10* Toronto (7:00 ET): Two full weeks of CFL action are in the books and once again close games have been the "rule" and not the exception. Six of the first eight games have been decided by four points or less. Interestingly enough, the two games that have not both involved Toronto. The Argos opened the year by thrashing Hamilton, 32-15, as 3.5-pt home dogs. I was fortunate enough to be on them there. Last week, however, they came out on the short end of the stick as this time they were blown out, 28-15 by B.C. (I was not on that game). Now they hit the road for the 1st time in 2017 and anticipating a close game, I'll again back them in this spot. The opponent is the defending Grey Cup Champion Ottawa, but the Redblacks have struggled in the defense of their title, opening 0-1-1.

At least Redblacks' backers have profited this year as the team is 2-0 ATS. The first two weeks were both rematches of LY's Grey Cup against Calgary. In Week 1, here at home, it was a 31-31 tie as the Redblacks blew a 14-point lead. The following week, in Calgary, their defense let them down in a 43-39 loss. While the Stampeders are arguably the class of the CFL, you have to be a little concerned over the Redblacks' defense, or rather lack of it, as they've allowed an average of 418 YPG so far. Compare that to Toronto, who has outgained their first two foes by 121 YPG. Granted, that's due to the one dominant performance against Hamilton, but I certainly believe the Argos are more than capable of keeping this one close, if not take the game outright.

The number of sacks, league-wide, continue to decline. But don't tell that to the Argos' defense, which leads the league w/ nine. No other team has more than five. On offense, QB Ricky Ray threw for 500+ yards in Week 1 before predictably coming down to Earth last week against B.C. I look for a bounce back here. What's key to keep in mind here is that Ottawa was a very fortunate Grey Cup winner in 2016. They won the East Division w/ a losing record (8-9-1) and negative point differential (-12) before getting hot in the playoffs. They are due for some major regression in 2017. They are just 2-7 ATS their L9 games as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Argos are due to reverse LY's poor finish at the betting window where they closed on an 0-7 ATS run. Take the points. 10* Toronto

8* Philadelphia (4:05 ET): On this final weekend before the All-Star Break, we have a number of non-divisional foes in the National League meeting for the first time this season. One such matchup is here, yet I'm assuming "good seats are still available" for Padres-Phillies, a battle between arguably the two worst teams in all of baseball. San Diego has the better overall record (37-49 compared to 28-57) and won last night's series opener, 4-3. However, they also sport the vastly inferior run differential (-123 to -97) and I happen to view that particular metric as being a far more reliable predictor of future results than a team's won-loss record. Therefore, I'll offer up a rare endorsement of the Phillies Sat afternoon as they have what looks to be a big time edge on the mound as well.

Last night saw the teams having to wait out a 94-minute rain delay. It came w/ SD leading 3-1 and afterwards, the Phillies wasted little time in tying the game up. So it appeared as if Mother Nature was certainly on the home team's side. Alas, a sac fly in the top of the ninth by the Padres' Austin Hedges ended up being the difference. That GW run was the lone run scored by the Padres last night that didn't come off a solo HR. Philly actually outhit them for the game, 9-8. The win was SD's 4th in the past 5 games, however, the road has generally been unkind to this ballclub throughout 2017. They're just 15-27 outside of Petco Park and getting outscored by 1.7 rpg in the process. I value that trend more than anything in today's matchup. 

Both of today's starting pitchers didn't allow a run in their respective last starts. But while the Padres' Jhoulys Chacin has been victimized by lack of run support more than anything else, there's no escaping the fact he's pitched very poorly on the road this season. In eight road starts, he has a 9.33 ERA and 1.991 WHIP. Therefore, it's actually a bit shocking to also see him w/ a 3-5 team start record. Meanwhile, the Phillies' Aaron Nola has simply been "lights out" of late as his ERA and WHIP over his L3 starts overall are 1.27 and 0.938. Last time out, he tossed seven shutout innings of four-hit ball against Pittsburgh. That also happens to be the last time the Phillies won. Facing a Padres lineup that ranks 30th (i.e. dead last!) in MLB in runs scored, team batting average and OBP should make for another quality effort from Nola here. 8* Philadelphia

8* Baltimore (2:10 ET): I'm "digging in my heels" w/ the Orioles here as they are now 0-5 this season head to head w/ the Twins. On the surface, neither side seems to have any dramatic edge over the other, so Minnesota having the O's number really makes little sense. The revenge angle that applies to Baltimore in this series remains one of my favorites as in today's game it's simply too hard to continually beat the same team day after day. The first two games of this series have been particularly frustrating for both myself and O's fans as the Twins have done all their scoring (15 runs) in four innings. That's some serious "cluster luck" there. In fact, in Thursday's opener, they scored all six runs in one frame. Last night was even more frustrating when you consider Baltimore had raced out to an early 6-0 lead before conceding the game's final nine runs! Revenge is still on the O's side and will be theirs Saturday afternoon.

Maybe a starting pitching change will do Baltimore some good here. Now Wade Miley was by no means effective his last time out. He allowed seven runs in 1 2/3 innings in what was a truly ugly performance, his worst of 2017, in fact. But I believe the southpaw will rebound today, if for no other reason than he's "due." Note that going into June 1st, Miley was sporting a 2.82 ERA. Admittedly, this has not been a good stretch for him or the team, which has lost five straight and seven of the last eight. But I remain highly skeptical of a Twins team that is somehow above .500 despite a run differential of -50 for the season. Even after winning each of the L2 days, the Twins still have the worst home record in the American League.

Adalberto Meija, also a lefty, will start here for Minnesota. He's 3-0 his L3 starts w/ a 1.53 ERA. As impressive as that might sound, his 1.302 WHIP during the same stretch indicates he's had good fortune. Furthermore, Meija's numbers over the course of the season are far from impressive. Here at Target Field, he has a 5.66 ERA and 1.685 WHIP in seven starts. Given that Baltimore has jumped on both Twins' starters they've faced so far, I have no reason to doubt they can do the same to Meija. I feel that the O's have looked like the better team for the majority of those two games; it's just that the Twins have been able to produce a couple of big innings. Rarely are the Twins priced this high, even at home. 8* Baltimore

10* Baltimore (8:10 ET): Up 2-0 entering the bottom of the third, my Run Line play on the Orioles (+1.5) last night was looking pretty good. Unfortunately, that was when the "dam broke" and Minnesota scored six runs in the inning and wound up winning by two. Needless to say, it was a very frustrating result w/ the Twins scoring all of their runs in just one inning, all coming w/ two outs! They benefited from two fielders' choices plus a hit batsmen. Other than that one inning, they had just five hits in the game. Baltimore outhit them overall 11-8, but left runners on base in the 7th (bases loaded!), 8th and 9th innings and went just 2 for 9 w/ RISP, leaving 10 men on base. They still have revenge from a prior sweep at the hands of the Twins (that occurred at Camden Yards back in May), which is why I'll back them here again tonight. 

The Twins continue to be one of the most curious teams to evaluate in all of MLB. They're three games above .500 despite an awful -53 run differential. They also have the worst home record in all of baseball at 19-26. Now, I'm well aware that Baltimore has the American League's worst run differential (-85) and is 15-29 on the road this season. But while yday brought what appeared to be an outstanding pitching matchup (on paper) of Bundy vs. Berrios, tonight's appears squarely in favor of the Baltimore camp w/ Kevin Gausman opposing Felix Jorge. The latter has made only one start for the Twins and while it was a win, he also allowed three runs and seven hits in just five innings while striking out only two batters. He's a spot starter, only pitching here because of an injury to Hector Santiago. Minnesota has been outscored by 1.3 rpg at home this year, which is downright shocking.

Gausman is off B2B very impressive outings, having not allowed a single run in 12 1/3 IP (only six hits). Yes, he has had his share of struggles at times this year. But it appears as if he's turning things around. Something that the Orioles have NOT been able to take advantage of this week is the return of ace reliever Zach Britton to the bullpen. His injury-induced absence was a major culprit in the team's overall decline in the last month or so. Had Bundy been able to turn over a lead last night, we would have seen Britton and I have no doubt he would have closed the game. As it stood, the Baltimore bullpen pitched four shutout innings anyway.  10* Baltimore

10* Run Line Detroit (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Tigers +1.5. It's been awhile since we've seen the situation that presents itself here in this battle of AL Central rivals. We have an "immediate revenge" situation as the two starting pitchers are facing off for a second straight time. Last Saturday saw Carlos Carrasco and Cleveland beat Jordan Zimmerman and Detroit w/ the former starter tossing seven strong innings where he allowed just one run on four hits. Obviously, the odds are not in Zimmerman's favor here in Cleveland, but history shows that in spots such as this it's best to take the pitcher who lost the previous matchup. Because of the price and the "added insurance" it provides, I'll be playing the Tigers on the Run Line. 

Carrasco has mostly been sharp of late as the Indians have won his L5 starts. But he's not been immune to a poor outing by any stretch of the imagination. Two starts ago, he picked up one of the more extraordinary no-decisions of the entire MLB season as the team rallied to beat Texas 15-9 after Carrasco had allowed eight runs in just 3 1/3 innings! Also, something to keep in mind is that Cleveland has been a huge money-loser at home this year as their 19-23 record has them down a MLB-worst 22.8 units. No other team in baseball is down more than 13.3 units in home games this year. Yes, I played the Tribe as big favorites last night, but that was against a terrible Padres team that had shockingly taken the first two games of the series.

Detroit comes off a 5-4 homestand where they alternated wins and losses throughout. That pattern has them "due" to lose here, but as big of underdogs as they are on the ML here, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them defy the odds. They are 5-4 against Cleveland this year, including 2-1 at Progressive Field. Zimmerman was a bit unlucky to have allowed four runs last Saturday as he only gave up five hits in 5 2/3 IP. I think he's in line for a quality start tonight. Remember Cleveland is w/o their manager, Terry Francona, right now. They are also just 3-7 as home favorites of -175 to -250 on the money line, which helps explain those massive losses at the betting window. The Tigers do no worse than a one run loss here. 10* Run Line Detroit (7:10 ET)

6* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): For about a month now, the Yankees have been slumping. They've dropped 16 of their last 22 games and as a result now trail the rival Red Sox by 3.5 games in the A.L. East. However, they still sport a tremendous run differential (+103) that is fourth best in all of baseball. I believe that this weekend, tonight in particular, offers up a tremendous opportunity for them to "get back on track" going into the All-Star Break. They'll host a Milwaukee team that had to play a make-up game on Thursday (at Chicago) and is now in its third city in as many days. While yday's 11-2 victory over the Cubs has to have the Brew Crew feeling pretty good about itself right now (was the team's 4th straight victory), heading into an American League venue puts them at a severe disadvantage.

The Yankees had Thursday off, which is a nice advantage to have coming into this three-game set. It was a disappointing series earlier in the week, here in the Bronx against the Blue Jays, as the team wearing Pinstripes dropped two of three. Wednesday saw them rally back from a 5-0 deficit only to lose 7-6. All-Star reliever Dellin Betances has had a rough time of late, but I don't expect that to last. I also like tonight's starter, Jordan Montgomery, who checks in w/ a 1.056 WHIP his L3 starts. Not only that, but Montgomery is also riding a six-start unbeaten streak coming into Friday and since June 3rd, opponents are batting only .171 against him, including a miniscule .080 w/ RISP. I'd also like to point out that while the Yanks may be just 6-16 their L22 games, 12 of those losses have been by three runs or less. Here at Yankee Stadium, they are still outscoring the opposition by an impressive margin of 1.7 rpg. 

Milwaukee is your surprise leader in the NL Central, now 4.5 games ahead of the Cubs. But the current win streak of four games matches their longest of the season and tonight they send a struggling starter to the hill. That would be Junior Guerra, who in his L3 starts has a 9.64 ERA and 2.429 WHIP, obviously awful numbers. Guerra has also struggled all season outside of Miller Park, turning in a 6.19 ERA and 1.687 WHIP in three starts. He's failed to make it past four innings in B2B starts. The A.L. typically dominated Interleague Play and that's what I expect here. 6* NY Yankees

10* Run Line Baltimore (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Orioles +1.5. Baltimore and Minnesota are perhaps the American League's two most difficult teams to evaluate as we approach the All-Star Break. The O's 40-44 record doesn't sound all that bad, but when you consider they were playing .667 baseball through the first 33 games (22-11), clearly this is a team that appears to be in decline. Also, a -83 YTD run differential that is tied for the fourth worst in all of baseball paints an ugly portrait. But then there's the Twins, who have been outscored by 55 runs themselves, yet are somehow two games OVER .500! So while Baltimore's "market correction" has already taken hold, I anticipate the same to happen to Minnesota in the second half. Here, just to be safe, I'll take the "added insurance" that the RL provides. 

Baltimore certainly is not a good road team. Their record away from Camden Yards is 15-28. But, thankfully, Minnesota isn't a good home team. In fact, the Twins' 18-26 record at Target Field is currently the worst home mark of any team in baseball! To put that record in its proper perspective, note only four other teams are more than two games below .500 at home this season. Something to watch for in this series is offensive improvement from the road team. The Orioles just got swept in Milwaukee, scoring only three runs in three games, but that's a National League park where they were w/o the designated hitter.

Tonight's pitching matchup looks like a good one as it's Baltimore's best pitcher, Dylan Bundy, going up against Minnesota's second best pitcher, Jose Berrios. Berrios has been the one Twins' starter unaffected by the teams' woes at home, but lately he's also shown signs of regression w/ a 5.12 ERA and 1.345 WHIP his L3 turns overall. He gave up three home runs in his last outing, albeit on the road. Of course, so too did Bundy (allow 3 HR's his last start) and that was at home. However, there's been only one time all season where Bundy delivered consecutive non-quality outings. Another key is that the O's now have Zach Britton back in the bullpen. Hopefully, they'll be able to use him some tonight. Something I have yet to even mention - and this is arguably the key to the play - is that Baltimore has revenge here for a three-game sweep suffered at home back in late May. As any regular of mine will tell you, this is one of my favorite angles in handicapping MLB. I'll say the Orioles do no worse than a one-run loss tonight. 10* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5).

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): I'm well-aware of the fact that the Indians' home record (18-23) leaves a lot to be desired. In fact, no team has lost more at the betting window in its home games (-23.8 units!) and it's not even close. Still, you'd expect the reigning AL Champs to at least be able to dominate a lowly National League team like San Diego here at Progressive Field. Instead, what has happened (so far) in this series is that Cleveland has lost 1-0 (as -315 favorites on the ML!) and 6-2 (were -245). This is the continuation of another disturbing trend for the Tribe, that being a 2-11 record in Interleague Play. Typically, we see the American League dominate these matchups. Not since '03 has the Senior Circuit produced a winning record in IL play! Because of the last two days' results, we are now able to get a better price on Cleveland and I'll call for them to avoid what would be a very embarrassing sweep.

San Diego has the worst run differential in all of baseball right now as opponents have outscored them by 115 runs over the course of the year. The next worst team (Philadelphia) has a run diff of -93 and only five teams are below -60 in all of MLB. Even w/ the two wins here at Progressive Field, they're still just 14-26 on the road and getting outscored by 1.5 runs per game. So this is not a good baseball team and one (price permitting) that you'll want to fade regularly in the second half. Now, tonight they do have a pitcher (Dinelson Lamet) who has a 3-0 TSR (Team Start Record) his L3 starts w/ an outstanding 0.684 WHIP! But, curiously, the Padres have also scored for Lamet during this time, totaling 20 runs in those three wins. Anyone that follows the Padres knows that kind of offensive production is atypical as - for the year - they rank dead last in runs scored, team batting average and OBP.

So, what should have been an easy sweep for the Indians has now turned into a situation where they're trying to avoid the same fate. Despite their rather middling record (44-39), the Tribe still has the 7th best run differential in all of MLB (+54). Their problem has been a lack of clutch hitting as they are third worst in all of baseball when it comes to OPS w/ two outs & RISP. Rotational depth probably isn't what it should be either, yet I'll put my faith in Josh Tomlin here despite a 7.79 ERA and 1.999 WHIP his L3 starts. One could make the argument that Tomlin is probably "due" for a quality outing here and he won't face a worse offensive ballclub all season. He can also lean on a bullpen that remains one of baseball's very best. 8* Cleveland

8* Seattle (10:10 ET): The Mariners are looking to avoid a three-game sweep here. Kansas City, meanwhile, has climbed out of its rather massive early season hole and is now three games above .500. That's quite the achievement for a club that was eight games below the "Mendoza Line" on Memorial Day. Other than Boston, no other American League team has been hotter over the past week as KC has won three straight and five of six. But I see them failing to sweep here as not only has there been a key line move for this Wednesday matchup, but the home team will send out Ariel Miranda, who has pitched very well this season at Safeco Field. Good value on the M's. 

Miranda has a 2.56 ERA and 0.905 WHIP at home. Therefore, I think it's fair to say he's deserving of far better than a 4-4 team start record here. His last start (Friday) came on the road and he was equally sharp, tossing seven shutout innings of two-hit ball as Seattle rolled the Angels, 10-0. That lowered his WHIP to 0.750 his L3 starts. He's gone 7+ innings in all three starts. Here, he'll be facing a Royals lineup that is not only 26th in runs scored, but also 29th in on base percentage. Miranda has allowed 2 ER or less in 8 of his past 10 starts overall. Seattle has lost six in a row at home after a 25-13 start to the season here. That losing streak can't continue, right?

Kansas City counters w/ Jason Vargas, the AL leader in wins (12) and ERA (2.22). They are 12-4 in Vargas' 16 starts so far, so it definitely "says something" that Seattle is still favored on the money line tonight. Maybe it's because Vargas isn't quite as effective on the road. Or it could have something to do w/ the fact his strikeout numbers aren't all that impressive. In his L3 starts, Vargas' KW ratio is a rather pedestrian 9-6, hardly indicative of any kind of dominant pitcher. Only twice in his past 10 starts has he registered more than 5 K's. Note that the Royals have not swept any road series of three or more games all season! 8* Seattle

10* Texas (8:05 ET): I'm hoping that the "third time is the charm" here as the Rangers look to avoid what would be yet another three-game sweep at the hands of the red-hot Red Sox. Taking teams that have revenge for a prior series sweep (of 3+ games) is one of my favorite handicapping angles in MLB and has treated me quite well this week. But after getting swept up in Boston back in May, the Rangers have fared no better against them here in Arlington, dropping the first two games of this series. While they were able to take Monday's opener into extra innings (eventually lost 7-5), yday's game was never close and they ended up losing 11-4. As poor an outcome as that was, it "lays the groundwork" for a bounce back today, not just because the revenge angle is still in play, but also b/c home teams typically bounce back after a bad loss like the one Texas took on Tuesday. 

In past analysis, I've talked about (at great length) the Rangers' lack of "luck" compared to last year. Right now, they have a better run differential (+13) for the season than LY's team that won 95 games. The major difference is the record in one-run games as 2016 saw them go a historically good 36-11 while this year, they are 4-11. I admit that getting blown out w/ Yu Darvish on the mound has to be disheartening, but I believe the pieces are still in place for a rebound tonight. They too will face a weaker starting pitcher tonight, that being Doug Fister, who is making just his third start of the year for Boston. Fister has been okay so far, but hardly dominant. He also has issued six walks in 11 IP. Remember that the Rangers are still 7th in MLB in runs scored.

Starting for Texas here will be Andrew Cashner. He took a bat to the forearm his last start (at Cleveland) and had to exit early, but X-rays came back negative and he's set to go tonight. One thing you'll notice when examining Cashner's season is that he's largely been "feast or famine." While he did not fare well against the Red Sox at Fenway Park (allowed five runs in 5 IP), I look for him to do better at home where his ERA is 3.10 this season. Also, tonight marks the 1st time all year that Cashner is off B2B non-quality starts. So, he's "due" for a quality effort here. There have been three times this year where he's turned in a quality start as a dog of +160 or higher on the ML. Texas is 4-1 this season after allowing 10+ runs and 7-4 off three straight losses. Surprisingly, Boston is just 24-24 this season when off a win. 10* Texas

8* Colorado (8:40 ET): The Rockies returned home to Coors Field Monday somewhat w/ their "tails between their legs." They'd gone an ugly 1-8 on a nine-game road trip through the division and dropped 10 of 11 overall. But this homestand before the All-Star Break figured to signal a return to their early season success as they'd be hosting a pair of last place teams, Cincinnati and the White Sox. Sure enough, the first game went well as they beat the Reds 5-3 on Monday. But then came a bad 8-1 loss last night as the team failed to post B2B victories for what would have been the 1st time in over two weeks. Regardless, I expect they'll bounce back tonight in what could signal a strong close to the first half. The Reds are 13-26 on the road this year, getting outscored by 1.5 rpg.

We have two starting pitchers tonight that have been sharp of late. For Colorado, Jon Gray was the lone starter to get a win on the last road trip. His return from a two-plus-month stint could not have gone any better as he struck out 10 and allowed just two runs in six innings against Arizona. The team has now won all four of his starts in 2017, three of those coming as ML underdogs. But winning this one is perhaps the most important. With the two teams ahead of them (Dodgers & D'backs) currently playing each other, the Rockies can't afford to let this golden opportunity to make up ground in the division slip away. Something worth mentioning about last night's debacle is that they had just as many hits (10) as the Reds. Unfortunately, they were all singles. 

Scott Feldman goes for Cincy tonight and he's 3-0 w/ a 1.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP his L3 starts. He's made four quality starts in his L5 outings and has arguably been the Reds best pitcher in 2017. But on the road, he has an ERA of 4.74 and WHIP of 1.488 and Coors Field is obviously a difficult environment to pitch in. Also, I simply view him as being "due" for a bad outing. Feldman and the Reds also do not have history on their side here as they rarely have strung victories together over the last month. Their last win streak of 3+ games was nearly a month ago. Only three times this year have they won four or more straight games. They're a bad team and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Colorado's offense (6th in runs scored) explode here. 8* Colorado

8* Detroit (7:05 ET): The Tigers snapped the Giants' six-game win streak yday afternoon while getting a much-needed win themselves. The team from the Motor City is somewhat "in limbo" right now as they're still eight games below .500, but they've at least been respectable at home where they've gone 22-19 overall including 3-1 when priced at -175 or higher on the money line. They're 10-3 the L3 seasons as a ML home fave of -175 to -250. As for the Giants, recent six-game win streak aside, they have fallen on hard times here in 2017. They have the second worst record in all of baseball and the third worst run differential. Not only are they just 2-6 vs. the American League this season, but overall, they've been outscored by 1.4 rpg on the road. This is a good matchup for the host Tigers, who I'll back in this price range. 

Since returning home on 6.27, Detroit has alternated wins and losses over a seven-game span. That pattern continuing would obviously not be good for us, but thankfully I see the trend coming to an end here. Not just for all the reasons detailed above, but also they are simply the better team here, plus the AL typically has its way w/ the NL in Interleague Play. In the past 20 seasons, the NL has posted a winning record in IL play only FOUR times and the last time they did it was 2003! This year has been no different w/ an 88-71 record posted by the AL and that includes a terrible 2-10 mark by Cleveland. Take the Tribe out and things look even more impressive at 86-61! Detroit is only 3-5 vs. the Senior Circuit. The Giants are one of the lowest-scoring teams in all of baseball (28th in runs scored), so I'm not worried at all about them getting the DH here. Yesterday saw Buster Posey DH and he went 0 for 4 at the plate. 

It's not just the Giants' lack of hitting that should concern them. Opponents are batting .275 against them as well. That's the second highest opponents' batting average in all of MLB. Tonight's starter Ty Blach has certainly been a big offender w/ a 6.19 ERA and 1.937 WHIP his L3 turns. This will be his 1st time pitching in an AL park this year, but it should be noted that the one AL lineup he did face this year (at home), scored seven times against him in 5 2/3 innings and that was the Royals, who are also one of the lowest scoring teams in all of baseball. Detroit counters w/ Daniel Norris and while he's certainly no "Cy Young," he's shown glimpses of greatness. He should have little difficulty tonight facing a lineup that is 28th in OBP and last in slugging. 8* Detroit

10* Texas (8:05 ET): The Rangers season of ill-fortune continued last night w/ an extra-inning loss to the Red Sox by a score of 7-5. As discussed in great detail yday, after having incredibly good fortune in 2016, things have basically gone the exact opposite way for Texas this season. Last year, they won 95 games despite a run differential of only +8 as they turned in a historically great 36-11 record in one-run games. This season, they are three games below .500 despite having outscored the opposition by 20 runs as they are 6-14 in one-run games and keep in mind that doesn't even include last night as they fell by two runs in an 11-inning affair. The Rangers are now 0-4 head to head w/ the Red Sox this year, but that only makes the revenge angle that much stronger here. 

Turns out that pushing Yu Darvish back a day in favor of Martin Perez was too much to overcome for the Rangers last night. Perez wound up allowing five runs in 5 2/3 innings and walked more batters (4) than he struck out (3). He put his team in an early hole, though they were able to pull off a rare rally at the expense of Boston closer Craig Kimbrell, who gave up a HR for only the second time all year. The rally could have been even more had Dustin Pedroia not made an outstanding play in the field. It should also be pointed out that three of the Red Sox runs scored last night were unearned thanks to Rangers' reliever Tony Barnette throwing a wild pitch.

