8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Neither of these teams have been playing well of late. The Hornets have lost seven in a row to fall out of the top eight in the Eastern Conference. I did cash them plus the points Saturday, however, as they lost by only seven at Utah. On the bright side, that marked the first time they covered a game during this losing streak. Of course, that's nothing compared to what Brooklyn has gone through this season. The Nets have just ONE win since X-Mas and have lost their last nine games. While they've been somewhat competitive in the last four (all decided by single digits), the fact is this team has just two road wins all year and isn't going to win tonight. Charlotte is better than its record shows. As I mentioned in Saturday's analysis, they have the fifth best per game point differential and net efficiency rating in the Eastern Conference. Lay the points.

While I believe the Hornets are better than their 23-28 SU record, they have actually struggled against the Nets this year. They're 0-3 ATS against them so far this season, including an outright loss (in Brooklyn) back in December. When they hosted the Nets last month, they were favored by 12 and won by only seven. That game saw Brooklyn make 17 three-pointers, which is atypical. The Hornets haven't won since, but have had to play Golden State twice, not to mention a couple of red-hot teams in Washington and Utah. Saturday night in Utah saw them enter the fourth quarter w/ a nine-point lead only to get outscored 32-16 over the final 12 minutes. It should be pointed out that leading scorer Kemba Walker was sick going into that game, but is now reportedly feeling better.

No matter what way you slice it, Brooklyn is the worst team in the league. They have lost 20 of 21 games since beating Charlotte at home on 12.26. On the road, they give up an average of 117.5 PPG. What's really scary if you're a Nets fan (besides still being a Nets fan) is that the team has actually played better defense of late and is still losing. It's last three games, opponents have shot only 41.6 percent against them. Over the L5 games, they're giving up an average of "only" 107.4 PPG. Given they are last in the league defensively, I expect this to lead to Charlotte having its best offensive output in some time tonight. The price is high here and I know Charlotte hasn't been good of late. But if there's any recipe for a turnaround, it's a visit from Brooklyn. I like the addition of Miles Plumlee to the roster as well. 8* Charlotte

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Pun intended, but the Heat are red hot right now. They arrive in the Twin Cities riding a 10-game win streak where they are also 10-0 ATS. For much of the year, in my weekly power rankings column, I made the case that this team was better than its record. But in saying that, I never would have expected this! Speaking of "better than it's record," the T'wolves are a team that should have a lot more wins. They've lost three in a row to drop to 19-32 SU on the year, but interestingly have the Western Conference's eighth best per game point differential and net efficiency rating. In addition to the three-game losing streak, mor bad news came down over the weekend when it was announced Zach LaVine was done for the year w/ an ACL injury. Still though, I believe they have enought - at home - to snap Miami's stunning win streak. 

Though LaVine is one of three under-22 (year old) players on the T'wolves roster to be averaging at least 18.9 PPG and started 47 of 50 games this year, his absence may not have quite the severe impact you think. Before losing to Memphis on Saturday, the team had gone 3-0 SU/ATS w/ LaVine out of the lineup, all three wins coming by double digits. LaVine isn't a great defender and strangely PG Ricky Rubio seems to shoot a lot better when he's not on the floor. Karl Anthony Towns (double-double in 30 of last 32 games) and Andrew Wiggins are still the team's two best players. Something else to consider is that the T'wolves are 7-1 ATS this season when coming off three consecutive SU losses. They actually led Memphis by 16 after one quarter on Saturday, but it ended up being yet another game where the T'wolves blew a double digit lead (I've lost count how many times they've done that this season). Something else to consider is Minnesota is 3-7 SU in games decided by three points or less this year. That record is bound to improve. 

Speaking of improvement, it's safe to say no one saw Miami coming. Prior to this 10-game win streak, they'd actually lost 10 of 11 and were 11-30 SU overall. Though they do have wins over both Houston and Golden State during the streak, it's largely been an easy and home-heavy schedule, which in part explains the surge. Playing Brooklyn twice and Philadelphia over the L6 games definitely helps. Offensive production has been way up of late, but they still ranks 26th in the league in efficiency. We should start to see regression there. Also, the Heat are only 8-17 SU on the road this year, averaging just 96.7 points per game. 8* Minnesota

10* Under 76ers/Pistons (7:35 ET): Playing Under with both of these teams has brought me recent success. With Philadelphia, it was a game at San Antonio when they were held to only 86 pts on Thursday. With Detroit, it was Saturday's game w/ Indiana where they were held to just 84 points. Still though, there's further "regression to the mean" that's set to take place here as results for both teams have typically been higher scoring than expected over the last two weeks. The Sixers just gave up 125 points in a loss at Miami Saturday, their eighth Over in the last nine games. The Pistons had gone Over in seven straight before Saturday. Season-long results do not support the recent rash of Overs, on the either side, thus I'll be going Under again here.

Let it be noted that Philadelphia remains 30th (i.e. dead last) in the league in offensive efficiency. That's where they've been all season and the place they are likely to stay. They are the ONLY team in the league that does not average a full point per possession. Joel Embiid is again expected to be held out of the lineup tonight. Also possibly M.I.A. for Monday will be Jalil Okafor and Robert Covington. If all three are out, I'm simply not sure where the points will come from. Detroit is a pretty decent defensive team, holding visitors under 100 PPG at home this year. Of course, it also helps that they are 26th in pace of play. 

Similar to Philadelphia, the Pistons are not a great offensive team either. They often struggle to shoot the ball and are 27th in the league in terms of true shooting. In the last meeting with the Sixers, which took place here at home, they scored only 79 points. Philly, like Detroit, is a middle of the road team in terms of defensive efficiency. That last meeting, which took place back in December, was just the fifth win of the year for the Sixers. They shot 55% overall from the field including 7 of 17 from three-point range. I seriously doubt they'll be able to match those percentages tonight. This is another example of a game where the O/U line exceeds what both teams' total PPG average is for the season. It's a scenario I've been exploiting on a regular basis over the last several days. 10* Under 76ers/Pistons

9* St. Louis (7:05 ET): Truth be told, I'm not overly ecstatic about either of these teams' prospects in the second half of the season. Back when the Metropolitan Division appeared to be a five-horse race, I was consistently making the case that Philadelphia was a bit of a fraud. Yes, they did have that 10-game win streak. But take that away and the team would be under .500 w/ an even worse goal differential than they already have (currently -18). Over in the Western Conference, St. Louis is similarly fighting to remain relevant in the playoff discussion. But like Philly, they are currently on the outside looking in and have a negative goal differential. Why then back the Blues here, on the road no less? Well, the Flyers' inability to put the puck on net lately, let alone score, is a real problem.

Over its last five games, Philly is averaging a paltry 23.4 shots per game. The result of that is just eight goals scored. If this team isn't finding the back of the net w/ any kind of regularity, then they're in real trouble. That's because they have a save percentage below .900 for the year. Steve Mason is your likely starter between the pipes tonight and while he's been a little better of late, he was the one that allowed five goals on just 24 shots in the first meeting vs. St. Louis this year. That ended up being a 6-3 win for the Blues. Things were a lot lower scoring for the Flyers on Saturday as they fell to the Kings 1-0 in overtime. That was the second time in three games they failed to put more than 17 shots on goal. That was Michael Neuvirth in goal for that one. If by some chance he's the one that goes here, know that he still has the team's worst overall save percentage. 

Now, in the interest of full disclosure, St. Louis is the team w/ the worst overall save percentage in the league right now. They lost Brian Elliott in the offseason and ironically he's been a major disappointment for Calgary. While recent results leave a lot to be desired for the Blues, note they've played a pretty challenging schedule, one that included Washington, Minnesota and Pittsburgh twice. They did shut the Penguins out (in Pittsburgh!), but then lost to them 4-1 on Saturday. One area where the Blues potentially have a big edge tonight is on special teams as they are a top 10 team on the power play and penalty kill. They are also 10th in the league in goals per game. 9* St. Louis

10* Rider (7:00 ET): This is a revenge spot for MAAC-leader Monmouth. But because of that, the spread is inflated. The Hawks haven't fared too well on the conference road thus far, going 1-3 ATS w/ the one cover being a four-point win at Canisius. Of course, they also didn't fare well the first matchup vs. Rider (back on New Year's Eve) when they lost 93-90 as 14-pt home favorites. That was an overtime game that saw Monmouth fall behind by 13 at the half. They would go on to lose their next game as well (at St. Peter's), but have since won nine in a row. Still though, this line is clearly inflated if you use the number from the first meeting as our baseline. Rider certainly won't be lacking for motivation here either as they lost by 21 to Iona on Friday. Take the points here.

Elsewhere on Friday, Monmouth avenged its only other MAAC loss from this season. They faced St. Peter's in a situation similar to this, only at home and the number certainly appeared to be more advantageous from their perspective. I took the bait and was let down as the Hawks only prevailed 71-70 (were -8.5) and needed OT to do so. While they initially raced out to 14-2, Monmouth struggled from that point forward, letting St. Peter's tie the game by halftime. They even faced an eight-point deficit w/ just over six minutes remaining. While this is the Hawks' second nine-game win streak of the season, note the program has NEVER won 10 consecutive games.

The first time these teams matched up, Rider definitely benefited from catching Monmouth at the right time. The Hawks were off a high-profile game vs. North Carolina where they were blown out 102-74 and thus more ripe to be upset. Rider pulled off the SU dog win by outscoring the Hawks 41-28 in the first half and holding them to 38.9% shooting for the game. For tonight's rematch, another break may have already gone Rider's way as Monmouth's second leading scorer Micah Seaborn (15.4 PPG) injured his knee on Friday and may not play here. Though they average plenty of points, Monmouth is hardly a great shooting team (42.9%). Rider was on the wrong side of a pretty massive shooting discrepancy Friday vs. Iona, but the Broncs are also a perfect 3-0 ATS this season after allowing 80+ pts last game. I'd be a bit surprised if Rider pulled out another SU dog win at Monmouth's expense here, but the number is generous. 10* Rider

10* Atlanta (6:30 ET): For once, we have actually have the two best teams in the league in the Super Bowl. Both the Patriots and Falcons have rolled in getting here, producing the league's two biggest scoring differentials in the regular season and then a pair of playoff routs. New England is an incredible 15-3 ATS and has lost only one time since Tom Brady returned to the lineup in Week 5. They essentially drew a "double bye" into the AFC Championship Game as not only were they off for the Wild Card Round, but Houston was simply no match in the Divisional Round. Then, in the AFC Championship Game, they do what they always do - and that's blowout Pittsburgh. Atlanta, whose offense leads the league at 34.4 PPG, blew through both Seattle and Green Bay w/ incredible ease in the NFC side of the draw. They beat those two foes by a combined 39 points, scoring almost at will. While I agree the Falcons should be underdogs here, I believe getting a full field goal w/ this offense is too good to pass up. I'll take the points. 

I was on Atlanta in both playoff wins, so perhaps I'm a bit biased. But, man, they sure did make it look easy against two top tier opponents. Granted, Seattle was w/o Earl Thomas, but Matt Ryan & company shredded what has long considered to be one of the top defenses in the league. In the NFC Championship Game, Green Bay came in as hot as any team in the league. The Falcons destroyed them in a game that was never really close. Two plays into the second half, they'd scored 31 points and from there, pretty much coasted. If anything, their 493 total yds gained UNDERSELLS the job they did. This is an offense that averaged 6.7 yards per play during the regular season w/ the highest number of 20+ yd plays as well. Also, the Falcons' YPP differential of +1.1 was by far and away the best in the league. It was a half yard better than the #2 team in that category. While that may not sound like much, that gap was larger than the #2 and #12 team. 

New England's defense comes in ranked #1 in the league in scoring, but they have faced nothing like Ryan this season. In fact, they have faced one of the weakest slates of QB's I have seen in some time. Prior to facing Ben Roethlisberger in the AFC Championship Game, these were the last eight QB's they'd faced: Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Fitzpatrick (twice), Jared Goff, Joe Flacco, Trevor Siemian and Matt Moore. While the Pats offense is no "chopped liver," they are not as prolific as Atlanta and I look for the Falcons to bring a ton of pressure on Super Sunday. Atlanta's defense has been a lot better in the two playoff games and was able to shutdown Aaron Rodgers by bringing pressure. They can do the same to Tom Brady. I don't think that "having been here before" is that big of an edge for the Pats, whose largest SB margin of victory is four points in a game they probably should have lost (Seattle). 10* Atlanta

10* Under Patriots/Falcons (6:30 ET): The Under is never the popular side when it comes to betting the total, but for this year's Super Bowl, it figures to be REALLY unpopular. New England and Atlanta are a combined 4-0 Over this postseason and the Falcons, driven by the league's top offense, have gone Under in only two games all season. The game is being played indoors. That all being said, I'm still going Under here. Remember; I had the Over in the AFC Champ Game. I also had Atlanta in the NFC Champ Game and certainly have a ton of respect for their offense. I just think that a neutral setting where a slow offensive start on both sides is likely, this number is a bit too high. It's the highest in SB history, as you've probably heard. But only eight Super Bowls in history have seen at least 60 total pts scored. That includes just one of the past 12! Take the Under. 

Atlanta went 5-1 ATS as an underdog during the regular season, winning four of those games outright. But interestingly, that sextet produced their three lowest scoring games of the year and both Unders. The Over was 10-0 in final season of the Georgia Dome, but "just" 5-2-1 on the road. Interestingly, not only did the Falcons average 3.5 PPG less on the road offensively, they also give up 3.3 PPG fewer on the road as well. They just held Seattle and Green Bay to 20 and 21 pts respectively. A Packers offense that had been shredding everyone coming into the NFC Champ Game was shutout in the first half. The amount of pressure that Dan Quinn's defense has been bringing has been key during the playoff run. If there's been one "commonality" in beating Tom Brady through the years, it's bringing pressure. 

The Patriots lead the league in scoring defense at 15.7 PPG. While I happen to think that number is a bit "phony" in the sense that they've faced a poor slate of quarterbacks, the fact remains that they have allowed more than 24 points in a game just twice all year! Over the L5 wks, they've allowed an average of just 10.6 PPG or 53 points TOTAL. They've allowed 17 pts or less in eight of the last nine games and 13 times total this year. While I don't think for a second they can be that stifling here, certainly it's a better defense than what Atlanta saw against Green Bay in the NFC Champ Game or possibly even against Seattle, who was w/o Earl Thomas. Again, do not be surprised if a slow start to this game is what keeps it Under. All the pomp and circumstance surrounding the Super Bowl can be a distraction to both sides. 10* Under Patriots/Falcons

8* California (4:30 ET): It appears as if you have to be a pretty good team to beat Cal. Their last four losses have come against Virginia, Arizona, UCLA and Oregon. Sunday's opponent, Colorado, is not at that level. Yes, the Bears did lose earlier in the year to San Diego State and Seton Hall. But those were neutral site games. Here in Berkeley, the team is 13-2 SU w/ an avg MOV of +12 points per game. The only two home losses came to Virginia and Arizona by a combined nine points. It was a double overtime win here on Thursday (over Utah) and while that can take a lot out of a team, the fact that Colorado is playing its second road game of the weekend mitigates that. I can't see the Buffaloes pulling back to back upsets (won at Stanford on Thurs). Lay the points.

I really like this Cal team. Even though it was a double overtime game Thursday, they never trailed Utah by more than three points. The Utes came in shooting a Pac 12 best 53.9% from the field, but Cal held them to just 41.5%. It was just the second game all year that the Bears were outrebounded. I do not think it's going to happen in B2B games. Ivan Rabb now has 11 double-doubles and the Bears blocked nine shots against Utah. There should be a massive edge inside for the home team in this game. By the way, Colorado is just 1-11 SU all-time in Berkeley. While just 1-5 ATS the L6 games, Cal has won all but one of those straight up, a visit to an Oregon team that has not lost a home game all season. Defensively, the Bears have a massive edge in this game. They allow only 59.9 PPG at home while Colorado allows 80.4 PPG on the road.

Colorado is just 3-6 SU in "true" road games this year. They upset Stanford on Thursday despite a season-high 23 turnovers and making just one field goal over the final six minutes. That actually made it B2B upsets as they shocked Oregon last week in Boulder. This three-game win streak looks "nice and shiny," but remember that the Buffs opened Pac 12 play 0-7. With a tough three-game road trip looming, this is almost a "must-win" for Cal. I feel they're going to dominate the inside and score at will this afternoon. At the same time, Colorado is due to regress after pulling off a pair of upsets. 8* California

10* Under Clippers/Celtics (2:05 ET): There's been a real uptick in scoring in Clippers games recently. As a result, the last five have all gone Over the total. But I do believe we're about to see some regression to the mean. Looking at the L5 games, they are averaging 113.4 points per game. That's above their season long average of 108.4. Remember that they are still w/o Chris Paul. But defensively is where the real discrepancy lies. The L5 games they've allowed an average of 123.4 PPG. This is well above their season-long average of 104.7 PPG. The number is obviously skewed by the fact they got torched, not once but twice, by Golden State. Boston is prolific, but not that prolific. Take the Under Sunday afternoon.

After giving up 144 pts the first time vs. Golden State, the Clippers allowed 133 more Thursday. The Warriors shot 62% and 52% in the two games. There was a time when LA actually led the league in defensive efficiency. That time is obviously long gone, but they still rank in the top half of the league. The bottom line here is that I can't help but think the defensive numbers will start to improve, if only because they "have" to. Meanwhile, without Paul, I think the offense is going to struggle. Paul was #1 in the league in RPM (Real Plus-Minus) and worth, on average, over nine points per 100 possessions. The team is 5-1 Under this year when playing w/ exactly two days rest. 

Boston has also been on a scoring binge of late. They will typically allow around 105 PPG, a number they've been at consistently of late (108, 109, 104, 107 L4 games). I played the Under in the last game and while it got a little too "close for comfort" at the end, it did hit against the Lakers. The Celtics are more likely to start to see a decrease in production offensively as the L5 games have seen them at 115 PPG, which is roughly seven points higher than their season average. This coincides w/ the likely Clippers defensive improvement. Both teams rank near the middle in terms of pace of play. With the increase in scoring we've seen across the league this year, we're starting to see O/U lines that are starting to get too high. Neither of these teams' total PPG average exceeds what the O/U line is here. 10* Under Clippers/Celtics

8* NY Rangers (2:05 ET): While they did beat Ottawa in their final game before the All-Star Break, Calgary experienced a pretty ugly end to it's first half of the season. They went into the Break as losers of six of seven while giving up a ton of goals in the process. The second half, so far, has gone a lot better. They beat the Wild 5-1 (good win!) Wednesday and then took care of the Devils on Friday. But this East Coast trip is about to get a lot tougher w/ visits to New York and Pittsburgh in the next three days. The Rangers await them this afternoon and the Blueshirts are a fourth-place team in name only. This team has one of the top five goal differentials in the sport and I believe them to be a great value on the money line tonight.

Though on a three-game win streak, the Flames have still been outscored this year. Two of the three wins came in overtime, the last one over a bad team (New Jersey). They have done a good job at outshooting opponents recently, but I still have my concerns over the goaltending. It's likely to be Chad Johnson between the pipes today. Over his L4 starts, his save percentage is an unfathomably bad .791. For much of the year though, he's actually been the "go-to guy" as Brian Elliott has been a major free agent disappointment. This is going to be a tough assignment for Johnson as the Rangers rank #2 in the league in goals per game.

The Rangers scored four times on 28 shots when they visited Calgary earlier in the year and I anticipate something similar here. Like Calgary, they are off an OT win (Buffalo). Curiously, there have been issues winning on home ice lately, but this team is too good not to get that rectified. Generally speaking, New York has cleaned up against the weaker West this year, going 15-5 in non-conference games. Over the L3 games, they've put a total of 115 shots on goal. Henrik Lundqvist has been a lot better of late (.932 save percentage L4 starts) as well. As I said earlier, this is a good value on the superior team at home. 8* NY Rangers

8* Hawaii (10:30 ET): The Warriors may be in the second game of a back to back, and off an upset, but they're getting far too many points tonight at Cal State Northridge. The host Matadors have won three consecutive games, oddly as 1-pt favorites every time, but this price range is a bit of rarefied air for them. Only twice all season have they been asked to lay this many points and both times they failed; home games against Idaho State and UC Riverside. Thus, I'll look past what is typically an unfavorable situation for Hawaii as I think they're getting enough help from the oddsmakers to make this a winning ticket. Take the points.

Believe it or not, but Hawaii has played only THREE "true" road games so far. Thursday was their first win as they went to UC Riverside as 3.5-pt dogs and won outright, 72-63. It was their second consecutive win after routing UC Santa Barbara at home last Saturday by a score of 78-56. Three of the team's four Big West losses this year have been by six points or less. The only bad one was to UC Irvine, who is easily the top team in this league. Thursday saw the Warriors jump up to a huge 20-point halftime lead and then coast in the second half. They have already beating Northridge once this year, 80-77 as 2.5-point home favorites. It was pretty remarkable that they were able to win despite a -16 disadvantage in FT attempts.

CS Northridge is not a good defensive team as they allow over 81 points per game. That makes them pretty unappealing as a favorite right there. They are off a wild 108-98 win over Long Beach State Thursday, their 1st game hitting triple digits on the scoreboard since a double overtime loss in 2014. The Matadors do lead the conference in points per game, but at "only" 79.1. They had trouble getting stops in the season's 1st meeting vs. Hawaii and are 1-9 ATS this year coming off a game where they allowed 80+ points. The Matadors are not only 6-17 ATS seeking revenge for a road loss, but also only 1-6 ATS at home this year. 8* Hawaii

8* Minnesota (10:05 ET): Thanks to being the road team, the Wild are available at a pretty cheap price on Saturday night. They're off a loss too; to a Calgary team that has strangely had their number. But one loss does not change my view that this is CLEARLY the best team the Western Conference has to offer. The "proof is in the pudding" and that pudding happens to be goal differential, a metric where the Wild are +50, more than double every other team in the Conference. The opponent tonight is Vancouver. Despite a winning record in regulation, the Canucks have one of the worst goal differential in the league (-24) and I believe are no match for this superior opponent. Look for Minnesota to end its trek through Western Canada by picking up the two points.

