10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): Playing without Zion Williamson (out indefinitely with a foot injury), the Pelicans are off to an 0-3 SU start. But despite a horrid shooting night on Saturday, they still managed to cover the spread here in Minnesota. They shot 34.8% from the field and were 9 of 40 from three-point range in the 96-89 loss to the T’wolves. Not to mention they turned the ball over a franchise record 30 times! But New Orleans was a 7.5-point dog in that one, so they left with the cash. I anticipate the same thing will happen tonight. Take the points.

While it was just a half-point cover on Saturday, you’ve got to figure the Pelicans are going to shoot the ball better this evening. Devonte Graham and Nickeil Alexander-Walker were the primary offenders, combining to shoot a horrendous 3 of 23 from three-point range. You’ve got to figure that duo will be much better tonight AND the number of turnovers will be cut down significantly. In the Pelicans’ previous game, Graham and Alexander-Walker were 9 of 17 from behind the arc. 

Because they are still winless, expect New Orleans to come out “hungry” on Monday. They did not get off to a good start to Saturday’s game, which was the second night of a back to back for them. Minnesota is 2-0 SU with the other win coming against a rebuilding Houston team. It’s fairly shocking to see the T’wolves favored in the first three games of the season. I don’t think they’re a very good basketball team and the defensive numbers we’ve seen so far will not be sustained. 10* New Orleans

8* Over Pistons/Hawks (7:35 ET): Atlanta’s first two opponents combined to shoot just 37.4% overall and 28.2% from three. You’ve got to figure that won’t hold up. Also, they only scored 95 points themselves in a surprising loss to Cleveland on Saturday night. A return home should lead to noticeable uptick in scoring. In the first game, the Hawks scored 113 points and easily defeated the Dallas Mavericks. They are big favorites here over the Pistons and I expect this game to go well Over the total. 

Detroit has played two low-scoring games thus far, both against Chicago. Neither time were the Pistons able to break 90 points. That’s just sad. The first game vs. the Bulls saw them shoot 40% and score 88 points. A visit to the Windy City saw declines down to 38.6% shooting and 82 points. Through two games, the Pistons are a horrible 19.6% from three-point range. These numbers can only improve and I think they will tonight - substantially - as the Hawks were already set to regress defensively from the first two games.

With these teams combining to go 4-0 Under thus far, it’s no shock that the total is low. But it’s too low. Atlanta averaged 113.7 PPG at home last season. They were right at that number in the season opener vs. Dallas. If they were to again finish near that average (very reasonable assumption) then all we’d need is 100 points from the Pistons. Again, that sounds reasonable. Trae Young did not shoot well against Cleveland nor the last time he faced Detroit. That’s about to change. The Over is 10-1 the L11 meetings between these teams in Atlanta. 8* Over Pistons/Hawks

8* Under Colts/49ers (8:20 ET): I’d like to think that, coming off a bye, San Francisco will be ready to roll here. But this team has not been good as a favorite under HC Kyle Shanahan, going just 8-19-2 ATS including 2-7 SU the last nine times they’ve been laying three points or more. Even with QB Jimmy Garoppolo set to make his return, there are still a litany of injuries this team is dealing with. It’s not like Garoppolo was all that effective before getting injured anyway. He completed only 62% of his passes the L2 starts with two interceptions. 

Meanwhile, it was an 0-3 start for Indianapolis this season and things were looking bleak. But the Colts have turned it around a bit by winning two of the last three games and going 3-0 ATS. Honestly, they probably feel like they should also be 3-0 SU over that stretch as they blew a big lead against Baltimore on MNF and lost that one in OT. Thanks to playing the Texans last week, it was an easy bounce back and the defense did its job, holding Houston to only three points. 

The last time the 49ers beat the Colts was 2001. Obviously, you can count and know that was 20 years ago. But considering that was the game that inspired Jim Mora’s infamous “PLAYOFFS” rant, it might as well have been a lifetime ago. Who knows if either of these teams can get back in the playoff race in 2021. But what I do know is that Sunday night should be a low-scoring game. 8* Under Colts/49ers

8* Orlando (7:05 ET): A young Magic team that doesn’t have a single starter over the age of 23 has gotten off to an 0-2 start. Both losses have been blowouts. First, they fell by 26 to the Spurs. Then it was by 25 to the team they’ll face again Sunday, the Knicks. Against San Antonio, Orlando was at least competitive for most of the first half. The same cannot be said for Friday’s game with the Knicks where many fans in their own building were cheering for the road team. But I expect this one to be closer. Take the points. 

New York set a team record for most made threes in a game with 24 on Friday. That is not going to be replicated. The Knicks went to double overtime in their first game, winning a wild one, 138-134 over Boston. So they are 2-0 for the first time since 2012. Do I expect them to win this game? Yes. But covering a double digit spread is a different matter. The line closed at -8 for Friday’s game with the Magic. 

Now the linesmakers obviously had to account for the change in home court advantage as well as the final margin from Friday. But this looks like a classic overreaction. Orlando isn’t going to have a great year, but they will be desperate to avoid a third straight double digit loss to open the season. The Knicks are a team I expect to regress a bit this year as they can’t count on holding opponents to the lowest 3PT FG% in the league again like they did last season. 8* Orlando

10* Over Bears/Bucs (4:25 ET): If Justin Fields thought going against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers was tough, wait until he gets a hold of Tom Brady and the Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers. This should be Fields' toughest matchup as a pro. I just can’t see the Bears being able to trade points with the Bucs. But I do think they can score enough to help send this one Over the total. The Bears’ last five games have all gone Under. A matchup with a top three scoring offense should change that. Take the Over. 

The Bucs have not faced a good offense since suffering their only loss, 34-24 to the Rams. Since that loss, they’ve beaten New England, Miami and Philadelphia. Yet only that New England game, which was a highly emotional affair (Brady’s return to Foxboro), saw less than 50 total points scored. Other than at New England, Tampa Bay games have averaged more than 60 PPG this season! All three of their home games this season have gone Over. 

Brady will not have to worry about one of Chicago’s top pass rushers (Robert Quinn) as he is on the COVID list. The Bucs have scored at least 30 points in every home game so far and twice gone over 40. Obviously, I’m expecting a lot of points from them today. But I also expect their defense to give up a surprising number of yards in the passing game to Fields. Before going up against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles last Thursday, the Bucs had allowed at least 262 yards passing to every opponent. If the Bears get to 20, which they should, then this is an easy Over. 10* Over Bears/Bucs

10* Atletico Madrid (3:00 ET): On the same matchday as “El Clasico” (Real Madrid vs. Barcelona) comes my top La Liga bet for the month. It too involves a pair of sides near the top of the table. Real Sociedad is in fact your surprise table leaders right now with 20 points. However, it should be pointed out that Sociedad has played one more match than most of the teams currently chasing. That included LY’s La Liga champs, Atletico Madrid, who can pull level with a win here. I don’t think anyone really believes that Sociedad is the top team in the Spanish top flight. It is their time to drop a match. 

Now, you’re probably thinking to yourself “what about Thursday?” About Thursday, I went with Sociedad in the Europa League fixture against Sturm Graz. They won 1-0, extending their unbeaten run across all competitions to 11 straight. But Sturm Graz is obviously not the same caliber of opponent that Atletico is. Furthermore, Sociedad is not winning by very large margins. They’ve failed to score more than once each of their five competitions. They will have to rely on their defense Sunday, but I don’t think Sociedad will score here. 

Atletico’s return to European football midweek was not as successful as Sociedad’s. Last year’s La Liga champs lost their Champions League fixture to Liverpool 3-2. It was a frustrating defeat as Atletico had battled back from an early 0-2 hold to draw even. But then Antonie Griezmann was sent off with a red card and Liverpool took the full three points with a penalty in the 78th minute. But Atletico remains unbeaten at home in domestic action this season. They actually haven’t played a La Liga match since beating Barca 2-0 on October 2nd. So they are better rested. They should be hungrier and move to the top of the table (on goal differential) after this one. 10* Atletico Madrid

9* Over Bengals/Ravens (1:00 ET): I can understand why the “sharp money” seems to like the Under in this matchup. It’s a divisional game, which means the teams are familiar with one another. Also a Cincinnati team that is 5-0 Under its last five games has been held to just 19 points in its last three meetings with Baltimore. However, this is a much better Bengals team in 2021. They come in at 4-2 SU and just put up a season-high 34 points last. While that was against the lowly Lions, there’s been only one game all year when Cincy failed to score at least 22 points. I’m on the Over. 

The Ravens scored 34 points last week in what was the most impressive wins I’ve seen from anybody this NFL season. They crushed the red-hot Chargers, holding Justin Herbert to just six points. But this Baltimore defense has been kind of “Jekyll and Hyde.” While there have been three times they’ve held the opponent to 17 points or less (Lions, Broncos, Chargers), there have also been three times they’ve given up 25+ points (Raiders, Chiefs, Colts). Where there’s no mystery is on the offensive side of the ball at home. In three home games, the Ravens have averaged 33.7 PPG and topped 30 every time. 

I already mentioned how the previous three meetings between these teams have seen the Bengals not score many points. The same cannot be said about the Ravens. They’ve averaged 38 PPG in those three matchups! Here at home (see above), I have full confidence in them scoring a bunch of points on Sunday. Cincinnati should be able to stick with them though as the Ravens’ defense is allowing 277 yards passing per game. Joe Burrow is a lot better now than when he faced the Ravens as a rookie. He has Ja'Marr Chase to throw to as well. 9* Over Bengals/Ravens

8* Washington (1:00 ET): Seemingly all is well in Green Bay right now as the Packers are riding high on a five-game win streak. They’ve covered the spread in every win as well. But despite the 5-1 SU record, they have an unimpressive point differential of only +8. For comparison sake, all other NFC teams that are 5-1 SU (or better) have a YTD point differential of at least +51. So the Packers are really trailing the other division leaders in that regard. Now, the reason for the Packers’ less than impressive point differential, is the 38-3 beatdown they were handed in Week 1 by the Saints. But I feel this is worth mentioning. Two of the wins have been by a FG or less. 

Washington, like Green Bay, was a division winner last season. But unlike the Pack, it doesn’t seem like the Football Team is destined to repeat. They are 2-4 SU overall with those two wins coming by a combined five points over the Giants and Falcons. Ron Rivera’s team is also tied for the worst ATS mark in the league at 1-5. The only game they covered was the miracle comeback in Atlanta. But despite their defense not performing as well as expected thus far, I view this as a great “buy low” spot on Washington. This is a team that’s led in every game this season but one (at Buffalo). 

Green Bay’s defense has allowed a TD every time an opposing offense has entered the red zone this season. That’s bad. This has all the makings of a “trap game” for the Packers, who know that they have a “short week” coming up before a visit to undefeated Arizona on Thursday. Give credit to the Pack for the five-game win streak. It’s not easy to win five straight in this league. But they haven’t really beaten any great teams to this point. It’s even harder to win SIX straight, let alone cover six in a row, so I’m grabbing the points in this one. 8* Washington

THERE HAS BEEN A PITCHING CHANGE FOR THE DODGERS, WHO ARE NOW STARTING BUEHLER IN PLACE OF SCHERZER. THE PLAY STILL STANDS!

10* LA Dodgers (5:08 ET): Dave Roberts’ decision to go with a “bullpen game” in Game 5 paid off as the Dodgers stayed alive with an easy 11-2 victory. We all thought that would lead to Max Scherzer starting Game 6. But as you know, that is no longer the case. Walker Buehler will get the nod instead and that is just fine by me. This play was always more about the team (Dodgers) than it was the starting pitcher. By the way, Buehler is a fine option as he has gone 16-5 (24-12 TSR) in his 36 starts this season with a 2.64 ERA and 1.005 WHIP. 

The Game 5 result had to be completely deflating for the Braves. Remember that they had their ace (Max Fried) on the mound while the Dodgers went with the bullpen game. Fried lasted only 4 ⅔ innings and gave up five runs on eight hits. The Dodgers’ league-leading offense ended up putting 11 runs and 17 hits on the board, led by Chris Taylor’s THREE home runs. Now the Dodgers will face Ian Anderson, who lasted only three innings when he started Game 2. Anderson wasn’t much better in his lone regular season start against the Dodgers as he gave up four runs in 4 ⅓ innings. 

The Dodgers have now won seven straight elimination games going back to last season’s World Series run. Also remember what team had baseball’s best regular season run differential (they did). This all has to feel like a terrible sense of “deja vu” for Atlanta, who blew a 3-1 series lead to the Dodgers in LY’s NLCS. This is all about taking what I feel is the best team in baseball. We’re heading for a Game 7. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Miami FL (7:30 ET): “The U” came into the 2021 season with high hopes. They were ranked #14 in the country and opened against (then) #1 Alabama on a neutral field. As you know, that game did not go well for the contingent from Coral Gables. The Hurricanes were slaughtered 44-13. But lots of teams lose badly to Nick Saban. What the Miami fanbase was NOT counting on is three more losses over the next five games, including an 0-2 start in ACC play. At 2-4 SU, HC Manny Diaz is firmly on the “hot seat.” 

It’s obviously been a “topsy-turvy” season in the Atlantic Coast Conference as Clemson has already lost twice and is unranked. North Carolina, another preseason Top 10 team, is 3-3. The three ranked teams are Wake Forest (#16), Pitt (#23) and NC State (#18). The Wolfpack are 2-0 in conference play thus far and 5-1 SU overall. They’ve beaten Clemson (in overtime) and then last week (off a bye) was maybe their most impressive showing to date as they went to Chestnut Hill and throttled Boston College 33-7 as three-point favorites. 

This, to me, feels like a “sell high” spot on NC State and a time to “buy low” on Miami. Few would have envisioned, at the start of the season, that the Hurricanes would be getting points in this matchup. They easily could have won each of the L2 games, but missed GW FG against Virginia and then threw an INT in the red zone LW vs. UNC. Previous to last week, NC State had played only one other road game and they lost it, 24-10 to Mississippi State. They were outgained in a 34-27 win over Louisiana Tech (in Raleigh) three weeks ago. Taking the points is the way to go here. 8* Miami FL

9* Clemson (3:30 ET): It is painfully obvious by this point that Clemson does not have much offense. While last week did see them hold on to defeat a scrappy Syracuse team 17-14, they failed to cover (as 12.5-point chalk) and are now 0-6 ATS on the year! Only Missouri and New Mexico (both 0-7 ATS) are worse nationally when it comes to the betting window. I will readily admit that I was wrong to lay the points with the Tigers last Friday at the Carrier Dome. But this looks to be the ultimate “buy low” spot as for the 1st time since the National Championship Game at the end of the 2019 season, Clemson is an underdog. Take the points here. 

Dabo Swinney has not been an underdog in an ACC game since 2016. So this is something truly “out of the ordinary” as his Tigers head to Pitt for the first time ever. Because they’ve already lost two regular season games (first time since 2014), Clemson is out of the polls. But most power ratings, including my own, continue to have respect for them. Earlier I referenced the offensive struggles. But the defense has been great, holding every opponent to 14 points or less in regulation. When you’re favored by double digits - as the Tigers have been in every game but one - that doesn’t guarantee you’re going to cover the spread. But as a dog, that kind of defense is huge. 

It should also come in handy when facing a Pittsburgh team that came into last week leading the FBS in scoring. But the Panthers were held to “just” 28 points last week at Virginia Tech, a sign they can be kept in check. Something to keep in mind is that Pitt hadn’t exactly faced a slew of great defenses before heading to Blacksburg last weekend. While my power ratings respect the Panthers, calling them the ACC’s 2nd best team, Clemson is still #1 in that regard and I’m taking the points. 9* Clemson

8* Iowa State (3:30 ET): It would be easy to forget that Iowa State began the season ranked in the Top 10. The Cyclones have already lost twice, once to Iowa and the other time to Baylor, and have been out of the Top 25 for a few weeks. Yet Matt Campbell’s team still finds itself favored here, by a touchdown, against a Top 10 opponent. That says something, doesn’t it? Note that in their losses, the Cyclones outgained Iowa 339-173 (but were -4 in turnovers) and Baylor 479-282. I think Oklahoma State is extremely fortunate to be 6-0 as they’ve had to come from behind in half of those wins. I’m laying the points in this Big 12 matchup. 

OSU may be a Top 10 team according to the pollsters, but I don’t even have them ranked in the Top 25 of my own power ratings. Just like the oddsmakers, I have Iowa State rated higher. Last week, the Cowboys really burned me against Texas, storming back from a two-touchdown deficit in the 1st half to win 32-24. It’s not the first time we’ve seen that from Mike Gundy’s outfit. The Pokes also came back (from a 13-point deficit) to beat Boise State 21-20, trailed Tulsa (at home) entering the 4th quarter and even had to hold off FCS Missouri State in the opener (only won by 7). All of OSU’s wins have been by 11 points or less and their luck is about to run out here in Ames. 

The Cowboys’ YTD scoring differential is actually the third lowest EVER for a 6-0 team in the AP Poll era! I don’t see them doing much on offense in this game as they are up against an Iowa State defense that leads the conference in both scoring (16.3 PPG) and yards allowed (251.3). The Cyclones, who have been favored in every game this season, are finally seeing their own offense “spring to life” as RB Breece Hall has had four straight 100+ yard games, including a season-high 197 last week in a 33-20 win at Kansas State. This is the second of B2B road games for OSU and I can’t see them winning both as underdogs. The ranks of the unbeaten are about to get smaller as Iowa State wins by more than a TD. 8* Iowa State

10* Over Wisconsin/Purdue (3:00 ET): While Purdue obviously could have cared less, my loss with the Over in their game last week against Iowa was quite frustrating. Give credit where credit is due. The Boilermakers rolled into Iowa City and stomped the #2 ranked team in the country (yeah right!) 24-7 as a double digit underdog. But four turnovers by the Hawkeyes, all of them in Purdue territory, were the reason that game stayed Under. That and the fact there were two missed FGs (one by each side) after long drives and Purdue also fumbled at the goal line. The Boilermakers are now 6-0 Under this season, making them the ONLY team in the country yet to go Over in a single game. That changes this week. 

