8* Boston (1:05 ET): Playoff hopefuls from each conference meet Monday in Beantown. The Bruins have surged into second place in the Atlantic by going 8-0-2 their L10, trailing only league-best Tampa Bay in that division. A 1st rd playoff matchup w/ Toronto almost seems inevitable at this point, but first they must concern themselves w/ hosting a Dallas club fighting for its own position in the rugged Central. The Stars enter the day w/ 51 pts, good enough for 5th in their own division, a spot that would enable them to be the last playoff entrant in the Western Conference. However, key here is venue. The Stars are right up there, among the very best in the league in scoring differential at home. But, on the road, they're only 8-11-2 and averaging just 2.5 goals per game. Again, this game is in Boston ;)

The Bruins have suffered only five regulation defeats on home ice all year and are 14-5-3 overall at the TD North Bank Garden. The team has gone 18-3-3 its last 24 games, period. Most recently, they beat Montreal (4-3) in a shootout on Saturday. With Tuukka Rask in goal, they've gone 12-0-2 their L14 and he is expected to start today. Versus Dallas, Rask's all-time save percentage in .924. Note that if backup Anton Khudobin goes, that's okay too as he has a .940 career save percentage vs. Dallas. This Bruins team not only ranks in the Top 10 in both goals scored and allowed, but also on the power play and penalty killing. They have truly emerged as one of the more "complete" teams in the league right now.

The Stars took a bad loss on Saturday, losing at home to Colorado by a score of 4-1. That wrapped up a 4-2 homestand. In fact, they have played only one road game (lost at Minnesota) going all the way back to December 17th! Kari Lehtonen is expected to be between the pipes for them today and he is an incredible 9-0 all-time vs. the Bruins. But his save percentage nor his goals against average in those nine games indicate no real dominance. In front of him, he'll be w/o key defenseman Marc Methot. That could mean trouble facing a Boston offense that's averaging more than five goals per game over its last five contests. 8* Boston

10* UMass (5:00 ET): Looking back at the preseason projections, St. Joe's probably wasn't banking on coming in as an underdog to UMass (even here in Amherst) nor being only 7-8 SU at this point of the season. Keep in mind they recently beat both VCU and St. Bonaventure as well, albeit both at home. The Hawks have been one of the A-10's bigger disappointments thus far and that continued earlier this week when they were beaten by George Mason at the buzzer. Now they find themselves playing a second straight road game for the first time since November. Sure, they're 5-2 ATS as a dog this season, but they've still been outscored by an average of over five points per game in those contests. They have just two wins away from home all year (2-7 SU) w/ the lone "true" road win coming all the way back in the 2nd game against IL-Chicago.

So as you can sense, I'll be on the other side Sunday afternoon. UMass comes in off an 86-79 win over LaSalle (here at home) and an upset at Dayton before that. Not a ton was expected of the Minutemen coming into the season, but they are 8-2 SU at home and that's where this game is taking place! Now the teams has gone to overtime twice in it last three games, winning one and losing the other. They had to overcome a 21-pt deficit against LaSalle on Wednesday and needed a program-record 44 pts from Luwane Pipkins to do it, eventually prevailing 86-79 in OT. That win came on the heels of another come from behind effort, this one at Dayton as eight-point underdogs (won 62-60). Those two close wins were long overdue as previously the Minutemen had gone only 1-5 SU in games decided by six points or less, or overtime. 

I look for UMass to have a strong game offensively here. They already are shooting 47.6% from the floor at home this year, including 39.5% from three-point range. St. Joe's isn't exactly what I'd call "stout" defensively as they allow 76.7 PPG. Meanwhile, the Hawks have somehow been able to average 77.8 PPG in conference play despite barely shooting 40% from the floor. That isn't likely to continue. Coming off a loss at the buzzer, you have to question the Hawks mindset here and I think they'll struggle to contain Pipkins and the Minutemen's other top scorer, Carl Pierre, as well. 10* UMass

10* Jacksonville (1:05 ET): All the way back in Week 9, the Jaguars beat the Steelers 30-9, right here in Pittsburgh. The final score was misleading though. Total yardage was actually in favor of the Steelers (371-313), yet that hardly mattered as Ben Roethlisberger threw a career-high 5 INT's, two of them returned for Jaguars' touchdowns (in a three-minute span). Jags RB Leonard Fournette then gallivanted his way for a 90-yard touchdown late to make the game REALLY seem like a blowout. Oddsmakers seem unfazed by the result, essentially installing the Steelers as the same size favorite for Sunday's rematch.  So now worries for those Terrible Towel wavers, right? After all, Big Ben is highly unlikely to toss another five interceptions here and no team has ever won in Pittsburgh twice in the same season. Well, except the 2007 Jaguars. But that's irrelevant to the discussion, right? Probably, but I'm taking the points anyway. 

I don't think Pittsburgh is as good as its 13-3 SU record would seem to indicate. They may come into the playoffs as the "hottest" team (won 10 of 11), but their +98 point differential was "only" 7th best in the league (barely ahead of the rival Ravens, who didn't make the playoffs). The key to their record was a league-high eight wins by a TD or less (lost only two such games, ironically one of which came to the Patriots, costing them homefield). Also, despite being off a bye week, it's not like they're w/o attrition. WR Antonio Brown is still recovering from a calf injury. While he's expected to play, the league's top receiver won't be at 100 percent and that's a problem going against the league's top pass defense. On the other side of the ball, CB Artie Burns is still battling knee issues and is one of three defensive players listed as questionable. Then there is the ongoing sage of RB Le'Veon Bell, who essentially told the front office they better not franchise him in the offseason. That could be a distraction. 

As for the Jags, their 10-3 Wild Card win over Buffalo was about as unimpressive as it gets. But there's plenty of reason to like this team in an underdog role Sunday. As mentioned before, they come in w/ the top ranked pass defense in the league. Both times the team was a road dog of 3.5 to 7 pts in the regular season, they won and (obviously) covered. Jacksonville actually outscored its regular season opponents by a wider margin than did Pittsburgh, ranking third in the league in point differential, trailing only New England and Philadelphia (each conference's top seed). Jacksonville also impressively swept the AFC North (Pittsburgh's division) this year, going 4-0 SU/ATS.  The Jags top-ranked rushing offense should find success against a Steelers' defense that ranks just 20th at stopping the run. In the reg season matchup, Fournette went for a career-best 181 yds w/ TWO TD's. 10* Jacksonville 

10* Milwaukee (1:05 ET): Truthfully, I'm not too surprised where each of these teams currently reside in the Eastern Conference pecking order as I wasn't quite as high on Milwaukee as some (coming into the season) while Miami made my list for Most Likely To Improve. However, said improvement for the Heat hadn't really taken hold until this month where they've now won six in a row, the latest two coming on the road against Toronto and Indiana. The Heat have certainly had ample time to prepare for this game as in three days off since those pair of outright victories (were +4 in both games). But this is a team that's still been outscored over the course of the season. You could say the same for Milwaukee, but they have the better efficiency numbers as well. Take the points.

The Bucks come into this game off a home loss to Golden State on Friday. In that game, they were able to overcome a 14-pt halftime deficit, even taking the lead after three quarters, yet still wound up losing by 14 anyway as they were outscored 28-12 in the fourth. There was no Steph Curry for the Dubs either. Yet, I hardly would call that a "bad" loss for the team and the good news here is that the Bucks have been alternating wins and losses for the first two weeks of 2018. By that measure, they're "due" for a win here. Don't look for them to shoot as poorly here as they did against the Warriors (42.4%) nor allow the same kind of shooting percentage they did against the defending champs (55.0%). This is a team that actually averages more points per game on the road than at home. 

Miami 'fans' are thinking about last year when the team went on an amazing 13-game run right around this time of the season. However, note that this six-game stretch has hardly been dominant; every win has come by single digits, two of them by a single point and another in overtime. What's also been key for the Heat is a 14-4 SU record against teams below .500. Prior to the previous two games, they'd been just 8-13 SU vs. winning teams. They've been surprisingly bad at home so far (11-9 SU, 5-13-2 ATS) and are clearly overachieving given they're just 6-11 ATS when favored. Milwaukee is the better team here and getting points. Miami is just 3-7 ATS this year off a SU win as a dog. 10* Milwaukee

6* Chicago (12:35 ET): This is just an awful spot for the visiting Red Wings, who had to play last night (and lost 4-1 to the Penguins) and now must hit the ice for an early start time Sunday. Not only that, but this is a classic case of the favorite being much better than its overall record while the underdog isn't even necessarily as good as its own won-loss mark. Something I've been harping on for a long time now is how Detroit was extraordinarily fortunate to go 9-0 SU in shootouts last season (unsustainable!). They're 3-1 SU in such contests this year. Having been outscored mightily on the road this season does not bode well against one of the better home teams in the sport. Take the favorite in this one. 

While the Red Wings have dropped consecutive games, the Blackhawks are off a huge win - right here at home - over Central Division leading Winnipeg. Something else I've been harping on recently is how tough the Central is this year. Every team has a winning record in regulation as well as a positive goal differential. Shockingly, Chicago is only one point ahead of last place Colorado. But that's misleading as is their home record of 12-7-2. They're outscoring visitors by a full goal per game here at the "Madhouse on Madison" while averaging 35.6 shots per game here. Only a handful of teams have been more dominant (in terms of scoring margin) on home ice this year. Bottom line is I expected the 'Hawks to start winning a lot more here, moving forward. Jeff Glass, a rookie, continues to be a revalation in goal w/ a .918 save percentage and in five starts. Despite the small sample size, I actually given him a large edge over his likely counterpart, Petr Mrazek of the Red Wings. 

Mrazek has not performed well in his limited duty as a backup this season. In 12 appearances, his goals against average is 3.78 and his save percentage is .885. He's only getting the nod here due to this being the second game of a back to back and Jimmy Howard was between the pipes last night. Detroit has allowed nine goals over its last two games. If Howard does go, that's fine too as he has a losing career record vs. Chicago. Most damning of all though is the fact the Red Wings are 2-12 SU this season after allowing 4+ goals last game. 6* Chicago 

10* Los Angeles (10:35 ET): Given that they missed the playoffs last season, the Kings should be thrilled to be in the position they're in right now. They have 53 points and a +27 goal differential, both of which rank as third best in the Western Conference. They're second in the Pacific, a division where a number of teams are having disappointing seasons. But after B2B losses, they're starting to fall behind Vegas (who would have thought!?) in the battle for first. Tonight, they host Anaheim (who is also off B2B losses) in an important matchup. Being off B2B losses isn't the only similarity here; both teams come in w/ a full week of rest, which is something you just don't see very often. 

This is really a bit of odd scheduling from the Ducks perspective as the time off comes in the middle of a five-game trip. But it at least allowed them to rest at home after playing three games up in Western Canada. They lost both in Alberta, 2-1 to the Oilers and 3-2 to the Flames, the first coming via a shootout. Before suffering those two losses, it appeared as if the club might be turning a corner as they'd won five of six (only loss to Vegas). But Anaheim is one of the bigger Pacific Division "disappointments" I spoke of earlier as their current point total of 47 would have them OUT of the playoffs, were they to begin today. As I've been saying for over a month now, it's very likely that the Pacific will only send its top three to the playoffs as the tougher Central Division is poised to grab both "Wild Card" spots.

In addition to their always-strong puck possession numbers, another reason to like the Kings moving forward is they rank #1 in the league in both fewest goals allowed and penalty killing. They are not a good matchup for the Ducks, who come in at 25th in goals per game and 24th on the power play. Of course, the Ducks also rank in the top seven in both goals allowed and penalty killing, but are obviously not as strong as the Kings are in those departments. The Kings have won both previous matchups this season (each by one goal) and I'll gladly take Jonathan Quick over whomever Anaheim decided to trot out between the pipes tonight. The Ducks are allowing the second highest number of shots per game in the league right now, trailing only Florida. 10* Los Angeles

8* Tennessee (8:15 ET): No one, and I do mean NO ONE is going to give the Titans a chance in this one. Why should they? This is a team that was outscored during the regular season, only to own seven victories by a TD or less. The most recent came on Wild Card Weekend, in improbable fashion, as they rallied back from a 21-3 deficit to defeat Kansas City 22-21 as 9-pt underdogs. Now they must travel to Foxboro to take on the defending Super Bowl Champion Patriots, who are rested and highly unlikely to lose. Thankfully, however, we don't need anything close to a SU win here. The oddsmakers (predictably) are being all too generous in this one, installing Tennessee as a near 2-TD dog. My own power rankings say the spread should be closer to 10. I, for one, don't believe New England is as impervious as they're made out to be, thus I'm fading them in this spot. Take the points. 

Last week saw the Titans take advantage of a suspect Chiefs' defense, one that has been "bend but don't break" for years under Andy Reid. KC was middle of the road in PPG allowed during the regular season (21.2), but 28th in yards at 365.1. I bring this up because New England's own "bend but don't break" mentality is far more severe. The Patriots are a completely misleading 5th in points allowed (18.5 per game) coming into this game as they happen to also rank 29th in yards allowed per game (366.0). Eventually, that catches up w/ a defense. For all the talk about how weak the AFC South (Tennessee's division) is, New England gets to play six games every year against Buffalo, Miami and the Jets. No wonder they win 12+ games every year.

Then there is the matter of the reported inner turmoil engulfing the Patriots' organization. Normally, I put very little stock into such stuff, but here it makes sense. Also, both coordinators (Josh McDaniel and Matt Patricia) may very well have "one foot out the door" at this point as both are heavily rumored to be taking head coaching jobs elsewhere next season. The Patriots are not "as dominant as ever" in 2017 as they were only +28.1 YPG and barely outgained their opponents on a per play basis (6.1 to 6.0). That number of YPP allowed was one of the worst marks in the league. I like the Tennessee offense better w/ Derrick Henry as the feature back as he had 147 yds in the 2nd half alone last week. New England's defense ranks 31st against the run. I don't think this will be a blowout. 8* Tennessee 

10* Brooklyn (7:05 ET): Second night of a back to back for the Wizards and I don't trust them enough to cover against a lesser opponent following a SU win. Last night saw them down the atrocious Magic, 125-119, a game which featured little to no defense (both teams scored 30+ in each of the first three quarters!), but Washington failed to cover as 10.5-pt chalk. That makes it four ATS losses in a row for them. Brooklyn comes in on a bit of an ATS role having covered seven of its last eight games, including an outright win last night in Atlanta as 2.5-pt dogs. So often, we see a team playing on the road and w/o rest be undervalued. I believe that to be the case here. Take the points. 

Washington is now just 8-20 ATS as a favorite and 8-16 ATS vs. teams w/ losing records. They've allowed 100 pts in 13 consecutive games, so it would take a really impressive outburst offensively for them to cover a spread as large as this. They couldn't last night, despite shooting 56.8% from the field. Now they were only 4 of 16 from three-point range, but any gains made in that area tonight will be offset by the extreme likelihood of them not coming anywhere close to going 50 of 79 (63.1%!) from two-point range again. The 74 pts scored in the paint last night were a season-high. The Wizards were very lucky that Orlando missed 16 of its 22 field goal attempts in the 4th quarter, because before that they were at 60 percent for the game themselves! Washington is just plain bad defensively as they are allowing an average of 107.8 pts the L5 games.

Brooklyn is far more respectable this season than in year's past as they're "only" being outscored by an average of 2.8 points per game (-6.7 PPG last year). While they are by no means a good shooting team they should find success against a leaky Wizards defense for all the reasons listed above. Also, it's not like the Nets haven't found success against the Wiz this season. They're 2-0 SU/ATS in head to head matchups, including a 119-84 win last month where they led by as many as 40 points! Washington has been pretty dreadful in revenge spots this season. Most shocking of all is the level of defense the Nets have played against the Wiz this year, holding them to an average of 91 PPG on less than 40% shooting, including 9 of 42 from three-point range. 10* Brooklyn

10* Philadelphia (4:30 ET): For the 1st time ever, we have a #6 seed favored over a #1 seed in the Divisional Round. In fact, according to my own research this will be just the third time under the current playoff format (dates back to 1990) that the team coming off a bye is a dog. The first two instances, both recent, have produced mixed results. The first occurred in 2011 w/ the Alex Smith-led 49ers beating the Saints 36-32 as 4-pt pups in a great game. The next time (2013) again involved the 49ers, but this time the proverbial "shoe was on the other foot" as they came in as 1.5-pt faves at Carolina and won 23-10. There really was no extenuating circumstance as two why either home team was a dog in those two situations, other than that they were considered inferior to their opponent. 

Here, there is most definitely an "extenuating circumstance." The Eagles are w/o their starting QB Carson Wentz, a MVP candidate that was lost to a season-ending injury late in the regular season. Even if you are adamant about Wentz's importance to the team, it is difficult to justify the change in spread here. My own power rankings, if Wentz were playing, would have the Eagles laying about a touchdown. Even Wentz's biggest supporters could not possibly claim he's worth 10 pts to the spread, a number only reserved for the likes of Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady and even they may not be worth quite that much. Philly is 7-1 SU at home this year, their lone loss coming in the meaningless regular season finale when they rested key players. Yes, I know the offense did not look good in the last two games. But, the coaching staff and first team offense has now had ample time to prepare for Nick Foles being the starter. Foles has been a starter before in this league and looked good against the Giants three weeks ago. The Eagles have a good enough team where the QB does not have to carry them. 

Atlanta impressed many w/ their 26-13 win at Los Angeles last week. However, that was in many ways a "phony blowout." The Falcons were actually outgained 361-322 w/ the difference being 10 pts off two costly Rams' special teams turnovers. Also, there was a late "goal line stand" where the Rams normally would have kicked a FG and it appeared on 4th down that the Falcons got away w/ pass interference. Just last year, the Eagles' defense shut down a far more potent Falcons' offense, holding them to a season-low 15 pts. As discussed in last week's analysis (had Under Atlanta-LA), this year's Falcons' offense is scoring way less than LY (22.3 PPG vs. 34 PPG). Though the weather isn't expected to be nasty Saturday night, Atlanta still is a dome team playing outdoors. Sure, they won last week, but that was in warm in LA where the homefield advantage is about as minimal as anywhere in the league. I expect Foles to play well here and the Eagles' defense (#1 in the league against the run!) to be the difference maker. Atlanta may very well run out of gas after needing to beat Carolina in the reg season finale, then flying out West LW to beat the Rams (now coming back East). They are just 3-6 ATS this year on the road. 10* Philadelphia

8* Oregon (2:00 ET): The Ducks came up big for me on Thursday, upsetting what was a highly overrated Arizona State team. Naturally, you'd call for a letdown here, but they're getting points against an Arizona team that has its own set of problems right now. Wildcats HC Sean Miller recently went on the record, saying he can't get his team "to play for him" and "can't reach" them. I don't think a solitary win over Oregon State (didn't cover) Thursday at home was the cure-all either. Now you may be wondering what Miller is taking about considering his team is 13-4 SU and ranked 17th in the country. But more was expected from this team, even if they still should be considered the "class" of the Pac 12. Take the points here. 

Back to back wins over ranked opponents, both on the road no less, would obviously be huge for Oregon. Remember the Ducks were a Final Four team last year. Now they did lose a ton from that team, but HC Dana Altman is 30-15 ATS the L3 seasons in Pac 12 play and 26-9 ATS off a conference win. The Ducks destroyed Arizona State on the interior Thursday, outscoring the Sun Devils 38-16 in the paint and 15 offensive rebounds led to 15 second chance points. They are the 1st road team to win in Tempe this season. Now can they turn the trick in Tucson? History says "yes" as they are 21-5 ATS their L26 games against teams averaging 77+ PPG (Arizona comes in averaging 82.5). Oregon averages 81.3 PPG themselves, so they can hang.

Arizona is only 5-10 ATS when favored this season. They're also just 2-8 ATS against teams that have winning records. So you can start to understand Miller's criticism. It came after a loss at Colorado last Saturday. They never led in that game and it simply wasn't as close as the 80-77 final suggests as the Wildcats shot just 30 percent in the 1st half and fell behind 45-29. The 62-53 win over Oregon State was also a tad bit misleading as they trailed at the half and did not start to pull away until the final six minutes of the game. It helped that they were facing a drastically inferior opponent that shot only 39.3% from the floor. But Arizona only scored 62 and like Oregon State, the Ducks employ a zone (which always seems to befuddle the Wildcats). Also, the Ducks won't be lacking in confidence here as they won their last visit to Tucson, which ended Arizona's 49-game home win streak. 8* Oregon 

8* Under Lakers/Mavs (2:05 ET): Two teams at the bottom of the Western Conference meet Saturday afternoon and at least they can say they'll be done in time to watch the first NFL playoff game. The Lakers, in the midst of the circus known as Lavar Ball, have all of a sudden won three straight after previously losing nine in a row. All three wins came at home, however. Dallas, meanwhile, has turned things around somewhat after a dreadful start to the season. They're actually a respectable 10-11 SU their L21 games including 6-3 their L9. But, as a favorite, they're tough to like as they've gone just 4-8 SU and ATS in that role this season. But I don't like the Lakers in this spot either, given their poor history vs. the Mavs (lost 14 straight to them!). What I do like here though is the total, which seems too high, especially from the Dallas perspective. Take the Under. 

There was a time when the Lakers ranked pretty high in defensive efficiency. HC Luke Walton was quite critical of his team on that end of the floor during the nine-game losing streak. But they still rank a very respectable 12th in defensive efficiency for the year after holding B2B opponents (one San Antonio!) below 90 pts. Those two opponents - the Spurs and Kings - both rank in the bottom five in the league in pace. Fortunately here for the Lakers, the Mavs are not far above that, ranking 6th slowest. Most impressive though is holding four straight opponents below 44% shooting from the floor. Meanwhile, the Lakers themselves actually rank 1st in the league in pace (most possessions per game), but at the same time they're horribly inefficient as they rank 28th on offense. Like their L2 opponents, they didn't break 100 pts in the L2 games either. 

As for Dallas, I had the Under in their most recent home game, a 114-99 win over Orlando (cashed!). They followed that up by going to Charlotte the next night and winning outright (as 6.5-pt dogs), 115-111 (that game obviously went Over). So, despite both being considered "also-rans," each team is on a winning streak here. Note that the Mavs are 30-13 Under the L3 seasons when coming off a SU win as a dog. They have also - shockingly - scored 114+ in six of their previous seven games. Needless to say, I don't think they do that here. 8* Under Lakers/Mavs

10* Florida State (2:00 ET): This is a spot that I'm all too apt to jump on as the home favorite is off a SU loss (in that same role) its last time out. Florida State lost to Louisville on Wednesday, 73-69 as 6.5-pt chalk, but lucky for them Syracuse is not Louisville. This is a really crucial game for the 'Noles as they've dropped three of four (every loss by 7 pts or less), but note the one win during this stretch came over North Carolina (here in Tallahassee). The L'ville loss was their first at home all season. This is a team I still have ranked in my top 30 nationally. As for Syracuse, not only are they not Louisville, they're not even your usual Orange squad under Jim Boeheim. They've lost three straight ACC games following the usual Jim Boeheim cupcake-filled non-conference schedule (bereft of "true" road games). Lay the points 

For the record, it's not just me that thinks highly of the Seminoles. They come into this game ranked #23 in the country (loss occured after latest poll was released). The loss also snapped a 28-game home win streak. It's not like they came out of the gates slowly either. They had a 13-pt halftime lead and it was looking like they were well on their way to another home victory. But after connecting on 18 of 39 FG attempts in the 1st half, they went just 8 of 26 from the field in the 2H. It also didn't help that they committed six turnovers in the first six minutes after halftime. This is a squad that averages 83.6 PPG overall and 88.9 at home. So, they were held well under their scoring average. I don't expect that to be the case for a second straight game.

