshirting and a suspension. But it's hardly mattered as they easily disposed of two non-board teams (Colorado Christian and Ark-Pine Bluff) by an average of nearly 30 PPG. The Rams have been able to sustain the personnel losses to the fact they're a deep team this year w/ multiple freshman already contributing. First year HC Niko Medved is doing a good job w/ this team and they should have very little difficulty dominating a terrible Montana State team Wednesday night. Lay the points. 

Montana State won for the 1st time on Sunday, beating a school named "Presentation College," (a NAIA school). But before that, the Bobcats had been absolutely annihilated in their first two games, losing 101-71 to Utah State and 80-35 at Indiana. I don't think tonight's game will go a whole lot better for them. Against Indiana, which was a road game, the Bobcats shot a dismal 25.5% from the field, which is one of the lowest percentages you'll see all season. I think the fact we're getting this team off a rare win is helpful. Not only is the spread not as high as it should be, but the players themselves might now be a bit overconfident. 

When it comes to depth, this matchup is a no-contest. Six different players are averaging at least 12 PPG for Colorado State while two players account for 44% of total scoring for Montana State. If the Rams can shut down either MSU standout, Keljin Blevins or Tyler Hall, then they'll have no problem winning this game in a romp. Turnovers should also be key here as the Bobcats have been giving away possessions quite regularly so far. They had 25 turnovers against Indiana, for example. In two games, CSU has turned it over just 15 times. Montana State is a program w/ eight straight losing seasons and they simply are overmatched again tonight. 10* Colorado State

10* St. Louis (8:05 ET): Only now (I think) are people starting to realize how bad the Blackhawks really are. I feel like I've been a bit "ahead of the curve" on this one, playing against them regularly in the first month of the season. The most recent time was actually two weeks ago to the day when I grabbed Vancouver at "plus money" (+123 on the ML) and came away w/ a 4-2 victory. At the time, it was the third straight loss suffered by Chicago. Well, two weeks later and they haven't won since w/ the losing streak now up to eight straight and counting. The firing of former HC Joel Quenneville has done nothing to alter the trajectory of this team. They're just bad. 

Despite Chicago's losing streak, they're actually still ahead of St. Louis in the Central Division. But by just one point. But digging deeper, you quickly uncover something important. The Blues may be a last place team, but at 6-6-3, they've actually outscored the opposition this year. The Blackhawks have a -16 goal differential. That is 2nd worst (Kings) in all of hockey. St. Louis has won 4 of 6, but does enter tonight off a loss, 3-2 to Minnesota on Sunday. They've had two days off to prepare for tonight's game and a big key is the Blues have only gotten to face two teams with losing records so far this season. They've won both games. 

This is actually already the fourth meeting between these teams this season. Chicago took the first two, both in overtime. St. Louis gained a measure of revenge on October 27th, winning 7-3 on home ice. That's the game that started the current slide for Chicago. Note that when the Blackhawks had a 2-0 lead Monday in Carolina, it was the first time they'd led since the coaching change. They obviously blew that lead (lost 3-2 in OT) and are now still searching for answers that may not come for awhile. St. Louis can score (4th in the league in goals per game), so like the last meeting (scored 7 goals) they should have their way w/ a Blackhawks club that is 30th in goals allowed. 10* St. Louis

10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): I have these teams rated fairly even, so it looks like the wrong one is favored when you take into account where the game is being played. Miami is hardly a bunch of "world beaters" (lost three in a row & six of eight), so they really shouldn't be road favorites against anybody right now, save for the dregs of the league. Granted, the Nets have spent several seasons being counted among the dregs, but they appear to be much improved for 2018-19. They haven't played a ton of home games so far, but have managed to start the season at a respectable 6-8 SU. Take the points. 

The Nets were 6-6 SU before dropping their last two games, both of which were on the road and one was at Golden State. Monday night saw them lose 120-113 in Minnesota where the story was a scary looking injury to Caris LeVert. Thankfully, it appears as if the injury is not as serious as initially believed and LeVert can still return later this season. I suspect the injury has a lot to do w/ the Nets being underdogs here. LeVert was their leading scorer (18.4 PPG), so him being out definitely hurts. But I think there's enough remaining talent on hand to compete and certainly win this game. Miami's defense hasn't been good of late w/ them allowing an average of 114 pts over the L8 games. 

The Heat have won 11 of the previous 15 meetings w/ the Nets. But these are two franchises trending in opposite directions right now. Brooklyn took three of the four meetings last season. Miami is a bit of a mess having turned the ball over 15+ times in 10 of their 13 games. They were also called for 30 fouls in Monday's 124-114 loss to Philadelphia. Something else to note is that Miami's last three losses all came at home. Their two road wins this year have been by a total of six points w/ one coming by a single point at sorry Washington. They too are missing personnel and it's pretty clear to me that they're an overvalued team in the marketplace. 10* Brooklyn

10* Ohio (7:00 ET):  This is a big revenge game for Ohio, who lost last year in Buffalo as six-point favorites, 31-24. It was an absolutely horrendous spot for Frank Solich's Bobcats as they'd just been upset the week prior, at Akron, basically costing them a shot at the MAC Title Game. The situation is alarmingly similar Wednesday w/ Ohio having been upset by rival Miami last week, a result that severely hurt their chances of getting to this year's MAC Title Game. Had they won in Oxford, then this game basically would have been a de facto MAC East Championship. As it stands now, Ohio is now two games back in the division and would need to win out plus have Buffalo lose next week at Bowling Green (which is highly unlikely to happen). 

Still, there are some notable differences between this matchup and the one that took place last year. For starters, the game will be played in Athens where OU is 4-0 SU and averaging a whopping 49.2 points per game. Their average margin of victory in those four contests is 23.7 points. The home team has won eight straight times in this MAC East rivalry. The Bobcats are probably better than their overall record as three of their four losses this year have been by 4 points or less (9 pts total). While I would have loved to get them as a dog here, the bottom line is that this team is 47-13 SU its L60 home games and laying the shortest of numbers.

With the division now all but wrapped up, I believe that it's UB that's more likely to overlook this week's matchup. When these teams met last year, Ohio was in the dumps and Buffalo was looking to become bowl eligible (it was the regular season finale). The two teams came out and played like you'd think, based on the respective emotions, with the Bulls taking an early 24-7 lead before holding on for the seven-point victory. The job that Lance Leipold has done here at UB is quite remarkable and I give his Bulls an excellent shot at beating Northern Illinois next month in Detroit (MAC Champ Game). But Wednesday should belong to a revenge-minded Ohio team fighting to keep its own dreams alive. Remember, I played AGAINST Ohio last week in Miami, another game where they fell into a huge early hole (down 28-7) before fighting back and ultimately coming up short. Ohio is still the (slightly) better team here though and at home. 10* Ohio

10* Toronto (10:35 ET): It's taken some "getting used to," but I now view the Kings as one of the league's weaker teams. They currently reside in the basement of the Pacific Division (only 11 points) and have been outscored by 17 goals this season. That's the worst goal differential in the league right now. Those expecting any kind of turnaround will have to wait awhile longer as this visit from Toronto figures not to go very well considering the Maple Leafs will be looking to bounce back from a loss themselves. The ML favorite is being way undervalued here. 

It was bound to happen sooner rather than later and definitely on this challenging four-game trip. Toronto finally lost a road game on Saturday, coming up way short in a 5-1 final in Boston. The Leafs had won their first six road games to open the year and were the last unbeaten team on the road in the league. Like I just said, the road loss was bound to occur and I actually believe its a "good thing" to get it out of the way in the first game of the trip. No one wants to lose obviously, but I would have found it hard to believe to think the Leafs were going to sweep this trip. After tonight, they're in San Jose and Anaheim on Thursday and Friday, so this game sets up as the easiest of the entire trip. Toronto already beat the Kings, 4-1, back on October 15th.

The Kings are last in the league in scoring right now, averaging just over 2.0 goals per game. That presents a massive edge for the Maple Leafs, who are top five in the league in scoring as well as top seven in goals allowed. LA has scored only one goal in its last two games as they simply aren't getting the puck on net very much anymore. They are near the bottom of the league in that department, which is an issue in a game where they'll likely need to score a lot just to keep up. Meanwhile, Toronto is a perfect 4-0 this season after allowing 4+ goals the previous game. Did I mention that the Kings are also now without their top two goaltenders, leaving either Peter Budaj or the completely untested Cal Peterson to start tonight between the pipes. The Kings have already made a change behind the bench this year (coaching change), so they're all out of tricks unfortunately. 10* Toronto

8* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET): Wrong place, wrong time for the Sabres, even on home ice. That's because TB is off a humiliating defeat its last time out, losing 6-4 to Ottawa as -320 home favorites. The last two times that the Lightning have been off a loss, they have rebounded by blowing out their next opponent. On October 30th, they destroyed New Jersey 8-3. Then, four days later, they won 4-1 at Montreal. In fact, they have yet to be beaten consecutive times so far this season. The Lightning still lead the Atlantic w/ 25 points and are the highest scoring team in the league. They should have little to no difficulty defeating a Buffalo team that I still think is getting too much hype. 

The Sabres have won their past two games by scoring 10 goals. But those wins came at the expense of Montreal and Vancouver, the latter occurring here at home. Tonight will obviously be a big step up in class in terms of opponent. I will admit that Buffalo has done an excellent job at getting the puck on net recently, which has led to plenty of goals scored. However, they were actually outshot by both the Habs and Canucks. Also, in each instance, the Sabres had to beyond regulation to get the two points. They won in OT and then a shootout and that's only after they tied both games late in regulation. Both of those wins could easily have been losses. Over the last three seasons, this team is 15-34 SU after scoring 4+ goals in its previous game. 

Tampa Bay is indeed tops in the league in goals per game w/ an average of 3.7. They've scored four or more in five consecutive games. Some of their biggest scoring efforts of the year have been off a loss. In the four previous games they've played off a loss, the Lightning have averaged a simply stunning 6.5 gpg, scoring 8 twice and 6 in another. So look for Sabres' goaltender Carter Hutton to be under siege tonight. I give the Lightning a big edge between the pipes w/ Andrei Vasilevskiy starting. He has a .934 save percentage on the road so far. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Memphis (7:00 ET): This looks to be too many points that LSU is laying in their first "real" test of the season. Like every other game in this package, it's also a revenge spot for the team I'm taking. Memphis, in its first year under Penny Hardaway, figures to be a lot better than they were the last couple of seasons. They won their 1st game for Hardaway, as expected, 76-61 over Tennessee Tech. But they just missed out on the cover as 16-pt favorites. I'm going to like this Tigers team more as a dog anyway, like tonight. A dreadful shooting night cost them last year against LSU. The same thing won't happen again this time. Take the points.

LSU is 2-0 having topped 90 pts in both games. But there is some cause for concern, especially at the defensive end of the floor. In a 97-91 win over UNC Greensboro over the weekend, they allowed 19 made three-pointers, the most EVER by a visiting team in Baton Rouge! Overall, the Tigers are allowing 46.4% shooting from behind the arc, which will absolutely come back to bite them if that number can't come down. Memphis is a big step up in class for them after facing SE Louisiana and UNC Greensboro. LSU is a young team as well w/ freshman accounting for more than 50% of their total pts so far. 

Memphis has a lot of freshman they're hoping to see contribute as well. The four newcomers to the program struggled against Tenn Tech, but I see their collective numbers improving after they combined to shoot just 5 of 24 in that opening game. Hardaway luckily can rely on his seniors, one of them being Mike Parks Jr, who had to miss the opener due to a back injury. I mentioned earlier that Memphis shot the ball terribly LY vs. LSY. They were just 37.3% from the field, including 4 of 22 from three-point range, in the 71-61 loss as 2-pt home dogs. This year's squad is going to do better. I'm not sure why LSU finds itself in the Top 25 this week; I barely count them among my top 50 teams in the country. 8* Memphis

10* Florida International (7:00 ET): Wisconsin-Milwaukee has started out the season quite poorly w/ losses to Boston College (by 20) and North Dakota. Expect FIU to have little sympathy for the Panthers however, as this is a revenge spot for them. It stems from a 66-51 loss last season, which took place in Milwaukee where "our" Panthers were 13-pt underdogs. This time around, it would appear that FIU has a sizable edge, though it's not being properly accounted for by the oddsmakers. I'll gladly step in and lay the short number here as the favorite should take care of business. 

It may been two clearly overmatched opponents, but FIU is certainly feeling optimistic about its chances here based on a 2-0 start. They topped 100 pts against both Webber College and Johnson & Wales, two non-board teams. They averaged 113.5 PPG on 52.3% shooting in the pair of wins. Looking ahead, it may never again be quite that easy offensively, but the Panthers should definitely find ways to score in this game. 1st year HC Jeremy Ballard, the latest to be plucked from the VCU coaching tree, walked into a great situation here by inheriting four returning starters. Offense was the primary concern coming into the year, but Ballard's boys seem well on their way to blowing past LY's production when FIU ranked 317th nationally in three-point shooting. 

FIU is also playing some defense as it held the first two opponents to just 31.1% shooting while forcing 55 turnovers! Again, I realize the teams that they played had no chance. But the performances will definitely give this team some confidence for its first "real" test of the season. Wisc-Milwaukee is shooting a dreadful 30.3% from the floor so far and managed only 17 first half pts Saturday at home vs. North Dakota. It's a bad sign when you're leaning on a transfer who only averaged 1.4 PPG last season. Wisc-Milwaukee has just three players total back from LY's sub-.500 squad, including only one starter. They are going to struggle this year. 10* Florida International

8* UNC Wilmington (7:00 ET): Yet another revenge spot! Although unlike the other two matchups in this report, this is NOT a battle of teams w/ the same nickname. It is, however, a battle of in-state rivals. UNC Greensboro won LY's meeting, 71-58, as 8.5-pt home chalk. It would appear as if the oddsmakers are giving the Spartans a bit too much "credit" out here on the road. I can only assume that has to do w/ them taking #22 LSU down to the wire in Baton Rouge over the weekend. By making 19 three-pointers in the contest, the Spartans were easily able to cover the 10-pt spread in a 97-91 loss. But I don't think they'll replicate that kind of shooting here. 

UNC Wilmington is 0-2 on the year, so they enter tonight as a desperate team. A 97-93 loss to Campbell was an auspicious start to the year, but be aware that game went into overtime. It was close the whole way. That game was on the road, so the Seahawks hoped for better in their home debut Friday vs. Stanford where they were drawing an opponent making a rare cross-country trip. Unfortunately, the Seahawks lost that game by 13 on a bad offensive night (shot just 35.2% overall). They did lead by as many as eight early, but actually went into the break down 14 thanks to a 7 1/2 minute stretch w/o a field goal. 

