8* Toronto (10:05 ET): The Blue Jays were beaten last night, 4-2 here in Oakland, but I anticipate them bouncing back here w/ Marco Estrada on the bump. Opposing him will be Jesse Hahn, who is making his retun after a stint on the DL. It's not like the A's are any kind of formidable opponent. While it's true that this is a battle of last place teams, Toronto in the AL East and Oakland in the West, the A's have a worse record and far worse run differential (-60 to -8). Going into yday, the A's had dropped seven of nine and they haven't beaten the same opponent in consecutive days since a somewhat shocking sweep of the Red Sox back in mid-May. This is a good time to fade them.

Toronto dug itself a pretty big early hole this season, but they're already within two games of .500, so by no means are they "out of it." In fact, as good as the Yankees have been so far, the Jays trail them by only six games. On the other hand, you have Oakland, who is 16.5 games off the pace in the AL West. One player - Ryan Healy - accounted for all of the A's offensive production last night. That's something that simply cannot be counted upon again. The team was off B2B 10-run performances against Washington over the weekend, but note that for the year they rank 24th or lower in runs scored, team batting average and slugging. That should make life easy for Estrada, who is looking to rebound from a disastrous start in Yankee Stadium last week. Considering that in the two starts prior he allowed just 2 ER total (1 each time) and had a 20-2 KW ratio, the chances of a bounce back performance from Estrada are high.

As for Hahn, he's struggled mightily at home this year w/ a 6.94 ERA and 1.971 WHIP in three starts. Most pitchers, save for the great ones (which Hahn is not), tend to struggle in their first start post-DL. Coming off a triceps injury, expect the club to be cautious w/ him as there are also concerns over Hahn's velocity. It's not like Oakland's bullpen is very good either. I think a pretty clear cut case could be made that the A's are the worst team in the American League, so fading them at this price seems like a strong value. 8* Toronto

10* Over Mets/Rangers (8:05 ET): We now return to a discussion of betting Interleague totals. As I often stress in these situations, venue matters as depending whether or not the game is contested at an AL or NL park, you either have a DH or don't. In this case, the NL team (New York) benefits from the addition of the designated hitter to its lineup by virtue of playing in the NL park. The DH is an advantage bettors hardly even need when it comes to betting the Mets Over on the road. Already, they are the #1 Over team in all of baseball (34-13-8) - by a wide margin. On average, their road games are - by far - the highest scoring in the league at 12.2 rpg. So getting an additional hitter in the lineup is merely "the icing on the cake" here as this matchup should fly Over the total.

Now, in addition to scoring 6.1 runs per game on the road this year, Mets' pitching is allowing the exact same number per game. Even in their most recent series, which was at home, they twice allowed 11+ runs to the Pirates and that's not a strong offensive ballclub. Having Jacob deGrom on the mound tonight may help some, but then again he was charged w/ seven runs in four innings his last time out (against Milwaukee). Five of deGrom's six road starts have gone Over the total this year and overall he has an ERA that's now approaching 4.00. Also remember that the Mets' bullpen has been atrocious this year, particularly on the road where they've posted a 6.84 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. Texas, despite getting swept over the weekend by Houston, still comes in averaging a solid 5.1 rpg at home this year. 

The Rangers have given up at least five runs in six consecutive contests, allowing seven or more in four of those games. Tonight marks the first start of the year for Dillon Gee, who is a former Met. I expect the Mets' offense, which is typically prolific on the road, to fare well against their old teammate. The extra hitter in the lineup obviously helps and the wind blowing out tonight could potentially lead to a few well hit balls turning into home runs. deGrom has allowed multiple HR's four times this year and has given up six total in his last five starts. 10* Over Mets/Rangers

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): The Braves were embarrassed last night, losing to the Phillies 11-4 here at Sun Trust Park. The loss drops them to 0-4 head to head in this NL East rivalry. That seems odd considering you wouldn't necessarily perceive one club as being demonstrably better than the other and if you did, it certainly wouldn't be Philly. Despite a relatively modest three-game win streak, the Phils still have the worst record in all of baseball (20-35) and have been outscored by 59 runs over the course of the season. Taking teams looking to avenge a prior sweep remains one of my favorite angles in betting MLB, so w/ the pitching edge tonight, I'm again backing Atlanta. 

The Braves fell into a huge early hole last night as starter Bartolo Colon simply didn't "have it" and as a result he may not be long for this starting rotation. Before you knew it, the Braves were down 3-0 after the top of the first and it got as bad as 9-0 before Atlanta finally scored in the fourth. I expect a far better start tonight from southpaw Jaime Garcia, who has a remarkable 0.42 ERA over his L3 starts. Sadly, the team has lost two of those last three starts even though Garcia has allowed just 1 ER (four runs total) in 21 2/3 IP. Last time out was the definition of "hard luck" as Garcia was charged w/ just one unearned run in seven innings, yet the team still lost 2-1 to the Angels. While the team has yet to experience sustained success in its new stadium, Garcia has pitched well here in his two starts, posting a 1.88 ERA and 1.047 WHIP. It sure is odd that only two of his 10 starts this season have come at home. In the previous series vs. the Phillies, Garcia worked six strong innings and gave up just two runs on five hits. But, sadly, the offense let him down (again) in a 4-3 loss.

While Garcia would clearly seem to be "due" (for some success), the same cannot be said for Phillies starter Aaron Nola. The team is 0-3 in his L3 starts and that's largely b/c of his 5.62 ERA. His last time out saw him last only three innings as he gave up four runs in a 10-2 loss at Miami. Rarely has Nola gone deep into games this year as there's been just one instance of him making it past the sixth inning. In addition to Garcia being due, the same could be said for the Braves as a whole at home. Remember Philly is 8-21 in road games. Garcia leads the way here. 10* Atlanta

8* Under Nationals/Dodgers (10:05 ET): What a series we have here. For my money, these are the two best teams in the National League right now. We might as well go ahead and already crown the Nationals champions of the NL East as they've already opened up a 10.5 game lead over the rest of the field and I assure you that none of the other teams in that division are talented enough to make up that gap. As for the Dodgers, they find themselves in a far more fierce race out West w/ Colorado and Arizona. Those three are separated by just two games and while LA may not have the division lead, they do own the best run differential in the entire Senior Circuit (at +84). That's largely due to the fact they are #1 in all of baseball in runs allowed. Because of that, I'm on the Under in tonight's series opener.

While the Dodgers have given up the fewest number of runs in all of baseball, no team has scored more than the Nationals. So, obviously, something will have to give here. It should be noted that Washington's offense noticeably slowed down in May (4.3 rpg) as they were just 20th in runs per game during the month. The offense picked back up in a major way over the weekend in Oakland, but remember they had a DH in that series. Bryce Harper also returned from suspension Sunday. But the combination of no-DH and playing in Dodger Stadium should more than counteract Harper's return. Road teams are averaging just 3.1 rpg here at Dodger Stadium this year while batting a collective .217. Over the L7 days, Dodgers pitching has held opposing hitters below a .200 BA. 

Lucky for the Nats is that they have Gio Gonzalez going on the mound tonight. He is 3-1 w/ a 1.69 ERA in five career starts vs. Los Angeles. He also comes in off a quality start and has allowed 3 ER or fewer in 9 of his 11 starts overall. It should be pointed out that the Dodgers were shut out yday, the second time that's happened in the last four games, and they have scored two runs or fewer in four of the last five games. Hyun-Jin Ryu will get the baseball for the home team here and he's coming off B2B strong showings, having allowed just three runs in 11 1/3 IP. He's now allowed 2 ER or fewer in four of his past five outings. Washington's offensive numbers are way down when facing lefty starters this year, to 3.4 rpg. The Under is 5-1 in those games. 8* Under Nationals/Dodgers

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): At first blush, this battle of NL East also-rans may appear to be as unappealing as any matchup on Monday's MLB card. But there are several reasons to like the Braves here, the fact they have revenge for a prior sweep (suffered back in April) chief among them. As any regular of mine knows, taking a team looking to avenge a prior sweep is one of my favorite angles in betting MLB and it's been quite successful through the years, 2017 in particular. Atlanta has won each of the last two days, including a 13-run effort Sunday. Philadelphia is also off B2B wins here (over SF), but they're still not too far removed from an atrocious 6-22 May. Their weekend series also took place at home. On the road, they're a woeful 7-21, the worst such record in all of baseball.

It was at home that the Phillies swept a three-game set from the Braves in late April, two of the wins coming by a one-run margin. Shortly after that, they would nosedive and not only do they have the worst road record in baseball, they also have the worst overall record. Now Atlanta has struggled a bit in its first year playing a new home stadium (10-12), especially on the runs allowed side of the ledger (6.0 rpg). But they should certainly be happy to be back here after going 4-5 on the just completed road trip. Something else to consider is that no team has played fewer home games this year. Thus, there's still a likelihood that they'll be turning things around here at SunTrust Park, which is where they'll play 18 of their next 21 games. Before taking two of three from the Giants over the weekend, the Phils had lost 10 consecutive series. A pitching staff which has allowed 7.0 rpg over the last week could be in trouble in this hitter-friendly park. 

The two starting pitchers Monday are at very different stages of their respective careers. Philly has recalled Nick Pivetta from Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Pivetta has made four starts at the big league level this year and the team has lost them all (5.12 ERA, 1.81 WHIP). He has yet to go more than five innings. Meanwhile, Atlanta counters w/ veteran Bartolo Colon, who is hardly having himself a great 2017. But despite taking a loss back in April, Colon still sports a 3.52 ERA in 20 career starts vs. the Phillies. His last start is very misleading in the sense that seven of the nine runs allowed were unearned as his defense betrayed him that day. I'll call for the Braves to start to adjust to their new digs and revenge will be sweet Monday night. 10* Atlanta

10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Shortly after a humbling 113-91 loss in Game 1, both LeBron James and Cavs HC Ty Lue were quick to remark that they "know" their team is capable of playing better. Certainly, it would be difficult to imagine the Cavaliers playing any worse. Thursday saw them shoot just 34.9% from the floor and turn the ball over 20 times (compared to just 4 TO's for GSW). Additionally, they were dominated early on the offensive glass. It goes w/o saying that you can't beat the Warriors when you allow them to attempt 20 more shots than you. Golden State wound up attempting 106 field goal attempts in Game 1, which is just insane. Another key here is that the public was largely on the underdog Cavs in Game 1. With the lopsided result, it appears as they (the public) have "abandoned ship" so-to-speak and now we're able to get a better number. Take the points in Game 2.

James and Kyrie Irving certainly did their part for the Cavs in Game 1. The duo scored or assisted on 73 points on 58 shots w/ LeBron attempting a playoff-high number of field goals in the paint. Unfortunately, the rest of the team was just dreadful and that's putting it mildly. The Cavs players w/o the names "James" or "Irving" on the back of their uniforms combined for just 18 points on 3 of 28 shooting, including 1 of 10 from three-point range when neither of the two assisted. Considering the offensive efficiency we saw from the Cavs as a whole in the first three rounds (#1 overall, even ahead of GSW), it goes w/o saying that we should see marked improvement for Game 2. Tristan Thompson had 0 points and 4 rebounds. Whatever happened to Kyle Korver?

On the defensive end, we also need some improvement from the Cavaliers. There were far too many easy layups from the Warriors in Game 1. Kevin Durant, in particular, had a field day en route to a game-high 38 points. What's crazy is that Klay Thompson was just 1 of 12 from the field and Draymond Green had only nine points. The Warriors actually only shot 42.5% as a team, but the key was the volume of attempts. They still had two quarters of 33+ points. For a frame of reference, in no other playoff game has GSW taken more than 91 FG attempts. Yes, the Dubs remain unbeaten in the playoffs and there's a certain "air" of invincibility surrounding this team right now. But, to me, that marks a good "go against" opportunity as you have to remember Cleveland held a double digit lead in each of its previous 10 games. 10* Cleveland

10* Houston (3:05 ET): At this juncture, I can't see why you'd want to play against this Astros team. They won again yday (I had 'em) and are now 40-16, which is a better record than LY's Cubs had through 56 games. That was their ninth straight win and today they go for the sweep of the division rival Rangers, who are just 3-9 their L12 games following a relatively meaningless 10-game win streak. While the home team (Texas) gets a bit of a reprieve here knowing they no longer have to deal w/ the 1-2 combo of Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers, Jr (who won the 1st two games), Brad Peacock still gives Houston a pitching edge today over Martin Perez, who looks like the worst starter on the entire Sunday slate. I'm calling for the red-hot Astros to finish the sweep. 

Some of what I have to say here will be rehashed from yday's analysis. Something I was clear about at the start of the season is that after winning the AL West in 2016, the Rangers were likely to regress. That's only natural after winning 95 games despite a run differential of only +8. (They were 36-13 in one-run games LY, a MLB record). Sure enough, we currently find the Rangers below .500 and they are only 4-9 in one-run games. It was a 6-5 loss last night as the strikeouts continue to pile up. Two days after matching a MLB record w/ 20 K's against Boston, they struck out 18 more times yday. It has to be frustrating to score five times against a pitcher like McCullers and still lose. Texas fell into an early hole (5-1 after third inning) and that was too much to overcome. 

I expect the home team to fall into another hole today. Perez has some ugly numbers and last time out allowed five runs in five innings, resulting in a 10-8 loss to the Rays. The team's record w/ him on the bump is not good (3-8). So far, the Rangers are just 1-5 head to head vs. the Astros in 2017. Perez is going to have to face a lineup which is not only averaging 6.7 runs per game on the road, but also 9.4 rpg their last seven games overall. That should be more than enough for Peacock, who in two starts has a 0.889 WHIP and 16 strikeouts. He'd previously been dominant as a reliever. This Astros team is 20-6 on the road, including a perfect 7-0 when between -125 and -175 on the money line. 10* Houston

8* Boston (1:35 ET): The Red Sox broke through w/ a win here in Baltimore yday, their 1st of the series. They got the "old" David Price on the mound, who didn't even allow a runner past first base until giving up a HR in the bottom of the seventh inning. As if facing Price wasn't brutal enough for the Orioles, now they must face Chris Sale, which seems just unfair. Sale has emerged as perhaps the top pitcher in the American League this season, his first in a Red Sox uniform. He's won his last five decisions and leads all of baseball (by a wide margin) w/ 110 K's. Additionally, he ranks in the top 10 in both ERA (8th) and WHIP (4th). Starting opposite Sale here will be Chris Tillman, who is simply no match. I expect Boston to emerge from this series w/ a split. 

The fact these two AL East rivals are seperated by just one-half game in the standings is misleading. Baltimore, 29-25 for the year, has been outscored by its opponents. They are also not far removed from a seven-game losing streak and are just 4-9 L13 games overall. Tillman was among the league leaders in net units at the betting window in 2016, but few anticipated he'd repeat that and sure enough his team start record so far is 2-3 this year and the numbers are even worse. After allowing five runs and seven hits in 2 2/3 IP (against the Yankees) his last time out, his ERA and WHIP are now 5.87 and 1.870 respectively. He missed the first five weeks of the season w/ a shoulder issue, so perhaps that's the reason for the decline. Whatever the reason, I expect him to struggle here against a Boston lineup starting to find its way (5.1 rpg on the road). Tillman has yet to go longer than six innings in any of his five starts.

The scary thing for the O's here is that Sale wasn't even that dominant his last time out. He allowed six runs (five earned) and 10 hits in five innings to his former team (White Sox), in what was easily his worst outing of 2017. I fully expect to Sale bounce back here given the YTD resume. Last month, he dominated Baltimore, going eight innings and allowing just two runs and three hits. He also had 11 strikeouts. Looking at the strikeout number of the two starters today is striking. We already know Sale is the MLB leader in that department, at one point he had eight straight starts w/ 10+ K's, but Tillman's strikeout numbers remain poor. He hasn't had more than 4 in any outing this year. Big pitching mismatch today. 8* Boston

8* Over Aldo/Holloway (12:15 AM ET): This a unification title fight at Featherweight (145 lbs), scheduled for five rounds. Like the oddsmakers, I expect this one to go to the scorecards and for the judges to have to decide a winner. Therefore, I'm on the Over 4.5 rounds. This will be only the second fight for Jose Aldo since taking that humiliating loss to Connor McGregor back in December of 2015. He rebounded w/ a decision victory over Frankie Edgar at UFC 200 last July. The loss to McGregor was just Aldo's second in 28 career fights, so I agree w/ him being the favorite here. However, six of his last eight victories have come about via decision. As for Holloway, who is on a 10-fight win streak, he probably hasn't faced an opponent this good in his career. His ability to outstrike opponents will be severely tested here.

This fight takes place in Brazil, so Aldo will have a decided edge in crowd support. As alluded to earlier, his defense and counterpunching should be huge here as well. Furthermore, this projects to be a fight w/ little in the way of takedowns. Barring either fighter getting a "lucky punch" (like McGregor did w/ Aldo), I see a long feeling out process w/ neither man able to hit the other w/ much regularity. Aldo is going to look to control the pace here, which I think he will be able to do, and that means fewer overall strikes. Granted, I anticipate Aldo being effective, but that doesn't mean I think he'll be able to finish Holloway either. 

Holloway's strike defense is not all that bad either; in fact, opponents have connected only 67% of the time against him w/ significant strikes. That's just behind Aldo among all featherweights. With a long reach (identical to that of Aldo), he may be able to keep Aldo "at bay" in this one. So again, look for a somewhat methodical fight here that will see the favorite taking little in the way of chances. This has decision written all over it. 8* Over Aldo/Holloway

10* Nashville (8:05 ET): What was expected to be a tightly contested Stanley Cup Finals has the Penguins up 2-0, yet ironically they have been outplayed - some would say badly - in both games. The Predators hold a sizable 64-39 edge in shots so far, which would indicate a certain level of dominance. However, in another bit of irony, what was perceived to be their one big "ace in the hole" in this series - goaltender Pekka Rinne - has let them down, big time. Rinne was actually chased from Game 2 after giving up three third period goals. In both games of the series, Rinne has allowed three goals in a period and that is why the Preds find themselves in this 0-2 hole. Remember, he came into the Cup Finals sporting a .941 save percentage for the playoffs. Now with things shifting to "Smashville," I look for Rinne to rediscover past form and for the Preds to finally notch a win. 

Outshooting the Penguins 26-12 in Game 1 should have led to a victory for Nashville. They held Pittsburgh w/o a shot for a 37-minute stretch. But digging themselves into a 3-0 hole after one period proved costly. Note they did rally back to tie that game before giving up the game winner w/ just over three minutes remaining in regulation. (Pittsburgh would add an empty-netter for a 5-3 final). In Game 2, Nashville again looked like the better team, but was still locked in a 1-1 tie entering the third period. Then the dam broke w/ the Pens scoring three times in the first 3:28. That was when Rinne got pulled. As rough as the series has been so far, Rinne does have a .925 save percentage at home for the season and the team is 28-14 SU on home ice w/ him in goal. In rolling through the first three rounds of these playoffs, the Predators dropped only one home game (out of a possible eight) and the loss came in OT. 

The edge in shots on goal for the Preds is key. If there's one concern I've had w/ Pittsburgh all year, it's the number of shots allowed. In the regular season, they gave up the fourth most at 32.6 per game. They've been right at that average here in the playoffs. After Marc-Andre Fleury began to slip in the Eastern Conference Finals, Matt Murray has come on to bail the team out. But how long can he continue to do so when the team is being so drastically outshot? This is the 1st time in the playoffs that Nashville is off B2B losses. They are 13-7 SU this year after being held to one goal or less the previous game. Pittsburgh has not only been outshot drastically in both games of this series, they were outshot in EVERY game of the Washington series and have actually been outshot in all but six (out of possible 21) games this postseason! 10* Nashville

8* Houston (7:15): What was expected to be a pitcher's duel (Keuchel vs. Darvish) that would set the tone for this series instead turned into a one-sided affair last night w/ the Astros winning yet again. The AL West leaders have now won eight straight and have the same record through 55 games (39-16) that the Cubs did last year. Safe to say, this is the best team in all of MLB right now. To be fair, last night's game was a pitcher's duel two-thirds of the way w/ the teams' scoreless after four innings. It should be pointed out that there was a long rain delay as well w/ the game starting two hours later than expected. But, it was in the fifth where Houston finally broke through against Darvish, scoring three times and then they added four more off the bullpen, eventually winning 7-1. Having lost Darvish's start means real trouble here for the Rangers as a day after dealing w/ Keuchel, they must now face Lance McCullers, Jr while sending out Andrew Cashner themselves. Big pitching mismatch here.

Texas had that 10-game win streak, but has gone just 3-7 since losing three consecutive series. Something I was clear about at the start of the season is that after winning the AL West in 2016, this team was set to regress. It's only natural after winning 95 games despite a run differential of only +8. (They were 36-13 in one-run games LY, a MLB record). Sure enough, we currently find the Rangers below .500. Theoretically, Darvish gave them a good shot yday at being the 1st team to beat Keuchel this year. But you can't say the same about Cashner going against McCullers. While he's won 2 of his last three decisions, previously Cashner had gone 10 straight starts w/o a victory (dating back to last year). Facing an Astros lineup that's averaging 8.6 rpg during the current win streak is a daunting task. Even in those four scoreless innings against Darvish last night, the Astros were able to get a runner on base every inning. 

Along w/ Keuchel, McCullers forms possibly the strongest 1-2 punch in any rotation in all of MLB. Perhaps no pitcher had a better May than McCullers, who was 4-0 w/ a 0.99 ERA. Opponents hit just .164 off him in five starts last month. After allowing just a single (unearned) run his first four May starts, McCullers actually looked a little human his last time out by giving up three runs (two earned) in 6 IP vs. Baltimore. Houston still won of course, 8-4. Earlier in the year, McCullers dominated the Rangers w/ 10 strikeouts in 6 1/3 IP. That was opposite Cashner, by the way. Even if McCullers is not at his best again tonight, does it matter w/ an Astros lineup averaging an insane 6.7 rpg on the road this year? The team is a perfect 6-0 as a ML road favorite of -125 to -175. 8* Houston

10* Detroit (4:10 ET): Coming into 2017, the White Sox were thought to be embarking on a total rebuild, signaled by them dealing ace Chris Sale to Boston. However, they got off to a surprisingly decent start, led by a pitching staff that was near the top of the AL in runs allowed. Skeptics such as myself didn't know how long that would last, however, and sure enough we've seen the Pale Hose twice allow 13+ runs in the last three games. One of those times was last night in a crushing 15-5 loss to the Tigers. Moving forward, I expect the downward slide to continue for Chicago as they've now three straight and 7 of their last 11. Detroit has won 3 of 4 and today's pitching matchup is an instance of one of those "immediate revenge" situations I like to speak of. 

What I mean by "immediate revenge" is you have two pitchers facing off for the second time in as many starts. Historically, you'll find it very rare that the same pitcher wins both matchups. Last Sunday saw Miguel Gonzalez and the White Sox defeat Jordan Zimmerman and the Tigers, 7-3. That loss could almost entirely be pinned on Zimmerman, who allowed all seven runs (gave up 3 HR's) and lasted only five innings. My thought is he'll pitch a lot better this time around. Last week's game was at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago. Zimmerman already has a 4-1 TSR here at home as opposed to 0-5 on the road. As for Gonzalez, Sunday marked just the second quality start in his L6 outings. So, I'd expect him to pitch significantly WORSE today.

Then, there's this Tigers' offense. Yesterday saw them jump all over Chicago starter Derek Holland, scoring 10 runs by the end of the third inning. They finished w/ a season-high 11 extra base hits. Gonzalez is really no better than Holland and is 0-4 w/ a 6.56 ERA his L4 road starts. He also has a career ERA of 7.02 vs. Detroit in 12 appearances, 10 of those starts. So last time out was certainly a bit of an abberration for him against this opponent. Something else to consider for this rematch is that the Tigers are averaging a healthy 5.6 runs per game at home this year. The White Sox are 0-2 thus far in 2017 after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. That includes Wednesday's loss to the Red Sox. I'm confident Zimmerman bounces back and the Tigers proved yday that they are the superior team. 10* Detroit

10* Over Nationals/A's (10:05 ET): We again turn to the discussion of National League teams getting to play in American League parks. The obvious benefit here is the addition of the designated hitter to the lineup while the pitcher no longer has to come up to bat. In the case of the Nationals, this could be a very bad thing for the host Athletics. Washington is already near the top of MLB in all key offensive categories, including 2nd in runs scored and team batting average, third in OBP and 1st in slugging. Numbers at the plate were a little down in May, but that in no way affected the team's success. This will be just the 2nd time for the Nats getting to play in AL park this season. The Over was 2 for 2 in a quick visit to Baltimore last month. This trip comes at a good time as the DH spot should counteract the suspension of Bryce Harper. Take the Over. 