You can’t take away what Purdue did offensively last week against a very good Iowa defense. QB Aidan O’Connell threw for 375 yards and WR David Bell hauled in a career-high 240 yards. The Wisconsin defense that the Boilermakers will face this week is good, but not as good as Iowa’s, as evident by the fact the Badgers gave up 41 points to Notre Dame and 38 to Michigan. The number of points allowed vs. ND is a bit misleading (non-offensive TDs) but there was nothing phony about the way Michigan put it on them. As I alluded to earlier, Purdue should have scored 30+ points last week against a very good Iowa defense.

This is a really low O/U line, the lowest of the season for Purdue. It’s not the lowest of the season for Wisconsin as they played Army last week and the O/U line for that game was 37. The game did NOT go Over (Badgers won 20-14), although I should point out that it was close. Wisconsin’s defense is great against the run, but it has faced two terrible passing teams (Illinois, Army) in a row. They allowed 239+ yards passing in three of the first four games and as we saw last week, the passing game is the strength of this Purdue offense (334 YPG). This one gets Over. 10* Over Wisconsin/Purdue

8* Virginia Tech (12:30 ET): The underdog role always seems to serve Syracuse pretty well. They certainly should be used to it by now. This week marks the 21st consecutive game where they are getting points against a FBS opponent. Getting points is why they are 6-1 ATS this season and have covered five straight times. Each of the Orange’s last four games have been decided by exactly three points. While they’ve won only one of those straight up - a 24-21 upset of Liberty at the Carrier Dome - they’ve covered the spread in all four games. But after suffering three consecutive heartbreaking losses, you have to think a toll has been taken. I think that this week the ‘Cuse is ripe to be beaten and beaten badly. 

The most recent loss for the Orange came last Friday at home to Clemson. They easily covered the spread (closed +12.5) in that one, but lost (17-14) when they missed a FG in the final minute. The week before saw them lose in OT to Wake Forest, also at home. The week before that saw them lose 33-30 on a last second FG, one that was made by Florida State. What can this team possibly have left in the tank? Making matters more challenging is that the Orange have to leave their beloved Carrier Dome this week. 

Overall, Virginia Tech was not impressive in a home loss to Pittsburgh last week. But I thought the Hokies’ defense did a good job in holding what was the top scoring team in the country to just 28 points. That worked for me as I bet that game Under. The Hokies’ previous two losses were close games, at West Virginia (stopped on goal line in the final minute) and then at home vs. Notre Dame (GW FG kicked with 17 seconds left). So they could easily be coming into this game at 5-1 SU rather than 3-3.. I just can’t see Justin Fuente (on the hot seat) losing a third straight game in Blacksburg. The Hokies have a much better defense than Syracuse and I would rate them as better on neutral field. So lay the short number at home. 8* Virginia Tech

10* Everton (10:00 AM ET): After dropping a disappointing 1-0 decision to West Ham last week, this is pretty close to a “must win” for top five hopeful Everton. A late header (74th minute) proved to be the difference last week in what was only Everton’s second loss of the campaign. But they’ve won just one of their last four. That leaves them level with both West Ham and Manchester United at 14 points, good for a sixth place tie, but Everton trails those two sides on goal differential. I think they’re in line for a big win Saturday. 

I say that because they are facing Watford, who is really struggling right now. They went down 5-0 at the hands of Liverpool last week, their fourth straight across all competitions without a win. Watford is four points clear of the drop zone right now, but if I were them I wouldn’t be too confident in their ability to stay clear. One of Watford’s wins this year came at the expense of Norwich City, who seems destined for relegation. 

Since that win, the Hornets have lost to a second tier side in the Carabao Cup, drew with Newcastle United (another bad team), lost to Leeds (another bad team) and then came last week’s bludgeoning at the hands of Liverpool. That was their first fixture under a new manager and second straight without a goal. I know Everton has had some injury concerns, but they’d won three straight at home before the loss to West Ham and the Toffees have NEVER lost at Goodison Park to Watford in Premier League action. 10* Everton

9* Valencia (8:00 AM ET): So, as I talked about on Friday, La Liga seems a lot more wide open this season. One of the teams in the mix is Valencia, who currently sits 10th in the table amongst some of the “big boys” This despite the fact that the Bats have not won any of their last five fixtures. Overall, they’ve won three, drawn three and lost three. That leaves them with a very respectable 12 points though and I think they add to it with the full three on Saturday as they host struggling Mallorca. 

Mallorca is a newly promoted side that - like Valencia - got off to a good start to the La Liga season before falling off a bit. They’ve won just once in the last six tries, losing four. It was a 1-0 loss to current table leaders Real Sociedad last week. While there’s no real shame there, it was the third time they’ve been kept “clean” this season. It also bears mentioning that Sociedad played the entire second half with only 10 men. In only one match has Mallorca scored more than one goal. At the same time, they have the joint worst defensive record in the league, having conceded 13 times already. 

Valencia has been one of the highest scoring sides to this point with 13 goals. I know they’ve gone cold recently, picking up just two points from those L5 fixtures. However, look at some of the clubs they have faced. They’ve faced Barcelona, Athletic Club, Sevilla and Real Madrid. They should have picked up three points when they faced Cadiz, but that ended up being a goalless draw. They can’t afford to let this one pass them by. 9* Valencia

10* Under Red Sox/Astros (8:08 ET): Over bettors are having a “field day” in both LCS, but particularly here in the American League where EVERY game has gone their way. You certainly don’t have to remind me as I had the Under in the last game, which was still on track to be a winner entering the ninth inning. But Houston just “had” to put two “meaningless” runs on the board in that final frame (with two outs!) to make it a 9-1 final. It was even more painful if you have the Under in Game 3 when the Astros put SEVEN runs on the board in the top of the ninth (again, with two outs). The Under is not only 5-0 in this series, but 7-0 the L7 times they’ve met and 8-0 in each of the teams’ last eight games. 

Maybe it’s just me being stubborn, but I feel this is where the Over streak comes to an end. Boston had just three hits in Game 5 and only five hits in Game 4. That was at Fenway Park where they are averaging 5.8 runs per game for the season. On the road, that average dips to 4.5. So much of the Red Sox scoring in this series has come from a record-setting number of grand slams. But those days are over. The Under just so happens to be 6-1 in the Astros’ last seven LCS home games. 

There certainly hasn’t been a whole lot of scoring in the early innings of the L2 games. It was 1-0 (Houston) after five in Game 5 and 2-1 (Boston) entering the eighth in Game 4. Starting Game 6 for the Red Sox will be Nathan Eovaldi, who has allowed a total of just six runs his L4 starts (all team wins) in 17 ⅔ IP. Eovaldi will be opposed by Luis Garcia, who has seen the Under go 11-3 in his home starts thanks in large part to a 2.92 ERA and 1.054 WHIP. Yes, he had the disastrous start here vs. Boston in Game 2. I do not see history repeating itself. Eovaldi allowed just three runs in 5 ⅓ IP in that game, which is realistic to be repeated. 10* Under Red Sox/Astros.

9* Toronto (7:35 ET): Boston lost a tough one on Wednesday, dropping their first game in OT to the Knicks by a score of 138-134. Jaylen Brown, despite spending the majority of the previous 10 days in quarantine (COVID-19), scored 46 points for the Celtics. But obviously those went to waste. Jayson Tatum did not shoot the ball well at all, going 7 for 30 from the field including 2 of 15 from three-point range. The Celtics now turn around and host another division rival, that being Toronto. I think the spread is too high here. 

The Raptors also lost their first game, albeit in much lower-scoring fashion compared to the Celtics. They went down 98-83 at home to the Wizards. As you can tell from the score, it was not a banner shooting night from the NBA’s Canadian contingent. They made only 30.9% of their field goal attempts and were a dreadful 7 of 34 from three-point range. You have to figure - even with leading scorer Pascal Siakam sidelined - that we will see better shooting tonight. 

Even with Siakam hurt and Kyle Lowry traded in the offseason, I think there's a case that Toronto will be better than it was last season. Despite going 27-45 SU in 2020-21, the Raptors were only outscored by 0.4 PPG. They were essentially playing to the level of a .500 team before the bottom dropped out at the end of the season and they lost their last seven games (injuries). This is a revenge game for them after being swept in LY’s season series. I look for this to be a close game that comes down to the wire. 9* Toronto

8* Osasuna (3:00 ET): La Liga has been far more wide open this season than in year’s past. Barcelona & the “two Madrids” (Atletico & Real) have finished among the top four each of the last eight seasons. Sevilla has joined that trio in the top four each of the last two campaigns. But it feels like a deeper pool of contenders here in 2021-22 with as many as 11 sides feeling like they could contend for a Champions League spot. One of the surprises is Osasuna, who is currently tied for second in the table (fifth by goal goal differential) with 17 points. They’ve won three straight La Liga fixtures. 

At the opposite end of the spectrum, you have struggling Granada. They had not won any of their opening seven matches this season - losing four and drawing three - before shocking Sevilla 1-0 right before the International Break. That was a shock victory, but I don’t expect it to have a carryover effect. The club was supposed to play Atletico Madrid last week, but that had to be postponed due to the proximity to the South American World Cup qualifiers. So when Granada hits “the pitch” on Friday, it will have been 19 days since they last played a competitive match. 

When it comes to expected points (xPts), Granada is dead last in all of La Liga. Even more damning is the fact they have the fewest xPts of any side in any of the four “big” European leagues. I think it’s going to be a real struggle for them to avoid relegation. Osasuna is a side that should clearly finish in the top half of the table. They should get the full three points here. Last week they defeated Villarreal, a top four side from LY, 2-1. 8* Osasuna

10* Sampdoria (2:45 ET): Two sides that are precariously close to the drop zone will face off on Friday as Sampdoria hosts Spezia. For the home side, the last four fixtures have gone much differently than the first four. I Blucerchiati began the 2021-22 campaign with a four-match unbeaten run. But the last four have seen them fail to win, picking up just a point from a 3-3 draw with Udinese. That leaves them 17th in the table, but level on points with 19th place Cagliari, who just beat them 3-1 last week. But the upcoming schedule does seem favorable with four of the next six fixtures going down here at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. 

One point above Sampdoria in 16th place is Spezia, who are coming off a 2-1 win over last place Salernitana. It was Spezia’s second win of the campaign. The first came against Venezia, another newly promoted side, several weeks ago. Despite having one more point and one more win than Sampdoria, I feel that Spezia is a more likely candidate to finish in the drop zone. I say that based on their -10 goal differential, which is currently the second worst in all of Serie A (ahead of only Salernitana). 

Having yet to win this season on home soil, you’ve got to figure Sampdoria is going to come out fired up Friday. They’ve also yet to keep a clean sheet here. But the key here may be the fact that Spezia has the worst defensive record (20 goals conceded) in all of Serie A. I’ve got to think Sampdoria gets the full three points here and moves away from the drop zone. 10* Sampdoria

8* Cleveland (8:20 ET): This may seem like a “risky” bet, given how banged up the Browns are on the offensive side of the ball. With it being a short week, backup Case Keenum will be the starting QB and he won’t have either of the team's two main running backs (Hunt, Chubb) to hand the ball off to. Receiver is a question mark as is the offensive line. But Keenum knows HC Kevin Stefanski’s offense from the time the two spent together in Minnesota. This is the first time the Browns have lost two in a row under Stefanski and I just can’t see them losing a third in a row. Not at home against another reeling team. Lay the points. 

Denver’s 3-0 SU start to the season now seems like a distant memory. It’s critical to keep in mind that those three wins came at the expense of the Giants, Jets & Jaguars, who are a collective 3-15 SU this season. The Broncos have since nosedived with three straight losses (Ravens, Steelers, Raiders), all of which have been by eight points or more. Their QB (Teddy Bridgewater) is far from 100% right now (foot, quad) and the same could be said for a defense which gave up SEVEN plays of 25+ yards to the Raiders last week (most since ‘91) and is down three starting linebackers. 

Cleveland played a terrible game last week vs. Arizona, but they easily could have been 5-0 going into that game. They blew halftime leads against both the Chiefs and the Chargers. I know this isn’t “the same team” as those first five games, but I think the Browns will be motivated (in front of a National TV audience) to prove their detractors wrong. Denver was tied for the league lead in net upsets (+5) last season, something that typically does NOT carry over to the following year. It’s interesting that they’ve already lost three games as a favorite this season and this is the first time they’ve been an underdog. The number has come down significantly throughout the week to where there’s value on the Browns. 8* Cleveland

10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): The Bucks began the defense of their NBA Championship with a convincing 127-104 victory over Brooklyn on Opening Night. What was so impressive about that is they won by 23 despite the Nets shooting 53.1% from three-point range! And it’s not like the Bucks were exactly “on fire” from behind the arc; they made just 17 of 45 attempts. But they had 21 more FG attempts than Brooklyn did and Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 32-14-7 and shot 12/25 from the floor. 

This is Miami’s season opener. They come into 2021-22 with some new faces, most notably Kyle Lowry, who they obtained in trade with Toronto. He joins Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo as the three cornerstones of the team. The Heat are hoping Lowry helps them move up the Eastern Conference standings after a sixth place finish last year. But this is a tough first game against the team that swept them in the first round of last year’s playoffs. Three of those four games were decided by double digits. I don’t think the Heat are THAT much better now than they were in May. 

The Heat did not have a particularly impressive net efficiency rating or point differential last season. They very much were a slightly above average team. The Bucks had the East’s best point differential and obviously went on to win the whole thing. Seeing as the better team already has a game under its belt, I consider that to be a pretty significant advantage for Thursday night’s game. The Bucks are likely to shoot better here than they did on Tuesday, which is a frightening proposition for Miami. 10* Milwaukee

10* LA Dodgers (8:08 ET): Many people (myself included) considered the Dodgers-Giants LDS to be the “real” NLCS as it was a matchup of the teams with the two best records from the regular season. After advancing, the Dodgers had to be feeling pretty good about their chances of making it back to the World Series. But Atlanta obviously had other ideas as a team that had only 88 regular season wins (fewest of any division winner) is now one win away from the Fall Classic. But if this sounds familiar, that’s because the Braves also led LY’s NLCS three games to one. We all remember what happened next. 

With their season on the brink, the Dodgers are going to use a “bullpen game” tonight. Given what’s at stake, it seems a bit risky but obviously manager Dave Roberts is comfortable enough with his team and knows he can then have Max Scherzer waiting in the wings for Game 6. Last night was the first game of the series where the Dodgers did NOT enjoy a two-run lead at any point. They were never in it, failing behind 5-0 early and it was over from there. The Braves hit four home runs, something I don’t see happening again tonight. 

Prior to losing Games 1 and 2, the Dodgers had only dropped B2B games one time since the start of August. They have not lost B2B home games since late July. That and a sweep at the hands of the Giants on Memorial Day Weekend are the only times since the start of May where the Dodgers have lost two straight at home. I know they’re going against Max Fried tonight, but this is the #1 team in baseball and it would be a mistake to write them off (see 2020). 10* LA Dodgers

10* Tulane (7:30 ET): SMU enters the week as one of the 11 remaining unbeatens in College Football. Over time, you know that number is going to dwindle. This may not be the week that the Ponies suffer their first SU loss, however I definitely am going to fade them and take the points with Tulane. In my own personal power ratings, SMU has the third lowest ranking among the 11 unbeatens. Not only do they fail to crack my Top 25, they barely crack the Top 50! So I definitely think they're being overvalued this week against a Tulane team that is better than most realize. 

Tulane is just 1-5 SU and has given up a ton of points during an 0-4 SU/ATS losing streak. But the Green Wave have faced some tough competition thus far, including Oklahoma, Ole Miss, UAB and Houston. This is a team that can put points on the board as they average 32.8 PPG, led by QB Michael Pratt. The SMU defense, despite not facing many great offenses so far, has given up an average of 5.7 yards per play. Tulane has been favored in half of its games so far, so you’d expect them to have a better overall record coming into this game. Again, they are going to be a tougher out than most realize, especially for a SMU team that may be looking ahead. 

The Mustangs still have upcoming road games with Houston, Memphis and Cincinnati (the big one) where their unbeaten record (if still intact) will be put to the test. Their focus may very well be on those games right now. In addition to being a bit of a tricky spot for the favorite, there are some trends that support a play on the underdog here. The road team has covered 11 of the previous 15 meetings between these schools and Tulane is 9-2 ATS coming off a conference loss. SMU, who could barely scrape by Navy in its last game, is just 2-9 ATS off a conference win. Half of the Mustangs wins have been by eight points or less and against Navy they were down by two touchdowns. 10* Tulane

10* Real Sociedad (3:00 ET): Current La Liga leaders Real Sociedad make their return to European football this week, looking to make a move in Group B of the Europa League. Sociedad have drawn their first two Europa League fixtures, 1-1 with Monaco and 2-2 with PSV Eindhoven. However, don’t let that cloud the fact that they remain unbeaten in their last 10 across all competitions. I see them moving up the Group B standings here as they should get the full three points from Austrian side Sturm Graz. 

Sturm Graz was a winner over the weekend in the Austrian Bundesliga as they continue to run a distant second behind Red Bull Salzburg on the domestic front. But this competition has proven a lot less kind with losses to Monaco and Eindhoven. They were somewhat competitive with Monaco (lost 1-0) but then were put to the sword by Eindhoven in an ugly 5-1 defeat. While they know that a third straight loss would pretty much be a “death knell” in this competition, I just don't think Sturm Graz is capable of competing against the leaders of one of Europe’s “big four” leagues. 

Sociedad have not lost since falling to Barcelona 4-2 on the opening matchday of the La Liga season. That was back in August. Saturday’s 1-0 win over Mallorca marked their sixth “clean sheet” of the season. Given they are facing an opponent that has scored just one goal in two Europa League fixtures thus far, another clean sheet is certainly within the realm of possibility here. There should really be no argument as to who is the superior side in this one. 10* Real Sociedad

8* Fenerbahce Istanbul (12:45 ET): The two Group D sides that are without a win meet Thursday in a critical clash. The hosts (Fenerbahce) were at least able to secure a point in their opening Europa League fixture, a 1-1 draw with Eintracht Frankfurt. That means a win here could vault them into a second place tie with the Bundesliga side depending on what else happens on this particular matchday. I’m betting on Fenerbahce to at least handle its business in what should be a three-point fixture here. 