Perhaps the most shocking thing to come out of the Wild's 5-1 loss at Calgary Wednesday night was the play of Devan Dubnyk, who allowed all five goals in a rare off-night. Minnesota was previously 12-0-2 its last 14 road games. Dubnyk, the league-leader in both save percentage and goals against average going into that game, had been between the pipes for nine of those wins. I'll chalk it up to some rust as it was his first start after the All-Star Break, so he was coming off a bit of a layoff. A pair of early power play goals were what did the Wild in there. The good news is Minnesota is 3-0 this season when coming off a loss by 2+ goals. It's pretty amazing that there have been only three games where the team has lost by two or more goals. I expect a complete return to form this evening.

Vancouver is not prolific offensively as they rank 27th in the league in goals per game and 28th on the power play. So, good luck solving Dubnyk, who has a .939 save percentage on the road still. The Canucks have played only once since the Break and it did not go well as they fell 4-1 to San Jose, here on home ice. That came after being shut out in the final game before the Break, 3-0 by sorry Arizona. The fact they have allowed 30 or more shots in six consecutive games does not bode well either. 8* Minnesota

10* Charlotte (9:05 ET): What has happened to the Hornets? They've totally lost their sting, that's for sure, as the team comes into Saturday on a six-game losing skid. Though it should be noted that two of the losses came to Golden State, there is no denying that Charlotte is going through its roughest patch of the season. However, despite now being four games below .500 and tied for 8th in the Eastern Conference, they actually still own the fifth best point differential in the East. Tonight may seem like a tough task at Utah, especially if Kemba Walker (illness) can't go. But I believe the Hornets find a way to at least stay within the number. Utah isn't exactly a team built to blow out opponents by large margins. Take the points. 

The Jazz, like Charlotte, have had the last two days off. Unlike the Hornets, they are off a win. They beat Milwaukee, here at home, 104-88 as eight-point chalk. But prior to that, they'd dropped three of four straight up and were just 1-7 against the spread in their last eight. Going back further, they are only 4-11 ATS L15. Defensively, Utah is among the very best teams in the league (3rd in efficiency) and holds foes to an average of just 93.3 PPG at home. But they're also one of the few teams that doesn't average 100 PPG. In the role of favorite, the team is simply less appealing, particularly this price range. We also know that they will be w/o Rodney Hood, who is out w/ a knee injury.

Charlotte will be w/o Cody Zeller and that's meant bad news in the past. They are an ugly 1-11 SU when their starting center is out of the lineup this year. But help has arrived in the form of Miles Plumlee, who is scheduled to make his Hornets debut here. With or without Walker, the team's defense can't be any worse than it was against the Warriors on Wednesday. They allowed 21 three-pointers in that game, something Utah is simply not capable of doing. I just think the Hornets are a lot better than what they've been showing of late. They did beat Utah early in the year, at home. 10* Charlotte

10* Under Pistons/Pacers (7:05 ET): Detroit went Over the total again last night. It was their seventh consecutive time doing so. The final result was 116-108, in their favor, at home against Minnesota. It was their second win in a row as they have now fought their way back into a tie for the coveted eighth spot in an admittedly weak Eastern Conference. One of the teams they find themselves competing with for a playoff spot is Indiana. The Pacers have won five straight, including 106-97 over Brooklyn last night. Two familiar opponents, both playing the second game of a back to back, sounds like an Under in my book. That's the way I'm playing this one. 

The Pistons' scoring, as you might have guessed, has been way up of late. Over the L5 games, they are averaging 110 PPG, which is nearly a 10 PPG increase from their overall season average. There was a time, not too long ago, that this was one of the few teams in the league not to be scoring nor allowing 100 PPG. This streak has changed that. I've mentioned this before in a previous writeup, but in terms of "true" shooting (which weighs 3-pt and FT shooting), Detroit is typically among the worst teams in the league. Currently, they are tied for 27th in that department, even after this stretch of increased scoring. The Pistons are also allowing more points per game than per usual. The L5 games has seen them give up an average of 108.8, which is roughly seven more points per game than the season average.

Indiana just won a pair of road games against bad teams, holding them both under 100 points. Last night was a win in Brooklyn (where I had the Nets +7.5 and they came up just short). Needless to say, going from the Nets to any other opponent (save for maybe the Lakers) means a tougher defense. Speaking of defense, the Pacers did a good job last night in holding the Nets to just 37.2% shooting. Another notable difference between this game and last night (from Indiana's perspective) will be pace of play. Brooklyn actually leads the league in that department. Detroit is 26th. So this game should be played at a much slower pace w/ fewer possessions. This is the highest O/U line of the three meetings so far between these division rivals. Detroit is 6-2 Under in the second game of a back to back. 10* Under Pistons/Pacers

10* UAB (4:00 ET): The Blazers just lost (on the road) to a bad UTEP team Thursday night, but will get a chance to bounce back here against one of C-USA's other bottom-feeders, that being UTSA. Given the events of 48 hours ago, UAB is now available at a far cheaper price than they ought to be. Prior to losing at UTEP, they had won seven of eight. Meanwhile, UTSA has lost four in a row. Thursday brought their first home loss of the year, to Middle Tennessee, but this may be viewed as  a bit of a letdown spot by the players after hosting the league's top team. They even had a lead at halftime, but obviously could not hold on. I think it will be tough for the players to get over that disappointment. UAB is 6-2 ATS off a SU loss. Lay the points. 

UAB also enjoyed a halftime lead in their previous game, only to come up short. In their case, they held UTEP to only 19 first half points. But a key 14-2 second run by the Miners totally changed the game and UAB could not recover. It was a rare off night from the floor for the Blazers, who shot just 39.3% for the game, including 6 of 20 from three-point range. They also certainly did not help themselves from the FT line where they went just 9 of 18. That's a killer in what ended up being a four-point loss. I anticipate UAB's shooting will improve dramatically here as in each of the six games previous to the loss to UTEP, they were above 50% from the field. They are also normally a very good FT shooting team (76%); in fact, they are 20th in the country at the charity stripe! 

UTSA does well defensively, at least at home (61.4 PPG allowed), but struggles offensively. They are 325th nationally in scoring offense and 341st in FG%. The Roadrunners have been below 40% from the field in five straight games. While they've got the nice home record, most of the wins were close. They come into today off four straight double digit losses, a streak which began w/ one of the ugliest performances of this entire NCAAB season, that being a 59-39 loss at UTEP. I feel that given the disparate ways these two teams shoot the ball, there's a reciepe for a blowout here. Something that's also benefited UTSA at home this year is opponents are only making 63.4% of foul shots. That cannot possibly continue. 10* UAB

10* Ohio (12:00 ET): The number of teams still w/o a conference loss continues to dwindle and THREE such teams will be an underdog on Saturday. The first is Akron, who visits MAC East rival Ohio. These teams have already met once this season w/ the Zips (obviously) winning 83-68 as six-point favorites. Since then, their cushion in the division has grown to four full games as Ohio has lost two more times, including their last time out as they fell 90-85 at Western Michigan on Tuesday. That game saw the Bobcats blow a 21-pt lead (were up 10 w/ just over 5 mins remaining). As heartbreaking a defeat as that may be, I expect OU to get over it quickly in this revenge spot. Lat the points. 

Ohio has not been the same since losing Antonio Campbell for the year. The senior forward was leading the team in scoring (16.4 PPG). All four league losses have come since the injury. But they've also managed to win big at both Northern Illinois and Bowling Green w/o him. Plus, they did lead WMU big on the road. The Bobcats did not have him the first time they faced Akron, so it's not as if they will have to make up lost production. They've also shot the ball at 50% or better in each of the L3 games. Here in Athens, they're 9-2 SU and holding teams to just 61.9 points per game. Those two home losses have been by a combined seven points. They happen to be the last two home games they've played. So, that's another reason motivation will be high here.

Akron could also be w/o a key contributor Saturday afternoon. Michael Hughes is listed as questionable. Even with him, the Zips have been a pretty lucky team this season. Their luck rating at KenPom is actually second highest in the country, trailing only Sam Houston State. What do I mean by that? Well, for starters, they have a ton of close wins. Six by five points or less to be exact. Five of those took place in January, including the last two times they've been in action. Last Saturday, they squeaked by Buffalo by a single point, 91-90 as 7.5-pt chalk. They won that game via two free throws in the final seconds. Then on Tuesday, they had to rally back from a 14-point halftime deficit to win at Northern Illinois, 76-73. So we have a team off a huge come from behind victory visiting a team that just blew a huge lead and lost its previous game. With this also being the second of B2B road games for Akron, it's tough to like them in this spot. Ohio is 29-11 ATS its L40 games as a home favorite of three points or less. Akron goes down for the 1st time in MAC play. 10* Ohio

8* Under Lakers/Celtics (8:05 ET): This matchup no longer means what it once did, but for some reason the game is on ESPN anyway. The announcers figure to spend more time talking about Magic and Bird than the players actually on the court. While that can get a bit nauseating, this one does figure to turn into a blowout, at least if you believe the oddsmakers. Boston is a big double digit fave here as the Lakers are playing the second game of a back to back. The Celtics are not a team I'm willing to endorse in this price range, so instead let's look at a total which I believe is too high. Are the Lakers bad defensively? Sure they are. But they're not that good offensively either and I see this one staying Under a very high total. 

Looking at Boston, you can expect them to probably give up around 105 points here. That their season long average. But I'm going to call for a decrease in offensive production, even though they are facing the #30 team in defensive efficiency. Over the L5 games, the Celtics have averaged 116.4 PPG. That's well above their season average of 108.2. Looking back, they've been held under 106 only one time since Christmas. That's really impressive, but the total here is still too high. The only time the Celtics have seen an O/U line of more than 220 since X-Mas was against Houston and that game (barely) stayed Under.

Like the Celtics, the Lakers recent defensive efforts have been right in line w/ their season long average. They give up a little more than 110 PPG. But offensively, they've been averaging only 97.4 points the L5 games and sadly they don't even average over 100 PPG on the road for the year. They did score 108 last night in Washington, but I don't see them getting to that number here. They do catch a break in that Boston is likely to be w/o Avery Bradley again. 8* Under Lakers/Celtics

10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): The Nets are not a good basketball team, so why the endorsement here? Well, this is the second time in a row we find the Pacers laying points on the road. The first saw them outlast Orlando Wednesday night, 98-88. I admit that I was on the Magic there, but the longview says Indiana isn't likely to keep covering away from home. They are still just 8-15 - both SU and ATS - on the road this year. They're home tomorrow night for a game w/ Detroit and could be looking ahead. Also, they've been able to pull out some lucky wins of late. Not saying Brooklyn wins here but they will keep it within the margin that the oddsmakers are calling for. Take the points. 

The Nets have won just 1 of their last 19 games. So why do I think they have a chance here? Well, in addition to Indiana's road woes, the Nets have been fairly competitive of late. Four of their last five losses have come by eight points or less. Against the Knicks on Wednesday, they led most of the way before blowing the game late. They jumped out to a 27-15 first half lead and led for the first three quarters. The 38 points allowed in the first half marked a season-low. It's somewhat cruel that a team known for playing bad defense still couldn't get the job done even when holding the opponent to 35.4% shooting. Typically, Brooklyn can score. Tonight, I think they can take advantage of an Indiana team that allows nearly 110 PPG on the road.

Prior to beating Orlando two nights ago, the Pacers were just 1-6 SU/ATS as road favorites. Suffice to say, this will be the most points they've been asked to lay in any road game this season. Earlier in the year, they came to Brooklyn as six-point favorites and lost the game outright. Consider that there have been eight times this season when the Nets have lost a game where they blew a double digit lead. They do play at the league's fastest pace, so they have that going for them. Indiana recently won a couple of games it probably didn't deserve to, including an overtime game against Sacramento last Friday. Probably time to "sell high" on this group. 10* Brooklyn

10* NY Islanders (7:35 ET): Over the All-Star Break, I assessed each conference to deduce which teams are most likely to make the playoffs. In the East, these seven seem like safe bets: Washington, Pittsburgh, Columbus, Rangers, Montreal, Ottawa and Toronto. That leaves one Wild Card spot remaining. To me, it's likely to go to one of two teams - the Islanders or Boston. The Isles dug themselves a pretty sizable early hole, but they've climbed out of it by winning six of seven, the last three over Washington, Montreal and Columbus. This streak now has the YTD goal differential in the black. Tonight, they hit the road, but against a team who I feel is going "nowhere fast." That being the Detroit Red Wings, who are in last place in the Atlantic Division.

The Red Wings currently find themselves trending in the exact opposite direction of the Islanders. They've lost five in a row and have given up four goals in each of the last three. They've played just one game since the Break, Tuesday, and lost 4-3 at home to the lowly Devils. That's not a good sign to be giving up that number of goals to an offensively inept team like New Jersey. That came after being shutout in two of the previous game. Were it not for a league-best 6-0 record in shootouts, things would be even more dire in the Motor City right now and that's saying a lot considering the team has the fewest number of points in the Eastern Conference. They are ranked dead last in the league on the power play and goaltending continues to be a concern w/o Jimmy Howard.

The Islanders have also been off since Tuesday. Their last regulation loss came all the way back on January 14th. While the road generally hasn't been as kind to them, the Isles do have a hot goaltender in Thomas Greiss, whose save percentage in his L4 starts is .934. This has been a playoff team each of the previous two years, so I was really surprised at the slow start. They have averaged an impressive 34.8 shots on goal the L5 games. This is also a revenge spot as the Isles lost at home to the Red Wings back in early December (in OT). I see these teams continuing to trend in very opposite directions after tonight. 10* NY Islanders

10* Monmouth (7:00 ET): Though they've won eight straight and are seemingly in control of their conference, don't expect any kind of letdown from MAAC leader Monmouth in this situation. That's because they're matched up w/ the last team to beat them, St. Peter's. When these schools met back on January 2nd, the Peacocks prevailed 71-61 as 5.5-pt home dogs. That result left Monmouth at 0-2 in conference play. It was a bad shooting night for the Hawks, who scored only 19 points in first half en route to what still stands as their lowest scoring output in conference play this season. St. Peter's has remained formidable, especially when taking points, but tonight should be Monmouth's night to garner revenge. Lay the points.

Like I alluded to, St. Peter's has been really strong at the betting window. They've gone 9-2 ATS L11 and since the upset of Monmouth, their only three SU losses have come by 2, 2 and 3 points. But tonight is their third consecutive road game and they are off a loss, at Iona, on Sunday. That was an overtime game as well and saw the Peacocks fail to get the job done defensively. Iona made 13 of 23 three-pointers and that's something to keep an eye on here as Monmouth makes an average of nine shots per game from behind the arc. I'm pretty surprised to see St. Peter's doing this well in conference play considering nationally they rank outside the top 300 in points, rebounds and assists per game! It should be noted that the L2 times the Peacocks have been on a three-game ATS win streak (as they are here), they've failed to cover the next time out. 

Monmouth is 10-1 SU at home and averaging 86 PPG. Last time here, they set the school record for points scored in a single game w/ 95 in a beatdown of Quinnipiac. That was their second straight home victory scoring 90 or more points. Monday, they poured in 83 in a double digit win at Marist. Overall, the team has won four in a row by double digits. There's some definite value here considering the Hawks were favored by 5.5 at St. Peter's last month. While they actually trailed Marist at the half Monday, I'm not too concerned given that Monmouth should shoot a lot better than 40% here. They did score 56 pts in the second half. Again, this figures to be one that the Hawks have had circled on their calendar for some time. They'll take no mercy. 10* Monmouth

8* Chicago (9:05 ET): This is a big mismatch here with the Blackhawks facing the Coyotes. Yes, Chicago has lost three in row. They returned from the All-Star Break by losing 3-1 at San Jose. But Arizona is a team they should certainly have little trouble with. The 'Yotes also lost their first game after the break, 3-2 to Los Angeles, but unlike the 'Hawks this season is already over for them. Only Colorado has fewer points than Arizona, who ranks both 29th in goals scored and allowed. Their -45 goal differential is double that of all but two teams. Chicago got a break last night w/ Minnesota losing and must take advantage.

With the Wild's loss Wednesday, the Blackhawks still are only six points back in the Central. Yes, I've previously made the case that Minnesota is much better than Chicago this year (look at the respective goal differentials!), but that doesn't mean the Blackhawks still can't beat up on a clearly inferior foe. Chicago is 6-1 its last seven meetings vs. Arizona, including 3-0 here in the desert. Earlier this year, at home, they shut them out 4-0. 

Arizona gave up a ton of shots to the Kings (39) Tuesday night, which has been a problem all season, regardless of opponent. As a result, goaltending has been an issue. Mike Smith figures to start again tonight. While he's been better recently, that play can only last so long given the number of shots he's likely to face here. In each of the previous four meetings, Chicago has scored a minimum of four times every time out vs. Arizona. Their own goaltender, Corey Crawford, is a good "buy low" candidate right now. 8* Chicago

10* Under Sixers/Spurs (8:35 ET): Philadelphia has gone Over in seven straight games following last night's 113-95 loss at Dallas. I say that it's time for that streak to end. The Sixers still rank dead last in the league in offense efficiency and here will be taking one of the top defensive teams in the league. Philly is currently the only team in the league not to be averaging a full point per possession. San Antonio is third in the league in defensive efficiency. I see the home team putting the clamps down in this one, but at the same time not scoring a ton either. Take the Under. 

After losing B2B games as favorites (to Dallas and New Orleans), the Spurs held Oklahoma City to 94 points Tuesday in a much-needed win. At home, they are holding opponents to just 97.8 PPG this year. OKC was held to just 35.3% shooting and turned the ball over 20 times. Granted, the Thunder are no longer what they once were offensively, but they're still eons ahead of Philadelphia. Also, the Sixers have benefited from facing a lot of subpar defensive foes recently. The Spurs are second in the league in points allowed. Again, Philly couldn't even break 100 against Dallas last night.

Without Joel Embiid, the task is even tougher here for the 76ers. The presumptive rookie of the year has missed six of the last seven games w/ a knee injury. Granted they were a much worse team last year, but in the two meetings w/ San Antonio, the Sixers scored only 83 and 68 points. This is a pretty high total from both team's perspective. Furthermore, Philly is 9-2 Under its L11 games as a road dog of 15.5 to 18 points. 10* Under Sixers/Spurs

10* Fairfield (8:00 ET): The opening suggested that these two MAAC teams are relatively even, but I don't believe that to be the case. Sure, Fairfield had its share of struggles in January. At one point, they'd lost five in a row, clearly bottoming out w/ a 42-point loss at Monmouth on 1.22. But since then, the Stags have rallied for B2B victories, both here at home. The last one came by 29 points, Tuesday vs. Manhattan. Niagara is also off a win, 80-67 over Rider on Saturday, but the Purple Eagles now find themselves on the road. That's a place they haven't been too often recently, in fact, only one of their previous six games took place on the road. This is a small number and Fairfield is already 5-1 ATS this season when taking on a team w/ a losing record. Lay the points. 

This is the first meeting of the season between these two. Fairfield swept last year while Niagara did the same in 2015. While the visitors come into this game having won three of four, two of the wins required late rallies. On 1.21, Niagara scored the game's final six points to beat St. Peter's by two. Then on Saturday, they closed on a 24-9 run to get by Rider, 80-67. That marked the Purple Eagles' largest margin of victory in a MAAC game this year. They benefited by Rider shooting only 36.8% for the game. I expect them to struggle defensively in this game, given that they allow 77.7 PPG for the season. They are just 2-9 SU on the road as well. 

As mentioned above, Fairfield also rolled to victory in their last game. They held Manhattan to only 25% shooting in a 78-49 win Tuesday. While it's a quick turnaround here for the Stags, I expect them to keep rolling at home. Saturday, they beat Marist here by double digits as well. At home, the Stags do a great job of defending the three-point line as they allow just 26.9% shooting from behind the arc. 10* Fairfield

10* South Florida (7:00 ET): USF got absolutely rocked in its last game, losing by 41 to the best team in the American, Cincinnati. Thus, it was a given that the number would be inflated for their next game (and it is) as they return home to host Memphis. Memphis is not as good as Cincinnati and while USF certainly has plenty of ground to make up after Saturday, this is a good value. Yes, I realize the Bulls have yet to win a single conference game this season and are averaging less than 60 PPG in AAC play. But Memphis seems unworthy of this price range, given their defensive struggles on the road and overall problems covering the spread (1-4-1 ATS L6). Take the points.

South Florida has already played Memphis tough once this year, losing by only six on the road. That game took place a little over two weeks ago and was a pretty ugly affair. Had USF gotten to the FT line more than SEVEN times, perhaps they could have pulled an outright upset. They held the Tigers to 35.1% shooting. Whatever offensive improvement we see from Memphis tonight will be mitigated on the defensive end. They are giving up 76.9 PPG on the road so far this season. They are just 2-2 in American road games w/ one of the wins by only a three-point margin. Even at home, they didn't shoot the ball well Saturday, making just over 30% of their shots in an ugly 57-50 win over East Carolina. 

Obviously, when a team is 0-9 SU in conference play, there aren't a ton of positives to report. But South Florida is third in the league in three-point percentage and they have outscored opponents by 86 points in the painted area. As hard as it is to win conference road games, this is just way too many points for a pedestrian team like Memphis to lay. 10* South Florida

8* Michigan State (7:00 ET): Believe it or not, Nebraska actually swept the season series from Michigan State last year. The two wins came by a combined three points, however. Still, that makes this a big double revenge spot for HC Izzo and Sparty, who could use the win anyway. This MSU team is not as strong as per usual. Their record is only 13-9 SU and prior to beating rival Michigan on Saturday, they had dropped three in a row. Of course, this is the time of year when the Spartans traditionally "turn it on." They've gone 10-3 ATS the L2 seasons in the month of February and I do believe they're catching Nebraska at an opportune time here. The Cornhuskers just upset Purdue here in Lincoln over the weekend, so they're likely in store for a letdown. 