So you have one team, laying points on the road, coming off a historically great shooting night. Then you have a home dog coming off a poor shooting performance. I'll side with the latter here in what should be a bounce back performance. It was poor shooting that cost the Seahawks last year's meeting. But I don't see that happening again. This is more points than they were getting against Stanford, which seems crazy. This is also UNC Greensboro's third straight road game to open the year, all played within a span of a week. Good spot to fade them. 8* UNC Wilmington

10* Under Spurs/Kings (10:05 ET): The Western Conference is just LOADED this season w/ only a handful of teams aware that they are not playoff contenders. Sacramento was supposed to be among those "building for the future," but even they have surprisingly started 7-6 SU despite being an underdog in all but one game. Meanwhile, it's an interesting year in San Antonio as this is the first time in about 20 seasons where the Spurs are NOT projected to be Conference Title contenders (hence the short line for this matchup). Thanks to a lot of high totals, the Kings have been going Under with more regularity of late. This O/U line isn't quite as high, but I believe the trend will continue against a Spurs team that still knows how to play defense. 

Case in point; the Spurs just held the Rockets to 89 points in a key win Saturday night. Now the Rockets may not be what they were a season ago, but that's still a pretty impressive number to hold ANY opponent to, in this day and age. The Spurs held Miami to just 95 pts last Wednesday, but the only thing there is they lost that game by six points. With virtually the entire core of the last several seasons gone, San Antonio is probably going to struggle to score this season. They also continue to play at a very slow pace (tied for 26th) under HC Greg Popovich. But they'll continue to lean on that defensive play which has limited four of the last five points to 95 pts or fewer. 

Sacramento has had no luck through the years against San Antonio, losing the last 14 meetings. What's pretty remarkable about that is they have NEVER once topped 105 pts in the 14-game losing skid. It's certainly not a good sign that they scored only 85 pts Saturday night against a Lakers team not exactly known for its defense and shot just 34.8% from the floor. I don't think for a second that the Kings will be able to maintain a .500 record for very long, but if there is one positive development it's them ranking middle of the pack in defensive efficiency after spending years near the bottom of the league in that category. They have held five of their last nine opponents below 42% shooting. The Under is 5-1 so far in Sacramento home games. 10* Under Spurs/Kings.

10* NY Giants (8:15 ET): For a second straight week, the 49ers find themselves involved in a less than stellar primetime matchup. Only this time QB Nick Mullens is more of a "selling point." Making his 1st career start last Thursday vs. Oakland, Mullens stunned just about everyone by throwing for 262 yards and three touchdowns in 34-3 win, just the Niners' second victory of the year. Statistically speaking, it was considered the finest debut by any QB in league history. That's made all the more impressive by the fact Mullens is an undrafted free agent that spent time on the practice squad. But he won't be sneaking up on anybody this time, even if "anybody" means the lowly 1-7 Giants, who are about as desperate for a win as a team could possibly be. They're off a bye and I'll take the points. 

No matter what Odell Beckham Jr says, the Giants aren't going to make the playoffs. But with this game and hosting Tampa Bay next week, they at least have some winnable games on the horizon. Eli Manning's days as a viable starter in this league are over, but it's inexcusable how poorly this offense has performed given the talent at the skill positions, whether you're talking Beckham or Saquon Barkley. It's not all Manning's fault mind you; the offensive line is bad as well. However, something to keep in mind here is that the Giants are a better team than the Raiders, who basically laid down last Thursday vs. the 49ers. I expect effort from the G-Men coming off the bye. 

Another important point when handicapping this game is the line itself. The 49ers actually closed as a slight dog vs. the Raiders for the Thurs night home game. But off the shockingly great performance from Mullens, they are now favorites this week. That's critical to note because the Niners are money-burning 1-12 ATS as chalk w/ eight outright losses. Again, the Giants have had plenty of time to prepare for Mullens, a luxury the Raiders did not have. The Giants have lost a number of one score games this season while SF had not won a game by more than three points in 2018 before facing the Raiders. The Giants are the play here. 10* NY Giants 

8* LA Monroe (8:00 ET): This is a bad spot for Texas to be laying so many points. Shaka Smart's Longhorns just survived an overtime game against Arkansas over the weekend, winning 73-71. Despite leading at the half, the Horns were somewhat lucky to even get the game into OT considering they went almost 10 minutes in the 2H w/o making a single field goal. Close games have somewhat become the norm in Austin under HC Smart as half of their games LY were decided in the final minute or overtime. Heck, they only won their opener against Eastern Illinois by 12 points. LA Monroe is an underdog deserving of respect. The Warhawks won't win, but they'll keep it close.

There was some fear in Monroe that this team might struggle to score in 2018-19 due to being fairly thin along the front line. However, so far, those fears have proven to be unfounded. Four players are averaging double figures so far, led by senior Daishon Smith (17.0 PPG), a transfer from Wichita State. And the concern about a lack of big men hasn't really mattered as the Warhawks have blocked 15 shots in two games, both wins. They've won at Jackson State (75-66) and then clobbered non-board team Millsaps 94-52 Saturday in the home opener. Against Millsaps, they shot better than 50%. Obviously, it's going to be a far greater challenge tonight. But this dog can score enough to stay within a generous number, in my opinion.

These squads met last year w/ Texas winning easily, 80-59 as 17.5-pt chalk. Both teams are better this season, so I'm a bit surprised to find the spread has increased for this rematch. LA Monroe shot very poorly LY here in Austin, making only 30% of their total shot attempts, including 8 of 34 from three-point range. They also attempted only 11 free throws. It's been established that the Warhawks are much better offensively now than they were at this time a year ago. We'll see about the size issue, but the Longhorns might still be gassed from playing an OT game 48 hrs ago. Plus they struggled to score, making covering a large number like this problematic. 8* LA Monroe

10* Pittsburgh (7:00 ET): Pitt is off to a nice start this season w/ a pair of double digit wins over Youngstown State and VMI coming by an average of 27.5 PPG. That may not sound like a whole lot to get excited about, but remember the Panthers hit a program low point last year when they went winless in ACC play. Right now, this team is underrated (and should continue to be in the early part of the season) as I love the Jeff Capel hire as HC. Capel learned under Coach K. While he has a young team, it's one that is coming together more quickly than expected. Lay the points.

Troy comes into this game 1-1. They did lead by as many as 13 at St. Louis on Saturday, but could not hold on due to poor shooting. The Trojans shot just 38.9% for the game, including a woeful 23.8% from three-point range. It was certainly a far cry from their 96-50 victory in the season opener against Fort Valley State, but then again that was to be expected given FVS is a D-II team. My view is that the Trojans are going to continue to struggle to score as Wesley Person (graduated) is going to be missed this season. Person scored more than 2,000 points and shot better than 37% from 3-pt range in his four years here.

Adding to Troy's offensive problems here is the fact Pitt held its first two opponents to 26.9% and 33.9% shooting and an average of 54 points. At the same time, Pitt shot 63% from the floor against VMI (who admittedly is NOT known for its defensive prowess). Three freshman have stepped up for the Panthers, who also got senior Jared Wilson-Frame back in the lineup vs. VMI. Pitt has covered its last six non-conference games and while Troy did cover at St. Louis, they're just 1-4 ATS when off an ATS win. 10* Pittsburgh

10* Denver (8:05 ET): This already figured to be a terrible spot for Milwaukee as it's their fifth game in eight days, third in four and second of a back to back. It's also the finale of a four-game trip out West and they're ending in Denver after playing in the Pacific Time Zone (LA) yday. Losing that hour is critical as going from the West Coast to Denver has long been one of the most brutal spots any NBA team can face not just b/c of the time change, but also due to the thin air here, which leads to added fatigue. Never mind the fact that the Nuggets are also now one of the NBA's best teams. So that's what Milwaukee was already up against coming into Sunday and now the situation is made worse by the fact they lost an overtime game Saturday to the Clippers. The Bucks are a big-time fade for me tonight. 

Milwaukee was "riding high" coming into the weekend as they were 9-2 and coming off a 134-111 thrashing of the Warriors (in Oakland) on Thursday. But the OT loss to the Clippers yesterday afternoon had to take a lot out of them. They were down 15 early, but battled back and it's a game they could have won. But they lost on a buzzer beater instead. While on the subject of winning, I should point out that's something that Milwaukee has NOT done here in Denver since 2010. Also, the Bucks are only 3-3 SU on the road this year. They've lost three of the past four road games in fact. 

Don't expect the Nuggets to feel the least bit sorry for the Bucks tonight. They are coming off B2B two-point losses to Memphis and Brooklyn, the latter coming right here at home. It was Denver's 1st home loss of the season. But they're still 6-1 SU here and outscoring visitors by 10 PPG. Despite losing to Brooklyn 112-110 on Friday (I had the Over!), Nuggets star Nikola Jokic had a breakout game w/ 37 points and 21 rebounds. Jokic been shockingly quiet in the team's previous four contests, so it was nice to see him assert himself. I'll call for another big game from him tonight. This may be a battle of two teams in the top five in the league right now, but one has a clear advantage. Last weekend, the Nuggets beat Utah by double digits in a similar situation. 10* Denver

10* Oakland (4:05 ET): Ok, so I KNOW what you're already saying. "Not the Raiders!" This team has certainly become somewhat of a "dumpster fire" here in 2018 w/ HC Jon Gruden totally dismantling the roster and the results (1-7 SU record) speak for themselves. But I have tremendous faith in my own personal power rankings and they say that - getting double digits at home - the Raiders are a tremendous value this week. Consider for a moment that when they played the Chargers out in LA last month, they were "only" a six-point dog. Now they lost the game 26-10 and have certainly not played much better since. But this is a ton of points at home. Take 'em.

The Chargers are a hot team right now as they've won five straight to get to 6-2 SU on the year. They are off perhaps their most impressive victory to date, 25-17 at Seattle. Before that, the list of teams that Los Angeles had beaten - Bills, 49ers, Raiders, Browns, Titans - wasn't all that impressive. Note that LW's game in Seattle hinged on an INT return for a TD early in the 4Q. But total yds were relatively even in that game (375-356 in favor of the Chargers). To me, this sets up to be the classic "trap game" for the Lightning Bolts, who have not been DD road favorites since 2009. Three of their last five victories have been by eight points or less.

Oakland was humiliated on national TV in its last game, a 34-3 loss to a 49ers team starting a 3rd string QB. That was on a Thursday, so at least they've had extra time to prepare here. As bad as things look right now for the Raiders, this is a division game coming on the heels of being mocked by everyone for a terrible effort. If they can't "get up" for this game, then you might as well just move them to Vegas on Monday. Too many points, not to take here. 10* Oakland

10* Under Fort Wayne/Ohio State (4:00 ET): Obviously, this is not a matchup I'd normally pay much attention to, unless something caught my eye. In this instance, we have a clearly inflated total due to the previous peformance of one of the two participants and that performance clearly is not going to be duplicated again here. I'm referencing Fort Wayne and their 112-point effort Thursday against D-III Earlham College where five players scored in double figures. It's a big step up in class for the Mastadons on Sunday as they visit Ohio State. 

While everyone in Columbus is probably still out celebrating yday's win on the football field over Michigan State, hopefully the basketball team's 64-56 win over Cincinnati was not missed. Wednesday night saw the Buckeyes (were +4.5) upset the Bearcats in the latter's return to its on-campus arena where it didn't even get to play one game all of last season. OSU did it w/ defense, holding Cincy to a ridiculously low 27.4% shooting for the game. It was a shockingly easy victory for the Buckeyes, who led virtually the entire way and at point held the Bearcats w/o a field goal for eight minutes in the 1st half. 

We obviously need to be wary of the Fort Wayne defense here as it was torched for 96 points by UCLA in the season's first game. But I don't see Ohio State coming close to matching that here, given they were hardly world-beaters offensively Wednesday night. They're looking to replace some key contributors from LY's 25-win team, including their top three-point shooter. Right before the start of the season, both of these teams lost a player; Ohio State via transfer and Ft. Wayne to injury. Note that Ft. Wayne was a dreadful 9 of 34 from three-point range in the game vs. UCLA. One good thing is they're allowing just 30% shooting from behind the arc in the two games. Look for this be more of a "grind it out" type game. 10* Under Fort Wayne/Ohio State  

8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): There was a brief glimmer of hope early in the season (started 2-2-1), but it's back to the "same old Browns" as Cleveland has lost four in a row coming into this week. They fired both their HC (Hue Jackson) and OC (Todd Haley) two weeks ago, but that hardly mattered as the defense couldn't stop Kansas CIty in a 37-21 loss on Sunday. But few teams have been able to stop the Chiefs' offense this season. What's interesting here is that the lookahead line for this game had Cleveland getting only two points from the oddsmakers. After another blowout loss and Atlanta crushing Washington last week, the spread has moved substantially. To the point where now I believe we're getting some nice value w/ the Browns. Take the points.

The Falcons have fought their way back to 4-4 SU, winning three in a row. I don't think there's any denying that they are off their best game of the season, a 38-14 win over the Redskins where they rolled up nearly 500 total yds on a pretty good defense. But it was also the first time all season that Atlanta won a game by more than seven points. This is the second of back to back road games for the team, a situation they have not yet faced in 2018 and won't be in again for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, Cleveland is getting to play a second straight home game. The knock on Atlanta for years is that they aren't as good outdoors and Cleveland should be pretty chilly on Sunday. 

Incredibly, the Browns are on a 13-game ATS losing streak in the month of November. They have a banged up secondary coming into this game, which isn't good when facing a QB like Matt Ryan. But, despite the lack of success, the Browns have been largely competitive this season. They've gone to overtime FOUR times (1-2-1) and only three of their nine games have been decided by more than four points. All three have been in the last four weeks. I like the spot here and expect them to be competitive as QB Baker Mayfield actually played well last week, throwing for almost 300 yards. The Browns' defense is better than what it showed last week and has forced 23 turnovers on the year, a league-high. Meanwhile, the Atlanta defense is still 4th worst in the league in efficiency due to a combo of injuries and a tough schedule. The Falcons were 1-3 ATS as road favorites of a FG or more last season. 8* Cleveland

8* Detroit (1:00 ET): Another game where the line has shifted somewhat significantly from the lookahead. In this instance, the Bears are now favored over the Lions by about a touchdown, rather than a field goal. The shift has a lot to do w/ last week as the Bears routed Buffalo (41-9) while the Lions lost at Minnesota, 24-9. But sometimes looks can be deceiving as Chicago was actually outgained by the Bills (264-190) only to feast on Nathan Peterman turnovers, two of which were returned for touchdowns. Meanwhile, Detroit wasn't as bad as the final score showed last week. They had more first downs than the Vikings, but unfortunately allowed QB Matt Stafford to be sacked 10 times. The Lions have beaten the Bears 9 of the last 10 meetings. Take the points. 

With Chicago now "expected" to win, let's see how they perform. At the start of the year, this was a team that I said could surprise and get to 9-7 SU and the playoffs. That's precisely the trajectory that we're looking at right now. Perhaps their 5-3 SU record should not come as any shock seeing as they've been favored in six of their eight games. It's impressive that they are 5-3 ATS, but now the spreads are starting to get bigger. While they did cover last week as big road favorites, as I mentioned there were extenuating circumstances there. Before the last two weeks, only one of their games (a 48-10 win over Tampa Bay) had been decided by more than seven points. I'm just not convinced this team is ready to cover a third straight game as a big favorite.