Royal Antwerp is now left to hope for a repeat of last season’s Europa League when they lost the opening two fixtures only to qualify from the group stage. So far it’s been a 2-1 to Olympiacos and a 1-0 loss to Eintracht Frankfurt. In both instances, Antwerp conceded the game-winner late; the 87th minute and then in stoppage time. That’s a pretty brutal start to the proceedings, but in my view the worst is yet to come as this looks to be the bottom side in Group D. 

Not only is Fenerbahce coming off a 3-0 loss to Olympiacos (at home) in their last Europa League fixture, but they also lost last weekend in the Turkish Super Lig, 3-1 to Trabzonspor. That despite opening up the scoring in the third minute. They’ve lost only two times on the domestic side this season and as far as European football is concerned, this is pretty much a “must win.” This figures to be the ONLY Group D match where they are favored. 8* Fenerbahce Istanbul

8* Appalachian State (7:30 ET): I have no unearthly idea what happened to Appalachian State last Tuesday when they suffered a humiliating 41-13 defeat at Louisiana. I do know they turned the ball over four times and were 0 for 11 on third down. You’re not going to win many football games doing that. It was a highly uncharacteristic effort from the Mountaineers, whose only other loss this year came by two points at Miami FL. Perhaps last week was a case of “looking ahead” to this game, a showdown with undefeated and reigning Sun Belt Champion Coastal Carolina. Whatever the reason was, I’m calling for ASU to bounce back at home. Take the points. 

It’s been 13 days since Coastal Carolina last took the field. The 52-20 win over Arkansas State made the Chanticleers the first team in the country to become bowl eligible. But they are obviously interested in far more than just making it to a bowl. This team had an undefeated regular season last year (11-0) before losing to Liberty 37-34 (OT) in the Cure Bowl. Now the Chants are looking to represent the “Group of Five” in a New Year’s Six Bowl. This will be by far their toughest test to date as so far Coastal has been a two-touchdown favorite in every game. They’ve been favored by 20 or more in all but one game and three times they’ve been favored by 30 or more. 

You have to remember that Louisiana (who smoked App State last week) is the Sun Belt’s “other good team.” It was a bad loss for the Mountaineers, but not something they can’t overcome. Coming into the season, this is the game they circled as they’ve got revenge for a 34-23 loss in Conway last season. Now the game is in Boone, where ASU has suffered only two losses the L3 years and both were by a field goal. They have not been a home dog since 2017. Coastal came out of NOWHERE in 2020 (were picked to finish 5th in the SBC!) and as a result, I felt their record would regress this season. If they are to lose a regular season game, it would clearly be this one. To this point, the Chanticleers have not faced a team I’d consider to be ranked in the top 100 in the country. App State is on their level, particularly at home. Coming off last week’s shocking loss, this is a great “buy low” spot on the home dog. 8* Appalachian State

10* Under Pacers/Hornets (7:05 ET): Two Eastern Conference teams that I expect to end up fighting for play-in spots come playoff time are Indiana and Charlotte. That shouldn’t be considered a very “hot” take. After all, both these teams found themselves in the play-in round last year. Neither made it out with the Hornets losing to the Pacers 144-117 to end their season. Then Indiana could not get by Washington, losing 142-115, which ended their season. It should be a much lower-scoring game to start the season this year. Take the Under on Wednesday.

Indiana has finished between fourth and ninth place in the Eastern Conference each of the last six seasons. That’s a nice run of consistency, but they’ve never advanced past the first round of the playoffs during that time. The hope is that new HC Rick Carlisle can take them past mediocrity. He’s got some good pieces with Sabonis, Turner, Brogdon, LeVert and Warren forming a solid starting five. There’s not much depth though. What Carlisle needs to work on - and probably will - is the defense. The Pacers gave up 115.7 PPG, the same number they averaged themselves. That led to the highest Over percentage in the league. I expect more Unders in 2021-22. 

Compared to Indiana, Charlotte games were much lower-scoring last season. The Hornets only averaged 109.6 PPG, which put them in the bottom third of the league. Defensively, the key to their success is playing more zone than every other team. The zone clearly bothers opponents. It should bother Indiana, who will be without Warren and LeVert. But I worry about the Hornets offensively as their leading scorer last year was Terry Rozier. We saw what happened LY in the play-in game when the threes weren’t falling. The Under is 13-3 their L16 games as a home favorite. 10* Under Pacers/Hornets

10* Under Astros/Red Sox (5:08 ET): These teams must REALLY love to go Over. Last night saw the Astros stun the Fenway faithful with a seven-run ninth inning. That not only evened this ALCS up at two games apiece, but sent Game 4 Over the total by one run. Every game in the series has now gone Over. Both teams are 7-0 Over their L7 games. They are 6-0 Over the L6 times they’ve faced one another. This “madness” has to come to an end sooner rather than later. Right? 

We’ve got two lefties starting Game 5 - Framber Valdez for Houston and Chris Sale for Boston. This is a rematch from Game 1 when neither southpaw was very effective. Both were pulled after just 2 ⅔ innings. But Valdez has better numbers on the road than he does at home, namely a 2.88 ERA and 1.139 WHIP. Sale has better numbers at home (2.48 ERA, 1.276 WHIP) than he does on the road. So expect both guys to pitch better than they did in Game 1. Valdez had a 1.59 ERA vs. Boston while Sale had a 2.20 ERA vs. Houston (prior to Game 1). 

Obviously, condolences are in order to anyone that may have had the Under last night. That bet looked like a surefire winner for most of the game. It was 2-1 going into eighth and 2-2 going into the ninth with an O/U line of 10.0. But we saw what happens with Boston when they’re not hitting grand slams every night. They finished with just five hits and the only two runs scored both came in the first inning. The Under is 7-1 the last 8 times the Red Sox have faced a left-handed starter. We’re obviously overdue for an Under in this series. 10* Under Astros/Red Sox

8* Golden State (10:05 ET): The Warriors’ 2020-21 season came to an end in the play-in round and the Lakers were partly responsible for that. The league’s very first play-in game saw these teams match up and it was LA winning 103-100 on a last second LeBron James’ three-pointer. Golden State would get a second chance to advance to the playoffs, but also lost that one, 117-112 to Memphis (in overtime). Still, last season was an improvement for the Dubs after plummeting to the worst record in the league two years ago. 

Meanwhile, there was only one way to go for the Lakers after winning the NBA Championship in 2020. As is obvious by the fact they were in the play-in round, LA regressed heavily last season. Only three players are back from LY’s team, two of them being LeBron James and Anthony Davis. So I would not count on a fast start from “Showtime” in 2021-22. LeBron is now 36 years old and has played the second most minutes in NBA history. For what it’s worth, with all the new faces, the Lakers were 0-6 SU in the preseason. 

Golden State was 5-0 SU in its preseason, two of those wins coming against the Lakers! It is clear that the Warriors are getting back to the mentality that brought them multiple NBA Championships and that mentality involves shooting a lot of threes. We started to see it at the end of last year’s regular season. Steph Curry scored 41 in the final preseason game and with him and Draymond Green on the court at the same time, the Dubs destroyed opponents (provided James Wiseman was also NOT on the court). The revenge angle is big here and I don’t think Russell Westbrook is ready to be a difference maker for the Lakers just yet. Take the points. 8* Golden State

10* Under Nets/Bucks (7:35 ET): The two top teams in the Eastern Conference, if not the entire league, square off on Opening Night as the reigning NBA Champion Bucks host the Nets. Entering this season, Brooklyn has the best odds of winning the NBA Finals. But they are also dealing with the issue of Kyrie Irving not being available until he gets vaccinated. They still have the luxury of Kevin Durant and James Harden being on the roster though. Irving and Harden both missing three games in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals had a lot to do with Milwaukee overcoming an 0-2 hole to win that series in seven games. 

That ECF was much lower-scoring than anticipated, given these were the two highest scoring teams in the league last season. Only one of the seven games went Over the total and that was Game 7, which went to OT. In fact, the Under is 7-1-1 the L9 meetings between these teams including a perfect 5-0 when they play here in Milwaukee. 

I’m going to say that they go Under again here in the season opener. Neither team figures to be in “peak offensive form” for the first game. Somewhat incredibly, the losing team did not even score 100 points in four of the seven games in LY’s ECF. It may not be THAT low-scoring this time around, but this is a high O/U for the first game and I just can’t see this one reaching it. 10* Under Nets/Bucks

8* LA Dodgers (5:08 ET): While the Dodgers are shockingly down 0-2 to the Braves in the NLCS, they have to feel like they could have won at least one, if not BOTH games in Atlanta. Games 1 and 2 were each decided by one run with the Braves winning both in walkoff fashion. The Dodgers out hit them 10-6 in Game 1 and then twice blew a 2-run lead in Game 2. This is just the second time LA has suffered B2B losses since the start of August. Over the L5 months, there have been just four occasions where they’ve lost three or more in a row. The last time they lost three straight to the same team was early July. 

So I’ve got to back the Dodgers here in Game 3 as they return home and have Walker Buehler on the hill. Buehler has had a truly dominant year, going 16-4 in the regular season with a 2.47 ERA. Overall, the team is 23-12 in his L35 starts this season. Buehler is not only 2-0 (with a 2.79 ERA) in three career regular season starts vs. the Braves, but he dominated in LY’s NLCS as well, holding them to one run in 11 IP. Do not forget that the Dodgers also faced an 0-2 series deficit in LY’s NLCS. They overcame it despite no home games. They are 60-24 this year at Chavez Ravine. 

I think most would agree that the Dodgers’ biggest issue in this series has been a lack of “clutch hitting.” They are just 2 for 18 with runners in scoring position, striking out nine times in that situation. I’m going to call for that to turn around today. This team is too good offensively to continue struggling like that. Charlie Morton starts Game 3 for the Braves and while he’s had a good year, as a member of the Rays he struggled against the Dodgers in LY’s World Series. Furthermore, let’s not forget visiting teams are hitting just .206 this year at Dodger Stadium. So the Braves are going to be the ones struggling to score runs here. Laying the hefty price is certainly justified for Game 3. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Real Madrid (3:00 ET): Group D has certainly been turned “upside down” in this year’s Champions League with the shocking start from upstart Sheriff Tiraspol. The first time UCL entrant from Moldova leads the group with a 2-0 record as they have defeated both Real Madrid and Shakhtar Donetsk. Those two sides meet Tuesday in a key clash. Real Madrid, who did defeat Inter Milan 1-0 in their opening fixture here, can move level with Sheriff with a win. I look for them to get the much needed three points. 

Shakhtar Donetsk have yet to win in this year’s Champions League. In addition to their shock loss to Sheriff, they shared the points in a goalless draw with Inter. While things are going well on the domestic front for the Ukrainian side, the step up to UCL has always proven to be a bit challenging. They’ve won just four of their last 21 matches in this competition. Even here on home soil they tend to struggle, winning just five of the last 17 UCL fixtures. I think they are pretty clearly outmanned in this one. 

Real Madrid has been off for awhile as last weekend’s fixture with Athletic Club (in La Liga) had to be postponed due to the South American World Cup qualifiers. So they have not been on the pitch since taking a surprise 2-1 loss to Espanyol on Oct 3. I think Real Madrid will come out VERY motivated on Tuesday as they’ve since fallen out of first place in La Liga (despite having, by far, the best goal differential) and are actually winless in their last three across all competitions. They are far too good for such a streak to continue. Further sweetening the pot is the fact Los Blancos have double revenge from LY’s UCL Group stage. Expect a big win for the favorite today. 10* Real Madrid

10* Buffalo (8:20 ET): I said it in my analysis for the Sunday night game last week, but I’ll repeat it here. The Bills are the best team in the league right now. They have a +108 point differential after going to Kansas City and winning 38-20 as 2.5-point underdogs. No other team in the league (entering Sunday) has a YTD point differential better than +62. Each of their four straight wins have been by at least 18 points. So while the spread seems high for Monday night’s game in Tennessee, I’m laying it. 

The Titans are 3-2 and will probably win their division. But I don’t think they’re an elite team by any means or even as good as they’ve been the last couple years. Winning the AFC South should not be viewed as any major achievement as it’s the worst division in football. Two of the Titans’ three wins this year have been against division rivals (Indianapolis and Jacksonville) and they were actually outgained last week by the Jags as the defense gave up nearly 7.0 yards per play to a winless team. Don’t forget the Titans also lost to the Jets. They are certainly not on the Bills’ level. 

Buffalo’s offense leads the league in scoring and QB Josh Allen should have a field day against a suspect Tennessee defense. For the year, the Titans are being outgained on a per play basis. On offense, they have allowed the most sacks in the league (20) and have a banged up WR corps. Last week saw the Bills avenge their loss in LY’s AFC Championship Game. Here the revenge tour continues as they lost 42-16 to Tennessee last season. They remember that and won’t take their foot off the gas pedal. 10* Buffalo  

10* Under Astros/Red Sox (8:07 ET): With the ALCS now set to move to Fenway Park, I’m going to call for the Over trend we’ve seen from both clubs to come to an end in Game 3. The first two games in Houston obviously both went Over as have the L5 games for both the Astros and Red Sox. However, let us not forget about the real rarity that ensued in Game 2 as the Red Sox hit not one, but TWO grand slams in the 9-5 victory. After the grand slams were hit (and the game was essentially no longer in doubt), the Red Sox managed only two hits the remainder of the game. Take the Under in Game 3. 

How rare is it to hit two grand slams in the same postseason game? Well before Boston did it on Saturday, it had NEVER happened before in MLB history! They were just the 6th team EVER to record grand slams in the first two innings of a MLB game. But I think the Astros have their man to slow the Red Sox down in Jose Urquidy, who will be making his postseason debut in Game 3. Urquidy has a 0.981 WHIP in 2021 and there have been only four starts all season where he allowed more than 3 ER.

Boston will counter with Eduardo Rodriguez, who hasn’t given up more than 2 ER in any of his L6 starts. Now he didn’t make it very long in Game 1 of the LDS against Tampa Bay. But even still, that wound up being the lone Under to cash for the Red Sox this postseason (they lost 5-0). The Under is also 17-7-4 after the Astros’ last 28 losses and 6-2 the L8 times the Astros have been a playoff underdog. 10* Under Astros/Red Sox

8* Espanyol (3:00 ET): A lot of what I said about Elche (the side I faded in Sunday’s La Liga action) also applies here to Cadiz. I thought that the Yellow Submarine were rather fortunate to remain in the Spanish top flight after last year. They were definitely fortunate to finish 12th in the table. I say that based on the fact they had the second lowest xPts total in La Liga, ahead of only Elche. This is the first time since the 90’s that Cadiz is playing at this level in B2B seasons. Currently in 14th, I won’t be the least bit surprised to see them fall closer to the drop zone by the end of the campaign. 

Espanyol is what Cadiz was last season, a newly promoted side just trying to stay at the top level of Spanish football. They’ve made a decent accounting of themselves thus far as they are two points ahead of Cadiz (with 9) and have a slightly better goal differential. They’ve won two of three including a 2-1 upset of Real Madrid (who was in 1st place at the time) right before the International Break. Espanyol, last year’s Segunda Division champs, knows how to win and I expect them to collect the full three points in this fixture. 

Cadiz has won only once this term and it was away against Celta Vigo. Since that time, they’ve played two goalless draws (against Valencia and Barcelona) with a 3-1 loss to Rayo Vallecano sandwiched in between. I know that the three points here are critical to both sides in the fight to avoid relegation. I just happen to think that Espanyol is the better side. 8* Espanyol

8* LA Dodgers (7:38 ET): So I won with Atlanta in Game 1. As I said in the analysis, they had some key advantages coming into this series, namely revenge, more rest, home field advantage and Max Fried starting. The home field advantage may be undeserved, but it “is what it is.” The rest advantage is no longer a factor heading into Game 2, revenge has been exacted (for a prior series sweep) and Fried is obviously not available tonight. So I’m backing the Dodgers to even this series up tonight. 

Dodgers’ manager Dave Roberts did NOT end up using Max Scherzer in Game 1, opting for a “bullpen game” instead. Losing a postseason game is obviously never ideal, but I think Roberts and the Dodgers are in good shape with Scherzer going in Game 2. Let’s also not forget the Dodgers did end up out-hitting the Braves last night 10-6. But they were doomed by going 1 for 8 with RISP (1 for 6 vs. Fried) and then of course there was the baserunning blunder in the top of the ninth. A case could be made, that even with Atlanta’s best pitcher on the mound, the Dodgers were the better team last night. 

There’s no doubt who the better starter is in Game 2. Scherzer is arguably the greatest trade deadline acquisition ever. He pitched twice in the NLDS vs. San Francisco, allowing just one run on three hits in his lone start (Game 3), then tossing the series-clinching final inning of Game 5. The Dodgers are 13-1 in Scherzer starts since acquiring him. Ian Anderson goes for the Braves. While he’s a fine pitcher in his own right, he’s not Scherzer. The Dodgers have lost B2B games just one time since the start of August! 8* LA Dodgers

7* Denver Money Line (4:25 ET): So, uhh, it’s been a rather tumultuous week out in Vegas with now former Raiders HC Jon Gruden resigning in disgrace. The team has to still play a football game this week mind you and to compound matters, the Silver and Black are off B2B losses as they hit the road to face Denver. The Broncos are in a similar situation in that they too have lost two straight following a 3-0 SU start. But they are at home and HC Vic Fangio’s emails are probably pretty nondescript. I look for Denver to be the team that ends its slide and will play them on the money line.