The issues we had w/ Perez last night should not be present here w/ Darvish as the latter has most looked great in 2017. He's allowed 3 ER or fewer in all but two of his last 16 starts. Given his 3.03 ERA and 1.084 WHIP, Darvish is deserving of far better than the current 8-9 team start record. The Rangers have actually lost the L3 times he has taken the mound despite him allowing just three runs and nine hits in his L13 IP (16-1 KW ratio). Darvish did NOT face Boston in the previous series between these teams, but in two home starts against them previously he has 26 strikeouts and a 1.72 ERA! I expect Darvish to outduel David Price here as Boston's starter has never fared all that well against Texas, turning in a 5.52 ERA in 13 career starts. Price also finds himself in the middle of some controversy for reportedly "making a scene" on a team flight by arguing w/ commentator Dennis Eckersley. In his four road starts this year, Price has a 5.32 ERA and 1.409 WHIP. Boston may be the hottest AL team right now (won five straight), but they won't have an answer for Darvish. 10* Texas

8* Run Line Chi White Sox (9:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the White Sox +1.5. Chicago was a fortunate winner Sunday as they rallied in the bottom of the eighth for a 6-5 win over Texas. It was their second rally in three days at the Rangers' expense and they've now won four of the last six games overall. While all four wins have been by one-run margins, here I feel safe in saying they'll be doing no worse than a one-run loss. This series w/ Oakland marks a revenge spot for the Pale Hose as last week saw them drop all three games at home to the A's. I feel that the rotation sets up a little better for them this go-around however, starting w/ Carlos Rodon tonight.

Rodon made his return to the rotation last week. His first start of the year did not go all that well due to control issues. Six walks contributed to him allowing three runs (all unearned) in 5 IP and the Sox lost 12-3 to the Yankees. But it should be noted that Rodon also only allowed two hits in his time out on the mound. Also, he was facing the Yankees. This is the A's, the consensus worst team in the American League, a notion backed up both by record and run differential. Not only does Oakland come into this series as losers of five in a row overall, but they've also dropped seven consecutive home games as well! This home losing streak doesn't surprise me in the least as the A's are being outscored here by more than one-half run per game despite a 22-19 record. 

Starting opposite Rodon will be Jarrell Cotton, who shut the White Sox out (for five innings) his last time out. That start was cut short due to a blister on his right thumb, which in turn caused him to miss his last turn in the rotation. So he's working on more than 10 days rest here, which isn't always a good thing. More over, this is the first time in his career that Cotton has won B2B starts. Given that and the fact the A's swept the White Sox last time around, I'd say that Cotton and Oakland are almost "due" to lose here. It certainly doesn't help Cotton's cause that this start comes at home where he has a 7.09 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in six starts. Something tells me that the White Sox hitters will be better prepared for him this go-around and it should also be pointed out that Cotton had only three strikeouts the last time. 8* Run Line Chi White Sox (+1.5)

8* Run Line Chi White Sox (9:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the White Sox +1.5. Chicago was a fortunate winner Sunday as they rallied in the bottom of the eighth for a 6-5 win over Texas. It was their second rally in three days at the Rangers' expense and they've now won four of the last six games overall. While all four wins have been by one-run margins, here I feel safe in saying they'll be doing no worse than a one-run loss. This series w/ Oakland marks a revenge spot for the Pale Hose as last week saw them drop all three games at home to the A's. I feel that the rotation sets up a little better for them this go-around however, starting w/ Carlos Rodon tonight.

Rodon made his return to the rotation last week. His first start of the year did not go all that well due to control issues. Six walks contributed to him allowing three runs (all unearned) in 5 IP and the Sox lost 12-3 to the Yankees. But it should be noted that Rodon also only allowed two hits in his time out on the mound. Also, he was facing the Yankees. This is the A's, the consensus worst team in the American League, a notion backed up both by record and run differential. Not only does Oakland come into this series as losers of five in a row overall, but they've also dropped seven consecutive home games as well! This home losing streak doesn't surprise me in the least as the A's are being outscored here by more than one-half run per game despite a 22-19 record. 

Starting opposite Rodon will be Jarrell Cotton, who shut the White Sox out (for five innings) his last time out. That start was cut short due to a blister on his right thumb, which in turn caused him to miss his last turn in the rotation. So he's working on more than 10 days rest here, which isn't always a good thing. More over, this is the first time in his career that Cotton has won B2B starts. Given that and the fact the A's swept the White Sox last time around, I'd say that Cotton and Oakland are almost "due" to lose here. It certainly doesn't help Cotton's cause that this start comes at home where he has a 7.09 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in six starts. Something tells me that the White Sox hitters will be better prepared for him this go-around and it should also be pointed out that Cotton had only three strikeouts the last time. 8* Run Line Chi White Sox (+1.5)

10* Texas (8:05 ET): There's a real sense of irony w/ this year's Rangers, who have outscored opponents by 22 runs despite being two games over .500. Last year's 95-win team (that earned homefield advantage in the AL Playoffs) only outscored its opponents by a measley EIGHT runs over the course of the season! The key to 2016 was a historically great 36-11 record in one-run games. This year, that record has dipped all the way down to 6-14, which is the WORST such percentage in all of baseball! Funny how that works out. This narrative figures to continue throughout the campaign as the Rangers clearly aren't going to win as many games as LY despite the fact they'll probably outscore opponents by a far greater margin.

Here, I believe the Rangers are a great play as they return home following a 4-6 road trip. They missed out on a chance to finish .500 on the trip by losing 6-5 to the White Sox, who committed FOUR errors! It was a brutal (one-run!) loss as reliever Joe Leclerc served up a two-run HR in the bottom of the eighth. Even more frustrating is the fact they outhit the White Sox, 9-5. Offense was not really a problem for the Rangers in Chicago as they totaled 22 runs in the three-game series. The bullpen was generally terrible, however, blowing late leads in both losses. That puts an onus on tonight's starter Martin Perez, who is coming off a brief stint on the DL. Originally, this was supposed to be Yu Darvish's turn in the rotation. But while going from Darvish to Perez is rightfully considered a "downgrade," note Perez did win his two starts previous to going on the DL. 

Texas is 22-17 at home this year and I believe this is a good spot to fade Boston, who is coming off a 15-1 win Sunday and sweep of the Blue Jays. Overall, it's been four straight wins for the Red Sox (who now lead the AL East by three games), but the Rangers have revenge here for a prior three-game sweep suffered at Fenway Park (back in May). Boston is just 22-21 on the road this season as opposed to 25-14 at home. Returning to the concept of regression to the mean, how about last year's AL Cy Young winner Rick Porcello? I don't think anybody felt he would duplicate LY's 22-4 campaign, but the regression has taken hold far more severely than even I or the most pessimisstic person could have anticipated. Porcello is now 1-5 over his L7 starts w/ a 6.07 ERA and for the year, he has a 5.06 ERA and 1.514 WHIP. Last time out, he became the first pitcher in all of MLB to reach double digit losses this season (4-10 in 17 starts). While he did beat Texas back on 5.23, he did so in spite of allowing five runs and 11 hits. With the ESPN cameras present, I expect an inspired effort from the home team here. 10* Texas

8* Run Line Miami (7:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Marlins +1.5. For the second week in a row, St. Louis finds itself starting a new week in the same spot, that being coming off the Sunday Night Game. But whereas they were coming off a win last week (8-4 over Pittsburgh, thus avoiding a sweep), here, they are off a 7-2 loss to Washington that denied them a chance at a sweep. Yes, same as last week, the Redbirds get to stay home here. But I'll be playing against them for the same reason I was ON them last Monday. The reason being, revenge, as in they had it last Monday hosting Cincinnati. Now Miami has it for a prior three-game sweep that took place back in early May. Marlins do no worse than a one-run loss here. 

Miami had lost four in a row going into yday, but avoided a sweep in Milwaukee w/ a 10-3 win. They pounded out 17 hits, their most in a game in nearly a month, and also got a strong start from Dan Straily. I'll be hoping for a similar complete performance tonight. As far as the bats go, I like their chances against Cards' starter Adam Wainwright, who has begun to regress big time. Wainwright still has a 7.20 ERA his L3 starts even after B2B quality efforts. That should tell you how bad the other one was and, in fact, he's twice allowed NINE runs over the course of his previous five starts. Both times were on the road, but a 1.301 WHIP at Busch Stadium tells me that he's a little bit fortunate to have a 5-1 record in his eight starts here (5-3 TSR). Speaking of fortunate, Wainwright managed to come away w/ a win over the Marlins (back on May 9th) despite allowing four runs in 5 1/3 innings. So Miami has gotten to him before.

As for the pitching side of the ledger, the Marlins will turn to Jeff Locke, who is still winless after six turns in the rotation. All were in June, but I believe it's critical to note that Locke rarely got any run support as five of the six starts saw his offense "back him up" w/ two or fewer runs. It's tough to win games that way. Outside of two blowout losses to the Cubs, however, Locke has pitched relatively well. Two of the losses have been by one run, a result which would do us just fine tonight. The Cardinals have done little in the way of hitting the past two games, totaling only four runs on nine hits w/ 25 strikeouts. 8* Run Line Miami (+1.5)

10* Washington (8:05 ET): The Nats have lost the first two of this three-game set, but thankfully have Max Scherzer to fall back on Sunday night. Scherzer is deserving of far better than a 10-6 team start record as his ERA is 2.06 and his WHIP is 0.783. Both of those numbers are MLB bests and somehow, it appears as if Scherzer is only getting stronger as the year progresses. He has a 0.82 ERA and 0.500 WHIP over his last three starts, although his last one marked the first time in over a month (seven starts) that he did not strikeout at least 10 batters. Scherzer does have a worthy adversary Sunday night in the form of Carlos Martinez, but he's simply the better pitcher here and provided the Nats' offense can wake up, I see them avoiding the sweep.

Even after losing 2-1 last night, Washington is still a very impressive 33-14 in night games this season. Losing skids like their current one (three games) simply don't come around often. There have been two times this year when they've lost four straight. But that's it. Of course, Scherzer is the definition of a "stopper" being that he's now allowed 1 or 0 ER in six of his past seven starts. Incredibly, he has allowed more than three earned runs just ONE time all season. That came back in late April. June saw him allow just two home runs, not to mention only 14 hits overall! He allowed eight runs total (actually unlucky given all the other numbers!) in 36 1/3 IP (five starts) and had a 51-6 KW ratio. A hit batsman, then a triple accounted for the lone run allowed his last time out. After that, he allowed only one more runner to reach base. The only reason he pitched only six innings is because the Nats had a sizable lead. 

St. Louis may have won four straight, but they're still two games below .500. They've done a good job keeping Washington's offense in check (so far) in the series, holding them to just a pair of runs, one of which was scored in the ninth yday (when up 2-0). But the Cards were actually outhit Saturday (6-4), so their own lineup isn't exactly hitting the cover off the ball and that figures to continue here facing Scherzer, who has allowed just four runs in 18 IP @ Busch Stadium. Now, Carlos Martinez certainly isn't bad and truthfully, that's putting things mildly. But he just isn't as good as Scherzer. Washington also has the better offense here as they average 5.5 runs per game and have hit 121 home runs. 10* Washington

8* Chi Cubs (1:10 ET): It's become readily apparent that this year's Cubs are nowhere near as dominant as the team that "ended the curse" last year (1st World Series win since 1908!). Here in Cincinnati, they've dropped the first two of a three-game set (I had the Reds Friday). That, right there, could be considered "Exhibit A" as to the difference between the Cubs this year and last. In 2016, they were 15-4 head to head w/ their overmatched NL Central rival and 28-10 against them since the start of the 2015 season. "Exhibit B" as to the Cubs' struggles this year would be the performance of Jake Arrieta, whose TSR (Team Start Record) is now just 8-8. He has a 4.67 ERA and 1.365 WHIP, which would have been considered unfathomable just a season ago. Despite all that I've mentioned here though, I still feel the Cubs have enough to avoid the sweep Sunday!

The Reds do have a winning record at home and seem better than last year's club, which had the worst overall record in the National League. Yet, despite what the rather minimal 4.5 game gap in the standings says, these two teams are still "miles apart" in terms of talent, at least from where I sit. Injuries have been a part of the problem for the Cubbies so far, but thankfully both Kris Bryant and Ben Zobrist are now back in the lineup. It should be pointed out that they led 3-0 yday. Admittedly, a three-run third is the ONLY inning in which they've scored in this series, but don't you think the offense is likely to turn things around against Tim Adelman, who has a 5.62 ERA and 1.750 WHIP his L3 starts? Adelman somehow got away w/ allowing five runs in five innings his last time out, including three home runs. I say "got away" b/c the Reds still somehow won that game, 8-6 over Milwaukee. But they'd also lost the last three times he went to the mound.

Arrieta's last start made headlines for all the wrong reasons as the Nationals stole SEVEN bases against him, prompting criticism from (now former!) teammate Miguel Montero. I anticipate him being highly motivated today. He's 6-2 in eight career starts vs. the Reds including a no-hitter last year. The Cubs have not been swept here in Cincy since '96 and despite their sub-.500 record remain the class of the division. 8* Chi Cubs

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): The Mariners came in and embarrassed the Angels last night, taking the series opener 10-0. But before we go and proclaim the home team "dead and buried" in this series, let's not be quick to forget that the M's had lost four in a row - all at home - including two to the horrid Phillies. While they've now been outscored 21-3 in the past two meetings (includes 11-3 loss back on May 4th), the Halos actually still sport a winning record against Seattle this year (4-3) and they also remain slightly ahead of them (by one-half game!) in the AL West standings. A home team that gets embarrassed in the fashion that LA was last night is obviously going to be highly motivated to exact revenge and that's what I'm counting on here. 

Prior to his last time out, Angels starter Ricky Nolasco had lost seven consecutive decisions and his TSR (team start record) in his L10 starts was 0-10. Certainly, no one anticipated that streak to end Monday when he faced the Dodgers as a massive +205 dog on the ML. But it did! Nolasco threw 6+ scoreless innings of five-hit ball in what was his best outing of 2017 to date. While it was not an overall good month of June, Nolasco has had his share of quality outings this year, one of them coming here at home vs. Seattle back on 4.8 when he allowed just two runs and four hits in six innings of work. Note that the # of runs Seattle scored yday equaled the number of total runs scored their previous four games. This team is just 15-24 on the road this season, getting outscored by nearly a full run per game. That's AFTER factoring in last night's result. 

Symbolic of the Mariners' struggles away from home is the pitching of tonight's starter Sam Gaviglio. While the 27-year old rookie has posted a 2.00 ERA in five starts at Safeco Field, his road ERA is just 5.51. I think a 6-2 team start record for Gaviglio is a tad bit misleading as his KW ratio his L2 starts is a poor 4-7. He has not faced the Angels this season. Though last night was certanly an undesirable result, let's also recall that other recent poor offensive nights can be explained by a pretty brutal scheduling stretch. The Angels just had to play the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers before this series and the fact they went 6-4 against three of the best teams in all of baseball is to be commended. Gaviglio has yet to make it past the sixth inning in any start in his rookie season and that means the respective bullpens have to come into play, an area where the Angels have a slight advantage. (Seattle's bullpen ERA/WHIP on the road is 4.91/1.370). 8* LA Angels

8* Winnipeg (9:00 ET): Being that the CFL is a nine-team league, one team is off every week. In Week 1, that was the Blue Bombers, who are eager to build off LY's pretty decent 11-7 SU campaign that saw them qualify for the postseason. Their first opponent will be Saskatchewan, a team I played in Week 1. Catching a generous number, the Rough Riders stayed within the number throughout and eventually lost by just a single point at Montreal. The Riders did outgain the Als in that one, ever so slightly (395-332), but it still wasn't enough as a late FG miss sealed their fate. Here, there's been a change in who's favored, which is always a bit of an interesting proposition. To me, the value resides w/ the rested Blue Bombers.

The Riders will not be lacking for motivation in this, their home opener. Tonight should be special in Regina as the doors are officially opened at brand new Mosiac Stadium. But, something we see across all sports (especially NFL) is that often times, home teams tend to struggle in new stadiums. Might the "pomp and circumstance" tonight in Regina serve as a distraction for the home team? Remember that this was the worst team in the CFL last year at 5-13 straight up and they were outscored by 180 points over the course of the year. They were swept by Winnipeg and while they still did manage to go 2-0 ATS, such as SU/ATS split is no longer possible here now that they're the slight favorite Sat night. Note that they were 4.5-pt dogs for LY's annual visit from the Bombers.

Winnipeg has reason for optimism entering '17. They were 10-3 SU w/ Matt Nichols at the helm and the starting QB is more than ready to go for tonight's season opener. The Bombers also had the best road record in the league LY at 7-2 straight up. I give them the edge at the all-important "pivot" (QB) position w/ Nichols over the wildly inconsistent Kevin Glenn. Glenn did not throw an INT last week, but let's see if that's still the case after this week when he faces the defense that led the league in turnovers last year w/ 59. In its lone game off the bye last year w/ Nichols at the helm, the Bombers went into Montreal and won 32-18. 8* Winnipeg

10* Under Rays/Orioles (4:05 ET): Here's something I wrote in yday's analysis on the Rays-Orioles series opener. "This team {Orioles} is being "propped up" by an extremely fortunate 9-1 record in extra inning games this year, something that simply won't be sustained. I'm on the road team, who is the better team, in this one." Not to "pat myself on the back," but that call on the Rays turned out to be pretty spot on as they won an extra-inning game, 6-4, after tying things up in the top of the ninth. Now, at the same time, it was almost a BRUTAL break for Under bettors, who were sitting on a 3-2 game entering the ninth inning. It could have been the FIFTH consecutive time these AL East rivals conspired to go Over against one another, but thanks to a high O/U line (same as today), the Over trend came to a halt. I look for this game to have even less scoring. Take the Under.

A big reason why tonight's O/U line is again so high is that neither starting pitcher is in fine form. Rays starter Jake Odorizzi lost to the O's his last time out, giving up 2 HR's and four runs total in 5 1/3 IP. It was his fifth straight start giving up at least 3 ER. But there have been two starts in that stretch where he's been undone by unearned runs. In between starts here, Odorizzi has reportedly been working on his mechanics and I trust skipper Kevin Cash that we should be getting a much better start here today. The Rays have gone Under now in four consecutive contests overall and while the offense "woke up" late last night, you still have to consider that before the game-winning HR by Steven Souza, the team had scored just nine runs total in their last 36 innings.

While Baltimore scored four times last night, it wasn't nearly enough and one of those runs came in a fruitless rally attempt in the bottom of the 10th. They finished w/ only five hits for the game, so there was some definite "cluster luck" involved w/ them scoring four times in the game. Two of their runs came on solo homers, the other two were a result of runners getting into scoring position due to errors made by the Rays. Of course, TB had some of its own fortunate scoring as in the top of the ninth, it was a walk, balk, then a wild pitch that led to them tying the game. The Orioles actually got a quality start from Chris Tillman last night, but they have a better pitcher on the mound today in the form of Dylan Bundy, who has been the most reliable member of the rotation so far this season. Bundy allowed just three runs on five hits when he faced TB last weekend, the 14th time (in 16 tries) that the right-hander has posted a quality start this year. Furthermore, other than allowing 4 HR's, Bundy has had the Rays' number in '17, winning both starts due to allowing only five runs and nine hits total in 13 1/3 IP. 10* Under Rays/Orioles

10* Montreal (10:00 ET): Right off the bat, this seems like a heavy "tax" to lay in a battle of 1-0 teams. Granted, Montreal only won its game by a single point at home, 17-16, over a Saskatchewan side that was generally considered the weakest in the entire CFL last year. But it took a last second FG for Edmonton to prevail in B.C. in Week 1, 30-27, after blowing all of a double digit lead. Coming home is obviously big for the Eskimos and they have to feel confident here knowing that they've won and covered seven straight meetings w/ the Als. But back in their customary role of underdog, Montreal is offering a ton of value in Week 2 as I don't expect them to go down easy, if they even go down at all! Take the points.

The Alouettes were not favored many times in 2016 (just THREE times total and never by more than a field goal!). So I had no problem fading them as seven-point chalk in the opener last week. While that ticket cashed wire-to-wire, I have to admit that I came away impressed w/ the Als defense, which - for a second straight year - appears set to dominate. Last year, they allowed the fewest number of points per game in the Eastern Division and second fewest in the entire league (behind only Calgary, obviously). Allowing only 16 pts in the opener was certainly a good sign, especially when juxtaposed w/ the Edmonton defense which struggled last year and gave up 27 pts in Wk 1. 

Close games have been the rule and not the exception so far this year in the CFL. Four of the five games have been decided by one score (the exception being my 10* Game of the Week for Week 1 - Toronto 32-15 over Hamilton). So that's another reason to want to grab the points here. Last year did see the Eskimos win both meetings by double digits, but I anticipate a far closer affair here. QB Darian Durant didn't post blowaway numbers in the Week 1 victory over the Rough Riders, but he did manage to complete 20 of 31 pass attempts and he wasn't sacked nor did he throw an interception. Expect the Als to be a gritty underdog in this one, keep the game low scoring and as was the case w/ their opponent last week, keep the game within the number throughout. 10* Montreal

8* Run Line Cincinnati (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Reds +1.5. With all new series set to begin Friday in MLB, we can again begin to explore the "revenge option," which has treated us so well, not just throughout the year, but this week especially. It's really simple. You just look for teams that have revenge for a prior series sweep of at least three games. Here, the Reds happen to owe the Cubs quite a bit of payback, but in particular for a three-game sweep that occurred at Wrigley back in mid-May. Since the resurrection of the Cubs' franchise under GM Theo Epstein/Manager Joe Maddon began to hold, they have completely dominated the Reds, going 33-11 against them since the start of the 2015 season, including 20-5 since the start of last year and 5-1 here in '17. But this has hardly been the same dominant Cubs team we've become accustomed to seeing in recent years. Therefore, I feel confident in saying the Reds will do no worse than a one-run loss here.

Cincy had some "momentum" (hate that word!) going into yday as they'd beaten the first place Brewers back to back games. It was their first time winning B2B games since a sweep of the Cardinals back on June 5th-8th, believe it or not. Since then, the team has proceeded to go just 5-14 its L19 games, but at least they're at home here where their record is 21-19, resulting in a net gain of 6.9 units at the betting window. Last year, the Reds were the biggest money-loser in all of baseball, so it makes sense that they've been a better return on investment this year (progression to the mean!), even if it's only at home. Coming off B2B quality outings, Scott Feldman gets the start today. His last time starting at Great American Ballpark saw him toss seven scoreless innings of four-hit ball. 

Yes, the Reds did lose 11-3 yesterday to Milwaukee, costing them a sweep. But I don't think even the most pessimisstic Cubs prognosticator could have predicted the reigning World Series Champs would be entering the final day of June just one game over .500 and only 6.5 games ahead of the Reds. The Cubs are actually fortunate to be above the Mendoza Line entering tonight as they needed a three-run rally to beat the Nationals last night. They still have a losing road record (18-23) for the season, however, not to mention 28th in net units in all of MLB (-16.3). The starting rotation is nowhere near as strong this year as it was last and that's evident by the likes of Mike Montgomery getting regular work. Granted, Montgomery certainly hasn't pitched poorly by any means (1.71 ERA in four starts!). But the team has actually found a way to lose three of those four starts and that's against a pretty weak slate of opponents. The Cubs are among the MLB leaders in # of one-run games played w/ 24. 8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)

10* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): Last weekend in Tampa, the Orioles took two of three from the Rays, which is surprising not only b/c they were pretty sizable underdogs on the ML for all three games, but also due to the O's rather dramatic home vs. road splits this season. While they are coming off a surprising 4-2 road trip overall (also took two of three from Toronto), Baltimore is still only 14-24 on the road this year as opposed to 25-15 at Camden Yards. So, you might now be set to conclude that the O's are in good shape this weekend due to getting the Rays in their home ballpark. But let's not be fooled by that home record, okay? Incredibly, the O's have been outscored here at Camden Yards, contributing to an overall -65 run differential that's second worst in the American League and fifth worst in all of baseball. This team is being "propped up" by an extremely fortunate 9-1 record in extra inning games this year, something that simply won't be sustained. I'm on the road team, who is the better team, in this one. 

I've said it before and I'll say it again - "what a difference a year makes for Chris Tillman." The Baltimore starter ranked third in all of baseball in net units earned in 2016, but his ERA and WHIP were not indicative of that kind of success, so it's no surprise to have seen him fall pretty hard this serason. But the fall from grace has been even uglier than expected as he comes into tonight sporting atrocious numbers, such as an 8.39 ERA and 2.182 WHIP for the season. Believe it or not, he's actually been even worse lately, having allowed five or more runs in six consecutive starts. Shockingly, the O's have won the last two (despite Tillman not lasting longer than 4 1/3 IP either time!), but that's clearly not a sustainable blueprint for victory. Note that there is a chance Tillman may be scratched here as his wife is expecting the couple's first child. If that's the case, Dylan Bundy will start in Tillman's place. If that happens, this play will still stand.

