8* South Dakota (8:00 ET): I wouldn’t want to lay points with a Northern Colorado team that has seen four of its five wins come by three points or less. The Bears opened their season by beating Pacific 67-65 and then Hawaii 81-78. Then they proceeded to lose five of their next six contests, the lone win coming against Colorado College (non-DI team). That 93-53 final is the only time Northern Colorado has won a game by more than three points all season. They are coming off a two-point win (in OT) over Montana State in the Big Sky opener, then a three-point win over Montana on Saturday (a game they trailed by eight at the half). 

Now South Dakota is hardly some dominant force. But the Coyotes should be able to stay inside this generous number tonight. They’ll come in with some confidence after picking up their own non-DI victory on Friday, 93-37 over Waldorf College. South Dakota is now 5-3 SU overall and aside from a horrible second game of the season (at Drake), they’ve been competitive throughout. They were favored in three of their early wins. 

This is a non-conference game, so it is unlikely to have the favorite’s full attention. In fact, Northern Colorado heads to Arizona next week and that may be the game the coaching staff and players are thinking about right now. The Bears have not been favored by this many points in any game this season and I can’t see them shooting 53.5% again from the floor, like they did their last time out. The last five games have seen them allow 77.8 PPG on 48.3% shooting. 8* South Dakota

10* Under New Mexico State/New Mexico (9:00 ET): I’m going to try with the Under for a second time here with New Mexico State. Back on Friday, I was unsuccessful as the Aggies and UTEP combined for 141 points, six more than what the oddsmakers projected. Notable though is that the number of combined points was lower than the O/U line for tonight’s game against New Mexico. Now that’s understandable given these two teams went to a 101-94 final last week. But the average number of total points in NMSU games this season is still only 148.4 PPG. 

For more than half the game, NMSU and UTEP looked to be headed for an Under. I was feeling good when the game was 34-34 with just over 15 minutes remaining. But those final 15 minutes saw both teams more than double their scoring. The Aggies finished the game by shooting an unreal 56.6% from the field. They also hit 40% from three-point range for the second straight game. I just can’t see them matching those numbers again tonight.

New Mexico has not played since the first meeting with NMSU. Aside from a 73-58 loss to Towson, virtually every Lobos’ game has been high-scoring. You can also say the same for NMSU as their last six games have all gone Over the total. But this is likely to close as the highest O/U line for either team this season. The number was 143.0 last week, so it’s a substantial increase from that. The Under is a combined 20-6 in these teams last 26 Monday games. 10* Under New Mexico State/New Mexico

10* Buffalo (8:20 ET): After a weak Sunday slate, we’ve certainly got something to “sink our teeth into” here as New England faces Buffalo on Monday Night Football. These are the two top teams in my own personal power rankings. Winners of six straight (SU and ATS), the Patriots are the hottest team in the league right now. Last time we saw them, they blew out the Titans 36-13. That was their third straight win by 23+ points. But it would be unwise to disregard what the Bills have done this season. They were the Super Bowl favorite not even a month ago. I’m going to lay the short number in this one.

What’s hurt the perception of Buffalo over the last month is two confounding losses. One was at Jacksonville, by a score of 9-6, and I still have no explanation for what happened there. A 41-15 loss to the Colts two weeks ago was easier to explain as the Bills were -4 in turnovers in that game. Despite losing by 26, they actually had a slight edge in yards per play. It was a strong bounce back game Thanksgiving Night against New Orleans as the Bills went on the road and won 31-6 as 6.5-point road favorites. With 10 days between games, I expect the Bills to be sharp on their home field tonight. 

You’ve got to respect New England’s 5-0 SU road record. However, they’ve gone off as the favorite in four of those five games. So you can’t be too surprised by their success. The only time they haven’t been favored on the road was against the Chargers, who have the worst home field advantage in the league. The other four road wins were against the Jets, Texans, Panthers and Falcons. Buffalo’s defense, which is #1 in total yards allowed, should make Mac Jones “look like a rookie” tonight in what amounts to a statement game for the reigning AFC East Champs. New England is “due” to lose here. 10* Buffalo

10* Miami (7:35 ET): Two teams missing star players meet on the court Monday as the Heat play host to the Grizzlies. Surprisingly, Memphis has gone 4-0 SU and ATS without Ja Morant, a stretch which includes a record-setting 152-79 beatdown of the Thunder last Thursday. But you can’t play the likes of OKC every night and even though that win (largest MOV in NBA history) was followed by a 97-90 win in Dallas on Saturday, I just don’t think that the Grizz can continue to win like this without Morant. 

Miami has been without Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler, resulting in them losing three of their last four games. Adebayo is out for six weeks, so forget about him for now. But there’s a chance Butler could return to the lineup tonight. Regardless if he does or not, expect the Heat to win “going away.” There’s still enough firepower on hand here, including Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson. Look for the team to shoot a lot better tonight than it did vs. Milwaukee (40.5%) on Saturday. 

Though it’s the 73-point win that grabbed all the headlines, the Grizzlies have been winning mostly because of their defense, which has held the last four opponents well below 40% from the field. That likely cannot continue. Even with the record-setting win over OKC, the Grizz still have a negative point differential for the season and on the road they are being outscored by over eight points per game. Miami remains a top four team in the Eastern Conference and their defensive numbers are set to improve. 10* Miami

9* Denver (8:20 ET): I think that this spread is way too high given these two AFC West teams have nearly identical YTD point differentials. Denver has outscored their opponents by 32 points this season while Kansas City is +31. I took the Broncos last week and as a slight home dog they delivered an impressive outright win, 28-13 over the Chargers. That has them at 6-5, tied with the Chargers and Raiders for second place in the division, one game behind the first place Chiefs. I’m taking the points here.

Chiefs HC Andy Reid has been profitable in his career when off a bye, but he’s just 1-3 ATS the L4 times in that situation. Going back to last year, Kansas City has been a disaster at the betting window, going just 6-19 ATS the L25 games. Prior to the bye, the Chiefs did beat the Raiders 41-14 and the Cowboys 19-9. But those were two of their biggest wins all season. Before that, they had just two double digit wins and both came on the road against NFC East teams. At home, the Chiefs are just 1-5 ATS this season and averaging only 21.5 PPG.

Believe it or not, this will be just the fourth time this year that Denver is an underdog. I already mentioned cashing in on them last week at home vs. the Chargers. But I also had them +10 in Dallas back on November 7th when they won outright 30-16. This is a huge game for the Broncos as they’ve lost 11 straight times to the Chiefs, many of them blowouts. They aren’t looking to get blown out on national TV. A defense that allows the league’s fewest number of trips into the red zone should - at the very least - help the Broncos stay within the number. 9* Denver

10* Toronto (6:05 ET): The Raptors are just 4-10 (SU and ATS) over their last 14 games with three separate three-game losing streaks. But, in the midst of what is a pretty long homestand, they did just knock off the reigning NBA Champion Bucks Thursday night, 97-93 as 4.5-point dogs. That was no small feat as Milwaukee entered the game on an 8-game winning streak. Toronto’s home record of 3-8 SU still leaves a lot to be desired, but I’m willing to lay a small number on Sunday in what looks to be a favorable spot.

The Raptors will host Washington tonight. The Wizards are coming off a 116-101 loss to Cleveland on Friday where at one point they were on the wrong end of a 27-2 run. They never led after the first quarter and at one point found themselves behind by as many as 36 points. Now the Wiz are set to play three road games in four nights. This hasn’t been a very good road team as they score just 101.8 PPG away from home. The last six road games have seen the Wizards go 1-5 ATS.

Toronto has failed to score 100 points in four consecutive games while shooting around 40%. You’ve got to figure they are due to breakthrough offensively. The Wizards are not exactly known for their defense and have given up an average of 110.4 points their L5 games. The Raptors have done a good job defensively, at least recently, holding their last three opponents all below 42% shooting. They held Memphis to 38.7% and Milwaukee to 37.6%! The upcoming schedule is favorable and this is a team due to go on a run at home. 10* Toronto

8* Over Jaguars/Rams (4:05 ET): Both the Jaguars and Rams come into this Week 13 matchup on three-game SU losing streaks. However, there are longer streaks at play as well. The Rams have failed to cover five straight games, a streak that dates back to mid-October. The Jaguars have gone Under in six straight games. I know we’re talking about one of the worst offenses in the NFL here (Jacksonville) going cross-county to face a Rams team that’s had some poor offensive outings of late. But I’ve got a “hunch” that this one is set to go Over. The Rams should score a lot of points in this game. 

The Rams scored 28 last week against the Packers. The problem is they also gave up 36. The last three games, again all losses, have seen the Rams’ defense allow an average of 31.7 PPG. While they aren’t likely to give up that many here to the Jaguars, I think they’ll still give up enough to allow this game to go Over the total.

Though they only scored 16 points against the Titans and 10 against the 49ers, there’s really nothing “wrong” with the Rams offense. As I mentioned above, they put up 28 points and 5.8 yards per play last week. Los Angeles comes into this game averaging 27.2 PPG and will be facing a Jacksonville defense that gives up 27.0 PPG on the road. These teams play only once every four years, but for what it’s worth, the Over is 4-0 the L4 meetings. 8* Over Jaguars/Rams

8* Chicago (1:00 ET): While I’m not going so far as to predict a Bears outright victory here, I do believe they can keep the game close at home. They’re coming off a “mini-bye” as Monsters of the Midway last played on Thanksgiving when they defeated Detroit 16-14 as three-point favorites. They may not have covered the spread, but HC Matt Nagy (on the hot seat) will gladly take the SU win as it snapped a five-game losing skid. The Bears’ last three games have been decided by a total of seven points.

Arizona is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS on the road. Winning every road game is tough enough. Covering them all is very rare. The 9-2 Cardinals are coming off their bye, but QB Kyler Murray remains a “gametime decision” as the team looks to be cautious given Murray’s injury history. They probably think they don’t need him to beat the Bears, especially after backup Colt McCoy led a 23-13 “upset” in Seattle two weeks ago. The Cards are actually 2-1 with McCoy as the starter. My view is that if Murray does play, we’re going to get a better number. So you may want to wait closer to kickoff to bet this one.

Andy Dalton will start for the Bears. Not inspiring, but he threw for 317 yards last week. It was the first 300+ yard day by a Bears QB since Nick Foles last season. Also, RB David Montgomery is back. Look for edge-rusher Robert Quinn to pressure whomever Arizona’s QB ends up being. I just can’t see the Cardinals winning a seventh straight road game by double digits. Only two other teams (in NFL HISTORY) have done it six times. In addition to Murray, WR DeAndre Hopkins is also a game-time decision. Hold your nose and take the points in this one. 8* Chicago

10* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): With the Bengals favored by only three points at home, oddsmakers are essentially saying they see these teams as “even” on a neutral field. I have a different view. After B2B impressive wins (over the Raiders and Steelers), Cincinnati has a +83 YTD point differential. That’s third best in the AFC, trailing only the Patriots and Bills. Don’t forget the Bengals also blew out the Ravens, 41-17 back in Week 7. That’s a Ravens team that blew out the Chargers 34-6 the week prior. Los Angeles, despite being 6-5 SU, comes into this game with a -20 YTD point differential.

I chose to fade the Chargers last week and that ended up being a wise decision. They went to Denver as 2.5-point favorites and lost outright 28-13. Despite outgaining the Broncos, LA never led and trailed most of the way by double digits. More bad news is the fact this just isn’t the Chargers “time of year.” In Weeks 10 through 13, they are 2-8 SU and 0-10 ATS. It gets worse as they are also 1-7 SU/ATS coming off a division loss. The fact that this team has been outscored tells me they aren’t as good as their record. The defense really struggles to stop the run (164 YPG allowed on the road) and has given up an average of 31.3 PPG the L7 weeks.

You can look for the Bengals’ offense, which has scored 31+ points in five of its last six games, to take advantage of that suspect Chargers’ defense. Also note that this is an early start for the road team (10 AM West Coast time), which is a disadvantage. The last time the Chargers played a 1 PM ET game was … the blowout loss to Baltimore. They are averaging only 19.2 PPG on the road. That just won’t cut it against a Bengals team that is one of the most improved in the league this year. The Cincinnati defense has allowed just 23 points in the L2 games. 10* Cincinnati

10* Canisius (1:00 ET): Going with the short home dog in this one as Canisius should be highly motivated facing a team that’s unbeaten, ATS that is. Monmouth is 7-0 vs. the number thus far, one of only four teams in the country to be 6-0 ATS or better. The Hawks are also 6-1 SU with the only loss coming at Charlotte in the season opener. Since then, they’ve gone on quite the run, which includes an outright upset at Cincinnati two weeks ago. But you’ve got to think they are due to “slip up.”

Another motivating factor for Canisius is that they’ve lost five straight to their MAAC rivals (also 0-5 ATS in those games). Furthermore, the Golden Griffins have lost two straight at home - 89-75 to Cornell and 74-68 to Fairfield. They went off as the favorite in both games. After losing the conference opener, Canisius is now 2-6 SU on the year, so this is pretty close to a “must-win” for them. It’s just tough for me to see this team losing three in a row at home. Plus, Monmouth is due to drop a game, at least at the betting window.

Sure enough, Canisius is a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS its last three times as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points. They were blistered by hot shooting in the L2 games as Cornell shot 61.8% and Fairfield shot 53.6%. Monmouth has averaged just 59 points the L2 games and will be playing its third straight away game and second in three days. They benefited from the opponent (Niagara) shooting just 28.6% on Friday. That’s quite the difference from Canisius’ last two opponents. Look for the shooting to “even out” in this early Sunday start. Take the points. 10* Canisius

7* Manchester United (9:00 AM ET): The managerial debut of Raif Radnick takes place Sunday at Old Trafford with Man U welcoming in Crystal Palace for some Premier League action. We’ll see if the typical “new manager bounce” benefits Man U the same way it has for so many other soccer sides through the years. The Red Devils could certainly use it. They are currently seventh in the table and six points adrift of the top four. With 4th place West Ham shocking Chelsea on Saturday, the gap between the Champions League places and everyone else is growing. So the three points are critical for Man U as they can cut their own deficit in half. 

I think Crystal Palace is somewhat of an underrated side. While they are in 11th in table, the Eagles are sixth in xPts (expected points), which is actually higher than United. But it’s going to be VERY difficult for Palace to get over their 1-0 loss at Leeds United last match week. I had CP +0.5 in that one and watched in horror as they conceded the match’s lone goal in stoppage time, on a penalty no less. The penalty only came about because of VAR, an additional “kick in the teeth.” Palace was somewhat dominated on possession though, so perhaps it was a deserved defeat. 

While Tuesday was just the fourth loss of the campaign for Palace, they still only have three wins. Only the bottom three in the table have fewer than that. Palace is winless in its last three EPL fixtures, losing to Leeds and Aston Villa while playing to a 3-3 draw with Burnley. While this is a quick turnaround for United after a 3-2 win over Arsenal on Thursday, I still think Palace is at the bigger disadvantage due to being off the crushing loss. Man U should be highly motivated here, not just playing for a new manager, but they are also looking for their first home win over CP since 2017. 7* Manchester United

8* Iowa (8:00 ET): This is a very tricky spot for #2 Michigan as they are off the emotional win over Ohio State (1st time beating the Buckeyes since 2011) and now find themselves as double digit favorites over a tough Iowa team. All the Wolverines need to do here is win and they are on to the College Football Playoff. But winning by double digits against a team that is 10-2 SU with six straight victories over ranked opponents will not be easy to do. I’m taking the points here as favorites are on a 2-8 ATS run in Big 10 Championship Games, including 0-5 when it’s not Ohio State. 

Michigan is ranked #2 in the country right now, but so was Iowa at one point earlier in the year. That was pre-CFP rankings, but it’s still worth noting. While the Hawkeyes were actually underdogs to a 3-8 Nebraska team last week, they’ve never gotten more than four points - in any game - from the oddsmakers this season. I know that they are not the prettiest team (outgained in five of the last six games) and I was actually on the other side (Nebraska) last Friday. But an additional day between games and a stout defense should keep this one close throughout. 

Michigan has been very good at the betting window thus far. In fact, they have the best ATS record in the country at 10-2 (4-0 L4). But this is arguably the most pressure they’ve had to deal with all season. It’s their first ever Big 10 Championship Game appearance and I just don’t see the favorite scoring enough to cover this number. The running game that was so effective last week vs. Ohio State now faces a top 15 defense in rush yards allowed. Teams off B2B ATS wins heading into Conference Championship Games are just 42.1% ATS all-time. 8* Iowa

8* Under Wake Forest/Pittsburgh (8:00 ET): This isn’t the ACC Championship Game anyone expected as it will be the first to not involve Clemson since 2014. It was Wake Forest unseating the reigning six-time ACC Champions in the Atlantic Division, even though they lost to the Tigers 48-27 (in Death Valley) two weeks ago. Over in the Coastal, Pittsburgh took advantage of disappointing seasons from North Carolina and Miami to win its second division title in four years. Both teams enter the game at 10-2 straight up, though Pitt has been better ATS (9-3 vs. 6-5-1). It’s just the second 10-win season ever for WF and the first since 1981 for Pitt. 

Everyone, including the oddsmakers, is expecting a high-scoring game here in Charlotte. Both offenses are in the top four nationally by averaging just over 42 PPG. Last night’s C-USA Title game had a similarly high total and those teams (Western Kentucky & UTSA) blew past the number. But I expect this game, which is not being played indoors, to go a little differently. This could close as the highest O/U line for any Pitt game under HC Pat Narduzzi. The previous high (72) was the game vs. North Carolina on November 11th and the final score in that one ended up being just 30-23. 