Now Stephen Strasburg facing the A's lineup looks like a complete mismatch in favor of the former. Oakland swings and misses A LOT (19 times Wednesday!) and Strasburg, who has always been sharp in IL play, comes off an outing w/ 15 K's. But his L2 starts have also come against Atlanta and San Diego, two very light hitting teams. He'll have to deal w/ a DH too rather than the pitcher coming up to bat. Also, let's keep an eye on how deep into the game Strasburg goes. If he's lifted early, that could be a problem for the Nats as their bullpen remains a question mark. On the road, things have been quite ugly w/ the 'pen posting a 6.01 ERA and 1.640 WHIP. The A's will be looking to atone for yday's shutout loss in Cleveland and thankfully, they average about a full run per game more at home than they do on the road. Given Washington is the prohibitive favorite, there's a solid chance Oakland has to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth. Those final three outs can sometimes be the difference between a game going Over or staying Under.

Meanwhile, the Nats average 5.5 rpg on the road, roughly an identical number as to what they average at home. Because Strasburg is on the hill, this O/U line is low. I look for the offense to take advantage of Andrew Triggs, who allowed six runs his last time out (admittedly, five were unearned). But Triggs also allowed six runs in his start previous to that one and all but one were earned. Earned or unearned, Triggs is still giving up plenty of runs and this will be the best offense he will have faced to date. In four of his last seven outings, he's allowed at least five runs. The wind is expected to be blowing OUT tonight, which theoretically should aid our cause as well. Potentially, there may be a few more home run balls as a result. The Over is 19-9-2 in Nats' night games this year. 10* Over Nationals/A's

10* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Over the last two days, the Cardinals did something - twice - that the Cubs failed to do even once over a three-day span last week. That would be beat the Dodgers. In fact, the defending World Series Champs come into this series on an almost unthinkable six-game losing skid, having not just been swept by the Dodgers, but by the lowly Padres as well. That latter result simply "can't happen." This is now the club's longest losing skid under Joe Maddon and the 0-6 road trip was their first since 2012. But the Cubbies are back in the "Friendly Confines" today as the begin what is somewhat of a crucial series w/ their main rival. Despite the road trip giving us little reason to support them, I suspect this will be a nice bounce back weekend for the home team.

Perhaps the Cubs forgot to "pack their offense" for the West Coast trip. In the six games, they scored just nine runs (shut out twice by the Dodgers) and on Wednesday, they managed only three hits against the Padres. Clearly then, this represents what I call a "buy low" situation on what still projects to be the NL Central winner. There's only one way for the Cubs to go here and it's up. It should be pointed out that they are averaging a healthy 5.1 rpg at Wrigley this season. After splitting six games w/ the Cardinals at Busch Stadium earlier in the year, this is their first time getting to host St. Louis. Having had yday off while the Cards were wrapping things up w/ LA seems to be an edge for the Cubs to me. They are 7-3 after an off-day this season.

John Lackey will toe the rubber today, facing his former team. He's a perfect 5 for 5 when it comes to quality starts against St. Louis. His 1st start of this season was against the Redbirds and it resulted in a Cubs victory, 6-4, at the expense of the pitcher he'll again be facing today. That would be Lance Lynn, who admittedly is having a strong comeback season after Tommy John surgery put him on the shelf for all of 2016. But last time out saw Lynn struggle as he allowed four runs (tied a season-high) at Colorado. Granted, Lackey is off B2B similar showings, but Lynn has a career 4.76 ERA here in Wrigley and has lost three of his last five starts here. I look for the Cubs to break out of their slump this afternoon. They're still a very good ballclub even though they haven't shown that recently. 10* Chi Cubs

8* Cleveland (9:05 ET): Much is being made of the fact that favorites have gone 11-1 ATS the last 12 years in the NBA Finals. This includes the Warriors winning and covering each of the last two years at the Cavs' expense. For the third year in a row (an NBA first!), these teams meet again to determine to who is the best the league has to offer. Though Golden State has Kevin Durant for the rubber match and has yet to lose this postseason (12-0 SU), I'm a bit surprised how little respect the defending league champs are getting, not just for Game 1, but the series as a whole. Clearly, regular season numbers (particularly at the defensive end) were not up to LY's standard. But that had a lot to do w/ an 0-9 SU record when LeBron James was out of the lineup. Contrary to conventional wisdom, James and company have "flipped a switch" here in the playoffs, turning in the third best defensive efficiency rating (GSW is 1st) while being #1 (by a wide margin) in offensive efficiency. Cleveland has lost only one time in the playoffs and that came in a game they led by as many as 21 points. Take the points in Game 1.

People like to criticize the East, but Golden State had about as easy a path through the West as one could imagine. First round opponent Portland was hardly an equal. The same could be said for second round opponent Utah. In the Conference Finals, San Antonio led them by 25 pts in Game (here in Oakland!) before Kwahi Leonard got hurt, which changed the entire complexion of that series. There has been one game in each round where the Dubs have had to overcome a deficit of at least nine points. So while there have been some impressive performances along the way, it hasn't been flawless. Note the Cavs have enjoyed a double digit lead in 10 consecutive games going back to the close out game of the 1st round. That's pretty impressive considering they are the underdog here.

A key weapon here for the Cavs (besides the obvious answer of LeBron) is the three-point shot. Golden State is thought of as "three-point shooting team," but in the playoffs Cleveland has been better. In fact, the Cavs are connecting at a historical pace. They are averaging a stunning 14.6 three pointers made per game, which if it holds, would be a playoff record. They're shooting at a 43.5% clip and that's including a 4 of 12 mark from Richard Jefferson & James Jones, who don't figure to shoot much in these finals. Something not even being considered here is the fact that Golden State HC Steve Kerr is likely to miss Game 1. That HAS to matter some, right? 8* Cleveland

10* Under Cavs/Warriors (9:05 ET): This will be the highest O/U line for any NBA Finals game in the 2000's. Both offenses rolled through conference counterparts to get here, but let's not discount how those opponents were completely outclassed. Furthermore, always underrated is the fact that the Warriors were #2 in the regular season and currently #1 in the playoffs in defensive efficiency. The gap between them and Cleveland (#3 in playoff def efficiency) is quite substantial. That said, the Cavs have clearly "turned it on" at the defensive end themselves in the postseason. They just got done holding Boston to an average of 100.4 PPG on 43.5% shooting in the ECF. The long layoff between series could likely have an effect on both teams and consider that only ONE of the previous 19 matchups between these teams (all over L3 years) has seen more total pts scored than what the oddsmakers are asking for in Game 1. Take the Under. 

That lone matchup that exceeded this O/U line took place on MLK Day 2016 as the Warriors ran the Cavs out of the gym, 132-98. I wouldn't be expecting any kind of one-sided rout like that here. Cleveland did struggle to shoot against the Warriors in both reg season matchups this year, however, making only 38.9% and 35.2% of their FG attempts respectively. They were also only 21 of 69 from three-point range. Seven of the previous eight meetings here in Oakland have stayed Under the total. In their last five visits to Oracle Arena, the Cavs have shot better than 41% only one time and that was Game 5 of LY's Finals - when the Warriors did not have Draymond Green.

Neither team's total PPG for the season exceeds this O/U line. Not even Golden State, whose games average 220.2 points per game. That average has held remarkably steady here in the playoffs (220.3 PPG). This was actually one of the top Under teams in the league this year (because of all the high O/U lines) and a major reason for that was a 21-9 Under mark against the Eastern Conference. As for Cleveland, their games this season have seen an average of 217.8 PPG. There's been a slight increase here in the playoffs, but only to 220.0 per game. The O/U line was 227 for the Cavs' reg season visit here and that game (126-91 GSW win) stayed Under by double digits. Other than that, no other O/U line for any previous matchup between these two has been higher than 219.5, which was the number for the reg season meeting in Cleveland. All seven O/U lines in LY's Finals were in the 204 to 211.5 pt range. This will close as the highest O/U line for either team in these playoffs. 10* Under Cavs/Warriors

10* Arizona (7:10 ET): Given the pitching matchup here, this line looks to be absolute steal & reminiscent of the plays involved in yday's 3-0 sweep. The D'backs, 33-22 on the season w/ a +54 run differential, will be sending Zack Greinke to the mound. Miami, just 21-30 (-22 run diff) and off a rare sweep (of the lowly Phillies), counters w/ Jeff Locke. Greinke's resume need not be rehashed here (but I will below!), but Locke (a 2013 All-Star) is making his first start of the season. Arm issues are what have delayed Locke's first start not just of 2017, but in a Miami uniform as well. This is a prime chance to face the Marlins as they're off the rare sweep, which came at the expense of the few teams below them in the standings.

Arizona currently finds itself involved in a tight three-horse race in the NL West (w/ LA and Colorado) as the trio are all seperated by just one-half game. Only the Dodgers and Nationals have outscored opponents by a wider margin over the course of the season, among Senior Circuit clubs. The fact they can claim such marks while being "only" 7-4 in Greinke starts makes things look all the more impressive. Currently eighth in all of baseball in WHIP (0.995), Greinke is off a strong month of May and has won five of his last six decisions overall. The lone loss came his last time out where he uncharctertistically gave up five runs. But I look for him to bounce back and not just because lefties are batting .227 against hime while righties are at .210. He's also fifth in the NL in K's per nine innings (10.5) and has traditionally "owned" the Marlins w/ a 4-0 record and 2.89 ERA in eight career starts against them.

Arizona also brings an impressive offense to South Beach. They are top five in both runs scored and slugging in all of baseball. So this is hardly an ideal lineup for Locke to face in his season debut. Locke, four years removed from his best season, has a sub-.500 career record to go w/ a 4.41 ERA. In five previous appearances vs. the D'backs, his ERA is 6.57. Getting back to the idea of this being an ideal situation to play AGAINST Miami, note that the sweep against Philadelphia was their first over any team since last August. The four-game win streak is a season-high and they'd previously failed to win B2B series at any point this season. That should counteract any lingering effect Arizona may have from having to go extra innings last night to beat Pittsburgh. 10* Arizona

8* NY Mets (1:10 ET): Thanks to a 7-1 loss yday, the Mets no longer have a chance to sweep the Brew Crew here in Queens. But I do envision them bouncing back for this afternoon's series finale to make it three out of four over the current (and surprising) NL Central leaders. I remain highly skeptical of this Milwaukee club being that they aren't anything special on the runs allowed side of the ledger. Now, the Mets are even worse in that department (in fact, they're tied for 28th in all of baseball), but today's pitching matchup is seems heavily tilted towards the home side and I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted their number properly for that.

Last time out, Milwaukee's Chase Anderson threw a gem, delivering 11 K's while allowing just one hit over seven scoreless innings. I don't see a repeat of that performance forthcoming, however. Why? Well, for starters, those 11 strikeouts posted in his last start matched the number of K's Anderson had in his previous three starts - combined. Two starts ago, he allowed three home runs and six runs total in a terrible showing against the Cubs. Notable is that start came on the road, while the last one was at home. In three career starts vs. the Mets, Anderson is winless w/ a 4.80 ERA. Prior to yday's win, the Brewers had dropped seven of nine. While their last series saw them earn a split after dropping the first two games (vs. Arizona), I don't see them being able to repeat the feat now that they're the road team. In five road starts this year, Anderson has a 5.54 ERA and 1.615 WHIP. Moving forward, I'm highly suspicious of the team being able to maintain its current average of allowing just 3.8 runs per game away from Miller Park. 

Opposing Anderson here will be Zach Wheeler. He too is coming off a strong outing, a pitcher's duel w/ Gerrit Cole, where he allowed just three runs in six innings of work. That left him in line for the win, but sadly the Mets' bullpen blew the game. Still, Wheeler has proven to be the team's best pitcher outside of Jacob deGrom this year. While deGrom failed to get the job done yday (allowed SEVEN runs!), I think Wheeler can. I say that knowing full well he's allowed 3 ER or less in five straight starts. Wheeler has pitched twice against the Brew Crew in his career and has a 1.54 ERA. He did not pitch in the series last month in Milwaukee that the Brewers swept. (Neither did Anderson). Look for the home team to bounce back today. 8* NY Mets

8* Washington (10:15 ET): Sparks have already flown in this series, which has seen the first place Nationals take the first two games from the disappointing Giants. It was Monday's game, a 3-0 Nats shutout, that provided the headlines. In that game, Bryce Harper and Hunter Strickland (a SF reliver) got into a brawl leading to suspensions being handed down. Obviously, that would be a net loss for the Nats if Harper were out, but he's not (currently appealing) and one has to wonder if his presence even matters tonight given the lopsided pitching matchup we have on tap. Harper was 0 for 5 at the plate last night and the Nats still won 6-3 thanks to 14 hits. With ace Max Scherzer on the bump tonight, they should finish off the sweep pretty handily. 

Schezer comes in w/ only a 6-4 team start record, but his WHIP is 0.936 and his ERA is 2.77. Those numbers even slightly improve out on the road (0.865, 2.60). Last time out, as you might expect, Scherzer dominated the lowly Padres. He struck out a season-high 13 batters while allowing just one run and three hits over 8 2/3 innings. Now you might say "that's San Diego." Well, the Giants have actually scored FEWER runs than San Diego this year and are 29th overall in MLB in crossing the plate. Additionally, they are 29th in team batting average and OBP. They're last in slugging. Scherzer has allowed 3 ER or less in all but one start this year & has double digit strikeouts in three of his last five trips to the mound. This is an ideal matchup for him. 

Meanwhile, I expect little out of Giants' starter Matt Cain tonight. He did pitch well last week vs. Atlanta, but did give up seven hits in 7 IP, so he was somewhat fortunate to get away w/ only allowing two runs. Of course, that was after he allowed seven runs and nine hits in 5 1/3 IP vs. St. Louis on 5.21. Unlike Scherzer, strikeout numbers remain low for Cain and he actually has a negative KW ratio over his L5 starts (14-15), which is never good. While the Nats continue to own the best record in the National League (still percentage points above the red-hot Dodgers), we need to come to grips w/ the fact the Giants are simply not a good team in 2017. Their -68 run differential is "topped" only by the aforementioned Padres (-87). The offense just isn't there right now and the team has dropped 7 of its last 10. 8* Washington

8* Under Predators/Penguins (8:05 ET): What a bizzare Game 1. The Penguins were able to score five times on just 12 shots, an almost unheard of shooting percentage, especially w/ it coming at the expense of the hottest goaltender in the sport, Pekka Rinne. (To be fair, the final goal came on an empty net). The Pens led 3-0 after the 1st period, benefiting from a 5 on 3 advantage at one point and also scoring w/ just 17 seconds before the first intermission. But after that, they were held w/o a shot for an incredible 37 minute stretch. Clearly, even in defeat, most will feel Nashville was the better team in Game 1. It's a difficult point to argue, but I'm back on the Under for Game 2 as a total three PP goals were scored Monday, something I don't see being duplicated. Nor will Pittsburgh's shooting percentage, obviously. 

We know Pittsburgh is a formidable offensive team (#1 in the league in scoring during the reg season), but even by their standard, Game 1 was quite the improbably performance. Their three 1st period goals all came within a four-minute stretch, which in retrospect decided the game. The fact they did that to Rinne, who came into the Stanley Cup Finals sporting an almost historic .941 save percentage for the entire postseason, made things all the more surreal. Needless to say, the defending champs should thank their "lucky stars" that they even won Game 1. It was the fewest number of shots by a winning team in any Stanley Cup Finals game ever. 

Rinne should bounce back, but let's not also forget that Pittsburgh has a pretty good goalie too in Matt Murray. He made 23 saves in Game 1, but was beaten an uncharacterstic three times. His save percentage in these playoffs remains .936 (he took over for Marc-Andre Fleury in Gm 3 of the ECF). Game 1 marked the Penguins' highest scoring game (total goals) since Round 1 while it was just the fourth playoff game for Nashville w/ more than five total goals scored. Remember that in their close out game vs. Anaheim, the Predators were able to score six times on 18 shots, also an unsustainable percentage. So both offenses are due to regress and the goalies should play a lot better than they did in Game 1. 8* Under Predators/Penguins

8* Boston (8:10 ET): While today's pitching matchup might not be nearly as slanted in the Red Sox direction as yday's was, it still calls for a play. With Chris Sale on the mound Tuesday night, Boston rolled to a 13-7 win here at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago. Ironically, it was more the Boston bats than Sale that led the way. In fact, it was probably Sale's worst effort in a Red Sox uniform. But, his offense picked him by scoring 13 runs on 16 hits, six of those being home runs! That's notable here b/c tonight's pitching matchup is less about who Boston has on the mound and more about playing AGAINST White Sox starter Mike Pelfrey, who remains one of the weakest pitchers in any rotation in all of baseball. Given how the Red Sox are swinging the bats right now, this should be an easy one. 

Last season saw Boston "lap" the rest of the league offensively, scoring - by far - the most runs in all of baseball. It was a slow start at the plate here in 2017, but I'm predicting that to change sooner rather than later. Why's that? Well, first off, despite being a somewhat pedesstrian 12th in runs scored so far, the team is not only third in batting average, but also 1st in on base percentage! Given those two rankings, one would reasonably conclude they're "due" to start scoring some more runs. We've already begun to see that w/ four games of 9+ runs in the L9 games. (They've averaged over 7.0 rpg during that stretch). Pelfrey should make things easy on them here as he comes in w/ a 4.41 ERA.

The Red Sox will go w/ Drew Pomeranz, whose numbers may not excite you, but he's looked good lately. That includes his last time out when he held Texas to just two runs and four hits over six innings. He also struck out a season-high 11 batters. I, like a lot of people, have been downright stunned at the White Sox surprising start as this was expected to be a rebuilding year. Instead, they continue to hover around .500 (currently three games under) and have a run differential of +22. Key for them was ranking at or near the top of the American League in fewest number of runs allowed, but as we saw yday, that ranking is starting to slip and it's only a matter of time before the entire time follows suit. 8* Boston

8* Tampa Bay (8:05 ET): The Rays appeared well on their way to a second straight victory in Arlington last night (would be have third straight win overall). Then the 7th and 8th innings happened. Over those two frames, the Rangers scored seven runs, thereby turning a 5-2 deficit into a 9-5 win. But tonight, we have a rather substantial pitching mismatch in favor of the visitors w/ Chris Archer opposing Austin Bibens-Dirkx. We know what the former is all about, but for the latter, this is his first big league start. Tampa Bay was better than its record last season (worst record in MLB in one-run games) and the same could be said for this season as they have a +24 run differential. Texas overachieved massively last season (36-13 in one-run games!) and I remain steadfast they are set to regress here in 2017.

Archer, like his team, did not have a very good 2016. He actually was dead last in all of baseball in net units at the betting window. But I was quick to jump on the bandwagon this year, calling for a bounce back. While he's only 4-3 in 11 starts so far (6-5 TSR), he's posted impressive numbers in five of his last six trips to the mound, the exception coming against an opponent (Cleveland) that always gives him trouble. Archer struck out 11 batters his last time out en route to a 5-2 win where he lasted 7 2/3 innings and gave up only five hits. Over his last five starts, he now has 51 strikeouts and that's bad news for a Texas lineup that certainly "isn't afraid" to swing and miss. Remember there was a game last week (against Boston) where they struck out 20 times! They struck out another 10 times yday, giving them 65 in just the last six games alone. Unlike yday when starter Matt Andriese had to leave in the 2nd inning due to a groin injury, the Rays can be expect a long outing from their starter here as Archer has gone 7+ innings five times this season. 

Bibens-Dirks is a journeyman of sorts whose lone big league experience prior to this came in relief. He was called up two weeks ago and has made four appearances total. Two of those were 1 1/3 innings or less and the Rangers have lost each of the last three times he's worked. His last appearance, which saw him need 84 pitches to get through four innings, saw him allow three runs including two homers. I realize Texas has been a lot better at home this year, but the pitching mismatch is too sizable to ignore. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Boston (8:10 ET): The Red Sox lost to the White Sox yday, 5-4, spoiling what was David Price's first start of the season. This year's big free agent acquisition, Chris Sale, toes the rubber tonight. You might be shocked to learn that it is Sale's former team (Chicago) that comes into this game sporting a better YTD run differential (+28 to +25) despite being slightly below .500. I don't think anyone, myself included, thought that the White Sox would be among the AL leaders for fewest number of runs allowed at this juncture of the season. But look for Sale to show them "what their missing" here as I anticipate a dominant performance from MLB's leader in WHIP (0.808).

Sale had been on a record-breaking pace in terms of strikeouts before a somewhat shaky start his last time out. What still ended up as a 9-4 win over Texas last Wednesday marked the 1st time in nine starts that the lefty failed to record at least 10 K's. He finished w/ "only" six and allowed four runs (three earned) in 7 1/3 innings of work. He is 4-0 here in May w/ a 49-8 KW ratio. He's allowed three runs or fewer in 8 of his 10 starts so far this year. This will be his 1st time starting against his former team, who he won 74 games for between 2010-16. Sadly for the White Sox, Sale may currently be having his best year ever. Not only does he lead all of baseball in WHIP, but he's #1 in opponents' on base percentage (.223). His MLB lead in strikeouts is almost preposterous as he has 23 more than the NL leader, Zack Greinke. Sale is just the fourth pitcher ever (Martinez, Schilling, Clemens) to post 100+ K's in his first 10 starts of a season.

Somewhat ironically, Sale will face off w/ the now de facto ace of the Chicago staff, Jose Quintana. While Quintana has pitched well in the past against Boston, he's hardly coming off his finest effort here. In fact, it was a season-worst showing as he allowed eight runs in just 4 1/3 innings at Arizona. As formidable as the D'backs offense has been this year at home, remember, they don't have a designated hitter and Boston does. The Red Sox offense, which was by far and away the best in baseball last season, is due to start scoring more as they are 2nd in team batting average and 3rd in OBP. I just can't see Chicago beating Boston two straight times, especially w/ Sale pitching here. 8* Boston

10* Philadelphia (7:10 ET): The Marlins avenged what was an abbreviated series sweep by the Phillies (two games) by winning yday, 4-1. It was their second straight win (1st time this month!) and third in the last four games. Given what was said in that last sentence, I think tonight would be a good time to fade them. The club posted a pair of three-game win streaks in starting 6-5 out of the gate this season, but since then has only won B2B games twice. Tonight's starting pitching matchup seems to be squarely in favor of the Phillies as well, making the ML all the more curious. Justin Nicalino projects to have as poor a start as any pitcher on the card Tuesday while the Phils' Vince Velasquez is better than the numbers show. Look for the road team to even this series. 

Just to give you a "lay of the land" w/ Miami, their Opening Day starter (Edinson Volquez) just won for the 1st time all season last night. Despite having won five of eight overall, the club is still only 8-18 in May. They have the majors' worst home record at 9-15. Injuries have decimated the starting infield. Compounding matters tonight is the fact Nicalino will be on the mound. His last start came on May 19th and not only did he allow a pair of home runs in four innings, he allowed five runs total in what turned out to be a 7-2 loss at the Dodgers. Through two starts, his walk rate is at a career worst 5.4 per nine innings. He's never been a high strikeout pitcher and having spent the better part of the last three seasons bouncing back between Triple-A and the big leagues, his numbers overall aren't getting any better. Miami is just 6-12 off a win this season.

