8* Run Line Kansas City (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am taking the Royals +1.5. This is an excellent spot for KC to get on track, facing a Cleveland team that has lost NINE in a row and was just swept in a doubleheader yesterday. Plus the Royals have revenge as they were swept at home by the Indians back in early May. It seems almost shocking that we are able to get an additional 1.5 runs to work with against a team that’s lost nine in a row. The Royals won’t do any worse than a one-run loss here. 

Truthfully, Cleveland was due for a downturn. They had been overperforming their expected win total (based on run differential) all season. Even now, having dropped to .500, you look at the run differential column and see -29. The Indians have been hit hard by injuries, which helps explain the skid, but also they just aren’t very strong offensively. Seven of the last nine games have seen them score three runs or less. They managed only one run in 14 innings of baseball yesterday and didn’t even get a single hit in the second game. 

Kansas City is also on a nine-game losing streak - on the road. So something will have to give here. The Royals also just dropped two of three at home to Cincinnati. But this is a team they can beat. Yes, Zach Plesac (who starts for the Indians tonight) has had their number in the past. But tonight will be his first time starting since May 23rd as he’s fresh off the DL. Danny Duffy is the better starter in this matchup, at least in my eyes, as he’s allowed 3 ER or less in 8 of his L10 starts. Keeping Cleveland’s anemic offense in check won’t be hard and the Royals should easily stay within a run of the Tribe. 8* Run Line Kansas City (+1.5)

8* Houston (2:10 ET): It was MONTHS ago that I predicted the Astros would surpass the A’s in the AL West. That has already happened and now Houston can put even more distance between themselves and their division rival by finishing off a sweep Thursday afternoon. The lead over Oakland has grown to 5.5 games following wins on Tuesday (9-6) and Wednesday (4-3). What made me so confident in the Astros’ ability to surpass the Athletics was the respective YTD run differentials. Houston’s was always better and has now grown to a MLB-best +141. Oakland’s run diff is a far more mediocre +25. I expect the home team to finish off the sweep here. 

With them having won six in a row, I consider Houston the #1 team in baseball right now. They are 9-3 against the A’s this season. After yesterday’s win, the Astros are 19-5 this season when priced between -125 and -175 at home. Early on in the season, the A’s were quite fortunate in one-run games. However, that’s since changed with them dropping six of the last seven games decided by one run. They’ve lost 12 of 17 overall and are 0-5-1 the L6 series. 

Not only are the teams headed in opposite directions, but so are today’s two starting pitchers. Lance McCullers hasn’t dropped a decision since April and is 5-0 since that time with a 2.38 ERA. The team has won each of his last four outings. McCullers is also 6-2 in 11 career starts vs. Oakland, two of those coming this year where he allowed only two runs on four hits in 10 IP. Trending in the opposite direction is the Athletics’ Frankie Montas, who is 2-5 with a 4.38 ERA his L9 starts. The team has lost each of his L3 times out. Trust the numbers on this one. Houston is simply much better. 8* Houston

7* San Francisco (9:45 ET): The Giants are looking to avoid a three-game sweep here at home vs. St. Louis. They’ve lost the first two games 5-3 and 6-5, dropping them to 3-6 the L9 games. They do continue to lead the NL West though as the Dodgers have also lost their last two games. But that lead is a tenuous one with only one-half game separating the two California rivals. There can be no argument against the fact San Francisco has been the most pleasant surprise in all of baseball in 2021 as they are +20.3 units at the betting window and have the best overall won-loss record. I see them avoiding the sweep. 

St. Louis is not a great team, so the fact they could come into San Fran and take the first two games has been a bit surprising. The Cardinals are now a game within .500, but they’ve been outscored by 38 runs this year, so this is clearly a below average ballclub. They are 3-12 this season when priced between +125 and +175 on the road. The Giants, meanwhile, are not only 26-13 overall at home but 4-1 when priced -175 or higher on the money line. The NL West leaders are also 20-10 off a loss. 

Johan Oviedo is still in search of his first win this season for St. Louis. He’s 0-4 in 10 starts and the road has been especially unkind with a 6.20 ERA and 2.017 WHIP. The team did win his last start, at Colorado, but that was only after scoring six runs in extra innings. Alex Wood goes for the home team tonight and he is looking to win a third straight decision. He has allowed just three runs in his last two starts. The Giants are 4-1 the last five times he’s taken the mound. Visiting teams hit just .211 here in SF and St. Louis is hitting just .217 for the year away from home. So it’s hard for me to see another decent game at the plate from them. 7* San Francisco

10* Denmark +0.75 (3:00 ET): Note that I am playing the goal line here. While I do think Denmark has what it takes to win this semifinal in “normal time,” playing the goal line only requires them to be tied at the end of 90 minutes + stoppage time. England is the favorite here as they are at home (Wembley) and have yet to concede a single goal in this tournament. But Denmark will be their toughest test yet (yes, even tougher than Germany) and at the very least this match will be level at the end of regulation. You can definitely expect the Danes to be the first to score on The Three Lions. 

England may be the favorite on the money line, but Denmark is the sentimental favorite after what happened with Christian Eriksen in the very first match of the tournament. After losing their first two matches, Denmark looked to be in real trouble. But they’ve since won three in a row, all in normal time. They scored four goals against both Russia and Wales, then outlasted the Czech Republic 2-1 in the quarterfinals. The goal conceded in the quarterfinals is the lone non-penalty conceded by Denmark during the three match win streak. In other words, they’ve been almost as stingy as England while also displaying far more offensive firepower. 

Denmark leads England in shots on goal (86 to 37), expected goals (10.1 to 7.8) and actual goals (10 to 8) in this tournament. I did play England in their quarterfinal match against Ukraine, but noted it was a clear fade on the underdog, who was easily the weakest of the eight teams remaining. Winning at Wembley will be tough as Denmark won’t have the crowd support that they’ve relied on for much of this run. But all we need is for them to be even after 90 minutes. This is a side that has trailed for only 20 total minutes in their last four matches. England had scored only four goals in its first four matches. 10* Denmark +0.75

10* Over Yankees/Mariners (10:10 ET): The Yankees are underachieving at the moment with seven losses in their last nine games. They’ve been booed off the field by their own fans and are just a game above .500 as we near the All-Star Break. With three teams ahead of them in the American League East and a 10.5 game gap between them and the first place Red Sox, there is plenty of work to be done. They could start by scoring more runs. Did you know that they’ve scored the fewest number of runs among all AL teams this season? 

I’ve written about it before, but Seattle is MLB’s biggest overachiever in the first half of the season. They have a YTD run differential of -42. Based on said run differential, you’d “expect” them to have a WL record of 38-47. Instead, they are 45-40, largely on the back of a 19-7 record in one-run games and 9-1 record in extra innings. Both those records are MLB’s best. The gap between the Mariners’ expected and actual win total is the largest in all of MLB. They are due for a downturn and the bottom line is you should expect them to fall out of playoff contention in the second half.

For this series opener, I’m going with the Over. Both teams do have their issues offensively, but you’ve got to look at the two starters for Tuesday. Justus Sheffield has really struggled of late for Seattle with a 9.45 ERA and 2.176 WHIP his L3 starts. Going back further, he hasn’t lasted a full six innings in any of his L7 starts, a span in which his ERA is 7.09 and his WHIP is 1.97. So he’s been struggling for a while now. Speaking of struggling, Jameson Taillon has been downright awful on the road for the Yankees. He has a 11.12 ERA and 2.118 WHIP outside the Bronx and all five of those starts have gone Over the total. 10* Over Yankees/Mariners

8* Arizona (9:40 ET): In a season where virtually NOTHING has gone right for the D’backs, starter Merrill Kelly has been something of a “good luck charm.” The team has won his last three starts, which may not sound all that awe-inspiring, but consider for a moment that Arizona has lost 50 of its last 58 games! Obviously, you’ve got to be rather selective about taking them (to say the least!) and it’s not something I plan on doing very often. But hosting a Colorado team and having revenge for a prior three-game sweep is enticing enough for me. 

The Rockies are coming off a 6-1 homestand and I had them Sunday in a come from behind effort against the Cardinals. They scored a run in the eighth and ninth innings to prevail 3-2. But sadly (for them) they must now bid adieu to Coors Field and hit the road. There is no worse team on the road than this one as the Rockies’ record away from Denver is a hideous 6-31. Over the last three weeks, they’ve played just two series (and five games) away from home. Overall, they’ve lost eight of their last nine road games. Today’s starter Jon Gray has an 0-5 TSR on the road this season. 

Kelly has essentially carried Arizona to wins in each of his last three starts. He has a 1.80 ERA and 0.90 WHIP during that time. All three starts were quality as he’s allowed just four runs in 20 IP. Even more impressive is who he’s beaten. San Francisco, Milwaukee and San Diego were the victims. All three are potential playoff teams with two being NL division leaders. If Kelly can beat those teams, then he certainly can beat MLB’s worst road team, which hits a pathetic .196 outside of Coors Field while scoring just 2.6 runs per game. 8* Arizona

10* Argentina (9:00 ET): Argentina has had a much better Copa America tournament compared to Colombia and I’m surprised to see their odds dropping here for this semi-final clash. Since opening with a 1-1 draw vs. Chile, La Albiceleste has won four straight while keeping three clean sheets. They won Group A and then easily dispatched Ecuador (3-0) in the quarterfinals to get to this round. I expect them to win this one inside of 90 minutes and advance to face Brazil in the Final on Sunday. 

Colombia has definitely underperformed expectations in this tournament. They lost twice in the group stage. There’s no shame in going down 2-1 to Brazil, but a loss by the same score to Peru was certainly disappointing. As was a goalless draw with Venezuela.  They did beat Ecuador, 1-0, in the opening fixture of the group stage, but that is their only win inside of 90 minutes in this tournament. They made the semifinals after outlasting Uruguay on penalties Saturday.

So inside of 90 minutes, Colombia has scored only three goals this entire tournament! Argentina has scored a total of seven in the last two matches alone. Lionel Messi has scored more goals in this tournament than the entire Colombia team.  The favorites haven’t lost here in the Copa America and nor will they tonight as they look to win their first Copa America since ‘93. An Argentina-Brazil final seems quite logical at this point. 10* Argentina

10* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): The Cubs have lost nine in a row and 15 out of their last 19 games. Most of those losses have come on the road, including the nine straight. Finally, they get back to the “Friendly Confines” (of Wrigley Field) on Monday and they’ll be hosting the Phillies, who got beat 11-1 on Sunday. The Cubs are 26-13 at home this season and 94-58 here since the start of 2019. The Phillies are 15-26 on the road this year and 62-90 since the start of 2019. Look for the Cubs to snap the losing skid. 

Six of the Cubs’ nine straight losses have been by one run. That includes four of the last five and the last three vs. the Reds. This offense needs to wake up and should today against Matt Moore, who has a 7.10 ERA his last three outings. He has a 1.875 WHIP for the season as well. He did just throw five shutout innings vs. the Mets last time out, but that’s unlikely to be repeated. The Cubs average 4.8 rpg at home. 

Yesterday marked the third time in the last six games that the Phillies allowed 11 or more runs. They’ve allowed 10 or more runs 11 times.  I have them rated as the worst team in the NL East. Zach Davies has a 6-2 TSR at home for the Cubs. I just think this one boils down to homefield advantage as well as the notion that the Cubs are “due.” They’re a better team than the Phillies anyway. 10* Chi Cubs

8* Atlanta (7:05 ET): The Braves come in as winners of four of their last five games. That particular streak began with a 20-2 beatdown of the Mets last Wednesday. Believe it or not, that was NOT the 1st time the Braves scored 20 runs in a game this year. They also did so May 21st vs. Pittsburgh, a series they’d go on to take three of four. They outscored the Bucs 33-3 in the three wins and since that time Pittsburgh has gotten no better. They did win Sunday, but that was only after six straight losses where they scored a total of eight runs. Even in victory yday, they could manage only two runs. 

The Pirates are in last place in the Central with a 30-53 record. They’ve been outscored by 116 runs. It’s pretty clear that they are one of the three worst teams in baseball right now (Orioles, D’backs being the others). To score only 10 runs in seven games is pretty lousy. Starting today is Chase DeJong and I don’t think he’s good enough to keep his team in this one. Not only is De Jong still winless on the year, but he has a 6.58 ERA and 1.756 WHIP in his last three starts.

This game is very important for Atlanta as they try yet again to reach .500. It’s a plateau they’ve tried and failed to reach six different times in 2021. I think a matchup with Pittsburgh is what should get them (finally) over the hump. Max Fried gets the starting nod. He has a 0.889 WHIP in his last three starts after being the starter in that 20-2 win over the Mets last week. Fried has allowed 3 ER or less in eight of his last nine starts. The Braves have won 11 of 18 overall. 8* Atlanta

10* San Francisco (9:10 ET): Playing against Arizona is like “taking candy from a baby.” If you’d simply wagered against them in every game this season, then you’d be up 34.6 units. No team even really comes close to that and it should surprise none of you to know I’ve got the D’backs last in my own personal power ratings. After notching a rare win on Thursday, they’ve subsequently dropped two in a row to the Giants and Sunday’s series finale certainly looks to favor the road team with Anthony DeSclafani starting. The Giants are 16-3 L19 games vs. Arizona, including 8-1 this season. 

While things are dire out in the desert, San Francisco has been the biggest surprise in all of MLB this season. They are #1 in net units (+22.7 units) and continue to stay in front of the more talented Dodgers, which is quite the achievement. There’s really nothing phony about the Giants’ 52-30 record either as they are +103 in run differential, third best in all of baseball (Astros, Dodgers). Before winning each of the L2 days, they’d been on a season-worst four-game losing skid. But that’s in the past now. With the Dodgers (and Padres) not far behind, there is no reason for the Giants to “let up” anytime soon. 

DeSclafani has an 11-5 TSR this season. The team did lose his last start as he allowed three solo home runs in a 3-2 loss to the Dodgers. But the Giants aren’t playing the Dodgers today. DeSclafani had previously allowed just 4 HR’s in seven outings. He helped beat Arizona 13-7 on June 16th by allowing just two runs (one unearned) in 5 IP. He’s allowed three or fewer runs in each of the L5 starts. DeSclafani will be opposed today by Caleb Smith, who is still winless after seven starts. That’s not necessarily “his fault,” but that’s what happens when you pitch for a bad team and Arizona is most definitely a “bad team.” 10* San Francisco

10* Colorado (3:10 ET): The Rockies look to win the series today as they can make it three of four against the Cardinals. The only loss in this series was 9-3 on Friday, a highly misleading final, as the game went to extra innings after St. Louis tied it in the ninth. There was a grand slam in the 10th. Save for that, the Rockies have been playing well of late. I was on them when they won the opener of this series, 5-2, on Thursday. They won 3-2 last night thanks to a three-run blast by Trevor Story that broke a scoreless tie. It’s imperative that Colorado keeps winning these types of games, given the division they are in and the road record. 

Coors Field has always been a bit of a “sanctuary” for the Rockies. That’s really been the case in 2021. The team is a woeful 6-31 on the road this season and that’s a big reason why they aren’t going to be a playoff contender. Playing in the NL West also doesn’t help matters. You’ve got the three best teams in the National League (Dodgers, Giants, Padres) all in this division and the Rockies are just 8-17 against those teams. But they are basically .500 against everyone else and at home they’ve gone a strong 30-17. They are 6-1 as a favorite of -125 to -175 on the money (28-12 L3 seasons). 

Another reason to like Colorado here is the starting pitching matchup. German Marquez comes in with a 0.39 ERA and 0.348 WHIP his L3 starts. The Rockies have won all three games. Marquez has a 6-1 TSR at home with a 3.06 ERA and 1.129 WHIP. The Rockies have been getting really solid pitching of late (surprisingly!) as they’ve allowed two runs or less in five of the six games on the current home stand. It would have been six straight if not for the late inning debacle Friday. Carlos Martinez has not been giving St. Louis much in the way of quality starts of late. He has a 9.00 ERA and 2.143 WHIP his L3 starts. The Cards are 2-11 as road underdogs of +125 to +175 this year. 10* Colorado

8* Run Line Texas (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rangers +1.5. Perhaps this is a case of me being “too stubborn,” but I am determined to continue fading Seattle as they have overachieved in incredible fashion this year, thanks to going 19-7 in one-run games and 9-1 in extra innings. They have a -41 YTD run differential, yet are five games above .500. Last night was another extra innings win, 5-4, as they improved to 13-0 their L13 home games vs. Texas. Eventually, this madness must stop. Why not tonight? 

Now the Rangers have some obvious flaws, but Jordan Lyles isn’t one of them. Starting on Saturday, Lyles is looking to continue a strong stretch of performances where he’s lowered his ERA by two full points. He just threw seven strong innings against Kansas City on Sunday, allowing only one run to score. Three of his last four starts at home have seen Lyles allow only 1 ER. It’s not like Seattle is a good offensive team either. They rank last in the American League in both batting average and OBP. They are hitting only .208 for the season at home! 

This Mariners “magic” will run out. Mark my words. Run differential is too good a predictor of future outcomes for their not to be a downturn in the standings. Marco Gonzales hasn’t started in nearly two weeks due to being on the paternity list. He’s only made three starts since April 27th. With only three quality starts all season and a 5.10 ERA, Gonzales probably shouldn’t be trusted in this spot. Because Seattle has been so lucky in close games this year, I’ll grab the +1.5 but I do expect the Rangers to win. 8* Run Line Texas (+1.5)

10* Atlanta (8:35 ET): This has become a difficult series to handicap as each team’s best player is injured and we don't know (for sure) what their statuses are for Game 6. Giannis Antetokounmpo is currently listed as doubtful for Milwaukee while Trae Young is questionable for Atlanta. What we do know however is that when each team has stepped up without its star player, it has been at home. The Hawks have won 15 of their last 18 home games going back to the end of the regular season and facing elimination, they are my call here (minus the points). Consider it a bonus if Young suits up. 