Part of the reason the play would still stand is that TB will go w/ Jacob Faria, who is 4 for 4 in terms of quality starts so far this season. If it's Bundy going, then Faria would have "immediate revenge" as those two faced off last Saturday w/ the Orioles winning a misleading 8-3 final. Faria had seven strikeouts against just one walk, but was eventually doomed by the Rays' bullpen. Previously, Faria had allowed just 3 total ER in his first three starts (19 2/3 IP). If it's Tillman and not Bundy, obviously that's okay as it's a weaker opposing starting pitcher. Bottom line is that TB is the better team here w/ the pitching edge. They are a perfect 3-0 this season following a shutout loss (lost 4-0 last night at Pittsburgh) and the offense should pick things up this weekend after having to play in a NL park (no DH!) the last series. 10* Tampa Bay

10* Over Dodgers/Angels (10:05 ET): The first three games of this series have all stayed Under the total, including the teams exchanging shutout victories at Chavez Ravine Monday and Tuesday. It was the Angels winning another low-scoring affair last night (3-2), but let us not forget that this is a NL team (Dodgers) playing in an AL park (DH play) and said Senior Circuit club has little difficulty scoring to begin win (Dodgers average 4.6 rpg). Yes, Clayton Kershaw is on the mound for Dodger Blue this evening, which is why tonight's O/U line figures to close as the lowest for the four games this week. But, remember, because Kershaw is pitching, there's a good chance we'll have to play the full nine innings here (strong likelihood road team is leading entering the ninth) and often times, that can be the difference between a game staying Under or going Over. Take the Over.

Certainly, the Dodgers are in the discussion for best overall team in the league. They've outscored the opposition by 137 runs so far (#1 in MLB) and are 52-28, which is the best record in the American League. Despite dropping two of the first three games to the Angels, they've still won 17 of 20 overall and not dropped B2B games a single time during that span. They've also won the last TEN starts made by Kershaw! Typically, Kershaw has been fantastic during this stretch, but he is only two starts removed from allowing a career-worst four home runs to the Mets. Also remember that he gets to pitch in the #1 run suppression ballpark in MLB, Dodger Stadium. The only time Kershaw has had to start in an AL park this year was at Cleveland on June 13th and that game easily went Over as Kershaw matched a season-low w/ only 4 K's. 

For Angels' starter JC Ramirez, things have generally been "feast or famine." Last time pitching here at home, he was tagged for five runs in just three innings and he also walked four batters in that game. Three of his previous five starts have seen him allow at least four runs in five innings or fewer. He's alternated "good and bad" starts here in June, so considering he's off one of the "good" ones, it seems logical to conclude he might very well be in store for another "bad" one. Both teams' games average 8.5 runs for the season, so there is value here. 10* Over Dodgers/Angels

10* San Diego (10:10 ET): Of the four revenge minded teams I took yday (Cin, Tex, Oak, SD), the Padres were the lone one that was unable to exact. No matter; I'll just come back and "double down" on them today. While they certainly profile as one of the worst teams in all of baseball, a home win over a team like the Braves is not something that should be difficult to achieve. Granted, last night, they were shut out by a rookie (Sean Newcomb). But they also collected nearly as many hits as did the Braves (7 vs. 8) and were it not for some very disputable calls from the umps, the final score could have turned out much differently. Newcomb certainly appeared to benefit from home plate umpire Lance Barrett's generous strike zone and what looked like a 1st inning HR by Wil Myers was turned into a ground-rule double. 

Lost in the Padres' loss Tuesday was another strong outing from Jhoulys Chacin, who for the third time in four starts went at least seven innings and retired the final 10 batters he saw. Fortunately, San Diego should again be able to lean on its starter tonight. That would be Luis Perdomo, who is holding opposing hitters to a .197 average w/ RISP this season. His last three starts, most notably the last one, have all been lights out. While he did walk five batters last Friday here at home vs. Detroit, he didn't allow a single run in six innings of work and also allowed just two hits. He's gone at least six innings while allowing 3 ER or fewer four of his last five starts.

Meanwhile, Atlanta is left to turn to 44-year old Bartolo Colon, who is nearing the end of the line (if he hasn't reached it already!). One would have to think that if Coloon doesn't pitch well here, it might be all over for him. In 59 IP this season, opponents are batting .332 against him w/ 11 home runs. That's not good. Nor is the fact that he's allowed six or more runs in 5 of his 12 starts this season. Overall, he has a 7.78 ERA and 1.712 WHIP. This will be his first time pitching since 6.5 (when he allowed 8 runs in just 3 2/3 IP) as he was just activated off the 10-day DL (oblique). But while that stint may have allowed his oblique to heal, it probably takes more than 10 days to fix his awful pitching! The Braves are 0-2 off a shutout victory this season. This is a rare chance to unload on the Padres. 10* San Diego.

10* NY Yankees (8:10 ET): The first two games of this four-game set have seen the teams exchange one-run victories. Last night saw the Yankees again fail to win B2B games for what would have been the 1st time in over two weeks. They lost (4-3) in walk-off fashion as their typically outstanding bullpen suffered a rare meltdown. After taking the lead w/ a three-run eighth, the Yanks allowed three runs themselves over the final two frames, two of those coming in the bottom of the ninth. An issue was that Aroldis Chapman was unavailable and hence Dellin Betances had to come on instead. It was only Betances' second blown save of the season. Despite what we've seen in this series, I remain a believer in the Yanks' pen and overall they are a much better team than the White Sox. I'm on the road team here.

Last night's loss dropped the team wearing pinstripes one full game behind the rival Red Sox in the American League East. This despite the Yankees owning the vastly superior run differential (+95 vs. +40). In fact, only three teams (Houston, Dodgers, Arizona) throughout baseball have outscored their opponents by a wider margin this season than have the Yanks. A West Coast swing is what begat the current slide as the team is now just 3-10 its L13 games overall. But I view this as merely a "speedbump" rather than a signal of some long-term trend. On the other hand, despite their somewhat respectable -4 run differential, the White Sox are still 10 games below .500. Given that this was expected to a rebuilding year on the South Side of the Windy City, I do NOT expect the White Sox to continue to be competitive moving forward as their surprising pitching staff is due to fall off.

Tonight will mark the 2017 debut of Carlos Rodon for the White Sox. Given what the starting rotation has pulled off so far this season, I can see how the team might be feeling optimistic w/ Rodon's return. But beware of a starter in his return from a long stint on the DL, something we saw w/ Cole Hamels of Texas Monday night. Also, Rodon's career resume against the Yankees isn't good as he has a 9.64 ERA in three previous starts. The Yankees counter w/ Masahiro Tanaka, who may be having a bit of a "down year," but he also turned in eight scoreless innings his last time out. It was the fifth time in 15 starts that he allowed 1 or 0 ER. Tanaka has NEVER lost to Chicago, going 3-0 all-time. I remain unconcerned w/ the "bullpen issues" we've seen from the Yanks in the first two games. 10* New York

8* San Diego (10:10 ET): Rarely will you get an endorsement of the Padres from me, but here they have revenge for a four-game sweep suffered in Atlanta back in April. They also had won three in a row before losing to the Tigers Sunday. The Braves are the rare opponent, that on paper, San Diego should beat (hence the money line here). That this will be just the 17th time that SD has been favored on the ML this year is certainly telling. They have been a .500 team here at Petco Park and the starting pitching matchup actually looks to be in their favor for Tuesday's opener. Atlanta had won four straight and seven of eight before getting shut out Sunday, so they're due to slow down.

The Braves have certainly had a chance to get acquainted w/ their brand new stadium here in June. This series will be just their third on the road all month and second in the last three weeks. Their L10 games were all at home, so hence the minor turnaround. But let's see how they now perform out on the road. My guess is "not that well" and tonight's opener actually marks the first road start for Sean Newcomb at the big league level. Therefore, take his 1.96 ERA and 1.037 WHIP w/ a grain of salt. Troubling is that Newcomb was able to turn in those peformances, but the team still lost two of his first three road starts. I don't see him continuing this early prowess.

The Padres will counter w/ Jhoulys Chacin, who has turned in three consecutive quality starts himself (2.70 ERA and 0.950 WHIP) and has a fantastic 0.883 WHIP for the season here at Petco Park (seven starts). Given that WHIP, I'd say he's owed a better team start record than 4-3. Opponents are batting just .161 against him at home. His last start at home, the only runs he gave up in seven innings came on a pair of solo home runs. Last time out, he allowed just two runs and five hits again, this time over six innings. That was in Wrigley though. So in Chacin's last three starts, he's allowed only 13 hits total (20 IP). One final thing to note is that Atlanta is just 5-24 its L29 games vs. the NL West. 8* San Diego

8* Run Line Oakland (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the A's +1.5. As is the case w/ the Reds elsewhere in this package, I don't have a ton of positive things to say about the A's right now. But like Cincinnati, they have revenge for a prior sweep here. They are now just 1-8 head to head vs. the division rival Astros, not too surprising considering the massive gap between the two in the standings. But last week, Oakland suffered the rare four-game sweep at home. They weren't all that competitive either. But not only does the team have revenge here, so does starting pitching Sean Manaea (one of their best) against Michael Fiers as these two opposed each other in the third of the four games last week. It would not surprise me in the least to see the A's pull off a massive upset here, but just to be "safe," I'll take them on the run line. 

One positive thing we can say about the A's is their weekend performance. After getting swept at home by the Astros, they hit the road and took all three games from the White Sox. Now, there's obviously a big difference between facing one of the American League's best and one of its worst. But the A's were pretty dominant in the Windy City over the weekend, outscoring the White Sox 18-5. That sets them up pretty well here. Yes, they had previously struggled - badly - on the road all year. But, curiously, Houston has not played worse at home than they have on the road! While their 29-9 road record is MLB's best, they're "only" 23-16 here at Minute Maid Park, including 9-10 their L19 games. They've only won two of their previous six home series. A major reason for this is they seem to get on base w/ far less frequency. Their OBP drops .048 at home and as a result they've scored 78 fewer runs here.

That all sounds promising for Manaea, who pitched well against Houston his last time out. He allowed only three runs and seven hits in 6 IP last Wednesday w/ eight strikeouts. He's working on ample rest here and has a 2.23 ERA in six career starts vs. the Astros. Manaea's 0.990 WHIP on the road (six starts) this year is also encouraging. Yes, Fiers has been red hot for Houston. But can he keep it up? Entering June, his numbers weren't that great. Eventually, the Athletics HAVE to beat the Astros and looking at the series as a whole, tonight looks like the best opportunity. 8* Run Line Oakland (+1.5)

8* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): This will the third city in three days for the Reds after playing a make-up game yday in St. Louis. But at least they're back at home where they've posted a winning record (19-18) this season. I did play against them yday and was rewarded for doing so w/ an easy 8-2 win by the Cardinals. But that was a situation that wasn't exactly ideal for St. Louis either as they had a very short turnaround after playing the Sunday night game (yday was a day game). The main reason I was on the Redbirds there was that they had revenge for a prior four-game sweep at the hands of the Reds (here at Great American Ballpark). Now the proverbial "shoe is on the other foot" here as it is the Reds looking to exact revenge for a three-game sweep suffered in Milwaukee back in April.

The Brewers come into Tuesday still leading the NL Central by one game over the Cubs. But I don't think that anybody, myself included, feels that will hold. If anything, the Brew Crew have been able to take advantage of a weak division as the most games they've been above .500 this year is seven and that was back on May 19th. They are 7-1 head to head vs. the last place Reds, but note they lost money against this division rival each of the previous two seasons. The Brew Crew are simply a mediocre ballclub disguised as a first place one as is evident by the fact they were nearly just swept in Atlanta over the weekend. Starting tonight for them will be Junior Guerra whose 23-22 KW ratio over his L6 starts is worrisome. He has a 1.50 WHIP his L3 starts. 

The Reds have been in a bad way for several weeks now, dropping 14 of their last 16. But I do think that, at least in the short-term, they're due to bounce back a bit. Tim Adelman is the starter tonight and I expect him to outpitch Guerra. Believe it or not, but Adelman has allowed 3 ER or less in 11 of his 13 starts this season including six straight! So it's very deceiving that his team start record in those L6 starts is just 2-4. Milwaukee comes in averaging just 3.4 rpg its last seven contests, so it's a lineup Adelman should be able to handle. As I played against them yesterday, I obviously don't have a ton of positive things to say about the Reds right now, but the revenge angle remains one of my favorites and - like last night's play on the Giants over the Rockies - it's certainly telling that the Reds are ML favorites here. 8* Cincinnati.

8* Run Line Texas (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the +1.5 w/ the Rangers. What happened? Last night's play on Texas looked like a surefire winner as they jumped out to a 7-1 lead after two and 9-2 lead entering the bottom of the fourth. However, starting in the bottom of the fifth, the Indians exploded, scoring four, five and three runs over the next three innings. The end result was a 15-9 win by the home team and not only did the Rangers fail to cash on the money line, even the RL was not a winner. It sure seemed as if Cole Hamels ran out of gas early as he allowed seven runs, four of them coming in the fifth. It was Hamels' return from a two-month stint on the DL and given his offense scored nine times for him, it was certainly a most disappointing result. But I'll come back w/ Texas tonight as they still have revenge against Cleveland for a previous three-game sweep. They'll do no worse than a one-run loss here.

Cleveland had been swept over the weekend by Minnesota and entered Monday w/ a 15-20 record at home, which is actually second worst in the entire American League (ahead of only Minnesota). Obviously, there will be a perception of last night being a "breakthrough," but I'd still be concerned that the team fell behind so big w/ one of its better pitchers on the mound. Certainly, the offense was due to pick it up after going 1 for 23 w/ RISP in the Twins' series. But nights like last night don't happen very often. True to the overall team form, tonight's starter Mike Clevinger has an 0-3 TSR at Progressive Field this season w/ a 5.62 ERA and 1.500 WHIP. This will be his first time starting here in awhile as his L3 turns have all been on the road. He didn't last more than five innings in any of them, which is another problem.

The Rangers will give the baseball to Tyson Ross, who isn't exactly Cy Young himself. He's off a bad start against Toronto last week in just his 2nd outing of 2017. But he's had Cleveland's number somewhat through the years, turning in a 1.77 ERA in four appearances against them, three of those being starts. Ross can also probably expect ample run support here given that the Rangers' offense comes into tonight averaging 6.7 rpg its last seven contests. While "only" .500, Texas has outscored its opponents by 23 runs this year. Cleveland may again be w/o manager Terry Francona (sick) here and that should have some effect, right? 8* Run Line Texas (+1.5)

10* Under Rays/Pirates (7:05 ET): We have an AL team visiting a NL park, so right there, the automatic lean is to the Under due to the loss of the DH. Throw in the fact that the Rays have been scoring far more than per usual lately, my feeling is that much stronger. They come into Pittsburgh off six straight Overs, having either allowed or scored six runs in all of those games. But we're playing w/ a whole different set of rules here as the pitcher will come up to bat the next three games and it's not like the Pirates have done a ton of scoring here at PNC Park this season either (3.8 rpg) and overall they're batting just .231 the last seven days. For the year, they are 25th in MLB in runs scored. TB, surprisingly, is one of the top Over teams in baseball, but the number and situation here dictate a play in the other direction. Take the Under.

Alex Cobb will toe the rubber for the Rays Tuesday and he's in fine form right now. Seven of his last ten starts have been quality, including each of the last three where he has produced a 2.29 ERA. The fact that the Over is 7-2 in his nine road starts is somewhat misleading and his numbers away from home remain skewed due to one really poor showing in Seattle last month. Note that Cobb has pitched in just one NL park previously this season and not coincidentally it was his best outing of the year as he threw six shutout innings (at Miami). The Rays' bullpen, specifically closer Alex Colome, comes off a poor performance over the weekend in Baltimore, but I expect that group to improve.

Pittsburgh counters w/ Trevor Williams, who has a tremendous disparity between ERA (5.22) and WHIP (1.064) here at home, which is usually a sign that a pitcher is due for better results. He was sharp last week in Milwaukee, going six innings while allowing just three runs on six hits. He also struck out a season-high seven batters. Prior to allowing eight runs in Sunday night's loss to St. Louis, the Bucs had given up four runs or fewer in six straight games. While they've had bullpen issues of their own this season, moving Felipe Rivero into the closer role has certainly alleviated some of that. He's 3 for 3 in save opportunities so far, sixth in MLB in holds (14) & has a 0.70 WHIP. 10* Under Rays/Pirates

10* San Francisco (10:05 ET): I don't think that there's been a more one-sided division rivalry this year (in terms of head to head results) than Colorado-San Francisco. The surprising Rockies are 10-1 H2H vs. the Giants, which certainly goes a long way in explaining the massive 20-game gap that exists in the NL West standings between the two teams. Of course, SF has more issues than just struggling against Colorado as they were just swept here at home by the Mets over the weekend. This perennial playoff contender now finds itself in the unusual position of having the second worst overall record (Phillies) in the sport as well as the second worst run differential (Padres). So, you might be surprised to learn that they are FAVORED tonight on the money line. I am not. The revenge angle (one of my favorites) is in play here and the Rockies arrive in town on their own five-game losing streak. Plus, we have Jeff Samardzija pitching for the Giants.

Samardzija is a real key here. While his overall numbers may not "wow" you, his other-worldly 77-3 KW ratio (not a misprint!) over his L10 starts certainly should. He's allowed 3 ER or less in eight of those and while one of the two he didn't was against Colorado, that was also at Coors Field. He is 0-3 against the Rockies this year, but two of the starts were on the road and he was a lot better in the one here at AT&T Park. For seemingly the entirety of the franchise's existence, Colorado has seen its offensive production plummet outside of Coors Field. This year, they average 4.6 rpg on the road.

The Rockies only scored seven runs total in three games at Dodgers Stadium over the weekend and six of those came in yday's loss. That 12-6 defeat does not set them up well today as their record after allowing 10+ runs the previous game is 2-6 this season. Though it's been a tight three-horse race in the NL West all season, a pretty clear cut case can be made that Colorado is the weakest of the three teams as they trail - significantly - both the Dodgers and D'bcks in run differential. Of course, all five losses during the current streak came to those two teams. They've obviously had the Giants' number in 2017, but like their road record, doesn't that have to regress a little? Starter German Marquez has dazzled of late, but I'm still a skeptic as his road WHIP is 1.400. 10* San Francisco

8* Run Line Texas (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rangers +1.5. This would also be Cole Hamels' long-awaited return from a two-month stint on the DL (strained right oblique). He looked good in two rehab assignments, turning in a 1.04 ERA. Considering the Rangers have been able to maintain a .500 record w/o their top pitcher, one could make the case here that they're in pretty good shape moving forward. Hamels and Yu Darvish, both of whom will pitch in this series, are a formidable 1-2 combo at the front end of the rotation. The team, now 11-5 overall since June 9th, has actually outscored its opponents (+29 run differential) by a wider margin this year than they did in LY's 95-win campaign (only +8). A key to that has been their record in one-run games as LY they were a record-setting 36-11 while 2017 has seen them go just 5-12. But that's where the added insurance of the RL comes into play as I'll say Texas does no worse here than one-run defeat in Hamels' return.

Cleveland's curious struggles at home continued over the weekend as they were swept by the Minnesota Twins and shut out twice (outscored 13-2 overall!). That came on the heels of a 7-1 road trip, so there's no denying as to just how disappointing the weekend result was. For the year, the reigning AL Champs are 24-15 on the road, but only 15-20 here at Progressive Field. At -19.5 units YTD, no team has lost more money at the betting window than the Indians and it's really not even close. Another troubling sign here is the Tribe's 0-3 record this year after being shut out the previous game. Sunday saw them finish w/ nine hits, but no runs as they were 1 for 23 w/ RISP for the series. Starting tonight will be Carlos Carrasco, who certainly gives the team a "fighting chance," but note his 1.246 WHIP his L3 starts is a bit of a warning sign that the 1.53 ERA is a little misleading. He is 2-3 lifetime vs. Texas w/ a 5.95 ERA. 

The Rangers are coming off a one-run win Sunday, 7-6 over the Yankees, that saw them have to hold on after taking a 7-0 lead. The bullpen may continue to be a bit of a concern, but I certainly don't think Hamels is and at this price, he's too good to pass up. His five starts in April saw him turn in "the usual" numbers (3.03 ERA, 1.133 WHIP) and while strikeouts were down, he never allowed more than 3 ER in any start. He did lose to Cleveland, 9-6, in his first start of the year. But note that he was actually in line for the win before the bullpen allowed a Francisco Lindor grand-slam in the top half of the ninth. That capped a three-game sweep for the Tribe in Arlington, but now the revenge angle kicks in and given how the home team has struggled all year at Progressive Field, I'll gladly take the +1.5 here. 8* Run Line Texas (+1.5)

8* St. Louis (4:15 ET): Many times, the team coming off the Sunday Night games is at a slight disadvantage playing on Monday as its opponent has had more lead in time. But despite this being an even quicker turnaround than per usual, I don't really feel as if that's the case for the Cardinals today in this make-up affair w/ the Reds. First off, they get to stay at home. Secondly, they have a big-time case of revenge on their minds after suffering a shocking sweep in a four-game series at Great American Ballpark earlier this month. Speaking of shocking, that sweep put the Reds at 7-2 head to head in this NL Central rivalry this season, but I feel it's them at the slight disadvantage as they've got to fly out to another city for one day after visiting Tampa Bay and Washington last week (went 2-4). With the revenge angle kicking in, this is an easy call.

For those "new to the program," I like to take teams playing w/ revenge for a prior series sweep of three games or more. Generally speaking, it has become increasingly difficult for to beat the same team, day after day, in today's game. As mentioned above, the Reds pulled off their shocking sweep of the Cards earlier this month at home. On the road, this team is just 12-24 and being outscored by 1.5 rpg. That's even after winning 6-2 yday, thereby avoiding a sweep in Washington. It has been nearly three weeks since Cincy won B2B games (haven't done it since sweeping St. Louis) as they've gone 2-13 their L15 games overall. Today's starter, Brandon Finnegan, is making his return from a two-month stint on the DL and a rehab assignment where he allowed four runs in five innings was certainly an ominous sign.

The Cardinals' offense reawakened last night w/ an eight-run output. Things looked somewhat grim early on as they trailed 4-2 going into the bottom of the sixth and were facing the prospect of being swept here in their own ballpark. Thankfully, things then turned their way w/ B2B explosive innings at the plate. With the Reds allowing 6.2 rpg in day games (11-19 record), the chance of another strong offensive effort is there. Michael Wacha will be the one toeing the rubber here for the Redbirds and there's no real sugarcoating the fact he's struggled in recent starts. But, Cincinnati (who he has not faced since his first start of the year) just might be the opponent for him to turn things around. Including six strong innings where he allowed just one run and three hits (back on 4.8), Wacha is 7-1 w/ a 2.95 ERA lifetime against the Reds. 8* St. Louis

10* Toronto (4:00 ET): These two provincial (Ontario) rivals play the final game of the Week 1 CFL slate. Thus far, every game this season has been close w/ last night's 30-27 win by Edmonton at BC being the largest margin of victory by any team this year. That right there leads to automatic consideration of the underdog for this one, especially w/ the dog being at home. The Argos are off a very disappointing 2016 where they went both 5-13 straight up and against the spread. But they did manage to beat the rival Ti-Cats here at BMO Field, 33-21 as a 6.5-point dog. That win and cover happened to snap an 8-game ATS losing streak in the rivalry and I believe there's more to come and the rivalry starts to shift the Argos' way. Take the way. 

As you might expect, a last place finish brought a lot of changes for Toronto this year. There's a new GM, Jim Popp, who for two decades was the architect over in Montreal. He brought over a familiar name to be head coach, that being Marc Trestman, who won a Grey Cup for the Als, not to mention coached in the NFL w/ the Chicago Bears. Trestman should work well w/ veteran QB Ricky Ray, who enters 2017 w/ the fourth most passing yards in the history of the CFL. Furthermore, the Argos were able to reach out to Montreal for another key addition, this one coming on the defensive side of the ball. Shockingly, the 2016 Most Outstanding Defensive Player in the East Division, Bear Woods, was released by the Als. Toronto wasted little time in picking him up and that should lead to immediate dividends on that side of the ball. 

Hamilton has a veteran pivot (QB) of its own, Henry Burris, but it's the Ti-Cats' defense that I'm worried about entering the season. Two key members of what was supposed to be an outstanding secondary - Emanuel Davis and Abdul Kanneh - are both starting the year on the injured list. Look for the experience Ray to exploit those absences. Not only that, but three former Ti-Cats defenders now line up for the Argos. 10* Toronto

6* NY Yankees (2:05 ET): After outlasting the Rangers 2-1 (in 10 innings) in Friday's opener, the Yankees were thoroughly dominated Sat afternoon in an 8-1 loss. I made the mistake of taking the team wearing pinstripes yday, but I'm "doubling down" here. Mainly because the starting pitching matchup is heavily slanted in their favor. Needless to say this looks like the biggest mismatch on the mound on the entire Sunday slate. Texas is forced to go w/ Nick Martinez, who despite a 6-4 team start record, grades out as potentially the weakest starter in any rotation in all of baseball. The Yankees will counter w/ Michael Pineda, who has been outstanding all season here at Yankee Stadium. Even after Saturday's loss, the Yanks are still outscoring visitors by a full 2.0 rpg here in the Bronx. I'm anticipating a blowout today as the Bronx Bombers should get back on track offensively. 

Admittedly, Martinez is off B2B quality outings. He allowed only one run and two hits in 6 1/3 IP vs. Toronto his last time out. But that came after allowing a total of 5 HR's his previous two starts. A 4.58 ERA and 1.246 WHIP indicate that Martinez should feel somewhat fortunate to have a winning team start record. He's been particularly bad on the road w/ a 5.27 ERA and 1.464 WHIP. Yes, the Yankees' bats have been silent so far in this series, but they average 6.2 runs per game at home for the year. Might a matchup w/ Martinez be what awakens the offense? I think so. Also, the Rangers' bullpen has some really ugly numbers outside of Arlington as well, namely a 6.05 ERA and 1.700 WHIP.

