8* Boston (8:45 ET): The Celtics, despite NOT having the home court advantage for the series, enter as favorites to win the Eastern Conference Finals vs. Miami. That makes sense to me as the Celtics had the best scoring differential and net efficiency rating among teams in the East, during the regular season. They were my pick to win the East before the playoffs started and after eliminating Brooklyn and Milwaukee, the team has given me no reason to come off that opinion. If the Celtics are to confirm their status as series favorites, it stands to reason they’ll win one of these first two games in MIami. I’m taking the points in Game 1. 

Miami is the top seed and hasn’t lost at home in the playoffs. But I don’t think they’ve faced what Boston has faced in the first two rounds. The Celtics have had to contain the likes of Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Heat faced a subpar Hawks team in Round 1, then their Round 2 opponent (Philadelphia) was a bit of a mess as Joel Embiid was out the first two games and James Harden was never himself. I’m not sure the Heat can continue to rely so heavily on Jimmy Butler at the offensive end, especially against one of the premier defensive teams in the league. 

I know that Miami has a pretty nice scheduling edge heading into the series as they’ve been off for four days while Boston just won a Game 7 on Sunday. But it was a comfortable win for the Celtics 48 hours ago. The Celtics lost only once by more than three points in the second round and that was actually Game 1, when they were coming off a long layoff after sweeping the Nets in Round 1. The fact that Boston is the better team and series favorite is reflected in this number, but I just believe they’re set to “make good.” Even though the last series went seven games, no team posted a better net efficiency rating in Round 2 than did the C’s, who also have the best net overall efficiency rating in the playoffs. 8* Boston

9* Boston (7:10 ET): The Red Sox took yesterday’s opener 6-3 and are now slight favorites for Tuesday’s rematch. I know that may seem like a “reach” given the respective records of the two teams, but Boston is a bit better than its 14-21 record while Houston is due to regress a little after winning 11 in a row, thanks to a slew of outstanding pitching performances. The Red Sox have won three of four now while the Astros have dropped two of three. I look for a repeat of yesterday’s result. 

Talking about the Astros’ pitching being due for regression, let’s now look at today’s starter, Jose Urquidy. He has a 3-1 team start record on the road this season, but his ERA in those four starts is 6.35. Urquidy lasted only three innings in his last start (game was suspended due to rain) and only once all season has he made it through six. The Astros’ ace reliever Hector Neris had made 10 consecutive scoreless appearances before the Red Sox got to him last night for three runs in the eighth. The home team can and will put runs on the board here. 

Obviously, Boston is highly motivated in this series as it’s a rematch from last year’s ALCS, which they lost in six games. Nathan Eovaldi, who leads the staff in innings pitched, gets the nod Tuesday. Eovaldi is only 1-1 in his seven starts this year, but has a 3.15 ERA and 1.075 WHIP. He’s deserving of a better record, particularly because he’s yet to allow more than 3 ER in any 2022 outing. He’s gone more than six innings in three of his last four starts. It’s very interesting to look at the starting pitching matchup for this game and see how the inferior pitcher (Urquidy) has been getting better results of late. I think that’s due for a change. 9* Boston

10* Over Reds/Guardians (6:10 ET): I’m a little surprised that this O/U isn’t higher. These are two of the top four Over teams in baseball over the first month with the Reds being #1. The reason for Cincy being so far in front of the rest of the pack in the Over department is pretty clear. Their horrendous pitching staff is giving up an average of 5.9 runs per game, most in all of MLB. As a result, they’ve gone Over 64.7% of the time. No other team has gone Over more than 58.8% of its games. Cleveland is 4th (57.6%), more due to its offense, which has produced the third most runs in the American League. But also only one AL team has allowed more runs per game. 

With the Reds and then the Tigers coming to town over the next week, the Guardians would seem to have an excellent opportunity to move up the standings. They’re 16-17 right now, 3.5 games back of the Twins, but also are one of only five AL teams to currently have a positive YTD run differential. But despite the (seemingly) favorable matchup today, expect Cleveland to give up some runs. Starter Zach Plesac has a 4.68 ERA and has shown little signs of improvement, turning in a 8.40 ERA and 1.667 WHIP his last three outings. 