Detroit should have the edge at QB in this game. The Bears' Mitchell Trubisky threw for only 355 yards (total) the last two weeks. For Chicago, this could be a lookahead spot as they have a huge home game vs. Minnesota next week (for 1st place in the NFC North). Meanwhile, Matt Patricia's Lions are fighting for relevancy. Another loss for them and the season would basically be over at 3-6 SU. We should be getting their best shot. I just feel this number is an overreaction to the final scores we've seen from both sides the L2 wks. Detroit isn't as bad and Chicago isn't as good as we've seen during that time. 8* Detroit

8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): The Titans picked up a much needed win on MNF, going to Dallas and beating the Cowboys 28-14 as 4-pt underdogs. Now they're on a short week against the Patriots, who are off a primetime win themselves, theirs coming Sunday night at home against Green Bay. While facing Bill Belichick on a short week is hardly ideal, at least the Titans have a former player for Belichick on their sidelines in the form of HC Mike Vrabel. So that helps. So too does getting this game in Nashville where they've won 12 of their last 15 games. New England hasn't been nearly as impressive on the road this year, losing at both Detroit and Jacksonville and needing a tackle on the 1-yd line to win in Chicago. Their lone road win this year by more than seven points was in Buffalo and even then they needed a late "pick-six" to cover. Take the points. 

Two of Tennessee's four losses this year have been by a single point. They have just one loss by more than seven points and that was the last time they played a home game, three weeks ago vs. Baltimore (lost 21-0). That game saw them get completely overwhelmed by the Ravens' top-ranked defense, but I don't see that happening again here. Also, in four road games, the Patriots offense has only scored seven touchdowns, three of those in one game (Chicago). The Titans have a really good defense having not allowed more than 20 pts in regulation since Week 1. Another key factor in handicapping this game is Tennessee had its bye two weeks ago, so they are relatively "fresh." New England has yet to have its bye (comes next week) and is playing a 10th consecutive week.

Both teams won by two touchdowns last week, but for the Patriots, things were actually much closer than they ended up. The game was tied 17-17 and Green Bay was marching down for the go-ahead score when they fumbled the ball away. Meanwhile, the Titans largely dominated the Cowboys, outgaining them 340-297 and holding them scoreless in the second half. The Titans' offensive numbers for the year may not seem that impressive, but few teams have faced a tougher slate of defenses and they just scored their season high in points. The New England defense isn't that great as they have given up over six yards per play on the road. I'm actually expecting this to be a pretty low-scoring game, which will give the Titans a chance at the upset. 8* Tennessee

8* UNLV (10:30 ET): Second week in a row I'm playing against San Diego State in the late Saturday timeslot. Last week was a pretty easy win w/ New Mexico getting double digits at home. The Lobos scored a defensive touchdown early and led almost the whole way. Eventually, the Aztecs pulled out the win - and they should have, given a massive 401-142 edge in total yards - but it took three late scores to do so. Despite this, and all the team's deficiencies we discussed last week, we again find SDSU laying a big number, only this time at home. And again, I'll grab the points. 

UNLV comes into this game off a 48-3 loss at home (to Fresno State) and w/ an uncertain QB situation. The team desperately is hoping for Armani Rogers to be healthy enough to play here, but he probably won't start. Out since September 22nd, Rogers' absence has played a significant role in the Rebels' disappointing season. They haven't won since the injury, losing six straight, many of the blowout variety. No longer do the Rebels have a shot at being bowl eligible, but knocking off a team like San Diego State could be a season highlight. Now an outright win here would surprise me, but I do think the Rebels can certainly keep it close, especially with Rogers back.

If Rogers were to play, it would create a situation where San Diego State would have to prepare for two very different QB's, the more mobile Rogers and the traditional passer Max Gilliam. Last week was not indicative of where this UNLV program is really at right now. They were up against the best team in the Mountain West and were w/o their best offensive player (Rogers). With Rogers back, the Rebels become a much more effective offense when it comes to running the ball. As discussed last week, San Diego State has not been able to blow teams out this year. This is due to a combination of committing too many penalties and an offense that averages only 22.2 PPG (less than the spread here!). Last week was actually the Aztecs' highest scoring effort of the year! They're 0-6 ATS as favorites in 2018 and have not won a game by more than eight points. Their six wins over FBS schools have come by a total of 31 points. 8* UNLV

10* Houston (8:35 ET): It's still only November, but the Rockets REALLY need a win here. Call it the "curse of Carmelo Anthony" or whatever else you'd like, but this team is only 4-6 SU and just lost to the Russell Westbrook-less Thunder on Thursday. It was their third straight game getting held under 100 points and the fourth time in the last five games! This is a team that was neck and neck w/ Golden State for the top spot in offensive efficiency last year and was within one game of the NBA Finals. There were only seven instances all of last year's regular season where the Rockets were held below 100 pts and one of them was the meaningless final game. I'm expect an 'A' game from them tonight in San Antonio. 

This isn't the same Spurs team as we're used to seeing as the entire core of the past several seasons is gone. But they still have Greg Popovich coaching and DeMar DeRozan has somewhat stepped into a leadership role. But, like Houston, the Spurs are off a pretty poor performance as they were held to only 88 points on 33.3% shooting Wednesday night in Miami. It was the lowest shooting percentage in a game by any Spurs team dating back to '08. LaMarcus Aldridge was a woeful 2 of 14 from the floor despite grabbing 16 rebounds. It was also San Antonio's second straight loss as they fell here at home to Orlando on Sunday. 

San Antonio has played only twice since Sunday while this is Houston's fifth game in nine days. There's no sugarcoating how bad the Rockets played in OKC as they trailed for the entire second half and got down by as many as 25 points. But before that they'd won three in row and were starting to show signs of a turnaround. Slow start to the season or not, I believe they are the better team here and I will lay the short number. They won three of four against the Spurs last season. 10* Houston

10* Under Rice/La Tech (7:00 ET): Well, it's official. With last week's home loss to UTEP, you have to consider Rice to be the worst team in the country. The Owls are 1-9 SU, their one win coming by three points (in the season opener) against FCS Prairie View A&M. Since then, they've lost every game by at least 14 points w/ one exception. Last week's loss to UTEP. But they trailed the Miners 34-3 early in the second half before storming back w/ a furious rally. Keep in mind that UTEP is a team that had lost its previous 20 games. So now it's Rice w/ the longest active losing streak in the country. It's not likely to end in the next two weeks either, which will be spent in the state of Louisiana. There's a game at LSU, but not before this one in Ruston.

La Tech doesn't exactly come into this week in fine form. They were blown out last week at Mississippi State, 45-3. Though they likely didn't expect to win (were 23-point underdogs), that result still had to be disappointing nonetheless. It was their third loss of the season, though the C-USA West Division is still technically in play. It doesn't help that the Bulldogs lost to UAB earlier in the year, another game where they were held to single digits. But they'll certainly have to win out, a possibility, but they also need two losses from UAB down the stretch as well. It can't be overstated how last week was clearly La Tech's worst game of the season. It was their lowest scoring game in a decade. The defense allowed Miss State to score on every 1st half offensive possession. The good news is they're facing a much weaker opponent this week. 

Even as bad as Rice is, this spread is high enough that I'm going to abstain from making a play on the side. But the total really intrigues me. Rice only averages 19.6 PPG to begin with, but what's really interesting is that they are top 15 in the country in time of possession. Yet they are 123rd in scoring. Their defense is bad, giving up 38.5 PPG. But can La Tech take full advantage? The Bulldogs are averaging only 25.2 PPG and are remarkably inefficient themselves given they are also top 50 in the country in terms of TOP. I assume La Tech will play this one fairly conservatively given they head out on the road again next week (at Southern Miss). 10* Under Rice/La Tech

8* Puck Line Detroit (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking Detroit +1.5. It was a tough start to the season for this once proud franchise, but the Red Wings have started to turn things around with five wins in the last six games. Their only loss during that span came by a single goal. Here, they're matched up with a Carolina club that has been on an opposite trajectory in that they started the year strong, but have dropped five of six. They won Thursday night, 4-3 over Chicago, but have not won a game by more than one goal since 10/22 over ... Detroit. So this is a revenge game for the Red Wings to boot. 

Detroit is a young team, but they're starting to come together. Their last two wins have both come beyond regulation, but remember that getting to overtime is all we'd need for a winning ticket here. I was impressed by the way they came from behind to defeat the Rangers last night, winning 3-2 in OT after going into the final period trailing 2-0. Nearly one-third of the Red Wings' games this season have gone past regulation. Over the last five, they're averaging 3.6 goals per game, which is way up from how the started the year offensively. Another good sign is that the scoring is coming from multiple players. Carolina goaltenders have a terrible .873 save percentage at home this season. 

This will be the Hurricanes' first home game of November. It's a tough road trip that they are coming off of w/ games in Arizona, Vegas, St. Louis and Chicago. Ironically, the win over Chicago was the first time all season that the 'Canes had been outshot in a game all season. While Detroit may rank only 27th in the league in goals scored per game, Carolina isn't too far ahead at 26th. So this could very well be a low-scoring game, making the +1.5 all the more valuable. I just don't trust the Hurricanes' goaltending situation enough to think they'll be able to win this game by multiple goals. 8* Puck Line Detroit (+1.5)

8* Mississippi State (3:30 ET): Yep. I'm willing to step in front of the Alabama train here. This may very well go down as Nick Saban's best team EVER in Tuscaloosa (think about that for a second), but the situation this week is hardly favorable. The Crimson Tide are coming off the quintessential "statement" game, having shutout rival LSU 29-0 last week. This would be the proverbial letdown spot. Not that I expect Bama to lose mind you, but look for the game to be closer than the experts think. As is the case for most Bama opponents, Mississippi State will treat this as their biggest regular season game. The Bulldogs are starting to gain traction offensively (scored 45 pts last week) and have gone 6-3 ATS this year despite being an underdog only twice. Take the points. 

Here's a "dirty little secret." Mississippi State is actually giving up fewer points per game than Alabama this season. The Bulldogs allow just 12.3 PPG (2nd nationally) while Bama is allowing 14.1 (7th). MSU has not given up more than 19 pts in any game since a 28-7 loss at Kentucky back on September 22nd. Now they have been held to 7 pts or less in all three losses. But I don't expect that to be the case here.This will be the first time this year that Alabama is facing a defense allowing fewer points per game than they do. I expect a little bit of a good old fashioned SEC "slugfest" here. Mississippi State has lost 10 straight to Alabama, but it was a 7-point game LY in Starkville, also the week after the Crimson Tide faced LSU. 

A big key (at least to me) in handicapping this game is that while Alabama was busy facing LSU last week, Mississippi State enjoyed a virtual "bye" in a 45-3 thrashing of Louisiana Tech. Don't forget that Alabama still has the Iron Bowl left (after they face The Citadel next week). Mississippi State is 8-5 ATS as an underdog the L3 seasons w/ five outright wins. Again, I'm not expecting an outright win here, I just think the situation lends itself to taking a big number and I'd also like to point out that I have MSU ranked in the top 10 of my own personal power rankings. Look for them to keep this game within three touchdowns. 8* Mississippi State

10* Georgia Southern (1:00 ET): Though my own personal numbers indicated they should have been a much bigger favorite, I stayed away from Georgia Southern last Saturday, feeling that it was an absolutely horrible spot for them to lay points, on the road no less, coming off the huge win over Appalachian State. Turns out that feeling was correct as the Eagles went down at the hands of LA Monroe, 44-25, in what was easily their worst performance of the season. They found themselves down 27-3 before halftime and were outgained 573-216 for the game. But you have to keep in mind that the only other team to beat Ga Southern this year was #2 Clemson. In what shapes up as their most important game of the year, I'll call for the Eagles to bounce back in Statesboro. 

Troy is the only team w/o a conference loss in the Sun Belt. They are 5-0 SU, meaning they're up by one game over both Ga Southern and Appalachian State. Earlier in the year, the Trojans treated me to a nice upset over Nebraska, although we didn't know just how bad the Cornhuskers were yet and the Troy was actually held to only 243 total yards in that game. Still, the Trojans are 7-2 SU at this point in the season (same as Ga Southern) w/ their only losses coming to Boise State and Liberty. They have not yet faced Appalachian State as that game is the regular season finale, in Boone. Troy has hardly faced the most challenging schedule so far in conference play and wasn't all that impressive in a 26-16 win over Louisiana last week as seven-point home favorites. 

If Ga Southern were to win here, then they control their own destiny in the Sun Belt East Division and would have the tiebreaker over both Troy and Appalachian State. So you can see just how important this game truly is. A loss and the division likely goes to the winner of Troy-App State at the end of the year. The good news is this game being in Statesboro where the Eagles are a perfect 5-0 SU this year and outscoring opponents by nearly 23 PPG. They'd also beaten Troy six straight times prior to LY's 38-16 loss. But Ga Southern was not a good team last year (went just 2-10 SU). This year, they're back up to 7th in the country in rushing offense. They steamrolled a very good App State team on this field two weeks ago. They are the better team and should be favored here. 10* Georgia Southern

8* Duke (12:20 ET): Every season, for certain teams, there comes a time when one must reconcile expectations w/ reality. For North Carolina, that time has long since passed. Coming off a 3-9 SU season, the Tar Heels were widely expected to be a lock to improve in 2018. That simply has not happened. It was a bit of an auspicious offseason w/ HC Larry Fedora having questionable takes on CTE. There was the early season disruption of Hurricane Florence. But the bottom line is that this team simply hasn't been any good this year. I did take them back in Game 3, against Pitt, when they were off an unexpected bye due to the Hurricane (and, for UNC's sake, thank goodness that game vs. UCF was cancelled!). They won that game, but that's their ONLY win this year. With nothing left to play for, I expect these last couple weeks to go very poorly for the Tar Heels. 

Expect Duke to have no sympathy for their rival this weekend in Durham. The Blue Devils are coming off their first road win over Miami FL since 1976. They were outgained 411-290, yet still pulled the 20-12 upset as nine-point dogs. Though its unlikely that they'll win the ACC Coastal, I expect Duke to play well down the stretch. They'd dropped B2B games before beating Miami. Here, they'll be looking for their first home win since Sept 22. They'll also be looking for a fifth win in seven years over UNC. Though that's the case, they've won only 5 of the past 28 meetings. So there's still a sense of "payback" for the program. 