Like FSU, Syracuse's three ACC losses have all been by seven points or less. The win came against Virginia Tech. Despite a relatively strong defense (trademark zone!), the Orange can't seem to hit "water from a boat" themselves as they're off B2B sub-40% efforts from the field, averaging just 55 PPG. If you can't win a game, at home, where you hold the opposition to a 30.0 FG% (like the 'Cuse did vs. Notre Dame), then I don't know what to say. Even against said zone, I expect FSU to shoot better from three-point range than they have in their L2 games (27.1%). This is a brutal spot for the Orange, who simply lack offensive firepower, three days after playing on the road at Virginia. They got all of ZERO bench pts in that game. That won't cut it.  10* Florida State

10* Memphis (9:05 ET): I came into this season thinking it wouldn't be a particularly good one for the Grizzlies. However, I had no idea things could get this dire. They enter Friday w/ the second worst record in the Western Conference, only one-half game ahead of Sacramento. Injuries, particularly Mike Conley's Achilles, have been the primary culprit, but at least the team is showing signs of life lately. They've at least been competitive in going 5-1 ATS the L6 games and just beat New Orleans on Wednesday, 105-102, as a small home underdog. They're getting enough points here where I like them against a Denver team that is on a season-worst three-game losing skid w/ two of those defeats coming to Sacramento and Atlanta. Take the points. 

The Nuggets are thought to have one of the strongest home court advantages in the league. They are 14-5 SU here and averaging 110.9 points per game. But they lost, to Atlanta, last time out. They scored only 97 points (on 40.0% shooting) and what's key here is the Hawks are one of the few teams in the league w/ a worse record than the Grizzlies. Also, as mentioned above, the Nuggets also recently lost to the Kings, albeit that was on the road and they (Denver) were in a horrible scheduling spot. Still, if the Nuggets want to be a playoff team, they can't be losing to such opponents. They are only 9-12 ATS vs. teams w/ losing records this season.

Memphis is still w/o Conley and Chandler Parsons, but is in a good place due to the schedule. Playing in Denver in the second night of a back to back is terrible, but not only did the Grizz have last night off, they've played just one time in the previous six days! They were able to beat the Pelicans despite not even shooting the ball very well (42.0%) and lost to the Wizards by only two points despite shooting even worse (40.7%). Yes, both those games were at home, but the team has shot better than 52% in two of its previous three road games. This is a team that's only being outscored by 3.3 PPG on the season. While Denver just got beat by Sacramento, the Grizzlies hammered the Kings the week before (also in Sacramento), by 18 points. (They were in the second game of a back to back as well). I expect this to be a close game. 10* Memphis

10* Chicago (8:35 ET): This is a crucial game for the Blackhawks, who just lost 2-1 (here at home) to Minnesota on Wednesday. As discussed before, the Central Division is absolutely LOADED this season w/ every team owning a winning record in regulation and none having a negative goal differential. The team at the top of the heap, Winnipeg, is Chicago's opponent tonight. The Jets have won three straight and are 7-1-2 L10. I had them Tuesday as they laid waste to Buffalo, 7-4, on the road. Tonight marks the second game of a four-city trek as they'll be in Minnesota tomorrow night. It will be interesting to see who the Jets start in goal given that this is the front end of a back to back. Chicago also has questions in goal here.

I feel that the sense of urgency is likely to propel the Blackhawks to victory tonight. They might only be 11-7-2 at home this year, but they are outscoring their opponents by a full goal per game here, so the record "should" be better. They also average 36.0 shots per game here on home ice. Getting the puck on net has NOT been an issue for this club as they regularly outshoot the opposition (#1 in shots per game), including their last two opponents quite handily. Why then are they languishing near the bottom of their division? Well, a bad power play hasn't helped and neither has #1 goalie Corey Crawford being injured. But a 6-10 SU record in one-goal games (six of those losses coming in OT or shootout) has probably been most damning. This team is better than its record, in my opinion.

Tip your cap to Winnipeg, who is trying to make the postseason for just the 2nd time since relocating from Atlanta. That will likely happen, but quite simply this is not the same team on the road where they have a losing record and have been outscored on the season. Part of the issue is that six of their seven OT/shootout losses have been away from home. But, again, I point to the fact they've been outscored in all road games. While they lead the Western Conference in goals per game, they average only 2.8 gpg on the road (pretty pedestrian). Goalie Connor Hellebuyck has bailed them out of late, but is due to "cool off" as is the Jets offense. The Blackhawks are likely to start Anton Forsberg, who has a .949 save percentage at home. 10* Chicago

8* Under Magic/Wizards (7:05 ET): Washington is reeling after B2B losses here at home (were favored in both games) to the Bucks and Jazz. However, that's nothing compared to the amount of losing the Magic are experiencing. Believe it or not, but Orlando was once 8-4 and being talked about as a potential playoff darkhorse. Since then, they have lost an unfathomable 26 out of 30 games. That includes a 130-103 loss to these Wizards back on December 23rd (were 12-pt dogs). The line is shorter here, but despite the earlier Wiz cover, I simply cannot back them in this spot given their poor 8-19 ATS record as chalk. I'm also not about to back the Magic right now. Thankfully, it's the total that merits a play.

While the pointspread has curiously declined here, the O/U line has increased fairly dramatically from that first meeting. I suppose that was to be expected seeing as the Wizards scored 130 pts and the game easily went Over. But this number is high - by both team's standards. Orlando has topped 103 pts only once in its previous six tries, three times failing to even crack triple digits. They are 25th in offensive efficiency for the year and playing at a fast pace really hasn't worked for them. Washington is nothing more than a middle of the road team offensively. Though they shot 52.6% from the floor against Utah Wednesday night, they missed 14 of their final 22 FG attempts, which explains how they lost that game despite the Jazz being (very) short-handed. 

In the last meeting between these two, both teams shot the ball pretty well, the Wizards (obviously) in particular. The Wiz finished at 54.7% from the floor including 16 of 30 from three-point range. Despite Orlando's continued ineptitude on the defensive end of the floor, I wouldn't expect Washington to match those numbers tonight. Nor are they likely to score 72 pts in the 1st half again (like they did in the 1st meeting). Though they are division rivals, these teams have met just twice in the past 12 months. The Wizards are 15-8 Under against teams w/ losing records while the Magic have gone 4-1 Under here in January. Overall, the Wizards are one of the top Under teams in the league (third), having gone 24-15-2 in all games. 8* Under Magic/Wizards

10* Nebraska (7:00 ET): The Big 10 weekend slate gets started a little early in Happy Valley as Penn State hosts Nebraska Friday night. In what is a VERY top-heavy league this year, these two squads are presumed for the "middle of the pack," but Nebraska comes into tonight actually tied for 4th at 3-2 SU (12-6 overall). Penn State has the same overall record, but is 2-3 SU in Big 10 play. Granted, the Nittany Lions' three losses have all come by margins of six points or fewer, but they've also yet to play either of the two heavyweights - Michigan State and Purdue. Those two are who handed Nebraska its two losses and both games were on the road. Last time out, the Cornhuskers upended Wisconsin (in Lincoln) 63-59 as 1.5-pt faves. 

The 'Huskers led by as many as 13 in the 2H vs. Wisconsin in what (as you can see by the line) was no upset. Now, free throws were a key in the win as Nebraska went 21 of 28 from the line while Wisconsin was just 4 of 10. They probably can't count on such an edge taking place here tonight, on the road. State College has also not been kind to them as they've won just one of their previous six visits here. But might this team be a little different as it has gone 3-2 SU against five NCAA Tourney teams from LY? This has been a strong spread team as well (11-5 ATS overall) and they play defense too. Their last three opponents have been held to 42.4%, 44.3% and 29.2% overall from the floor and all were Big 10 teams. Even better is that none of the three shot better than 29% from three-point range (key!).

While Nebraska was beating Wisconsin on Tuesday, Penn State lost to Indiana despite outshooting the Hoosiers, pretty drastically. The Nittany Lions finished 50% from the floor while IU was at just 40%. How then, do we explain that result? Well, the bench was outscored 25-1 and IU made 18 of its 22 free throws while Penn State made just 12 of its 18. Also, the Nittany Lions committed 14 turnovers to the Hoosiers' nine. But consider this: PSU's top two players - Carr and Stevens - combined for 48 pts and they still lost (on an overall good shooting night for the team). Nebraska managed to defeat Wisconsin despite shooting only 5 of 19 from three-point range. This spread is too high. Penn State, keep in mind, lost to Rider back on 12.22. 10* Nebraska

10* Oregon (10:00 ET): I think I speak for many when I say that I never took Arizona State seriously, not even as the Sun Devils could still claim to be one of the few remaining unbeatens in the country. They got as high as #2 in the polls, but this is barely a Top 25 team in my opinion. So, OK, they did win at Kansas in their lone "true" non-conference road game. They also upset Xavier here in Tempe. But a team that was projected to finish as low as sixth this year in the Pac 12 has predictably come back "down to Earth" now that conference play has commenced. ASU lost B2B games at Arizona and Colorado to bookend the New Year and followed that up w/ a close call in Salt Lake earlier this week (beat Utah by three). I'll take the points here as the (now) #11 team in the country is still due to tumble down the rankings a bit more. 

Oregon comes into this game well-rested. They're also angry as last Friday saw them fall to rival Oregon State, in Corvallis, 76-64 as 2.5-pt favorites. It was the second time in three Pac 12 games that the Ducks lost outright as favorites as they also lost at home to Utah in the opener (beat Colorado in between). This will be the 1st time in conference play that they are getting points. It's only the third time all season that the Ducks have been a dog. They're 8-3 ATS in that role the L3 seasons, not to mention they're also 6-1 ATS the L7x they have taken the court w/ five or six days rest. They've also been exceptional against high scoring teams such as ASU, going 20-5 ATS their L25 games vs. opponents that average 77+ PPG.

Now Arizona State has enjoyed its own success at the betting window this year, covering all but two lined games, one of those coming when they were 38-pt favorites. They're also 9-0 ATS this season after scoring 80+ pts the previous game and haven't lost at home. This is their first time hosting in Pac 12 play as the first three games were all on the road. That said, their recent shooting decline is a concern and I don't think a simple return to Tempe is a "cure-all." Oregon (a Final Four team LY, remember!) can both rebound (+6.0 rpg) and defend (opponents shooting below 40% for the year) and that can keep an underdog in any game. 10* Oregon

10* Sacramento (10:05 ET): The Kings are, in my opinion, the worst team in basketball. Sure, there are  teams w/ worse records (two to be precise) and they are tied w/ two others (Lakers, Grizzlies) for the worst record in the Western Conference. But no team in the league can "touch" their -8.7 PPG scoring differential. That being said, there are two factors pointing to me taking the points here. One is that they are at home. Whereas the Kings are being outscored by double digits on the road, they're "only" -5.7 PPG at home and a respectable 7-12 straight up. They even won outright over Denver here, last Saturday, 106-98 while taking 8.5 pts from the oddsmakers. That win is relevant to the discussion here because like the Nuggets there, Sacramento's opponent for tonight is coming in w/o rest. Take the points.

Not only are the Clippers coming into this game w/o rest, it also happens to be a massive letdown spot as last night saw them STUN Golden State, 125-106 as 12-pt underdogs. That game was in Oracle Arena too and the Clips were short-handed (no Blake Griffin)! They absolutely destroyed the Dubs on the glass, outrebounding them 61-37, but the real story was Lou Williams scoring a career-best (easily!) 50 points. Needless to say, Williams probably won't come close to that point total tonight nor will reserve Tyrone Wallace be scoring 22 pts here (That was his career-high last night as well!). Furthermore, the Clippers have been absolutely dreadful in the second of back to back games this season, going 0-6 straight up. This is not a good spot for them.

The Kings have won just one of their previous six games and just lost at the Lakers, by double digits, scoring only 86 points. Prior to that, they did play San Antonio tough here at home (lost by only 7) and then there was the win over Denver. They also beat Cleveland here at home right before the New Year. I know it seems a little scary taking the Kings in this price range, but when the Clippers visited earlier in the year, it was only a two-point game. Following last night's huge win, there is simply no way that the Clips will be able to have the same intensity and it really can't be overstated just how short-handed they are right now (as many as six players out!). 10* Sacramento

8* Washington (7:05 ET): I simply can't reiterate enough just how "thin" the line is between the teams on top in the NHL and those that aren't at the very bottom of the league. We are starting to see some separation in the Eastern Conference where Atlantic Division leading Tampa Bay has been out in front all season and has put distance between themselves and the rest of the pack. In fact, there is now a somewhat sizable gap between the top three in the Atlantic and the rest of the field. But over in the Metro (where we're likely to see five playoff teams), things remain a bit more "murkey." Washington leads the division, but both Columbus and New Jersey are well within striking distance. To me, that means fewer letdowns should be expected from this division leader and thus I'll take them at this relatively inexpensive price (at home!) on the money line tonight.

Making this bet look all the more sound is the recent form of the respective clubs. Carolina has dropped four of five, including a 5-4 loss to the Caps back on 1.2. That was a pretty painful loss as not only did it occur at home and in overtime, but the Hurricanes had a 38-26 edge in shots on goal. More often than not, the Canes do enjoy the edge in shots on goal over their opponents. But it's simply not translating to the kind of success that you'd think it would. Granted, it has been a brutal stretch of games that has seen them take on St. Louis, Washington, Pittsburgh, Boston and Tampa Bay, the last three all coming on the road. But things get no easier here where they have not won in the last two seasons. Their last two visits to the Nation's Capital have resulted in losses by a combined margin of 11-1!

Immediately following this game, the teams will rematch in Raleigh. After that, Washington will have five days off. While a break is always welcomed, the Caps probably don't want to stop playing right now as they have gone 13-2-2 since the beginning of December, including five straight victories. During that five-game win streak, they have scored four or more goals four times. Carolina has allowed 5+ goals in each of its last three losses, so this is looking like a real mismatch on paper. Not to mention, the Caps are 17-2 their L19 home games. 8* Washington

10* USC (10:00 ET): This is a classic set up w/ the favorite off a SU loss (as road favorites) taking on an underdog off a PAIR of outright wins as a dog. Things aren't going quite as planned for Andy Enfield's USC Trojans as they'll enter this game w/ only an 11-6 SU record. This is a team that was predicted to finish 2nd in the Pac 12, prior to the start of this campaign. But they've already lost twice in conference play, one of those coming at Stanford (77-76) their last time out. The Trojans were five-point favorites in that contest. They'll be favored again tonight as they host a Colorado team that has to be feeling pretty good about itself following upsets of Arizona State and Arizona. But both upsets took place in Boulder. Not here. Lay the points. 

USC's loss to Stanford was as brutal as it gets as the Cardinal's Deajon Davis hit a 50-foot desperation heave at the buzzer to win the game. The Trojans had led by 11 at the half and by as many as 15. Considering Stanford was coming off a double OT game three nights prior, blowing that kind of lead - even on the road - should not happen. Southern Cal is now just 5-6 SU its last 11 games, including a home loss (in OT) to Princeton. That said, this is still a good offensive team that averages 83.5 PPG at home. They have three losses by two points or less or in overtime. I anticipate them going on a bit of run here w/ a favorable stretch of games this month, making tonight a good "buy low" situation. Following a SU loss this year, the Trojans have gone 4-1 ATS w/ the avg MOV coming by double digits.

Meanwhile, now would be an opportune time to "sell high" on Colorado. As stated above, the Buffaloes just upset both Arizona schools and did it as nine (Arizona St) and 8.5 (Arizona) pt underdogs respectively. ASU was one of the final teams to suffer a loss nationally, but is way overrated. Arizona is also struggling right now, something their own HC will readily admit. A huge key here is venue as "true" road games have been unkind to CU. They are 0-4 SU/ATS in them, including double digit losses at both Oregon and Oregon State in Pac 12 play. So, it's been a very different Buffaloes team we've seen on the road compared to Boulder. This game is in L.A., so it's a no-brainer. 10* USC

10* Over Wild/Blackhawks (8:05 ET): The Central Division is absolutely loaded this year w/ every single team currently enjoying a winning record. One of the two teams in question here, Minnesota, is the only one in the division to have a negative YTD goal differential, but it's only -1 and that's after B2B losses. Chicago actually found itself in last place to start the week (!) but B2B wins have them now tied w/ the Wild and one point ahead of the Avalanche. Both teams played last night and experienced different results. I see no clear edge for a money line play here, but looking at recent results, I see a TON of goals being scored. Therefore, I'm on the Over.

Chicago scored eight times last nine in a dominant win over Ottawa. It was on the road too! The Blackhawks, who have seen six of their previous seven games go Over the total, have scored at least four goals now in four consecutive games. Of those last seven games, six have seen at least seven total goals scored, the lone Under (4-1 win over Edmonton) being the exception. Here at home, scoring has certainly never been a problem for them as they average 3.5 goals per game on 36.1 shot attempts per game. One concern I do have for the Hawks in this spot however, is the fact it's the second night of a back to back and their depth in goal is a question mark right now w/ Corey Crawford still out. Rookie Jeff Glass has turned in a yeoman's effort of late and will probably get the nod here as Anton Forsberg was on the ice last night. But Glass had started to show signs of slippage before resting the last two games. Also, good for us is that all four times Glass has started, the game has gone Over.

Minnesota lost 3-2 at home to Calgary last night, a result made more painful by the fact the game went to overtime and the Wild had a 35-29 edge in shots. Of course, it was also a drastic improvement over their last game when they were beaten 7-2 by Colorado. Looking back, this has been quite the inconsistent team in terms of scoring. Before the B2B losses, they had scored 11 times in wins over Buffalo and Florida, admittedly lesser competition. They are 5-2 Over their last 7 games, however, and 12-5 Over this season on the road when the O/U line is 5.5. Devan Dubnyk appears likely to start in goal and the Over is 17-9 when he plays this year, including 4-0 his last four. 10* Over Wild/Blackhawks

10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): Last night saw OKC stop back home for the only time in a six-game stretch. They lost, 117-106, to Portland as eight-point favorites. It was their second consecutive SU loss in that price range as the game prior saw them suffer an embarrassing double-digit defeat in Phoenix. Meanwhile, Minnesota is off arguably its most impressive win of the Tom Thibodeau-era as they waxed Cleveland 127-99 here at home Monday night. So, the two Northwest Division foes head into tonight's game feeling quite different. I can see this being a potential 1st round (#4 vs. #5) playoff matchup and being that it's a national TV game, the Thunder aren't about to take it lightly, especially given what's happened to them the L2 games. I'm also banking on the T'wolves not being as sharp as they were last tine out. Take the points.

One thing the Thunder have going for them here is that they are a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season. Not only that, they won all four times straight up! Despite the respective records and recent form, I still believe OKC to be the better of the two teams here. Already, this will be the fourth meeting of the season between the pair and Minnesota has gone 3-0 ATS in the previous three. However, all three games were decided by four points or less and by nine points total! The Thunder did win the last one SU though, 111-107 as five-point chalk, for what was at the time their first win all season by eight points or less. (They've subsequently won eight such games!). The first two meetings (both won by Minnesota) were played very early in the season and one of them was decided on a buzzer-beater. This will be the final meeting of the regular season and I'm guessing OKC is going to want to make a statement.

Now the Thunder failed to make a statement last night, losing at home to a Portland team that was w/o its best player (Damian Lillard). They did not shoot nor defend well. Here's the thing though; OKC is a far better defensive team than Minnesota as the two teams rank 6th and 19th respectively in efficiency at that end of the floor. Now the T'wolves have led by 34 and 41 points in each of their last two games and could get PG Jeff Teague back. But what goes up, must come down, and in this case I'm riding w/ a Thunder team that rarely catches points like they are here. 10* Oklahoma City

8* Under Heat/Pacers (7:05 ET): Miami took advantage of a short-handed Toronto team last night, ending the Raptors' 12-game home win streak. Not only did Toronto enter that game w/o Kyle Lowry (bruised tailbone), but they also lost both Serge Ibaka to a second half ejection. Now the Heat's James Johnson was also tossed in the scuffle w/ Ibaka, but I'd say that loss had less effect than what Toronto was dealing with. It was a very low-scoring game, 90-89, as Miami's Wayne Ellington made a layup in the final second for the win. Indiana, on the other hand, comes in rested after defeating Milwaukee Monday night by a score of 109-96. The L3 times these teams have met here at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, the game has stayed Under. Make it four in a row after tonight! 

Prior to last night, the Heat had gone Over in four consecutive games, scoring and allowing 100+ pts every time. They've also now won five straight to climb up to fourth place in the Eastern Conference. Interestingly, on a total points per game basis, this is the lowest scoring team in the East at 202.5 PPG. They average 100.6 (fewest of any team in the East!), but allow only 101.9 (tied for 2nd best). Not surprising then is they're 22-15-1 Under in all games this season. This total, while not high by modern NBA standards, is high for the Heat and you should note that they are 10-3 Under this year when facing a team that averages at least 106 points per game (31-14 Under L45 in that role). 

Pacers' games are higher scoring than Heat games w/ the former's offensive vs. defensive splits being more dramatic. However, Indiana has also held B2B opponents below 100 pts, including Milwaukee to just 96 Monday night. They were even more stout in an ideal spot Saturday, holding Chicago to 86 pts on 37.5% shooting. The Under is 14-7-1 in all Pacers' home games this season and the team is also 11-4 Under when favored, regardless of venue. Myles Turner is likely to miss this game and I can't see Sabonis continuing to average 21 PPG like he has over the last three games. Miami has not fared well here in Indianapolis the last several seasons, losing 10 straight visits here! They are still w/o Dion Waiters and Justise Winslow, by the way. These teams have met twice previously this season w/ both games in Miami and both going Over. But Indiana won't be shooting anywhere close to 60% from the field here like they did in the last meeting. 8* Under Heat/Pacers

10* Under Magic/Mavs (8:35 ET): We just turned the calendar to 2018, but suffice to say neither of these teams will be sniffing the playoffs come April. Orlando actually came into this season w/ playoff aspirations, but after a decent start (8-4 SU through 12 games), the bottom has dropped out here as the team is an absolutely horrific 4-24 its last 28 games. They have just one win since December 6th and I don't know how much longer HC Frank Vogel can keep his job if things keep going this way. Meanwhile, Dallas started its season poorly, but has been far more competitive of late. Though 0-3 SU in the New Year, they'd gone a respectable 8-8 SU their 16 games prior. That said, I don't want to back the Mavs as favorites here. What I will do, however, is call for an Under as Dallas plays at a slow pace and Orlando is quite inefficient.

While they average 105.1 PPG, the Magic are just 27th in the league in offensive efficiency. In what will likely prove to be a low possession game, that means trouble for them. Last time out, the Magic scored 127 points, but it was still not enough against Cleveland (though they did cover as 9-pt home dogs). Dallas is obviously a much different opponent than Cleveland. Something else to consider is that Orlando is 8-1 Under following a game where they allowed 130+ pts (that trend goes back several seasons). Both they and the Cavs shot exactly 50% from the floor on Saturday, something I dare say WON'T be repeated by either team here. Cleveland is a top three efficiency team on offense, but 29th on defense. Dallas is worse offensively (16th), but also better defensively (22nd).

This is actually the third consecutive game where the Mavs are favored. They lost the previous two, to Chicago and New York, outright. They shot only 38% from the floor in Sunday's 100-96 loss to the Knicks. While they could very well improve upon that number tonight, note that the Mavs rank just 23rd in the league in scoring overall (102.0 PPG) and their home games average just 205.8 points per game - total. I expect an ugly game here. 10* Under Magic/Mavs

8* Winnipeg (7:05 ET): The Jets continue to lead the Central Division as they now have 57 points to go a long w/ a +27 goal differential, also a division best. The team is 7-2-1 its L10 games and has been dominant at home all season, going 16-3-1 in Manitoba. Here, they are hitting the road, but fortunate for them they're traveling to Buffalo where they'll find the league-worst Sabres residing. Buffalo has just 29 pts and has dropped four in a row. They are the Eastern Conference's worst team - by a pretty clear margin - and only Arizona has fewer points league-wide. The Sabres have been outscored by 51 goals this season. All things considered, this seems like a pretty cheap price on the favorite.