Young is more likely to play than Antetokounmpo tonight, not just because of the severity of injuries, but also because Atlanta is trying to stay alive. But it must be pointed out that the team had its best shooting night in a while, minus Young, the last time they played here at home. They basically dominated the entire game and won by 22. That was with Antetokounmpo playing more than half. The Bucks got 100+ points from their starters in Game 5, but asking for that again is probably a case of “asking for too much.” The reserves only scoring 17 in the last game is cause for concern as they now have to go on the road. 

Atlanta had its best overall shooting night of the series in Game 4, then had its best three-point shooting night in Game 5. So they’ve proven they can take care of business without Young. The same can be said for Milwaukee w/o Giannis due to what happened in Game 5, but the fact the Hawks are back at home now is a big reason why I am on them. Also, they are 2-0 SU/ATS when trailing in the series during this postseason. Milwaukee has lost four of its last six games on the road. The Hawks have lost B2B games only two times in the playoffs. So look for them to force a Game 7. 10* Atlanta

10* Oakland (7:15 ET): Boston has won eight in a row, but three of the last five (last night included) have been by one run and I think it’s time the win streak ended. It very nearly did last night and some say it should have. Oakland had runners at the corners with nobody out in the bottom half of the 10th and looked poised to at least tie. But a runner was thrown out at home after a fly out and that effectively ended the game. With the pitching matchup in their favor tonight, look for the A’s to turn the tide. It speaks volumes that they are favored on the money line here.

Starter Cole Irvin is probably the main reason that the home team is favored in this one. He’s coming off an unbeaten June with three wins in five starts. The team was 5-0 in those five starts. He just threw eight shutout innings at San Francisco on Sunday, arguably his best outing of the season. I know that Boston has been hitting the ball well of late, but they had just six hits Friday and the majority of their lineup is not familiar with Irvin, a lefty. 

Garrett Richards beat the A’s back on May 13th when he threw six shutout innings. He then won his next start at Toronto. Ever since, he’s winless with a 6.75 ERA and 2.01 WHIP (seven starts). He has a 10.32 ERA his L3 starts. The fact that the Red Sox have managed to win four of his last five starts seems rather fortunate as Richards has allowed 23 runs in 21 ⅔ innings. Early in the season, it felt like Oakland was a team that was overachieving, but now it’s Boston that fits that bill. Time to fade. 10* Oakland

8* Under Cubs/Reds (4:10 ET): The Cubs lost for the seventh straight yesterday, 2-1 to the Reds. It was also the fifth time during the losing streak that they were held to 1 or 2 runs. Cincinnati has now won B2B games (both by 1 run) for the 1st time since 6/22-24. The teams are now separated by just one-half game in the NL Central and have identical YTD run differentials (-3). I look for today to be another low-scoring game at Great American Ballpark as four of the last six meetings between these clubs have seen six or fewer total runs scored. Take the Under. 

The Cubs come in with poor offensive numbers to begin with, particularly on the road where they are hitting a collective .214 and scoring only 3.7 rpg. As I said earlier, they’ve been in a real offensive slump and it actually extends beyond just the current seven-game slide. Since July 13th, they’ve been held to three runs or fewer a total of 14 times. That’s out of 17 games. So even though Tyler Mahle typically pitches better on the road than at home for the Reds, look for him to pitch well today against a struggling lineup. Over his last seven starts, Mahle has a 0.966 WHIP. 

Admittedly, the Reds’ offense is usually pretty good at home. But they haven’t topped five runs in any of their last four games and yesterday they could manage only four hits. They’ve also struck out 10 or more times in five of the last seven games. So Adbert Alzolay, who allowed a season-high in runs last time out, should bounce back Saturday afternoon. The last time Alzolay faced the Reds, he tossed 5 ⅔ scoreless innings and the Cubs won 1-0. He’ll need to be that good again considering the lack of run support he’s likely to get. 8* Under Cubs/Reds

6* England (3:00 ET): Underdogs have been on a great run of late here in Euro 2020, but I’m going with England to win inside of 90 minutes today. The Three Lions drew the best quarterfinal matchup as they’ll be facing a Ukraine side whose only normal time win in this tournament came against North Macedonia (the weakest of the 24 sides). It took the latest game-winning goal EVER in a Euro Cup competition for Ukraine to beat Sweden (who was down to 10 men)  in the Round of 16. Meanwhile, England has not conceded a single goal in this tournament. They are a pretty easy call to advance. 

It was 2-0 over Germany in the Round of 16 for England. Getting past an old nemesis should give the Three Lions some added confidence moving forward. Not that they needed the added confidence after giving up zero goals in four matches. They’ve allowed only 35 shots and the fact that the line for Ukraine goals sits at 0.5 (-125) pretty much tells you all you need to know about what to expect from them. Ukraine had only one quality shot at scoring pre-red card vs. Sweden and they converted. But that’s the only even strength goal they have in the last two matches. They have the 2nd fewest shots on goal among the eight quarter finalists. 

I even entertained the notion of laying the -1 ¼  on the goal line in this one, but opted for the three-way line just in case England only notches one goal here. I think there is potential for them to score multiple goals today, as they did vs. Germany. There’s too much talent on hand for Gareth Southgate for this team to have just four goals scored in four matches. Ukraine plays a similar style to Germany, only they aren’t as talented. They are easily the weakest team remaining and I can’t resist fading them in this spot. 6* England

10* Texas (10:05 ET): Seattle must be stopped! What do I mean by this? Well, they are a team currently four games over .500 despite a YTD run differential of -42. Certainly, that is a sign of overachieving. In fact, no team’s actual win total (43 in the case of Seattle) exceeds its expected win total (which is based on run differential) more so than the Mariners. For the record, the M’s expected win total is only 36. Throw in the fact that this team is off B2B wins as an underdog of +175 or higher (both over Toronto) and it’s time for a downturn in the Pacific Northwest. Even crazier is that oddsmakers have priced the M’s as just a 16-win team! (That’s how many games they have been favored in this season). 

Not only do we have an overachieving side in this AL West matchup, but the other team is going for revenge. Texas dropped all four games here in Seattle on Memorial Day Weekend. Two of those games were decided by one run. The Mariners have 18 one-run wins this season, most in MLB. They are also 8-1 in games decided in extra innings. That’s how they’ve been able to get above .500 despite such a poor YTD run differential. 

I’m not going to tell you Texas is a great ballclub, but they did just take two of three in Oakland. They’ve also got their best starter, Kyle Gibson, on the mound Friday. Gibson has a 2.00 ERA and 1.011 WHIP in 15 starts. The team is 10-5 in those 15 starts. His last start saw Gibson toss seven shutout innings of two-hit ball with a season-high 10 K’s. He’s allowed 3 ER or less in 14 consecutive starts! So look for him to outduel Seattle’s Logan Gilbert, who has a 6.38 ERA at home this year. The Mariners, who are not good offensively, hit just .207 at home. They are last in the AL in both batting average and OBP. Look for the Rangers to avenge what happened Memorial Day Weekend. 10* Texas

8* Under Astros/Indians (7:05 ET): I tried with the Under on this matchup last night and sadly playing after the line moved was costly. The O/U line opened at 9.0, but dropped to 8.5. In the end, Houston won 7-2. Most of the scoring occurred early and really the result was determined by one swing of the bat, that being a Jose Altuve grand slam. While that swing of the bat was not welcomed by me or the Indians, it certainly was for an Astros team that had just gotten swept by Baltimore (at home!) and scored three runs or less in five of their previous six games. But I wouldn’t expect Houston to go for that many again tonight. Take the Under again here. 

Cleveland is not a particularly good offensive team. They are 29th (next to last) in all of MLB in on base percentage. They scored only two runs yesterday and have just nine in their last 23 innings. This despite hitting four home runs (all solo) in one of the games Wednesday. In their last 10 games, they’ve had more than eight hits just once. Six of those games have seen them finish with six or fewer hits. So expect Lance McCullers Jr to pitch well tonight for Houston. It’s not like McCullers isn’t doing well enough on his own. He’s allowed 3 ER or fewer in nine consecutive outings. 

Now Sam Hentges did not pitch well his last time out for Cleveland. He gave up six runs in just three innings, a game the Tribe ended up losing 8-2. But Hentges had been fairly solid before that, including five shutout innings vs. Pittsburgh on 6/20. Houston is batting just .208 its L7 games. I do not think they’re going to be able to maintain a scoring average of 5.9 rpg on the road for a full season. So let’s go with the Under again tonight and hope there are no more grand slams. 8* Under Astros/Indians

10* Spain (12:00 ET): Two sides that required extra time to advance past the Round of 16 meet here in the quarterfinals with Spain taking on Switzerland. In the case of Spain, they blew a two-goal lead in the final six minutes of regulation against Croatia. But they still got through thanks to TWO extra time goals. It was a little different for Switzerland, who had to rally from a late two-goal deficit against France and then win on penalties. Despite how those two matches went down, I think Spain looked far better than Switzerland. Had La Roja simply finished things off inside of 90 minutes, we’d be looking at a much steeper price. I say take advantage of the discount. 

There seems to be a perception that Spain is underperforming here at Euro 2020, but I don’t think that’s really the case. They are #1 in possession (72%), goals scored (11) and expected goals scored (11.6). Perhaps it was the slow start to the tournament (just one goal in the first two matches) or it coming down to extra time vs. Croatia, but I think La Roja is being really undervalued here. They’ve scored 10 times in the L2 matches! They’ve had at least 2.4 expected goals in all four matches in the tournament. Crazy as it may sound, the highest scoring team in Euro 2020 should have even more goals to its name. As for the number of goals conceded last time out, not only did two come in the final six minutes but the first was an own goal. Those things should be “cleaned up” here. They’d conceded only once in the three group stage fixtures. 

Switzerland is in the quarterfinals of this tournament for the 1st time ever and that’s despite having just one win in normal time (against Turkey). Against France and Italy, there were 6.6 expected goals allowed and they were outshot 39-17. La Nati has not fared well in the past against Spain, winning only one time in the last 22 fixtures with 16 defeats. They won’t have Granit Xhaka for this one due to yellow card accumulation. He was the team leader in touches and passes completed in the tournament. I think the Swiss were quite lucky to defeat France. They won’t be so lucky here. 10* Spain

10* Colorado (8:40 ET): Both teams swept their last series. It was also a sweep the first time the Cardinals and Rockies faced off here in 2021. The Cardinals took all three games at Busch Stadium back in May, but as everyone knows the Rockies are a much better team at Coors Field. They’ve got the worst road record in all of MLB (6-31!) but are a very reputable 28-16 at home. So I like their chances at exacting some revenge in tonight’s series opener as St. Louis probably should not even be favored here. 

The Cardinals’ last nine games have been against the Tigers, Pirates and D’backs, three of the worst teams in baseball. Despite that, they went just 4-5 overall. Three of the four wins came in the last series, against a horrendous Arizona team that has now dropped 28 of its last 29 road games. If this game was taking place in St. Louis, it might be a different story, but starter Adam Wainwright has a 6.31 ERA on the road this season and we all know what the Rockies can do at the plate here in the thin air of Denver (5.8 rpg). 

St. Louis is just a game under .500, but they’ve actually been outscored this year by 42 runs. So their record probably should be a lot worse. Colorado’s YTD run differential is -53, not far off from St. Louis, but they are 13 games below .500.  I love the revenge angle and the home field advantage in this one, plus starter Antonio Senzatela has a solid 2.81 ERA his last eight starts at Coors. The Rockies really dominated Pittsburgh in the last series, shutting them out twice and outscoring them 16-2 in the three games. That’s a Pirates team that just took three of four from the Cardinals (in St. Louis). 10* Colorado

10* Under Hawks/Bucks (8:35 ET): This has become an incredibly difficult game - and series - to handicap with the unknown statuses of Trae Young and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Young missed Game 4, but it turns out that the Hawks did not need him as they shot 50% from the field and rolled to a 110-88 win. Things took a rather dramatic turn in the 3Q when Antetokounmpo went down with a knee injury and the Bucks never recovered. His status is more in doubt for Game 5 than is Young’s, but there’s a chance neither even plays. That’s a lot of missing offensive production for two teams that have already gone Under in three straight games. 

I was dead wrong about the Hawks going into Game 4. The numbers showed that their offensive efficiency went way down without Young, but they wound up turning in just their fifth 110+ point game of the playoffs. Lou Williams stepped up big time, but I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance from him. Clint Capella is also questionable for tonight and Bogdan Bogdanovic is dealing with a knee injury. On the road again, I just don’t see how Atlanta can match its offensive performance from the last game - even if Young were to return. 

The Antetokounmpo injury seems to loom largest though as there’s no replacing him for Milwaukee. It would be up to Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, both of whom are known to “step it up” at home. There’s no doubt (in my mind) that the Bucks are going to score more tonight than they did in Game 4, but it would still take a pretty substantial increase for this game to go Over the total. The Under is 10-4 for the Bucks in all playoff games while it’s 11-5 for the Hawks. So the teams have combined to go Under 70% of the time including each of the last three games. How about one more?  10* Under Hawks/Bucks

8* Over Mets/Braves (7:20 ET): I took the Over in Jacob deGrom’s last start and won as he allowed a season-high TWO runs against Philadelphia.  He figures to allow at least a couple today facing a Braves lineup that just put TWENTY on the board in yesterday’s game. That snapped a five-game Under streak for Atlanta and was the same number of runs they had scored in their previous seven games - combined. It was a bit of an aberration and obviously they probably won’t even score a quarter of that tonight. But I do like the Over again here as deGrom’s last three starts have all gone that way.

For what it’s worth, Atlanta does average 5.5 runs per game here at home. That’s top five in all of baseball. While they could muster only one hit the last time they saw deGrom (10 days ago), they only faced him for five innings. They ended up scoring two runs in the game. deGrom has lasted more than six innings only one time in his last nine starts. So the Braves figure to get a decent number of cracks against a Mets’ bullpen they hammered for 14 runs yesterday. The Mets’ bullpen ERA on the road this year is 5.11.

deGrom isn’t going to give up a ton of runs, but the ridiculous season that he’s having is likely to have a “speed bump” or two. Of course, the Mets could also help us out here by scoring more runs. They’ve been held to just 19 runs in the L7 games and it feels like they are due to breakout against Ian Anderson, who has seen the Over hit in six of his seven home starts this season. Braves’ home games average 10.3 rpg. The Over is 22-8-1 when the Mets are road favorites. 8* Over Mets/Braves

8* Under Padres/Reds (7:10 ET): Here’s a matchup I won last night by taking San Diego. They won 7-5 in a rain shortened game (called after six innings) and now have a chance to sweep the Reds for the second time in three weeks. They are 6-0 vs. Cincinnati in 2021, but interestingly enough are NOT favored to win tonight. This despite facing a starting pitcher with a 4-12 TSR. But Luis Castillo (the Reds’ starter in question) has been MUCH better of late and should help keep this game relatively low-scoring. 

With the teams combining for 12 runs in just 5 ⅓ innings last night, you may find it a bit curious to come back and take the Under the next day. But note those 12 runs came on just 12 hits. San Diego got a grand slam, which doesn’t happen every day, and that one swing of the bat accounted for the bulk of its runs. I mentioned earlier how Castillo has been much better of late. He held San Diego to three runs in six innings back on 6/20. He also has twice thrown seven scoreless innings in his L3 starts. His L5 starts have seen him allow a total of 6 ER. So look the other way when it comes to Castillo’s record. He’s pitching very well of late. 

San Diego’s Ryan Weathers has a 2.78 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in eight starts this season. The numbers get even better in his four starts on the road (2.30, 0.893). This will be his first start since June 7th as he’s taking the injured Dinelson Lamet’s spot in the rotation. Usually, you might not have a lot of confidence in a “fill-in” starter, but I like Weathers’ resume. The Reds have never faced him before and they hit just .228 off LH starters. Under is 33-16-4 in the Padres’ last 53 games when the total is 9.0 to 10.5. 8* Under Padres/Reds

8* Under Astros/Indians (7:10 ET): I won with the Under in the Astros’ game last night. I was right that Baltimore, who had scored 22 runs in the first two games of that series, would see its scoring decrease. It did as Houston held them to five runs (four of those coming in the first). That was more than I expected them to allow. Thankfully though, the ‘Stros only scored two of their own as their offense has gone dormant the last several games.. They’ve scored three runs or less in five of the last six games. I’m going with the Under again tonight as Cleveland is hardly a reputable offensive ballclub.

The Indians played a doubleheader yesterday and lost both games (here at home) to the Tigers. Their offense could manage only eight hits in the two games. I don’t really like their chances of doing much damage at the plate here against Framber Valdez, who has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season. Valdez has a 2.11 ERA and 0.991 WHIP in six starts. Going back to the end of last year, he hasn’t given up more than 3 ER in 11 straight starts. He allowed a season-high 3 ER last time out (at Detroit), but two of those came on one pitch. 

The Indians actually homered four times in the first game of the doubleheader yesterday, but all were solo shots. Rest assured they won’t be repeating that long-ball performance today. They only got runners in scoring position five times in the two games. This team is 29th (next to last) in all of MLB in OBP. As far as keeping Houston in check, Jean Carlos Mejia’s job as Cleveland’s starter may be easier than you think based on the Astros’ recent offensive slump. Also, Mejia is coming off his best start to date as he allowed only one run in six innings of work. 8* Under Astros/Indians

10* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): The Clippers lost their first three home playoff games (all to Dallas) before winning the next five. That streak came to an end in Game 4 of this series, a spot I faded them, as they lost an ugly 84-80 contest. But if nothing else, the Clippers have proven themselves resilient throughout this postseason. Everyone knows they are the first team in NBA Playoff history to overcome multiple 0-2 series deficits in the same postseason. Well, now they are trying to overcome a 3-1 series deficit against the Suns. They took the first step in doing so, winning Game 5 116-102 as a 5.5-point dog. After cashing them in that spot, I’ll take them again as they return home for Game 6. 