Expect the Duke offense to have little difficulty scoring on a UNC defense that is allowing 34.7 PPG. In five of its last six games, the Tar Heels have allowed at least 31 points. The Blue Devils are just two weeks removed from a 45-point, 600+ yard performance against Pitt. Last week, they were forced to play in the slop at Miami. Conditions should be a lot more conducive to a big offensive day here and that includes facing this porous UNC defense. The Tar Heels have been outscored by nearly 16 PPG on the road. My power rankings indicate a similar, if not slightly larger, margin of victory for the favorite here. 8* Duke

10* Boise State (10:15 ET): A home underdog on the blue turf? That's virtually unheard of. In fact, it has not happened in more than a decade! The last time they were a home dog to a conference opponent was 1999. So enter Fresno State, ranked #23 in the country and an incredible 18-3-2 ATS in 23 games under HC Jeff Tedford. This is a rubber match of sorts with the teams splitting a pair of meetings last season, each winning at home. Boise State's win turned out to be more important as it came in the Mt West Champ Game. They were also nine-point favorites in the 17-14 win. While FSU is - without question - improved this year, I do not believe they deserve to be the favorite here. Boise State is still outscoring its visitors by almost three touchdowns per game this year. 

Fresno State has been blowing out the competition. They are 5-0 SU/ATS in conference games w/ an average margin of victory of almost 30 PPG. In four of the five games, they've given up seven points or less! But it's been "competition" in name only as the Bulldogs haven't exactly been taking on the best that the Mountain West has to offer. They're coming off games against Nevada, Hawaii, Wyoming, New Mexico and UNLV. They also play San Jose State (at home) in the season finale. I don't have any of those teams rated higher than 86th in my power rankings. Remember that Fresno State lost to Minnesota earlier this year. The next two weeks, this game and San Diego State, will be the true referendum on their season. 

It won't be easy for Boise State to move the ball against this Fresno State defense, however, QB Brett Rypien will be the best that FSU has seen all season. Rypien has a 24-6 TD-INT ratio and the Broncos are 20th in FBS in total offense. Fresno State has lost nine straight trips here and I just can't get over Boise State as a home dog. They are 2-0 ATS as dogs in this, their 5th year under HC Bryan Harsin. Both times came last year and one resulted in an outright upset of San Diego State. The Broncos have a pretty good defense as well, having allowed 20 pts or fewer five times. As impressive as Fresno State has been so far, it's come at the expense of a pretty weak schedule. This is - easily - their toughest test to date. 10* Boise State

8* Over Nets/Nuggets (9:05 ET): Denver is back home, off just its second loss of the season. It was a shockingly low-scoring game, even w/ Memphis being involved, as they fell 89-87 Wednesday night. As you can tell from that final score, it was not a good shooting night, but especially for Denver as they finished w/ a 39.0 FG%. That was their lowest percentage for any game since the season opener and it was obviously their lowest scoring game to date. But upon this return home, we should see an automatic increase in scoring from their side as they average 113 PPG on 47% shooting. It also helps that the team they're facing tonight isn't exactly known as a defensive stalwart. Take the Over. 

Now Brooklyn is off B2B strong defensive performances, which is why they won both games. They held Philadelphia to just 97 points and then Phoenix to only 82 on 34.6% shooting. But the latter performance in particular will be almost impossible to duplicate as it came against such a bad team. In fact, the their two best defensive performances of the season came against possibly the two worst teams in the league (Cleveland, Phoenix). This opponent is probably a top five team in the league. The Nets are still allowing over 108 PPG for the year while scoring over 109 per game themselves. They have scored 120 or more in two of the past four games. 

This will actually be the first time in over a year that these teams have played as both meetings last year came quite early in the season. Interestingly enough, despite the "explosion" of scoring we've seen in the NBA this year, the O/U lines for LY's games were far higher than where this one is set at. Denver scored only 17 points in the 4Q vs. Memphis and Nikola Jokic took just ONE shot the entire game. Neither of those things will happen again here, I assure you. It's pretty surprising that the Nuggets are near the bottom of the league in number of possessions per game, but that shouldn't continue. The Over is 6-2 for Brooklyn the L3 seasons after holding their previous opponent under 90 points. The Over is 46-24 for Denver when facing a team that both scores and allows more than 106 PPG. 8* Over Nets/Nuggets

10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Philadelphia finally won a road game, doing so Wednesday at Indiana, 100-94 as a 2.5-pt dog. Now they return home where they've yet to taste defeat (6-0 straight up). Two of those six wins have been by two points or less, however, one of them against Charlotte back on October 27th. It was a 105-103 final, a game where neither side had a lead of more than six points the entire second half. Therefore, taking the points in this rematch would seem prudent, especially considering the Hornets have the better YTD point differential (6th best in NBA!) and easily covered the last time.

Since losing to the 76ers, the Hornets have won three of four. The only loss was to Oklahoma City by four points. All three wins came by double digits. Though Kemba Walker is currently 2nd in the league in scoring at 28.1 PPG, this is a deep Charlotte team. Seven players were in double figures in a 32-point win over Cleveland and then five were in Tuesday's win over Atlanta. You may recall that I faded the Hornets in that spot vs. Atlanta (and came away w/ a half-point cover!), but it's important to note they were also double digit favorites. Here, they are underdogs, a role that has seen them go 3-1 ATS this season. Of the team's five losses, four have been by four points or less.

Going back to last season, Philly has taken the last five meetings from Charlotte. They swept the season series last year, also going 4-0 ATS, but all four games were contested after March 1st when the Hornets were pretty much out of contention. Charlotte missed 26 of 35 three-pointers in the last meeting, which probably won't happen again here considering the team is shooting a much more reasonable 36.5% from behind the arc for the season. Philadelphia's offensive production has been far more inconsistent and they've averaged just 102 PPG the L3 contests. Philly is a top five team in defensive efficiency, but Charlotte is top five in offensive efficiency. This could then boil down to the fact Charlotte is 11th in defensive efficiency while Philadelphia is 20th offensively. 10* Charlotte

8* UL Lafayette (7:00 ET): Tennessee is a top 10 team playing at home, but they're laying too many points here. Let's not put a ton of stock into the Vols' 81-46 over non-board team Lenoir-Rhyne either. The Bears did not have a single starter w/ more than one made field goal and they barely shot 20% from the field. Clearly, they were not a formidable opponent. But I believe the Ragin Cajuns can be as they too dominated a lesser opponent in their opener, scoring 121 points. Take the points. 

Louisiana shot a ridiculous 67.1% from the field en route to scoring 121 pts on the University of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Obviously, as is the case for UT, things will be nowhere near that easy tonight. But with six players scoring in double figures in the opener, the Ragin Cajuns certainly are capable of making a "run at it" this evening. This team shot 58.3% from three-point range in the opener. Am I a little concerned about the defense? Sure. But ULL can score enough to hang within a huge number. They won 27 games last season. This was a top 15 team nationally in scoring too.

Tennessee has a lot of hype, which may be working against it right now. I think there could be some defensive regression this year in spite of what we saw in the opener and all the talent back. Consider that over the last two seasons, the Vols are just 1-4 ATS when laying more than 12.5 points at home. They have bigger games they might be looking ahead to on the docket. This is the highest preseason ranking in school history. Two guards, Jalen Johnson and Lamonte Turner, are battling injuries and could be limited here. 8* UL Lafayette 

10* Under Panthers/Steelers (8:15 ET): Finally, a good Thursday night game! Carolina has won three in a row and five out of six to get to 6-2 SU on the year. Pittsburgh has won and covered four straight to get to 5-2-1 SU. If you're a regular client of mine, then you might recall I had the Over on Carolina's game last week vs. Tampa Bay. That game went Over (a high total) by the third quarter. But it was also at home where the team is a perfect 5-0 SU and averaging 31.6 points per game. On the road, the Panthers have a losing record (1-2 SU) and are averaging just 20.7 PPG. So I don't expect an offensive repeat from them this week in Pittsburgh where they'll find a Steelers team that has not allowed more than 21 points in any game during its own win streak. Take the Under. 

Carolina has one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league. They've run the ball 31 or more times in five games. Not surprisingly, two of the three exceptions were losses. The problem w/ such an approach here is that Pittsburgh has not allowed 100 yds rushing since Week 2. They've allowed less than 75 yds rushing in five of the past six games. The result of that is the Steelers now rank 6th in the league at stopping the run. Carolina would face even more problems if it's true C Ryan Kalil can't go. This being a short week obviously makes it less likely than Kalil will play. 

The Steelers will also be up against a top 10 rush defense and obviously still don't have Le'Veon Bell. Carolina has allowed 101 yds rushing or less in all but two games. Ben Roethlisberger and company have averaged 31.25 PPG during the four-game win streak, but I would be shocked if they hit that benchmark here. They scored just 23 pts last week, granted against Baltimore, but Carolina scored 36 pts on that same defense the week prior. For the record, Pittsburgh is 17-8 Under when off an ATS win. Note that prior to last week, there had not been a total above 50 points for any Carolina game this season. 10* Under Panthers/Steelers

8* Evansville (8:00 ET): Both of these teams are in rebuild mode. Illinois is in the second year of their rebuild under HC Brad Underwood while Evansville is set to embark on its own, under 1st year HC Walter McCarty (yes, the former Kentucky standout). The situation almost begs for you to take the points as scoring should be at a premium in this game where both teams are trying to find their way. Both teams are expected to finish near the bottom of their respective conferences. Illinois, the favorite, allowed 73.8 PPG last season. Take the points.

The Illini bring back only four players from last season, one of them being talented guard Trent Frazier. He's pretty much the only holdover worth mentioning as the other key player figures to be highly touted freshman Ayo Dosunmu. Overall, Underwood will have SIX freshman playing for him this season, so this is a really young Illinois team. Such a young team could be likely to overlook an opponent like Evansville and is not a good candidate to lay points with. In the games that they were favored to win last season, the Illini only won by an average of 8.1 points per game. 

Evansville is going to have to deal w/ a press, but I feel the 1st game of the season allows you adequate time to prepare for that. Like Illinois, there is a lot of roster turnover here for the Purple Aces. It's top three scorers from last year are all gone and the three most talented players on the roster are all ineligible right now. That's hardly a good sign, but this team can play defense and hopefully that continues under McCarty. Lsat season, the Purple Aces ranked 11th in the country, giving up just 63.9 PPG. If they can keep Illinois close to that number, then they should cover w/ ease tonight. 8* Evansville

8* Wake Forest (7:30 ET): I don't believe for a second that North Carolina State is the 14th best team in the country entering this weekend. In fact, I don't even count the Wolfpack among my top 40 teams in the country! That rationale is the basis for this Thursday night ACC play as Wake Forest comes calling to Raleigh. Now I'm not particularly high on the Demon Deacons either. But this is a generous pointspread for a team that generally competes hard for HC Dave Clawson. NC State is likely still reveling in last week's 47-28 beatdown of Florida State, which isn't all that impressive (the Seminoles are BAD), but still meant a lot to the program. Wake is only 1-5 ATS as a dog TY, but had previously gone 11-2 in that role. They also beat NC State last year, 30-24 in Winston-Salem.

I have to say that I'm a bit surprised to see NC State at 6-2 on the year. Granted, the West Virginia game getting cancelled (Hurricane Florence) probably helped considering that would have been a likely loss to the Mountaineers. My regulars will recall the Wolfpack were an easy fade (for me) when they squared off against #2 Clemson in a battle of unbeatens. The market "tipped its hand" by installing NC State as large underdogs in that one (closed +18.5), but it still wasn't enough in an embarrassing 41-7 loss. Now, this isn't Clemson that they're facing this week. But be aware that last week was the team's first win by more than 17 points since beating a terrible Georgia State team 41-7 back in Week 2. This will be their 1st time as DD chalk since that game. 

NC State came in ranked (#25) for LY's meeting w/ Wake as well. The upset marked the third straight year the Demon Deacons beat a ranked team. They're 0-3 SU in such situations in 2018 and this is probably their last time facing a Top 25 team. They also need to win two of the final three games in order to be bowl eligible. Clawson is faced w/ a QB dilemma here as starter Sam Hartman is out for the rest of the regular season w/ a leg injury. So it will either be Kendall Hinton (who has previous starting experience) or redshirt soph Jamie Newman under center for this game. Maybe that doesn't sound ideal, but recall that the Demon Deacons were w/o their best offensive player (WR Greg Dortsch) when they upset the Wolfpack. I just don't like the idea of laying so many points w/ NC State. 8* Wake Forest

8* Puck Line Vancouver (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Canucks +1.5. Despite losing in a shootout Tuesday night, Vancouver remains a pleasant surprise in this league. They are tied for 1st in the Pacific w/ 19 points and would be coming into this game on a four-game win streak had they not blown a 2-0 lead to Detroit. That's one more point than tonight's opponent, Boston, has and the Canucks also beat the Bruins back on October 20th, 2-1. I'll call for them to do no worse than a one-goal loss here. 

Vancouver had been a bit of a scoring machine recently, totaling 16 goals in a three-game win streak over Minnesota, Chicago and Colorado. All those games were at home. They began what will be a 6-game swing out East, Tuesday in Detroit, and it looked as if the scoring barrage would continue as they led 2-0 midway through the second period. But it was not to be. They allowed the Red Wings to answer w/ two of their own and then lost in a shootout. It will be tough cracking a Bruins team that is 2nd in the league in goals allowed. But the Canucks were able to win a low-scoring game at home and there's still plenty to be excited about with this team, namely rookie Elias Petterson and his 10 goals. 

Over its last four games, Boston has been shutout twice and won two games by a goal apiece. So the Puck Line seems like it could be a very useful tool tonight. Half of the Bruins' last eight contests have been decided by one goal, including the last one where they beat Dallas 2-1 in OT. They gave up a short-handed goal early in that contest, but were able to answer on a later power play w/ a goal of their own. Interesting that Boston is only 24th in goals per game despite having the 5th highest power play percentage in the league. That tells me that this is a team struggling to score when at even strength. I also don't think there's anyway that goalie Jaroslav Halak, who is likely to get the start tonight, can maintain his current hot streak (.962 save percentage L4 games). 8* Puck Line Vancouver (+1.5)

10* Over Sixers/Pacers (8:05 ET): In the Eastern Conference right now, you obviously have two very hot teams in Toronto and Milwaukee. Boston will obviously be a contender for the top spot as well. Then there are these two teams, probably the only other potential candidates for a top four spot. Philadelphia is having some major problems on the road however, as they're 0-5 SU away from home after taking a 25-point loss to Brooklyn in their last game. Indiana is also off a loss, by just four points at home, to Houston. But what I'm focused on here is the poor offensive performance each team had in their previous games. I look for those to be rectified this evening and for this nationally televised affair to go Over the total. 

The Sixers were just dreadful Sunday in Brooklyn, turning it over 28 times (a league-high for the season) and shooting just 20% from three-point range. There's virtually no way we see anything close to a duplication of those numbers tonight. Note it was Philly's second lowest scoring game of the season, the benchmark still being the season opener in Boston. They've scored at least 105 pts in every other game. You would have to go all the way back to October 23rd to find the ONLY time the Sixers have shot 50% in a game this seaosn. But you also have to factor in just how bad this team has been defensively on the road. Earlier I mentioned that they are still winless (0-5 SU) away from home. Well, a big reason for that is they are giving up 122.4 PPG in those five losses. 