Meanwhile, Pineda has thrived here at Yankee Stadium as is evident by a 6-1 record in eight starts to go along w/ a 1.92 ERA and 0.948 WHIP. Yes, he's struggled in the past vs. the Rangers and the team is just 2-9 its L11 games overall. However, let us not be quick to forget that this is still one of the best teams in all of baseball as their YTD run differential is +96, which is second best in the American League. Texas is an interesting case study as LY they won 95 games, but outscored opponents by only eight runs. This year, the record is just .500, but they're +28 in run differential! I earmarked them early for regression this season and like the oddsmakers I don't like their chances - at all - today. 6* NY Yankees

8* Cleveland (1:10 ET): Coming into this three-game series, the Indians had mostly dominated the Twins this season, going 8-2 head to head. A four-game sweep in Minnesota last weekend actually led me to take the Twins in Friday's opener due to the revenge angle. They won in shutout fashion, 5-0. Then came an absolute stunner Saturday as the Twins won again, this time as massive +245 money line underdogs (higher at some shops!) against Corey Kluber. Breaking down this AL Central race (which is basically just these two teams), I continue to be a bit confounded by how both the Tribe and Twins have been so much better on the road than at home this season. Minnesota is just 16-25 at Target Field while 22-9 on the road. It's a similar story for Cleveland, who is 15-19 here at Progressive Field, but 24-15 on the road. I'll call for that trend to come to a temporary halt today, however, as the Indians should be able to avoid the sweep. 

Looking at run differential, there can be no denying that Cleveland is the superior team here. They've outscored opponents by 49 runs this year (3rd best in the A.L.) while Minnesota has actually been outscored by 42 runs (3rd worst in A.L.). Note that despite the losing record here at home, Cleveland has still outscored visitors here at Progressive Field (4.7 to 4.2 rpg). Yes, the Twins do have their best pitcher (Ervin Santana) going today, but he's coming off B2B poor outings where he's allowed a total of 11 runs (4 HR's) on 19 hits in just 10 IP. He's also not fared too well here in Cleveland throughout his career, going 6-11 w/ a 4.00 ERA. I'm not sure how long he's going to be able to keep this surprise season of his up. 

The visitor is now 11-1 in Twins-Indians games this season, which is difficult to explain. Last night, Minnesota scored twice in the first inning, but then not again until the eighth and ninth, which was ultimately the difference in a 4-2 victory. The Indians outhit the Twins in the game 8-5, so there was definitely some "cluster luck" for the visitors there. Something else to consider when handicapping this game is that it's in the daytime and that favors Cleveland, who is 18-9 in day games compared to just 14-20 for Minnesota. Indians' starter Josh Tomlin is admittedly a bit of a question mark, but the last time he faced the Twins (was here at home and against Santana), he went eight innings and allowed just one run (on a solo HR) in what was one of his best outings of 2017 so far. 8* Cleveland

8* Under Orioles/Rays (1:10 ET): Baltimore has been playing some pretty ugly baseball of late. In fact, prior to yday, they'd gone 6-14 over a 20-game stretch that saw them allow 5+ runs in EVERY game! Doing so actually tied a MLB record, originally set by the 1924 Phillies. But getting a quality start from Dylan Bundy + a strong showing at the plate enabled the O's to beat the Rays 8-3 yday. Tampa Bay is no stranger to high scoring games itself having gone Over in each of the last five games. They scored 15 runs in Friday's opener and things certainly look good for them today as they face the struggling Chris Tillman. But I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see this game end up lower-scoring than anticipated as the O's pitching almost "has" to improve based solely on the "law of averages."

What a difference a year makes for Tillman. I've previously written about him fairly extensively. If you're "new to the party," note that I'm not the least bit surprised that he's regressed badly here in 2017. Last season saw him finish near the top of the leaderboard in net units (+13.7 units), but a 3.78 ERA and 1.282 WHIP indicated that he was fortunate to do so. However, the regression that's taken hold here has been even more severe than even the harshest cynic could have anticipated. Tillman comes into today sporting an 8.40 ERA (highest in American League) and 2.168 WHIP in nine starts (3-6 TSR). There's no sugarcoating as to how atrocious he's been recently as the L3 starts have produced a 16.04 ERA and 3.096 WHIP, almost unconscionable numbers. One could reasonably conclude then that things almost HAVE to get better. If Tillman does have one thing going for him here it's that he pitched very well in his two starts in this park last year. In 13 2/3 innings of work, he allowed just one run on six hits. 

Tampa Bay starter Jake Odorizzi has had his own problems this year, namely giving up the long ball. Entering today, he's allowed at least one HR in 10 consecutive starts, one shy of the franchise record. Baltimore's lineup certainly is capable of delivering some power, but again, don't be surprised to see improvement from the starter here. In seven home starts this year, Odorizzi has a 1.030 WHIP and his overall ERA would look a lot better were it not for being victimized by some unearned runs. In fact, since his very first start of the year, Odorizzi has allowed more than three earned runs only ONE time! He hasn't faced Baltimore since September of last year when he allowed just one run on five hits in 6 IP. 8* Under Orioles/Rays

8* British Columbia (10:00 ET): I've seen the Leos get some "Grey Cup love" this offseason. Were those prognostications to be anywhere near accurate, one would certainly have to think laying this short number. Last season was a big bounce back campaign in B.C. as HC Wally Bueno's return to the sidelines led to a big improvement in the team's win total from 7 (in 2015) to 12. The Lions' season officially ended in the Western Final w/ a loss to their rival, Calgary, by a lopsided score of 42-15. Of course, you don't need to ask B.C.'s Week 1 opponent, Edmonton, about how tough the Stampeders are. They were swept by the Stamps last season, part of a disappointing 10-8 SU regular season, after taking the Grey Cup home in 2015.

These Western Division rivals split LY's two meetings, the home team winning both times. They also have a history of close matchups w/ the last five meetings, again all won by the home team, decided by seven points or less (one in OT). But I've got reason to believe the Leos roll here in the season opener. The hype coming out of Western Canada certainly seems justified as QB Jonathon Jennings appears ready to break out. This will be his second year starting at the pivot position and he has possibly the best receiving duo in the league at his disposal, Emmanuel Arcenaux and Bryan Burnham, plus the team added Chris Williams via free agency. The Lions should have no problem scoring in 2017 and that should leave an Eskimos defense that regressed badly LY w/ a uneasy feeling. On their own defensive side of the ball, B.C. returns largely all of LY's top talent including a very talented secondary group.

Edmonton lost Derel Walker to the NFL and one of it's major FA signings this past offseason (LB Corey Greenwood) was lost to injury in training camp. This defense is simply nowhere near as stout as the group that brought home the Grey Cup in 2015. Greenwood was brought in to replace the already departed Deon Lacey. QB Mike Reilly admitted that the loss of his top receiver, Walker, will be tough. I expect the Esks to struggle in this one. 8* British Columbia

10* San Francisco (7:15 ET): Not even a return home could cure what ills the Giants, at least last night, as they dropped the series opener to the Mets by a score of 11-4. It marked San Fran's 9th loss in the past 10 games and as discussed in an analysis earlier in the week (when I played AGAINST them Weds @ Atlanta), they now own not only MLB's second worst record (ahead of only the Phillies), but also it's second worst run differential as well (ahead of only San Diego). A lot of that is owed to a disastrous 13-30 mark on the road where they've been outscored by an almost mind-numbing 1.8 runs per game. At home, save for last night, they've at least been more competitive. It should be pointed out that the Mets hardly arrived in "fine form" either as they'd dropped seven of eight before Friday's win. 

It's a strong-looking pitching matchup tonight, at least on paper, as Johnny Cueto faces off w/ Jacob deGrom. But while both currently sport winning team start records this year, the numbers are hardly representative of dominant pitching. deGrom is off B2B outstanding outings against the Nats & the Cubs, but both were at home. Previously, he'd actually been rocked in two straight showings, giving up 15 ER in just 8 IP. He has a 5.19 ERA on the road this year. The Mets have been giving up a ton of runs in general away from Citi Field as they allow 5.9 per game. Part of that is also due to a bullpen which has a 6.44 ERA and 1.69 WHIP outside of Citi Field. 

A huge second inning (scored six times) is what propelled to Mets to victory last night. They would finish the game w/ 20 hits, more than they had in the previous three games combined. It, in fact, matched a season-high and was just the sixth time this month they had double-digit hits in a game. I realize that Cueto appears to be regressing this season, but I'm calling for a quality outing here as he's allowed 3 ER or less in four of his five previous starts, including the last one where he held Atlanta to just two runs and five hits in seven innings of work. Who's behind the plate (umpire) is a key component of MLB handicapping these days and here we have an ump (Marvin Hudson) who Cueto has never lost with. In fact, Cueto is 4-0 in five career starts w/ Hudson behind the plate and a 2.45 ERA. Speaking of behind the plate, catcher Buster Posey will be back in the lineup tonight after basically being given Friday off (only came in to pinch hit). 10* San Francisco

10* Over Pirates/Cardinals (7:15 ET): Pittsburgh cashed for me yday (as a +110 ML dog), gaining a measure of revenge for a sweep that took place here in St. Louis, back in April. All four games played between these two NL Central rivals have two things in common. One is that all four have been decided by exactly one run. Last night saw the Bucs score the GW run in the top of the ninth on a John Jaso HR. The earlier series saw St. Louis prevail all three times by the identical score of 2-1. So the second thing the four games have in common is that they've all stayed Under. That's a trend I expect to change tonight as we have two somewhat struggling starters on the mound & the Cardinals have largely been an Over team this year. It's been two weeks since the last went Under in B2B games. 

Looking at the season-long numbers of Pirates' starter Gerritt Cole, it sure seems odd that his 14 starts have resulted in an 11-3 Under mark. Yes, he is off B2B quality starts where both times he allowed just one run on three hits in seven innings of work. But, for the year, his ERA and WHIP are still 4.28 and 1.251 respectively. That, right there, should clue you in as to how poorly he'd pitched previously. In the two starts prior, Cole had given up 7 ER both times. Especially curious is the fact the Under is 6-1 in his 7 road starts as his ERA and WHIP in those games are 5.01 and 1.350 respectively. One can probably conclude that a lack of offensive support has often doomed Cole this year and that conclusion would be correct. But I can see the Pirates, who have performed better on the road than their record indicates (4.7 rpg scored), doing better offensively in this one. 

Over the last week, St. Louis has both scored and allowed 6.1 runs per game. So last night was definitely a departure. The game featured only 11 hits total w/ Pittsburgh scoring four times on just five hits of their own. But, again, tonight should be different. Lance Lynn starts for the Redbirds and while he's working on a 12 inning scoreless streak vs. Pittsburgh (shut them out in last series), his career ERA against them is only 4.45. Lynn also comes in off a poor outing, one that saw him allow FOUR home runs. In total, he allowed seven runs in 4 2/3 IP, the fifth straight start where he failed to last longer than 5 1/3 innings. 10* Over Pirates/Cardinals

8* NY Yankees (1:05 ET): It took an additional inning, but the Yankees did dispose of the Rangers in Friday's opener, 2-1. I was of the opinion that this weekend would be kind to the team wearing pinstripes as they are still trying to recover from last week's somewhat disastrous 1-6 West Coast road trip. A return to the Bronx didn't result an immediate bounce back to the start the week as the Yanks dropped two of three to the Halos. But having already escaped Texas' best pitcher (Yu Darvish) on Friday, you have to believe it could be "smooth sailing" for the rest of the series as the Rangers won't be able to throw out anyone close to that caliber on the mound. 

A quick turnaround after a crushing loss last night's does the road team no favors here. The offense managed only four hits Friday evening and their only run scored came on a passed ball. But that lone run came in the top of the ninth, breaking a scorless tie, so they had to still be feeling pretty good about themselves at the time. But not for long. With only two outs to go, reliever Matt Bush gave up a home run to Brett Gardner in the bottom half of the ninth, forcing extra innings. From there, they would go on to lose in the next frame. Darvish was able to counteract the Rangers' inept offense last night, but I would not expect the same from Austin Bibens-Dirkx today. Dirks has not only allowed a HR in all three starts this year, but was tagged for five runs his last time out, at home vs. Toronto. The Yankees lineup, led by Aaron Judge, will be his toughest task yet. 

The Yankees have been a strong team all year in the Bronx, going 24-11 overall. Going into yday's game, they had outscored their opponents here by an average of 2.3 runs per game (3rd best average in MLB). That's played a significant role in the team being #3 overall in MLB in run differential, behind only Houston and the Dodgers. Even after the bad road trip, it was a shock to see them drop two of three here to the Angels to start the week, especially considering they were north of -200 on the ML for all three games. By comparison, this price is a downright bargain. Now some of that has to do w/ Luis Cessa making just his second start of 2017. But I've got enough confidence in him facing a Rangers lineup which has barely cracked .220 for the season on the road. The Yankees' lineup is the one far less likely to be held in check for a second straight game. 8* NY Yankees

8* Run Line Philadelphia (9:40 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Phillies +1.5. Here we go again. The Phils treated me to win yday, beating St. Louis 5-1. That happened to be just their second win in the last 15 games overall and they do (still) own the worst record in all of baseball. But, recently at least, they've been a lot more competitive than their record indicates. Before finally breaking through yday afternoon, they'd lost three straight extra inning games. Six of their last nine losses have come by the dreaded one-run margin. That doesn't even include a misleading 7-1 loss Tuesday (in 11 innings). So I feel comfortable here in saying that they'll do no worse than a one-run loss tonight.

Arizona has to feeling pretty good about itself right now. They return home after taking two of three from Colorado, scoring 26 runs the last two days. Overall, they've now won 9 of 10 and 12 of the last 14. Their current record (46-27) is the best in franchise history at this juncture of the season. They've won 11 of 12 here at Chase Field where they are 26-9 for the year, averaging 6.5 runs per game. However, coming off the strong showing in Colorado and a strong road trip overall, I feel they're ripe to be upset here. Starter Pat Corbin is arguably the weak link in the rotation as his ERA is 5.31 and his WHIP is 1.56. With matchups against Robbie Ray and Zack Greinke the next two days, this is - on paper - Philly's most "winnable" game of the series. 

The reason this line came out so late is that there's been a pitching change for the Phillies. Rookie Mark Leiter, Jr will be making his first big league start in tonight's series opener. He's worked out of the bullpen previously for the Phils and made three starts at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Starting pitching has not been the issue for the Phillies this year as the rotation has delivered five consecutive quality starts. If the offense were able to get going - and against Corbin, I believe they will - they'll compete here and have a chance at pulling the big upset. 8* Run Line Philadelphia (+1.5)

10* Pittsburgh (8:15 ET): The Cardinals are finally back home, but that alone is unlikely to change what ills them. Take away games played against Philadelphia (worst team in baseball) and the Redbirds are a lousy 3-12 overall (5-1 vs. Philly). Furthermore, they lost to the Phillies yday afternoon by a score of 5-1. Now back in April, they did sweep the division rival Pirates, with all three games decided by the same 2-1 score. But that puts the revenge angle in play for this weekend's series and the Bucs come to town with that still on their minds. While it was only a four-game split w/ first place Milwaukee to start the week (on the road), the Pirates outscored the Brew Crew considerably in that series and one of the two losses (Weds) was by one run.

A significant edge for Pittsburgh in this game is getting to face Adam Wainwright. A Cy Young contender several seasons ago, Wainwright has fallen on "hard times" here in 2017. Of late, he has been nothing short of spectacularly awful w/ a 17.41 ERA and 2.515 WHIP his L3 starts. Those numbers are hard to put up, but twice during that stretch he's allowed nine runs while failing to make it out of the fourth inning. Last time out, he lasted only 1 2/3 innings and allowed three home runs (at Baltimore). I played against him there and will do so again tonight. His career ERA vs. Pittsburgh is only 4.33. He did not face them in the series back in April. While supporters may wish to point to a 2.88 ERA at home this year, his WHIP is 1.426, indicating he's been fortunate not to have allowed more runs. 

The Bucs counter w/ Jameson Taillon, who is obviously one of the great stories here in 2017. This will be his third start since returning from treatment for testicular cancer. Obviously, he'd like to resemble the pitcher we saw in his first start back (five shutout innings vs. Colorado) as opposed to the one we saw the last time out (allowed four runs to the Cubs). Though he was in the rotation for all of April, like Wainwright, he missed the earlier series between these two teams. He's faced St. Louis only one time, last year, and fared well by giving up only two runs in 5 IP. These two clubs are rated fairly evenly in my book and even w/ the homefield advantage this weekend, I'm not certainly the slumping Cardinals do all that well. Look for the Bucs to avenge that prior sweep here. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Run Line Minnesota (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Twins +1.5. Last week at this time, I wrote that it was "about time" for Cleveland to assert itself in the AL Central. The consensus top team in the division had gotten off to a pretty mediocre start to 2017 and as a result, trailed the surprising Twins for first place. But after a four-game sweep in Minnesota, the Tribe comes into this weekend w/ a 2.5-game edge in the standings. One thing that these two division foes have in common is that they each have played much better on the road than at home. In fact, both have sub-.500 home records. The revenge angle is obviously in play here and certainly the Twins are eager to reverse a 2-8 record vs. the Indians this season. I say they'll do no worse than a one-run loss tonight. 

Minnesota had to sit out a record-setting five-hour rain delay yday and all they got for their trouble was a 9-0 loss to the White Sox. But note they did take the first two games of that particular series, which was at home. While they've now lost 25 times this season at Target Field, they've tasted defeat only NINE times on the road! Only Houston can claim a better win percentage on the road throughout baseball. Clearly, the delay had an effect on them, starter Nik Turley in particular, last night as they allowed seven runs in the first three innings. With a taxed bullpen, the pressure is on tonight's starter Adaleberto Mejia, who is 0-3 his L3 starts. But outside of one poor showing at home vs. Seattle, Mejia has been fine this year. Last weekend, he allowed just two runs (both coming on solo HR's) to Cleveland in 4 2/3 IP. 

Despite having just 3-6 team start record overall, Mejia's numbers are remarkably similar to those of Indians' starter Trevor Bauer, who has managed a 7-7 TSR. The respective ERA's are virtually identical while Bauer only has a small edge in WHIP. Something to note here is that last night marked the 1st time all season that Minnesota was shut out. They average a healthy 4.8 rpg on the road. This will be their fourth time facing Bauer already this year and they've lost each of the first three matchups. However, that's odd considering Bauer was just 1-5 in 11 career starts against them coming into the year. His ERA remains 4.84 all-time against them. As alluded to above, Cleveland has a losing record here at Progressive Field (15-17) including a 2-6 mark as in the -175 to -250 range on the money line. 8* Run Line Minnesota (+1.5)

8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Needless to say, back in April, the Giants probably weren't thinking that by mid-June they'd be 20 games below .500 and have a worse record than the Braves. Yet, that is exactly where they are at coming into today. They've lost two of the first three games here at SunTrust Park where the home team is (finally) starting to pick up the pace, winning four of its last five. After allowing San Fran to tie the game w/ runs scored in the eighth and ninth innings last night, the Braves were able to win - in walk-off fashion - on a two-run HR by Matt Kemp in the bottom of the 11th. That's a really demoralizing loss for a Giants team that is now shockingly third worst in all of MLB w/ a -90 run differential after dropping 10 of its last 12 including 1-6 on the road trip that ends today. I believe it will end w/ a loss. 

Matt Cain is not a good pitcher. The Giants starter for Thursday comes in w/ a 6.91 ERA and 2.303 WHIP his L3 starts. That's even after allowing only two runs (just one earned) his last time out, in Colorado. That, right there, should tell you how bad he'd been previously. In road starts, he's 0-4 in seven tries w/ a 7.46 ERA and 2.058 WHIP. Overall, the team has dropped five of his last six starts. The really worrisome factor for Cain is his low strikeout totals. There have been only three times all year where he's struck out more than three batters, the last one coming back on May 15th. He did already lose to Atlanta once this year, though that had more to do w/ the other pitcher, Jaime Garcia.

Cain will again be facing Garcia tonight. The Braves lefty will be looking to bounce back from an ugly showing in Miami last week where he allowed six runs. Performances such as that one have been few and far between for Garcia, however. Note that the six earned runs allowed last Saturday equaled the number he'd allowed in his previous five starts combined. During that stretch, he posted a 1.49 ERA. He's been the Braves pitcher this season and has had success in the past against the Giants, going 4-1 w/ a 2.54 ERA in five career starts. That includes him throwing 6 2/3 scoreless innings last month in San Fran and he allowed just four hits. He's recorded 16 K's his L2 starts overall and the home run ball has not been an issue for him. The Giants are an atrocious 13-29 on the road this year and overall, the offense ranks 28th in runs scored, batting average and OBP. They're 30th (last) in slugging. 8* Atlanta

8* Saskatchewan (7:30 ET): Our 2017 CFL opener features two teams coming off losing campaigns in 2016. In fact, the Rough Riders finished a league-worst 5-13 straight up. Montreal wasn't much better (7-11 SU) and didn't make the playoffs either, losing a tiebreaker w/ Hamilton for the final spot. The Als did sweep the season series last year against the Riders, winning 41-3 here at home and 19-14 (as 6.5-pt dogs) on the road. But for a team that was outscored over the course of the season, this price range seems a bit "rich." Consider this; only TWICE last season were the Alouettes favored to win a game! Take the points in this Week 1 matchup. 

Now, Saskatchewan is already dealing w/ some early season attrition as two receivers - Chad Owens and Rob Bagg - won't be suiting up here in Week 1. But that's alright. Naaman Roosevelt (1,000+ yards) and Ricky Collins Jr (48 catches last year) are still around. I've also seen some consternation over the fact the Riders only wrapped up their preseason slate five days ago in B.C. That, I feel, has only served to drive this line up much higher than it should be. The other big storyline here is that pivot (QB) Darian Durant is now suiting up for the Als opposed to the Rough Riders. Again, just another reason the line is too high. 

On defence, the Riders will be led by Willie Jefferson, who is a strong contender to lead the CFL in sacks this season. Expect Jefferson to make life uncomfortable for former teammate and now opponent, Durant. Last season was the first since '12 that the Als swept the season series, so history is on the Rough Riders side here as it's been a LONG time since they dropped three in row to this particular opponent. The Riders also made a GREAT signing in the offseason, bringing in top offensive lineman Derek Dennis over from Calgary. Last season, Dennis was the top OL in the entire league. I see Montreal's D taking a step back this year. 8* Saskatchewan

8* Run Line Oakland (3:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the A's +1.5. It probably shouldn't be considered a shock that Houston has come into Oakland this week and dominated the home team, taking the first three games of the series by a cummulative score of 17-6. After all, the Astros have the best record in all of baseball while the A's are the American League's worst team. Right now, 17.5 games separate the two clubs in the West. But, in this day and age, it has become increasingly harder to sweep a four-game series as the road team. That's my initial read on this matchup and for once, it also looks like Oakland may have the edge in starting pitching as well. Just to be "safe," I'll be taking the added insurance that the RL provides here.

Remember that in the series prior to this one, the A's actually swept the Yankees! That included a start from today's starter Jesse Hahn, who went five innings, allowing only two runs on three hits on Saturday. Hahn now has a 2.81 ERA his L3 starts overall. Though he hasn't always pitched deep into games, there's been only one time all year that he's conceded more than 3 ER in a start. He had the unfortunate task of facing Dallas Keuchel the last time he saw the Astros, but thankfully today he's only being opposed by David Paulino, who has a 5.03 ERA in just four starts (none of them longer than six innings) this season. While Houston continues to win at an extraordinary rate on the road (26-8!), Oakland actually has a winning record at home (22-16) and that record was obviously a lot better before this series got underway. 

Note that coming into this series, it had been a long time since Houston strung togther consecutive victories. They'd actually gone nearly two full weeks w/o doing it. Now, they have won NINE straight times here in Oakland, which is their longest win streak at any stadium (besides their own) since they were a still a member of the National League and won 11 straight times at Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark from 2007-09. All streaks must come to an end, however. Last night's victory saw a lot of "cluster luck" as basically one big inning drove the victory. I'm willing to bank that the A's do no worse than a one-run loss today. 8* Run Line Oakland (+1.5)

8* Toronto (2:05 ET): In both 2015 and '16, the Blue Jays had their season end in the ALCS, losing to the Royals and Indians respectively. Texas is no stranger to the postseason either. They made B2B World Series appearances in 2010 & '11 (lost both times) and actually finished w/ the American League's best overall record LY (more on that in a moment). But it's looking less and less likely that these two perennial playoff teams will be back in the postseason this year. Toronto got off to a horrible start, one that they're just now starting to climb out of. Texas, on the other hand, actually now has a better YTD run differential (+15) than they did in LY's 95-win campaign (+8), but their record in one-run games has regressed from a historic 36-11 last year to 4-11 so far this year. 