Prior to that win over Purdue, Nebraska had really been struggling. They'd lost five straight, which makes MSU's three-game skid seem like "small potatoes" by comparison. Granted, two of those five Huskers losses were decided by a single point and were decided at the buzzer. But one came to lowly Rutgers. What went right for them against Purdue? Well, two players (Jack McVeigh and Jeriah Horne) came off the bench to score a total of 37 points, which was an unlikely boost. I don't think that duo can be counted on a nightly basis. While a couple of close games may not have gone Nebraska's way recently, note all four wins in Big 10 play have been by four points or less. Then there was last season's pretty fortuitous sweep of Michigan State. What I'm saying is that another close loss tonight would not surprise me. 

Michigan State is still considered a NCAA Tournament team, but a loss here could do some real damage to their resume. Like Nebraska, they were able to turn things around over the weekend. Unlike Nebraska, they did it w/ defense by holding the Wolverines to just 33.9% shooting for the game, including 7 of 26 from three-point range. This is still a top 50 defense in terms of efficiency, mind you. While MSU has lost nine times, it's not as if many of those defeats were bad losses. Five of them came at the hands of Arizona, Kentucky, Baylor, Duke and Purdue. Those are all top 20 teams. I just can't see a third consecutive loss to Nebraska taking place as I would have MSU as the slight favorite, even on the road. Revenge will be theirs. 8* Michigan State

8* Fresno State (10:00 ET): This is another revenge spot, for Fresno, as they lost to the Flyboys last month in Colorado Springs. What followed for the Bulldogs was an impressive three-game win streak, including victories over Boise State and Nevada. But that came to a halt Saturday night w/ a bit of a surprising loss at Utah State (were 2-pt favorites). Air Force has not played since last Tuesday when they shocked San Diego State 60-57. That, ironically, snapped a three-game losing streak and was their first win since beating Fresno State back on 1.11. I look for Fresno to get its revenge here as the home court advantage is a big deal, not only considering their own 9-1 SU home mark, but the fact Air Force is winless on the road. Lay the point. 

The home-road disparity has played itself out for FSU throughout conference play. They're 4-0 SU at home and 1-4 SU on the road. At home, they just seem to be a bit of a different team as they average 80.0 PPG on almost 49% shooting. That one MWC road win was a big one as it came at Nevada, giving them a season sweep of the Wolfpack, who are considered to be the best the conference has to offer. This has been a bit of a covering machine this season as they're 12-4 ATS overall and 5-1 at home. A bad shooting night (35%) of their own combined w/ hot shooting from the opponent (56%) is what doomed them Saturday in Logan. But I don't see Air Force being able to create the same kind of disparity that Utah State did. Certainly not on the road. 

The Falcons have lost all eight times they've venture off campus this year, including six "true" road games. In the process, they are giving up an average of more than 81 PPG. It's a real stark contrast between home and away as in Colorado Springs they're outscoring opponents by double digits while on the road they are being outscored by double digits. The season best effort on the defensive end against SDSU last week isn't likely to be duplicated here as the Falcons are just 3-10 ATS the L3 seasons after allowing 60 pts or less the previous game. I also think the week off can hinder more than help. Just look at FSU, who was in the same spot on Saturday (also coming off an upset). Though the AFA has covered 8 of the past 10 matchups vs. Fresno, the Bulldogs have still won eight of those straight up. 8* Fresno State

9* Over Wild/Flames (10:05 ET): To this handicapper, Minnesota enters the second half of the NHL season as the best team in the Western Conference by leaps and bounds. While point-wise, they're not (yet) running away w/ things, their YTD goal differential indicates a clear superiority over the rest of the field. They've outscored foes by 54 goals in 49 games, which is more than double the differential of any other team in the conference. In fact, that's the best goal differential in the entire league right now. Last night's 5-2 win at Edmonton coupled w/ a Washington loss gave them that honor. While this is a team on a roll, I feel that the Over is the best bet in this matchup.

Dubnyk is the driving force behind the Wild having allowed the second fewest number of goals in the league currently. He leads the league in goals against average (1.88) and save percentage (.936), so if he keeps it up, the Vezina Trophy should be coming to his house. He also has five shutouts. But my concern w/ Dubnyk is that he faces too many shots on a per game basis (Wild allow 34.2 per game on the road). Also, Calgary has the unique distinction of having gotten to him twice (2-0!) this season.

Minnesota scored five times last night and in its last game before the Break. Thus, this probably seems like a really cheap price to lay. But they have struggled against Calgary so far this year. In fact, they're 0-2 against them, including one shutout loss. But both games came against Chad Johnson and here they'll see the struggling Brian Elliott. Elliott has been a massive free agent disappointment w/ an .892 save percentage so far. 9* Over Wild/Flames

8* Under Clippers/Suns (9:05 ET): With Chris Paul out until March, it is not a good time in Clipper-land. The team was humiliated Saturday night at Golden State, giving up 144 points in a 46-point loss. Tonight may mark the end of a five-game trip that's seen them go 1-3 SU/ATS, but things get no easier moving forward. After this game vs. the lowly Suns, they have to play Golden State again. That will be their only home game between now and Feb 15 as they'll be emarking on a trip out East shortly. So winning this game seems imperative. However, while the Suns might be awful defensively, do the Clippers have the necessary horses to take advantage? Even w/ Blake Griffin back in the fold, I'm not so sure. Take the Under in this one.

Remember when the Clippers were leading the league in defensive efficiency? That time has long passed as they now rank 11th in that department following the debacle vs. Golden State. That said, any defensive assignment the rest of the way should be considered "small potatoes" compared to what the experienced Saturday night in Oakland. The Warriors shot 62% for the game, had two 40+ pt quarters, and made 17 three-pointers. Even though Phoenix may play at a similar speed to GSW, the results are almost never the same. The Suns are 21st in offensive efficiency and have shot better than 50% in only two of the past 10 games.

These teams met almost exactly one month ago and the Suns were held to just 98 points on 38.2% overall shooting that included a dreadful 2 of 15 from three-point range. The first half was actually pretty high scoring (Clips led 64-58), but things grinded to a half over the final 24 minutes. While Phoenix may not shoot the ball that poorly again, I'm not sure there's a justification for the increase in the O/U line now that the Clips are w/o Paul. Granted, the Suns are not good defensively, but they should be able to do an adequate enough job here. Both teams are on Over streaks, so that's a reason to look to go the other way as well. 8* Under Clippers/Suns

8* Duquesne (8:00 ET): The Dukes may very well always be a bottom tier team in the Atlantic 10, but tonight they're catching a nice number at home against a vulnerable St. Bonaventure squad. The Bonnies are off a loss at Rhode Island on Saturday and are now being asked to play B2B games on the road for the 1st time since conference play commenced. Duquesne, meanwhile, will just be happy to be back home following road losses to Davidson and Richmond last week. Each team's loss on Saturday can be explained by bad FG% numbers. St. Bonaventure shot just 29.5% against Rhose Island while Duquesne ALLOWED Richmond to shoot 53.4% (and gave up 101 pts in the process w/ no overtime). I feel Duquesne's defensive numbers are more likely to dramatically improve here than SBU's offensive numbers. Take the points. 

Scoring 90 points and not covering as a double digit dog is tough to do in this spot, but Duquesne pulled off the feat on Saturday. It was their fifth loss in a row and seventh in the last eight games. Making matters more frustrating from Saturday's ATS loss is that the Dukes actually led outright, 57-52, early in the second half! It also didn't help that Richmond essentially doubled them up at the free throw, which was key in the result at the betting window. While the conference record obviously isn't good, it's not like the Dukes were favored to win many of these games (only one, vs. St. Louis, whom they beat). It also hasn't helped that they've had to play most of the top teams in the conference. Overall, they've remained competitive as they're only being outscored by 3.0 PPG for the year.

While 13-7 SU overall, St. Bonaventure's margins of victory have tended to be razor thin. Their most impressive work of the year came at neutral settings. Take those six games away and they're winning by an average margin of less than three points per game! Prior to losing at Rhode Island on Saturday (trailed wire to wire), the Bonnies needed to rally back from 18 down to overcome St. Joe's the game before. With a big home game looming vs. VCU this weekend, I look for this to be a bit of a trap spot for St. Bonaventure, who is just 2-2 ATS as a favorite in conference play. 8* Duquesne

8* Under Pelicans/Pistons (7:35 ET): Both of these teams have been going Over a lot recently, so this is probably a good time to try and go the other way. Over its last five games, Detroit is shooting 48.9% from the floor and averaging 109.4 PPG. Those are much better offensive numbers than what we're used to seeing from Stan Van Gundy's team. The same holds true for the Pelicans, whose last five games have also seen a rise in scoring at the offensive end. Some of that can be attributed to the fact that last night's game (at Toronto) went to overtime. Tied at 96 at the end of regulation, it still was an Under for some (like me!) that bet the game early. Tonight, I don't believe we'll have to worry about OT or much scoring. Take the Under.

The Pistons have not played any OT games recently, but have still scored at least 102 pts in six consecutive contests. This is pretty irregular for what is still the third lowest scoring team in the Eastern Conference. When you talk true shooting numbers, which weigh three point and free throw numbers, this team is always one of the worst in the league. This year has been no different as they rank 27th. Defensively, the team is again driving SVG up a wall w/ four straight bad performances on that end. But for the year, the Pistons are only giving up 98.6 PPG, which is a very good number. New Orleans simply is not as strong offensively as most recent Detroit opponents have been.

The Pelicans average less than 100 PPG on the road and like I said earlier, last night's game went to overtime. The Under is 14-8 in all of their road games so far this season. They did average 113 PPG in a season sweep of Detroit last year, but that included Anthony Davis turning in a career night w/ 57 points in one of them. Last night saw the Pelicans scored only 36 points in the second half in what has to be considered a deflating loss. Other than Davis, there just aren't a ton of offensive options here and now one starting forward (Dante Cunningham) is out w/ a wrist injury.  If there is one silver lining here though; it's that Detroit shot 3 of 27 from three-point range in its last game. I look for a relatively low-scoring game tonight. 8* Under Pelicans/Pistons

8* Orlando (7:35 ET): With a three-game win streak, Indiana has risen to sixth place in what is still a pretty weak Eastern Conference. Despite this, they've still been outscored over the course of the season. They are off an impressive upset of Houston, but that was at home. Now they hit the road where they've gone just 7-16 SU/ATS this year and giving up 110.9 points per game. Furthermore, coming off an upset win has not been an advantageous spot for them this year as they're only 1-6 ATS in the role. Granted, laying just a short number to an Orlando team that is one of the few NOT in the contention in the East might not sound all that challenging. But the Magic have been competitive the L2 games, including an outright win at Toronto. Take the points. 

The Magic admittedly haven't fared well in the past vs. the Pacers. They're just 1-8 SU/ATS L9 H2H meetings including an 0-2 mark this year. Both prior meetings though came in Indiana. The first saw Orlando score just 69 points. The second saw them give up 117. So there's clear work to be done on both ends of the floor here. Fortunately, leading scorer Evan Fournier (16.8 PPG) has returned to the lineup. Also, as mentioned before, Indiana is not good on the defensive end when taking its act on the road. Overall, the Pacers have allowed 100+ pts in 14 of their last 15 games. Last time out, Fournier and the Magic weren't in a great spot, playing the second of B2B road games at Minnesota. They were off the upset of Toronto the night prior, but still were able to take the T'wolves into overtime before falling by only six. Back at home w/ a day off, I expect the team to play well. 

Indiana's win over Houston was surprising, particularly the margin of victory it came by. They shot 54% in a 120-101 outright win as three-point dogs as Paul George scored 30+ for a fourth straight game. The Pacers were also fortunate in that James Harden had an off-shooting night (3 of 17!). Speaking of good fortune, Friday's win over Sacramento would certainly qualify as they basically trailed the whole game before a furious fourth quarter rally led to overtime. I definitely put a ton of stock in the home vs. road split w/ this team as they're being outscored by 6.8 PPG on the road. As a road favorite, they're a terrible 1-6 both SU and ATS. 8* Orlando

10* Clemson (7:00 ET): If his team keeps it up, Georgia Tech's Josh Pastner is certainly going to win ACC Coach of the Year. He probably is worthy of some National COY discussion. That's because his Yellow Jackets, picked to do next to nothing this year, keep pulling upsets. In the last six games alone, they've won straight up four times as a dog. They're 6-0 ATS overall. That stretch started w/ a 75-63 win in Atlanta over Clemson (were +10). Tonight is the rematch w/ the Tigers, in Death Valley, and incredibly Clemson will be asked to lay fewer points here than they were on the road. Granted, CU had lost six in a row before Saturday's 67-60 win at Pitt. But this is still a good team, one that is clearly capable of winning by the margin the oddsmakers are calling for here. Lay the points.

Again, I'd like to point out that Ga Tech has yet to be favored in a single ACC game! Their latest upset came on Saturday when they stunned Notre Dame on a last second buzzer beater. It was the Jackets' second victory over a top 15 team last week as they also destroyed Florida State. Both games took place in Atlanta. Against Notre Dame, they trailed by as many as 10 early and were able to overcome poor three-point shooting. Despite the impressive week (and month for that matter), you have to wonder when the Jackets will begin simply regressing to the mean. They are only 1-3 SU on the ACC road mind you. At Virginia, they managed only 49 points. At Duke, they were beaten 110-57. On the offensive end, the team has yet to shoot better than 50% in any conference game this season.

Clemson may not be in the same class as a Virginia or Duke, but like those two teams, they can beat Ga Tech by double digits. Remember that the Tigers opened the year 12-2 SU. Then 2017 happened. After opening ACC play with a win at Wake Forest on New Year's Eveb, the team dropped six straight, four of the losses coming by five points or less. They've had to play North Carolina, Notre Dame, Louisville and Virginia. No shame in losing to those teams. Really, the only "bad" loss is the one to tonight's opponent as they were 10-pt favorites in Atlanta. In retrospect, that was clearly a bad read by the oddsmakers but that doesn't mean it's not a tremendous value now laying fewer points at home. In that first matchup, Clemson shot just 36.7% from the floor. I project major improvement from that number here as they are at 47.2% at home where they average an impressive 81.2 PPG. 10* Clemson

10* San Diego State (11:00 ET): Both teams here are off home losses. That said, it's still a huge benefit for San Diego State to be at home. Whether you're talking football or basketball, Wyoming sports always seems to have one of the sharpest home-road dichotomies. This year's Pokes also have a strong split in terms of being favored or an underdog. When favored, they're 10-0 SU. When they're an underdog, they're just 2-6. Take away the one time they were favored (won 80-70 over lowly San Jose State) and they're just 1-5 SU in "true" roadies with all of the losses coming by six points or more. It's been many years since they last won here at Viejas Arena. Lay the points.

San Diego State was the consensus choice to win the Mountain West this year, but stumbled out of the gate, losing its first three league games. They went on to win the next three, but tonight hope to avoid a pattern as they're off B2B losses, both as favorites. First it was a road loss at Air Force last Tuesday, 60-57, as 6.5-pt chalk. That game saw the Aztecs blow a second point lead. It was another narrow setback on Saturday, this time on the road, as they lost in the final seconds at Colorado State. That was a one-point game. In fact, three of the Aztecs' five league losses have come by three points or less. All three wins have been by double digits. They do remain tops in the conference, giving up just 62.9 points per game. I really do like their chances of a bounce back here.

Among Mountain West teams, Wyoming takes the most three-pointers and makes the fewest. That's a rather dubious combination. They are making less than 30 percent of their attempts from behind the arc in conference play. On the road, that number drops to a horrendous 26.5%. I think the Cowboys simply lack the firepower to keep pace here against what should be a very motivated favorite thaty's looking to bounce back from a pretty rare home defeat. 10* San Diego State

8* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): The last time that the Lakers hosted the Nuggets, oddsmakers had the game as a pick em. So there's clearly some value on the home side in this rematch, although I should point out that the Nuggets did win that last meeting, 127-121. Still, I don't believe that's enough to justify the shift in the market that's taken place. Sure the Lakers have just one SU win in the last three weeks and are w/o PG D'Angelo Russell. But the Nuggets happen to be w/o Nikola Jokic and I do not see them winning a fourth straight game here tonight. Take the points.

Denver has won seven of nine overall and Jokic was a big reason for that. The big man had been averaging 23.9 points, 11.1 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game this month. He's also shooting 60 percent from the floor this season. So his absence is going to be a big deal. The team was able to overcome it Saturday in Phoenix as they got a season-high 32 points from Danilo Gallinari and they went to the free throw line a ridiculous number of times (42), making 37. For the season, their road record is still only 9-14 SU and they are giving up 111.1 points per game overall, third most in the league.

The only time that the Lakers have won since 1.8 was the last time they played at home, 108-96 over Indiana. They just played three in a row on the road and did cover Thursday night in Utah, as 14-pt dogs. They haven't played since, making this the longest stretch of time off they've had between two games all season. It should serve them well. Also, there's a lot of revenge in play here as the Lakers are 0-5 SU and ATS the last five times hosting the Nuggets. At home, the Lakers have been a lot more competitive this year and actually own a positive scoring differential! There aren't exactly a lot of "prime spots" to back the Lakers, but this is one of them. 8* LA Lakers

10* Under Pelicans/Raptors (7:05 ET): Toronto has not played well recently and can no longer blame injuries. All the key players were in uniform for Sunday's embarrassing loss to Orlando where they were 11-pt favorites and gave up 114 points. Overall, it was the Raptors' sixth loss in the last seven games. Defense has been the primary concern as they've given up more than 100 pts in five of the last six, including 113+ three times. Tonight, they'll be hosting a New Orleans team that enters in off its own bad loss from Sunday. This will be the Pelicans' first road game in awhile as they just completed a 3-3 homestand that included wins over Cleveland and San Antonio. The Over cashed in every game but the last one (scored only 94 pts), but I like the Under here.

Without question, the nadir of the homestand for New Orleans was a 143-114 loss to Brooklyn. I'm sure that will end up being the team's worst defensive performance of the season. Thanks to having Anthony Davis in the middle, the Pelicans actually rank #7 in the league in defensive efficiency. That's pretty impressive. What's not impressive though is the fact their offensive numbers tail off on the road, down to only 98.9 PPG. That's more than a full eight point per game decrease from what they average at home. As a result, the Under is 14-7 in their 21 road games thus far. The team is only 26th in offensive efficiency to begin with and like I said earlier is off a game where they scored only 94 points.

Toronto's last game may have soared Over the total but they'd previously held Milwaukee to just 86 points the game before that. Given the criticism levied on the team's defensive play, I expect it to be a point of emphasis for tonight. Outside of Davis, there just isn't a ton to worry about with the Pelicans. Note that for the year neither teams total points per game exceeds what the O/U line is here. I think the value is on the Under here. 10* Under Pelicans/Raptors

10* Carolina (7:05 ET):  There was a time where you could have made the case that the Metro, which happens to be the toughest division in the sport, was a five-horse race. That was back when Philadelphia was in the midst of a 10-game win streak, however. Now, although still only seven points back of fourth place, the Flyers have gone 6-9-3 the last 18 games. They did win their final three before the break, two of them against division rivals, but I never bought into this club as a legit contender. Thus, I'll be fading them here in Carolina. To say the Hurricanes were not playing well heading into the break would be putting it mildly, but I think that will only serve to make them all the more eager to grab the two available points tonight.  

The 'Canes dropped their final five games before the Break, getting outscored 23-5. They had the unfortunate task of playing Columbus twice (both times on the road), Pittsburgh and Washington during that stretch. Those are three of the best five teams in the league right there, if not the best three. So a drop in class should behoove Carolina here. This team's lack of success mystifies me somewhat as they are among the top five in fewest shots allowed per game this year. It's been the goaltending that's burned them as  no one has been able to consistently step up between the pipes. But at least tonight's starter Cam Ward has a .917 save percentage on home ice.

The Flyers' poor goaltending has also been an issue as Steve Mason (likely starter tonight) has a .895 save percentage on the road. The Flyers not only have a losing road record, but they are being outscored by roughly a full goal per game in such contests. If there's one key advantage that either side has in this game, it's Carolina on the penalty kill. In that department, they are the #1 team in the league at 88.1 percent. They are also 7-1 SU this season on home ice when the total is 5.5.  10* Carolina

10* Ohio State (7:00 ET): Maryland is 19-2 SU and ranked #17 in the country. But, like many, I feel they have been one of the more fortunate teams in the country this year and are nowhere near as good as their record and ranking might seem to indicate. They are 8-0 as an underdog, not just against the spread, but straight up as well. So they've certainly beaten the oddsmakers' low expectations. But, eventually, regression will hit a team I do not believe to be even one of the top 40 in the nation. Yes, you read that correctly. Tonight, they're getting points at Ohio State and while that perfect record as a dog certainly has to give you pause, I'm fading the Terps in this one.

While Maryland went to Minnesota on Saturday and pulled off its eighth outright upset of the year, Ohio State lost at home as a 1-pt dog to Iowa. It was the Buckeyes' second loss in the last three games and each of their previous four (before the Iowa loss) had been decided by six points or less. While OSU is only 3-6 SU in Big 10 play, they started 0-4 and have lost twice at home by two points or less. Their home record is 11-3 SU w/ visitors to Columbus averaging only 63.7 PPG. This is a revenge game too as the Bucks were swept by Maryland in LY's season series, including a close five-point loss here at home. Motivation should be especially high coming off the disappointing performance at Iowa City where they trailed by as many as 20 and let the Hawkeyes shoot 50 percent despite no Peter Jok.

Not only is Maryland 8-0 SU/ATS as a dog, they've won all eight road/neutral site games as well. But this will be their fourth "true" roadie in the last five games overall and eventually that's going to catch up w/ you. It was a come from behind effort Saturday at Minnesota, a performance that is highly unlikely to be duplicated. The Terps scored 59 points in the second half and shot better than 50% for the game, including a preposterous 11 of 18 from three-point range. Maryland is a young team and what we've seen from them thus far is something I view as unsustainable. They profile as a team likely to be upset on the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State is 8-2 ATS after giving up 80+ points its last game. 10* Ohio State

full analysis soon

10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): Just about any objective measure will tell you that the Nets are the worst team in basketball. That's okay though. Tonight, they are getting plenty of points against a bad team that is unaccustomed to the role of large favorite. Miami has shockingly won and covered seven straight games and as a result the market has taken notice. I think that it's important to note that only once have the Heat been favored during this win streak. Of course, it was against these Nets (by 2.5). They were fortunate that it was such a small number as they (Miami) won by only three, 109-106. That result only came about after a stunning 38-17 run to end the game. The Heat have not been favored by more than six points this season and this likely will be their high water mark as a favorite. Take the points.