Phoenix is averaging just over 100 PPG (100.4 to be exact) in this series. That number gets a lot lower if you take out their 120-114 win in Game 1. As I mentioned in the Game 5 analysis, despite being down in the series, the Clippers have actually outscored the Suns. Their margin of victory in Game 3 (14 points) exceeded the combined margin of victory in Phoenix’s three wins (11). Now, after Game 5, the Clippers have actually outscored the Suns by a total of 17 points across the five games. Had they properly defended that out of bounds play at the end of Game 2, they would be the ones with a chance to move on to the NBA Finals tonight.

The Clippers are 8-3 ATS this postseason when trailing in the series. They are now 3-0 ATS when facing elimination. The Suns averaged just 88 PPG in the two prior games here in LA and has not scored more than 104 in any of the last four games. With Kawhi Leonard still out, both Paul George and Reggie Jackson have stepped up big time. For the Suns, Chris Paul has not been good since returning from his COVID-related absence. He’s 0 for 9 from three-point range in the L2 games. The Suns are just 2-10 ATS their L12 road games vs. the Clippers. 10* LA Clippers

10* Under Orioles/Astros (8:10 ET): Houston has been shocked by Baltimore each of the last two games, losing 9-7 and 13-3. They were massive favorites on the ML in both losses (-325 and -290). In each instance, the bullpen was to blame as that group has given up 18 of the 22 runs allowed in this series. So a strong effort is needed today from starter Luis Garcia and thankfully he has a 1.78 ERA and 0.991 WHIP at home this season. I’m going with the Under here as Baltimore won’t be scoring as many runs today, but the money line is still too high. 

Monday’s game really had no business going Over. It was 4-4 headed into the ninth, but then the Orioles went off for a five-run 9th followed by the Astros scoring three of their own. Yesterday saw the O’s homer four times and nine of their runs came in the final two innings. Playing 20 games in 20 days has obviously adversely affected Houston, but they can lean on Garcia tonight as he has allowed two runs or fewer in 10 of his 13 starts this season. 

Now Matt Harvey could be the “fly in the ointment” with this Under play as he is having a terrible year for Baltimore. But with Houston scoring three runs or fewer in four of its last five games, maybe this is the spot where Harvey steps up. He only allowed 3 ER in 5 ⅔ IP his last time out. Even if the Astros score five or six runs in this game, it still should stay Under as I just can’t see the Orioles going off again. They average only 3.9 runs per game on the road. 10* Under Orioles/Astros

7* San Diego (7:10 ET): The Padres are now 5-0 against the Reds this season following last night’s 5-4 victory. That was also San Diego’s 10th win in the last 11 games overall. Cincinnati’s lineup had no answers for the Padres’ bullpen which pitched four shutout innings last night. With Joe Musgrove starting on Wednesday, SD skipper Jayce Tingler likely won’t have to lean so hard on his relievers tonight. Musgrove, who tossed a no-hitter earlier this year, has a 2.47 ERA and 0.887 WHIP. 

Given his individual numbers, you’d expect Musgrove to have a better won-loss record than 4-6. But his TSR is 8-6 and that’s after B2B dominating efforts. The first came against the Reds, whom Musgrove held scoreless for seven innings on June 17th. Then he helped the Padres beat the Dodgers by allowing only one run on two hits last week. Sadly for Musgrove, he did not factor into either decision. He actually hasn’t won since May 19th, which seems grossly unfair. Needless to say, he’s overdue for a win here.

The Padres, despite being in third place in their own division, would be leading both the NL East and NL Central. They are without question the NL’s third best team. I’ve got them sixth overall in my own power ratings. Cincinnati is a pedestrian ballclub with a .500 record. Their bullpen is poor and they’ve allowed the third most runs in the National League. That’s a problem when facing the team that’s #2 in all of MLB in runs allowed per game. Reds’ starter Vladimir Gutierrez was roughed up by SD for five runs in his worst start of the year back on 6/19. 7* San Diego

6* Toronto (7:07 ET): The price is high on Toronto, but I am very confident that it is appropriate for this series against Seattle. I took the Blue Jays yesterday and they won 9-3. The Mariners scored all of their runs in one inning, on a France three-run HR. The Jays immediately answered with a pair of 3-run HRs of their own in the next two innings. As I talked about in yday’s analysis, these teams might have similar records, but the pricing shows who the oddsmakers believe is far better. Their belief is confirmed by Toronto having a +71 YTD run differential while Seattle has as a -49 YTD run differential. 

The Mariners are 41-39, but have an “expected” win total of 34 based on that aforementioned run differential. The gap between their actual and expected wins is the largest in all of MLB, at least from an overachieving standpoint. Meanwhile, Toronto also now has 41 wins, but they have an “expected” win total of 45 based on their run differential. Their gap is among the highest for underachievers. The Jays’ run differential is actually 4th best in the entire American League while Seattle’s is 5th worst. 

So what I’m saying is you should expect the home team to continue rolling in this series. They’ve won eight of nine and seven of those wins have been by three runs or greater. Steven Matz gets the starting nod on Wednesday, returning from the COVID-19 list. While Matz isn’t having his best season, he did pitch well the last time we saw him (6/12) in a 7-2 win over Boston. Justus Sheffield goes for Seattle and he is 0-3 his L3 starts with an 8.78 ERA and 1.95 WHIP. All three losses were to sub-.500 teams. Sheffield has allowed eight home runs in his last four starts. 6* Toronto

10* Milwaukee (8:35 ET): This series could be “all over but the shouting” if Trae Young is unable to go for Atlanta. Young, who is easily the best player for Atlanta, sprained his ankle near the end of the third quarter in Game 3 and was clearly affected by it. The Hawks were outscored 30-17 in the 4Q, which basically decided the game. An MRI revealed Young has a bone bruise in his right foot. His status for tonight is questionable and while I’m sure he’s going to want to go, just how effective can he be? Even with improved 3-point shooting in Game 3, the Hawks still lost by double digits. Lay the points here. 

Obviously, you have to be careful NOT to overreact to an injury. But it’s difficult to overstate what a loss Young would be for the Hawks. This is not like the Clippers, who have Paul George to “pick up the slack” without Kawhi Leonard. Even if he does play, will Young be able to attack with his patented “floaters?” Or will he be relegated to being a jump shooter? He’s had some dreadful shooting nights in these playoffs, including Game 2 of this series. Milwaukee is a very good defensive team as they’ve allowed just 102.4 PPG in the playoffs. Over its last five games, all with Young, Atlanta has topped 103 just once. 

The Hawks have not been favored to win a game since Game 4 of the first round. So it’s impressive enough that they’ve got this far. I did take them in both Games 1 and 3 of this series (got a win and a loss there), but my feeling now is that their run is likely over and this series is probably ending in five games. Atlanta’s three-point shooting had been really bad for several games before improving on Sunday. But with Young injured and possibly out, it’s going to decline greatly. Believe it or not, but this is the first time the Bucks are ahead in a series since the first round. They went 3-0 ATS vs. Miami once they grabbed the series lead. 10* MIlwaukee

10* Under Twins/White Sox (8:10 ET): Mother nature would not allow this series to begin as scheduled on Monday. So after a rainout, things get underway Tuesday with Lucas Giolito going for the White Sox and Kenta Maeda going for the Twins. This looks to be an outstanding pitching matchup as both guys are well rested. Giolito dominated the Twins the one time he faced them earlier in the year. He went eight innings and allowed just one run on two hits. He also had 11 strikeouts in the 2-1 win. Maeda is 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA in four career starts vs. the White Sox, all of which have been here in Chicago. Take the Under. 

Maeda has also made one previous start against the White Sox this year. In it, he allowed three runs and four hits over five innings. Not his best effort, but still pretty good. Last time out, Maeda allowed just two runs on five hits in 5 ⅓ IP. That makes it six straight starts from him where he allowed three or fewer runs. The White Sox have actually been struggling of late, losing seven of their last nine games. They’ve topped four runs just one time in that stretch. So look for Maeda to pitch well on Tuesday as it’s been nearly two weeks since Chicago had 10 or more hits in a game. 

The Twins are off B2B wins where they scored eight runs in both games. But we should see them cool off here against Giolito, who has allowed more than 3 ER in only four of his 15 starts this year. The Over is actually 3-0 in Giolito’s last three starts, but that’s mostly because of good run support. He has a 1.00 WHIP in those three starts, never factoring into a decision. The Under is 15-6-2 in the White Sox last 23 home games where they are allowing only 3.3 rpg this season. 10* Under Twins/White Sox

6* Toronto (7:07 ET): Should be an easy win today for the Blue Jays. When examining which teams are over and underperforming their expected win total (which is based on YTD run differential), these two teams come up. Seattle is a clear overachiever. They are somehow three games over .500 despite being outscored by 43 runs this season. The key for them has been a 7-1 record in extra innings and a MLB-high 18 one-run wins. The Mariners have an expected win total of 35 based on their run differential. So they are due for a downturn after winning 10 of the last 13 games. 

Meanwhile, Toronto should be doing better than they are. They have a YTD run differential of +65, which is better than first place Boston, but they trail the Red Sox by 6.5 games in the AL East. Based on that run differential, the Blue Jays should have 45 wins, not 40. So expect them to start surging. They come into this series having won seven of eight, thanks to facing Baltimore a bunch of times. 

Chris Flexen has admittedly looked sharp of late for Seattle. But Tuesday’s starter has not been good on the road this year with a 7.27 ERA and 1.629 WHIP. Despite those numbers, his team start record on the road is 4-1. So he’s been lucky. That luck runs out today, however. Pitching for Toronto will be Robbie Ray, who has better overall numbers than Flexen. Ray has allowed 3 ER or less in five consecutive starts and last time out he held Miami to one run in six innings. 6* Toronto

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): After being swept in San Diego and then no-hit by the Cubs, the Dodgers have started rolling again. They have won three in a row and now have a huge showdown with the first place Giants at Chavez Ravine. The home team is just 1-6 in head to head meetings this season, but that trend should stop Monday as the Dodgers are 26-13 at home this year and don’t want to miss on any opportunities to cut into the Giants’ three-game lead in the division.

I’ve got these teams rated 2 and 3 in my own power rankings. The Dodgers are one spot ahead (Houston is #1). Generally speaking, you don’t need an “excuse” to bet the Dodgers, but having Trevor Bauer on the hill only sweetens the pot. Now Bauer does have a 7-9 TSR this season, but that’s highly misleading and this is a great price to take him at home. He has a 4-1 TSR in LA, a 2.45 ERA and 0.818 WHIP. In his only previous start vs. San Francisco this year, he allowed just one run and two hits as the Dodgers won 2-1. 

The Giants being ahead of the Dodgers in the division is definitely a surprise. Anthony DeSclafani is even more surprising. He has a 0.43 ERA in his last three starts. But he had one start against the Dodgers this year was a disaster. He allowed 10 runs in 2 ⅔ innings. Don’t look for that to happen again tonight, but the Dodgers should get to him and take this series opener. 8* LA Dodgers

10* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): The Clippers have made a habit of climbing out of precarious positions this postseason, but the current one is the most precarious they have been in so far. An ugly 84-80 loss in Game 4 has them down 3-1 in this Western Conference Finals and facing elimination. Even though they’ve lost the first two games of all three series, the Clips have faced elimination just twice before. Those were Games 6 & 7 in the first round against Dallas and both saw them turn in outstanding efforts. Granted, they had Kawhi Leonard back then, but I think they’ve got enough left to at least still cover tonight. Take the points. 

Phoenix overcame some awful shooting, including 4 of 20 from 3-point range, to win Game 4. They are now hitting just over 25% from behind the arc over the L3 games. You might be fearful that they are “due” to improve, but the same could be said for the Clippers, who were even more dreadful in the last game. They made only 32.5% from the field and were 5 of 31 from three-point range. They also missed 11 free throws, which was killer. Considering LA was #1 in the league from three-point range in the regular season, I think their shooting is set to improve more in this game. 

Even though Phoenix has won three of the four games, they’ve actually been outscored over the course of the series! They’ve yet to win a game by more than six points. Considering that and just how low scoring the series has been, taking the points seems like a real prudent move here. This series could easily be 2-2 right now had the Clippers properly defended the out of bounds play at the end of Game 2. They are 7-3 ATS when behind in the series this postseason and this could be only the 4th time all season that they’ve been an underdog of 5.5 or more points. 10* LA Clippers

8* Run Line Chi Cubs (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Cubs +1.5. These are the top two teams in the NL Central and as it stands right now the Brewers have a three-game advantage. That’s mostly due to the events of this past weekend when the Brew Crew swept Colorado while the Cubs dropped three of four out in LA. I expect a reversal of fortune in this series, starting tonight and just to be “careful” I’ll grab the +1.5. 

The Cubs opened that Dodgers series with a no-hitter on Thursday, but could not score much after that, nor slow down the Dodgers. But they’ve got the “stopper” on the mound Monday in Kyle Hendricks. His team start record in his last eight starts is a perfect 8-0. He’s posted a 2.25 ERA during this career-best stretch and is now tied for the MLB lead in wins. Hendricks is also working on a 15 inning scoreless streak. Milwaukee is a weak offensive team and is actually dead last in all of baseball in team batting average (only hitting .210 at home!). This is a favorable matchup for Hendricks, who has allowed just 2 ER in 12 IP vs. the Brewers this season. 

Milwaukee starter Freddy Peralta has also been on fire of late. He’s allowed more than 3 ER only one time all season. He also has a 3-0 TSR against the Cubs with a 1.80 ERA and 25 strikeouts. But facing him for a FOURTH time, the Cubs hitters should have a better idea “what’s coming” tonight. Milwaukee is coming off B2B series against very easy opposition (Colorado, Arizona) so this will be the toughest team they’ve faced in a while. I have the Cubs higher in my own power ratings, so the +1.5 is a “no brainer.” 8* Run Line Chi Cubs (+1.5)

8* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): Two clubs that weren’t very good at avenging prior sweeps over the weekend hook it up in the Bronx this evening. The Angels did snap a five-game win streak Sunday by finally beating the Rays, 6-4. They had previously been 0-6 against the Rays this season. Also over the weekend, the Yankees were swept by the Red Sox for the second time this month. That put an end to a nice 7-2 run that the team was on. I expect them to take their frustrations out on the Halos Monday. 

The Yankees are now in fourth place in the AL East and the three teams ahead of them all have vastly superior run differentials. Needless to say, this was not expected. They hit well against Red Sox pitching, but not when it mattered most (3 for 18 w/ RISP) and they also struck out 30 times. Expect more favorable results at the plate tonight when they go up against Dylan Bundy, who is 1-7 this season with a 6.68 ERA. Bundy has not pitched well vs. NY in the past, going 2-6 with a 6.52 ERA in 13 appearances. 

Michael King gets the starting nod for the home team and while he’s still winless in five starts (2-3 TSR), I expect him to pitch well here. The Angels had been held to just 12 runs in five games before winning Sunday. The Yankees are 90-40 L130 games as a home favorite and 6-1 if they allowed 5+ runs in the previous game. They’ve won the last two times King has started and visiting teams are batting just .211 this season at Yankee Stadium. 8* NY Yankees

10* France (3:00 ET): Coming into Euro “2020,” everyone knew that Group F was going to be the toughest. It was reigning World Cup Champion France that won the “Group of Death,” although they did so with just five points. After opening with a win over Germany, Les Blues then drew with both Hungary and Portugal. It was the draw with Hungary that “raised some eyebrows,” but I don’t think there’s anything to worry about here heading into this Round of 16 clash with Switzerland. Look for France to wrap this up in 90 minutes + added time. 

I took Switzerland in their final group match, which ended up being a commanding 3-1 trouncing of Turkey. That win is what got them into the knockout stage. I took them while noting that it had really been an underwhelming start to the tournament with a 1-1 draw against Wales and a 3-0 loss to Italy. The Swiss are a top 13 ranked team in the world right now, but they are not in France’s class. One would have to go all the way back to a 1992 friendly to find the last time the Swiss defeated Les Blues. 

France remains unbeaten across their L10 competitions, so there’s no real reason for anyone to be “down” on this side. They were unbeaten in a tough draw. Switzerland, on the other hand, had the one good performance but getting clobbered by Italy and drawing Wales was not good. They have been knocked out in this round in the last two World Cups and the last Euro Cup. France is the best defensive team in the world and has conceded only once in this tournament excluding penalties. 10* France

10* Atlanta (8:35 ET): The Hawks are off a terrible loss in Game 2 as they were beaten by 34 points. It was 77-42 at halftime with the second quarter turning into a complete massacre as the Bucks outscored the Hawks 43-17. But now the Hawks get to come home where they have won 14 of their last 16 games. You’ve gotta think they’re shooting is going to improve as they made only 25% of their three-point shots in Milwaukee. Trae Young in particular is due for a bounce back as he went 1 for 8 behind the arc in Game 2. That was after he had 48 points in Game 1. Take the points in Game 3. 

No one on the Hawks scored more than 15 points in Game 2, which is really unbelievable when you think about it. It’s not just Young who I see “raising his game” tonight, but the supporting cast as well. Remember that role players often perform much better at home. There are four other double digit scorers on Atlanta besides Young (Collins, Bogdanovic, Gallinari, Huerter) and you should expect at least one of them to step up here. This team is 20-6 ATS its L26 home games and 3-1 ATS off a SU loss in the playoffs. 