Prior to last night’s C-USA shootout, taking the Under was quite profitable this College Football season when the O/U line is 70 points or higher. I cashed the Under in last year’s ACC Championship Game (Clemson-Notre Dame) when the number wasn’t quite as high. I think Pitt’s defense is going to make a surprising number of stops in this game while their offense has failed to top 34 points in five of the last seven games. There’s going to be plenty of points scored here, but not as many as the oddsmakers are calling for. With the “world” on the Over, I’m going the other way. 8* Under Wake Forest/Pittsburgh

10* Over Bulls/Nets (7:35 ET): These are the two top teams in the Eastern Conference right now. With Brooklyn, that’s not a surprise as they came into the season as the consensus top team in the East (even with the status of Kyrie Irving). Chicago has been a surprise as they are 15-8 SU and just a 1.5 games behind the Nets. This is the best start by any Bulls team since 2015-16 and it includes an impressive 23-point win over the Nets (at home) last month. The Bulls come into tonight off B2B wins. 

Brooklyn played last night and was able to outlast the pesky Timberwolves 110-105. But they did not cover the 7.5-point spread. The game also stayed Under despite a combined 65 free throw attempts from the two teams. That high number of FTs was offset by poor three-point shooting, especially from the Nets, who were just 6 of 23 from behind the arc. I expect them to improve - dramatically - on that number here. The Over had been 5-1 in the Nets’ L6 games prior to last night with five straight seeing at least 220 total points scored. 

Chicago’s last two games have both been high-scoring as they beat the Hornets 133-119 and the Knicks 119-115. The Bulls have displayed very good three-point shooting so far, making 37% of their attempts from behind the arc. That percentage is even higher on the road. Looking at the Nets’ 3-pt defense, I just don’t think they can continue to hold teams to 30.9%. Brooklyn didn’t shoot well in the previous meeting with Chicago (39.5%) while the Bulls were only 29.0% from three. I think those percentages will be improved tonight. 10* Over Bulls/Nets

8* Cincinnati (4:00 ET): There is obviously a TON of pressure on #4 Cincinnati here as the Bearcats are looking to become the first “Group of Five” team to ever make the College Football Playoff. They are 11-0 and ranked #4, so all they probably need to do here is to win the game straight up. But why leave things to chance? If Michigan, Alabama and Oklahoma State all win today, then the Bearcats are probably “sweating” on Selection Sunday. However, a big win from Cincy on Saturday would essentially render all other results irrelevant to their plight and guarantee them a spot in the top four. So I’m laying the points. 

 The fact that this American Conference Championship Game is taking place at (historic) Nippert Stadium (where Cincy has won 26 in a row) is being underrated in my eyes. This season has seen the Bearcats go 6-0 SU at home with the average margin of victory being 32.5 points per game. Now they’re obviously not playing teams as good as Houston every week. But this will be just the fourth time this season that Cincinnati is favored by fewer than two touchdowns. They are 3-0 ATS previously, beating Notre Dame and Indiana on the road and SMU here at home. All three wins were by double digits.

With their own 11-game win streak, Houston is seemingly a “trendy dog” in this matchup. Normally, I gravitate towards the underdog, but not when they’re trendy like this. The last two times Cincinnati has faced Houston, the Bearcats have won by a combined 43 points. It was 38-10 LY here at Nippert Stadium as the home team finished with a massive 510-282 edge in total yardage. Houston has failed to cover in five straight December/January games and I just don’t think they are on Cincinnati’s level. My power ratings say this spread should be closer to two touchdowns, so I’ll lay the points. 8* Cincinnati

10* Alabama (4:00 ET): I think we can all agree that Georgia was the best team in the country during the regular season. The #1 ranked Bulldogs trailed only four times all year, only once after the first quarter and never in the second half. They had a 14+ point halftime lead in 10 of their 12 games, including each of the last five. They come into the SEC Championship Game fresh off their third shutout season, a 45-0 win over Georgia Tech as 35-point favorites. Unsurprisingly, the Dawgs have been successful at the betting window (8-4 ATS) as well, but they are about to encounter their toughest test of 2021. I look at this line and think it’s a big mistake to be doubting Nick Saban this much. 

#3 Alabama will be an underdog here for just the second time in its last 165 games. This seems to be the first time in seemingly FOREVER that public sentiment seems to have shifted AGAINST Saban and the Crimson Tide. I think a lot of that has to do with last week’s close call against Auburn, a 24-22 win that went to four overtimes. The Tide were a strong fade for me in the Iron Bowl as I thought the 20.5-point spread was way too high for a rivalry game. But it should be noted they outgained Auburn 388-159. Again, given the Tide’s resume, doubting them here seems foolish to me. An outright win by the dog seems more likely here than a blowout loss, especially with Bama having beaten Georgia six straight times, including twice in the SEC Championship Game. 

Taking the points here also seems prudent given the situation as it relates to the College Football Playoff. Alabama probably needs to win this game. It is possible that they could remain in the top four even with a loss, but it would have to be a close loss. Georgia is trying to protect the #1 seed, but is already assured of being in the playoff no matter what. So there’s a greater sense of urgency on the Crimson Tide sideline. Much is being made over the Tide’s ability to protect QB Bryce Young against the #1 ranked UGA defense. But I think that Bama’s defense, led by Will Anderson Jr (leads the country in sacks and TFL) can put pressure on Georgia QB Stetson Bennett. 10* Alabama

7* Barcelona (10:15 ET): What LOOKS to be a relatively even fixture on paper is one that I believe will go to the host Barcelona on Saturday. Oddsmakers concur with my assessment, installing Barca as nearly 2:1 favorites over a Real Betis side that sits four points ahead, but is also level when it comes to YTD goal differential. Barca has dominated this fixture in recent years (more on that in a bit) and I think has played better football (or soccer, if you prefer) than most realize this La Liga season. 

Let’s start with the fact that Barcelona has earned 17 out of a possible 24 points on home soil this campaign. That’s tied for second most in La Liga, trailing only Real Sociedad, but the Catalan giants are actually first in xPts, counting only home matches. Barca has also benefited from the “new manager bounce” as they are undefeated since Xavi took over, winning twice and playing to one draw. Both wins came on the domestic side as Barca defeated Espanyol 1-0 on Nov 20, then Villarreal 3-1 last weekend. Barca is actually unbeaten across its last six competitions (three wins and three draws) and has conceded one goal or fewer in its last seven. 

As alluded to above, Barca has had Real Betis’ number, capturing the previous five league games against Los Verdiblancos. That includes a 5-2 win here at Camp Nou last season. Betis comes in as winners of four straight, but only two of the wins came here in the Spanish top flight and they were both against bottom tier sides (Elche, Levante). The other wins came in the Europa League and Copa del Rey. Since November 21st, Betis has played twice the number of matches Barca has (4 to 2) and that very well could catch up with them here. The Copa del Rey victory, while easy (4-0), came midweek (on Wednesday). Meanwhile, Barca has been off the pitch for a full week, a sabbatical during which Betis has played twice. This just boils down to me thinking the Green & White (Betis) aren’t as good. This is a critical three points for the home side and I think they get them. 7* Barcelona

10* New Orleans (8:35 ET): The Pelicans look for revenge tonight after being run out of their own gym in their last game. The Mavericks beat them 139-107 on Wednesday while shooting a blistering 68.7% from the field. That kind of offensive performance doesn’t happen all that often (it was a franchise-record!), so I think it’s safe to say we can expect colder shooting from the Mavs here tonight. I know that New Orleans has gotten off to a bad start this season (6-18), but they’d won three of four going into Wednesday night’s game. This is a spot where I want to take the points. 

Aside from the top three teams (Phoenix, Golden State & Utah), all of whom are VERY good, the Western Conference is looking a little depth-shy this season. The Mavs come into tonight in fourth place, but they’ve actually allowed more points than they’ve scored this season. Jason Kidd’s team had to be ecstatic with their own offensive effort Weds night considering their previous two opponents shot 57% and 56% against them. In their last home game, Dallas lost 114-96 to Cleveland. The inconsistency of this team makes it hard for me to believe they are capable of turning in a second straight dominant performance, which is what is needed with this kind of spread. 

The Mavs have lost five of seven, so New Orleans was the hotter team entering Wednesday’s game. It boiled down to Dallas coming out red hot. The Mavs were 18 of 34 from three-point range, which certainly won’t be duplicated here as they are just 34.1% for the year from behind the arc. Not only are the Pelicans 5-2 ATS off their previous seven straight up losses, but the Mavs are just 1-4 ATS the previous five times they’ve been off a double digit win. Take the points here. 10* New Orleans

10* Under New Mexico St/UTEP (8:00 ET): New Mexico State has gone Over in each of its last five lined games, including a wild 101-94 home loss to rival New Mexico (that did NOT go to overtime) earlier in the week. The Aggies will rematch the Lobos in Albuquerque on Monday. There’s a chance they might be looking ahead to that rematch, but regardless I expect tonight’s game in El Paso to be a lot lower-scoring than recent NMSU contests. This is primarily due to the fact the home team (UTEP) is allowing just 59.3 PPG this season. Take the Under. 

At home, UTEP is allowing just 53.7 PPG. They’ve played four games here so far and none of the opponents have been able to score more than 57 points. Now, none of those opponents were all that formidable (two were non-DI teams), but it’s not as if New Mexico State is some kind of juggernaut either. This will be the Aggies’ first “true” road game of the season. They’ve played three neutral site games so far and one of them (against Utah State) saw them held to just 58 points 

UTEP is just 236th in points per possession, so I wouldn’t count on them scoring very many points Friday night. It was just two games ago, here at home, they finished with 40 points in a loss to UC Riverside (where the Miners were 4.5-point favorites!). Throw in the fact that NMSU doesn’t exactly play at the fastest tempo (276th) and you’ve got the perfect recipe here for their Over streak to be halted. The Under is 35-17 in UTEP’s last 52 home games, including 6-2 the L8 when they were a dog. 10* Under New Mexico St/UTEP

8* Philadelphia (7:35 ET): The 76ers come into Friday having won just 3 of their last 12 games. They lost 88-87 in Boston on Wednesday as Joel Embiid, still working his way back from a three-week absence due to COVID-19, struggled again. Embiid had 42 points and 14 rebounds in his first game back, but has gone a miserable 7 of 33 from the floor in the two games since. As a team, the 76ers are shooting just 40.8% in their L5 games. But I expect them to “step up” tonight in what amounts to a “must-win” game at Atlanta. 

The Hawks have played much better than the 76ers recently, winning 8 of their last 10 including a 114-111 at Indiana on Wednesday. But they remain short-handed as Bogdan Bogdanovic, Cam Reddish and De’Andre Hunter all remain out of action. Trae Young really carried the team with a 33-point effort on Wednesday, but the Hawks probably can’t rely on that again here. This is a team that is heavily two-point dependent and the Sixers do an excellent job at defending inside the arc, especially with Embiid on the floor. 

Despite Embiid’s struggles in the L2 games, the All-Star clear makes Philly more formidable. Again, I expect the Sixers to break out of their recent shooting slump here (Atlanta is just 23rd in defensive efficiency). With a healthy Embiid, they smoked the Hawks earlier in the year, 122-94, as they shot 53.5% from the field. That gave them a measure of revenge after being eliminated from LY’s playoffs by the Hawks, but you know Philly will be hungry for more. The Sixers’ last two losses were both by one point and they are better than their 11-11 SU record. Take the points. 8* Philadelphia

8* UTSA (7:00 ET): Bettors REALLY seem eager to “write off” UTSA now that the Roadrunners are no longer unbeaten. There is no denying the fact that last week’s 45-23 loss to a hot North Texas team (that was also looking to become eligible) was a bad showing from the West Division Champs of C-USA. But “writing off” a team that won its first 11 games and is playing for a conference championship on its home field seems like a mistake. With UTSA moving from slight favorite to home dog, I’m taking the points Friday night. The Roadrunners are 6-0 SU at home this season, winning by an average of 22.2 PPG! 

Western Kentucky, the champs of C-USA’s East Division, is a team deserving of respect. But even after seven straight wins and going 5-0 ATS L5 games, the Hilltoppers probably should not be favored here. None of those seven straight wins have been against teams with winning records. Two were against 6-6 teams (Old Dominion and Middle Tennessee) while the rest were against the dregs of Conference USA. It should be noted that WKU’s last loss came at the hands of UTSA, 52-46 in Bowling Green. With the Hilltoppers losing that game outright as a home favorite, I don’t see how they are now favored on the road. 

Though an unbeaten season was on the line, last week seemed like a “flat spot” for UTSA. They were coming off a thrilling 34-31 home win over UAB (thanks to a last second TD) that clinched them a spot in this C-USA Title Game. So, in essence, the Roadrunners really had nothing to play for in Denton. It was rainy and three early fumbles against proved to be killers as they fell behind 17-3 in the first quarter. Now they’re back at home and I expect an offense that has averaged “only” 28 points the L3 games to get back on track against a WKU defense they hung 52 points and 564 total yards on in the first meeting. Also, at home, UTSA’s defense is allowing just 13.0 PPG. 8* UTSA

10* Sacramento State (10:00 ET): Both Montana and Sacramento State head into the Big Sky opener off humbling defeats. Stepping up in class to face a team from the Pac 12 did not go well for either side as Sacramento State lost 105-59 at Arizona on Saturday while Montana was an 87-47 loser in Oregon on Monday. While Montana had won three in a row prior to that blowout loss, they are at a disadvantage here, playing their third game in seven days and second straight time on the road. 

The loss to Arizona is the only game Sacramento State has played in the last nine days. The Hornets have had two more days to prepare for this conference opener than Montana has. That’s pretty key in a matchup where I don’t see much of an edge for the favorite, even if the amount of time between games was equal. Also, Sacramento State happens to be 5-0 ATS off its previous five SU losses. 

Then you’ve got to take into account the fact Montana is 0-3 SU/ATS on the road so far. While two of those games were against teams from “power conferences” (Miss State and Oregon), both went VERY badly (Montana lost by a combined 77 points) and the Golden Grizzlies also lost outright (as seven-point favorites) at North Dakota. An 89-83 home win last year, in overtime, marked the first time Sacramento State beat Montana since 2017. You have to figure they’ll be hungry for their first regulation win in the rivalry in nearly five years. At home, the Hornets are absolutely capable of pulling the outright upset here. Take the points. 10* Sacramento State

10* Under Thunder/Grizzlies (8:05 ET): While I did cash an Over ticket involving the Thunder last night, that required a 70-point fourth quarter with 41 points coming from the opposition. Losing two straight times to the Rockets (who have the worst record in the Western Conference) should tell you “all you need to know” about the current state of OKC, who has now lost seven in a row (five by seven points or less). It is highly unlikely that they will match last night’s 110 point effort here as that was the team’s highest scoring game in more than a month. 

Memphis had a seven-game Over run halted on Tuesday when they beat Toronto 98-91. Expect more low-scoring games to follow now that the Grizzlies are playing without leading scorer Ja Morant. The Grizz have not been anything close to “stout” at the defensive end (they allow the most points per possession in the league), but tonight they are facing the league’s second lowest scoring team (OKC averages only 99.0 PPG), so Under is going to be the call here. 

The Thunder’s paltry scoring average dips even further on the road, down to 95.2 PPG. But the one thing that they do well is holding teams to 43.9% shooting. They’ve even been a bit better defensively when on the road (42.5 FG% allowed), which is why the Under is 8-2 in Thunder away games this season. Last night, they held Houston under 30 points in each of the first three quarters before imploding in the fourth. I don’t see that happening again. Considering you’ve got the second-lowest scoring team in the league against a Morant-less Grizzlies, I just don’t see many points being scored in this one. 10* Under Thunder/Grizzlies

10* Torino (12:30 ET): This is a battle of mid-table sides, so most will make the mistake of assuming neither Empoli nor Torino has much of an edge heading into Thursday’s fixture. For the record, Empoli (in 11th place) has 19 points to 13th place Torino’s 17. Both have seven losses this season, but Empoli has one more win, leading to the two-point edge. However, I feel that Torino is DEFINITELY the better side. In terms of expected points (xPts), which is the number of points a side is expected to have won based on expected goals data, Torino is far ahead. Empoli actually has the third lowest number of xPts in Serie A! 

So how has Empoli, a newly promoted side for this season, overperformed expectations so greatly? Tough to say. They are bottom six in both goals scored and goals allowed! It was definitely a fortunate win last week against Fiorentina as Empoli scored both of its goals in the final three minutes of normal time to steal a 2-1 victory. Had they not scored both goals, Empoli would be entering Thursday winless in its last three matches. They’d previously lost 2-1 to Hellas Verona and drawn 2-2 with Genoa. They’ve not kept a clean sheet in any of the last nine fixtures, a stretch which dates back to 9/22. 

With a better goal differential and higher number of xPts, you’d think Torino would be above Empoli in the table. But a string of bad luck (last seven losses have all come by one goal) has left them in the bottom half of the table … for now. I’m expecting a push into the upper half by season’s end. Playing this fixture at Olympic Grande Torino Stadium is a boon. Torino is 4-1-2 at home this season compared to just 1-1-5 on the road. Having barely avoided relegation last season, Torino should be desperate to move further away from the drop zone as we head into 2022. Again, my view is that they are simply the better side here. 10* Torino

8* Utah Valley State (9:00 ET): So BYU is 6-0 and ranked #12 in the country right now. But despite that record, which includes an impressive beatdown of Oregon (in Portland), I’m not convinced the Cougars are even one of the top 25 teams in America. Yes, they proved me wrong when they went to Salt Lake City on Saturday and beat rival Utah 75-64 as one-point favorites. But they are much bigger favorites tonight at Utah Valley State and covering this spread is going to be a lot more problematic for them. 