Indiana has gone Under in five straight games and was held under 100 pts for just the third time this season its last time out. Certainly, few would have expected a final score of 98-94 for a matchup with Houston. The Pacers have been good defensively (7th in efficiency), especially at home where they are giving up just 99.4 PPG. But I look for a bit of different story to unfold tonight, obviously. Indiana missed 10 FT's in the four-point loss to Houston Monday. This was one of the league's better FT shooting teams last year, so they definitely "left some points" at the line. In their last five games, the Pacers are averaging only 100.6 PPG, but I look for that number to go way up after tonight's matchup. 10* Over Sixers/Pacers 

8* Toledo (8:00 ET): Last week, I was on Toledo while also playing against Northern Illinois, so I suppose I have a bit of a built-in "predilection" towards the Rockets here. But this play is certainly based on more than just the results of one week. Toledo appears to be peaking at the right time as they ended October w/ B2B blowout wins over Western Michigan and Ball State coming by a combined 59 points. As per usual, this matchup w/ NIU is likely to determine the MAC West Champion. The Huskies lead the division as they are the only MAC team - besides Buffalo - w/o a conference loss. But they've been living dangerously much of this season, winning close and not scoring a ton of points. I believe Toledo is set to come into DeKalb and pull the upset. 

The Toledo offense definitely seems to be back on track. They've scored 96 points and gone over 1,000 total yards the L2 games and run for at least 200 yards in four of the last five contests. Despite five turnovers LW (also had five takeaways), they had little difficulty vs. Ball State, jumping out to a 21-0 halftime lead. As mentioned in last week's analysis, 2018 is the 1st time in eight years that the Rockets suffered four losses in their first eight games. They've produced a winning ATS record seven of the last eight years, but currently stand at just 4-5 vs. the number. The QB carousel has not mattered as this offense is now averaging over 40 PPG and 6.0 yards per play. Eli Peters will get the start at QB Wednesday, his 3rd of '18. He has thrown for nearly 1,000 yds on the season. 

Northern Illinois does not have an offense that can compare to Toledo's. In fact, the Huskies had not topped 26 pts in a game prior to LW's 36-26 win at Akron. Note that was a three-point game until NIU had a key "pick-six" in the 4Q. The offense is averaging less than 20 PPG, so laying points w/ them is less than ideal. The Huskies have actually been held to seven points or less in three of their nine games! All but one win this year (last week!) has been by one score w/ three coming by a FG or less. In the win over Ohio three weeks ago, the Huskies were able to rally from a double digit deficit. Then came the ugliest of victories, 7-6 over BYU, where they barely gained 200 yards total offense. I believe Toledo is the better team here and thus I'll take the points. 8* Toledo

10* Miami OH (7:00 ET): This is a rivalry game. "The Battle of the Bricks" takes place every year between Ohio and Miami, two schools separated by 189 miles (on opposite sides of Columbus). This is the 95th all-time meeting and Ohio has had the edge under HC Frank Solich, going 11-2 SU w/ five consecutive victories. There have been some real "lean" years for Miami during that time, but there's no reason this year's team shouldn't compete, if not finally break the losing skid. The RedHawks are also in a situation where they must win out to become bowl eligible. The last two years have been relatively disappointing in Oxford, but a win over their rival would go a long way in changing that. This spread seems too heavily influenced by last week's results. Take the points. 

In 2016, Miami became the 1st team in NCAA history to open 0-6 and then win its final six regular season games. After that, there was some real optimism surrounding the program after it had made just one postseason appearance (2010) since the Ben Roethlisberger era. But the last two years have been disappointing. They finished just 5-7 SU a year ago and enter this game 3-6 SU after a loss to MAC East leader Buffalo last week. However, two of the RedHawks' last three losses have been by one point and LW's game was back & forth, tied 42-42 entering the 4Q. My view is that this team is better than its record. They have a very capable QB in Gus Ragland, who threw for 313 yards last week on 20 of 35 passing.

Ohio controls its own destiny in the MAC East w/ a potentially huge first place showdown looming next week against Buffalo. Though this is a rivalry game, I can see the Bobcats looking past it. There is no doubt in my mind that this game would have been closer to a pick 'em if not for Ohio absolutely destroying Western Michigan last week (in Kalamazoo!) 59-14. That game saw the Bobcats take an astonishing 45-0 halftime lead. Note that they were +6 in turnover differential, had three scoring drives of less than 20 yards plus a blocked punt returned for touchdown. I know Ohio has covered four straight and averaged 53.3 PPG in the last three. But they were just 1-3 SU away from Athens prior to last week and their rival will be more than ready, having had two extra days to prepare. 10* Miami OH 

8* Western Carolina (7:00 ET): Wright State should not be laying this many points, in my opinion. They did win 25 games and the Horizon League last season, but this year's squad lost two of that team's key players - Grant Benzinger and Justin Mitchell - both of whom were double digit scorers. Now it has been B2B 20+ win seasons for the Raiders under HC Scott Nagy and my projections for this year have them right line for that win total again this year. But this is a big number to lay for a team that was not a double-digit favorite all that often last year. Take the points. 

Western Carolina finished sixth in the SoCon last season w/ a sub-.500 record and was 13-19 SU overall. It was a poor finish to the regular season as the lost seven of their final 10 games, then were one and done in the Conference Tournament. For this year, the Catamounts have a new head coach (Mark Prosser), though he will need a find a way to replace lost production from the top two scorers from LY both graduating. While it may seem like Western Carolina has no chance here, don't be surprised to see them be a better shooting team than they were last year (were 327th in FG%).

It may seem odd that I'm calling for improved offense against a Wright State team that held its opponents under 60 PPG last year. But with this promising to be a pretty low-scoring game overall, taking the points is definitely the way to go. Wright State failed to score more than 65 points in almost a third of its games last season. Look for the underdog to find a way to stay under the big number. 8* Western Carolina

10* Cal Santa Barbara (10:00 ET): Wyoming traditionally has one of the top homecourt edges in the sport (high elevation!), but I don't think that alone wil be able to carry them against what is a gutty underdog. Truthfully, I'm not convinced that the better team isn't the one getting points here. Under the guidance of a 1st year HC (Joe Pasternack), UCSB completed the second best single-season turnaround in D-I history last year, going from 6 to 23 wins. They were denied a postseason berth as they lost in the Big West Tourney semis, but did go 11-4 ATS on the road last season. Wyoming was a terrible defensive team LY and also lost four of its five top scorers. Take the points. 

UCSB also must deal with some key departures as they have only one starter back from last year's turnaround team. Max Heidigger (19.1 PPG) is the one key holdover. But unlike Wyoming, the Gauchos appear to be well-positioned to replace that departed talent. They had the best recruiting class in the Big West plus added a few key transfers, Devearl Ramsey from Nevada, JaQuori McLaughin from Oregon State and Ar'mond Davis from Alabama. Ramsey is a speedy point guard while the other two will definitely help the Gauchos' shooting from long-range.

Wyoming is off B2B 20+ win seasons. They also won 10 conference (Mt West) games LY, just the 2nd time in 16 years they'd done that. But as mentioned above, four of the top five scorers are gone and that's not good news for a team that didn't really shoot the ball all that well anyway. Even worse is the team's defensive outlook. Last year, the Cowboys ranked a horrendous 317th in scoring, allowing 78.7 PPG. That makes them a dicey proposition to lay points with, and they had a losing ATS record at home last year anyway. 10* Cal Santa Barbara

8* South Alabama (9:00 ET): Auburn will start the season ranked #11 as most consider them the third-best team in the SEC, behind Tennessee and, of course, Kentucky. The Tigers were a 4-seed in LY's NCAA Tournament, but bowed out in embarrassing fashion in the Round of 32, losing by 31 to Clemson. They were not a healthy team come Tourney time and a couple of key offseason departures have me a little "lukewarm" on them to start the year, even though they're still expected to score plenty of points here in 2018-19. But this is a big number to lay in the first game and I'll take the points.

South Alabama has a new HC, Richie Riley, who comes over from Nicholls State. Riley, a former assistant at both UAB and Clemson, led Nicholls State to the regular season championship in the Southland. After five straight losing seasons, the Jaguars should be significantly improved this season and be a player in the Sun Belt. They return the majority of LY's roster, including their top five scorers. Riley inherits a team that was in the top 15 in the country in forcing turnovers, doing so on 22.4% of opponents' possessions. The Jaguars will have to improve their shooting, both from three-point rang and the free throw line. They should do that. 

You may have forgotten that Auburn opened last season by winning 16 of its first 17 games. At one point, people were buying Bruce Pearl's team as a possible #1 seed (I did not). The key to their eventual downfall was a season-ending injury to Anfernee McLemore. He is back, but Mustapha Heron (transferred to St. John's) is not, nor is LY's leading rebounder Desean Murray (transferred to Western Kentucky). Also, Danjel Purify is ineligible for the season's first nine games due to the scandal that has engulfed the sport. Austin Wiley, like Purify, was ineligible LY due to the scandal. He had actually been cleared, but is now doubtful for the season opener due to a foot injury. I believe we're not going to see the Tigers score the way they did last season, at least initially. 8* South Alabama

10* Over Canucks/Red Wings (7:35 ET): Two bad teams here, though both have recently shown signs of busting out of the doldrums. In the case of Vancouver, they've won three straight, including a 7-6 win at home over Colorado on Friday. Detroit also enjoyed a three-game win streak, that was until they ran into Edmonton on Saturday and lost 4-3. Both teams have gone Over in each of their L3 games and rank in the bottom 10 in the league in goals allowed. Therefore, I'm expecting another high-scoring affair this evening in the Motor City. Take the Over. 

All of Vancouver's last seven games have seen no fewer than five total goals scored. The last one was obviously the highest scoring of the bunch as they outlasted the Avs in overtime, a game which saw 13 total goals scored. There were seven goals scored in the second period alone. It was the Canucks' third straight game scoring four or more goals as rookie Elias Pettersson (NHL's Rookie of the Month) continues to lead the way. Pettersson had five points against Colorado (2 goals, 3 assists), including the tying goal that sent the game into OT. Vancouver is 4-1 Over this year after scoring 4+ goals in its previous game.

Detroit ranks 27th in the league in goals allowed. They started the year w/ just one win in the first 10 games. But offense keyed a brief turnaround w/ the team scoring 4 or more goals in three consecutive victories. Then came the 4-3 loss to Edmonton on Saturday. The Red Wings gave up 42 shots on goal in that one, which is obviously a lot. I'm not too confident in the goaltending situation on either side as Vancouver's Jacob Markstrom comes in w/ an .883 save percentage on the road and Detroit's Jimmy Howard has struggled all season. 10* Over Canucks/Red Wings

10* Atlanta (7:05 ET): On paper, Charlotte probably could not have asked for an easier set of back to back games than what they're getting here. After easily dispatching of Cleveland Sunday night (won by 32!), they'll get Atlanta tonight, also at home. The Hornets are 5-5 SU on the season, but actually own the East's third best point differential at +7.6 points per game. They are an impressive 4th in offensive efficiency. However, I don't see things going quite as easy tonight as they did Saturday vs. Cleveland when seven Hornets finished in double figures, including five off the bench. I'll take the big number in this one. 

Coming into the year, most had Atlanta finishing at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. This is definitely a rebuilding project, but the team has won three games, including its last one. Saturday night, they upset Miami (at home) by a score of 123-118 (as 5.5 pt dogs). Rookie Trae Young led the way w/ 24 points and a career-best 15 assists. The team made 13 three-pointers and led by as many as 15 in the second half. This will be among the biggest numbers that the Hawks have gotten so far and it's one worth grabbing. 

Now the Hornets have largely controlled this Southeast Division rivalry, winning and covering seven of the past eight meetings, including all four here in Charlotte. But they are usually not this large of a favorite. The Hornets are 2 for 2 as double digit chalk so far this year, easily beating both Chicago and Cleveland. But I see a team prone to a letdown in this spot, especially w/ a more marquee battle (at Philadelphia Friday night) looming on the horizon. Note that Charlotte is 2-5 ATS after scoring 125+ points in their previous game. 10* Atlanta 

10* Over Titans/Cowboys (8:15 ET): We've got a really low total here on MNF, probably one of the lowest for any games this NFL season. Judging by the amount of scoring we've seen league-wide in 2018, I think it's far too risky to bet this game Under. Too much can happen in a game, whether it be a defensive or special teams touchdown. Both Tennessee and Dallas are off their bye weeks, so both offenses have had plenty of time to gameplan here. The "hype" for this game will surround WR Amari Cooper making his Cowboys debut (recently traded from the Raiders). While I don't think Cooper's impact will be substantial, his presence can only help a Dallas receiving corps - that on paper - was among the very worst in the league. Meanwhile, a Titans' offense averaging only 15.1 PPG (30th) has to start improving, right? Take the Over.

Even though Dallas is thought to be pretty deficient through the air, I believe this Tennessee defense can be had. Two weeks ago against the Chargers, the Titans surrendered pass plays of 75 and 55 yards. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott, not really thought of as a great downfield thrower, does have seven pass plays of 20+ yards already this season. Cooper will draw attention from the Titans' secondary, potentially opening up chances for the other Cowboys' receivers to make plays. You then, of course, have the Dallas run game w/ Ezekiel Elliott. Though held in check on the ground two weeks ago at Washington, the Cowboys have rushed for an average of 176 YPG in their three home games, at 5.2 yards per carry. 

The Titans have had two horrid offensive games this year, but those came against two of the better defenses in the league, Jacksonville and Baltimore. While this team has yet to score more than 20 points in regulation this season, I give them an excellent shot at doing so tonight. They did have nearly 400 total yds against the Chargers in London w/ a 23-14 edge in first downs. My one concern from that game, however, was the defense allowing 7.8 yards per play. With the 30th scoring offense, but 3rd best scoring defense, Titans' games are pretty easily the lowest scoring - on average - in the league at just 33.2 PPG. But I'll call for this one to "sneak" Over as I feel the number is just too low. 10* Over Titans/Cowboys

10* Indiana (7:05 ET): The Pacers were my *10* Game of the Week on Saturday and despite being in the second game of a back to back, they rallied to beat Boston on Victor Oladipo's jumper w/ just a few seconds remaining. I thought they were a "steal" as a home dog in that matchup and here that's the case as well against a Rockets team that simply is not playing very well in the early going. Right now, Indiana is one of only six teams in the league with a win percentage of .700 or higher and outscoring its opponents by five or more points per game. I think they should be favored by more here and I'll take them for a second straight time at home at what looks to be an excellent value. 

Houston, who won 65 regular season games a year ago, was a massive disappointment in opening the season 1-5. They've won B2B road games, but those came against Brooklyn and Chicago and neither were easy despite both victories coming by eight points. They actually trailed at the half in both games. With Chris Paul and James Harden each missing multiple games, it would be easy to pin the Rockets' problems on that. But I believe the team's issues run a bit deeper. They've already suffered four double digit losses, all at home no less. They're 3-1 SU on the road, but won't be able to overwhelm Indiana in a quarter like they did to both Brooklyn and Chicago. With Eric Gordon still out, Rockets' HC Mike D'Antoni has had to use five different starting lineups in eight games. 