It did not take long for this season to be a disaster for the Reds. They have the worst record & run differential. The unthinkable happened on Sunday as they threw a no-hitter and lost 1-0! Maybe that’s why we’re getting such good value with this number. Connor Overton has been one of the Reds’ better starters, but he’s also gotten to face Pittsburgh in two of his three starts. Overton had four walks and just one strikeout his last time out, which is concerning. These teams played two games in Cincinnati earlier this year. Cleveland won both and there were 15 and 10 total runs scored. Look for another slugfest tonight. 10* Over Reds/Guardians

10* Run Line LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): First off, note that this is a run line play where I am taking the Dodgers -1.5. The Dodgers pulled the proverbial “rabbit out of the hat” on Sunday, rallying from an early 4-0 deficit to defeat the Phillies 5-4 and thus avoid what would have been an embarrassing sweep. Now it’s time for Dodger Blue to go on another big run.  This is a team that’s already winning by an average of 2.1 runs per game this season. I know it’s a division foe and a familiar face on the mound that they’ll be facing here, but the Dodgers should win big. Lay the -1.5. 

Despite losses in five of their last seven games, I’ve still got LA rated as the best team in MLB (although the Yankees are certainly making their own case). Tonight the Dodgers have Tony Gonsolin on the mound. He’s 3-0 in six starts with a 1.33 ERA and 1.074 WHIP. Gonsolin has allowed only five runs, one of them unearned, in 27 IP. Last time out, which was at Pittsburgh, he allowed just one hit over five scoreless frames. Opponents are hitting just .168 off Gonsolin, who has some revenge on his mind from a start in Arizona on 4/26 where the D’backs ultimately prevailed 5-3. 

Madison Bumgarner is enjoying something of a renaissance for Arizona as his 1.78 ERA is his lowest through seven starts for his career. The previous best came in 2013. I do not expect MadBum to continue to pitch that well moving forward. He didn’t face the Dodgers in the previous series, but is 15-15 all-time against them in 38 matchups. The D’backs come into this series off B2B losses to the Cubs and have scored just 11 runs total in their L4 games. 10* Run Line LA Dodgers (-1.5)

9* Run Line Colorado (8:40 ET): Though they’ve had the Rockies’ number the last couple seasons, this shapes up as a tough spot for the Giants, who were just rocked last night in St. Louis. First off, please note that this is a run line selection where I am backing Colorado +1.5. The Rocks have revenge here for a prior three-game sweep, which occurred out in San Francisco. That three-game sweep saw the Rockies get outscored 24-8. Here at home, where they’re obviously a much better ballclub, I’m willing to wager that they can at least stick within a run. 

Colorado is 12-7 at Coors Field this season, 2-0 as an underdog of +125 to +175. They are also 5-1 in one-run games, which is why they are .500 overall despite a -28 run differential. Moving forward, the Rockies are probably due to regress in one-run games, which is another reason to take them on the RL here. Speaking of regression though, that’s what I’ve projected for the Giants from the very start of the season. There’s simply no way they are going to match LY’s success at the betting window. A day after being shutout, SF was buried Sunday night, giving up 15 runs.

When Alex Wood opposed Antonio Senzatela last week in San Fran, it was obviously Wood that got the upper-hand as he allowed just an unearned run over 5 ⅓ innings. Senzatela was charged with five (runs) in just 3 ⅔, but will be better in the rematch as he’s been more effective at home (4-0 TSR, 2.37 ERA). The Rockies came into Sunday with the highest batting average vs. lefties (in all of MLB) and Wood has a 5.32 career ERA against them. Having lost 11 in a row to the Giants, look for the Rockies to come out rather motivated Monday evening. Again, no worse than a one-run loss here. 9* Run Line Colorado

9* Under Nationals/Marlins (6:40 ET): The ML odds have shot up for this series opener, which I suppose makes sense given the Nationals’ general ineptitude (12-24 record) and the fact they’ve already been swept once by the Marlins this season. But the only other time Miami was this large of a ML favorite in 2022, they lost. Plus the Fish aren’t exactly flashing fine form at the moment. They’ve dropped 11 of 14 overall here in May. What I’ve got my eyes on here is the total, which is also on the move. 

