8* St. Louis (10:15 ET): The Padres got one over on me last night as they beat the Nats 2-1, thus avoiding a sweep. However, my read on the club overall has not changed. This was a team that was outscored by 212 runs a season ago, easily the worst margin in all of MLB. Thus a case could be made that they were actually FORTUNATE to even win 71 games. I think they're a lock for last place in the NL West this season and the basement is where they currently reside w/ a 14-24 mark. Only fellow last place teams in the Senior Circuit, Miami and Cincinnati, have worse records and run differentials.

St. Louis had Wednesday off, which was well needed. They'd just been swept, at home, in a short two-game set by the Twins. Yet, the Redbirds remain in first place in the NL Central w/ a 20-14 mark. Dropping both games to Minnesota was as surprising as it was disappointing, especially considering how they were dominated (outscored 13-1 and managed only six hits). But I really like their chances to bounce back, not only tonight, but in this entire series, against a far lesser opponent.

It starts w/ Miles Mikolas being on the hill. He's unbeaten in six starts this year for the Cardinals (4-0) w/ a 2.70 ERA and a 0.975 WHIP. Last time out, he threw seven shutout innings agianst the Cubs. He's allowed just four runs total in his last four starts, which have spanned 28 innings total (gone seven innings each time). San Diego is a weak-hitting team (.226 BA), so I see Mikolas having little difficulty here. Also, it should be pointed out that going into yday's game, the Padres were being outscored by 1.7 rpg here at home! They send Jordan Lyles to the mound for the first time in 2018 tonight. Lyles, who has made 13 relief appearances this season, is only starting due to the ineffectiveness of Bryan Mitchell. Lyles has started before, but w/ little success. He's 0-3 all-time pitching at Petco Park (16 appearances) w/ a 4.91 ERA. He's also allowed eight runs and issued seven walks in 19 total IP this season. 8* St. Louis

8* Nashville (8:05 ET): Home ice hasn't mattered in the last three games of this series as the road team has won every time. But I believe it will here as the Predators get to play host for the winner take all Game 7. Winnipeg, who had the best home record in the league during the regular season, blew a golden opportunity to close out this series when they lost 4-0 in Game 6 Monday night. They did outshoot the Preds (34-29), but couldn't solve Pekka Rinne, who delivered his second shutout of this postseason. While neither side has been able to win consecutive games in this series, I look for the Preds to break that streak as I just can't see them losing Game 7 at home. 

Nashville has had three games in the series w/ at least 40 shots on goal. Not coincidentally, all three were at home. This is a team that went 28-9-4 SU in the regular season at Bridgestone Arena and pretty easily won its first two playoff home games (against the Colorado Avalanche). But they've shockingly dropped three of four on home ice since, the only win coming in overtime (Game 2 of this series). Again, as good as this team is (most points in the the regular season), I just can't see them losing on home ice again. Perhaps the most important factor going into tonight's Game 7 is experience. The Preds' roster has a combined 45 games of Game 7 experience while the younger Jets have only 12. While this is the first Game 7 Nashville has ever played at home, it's Winnipeg's first Game 7 since relocating from Atlanta in the 2010-11 season. 

The Jets have gone 4-1 on the road this postseason, but were below .500 in the regular season. They have outscored the Preds in the series and had more shots on goal, but it's going to be awfully tough to beat Rinne, who has a 28-11 SU record at home this season. Going 0 for 4 on the power play was a real killer in Game 6 and just feels like a blown opportunity. They had just four shots total w/ the man advantage. Three of those PP's came in the first period when it was still a 1-0 game. Goalie Connor Hellebuyck finished w/ just 25 saves, his lowest number for any game in the playoffs. Consider this: Winnipeg is just 1-5 SU following a home loss by three or more goals. 8* Nashville

10* Philadelphia (1:05 ET): The Phillies have absolutely dominated this series, outscoring the Giants 26-5, and go for the sweep Thursday afternoon w/ Vincent Velasquez on the hill. They rolled to victory last night, 11-3, behind seven scoreless innings from starter Nick Pivetta. Carlos Santana supplied the offense w/ three hits and five RBIs as the Phils improved to 14-5 at Citizens Bank Park. What's really remarkable is that they are outscoring teams by well over two full runs per game here. Given how this series has gone so far, I'm calling for the Phillies to finish off the sweep.

From the Giants perspective, this has obviously been a terribly disappointing series. Not only the way they have been dominated, but also because they came in fresh off sweeping the previously red-hot Braves in Atlanta. They've scored just five runs total in the series and that's actually pretty par for the course for visiting teams in this ballpark. Phillies' pitching is holding opponents to a .216 batting average at home so far this season. That makes today a tall order for San Fran starter Ty Blach. While Blach has allowed 3 ER or fewer in each of his last six starts, his strikeout numbers are unimpressive and his WHIP is still 1.378 for the season. The Giants' offense is barely averaging 3.0 rpg for the season on the road. 

Velasquez will try and keep the string of strong starting Phillies pitching efforts intact. So far this season, Velasquez has been rather feast or famine as he's allowed 1 ER three times, but 4+ ER three times as well. He's coming off one of his stronger efforts to date as he held Washington to just one hit over 5 IP (that one hit was a solo HR). Given how Philly has performed at home so far, the offense should be able to pick Velasquez up even if he's not that effective here today. The Phillies are averaging 5.5 rpg at home for the season. The team is 7-2 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 and I'll call for them to win again in that price range. 10* Philadelphia

10* Washington (9:10 ET): Irregardless of what transpires between these teams on Tuesday night, I'm backing the Nationals at this price in Wednesday's finale. I had them in Monday's opener as well and a power-surge (no pun intended!) led them to an 8-5 victory at Petco Park. The Nats homered three times in the game, accounting for five runs, and that was more than enough for starter Stephen Strasburg, who allowed just three runs in seven workman-like innings. Though you look at where the Nats currently are in the NL East standings (4th) and can't help but be disappointed, note that the team heads into Tuesday having outscored its opposition by 26 runs so far. San Diego, who I have little regard for, is sitting in last place in the NL West w/ a run differential of -41.

Gio Gonzalez will make his eighth start of the season here for the Nationals and he's yet to permit more than three runs in any of them. Granted, he hasn't always gone deep into games, but last time out saw him toss five scoreless innings of two-hit ball and that was more than enough as the team prevailed 7-3 over Philadelphia. Gonzalez has also allowed only one home run all season. I think he should find pitching in Petco Park to be quite friendly (as most starters do). Note the reason for that last start being cut short was that there was a 39-minute rain delay. He'd already thrown 89 pitches by that point, but 55 were for strikes. Gonzalez is top 10 in the National League in ERA (2.33) and should not have much trouble w/ a team batting only .229 on the season.

San Diego will counter here southpaw Joey Lucchesi. It's a tall order facing Bryce Harper and a Washington lineup that is averaging over five runs per game against left-handed starters. The Nats also average 5.6 rpg on the road, Tuesday pending. Lucchesi has actually pitched pretty well, but never beyond six innings. Last time out, his offense failed to score for him in a 4-0 loss to the Dodgers. While he only allowed three runs in 5 IP, note he did give up two home runs. He's now allowed a HR in three consecutive starts. Note that the Padres are being outscored by 1.6 rpg at home heading into Tuesday. Look for Washington to win this series (possible sweep depending on what happens Tuesday). 10* Washington

10* Philadelphia (8:05 ET): It's well-known that no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series in NBA playoff history. The chances of it happening here remain small, but the Sixers did stay alive for another day by taking Game 4, 103-92 as seven-point chalk. It's worth noting that Philly has been favored in every game during the series, so them falling behind three games to none was quite the shock. The price came down for Game 4 and I think remains at an appropriate price for Game 5 here in Boston. Remember that the Sixers were in control in Game 2 (led by as many as 22) and Game 3 was an overtime affair that certainly could have gone either way. They were able to win Game 4 despite a poor shooting effort. Boston has gotten by short-handed so far in the playoffs, but another body has dropped (Shane Larkin) and I'll call for the 76ers to stay alive for another day and take Game 5. 

The Sixers came into this series having won 20 of 21 games and were -400 on the money line to advance. In retrospect, that was pretty clearly a case of bad pricing by the oddsmakers, but the initial read still should be respected. Especially seeing as Boston has been far from dominant since winning Game 1. Sure, Philly was not going to be able to maintain its ridiculous winning percentage. I said that coming into the series when I took the Celtics (as home dogs) in the opener. Though they have not shot well in the series, charting the games, Philadelphia has had the better shot selection. We know Boston was #1 in defensive efficiency during the regular season, but I suspect the Sixers' shots are about to start falling. 

TJ McConnell got the surprise start in Game 4 and led the way w/ 19 pts on 9 of 12 shooting. I suspect we'll see more of him here. The play of Ben Simmons has been a real "sore spot" for Sixers' fans in this series, but the good news is his shooting can only get better. Meanwhile, I just don't trust Boston to find consistent scoring w/o Kyrie Irving. Something not talked about enough w/ the Sixers is that the ranked in the top five in defensive efficiency (during the reg season), just like the Celtics. They've actually been better on the defensive end here in the playoffs. Boston has shot better than 46% in just three of their 11 playoff games so far. While I still have my doubts that the Sixers pull off the miracle (i.e. come back to win the series), I do think they'll force a Game 6 back at home. 10* Philadelphia

8* New Orleans (10:35 ET): ): It certainly would appear as if we're destined for a Rockets-Warriors Western Conference Finals. Both teams enter Tuesday up three games to one in their respective series and are at home tonight. The idea that the Pelicans could beat the Warriors three straight times seems pretty laughable to be honest, so it's only a matter of time before their season comes to a close. Anthony Davis and company are double digit dogs for Game 5 following a 118-92 loss in Game 4 Monday night. They have just two wins over Golden State in the last three seasons, Game 3 included. But they did cover the spread here in Oakland in Game 2 (lost by only five) and because everyone is going to be so quick to "write them off," I think there's value here. Take the points. 

It was a wire to wire win in Game 4 for the Dubs, led by Kevin Durant's 38 points. Steph Curry is back and he had 23 pts as well. The team has won its last 14 home playoff games (a streak that dates back to last season), so they have to be feeling confident coming into tonight. But let's not forget the call the pointspread the "great equalizer" for a reason. Golden State is only 18-26 ATS at home this year and was a bottom five team overall at the betting window during the regular season. The spread tonight is higher than it was in Games 1 and 2 and we can use that to our advantage. It's not like New Orleans is any weaker here than they were going into the first two games in Oakland. The Pelicans are 11-2 ATS overall their last 13 games.

Golden State isn't the only team in this series that can score. New Orleans averages 111.6 PPG. Only the Warriors and Rockets averaged more during the regular season. A team that can score that much seems pretty dangerous as a double digit dog, no? Any team w/ Anthony Davis on its roster has a fighting chance in my opinion. Davis had 26 pts and 12 rebounds in Game 4 and that was considered an "off-night" as he committed a game-high six turnovers and was just 8 of 22 from the field. Game 3 was a different story, however, as he had 33 pts and 18 rebounds. He's averaging nearly 14 rebounds per game in the series in addition to more than 26 points. Consider this: since X-Mas, the Pelicans have been double digit dogs just two times (one was Game 2). They covered both time. 8* New Orleans

10* Pittsburgh (8:10 ET): The Bucs will wrap up a nine-game road trip w/ what will be a short two-game visit to the Southside of Chicago. Thus far, the trip has not gone well. They're just 2-5, though they did win on Sunday, 9-0 over Milwaukee. Still 19-16 on the season however, I give them a substantial edge in this Interleague series ove the White Sox, who are really in a bad way right now. Most, myself included, figured the White Sox would be one of the worst teams in the American League this year. They haven't "disappointed," starting 9-23 and they've lost seven of their last eight. I'm going with the NL contigent here. 

Pirates' pitching has not been too bad so far, but don't tell that to Ivan Nova, who really struggled his last time out. He gave up eight runs - three unearned - on 11 hits in a 9-3 loss at Washington. He lasted only 4 2/3 innings. But prior to that, he'd been pitching well, most notably against another AL opponent. On 4.26, he tossed eight shutout innings vs. Detroit and that was on the heels of allowing just one run and five hits in 6 IP at Philadelphia. I expect him to bounce back from last week's rough outing as he's 4-1 w/ a 2.42 ERA in seven career starts vs. the White Sox. Though the Bucs aren't expected to be contenders this year, they do have two players - catcher Francisco Cervelli and CF Corey Dickerson (replaced Andrew McCutchen) - that lead their respective positions in WAR. The team has also gone 6-2 in Interleague play thus far. 

Chicago is 0-2 vs. the NL and quite frankly its difficult to find any situation the team thrives in, other than playing Kansas City. While they are 5-2 vs. the Royals in 2018, they are just 4-21 vs. everyone else! They're also 3-13 at home. Interleague play has not been kind to this club the last several seasons as they're just 15-27. Having Lucas Giolito on the bump tonight hardly inspires any confidence as he has a 7.03 ERA and 1.562 WHIP in six starts and things appear to be going from bad to worse for him. Giolito allowed multiple home runs his last time out and his last home start was a disaster as he allowed nine runs to the Astros in just two innings. Incredibly, the White Sox are being outscored by 2.3 rpg at home for the season, which is as bad as it gets. The Pirates come in averaging 4.8 rpg and get the benefit of the DH added to their lineup. 10* Pittsburgh

10* Under Jazz/Rockets (8:05 ET): It certainly would appear as if we're destined for a Rockets-Warriors Western Conference Finals. Both teams enter Tuesday up three games to one in their respective series and are at home tonight. Houston was able to take both games in Utah, which is pretty impressive considering the Jazz came into this series sporting a 31-13 SU home record. Plus, both wins were by double digits (21 and 13 pts). That means of the eight head to head meetings between these two, the seven Rockets wins have all been by double digits. I'd like to think that w/ their season on the line, the Jazz will be more competitive. But I'm not willing to go on a limb and bet on oit. Instead, the total is more appealing as I'm 2 for 2 w/ the Under in this series already. Let's make it 3 for 3.

Over their last six games, Utah has failed to score 100 pts five times. The exception would be their Game 2 victory in Houston, which was a 116-108 final. You would have thought that they'd shoot better at home, but they finished Game 3 at 41.7% from the floor (despite going 11 of 29 from three-point range) and they were 38.6% from the floor in Game 4. They were 7 of 29 from three-point range this time and scored just 39 second-half points. It's not just playing in Houston that makes tonight a tall order for the Jazz offensively. They'll be short-handed as well. Ricky Rubio has not played a single game in this series after injuring his left hamstring in the close-out game vs. OKC. Apparently left hamstring injuries are contagious in the Jazz locker room as Dante Exum now has one as well and he'll miss tonight's game too. The Rubio injury has forced Donovan Mitchell into starting PG duties and that simply hasn't gone well as the rookie is shooting just 32.5% overall in the series. 

If they are to have any chance in Game 5, Utah will have to rely on its defense, which has been their calling card much of this season. They finished the regular season ranked #2 in the league (behind only Boston) in defensive efficiency. Frustrating for Jazz fans in this series is that Houston has not shot the three well, yet still is in position to advance. Following a Game 1 performance where they were 17 of 32 from behind the arc, the Rockets are just 31 of 111 (that's 28%!). Only one time in the series has Houston hit its season scoring average of 112 PPG and that was Game 3 when they scored 113. They have been relying on a lot of Chris Paul mid-range jumpers so far. The Rockets are already 5-2 Under this season after allowing 90 pts or less the previous game. 10* Under Jazz/Rockets

8* Texas (8:05 ET): Statistically speaking, the Rangers are coming off two of the "odder" seasons in recent memory. Two years ago they managed to win the AL West w/ 95 wins. But they only outscored opponents by a paltry eight runs over the course of entire season! That was owed to a historically fortunate 36-14 record in one-run games. Last year, they dropped down to 78 wins, but their run differential was only -17. The key difference? They were a MLB-worst 13-24 in one-run games. I bring this up because last night saw the Rangers come back and win by exactly one-run, beating Detroit 7-6. That record in one-run games is destined to even out in year three. How they perform in other games is still up for debate, but I like them tonight in Arlington. 

Texas made the most of its seven hits last night, scoring seven times. A four-run sixth saw them collect four hits w/ two outs to tie the game at five apiece. Detroit quickly regained the advantage w/ an unearned run scored in the top half of the seventh, but then a Jurickson Profar triple wound up being the difference in the home half. That's just a brutal loss for the Tigers, who scored more than three runs for just the second time in nine games and still came up short. They've now dropped four of five on the current road trip, which started w/ them losing three of four to another last place team, Kansas City, over the weekend. Outside the Motor City, the team is being outscored by more than a full run per game. Only a handful of teams (four to be exact) have a worse run differential on the road this season.

Texas will send Mike Minor to the mound on Tuesday. He's been pretty solid in six starts this season, especially considering the competition. Five of his six starts have been against Boston, Toronto and Houston. Last time out, he delivered a quality start vs. the Red Sox, holding them to just three runs in six innings of work. The Rangers won that game, as +135 ML dogs, 11-5. Here at home, Minor has been pretty good as his ERA in four starts in 2.86. I certainly prefer him over counterpart Michael Fiers, who has not only allowed 4 HR's his last two starts, but has a 5.87 ERA and 1.50 WHIP his last three. Even more daunting is Fiers' career marks vs. the Rangers. He's 0-3 in five starts w/ an 8.90 ERA. Injuries and a flu bug are also affecting the Tigers' everyday lineup right now. Texas is due to start performing better at home and makes it two straight tonight. 8* Texas

8* Washington (10:15 ET): The Nationals rallied to beat the Phillies yday, scoring two in the bottom of the ninth to win 5-4. Kind of ironic that the final margin was one run as I had pointed out in my analysis for the game (had the Nats) that they had been quite unfortunate to go 2-8 in one-run games this season while (also 0-3 in extra innings) while Philadelphia had enjoyed a 6-2 mark in one-run games (4-1 in extra innings). Funny how those things work themselves out, no? Now the Nats head West to take on the lowly Padres, who did just win B2B games against the Dodgers over the weekend. But Washington has won eight of nine and allowed four runs or fewer in 15 of their last 16 games. This sure seems like a great price on Stephen Strasburg to me.

Washington got a strong effort off the mound from Max Scherzer yday afternoon as he fanned 15 batters in just 6 1/3 innings. All four runs the Nats allowed came after Scherzer exited. The bullpen remains an issue, but like Scherzer, I anticipate a strong start tonight from Strasburg. He has 28 K's his last three starts, which have spanned 20 1/3 IP. His team start record is only 3-4, but he still sports a 1.05 WHIP, which is top 10 among all NL starters. He's also second in IP and third in strikeouts. A native of San Diego, Strasburg has had little issue beating his former hometown team in the past. He's gone 6-2 lifetime vs. the Padres w/ a 2.94 ERA. Here at Petco Park, which is known to be friendly to pitchers, he has allowed just 6 ER in 19 IP (three starts). The Padres have hit just .176 against him in those games. Overall, they have faced Strasburg a total of 49 innings and struck out 66 times. 

Before winning both Saturday and Sunday, the Padres had been no-hit on Friday. They've won three straight only one time before this season. Sunday marked their 1st shutout of 2018 and they're only 7-13 L3 seasons off a shutout win. Here at home, they are still giving up 5.6 runs per game. Remember, the Dodgers series took place in Mexico City. It will be interesting to see how the team reacts to being stateside w/ no days off. Tyson Ross gets the baseball here and while he's generally been pretty sharp of late (especially when throwing his slider), I'm not sure I'd trust him to go "toe for toe" w/ Strasburg. San Diego is still a team that's been outscored by 38 runs this year while Washington has a run differential of +23 (despite being just a game over .500). I like the Nats big in this one. 8* Washington

10* Over Capitals/Penguins (7:05 ET): The Penguins were the lone lower-seeded team to be favored (to win the series) in the second round, yet here they are facing elimination. The good news for Game 6 is that they are at home and a significant favorite to force a Game 7, which would take place Wednesday night in D.C. As you might think, scoring hasn't really been the issue thus far for the Pens, who have found the back of the net three times in four of the five games. But they've also allowed four or more goals in three of the last four. Game 5, won by the Capitals, was the highest scoring game of the series as the final score was 6-3. That score is a little misleading in the sense that the Caps scored twice on an empty net in the final 90 seconds. But even so, there were still seven goals scored before that. Take the Over in Game 6. 

Pittsburgh did enter the third period up 3-2 in that game, thanks to a pair of power play goals in the second. It's no secret that this team was #1 in the league w/ the man advantage during the regular season. They've now scored at least one PP goal in three consecutive games. They were also #1 in even strength scoring in the second half of the season, so it's not all the power play. They did outshoot the Caps in Game 6, 39-32, which was their highest shot total for any individual game in the series. Facing elimination, the Pens should be thankful to be at home as they're big favorites for a reason. They average 3.6 goals per game here for the season. They've actually topped that averaged overall here in the playoffs thanks to a 12.5 shot percentage. Bottom line is Pittsburgh will "get theirs" tonight.

So too should Washington, who is 20-11 Over this season following a win by 2+ goals. We know they are no slouch in the scoring department either, ranking 9th overall in goals per game and 7th on the power play (right behind Pittsburgh in both categories). For the playoffs, the Caps are averaging 3.7 goals per game, same as the Pens. That can be attributed to the fact they are an impressive 13 of 41 on the power play. Game 1 of this series marks the only time in the playoffs that they have not scored at least once on the power play. Note that Pittsburgh is giving up almost 3.0 goals per game in the playoffs despite allowing an average of just 26.3 shots per game. Pens' goalie Matt Murray has a save percentage of .885 the L4 games, which is not good. But Washington has just as much reason to be concerned in goals as Braden Holtby has an .896 save percentage for the year on the road. 10* Over Capitals/Penguins

10* Under Celtics/76ers (6:05 ET): While Philadelphia pretty clearly was overpriced coming into this second round series (were -400 favorites on the ML!), no one anticipated them being on the brink of elimination going into Game 4. Not after they'd won 20 of 21 games previously. Now that winning percentage was unsustainable, a point I harped on when I took the Celtics in Game 1. But in the last two games, one in Boston and the other here in Philly, we've seen the Sixers blow significant leads. Here at home, they lost in overtime after blowing a five-point lead in the extra session. That came after Game 2 in Boston where they blew a 20-point lead. My "gut" tells me the Sixers stay alive here, but I have no interest in laying the points. Therefore, I'll be playing Game 4 the same way I did Game 3 - Under.

The Game 3 Under cashed in spite of OT. There were only 178 total pts in regulation scored, well below the oddsmakers posted O/U line. That's the kind of defense I was expecting from two teams that finished the regular season ranked in the top five in efficiency. Boston was of course #1 in that department and has held the young Sixers in check in this series. In the three games, Philly has shot 42.2%, 43.5% and 39.2% from the floor. I'm just not sure the Sixers are going to have an answer offensively. They've been bad from three-point range in two of the three games, including Game 3 where they were 10 of 38. Turnovers were an issue for them in the regular season and have certainly reared their ugly head again in this series. Ben Simmons has certainly looked nothing like a Rookie of the Year contender in the L2 games.

Boston's Brad Stevens is pretty clearly outcoaching Brett Brown in this series or perhaps its a case of the latter's young team failing to execute. Whatever the reason, the Sixers margin for error is now nil. I'm still confident that they can defend here though as they hold visiting teams to 42.5% shooting for the season. Boston's defense doesn't take a hit on the road, but on offense they do average about 4.2 points per game less. The first two games in Boston saw the Celtics go a combined 32 of 72 from three-point range. That was well above the team's season-long average of 37.7% from behind the arc. Sure enough, they regressed down to below 30% in Game 3.  10* Under Celtics/76ers

10* Utah (8:05 ET): Just as I did in Game 2 of this series, I'll be using the old "zig zag theory" (taking ATS loser of previous game) here in Game 4. The zig-zag theory is by no means "foolproof," but I do think its often a way to seize upon some great value, particularly when taking an underdog that was blown out in last game. Game 1 saw Utah lose 110-96 (trailed by 25 at half), only to bounce back and stun the Rockets in Game 2, 116-108 as double digit road dogs. But Game 3 was a giant step back for the Jazz as they lost at home, 113-92. In six meetings w/ the Rockets this season, the Jazz have lost by double-digits five times. While that hardly sounds inspiring, that's not in any way indicated of what this team is capable of and remember I'm already 3-0 in this series. Take the points w/ the home dog. 

The big story coming into Game 4 is the status of starting Utah PG Ricky Rubio. He hasn't played since injuring his hamstring in the close out game of the Oklahoma City series, but the team is "optimistic" that he will play here today. With Rubio out of the lineup, rookie Donovan Mitchell has been forced into point guard duty and I think it's safe to say that move has affected his game for the worse. Mitchell is shooting just 32.2% for the series. As a team, Utah has not shot well in either loss this series as they were 41.7% overall from the field in Game 3 despite making 11 of 29 three-point attempts. But with or without Rubio, I'm willing to call for a bounce back as the Jazz are 31-14 SU at home this season, shooting 46.5%. They also allow only 97.1 PPG here. Remember this was the #2 team in defensive efficiency during the regular season. As a home dog, they had been 7-3 straight up and against the spread prior to losing Game 3. 