There’s really something pretty remarkable with this Broncos team. They were the ONLY team in the league not to be favored a single time last season. Now, in 2021, they have been favored in each of the first six games! I know that their three wins are against the Giants, Jets & Jaguars (who are a combined (2-13 SU), but you can argue (based on the pointspread) that the Broncos have actually underachieved to this point. Now they probably shouldn’t have been favored against the Ravens or at Pittsburgh. But this mess known as the Raiders is a team they should certainly beat. 

Long time special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia is the one left to pick up the pieces in the wake of Gruden’s departure. It’s obviously a very tough situation for someone with no prior NFL HC experience. He takes over an offense that has been really struggling of late with only 23 points scored in the L2 games. The Raiders rank 31st (next to last) in yards per rush. Two of their three wins came in OT, so I view them as being fortunate to even be 3-2 SU. Given the circumstances, this should be a win for the Broncos. 7* Denver Money Line

10* New England (4:25 ET): Dallas is the only team in the league to still be undefeated ATS. The Cowboys ran their mark to 5-0 ATS (and 4-1 SU) with a convincing 44-20 win last week (as seven-point favorites). But the team they beat (the Giants) resembled the “walking wounded” by the end of that game. By the time the second half kicked off, the G-Men were without SEVEN of their Week 1 starters on offense. This included QB Jones, RB Barkley and WR Golladay. So it’s no wonder that the Cowboys were able to win so easily. 

This week’s opponent seems a lot healthier and is also coming off a win. Now it was closer than anyone expected, but the Patriots did get by the Texans 25-22. This will now be the second time in three weeks that the Pats are home underdogs, something that never happened all that much when Tom Brady was the QB here. You may recall that I took the Patriots two weeks ago when they hosted Brady’s new team (Tampa Bay) and they came away with the cash, covering the number in a close 19-17 loss. If they can stick with the Bucs (lone team to beat Dallas this year), then they can stick with - or beat - the Cowboys. 

It all starts with a New England defense that gives up only 18.3 PPG. That’s top five in the league. Then, as I discussed in the analysis for the TB game, Bill Belichick has been great as an underdog throughout his career. He’s 49-24-1 ATS here in NE, including 25-10-1 since 2006. As a home dog, Belichick is 15-4 ATS with 12 outright wins. Dallas is an extremely “public” side this week and I definitely trust my money with Belichick more so than I do with Mike McCarthy. Take the points. 10* New England

8* Cleveland (4:05 ET): Arizona is 5-0 SU and the only unbeaten left in the NFL. But they were also the only team to win last week while being outgained on a per play basis. The 49ers outgained them for the game (338-304) and 5.7 to 5.1 per play. It was a lucky break facing a rookie QB (Trey Lance), who had to make his first career start on the road. Eventually, you know that the Cardinals are going to lose a game. This week, the Cards are poised to be without several key players as they go on the road to face a good Cleveland team. This is where the first loss happens. 

Cleveland is 3-2 with the two losses being close ones on the road to the Chiefs and Chargers. In both instances, Kevin Stefanski’s team led at halftime. Last week saw them put up 42 points and 532 yards with zero turnovers. They were the first team in NFL history to do that and still lose. That’s little consolation for the Browns, but the good news is that they’ve won six straight times off a SU loss and are 6-0 ATS L6 non-conference games. 

Arizona has already gone on the road and won three times, twice as an underdog. I can’t see them doing it again. Not with three positive COVID tests among players and staff this week. The one player we know that tested positive is LB Chandler Jones. That’s in addition to the losses of TE Maxx Williams (out for season) and center Rodney Houston to injuries. Cleveland also has its fair share of injuries, but can lean on the league’s best rushing attack and that will be the difference in a game where most of the focus will be about Mayfield vs. Murray. 8* Cleveland

8* Minnesota (1:00 ET): With the exception of an impressive 30-17 win they had up in Seattle, the Vikings have played nothing but close games this season. Four times things have been decided by seven points or less and last week one FINALLY went Mike Zimmer’s way as the Vikes got a last second FG to beat the Lions 19-17. It really should have never come to that as they led by 10 with less than three minutes remaining, only to give up a FG, then a touchdown after an inexcusable fumble. I happen to agree with the line move here and will play Minnesota as a road favorite. 

Carolina has been a bit exposed following a 3-0 SU/ATS start. They’ve dropped B2B games, failing to cover the number both times. I faded them last week when they hosted Philadelphia and that proved to be the correct decision as the Eagles came from behind to win 21-18. Like Minnesota, there was a late miscue you can point to (blocked punt), but unlike the Vikings, the Panthers could not overcome it. I remain unsold on Sam Darnold, who has thrown five interceptions and been sacked eight times in the team’s two losses. 

Despite a 2-3 SU record, the Vikings have a positive point differential, which is something definitely worth mentioning. I know that Minnesota has had its fair share of struggles at the “pay window” going back to last year, but that’s something that’s going to improve moving forward. Carolina may have solid defensive numbers thus far, but they really haven’t faced many good QB’s. The one time they did, they gave up 36 points to Dak Prescott and Dallas. Kirk Cousins has the “goods” to make them pay here and I don’t think the return of Christian McCaffery is enough to stop the Panthers from losing their third straight game. 8* Minnesota

10* Atalanta (9:00 AM ET): Perennial Serie A heavyweights Atalanta currently sit 8th in the table and that is simply not acceptable from where their fans sit. It’s actually a four-way tie for 6th that La Dea finds itself in, but they trail Lazio in goal differential. Traditionally one of the highest scoring sides in the league, it’s pretty shocking to see Atalanta with only 10 goals after seven matches. It’s fixtures like this one that they must win if they are to move up the table and get closer to the top four. I think they will take the full three points Sunday. 

Empoli is one of the newly promoted sides for 2021/22. They shocked Juventus earlier in the season, but have also been rather inconsistent. Before the International Break, they lost 2-0 to Roma, snapping a two-match win streak. I think they’re a bit lucky to be 10th in the table right now considering they have the third lowest expected point total in all of Serie A. Not only have they scored far more than expected, they’ve also conceded fewer times than what the metrics suggest they should have given up. 

Atalanta has not lost in their last nine away matches - posting six wins - so I’m not worried about them travelling here. Including Champions League play, La Dea has lost only once in their last six across all competitions, that being their last time out to Milan 3-2. Look for them to bounce back from that defeat here against a vulnerable side that is not able to compete with the clubs in the top half of the table. The last time Atalanta faced Empoli in Serie A (April ‘19), they had 47 shots on goal! 10* Atalanta

10* Rayo Vallecano (8:00 AM ET): Compared to the recently promoted sides in the Premier League, Bundesliga and Serie A, the 2021 newcomers in La Liga are making a decent accounting of themselves. Of the three, Rayo Vallecano has been the most impressive. They currently sit sixth in the table, having taken 13 points from their eight matches. Though they were blanked 1-0 by Osasuna right before the International Break, that result snapped a five-match unbeaten streak for Vallecano, which included four victories. I like them to pick up the full three points this week at the expense of a side in the bottom half of the table. 

I thought Elche was arguably the weakest side in all of La Liga last season. They were fortunate not to be relegated as they finished with the lowest xPts total in the league (30.31). Only one team (last place Eibar) suffered more defeats. This year has seen Los Franjiverdes be more competitive as they have a decent defensive record. But they’ve only scored five times in eight matches and that’s the primary reason why they currently sit 14th in the table with just nine points. Elche has not scored more than one goal in any La Liga fixture this season. 

Rayo has scored multiple goals in four different matches, so they’ve got a substantial edge in front of the net. They’ve also done a much better job defensively since losing 3-0 to Sevilla in the opener. Since then, they’ve conceded only five times in seven matches and never more than once in any individual match. They’ve also won all three fixtures here at the Estadio de Vallecas. Elche has just one away victory this season and is dealing with multiple injuries right now, so it’s tough to see them even sharing the points here. 10* Rayo Vallecano

10* Atlanta (8:08 ET): First off, please note that this play stands regardless of whom the Dodgers officially elect to go with as their starter for Game 1. At some point, we will probably see Max Scherzer. But despite that and the fact they won 18 fewer games in the regular season, the Braves look to have some key advantages heading into the opener of the NLCS. Despite the inferior WL record, they have the home field advantage due to being a division winner. Ludicrous as that rule may be, I don’t think anyone in Atlanta is complaining. 

In addition to the home field edge, the Braves also have Max Fried set to start Game 1. Fried led all of MLB with a 1.74 ERA after the All Star Break and was 8-2 in 13 starts. That run of dominance carried over to the LDS against Milwaukee where he tossed six shutout innings with nine strikeouts in a 3-0 victory. It was the third time in his last four starts that Fried did not give up a single run and he now has a 0.41 ERA and 0.455 WHIP in the last three. Remember that the Dodgers scored two runs or fewer in three of the five games vs. the Giants (and were shut out twice). 

The only time the Braves have lost with Fried on the mound since the start of August was to the Dodgers, by one run, back on September 1st. Fried allowed only three hits in 6 IP, but two were solo homers. The Dodgers would go on to sweep that series, which puts the revenge angle here in play for Atlanta. Another disadvantage for the Dodgers is they had to go to Game 5 vs. the Giants while the Braves have been off since Tuesday. I like Fried to lead them to a “surprise” Game 1 win. 10* Atlanta

10* New Mexico (7:00 ET): Few teams got off to a worse start in 2021 than Colorado State did. The Rams lost outright (42-23!) to FCS South Dakota State in their first game. Then they lost again as favorites (at home to Vanderbilt) the following week. The season then took a drastic turn with a 22-6 upset of Toledo on the road. CSU’s only TD in that game came on a punt return. They surprisingly stayed close in Iowa City (led at the half) and then last week came what was easily their best game, a 32-14 win over San Jose State. But even that one comes with the “asterisk” of being +3 in turnover differential.

Now taking New Mexico here, even with the points, does require a “leap of faith''. The Lobos are one of only two 0-6 ATS teams in the country. They’re losing by an average of 12.3 PPG and are near the bottom of the FBS in scoring. But they’ve also faced some pretty good teams on the road, like Texas A&M and San Diego State. They also hosted Air Force, who is 5-1 SU. Considering where Colorado State was a month ago, this is precisely the “drop in class” (in terms of the opponent) that they need in Albuquerque right now. 

The home team will also be highly motivated come Saturday night. Not just to end their four-game losing streak in 2021, but also to end a 10-game losing streak to CSU. This is what you need to know - every win New Mexico has had in the L3 seasons has come at Dreamstyle Stadium. Colorado State only averages 22.4 PPG and this is their first time favored on the road since they lost by 21 at Fresno State in LY’s opener. UNM is obviously due to cover and this is probably the most opportune time to take them all season. Take the points. 10* New Mexico

10* Bruno Silva (6:15 ET): This is the headline fight on the prelims, which air on ESPN+. It’s a Middleweight fight (185 lbs) scheduled for three rounds. Silva is 20-6 overall and won his only UFC fight while Andrew Sanchez comes in 12-6 overall and 5-4 in the UFC. I think the talented prospect Silva continues his rise up the MW ladder and gets his hand raised Saturday evening.

Silva comes into Fight Night 195 on a five-fight win streak. All five wins have been by TKO/KO, four of them coming in the first round. His UFC debut was delayed due to failing a drug test, but finally Silva got to step inside the Octagon in June and he made quick work of Wellington Turman. Silva actually found himself on the ground early in that fight, but only for a short time and I attribute that to it being his first fight in nearly three years. Don’t expect him to be taken down at all in this fight. 

I say that because Sanchez is someone who is willing to stand and trade shots, whether it’s working in his favor or not. It is highly unlikely that such an approach will pay off here. Last August, it was his turn to stop Turman in the first round. But that was Sanchez’s first KO victory in almost eight years! He followed that up by losing to a flying knee against Makhmud Muradov in January. That was Sanchez’s second loss in his last three fights and fourth in his last seven. He’s tailor-made for another quick Silva win. 10* Bruno Silva

8* Over Purdue/Iowa (3:30 ET): There’s only one team left that has yet to go Over in a single game this season and that’s Purdue (5-0 Under), who is coming off a bye and will have its toughest game yet this weekend as they visit Iowa City to face the unbeaten Hawkeyes. Iowa is having a dream season thus far. Fueled by a +15 turnover differential (#1 in the country), they are 6-0 SU and ranked #2 in the polls. They are off a spirited, come from behind win over Penn State (in what was a matchup of two top five teams). With them in a bit of a letdown spot, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Hawkeyes give up more points than usual this week. 

Purdue had no problem scoring in their first two games. They opened with a 30-21 win over Oregon State, then a 49-0 beatdown of hideous UConn. But since that time, the Boilermakers have been held to just 13 points in three consecutive games. One of those was a win, at home vs. Illinois, but they lost to both Notre Dame and Minnesota. The totals keep getting lower each week and now I think we’re at the point where there’s a great value in bucking their Under trend. The Boilermakers did put up 448 yards in their last game, so scoring only 13 points was a major disappointment. Inefficiency in the red zone really cost them. 

The Boilermakers’ offense is healthier than it’s been at any point this season and a QB change was made prior to the Minnesota game. Aiden O’Connell (357 yards vs. Minnesota) looked a lot better than the inconsistent Jack Plummer. Purdue will need to be firing on all cylinders against the Iowa defense and I do believe they’ll score a surprising number of points here. They beat Iowa last year 24-20 in West Lafayette. The Hawkeyes have scored at least 23 in every game this season, so if Purdue gets to 20 (and I think they can!), then this will be an easy Over. Iowa’s L2 games both did go Over the total. 8* Over Purdue/Iowa

8* Under Pitt/Va Tech (3:30 ET): There has been a tremendous amount of upheaval in the ACC this season with preseason favorites like North Carolina, Miami and Clemson (!) all losing two or more times before we even hit the second weekend of October. The league has only two ranked teams, one of them undefeated Wake Forest (the other is NC State), but don’t discount a Pitt team that should be considered the favorite right now to win the Coastal Division. The Panthers are 4-1 (only loss to Western Michigan!) and averaging a FBS high 52.4 PPG. They are one of just two teams to be 5-0 Over entering the weekend. 

But this week, the Panthers should encounter some resistance as they head to Blacksburg to face Virginia Tech. From a situational perspective, the spot looks great for the road team. They are off a bye while Va Tech is off a close loss to Notre Dame. But I definitely see Pitt’s lofty scoring average coming down over the next few weeks. Va Tech is giving up just 18.6 PPG on the year and every game except Notre Dame stayed Under the total. Until the final four minutes, they had held the Fighting Irish to just 21 points. Last week was the first Va Tech game this year to feature more than 50 total pts scored. 

Pitt has played some terrible teams like UMass and New Hampshire. They scored 77 against the latter, which is a big reason why their season average is so high. This total is right in line with the oddsmakers’ projections for all of the Panthers’ previous games, so the market sees no reason to react to the shocking amount of scoring we’ve seen thus far from Pat Narduzzi’s team. The Under is 4-0 in their last four trips to Blacksburg and I’m not sure either team gets to 30 points in this one. 8* Under Pitt/Va Tech

8* Under Western Kentucky/Old Dominion (3:30 ET): WKU is the only other team besides Pitt to have a perfect 5-0 Over record. My mindset should be pretty obvious with this totals report as I think these streaks are due to come to an end. The Hilltoppers, who have been involved in nothing but shootouts thus far, are off a heartbreaking 52-46 home loss to unbeaten UTSA last week. This week’s opponent, Old Dominion, is nowhere near as prolific as UTSA or most other previous WKU opponents. This should be the Hilltoppers’ best defensive performance since holding Tenn Martin to 21 points in the season opener. 

Or it could end up being even better than that! Old Dominion, like WKU, is off to poor start to the 2021 season. The Monarchs are 1-5 SU with the lone win coming against FCS Hampton. Take that win away and they’ve averaged only 19 PPG. They were held to just 13 points last week in Marshall, the third straight loss by seven points or less. That game ended up going to overtime. ODU led 10-6 with just under three minutes in regulation. Even with just 314 yards last week, it wasn’t even ODU’s worst effort in total offense this season as Liberty held them to 201 yards and UTEP held them to 282. This will be the highest total for any ODU game so far this season. 

I do not expect Western Kentucky to be able to run the ball at all in this game. The Hilltoppers come in averaging only 93 YPG on the ground at 3.9 YPC. On the road, those averages drop to 57 YPG on 2.5 YPC. It just so happens that Old Dominion has done a great job stopping the run at home, allowing only 2.7 yards per carry. The Monarchs have allowed only one opponent - Liberty - to gain 400 total yards. Four of their games have seen 54 or less total points scored while only one has exceeded 62 points. 8* Under Western Kentucky/Old Dominion

7* Borussia Monchengladbach (12:30 ET): These are two mid-table sides in the Bundesliga with Gladbach hosting Stuttgart. Both teams have a -1 goal differential. But the hosts are two points ahead based on the fact they have three wins and only one draw whereas Stuttgart has two wins and two draws. Both have three losses. The picture I’ve painted (thus far) may not point to Gladbach having any kind of huge advantage Saturday, but the oddsmakers sure think they do and I’m inclined to agree with their assessment.

After a slow start to the season, Gladbach has seemingly “turned the proverbial corner” by winning three of its last four fixtures. Right before the International Break, they downed Wolfsburg by a score of 3-1, which was perhaps their most impressive win to date. Or maybe it was the 1-0 win over Dortmund the week prior. Either way, Gladbach has conceded only three times in the last four matches and in terms of goals scored, I expect them to pick up the pace moving forward.

Stuttgart also won its last Bundesliga fixture 3-1 as they beat Hoffenheim. But before that it was a poor run of form for VFB as they’d picked just two points from five matches. That run included a bad 4-0 loss to Leipzig and perhaps equally embarrassing 0-0 draw with Bochum (who is 2nd from the bottom). During the Int’l Break, Stuttgart played a friendly with second tier side Sandhausen and shockingly lost 4-1. So that’s not going to do wonders for their confidence as they hit the road, where they’ve yet to win this season. Look for the home team to get all three points in this one. 7* Borussia Monchengladbach

8* Missouri (12:00 ET): Well, this is certainly the ultimate “letdown” spot for A&M isn’t it? Last week, I called it a “great buy low spot” on the Aggies, who were coming off B2B losses (after previously winning 11 in a row) and getting a ton of points at home. Well, wouldn’t you know they went out and pulled the biggest upset of the College Football season, beating top-ranked Alabama 41-38. It’s now a completely different situation this week as Jimbo Fisher’s team must guard against overconfidence as they hit the road to face Missouri, a conference opponent they haven’t faced in awhile. Gotta fade this week. 