Brooklyn has just one win since December 26th. They have just two road wins all year. They did win on 1.20 at New Orleans by shockingly scoring 143 points. Since that win, they've been competitive in three of the last five games. Last time out was not one of them as they fell by 20 at Minnesota. But that was also the second game of a back to back (had played Cleveland the previous night). Again, they had the Heat right where they wanted them after three quarters last week. Interestingly, despite the woeful road record, the Nets actually average MORE points per game away from home (108.3).

This play basically boils down to the fact that I think Miami is being severely overvalued. They've hardly dominated as four of the seven wins have been by six points or less. Prior to the streak commencing, I did feel as if the Heat were better than their record, but listen to the chatter now and it's as if people are now entertaining the notion that this might be a playoff team. That's not happening. A low-scoring, below .500 club is simply not a smart bet in this price range. The Heat have been favored only seven times all season and lost three of those games outright. 10* Brooklyn

8* Coastal Carolina (7:00 ET): We're going all Sun Belt with this three-game report as there are some real commonalities with the games. Here, we have Coastal Carolina hosting a revenge game against a TX-Arlington team that is playing on the road for a second time in three days. That's the dreaded spot we've been targeting the last couple days. The Mavericks did win Saturday, 83-67 as seven-point favorites over Appalachian State. It was their fourth consecutive win and cover. But I feel it will be tough for them to win/cover as a road fave for a second time in this short of a span. Coastal Carolina, a SBC newbie, still remembers what happened to them on New Year's Eve. Take the points.

What happened to Coastal Carolina on NYE was a 90-69 beatdown from UT-Arlington. It was a game w/ a ton of three-point attempts (75 total!), but it was actually the Chanticleers inability to make two-point shots that hurt them. Of course, they didn't play any defense either. It's been a real "up and down" start to CC's first year in the Sun Belt as after the loss to UT Arlington, they immediately went on a four-game win streak. They've since dropped three in a row, including a two-point loss here at home to Texas State on Saturday. Their poorest offensive effort of the season was untimely considering they held the Bobcats to just 33.9% shooting.

With Ga Southern losing Saturday, UT Arlington is now just one of three teams within a game of 1st place in the Sun Belt. It should be noted that the Mavericks actually trailed at the half Saturday, 32-24, before exploding for 59 second half points. They did not take their first lead of the game until there was 13:34 left. So the fact they ended up winning by 16 does not tell "the whole story."  Both conference losses took place on the road, for the record (Texas State and Troy). I expect Coastal Carolina to be a lot better defensively here compared to the 1st meeting as they allow only 66.1 PPG at home for the season (opponents shooting only 38%). UT Arlington's average margin of victory as a road favorite is just 2.3 PPG. 8* Coastal Carolina

full analysis soon

10* Evansville (4:00 ET): Has it really been since January 1st? That's the last time Evansville won a game apparently. They beat Northern Iowa 70-58 that day as short 2.5-pt home favorites. Since then, it's been seven straight losses in MVC play for the Purple Aces. What has gone wrong? Well, averaging 61.2 PPG simply isn't going to get it done this time of year. Note that this season was always considered to be a rebuilding year, but I think even the biggest pessimist would not have forecast this. With little to play for the rest of the way, facing the Missouri Valley's top team at home, in a revenge spot no less, may be the last chance to fire the Purple Aces up. With the underdog 11-4 ATS the L15 H2H meetings, I'm taking the points here.

Illinois State is one of the few remaining teams in the country w/o a conference loss. Of course, just yesterday, I targeted one such team (UNC Wilmington) and came away quite happy (they lost big, laying pts on the road). These two teams actually opened conference play against one another and it was ISU winning 62-50 in Normal. Evansville had an awful shooting night, making only 14 of 54 field goal attempts (25.9%!) including 2 of 12 from three-point range. That's still the fewest points scored by the Purple Aces in any game this season. Of note to me is the fact that Illinois State was a 7.5-point favorite for that contest. The line is essentially identical here for the rematch, despite the change in venue!

Illinois State is in first place in the MVC, but they are not the best team in the league (Wichita State is). I tip my cap to the Redbirds for beating the Wheat Shockers two weeks ago (game was in Normal), but you can bet Greg Marshall will have his team ready for next weekend's big rematch. ISU stayed unbeaten in conference play w/ a narrow 71-66 win over Larry Bird's alma mater (Indiana State) on Wednesday. It was their 10th straight win, but it didn't come easy as they trailed at halftime (at home) and shot only 40.8% from the field. It's difficult to beat the same team twice in a season, let alone cover both times. The fact that Evansville allows only 61.7 PPG at home will keep them in this one. 10* Evansville

8* Cleveland (3:30 ET): It has been a miserable start to 2017 for the defending champs, who are a money burning 2-11 ATS this month. As a result, I think many will be surprised to find them laying this number to Oklahoma City. I won't be taking the "bait," however. Rather, I'm going to buy low on LeBron James and company as OKC is by no means what they once were when Kevin Durant was here. The Thunder roll into Cleveland on a three-game win streak, but they have a losing road record due to giving up an unsightly 108.2 PPG. That won't work against a Cavs team that's still among the most efficient in the league offensively. While Russell Westbrook considers to draw well-deserved praise for his individual play, the team's offensive efficiency is way down this year.

Also, OKC will now be w/o Enes Kanter for the foreseeable future. Thursday night vs. Dallas, Kanter made the regrettable decision to punch a chair and ended up fracturing his forearm. His absence moving forward will drastically impact the team's rebounding, which rated among the best in the league. As alluded to earlier, this is not a great offensive team despite Westbrook putting together one of the great individual seasons in recent memory. Last season, they were right behind top ranked Golden State for the most efficient offense in the league. This year, they're down to #17! This, along with the poor defensive numbers on the road (see above), is not a good combination when facing Cleveland.

LeBron did not hold back in his criticism of the Cavs' current roster construction. While they did recently add Kyle Korver, JR Smith is still out w/ an injury. Their own defense, or lack of it, remains a concern. But here at home, the team is still 20-5 SU and averaging an impressive 113.5 PPG. A 124-116 win over league-worst Brooklyn is no reason to throw a parade, but again, I view this as an opportunity to "buy low" on a team that's been a double digit favorite in four of its past five games. The Cavs swept the Thunder last season when Durant was still in the fold. Recently, OKC lost by 20+ to both the Clippers and Warriors on the road. 8* Cleveland

8* Detroit (2:00 ET): At one point, Wisc GB was the lone remaining unbeaten in the Horizon League. The Phoenix began conference play 5-0 SU, but it was hardly the most daunting slate of games. Then they dropped B2B games at Valpo (blown out) and at home to Youngstown State (stunner!). They've seemingly "reversed course" over the past week though w/ wins over Cleveland State and more notably, Oakland. The Phoenix were eight-point underdogs for their visit to Oakland, which they ended up winning straight up by eight points. But this marks the dreaded "second road game in three days" spot where I love to fade teams, particularly if they're laying points on the road. This is a proverbial letdown spot for the road chalk.

Detroit is certainly hoping for a bit of a letdown from the Phoenix because they've lost three straight, giving up 100+ pts twice in the process! Ironically though, they are off an overtime loss where the final score was only 73-69. That was Friday, here at home, versus WI-Milwaukee. The Titans were short-handed for that game as starter Chris Jenkins (leading rebounder) was out w/ a hip injury. He could return today. Also, Jenkins or no Jenkins, the Titans should have won Friday. But they were an absolutely atrocious 9 of 29 from the three throw line! Such a performance cannot possibly be repeated again this season. While it's certainly been a rough season thus far for the Titans, let's take into account the Jenkins' injury and the fact they've have to play five of their last seven on the road. Remember - this team also upset Oakland on the road - as 18.5-pt underdogs.

Detroit's defensive numbers definitely gave me pause initially, but then again, Wisconsin GB is no defensive stalwart by any means. The Phoenix allow 76.6 PPG, a bad number when you're favored on the road. Unlike Detroit, this team has gotten to play the majority of its Horizon League games at home thus far. In only one of the previous four, against Youngstown State (worst team in the league), were they favored.  It's important to note that the Phoenix could again be w/o starting point guard Trevor Anderson.  8* Detroit

8* Over Grizzlies/Jazz (9:05 ET): As you probably are well aware, scoring is way up in the NBA this year. So, by 2017 standards, this is a borderline microscopic O/U line. Of course, given the participants, we shouldn't be too surprised. Memphis and Utah are the ONLY two teams in the league that neither score nor allow 100 PPG. But it should be noted the Grizzlies are within a hair of that threshold on both ends, scoring 99.9 PPG while giving up 99.7. Last night, they lost 112-109 in Portland, ending a streak of four straight Unders. Utah is also just below 100 PPG themselves (99.4), so this total simply looks too low given the season long averages. Take the Over.

Further aiding our cause is the fact that the Grizz give up 104.8 PPG on the road this year, a number which obviously jumped a bit after last night's result. That will somewhat counteract Utah's PPG allowed going down here at home as the gap is greater on Memphis' end. The Grizz have also scored at least 101 pts in six of their last seven games, ironically only failing to do so against Houston. The Over is 15-8 in Memphis' road games this season. Utah, who has gone Under in three straight themselves, had scored 100+ every time out in a six game win streak prior. Two of the three home games this year when the total is sub-190 have gone Over the total for them.

These teams have met twice before, both times in Memphis. Yes, both games stayed Under similarly low totals. But the first meeting saw abborrent shooting, particularly from the Grizzlies side as they were 2 for 23 from three-point range. Also, Utah didn't really help itself from the free throw line in either game, going a combined 28 of 48. For the year, the Jazz may not be great at the charity stripe, but they're at least 75%.  They also shoot 37.4% from three-point range at home (47% overall). We may not see another O/U line this low for the rest of the NBA season. 8* Over Grizzlies/Jazz

8* Under Nuggets/Suns (9:05 ET): These teams just played Thursday in Denver and the final score was 127-120 in favor of the Nuggets. Clearly, a high-scoring result should not surprise you as Denver is the top Over team in the league this year. In fact, the Over is now an incredible 24-6 for them even when the O/U line is 210 or higher! Phoenix is hardly a defensive stalwart as they allow 111.8 PPG, which is right around the same number Denver gives up. But I'm willing to bank that they can't go Over the same high number a second straight time and thus I'm on the Under here. Even w/ the somewhat dramatic increase we've seen in scoring this season, this is a high number. Neither team's games average more 221.2 PPG.

Having just met two nights ago, there should obviously be greater familiarity between the two sides. Now, I'm well aware that all three matchups this year have gone Over. But the O/U line was made significantly higher for Thursday's meeting. Denver has scored at least 120 in all three games vs. Phoenix this year, but is expected to be w/o Nikola Jokic tonight, which would be a major loss. Jokic tallied 27 points, 14 rebounds and eight assists before leaving w/ a hip strain Thursday night. The injury took place w/ less than two minutes remaining in the game, so it had no bearing on the outcome. But missing Jokic for a full game here would obviously have a somewhat dramatic effect on offensive production.

Also on Thursday, Denver made 21 of 25 free throws - in the second half! They should not get that kind of "added production" here on the road. For the year, they average 26 free throws per GAME. Additionally, I don't see the teams combining to shoot as well as they did Thursday. Both were better than 51% including 19 of 52 from three-point range. Even by both team's lofty standards, this is a really high total. They may have gone Over it Thursday, but consider a "tipping point" of sorts as Denver in particularly is highly likely to see overall scoring decrease somewhat moving forward. 8* Under Nuggets/Suns

8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): This is a really rough spot for visiting Sacramento. They blew a second half lead last night in Indiana and ended up losing in overtime. This will not only be the the second game of a B2B tonight, but their sixth consecutive road game as well. Likewise, host Charlotte is playing w/o rest and off a deflating loss. The Hornets fell to to dysfunctional Knicks on the road Friday night, 110-107, their third straight loss and fourth in a row where they failed to cover. But back at home, I expect massive improvement. Charlotte swept the season series last year, both of which were high scoring affairs. I look for the road-weary Kings to simply run out of gas here. Lay the points.

The current three-game losing streak leaves the Hornets a game below .500 and a precarious seventh in the Eastern Conference. But in terms of point differential and efficiency rating (which are closely tied together), they are the fourth best team in the East. Getting outscored by eight points in the fourth quarter by the Knicks is certainly not a good look. But the other two losses during this streak came to red-hot Washington and Golden State (top team in the league). Going cold in the 4Q is what cost them last night in MSG. They've now lost all seven road games in January. But at home, they remain 15-9 SU for the year, averaging 105.6 points per game.

Sacramento scored 64 points in the first half last night and found itself up 16 midway through the third quarter. That's when things began to unravel for them. They had no answer for the Pacers' Paul George, who scored 33 points and made 16 of 17 free throws. Indiana ended regulation on a 17-5 run to force an extra five minutes of play. It will be very challenging for the Kings to get over the fact they just lost a road game where they outshot the opponent 50% to 37.7%. They have won just twice in nine tries in the second game of back to back this year. I should also mention that Sacramento has played B2B overtime games as they won in Cleveland Wednesday night. They are now 0-4 SU coming off an OT game this season. Remember they are down a key man (Rudy Gay) for the rest of the season. 8* Charlotte

10* William & Mary (4:00 ET): UNC Wilmington is still unbeaten in CAA play (20-2 SU overall) following Thursday's 87-76 win at James Madison. If one were to omit Gonzaga from the discussion, then there's probably a legit argument to be made that the Seahawks are the top mid-major in the country this season. But laying points on the road for the second time in three days can be tricky. Here they'll be taking on a William & Mary team that is not only unbeaten at home (averaging 91.5 PPG!), but will certainly be hungry for revenge after getting humiliated 16 days ago down in Wilmington, 101-77. It should be noted that W&M covered both meetings last season including an 18-point win here at home. Take the points.

William & Mary is now 8-0 SU at home following Thursday's 82-58 blowout of a bad Delaware team. That win and cover actually snapped a five-game ATS losing skid. The Tribe shot almost 57% from the field in the win, including 11 of 23 from three-point range. They led by double digits most of the way. Looking back at that first meeting w/ UNCW, there are two things I expect to very different this go around. One is W&M leading scorer Daniel Dixon is highly unlikely to be held to just 10 pts again. That marked a season-low for Dixon, who averages 19.0 PPG in conference play. Also, the William & Mary defense is generally outstanding at home. They let UNCW shoot 55.7% from the floor in the first meeting. Look for that number to come way down here.

UNCW has dominated the CAA the L2 seasons, but they haven't had much luck here in Harrisonburg. Their last win here came back in 2012 and overall they've dropped seven of nine to the Tribe. Last year's visit was a "real bitter pill to swallow" as they allowed 23 straight points in the second half to go from 12 up to an eventual 18-point loss. I already mentioned that W&M is averaging an outstanding 91.5 PPG here at home. Well, they're allowing only 66.5 on 40% shooting as well. UNCW couldn't miss in the first meeting, but the fact they allow 47% shooting on the road while W&M shoots 53.6% at home will lead to a dramatic reversal of fortune tonight. 10* William & Mary

10* Eastern Michigan (3:30 ET): This game will carry special importance for Eastern Michigan. Not only are the Eagles coming off B2B losses, the last one coming as seven-point home faves Tues vs. Ball State, but they have not won a game here in Oxford in a LONG time. My records (go back to '97) show it's been 11 straight losses on the road to MAC rival Miami. But despite what we've seen recently, this year's Eagles team is clearly superior to the RedHawks. EMU is still tied for the lead in the MAC West, having gone 4-3 SU in conference play. Meanwhile, Miami has really struggled. They'd lost five in a row before sneaking by Buffalo (by a single point) Tuesday. I'll lay the points here as when the teams met LY in Ypsilanti, the Eagles prevailed by 25.

A lack of rebounding really hurt Eastern Michigan Tuesday night in Muncie as they were -8 on the glass against Ball State and lost 88-80. Allowing 12 offensive rebounds was a real killer and I will concede rebounding is a weak spot for this team. But that's not as big of a concern when they're making shots. They come in averaging 81.0 PPG, which is tied for 36th in the country. They scored 50 in the second half alone Tuesday. After shooting below 40% each of the L2 games, I expect massive improvement tonight. Last Friday's loss at Akron (still unbeaten in conference) was certainly excusable. This is a really important game for the Eagles to win so they can at least stay tied for the division lead. As a road favorite, they are 2-0 this season, winning by an average margin of 27 points per game.

Miami actually trailed Buffalo by as many as eight points Tuesday before rallying for the eight-point win. Typically not a great defensive team, the RedHawks held the Bulls to just 40% shooting for the game. Three of their previous five opponents shot at least 54% from the field. That's bad news against a potent offense like the one Eastern Michigan brings to town. By the way, EMU is holding conference opponents below 40% shooting from the floor so far this season! I feel they're ready to snap this long losing streak in Oxford, not to mention bounce back from a tough week overall. 10* Eastern Michigan

8* Houston (8:05 ET): I'm a firm believer in regression to the mean and in the case of these two teams, that's what we should be seeing tonight. The Sixers, while certainly improved from the doldrums of the last few years, have been playing above their heads of late. They just won at Milwaukee two nights ago (were 11-pt dogs) and are 8-2 STRAIGHT UP the L10 games, making this their best stretch of basketball in some time. Houston, on the other hand, has lost two in a row as favorites. I played against them Monday in Milwaukee and then they again failed to get the job done in Boston. But this remains one of the best teams in the league right now. It may seem like a lot of points to lay given Philly's recent play, but do it. 

Earlier this season, Houston beat Philadelphia 115-88 as 11-pt home favorites. In terms of offense, this remains a major mismatch. The Rockets are third in the league in offensive efficiency while the Sixers are 30th (by a comfortable margin). With the increase in scoring we've seen this season, there just aren't many teams still scoring below 100 PPG, but you can count Philly among them. Meanwhile, Houston averages the second most points per game in the league (114.3), trailing only Golden State. I just don't see how the 76ers will be able to keep pace here, especially w/o Joel Embiid. Defensively, it's not as if they are that superior to the Rockets where it can negate the massive edge Houston has offensively.

Houston has lost three of four due to the fact they've allowed 120+ in all three losses. That won't be an issue here, trust me. Philly is off two of its best offensive showings of the year and shot 53.3% vs. Milwaukee. But I can't see them sustaining that. The Rockets are also 16-6 ATS this season when faced w/ a team with a losing record. 8* Houston

10* Yale (8:00 ET): These Ivy League schools just met last Friday w/ Yale winning 75-74. They were 6.5-pt road favorites in the contest, so even w/ the non-cover, it does appear there's value here with the Bulldogs back in Connecticut. Brown was able to keep pace last week due to the three-pointer (they made 12 compared to just five for Yale), but on the road, the Bears' shooting from long distance predictably dips. Furthermore, when they are the road team, Brown is allowing opponents to shoot a ghastly 53.2% from the floor. Lay the points

Tonight marks Yale's first home game in Ivy League play. They won two of three on the road so far, only losing to conference favorite Princeton. The Bulldogs won all six non-conference home games by an average of 22.1 points per game. Yes, that number is somewhat skewed due to a 102-46 win over Mitchell College on January 7th, but the last four wins have all come by double digit margins. They also have beaten Brown five straight times overall. They are 15-4 ATS L19 Friday games and 14-4 ATS when taking the court w/ 5 or 6 days rest.

Brown is just 2-7 SU away from home this year due in large part to giving up over 80 PPG. They did win at Penn on 1.14, but also lost by 31 at Princeton the previous night. Yake has actually won 20 in a row at home (nation's 5th longest streak!), so this is a tough place to come in and win. Yes, Brown led by 12 at the half last Friday, but that was at home and I do not anticipate any kind of similar deficit taking place here. Yale is not only the Ivy League leaders in assists and rebounds per game, they are the top shooting team as well. They also commit the fewest fouls per game in the entire country! That's huge because Brown is the top FT shooting team in the league. Take away that part of the Bears' game and it should be a long night here. 10* Yale

10* Indiana (7:05 ET): This is the second night of a back to back for the Pacers, who won last night in Minnesota. Paul George led the way w/ 32 points and the team shot 51.9% from the floor (55% from three-point range!) in a 109-103 final. They now are a game over .500 and sixth in the Eastern Conference (sad?). For Sacramento, this is game #5 of what will eventually be an eight-game trip. They'll be in Charlotte tomorrow night. It's been back to back upsets pulled by the Kings, the last one coming in overtime, as 11-pt underdogs in Cleveland. It's difficult not to imagine there won't be some regression here, so I'll lay the short number w/ the Pacers, who are 16-6 SU at home.

Now I know this scenario hasn't been the most ideal for Indiana. They are 1-7 - both SU and ATS - in the second game of a back to back this season. They are also just 1-6 ATS (2-5 SU) coming off a SU win as a dog. But it's key to point out that five of the losses when unrested came on the road, four of them in the second of B2B road games. Here at home, they've been a bit sharper due to averaging 106.9 PPG overall. They are 13-2 SU when favored here at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. They just beat the Kings less than 10 days ago (in Sacramento, obviously) by a score of 106-100 as two-point dogs. I was shocked to learn that the Kings had swept the previous two season series. I have zero issue calling for a reversal of that trend tonight.