Utah Valley State is no slouch as they bring a 6-1 SU record into this contest. Their lone loss came in the season opener, by 20 at Boise State. Since then, it’s been six straight wins, all of which have seen the Wolverines score 74 or more points. They are averaging 79.5 PPG here at home. So unless it’s some kind of unforeseen poor effort at the defensive end of the floor tonight, I see the Wolverines covering this spread pretty easily. My own power ratings say this spread should be single digits.

Coming off a win over Utah, this has the makings of a “letdown” game for BYU. Meanwhile, Utah Valley State should be incredibly fired up to be facing a “bigger” in-state foe. (The respective campuses are just five miles apart). Utah Valley already has pulled a couple upsets, one over Long Beach State and another against CBI Champion Pepperdine. An outright win here would be quite the achievement. I can’t say it’s going to happen, but the underdog will cover the generous number. 8* Utah Valley State

10* Over Rockets/Thunder (8:05 ET): You’ve got two bad teams here, meeting for the second time in three days and the fourth time this year. None of the previous three encounters have been particularly close. The home team has won all three times. It was the Rockets prevailing 102-89 on Monday, just 12 days after losing 101-89 in Oklahoma City. The teams also met in the second game of the season and that was the biggest blowout of all with the Rockets winning 124-91. In addition to every game being a blowout, all three previous meetings also stayed Under the total. In that regard, I look for a different story tonight. 

Houston has not won a road game all season. They are 0-11 SU away from home, though they have covered the number five times. But they enter Wednesday’s game not just off a win over OKC, but on a three-game SU win streak. Now that was preceded by a 15-game losing skid, so you shouldn’t get too excited. The 89 points they allowed to the Thunder on Monday was a season-low. But on the road, the Rockets are giving up 113.0 PPG. Don’t forget that two games ago, they were involved in a wild 146-143 final with Charlotte. Yes, the game went to OT. But there were still 270 combined points scored in regulation. On the road, don’t expect the same defensive effort we saw Monday. 

OKC has lost six in a row, though they had covered the spread in each of the five losses prior to going down in Houston 48 hours ago. The Thunder are obviously not a great team offensively, but you have to expect them to shoot better than the 35.6% we saw on Monday night. That game saw them go 7 for 43 (!) from three-point range, an absolutely abysmal number that will be improved upon - likely by a lot - tonight. Each of the previous three Houston-OKC encounters have seen both sides put up a ton of 3PA. I look for BOTH teams to shoot the ball better here than they did Monday (Houston was only at 41.7%). 10* Over Rockets/Thunder

10* Over S Illinois/Evansville (7:00 ET): We’re gonna try with the Over here on a Southern Illinois team that has seen the Under hit in all six of its games this season. The reason being this is a new “low watermark” for an SIU O/U. The previous low was 125.0. Now that game saw them score only 47 points against Northeastern, but I have to imagine the Salukis are going to shoot better than 29.6%, which is what they did vs. Northeastern. Most of the O/U lines for SIU games this season have been north of 130.0. I see some value here. 

Similarly, Evansville has had just one O/U line lower than tonight. They went Over (119.5) in that game, which ended up being a 69-60 loss to Akron. The Purple Aces followed that up by defeating Eastern Illinois on Sunday, 70-54 as 6.5-point road favorites. Five of their last six games would have gone Over tonight’s total, the exception being a game vs. Vermont when they shot just 32.7%. Let the record show that Evansville is 5-1 to the Over the L6 times they’ve been a home dog, a role they are in tonight. 

The last time these MVC teams played was December 28th of last year and that ended up being a very high scoring game, 84-72, with Evansville (+8) getting the surprise win in Carbondale. They shot 55.3% from the floor, including 17 of 29 from three-point range. While I don’t think the Purple Aces are going to shoot the ball that well again here, look for them to make enough shots that this game does go Over the total, which will be a first for SIU this year. Evansville is shooting the ball much better at home so far. 10* Over Southern Illinois/Evansville

10* Sacramento (10:05 ET): With the Western Conference being SO depth-shy this season, it feels like the perfect time for the Kings to end their mind-numbing 15-year playoff drought. But entering tonight, they are in 11th place, five games below .500 and two games back of where they’d need to be just to make the play-in round. The good news is that the season is still young. But if they wish to make the playoffs for the first time since 2007, they can’t afford to fall too far behind. They’ve already fired Luke Walton, which tells me there’s a real sense of desperation in Sacramento right now. 

The same sense of desperation doesn’t exist down in LA, but it probably should for a Lakers team that is just 11-11 SU and being outscored on a per game and per play basis. Now being without LeBron James for several games has played a role in that, but with James in the lineup the Lakers lost to the Kings 141-137 in triple overtime last week. They bounced back by beating the lowly Pistons on Sunday, but by just four points and again that was with LeBron in the lineup. 

 Most are going to want to lay this short number with the Lakers as they are playing with revenge. But it’s been nearly three weeks since the Lakers posted B2B victories and both of those were by only three points. In fact, five of the Lakers seven wins this month have been by five points or less and none have been by more than eight! They are just 4-12 ATS as favorites this season and I think the Kings, motivated by an early-season coaching change, are capable of beating the Lakers for a second time in less than a week. Take the points. 10* Sacramento

8* Pepperdine (10:00 ET): It is my view that Nevada should not be laying double digits here. While Pepperdine (losers of four in a row) is definitely struggling right now, the favored Wolf Pack are just 3-4 SU themselves and highly unlikely to replicate the efforts we saw from them in the L2 games, wins over George Mason and Washington in the Crossover Classic at Sioux Falls, SD. It’s been a long journey back to Reno (last 5 games all away from home) and the last time the Wolf Pack played here, they lost outright to another WCC team (San Diego) 75-68 as 13.5-point chalk. Take the points here.

Plus, while Pepperdine has been losing, most of the games have been close. The last three games were all decided by single digits, including a 59-56 game against Grand Canyon (who I just won with last night) on Saturday. The Waves never trailed by more than six in that one and were ahead with less than two minutes to go. Prior to that, they gave Fresno State and TCU tough games at the SoCal Challenge. 

Nevada is actually 0-2 against the WCC this season. Not only did they lose that home game to San Diego that I already mentioned, but they also gave up 96 points in a horrible loss at Santa Clara. They’ve also been torched for 102 points by South Dakota State! This is a bad team defensively, so Pepperdine is basically a lock to shoot better here than they did against Grand Canyon (35.1%) in the last game. The Waves are a (slightly) better three-point shooting team than Nevada and they are 6-1 ATS when on a three-game losing streak the L3 seasons. 8* Pepperdine

10* Long Beach State (10:00 ET): While I do not expect The Beach to win this game, it’s a generous number that they are taking from San Diego State and this should end up being closer than what the oddsmakers think. Just last Wednesday, LBSU did pull an outright upset, beating Wright State 85-76 as 10-point underdogs to earn their only win in the Naples Invitational. Coming off a humbling 80-43 loss to Murray State, it was somewhat of a shocking effort from LBSU, who basically led from start to finish. 

San Diego State is 4-2 SU on the year, but does not have a win by greater than 17 points and they just lost 58-43 to USC on Friday. That loss, which took place in Anaheim as part of the Wooden Classic, saw the Aztecs have a dreadful shooting effort as they made only 32.1% of their total field goal attempts and were 3 of 17 from three-point range. At halftime, they had just 15 points, their lowest scoring 1H since a game vs. Air Force back in January of 2019. Now I’m not going to make the case that The Beach can play defense like USC does. The Trojans are a Top 25 team. But take note that SDSU also barely survived games against inferior sides Arizona State and UT Arlington, winning those by a combined eight points. 

The key to this game will be LBSU speeding up the tempo. They play at one of the quickest paces in the country, averaging 76 possessions per game. Junior Joel Murray leads The Beach in scoring and has averaged 16.6 points over the L5 games. Three seniors have combined to average 43% of the team’s points this year. San Diego State, who plays at a very slow pace, has seen its leading scorer (Matt Bradley) go just 3 for 14 from three-point range in the L3 games. Take the points. 10* Long Beach State

10* Crystal Palace (3:15 ET): So for this particular bet to cash, all we need is our side to play to a draw. I like our odds, especially since I am expecting Crystal Palace to defeat Leeds United on Tuesday. CP just saw their seven-match unbeaten run come to an end Saturday with a disappointing 2-1 loss to Aston Villa. But the Eagles still sit in 11th place with 16 points on the year and only the top four teams in the table have suffered fewer defeats this campaign than CP’s three. While they only have three wins, their league-leading seven draws are something that should give confidence provided the nature of this bet.

After earning promotion back into the EPL at the end of the 2019-20 season, Leeds had a strong return to this level of football, finishing ninth in 2020-21. But this season has seen them seemingly fall prey to the old “second season jinx” as the Whites currently sit 17th in the table and dangerously close to the drop zone, only three points clear. They enter Tuesday in especially poor form, having won just one of their last six EPL fixtures. That win came at the expense of dreadful Norwich City last month. In fact, both of Leeds’ wins this season have come against newly promoted sides.

While Leeds did earn a 0-0 draw with Brighton over the weekend, they were quite lucky to do so after being outshot 2:1 and seeing Brighton hit the woodwork twice in the first half. It was actually the first clean sheet of the season for Leeds and now they must face a CP side that has scored two or more goals in four of its last five away matches, a run that includes fixtures with the likes of Arsenal, Man City and West Ham. Other than the top four, no Premier League side is looking all that impressive this season. A win here would get Palace into sixth place on GD and I simply don’t see them doing any worse than a draw. 10* Crystal Palace

8* Hellas Verona (2:45 ET): Verona had a five-match unbeaten run come to an end over the weekend as they fell 3-1 to Sampdoria. That was certainly a surprise and not just because the opponent came in sitting close to the drop zone. Verona struck first with an Adrian Tameze goal in the 37th minute and controlled possession for nearly 60% of the match. It’s an outcome you would have expected to go their way and I think conceding three times was more “unlucky” than anything else. Tuesday’s fixture should offer Verona an excellent chance to bounce back though and get back into the win column.

Cagliari is in the midst of a terrible season as they have only one win and currently sit 19th in the table, firmly in the relegation zone. Ironically, that lone win came at the expense of Sampdoria (the side that just beat Verona). That came after a seven-match winless run to start the campaign and sure enough Cagliari enters Tuesday on a six-match winless run. They’re coming off back to back draws, including a VERY disappointing 1-1 result with bottom of the table side Salernitana on Friday. That match saw Cagliari give up the equalizer in the final minute of normal time, costing them a critical two points. 

I think that disappointing draw is going to be tough for Cagliari to get over. As you’d expect, this side’s season-long form on the road has been poor. In fact, no Serie A side has been worse on their travels. Cagliari has no away wins, dropping four of six overall. They also have the lowest number of xPts away. Verona, who is unbeaten at home this year with five wins and two draws, has scored a league-high 18 goals on home soil. A win here would move them into sixth place, albeit just for the time being, ahead of Fiorentina and Juventus (who they beat not that long ago). Verona gets the three points here. 8* Hellas Verona

8* Grand Canyon (10:00 ET): The Antelopes of Grand Canyon University face their second West Coast Conference opponent in three days here. Back on Saturday, they edged Pepperdine 59-56 but did not cover the number as 3.5 point favorites. This time GCU is an underdog as it heads to Loyola Marymount. It will be the first time this season that GCU is an underdog. They have a 5-1 SU record with the lone loss coming by seven (at home) to Wyoming. I think they’re the better team here, so take the points. 

Loyola Marymount is 4-2 SU. They lost the opener 75-64 (as seven-point favorites) to UT Chattanooga. The other loss was less surprising, as it came against Florida State, but it was a humbling defeat as the Lions went down 73-45 as 6.5-point dogs. Since that loss to FSU, LMU has defeated SMU (as a 3.5-point dog) and Prairie View A&M. The game vs. PV A&M was closer than expected (as in decided by three points) as LMU came in as 13.5-point chalk for that game. So they are just 1-2 ATS as favorites thus far and have just one win by greater than seven points.

Loyola Marymount actually trailed Prairie View A&M, a winless team, at the half on Saturday. They were very fortunate to get to the charity stripe 36 times as they converted 32 of those FT attempts. Without that, they probably would have lost the game. That Grand Canyon was able to win its last game, despite going 5 of 19 from three-point range, is a positive sign as I anticipate they’ll shoot a lot better tonight. When the Antelopes faced PV A&M earlier in the season, they won by 27. GCU has also held four of its six opponents below 60 points. 8* Grand Canyon

8* Illinois (9:00 ET): It might seem like an ideal time to fade the Fighting Illini, as they are coming off a very narrow win over UT Rio Grande Valley and have multiple players either injured or sick. But they still have Kofi Cockburn, who carried them against UTRGV with a career-high 38 points. Sometimes all you need is that one great player and Cockburn is definitely one of the best in the entire country this season. Despite their uneven start to the year, I think the Illini are going to take care of business here vs. Notre Dame in the opening day of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. 

Notre Dame just played in the Maui Invitational, which was held in Las Vegas this year. The Fighting Irish lost two of their three games in the desert, the one win coming against D-II Chaminade. They are now 0-4 ATS on the season as the final game of the tournament saw them blow a 10-point halftime lead against Texas A&M and lose 73-67 as 3.5-point favorites. That was a tough stretch of three games in three days for the Irish and while they’ve had the last four days off, I don’t think they’re ready for their first Top 25 opponent of the young season. 

Illinois is 0-4 ATS its last four games, including two outright losses, but I like the short number here in what is a favorable matchup. Cockburn and teammate Alfonso Plummer both went for 30+ against UTRGV, marking the first time since 1990 Illinois had two players go for 30+ in the same game. Notre Dame doesn’t defend well as opponents are making 42.7% from three-point range against them. And with Cockburn, the Illini should also be able to dominate down low. Lay the points. 8* Illinois

10* Over Seattle/Washington (8:15 ET): Since Russell Wilson returned to the lineup, the Seahawks have gone 0-2 SU and scored just 13 points. That point total is a little misleading though as Wilson threw TWO interceptions in the end zone against Green Bay. With the season very much on the brink heading into tonight, look for Wilson and the Seattle offense to “pick up the pace” against a Washington defense that has mostly struggled in 2021. Through the first four games of the season, the Football Team had the worst third down defensive efficiency in league HISTORY! They are still giving up 26.7 PPG. 

Washington’s offense has gotten better though, specifically QB Taylor Heinicke, who will be seeking to be the first QB to throw 3+ TD passes in B2B games for the franchise since Kirk Cousins did it back in 2016. The Football Team is coming off back to back upset wins, the first a real shocker as they were 10-point dogs and beat the Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers 29-19. Last week, they went to Carolina and won 27-21. Seattle’s defense was very poor at the start of the season. While it’s gotten somewhat better over the last month or so, it is still giving up over 400 YPG for the year. 

So I’m looking for this game to go Over the total. Yes, Seattle games are 8-1-1 to the Under (8-2 for some) this season, but I really do think this is the game where we start to see the “old Wilson.” As for Heinicke, he’s thrown for more than 245 yards in six of his nine games. The Over the L4 times that Washington has been off a SU win. 10* Over Seattle/Washington

8* Cleveland (8:20 ET): The Browns were 0-7 ATS in division games under HC Kevin Stefanski, but then they blew out Cincinnati, 41-16 (as 1-pt road dogs) three weeks ago. That was another game where the sharp money was seemingly on them, despite being off less than a stellar performance. Before beating the Bengals, the Browns had lost 15-10 to the Steelers. Here they are off a win, albeit an unimpressive one, 13-10 (as 13.5 point chalk) over the winless Lions. I think Cleveland will surprise you in this spot. 

Baltimore has been a pretty lucky team this season. They are 7-3 SU and lead the AFC North, but that’s thanks in no small part to a 5-1 SU record in one-score games. There have been four games decided by three points or less and the Ravens have won all them. The latest was last week, 16-13 over Chicago, where the Ravens were outgained 353-299. I know there was no Lamar Jackson in that game, but the Ravens very nearly lost. It was the FOURTH time this year they got the go-ahead score in the final minute. Twice this year they’ve come back from a double digit deficit to win in overtime.

Cleveland was leading 13-0 last week at the half. The offense did nothing in the second half as QB Baker Mayfield isn’t 100% and continues to struggle. But the only real mistake made by the Browns’ defense last week was giving up one long TD run. The Lions’ FG came after a 9-yard drive. Cleveland is healthy again at RB, which is the key to their offensive success. The Browns’ defense has allowed 16 points or less in six different games this season, including four of the last five. Baltimore is only 2-6 ATS as a favorite thus far. Take the points. 8* Cleveland 

10* LA Rams (4:25 ET): This line has certainly shifted during the week, but I think the line move is warranted. The game might be in Lambeau Field (where it will be cold), but the Rams have had two weeks to prepare for this game after heading into the bye on a two-game losing streak. Due to COVID and a toe injury, Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers has not been able to practice regularly the last three weeks. I believe the Rams are the better team here and think they’ll show it on Sunday. 

I faded Green Bay last week. Despite them playing nearly flawlessly, I came away with a winning ticket as the Vikings pulled a 34-31 upset, thanks to a GW field goal as time expired. That snapped what had been a record-setting 9-game ATS win streak for the Packers. My view is they are still due to “give some back.” I say this based on the fact they only have a +33 point differential, despite their 8-3 SU record. I just don’t think the Pack are as good as their record would seem to indicate.