Both of these schools moved from the Big 12 to the SEC in 2012. They faced off in 2013 & ‘14 w/ Mizzou winning both games. Going back to their Big 12 days, the Tigers have won five of the previous six matchups! This is A&M’s first trip to Columbia since that initial SEC meeting in 2013. Now when the Aggies arrive they may find a fanbase that’s bordering on destitution. That’s because Mizzou has not covered a single spread in 2021 and is on an 0-8 ATS run dating back to last season. That’s the longest active ATS losing streak in the country. 

Why would I be interested in taking the Tigers then? Well, in addition to this being the ultimate letdown spot for A&M and Mizzou being “just plain due,” this is the most points the Tigers have gotten in any game this season and the first time they are a home dog. Two of their losses have been by seven points (one in OT at Boston College). They led by 27 in the 4Q LW at home vs. North Texas and should have covered that game (were -18.5). I bought low on A&M last week, now it’s time to “sell high” on them and buy low on the opposition. Take the points. 8* Missouri

10* Texas (12:00 ET): They say “everything is bigger” down in Texas and in the case of my top Big XII selection for the 2021 College Football season, that is certainly the case. Obviously, the Longhorns really let one “slip away” last week in the Red River Rivalry. They led Oklahoma 28-7 after 1Q, 38-20 at half and 41-30 after the 3Q. They lost 55-48. As an added “kick in the teeth,” they didn’t even cover the pointspread. Despite that being their second loss of the season, I still believe the Longhorns can be a Top 10 team by season’s end. Love them this week as my power ratings say this should be a double digit spread!

It’s another unbeaten team from the state of Oklahoma that UT is facing this week. This time it’s Oklahoma State, who is 5-0 SU and coming off a bye. In all due respect to Mike Gundy’s team, they are no Oklahoma. The Cowboys have lived dangerously the first month of the season, winning every game by 11 points or less and three of those wins were by a total of 13 points. They trailed in three of the five wins, barely outgained a FCS team and were down entering the 4Q vs. Tulsa. They were down double digits to Boise State in their only previous road game.

That last sentence brings me to another difference between this and last week for Texas - this game takes place in Austin where they are a perfect 3-0 ATS in 2021. Also, just to reiterate the drop in class when it comes to the opposition, I (like everyone else) consider Oklahoma a top six team in the country. The pollsters may have OK State at #12 entering this week, but they don’t even make my Top 35! It speaks volumes that the unranked team is favored here. A few weeks ago, when discussing Va Tech-WVU, I talked about how well unranked favorites tend to do ATS when hosting Top 25 opponents. Lay the points here as OK State’s unbeaten run will come to an end. 10* Texas

10* San Jose State (10:30 ET): The abbreviated 2020 College Football season saw San Jose State come out of nowhere to win its first conference title since 1984! The Spartans upset Boise State in the MWC Championship Game and took an unbeaten record (7-0 SU!) into the Arizona Bowl. That’s when I struck. My 10* College Football Game of the Year was not only on their bowl opponent, Ball State +9, but SJSU ended up losing that game outright 34-13. Needless to say, that was one of my biggest wins EVER.

This year SJSU (19 returning starters) went from the hunter to the hunted and things have not gone as well. They’re 3-3 SU through six weeks and while they’ve won every game they were supposed to win (3-0 SU as favorites), they’re 0-5 ATS L5 games. Last week may have been their worst game since the Arizona Bowl as they turned it over three times and were beaten 32-14 at Colorado State. It may seem like a strange time to jump on board, but this Friday marks the 1st game in 2021 that the Spartans have been installed as home underdogs. I really like the spot. They haven’t lost a home game since 2019. 

It seems as if things have almost come full circle as SJSU will be welcoming in the last remaining unbeaten in the Mountain West, San Diego State. The Aztecs are 5-0 SU with a couple upset wins over Pac 12 schools (Arizona & Utah). But they were outgained twice, in the OT win over Utah and by New Mexico State (!). This is just their second road game. They are ranked #24 by the AP & the Coaches, but they barely scratch my top 75 and are easily the lowest rated of the 13 remaining unbeatens. San Jose State was on a 6-2 ATS run as a conference dog before running into a rested opponent last week. After the turnovers, Colorado State only had to move the ball 37 yards to get nine crucial points. Playing host to an unbeaten team, on a short week, is a much different scenario. Take the points. 10* San Jose State

8* Clemson (7:00 ET): The last three weeks have seen Syracuse host two unbeaten teams. The first, which was Liberty, left with a loss. The second was Wake Forest last Saturday. That game went to overtime, but this time the Orange came up a little short, losing 40-37 on the scoreboard. But they did leave with the cash as 5.5-point underdogs. It was their fourth straight game covering the spread and they are now 5-1 ATS overall on the season. (Only ATS loss was to Rutgers). 

It’s certainly surprising that Clemson isn’t the third straight unbeaten to visit the Carrier Dome. Even more shocking is that Dabo Swinney’s team has already lost TWICE, once to Georgia (that’s fine) and then in overtime at NC State (not that bad). Even after rebounding two weeks ago against Boston College (won 19-14), the Tigers are 0-5 ATS. They are one of just three FBS teams to be winless against the spread. I know that the offense has lacked “pop.” But coming out of a bye, this is a GREAT buy low spot. 

While Clemson is rested, Syracuse is coming off three consecutive games that were decided by three points. Eventually that’s got to wear a team down. Normally, the Orange would be “up” for a visit from the ACC’s resident stalwart, but this time I think they are ripe for the picking. After spending one week out of the Top 25 (first time since 2014), Clemson should be ready to go on a run. They are still in the Top 10 in my power ratings and must be respected. We’re getting a discount here. Trust me. Lay the points. 8* Clemson

10* LA Dodgers (9:07 ET): The Dodgers are simply better than the Giants. I’m sure that doesn’t sit well with those in the Bay Area, but let’s look at the facts. The Dodgers had a better run differential in the regular season (+269 to +210) and - despite being shut out TWICE - they have outscored the Giants in this series 16-9. It’s been an incredible season for SF as they exceeded their regular season win projection by 30+ games and turned a massive profit at the betting window (+46.9 units). But I’ve got them rated as the #2 team. They got dealt a “tough hand,” having to face the #1 team in the LDS. 

For this winner take all Game 5, both teams are sending out their most profitable starter. For the Giants, that’s Logan Webb, who has a 22-5 team start record including 13-0 at home. The fact Webb is unbeaten at home this season and threw 7 ⅔ shutout innings in Game 1 will make him a tough “fade” in the eyes of most. But I just cannot see him beating the Dodgers again. Webb has a 4-0 TSR in ‘21 vs. LA, though twice he did not factor into the decision. The Dodgers led the NL in runs scored this year. They are due to break through against Webb. 

Making me feel MUCH better about fading Webb is the fact the Dodgers are giving the baseball to Julio Urias. MLB’s only 20-game winner, Urias has a 27-6 TSR and the team has won the last 12 times he’s been on the mound! The Dodgers haven’t just scored more runs than the Giants this season, they’ve also allowed less. Incredibly, they have outscored opponents on the road by 1.6 rpg. This is a club that’s been a ML dog in two games all year. It’s not often you get the best team in baseball at this price. You have to take them. 10* LA Dodgers

10* Philadelphia (8:20 ET): The road team has gone 5-0 ATS on Thursday Night Football this season, but only 2-3 straight up. Obviously, most are anticipating that SU record will be “squared away” after tonight as the Bucs visit the Eagles. But the Super Bowl Champs best be careful here as Philly is coming off a SU win (I had ‘em!) last week in Carolina. As I said in my analysis for that game, the Eagles have actually outgained their opponents - on a per play and per game basis - despite the losing record. 

Certainly, the score of last week’s Bucs game will only further attract more bettors to them. They won 45-17 with Tom Brady throwing for 400+ yards and five touchdowns. But they were facing a terrible Miami team, who I have rated dead last in the league in my own personal power ratings. Two of Tampa's other three victories this season have been by just two points. They’ve not fared well on TNF previously, going just 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS. That includes the season opener vs. Dallas where they won 31-29, but did not cover as nine-point chalk. 

The Eagles are 0-2 SU/ATS at home thus far, so you know they’re going to be highly motivated to win in front of their fans for the first time under HC Nick Sirianni. It’s not often you get them in this price range, but they are 8-1 ATS the L9 times they’ve been a dog of 7.5 or more points with five outright wins. QB Hurts did not play great last week against a good Carolina defense, but did throw for a career-high 387 yards in his last home game. Here he'll be facing a banged-up Bucs secondary that has given up the most passing yardage in the league. 10* Philadelphia

8* Memphis (7:30 ET): What has happened to Memphis? Since pulling off a somewhat miraculous 31-29 win against Mississippi State last month, the Tigers have lost three straight games - by a total of 12 points. They were favored in two of the losses - home vs. UTSA and at Temple. Both of those games saw them blow 17+ point leads. Last week in Tulsa, the Tigers outgained their opponents by nearly 200 yards, but that was wiped away by a -3 turnover differential and they lost on the scoreboard 35-29 as a 3.5-point underdog. Needless to say, they are glad to be back at the Liberty Bowl where they’ve won 17 of 18. 

Save for a shocking 34-30 upset over UCF, who was starting a backup QB, Navy has mostly been a sinking ship in 2021. The Middies are 1-4 SU and coming off a tough 31-24 loss to unbeaten SMU. While they led by as many as two touchdowns in the 2Q, Navy was outgained in the game 404-241. This offense has simply not been clicking the way it used to as the Midshipmen are averaging only 3.7 yards per carry and 282.6 total yards per game. This will be just the second time Ken Niumatalolo’s team has had to “set sail” from Annapolis this season. I don’t like the spot for them.

Had they not rallied with 17 4Q points against UCF, then Navy would be 0-5. Memphis’ one loss at Liberty Bowl in the last 18 tries came the last time they were here, against UTSA, whom they led 21-0 early. I certainly can’t see the Tigers dropping B2B home games and will lay the points here as they’ve outgained their L3 opponents despite being 0-3 SU/ATS! The problem is they were -7 in TO’s in those three games. They gained over 600 yards of total offense last week. Navy is 3-0 ATS its L3 games, but they’ve been a dog of 13 or more points every time. Pardon another pun, but the Midshipmen are lacking in the necessary “firepower” here. 8* Memphis

10* Over Giants/Dodgers (9:07 ET): The Giants have now shut the Dodgers out twice in this series, including last night’s thrilling 1-0 victory that has them on the cusp of their first NLCS since 2014. But I think it’s rather reasonable to expect the Dodgers to have a bounce back game offensively. They are 10-2 the L3 seasons following a shutout loss, including 5-1 in 2021. After being shutout in Game 1 of this series, we all saw them bounce back with nine runs in a Game 2 victory. Whether or not a bounce back night at the plate is enough to win Game 4 remains to be seen though as I think the Giants are also in line for an increase in offense this evening. 

We know that the Giants are going with Anthony DeSclafani as their starter for tonight’s game. DeSclafani may have had a strong regular season overall, but he struggled when facing the Dodgers. He is 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA in six starts vs. LA this year. One of those six starts saw him give up 10 runs in just 2 ⅔ innings. Another saw him serve up three home runs. DeSclafani’s regular season did end with a streak of six straight Unders. But that is probably due to end here as the Over was 4-2 the L6 times he has faced the Dodgers. 

The Dodgers have not yet officially confirmed their Game 4 starter. It could be Tony Gonsolin or it could be Walker Buehler (who started Game 1). Regardless, this play on the Over is “action,” no matter who ends up starting for the home team. The big story from last night was the 15 MPH wind, which obviously favored the pitchers. Assuming it’s a “normal night” in LA, we won’t have to worry about that again. These were the two highest scoring teams in the NL during the regular season. My play on the Under last night couldn’t have gone any better, but tonight it’s time to take the Over. 10* Over Giants/Dodgers

10* Under Giants/Dodgers (9:37 ET): The Dodgers have to be feeling pretty good about this series right now. They won Game 2 in San Francisco and now head home where they are 59-23 this season. No team has more wins at home this year. For Game 3, they will be sending Max Scherzer out the hill. Since acquiring him from Washington at the trade deadline, the Dodgers are 12-0 when Scherzer starts including the win over St. Louis in the Wild Card Game. As you’d expect, Scherzer has been pretty dominant since donning Dodger Blue. He’s allowed 2 ER or less in 10 of those 12 starts. 

But the Giants can’t be discounted here. They were the only team to win more games than the Dodgers in the regular season, which is why they had the homefield advantage for this series.That’s now gone, but the fact they give up only 3.5 runs per game on the road should not be discounted. Only Milwaukee allowed less runs this year away from home. Alex Wood will get the start tonight and not only did he post a 1.38 ERA and 0.692 WHIP in his L3 starts, all Giants wins, but the Under has cashed in each of his L6 starts. Wood hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in any of those six outings. Remember the Dodgers were shutout in Game 1 of this series. 

As good as the Giants have been at run suppression this year, the Dodgers are even stingier when they’re the home team as they give up only 3.3 rpg at Chavez Ravine. That’s tied (w/ Tampa Bay) for the lowest average by any home team. Opposing hitters are batting just .208 for the year here! I know Scherzer had two rocky starts at the end of the regular season (one was in Colorado) and an abbreviated outing in the WC Game. But I have full confidence in him and the Dodgers’ bullpen, which limited the Giants to just three hits in Game 2 and also shut down the Cardinals after Scherzer departed last Wednesday. 10* Under Giants/Dodgers

8* Over Brewers/Braves (1:07 ET): Runs have been scarce so far in this series with only three scored in both games. All three went to the Braves in Game 2 as they evened this LDS up 1-1. (Milwaukee won Game 1, 2-1). But with the series now shifting to Atlanta, you can look for the amount of scoring to go up. It’s rare that I’d say a team might be HAPPY to get away from home, but with Milwaukee it might just be the case. As is the case with Atlanta, the Brew Crew have a better record on the road than they do at home.

One of the reasons the Brewers have been better on the road is that their scoring average jumps to 4.8 runs per game.. That’s a half-run more per game than what they average at American Family Field. So after REALLY struggling at the plate in the first two games, look for the bats to come alive in Game 3 vs. Ian Anderson. The Over was 6-2 in Anderson’s home starts for the Braves. He posted a 4.41 ERA and 1.413 WHIP his L7 starts. The Braves allowed significantly more runs at home than they did on the road in the regular season. 

As of press time, Milwaukee had yet to officially name a Game 3 starter. There’s a good chance it will be Freddy Peralta. Regardless of who toes the rubber, this Over play does stand. If it is Peralta, take note that he struggled a bit down the stretch, posting a 4.70 ERA in five September starts. He has not started since 9/26. The Brewers did allow only 3.4 rpg on the road in the regular season, but Peralta isn’t their best option and the Braves average 5.0 at home. It’s time this series saw a high-scoring game. 8* Over Brewers/Braves

9* Buffalo (8:20 ET): The Bills have a serious claim to being the league’s top team right now as they have a +90 point differential, which is #1 overall and the second best point differential through four games in franchise history (only the ‘92 Super Bowl team was better). They are just the second team since the merger to post two shutout victories by at least 30 points (the great ‘91 Washington team is the other) in the first four weeks of the season. Yes, they’ve beaten up on some bad teams. But this week, they have the chance to prove themselves on a national stage in a big revenge spot. I think they get it done. 

This is pretty clearly not the same Chiefs team that we saw make the Super Bowl each of the last two years. A defense that’s 31st in scoring and 32nd in yards per play is pretty difficult to overcome, even if you have Patrick Mahomes. Not to mention the entire starting offensive line is different from 2020. The defense allowed 29+ points in every game so far and really struggles in the red zone, which is huge for a Buffalo offense that would have even more points if not for settling for nine field goals in 21 RZ opportunities. Meanwhile, Mahomes faces a stiff test this week going up against the league’s #1 scoring defense, which has allowed just 21 points in the L3 games (all to Washington) & is #1 in yards per play. 

Truthfully, Kansas City was “playing with fire” last season as they were a ridiculously lucky 9-0 SU in games decided by six points or less. Given that record, it’s not really a surprise to see the team regressing somewhat in 2021.  Before last week’s 42-30 win in Philadelphia, the Chiefs had covered just two of its previous 14 games. There’s also a revenge angle in play Sunday night as the Bills lost twice to the Chiefs last season, including in the AFC Championship Game. Revenge is one thing, but the Bills are simply better than the Chiefs right now with an obviously massive edge on the defensive side of the ball. Take the points. 9* Buffalo

10* Chi White Sox (8:05 ET): The White Sox are facing the possibility of being swept here as this is the lone LDS where the teams did not split the first two games. But now the series moves to Chicago where the Sox are 53-28 this year. They had the third most home victories during the regular season (Dodgers, Giants) and the most in the American League. I just can’t see them being swept.

Tony LaRussa did not get good starts from either Lance Lynn or Lucas Giolito in the first two games of this series. But I think the White Sox skipper is wise to put his faith in Dylan Cease for Game 3. Cease had a strong close to the regular season, going 2-0 over his L3 starts with a 0.63 ERA and 1.047 WHIP. He allowed just one run in 14 ⅓ IP. He also had 24 strikeouts during that time. Like most other White Sox starters, Cease had better numbers at home compared to on the road. White Sox pitching has limited the opposition to a .215 average for the year here on the Southside. 