So that's where we are w/ these two teams entering Thursday. The Jays have taken two of the first three games here in Arlington this week, including a 7-5 win last night. Today, they have Marcus Stroman on the bump and I expect them to win the series. Last night, the Jays raced out to an early 7-0 lead, scoring six of those runs in the top half of the 1st. That was more than enough for starter Joe Biagini, although the Rangers did rally a bit to make things close for the final three frames. A repeat of that kind of offensive production would certainly be more than enough for Stroman, who has actually done his best work on the road this year. His TSR is 5-0 in six road starts w/ a 2.95 ERA. His L3 starts overall have seen him deliver a 2.70 ERA and 0.95 WHIP and that's despite suffering a shocking loss (as a massive -235 ML favorite) his last time out vs. the White Sox. He allowed three solo home runs in that game, which proved to be his undoing. 

However, let's keep a couple things in perspective, shall we? One, the number of HR's allowed by Stroman in his last start were equal to the number he'd allowed in his previous seven - combined. He's also allowed 3 ER or less in seven of his last eight outings. It's a somewhat massive pitching mismatch here as Stroman is opposed by Martin Perez, who grades out as perhaps the worst starting pitcher on today's slate of games. Perez comes in sporting a 7.07 ERA and 1.929 WHIP his L3 starts, even though he won his last one (first win since 5.18). Rarely this year has the southpaw produced B2B quality outings. In fact, last time out wasn't even a quality outing as he allowed four runs in 5 1/3 IP, but was bailed out by his offense scoring 10 times. That won't happen here. This is a very big game for the Blue Jays as they have a chance (for the 1st time all season!) to get back to .500. 8* Toronto

8* Run Line Philadelphia (1:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Phillies +1.5. Here we go again, one last time. The Phils came into this series w/ revenge for a three-game sweep they suffered earlier this month in St. Louis. That triggers one of my favorite angles, which is to simply take the team playing w/ revenge for the prior sweep. As a bit of "added insurance," I've played Philly on the RL (+1.5) both games here. The fact I've only managed to walk away w/ a split and that the Phils didn't win either game is a miscarraige of justice in my book. Tuesday saw the teams tied (1-1) going into extra innings, which is when the "dam broke" and the Cardinals wound up scoring seven times in the top of the 11th! Last night, while I did cash my ticket, was even more painful for the few remaining Phillies' fans. They blew a 5-0 lead and again lost in extra innings, this time by a score of 7-6. Thankfully, them allowing two runs in the top of the 10th didn't burn me as they at least managed to score one in the bottom half of that inning.

The Phillies were one out away from snapping this losing streak of theirs when they surrendered the game-tying run in the top of the ninth. It marked the first time in over 50 tries that the Cards were able to erase a deficit of five or more runs and come back to win. The poor Phillies. They've now lost three straight extra inning games and six of their last nine losses have come by the dreaded one-run margin. They outhit the Cardinals yday, 16-9. Yes, they now have the worst record in baseball after dropping 13 of 14 overall and 39 of their last 50 (yikes!). But St. Louis still has a losing road record and factoring out the Phillies, their record is just 3-12 in June.

Both teams will be sending out their strongest pitchers Thursday afternoon. For the Redbirds, Carlos Martinez has been sharp of late, posting an 0.844 WHIP his L3 turns. That includes a CG effort against these Phillies where he struck out 11 batters and allowed only four hits. But like his team, Martinez tends to struggle far more on the road where his ERA is 4.50 and his WHIP is 1.361. For the Phils, Aaron Nola's numbers may not "knock your socks off," but one thing that I've noticed is he rarely turns in B2B subpar efforts. Last time out, against a fierce Arizona offense, he allowed five runs. I expect him to pitch MUCH better today. 8* Run Line Philadelphia (+1.5)

10* Minnesota (8:10 ET): Even at 35-33, the Twins would still qualify as a major surprise this year as you have to remember they lost 100+ games LY. Therefore, the fact they are an awful 15-24 at Target Field is downright shocking. But after being swept by Cleveland here at home over the weekend, they got to welcome the last place White Sox to town Tuesday and w/ their #1 pitcher (Ervin Santana) on the hill, they were able to eke out a 9-7 victory. Tonight, the pitching matchup actually looks even more lopsided (in the Twins' favor) as Jose Berrios (#2 starter) will be opposed by David Holmberg, who grades out as the weakest starter on the entire Wednesday slate. I believe that Minnesota's home record is likely to continue to progress to the mean, so another win should be in the cards here tonight.

Berrios has been a solid #2 guy in the rotation behind Santana. He carries a 2.74 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in seven starts w/ the team winning six of them. He's off a season-high eight inning effort against Seattle last Thursday as he allowed just two runs and five hits. At home, his numbers have been slightly better. Among qualified starters, Berrios' 0.871 WHIP is among the best in all of baseball. While he has yet to contribute to his team's 6-3 record against the White Sox this season, he should fare well here against an offense that's likely to start regressing in the coming days. The White Sox are averaging just 4.3 rpg on the road so far. That's a big reason they're just 16-26 away from home.

Holmberg has made just four starts this season for Chicago and his numbers may not seem to indicate he's likely to turn in one of the worst pitching performances on Wednesday. In fact, the Sox have actually won three of those four starts. But this is a pitcher w/ low strikeout numbers and he's also yet to make it past the fifth inning in any start. A 10-8 KW ratio in those four starts is indicative of someone who should NOT be winning and thus trouble may lie ahead. The White Sox are an interesting study as they have a positive run differential this year (+2) despite the losing record, but I don't think anyone envisions this pitching staff continuing its surprising early season success. Juxtapose that w/ Minnesota, who has a winning record, yet has been outscored by 42 runs over the course of the season. But again, that home record is very likely to improve moving forward. So I'll actually ignore what the respective run differentials say and back the team that - clearly - has the better starting pitcher on the hill tonight. 10* Minnesota

8* Run Line Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Phillies +1.5. Last night's final score, which was 8-1 in favor of the Cardinals, is as misleading as it gets. The game was tied 1-1 heading into the 11th inning, which is when the Philly bullpen faltered and gave the game away. For someone who had the Phils +1.5, extra innings was certainly a "worst case scenario" for yours truly. The end result is that the home team still has revenge for not just last night, but also a prior three-game sweep that happened down in St. Louis earlier in the month. Bad teams have gotten me into a bit of trouble w/ this time-tested angle recently, but I still believe strongly in it and thus I'm comfortable in saying the Phillies will do no worse than a one-run loss tonight.

Prior to extra innings last night, the game's only two runs both came early. It was pretty sad to see Philadelphia waste a strong effort on the mound from starter Jeremy Hellickson, who allowed only six hits and one run (coming via a solo HR) in seven innings of work. But I'm thinking the team is in position to get another quality start tonight, this time as Nick Pivetta toes the rubber. The rookie right-hander is off the best start of his career as he actually outdueled Boston' Chris Sale last Thursday by tossing seven scoreless innings of four-hit ball. That also happens to be the Phillies' ONLY win over the last 13 games. But take away the Phillies and the Cardinals haven't been much better here in June. They're just 3-12 against everyone else this month, so there's no reason to think the Phils can't do what everyone else has been doing, even if they do own the worst record in all of baseball.

Like virtually all other Cardinals' pitchers, Michael Wacha got off to a solid start this season, only to regress over the last month or so. His lone quality start over the last five outings did come against these Phillies, but it was at home. On the road this season, Wacha has a 7.53 ERA and 1.820 WHIP, ugly numbers indeed. Last time out, at home vs. Milwaukee, he allowed four runs and seven hits in just four innings of work. As you might expect from a team w/ the worst record in all of baseball, the Phils are starting to make wholesale changes to the roster, calling up a number of players from the Triple-A affiliate in Lehigh Valley while designating for assignment several ineffective ones. The Cards have a sub-.500 road record remember and also have a losing record this season off a win. 8* Run Line Philadelphia (+1.5)

8* Washington (12:10 ET): Max Scherzer at this price seems like a real bargain, even if his adversary (Dan Straily) is somewhat formidable. Miami's starter comes into Wednesday afternoon's matinee sporting a 3.58 ERA and 1.128 WHIP, making his 7-7 overall team start record a bit misleading. But there's nothing misleading about Scherzer, who comes into today w/ a 2.26 ERA and 0.843 WHIP. He's been even better on the road than at home and of late, he's been downright dominant everywhere he's pitched. We're talking a 1.21 ERA and 0.672 WHIP his L3 starts including another double digit strikeout performance his last time out. Scherzer's last five starts have all been quality (four of them he allowed 1 ER or less) and his KW ratio during that time is 58-7.

Let it be noted that the Nationals did drop the series opener here in Miami, losing 8-7 Monday. That game saw them blow an early 6-0 lead and lose on a walk-off. But there was no Marlins comeback yday as the Nats essentially dominated from "start to finish" in a 12-3 victory. This time, the bulk of their runs scored came at the end of the game (scored five times in the top of the ninth). There is no denying that Washington is running away w/ the NL East this year as they are 10.5 games up on the rest of the pack. Considering a 22-14 record vs the rest of the division, I think it's safe to just hand over the pennant now. The Nats are also a very strong 25-14 on the road this season, one of the best such marks in all of baseball. 

Having Scherzer on the hill is one thing. Pairing him w/ one of the top offenses in the game is another. With 19 runs already scored in this series, the Nats are back on top for most runs scored in all of MLB. They also rank 2nd in team batting average and slugging percentage and 3rd in OBP. Tonight will certainly be a challenge for Straily, who was already beat up once by these Nats back in April. In what is still his worst start of '17 to day, he allowed five runs in just 3 1/3 innings. Anything similar would basically be an "automatic loss" facing Scherzer, who iis 4-1 w/ a 2.60 ERA in five career starts in this ballpark. In all road starts this season, Scherzer has allowed just 31 hits in 58 2/3 IP. Last time out, he allowed just one run on four hits in an eight-inning effort at Citi Field (NY Mets). 8* Washington

10* Over D'backs/Rockies (8:40 ET): Raise your hand if, coming into the 2017 season, you thought a mid-June series between Arizona and Colorado would be compelling. Now that I see no hands, let the analysis begin! These two NL West rivals rank not only 1-2 in terms of "biggest surprises" in all of baseball this season, but they're also the top two teams at the betting window as well. They come into this series just one game apart in the standings (Colorado ahead) and both are red hot. The Rockies have won five straight (just swept the Giants) while the D'backs have won seven in a row (just swept the Phillies). I'm staying away from the side in this one, but this being Coors Field and all, an Over play certainly does not seem like a stretch.

Zack Greinke is pitching for Arizona, which you might think gives them a significant advantage. Greinke has already faced Colorado twice in 2017, once at home and once on the road, and both were quality starts. Ironically, it was at home where he gave up three home runs (all of the solo variety) to them. But the challenges of the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the history of MLB still persist. The Rockies average 6.0 rpg at home and just put 32 runs on the board in the last series. They are tied for #2 in most runs scored in all of MLB. Grienke has allowed five runs in each of his last two road starts, although all five were unearned his last time out. 

It should also be pointed out that the Rockies got away w/ allowing eight and nine runs respectively in two of the wins in the last series. Arizona's offense, already one of the best in the game, should thrive in this environment. They come into this series ranked fifth in runs scored. While the numbers are certainly more impressive at home than on the road, they did score exactly five times in all three wins over Philadelphia. They should certainly get their chances against Rockies' starter German Marquez, who has a 5.70 ERA at home. Yes, Marquez has allowed 1 or 0 ER in five of his last seven starts, but almost all of those came on the road. He also did allow six runs at San Diego, one of the most pitcher friendly environments in all of baseball. He's faced Arizona twice this season and lost both times. One of those was here at Coors and he allowed five runs in 6 IP. I was surprised to find that all three games in the first series the teams played at Coors stayed Under. That's a trend I do not expect to continue. 10* Over D'backs/Rockies

10* Run Line Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Phillies +1.5. Earlier this month, the Cardinals swept a three-game set from the Phillies (at home), setting up this revenge angle. Going into that last series, St. Louis had actually dropped seven in a row, all on the road. Though they would go on to sweep the Phils, things really haven't turned around in the Gateway City as the club has now lost five of six coming into tonight. Now, Philly has never recovered from being swept in St. Louis as they have lost 11 of 12 (lone win was 1-0 over Chris Sale!). Performances from both the Reds and Giants this past weekend showed that blindly taking the revenge angle doesn't always work, but I still believe in it and feel the Phils will do no worse than a one-run loss tonight.

As a 13-19 record suggests, the Cardinals aren't a good team on the road. They allow 5.3 runs per game and are also just 1-4 in the -125 to -175 range on the money line. Yes, the Phillies now own the worst record in all of MLB and have been swept a total of eight times already this season. But, let's note that two of the three losses in St. Louis earlier this month came by one run margins. That was also the case in the series against Boston and Arizona. In sum, seven of the team's last 10 games have been decided by one run, six of those being losses. No team can claim to have played more one run games this year than the Phillies (27), though the Cardinals (22) aren't too far behind themselves.

Neither pitcher that will be toeing the rubber this evening comes in displaying fine form. At one point, the Cards' Mike Leake was 5-2 w/ a 1.91 ERA this season. But he's since regressed badly, dropping four consecutive starts, his last one being the ugliest as he allowed six runs over six innings. Interestingly enough, Leake's career 5.40 ERA vs. Philadelphia is his worst against any opponent he's made at least four starts against. Now, right now, it may similarly be difficult to praise Phillies' starter Jeremy Hellickson. He too allowed six runs in his last outing, giving him an 0-4 record (7.57 ERA) his L5 turns. That's probably a "market correction" after Hellickson began the year w/ a very surprising 8-1 TSR (six of those wins coming by one run!). Maybe he loses this one by a one run margin, or maybe the Phils pull the upset. 10* Run Line Philadelphia (+1.5)

8* Run Line Baltimore (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Orioles +1.5. Last night's series opener saw the O's get whitewashed (lost 12-0!) by Cleveland, dropping them to an ugly 12-25 their 37 games overall including 3-9 their last 12. It was an all-around ugly performance Monday night as the Tribe's Corey Kluber silenced the Baltimore bats, allowing just three hits in a complete game shutout. It was somewhat reminiscint of another ugly loss for Baltimore, an 11-2 setback against St. Louis last Friday. Of course, I would jump on the Baltimore bandwagon the next day and they would reward me w/ a 15-7 beatdown of the Cards. Same strategy here and just for a little "added insurance," I'll grab the +1.5 to boot.

Last season saw Chris Tillman post one of the best ROI's (return on investments) in all of baseball as he was top four in net units earned. I felt he was fortunate to do so as his ERA and WHIP were not indicative of dominating performances. Sure enough, the O's starter has regressed badly in 2017, particularly of late. The team has lost each of the last five times he's started w/ him posting a 12.09 ERA and 2.528 WHIP his last three. As awful as that all sounds, it's largely all tied to one disastrous showing at Yankee Stadium ten days ago. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to now see Tillman turn things around somewhat, at least here at Camden Yards where the Orioles are still 23-12 this season. 

Cleveland is just 2-5 this year when off a shut out victory, so again, there's some real value in fading them in this spot. Especially because there's obviously no Kluber here. Instead, it will be Josh Tomlin on the mound and like Tillman, he's been struggling. His L3 starts have resulted in a 6.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP. He got away w/ allowing two home runs his last time out due to his own offense scoring 12 times for him. But as good as the Indians' offense has looked recently, that amount of support simply cannot be counted upon on a nightly basis, so don't be surprised if Cleveland were to have an "off night" at the plate here. Over the course of the season, this hasn't been a top 10 offense, whether you're talking runs scored (14th), team batting average (12th) or OBP (11th). 8* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5)

10* Run Line Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Cubs MINUS 1.5 runs. The reigning World Series Champs enter the day at .500, a record that obviously is considered a massive disappointment at this juncture of the season. But, without question, the nadir of the team's 2017 (so far) was getting swept out in San Diego back at the end of May. The team immediately followed that w/ a five-game win streak (all here at home), but has again regressed by playing below .500 ball (4-7) its last 11 games. Those who follow me regularly know I'm keen on the revenge angle (for a prior series sweep). Over the weekend, we were afforded the opportunity to take teams playing w/ revenge PLUS the 1.5 on the RL. Here, it is the opposite as the money line is (predictably) high on the Cubs. But I have no problem calling for a blowout here as San Diego is the worst team in all of baseball (-113 run differential).

A .500 finish was a pipedream for these Padres coming into 2017 as they were widely expected to be the worst team in all of baseball this year and that's what they are. Their aforementioned run differential is 23 runs worse than the second worst team (Philadelphia). On the road is where things get really ugly. They are 11-24 away from Petco Park and being outscored - on average - by 1.8 runs per game. Only Oakland has been outscored by more on the road this season. The team arrives in the Windy City actually having won four of six w/ both losses coming by one run, so they're probably "due" to get blown out here anyway. Starter Clayton Richard has a 4.29 ERA and 1.42 WHIP and when he gets beat, like a 15-3 loss at Arizona in his last road start, it's often very badly.

Meanwhile, Cubs starter Jon Lester is off a very big win his last time out, 14-3 over the Mets. He struck out 10 while allowing just one run on five hits over 7 IP. Here at home, he has a 2.65 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. The team won two of three over the weekend in Pittsburgh, both wins coming by margins of four runs or greater. The offense has picked up w/ Anthony Rizzo hitting leadoff as he alone is 9 for 22 w/ three home runs since the change was made. Overall, Rizzo comes into tonight on a 12-game hit streak (.409 BA). The Cubs should have no problem winning this game by a margin of two runs or greater and in all likelihood will go on to dominate this series as a whole. 10* Run Line Chi Cubs (-1.5)

10* Over Reds/Rays (7:10 ET): We have yet another National League team playing in an American League stadium here, so that means the DH is in play and my natural lean is always towards the Over. In this particular instance, the NL team in question (Cincinnati) is already more than capable of putting runs on the board w/ its normal lineup (4.9 rpg) that includes the pitcher coming up to bat. The Reds scored seven times yday (still lost by 1), but it was a welcome rally for me as I had them on the run line. But the DH being in play "works both ways" of course and that likely means trouble for a team that is giving up an average of 7.0 rpg and .300 opponents batting average in the last seven games of its current nine-game losing streak. Tonight's pitching matchup is hardly a battle of "Cy Young candidates" either. Take the Over.

Tampa Bay comes into tonight's opener off a 3-3 road trip. They were able to take the last two games in Detroit to salvage a split there and are now the team that occupies the second Wild Card position in the American League. After ranking near the bottom of MLB in runs scored last season, the Rays are up to a far more respectable 8th this year. They scored nine time in yday's victory over the Tigers. At home, the team is generally much better as they are 21-15 w/ 4.9 rpg scored. The only problem I see for them tonight is Jake Odorizzi is on the hill and his L3 starts have brought a 6.08 ERA + 1.800 WHIP. Consider he's also allowed an additional seven unearned runs during that stretch as well. Last time out, he failed to get out of the fifth inning and was inefficient in doing so, still throwing 99 pitches. He's allowed at least one home run in all but one start in 2017. 

The Reds were expected to be among the worst teams in baseball this year, so I can't say this nine-game losing streak of theirs is a total surprise. Monday's starter Scott Feldman is hardly what you'd call a "stopper" either. Feldman has allowed four runs in three of his past four starts overall. He comes in w/ a 5.58 ERA and 1.598 WHIP in six previous road starts. The last one came at San Diego and he lasted only five innings in that pitcher-friendly environment while giving up four runs. While I suppose there's a good chance we won't have to play the bottom of the ninth this evening, I still feel the teams will combine for enough offense to send this one Over the total. 10* Over Reds/Rays

10* Under Red Sox/Astros (8:05 ET): In what could be hailed as a potential "playoff preview," Boston and Houston have split the first two games of this three-game set at Minute Maid Park. That sets up tonight's rubber match w/ a pitching matchup of David Price and Joe Musgrove. While the results of the first two games were much different, both have been low-scoring, and as a result the Under is 2-0. Since opening this eight-game road trek w/ a 7-3 win over Philadelphia, the Red Sox offense has been virtually non-existent. They did win Friday's opener here, 2-1, but they've totaled just three runs in the last three games. Houston, of course, is tops in all of baseball on the runs allowed side of the ledger. These factors as well as the O/U line itself have me calling for another Under tonight.

When David Price returned to the Red Sox rotation, the idea was that he and Chris Sale would form the top 1-2 punch among American League rotations. Sale largely continues to hold up his "end of the bargain," but Price has mostly been a disappointment. Price's four starts thus far have resulted in a 5.09 ERA and 1.217 WHIP, but those numbers are a little misleading in the sense that they are negatively skewed by one poor outing at Yankee Stadium. Price has allowed 3 ER or fewer in each of the other three and last time out saw him go six innings and allow only four hiits. The Houston lineup has been very "hit or miss" lately, scoring three runs or fewer in its last three losses while totaling 20 runs in its last two wins. All-time, the Astros are hitting just .212 against Price as the big southpaw has turned in a 2.68 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in seven career starts w/ a 61-8 KW ratio.

Thus, the major problem I see for Price here is run support, or rather lack of it. Visiting teams are batting just .216 this season at Minute Maid Park and the Red Sox have certainly done little at the plate so far in this series by scoring just three times on 10 hits. Over the L7 games, Houston pitchers have allowed just a .202 opponents' batting average. Musgrove is hardly the stalwart of the starting rotation, but he looked good in his return from the DL on Monday. He'll probably be working limited innings again tonight, but that's fine as Houston has a strong bullpen that can carry the load. The Under is 6-2 in Musgrove's eight home starts this year. 10* Under Red Sox/Astros

8* Run Line San Francisco (3:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Giants +1.5. Similar to the Reds, the Giants have put my strategy of (blindly) taking teams w/ revenge for a prior sweep (of three games or more) to the test this weekend. Note that they did cash via the RL on Thursday. But now it's Sunday and they still haven't beaten the Rockies this weekend. In fact, they've now lost to them EIGHT consecutive times. This head to head record is largely responsible for the massive 18.5 game gap that now exists between the two clubs in the NL West standings. But earlier in the weekend (Thursday) we saw the Tigers gain revenge for a previous sweep (against the Rays) and last night the Angels did the same to the Royals. I believe the Giants will do no worse than a one-run loss today.

The first two games of this series were certainly competitive w/ a late rally pulling San Fran even going into the bottom of the ninth Thursday (lost on a walkoff). Then, they jumped out to an early 4-1 lead in Friday's game. But since then, it's been "all Colorado" w/ them outcoring SF 14-5. Giants' skipper Bruce Bochy pretty much summed it all up when he said, "We're not doing enough to win the ballgames. We score 17 runs in the first two games and we can't get a win, and we get a pretty good pitching job and we get one run today. That's kind of how it's gone for us." Bochy's team certainly had its chances yday as they had 10 hits, one in every inning against Rockies starter Kyle Freeland, but they just couldn't get the runners home.

Denver native Ty Blach will get the baseball today for the G-Men. Yes, he did get charged w/ allowing seven runs his last time out, but that was a tad bit misleading as a bloop hit w/ the bases loaded did him in. He started June w/ a CG effort at Philadelphia and had allowed 3 ER or less in his final four starts of May. I expect Blach to bounce back today. He has only faced the Rockies in relief (four times) in his young career, but has turned in six scoreless innings. Tyler Chatwood will oppose him and this game being at Coors Field is, ironically, not good for the home pitcher. That's because Chatwood's numbers, are much worse at home than on the road. Yes, that's a bit predictable, but for Chatwood the dichotomy is striking. In six home starts, he has a 7.03 ERA and 1.751 WHIP. His road ERA is 2.41. If you're looking at only recent numbers, note that each of Chatwood's last three starts were on the road. His last start at Coors saw him allow six runs in 4 1/3 innings and that was to Seattle team that uncharacteristically had to send the pitcher up to bat. 8* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5)

8* NY Mets (1:10 ET): The Mets are facing the prospect of being swept at home, in a four-game series no less. But they have Jacob deGrom to "save" them Sunday, so I'll be calling for them to avoid the dubious distinction (four game sweeps by a road team are rare). Clearly, the National League East race is "all over but the shouting" this season w/ the Nats currently holding an 11-game lead over the rest of the field. The Mets, one of the biggest disappointments in all of MLB, are 11.5 gms back. This season has been riddled w/ injuries, but as mentioned earlier, at least they have deGrom here. Yes, he did have B2B poor starts on 5.31 and 6.6, but he bounced back Monday by delivering a five-hit complete game against the Cubs here at Citi Field. But perhaps the most important thing of all is the Mets will no longer have to face Max Scherzer or Stephen Strasburg.