Houston had allowed 50% shooting in four of its last five games before holding Utah in check Friday night. That includes both Games 1 and 2 in Houston. The Rockets are certainly the more talented team here, thanks to James Harden and Chris Paul, but have actually not been very good when one or both are off the floor. They're also just 21 of 73 from three-point range the L2 games. They took a lot more mid-range 2's in Game 3 and found success, but I wouldn't count on that happening again here. The Jazz are basically playing for their season tonight, so I expect a much better effort - on both ends of the floor from them. Remember what I said in my Game 2 analysis; this Jazz team hasn't lost B2B games (with the exception of the meaningless reg season finale/playoff opener) since before MLK Day. 10* Utah

10* Over Golden Knights/Sharks (7:35 ET): As we've been over ad nauseam, the hockey team in Vegas has set a new standard for which expansion teams - in all sports - will forever be compared to. After winning Game 5 at home on Friday, they are now one more win away from making the Conference Finals in their first year of existence, which obviously would be a remarkable achievement. But winning tonight in San Jose might prove difficult and thus I'm not going to throw my endorsement behind the Golden Knights. This has been a high-scoring series w/ seven more goals scored in four of the five games thus far, the lone exception coming when the Knights were shut out here in San Jose back in Game 4. Other than that loss though, they've scored 19 goals in the other four games. I'll look for the high-scoring trend to continue and take the Over in Game 6 Sunday night.  

Game 5 appeared poised to be a low-scoring win for Vegas as they led 3-0 going into the third period. But the teams then combined for five goals in the final 20 minutes, three coming in a six-minute flurry by the Sharks after they'd fallen behind 4-0. For good measure, Vegas added an empty-netter in the final 90 seconds to make the final score 5-3. This has been a much different series for the Golden Knights compared to Rd 1 vs. the Kings when they allowed only three total goals and scored just seven themselves in four games, two of those coming in OT. A major reason for that has been the number of power play chances they've had (27 in five games). They've actually only cashed in six times w/ the man advantage, so that speaks to how prolific they've been at even strength. They're also averaging 33.8 shots per game in the series, a number they didn't hit in three of the four games vs. the Kings.  

But at the same time, the Knights are also allowing more shots per game in this series as well (37.2 per game). Their own penalty killing unit has been tested, just like the Sharks, facing 25 power plays. They've killed off 20 of them. But it will be more difficult stopping San Jose here on the road as the Sharks have scored 17 goals in four home playoff games. Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has been nowhere near as effective in this series as he was vs. the Kings, posting a .908 save percentage the L4 games. Two of the five games in this series have been shutouts, but the winning side has also scored no fewer than four goals in all five games. Over is the play here. 10* Over Golden Knights/Sharks

6* Washington (1:35 ET): The Nationals had their six-game win streak snapped yday (lost 3-1 here to the Phillies), but you have to believe they'll get "right back on the horse" due to Max Scherzer being on the mound Sunday. One streak that did NOT end Saturday was the Nats allowing four runs or less. That's happened eight games in a row now as well as 14 of the last 15. The one exception, they gave up five runs. It's pretty hard to lose when you're giving up so few runs, but shockingly the Nats are only 8-7 during this stretch. Runs should again be at a premium Sunday w/ Scherzer being opposed by Jake Arrieta in a battle of former Cy Young award winners. But I believe it's the home team that comes out on top of this NL East rubber match.

Looking at the division as its currently stands now, four of the five NL East teams could be a factor in the pennant chase. (Miami being the obvious exception). The Nats are still only .500 even after winning six in a row, but they've fallen prey to some "bad luck" so far, namely a 2-8 record in one-run games and they're 0-3 in extra innings. Contrast that w/ the Phillies, who are 6-2 in one-run games and 4-1 in extra innings. Thus, the Nats actually have the better YTD run differential despite being two games worse. However, the Nats have had no problem winning when Scherzer takes the mound (6-1 TSR), doing so each of his L5 outings. In three home starts, Scherzer has a ridiculous 0.403 WHIP. He's also posted four double digit strikeout games thus far and has allowed 2 ER or fewer in five of the six starts overall. Bottom line is he'll hold up his "end of the bargain" here against a Phillies lineup averaging just 2.7 rpg its last seven contests. 

Arrieta had likewise been "rolling along" for Philly, that was until his last start when he was tagged for six runs in Miami of all places. He lasted just 3 2/3 innings. That snapped a string of three straight quality outings from the former Cub. He'll be facing a Nationals lineup that seemed to have turned a corner going into yday. The turnaround can be attributed to Bryce Harper now batting leadoff as he'd homered four times in four games before going 0 for 4 on Saturday. But this one boils down to the fact I simply like Scherzer more than Arrieta and why wouldn't I considering he's a) at home and b) dominated the Phillies in his career. April's NL Pitcher of the Month owns a 9-1 career mark versus this opponent, posting a 2.58 ERA and 108-19 KW rate in 14 starts (94 1/3 IP). Four Phillies hitters - Herrera, Hernandez, Franco and Santana - are a combined 23 for 129 against him. Meanwhile, Arrieta has a 5.49 career ERA vs. the Nationals in nine starts. 6* Washington

6* NY Mets (1:10 ET): If there was ever a time that the Mets needed their "stopper," it would be right now, as they've dropped five in a row (all here at Citi Field) and trying to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Colorado Rockies here. They send Noah Syndergaard to the bump on Sunday and he has a 5-2 team start record w/ a 3.10 ERA and 1.131 WHIP. Those aren't the most overwhelming numbers in the sport, but it's Syndergaard, who continues to deliver quality starts w/ a strong strikeout rate. Meanwhile, I'm still not buying Colorado or more specifically its starting pitching. Even after four straight wins to get to 19-15, the Rockies have still been outscored by 11 runs this year, a worse margin than the slumping Mets. As a team, they are batting just .213 on the road. 

That 11-1 start from the Mets is now a distant memory as the team has dropped 13 of 19, including the five straight, and here they look to avoid their first 0-6 homestand in six seasons. What has gone wrong? Well, for starters, the team simply isn't scoring. During the five game losing streak, they've been shutout three times (yday included) and scored a total of just nine runs. Seven of those nine came in a failed rally attempt Friday when, down 8-2, they put five runs on the board in the final two frames. They had no answers for Colorado's Chad Bettis on Saturday as he pitched seven scoreless innings of six-hit ball. A Rockies team never known for its pitching has now seen its starters produce a sparkling 1.61 ERA the L10 games, which includes six straight six-plus inning efforts. Yet, the staff ERA is still north of 4.00 (4.27), which ranks 12th in the NL. Yes, that has a lot to do w/ Coors Field, but I also don't think what we're seeing of late is sustainable.

The road is obviously where Rockies pitching has been at its best lately as they haven't even played a home game since 4.25. But that hasn't translated to today's starter Kyle Freeland, who is still winless in four road starts w/ a 5.57 ERA and 1.381 WHIP. I mentioned earlier that it's not just the Rockies pitching that gets severely affected by leaving the confines of Coors Field; it's the team's hitting as well. They are averaging just 3.8 rpg on the road and have scored three times or fewer six times on this nine-game road trip (which ends today). So I fully anticipate Syndergaard holding up "his end of the bargain" here and provided the Mets can finally put some runs on the board, they'll snap this ugly losing skid. 6* NY Mets

10* Under Jets/Predators (9:35 ET): Nashville picked up a huge victory in Game 4 (2-1), thus taking back the home ice advantage they had lost in Game 1. Speaking of home ice advantage, the series now shifts back to "Smashville" for Game 5. I'm not about to deviate from my view that Winnipeg might just be the better team here, but I have to also concede that winning in Nashville tonight is going to be a tall order for them. But what I am confident in here is another low-scoring affair similar to Game 4. Winnipeg had started out this series by scoring at least four goals in each of the first three games. But that streak came to a crashing halt in Game 4 Thursday as they scored only one time on 33 shots. Nashville had scored nine goals in Games 2 and 3, which was also unsustainable. Take the Under here. 

Winnipeg is the highest scoring team in the league on home ice at 3.8 gpg. So it was quite impressive to see the Preds hold them to just one goal in the last game. Then again, Nashville was #2 in the regular season in goals allowed. Notable for the scene shifting for Game 5 is that the Jets see their scoring average dip by nearly a full goal per game on the road (down to 2.9). The Under is 26-19 in all Winnipeg road games this season as well as 10-4 if they are seeking revenge for a home loss (which they are here). Game 4 featured the fewest number of total shots on goal in the series, showing that things are "tightening up" as the stakes are raised. Nashville, in particular, exhibited a far more "conservative" and defensive-oriented approach in Game 4. "It was something we really focused on, playing solid defensively," Nashville goalie Pekka Rinne said. I expect them to employ a similar strategy here in Game 5. 

Winnipeg is no slouch defensively either as they've allowed two goals or less in six of their nine playoff games thus far. They too were a top five team in goals allowed during the regular season. Connor Hellebuyck has had himself a nice postseason between the pipes w/ a .921 save percentage. I'd say the last three games he hasn't been at his best, but for the team's sake, he knows he "has" to be tonight. Remember that after his one bad outing in the 1st round vs. Minnesota, Hellebuyck bounced back w/ B2B shutouts. I expect him to play well here. However, Winnipeg still will have to solve Nashville's blue line, which is the best in the sport two deep. 10* Under Jets/Predators

8* Atlanta (7:10 ET): It was a rude return home for the Braves Friday night as they lost to the Giants by a score of 9-4. Both teams came into this series playing their best baseball of the season w/ the Braves winning five straight and the Giants 8 of 11. I was surprised to see Atlanta fall given the way they so thoroughly dominated the Mets in the previous series, outscoring them 21 to 2 w/ a 41-15 edge in hits. In fact, the Braves had outscored the opposition 35-4 over the course of their five-game win streak. They gave up more than twice that number of runs last night, but I view that as a "temporary speedbump" and will look for them to bounce back tonight behind the undefeated Brandon McCarthy, who is 4-0 in his six starts w/ a 3.09 ERA. Go with the NL East leaders. 

I'm buying these Braves as legit. Whether or not they can sustain the current lead in the division remains to be seen, but right now they have the top run differential in the entire National League. Only three heavyweights from the American League - Houston, Boston and the Yankees - have outscored their opponents by a greater margin this season. The Braves have scored - by far - the most runs of any NL team and w/ the call up of Ronald Acuna, may have the best top of the order of any lineup in baseball. The team had gone 7-1 w/ Acuna in the lineup prior to losing last night. But he was 0 for 4 in the series opener. Another new face in the Braves' lineup is Jose Bautista. I suspect the offense is going to perform a lot better here than it did Friday night. The Braves are averaging 6.4 runs per game at home so far. 

McCarthy will hopefully give the home team a better start than Mike Foltynewicz did last night. As mentioned earlier, McCarthy has yet to drop a decision in 2018 (5-1 TSR) and he's given up 3 ER or less in all but one start. In three of his previous four trips to the mound, he's allowed exactly one run. I don't fear a Giants lineup that came into yday batting just .222 on the road and averaging 2.5 rpg. Their starter, Ty Blach, has improved since a disastrous first outing of the year. But, he often has been the victim of poor run support. After scoring nine runs in B2B games, I expect the Giants' offense to "cool off" substantially on Saturday night as I'll note the team has only one three-game win streak to its credit so far this season. 8* Atlanta 

10* Under Celtics/Sixers (5:05 ET): Perhaps we were all too quick to "crown" the Sixers as they lost both games in Boston (as favorites) and now face an 0-2 series deficit. Coming into the second round, they had won 20 of their previous 21 games, an unsustainable run that was due to come back "down to Earth." I, for one, am not all that surprised that they are in the predicament they are in currently. I actually played against them in Game 1, the end result being a 117-101 loss. Game 2 saw them lead by as many as 22 in the first half, but Boston quickly erased that and was able to take the lead by midway through the 3Q and only give it back briefly. For me, it was a tough loss on the Under, which didn't officially become a loser until eight seconds were left in the game.

At home, I suspect that we'll see a strong bounce back performance from Philadelphia here as their backs are definitely against the wall (no team has ever recovered from a 3-0 series deficit). However, I don't dare bet against a Boston team that is 22-7 ATS in the underdog role this season (and 13-2 ATS off a SU win as a dog). So, I'll go back to the well w/ the Under again. I figure we can always count on the Celtics defensively as they've held the Sixers to 42.2% and 43.5% shooting in the first two games. They were also the #1 ranked team in defensive efficiency during the regular season.There is basically no change in the number of points per game allowed on the road compared to at home. They do however average about 4.2 PPG fewer themselves.

Ben Simmons isn't going to be held scoreless again for Philly (was in Gm 2), but any individual gains he makes here likely come at the expense of the other scorers. The Sixers were terrible shooting the ball in Game 1, most notably from three-point range where they went 5 for 26. They improved to 13 of 33, a solid percentage, in Game 2. I expect that number to come back down for Game 3. At the same time, on the road, I expect Boston's three-point shooting to fall off tonight. In the first two games, the Celtics were 32 of 72 from behind the arc, which is almost 45 percent. That's well above the team's normal average of 37.7% for the year. Something not talked about enough is Philadelphia's defense. This was also a top five team in efficiency during the regular season and they hold opponents to just 42.4% shooting here for the year. 10* Under Celtics/Sixers 

10* Under Rockets/Jazz (10:35 ET): Utah surprised a lot of people (not me!) by winning Game 2, 116-108 as a double digit dog. After taking a big early lead (by as many as 19 points), they had to thwart a Houston comeback, one that even saw the Jazz trail briefly in the third quarter. But led by Donovan Mitchell (17 pts, 11 assists) and Joe Ingles (career-high 27 pts), the Jazz were able to battle back and in the end, win comfortably. Game 2 was a stark contrast to Game 1 when Utah fell behind big early (trailed by as many as 25 pts) and never really recovered. Now the series shifts to Utah for the next two games where the Jazz have gone 31-13 SU this season and only allow 96.7 PPG. I had the Under in Game 1 and that's how I'm playing Game 3 as well.

Game 1 did see the Under cash (barely), but Game 2 went Over pretty easily as the Jazz shot 51.8% from the field and made 15 three-pointers. One area that the Jazz struggled in both games was free throw shooting as they're a combined 28 of 47 in the series. But an area where there were no struggles, at least in Game 2, was the defensive end. They limited the Rockets to 40% shooting overall, including 10 of 37 from three-point range. That's very different from Game 1 when Houston went 17 of 32 from behind the arc. Of course, in taking the Jazz plus the points in Game 2, I anticipated that Rockets drop-off. Some of that was natural, the rest probably can be traced back to the fact Utah finished the regular season ranked #2 in defensive efficiency. Something that may surprise you is that in the first two games, Houston is only 48 of 108 on two-point FG attempts. That's just 44%. 

While Houston might very well shoot better in Game 3, Utah probably won't shoot as well here compared to the last game, even though it is at home. Ingles probably isn't scoring 27 pts again. Something else to keep in mind is that the Jazz play at one of the slowest paces in the entire league. They were tied for 25th in adjusted tempo, second slowest among all playoff teams (San Antonio). Defensively, they are a lot better at home (96.7 PPG allowed) than on the road (103.4 PPG allowed) and that probably helps explain why the Under is 26-18 in Salt Lake this season. Similarly, the Under is 25-17 in Rockets' road games this season. They score about 3.5 PPG less on the road than they do at home. They also give up fewer points. 10* Under Rockets/Jazz 

8* Houston (9:40 ET): The lone Interleague matchup on the weekend slate pits the defending World Series Champion Astros against the team w/ the best record currently in the National League, Arizona. The D'backs play host (where they have gone 11-5), but as you tell from the money line, the oddsmakers don't like their chances in tonight's series opener. No do I. That has a lot to do w/ who is pitching for Houston, that being Gerrit Cole. Pirates fans have to be wondering where "this Cole" was during his tenure there as he's off to a fantastic start to his Astros' career. Through six starts, Cole has a 1.73 ERA and 0.792 ERA. That's what makes Houston such a prohibitive favorite tonight and note they are already 7-1 this season as a road fave of -175 or higher.

Now, it's not all "wine and roses" right now for the 'Stros as they just dropped three of four to the Yankees (at home) in a rematch of LY's ALCS. They got shutout twice and scored only seven runs in this series, five of those coming yday in a game they blew in the top of the ninth (gave up three runs and lost by one run). But this offense has actually been more prolific on the road (5.8 runs per game) and should thrive this weekend in hitter-friendly Chase Field despite the loss of the designated hitter. Tonight, they'll be facing Kris Medlen, who is making his first start of 2018. He is starting here in place of the injured Robbie Ray. The fact that Arizona has been able to keep it together despite so many injuries is impressive, but I'm not sure it is sustainable. This is a pretty brutal spot for them, coming off a series w/ the "rival" Dodgers (lost last two games). It is the first time in MLB history that a team has had to host BOTH World Series representatives from the previous year in consecutive series.

I expect Houston's offense to get going here and Cole should take care of the rest. The Astros have allowed the fewest number of runs in baseball, including only 2.3 per game on the road. Cole has been a big part of that as all six of his starts thus far have been quality ones and he has a 61-8 KW ratio in 41 2/3 IP. He is seventh in the NL in ERA as well as sixth in WHIP. He's familiar w/ Arizona and pitching in this park from his time spent in the Senior Circuit. Not sure how Medlen, who hasn't started a big league game since 2016 (Tommy John surgery) can match him. He was 0-3 w/ a 6.00 ERA in three starts at Triple A Reno this Spring. 8* Houston 

8* Run Line San Diego (9:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Padres +1.5. Now endorsements of this ballclub will be few and far between this season. But w/ the Dodgers coming off an emotional series w/ the rival D'backs, tonight sets up as an excellent "ambush" spot for the dog. Note the game and series takes place in Mexico City. After losing seven of eight to the D'backs to start the year, LA won each of the last two days, but they're still below .500 and seven games out of first place in the NL West. The only team below them is the Padres, but the Dodgers are closer to them than they are first place. I say that knowing full well that LA has outscored its opponents by 12 runs despite the losing record. But San Diego, who has revenge for a prior sweep, does no worse than a one-run loss here. All things considered, the +1.5 is a really cheap price.

It was in San Diego that the Padres got swept by the Dodgers. It happened roughly two weeks ago w/ the Dodgers coming in and outscoring them 30-10 over the three games. Similar to here, LA was coming off a series against Arizona. At the time, it seemed like a "get well" spot and it was, but in the big picture signaled no real turnaround. The Dodgers have gone just 6-8 the L14 games. Only the hapless Reds have dropped more units at the betting window this season. Injuries, particularly the season-ender to Corey Seager, have really decimated the everyday lineup here. San Diego, by the way, arrives in Mexico City after an off-day. That's a big advantage in my view. 

Tonight's pitching matchup is a battle of prospects. Walker Buehler is the #1 rated prospect in the Dodgers' organization, as far as arms go, and gets the starting nod tonight. He's made two starts previous to tonight and gone five innings in both, allowing just two runs total (both last time out). Both resulted in wins for the team, but they were also against the Giants and Marlins, two bad teams. San Diego counters w/ their #7 rated pitching prospect, Joey Lucchesi. He's made six starts in 2018 and has a 2.78 ERA and 1.113 WHIP. The team has won three of his last four times out and there's been only one time all year where he gave up more than three runs (loss at Arizona). All things considered, the +1.5 is a nice luxury to have and is a strong value at the "going rate." 8* Run Line San Diego (+1.5)

8* Minnesota (8:10 ET): It has been a pretty dreadful stretch for the Twins, who have dropped 12 of the last 14 games. Last night was one of the more painful losses of the bunch as they fell in walk-off fashion, 6-5, after blowing an early 5-1 lead. It was Trayce Thompson winning the game w/ a HR in the ninth (w/ two outs) for the White Sox, but as we know this is a flawed team as well. With Jose Berrios pitching tonight for Minnesota, I have to think they get back into the win column. Yes, I'm on the record as saying 2018 would be a "regression year" in the Twin Cities, but Chicago also projects to be the worst team in the American League when all is said and done. Even w/ the Twins losing 12 of their last 14 games, they still have a better record than the White Sox. Go w/ the visitors here.

How could you not think Minnesota would regress in 2018? Last year, they were the biggest surprise in all of baseball. After losing 100+ games in 2016, they stunned everyone by making the AL Wild Card Game (which they lost to the Yankees) w/ 87 wins. So, it's only natural that they'd finish "somewhere in between" this season. Starter Berrios, however, is doing his best to counteract any regression. In six starts, he's posted a 3.63 ERA and 0.923 WHIP. His team start record is only 3-3 as he's off B2B subpar outings. In three of his six starts, Berrios has gone at least seven innings w/o allowing a run and given up three hits or fewer. One of those was a CG effort. His KW ratio in those three starts is 22-1 and the Twins are 3-0. However, he's also allowed four or more runs in the other three starts (all losses), failing to go even five innings in any of them. His KW ratio remained solid overall (42-5 first five starts) before turning in his worst effort of the year last time out (vs. Cincinnati), a zero strikeout performance w/ three walks. Berrios lasted only three innings in that one.

The good news for Berrios here is that he'll be facing the White Sox, a team he's dominated in the past. He's 4-1 w/ a 1.67 ERA in five career starts against them and that includes seven shutout innings back on April 12th (was a -200 favorite on the ML). That start also saw him post a season-high 11 strikeouts. Yesterday's win was only the third of the year for the White Sox (in 13 tries) here at Guaranteed Rate Field. They're being outscored by 2.2 rpg here at home. It's been a tough stretch for the Twins, but note four of their last 12 losses have come in the game's final at-bat. Their luck turns tonight behind what should be a quality effort from Berrios. I don't see White Sox starter Carson Fulmer being able to match him, even though he (Fulmer) is off B2B quality starts. Fulmer has allowed seven runs in just 3 IP lifetime vs. the Twins. 8* Minnesota

full analysis soon

analysis soon

8* Under Sixers/Celtics (8:35 ET): Well, I "struck gold" in Game 1 of this series, cashing the Celtics as home underdogs. They won 117-101 (closed +4.5), holding the previously red hot Sixers to just 42.2% shooting. Head coach Brad Stevens rightly deserves all the accolades heaped upon him, especially considering all the personnel Boston was w/o in Game 1. Kyrie Irving is of course out for the entire postseason and Jaylen Brown didn't play either. Of course, this team's calling card all season long has been its defense as they ranked #1 in efficiency on that end of the floor during the regular season. The loss of Irving really doesn't hurt them at all in that regard. But it obviously hampers them offensively and while Boston has found ways to have some big scoring nights in this postseason, I don't think Game 2 will be one of them. Take the Under.

Brown had been upgraded to probable for Game 2, but has since been downgraded to doubtful on Wednesday afternoon. Keep an eye on his status. Regardless, this Under play will stand. If Brown does play, expect some rust and him not to be all that effective on the offensive end. Given that the swingman is averaging 17.9 PPG this postseason, his loss will be felt. But then again, that average is heavily skewed by a 34-point effort in Game 4 of the last series. This Celtics team did not shoot particularly well vs. the Bucks in Round 1 (only two games above 42.0 FG%), so needless to say I don't see a repeat of their 48% shooting from Game 1 of this series. I especially don't see them shooting 17 of 36 again from three-point range or 18 of 19 from the FT line. The Over is 10-2 the Celtics' last 12 games overall, but that's a trend I see reversing itself moving forward.

While Boston should certainly be commended for its Game 1 performance, the truth of the matter is that Philadelphia was highly unlikely to continue its torrid pace, which had seen them win 18 of 19 games. The cold reality is they've shot below 43% from the field in four of the past five games anyway. As stated above, they are now dealing with the #1 team in defensive efficiency during the regular season. In five meetings w/ the Celtics this season, the Sixers have yet to top 103 pts in any of them. They've also shot 42.2% of worse in four of them. Joel Embiid was quick to tout Game 1 as not being "representative" of what the team is capable of, and while that might be true against most teams, I'm not sure it applies to facing the Celtics. Embiid himself struggled in Game 1 as he continues to get used to the new offense the team is playing. The Under is 10-4 this season for Philadelphia if they allowed 115+ pts the previous game. 8* Under Sixers/Celtics 

10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): There's a real "sense of irony" here in what I've seen called the "best final eight (teams)" in Stanley Cup Playoff history. Of the four matchups, three saw the team with the home ice advantage come in as the betting favorite. That's not uncommon, in fact, normally one would assume that the team w/ the home ice edge would be favored to win the series. However, the way things stand now, the series underdog is currently leading all four series! That includes this one where Pittsburgh, the one favorite that did NOT have home ice advantage in its series, is down two games to one to the Capitals. Tonight is a virtual "must-win" as they are at home. I'll take 'em. 