The White Sox actually outhit the Astros in Game 2. The problem is they fell prey to one big inning from the Astros. Houston was also 6 for 11 with RISP while Chicago was 2 for 11 in that situation. Another problem is that all 18 White Sox hits in this series have been singles. I look for some “bigger” hits tonight against the Astros’ Luis Garcia, who has a 4.24 ERA and 1.336 WHIP on the road. Going back to the final game of the regular season, the White Sox have lost three straight. But they are 5-0 the L5 times they’ve been on a three-game skid. 10* Chi White Sox

10* Over Broncos/Steelers (1:00 ET): Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater suffered a concussion in last week’s loss to the Ravens and did not practice Wednesday. He is questionable to play here, which means it could be Drew Lock starting in his place. Lock’s career ATS record (11-7) pales in comparison to that of Bridgewater (who is 38-15 ATS as a starter), so that would be a downgrade going up against what is still regarded as a very good defense in Pittsburgh. But that Steelers’ defense is also pretty banged up at the moment. 

Denver’s 3-0 SU start came against teams that are currently a combined 2-10 SU (Giants, Jets, Jags). They were somewhat exposed in last week’s 23-7 loss to the Ravens. I find it interesting though that the Broncos, who were the only team in the league not to be favored in a single game last season, could end up being favorites for a fifth consecutive week here. They are in a much better position than Pittsburgh, who has lost three in a row after opening the season with an upset win in Buffalo that now feels like a distant memory. The Steelers look like they could be headed for their 1st losing season under Mike Tomlin. 

There are only four teams in the league that are 4-0 Under and these are two of them. Given that, the injuries and “iffy” QB situations on both sides (Big Ben has been BAD), I understand why this O/U is so low. But I feel it’s too low. You’re just not going to see many NFL totals of 40.0 or lower this season. Two of the Steelers’ last three games would have exceeded this total. Look for this game to sneak Over the total, somehow, someway. Both teams have key injuries in the secondary. 10* Over Broncos/Steelers

10* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): Since opening the season with an impressive 32-6 beatdown of Atlanta, the Eagles have yet to win again. They’ll arrive in Carolina Sunday on a three-game losing streak - both SU and ATS. The last two losses saw them matched up against a couple of the league’s premier teams, Dallas and Kansas City. The Jalen Hurts led offense put up lots of yards and a decent amount of points in those games, but it obviously wasn’t enough either time. Here, they’ll be matched up with a banged up Panthers team that’s coming off its first loss of 2021. I smell “upset,” so take the points. 

I’d say that the biggest issue in Philly right now is a defense that’s allowed the second most rush yards in the league. But that unit catches a break here as Panther starting Guard Pat Elflien is on IR and Tackle Cam Erving is not expected to play. So even if RB Christian McCaffery does return from his own injury, he’ll be operating behind a line that’s down both starters on the left side. I’m still not sold on QB Sam Darnold, even though he led Carolina to a 3-0 start. Remember two of those wins were against the Jets and Texans. Facing those type of teams is why the Panthers entered last week #1 in total defense. But as we saw they got shredded by Dallas (433 yds allowed) in a 36-28 loss. 

Clearly, the Eagles are not as good or potent offensively as the Cowboys are. But Hurts is coming off B2B games with 300 yards passing, including a career-high 387 last week. The team has outgained its opponents - on a per game and per play basis - despite the 1-3 SU start.  Last week, they had to face the Chiefs on a short week and still it was a one possession game in the 4Q. Carolina’s is banged up on BOTH sides of the ball as they just put two defensive starters on IR and LB Shaq Thompson has been ruled out as well. 10* Philadelphia

9* New Orleans (1:00 ET): For most of last week, it appeared as if the Saints were headed for a victory and Washington was headed for a loss. But instead, the opposite happened. New Orleans shockingly blew a double digit 4Q lead at home and lost in OT to the Giants, 27-21. Meanwhile, Washington came from behind to defeat Atlanta 34-30. What I’m going to do here is use those surprising results to my advantage and take what I feel is an undervalued Saints team on the road this week. Lay the points. 

The underdog is 6-2 ATS in these two teams’ games this season. That includes 4-0 in Saints’ games. New Orleans has definitely taken an unconventional path to 2-2 SU as they’ve won both times they were dogs (Green Bay, New England) but lost outright both times as favorites (Carolina, Giants). Washington has been favored three times this year, but the only time they covered in that role was last week in Atlanta. The one time they were an underdog, they got blown out 43-21 in Buffalo. 

Washington’s two wins have been by five total points and came against the Falcons and Giants, two teams that are a combined 2-6 SU right now. They’ve got a backup QB (Taylor Heinicke) under center and the defense isn’t playing anywhere near the level it did last year. Making matters worse, two defensive starters were lost for the season last week. There are also key injuries on offense. The Saints’ offense has obviously fallen off somewhat without Drew Brees, but the defense remains elite, allowing just 66 YPG rushing on 3.1 YPC. I can’t see Heinicke single-handedly leading a Washington upset here. The Saints are a fantastic 30-12 ATS L42 road games. 9* New Orleans

10* Under Dodgers/Giants (9:07 ET): The Dodgers ended the regular season on a 5-0 Over run. But as everyone knows, the MLB postseason is a different animal. They’ve been held to just three runs in two games and were shutout last night, 4-0 by the Giants, in Game 1 of the NLDS. Takeaway the walkoff HR in the Wild Card Game Tuesday and Los Angeles has scored only one run in the L2 games. With just five hits last night, it was pretty clear they missed 1B Max Muncy (who is out with a dislocated elbow). Despite the Dodgers’ vaunted reputation, I don’t necessarily see them bouncing back at the plate in Game 2. 

One thing the visitors shouldn’t have to worry about tonight is their starting pitching. Julio Urias has been on fire down the stretch. He was the majors’ only 20-game winner in the regular season and has an 11-0 team start record his L11 trips to the mound with a 1.77 ERA! Urias has faced the Giants five times in 2021 and held them to 2 ER or less on four of those occasions. He’s allowed a total of only three runs the last three times he faced them. The Giants are also without their starting 1B, Brandon Belt, so they too have a weaker lineup than usual right now. The Under is 6-1-1 in Urias’ previous eight starts. 

Kevin Gausman may not be able to match Urias’ gaudy WL record, but he does have a 21-12 TSR for the Giants to go along with a 2.81 ERA and 1.036 WHIP. That’s a lower ERA than Urias has. The Dodgers could only manage three singles and two doubles last night. Over the past nine games, the Giants’ staff has allowed a total of just 21 runs and posted three shutouts. So look for this to be a low-scoring Game 2. The Dodgers are 9-1 Under off their L10 losses and could not score more than three runs off Gausman any of the three times they faced him in the regular season. 10* Under Dodgers/Giants

8* Memphis (9:00 ET): After pulling out a somewhat miraculous 31-29 win at Mississippi State three weeks ago, the worm has really turned against Memphis. They’ve lost two straight, blowing 17+ point leads in both games. I can’t decide which “choke job” was more shocking. Was it the one at home against UTSA where they up 21-0 after one quarter and never trailed until the final play? Or was it last week where they were 11-point favorites over a bad Temple team? Regardless what the correct answer is, I see the Tigers bouncing back this week against a Tulsa team that should NOT be laying points.

Tulsa is 1-4 SU and just got handed its lunch by Houston last Thursday. It was 28-0 early in the 2Q and ended up being a 45-10 final. I can understand the Golden Hurricane getting a little respect here as they did cover at both Oklahoma State and Ohio State. But they also lost outright at home to FCS Cal Davis in the season opener. They did not play Memphis in 2020, but have lost the last three head to head matchups (2017-19) by an average of 18 PPG. Again, I just don’t see how they’re favored here.

Last year snapped Memphis’ three-year streak of AAC Championship Game appearances. The loss to UTSA ended a 17-game win streak at the Liberty Bowl. But they are still a stronger team than Tulsa. They’ve led for 104 of the 120 minutes the L2 games, yet somehow managed to go 0-2. I think this is a “get right” game. They’ve scored 31 or more points in all five games and could easily be 5-0. Tulsa has topped 23 points in only one game thus far and that just won’t cut it here. 8* Memphis

8* Texas A&M (8:00 ET): A&M had an 11-game win streak (going back to last season, obviously) snapped two weeks ago by Arkansas. Then they lost again last week to Mississippi State. Now they must face top-ranked Alabama this Saturday night at Kyle Field. Things have definitely turned in College Station, but with “the world” figuring to be on ‘Bama in this one, I think this is a great “buy low” spot on the Aggies, who are at home and getting a ton of points. They are still a Top 20 team in my eyes.

Running through Alabama’s credentials would probably only serve to dissuade your interest in the other side, so I’ll refrain from doing so here. It is interesting though that the public had some doubt in Nick Saban’s team going into last week’s game with Ole Miss. Now they’re back on the Bama train. Coming into the season, this was thought to be the Crimson Tide’s toughest regular season matchup. I know A&M is dealing with some key injuries, but should bettors really be writing them off to this degree? 

Zach Calzada will make his 4th start at QB for Texas A&M. The offense has definitely suffered since Haynes King broke his leg against Colorado, but I think the Aggies can put enough points on the board here to stay within the number. Defensively, they’ve yet to allow more than 26 points in any game this season. I’m sure they’ll allow more than that here, but it is worth noting they allow fewer PPG than does the Bama defense. Bama’s defense struggled in its only other “true” road game, giving up 29 points and 440 yards to Florida. Take the points. 8* Texas A&M

8* LSU (7:30 ET): LSU is 3-2 SU on the year and coming off a 24-19 loss to Auburn, which prompted HC Ed Orgeron to come out and take “responsibility” for the ongoing woes in the Bayou. This program is just two years removed from winning the National Championship, but has gone just 8-7 SU since. With last week marking the first of six consecutive games against teams currently ranked in the Top 25, Orgeron better get this figured out quick. This week, the Tigers are road underdogs to a 5-0 Kentucky team.

But UK is a bit fortunate to still be unbeaten in my view. They squeaked by Florida last week, 20-13, despite the Gators running NINE plays inside the 20-yard line in the final minute. It was the Wildcats’ first time beating Florida at home in 35 years, so this week is a bit of a letdown spot even though it’s LSU coming to town. Mark Stoops’ team was outgained 382-224 last week and it was their fourth straight win by seven points or less. Eventually, lady luck runs out on you. For UK, I think that time will be this week.

For what it’s worth, LSU led Auburn for most of the game last week. They only trailed for the final 3:11. It was a 13-point lead in the 2Q and nine-point lead entering the 4Q. This looks to be a great buy low spot as my power rankings say the Tigers should be the favorites in this one, even on the road. Kentucky now goes from the hunter to the hunted and I just can’t see an LSU team that’s been favored in every game thus far dropping to 3-3 SU. They are 10-3 ATS L13 as underdogs and 6-1 ATS L7 off an ATS loss. Take the points.  8* LSU

10* Troy (7:00 ET): Troy is coming off B2B losses and because of that, I think we’re getting a pretty solid value this week. Both losses took place on the road, the first being a real shocker vs. LA Monroe, a game Troy was favored to win by 23.5 points and had a 378-290 edge in total yards. Yet somehow they lost 29-16. Then came a game effort last week at South Carolina, but four turnovers proved to be the Trojans’ undoing there. The most costly TO was a “pick-six” in the final minute of the 1st half. Troy actually finished with more first downs than the Gamecocks (21-19), but that was little consolation in a 23-14 defeat as 6.5-point dogs.

I’m expecting a lot better performance from Chip Lindsey’s team this week as they return home to face Georgia Southern. Not only are the Trojans looking to square away their record at 3-3 SU this season, but they’re playing with revenge for a 20-13 loss last year in Statesboro where they were three-point favorites. This is Lindsey’s third year here and he’s still looking to return the program to the level of 2017-19 when the Trojans won 10+ games every year under Neal Brown. In the first home game in nearly a month, this is pretty close to “must win” for Lindsey.

Ga Southern just ended a three-game losing streak last week with a 59-33 win over Arkansas State. It was their first game under interim HC Kevin Whitley as Chad Lunsford was fired after a 1-3 start. It was somewhat of a misleading home win for Whitley and the Eagles as total yardage was even but they were +4 in turnovers. Both times Ga Southern has been asked to go on the road, they’ve lost by 30+ points. This is a one-dimensional team on offense and defensively they rank 114th in the country in scoring. Troy is 22nd in the country in scoring defense, allowing only 17 PPG. All signs point to a big Troy win here. 10* Troy. 

9* Southern Miss (7:00 ET): Yes, I know that Southern Miss is down to its third string QB. Freshman Jake Lange made his first career start last week against Rice and threw three interceptions while also being sacked five times. That’s to be expected with a freshman, but what impressed me is that Lange did throw for 300+ yards. Unless there’s been some sort of “football renaissance” down in El Paso that I’m unaware of, I don’t understand why UTEP is now favored in this one (other than people are scared of a backup QB). I’m taking the points. 

UTEP is 4-1 SU. How shocking is that record? Well, from 2017-20, the Miners won just five games total! Three of them came last season, but two were against FCS opponents. Incredibly, coming into 2021, this program had just two FBS wins under HC Dana Dimel. They’ve already topped that number this season (with 3), but two were against the “New Mexico teams” (both of whom stink) and then last week the Miners needed a late TD to top Old Dominion at home. I really can’t see this team moving to 5-1 SU. 

Southern Miss has dominated this C-USA rivalry, winning five straight meetings and covering three of the last four. They’ve outgained UTEP in all 10 meetings as conference opponents, by an average of 188 YPG! UTEP hasn’t been within 120 yards in any of those 10 games. Also, the Miners are 0-9 SU their L9 C-USA road games, so I just can’t see why anyone would put this much faith in them. They had fewer first downs than ODU did last week. 9* Southern Miss

8* Mackenzie Dern (5:50 ET): This is your main event of the evening, which means we’re scheduled for five rounds. But I’d be surprised if it went that long. Dern is 11-1 overall and 6-1 in the UFC. She faces Marina Rodriguez, who is 14-1-2 overall and 4-1-2 in the UFC. The winner here will move themselves closer to a title fight here in the Strawweight Division (115 lbs) and pretty clearly it should be Dern getting her hand raised. Don’t be surprised if this one ends quickly. 

Since suffering her lone career loss, to Amanda Ribas almost two years ago, Dern has really turned a corner. She already had a tremendous background in Brazilian ju-jitsu and a reputation as a submission artist. That’s been on full display in her last four fights, three of which have been submission victories. She also holds a very impressive decision victory over Virna Jandiroba last December. All three recent submission victories came in Round 1. The most recent was over Nina Nunes in April where Dern displayed some new takedown ability.

Rodriguez is 2-0 in 2021 with a decision victory over Michelle Waterson and a 2nd round TKO of Amanda Ribas before that. However, at 34 years of age, she has less upside than Dern. As soon as this fight gets to the mat, Rodriguez will be in major trouble. She was only 2-2-1 in the UFC coming into this year. Keep in mind that Dern’s last win was over someone who had not been submitted in a decade. With 25 minutes to work with, she will eventually get it to the ground and that’s ballgame. 8* Mackenzie Dern

8* Sabina Mazo (4:35 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Women’s Flyweight Division. The fight takes place on the main card. Mazo is 9-2 overall and 3-2 in her UFC career. Her opponent Mariya Agapova is also 9-2 overall, but just 1-1 in the UFC. Both fighters are coming off losses, but in the case of Mazo, she’d moved up a class to bantamweight. So I’ll look past her loss as it should be a successful return to 125 lbs Saturday afternoon.

What’s interesting here is who Agapova lost to in her last fight. It was Shana Dobson, who is someone that Mazo defeated back in 2019. Not only was it considered a major upset when Agapova lost to Dobson, but she was stopped via second round knockout and clearly gassed out. Also, that fight took place back in August of last year. So it’s been a long layoff for Agapova, the longest of her career in fact. I actually see that as a disadvantage coming into this fight. 

Mazo had been on a major roll in the UFC’s Flyweight Division before losing to Alexis Davis back in February. Whiile she was outclassed in a unanimous decision loss, again it bears repeating that she moved up a weight class for that fight. Unlike Agapova. Mazo has never been stopped in her MMA career. She’s also been fighting more regularly as she’s been inside the Octagon twice since Agapova last fought. Mazo is the better striker and stamina was clearly an issue for Agapova in her last fight. The favorite gets her hand raised. 8* Sabina Mazo

8* Boise State (3:30 ET): BYU is undefeated (5-0) and ranked #10 in the country. My own power rankings have far less regard for them as they’re not even in the top 50. So the Cougars are almost an “automatic fade” for me now as I believe they’ll drop a game sooner rather than later. Making things even more enticing is the fact that perhaps no team in the country is as banged up at QB as BYU is right now. Starter Jaren Hall (ribs) did not play last week and his backup Baylor Romney suffered a concussion against USF. Hall could return this week, but if not it will be freshman Jacob Conover making his first career start. Regardless of who ends up starting, I’m definitely taking the points in this one.

In light of the BYU QB situation, I’m pretty shocked to see how this line has moved during the week. Perhaps that has something to do with the fact that Boise State just lost for the third time this year, 41-31 at home to Nevada as a 3.5-point favorite. But that was a case where the Broncos were an unfortunate -3 in turnovers. Their other two losses - to UCF and Oklahoma State - were by a combined six points. Note that BSU has had the 1st half lead in each of their three losses. I feel they are better than their 2-3 SU record. It was two weeks ago that I took them as road favorites going into face an unbeaten Utah State team. They won for me there 27-3.

Boise State’s QB situation is not a concern as Hank Bachmeier threw for 388 yards and four touchdowns last week. Yes, he was responsible for two turnovers. But I still trust him more than whoever ends up under center for BYU. Injured ribs are a serious thing for a QB, so Hall isn’t going to be 100 percent. The freshman Conover didn’t look all that great last week.  But above all else, the Broncos remember the 51-17 beatdown they were handed by BYU last year on the blue turf. That BYU team lost five players to the NFL, including QB Zach Wilson. Look for a much different story this time around. 8* Boise State

10* Over Akron/Bowling Green (12:00 ET): Bowling Green is the only 5-0 ATS team in the country and now finds itself favored for just the third time in its last 43 games. Normally, I might view this as an opportune time to fade. But I also have zero interest in taking an Akron team that is just 2-21 SU in its last 23 games, even if one of those victories came against the Falcons last season. (The other was this year vs. FCS Bryant). During that same time, the Zips are 0-19 SU and 1-18 ATS as underdogs! (They were 2-pt favorites LY vs. BGSU). I don’t think you can play either side here. So what is the play?