Washington had come into this series as losers of five of their last six, all at home, to Texas and Atlanta. But their rotation lined up perfectly for this series w/ Scherzer and Strasburg pitching the L2 days and they've now outscored the Mets 22-9 for the series. But today they'll have Joe Ross on the bump and clearly that's not as an attractive an option as Strasburg or Scherzer. Hence, for the 1st time all series, the Nats are an underdog on the ML. This will be just the 12th time all year that they've been available at 'plus money.' Ross comes in w/ a very misleading 6-2 team start record as his ERA is 6.39 and his WHIP is 1.511. On the road, the numbers get even uglier (8.59, 1.636). Last time out, he got away w/ allowing five runs and a negative KW ratio (2-3) against the lowly Braves. Other factors to consider here is that the Nats' bullpen (5.21 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) is shaky at best and the team's record when on a win streak of three or more games is only 6-6 this year. 

deGrom has a 3.40 ERA in nine career starts vs. Washington, much better than the 5.16 ERA Ross has in his four career starts vs. the Mets. New York has struggled at home this season, mainly due to the offensive numbers being far inferior compared to what they are on the road. But against Ross, they should have their chances at the plate today. They certainly had chances last night as well w/ the potential go-ahead run at the plate in the sixth, seventh and eighth innings. Failing to cash in all three times was brutal in an eventual 7-4 loss, but I don't envision them falling behind tonight w/ deGrom on the hill. Three times in his last five starts, deGrom has allowed 1 ER or less. 8* NY Mets

8* Run Line Cincinnati (1:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm playing the Reds +1.5. My typically "foolproof" strategy of taking teams playing with revenge for a previous sweep (of three games or more) has admittedly been put to the test this weekend, by not only Cincinnati, but San Francisco as well. Today represents the Reds final shot at beating the Dodgers not just this weekend, but for all of 2017. They are 0-5 against them so far this season as they were also swept last weekend at Chavez Ravine. In retrospect, there was a danger in backing the Reds "blindly" as they are clearly the inferior club, which shows not just in the YTD record, but also the fact they are just 3-16 vs. LA the last three seasons, one of the worst head to head marks in the league during that time. But still, at least cashing on the RL is something they should be able to do, especially here at home. I believe in the revenge angle and will try one final time here w/ the Reds.

Four of the five losses to the Dodgers this year have been by at least two runs. Yesterday was the most lopsided of the bunch as the Reds fell 10-2 w/ LA homering four times on a day meant to honor Pete Rose. It was the Reds' eighth loss in a row overall, five of those to the Dodgers. These are the ugly truths we are up against here. But they are getting a big break Sunday w/ Kenta Maeda being reinserted into the starting rotation in what was originally scheduled for a Clayton Kershaw start. (I probably wouldn't have taken Cincy here were Kershaw on the mound). Maeda made his first career relief appearance back on June 9th against the Reds and actually got the save. But as a starter, his ERA is 5.10 this year and his WHIP is 1.28. The numbers get worse on the road (6.26, 1.478) and Maeda's been remarkably inefficient all year, only twice making it past the fifth inning while at the same time averaging around 92 pitchers per start. 

Bronson Arroyo will be getting the baseball for Cincy's last stand against the Dodgers. The veteran certainly can't be any worse here than he was his last time out, when he allowed nine runs (in 4 2/3 IP) to San Diego. But the team is 5-2 this year when he starts at Great American Ballpark, contributing to their overall winning record here. Something else to note is the Reds are a strong 7-2 after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. 8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)

10* LA Angels (8:15 ET): The Angels have really let me down the L2 days, losing both games to the Royals and scoring only three runs in the process. They are now 0-5 head to head w/ the Royals this season. Kansas City, winners of six in a row, has undoubtedly picked up team on this West Coast swing, but I still believe the Halos are due to break through w/ a win this weekend. After being dominated by Royals' pitching the L2 days, tonight's matchup on the mound seems to be squarely in the home team's favor, which helps big time. I know I've said it each of the L2 days (and been wrong!), but look for (at long last!) the Angels to finally beat Kansas City. 

Starting here for Los Angeles will be Adam Meyer. His team start record over his L3 starts is 0-3, but that's grossly misleading. His ERA during that time is 1.62. Control issues (five walks) plagued him his last time out, a 5-3 loss to the Yankees, but the two starts before that were the definition of "hard luck." Both saw him allow just one run over six innings, yet neither team was the offense able to pick him up. At home this year, Meyer has a 2.61 ERA in four starts. Were it not for poor run support, his TSR would be a lot better than 1-3. While their bats have awoken on this road trip, let's not lose sight of the fact that the fact that the Royals still rank 27th in MLB in runs scored and 29th in OBP. They had put together three straight games of  15+ hits going into yday, but that was only the FIFTH time in franchise history they had done so.

While offense has been a problem in this series and for Meyer most of the year, I'm confident that tonight is the Angels night to break out at the plate b/c they are going up against Jake Junis, who in three starts has produced a 7.04 ERA and 1.760 WHIP. Yet he has somehow managed to win all three of them! (Meyer has to be kicking himself). Junis got away w/ allowing three home runs his last time out (to San Diego!) as they were all of the solo variety. The Padres, if you are unaware, happen to the worst offensive team in all of baseball. So there is definitely hope for the Halos here. I've gotta believe that a team that is 52-21 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 price range the L3 seasons is "due" for a win tonight. 10* LA Angels

10* Run Line Cincinnati (4:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I taking the Reds +1.5. I understand that this is probably considered another "unpopular" side today (theme of this 3-Game report?), but I remain firm in my belief in the revenge angle here. Cincinnati got the pitching it needed last night, but the offense wasn't there to support it in a 3-1 loss. It was their seventh loss in a row, four of those coming to the Dodgers. But I don't think that they'll lose them all to LA this weekend, not at home. The Reds actually have a winning record (19-16) here at Great American Ballpark thanks in large part to averaging 5.5 runs per game here. If they can get to that average, starter Asher Wojciechowski should handle the rest and I don't see the team doing any worse than a one-run loss here.

This will be Wojciechowski's seventh start of the year. In the interest of full disclosure, he has allowed four or more runs in five of the previous six. Last weekend at Dodger Stadium, he allowed four runs and six hits in five innings (no walks). But the end result only ended up being a one-run loss, a result that we will obviously accept here. That last start also came opposite Alex Wood, who shut down the Reds again last night. Here, he'll be facing Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has allowed 4 runs in B2B starts, including one vs. Cincy. The Reds actually tagged Ryu for three home runs Sunday, so they were very fortunate to come out ahead in that one. 

Ryu has actually not won on the road this season, going 0-4 in five starts (0-5 TSR). His ERA (4.62) and WHIP (1.539 WHIP) are very poor outside of Chavez Ravine. In four career starts vs. the Reds, Ryu's ERA is 4.44. It's not as if the Dodgers' offense did much last night either. They finished w/ just three runs on seven hits. I expect the Reds' bats to wake back up as they have homered in 22 of the past 25 games. Additionally, they the lead the league in stolen bases. 10* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)

8* Baltimore (4:05 ET): St. Louis definitely took full advantage of the designated hitter last night, scoring 11 runs in a rout of Baltimore. The offensive outburst left me happy as I was on the Over. I was a little disappointed w/ the Orioles, however, as I would have expected more of a "fight" in their return to Camden Yards after a rather disastrous 1-7 road trip. As bad of form as the O's have flashed recently, let's not forget that they are still 21-11 here at home, even after yday's loss. This is a pretty good value I think as the Cardinals have not only lost money on the road, but also in interleague play. They came into this series having just dropped three of four at home to Milwaukee and 20 of 29 overall, including eight straight on the road.

Those who follow me regularly know I constantly stress the value of a team's YTD run differential. Baltimore's is now -56 after losing big Friday, which says they should feel pretty fortunate to still be within two games of .500. However, that run diff skewing so negative is largely due to the recent road trip where they were outscored 38-8 by the Yankees alone. So, as bad as that run diff looks right now, it's probably a bit misleading. Again, they've been a FAR better team at home where they allow just 4.3 runs per game. Wade Miley, off an ugly start in Chicago on Monday, has pitched far better at home (2.15 ERA in six starts). The lefty toes the rubber tonight hoping for a performance along the lines of June 1st's outing here vs. Boston when he went seven innings and allowed just one run on five hits. The Cardinals traditionally struggle vs. southpaws and are just 7-8 against LH starters this year.

Aiding the Orioles cause this afternoon will be going up against the struggling Adam Wainwright. Once a Cy Young contender (years ago), Wainwright has struggled in 2017, particularly on the road. In six road starts, he has a 7.28 ERA and 1.753 WHIP. His overall numbers, whether recent or over the course of the entire season, aren't much better. His last road start was a disaster as he allowed nine runs in only 3 2/3 IP and that was against Cincinnati. At the end of the day, I just don't believe Baltimore is as bad as they've looked recently and I think that they're due for a bit of a turnaround on this homestand. 8* Baltimore

10* Run Line San Francisco (3:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Giants +1.5. After cashing them on the RL Thursday, the Giants let me down on the money line last night. Ironically, it was a late rally that enabled me to cash + the 1.5 Thursday, but last night a 4-1 lead quickly evaporated into a 10-8 defeat. That drops the Giants to 1-8 head to head w/ the Rockies this season, including SEVEN straight losses! Can this Colorado domination continue? Despite what the NL standings say, I'm going to continue to count on "no" being the answer to that question. Revenge for a prior sweep (of three games or more) remains one of my favorite handicapping angles in MLB and I'm not about to "deviate from the script." 

You obviously won't be hearing Matt Cain's name being mentioned for Cy Young consideration in 2017. The Giants starter comes into today having allowed 5 ER in B2B outings. But Colorado's Kyle Freeland hardly is in fine form either after allowing five runs himself his last time out. Certainly, offense has not been a problem for the visitors in this series. They've scored 17 runs in the first two games. The problem is that they've allowed 20. So Cain's job here is to work on bringing that second number down. He is certainly familiar w/ the Rockies and pitching here at Coors Field as this will be his 39th career start against them (most of any pitcher) and 19th in Denver. He is 17-10 w/ a 3.52 ERA all-time against them. Interestingly, he has not faced the Rockies yet in 2017, so don't blame him for the poor head to head record.

Colorado, despite having the best overall record in the National League, has actually been better on the road than at home this season. I'm still skeptical of their long-term prospects as they're a fortunate 10-2 in one-run games. The starting rotation remains young and unproven. Freeland does have a win over the Giants earlier in the year, but he's a low strikeout pitcher w/ a 47-30 KW rate for the year. He's also allowed at least one home run in six consecutive outings. As we've seen in each of the first two games of this series, the Rockies' bullpen is hardly impressive either (5.45 ERA, 1.46 WHIP). I realize it may not be a popular opinion right now, but I do believe the Giants can beat the Rockies. They'll do no worse than a one-run loss here. 10* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5)

10* LA Angels (10:05 ET): Well, the Angels are now 0-4 vs. the Royals this year after dropping last night's series opener by a score of 7-2. I don't expect that winless mark to continue "forever," so I'm back on the Halos at home tonight. Kansas City has all of a sudden picked up steam here, winning five straight on the West Coast w/ an average over eight runs scored per game. But again, that is something I can't see lasting given the fact their offense still ranks 27th in runs scored overall, not to mention 29th in OBP and 25th in slugging. They also have Ian Kennedy going tonight, who is not only winless in 11 starts this year (3-8 TSR), but hasn't won a decision since September 11th of last season. 

Kennedy comes into tonight sporting an unsightly 8.36 ERA and 1.714 WHIP his last three starts. Now only that, but he's also allowed at least four runs in SIX consecutive starts. His last one marked the ONLY time that he'd made it through six innings during that stretch. If you thought the news couldn't get any worse for Kennedy, then think again as the California native is also winless (0-4) in six career starts here in Anaheim. A recent visit down I-405 wasn't any better even though it was against the sorry Padres, who are the worst offensive team in all of baseball. That start came Saturday and the only reason Kennedy isn't 0-7 is because his offense bailed him out w/ a nine-run 8th inning. His 5.40 ERA is his worst ever for a season w/ 10+ starts.

The Angels will look to bounce back behind Jesse Chavez, who has a 3-0 TSR his last three starts. He's gone at least seven innings all three times. His overall record (5-5 in 13 starts) would be a lot better if not for some lousy run support as the offense has supplied him w/ three or fewer runs in eight of those starts. Thankfully, that changed his last time out (ironically in a bad outing by Chavez) as they scored 12 times in a win over the Astros as big +165 underdogs on the money line. Chavez has certainly pitched well in the past vs. Kansas City as he has a 1.65 ERA in six career appearances (some of them coming as a reliever). Remember what I said yday as well: the Angels are a good home team (still 20-13) while KC is still only 14-18 on the road despite the now five-game win streak. 10* LA Angels

10* San Francisco (8:40 ET): Thank goodness for the run line as it (along w/ Giants "rally") saved me last night. I had San Fran +1.5 yday and things were looking quite bleak as they trailed 9-1 entering the top of the seventh. But from there, they would actually go on to score the game's next eight runs, tying things up heading into the bottom of the ninth. They'd end up losing, 10-9, but that was fine by me thanks to the run line. The RL is not an option tonight, however, but that's okay as we have Jeff Samardzija going on the hill. Since the start of May, the former Notre Dame wide reciever has posted an incredible 65-2 KW ratio! He may have been undone by a pair of home runs his last time out, but I have him getting the job done tonight against what I still feel is a slightly overrated Rockies club. 

Colorado certainly has had the Giants' number here in 2017. They're 7-1 head to head with them and have won the past six matchups. That and the fact they're now 10-2 in one-run contests are why they lead their division rivals by a stunning 16.5 games in the NL West. However, quite curiously, the Rockies' record here at Coors Field isn't that great (just 18-13). It's actually a MLB-best 25-13 road record (w/ the pitching staff performing significantly better outside of Coors) that they can credit for being atop the West and having the best overall record in the National League! But last night, the bullpen again proved it cannot be trusted here at home. For the year, Colorado relievers have a 5.45 ERA and 1.46 WHIP at Coors. I don't think you can trust starter Antonio Senzatela much either. He comes in w/ a 6.46 ERA and 1.50 WHIP his L3 starts and his 9-4 team start record would be a lot worse were it not for some incredible run support this year. It's been more than two months since Senzatela won a game in which his offense did NOT score at least nine runs! 

The Giants got a lousy start from Matt Moore last night, but should be in far better shape here w/ Samardzija on the mound. His presence should counteract the possibility of being w/o both Buster Posey and Eduardo Nunez, both of whom left Thursday's game w/ injuries. But note the Giants' rally came after both departed and they are listed as day to day, so neither may end up missing any time. As for Samardzija, he's actually had some success pitching here at Coors w/ a 3.63 ERA in seven career starts. His ability to avoid walks should prove crucial in this hitter-friendly environment. His KW ratio is the best among all qualified NL starters and going into his last start, he was the first pitcher EVER to have 50+ strikeouts w/ one or no walks over a seven start span. If the Giants can't beat the Rockies w/ Samardzija, when can they? 10* San Francisco

8* Run Line Cincinnati (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Reds +1.5. The value of the run line was on display last night when I took the Giants +1.5 against the Rockies (they lost by 1). Check out the analysis on today's game (elsewhere in this report) for more on that. Like the Giants yday, the Reds would certainly appear to be "up against it" in this matchup as the Dodgers come to town. But unlike SF yday, the Reds have two advantages, those being: a) they had Thursday off (Dodgers were in Cleveland) and b) they are at home. Furthermore, as was the case with the play on the Giants yday, revenge is in the air tonight. Just last weekend, Cincy was swept in ugly fashion out at Chavez Ravine. This revenge angle is one of my favorites as beating the same opponent, game after game, is tough to do. Just as a little "added insurance" though, I'm grabbing the +1.5.

Tonight's opener was set to be a pitching rematch between Asher Wojciechowski and Alex Wood. But Wojciechowski's spot in the rotation was flipped w/ Tim Adleman, who gets the start tonight instead. (Wojciechowski is scheduled for tomorrow). That's fine by me as Adleman's numbers are slightly better anyway. He actually pitched admirably against the Dodgers on Sunday, allowing only three runs (two earned) in 5 IP, and was in line for the win. But, sadly, the bullpen failed him by giving up six runs in the bottom of the eighth (Reds lost 9-7). Nevertheless, that performance by Adleman came on the heels of three consecutive quality outings. One of them saw him throw eight innings of one-hit ball. His last home start saw him beat Adam Wainwright and St. Louis by allowing just one run on three hits in 7 IP.

Something else to consider here is that the Reds have a winning record here at home (19-15). Coming off a terrible 0-6 road trip which saw them get swept not only by the Dodgers, but the Padres as well, they'll be happy to be back in Great American Ballpark, even if it's only for this weekend. They average a very impressive 5.6 rpg here for the year. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are just a .500 team on the road this year (16-16). They saw their six-game win streak snapped yday afternoon in Cleveland as they allowed 12 runs. Tonight's starter Alex Wood has been very good so far (yet to lose a decision!), but the Reds did get to him for three runs last Saturday (in only five innings), something that no other team had been able to do since May 2nd. While the odds may not suggest the Reds having much of a shot here, I think they do as they're 6-2 this season when playing w/ a day off. 8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)

10* Over Cardinals/Orioles (7:05 ET): We return to our ongoing discussion of playing Interleague totals. Here we have a NL team (St. Louis) visiting an AL team (Baltimore), so the designated hitter is in play, an obvious nod to the respective offenses, particularly the visitors (who normally don't get to use it). Perhaps it's "true to form" (given the leagues they play in), but St. Louis' starter Carlos Martinez has seen his last five starts all go Under the total while Baltimore's Kevin Gausman is 6-1 Over his last seven (3-0 L3). So something will certainly have to "give" in tonight's series opener. With the DH in play, to me, Over is naturally the way to go. Especially at the current number. 

The O's return to Camden Yards certainly "licking their wounds." Yesterday's 5-2 loss to the White Sox was the punctuation mark on a disastrous 1-7 trip. Prior to yday, they had allowed at least six runs in every game, three times allowing 10 or more. Having Gausman on the hill tonight isn't likely reverse the trend. He comes in sporting a 7.63 ERA and 2.348 WHIP his L3 starts. Those numbers are obviously terrible and sadly over the course of the year, he hasn't been much better (6.49 ERA, 1.904 WHIP). Last time out, he was destroyed by the Yankees, giving up seven runs in 3 1/3 IP w/ an unfathomably bad 0-6 KW ratio. If you recall, last year saw Gausman finish as one of the top money earning starters in all of baseball at +13.7 units. But considering his 3.78 ERA and 1.282 WHIP were "mediocre at best," I can't say I'm surprised to see him regressing in 2017. 

The Cardinals also lost yday, 6-4 at home to the Brewers. That happened to be their fewest number of runs scored in the last six games. Of course, the DH benefits both teams here, so expect Martinez to struggle more than he usually does. In his lone appearance at an AL park this season (Yankee Stadium), he walked EIGHT batters! On the road this season, Martinez's numbers get way worse as he has a 5.10 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Something else to consider here is that both bullpens are struggling right now. The Cardinals' pen has a 5.02 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road this season and is primarily responsible for the team having lost 16 games in which it held a multi-run lead. Look for plenty of runs to be scored in this one. 10* Over Cardinals/Orioles

10* LA Angels (10:05 ET): The Angels played a late one last night, but ended up beating the Yankees 7-5, making it two in a row. Kansas City now comes to town, riding a four-game win streak themselves as their offense surprisingly picked UP despite playing the last two series in National League parks (w/o the DH). The Royals may have swept the Halos back in April, but that was in Kauffman Stadium. I question how much KC will have left in the tank here, playing its thirdconsecutive road series, all of them out here on the West Coast. Four-game win streak or not, there can be no denying that this weekend series represents a drop in class for the Angels compared to their previous opponent and I believe they'll avenge that previous sweep. 

Kansas City has spent much of this season in or near the bottom of the American League Central. The four-game win streak has gotten them out of the basement, but they still have been outscored by 35 runs over the course of the year and are 28th in both runs scored and on base percentage. The fact they've scored seven or more runs in four straight games is definitely surprising, but let's be sure to note that they just beat up on two of the worst teams in all of baseball, the Padres and Giants. Pitching today for the Royals will be relative unknown Matt Strahm, who is making his first big league start. He has made 20 appearances out of the bullpen in 2017 and only has a 4.50 ERA. The last time he started a game - at any level - was last July in Double-A, so this is quite the jump. Strahm is only starting here because Eric Skoglund had been so ineffective.  He will be limited by a pitch count tonight, meaning a Royals' bullpen that has a 5.26 ERA and 1.56 WHIP on the road this season, will come into play.

With the Astros way out in front, everyone else is playing for second in the AL West. Currently, the Angels hold that position as they're a game above .500. But they're a much better home team, particularly in this price range. This season, they are 10-4 as home favorites of -125 to -175 and 52-21 the L3 seasons. Overall, they are 20-13 here in LA this season. Starting here will be Ricky Nolasco, who has not won a decision since late April. The team has lost his last eight starts. But while that sounds bad, it's been a case of a pitcher just having hard luck. Only twice in those eight starts has Nolasco allowed more than 3 ER. He gave a quality effort his last time out, at Houston, allowing just two runs in 7 IP. Nolasco did not face KC in the previous series and again, revenge in the key here. 10* LA Angels

8* Run Line San Francisco (8:40 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Giants +1.5. San Francisco has had its troubles against Colorado this season, going just 1-6 head to head, including them suffering a three-game sweep in their last visit to Coors Field, back in April. That would help to explain the massive and somewhat shocking discrepancy between these two clubs in the NL West standings as the Rockies, tied for 1st in the division, currently lead SF by 15.5 games. Colorado is returning home here after a seven-game road trip, but is that a good thing? Similar to the Twins over in the American League, the Rockies have managed to be a massive surprise IN SPITE of their home record, which is just 17-13.

The revenge angle (for the prior sweep) superseeds all and is the main reason I'm backing the Giants in this one. However, given the odds, I'm willing to step back and take the added insurance that the +1.5 (runs) provides. Certainly, this is looking like a bit of a lost season by the Bay. The Giants just dropped a pair of games (at home) to the Royals, scoring all of three runs in the process. They've now dropped six of eight overall and have a -73 run differential (4th worst in MLB) for the year. But, the last four times they've been off B2B losses, they've managed to win the next time out. Getting back to the run line, the Giants have played among the most (20) one-run games in all of baseball. Colorado's 9-2 record in such affairs is a big reason why they're where they're at and we're now protected from that.

The Rockies had actually dropped three in a row prior to last night's 5-1 win in Pittsburgh. Their rotation is latent w/ rookies and another will start here, that being Jeff Hoffman, who has been red hot (1.33 ERA, 0.541 WHIP L3 starts) filling in for the injured Tyler Anderson. But this will be just the second time pitching at Coors Field for Hoffman and the first time did not go all that well as he allowed three runs and six hits in 5 1/3. Perhaps the hitter-friendly nature of this ballpark will help San Francisco's struggling snap out of its year-long funk. Yesterday did see them undone by stranding 11 runners and going 2 for 10 w/ RISP. It's certainly been a tough year for starter Matt Moore as well, but since the second start of May he's been a lot better. I look for the Giants to do no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5)

10* Detroit (7:05 ET): These two teams have certainly been trending in opposite directions of late w/ the Tigers losing five of their last six, including both home games to Arizona to start the week. Tampa Bay, despite a loss yday in Toronto, has won six of eight. But I'm anticipating a reversal of courses this weekend as one of our favorite angles comes into play. Detroit has revenge here for a prior sweep, which took place down at Tropicana Field back in April. For tonight's opener, this would appear to be an extraordinary price on Justin Verlander, whose struggles this season have mainly been confined to the road. At home, he has a 2.10 ERA and 1.113 WHIP in five outings. Tampa Bay has a losing road record and I see them struggling a bit in this second straight series away from home.

On the road, Verlander did pitch relatively well his last time out. In Boston, he allowed just three runs and five hits in 5 IP. He did walk four against just three strikeouts, but it's rare to see him finish w/ a negative KW ratio. Here at home, that ratio is greater than 2:1. While there's been concern locally over his recent stretch, it should be noted that out of Verlander's last five outings, only one could be termed "bad" and it was against the best team in baseball (Houston). He did not face the Rays in the previous series. All-time, he is 8-3 w/ a 3.34 ERA against them.

Verlander will obviously need for offensive support than what the Tigers supplied last night in the loss to Arizona. The D'backs' two run first inning wound up being enough as Detroit could only answer w/ one run the rest of the ballgame. They struck out 11 times and drew only one walk. But the Tigers' hitters should fare far better tonight against the Rays' Alex Cobb, who struggled mightily in his last road start. It came at Seattle on June 3rd and he allowed nine runs and 14 hits in just five innings. Because of that, Cobb now has a 5.02 ER and 1.586 in eight starts away from home this season. While there's been so much focus on the Tigers' struggling bullpen this year, the fact is their numbers at home are better than Rays' relievers on the road. 10* Detroit

10* Cleveland (7:05 ET): The Indians continue to struggle at home. A 7-5 loss to the Dodgers yday dropped them to 14-16 at Progressive Field this season. That goes a long way in explaining why the Tribe, a prohibitive favorite coming into the year in the AL Central, is still looking up at the Twins in the division. As for the Dodgers, they have now ascended to the top of the NL West, which is looking like it will be a very difficult three-horse race. Cleveland may have been in the World Series LY, but this year the Dodgers are looking more destined to participate in the Fall Classic due to their NL-best +92 run differential. But tonight, Corey Kluber will be on the mound and that's the difference maker in this battle of playoff hopefuls.

After spending virtually all of May on the disabled list, Kluber has returned to the Cleveland rotation and delivered B2B outstanding outings, both here at home. The first, against Oakland, saw him deliver six shutout innings of two-hit ball w/ 10 K's. Last time out, he did allow 3 ER in six innings, but it was still an easy 7-3 win against the White Sox nonetheless. Opponents are hitting just .214 against Kluber since his return. Making Cleveland's sub-.500 home record all the more head-scratching is their outstanding bullpen performance here. Relievers have posted a 1.99 ERA and 1.040 WHIP at Progressive Field this season. Another shocking thing to observe in handicapping this matchup is Cleveland's 1-8 record vs. the National League this season. Typically, the AL dominates Interleague Play. Note that despite the losing home record, the Indians have outscored visitors here by an average of 0.7 rpg. 