Game 1 was certainly a familiar "script" for the Capitals in what has been a very one-sided rivalry (at least come playoff time) w/ the Penguins. At home, they blew a two-goal lead in the third period, giving up three straight goals in a six-minute span. Remember, of the 10 previous playoff series between these teams, Pittsburgh has won NINE of them. Each of the last two seasons, we have seen the Pens eliminate the Caps en route to winning the Stanley Cup. However, given the way the series opener played out, perhaps its more surprising to see Washington bounce back to take the last two games. Game 2 again saw them take a two-goal lead (early), only this time they expanded it rather than blow it, and end up winning 4-1. It was another four-goal effort here in Game 3 and this time it was a Caps' rally as they scored the only two goals in the third period to win 4-3 (Alex Ovechkin had the game winner w/ less than two minutes in regulation).  

It's not w/o sound reasoning that Pittsburgh was favored to win this series. They had a better regular season goal differential than Washington, were #1 in even strength goals the second half of the season and own the league's top power play unit. That's in additon to "owning" this rivalry through the years. The Capitals were actually outscored at even strength in the 1st round series w/ Columbus, but got nine power play goals to overcome that. Neither PP has been that effective in this series, but I expect Pittsburgh's to "wake up" sooner rather than later as its just 2 for its last 19, which is highly irregular. Also, the Pens are 28-10 this season after allowing 4+ goals the previous game. I just can't see them dropping both home games considering they are 32-11-2 here for the season (average 3.6 goals per game). Finally, there's the fact Washington is going to be w/o forward Tom Wilson, who was suspended for the next three games due to a vicious hit he levied in the last game, which broke the jaw of rookie Zach Aston-Reese. 10* Pittsburgh

10* Over Cavaliers/Raptors (6:05 ET): It was a familiar story for Toronto in Game 1 as they once again failed to beat LeBron James, this time doing so in one of the most excruciating ways possible. That is, they lost in overtime (by a single point) after never trailing in regulation. To add insult to injury, James didn't even perform that well (though he did have a triple double). By his own admission, it was "probably one of my worst games of the season." James shot just 12 for 30 from the field, including 1 for 8 from three-point range, and additionally went 1 for 6 from the FT line. He was only 3 for 15 in the fourth quarter & overtime, his most misses from the field in a 4Q/OT in his entire career. And Cleveland still won the game. The key was an epic collapse from the Raptors as down the stretch they missed 16 of 17 shots at one point. Neither team shot better than 43% for the game.

For the first time in these playoffs, Game 1 saw a James' teammate score at least 20 pts in a game. It was J.R. Smith of all people, who like most Cavs not named LeBron had been having a poor playoffs so far. Overall, five Cavaliers scored in double figures, led by James' 23. One of them was NOT Kevin Love, who continues to shoot poorly (was 3 for 13 in Gm 1). It would be easy to dismiss the Smith contribution as unlikely to repeat itself in Game 2, but the fact of the matter is that LeBron's supporting cast has been so poor thus far in the playoffs that you can't help but think the collective effort WILL improve. As a team, Cleveland averaged 110.9 PPG in the regular season (2nd in the East, only to Toronto) and was 5th in offensive efficiency. James is also very likely to see his own shooting percentage improve for Game 2.

If there is hope for Toronto, it's that Cleveland also ranked 28th in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They were ahead of only Sacramento and Phoenix. I wrote about this a lot in the first round series vs. Indiana where the Cavs somewhat shockingly allowed more than 101 pts only once. But in Game 1 Tuesday, there were signs of regression despite the Raptors inability to hit a shot late. What was so frustrating from the Toronto perspective is that so many of the missed shots were wide-open. At home, it's difficult to envision them missing those same opportunities again. After all, this is a team that averages 112.5 PPG at home and ranked third in the league in offensive efficiency (behind only Houston and Golden State) in the regular season. I see both teams shooting better here in Game 2 than they did in Game 1 when they each finished w/ 105 pts at the end of regulation anyway. For the season, Cleveland still allows 109.2 PPG. 10* Over Cavaliers/Raptors

8* Over Pirates/Nationals (1:05 ET): The Nats' offense has finally shown up the last two days, a welcome occurrence given the club is still averaging only 3.7 rpg here in the Nation's Capital. They've scored a total of 21 runs the past two games and now have a chance to finish off a four-game sweep of the Pirates Thursday afternoon. Ironically, I cashed Washington in the first game of the series, which was a low-scoring affair (3-2 final). It was the team's stars leading the way last night as Bryce Harper started things w/ a home run (2nd in as many nights), the first of 14 Nationals' hits for the game. Stephen Strasburg took it from there, striking out 11 en route to a 9-3 victory. Look for more runs to be scored today - from both sides. I'm on the Over.

Washington pitching has allowed more than four runs just one time in the last 12 games. Theoretically, that should translate to more wins than losses, but the team's record is only 6-6 during that stretch and they'd dropped six of nine before this series got underway. This afternoon's starter Jeremy Hellickson is 3-1 w/ a 2.86 ERA in five career starts vs. Pittsburgh, who has hit just .187 off him. So you might be willing to wager he keeps the trend of four runs or less alive. Maybe he does, but note Hellickson has yet to really go deep into any start this season. In the three thus far in 2018, his longest outing is 5 1/3 innings. He also allowed two home runs in his last start. He'll also be facing a Pirates team that is 10-3 in day games so far, averaging an impressive 5.8 runs per game.

Hellickson will also be backed by a Washington offense now averaging 7.0 rpg the last seven days. So, even though Bucs' starter Trevor Williams has a 1.50 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in three road starts this year, I'm not so sure how successful he'll be either. Williams has yet to last more than six innings in any of his six starts overall this season and he's had some control issues as well. Twice, he's issued five walks and his strikeout numbers aren't all that impressive (KW ratio is 23-17). This will be his first time ever facing the Nationals. The Pirates had been winning (five in a row) and hitting coming into this series, but haven't been really able to get anything going offensively against Nats' pitching. But they've also had to face Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg the last two days. Hellickson shouldn't be quite as challenging and I look for enough runs to be scored here to send this one Over the total. 8* Over Pirates/Nationals

9* Vegas (10:05 ET): The Golden Knights simply continue to establish new benchmarks for an expansion franchise, no matter the sport. They're now 6-1 in the playoffs after "stealing" Game 3 Monday night in overtime. They can now take a commanding 3-1 series lead w/ another win tonight in San Jose. Unlike the 1st round series (where they swept the Kings), scoring has not been an issue for Vegas in the 2nd round as they've totaled 14 goals in three games. That's twice as many goals as they had in the four-game sweep of Los Angeles. Now they've also allowed seven goals the L2 games after giving up only three in the first five (three shutouts). But the fact they were still able to win one of those speaks volumes about the resiliency of this team. I'm going with them at 'plus money' in Game 4. 

Vegas is now 5-2 vs. San Jose in their inaugural season. Of course, as we've come to learn throughout this season, this isn't your "normal" expansion team. They defied the odds by winning the Pacific Division in the regular season and while many cite a tremendous home ice advantage, they also had 22 road wins, tied for second most in the league. Curiously, San Jose has not been a dominant home team as they're "only" 27-14-3 at the Shark Tank in 2017-18. They also have a losing record against teams that are .500 or better this year. Game 3 saw Vegas jump out to a 3-1 lead after two periods, only to give up two goals in the final 13 minutes. San Jose tied things up w/ less than two minutes to go in regulation, but it was "not to be" as William Karlsson of the Golden Knights won it in overtime. 

Yes, Vegas has been a tad bit "lucky" in the playoffs as all but one win (7-0 over San Jose in Gm 1) has been by one goal. They've also been outshot in all but two games w/ one of the exceptions seeing them outshoot the Sharks by one in that Game 1 romp. But this club has been both lucky and good throughout its first year of existence and can hang its hat on a red-hot goaltender (Marc-Andre Fleury) that has a .960 save percentage in the postseason. Also, the Vegas power play has come alive in this series w/ five goals after going just 1 for 12 against the Kings (who had the top PK unit in the league during the regular season). What's impressive is that the Sharks' penalty killing ranked #2 in the reg season. I also have my concerns about San Jose's ability to score moving forward as this team was only 15th in even strength goals during the regular season. They were fortunate to go 6 for 20 w/ the man advantage in the first round vs. Anaheim, but are now just 3 for 16 in this series. With a clear edge in goal, I'll call for Vegas to continue rolling. 9* Vegas 

8* LA Angels (10:07 ET): I won w/ the Angels last night and won't deviate from that script tonight. Most of what I wrote in yday's analysis still applies tonight as the Halos' uncharacteristic slow start to the season at home (now 6-10) can be attributed to an 0-6 record against the Yankees and Red Sox. Against everyone else in the league, their record is now 17-6 w/ a run differential of +40. They took last night's series opener by a score of 3-2 following a wild ninth inning where they first blew a two-run lead, only to win the game in walkoff fashion. While Baltimore treated me kindly this past weekend (including a 10* Game of the Week winner on Sunday), this is not a good team as they now have the second worst record and run differential in the sport. 

Besides the win, the other good news for the Angels on Tuesday was the return of Shohei Ohtani to the lineup. (It was his first time back in the everyday lineup since injuring his ankle against the Yankees on Friday). He doubled, marking the 11th time in 12 games as a DH that he got at least one hit. He'll DH again tonight as his next scheduled start (two-way player, remember!) isn't until the weekend. Taking the mound tonight will be Andrew Heaney, who hopes to give his team something similar to what Nick Tropeano delivered last night w/ seven scoreless innings. It hasn't exactly been a great start to 2018 for Heaney, but he did strike out nine batters in five innings of work vs. the Yankees last week (no decision). Having made only three starts so far, Heaney's YTD numbers are still skewed by the one poor outing he had against San Francisco. 

This is Baltimore's worst start to a season since 2010 when they were also 8-21. Before that, you'd have to go back to the infamous 0-21 start in 1988 to find a time when an Orioles team dug itself a bigger hole. I do not see them escaping this one quite frankly. They are 3-11 on the road and giving up over six runs per game and a .303 batting average. Dylan Bundy gets the baseball tonight and while he's arguably been the O's most consistent starter thus far, that's not really saying much. He has a 2-4 TSR and a 1.714 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, he was shelled for eight runs in 4 2/3 innings. I realize that the Angels have not scored more than three runs in any of the L5 games, but I'm expecting an offensive "explosion" of sorts tonight as they certainly have the pieces in their lineup to do so. 8* LA Angels

10* Utah (8:05 ET): Game 1 of this second round series took place Sunday afternoon and was the fifth time this season that the Jazz and Rockets faced off. For a fifth time, it was Houston prevailing in lopsided fashion, doing so 110-96 as 11.5-pt chalk. The Rockets are now 5-0 SU and ATS against the Jazz this year, every win coming by a minimum of 11 pts. The average margin of victory has been 16.8 points per game. As someone who "stood on the sidelines" for the Game 1 spread (I instead cashed the Under), I have to say "isn't it time for Utah to play Houston close?" Now not having Ricky Rubio (strained left hamstring) definitely hurts - both literally and figuratively - but I believe the Jazz can overcome his absence by playing their usual brand of defense (#2 in efficiency during regular season) and at least cover the spread here. Take the points. 

Game 1 was never really close as Houston jumped out to 13-point lead by the end of the first quarter and pretty much coasted from there. They led by 25 at halftime and by 18 entering the fourth quarter. The Rockets shot 53.1% from three-point range, making 17 of 32 attempts w/ seven of those coming from James Harden (career playoff-high). Harden had 41 points, eight rebounds and seven assists for the game as the usually defensively-minded Jazz had no answers. I had thought the Houston-Minnesota series would offer up a blueprint for Utah to defend Harden, but it was to no avail. If you recall, early on in Round 1, Harden struggled when the T'wolves sank their big man, Karl-Anthony Towns, in the paint to prevent drives. With Rudy Gobert in the middle, I thought the Jazz would do better than they did in Game 1. Fortunately for them, it was only "one game." 

Utah missed 15 of its 22 three-point attempts and missing 9 of 22 free throws certainly didn't help matters either. I expect the team to improve in both areas for Game 2. Something to keep in mind here is that the Jazz closed the regular season on a 29-6 run. While there was a stretch back in March where they dropped three of five, they haven't lost B2B games (save for the reg season finale (meaningless)/playoff opener) since before MLK Day! Including the playoffs, this is a team that has won 33 of 42 games and getting double digits. I think they can keep it close here against Houston, for a change. The quick turnaround between series did Utah no favors (eliminated OKC on Friday), but here they've had two days in between games. Houston is just 5-10 ATS this season playing w/ exactly two days rest. 10* Utah 

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): It was not a good weekend for the Angels as they were swept here at home by the red hot Yankees. They've dropped four in a row overall, the second time that's happened to them this season. Interestingly, each of those losing streaks saw them get swept at home by an AL East power (Red Sox the other time). But while they're 0-6 so far against the Red Sox and Yankees, the record against everyone else is a strong 16-6. That includes a pair of wins at Houston last week. Despite coming in on a losing streak, I don't envision the Halos having much difficulty defeating the lowly Orioles this week, tonight in particular. Baltimore is one of a number of American League teams that pretty soon will have to start thinking about 2019 and beyond. 

That said, the Orioles are coming off a successful weekend. They took two of three from the Tigers, which was their first winning series at home this season. That right there should tell you what kind of start to the season it's been for the O's. Now, I did have them in both wins over the Tigers, Sunday's being my 10* Game of the Week. But again, those games were contested at Camden Yards. The team's road record is just 3-10. They've also still been outscored by 54 runs overall, the second worst differential in the sport right now (Kansas City worse). That number figures to only get worse w/ the likes of Alex Cobb on the bump. Cobb, a former rival pitcher w/ the Rays, continues to do the O's no favors as he's off to a 0-3 start w/ a truly horrific ERA (13.11) and WHIP (2.828). He's allowed 20 runs on 30 hits in 11 2/3 IP! The team has been outscored 31-15 in his three starts. 

The Angels were outscored 17-5 by the Yankees over the weekend and are now just 5-10 at home for the year. But again, if not for an 0-6 record against the Red Sox and Yankees, things would look a lot better. Having to play w/o Shohei Ohtani isn't ideal, but it can easily be overcome here, given the weak opponent. Nick Tropeano will get the baseball instead, looking to shake off a couple of subpar showings. Tropeano missed much of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but did have a quality start against Baltimore. He dominated Kansas City earlier this year and I expect similar results against the Orioles team which is batting a collective .224 overall. 8* LA Angels

9* Winnipeg (8:05 ET): The Jets did what they needed to do in Games 1 & 2 in Nashville and that was earn a split. They took Game 1 in shockingly convincing fashion, 4-1, before dropping Game 2 in double overtime, 5-4. It was ironic that that Jets won the game where they were outshot 48-19, but lost the one where they had a 50-41 edge in shots. Obviously, even w/ a 2OT affair involved, that's a lot of shots to be giving up over a two-game span. But any concerns I might have over that tidbit are quickly quelled by the series shifting back to Winnipeg for Game 3. Here, the Jets have lost only nine times all season, the fewest number of home losses in the entire league. They won all three home games in the first round, averaging four goals per game. That's right on par w/ their season average of 3.9 gpg here at MTS Place, the highest scoring average at home in the entire league. I'll take the Jets in Game 3.

Winnipeg had the highest goal differential in home games during the regular season, outscoring visiting teams by 1.34 goals per game. It's not just their scoring, however. This team also ranked 5th in the league in goals allowed during the regular season, making them the only team to rank in the top five in both goals scored and goals allowed. (Tampa Bay still had a slightly better overall goal differential due to their top-ranked offense). In the three home games in Rd 1 vs. Minnesota, the Jets allowed a total of only three goals. While Nashville was able to win a 5-4 game on Sunday, they should be wary here considering Winnipeg's record this season is 18-9 SU after giving up 4+ goals the previous game. Prior to that loss, the Jets had allowed a total of only ONE goal the previous three games. 

Winnipeg did have a three-game losing streak in March, but all three games took place on the road. Other than that, they suffered B2B losses only two other times since Christmas! I'm of the opinion that they are the better team here, so it's very easy to like them w/ the home ice advantage in Game 3. They have won 12 in a row here in Manitoba. Now the last loss here did come against Nashville by a score of 6-5 back on Feb 27th. The Preds are tied w/ TB for the most road wins in the league, but this is arguably the toughest venue in the league to play at and I don't know if they can get the home ice advantage back. Something else to consider is that Nashville has only won once this postseason when scoring fewer than five goals. If their offense isn't clicking again tonight (and I don't think it will be), that's going to be a problem moving forward. 9* Winnipeg

10* Toronto (8:05 ET): LeBron James is the best basketball player in the world (and no worse than the 2nd best player ever), but Cleveland is not a great team. Throughout my analysis of their 1st round series vs. Indiana, I mentioned how the Cavs finished the regular season ranked 28th in the league in defensive efficiency. That was ahead of only Sacramento and Phoenix. Speaking of that 1st round series (which just ended Sunday, mind you), it went the distance (seven games) and the Cavs four wins were by a combined 14 points. None were by greater than four. Meanwhile, two of their three losses were by 18 or more points and they were outscored by 40 pts in the series. That's the worst total point differential for any team that won a playoff series since 1984!

Now Toronto has an ugly past to overcome here. Namely, they've only won two playoff Game 1's in franchise history, one of those coming in the last round vs. Washington. They've been eliminated each of the last two years by the Cavaliers, even getting swept last year. However, there are signs that 2018 could be a little different. Namely, the Raptors have the homecourt advantage this year. In the regular season, they owned the best home point differential in the entire league. They won all three home games in the 1st round vs. Washington, all by eight points or more. Yes, they did drop two of three regular season meetings w/ Cleveland. But both losses came on the road and were by six points or less. The one meeting that took place here North of the Border (back in January) saw the Raptors win by 34 points! 

Had I told you before the series that Cleveland would allow only 100.6 points per game to Indiana, you would probably assume that they'd advance w/ relative ease, not be taken the distance. But despite allowing more than 101 pts just one time, the Cavs needed a full seven games. Tristan Thompson and George Hill stepped up big on Sunday, but overall James had little to no help in the series. LeBron led the team in all five major statistical categories and scored 3x as much as any other Cav. The quick turnaround between series does the visitors no favors here. Let's not forget Cleveland barely outscored its opponents during the regular season. It would take another superhuman effort from James just for the Cavs to have a chance here and I can't see him averaging 34.4 PPG on 55% shooting again like he did vs. the Pacers. 10* Toronto

8* Under San Jose/Vegas (10:05 ET): The Sharks have "stolen" away home ice advantage from the Golden Knights by virtue of a 4-3 overtime win in Game 2. That was a nice bounce back from a disastrous 7-0 loss in Game 1 where they faced an insane TEN Vegas' power play chances, killing "only" seven of them. At the same time, San Jose's own PP was 0 for 5 in the series opener. We've now seen B2B games w/ seven total goals scored, one w/ all the scoring coming from one side and the other with a more even distribution. I think what we can expect for Game 3 in San Jose is a lower-scoring game. Take the Under.

In Vegas' 1st round series sweep of the Kings, the Under was 3-0-1. They allowed just three total goals in those four games while scoring just seven themselves. After just two games in this series, we've seen more goals scored and more allowed than the four against the Kings! Actually, it took just one game to equal the number of goals scored vs. the Kings while Game 2 Saturday saw them give up more than they had in the previous five combined. After starting the playoffs w/ three shutouts in five games, it was only natural for some regression from the Golden Knights, but I expect goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury to be a lot better in Game 3. He faced 47 shots in Game 2, so he still has an outstanding .967 save percentage in these playoffs. 

San Jose's Martin Jones has a .931 save percentage in the playoffs. Similar to Vegas, this series has gone a lot differently than the Sharks' first. In sweeping Anaheim, they allowed just four goals in four games. The Golden Knights obviously blew by that number in just one game and I have to say I'm surprised they have 10 goals on just 63 shots so far. Part of that was the ridiculous number of power play chances they enjoyed in Game 1. As for the Sharks, they had their own eight-goal game against the Ducks, but other than that they have not scored more than three times in regulation in any game in the playoffs. Both teams finished the regular season in the top 10 in penalty killing (San Jose #2), so as long as they cut down on the number of penalties, the # of PP goals should naturally go down. Both teams have already had 12 PPG chances in two games, which is a lot. 8* Under San Jose/Vegas 

10* Boston (8:05 ET): Well, according to oddsmakers and pundits, it seems as if a "changing of the guard" has already taken place even before this series has begun. Going into Sunday, Philadelphia was the betting favorite to win the Eastern Conference (though that could change based on Cleveland advancing). But what is for certain is that the Sixers are favored not only to win this series (-400 odds last I looked!); they're favored in Boston for Game 1. Given the Celtics' lack of health, maybe that shouldn't be a surprise. Plus, Philly has won 20 of its last 21 games. But I'll hang my hat w/ the home dog that is getting no respect here, noting the fact they were #1 in defensive efficiency during the regular season. A long layoff also could leave the 76ers a tad rusty. Take the points.

These teams met four times during the regular season w/ Boston winning three of them. But not much can be ascertained by those individual results, considering the Celtics had Irving and the Sixers hadn't totally matured yet. The last meeting, which took place all the way back on January 18th, saw Philadelphia win here in Boston by a score of 89-80. Going into that game, the Sixers' record was 20-20. They finished the regular season at 52-30 and the finished off the Heat in just five games in Round 1. Three of the four wins were by double-digits, but don't think for a second that the Celtics are on par w/ the Heat. The homecourt advantage in Boston is very real as is evident by the fact the Celtics won all four home games in Round 1. 

Boston is also 20-7 ATS as a dog this season, including a perfect 8-0 at home (7-1 straight up)! So, when they're undervalued like this, it's often the best time to strike. Going to back to them losing the last regular season matchup to the Sixers, Brad Stevens' team is a remarkable 65-36 ATS playing w/ revenge the L3 seasons, including 20-5 ATS this season. Now, I realize they don't have Irving and could also be without Jaylen Brown in Game 1. But the defense is the key. After a shaky start to the Milwaukee series, the Celtics allowed an average of just 93.3 PPG the last three games. The Sixers, as successful as they've been down the stretch, still allow an average of 107.1 PPG on the road. Then there is the matter of that 20-1 SU stretch, will be difficult (if not impossible) to maintain. 10* Boston 

8* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): Three home teams lost Game 1 of their respective second round series. Two of them, Washington and Nashville, were able to avenge those losses Sunday. Tampa Bay looks to keep the trend going tonight. The Lightning, who finished w/ the most points in the Eastern Conference and the best goal differential in the league, were pretty much dominated by the Bruins Saturday afternoon in a 6-2 loss. Well, except in one area. They had a 36-24 edge in shots on goal. Thus, it was a pretty head-scratching performance in goal from Andrei Vasilevskiy, who entered the series in far sharper form compared to his counterpart Tuukka Rask. Vasilevskiy finished Round 1 w/ a .941 save percentage while Rask was at a woeful .890. Even more frustrating for the Lightning is that Boston was less than 48 hrs removed from a hard-fought Game 7 win over Toronto, yet appeared to be the sharper of the two teams. I expect TB to bounce back tonight in Game 2. 

It was a home loss to Florida (who had NOTHING to play for) on the final day of the regular season that caught Boston first place in the Atlantic and thus gave the Lightning home ice advantage for this series. But they've now stolen back that advantage w/ the Game 1 win. Most shocking of all is that they scored five goals on only 10 shots over the final two periods. They've now beaten the Lightning in four of five head to head meetings this season and won five of their last six trips to Amelia Arena. Still though, I just can't see the Lightning dropping B2B home games. This is a team that is now 32-14-3 on home ice and won all three games here in the 1st round vs. New Jersey. Also, Tampa Bay was #1 in the league in goals scored per game (3.5) during the regular season. 

The key to beating Boston is neutralizing the top line of Bergeron, Pastrnak and Marchand. In the Bruins' five playoff wins, the trio has 41 points. In their three losses, they have zero. Easier said than done, but I believe the Lightning are more than capable of shutting that line down here. The Lightning do not lose B2B games very often. They had only six losing streaks all season (none more than three games!) and four of those involved a road loss. Only one time since January have they dropped B2B home games. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Washington (7:05 ET): The Pirates have to be feeling pretty good about themselves coming into this series as they just swept the Cardinals over the weekend. They've won five in a row overall and lead the NL Central w/ a record of 17-11. But the entirety of the current win streak took place at home. Now they have to hit the road and face the Nationals in the Nation's capital. The last time the Bucs hit the road, they were swept in Philadelphia. Washington comes into this series w/ surprising 4-9 home record and they're just 12-16 overall. They avoided a sweep on Sunday by beating the Diamondbacks, 3-1. Despite the losing record, the Nats have outscored the opposition this season (admittedly, by only three runs). I like them tonight in the series opener. 