Indiana actually trailed by as many as 19 in their win at Sacramento on 1.18. Suffice to say, they shouldn't have to overcome any such deficit here tonight. While credit should be given for winning at both Detroit and especially Cleveland, all is not well w/ the Kings. It just seems as if Boogie Cousins (despite clearly being the best player here) and the organization will never get on the same page. The key here could lie on the defensive end as Indiana holds visiting teams to just 42.8% shooting here at home while Sacramento has allowed 47.4% its L5 games. Prior to winning its last two games, Sacramento had won just twice in its previous 12 games. 10* Indiana

8* Dallas (8:05 ET): Both the Mavs and Thunder won last night, the former at home and the latter on the road. They'll be switching jerseys tonight as OKC plays host. This is the first meeting between the teams since LY's playoffs when the Thunder eliminated the Mavs in five games. In fact, OKC really owned Dallas last year, taking eight of nine overall matchups. Sure, it's pretty clear that the Mavs won't be back in the playoffs this year (would be just 2nd time missing them this century), but since that dreadful 5-18 SU start, they've actually played .500 ball. They have covered six of their last seven games, the lone non-cover being a four-point loss. For Oklahoma City, this is their first game back home after a LONG road trip.

The Mavs have been a bit short-handed during their recent win streak, which makes the results all the more impressive. Andrew Bogut did return to the lineup Wednesday. But Deron Williams (toe), Dirk Nowitzki (rest) and Wesley Matthews (hip) could all be MIA. But two of those three didn't play last night either when they comfortably defeated the Knicks. While Carmelo Anthony went for 30 pts against them, he was shut out in the fourth quarter. Harrison Barnes (23 pts) and Seth Curry (20) led the way for Dallas, who was able to win comfortably despite being outrebounded and not shooting the ball particularly well. Curry is shooting better than 50% from three-point range the L7 games and averaging 14.4 PPG.

After this game, Oklahoma City will be back on the road for games at Cleveland and San Antonio. Might they be looking ahead to those? They went just 3-3 SU on the recently completed trip w/ all three losses coming by double digits. Led by yet another triple double from Russell Westbrook, the Thunder won in New Orleans last night thanks to a big first half. But they are just 2-6 SU in the second game of a back to back. Granted, Dallas is 0-8 SU, but OKC is the one laying points here. 8* Dallas

8* Murray State (8:00 ET): This may seem like a bit of an "odd" game to choose, but after suffering an outright loss at Austin Peay on Saturday, I expect Murray State to bounce back in a major way tonight at home against SE Missouri State. Thus far, the Racers have gotten to play only two OVC games at home. Both were wins, against Tennessee State and Eastern Kentucky. They've also won three of five on the conference road w/ both losses coming by four points or less. Meanwhile, SE Missouri State was just able to take care of some advantageous scheduling as they drew the two weakest teams in the OVC and beat both at home. Lay the points.

It was an overtime loss for Murray State on Saturday to Austin Peay. Nevertheless, they still lead the West Division in the OVC. Going into Austin Peay, the Racers had won three in a row. They led at the half. Here at home, the team averages 86.5 PPG and is 7-1 SU. They destroyed SE Missouri State here last season, winning by 27 points.

SE Missouri State has been a disaster away from home, going just 1-11 straight up. All but two of those losses were in "true" road games. They are being outscored by 9.4 PPG in them. At no point this season have the Indians won three straight games. Like I said earlier, they just got to host the two worst teams in the OVC (SIU Edwardsville and E Illinois). At one point in December, this team lost seven in a row, including a home game to Chicago State. 8* Murray State

10* James Madison (7:00 ET): UNC Wilmington is one of only a handful of teams still w/o a conference loss. In what is a REALLY down year for "mid majors," the Seahawks are making a case that they could be the best in the nation. They're 19-2 SU w/ the losses coming at Clemson and Middle Tennessee (the other top mid major). They've gone a perfect 8-0 so far against the rest of the Colonial, winning by an average margin of 13 PPG. But I believe tonight to be a tricky spot as they're laying double digits on the road. It's a virtual certainty that they'll be getting James Madison's best shot here as the Dukes will be happy to be back home following consecutive road losses. Take the points.

While James Madison has dropped four of its last five, two of those losses were by two points or less. Since the start of CAA play, the Duke have gone 3-1 SU at home. The one loss was by two points against College of Charleston, who is the second best team in the conference. Over the last week, they've gone 0 for 2 on the road w/ a one-point loss at William & Mary and then a second loss to Charleston, this time by 13. But despite falling by double digits, the game was actually pretty even. There were six ties and 10 lead changes, but a 35-18 edge in FT attempts for Charleston largely determined the final score. It was also a tough spot for JMU as Charleston was coming off its first CAA loss, to UNC Wilmington no less.

UNC Wilmington won its game by 13 on  Saturday, but did not cover as huge 18-pt favorites at Drexel. Again, that was another game that was close at the half, but the home team was able to pull away late (even though they were just 9 of 34 from three-point range). Clearly, we've reached a point where the lines are inflated on this team in conference play. The Seahawks have scored at least 84 in five of their past six games, but here I look for them to struggle offensively as JMU is giving up just 66.8 PPG. Also, this is a big revenge spot for JMU as they are 0-4 SU/ATS the L2 seasons against UNCW. 10* James Madison

8* Drexel (7:00 ET): Drexel is not having a good season at all as they have just one conference win against six losses. Tonight, they host CAA rival Hofstra in a big revenge spot. Hofstra has won all five H2H meetings between the schools the last two seasons, including a 3-0 sweep in 2016. But it's not as if the Pride are having themselves a memorable campaign here in 2017 either. They are just 2-6 in conference play, one of those victories coming Saturday at home against Northeastern. Both league wins have been by five points or less. The idea of this team laying points on the road seems fishy to me. Lay the points.

With a defense giving up an average of 81.6 points per game on the road, Hofstra hardly seems like an ideal candidate to be laying points. They were favored by eight over Delaware on the road in one of their two CAA wins. But they won that game by only two points. In fact, their two wins as road faves both came by two points as they beat Columbia 88-86 back on November 29th. The only other time they were a road fave was early in the year, at Manhattan, and they lost that game outright. Interestingly, they haven't won any games this year as an underdog (0-6). Though it was called an "upset" by some, they were actually slight favorites (-1.5) vs. Northeastern on Saturday. The Pride shot better than 54% for the game there and converted a 3-point play w/ just 17 seconds to go for the win.

I just don't see Hofstra making it two in a row here. Note that Drexel ran into UNC Wilmington (see other writeup) on Saturday and played them tough for a half as they were down only four at the break. Having played the best team in the CAA twice, Drexel has clearly had the more challenging conference schedule to this point. Hofstra has lost its last three CAA road games. They are just 8-19 ATS off a conference win the L3 seasons. 8* Drexel

8* Washington (7:05 ET): This is a matchup of the best and worst team in the Eastern Conference. Naturally, the price is high, but even so I'm taking the Capitals in this spot. They are off a rare loss (3-0 at Ottawa Tuesday), which was actually the first time they'd gone down in regulation in 2017! They'd previously won 12 of 13. Meanwhile, New Jersey is in last place in the Metro w/ the worst goal differential in the conference (-28). They'd actually won four of five before losing here on home ice to Los Angeles Tuesday night. The fact that the Devils rank 28th in goals per game while the Caps are 1st in goals allowed clearly makes this a less than ideal matchup for the home team.

Not only is Washington 1st in goals allowed, but they are 5th in goals scored. As a result, they have the best goal differential in the sport at +51. Remember that this team - easily - claimed the President's Trophy (most points in reg season) last year as well. Before getting shutout on Tuesday, this was a team that had scored 6+ goals in three of its previous four games. They'd scored at least four times in eight consecutive contests. Also worth noting is that Tuesday was the second game of a back to back, so Braden Holtby was not in goal. Holtby is the driving force behind the team ranking #1 in goals allowed and carries a .929 save percentage. He is 10-3-2 lifetime vs. the Devils.

Making matters more difficult for New Jersey here is that Washington has not lost B2B games in regulation since the end of November. Predictably, they've dominated the Devils, grabbing at least point in each of the L9 H2H matchups (8-0-1). They've won five straight here in East Rutherford. New Jersey did win in D.C. earlier in the year, 2-1, but did so in spite of a 44-27 deficit in shots on goal. Two days later, here on New Year's Eve, Washington won 6-2. The Devils are last in the league in shots per game (27.1). They also have the second worst power play in the league. Between the pipes, Corey Schneider has really fallen off a cliff this year and was pulled from the last game after giving up three goals. The only other option is Keith Kincaid, whose save percentage at home is .874.  8* Washington

10* Hawaii (11:59 ET): As you might expect, Hawaii is far more competitive out on the island as they're 8-6 SU here. That may not sound awe-inspiring (and it isn't), but it's also a "far cry" from what we've seen from this team on the mainland thus far, in an albeit small sample size. In four games away from home (two "true" road, two neutral), they're 0-4 SU/ATS, losing by double digit margin. Thankfully, the Warriors play at home tonight against UC Riverside, a team that is 1-9 SU in "true" road games. That one win came in their last one, last Thursday's outright triumph (were +7.5) at CS-Fullerton. They followed that win up on Saturday by beating undermanned UCSB 65-55 at home to improve to 5-0 ATS in Big West play. But I say that run comes to an end here. Lay the points.

Hawaii did lose here at home Saturday, 76-70 to Cal Davis as 2.5-pt chalk. It was a close game throughout w/ the game essentially decided at the FT line late. I'm always surprised when a road team can get to the free throw with great regularity than their host, but UC Davis did it with a shocking 37 attempts there. The loss snapped Hawaii's two game win streak as they'd beaten both Long Beach State and Cal State Northridge previously. The last time they lost a game outright as home chalk, they responded w/ a 20-pt win their next time out. This was back on November 27th against Arkansas Pine Bluff.

UC Riverside is not strong defensively as they give up 77 PPG on the road. Therefore, it was pretty shocking to see them hold their last opponent to just 30% shooting for the game, even if it was at home. But keep in mind that opponent, UCSB, is 331st in the country in scoring and currently w/o its second leading scorer. Prior to winning the L3 games, the first two as underdogs, the Highlanders had just three wins total in the first 14 games. They'd lost 9 of their last 10. The road team won both matchups between these Big West rivals last year, including the Highlanders pulling an upset as 14-pt dogs on the road. That won't happen again though as Hawaii should shoot a lot better this time around. They are 10-3 ATS off a conference loss, by the way. 10* Hawaii

10* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): A rare play on the Lakers by me as this is way too many points for Portland to be laying, period. It is the second straight road game for LA and in the last one, they were dealt the worst loss in franchise history, losing to Dallas by 49 points. But you may be surprised to hear that even though the Lakers have now dropped six of their last seven games overall, Portland is only four up on them in the standings. This is a tricky spot for the Blazers too as they return home from a four-game East Coast trip that ended w/ an upset of Boston as eight-point dogs. But before that they'd lost four in a row - both SU and ATS. Take the points here.

This is a matchup of two very poor defensive teams. The Lakers are in fact the worst in the league at the end of the floor, at least in terms of efficiency. But Portland isn't far ahead (27th) and actually allows the same number of points per game (110.5). So it's somewhat of an ideal matchup for the underdog. Also, if the players aren't motivated by what happened to them Sunday, then I don't know what to say. They shot just 38.4% against Dallas in a game where HC Luke Walton said "We didn't show up to play. . "It's embarrassing for us as a team, an organization, for our fans. The effort wasn't there. I love our group of guys. I know we're going to bring it the next game. That's not who we are, but it's frustrating what happened."

Portland needed OT to upend Boston on Saturday. Perhaps the time off alleviates some of the issue w/ returning home after a long-trip. But the team has covered as a favorite only four times over its L20 games. Granted, two of those were against the Lakers, but the spread was never this high. In fact, it was only -6.5 the last time they met in the Moda Center, which was three weeks ago. The teams also met on 1.10 in LA w/ the Blazers prevailing 108-87. So this a big time revenge spot for the Lakers too as they've actually now lost 10 straight to the Blazers. The number of contributions Portland got in its last game probably won't be present again here tonight. The second worst team in the league ATS laying its biggest number of the year is prime fade material. 10* LA Lakers

8* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): I went w/ the Bucks their last time out and they responded by delivering an outright victory here at home against the Rockets. That was a much needed result for this team, which had previously dropped five in a row - both SU and ATS. It was also a revenge spot as one of those five straight losses had come in Houston. Given that the number for the road loss was +6.5 and the Bucks then found themselves getting 4.5 for the rematch, my thinking is that it was a tremendous value. The same rationale applies here for yet another revenge spot against Philadelphia. Last week in Philly, the Bucks lost outright (as 8.5-pt chalk). While an adjustment is necessary after that result, the fact we now don't have to lay much more in Milwaukee seems like a bargain to me. Lay the points.

In that 113-104 win over the Bucks last week, the 76ers had eight player score in double figures. Chief among them was Joel Embiid, who led the way w/ 22. But Embiid will be unavailable here in this, the second game of a back to back for the team. Note that the Sixers are just 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS in the 2nd game of a B2B this season. They've won only 8 of 49 such games the L3 seasons. Embiid did not play last night either, but somehow the team still found a way to overcome a 19-point deficit to beat the Clippers, who are of course very short-handed themselves. Nerles Noel made his 1st start last year and performed quite admirably. But can he do it again. Remember that the Sixers still rank dead last in the league in offensive efficiency, so I wouldn't expect a repeat of last night's 121-point performance nor do I envision them making 14 three-pointers again like they did LW in Milwaukee.

The Bucks are off a strong offensive showing themselves as they turned in a season-best 58.8 FG% vs. Houston. Their 127 points scored were also the most in any game this season. However, the difference between them and Philly is that the Bucks lead the Eastern Conference in overall FG% (47.4), trailing only the Warriors and Spurs league-wide. Led by the "Greek Freak," Giannis Antetoukounmpo, the Bucks are still a team I'm quite high on. 8* Milwaukee

10* Toronto (7:05 ET): Like a lot of people, I see these franchises trending in very opposite directions. The Red Wings have made the Stanley Cup Finals in every non-lockout season since 1989-90. But that streak is in grave danger this year as they currently find themselves in a three-way tie at the bottom of the Atlantic w/ just 49 points. They're by no means "out of it," although their -17 goal differential and three-game losing streak entering Wednesday hardly inspire much confidence. Meanwhile, despite being just four points ahead in the standings, the Maple Leafs are poised to have their best season in years. Led by rookie sensation Auston Matthews, they are 6-2-2 L10 and have the second best goal differential in the division. Is it eye opening to see Toronto priced this way in Detroit. Perhaps, but it's more than justified.

Maybe the Leafs still give up too many shots per game for my liking, but most other areas of the team have improved dramatically. They are off a shutout win Monday night, 4-0 over Calgary. It was the third time in the L4 games that they kept the opponents' number of shots. It also marked the seventh time in the L10 games that they scored at least four goals. That's really impressive. The team now ranks sixth in the league in goals per game. They also have very impressive special teams, ranking 2nd on the power play and 4th in penalty killing. It also appears as if the goaltending situation has been addressed w/ the acquisition of Frederik Andersen, who in his L7 road games has posted both a 1.98 goals against average and .943 save percentage. The Leafs have gone 6-0-1 in those seven starts.

Detroit has lost three straight, all in overtime. But they were due for a downturn in luck in extra time, given their league-best 6-0 record in shootouts. If not for that mark, things would be looking even more dire here. The team ranks 24th in the league in both goals scored and allowed. They also have the league's worst power play at 11.3 percent. Tonight marks the second game of a back to back and in last night's 4-3 loss to Boston, they allowed 49 shots. That, coupled w/ the woeful .895 save percentage of Petr Mrazek (likely starter in goal here), means trouble going against the Leafs' offense. 10* Toronto

10* Iowa State (9:00 ET): Two Big 12 teams coming off outright wins as dogs meet Tuesday night in Ames. Actually, Kansas State has won SU B2B times as dogs, turning the trick at both Oklahoma State and West Virginia's expense. The Wildcats are now a perfect 4-0 ATS taking points this season. But for whatever reason, Iowa State appears to have become a tad bit underrated, at least according to oddsmakers and public here. The Cyclones do not lose at home often and come off a 92-87 win at Oklahoma over the weekend. With some better luck in close games (four losses by 4 pts or less), they'd be high in the polls. As it stands right now, they're not even ranked. But I have them as a Top 20 team and will lay the points here.

The four close losses that ISU has suffered came at the hands of Gonzaga, Cincinnati, Baylor and Kansas, all of whom are ranked in the Top 20. Three of them (Cincy the exception) checked in ranked in the Top 25 in the newest poll! So it's not as if the six losses are something the team should "hang its head" over. Saturday in Norman, it took two overtimes, but they were able to snap a two-game losing streak. The key was Deonte Burden scoring a career high 31 points. Also, they forced 25 turnovers and held OU to just 40% shooting. After falling behind early (were down 28-9!), ISU would go on to score 21 of the game's next 22 points and it was back and forth from there. Note that at home this year, the Cyclones are outscoring opponents by 23.4 PPG while holding them to a 36.1 FG%. Thus, this looks like a pretty short number to lay.

Kansas State is off a big win over West Virginia (got me!), but that was in Manhattan. Their four "true" road games thus far are the four games that they've been underdogs and as mentioned before, they're 4-0 ATS including a pair of losses by two points or less (at Texas Tech and Kansas). So neither side has been that lucky in close game so far, though both did just win by less than five on Saturday. K State was able to beat WVU (1st win over ranked opponent TY) thanks to forcing turnovers (similar to ISU vs. Oklahoma) and also had to rally from a double digit first half deficit. Despite both teams profiling so similarly, I feel the home court edge is being underrated and ISU is the better team anyway. 10* Iowa State

8* Chicago (8:35 ET): The Blackhawks are NOT the top team in the Central this year (that would be the Wild), but they have won three in a row and are in a lot better shape than the Lightning currently are. Tampa Bay, still w/o Steven Stamkos, now has to deal with a "bug" making its way through the locker room. Numerous players, including two key defensemen, have been out due to illness and as a result the team has dropped three straight. The "Madhouse on Madison" seems like one of the least likely places the Bolts could turn things around as they have lost 17 of 26 road games to begin with while Chicago has lost only five times in regulation on home ice, which is second fewest in the league. 

The Lightning actually come into tonight in last place in the Atlantic. They are 2-7-1 L10 games and just lost to lowly Arizona, 5-3. That game saw the usually reliable Ben Bishop get yanked after he allowed five goals on just 17 shots. Despite outshooting the 'Yotes 48-23, Tampa Bay actually found itself down 5-1 after just two periods of play. The Coyotes are not good (2nd worst team in the league) and its a huge jump in class facing Chicago. Needless to say, this matchup doesn't look anything like the 2015 Stanley Cup Finals between these two teams. This will also be the Lightning's fifth straight road game. Bishop has a shockingly poor .873 save percentage against Western Conference opponents.

Chicago has lost only twice over its last nine games and both setbacks came at the hands of top tier teams (Minnesota and Washington). Though I actually view the Wild as being vastly superior right now, the Blackhawks are tied for the Central Division lead. They beat Vancouver Sunday night, 4-2, scoring the first and last two goals of the game. Their 35 shots on goals matched a game high over the L5 contests. Key here is the team ranks 5th in goals allowed and gives up only 2.2 per game here on home ice. Corey Crawford likely gets the nod here and he has a superb .930 save percentage on home ice. 8* Chicago

10* Over Bulls/Magic (7:05 ET): Scoring has exploded in the NBA this season, so almost instinctively, you have to look to the Over. I had no problem doing so here, even though the Bulls are the top Under team in the league right now (28-15-2) and have gone Under in each of the last four meetings vs. the Magic. Why, you ask? Well, for starters, Orlando has given up at least 109 points in five of its last six games. The Bulls scored 112 on them in the first meeting of the season, back in November. At the same time, I expect the Magic to shoot a lot better tonight compared to two months ago. They were just 38.8% for the game and attempted only six free throws. It was actually a 61-52 game at the half (in favor of Chicago) before scoring screeched to a halt in the second half and the Under barely cashed.

The Bulls last played on Saturday and beat the Kings, 102-99. Again, that was a fairly high scoring first half (107 total pts), but the second (3Q in particular) was a different story. Chicago was lucky that Sacramento has little beyond Boogie Cousins, who went for 42, but the rest of the Kings scored only 57. Defensively, this team is not even close to what it was during the Tom Thibodeau days. They're allowing 102.1 PPG on the road this season and haven't allowed fewer than 99 in any of their last nine games, period. On offense though, the team posted its best rating in awhile against the Kings. The Magic aren't a whole lot better defensively than Sacramento.

Orlando ran into Golden State Sunday afternoon and you can pretty much guess how that one went. They allowed 118 points and lost by 20. It was their second 118-98 loss in the L3 games. In between, they scored 112 in a rare rout of Milwaukee. As I've already noted several times, defense is not this team's strong suit. Over the L5 games, they've given up an average of 114.2 PPG w/ opponents shooting nearly 50% from the floor. That's negated the team's own 105.4 PPG scoring average. For the year, the team does rank 29th in offensive efficiency, but again - they won't do any worse than they did the last time facing Chicago. That November 7th matchup saw the teams combine to go 12 of 49 from three-point range. We'll see much better here. 10* Over Bulls/Magic

8* Boston (7:05 ET): Spirits should be high for this game as the Celtics and Wizards have developed a bit of a rivalry this season. The home team has won the previous two matchups and on January 11th in Boston, we saw tempers flare on both sides, leading to a minor scuffle at the end of the game. Washington is going so far as to wear "all black uniforms" Tuesday night and that's somewhat apropos given the team has been largely "in the black" betting wise here in 2017. An outright win last night in Charlotte marked the Wiz's sixth consecutive cover and they've now won 8 of 10 overall. Both losses, one to Boston and the other by one point at Detroit, came on the road. The team has won 13 consecutive home games dating back to December 8th. But this is also the second game of a back to back and Boston is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season as a road fave of three points or less. I'm on the visitor here.

Often times, I make the argument that teams come in undervalued in the second game of a back to back. But that's not really the case here. Plus, the Wizards are just 2-7 straight up this year when playing w/o rest. Last night saw them shoot nearly 54% from the floor against Charlotte, a game they never trailed. They are now 12-2 SU this year when shooting 50% from the floor or better. But they shot just 42.9% in Boston two weeks ago, losing that one 117-108. While I've been impressed w/ the Wizards' recent ascension in the Eastern Conference standings (gone 18-8 SU L26 games overall), I still have my doubts as far as the defense goes (allow 105.7 PPG). This is not a top 10 team in either offensive or defensive efficiency, by the way.