Buffalo has yet to play a home game in 2018. They began w/ the New Year's Classic against the Rangers (at Citi Field, home of MLB's Mets), a game they lost 3-2 (I had them +1.5 though!). But the three "true" road games that followed all resulted in fairly ugly defeats, including 4-3 at Winnipeg just four days ago. In that game, the power play was the difference as the Jets scored twice w/ the man advantage while the Sabres were 0 for 5. Important to note that the Jets never trailed in the contest and twice were up two goals. The Sabres followed that up w/ a 4-1 loss at Philadelphia. That's bad news for them as they come into tonight's game at 3-10 SU this season after scoring 1 goal or less the previous time out. This team ranks dead last in the league in goals per game and is 29th in goals allowed. Their power play won't help either as it ranks 30th. 

Against a team w/ a winning record, the Sabres are just 2-14 SU this season and they are also 5-24 SU when playing w/ revenge. Winnipeg beat San Jose 4-1 on Sunday and still hasn't lost in regulation since prior to Christmas. The fact they were able to take advantage of the PP the last time vs. Buffalo came as no surprise as the Jets rank 2nd in the league when on the man advantage. They are also third in goals per game. Connor Hellebuyck gives them a substantial edge in goal as well as he has a .923 save percentage in 35 starts this year (.943 L4 starts). Buffalo's best option for between the pipes, Robin Lehner, comes in w/ an .887 save percentage his L4 starts. This game is every bit the total mismatch it appears to be on paper. 8* Winnipeg

8* Georgetown (6:30 ET): There seems to be a bit of a desire (from the general public) to play AGAINST Pat Ewing's Hoyas these days. That probably has a lot to do w/ all we've heard about just how weak the Hoyas' non-conference schedule was. Ironically, G'town wasn't a good bet in the non-conference as they often faced lofty spreads and weren't covering them. But now that Big East play has started and they're a dog every time, we've seen more ATS success. Yes, they were severely routed by Creighton over the weekend, 90-66, as six-point home dogs. But prior to that, they'd gone 2-0-1 ATS in conference games, upsetting DePaul and losing to Butler (2 OT) by just two points (pushed as nine-point dogs at Marquette). Here, Ewing is fortunate to be facing St. John's at a time when the Red Storm have lost four in a row and will be w/o second leading scorer Marcus LoVett. Take the points.

The build up for this game will center around the two coaches, Ewing and Chris Mullin, each of whom led their respective alma maters to greatness over 30 years ago. That makes sense, but also masks the fact both teams are struggling right now. St. John's, like G'town, is off an ugly loss as they were beaten at home (as seven-point favorites), 91-74 by DePaul. The Red Storm have played two Big East home games thus far and lost them by a combined 39 points. They're off to an 0-4 start in conference play and that is largely owed to some terrible defensive efforts. They're giving up 84.5 PPG on 49.8% shooting in league play. There seemed to be a real lack of effort at defending the three-point line vs. DePaul.

G'town is 3-0 ATS the L3 times it has been a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points and 17-7 ATS its last 24. St. John's clearly misses LoVett (knee) and as a result one player (Shamorie Ponds) has had to carry the scoring burden. Ponds has really struggled to shoot the ball of late, including a 7 of 24 effort in the loss to DePaul. Again, the Red Storm just lost - at home - by 17 points to DePaul. That is not good. Georgetown has a sizable (pun intended!) edge in the frontcourt and I anticipate them exploiting that. The Hoyas might never have been as good as their record this season, but they are worth taking plus the points here in what could be an outright upset. 8* Georgetown

10* Alabama (8:45 ET): It's an all-SEC National Championship Game and so it's only appropriate that it will be played in Atlanta. Strangely enough, Alabama and Georgia don't play all that often. This will be just the fifth meeting in the Nick Saban-era (and only the 3rd since '09) and first w/ his fmr DC Kirby Smart as Georgia HC. UGA last beat 'Bama in '07 (Saban's 1st year) and hasn't visited Tuscaloosa since. The last meeting, held two seasons ago in Athens, was won by the Crimson Tide 38-10, as 1.5-pt dogs. The Tide also beat the 'Dawgs here in Atlanta (in the Georgia Dome) back in the 2012 SEC Championship. Ironically, Bama has played the team they just ousted from the playoff, Clemson, more times in the L3 seasons than they have this conference rival. So this is really nothing like the last all-SEC National Champ Game, Bama vs. LSU, back in '11. 

Alabama beat Clemson in the CFB Semifinal (Sugar Bowl), 24-6, as 3.5-pt favorites. That was a heavily hyped revenge game from LY's Champ Game and the end of a compelling trilogy. Compared to most games, and particularly UGA's Rose Bowl win over Oklahoma (more on that later), Bama-Clemson III was a real defensive affair. The Tide held the Tigers to just 188 total yards (gained only 261 themselves). A late INT return made the final score seem more lopsided than the game actually was (10-6 game late in 3Q). That said, Bama remains the dominant force in College Football. They are #1 in the country in defensive efficiency, key because UGA is #2! The key is they allow 4.6 PPG fewer than the Bulldogs. In 9 of 13 games, they've allowed 10 pts or less. This is a team that has won 40 of its last 43 games straight up, including 24 of 26 against the SEC. They've won 11 straight games on turf (9-2 ATS). 

While playing for the National Championship has become "old hat" for Saban and Alabama, Georgia is gunning for its 1st title since 1980, the days of Herschel Walker! Don't be surprised if the spot is a little "big for them." QB Jake Fromm is a true frosh and no team has won a Nat'l Title w/ a true frosh as its starting QB since '85. Yes, they were facing Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl, but the defense giving up 48 pts and 531 total yds is a little concerning, no? Also, there's the matter of Smart being a Saban disciple. Saban is 11-0 SU all-time against former assistants w/ every game decided by at least two touchdowns. Talk about the teacher knowing how to beat the student. Yes, these teams are built similarly, but Bama is better and used to the stage. I don't make a habit of betting against Nick Saban and won't here. Remember that Georgia did lose at Auburn earlier this year, 40-17. 10* Alabama

8* Over Alabama/Georgia (8:45 ET): When you have the two top defenses in the country (in terms of efficiency) and two of the top four in points allowed per game (Bama #1, UGA #4), then Under is the natural inclination when it comes to betting the total. Alabama's Sugar Bowl win over Clemson was a real "defensive affair" w/ the Crimson Tide posting season lows in both total yards and yards per play. One-third of their plays went for zero or negative yards. Over the eight quarters, the Tide have scored just four touchdowns on 23 drives. Facing a pretty comparable defense in Monday night's Championship Game, another "ugly" affair has to be on tap, right? After all, Bama's defense was dominant as ever against Clemson, holding them to just 6 points and 188 total yards.

Not so fast, my friend! Georgia's thrilling Rose Bowl victory over Oklahoma (best Rose Bowl ever?) was no "defensive affair" as the 'Dawgs prevailed 54-48 in double OT w/ the two offenses combining for 1,058 yards. Now that was against an Oklahoma offense that is far more prolific than any other in the CFP and quite possibly the entire country. Alabama is a MUCH different opponent than the Sooners w/ defense being their strong side. But Bama still comes in averaging 37.9 points per game. The Georgia offense averages 36.3 PPG. With all the attention being paid to the two defenses, might we be underrating the offenses? 

This will be the second lowest O/U line for any Alabama game this season. The only lower one (43.0) was vs. Vanderbilt and saw the Tide blow by the total themselves in a 59-0 win. Now, pretty clearly, that kind of lopsided result will NOT be repeated here. But whatever decline in scoring there is from Bama's perspective can be offset by the Georgia offense being significantly better than Vandy's. Away from Tuscaloosa, the Tide allows 17.3 PPG, more than double what they allow at home. Georgia had only two games w/ an O/U line lower than this one (vs Vandy and Florida) and both went Over. Ironically, UGA scored 42 and 45 pts in those two games. Again, I don't think for a second either offense will score 40+, but they can both score 20+ and don't discount the possibility of a defensive or special teams TD here. 8* Over Alabama/Georgia 

10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): In the past, I've been quite criticial of Cleveland and their inability to defend well. They come into this game ranked a rather unsightly 27th in defensive efficiency after allowing 127 pts in a win (!) over Orlando Saturday night. As a result, the Cavs have been HUGE money-burners in the favorite role this season, now 6-24 against the spread. So, what's w/ the endorsement here? Well, Minnesota happens to be a good matchup for LeBron and company as the Timberwolves are in the same boat in terms of offensive vs. defensive splits. While ranking 5th in offensive efficiency (Cavs are 3rd), the T'wolves are 20th on the defensive end. They have also struggled against the East this year, going just 2-11 ATS (4-10 SU). 

Fortunately for Cleveland, they were able to turn in one of their highest scoring efforts of the year Saturday in Orlando, finishing the game w/ a 131 pts on relatively mediocre shooting. They built a lead as large as 20 pts going into the 4Q, which is when the poor defense made things closer than they ought to have been. (Magic scored 40 pts in the 4Q). Still, as you can tell, there is nothing wrong w/ the Cavs offensively right now as they come into tonight averaging 110.5 PPG. Unlike most of their games, there's no real worries about a pointspread here as a SU win basically equates to a cover. Remember that Isaiah Thomas is now in the Cavs lineup as well. It's a small sample size, but the two games where Thomas has played have seen the team average 129 pts! 

Minnesota has been unusually stout at the defensive end lately, holding each of its previous five foes below 100 pts (94.6). But they've played some weak teams during that stretch, such as Brooklyn and the Lakers. For the season, the T'wolves are allowing 47.8% shooting at home, including 37.8% from three-point range. Cleveland is one of the better three-point shooting teams in the league right now and I expect them to score plenty tonight. How much they give up is another matter, but the number won't be as many as they score. Having dropped five of eight, the Cavs have fallen five games back of Boston for the top spot in the East, so it's imperative they finish this road trip strong. 10* Cleveland

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): Only one game on the NHL docket Monday and I was waiting to pounce (line posted late) as Columbus is playing the second night of a back to back, following a shootout win over Florida last night. I happened to be on the Blue Jackets Sunday as their woeful power play is what saved them. Twice, the league's worst PP unit scored, offsetting some key injuries. But, the task is much tougher tonight as C-bus hits the road to face Toronto. The Maple Leafs are off B2B wins (after a 3-game losing skid) and have been one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference all season. Currently, they are third in the Atlantic Division (one point behind red-hot Boston), but I also have them as the third best team in the Conference! The better team being in the more ideal situation leads to an easy call here. 

Unlike the Blue Jackets, the Leafs happen to have excellent special teams as they rank in the top 10 in both power play percentage and penalty killing. They're also 7th in the league in goals per game. That likely means trouble for a Columbus offense that, like I said in yday's analysis, often struggles to find the back of the net. The Jackets still rank 27th in gpg even though yday's performance on the PP raised them out of last (now 30th) in that department. With this being the 2nd game of a B2B, will the overworked Sergei Bobrovsky be in goal again for Columbus? Bobrovsky has started all three games for the team since we turned the calendar to 2018 as well as seven of the last eight games. It's a big dropoff to backup Joonas Korpisalo (.889 save percentage on the road), though it's also worth noting that Bobrovsky himself isn't nearly as effective on the road as he is at Nationwide Arena. 

The Maple Leafs last won a game in regulation all the way back on 12.28 at lowly Arizona. Their last two wins, here at home, have both come via shootouts. Compared to last year, the Leafs have been far better in shootouts in 2017-18 (4-1 SU). They haven't been very good against C-bus, however, dropping three of the past four meetings including a 4-2 decision back in December on the road. The Jackets have also won their last three visits here. But I'll call for that streak to end tonight as Toronto is 13-6 SU at the Air Canada Center this year. Columbus has not scored more than two goals in regulation in any of its L4 games. 8* Toronto 

8* LA Lakers (9:35 ET): Two bottom feeders meet late Sunday night, so I don't anticipate a huge handle on this game. That said, I do think it's worth a shot taking the Lakers (even as a favorite!), who are desperate right now to snap a nine-game losing skid that started before X-Mas. Even worse is the fact that six of those losses took place here at Staples Center. But absences have played a role and while the idiotic LaVar Ball remains an annoyance, I feel tonight is a case of "if not now, when?" for the team. Atlanta comes in as the only team w/ a worse record than the Lakers and will be playing its third consecutive road game here. Lay the short number. 

While six of the Lakers last seven losses have come by double digits, the Hawks have been a surprisingly "tough out" as they've covered 12 of the last 18 games (including one push). But they too were routed their last time out, 110-89 by Portland as they trailed by as many as 25 pts in the fourth quarter. The Hawks have actually been favored in five games this year, winning and covering four of them. But otherwise, they rarely win as their SU record as a dog is 6-27. They lose those games by an average of 6.2 points per game, but w/ the pointspread usually generous, they can at least reward those taking them ATS. But here, the number is short and you don't see that often w/ this team, at least on the road. They are just 3-17 SU on the road this season, the worst such record in the league.

The Lakers defense has ranged from horrific to non-existent of late and that has to stop. There was a time earlier in the year when they actually ranked in the top ten in defensive efficiency (currently 15th). HC Luke Walton seems cognizant of that. "Early in the year, if we had off-shooting nights, like we've had a lot of, we were still right in ball games, because we were defending our tails off," he said. The Lakers need to win here to avoid matching the franchise's longest losing streak in history (set in the dreadful period when Magic Johnson was coaching the team in '94). Fortunately here, Atlanta happens to rank 27th in defensive efficiency. The Lakers beat the Hawks both times last season and can do it again tonight. 8* LA Lakers

10* Iowa (8:00 ET): Maryland is a team that would find itself squarely on the bubble if this were March as most "Bracketology experts" have them right on the cutline as one of the final four teams in the field of 68. However, the Terps certainly did NOT look like a NCAA Tournament team earlier in the week when they were thrashed (by 30!) at top ranked Michigan State. Iowa isn't even thinking Tourney right now after it dropped B2B home games to Ohio State and Michigan. Just when it appeared as if the Hawkeyes had things turned around (five straight wins to end 2017), they drop a pair in Iowa City to start the new year. They have yet to win a single Big 10 game (0-4 SU!), so expect a desperate dog tonight in College Station. Take the points.

Maryland is 2-2 vs. the Big 10 and 13-4 SU overall. The two losses did come to Purdue and Michigan State, not only the two best teams in the league, but two of the best teams in the country. However, the two wins are by a combined seven points, one of them (at Illinoi) by only one. That's significant b/c Illinois is the only other Big Ten team besides Iowa w/o a win in league play. Every Terrapins' Big 10 tilt, besides the last one, was close. Thursday in East Lansing, however, they were completely decimated in a 91-61 defeat. They had no answer for the Spartans' depth or shooting (57.7% overall), which included a season-high 16 three-point FGs made. Will tonight's game be a significant drop in class for Maryland? Certainly. But might the Terps also still be "licking their wounds?" Probably. 

Iowa has its issues defensively as they've given up at least 73 points in four consecutive games and 92 the last time out, vs. Ohio State. This is a young and not particularly deep team (though they do play 11), but still, falling behind by as many as 17 pts (in the first half) in your own gym is pretty unacceptable. It was the second straight game where the Hawkeyes got off to a bad start. They also allowed the Buckeyes to shoot 53.0% from the field. But this looks to be a generous spread as the Hawkeyes haven't really been a dog of this magnitude, save for once, this season. Maryland has been good at home so far, but they've yet to blow a Big 10 opponent out. 10* Iowa

8* Columbus (5:05 ET): As discussed here many times over, the Metropolitan is likely to send FIVE teams to the playoffs this year while the Atlantic will only send three. Those three seem pretty well definied at this point w/ Tampa Bay, Toronto and Boston all having broken away "from the pack" (there's an 11-pt cushion between them and the field). The Metro is not like that at all as only five points separate third from last place. Columbus is (precariously) holding onto what would be one of the two Wild Card spots as they have 49 pts, but are actually tied for third w/ the Rangers. So this is potentially a huge two points for them. I think they should have no problem beating a Florida team that's lost the first two of what will end up as a four-game road trip. Losers of four of five, C-bus is a desperate side tonight.

The Blue Jackets have had two days off to stew over being shutout by Colorado, 2-0, on Thursday. It was not only the fourth loss in the last five games, but also the second time they've been shut out in the last three. Offense has been an issue here as the team ranks 27th for the year in goals per game and dead last (31st) on the power play. There are injuries, but I'd still expect them to play better. Sergei Bobrovsky is doing his part in goal w/ a .935 save percentage in home games. The Jackets are 14-7 SU at Nationwide Arena this season, averaging 35.5 shots per game. They are also 9-4 SU when playing w/ exactly two days rest this season. They're 5-0 SU when coming off three consecutive Unders.

The Panthers simply are not a very good team as they rank 24th in goals allowed, 25th in goals allowed and 27th on the power play. They are one of the also-rans in the Atlantic as they face a potentially big hill to climb to get back into playoff contention. After a five-game win streak to end 2017, Florida has lost both 2018 games, giving up nine goals in the process. On the road this season, they are being outscored by almost a full goal per game. Not good. When these teams faced off back in November, it was all Columbus (won 7-3) and that was in Miami. 8* Columbus

8* Carolina (4:25 ET): This is lone matchup between division rivals on Wild Card Weekend, thus we're bound to hear about "how hard it is to beat the same team three times in a season" (Saints won both reg season matchups and thus the division, which is why they have homefield advantage here). That's not necessarily true as this situation has seen the team that won both regular season matchups go 11-5 SU since 1990 (but only 8-7-1 ATS). However, we have not seen a three-game season sweep take place in the NFL since 2009 when the Cowboys did it to the Eagles. To me what's even harder to do is cover against the same opponent SEVEN straight times, which is what the Saints are trying to do here. Take the points. 

When New Orleans rolled into Carolina all the way back in Week 3, they were 0-2 SU/ATS on the season and little was being expected from them. Boy, how things changed in a hurry. The Saints would go onto win, 34-13 as 5.5-pt underdogs, and never looked back as they won 11 of their next 13 games. Interestingly enough, that Wk 3 matchup was the ONLY time the Saints won as an underdog all season. They'd go onto beat the Panthers here in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, 31-21, this time as six-point favorites in Week 13. How impressive was it for the Saints to score 30+ in both matchups vs. Carolina? Well, the Panthers allowed only one other 30+ pt game ALL SEASON, to the Patriots back in Week 4. For the year, Carolina allows just 20.4 PPG (same as New Orleans!) and is 7th in yards allowed. 

While New Orleans has won five straight home playoff games, Carolina has never lost in the Wild Card round, going 3-0 SU/ATS all-time. A big difference between this rubber match and the two regular season games will be the presence of Cam Newton's favorite target, TE Greg Olsen (didn't play either reg season game). While I'm not saying Carolina will win outright here, a close loss certainly seems like the strongest possibility. The Panthers were 7-1 SU in one-score games during the regular season and with regression likely to take hold, I can see them losing one here. Getting back to something I mentioned earlier, the Panthers are 0-6 ATS the L6 H2H meetings vs. the Saints, but they have won three of those straight up. Four of those six games have been decided by 5 pts or less. The Panthers were 5-2 SU and ATS as dogs this year. 8* Carolina

8* Under Panthers/Saints (4:25 ET): New Orleans went under a sort of radical transformation in 2017, all of a sudden developing a defense and running game to compliment Drew Brees. Actually, that statement somewhat underscores the transformation. The defense and running game became the identity of the team, supplanting Brees and the passing game. Led by rookie Alvin Kamara and a revitalized Mark Ingram (both made Pro Bowl), the Saints were #1 in the league in yards per carry at 4.7. The defense allowed just 20.4 PPG, same as the more heralded Carolina unit. Brees attempted 137 fewer passes than last season. This is a much different Saints team than the last time they made the playoffs (2014).

Carolina may have allowed the same number of points per game as New Orleans, but they allowed significantly fewer yards (7th best overall) and held opponents to 32 YPG below season averages (4th best). They were #3 against the run (88.1 YPG allowed), but the Saints had their way w/ them in the two regular season matchups, going for 149 and 148 yards, both wins. But while the Panthers also allowed 30+ points in both games, they allowed only one other 30+ pt game (Patriots) all season. How impressive were the Saints' two rushing performances against the Panthers in the regular season? In 13 of their other 14 games, Carolina did not allow more than 109 rushing yards. They allowed 85 yds or less 10 times.

Carolina's offense averaged only 22.7 points per game and ranked only 19th in yards per game. They scored only 10 points in the regular season finale at Atlanta. In two games vs. New Orleans, they scored 21 and 13 points. So if the Panthers are to win on Wild Card weekend, it will likely be on the back of the defense. Speaking of defense, the Saints allowed fewer than 20 pts in over half of their regular season games. While I realize these teams have posted the highest combined scoring average of any division rivals the past few seasons, those were different-type teams, especially on the Saints side. Two years ago, the Panthers were the top scoring offense in the league en route to a Super Bowl appearance. That's certainly not the case anymore. In three indoor games this year, Carolina averaged only 19.3 points per game. 8* Under Panthers/Saints

10* Under Blues/Capitals (3:05 ET): Two teams that have spent substantial time in first place of their respective divisions face off Sunday afternoon in what should be an excellent affair. Right now, St. Louis is NOT on top in the Central, but they're only one point back of Winnipeg (tied w/ Nashville). The Central is tougher than the Metro, though like it's Western Conference counterpart, the latter is likely to send five teams to the postseason. The Caps lead w/ 53 points, a number that would ironically have them in FOURTH in the Central (one point back of St. Louis). I see no read on the money line here, but the total has me intrigued as we have a well-rested team that's been scoring plenty of late (Washington) taking on a team that gave up a ton of goals last night (St. Louis). I like the Under for reasons I'll get into further below.

The Blues lost in Philly last night, surrendering six goals on 39 shots. They lost 6-3, an odd score for a club that had previously stayed Under in 12 of 13 games. The Blues still rank 4th in the league in goals per game, so them giving up two in each period last night was definitely a rare sight. Note that the final goal allowed was a meaningless empty netter. With Jake Allen not playing well last night, expect Carter Hutton to get the start between the pipes here. Hutton may be the team's better option in goal anyway as he has a .947 save percentage in 14 games, 11 of those being starts. The Under is 10-1 in those 11 starts. St. Louis ranks only 17th in goals per game and is 28th on the power play (0 for its last 18), so offensively I don't perceive them as a real "threat" here. 

Washington has not played since Tuesday's 5-4 win over Carolina. It was their third consecutive win and during that streak they've scored a total of 14 goals. However, note they'd been shutout in B2B games before that! Goalie Braden Holtby has had the Blues' number in his career as he's gone 5-0 against them w/ a .937 save percentage and 1.80 goals against average. He'll have top defenseman Matt Niskanen (missed last game) back in front of him as well. Each of the Caps' last three games have gone Over, but don't look for this one to as they are 2-0 Under this season coming off three straight Overs. There's always the chance the skaters could be rusty as well. 10* Under Blues/Capitals

10* Jacksonville (1:05 ET): What a story. The Buffalo Bills have ended what was professional sports' longest postseason drought, which embarrassingly dated all the way back to 1999. In a bit of irony, the last time the Bills made the playoffs saw the Titans, Rams and Jaguars all in the field, same as this year! That '99 season (w/ Doug Flutie as the QB!) ended w/ the now infamous "Music City Miracle" in Tennessee. I'm not sure exactly how this one will end, but I'm confident that the time and place will be this Sunday and Jacksonville. Not to ruin a nice story, but the Bills are pretty easily the worst team in the playoff field, if not one of the weaker playoff teams in recent memory. They were outscored during the regular season by 57 pts, yet got in over more qualified teams - Baltimore and Los Angeles - due to a convoluted tiebreaker that only came about when the Ravens shockingly allowed Andy Dalton and Cincinnati to drive the ball down the field and beat them. I'm laying the pts in this Wild Card matchup.

Jacksonville comes into the playoffs off B2B losses, but do not let that erase what was a very impressive regular season. I was certainly a little disappointed to see them lose 15-10 at Tennessee last week (played all starters) and the week before, they gave up a season-high 44 pts to Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers. But over the course of 16 games, only the Patriots and Eagles outscored their opponents by larger margin. The Jags' defense, particularly against the pass, underwent a radical transformation this season. They allow only 169.9 YPG through the air (easily #1), had 55 sacks (#2) and allowed the second fewest points per game (16.8) overall. Facing a Buffalo offense w/ Tyrod Taylor at QB and possibly no RB LeSean McCoy, I look for the Jags to turn in a dominant defensive performance in this one.