Certainly, you have to be careful fading a team like the Dodgers. But facing Kluber would certainly be an appropriate time to do so. It should be noted that LA is just a .500 team on the road this season as their pitching isn't nearly as dominant as it is at Chavez Ravine. Brandon McCarthy will be the Dodgers' starter tonight and admittedly he's been hot of late. But, true to team form, he has a 3.97 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in four road starts. The team is 2-2 in those four games. Keep in mind that three of the five wins in the Dodgers' current streak came at home against Cincinnati. That's not all too impressive considering they were -170 or higher in all three games against the Reds. The Indians HAVE to start winning more at home, right? 10* Cleveland

8* Under Royals/Giants (3:45 ET): I had these teams staying Under the total last night, but a surprise offensive output from the DH-less Royals prevented that bet from cashing (8-1 final). Still though, the mentality remains the same and much of what I said in yday's analysis will be rehashed here. Here's an exact quote from yday's analysis: "When handicapping any Interleague matchup and playing the total, it is critical to factor in where the game is being played. Venue will determine whether or not you have an American League team playing w/o the DH or a National League team gaining the spot in its lineup. Here, we have the former situation and considering the Royals and Giants happen already be the two of the lowest scoring teams in all of baseball, an Under play seems quite logical." Today, with Johnny Cueto starting for the Giants, playing the Under seems even more logical as it increases the likelihood we won't have to play the bottom of the ninth. Those final three outs can often be the difference between a game staying Under or going Over.

Cueto comes into this afternoon's contest having allowed 3 ER or less in three straight starts and 9 of his 13 overall this season. Here, he'll be facing an offense which ranks 28th in MLB in runs scored, 25th in team batting average, 29th in OBP and 27th in slugging and keep in mind those rankings come with them having the DH in the lineup. Now the Royals have scored a total of 28 runs the L3 games (all wins), all in NL parks, which is highly irregular. But consider last night's game, which was 2-1 in their favor after five innings, saw them explode for six runs in the sixth. A similar outburst is unlikely to be repeated here against Cueto, who has a 2.64 ERA in 30 career IL starts. In fact, "cluster luck" has been huge for KC of late. They've had three innings of 4+ runs on the current trip.

Jason Hammel pitches here for the Royals. He's posted an outstanding 0.944 WHIP his L3 starts and will get to go against an offense which is 29th in runs scored, 28th in team batting average, 28th in OBP and 30th (last) in slugging. Yesterday, the Giants managed only one run on five hits. Hammel also aids us in the sense he's just a career .156 hitter. But remember he too benefits from getting to throw against the opposing pitcher and in this case Cueto is just a .110 lifetime hitter. Last time out, Hammel faced Houston and allowed just one run on four hits (7 IP). He also faced the Giants earlier this year (in Kansas City) and allowed just one run on six hits. 8* Under Royals/Giants

10* Under Royals/Giants (10:15 ET): When handicapping any Interleague matchup and playing the total, it is critical to factor in where the game is being played. Venue will determine whether or not you have an American League team playing w/o the DH or a National League team gaining the spot in its lineup. Here, we have the former situation and considering the Royals and Giants happen already be the two of the lowest scoring teams in all of baseball, an Under play seems quite logical, especially considering KC will be w/o the DH. Now the Royals did just complete a three-game series with the Padres (in San Diego) where all three games went Over and they scored 23 times (20 in two wins). But I foresee a drastically different result in tonight's opener.

Kansas City comes in ranked 29th in runs scored and OBP, 27th in team batting average and 26th in slugging. Those numbers are actually UP compared to the first two months of the season. But, they'll continue to play w/o a DH for the next three days and that matters. Consider that one of their two high scoring outputs in San Diego was a result of one massive inning (scored 9 times in the 8th Saturday including a grand slam). So that's not likely to be repeated. Nor is Sunday's eight-run effort which came against amn overmatched pitcher. Tonight, they face Ty Blach, who in five home starts has delivered sensational numbers (1.87 ERA, 0.95 WHIP). The Under is 4-1 in those five starts and while he's coming off a bit of a rough outing at Milwaukee, note the start before that saw him go the distance at Philadelphia (seven-hit shutout!).

The Royals will counter w/ Jason Vargas, who similar to Blach, threw a CG, seven-hit shutout two starts ago. The difference is that Vargas followed it up by allowing just two runs in his last start, which ended up being an impressive win (as +155 ML dogs) over Houston. Vargas has allowed more than 3 ER in only ONE start all season and as a result in the Under is 9-3 when he toes the rubber. Here, he'll face a Giants lineup which is 28th in runs scored, team batting average and OBP. They are 30th (dead last) in slugging. Impressively, Vargas' 2.18 ERA is the second lowest among all American League starters. San Fran may have turned in a season-best 17 hits in its 13-8 win Sunday, but a repeat of that seems highly unlikely here. It would obviously be great if the Giants had the lead going into the ninth, however, so that we could avoid playing the bottom half of the inning. 10* Under Royals/Giants

10* Seattle (8:10 ET): Minnesota's already shaky run differential took another significant hit Monday as they lost to the Mariners by a score of 14-3. In the interest of full disclosure, I was on the Twins and I'll explain why in a moment. However, given the way I'm going tonight and my overall view of this club, in retrospect I should have just listened to my 'gut.' Now having been outscored by 39 runs this season (4th worst in AL!) has to make you highly skeptical of the fact the Twins still lead the AL Central. The situation that led me to take them yday is again present today, only this time in favor of Seattle. We have two starting pitchers facing off for a second consecutive time. Here, I expect the M's Christian Bergmann to gain revenge against Kyle Gibson and the Twins for a loss suffered last Thursday.

Neither Bergmann nor Gibson are likely destined to anchor their respective rotations anytime soon, but it was a good old fashioned "pitcher's duel" last Thursday up in Seattle, won by the Twins 2-1. The difference ended up being an unearned run allowed by Bergmann that was due to the usually surehanded Robinson Cano making two errors on the same play. If last night is any indication, I expect Bergmann to get a lot more offensive support this time around. Facing Adalberto Mejia for the second time in a week, the Mariners lineup quickly chased him on Monday after scoring nine times in the first four innings. Now, let's see if they can do the same to Gibson, whose performance last week was uncharacteristic to say the least. For the year, Gibson has a 6.52 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. He's winless in five home starts w/ even worse numbers (7.25 ERA, 2.10 WHIP), if you can believe it.

While Minnesota's run differential is indicative of a losing club rather than a first place one, Seattle has now outscored its opponents by 11 runs this season despite being a game over .500. There's not nearly the kind of discrepancy there as there is w/ Minnesota, but it's still worth noting. So too is the fact the Twins are just 12-19 at home, making their first place standing all the more shocking. Bergmann had one really bad start this year, but it came at an NL park against maybe the best offense in the game (Washington). Other than that, he's allowed 3 ER or less every time out and his L3 starts have produced a 1.50 ERA and 1.167 WHIP. Facing a team that's given up a total of 27 runs its last two games, I'm taking the pitcher who has revenge yet again. 10* Seattle

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Without question, Colorado has been one of the "feel good stories" this year in MLB. On pace for the best first half to any season in franchise history (began in 1993), they currently lead the NL West, which has turned into a brutal three-horse race between them, the Dodgers and D'backs. Keep in mind the Rockies are 1 of 2 franchises NEVER to have won a division title (Marlins). They took a seven-game win streak into Sunday, but failed to sweep the Cubs in Wrigley. Then, they walked into an emotional PNC Park last night as Pirates' starter Jameson Taillon returned from cancer treatment to pitch five scoreless innings. Quietly, Pittsburgh has now won three straight and I like them to send the Rockies to a third straight loss on Tuesday.

Unlike Colorado, Pittsburgh has been a pretty big disappointment in 2017, no longer resembling the club that made the playoffs three consecutive seasons (2013-15). Even after the three consecutive victories, the Bucs still currently reside in last place in the NL Central. One of the bigger reasons for the disappointing start this season has been starter Gerrit Cole, who has REALLY struggled of late w/ a 10.73 ERA his L4 turns. But I believe tonight represents a great "buy low" situation on Cole, who is a much better pitcher than what he's shown of late. Consider that before these last four starts, he'd turned in eight consecutive quality ones. The Rockies may be a NL-best 24-12 on the road this year, but one of the major reasons for skepticism is they've never been able to hit well outside of the friendly environment that Coors Field provides. They are averaging 4.8 rpg on the road this year, but yday saw them score only twice.

With four rookies in the starting rotation, sustainability there is another concern for Bud Black's club. He'll go w/ Tyler Chatwood tonight. Chatwood has had the exact opposite results of Cole recently, winning his last three decisions. But mixed in there was a one bad outing against Seattle (who had no DH) where he allowed six runs in 4 1/3 IP. Chatwood does have an excellent WHIP (0.971) on the road this year, but overall his numbers aren't much different than Cole's. After that seven-game win streak, I believe Colorado is set to "give a little more back." 8* Pittsburgh

10* Cleveland (9:05 ET): So it turns out that the Warriors will not finish the postseason a perfect 16-0 SU as they lost to the Cavs in Game 4, 137-116, thereby preventing them from pulling off the sweep. Despite still holding a commanding 3-1 series lead and returning home for Game 5 tonight, there's a curious amount of pressure on the Dubs, of course due to the fact that LY saw them blow a 3-1 series lead (first time in NBA Finals history) to these Cavs. Of the four games so far, only one hasn't been decided by double digits, but I'll call for a closer affair tonight as Cleveland appeared to have rediscovered its lost shooting touch Friday night. Take the points. 

Surprisingly, the Warriors are only 1-5 ATS this season following a double digit loss. They are 5-1 straight up in those same games, thus high pointspreads like the one we have here have generally come into play. Their defense was absolutely carved up in Game 4 as they allowed the Cavs not only to make a Finals record 24 three-pointers, but do so at an astounding 53.3% clip. For all the complaining about the officiating GSW did after the game, they actually attempted more free throws in the game than did the Cavs. A huge start to Game 4 was key for Cleveland and it should be noted the defending World Champs played the Warriors tough for much of Games 1 and 2 here in Oakland. Game 3 saw a blown six-point lead in the final three minutes at home and the Cavs were -12 in the two minutes LeBron James was off the court. If either of those two things had been rectified, the discussion of this series would be much different now. 

James averages 32.5 points per game in elimination contests, so expect another big game from him here. He's already averaging a triple double in these Finals. While the Cavs' record as an underdog is far from great this season, note that the majority of the games have come w/ James out of the lineup. I feel the pressure is on the Warriors here as another loss would bring up the ghosts of last season. I'm not saying the Cavs will win outright and extend the series tonight, but I certainly expect a close game. 10* Cleveland

8* Texas (8:10 ET): Like most teams around the league, the Rangers have had major trouble with the Astros in 2017. The 44-20 Astros are 6-1 head to head in this AL West rivalry this year, including a three-game sweep down in Arlington last month. So, as visitors this time, the Rangers certainly seem to be "up against it this week." However, having Yu Darvish on the mound Monday probably represents their best shot at taking a game and getting a pitcher of that caliber, at this price, is too good to pass up. Darvish is well overdue for a win here considering an 0-3 TSR his L3 starts in spite of a 1.091 WHIP. This will certainly be a better matchup for Darvish than when he faced Dallas Keuchel last month. Houston has proven itself "mortal" of late by dropping four of six since an 11-game win streak.

The Astros have actually failed to win each of the last two series, first having to settle for a split at KC, then dropping two of three (here at home) to the Angels. Yesterday saw a 6-3 lead turn into a 12-6 loss. The number of runs allowed by Houston pitching has dramatically increased since the 11-game win streak ended (6.0 rpg during 2-4 stretch). This can be directly tied to three starters being on the DL. One of them, Joe Musgrove, makes his return to the mound Monday. Prior to the stint on the DL, Musgrove has turned in his best outing of the season by tossing seven shutout innings of four-hit ball. But one of his worst outings of the year came here at home against Texas where he allowed five runs in just four innings. That also happens to be the lone time the Astros lost to the Rangers here in 2017. 

You'll recall that Texas had its own impressive win streak this year, that of 10 games. However, what they did over the weekend might be just as impressive. That would be go to D.C. and sweep the Nationals. In between the 10-game win streak and this past weekend's sweep, the club was rather "so-so" and like I said Darvish has not won a decision in awhile. But before losing each of the L3 turns, the Rangers had won six straight Darvish starts. His numbers (3.07 ERA, 1.134 WHIP) remain pretty solid, so I'd like to reiterate what a good value this is getting the better starting pitcher at "plus money." The Rangers have outscored opponents this season. 8* Texas

8* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): The White Sox are yet another AL Central team that finally gets to return to the friendly confines of home this week. They are coming off an unsuccessful road trip, one that saw them finish 2-7 after dropping two of three over the weekend in Cleveland. However, their opponents arrive on the South Side in far worse shape. The Orioles were absolutely bludgeoned this past weekend in the Bronx, losing all three games to the Yankees by a combined score of 38-8! Buck Showalter has certainly "proven me wrong" before by getting inferior clubs to the postseason, but this year's fast start appears to be a mirage now that the O's run differential is -40 (despite being a game over .500!). That's the third worst run differential in the A.L. 

Chicago, who was not expected to be a contender in any way, shape or form this year, also got off to a surprisingly decent start. It came on the back of their pitching, which was really surprising given the trading away of Chris Sale in the offseason. For much of the first two months of the season, the White Sox ranked right near the top of the American League for fewest number of runs allowed. I did play against them Sunday, but that was on the road against a far superior opponent. Baltimore is having major problems on the road this year as their record is just 10-20 after suffering the sweep over the weekend. Last month at Camden Yards, the O's swept the White Sox, which of course sets up one of my favorite handicapping angles - that being taking a team w/ revenge for a prior sweep of three games or more. 

Mike Pelfrey seemingly won't ever get a ton of respect from the marketplace, but the Sox starter has pitched relatively well this season despite a 3-6 team start record. His L4 starts have seen him allow a .198 batting average and .261 OBP. At home, he has a 2.84 ERA and 1.053 WHIP for the season. He did not pitch at Camden Yards in the series last month. Wade Miley did, just barely, for the Orioles. Lasting only two-thirds of an inning, he had to be pulled after getting hit by B2B line drives. He'd already given up three hits while getting just two outs. While injury was the cause of that outing getting cut short, there was no excuse his last time out as he lasted only 2 2/3 innings and gave up four runs on eight hits. It was the third time in five starts he allowed at least four runs when going five innings or less. 8* Chi White Sox

8* Minnesota (8:10): Even though they currently lead the AL Central, the Twins are a team that simply hasn't gained much respect w/ me or the marketplace in general. Perhaps that has something to do with the fact they are -28 in run differential despite being five games over .500. They lost yday, 13-8 to the Giants, but all that did was prevent them from pulling off a three-game sweep. Tonight, they happen to fall into one of my favorite handicapping situations, that being taking a pitcher w/ "immediate revenge" (i.e. facing the same pitcher he lost to in his most recent start). Adalberto Mejia and the Twins lost to Yovani Gallardo and the Mariners back on June 7th, but that was in Seattle where the M's are a solid 20-13 on the year. On the road, they're 11-20. 

Gallardo is not exactly having a stellar 2017 nor did he pitch well his last time out against the Twins. In fact, he allowed five runs for a second consecutive start. A 7.63 ERA and 1.957 WHIP his L3 starts doesn't even include his disastrous showing on 5.20 against the White Sox where he allowed 10 runs in just 3 2/3 IP. Gallardo was bailed out by the offense last week against the Twins, but he should not anticipate such support this time around as the Mariners' offense has been held to four runs or fewer each of the last four games and was shut out (6th time this year) on Sunday. The team averages just 4.1 rpg on the road this year while allowing 5.1 rpg. 

Given the Twins' surprisingly good start (team lost over 100 games LY!), their overall lack of success at home is certainly a bit head-scratching. They're only 12-18 at Target Field so far, a record I expect to regress to the mean somewhat on this upcoming 11-game home stand (includes doubleheader Saturday vs. Cleveland). This will be their first home game in June following a 10-game West Coast swing that saw them finish 6-4 overall. Mejia actually pitched well in Seattle last week, giving up only two hits (in five innings), but unfortunately they were both home runs. He's been a solid starter for this team, going at least five innings each of his last four starts while posting a 3.52 ERA. He has not allowed more than 3 ER in any start this season. I like his prospects for revenge Monday night. 8* Minnesota

10* Nashville (8:05 ET): After a ridiculously easy winner w/ Pittsburgh in Game 5 (6-0!), it's back to Nashville for Game 6. Remember, I cashed the Predators as my *10* Game of the Year back in Game 3. So I certainly have shown a willingness to pivot back and forth between the two teams. At this point, the reason for going back and forth should be fairly clear. It's been "all about" home ice as I shouldn't have to tell you the home team is a perfect 5-0 in the series so far. The player who has been most drastically affected by venue is arguably the most important one, that being Preds' netminder Pekka Rinne. In the three games in Pittsburgh, he's been a complete disaster, allowing 11 goals on just 45 shots. He was chased from Game 5 after allowing three on the first nine shots he saw. All three games in Pittsburgh have seen Rinne allow a flurry of three goals in a condensed period of time, thereby sinking his team's chances.

But in the two games here in "Smashville," Rinne resembled the dominant goaltender we saw in each of the first three rounds of the playoffs. Rinne came into the Stanley Cup Finals sporting a remarkable .941 save percentage for the entire playoffs, which would have been a record had it stood. Therefore, I can't say I'm all that surprised to see him having regressed on this stage. But there's no denying he was the difference maker in both Games 3 and 4 where he stopped 50 out of a possible 52 shots. Something else that should be pointed out is Pittsburgh has yet to outshoot Nashville in a single game in this series. Shots were actually dead even in Game 5 (24-24). Through the first four games, the Preds had a commanding 123-91 edge in that department. A case could be made that despite the series deficit, it is they who have looked like the better team the majority of time. 

Pittsburgh has given up far too many shots this season and I'm still wondering if that catches up w/ them. During the regular season, they allowed the fourth most in the league and they've allowed a similar average (32.0 per game) in the playoffs. (They were also outshot in all seven games in the Washington series). Goalie Matt Murray sees his save percentage slip a bit on the road (allowed 9 goals in Games 3 & 4) and that's also reflected in his won-loss record. Nashville comes in at 14-7 SU this year following a game where they scored one goal or less. Look for them to force a deciding Game 7. 10* Nashville

8* Under Tigers/Red Sox (8:05 ET): The total has (curiously) risen to 11 (a key number when betting MLB totals) and thus I'm going to respond accordingly w/ an Under play. We have a battle of lefties tonight as the Tigers and Red Sox wrap up a three-game set which has seen the home team take the first two games. Friday's opener (5-3 Boston win) was far more competitive than Saturday was (11-3), although it should be pointed out that Boston did the vast majority of its damage last night in the latter innings (scored a total of eight times in the seventh & eighth innings) against Detroit's much maligned bullpen. That late surge is likely what's responsible for tonight's game having the highest O/U line of the series and I think has created some corresponding value.

Pitching tonight for the Red Sox will be Drew Pomeranz, who come in flashing fine form. He's riding a career-best three-game win streak and has a 2.00 ERA during that time. The team is also 5-1 this year w/ him on the mound at Fenway. Those L3 starts have seen him allow a total of just five runs in 18 IP w/ an outstanding 26-3 KW ratio. For the year, Pomeranz has actually allowed 2 ER or fewer in 9 of his 11 starts! So this recent surge is actually nothing new. The fact he's coming off a career-high 123-pitch outing and hasn't been going that deep into games is mitigated by the fact Boston has an outstanding bullpen, led by closer Craig Kimbrel. Also, the Tigers have scored three or four runs in five straight ball games. 

Daniel Norris will be the southpaw going here for the Tigers. Likewise, he wasn't all that efficient his last time out, but he still got away w/ allowing 3 ER or fewer for the fourth time in his last five starts. Tonight will be his first career start at Fenway. Fortunate for him is that the Red Sox offense isn't nearly as prolific as it was last season and their home games are averaging only 8.7 runs per game so far this season. That's well below the total for tonight's game. The Over is 4-1 in Norris' five road starts this year, but that's w/ him getting a lot of run support that likely won't be present here. In fact, the Tigers have scored 6+ runs in four of those five starts, something that I just do not feel will be the case this evening. 8* Under Tigers/Red Sox

8* Cleveland (1:10 ET): After taking Friday's series opener (behind Corey Kluber), the Tribe failed to get the job done Saturday, losing to the White Sox by a score of 5-3. There's really no sugarcoating that it's been a pretty disappointing first two months to the season for the defending AL Champs, but the bottom line is the Central remains a very winnable division and they do currently sport the best YTD run differential (+13) among the group. In fact, they are the ONLY team in the division that can claim to have outscored opponents over the course of the season. Rival Chicago got off to a surprisingly decent start, but - yday aside - they've predictably regressed. I've said it before, but it really stunned me that this team was so proficient on the runs allowed side of the ledger in the early going. But, on paper, the starting rotation remains very week, which is what you'd expect from a team in the midst of a rebuild. 

When Chris Sale was dealt to Boston in the offseason, it basically was a sign that the White Sox were waving the proverbial white flag on 2017. Jose Quintana became the de facto ace and simply put, the shoes have proven too big to fill. Coming into Sunday's start, Quintana is sporting a 5.30 ERA and 1.407 WHIP. The team did win as a sizable ML underdog (+165) his last time out, against Tampa Bay's Chris Archer, as the lefty allowed just one run on four hits in 5 1/3 IP. But he did walk four batters. That also came after B2B disastrous outings where he allowed a total of 15 runs in just seven combined innings. He allowed four HR's during that stretch. Overall, in six starts since May 2nd, Quintana is winless w/ a 6.68 ERA.

Cleveland got a bad start from Josh Tomlin Saturday as he allowed three first-inning runs and it was essentially "over from there" as Chicago outhit the Indians 14-5. I expect far better from Carlos Carrasco today. Not only does Carrasco have a 0.962 WHIP for the season (4th in A.L.), but in two starts so far against the White Sox, he's allowed just 1 run in 15 IP. He's off a bit of a rough showing, but will also be working on seven days' rest here. Overall, the Indians have won 8 of his 11 starts this year. I remain stunned that the Tribe have a losing record at home so far, but expect that to be soon rectified. 8* Cleveland

8* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): After crushing Oakland in Friday's opener, the Rays had to settle for a split of Saturday's doubleheader, losing the second game after taking the first in extra innings. The loss in the second half of the twin bill snapped a four-game win streak for the Rays, who have now gotten over .500. They'll have their ace, Chris Archer, on the hill Sunday and will certainly need him to be at his best after the bullpen was called into duty early in Game 2 yday when starting Matt Andriese had to be lifted in the 1st inning due to a groin injury. Thankfully, Archer comes in fine form and the A's have not only the worst road record in the American League (9-22), but also the worst run differential (-64) as well.

Archer was the quintessential "hard luck loser" his last time out as he gave up just two runs and five hits in 7 IP to go w/ 11 K's, yet he received little in the way of run support and the Rays lost 4-2 to the White Sox. In five of his last seven starts, Archer has struck out 11+ batters, which is very impressive. Oakland's lineup is one that certainly "not afraid" to go down swinging as they've now struck out double digit times in four of the past five ballgames. Six of Archer's last eight starts have been quality. He's posted a 0.923 WHIP in the last three and a 41-5 KW ratio in his last four. That makes him certainly due for some better results than the current 7-6 team start record, especially in light of LY's disappointing returns. 

On the other side of the spectrum, Oakland's Jesse Hahn comes in w/ a 5.54 ERA and 1.692 WHIP his L3 turns. That's despite a shockingly good performance his last time out where all he gave up was an unearned run in a 4-1 over Toronto. But that came at home. As referenced above, the A's are NOT a good road team while TB is a strong home team. Not only do the Rays own a 20-15 WL record at Tropicana Field, they are outscoring opponents here by nearly a full run per game. Visiting teams (going into yday) were batting just .229 for the season at the Trop. The A's bullpen is also terrible (5.90 ERA) and for what it's worth the team has won just once on a Sunday all season. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Arizona (10:10 ET): It was a wild 8-6 game last night the saw the D'backs' 9-game win streak here at Chase Field come to an end. Both teams scored three times in the first frame and what was interesting is that three of the four innings the Brew Crew scored, Arizona would answer w/ an identical number of runs in the bottom half. Therefore, the difference was a two-run sixth by the visitors. Both of these teams would qualify as being among MLB's most pleasant surprises in 2017, but I remain far more skeptical of the Brewers as not only do they have an inferior YTD run differential, but I also can't see their current win percentage on the road being maintained. Arizona is a MLB-best 24-9 at home this year and outscoring foes by 2.4 runs per game here.

No one expected the Brew Crew to be ahead of the Cubs at this juncture of the season, let alone in first place in the National League Central. Yet, that's "where we are" entering today's action. Going into yday, the club was coming off a 3-3 homestand. They have a losing record (9-11) over their last 20 games overall and also have a losing home record (17-19) this year. Therefore, it's the 16-10 road record that's clearly keeping them "afloat." But how long will it last? They still project as a .500 team at best and several key pieces currently find themselves on the DL. Jonathan Villar (2B) is the latest to join the list after leaving last night's game w/ a back injury. Third baseman Travis Shaw is already on the family emergency list and Ryan Braun remains out as well. As detailed above, Chase Field is difficult enough to win at when the visitor is at full strength.