This is also a big-time revenge game for the Rams, who are 0-7 ATS the L7 meetings with the Packers, including a playoff loss last January. Green Bay has won six of those previous seven meetings outright. But the Rams are not only rested this time, but have also upgraded their roster with the additions of Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr.  Green Bay is dealing with some injuries along the offensive line and could struggle to protect Rodgers in this matchup. Having not had their bye yet (comes next week), the Packers could be somewhat gassed, especially compared to a rested opponent. 10* LA Rams

9* Denver (4:05 ET): It seems as if every Chargers’ game ends up close these days. Five of the last six have been decided by seven points or less and they’ve won three of those. The Chargers’ history in closely-contested affairs is not good, so it’s a bit of a surprise to see them 5-3 in one-score games this year. Despite being 6-4 SU overall, the Chargers have a -5 point differential. I know that last week’s 41-37 win over Pittsburgh should NOT have ended up so close, but still I think it’s dicey to trust Brandon Staley’s team laying points on the division road. 

Despite being a game behind LA in the AFC West standings, Denver actually has a better YTD point differential (+17). Considering that and that they both at home and off a bye, the Broncos should be favored here. After not being favored in a single game last season (only team in the league that could say that), Denver was actually favored in its first six games of 2021. They’ve only been an underdog in two games this season. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 0-3 ATS their last three games as a favorite. The Broncos are also 9-2 ATS off a bye, including 2-0 under HC Vic Fangio.

The home team already had a decided edge defensively. They allow only 18.3 PPG. The Chargers allow 26.5 PPG and rank 32nd (i.e. last) against the run. Now Bradley Chubb has been activated and is expected to play Sunday. That should bolster Denver’s pass rush and keep the pressure on Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert.  Also, as we saw again last week vs. Pittsburgh - when they had a punt blocked - LA’s special teams continue to be a major liability. Take the points. 9* Denver

8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): The Titans are off a shocking loss where they outgained the Texans 420-190. But they were also -5 in turnover differential and that’s the primary reason they lost 22-13 as 10-point favorites. That and they are a banged up football team right now. But Tennessee still has the best WL record in the AFC right now (8-3 SU) and I think they can stay within the number this week, despite playing the new hottest team in the NFL. The Titans are a perfect 5-0 ATS as an underdog this season, also winning outright all five times! Not saying they’ll win outright again here, but take the points.

The Patriots seem to be the new “toast of the town” right now as they’ve won five in a row, four of those victories coming by 18 or more points. Bill Belichick’s team entered Thanksgiving with the top point differential in the league at +123. (Have since been passed in the department by Buffalo). The league’s top scoring defense (16.1 PPG allowed) has been key, but so has being +9 in turnover differential during the win streak. The Pats have also covered five in a row, so between that and the Titans’ record as a dog, something will have to give Sunday. My thinking is the Pats are EXTREMELY popular right now and it’s probably a good time to fade. This line has really risen during the week.

New England is off the “mini-bye,” after playing last Thursday. They shut the Falcons out 25-0 last time we saw them. But if you think the extended rest is a good thing for the Patriots, then think again as they are 0-6 ATS the L6 times they’ve been off extra rest. Tennessee isn’t just perfect as a dog, they are also 4-1 ATS on the road. HC Mike Vrabel is 2-0 SU/ATS vs. Belichick, whom he previously served under. I think the Titans’ loss last week was HIGHLY misleading (given the total yardage discrepancy) while at the same time wanting to “sell high” on the Pats. 8* Tennessee

6* Atletico Madrid (12:30 ET): This should be a really easy three points for the reigning La Liga Champions. Currently fourth in the table this season, Atletico returns to domestic action on the heels of a very disappointing loss in the Champions League (1-0 to AC Milan) midweek. They are on a six-match unbeaten streak here in La Liga and while three of those have been draws, defeating struggling Cadiz should not be difficult on Sunday. There is a massive gap in talent between these two sides.

Cadiz was promoted to the Spanish top flight last season and finished a surprising 12th in the table. However, they were actually second lowest on xPts, so they were quite fortunate not to finish closer to the drop zone. Coming into 2021/22, I felt regression was inevitable for Los Piratas and that it would be a real fight to avoid relegation. Sure enough, they currently sit in 17th place and are just one point clear of safety. Cadiz has the second worst GD (-11) in all of La Liga.

After two fortunate draws (with Villarreal and Mallorca) and a shocking 1-0 win over Athletic Club, Cadiz was put to the sword last week in a horrible 4-0 loss to Getafe, a fellow bottom of the table side. That’s an ominous result before this step up in class against a side that scored four times on them in both of last season’s fixtures. Atleti is simply too much for this overmatched Cadiz side and should maintain its status in the top four with a win here. 6* Atletico Madrid

8* USC (10:30 ET): It’s been an ugly season at USC. Clay Helton was fired after a 42-28 loss to Stanford and since that time, there’s been little in the way of improvement. The Trojans are 0-5 ATS their last five games, losing four of them straight up. The lone win was against Arizona and last week may have been a new low as they were crushed 62-33 by rival UCLA here at the Coliseum. Looking back, can you believe this team was actually FAVORED against Utah? 

The fact the Trojans were home favorites against the Utes only underscores what a disappointing season this has been in Southern California. USC is in danger of its second losing season in three years. Before that, they had not had a losing year since 2000. But a strong finish, unlikely as it may seem, would get the Trojans to a bowl game. They have to win these last two games, mind you. Beating #13 BYU may seem unlikely, but I do see plenty of value on the home dog at this price. My power ratings have this line much closer to a pick ‘em. 

I do not think for a second that BYU is the 13th best team in the country. My power ratings don’t even have them in the Top 40. The Cougars are 4-0 SU against Pac 12 teams this season, but all four wins were by 10 points or less. They’ve been beating up on some weak teams down the stretch, like Idaho State and Georgia Southern the last two weeks. I just think USC is better than what it's shown on the field this season and in the final home game, I expect them to “show up.” They’ve got a good running game and that should keep them in this one. Take the points. 8* USC

10* Utah (9:30 ET): Two 5-0 teams meet in Salt Lake City tonight with Utah hosting rival BYU. Brigham Young is ranked (#18), but that’s basically based on one win - an admittedly impressive 81-49 thrashing of Oregon. But I told you to fade this team earlier in the week and sure enough they failed to cover the spread against Texas Southern. Here, the Cougars won’t enjoy the same kind of size advantage they had in their last game. I look for Utah to hand them their first loss of the year.

The Utes don’t have a marquee win like BYU does, but four of their five wins have been by double digits. In addition to having the home court advantage, the schedule sets up nicely for Utah, who has not played since Sunday when they beat Tulsa 72-58 in Daytona Beach. That was a game they controlled start to finish. 

This is BYU’s first “true” road game of the season. Utah is 23-7 SU its last 30 home games and is looking to avenge an 18-point loss in Provo from last season. These teams have a very similar statistical profile with Utah having slight edges in both PPG allowed and FG% defense. In the end, it boils down to the home court edge, more rest and revenge. 10* Utah

9* West Virginia (7:00 ET): I understand that Kansas has been more “competitive” of late, with a win over Texas and a three-point loss to TCU. But WVU must win here in order to become bowl eligible and I don’t see them taking it easy on the Jayhawks. The Mountaineers have won seven straight times in this particular “rivalry,” six of those coming by double digits. My power ratings have this spread north of three touchdowns, so I’ll gladly lay a hair over two. 

Kansas is still last in the Big 12 in scoring offense and defense. They are also last in total yards on both sides of the ball. So they’ve got a long way to go in terms of being competitive on a regular basis, even if 1st year HC Lance Leipold has them trending in a positive direction. Before the last two weeks, the Jayhawks had lost eight straight double digit games, all but one coming by 19 points or greater. They’ve been outscored on average by 22.8 PPG this season and that number grows to 26.0 PPG in conference action. 

West Virginia showed last week that it was still interested in making it to a bowl. They beat Texas 31-23 in the Morgantown finale and had 459 yards of total offense. QB Doege leads the Big 12 in passing yards and should have a field day here against a KU defense that has surrendered 52 or more points four different times in 2021. The Mountaineers’ defense may not have to worry about facing Jayhawks RB Devin Neal, who injured his ankle LW vs. TCU. Lay the points. 9* West Virginia

10* Louisiana (4:00 ET): I realize that Louisiana has the Sun Belt Championship Game (vs. Appalachian State) on deck next week, but I’m not concerned with the “lookahead factor” here at all. The Ragin Cajuns are a vastly superior side compared to rival LA Monroe and this spread is about a touchdown too low. LA Monroe might not be the worst team in the Sun Belt, but they are close. The Warhawks have been underdogs of 23.5 points or more six times in 2021. Why not here? 

Now it may have something to do with an incredible trend in this rivalry, known as the “Battle of the Bayou.” Over the last 22 years, the road team has gone 19-2-1 ATS! But let’s not forget who won last year. That would be Louisiana and it was by a score of 70-20. That was the 11th SU win by the Ragin Cajuns in the last 13 meetings. That trend that favors the road team is due to go “the other way,” sooner rather than later and 2021 feels like the right time for that to begin. 

Louisiana is on a 10-game win streak (only loss was to Texas in the season opener). Some of the wins have been close, but they just clobbered Liberty by 28 last week on the road. This Ragin Cajun team has won 15 straight over SBC West foes under HC Billy Napier and is looking for its first perfect conference record as a Sun Belt member. So they are going to come out motivated on Saturday. They want the highest ranking possible for bowl purposes. This spread should be four touchdowns, not three. 10* Louisiana

8* Auburn (3:30 ET): I understand that QB Bo Nix is out for the season and that the Tigers have lost three straight. But this is too high of a line for the Iron Bowl, a rivalry game that has seen the home team win eight of the last nine meetings, including five straight. Going back further, the home team is on a 13-4 ATS run in Iron Bowls. Alabama has lost its last two trips to Jordan-Hare, 26-14 as a five-point favorite and 48-45 as a three-point favorite. As per usual, Auburn will treat the Iron Bowl as their “Super Bowl” and I don’t see them being blown out. Bama will win, but take the points. 

Alabama obviously can’t lose here, but their focus is more likely to be on next week’s SEC Championship Game vs. #1 Georgia. If the Crimson Tide win these next two games, then they’re back in the CFP. My view is there’s no fear of actually losing to Auburn, so this is a classic “trap” spot. The Tide have been by no means “rolling” their last two SEC games, both of which were decided by seven points or less. They beat LSU by six and Arkansas by seven. The defense allowed almost 500 total yards last week. 

Nix’s replacement is TJ Finley, a transfer from NC State. While he wasn’t all that great the last three quarters against South Carolina last week, that was a road game. Early on, he led two touchdown drives in that game. Finley would be well-served to hand the ball off to RB Tank Bigsby, who has five 100+ yard games this season. My power ratings say this number should be closer to +12, so expect Auburn to surprise the linesmakers a bit in this one as Alabama looks ahead to next week’s SEC Championship. 8* Auburn  

9* Over Texas St/Arkansas St (2:00 ET): Neither of these two teams are going to a bowl. Texas State is 3-8 SU after losing five of six. The Bobcats’ lone win during that stretch was 27-19 over LA Monroe. I do not expect them to deliver a solid effort on the defensive side of the ball Saturday. Outside of San Marcos, Texas State is giving up 36.8 PPG. Of course, that’s not very far off from what they allow overall (34.0 PPG). Three of the last four opponents have gone for 35 or more points.

Arkansas State is 2-9 SU and their only win in the last seven games was against LA Monroe, 27-24 as a three-point road dog. The last six Red Wolves games have all stayed Under the total. But it’s important to note that all six O/U lines were higher than this one. ASU has an even worse defense than Texas State, one that gives up a shocking 40.8 PPG at home. They allow 39.9 PPG overall. There have been four different games this year where the Red Wolves allowed at least 50 points. 

When these teams played last year, it was a wild 47-45 Texas State win in San Marcos as a four-point home dog. Arkansas State is a much more prolific offensive team in Jonesboro this season, averaging over 30 PPG here at home. Texas State allowed five TD passes and almost 500 yards total to Coastal Carolina last week. The last 10 times Arkansas State has been favored, the Over is 7-3. 9* Over Texas St/Arkansas St

8* Cincinnati (2:00 ET): Cincinnati returns home after playing two tough opponents in the Hall of Fame Classic at Kansas City. One of the games went well as the Bearcats upset #14 Illinois, rallying back from a 15-point deficit to win by 20 (as 9.5-point underdogs). But the next day saw them “run out of gas” in a 73-67 loss (as 5-point underdogs) to #13 Arkansas. The Bearcats are hosting Monmouth on Saturday, an opponent they should blowout. Cincy has won its first four home games by an average of 21 points. 

Monmouth is 5-0 ATS with its only SU loss coming by two in the opener against Charlotte. Since that opening loss, the Hawks have beaten Towson, Lehigh, St. Joe’s and Princeton. So this will be a big step up in class and the first of six consecutive road games over the next 2+ weeks. The Hawks should be no stranger to the road at this point; three of their first five games were played away from home. But this one will be - by far - the toughest. Monmouth lost roughly half of its offensive production from last season. 

I know that there’s the risk of this being a “flat spot” for the favorite, who is coming off B2B games against Top 15 opponents. But being off a loss, their first of the 2021-22 season, should have Cincinnati properly motivated in this one. The Bearcats are playing outstanding defense thus far, holding teams to just 33.9% shooting overall and 24% from three-point range. Monmouth isn’t going to cover every game and this feels like the spot where their ATS win streak comes to crashing halt. 8* Cincinnati

8* Florida (12:00 ET): This used to be one of the premier matchups of every College Football season. But that was 20 years ago. Now Florida State and Florida are both 5-6 SU and fighting for the right JUST TO GO to a bowl. Florida just fired Dan Mullen, meaning an interim (Greg Knox) will be coaching. Only the winner here gets to go to a bowl. While many are being quick to write off the Gators, Florida State just isn’t very good and given the series history, the home team should be laying more points here. 

The Gators were 2-0 vs. Florida State under Mullen. The schools did not meet last year because of COVID-19, which was probably just fine as far as the Seminoles were concerned. Not only were they 3-6 SU last year, but the ‘Noles had previously lost to the Gators 40-17 in 2019 and 41-14 in 2018. The side that has been favored has won the last five Sunshine Showdowns and covered 16 of the last 20. Florida is 4-1 SU in Gainesville this year and the last two games here, they’ve put up a total of 112 points. 

The Gators are just 1-4 SU their L5 games (0-5 ATS) but that’s with two close losses on the road (LSU, Missouri). Florida State has been trending the opposite way, winning five of its last seven. But it’s hard for me to believe the Seminoles are capable of pulling a third straight outright upset. The L2 weeks have seen them beat Miami and Boston College, both by only three points. The Noles’ actually have a trio of three-point wins this season. Homefield advantage is the difference in this one. 8* Florida

8* Portland (10:05 ET): Going to take a chance with the Blazers here as they are catching a decent number. Now it’s against Golden State, who is 16-2 SU and looking like the best team in the league. It’s also a road game for Portland, and they’ve struggled in those, going 1-8 both straight up and against the spread. But prior to losing by just four points in Sacramento, this team had won four in a row, albeit all at home. I think taking the points is the right move here as Portland is one of the few teams capable of matching the Warriors at the offensive end. (Blazers are #4 in offensive efficiency). 

Golden State’s two losses this year have been by a total of seven points and one of them was in overtime. So, yeah, I’d say it’s been a really impressive start. They have - by far and away - the league’s top point differential as they are beating opponents by an average of 13.5 PPG. They’ve won five straight, four of those coming by double digits. But this figures to be their toughest test since facing Brooklyn. It comes after a holiday and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Dubs come out a bit “sluggish” in this one. They were down 19 in the 2Q Wednesday against Philadelphia, who was short-handed and playing its sixth straight road game. 

If they are to get an advantage, I don’t think the Blazers will let the Warriors “off the hook” the same way the Sixers did. I know it’s been a struggle on the road. Portland’s lone win away from home so far was against Houston. But the team played well in Sacramento. Damian Lillard had 32 points and 10 assists while Jusuf Nurkic contributed a season-high 28 points and 17 rebounds. You know the underdog is going to come in highly motivated for this one and Golden State isn’t going to win every game. Portland has averaged 117.6 points in its L5 games, so they can easily stay within the number here. 8* Portland

10* Over Suns/Knicks (7:05 ET): If you thought the Suns were going to “regress” after LY’s surprising run to the NBA Finals, perhaps it’s time to reassess. Phoenix is the hottest team in the league right now, having won 14 in a row. They are 15-3 overall. The only team with a better record right now is Golden State, who is 16-2 SU. The Suns have won six in a row on the road, however the last two away games - a 115-111 win over San Antonio and 120-115 win over Cleveland - were both close against subpar opposition. That should give the Knicks some semblance of hope heading into tonight’s contest.

New York is off what it should consider a big win as they beat the Lakers 106-100 on Tuesday. Although LeBron James did not play for LA in that one, the Knicks will gladly take the win after they had lost four of their previous six games. But what I’m choosing to focus on here is the fact the last eight Knicks games have all stayed Under the total. That’s quite the streak. But it can’t last forever and I’d be really surprised if we don’t start to see Knicks’ games get a bit higher scoring. The L5 have seen them average only 101.0 PPG. That’s down from 107.2 for the season. They are allowing just 99.2 points the L5 games, down from 106.4 for the season. 

Phoenix can definitely score. They come in averaging 112.3 points per game (tied for #2 in the league) and their L4 games have all gone Over the total. The Suns have shot better than 50% in each of those last four games. So they really are the ideal opponent for this Knicks’ Under streak to come to an end. Both times these teams met last season, the end result was an Over. There were 228 and 233 total points scored in those two games.  The Over is 5-0 the previous five times the Knicks have been a home dog. 10* Over Suns/Knicks

10* Penn State (7:00 ET): LSU has shot up the power rankings, thanks to an impressive 5-0 SU/ATS start where they are outscoring the opposition by 34.4 points per game. To put things in perspective, that’s a wider average margin of victory than #1 Gonzaga. But the Tigers have also yet to play anybody from a “power conference.” They’ve faced LA Monroe, Texas State, Liberty, McNeese State and Belmont so far. Of those five teams, only Belmont would rank in the top 150 nationally. So don’t be surprised to see the Tigers tested on Friday. I look for this to be their first ATS loss of the young season. Take the points. 