Gio Gonzalez led the way Sunday afternoon w/ eight strikeouts in seven innings. The Nats will be hoping for something similar here from tonight's starter, Tanner Roark, who despite a 1-4 TSR has a 3.77 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Over his last three starts, Roark has a 0.895 WHIP, yet has nothing to show for it w/ the team going 0-3. He's allowed just 11 hits in 19 IP, yet been charged w/ eight runs. That's unlucky just like the team start record. One would have to think if Roark continues to pitch the way he has, that the wins will start coming. He has thrown eight scoreless innings of five-hit ball against Pittsburgh before, in this ballpark no less (back in 2016). Visting teams are batting just .194 so far here in D.C.. At the same time, I have to think the Nats' hitting will start to improve here at home as they're averaging just 3.2 runs per game here thus far. 

Pittsburgh also got a strong starting pitching performance yday, theirs coming from a rookie that was making his big-league debut. Nick Kingham retired the first 20 batters he saw, striking out nine in the process, en route to a 5-0 win over the Cards. If I'm a Pirates fan, I'd be less optimistic about Jameson Taillon tonight. Tallion got off to a good start in 2018, but has delivered B2B poor outings, including his last time out where he surrendered seven runs on 10 hits in just 3 2/3 IP. That followed up a 1 2/3 inning outing where he allowed five runs. Supporters will point to Taillon's B2B scoreless efforts before that, but note those came against the Reds and Marlins, the two worst teams the Senior Circuit has to offer. I was not high on the Bucs coming into the season while the Nats have been one of the NL's bigger disappointments thus far. I believe things begin to start "working themselves out" tonight. 10* Washington

10* Under Jazz/Rockets (3:30 ET): It's a quick turnaround between series for Utah, who just eliminated Oklahoma City Friday night. It took them six games in what should NOT be considered an upset as they had the better point differential and net efficiency rating in the regular season. This Jazz team must be taken seriously as their record since MLK day is a remarkable 33-8 SU. Now a second round tilt w/ Houston will be a far greater challenge than what they faced vs. the poorly constructed Thunder, yet the same could be said for Houston as the Jazz will be a much stiffer challenge than the defensively challenged Timberwolves. In fact, Utah was #2 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. That's a big reason why I am on the Under in Game 1. 

It only took five games for the Rockets to eliminate the T'wolves. Offensively, they got off to a slow start in that series, failing to hit their season average in scoring in each of the first three games. Consider that Minnesota was only 22nd in defensive efficiency. The Rockets scored 119 and 122 pts in the final two games, but it didn't come easy in Game 4 as they shot only 43.5%. Minnesota may have actually provided a "blueprint" of sorts for Utah to defend likely MVP James Harden. The T'wolves dropped Karl-Anthony Towns back in the pain in a "rim protection strategy" that seemed to work most of the time. Utah employing something similar w/ Rudy Gobert, a much better defender than Towns, would likely be even more effective. The Jazz were one only two teams (Spurs) in the regular season that allowed fewer than 100 PPG. Three times, they held OKC under the century mark and over the last five games, they allowed an average of only 98.2 PPG. 

But not all the news is good for Utah coming into this series. Starting point guard Ricky Rubio could be out for as many as 10 days and will definitely miss Game 1. That's a killer on the offensive end as Rubio was having a career year. Also, the Jazz were swept by the Rockets in the regular season series, losing the four games by an average of 17.5 points per game. The Jazz scored 101 pts or fewer in three of the four games and actually saw their scoring decrease w/ each passing game. They also failed to score 100 pts in the last two games vs. Oklahoma City. 10* Under Jazz/Rockets

10* Over Penguins/Capitals (3:05 ET): Ghosts of "playoffs past" certainly seemed to rear their head yet again in Game 1 of this Penguins-Capitals series. In personally selecting the Pens for Gm 1, I wrote about the history of this rivalry in the postseason, which has been one-sided to say the least. Of the 10 all-time series these two rivals have played, the Pens have won NINE of them. So when they came back from a 2-0 deficit in the third period Thursday (won 3-2), it had to feel a bit like "old hat" for fans of the Caps. Now Washington not only lost Game 1 of their first round series (vs. Columbus), they lost the first two games. So them giving away home ice advantage and still being successful is not w/o precedent. Still, I'm not as inclined to bet against them in Game 2. 

Washington struck quickly in Game 1, scoring in the first 17 seconds. From there, they'd only scored one more goal. It came, ironically, in the first minute of the third period. But it was the Penguins that obviously "laughed last" w/ three goals in the final 18 minutes. Obviously, neither team generally has issues scoring. But the fact the Capitals gave up three goals - all in the third period - on just 25 shots has to be disconcerting, especially given the past playoff problems w/ the Penguins. Then again, maybe we shouldn't be all that surprised. Pittsburgh had no difficulty in finding the back of the net in their 1st round series w/ Philadelphia, scoring 28 goals in six games, including 25 in their four wins. Also, remember something else I said in my Game 1 analysis. Capitals' goalie Braden Holtby posted a career-worst .907 save percentage in the regular season. 

Also, remember that leading scorer Evgeni Malkin didn't even play for the Pens. He is probable to return for Game 2. Pittsburgh, as I said in the Game 1 analysis, was #1 in the league in even strength goals in the second half of the season. They also have the #1 rated power play over the course of the league. Washington has killed off 18 consecutive PP's dating back to Game 2 of the 1st round series, but that streak is due to end. This analysis may read like yet another endorsement of the Pens, but let's not forget the Caps can score too. They had more power play goals than anyone in Round 1 (33.3%). Penguins' goalie Matt Murray posted a .907 save percentage in the regular season as well, same as Holtby. 10* Over Penguins/Capitals

10* Baltimore (1:05 ET): The Orioles returned to their losing ways on Saturday, falling 9-5. This on the heels of a 6-0 victory Friday that I was on. In my analysis for Friday's opener, I made mention that the O's came into this series w/ revenge as the Tigers had swept them (in Detroit) earlier in the month. The outlook is admittedly looking bleak for Baltimore in 2018, but I still have faith they can fight back and take this series. It's not as if the Tigers are any "great shakes" this season either. This game carries a lot of importance to the home team as it has a chance to mark the Orioles' first winning home series of the season! They send Kevin Gausman to the bump and after a rocky first outing, he's been much better of late. Go w/ Baltimore, who has been the bettors choice throughout this three-game set. 

In his 1st start of the year, Gausman was tagged for six runs in a loss to Minnesota. Since then, he's been a lot better, posting a 3.24 ERA in four starts. Last time out, he went eight innings and allowed just two runs on four hits. The team still lost mind you, but that was to a good Cleveland team (2-1). That makes it three straight quality starts for Gausman, two of them the team has failed to take advantage of. Coincidentially, one of them came against these Tigers as he went six innings and allowed just two runs (both on solo HR's). Baltimore lost that game 6-5 despite scoring four times in the final two innings. A three-run eighth temporarily gave them a 4-2 lead, only for the bullpen to give it right back. The O's then tied the game back up at 5-5 w/ a run in the top of the ninth, only to lose on a Dixon Machado walk-off HR. It's been "that kind of season" in Baltimore, quite frankly.

The Tigers' offense came into yesterday's game on a 22-inning scoreless streak, having been shutout in B2B games. They were able to jump out to a 7-0 lead though and that proved to be more than enough despite the Orioles' late attempt at a rally. Baltimore's offense has scored 16 runs total the L3 games. Tonight, they'll face Daniel Norris, who has made only one start in 2018 for the Tigers and it came against the sorry Royals. Sadly for Norris, he was not successful as the team lost 3-2. He only allowed one run on three hits, but he lasted only 4 2/3 innings and had three walks as well. Norris has worked out of the bullpen this season (four additional appearances), including in the second game of Wednesday's doubleheader vs. the Pirates. There he allowed one run and two hits in 2 IP. At the end of the day, I have to think Baltimore takes this one as they're due to start playing a little better, at least at home. 10* Baltimore

10* Golden State (10:35 ET): Both of these teams made it look pretty easy in Round 1. With Golden State, that really wasn't much of a surprise as they were facing a depleted San Antonio squad (minus Kawhi Leonard) that also was dealing w/ the wife of their head coach passing away. The Warriors didn't sweep, but considering they were w/o Steph Curry (questionable to play tonight), finishing the series in five games has to be considered a "victory" in every sense of the word. Three of the four victories came by double digits. As for New Orleans, arguably no team in the playoffs has exceeded expectations any more than they have. They shockingly swept Portland, also going 4-0 ATS in the process. The Pelicans have now covered nine in a row, but I think they're overvalued coming into this series. Lay the points. 

Over the last three seasons, New Orleans has beaten Golden State only once in 11 tries. That came in the final regular season meeting this year, 126-120, right here in Oakland. That game was played earlier this month and while the Warriors did have Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson all active, they were a different team at the time. All three of those players, in addition to Curry, had missed time due to injury and were still trying to "get their legs back." Both teams shot the ball remarkably well in that game, but Golden State getting to the free throw line only 11 times (and making just 7) really hurt in the end. The "wild card" here is Curry's potential return, which will happen sometime in this series, possibly as early as tonight. Incredibly, New Orleans is 2-26 SU the L28 meetings w/ Golden State, including a four-game sweep in the first round back in 2015. 

That sweep was the only time previous to this year that Anthony Davis had ever been in the postseason. He certainly made this chance count w/ a dominant effort against the Blazers as he averaged 33 points and 12 rebounds per game. But I see no way the Pelicans perform as well here as they did in Round 1. Of the eight playoff teams in the Western Conference, New Orleans had the worst point differential in the regular season. I think the draw vs. Portland was a fortunate one as the Blazers were lucky to finish third in the Conference. The Pelicans' poor defensive numbers may also come back to haunt them in this series as they gave up 110.4 PPG in the reg season, most among all playoff teams. Golden State was again the top team in offensive efficiency this year and led the league w/ a 113.5 PPG scoring average. The Dubs are also always underrated defensively as they finished tied for seventh in efficiency during the regular season. This is a team that has lost only two games in its last five playoff series. Curry or no Curry, I see the Warriors taking Game 1 rather easily. 10* Golden State

8* Over Bucks/Celtics (8:05 ET): The home team has won all six games of this best of seven series, so here we are in Boston for Game 7 Saturday. Quite frankly, I was not crazy about either of these teams coming into the postseason as Milwaukee was the lone team in the field to be outscored during the regular season while Boston is injury-riddled, most notably being w/o Kyrie Irving. There was a string of shockingly good shooting performances, from either one side or both, in the first four games (all Overs). But that has quickly changed w/ B2B Unders in the L2 games, both of which saw 183 or less total pts scored. Thus, the O/U line is way down here compared to where it's been previously in this series. Though the Celtics' calling card is defense, I'll call for Game 7 to go Over the low number. 

Boston finished the regular season #1 in the NBA in defensive efficiency. However, Milwaukee is shooting better than 50% from the field in this series. Really, the Bucks have had only one bad shooting night in the entire series and that was the last game here in Boston, Game 5 on Tuesday. They bounced back and stayed alive by shooting 50.7% in a 97-86 Game 6 win, which also doubled as their best defensive effort of the series as well. Looking strictly at shooting percentages in this series, one would think Milwaukee should have already advanced. Boston is shooting only 42.7% in the six games and that number would be even lower if not for shooting 53.3% in Game 2. In all other games, they've been 42% or lower. Looking through all the numbers from this series, something else that sticks out is how bad the three-point shooting has been the past two games. The teams have combined to go just 37 of 126, which is an ugly 29.3% 

That three-point shooting can only improve here and at home, I certainly think Boston will shoot better tonight. The Bucks do allow 107.8 PPG on the road for the season. While Game 5 was a bit of an "ugly win," the Celtics did score 113 and 120 pts respectively in Game 1 and 2 victories here at home. Bucks' games average more than 212 PPG for the year, so this total is really low from their perspective. In fact, it is very likely to close as the lowest O/U line for any of their games this season! For the record, the Over is 3-0 in Milwaukee games this season when the O/U line is 197.0 or lower. Two of the three games even saw at least 217 pts scored. Even from Boston's perspective, this O/U line is low. You just don't see many NBA totals at 195 pts or lower anymore. 8* Over Bucks/Celtics

8* Toronto (4:07 ET): The Rangers came North of the Border and surprised the Blue Jays yday, winning 6-4 as +135 underdogs on the money line. Will they do it again? Not likely. The last two seasons have been quite interesting to evaluate in Arlington. In 2016, the team won the AL West w/ 95 wins, but only outscored its opponents by EIGHT runs the entire season! That disparity was owed to the best record EVER (in MLB history!) in one-run games as they went 36-11. Last year, they predictably dipped to 78 wins and were just 13-24 in one-run game (worst mark in MLB!). Obviously, you'd expect the record in one-run games to be somewhere in the middle for 2018 (currently 1-2), but the overall outlook is not particularly rosy for a team that is in last place w/ a -37 run differential despite B2B wins. Third place in the division is probably this team's "ceiling" and even that might be generous. 

As for Toronto, a bounce back season was to be expected this year. They got off to a 14-8 start, but have now dropped three in a row following yday's result. They've dropped six of eight overall w/ the other losses coming to the Red Sox and Yankees. With those two in the same division, Toronto's ceiling is probably also third place this year, but a Wild Card is a real possibility for a team that has still outscored opponents by 25 runs. This is their longest losing streak to date in '18 and I see them bouncing back this afternoon against what is pretty clearly an inferior foe. After going a MLB-worst 5-14 in extra inning games LY, you'd think the Blue Jays would be afforded some better luck this year. 

The ageless Bartolo Colon finally had a bad start for the Rangers his last time out. After allowing only one run in B2B starts, including a stunning one-hit effort (for 7 2/3 innings) at Houston, Colon came back down to Earth exactly seven days ago when he allowed four runs in 5 2/3 IP to Seattle. Texas lost the game 9-7, though I'll concede that was more the bullpen's fault. The Rangers' bullpen has been surprisingly good on the road thus far, but I don't see that continuing. Toronto counters w/ Jaime Garcia, who should give them a better effort here than Marcus Stroman did yday. Garcia already pitched against the Rangers once this year and beat Cole Hamels. He's backed by a Toronto offense that is still averaging 6.0 rpg at home and should have scored more yday, given all the problems in the field Texas had. But the Blue Jays' own baserunning gaffes cost them. Today should be a more "normal" affair w/ the home team winning. 8* Toronto

8* Tampa Bay (3:05 ET): As I mentioned yday, we've got one heck of a quartet of second round matchups in the NHL playoffs. This one is the Eastern Conference's equivalent to the Winnipeg-Nashville series out West in the sense that it matches up the two teams that had the most points in the regular season. Tampa Bay won the Atlantic Division on the final day of the regular season thanks to Boston losing at home to Florida. The Lightning finished w/ 113 points while the Bruins had 112. Arguably, it was Boston's number of OT losses (12) that probably cost them. The Bruins did take three of four from the Lightning in the regular season, but TB won the most recent meeting (here at home) in shutout fashion (4-0). That win snapped a five-game losing streak to the Bruins here on home ice.

While it only took the Lightning five games to oust the Devils in Round 1, the Bruins series w/ the Maple Leafs went the distance w/ Game 7 just taking place on Wednesday. Though Boston did win 7-4, note that they actually trailed going into the third period. So there could be a case of fatigue heading into Round 2. Meanwhile, the Lightning have been off for a full week relaxing. Though the Bruins twice scored seven goals in a game during the Toronto series, it was Tampa Bay that led the league in scoring during the regular season and they are now 32-12-3 on home ice after winning all three games here in the first round series. In Games 1 & 2 vs. New Jersey, they scored five times. 

Tampa Bay does have the edge offensively coming into this series as they not only ranked #1 in the league in goals per game during the regular season, but their power play percentage (23.9) was slightly higher than that of the Bruins (teams ranked #3 and #4 in that department). The Lightning PP was 5 for 9 in the first three games vs. NJ, before going 0 for 10 in the final two. Boston's PP is just 2 for its last 12 and the Lightning's penalty killing was superb in Rd 1, going 16 for 19. Overall, I believe the Lightning to be the deeper team here as the Bruins are highly dependent on that top line. Tampa Bay has the stronger blue line and they definitely look to have the edge in goal as Andrei Vasilevskiy posted a .941 save percentage in Round 1 while Boston's Tuukka Rask was at a woeful .890. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Many (not me) were high on Milwaukee coming into this season due to a bevy of offseason activity. But I view them as pretty clearly the third best team in their division (NL Central) even though they're off to a 16-11 start and have spent a good deal of time in first place. One thing is for certain and that's the Brew Crew are having problems w/ the Cubs, whom they are now just 1-5 against this season after taking two one-run losses to start this series. Normally, that might make me more "sympathetic" to the Brewers' cause, but consider they had a record propped up by a 6-2 mark in one-run games before coming to Wrigley Field this weekend. I was on the Cubs in the series opener Thursday (won 1-0) and will go back to them today as they look to make it three in a row in the Freindly Confines. 

While 5-1 against the Brewers and 8-9 vs. everyone else, the Cubs own a +30 run differential for the season. That's three times the number Milwaukee has outscored its opponents by (+10) despite the Brewers having the better overall record. To me, scoring differential has always been a better predictor of future outcomes than a team's actual won-loss record. The Brew Crew are having a really tough time scoring against the Cubs this season as they've already been shutout THREE times by them. In the six head to head matchups, they've managed only nine runs total and five of those came in the lone victory. For the Cubs, it's been nice to win w/o having to score a lot of runs. Prior to this series beginning, they'd gone just 6-5 their last 11 games. In the six wins, they never scored fewer than eight runs. In the five losses, they never scored more than three. 

Both of Saturday's starting pitchers have been successful each of the L3 starts. However. Milwaukee's Junior Guerra has a far better ERA and WHIP than the Cubs' Jose Quintana. Why side w/ Chicago, then? Well, for starters (pun intended!), Quintana already shut this Brewers offense down once this season, holding them scoreless for six innings back on April 8th. He allowed only three hits and that was one of the three times Milwaukee failed to score against the Cubs in 2018. Quintana has since been shaky his L2 starts, but we'll excuse him as one (vs. Atlanta) came in a torrential downpour w/ very cold temperatures while the other was in Colorado (high altitude). Guerra has yet to go a full six innings in any start this year and two of his three starts came against Miami and Cincinnati (two worst teams in the National League). Oh, by the way, Quintana has a 0.75 ERA in five career starts vs. the Brewers. 8* Chi Cubs

10* Kansas City (8:15 ET): In this weekend battle of miserable teams, the White Sox took the series opener by a score of 6-3 on Thursday. For tonight's rematch, we've got one "heck" of a pitching matchup with Reynaldo Lopez starting for Chicago and Danny Duffy going for Kansas City. The two pitchers have combined for an 0-9 team start record thus far (Lopez 0-4, Duffy 0-5), so something is going to have to give here. It's going to take a lot for me to endorse KC in 2018 (won't happen much!), but at the same time going against the White Sox at this price seems very reasonable. Following a win, Chicago is only 1-4 this season.

The White Sox have won only six games this season. Three of those wins have come against the Royals. They actually opened the season by taking B2B games from KC here at Kauffman Stadium. Going into yday, they'd lost 16 of 19 games since and were 0-4 off a win. (So, yes, the 2-0 start is the only time all season they've won B2B games). I don't see history repeating itself here, however. Last night saw KC actually outhit Chicago, 11-9, but the Southsiders made their hits count as every run scored came via a home run. There were five total HR's hit, four solo shots. That's just bad luck if you're a Royals fan. Now Duffy did allow three longballs in a somewhat disastrous start vs. Chicago to open the year. But he's allowed only one since and had gotten a lot better, that was until his most recent start, which came on the road (at Detroit). Prior to that, Duffy had allowed 3 ER or less in three consecutive outings. 

Lopez actually deserves far better than an 0-4 TSR. The White Sox starter has allowed just four runs total this year in 24 IP. However, he does have control issues w/ 13 walks the L3 starts. Last time out, he had twice as many walks (4) as strikeouts (2), which is never a good sign. Incredibly, the offense has scored just four times in the four starts he's made. Something to note here is that Chicago will be w/o its manager Rick Renteria due to the passing of his mother. The Royals are just 1-10 at home this season and while that's not encouraging, the record can only get better. I'm on Kansas City tonight. 10* Kansas City

10* Over Jets/Predators (8:10 ET): Of the four second round series in the NHL playoffs, this one may be the best as Winnipeg and Nashville finished w/ 114 and 117 points respectively, which was 2nd and 1st in the entire league. The Jets now carry the weight of an entire country on their skates as they are the only Canadian team left in the field. (As you may be aware, no Canadian franchise has won the Stanley Cup since Montreal did it in '93). Of course, the President's Trophy winners (Nashville) are not w/o motivation here either after losing to Pittsburgh in LY's Stanley Cup Final. I expect this to be a great series (probably goes long) and for Game 1 I don't really have any read on the side. But I do expect the game to go Over the total. 

These teams met five times in the regular season. Predictably, the results were close w/ the Preds winning three of the five matchups, none of which were decided by more than two goals. But what you may find surprising is how high scoring the games were. Four of the games went Over as eight or more goals were scored in each game in that quartet. The one Under, won by Nashville (here at home), was a 3-1 final. The number of shots on goal in the regular season matchups were jaw-droppingly high. Nashville averaged 35.2 shots per game while Winnipeg averaged 36.0 per game! That's a ton of shots obviously. Of course, both teams ranked in the top seven in goals per game in the regular season as well (Winnipeg 2nd). They were both inside the top three when it comes to even strength scoring. 

Nashville also had little difficulty scoring in its first round series vs. Colorado. It may have taken six games to oust the Avs, but the Preds averaged 3.7 goals on 35.3 shots per game. They scored at least three goals in every game but one and scored five in three of their four victories. Winnipeg only needed five games to eliminate Minnesota and is off B2B shutouts. But in their one loss in the series, the Jets did allow six goals. The Under did cash in each of the Predators' last three games, but those all had O/U lines of 6.0 and the Over is 5-1 this season when the Preds are on a streak of three or more consecutive Unders. Goalie Pekka Rinne's 1st round save percentage was only .909 and the Over is 21-15 in his 36 home starts this season. Take the Over in Game 1. 10* Over Jets/Predators

10* Over Cavaliers/Pacers (8:05 ET): To quote Whitesnake, "Here I go again, on my own." The low-scoring nature of this series (Under is 5-0!) has flat out stunned me given Cleveland's poor defensive marks during the regular season. They ranked 28th in the league in efficiency, ahead of only the Kings and Suns (you're probably sick of me saying that at this point). Coming into this series, had you told me that the Cavs would hold Indiana to 100 pts or less in five straight games, I might have guessed the series would be over at this point. But it's not and LeBron James had to (again!) bail his team out w/ an incredible block & then three-pointer in the closing seconds Wednesday. (Goaltend or not, the Cavs still would have won). As for Indiana, we're starting to see their record in close games regress, which is something I would have predicted coming into the playoffs. 

The Cavs were shockingly blown out on their home floor in Game 1, losing 98-80. Since then, they've come back to take the series lead w/ all four games decided by four points or less. Now, they try and close out the Pacers on the road. Again, I'm not shocked to see Indiana losing close games here. They were a league-best 11-2 SU in games decided by three points or less during the regular season, which is obviously extraordinarily fortunate. While they did win Game 3 at home, 92-90, note they were down by 17 at halftime. Really, Cleveland dominated much of the way in Games 2-4. Game 5 was a back and forth affair w/ the Cavs rallying this time behind an incredible James performance that saw him go for 44 pts (15-15 FT's!), 10 rebounds and 8 assists. 

What has surprised me in this series is how low-scoring it has been. The Cavs still are averaging 109.9 PPG for the year, even though they haven't hit that average once in this series. The same can be said for the Pacers and their YTD scoring average of 105.0 PPG (which jumps to 106.4 at home). Both teams finished ranked inside the top 12 in offensive efficiency during the regular season w/ Cleveland 5th. Of course, the Cavs also allow 109.1 PPG, second most among playoff teams (New Orleans). Three-point shooting has generally been poor (from both teams) in this series and really we've gone three straight games w/o either team shooting the ball particularly well overall. I'll call for that streak to come to an end here in Game 6. It's not like the teams aren't scoring. All five games have seen the team w/ the halftime lead score at least 55 pts. The current Under streak (now at six games) is the longest for Cleveland all season. 10* Over Cavaliers/Pacers

8* Run Line Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rays +1.5. Its the other of the two games in this package where the team I'm taking has revenge for a prior sweep. In the case of the Rays, they are actually 1-6 head to head w/ Boston so far this season, having beaten them on Opening Day, but then losing six in a row. That includes a three-game sweep in Fenway earlier this month. Now, a lot of teams have been losing to Boston in what has been a historically great start for them. Following that Opening Day loss to the Rays, the Red Sox would go onto win 17 of their next 18 games and they now stand at 19-5 following consecutive wins at Toronto. But Tampa Bay also comes into this series hot, having won six in a row. I'm confident in saying they'll do no worse than a one-run loss here as the RL is a solid price.