Boston enters this game off B2B losses (as favorites) to New York and Portland at home. Those are "bad" losses, so even w/o the "budding rivalry" here, you'd naturally expect the Celtics to be highly motivated coming into this one. You have to like that perfect record as a short road favorite and over the L5 games the offense is averaging more than 111 PPG. Similar to last night's play on Milwaukee where I stressed "buy low," I believe it's time to "sell high" on Washington. 8* Boston

10* Florida (9:05 ET): Unlike the top-heavy Metropolitan, playoff spots in the Atlantic are still pretty much up for grabs, save for Montreal at the top. At least two other teams from the division have to make it and the Panthers currently find themselves in the middle of the group. The gap between Montreal and the rest of the pack is eight points. That's the same size gap that separates second place from last place. If Florida is to hang around, matchups like tonight are ones where they "must" get the two points. The team has lost three in a row and actually has the worst goal differential (-21) in the division as a result. But Monday they face off w/ Arizona, clearly the second worst team in the entire league.

While it's not even February, it's already safe to write off two teams' playoff chances. Both reside in the Western Conference. Colorado is clearly the worst team in the league (28 pts), but not too far ahead of them is Arizona. The Coyotes have only 34 points, which puts them at least 13 back of every other team in the league. They did win last time out, 5-3 over Tampa Bay, but that came after losing 12 of their previous 14 games. Due to ranking 29th in both goals scored and allowed (ahead of only Colorado in both categories), the 'Yotes' YTD goal differential of -48 is easily the league's second worst. It's double everyone else's with the exception of New Jersey. Special teams aren't very good here either as the club ranks 25th on the power play and 27th in penalty killing. Because they give up such a high volume of shots (league high 33.8 per game), goaltender Mike Smith rarely has a chance. His .898 save percentage the L4 starts doesn't help matters either.

For Florida, this game wraps up a four-game West Coast swing. They have yet to win on the trip as the annual trek through Western Canada did not go well as they lost at Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver. They are 8-3 SU after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game and lost to the Canucks 2-1 on Friday. Meanwhile, Arizona is 1-6 SU after scoring 4+ times in their last game. With a .921 save percentage for the year, I give Roberto Luongo the edge in goal for this matchup. Also, the Panthers rank 6th in the league in penalty killing. 10* Florida

10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): What has happened to the Bucks? One of the real early "pleasant surprises" in the Eastern Conference, they've all of a sudden dropped five in a row - both SU and ATS. Four of those losses, though, took place on the road. The last two were at Orlando and Miami, not a "good look" by any means, nor was the one home loss during the streak (to Philadelphia). But as a result of the recent swoon, we're now able to grab the Bucks at a very advantageous price. Tonight marks the 1st time since a December 20th game vs. Cleveland where they've been priced as a home dog. It's for good reason as they play a red hot Houston team that just beat them by 19 last week. But of particular interest to me is the fact this line is virtually the same as it was in Houston. Good value here. Take the points.

Since X-Mas, the Rockets have lost only four games (won 12). But all four losses have taken place over the course of the L7 games. The last one came at home to Golden State on Friday. But they quickly bounced back by disposing of Memphis on the road, 119-95, the following night. The size of that win has also contributed to the overinflation of this line, in my opinion. Note that when these teams met down in Houston last week, the game didn't really get out of hand until late. The Bucks did not shoot well (39.8 percent overall), particularly from three-point range (7 of 28). I expect better offensive play tonight from a team averaging 108.8 PPG at home. Remember that Houston is not a stalwart defensively. They allow 109.2 PPG on the road. 

That game last week, plus Saturday at Memphis, mark two of the only four times that the Rockets have held an opponent below 100 pts in the new year. It's also the only two times an opponent has shot below 40% against them. Again, I look for the Bucks to improve somewhat dramatically on the offensive end here. HC Jason Kidd has been toying w/ his lineup to no avail of late, but now that this mini Jabari Parker controversy is over (benched one game for "leaking" team info), that should be settled. If you're like me and view teams like stocks, then this would be a great time to "buy low" on the Bucks. 10* Milwaukee

8* Under NC State/Duke (7:00 ET): Because NC State is coming off a wild 93-88 game vs. Wake Forest (lost), we are able to get an O/U line that's higher than normal for Duke, who could be w/o Grayson Allen. Allen was injured (finger) in the last game, a 70-58 win over Miami, but is listed as probable. Despite the absence of Allen's thuggish behavior, the Blue Devils still turned in a strong defensive effort against "The U," allowing just 58 points. However, concerning is that nearly HALF of their own points scored (31) came off Miami turnovers. The Dukies actually were behind at halftime (trailed by 11!) thanks to one of their worst shooting halves of the year (0 for 12 from 3-pt range). Remember they are still w/o Coach K on the bench (Jeff Capel serving as interim). I'm on the Under in this one.

NC State certainly has issues defensively. That should be obvious when you consider the fact they shot 51% at home, scored 88 pts and still lost Saturday. They're now giving up an average of 84.7 PPG in ACC play. But even though the game vs. Wake Forest flew Over, a total this high lends itself to the Under. Prior to Saturday, there had been only two Wolfpack games where the O/U line was 160+. Both stayed Under and that's even with them allowing 107 pts in one of them! What was bad about Saturday is that it was Wake Forest's first ACC road win in three seasons. Even w/ Duke's rather "infamous" homecourt edge, I do not believe they'll go 29 of 33 from the FT line like Wake did 48 hours ago. Nor will NC State shoot as well tonight.

Due to injuries and the Allen suspension, Duke has been using a lot of different starting lineups of late. The end result is they've only topped 75 points twice in the last seven games. Again, had it not been for all the Miami turnovers on Saturday, I'm not sure how the Blue Devils would have scored. Defensively though, this team is pretty solid. They are holding opponents to a field goal percentage of only 38.7% here at Cameron and giving up just 61.1 points per game. That includes just 26.6% from three-point range. In four "true" road games thus far, NC State is averaging only 64.8 PPG, a dramatic decrease (-21.4 PPG) from what they average in Raleigh. 8* Under NC State/Duke

10* Iona (7:00 ET): While still one of the top teams in the MAAC (#2 behind Monmouth?), Iona hasn't been quite as dominant this year. Well, at least on the road. Last Tuesday, the Gaels snapped a four-game skid on the road by winning 82-67 at Manhattan. They followed that up by beating Fairfield Friday, 96-89, but failed to cover the nine-point spot at home. But tonight, for the first time, they actually get to play consecutive home games in conference play. The opponent is Quinnipiac (known for it's polling!) and this would be a revenge spot for Iona as they lost up in Hamden earlier this month, 97-91 (overtime) as seven-point favorites. Given what the line was there and the change in venue, this price looks to be a real bargain on Iona. Lay the points.

In addition to being a university known for its polling, Quinnipiac has a basketball team that's been pulling it's fair share of upsets of late. Compared to other conferences, MAAC play started early this year. Quinnipiac lost its first league game, back on Dec 1, 91-72 at Monmouth. But since then, the Bobcats have roared to a 7-0-1 ATS mark in league play including three outright upsets. Two have come in the last 10 days, the last one being Friday at Canisius, a game where they allowed 58 second half pts and still won. They were fortunate to jump out to a 15-point halftime lead there and also shot 58.8% for the game (8 of 13 from 3-pt range!). I seriously doubt that they'll be able to come close to matching those numbers here on the road. It also helped that they had five days off before the Canisius game. Just to show what the market thought of this team coming into the year, Quinnipiac has been a dog in every MAAC game but one (were -1.5 vs. Manhattan). 

The first meeting between these teams saw Iona blow a second half lead and fall in OT. I took the Gaels their next time out as they responded w/ a 15-pt win at Manhattan. Friday vs. Fairfield, they never trailed (shot 56.9%) and won despite the opponent sinking 12 of 25 three-pointers. That game, like this one, was a revenge spot. It's important to note that Iona averages over 86 PPG at home where they've only lost one time. In all three MAAC home games, they've topped 90 points! I look for the Gaels to exact revenge yet again here against an opponent that is due to start regressing. 10* Iona

8* Puck Line Vancouver (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a Puck Line Play only where I am taking the Canucks +1.5. Obviously, it shapes up as a big mismatch in Chicago, but that's where the extra goal and a half can come in handy. Furthermore, I don't think this is as big as a mismatch the oddsmakers seem to. Unlike in the East, there aren't a ton of great teams in the Western Conference. Minnesota is clearly the "best in the West," but there's a big dropoff after that. The Blackhawks are obviously contenders (as per usual), but the Canucks come in on an identical two-game win streak and have somehow climbed their way into playoff contention. I say Vancouver does no worse than a one-goal loss here.

The Canucks L5 games have all been decided by one goal margins. The first three were all losses. But they've since beating Nashville (1-0) and Florida (2-1). The team is now 8-1-3 its L12 games, meaning only one time during that stretch (which goes back to Christmas!) have they been beaten by multiple goals. There have been only two times during that entire stretch that they've allowed more than two goals in a game. The lone loss by multiple goals came at Calgary on 1.7 when they playing on the road in the second game of a back to back. Goaltender Ryan Millers has been a lot better of late w/ a fabulous .944 save percentage his L4 starts.

Chicago won its last game, 1-0. Before that, it was a 6-4 victory over terrible Colorado. Before that, it was B2B losses, one of them coming by a score of 6-0. Over their last 12 games, the Blackhawks have won by multiple goals only twice. They're giving up a relatively high number of shots as well (31.1 per game for the year). They were outshot 30-22 by Boston, yet still came away w/ the 1-0 victory thanks to Scott Darling. I would love it if Corey Crawford was called upon to start between the pipes tonight as he's been struggling (.876 save percentage L4 starts). Regardless of who is in goal for the 'Hawks, however, I like the added insurance w/ the Canucks here. 8* Puck Line Vancouver (+1.5)

10* Minnesota (7:05 ET): Denver rolled to a 123-98 victory over the Clippers last night. But that was at home and let us not forget how short-handed the Clips are right now (no Chris Paul, no Blake Griffin). So while the final margin of victory is still impressive, the opponent really was not. Tonight, without rest, the Nuggets now have to hit the road. They'll face a Minnesota team that while near the bottom of the Western Conference standings, is a lot better than its overall record. In fact, in terms of my own personal power rankings, there probably isn't a greater discrepancy between the ranking and WL record than what the T'wolves are currently sporting. Recently, they have shown signs of turning things around by covering six of their last seven. I'll lay the points here.

Minny also just beat the Clippers in their last game, 104-101. The fact that game was played Thursday gives a big advantage to them here, especially being at home. The T'wolves are off three straight road games here, but have won three straight at home, including impressive victories over both Houston and Oklahoma City. Their only loss on a recent four-game home stand came by two points. They are 6-1 ATS this season in home games where the total is 210 or higher. I love the young talent on hand here, particularly Karl Anthony-Towns, who went for 37 points and 12 rebounds on Thursday. An often leaky Nuggets defense likely will have no answer for him. 

Denver enjoyed its biggest lead in any game this season last night (35) and held a team under 100 points for the 1st time since December 8th. Yes, this is one of the worst defensive teams in the league as they allow 111.6 points per game.  They too have been hot (won 4 of 5), but they come to the Twin Cities w/o rest and a bit shorthanded. Both Gary Harris and Emmanuel Mudiay are unlikely to play. That's your starting backcourt right there. So it won't be as big as deal that the T'wolves are w/o PG Ricky Rubio (could be traded). This is also a double revenge spot for Minnesota as twice they've gone down to Denver this year, both games decided by three points or less. 10* Minnesota

10* Over Steelers/Patriots (6:40 ET): So after all the craziness of this NFL season, we wind up w/ the AFC Champ Game that I think most would have expected prior to the start of the campaign. The Steelers and Patriots did meet in the regular season, but little can be derived from that matchup considering Ben Roethlisberger did not play. For what it's worth, Pittsburgh did hang pretty tough w/ Landry Jones under center. It was a 20-16 game early in the fourth quarter. But that was at Heinz Field. The rematch takes place in Foxboro where the Pats almost never lose (24-4 SU L3 seasons). Despite being favored in all but two games this year (both w/o Tom Brady), NE has managed to go 13-3-1 ATS. But they really haven't played the most challenging slate of QB's either. Meanwhile, the Steelers' offensive and defensive numbers are a bit misleading due to red zone in/efficiciencies. I'm on the Over here.

Because he accounted for all 18 points LW against Kansas City, "some" are choosing to place Steelers' kicker Chris Boswell as the 4th "Killer B" alongside Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell. What foolishness. However, believe it or not, it wasn't the first time this year that Boswell made six field goals in a game. The other was late in the regular season at Cincinnati. The following week, Pittsburgh scored 31 points against a quality Ravens defense. What I'm getting at here is that red zone efficiency can be a very fluky statistic. Pittsburgh had six quality drives last week against a good KC defense, but just couldn't punch it in the end zone. One of the field goals was just a 22-yarder. The Steelers still rolled up almost 400 total yards LW and average 372.9 (7th) for the year. I'll call for them to score far more points this week even though they are going up against the #1 scoring defense in the league here.

New England only gives up 15.6 PPG, but they were actually 8th in yards allowed, so there's a bit of a bend but don't break going here. Something else that's helped the Patriots throughout the year is not really facing many top QB's. They faced Pittsburgh w/o Big Ben, so really Russell Wilson and Joe Flacco are the only "Pro Bowl level" signal callers they've seen. During this eight-game win streak of theirs, these are the QB's they've faced: Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Fitzpatrick (twice), Jared Goff, Flacco, Trevor Siemian and Matt Moore. Yikes. Not surprisingly, the last two times they gave up 23+ pts came against Wilson and Flacco. Of course, there's no real issues with a Patriots offense that comes in averaging nearly 28 PPG. They too will present a far greater challenge than what the Steelers' defense has had to deal w/ facing Matt Moore and Alex Smith in these playoffs. I thought the Steelers were very fortunate to get away w/ allowing only 12 point against Miami given the amount of yards allowed. Four times the Dolphins turned possession of the ball over on the Steelers side of the field. 10* Over Steelers/Patriots

10* Atlanta (3:00 ET): If it's true that "defense wins championships, either a) someone forgot to tell the Packers and Falcons or b) these two are in some real trouble. This year's NFC Championship Game has the highest total for a playoff game ever and the second highest total for any NFL game - ever! The number is absolutely merited too considering Green Bay has scored 30 or more points in six consecutive contests and Atlanta has done the same in five straight (actually 33 or more). So, more than likely, one side will simply have to outscore the other and I believe (at home, in the Dome), it's going to be the Falcons. This team was my *10* Game of the Month last week and I was more than pleased w/ what I saw. Their #1 ranked offense made Seattle look as bad as I've seen in the Russell Wilson-era. I think people don't realize just how good this offense is. Lay the points.

Falcons QB Matt Ryan is my choice for MVP. Granted, he'd never covered a playoff game in his career until last week. But, this is the best team - specifically offense - he's had to work with. For the year, Atlanta averages 33.9 PPG (tops in the league) and the number obviously goes up here in the Georgia Dome. Since losing here in Week 1 to Tampa Bay, there hasn't been a home game since where Ryan and company didn't score at least 30 points. They've scored 36 or more the previous four here. Green Bay's upset of Dallas last week was actually Atlanta's gain now that they get another home game. What a break!

The big story of the 24 hours leading up to this game is the reported flu bug that's hit the Green Bay locker room. Clearly, it couldn't have come at a worse time and QB Aaron Rodgers is one of those affected. Rodgers will obviously still play, but who he'll be throwing to is a different matter. The Packers' receiving corps is just ravaged right now due to injury. Three receivers, Jordy Nelson the most notable, are questionable at best for Sunday. Both Davante Adams and Geronimo Allen suffered injuries LW in Dallas. Whereas Atlanta essentially dominated their divisional round matchup, it felt as if Green Bay was fortunate to get out to such a big lead and hold on. In a game where offense clearly matters, the Packers coming into the Georgia Dome short-handed is a big deal. While neither team has a good defense, Atlanta's is slightly better. Green Bay ranking 31st out of 32 in pass defense is an ominous sign. While the Pack is better now than they were when they lost here by only one point earlier in the year, the Falcons are better too. 10* Atlanta

10* VCU (2:00 ET): VCU might be one of the best teams in the Atlantic 10 (Dayton is the best, IMO), but lately they have not played like it, dropping B2B games as favorites to Davidson and Fordham. The loss earlier this week to Fordham came in overtime and by just two points w/ the game-winning basket being scored at the buzzer. That game winner came after VCU's Justin Tillman missed the front end of a one and one (game was tied). Both losses did take place on the road. This afternoon, the Rams welcome LaSalle to the Commonwealth and I like their chances of bouncing back given not only the home record, but the Explorers' lousy defense. Lay the points.

VCU is 8-1 SU at home this year, outscoring foes by 17.6 points per game. The last time they played here, they destroyed George Washington by 30. But then came the loss to Davidson last Saturday as the team shot only 35% from the floor. The Rams never led against Fordham on Wednesday (battle of "Rams") as 22 turnovers proved costly in a game where they still outshot their opponents. Defensively, I believe VCU is more than fine as they rank in the top 54 nationally, allowing just 66.1 points per game. On the offensive end, LaSalle might be first in the A-10 in FG%, but VCU is a close second. The Rams had scored 81+ in three straight games before suffering the B2B losses.

LaSalle is all offense and no defense. They give up 84.9 PPG on the road, which is a pretty frightening number. They do come into this game tied for first place in the conference as they've won five in a row. But four of those wins have come at home, two of them against St. Louis and Duquesne. The L3 games have all seen the Explorers shoot the lights out (over 58% overall!), but that's not sustainable, especially against this VCU defense. Last year, these teams exchanged victories, the road team winning both times. So it's about time the host returned the favor.  I look for VCU to take advantage of LaSalle's leaky defense in this one. Another edge is they've had an extra day to prepare as LaSalle's last game took place Thursday (at home vs. Davidson), a game they still allowed 83 points. 10* VCU

10* Under Kings/Islanders (7:05 ET): Both playoff teams a year ago, the Kings and Islanders struggling this season, though not for the same reasons. It's relatively simple to address why Los Angeles has declined. On Opening Night, they lost goaltender Jonathan Quick for an indefinite period of time to a serious groin injury. While Peter Budaj has actually proven to be an adequate replacement between the pipes, it's clearly not the same. It also hasn't helped that the Kings' offense went doormant in the L2 games, scoring just three times total in home losses to Tampa Bay and San Jose. They are averaging only 2.1 goals per game on the road as well. The Isles come in off B2B shutout victories, but the Kings should (theoretically) match up well w/ them. Take the Under here.

Even w/o Quick, what the Kings still do better than anybody is limit the number of shots by their opponents. Currently, they are allowing a league-low 25.9 per game, which SHOULD result in you winning more often than not. But they've actually been above that average each of the L3 games. Still, as I mentioned before, Budaj is doing more than just a good job in place of Quick. His save percentage on the road is .930! The Kings still rank sixth in the league in goals allowed and are ninth in penalty killing. The problem then should be obvious and it's an offense that is 22nd in goals scored.  They've been held to two goals or less 22 times already and are 3-16-3 in those games. Their power play unit, which is 0 for its last 11, ranks 23rd for the year.

Goals should again be tough to come by here against the Islanders, who haven't allowed one their last two games, the last one coming after a coaching change. The back to back shutouts were much needed for a team that still resides in last place in the ultra-competitive Metropolitan Division. Unlike the Kings, the Isles tend to play a more wide-open brand of hockey that sees plenty of shots on both sides. What the two have in common, however, is awful power plays. The Isles are actually worse than LA, much worse in fact, as they rank 29th (next to last) and haven't scored w/ the man advantage since January 6th! They are 0 for 21 since and what's interesting is in two of the last six games, they had ZERO PP opportunities. However, they were 0 for 7 against Dallas Thursday. Ironically, they scored short-handed there in a game they allowed only 23 shots. Goaltender Thomas Griess has a .927 save percentage for the year. 10* Under Kings/Islanders

10* West Virginia (6:00 ET): I haven't even attempted to hide my affinity for Bob Huggins' West Virginia team this year. I've taken them multiple times already and with one exception (at Texas Tech), have always come out on the winning end. This evening sees them hitting the road, looking to bounce back from just their third loss of the season. Like the previous two, Wednesday's loss was close (by two points), but it was definitely the most shocking to date. As 16.5-pt favorites in Morgantown, they lost to Oklahoma in overtime. WVU's three losses this year have now come by a total of seven points, none by larger than a four-point margin. I realize Kansas State's "Octagon of Doom" is a tough place to win at, but the Mountaineers are just too good to drop B2B games. Lay the points.

Kansas State is off an impressive road win as they beat Oklahoma State 96-88 (+3) on Wednesday. Of course, West Virginia has already gone to Stillwater and won by 17. In KSU's win, they shot a blistering 56.3% from the floor. That's highly unlikely to be repeated here, even at home. Also, it's not a good sign that the Wildcats couldn't really shake the Pokes until late, even shooting as well as they did. They allowed 88 points. Nevertheless, they'll take it as they'd previously dropped three of four, including a home game to Baylor right after the Bears got whitewashed in Morgantown earlier in the week. Making matters more difficult here is the fact that PG Kamau Stokes left the Oklahoma State game w/ an ankle injury. If he can't go here (listed as questionable), good luck handling WVU's press.

Nicknamed "Press Virginia," the Mountaineers lead the country by forcing 23.8 TO's per game. They are #1 in TO margin and it's not even close as they're more than double the #2 team. Given the fact KSU could be w/o its starting point guard and already is turning it over on 18.6 percent of possessions in league play, this does not appear to be a favorable matchup for them. West Virginia lost to Oklahoma, in part, due to forcing only 12 turnovers. I expect them to amp up the pressure here. This is a deep team, one of only two in the country to grab at least 40% of its own misses at the offensive end as well. 10* West Virginia

10* Detroit (6:05 ET): A brutal 15-game stretch from 12.16-1.13 (went 4-11 SU) made it look like Stan Van Gundy's Pistons were in freefall. But they've since responded w/ B2B wins. Beating the Lakers by five is certainly nothing to "write home about," however, Wednesday's dominating performance against what has been a red hot Atlanta team certainly was. Here at home, Detroit won 118-95 as 2.5-pt home dogs. Now they turn around and host another team they'll likely be fighting with for playoff position. That would be the Wizards, who has been playing well, like Atlanta was. But a key (for me) in handicapping this matchup is that it's in the Motor City. Washington is just 5-13 SU on the road this year and that's after a three-point win over the sorry Knicks Thursday.