Now Philadelphia is nothing to "write home about" either as they've dropped 23 of 29 to fall to 17-32 on the year, which is the worst record in all of baseball. But I believe Velasquez can be the difference tonight. He turned in a quality start against the Marlins earlier this year and is also off perhaps his finest showing of 2017 as last Thursday saw him hold the Rockies to just a single run in 5 IP. He also had seven strikeouts against just one walk. Overall, he's been better on the road as his ERA is roughly a point and a half lower. The Marlins have been one of Velasquez's favorite opponents through the years as he is 2-0 w/ a 2.96 ERA in four career starts against them. 10* Philadelphia

10* Under Mariners/Rockies (7:10 ET): In these Interleague matchups, I feel venue is one of the most important factors to handicap. That's because it determines whether or not an American League team loses the designated hitter spot from its batting order or the National League team gains it. In the case of yday's Over play on Cincy-Toronto, a Reds team already averaging more than 5.0 rpg made for a good Over play as they would (theoretically) benefit from the DH. Though that turned out to be a "moot point" (Blue Jays scored 17 runs on their own), the line of thinking remains valid. Here, we have quite the opposite situation. Seattle, a low-scoring team, LOSES the DH spot. Therefore, that should help counteract the park itself (Coors) where the # of total runs per game is "only" 10.6 to begin with. Take the Under here. 

Yesterday, the teams combined for 11 runs "on the nose" as Seattle took the opener, 6-5. With Colorado off to such a surprising start, it's odds to see them only 15-12 here at Coors Field. They are 14-5 off a loss though, so perhaps we should expect them to bounce back? Over the weekend, they exchanged shutouts w/ St. Louis before taking the finale of that three-game set, 8-4. Over the L7 games, the pitching staff has allowed just 2.7 rpg w/ opponents batting .226. In a major departure from past seasons, the Rockies are pretty respectable on the runs allowed side of the ledger. Starting tonight is Tyler Anderson, who is off B2B quality starts and has allowed 2 ER or fewer three of his past four turns in the rotation. He's allowed just 21 hits during that time (in 24 2/3 IP). His career ERA in IL play (all starts at home) is a respectable 3.26.

This will be a battle of lefties as the Mariners send out Ariel Mirand, who has allowed 2 ER or less in five of his past six outings. He has a 2.12 ERA and 1.059 WHIP his last three starts, all of them resulting in Unders. Overall, Seattle has been an Under team as yday's "push" snapped a streak of five in a row going Under. Keep in mind that before those five straight Unders, the team scored exactly one run in each of his previous four games! The M's have averaged just 2.4 rpg their last seven contests and it was somewhat surprising to see them scored six times yday given that they got nothing from the player who normally DH's, Nelsonn Cruz, who was 0 for 4. Cruz having to play right field here squeezes out a bat from the lineup that would be far more effective than the pitcher's spot here. Miranda is hitless in four at-bats this year. 10* Under Mariners/Rockies

10* Under Predators/Penguins (8:05 ET): We have an 8-seed playing the defending Stanley Cup Champions in this year's Finals, but this Predators-Penguins matchup is a lot more even that that sounds. Nashville has ridden a hot goalie all the way here as Pekka Rinne boasts a .941 save percentage in the playoffs. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has had to survive TWO Game 7's on their way here, one on the road (Washington) and the other a double OT affair. I see little to no edge when it comes to picking a Game 1 winner here, but the total - heavily juiced towards the Under - is appealing. As I already mentioned, Rinne is on fire for the Preds right now. Meanwhile, the Pens allowed two goals or fewer in all but one of the seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals. 

As I noted numerous times, Pittsburgh was matched up w/ an inferior opponent in its last series. Nashville is far better than your typical 8-seed, but they were outside the top 10 in scoring during the regular season and still have a losing record on the road. They've also struggled on the power play throughout the postseason, going just 7 of 47. But they still have Rinne, who has been downright ridiculous, allowing just 28 goals in 16 games. Any potential regression from him is counteracted by the fact the Penguins have struggled at puck possession since Kris Letang went down. The Under is 7-3-6 in all Predators' playoff games and this will be the 1st time since Game 1 of the first round that the O/U line is likely to close at 5.5. Value! 

Pittsburgh has a pretty good goalie too in Matt Murray, whose career .928 save percentage in the playoffs is certainly a big deal. Murray was arguably the difference against Ottawa once he came on in relief of Marc-Andre Fleury. In his four starts, he turned in a .945 save percentage, which is slightly higher than Rinne! As high-scoring as the Pens are, even they saw only two closing O/U lines of 5.5 in the last series and both of those games stayed Under. The Pens also get a break here w/ Nashville's Ryan Johansen being out for the series. He had 13 points in 14 games and only two other forwards on the team have hit double digit points here in the postseason. That, combined w/ the fact the Preds are allowing just 1.8 goals per game in the postseason make this an easy Under call for Game 1. 10* Under Predators/Penguins

10* Kansas City (7:15 ET): After a busy week (played eight games including doubleheader Saturday), this is not a very good spot for the Tigers, who have to stay on the road for a third consecutive series. They are facing a team that just got done playing three straight road series itself and while the Royals were the victims of my 10* Game of the Week Sunday (lost 10-1 to the Indians!), this is a far better team at home than on the road and I feel they are not being adequately priced due to the slow start to the season. Detroit is just 11-17 on the road and getting outscored by more than a full run per game. The offense typically goes in the "toilet" outside of Comerica Park w/ a collective .224 batting average. Yesterday saw them fail to even put a single runner on base through six-plus innings as they were held to three runs or fewer for the sixth time in the last nine games. Go w/ the home team here. 

The Tigers did end up scoring three times w/ six hits Sunday, but it wasn't nearly enough as they fell behind the White Sox 6-0 early. Aside from splitting the doubleheader on Saturday, the club hasn't won since Wednesday and has dropped seven of its last nine overall. Thanks in no small part to an incompetent bullpen (6.07 ERA on the road!), they've allowed the most runs in the entire American League this year w/ only the Mets and Padres over in NL having given up more. Starting tonight will be Daniel Norris, whose 1.621 WHIP isn't exactly pretty. Norris did pitch pretty well his last time out (at Houston), but hasn't been able to string together B2B quality efforts since his first two starts of the season.

The Royals were bludgeoned yday, but that was after taking the first two games in Cleveland. Without question, it has been a bad start to the season, but at least the team is above .500 at home (9-17 on the road) and for the month. Starting for them today will be Jason Hammel, who has been a massive disappointment coming over from the Cubs. His TSR is 1-8 and the lone win was May 5th. But he is off a quality effort at Yankee Stadium last week where he allowed just three runs in 6 IP. He also finished w/ a season-best 7 K's. Situationally, there is a massive edge for KC in Monday's opener as the Tigers may very well be "sucking on fumes" at this point. 10* Kansas City

8* Over Reds/Blue Jays (7:05 ET): This colorful Interleague series features two teams within "sniffing distance" of .500. But while that's cause for celebration in Cincinnati, Toronto is clearly one of the biggest disappointments in the American League right now. Regression was to be expected after an exodus of talent via free agency, but last place in the AL East was certainly not what the fan base had it mind. Nevertheless, the team had won five in a row prior to Sunday's 3-1 loss to the Rangers. Cincinnati took two of three in Philadelphia over the weekend and an offense averaging more than 5.0 runs per game now benefits from the usage of the designated hitter the next three games. That should lead to some higher scoring than expected affairs here North of the Border, including tonight. Take the Over.

For the fourth time this season, Lisalverto Bonilla will toe the rubber for the Reds. After an impressive 2017 debut against the Giants back on May 13th, he's been trending in the wrong direction. That includes an ugly performance vs. Colorado (not at Coors) where he allowed six runs in 5 1/3 innings. Bonilla has allowed a home run in every start so far, significant because the Blue Jays have had two games w/ 3+ HR over their last five. The Cincinnati bullpen has been shockingly good, particularly on the road thus far, but they are still giving up over 5.0 rpg for the year as a staff. That's facing National League lineups as well, without the DH, something they'll have to deal w/ here. The player who likely occupies that spot for Toronto here - Kendrys Morales - has nine home runs this year. 

Speaking of home runs, the Reds matched a season-high yday w/ three of them - and 12 hits overall - en route to an 8-4 victory. With a DH, they'll face Marcus Stroman tonight. While Stroman has not been beaten in over a month, there are some key numbers suggest that he is fortunate to be able to claim that. Such as allowing two home runs his last time out or having a 1.499 WHIP his last three starts overall. His last two starts have come in NL parks as well, which - as we've previously established - benefits the pitcher tremendously. Each of Stroman's last three starts have gone Over the total as not only did he allow two home runs in Milwaukee last Wednesday, but he also issued four walks. While there's a chance the Blue Jays don't have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth (heavy favorites on the money line here), I feel enough runs will have been scored by that time to send this one Ovr the total. 8* Over Reds/Blue Jays

8* NY Mets (4:10 ET): Typically, a team coming off the Sunday night game (in a day game, no less!) would give me pause, but given the way the Mets performed last night, I'll look past that. They have revenge here after being swept by Milwaukee earlier this month at Miller Park. The Brew Crew are currently your surprise leaders in the NL Central (yes, they are ahead of the Cubs), but I do not anticipate that lasting too long as this team is middle of the road in terms of runs allowed and 26th in WHIP and opponents' batting average. Doesn't sound like a sustainable blueprint to me. After losing five in a row, Milwaukee did post B2B wins over Arizona this weekend, but in breaking down this matchup, what really surprised me is that the Mets are every bit the equals of the Brewers offensively. Look for revenge to be sweet in the Big Apple Monday afternoon. 

We got a glimpse of the "old" Matt Harvey last night as "The Dark Knight" turned in his best pitching performance of 2017 by going six innings and allowing just one run. Hopefully, some of that rubbed off on today's starter, Robert Gsellman. In addition to having a hard to pronounce last name, like Harvey, Gsellman is looking to bounce back from a bit of a rough stretch (6.60 ERA, 1.80 WHIP L3 starts). But we did see some improvement his last time out, albeit against the lowly Padres, as he turned in a quality effort by allowing just three runs in 6 IP (Mets still lost 6-5). Save for one bad start against Atlanta, Gsellman has allowed exactly three runs in each of his other four home starts. He didn't exactly perform well against Milwaukee earlier this month, but again, that was on the road. The Brewers offense averages about a full run less per game on the road than they do at Miller Park.

It's not like Brewers' starter Matt Garza comes into this game in fine form either. Last time out, he allowed three home runs and six runs total in a loss to Toronto. That was at home mind you when the Blue Jays were w/o the DH. He has a 4.60 ERA in five career starts vs. the Mets. Prior to the series earlier this month, these teams hadn't actually played since June of last season. So it's been a LONG time since the Mets have beaten the Brewers (June 10, 2016). This will actually be the Brew Crew's first stop at Citi Field in a little over a calendar year! The revenge angle is big here as is the fact I'm just not a believer in the Brewers. 8* NY Mets

10* LA Dodgers (2:10 ET): Cardinals pitcher Mike Leake likely deserves far better than a 5-4 team start record given his NL-best 1.91 ERA and a 0.929 WHIP. But this will be his second straight start facing off against the Dodgers and Rich Hill. Though this angle failed me twice last week in the Royals-Yankees series, historically, it has been a big winner. The angle being taking the pitcher who lost the first meeting if facing the same pitcher for a second straight start. Furthermore, the Dodgers come in off a very impressive sweep of the Cubs where they posted B2B shutouts Friday/Saturday before winning 9-4 Sunday. Though not even in first place in their own division, a case could be made for the Dodgers being the best team in baseball right now (MLB best +78 run diff). I'm on them in this series opener.

The Dodgers took two of three from the Cards in last week's series. This Leake-Hill matchup was the lone loss. Hill did not pitch well at all, issuing seven walks while giving up five runs in just 4 IP. It was his worst start of the year and bad enough to make one wonder just how big the blister issue really is. But I fully anticipate a bounce back effort here. Though just 1-1 liftime against St. Louis (six starts), he's held them to a .202 batting average. The Redbirds come into today's game having scored an average of just 3.25 runs over their last eight games. They managed only seven runs total over the weekend and that was at the most hitter-friendly park in MLB (Coors Field). 

Leake was at his best last week at Chavez Ravine, but I'm still not all that impressed w/ his strikeout numbers. He hasn't registered more than five in any of his L5 starts. Behind him, there are some significant issues w/ the team, namely defense and the bullpen. The latter, Matt Bowman specifically, gave up four runs in the bottom of the eighth Sunday. That makes it 29 runs allowed by the Cards' pen over the L11 games. The defense also remains bad, for a second season in a row. They are tied for the fourth most errors in MLB and only two teams have a worse fielding percentage. That absolutely matters in today's game. Bottom line is that the the Dodgers, winners of 9 of their last 11 games, are playing at a much higher level right now than are the Cardinals, who have lost 8 of their last 11. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Under Mets/Pirates (8:05 ET): After suffering an ugly 8-1 loss in the series opener, Pittsburgh was able to bounce back here at home w/ a 5-4 win Saturday. The game went to extra innings only after John Jaso (who won the game in the 10th) singled in the game-tying run in the bottom of the ninth. Of course, a case could be made that the Bucs should have had the game "in the bag" much earlier, but a baserunning gaffe by Andrew McCutcheon kept the Mets alive. Even though exactly nine runs were scored in each of the first two games, I'm calling for the lowest scoring game of the series tonight as the home team is hardly an offensive juggernaut while Mets' road games are simply "due" to be lower scoring. Take the Under.

Incredibly, Mets' road games thus far have average 12.5 runs per game! That's played a big role in the team having gone Over in 30 of their 46 games (30-10-6) overall. So too has a bullpen that's blown save opportunities in five of its last seven tries. Therefore, there's some real pressure on Matt Harvey to pitch well tonight. "The Dark Knight" has been a shell of his former self for most of the year, but he's shown signs his L2 outings by allowing only five runs total in 10 1/3 IP. He allowed only three hits in his last start. Pittsburgh comes into this game just 23rd in runs scored while they are 27th in team batting average and slugging. They average less than 4.0 rpg at PNC Park (3.7). In other words, this is a lineup that Harvey should be able to handle.

On the flip side, we have Tyler Glasnow starting for the Pirates. Like Harvey, he has struggled much of this year, but is coming off a decent outing. He held Atlanta to just two runs in six innings of work Tuesday. The Mets have never faced him, which is an advantage for the pitcher. More often than not, the Over has cashed w/ Glasnow on the hill. In fact, his only start that has stayed Under was his first and ironically that was a game where he allowed five runs in 1 2/3 IP. Harvey also has been kind to Over bettors, but this projects to the highest O/U line for any of his starts all season. Look for both starters to be better than expected here and keep the respective offenses in check. 8* Under Mets/Pirates

10* Cleveland (1:10 ET): I remain pretty much astounded at how subpar Cleveland has been at home so far. Following yday's loss, they are 8-13 at Progressive Field, which is the worst home record in the American League. Only Miami (7-15 at home) is worse among National League clubs. They're now facing the prospect of getting swept here by the last place Royals after blowing leads each of the past two days. Friday saw an early 4-0 lead quickly evaporate into a 6-4 defeat while Saturday's 2-1 lead became a 5-2 loss. As a reminder, the Royals are - easily - the lowest scoring team in all of baseball. Meanwhile, the Indians are tied for the third fewest runs allowed in the A.L. They shouldn't be giving up this many runs, at home. I'll call for them to avoid the sweep here. 

The Tribe was projected to run away with the AL Central this year. But that's not happening due in large part to the team's struggles here at home. After sweeping the American League's best (Houston) last weekend on the road, it's been downright head-scratching to see them drop four of five to the Reds and Royals w/ all but one of the losses taking place here at Progressive Field. Josh Tomlin pitches today, looking to erase B2B poor starts. The last time he won may have been May 6th, but it was against KC, whom he held to just one run and three hits in seven innings of work. That improved Tomlin's all-time record to 9-4 against the Royals. Though he's given up some runs lately, a 27-2 KW rate over his last seven starts indicates that this is a pitcher w/ a decent skill set.

The Indians have not been swept here at home by the Royals (in a series of 3+ games) since 2003. That's a long time. So history is on their side and so too is the fact that KC is 28th in team batting average, OBP and slugging. That's in addition to being last (30th) in runs scored. They are just 5-11 in day games this season. There have been just two times so far that they have posted win streaks of more than two games. Both times saw them playing at home. Danny Duffy will toe the rubber today as the team looks to win for a fourth straight time w/ him on the mound. Duffy was a hard luck loser (1-0) when he faced Cleveland earlier this year and it's worth noting he has an 0-4 TSR vs. the division so far in 2017. I just can't see the Indians being swept here. 10* Cleveland

10* Arizona (4:10 ET): Neither Arizona nor Milwaukee was expected to be a legit contender in 2017, yet both started off the season well. However, of late, they've been trending in opposite directions. The D'backs have won five in a row while the Brew Crew have lost five in a row and that includes a pair of wins by the road team here in Miller Park the last two days. With a significant pitching edge today (Zack Greinke), I see this trend continuing. Arizona is now #2 in all of MLB in run differential (+60!), trailing only the division rival Dodgers. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is a curious 12-15 at home. With a lineup minus Ryan Braun already scuffling, I don't see them having many answers for Greinke today.

Each of the last four times Greinke has taken the mound, the D'backs have won. He has a 0.66 WHIP in May and last time out, he was downright dominant. He came one out shy of a complete game and allowed just one run on four hits while striking out a season-high 12 batters. Miller Park is a place Greinke used to call home (from 2011-13) as a member of the Brewers' roster and during that time he always dominated here. In 26 career starts in this ballpark, he is 16-2 w/ a 3.07 ERA. He's currently working on a 12 2/3 inning scoreless streak against his former team. With this edition of the Brew Crew having scored just nine runs total in the last four games, it seems like an ideal matchup today for Greinke.  Benefiting from betting pitch framing this season, Greinke's strikeout rate is up to a career best 29.9 percent.

Overall, Arizona has won 10 of its last 11. The pitching staff ranks a surprising 2nd in opponents batting average (.232), but the offense has also done its job by scoring the third most runs in all of baseball. So I like their chances today against Chase Anderson, who checks in w/ a 7.71 ERA and 2.071 WHIP his L3 starts. He was hammered his last time out, giving up six runs in just four innings at Chicago. He has fewer strikeouts in his last three starts combined than Grienke did his last time out alone. Unlike Arizona, the Brewers' pitching staff has simply not gotten the job done this year. They are dead last in opponents' batting average (.269) and 29th in quality starts. The offense, now dormant, carried the team early on. But are they fortunate to rank 4th in runs scored? Considering they are just 13th in team batting average and 16th in on base percentage, I'd say yes. 10* Arizona

8* Cleveland (4:10 ET): I think its fair to say that the Indians have been a slight disappointment so far in 2017. Coming off their first American League pennant in 20 years, they've started just 24-22 and aren't even in first place of a division that were expected to run away with. Most confounding of all is the team's 8-12 record here at Progressive Field. Despite jumping out to a 4-0 lead last night, the club lost again, to the Royals no less. Allowing a six-run rally to the lowest scoring team in all of MLB certainly is not a "good look" for the Tribe, but nevertheless I anticipate them bouncing back today w/ Danny Salazar on the bump. A rare error by SS Francisco Lindor was the key play in last night's game and something like that is certainly not likely to happen again. 

Back to back offensive outbursts from the Royals have been rare this season. Consider that while last night marked the third time in the past five games they scored six times, they've totaled just two runs off the previous two occurrences. Last time in the situation, they were shutout by the Yankees on Wednesday. Not only does this team rank dead last in MLB in runs scored, but they are also 28th in team batting average, OBP and slugging. While Salazar has struggled a bit here in the month of May, he did have one relatively good outing against the Royals where he struck out seven in 4 2/3 innings and gave up just two runs. This is a talented pitcher that I believe is likely to turn things around sooner rather than later. 

Last night, the Royals got a bullpen performance that was reminiscent of their B2B runs to the World Series. Their relievers held the Indians to just three hits over six scoreless innings. But for the year, the bullpen has a 5.67 ERA and 1.590 WHIP in road games. Cleveland's bullpen has been much better w/ Chad Allen (13.7 K's per nine innings) and Andrew Miller (0.72 ERA) leading the way. It was really too bad that starter Mike Clevinger wasn't able to hold the lead last night. Another factor that has me on the Tribe here is performance in day games. They are 10-5 while the Royals are 4-11. KC will be starting Jason Vargas, who has an 8.10 ERA his L2 starts, both against the Yankees. His career ERA against the Indians is 4.33. 8* Cleveland

10* Under Reds/Phillies (4:05 ET): These two clubs have spent the majority of 2017 going Over the total thus far. Of course, that was to be expected from two bad teams projected to have less than stellar pitching staffs. But, matched up w/ one another last night, they stayed Under the total as the Reds prevailed 5-2 here in the City of Brotherly Love. Credit Cincinnati starter Tim Adelman for that as he held the Phillies to just ONE hit over eight sparkling innings. (Both runs for the home team came in a relatively meaningless rally in the bottom of the ninth). While a similar performance may not be expected today from Bronson Arroyo, note that the Phils simply aren't hitting much or scoring right now, thus Under is the play here.

Philadelphia has been held to three runs or fewer in six consecutive contests. Over the last week, they're batting a collective .164. Yesterday marked the fourth time in the last six games that they were held to only three hits. Over the last 14 games, the team is averaging less than 3.0 runs per game (2.9). While one might look at Arroyo's last two starts (11 runs & 17 hits allowed) as cause for concern here, note Adelman came into yday sporting a 6.19 ERA this season. So there's hope for any pitcher against the Phillies right now. At one point, Adelman was able to retire 16 consecutive batters. Of his 24 total outs recorded, 16 were via ground ball.

Phillies starter Jack Eickhoff is all too familiar w/ his team's offensive futility. The team has scored just one run in each of his last two outings. That's too bad because the righty has been relatively sharp. He has 12 K's in his last 12 IP and much of the damage done against him in his last start (vs. Colorado) came on two fluky hits. While still winless over nine starts (1-8 TSR), Eickhoff is certainly better than his record (0-5). The Reds' scoring average drops a full run per game on the road (.317 OBP), so that's good. With Philly not hitting much right now and Eickhoff likely to perform better than expected, I'm expecting runs to be few and far between in this Saturday afternoon matchup. It would obviously be great if we didn't have to play the bottom of the ninth as well. 10* Under Reds/Phillies

10* Tampa Bay (8:10 ET): The surprising Twins (in first place in the AL Central!) had the day off Thursday after an impressive sweep of Baltimore, in Camden Yards no less. But upon their return home, they'll have to deal w/ Chris Archer in this series opener w/ the Rays. Tampa Bay has been a bit streak of late, going WWWWLLLWW over its previous nine games. The last two wins, including a shutout yday, came at the Angels' expense as they were able to salvage a split of a four-game series at home. The Twins, surprisingly, have a losing record at Target Field and I see a somewhat massive pitching mismatch here. Considering I'm not a believer in Minnesota, I say go w/ Archer and the Rays in this one. 

No starter lost more units at the betting window in '16 than did Archer. But many, myself included, tabbed him for a bounce back season here in '17. Things certainly started out well for him as the team won each of his first four starts this season. But since then, they've dropped five of six w/ him on the mound. There was one bad outing (at Cleveland), but in his other three May starts his KW ratio is a sick 34-3! I expect him to pitch well here considering a 5-1 record & 1.73 ERA in six career starts vs. Minnesota. That's his second lowest ERA against any opponent that he's faced at least five times. Here at Target Field, he's been really good w/ a 3-0 record and 0.98 ERA, which is the second lowest ERA for any pitcher w/ at least three starts in the park's history. 

I don't see Twins starter Hector Santiago matching up well here. He has a 6.90 ERA and 1.813 WHIP his L3 starts, including his own terrible outing against Cleveland. Santiago's strikeout numbers can't even compare to those of Archer as the former has just TWO total in his last two starts! Over his L4 starts, he has a NEGATIVE KW ratio of 10-11. That's terrible. Something I find interesting is that despite the Rays being "only" .500 and the Twins being seven games over, it is TB w/ the better overall run differential (+23 vs. +4). That indicates to me that Minnesota is a little lucky to be where they're at right now. They've actually been outscored by 0.7 runs per game at home so far. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Boston (7:05 ET): Both of these teams treated me well on Thursday as I had the Mariners Under + the Red Sox, both easy winners. Seattle winning 4-2 at Washington was certainly a surprise though, given what had happened to them not just the first two games of that series, but the previous four games overall. A five-game losing skid had seen the M's get outscored by a stunning 41-5 margin by the White Sox and Nats. Therefore Boston, fresh off a sweep of Texas, has to be licking its chops here. The Red Sox offense seems to have rediscovered 2016 form w/ 38 runs scored during a four-game win streak. You have to like their chances then going up against the embattled Yovani Gallardo, whose continued presence only serves to reinforce how injured this Mariners rotation is. Seattle isn't a good road team either (8-18 away from Safeco Field).