Washington road games have averaged 11.3 runs so far this season. That’s easily the most in all of baseball. There were three games in Colorado, in case you were wondering. What’s unique about the average is that the Nats are scoring the most runs per game in all of MLB, away from home. They are also giving up the fourth most. It’s unsustainable, at least to this degree. Over the team’s last four games, all of which were at home, they scored 1 run or less three times. I think we’re about to see that meager offense start to “travel.” 

Sandy Alcantara is off a very sharp outing where he held Arizona to just one run on two hits over 7 IP. That game did end up going Over, but it was an 11-3 Miami win and they scored eight of those runs in the top of the ninth (I had Miami!). Alcantara also held Washington to just one run over six innings back on 4/29. Overall, he’s allowed 2 ER or less in all but one start this season. The Marlins’ offense has largely been “feast or famine” this year and has scored three times or less in 7 of the last 10 games. That’s good news for Washington starter Aaron Sanchez, who had a 0.93 ERA in two starts vs. Miami last year. 9* Under Nationals/Marlins

10* Under Mavs/Suns (8:00 ET): I hit the Over in Game 1, but this is a series that has seen the Under take over - cashing each of the last four games. Two of those four games I’ve hit the Under, three of the games saw fewer than 200 total points scored. This will be the lowest O/U line of the series in Game 7, not surprising based on the trajectory of the series as well as the well-known trend about betting totals in Game 7’s of the NBA Playoffs. Since ‘03, Game 7 Unders have hit 63% of the time, helped by a typically slower tempo and the referees “swallowing their whistles.” I’m following the historical trend on this one. 

Phoenix is hoping another trend plays out in this Game 7. Home teams have performed very well historically in Game 7s, going 109-33 straight up, including 9-1 when favored by six or more (as the Suns are right now, as of press time). Plus, the home team has gone 6-0 straight up and against the spread in this series so far. But it is difficult to look past the fact that the Suns had the lowest Round 1 net efficiency rating of any team that advanced and they are only outscoring Dallas by less than a point per game since Game 3. So I’ve got no interest in laying the points here. Especially since the Suns’ shooting has come back “down to Earth” (just 39.7% in Game 6). 

The Suns are 12-3 Under playing with exactly two days of rest this season. They are also 12-4 Under off a SU loss as a favorite, 10-2 Under off a double digit loss and 8-1 Under after being held below 100 points the previous game. So there’s even more trends. Dallas may not be as stout defensively on the road as they are at home, but they also won’t make 16 threes again like they did in Game 6. The Mavs not only played at the slowest pace in the league during the regular season; they’ve also played at the slowest pace in the playoffs, of any team that advanced to the second round. 10* Under Mavs/Suns

9* St. Louis (7:05 ET): This may seem like a “strange call” based on the fact I was on the Giants yesterday, but the 4-0 result (in favor of the Cardinals) certainly weighs heavily on my mind when handicapping Sunday night’s rubber match. San Francisco did come in here and win 8-2 on Friday, but their six-game win streak is now over. The Giants had no answers at the plate for Dakota Hudson and four Cardinals’ relievers. I now expect Adam Wainwright to pitch well in this spot for the Cards. 

As I alluded to in yesterday’s analysis, there is no way the Giants will be as profitable to bet on in 2022 compared to last season’s historic +45 units made. There was a big jump in wins last season, so that’s another reason to expect regression. Sure enough, despite the team having a top four run differential, they are just 20-13 overall and currently third in the NL West standings. By the way, the Cardinals are a fine team in their own right as they certainly project to be in the playoff mix. They have the best run differential in the NL Central right now. 