Well, in addition to being perfect against the spread so far, BGSU has also gone Under in all five of its games. They are one of just two 5-0 Under teams, Purdue being the other. Seeing as how the Falcons average only 17.2 PPG (they are 2-3 straight up), you may think I’m going to predict the Under trend to continue. Guess again! With Akron already having given up 45+ points three different times, I think BGSU is going to have its highest scoring game of the season this week. Just to further illustrate how awful the Zips truly are, this is the first time since 2015 that BGSU is favored by two touchdowns.

Talk about being due for Over; not only is BGSU one of just two teams in the country to be 5-0 Under right now, but the last five meetings with Akron (and 8 of the last 9) have stayed Under as well. The Zips’ win over BG last season is the only time in their last eight games that they did not give up at least 34 points. All we’re probably going to need from them here is 10 points. Every one of Akron’s games this year would have gone Over this total, which is incredibly low for a College Football game in 2021. 10* Over Akron/Bowling Green

10* Cincinnati (7:00 ET): An argument could be made that this is a letdown spot for #5 Cincinnati as they are coming off perhaps the biggest win in school history last week, a 24-13 triumph in South Bend over Notre Dame. But one could also argue that Temple is also due for a letdown as it is coming off a shocking 34-31 upset of Memphis as 11-point home dogs. I know that the spread is rather sizable in this one, but my power ratings say it should be more than FIVE touchdowns. I’ll go ahead and trust my numbers.

The Bearcats not only must continue to win, but also win impressively if they are to have any shot at making the CFP. An unbeaten regular season is certainly a prerequisite for even being considered for one of the four spots. With all the chaos this year in College Football, Luke Fickell’s team has a shot. Going on the road and beating Indiana and Notre Dame was huge for the resume. Now it’s time to simply blow out a lesser opponent. The first two games of the Bearcats’ season were both 35-point wins (over Miami and Murray State) and that’s what I’m looking for here. 

Give Temple credit for pulling the upset last week, but they were down 17 to Memphis before storming back for a shocking second half comeback. Furthermore, in losses to Boston College and Rutgers, the Owls were outscored 89-17. They will give up a LOT of points this week as they’ve yet to face an offense anywhere close to the caliber of Cincinnati. The Bearcats have won their L3 Friday night home games by a total of 88 points. They continue to roll. 10* Cincinnati

10* Run Line Atlanta (4:37 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play. The Braves may have won a weak NL East by just 6.5 games, but they were pretty clearly the best team in their division. Every other team had a negative run differential while Atlanta was +134. That’s a better run differential than Milwaukee (+115), for the record. It was the Braves’ superior run differential that caught my eye back in August when they first made their move to take over the division. Since August 2nd, the team is 36-18 overall. I like them +1.5 in Game 1 of the NLDS. 

Usually, a team covets having home field advantage. But in the case of the Brewers, I’m not so sure that will be the case. They were just 45-36 here at American Family Field during the regular season, compared to 50-31 on the road. They only average 4.3 rpg at home, the same number they allow. The Brew Crew and Braves have faced off a total of six times in 2021 and four of those have been won by the road team. Atlanta has been good on the road all year, going 46-35 while outscoring opponents by a full run per game.

Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes led the NL in ERA this season and has a 234-34 KW ratio. But, he just suffered his 1st loss since May with a poor effort against the Dodgers on Sunday. He lasted just two innings and gave up three runs. Burnes faced Atlanta one time in the regular season and allowed a season-high 5 ER in that one. The Braves’ Game 1 starter, Charlie Morton, is more than capable of matching Burnes here as he checks in with a 2.43 ERA and 0.861 WHIP his L7 starts. The Brewers did not finish the regular season well, losing four straight and five of six. Atlanta may be the better overall team here. 10* Run Line Atlanta

8* Over White Sox/Astros (2:10 ET): My view that the White Sox were better on the road than their record suggests turned out to be misguided, at least for Game 1. The Astros wasted no time jumping out to a lead on Thursday afternoon, scoring at least one run from the second to the fifth inning and that was all she wrote. It ended up being a 6-1 win for the home team. The White Sox fell to 40-42 away from home this season, but as I pointed out in yesterday’s analysis, they do average 4.7 runs per game. So I’m at least expecting more offense from them this afternoon.

Houston finished tied (w/ Tampa Bay) for the major league lead in runs per game at 5.3. Their offensive prowess was on full display yday as they scored six (or more) runs for the fourth consecutive game. In Game 2, they’ll face Lucas Giolito, who had a great start in LY’s postseason. But that’s just a small sample size and there’s certainly no guarantee he can repeat that performance here. Giolito did throw a complete-game three-hitter against the Astros in the regular season, but the final score was 10-1, a result I’d certainly take here as I’m on the Over. 

Framber Valdez will start Game 2 for the Astros. He’s allowed 4+ runs in three of his last five starts and also surrendered that many the last time he faced the White Sox. So there’s still hope for the road team in this series. The White Sox figure to be aggressive at the plate today as they look to avoid falling into an 0-2 series deficit. This is a lineup that’s scored 5+ runs in six of its last eight games. But the Over is 23-10-2 the L35 times Houston has been off a win, so this figures to be a high-scoring game all around. 8* Over White Sox/Astros

10* LA Rams Money Line (8:20 ET): I think that the Seahawks should feel extremely fortunate to have defeated the 49ers on Sunday. Their first five drives of the game were all “three and outs” and resulted in -12 net yards. They were outgained nearly 2:1 in total yardage for the game (457-234) and 6.3 to 4.3 in terms of yards per play. It was a massive break that 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo got injured, leaving a rookie (Trey Lance) to have to come in and play extended minutes for the first time. I don’t think Seattle, who could easily be 1-3 SU right now, will be as fortunate this week. 

After beating the Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers in Week 3, the Rams suffered a letdown and thus their 1st loss of the season on Sunday. They simply had no answers for Kyler Murray and Arizona in a pretty shocking 37-20 home loss. Yards gained per play was basically even and the Rams’ offense did go over 400 yards. But two turnovers, one deep in their own territory, led to Cardinals’ touchdowns. There was also a missed FG and turnover on downs. The fumble at their own 21-yard line (occurred in the 2Q) was what really swung the game as LA fell behind by double digits and never really recovered. 

I’ve still got the Rams rated as the better team here and believe they’ll come in and pick up a big division road win. Don’t let last week cloud the fact that QB Matt Stafford has looked GREAT thus far in Sean McVay’s offense. The Seattle defense is giving up 444.5 YPG, which is the most in the league. Over the L2 years, we’ve seen Russell Wilson bail out this lousy Seahawks defense, but the NFC West is so tough now. The Rams are 5-1 SU/ATS coming off a division loss while the Seahawks are just 2-5 ATS off a division win. 10* LA Rams (Money Line)

10* Coastal Carolina (7:30 ET): This line ought to be more than three touchdowns, so I’ll “follow” the early money here and lay the points with the Chanticleers. The defending Sun Belt Champs have looked awesome in recent weeks, defeating their last two opponents by a combined score of 112-9! Now UMass and LA Monroe are two of the worst FBS teams in the country. But so is this week’s opponent, Arkansas State. ASU has allowed 41+ points to every FBS opponent so far and 52+ in three of those four games. They are dead last in the FBS in yards per game allowed (563.8).  Lay the points. 

In a short week, now is not the time where Arkansas State can get its many defensive issues fixed.  The Chanticleers’ offense is potent, averaging 528 yards and 48.2 points per game. It is led by QB McCall, who is completing 80% of his passes while leading the nation in yards per pass attempt. The ASU defense just gave up 500+ yards RUSHING last week, so they are in for a world of hurt here. 

The only game so far where Coastal had any trouble was when they visited Buffalo in Week 3. They struggled due to an inability to stop the run, but ASU is NOT a team capable of replicating the kind of success Buffalo had running the football. Because they are always trailing, the Red Wolves have yet to rush for 100 yards in a game this season and average a rather pathetic 67 YPG over land (on just 2.8 YPC!). They like to throw, but the problem is Coastal is allowing just 130.8 pass YPG, third fewest in the country. This will get ugly. 10* Coastal Carolina

8* Tulane 1st Half (7:30 ET): Please note that this is a first half play only. Houston comes in at 4-1 SU while Tulane is 1-4 SU. Somewhat predictably, the public is betting this one based on those WL records. But the records are a little misleading in the sense that Tulane has played - by far - the tougher schedule of the two teams. Already, the Green Wave have been asked to go to Oklahoma (game moved due to Hurricane Irma) and Ole Miss. In addition to facing those two P5 opponents, they’ve also had to take on two more pretty good teams, UAB and East Carolina. I’m seeing some value with the home dog, at least in the 1st half. Take the points.

Houston had been favored in each of its first four games. Then came last week where the Cougars were three-point dogs at Tulsa. They could not have asked for a better start to the game. It was 21-0 early in the 2Q after Tulsa’s first four possessions resulted in two punts, a turnover on downs and an INT. Frankly, I thought the final score (45-10) was a little misleading and not really representative of where I’ve got those two teams in my power ratings. Houston’s other three wins were all against bad teams and it should be pointed out that two weeks ago against Navy, they were down 10 at halftime. 

Tulane could certainly point to a -4 turnover differential as to why it got blown out, 52-29, at East Carolina last week. It was the second straight game where the Green Wave turned it over four times and second straight outright loss as a favorite. Bad starts doomed them in both games. At home Thursday night, I do not see them falling into such an early hole. This is a team that only lost by five points at Oklahoma. They have a good QB (Michael Pratt) and are 10-2 ATS at home under HC Willie Fritz. With SMU, Cincinnati and UCF all looming on the schedule, the Green Wave desperately needs to win Thursday night. 8* Tulane 1st Half

8* Run Line Chi White Sox (4:07 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the White Sox +1.5. I feel that the White Sox’ 40-41 road record is a little misleading. They’ve actually outscored their opponents by a decent margin when playing away from home. So I think getting them with an additional run and a half in our “back pocket” is a good buy. I’ve got a lot of respect for the Astros, who did sweep the White Sox in their lone visit of 2021. But the AL West Champs have a losing record in day games. 

I also give the visitors the edge in starting pitching for Game 1. They’ll send Lance Lynn, an offseason acquisition from Texas, to the mound. Lynn had a Cy Young worthy season with 201 strikeouts in 31 starts. He posted a 2.65 ERA after the All-Star Break. Going back a bit further (to June 26th), Lynn has a 9-6 TSR his L15 starts. But in four of those six starts the White Sox lost, the final deficit was just one run. I’ll take that here. 

I’m not going to tell you that Houston’s Game 1 starter (Lance McCullers Jr) is bad. Because that would be a lie. McCullers was 5 for 5 in quality starts in September. But he still has a higher ERA/WHIP than Lynn over the course of the full season. The Astros were just 4-6 L10 games while the White Sox are 7-2 their L9. Chicago did lose its final regular season game (meaningless) but is 45-25 off a loss this year. 8* Chi White Sox +1.5 (RUN LINE)

10* Boston Run Line (8:08 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am taking Boston +1.5. The Yankees won the final six regular season meetings vs. the Red Sox, all of those wins coming by two runs or greater. But it was the team’s WL record in games decided by two runs or LESS that got them this Wild Card opportunity as the Yanks outperformed their expected win total by six games in the regular season. Only Seattle, who was a ridiculous +15, was a bigger overachiever in that regard. I just can’t see the Yankees beating the Red Sox for a seventh straight time by two or more runs.

Despite the Yanks winning the L6 head to head meetings, Boston still won the season series 10-9. The first seven meetings of 2021 were actually all won by the Red Sox. That’s why this winner-take-all game is taking place in Fenway Park, where the home team happens to average 5.8 runs per game. That was the highest scoring average by any team at home this year, even more than Colorado at Coors Field. The Red Sox lineup will also not be intimidated by Gerrit Cole, who will start Tuesday for the Yankees. Cole has a 4.91 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four starts vs. Boston this season. He also really struggled over his L3 starts of the regular season, giving up 15 runs in 17 ⅔ IP, and has been a big money-loser overall (-12.35 units) in ‘21. 

Meanwhile, the Yankees are not that strong of an offensive club. They average only 4.4 rpg, second fewest among all playoff teams. Much will be made of Nathan Eovaldi’s 1-4 TSR vs. the Yankees this year, but he allowed 2 ER or less in five of those six starts. Eovaldi has a 3.64 ERA since 2016 against his former team. Boston finished the regular season with a better run differential than the Yankees, +80 to +42, and I think there’s some real value here on the better team playing at home. Boston will win, or lose by only one run, on Tuesday. 10* Boston +1.5

8* Under Yankees/Red Sox (8:08 ET): Even though the Red Sox come in averaging a MLB-high 5.8 runs per game at home and have had success this year vs. Gerrit Cole, look for the AL Wild Card Game to stay Under the total. The Yankees are NOT a particularly strong offensive club and - with one exception in September - Nathan Eovaldi has had their number the past few seasons. The Under was 13-6 in all meetings this year between the Yankees and Red Sox. That includes 8-2 at Fenway and 8-2 L10 overall. 

Eovaldi starting here for Boston makes sense. Since 2016, he has a 3.64 ERA against his former team. Five of the six times he faced them this season, Eovaldi allowed 2 ER or less. The first five saw him allow just seven runs in 31 ⅓ IP. Then he got shelled in late September. I’m going to call that last one an aberration as the Yankees are averaging just 4.4 rpg for the season, second fewest among all playoff teams (even including the National League ones). The Yanks have gone Under in 56% of their road games and 62% of their division games. 

Cole hasn’t fared well against the Red Sox this season. Like Eovaldi, he definitely did struggle a bit down the stretch. But Cole was intentionally rested Sunday so that he’d be available for this game, or a tiebreaker that ended up not being needed. The Yankees obviously trust him in the spot and it’s unlikely that he struggles badly. Cole allowed three runs or less in 23 of his 30 regular season starts. Boston is 7-1 Under in its last eight games. 8* Under Yankees/Red Sox

10* LA Chargers Money Line (8:15 ET): The underdog is a perfect 6-0 ATS in these teams’ games this season. The Raiders’ season started with B2B upsets over the Ravens and Steelers. Then they won last week as favorites, but did not cover, in their second OT win of the season. The Chargers have also already pulled two upsets, winning at Washington 20-16 (+1.5) and at Kansas City 30-24 (+7). In between, they lost outright to the Cowboys 20-17 as three-point home favorites. 

I just can’t see Las Vegas pulling its third upset in four weeks. Not when they are just the fourth team to win two OT games in the first three weeks and only the second to start 3-0 when doing so. Prior to pulling out the OT win against Miami last week, the Silver and Black had been just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS when coming off B2B SU wins. Personally, I was not that high on the Raiders coming into the year. So it’s definitely a surprise to see them at 3-0 SU. 

The Chargers are a team I did say would improve in 2021 and my main rationale was “Justin Herbert.” The second year QB threw four TD passes in last week’s upset of the Chiefs. While LA was outgained in that game and the beneficiary of four KC turnovers, I don’t necessarily believe it was a “lucky” win. The Raiders’ defense has yet to be really tested in the passing game this year. I trust the Chargers’ ability to limit Derek Carr more than I do the Raiders slowing down Herbert. Take the Chargers to win, on the money line. 10* LA Chargers (ML)

9* New England (8:20 ET): I know that Tampa Bay is a perfect 5-0 ATS off a loss with Tom Brady as their QB, but you are paying a premium because of that trend Sunday night. This isn’t “any other game” either. It’s Brady’s return to New England where he won six Super Bowls alongside HC Bill Belichick. Brady will become the NFL’s all-time passing leader at some point in this game, but I expect things to be closer than the oddsmakers think as Belichick is a remarkable 14-4 ATS as a home dog. Take the points. 

New England is just 1-2 SU, but outgained the opponents in both losses. Ironically, they were outgained themselves when they defeated the Jets 25-6 two weeks ago. Being +4 in turnovers in that win was huge, but then the “TO bug” bit them LW vs New Orleans as they were -3 in 28-13 game. Brady might be gone, but I still like this Pats’ defense as it is allowing just 318 YPG. The play that put last week’s game out of reach was pick-six, thrown by Brady’s replacement Mac Jones, early in the 2H. So the defense has yet to allow more 21 in any game. 

Tampa Bay’s defense has some work to do as the secondary is banged up. They’ve allowed at least 25 pts in every game and had few answers for the Rams last week in a 34-24 loss. The Bucs were a little fortunate to win in Week 1 (needed last second FG) and then the 48-25 final against Atlanta was misleading as that was a one-score game in the 4Q (they returned TWO interceptions for TDs). Given the magnitude of this SNF matchup, I believe the Bucs are WAY too “public” of a side. You know Belichick wants to win this game badly. 9* New England

10* Pittsburgh (4:25 ET): Green Bay’s horrendous Week 1 effort against the Saints now seems like a distant memory as they are 2-1 following primetime victories over the Lions and 49ers. But lest we forget that the Pack trailed Detroit at the half and needed a last second FG to win in San Francisco last Sunday night. This line feels like a classic overreaction to recent results as GB’s 38-3 loss to New Orleans should not be forgotten. They are a public side that should be faded in this spot. I’m taking the points with Pittsburgh. 

The Steelers’ season does seem to be “heading in reverse” as it’s been the complete opposite of what we’ve seen from the Packers. Pittsburgh started out by going to Buffalo and upsetting the Bills 23-16 as 6.5 point underdogs. But they’ve followed that up with B2B outright losses as favorites, losing 26-17 to Las Vegas and 24-10 to Cincinnati. Both losses were at home. There are many offensive issues right now, but the defense is still good and hopes to get T.J. Watt back this week. 