Milwaukee shot 52.5% in Game 2 as they were able to consistently get better looks. But just as Atlanta’s production from its supporting cast should increase in this game, the Bucks’ supporting cast production should decrease. Friday was their highest scoring game in the postseason since Game 2 of the Miami series (Round 1). They never scored more than 108 in any of the four games at Brooklyn in Round 2. Jrue Holiday scored 55 points in the first two games of this series, an average he will not maintain moving forward, and most of Kris Middleton’s big games come at home. 10* Atlanta

10* Over A’s/Giants (4:05 ET): Thanks to extra innings, these teams combined to go Over the total on Saturday. The Giants won the game 6-5 (total was 8.0) and now go for the sweep on Sunday. They won 2-0 on Friday, so runs have been fairly hard to come by for both teams. Maybe that’s not all that surprising for the A’s, who don’t get to utilize the designated hitter in this interleague series. But the Giants average 5.1 runs per game at home and the Over is 12-4-1 here their L17 games vs. AL teams. Take the Over today. 

It’s a battle of southpaws on the mound Sunday, which often has me thinking the other way (Under) as many teams struggle against left-handed pitching. But not the Giants, who are scoring 5.2 rpg when facing a LH starter. They are 12-3-1 their L16 interleague games vs. a lefty. It will be Cole Irvin that they face today. Irvin has a 1.50 WHIP his L3 starts and he’s allowed four runs each of the last two starts, despite not making it through six innings either time. The Giants are averaging 7.4 rpg in their L9 contests. 

Sammy Long will go for San Francisco today. Long made his first ever big league start back last Sunday and it went well with him allowing only two runs and four hits in 6 IP. But the game vs. Philadelphia still (easily) went Over as it was an 11-2 win for the Giants. Oakland’s hitters are likely to test Long more than the Phillies did. The A’s have scored more runs this season on the road than at home and they are now 6-1 Over their last seven games at San Fran. 10* Over A’s/Giants

10* Netherlands (12:00 ET): I think a pretty clear case can be made that there were three dominant sides in the group stage. Those would be: Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands, all of whom won all three matches. In the case of the Netherlands, who I am taking here, there seems to be a pretty clear path to the semis. They’re obviously favored here and likely would be so against whomever prevails between Wales and Denmark. After a shaky first match here at Euro 2020 (3-2 win over Ukraine), Oranje blew past both Austria and North Macedonia by a combined score of 5-0. 

The Czech Republic got here by being one of the four best third place teams. They opened with a 2-0 win over Scotland and 1-1 draw with Croatia. But then, just like those two sides, they could not score against England in a 1-0 loss. Still, four points was another to get them here. But just two wins in their last six across all competitions is not exactly inspiring. 

Yes, the Netherlands had a weak group and all three matches were in Amsterdam. This will be the first time playing away from home in this tournament. But they are the in-form side here and favorites for a reason. They’ve also got some revenge to exact after losing the last two times they faced the Czech Republic. The new-look 3-4-1-2 set up certainly seems to be working and I’ll call for Oranje to head to the quarterfinals. 10* Netherlands

10* Phoenix (9:05 ET): The Clippers won Game 3 at home and hope a familiar pattern continues tonight as they look to even this Western Conference Finals up at two games apiece. As you know, the Clippers have lost the first two games of all three of their playoff series. In each of the previous two instances, they have battled back to win Games 3 and 4. In the case of the Utah series, they won four straight after being down 0-2. No team in NBA Playoff history had previously EVER won multiple series in the same postseason when falling behind 0-2. So the Clippers are really defying the odds and doing so without Kawhi Leonard makes it all the more impressive. 

But I think the pattern is going to be broken tonight by Phoenix. The Suns certainly won’t shoot as poorly here as they did in Game 3 when they made only 38.9% from the field, including 10 of 32 from three-point range. After missing the first two games due to quarantine, Chris Paul returned for the Suns in Game 3 and did not shoot well (5 for 19). Nor did Devin Booker, who was 5 of 21. Booker had 40 points in the Game 1 victory, but has struggled with his shot the L2 games. Do not be surprised if he has a big game tonight. The Suns are 6-3 ATS off a double-digit loss this season. 

With their shooting likely to improve from Game 3, hopefully we’ll also be seeing a typical effort from the Suns at the defensive end as well. In the playoffs, they have held the opposition to just 102.4 PPG on 42.9% shooting. That’s pretty impressive in the “modern NBA.” The potential loss of backup PG Cameron Payne is a bit of a concern, but the Clippers are reeling more when Leonard still out and Marcus Morris being listed as a “gametime decision.” LA has no answer for DeAndre Ayton inside and Paul George’s minutes are really starting to add up. Might fatigue become a factor for George? The Suns have lost B2B games only four times this season. 10* Phoenix

8* Run Line NY Yankees (7:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Yankees +1.5. It was a tough loss for me last night as I went big on the Yankees. They never led, but did answer Boston’s three-run first inning with three of their own in the top of the second. They also ended up out-hitting the Red Sox, 9-7. But they lost 5-3 and that is all that matters. Still though, I think all the necessary elements are present for the Yanks to bounce back and deliver a win tonight. 

Don’t forget it’s not just last night’s loss that the Yankees are looking to avenge here. They were also swept at home by the Red Sox earlier this month. Prior to these four straight losses, the Yankees had won 23 of 29 meetings against their bitter rivals. They are also 6-0 after allowing 5+ runs the previous game. Starter Jordan Montgomery has an 11-3 TSR this season, including 6-0 his L6 starts. He allowed just one run on three hits his last time out, a game NY won (2-1 against Oakland). 

Opposing Montgomery will be Nathan Eovaldi, who leads the Red Sox staff in wins (7). But Eovaldi hasn’t fared well in two of his previous three starts. He does hold a win over the Yankees this year, but has been shaky ever since, allowing 21 hits in 16 ⅓ IP. He gave up four runs to a bad Kansas City team in his last start. After playing well enough to win last night’s game, I just can’t see the Yankees doing any worse than a one run loss here. 8* Run Line NY Yankees (+1.5)

8* Run Line LA Angels (4:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am taking the Angels +1.5. Tampa Bay is off a couple of one-run victories, including 4-3 in last night’s series opener. They’ve won three in a row overall going back to when I took them on Wednesday (and they clobbered the Red Sox 8-2). With this win streak, they’ve regained the lead in the AL East (half game up on the Red Sox) and are undoubtedly one of the AL’s best teams this year. Meanwhile, the Angels seem to be fading with four straight losses. But I don’t think they’ll do any worse than a one-run loss tonight. 

Tonight’s starting pitching matchup is interesting as the Angels’ Alex Cobb has a 5-0 TSR his L5 starts while Tampa Bay’s Shane McClanahan has an 0-4 TSR his L4 starts. So there’s an edge to the underdog. Cobb hasn’t started in over a week. The last time we saw him was last Friday, when I took the Over as the Angels faced the Tigers. Cobb’s teammates scored 11 runs for him that day (so the Over won), but lost in that offensive outburst was the fact Cobb pitched very well, giving up only an unearned run over 5 ⅔ IP.

McClanahan is going to have to deal with the red hot Shohei Ohtani, who has homered in seven of his last nine games. Ohtani led off last night’s game with a HR and it went 453 feet. McClanahan has allowed at least one HR in each of those last four starts that the Rays have lost. The Angels had more total bases than the Rays did last night. The game ended up being decided by a HBP. Going into yday, Tampa Bay was hitting just .179 its L7 games and .219 for the year at home. The lack of offense will keep this one close (at least within one run) and I give the Angels a great shot at stealing it. 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5)

10* Over Phillies/Mets (4:10 ET): This may seem a bit crazy with the incomparable Jacob deGrom pitching today for the Mets. In what has been one of the greatest pitching efforts in MLB history, deGrom has allowed a TOTAL of FOUR earned runs all season (also three unearned). His 0.50 ERA would be a record. The last time deGrom allowed a run to score was May 25th. He’s working on a 27-inning scoreless streak coming into today. On top of deGrom pitching, these teams combined for just six runs total in yesterday’s doubleheader and both games went an extra inning (still only 8 inning games).

So the numbers definitely do not favor what I am picking here. But deGrom has been dealing with right shoulder soreness and that has limited him to just eight combined innings in his last two starts. Once he’s out of the game, the Phillies will have their chances to score runs. Interestingly enough, when the Phillies faced deGrom earlier this year, they were shutout for six innings. But after deGrom left, they rallied for a 5-3 win. With the total being this low, we don’t need a ton of runs from the Phillies today. 

Or maybe the Mets can send this one Over by themselves? They’ll be facing Zach Eflin, who has really struggled for the Phillies as of late. Eflin allowed seven runs in his last start, a game the Phils lost 11-2. Eflin has been particularly bad on the road where he has an ERA of 6.26. The Over is 9-4 in the Phillies’ last 13 road games with a total of 6.5 or lower. I really do think there’s a chance that the Mets can send this one Over themselves. But I also look for the Phillies to get on the board today as well. 10* Over Phillies/Mets

10* Over Nzechukwu/Marques (3:45 ET): This is a Light Heavyweight bout between Kennedy Nzechukwu (8-1, 2-1 in UFC) and Danilo Marques (11-2, 2-0 in UFC). It is scheduled for three rounds. The O/U line is set at 1.5 rounds and I don’t think it’s going to have much difficulty going Over. 

Nzechukwu has fought only one time since 2019. That was a second round knockout of Carlos Ulberg back in March. His previous two UFC both went to the third round and his only other win was a decision. He did lose his UFC debut to Paul Craig via submission. Only one of Nzechukwu’s last six fights have gone to the cards, but I think this one has the potential to do so. Nzechukwu is going to want to keep this fight standing and look to win by striking. But the opponent is going to have a much different gameplan. 

Marques is on a four-fight win streak and 2-0 in the UFC. Before making his UFC debut in September of 2020, Marques had fought very sparingly. He did not fight in 2019 and fought just once in 2018. The UFC debut, last September, was a decision win over Khadis Ibragimov. He then won by rear-naked choke late in Round 2 over Mike Rodriguez. That’s still past the halfway mark of Round 2, which is all we need here. Marques is going to look to get this fight to the ground. A clash of styles will lengthen this fight. 10* Over Nzechukwu/Marques

6* Italy (3:00 ET): This clearly looks to be the biggest mismatch in the entire Round of 16. Italy ran through the group stage, winning all three of its matches with a +7 goal differential. That was the best GD of any side in Euro 2020 and a continuation of an exceptional run of form by the Azzurri. Not only are they perfect here in Euro 2020, but they’ve won their last 11 matches across all competitions and are unbeaten in a record-tying 30 straight! After easily dispatching both Turkey and Switzerland by identical 3-0 scores, Italy beat Wales far worse than the 1-0 final would seem to indicate. Look for them to easily make it through to the quarterfinals.

Meanwhile, Austria is in the knockout round for the first time ever in the European Championship. They won twice in the group stage, defeating Ukraine and North Macedonia. But their 2-0 loss to the Netherlands doesn’t bode well for them here when the Austrians face an even taller task. Their draw to get to the knockout round seemed to be a relatively easy one as a win over North Macedonia was all but assured and then all that was needed was some positive result vs. Ukraine, which they got in a relatively sloppy affair.

Not only has Italy won their last 11 international matches, they have not conceded a single time during that win streak! That’s remarkable. I do not expect them to concede Saturday. While this match is in London, not Stadio Olimpico, Italy will still have the edge in fan support as the Austrian faithful are being discouraged from attending due to COVID-19 concerns. The Azzurri also have the edge in confidence, knowing no Italian side has lost to Austria since 1960 and they’ve won the last four tournament meetings. 6* Italy

7* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): I think that the White Sox are poised to do quite well for themselves in this series. Yes, they’ve been in a bit of a slump, losing five out of their last six. But four of those losses came to the Astros, who have absolutely been on fire of late. The White Sox snapped their losing streak with a 4-3 win at Pittsburgh on Wednesday and now face a Seattle club that has greatly overachieved in 2021. The Mariners are two games over .500, but certainly should NOT be considered a legit Wild Card contender. Not just because Houston & Oakland are in their division, but also because of a -48 YTD run differential. 

Chicago also has its #1 starter on the mound tonight in Carlos Rodon. The southpaw comes in with a 1.83 ERA and 0.842 WHIP after 12 starts and has been one of the top pitchers this year in the entire American League. On top of that, he’s 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA in four prior starts against Seattle. Yusei Kikuchi, another left-hander, is having a good month for Seattle. But he’s not in the same class as Rodon, plus the White Sox tend to “eat up” lefties, winning 27 of the last 39 games against them. 

Also notable with the White Sox recent losing skid was that none of those games were at home. They are 27-12 this season at Guaranteed Rate Field. As for Seattle, they are 13-33 as a road underdog of +175 to +250 the L3 seasons (about what you’d expect) including 3-9 in 2021. I look at Seattle’s run differential and just HAVE to believe they are headed for a nosedive. No team has exceeded its expected win total by a greater margin. The White Sox are a top 5 team in baseball and should win easily. 7* Chi White Sox

8* Under Mariners/White Sox (8:10 ET): I also like the Under in this game. Rodon is obviously a big reason for that. The Mariners are 29th in team batting average, last in on base percentage and 29th in OPS. So they are simply not going to score many runs tonight. Honestly, I would not be the least bit surprised if they get blanked. But with Kikuchi on the hill, they won’t give up a ton of runs either. Kikuchi has allowed 3 ER or fewer in nine straight starts and he’s given up just one run total in his last two outings. Both of those last two outings saw him go seven innings. This could easily end up being 3-0 Chicago. 8* Under Mariners/White Sox

8* Miami (7:10 ET): Let’s try this again. The Marlins’ struggles at the plate continued last night as they lost to Joe Ross and Washington 7-3. It was the seventh time in nine games that the Fish were held to three runs or less and in the case of last night, all three runs were scored in the bottom of the eighth (when they were already behind 7-0). It was also the fourth loss to the Nationals this season without a win. I still believe Miami is better and with a more favorable starting pitching matchup set for Friday, I’m going back to the home team again. 

Washington, specifically Kyle Schwarber, has had no problems hitting the ball of late. Schwarber homered twice last night, giving him 12 in his last 13 games. It was a three-run HR in the second inning that really dampened the mood in Miami. But Schwarber is likely to start cooling off. Miami’s bats are also due to start heating up. Interestingly enough, the two times in the last nine games that the Marlins did NOT score three runs or less, they scored 10 and 11. So they are certainly capable of a big night offensively. I think it comes here. 

Jon Lester starts for the Nats Friday. He’s been on a bit of a nice run, but hasn’t gone very deep into games. I see him being outdueled here by Pablo Lopez, who has been outstanding at home for Miami. Lopez has a 1.89 ERA and 0.944 WHIP in eight home starts and his WHIP is 0.778 the L3 starts overall. He is certainly deserving of a better TSR than 7-8, just like Miami is due a better overall record than 31-43 (they have a positive run differential). Throw in the way the line moved this morning and all signs point to the Marlins getting on track tonight. 8* Miami 

10* NY Yankees (7:10 ET): Big time revenge spot for the Yankees, who got swept by the rival Red Sox (in Yankees Stadium) earlier this month. This time, they are catching Boston off a very deflating loss. The Red Sox had a combined no-hit bid (multiple pitchers) going into the 8th inning last night in Tampa Bay, but ended up losing that game 1-0. Meanwhile, the Yankees won comfortably in the afternoon, beating the Royals 8-1. Revenge would seem to be in the air this weekend at Fenway Park and I think the Yanks gain a measure of it, starting with tonight’s series opener. 

Lost in the fact that Red Sox pitching hadn’t given up any hits going into the 8th last night was that they hadn’t scored any runs. That ended up being significant! They certainly can’t count on getting solid pitching tonight with Martin Perez on the mound. Perez has a 12.97 ERA and 2.521 WHIP in his last three starts. Boston has scored just two runs in its last two games. They’ve been held to three runs or less in four of the last six games. Certainly the Red Sox have been an early season surprise, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they ended up finishing 4th in the AL East. 

The Yankees have won seven of nine and will hand the baseball to Domingo German tonight. Like Perez, German has struggled recently. But he has better overall numbers than Perez. In fact, from 4/22 through 6/6, German allowed 3 ER or less in nine consecutive starts. One of those was against Boston, whom he held to one run and three hits over 5 ⅔ innings. The Yankees may have gotten swept earlier this year, but they’ve had the Red Sox number through the years, taking 23 of the last 29 head to head matchups. Boston is just 8-22 as a home underdog. 10* NY Yankees

8* Over Cubs/Dodgers (10:10 ET): The Cubs and Dodgers probably feel like they should be leading their respective divisions right now, but both have struggled of late. The Cubs had dropped six of eight before winning 7-1 in Cleveland on Tuesday. The Dodgers were just swept in San Diego. But I still like the future outlook for both teams. The Cubs are the only team in the NL Central with a positive YTD run differential. The Dodgers YTD run differential, while taking a hit in recent days, is still among the best in baseball. 

These teams have met before in 2021. The Cubs swept a three-game series where every game went Over the total. Rather than play the revenge angle here (odds are too steep), I’m looking for the Over trend to continue as the Dodgers should rediscover their offense now that they’re back in Chavez Ravine. They scored only seven runs the entire series vs. San Diego, but this is a team that averages 5.2 runs per game at home. I like the matchup against Cubs starter Zack Davies, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.767 WHIP on the road this year. Last time out, Davies allowed eight runs and that was at home. 

Davies will be opposed here by Walker Buehler. It would seem “fashionable” to expect Buehler not to give up many runs. After all, he’s been pretty “lights out” in June, especially the L3 starts. But when he started against the Cubs on 5/5, it ended up being a 6-5 game even with Buehler turning in a quality start. He figures to get plenty of run support this time, so as long as the Cubs score a few, this one should easily surpass the O/U line. 8* Over Cubs/Dodgers

8* 1st Half LA Clippers (9:05 ET): Please note that this is a first half play only. You’d be hard pressed to find a situation where a team is going to come out more motivated than when down 0-2 in the series and playing at home. That’s the situation the Clippers are in, once again. I made them my top play for the entire 2nd round when they faced this very situation against Utah. They won that game 132-106 and enjoyed a sizable halftime advantage. I also took them when they were down 0-2 in the Dallas series and they won that game 118-108. Not as confident this time about winning the game, but I definitely expect LA to be leading Phoenix at halftime tonight. 