Gallardo was absolutely bludgeoned his last time out, giving up 10 runs in 3 2/3 innings. The final result was White Sox 16, Seattle 1 and that's what begat the M's losing skid. Obviously, a performance such as that will negatively skew all numbers, but the bottom line here is that Gallardo simply is not very good. He has a 5.28 career ERA vs. Boston including two poor starts (w/ Baltimore) last season. He probably shouldn't be counting on his offense for much support here either considering yday's four run output matched what they'd done the previous four games - combined. Seattle isn't just losing on the road this season, they are losing badly as is evident by the fact they're being outscored by 1.3 runs per game away from home. 

Boston will send Eduardo Rodriguez to the bump in search of his fourth straight win. Rodriguez has become something of a "stopper" in the Red Sox rotation as all of his previous eight starts have come after a team loss. His team start record is 6-2 and he's coming off six consecutive quality starts. His last one was his longest stint of the season as he went eight full innings at Oakland and allowed just three runs in an easy 12-3 win. That performance dipped his WHIP to an impressive 0.85 his L3 starts overall. If this one were to come down to the respective bullpens, that's a big edge for Boston, especially w/ Craig Kimbrell, who has retired 33 of the past 34 batters he has faced and not allowed a single hit to a right-handed hitter ALL SEASON! 8* Boston

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Blue Jays have surprisingly handled the Rangers each of the previous two seasons, winning 14 of 21 head to head matchups and eliminating them from the postseason both times. This will be their first time meeting since last year's LDS, which ended up being a three-game sweep. Given the way that this season started, the playoffs had to be the furthest thing from Toronto's mind. But a seven-game road trip that took them through three cities, two of them National League, just ended w/ a three-game win streak. Texas, back at .500 despite recently winning 10 in a row, is heading in the other direction after being swept at Boston. I like the Jays in this series opener. 

Don't be fooled by Rangers' starter AJ Griffin having a 6-1 team start record as his ERA is 5.02 and his WHIP is 1.195. He suffered his first loss last time out when he got shelled for nine runs in 3 1/3 innings (allowed 4 HR's!) by Detroit. He only has three quality starts to his credit and so far he's gotten to face a pretty weak slate of teams (including Oakland three times!). Toronto saw its bats come alive a bit as they averaged 5.1 runs per game on the recently completed road trip. Now they need to focus on producing at home. Increasing the likelihood that will occur is the fact that both members of the right side of the team's starting infield - third baseman Josh Donaldson and SS Troy Tulowitzki - are expected back in the lineup for the 1st time since April. That duo being back will also aid the team in the field obviously. 

Meanwhile, Texas has some problems at the plate right now. They struck out 20 times yday in Boston and are batting a collective .218 on the road this season. That's good news for Blue Jays' starter Mike Bolsinger, who has yet to win any of his previous three trips to the mound. None of the three have been particularly good either, but I see him performing better than Griffin here. Griffin has allowed a total of seven home runs his last two starts and behind him is a Rangers' pen which has an unsightly 6.94 ERA and 1.910 WHIP on the road. 8* Toronto

8* Los Angeles (10:10 ET): Well, I sure was wrong firing on the Dodgers last night (they lost 6-1), but I'll still come back with them here, citing many of the same reasons in did in yday's analysis. They still have the best run differential in MLB (+60) and that's due in no small part to the fact they are beating opponents by an average of more than two full runs per game here at Chavez Ravine. So consider last night's result to be nothing more than an abberration. Tonight's starter Kenta Maeda owns a 0.986 WHIP at home so far, so he should be more than able to tame a Cardinals lineup which is already only batting .229 its last seven games. 

Going into last night, the Dodgers had won five of six overall and had held the opposition to three or fewer runs in 13 of the past 17 games. What happened yday was starter Rich Hill had all sorts of control issues (seven walks!) and they ran into a hot pitcher, Mike Leake. But still, no team in the National League has allowed fewer runs than this one. Maeda has a misleading ERA here at home (4.07) as his WHIP (as stated above) is 0.986. He's coming off the DL here, but over his last three starts, he has a 2.21 ERA and 0.836 WHIP. Last time out (May 10th), he was a couple of outs shy of a complete game, while holding the Pirates to just two runs and five hits.

Cardinals' pitching has also been really good of late w/ tonight's starter Michael Wacha coming off six shutout innings of four-hit ball his last time out. But the team still lost that game, 6-5, and his TSR is just 3-4. Certainly, you can't place all of the blame on Wacha for that record, but something else to consider here is that he's only pitched away from home twice this year and his WHIP is 1.50. The Dodgers are too good to drop B2B home games, something they have not done in over a month. 8* Los Angeles

10* Under Cavaliers/Celtics (8:35): Entering this game, Cleveland has yet to go Under in B2B games at any point this postseason. I'll call for that trend to end Thursday as they look to close out Boston once and for all. One could make the arguement that this year's Eastern Conference Finals should "already be over," but in Game 3 Sunday, the Cavs improbably blew a 21-point second half lead (at home!) and lost outright as 17-point favorites. Behind a virtuoso peformance from Kyrie Irving (42 points), they then turned the tables on the Celtics in Game 4 by erasing a 16-point deficit and winning. Once again, Cleveland shot the lights out (59.5% overall!) and Boston, who is w/o its best player (Isaiah Thomas) simply could not keep up. On the road, I do not believe the Cavs will be able to shoot the ball that well again, meaning this game should be lower scoring than expected. Take the Under.

In the first two games here in Boston, the Celtics managed just 39 and 31 points in the first half. That was w/ Thomas in the lineup. Getting career performances from a number of players in Game 3 was the key to victory, but then everybody regressed Tuesday as they shot just 32.3% from behind the arc and finished w/ "only" 99 points. I just don't think that the Celtics have the horses offensively to compete here. They were held to just 42 points in the second half of Game 4. They are 10-3 Under the L3 seasons when trailing in a playoff series. Save for the stunning 18 of 40 performance in Game 3, they've just been dreadful from three-point range in this series, shooting below 33% in the other three games. I don't see that turning around here. The Under is 7-2 the last nine times Boston has hosted Cleveland.

The key to this Under play is obviously Cleveland getting held in relative check. No way they shoot 71% in a half again, like they did in the second on Tuesday. Note that after shooting 56.5% overall in Game 2, they dropped down to series worsts of 108 pts and 45.7% shooting the next game, their only loss in the series. I still believe we're due to see some more regression from three-point range from this team as they're on an almost historical pace this postseason. Irving isn't likely to match his production from Game 4 and LeBron James (reportedly sick) hasn't really been himself the last two games either. Irving rolled his ankle Tuesday as well. Meanwhile, as already stated numerous times, Boston just lacks firepower as they are down not only Thomas, but Amir Johnson missed the last game and rookie Jaylen Brown may miss this one. 10* Under Cavaliers/Celtics

10* Pittsburgh (8:05 ET): Given my overall view of the Senators throughout this postseason, this play should not come as much of a shock if you've been following me for any length of time. Ottawa was the ONLY playoff team to get outscored during the regular season. They ranked just 22nd in goals scored, 23rd on the power play and 22nd in penalty killing. Basically, they profiled as a below average team coming into the playoffs. But somehow they've been able to get past the Bruins and the Rangers and now find themselves in a winner take all scenario against the far more talented Penguins. That can be explained by the fact that 9 of their 11 playoff wins have been by one goal, six of those coming in overtime. They've actually been outscored here in the playoffs (-2) as well. I'm calling for the Penguins to advance to their second straight Stanley Cup Final. 

The last game here in Pittsburgh (Sunday) saw the home team drub the Sens, 7-0. But there was a somewhat predictable letdown on the road in Game 6 as they fell up in Ottawa, 2-1. Still though, the Pens outshot the Senators in that game, 46-30. Needless to say, it was a much different Craig Anderson than we saw in Game 5. My one concern w/ Pittsburgh this season has been the # of shots allowed, but they've done a good job in that department, allowing an average of only 26.6 per game the L5 games. At the same time, they've averaged 34.4 per game themselves. Despite what happened in Game 6, I still give Matt Murray the edge over Anderson between the pipes. The Pens won the first two games w/ Murray in net as he stopped 49 of 51 shots. 

While trends show that there is no real home ice advantage in Game 7's of the NHL Playoffs, I absolutely think there is one here. Ottawa has NEVER won a Game 7 in franchise history (0-5) and is playing in a place where they've won just one time in the last seven tries. Furthermore, the Penguins are 36-13 SU at home this year, outscoring opponents by more than a full goal per game. The money line says it all for this matchup as I believe Ottawa's improbable playoff run comes to an end Thursday night. 10* Pittsburgh 

8* Boston (7:10 ET): After winning 11 of its previous 12 games, the Rangers have come here to Beantown and dropped two in a row, by scores of 11-6 and 9-4. They figure to give up plenty of runs yet again in this evening's series finale given that they are turning to Nick Martinez, who I've given the lowest grade of any starter this week. Martinez comes in off a good outing and his overall numbers are by no means atrocious. But he's facing a lineup that has scored 32 runs total the last three games and his ERA/WHIP on the road this season are 5.51/1.592 respectively. So there's certainly hope here for Boston starter Drew Pomeranz, who is winless over his L3 starts. I'll call for the Red Sox to finish off a sweep here as these teams are set to trend in very opposite directions. 

Last night, the Red Sox were actually trailing 3-1 heading into the home half of the seventh inning. But that is when they exploded for seven runs, which was more than enough w/ Chris Sale still pitching. As mentioned above, this lineup is beginning to rediscover 2016 form w/ 32 runs scored over the last three games. That trend should continue here against Martinez, who hasn't made it past the sixth inning in any of his L5 starts. That likely means trouble given the major problems going on in the Rangers' bullpen right now. On the road, their relievers have posted a woeful 6.98 ERA and 1.900 WHIP this year. Last night obviously did not help in that department. This team is only 8-15 in road games so far, giving up an average of 5.2 runs per game.

It's not just Martinez and the bullpen that Texas fans need to be concerned about here. The defense has also been bad in this series. It hasn't helped that their pitchers have six wild pitches and a balk either. Current Boston hitters are batting .373 lifetime against Martinez. As for Pomeranz, while he's struggled of late, he did have six strikeouts in four innings his last time out and gave up just two runs (one earned). If this one comes down to the respective bullpens, then it's a no contest as the Red Sox relievers have posted a 2.60 ERA here at Fenway. 8* Boston

10* Under Mariners/Nationals (12:10 ET): Note the start time for this game has been moved up. That's probably just fine by the Mariners, who likely can't wait to get the hell out of D.C. after what's happened here in the Nation's Capital so far. They've been drubbed 10-1 and 5-1 by the Nats in the first two games, which is a continuation of an absolutely dreadful stretch of baseball for the M's, one that has seen them get held to just a single run in each of five consecutive losses while being outscored 41-5 overall. I get that Washington's offense leads the league in all key statistical categories, but this O/U line simply seems too high given Seattle's string of recent performances. I don't think the Nats will be able to do all the "heavy lifting" themselves here. Take the Under. 

If the M's are too have a chance here, it likely rests on the arm of starter Ariel Miranda, who in B2B starts has allowed just one run. Furthermore, he's given up just seven hits in 12 IP. Last time out, he went seven innings, allowing just one run on four hits in a 2-1 loss to the White Sox. He's also posted 17 K's over the L2 starts. Miranda has had a couple of rocky outings thus far in 2017, but overall he's allowed 2 ER or less in five of his last seven starts. It will be very difficult for Washington to maintain some its current offensive pace and we've already started to see a bit of a decline as they're hitting a collective .231 over the past week. They've been held to eight or fewer hits in six of the past seven games. 

Gio Gonzalez enters tonight's start w/ an 0-3 team start record his L3 starts. But he's been a much different pitcher here at home where his ERA is 1.41 in five starts.The Nats' lefty will be facing a lineup that is minus it's usual DH spot and is hitting a collective .186 the L7 days. Five straight games scoring just one run is certainly not a positive development, no matter what way you slice it, and the top two hitters in the lineup (Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz) are a combined 1 for 22 lifetime against Gonzalez. Gonzalez is 6-2 w/ a 3.27 ERA in 12 career starts vs. Seattle. Aside from the opener of this series, Washington has not scored more than five runs in any game over the past week. 10* Under Mariners/Nationals

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): A sizable gap is starting to form in the National League West as three of the top four run differentials in the Senior Circuit belong to teams from this division. So too do the two worst. There's already a 7.5 game gap between the two groupings. Despite being in third place currently, the Dodgers are still my call as the West's top team. They actually have the best run differential in all of MLB (+65) thanks in large part to having allowed the fewest number of runs (165). St. Louis has allowed the second fewest number of runs in the N.L., so true to form these teams played to a 2-1 final last night, a game which featured a total of just seven hits (in 13 innings!). It's another strong looking pitching matchup tonight, but I again have to side w/ Dodger Blue as they're outscoring foes by an impressive 2.4 runs per game here at Chavez Ravine.

Overall, the Cardinals have now dropped five of six to fall from their perch in the NL Central. The way they lost last night was particularly gut-wrenching as they'd tied the game in the top half of the ninth only to still lose in extras. Even w/ Mike Leake on the bump tonight, it's highly unlikely that they will keep this Dodgers lineup in check to the degree they did last night. LA actually went 11 innings between runs, a Yasmani Grandal HR in the 1st and then the GW double by Logan Forsythe. Leake may be 8 for 8 in terms of quality starts this year, but he's facing a lineup that averages 5.6 runs per game at home. Leake has also struggled against the Dodgers in his career (4.26 ERA in 10 games), including a 5.25 ERA in a pair of games last year. I also seriously doubt he'll be able to maintain an opponents' batting average of .000 (0 for 18) w/ two outs & RISP.

The Dodgers, conversely, have won five of their last six games. In 13 of the past 17 games, they've allowed three runs or less, which is really impressive. Rich Hill is the starter tonight. Due to a blister issue, he's made only three starts in '17. His last one was the best as he allowed just one run and six hits in 5 IP w/ a 6-0 KW ratio. Unfortunately, it was a hard luck 2-1 loss that day for the Dodgers. Hill is a lefty and traditionally southpaws have been an issue for the Cardinals' (mostly) righty lineup. This season, St. Louis is just 3-6 when facing a LH starter. I just really like this Dodgers team and feel they are set to "take off." 8* LA Dodgers

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Braves pitcher Julio Teheran finished last season w/ a 10-20 team start record, but that was highly misleading considering he also posted a 3.21 ERA and 1.053 WHIP. Lack of run support, more often than not, doomed him in 2016. Thus, I quickly tabbed him for a bounce back 2017. That hasn't really taken place yet as his TSR is 3-6 and his ERA/WHIP are both significantly WORSE than last year. But I'm not ready to abandon ship. Three times this year, he's held the opponent w/o an earned run. Last time out was NOT one of those occasions as he was tagged for NINE runs in just three innings by Toronto in a season-worst showing. I expect him to bounce back from that tonight, however, as Atlanta aims to make it three in a row over the Pirates. 

One of the three times Teheran didn't allow an earned run this year came against this Pirates team, back in the second start of the year. Unfortunately, he did allow two unearned runs that day and the Braves lost 6-5. That series (at PNC Park) would see the Bucs go on to sweep, but it's been a complete 180 of that so far here at Sun Trust Park. Atlanta has taken the first two games of this four game set, 5-2 and 6-5. I took them in Monday's opener and then last night featured a three-hour rain delay before a wild ninth inning which saw both teams score twice. Losing in such a fashion does no favors for the road team here as finishing up at 2 AM ET is no fun when you lose. As I said in Monday's analysis, I feel that the Braves are being underrated by the oddsmakers here as they actually have a better run differential than Pittsburgh, who is down to -36 for the year (Atlanta -19).

The Braves have actually now won 9 of 12 and what's really impressive about that is they've been w/o their best hitter, Freddie Freeman. But Matt Adams, acquired last week from St. Louis, has come in and paid dividends. He's homered twice in three games and supplied the GW hit last night. I like the offense's chances tonight against struggling Trevor Williams, who's likely to be sent packing from the rotation after this start anyway (Jameson Taillon set to returm). In four starts so far, Williams has a 6.58 ERA and 1.390. I realize Teheran has struggled in the Braves' new stadium, but he's due to improve and has a 3.00 ERA in eight career appearances vs. the Pirates. Braves are the better team here and have the better starting pitcher. 10* Atlanta

10* Over White Sox/Diamondbacks (9:40 ET): After allowing only three runs in three games (all wins) against Seattle over the weekend, the White Sox got a taste of their own medicine Monday as Zack Greinke and the D'backs held them to just a single score. That was a far cry from the 24 they scored the previous two games. Surprising is that this staff ranks near the top of the A.L. in runs allowed, so w/ the loss of the DH from the lineup here, you'd likely expect more Unders like last night. But not so fast. We have two subpar starters tonight, including Dylan Covey for the White Sox, who may be the worst starter in the entire American League. Chase Field has certainly proven to be "hitter-friendly" in 2017 and that's thanks in large part to the home team. Take the Over.

The D'backs are now averaging 6.0 runs per game at home this year while batting a collective .295. They should have little difficulty here against Covey, who checks in w/ a horrible 7.64 ERA and 1.783 WHIP. Things only have continued to get worse for Covey as he has allowed a total of eight home runs his L4 starts (two each time) and only once all season has he made it past the sixth inning. Last time out, he allowed four runs in 6 IP, which sadly isn't even that bad by his poor standards. On the road this year, Covey has an ERA of 8.33 and a WHIP of 1.852. Obviously, being that he will have to come up to bat in this game, Covey will probably be on a "short leash." But that could mean trouble for a White Sox bullpen that was used heavily in last night's loss.

Arizona won't have the luxury of having Greinke on the mound again here. No, instead it will be Patrick Corbin, who has a 9.00 ERA and 1.75 WHIP his L3 starts. One of those was a disaster at Coors Field in Colorado, but he's also allowed 4 ER in B2B starts here at home against the Mets and Pirates, two rather light-hitting ball clubs. Arizona is one of six teams in baseball whose home games are averaging at least 10 total runs per game. With two suspect starters on the hill tonight, expect that average to be topped. 10* Over White Sox/D'backs

8* Boston (8:35 ET): Going into Sunday night, it was considered a formality that both the Cavaliers and Warriors would sweep their way into a third straight NBA Finals matchup. Golden State has since held up its end of the bargain, but something funny happened in Cleveland. The Cavs lost Game 3, at home, despite holding a 21-point lead in the second half. It appeared as if they completely "shut it down" far too early, thereby enabling the Boston comeback. Keep in mind that the Celtics were w/o their best player, Isaiah Thomas, and that will continue to be the case the rest of the way. Despite the shocking win Sunday night, the oddsmakers have made no real adjustment for Game 4 and I believe that to be a mistake. Take the points here as the Cavs' level of dominance in the first two games continues to skew the number far too much in their favor.

Obviously, I would be stunned at another outright win by the Celtics here. LeBron James is highly unlikely to go "M.I.A." again like he did in the second half of Game 3. But we finally did start to see some regression from the Cleveland side when it comes to three-point shooting. Currently, the team is on pace to set a new NBA record for # of three-pointers made per game. They're over 15.0 per game right now and eventually that number is going to drop. They also obviously are not going to continue shooting at a near 60% clip from two-point range, something they did in Games 1 and 2 in Boston. Let's also not forget about the Cavs' defensive issues from the regular season where they finished just 22nd in efficiency.

Without Thomas, Boston got a number of key contributions in Game 3. Front and center was Marcus Smart, who made seven three-pointers and finished w/ 27 points. Avery Bradley hit the game-winner and finished w/ 20 points. Kelly Olynyk and Jonas Jerebko were both key contributors off the bench. Obviously, not all these players will be able to perform at the level we saw Sunday. But I also don't think all are going to regress either. As long as someone can step up for the Celtics, they should be more than capable of staying within this very generous number. 8* Boston

8* Over Penguins/Senators (8:05 ET): After scoring just three times total in the first three games, the Penguins doubled their number of goals in the Eastern Conference Finals w/ a 3-2 win in Game 4 and then exploded for seven more in a 7-0 rout in Game 5. Now, the highest scoring team in the regular season is just one win away from its second straight Stanley Cup Finals while Ottawa finds itself trailing in a series for the first time in these playoffs. As dismissive as I've been of the Senators throughout this postseason, I don't want to completely write them off here at home, so instead we turn to the total. The Over is 4-0-2 in Pens' road games this season when the O/U line is 5.0 and considering they went Over by themselves Sunday, that's the way to go here. Take the Over.

I had been waiting for Sens' goalie Craig Anderson to start regressing and it finally happened in Game 5. He was chased after allowing four goals on 14 shots, but the deluge of Penguins goals hardly stopped there. It's nice to see the number of shot attempts on the Pittsburgh side up as they've finished the last two games w/ 35 and 36 respectively. In all, seven different players scored for the Pens in Game 5. Again, I shouldn't have to remind you that this was the highest scoring team in the league during the regular season (3.4 goals per game) and they were also third on the power play. They were a perfect 3 for 3 when on the man advantage in Game 5.

Ottawa has been held to an average of less than 26 shots the last four games and Pittsburgh's change between the pipes from Marc-Andre Fleury to Matt Murray certainly seems to have provided a spark that has drastically altered the series. Since coming in during Game 3, Murray has stopped 68 of 71 shots and been a real difference maker. But don't forget that the Pens are down a number of significant contributors on the blue line. Remember after being shutout in Game 2 at Pittsburgh, the Senators responded w/ a five-goal effort here at home in Game 3. Not saying that will repeat itself here, but we should certainly see enough scoring from both sides to exceed the oddsmakers' total. 8* Over Penguins/Senators

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): Not that it's time to worry (yet), but the defending American League Champions are certainly underachieving over the first two months of 2017. Following a 5-1 loss to the Reds last night, they're just 23-20 for the year and trail surprising Minnesota by one game in the Central Division. Making what happened last night all the more frustrating is the fact the Tribe was coming off an impressive three-game sweep of the Astros, in Houston no less. The loss came to a team that had dropped eight of nine as well. An unlikely quality start from Scott Feldman was the catalyst for Cincy last night, but the pitching matchup looks to be - squarely - in favor of Cleveland tonight. I'll call for them to bounce back behind Carlos Carrasco. 

The Reds' rotation is dead last among NL teams in both ERA and innings pitched. So Feldman's performance last night was definitely a revelation. But don't expect a repeat from tonight's starter, Amir Garrett, who sports a 5.17 ERA in seven starts. Last time out, he was charged w/ six runs in just four innings of work and it was the third time in four starts he allowed multiple home runs. As much as Cleveland has scuffled at the plate thus far, they should be able to get to a pitcher like Garrett. They've hit lefties better anyway this season. The Indians are also 0-4 in Interleague play thus far, something you would NOT expect given the AL's year to year dominance in IL play.

On the runs allowed side of the ledger, the Indians are just fine. They've allowed only 173 runs in 43 games, good enough for second best in the entire American League (trailing only Houston). His last start aside, Carrasco remains a good option to have on the mound. He still sports a 2.60 ERA and 0.884 WHIP and on the road he's been especially dominant by winning all four starts w/ a 1.35 ERA and 0.675 WHIP. Carrasco left his start early, not just due to ineffectiveness, but also pectoral tightness. However, everything has checked out and he'll be working on more than a week's rest here. Expect a quality start and the better team to take care of business. 8* Cleveland

10* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): Kansas City lost for me yday, 4-2, and the final run they gave up (in the 7th) was critical as I had them on the run line (+1.5). Now they find themselves in the opposite situation of last night as the pitching matchup is another revenge-filled affair, but this time in favor of the Yankees. Granted, the situation did not work out the way I had hoped last night, but it remains time-tested and furthermore, I think it's become quite clear that the Yanks are simply the better team here anyway. Not only are they 26-16 w/ an AL-best +57 run differential, but they're also 7-1 head to head vs. the Royals since the start of last season. KC has now fallen to 18-26 overall (6-15 on the road) w/ an AL-worst -47 run differential. So these teams are "worlds apart" right now. 