It also would appear that TB has the starting pitching edge tonight w/ Blake Snell taking the mound. Snell has a 2.54 ERA and 0.988 WHIP in five starts and he's been particularly strong in the last three where his ERA and WHIP are 1.40 and 0.828 respectively. During that stretch, he's three runs in 19 1/3 IP (allowed 1 run in every start) on just 10 hits and has a 25-5 KW ratio (all five walks came in one start, but he doesn't have any the last two). The Rays have also won all three games. Really, he has only one bad start and it came at Yankee Stadium. The other four, he's allowed 1 or 0 ER every time. He was a hard luck loser to Boston in his 1st start of '18 as he threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings of three-hit ball only for the team to fall 1-0 at home. Dating back to last seaosn, Snell is now 8-2 w/ a 2.74 ERA his L15 starts. 

In this historic start of theirs, Boston has had some good fortune, namely a MLB-best 7-1 record in one-run games. No one else is even close to that. All three games in the previous series (vs. Toronto) were decided by one run. So calling for a one-run game here is not w/o precedent and either way it would be a win for us. But I also wouldn't be surprised to see the streaking Rays "steal one" here either, not just b/c of the revenge angle, but also b/c they are facing Drew Pomeranz, who simply was not very good in his first outing. It took place exactly one week ago and while the Red Sox won, Pomeranz allowed three runs in just 3 2/3 innings of work. Here, he'll be facing a Rays lineup that has scored 46 runs during its win streak, including eight or more in each of the last five games. Again, no worse than a one-run loss for the revenge-minded Rays here. 8* Run Line Tampa Bay (+1.5)

8* Baltimore (7:05 ET): This is the first of two plays today where I'll be taking the team that is looking to avenge a prior sweep. It was just a little over a week ago that the Tigers swept the Orioles in a three-game set in the Motor City. But they've since gone just 3-4 over the last seven games. Their last series was played under NL rules vs. Pittsburgh. Now Baltimore is not a good team and its outlook appears to be quite bleak for 2018. They've started 6-19 and have dropped five in a row. Chris Tillman gets the starting nod tonight and he's 0-4 in four starts w/ a 9.87 ERA and 2.366 WHIP. But I'm a firm believer in this revenge angle and this is the rare spot that the O's should handle. 

Thanks to the current losing streak, Baltimore has passed both Miami and Cincinnati for the worst run differential in all of MLB. So I concede that this price may not represent the best value, especially w/ Tillman pitching. Now having already faced the likes of Boston, the Yankees, Cleveland and Houston this year (inarguably the top four teams in the American League), it should come as no surprise to see the Orioles floundering. That said, they did just drop two games here at home to the Rays (opener was rained out). Tonight may be "it" for Tillman, if he doesn't pitch well, but the good news is that he's 6-1 all-time vs. Detroit w/ a 3.12 ERA. Also, the Tigers don't hit as well on the road (.237 BA). I know it was under NL rules, meaning the pitcher had to bat, but they were shutout yday in Pittsburgh thanks to going 0 for 9 w/ RISP. It was already the third time this season that the Tigers have been shutout (two of those on the road).

With the AL Central projected to be very weak this season, I thought there was a chance Detroit would bounce back a bit after losing 98 games in 2017 (had AL's worst run differential as well). They certainly should be better than the Royals and White Sox. Right now, the Tigers are in second place in the division, but only 10-13 overall. They're also - curiously - only 1-8 in night games. Starting tonight will be Michael Fiers, who is off to a reasonably good start, but that's pretty much owed to his first start when he got to face the White Sox. Last time out, he was fortunate to surrender only four runs (just two earned) as he allowed 10 hits in 5 1/3 IP. He also finished w/ ZERO strikeouts. His start before that saw him hammered to the tune of six runs in 5 2/3 IP. If only for a night, I see Tillman and the Orioles turning things around here. 8* Baltimore

8* Vegas (10:05 ET): Both of these teams steamrolled the opposition in Round 1, sweeping their way right into the second round. Well, maybe "steamroll" is too strong a word in the case of Vegas. The Golden Knights did sweep the Kings, but all four wins came by one goal and they scored only six regulation goals in the series. In three of the four games, they scored only one time in regulation, yet that was enough thanks to two shutouts and one OT win. But I'm "done" questioning this remarkable team which has established new benchmarks for expansion franchises across all sports. Nowhere has that been more apparent than right here in "Sin City" where the team is now 31-10-2 for the season. I'm calling for them to take Game 1. 

San Jose was the only lower seeded team to win a first round series, but them ousting rival Anaheim can hardly be called an "upset," even if the convincing way that they did it was surprising. They allowed just four total goals in the series, outscoring the Ducks 16-4 overall. All four wins came in regulation. But a big key for the Sharks in the 1st round was going 6 for 20 on the power play. I don't see that repeating itself here in Round 2. Goals are likely to be at a premium here overall and the fact that San Jose was only a middling 15th in even strength goals per game during the regular season may come back to haunt them. Remember that they are without Joe Thornton as well. Against the Kings, Vegas goalie Marc-Andre Fleury posted a ridiculous 0.65 GAA as well as a .977 save percentage w/ two shutouts. That topped San Jose's Martin Jones, who had a 1.00 GAA and .970 save percentage. 

Vegas was 3-0-1 against San Jose in the regular season, taking both games at home. Something interesting to note here is that while the Golden Knights are 29-15 SU when facing teams w/ a winning record, the Sharks are below .500 in such games this year. That's even after sweeping Anaheim. San Jose was also outshot by Anaheim in Rd 1. They were outscored on the road this year too while Vegas has outscored its visitors by more than a full goal per game. Yes, eventually the cinderella Vegas team will turn back into a pumpkin. Just not here. 8* Vegas

8* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): These teams met earlier this month in Milwaukee w/ the Cubs taking three of four. The Brew Crew enter this second season series (at Wrigley) red hot as they've won eight in a row. But that win streak comes w/ a caveat as it's been built up at the expense of three of the very worst teams in baseball: the Reds, Marlins and Royals. Those three teams own a combined 17-53 record right now, so this is definitely a step up in class for Milwaukee. The Brewers might be 16-9 overall, but they've only outscored opponents by a 12-run margin this year and that run differential was firmly "in the red" (-19) before the current win streak began. The 11-10 Cubs actually own a significantly better run differential (+28) compared to the Brewers.

Like Milwaukee, the Cubs are coming off an Interleague series that was played on the road, meaning it's back to NL rules tonight. The Cubs split w/ the Indians on Tuesday/Wednesday in what was a rematch from a great 2016 World Series. Offensively, the Cubbies continue to be "feast or famine" as they've scored eight or more runs in five of the last eight games. All five times, they won. In the three losses, they've scored a total of six runs, including just one on five hits last night. Though Brewers' starter Chase Anderson has a 4-1 TSR along w/ some solid numbers (3.25 ERA, 1.048 WHIP), I see a pitcher that has already allowed six home runs this season. The Cubs were the ones that handed Anderson his only loss to date, beating him 3-0 back on April 8th. 

The Cubs are also 7-2 this year off a loss, so that speaks to a bounce back effort at the plate tonight. So does a return home where they are averaging a lofty 6.3 runs per game so far. The offense is both top five in slugging percentage and OBP. As for starting pitching, tonight Joe Maddon will give the baseball to Kyle Hendricks, who has allowed 3 ER or fewer in three of his previous four outings. Last time out, which was at Colorado (always a difficult place to pitch), Hendricks posted his best KW rate of the season at 6-0. A big key here for Hendricks is that he won't have to deal w/ Brewers 1B Eric Thames, who is out w/ a UCL tear in his thumb. Hendricks has pitched well in this past vs. Milwaukee, turning in a 3.01 ERA in 16 starts. While the Brewers have lost a key bat from their lineup, the Cubs may be getting Kris Bryant back here. Were it not for disparate records in one-run games (Brewers 6-2, Cubs 0-3), the NL Central standings would look much different coming into this game. The Cubs are the better team and I'll call for them to end Milwaukee's win streak. 8* Chi Cubs

10* Boston (8:05 ET): The home team has won and covered all five games in this series w/ the Celtics now holding a 3-2 lead after Tuesday's 92-87 win as 4.5-pt favorite. Personally, I went w/ the Under, which was a ridiculously easy winner (cashed by 25 pts) after each of the first four games finished Over the total. So now Milwaukee is facing elimination, but back home where they took both Games 3 and 4. Their second win came on a last-second tip-in by Giannis Antetokounmpo, but because Game 3 was so lopsided, the Bucks have actually outscored the Celtics in the series. But something I predicted for Game 5 came to fruition and that's Milwaukee's hot shooting of the past few games would start to cool off, thanks to a Boston defense which ranked #1 in efficiency during the regular season. Sure enough it did as the Bucks shot just 36.8% in Game 5. I'll hang my hat w/ that Boston defense yet again for Game 6, this time taking the points. 

The Celtics are no slouch when it comes to getting points. They are 20-6 ATS as dogs this season. They are also 28-14 ATS in road games. We've already touched on the defense, which has been the calling card under HC Brad Stevens. The Celtics allowed the fewest number of points per game in the regular season in addition to being first in efficiency. The loss of several players, most notably Kyrie Irving, has not and should not effect them at all on that end of the floor. Now, offensively, the team has struggled to shoot the ball in this series. They've shot just 43.8% in this series and that percentage would be much lower had they not connected at a 53.3% clip. But just like Milwaukee's previously hot shooting was due to hit a "speedbump," I feel Boston's is due to improve. Marcus Smart is also now back, remember.

Milwaukee is the only entrant in the playoff field that was outscored during the regular season. They trailed by as many as 16 points in Game 5. It was 18 turnovers from the Celtics, who were also scoreless for a five-minute stretch in the third quarter, that kept the Bucks in the game. If you followed my excellent NCAA Tournament run, then you already know how much I value play on the defensive end of the floor and especially when the better defensive team is getting points. The Bucks are also just 14-26-3 ATS in home games this season. 10* Boston

10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): A first round that was bereft of any true upsets has left us w/ four very good quarterfinal matchups in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. This one is interesting in that the team w/ the home ice advantage (Washington) is considered a slight underdog (for the series) even though they won the Metropolitan Division by five points over Pittsburgh. But the Penguins have certainly had the Capitals' number is past playoffs and that's putting it mildly. Of the 10 series these two rivals have played, the Pens have won NINE of them. In fact, they've eliminated the Caps each of the last two years en route to winning the Stanley Cup. They also finished w/ a slight better goal differential in the regular season, have the #1 power play in the league and were the hotter team down the stretch. I also give them the edge at even strength. Give me Pittsburgh in Game 1. 

Now I'm well aware that the Pens will be w/o two key "cogs" for tonight's series opener. Both Evgeni Malkin (team's leading scorer in the regular season) & Carl Hagelin (key part of PK unit) have been ruled out here due to undisclosed injuries. However, Pittsburgh had little problems scoring in the 1st round series vs. Philadelphia (28 goals in six games) that even a player of Malkin's caliber being out will not hurt them. Over the second half of the season, this team is #1 in the league in goals scored at even strength. In their four wins over the Flyers, they scored 25 times, a stunning number. Now Philly's goaltending was atrocious, but Washington has its own issues between the pipes. After not starting Game 1 of the first round series vs. Columbus, Braden Holtby was able to come in and "bail" the team out. However, Holtby also posted a career-worst .907 save percentage in the regular season. 

Remember that Washington dropped the first two games, both at home, in its first round series w/ Columbus. Led by Holtby, they roared back to take four straight over the Blue Jackets, but two of the wins came in overtime. The Capitals were actually outscored at even strength by C-bus, but the power play was magnificent as every game saw them score at least once w/ the man advantage. Overall, the Caps scored nine power play goals in the series. Problem here though is Pittsburgh had the top PP in the league during the regular season. The Penguins' blue line is also arguably stronger now than it has been either of the last two years. Against the Flyers, they allowed an average of only 24.2 shots per game. While they did allow five goals in the close out game Sunday (won 8-5), the Pens are 27-9 SU this season after allowing 4+ goals in the previous game. 10* Pittsburgh

10* Philadelphia (1:05 ET): The surprising Phillies squared this series up at one game apiece, beating Zack Greinke 5-3 last night. While Arizona has led the NL West virtually the entire way so far in 2018 (they're now 16-7 w/ a +33 run differential), Philly is right there w/ them at 15-8 and having a +31 run differential (even though they're not in 1st place in the NL East). This afternoon sees the two teams wrapping up this three-game set and I'm going with the undervalued Phils in this situation as they've already beaten the D'backs' top pitcher (Greinke), so I see them having little difficulty w/ Matt Koch, despite what the right-hander may have done in his 1st and only start of the season. The Phillies are now 10-2 at home this year, outscoring opponents by 3.4 rpg. 

The Phillies have won 14 of their last 18 games overall and last night saw them overcome more poor fielding to get the 'W.' They made three errors last night, upping their YTD total to 22 in 23 games, yet that shockingly has not hurt them. After a shaky fourth inning last night, Jake Arrieta settled down and allowed little else in his seven innings of work. The D'backs managed only five hits for the game, so I like the chances for tonight's starter Blake Lively, who already has a 3-1 team start record this season. Lively is coming off his best outing of the season so far as he allowed just one run on five hits last Friday vs. Pittsburgh. As alluded to earlier, the Phillies have been dominant here at Citizens Bank Park w/ the opposition averaging just 2.6 rpg while batting a collective .201. At the same time, the Phillies offense is averaging 6.0 runs per game! 

Given Arizona couldn't overcome all of Philly's mistakes in the field last night, it's difficult envisioning them winning here, presuming a cleaner effort by the home team. Starter Matt Koch looked good in his 2018 season debut last Friday, but keep in mind that was against lowly San Diego. Now the D'backs have won all seven series so far this season and are a perfect 6-0 off a loss, streaks that are on the line today/ But this is as tough a spot as they've faced to date as Philly is a dominant home team and we really don't know how trustworthy Koch really is. He's only in the D'backs rotation b/c of the season-ending injury to Taijuan Walker. Today marks just his fourth big-league start. 10* Philadelphia

10* Over Maple Leafs/Bruins (7:40 ET): Of the eight 1st round series in this year's Stanley Cup Playoffs, this one had the most total points between the two teams from the regular season. So in that regard, maybe we shouldn't be surprised that this thing has gone the distance, bringing us to a Game 7 Wednesday night in Boston. However, the Bruins (who certainly were on my short-list for potential Cup winners) have to enter tonight already feeling like they've let some opportunities "slip away." They led the series 3-1 before dropping Games 5 and 6 by scores of 4-3 and 3-1 respectively. That puts their back against the wall here, but at least they're at home where they've lost in regulation only nine times all year. I do favor the Bruins in this spot, but don't like the price. Therefore, to the total we go and I expect this game to be higher scoring than anticipated. So, take the Over. 

These teams have now met 10 times this season and the majority of those games have been high-scoring. None have featured fewer than four total goals scored and there's never been an instance where the teams combined for fewer than five in B2B contests. So the fact Game 6 was a 3-1 final pretty much "telegraphs" we should expect a higher-scoring game tonight. Boston has averaged 3.5 goals per game in the series and averages 3.7 gpg for the year here on home ice. That home average is third highest in the league, so we should certainly be able to count on the Bruins to hold "their end of the bargain" here. As for their situation between the pipes, goalie Tukka Rask has not been particularly sharp in this series (.909 save percentage) and he's definitely struggled the L4 games (.894 save percentage), most notably when he was pulled in Game 5 (last time here at home). 

Toronto, like Boston, ranked in the top six in goals per game in the league during the regular season. They actually ranked higher at 3rd overall. However, while Boston ranked 4th in the number in goals allowed per game, Toronto was outside the top 10. That's largely owed to the number of shots they allow, which has gotten no better in this series. They've allowed an average of 34.5 shots per game so far w/ the Bruins getting 40 or more in three of the six games. Frederik Andersen has definitely kept his team in the series, but the Over is also 20-12 this season in road starts made by the Leafs' netminder. Back to Rask; he's just 5-11 SU in elimination games in his career, including 1-2 in Game 7's. So he's come up small in this spot before, even allowing four goals on 28 shots in his one Game 7 win, which came in 2013 against ... Toronto. 10* Over Maple Leafs/Bruins

10* Boston (7:05 ET): Following a historic 17-2 start (w/ one of the losses taking place Opening Day!), all of a sudden the Red Sox have dropped three in a row. They've scored just four runs total in losing to the A's twice (were no-hit in one of the games) and then here in Toronto last night. They've also struck out a total of 34 times. But I'll call for them to get back on track Wednesday. Over the previous three seasons, Boston is 14-5 when entering a game on a losing streak of three or more games and let's not forget the Blue Jays weren't exactly playing well coming into this series either. They'd dropped three of four in New York and while they won last night in spite of giving up two runs in the top of the ninth, they did so on a walk-off HR (in the 10th) and were held to only five hits. 

Before Curtis Granderson's walk-off, the Blue Jays had done all of their scoring in the second inning last night. They put three on the board in that frame, but from there could manage little else. The big play was an infield single that scored two runners, something you rarely see happen. The Blue Jays were retired in order in six of the game's first eight innings. This is an offense that has gone five straight games w/o collecting 10 hits and in the previous three, they've managed just 13 total. Tonight, they'll face the unbeaten Eduardo Rodriguez, who has a 3-0 team start record. The southpaw Rodriguez is off B2B quality outings, holding the Orioles and Angels to only three runs total in 12 innings of work. Toronto seems fortunate to be averaging 5.6 runs in games where they face a left-handed starter as they are batting just .229 at the same time. 

Despite the three straight losses, Boston has still scored roughly twice as many runs as they have allowed and that puts them in a class all by themselves. Their run differential of +63 is the best in baseball w/ Houston (+55) the only other club north of +35. They had won seven straight here in Toronto prior to taking the loss last night. I believe the offense gets back on track tonight facing Anibal Sanchez, who has an 0-2 TSR at home thus far w/ a 5.40 ERA and 1.628 WHIP. The Red Sox are simply much better on the runs allowed side of the ledger than is Toronto and they deserve to be ML favorites in this spot North of the border. 10* Boston 

10* Over Pacers/Cavaliers (7:05 ET): Let's try this yet again, shall we? While most in the national media remain focused on whether or not this series might end up being the first time LeBron James loses in the first round, to me, the most shocking thing about this series has been all four games staying Under the total. Our Over play in Game 4 suffered a brutal fate as the Cavs' Jeff Green missed a free throw in the closing seconds, costing us a win. Given Cleveland's defensive ineptitude during the regular season, I'm not sure what is more surprising: the fact they've held Indiana to 100 pts or less in all four games or the fact that they're just 2-2 in the series despite doing so. I think we're finally in store for an Over here in Game 5 (I realize I've said that before!), and that's the way I'm playing this one. 

As I've stated numerous times before, Cleveland ranked 28th in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They finished ahead of only Sacramento and Phoenix. No team has ever made an NBA Finals w/ a defensive efficiency rating that low. Heck, only two playoff teams finished lower than 20th (them and soon to be eliminated Minnesota). So it's definitely a surprise to see the Pacers getting held to 100 pts or less in all four games. Indiana averages 105.2 PPG on 47.2% shooting for the year. Meanwhile, Cleveland averages 110.1 PPG for the year on an almost identical shooting percentage. We've seen some good shooting nights so far in this series (not Game 4), but it simply hasn't translated into a lot of points. It's also hurt that the number of free throws attempted in each game hasn't been that large. 

In every game of the series, at least one of the teams has scored 55 pts in the first half. After Cleveland infamously "nose-dived" in the second half of Game 3 (blew 57-40 halftime edge), they very nearly did the same again in Game 4, but this time were able to hold on for the 104-100 victory. A big reason they were able to hold on was that Pacers' leading scorer Victor Oladipo had himself an "off-night" as he finished the game at just 5 for 20 shooting. I expect him to improve upon that percentage and overall scoring tonight. In fact, Oladipo is just 19 for 53 from the field the L3 games after scoring 32 pts in Game 1. So, he's definitely due to improve. As for the Cavaliers, LeBron continues to carry the rest of the team "kicking and screaming," but tonight at home, I expect the "role players" to perform better than they have in the previous two games. 10* Over Pacers/Cavaliers

analysis soon

8* Under Spurs/Warriors (10:35 ET): San Antonio was able to "circle the wagons" in Game 4 and thus delay the inevitable (that being elimination) by winning 103-90 as home underdogs. They did so w/ HC Greg Popovich missing a second straight game due to the death of his wife. An emotional a win as that might have been, I don't think many are looking for the Spurs to last much longer (no Kwhai Leonard remember) and tonight's probably the night that their season ends. However, I don't think for a second that they won't go down w/o a fight. Golden State, who trailed by as many as 17 pts in Game 4, is w/o Steph Curry and thus has its own set of issues right now. I realize it was only "one bad shooting night" in Game 4, but I like this potential close out game to stay Under the total. 

The Warriors missed 21 of 28 three-point attempts Sunday and shot just 37.8% overall from the field. In each of their three victories in the series, they were north of 50% overall. But they are just 14 of 61 from three-point range the L2 games. That's where they obviously miss Curry, but let's also not forget that San Antonio is one of the best defensive teams in the league. Only them and Utah allowed fewer than 100 PPG during the regular season and the Spurs also finished fourth in defensive efficiency. Game 4 snapped a seven-game Over streak for the Spurs' in the postseason when trailing in a series. But remember that this particular iteration doesn't really have the "horses" past ones did and I sincerely doubt we're going to see the same type of production we saw from Manu Ginobili, in particular, here that we did on Sunday. 

Lost in this great four-year run the Dubs have had is that they are a good defensive team. It was another top 10 finish in efficiency this year and they're holding San Antonio to just 98.2 PPG (on 42.3% shooting) in the series. In their last six games (includes last two reg season games), the Spurs have not scored more than 103 pts. They were fortunate to make 15 of 28 three-point attempts in Game 4, but that was after going a somewhat horrific 11 of 61 from behind the arc the previous two games. I realize that this is a low total from Golden State's perspective, but I think they'll hold the Spurs in severe "check" offensively tonight and won't need anywhere close to their "usual" amount of scoring to close out the series. 8* Under Spurs/Warriors

8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): Thanks to a hot start, the Mets continue to lead the NL East, but it's been 10 days since they've won B2B games and signs of regression are in the air. While 14-6 overall, they've only outscored the opposition by 16 runs. That latter number is less than the two surprising division rivals Philadelphia and Atlanta and in fact ranks only fifth in the Senior Circuit. Starting Tuesday, they'll be at one of the teams ahead of them in run differential, that being St. Louis. The Cards just swept Cincinnati for a second time this year and while they're only 6-8 against teams "not named the Reds," I believe tonight's opener is likely to go their way. Look for starter Lance Weaver to bounce back from a rough outing last Thursday, which happens to be the ONLY game the Cards have lost over the past week.

These teams opened the season against one another w/ the Mets taking two of three at Citi Field. Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom pitched NY to victories in the first two games of that series, but the Metropolitans could not overcome Weaver in the series finale, losing 5-1. That happened to be the Mets' lone loss in the first 12 games, but they've since fallen back down to Earth, losing five of their last eight. Over the weekend, they dropped two of three to Atlanta (Sunday rained out) w/ the one win coming in extra innings. Moving forward, I seriously doubt the Mets are going to be able to continue scoring 5.0 rpg on the road as their team batting average away from Citi Field is just .215. Starter Zach Wheeler did not pitch in that first series vs. St. Louis, but is 0-2 all-time against the Cardinals w/ a 4.76 ERA.

Wheeler has started only two times thus far, but he'll start to come up in the rotation more often now that Matt Harvey has been jettisoned. The good news for Wheeler is that he was great in his first start, which saw him go seven innings and allow just one run on two hits. But that was also against sorry Miami. Last time out, he did offer a quality start by going six innings and allowing just three runs. But he had more walks (3) than strikeouts (2), which isn't a good sign. Meanwhile, Weaver has a 17-3 KW ratio and should bounce back from the rough effort vs. the Cubs last week. In his first three starts, Weaver allowed 2 ER or less and just 4 total. His one home start thus far saw him hold Arizona to just one run on three hits in 6 1/3 IP. 8* St. Louis

10* Under Bucks/Celtics (7:30 ET): Have the oddsmakers simply underestimated these teams ability to score? Through the first four games of this best of seven series, it would certainly appear that they have. The Over is a perfect 4-0, though Game 4 just barely snuck Over after Giannis Antetokounmpo's game winning putback gave the Bucks a 104-102 win on Sunday. We're all knotted at two games a piece in this series w/ the other trend (besides the Over) being that the home team has won every game. The scene now shifts back to Boston where the Celtics won the first two games, but they remain undermanned and have been outshot in every game in the series. The Celtics managed only 35 1st half points in each game at Milwaukee and while there might be a natural "jump" in scoring w/ them being back home, I believe it to be minimal at best and it will be defense that carries them, if they are to win here. Take the Under.