This series could easily be tied 1-1, but Paul George missed a couple of late free throws (after the Clippers got a gift call) and then the Suns pulled off the miraculous out of bounds play to win Game 2. That was the ninth straight win for Phoenix, who is shooting better than 50% in the series. Even if Chris Paul plays tonight, I don’t see that kind of shooting from them tonight. The Clippers have shot well from three-point range in this series and I do see that continuing considering they were #1 in the league in 3PT % during the regular season. 

Since 2005, NBA home teams down 0-2 in the series and playing Game 3 at home have covered the first half line roughly two-thirds of the time. So history, not just their own, is on the Clippers side tonight. The fact they have fallen into their third straight 0-2 series hole is a little shocking, but I’ve got no doubt that they’re coming out hot early. They’ve actually trailed the Suns at the half each of the last four times they’ve faced them. But three of those four deficits were three points or smaller. 8* 1st Half LA Clippers

10* Over Suns/Clippers (9:05 ET): Down 0-2 (again!), the Clippers are going to come out desperate here in Game 3 at home. Expect them to lean heavily on the three-point shot as they’ve already attempted 81 in the first two games and made over 40%. That percentage might sound high, but this was the #1 three-point shooting team in the regular season at over 41%. So they’re actually “right on par.” This is a team that averages 116.4 PPG at home. In the last four home games, all wins, they’ve averaged 126.75 PPG. So look for this one to go Over the total. 

Phoenix has also shot the ball well in the first two games. They finished at a blistering 55.1% in Game 1, which I did not think they would match in Game 2. They didn’t, but still shot 50% from the field. One area where they did struggle though was from behind the three-point arc. They made just 6 of 26 attempts. Devin Booker saw his point total cut in half from Game 1 as he finished with only 20 points in Game 2 (on 5 of 16 shooting). I would expect an increase in points from Booker tonight and for the Suns to shoot better from three-point range. 

Chris Paul is now listed as probable for tonight after missing the first two games. Regardless if he plays or not, Paul’s backup (Cameron Payne) is probably going to do well. He had 29 points and nine assists in Game 2. If Paul does play here, Payne is likely to have a big game playing against the Clipper second unit. If Paul doesn’t suit up, well, Payne has already proven he can step up. Prior to stealing Game 2, the Suns had scored 113 or more points in seven straight games. They are 25-12-1 Over L38 games and this one should go Over as well. 10* Over Suns/Clippers

6* Houston (7:10 ET): This is the first of two “revenge” plays that I’ve got in this three-game report. Back in mid-April, one of the more shocking results of this entire MLB season took place as the Tigers swept the Astros in Houston. Given where the two teams are at now, that result makes little sense. Houston comes into tonight as the hottest team in all of baseball. They’ve won 10 in a row and have now outscored their opponents by 135 runs (#1 in MLB) this season. Detroit has won three in a row, but they are 10 games below .500 and have a -62 YTD run differential. The road team should win big today. 

Houston has outscored opponents 81-21 during their 10-game win streak. Four times they’ve scored 10 or more runs. One of those was last night, a 13-0 win in Baltimore. This is the highest scoring team in all of baseball and not only are they averaging 8.1 runs over the L10 games, but also 6.0 rpg on the road for the season. Certainly, the Astros have to be excited to face Jose Urena tonight. Urena has a 13.91 ERA and 2.364 WHIP his last three starts. The last two times Urena has started, the Tigers have lost 15-2 and 11-3. Urena was responsible for 15 of those 26 runs being scored despite pitching only six innings. 

As hot as Houston is at the plate right now, their pitching has been equally impressive. They’ve allowed just 2.1 rpg during the win streak and only one time have they allowed more than three runs. It will be Luis Garcia on the bump tonight and he has a 2.80 ERA. In his last start, Garcia faced the White Sox (a very good team) and held them to just one run in seven innings. He’s yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season. Over the L7 starts, you’re looking at a 2.01 ERA and 1.041 WHIP and Garcia has 1 ER or less five times. 6* Houston

10* Miami (7:10 ET): This is the other “revenge” spot in the three-pack. Miami was swept by Washington back in early May. It has been a very frustrating season for the Marlins when you consider they are in last place in the NL East despite having the division’s second best run differential. They’ve allowed just 13 runs in the L7 games, yet are somehow 2-5! They just dropped a couple home games vs. Toronto, by scores of 3-1 and 2-1, but armed with revenge against a division foe they should break through tonight. 

Washington has the best record in the National League over the L10 games at 9-1. They just won a couple games at Philadelphia, including 13-12 yesterday. Again, that’s almost the same number of runs that Miami pitching has allowed over the L7 games! Both wins in Philly were by one run and the Nationals now have four of those in the last nine games. So they’ve been far from dominant. This is a team that’s been outscored this season and is just 14-18 on the road. Starter Joe Ross has a 2-6 TSR on the road. 

Cody Poteet will look to keep the string of strong Miami pitching performances going on Thursday. He’s pitched only one time at home so far and he didn’t allow any runs. It was seven shutout innings of three hit ball vs. the Mets on 5/23. What the Nats did at the plate yday is not indicative of what you should expect from them. In their previous eight games, they were held to three runs or less five times. The only question mark here is the Marlins offense, but it shouldn’t take much to win this game. 10* Miami

8* Under Royals/Yankees (1:05 ET): These teams are wrapping up a three-game series Thursday afternoon. The Yankees are heavily favored to take today’s rubber match after prevailing 6-5 last night. It was 6-5 Kansas City in the opener. One thing that is quite interesting when looking at the Royals’ scoring in this series is that seven of their 11 runs have come in the eighth inning or later. For a Yankees bullpen that’s usually pretty good, it’s uncharacteristic for them to be giving up so many runs. Look for that to stop in this early afternoon start as this will be the lowest scoring game of the three in this series. Take the Under. 

Kansas City will hand the ball to Brad Keller, who admittedly has been struggling of late. He’s 0-3 with a 9.39 ERA/1.892 WHIP his L3 starts. But before that, he had gone 4-0 with a 3.62 ERA over a five-start stretch. So there’s definitely some inconsistency here, but I think we’ll be getting the “good Keller” today. The Yankees are only averaging 3.8 runs per game at home this season with a .224 team batting average. In day games, they are averaging only 3.0 rpg while hitting .208 and the Under is 19-10. 

Jameson Taillon, like Keller, is coming off a rough last few starts. But here he’ll be facing a lineup that produces an average of just 3.7 rpg on the road. Again, the Royals have produced a total of four runs in the first seven innings of the two games here in the Bronx. Taillon has been much better this season when pitching at home where he has a 3.29 ERA and 1.024 WHIP. 8* Under Royals/Yankees

10* Atlanta (8:35 ET): They were outscored by 20 points in the series, but the Hawks won in seven games against the 76ers to advance to just their second Conference Final in the last 50 years. Three of the four wins were by four points or less, two of them saw them rally from a deficit of at least 16 points. After coming out red hot in Game 1 at Philadelphia, the Hawks never really regained their shooting touch, which makes the series win all the more improbable. I realize that none of this sounds like a “ringing endorsement,” but I’ll call for Atlanta’s shooting to improve and for them to cover the spread in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. 

Just like Atlanta, Milwaukee needed to win a Game 7 on the road to get here. But the Bucks are now the favorites to win the NBA Championship after getting by Brooklyn and they’ve got the home court advantage. They’ve yet to lose a home game in the postseason (5-0 SU) and don’t forget they swept Miami in Round 1. However, the Hawks have traveled well in the playoffs, winning five of their seven road games against the Sixers and Knicks. I don’t think the one extra day of rest is going to matter much for Milwaukee. In fact, they are just 1-4-1 ATS their L6 games on 3+ days rest. 

The key for me here is that the Hawks’ shooting HAS to improve after what we saw in the last five games (42.9 FG%). That they won a Game 7 on the road while shooting 25.9% from three and their best player (Trae Young) going 5 for 23 overall was a minor miracle. This is a team that shoots 36.8% from 3-point range for the year. They’ve been below that average each of the L5 games, so they are due to regain their touch, Young in particular. Something that most don’t know is that the Hawks have the best SU record in the Eastern Conference (31-14) since Nate McMillan took over. Take the points. 10* Atlanta

8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): So the Rays lost to the Red Sox again yesterday. They are now 0-4 against their division rival in 2021 and trail them by 1.5 games in the standings. Yes, I had the Rays last night and it was their seventh straight loss overall. But I still believe they are the better team here. The game went into extra innings last night, so 9-5 is definitely a misleading final score. Boston did all of its scoring in two innings. So did Tampa Bay for that matter. But producing a five-run inning and four-run inning in the same game against this Rays pitching staff is hard to do and won’t happen again. I’m on TB for the second straight night. 

A big difference in last night’s game is that Boston was 6 for 10 with runners in scoring position while Tampa Bay was 3 for 17. That should correct itself tonight. Also, the news wasn’t all bad for the Rays on Tuesday as Walder Franco lived up to the hype in his big league debut, hitting a HR and a double. Speaking of misleading, the Red Sox have the division lead despite a +38 YTD run differential compared to the Rays’ +69. This is the worst stretch of the year for TB and they are due to turn things around. 

Rich Hill will look to play stopper tonight for the home team. The southpaw has a 0.983 WHIP in seven home starts this year. Hill is off B2B shaky outings (allowed 4 runs both times), but before that he’d allowed no more than 2 ER in eight consecutive starts. Boston 1-5 L6 vs. lefties. Going into yesterday, opponents were batting just .207 here at Tropicana Field. Garrett Richards somehow has a 3-0 TSR in his L3 starts for Boston despite a 6.91 ERA and 2.163 WHIP. He’s definitely due to lose just as TB is due to beat Boston. They Rays are 51-19 L70 as ML home favorites.  8* Tampa Bay

10* Under Astros/Orioles (7:05 ET): This series has pretty much gone as anticipated with Houston winning the first two games 10-2 and 3-1. I believe the series finale will be more like yesterday’s game in that it should be relatively low scoring. Obviously, the home team hasn’t done much scoring thus far. With just three runs in two games, the Orioles are “closing in” on being the AL’s lowest scoring team. They have lost 12 of their last 13 games and have scored three runs or fewer eight times in that stretch. Take the Under here.

Houston is baseball’s hottest team right now as they’ve won nine in a row. As I’d been predicting, they’ve overtaken Oakland in the AL West. The Astros +122 run differential is also baseball’s best. While a lot of that is due to being the highest scoring team in either league, don’t sleep on the fact that only three AL teams have allowed fewer runs. During this nine-game win streak, they allowed a total of 21 runs. In only one game did they allow more than three and that was when they allowed four on 6/16 vs. Texas. 

Jose Urquidy will start Wednesday for the Astros. He has a 1.00 WHIP in 12 starts, which is very good, and is coming off B2B quality starts. Urquidy has allowed three runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. So look for him to easily shut down Baltimore’s anemic lineup. The Orioles only had two hits on Monday and didn’t have any until the eighth inning last night. The only thing giving the Orioles hope here is Tom Eshelman, who looked decent enough in his first start of 2021. Last Friday he gave up just one run on three hits in a game the Orioles actually won 7-1. 10* Under Astros/Orioles

8* Seattle (10:10 ET): At first, I was a little bit leery of taking the Mariners. After all, this is a ballclub that’s clearly overachieved in 2021. Despite a -46 run differential, they are two games above .500. But a quick look at Colorado’s road record is more than enough to alleviate any apprehension I have about the home team here. There are some dreadful road records in baseball this season, but none are worse than Colorado’s absolutely pathetic 5-27 mark. Given how the money line has moved this morning, I’m taking the M’s. 

Seattle has won four straight, so they’re hot. I made the mistake of fading them both Saturday and Sunday against Tampa Bay. Both games did go to extra innings, which I guess is fine for the Mariners as they are 7-1 in games this year that go past the ninth. They also have a MLB-high 16 one-run victories. That stuff is what made me leery here. But the win streak coupled with having Chris Flexen on the mound is enough to convince me that they can easily defeat MLB’s worst road team. 

Flexen has a 9-3 TSR and has been good at home where his ERA and WHIP are 2.16 and 1.032. Last Tuesday, he threw eight scoreless innings against Minnesota, a game Seattle won 10-0. It was the second time in his last three starts at home that Flexen went 7+ innings and did not give up a run. Colorado’s Kyle Freeland has given up lots of runs as he has a 9.58 ERA in five starts. That ERA is even worse over the L3 starts (12.79) and he has a 2.447 WHIP to boot. Over the last three seasons, Freeland is 5-16 with a 6.16 ERA in 40 starts. 8* Seattle

8* Under Brewers/D’backs (9:40 ET): Arizona picked up a VERY rare win last night as they stunned Milwaukee 5-1. Not only did that victory partially avenge a four-game sweep they suffered out in Milwaukee earlier this month, it ended a heinous 17-game losing streak. How bad have things gotten in Arizona? Yesterday was their first win since June 1st. The team has won just six games since May 1st. They currently sit 32 games below .500 after losing 34 of their last 38 games. 

Given all of the above, we can’t possibly expect the D’backs to win two in a row. But I do like the Under Tuesday. Zac Gallen returned to the Arizona rotation last Thursday after missing five weeks with a forearm strain. You may recall that I took the Over in that game. Predictably, Gallen struggled in his first start back as he was facing the team with the best record in all of baseball. But I expect significant improvement here. Gallen is second on the staff in ERA and Milwaukee has the lowest team batting average in all of MLB (.212) while also ranking 29th in slugging and OPS. This is a much better matchup for Gallen. 

Because of that scuffling offense, I’m not particularly sold on the Brewers even as they are tied for the lead in their division. They have a negative run differential on the year. But I am sold on Tuesday’s starter Freddie Peralta, who is putting together a very solid 2021. His WHIP for the year is 0.822 and in three career starts vs. Arizona, he has a 0.87 ERA. Peralta has allowed 2 ER or less in seven consecutive starts. There’s been only one time all season that he’s allowed more than three. 8* Under Brewers/D’backs

8* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): I passed on Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals as both teams came in on ATS win streaks (Clippers 4-0 L4, Suns 7-0 L7) but minus big stars. I was also unsure on how to handicap the difference in rest. What ended up happening was the Suns winning 120-114 and just barely covering the four-point spread (thanks to last second free throws). After taking the “wait and see approach,” I’m fairly confident that Phoenix won’t be able to shoot 55.1% from the field again. So take the points as I don’t think the number should be higher here than it was for Game 1. 

The Clippers actually drained seven more threes compared to the Suns on Sunday. Typically that results in victory, but not for Ty Lue’s team as Phoenix was far better on its two-point attempts, going 36 of 57, which is a ridiculous 63.1%. Devin Booker had a massive game, scoring 40 points to go along with 13 rebounds and 11 assists. I’m pretty confident that Booker isn’t going to be that good again. The rest of the Suns team (sans Booker) attempted only two free throws in Game 1, which is odd. 

No Kawhi Leonard for the Clippers has meant Paul George stepping up. In the three game without Leonard, George has scored 37, 28 and 34 points. Remember that the Suns are playing without Chris Paul. The Clips are the first team in NBA history to win two series in the same postseason in which they lost the first two games. They don’t dare fall into an 0-2 hole for the third consecutive series. They’ve been good on the road so far, winning all three games in Dallas and then Game 5 in Utah. You have to think that Phoenix’s 8-0 ATS run is going to come to an end sooner rather than later. Take the points. 8* LA Clippers

10* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): This is a revenge spot for the Rays, who were swept up in Boston very early in the season. Despite that - and a current six-game losing streak - I believe TB to be the better of these two AL East clubs. As many of you already know, I lean heavily on run differential and in this area the Rays are significantly more dominant than the Red Sox. They have outscored opponents by 77 runs this season, fifth best in all of MLB, while Boston is only +34. Not only is that not the best run diff in the AL East, it’s actually third, also trailing Toronto. I think things set up well for a Tampa turnaround on Tuesday. 

It was certainly quite shocking to see the Rays get swept in a four-game series out in Seattle over the weekend. I consider them to be much better than the Mariners and even took them twice (Saturday & Sunday). Both times I took TB they ended up losing in extra innings. That was in addition to dropping the series opener by one run when Seattle scored two in the bottom of the ninth. The good news though is that Boston didn’t do much better over the weekend, dropping two of three in Kansas City. So it’s only a one-half game deficit that the Rays face coming into this big series. 

The big news on Tuesday is that Wander Franco, MLB.com’s #1 rated prospect, is set to make his big league debut for the Rays. Look for Franco to have an immediate impact on a lineup that has been struggling of late. He hit .315 this year down in Durham and .332 across his entire career in the minors. Eduardo Rodriguez is the starter for Boston and while the Red Sox are 3-0 his L3 starts, Rodriguez has posted an 8.36 ERA and 1.571 WHIP. He actually hasn’t won a decision since May 7th and has allowed 4+ runs in 6 of his L7 starts. His 5.44 career ERA vs. Tampa is his third highest vs. any AL opponent. For the Rays, expect the duo of Andrew Kittredge (likely opener) and Ryan Yarbrough to get the job done. 10* Tampa Bay

10* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): Move over Red Sox-Yankees. This is now the preeminent rivalry in all of MLB. The Dodgers, though in second place in the division, are still the #1 team in the entire National League in my power ratings. The Padres aren’t too far behind, but they are behind. Four of the previous five head to head meetings have been won by San Diego, but three of those wins came by one run. I see this as a TREMENDOUS price on LA as it’s the first time all season that they are underdogs on the money line. Go and take them.