Arizona is in a vicious three-battle in the NL West w/ Colorado and the Dodgers. Though the D'backs are currently third in their own division, they are top five in all of MLB in run differential (+70). That's certainly encouraging. So too has been the work of tonight's starter Zack Godley, who is working on a streak of five straight quality outings. In three home starts this year, Godley has a 1.93 ERA and 0.964 WHIP. Two starts ago, he faced this Milwaukee team (on the road) and threw six shutout innings of five-hit ball. He's working on extended rest here as this will be his first start of June. He'll again work opposite of Junior Guerra, who has had a bit of hard luck in '17, but then again his WHIP is actually higher than his ERA over the L3 starts, something you don't see very often. That's due to nine walks. No team in baseball is more prolific offensively in its home park than is Arizona, so this is a tough assignment here for Guerra. 8* Arizona

8* San Francisco (4:05 ET): Where both of these teams currently reside in the standings has to be considered a major surprise, at least when compared to preseason projections. Minnesota (31-26) is your surprise leader in the AL Central, this despite having actually been outscored by 24 runs so far. Meanwhile, the Giants are a perennial playoff contender in the Senior Circuit, but this is an "odd year" (World Series wins came in 2010, '12 and '14) and right now they are battling lowly San Diego just to stay out of the cellar in the NL West. The surprises continued yday as the Twins came to town and shut the Giants out, 4-0, w/ Ervin Santana doing virtually all the damage - both on the mound and at the plate. Not only did the Twins' early season Cy Young contender toss a four-hit shutout, but he also doubled home three of the runs his team would score for the game. 

Jose Berrios has emerged as the Twins #2 man in the rotation, but there have been recent signs of regression. Such as him allowing three home runs to the Angels back on 5.24 or allowing four runs in just five inning to Houston on 5.30. He was a bit better his last time out (June 4th), but that was against the Mike Trout-less Angels. Granted, the Giants' lineup has generally lacked punch this year. But they did score nine runs Thursday and have scored at least seven in four of the last eight games. Something remarkable about Minnesota being in first place still is the fact they allowed the highest number of runs per game in all of baseball during the month of May. A 19-8 road record also "reeks" of likely regression as well. In addition to have suspect depth in the starting rotation, the Twins' bullpen sports a 5.15 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. 

Provided the Giants' offense can bounce back this afternoon, they should be in good shape w/ Jeff Samardzija on the hill. Samardzija has posted a remarkable 59-1 KW ratio going back to May 1. He's off one of his best outings of 2017 as he held Milwaukee to just two runs (one earned) in 7 2/3 IP while striking out 10 batters. A former AL pitcher, Samardzija has faced the Twins several times before and is 4-1 all-time against them. As rough as things have been for SF so far, my skepticism over Minnesota outweighs that and I'll concluded by noting the Twins have a losing record in day games to due to giving up an average of 6.0 rpg. I'll call for the Giants to bounce back from last night's debacle. 8* San Francisco

10* Seattle (10:10 ET): The Mariners and Blue Jays each entered 2017 w/ playoff aspirations, but poor starts on both sides quickly derailed those thoughts. Toronto still resides in last place in the AL East, though it is Seattle that faces a far greater uphill climb given that they are in the same division (AL West) as the Astros and face a 13-game deficit. So at this point, it's fair to say that the Wild Card would be their only point of entry for the playoffs. But despite a myriad of injuries, the M's certainly aren't giving up. In fact, they had a five-game win streak (season-best) snapped yday, but only due to a two critical errors by Robinson Cano on the same play (lost 2-1 to Minnesota). Overall though, the fact remains that Seattle has won 9 of 11 and this is a big time revenge series for them as they were swept (in a four-game series) out in Toronto last month. If you're a regular of mine, then you know how I feel about that. If not, know that taking a team w/ revenge for a prior sweep (of three or more games) is one of my favorite angles in MLB betting. 

Seattle was a season-worst eight games below .500 following a loss to Boston on 5.27. Since then, they've gone 9-2, virtually all of the wins coming here at Safeco Field. They've won series against Colorado and Minnesota, both of whom are division leaders, plus they swept Tampa Bay. They've outscored their opponents 76-32 during this time, giving them a positive run differential for the year. Important here is that tonight's starter, Sam Gaviglio, did not get a start in the series in Toronto where the M's were swept. He did work two innings of relief and allowed one run in what was his big league debut. So far, Gaviglio has been a very effective starter here at home, allowing just 1 ER in 10 IP. Last time out may have been his most effective start to date as he allowed just four hits to Tampa Bay w/ the lone run conceded via a solo home run. He also finished w/ a season-best 6-0 KW ratio. 

Toronto is also inching its way back to the Mendoza Line (i.e. .500). But after a strong conclusion to May, they've sputtered some here in June, dropping four of seven. They do enjoy the benefit of having yday off, but I'm not sure that's enough to cure an offense which has scored three runs or fewer in five of those seven games this month. On the mound, they go w/ Joe Biagini, who did throw five shutout innings against the Mariners last month. But that was at home and on the road, Biagini's ERA is 5.84. His job will be made far tougher if Nelson Cruz (calf) does indeed return to the Seattle lineup. 10* Seattle

10* Under Warriors/Cavs (9:05 ET): The NBA Finals are "all over but the shouting" now after a soul-crushing loss for Cleveland in Game 3 and anyone who may have taken them plus the points. You can count me among that group as I watched in horror as the defending World Champs were held scoreless over the game's final three minutes, turning a six-point advantage into a five-point loss and thus my ticket on them +3.5 ended up a loser. Anticipation of a sweep has the Game 4 line clearly inflated, but I have no interest in playing the Cavs right now. Therefore, it's a pivot to the total. In Game 1, I was on the Under, noting the O/U line was extraordinarily high compared to past meetings between the two teams. That ticket cashed, but after Games 2 and 3 went Over, we now have an even higher total for this game. Therefore, I'm back on the Under.

It's probably fair to question Cleveland's motivation here. Granted, they did "shock the world" last year in coming back from a 3-1 series deficit. But that was w/ Draymond Green suspended for one of the games. No team in NBA history has ever fought back from a 3-0 series deficit. The fact Cleveland couldn't win Game 3 despite 35+ points from LeBron James and Kyrie Irving is damning. Other than Kevin Love, no one else on the team is producing above a replacement level right now. It seems as if the Cavs never shoot well against the Warriors, who are an underrated defensive team to begin with. Cleveland's red-hot three-point shooting from the first three rounds is now a thing of the past as they've been held to 20 of 73 from behind the arc these last two games. As a reminder, Golden State was #2 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season and they have been - by far - the best team at that end of the floor here in the playoffs. Don't forget they also held the Cavs below 35% overall in Game 1.

Golden State has shot 51.7% and 48.2% respectively in the last two games. They'll obviously "get theirs" again tonight, but after going Over in seven of the past eight games, just how much will they "get?" Motivation could be lacking on their side as well, knowing they - in essence - have this series "in the bag." I don't think we'll see the same kind of sharpshooting we saw the last two games. Remember this was one of the top Under teams (due to inflated O/U lines) in the regular season. Cleveland is also 36-18 Under in games which they are an underdog since LeBron James returned three seasons ago. That includes a 12-6 mark (same pace!) this year. 10* Under Warriors/Cavs

8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): On May 31st, the Cardinals did something that no other team had been able to do over the previous week and that was beat the Dodgers. They did it again on June 1st. Then, the bottom dropped out. Seven straight losses have this once proud organization well below .500. Getting swept by the Cubs (in Wrigley) last weekend was one thing, but getting swept by Cincinnati is pretty embarrassing. It should be noted, however, that the entirety of the losing streak has taken place on the road. Now they finally get to return home to the friendly confines of Busch Stadium where they'll host the team w/ the worst overall record in baseball, the Phillies. I feel a bounce back is "in the Cards" (pun intended!) this weekend and will go w/ St. Louis in tonight's opener.

Unlike the Cards, Philly actually got off to a strong start in June, producing a four game win streak at one point. But that was only after a dreadful month of May (went 6-22) and the win streak has since ended. They come into tonight off B2B losses in Atlanta, both times scoring only one run. They're at a slight disadvantage here in the sense that they didn't get out of Atlanta until late while St. Louis wrapped up the series at Cincinnati in the afternoon. A league-worst 9-23 road record certainly does the Phils no favors here either.

While the Redbirds are coming off their first 0-7 road trip in a decade, note that they actually held multiple run leads in five of the seven games. On paper, we have a pretty terrible pitching matchup tonight w/ two struggling starters. But while Philly's rotation has received just 19 quality starts all year (29th), St. Louis' rotation spent much of the year in the top 10. Jeremy Hellickson goes for Philly here and not only does he have a lousy 6.75 ERA his L7 starts overall, his career ERA vs. St. Louis is 5.03. He's coming off a 103-pitch outing to boot. Starting opposite him will be Michael Wacha, who is trying to erase a string a poor outings himself. But remember his first seven starts of the year brought six quality starts. He's better than what he's shown recently and this is a prime opportunity for he - and his team - to bounce back. 8* St. Louis

10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Pirates were somewhat humiliated last night, losing at home to the Marlins, 7-1. Three consecutive playoff appearances (2013-15) now seem like a somewhat "distant memory" for a club that regressed to 78 wins a year ago and now finds itself residing in last place in the National League Central (26-34). Of course, little was expected of the Marlins this year in the wake of the Jose Fernandez tragedy. Things got off to a pretty awful start for them, but they've treaded water since, including wins in five of the last seven games. Two of those wins have come w/ Edinson Volquez on the hill. One was a no-hitter on 6.3 vs. Arizona while the other took place last night here at PNC Park. There's obviously no Volquez tonight then and thus I'm willing to bet Miami falters. 

Vance Worley will instead be the starter for the visitors tonight. In his first three starts of 2017, things have not gone well for Mr. Worley. A former Pirate, Worley is still winless this season and a 7.10 ERA seems to indicate he deserves to be. The only game Miami lost in the series w/ Arizona came when Worley was on the mound as he allowed five runs in just 3 2/3 innings. He's yet to make it past the fifth inning in any start, which isn't a good sign when your bullpen has a 5.44 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road. The Pirates offense had been putting up some big numbers prior to yday, including two games w/ double digit runs against the Mets last weekend. They followed that up w/ a pair of heartbreaking, extra-inning losses in Baltimore, both times blowing a lead in the bottom of the ninth. So, yday aside, recent results for the Bucs are a tad misleading. 

Tyler Glasnow has been one of several disappointments in Pittsburgh this season. The 23-year old right-hander was highly touted coming into 2017, but has failed to deliver, instead offering up a 6.97 ERA and 1.868 WHIP. His walk rate is also among the worst in all of MLB. He allowed a career-worst 3 HR's his last time out, but prior to that had allowed 3 ER or less in six of eight starts, so he had been showing signs of breaking out. Though the Marlins have totaled 13 runs in the L2 games, I'm not convinced that's the start of any kind of trend as the previous two games saw them total only three. When a home team gets embarrassed the way the Bucs did last night, pride usually kicks in and a bounce back - more often than not - usually takes place. 10* Pittsburgh

6* Houston (8:15 ET): What was an 11-game win streak for the Astros has come to a screeching halt here in KC as they've dropped two in a row, including yday when they had to scratch Dallas Keuchel's scheduled start. As disappointing a result as that 7-5 decision was, the likelihood that the last place Royals can defeat Lance McCullers, Jr seems minimal to me. He and Keuchel form possibly the most potent front end of any starting rotation in baseball and that's a big reason why Houston has gotten off to such a great start. They're 42-18 w/ a +102 run differential and that includes a 10-2 mark w/ McCullers pitching as they've outscored opponents 28-12 his L5 starts alone. In four of his six starts in May, he didn't even give up a single run! 

Kansas City is of course the lowest scoring offense in all of the American League. They've scored only 213 runs or 34 fewer than the second lowest scoring AL club. So, theoretically, this is a tailor-made matchup for the Astros, who have allowed the fewest number of runs in the American League. McCullers wasn't even at his best his last time out, allowing four runs in 4 1/3 innings, but that was against an opponent (Texas) that typically gives him trouble. It was just his third non-quality start of 2017. Back in early April, he dominated this Royals lineup, allowing just three runs in 7 IP. He finished w/ 10 K's and didn't walk anybody. It should be noted that at no point this season has Houston lost both legs of the B2B starts from Keuchel and McCullers.

Kansas City's offense has certainly picked up in the last two games (16 runs scored), but I wouldn't bet on that lasting too long. As mentioned earlier, they struggled against McCullers back in April. On the other side of the ledger, their starter Jason Hammel has experienced the exact opposite results of McCullers. Hammel comes in w/ a 2-9 TSR, 5.93 ERA and 1.595 WHIP. Both wins came against the same opponent, Cleveland. He did not pitch in the earlier series w/ the Astros, but I expect him to struggle based on the fact opponents are hitting .295 off him. He would have allowed even more runs if not for abnormal luck when runners are in scoring position. The Astros come in ranked #1 in MLB in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging! 6* Houston

10* Pittsburgh (8:05 ET): A sharp line move has set off "alarm bells" for me here. Yes, I know the Pens have been outshot in all four games in this series (they were also outshot in all seven games by the Caps!) and were thoroughly dominated in the two games at Nashville (lost 5-1, 4-1). However, a return back to the Steel City should turn the tide. No team in the league suffered fewer regulation losses at home during the regular season and here in the playoffs, they've been beaten just three times here (twice by Washington). On the road, I expect Preds goaltender Pekka Rinne to regress and lest I remind you that Pittsburgh is the top goal scoring team in the league this year. 

Games 1 and 2 here in Pittsburgh were among the strangest we've seen this postseason. The Penguins scored a total of nine times despite a total of just 39 shots, only 12 of those coming in Game 1 where they scored five times. Questions about Rinne began to arise after the two losses, but at home he quickly bounced back w/ a pair of strong performances. He now carries a .932 playoff save percentage into Game 5, but it's worth noting that for the year he's been slightly worse on the road. Imagine what could happen to him if the Pens were able to get their "usual" number of shots on goal (33.9 per game at home). Something else to note is Pittsburgh is 23-11 SU after allowing 4+ goals the previous game while Nashville is 13-21 SU after scoring 4+ goals its previous game. Those trends did not hold for Game 4, but will they really be wrong two straight times? 

Even with this great playoff run of theirs, the eighth-seeded Predators still are only 22-29 SU on the road this year. Lost in all the Rinne headlines is that his counterpart, Matt Murray, has outplayed him in the series. Murray's save percentage is .902 while Rinne's is .886. The Pens have also been incredible at home this year w/ Murray between the pipes, winning 21 of 26 times. This is also just the second time this postseason that the Pens have dropped B2B games. The last time was in the Washington series, then they won Game 7 on the road. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Starter Jake Odorizzi was originally slated to toe the rubber yday, but even w/o him the Rays were able to down the White Sox by a score of 3-1. That sets up a rubber match tonight w/ Odorizzi pitching and I feel the home side (TB) is poised to take this series. Chicago is a team that has fallen into last place in the AL Central after a suprising start led by their even more surprising pitching. For awhile, they were among the AL leaders in the runs allowed side of the ledger. But that's started to shift, which is predictable given that the departure of Chris Sale in the offseason signaled a clear rebuild on the South Side of Chicago. Derek Holland pitches tonight's finale, bringing w/ him a 5.51 ERA and 1.776 WHIP his L3 starts overall. 

The Rays came into this series off a humbling sweep in Seattle. But they've proven to be a far better team here at Tropicana Field where they're 17-14 and outscoring opponents by 0.8 rpg. Meanwhile, the White Sox are now a lousy 13-21 on the road. They'd lost five in a row, three of them in Detroit, prior to this series commencing. Both starters here come off poor showings (each allowed 8 runs), but the difference is five of the runs charged to Odorizzi were unearned. With Odorizzi's scheduled start pushed back a day, they now come in w/ equal rest. Holland lasted only 2 1/3 innings his last time out and gave up three home runs, which certainly is not good. Nor is his 4.66 career ERA vs. the Rays.

In addition to working on an extra day of rest here, another boost for Odorizzi is pitching at home. In five Tropicana Field starts this year, he has an 2.90 ERA and 0.935 WHIP. Prior to the poor showing last week in Seattle, Odorizzi had allowed 2 ER or less in six of his seven previous starts. The White Sox hitting, or lack there of, has been an issue for them all season w/ them ranking 21st in runs scored and 24th in slugging and OBP. Look for Odorizzi to exploit that. Chicago has won just two of its last eight visits to Tropicana Field. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Under Orioles/Nationals (7:05 ET): Once again, we turn to the discussion of venue when it comes to handicapping totals in these Interleague matchups. Venue is key because it determines whether or not the designated hitter will be in play. Tuesday's Over play (Mets/Rangerss) was the latest in a series of winners for me at an AL park where an already high-scoring NL club got to benefit from the usage of the DH. Here, we find the AL team (Baltimore) losing the DH spot and that means trouble offensively. American League pitchers, not used to coming up to the plate regularly, are essentially "easy outs." Perhaps neither starting pitcher is an "ace" in any sense of the word, but it's a great number and there's a good chance the Nats won't be coming up to bat in the bottom of the ninth. Therefore, I'm on the Under.

It should be noted that this is a make-up game. Last month, the Beltway rivals were scheduled for a four-game set, two in each city. All three ended up pretty high scoring w/ 9+ runs scored. The game here in D.C. was actually the highest scoring of the bunch (13 runs), but I wouldn't expect a repeat of tha tonight. Washington comes off a three-game set at Chavez Ravine (Dodger Stadium) where only 12 runs - total - were scored. Obviously, that's a park w/ a reputation for run suppression, but even here in D.C, the average total number of runs scored is "just" 9.2 per game. Baltimore just went Over in both games vs. NL club Pittsburgh, but those games were at Camden Yards. Yesterday's result was a bit misleading in the sense that the O's scored four runs in the bottom of the ninth and then won on a three-run walkoff HR in the 11th. It was a 6-2 game heading into the eighth. 

This is a battle of #5 starters as Alec Asher battles Joe Ross. Asher, the Orioles starter, is off perhaps his best start as he went 6 1/3 innings against Boston and allowed just two runs and three hits. It was the third time in four starts he's allowed 3 ER or fewer. He pitched in an NL park twice last season and he allowed just four runs total, all of them unearned. His L3 starts in NL parks have resulted in just 5 runs allowed in 18 IP. Joe Ross goes for the Nationals and he's looking to bounce back from B2B disappointing outings. It should be noted though that his last quality start came on 5.23 when another AL team (Seattle) came calling to the Nation's Capital and he would allow only one run on five hits over eight innings. While Baltimore's offense obviously won't be as strong as usual, note Washington's has also been in decline over the last month. The last two days saw them held to three runs and nine hits. 10* Under Orioles/Nationals

10* Cleveland (9:05 ET): The defending World Champs appear to be in major trouble, down 0-2 to the Warriors. But let us not forget that the same scenario took place in LY's Finals, only for the Cavs to come back and take four of the next five games in (somewhat) improbable fashion. In fact, the results of the first two games last year, when the Warriors did NOT have Kevin Durant, were even more lopsided (combined 48 pt margin of victory) than what we've seen so far in this series (41 pts). So, Cleveland should not give up all hope - yet. Things now shift to Quicken Loans Arena, where they've been far stronger all year long, and notable is the fact that prior to the start of the series, they were to be favored here at home. After what transpired in the first two games, the oddsmakers have shifted from Cavs -2 to them now being a small home dog. Value! Take the points.

Cleveland as a home dog is rare, provided LeBron James is in the lineup. He obviously will be for Game 3. James quietly turned in a triple double in Game 2 w/ 29 pts, 11 rebounds and 14 assists. Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving also contributed a combined 46 points. But what about the rest of the roster? How about just 38 total pts on 13 of 36 shooting. Those players have to give the team SOMETHING as it was more of the same in Game 1 as well. What we typically see from a "supporting cast" is better play at home, thankfully. Note the Cavs are 36-11 SU at home this year (including playoffs), winning by an average margin of 8.2 points per game. Virtually every player on the roster sees their shooting improve here, which is evident by a 48.6 overall FG% including 39.5% from three-point range.

I mentioned earlier that Cleveland is rarely a home dog w/ James in the lineup. One such time came on Christmas Day (+3.5) against these Warriors as they came from behind to win outright, 109-108. Clearly, the Cavs also need to work on their defense and slowing the pace down. Easier said than done, but going back to LY's Finals, their five wins (including X-Mas) over GSW have seen them allow no more than 108 points every time. They can't win a game in the 130's. Good news is that they are 5-1 SU/ATS after allowing 130+ pts the previous game.  I know the Dubs look invincible right now, but will they really "run the table" and go 16-0 (SU) in the playoffs? I'm still thinking "no!" 10* Cleveland

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Make it 0-5 for the Braves this year against the Phillies. The home team has been killing me in this series as I've been on them each of the last two days. But I'll stick w/ them again tonight as I maintain the handicap on this series is accurate. Historically, I've had great success taking a team that has revenge for a prior sweep of three or more games, which is what happened to Atlanta in the City of Brotherly Love back in April. With these two clubs, it's not as if one could say the Phillies are significantly better, in fact, most metrics would indicate they are the inferior side. They're still not too far removed from an absolutely dreadful month of May (6-22) and still are just 9-21 on the road this season. Their current four-game win streak is not their longest of the year (they did win 5 straight in late April), but note that outside of those two streaks, the team's overall record is just 12-35! 

Starting today for the Phils is Jerad Eickhoff. In addition to have an odd spelling for his first name, Eickhoff has the dubious distinction of being winless in 11 starts this season (0-6). His team start record is 2-9 and his ERA (5.28) and WHIP (1.575) indicate that there's no bad luck there. In his last start, a 10-0 loss to the lousy Giants, he allowed five runs in 2 2/3 IP. He also issued a career-high five walks. Something else to consider is that yday's game marked the 1st time all season that a Phillies starter lasted eight innings. It's not like the bullpen is very good either. Overall, Philly's YTD run differential (-55) remains fourth worst in baseball, even after factoring in the current win streak. 

Atlanta at least did better yday than Monday where they fell into a huge 9-0 hole early. Last night actually saw them score first, but a first inning run would also be their last. Offense has been hard to come by in this series as they continue to struggle at home. But against Eickhoff, I expect their bats to resemble the kind of performance we saw Sunday when they put 13 runs on the board against Cincinnati. Starting tonight will be Mike Foltynewicz, who is off a stellar outing last Friday. It was in Cincinnati and he threw seven scoreless innings while striking out 10 batters. Sadly, the Braves still lost that game, 3-2. So they definitely "owe" Foltynewicz one today. Note that in four of his past five starts, Foltynewicz has allowed 3 ER or less. The Phillies are not strong offensively on the road (just 3.9 rpg) and this madness that is the Braves' losing streak to them must end. 10* Atlanta

10* St. Louis (7:10 ET): Needless to say, the Cardinals have not had a good start to June. Well, they did beat the Dodgers last Thursday (1st of the month). But since that win, they've lost five straight, first getting swept by the Cubs, then dropping the first two games of this series w/ Cincinnati. Last night may have marked the official "low point" as they lost 13-1 w/ the Reds' Scooter Gennett turning in one of the greatest single-game performances by a MLB player - EVER - as he went 5 for 5 at the plate w/ 4 home runs and 10 RBI's. Consider though that Gennett was mired in an 0 for 19 slump heading into Monday's opener. Needless to say, he'll regress sharply here and so to should the entire team as I just can't fathom St. Louis dropping a third straight game to their division rival. 

Believe it or not, but Cincy actually comes into this game ahead of St. Louis in the NL Central standings (by one-half game). Few, if any, would have predicted that to be the case 55+ games into the season. In fact, it wasn't that long ago that the Redbirds were a top the division. The current losing streak has changed that, but it's notable that they still have the honor of having allowed the fewest number of runs among all NL Central teams. Believe it or not, they've actually allowed the third fewest in the entire Senior Circuit (only Dodgers and D'backs ahead of them). Tonight, they'll have Lance Lynn on the bump. While Lynn has not won a decision since May 5th, don't blame him for that. He's posted a 0.927 WHIP his L3 starts despite those all ending up as team losses. In 8 of his 11 starts this season, Lynn has allowed 2 ER or fewer and he has a 2.97 ERA and 1.068 WHIP for the year, very good numbers. 

I give Lynn a significant edge over his counterpart here, the aging Bronson Arroyo. Arroyo may have the better team start record of the two pitchers (6-5 vs. 5-6), but that is totally misleading as his ERA (6.24) and WHIP (1.439) are both significantly higher. Arroyo has actually been rather serviceable his L2 outings, but those came against Atlanta and Philadelphia, two very bad teams. One thing to still be concerned about w/ him is low strikeout totals. He hasn't recorded more than four in any of his last seven starts. His career numbers against St. Louis are terrible, especially in recent years as he's 0-6 w/ a 6.34 ERA his L9. Compare that to Lynn, who is 9-4 w/ a 3.22 ERA all-time vs. the Reds. Lynn is also third in the entire NL w/ opponents batting just .192 against him. I just don't buy the Reds, projected to be one of the worst teams in all of baseball at the start of the year, to continue winning. Nor can I see the Cards continuing to lose like this. 10* St. Louis