You have to remember that the strength of this Celtics team in the regular season was defense. They ranked #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and allowed just 100.4 PPG, which was third fewest in the entire league (fewest in the Eastern Conference). However, that defense has been under fire in this series as the Bucks have shot a stunning 54.2% in the four games, averaging 108.2 PPG. While the loss of Kyrie Irving is huge for the Celtics, that should not be having an adverse effect on the team defensively. Yet going back to the end of the regular season, Boston has gone Over in eight straight games. Totals have generally been low during this time, but note Celtics' games are still only averaging 205 PPG for the season. 

I can't see Milwaukee continuing to shoot the ball as well as they have moving forward. In that regard, look for Celtics' HC Brad Stevens to make adjustments. I have little faith in a Bucks team that was actually outscored during the regular season, beyond Antetokounmpo. They were one of the top Over teams in the league during the regular season, but I've been really surprised as to how well they're shooting in this series. The Bucks' bench also scored 31 pts in Game 4, a number that should decrease significantly tonight. As for Boston offensively, that's where they do miss Irving and the "next man up" mentality isn't always going to work. Jaylen Brown did have 34 points Sunday (career-high), but note that Game 1 "hero" Terry Rozier had only 10. Looking at this roster, I just don't see a "reliable" scoring option on a night to night basis. The Celtics have shot below 42% in three of the four games in this series. 10* Under Bucks/Celtics

10* Oklahoma City (10:35 ET): The Thunder fell behind in this best of seven series, two games to one, w/ a 115-102 loss on Friday. After taking Game 1, OKC has now dropped back to back games and would be in REAL trouble were they to lose again here. Oddly, after getting off to poor starts in both home games, the Thunder raced out to a 30-22 advantage at the end of the 1st quarter in Game 3. But they found themselves down by halftime and a surprising triple double from Jazz PG Ricky Rubio led to the final result. The Thunder shot the ball well enough, but were outrebounded badly. Given how Utah tends to defend here in Salt Lake, wasting a good shooting night can end up as a big missed opportunity when viewed in retrospect. But I'll take the points here in Game 4 as I expect the Thunder to play better. 

I'd go ahead and guarantee that we won't be seeing another triple double from Rubio, but Russell Westbrook has already beaten me to the punch in that regard. Westbrook has declared that he will see to it. It would also help if the All-Star point guard shot better than 5 for 17 like he did in Game 3. I suspect he will and thus finish w/ more than 14 points. Though he continues to post good all-around numbers, Westbrook has really struggled in both Thunder losses in this series, going for just 33 total pts on 12 of 36 shooting. Paul George has played well, but Carmelo Anthony has been persona non grata, averaging just 15.3 PPG in the series. The Thunder are 7-4 SU off a double digit loss this season and rarely are a dog in that role (as they are here). 

Utah was my 10* Game of the Week in Game 2 (plus the points) and rewarded me there w/ a straight up victory. I wasn't surprised to see them win Game 3 either, but now I question the number of points they're being asked to lay. This has been a great team down the stretch obviously as they've won 30 of their last 37 games overall. But in eight meetings this year w/ the Thunder, they've been favored by more than 1.5 pts just twice and Friday was the first time. The Jazz also shot well in Game 3, better overall than the Thunder in fact, and I don't see them hitting 52.5% overall from the field again. Nor do I see B2B blowouts, so again, taking the points is the way to go. 10* Oklahoma City

10* Oakland (8:05 ET): Go ahead and tip your cap to the A's for what they did over the weekend, beating Boston twice. Lefty Sean Manaea pitched the first no-hitter in almost a quarter century vs. the Red Sox on Saturday, striking out 10, in a 3-0 win on Saturday. Then came Sunday when Kris Davis hit a game-winning, three-run homer in the bottom of the eighth to give the team a 4-1 victory. Consider that going into the weekend, Boston had lost only two times all season and one of those ocurred on Opening Day! Oakland's own record is now "squared away" at 11-11 as they head to Arlington to face Texas. While concern over a "letdown" is legitimate in this spot, I'm not overly worried as these Rangers are not a good team. They own the AL's fourth-worst record and run differential. 

Overall, the A's have won six of their last seven ballgames. In five of those wins, they've allowed two runs or fewer. They'll hand the baseball to Trevor Cahill tonight, hoping he cotinues the trend. Cahill is responsible for one of those five gems as his 1st start of '18 really could not have gone any better as he pitched seven scoreless innings of five-hit ball w/ 8 K's. Granted, it came against the White Sox, but Texas isn't much better. The Rangers rank in the bottom third of the league in runs scored per game and even w/ yday's 7-4 win over Seattle (allowed them to avoid a sweep), they're just 3-10 at home this season. Cahill is 10-4 w/ a 2.79 ERA in 17 career starts vs. Texas, who has posted B2B wins only one time this season. 

It also helps Cahill's cause that the Oakland offense has been rounding into form. Over the last seven games, the team is averaging 6.0 rpg w/ a collective batting average of .279. Meanwhile, pitching has been the weak spot for this Texas club, who is 25th in runs per game allowed (5.2). They got a surprisingly strong effort from Martin Perez yday vs. the Mariners, but I wouldn't count on the same thing today from Matt Moore, who is struggling w/ a 5.59 ERA and 1.707 WHIP after four starts. That's even after a quality showing last week vs. Tampa Bay. But in his first three starts, Moore had allowed 12 runs in 12 1/3 IP and twice had more walks than strikeouts (that's never a good sign). He also is 1-2 all-time vs. Oakland w/ a 7.07 ERA. Visiting teams are averaging 6.4 rpg so far at Globe Life Stadium thanks to a stunning .296 batting average. 10* Oakland 

10* Over Capitals/Blue Jackets (7:35 ET): Here's what I wrote in my analysis prior to Game 5, which wound up being a 4-3 overtime win for the Caps: "It's about time the home team won a game in this series, no?" That's precisely what they did, though for a fourth time in the series, things did go to OT. Winners of the last three games in this series (two in OT), Washington can now close Columbus out, but must do so on the road. Given how this series has gone (road team won each of the first four games), maybe that's not such a big deal, but at the same time I'm not sure I see the Blue Jackets losing a third straight home game. Seeing as how every game in the series has seen at least five total goals scored, Over seems like the most logical call here and that's the way I'll go. 

Overtime has been the rule, not the exception, in this series. But something novel did take place in Game 5 and that was Columbus actually finishing with the edge in shots on goal. It was 42-29, the most shots on goal the Blue Jackets have had in any individual game in the series. Not that it ended up mattering though. They needed a late goal in the third period to force OT. Their only lead of the game came on a short-handed goal that opened the scoring in the 1st period. That said, they've scored at least three goals in regulation in all but one game in the series. They get Alexander Wennberg back for Game 5 (missed previous three games). Wennberg is the team's second line center and can also help on the power play, an area desperately need of some assistance for Columbus. They've gone 0 for the last 12 after scoring four times w/ the man advantage in the first two games. 

Washington has scored a PP goal in every game in this series. Not a surprise, they ranked 7th in that department in the regular season. There have been a lot of shots in this series w/ the Caps averaging 39.0 per game. That's making life difficult for Columbus goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, who has allowed 17 goals total in the five games. Braden Holtby, who didn't start the first two games for Washington between the pipes, has come in and helped turn the tide w/ a .936 save percentage in the series. The team has won all three of his starts, but remember he also posted an .895 save percentage on the road during the regular season. While the Caps are 6-2 Over their last eight games, the Blue Jackets are 9-2 Over their last 11. 10* Over Capitals/Blue Jackets

10* Over Cavs/Pacers (8:35 ET): Cleveland is in some real trouble here. Yes, they dominated virtually all of Games 2 & 3 except for "the end." That last little tidbit ended up costing them Game 3 Friday night as they blew all of a 17-pt halftime lead and ended up losing 92-90. What's really scary if you're a Cavs fan is that your team, which finished 28th in the regular season in defensive efficiency (ahead of only Sacramento & Phoenix), has given up less than 100 pts in all three games and yet is down 2-1 in the series as well as 0-3 against the spread. They're now just 4-13 ATS head to head vs. Indiana the L3 seasons despite being 12-5 straight up. I don't really want to bet against the Cavs off a loss, but what I will do here is go w/ the Over as all three games in the series staying Under may be the biggest surprise of all!

Because the Under is a perfect 3-0 in this series, the O/U line has come down somewhat significantly since Game 1. Totals for the first two games were 212.5 and 213. Both Unders cashed by double digits, so the oddsmakers dipped the number for Game 3 and even that one was an easy winner for Under bettors. So now it's been another noticeable dip for Game 4. I know I wrote this prior to Friday, but I think we've reached a "tipping point" of sorts when it comes to the current O/U line. I already mentioned how bad Cleveland was defensively in the regular season. They continue to give up an average of 109.4 PPG for the year. They also average 110.1 PPG for the year, themselves. So this is a really low number from their perspective. 

Indiana is no slouch offensively either, at least in the regular season they weren't, as despite failing to break 100 pts in any of the three games here they average 105.2 PPG. At home, that average jumps to 106.6. Three-point shooting has been pretty woeful in this series - from both sides - and the number of free throw attempts hasn't been what it should be (this despite a LOT of fouls being called in Game 3). I've got to imagine those numbers go up here. Cleveland was held to just 33 second half pts on Friday, an unconscionably low number, after scoring 57 by halftime. They had only 12 pts in the third quarter. With George Hill's back giving him trouble, Cavs HC Ty Lue is reportedly set to start Jose Calderon at point guard. I actually think that's an upgrade based on necessity. Following three or more consecutive Unders this season, the Cavs are 8-4 Over. 10* Over Cavs/Pacers

8* Nashville (7:00 ET): The top-seeded Predators had a chance to close out the 8th seeded Avs at home on Friday, but failed to do so, instead losing by a score of 2-1. They gave up both goals in the final five minutes and even more head-scratching was the fact they lost despite a 45-27 edge in shots, plus they were going against a backup goaltender. But the "good ol' Hamburgler," Andrew Hammond, came up huge for Colorado w/ a playoff career-high 44 saves. The good news for the Preds is they have another chance to close the Avs out Sunday. However, they'll need to do it Denver where the Avs are now 29-12-2 (split Games 3 and 4 here). I think the Preds will be up to the challenge though as they have experienced only one losing streak in the last two months. 

The Avs can't overcome this goaltending situation again, can they? Certainly not if they give up another 45 shots they can't. Just to bring everyone up to speed, #1 netminder Semyon Varlamov was lost to a season-ending knee injury late in the regular season. Backup Jonathan Bernier went down earlier in this series w/ an upper-body injury. Enter Hammond, who turned in the yeoman's effort in Game 5. But I wouldn't bet on him doing it again. Also, Colorado became the first team to win a playoff game in regulation when entering the final five minutes trailing since 2013. They also don't have top defensemen Erik Johnson in this series either. Really, I'm pretty surprised that they've gotten thus far. Nashville didn't fail in a single close out game in LY's run to the Stanley Cup Final. 

The Preds have also beaten the Avs in 13 of the previous 15 encounters. They did win here at the Pepsi Center in Game 4, 3-2, and are now 26-10-7 on the road for the season (one of the best marks in the league, fewest # of regulation losses). This team was #2 in the league in goals allowed during the regular season. Goalie Pekka Rinne has not had his finest hour in this series, but I expect him to bounce back after faltering late in Game 4. His save percentage on the road is a pretty ridiculous .932. I'll call for Nashville to advance and play Winnipeg. 8* Nashville 

8* Under Raptors/Wizards (6:05 ET): The first three games of this series have all gone Over the total, most of them comfortably so. I was actually on the Over in Game 1. After a ridiculously high-scoring Game 2 (Raptors won 130-119 to take a 2-0 series lead), oddsmakers adjusted the O/U line for Game 3 by several points, but even that wasn't high enough as the teams combined for another 225 pts. But this time it was the Wizards prevailing, 122-103, as a slight favorite at home. That was obviously a must-win for Washington as no team in NBA history has ever overcome an 0-3 series deficit. But note for Game 4, the line has shifted to where Toronto is now a slight favorite. I'm leaving that alone, but I do think that we're in store for an Under here tonight. I just don't see the two teams keeping up the ridiculous shooting we've seen in the first three games. 

Washington shot 55.3% from the floor in Game 3 and has shot above 50% for the series. They've scored the exact number of points that Toronto has. A large key for them so far has been three-point shooting where they've gone 28 of 66 for the series, or 42.4%. While a good shooting team in the regular season, these playoff numbers are higher than normal for the Wiz. They had 69 pts by halftime in Game 3 and the starting backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal combined for 56 pts (w/ 28 each). Marcin Gortat also came up w/ his best performance of the series w/ 16 pts at a time when many thought he might get dropped from the starting lineup. Do not expect Washington to be as prolific offensively tonight as Game 3 was certainly one of those "once in a series" type efforts. 

Toronto is also shooting better than 50% for the series, though they were at only 45.1% in Game 3. Now this team is not nearly as effective on the road compared to North of the Border. They are #1 in the league in home scoring differential. Like Washington, the Raptors have been lights out from three-point range in this series as they have gone 41 of 93, which is 44%. Again, that's a percentage one would think almost HAS to come down. Free throw shooting has also been ridiculous for both times. My dad often calls me to lament FT shooting in this league, but I've received no correspondence from him on this series and for good reason. The two teams are combining to hit well over 80% from the charity stripe, missing only 19 of 138 attempts. Again, that's a percentage I don't view as being sustainable. The Raptors had an uncharacteristic 19 turnovers, which led to 28 Wizards' points in Game 3. I don't see that happening again either. 8* Under Raptors/Wizards

10* Chi Cubs (3:10 ET): After walloping the Rockies here at Coors Field on Friday (16-5!), the Cubs gave one back on Saturday, losing by a score of 5-2. If you're a regular client of mine, you know that I often point to run differential as an instructional tool for how a team is truly performing. Looking at that particular column for these two teams is particularly interesting. Colorado may be 12-10 on the year, but they have been outscored by 22 runs, "thanks" in large part to giving up nearly 5.0 runs per game. Sure, it's easy to blame "the Coors Field effect" for that, but note the Rockies have played 14 of their 22 games so far on the road. Meanwhile, the Cubs (who are only 9-9) have a run differential of +22 on the season, best in their division and 4th best overall in the Senior Circuit. To me, it's pretty clear that the Cubs are the better team here & I'll take 'em! 

Free agent acquisition Yu Darvish started yday for the Cubs and for the third time in four starts, he failed to make it out of the fifth inning. We'll certainly be hoping for a better outing from today's starter Carlos Martinez, whose early season returns have likewise not been that encouraging. Two of his three starts have been bad, but note in the third (at Milwaukee), he delivered six scoreless innings of three-hit ball. I'll excuse what happened his last time out as the conditions were miserable in Atlanta w/ 38 degree temperatures and steady rain. Martinez, a native Colombian, didn't really stand a chance. However, it should be noted that the Cubs (who I had in the game) came back and won 14-10. The last time Martinez pitched here at Coors Field, he was wearing a White Sox uniform for the final time and delivered 10 K's in 5 1/3 IP. Ironically, he got a no-decision in that start when his team blew the game. 

The Cubs' offense has largely been "feast or famine" these last eight games. In the four wins, they've scored eight runs or more, including 13+ three times. In the four losses, they've been held to three or fewer. One would think that Coors Field would make things conducive to a strong offensive effort and I suspect we'll get something a lot better than yesterday (even if it's not as impressive as Friday). They'll face German Marquez, who has a 3-1 TSR despite a 4.34 ERA and 1.393 WHIP. He hasn't lasted long in either home start (just 7 2/3 innings total) and gave up seven runs (w/ six walks!) in one of them. The Rockies' offense has been surprisingly scuffling in the early going of the season as they rank last in the NL in team batting average (.218) and they are next to last in OBP (.293). Even in victory yday, they managed only five hits and four of those came in the one inning where they scored all of their runs. 10* Chi Cubs

8* Run Line Cincinnati (2:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Reds +1.5. It certainly hasn't been a good season in Cincy thus far, especially when playing the division rival Cardinals. Not only are the Reds a MLB-worst 3-17 overall, but they're now 0-6 head to head with St. Louis and facing the prospect of getting swept for a second time by the Redbirds, Sunday at Busch Stadium. Revenge for a prior sweep is one of my favorite angles in MLB handicapping, so I thought taking the Reds +1.5 on Friday was a good idea. But they lost that game, their first since firing manager Bryan Price, 4-2. Of course, yday saw them lose by only one run, 4-3. I'll go "back to the well" on Sunday and call for them to do no worse than a one-run loss here. 

The Reds were "oh, so close" to picking up their third win of the season on Saturday as they tied the game w/ a three-run seventh, only to cede the eventual game-winning HR (by Yadier Molina) in the bottom half of the frame. But Cincy had a chance to at least tie things back up in the top of the ninth when they had the bases loaded, but Scooter Gennett hit into a game-ending DP. It's now 10 straight losses to St. Louis (dating back to last season) for the Reds, their longest losing streak in this division rivalry since dropping 11 straight back in 1949. At some point, they have to break through, right? What you may have already noticed yourself is that the ML is significantly lower here than it was for either of the first two games in the series. Note that St. Louis is just 1-3 this season as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range at home. They're also below .500 in that same range over the L3 seasons. 

I suspect that the dropping of the price has to do w/ facing Miles Mikolas, who has a 4.26 ERA so far (three starts) and opponents are batting .250 against him. Mikolas will be working on a full seven days' rest here as he was jumped in the rotation by Carlos Martinez (started yday) after the Cards had two rainouts in three days. A veteran of the Japanese circuit, Mikolas did not fare too well in his first start here at Busch, giving up four runs. I do not expect him to pitch as well as Martinez did yday. The good news here for Cincinnati is that today's starter Luis Castillo was on the mound the last time the team won (that would be Monday in Milwaukee). Castillo had eight strikeouts in 6 2/3 IP vs. the Brew Crew and has been a bit unlucky in giving up 11 runs overall this season as he's allowed only 16 hits in 17 2/3 IP. The Reds' bullpen, prior to losing yday, had been working on a scoreless streak of 18+ innings. The worm HAS to turn for Cincy here, at least for one day. 8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)

10* Seattle (8:05 ET): I tried coming into 2018 w/ a slightly more optimistic view of the Rangers than most, but this simply looks like a bad baseball team that won't be winning many games. They dropped Friday's series opener w/ the division rival Mariners by a score of 6-2 and thus have fallen to 7-14 on the season, including just 2-9 here in Arlington. They've already been outscored by 36 runs, which isn't the worst margin in all of baseball, but it's not far off (Miami is the worst at -55). Though Bartolo Colon has been one of the few pleasant surprises for the club and will get the starting nod tonight, I'm not sure how confident we should be in him continuing the performances we've seen in his first two starts. Go with the Mariners in this one. 

Seattle will counter Colon w/ James Paxton, who is already making his fifth start of the season (where does the time go?). After a shaky first outing, Paxton has rebounded to allow 2 ER or fewer in each of his L3 starts w/ 24 strikeouts in 23 IP. Last time out, he outdueled Houston's Dallas Keuchel in a 2-1 win as he allowed only one run (on a solo HR) on just three hits in six innings of work. Tonight, he'll face a Texas lineup that ranks near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. The Rangers are averaging only 3.3 rpg so far and have been held below that average in seven of the last nine games! They are also just 1-4 vs. left-handed starters this season.

In his last start, Colon became the oldest pitcher to take a no-hit bid into the eighth inning or later since Gaylord Perry in 1983. He was actually perfect through seven innings. But I would expect steep regression in this spot as he faces a Seattle lineup that pounded out 14 hits last night. Yes, it was a four-run ninth that was the difference for the M's last night, but if not for some strong defense by Texas, the game wouldn't have been as close. Something else worth tracking is that the road team has won seven straight head to head meetings in this AL West rivalry. 10* Seattle

8* Over Rockets/T'wolves (7:35 ET): Coming into this series, the expectation was for a lot of points, but that really hasn't come to fruition yet. The first two games have both stayed Under, the last one by a healthy margin as Houston routed Minnesota 102-82 to take a 2-0 series lead. Particularly frightening if you're a T'wolves fan is that Game 2 saw Rockets' star James Harden shoot only 2 for 18 from the floor (including 1 of 10 from three-point range) and still your team lost by 20. Granted, the series now shifts to the Twin Cities, but I'm not confident that will change much. What I am confident in though is that we're in store for a lot more scoring in Game 3. Take the Over. 

Houston was neck and neck w/ Golden State all year long for the most efficient offense in the game. They averaged 112.4 PPG as well, just a bucket less than the Dubs for the highest scoring average in the league. So its certainly rare to see them having been below that average for six consecutive games (all Unders) as well as seven of the last eight. In fact, the Under is now 9-1 Under in the Rockets' previous 10 games. Harden's poor shooting night certainly didn't help matters in Game 2, but he'll certainly be better tonight. As a team, the Rockets only shot 36.5% in Game 2 and they are a woeful 26 of 89 from three-point range in the series. There's no reason NOT to expect those numbers to go up considering Minnesota has never been stout defensively and came into the playoffs ranked 22nd in efficiency.

Now the T'wolves were also a top four team in offensive efficiency in the regular season. They averaged 109.5 PPG in the regular season. So their own offensive efforts in the first two games of this series are even more disappointing that Houston's. They're only 13 of 41 from three-point range, not that they're known as the most prolific three-point shooting team anyway. But they were just 38.7% overall from the floor in Game 2 after shooting 43.7% in Game 1. I think a return home (where they averaged 111.1 PPG in the regular season) is bound to do them some good. Following a double digit loss this season, Minnesota is 8-4 Over. Their three top players - Karl-Anthony Towns, Jimmy Butler and Andrew Wiggins - all scored 13 pts or fewer in Game 2 w/ Towns making only two of nine field goal attempts. Expect a lot more production from that trio tonight. 8* Over Rockets/T'wolves

10* Portland (5:05 ET): Needless to say, the third-seeded Trail Blazers did NOT expect to find themselves in the current situation going into Game 4. That would be down 0-3 in the series and facing elimination. They've been thoroughly outclassed by the Pelicans w/ the margin of defeat growing greater every game. But, as a result of that, we've seen a massive swing in the pointspread from Game 1. After being six-point favorites for Games 1 & 2, the Blazers are now six-point DOGS here in Game 4. I came into this series thinking New Orleans was the undervalued team (cashed them as a 10* in Gm 1) and was proven right, but now things have shifted too far in the other direction. It's predictable, given what we have seen in the first three games, but I can't see Portland going down w/o a fight and this is too many points to lay for the Pelicans. Take the points. 

New Orleans thoroughly dominanted Game 3 here at home, taking a 64-45 advantage by halftime and never looking back. They are the highest seed (6th) to take a 3-0 series led in the NBA playoffs since '01, so yes, this is a surprise. Personally, I didn't buy Portland as the third best team in the West coming out of the regular season, but a case could also be made that the Pelicans weren't the sixth best team either. They do have a virtually identical net efficiency rating compared to Portland (which is why I thought they were the undervalued team in Gms 1 & 2), but now "the shoe is on the other foot." Also, the Pelicans' regular season point differential ranked 15th out of the 16 playoff teams and was just ninth in the West. 

There's all sorts of finger-pointing going on in the Pacific Northwest right now and for good reason. Head coach Terry Stotts may not survive if his team is swept here as his career playoff record is very bad (12-27 SU). Also, leading scorer Damian Lillard has REALLY struggled with the different defensive looks New Orleans has thrown at him in this series. He's averaging only 18.3 PPG in the series (down from almost 27.0 in the reg season) on 32.7% shooting, including 8 of 25 from three-point range. I have to believe he's going to play better here in Game 4. At the same time, I just can't see the Pelicans' Nikola Mirotic playing as well as he did (30 points) in Game 3. No team seeded sixth or lower has ever swept a series since the NBA did away w/ the best of five first round scenario some time ago. The Blazers are 6-2 ATS this season following a losing streak of three or more games. 10* Portland

8* Cleveland (4:05 ET): Like many of the projected favorites to win their respective divisions, the Indians are scuffling right now. They're only 9-8, but I wouldn't worry yet as the American League Central looks very weak on paper in 2018 w/ only Minnesota likely to offer the Tribe anything closely resembling "competition." Furthermore, the Indians' pitching remains top-notch. They are currently top three in ERA, quality starts, WHIP and opposing batting average. Only Houston and Boston are allowing fewer runs per game. Therefore, this "slow start" is clearly "owed" to an offense, which ranks near the bottom of the league in most key categories. But after managing only one run last night here at Camden Yards, I'll call for them to get back on track this afternoon. 