Penn State is 3-1, but at the opposite end of the spectrum (from LSU) when it comes to the point spread as their ATS record is 0-4. Early in the season, the Nittany Lions suffered a rather shocking 81-56 defeat at the hands of UMass, which obviously has affected their own power rating. But since that loss (where they were four-point road favorites), PSU has won B2B games, beating both St. Francis NY and Cornell by double digits. Now those aren’t exactly the most impressive of opponents either, but the Nittany Lions did tie a program-record with 15 made three-pointers against Cornell on Monday. 

This game is being played in Florida as part of a Holiday Tournament. It’s the first time Penn State is an underdog this season. Obviously, I’m not shocked by that. But with the Nittany Lions at 0-4 ATS and LSU at 5-0 ATS, I believe we’re getting a solid value on the dog here. PSU has three double digit scorers, two of which (Lundy and Sessoms) combined to make 11 of those 15 threes in the last game. With LSU yet to play a “real opponent” and this also being their first game away from Baton Rouge, it will be interesting to see how they respond to what figures to be a close game. 10* Penn State

10* Colorado (4:00 ET): So #19 Utah is off its biggest win of the season, a 38-7 beatdown of Oregon that assured the Utes a place in next week’s Pac 12 Championship Game. There is a decent shot that game could be a rematch with the Ducks. But first comes this minor piece of business, the regular season finale where they are huge favorites over Colorado. The Buffaloes have nothing to play for here, but that didn’t stop them last week from upsetting Washington 20-17 as a 6.5-point dog. It would be foolish to expect a similar result here, but the Buffs should keep this one closer than the oddsmakers think. 

Last week was actually the second upset in three weeks by Colorado. Earlier, also in Boulder, they beat Oregon State 37-34 as an 11.5-point dog. That’s a pretty impressive win, quite frankly. Now the road has been less kind with CU yet to win a single time away from home this season. But catching Utah the week after its biggest win of the season is a favorable situation. The Buffaloes may have been outgained badly last week by Washington, but finding a way to win when you’re 2 of 13 on third down is pretty impressive. I expect the offense to be more efficient on third down here. 

This is just a classic letdown spot, plain and simple. I know Utah has been rolling, but my power ratings say this spread should be below three touchdowns. So there’s value with the road dog, particularly because they’ll at least be motivated to keep it close against a rival they’ve lost to four years in a row, the last three losses all coming by 17 points or greater. At the very worst, look for the “back door” to be open Friday night in Salt Lake City where the Utes can’t possibly match their intensity from last week. 10* Colorado 

7* Athletic Bilbao (3:00 ET): It’s been a bit of a frustrating stretch for Athletic Club (Bilbao) as they are winless in the last four La Liga matches, three of those being draws. But they are still eighth in the table mind you, with 19 points, leaving them seven behind the top four. Interestingly enough, the Lions are pretty close to those top teams in terms of xPts and no team has been unluckier in terms of actual vs. expected goals scored. Having conceded the fewest number of times in all of La Liga (only 8 goals allowed), Athletic probably SHOULD be higher in the table. I think Friday’s fixture offers them an excellent opportunity to grab the full three points and move up. 

Athletic has lost only once in its last seven times out on the pitch and just twice all season. Only the top four sides in the table, all of whom have lost just once, have suffered fewer defeats this season in La Liga. The issue for Athletic is that they are tied for the most draws in the league with 7. I had the Under in their most recent fixture, a goalless draw with Levante. There’s been just one time all season - a loss to Rayo Vallecano back on Sept 21 - that Athletic has conceded more than one goal. And that 2-1 loss saw them give up the game-winner in stoppage time. 

Again, the metrics say Athletic SHOULD be scoring more. I think they break through here against Granada, a side near the bottom of the table that actually ranks dead last in xPts. Being that Granada has one of the worst defensive records in La Liga (20 goals allowed), things really line up for Athletic to score multiple goals on Friday. If that happens, it’s an easy win, given their reputation for conceding so few goals. Granada is coming off a 4-1 loss to Real Madrid and a 2-0 loss to Espanyol before that and I think this is a team that will struggle to avoid relegation. 7* Athletic Bilbao

8* Nebraska (1:30 ET): What a trying season it’s been in Lincoln for Scott Frost’s Cornhuskers. Did you know - that despite a 1-7 SU conference record - Nebraska actually has a positive point differential in Big 10 games? How is that even possible, you ask? Well, on October 2nd, they beat Northwestern 56-7. The Cornhuskers’ seven losses in Big 10 play this year have been by a total of 42 points, none of them exceeding a nine-point margin. That is insane and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anything like it before. I think speaks volumes that Nebraska is favored here, even if it’s ever so slightly, against a team that at one point was ranked as high as #2 in the country.

Iowa has since slipped to 16th after suffering B2B bad losses to Purdue and Wisconsin last month. Those losses were by a combined 37 points, almost equal to the margin of Nebraska’s seven conference defeats. The Hawkeyes have since righted the ship with three straight wins, but two were by just five points (against N’western and Minnesota) and even last week Kirk Ferentz’s team was outgained (312-255) in a win over Illinois. The Hawkeyes were really lucky during their 6-0 SU start to the season as they forced a lot of turnovers. (Note they were -6 in TO’s in the two games they lost). 

Nebraska has not beaten Iowa since 2014 with the last three losses - predictably - all coming by six points or less. Frost has been absolutely “snake-bit” in close games during his tenure here with the Cornhuskers going 5-19 SU when the final score is decided by seven points or less. I think it’s time for him to win one. I know that the Cornhuskers have nothing to play for here (except pride!) and QB Martinez will miss the game. But Iowa’s offense is BAD and has been outgained in five consecutive games! Frost deserves this one. 8* Nebraska

8* Over Boise St/San Diego St (12:00 ET): Both of these teams are trying to nail down a spot in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. It is highly unlikely that they’ll see each other again in a rematch next week. Boise State is in a three-way tie for the Mountain Division lead and the other two teams (Air Force & Utah State) are decided favorites this week. A loss for San Diego State potentially drops them into a tie with Fresno State, who plays Thursday and holds the head to head tiebreaker. So unless Fresno State gets upset Thursday, both Boise & SDSU have a lot on the line Friday. 

Note the VERY early start time for this game. Kickoff will be at 9 AM PT. That was done for TV purposes. It will be interesting to see if the early kickoff has any adverse effect on the players. I think the two defenses may not be as sharp as they usually are. If so, look for this game to fly past the total. Boise State comes in averaging 30.4 PPG on the year. San Diego State averages 30.5 PPG at home. Something that I should point out here is just how lucky the Aztecs have been this season. They are 5-0 SU in one-score games. They may be rated #21 by CFP committee, but my power ratings have them MUCH lower. 

Boise State has gone Under in six straight games. That, and the fact they are playing San Diego State, is why this O/U line is so low. But remember what I said earlier about the two offenses. Boise has averaged 32 PPG during its current four-game win streak. But three of the four teams they beat up on aren’t very strong offensively. San Diego State put up 28 points last week in a win over UNLV. This is the lowest O/U line of the season for any Boise State game. Again, I think the respective defenses are “caught napping” after Thanksgiving and this turns into a surprisingly high-scoring game. 8* Over Boise St/San Diego St

10* Towson (9:30 ET): This game is part of the Las Vegas Invitational, which is a four-team tournament involving UAB, New Mexico, San Francisco and Towson. Not exactly the most compelling field, but we do have an undefeated San Francisco team that’s 6-0 SU. The Dons have been quite active thus far, but despite their perfect SU record, they are just 2-4 ATS with two wins coming by five points or less. This will be the first time they’ve left home this season and I’m going to take the points in what should be a challenging game for them. 

Towson comes in with a 3-2 SU record, but they are 4-1 ATS. Both SU losses were by single digits. One was to Monmouth, which was a surprise as the Tigers were 3.5 point home favorites for that game. The other was at Pittsburgh, a more impressive showing as they covered as six-point underdogs. After losing to Pitt 63-59, Towson quickly rebounded by shooting 51% in a 76-61 win over Penn two nights ago. That loss to Pitt is the only game where the Tigers didn’t top 70 points. 

These teams met last year on Thanksgiving Day with USF emerging victorious 79-68 at the Mohegan Sun in Connecticut. I’m looking for a closer battle this year. Both teams have done an exceptionally good job at defending the three-point line thus far. The thing is, I expect Towson to shoot better from distance in this game. That may sound strange considering they are just 27.5% from behind the arc through five games. But that percentage is bound to improve. They were just 4 of 17 vs. Penn (on 3PA) and still scored 76 points. 10* Towson

8* New Orleans (8:20 ET): For the first time since 2016, the Saints have lost three in a row. Now if you are a regular client of mine, that shouldn’t surprise you. I said to fade New Orleans last week and that turned out to be a good bet as they lost 40-29 to the Eagles. Really, things weren’t even as close as that final score makes it seem. The Saints fell behind 33-7 after three quarters and were clearly outclassed from the get-go. But I should mention how turnovers played a key role in that outcome. The Saints had three of them, one of which was an INT that was returned for a TD. They actually outgained the Eagles, slightly, on a per play basis for the game. The key for Philly was having three scoring drives (besides the pick-six) begin in Saints’ territory. What I’m saying is - don’t write off New Orleans just yet. 

Especially not here at home. Last week marked the first time in five games this season that they did NOT cover as an underdog. They’d won three of the previous four outright. Of course, last week’s game was on the road. I remind you of that because the Saints are 8-2 ATS their L10 games as a home underdog. They are also the only team in the league to alternate ATS wins and losses all season. If that trend holds here, that means they’ll cover the spread. Going back to last season, New Orleans is 6-0 ATS off its previous six ATS losses. 

Buffalo is just 1-3-1 ATS its last five games, including an embarrassing outright loss to Jacksonville a few weeks ago. As embarrassing as that defeat to the Jags was, last week’s 41-15 thrashing at the hands of the Colts may have been their nadir. While the Bills still are near the top of my power ratings, I think they’re laying too many points in this Thanksgiving night matchup. The spread should be under a FG, so I think there’s value here on the home dog, who has seen three of its five losses come by six points or fewer. 8* New Orleans

10* Under Bills/Saints (8:20 ET): Both the Bills and Saints come into Thanksgiving off blowout losses. In fact, the Saints have lost three straight games (first time since 2016). Two of those losses were close, but last week’s wasn’t as they fell 40-29 to the Eagles. But that was a bit of a misleading final as Philly had three scoring drives start in Saints’ territory + a pick six. Also, New Orleans had two TD drives start inside the Eagles’ 40-yard line. So the fourth straight Saints game to Over the total was pretty misleading all-around.

The Bills’ 41-15 loss to the Colts was also a little misleading. Like the Saints, the Bills also had a slight edge in yards per play on Sunday. That sounds crazy considering the scores, but it is true. Buffalo was also done in by turnovers. They had four (and didn’t force any), which led to three Indianapolis touchdown drives, two of which started deep in Buffalo territory. As for the Bills offense, there were two missed field goals, but it was also the second time in three weeks that they scored 15 points or less. That’s not good.

These two defenses surrendering 40+ points is quite uncharacteristic. In fact, the number of points allowed last week were season-worsts for both teams. The Bills defense still has given up the fewest number of total yards in the league and also ranks second in scoring (17.6 PPG allowed). Most of New Orleans’ points last week came in the fourth quarter during “garbage time” and it’s looking unlikely that they will have RB Alvin Kamara for this game. Trevor Siemian has proven to be a below-average QB. As for the Saints’ defense, the number of rush yards it allowed last week was highly uncharacteristic (though it was the second year in a row that the Eagles shredded them on the ground). Entering that game, New Orleans was #1 in the league at stopping the run. The Under has hit each of the last six years in the primetime Thanksgiving window. Make it seven in a row. 10* Under Bills/Saints

8* North Texas (2:30 ET): 4th ranked Kansas should be considered the favorite here in the ESPN Invitational, which takes place in Kissimmee, FL. The only other ranked team in the field is #10 Alabama. But don’t be surprised if the Jayhawks struggle a bit in this first round matchup with stingy North Texas. The Jayhawks have not played in a week, so there may be some rust. There are also changes to the rotation with Jalen Wilson set to return from a suspension and two players injured. Bottom line: I’m taking the points in this Thanksgiving Day matchup. 

North Texas is actually 7th in the country in points allowed (52.7 per game). The Mean Green really whipped TX-Arlington in its last game, winning 64-36. It was 26-3 out of the gate and they allowed just 12 points in the first half. Now, an earlier loss to Buffalo and B2B games with 35% shooting is a bit of concern when facing Kansas. But I expect the Mean Green to shoot a little bit better in this one. This is a team that’s gone 6-1 ATS its L7 neutral site games. 

But it’ll be the North Texas defense that’s the key to this one. I don’t see Kansas scoring 87 points here as they have in each of their first three games. While the margins of victory continue to grow for Bill Self’s team and they are off a 29-point win over Stony Brook, the Jayhawks are just 5-14 ATS their L19 games coming off a SU win by 20 or more points. They were actually trailing Stony Brook with seven minutes to go in the first half. This is Kansas’ toughest opponent since the opener. 8* North Texas

10* Texas Southern (9:00 ET): BYU is ranked #18, basically on the strength of one win - a shocking 81-49 demolition of then-#12 Oregon. Now that’s an impressive win (especially considering it came in Portland). But the Ducks were overrated going into that game according to my power ratings. Now BYU is too. The Cougars are not #18 in my power ratings, nor are they even in the Top 25. In fact, they barely crack the Top 35. With them laying a big number Wednesday night, it seems like an opportune time to fade.

Texas Southern is the opponent. While winless at 0-5 SU, the Tigers are 4-1 against the spread. All five games have been on the road, just like this one and next seven they’ll play! That is an insane start to the season. But so far the Tigers have been game. Four of the losses have been by single digits and they’ve played at multiple big-time schools, including NC State, Washington & St. Mary’s. Critics will point to a 17-point loss at Oregon just because BYU schooled the Ducks, but I think that’s unfair. 

TX Southern had to go to Eugene to face Oregon, rather than get them at the “neutral setting” of Portland. Remember that this is a team that was in the NCAA Tournament a year ago and won a “First Four” game. They led NC State at halftime on Sunday. This is a program on a 44-23 ATS run when facing teams with a winning record. BYU heads to Utah this weekend, so this very much has the makings of a “lookahead” spot for them. Prior to beating Oregon, the Cougars first two wins were both by 10 points or less. My number say this spread should be several points lower. 10* Texas Southern 

10* Atlanta (8:30 ET): Here’s a shocking stat for you: the Hawks are 0-9 ATS on the road. No other team in the NBA is either perfect or winless against the spread, at home or on the road. It’s just the Hawks. They are also 1-8 SU away from home, so things have not been going well - at all - on their travels. However, a recently completed five-game home stand saw Atlanta go 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS. The lone game they didn’t cover was Monday vs. OKC when they were 13-point favorites and won by only 12. 

I think it’s got to be time for the Hawks to snap this shocking ATS losing skid on the road. They’ll be visiting a San Antonio team that simply isn’t very good this year. I’ve got the Spurs rated 25th in my personal power ratings, probably the lowest they’ve ever been in the Greg Popovich era. Only three other teams from the West are rated lower - New Orleans, OKC & Houston. The Spurs have lost five straight, three of those coming by double digits. It was a game effort against red-hot Phoenix on Monday, but they still came up a few points short in that one. 

That Suns-Spurs game wasn’t even close entering the 4Q as SA was behind by 15. They shot just 5 of 20 from three-point range. Now the Spurs do score a lot more at home. But Atlanta is averaging 117.4 PPG during its current win streak while San Antonio has averaged only 101.6 PPG during its losing streak. These are two clubs going in opposite directions right now and I expect the Hawks to pick up their first ATS road win of 2021-22. Lay the points. 10* Atlanta

9* Orlando (7:05 ET): I am fully aware just how poorly the Magic played their last time out. It was a humbling 123-92 defeat at the hands of the Bucks and it was honestly even worse than that final score suggests. Orlando not only faced a franchise record 41-point deficit at halftime, but at one point trailed by as many as 51! How then could I possibly turn around and endorse them here? Well, the Magic won’t be facing the reigning NBA Champs tonight. Instead, they are hosting an overrated Charlotte side. 

The Hornets are 5th in the East with an 11-8 SU record, but still have a negative point differential on the season. They’ve gotten hot recently, winning six of seven while also going 6-1 ATS. But they were underdogs in virtually every one of the games. In fact, the one time they were favored, it was a single point. This game will mark just the fourth time all season that Charlotte has been favored and the first by more than five points. It must be noted that when they were five-point favorites vs. Cleveland earlier this month, the Hornets lost outright. 

Orlando is only 1-6 SU/ATS at the Amway Center thus far, but it’s been 10 days since they last played a home game. They are coming off a brutal road trip that saw them face the Hawks, Knicks, Nets and then the Bucks twice. I think that after suffering such an embarrassing defeat on Monday, the Magic are going to come out pretty motivated here. Charlotte not only has a losing road record, but they are 29th in the league in scoring defense. Take the points. 9* Orlando 

8* Atletico Madrid (3:00 ET): Liverpool has run away with Group B and thus will be moving onto the Round of 16. But there’s one more spot left in the knockout stage for the other three sides in the group. Reigning La Liga Champs Atletico Madrid can take a big step towards claiming it for themselves on Wednesday if they can once again defeat Serie A’s Inter Milan. Back in September, Atletico took the reverse at San Siro, 2-1, thanks to a stoppage time penalty from Luis Suarez. Here on home soil, I believe they are more than capable of winning again and probably in far less dramatic fashion.