Last Thursday, the Royals were able to avoid a sweep (at home) by beating the Yankees 5-1 behind a sparkling effort from left-hander Danny Duffy, who threw seven scoreless innings of three-hit ball while striking out 10 batters. It marked the seventh time in nine starts that Duffy allowed 2 ER or less and what's really impressive is that he hasn't allowed a home run since his second start of the year, back on April 8th. But, as noted in yday's analysis, pitching really hasn't been the problem for the Royals this year. Offense has. They come into tonight having scored - by far - the fewest number of runs in baseball while also ranking 28th in team batting average, slugging and OBP. Another issue here is that the bullpen is a lot worse on the road w/ a 6.29 ERA and 1.660 WHIP. So, unless Duffy is spectacular again, the chances of a KC win here seem slim.

The pitcher Duffy beat last Thursday was Joe Montgomery. The two match up again here. Montgomery allowed all five runs the first go-around and the team is only 1-4 his L5 starts. But as I've stressed numerous times before, it's rare for a pitcher to beat another in two straight starts. Yes, it just happened last night, but the Yankees being the far superior team had a major hand in that. The NY offense has actually gone five straight games w/ 8 or fewer hits, but I don't see that lasting, even against Duffy. This lineup averages 6.3 runs/game in the Bronx and just hit 3 HR's yday. That last start from Montgomery was easily his worst of '17, so I see him bouncing back as opponents are batting just .216 w/ RISP against him. 10* NY Yankees

10* Under Warriors/Spurs (9:05 ET): At this point, Golden State advancing to its third consecutive NBA Finals seems like mere formality. They've won the L2 games by double digits, beating the undermanned Spurs by 36 and 12 points. Clearly, this series swung on the Kwahi Leonard injury as when he went down (ankle), San Antonio was leading Game 1 by 25 points. Since then, the Warriors have outscored the Spurs by 70 points over the last 10 quarters. I'm staying away from the side in Game 4 as its seems as if the oddsmakers have finally adjusted accordingly, but the total now offers some value after each of the first three games went Over the total. Tonight, the O/U line figures to close at a series high-point, so Under is the call here as San Antonio's ONLY shot is to turn this into a low-possession, low-scoring affair.

These were the #1 and #2 teams in defensive efficiency during the regular season. In the playoffs though, Golden State has taken its defense up a notch as they are they are barely allowing one point per possession. The Spurs defense has obviously slipped the L2 games w/o their ace defender Leonard, but his absence also has an effect on the offensive end as well. Remember, the team is also w/o Tony Parker the rest of the way. That's 43.6 points per game (Leonard + Parker's season long averages) gone from the lineup w/o the leading and third-leading scorer on the team. With Golden State, the cliche of "you can't stop 'em, you can only hope to contain them" certainly applies, but people forget that this was largely an Under team in the regular season. They're still 50-39-1 Under in all games this year including 31-20 when off a game where they scored 115 or more points. 

San Antonio is now 12-3 Over in the playoffs. That's pretty shocking. The Memphis series (1st round) featured lots of low O/U lines, which was a big contributing factor, as has playing the two highest scoring teams from the reg season the L2 rounds. Going back to the end of the Houston series, they've now allowed an average of 110.2 points the L5 games. That's obviously well above their season-long average of giving up just 98.2 PPG here at home. Look for this one to stay Under the total. 10* Under Warriors/Spurs

8* Run Line Atlanta (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Braves +1.5. I had success w/ Atlanta in their last series, going 2-0 on or against them. I played them (on the RL) Friday when they sought revenge for a prior three-game sweep at the hands of the Nationals and they ended up winning that game "outright," 7-4. In position to "return the favor" (sweep) on Sunday, I then played AGAINST them as they fell 3-2. This is yet another series where they'll be looking to avenge an early season sweep. The Pirates won all three games against the Braves at PNC Park in early April, two of them coming by a one-run margin. But the Bucs not a good ballclub by any means, so I see Atlanta doing no worse than a one-run loss tonight.  

Pittsburgh is favored on the money line here for just one reason and that reason is Gerrit Cole is starting. In fairness, it's pretty criminal that he comes in w/ only a 4-5 team start record given his 2.84 ERA and 1.018 WHIP. He's made eight consecutive quality starts. But the issue for Cole has been a lack of run support; prior to his last outing (6-1 win over Washington), the offense had scored three runs or less for him five straight times. This Pittsburgh team is no longer to be feared as they actually check in w/ a worse run differential (-32) than Atlanta (-23) and the offensive numbers have been downright brutal. Only the Giants and Padres have scored fewer runs among NL teams and they are 29th in both team batting average and slugging as well.

The Braves are still adjusting to life in their new home park, but are now at least 8-10 here. Pittsburgh has an 8-15 record on the road this season, so again they're shaky with the minus in front of them on the ML. They're also 0-6 on Mondays this year, for whatever that's worth. Back to back home wins (over the Phillies) really doesn't impress me and yday's 1-0 win is a result that would equal a win for us w/ how we're playing this one. The Braves have still won 7 of 10 overall and will give them baseball to Mike Foltynewicz, who is off B2B quality starts himself. Going back further, we find Foltynewicz has allowed 3 ER or less in six of his past seven starts. He is more than capable of keeping this one close. 8* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5)

8* Run Line Kansas City (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Royals +1.5. Admittedly, it's not the greatest spot for KC here. They come off a doubleheader Sunday (split w/ Twins) and are facing a Yankees team that sports the American League's second best run differential. But the Yanks were on the verge of getting swept before yday's win in Tampa Bay and this is a revenge spot for Royals starter Jason Vargas, who goes against Michael Pineda a second straight time tonight. Last week, New York took two of three at Kansas City w/ Vargas really struggling in his outing. But despite that, he still has better YTD numbers compared to Pineda (surprised?) and I don't see him and his team doing worse than a one-run loss here. 

Last Wednesday at Kauffman Stadium vs. the Yanks, Vargas allowed six runs in just four innings of work, easily his worst outing of the season so far. In fact, he came into that start having allowed just one run in his previous 19 IP (15 inning scoreless streak)! In four different starts this year, Vargas has gone at least six innings w/o allowing a single earned run. The six runs allowed in last week's start more than doubled the number he'd allowed in his previous seven starts combined (5) yet his ERA still remains the second best among all AL starters. Yes, I'm well aware that the last start was a continuation of some poor career numbers against New York, but the team in Pinstripes comes into the series having dropped 7 of its last 11, so this is a good time to fade them.

The revenge angle in play here is also one of my favorites. It's hard to beat the same pitcher two times in a row. It's not like Pineda pitched all that great last Wednesday either; he allowed four runs and gave up two home runs. His career numbers against the Royals include a 4-5 record and 3.95 ERA. The triumvirate of Salvador Perez, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer are a combined 22 of 58 against him w/ four home runs. I'll call for the Royals, Vargas in particular, to do a lot better this go around. 8* Run Line Kansas City (+1.5)

10* Over Celtics/Cavs (8:35 ET): After cashing w/ the Under (barely!) in Game #2, I'm pivoting to the Over here in Game #3. I probably don't need to tell you that Cleveland absolutely bludgeoned Boston in a manner previously not thought possible in a Conference Finals. They led by 41 points at halftime (NBA record!) en route to a 130-86 victory that could have actually been MORE lopsided (Cavs' rested their starting five the entire fourth quarter). If that wasn't bad enough for the Celtics, now the series shifts to Cleveland and they will be w/o their best player (Isaiah Thomas) the rest of the way. The loss of Thomas as well as the result of the last game has caused a major readjustment from the linesmakers on both side and total here and I believe the latter to be less warranted. 

The Cavaliers are on a historic pace from three-point range in these playoffs, making nearly 15 per game! They shot 19 of 39 from behind the arc in Game 2 (48.7%), but it's on the inside where they are clearly having their way w/ the undersized Celtics. On two-point attempts in this series, they are shooting 57 of 96 for an unconscionable 59.3%. One might look at that number and logically conclude they are due to drop off, but who is Boston to stop them? In the playoffs, the Cavs are #1 in efficiency on the offensive end, averaging nearly 1.2 points per possession! At no point in the playoffs have they gone Under in B2B games. Friday marked the SIXTH time this season that they scored at least 130 pts in a game. The Over is a perfect 5-0 off the previous five. At home, this team averages 113.1 PPG. 

Even without Thomas, it is highly unlikely that Boston shoots any worse than it did in Game 2. They finished at just 37.2% overall including 8 of 27 from three-point range. Poor shooting even translated to the FT line where they missed 8 of 23 attempts. (By the way, the Cavs only went to the line 15 times in Game 2!). The 86 pts scored in Game 2 marked a playoff low, so even w/o Thomas, they should bounce back. They haven't been held below 100 pts in B2B games in the playoffs. To summarize, any decline here from the Cavs offensively will be offset by improvement on the Boston side. As specified above, the Cavs probably won't decline much anyway and let's not understate how scoring could increase in garbage time if this game were to get out of hand again. 10* Over Cavs/Celtics

8* Run Line Detroit (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Tigers +1.5. They snapped the Rangers' 10-game win streak yday (won 9-3) behind a dominant effort from Justin Verlander, who allowed just four hits over seven innings (did allow three runs). In reality, the game was over after the home half of the 1st inning when the Tigers connected on back to back to back solo HR's to take a 3-0 lead. They do have to face Yu Darvish tonight, but that creates an opportunity where the run line is now in play. Texas may have just won 10 in a row, but all that's gotten them to is two games above the proverbial Mendoza Line (.500) and I maintain that this is a regression team in 2017. Expect the home team to do no worse than a one-run loss Sunday night.

Starting here for Detroit is Matt Boyd, who admittedly has not pitched well of late. Well, to be specific, he's coming off a very rough outing, one where he allowed seven runs in just 2 1/3 innings against Baltimore. Prior to that, he'd tossed three consecutive quality starts and had not allowed more than 3 ER in any of his previous six starts. Keep in mind that the Rangers are still only 7-13 on the road w/ a paltry .205 team batting average. After being favored in the first two games of this series, this is a good value tonight on the Tigers. 

Darvish has been mostly dominant this season, his last start in particular. But he's also gotten to face both Philadelphia and San Diego, two terrible National League teams, in his home park the L2 starts. If there is an issue I see w/ Darvish, it's the question of durability. Just two years removed from Tommy John surgery, he's at 58 2/3 IP already in 2017 after throwing just 100 1/3 innings in '16. He's thrown at least 95 pitches in all but one start this year w/ a high of 125 (!). How long can he keep this pace up? The Tigers are a team that can put plenty of runs on the board (5.3 per game at home) and they project to be a lot more prolific as long as J.D. Martinez stays in the lineup. He's now homered in six of the eight games he's played this year, including yday. Something else to remember here is that the Texas bullpen has generally been terrible, especially on the road. As maligned as Detroit's pen has been this year, Rangers' relievers have a higher WHIP and the numbers on the road are far worse than the Tigers' at home. 8* Run Line Detroit (+1.5)

6* Pittsburgh (3:00 ET): Finally, the Penguins were able to get off to a good start in this series as they won Game 4 in Ottawa, 3-2. Sidney Crosby and what was the league's highest scoring offense in the regular season will always grab the headlines in Pittsburgh, but to me, the change between the pipes to Matt Murray was the impetus for the relatively easy Game 4 victory Friday night. Though the Senators did fight back to make it a one-goal game late in the third period, with Murray in goal, it was over as soon as the Pens went up 3-0 midway through the second. Just to reiterate what I've been saying about Ottawa throughout this postseason ... they are the ONLY playoff team that was outscored during the regular season. All but two playoff wins have come by a one-goal margin w/ six of the 10 wins coming in overtime. For the first time, look for the Pens to grab the series lead as they win Sunday afternoon. 

Let's talk more about Murray, shall we? Marc-Andre Fleury was pulled in Game 3 after a disastrous first period in which he allowed four goals on nine shots, paving the way for the goalie change. Murray has come in and since stopped 43 of the 46 shots he's faced. I think it's important to remember that Murray was the team's top netminder in the regular season. Here at home, the team was quite successful when he was the one between the pipes. They won 17 of his 22 home starts and a lot of that has to do w/ the goaltender's .923 save percentage here. Pittsburgh's one real issue, allowing too many shot attempts, seems to have actually rectified itself in this series. They've gone three straight games w/o allowing 30 shots, which is well under their season average.

Ottawa has yet to trail in a series this postseason, but they now find themselves playing in a venue where the home team has gone 35-13 SU this season. I am still waiting for the "other shoe" (skate?) to drop w/ goalie Craig Anderson, who in my opinion has been playing "over his head" this postseason. Back to Pittsburgh, the numbers indicate Murray is the better goaltender than Fleury and that they are - clearly - the better team on paper. I look for the defending champs to take one step closer to another Stanley Cup Finals. 6* Pittsburgh

6* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Unlike Cincinnati (whom the Cubs swept earlier this week), Milwaukee seems to have emerged as a worthy challenge for the throne in the National League Central. The Brew Crew currently lead the division w/ a 25-18 record and their +34 run differential would seem to indicate that record is no fluke. Battling through rain, they took Friday's series opener here at Wrigley, 6-3, for their fourth straight victory (Saturday rained out). But I like the Cubs to bounce back today w/ Jake Arrieta on the mound, even though the former Cy Young winner has NOT been his usual dominant self so far in 2017. But counterpart Chase Anderson has struggled recently as well and I still believe what I said during the Reds series (had Chicago every game!) and that's order is soon likely to be restored in the NL Central. 

Arrieta's start to the season was emblematic of how he's pitched throughout his tenure w/ the Cubs. He was 2-0 w/ a 2.89 ERA after three starts, but then in his last five, he's posted a 7.27 ERA and won just once. However, that one win did come here at the "Friendly Confines" as he held the Phillies to only three runs in 6 IP back on May 3rd. He's had some tough assignments recently, having to pitch at both Coors Field and Busch Stadium his L2 starts. Throughout his career, Arrieta has seemed to have the Brewers' number, posting a 3.00 ERA in 13 starts. That includes a win earlier this season where he limited them to three runs on three hits in seven innings of work. He also recorded a season high 10 K's in that game. 

Milwaukee might be a "better team" now than they were when they lost to Arrieta back in early April, but they dropped two of three to the Cubs in both previous series this year. It's been a long time since Anderson received a decision and a big reason for that is he's simply not going very deep into games. Only once all season has he lasted more than six innings. That was way back on April 12th. He has a 6.13 ERA and 1.977 WHIP his last three starts and last time out, the team ended up losing to lowly San Diego. I project a big day at the plate for the Cubs Sunday afternoon. 6* Chi Cubs

8* Washington (1:35 ET): When I took Atlanta (on the run line) Friday, I never thought they'd be in the position they now find themselves in coming into Sunday. That would be having a chance to "return the favor" against the Nationals for a three-game sweep suffered last month. Not only did the Braves end up winning for me Friday, 7-4, but they also beat Max Scherzer yday 5-2 thanks to hitting three home runs! Making these consecutive wins all the more unlikely is that they've coincided w/ the loss of the team's best hitter, Freddie Freeman, for the forseeable future. They've now hit SIX home runs in this series and will welcome Matt Adams (acquired in trade w/ St. Louis) into the lineup today. But I don't see this power surge continuing and beating Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg in consecutive days seems unlikely. Go with the Nats.

The Nats have now lost four in a row going back to the series in Pittsburgh. They've given up far too many runs during this time (28!), but that's where Strasburg comes in. Every start but one has been quality this year and he's generally owned Atlanta in his career (6-1, 2.33 ERA L8 starts). Earlier this year, Strasburg faced them on the road and allowed just two runs and six hits in seven innings of work. He also struck out a season-best 10 batters. Most importantly, he didn't give a HR there. For the year, he's allowed just four, which is what the Nats need right now as their staff has allowed NINE during this four-game losing streak.

Four-game losing streak aside, I still fully expect Washington to run away w/ the NL East this year. No other team in the division is currently above .500. Atlanta is actually their closest competition, but remains six games back. The Braves have struggled in their first year playing at SunTrust Park, giving up an average of 5.9 runs per game. Speaking of former Cardinals, today's starter Jaime Garcia is one. He's allowed four runs in B2B starts and has more walks (14) than strikeouts (11) his L3 starts, which is never a good sign. This will be just Garcia's second start at the Braves' new stadium, so no edge there. His first came against lowly San Diego, so there's little takeaway from that. The current losing skid is the Nats' longest of the season, but MLB's top offense in runs scored, batting average and slugging should get to Garcia. 8* Washington

10* Nashville (7:15 ET): The Predators outshot the Ducks in each of the first three games of this series and very nearly "stole one" in Game 4, rallying late to to score two late goals before ultimately losing in overtime. Still, I believe they've proven themselves to be the "better team" in the Western Conference Finals and thus they make for a great value at 'plus money' here in an all-important Game 5. Sure, I've made the case that Anaheim has a great home ice edge in previous write-ups, but those spots came against inferior opposition. Here, I feel they've met their match and it should be noted that the Preds have not lost B2B games this entire postseason.

Now there is an issue for Nashville and it's a big one as they are going to be w/o their leading scorer, Ryan Johansen, the rest of the way. This is a key loss, especially if the team's #2 center (Mike Fisher) also remains out. But they still have Pekka Rinne between the pipes and that might be all that matters. Rinne is having himself a sensational Stanley Cup Playoffs w/ a league best 1.66 goals against average and .940 save percentage. He was under his heaviest fire in Game 4, but still stopped 34 of 37 shots. 

Ever since storming back to take a 3-2 series lead against Edmonton in the last round (that was after dropping the first two games here at home), the Ducks have alternated wins and losses over the L6 games. Though goaltender John Gibson has posted a .935 save percentage in the series, I still do not trust him as much as I do Rinne in this situation. The Ducks have been badly outshot in their two losses in this series and four of their last five victories here in the playoffs have been by just one goal, three of those coming in overtime. They were very fortunate not to blow Game 4 in Nashville after Gibson let in two late third period goals, one in the final minute of regulation. Again, this is a great value on the better team. 10* Nashville

10* Arizona (10:10 ET): The Padres have been surprisingly competitive against the D'backs so far in 2017, taking three of the seven games that have been played thus far (all in April). But that record nor the price range listed by the oddsmakers here is indicative of the rather giant chasm that exists between these two NL West rivals. Especially when San Diego has arguably the worst starter in the entire National League going tonight. That would be Jered Weaver, who has been every bit as bad "as advertised." On a similar note, the Padres have sunk to the bottom of the MLB standings w/ a 15-28 record and have now been outscored by 72 runs (also a MLB worst) thus far. An additional edge for Arizona here (not they needed one) is that they had Thursday off while SD did not.

Following a three-game sweep of the Mets (at home), the D'backs are now 24-18 w/ a run differential of +34. Among National League teams, only the Dodgers and Nationals have outscored their opponents by a greater margin this season. Expect that differential to continue growing this weekend.  An offense that is already one of the most prolific in the sport (top 8 in runs scored, batting average, OBP and slugging) now gets to face the terrible Weaver, who is winless in eight starts (0-8 TSR) w/ a 6.05 ERA and 1.344 WHIP. He does come off - easily - his best start of the year as he held the White Sox to one run in six innings. But at home, he's been a disaster w/ a 9.69 ERA and 1.769 WHIP. His previous two outings here at Petco have seen him allow a total of 17 runs in just seven innings of work! He didn't fare too well pitching at Arizona earlier in the year either; allowing five runs in 5 2/3 IP. His signing in the offseason was much maligned and now we see why. His velocity continues to be way down and strikeout numbers are virtually non-existent.

The D'backs will counter here w/ Taijuan Walker, who in contrast has been an excellent addition to the rotation. Ironically enough, Walker's best start of 2017 to date came opposite Weaver back on April 27th. He went eight innings and allowed just two runs on four hits while striking out 11 batters. The Padres lineup managed all of five runs total in three straight losses to Milwaukee. They are dead last in both team batting average and OBP, not to mention 28th in runs scored and 26th in slugging. This series, particularly tonight's opener, shapes up as a complete mismatch. 10* Arizona

8* Under Cavs/Celtics (8:35 ET): I didn't play Game 1, but if I had, Under probably would have been the call. Thus, in retrospect, it was a wise pass. As for the side, Cleveland dominated the series opener so thoroughly that there is serious talk of a sweep here. Why shouldn't there be? Like "rival" Golden State, the Cavs have yet to lose this postseason and are now on a 12-0 playoff run dating back to LY's epic Finals comeback. After Wednesday's 117-104 win, LeBron James said about his team, "I don't even think we played that great tonight." The Celtics should be frightened by that comment as they never led at any point in Game 1 and trailed by as many as 28 on their home floor. Will they be "motivated" for Game 2? Certainly. But I still wouldn't consider the points w/ the home dog. Rather, I WILL step out w/ a play on the Under this time.

In some regards, James assertion that his team didn't "play that great" is correct. Kyrie Irving scored only 11 points and James, Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson were the only other players that finished w/ double figures (all w/ 20+). The team also shot "only" 35.5% from 3-pt range (averaging above 40% in playoffs) and would have been worse if not for a 6 for 9 performance from Love. But in this department, I believe the Cavs will continue to regress from the historic level they shot at in the first two rounds (averaged 14 3-pt FG's per game vs. Indiana/Toronto). Love probably won't shoot that well again, nor is Thompson likely to match his own offensive output from Gm 1. As phenomenal a player as LeBron James is (best ever?), I don't see him making 13 of 16 shots inside the paint again. 

Both teams actually wound up shooting well in Game 1. The Cavs finished at 48.1% while the Celtics were at 46.6%. Yet, looking back, it's a bit surprising the game did sneak Over the total. There were only 100 total pts scored at halftime and 61 of those came from the Cleveland side. It was a wild third quarter (36-31 in favor of Boston) that swung things dramatically for totals players. I should point out that the O/U line here exceeds the average total points per game output for both teams. Even in the playoffs, Cavs' games are averaging "just" 219.6 PPG. For the Celtics, their games have averaged 211.3 PPG in the playoffs. Isaiah Thomas was basically a non-factor in Gm 1 as Cavs HC Tye Lue threw a number of (all effective!) different looks at him. 8* Under Cavs/Celtics

8* Run Line Kansas City (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Royals +1.5. The theme of this three-pack will be revenge as in every team I'm taking has it for a prior sweep at the hands of tonight's opponent. In this instance, KC is actually 0-5 head to head this season w/ Minnesota having dropped a pair of games at home late last month. What makes this such an opportune time to take them though is that the Twins had to play a doubleheader against the Rockies. While Minny was able to salvage a split of the two games yday (won Game 2, 2-0). you have to wonder what kind of effect playing that much baseball in one day and then starting a new series w/o rest will have. My guess is the Royals will do no worse than a one-run loss here.

The Twins came up to bat 17 times yday, yet scored only three runs total. This is the continuation of a trend which has seen the offense held to four runs or less in six consecutive games. Only once in the L10 games have they finished w/ 10+ hits and they're batting only .219 this last week. This all has to be "music to the ears" of Royals starter Nate Karns, who already comes in w/ a 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP his last three starts (3-0 TSR). Karns has been racking up the strikeouts as well as he has 22 in his last two starts and a 29-4 KW rate during the three-game win streak. The Twins have NOT faced him this year. 