Buffalo's offense averages only 18.9 PPG, easily the fewest among playoff entrants. On the road, that number dips even further, down to 17.6. Their strength is running the ball (126 YPG), but w/o McCoy, they are going to be in a lot of trouble. Taylor, left for dead by this organization midseason, averages only 169.5 YPG passing. This is a battle of the league's second worst passing offense against the top passing defense, which is obviously a complete mismatch. Jacksonville also comes in sporting a +10 turnover margin (was higher earlier in the season) and is #2 in the league in takeaways. Buffalo, admittedly, only gave the ball away 16x. Still though, with or w/o McCoy (particularly w/o him!), I see the Bills' offense struggling in this one. There's another mismatch too, this one w/ the Jags' offense going against the Bills' defense. The former led the league in rushing offense while the latter was 30th at stopping the run. For all the talk about Buffalo's "Cinderella Story," let's not forget that this is Jacksonville's 1st playoff appearance since '07 and tickets went very fast for this home game. 10* Jacksonville

10* Under Falcons/Rams (8:00 ET): The Wild Card round in the NFC half of the draw seems far more compelling than its AFC counterpart. Here, he we have the defending NFC Champs (who blew a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl, you may have heard) against this year's big upstart. Atlanta led the league in yards per play (6.7) as well as most other key offensive categories last season, but while still effective on that side of the ball, dropped across the board this season. Thus, a team that was 16-2-1 Over last year went 11-5 Under this regular season. The Under has cashed in their last five games. Therefore, something is going to have to give Saturday night in LA as the Rams head into the playoffs on a five-game Over run!

The Rams replaced the Falcons as the league's highest scoring team this year, scoring 125 more points over the course of the 16-game season. Their PPG average would have been even better had they not elected to rest starters LW vs. San Francisco (had NFC West wrapped up). Admittedly, even the most optimistic Rams fan did not see this season coming. The transformation of QB Jared Goff from year one to two was borderline miraculous and 1st year HC Sean McVay deserves a ton of credit. A resurgent Todd Gurley helps too. But I'm counting on a rusty Rams offense here due to a combination of the regulars not playing last week and the playoff stage being new to them. Let us not forget a game against Minnesota earlier this year when this group was held to just 7 pts (scored on opening drive). 

Dan Quinn, now in his third year as Falcons' HC, was ironically brought into repair the defense. Last year's team (as mentioned above) was carried by Matt Ryan and the offense, but any 2017 decline was somewhat offset by an excellent defense that allowed only 19.7 points per game. No opponent scored more than 23 against them in the L6 weeks and only one (Seattle) did so over the L11 weeks! Of course, the Rams have an impressive D too, coordinated by one of the best ever, Wade Phillips. Coming into the year, that side of the ball was thought to be the strength of the team and rather quietly they allowed only 20.6 PPG. They are also 4th in sacks w/ 48. I believe they can handle an Atlanta offense whose production almost always declines outdoors. The Falcons haven't scored 30 pts in any of the L5 games. I doubt they would here. Finally, let's not discount the impact of the Rams not having ace kicker Greg Zuerlein.  10* Under Falcons/Rams

8* Boston (7:05 ET): As I discussed elsewhere today (see *10* Total Power), the Bruins have moved into a second place tie w/ Toronto in the Atlantic Division. That Original Six pairing seems destined to meet in the 1st round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. But first, Boston must continue its recent strong stretch of play here at home tonight vs. Carolina. This is a battle of the teams that have owned/currently own the best shot differentials in the league over the last two seasons. Boston had that distinction last season. Ironically, it didn't help much as they were ousted in the first round of the playoffs by Ottawa. Carolina is a league-best +5.4 shots per game compared to its opponents this year, yet only resides in fifth in the Metro, holding onto what would be the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. That shots per game metric remains something I strongly believe in, but I'm going w/ the red-hot Bruins at home tonight. 

Not only has Boston won seven of its last eight, but they have been dominant in doing so. They did lose 4-3 to Washington back on December 30th, but that's their only loss over the L3 weeks. They come off B2B road wins, over Ottawa and the Islanders, each game scoring five times. Impressive as that scoring output may be, it's been the other end of the ice where the B's have been even better of late. In each of the last six wins, they've allowed 1 or 0 goals. Overall, they've outscored opponents 33-10 the L8 games and remember half of those goals allowed came in the loss to the Caps. They are a perfect 3-0 this season after playing their previous three games all on the road.

Carolina has also been playing well of late w/ wins in 8 of their last 11. When they win, more often than not they too do a good job of slamming the lid shut on opposing offenses. But they did allow EIGHT goals in a loss to Toronto during this stretch and five more in a recent loss to Washington. A big key here is Boston's scheduled game vs. Florida on Thursday was postponed due to the inclement weather here. That means Tuukka Rask is more than likely to be between the pipes tonight. He brings in a ridiculous 11-0-1 record and .956 save percentage his L12 starts and he's only getting stingier (.972 L4 starts). He is 7-3-3 all-time vs. the 'Canes w/ a 1.89 goals against average and .939 save percentage. 8* Boston

10* Over Canucks/Maple Leafs (7:05 ET): As you can tell from the money line, oddsmakers aren't expecting a competitive game here. Toronto, no matter what the points may say, has been the clear #2 team in the Eastern Conference this year (behind Tampa Bay). Vancouver is where you'd expect, that being near the bottom of the Pacific. Even though the Maple Leafs had lost three in a row prior to beating San Jose 3-2 on Thursday, said ML is more than justifiable in this spot as Vancouver comes in having dropped six of seven. However, even if you like the Leafs in this one, the better value is on the Over considering Toronto is 5th in the league in goals per game while Vancouver is 27th in goals allowed. Both teams have top 10 power plays. Take the Over. 

As they had struggled before beating the Sharks, Toronto has fallen into a second place tie w/ Boston in the Atlantic. That's a pairing that seems destined to meet in the 1st round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The low point was being shut out, 2-0, in a bit showdown w/ Tampa Bay right after the new year. But looking back at their last six games, every other one saw the Leafs score at least three times. It took a shootout on Thursday to get by San Jose, and for a third straight game, their # of shots wasn't what you'd expect to see. The number of shots they are allowing though, especially at home (34.1 per game), is a bit concerning. Last month in Vancouver, the Leafs actually lost 2-1 despite 36 shots on goal.

I don't expect Canucks' goalie Jacob Markstrom to be as sharp tonight. After all, a big difference between this meeting and the last one w/ Toronto is the change in venue. On the road, Markstrom has a rather ugly .889 save percentage for the year. Vancouver hasn't won at the Air Canada Center since 2011. (They are 9-7-2 on the road this season, however). After being shut out, 5-0, in their last game by Anaheim, expect offense to be a priority here for the Canucks. They do score more on the road (2.9 goals per game) than they do at home (2.6) anyway. Plus, they are 7-3 Over the total this season following a game where they scored 1 or 0 goals. Also, they are 12-3 Over following a loss by two or more goals. Expect plenty of scoring in this one. 10* Over Canucks/Maple Leafs

8* Boston (6:05 ET): The Celtics withstood a tough challenge from the T'wolves Friday night, holding them to 84 points in a seven-point win and cover. Playing on the road and w/o rest here may not be an ideal combo, but consider that the opponent is lowly Brooklyn. While the Nets too beat Minnesota in their last game (Wednesday), which was their second straight win and fourth consecutive cover, the Celtics are not a good matchup for them. I say that knowing full well that the Nets covered in Beantown back on December 30th, as 9.5-pt dogs, in a 108-105 loss. But that was an atypical game for the Celtics as they allowed 59 pts in the 1st half and then also went scoreless from the field over the final 4:27. Lay a shorter number here.

That last meeting also marked the seventh straight time Boston beat Brooklyn. They did so despite some of the factors listed above, plus they were only 16 of 25 from the free throw line. It was - easily - the Celtics' worst defensive showing in the last five games and also only one of four times in the L11 games that they surrendered more than 100 pts. They come into tonight ranked #1 in defensive efficiency and PPG allowed (97.9) after holding B2B opponents below 90 pts. Both of those opponents - Cleveland and Minnesota - came in ranked in the top five in OFFENSIVE efficiency, mind you! Brooklyn is tied for only 18th in that department as they may average 106.9 PPG for the season, but do so thanks to a high number of possessions per game. If and when Boston limits the number of possessions and turns this into a halfcourt game, it will be a frustrating affair for the Nets. That's the big edge the Celtics have here.

Brooklyn's B2B wins have been by a total of three points. Both were at home, against Orlando and Minnesota. Before that, they'd lost 8 of 10. They have won three in a row at home, but have not won three in a row overall (what they're gunning for here) at any point this season. In fact, it's just the third time they've won consecutive times. The last time (early December) saw them lose their next game by double digits, here at home. Furthermore, only one time all of last season (towards the end of the year) did the Nets win three straight times. Boston has won five straight and is holding opponents to 93.2 PPG on 37.5% shooting. One final point to make here centers around three-point shooting. Boston beat Minnesota last night despite shooting a season-worst 6 for 36 from behind the arc. They'll obviously improve upon that number here. Meanwhile, Brooklyn needed to hold Minnesota to 1 of 11 from three-point range to prevail by one point on Wednesday. Their three-point defense is bound to regress. 8* Boston

8* North Carolina (1:00 ET): In all due respect to the Big XII matchup between WVU and Oklahoma later in the day, the standout game on Saturday's slate takes place in the ACC. Both Virginia and North Carolina are probably better than their current rankings, #8 and #12 respectively, and today we'll find out who is better overall (albeit not necessarily permanently). This is a rivalry dominated by the home team recently w/ four straight wins and seven of the last nine. But North Carolina is likely the more motivated side here after losing at Florida State Wednesday (by a single point!) and thus, they'll be the proverbial "tough out" plus the points. I'm taking the underdog here.

Now, I must concede that Virginia is a very good basketball team. How good? Well, at the defensive end, they are allowing just 52.7 points per game. That's the fewest in the country right now and perhaps more impressive is the fact the Hoos have held every opponent thus far to either its lowest or second lowest point total of the season! They allow 6.2 PPG fewer than the #2 team defensively (Miami). They also don't turn the ball over much, doing so just 9x per game, fewest in the country. But Saturday afternoon will certainly be their toughest test to date as UNC comes in averaging an impressive 84.9 points per game. Off their previous two losses, the Tar Heels have won by double digits the next time out, each time scoring 86 pts. 

It's rare that UNC loses B2B games. It didn't happen at all last season en route to them cutting down the nets in April. This team may not be as good as that one, but remember they don't even need to necessarily win straight up here. Prior to routing Va Tech in Blacksburg earlier in the week (1st win there in four years), Virginia was lucky to win its ACC opener (here in Charlottesville) as they escaped w/ a one-point win over Boston College. Getting back to North Carolina, they are 35-17-2 ATS their L54 games following a SU loss. That's good enough for me as you have to figure they've been favored in almost all of those contests. There's some real nice value here taking them plus the points. 8* North Carolina

8* Memphis (9:35 ET): This is a rare TV showcase (ESPN) for the Grizzlies, so I expect them to be up for it. They host a Washington team who is well-known to either play up - or down - to its level of opponent. Case in point, the Wizards have won three in a row, one of those games against Houston. (All three were also at home.) But they've also suffered recent losses - by double digits - to Atlanta and Brooklyn. Those were two of their last three road games. The Wiz have a losing road record this year (9-10 SU) while being outscored as well. I like that this number has been bet up in the A.M. and I'll take advantage by grabbing the points.

For Memphis, this is their 1st home game since before Christmas! They just wrapped up a five-game West Coast trip w/ a 113-105 loss at the Clippers. They at least managed to beat both the Lakers and Kings on the trip and only lost to Phoenix by two. When they met Washington earlier in the season (in D.C.), they lost by just six and that was as 7.5-pt favorites. Not sure why the line would be so high for the rematch. Memphs is also averaging an impressive 111.3 points over its L6 games.

Washington will have John Wall in the lineup tonight (and tomorrow). Usually, HC Scott Brooks has been resting Wall in the front end of a back to back. But with the team being so inconsistent, he's "changing it up" a bit. I reckon that Wall's presence is what has influenced this line so much. The Wizards are only 11-10 SU against teams w/ losing records and 8-13 ATS in those same games. Those losses I mentioned earlier - to Brooklyn and Atlanta - were by a combined 49 points! 8* Memphis

10* Dallas (8:35 ET): Winners of five in a row ATS (4-1 straight up), the Mavs face an ideal opponent tonight in the Bulls. Dallas has seen its offensive efficiency rise pretty dramatically over the last month or so while Chicago still languishes (ranked 29th) in that department. I still feel that the Bulls are being overvalued due to that somewhat shocking seven-game win streak in December. They're 12-3 ATS the L15 games, but let's not forget just how poorly they played over the first two months of the season. Sure enough, they've begun to regress again w/ three consecutive losses, the latest coming at home to Toronto (Wednesday) by a score of 124-115. They're just 4-15 SU on the road, getting outscored by almost 10 PPG and have gone just 1-13 SU, 2-9-3 ATS against the Western Conference. Lay the points here. 

Dallas also had a very rough start to the season, but despite their 13-26 SU overall record, they're still only being outscored by 2.4 points per game. That's a far better YTD point differential than Chicago, who is -5.6 points per game. In fact, only two teams in the league can lay claim to having a worse point differential than the Bulls, those being Phoenix and Sacramento. Per 100 possessions, the Bulls are being outscored by 6.5 points, tied for second worst in the league. Dallas isn't favored too often (this will be just the 10th time this season), but it's a good spot as they have outscored their opponents at home, largely due to the fact they hold opponents to 43.9% shooting here. Also, they are a perfect 3-0 ATS after scoring 115+ pts the last game.

Alas, 122 pts was not enough for the Mavs on Wednesday as they went up against Golden State, but only lost by three. They covered as 8.5-pt dogs. Prior to the loss, they'd won four in a row. Certainly, losing to the Warriors is no crime, especially if its by only three points. Steph Curry made a three-pointer in the closing seconds to decide the game. As for the Bulls, while their offense still languishes, the defense has now surrendered 114 or more points in three straight games. Again, those have all been losses. I liked how Dallas had seven players score in double figures (2nd time in 3 games!) against the Dubs and that they shot 19 of 43 from three-point range. 10* Dallas

10* Chicago (8:35 ET): If, before the season, I had predicted that the expansion team in Vegas would have more points than perennial power Chicago on January 5th, you likely would have had me committed. I also would have been correct. Now, I did not make that projection (nor did anyone else) and am still skeptical of how long the Golden Knights can keep this up. Yes, the so-called "Vegas Flu" seems to have infected their opponents upon visitation of Sin City, but when on the road themselves, the Knights are a far different (and less effective) club. Just last night, they lost in St. Louis (2-1), a result which snapped an eight-game win streak. Now, w/o rest, they must visit one of the toughest venues in the league, the "Madhouse on Madison," in Chicago. 

Perhaps more shocking than Vegas being in first place in the Pacific is Chicago being in last in the Central. The Central Division has clearly emerged as the toughest in the sport w/ every team posting a positive goal differential and owning a winning record in regulation. The Blackhawks have played the fewest games (39) so far and only five points separate them from fourth place. Just three points separate them from the Wild Card. Two nights ago, the 'Hawks picked up a big two points in Madison Square Garden, beating the Rangers 5-2. It was a three-goal third period that won it for them. Also, the emergence of goalie Jeff Glass remains a key story in the Windy City. Filling in for the injured Corey Crawford, Glass (a rookie) made 23 more saves Weds night and now has a .917 save percentage in three starts. 

I mentioned earlier that Vegas isn't the same team on the road that they are at home. Look no further than the records for proof of that. They've gone 17-2-1 in Sin City, but only 10-8-1 on the road. Meanwhile, I'm really surprised that the Blackhawks are only 10-5-2 on home ice this year. They are outscoring visiting teams by over a full goal per game here while averaging 36.8 shots per game (a very high number). While Glass has been a savior between the pipes, I still can't figure out how Vegas has navigated its goaltending situation as five different netminders have seen ice time this season. Marc-Andre Fleury is back and has been hot, but faced 39 shots last night and thus may not start here. 10* Chicago

10* Northeastern (7:00 ET): Off an outright loss as a home favorite earlier in the week, I expect the Huskies to be highly motivated for this Friday night home date. On Tuesday, they lost to Hofstra, 71-70 as 5.5-pt chalk. That snapped a five-game home winning streak and was an extremely disappointing result given that N'eastern led early on by double digits. In the second half, no more than three points separated the two teams over the final 10 minutes. In a contest determined by the slightest margin possible, the keys were Hofstra shooting 49 to 45.5 percent from the floor, outscoring N'eastern 36-24 in the paint and four more free throws made. Tonight they face an Elon team in the exact opposite situation, that being off a SU win as a (slight) dog at home. I'll lay the points. 

Elon got me their last time out, beating Towson 75-72 as a 1.5-pt dog. Again, that game mirrored Northeastern's last game, only w/ the opposite result for the team in question. The Phoenix trailed virtually the entire first half and was still down six w/ just over seven minutes to go in the game. Like the N'eastern-Hofstra game, Elon and Towson were never separated by more than five pts after that. The Phoenix did not take the lead for good until the final minutes. They've now won three in a row and started 2-0 in CAA play, but both conference games were at home. Speaking of close games, these teams played a pair last season, each winning by 2 pts or less on the other's home floor. They were very different games. Elon won at N'eastern 51-49 and then the rematch went the Huskies way, 105-104, after two overtimes. 

Speaking of overtimes, Elon has been a very lucky team so far this season, winning three different OT games including one double OT game and one triple OT game! Four of their five losses have been by nine points or greater, three of those coming by 16 pts or more. All five losses were also on the road. As for Northeastern, I simply can't see them dropping B2B home games. The Huskies are allowing just 63 PPG at home this year while limited teams to 26% shooting from behind the arc. I'm banking on their defense showing up in a major way here and avenging what happened earlier in the week. Elon is just 1-5 ATS away from home this year. 10* Northeastern

10* Over Thunder/Clippers (10:35 ET): Neither of these teams got off to the start they were hoping for this season, but as we've seen recently - from both - they have the talent to turn things around in a hurry. It took OKC less time as they've climbed to fifth in the Western Conference after initially struggling to integrate their "Big 3" of Westbrook, George and Anthony. Poor play in "clutch" situations late in games, particularly on the defensive end, also hurt. But they are a solid fourth in efficiency. The Clippers have had to overcome losing Chris Paul to the Rockets and Blake Griffin to injury, but Griffin is back and they've now won four straight. I expect a good, high-scoring game here. Take the Over.

This is the second game of a back to back for the Thunder, both TV games. Anyone who watched on ESPN last night saw a team that had no issues scoring as they dropped 133 pts on what appeared to be a disinterested Lakers team. Now, I don't think for a second they'll score that many tonight. But that won't be neccessary either. Three of the Thunder's previous four games have gone Over by double digits. They've shot the ball quite well recently, 52.4% to be exact the L5 games, and averaged 115.4 PPG. Westbrook, Anthony and George all scored 20+ points last night. This isn't a normal back to back as they're playing in the same venue two nights in a row. More than two months into the season, I like the way the three of them have started to play together. 

The Clippers have won six of seven, scoring 106 or more in every game. Four of the last five games have gone Over w/ them averaging 114.8 PPG (shooting 50.9%) and they average 109.0 PPG at home for the season. They have a better bench than in recent years, primarily all due to Lou Williams, who has as many 30+ pt games off the bench this season as all other reserves in the league. Griffin has scored 21+ pts in all three games since his return from injury. When these teams played back in November, it was a 120-111 final (in favor of OKC). Another key is the Clips give up 105.7 PPG. 10* Over Thunder/Clippers

10* Wichita State (7:00 ET): This season has seen Wichita State make the "move up" from the Missouri Valley, a conference which they dominated seemingly for forever, to the American. The expectation is that it will the Shockers competing w/ Cincinnati for supremacy here. Sure enough, those are the only two AAC teams ranked, currently. Wichita State won its first league game on Saturday, 72-62 over UConn, but failed to cover (barely) as 10.5-pt favorites. It was the fourth consecutive game where they did not cover. For tonight, the number is more manageable (1st time not favored by DD since SU loss to Oklahoma), but the task more difficult as they host 12-2 Houston. The Cougars are off to a 2-0 SU start in AAC play. 

Houston's two losses this year are by a combined seven points, but to Drexel and LSU, games in which they were favored. They've only been an underdog once and that game happens to be their best performance of the season, a stunning 91-65 beatdown of Arkansas. But that was at home. The Cougars were a busy team prior to the New Year, playing twice in three days and beating USF and Temple. However, those two wins did not come w/o some attrition as starting forward Breaon Brady (scored 21 pts vs. Temple) sustained an ankle injury. He may not play tonight. Going into Charles Koch Arena, one definitely wants to be at full strength. That's because Wichita State is 65-1 straight up here the last five seasons!

Wichita State will certainly be Houston's toughest opponent to date. While the Shockers didn't play particularly well last month against Oklahoma, the Sooners are also a tougher opponent against Houston. WSU's only other loss this year was to Notre Dame (who was ranked #13 at the time) in Maui and they blew a double-digit halftime lead in that one. The key to the Shockers' success has been rebound margin as they rank #4 in the country in that department at +11.6 per game. This being their 1st AAC home game, I expect a very motivated effort from WSU.  Lay the points. 10* Wichita State

8* Dallas (8:05 ET): Like I've said many times before, separating the contenders from the pretenders is a pretty difficult chore right now in the NHL. Sure, we know Tampa Bay is really good and Arizona/Buffalo are really bad, but it's a real "thin line" in determining everyone else's future lot. Case in point, the Central Division where everyone is separated by just 10 points and Chicago is actually second from the bottom! Furthermore, every team in the division owns a positive scoring differential for the season! Dallas is right in the middle of it, as in fourth place, holding one of the Western Conference's two Wild Cards currently. But there are five teams within four points of them, meaning any kind of losing streak would be extremely detrimental. Off a loss (here on home ice), I'm banking on them to bounce back tonight.

Vegas is clearly THE surprise story in the NHL this season and because of that the resurgence of New Jersey has probably fallen a bit "under the radar." The Devils, who have missed the playoffs each of the last five seasons, currently sit in second in the Metro and are just two points back of the Caps. Normally, this is an inept team offensively that had to be carried by goalie Corey Schnieder. But they have shockingly jumped to 8th in goals per game this season. I remain skeptical if that can be maintained. After winning five in a row from 12.15 to 12.27 (all at home), the club has lost its last three games, one at home to Buffalo and the other two (Washington, St. Louis) out on the road. Tonight's game will be a tough chore as not only is it a third consecutive away game, but the Stars are 14-5-1 SU at American Airlines Center.

Furthermore, you have to wonder if Dallas' record on home ice should be even better. After all, they are outscoring visitors by a pretty wide margin this year (1.3 goals per game!). For the last few years, the Stars were built the exact opposite of the Devils as they were "all offense, no defense." That dichotomy didn't matter two years ago when they won the division, but could not be overcome last year when they failed to even make the playoffs. Not surprising is that they are in the middle this year and having Ben Bishop in goal helps as he has a .941 save percentage his L4 starts and .933 save percentage at home, for the season. I failed to mention earlier that the Devils have slipped to 18th in goals allowed this year and they also give up 34.5 shots per game on the road. 8* Dallas

6* Puck Line Montreal (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I'm taking the Canadiens +1.5. Tampa Bay has clearly emerged as the "team to beat" in the NHL's Eastern Conference as their 60 points and +53 goal differential are both league bests (the latter easily so). But, that being said, I feel this could be a somewhat tricky road game against a division foe. Certainly, the Habs come in "wounded" as losers of five in a row. They've scored just four goals total during the losing streak, but to be fair, they are also coming off a hellacious road trip, one of that took them to Western Canada for three games and then to the Southeast U.S. for three more. Thus, I was NOT surprised to see them struggle in their return home Tuesday night, which ended up being a 4-1 loss to San Jose. 