As things stand now, Atletico is one point back of Porto for second place in Group B. But Atletico has the slightly better goal differential and - like I said earlier - can put themselves in an excellent position to advance past the group stage with a win here. Porto will be facing Liverpool in Anfield on this same matchday, so it’s very likely they won’t pick up any points and also see their GD worsen. If Porto loses and Atletico wins on Wednesday, then the La Liga champs would only need to play to a draw with Porto on the final group matchday. In addition to that motivation, I like the fact Atletico is coming off a win on the domestic front over the weekend (1-0 over Osasuna), a match where they firmly controlled possession.

At the same time, AC Milan happens to be coming off its first Serie A loss of the season as they went down 4-3 at the hands of Fiorentina this past weekend. The Rossoneri are still tied with Napoli (who also just suffered its first Serie A loss over the weekend) atop the table. But here in the Champions League, things have not gone as well. Milan has just taken just one point from its first four matches, that coming from a 1-1 draw with Porto earlier this month. They’ve still got one more fixture with Liverpool to come, so Milan’s chances of making it to the Round of 16 are looking very slim at this point. It’s been eight years since they last picked up an away Champions League win. 8* Atletico Madrid

8* UCLA (10:00 ET): Who could forget the game these teams played last April in Indianapolis? Jalen Suggs’ 37-foot buzzer beater in overtime gave Gonzaga a 93-90 victory and sent them to the National Championship Game against Baylor. Of course, things did not end well for the Zags. They lost to Baylor, ending what had been a perfect season to that point. Now UCLA gets its chance for revenge. The Bruins were not just an 11-seed in last season’s tournament, but also relegated to the “First Four.” Now they are ranked as the #2 team in the entire country. 

Gonzaga is #1, but is not as strong as the team that won its first 31 games last year. Suggs is gone as are two other starters from the 31-1 team. Mark Few has reloaded in Spokane, but this is a tricky early season matchup. I know that the Zags had no problem winning last night as they crushed Central Michigan 107-54 as 34-point favorites. That was their fifth straight double digit win to open the season and four of those have come by 27 or more points. The one exception was when Zags defeated Texas (who is currently #8 in the poll) by 12. Still, I think this is too many points to lay in such a high-profile encounter that’s taking place in a neutral setting (Las Vegas). 

As this is a tournament, UCLA also played yesterday. They defeated Bellarmine 75-62, but did not cover the 22.5-point spread. While that obviously wasn’t as impressive as the Zags’ win, the Bruins got to play their game earlier in the day, so they have had a few extra hours of rest compared to Gonzaga. All but one of UCLA’s wins this season (a 9-point win over Villanova) have been by double digits so far. As the revenge-minded squad, they come in more motivated and with them also having more returning experience from last season, I’ll gladly take the points. 8* UCLA

8* Western Michigan (7:00 ET): It speaks volumes that the last place team in the MAC West (Western Michigan) is favored here (on the road, no less!) against the team that has already sewn up the division title, that being Northern Illinois. Perhaps part of that is NIU potentially looking forward to next week’s MAC Championship Game against whomever wins the East Division (will be Miami or Kent State). But the reality of the matter is that the Huskies aren’t a very good team. Despite being division champs - and an 8-3 overall SU record - they have a -20 point differential for the season! 

Now part of that is due to the non-conference slate, which included a 63-10 loss to Michigan. But even still, the Huskies’ YTD point differential in MAC games is only +20. This despite having a 6-1 conference record! Not only do they have four wins by two points or less this season, including THREE one-point victories, but last week’s game vs. Buffalo was an OT affair. Northern Illinois’ largest win of the season over an FBS foe was eight points against lowly Bowling Green. They have arguably been the “luckiest” team in all of College Football in 2021. 

As for Western Michigan, they suffered a one-point LOSS to rival Eastern Michigan last week. That was yet another game where the Broncos came in as road favorites. I faded them, thinking the number was too high, which it clearly was. But the Broncos did end up with an edge in total yards (485-422) and were up 21-9 in the third quarter. This is a team that earlier in the year went to Pitt and won 44-41! Unlike Northern Illinois, WMU has a positive point differential this season. Though already bowl eligible, getting a 7th win would be huge for the Broncos as it would probably ensure they actually go to a bowl game (in the past, there have been some six-win MAC teams not selected by a bowl). Before the season, many thought WMU would win the MAC West and NIU (winless in 2020) would finish last! Lay the points. 8* Western Michigan

10* Chelsea (3:00 ET): The two Group H heavyweights collide for a second time, but now it’s at Stamford Bridge where reigning Champions League trophy holders Chelsea should have a clear edge. In the reverse fixture, which took place in Turin back in September, it was Juventus emerging 1-0 victors. I know that Juve has yet to drop a UCL fixture as they are 4-0 with a GD of +7. But they are already assured of  a spot in the Round of 16. Chelsea can join them there with a win on Tuesday. I think the Blues get the full three points as they look to continue a tremendous run of form this year.

Coming off a 3-0 win over Leicester City on Saturday, Chelsea continues to sit atop the Premier League table, holding a three-point edge over Man City (last season’s champs) and four-point edge over Liverpool (2019/20 champs). Having kept six clean sheets in their last eight matches, the Blues have also yet to concede more than once in any match this season. It has been a phenomenal defensive record under boss Thomas Tuchel and the lone goal conceded so far in Champions League play came in the 1-0 loss to Juve. 

Playing at home, with revenge and looking to book a spot in the final 16, there’s just a lot to like about Chelsea here. In addition to their aforementioned phenomenal defensive record, note that their 30 EPL goals have come from 15 different players. So there are plenty of attacking options. Juventus has infamously had a rather middling campaign in Serie A (where they are currently eighth due to goal differential). Their Champions League success is impressive, but few would argue that Chelsea isn’t the better overall side here. 10* Chelsea

10* Kansas State (9:30 ET): Arkansas is yet another team that my own personal power ratings do not believe should be in the Top 25. The Razorbacks are 3-0, so give them credit for that, but they are 1-2 ATS with the lone cover coming last time out in a 93-80 win over Northern Iowa. Even that game, which took place last Wednesday, was close as the teams exchanged the lead 18 times and the Hogs were only up one (79-78) with under three minutes remaining. I think it’s a good idea to take the points here. 

A major area of concern right now for Arkansas is that they are one of the worst teams in the country at defending the three-point line. They let Northern Iowa sink 17 of 37 attempts, so the first three opponents are hitting 43.4% from behind the arc. Kansas State happens to be shooting a very similar percentage from three-point range as the Wildcats are 2-0, having beaten Florida A&M and Nebraska-Omaha. Despite winning those games by a combined 25 points, KSU is 0-2 ATS. But here, we obviously don’t need to worry about laying points. 

Though this is technically a neutral site game in Kansas City, part of the Hall of Fame Classic, I think there’s a bit of an edge towards Kansas State in terms of the venue. There is also a lot of turnover on the Arkansas roster compared to last season. I don’t think they can count on Miami FL transfer Chris Lykes scoring 26 points (a career-high) again, like he did vs. Northern Iowa. Kansas State is 5-2 ATS its last seven games as a neutral site underdog. 10* Kansas State

10* Under Giants/Buccaneers (8:15 ET): Tampa Bay’s defense has given up 65 points the last two weeks as the team has lost B2B games for the first time since the midpoint of last season. The good news for Bucs fans is that after suffering those B2B losses last season, the team didn’t lose another game and went on to win the Super Bowl. I wouldn’t be all that confident in a similar run taking place here in 2021, but I do think at the very least the defense gets back on track Monday night vs. the Giants. 

The Giants, who are coming out of their bye week, are one of nine teams in the league that averages fewer than 20.0 PPG. It was a 23-16 win over the Raiders two weeks ago, but the touchdown that decided that game came from the defense (pick-six). Only twice in its last seven games has the Giants offense accounted for more than 20 points. Part of that has to do with RB Saquon Barkley being out, but let’s not look past the fact that Daniel Jones (0-7 SU in primetime games) is a below average NFL QB. 

One encouraging sign for the Giants is that their defense has allowed a total of just 39 points the last three games. A struggling Washington defense held Tom Brady & the Bucs offense to just 19 points last week, so I don’t see why the Giants can’t turn in yet another solid defensive effort tonight. On the flip side, Tampa Bay’s defense is giving up only 18.5 PPG at home. Both losses they recently suffered were on the road. Including last week, the Bucs are 4-0 Under off their previous four losses. 10* Under Giants/Buccaneers

10* Over Hornets/Wizards (7:05 ET): Both of these teams have been going Under quite a bit recently. That includes a head to head meeting with one another, back on the 17th, which was won by Charlotte 97-87. This recent rash of Unders is a little surprising, at least for the Hornets, who rank 29th (next to last) in the NBA in scoring defense, giving up 113.7 PPG. So I think that we’re “due” for an Over tonight. 

Not surprisingly, the total for tonight’s rematch is several points lower than where it was for last week’s meeting. It’s also on track to be the lowest O/U line for any Charlotte game this season. The previous low was 216.5 for a game vs. Indiana on Friday. Interestingly enough, that was the ONLY time in the Hornets’ last six games that the Over hit. The final score was 121-118. So I’m seeing some real value on this number.

Both teams are off to surprisingly good starts this season. Especially the Wizards, who are 7-1 SU at home where they are averaging 112.0 PPG. That’s a dramatic increase from how many points they are scoring on the road. In addition, you’ve got to figure they’ll shoot better than they did last week vs. Charlotte when they finished at just 36.7% from the field. The Wiz were just 8 of 42 from three-point range in that game! 10* Over Hornets/Wizards

8* Seton Hall (6:00 ET): Seton Hall has a shot at knocking off the Big 10’s two “blueblood” programs in consecutive games. I really like their chances of accomplishing this feat. Going into last Tuesday’s game at Michigan, I made it pretty clear that I consider the Pirates to be one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. I had them plus the points (+8) on the road against the Wolverines and sure enough, they delivered the outright upset, winning 67-65. My power rankings say Seton Hall is a Top 10 team in the country right now, so I will again take them here (laying a short number) vs. Ohio State.

Those same power rankings are NOT as bullish on Ohio State. Therefore, it was NOT a shock to see the Buckeyes go down 71-65 at Xavier last Thursday. Currently ranked #19 in the polls, OSU is likely to drop out when the new rankings are released. Again, my power ratings didn’t even consider them a Top 25 team in the first place. This is now a team that’s 1-3 ATS on the year and barely escaped Akron in the season opener, winning by just one point. Don’t forget that the Buckeyes were eliminated in the Opening Round of the NCAA Tournament last March, by 15-seed Oral Roberts. 

Due to the pandemic, OSU had not played a “true” road game in front of fans since the 2019-2020 season. It was not a good sign that they never led against Xavier. This game is being played in Fort Meyers, FL, part of a tournament, and I think it’s clear who the better team is at this point. Seton Hall is deep (plays 10 guys) and believes it is one of the best teams in the country. With them holding their first three opponents to 31.4% shooting, including 13.3% (!) from three-point range, I strongly believe in them as well. 8* Seton Hall

10* Arizona (9:30 ET): While Arizona turned out NOT to be a winning bet Friday night (they won, but failed to cover), my point that they are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now still stands. They are now 4-0 after beating Wichita State in overtime on Friday. In the second half of that game, it seemed like they were headed for a fourth straight cover (up double digits) but wilted down the stretch and allowed the Shockers to tie them and force OT. The Wildcats then scored the first nine points of the extra session before again allowing their opponents to get close.

Michigan rebounded nicely from its first loss of the season, beating UNLV late Saturday night 74-61 as 12-point favorites. But remember I successfully faded the Wolverines earlier in the week, when they lost outright (as eight-point favorites) to Seton Hall. Right now, I’d say Seton Hall and Arizona are my two most underrated teams in the country, so it’s some tough early scheduling for the Maize and Blue. I think that the #4 team in the country is about to suffer its second loss of the season. 

Arizona came into the Wichita State game ranked #1 in the country in effective field goal % defense and two-point FG% allowed. Sure enough, the Shockers did not shoot the ball well at all (33.8% overall, including 15 of 41 on 2-pt attempts!). But the problem is the Wildcats struggled from three-point range, sinking only 5 of 27 attempts from beyond the arc. I look for a team that’s scored 82 or more in every game to be better from distance tonight and upset the favored Wolverines. Take the points. 10* Arizona

9* Seattle (4:25 ET): The return of Russell Wilson last week produced a shocking result as the Seahawks were shut out for the 1st time since 2011, which predates Wilson’s tenure here in the Pacific Northwest. The 17-0 loss to the Packers leaves Seattle at 3-6 SU and in last place in the NFC West. This week feels like a “watershed” game for the team as another loss would essentially sink their season. But a win would certainly keep them viable in the playoff hunt. Given that the Seahawks are 15-7 ATS as a home dog under HC Pete Carroll, including 6-3 with Wilson as the starter, I’m taking the points here. 

Now I know that Arizona is 5-0 SU/ATS on the road this season and covered the spread in five of their last six visits to Seattle. But this week marks the first time since 2011 (again the year before Wilson arrived) that the Cardinals are favored here. The big story here is whether or not QB Kyler Murray (game-time decision) will play. Murray has missed the L2 games and backup Colt McCoy (will start if Murray can’t go) got injured last week in a 34-10 loss to Carolina. We know that WR DeAndre Hopkins is out Sunday. So the bottom line is that Arizona’s offense will NOT be at full strength, no matter what. 

Whether or not Murray ends up playing here is irrelevant to the selection. Coming back from a sprained ankle will limit his mobility, if he does play. If Murray is out, then I certainly don’t fear a banged up McCoy, who threw for only 107 yards last week. Given that Arizona’s bye is next week, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them hold Murray out. While Seattle was blanked last week, note that Wilson threw TWO interceptions in the end zone. He’s had a week to “shake off” the rust and I expect a big game from the Seahawks QB in this one. The Seahawks have three losses by a total of nine points, so their record could be much better. The Cardinals have dropped two of three following a 7-0 SU start. I can’t see them winning all their road games this season. 9* Seattle

10* Real Sociedad (3:00 ET): I’m a little surprised, dare I say SHOCKED, to see this line so low on Real Sociedad. The current leaders in La Liga have been in excellent form throughout the 2021/22 campaign, not only domestically, but also in the Europa League. The White and Blues can’t rest on their laurels too much, however. They are only one point clear of Real Madrid and Sevilla, both of whom have a match in hand. But I don’t think it will be too much trouble getting the full three points this week as they host mid-table side Valencia. 

Valencia has been one of La Liga’s highest scoring sides this season, totaling 21 goals in their 12 matches. Only Real Madrid (28) has scored more. But Los Che also have the second worst defensive record in the Spanish top flight, having shipped 20 goals. Only winless Levante has conceded more. Therefore, it probably wasn’t all that shocking to see Valencia involved in a six-goal thriller with Atletico Madrid right before the international break. However, sharing the points in that particular fixture is something that Los Che was quite fortunate to pull off. They were down 3-1 entering stoppage time and the first goal scored was an “own goal” from Atletico. 

Valencia figures to have Sociedad’s full attention here considering the table leaders have won just one of the last eight La Liga fixtures between the two sides. But, as detailed above, this has the feel of a pretty “special” season for Sociedad, who has yet to be beaten on home soil. Valencia has won just once in six away matches, losing three. Their last away fixture (back on Oct 27) resulted in a 4-1 loss to Real Betis. I’m backing Real Sociedad to win on Sunday. 10* Real Sociedad

10* Minnesota (1:00 ET): The Vikings finally stepped up and delivered a big-time performance last week, going to LA and defeating the Chargers 27-20 as three-point underdogs. Now 4-5 SU on the year, they seek to win B2B games for just the second time. Eight of their nine games have been decided by one score, including three in overtime and four by three points or less. So their won-loss record could easily be better. They have a positive point differential (+10) for the season. I believe this team is MUCH better than its record and is set to pull an “upset” over the division leading Packers on Sunday. 

Green Bay did it again last week, covering the spread for a ninth consecutive game as they defeated Seattle 17-0. The Packers’ current 9-0 ATS win streak is a franchise record and the third longest in history! Last week marked the return of Aaron Rodgers after he missed the loss to the Chiefs (GB’s only SU loss in the L9 games), but the former MVP has barely had any practice time the L2 weeks, not just because of COVID, but also due to a toe injury. Not that Rodgers needs a ton of practice time at this stage of his career, but here he’s facing a defense that is traditionally very good at home under Mike Zimmer. 

Minnesota allows 28.6 PPG on the road. But at home, they allow just 17.0 PPG. That’s a big difference. This week, it looks like they might get back both S Harrison Smith and CB Patrick Peterson, which would bring their secondary back to full health. Rodgers may be the QB that gets all the headlines in this matchup, but the Vikings’ Kirk Cousins is the one who actually leads the NFL in QB-INT ratio. Minnesota should probably be coming into this game on a five-game win streak (Dallas & Baltimore losses were both BRUTAL). This is a HUGE game for the Vikings to stay in the NFC North race and they are 19-6-1 ATS L26 as home dogs. 10* Minnesota

8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): While the Jaguars are far from my favorite team to endorse, I think this is a GREAT spot to fade the 49ers, who are on a short week and laying a big number on the road after upsetting the Rams Monday night. I took San Francisco on MNF and even I was shocked by the ease with which they won. It was 31-10, the team’s first home win in MORE THAN A YEAR. But despite the lopsided nature of the final score, yardage was pretty even - both for the game and on a per play basis. The big key was the Niners forcing two turnovers, one of which was a “pick six.” 