It hasn't been a great start to the season for the Royals, but they did win yday, thus avoiding what would have been a sweep by the Yankees. They've also won 7 of their last 10 overall. Minnesota, a 100+ loss team a year ago, got off to a surprisingly good start but seems primed to start heading in the opposite direction. They have a losing record at home so far and the rotation is not set up well in this series as Erwin Santana and Jose Berrios both went yday. Hector Santiago is on the mound tonight as his L3 starts have gone very different from Karns' as he has a 6.45 ERA and 1.565 WHIP. That's mainly due to a terrible last outing where he allowed six runs (three HR's) in just 2 2/3 IP at Cleveland. Santiago did beat the Royals in his first start of '17, but has a 3.82 ERA against them in 16 career starts. 8* Run Line Kansas City (+1.5)

10* Pittsburgh (8:05 ET): Have I conducted one of the great misreads on a team in recent memory? Coming into the Stanley Cup Playoffs, I felt that it would be a rather short stay for the Senators and why not? They were the ONLY playoff team to be outscored during the regular season. But, despite this key fact, they have already ousted both the Bruins and Rangers and now lead the defending Stanley Cup Champions two games to one here in the Eastern Conference Final. Game 3 on Wednesday, clearly, marked Ottawa's best performance of this entire postseason. They stormed out to a 4-0 lead in the first period and never had to look back (won 5-1). Other than the close out game of the Rangers series (when they scored an empty netter in the closing seconds to win 4-2), that was the 1st time the Sens won a game by more than one goal in the playoffs! I'm sticking to my guns here and siding with Pens.

If there is a legit problem that can be cited for Pittsburgh, it's that they've now been outshot in 11 of the past 12 games (29-26 in Game 3). Looking back to the regular season, they actually gave up the third most shots in the league (32.6 per game), but that didn't matter much as the led the league in scoring (3.4 goals/game) and were also #3 on the power play (23.1 percent). Now with their scoring "drying up," this has become an issue. Shockingly, they have been held to just one goal in every game of this series and have scored two or fewer in six straight games. This is without question the "coldest" we've seen this offense go all year. Again though, I'm willing to put my money on them breaking through. There's simply no way they'll play as poorly as they did in Game 3, the first period specifically.

The key question coming into Game 4 is who will be in goal for the Penguins? Marc-Andre Fleury was yanked after the disastrous first period in Game 3 and going to Matt Murray here wouldn't be a terrible idea given Fleury's now .891 save percentage on the road this season. The team has played a lot better on the road w/ Murray (16-9 SU) between the pipes as opposed to Fleury (8-15 SU). Either way though, I'm on the favorite here. Maybe I'm being too stubborn, but I refuse to believe a mediocre outfit like Ottawa can keep this run up for much longer. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Run Line Atlanta (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Braves +1.5. The theme of this three-pack will be revenge as in every team I'm taking has it for a prior three-game sweep by tonight's opponent. In this instance, Atlanta is seeking revenge for a three-game sweep that took place here at home last month. Admittedly, this shapes up as a pretty daunting series for them, even though they are again the home team. They will be w/o Freddie Freeman (their best hitter), not just for this series, but for the next eight weeks. Yesterday saw them get crushed 9-0 (here at home) by Toronto. But, prior to that they had won three in a row and five of six. I see them doing no worse than a one-run loss in tonight's series opener.

Washington isn't exactly in fine form either right now after B2B blowout losses at the hands of Pittsburgh. Run differential indicates that the Pirates have played worse than the Braves this season, so there is hope. The Nats allowed 10 runs themselves yday afternoon, most of that damage coming off four home runs. Tonight's starter Gio Gonzalez has pitched relatively well this year, but the number of pitches being thrown by Nationals' starters is a bit of a concern for me. Gonzalez has now thrown 100+ pitches in seven consecutive starts. This is a direct result of the Nats' disastrous bullpen, which has a 6.39 ERA and 1.630 WHIP on the road. That major weakness is something that can give Braves' fans some hope here as I'm banking on the home team being able to score in the late innings here.

Thus far, SunTrust Park hasn't been too kind to the home team. The Braves are just 6-9 in their new stadium, but they've also played the fewest number of home games in all of MLB, so it's still a small sample size. They do need to (obviously) decrease the number of runs they're allowing here (6.3 per game so far!). Charged with that task tonight is knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, who has generally been effective this year in limiting runs. Perhaps his best start came against these Nationals back on April 20th as he allowed just three runs on three hits in 7 IP. It was a game the Braves lost by one run (3-2), a result which would be just fine tonight given how we're playing the game. 8* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5)

8* Run Line Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rays +1.5. The theme of this three-pack will be revenge as in every team I'm taking has it for a prior three-game sweep by tonight's opponent. In this instance, the Yankees swept Tampa Bay back in early April. But that was in the Bronx. The Rays had previously taken two of three from their AL East rival here at Tropicana Field in the first series of 2017. They have been a superior team at home so far this season, going 12-10 here as opposed to 9-12 on the road. The Yanks have been formidable in most settings so far, racing out to the American League's 2nd best record. But I believe the Rays are better than their overall record and will do no worse than a one-run loss here.

While TB has been better at home this year, they come into tonight off a pair of impressive road wins over Cleveland. They have an edge over their opponents tonight in that they were off yday while the Yankees were wrapping up a series in Kansas City. After those two wins in Cleveland, the Rays have now outscored opponents over the course of the first 43 games. Tonight, they turn to a spot starter, but one that has come through for them in the past. That would be Erasmo Ramirez, who on April 20th came in and held the Tigers to just one run on two hits (solo HR) over five innings. He also struck out five in an easy 8-1 win for the team. On Sunday, he threw 28 pitches in relief and didn't allow a hit w/ four strikeouts in two innings. That was at Boston, another series that the Rays won.

The Yankees might be known as "The Bronx Bombers," but Tampa Bay's lineup has been as prolific as any when it comes to hitting home runs this year. They had 10 in the series vs. Cleveland, a franchise record for a three-game set. That ties them w/ the Yankees for the overall American League (59) this year. I bring this up b/c in all but two starts this season, NY starter Luis Severino has allowed a HR. One of the two he didn't came his last time out, but even then he lasted just 2 1/3 innings and had more walks than strikeouts. He also allowed three runs and it took him 44 pitches to get the first three outs. When he was mercifully pulled, he had already thrown 77 pitches while recording only seven outs. That's highly inefficient. At the plate, the Yanks have been completely "feast or famine" in a 3-5 stretch, getting held to three runs or less in half of those games. 8* Run Line Tampa Bay (+1.5)

8* Seattle (10:10 ET): This is an absolutely terrible spot for the White Sox and not just because they are having to hand the baseball to Dylan Covey, arguably the worst starter in all of MLB. Last night down in Los Angeles, the team held an early 4-0 lead, but then allowed the game's next 12 runs and ended up being swept by the Angels as a result. Coming off a game like that, they're in dire need of a quality start and the problem there is Covey is simply not the man for the job. Through six starts, he remains winless w/ a 7.98 ERA and 1.875 WHIP. Therefore, I'm willing to lay the juice w/ a relative unknown, Sam Gaviglio, who starts here for Seattle and is making just his second career big league appearance. 

The Mariners got a career-best outing from Christian Bergman last night (pitched into the 8th inning) and Jean Segura extended his hit streak to 16 games in a 4-0 shuout of the A's. Really, that series should have been a sweep for Seattle, but on Tuesday they allowed five runs in the top of the ninth (2 HR's) to lose 9-6. The bullpen is definitely a concern up here in the Pacific Northwest, but the good news is that the team is much better at home. They're 12-6 at Safeco Field this year including 6-1 in the -125 to -175 price range. Offensive production rises to roughly 5.5 runs per game at home. The team had been swept in Toronto prior to taking two of three from Oakland. I look for this weekend to continue the positive homestand as Chicago is averaging just 3.8 rpg on the road. 

Before getting swept by the Angels, the White Sox were actually tied for the fewest number of runs allowed in the American League. For the life of me, I can't understand how as this rotation is bad save for Jose Quintana. As long as the likes of Covey, Mike Pelfrey and Derek Holland continue getting regular work, expect the losses to start piling up on the South Side. In this spot, I project Covey to have as bad a start as any pitcher all weekend. Covey did rack up a career-best 9 K's his last time out, but that was against San Diego and he still allowed two HR's and gave up three runs in just 4 1/3 IP. Only one time in his six starts has Covey made it to the sixth inning and there he gave up six runs. This should be a good weekend for the home team, starting tonight. 8* Seattle

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): The Marlins are prime fade material right now. It's bad enough that they were just swept at home by Houston (I was on the Astros yday), getting outscored 22-4 in the process. But going back further reveals this club has dropped 17 of 21 overall including eight of the last nine games. Injuries have played a key role w/ three infielders currently on the disabled list. Due to the tragic passing of Jose Fernandez during the offseason, we knew this starting rotation would struggle (Wei-Yin Chen was their Opening Day starter!), but things have been even worse than expected thus far. Can't see the Fish turning things around this weekend in Chavez Ravine where the Dodgers have outscored visitors by an impressive 2.5 runs per game. 

Like Miami, the Dodgers went into yday afternoon facing the prospect of getting swept. Unlike Miami, they instead came through (w/ Clayton Kershaw on the hill), beating the Giants 6-1. To me, LA is a team much better than its record. They now own the NL's best run differential (+55) thanks in large part to the dominance exerted here at home. I was stunned to learn that they went just 1-6 against the Marlins last year, including a four-game sweep here at Dodger Stadium. Don't look for history to repeat itself this weekend however. Rather, I wouldn't be at all surprised if things went the other way and the Dodgers took all four games. 

Tonight's two starters have a combined record of 2-11. But the difference between Edinson Volquez and Hyun-Jin Ryu is the latter is backed by a far superior team. Ryu is coming off a "rocky" start, pardon the pun, at Coors Field last week. But in his two starts prior, he'd allowed just one run each time out. As for Volquez, the Marlins are 1-7 w/ him on the mound this year. While his first start back from a stint in the DL went well enough, it was against Atlanta and the team still lost. He doesn't figure to pitch nearly as well tonight considering Los Angeles is batting .277 at home. Don't be surprised if the Dodgers, who have allowed the fewest number of runs in all of baseball, go on a big run during this 10-game homestand. 8* LA Dodgers

6* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Prior to this series commencing, I predicted that "order would be restored" in the NL Central. Sure enough, the Cubs have won both games so far w/ me taking them each time. Whereas they pulled away late in Tuesday's opener, last night saw them jump out to an early 7-2 lead, which was more than enough for starter Kyle Hendricks. Troubling for the Reds is that the World Champs were able to score seven times on just six hits (did draw six walks) and that was while going 3 for 10 w/ RISP. Today, I'll call for the Cubs to complete the sweep behind Jon Lester, who is 3-1 in 10 career starts vs. the Reds w/ a 3.72 ERA. A 3-5 team start record is quite misleading for Lester as he has FIVE no-decisions and a 1.44 ERA and 0.960 WHIP here at Wrigley. 

Prior to the start of the season, if someone would have told you that the Reds would come into this mid-May series w/ a better record than the Cubs, you may have told them to have their head examined. Yet, shockingly, that was the case. But as alluded to above, order is beginning to get restored in this division. Cincy has now dropped five in a row, all on the road. As previously discussed, a "home-heavy" early part of the schedule certainly played a role in the club's surprisingly decent start. But, again, I point to the fact that most felt this would be one of the worst teams in all of baseball prior to the start of the season. Having to start the likes of Amir Garrett was indicative of that projection. Recalled from Triple-A for this game, Garrett has an unimpressive 7.16 ERA and 1.592 WHIP his L3 starts for the big league club. 

The Cubs offense has seemingly come alive in this series w/ 16 runs scored in the first two games. I expect that to continue this afternoon. In games where they face a lefty starter (Garrett is a southpaw), they are averaging a healthy 6.3 runs. Key for the Cubs has been drawing walks; they are #1 in all of MLB in that category right now. Despite a poor batting average, Kyle Schwarber has actually reached base in every game he has started since May 2nd. Remember, a walk is just as good as hit. Garrett has issued 11 free passes his L3 starts while also allowing 5 HR's (wind expected to be blowing out to right field this afternoon). Meanwhile, Lester has allowed four or fewer hits in all four home starts this season. The Cubs are now 32-11 head to head vs. the Reds since the start of the 2015 season. 6* Chi Cubs

10* Pittsburgh (8:05 ET): Ottawa got a "taste of its own medicine" in Game 2, losing by one goal. Eight of the team's nine postseason wins have come by that same margin and the only reason that tally isn't 9 for 9 is because they scored an empty-netter in the closing seconds of the final game of the Rangers series. Now the Eastern Conference Finals move "North of the Border." Still, I'm siding with Pittsburgh, who has been the better team all season long. Recall that the Senators were outscored over the course of the regular season. Even in making it this far in the playoffs, they are just dead even in goals scored vs. allowed.  Despite the injuries piling up along the blue line for the Penguins, I expect them to simply outscore the opposition here. 

Ottawa has not scored a PP goal since Game 1 of the Rangers series, a span of seven straight games. Do they break through here? Given they ranked only 23rd w/ the man advantage during the regular season, probably not. I also expect goaltender Craig Anderson to begin regressing sooner rather than later. While the return home might offer some semblance of hope, the team is just 3-8 SU this year after playing three or more consecutive road games. They have now been outshot in five of the last seven games too. 

Pittsburgh was the #1 offensive ranked team in the regular season, so it's only a matter of time before they get going. . Going back to the end of the Washington series, they've now been held to two goals or fewer in five consecutive games as well as six of the last seven. But Game 2 saw shots 29-23 in their favor, snapping a streak of 10 consecutive games getting outshot. A power play which has not scored in the last four games (0 for 11) will break through tonight if afforded the opportunity. To me, this is a great price on the vastly superior side. 10* Pittsburgh

10* Over Penguins/Senators (8:05 ET): Ottawa got a "taste of its own medicine" in Game 2, losing by one goal. Eight of the team's nine postseason wins have come by that same margin and the only reason that tally isn't 9 for 9 is because they scored an empty-netter in the closing seconds of the final game of the Rangers series. Now the Eastern Conference Finals move "North of the Border." As much I've worn my "disdain" for the Senators during the postseason run, the Over is clearly worth a look for Game 3. Pittsburgh, the highest scoring team in the league during the regular season, has been held to only two goals in the series. They are due to break through and sure enough there hasn't been a single time this season that they've stayed Under in four consecutive games. That trend holds true after tonight. 

After being held to one goal or less this season, the Pens are 9-5 Over. They're also 4-2 Over following a shutout victory. Going back to the end of the Washington series, they've now been held to two goals or fewer in five consecutive games as well as six of the last seven. That's very "un-Penguins like." A key factor though is that the team FINALLY outshot an opponent. Game 2 saw shots 29-23 in their favor, snapping a streak of 10 consecutive games getting outshot. It's only a matter of time before this offense breaks through. On the negative side, the number of shots Pittsburgh allows has been a slight issue for me all season and goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury tends to not play as well on the road (.893 save percentage). There's good value here playing the number at 5.0 considering the Pens are a near-perfect 3-0-1 Over on the road this season when that's the O/U line. 

For Ottawa, the Rangers' series ended w/ five or more total goals being scored in each of the last four games. Three times they allowed four goals. I'm still waiting for the "other shoe (skate?) to drop" for goaltender Craig Anderson, who has been playing above his head this postseason. As critical as I've been of the Sens (this is a team that was outscored during the regular season!), they do catch a break here in the sense that Pittsburgh is now down its top THREE defensemen w/ Justin Schultz suffering a shoulder injury in Game 2.  10* Over Penguins/Senators

8* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): I was on the Cubbies yday and sure enough they came through w/ a relatively easy 9-5 win. If you go back and read my analysis, you'll note that I started off w/ the assertion that this will be a series where "order is restored" in the National League Central. It was nothing short of jaw-dropping that the Reds came in w/ the better record given the respective ends of the spectrum these two teams were projected to be at, prior to the season starting. The Cubs are nowhere near as mediocre as their record shows while the Reds have been "playing over their heads" these first 38 games. At home, the Cubs show "who's boss" once again tonight.

Over the last few seasons, the Cubs have owned the Reds. They went 15-4 against them last season and are 31-11 head to head since the start of 2015. So far in '17, they've taken three of the four matchups. Today, we have Kyle Hendricks on the bump. After a somewhat shaky start to the year, he's seemingly regained LY's form. His ERA is 1.52 over the L4 starts even though he comes off a hard-luck loss at Colorado last week. In that last start, Hendricks allowed allowed all three runs (only two earned), but on just four hits and struck out seven. His last home start came against the powerful Yankees and saw him toss 5 1/3 shutout innings. He's allowed three runs or less in five of seven starts overall. Good news for him tonight is the Reds' offense has begun to "scuffle" w/ an average of just 3.4 runs scored over the last eight games. 

The regression that I project to take hold of Cincinnati has really already begun as they've dropped four in a row. A "home-heavy" schedule definitely played a role in the surprising start to the season. Entering today's play, no team has played fewer road games than have the Reds (16). Starter Scott Feldman pitched for the Cubs during the "rebuilding days," but there's a reason he's not a part of their rotation any longer. Sadly, he was signed by Cincy in the offseason to be their Opening Day starter. While he's off B2B quality starts, including a CG shutout, both came against the Giants' weak offense. His last start that didn't come against the Giants saw him allow seven runs in just four innings (against the Pirates). In my opinion, the money line here should be closer to -200. Surprisingly good value on the Cubs so far in this series. 8* Chi Cubs

8* Houston (12:10 ET): The Astros have dominated the first two games here in Miami, winning 7-2 and 12-2. The most impressive things about that is - despite being w/o the DH - the offense hasn't skipped a beat. In retrospect, last night's ML was a "steal" considering Dallas Keuchel was on the bump. But today's starter Lance McCullers is no slouch either and has emerged as one of the top #2's (in any rotation) in all of baseball. McCullers comes into Weds afternoon sporting a 2.98 ERA and 1.117 WHIP and the team has won six of his eight starts overall. Traditionally, the AL has owned Interleague Play through the years and these two clubs are emblematic of that. Houston is 31-13 vs. the National League the L3 seasons (4-0 in '17) while Miami is 15-34 L3 seasons (2-7 in '17). This should be an easy afternoon winner.

Houston has the best record in baseball right now at 28-12 (won last six series) and w/ a 1-2 punch like Keuchel and McCullers at the front end of the rotation, it's looking like they're going to run away w/ the AL West. McCullers hasn't allowed an earned run in 13 IP and comes in w/ a 0.93 ERA and 0.828 WHIP his L3 starts overall. Last time out, he went to Yankee Stadium and shut out a very prolific offense for six innings, allowing just four hits. He also finished w/ a 7-0 KW rate. A Miami offense which has scored only eight times total in the L4 games should be no match for him.

The Marlins are in a really bad way right now as they've dropped 16 of 20 overall and are 1-7 on the current home stand. They managed only four hits last night. Converted from a relief role, starter Jose Urena has shown some promise in two starts, but he alone cannot overcome the massive talent gap between these two teams. Remember that last week saw the Marlins lose THREE infielders for an extended period of time. When looking at Urena's numbers, also keep in mind he's gotten to face the Braves and Mets, two of the NL's worst offenses. Houston averages 5.9 rpg on the road and will be by far the best lineup Urena has faced so far in 2017. 8* Houston

8* LA Dodgers (10:15 ET): After taking last night's series opener, the Giants have now won four in a row, their longest win streak of 2017 so far. But their YTD run differential (-57) remains very poor (2nd worst overall) and they're still eight games below .500. What appears to be the biggest pitching mismatch on Tuesday's card is in favor of the Dodgers and being severely underrated by the oddsmakers. Los Angeles is actually #3 in all of MLB in run differential right now (+51), so what we have here is a team underperforming in terms of wins and losses against an opponent that's overperforming. Even w/ the win streak, the Giants have been the worst team in baseball over the L100 games. Before the current win streak, they were only 1-11 off a win this year.

Making his return to the bump tonight for the Dodgers is Rich Hill. He's spent the last month on the DL (blister), so he's made only two starts so far. Clearly, I'm anticipating a more joyous return from the DL than what the Dodgers got last night from Brandon McCarthy. I can base that on Hill's history against SF, which includes a 2.70 ERA in eight career starts. The Giants are batting just .224 so far against lefty starters. The offense is 28th in runs scored and on base percentage while ranking dead last in slugging. So this is an ideal spot for Hill to make his return. P.S. The Dodgers are allowing the fewest number of runs per game in all of baseball this year.

The Giants counter w/ Ty Blach, who is still in search of his first big league win. He's made four starts and three of them have been pretty promising. The one that wasn't (5.6 at Cincinnati) was on the road. But his low strikeout numbers are a concern. In 22 IP, he has only FIVE K's. That's almost unheard of. He's yet to register more than two strikeouts in any start! His first career start came against these Dodgers back on 4.25 and while he allowed only two runs in five innings, he came out a hard luck loser to Clayton Kershaw (no shame there). It should be pointed out though that his L3 starts have come against the Reds (2) and Padres, who should wind up being the two worst teams in the entire Senior Circuit. LA is 11-5 off a loss this year. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Under Spurs/Warriors (9:05 ET): Game 1, specifically the second half, probably couldn't have gone any worse for San Antonio. Not only did they blow a 25-pt lead and lose the game, 113-111, but they also lost superstar Kwahi Leonard for the forseeable future as well. This is probably the most points the Spurs have ever gotten in any game under HC Popovich and while they're 8-2 ATS as dogs this year, the task here w/o Leonard is every bit as difficult as the oddsmakers are projecting it to be. Therefore, we turn to the total. As was the case in the Houston series, expect the O/U lines to be high from San Antonio's perspective. The last time the Spurs were w/o Leonard (Game 6 vs. Rockets), I was on the Under and I'm playing Game 2 of this series the same way. 

Now, clearly, Spurs fans shouldn't expect tonight's game to go the same way the close out game of the Houston series did. There, the team held the high-scoring Rockets to a season-low 75 points in as easy a win as I've seen in these playoffs. The loss of Leonard clearly stings on the defensive end, but the Spurs were still able to hold the #2 team in offensive efficiency to a season-low in points Friday. So, I believe they're capable of still keeping the Warriors (#1 in off efficiency) in relative check, even w/o Leonard. Remember though that Tony Parker is also out for the year. That combined w/ the Leonard injury will hurt San Antonio more on the offensive end. Leonard was injured in the third quarter Sunday and the change in the team was striking. After scoring 62 pts in the first half, they scored only 49 in the second. Three teammates did end up scoring in double figures, but I seriously doubt that LaMarcus Aldridge, Manu Ginobili or Jonathan Simmons will match their Game 1 production tonight.

As I talked about in my Game 1 analysis, Golden State is quite underrated defensively. They finished the regular season #2 in defensive efficiency (trailing only the Spurs!) and have really taken things up a notch in the playoffs. They are the only team to be allowing fewer than one point per possession here in the postseason and the gap between them and the #3 team is larger than the gap between the #3 and #13 team. The Warriors are absolutely an Under team (52-38-1 this year) and won't have nearly as poor a 1st half defensively as they did in Game 1. Both teams ended up shooting the ball pretty well overall in Game 1, something you can't count on repeating itself. 10* Under Spurs/Warriors

6* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): I expect this to be the series where reality sets in for the Reds and for order to be restored in the National League Central. Shocking is the fact Cincinnati comes into this series w/ the better record of the two teams (by one game). They were of course projected to be the second worst team in all of baseball (ahead of only San Diego). The Cubs, coming off their first World Series win in over a century, were projected to be the best. But they are one game below .500 right now after losing B2B games to the first place Cardinals. Cincy just dropped three in a row though (at San Fran), so already that "reality" I spoke of has begun to set in. Love the Cubs here in the season opener behind John Lackey. 

Not only were the Cubs beaten Sunday, but for a second time in the last four games, they were shutout. Thankfully, they're already 2-0 this season after being blanked the previous game. This week offers up an opportunity for the offense to get back on track as it's a string of mediocre to bad pitchers they'll be facing, starting here w/ Bronson Arroyo. Don't be fooled for a second that the Reds have won Arroyo's last five starts. His ERA and WHIP are 5.95 and 1.321 respectively and both numbers get even worse on the road (7.71, 1.786). Low strikeout numbers don't impress me either. He has just 9 K's total his L3 starts and six time in seven outings, he's struck out four or fewer. He allowed two home runs (both solo shots) his last time out.