All five losses have been by 2+ goals while the Lightning are off B2B shutouts (both on the road). So, I get that this looks like a pretty severe mismatch. However, it is Tampa Bay's third road game in five nights and considering the two teams they just beat (Columbus, Toronto), it would only be natural to have somewhat of a "letdown" here. In fact, the Lightning are just 3-6 SU this season when coming off a division game. Their strong start to the season hasn't been w/o some good fortune as they've gone 11-5 SU in one-goal games. That's 16 out of 39 games decided by a one-goal margin. Either way, we'll take that result tonight.

Montreal would be well-served to try and get on the man advantage in this game as TB's one weakness is the penalty kill where they rank just 23rd. I also think it would be a mistake to start doubting Carey Price as he still owns a .940 save percentage against division foes this season (10 starts). He can keep the Habs in this one. It's not like the offense does a poor job of getting the puck on net, at least here at home where they average 33.6 shots per game. I look for the Habs to do no worse than a one-goal loss here, so take the +1.5. 6* Puck Line Montreal (+1.5)

8* Under UTSA/La Tech (7:30 ET): Here's a somewhat "off the radar" matchup as we travel to Conference USA where both UTSA and Louisiana Tech are looking to bounce back from losses. The latter was expected to challenge Middle Tennessee for conference supremacy this season, but has opened C-USA w/ B2B losses, albeit both taking place on the road. But it can't all be blamed on the schedule here as the Bulldogs have had lineup issues and turn the ball over too much. Jalen Harris, the team's second leading scorer, asked for and was granted a release from the program after only 11 games. Leading scorer Dequan Bracey has battled back issues, which have limited him over the L2 games, and he's also the primary culprit for all the turnovers. 

UTSA won its C-USA opener (over Rice), but then lost to North Texas by a single point on Saturday. Unlike La Tech, the Roadrunners got to play both of their first two league games at home. Not much is expected from UTSA this season as they were picked to finish in the middle of C-USA and they're simply not very good away from home. Their lone "true" road win this year came by a single point at Texas State in the second game of the season. The loss to North Texas was the Roadrunners' fourth game this season decided by four points or less and they've lost three of those. They blew a seven-point halftime lead to North Texas and missed two layups in the closing seconds. This is not a team noted for its defense as they've allowed 100 pts TWICE in regulaton this season. 

Like UTSA, La Tech can score. They average 79.7 PPG and 90.0 PPG at home. UTSA averages 85.5 PPG (still not in the top 20), but also allows 77 PPG. These teams have a history of going Over against one another w/ seven of the previous eight meetings going that way, including all four the last two seasons. But notable here is the fact the O/U line some 20 pts higher than it was for either meeting last year. Both 2017 matchups BARELY went Over as in by 2 pts and 1 pt. Five of La Tech's last six games have stayed Under and while, again, both were on the road, they are averaging just 66.5 in conference games. UTSA is also coming off its lowest scoring effort to date. 8* Under UTSA/La Tech

8* New Orleans (9:05 ET): I expect both of these teams to be in the battle for the last couple (few?) playoff spots in the Western Conference, all season long. The five teams I consider "locks" in the West to make the playoffs are: Golden State, Houston, San Antonio, Oklahoma City and Minnesota. That leaves three spots, likely to be filled by some combo of the Pelicans, Jazz, Blazers, Clippers and Nuggets (so two teams will be left out). Given the way Utah played in December, the playoffs might seem like a remote possibility. Though they did end 2017 w/ an upset of the Cavs (here at home), the Jazz have gone just 3-10 SU since December 5th to fall to 16-21 SU overall. New Orleans, despite B2B losses, sits ahead of them (currently in that coveted 8th place position). 

Both teams are well-rested coming into tonight as they've each been off for three days. The Pelicans failed to take advantage of what looked like, on paper, to be a favorable homestand to close out 2017 (favored in all three games). They lost the last two, to Dallas and New York, "thanks" to a combo of poor defense and collapsing down the stretch. It was the defense that cost them against the Mavs, a poor offensive team that the Pelicans let make 22 three-pointers and score a season-high 122 pts. Then against the Knicks, NO blew an eight-point lead w/ under three minutes to go. So they should be highly motivated, not to mention this is a revenge spot as they lost here in Salt Lake City back on 12.1 (114-108). Interestingly though, they were 3.5-pt road favorites that night. 

Utah doesn't have Rudy Gobert, which is problematic to begin with, but especially when facing a team that has Anthony Davis and Boogie Cousins on its roster. I'm not sure how the Jazz plan on stopping them. Sure, they can slow the pace down, but that will be tough against a Pelicans team that plays at the sixth fastest pace in the league. I concede the fact Utah allows only 95.5 PPG at home, but since their problems started back on 12.5, they've held only two opponents below 100 pts. The December schedule was pretty brutal for the Jazz, so I can't say I was shocked to see them struggle. But while the pointspread is somewhat negligible here, it's only the 2nd time they've been favored in the L10 games. Only twice in the L18 games have they been favored by more than two points! 8* New Orleans

8* Oklahoma State (9:00 ET): Bedlam is renewed on the basketball court tonight w/ Oklahoma hosting rival Oklahoma State in the second Big 12 game for each side. The faithful in Norman may still be "licking their wounds" after the football team's disappointing loss in the Rose Bowl Monday, but they've got a pretty good basketball team too. The Sooners come in at 11-1 SU and ranked #7 in the country. In the (very deep) Big XII, they are the second highest rated team right now according to the pollsters (ahead of Kansas!). But it wasn't easy New Year's Eve, handing TCU its first loss of the season, and OK State will come in highly motivated off a loss at home to WVU. Take the points w/ the Pokes in this one.

The Big 12 looks to be loaded this year w/ five teams currently ranked in the top 18 and three in the top 10. Personally, I have OU rated as the fourth best team in the league (ahead of TCU among those ranked). I don't think they're the 7th best team in the country, by any means. Oklahoma State is in the next tier (along w/ Texas, Baylor and Kansas State) in what is potentially shaping up to be a seven-bid league in the NCAA Tournament. Certainly, they don't want to (can't afford to?) start 0-2 in conf play. They led WVU by seven at halftime in Stillwater on Friday, but shockingly the nation's #2 free throw shooting team (80.5%!) faltered down the stretch (11 for 19 in 2H). While the Cowboys were picked to finish last in the preseason poll, clearly, they're better than that as their only three losses so far have come to Top 10 teams (WVU, A&M, Wichita State). 

Winners of nine in a row, the Sooners are clearly going to be motivated here by the double revenge they have from last year (lost to OK State both times). But three of the past four meetings between these two (including both LY) have been decided by four points or less. In other words, expect a close game tonight. OU just outlasted TCU on New Year's Eve, coming from behind to win 90-89. At one point, the Sooners trailed by as many as 13 in the second half. Having had two more days to prepare here is a big edge for the underdog. Oklahoma certainly can score, but they give up plenty of points too (79.9 PPG). Maybe that's why they're just 3-6 ATS laying points this season. 8* Oklahoma State

8* NY Rangers (8:05 ET): Neither of these two proud franchises are at where they want to be in the standings right now, especially Chicago. Certainly, the Wild Card is not what either the Rangers or Blackhawks had in mind coming into this season. But, looking at the way things stand currently, I'd say it's the Blueshirts that have the rosier outlook. First, they can lay claim to have the top goal differential (+14) in their division. They're also already in fourth place, which is better than where the 'Hawks reside in the Central. Shockingly, Chicago is in last place entering play on Wednesday as they are the ONLY team in their division (very competitive, obviously) to have a losing overall record. With the home ice advantage, I like the Rangers here.

Normally, coming off the Winter Classic, I might be a little "down" on the situation for New York. They did beat Buffalo, 3-2, on New Year's Day at Citi Field (home of MLB's Mets), but needed OT to do so. Often times, we've seen teams struggle after playing their previous game outdoors. But, situationally speaking, tonight is a much worse spot for Chicago as they are at the end of a six-game road trip that started on 12.21 and has taken them all around North America. They played their previous three games out in Western Canada (Vancouver-Edmonton-Calgary) and have just one win on the trip. Making things worse is that the L2 games have both gone into overtime. You have to wonder what this veteran team has left in the tank tonight. 

Truth be told, the Blackhawks are a pretty pedestrian team this year as they rank 13th in both goals scored and allowed and they have a terrible power play, which ranks 29th. Don't expect them to break through against a Rangers' penalty killing unit that is 5th best in the league. Furthermore, NY is 7th in both goals scored and allowed. They have the edge in goal, a big one, w/ Henrik Lundqvist (.935 save percentage L4 starts) over rookie Jeff Glass (filling in for injured Corey Crawford). That's a big deal when you consider how many shots Chicago has been allowing recently (84 L2 games!) and how many New York has been putting on net (35.6 per L5 games). By the time, the 'Hawks arrive at MSG, they will have traveled 8,000+ miles in the L2 weeks. 8* NY Rangers

10* Over Rockets/Magic (7:05 ET): This would appear to be a complete mismatch on paper as well as a "get well" spot for the Rockets, who have failed to cover six straight times. But they did snap a season-high five-game (SU) losing streak on New Year's Eve, beating the Lakers 148-142 in double overtime. Now, the "elephant in the room" here is that James Harden is out (indefinitely) due to a hamstring injury. It will be interesting to see how Houston performs w/o him. My guess is they'll be fine against bottom-feeders like the Magic. Now, this game isn't likely to be as high-scoring as the Rockets' last one, but it doesn't have to be, plus take note that even w/o OT, that last game was tied 122-122 at the end of regulation. Take the Over here.

Prior to the final 10 days of 2017, Houston had clearly emerged as the top challenger to Golden State's throne. Consider that their five consecutive losses were more than they experienced in their first 29 games! Led by Harden, they are ahead of Golden State in offensive efficiency this season and #1 overall. But, unlike last year (when they would have fallen completely off w/o Harden), now they have Chris Paul to lean on. An Orlando team that is just dreadful defensively (allows 110.0 PPG) should be all too welcoming for the undermanned Rockets here. Both Magic home games that have had a total of 220+ this season went Over. 

Houston's defense has been much improved this season and Harden certainly isn't going to be as missed on that end of the floor. That being said, I still anticipate Orlando scoring plenty tonight. During the course of their six-game ATS losing streak, the Rockets have allowed 112 or more points five times. They've allowed 121+ in regulation FOUR times. So, we've already begun to see some "slippage" defensively here. A key though is I expect Houston to shoot better tonight than they have recently (43.3% L5 games). Harden went down in the 4Q vs. the Lakers and after he left Paul scored 15 of his 28 pts. Orlando has been just terrible of late (4-26 SU L30 games!), but they too will shoot better tonight than they did in the last game. They were just 36.5% overall from the field in a 98-95 loss to Brooklyn on Monday, including 6 of 31 from three-point range. 10* Over Rockets/Magic

10* Charlotte (10:05 ET): Tonight marks a sort of "crossroads" for me as it pertains to the Hornets. In the interest of full disclosure, I tabbed this team as one of my most improved for 2017-18, presupposing they'd experience a lot better luck - whether you're talking injuries or record in close games. Instead, they've gotten neither. They currently sit 10 games below .500, have been w/o Nic Batun (since returned) and Cody Zeller (out indefinitely) for significant time, and seen their record in games decided by three points or less dip to an almost unfathomable 0-13 (straight up) since the start of last season! Even their head coach Steve Clifford has not been immune as he has been M.I.A. for three weeks due to an undisclosed health issue. 

But I'm willing to take a stab (one last one?) tonight as they visit the team I rate as the worst in the entire league, that being Sacramento. Sure, there is a handful of teams w/ worse records than the Kings. But in my estimation, no team has played worse. They have - by a fairly wide margin - the worst per game point differential in the league at -8.7. Mirroring that, they are giving up 10.3 more points per 100 possessions than they are scoring. The next worst team is only -6.4 in that department. That discrepancy is largely owed to a league worst defense that is giving up 1.1 points per possession. Offensively, the Kings are also dead last in efficiency and they average only 97.0 points per game. They won't have either their starting (rookie De'Aaron Fox) or even backup (Frank Mason) point guard for tonight's game as both are out w/ injuries. Yikes! 

The last two games have seen Sacramento get outscored by 28 pts. That may not mean surprise you, but consider the opponents were Memphis and Phoenix. So there is hope for a team like Charlotte here. Against the Grizzlies, the Kings trailed by as many as 30 in the second half and that that was here at home! Whereas the Kings are simply a bad team, the Hornets are a decent one, hurt by poor luck. I know that they're only 3-13 SU on the road this season, so it seems odd to lay points, but the line actually isn't high enough. Expect Kemba Walker to shoot better than he has recently, in this game. 10* Charlotte

8* Phoenix (9:05 ET): Two bottom-feeders face off Tuesday in the desert w/ the Suns hosting the Hawks. Both teams entered 2017-18 "knowing their lot" and that it would be a long season. Neither has "disappointed" in that regard. Phoenix is 14-24 SU and really could be a lot lower in the Western Conference standings as three of the four teams w/ worse records have better YTD point differentials. The Hawks are at the bottom of the Eastern Conference (10-26 SU), yet off a rare SU win. That latter component makes them strong fade material in my book as bad teams rarely post B2B wins, especially on the road. The Suns are 28-12 ATS the L40 H2H meetings, including a perfect 4-0 ATS the L2 seasons. Lay the short number. 

For Atlanta, this game marks the start of a five-game trip out West. They beat Portland at home Saturday, 104-89 as 2-pt home dogs. In addition to much better than usual defense, the Hawks used a second-half scoring "explosion" to down the Blazers. They scored 32 points in the 4Q alone and the difference in the last 12 minutes was almost the difference in the game. They also benefited from shooting 14 of 30 from three-point range while Portland was only 7 of 25. The Hawks are middle of the road offensively, but it's the other end where they often struggle. They'll come into this game ranked 27th in defensive efficiency. (Phoenix is one of three teams rated lower). The 89 pts allowed to Portland were the fewest by any Hawks opponent since Sacramento scored only 80 back on November 15th. The Hawks promptly lost the next game, by 11, to Boston.

On the road, things have not gone well for Atlanta either. They're just 3-15 straight up and being outscored by six points per game. Their last road win came back on December 2nd at Brooklyn. I'm actually a little shocked to see the Hawks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall. But, as you might have guessed, that's a byproduct of a lot of large spreads. With that not being the case here, it's good to think "the other way," and here w/ Phoenix, they'll be looking to bounce back from a double digit loss here at home on New Year's Eve to Philadelphia. Prior to that, they'd won 5 of 7. Against teams w/ losing records, the Suns do have a winning SU record, something the Hawks cannot say about themselves. The Suns' home record would be better if not for the games leading scorer Devin Booker missed. 8* Phoenix

8* Over Sharks/Canadiens (7:35 ET): At first glance, a high-scoring game is probably not what you'd expect here. After all, both the Sharks and Habs just got shut out in their last games. Montreal has totaled only three goals during a four-game losing streak and its last five games have all stayed Under the total. San Jose has been a huge Under team this season (12-23-1 overall), largely thanks to some spectacular goaltending. But there was certainly no spectacular goaltening in their last game, a 6-0 loss to Dallas. In fact, in four of their last six games, the Sharks have given up four or more goals. Take the Over in this one.

As discussed here before, Montreal has dropped off dramatically from LY's Atlantic Division winning campaign. That can be directly tied to the decline in defense, specially between the pipes w/ Carey Price. While Price was arguably the top goaltender in the league last season, he has a woeful .867 save percentage this year vs. Western Conference teams. San Jose has certainly given he and the Habs difficulty the last few seasons as the Sharks have taken the last five meetings, including a 5-2 win (out West) back in October. Price has allowed eight goals total the L2 times he has faced San Jose. On the bright side here, Montreal did get off 37 shots Saturday vs. Florida. They just couldn't find a way to beat goalie James Reimer. It was their fifth game of 30+ shots in the last six times they've hit the ice.

Aaron Dell has been the better of San Jose's two goaltenders this year, yet Martin Jones continues to start roughly two-thirds of the time. That's a mistake, obviously, in my opinion. Jones has a .914 save percentage for the year and a 2.57 goals against average. Neither is in the top 15. Meanwhile, Dell is #2 in the league in both categories. Jones is projected to start tonight, even though he was chased after two periods by Dallas on Saturday. (I'll take it!). Even if there is a late decision to go w/ Dell, this play stands. While neither side ranks higher than 26th (in the league) in goals per game, I still like the Over. 8* Over Sharks/Canadiens

8* Towson (7:00 ET): The Colonial is nowhere close to what it was in its "heyday" (w/ VCU and George Mason's Final Four runs bring the conference to nat'l prominence) and the team that has dominated the last couple seasons (UNC Wilmington) is expected to take a step back in 2018. Thus, we have ourselves yet another a wide-open race. Both teams here figure to be "players" in the CAA race, along w/ favorite (College of) Charleston. Now, that being said Towson does not come into this game playing well. They've lost three in a row, all "true" road games, including their CAA opener - at the aforementioned Charleston. Here, they play a fourth straight "true" roadie, at Elon, who won (here at home) over Drexel Saturday. 

Prior to the current three-game skid, Towson had started the year 10-1 SU. I still rank them as the 2nd best team in the CAA (after Charleston) despite the losses. Something to note is that the Tigers were actually favored at Pitt last week. Even though they lost, that's a lot of respect from the marketplace. The Tigers are quite battled-tested by this point as they've played only four home games (won them all). Despite that, and the three-game skid, they're still outscoring foes by an impressive 9.4 points per game. Usually, their defense is very stout (allowing 39.0 FG% for the year), but on Saturday, they let Charleston shoot above 51%. I don't see that happening again, especially not in B2B games.

Elon is 5-0 SU at home after a 90-75 win over Drexel as 6.5-pt favorites. Prior to that, they went to Terre Haute and upset Indiana State as six-point dogs. So the Phoenix are playing well right now? But can they summon up a third straight quality performance? I'm not convinced. They're only +1.8 PPG despite the 9-5 SU record and Saturday's offensive showing, where they scored 90 pts on 49.1% shooting, is atypical compared to what we usually see from them. We're only two weeks removed from the Phoenix losing by 16 at Canisius and three weeks from them losing by 31 at UNC Greensboro. They scored just 95 pts - total - in those two games and shot terribly. They're also just 1-4 ATS as underdogs this season. 8* Towson

10* Over Bucks/Raptors (7:35 ET): All of the chatter about the Eastern Conference tends to focus on Cleveland and Boston. Yet, by several metrics, it is Toronto that comes into 2018 as the team playing the best in the conference. Milwaukee is another team looking to "crash the party" come playoff time, and even though they've been outscored this season, they sit sixth in the East (same as last year). These two teams clash New Year's Day (why else would I be talking about them?). Though they did struggle a bit at the end of the month, the Raptors did just go 11-3 SU in December and they should play well here at home where they're 13-1 SU for the year. Milwaukee is off B2B wins, over Minnesota and Oklahoma City, the latter of which was not w/o controversy (read one!). I'm on the Over in this one as I expect both teams to have no problem scoring.

Toronto has NOT shot well recently (40.5 FG% L5 Games), but here at home this is a prolific offense. They average 114.4 PPG on 48% shooting here North of the Border. Thus, it should not be surprising that the Over is also 9-5 at the Air Canada Center. We saw how dominant they can be here on Friday, albeit against Atlanta, in a 111-98 win. The team didn't even shoot that well in the win. But this remains a top five offense in terms of efficiency and a difference between this game and last is they'll be facing a fellow top 10 offense. 

This won't be the same Bucks team that the Raptors eliminated in LY's playoffs as Milwaukee now has PG Eric Bledsoe. The Bucks went Over in 11 of 12 games (one push) in December, before staying Under in the last two. They held the T'wolves and Thunder to just 95.5 PPG, but it will be far more challenging defensively tonight. The Minnesota win required a massive comeback, one that saw them hold the T'wolves to just 12 pts in the 4th quarter. Then came the OKC game w/ the controversial ending as Giannis Antetokounmpo clearly stepped out of bounds before hitting the game winner. Had there been overtime, who knows, that would have probably been another Over for the list. The bottom line though is Milwaukee scored 38 pts in the 1Q vs. OKC and it never should have gotten to that point. The Bucks do allow 107 PPG on the road. 10* Over Bucks/Raptors 

8* Oklahoma (5:00 ET): It's not a "classic" (Big 10 vs. Pac 12) Rose Bowl matchup, but the first of two CFP semifinals could be a classic nonetheless as it's a battle of offense vs. defense here w/ Oklahoma taking on Georgia. OU was #4 in the country during the regular season in points per game while UGA is #3 in points allowed. In fact, the top three teams in the country in points allowed (Bama-Clemson-UGA) all made the CFP, leaving the Sooners as the outlier in the department. But Heisman winner Baker Mayfield (sick or not) can more than make up for that discrepancy as Oklahoma has a huge edge at the most important position (QB) in this game. Remember, Georgia's starting QB (Jacob Fromm) is a true freshman. Only one true frosh in the history of College Football (ironically, Oklahoma's Jamelle Holieway, in 1985) has led his team to a National Championship. Due to concerns over Mayfield's health (he's playing obviously!), this line has been bet up and there's now plenty of value on the Sooners.

Led by Mayfield, who meshes so well w/ coordinator turned HC Lincoln Riley, the OU offense averaged 44.9 PPG in the regular season and a FBS-high 583.3 yards per game. The offense is more than just Mayfield, however, as it is loaded at all the skill positions not to mention the offensive line is also one of the best in the country. The running back and receiver groups are both incredibly deep and TE Mark Andrews won the Mackey Award for being the best at his position. There is no doubt in my mind that OU is going to score plenty in this game. The fewest pts they scored in any game this year was 31 and they won both times they were an underdog, beating Ohio State and Oklahoma State on the road. But what about the Sooners' defense? Clearly, it will be labeled the "worst" of the four defenses in the CFP and that's fair. But it's a group that improved down the stretch, most notably holding TCU to 20 and 17 points in two matchups.

Georgia's defense, save for the loss to Auburn, is pretty sick. But it should be noted that they have not faced a passing attack anywhere close to what Oklahoma brings to the table. Generally speaking, QB play is pretty subpar in the SEC these days. I worry about Fromm and the UGA offense, even though they come in averaging almost 35 PPG. I expect the Sooners' defense to "stack the box" and dare Fromm to beat them through the air. The Georgia passing attack only averages 170 YPG and if they fall behind here, that could mean big-time trouble. It's worth mentioning that OU did open as a 1-pt favorite here, so again, I think we've gotten to a point where there's value in taking them. Oklahoma has won and covered the last three times it has taken on a SEC opponent, including bowl wins over Alabama (2013) and Auburn (last year). They averaged 40 PPG in those two bowl wins. 8* Oklahoma 

10* West Virginia (5:00 ET): This is a potentially great matchup for New Year's Day w/ two of the heavyweights from the Big 12 facing off. Both won their respective conference openers, WVU over Oklahoma State and Kansas State over Iowa State. Even more impressive is that both wins came on the road. Can Bob Huggins' Mountaineers now make it B2B road wins? Well, considering they've won their last 12 games, I'd answer in the affirmative. WVU has ascended to 7th in the latest national rankings and while they may not be quite that good, I definitely have them ahead of Kansas State, whose 11-2 SU record hasn't exactly come at the expense of many good times. It's tough winning at the "Octagon of Doom," but WVY can do it. 

In fact, they almost did it last year, losing by only four (were -3.5). Note that after that loss, they'd go on to drub K-State in Morgantown (by 19) and then beat them again in the Big 10 Tourney. Overall, they've beaten the Wildcats in seven of the previous eight head to head meetings. As per usual, "Press Virginia" is creating a lot of turnovers; 21 per game, in fact, for the season. This is a very balanced (and deep) team that ranks in the top 20 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency (per KenPom). Only three other teams in the country - Michigan St, Purdue and Kansas can also lay claim to that. Six different Mountaineers scored in double figures Saturday in Stillwater as they outscored OK State 46-33 in the 2nd half. 