Really, you could make the case the Niners forced FOUR turnovers. There were two more Rams drives which ended inside the SF 20-yard line and did not result in any points. One saw the Rams attempt a fake field goal, which did not work. Another time they simply turned it over on downs. What I’m saying here is that we should temper our enthusiasm on the Niners somewhat. This is a team that had previously dropped five of six with the lone win coming against Chicago. Something else worth noting is just how poor the Niners have been as a favorite under Kyle Shanahan, going just 9-21-2 ATS. That includes 2-10 ATS L12 with NINE outright losses. This is the most points they’ve had to lay on the road this season. 

Jacksonville’s defense has only given up 29 points (total) the L2 games as they have covered the spread against both Buffalo and Indianapolis, two good teams. In fact, the Jaguars stunned the Bills two weeks ago here at home, 9-6 as two-touchdown underdogs. I mentioned earlier that SF just ended a long losing streak at home. Well, now the Jags look to end a 13-game losing streak vs. the NFC, which dates back three seasons. Not sure if they can end it, but take the points as I expect this to be a close game throughout. The 49ers are not as good as they “looked” Monday night. 8* Jacksonville

8* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): I think the Eagles have proven themselves to be better than their 4-6 SU record. Not only do they sport a positive point differential on the season (+26) but they’ve also outgained opponents on a per play basis. Last week saw the Eagles go to Denver and win very convincingly, 30-13 (line closed as a pick ‘em). But one thing that the team has failed to do this year is win at home! They are 0-4 SU at Lincoln Financial Field. The only other teams not to win a home game in 2021 are the Lions (obviously) and the odious Falcons. I think it’s about time Philly gets 1st year HC Nick Sirianni a win. Lay the short number here. 

New Orleans is a team that impressed me early on this season, but they seem to be on a downward trajectory. They are 0-2 SU in November with both losses coming by two points. But don’t let last week’s 23-21 score against Tennessee fool you. It was a late TD that got them the cover. A failed two-point try ensured there would be no OT. While only losing by two points to the hottest team in the league may not sound all that bad to you, what about losing at home to Atlanta? That’s what the Saints did two weeks ago. 

I understand that the Saints have not lost three in a row since they opened 2016 at 0-3, but this is a team now being quarterbacked by backup Trevor Siemian. The strength of the Saints now resides on the defensive side of the ball, particularly when it comes to stopping the run. But the Eagles lead the NFL in rush yards the L3 weeks and gashed the Saints for 246 yards in an 24-21 upset last season. That was the first career start for QB Jalen Hurts. Miles Sanders is set to return this week for the Eagles, making their rushing attack all the more formidable. 8* Philadelphia

10* Under Dolphins/Jets (1:00 ET): Well, I certainly wish the Jets would have started the archaic Joe Flacco last week when I had the Under in their game vs. Buffalo. Now, maybe it would have been a “moot point” as the Flyboys scored all of seven 17 points anyway. They gave up 45 (to Buffalo) as for the sixth straight time a Jets’ game went Over the total. I’m putting my foot down again this week, saying the streak comes to an end this week against a team that’s far less explosive than Buffalo, that being Miami. Take the Under. 

I know the Jets’ defense is bad, but they probably should not have given up 45 points last week. There was a disastrous six-minute stretch to open the second half where the Bills scored a TD on their opening possession, then got two more quick touchdowns off Jets’ interceptions. It was the third time in the last four games this Jets’ stop unit gave up 45+ points, something this league has not seen since the 1966 Giants! The good news for this week is that they will be facing Tua Tagovailoa, who has an injured thumb. The Dolphins have topped 22 points just one time in their last seven games. Jets’ HC Robert Salah’s specialty is the defensive side of the ball and he’s got to get this group playing better.

But Miami’s defense probably feels pretty good about itself coming into this game. And it should, given it held Baltimore to only 10 points in a shocking Thursday night win last week. I had the Dolphins plus the points in that one and was taken aback by their performance. If they can shut Flacco’s old team down, then they can certainly shut down the 36-year old Flacco quarterbacking what is the league’s seventh lowest scoring offense (17.9 PPG). Four of Miami’s last five games have seen 43 or less total pts scored. This has all the makings of an ugly, low-scoring division game. 10* Under Dolphins/Jets

8* Bologna (9:00 ET): Currently eighth in the table and level with Juventus at 18 points, Bologna is off to its best start in Serie A since 2002. Their 19 goals scored is their most through 12 matches since ‘97! Another positive is that right before the international break, they snapped a streak of nine straight away matches without a win, beating Sampdoria 2-1. Now Bologna is set to return to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara where their form has been quite good this season. They sit fourth in the home form rankings this season, taking 13 out of a possible 18 points. I had them when they downed Cagliari here two weeks ago, 2-0. 

The Rossoblu have to like their chances this week as they host Venezia, a newly promoted side for the 2021/22 season. Venezia sits 15th in the table entering matchweek 13, only three points clear of the drop zone. Clearly, simply remaining in the Italian top flight for next season is the lone goal for the Arancioneroverdi. A shocking come from behind victory over Roma before the break was a big step in that direction, but it remains to be seen if Venezia is capable of beating a team in the top half of the table away from home. They have just one away win this season. 

Venezia already has six losses in total this season, four of those coming away from home. Prior to the shocking comeback win over Roma - which included a penalty in the 65th minute - they’d picked up just one total point from their three previous fixtures. Having struggled so mightily on their travels this season, it’s highly unlikely that Venezia will be even able to share the points here, especially given Bologna’s excellent home form. Venezia has scored just 11 goals all season, second fewest in Serie A, only four of them coming away. 8* Bologna

8* Texas Tech (8:00 ET): Maybe I’ve underrated Oklahoma State all season long? The Cowboys are up to #9 in the country in the latest CFP rankings. They’re climbing in my own power ratings as well. After last week’s 63-17 dismantling of TCU (a bad call by me), the Pokes are also the #9 team in the country by my estimation. But covering eight consecutive games is pretty ridiculous. With Bedlam (Oklahoma game) on deck, I (again) think it’s a good time to fade Mike Gundy’s team. This time I’ll be right.

For the second straight week, OSU faces a team fresh off an upset. This week it’s Texas Tech, who last week downed Iowa State 41-38 here in Lubbock, as a 12.5-point underdog. That win made the Red Raiders bowl eligible (first time since ‘15) as they continue to play for an interim HC (Sonny Combie) following the surprising dismissal of Matt Wells last month. A permanent successor, Baylor associate HC Joey McGuire, has already been hired but will not take over the reins until after the season. 

Combie got his first win in the most dramatic way possible, on a 62-yard field goal as time expired. It was the second upset for Texas Tech in Big 12 play (also won at West Virginia). Keep an eye on QB Donovan Smith, who made his 1st career start against Iowa State and threw for 322 yards and three touchdowns. The Red Raiders are 6-2-2 ATS their L10 times as an underdog here in Lubbock and they’ve covered five straight meetings, all as underdogs, against Oklahoma State. Twice they pulled the outright upset. 8* Texas Tech.

8* Under Oregon/Utah (7:30 ET): Well, this line should certainly catch your eye. For just the second time ever, we’ve got a Top 3 team getting points against an opponent with two or more losses in the month of November. The only other time this happened was 2010 when underdog Auburn (#2) won 28-27 at Alabama. I do not believe for a second that the Ducks are the third best team in the country, but a win over Ohio State early in the season and the fact they have just one loss (at Stanford in overtime) seems to justify their place among the top four. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Ducks end up losing here, but do not want to lay points. 

Utah currently leads the Pac 12 South, so this could end up being the first of two meetings with Oregon as the teams are on track to meet again in the Pac 12 Championship Game. The Utes are 7-3 SU and on a three-game win streak. They are also on a six-game Over run, putting up a ton of points themselves in the process. Last week it was a 38-29 win over Arizona. But I expect the Utes to struggle to move the ball in this one. Oregon’s defense has allowed an average of just 292.7 yards the last three games and gives up just 22.6 PPG for the season.

Not to be overlooked is the fact Utah has allowed an average of only 302.3 yards its last three games. Here in Salt Lake City, they allow just 18.8 PPG. One of the touchdowns that the Utes allowed last week came on a blocked punt. The Under is 6-1 in Oregon’s last seven road games and I’m not convinced the Ducks can continue to convert third downs at their current rate (51.6%!) and this is a pretty high total (2nd highest for Utah all year), given the stakes involved. 8* Under Oregon/Utah

10* Maryland (3:30 ET): Michigan is 9-1 SU/8-2 ATS after getting by Penn State last week. That win kept the Wolverines at #6 in the rankings, ahead of next week’s showdown with #4 Ohio State. If the Buckeyes defeat #7 Michigan State on Saturday and Michigan wins here, then that would set up a “winner take all” showdown in the Big Ten East next week. I know that Maryland, Michigan’s opponent this week, has had its fair share of problems. But this is an opportune time to play against the Wolverines, off the big win last week and with the rivalry game looming next week. Take the points. 

I know I may be a little bit biased (had Maryland) but the Terps probably deserved a better fate than losing by 19 last week at Michigan State. Total yardage was fairly even in that contest, but there were four Maryland drives that ended inside the Spartans’ 40-yard line that resulted in a combined zero points! That’s brutal. QB Tagovailoa (Tua’s younger brother) threw for 300+ yards for the sixth time this season, which is not only the most for any Big 10 QB in 2021 but also a school record. Maryland has now failed to cover in any of its last six games, but should remain motivated as it needs one more win to become bowl eligible. 

I actually believe that Michigan does deserve to be ranked ahead of Michigan State despite the head to head loss. However, the Wolverines have had some close calls this season, winning three Big 10 games by seven points or less. I think this could be yet another close one as the Wolverines’ defense hasn’t been nearly as stout on the road as it has been in Ann Arbor. One of Michigan’s top two running backs, Blake Corum, is likely to miss this game as well. It’s a classic “sandwich” spot for the favorite whose previous four road games have all had a line of four points or less. 10* Maryland

9* Over Illinois/Iowa (2:00 ET): The last eight games involving Illinois have all stayed Under the total. Perhaps the “nadir” for Over bettors came when the Fighting Illini took on Penn State, a game that went to NINE overtimes and still stayed Under. None of the Illini’s Big 10 games have seen more than 38 total points scored and this week they are matched up with the team that has the #7 scoring defense in the country, Iowa, who allows only 16.3 PPG. Yet this O/U line is so low that it is just BEGGING to be played Over. For the season, Illinois’ games average 38.9 PPG. Iowa games average 41.0 PPG. 

Illinois is coming out of a bye, so they’ve had plenty of time to scheme for how they want to attack this Iowa defense. Last week saw the Hawkeyes give up 22 points for the third time in four games. They also allowed 400+ yards for just the second time this season. The Hawkeyes were actually statistically dominated by Minnesota (outgained 409-277), but fortunate to hold the Gophers to three short field goals. 

Unfortunately though, Illinois won’t have HC Brett Bielema on the sidelines as he’s tested positive for COVID-19. I expect that Bielema’s absence will have a greater effect on the defensive side of the ball for the Illini. Iowa scored 27 last week, it’s most in a game since a 51-14 win over Maryland back on October 1st. Also, don’t discount the Hawkeyes’ defense being able to create takeaways that lead to a score or two. With their lowest O/U line in a game all year, Illinois’ Under streak is due to end here. 9* Over Illinois/Iowa

8* Ohio State (12:00 ET): At the risk of sounding biased, there is simply no way that anyone can convince me that Michigan State is the 7th best team in the country. Congrats to HC Mel Tucker for getting a big extension based off his Spartans being 9-1 SU and still alive for a Big 10 Championship and the College Football Playoff. But this is a team that SHOULD have lost to Michigan a few weeks ago and also has two other narrow wins against Nebraska (OT) and Indiana. Even last week’s 40-21 win over Maryland comes with an “asterisk” as Sparty was only +34 in total yards. It’s time that MSU “meets its maker” this week and that maker is #4 Ohio State.

The Buckeyes, unlike Michigan State, are a legit playoff team in my eyes. Since losing to #3 Oregon early in the season, OSU has rolled through the Big 10 (as per usual) winning the seven games by an average of 27.9 points. If that’s not enough, just last week the Buckeyes slaughtered the same Purdue team (59-31) that handed Michigan State its only loss. Because this is a battle of Top 7 teams, this is a rare instance where the public figures to be taking the points. Early reports are that the public is “all over” the double digit dog in this one and I think that’s a mistake. 

Right off the bat, it speaks volumes that Ohio State is favored by this many points. My own power ratings confirm the line as being accurate, if not a bit low. I have the Buckeyes now rated as the #2 team in the country, only behind Georgia, so this is their chance to make a statement in front of a big TV audience. Consider that this is just the second time in history that a matchup of Top 7 teams has a spread of 19 points or more. That was in 2013 and the favorite (Florida State) won 41-14 (over Miami). Michigan State has an awful pass defense that will be exploited by Buckeyes’ QB Stroud and the #1 scoring offense in the country. OSU has won each of the last four matchups by 20 points or more. 8* Ohio State

10* RB Leipzig (9:30 AM ET): I think that, at this point, we can all agree that RB Leipzig is one of the three best sides in the Bundesliga this season. Nine-time champion Bayern Munich remains the class of the German top flight, but behind them it figures to be a battle between Dortmund and Leipzig for second. Now Leipzig is currently only in fifth place and four points adrift of third. But off the impressive 2-1 win over Dortmund that occurred just prior to the International Break, Leipzig has both the second best GD (+12) and xPts (20.3) in the entire Bundesliga. 

So I expect them to continue their march into the top four this week as they travel to Hoffenheim. The line is low for two reasons. One is that Hoffenheim is no slouch. They’ve won four straight at home across all competitions. The other is that Leipzig has yet to win a single time on their travels this season (three draws, two losses). But there’s a “first time for everything” and in this case, I think it’s pretty clear that Leipzig is poised to win a Bundesliga away match for the first time this season. With a disappointing run in the Champions League set to end, Leipzig can not turn its full focus towards the domestic front. 

Hoffenheim currently sits 10th in the Bundesliga standings and is pretty firmly a “mid-table side.” Although they are one of only seven sides currently sporting a positive GD (+2) this Bundesliga season, I don’t see Die Kraichgauer making it up to a spot where they’d be in position to play European football next season. Their five losses are actually tied for third most in the entire Bundesliga. Right before the Int’l Break, they lost to VfL Bochum, a newly promoted side that wasn’t too far off from the relegation zone before picking up the three points. 10* RB Leipzig

8* Arizona (10:00 ET): A pair of 3-0 teams meet tonight in Vegas with Wichita State taking on Arizona. The underdog Shockers have done a good job defensively in the early going, giving up just 55.3 points per contest. However, two of their wins (Jacksonville State, South Alabama) have been by six points or less, so they’re struggling to score. Even in their biggest win to date, 65-51 over Tarleton State on Tuesday, they weren’t exactly “efficient” on offense. That’s a problem when facing Arizona.

The Wildcats come in averaging 94 PPG and have scored 81 or more in every game. Their wins have come against Northern Arizona, UTRGV and North Dakota State. The closest any of those three opponents came was within 29 points. So it’s been a very impressive start in Tucson and my power ratings are INCREDIBLY high on them. And that’s for good reason. Right now, they rank 1st in the entire NCAA in effective field goal percentage allowed and two-point FG% allowed. 

I know that Wichita State is likely to get back Tyson Etienne, one of its best players, who missed the Tarleton State game. But with Etienne in the lineup the team struggled somewhat in the first two games. I just don’t see Wichita State having the requisite amount of offense to “hang” here with Arizona, who has been just incredible at the defensive end as well. I know that earlier in the week I said that Seton Hall might be the most underrated team in the country right now, but Arizona might be even more underrated! 8* Arizona

8* Memphis (9:00 ET): Memphis is a team that still needs one more win to become bowl eligible. At 5-5 SU, the Tigers have two games left, this one and next week at home vs. Tulane. They’ll be favored in next week’s game, but why leave it to chance? The Tigers were “oh, so close” to their sixth win last week, but lost in OT, 30-29 to East Carolina as their two-point conversion attempt (to win the game) failed. While they’ve now lost five of their last seven, four of those defeats have been by six points or less and remember they did beat SMU two weeks ago. I’m taking the points Friday night. 

Houston was the first team to hand SMU a loss this season. That came at the end of October and the Cougars have kept on rolling here in November. Road wins over USF (54-42) and Temple (37-8) have the Cougs now ranked in the Top 25 (#24) and on a nine-game win streak. Their lone loss of the season came in the season opener to Texas Tech. I will say that the schedule has been somewhat fortuitous as UH avoids Cincinnati in the regular season. But last week’s win did set up a matchup with the #5 ranked Bearcats in the American Conference Championship Game, which takes place two weeks from now. 

With their place in the AAC Championship all sewn up, might Houston be overlooking Memphis in this spot? That’s certainly a possibility. Before holding a terrible Temple team to just 8 points last week, the Cougars defense had allowed a total of 79 points its previous two games. Memphis, who has won and covered five straight in the series, is capable of putting up a lot of points. They’ve scored 28 or more points in every game but one this season. This will be the first time in 2021 that the Tigers are getting more than 3.5 points from the oddsmakers. Houston is just 3-11 ATS following a SU win of 20+ points. 8* Memphis

10* Georgia (9:00 ET): We’ve got a matchup of 2-1 teams from the Peach State on Friday with Georgia hosting Georgia Tech. Of the two records, Georgia Tech’s is more disappointing as the Yellow Jackets have been favored in every game. They lost their season opener, 72-69 to Miami (OH), after missing their last six shots of the game. Being upset early in the season is nothing new for Ga Tech as they’ve previously gone down to the likes of Grambling, Wofford and Gardner-Webb in recent years. 