The Dodgers got to play Arizona this weekend and to the surprise of no one, that ended up being a three-game sweep. They only won by one run yesterday, but it marked the second straight game they scored nine runs. The team has a +103 run differential on the year, which is 2nd best in MLB (Houston). I like that Julio Urias is starting Monday and he has a 0.767 WHIP on the road where he’s gone 6-1 this season. The team is 6-1 in his L7 starts overall as well. 

Yu Darvish goes here for San Diego. While his 11-3 TSR is among the best in baseball, profitability took a big hit with losses to the Cubs and Rockies in his last two starts. Both times he was -235 or higher on the ML. Urias’ numbers are very comparable to those of Darvish. Before they swept Cincinnati over the weekend, the Padres had dropped seven of eight games. I think the Dodgers are better and can’t pass them up at this price! 10* LA Dodgers

8* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): Cleveland avoided what would have been a very embarrassing sweep in Pittsburgh by winning 2-1 yesterday. In the last two series, the Tribe has faced the Pirates and the Orioles, arguably the two worst teams in the sport. They swept Baltimore, but the trek through the National League continues here with a visit to Wrigley Field. Obviously, any opponent would represent a “step up” in class after the last two series. But this one happens to be the best team in the NL Central and I see the Cubs gaining a measure of revenge for a pair of losses they suffered at Progressive Field last month. 

The Indians are 39-30 on the year, so they have a slightly better win percentage than the Cubs do. But the Tribe have overachieved to get there as they have a run differential of just +3. I don’t see this team, which has very little offensive firepower, even getting a Wild Card spot. The loss of the DH does them no favors as they’ve scored only five runs the previous two games. 

Due to injuries, the Indians’ starting rotation is somewhat in shambles. Aaron Civale is now the “de facto ace” with Shane Bieber on the DL. While Civale has the nice team start record (11-3), his individual numbers aren’t all that great. His strikeout rate (6.9 per nine innings) is “nothing to write home about” and the ERA and WHIP are fairly comparable to what Cubs starter Adbert Alzolay has produced despite a 5-6 TSR. Civale has allowed four or more runs in three of his last four outings. Alzolay hasn’t started in two weeks, so he’s obviously well rested. After being beaten up on Friday & Saturday, the Cubs came back and avoided the sweep themselves Sunday with a 2-0 win over Miami. They are now 25-12 at home this season. 8* Chi Cubs

10* Denmark (3:00 ET): Thus far, there have been only two instances of a Euro Cup side scoring the first goal and losing the match. The more recent instance was Portugal against Germany on Saturday. The other was Denmark vs. Belgium earlier in the week. It has been a cruel and unfortunate situation for the Danes at Euro 2020 with Christian Eriksen collapsing just before halftime of the first match. Truth be told, the team had no business finishing the match later in the day. They ended up suffering a shocking 1-0 defeat at the hands of Finland, then came the blown lead against Group B favorite Belgium. 

Despite opening with the two straight losses, Denmark still has a chance to progress to the knockout stage. But they MUST win this final match of the group stage against Russia. Eriksen visited the team during practice on Saturday and that should be an inspirational lift. If they were to win by two goals on Monday, which is not out of the realm of possibility, and Finland loses to Belgium (likely!) then Denmark would automatically qualify for the Round of 16. It would be foolish to write this team off, considering how they were expected to make it to the knockout stage. Against Belgium, the #1 ranked side in the world, they led for 53 minutes and dominated in shots. 

Russia has also lost to Belgium (3-0), but did beat Finland 1-0. They were really dominated by the Belgians and failed to impress against Finland, who had an early goal disallowed due to VAR. Prior to their match against Belgium, Denmark had conceded only two goals in six matches and they kept the favorites off the scoresheet in the first half. I think they are going to come out aggressive here and looking for goals. They are due for a breakthrough and what a story it would be if they moved on to the Round of 16. 10* Denmark

10* Philadelphia (8:05 ET): While it’s come down to a winner take all Game 7, I feel that the 76ers have largely dominated this series. I took them in Game 6, which they obviously won, and will reiterate much of what I said in that analysis. They’ve now outscored by Atlanta by 27 points over the course of six games. All three Hawks’ wins have been by four points or less (10 total) and in two of them they had to erase a deficit of 18 points of greater. Since losing Game 1, Philadelphia has shot better than 40% from three-point range. I will lay the points in Game 7 with what I feel is the better team. 

When I (successfully) played Atlanta in Game 1, a lot of my rationale had to do with the knee injury suffered by 76ers’ MVP candidate Joel Embiid. Well, save for a terrible second half in Game 4, Embiid has shown no ill-effects from that knee injury. He has been the best player in the series, averaging more than 30 points per game. In the three games here at home, Embiid has averaged 38.7 PPG, scoring at least 37 every time. He did not get to the free throw line much in Game 6 (only 4 attempts), but I expect that number to improve rather dramatically in Game 7. As a team, Philly shot just 40.9% on Friday, another number that should rise here. 

The last five games have seen the Hawks average only 104.8 PPG on 43.1% shooting. Sadly (for them), I do not see those numbers going up much in this game. Trae Young basically kept them in Game 6 all by himself, scoring more than a third of the team’s total points. With Game 7 being on the road, it’s less likely that his “supporting cast” steps up. Atlanta has a losing road record this year. De’Andre Hunter is a big loss at the defensive end. For Philadelphia, Ben Simmons is going to easily top his sorry six-point effort from the last game and the Sixers’ starting five is likely to attempt more than 14 total FTs as well. This series should already be over, but at least 76ers’ fans can now watch the clincher in person. 10* Philadelphia

10* Colombia (8:00 ET): Coming off a very disappointing 0-0 draw against undermanned Venezuela, Colombia should have a “take no prisoners” approach against Peru. A win here would put Colombia through to the quarterfinals as they were 1-0 winners over Ecuador in their Copa America opener last week. Meanwhile, Peru has played only one fixture and that was against Brazil. That went even worse than you’d expect as they were crushed 4-0. Look for La Tricolor to get the full three (points) here. 

Not being able to beat Venezuela was certainly disappointing, but the fact Colombia has yet to concede a single goal in this tournament is definitely an encouraging sign. The gap between the top two sides in Group A (Brazil, Colombia) and the bottom three (Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela) is thought to be rather large. Not taking full points for a second straight outing before facing Brazil is a position the Colombians don’t want to find themselves in and would really be considered unfathomable. They’ve won three straight against Peru, keeping a “clean sheet” in every match. 

Peru conceding four goals in the opening match puts them behind the 8-ball in terms of qualification for the quarterfinals. Their best path would be to simply defeat both Ecuador and Venezuela. So if things get out of hand early here, and I expect they will, look for the underdogs to simply throw in the towel. As for Colombia, they have every reason to want to finish in the top two of Group A as that would allow them to avoid Argentina and Uruguay in the quarters. 10* Colombia

8* Tampa Bay (4:05 ET): I said yesterday that I couldn’t see the Rays getting swept by the Mariners this weekend. Well, given that they lost Saturday’s game (6-5, in extra innings), I’m going to play the road team again as they look to avoid the sweep. The results of this series are certainly odd, given TB is one of the better teams in baseball (+77 run differential). But a season-high five-game losing skid has them now a half-game back of Boston in the AL East. It’s time for that streak to end. 

Seattle now has a winning record (37-36), but that’s quite misleading when you consider their YTD run differential is -50. The gap between their number of actual wins vs. expected wins (based on run differential) is the largest in all of MLB. What’s made them such a clear overachiever is their MLB-leading 16 one-run wins. They are also now 6-1 in extra inning games after Saturday. They were fortunate yesterday to get a second inning grand slam from J.P. Crawford. For the Rays, it was their third one-run loss in the last four games. 

It will be a battle of southpaws on the mound Sunday. Shane McClanahan goes for the Rays. He’s been a bit unfortunate this year in that 70 percent of the runs he’s allowed have come with two outs. The team was 5-1 in his first six starts before going 0-3 the L3. I think, like his team, McClanahan gets back on track today. Seattle has the lowest team batting average at home in all of MLB. Marco Gonzales is 0-2 for the Mariners since coming off the DL. He faces a Rays lineup averaging 5.7 rpg on the road. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Over Blue Jays/Orioles (1:05 ET): Toronto stormed back in the top of the ninth to “steal” one from Baltimore yesterday. The Jays were down 7-4 heading into the final frame and down to their final out when they exploded for a six-run rally. It’s been “that kind of year” for the Orioles, who have the worst record in the American League after dropping 9 of their last 10. It doesn’t figure to get any better on Sunday with Matt Harvey on the mound. Since May 7th, Harvey is 0-7 with a 12.00 ERA. 

So while Toronto needed to score late to get the win on Saturday, it’s very likely that they’ll be scoring in bunches early today. Harvey, who has failed to win any of his last eight starts, has given up five runs or more six of his last seven trips to the mound. It’s not like he’s lasting long either. The longest he’s gone during his winless streak is 4 ⅔ innings. He lasted a total of 6 ⅓ his L2 starts and allowed 13 runs. What’s really bad is that Harvey isn’t even giving up a ton of home runs. Everyone is just getting on base against him. He has a 2.391 WHIP his L7 starts. 

The good news for Baltimore is that they have scored seven runs in each of the first two games of this series. Their only win in the L10 games was the opener on Friday. The Orioles hit a season-high six home runs in yesterday’s game. Today, they face Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has a 6.11 ERA his L3 starts. While that’s mostly due to one poor start against Houston on 6/4, Ryu has allowed 5 HRs in those three starts. The Over has hit in four of his last five starts. 10* Over Blue Jays/Orioles

8* Switzerland (12:00 ET): Despite underperforming so far in the Group stage, Switzerland still has a strong chance of qualifying for the Round of 16 in the Euro Cup. But they have to win Sunday. An in-form side with six straight wins heading into Euro 2020, a draw and a loss is not what the Swiss faithful were expecting from the first two matches. There’s no shame in losing to Italy, who came is as the favorite to win Group A. But 3-0 was a terrible result for the 13th ranked team in the world. I expect Switzerland to bounce back here.

Turkey has been outscored by five goals in their two matches, both of which ended in defeat. They too were 3-0 losers to Italy, then came a 2-0 loss to Wales. With that kind of goal differential, odds are against Turkey qualifying for the Round of 16. Their only way in at this point is to be one of the four third place teams, but that goal differential which is currently the worst of all 24 sides in this Tournament is going to be a pesky problem. 

Switzerland has underperformed in previous Euro Cups, but this one was supposed to be different. They made the knockout stage five years ago and were unbeaten going back to November coming into the Championship. I’m willing to “throw away” the result vs. Italy and instead look to what happened vs. Wales when the Swizz controlled 62% of the possession. They scored first in that opening match and later thought they’d broken the 1-1 stalemate as Haris Seferovic put one in the back of the next in the 85th minute. But VAR (replay) reared its ugly head, leaving them with the draw. I expect them to get the full three points here. 8* Switzerland

10* Tampa Bay (10:10 ET): The Rays have now dropped two straight in Seattle and four straight overall. That’s odd, considering how they lead the AL East and are a top five team in my own personal power ratings. I can’t see them getting swept by a subpar Mariners team that has a -51 YTD run differential, yet is somehow staying “afloat” with a .500 record. Tampa Bay is typically one of the better road teams in all of baseball and I’m counting on them getting the job done today against what I feel is a clearly inferior foe.

Just to “back up” a bit, Thursday’s series opener saw Seattle rally for two run in the bottom of the ninth to take the game 6-5. That rally carried right over into yday where the M’s batted around in a four-run 1st inning. That hot start essentially decided the game, which ended up being a 5-1 final. The Rays offense really couldn’t get anything going against Yusei Kikuchi, but I see them being a lot more productive at the plate tonight vs. Logan Gilbert, who has a 6.32 ERA at home this season for the Mariners. Yes, Gilbert has a 4-0 TSR his L4 starts. But here he’s facing a team that going into yday was averaging a MLB-high 5.8 rpg on the road. 

Seattle’s hitters were very successful against the shift yesterday, which felt a bit lucky. Nine of the M’s 13 hits went to the opposite side of the field. Said Rays skipper Kevin Cash, “We probably got beat around by the shift about as much as I can recall in a long time.” I do not think that is going to happen again. First off, the Mariners’ team batting average at home this year is a woeful .203. Secondly, the Rays starter for Saturday (Josh Fleming) has a 0.953 WHIP in his five previous starts this season. Make no mistake about it, the Rays are the better team here. 10* Tampa Bay

10* Under Bucks/Nets (8:35 ET): The home team being 6-0 straight up in this series is what will get the “lion’s share” of attention heading into this Game 7 battle. But don’t discount what has been going on from an O/U perspective. The series has been far lower scoring than expected (remember these teams were 1-2 in scoring during the regular season) with five of the six games staying Under by double digits. The only Over was in Game 5 and that one barely got Over. The other games have stayed Under by 17, 27, 66 (a record), 25 and 17 points. I don’t think the O/U is low enough here. Take the Under.

This Game 7 being on the road does no favors for Milwaukee. Of their 29 losses this year, 19 have come on the road. They are 0-5 SU this year in Brooklyn, including 0-3 in this series. Those three losses have seen them average just over 100 PPG. Over the L5 games, they have averaged just 98.2 PPG. Khris Middleton really bailed the Bucks out with a 38-point effort in Game 6. But he has shot only 32.3% from the floor in the three games in Brooklyn. Middleton’s likely drop in scoring here is a real problem when you consider his teammates were a combined 2 of 25 from three-point range in the last game.

We all know about the Under trend with Game 7’s in the NBA Playoffs. Since 2002-03, the Under is 36-22 in all Game 7’s including 22-7 in Round 2 or later. With five of the previous games in this series staying Under by 17 or more points and three of them not even hitting 200, there’s only one way to play this Game 7. Compared to Game 6, Brooklyn will limit Milwaukee’s number of fast break points. I don’t think Kevin Durant and the Nets will “go off” though as they’ve averaged just 101.1 points the L5 games. James Harden has only 21 pts in the two games since he returned. Kyrie Irving will be missed. 10* Under Bucks/Nets

6* Over Martinez/Parisian (5:05 ET): Here’s a fight in the UFC’s Heavyweight Division, scheduled for three rounds. It takes place on the prelims. While it’s a couple of “big boys,” I fully expect this one to make it past the O/U line of 1.5 rounds and possibly even go to a decision. Roque Martinez is 15-7-2 overall, but 0-2 in the UFC. Josh Parisian is 13-4 overall and 0-1 in the UFC. With both fighters still looking for that first taste of victory in the UFC, I expect a cautious approach. Take the Over. 

Now to be fair, most Parisian fights don’t last very long. He’s a bit of a knockout artist, always looking to end things with one big shot. That served him well on the regional scene where he picked up six consecutive finishes, five of them coming in the first round, prior to his UFC debut. But that debut did not go well as he lost an ugly decision to Parker Porter back in November. That was a fight many expected Parisian to win. He didn’t and now it’s back to the drawing board. The level of competition is obviously greater in the UFC than on the regional scene and Parisian is about to be reminded that it’s not always about flashy finishes. 

Martinez has struggled in the UFC, suffering one-sided losses to Alexander Romanov and Don’Tale Mayes over the last year. He was submitted by Romanov, late in the second round, but did go the distance against Mayes, showing some durability. After a rocky start to his professional career, Martinez has been beaten only four times since 2013 and only one of those came in the first round. I think this one easily makes it past the halfway mark of Round 2. Others obviously agree based on the Over getting juiced up. 6* Over Martinez/Parisian

8* Lara Procopio (4:05 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Women’s Flyweight Division. We’ve got two prospects coming off wins. Procopio is 7-1 overall with a 1-1 record in the UFC. Casey O’Neill is unbeaten in her professional career (6-0) and is coming off a successful UFC debut where she downed Shana Dobson by second round TKO. While that was an impressive win for O’Neill, it was also a bit of a surprise and I can’t see her pulling B2B upsets. Look for Procopio to get her hand raised at the end of the bout.

While still undefeated, O’Neill didn’t exactly take on the stiffest of competition in her pre-UFC days. Three of the five wins were by decision. Dobson was the toughest matchup of her young career and she passed the test surprisingly well. But for a second straight fight, O’Neill finds herself matched with the toughest opponent to date. 

Procopio lost her UFC debut, but that was at bantamweight (and it was a split decision to boot). Dropping down to flyweight, she fared much better against Molly McCann in February, grinding out a decision victory. While it’s tough to judge someone who has fought just once since 2019, Procopio seems more fully developed as a fighter (compared to O’Neill) at this stage of the game. 8* Lara Procopio

8* Over A’s/Yankees (1:05 ET): It was a relatively low-scoring game between these teams yesterday as the A’s emerged victorious 5-3. That’s pretty much “par for the course” when A’s and Yanks hook up as, going back to 2019, the Under is 5-0 the L5 meetings. But it ISN’T “par for the course” from what we’ve seen from both clubs lately. Oakland had gone Over in five straight before yday’s win. The Yankees had gone Over in 8 of their last 10 games. I think we’ll see a higher scoring game Saturday afternoon. Take the Over.

Oakland continues to lead the AL West, although I have second place Houston #1 in my own personal power ratings right now. But there’s no denying that the A’s are hot, having won seven straight. That’s the longest active win streak in MLB right now. A big reason for the win streak is the bats. The A’s offense is averaging 6.3 rpg during the win streak, which is a very impressive number. Today they’ll face Domingo German, who just allowed 7 runs in his last start and that was against a NL lineup (no DH). In four career appearances vs. Oakland, German’s ERA is 6.05. 