Wainwright threw seven shutout innings of one-hit ball his last time out, his second straight quality start. Though just 3-3 in Wainwright starts this season, the Cardinals went 22-10 with him on the mound in 2021. His numbers look very solid and I don’t see any reason why he should regress. Now Carlos Rodon is off to a great start in his first season in San Francisco. But the Cardinals tend to do well against left-handed pitching, plus they’ve homered in 10 consecutive games. 9* St. Louis

8* LA Dodgers (4:10 ET): I simply cannot see the Dodgers being swept at home here, let alone in a four-game series of any kind. Give the Phillies some credit as they’ve come to Chavez Ravine and put 29 runs on the board in the first three games. But the first game was decided in the ninth inning and the second in the 10th. Yesterday wasn’t close, as the Phillies prevailed 8-3, but with LA you’re still talking about the best team in all of baseball (+69 run differential), even though they’ve now lost 5 of 6. 

The price seems extremely low on the Dodgers today, given that they are trying to avoid a sweep. I suppose that has a lot to do with the pitching matchup as the Dodgers will be sending Michael Grove to the mound while the Phils turn to Aaron Nola. Grove will be making his first career big league start, due to Clayton Kershaw going on the injured list. It seems like a tough spot with how the Phillies have produced at the plate so far, but I expect Grove to surprise and to get adequate run support on Sunday. 

Nola has a 1-6 team start record, so he’s far from a guarantee. The team has lost each of the last six times he’s been on the mound. Now Nola probably doesn’t deserve that TSR, but he did allow five runs his last time out against a light-hitting Seattle team. The Dodgers are averaging 5.5 runs per game at home this year and even with the losing skid, they are still outscoring opponents by 2.2 rpg overall. This just seems like a “buy low” spot on what I still consider the best team in MLB. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Over Mariners/Mets (1:40 ET): The Mets haven’t lost a series all year and will look to extend their streak to 10-0-1 here on Sunday. (They split a four-game series with Atlanta earlier this month, but that’s the only of their 10 previous series they didn’t win). Now they almost blew having an opportunity to win this series with Seattle as Saturday saw the Mets blow a four-run lead in the latter innings. But third-string catcher Patrick Mazeika won it in the bottom of the seventh with a tiebreaker home run. The Mets now have the best record in the National League (23-12) and are second in the overall standings, trailing only the Yankees.

Seattle won the first game of this series, 2-1 on Friday. They were huge +215 ML underdogs, facing Max Scherzer. But sloppy play in the field (three errors) cost them yesterday plus they left the bases loaded in the first inning. The Mariners, who I expected to regress here in 2022, have now dropped 13 of their last 17 games. They’ll send Robbie Ray to the bump today and he has struggled so far, producing a 4.22 ERA. Ray did have a season-high 10 K’s his last start, but before that, strikeouts were down and walks were up compared to last season. Ray also has a 1.473 WHIP on the road. 

The Mets, now 11-1 after a loss this season, counter with Carlos Carrasco. His numbers, especially at home (0.87 ERA, 0.822 WHIP), have been very good. But don't be surprised if he struggles a bit here. Carrasco also doesn’t have great strikeout numbers and he was rocked earlier this year by St. Louis. He has followed that up with B2B quality starts, including eight shutout innings vs. Atlanta. But I expect Carrasco’s numbers to go up and this looks like a really low total to jump on. The Over is 15-3 in the Mariners’ last 18 interleague road games vs. right-handed starters. 10* Over Mariners/Mets

6* Athletic Bilbao (1:30 ET): It was a putrid effort last week from Athletic Club (Bilbao) as they dropped all three points to Granada, losing 1-0. Bilbao finished the match with just 10 men after Mikel Vesga was sent off with a red card in the 85th minute. That pretty much sealed their fate, already facing a one-goal disadvantage. Certainly, that was not the result the faithful were expecting as the club badly needed points to stay in the mix for the top seven in La Liga. Since beating Atletico Madrid 2-0, Bilbao has drawn Valencia and lost to Granada. I can’t see them going three in a row without picking up full points. 