Six Big XII teams currently find themselves ranked in the Top 25, but Kansas State is NOT one of them, which is somewhat telling. I don't always agree w/ the pollsters and this is one of those cases where I'm "with them" as I don't have Bruce Weber's team ranked in my top 40 despite their 11-2 SU record! Remember that they lost outright to Tulsa last month. They do hold road wins over Vandy and Iowa State, but that's about it. The win Saturday over Iowa State was KSU's first in Ames since 2011. I seriously doubt we'll see a repeat performance from junior Dean Wade, who went for a career-high 34 pts in that game. As a team, the Wildcats shot better than 55% from the floor Saturday, including 13 of 26 from three-point range (Iowa St was just 4 of 15 from 3-pt range). That also won't be duplicated. 10* West Virginia

6* Puck Line Buffalo (1:00 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I'm taking the Sabres +1.5. For the Sabres, today's game might as well be the Stanley Cup Finals. By every objective measure, they are the worst team in the Eastern Conference, so a national platorm should definitely have them "hyped up" and ready to go come New Year's Day. Will that be enough, though? Not sure, but that's where the Puck Line comes in as I definitely don't see the Rangers winning this game by more than one goal. It should be noted that Buffalo is off a win here (4-3 at New Jersey) and a one-goal loss (to the Islanders) prior to that. Meanwhile, each of the Rangers last four games have been decided by one goal margins. Take the +1.5 here.

Not sure how much it would change things, but the Sabres are tied for the most losses in OT or a shootout in the league (8). The win over the Devils Friday did come in overtime. I was impressed, however, with them rallying back from a 3-1 deficit on the road. That improves them to 2-3-2 the L7 games, so they come into the New Year at least being competitive. Seven of their last 10 goals have been decided by one goals, a margin that would work for us either way here. Overall, 17 of their 38 games this season have been decided by one goal. They've also done a pretty good job recently at getting the puck on the net. Four times in the last six games, they've finished w/ 36 or more shots. 

Remember that whatever home ice edge the Rangers would have otherwise enjoyed here is mitigated by playing outdoors at Citi Field. While they're 15-6-3 at MSG this season, they're just 5-7-2 on the road. I'm interested to see how this team performs once it starts playing more away from home. One thing we can expect is they will give up plenty of shots. So far this season, they are allowing an average of 38.5 shots per game on the road. That has to be the highest number in the entire league. They've also been allowing a high number of shots, period, of late and that's contributed to them losing three of four overall. Are the Rangers the better team here? Yes. But don't discount the fact that Buffalo has a relatively hot goaltender going today in Robin Lehner, who has a .935 save percentage his L4 starts. Just like the Sabres, 17 of the Rangers' 38 games this season have been decided by exactly one goal. 6* Puck Line Buffalo (+1.5)

8* Over Notre Dame/LSU (1:00 ET): This is one of the better non-CFP bowl games and a rematch of the 2016 Music City Bowl, won by the Fighting Irish, 31-28 as 8-pt underdogs. But that particular bowl game was played in December. Why is that significant? Well, ND has gone a horrific 0 for its last 9 (straight up) in January bowls! Prior to the start of the season, I had the Irish as one of the most improved teams in the country and they did not disappoint, racing out to an 8-1 SU start before dropping two of its last three (@ Miami and Stanford). LSU is on an opposite trajectory as they opened 3-2 SU (including home loss to Troy!), but then they closed on a 6-1 SU (only loss to Alabama) run, covering all seven games.

I've got no great read on the side here (though I give a slight lean to Notre Dame), however, the total is something I'm very interesting in. Both offenses like to run the football, but will be going up against staunch run defenses. That sounds like an Under ... but I still trust this Irish offensive line (best in the country?). Before the Miami game, Notre Dame averaged a whopping 7.0 yards per rush. I expect them to rediscover that type of ground attack here as LSU will be minus its top three linebackers! I realize QB Brandon Wimbush completed less than 50% of his pass attempts in the regular season and will be w/o two receivers and tight ends on New Year's Day (combo of suspensions and injuries). But I think the run game can carry the offense, like it did in the reg season when it averaged a healthy 35.3 points per game.

LSU's offense averaged 412.9 yards per game, which is probably more than you thought. It's not quite as lofty as Notre Dame's 454.9 YPG, but they averaged roughly the same number of yards per play (6.3 vs. 6.4). QB Etling completed nearly 60 percent of his pass attempts and it's looking like RB Darius Guice will be a go. In each of their last three games, the Tigers ran for 200+ yards and the Irish defense actually gave up 237 or more on the ground in three of the last four. They also allowed 37 or more points three times in that same stretch. The LSU offense got much better as the season went along, scoring 30+ in each of the final three games, peaking w/ a season-best 45 pts against A&M in the finale. 8* Over Notre Dame/LSU

Update: Auburn's top corner, Carlton Davis, is now out (illness) and that's huge for Central Florida and their offense! 

10* Central Florida (12:30 ET): We have seen the "Group of 5" team step up in the "New Year's Six" Bowl Game before, even winning outright the first two years of the current format w/ Boise State upsetting Arizona in the 2015 Fiesta Bowl and Houston doing the same to Florida State in the 2016 Peach Bowl. Last year, your ATS results may vary as Wisconsin beat Western Michigan 24-16, a game that fell right on/near the number. But the MAC always stinks in bowl games and this year we're back to an AAC team, UCF, who was the ONLY team in the country to finish the regular season unbeaten. Auburn, after losing the SEC Championship Game to Georgia, has to be a little disappointed w/ this bowl assignment and I'm taking the points.

UCF comes in w/ the top ranked offense in the country, averaging an astounding 49.4 points per game. That's a big reason why HC Scott Frost was hired away by Nebraska. Frost will coach this game though and the "Group of 5" teams have become used to this spot as Houston's Tom Hermann and Western Michigan's PJ Fleck were both set to depart when they coached their bowl games the L3 years. Now, UCF's conference brethren Memphis (who was #2 in FBS in scoring) was just held in check in its bowl game by Iowa State. UCF will have to deal w/ an even more stout defense (Auburn #7 in def efficiency), but as alluded to above, it will also probably be a less motivated one than what Memphis faced vs. Iowa State. It needs to be stated the the Golden Knights scored 45+ pts eight times during the regular season, including each of the last four games.

Let's point out that Auburn did lose three times this year. Now those losses were to Clemson, Georgia (both in CFP!) and LSU (who they led by 20). But still, it's not like they are infallible. All their big wins this year, most notably the Alabama one and the first Georgia game, came at Jordan-Hare. This is always a tough matchup for the Power 5 school because it's hard to get motivated to play a smaller school, especially when you're in a position like Auburn is here, that being you hoped to be in the playoff (before losing the SEC Champ Game). Note the Tigers were only 3-4-2 ATS as favorites this year, including 2-3-2 laying double digits. Now those seven games all found them favored by 15 or more pts, but still, it was also against lesser competition. RB Kamryn Pettway will not play here for the Tigers and despite missing the L5 games, he still led the SEC in rush yards per game. Auburn has lost three of its last four bowl games. 10* UCF

8* Minnesota (5:05 ET): There is some question as to who will exactly be suiting up here (on both sides!), but I believe that in the end, the T'wolves will have the stronger lineup, especially if Victor Oladipo can't go for the Pacers. Oladipo is currently listed as "doubtful" for Sunday's game due to a knee injury that has kept him out the last two games. Honestly, I'd be shocked if he played here as HC Nate McMilan has already gone on the record in saying Oladipo will likely be out. The results haven't been good w/o Oladipo, the team's leading scorer, as the Pacers have lost three in a row. Not only did they lose by double digits twice, but they lost to Dallas at home. Minnesota could be w/o Andrew Wiggins, but they're better built to sustain in his absence and they've been a hotter team of late. 

On Thursday, the T'wolves had a five-game win streak snapped in Milwaukee (lost by six). Now, that was the first game played w/o PG Jeff Teague, but that still didn't stop Minny from racing out to a 20-pt lead in the third quarter. It was their third game in four nights, so that prob helps explain why they blew the lead, contributing to a night of incredible comebacks all around the league. Despite not having Teague, the T'wolves probably still should have won that game (were outscored 27-12 in 4Q). They're better rested now (2 days off!) and it needs to be stated how this is legitimately a very good team. Minnesota has not lost B2B games since before Thanksgiving!

This is the second matchup of the year between these two teams. Indiana won the 1st, 130-107, as they shot a season-best 66.7% from the floor. Needless to say, that kind of percentage isn't going to be repeated here. Furthermore, it's the Pacers that now need to be concerned about defense as they just allowed a Chicago team (that was dead last in the league in offensive efficiency) to go 18 of 39 from three-point range on Friday. It was the Pacers' fourth consecutive ATS defeat, all of them coming to subpar teams. This will be Indiana's fourth game in six nights as well. No Oladipo means trouble for the Pacers. 8* Minnesota

10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): In a season where the line between "good" and "bad" has arguably never been thinner, the biggest disappointment (outside of Edmonton?) has to reside in the Steel City where the reigning Stanley Cup Champs currently sit second from the bottom in the Metro w/ only 41 points (and a -14 goal differential). But all hope is not lost here. The Pens are still only three points back of the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference, which is better than tonight's opponent, Detroit, who has only 35 points. The Red Wings only have 11 non-shootout wins, tied for 2nd fewest in the East (ahead of only lowly Buffalo). Pittsburgh has 17 such wins, which is respectable. I look for them to dominate here. 

I've mentioned this in the past, but I'll reiterate it again here. Detroit finished out of the playoffs LY for the first time in a quarter century, but they were actually pretty lucky to end up w/ 79 points (one ahead of Buffalo) and thus escape last place in the Atlantic. I say that because they were a somewhat preposterous 9-0 SU in shootouts. This year, they're 3-1 in shootouts. (Maybe it's about time they started losing some of those?). Here, they come in off a SO victory, 3-2 over the Rangers on Friday. That snapped a three-game losing streak, but they were outshot in the game as well. The power play is 0 for its last 12 and the team remains 26th in the league in goals per game. They're also 25th in goals allowed. 

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's decline in goal scoring is somewhat striking as this year, they're down to 20th. Usually, we find this club ranked in the top five in that department. Their power play is still ranked 3rd, mind you. The Pens have lost six of nine, including their last game, 2-1 to Carolina. While they were held to just one goal on 28 shots there, one reason I expect the Pens to start moving up the standings is that they are #1 in the league in shots per game (34.8) and #2 in shot per game differential (+4.1). All those chances are bound to start generating more goals and fortunately here, they're facing a Detroit team w/ shaky goaltending. This is a classic "get well spot." 10* Pittsburgh

8* Jacksonville (4:25 ET): Tennessee has everything (playoff berth!) to play for here while Jacksonville has nothing to play for here. The Jags have already clinched the AFC South and will host a playoff game on Wild Card Weekend as the AFC's #3 seed. That said, "stranger things" have happened in Week 17  and by all accounts, the Jags are playing their starters here. If this were a "regular week," Jacksonville would absolutely be favored here, even on the road. Their #1 scoring defense giving up 44 pts to the 49ers last week has to have left a "bad taste" in the players' mouths and I'm banking on that there's nothing they'd rather do, then knock out a division rival from playoff contention. The Titans have lost three in a row and have been outscored and outgained this season. Take the points.

This is a revenge spot for the Jags, who lost at home to the Titans, 37-16 all the way back in Week 2. It's their worst loss of the season and was the most points allowed, until last week. However, that performance is in no way indicative of the kind of season the Jags have enjoyed. They are #3 in the league in point differential (#1 among AFC teams) and outgaining foes by an impressive 86.5 YPG (they are +0.8 yards per play). As mentioned earlier, the defense was #1 in scoring going into last week (now #2) and is still #3 in yards allowed. The offense will be w/o WR Marquise Lee for a second straight game, but also gets back Allan Hurns after a six-week absence. Yes, a +13 turnover margin has been huge for this team. But they are very good and worthy of being AFC South Champs.

Tennessee, on the other hand, is very fortunate to even be in playoff contention. As mentioned earlier, they have been outscored and outgained over the course of the season. They've dropped three in a row, by only a total of 14 pts, but that was "due" as they'd previously gone 5-1 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less. This is the first time in his career that QB Marcus Mariota will even suit up for a Week 17 game. He has not been good down the stretch and the offense will also be w/o DeMarco Murray for the first time in two seasons here. On the defensive side of the ball, the Titans' top CB (Logan Ryan) may also be out. I'm counting on a Titans' gagjob here as Jacksonville is a much better team. 8* Jacksonville

10* Carolina (4:25 ET): Ok, so here's the setup for this one. If Atlanta wins, then they grab the NFC's final playoff spot. (They can still make it w/ a Seattle loss too). Carolina has already clinched a playoff spot, but in a field that is already pretty well set, the Panthers position is the most volatile. They can finish anywhere from #2 to #5 based on how the day goes. The best case scenario for them involves both Minnesota and New Orleans losing (note: both are favored) and them winning. That would result in Carolina leaping to the #2 seed, winning the NFC South and getting a 1st round bye! Minnesota plays at 1:00 ET and if they win, then that scenario is dead, but regardless, the Panthers will take the field at 4:25 ET knowing they have a chance to win the South (New Orleans also plays at 4:25 ET): As long as the Saints don't take a huge early lead (presuming the Panthers are scoreboard watching), we shouldn't worry about effort here. Take the points w/ the better team.

Carolina won the season's 1st meeting, 20-17 as three-point favorites. I felt that anything above a field goal for this rematch would mean value on the Panthers and because of the situation the Falcons are facing, the oddsmakers have obliged. Atlanta did finish w/ a slight edge in total yds in that 1st meeting, but Carolina had more first downs and ran for 200 yards. The Panthers also held a 10-pt lead for most of the 4th quarter. They've been outstanding in the underdog role all season long, going not only 5-1 ATS, but also 5-1 straight up. They've won three straight - all by a TD or less - and while they were certainly lucky to win at Tampa Bay LW, this has been the BEST team in the league at winning close this year, going 7-1 straight up in one-score games.

While Carolina ran for 200+ yards in that Week 9 matchup, Atlanta had no such success over land as their RB combo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman were held to 51 yds - total. Carolina's defense, which has been one of the best in the league this season, will be back at full strength this week as both DE Charles Johnson and LB Thomas Davis will return from suspensions. While both of these teams allow just 20.3 PPG, Carolina holds its foes to fewer yards per game. Atlanta is surprisingly only 4-3 SU/ATS at home this season while Carolina is 5-2 SU/ATS on the road. 10* Carolina

8* Under 49ers/Rams (4:25 ET): Is Jimmy Garappolo the greatest player in NFL history? In all seriousness, the Niners QB has never lost a NFL start (now 6-0) and has made San Fran look like a completely different team since coming over from New England. They were 1-10 SU when he took over and now they're 5-10 SU following wins over Chicago, Houston, Tennessee and Jacksonville (if only the 49ers played in the AFC South!). Two of those wins were very close (as in decided by 2 pts or less), but LW saw "Jimmy G" and company hang 44 pts on what was the #1 scoring defense in the NFL (Jaguars). That combined w/ the fact that the Rams are the #1 scoring offense in the league might lead you to believe Over is the correct call here. But this is Week 17 and no normal game. Take the Under.

Even though their seeding is not set (could be #3 or #4 in NFC), the Rams have decided that winning the NFC West is enough as they're guaranteed to host a Wild Card game next weekend, regardless of what happens here. 1st year HC Sean McVay (should be Coach of the Year) is resting starters, most notably QB Jared Goff, RB Todd Gurley, WR Cooper Kupp, not to mention the possibilty of two offensive lineman as well. So the offense that will take the field Sunday, led by backup QB Sean Mannion, will be MUCH different than the one that has averaged 30.9 PPG this year. Then there's the kicking game where Greg Zuerlein is injured and we saw the adverse effect that had last week vs. Tennessee (replacement Sam Ficken missed an XP and short FG). 

While the 49ers did score 44 pts LW, one of their touchdowns came from the defense and two others were set up on a short field after Jacksonville turnovers. The Niners were actually outgained in the contest. This being the season's second matchup between the teams, typically we see an Under in this situation. The first game, which might as well have been played last season as it was all the way back in Week 3, was a wild 41-39 Thursday night affair. I expect nothing of the sort here w/ the Rams playing backups. In Garoppolo's first three starts, the Niners failed to break 26 points. 8* Under 49ers/Rams 

8* Valparaiso (4:00 ET): Missouri Valley play got underway this week and in the case of Valpo, it did not go well. The Crusaders lost at Indiana State, 73-64, as one-point road favorites. But let's look at that situation, shall we? The game came at the end of a ridiculous SIX-game road swing (all "true" road games, at that), one that had taken them out to the West Coast for a couple of games prior to the Holiday break. Now, they're back at home - for the 1st time in December! I think that counteracts the fact that their opponents here, Missouri State, have been off for nine days since winning their MVC opener, 64-59 over Loyola (at home). The Bears come into this game having won 9 of 10, but I'm not ready to buy into them.

I've said this before, but the Missouri Valley is wide open this year due to the departure of Wichita State. Valpo replaced the Shockers, keeping this a 10-team league, but it is Missouri State that was labeled by many as the new favorite. Tip your cap to the Bears for holding Loyola, who was thought to have the best offense in the league coming into the season, to just 59 points. The game before that, the Bears held Wright State to only 28.1% shooting. For the season, the Bears are allowing just 38.2% shooting. Therefore, it shouldn't come as much of a shock to find that the one time this year they allowed better than 50% shooting, happens to be their last loss. That was also their last "true" road game, at Oral Roberts, who went for 73 pts on 53.1% shooting. 

Again, Valpo has got to be thrilled to be back on campus as they are a perfect 5-0 straight up here this season and are outscoring their visitors by an incredible margin of 28.0 points per game! The Crusaders can play a little defense as well as they're holding foes to just 39.0% shooting for the year. At home, that percentage dips down to 33.0% (just 24.4% from 3-pt range!) and opponents score only 54.8 PPG here. They went just 1-5 SU on that brutal road trip, but had started out 8-0 SU before that. Note too that the Crusaders are off B2B outright losses as a favorite. In addition to being a very short favorite over Indiana State on Thursday, they were laying 6.5 to UC Riverside in a 73-60 loss on 12.20. The market still respects them though, and so do I. 8* Valparaiso

8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): This is a game where nothing is on the line as both teams are eliminated from playoff contention. In the case of the 2-13 Giants, they've been out of playoff contention for some time in what has been a complete disaster of a season. Now, I had them ranked pretty high on my list of "likely disappointments" for 2017, but even at my most pessimistic, I could not have envisioned this. Already, there have been changes at head coach and GM, so clearly the organization is already thinking about next season when they'll likely be starting someone at QB not named Eli Manning. But in what could be Eli's final start at Giants Stadium, I expect the G-Men to show up. It's not like 7-8 Washington has any reason to be motivated. This will be just the third time in the last dozen years that the Redskins are a road favorite over a NFC East rival. They didn't fare too well the 2nd time, which was earlier this year in Dallas, as they were routed (38-14!) by a short-handed Cowboys team (no Elliott). I'll take the points here.    

The Giants have not won since Ben McAdoo was fired, but they did play hard in their last home game, which came against a division rival (Eagles). In that game, they actually finished w/ a nice edge in total yards (504-341). Despite him being an alleged "offensive guru," the Giants NEVER scored 30+ points under McAdoo. It was back to their old selves last week as they were shut out 23-0 in Arizona. That said, they also had the edge in total yds there, albeit just barely (293-289). One of the Cardinals' three touchdowns came from the defense late in the game and over half their total yardage came on just two drives.

The Giants are w/o two key members of their secondary (Landon Collins and Eli Apple, who ironically are feuding), but the offense showed enough life in the Philly game to give me confidence here. Washington is not favored often (only five times previously this season) and they've been decimated by injuries - on both sides of the ball. The offense's yards per play have gone WAY down this season and speaking of potentially departing QB's, Kirk Cousins may have "one foot out the door" here. The defense, which is second worst in the league at stopping the run, are w/o key players at all levels. On the road this year, the Redskins are -7.5 PPG. 8* NY Giants

8* Wisconsin (8:00 ET): The Big 10 has proven itself to be quite formidable this bowl season, topping all conference's w/ a perfect 5-0 SU record (4-1 ATS), led by Ohio State's 24-7 win over USC last night. Wisconsin is the team the Buckeyes beat in the Conference Championship and while they're prob NOT the Big 10's 2nd best team (Penn State is), the Badgers were unbeaten going into their last game and that should be respected, even though the Orange Bowl against Miami qualifies as a "true" road game. This is a line that dropped quite a bit during the week (I didn't really understand why), but has since risen back. That reminds me of the Va Tech-OK State betting pattern where I was on the favorite (who ended up covering). Lay the points here. 

Remember when "The U was back?" How long is this tired narrative going to be pushed. Like Wisconsin, Miami was undefeated late in the year. They were thinking playoff following a 41-8 demolition of Notre Dame here in Coral Gables and then the team ran its mark to 10-0 (SU) after beating Virginia 44-28 the following week. But then, the bottom dropped out. They were upset at Pitt (24-14), as 12-pt favorites, in the regular season finale. Then, Clemson absolutely hammered them in the ACC Title Game, 38-3. Now injuries played a significant role in that late season swoon, but it's not like they've gone away. TE Chris Herndon is out as is WR Ahmmon Richards. That's two of the team's top receivers right there. QB Malik Rosier was awful down the stretch, completing less than 50% of his passes the L6 games. Oh by the way, the 'Canes are also w/o RB Mark Walton. 

None of that is good news when getting set to face what is, statistically speaking, the top defense in all the land. Wisconsin gives up just 253.2 YPG (only 92.6 on the ground) and 13.2 points per game. All the focus here will probably be on Miami's turnover chain and while it's true they did force 30 turnovers over the course of the season, Wisconsin wasn't far behind w/ 26. The 'Canes live and die by TO's, but I'll trust QB Alex Hornibrook to be careful w/ the ball here. The Badgers were 5-0 SU in the reg season as a road favorite, covering the spread in four of those games. 8* Wisconsin

10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Thus far, it has not been a positive West Coast swing for the Cavs as they first dropped a game to the Warriors on X-Mas Day, then came in w/ a "Holiday Hangover," losing to the lowly Kings on Wednesday. So my view is that the reigning three-time Eastern Conference Champs will be pointing to this game as a "get well spot" and thankfully the reeling Jazz will be all too kind to oblige them. Utah has dropped six of seven, the most recent loss coming by 25 pts at Golden State. They have been as bad as any team in the league this month (2-10 SU overall since December 5th), thus I'll disregard the fact LeBron and company are a money-burning 5-22 ATS as favorites this season (that eventually has to turn around, right?). Lay the points.

Cleveland beat the Jazz earlier this month, 109-100, at home obviously. They didn't cover however (were laying -9.5), yet I'm a little surprised no real adjustment has been made by the oddsmakers for this rematch. As I stated above, Utah has not been good recently. Their last five losses have all come by double digits (14 or more), four of those coming by 20+! Now this is a much better team here at home and the recent schedule hasn't been kind w/ a plethora of road games. But there's no Rody Gobert either and that's had a real adverse effect on the team defense, which has allowed the L5 opponents to shoot 49.5% from the floor while averaging 106.5 PPG. 

Cleveland is all offense, but has been shut down dramatically the L2 games. They shot a mystifying 25% from two-point range against the Warriors and then just 43.2% overall against a Sacramento team that is awful defensively. Something I've been harping on for weeks now is that the Cavs are awful defensively themselves, but that should NOT hurt them here as Utah plays at a slow pace (bottom five in possessions per game). Before getting held under 100 pts in B2B games, Cleveland had topped the century mark in 26 consecutive games. They've made 10 or more three-pointers in 20+ consecutive games. Too much offense here from the road favorite and this is LeBron James' birthday, so he should be highly motivated. This is a small number the oddsmakers have attached, so a SU win likely = a cover. 10* Cleveland

10* Over Canadiens/Panthers (7:05 ET): This is actually a matchup of the previous two Atlantic Division champs. Suffice to say, neither Montreal nor Florida should plan on celebrating a division title in 2018. Both are languishing on the "outside looking in" when it comes to the playoff race as huge gap exists between the top three (Lightning, Leafs, Bruins) and the field this year in the Atlantic. Consider that Florida has won four in a row, yet still finds itself nine points back of third (which guarantees you a playoff berth). That winning streak has put them ahead of the Habs (by one point), who have lost three in a row. But despite the respective ways these clubs have been trending of late, I see no value in this side here. To the total we go! 