Arroyo's best start, ironically, did come against the Cubs back on 4.23. He outdueled Lackey, but that was at Great American Ballpark and I like revenge to prevail in this rematch. Lackey is off his finest showing of the season to date as he struck out 10 in seven scoreless innings of four-hit ball seven days ago. That was at Coors Field, mind you, important because it shows he can prevail in a hitter-friendly environment. It was just the second time in Coors Field history that a visiting pitcher came in and struck out 10+ hitters in seven innings or less. The wind is expected to be blowing out tonight at Wrigley, which probably favors the home team. Certainly, it won't favor Arroyo. Last year saw the Cubs go 16-3 head to head against the Reds and they should go back to dominating them here. 6* Chi Cubs

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): Very quietly, the White Sox are currently tied w/ Cleveland for the fewest number of runs allowed among American League teams. Therefore, you might conclude that their 17-18 record is a bit disappointing. But let's keep things in their proper perspective, shall we? The Pale Hose were not expected to be a contender in 2017 as the Chris Sale trade was a clear indicator that the future, not the present, is the focus here on the South Side. Quite simply, I do not envision the club continuing to be so stingy on that side of the ledger. Tonight, they venture into Anaheim where they have NOT fared well in recent years (1-6 since start of 2015). In a battle of teams that won Sunday, I'm siding with the home team who has actually been even stingier when it comes to runs allowed over the past week.

We've already started to see regression from the White Sox in terms of runs allowed. They allowed an average of 5.3 runs per game over the past week and having Mike Pelfrey on the bump this evening isn't likely to help reverse the trend. Pelfrey, who grades out as one of the AL's weaker starters, has yet to go deeper than 5 1/3 innings in any of his four starts. He's winless (1-3 TSR) w/ a 5.21 ERA and 1.421 WHIP. What plagued him w/ Minnesota continues to plague him in a new uniform and that's a simple inability to strike batters out. Incredibly, he has more walks (7) than K's (6) in those four starts this year. Needless to say, having only six strikeouts in four starts is really bad. So is simply having Pelfrey in your rotation. Since 2011, he's just 22-53 overall w/ four seasons of 10 or more losses. 

Angels starter Jesse Chavez isn't going to exactly set the world on fire, but he's a better option than Pelfrey. Chavez has faced the White Sox numerous times in his career and owns a 3.07 ERA against them (14 appearances). The converted reliever has said he "prefers starting" and he's allowed 3 ER or less in every start thus far. The Angels are coming off a split w/ another AL Central club, Detroit, over the weekend. We know that Los Angeles will have the best player on the field Monday and sure enough Mike Trout is in fine form right now, having homered in three consecutive games. Despite missing six games, Trout already has 11 HR's on the year. The Angels are a lot better at home (12-8) than they are on the road (7-13). 8* LA Angels

10* Washington (8:05 ET): Admittedly, I'm bucking a lot of history here. Washington is 0-8 SU/ATS its last nine visits to Boston. The home team has won ALL 10 head to head meetings between these two teams this season. And home teams have historically dominated Game 7's in the NBA playoffs, winning 23 of the previous 30 straight up, though Utah did win in LA in Round 1 this year. As a whole, this series has been very even w/ the Wiz outscoring the Celtics by just a single point. Therefore, my natural inclination is to take the points. Throw in the fact that the Wiz raced out to double digit leads in each of the first two games here in Boston and one could make the arguement that they've been the better team. Actually, they've led by double digits in four of the six games so far. Take the points.

Game 6 was Washington's turn to come from behind as they erased a five-point fourth quarter deficit and won on a John Wall three-pointer in the closing seconds. Now, that's by no means a large come back, so again, it somewhat plays into the fact that the Wizards have been the better team in this series. There is likely to be a ton of focus here on a "clock error," at the end of Game 6, which cost the Celtics some time to win the game. But that's all "water under the bridge now." Somewhat shocking is the fact that home teams were 0-10 straight up in these playoffs when facing elimination prior to the Washington win Friday night! So that's a trend that clearly now favors the Wizards. Being able to win a game while shooting 5 of 24 from three-point range was huge for the Wiz. You have to think they'll shoot better here, even on the road. 

Overall, Washington has not shot well in B2B games. They're just over 40% overall from the field and are an awful 12 of 53 from three-point range. Again, you have to think those numbers are going to improve here. That means trouble for Boston, who is actually worse defensively at home to begin with. Keys for Washington defensively are to force the Celtics into driving (just 7 of 31 L3 games, including an awful 1 of 13 from Isaiah Thomas) and focus on Al Horford, not Marcus Smart. Smart has been a borderline disaster in this series, shooting just 32 percent from the floor and below 50 percent from the free throw line. Yes, home court advantage is powerful in these Game 7's. But I simply do not believe the Celtics are any better than the Wizards, which makes the points look attractive. 10* Washington

8* Over Wizards/Celtics (8:05 ET): Due to what happened in Game 6 (92-91 final) and the conventional wisdom of Unders cashing at a higher rate in Game 7's (roughly 60 percent since '07), the oddsmakers have dipped the O/U line considerably here from the final installment of Wizards-Celtics. But the dip in the O/U line seems like an overadjustment to me. At it's "low point" (has been bet up a bit overnight), it was a full EIGHT points lower than the Game 5 O/U line here in Boston, a contest which went well Over the total. In fact, all three games in Boston during the series have gone Over due in no small part to the home team averaging roughly 125 points per game. Washington is obviously worse off defensively on the road (allows 110.2 PPG), but did you know so is Boston at home (105.7 PPG allowed compared to 104.5 PPG on the road). Take the Over.

Overall, Washington has not shot well in the last two games. They're just over 40% overall from the floor, including an awful 12 of 53 from three-point range. The fact they were able to win Game 6 despite shooting 5 of 24 from behind the arc was huge, not just for the fact they stayed alive, but even on the road they're now likely to shoot much better tonight. Heck, the Wiz won despite missing eight of 21 FT attempts in Game 6. I expect across the board shooting improvement from them here. Boston didn't exactly shoot the lights out either Friday night. They were only 40.5% overall including 11 of 35 from three-point range. In the series' three home games, they've shot better than 50% from the floor every time. So, it should be improved shooting on both sides tonight. 

The dip in the O/U line here is also significant for another reason. Both teams' season-long total PPG averages now exceed it. Wizards games average 216.3 PPG and that number jumps to 218.1 on the road where the Over is 31-16. They've also gone Over 15 of the last 20 times facing a team that averages at least 106 PPG. Boston averages 107.8 PPG overall and 110.0 PPG at home. Celtics' home games average 215.7 PPG for the year and thus the Over is 25-18. These are two good free throw shooting teams, so the struggles we've seen from the losing side each of the L2 games should dissipate. Washington is 29-12 Over L3 seasons when playing w/ two days of rest. 8* Over Wizards/Celtics

6* Pittsburgh (8:05 ET): It sure appeared that the heavily favored Penguins came out "flat" for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Perhaps it has something to do with the "voodoo" Ottawa has been able to launch on its opponents this posteason as a team that was outscored during the regular season is now just three wins away from the Stanley Cup Finals! The Senators have certainly "shown me" in the playoffs, but I'm by no means set to jump on board the bandwagon. The 2-1 Game 1 victory marked the EIGHTH win by one goal in the playoffs, six of those coming in overtime! The one time they managed to win by more than one goal (close out game vs. Rangers), they scored an empty net goal in the final seconds to win 4-2. I remain steadfast that Pittsburgh is the far superior team here. 

Ottawa did outshoot Pittsburgh in Game 1, but I thought the Pens had better scoring opportunities throughout the game. It is troubling to see the Pens having been outshot in 10 consecutive games, but this is a team that won throughout the regular season despite allowing the fourth most shot attempts per game. They are 34-13 SU on home ice this season and that's after losing two straight times at the Igloo (also lost Game 6 vs. Washington). There was a time late in the regular season when they did drop three consecutive home games, but other than that it never happened at any other point in the regular season. 

I think what happened in Game 1 was a direct result of Pittsburgh coming off a long and arduous series with Washington. I'd expect a bounce back offensively from the highest scoring team in the league in Game 2 after being held to just a single goal Saturday. In goal, Marc Andre Fleury has a 17-8 SU record at home w/ a .931 save percentage. I still trust him more than I do Craig Anderson. As we saw w/ Nashville last night, it's very hard to win B2B games on the road. Pittsburgh did it to Washington in the last round, but I do not see them suffering the same fate here. 6* Pittsburgh

8* Under Astros/Marlins (7:10 ET): Traditionally, the American League dominated the National League in Interleague Play and these two clubs are emblematic of that. The Astros, who have the best record in baseball right now (26-12), are 29-13 against the Senior Circuit the L3 seasons including a pair of wins over lowly Atlanta last week. Miami, a team that has dropped 14 of 18, is 15-32 in IL play the L3 seasons (2-5 in 2017). So, on paper, this certainly seems to shape up as an "ideal" matchup for the road team. But, because we're talking about a NL park, the 'Stros lose the DH from their lineup and this tends to be a pitcher's park anyway. I'm on the Under here.

Marlins starter Dan Straily also might just be able to give his team a chance in this one. Don't be fooled by the 3-4 TSR as his WHIP is 1.079 and at home he's been even better (this plays into this pitcher-friendly environment I already mentioned). In four home starts, Straily has a 2.38 ERA and 0.927 WHIP. He's been extremely unfortunate at times this year, particularly B2B starts vs. Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay where he allowed only seven hits in 10 1/3 IP, but also managed to give up seven runs. He was even sharper his last time out (here at home), holding St. Louis to just one run and three hits in 7 IP. (Of course, the bullpen blew the lead). Then there was a start earlier in the year in San Diego where Straily struck out 14 batters, walked none and allowed only two runs on four hits in 7 IP. I think we'll be in good hands w/ him tonight against the DH-less Astros. 

In the final two games of this series, Miami will have to deal w/ the front end of the Houston rotation and face both Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers. So going up against righty Joe Musgrove tonight clearly represents their best shot at victory in the next three games. Only problem there is Musgrove pitched well his last time out, holding Atlanta to two runs and four hits in 6 IP. This will be an easier start than usual for him as he gets to face the pitcher (loss of DH works both ways for the AL team!). The Astros split a high-scoring day-night doubleheader Sunday at Yankee Stadium and lets not discount the fatigue factor here. Miami, on the other hand, is off a pair of 3-1 games (one win, one loss). AL opponents are batting just .212 in this park (seven games) this season. 8* Under Astros/Marlins

8* Washington (7:05 ET): The last time we checked in w/ the NL East leading Nationals, it was for an Over play in Monday's series opener at Baltimore. It cashed, but overall that series didn't go that well for the club as they dropped two of three. Mother nature has since intervened with the scheduling postponing two of the last three scheduled games including Friday here at home vs. the Phillies. That's forced the division rivals to play a doubleheader Sunday and regardless of what happens in the 1st game, I like the Nats to take the nightcap w/ Max Scherzer on the hill. Through seven starts this year, Scherzer has a 0.884 WHIP and he's always had Philly's number. In 12 career starts against them, he's 8-1 w/ a 2.19 ERA. Game 2 should be an easy one for the home team.

Last night was the first time Washington had played in three days and they won when Bryce Harper (who just signed a record-setting contract) hit a walkoff home run in the bottom of the ninth. That capped a six-run rally for the Nats, who initially trailed 4-0 after five innings. You have to think that's a blown opportunity for the underdog Phillies, who don't figure to get off to a similar start against Scherzer. I would definiitely call Scherzer's 4-3 team start record "misleading" given the WHIP that I already mentioned and the fact he's allowed 3 ER or less in six of his seven starts overall. He's been racking up a ton of strikeouts as well w/ a total of 22 over his L2 starts. Scherzer has already beaten the Phils once this year, his first start of '17, holding them to two runs and four hits in 6 2/3 IP. 

Scherzer beat Vincent Velasquez that day (4.7) and those two will face off again Sunday. Velasquez is off a bad showing against these Nationals last week where he allowed six runs in seven innings. So, he's 0-2 against them already this year, having given up 10 runs in 11 IP. Not a good sign, clearly. In his career, he's pitched 33 1/3 innings vs. the Nats and allowed 30 hits. So they've always given him fits. It certainly doesn't help his case that they come into Sunday ranked 1st in MLB in runs scored, team batting average, on base percentage and slugging. Overall, Philly has lost eight of its last nine games and the downward trajectory continues tonight. 8* Washington

10* Under Spurs/Warriors (3:30 ET): While I'm sure it will (hopefully!) be mentioned during the telecast, something that will not get played up enough in this series is the fact that the Spurs and Warriors were 1-2 in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Here in the playoffs, Golden State has taken their defense to a whole new level as they are the ONLY team to be allowing less than one point per possession. In fact, the gap between them and the #3 team in defensive efficiency in these playoffs (Boston) is wider than the gap between #3 and #14! Their last five games, which includes the sweep of Utah and close out game against Portland, has seen them allow an average of just 97.4 points per game on 41.2% shooting. Take the Under in Game 1.

San Antonio is of course coming off a completely dominant victory in their close out game against Houston. They won Game 6 of that series (on the road!), 114-75. It goes w/o saying that was easily the fewest # of points scored in a game by Houston this year. What's really impressive though is that the Spurs had previously held Houston to a season-low 92 points in Game 3 as well. All told, they held the Rockets to 96 pts or less three times in the series, which is virtually unheard of given that Houston was held below 100 pts only a handful of times throughout the course of the regular season. The good news is the Kwahi Leonard will play here and that's bad news for whichever Golden State player he defends. Memphis and Houston's respective leading scorers, Mike Conley and James Harden, shot just 34% from the floor when Leonard was their primary defender. 

Going hand and hand w/ the Warriors being a top defensive team this year is the fact they were also an Under team as well. Only four teams have gone Under in a higher percentage of their games this season. On the other side, as was the case against Houston, the Spurs' ability to defend the three-point line here (best in the league during reg season) will be key. In their two regular season losses to the Spurs, Golden State shot just 12 of 50 from beyond the arc. San Antonio allows just 99 PPG this year, so from their perspective, the game by game O/U lines will be high in this series, similar to the Houston series. 10* Under Spurs/Warriors

10* NY Mets (2:10 ET): Things are not stellar right now in Queens. You have the ongoing Matt Harvey saga + the Mets have now lost three in a row. Things have not gone well here in Milwaukee w/ losses of 7-4 and 11-4 the L2 days, but this afternoon marks the 1st time where the oddsmakers are expecting them to come through. That obviously has a lot to do w/ who's pitching. Jacob deGrom gets the baseball Sunday and while he had one so-so outing so far against Atlanta (Mets still won 16-5!), other than that, he's been pretty much "lights out." One could not say the same for Milwaukee starter Wily Peralta, who carries a 5.30 ERA and 1.514 WHIP into this game. He's been even worse here at Miller Park and he's failed to last more than 5 1/3 innings in any of his L4 starts. 

One thing I really like w/ deGrom is - save for that Atlanta start - he's been posting some really high strikeout totals of late. He's fanned 10 or more batters in four of the previous five starts, including 11 his last time out, a 4-3 Mets' win over the Giants. All told, he has 51 K's in his last 30 2/3 IP. Past results for him against Milwaukee have been mostly positive w/ a 2.32 ERA in five starts (3-1). Now, the Brewers' offense has been on fire of late, but note they were held to only one run (on five hits) their last time in this situation, Thursday, when they were attempting to sweep the Red Sox here at home. And that came against a far less accomplished starter (Eduardo Rodriguez) than deGrom. Something else to pay attention to is that it seems as if the Brew Crew are fortunate to be #2 in MLB in runs scored. I say that due to the fact they are just 14th and 15th respectively in team batting average and on base percentage. Cluster luck!

Prior to yday, the Mets had given up 10+ runs in a game only one other time this year. It was that disastrous 23-5 loss to Washington on April 30th and they were able to come right back and win the next day. I see the same thing playing out here. It certainly helps facing Peralta, who has been just dreadful over the course of his last four starts (7.71 ERA). Even worse for him is the fact that the three bad starts have all been here at Miller Park. Though off to a surprisingly good 20-17 start overall, the Brew Crew are only 11-11 at home. The Mets' offense has scored four or more runs in 14 of its previous 15 ballgames! So they should (theoretically) "get to" Peralta today. 10* NY Mets

8* Cleveland (1:10 ET): Coming into the year, the Indians (defending AL Champs) were expected to run away with the Central Division. While I still see things playing out that way, it's been an admittedly pedestrian start. Recent play, in particular, has been quite disappointing. After only managing to split six road games w/ Toronto and KC (AL's two worst teams), the Tribe returned home, only to drop a pair of games against AL Central rival Minnesota. They've scored only one run in this series as offense continues to be a problem. But I don't think it will be today as they've had the number of Twins' starter Hector Santiago in the past. In 15 career appearances vs. Cleveland (10 starts), Santiago has a 4.77 ERA against Cleveland. Home team avoids the sweep here. 

Minnesota is of course trying to pay Cleveland back for what happened in the Twin Cities last month. The Tribe swept the Twins at Target Field 4.17-4.20 and that played a big role in me fading them in opener of this series (always love the revenge angle when a team was swept in previous series vs. opponent). That and Minnesota had Ervin Santana pitching. Santana shut out the Indians and then the less heralded Jorge Barrios was able to do the same yday as Cleveland has managed only six hits this entire series! The lone run scored by the Indians in this series came via a wild pitch. But there's just too much talent up and down this lineup for this lack of production to continue. Santiago has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season, but he's had control issues w/ 12 walks total in his L3 starts. 

Looking for a silver linining, Cleveland's pitching has been great in this series. They've held Minnesota to just five runs in the two games. The game's only run scored Friday was a Miguel Sano HR. The Twins have just 11 hits total in the series and in the five games vs. Cleveland this year, they've scored only 12 runs, never more than four in any one game. Cleveland starts Trevor Bauer today and while he's certainly struggled at times, he did beat Minnesota back on 4.20, giving up just two runs on three hits in 6 2/3 IP. It's - by far - Bauer's best start of the season to date. Previous to today, The Indians have twice lost three in a row. Both times, they came back to win the next game. In fact, over the L3 seasons, they are 17-5 when on a losing streak of three games or more. 8* Cleveland

8* Jorge Masvidal (11:00 ET): This is a Welterweight bout (170 lbs), scheduled for three rounds. Both fighters find themselves among the top five contenders for champion Tyron Woodley's belt, so the winner could likely find himself in line for a title shot. Demian Maia is 9-2 since dropping down to 170 lbs, winning his last six fights (three by sub, three by decision). But this is a bad matchup for him against Masvidal, who is on a three-fight win streak himself. The last two wins for Masvidal were quick ones, both by TKO. After a 1st round victory over Jake Ellenberger last December, he stopped Donald Cerrone just one minute into Round 2 back in January. The key to this fight, in my opinion, is Masvidal's takedown defense. That will be enough to earn him the win here, whether it be by stoppage or decision. Take Masvidal.

Styles make fights and like I said earlier Masvidal is a bad matchup for the takedown artist Maia. Maia, quite frankly, is a pretty one-dimensional fighter. He does that one thing very well, but Masvidal's takedown defense is going to limit Maia's ability to exploit his one matchup advantage here. Standing, Masvidal looks to have a clear edge in this fight as he's the far more accomplished striker. Dating back to his time fighting under the Strikeforce banner, Masvidal has successfully defended takedowns at a 79% rate, which is huge. If Maia is unable to take Masvidal down, I can seem him getting flustered, which has been his downfall in the past. 

Don't let yourself get fooled by Masvidal's record (11 losses) either. All three losses he's suffered since 2013 have come via split decision. He has not been stopped since 2009! In fact, he's only been stopped three times in his entire career, one of those coming all the way back in '05. This is a very underrated fighter in my opinion and despite him moving up from the lightweight division and Maia being a former middleweight, I don't see that being an issue. Odds have "flipped" on this fight since the opening line was released indicating the market is with me on this one. 8* Jorge Masvidal

6* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): No matter the price, I'm likely going to be on the Peguins the whole way in this year's Eastern Conference Finals. Really, the oddsmakers can't make the money line high enough as far as I'm concerned. Ottawa is very lucky to be here as all but one of their eight playoff wins have come by one goal and that one was the last one, which saw them score on an empty net in the closing seconds. Five of those wins have come in OT. This was the ONLY playoff team to be outscored during the regular season and they were outshot in all but one game in the series w/ the Rangers. Now you could point to the fact that the Pens were outshot in all seven games by the Capitals, but the fact is that the defending Stanley Cup Champs are clearly the more well-rounded team here. 

Unlike the series against Washington, Pittsburgh won't be dealing with an opponent that can hypothetically match them in scoring. Ottawa finished the regular season just 22nd in goals scored, so them scoring four or more goals three times in the Rangers series came as a total shock. But they are still a far cry from Pittsburgh, who led the league in scoring in the regular season. Ottawa did beat the Pens twice in the regular season, but both wins were at home. In their lone visit here to the Steel City, they conceded eight goals (back in December) and that was their fourth straight loss here. The previous season's lone visit saw them give up six goals. 

Any chance the Senators have in this series hinges on two players, Erik Karlsson and Craig Anderson. Forget about just defensemen, the former has played about as well as any individual in these playoffs so far w/ 13 points in 12 games. But, it's been revealed that he's playing w/ two hairline fractures in his foot and thus you have to wonder how long he can keep up the pace. Anderson has a .927 save percentage in the postseason, but it dipped after the Rangers series and I still give the Penguins the edge between the pipes. Marc Andre-Fleury had a .921 save percentage vs. Washington. This is somewhat uncharted waters for the Senators getting this far while for the Penguins, it's their second year in a row. Off a shutout win, the Pens are 4-1 this season. 6* Pittsburgh

10* Kansas City (7:15 ET): The Royals are a team you won't find me endorsing too often this season, but I like the spot here. They beat Baltimore Friday, 3-2, and now face a significantly weaker pitcher in Chris Tillman. Yes, I know Tillman was the O's ace last year as well as #3 overall (in MLB) at the pay window in units earned (+13.7). But after starting 2017 on the DL, he's due to regress. While he did throw five shutout innings in his first start back (Sunday), Tillman also walked three batters. I see him getting outpitched here by KC's Nate Karns, whose two starts so far at Kauffman Stadium have resulted in a 0.75 ERA and 0.667 WHIP. The Royals bullpen has also been much better at home this year as has the entire team (as opposed to 5-16 in road games).

Buck Showalter seems to be "doing it again" as he has the Orioles in first place in the AL East w/ a 22-12 record. Only Houston has a better overall record. But as has been the case before, this club is by no means as dominant as its record might seem to indicate. They've outscored opponents by only 12 runs all year and are 13-3 at home (just 9-9 on the road). Their record is largely a byproduct of an AL-best 8-3 record in one-run games. But we saw them lose one last night, so I'm figuring now is an opportune time to bet against them.Their hitters have also been striking out a lot recently as in 34 times the L3 games alone. They plated only two runs yday and never led. 

For KC, Karns is coming off B2B outstanding outings. Last time out, he struck out a career-high 10 batters, so the # of strikeouts by the O's (reference above) certainly could be a factor tonight. Karns also allowed just two runs in 6 1/3 IP as the Royals beat the Rays 7-3 Monday. Before that, he tossed six shutout innings of one-hit ball against the White Sox while striking out seven. So he's definitely in fine form coming into tonight. Speaking of fine form, Eric Hosmer is leading the Royals' offense right now w/ a .403 batting average the L16 games. Admittedly, this lineup has struggled much of this season, but they'd scored six or more runs in their last three wins prior to Friday and it was a big confidence builder, I think, for them to win a low-scoring game like last night. KC is not as bad as they looked early one while Baltimore is not as good. 10* Kansas City

10* Atlanta (7:10 ET): I'm still willing to throw my support behind Braves' hurler Julio Teheran despite his disappointing start to 2017. Coming off his very unlucky '16 (10-20 TSR despite 3.21 ERA & 1.053 WHIP), I tabbed Teheran as one of two pitcher likely to have a bounce back campaign this year (Chris Archer being the other). So far, that really hasn't panned out though as his TSR is 2-5 w/ a 4.69 ERA and 1.513 WHIP. Sadly, the Braves are just 3-12 since the start of last season in Teheran starts where he does NOT factor into the decision. That all being said, Atlanta won here yday and Teheran's trials and tribulations are nothing compared to what's going on in Miami right now. The Marlins, decimated by injuries, have lost four in a row and 13 of their last 16 games.