The Yankees were coming off a three-game sweep of Toronto before losing yesterday. Eight of their last 11 games have seen 10 or more total runs scored. They’ll look to get back on track offensively here against Chris Bassitt, who admittedly has been pretty sharp in 2021. But Bassitt has never pitched at Yankees Stadium before and this is first time facing NY anywhere. His ERA is up over the L3 starts (4.32) as he’s allowed one HR in each outing. The A’s have won his L7 starts, but look for Bassitt not to be as sharp as usual Saturday. 8* Over A’s/Yankees

8* Over Jazz/Clippers (10:05 ET): Injuries have played a vital role in this series. Mike Conley has yet to suit up in the second round for Utah while Donovan Mitchell continues to deal with an ankle injury. Things are more serious for the Clippers, who have lost Serge Ibaka and Kawhi Leonard. But they were the ones to step up in Game 5 with a 119-111 upset (as 8-point underdogs) and one more win would mean they’re on to the Conference Finals, a place no Clippers team has even been before. Despite these key injuries, I still see Game 6 going Over the total. Every game in the series has seen at least 221 total points scored.

I learned my lesson taking the Under in the last game. It actually was still in play late in the 4th quarter despite the teams combining for 125 points in the first half and 175 through three quarters. But it ended up being the second highest scoring game of the series. Maybe the Clippers don’t shoot 51% again without Leonard, but this was the league’s top three-point shooting team in the regular season and they’ve been above 40% in each of the L3 games. They are now back at home where theoretically the role players should shoot better. Even without Leonard, I still see the Clips getting to 110 points.

Utah was the league’s 2nd best three-point shooting team in the regular season. They put up 54 attempts in Game 5 and made 20. While it was their most 3PA in any game in the series, they previously made 20 on just 39 attempts in Game 2. This is a team that has five scorers averaging at least 15 PPG. One of them (Conley) is out, but Mitchell is averaging over 30 PPG in the postseason and Bojan Bogdanovic made nine threes in the last game for 32 points. The Jazz average 115 PPG on the road and should get to that number here. They are 8-2 Over in all playoff games. 8* Over Jazz/Clippers

10* Over Tigers/Angels (9:38 ET): The home team took yesterday’s series opener by a score of 7-5. Scoring had actually been pretty tame until the 7th when Taylor Ward’s grand slam broke the game open. It was 7-1 at that point and while the Tigers were able to put four runs on the board in the final two innings, the rally ended up being futile. The loss snapped a three-game win streak for Detroit as they’d previously swept the Royals in KC. Meanwhile, the Angels snapped a three-game losing skid as they’d previously been swept out in Oakland. They are now 4-0 L4 home games. 

But the streak that I’m more concerned with here is the Angels having now gone Over in seven straight. During this time, they scored an average of 6.3 runs per game while also giving up 6.0. They are also 11-1 Over their L12 games. They’ve played six home games in that stretch and averaged 7.7 rpg in them. Facing the struggling Jose Urena tonight, the Angels production at the plate should continue. Urena has a 7.29 ERA and 1.783 WHIP his L3 starts and gave up eight runs while lasting only 1 ⅔ innings his last time out. It would be even better (for the Angels) if 3B Anthony Rendon returned to the lineup today. 

The Angels may need all the offense they can muster as Alex Cobb has been knocked around for five runs in each of his L2 starts. The Tigers come in having pounded out 10 or more hits in four consecutive games. The Over is 7-2 their last nine, so we’ve got both teams having been involved in plenty of high-scoring games of late. Neither bullpen is good either (something we saw last night). The Over is 46-19-2 in the Angels’ last 67 home games and 7-0 (anywhere) if they scored 5+ runs in their last game. Detroit is 6-0 Over its L6 vs. right-handed starters. 10* Over Tigers/Angels

8* Over Twins/Rangers (8:05 ET): Even with Jose Berrios starting today’s series opener, Minnesota ought not to be too confident. This club is grossly underachieving in 2021. Priced as a 43-win team, the Twins’ record is just 27-41 as they are one of the biggest disappointments in all of baseball. Back to Berrios, the team is 6-0 in his last six starts. But only a couple of those games have been low-scoring. In the four games since Berrios last pitched, the Twins have surrendered 10+ runs twice. Berrios has a 5.75 ERA in four previous starts vs. Texas. I see this one going Over the total.

Texas is glad to be back home as they’ve lost 19 of their last 20 road games. They are buried in last place in the AL West with a 25-43 record and considering how there’s already an 8.5-game gap between them and fourth place, expect this to be a cellar dweller for the rest of the season. Prior to yesterday’s off day, the Rangers dropped two in a row in Houston. The Over is 4-0-1 their L5 games, which includes a disastrous outing from tonight’s starter Mike Foltynewicz, who allowed eight runs in 2 ⅔ innings at Dodger Stadium last Friday. 

The Twins have allowed the most runs in the American League this season. So that’s some home for a Texas lineup that’s only topped four runs one time in its last nine games. I don’t see Berrios pitching as well as he did vs. Houston last Saturday where he allowed just two runs in 7 IP. He still gave up 2 HRs and five of his eight strikeouts came on called strikes. Minnesota, who also had Thursday off, beat Seattle 7-2 the last time they took the field. They are 17-3-1 Over their L21 after allowing two runs or less in the previous game. They are also 4-0 Over following an off day. Foltynewicz has been horrible for the Rangers with a 9.45 ERA and 1.799 WHIP his L3 starts. 8* Over Twins/Rangers

10* Philadelphia (7:35 ET): It is almost incomprehensible to me that the 76ers are now trailing in this series. They’ve outscored Atlanta by 22 points. They’ve shot better than 50 percent from the field (51.3% to be exact) in the five games, including 46 of 104 (44%) from three-point range in the last four. One could argue that the series should actually be over, or at the very least it should be Philly leading 3-2 headed into Friday’s Game 6. But after blowing leads of 18 and 26 points in the L2 games, the Sixers now face elimination for the first time in these playoffs. While the last loss was completely demoralizing, I think they will step up to the challenge. Lay the points.

Both Philly wins have been by 16 points while Atlanta’s three have been by 10 points … total! Not since a shockingly good Game 1 performance (where I took them) has Atlanta enjoyed a double digit advantage in any game in this series. The 76ers have been up double digits in each of the last four games! But none of that matters now after they shockingly blew a 72-46 lead (at home!) with just over 20 minutes to go in Game 5. The past two games have seen the Sixers shoot substantially better than the Hawks. But they’ve taken 26 fewer FG attempts and struggled from the FT line. That’s how you blow 18+ point leads in consecutive games.

The good news from Game 5 - if you’re a Philly fan - is that Joel Embiid had 37 points. That was a nice bounce back from his 0 for 12 effort in the second half of Game 4. Seth Curry helped Embiid out with 36 points, a career playoff-high. But the rest of the team totaled only 33 points. Expect that number to rise in Game 6. Atlanta is without its best defender, DeAndre Hunter, which is eventually going to catch up with them. I realize the Hawks have won 14 of their last 15 home games. But the 76ers easily could have won both Games 3 and 4 here. They are 10-3 ATS this season off a SU loss as a favorite. They’ll stay alive. 10* Philadelphia

10* Under Chile/Bolivia (5:00 ET): It was certainly an “ominous” road to the Copa America tournament, but here we are. Chile is likely thrilled to have shared the points with Argentina in a 1-1 draw in their opener. Meanwhile, Bolivia got buried by Paraguay 3-1 and is looking to bounce back here. I see a pretty low-scoring match taking place on Friday, much lower scoring than Bolivia’s first encounter as all three goals they conceded came after a red card. Chile will be without the lone player that scored for them against Argentina. I’m on the Under here. 

After a Lionel Messi free kick put Chile in an early 1-0 hole, Eduardo Vargas was able to equalize in the 57th minute, giving La Roja a key point. It was their third consecutive 1-1 draw across all competitions. Certainly, an argument could be made that Chile could have easily lost the opener as Argentina missed several scoring opportunities. But the good news here is that Bolivia lacks the firepower of Argentina. In addition to being without Jaume Cuellar, who drew the red card vs. Paraguay, five other Bolivian players are out due to COVID-19. 

Thus, I’d be surprised to see Chile concede at all on Friday. At the same time, I don’t see them rolling like Paraguay did in the second half against Bolivia. When these sides met earlier this month in World Cup Qualifying, it was another of those 1-1 draws for Chile. Bolivia has scored only four goals in its last five fixtures with Chile. La Roja is not only going to be without Vargas, their lone goal scorer from the first match, but also Alexis Sanchez as he’s been ruled out for the rest of the group stage. It’s tough to see where the goals come from in this one. 10* Under Chile/Bolivia

10* Sweden (9:00 AM ET): I think it’s fair to say that both of these sides walked away happy from their respective first Euro Cup matches. Slovakia beat Poland 2-1 to jump out to the early lead in Group E. But I was far more impressed with Sweden, who kept a clean sheet in a crucial draw with Group E favorite Spain. The winner on Friday will find themselves in GREAT shape when it comes to progressing on to the knockout stage and I think that’s going to be Sweden, who has won five of its last six across all competitions.

Slovakia definitely had some things go their way on the opening matchday. An “own goal” by Poland (18th minute) gave the Falcons the early 1-0 lead. Then after letting things get tied up, the match took a dramatic swing in the 62nd minute when Poland’s Grzegorz Krychowiak was sent off with a red card. Just seven minutes later, Slovakia got the game winner from Milan Skriniar. Such good fortune is unlikely to go their way again, so look for the Falcons to struggle to find the back of the net in this second match. They actually lost the possession battle to Poland. 

Sweden also lost the possession battle vs. Spain and certainly they could have conceded on multiple occasions. But they were able to hold on for the 0-0 draw and pick up a point. They are the better side here and deserve to be favored. Having failed to make the knockout stage of any Euro Cup since 2004, Sweden will be the more motivated side here. They’ve never lost to Slovakia in five all-time meetings (two wins, three draws) and while Slovakia is also unbeaten in their last six across all competitions, only two of those were wins. Going back further, Slovakia has only won twice inside of 90 minutes in their L13 chances. 10* Sweden

10* San Diego (8:40 ET): These two teams have been trending in different directions of late and surprisingly it’s Cincinnati that’s doing better. The Reds have won six in a row after sweeping both Colorado and Milwaukee. San Diego was just swept out in Colorado and is falling a bit off the pace in the rugged NL West. So this is a big weekend for the heavily hyped Padres and I see them coming through on Friday, led by starter Joe Musgrove. They are calling today “Re-Opening Day 2021” as it will be the first home game with full capacity this season. 

Back on May 29th, the Padres owned baseball’s best WL record. June has not been kind to them as they’ve gone 4-11 including the three straight losses out in Denver. But a return to Petco Park should help turn things around. Visiting teams average only 3.1 runs per game here while batting .199. Only two teams allow a fewer number of rpg than San Diego. Musgrove has a 2.82 ERA and 0.896 WHIP in 12 starts, so he definitely deserves better than a 6-6 TSR. He has the franchise’s first ever no-hitter to his credit already in 2021. In his L6 starts, his ERA is 1.91 and his WHIP is 0.818. 

Wade Miley goes tonight for Cincy and he too has thrown a no-no this season. His numbers are fairly comparable to Musgrove’s, but quite as good. Overall, the Reds’ pitching staff can’t compare to San Diego’s. They are one of eight teams allowing 5.0 or more runs per game. It’s a nice run that they are on, but the last two wins were both 2-1. The Padres are 11-5 vs. LH starters, so I like them against the southpaw Miley. 10* San Diego

10* Milwaukee (8:35 ET): With the Bucks leading 74-57 in the third quarter of Game 5, I was feeling pretty good about having laid the points. Then Kevin Durant struck. But as great as Durant was, that was a Milwaukee gag job. The Bucks now return home facing another potential early postseason exit. But I’m laying the points again. Brooklyn is 0-4 straight up in Milwaukee this season. Kyrie Irving is out. James Harden was ineffective Tuesday night. Durant, coming off perhaps his best game EVER, won’t be that good again. 

Lost in the virtuoso performance from Durant (1st player to EVER do 45-15-10 in a playoff game) is that Harden simply wasn’t very good in his surprise return to the lineup. He finished with just five points on 1 of 10 shooting, including 0 of 8 from three-point range. Both Durant and Harden played 46+ minutes with the former going the full 48. That was certainly a curious decision from HC Steve Nash. I understand leaving Durant in, given how hot he was. But playing a hobbled Harden that long seems unwise. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo was clearly outshined by Durant, but did turn in his third straight game with 30+ points and 10+ rebounds. He came up small down the stretch, but it shouldn’t have come to that as the Bucks were up double digits most of the game. At home, with the season on the line, the Bucks should start to see their shots falling more. They’ve averaged just 98.8 PPG this series, on 43% shooting. They averaged 120.1 PPG during the regular season. In particular, the three-point shots should start to fall. We started to see that in Game 5 (13 of 32) and I think it continues here. 10* Milwaukee

7* Atlanta (7:20 ET): St. Louis is coming off a three-game sweep of Miami. They are 6-0 against the Marlins this season, but below .500 against everyone else and a -27 YTD run differential doesn’t speak well to their future prospects of maintaining a winning record. Note the Cards scored just seven runs in that series with the Marlins and only nine the last five games overall. They won the L2 games in the final at-bat. I think this team is a lot worse than the overall record shows. 

Furthermore, Thursday’s starter John Gant has been REALLY shaky of late with a 9.25 ERA and 1.971 WHIP. Gant has had a high WHIP all season (currently 1.651) so his TSR has always been a bit of a mirage. He lasted only 1 ⅔ innings his last time out and gave up five runs. Don’t be fooled by the fact he allowed just one hit. He walked five batters. The start before that saw Gant allow seven runs in four innings. Atlanta is averaging a solid 5.4 runs per game at home, so they should do some damage at the plate tonight. 

Coming off B2B 10-8 losses to Boston, the Braves hand the baseball to Charlie Morton here. Facing St. Louis rather than the Red Sox is a break for Morton. I say that knowing full well that Morton has a poor career record vs the Cardinals. But there is the fact Atlanta scored 16 runs in B2B losses while St. Louis has scored just seven runs total in three straight wins. The Cardinals are 2-9 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +175. I like the Braves a lot in this spot. 7* Atlanta

8* Over D’backs/Giants (3:45 ET): San Francisco is looking to finish off a four-game sweep here. They’ve beaten Arizona by scores of 5-2, 9-8 and 13-7 thus far. There’s been an obvious increase in overall scoring each day and while that may not hold true again this afternoon, I still think this one goes Over the total. 

Arizona is absolutely atrocious. They’ve lost 22 straight road games, equaling a MLB record. So you know the hitters will be pressing today. It’s not just the road where this team struggles, however. They’ve lost 36 of their last 41 overall games, including 27 of the last 29. There's some optimism for today in that Zac Gallen, who is second on the team in ERA, returns to start Thursday’s game. But after missing more than a month, Gallen may not be as effective as he once was. I certainly see him giving up some runs to a SF lineup that is averaging 9 runs and 13 hits per game in this series.

Kevin Gausman has pretty much been “lights out” for the Giants this year. The righty is 7-1 in 13 starts with a 1.43 ERA and 0.771 WHIP. His numbers get even better at home and over his L3 starts. But Arizona has seen him before this year, back on May 25th, so expect them to fare better than they did that first time around. In day games, the D’backs are averaging 4.9 runs per game this season. But over the L6 games, they are allowing an average of 8.5 rpg! That alone would send this one Over the total. 8* Over D’backs/Giants

10* Under Clippers/Jazz (10:05 ET): Just as they did in Round 1, the Clippers have successfully erased a 0-2 series deficit. Although this time, they did so at home as opposed to on the road. Games 3 and 4 in Los Angeles saw the Clippers largely dominate throughout as they’ve now outscored the Jazz over the course of the four games. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have each gone for 30+ points in the L2 games. But will they be able to do so again now that the series moves back to Salt Lake City? I don’t think so. Donovan Mitchell, who has six straight 30+ point games for Utah, is also due to “cool off.”

So I’m looking Under in Game 5. Note that I had the 1st half Over in Game 4, which cashed, but the full game total stayed Under - just barely (1.5 points). Three-point shooting was good - for both teams - in the games in Los Angeles. Both teams made over 40% of their threes with the Clippers making 46.5%. Those percentages should start to come down. We’re also coming off a game that had a series-high 64 free throws. The previous high was Game 1 with 50 FTs. So count on a reduction there for Game 5.

Utah is 6-2 Under this season immediately following a double digit loss. That includes Game 4. Meanwhile, the Clippers are 6-1 Under following a double digit win. Again, Game 4 included. The Clippers are allowing just 107.4 PPG in the playoffs, which is basically right in line with their regular season average. Utah is much more sound defensively at home where they allow only 105.4 PPG. I think the vast majority of signs point to this game being lower-scoring than the last one, which means Under. 10* Under Clippers/Jazz

8* Under Orioles/Indians (7:10 ET): I had the Under when these two teams played last night. Most probably pushed (closing number was 9.0), but I was fortunate enough to get it at 9.5. I anticipate today’s game to be even lower-scoring. Cleveland got five of its seven runs last night in one inning. As per usual, there was an error involved with Baltimore. They’ve committed six in the two games here at Progressive Field thus far, including FOUR yesterday. That can’t continue even if the team’s road losing streak (now at 17 games) is likely to. 

The Orioles do have some hope though in that the Indians are not a great offensive ballclub. Seven runs is a lot for them and highly unlikely to be repeated. They had just five hits in Monday’s opener and rank 28th in all of MLB in both team batting average and on base percentage. Tonight, they face Keegan Akin, who blanked them for five innings in a 3-1 Baltimore win earlier this month. Akin has a 2.63 ERA in three starts this season, so look for him to give his team a chance here. 

But Baltimore scoring many runs off Indians’ starter Aaron Civale seems unlikely. First off, the Orioles have scored a grand total of 13 runs during an overall six-game losing streak. They have just 23 total hits during that same span. Civale just threw eight shutout frames vs. Seattle last Friday and gave up just one hit. He finished with 11 strikeouts. Four of his last five starts have stayed Under. (All three Akin starts have gone Under as well). The Under is 20-8-1 the L29 meetings between these teams, including 10-2 here in Cleveland. 8* Under Orioles/Indians

10* Miami (1:15 ET): The Marlins have yet to defeat the Cardinals in 2021. Last night’s 2-1 loss leaves them 0-5 in the head to head series. Both games in the current three-game series have seen the Fish blow an early lead and lose in low-scoring fashion. Today will mark the last opportunity to defeat St. Louis this season. As rough as things have been for Miami of late, I see them avoiding the sweep here. They’ve got the edge in today’s starting pitching matchup and that’s why they are favored. 