The Wiz come in riding a four-game SU/ATS win streak. They were the betting favorite in all four games, although just a slight one in each of the last three, which explains a 3-0 ATS mark despite two of the wins coming by only three points each. As you'd expect, John Wall is leading this charge w/ averages of 25+ points and 10+ assists per game. Offensively, the team has scored at least 100 points in nine consecutive games. But defensively, there are issues, particularly on the road where they give up 108.2 PPG. That's the primary reason for the subpar record away from D.C. and overall this team does not defend the three-point line well. At the same time, their own three-point shooting declines on the road, down to only 31.3 percent. Looking at the team's five road wins, none have come against an opponent w/ a winning record.

Detroit dominated Atlanta from the start on Wednesday, scoring a season-best 42 points in the first quarter and they never once trailed. But, make no mistake about it, defense will carry this team if it ends up going anywhere of consequence. They held Atlanta below 40 percent shooting and it should be noted that despite the recent rough stretch, the Pistons still rank a solid 12th in defensive efficiency (were much higher before the slide). This is also a revenge spot too for a game they allowed Washington to shoot 57.1% from the floor. That actually begat the 4-11 slide. The game was also in D.C. Furthermore, the Pistons are now a perfect 6-0 ATS this season when playing w/ exactly two days rest. Their average margin of victory in those games, including Wednesday's win over Atlanta, is 15.0 points per game. 10* Detroit

10* Kentucky (6:00 ET): These are the only two teams still w/o loss in SEC play. But as you can tell from the line, "not all unbeatens are created equal." While its obvious that Kentucky is the top team in its conference, a case could also be made that they are the top team in the country. The Wildcats come into Saturday ranked #5 in the country and have won six straight since their three-point loss to Louisville. Those six wins have all come in SEC play as they're outscoring foes by a whopping 20.6 points per game. Meanwhile, South Carolina might be ranked as well, but I'm not sure they're among the 35 best teams in the country, let alone top 25. Their avg MOV in conf play is less than nine points per game. I expect UK to roll here. Lay the points.

Coach Cal's team has failed to cover three in a row. They're off one of their closest calls so far as they only prevailed 88-81 in Starkville against Mississippi State as 14-pt favorites. The fact that MSU shot the ball so well (54.2%) is what kept them in the game. However, I'll point out that the Wildcats were up by as many as 17 in the second half. That was their highest shooting percentage allowed for the season and only the third time they allowed an opponent to shoot better than 50% from the floor (other two were N Carolina & UCLA). Offensively, there are no issues here. They've scored at least 87 pts in every league game while shooting 52.2%! Only UCLA is rated higher in offensive efficiency, nationally.

South Carolina has never had much success against Kentucky. Over the past two seasons, they are 0-3 SU/ATS against the Wildcats, losing by 15, 34 and 27. The most lopsided loss came here in Lexington where they're just 1-16 SU past 17 visits. I wouldn't be too worried about this price range either as UK is already 6-2 ATS this season laying 12.5 or more points at Rupp Arena. Kudos to the job HC Frank Martin is doing in Columbia, but his Gamecocks are in over their head in this one. This is not exactly a favorable spot either after having to play Florida on Tuesday. They grinded out a four-point win there (at home) despite shooting a horrible 29.4% from the floor. They are now shooting just 38.1% in SEC play. Anywhere near that average here and this will quickly turn into "blowout city." 10* Kentucky

8* Texas A&M (12:00 ET): This is the Aggies' second consecutive game being favored at home. They lost (by two) to Arkansas on Tuesday. That marked their second consecutive loss as they've started 1-5 in SEC play. I do not see them dropping B2B games here in College Station, so early this afternoon I'll be laying the points as they welcome in a Georgia team that's probably a bit overconfident coming off a 10-point win over Vanderbilt. That game took place in Athens, however. While the 'Dawgs might be 3-0 ATS on the SEC road thus far, I don't see them keeping that up. Last year, they were thrashed by A&M, losing by 34 at home. While I'm sure the players remember, the revenge angle is superseeded here by likelihood of an Aggies' bounce-back on their home court.

In fact, Texas A&M is just 1-7 ATS its last eight games. They've been favored in the L2 games, dropping both outright. Last Saturday saw them go down at Mississippi State, 67-59 as 2.5-pt chalk. They dominated the board in that game (38-23 rebounding edge), but lost due to 22 turnovers and horrific (1 of 14) shooting from three-point range. They actually jumped out to a 10-0 lead to start the game. It was another blown lead Tuesday as they blew a 12-pt second half lead vs. Arkansas. Again, the team failed to shoot the ball well from three-point range (6 of 20). But, overall, the team has shot the ball this year (47.1%) and while depth has been a concern for HC Billy Kennedy (lost four starters from LY's Sweet 16 team), it's not as if they've been playing all that poorly.

A&M can defend as here at home, they're giving up an average of just 62 PPG. It is Georgia that really doesn't shoot well from three-point range, at least on the road where they're just 27.7% for the season. I'll point out that A&M has already faced both unbeaten SEC schools (Kentucky, South Carolina) and was actually FAVORED against a top 20 Arizona team on a neutral floor. The market has simply moved too far against them for this one as simply can't see them failing to cover for a third straight time as a short favorite. They are still 38-8 SU L46 home games. 8* Texas A&M

10* WI-Milwaukee (8:00 ET): Have we really reached the point of the College Basketball season where we can start talking about revenge? How time flies! In a result you likely missed (unless you're a HUGE fan of Horizon League basketball), Cleveland State beat WI-Milwaukee at home on New Year's Eve, 62-53 as five-point faves. The Vikings shot 53.5% from the floor in that game, 7 of 17 from three-point range and made 9 of 11 free throws. That's a highly irregular efficient day on the offensive end for this team. Asking CSU to win on the road seems a bit much given their 1-9 SU record in "true" road affairs. They are also just 3-10 ATS as underdogs. Having to only lay the shortest of numbers, WI-Milwaukee will get its revenge tonight.

Admittedly, little has gone right for WI-Milwaukee this season. They have just one win in Horizon League play thus far (66-58 over N Kentucky) and that's their ONLY win in the L10 games period. After blowing an 11-pt lead in the second half vs. Wright State last Saturday, the Panthers fell on the road to IL-Chicago on Tuesday, 71-57 as four-point dogs. That was actually their largest margin of defeat so far in conference play. Each of the L2 years have seen they cover easily here at home against Cleveland State. Last year was a 34-point win while 2015 brought an outright upset as four-point dogs. The Panthers have been far more competitive at home, outscoring opponents and holding them to just 65 PPG.

After beating WI-Milwaukee, Cleveland State promptly lost its last four games. Twice they were held to 54 points or less. But then on Monday they pulled a somewhat shocking upset, winning at Oakland 76-65 as 13.5-pt dogs. That was their first and only "true" road win thus far. They received a career-high 32 points from Rob Edwards, but expecting a repeat performance seems a little "fool-hardy." The Vikings had a strong showing from three-point range in the upset, but are actually dead last among Horizon League teams in 3-pt%. Little has gone right for Milwaukee thus far, but this is a game that they should - and WILL - win. 10* WI-Milwaukee

10* Buffalo (7:05 ET): The Red Wings pulled the proverbial "rabbit out of the hat" Wednesday night, coming from behind to defeat Boston. They trailed 4-1 after the first period and despite being outshot for the game (33-25) were eventually able to prevail in a shootout. They never led until the game was over. Despite the come from behind theatrics, Detroit still isn't a very good team. Yes, they've won three straight, but they still are second from the bottom in the Atlantic. Wednesday included obviously, they've also still had some good fortune go their way as their six shootout wins are a league-high. Their power play is a league worst and they are just 23rd in both goals scored and allowed. Fade them here.

The Sabres are the one team below the Red Wings in the Atlantic standings. They are off a 4-3 loss at Toronto Tuesday. Their albatross is a 30th ranked penalty kill, but that shouldn't be a problem here facing the league's worst power play. The Sabres' own power play ranks sixth, so perhaps that will be the difference here. While Detroit is a perfect 6-0 in shootouts this season, Buffalo has had the opposite luck, going 1-5 in them. Their nine so called "loser points" (OT/shootout losses) are tied for a league high. If only a few of those games had gone their way, then they'd likely be ahead of Detroit in the division.

Sabres goalie Robin Lehner had a bad night against the Maple Leafs, but overall has had a solid season w/ a 2.54 goals against average and .920 save percentage. Detroit appears to be going w/ Petr Mrazek, whose numbers are spotty at best, particularly an .880 save percentage his L4 games. These teams have exchange road victories so far this season, so it's probably about time that home ice advantage came into play. Note that all three victories during Detroit's current win streak came at home. Again, this is a great time to "sell high" on this club. 10* Buffalo

10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): The Hornets had lost five in a row prior to beating Portland 107-85 on Wednesday as 5.5-pt favorites. Pertinent to our discussion here is the fact that all five Hornets losses occurred out on the road, two of them at San Antonio and Houston. Tonight, they'll draw another top five team, but this time at home. Toronto suffered what has to be considered somewhat of a shocking loss their last time out, falling 94-89 at Philadelphia. It was their lowest scoring output since their own loss at San Antonio back on Jan 3rd. While the Raptors are 5-1 ATS this year off a SU loss as a favorite, I don't see Charlotte losing again after (finally) creating some positive momentum (there's that word again) in their last game.

The Raptors could very well be a bit short-handed here. DeMarre Carroll (neck), Lucas Noguiera (concussion) and Patrick Patterson (knee) are all listed as questionable. That puts a lot of pressure on the starting guard duo of DeMar DeRozam and Kyle Lowry. Toronto shot only 40% against Philadelphia and was outrebounded. Defensively, this team is giving up 105.7 PPG on the road this year.

Charlotte's own defense got back on track against the Blazers. It was the first time holding an opponent below 100 pts in 2017. They'll be tested by the #2 offense in efficiency, but overall the Hornets remain eighth in defensive efficiency. They hosted Toronto once this year (only meeting so far) and lost by two thanks to the Raptors making 21 of 22 free throw attempts. The Hornets shot only 40% from the floor in that game. Charlotte is definitely better than its record from where I sit where I'm not sure you can say the same about Toronto, who couldn't have asked for its first half to go any better. Must win for the home team? I look for them to deliver. 10* Charlotte

8* Wright State (7:00 ET): What am I missing here? Wright State has already beaten Detroit once this year, on the road, and did it as 6.5-pt road favorites. The final score was 85-72. Therefore, I'm trying to figure out this line for Friday's rematch as the Raiders are essentially being asked to lay the same number on their home floor. I get that Detroit comes in off B2B wins, one of them an impressive upset at Oakland. But this line appears to be way off from where I sit as prior to those B2B wins, Detroit was just 2-14 SU for the season w/ one of those wins coming in the season opener against a non-DI school. Lay the points here. 

Wright State had dropped B2B games before playing WI-Milwaukee last Saturday. They beat the Panthers 70-67. While they definitely had to rally late to do so (never led in the first half), it's always impressive to win on the conference road, especially when playing there for the second time in three nights. It's a much better situation here for Wright State as they've been off since Saturday while Detroit had to play Monday. This will be the Raiders' first home game since suffering an outright loss to Youngstown State on 1.7. They're still 7-2 SU at the Nutter Center, however, and outscoring visitors by 13.3 points per game. Detroit is just 1-9 SU on the road, allowing 86.2 points per game. It's no surprise (to me) that Wright State achieved its highest scoring game in Horizon League play thus far at the Titans' expense.

Detroit had lost five in a row before picking up its lone road win of the last Friday, a real shocker over Oakland as they were 18.5-pt dogs in that one. They followed that up by winning Monday, 87-71 at home over Youngstown State. Again though, this is a team w/ only four wins all year. They allowed Wright State to shoot 55% from the floor in the first meeting, including 12 of 21 from three-point range. The Raiders are shooting better than 40% from behind the arc here at home. Meanwhile, I would not expect Detroit to have a good night from three-point range as they're only 30% for the year and WSU holds visiting teams to 29%.  8* Wright State

10* Over Mavericks/Heat (7:35 ET): Scoring is way up this year in NBA. But neither of the two teams involved here have really played any kind of significant role in that. In fact, they happen to be the two lowest scoring teams in the league currently. Miami ranks 29th in the league in offensive efficiency (ahead of only Philadelphia), but has scored 108 and 109 pts respectively in their last two games. Dallas is dead last in the league in points per game (95.7), but actually up to 25th in offensive efficiency. Even though neither team averages 100 PPG, you have to think that this total is too low given the level of scoring we've seen in the league this year. Both teams also happen to struggle defensively. Take the Over.

Dallas is allowing opponents to shoot better than 47% overall for the year and over 40% from three-point range. On the road, those numbers get slightly worse and as a result they give up 102.7 points per game. Miami allows 103.0 PPG at home. Both teams are also off upset wins; Dallas in Chicago and Miami here at home over Houston. The Heat's win saw them score 109 and get a little bit of good fortune as the usually high-flying Rockets shot only 40% for the game. That was a break. Even though Dallas is clearly inferior offensively compared to the Rockets, they should still shoot better. In each of its last four games, including the 99-98 upset of Chicago, the Mavs have shot between 46% and 48% from the floor.

This three-game win streak that Dallas is on is their longest of the season. They beat Phoenix at a neutral site, Minnesota at home (had just played T'wolves the week earlier) and then Chicago by a single point. While they still regularly see sub-200 pt totals, this is a really low number for Miami. There have been only two games since 12.10 for the Heat that the total has been below 200 pts. Both games went Over. Each of them took place here on South Beach. While the Under is 4-0 the L4 matchups between these two teams, I think it's time for things to go the other way as totals this low don't pop up on the board every day. 10* Over Mavericks/Heat

10* Louisiana Tech (7:30 ET): Right now, everyone in Conference USA is chasing first place Middle Tennessee, who is probably one of the top so-called "mid majors" in the entire country. One of the three teams only one game back is Louisiana Tech and I believe the Bulldogs have the best shot out of the three to catch the Blue Raiders. They won't be playing MTSU until the end of the month (in Murfreesboro), but between then and now they have some favorable draws, including this one at home vs. Rice. While sharing the same overall record as La Tech (12-6 SU), Rice is only 2-3 SU in conference play (La Tech is 4-1). The matching overall records is a bit misleading when you consider that twice in the last month La Tech has lost a one-point game. Lay the points here.

One of those one-point losses for La Tech came the last time they played here in Ruston as they fell 69-68 to UTSA as 16.5-pt favorites. Since then, they've rattled off consecutive victories on the road over Charlotte and Old Dominion. The latter came Saturday as short one-point underdogs. The Bulldogs shot a blistering 56.8% from the floor and while that will be difficult to match here, Rice is not good defensively as they allow 76.6 PPG on the road, including better than 40% three-point shooting! Despite the shocking loss to UTSA two Saturdays ago, La Tech is still 9-2 SU in Ruston and outscoring opponents here by an average of 20.6 points per game. They average over 80 PPG while giving up just 58.9. Perhaps the three-point line will be the difference here as at home, La Tech is allowing its opponents to shoot only 29.4% from behind the arc.

Rice has already played Middle Tennessee, at home, and lost 80-77. That was a pretty admirable showing back on 1.5, but now for the first time in 17 days the Owls have to hit the road. They avoided what would have been an 0-3 home stand w/ a 101-79 thrashing of North Texas on Saturday. To be clear, North Texas is very bad. I mentioned earlier that La Tech shot 56.8% from the floor in their last game. Well, they were at 61.2% the game before that. So Rice's porous defense is in trouble here. La Tech is actually one of only 10 teams in the country currently ranked in the top 50 in FG% offense and defense. What made Saturday's shooting so impressive is that ODU came in ranked fourth nationally in points allowed! 10* Louisiana Tech

10* Under Rangers/Maple Leafs (7:35 ET): Look at this total! Of course, there's a good reason why they did so for this matchup and that's due the stretch of high scoring affairs involving both the Rangers and Maple Leafs. The Rangers' previous result was a 7-6 loss to Dallas that I know made me look bad as I had the Under (6.0). The Over is now 8-1-1 in the Blueshirts' last 10 games as they've allowed 41 goals while at the same time scoring 43. Toronto is 6-0-1 Over its L7 games having scored at least four times in all but one of those games. But in spite of these recent results, I'm still going Under here. This total is just too high.

So far this year, there have actually been seven games with a total of 6.0 or higher. Five of them have stayed Under. Over the last several seasons, it had become increasingly rare to find games with O/U lines of six goals or higher. One of the seven games was the last meeting between these two teams and the final score was 4-2 Maple Leafs. That game took place just last week. It was actually one of the Rangers' lower-scoring efforts in the last 10 games. As a matter of fact, it marked just one of the two times during that stretch that they haven't scored at least four goals. Toronto, meanwhile, managed to score four times despite only 27 shots, which is high percentage.

Rangers' goalie Henrik Lundqvist has probably never played worse in his career than he is right now. But I have to believe that there is some of the "old Henrik" left. Despite a brutal stretch between the pipes, his save percentage is still above .900 for the year. He can't be any worse than he was Tuesday against Dallas when he allowed seven goals on 27 shots before being pulled for the final period. While Toronto has averaged 3.8 gpg its last five contests, they've done so while averaging only 27.2 shots per game. As is the case w/ Lundqvist, that percentage HAS to start regressing to the mean. The Leafs will start Frederik Andersen in goal and his save percentage of .912 for the year should be adequate enough. 10* Under Rangers/Maple Leafs

8* Iowa (7:00 ET): For a third consecutive season, Maryland has started the season at 15-2 (SU) or better. This year's squad is now 16-2 SU after going to Illinois on Saturday and "upsetting" the slightly favored Illini (line was Maryland +3.5), 62-56. It was the Terps' third straight outright win as an underdog here in Big 10 play. That runs their record to an impressive 6-0 ATS as a dog this season! But, as we'll see, this has been quite the fortunate team so far in 2016-17. Meanwhile, we cannot say the same for Iowa, who is off an awful 35-point road loss to Northwestern on Saturday. What made that defeat particularly frustrating is the Hawkeyes were coming off an impressive upset of Purdue earlier in the week. I'll call for a bounce back here.

Though 16-2 straight up, Maryland has had plenty of close calls go their way. Eight wins have come by six points or less, including the last two. They also won at Michigan 77-70 on January 7th as eight-point underdogs. They followed that up w/ a home win over Indiana, 75-72, as 1.5-pt dogs. Turnover margin and free throw attempts, both roughly a 2:1 margin in favor of the Terrapins, were the keys there. Saturday in Illinois saw them come from behind to win. They were able to dominate the paint and the fact the Illini went scoreless for seven minutes in the second half was key as well. As good as Maryland likely feels about itself right now, this is their third time playing on the road in the L4 games. They continue to be w/o two players in the rotation - Dion Wiley and Michal Cekovsky.

Fran McCaffery is infamously one of the more ornery coaches in the country, so I'm assuming he blew his gasket following his team's loss in Evanston Saturday. Nothing went right for the Hawkeyes as they shot just 35.3% from the floor while allowing Northwestern to shoot 59.7%. There's virtually no way that they'll face such a lopsided shooting discrepancy again here. Remember, Iowa beat Purdue on this floor last week. I don't care what the standings say; Purdue is a better team than Maryland. The Hawkeyes shot 56.7% from the floor in that game. They average 88.7 PPG at home for the year. Peter Jok, who leads the Big 10 in scoring, is off a season-low four points in the last game. He'll lead the rebound tonight. 8* Iowa

10* Boston (8:05 ET): Though the Bruins lost their last time out (shutout!), they remain in the coveted second place position in the Atlantic, a division that beyond Montreal is wide open right now. Second place guarantees a team home ice advantage in a first round playoff series, even though whomever winds up 2nd in the Atlantic likely will be no better than the sixth best team in the conference! (Metropolitan Division is much stronger). There's obviously a ton of hockey still to be played, but the Bruins are in a good spot. Meanwhile, I can't say the same for the Red Wings, whose long string of playoff appearances is in serious jeopardy. Even after B2B wins, they are second from the bottom in the Atlantic. Boston has dominated them in the past (won 8 of past 10 H2H meetings) and I'm on the Bruins here.

While Boston was shutout by the Islanders on Monday, note they had just scored six times in their previous game, which was an easy win at the Flyers' expense. The B's have alternated losses and wins over their last seven games, so if the current pattern holds, they'll be a winner tonight. While record and goal differential have the Bruins as the definition of average, they are 6th in goals allowed and have the second best penalty killing unit in the league. That PK isn't likely to get challenge here by the league's worst power play (11.5%). Boston goalie Tuukka Rask has struggled somewhat of late, but still has a .923 save percentage for the year and has typically been at his best on the road. Over the L5 games, Boston is outshooting its opponents on average of 36.2 to 23.4, so you'd figure they'd have more wins during that time.

Detroit is off B2B wins over Pittsburgh and Montreal here on home ice, the latter of the shutout variety. But goaltending has typically been an issue for this club this season w/ a collective save percentage of only .905. They are bottom 10 in the league in both goals scored and allowed. They have a losing record on home ice that was even worse before the wins over the Pens and Habs obviously. It was a kind of ugly game vs. Montreal Monday w/ only 38 total shots on goal (20-18 Red Wings). Provided the Bruins continue to get the puck on net at a high rate, winning here should not prove difficult. 10* Boston

8* Oral Roberts (8:00 ET): Last Thursday, Oral Roberts won for the 1st time in Summit League play, downing South Dakota State 94-88 as five-point home favorites. They followed that up by losing on Saturday, here at home, to IUPUI. The final score Saturday was 91-85 w/ ORU being a slight (3.5-point) favorite and it was the first time in 11 matchups the Golden Eagles lost to IUPUI. At first blush, it might seem curious to find a team w/ a 5-14 SU record favored yet again, but take note that this is actually the fourth consecutive game that Oral Roberts has been laying points. While just 1-2 ATS previously, the oddsmakers are really saying something about South Dakota w/ this line. What they're saying is the Coyotes aren't very good. Lay the short number.