Since then, it’s been a pair of blowout victories for the Yellow Jackets, 77-52 over Stetson and 75-66 over Lamar. But take note it was a four-point game with Lamar in the 2H on Monday. Though it’s not a long trip to Athens, this will be Ga Tech’s first “true” road game of the season. Georgia’s loss came at Cincinnati, so they’re 2-0 SU at home with the wins coming against Florida International and South Carolina State. It was a 16-point win over SC State on Tuesday, though that wasn’t enough to cover the spread (-21.5). 

I think that Georgia Tech is still getting too much “residual credit” for winning the ACC Tournament last season. Multiple players from that team departed and this group is simply not as strong, especially with two players listed as questionable for tonight. Georgia has captured each of the L5 meetings between the teams (did not play last season) and I like them as a home dog here as my power ratings give the Yellow Jackets no real edge after factoring in the home court advantage. Take the points. 10* Georgia

10* Southern Miss (8:00 ET): The Golden Eagles came through for me last Saturday, easily covering as 32.5 point underdogs against undefeated UTSA. In fact, they actually LED OUTRIGHT for most of the third quarter. Now we shouldn’t lose sight of “the plot,” which is that Southern Miss is pretty clearly a bad team. They are just 1-9 SU on the season and had failed to cover seven straight games going into last week. But they showed me that they are still willing to compete and getting double digits against a 3-7 La Tech team - that has nothing left to play for - is an attractive option. Take the points. 

Now La Tech was a SU winner last week, 42-32 against Charlotte as 6.5-point favorites. But it was the week before, when they lost 52-38 to UAB, that the Bulldogs saw their faint chances of bowl eligibility go out the window. They’d lost five in a row before beating Charlotte with three of those losses coming by at least 14 points. Believe it or not, La Tech has been favored in half of its games so far. But never by THIS MUCH, not even when they hosted a FCS opponent (SE Louisiana) early in the season. They only won that game by three points and their average MOV when favored this season is just +0.2 PPG. 

This C-USA rivalry has a history of upset, at least recently, with the dog going 5-0-1 ATS the L6 meetings including five outright upsets! Last week saw USM head coach Will Hall dip into his “bag of tricks” and start Frank Gore Jr at QB. Gore is a running back and not even listed on the QB depth chart. If Hall tries that again, Louisiana Tech will obviously not be caught as off-guard as UTSA was. But the Golden Eagles may have found something with Gore under center. The La Tech defense gave up 548 yards last week to Charlotte. The Bulldogs’ three wins this year have been by a TOTAL of 20 points. They shouldn’t be favored by this many points against ANYBODY. 10* Southern 

8* Under Athletic Club/Levante (3:00 ET): No side in La Liga has shipped more goals than Levante’s 25. It’s really not even close as Valencia has conceded the second most with 20. Hence, Levante is the only remaining winless team in the table (0-6-7) and currently sits at the foot of table, level with Getafe at six points and a -13 YTD goal differential. Each of the L5 Levante matches have seen three or more total goals scored, but a matchup here with Athletic Club should change that as the Lions have conceded the second fewest number of goals in all of La Liga. Take the Under. 

Athletic Club currently sits eighth in the table with 18 points and a win Friday would move them into a fifth place tie with Real Betis. Prior to the International Break, Athletic suffered a surprising 1-0 home loss to Cadiz, which snapped a five-match unbeaten run in La Liga. While the Lions have conceded the second fewest number of goals in all of La Liga (8), they have also scored the third fewest (11). The 19 total goals scored in Athletic’s 12 matches are easily the fewest for any La Liga side this season. 

Levante has actually scored more times than Athletic Club this season, but only one goal more. So we’re looking at two of the bottom five scoring sides in the entire Spanish top flight here. While I think Athletic has been somewhat unlucky to score only 11 goals, at the same time Levante has been a bit unlucky to concede as many as they have. Five of Athletic’s last six fixtures have seen two or fewer total goals scored. 8* Under Athletic Club/Levante

8* Under Patriots/Falcons (8:20 ET): The “world” figures to be on New England here and I really can’t blame them. They are off a dominant 45-7 win over Cleveland where three of the TD drives went for 92+ yards. The Pats have won and covered four straight games and thanks to a couple blowouts, they are tied (w/ the Cardinals) for the league’s 2nd best YTD point differential, behind only Buffalo. Bill Belichick’s team is also a perfect 4-0 (straight up) on the road and is going against an Atlanta team that is not only 0-3 SU/ATS at home, but also off a horrendous 43-3 loss to Dallas last week. 

But I just can’t pull the trigger on a Thursday night road favorite of this size, even if my own power ratings say that it’s probably the right move. Instead, let’s turn to the total. After giving up an 84-yard TD drive on the opening possession, the Patriots’ defense held Cleveland to just 133 total yards the rest of the game. That marked the third time in four weeks that the Pats held their opponent to 13 points or less. Atlanta certainly didn’t do much offensively last week, gaining only 214 total yards and scoring just three points.

So it stands to reason that the Falcons won’t be doing much scoring here. They only average 19.8 PPG to begin with and that number actually drops at home, down to 16.3. Making matters worse for the underdog, they are without Calvin Ridley and probably Cordarrelle Patterson (game-time decision). New England’s defense is #2 overall in scoring and allows only 14.5 PPG on the road. So again, don’t expect many points from the Falcons Thursday night. Let’s just hope that it’s an off-night for the Patriots offensively. If so, this should be an easy Under, a bet that has cashed each of the L5 times Atlanta has played on Thursday night. 8* Under Patriots/Falcons

10* Under Clippers/Grizzlies (8:05 ET): This will be the second meeting of the year between these teams. Back on October 23rd, the Grizzlies won a high-scoring contest, 120-114 as four-point road underdogs. That was the second game of the season for both teams. The Clippers found themselves at 1-4 SU through five games, but have turned it around in November (despite multiple injuries) by winning eight of their last nine. So Memphis should expect a tougher challenge in this second go-around. It should also be a much lower-scoring game. Take the Under. 

The sharp decline in scoring, league-wide, has been one of the big stories so far this NBA season. The Clippers are allowing only 102.5 PPG and Tuesday saw them hold San Antonio to just 92 in a comfortable win. With Kawhi Leonard out, Paul George has mostly carried the scoring burden at the offensive end. But he’s also gotten some help from unexpected contributors, such as Luke Kennard and Brandon Boston Jr on Monday. I wouldn’t expect a repeat effort from either of those two tonight. Also, key reserve Terrance Mann is likely still out due to an ankle injury. 

Memphis poured in a season-high 136 points Monday. But that was against lowly Houston. Six of the Grizzlies’ previous seven games had stayed Under the total. Monday was also only the second time in the last 11 games that the Grizzlies scored more than 108 points. They are more healthy than the Clippers are right now, but don’t expect Memphis to shoot as well as they did in the first meeting. The Under has hit the previous five times they have been an underdog. 10* Under Clippers/Grizzlies

10* Northern Illinois (8:00 ET): I’m a bit shocked by this pointspread as Missouri is coming off a terrible 80-66 loss (as 11-point favorites) to UMKC. The Tigers trailed by as many as 22 points in that game and only briefly led at the outset. They shot a woeful 4 for 14 from “downtown” (three-point range), missed 10 of 24 free throws and turned the ball over 18 times. Obviously, that loss should have Mizzou motivated coming into tonight, but covering the double digit spread is something I just do not see happening. 

Northern Illinois has already pulled one upset this season. In their season opener, they went across the country to Washington and won 71-64 as a 20-point underdog. Predictably, NIU came back “down to Earth” in the next game when it visited Indiana and lost 85-49. The Huskies couldn’t “hit water from a boat” in that one, making just 30.4% of their field goal attempts, including just 2 of 11 from three-point range. So they too should be in line for an improved effort tonight. 

Missouri wasn’t all that impressive in its opening game when it defeated Central Michigan 78-68 as a 16-point favorite. Having already failed twice as DD chalk, it’s difficult for me to understand why the oddsmakers have the Tigers laying so many points yet again. Especially with two players potentially out, one of them Jarron Coleman, who is a double digit scorer. Northern Illinois has done a solid job at getting to the free throw line thus far, averaging 26 attempts per game. Mizzou has now failed to cover six straight games, going back to last season. 10* Northern Illinois

8* Boise State (2:00 ET): The analysis for this matchup, which is a neutral site game in Charleston, SC, should sound “eerily familiar” to last night’s play on George Mason against Maryland. Once again, we’ve got a ranked team that has been less than stellar in the opening week of the season and my power ratings aren’t as high on them as the pollsters are. Yesterday, I talked about how Maryland had been “playing with fire” in its first few games, falling behind early only to pull out the win in the second half. Well, they lost. Don’t be surprised if the same thing happens to St. Bonaventure on Thursday. 

The 22nd ranked Bonnies are 2-0, but haven’t been all that impressive in either game. Don’t be fooled by the final score of that opening game with Siena. St. Bonaventure trailed for most of the first half and was only up by four going into the break. Things were even “scarier” Sunday against Canisius as the Bonnies were down nine with just 14 minutes left. Down the stretch, they turned things on defensively and were able to pull off a 69-60 win. But they did not come close to covering as they were 20.5-point favorites. Heading into their first game away from home, the Bonnies are outside the top 35 in my power ratings (same as Maryland yday). 

Boise State is coming off a 58-50 loss at UC Irvine. As you can tell from that score, the Broncos really struggled to make shots in that one, finishing at just 32.2% overall including a dreadful 3 of 22 from three-point range. At the same time, they allowed the Anteaters to make six of their nine 3PA. I anticipate the Broncos will shoot much better in this game, perhaps similar to the 51.6 FG% we saw in the opener vs. Utah Valley State. St. Bonaventure could be without A-10 Defensive POY Osun Osunniyi, who injured his back against Canisius. Take the points. 8* Boise State

8* Little Rock (10:00 ET): Little Rock will be looking for a perfect 4-0 start to the season tonight when they hit the West Coast to face Loyola Marymount. Obviously, the oddsmakers don’t like the Trojans’ chances here. But this seems like an awfully high number given the respective starts to the season by the two teams involved. Loyola Marymount is only 1-1 SU and lost outright (as 7-point favorites) in their only game against a D-I opponent (the opener vs. Chattanooga). Seems like an opportune time to grab the points. 

Little Rock’s season began with an outright upset as they went to Carbondale and beat Southern Illinois 69-66 as a 6.5-point dog. Since that time, the Trojans have faced a couple of non-board teams (Champion Christian College and Arkansas Baptist) and blew both opponents out, winning 115-51 and 91-60. Obviously, not a ton can be ascertained from those victories, but the fact Little Rock has already gone on the road and won as an underdog definitely sticks out to me. They should enter tonight’s game as a confident bunch. 

Not only did Loyola Marymount lose its opener to Chattanooga, but they could barely get by a non-board team (Arizona Christian) on Saturday, winning only 74-67. So you’ve got a Little Rock team that’s already recorded one upset on the road and then blown out two non-board teams taking on a LMU team that has already lost once outright as a home favorite and could barely get by a non-board team. Plus we’re getting double digits here. Thank you very much! 8* Little Rock

10* Mississippi State (8:00 ET): The oddsmakers seem to be a “step slow” in accounting for the respective starts of the two teams here. Mississippi State is 2-0 SU/ATS with blowout wins over North Alabama (75-49) and Montana (86-49). The Bulldogs were DD favorites in both games and obviously had little difficulty covering the spread. Per my own power ratings, this number should be north of -20 as MSU welcomes a struggling Detroit side to Starkville. Lay the points. 

Detroit’s early season schedule is nothing short of insane. They will play their first nine games on the road and this trip takes them all over the country and to the Bahamas. So far the Titans have lost at Wyoming (85-47) and Toledo (81-73). Their best player is Antoine Davis, the coach’s son, but despite a combined 37 points in the first two games he’s only shooting 35.9% overall including 3 of 14 from three-point range. Defensively, this team obviously has its issues having given up an average of 83 PPG so far. 

Making matters worse for the Titans here is that it’s looking probable that Miss State will have Rocket Watts in the lineup tonight. A transfer from Michigan State, Watts had hip surgery in June and has missed the first two games. The Bulldogs certainly didn’t need him as they won by a combined 63 points and this figures to be a third straight blowout win for them as they’ve got six players averaging at least nine points per game. They are 15th in the country in 3-point shooting (46.3%) and led 42-16 at halftime in their last game. 10* Mississippi State

10* Cleveland (7:35 ET): This spread is too high, even before taking into account the fact that Brooklyn is in the second game of a back to back. The Nets were hammered here at home last night by Golden State in a 117-99 loss that prompted HC Steve Nash to remark that his team doesn’t belong in the same conversation as some of the top teams in this league. The Nets are 10-5 SU overall, but 0-4 against the Warriors, Heat, Bulls and Bucks. Kevin Durant was held to a season-low 19 points Tuesday night and was clearly outplayed by Steph Curry. While it’s a drop in class tonight hosting Cleveland, I’ll be taking the points in this one. 

The Cavs have definitely been a surprise at the outset of the 2021-22 season. They are 9-6 SU and also tied for the best ATS record in the league at 10-4-1. I did play AGAINST the Monday night, but that was when they were a short home dog against a revenge-minded Boston team. Even that game was close, though I walked away with a winning ticket. Losing standout rookie Evan Mobley to an elbow injury definitely hurts, but this is a team that has yet to be blown out all year. 10* Cleveland

8* George Mason (7:00 ET): I “learned my lesson” with Maryland last week when I made the mistake of laying the points with them against George Washington. They couldn’t come close to covering the 17-point spread and actually trailed at the half. Falling behind seems to be a problem for the Terrapins as they also trailed Vermont at halftime over the weekend. So while they’re now 3-0 SU and ranked #20 in the country, the Terps sure seem like an overrated side to me. I’ll fade them as DD favorites here on Wednesday. 

George Mason also comes into this game at 3-0 SU. While they’ve faced lesser competition, the Patriots haven’t had nearly the kind of close calls Maryland has. All three GMU victories thus far have been by at least 21 points and the average margin of victory is 26.7 PPG. They are 3-0 ATS. On Sunday, they held Morgan State to 34% shooting (7 of 24 from 3-pt range) in a dominant 90-53 effort, their biggest win to date. George Mason’s best player is Josh Oduro, who is averaging 19.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game so far. As a team, the Patriots are shooting 40.5% from three-point range. 

After trailing at the half in B2B games, Maryland seems ripe to be upset. They’ve yet to win a game by more than 14 points and against Vermont they were down seven in the second half. James Graham III remains suspended for this game. I know GMU is 0-9 SU all-time vs. Maryland, but this year’s team is averaging 83.7 PPG so far (2nd most among A-10 teams) and seems primed for a breakout under 1st year HC Kim English. My own power ratings don’t have Maryland in the Top 35. Take the points. 8* George Mason

10* Buffalo (7:00 ET): For many years, Northern Illinois was a force in the MAC. But the first two years under HC Thomas Hammock were a real struggle in DeKalb, including a disastrous 0-6 (SU) 2020 season. But the Huskies have rebounded this year to go 7-3 SU and lead the West Division with two weeks to go. This is pretty clearly NOT something that was expected as NIU has been favored in only two games all season and one of those was against FCS Maine! Their last two wins have each been by a single point (30-29 over Ball St and 39-38 over C Mich). I smell an “upset” cooking Weds night.

Now judging by the line, a Buffalo win here wouldn't be much of an “upset” at all. In fact, that’s what I’m banking on. After winning the MAC East LY, Buffalo has had a trying 2021 season due to former HC Lance Leipold bolting for Kansas after spring football. But the Bulls were able to get to 4-4 SU before suffering bad losses to Bowling Green (56-44) and Miami (45-18) the L2 weeks. Still, they’ve got a shot at bowl eligibility, but must now win out. The fact UB is averaging 36.4 PPG at home is a promising sign as is their 12-3-1 ATS run when priced as a home underdog. 

Northern Illinois had beaten Buffalo 12 straight times. But then came last year when the Bulls won in blowout fashion, 49-30 as 13-point favorites. I can’t stress just how lucky NIU has been so far in 2021. They have THREE one-point victories and FOUR by two points or less. Despite the 7-3 SU record, they’ve been outscored and outgained over the course of the season. The one time they were favored in MAC play, the Huskies failed to cover. Buffalo actually has a positive point differential this year. Despite what the WL records may say, this shouldn’t be considered an “upset” when the Bulls win. Take the points. 10* Buffalo

analysis soon

8* Philadelphia (10:05 ET): These two teams each finished first in their respective conferences last year in the regular season. But neither got to the NBA Finals. Both were actually ousted in the second round of the playoffs, the Sixers by the Hawks and the Jazz by the Clippers. Fast starts to the 2021-22 campaign had them each at/near the top again, but both have since faded. Philly comes into tonight on a four-game losing streak while Utah has lost four of its last five, including two straight. I think you have to take the points here. 

Now I’m well aware that the Sixers are without Joel Embiid as well as several other key contributors. They haven’t won since Embiid tested positive for COVID-19. But all four losses have been by nine points or fewer. On Saturday against Indiana, the 76ers got 24 points from Tyrese Maxey and 16-11 (points & rebounds) from Andre Drummond. Scoring wasn’t a problem as the team finished with 113 points. The problem was letting the Pacers shoot a blistering 57.3% from the field. 

I do not see that happening again tonight. Utah has struggled to score of late, not topping 105 points in three of its last four contests. They were down 22 in the fourth quarter against Miami on Saturday, the second straight game they fell behind by double digits. With this being a national TV game (TNT), the Sixers aren’t going to want to get embarrassed, so look for them to be plenty motivated and keep this game closer than the oddsmakers think. They’ve covered seven of the last eight meetings with Utah. 8* Philadelphia