Indiana's three-game win streak has been by a total of nine points, so they're by no means blowing teams out recently. But they were earlier on in the season w/ their first four wins all coming by double digits. Compare that to a Houston team that has yet to win any game by double digits. The Rockets' scoring is way down this year (106.2 PPG) due them shooting just 42.3% from the floor. At the same time, the defense has gotten way worse, though numbers have slightly improved because of the last two games. But right now, Indiana is simply the better team here and I'll take them at home. 10* Indiana

8* Washington (7:05 ET): Even though they've lost back to back games (and 3 of their last 4), I still think there's plenty of reason to like the Stanley Cup Champs tonight on home ice. First off, it's hard for me to see them dropping two straight at home. After rallying back from an early 2-0 hole, they fell to Dallas in overtime on Saturday. But even w/ that setback - and overall slow start to the season - the Capitals are still leading the league in scoring and have the top power play. Furthermore, they also have revenge on their minds tonight for a 4-1 loss up in Edmonton last week. My money is on the Caps bouncing back here. 

The Oilers have won 5 of 6, including two straight. They've turned in B2B four-goal efforts, but those came against Chicago and Detroit, two of the worst teams in the league. While they did just beat the Capitals at home, doing so on the road will prove a lot more challenging. Edmonton's strong start to the year (8-4-1 through 13 games) is a little head-scratching when you look at the statistics, all of which are fairly mediocre. Six of their last nine games were at home, though they won all three on the road. But the fact that the Oilers rank 26th in penalty killing should come back to bite them facing the league's top power play. 

Shots were actually dead even in the first meeting between the teams (32 apiece), but a key was Washington getting only one PP opportunity and failing to convert. The Capitals have four of the league's top seven players in PP points w/ Evgeny Kuznetsov leading the league w/ five goals. Again, they should have the edge here against a weak Edmonton PK unit. The Caps are also averaging 4.33 goals per game at home, so it's really going to be difficult for the Oilers to hold them to one goal again. All four goals Washington allowed in the loss to Dallas Saturday were off turnovers, which is an easy problem to correct. The Oilers have won five straight road games, but I see that streak coming to an end tonight. 8* Washington

8* Seattle (4:05 ET): This is a good matchup of two teams that appear to be playoff caliber. Seattle won big for me last week as my *10* Game of the Week, going into Detroit and winning outright (were three point dogs) 28-14. After an 0-2 start, the Seahawks have won four of five and what's most impressive about that is only one of their last four games was played here at Century Link Field. Ironically, that happens to be the last loss they suffered, but it was by only two against the still unbeaten Rams. So much for the breakup of the "Legion of Boom" as this defense is giving up just 18.7 points and 327.3 yards per game, both top five marks in the league. QB Russell Wilson continues to make plays for an offense averaging 28.3 PPG the last three weeks. 

LA is 5-2. Their only losses have been to the Chiefs and Rams. Somewhat uncharacteristic, but the Chargers are 2-0 in games decided by three points or less. (For years, they have had one of the worst records in close games). But while there's no shame in losing to teams like the Chiefs and Rams, let's take a look at those five teams the Chargers have defeated: Buffalo, San Francisco, Oakland, Cleveland and Tennessee. Those are all teams with losing records and four of them (sans Tennessee) just might be bottom five teams in the league. They barely survived Tennessee over in London two weeks ago, needing to stop a 2-pt conversion attempt on the game's final play (won 20-19). Despite being off a bye, RB Melvin Gordon is questionable to play this week.

Seattle enjoys one of the league's strongest homefield advantages, so I'm surprised they're not favored here. Through the years, it's been exceedingly rare to get the Seahawks laying three points or less at home. They were underdogs to the Rams, easily covering the spread there. Their only other home game was a 24-13 win over Dallas. The offense has run for 155+ yards in four straight games. The Chargers' run defense did allow 164 yards on 33 carries to the Titans, so they might be susceptible. The Chargers have not beaten a good team yet this year, so I give the Seahawks a significant edge at home. 8* Seattle

8* Under Kings/Bucks (3:30 ET): I almost had to do a "double take" when I looked at the matchup, but these teams have gone Over in the L11 meetings against one another. But that trend comes w/ a pretty important caveat as none of those eleven O/U lines have been higher than 213.5 points. A lot has changed - for both teams - in the last year, but we were looking at a pair of sub-200 pt totals for the two 2017-18 meetings. Here, we've got one of the highest totals set so far this season and I think it provides an excellent opportunity to play the Under. Scoring in Sacramento games has been pretty crazy this season, but it's due to subside some moving forward. 

Kings' games are averaging an insane 236.4 PPG so far, but it would seem that number can only come DOWN. Perhaps more shocking is the fact the team has won and covered five straight games. Win streaks such as this are quite uncommon in California's capital city. Note that I don't expect the Kings to come anywhere close to the 146 points they scored Thursday in Atlanta. They shot 54.1% for the game, a percentage that will be difficult to match. Something akin to the 46-pt third quarter they delivered against the Hawks is almost a lock not to be repeated as Sacramento had been averaging "just" 110.8 PPG during the first four wins of the current streak. They had that through three quarters Thursday. It's an offensive performance that's simply unlikely to be repeated. 

Meanwhile, the Bucks are due for some defensive improvement after suffering their 1st loss of the year Thursday in Boston. They allowed the Celtics to make 24 three-pointers, a stunning departure from the kind of defense we'd seen Mike Budenholzer's team play during its 7-0 SU start. They still rank second in the league in defensive 3-point percentage (31.5%) as well as overall defensive efficiency. Here at home, Milwaukee is limiting teams to 40% shooting overall, including just 27% from three-point range. This being an afternoon game, don't be surprised by a somewhat "sleepy" start from both teams offensively (even though we just set the clocks back!). 8* Under Kings/Bucks

10* Baltimore (1:00 ET): Pittsburgh won big for me last week, as expected, beating Cleveland 33-18 as 8-pt favorites. I thought it was an ideal spot to play the Steelers as they were coming off a bye, at home, and the Browns had just played their fourth overtime game of the season. Plus, they'd actually drastically outplayed Cleveland in a tie earlier in the season. As it turns out, the Browns wound up firing BOTH their head coach and offensive coordinator after the game. This week is a far less ideal spot for the Black & Gold as they head to Baltimore to face the rival Ravens. Baltimore has dropped B2B games to fall to 4-4 SU, but they did win in Pittsburgh earlier in the year. I took the Ravens in that first meeting as they rolled to a 26-14 win and cover. I expect the rematch to go pretty similarly. 

After that win in Pittsburgh, the Ravens looked like one of the best teams in the AFC as they were 3-1. But they've since dropped three of four, two of the losses coming in brutal fashion. One was in overtime at Cleveland, a 12-9 final. The other was at home vs. New Orleans where usually sure-footed kicker Justin Tucker missed what would have been the game-tying XP in the final minute of regulation. Last week was the team's weakest effort of the year as they went down in Carolina 36-21. Being -3 in turnovers did them no favors there. The Ravens defense continues to lead the league in scoring (17.1 PPG allowed) and is the ONLY one in the league allowing fewer than 300 YPG. That will come in quite handy this week for their biggest game of the year. 

The Ravens haven't lost B2B games very often under HC John Harbaugh. They did so twice last year, but both times they came back w/ a double digit victory the next game. Only having to lay a short number w/ them at home here is quite ideal as they're 5-2 SU and ATS the L7 times as a home favorite of three points or less. They really dominated that first meeting in Pittsburgh, outgaining the Steelers 451-284 w/ a 24-14 edge in first downs. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger fractured his index finger last week and while he's going to be on the field, don't think it won't negatively impact his play. 10* Baltimore

8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): The Browns were my top go against last week as I was on the Steelers. I thought it was a horrible spot for the Browns as Pittsburgh was off a bye and they were off their fourth OT game of the year w/ the defense having played a season-high 95 snaps. The Browns couldn't beat the Steelers at home in Week 1 despite a torrential downpour and being +5 in turnovers. Turns out, I was right. Cleveland lost 33-18 (scored a garbage-time TD) and subsequently fired its head coach (Hue Jackson) and OC (Todd Haley). DC Gregg Williams now takes over as the interim, trying desperately to provide a spark for a team that has lost three in a row. The Browns have an exciting rookie QB in Baker Mayfield, but let's face it: this has been the most miserable franchise in the entire NFL for two decades.

Meanwhile, things couldn't be any more different for Kansas City. They are one of top teams in the league, led by QB Patrick Mahomes, who has thrown 4 TD passes in three straight games. The Chiefs lead the league in offense, averaging 36.2 points per game. There has been only one game where they didn't score at least 30 points and their only loss was by a field goal at New England. But if there is one albatross, it's a defense that is permitting 432.4 yards per game. Despite that great offense, the Chiefs have actually been outgained on the year as the defense ranks 31st. They've been outgained in six of eight games overall!

Cleveland has struggled to close games, but they've lost only twice by more than a field goal, one of those last week. The Browns' defense has been quite opportunistic, leading the league w/ 22 forced turnovers. The pass defense has been one of the best in the league, particularly at home where visiting QB's are posting the lowest QBR in the league. Really, the team should have a better record than 2-5-1. I mentioned last week that it looked as if Mayfield had been regressing, well now he's freed from the Jackson-Haley power struggle. This is simply too many points for KC to lay on the road as I expect the Browns to play inspired after the coaching change. 8* Cleveland

10* Over Bucs/Panthers (1:00 ET): Tampa Bay has gone Over in all but one game this year (6-1). Ironically, the one Under was a game (vs. Cleveland) that went the distance in overtime! I can't say that I'm surprised by the Bucs being such a strong Over team. I had their offense improving while also calling for the defense to regress. Thus far, that's exactly what has taken place. The offense has gone from 20.9 PPG (18th) last season to 28.7 (7th) in '18. Meanwhile, the defense has gone from allowing 23.9 PPG (t22nd) to 33.3 (last). While the defensive numbers are obviously terrible, the offense - specifically QB - has been the biggest story in Tampa. The QB carousel is back to Ryan Fitzpatrick after he was benched after Week 4. You'll recall Fitzpatrick was only the starter initially b/c Jameis Winston was suspended. Winston went from suspended to "ineffective," so it's back to Fitzmagic we go.

Carolina just hung 36 on the best defense in the league, Baltimore. Sure they were helped out by some turnovers, but only one offense before them was able to even score more than 24 against the Ravens. In their last three home games, the Panthers have scored 31, 33 and 36 points. All three games went Over. I have to say that I'm surprised by Carolina's success this year as I definitely had them regressing from LY's 11-5 record. But w/ them starting 5-2 this year, I may have to eat my words. Consider that all of last season, they outscored opponents by only 36 points. This year, they're already at a +26 point differential. If there is one thing they should be concerned about though, it's a defense allowing 6.0 yards per play. 

The only two offenses that TB has held under 30 pts this season are: Cleveland and Philadelphia w/o Carson Wentz. I see no reason why the Panthers can't hit that benchmark this week. At the same time, I expect the Panthers defense to also give up their fair share of yards and points. They've hardly faced a difficult slate of opposing offenses to this point. Tampa Bay is actually averaging 467.9 YPG overall and is - by far and away - the top passing offense in the league at 376 YPG (58 YPG more than the #2 team). Fitzpatrick, while turnover prone, is no more turnover prone than Winston. You'll recall he started the season w/ B2B 400+ yard, 4 TD games before coming back down to Earth and being benched. But he almost led an improbable comeback LW in Cincinnati, throwing two 4Q touchdowns. I think you can tell which way I'm going here. 10* Over Bucs/Panthers

10* Columbus (10:35 ET): I'm not used to seeing the Kings struggle the way they are right now, but unpacking the numbers reveals things are just as a bad as the look. The club has dropped seven of eight w/ its lone win during that stretch coming against the lowly Rangers. That one win is the only time in those eight games that the Kings have scored more than two goals. As a result, the team currently ranks dead last in the league in scoring at just 2.0 goals per game. They have the worst goal differential (-20) in the league as well. Usually, you could count on LA for being one of the top defensive teams, but that's not the case this year as they're 26th in goals allowed. Jonathan Quick is hurt and they've allowed 4+ goals in seven of those last eight games (again, the win being the exception). That's a real bad stretch of hockey we're talking about here, and unfortunately it's going to get worse before it gets better. 

Columbus hasn't exactly been stingy between the pipes either. Sergei Bobrovsky and Joonas Korpisalo have combined for an .888 save percentage, but the former turned away 44 shots in a 4-1 win over San Jose Thursday. It was the first time all year that the Blue Jackets allowed fewer than two goals in a game. Matched up w/ the lowest scoring team in the league, I see them making it two straight. Columbus has won three of four overall w/ 19 goals scored. The Blue Jackets are one of the highest scoring teams in the league so far (5th) at 3.6 goals per game and they've been real "road warriors" as well, averaging 4.2 gpg. As a result, their record is 4-1 outside of Ohio. 

Quick's injury is a real killer for the Kings, who now have to rely on backup Jack Campbell, who has allowed 10 goals on 96 shots faced here at home. The Kings did sweep last season's two matchups with the Blue Jackets, but both saw Quick in goal. They also scored 11 times on Columbus, a pace they are not going to maintain tonight. The fact that Columbus is 5th in goals per game despite a subpar power play is pretty impressive. It sounds strange to say, but the Kings are at the bottom of the league right now and absolutely one of the worst teams. This should be an easy two points for the visitors Saturday night. 10* Columbus

8* New Mexico (10:15 ET): Needless to say, HC Rocky Long has enjoyed an unparalleled amount of success in the long standing rivalry between San Diego State and New Mexico. When Long was the HC at New Mexico, his Lobos won eight straight over the Aztecs from 2001-08. Now as the HC at San Diego State, it's the Aztecs that currently enjoy a six-game win streak in this Mt West rivalry! So I realize it's risky to try and fade Long in this matchup late Saturday night, especially considering San Diego State is 12-0 SU against teams w/ losing records the L3 seasons. But this is a pretty big number to lay in Albuquerque for an Aztecs team that only averages 21.1 points per game. 

San Diego State lost as favorites last week on the road, falling to Nevada 28-24. They were just a two-point choice there. Despite outgaining the Wolf Pack 456-297 (24-14 in first downs), the Aztecs were shutout in the second half. This has simply not been a good ATS team in 2018 as their only win by more than a touchdown came against FCS school, Sacramento State. Their other five wins have been by a total of 23 points. So I don't see how they can be asked to lay this number on the road. They only beat a terrible San Jose State team by three at home and have not scored more than 24 points in any conference game. They are 0-5 ATS when favored this season. 