Montreal has been held to exactly one goal in each loss during the active streak. Tonight marks the end of a somewhat brutal six-game road swing, one that began in Western Canada (Vancouver-Calgary-Edmonton) and then took them to the Southeast United States (Carolina-TB-Florida). Their one win came at Calgary. Goal scoring has been a major issue all season w/ the Habs ranking 29th in scoring per game. But Carey Price, who carried this team LY, hasn't been as sharp either and that has also played a role in the decline. Price's save percentage on the road this year is just .892. Here, he'll be up against a Florida team that averages 3.6 goals per game and 35.9 shots per game at home. The Habs have allowed 10 goals the L3 games. I don't like their chances defensively in this one.

But what just might give them a chance to stay in the game (or possibly steal it!) is the fact the Panthers are also allowing 37.2 shots per game on home ice. On average, Panthers' games average the highest number of shots per game in the league (69.5) as they are dead last in the # allowed. Thus, I'm a little surprised that they have a O/U record of 18-19, but here at home, they are 12-6 Over. They've allowed two goals or fewer every time out during the current four-game run, but I'm still not sure I'd trust goaltender James Reimer, who has an .896 save percentage here at home. Overall, the Panthers are 27th in the league in goals allowed. This should be a high-scoring affair. 10* Over Canadiens/Panthers

10* Davidson (4:30 ET): Steph Curry's alma mater is off a 7th place finish in the Diamond Head Classic as they won their final game out on the island (Hawaii), thereby avoiding finishing last in the eight-team field. Now it's time to start Atlantic 10 play and the Wildcats do so here w/ a very favorable matchup against a Richmond squad that is struggling mightily. The host Spiders have dropped eight of nine, the lone win during that stretch coming by three over James Madison. Adding to the motivation, this is a double revenge spot for Davidson as they dropped both meetings LY, including one as 11-point home favorites on New Year's Eve. Though Richmond hasn't played in a week, they are off an OT loss (to Boston College) and a game that was actually delayed a day (weather) before that. I'm laying the points.

Davidson's 91-78 win over Akron on Christmas was their best offensive effort of the month, led by Kellan Grady's career-best 30 points. In retrospect, things could have gone much better for the Wildcats out in Hawaii, but they dropped two close games, one to the host. They shot only 38.1% from the field against Hawaii and that was preceded by a last-second loss to New Mexico State (by one). That loss to NMSU was particularly brutal when you consider a second half rally had Davidson in front by seven w/ 7:35 to go (trailed by eight at halftime).

Richmond is only 1-5 SU on its home court this season, largely due to the fact they are allowing visitors to shoot at a 53.3% clip here. So I'm expecting a second straight strong offensive showing from Davidson (average 79.3 PPG already) here. The Spiders are just 2-10 SU overall and getting outscored by 11.5 points per game. As I mentioned earlier, they did take their last opponent (Boston College) to overtime and that came after the game vs. Bucknell was delayed a day due to weather (5" snow). Even after the long break and this still being relatively early in the season, you have to wonder what the Spiders have left to give. Right now, they project as the weakest team in the Atlantic 10, so this is a game Davidson simply MUST win if it wants to remain remotely relevant in the conference race. 10* Davidson

10* Washington (4:00 ET): What a difference one year as makes as last year at this time, we were having a discussion over which of these two teams belonged in the College Football Playoff. Washington got the nod and was generally outclassed by Alabama, losing 24-7 as 2-TD underdogs. Penn State was "relegated" to a Rose Bowl appearance and after an impressive start to that game (led big), they lost to USC, 52-49. So both schools will be looking for a bit of atonement in this year's edition of the Fiesta Bowl. Both teams went 10-2 SU in the reg season, neither making their respective conference title game. Washington lost to Arizona State and Stanford (both on the road) while Penn State fell to Ohio State and Michigan State (also both on the road). It seems like an even matchup, but I'll take the points.

The Fiesta Bowl has been kind to Penn State in the past as they are 6-0 SU all-time in this game, including a win in the de facto 1986 Title Game (vs. Miami FL). Their two losses this year came by a combined four points and over the L2 seasons, four of their five losses have been by a field goal or less (49-10 loss at Michigan the exception). I went "against the grain" w/ this Nittany Lions team for 2017 and predicted they would disappoint, so two reg season losses did not surprise me. They are a VERY public side here, something else that doesn't surprise me, as they're the more "known" commodity. But what bettors really need to know is that Washington has one of the top run defenses in the country (just 2.6 YPG allowed) and that's the key to beating Penn State. 

In their losses to Ohio State and Michigan State, the Nittany Lions ran the ball for only 156 yds total, despite the presence of Saquon Barkley. I expect them to struggle to establish the run again here. Note that this game marks the first time all season UW has been an underdog. Over the L2 seasons, the playoff game vs. Alabama is the ONLY time Chris Petersen's team has been getting points. We have two offenses that have both scored 30+ pts ten times during the regular season, but both also allow 15.5 PPG or fewer (UW allows 14.5 PPG). Penn State's offensive line is a little suspect (74th in sack rate allowed) and I believe the Washington defense, led by Myles Gaskin, will be the difference in this one. 10* Washington

8* Memphis (12:30 ET): So, Iowa State entered bowl season tied w/ Fresno State (who ended up covering their bowl game) for the best ATS record in the country. Led by a defense which allowed just 21.0 PPG, they pulled upsets of Oklahoma and TCU along the way. So the Cyclones certainly won't be intimidated here by the high-flying offense of Memphis (47.7 PPG). However, there are several disadvantages they are facing here. Not only is Memphis' offense far superior (ISU only +21 YPG), they also have a large edge on special teams. Then there is a matter that this is the Liberty Bowl, Memphis' home stadium. The Tigers won all seven home games during the regular season, by an average of 19.3 PPG, while averaging 50.1 themselves. Memphis averaged slightly more PPG than both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, ISU's two Big 12 rivals.

I think it's definitely fair to say that Iowa State overachieved in 2017. They were only favored in four games. They won all four of those, also going 4-0 ATS. But the key was pulling three different outright upsets and going 6-2 ATS as a dog. I don't see them "sneaking up" on Memphis here. Originally picked for second to last in the 10-team Big XII, the 'Clones are looking for their first bowl win since 2009. They have not been to a bowl since 2012. Each of the previous four seasons saw them win three games or fewer. It was not a particularly strong finish to the regular season w/ them dropping three of the final four games. I just don't see the offense necessary here to keep pace with the favored Tigers. A similar call-back I have is to the Va Tech-OK State game where I sided w/ the latter (was correct). Also, I should point out that the 1st time we saw a team play its bowl at home, it was a complete blowout w/ FAU burying Akron.

The Memphis' offense was not only second nationally in points per game, it was also fourth in yards per game (548.2). Led by QB Riley Ferguson, who completed 63% of his pass attempts for 3,971 yds and 36 TDs, they are lethal. All-American WR Anthony Miller had 92 catches for 1400+ yds, 17 of them going for TD's. RB Darrell Henderson averaged a ridiculous 8.9 yards per carry w/ he and Patrick Taylor, Jr combining for over 1900 yards over land. A final key here is turnovers. Iowa State won all seven games where it was positive in TO margin and winless when it did not win that battle. They have not lost a single fumble this season, which is somewhat preposterous. However, Memphis actually has a better TO margin at +14 vs. +11. 8* Memphis

8* Washington (10:30 ET): Pac 12 play commences on Friday and this is an interesting conference to handicap. Arizona is usually the favorite here, but it is their Territorial Cup rival (Arizona State) that has taken the nation by storm as the Sun Devils are currently one of only three teams w/o a loss this year. However, it's safe to say that ASU is nowhere close to its #3 ranking in terms of true talent (I have them barely cracking the Top 25). Beyond the two Arizona teams, it's anyone's guess as right now I don't see the Pac 12 sending a ton of teams to the NCAA Tournament. USC is the presumed third-best team, but there's a gap between them and ASU and I certainly wouldn't want to be caught laying double digits w/ the Trojans in this spot. Take the points.

USC is off a successful trip to Hawaii as they won the Diamond Head Classic over the Holiday. The Championship Game of that tournament was played Christmas Day w/ the Trojans prevailing 77-72 over New Mexico State. Not that the Aggies are a bad team (they aren't), but I think it speaks volumes that USC was only a four-point favorite in that spot. They won and covered all three tourney games, but two of the wins (also Akron) were by five points or less. This team struggled after Thanksgiving, losing three straight, although that was against a pretty tough competition. But, remember, they also lost here at home to Princeton (overtime). Southern Cal was tied at the half against New Mexico State and needed a Ryan Boatwright three-pointer w/ 4.1 seconds left in the game, just to pull out the SU win. I view this as an EXCELLENT spot to fade the Trojans.

Washington actually comes in w/ the better non-conf record of the two as they are 10-3 as opposed to USC's 9-4. After suffering two early season losses (Providence, Va Tech), the Huskies have won eight of nine, including three straight. Like USC, there have been some close calls lately w/ two (Loyola Marymout, Montana) of those three straight wins coming by three points or less. This is actually Washington's first "true" road game of the season, but I'm expecting a closely contested affair as they're better rested having not played a game in the last week. They average a healthy 80.5 PPG. 8* Washington

8* Over USC/Ohio State (8:00 ET): I'd say that outside the CFP itself, this is the most anticipated bowl game. Initially, my lean is to Ohio State as the irony of the debate between them and Alabama for the 4th (and final) spot in the playoff is that I think they're - on paper - the best two teams in the country. Not making the CFP should lead to HC Urban Meyer having his Buckeyes VERY motivated on Friday night. But ... USC is not chopped liver. The Trojans were not a healthy team when they suffered their two losses during the regular season (at Wazzu and Notre Dame). If Iowa can put up 55 pts on this Buckeyes' defense, then QB Sam Darnold and company should certainly "do some damage" as well. I look for a very high-scoring (and entertaining) Cotton Bowl. Take the Over.

Ohio State's offense averaged more PPG - significantly - than did USC's. While QB J.T. Barrett is often maligned by the faithful in Columbus, he directed a group that averaged an impressive 42.5 PPG in the regular season. USC's defense is not very good at stopping the run (allowed 158 YPG) and OSU is averaging 250 YPG over land. Overall, the Buckeyes are averaging 523.6 yards per game total at 7.0 yards per play. I see them moving the ball, almost at will, in this game. The fact that USC could be down two starters on the defensive side of the ball - LB Porter Gustin and CB Jack Jones - does not bode well here. Barrett ran for 732 yards this season, a nice compliment to sensational RB J.K. Dobbins, who went for 1,364 as a freshman.

Of course, USC has a "pretty nice" QB/RB combo of their own in Darnold and Ronald Jones II. In fact, that's not only a better duo than Barrett/Dobbins, it just might be the best QB/RB combo in the entire country! USC averages 34.5 points and 490 yards per game. Other than the disaster against Notre Dame, there wasn't a single game where this Trojans offense was held under 27 pts. They did need OT to get to that benchmark vs. Texas, but the Longhorns also happen to have one of the top defenses in the country. The best performances from Ohio State's defense were all reserved for the non-bowl teams, as they gave up 38 to Penn State and 55 to Iowa. 8* Over USC/Ohio State

10* Miami (8:05 ET): Looking at the current Eastern Conference landscape and what I thought it might look like back at the start of the season, it's safe to say Miami has been one of the bigger disappointments. Now, some of that is owed to the 13-game absence of Hassan Whiteside, who returned to the lineup earlier this week. But were it not for a loss at sorry Atlanta, the Heat would be coming into this game as winners of six of seven. In Whiteside's return, they dominated a bad Orlando team on Wednesday, winning 107-89 (4th quarter scoring was mostly responsible for that MOV). They host another bad team tonight, that being Brooklyn, who has dropped seven of eight including all three on the current road trip. I'll lay the points.

Brooklyn's one win in the last two weeks came by a 35-pt margin (at home) over Washington. Other than that, they've been outscored by 88 pts in the seven losses. This team is a disaster defensively as they are allowing an East-high 110.7 PPG. Three times in the last seven games, they allowed 120 or more. This is owed to the fact they play at one of the fastest paces in the league, but like fellow also-rans (the Lakers, Phoenix and Orlando), it's not really working out for them. Nor has playing Miami as the Nets are just 1-7 SU/ATS the previous eight meetings, including a loss down in Mexico City (101-89) earlier this month.

I expect Whiteside to play more minutes here than he did vs. Orlando (18) and for the Heat to drastically slow the tempo of this game down. In terms of number of possessions, no team's games see fewer than this one, at least in the East. Whiteside being back will also dramatically help Miami's defense, which just gave up only 89 pts to an Orlando team that (like I mentioned earlier) likes to place "fast," just like the Nets. D'Angelo Russell remains out for the Nets, by the way. There's just "something" about Friday nights for the Heat as they're a perfect 7-0 ATS on this day this season. 10* Miami 

10* Under Rangers/Red Wings (7:35 ET): The Rangers are clearly the better of the two teams here in this "Original Six" matchup, which is why they're favored on the road. Coming into Friday, the Blueshirts occupy one of the two Wild Card spots in the Eastern Conference (4th in the Metro) while Detroit is on the "outside looking in" when it comes to the playoff picture as they've dropped three straight, but all those losses took place on the road. Perhaps a return to the Motor City could do them some good, but I'm looking at a team that's scored only one goal in two straight games (26th overall in goals per game) and not seeing much room for optimism. But at least Jimmy Howard will be in goal (he's much better than Petr Mrazek), thus Under is the play here.

We need not worry about the Rangers' goaltending sitution either as they have Henrik Lundqvist and Ondrej Pavalec, both of whome have save percentages north of .920 this year. Both have also been hot of late, combining to stop 180 of 190 shots faced in the L5 games (mostly Lundqvist). It will more than likely be Lundqvist starting between the pipes tonight and that's a good thing considering his career save percentage (.938) and goals against average (1.90) against the Red Wings are his highest such marks against any opponent! He's shut the Red Wings out four times in 24 career starts against them.

At the same time though, the Rangers probably should be concerned about their offense. Not only did they just play a game vs. Washington that was a scoreless tie at the end of regulation (won 1-0 in OT), but they'll be w/o forward Chris Kreider for the foreseeable future as he deals w/ a blood clot in his arm. Kreider has 11 goals and 22 points in 37 games played this season. I can't really trust the Rangers here considering they are 0-5 SU this season, on the road, when the total is 5.5. But Detroit is very weak offensively in its own right and 0 for its last 7 on the power play. Four of the Rangers' last five games have stayed Under while five of the Red Wings' last seven have done the same. These clubs also have a history of Unders as that's how their last five head to head meetings have ended, including a 2-1 Rangers' win at MSG last month. 10* Under Rangers/Red Wings

10* Northwestern (4:30 ET): The reality of the modern bowl structure is that you're going to always have a fair number of subpar teams in the postseason. This year saw seven teams make a bowl that were outscored during the regular season. One of those is Kentucky, who - at least among "Power 5" (conference) reps - may be the weakest school involved. Not only were the Wildcats outscored by an average of about a full field goal per game, but they were also outgained by about 75 yards per game as well! Being that they are an overachiever, you also might be surprised to learn that they were 3-9 ATS, the worst such record among bowl teams. They rode a very easy SEC schedule (no 'Bama, Auburn or LSU!) to get here. 

Northwestern, unlike UK, closed its regular season strong. While it was apparent that no one would overtake Wisconsin in the Big 10 West, the Wildcats tried their best by winning and covering the last seven games! They did lose to both Penn State and Wisconsin (two top 10 teams), but besides a head-scratcher against Duke, that was it. Their 9-3 ATS record is among the best in the country and they were 8-1 SU/7-2 ATS favorites. Furthermore, while Kentucky was outscored and outgained during the year, N'western not only outgained opponents by almost 50 YPG, they also outscored them by almost 10 PPG. Basic metrics indicate that this year's Music City Bowl is a real mismatch. 

UK was outscored 86-20 in its final two regular season games, which came against Georgia and Louisville. Overall, they've dropped four of six. Defensively, Northwestern would appear to have a giant edge. They allowed just 20 points - total - the last three games (just 1 TD in the last two) while UK allowed 40+ pts three different times and 35.8 PPG overall over the second half of the season. There are also two specific areas where the Wildcats have the edge defensively. One is against the run (which will be handy here as run is what both offenses like to do). N'western is top 10 in the nation in yards allowed per carry (3.3) while UK is 89th (4.8). In the red zone, the Wildcats are dead last among bowl teams allowing points on over 92% of possessions. N'western is third best at 67.7%. Kentucky has not been successful in bowl games recently, last winning one in 2009 (lost last three). This is, on paper, one of the biggest mismatches of the entire bowl season. 10* Northwestern

8* Texas A&M (1:00 ET): After going 3-9 SU in each of Dave Clawson's first two seasons on the job, Wake Forest has now put forth B2B 7-win campaigns and is now in position to achieve its most wins in any season since the 2008 team. But they'll have to get by Texas A&M in this year's Belk Bowl to do so. While the Demon Deacons somewhat surprised me w/ a 7-5 SU reg season, A&M was largely a disappointment in finishing w/ the same record and that cost (now) fmr HC Kevin Sumlin his job. While they're thrilled to be welcoming in Jimbo Fisher (left Florida State) next year in College Station, there has been some question over the Aggies' level of motivation. I'm not buying it and will take the points even though WF is playing a virtual home game in Charlotte (not far from campus in Winston-Salem).

Wake Forest finished w/ the same efficiency rating at Miami did in the reg season, which may surprise some folks. QB John Wolford improved exponentially this year, going from a negative TD-INT ratio his first three seasons as the starter to 25-6 this year. That improvement is also tied to an experienced offensive line, but that group will have its hands full in this game w/ an A&M front seven that was top five nationally in sacks (despite losing Myles Garrett to the NFL!). This is - easily - the best offense WF has had under Clawson, but remember they are w/o top WR Greg Dortch. His absence made the winning record all the more surprising to me. At 8-3-1 ATS overall, the Deacons definitely qualify as a "surprise." They did win their bowl game LY (as a 12-pt underdog!) against another school (Temple) that was going through a HC change, but I'm interested to see how they now perform in the role of favorite. There were just two times in the reg season that WF was asked to lay more than a TD against a FBS foe, one of them being the finale against Duke, which they promptly lost outright. 

Certainly, laying a field goal to a SEC opponent is uncharted territory for the Demon Deacons. I see two pretty evenly matched teams here w/ the coaching change for A&M being the reason for the field goal advantage. Like A&M, the Deacons have a suspect defense, one that allows 444 YPG for the season and 569 yards over the L4 games. So, look for the Aggies to be able to move the ball in this one. In the five games w/ Nick Starkel as the starting QB, their offense averaged 36 PPG. He will play here. The five teams that beat A&M this year were: LSU, Auburn, Miss St, Alabama and UCLA. With the exception of the Bruins (who A&M led big in the season opener), all those teams are better than Wake Forest. 8* Texas A&M

10* Portland (10:35 ET): I think we've gone from "trusting" back to questioning "the process" in Philly. Make no mistake about it, the 76ers have been built the "right way" and will eventually be a force in the Eastern Conference. But I thought oddsmakers and the public were being far too optimistic w/ a win projection approaching .500 this season. Remember, they only won 28 all of last year (against 54 losses). I did NOT think the Sixers would be a playoff team this year and sure enough, a surprisingly hot start has subsided and the team now finds itself three games below .500, even after the win on X-Mas Day over the Knicks. Prior to that, they had gone 0-5 SU and ATS their L5 games. Lay the points w/ Portland here.

The Blazers have had some time off to recoup. They did not play X-Mas, nor did they play either of the L2 days. They've been off ever since a 95-92 win over the Lakers on 12.23. That was a game where the bench actually scored 41 of the 95 pts, led by Maurice Harkless' 22. I expect a MUCH better performance from the starting five tonight, especially seeing as PG Damian Lillard (DNP vs. Lakers) is expected back. Lillard ranks sixth in the league in PPG (26.2) and also missed the team's 102-85 loss to Denver on 12.22. This is a really important game for the Blazers, who have not won on their home floor since November 18th against Sacramento (lost six straight!). It's also a revenge spot as they lost out in Philly, 101-81 (as 4-pt dogs), last month. In that game, the Blazers shot only 33.3% from the field. They'll almost certainly improve upon that number tonight.

This will be the third straight road game for Philadelphia, who before holding the Knicks to 98, had allowed 100+ in 15 straight games. They've actually covered five straight meetings w/ Portland, but when visiting the Moda Center are accustomed to getting more points than this. While both of these teams can expect to compete for one of the final playoff spots in their respective conferences the rest of the way, Portland is better and there's value here laying the points. Over the L5 games, the Blazers are giving up an average of only 97.2 PPG and are the much better defensive team here. 10* Portland

10* Over Flames/Sharks (10:35 ET): Similar to the Eastern Conference (which I discussed yday in a free play analysis), I'm not particularly sure there's much we can discern about the Western Conference as we prepare to turn the calendar to 2018. Well, expect for one thing and it's the same thing I said about the East. One division in the Conference looks to be significantly stronger than the other. In the case of the West, I expect the Central to put five teams into the playoffs, claiming both Wild Cards in the process. The two teams in question here both hail from the Pacific, making the two points available tonight seem pretty important. Who actually wins here though is anybody's guess. I'm playing the total, the Over specifically. 

San Jose currently occupies that coveted third place position in the Pacific. There's some distance between them and the top two, Los Angeles and Vegas, who coincidentally play each other this evening. Judging by their YTD goal differential, I certainly think the Sharks are one of the top teams in the Pacific. The key factor for them has been goaltending as they rank 2nd in the league, allowing just 2.4 goals per game. It also helps to be 2nd in the league in penalty killing (at 86.5%). However, what's interesting here is that it appears it will NOT be Aaron Dell between the pipes tonight, but rather Martin Jones. Jones has pretty good numbers himself, but it is Dell that leads the league in both save percentage and goals against average. His absence makes the overall environment more conducive to an Over.

The Sharks may rank only 20th in the league in goals per game, but prior to last Saturday's 2-0 shutout of the Kings, they'd scored three or more goals in seven straight games (three times scoring five!). They also have the league's sixth best power play percentage at 22.3. That has the potential to be huge as Calgary ranks just 26th on the PK.  While two-thirds of San Jose's games this season have stayed Under, they do average 34.8 shots per game here on the home ice. That trend of staying Under at that rate is due to decline as is the Flames' more recent trend of going Under in seven of the last nine games. Both teams are well rested here and Calgary is 9-4 Over the L3 seasons when playing w/ 3+ days rest. 10* Over Flames/Sharks

8* Washington State (9:00 ET): We've seen a significant line move for this year's edition of the Holiday Bowl. Clearly, early bettors are banking on the notion that Michigan State will be "motivated" by being "slighted" in favor of rival Michigan, who got the better bowl spot on New Year's Day (Outback Bowl vs. S Carolina) despite losing to Sparty in the regular season. In my mind, what we now have is some nice value on a Wazzu team that should be hungry to atone for LY's bowl "no-show" against Minnesota. This is a program that still only has ONE bowl victory going all the way back to 2003. Perhaps, all things considered, it should be the Cougars that are the more motivated side come Thursday night. Take the points. 

Both teams finished their respective regular seasons 9-3 SU. Both come in ranked in the top 20. Truthfully, I wasn't as high as the pollsters were on either team. I said it multiple times throughout the regular season, but Michigan State was among the most fortunate teams in the country, record-wise. Consider that their point differential in Big 10 play was only +15 despite a 7-2 SU record. To put that number in its proper perspective, consider that Penn State (also 7-2 SU in Big 10 play) outscored its Big 10 foes by 186 points! Ohio State's point differential was +238! Sparty's Big 10 point differential was actually "in the black" (negative!) before thumping Rutgers, 40-7, in the last game. All other Big 10 wins were by 10 pts or less, four by a TD or less and that doesn't even include "stealing" a cover vs. Indiana w/ a late TD (won by 8). 