Baltimore pitching has not been anywhere near as prolific as that of Cleveland as the O's have given up the third MOST runs per game in the league. Of course, starting pitching has never been a strength w/ this club, at least under Buck Showalter, who has managed to succeed here through a lot of "smoke and mirrors" and because of an excellent bullpen. But the bullpen hasn't been particularly great so far for the O's, due in large part to the fact they have been w/o closer Zach Britton the whole way. I do not expect the starting effort from Chris Tillman to be very good today either considering he's opened 2018 by going 0-3 w/ an 11.92 ERA and 2.824 WHIP. Those are some of the worst numbers in the sport, though it should be pointed out he's had to face three of the top teams in the AL (NYY, BOS, HOU), all on the road. While they did win last night, Baltimore had lost six in a row before that. 

Cleveland has had an interesting last seven days as there were numerous postponements last weekend for their scheduled series at home vs. Toronto. Then, it was off to Puerto Rico where they split a pair of games vs. Minnesota. They scored their lone run in the first inning last night, but it should be noted they were facing a good starter in Dylan Bundy. Tonight, they should get back on track against the struggling Tillman. They've gone 1 for 22 w/ RISP the L2 games, which is certainly due to turn around. Mike Clevinger gets the starting nod and had 14 K's in 16 2/3 IP so far. Consider the Orioles are averaging just 2.1 rpg while batting a collective .183 at Camden Yards this season. As a road favorite of -175 or higher, the Tribe has gone 16-7 the past three seasons. 8* Cleveland

10* Washington (3:05 ET): It's about time the home team won a game in this series, no? The Caps have the momentum now coming off B2B wins in Columbus, the last of which was a 4-1 beatdown that caused Blue Jackets' HC John Tortorella to curtly say "We laid an egg." That Game 4 victory was the first in the series NOT to go to overtime. Washington has outshot C-bus in all four games and also scored at least one time on the power play (in all 4 games) as well. So the arguement can be made that they've been the better team here. They were, of course, the better team in the regular season as well by finishing first in the Metropolitan Division. Given the Capitals' "playoff rep," I've been highly impressed w/ how they've bounced back in this series and I like them to take Game 5 back here in the Nation's Capital. 

Note that Washington has scored first in all four games of the series. They actually blew a two-goal lead in Game 1 while Columbus lost three players to injury. Game 2 saw the Caps post a massive 58-30 edge in shots on goal and go 3 for 7 on the PP, yet they again blew a 2-0 lead. Game 3 is when the "tide turned," however, as it took a lucky bounce of the puck in double overtime to finally get the Caps a win. In retrospect, that may end up as the play that saved their season. Game 4 was a far more "complete effort," as they limited the Blue Jackets to just 24 shots on goal and took advantage of numerous mistakes. One would now logically think they are poised to take control of this series. The Caps were top 10 in both goals scored and allowed at home in the regular season, so them dropping both games here so far in the series was highly irregular. Of course, so too is the road team winning the first four games of a series. 

Columbus was actually #2 in the league in goals allowed at home during the regular season, so the results of Games 3 and 4 have to be especially disappointing. All of a sudden, goalie Sergei Bobrovsky looked quite "mortal" and remember he did allow seven goals in the two games here earlier in the series. I'm not surprised that Washington has enjoyed the edge on special teams in this series either; C-bus ranked 25th on the power play and 26th in penalty killing during the regular season. Remember that this is a young team, so w/ all the OT games, they're likely taxed. Also, no team has been short-handed more often this postseason. 10* Washington 

8* Boston (9:35 ET): While it appears that the oddsmakers are almost "inviting" Celtics' money here, this is the other game on the Friday NBA card (see Toronto-Washington) where blindly taking the "zig zag theory" seems like a fool's errand. While the "zig zag theory" (simply taking the ATS loser of the previous game) has enjoyed a relative degree of success in the past in NBA playoff betting, its effectiveness seems to have waned in more recent times. Case in point, after squeaking out a win and cover (needed overtime) in Game 1, Boston was far more dominant in Game 2, winning 120-106 even though they actually closed as one-point dogs at some shops. Yes, the Bucks have outshot the Celtics in both games so far, but should we be counting on that happening again and if not, it's hard to make an arguement for them, especially w/ what looks like a massive coaching advantage for the Celtics. Take the points. 

Bucks' HC Joe Prunty would be better served playing his starters longer, and together more, moving forward. When they're on the court, Milwaukee has arguably looked like the better team in this series. But w/ a deeper roster (despite a myriad of injuries!) and far superior coaching, the Celtics have counteracted that. They may not have Kyrie Irving for the playoffs, but Jaylen Brown has stepped up for Brad Stevens' team, scoring 50 pts in the first two games. This is just far too many points for the top defensive team in the league (in terms of efficiency) to be getting in this spot. The Celtics are a ridiculous 19-5 ATS as underdogs this season. Remember that Milwaukee is the ONLY team in the playoffs that was outscored in the regular season.

Boston finished #1 at the betting window during the regular season as well, going 48-30-4 ATS overall. I already mentioned how profitable they've been as underdogs, well, they're also 27-13-1 ATS on the road. If you want to count them as underdogs from Game 2 (and like I said, they did close +1 at some shops), they are 12-1 ATS this year coming off a SU win as as dog. Consider that the Bucks shot almost 60% from the floor in Game 2 and still lost by double digits. That's pretty incredible. The likelihood of Milwaukee shooting that well again tonight, even at home, is minimal at best. They even trailed by as many as 20, again despite shooting nearly SIXTY PERCENT from the floor! If the Bucks do win here, I can't see them doing so by the margin the oddsmakers are asking for. 8* Boston

10* Run Line Cincinnati (8:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Reds +1.5. There are three factors that have led me to take the beleaguered Reds in this spot. One is that they just fired their manager, Bryan Price, after four very non-descript seasons. The team's .419 win percentage under Price was the worst in the league during that timeframe and a 3-15 start to this season was looking rather ominous. However, as we see in all sport, a coaching/managerial change often provides a short-term boost to a team. I also like when the Reds chose to make the move, on an off-day. St. Louis, meanwhile, had to finish a series yday w/ the Cubs (lost 8-5) and that's a second reason why the Reds are appealing in this spot. The third and final reason is that Cincy has revenge for a four-game sweep (suffered at home) just last week. They'll do no worse than a one-run loss here tonight. 

The numbers are pretty ugly for the Reds so far this season. They've been outscored by a MLB-worst 50 run margin so far and are the first team to start a campaign 3-15 since the 2015 Brewers. The good news for the Reds is that Brewers team did NOT finish in last place in the NL Central that season. That's because the Reds did! But as bad as things have been here, they can only get better now that Price is gone. The team is off B2B shutout losses to Milwaukee, for instance. They've been held to three runs or fewer five times in the last six games. But they did score 10 times in a rare win Monday. Tonight's starter Brandon Finnegan gets a second crack at St. Louis tonight and I find it difficult to believe he won't improve upon last Saturday's performance where he allowed five runs on six hits, lasting only 4 1/3 innings.

St. Louis had a five-game win streak snapped yday and really they were lucky to score five runs as they had only five hits and struck out 11 times. Three Cubs' errors kept the door open in a game the Cards initially fell behind 6-0 after just two frames. Getting back to the revenge angle here, it's difficult to consistently beat the same opponent, day after day, especially if it's a division rival. Starting here for the Redbirds will be Michael Wacha. He was hardly dominant in last week's series vs. the Reds as he lasted only five innings and gave up four runs. In fact, Wacha has yet to make it past the fifth inning in any of his three starts this season. A failure to do so yet again puts a real "onus" on already taxed Cardinals' pen. At the very worst, I can see Cincy putting some runs on the board late to make this a one-run game (similar to what they did in LW's series finale), but I also give them an excellent shot at winning this game as well! 10* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)

8* Toronto (8:05 ET): This is one of two games on Friday's NBA card where oddsmakers are clearly anticipating "zig zag" bettors stepping in and taking the home team, down 0-2 in its respective series. But while the "zig zag theory" (simply taking the ATS loser of the previous game) has enjoyed a relative degree of success in the past in NBA playoff betting, its effectiveness seems to have waned in more recent times. For instance, those hoping for a Washington bounce back in Game 2 (they lost Gm 1, 114-106 as 7.5-pt dogs) were rudely greeted w/ an early Raptors' firestorm and the result ended up being an even more lopsided Game 2 (130-119). Compared to the lines from the first two games of the series, it sure looks like the oddsmakers have overcompensated here. Take the points.

Now I don't expect Toronto to shoot as well here as they did at home in Game 2. They scored 44 pts in the 1st quarter, had 76 by halftime and never looked back in finishing w/ 130. After making a franchise record 16 three-pointers in Game 1, the Raptors made 13 more in Game 2, though they did slow down in the 2nd half, making only two. The key was the first quarter when every starter made at least one attempt from long distance and the team was 7 of 13 overall. DeMar DeRozan matched a career playoff-high w/ 37 points. This is actually the first time in franchise history that the Raptors have led a series 2-0 and I don't think for a second they are about to let up. Note their scoring average hardly dips on the road (they still average 111.1 PPG) and they're a perfect 4-0 ATS this season after scoring 130+ pts the previous game. 

Washington was not a good ATS team at home during the regular season, going just 15-24-2. They were 10-22-1 ATS when favored here in D.C., so I really don't understand this line at all. Toronto is significantly better and should still be favored on the road in this series. Yes, the Wiz are essentially "playing for their season" tonight, but this is a team that's won only one game in April and it came against an injury-riddled Boston team. Washington has won only three of its last 14 games as well. So this really isn't a very good team and I think this Raptors' team - which had the best year in franchise history - is being severely underrated right now. Toronto has shot better than 50% in both games, outrebounded Washington badly in Game 2 and led by as many as 23. 8* Toronto

8* Puck Line Minnesota (7:40 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Wild +1.5. This is a pretty cheap price on a team as good as Minnesota, getting an additional 1.5 goals to work with. Yes, the overall outlook is looking rather bleak after a Game 4 loss (2-0) that puts them down 3-1 in the series and having to make a return trip to Winnipeg where the host Jets are an outstanding 34-7-2 SU for the year. But, as much as I leaned on the simple concept of home ice advantage for previous plays in this series, the anticipation of the Jets closing things out has led to a ridiculously inflated price for Game 5 and the PL now becomes a viable option. Maybe this is Minnesota's final game, but I see them doing no worse than a one-goal loss in this spot. 

The last time a team wearing Winnipeg Jets' sweaters had a 3-1 series lead was 1992 (!) against the Vancouver Canucks. They failed to close out that series and have never advanced since. (To be fair, the franchise went away for some time, before resurfacing as the Atlanta Thrashers). So tonight is going to be a REALLY big deal in Manitoba. But, the pressure is on and the Jets will have to win w/o three of their top four blueliners. Already w/o Toby Enstrom and Dmitri Kulikov (both injured), the team will now have to deal with the suspension Josh Morrisey (for a cross-check in Game 3). Furthemore, a fourth defensemen (Tyler Myers) is also listed as questionable for this game. That's a lot of key personnel missing for a game aainst what will be a very desperate Wild team. 

Minnesota has typically bounced back this year after a poor offensive effort as their record is 12-5 SU after being held to one goal or fewer in their previous game. Case in point, they scored six times in Game 3 (following a 4-1 loss in Game 2), chasing the previously red-hot Connor Hellebuyck. Despite being badly outshot in those first two games, the Wild remained competitive, which is a mark in their favor. Devan Dubnyk has actually outplayed Hellebuyck in this series (.930 save percentage to .899) and I just can't see Minnesota going down w/o a fight in this one. 8* Puck Line Minnesota (+1.5)

10* Over Cavaliers/Pacers (7:05 ET): For some, maybe it's been the lopsided nature of the first two contests that's been the most surprising thing from the series. But for me, it's been the fact that Cleveland - not a good defensive team - has allowed fewer than 100 pts in both games. Now, that comes w/ a giant caveat as Game 1 also saw them turn in their worst offensive performance of the season in a 98-80 outright loss. Led by the greatest player on the planet (LeBron James, duh), they bounced back in Game 2, winning 100-97. Though the final score was close, note Cleveland jumped out to a huge lead and never trailed in the contest. But I come back to the fact the Cavs finished the regular season 28th in defensive efficiency (ahead of only Sacramento & Phoenix) and yet we've had two low-scoring games thus far. I think that changes in Game 3. Take the Over.

I was on Indiana in both Games 1 and 2, so from that perspective, I've had a good read on the series thus far. You could tell pretty quickly though that Game 2 was not going to be their night. LeBron started the game on a 16-2 run by himself and wound up w/ a game-high 46. Cleveland led by as many as 18. It was a far cry from Game 1 when it was the Pacers racing out to a huge early lead and never looking back. I anticipate Game 3 will be more competitive. Now, despite the low score, both teams shot better than 50% in Game 2. But, a big key to the final result was Indiana shooting only 6 of 22 from three-point range. And several of those makes came late in the contest. Helping offset any potential decline in overall shooting from Gm 2 is that I expect a higher # of FT attempts here. The teams combined for just 34 in Gm 2 and Cleveland missed seven of their 22. 

Again, Cleveland is not a good defensive team. Among playoff teams, only New Orleans allowed more points per game in the regular season. Of course, they can score w/ the best of them as well, ranking top five in offensive efficiency during the regular season and averaging 110.4 PPG. Indiana was 12th in offensive efficiency during the regular season and their scoring average jumps to 106.9 PPG here at home. What really hurt them in Gm 2 was early foul trouble for leading scorer Victor Oladipo. This O/U line has come down several points from the first two games and is especially low from Cleveland's perspective compared to most regular season games. Each team's average in terms of points scored and allowed would simply now yield an Over. 10* Over Cavaliers/Pacers

6* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): My belief was that this was the series where the Yankees would start to establish themselves in the AL East race and I was rewarded for taking them yday as they prevailed 4-3 over the Blue Jays. Now, I'll call for them to do what they did up in Toronto to start the year and that's take the first two games of a four-game set. The Bronx Bombers came into the year as the consensus favorite to win the division, but they have a lot of work to do now thanks to the historically great start by rival Boston (who is now 16-2!). The Yanks are just 9-8 and still 2.5 gms back of the Jays even after yday's result. But I see the home team continuing to ascend this weekend as they begin to live up to their vast potential. 

New York came into Thursday's series opener w/ a bit of an edge already as they were off Wednesday while Toronto had played three times in the previous two days (played a doubleheader on Tuesday). They were able to take an early 2-0 lead, but the Jays then rallied to tie in the top of the fourth. From there, the Yanks bounced back w/ two more, including an Aaron Judge home run. But the key was reliever David Robertson pitching his way out of a bases loaded jam in the bottom of the eighth. Of course, given the dollars invested in this Yankees' bullpen, perhaps that shouldn't be all that surprising. Defense is still a bit of an issue here in the Bronx (NY leads AL w/ 17 errors), but offense is not as they are averaging 6.1 rpg here at home. Keep in mind that's with less than stellar results from Giancarlo Stanton. Dating back to last season, Judge has now reached base safely in 23 consecutive home games.

Starting tonight for the Yankees will be Sonny Gray. The veteran is off to a bit of a shaky start in 2018, but that has more to do w/ his last start where he allowed six runs in three innings to the red-hot Red Sox. He's had a lot more success in his career vs. Toronto as he has a 2.09 ERA in nine starts w/ the current Blue Jays lineup batting a collective .215 off him. Opposing Gray will be Marco Estrada, who owns an 11-5 lifetime TSR vs. the Yankees, including a perfect 6-0 in the Bronx. But his ERA in those 16 starts is 4.02, so he's hardly dominated them. Last time out, Estrada wasn't all that effective as he allowed four runs in four innings. He's also issued three walks in two of his three starts this year. He did beat the Yankees in his first start of the season, but did allow two home runs. It might seem like a high price on the Bombers here tonight, but I feel it's more than justifiable. 6* NY Yankees

10* Toronto (7:10 ET): It sure appears as if most of these first round series in the NHL playoffs won't be lasting very long. However, this one - a matchup of two 100+ point teams from the regular season - has the potential to do so. I say that as someone who had Boston in Game 1 (cashed 'em!) and called them "undervalued." But the scene has since shifted to Toronto where the Maple Leafs picked up a "must-win" in Game 3, 4-2, on Monday. After the team gave up 12 goals in the first two games, netminder Frederik Andersen stepped up huge for the Leafs in that last game, making 40 saves. The Leafs must do a better job at limiting the number of shot attempts by the Bruins and I think they will in what is another virtual "must-win" spot Thursday night.

Making this a virtual "must-win" is the fact that Toronto doesn't dare go back to Boston down 3-1 in the series. It would be "all over but the shouting" at that point considering the Bruins' 28-8-5 home record. But as was shown in Game 3, Boston is far more vulnerable on the road where they've gone 22-12-8 for the year. They've lost five straight on the road dating back to the end of the regular season. Furthermore, the home team has won the last five meetings between these Atlantic Division rivals. Toronto is 30-10-2 SU at home this year and outscoring teams by nearly a goal per game. They were top 10 in the league in goals per game at home during the regular season, Boston ironically being one of the teams ahead of them. 

Toronto's top line did not play well in the two games in Boston, but led the way in Game 3, Auston Matthews in particular. It should also be pointed out how much of a factor the Bruins' power play was in the first two games of the series. They went 5 for 10 w/ the man advantage, a really high success rate on an abnormal number of chances for the playoffs. They had only one power play in Game 3 and failed to score. Assuming Toronto can once again stay out of the box, they should be in good shape here. After accounting for a ridiculous 20 pts in the first two games, the Bruins' top line was shutout in Game 3. Those kind of things can happen when a series shifts venues and I like the home team to win for a fourth straight time in this series tonight. 10* Toronto

8* Under Sixers/Heat (7:05 ET): In many ways, this is a "mea culpa" of sorts for me after suffering an all-time bad beat w/ the Under in Game 2. With a total of 215.5, I was feeling pretty good about my bet when the game was 104-96 (in Miami's favor) w/ just over two minutes to go. It was a 106-98 game w/ less than 50 seconds remaining. By now, if you're already not aware, you can tell how this story ends. A late flurry, where 12 pts were scored in the game's final 25 seconds, ended w/ a "meaningless" Goran Dragic driving layup (w/ 1.2 seconds remaining!) and the game snuck Over the total (113-103 Miami win). Just like I thought Philly would not be able to replicate its offensive prowess from Game 1 in Game 2 (they didn't), I don't think Miami (Dwayne Wade specifically) will be as prolific here in Game 3 as they were in Game 2. Take the Under.

The other big story from Game 2 (and honestly, the one more cared about than my ill-fortune w/ the total) was the Heat bouncing back in a major way. Led by Wade's 28 points, the Heat ended the Sixers' 17-game win streak in stunning fashion, winning outright as 7.5-pt dogs. They took control w/ a huge second quarter, outscoring Philly 34-13. As I figured they would, the Sixers regressed big-time from three-point range. After making 18 of 28 attempts in Game 1, they were just 7 of 34 in Game 2. This time, it was the Heat's shooting from two-point range that was other-worldly. They went 31 of 57 inside the arc, which is almost 55%. Just like Philly's three-point shooting decline, Miami's two-point decline is almost as predictable here. Remember that the Sixers finished the regular season ranked #3 in defensive efficiency.

As much as I "want" the Under here, it is by no means solely an emotional play for some of the rationale listed above. Philly's scoring drops on the road (common for most teams), but in their case the decline is rougly four points. Opponents only shoot 43.4% from the floor against this team for the year. At the same time, Miami finished the regular season ranked 7th in defensive efficiency and also plays at the slowest pace of any playoff team save for San Antonio. Wade, in particular, will see his production from the last game decline. Also remember that Philadelphia is still w/o Joel Embiid. 8* Under Sixers/Heat 

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Two of the NL's bigger early-season surprises start a four-game series Thursday in an all-Pennsylvania showdown. The City of Brotherly Love will play host as the Phillies look to continue their hot start here at Citizen's Bank Park. They are 5-1 at home and 10-7 overall while outscoring opponents by 20 runs. The Pirates are 12-6, having just avoided a sweep at hands of Colorado at home last night (won 10-2). Their run differential is a comparable +21 and they've done a good deal of their damage on the road where they are 7-2. Something will have to give here and I believe it's going to be the Bucs, who I was not a big believer in coming into the season. I'm not entirely sold on the Phils yet either, but I did see a path to success for them coming into the year.

Jake Arrieta will get the baseball Thursday night for the Phillies as he faces the highest scoring team in the National League. Arrieta is no stranger to the Pirates though, having faced them numerous times over the past several seasons when he was w/ the Cubs. Arrieta's last start, despite having only only strikeout, was very good as he held Tampa Bay to just three runs (only two earned) in 6 2/3 IP. Though the Rays aren't anything special, it's still impressive that he was able to do that against an American League lineup (game was played in TB). Arrieta is 10-6 all-time vs. Pittsburgh w/ a 3.18 ERA. Note that prior to dropping two of three at similarly surprising Atlanta, the Phillies had won six straight. Admittedly, that streak came against some weak competition, but you can say the same about the teams the Pirates have been racking up wins against as well. 

Pittsburgh won 10-2 yday, thereby avoiding what would have been a sweep at home at the hands of Colorado. While I mentioned earlier that this was the top scoring offense in the NL right now, note that before yday's 10-run outburst, they had been held to two runs or fewer in four of five games. Starter Jameson Taillon is off to a great start this year at 2-0 w/ a 0.89 ERA and 0.689 WHIP in three starts, but he's faced some weak teams. In particular, the Reds and Marlins, both of whom he shutout for a total of 15 innings. Taillon had more walks than strikeouts his last time out and he certainly isn't going to be able to sustain his current pace moving forward. While many teams have had some unexpected days off due to weather so far, tonight marks the 10th consecutive day the Bucs will be taking the field. That may catch up w/ them as well. 10* Philadelphia

8* NY Yankees (6:35 ET): These two teams started the season by playing one another and ended up splitting a four-game set North of the Border. Since then, however, it has been the Jays taking flight as they are now 12-3 their L15 games after opening 0-2. The Yankees are a meandering 8-8 overall after they could only manage a split against the lowly Marlins and had multiple games vs. Detroit rained out. Both teams are currently staring up at the insanely hot Red Sox, who have gone 15-1 since their own Opening Day loss. But I suspect this series, tonight in particular, will see the team wearing pinstripes start to move up the AL East ladder. They're far too talented to have a mediocre record for long and they've hit quite well at home so far this season. 

The Blue Jays are one of just four teams to have crossed 100 runs scored this season, but in this matchup they're facing a team that averages a slightly higher number of runs per game (5.6 vs. 5.5) than they do. The Yankees average an impressive 6.4 runs per game here in the Bronx where they have not played in over 10 days. They've got a bit of a built-in advantage coming into Thursday in that they were off yday while Toronto was wrapping up its series w/ lowly Kansas City (won 15-5). The day before saw the Blue Jays play a doubleheader (swept that too). Meanwhile, the Yankees have played just twice since Saturday, so they're well-rested coming into this key early-season AL East showdown.

Starting here for the Yanks is the hefty lefty CC Sabathia, who is not exactly off to the best of starts here in 2018. Last time we saw him was nearly two weeks ago vs. Baltimore and he gave up three home runs before exiting in the fourth inning. The Yankees have lost both of his starts so far. He spent sometime on the DL w/ sore hip, but like the team, the veteran southpaw is well-rested coming into this evening. He faced Toronto in the first start of the season and is 17-11 all-time against them w/ a 3.59 ERA. He'll be opposed by Aaron Sanchez, who is using a change-up a lot more often this year and having a good deal of success w/ it. But he also allowed four runs when he faced the Yanks in that first series of the year, lasting only 5 2/3 IP. In two of his three starts so far, Sanchez has had more walks than strikeouts, obviously not a good sign. 8* NY Yankees

10* Over Ducks/Sharks (10:35 ET): In calling for San Jose to take Game 3 (they did, 8-1!), I said it was "high time" that the trend of the road team winning in this Pacific Division rivalry would come to an end. Prior to Monday night's result, the road team had won five straight head to head matchups between these two, obviously including the first two games of this best of seven series. Going back to last season, the road team was on a 7-1 head to head run. With their more than convincing win here on home ice in Gm 3, San Jose can now join Vegas in the Western Conference Quarterfinals w/ another win tonight. There was also another trend that halted w/ that Game 3 result, that being the Under going 5-1-3 the previous nine meetings. While its hard to imagine Anaheim "getting off the mat" after the Game 3 beatdown, Over is my call for Game 4. 