Now South Dakota has been finding plenty of success here in Summit League play. In fact, they're 6-0 against the spread in league games thus far. But they've gotten to play the L3 games all at home. Saturday saw them overcome 37.3% shooting to defeat Ft. Wayne 66-63 as 2.5-point dogs. That score is VERY low-scoring by Summit League standards and the Coyotes are highly unlikely to prevail again tonight were they to shoot the ball so poorly. Oral Roberts comes in averaging 82.3 PPG at home and is off B2B games where they shot 50%. Saturday against Ft. Wayne, South Dakota got a career-best 30 points from Matt Mooney and enjoyed a 20-8 edge in FT's made. Those numbers likely won't repeat themselves here. The Coyotes also actually had to rally back from an eight-point halftime deficit in that game.

Oral Roberts will have to shore things up defensively as three of their previous four opponents have shot 52% or better from the floor. Fortunately, South Dakota is one of the weaker teams offensively in the Summit League. Also, this being a home game for Oral Roberts is huge. While they're an unsightly 0-9 SU on the road, they're 5-2 at home. South Dakota is just 3-5 SU on the road (9-1 at home). It should be noted that Oral Roberts' won loss record is a bit misleading as according to RPI, it's been one of the 10 toughest in the country. This is also a triple revenge spot as South Dakota managed to take both meetings last year and the second of the 2014-15 season. 8* Oral Roberts

10* Toronto (7:05 ET): So often, we find NBA teams playing in the second game of a back to back getting undervalued by the oddsmakers and public alike. That certainly appears to be the case tonight w/ unrested Toronto traveling to Philadelphia. Last night, the Raptors prevailed in Brooklyn, 119-109, which depending on when you bet the game could have either been an ATS win or loss. The 76ers have moved past the Nets in my own personal rankings, but they're not that much better and thus I feel they are getting way too much "credit" in this spot. It could be the fact that they're 7-1 ATS L8 games or simply that Toronto played last night. But, whatever the reason, I'll lay the points.

Toronto has won and covered four straight itself, all against Atlantic Division foes. They've beaten Brooklyn twice, Boston and the Knicks. That leaves only Philly to complete the sweep. Certainly, the Raptors have had no problems beating up on division foes all year as they're 9-0 SU (8-1 ATS) vs. the rest of the Atlantic w/ an average margin of victory of +13.1 points per game. Going back to the start of the 2014-15 season, the Raptors are a pretty amazing 34-7 SU vs. division foes. Philadelphia is the one in particular they've dominated, going a perfect 10-0 straight up and 8-2 against the spread. They've averaged 122.5 PPG in a pair of wins over them earlier this season. Given that Toronto is third in the league in net efficiency rating (1st offensively), it is really shocking that this line isn't higher. The Raptors have been favored by at least five in each of their previous four games and again, covered the spread every time.

The 76ers are not only 7-1 ATS their last eight games, but they've also won straight up SIX times during this stretch. It's clearly the best basketball we've seen from this franchise in a long time. Monday afternoon, they surprised Milwaukee w/ a 113-104 upset as 8.5-pt dogs. But, make no mistake about it, they are still one of the worst teams in the league. Especially on the offensive end where they are the ONLY team in the league currently averaging less than a point per possession. So w/ Toronto being #1 in offensive efficiency, this looks like a bad matchup. Another bad matchup here (from the 76ers' perspective) lies at the points guard position. The Raptors gave Kyle Lowry the night off yday, so he'll be rested here. Meanwhile, Philly is still w/o TJ McConnell. 10* Toronto

10* South Dakota State (7:00 ET): From a bettors' perspective, there are obviously two desirable outcomes when taking an underdog. One is they can simply cover the spread. The other is winning straight up. But don't tell any of that the few brave enough to call themselves "South Dakota State backers" this season. The Jackrabbits are an unfathomable 0-10 against the spread when getting points. Overall, they're 3-14 at the betting window, which is quite miserable, but that also means the record as a favorite is actually 3-4. Tonight, they find themselves in the "dreaded" underdog role again, but I'll step in and take them w/ what I feel is an inflated number.

The opponent here is IUPUI, who didn't need the points (+3.5) in pulling off a minor upset at Oral Roberts on Saturday. One of the big reasons I like South Dakota State in this spot is that they've been off since Thursday. That gives them two extra days to prepare here. Prior to beating Oral Roberts, IUPUI had dropped three straight Summit League contests, including an outright loss here at home exactly one week ago to Nebraska-Omaha. Saturday was a big win for the Jaguars as it snapped a 10-game losing streak to Oral Roberts. I cannot see them shooting the ball as well tonight as they did on Saturday when they made 54% of their total field goal attempts.

Neither of these teams are good defensively, so that's another reason why the points look so attractive. IUPUI allows 77.3 points per game while South Dakota State allows 77.9. This will be the most points that SDSU has gotten in any conference game thus far. I think it's important to note that their last three losses have all been by eight points or less. Having failed to cover six straight games, there's now some value on the Jackrabbits. Over the last two seasons, they were favored to beat IUPUI in all four meetings (went 3-1 SU/ATS), so being the underdog is new territory here. The added time off should pay dividends. Over the L3 seasons, they are 7-3 SU when playing w/ five or six days rest. IUPUI has allowed three of its last four opponents to shoot at least 50% from the floor, so expect SDSU to find success offensively tonight. 10* South Dakota State

10* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): I figured that it would be pretty rare to find the Lakers favored. But, in fact, this will be the 11th time its happened this season. While that may not seem like a lot (it's only 25% of their total games played), the fact that this is one of the worst teams in the league suggests they've somehow been overvalued. But I don't believe that to be the case here tonight as they welcome in a Nuggets team that quite frankly isn't very good either. Denver is feeling a "mile high" here after B2B wins over Indiana and Orlando where they tallied 265 total pts. The Lakers defense may give me pause, but catching the Nuggets in the second game of a back to back is advantageous. Lay the points.

The Lakers come into this game as losers of four straight. Three of those losses have been by double digits. But they were at least close Saturday vs. Detroit, losing by just five. I was actually on the Pistons there and they covered the short number. While the defense has never been great for this team all season, it was the lack of offense that hurt them against Detroit. For the fourth straight time, they failed to score 100 pts. But that should change here against a foe that is alongside them among the worst defensive teams in the league. Denver actually gives up MORE points per game than the Lakers at 111.2. Only Brooklyn and Phoenix are allowing more PPG currently.

The Nuggets have been lights out offensively these L2 games. They shot almost 58% overall against the Pacers and Magic and while that sounds troubling for a young Lakers team that often struggles to defend, the fact is I do not believe for a second that Denver can sustain its recent offensive production. Nor do I believe they will be able to sustain a current six-game win streak here at Staples Center (when facing the Lakers). In addition to playing w/o rest, making the Nuggets' task tougher tonight will be the absence of starting SG Gary Harris, who sprained his ankle in last night's win. Do I often stump for teams being undervalued in the second game of a back to back? Yes, but Denver is just 1-6 SU when playing w/o rest this season. 10* LA Lakers

10* Under Stars/Rangers (7:05 ET): I believe this is the first game all season that the oddsmakers have opened a total at 6.0. That number is too high in my estimation and thus I'll jump in w/ an Under play. The Rangers have admittedly had goaltending issues thus far in 2017, while Dallas has always had an issue between the pipes. But a return to form should be in the cards for Henrik Lundqvist as Dallas scored only one time in its loss to Buffalo last night and is 17th in the league in goals per game. The Stars slowing down the Rangers' offensive attack seems a bit more of a challenge, but note when these teams met just last month (w/ the same goaltending matchup of Lundqvist vs. Antti Niemi), it was a 2-0 final (in favor of NY).

The Rangers are probably no worse than the sixth best team in the league right now, but unfortunately their just fourth in the own division, which happens to be the loaded Metropolitan. It seems as if every team in the Metro has rattled off some kind of impressive win streak this season, but for the Rangers, B2B losses have them in danger in falling behind the leaders even further. Over the L3 games, they've given up a total of 13 goals, which is obviously a lot. Shockingly, Lundqvist was in goal for all three games. But his track record would suggest that a bounce back performance is imminent. Back on December 15th, he shut out the Stars, making 27 saves. This sounds like it will be a physical game w/ the Rangers looking for revenge on Cody Eakin, whose hard hit on Lundqvist back on 12.15 knocked the Rangers netminder out of the game for six minutes and also earned himself a four-game suspension.

Scoring has been way down for Dallas this year and that's why they've gone from Central Division winners to likely also-rans. They've allowed four or more goals in five of their past seven games, plus nine total in the last two. They do have the worst penalty killing unit in the league. But despite all of this, I expect them to play tighter defensively tonight. Niemi does have a .921 save percentage vs. Eastern Conference teams. Lundqvist has also been at his best vs non-conf foes at .921. The Under is 12-4 this year for Dallas if they allowed 4+ goals last game and 4-1 in the second night of a back to back. 10* Under Stars/Rangers

8* Iona (7:00 ET): The Gaels are looking to rebound from yet another surprising MAAC loss here. Saturday saw them go down as seven-point road favorites, in overtime, to lowly Quinnipiac. They're on the road again Tuesday, but laying a shorter number against a Manhattan team that's off a close win over Rider here at home. The Jaspers were able to win Friday despite the absence of one key reserve and preseason MAAC second-teamer Rich Williams, who has yet to play at all this season. These conference rivals are obviously no strangers to one another having met five times over the previous two seasons. While Manhattan was able to pull an upset back in the 2015 MAAC Tourney, Iona has won all four regular season matchups. I'll lay the short number here.

The big reason Manhattan was able to win on Friday was that they got a career-best 35 points from Zane Waterman. While Waterman is the Jaspers' leading scorer, that kind of production probably cannot be counted upon for a second straight game. While nether team shot the ball well Friday, Manhattan was able to beat Rider due in large part to a +11 edge in FT's made. Also, it was their second straight game having to rally from a halftime deficit at home. Last Tuesday they were behind Niagara at the break before coming out and shooting a blistering 58.2% as a team in the 2H. Defense remains an issue for the Jaspers as they are giving up 78.6 points per game. They were also outrebounded by Rider on Friday.

Iona certainly is no stranger to playing on the road. In fact, they've played only FIVE home games thus far. Could fatigue be setting in? Possibly, but I don't think the spot tonight will be too much to overcome for the Gaels. They blew a late second half lead against Quinnipiac, who by the way also beat Manhattan already. It also didn't help that Iona shot only 7 of 23 from three-point range. Things really fell apart in OT, but considering the team still averages over 78 PPG for the season, scoring points should NOT be an issue tonight. With only two double digit scorers on its roster, Manhattan should have a tough time keeping up here. 8* Iona

8* Toledo (7:00 ET): Both MAC West rivals will be looking to rebound from back to back losses here, but the situations may not be as similar as you think. Whereas Toledo is off two straight losses on the road, BG just dropped a pair at home and by larger margins. Now the Falcons are the road team and it's tough to like their chances after watching them score just 52 and 53 points in those consecutive defeats. Toledo was actually a road favorite in both of its losses last week, at Western and Central Michigan, so it looks like the market may be short-changing them a bit for this home date. They swept Bowling Green last year. Lay the points.

Last Tuesday, Bowling Green was absolutely destroyed by Eastern Michigan, 81-53. Though for the 1st half that game was relatively close, the numbers still "tell the story" and that's they allowed EMU to shoot better than 58 percent from the floor (!) while making only 33% of their own attempts. It wasn't quite as ugly Saturday vs. Northern Illinois, but the Falcons still lost a pick 'em game at home by 17 pts. It's really hard to like their chances going out on the road where they're 1-6 SU this season. That one win did come in MAC play, but at Ball State, a significantly weaker opponent than what they'll face here. They've lost five straight times to their I-75 rival and last won here in Toledo back in 2011.

Defense was a major issue for Toledo last week, but the Rockets should simply have too much firepower tonight. Incredibly, Western Michigan shot 70% against the Rockets last Tuesday. No opponent will shoot that high of a percentage against them the rest of the year. Over the weekend, not once did they lead at Central Michigan, giving up 96 pts in the process. Falling behind 11-0 out of the gate really doomed them there. But this is a team that's still 7-1 SU at home this year, outscoring visiting teams by an impressive margin of 15.6 points per game. Given that BGSU just scored 52 and 53 points in its two games LW, I don't think defense will be an issue for Toledo tonight.  8* Toledo

10* Golden State (8:05 ET): Both of LY's NBA Finalists snapped six-game ATS losing streaks their last time out. Cleveland won 120-108 at Sacramento while Golden State blew out Detroit 127-107 here at home. But, without a doubt, the streak that the Dubs are more concerned with here is their four straight losses to the Cavaliers. Three of those infamously took place in LY's Finals. The most recent was on X-Mas Day as they blew a double digit lead in the fourth quarter and lost by one, again done in by Kyrie Irving. But this go-around, the situation greatly favors them. Not only have they had one extra day to prepare compared to Cleveland, but the Cavs are also wrapping up a six-game road trip here. Lay the points.

The Warriors might be 1-6 ATS their L7 games, but being a double-digit fave in every time has played a large role in that. The only loss that they've suffered since Christmas was a game vs. Memphis where they blew a 19-pt fourth quarter lead. Certainly, you have to imagine this a matchup where they will not be lacking for motivation. Last year on MLK Day, they destroyed the Cavaliers (in Cleveland) 132-98. Since taking that 3-1 lead in LY's Finals, they are 0-4 SU/ATS vs. the Cavs. But with the addition of Kevin Durant this year, the Dubs may even be stronger than they were last season. A big difference moving forward is that they will not be burdened w/ the silly chase of a relatively meaningless regular season wins record. Not only are the Warriors #2 in offensive efficiency currently, they are #2 defensively as well!

Cleveland has major depth issues going on right now (no backup point guard, no JR Smith) and has really slipped defensively this year. While they actually give up slightly less points per game, in terms of points per possession, the Cavs are clearly inferior. Whereas the Warriors rank #2 in defensive efficiency, the Cavs are only tied for 12th. LeBron and company are also just 11-7 SU/7-11 ATS on the road this year. Tonight marks the most rest that Golden State has had coming into any game all season! When these teams met on X-Mas, the Warriors were playing their third road game in four nights out East. Now, the proverbial shoe is on the other foot. 10* Golden State

8* UL Monroe (8:00 ET): This is a very tough spot for favored Georgia Southern. They are coming off a huge win at UL Lafayette, 81-76 as nine-point underdogs. The win leaves the Eagles as the Sun Belt's lone unbeaten in conference play (4-0). Tonight, they hit the road again (second road game in three days!) to play the only SBC team w/o a win in league play. That would be UL Monroe. But please do not make the mistake of discounting the Warhawks chances in this one (I'm certainly not!). While 0-4 SU in league play thus far, three of those losses have been quite close, including one they just suffered here at home in overtime to Georgia State on Saturday. Incredibly, that was their third OT loss already this season (two in conf play!). I think it's time for this team to break through w/ an upset. Take the points.

The Warhawks had not lost at home before Saturday. Had their shooting not gone ice cold in overtime, perhaps they would still be unbeaten. I have to admit that I am a little concerned about the fact the team is shooting just 37.9% from the floor in conference play. But the Georgia State game was the first one that took place at home. Here at Fant-Ewing Coliseum, the Warhawks are shooting better than 50% for the year including 45% from three-point range. So, I'll call for a big bounce back offensively here. Last season, they beat Ga Southern on this floor, 83-76, shooting 54.1%. Their home ATS record is 17-9 the L3 seasons.

Beating the team that's perceived as the Sun Belt's best (UL Lafayette) was huge for Georgia Southern. It was their fifth win in a row and seventh in the last eight games overall. The only loss during the stretch came by just two points at Hampton. However, the last three wins all have been by five points or less and they've given up an average of 79 points per game. That's a difficult, if not impossible, way to sustain success. They had to rally back from a halftime deficit to defeat LA Lafayette. It was a 51-point effort in the second half, something that's hard to come by. Two keys to the Eagles pulling that upset were a) LA Lafayette going only 3 of 18 from three-point range and b) GSU making 16 more free throws. 8* UL Monroe

8* Los Angeles (4:05 ET): The sense of urgency for the Kings has in no way lessened since I last played them (and won!). In Friday's analysis, I went through their current standing in the Western Conference pecking order (5th in the Pacific, 8th overall). Despite beating the Jets (again, as I said they would) two nights ago, four teams remain within two points of LA for that coveted last playoff spot. Tonight, it's a non-conference opponent that they'll host. Tampa Bay, like Los Angeles, has largely been a disappointment this year due to injuries. Still w/o Steven Stamkos, the Lightning have dropped five of six. Given TB's season-long struggles on the road (8-12-2), I don't like their chances here. If you've been following me for any length of time, you know the respect I have for the Kings' puck possession numbers.

What specific puck possesion numbers am I speaking of? Well, in addition, to their usual strong standing in both Fenwick and Corsi, the Kings are allowing an average of just 23.8 shots per game on home ice. That's a big reason why they've won 67% of their games at Staples Center this season. No team in the league gives up fewer shots per game. When you're limiting the number of opponents' shots, you're also obviously limiting the number of times they can score. In the case of the Kings, it's also a nice way to alleviate the loss of goaltender Jonathan Quick. Peter Budaj has proven himself to be an adequate fill-in between the pipes. Really, it's pretty remarkable that w/o Quick, the team is still 6th in goals allowed. On the offensive end, the team has produced 34+ shots in four of six January games. 

Meanwhile, goaltending has been an issue for Tampa Bay even with the presence of Ben Bishop. The team is a shocking 24th in goals allowed and has allowed six in three different games during its current slide. The offense also failed to show up Friday at home vs. Columbus, scoring just one time. The Lightning last won a road game all the way back on December 14th in Calgary. Going all the way back to November 21st, they've lost 10 of 11 away from home. In five of the losses, they've been held to 0 or 1 goal. Games against the Western Conference haven't gone well either; they're just 2-9 in them. 8* Los Angeles

8* Los Angeles (4:05 ET): The sense of urgency for the Kings has in no way lessened since I last played them (and won!). In Friday's analysis, I went through their current standing in the Western Conference pecking order (5th in the Pacific, 8th overall). Despite beating the Jets (again, as I said they would) two nights ago, four teams remain within two points of LA for that coveted last playoff spot. Tonight, it's a non-conference opponent that they'll host. Tampa Bay, like Los Angeles, has largely been a disappointment this year due to injuries. Still w/o Steven Stamkos, the Lightning have dropped five of six. Given TB's season-long struggles on the road (8-12-2), I don't like their chances here. If you've been following me for any length of time, you know the respect I have for the Kings' puck possession numbers.

What specific puck possession numbers am I speaking of? Well, in addition, to their usual strong standing in both Fenwick and Corsi, the Kings are allowing an average of just 23.8 shots per game on home ice. That's a big reason why they've won 67% of their games at Staples Center this season. No team in the league gives up fewer shots per game. When you're limiting the number of opponents' shots, you're also obviously limiting the number of times they can score. In the case of the Kings, it's also a nice way to alleviate the loss of goaltender Jonathan Quick. Peter Budaj has proven himself to be an adequate fill-in between the pipes. Really, it's pretty remarkable that w/o Quick, the team is still 6th in goals allowed. On the offensive end, the team has produced 34+ shots in four of six January games. 

Meanwhile, goaltending has been an issue for Tampa Bay even with the presence of Ben Bishop. The team is a shocking 24th in goals allowed and has allowed six in three different games during its current slide. The offense also failed to show up Friday at home vs. Columbus, scoring just one time. The Lightning last won a road game all the way back on December 14th in Calgary. Going all the way back to November 21st, they've lost 10 of 11 away from home. In five of the losses, they've been held to 0 or 1 goal. Games against the Western Conference haven't gone well either; they're just 2-9 in them. 8* Los Angeles

8* Xavier (2:00 ET): This is obviously a very big game in the Big East w/ the two of the top teams in the conference colliding. As far as "who's hotter" coming into this afternoon's clash, there is no debate. Creighton is 17-1 SU this year (only loss to Villanova) and went the "tune up" route on Saturday, hosting non-DI Truman State, whom they annihilated 101-69. Meanwhile, Xavier had to go to Butler and lost a close one, 83-78 as four-point dogs. That followed another road loss, 79-54 to Villanova. That's a tough stretch for any team, so the fact the Musketeers went 0-2 is of no real concern to me. They're 9-0 SU at home, winning by an average of 18.9 points per game so far. Lay the points.

Creighton is certainly no slouch. The Blue Jays will likely find themsleves in the top 7 when the new polls come out later today. If you're a regular of mine, then you're already aware of my lack of regard for the pollsters. I do not think Creighton is a top seven team in the country. They are top 20 for sure, but not top 10. When searching for a "best win" this year, Wisconsin early in the year and Butler last week both come to mind. But those came in Omaha. Because they're 12-4 ATS overall, I feel they're a little overvalued right now. Remember that they are still w/o senior center Zach Hanson. The team is shooting remarkably well so far (53.5 FG%), but Xavier's defense will present the toughest matchup since Villanova. 

The Musketeers could very well drop out of the Top 25 due to the B2B losses, but IMO they are still Top 25 worthy. Before the last week, they'd lost only two games and one of them was at Baylor, who (for now) is #1 in the country. The other loss came by two at Colorado. While the final score says they lost by 25 at 'Nova, note that was a close game at halftime. They led Butler at the half (by six) Saturday before another second half defensive meltdown. The fact that the Musketeers allow just 61.2 PPG at home tells me we won't have that same issue this afternoon. Point guard Edward Sumner is listed as probable to play, so don't worry about that. I look for Xavier to snap a four-game ATS (2-2 SU) losing skid to Creighton here. 8* Xavier