Wazzu outgained opponents by 132.2 YPG, better than MSU's 80.5. I have them rated slightly higher than Sparty in my own personal power ratings, so that's where the value comes in. I concede that the Cougs haven't done a whole lot worth mentioning outside Pullman this season. However, a key here is that their defense is far better than most realize. I expect this to be a low-scoring game where points could be at a premium. Note that in HALF their games this year, Michigan State failed top 18 points on offense! Led by QB Luke Falk, Wazzu comes in averaging 446.4 YPG on offense. They scored 30+ in eight games. Maybe they're held in check, but plus the points they are the play. 8* Washington State

8* TCU/Stanford Under (9:00 ET): The bowl matchups are starting to get more "attractive" on Thursday w/ three of the four pitting ranked teams against one another. This is one of them. I liked both TCU and Stanford coming into this season as the former got the "honor" of being labeled "my most improved team in the country" and the win total I had on them (Over 7.5) cashed easily. So you may be surprised to see that I'm NOT on the Horned Frogs here. That's because I also have a ton of respect for Stanford, especially w/ RB Bryce Love suiting up. This should be a very good game, between two well-coached teams, and that should lend itself to an Under play in my opinion. Both teams allow fewer than 21.5 PPG w/ TCU allowing only 17.6.

The Under was 9-3 for TCU in the regular season, not surprising, given the defensive prowess. Like Stanford, the Horned Frogs (#11) are in the top 15 in defensive efficiency (Stanford is #15). Over the final two months, only one offense - that being Oklahoma's (so no shame there!) was able to top 24 pts against these Horned Frogs. And in the reg season matchup w/ the Sooners, they shut them out in the 2nd half (in Norman!). Iowa State was the only team besides OU to beat the Frogs and that was a 14-7 final. Getting back to the defense, it ranks top five nationally in yards per attempt (rushing), which seems like a good thing when getting set to face Love. That number per attempt was just 2.9! It's not just the run that this stop unit is great against, however. They also allow just a 52% completion rate, which is pretty impressive playing in the Big 12. For the season, they held opponents to 122 YPG below season averages.

The TCU offense scored more than 27 pts only two times in the last eight games and those came against Baylor and Kansas, who went a combined 1-17 SU in conference play (2-22 overall!) w/ the one win being Baylor beating Kansas. As you know, they don't play a lot of defense in the Big 12, so the Stanford defense (which faces some strong passing attacks in the Pac 12) will be a tall order. The Cardinal were also their conference runner-up and like TCU losing to Oklahoma twice, they lost to USC twice. We have two inconsistent QB's at the helm here. 8* TCU/Stanford Under

10* Detroit (8:00 ET): Horizon League play commences on Thursday and w/ Valparaiso having bolted for the "greener pastures" of the Missouri Valley, this particular conference race seems to be wide open. Well, to be fair, Oakland is probably the favorite, followed by the team that won the Conf Tourney LY, Northern Kentucky. The two teams playing here, Detroit and Green Bay, are probably "middle of the pack" teams, but that doesn't make this game any less important. Especially w/ both entering conference play having losing records. Detroit, in particular, appears to be in real trouble as they've lost SEVEN in a row. But that will have them as the more "desperate" side here and thus I'll take the points.

The Titans of Detroit will play their first two Horizon League games on the road w/ a date in Milwaukee following this one, on Saturday. There are definitely some defensive issues that need fixing here - in a hurry - if they are going to have any success in the conference portion of the schedule. Giving up 89.8 PPG is not a reciepe for success and counteracts the fact they average 84.4 PPG themselves. Five of those seven straight losses have been by single digits (other two to UCLA and Michigan) and some of those could have been flipped to W's w/ some better defensive effort. Thankfully, here, they may have found the perfect opponent. Green Bay comes in shooting only 41.1% from the field for the season and was held to 60 pts in its last game.

Now that last game for the Phoenix was against Wisconsin. But they also dropped their previous home game, to Bowling Green. Overall, it's four losses in the past six games and both wins were against non-board teams. In fact, Green Bay has just one win over a lined foe and it was a two-point win, as a home dog, over Eastern Illinois. So I wouldn't be in a rush to lay points w/ this team right now. They were favored in both meetings vs. Detroit LY, but failed to cover each time, once losing outright (as 5-pt road favorites). Consider that they shot better than SIXTY PERCENT in the two games combined, something they almost assuredly will NOT be doing here, and still failed to cash. These teams have a history of playing close games. All signs point to taking the points. 10* Detroit

8* Oklahoma State (5:15 ET): Both of these squads had bigger aspirations than the Camping World Bowl, but ironically I thought both had the potential for more severe regression in 2017. Va Tech was coming off a 10-4 SU year where they represented the Coastal in the ACC Title Game. But, from the start this year, I preferred Miami over them. A 7-1 SU start was a total mirage as the Hokies were, in fact, hammered down in Coral Gables. To be frank, they played a pretty weak schedule for an ACC squad and lost by double digits to both top 10 teams they faced. Their defense is good, but I just don't see them having the offense neccessary to keep up w/ QB Mason Rudolph and the Pokes. Lay the points.

Oklahoma State finished their regular season 9-3 SU, same as Virginia Tech. A win here and they make it three straight 10-win seasons for HC Mike Gundy (and 4 out of 5!). In essence, the Cowboys' hopes and dreams for the year ended w/ a 62-52 loss to rival Oklahoma in early November. (Bedlam played early this year). I'm not putting much stock into a late season loss to Kansas State as the Pokes had little to play for while the Wildcats were fighting for bowl eligibility. Another similarity (besides WL record) to Va Tech is the Pokes lost to the two best teams on the schedule and beat West Virginia. But they also beat Iowa State, which is a better win than anything Va Tech has on its resume. There were actually two common opponents (that both beat) - WVU and Pitt. Oklahoma State's MOV was 49 pts while Va Tech's was only 13.

This is the classic "clash of styles" matchup. Oklahoma State averages 46.3 PPG (3rd in FBS). Va Tech allows only 13.5 (5th). When I look at which unit is likely to come closer to its average, I heavily lean to the former's offense. For the 1st time in Big 12 history, we saw a 4,000+ yd QB (Rudolph), a 1,000+ yd RB (Justice Hill) and TWO 1,000+ yd WR's (James Washington and Marcell Ateman). Washington is the nation's top receiver. The Pokes were #2 in total yardage per game (575.5) and #1 in passing (392.3). Yes, Va Tech posted three regular season shutouts, but two of those were against Delaware (FCS) and Old Dominion. Getting back to the Hokies' inability to "keep pace" here, an already suspect offense will be w/o its leading rusher (Travon McMillian) and receiver (Cam Phillips). QB Josh Jackson only has a 9-7 TD-INT ratio vs. Power 5 teams and the Cowboys' defense is better than you think. 8* Oklahoma State

8* Under Purdue/Arizona (8:30 ET): The Foster Farms Bowl features two teams that should be "happy to be here," simply based on the notion neither was in a bowl at the end of last season. Purdue was due for better luck in 2017 based on the fact they were tied for the worst turnover differential in the country last season (-17). They won their final reg season game, over rival Indiana, to become bowl eligible. Meanwhile, Arizona dropped its final two reg season games to finish 7-5 SU. Again, Rich Rod's team improving in '17 did not surprise me given most key metrics were pointing up after dipping down to 3-9 SU last season. Given the disparate styles of play here, something will have to give w/ the total and I see an Under.

Purdue's defense - by the numbers - is very good. They allow only 19.3 PPG and that number actually drops outside of West Lafayette. That's key when facing an Arizona offense that comes in averaging 41.8 PPG, led by QB Khalil Tate. Over the L8 games, the Boilermakers didn't allow more than 25 pts to any opponent. (Granted, the schedule was not tough). But Michigan and Louisville were the only teams to score more than 25 against them all season. The problem here though is the offense averages only 24.2 PPG. 1st year HC Jeff Brohm will eventually have an impact on this group, but it wasn't this year nor will it be this game. In half their games, the Boilers scored 24 pts or less. 

Arizona is all offense and no defense, so it's just the reverse of Purdue. Playing in the Pac 12, the Wildcats didn't exactly face the kind of stout defense they'll see here. The good news though is that the defense will get a reprieve facing the Purdue offense. This O/U line clearly skews more to Arizona's style of play and I believe that's a mistake given Purdue had gone Under in six straight and 9 of 11 (w/ consistently lower totals) prior to the reg season finale vs. Indiana. 8* Under Purdue/Arizona 

10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): Even though they are off (arguably) their biggest win of the season to date (over Houston, 112-107, on Christmas Day), I expect no letdown from the Thunder here as you should look for this team to quietly move up the standings in the Western Conference once we hit 2018. In fact, their predictable ascension has already started to take hold w/ five straight wins (7-1 SU L8) putting them into a fifth place tie (w/ Denver) entering play on Wednesday. As for the opponent, Toronto, they may have already hit peak value as they lost last night in Dallas, 98-93, snapping a six-game win streak. A weak schedule was a big reason for a 10-1 SU start to December, North of the Border. The Raptors are 16-2 SU against sub-.500 foes in 2017, but only 7-7 SU against winning teams. Lay the points.

Playing in the second night of a back to back (on the road, no less) puts Toronto even more "against the wall" tonight. Yes, in the past, I've often said that teams are UNDERvalued in the second leg of a B2B and while - from a strict power ratings perspective - that appears to be the case here, looks can also be deceiving. It really can't be overstated just how weak the Raptors' recent schedule had been as they'd played struggling Philly twice, not to mention Charlotte, Sacramento (twice), Brooklyn, Phoenix (twice!) as well as the depleted Clippers and Grizzlies. This is a big step up in class, nevermind the fact they just lost to a bad Dallas team last night. DeMar DeRozan had one of "those nights" on Tuesday, shooting just 3 of 16 from the field and finishing w/ only eight points. As a team, the Raptors shot just 33.7% from the field. 

You might be thinking "well, Toronto will definitely improve on that shooting tonight." That's probably accurate, but to what degree. As I've been harping on for weeks now, OKC is #3 in the league in defensive efficiency. The "key" to this team starting worse than expected was that they went 0-5 SU in games decided by six points or less. They've since gone 9-1 SU in such contests. They're 11-3 SU overall in December, which is fairly comparable to the Raptors' record this month. Toronto isn't nearly the team on the road that they are at home while, conversely, OKC is significantly better at home than on the road. 10* Oklahoma City

8* Arkansas (8:00 ET): The Razorbacks may not be ranked, but they do find themselves near the top of the "others receiving votes" category as they've only lost twice, albeit both times in blowout fashion. The first was a NCAA Tournament rematch w/ North Carolina while the other occurred in their only "true" road game to date (at Houston). Tonight should be another blowout, only this one being in their favor as they come off extended rest (last played eight days ago). The last game was another blowout that went their way, that one being a 104-69 demolition of Oral Roberts. They had no problem covering a 24-pt spread there, making it four consecutive SU and ATS wins for the Hogs. Make it five in a row here as we lay the points.

They may not be ranked, but I could make a case for the Razorbacks being one of the 15 best teams in America (they are #7 in RPI!). They are top 50 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency, ranking 18th in the former. Despite the two blowout losses, they have still managed to outscore opponents by an average of 16 PPG and here in Fayatteville, that number jumps all the way up to 25.3 PPG. During the current 4-game SU/ATS win streak, they've been a favorite of 16.5 or more points three times (and obviously covered every time). Only one of their six wins has been decided by fewer than 16 pts and that was against Minnesota (who came in ranked #14), a game they covered by double digits. Coming off the layoff, I expect little to no rust as the Hogs' ATS record when playing w/ 7+ days rest is 8-2. Last time out, they led Oral Roberts by 29 at halftime. They shot nearly 60% for the game and forced 27 turnovers. 

I should probably mention the opponent, no? Just like Oral Roberts, CS-Bakersfield is going to be ill-equipped to deal w/ the highest scoring team in the SEC and the pressure it brings. Four times this season, the Razorbacks have forced 19+ turnovers. While the WAC contingent has been better at protecting the basketball lately, that's only b/c they've been facing a weaker slate of opponents. Earlier in the year, they turned it over 25x against Northern Arizona. Despite the weak slate, the Roadrunners have still lost 5 of 8. This is just their fifth lined opponent of the season, and EASILY the toughest, save for Arizona (whom they lost to by 32). 8* Arkansas

6* Boston (7:05 ET): This is a big game for the Bruins. Not only are they trying to solidify their current standing in the Atlantic Division (in third place), but they're fighting w/ Toronto for second, which would guarantee home ice advantage in a 1st round playoff series between the two. Perhaps, you remember the Bruins NOT having home ice advantage in the 1st round last year (vs. Ottawa) when they were eliminated in six games. That's the other factor I'm looking at here as it's a big revenge spot for Beantown. This is their first time playing the Sens since last year's playoffs and they'll certainly be eager to reverse a trend that's seen them go just 3-11 SU head to head (1-6 here at home) vs. Ottawa, who is down this year. Big moneyline is certainly justified here. 

I remember thinking last year's playoff series was going to be the time Boston "turned the tables" on Ottawa. They won Game 1, on the road, but then proceeded to lose four of the next five, including all three here at home! The Senators were not a particularly great team in 2016-17 as they were actually outscored in the regular season (only playoff team that could say that). So, I'm not surprised to see that they've somewhat faceplanted this season, as only Buffalo has fewer points and a worse goal differential in the Eastern Conference. Boston led the league in shots per game differential LY, a key metric that indicated they were the more likely of the two teams here to sustain success. 

Furthermore, Ottawa and Boston come into tonight's game trending in very different directions. The Sens have lost three straight and 8 of their last 10. They've been shutout five different times during that stretch, not to mention have allowed 4+ goals in half of those games. They are 27th in the league in goals per game and 26th in goals allowed. Even special teams have failed w/ a 25th place ranking on the power play and 24th in penalty killing. So, really, there's nothing this team does well. As for the Bruins, they've won four in a row while outscoring the opposition 15-4. They are 5th in the league in goals against and 4th in penalty killing. Ottawa is just 2-7 SU after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game (lost 1-0 to Florida on Saturday). Bruins' goalie Tuukka Rask is well-rested here and sports a .939 save percentage his L4 starts. He's 8-0-1 L9 starts and was named the league's #1 star last week. Going back further, Boston is 13-3-1 its last 17 games while Ottawa is 3-12-3 its L18. 6* Boston

incorrectly entered play! 

10* Iowa (5:15 ET): The Hawkeyes have (infamously) not won a bowl game since 2010, dropping five in a row - both SU and ATS. But there's a big difference between this year's Pinstripe Bowl and those last five postseason appearances, that being they'll be favored here! Sure enough, four of those last five bowl games saw an unranked Hawkeyes squad "stepping up in class" to take on a ranked foe. That won't be the case this year vs. Boston College. B.C. does enter this game having won five of six, including victories over bowl teams Florida State, Virginia and Louisville. But they also lost starting QB Anthony Brown late in the season. I'm "hanging my hat" on Iowa being highly motivated here and I shouldn't have to remind you that they absolutely walloped Ohio State 55-24 last month. 

This will not be confused with a Big 12 regular season game. These two squads like to run the ball and play good defense. Both are top seven nationally against the pass. The final result will likely be decided by who runs the ball more effectively. Boston College RB AJ Dillon, a freshman, went for 1432 yards. Twice he went for 200+ yds in a game. Not to be outdone, Iowa's Akrum Wadley was a 1,000+ yard back and is also a receiving threat. The key though is the rushing defenses. B.C. is 103rd in the nation, giving up 5.0 yards per carry (198 YPG!). Iowa is significantly better in that area, allowing only 4.1 YPG and they also allowed only nine rushing TD's ALL YEAR! The Eagles defense may also be w/o DE Harold Landry, which would be significant.

Again, Iowa beat Ohio State 55-24 this season. Thus, it was somewhat head-scratching that they finished w/ losses in two of the final three games, including one to Purdue. They scored just 29 pts total in the two games after beating Ohio State. But they did win six of the seven games they were favored in (straight up). They actually average 28.3 PPG and give up only 19.9. That's a better scoring margin than B.C. against what grades out as a harder schedule. I feel this line has decreased solely based on past Iowa bowl failures, but this is the first time in a long time where the Hawkeyes enter the bowl as the better team on paper. I have them rated as better on BOTH sides of the football. 10* Iowa 

8* Florida State (1:30 ET): Save for Florida Atlantic (covered!), no team is a bigger favorite this bowl season than the Seminoles. This may surprise you given that this was the most disappointing season down in Tallahassee in recent memory. Not only did the 'Noles need to reschedule a 12th reg season game (vs. LA Monroe!) just to get to six wins, there's been some debate over their bowl eligibility as one of those wins was against a Delaware State program and maybe shouldn't have counted. But where there's no debate is FSU's talent level compared to that of Southern Miss. Playing for an interim HC, there is a question of motivation here, but I feel the 'Noles show up "ready to play" and I'll lay the points.

Comparing the stats between these teams is not "apples to apples" as one team plays in the ACC and the other in Conference USA. Southern Miss won three straight and six of eight to finish the reg season at 8-4 SU, but the teams they beat are a real "rogue's gallery." Their "best" wins were on the road against La Tech and Marshall, both on the road. But those also came by a combined eight points. The other six wins were all against non-bowl teams. In fact, the Golden Eagles didn't even play a single opponent ranked in my top 65! So that's why they're such a prohibitive underdog in this spot. They shared one common opponent w/ FSU in the reg season, that being La Monroe. While the Seminoles beat the WarHawks by 32, the USM prevailed by just 11.

Florida State's season essentially was tanked in the opener, when they lost to Alabama (were ranked #3 in the country at the time!) w/ QB Deondre Francois being lost for the season to injury. There's also a number of "healthy scratches" here with some players electing to skip the Independence Bowl in order to prepare for the NFL Draft. But those who remain will play hard for interim HC Odell Haggins, who has been a position coach here dating back to 1994 and may be coaching for his job w/ the Willie Taggert regime set to take over next year. It's also interesting that despite the majority of bets in this game being place on the underdog, the line has actually increased. That's typically a sign of "sharper dollars" being on the other side. 8* Florida State

8* UCLA (9:00 ET): This is one of two bowl games on Tuesday's slate where the line has been dramatically impacted by the status of one team's QB. In this instance, Josh Rosen (concussion) is still not cleared to play for UCLA and that has them now listed as sizable underdogs to Kansas State in this year's edition of the Cactus Bowl. Rosen, who I would choose if I had the #1 draft pick in April (assuming he declares), would undoubtedly be a significant loss for UCLA. But often times, with injuries such as this one, we see an overreaction by the marketplace and that's what I'm banking on here. There's always the outside chance Rosen does play (and we'd have a great line if he did!), but at the same time, it's not as if Kansas State's defense is very good. Take the points. 

 Yes, UCLA's defense is very bad at stopping the run and K-State has a significant edge on special teams. However, as far as the UCLA run defense goes, will the Wildcats be able to take advantage? Their offense is down to a third-string QB (Skylar Thompson). Tip your cap to the way this team finished its reg season (wins over Iowa State and Oklahoma State), but those two victories came by a combined six points. Kansas State is a program that I'd prefer much more in the underdog role, not as a favorite. They were favored only FIVE times in the reg season, one of those against a FCS program, another against one of the worst FBS teams in the country (Charlotte) and then also Baylor and Kansas (went a combined 2-22). They're being overvalued here. 

It's not like the Kansas State pass defense is very good either. So either Rosen or backup Devon Modster, should have a very big night here. The Wildcats' secondary allowed a completion percentage of 62.2 in the reg season with opposing QB's averaging 310 YPG. They gave up 432 YPG overall. As maligned as UCLA's run defense has been (rightfully so), they improved down the stretch (held USC to only 153 yds on 41 carries!) and Kansas State's offensive line will be w/o its starting right tackle Dalton Risner. If this is HC Bill Snyder's "swan song" for K-State, the team will certainly want to send him out a winner. But the UCLA players will certainly want to impress the incoming Chip Kelly regime as well. 8* UCLA 

10* Under Nets/Spurs (8:35 ET): It was rare not to see the Spurs play on X-Mas, but I'm sure Greg Popovich's team welcomed the day off, following a three-game road tip. You've got to tip your cap to them (again!) as despite not having Kwahi Leonard at the start of the year, they still have managed to maintain the third best record in the Western Conference. Tonight, on paper, looks like an easy one as they host the struggling Nets, who have dropped five of six. This is a battle of contrasting styles as Brooklyn plays at the 4th fastest tempo in the league while San Antonio plays at the second slowest. I'll side w/ the more proven commodity (SA) establishing its "style of game," which means Under is the way to go here (too many points to lay).

The Spurs, as per usual, rank near the top of the league in defensive efficiency (tied for third). They allow a league-low 98.0 PPG and are one of only two teams to currently be allowing below triple digits (Boston is the other). Over the L5 games, four of them wins, they're allowing an average of just 95.4 PPG. The one game they lost though (Utah), they scored only 89 pts themselves. Still, they've allowed more than 105 pts just one time all month and that was against one of the top two offenses in the league (Houston). Brooklyn may like to go fast on offense, but they're not efficient as they rank just 19th in points per possession. That explains why 11 of their last 14 games have stayed Under. 

Defensively, these teams are obviously "worlds apart" as the Nets allow the fourth most points per game in the league. But San Antonio plays at that deliberate pace, so while they may be efficient, I don't have them scoring a ton of points in this spot. Realize that the Spurs have failed to hit 100 pts SEVEN times in December and have topped 105 pts only three times. One of those was the last game against Sacramento (who is even worse defensively than Brooklyn). That was one of just three games this month the Spurs shot 50% or better. The Spurs are a perfect 10-0 Under this season facing a team that allows at least 106 PPG. They are also 7-1 Under when playing w/ exactly two days rest. Also, note the final score of Brooklyn's last game is misleading as it went into overtime. 10* Under Nets/Spurs

10* Over N Illinois/Duke (5:15 ET): This year's edition of the Quick Lane Bowl pits Northern Illinois against Duke. The former is used to playing here at Ford Field due to their plethora of MAC Title Game appearances. They didn't win their division this season, but still finished a solid 6-2 in conf play (8-4 SU overall) w/ the two losses coming to Toledo and C Michigan (meaningless reg season finale). Duke, meanwhile, needed to win its two final reg season games just to get here. It was a very "up and down" season in Durham w/ the Blue Devils having opened 4-0 SU (including a very impressive non-conf win over N'western), then losing six straight, followed by the B2B wins. I've got no read on the side, so to the total we go!

Duke at long last snapped its drought of no bowl victories (dated back to 1961!) two years ago w/ a win in the Pinstripe Bowl over Indiana. They failed to make a bowl game LY as they dropped to 4-8 SU. But, as mentioned above, they equaled that win total through just four games this season. Clearly, the most impressive win was 41-17 over N'western. But the good times would not last as the offense never broke 21 points during the six-game losing streak. However, note four of those six losses came by a TD or less. Interestingly, in all six wins, the Blue Devils scored 27 or more. We'll need to see more of the Daniel Jones (QB) that started the year w/ a 5-2 TD-INT ratio and threw for 226 YPG, than the one we saw in the middle portion of the season. In the final two reg season games, Duke gained 943 total yds. 

Northern Illinois certainly has a formidable defense. The Huskies led the COUNTRY in tackles for loss (8.8 per game!) and were #2 in sacks. Yet, they still gave up 31 pts in each of the final two reg season games and enter the Bowl on a three-game Over streak. There seems to be a prevailing wisdom that this will be a lower-scoring affair and as a result, oddsmakers posted a low O/U line. By kickoff, this may be the lowest O/U line of the season for NIU, save for a game against a Kent State team that may have had the worst offense in the country this season. The Huskies' offense really came on in the 2H of the season, scoring 30 or more in five of the last six games. They wound up averaging over 30 PPG. Duke went Under in all but three reg season games, but there's a good chance this ends up as their lowest O/U line of the season to date as well. 10* Over N Illinois/Duke