 Now New Mexico is off a 61-19 drubbing at the hands of Utah State last week and a 38-7 loss to Fresno State the game before. But those just might be the two best teams in the MWC this year. Having never beaten Long, UNM HC Bob Davie is going to be particularly motivated here, especially w/ his Lobos needing to win three of the final four games to be bowl eligible. Not that it would have changed the final outcome, but five turnovers killed this team last week. Davie's future is very much up in the air, so he badly needs a big win and to get the Lobos to the postseason. Davie has made another change at QB for this game as it will Colton Gerhart taking snaps, bringing a run-pass mix option to the table. The change makes the underdog a little tougher to prepare for and I think they keep it close. 8* New Mexico 

10* Indiana (7:05 ET): After trailing by as many as 18 in the first half, the Pacers were able to come back and beat the lowly Bulls Friday night w/ Darren Collison's jumper in the final seconds being the difference in a 107-105 final. It was the team's second straight "close" win as they beat the Knicks by only six on Wednesday. But now, for just the fourth time all year, Indiana gets to play a home game. They won their first two, beating both Brooklyn and Memphis pretty handily, but lost to Portland earlier in the week. This won't be an easy three-game homestand for the Pacers as they face the Celtics, Rockets and 76ers. But I think they'll up to the challenge tonight from Boston.

While Indiana is the team playing the second night of a back to back, I'm wondering if it's not the Celtics in the worse situation here. They're being asked to lay points on the road after a big home win Thursday night over previously unbeaten Milwaukee. I see no way the Celtics will match their prolific shooting from that game where they made a record 24 three-pointers. That three-point shooting helped nullify that the Bucks had a ridiculous 62-22 edge in points in the paint. The Celtics did have a double-digit lead going into the 4Q, but things quickly got tight and they had to hold on a for 117-113 victory. While Boston has won four in a row, three of those wins have been by six points or less. 

I'm certain that the Indiana players and coaching staff will treat this as a "measuring stick" game as to determine where the team is at in the Eastern Conference pecking order. Last year, they played four tight games w/ the Celtics and the road team surprisingly won all four. Three of the games were decided by a total of nine points, so going w/ the underdog here seems logical. The way that Boston was outscored in the paint by Milwaukee makes me thinks that the Pacers' Domantas Sabonis is going to have a big game here. Sabonis is shooting 70.7% from the field so far. Jaylen Brown is currently listed as questionable for the Celtics. Take the points. 10* Indiana

8* SMU (7:00 ET): Houston treated me very well last week as my top American Conference Game of the Year. They routed USF 57-36, gaining nearly 700 total yards of offense in the process. Not surprisingly then, the Cougars are the quintessential "public side" this week at SMU, a team w/ a losing record. Houston has scored at least 41 points in every game this season and outside of still unbeaten UCF, should be viewed as the top team in this conference. But this shapes up to be the proverbial letdown game, a situation where they're off the biggest win of the year and have another big home game on deck, vs. Temple, next week. Meanwhile, this could be viewed as SMU's biggest home game of the year outside of TCU. The Mustangs have played a fairly challenging schedule to this point and generally been competitive. I'll take the points. 

Earlier this year, I took SMU as a home dog and came out w/ a winning ticket. It was against Navy, a game they won outright 31-30. It was at a time when the team was coming off B2B losses to TCU and Michigan. Last week was another OT game, only this time the Ponies lost on a pick-six to Cincinnati. There was only overtime because Cincinnati drove for a game-tying FG at the end of regulation. Still, SMU covered as 8.5-pt dogs, so they're 4-1 ATS the last five times they have taken points. The only ATS loss during that time came at unbeaten UCF. Note that the Mustangs were within two scores of Michigan in the Big House in the 4th quarter earlier in the year. They also upset Tulane on the road two weeks ago. 

Houston was only a six-point favorite at home when it beat SMU 35-22 last season. They certainly haven't forgotten their last trip here to Gerald J. Ford Stadium either as two years ago saw SMU record its first win over a ranked opponent at home in five years w/ a resounding 38-16 triumph. A key here w/ UH laying so many points is that they have a defense that gives up 480 yards per game and who knows if DE Ed Oliver will be held out again. Look for the Mustangs to score enough to hang around and stay inside the number. 8* SMU

10* Tulane (3:30 ET): I will continue to play against South Florida as they may have the most misleading record in the entire country right now. I've been saying it for weeks (months?) now and it finally came to fruition last week as the Bulls were blown out at Houston, losing 57-36. It was USF's first loss of the year, but by no means their first shaky - or even poor - performance. In my analysis last week, I noted that I didn't even have USF ranked among my top 80 teams in the country! So the fact they were Top 25 was quite laughable to me. Despite taking the loss, this is still a team overvalued in the marketplace because of its record. This will be the fourth consecutive game I play against the Bulls - and fifth time overall this season. I expect to be 5-0 ATS by the time Saturday night rolls around. 

The first time I played against USF this year was when they hosted East Carolina on Sept 24th. They were on the heels of two narrow, come from behind victories over Georgia Tech and Illinois the previous two weeks. Somehow - despite ECU having a 24-9 edge in first downs - USF was able to sneak by the Pirates, 20-13. But they did not cover as 22-pt chalk. Nor did they cover the second time I faded them, a weeknight game at Tulsa, which required another late comeback. Tulsa and Illinois are a combined 4-12 SU, yet USF trailed both by two scores in the 4th quarter. The next week, I took a big number w/ UConn (+33) and USF never even came close to covering that, winning only 38-30 against one of the worst teams in the entire country. Then came last week's loss to Houston where the defense surrendered 57 pts and nearly 700 total yards. It was the 3rd game this year that USF has been outgained by at least 150 total yards. They've been down at the end of the 1st quarter in six of their eight games. 

Tulane comes in at 3-5 SU overall and will need to win three of its final four games to be bowl eligible. Considering a road date w/ Houston looms, the Green Wave probably need to win this game. They've won 4 and 5 games in two years under HC Willie Fritz, last year getting denied a sixth win in the final regular season game when they were stopped at the goal line on the final play. The key here for them is a change at QB where LSU transfer Justin McMillan has replaced senior Jonathan Banks. McMillan averaged nearly 10.0 yards per carry last week in a 24-17 win at Tulsa where the offense gained 312 yards on the ground. They also gained 300+ yards rushing earlier in the year in an upset of Memphis. Over the L3 wks, USF's defense has allowed 220, 322 (to UConn!) and 263 yds rushing. 10* Tulane 

10* TCU (3:30 ET): The Horned Frogs are off one of the more embarrassing defeats of the Gary Patterson era as they fell to Kansas last week, 27-26 as 13.5-pt favorites. They "should have" won; note a near +200 edge in total yards and the fact they fumbled on the KU six-yard line in the final minute. But still, that's no excuse to lose to a team that had dropped its previous 38 October games! Shockingly, TCU has won just one of its last six games, but two of the last three losses coming by a field goal or less. They've also had to take on both Ohio State and Oklahoma this year and they played the former very tough in what was a neutral site game. Last week "should have" been the Horned Frogs' easiest game of the year, instead it was their most embarrassing. I'll now call for their "best" performance to date as they're back home to face Kansas State. Lay the points. 

Kansas State did pull an upset a few weeks ago over Oklahoma State, but did so at home. This is simply not one of Bill Snyder's better teams. Coming off the upset of OSU and a bye, the Wildcats were trounced last week down in Oklahoma, 51-14. Certainly, no one gave them a real shot of beating the Sooners, but they were completely dominated. OU outgained them 702-245 for the game and led 48-7 heading into the fourth quarter. Kansas State is 0-3 on the road this season w/ two of the losses coming by at least 29 points. Next week, they host rival Kansas, which may be what the coaching staff is more focused on right now. TCU has been upset three times already this year, so their coaching staff isn't looking past anybody at this point. 

Facing a backup QB last year, the TCU defense held Kansas State to a season-low 216 yards and won 26-6. Now neither team is as good as they were in 2017, but I think it's instructive to note the Horned Frogs were six-point chalk LY in Manhattan and now barely more than that here in Ft. Worth. The Frogs have performed shockingly poor at home ATS the L3 seasons (just 2-15!), but this line is a bargain. Despite the three-game losing skid, TCU is still 38-15 SU off a loss under HC Patterson and has NEVER dropped four in a row during his tenure. Last week saw them average 7.0 yards per play while allowing only 4.6. Had they not lost that game to Kansas, we're probably looking at a double digit line here. Good value. QB Michael Collins, only starting because of an injury to Shawn Robinson, threw for 351 yards last week and Kansas State's secondary is suspect to say the least. 10* TCU

8* Colorado (10:30 ET): When "unpacking" this College Football season, you may not find a more shocking result than what happened last week between Colorado and Oregon State. It's not that the Buffs lost per se, although losing to team that was 0-22 its previous 22 road games is pretty embarrassing. It's HOW they lost. They actually led 31-3 midway through the third quarter, which is when the wheels began to come off. Oregon State put together a 24-point fourth quarter to send the game into OT and won 41-38 as 26-pt underdogs. Colorado had more total yards, but failed to put the game away by missing field goals and turning it over on downs. Needless to say, a Buffaloes team that was once 5-0 SU (now 5-3) should be plenty motivated in the desert Friday night. 

Meanwhile, Arizona is off its biggest win of the season. I'm proud to say that I was on it as the Wildcats treated me to a 44-15 upset of #19 Oregon late last Saturday night. Key was not just the return of QB Khalil Tate, but also three Oregon turnovers. I have to say that, even as someone who was holding a ticket on the Wildcats, it was pretty shocking how easily dominated the Ducks. After all, this is a team that had been blown out twice this year (at Houston, at Utah) and also had lost twice at home (BYU, USC). They entered that Oregon game off B2B losses, having even dropped a one-point game to lowly 2-6 UCLA. I think it's important we don't overreact too much to one great performance from the Wildcats. 

This game is very important for both teams' bowl eligibility. Being bowl eligible once seemed like a formality for Colorado, but not anymore as they've dropped three straight. Make no mistake about it; they "should have" won last week. Arizona has won five of the previous six meetings, including 45-42 LY in Boulder, which is when Tate came onto the scene and set a FBS rushing record for QB's w/ 327 (!) yards. The road team has won three straight in this Pac 12 rivalry and I can't help but think Colorado is the value play here coming off a loss while Arizona simply is not as good as it looked last week. 8* Colorado 

10* Over Knicks/Mavs (8:35 ET): The O/U line itself has been huge in determining whether or not Mavericks games have Over or Under this year. Obviously, that's the case for any team and basically why an O/U line exists! But looking at the O/U lines for Mavs' games, a pretty clear pattern emerges. The Under is 3-0 when the O/U line is 229 pts or higher. But the Over is 4-0 at 220.5 or lower. Here, we find them coming off an Under and a failed comeback attempt against the Lakers Wednesday night. They lost 114-113, still a pretty high scoring game by an objective standard, but not high enough to top the huge 234-pt total that was set. So far, only one Mavs game has seen less than 221 total pts scored. I'll go w/ the Over here. 

The Knicks have seen five of their last seven games stay Under the total, but more concerning to them is the fact they've dropped six of those seven games. Their most recent loss came Wednesday night, 107-101 to Indiana, a game where they blew a 4th quarter lead. Lucky for them that Dallas is on a five-game losing streak, so somebody is going to have to pick up a win here. My guess is that we see a high-scoring game, which is often the case when two bad teams meet up. Neither team is playing much defense in the early going, especially Dallas, who is giving up 116.6 PPG on nearly 50% shooting. They've allowed five different opponents to shoot 51% or better. The Knicks just let the Pacers shoot 54.2% from the field and they are giving up 110.2 PPG on the year. 

Now neither team has shot the ball particularly well itself, but Dallas has averaged 119.7 points in three home games. The Knicks have yet to win on the road (0-3) but still average a respectable 106 PPG, a number they should top tonight. One bad offensive performance (87 pts at Miami) is still heavily skewing their overall numbers. Other than that one game, both teams have scored at least 100 in every game. The fewest number of points Dallas has given up in any game this year is 109. 10* Over Knicks/Mavs

8* Pittsburgh (7:30 ET): So I decided to take a "second look" at this game this morning and have come to the conclusion that I can't see Virginia winning by more than one score. We have two hot ACC teams here, both on three-game ATS win streaks. Pitt did lose once SU during that span, but that was by only five points at Notre Dame. It feels like the Panthers are still being unfairly weighed down by a bit of a rough start to the season. Similarly, it feels as if Virginia is being overvalued on the heels of a three-game win streak. I'm taking the points here in what feels like an even matchup.

The biggest concern I have w/ Pitt here is they are 0-3 on the road. Their offense simply hasn't performed as well as it has at home, but let's be fair and note two of their road games came against teams that are still unbeaten, UCF and Notre Dame. The other was a three-point loss (to North Carolina) where they scored 35 points. Last week saw them roll up a season-high 634 yards (484 on the ground) and 54 points in a win over a very good Duke team. Note the final score of 54-45 is a little misleading as the Panthers scored the go-ahead TD and a safety in the final five seconds. Still, it's going to be very difficult for Virginia to outscore this team, especially by the margin the oddsmakers are calling for here. 

UVA has lost only two games this year, both on the road (Indiana, NC State). They're a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS here in Charlottesville, but that record has clearly inflated this line. It's interesting to see Pitt basically getting the same number as UNC did last week. Yes, UNC beat Pitt, but the Panthers were still favored to win that game in Chapel Hill. Virginia is now ranked, another influence on the line. I don't think for one second that the Cavaliers are one of the top 25 teams in the country. They've lost to Pitt three straight times, including 31-14 last year. Whomever wins this game will be in first place in the ACC Coastal, so it's not like Pitt won't be highly motivated. The Panthers are 4-2 ATS as underdogs this year, winning three of those games outright. 8* Pittsburgh 

8* Oakland (8:20 ET): What a terrible Thursday night matchup this is. We have the 1-6 Raiders, clearly going through an .. ahem .. "transitional" phase under HC Jon Gruden. Then there's 1-7 49ers, who are as decimated by injury as any team in the league. While they're by no means playing "well," my view is that Oakland is the better team here and their issues are more correctable. San Francisco's season basically ended when QB Jimmy Garoppolo went down w/ an ACL injury. Backup CJ Beathard certainly wasn't capable of saving things, especially w/ an injury riddled supporting cast. Now Beathard is hurt too and may not be able to play Thursday. That means it could be third string QB Nick Mullens making his first career start. Yikes. 

The Raiders actually led at the half in each of the first three games, only to lose every time, before finally picking up a win (in overtime) at the Browns' expense. Since that win, things have not gone well w/ three straight double digit losses, another Gruden trade and reports of malcontent in the locker room. The fact of the matter is that the Khalil Mack trade (right before the start of the reg season) set an ominous tone. But the team has actually played well in spots for Gruden. Not against the Chargers or the Seahawks in London, mind you, but last week they led Indianapolis into the fourth quarter. QB Derek Carr certainly played well, accounting for 4 TD passes. Carr is completing 72% of his passes this season. 