Three hits will typically NOT get the job done. That’s how many Miami had Tuesday night. Yet they were still tied 1-1 going into the bottom of the ninth, which is when Paul Goldschmidt hit a walk-off HR for the Cards. I do see the Marlins lineup “waking up” today, due to facing Johan Oviedo, who has struggled in his six starts this season. He has a 6.85 ERA and 1.648 WHIP. Most importantly, he has a 1-5 TSR. Oviedo has yet to pitch more than five innings in any 2021 start and is still winless in his big league career. 

St. Louis entered this series having dropped 11 of 13. Considering their -28 run differential, they should feel lucky to be a game over .500. Miami is nine games below .500, but has a run differential of +3. I know the Marlins have really struggled on the road as of late, but today’s starter Sandy Alacantara is someone they can lean on. He’s allowed 2 ER or less in 8 of his L10 starts and gone 6+ innings each of his last five trips to the mound. Honestly, Miami is the better team and has the better starter going Wednesday. 10* Miami

10* Milwaukee (8:35 ET): This series has changed dramatically over the past two games as we’ve gone from Brooklyn being up 2-0 to things being all squared away at two games apiece. Not only that, the Nets are now without the services of both James Harden (injured in Game 1) and Kyrie Irving (injured in Game 4). That changes the outlook on this Eastern Conference semifinal quite dramatically and oddsmakers now have the Bucks favored to take Game 5 in Brooklyn. I have no hesitation laying the points here as you have to remember that the Bucks actually went off as favorites here in Game 2 (when the Nets had Irving). 

Now Brooklyn dominated Game 2, making the line movement look foolish. But it’s a whole different ball game now without Harden and Irving. Truthfully, I thought Milwaukee might be the better team coming into this series. They held the Nets to 83 and 96 points the last two games and I certainly think they can do the job defensively on the road now that two of the Nets’ superstars are M.I.A. Remember that they led by as many as 21 in Game 3 and then pulled away in Game 4 once Irving went down. 

Kevin Durant is going to have to shoulder a huge load for Brooklyn tonight. The problem is he went only 9 for 25 from the floor in the last game as PJ Tucker did an excellent job of guarding him. No one besides Durant had more than 11 points for the Nets in Game 4 as they missed 23 of 33 three-point attempts. Meanwhile, Milwaukee seems to have rediscovered its shooting touch after making 16 of 47 3PA in Game 4. Yet they still haven’t hit their season average of 38% in any game in this series. That has to be scary for Brooklyn, especially considering how Kris Middleton has been heating up. 10* Milwaukee

9* Houston (8:10 ET): These teams have met seven times so far in 2021. The home team is 7-0. I expect that trend to continue Tuesday as the Astros look to avenge a three-game sweep that transpired up in Arlington last month. That sweep certainly surprised me as I consider Houston to be the class of the AL West. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again - just look at the respective run differentials for them and Oakland. It’s only a matter of time before the ‘Stros move into first place in their division.

Texas is in last place in the AL West and the gap between them and fourth place is already pretty big. They’re staring at a seven-game difference, which is the third largest gap between fourth and fifth place in any division. Since sweeping the Astros last month, they’ve dropped 14 of 17 overall. Like most bad teams, the Rangers really struggle on the road where they are 10-25 for the year. Even worse is how they’ve performed after a day off; 0-8 this season and 8-32 since the start of 2019. 

Kyle Gibson (4-0, 2.15 ERA, 1.005 WHIP) might give the Rangers some hope heading into this series opener, but Lance McCullers has been quite good for the Astros as well. McCullers has allowed 3 ER or less in six consecutive starts, two of them vs. Texas. He hasn’t pitched since facing the Rangers on 5/21 as he’ll be coming off the 10-day DL (shoulder discomfort). I think he’ll do just fine here against a lineup that’s failed to score more than four runs in six of its last seven games. Houston is off a dominant 14-3 win in Minnesota on Sunday (I had ‘em) and should easily avenge that prior sweep tonight. 9* Houston

10* Under Orioles/Indians (7:10 ET): The two starting pitchers for tonight may seem like “question marks” (as far as the Under is concerned), but the Orioles and Indians combined for only seven runs Monday. Cleveland won 4-3, thanks in part to a pair of Baltimore errors in the field. For the Orioles, the loss was nothing new. They are now 0-16 their L16 road games as this season has already started to get away from them. They are 22-43 overall, destined for last place in the division and I rate them as the worst team in the American League. 

Cleveland is seven games above .500 and second in the Central, although they do have a negative run differential. So I’m not sold on them, especially with an offense that ranks 28th in both batting average and OBP. They had only five hits yesterday. A three-run first inning saw them benefit from a wild pitch and HBP. They only scored in the sixth after two Orioles’ errors. Matt Harvey, who starts today for Baltimore, has struggled of late. But given the Indians’ season-long struggles at the plate, I give him a good shot at resembling the pitcher who produced a 3.60 ERA his first seven starts. 

Baltimore also had just five hits in Monday’s game. They have scored only 11 runs total in the past five games. So they are an ideal opponent for Cleveland, who had gone Over in six of seven coming into this series, to start going Under. The Tribe is also having to put together a patchwork starting rotation. That means Cal Quantrill is getting the nod Tuesday. He was roughed up badly by Baltimore on June 6th, but I expect him to pitch much better tonight. The Under is 36-17-1 the L54 meetings between these teams. 10* Under Orioles/Indians

10* Under France/Germany (3:00 ET): What a matchup we have here in the “Group of Death” as Euro Cup favorites France take on Germany in the opening matchday for Group F. Les Blues are considered the odds on favorite to win this event (+475), although coming out unscathed in a group that includes not only Germany, but Portugal as well, will prove difficult. I like the Under in the first match as France simply doesn’t concede many goals and this should be a supremely tightly contested affair. 

France was the runner-up in Euro 2016 and won the World Cup three years ago. So they are certainly justified as being the betting favorite for Euro 2020. One would have to go all the way back to the very 1st Euro Cup (in 1960) to find the only time France has dropped an opener in this event. Recent form has been very strong, including four consecutive clean sheets (shutouts). So Germany, who isn’t what they once were, has its work cut out for them on Tuesday. But don’t look for Die Mannschaft to concede many either here. 

The last World Cup saw Germany go out in the Group stage for the 1st time ever. But possibly forgotten is the fact France wasn’t all that prolific in the Group stage either as they tallied just four goals in three matches. Germany has never lost a Euro Cup opener and has big-time revenge here for five straight losses to Les Blues, including the 2016 semifinal. They will be content to play for a draw here. The problem is that I don’t see Germany scoring. 10* Under France/Germany

10* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): After exchanging 12-1 decisions with Texas on Friday & Saturday, the Dodgers ended up taking the series with a 5-3 win yesterday. They’ve now won five of their last six games. They may not have the best record, but for my money the defending World Series Champs remain the class of the NL. They have a +91 run differential for the season and yday’s win should not have been as close as it ended up being. The Dodgers had a 5-0 lead entering the ninth inning, but a rare bullpen breakdown turned it into a much closer affair than it needed to be.

Philadelphia comes in on a four-game win streak as they just took two from the Yankees, at home, over the weekend. The win streak has the Phillies a game above .500, but I don’t see this as a playoff caliber club by any means. An 11-19 road record is a big reason why I feel their chances of success tonight are rather dubious. This is their longest win streak since early May when they won five in a row. It’s a good time to “sell high” on the Phils right now as I simply believe they are outclassed in a matchup with the mighty Dodgers. 

Tony Gonsolin did not have a strong 2021 debut for LA. He got only five outs, though the team still ended up winning the game 2-1. He figures to get a decent amount of support here as the Dodgers average a solid 5.5 runs per game at home. Spencer Howard starts here for Philly. He’s made three starts so far, none of them going longer than four innings. So there’s a very strong likelihood that this one comes down to the bullpens. Despite what happened Sunday, the Dodgers are better in that area. Coming off a two-game sweep of the Yankees at home, this is a natural letdown spot for the Phillies and it doesn’t help that they’re facing the Dodgers. 10* LA Dodgers

10* Phoenix (8:05 ET): It appears to be “all over but the shouting” in this Western Conference semifinal as the Suns have the injury-plagued Nuggets outgunned and outclassed. Phoenix can end this series tonight and in the process win their seventh consecutive game. Since being down 2-1 in the first round series vs. the Lakers, a switch has seemingly “flipped” with this young team that I still think is being underrated. They had the second most wins in the regular season and are 6-0 ATS during the current win streak. I’m laying the points as the Suns should finish off the sweep Sunday. 

Remember that the Suns’ rise began in LY’s bubble when they went a perfect 8-0. Including that, they are 66-22 their L88 games overall! Chris Paul has taken control in this series, leading victories by 17, 25 and 14 points. That’s an average margin of victory of nearly 19 PPG. Keep in mind they also closed out the Lakers series with a pair of double digit wins, one of them coming by 30 points. The last five wins have all been by 13 points or more. They are allowing just 98.9 PPG in the playoffs! 

Denver hasn’t lost four in a row at any point this season, but that’s about to change. MVP Nikola Jokic just isn’t getting much help in this series. This just isn’t the same team without Jamal Murray. Campazzo, Morris and Rivers all overperformed against Portland, but that’s a bad defensive team. The Suns are playing lockdown defense right now. Even the return of Will Barton hasn’t meant much to the Nuggets’ cause. Over the L6 games, Phoenix has not allowed more than 105 points. 10* Phoenix

8* Under Nets/Bucks (3:05 ET): All three games in this series have gone Under. I think it’s fair to call that “surprising,” given that these were the two highest scoring teams in the league during the regular season. Of course, that meant the oddsmakers were going to post high totals for this series. The O/U line closed 235.5 or higher for each of the three games so far. But the last one really stands out. Game 3 stayed Under by 66 points, a record for the last 30 years of NBA Playoff action. Will there be more scoring Sunday? Obviously. But I don’t think there will be 60+ more pts scored. Take the Under. 

Milwaukee will be looking to even the series here after winning Game 3 86-83. They just barely failed to cover as 3.5-point favorites, which was upsetting to me as I laid the points. It is interesting how the line has shifted for Game 4 with Milwaukee now an underdog at home. I think the concern for them has to be the fact that other than Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kris Middleton, the rest of the team combined for 18 points and made just eight field goals in Game 3. Will that go up? Again, obviously. But the Bucks are also coming off B2B 86-point games. I just don’t see a “magic” return to the regular season average when so many players are shooting so poorly, especially from three-point range. 

Even Kevin Durant was only 11 of 28 from the floor in Game 3. Brooklyn is now 12-4 Under its L16 games against teams with winning records and all of them from here on out are going to fall into that situation. The most total points scored in any of the three games was 222 (Game 1) and that was with a blistering pace set in the first half. Again, I know the expectation is for a higher scoring game this afternoon, but making up the discrepancy between Game 3 and the O/U line here seems dicey. 8* Under Nets/Bucks

8* Houston (2:10 ET): I had the Under in this matchup last night. That it came in was not a surprise, but the Twins being the 5-2 winners did catch me a bit “off-guard.” As I’ve said many times previous to this (including in yday’s analysis), I fully expect Houston to overtake Oakland in the American League West. Just look at the respective run differentials! Only three teams in all of MLB have better YTD run differentials than the Astros (White Sox, Dodgers, Rays). So I’m calling for them to bounce back Sunday. 

Handing the baseball to Framber Valdez seems like a good idea seeing as he’s posted a 1.47 ERA and 0.873 WHIP thus far. It’s still a relatively small sample size, but considering the two teams he’s faced (Padres, Red Sox), those numbers are impressive. In four career regular season appearances vs. the Twins, Valdez has a 1.86 ERA. He also beat them in the playoffs last year when he threw five shutout innings of relief. The Astos are 3-0 off a loss in June, scoring 25 runs in the three games. So Valdez can probably count on some decent run support here as well. 

Michael Pineda will oppose Valdez on Sunday. He has a 5.06 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Astros. Minnesota has been especially bad off a win this season (just 9-15), so history REALLY supports the road team bouncing back today. The Twins have lost Pineda’s last two starts and he didn’t really give them much, going just 4 ⅓  and 3 innings. He had just three strikeouts in the two games. The Twins are 0-6 after allowing 2 runs or less. 8* Houston

10* England (9:00 AM ET): The first match from Group D is a rematch from the 2018 World Cup semis, a result that England will look to avenge here. The Three Lions have actually already somewhat avenged that crushing 2-1 defeat from three years ago with a win in the Nations League. But a win Sunday would be much bigger as England looks to snap an embarrassing opening match run here in the European Championships. They are winless in nine attempts to win their Euro Cup opener, a streak that I believe ends today as this is one of the best teams to come out of England in some time.

England is unbeaten in their six across all competitions and they were almost flawless in qualification for this event. I know there’s a general feeling that neither of the recent Int’l Friendly victories were all that inspiring, but they didn’t concede a single time against Austria or Romania. I think they’ll come out more aggressive here. There is a ton of firepower with this side. 

Croatia’s recent form has not been good as they have just two wins in their last six, including a 1-1 draw with Armenia and a 1-0 loss to Belgium this month. While England has yet to be successful in nine tries at winning the Euro Cup opener, they are unbeaten here at Wembley in all major tournaments. I think the home advantage is going to be huge here for The Three Lions as they look to take the full three points in this opening match. 10* England

10* Joanne Calderwood (8:40 ET): We’re dealing with a matchup of two top 10 flyweights here. Joanne Calderwood is 15-5 overall and 7-5 in UFC. Lauren Murphy has a similar record as she is 16-4 overall and 6-4 in the UFC. It is widely believed that the winner of this fight will go on to challenge champion Valentina Shevchenko in the future. So there’s a lot on the line in this one. I’m going with the favorite. 

Calderwood has knocked on the door of title contention before, only to suffer shocking losses two times. The first was against Maryna Moroz in 2015. After a shaky 2016, she’s rebounded by winning four of her last six fights. One of those two losses, last year’s submission at the hands of Jennifer Maia, proved critical however as she was again knocking on title contention. But then in January, she picked up a big win over Jessica Eye. When it comes to solidifying her status as the #1 contender, I think the third time is the charm. 

Murphy lost a couple close decisions early in her UFC career, but now comes in riding a four-fight win streak. It’s telling that she’s still the underdog. Like Calderwood, Murphy is a “bigger” flyweight, having moved down a class once this division was announced. While it may project as a fairly even matchup, Calderwood has the better resume and isn’t about to let another title opportunity slip away. 10* Joanne Calderwood

10* LA Clippers (8:35 ET): The Clippers are in an all-too familiar position here, that being down 0-2 in a best of seven series. The same thing happened in the first round against Dallas, although in that instance they lost the first two games at home. That series would become rather infamous for the road team capturing the first six games (1st time in NBA Playoff history). This one has been a bit more “traditional” with top seeded Utah winning the first two at home. The Clippers are now hoping it’s the home team that “rules the day” in Round 2 as the series shifts to Staples Center for the next two games. I’m laying the points in Game 3.

The last time the Clips played at home, it was the most important game of the season - Game 7 vs. Dallas. I took them and they delivered a 126-111 victory. Both games in Salt Lake City were close as they were decided by three and six points. Despite being down by 21 in the second half Thursday, Ty Lue’s team did come back and even took a brief lead in the 4Q. They also were up by double digits for most of the first half in Game 1. Though 0-2 ATS so far in this round, home teams down 0-2 in the series are typically sound bets. It would be foolish to write off the Clippers here.

Utah has won the first two games despite not having the services of Mike Conley. He’s questionable for tonight. On the road, Conley’s absence would loom larger. I seriously doubt the Jazz will shoot 55% again as they did in Game 2. They were also 20 of 39 (51.3%) from three-point range in Game 2. Again, the chances of replicating that kind of shooting on the road seem small. Donovan Mitchell HAS to cool off, right? I think it’s time for the Clippers to break out offensively in this one as their three-point shots will start to fall. 10* LA Clippers

10* Under Astros/Twins (7:15 ET): I continue to believe it’s just a “matter of time” before the Astros overtake the A’s in the AL West. Just look at those respective run differentials as Houston has outscored opponents by 78 runs this season (#3 in MLB) while Oakland is only +7. But for now, the ‘Stros only need to concern themselves with Minnesota, a team that has been surprisingly poor in 2021 and currently occupies last place in the AL Central. Houston won the opener Friday by a score of 6-4. I look for tonight’s game to be lower-scoring. Take the Under.

Given manager Dusty Baker’s comments, you might be surprised that the Astros came out ahead Friday. "Everybody was walking around starry-eyed early in the game," Baker said. "You could see they were fatigued.” Baker was referring to the fact his team did not arrive in Minnesota until the early hours of Friday morning after suffering a 12-8 loss to Boston on Thursday. But they’ve now won five of seven and have a hot pitcher on the mound tonight. Luis Garcia is 3-0 his L3 starts with a 0.95 ERA and 0.737 WHIP. All three have also gone Under the total. 

Minnesota also has a starter going tonight that has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts. Jose Berrios’ numbers aren’t quite as good as Garcia’s, but he actually has a 5-0 TSR going back to May 15th. Houston’s bats have been pretty hot the last week, but could cool off for the reasons Baker alluded to in the above comments. Twins’ games are also due for an overall decrease in scoring and I think we’ve got the right pitching matchup for it tonight. Garcia, like Berrios, also has a 5-0 TSR his L5 starts and his ERA during that time is 1.86. He’s allowed just six runs in 29 IP. 10* Under Astros/Twins