There have been plenty of shots on goal in this series, particularly in Game 3. Obviously, the deluge of Sharks' goals was the story from Game 3 as they scored eight times on 36 shots. But, somewhat "lost in the box score" is that Anaheim had 46 shots on goal. Yet they could only beat Martin Jones once as the San Jose goalie now has a remarkable .970 save percentage for the series. That number has to come down, no? Anaheim, which has found the back of the net just three times this entire series, is due to start scoring more especially if they can get anywhere near the number of shots off that they did in Game 3. However, the big concern is between the pipes where it appears like goalie John Gibson is still being affected by a late season injury. He gave up five goals (on 24 shots) in Gm 3. In relief, Ryan Miller was no better, allowing in three goals on 12 shots. 

San Jose got a ton of power play chances in Game 3 and made the most of them, converting four of eight opportunities. Obviously, that's something we shouldn't expected to be duplicated here. But it doesn't have to be w/ such a low O/U line. Anaheim has given up a ton of goals in games before (gave up six or more goals 5x in the reg season). The last three times they've given up at least six goals, the Over has cashed the next time out every time. Whether or not San Jose finishes off the sweep here, I do expect the goal distribution to be a lot more even, with Anaheim scoring more goals in this game than any of the previous three. But w/ the Sharks also scoring at least three times in every game in this series, it might not be enough. 10* Over Ducks/Sharks 

10* LA Angels (10:07 ET): In what setup as a marquee early season showdown in the American League, the Angels came up "small" at home on Tuesday, losing to the Red Sox by a score of 10-1. Now, much of the "sizzle" of the matchup was taken away when Angels' starter Shohei Ohtani had to leave the game in the second inning due to a blister on his pitching hand. Not that Ohtani was pitching well anyway. He allowed the first three runs and from there, it was pretty much over as Boston ended up w/ a massive 33-4 edge in total bases for the game. The loss snapped the Halos' seven-game win streak. However, I expect them to bounce back tonight as - last night aside - I'm still a bit skeptical over Boston's start as they've racked up a lot of wins so far against bad teams. 

The Angels are still off to the best start in franchise history (13-4 overall) and though it was disappointing to lose yday in front of such a big crowd, they may be better positioned to win tonight. Tyler Skaggs will get the starting nod and he's looked great in each of his first three starts this season. He's yet to yield more than two earned runs in any of them and last time out he was able to overcome four walks in what ended up being an easy 11-1 win at Texas. Skaggs has allowed just three runs total in his 16 IP and hasn't given up a single home run. The long-ball doomed the Angels last night as Red Sox leadoff man Mookie Betts hit three himself. Something interesting to note, however, is that Boston has yet to homer in B2B games all season. 

Pitching has been the real key to Boston's sizzling start as they've allowed three runs or fewer in 13 of the last 15 games. They've lost just one time since Opening Day and that was to the Yankees. But, as mentioned in yday's analysis, they've racked up a lot of wins against bad teams, such as five against Tampa Bay as well as sweeps of Baltimore and Miami. Rick Porcello will get the baseball tonight after taking a no-hitter into the seventh innings his last time out. He's delivered complete game efforts each of his last two times starting here in Anaheim and won five straight decisions dating back to last year. He's 3-0 w/ 1.83 ERA and 0.76 WHIP so far in 2018, but at this price I can't help but get down on the Angels. Porcello's career marks vs. LA are NOT good as he's 6-7 w/ a 5.82 ERA in 16 starts. Boston is the 1st team to start a season 14-2 since the '03 Giants, so they're due to drop a game. 10* LA Angels

10* Utah (8:05 ET): Oklahoma City took Game 1, 116-108 as 4.5-pt dogs. They were led by Paul George, who scored 36 pts including a Thunder franchise record eight three-pointers made (on 11 attempts!). He was 13 of 20 overall from the floor. Russell Westbrook added 29-13-8 while Carmelo Anthony had 15 pts. It hasn't always been that "easy" for OKC's "Big 3" and truthfully Game 1 wasn't all that easy, even though they led comfortably for the entirety of the second half. The Jazz did initially get out to an 11-2 lead and given their defensive exploits, I was a little surprised they surrendered it so quickly. I expect a Utah bounce back in Game 2 and will take the points as I won't be the least bit surprised if they snap a long losing streak here in OKC. 

The big storyline for Wednesday will be the health of two key players, one on each side. For Utah, Donovan Mitchell is listed as questionable. He suffered a left foot bruise in Game 1, but did go through practice on Tuesday. More concerning though is the questionable status of George for OKC. He bruised his right hip and was less participatory in the Thunder's team practice on Tuesday. Obviously, the loss of George would be the bigger deal of the two. Sources have indicated that Mitchell will play for Utah. Regardless, I expect the other Jazz players to improve upon their collective Game 1 performances. Meanwhile, I'm not sure how OKC would replace George's lost production. Right now, I'm operating as if he will play, but even so a duplication of Gm 1 seems highly unlikely. 

Utah was #2 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They were the only team besides San Antonio to allow fewer than 100 points per game. Let us not forget just how hot the Jazz were in the second half of the season. Going all the way back to January 24th, this is a team that won 20 of its final 26 regular season games and never during that stretch did they drop B2B contests. Including the regular season finale, now they have, putting them into a rare situation where we can also grab some points. It has been over three months since Utah last lost three straight times. Really, outside of a poor December (that bled into the start of January), this was a remarkably good team. At one point, they lost 13 of 16 games. Other than that streak, they have won 45 of 66 this season! Oklahoma City was NOT a good bet during the regular season, going 24-41 ATS as a favorite. They were also only 2-14 ATS vs. division opponents. 10* Utah

8* Indiana (7:05 ET): Followers of the famed "zig-zag" theory (bet ATS loser of previous game) will surely be on the Cavaliers here after the favorite was thoroughly embarrassed in Game 1 at home, losing 98-80 as seven-point chalk. As someone who was personally on the Pacers, even I have to admit that I was stunned at the ease w/ which they rolled to victory. The 80 pts allowed marked a season-low for Indiana and keep in mind it came against a team that has LeBron James, averages 110.5 PPG and ranked fifth in the regular season in offensive efficiency. But in all due respect to those "zig zag" players, I've got a bit of a different read on this series. I came into the postseason feeling the Cavs would be overrated. After all, they were a league-worst 32-49-1 ATS in the regular season. Maybe Cleveland bounces back and wins Game 2, but they won't cover. Take the points. 

It wasn't just that the Cavs were the worst team in the league at the pay window in the regular season. It's that they set fire to their backers' bankroll when favored, going 19-43-1 ATS. As discussed extensively in my Gm 1 analysis, this team has major issues defensively where they ranked 28th in efficiency, ahead of only lowly Sacramento and Phoenix. Among playoff teams, only New Orleans gives up more points per game. Shockingly though, defense was not the issue in Game 1, offense was. James posted another triple double, but the other four starters combined for just 25 pts. The team shot only 38.5% overall from the field, including 8 of 34 from three-point range and missed 8 of their 20 free throw attempts. Sure, I expect the offensive numbers to improve in Game 2, but if I'm a Cavs fan, there should be a fear about the old defensive issues costing them. Certainly, the inefficiencies on defense can be directly tied to the terrible ATS record from the regular season. 

Indiana has now beaten Cleveland four times in five matchups this year. They incredibly jumped out to a 21-pt lead in the first quarter Sunday and led by as many as 23. Cleveland did cut it to seven in the 2H, but got no closer than that. Victor Oladipo, the Pacers' best player, led the way w/ 32 points. Something else I mentioned in my Game 1 analysis is that even though Indiana is just 5-11 SU vs. Cleveland the L3 seasons, they are 11-4-1 ATS. True to form, here in Cleveland, they are now 2-7 SU in Cleveland and 7-2 ATS. Indiana's only loss to Cleveland this year came on a day when the Cavs shot a ridiculous 56.1% from the floor and still the final margin was only seven. Over the L3 seasons, Cleveland is 13-35 ATS when off a double digit loss (5-15 ATS this year) and 2-11 ATS after scoring 85 pts or less the previous game. 8* Indiana

10* Over Pelicans/Blazers (10:35 ET): Game 1 of this best of seven series treated me well as I took New Orleans plus the points and didn't even need them as they pulled the upset, 97-95 as five-point underdogs. Really, that final margin of victory is a tad bit misleading as the Pelicans led by double digits going into the fourth quarter (led by as many as 19!) before holding on for the outright victory. As I said he would be (in my analysis), Anthony Davis was the best player on the floor, leading the way w/ 35 pts, 14 rebounds and four blocks. While I gave NO an excellent shot at pulling said upset, what really struck me was the low-scoring nature of the contest. On average, Pelicans' games are among the highest scoring in the entire league. We should see far more points scored in Game 2. Take the Over.

The Blazers shot only 37.8% from the field in the series opener, continuing a trend of poor shooting that extends back to the end of the regular season. Three times in the last five games they've failed to score 100 pts, a real oddity for a team that averaged 105.5 PPG in the regular season. They've now been under that average for five straight games. The real sore spot has been the team's three-point shooting. Over the last 12 games, the Blazers have shot below 32% from distance TEN times. Game 1 certainly didn't help those percentages as they were just 12 of 39. Another issue was free throw shooting, or rather lack of attempts. The starting backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum combined for just three FT attempts and the team had only.

In the regular season, New Orleans was the ONLY team in the league to both score and allow 110+ PPG. Scoring was NOT an issue for this team down the stretch as over the final five regular season games they averaged a whopping 121.2 PPG. Davis looked unstoppable in Game 1 and I see no reason why we should expect any different moving forward. Going all the way back to early November, there has been just ONE instance of the Pelicans being held under 100 pts in B2B games. So, the bottom line is that both teams are likely to see a scoring increase for Game 2 and that means Over is the call. In the regular season, New Orleans was the #2 Over team in the league, trailing only Milwaukee.  10* Over Pelicans/Blazers

8* Los Angeles (10:35 ET): The Kings' backs are against the wall, down 0-3 in this series. Truth be told, I thought this first round matchup was tailor-made for an upset by the lower seed. But Vegas has been defying expectations throughout this historical expansion year, so what's another milestone? That said, all three games have been decided by just one goal. These teams have played seven times this year including the regular season and five of those have been one goal games. Four of those five have been won by the Golden Knights. That doesn't seem right. I'm prepared to go "down with the ship" with a Kings team that ranked #1 in the league in both goals allowed and penalty killing during the regular season. 

The Kings significantly outshot the Golden Knights in Game 3, 39-26, and blanked them for two periods. But then the damn broke as they allowed three quick goals to open the third period. At that point, their fate was largely sealed, though they did bounce back w/ a goal of their own. They also outshot the Golden Knights in Game 1. Now they were badly outshot in Game 2, but still managed to take the game into double overtime. Goaltender Jonathan Quick, save for the third period of the last game, has done his best to keep his team in this series, posting a .945 save percentage. I wouldn't go writing him and his team off just yet. Will they come back to win the series? Probably not. But they can definitely avoid a sweep. 

Consider Quick allowed just three goals in the series prior to the three-goal barrage by Vegas in the third period Sunday. That's eight periods + two OT sessions (201 minutes total). You have no choice but to tip your cap to this Vegas team, but there's been a reasonable amount of good fortune go their way in this first season. The Kings' own offense is due to pick up here w/ their backs against the wall. As I said prior to Game 3, this is their longest losing streak since mid-February. I can't see a team that I felt might win the series get swept. 8* Los Angeles

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): The Dodgers haven't had the best start to the season, thanks in large part to their struggles w/ the division rival Diamondbacks. But this series w/ a lesser NL West team, San Diego, should get them back on track. They easily took Monday's series opener, 10-3, at Petco Park and I anticipate they'll roll again tonight. While there may not be a "clear cut" worst team in MLB coming into the 2018 season, I submit the Padres as a contender to that dubious distinction as LY's team may have won 71 games (which isn't very good to begin with), but they were also outscored by a hideous 212 run margin, easily the worst in all of baseball. (The next worst margin was -159). Last year's NL West Champs move closer to a sweep after tonight. 

Alex Wood has an 0-3 TSR and a 5.09 ERA so far for the Dodgers and gets the baseball tonight. However, those numbers are highly misleading when you consider he also sports a 0.792 WHIP! How can one pitcher's ERA and WHIP be "world's apart" like that, you ask? Well, in his last start, Wood surrendered seven runs on seven hits, lasting only 3 2/3 IP. Of the 14 baserunners he's allowed this year, 10 have scored, which is highly irregular. Consider that opponents are batting just .209 against him and he has yet to issue a single walk. Needless to say, the percentage of baserunners scoring is going to decrease moving forward. Tonight seems like a logical place for that trend to begin as Wood has had plenty of success against the Padres in his career. He has a 2.62 ERA in 12 career starts against them w/ 54 K's in 57 IP. That includes a 2.25 ERA here at Petco w/ 35 K's in 28 IP.

San Diego starter Bryan Mitchell has a 5.27 ERA and 2.121 WHIP, but unlike Wood, there's no "sugarcoating" those lousy numbers. He too has an 0-3 TSR, but while Wood hasn't walked a single batter, Mitchell has walked 14! That's in only 13 2/3 IP as well. He has just three strikeouts, so he has to have the worst KW rate of any starter in baseball right now. He's yet to go six full innings in any start and lasted only three his last time out. The last two times Mitchell has started, the Padres have been shutout. Including a win earlier this season, the Dodgers are now 27-14 as road favorites of -175 or higher on the money line. Padres' pitching has now given up at least nine runs the last four times they've faced the Dodgers. 8* LA Dodgers

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): What a matchup we have here as the two hottest teams in the American League square off in the City of Angels. Boston and Los Angeles have started the season at 13-2 and 13-3 respectively and have - by far - the two best run differentials in the sport so far (Angels w/ slight edge at +48 to +42). Something else the Halos have in this series is homefield advantage. While they're 9-1 on the road, that will certainly help against a team like the Red Sox, who have won 13 of 14 since losing on Opening Day. Making matters even more intriguing is the Angels have two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani on the mound as his scheduled start on Sunday was pushed back due to rain. Backed by the top offense in the game, I like Ohtani & the Halos tonight. 

Boston was also rained out yesterday for what was supposed to the annual Patriot's Day game (vs. Baltimore). They'd taken the first three games for the O's, so the team was probably pretty bummed they couldn't rack up another likely win. But as hot as the Red Sox have been, let's note that they've largely been feasting on some pretty weak competition thus far. They did take two of three from the rival Yankees last week (at Fenway), but other than that they've played the Rays (six times), Orioles and Marlins. Those could very well end up as three of the bottom five teams in baseball by season's end, so take Boston's MLB-best 2.06 ERA w/ a "grain of salt." It's rare to find tonight's starter David Price in the underdog role, but he hasn't had much success in his career against LA, going just 5-7 w/ a 3.53 ERA in 16 starts. This will be one of the rare times that Price is NOT the best pitcher taking the mound in a given matchup. 

That's because he's matched up w/ Ohtani, who is quickly becoming the talk of baseball w/ his two-way exploits. In addition to already hitting three home runs as a DH, Ohtani has won both starts (both against Oakland) thanks to a ridiculous 0.462 WHIP. Last time out, he carried a perfect game into the seventh inning. He exited after allowing just one hit and posting 12 K's. Having a pitcher of that caliber is enough for my endorsement here, but when you back it up w/ the top offense in the game, it becomes a no-brainer. The Angels lead MLB in team batting average (.291), home runs (26) and OPS (.825). They destroyed the Royals over the weekend and have won seven in a row overall. Also, take note that Price left his last start early (after allowing four runs in the 1st inning) due to numbness in his pitching hand. That is the only game Boston has lost since Opening Day. 8* LA Angels

8* Oakland (10:05 ET): I'm not exactly "high" on the A's coming into the year, but that didn't stop me from taking (and cashing) them yday in what ended up being a relatively easy 8-1 win. Starter Daniel Mengden hadn't pitched well previously, but I said he would Monday night and sure enough he carried a shutout into the ninth inning. Of course, a large part of that endoresement had to do w/ who Mengden and the A's were facing, a lowly White Sox club that I'm expecting even less from in 2018. In only 13 games played this year, Chicago has already given up 71 runs. That's an average of over 5.0 per game, which obviously won't win you many ballgames. It's a similar read for tonight as I believe this series is one of the few all year that I'll be heavy on Oakland.

Maybe it was the long layoff, but the White Sox appeared rusty Monday. Thanks to mother nature, they hadn't taken the field since Thursday and it showed, particularly in the field as they committed four errors. It was bad enough that they couldn't solve Mengden, a pitcher that came in sporting some pretty bleak numbers and was 0-10 all-time (in 13 starts) here at the O.co Coliseum. They had almost as many errors (4) as they did hits (6) in the game as the offensive numbers remain pretty sad. Not only have the White Sox scored only three runs total in the last three games, they've been held to two or fewer six times already. The bullpen is pretty bad too w/ a 5.97 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. This puts a lot of pressure on tonight's starter Miguel Gonzalez, who has been bad in both starts so far this season (8.68 ERA, 2.144 WHIP) and never beaten the A's in five career tries (0-3, 4.11 ERA). Gonzalez has given up three home runs already this season.

Tonight marks the first time Oakland is coming off B2B wins. It's also going to be a unique atmosphere in the Coliseum as there will actually be people in the stands! Thanks to a giveaway where fans can attend for free, the A's are expecting their biggest house of the season tonight and have even opened the bleachers. This was done in conjuction w/ the 50th anniversary of the team moving to Oakland. Speaking of the past, the team has called up Trevor Cahill to start Tuesday's game. Cahill pitched here in Oakland from 2009-11 before being moved and was an All-Star in 2010. He made two starts for Triple-A Nashville and given what we saw Mengden do last night, this is a great spot for him. The White Sox are very bad and their record as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range is 18-46 the L3 seasons. 8* Oakland

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): I could essentially reprint my Game 3 analysis here and all of it would still apply. In fact, if you go back to Game 1 where I took Winnipeg, my read on this series has remained unchanged. It's all boils down to home ice when you're talking about the Jets and the Wild. While Winnipeg was a league-best 31-7-2 on home ice in the regular season, they are just a "ho-hum" 20-13-8 on the road. And while Minnesota is only 18-20-3 on the road, they are 27-6-8 here at the XCel Center. That was the fewest number of regulation losses in the entire league during the regular season. Furthermore, while the Jets may have the highest scoring average at home in the entire league (3.8 goals per game), no team allows FEWER goals per game than do the Wild (2.17). For a third time in this series (didn't play Game 2), I'm on the home team. 

Down 0-2 in the series and desperate for a win, the Wild responded "in kind" in Game 3. They won 6-2 w/ all of those goals scored in the first two periods (four in 2nd period), knocking the Jets' previously red hot goaltender Connor Hellebuyck out of the game. It was the most goals ever scored by the Wild in a playoff home game in franchise history. But, as stated above, it's typically all about the goaltending at the XCel Center and that means Devan Dubnyk. He stopped 29 of 31 shots in Game 3 and now has a .927 save percentage for the year here at home. The team has won 24 of his 34 home starts overall.

Winnipeg didn't lose often down the stretch, so I can understand some trepidation about betting against them off a loss. But Minnesota is a really tough home team. Then there's the fact that the home team has won seven of the previous head to head meetings between these teams. There is just no reason to expect that trend won't continue here in Game 4. 10* Minnesota

8* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): We caught a really bad break w/ the Bucks in Game 1 as overtime once again proved to be "an underdog bettor's worst friend." In retrospect, I gladly would have taken the SU loss w/ the Bucks in regulation. Taking four points from the oddsmakers, they were down three when Khris Middleton hit a near halfcourt heave w/ no time remaining to force OT. While that miracle shot gave the Bucks "second life," it proved to be our undoing as they wound up losing by six points. Worst of all is that, down four and w/ little chance to win, they fouled w/ just a few seconds remaining. They now get a chance at revenge in Game 2 and my read on this series remains unchanged as Boston is no more healthy than they were going into Game 1. Take the points.

Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo combined for 66 pts in Game 1 while Malcolm Brogden scored all of his 16 pts after halftime. Still, it was not enough. But Antetokounmpo has certainly had Boston's number this season as he's averaged over 33 pts, 11 rebounds and 5 assists per game. He's also shooting over 50 percent from the field. Unfortunately for the Bucks, he fouled out in overtime. One has to wonder if the Bucks could have pulled off the upset had he not. What we do know is the Bucks beat the Celtics twice in the regular season. One of those was in a great spot (2nd game of the year after Boston had just lost Gordon Hayward), but the other was late in the year when Boston was w/o Kyrie Irving. They've done it before and can do it again.

Not only are the Celtics w/o Irving and Hayward, they don't have Marcus Smart or Daniel Theis either. This is what I said in my Game 1 analysis: "It's going to take one heck of a Brad Stevens coaching job to get this team out of the 1st round, let alone further. The Celtics lost four of their last six regular season contests w/ one of the wins coming in a meaningless regular season finale against the sorry Nets. The other win was against Chicago. This team only outscored its opponents by 3.6 PPG to begin with and that includes Irving playing the majority of those games. I'm just not sure who they lean on for crunch-time scoring." Nothing I wrote there has changed in 48 hours. Boston may have been #1 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season, but the Bucks shot better in Game 1 and I don't expect Terry Rozier to go off again in Game 2. 8* Milwaukee.

10* San Jose (10:35 ET): At some point, the road team "has" to stop winning in this SoCal rivalry. Going back to the regular season, the road team has won five straight when the Sharks and Ducks matchup. Unfortunately for the Ducks, four of those games have been played in Anaheim, including the first two of this best of seven series. They now have their backs up against the wall as the series shifts to The Shark Tank w/ San Jose holding a commanding 2-0 series lead. So all that late season work to pass the Sharks for second in the Pacific is now for naught and I find it hard to believe the Ducks can fight back to make a series out of this, given they've already lost twice at home. Look for the Ducks to take a commanding 3-0 series lead after tonight.  

Anaheim's 18 road wins during the regular season was tied for third fewest among all playoff teams (only Colorado and Pittsburgh had fewer). The fact they went 26-10-5 SU at home in the regular season, only to drop both Games 1 and 2 has to be disconcerting to say the least. Goaltender John Gibson, who suffered an injury late in the regular season, does not appear to be his normal self in this series. He's stopped only 63 of 69 shots, falling well short of the standard set by his counterpart Martin Jones, who has stopped 53 of the 55 shots he's faced for a .964 save percentage. Having only found the back of the net twice in two games, the Ducks are really searching for answers right now and it's difficult to imagine them getting things corrected now that they're on the road.   

Meanwhile, we should expect Jones to continue his strong play between the pipes as he's allowed only eight goals total in his last four home starts against the Ducks. Anaheim's top two wingers - Corey Perry and Rickard Rakell are both without a point through two games. Only one defensemen - Hampus Lindholm - even has a point for the team. So the Ducks' best players simply aren't producing right now and this may simply be a series that was tailor-made for the Sharks as they are now 23-8 SU against the rest of the division this season including 5-1 vs. the Ducks. Though they did cede second place to them late in the season, it was San Jose that still finished w/ a better regular season goal differential as well. 10* San Jose

8* Oakland (10:05 ET): Not much is expected from either of these two clubs in 2018, but neither is off a loss coming into today's series opener as the White Sox were rained out Sunday and the A's won. Chicago is off to a 4-8 start, playing fewer games than most due to Mother Nature. With the second fewest number of games played to this point (Twins have played only 11), the fact that the White Sox have given up 63 runs looks even worse, especially when you compare it to a team like the Red Sox, who have played in 15 games, yet given up only 47 runs. Now Oakland is near the bottom of the league in the number of total runs allowed, but on a per game basis, they're actually giving up the same number as Chicago (5.3). But they're scoring more and I like them at home. 

Reynaldo Lopez has a 0.69 ERA and 0.846 WHIP through two starts, yet nothing to show for it (0-2 TSR). Of course, pitching for the White Sox, that only "comes w/ the territory." Now, Lopez was supposed to pitch each of the L3 days, but each time the weather would not cooperate. In fact, the White Sox were only able to get in one game over the weekend at Minnesota and in it, they were shutout (4-0). So Lopez will be taking the hill here on a lengthy eight days' rest, which almost might be TOO much. Impressive as he's been, Lopez did issue five walks in his last start, which is obviously concerning. So too is the White Sox lack of offense. Not only were they shut out in their last game, they managed only three hits. In the last six games, they've not had more than nine hits and have scored just 12 runs total (being shut out twice). 

For Oakland, this will be Daniel Mengden's fourth start of the season and the team is hoping for something similar to what they got yesterday from Sean Manaea in Seattle. Manaea pitched seven innings yesterday, giving up only one run (on a solo HR) on two hits as the A's beat the Mariners 2-1. Thanks to Manaea, the team's bullpen should be ready to go, if needed here. Mengden has somewhat incredibly never won at home in 13 tries, going 0-10. Tonight's game marks as good a shot as any at ending that embarrassing streak. Oakland took five of six from the White Sox last season and this is the team's return home after an eight-game trip along the West Coast. While the A's have yet to post B2B wins this season, I can't see a bad White Sox team that hasn't played much baseball of late coming in and taking this one. 8* Oakland