This will only be the ninth time that Ben Roethlisberger is an underdog of six or more points. Pittsburgh is 13-3-1 ATS as a dog the L3+ seasons and has the NFL’s best ATS record in the month of October (7-1-1 during that time). The only team that the Packers have held below 28 points was the winless Lions, who scored 17 in the 1H against them. I think the Steelers’ D holds Rodgers below 30 points and will score enough here to cover the spread. 10* Pittsburgh

10* Sevilla (3:00 ET): The only unbeaten La Liga side besides top of the table Real Madrid, Sevilla looks to continue its recent roll as they head to Granada this weekend. While it was another in the Champions League mid-week (1-1 vs. Wolfsburg), Los Nervionenses has won B2B fixtures in the Spanish top flight, putting the sword to both Valencia and Espanyol in a pair of two-goal victories. Despite having played only six matches thus far, Sevilla could pull level with Real Madrid for first by day’s end.

Granada is at the opposite end of the table right now as they are one of only three La Liga sides without a win this season. They currently sit in the relegation zone (18th) with just three points from seven matches. This wasn’t expected from the Red and Whites as they finished in the top 10 each of the L2 seasons. But this season has obviously gone poorly and they’ve lost two straight. I faded them on Monday against Celta Vigo, which ended up being a brutal 1-0 loss with the lone goal coming in stoppage time.

A short week isn’t the time for Granada to turn things around against one of La Liga’s best sides. Sevilla has finished fourth each of the last two campaigns and looks to have the goods to finish even closer to the top in 2021/22. I know they were in Germany Wednesday, but they could not have asked for a better fixture this weekend in their return to the domestic front. They have won four of their last five against Granada. 10* Sevilla

10* Bayer Leverkusen (1:30 ET): I wasn’t expecting to see Leverkusen sitting second in the Bundesliga table, but that’s where they were entering the weekend. They’ve been a little fortunate as they are only middle of the table in expected points (xPts) as their number of goals scored (16) greatly exceeds what should have been expected. But regression will not come this week as they face winless Arminia Bielefeld, who is the joint lowest scoring side in the Bundesliga right now.

Leverkusen has scored three or more goals in four of their six Bundesliga matches. Bielefeld has scored only three times this season. So this is not a good matchup for the home side. Bielefeld has lost only twice, but has just four points (all on draws) and sits 16th in the table, a dangerous spot to be in (would put them in the relegation playoff). They are second from the bottom in xPts. Remember that they scored the second fewest goals last season in the Bundesliga with only one more than relegated Schalke.

Meanwhile, there is plenty of optimism surrounding this Leverkusen side thanks to new manager Gerardo Seoane and teenage sensation Florian Wirtz, who already has four goals and four assists. In addition to the fast start here in the German top flight, Bayer is coming off a commanding 4-0 win in the Europa League midweek against Celtic. Normally, I might be fearful of a letdown, but Bayer has revenge for a loss last March to Bielefeld. 10* Bayer Leverkusen

8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): Incredibly, the Jets are on the verge of starting 0-4 for a third consecutive season. It has been a rough start to the pro career of QB Zach Wilson, the #2 overall draft choice. The Jets’ offense has scored just 20 points in three games while getting held out of the end zone B2B weeks. They were shutout in Denver LW, 26-0, in what was their worst loss yet. But against all odds, I think they’re going to keep this one closer than expected. Take the points with the home dog. 

Tennessee usually doesn’t have a problem scoring. The Over is 22-6-1 in Ryan Tannehill starts. But this week Tannehill is going to be without BOTH of his starting receivers, Julio Jones and A.J. Brown. Yes, he can still hand the ball to Derrick Henry. But this Jets’ defense isn’t bad at stopping the run. They allow just 3.8 YPC and know what’s coming here. The most points allowed by the Jets in any game so far was the 26 last week.

As for the woeful Jets’ offense, I believe it has a chance to get on track here against a Titans’ defense that gave up 30+ points each of the first two weeks. The Jets are one of only three 0-3 ATS teams (KC, Washington), but considering how well underdogs are doing in 2021 (30-18 ATS with 21 outright wins), they are due to cover. First year HC Robert Saleh really needs a win.  I’ll almost always gravitate towards a top 10 defense getting this many points at home. 8* NY Jets

8* Over Panthers/Cowboys (1:00 ET): Dallas is a last-second FG away from being 3-0. Since losing 31-29 to the Bucs on Opening Night, America’s Team has bounced back with wins over the Chargers (on a last second FG) and the Eagles Monday Night. The offense is coming off a 41-point effort and has run for an average of 179 yards in its two wins. You can’t forget about QB Dak Prescott either. He threw for over 400 yards against Tampa Bay. As expected, the Cowboys are very good offensively. 

Carolina is 3-0 SU for the first time since 2015 when it made the Super Bowl with Cam Newton as MVP. Like Dallas, the Panthers are also 3-0 ATS. Their defense is #1 in the league in yards allowed and #2 in scoring. But they’ve been fortunate to face two rookie QBs (one a backup) and Jameis Winston. This will be - by far - their toughest assignment of the young season. The team has gone Under in six straight games dating back to last season. But I see that streak coming to an end here. 

The Panthers will be without RB Christian McCaffery. However, QB Sam Darnold is off B2B 300+ yard games as he looks to win three straight starts for the first time in his career. The Cowboys’ defense gives up over 400 yards per game, so even without McCaffery, the Panthers should move the ball and score. They would seem to have an advantage due to being off a “mini-bye” (played last Thursday) while Dallas played on MNF. But Prescott has averaged 347 yards passing his last three times playing on a short week. 8* Over Panthers/Cowboys

10* West Ham United (9:00 AM ET): Newly promoted Brentford has certainly turned some heads in their return to the Premier League. At the start of the season, it was thought the goal would be simply to avoid relegation, but here we are after six matches and the Bees are firmly a mid-table side with just one loss. They are off a spirited 3-3 draw with Liverpool last week where they twice rallied from a goal deficit in front of a raucous home crowd. But this week they’ve got to hit the road to face another team above them in the table.

West Ham finished in sixth place last season, earning them a spot in the Europa League. So far in 2021/22, the Hammer have the look of a side that will again challenge for a top spot. They too have lost only one Premier League match this season and it required a comeback by Manchester United to beat them. Since then, they’ve gone a perfect 3-0 over the L10 days. They avenged the loss to Man U with a win in the Carabao Cup, picked up a EPL win against Leeds then blanked Rapid Vienna 2-0 in the Europa League Group stage.

While balancing European football with the domestic side can be tricky, I think the Hammers have what it takes to get the full three points at home this week They’ve scored nine times in four matches at London Stadium this season and entered the weekend as the second highest scoring EPL team overall. Only two teams - Man City and Tottenham - have earned more points at home since the turn of the year. It felt that Brentford was a little lucky to earn that draw last week. They won’t be as lucky this week. 10* West Ham United

8* LSU (9:00 ET): Auburn has already lost once as an underdog this season. That loss came at Penn State by a score of 28-20 two weeks ago. The Tigers probably should have also lost last week to Georgia State at Jordan-Hare, but a QB change in the second half propelled them to a 34-24 come from behind victory. That was a misleading final though as the Tigers got two non-offensive TDs in the second half, one a pick six in the final 30 seconds which came right after a 98-yard drive and the go-ahead score. Now they head to a place where they haven’t won in two decades. They’ve dropped 10 straight in Death Valley.

With TJ Finley leading the comeback last week, he’s likely to at least split time with Bo Nix this week. Whomever is playing QB for Auburn must deal with a defense that leads the country with 20 sacks. It’s an interesting storyline with Finley having left LSU to play for Auburn. But this could quickly turn into a case of “don’t know what you got until it’s gone.” First year coach Bryan Harsin is dealing with a lot of issues right now as he just fired his WR coach. Throw in what figures to be a rowdy, late Saturday night crowd in Baton Rouge and this just looks like a really tough spot for the road team.

Back in the opener, I faded LSU as they were playing at a UCLA team that already had a game under its belt. That turned out to be the correct move. But since then, these Tigers have really turned things around with three straight impressive wins, including at Mississippi State last week. While the final margin ended up being just three points, the Bayou Bengals were up by 18 in the 4Q. They don’t have any issues at QB as Max Johnson’s 15 TD passes are second most in the country. This is a big revenge spot for LSU after losing 48-11 LY in Jordan Hare. They are a much better team in 2021. Lay the points. 8* LSU

10* Old Dominion (9:00 ET): ODU may seem like an odd team to go “all in” on this week, but the Monarchs are off a very misleading 35-34 home loss to Buffalo last week and I look for them to bounce back. They outgained the Bulls 433-297 LW in Norfolk, but it didn’t matter as they were behind 35-7 at halftime thanks to two non-offensive scores. They outscored UB 27-0 in the second half but then in the cruelest of fates missed the potential game-tying XP with just 19 seconds left. At least they covered as 13-point underdogs. I’m taking the points this week. 

It’s not just last week’s misleading final that has led me to ODU this week. How about UTEP being favored? Now the Miners did cover as 9.5-point road chalk in Week 1, but that was against the worst FBS team in the country, New Mexico State (yes, even worse than UConn). UTEP is now 3-1 SU after upsetting New Mexico 20-13 last week here in El Paso. The Miners also pitched a 2H shutout, outscoring the Lobos 17-0 to erase what was a 13-3 halftime deficit. UTEP now has the same number of wins over FBS teams this year (2) as they did the previous FOUR SEASONS COMBINED! 

This is a matchup of the two teams predicted to finish last in the respective C-USA divisions. ODU does not have a win over FBS team since 2018 as they were one of three teams that elected to skip the 2020 season. This is their best shot at one since a one-point loss to UTSA late in the ‘19 season. The UTEP defense is allowing only a 19% conversion rate on third down, which is a totally unsustainable number, so look for some big plays out of the ODU run game (two backs averaging 6.0 YPC) and the dog to leave with the cash. 10* Old Dominion

8* Niko Price (8:15 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Welterweight Division (170lbs). You’ve got both Niko Price (14-5 overall, 6-5 UFC) and Alex Oliveira (22-10-1, 11-8-1 UFC) desperate for victories. The line on Price has shot up and I’m inclined to agree with the move, believing he’ll be the one to get his hand raised. 

Price is an exciting fighter with some highlight reel knockouts. But he’s won just one of his last five fights and is 0-2 with a no contest in the last three. The last time we saw him was back in July, on the undercard of Poirier vs. McGregor 3, when he took a decision loss to Michel Pereira. While it’s been a tough stretch for Price, his opponent is arguably in even worse form right now having dropped five of seven including B2B submission losses in the last year. 

So why am I so confident that Price is going to be the one to bounce back? Well, styles make fights and his aggressive style is likely to pay dividends in this one. Price is extremely aggressive, always looking for a knockout, while Oliveira prefers to keep his opponents at bay. Even if Oliveira can subdue Price in the clinch for a bit, Price is likely to overwhelm him and deliver the knockout blow. 8* Niko Price

10* Houston (7:10 ET): The Astros outhit the A’s on Friday (13-7), but also committed three errors and as a result they lost 8-6. Both teams scored four runs in the eighth inning. As a reminder, despite having already clinched the AL West pennant, Houston still has something to play for here. That would be homefield advantage in the LDS vs. the White Sox. All they need is one more win to clinch. While the revenge angle hasn’t suited me too well of late, I’m sticking with it and taking the ‘Stros tonight. 

Oakland swept Houston last weekend, delaying what seemed like an inevitable fourth division crown in five years for the Astros. That sweep also kept the A’s alive in the Wild Card hunt. But then they were swept in Seattle, which officially eliminated them from playoff contention. Although the A’s will tell you that it’s “definitely possible” (they lost 12 straight times to the Mariners!), sweeping the same team twice in a row is hard to do, especially when you’re the underdog like the A’s are here. 

Houston took two of three from another division leader (Tampa Bay) earlier in the week. I just can’t see them losing again to Oakland as a favorite. They send Jake Odorizzi to the bump on Saturday, hoping he can continue a recent successful stretch of allowing 2 ER or less in six straight starts. He held Oakland to one run and four hits when he faced them last weekend. Paul Blackburn faces him for the second straight time here. After also not factoring into the decision in the last meeting, Blackburn is still just 1-3 with no quality starts in eight trips to the mound this season. He had a 6.20 ERA last month. 10* Houston

9* Central Florida (3:30 ET): The Golden Knights have had two weeks to stew over a 42-35 loss to Louisville, a game that was decided on a 66-yard “pick-six” in the closing seconds. I look for them to come out and hammer a Navy team that is rather “lost at sea” at this point. The Midshipmen are 0-3 and while they looked somewhat better in last week’s 28-20 loss at Houston, this simply is not the same kind of team we’re used to seeing under HC Ken Niumatalolo. Lay the points with the rested visitor. 

Central Florida’s season began by hosting Boise State. Though they actually fell behind 21-0 early in that game, they absolutely deserved to come from behind and win 36-31 as they statistically dominated the Broncos in that one. It was a 573-283 edge in total yards and would have been a blowout had it not been for an early 100 yard INT return for TD by Boise. UCF then crushed FCS Bethune-Cookman as you’d expect, putting up 63 points for 1st year HC Gus Malzahn. The loss two weeks ago doesn’t at all dim my view that this is the top challenger to Cincinnati in the AAC this year. 

Meanwhile, Navy now finds itself towards the bottom of the conference. They could put up only 10 combined points in the first two games and an embarrassing 68 total yards in a 23-3 home loss to Air Force. The Middies did lead at the half LW, but are now facing an opponent that has easily won the two previous matchups. The extra week to prepare for the Navy triple option is huge for the UCF defense. Even with a backup QB making his first career start, the Golden Knights should roll in this one. 9* Central Florida

10* Inter Milan (2:45 PM ET): Despite coming off successive draws - one here in Serie A and the other in the Champions League - current Scudetto holders Inter Milan are still to be feared every time they are on the pitch. They’ve yet to lose on the domestic front this season, having won four and drawn twice. Only fellow unbeatens Napoli and AC Milan are currently ahead of them in the table. Inter is the highest scoring side in Serie A and has the second best goal differential.  A win today would move them ahead of AC Milan into second and within a point of Napoli. I see them getting the full three today against their lesser opponent.

It was a wild 2-2 draw with Atalanta last weekend for Inter. There was no shame in sharing the points there. A goalless draw with Shakhtar Donetsk was the rare instance of them not finding the back of the net. While they’ve struggled in the Champions League so far, Inter is just the second team since the turn of the century to score 20 goals in the first six matches of a Serie A season. Also, they can set a new club record by scoring twice against Sassuolo here. It would be their 12th straight match with 2+ goals.

Sassuolo finds itself in a familiar position, that being the middle of the table as they’ve only been able to manage two wins so far. One of them came last week against recently promoted Salernitana, the team currently at the foot of the table. That was Sassuolo’s first win since defeating Hellas Verona 3-2 in the opener. In between the two wins, they drew once and lost three times. They managed just two goals in that four match stretch, so clearly they lack the firepower to compete with a side like Inter. They lost both fixtures with them last season by a combined score of 5-1. 10* Inter Milan

9* Eastern Michigan (2:30 ET): Chris Creighton, now in his eighth year at EMU, has done a great job at turning around this once-sorry program. He is now gunning for his second 4-1 SU start in six years. Prior to his arrival in Ypsilanti, the Eagles had started 4-1 just twice in 28 years! Their only loss here in 2021 came to a Wisconsin team that I still think is much better than its record. All three wins have come against bad teams, but at least they’ve been blowouts; all three coming by 14 points or greater. 

A clear sign of the turnaround engineered here by Creighton is the fact his team has beaten Northern Illinois each of the last two seasons. Prior to those two wins, EMU had lost 11 straight to NIU and 19 of 21. They will now be going for their first three-game win streak in the series since 1958! Conversely, Northern Illinois has had just three losing seasons in 13 years, but two of those were 2019 and 2020. The Huskies didn’t even win a game LY (0-6) and that included a 41-33 loss as six-point road underdog to EMU. The year before saw the Eagles come here to DeKalb and win 45-17 as five-point dogs. 

Northern Illinois may be off to a 2-2 start this year, but the defense has surrendered 50+ points in both losses and one of the wins (22-21 upset over Ga Tech in the opener) was very misleading. They were outgained in that victory, then were very lucky to earn a push here at home vs. Wyoming the following week as they were down by as many as 26 in that game. After getting crushed 63-10 by Michigan, the Huskies did win last week, but that was against FCS Maine. EMU is 23-8 ATS L31 road games, including 20-6-1 as a dog. 9* Eastern Michigan

8* Wisconsin (12:00 ET): So we’ve got Michigan, 4-0 SU and ranked #14 in the country, GETTING points from unranked 1-2 Wisconsin. Now the game is in Madison (more on that later), but this line probably is surprising to some. Not to me. Michigan was outgained 352-275 last week by Rutgers and did next to nothing offensively in the second half. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is off a very misleading 41-13 loss to Notre Dame last week where they actually OUTGAINED the Irish. Believe it or not, we’re getting a GREAT value here on the Badgers at home. Lay the points. 

This is precisely the kind of game Jim Harbaugh always seems to lose. He is 0-11 SU as underdog since returning to his alma mater. Since 2015, Michigan is the ONLY team in the FBS not to have a single outright win as a dog. Madison has also been a “house of horrors” for past Wolverines teams. They have not won here since 2001, dropping five in a row including four straight by double digits. Michigan’s inability to run the ball last week in the 2H vs. Rutgers, or even convert a single third down, seems like it will be a major issue here as they face the nation’s top rush defense. Wisconsin has allowed only 69 rushing yards total in three games! 

Then there’s this tidbit: There have been nine unranked teams favored vs. a top-15 opponent since 2016. Seven of the nine won, including WVU (who I had) over Va Tech two weeks ago. This shapes up to be a CLASSIC anti-public bet. The respective turnover differentials of the two teams, Wisconsin is -7 while Michigan has yet to turn it over even once, is bound to even out. The Badgers had THREE non-offensive TD’s go against them in the 4Q LW at Soldier Field. Look for it to be their defense making the big plays this week as they win at home. 8* Wisconsin