The Marlins' rotation has been in a state of flux due to multiple injuries. In the wake of the tragic passing of Jose Fernandez, we knew this group was likely to stuggle. But the early returns have been worse than expected. De facto #1 starter Wei-Yin Chen is still on the DL. Tonight's starter Edinson Volquez, himself off a stint on the DL, has offered little in the way of relief w/ a winless record in six starts (1-5 TSR). Volquez has lasted six innings only once. His 56.9 strike rate ranks near the very bottom of the league among qualifed pitchers and he's issuing 6.9 walks per nine innings thus far, more than double last year's rate when he was w/ the Royals. In the three starts before going on the DL, Volquez produced an unsightly 2.308 WHIP. 

The Marlins are also currently working with a real "skeleton crew" on the right side of their infield. Third baseman Martin Prado as well as two shortstops, Miguel Rojas and Adeiny Hechavarria, were all lost to injury over the past week and will miss extended time. Teheran, like Volquez, has a high BB rate. But he should enjoy pitching tonight in Miami as he has 0.93 ERA in three road starts. Having just snapped their own six-game losing skid, Atlanta should have a nice weekend overall here and scoring eight runs yday was a nice start. Meanwhile, the Marlins are just in a terrible way right now and I don't see them solving Teheran, who is long overdue for better results. 10* Atlanta

8* San Francisco (10:15 ET): The Giants can't seem to get out of their own way as they dropped last night's series opener to the Reds, 3-2. Twice they blew a one-run lead before giving up the GW run in the top of the eighth. They actually out hit the Reds as well (11-7). Frustrating result and I'm not just saying that b/c they were my 10* Game of the Week. The loss drops them to 0-4 this season vs. Cincinnati (swept last weekend), who I am firmly committed to NOT believing in. Yes, the Reds are now 19-15, but this was a club projected for the bottom of the MLB standings prior to the start of the year. Fortunately, tonight we have Johnny Cueto on the bump for San Fran, in an "immediate revenge" spot against the pitcher who beat him his last time out, Scott Feldman.

You might wonder why I'm so excited about playing Cueto against Feldman here given the latter threw a CG shutout (four-hitter) when they faced off on Sunday. Well, I consider that performance from Feldman to be nothing more than a "mirage" as in his previous start, he'd lasted only four innings and gave up seven runs. This also isn't Great American Ballpark. As I said in yday's analysis, the Reds have benefited from a home-heavy schedule to start the year, one that has seen them play 22 of their first 33 games at home. That's the highest percentage of home games for any team in baseball. On the other hand, the Giants played 21 of their first 35 games on the road. That's certainly not the only reason they've struggled, but it's definitely a contributing factor.

Cueto had more strikeouts than Feldman on Sunday (10 to 5) and is certainly the more accomplished pitcher here. His only two "bad" starts thus far have come at Colorado and Arizona, two of the more hitter-friendly parks in the league. His two home starts were both quality and more importantly for our purposes, wins as well. The Reds are Cueto's former team remember, so pride is in play here as he certainly doesn't want to lose to them twice in a row. These "immediate revenge" (same two pitchers facing off in B2B starts) are among my favorite spots in baseball handicapping as it's really hard to beat the same pitcher twice in a row. Five of the Giants' 12 wins this year have come w/ Cueto on the hill. 8* San Francisco

8* Anaheim (9:05 ET): Clearly, this is a less than ideal way for the Ducks to begin this series. They're just two days removed from winning a tough, seven-game series over the Oilers while Nashville has been off for the last four days. But, as I said prior to wins here in Games 5 and 7 of the last series, Anaheim is a really good home team. In fact, they had the fewest regulation losses at home of any team in the Western Conference, a major reason why they own the home ice edge for this Western Conference Final and won the Pacific Division. Thus, I can't help but feel there's some substantial value here on the Ducks. Road underdogs w/ this much time off are actually just 28-47 SU since '05 in the NHL playoffs. 

Sure enough, home ice advantage was the key in all three regular season matchups between the Preds and Ducks. Two of the games were lopsided while the Ducks won the rubber match in a shootout. Both teams were just 17-24 SU in the regular season on the road, tied for the worst such mark among all playoff teams. I think a real key to this game (and series) is Anaheim's edge down the middle of the ice w/ Ryan Getzlaf, who has 15 pts in 11 playoff games. Also, no team left in the playoffs has won a higher percentage of faceoffs than the Ducks. While it's true they had to go the full seven games to eliminate Edmonton, remember they also swept Calgary in the first round. So, in total, they've played just two more games than Nashville this postseason.

Clearly, the headliner for the Predators right now is goaltender Pekka Rinne, who posted a .951 save percentage in the first two series. But might he be bound to regress? I'd answer that in the affirmitive, considering no goaltender in the L20 years has posted a save percentage that high through three rounds. Only four have topped .940. Remember, Anaheim was #3 in the regular season in goals allowed and #4 in penalty killing. The PK had some atypical struggles against the younger, faster Oilers, but I see that unit getting back on track in this series. One final note is that we absolutely should not disregard the "revenge factor" here as the Ducks certainly remember being ousted from LY's playoffs by Nashville, in seven games. 8* Anaheim

8* Washington (8:05 ET): The first quarter has typically belonged to the Wizards in this series, but that certainly was NOT the case in Game 5 at Boston as they were outscored 33-21 and never really recovered (lost 123-101). But all that did was square away the two teams' scoring in the series. The 22-pt win doubled the Celtics' margin of victory from Games 1 and 2 combined while the Wizards won Games 3 and 4 (here at home) by a total of 44 pts. The home team has now won all nine H2H meetings this season, so right there is a natural lean to Washington. Throw in the fact that they held a double digit lead in each of the first four games of the series and the fact they're still dead even with Boston in point differential despite being down a game, I'm laying the short number here.

Save for Game 5, the pattern of Washington beating Boston by a larger margin than the other way around goes back to the regular season. In the Celtics' four trips to the Nation's Capital this season, they have lost by margins of 25, 15, 27 and 19! That's an average of 21.5 points per game! While the Wiz sport a losing record on the road, they are 35-11 SU at home and average 110.7 PPG. More importantly, they also allow about 5.5 PPG fewer at home compared to the road. Boston, who is only 8-15 SU as a 'dog this year, scores roughly four points per game less on the road. Since '05, NBA playoff teams off a double digit road loss and returning home cover at a 56% ATS rate.

Again, it bears mentioning that Washington held a double digit lead in each of the first four games of this series. They'd outscored Boston by 22 points over those four games, so the series being "even" at that point was certainly misleading. I know the Celtics then dominated Game 5, but I see no way they repeat their 53% shooting (65% in 1st quarter!) or go 16 of 33 on three-point attempts again. Washington shot just 38.5% overall in Game 5 (series worst), including 7 of 29 from three-point range. This is a classic "zig zag" game. Look for this series to go to a Game 7. 8* Washington

8* Run Line Minnesota (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Twins +1.5. Any disadvantage Minnesota might have here by virtue of Cleveland being off yday is mitigated by two factors. One, they themselves got an "extra" off day when Tuesday's game at Chicago was rained out. Two, they have Ervin Santana on the bump. Save for his last start, Santana has been spectacular this year. And even after allowing six runs to Boston on Sunday, his ERA and WHIP are still 1.72 and 0.787, respectively. That tells you right there just how good the first six starts were (more on those in a bit!). Minnesota also has revenge here as they got swept at home by Cleveland last month. With Santana pitching, I see them doing no worse than a one-run loss tonight. 

Santana did pitch against Cleveland in last month's series. He allowed only one run and four hits in six innings, leaving w/ a 2-1 lead. Sadly, the bullpen failed to protect that lead and the end result was a 6-2 loss. But, clearly, not Santana's fault. Outside of the last start, that's the only other time the Twins have lost this year w/ Santana pitching. He was 6 for 6 in terms of quality starts heading into Sunday, allowing 1 or 0 ER every time out. All told, he allowed just three runs in 41 IP, which is obviously phenomenal. It's not like Cleveland has been hitting well of late either; they are batting a collective .227 the L7 games and that's even after scoring a total of 13 runs in their previous two games. Before that, they'd been held to three runs or fewer seven consecutive times. So this is an ideal matchup for Santana, who is only allowing 4.02 hits per nine innings already. Opponents are batting just .135 against him, an AL best. 

It's not just Santana, the entire Twins team is surprising. They got me last night, beating the White Sox 7-6, and have now won 9 of 13. An offense led by Miguel Sano has scored a total of 20 runs in the L3 games alone and that means trouble for embattled Indians starter Josh Tomlin, who comes in w/ an unsightly 9.94 ERA and 2.052 WHIP at home. Cleveland is coming off a disappointing 4-5 road trip here and only managed a split against the two worst teams in the American League, Kansas City and Toronto. Their lineup has been hit by injuries and there's the possibility as many as three regulars will miss tonight's game. 8* Run Line Minnesota (+1.5)

10* San Francisco (10:15 ET): Hey - the Giants actually won a game! They came from behind (scored four runs in the 9th) to beat the Mets yday afternoon and put to bed a five-game losing streak. Coming off that emotional high, tonight is a GREAT spot to take them as they return home seeking revenge against a Reds club that swept them in embarrassing fashion last weekend. In Cincy, San Fran was outscored 31-5, which was just a stunning result. Including what happened in that series, the Reds have surprised by winning 8 of their last 10 games. But let's not forget the preseason projection for this team as they were forecasted to be the 2nd worst team in baseball, ahead of only San Diego. I know that the Giants, ironically enough, currently own the worst record in baseball. But, this is a clear cut case of being able to "buy low & sell high" at the same time. 

A variety of issues, injuries among them, have contributed to this shockingly poor start by the Giants. But a win like the one they had yday certainly can have a carryover effect. Being back at home should help too. Of their 35 games played so far, only 14 have taken place here at AT&T Park. For the Reds, it's been just the opposite. Out of their 33 games played, only 11 have taken place on the road. The home vs. road effect should also have a significant bearing on tonight's starting pitching matchup. While still winless, San Fran's Ty Blach pitched well both times he's started here at home. His ERA and WHIP are 1.50 and 0.833 respectively as he's allowed only two runs and seven hits in 12 IP. Meanwhile, Cincinnati's Bronson Arroyo has worked twice on the road and the results have been very ugly (11.25 ERA, 2.25 WHIP). Both starts were in St. Louis and he allowed 10 runs in just eight innings of work. 

Now Blach was hammered last week at Great American Ballpark, giving up 10 runs in just three innings. But, as I just mentioned, he's been a different pitcher at home. Aside from the two big outputs vs. SF last weekend, the Reds' offense has been held to five runs or fewer in the other eight of its last 10 games. Arroyo was by no means dominant in his start against the Giants last weekend as he allowed three runs in just 5 1/3. I feel that this weekend is just "screaming" for the Giants to get back on track. 10* San Francisco

10* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): In the interest of full disclosure, I was set to make this play Wednesday, but Mother Nature would not allow it. With the same starting pitchers scheduled for Thursday, I'm sticking w/ it. The White Sox took an early 2-0 lead in Tuesday's series opener, but from there it was all downhill as the Twins scored the game's final seven runs. It was two big innings from the visitors, a three-run fourth and a four-run sixth. That result has to be especially disappointing for Chicago as Minnesota was w/o both Brian Dozier (injured) and Miguel Sano (suspended). Now losers of four in a row, the White Sox will try and get back on track here w/ lefty Derek Holland on the mound. He seems to be a more reliable option compared to Tuesday's starter Mike Pelfrey and the Twins are going with Phil Hughes, whose 5-1 team start record is quite misleading given that he has a 4.32 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. I'm on the home team here.

The White Sox, admittedly, have had their issues offensively. They finished w/ only four hits in the series opener, but I feel it's likely they get things going here at Hughes' expense. Hughes is a low strikeout pitcher (just 21 K's) and he's allowed at least four runs in half of his six starts this year. He's coming off a season-high in innings pitched (6 2/3) his last time out, so don't be surprised to see him regress tonight. The Twins, despite having a winning record, have actually been outscored this year and prior to this series had gotten their "lunch handed to them" in a pair of ugly losses to the Red Sox (outscored 28-7). Behind Hughes, I really don't trust a Minnesota 'pen that has a 4.79 ERA and 1.43 WHIP for the year.

Holland already faced Hughes once this year and was outdueled in a 3-1 loss. But save for one bad start at Yankee Stadium, Holland has been the more consistent of tonight's two starting pitchers. He's allowed 2 ER or less in five of his six starts and in those five he's gone at least six innings while allowing five or fewer hits! Last time out, he held the Royals to just two runs (one earned) on three hits over 6 2/3 IP, a game the White Sox won 8-3. Holland struck out seven in the win, which is one-third of the number of K's Hughes has for the year. Over his L3 starts, Holland has produced a 1.89 ERA and 0.895 WHIP. The White Sox have won all three times. 10* Chi White Sox

10* Under Spurs/Rockets (8:05 ET):  My Under play for Game 5 was foiled by overtime, a cruel twist following a second half in which the teams combined for just 84 second half points and only 31 in the fourth quarter. Even crueler was the fact that it looked as if the Under still might cash despite the extra five minutes of play, only for 10 of the 15 OT points to come in the game's final 90 seconds. The Spurs were #1 in defensive efficiency during the regular season and have held Houston to 101 pts or less in regulation three of the past four games. The fact that the Over has gone 11-2 their previous 13 games is a bit misleading as individual game totals in the Memphis series were set low. As previously noted here, the O/U lines in this series are high from the San Antonio perspective. I'm sticking w/ the Under again. 

Houston is of course one of the top offensive teams in the league. They are the reason for the high totals in this series, but as previously noted, they've been held well below their scoring average in three of the last four games. Neither team shot well in Game 5, making the final result all the more painful for me. It also had to be painful for the Rockets to hold the Spurs to 40% shooting and still lose. One thing we haven't seen a ton of in this series is free throw shooting, at least compared to both teams' season average for number of attempts. That's a good thing when betting the Under. In the L2 games, Houston is just 21 of 31 from the charity stripe while San Antonio is an even worse 24 of 41.

Obviously, the key storyline for Game 6 is going to be the health of Kwahi Leonard, who injured his ankle in the last game and was on the bench down the stretch. Somewhat shockingly, his teammates picked up the slack, scoring the final 19 pts of the game. I wouldn't look for that to happen again though and let's not forget the Spurs are already w/o Tony Parker as well. Leonard is on track to play here, but figures to be hobbled somewhat. Considering the team scored just 24 pts in the 4Q and OT of Game 5, that doesn't bode well. Now you could argue that Leonard not being 100% might also have an adverse effect on the Spurs at the defensive end. While it is true that Leonard has been an ace at defending James Harden, his teammates were also up to the challenge down the stretch Tuesday. The Rockets scored only 22 total pts in the 4Q & OT of Game 5. No overtime hopefully and Game 6 stays Under the total. 10* Under Spurs/Rockets

10* Anaheim (10:05 ET): While history shows that there's little in the way of a discernable home ice advantage for Game 7's, you have to believe the Ducks are happy to be back in Anaheim following an ugly 7-1 loss at Edmonton in Game 6. The Ducks won the Pacific Division due in large part to suffering the fewest number of home losses in regulation in the Western Conference. They were 29-8-4 here at the Pond, then won both times over Calgary in Rd 1. This series, surprisingly, started out w/ them losing BOTH games at home. But then they took both games up in Edmonton and Game 5 here. The ugly result in Game 6 has severely undervalued them for this winner take all affair as I give them a far greater chance of advancing than the oddsmakers apparently.

Shockingly, the Ducks have lost a Game 7 at home each of the last four seasons. That may also have something to do w/ this generous line. For the series, they have badly outshot the Oilers, mainly due to a incredible 64-38 edge here in Game 5. Now, they did need a miraculous comeback to win that game, but given the shot disparity, one could argue that they badly outplayed their opponent. Shots were dead even (35-35) in Game 6, meaning they're still has not been a game in the series where Edmonton had the edge. Cam Talbot came up big Sunday, but I'm not sure how much I trust him in this situation. Meanwhile, Anaheim is 15-4 this season after allowing 4+ goals in their previous game. It was one disastrous period (1st) that sunk them in Game 6. It's next to impossible to rally back from a five-goal deficit. 

What we saw on Sunday was also highly irregular as the Ducks were 3rd in the league in goals allowed during the regular season and 4th in goals allowed. Goaltender John Gibson should be in line for a bounce back performance tonight given a .932 save percentage at home. For some reason, Gibson has been pretty awful when the Ducks are on the PK, but his save percentage when at even strength in these playoffs is .932 (sound familiar?). That's better than Talbot's. Also, Anaheim is 14-6 this season after being held to one goal or less the previous game. While the Ducks don't have the greatest Game 7 history, they at least have experience in this situation, something that the young Oilers cannot claim. 10* Anaheim

10* Under Oilers/Ducks (10:05 ET): Edmonton exploded for 7 goals in its Game 6 victory, five of those coming in the first period. It marked the fourth consecutive game in the series to go Over, all of them seeing at least seven total goals scored. But let us not forget two of the games went into overtime, one of them (Game 5) requiring a miraculous Anaheim rally late as they scored three goals in the final five minutes of regulation. A barrage similar to that, or the one we saw early on from Edmonton in Game 6, just seems unlikely here w/ the stakes so high. Take the Under.

What we saw on Sunday was also highly irregular because the Ducks were 3rd in the league in goals allowed during the regular season and 4th in goals allowed. Goaltender John Gibson should be in line for a bounce back performance tonight given a .932 save percentage at home. For some reason, Gibson has been pretty awful when the Ducks are on the PK, but his save percentage when at even strength in these playoffs is .932 (sound familiar?). The Under is 11-5 in Ducks' home games this season when the total is 5.5. I really implore making sure you get locked in at 5.5 here, a key number when betting Unders in NHL. 

Edmonton's Cam Talbot has the better overall save percentage in the series, but that's mostly due to his 60-save effort in Game 5. Still, I can't see the Oilers doing anything close to what they did in Game 6. The Under is 16-9 for them this season coming off a win by two or more goals and 15-7 if they scored 4+ goals in their previous game. The Oilers have scored seven power play goals in the series, which is a lot, but they also got a number of chances (7!) in Game 6 (converted twice). I look for the Ducks to do a better job at staying out of the box tonight, which in turn should result in better play down at their end of the ice. The stakes are too high here to expect an abundance of goals. 10* Under Oilers/Ducks

10* Washington (8:05 ET): The home team has yet to lose in this series, so after four games we're all squared away at two games apiece. That may give the impression that it's been an even battle so far between the Wizards and Celtics, but a deeper investigation reveals that is simply not the case. In fact, the top seed should feel very fortunate not to be eliminated already. Boston has not just trailed by double digits in every game in this series, but has allowed Washington to go on individual runs of 16-0, 22-0 and 26-0 at various points. I believe that the Wiz are the better team here and if you look at the individual game lines, it would appear the oddsmakers agree w/ that assertion. Yes, they're 0-7 SU/ATS their last seven visits to Boston, but they scored 80 first quarter points in Games 1 and 2 and led at the half both times. That 0-7 streak seems due to end. If not now, when?

After blowing those double digit leads (17 in Gm 1, 13 in Gm 2) in Boston, Washington easily could have folded their tent. But instead they blew the Celtics out in both home games. Game 3, like Games 1 and 2, saw them get off to a blistering start. This time, however, they were able to maintain the advantage and won 116-89. Game 4 marked the first time in the series that the Wizards did NOT score at least 38 pts in the 1Q and the Celtics actually led early in the second half. But, thanks to an insane 26-0 run, the Wizards put together another huge quarter (42 in 3Q) and won 121-102. Washington has now scored at least 111 pts in every game in ths series. Remember that the loss in Game 2 came in overtime. I can't overstate enough how the Wiz have mostly outplayed the Celtics over the course of the first four games. If not for Isaiah Thomas, Boston might very well be sitting at home right now.

Let's also not forget that Boston dropped Games 1 and 2 at home in their 1st rd series against a pretty pedestrian Bulls team. That series swung on a key injury to Chicago PG Rajon Rondo. So that's two series where you can say the Celtics have had the "luck of the Irish." In each of the first three games, Washington scored at least 63 pts by halftime. They won Game 4 w/out Kelly Oubre, Jr and now get him back from a one-game suspension. What does the extra day off between games mean? Well, historically speaking, good things for the Wizards. They are 9-5 ATS, 10-4 SU when playing w/ exactly two days' rest. Meanwhile, Boston is just 5-11 ATS, 6-10 SU. Yes, the home team has won all eight times these teams have met this year. But the games here in Boston have been much closer. Take the points. 10* Washington

6* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Kansas City has taken the first two of this three-game set here at Tropicana Field, but the Rays' Chris Archer should put a stop to that Weds night. Archer was actually the biggest money-losing starter in all of basball in 2016 (-15.6 units), but I wisely called for a bounce back this year. The season started out well for Archer as the team won each of his first four starts. But they've since lost the last three. Only one of those losses can be pinned on Archer, however, and I see him having little difficulty shutting down what has been MLB's worst offense over the first month-plus. The Rays were sloppy in a 7-3 loss Monday night, committing four errors and striking out 16 times. Then last night saw them blow a four-run lead and lose in extra innings. Clean up the mistakes and Archer will take care of the rest! 

It's very unusual to see KC score seven runs in B2B games. As I already mentioned, they have been - by far - the worst offensive team in baseball this year. They are not only dead last in runs scored, but they're at least 25 runs behind every other team but one (Giants). Furthermore, they rank last in team batting average (.215) and OBP (.278). They're 29th in slugging (.340). Coming into this series, they weren't even batting .200 on the road and had just two wins away from Kauffman Stadium. They did sweep one series last month (at home vs. the Angels), but other than that, they've not won three straight games at any other point this season. So this should be another strong outing from Archer, who struck out 11 batters his last time out. 

Tampa raced out to an early 7-3 lead early last night, but could not score over the final six innings (game went 12). In years past, we became accustomed to seeing that kind of dominance from the Royals' pen, but not this year as that group is just 3-8. The Rays, who have outscored their opponents this year, "should have" a better record but have blown 13 leads. The good news for tonight is that w/ the KC bullpen overworked last night, the pressure will be on starter Jason Hammel, who has a 5.53 ERA and 1.699 WHIP in six starts (1-5 TSR). He has not won on the road since last July. The Rays have lost three in a row, but are a perfect 2-0 this year when on that long of a skid. 6* Tampa Bay

10* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): I think it's fair to say that both of these AL Central teams have been a bit surprising through the first 30 games. Minnesota lost 103 games in 2016 (only team in MLB w/ 100+ losses), but has started out this season by playing slightly better than .500 ball (15-14). The White Sox are .500 "on the nose," but that's only after being swept in Baltimore over the weekend. Run differential says the White Sox have been the better team thus far as they've outscored opponents (+9) while the Twins have not (-8). Thus I can't really understand while the road team would even be a slight favorite here as it's not as if they come into this three-game set playing well. At home, they were outscored 28-7 the previous two games by Boston.

Admittedly, Chicago's starter in this game, Mike Pelfrey, isn't exactly awe-inspiring. This will be just his 4th start of 2017, but at least he's gotten progressively better over the course of the previous three. He went a season-best 5 1/3 innings his last time out and allowed just three runs. His strikeout numbers need to improve, which was always the problem when he pitched for Minnesota. Fortunately for him, the Twins have struck out 10 or more times in three of the past four ballgames. The White Sox should be highly motivated to be back at home tonight following a 10-game road trip. So far, they're outscoring visitors by 1.6 rpg here at Guaranteed Rate Field (not making that name up!). 

Ironically, the Twins will be starting a former member of the White Sox here. That would be Hector Santiago, who has actually pitched pretty well this year, but has little to show for it. Case in point, when he faced his former team last month, he tossed seven shutout innings of six-hit ball, yet Minnesota still lost the game, 3-1. Overall, these teams have split six head to head matchups this year, so again it's looking like a great value on the home side. Rarely do the Twins ever close as a road favorite. While they may get Brian Dozier back in the lineup tonight, he's only hitting .229 for the year. Dozier could not come close to replacing the potential lost production from Miguel Sano, who may get suspended for this game due to his role in a previous bench clearing brawl. The White Sox have gone 8-3 against lefties so far in 2017 and I like them to take tonight's series opener. 10* Chi White Sox