Carr will certainly be better than whomever the 49ers trot out at the QB position. Beathard injured his thumb in Sunday's 18-15 loss to Arizona. Note that Cardinals team has two wins in 2018 and both were at the 49ers' expense. Mullens has never taken a NFL regular season snap and things are so dire here that the team has signed Tom Savage to be a backup! Right now, San Francisco is as talent bereft as any team in the league. As bad as things have been for the Raiders, they've actually only been favored in one game and that was the one they won against Cleveland. So it's not like they're falling short of oddsmakers' expectations. They're underdogs again this week, but the 49ers are simply not a team that deserves to be favored at this point. 8* Oakland

8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Improbably, the Kings have won four straight - all as underdogs. I was willing to bet that streak would end at three, but was wrong as they downed Orlando on Tuesday, 107-99 as 4.5-pt road dogs. Over the past three seasons, this is just the third time that Sacramento has won more than three straight games. Tonight, they look to continue the streak, but have a couple things clearly working against them. One is that this will be their third road game in four nights. Two, for the first time all season, they find themselves favored. That's problematic considering they have lost 11 straight times in Atlanta and are just 4-16 ATS in their last 20 visits here. Last season, the Kings were road faves all of four times and didn't cover once (0-3-1 ATS). 

Atlanta, like Sacramento, is a young team that no one expected much from in 2018-19. Ten players on this Hawks' roster have two or less years of NBA experience. Take away Vince Carter and the average age of the roster drops pretty significantly. As is the case w/ many young teams, the Hawks are currently going through some growing pains. They've lost three in a row, including a bad 136-114 decision at previously winless Cleveland Tuesday night. The Hawks are just 2-5 SU and ATS overall, however they've had to play the majority of their games on the road. Rookie Trae Young has been as good as advertised, leading the team in both points (19.1 per game) and assists (6.6 per game).

Teams that are seldom favored often make for good fades when in the chalk role. Just ask Atlanta. The lone time the Hawks were favored to win a game this year, I played against them. That was Saturday vs. Chicago and sure enough, they lost outright 97-85. I think the scheduling catches up w/ the Kings here as does the inevitability that they've been overachieving of late. 8* Atlanta

10* Washington (7:35 ET): Good price on the Stanley Cup Champs here, as they're playing on the road. It's been a bit of a Cup "hangover" in the early going for the Caps, as they're just 5-3-2 their first 10 games, but I have no doubt as to this club being able to make its annual move to the top of the Metro. Here, they're faced w/ a Montreal team that is a somewhat surprising 6-3-2 thus far. I came into the year thinking that the Habs would be improved, but not to this degree. The key here is Washington has been off for four days, meaning they'll be quite fresh when they hit the ice tonight. They've also had the Habs' number in recent years, especially here in Montreal. 

The Canadiens did take a dive in their last game, losing here at home to Dallas by a score of 4-1. That had to be a frustrating result considering they outshot the Stars 35-22. But the Habs couldn't convert on a penalty shot nor could they get much going offensively against a hot goaltender. Now Washington's goaltending has been quite suspect so far, but the issue is will the Canadiens be able to keep up with the Capitals' scoring. The Caps come into tonight ranked 2nd in the league in goals per game and they also have the top power play. Alex Ovechkin has 49 points in 46 career games vs. Montreal. That's a big reason why the Caps have won 28 of their previous 41 visits to the Bell Centre, including all three the last two seasons. 

There are two key trends working in Washington's favor here. One is that they are a perfect 3-0 this season when playing w/ three or more days rest. As mentioned above, they've now been off for four days since beating Calgary 4-3 on Saturday (I was on them there, too!). Secondly, they are a remarkable 16-3 SU coming off three consecutive road games. It's pretty stunning to see that the Caps have not won B2B games this season. That streak comes to an end here as Montreal might be improved, but they're not yet at the level of the defending Stanley Cup Champions. 10* Washington

10* Under Nuggets/Cavs (7:05 ET): This is a terrible spot for Denver, who had to go to overtime last night to beat Chicago. They're 6-1 SU and looking every bit the Western Conference contender I thought they'd be, but last night showed that they can struggle against the league's weaker teams. So - by no means - will tonight's game in Cleveland be easy. However, what I'm looking at here is the total. Even though last night's game went to overtime, the Under still cashed. The Under is now 5-2 in all Nuggets' games this season, so while Cleveland is pretty terrible defensively, I think this number is simply too high Thursday night. Take the Under.

The Cavs scored a season-high 136 points Tuesday in their first win of the season. They shot 50% from the field, their first time doing so all year. But it was against the lowly Hawks. Defense continues to be an issue for the Cavs, who are still trying to figure things out under an interim coach (Larry Drew) as Ty Lue was fired on Sunday. Fortunately for the Cavs, Denver is going to come in tired tonight and likely not be at their most prolific offensively. Last night, the Nuggets didn't even score 100 pts in regulation and that was when rested and facing a Bulls team that was off an all-time bad defensive performance vs. Golden State. 

Quietly, Denver is 4th in the league in points allowed at just 103.9 per game. So that's why we can't write their chances off completely tonight, despite being in this terrible spot. That defense should not be challenged much by a Cleveland team that is w/o Kevin Love and thus lacks a true "go-to" scorer. Yes, seven Cavaliers reached double figures in the win over Atlanta, but I would not look for that to happen again as the Nuggets are highly unlikely to commit 22 turnovers like the Hawks did. The Cavs are 26th in the league in assists per game and like I said earlier; they hadn't shot 50% or better in any game until Tuesday. 10* Under Nuggets/Cavs

10* Akron (7:00 ET): Northern Illinois enters the week at 5-3 overall. They are the only MAC West team w/o a loss (4-0) in conference play and they've won four in a row overall. So they are your current leaders in the division and on pace to play in the Conference Title Game. However, looks can be deceiving. This is not the normal dominant team out of DeKalb; in fact they've been outgained and outscored on the year despite the winning record. Last week was an all-time ugly 7-6 win over BYU where they gained only 204 total yds and 11 first downs. They had just 84 total yds in the second half, 65 of those coming on their one TD drive that saw them convert three third downs, one via penalty. I'll get more into it later, but I want no part of laying pts w/ this Huskies team on the road.

Akron has won B2B games, keeping its hopes of bowl eligibility alive. The Zips did win the MAC East a year ago, though they were pretty clearly NOT the division's best team. However, the key was beating both Buffalo and Ohio here at Infocision Stadium. The Zips are 7-2 SU overall at home the L2 years, one of those losses coming this year in a game where they turned it over five times. The other was to an Iowa State team that won 8 games LY. On Saturday, they beat Central Michigan here, 17-10 as four-point chalk. They did so despite losing the turnover battle by three (led 17-0 at halftime). Assuming they can take better care of the football here, Akron is more than capable of pulling the outright upset. This will be the 1st time they've been a home dog in 2018. This is a team that won at Northwestern earlier in the year and also covered against Iowa State in Ames. 

All three Northern Illinois losses this year have come by double digits. All five wins have been by eight points or less, including three by three points or less. So that plays a significant role in me wanting to fade them in the role of road favorite. The Huskies have not had to make the trip to Akron since 2012. Akron's last win over NIU was 2005 so they'll be motivated. The Northern Illinois offense is averaging just 17.1 PPG and 4.0 yards per play. They have yet to score more than 26 pts in any game. In what is projected to be a very low scoring game (check that total!), I'll gladly take the points w/ the home team in this Thursday night matchup. 10* Akron

8* Vancouver (10:05 ET): My read on the Blackhawks this year is that this is a team living off past reputation. Certainly, no one saw last year's last place finish in the Central coming, but the 2018-19 season doesn't seem to be a whole lot more promising. They come to Vancouver tonight off B2B losses, one of them on the road (St. Louis) where they gave up seven goals. Last time out, they fell at home, 2-1 to the Oilers. That one went to OT as Chicago is now 3-3 in games that go past regulation. Their only goal came from a power play which still ranks 30th in the league (12.2%). This is a good price to fade the Blackhawks, in my opinion. 

Vancouver has battled through a number of injuries to start the season a respectable 7-6. They are actually just one point out of first place in the Pacific. So a win tonight and they'll be in first place by their lonesome! The team is off a 5-2 win over Minnesota on Monday (here at home), but of course it came w/ a price as center Brandon Sutter was lost to a shoulder injury and could be out for "weeks." Sutter joins a number of fellow Canucks on the injury list, but the five goal effort from two nights ago tells me this group is still ready to compete. 

Jacob Markstrom has a respectable .929 save percentage his L4 starts for the Canucks, so I look for them to have the edge in goal in this one. Chicago's cummulative save percentage for the year is still below .900, which isn't good news. Obviously, the defensive effort vs. St. Louis (where they allowed 7 goals) was terrible. While it was better against the Oilers, the team is still 24th in the league in goals allowed. Incredibly, the Blackhawks are just 19-45 their previous 64 Western Conference games. They are also 7-23 their L30 road games against teams with a winning home record. The Canucks are 3-2 on home ice. 8* Vancouver 

10* Toledo (7:30 ET): It looks as if I may have been a week early on the Toledo resurgence. Two weeks ago, I took the Rockets (as they were a rare home dog) and unfortunately, they came up short for me in a 31-17 loss to Buffalo (who has been the MAC's best team this year). But last week finally saw the Rockets blast off w/ a dominant 51-24 win at Western Michigan. They totaled over 500 yards of offense in the contest and did not commit a single turnover, a far cry from four giveaways they had vs. Buffalo. This is the first time in eight years that Toledo has four losses in its first eight games and lost two out of its first four conference games. An ATS resurgence should also be on the way as they've produced a winning record for bettors seven of the last eight years as well. Back at the Glass Bowl, I expect them to win big Wednesday night.

Ball State is not a very good team. Let's use that statement as our starting point. The Cardinals are just 3-6 SU w/ one win coming against a FCS school and another by one point at Central Michigan. Last week saw their defense get run over to the tune of 411 yards rushing by Ohio in a 52-14 beatdown. It was a 52-7 game heading into the fourth quarter w/ BSU giving up all those points in just two quarters of play! As you might expect, the Cardinals' defensive numbers are pretty horrific overall as they've allowed 94 pts total the L2 games. They're not too much better on offense where they are averaging just 16.0 PPG on the road. Even worse is that they're now going to be w/o starting QB Riley Neal after he suffered a knee injury in the loss to Ohio. 

Toledo is also dealing with an injury at the QB position as starter Mitchell Guadagni is questionable to play after exiting the Western Michigan game w/ a shoulder injury. But there are two reasons as to why the Rockets are far better equipped to deal w/ their QB injury than is Ball State. One is that backup Eli Peters has already started two games this season and he also threw three second half TD passes last week. The other is no matter who the QB is, they can rely on a run game that has gone for 225+ yards three of the last four games. Toledo should move the ball at ease in this game (again, regardless of who is playing QB) and, by the way, Ball State will probably be w/o its leading tackler (Jacob White, who was also injured in the Ohio game) and leading rusher James Gilbert is questionable as well. 10* Toledo

8* Kent State (8:00 ET): Bluntly speaking, there are many matchups of terrible teams on this week's CFB slate (UTEP-Rice definitely taking the cake). This one is definitely the first. Kent State and Bowling Green are both 0-4 in MAC play and 1-7 overall. Both can also be counted among my bottom 10 teams in the entire country. That said, Kent State is obviously the better team here, a fact that should be obvious by the fact Bowling Green isn't even laying the standard three points here at home. Further illustrating the Falcons' futility is the fact that they have been outscored by 22.1 points per game this season. Kent State is by no means a "good team," but they are only -12.0 PPG. This is easily the best chance for both teams to pick up a conference win this year and I think the Golden Flashes get it.

Kent State has actually had a couple of close losses in the L3 wks, both times outgaining their opponent. One came 10 days ago, their last game, against rival Akron. It was a very minor edge they had in total yards (371-362) and the game went into overtime. In OT, the Golden Flashes elected to go for two and the win after scoring a touchdown. They obviously failed. Two weeks prior, they led Ohio virtually the entire way (by as many as 14 pts), but gave up the lead with just under 90 seconds remaining. So they've at least come close to winning a couple of MAC games. They also played Illinois tough in the season opener, losing by just a touchdown on the road. I had them in a cover at Ole Miss earlier in the year as well. 

Like Kent State, BG's only win came against a FCS team. Kent State beat Howard while Bowling Green beat Eastern Kentucky. But let's now focus on the clear differences. Kent State blew out their FCS opponent, 54-14. Bowling Green barely beat theirs, only winning by a touchdown. They were even down by two touchdowns early and outgained for the game! Another difference is the Falcons have never come close to beating a MAC opponent. The closest they came was a touchdown. The other three losses have all been by 15+ or more. They have already fired their coach (Mike Jinks), making this a "lost season." Neither team has a very good defense, but the Golden Flashes have been slightly better on that side of the ball, particularly in the red zone. That's pretty much the story of these two teams as Kent State is simply slightly better in all facets. They also have revenge for five straight losses in the series. 8* Kent State

8* Under Hawks/Cavaliers (7:05 ET): The last time these teams played was October 21st. It was also the first sign Cleveland was potentially headed for a second post-LeBron disaster. They lost the game 133-111 (to the Hawks!) and remain winless on the season as they're 0-6 SU entering tonight's rematch. Over the weekend, they fired HC Ty Lue, a sign that management may not have a clue as to how bad this team truly is. Now they are looking at being w/o Kevin Love for the next month. The Cavs' defense has been beyond horrendous so far, not only in conceding 133 pts to the Hawks in the last meeting, but also allowing Indiana to shoot 64% from the field in a 119-107 loss on Saturday. Despite that, I'm looking for this game to stay Under the total.

Atlanta may have torched Cleveland for 133 nine days ago, but they've scored just 177 pts total the L2 games. One of those saw me fade them, that being Saturday night's outright loss to Chicago. There, they shot a woeful 32.1% from the field. They weren't much better last night in a 113-92 loss at Philadelphia, shooting only 37.2%. That game was basically decided in the 3Q when the Sixers outscored them 31-13. The Hawks also didn't help themselves by going just 8 of 37 from three-point range and missing seven of 21 free throw attempts. If there has been one shining light of late for this team, it's been the defense as they've held three straight opponents below 44.0% from the field. All three games have gone Under. The Under is 25-11 for Atlanta when coming off 3+ consecutive Unders. 

Now the Over has cashed the last NINE times these teams have met. Interestingly enough, the O/U line here is lower than what it was for the first matchup. While the Over did cash there, Atlanta is 11-5 Under the L16x its played a game w/ a OU line north of 220. That includes a 3-1 mark this season, the 1st game vs. the Cavs being the exception. I obviously don't see the Hawks being as prolific offensively tonight as they were in that first visit when they made a franchise record 22 three-pointers. At the same time, without Love (and really any viable scoring options), Cleveland is really going to struggle to put the ball in the basket the next several games. 8* Under Hawks/Cavaliers