With Villarreal winning midweek, Athletic Club now faces a four-point deficit to get into the top seven and qualify for next season’s Europa Conference League. If they fail to make up that gap, there will be no European football again next season. They already have more points than they finished with last season (46) when they finished 10th. So there has been improvement, but honestly they should be even higher in the table (as they are fifth in expected points). Something to consider is that Bilbao has conceded only one goal in its last three matches. They also beat Osasuna 3-1 in the reverse back in January. 

Osasuna is right behind Athletic Club, in ninth place, but they are out of the mix for European football next season and honestly they should feel fortunate to be this high in the table. I say that based on their goal difference (-10) which is actually bottom eight in the league as of this writing. Osasuna is coming off three consecutive 1-1 draws, against Elche, Espanyol and Getafe, all of whom are in the bottom half of the table. Athletic Club has the third most xPts in the league at home this season and they’ve only conceded 35 times, tied for fourth fewest. Look for the hosts to pick up all three points here. 6* Athletic Club

10* Atalanta Goal Line (12:00 ET): There are implications for both sides in this matchup of traditional Serie A powers on Sunday. Obviously, AC Milan is looking to extend its lead (currently just two points) over Inter in the race for the Scudetto (league championship). Atalanta (currently) eighth is just trying to get in the mix for European football next season, something they have been a part of each of the last five seasons. I see the underdogs escaping with at least a point in this critical match. Just to be safe, play them on the goal line. 

Though they are tied with both Roma and Fiorentina for the sixth most points in Serie A (59), Atalanta has a negative head to head record vs. both of those European contenders, so right now they are on the outside looking in when it comes to continental football next season. With both Roma and Fiorentina taking on bottom of the table sides this weekend, picking up points here is a must for La Dea, who has the 5th best goal differential in the league right now (+20). I’m a little perplexed as to how they find themselves down in eighth place. They have 20 different goal scorers this season (most in Serie A) and have picked up the third most away points. I won with them last week as they easily beat Spezia by a final score of 3-1. 

Though in control for their first Scudetto in 11 years, AC Milan is actually just third in the league in both goal difference and xPts (expected points), so they should feel a little bit fortunate to be at the top of the table. They’ve won four straight Serie A matches, though one could argue they’ve been a little lucky to win all of the last three. They conceded the first goal of the match against both Lazio and Verona and against the former didn’t take the lead until stoppage time. Two weeks ago vs. Fiorentina, the lone goal of the match did not come until the 82nd minute. These are great odds on Atalanta here. 10* Atalanta (Goal Line)

9* Under Crystal Palace/Aston Villa (9:00 AM ET): Out of contention for the European places, but safe from relegation, it’s going to be a mid-table finish for both Crystal Palace and Aston Villa this Premier League season. I’d argue Crystal Palace is due to possibly move up a few spots, into the Top 10, before the season is complete as the Eagles actually boast the 7th highest xPts (expected points) total in the league right now. They have never finished higher than 10th in the English top flight (currently 11th w/ 44 points), so that is something to keep them motivated these last three fixtures. 

Aston Villa is just one point back of CP entering matchday 36, but they do have an inferior GD and the gap is much wider on xPts. But like CP, Villa has shown decent form down the stretch. We played them +1.5 earlier in the week against Liverpool and thanks to an early goal (3rd minute!), they were able to cash in what ended up being a 2-1 loss to one of the two best Premier League sides. Giving up the equalizer so quickly (sixth minute) was not ideal, but the game-winner for Liverpool didn’t come until the 65th minute. Note that in their previous three matches, Villa had conceded a total of just one goal, that coming in stoppage time vs. Burnley (when Villa was already ahead 3-0). 

Similarly, Crystal Palace has been stingy of late. They’ve conceded just two goals in the last four matches and they won for us (1-0 over Watford) last week. That makes it three in a row w/o a loss for the Eagles. I am expecting a low-scoring encounter on Sunday, not as free-wheeling as you might expect between two mid-table sides at this stage of the campaign. Both are hungry for that top half finish, so we won’t be seeing many goals at Villa Park. Palace is actually third from the bottom in xG (expected goals) on their travels this season. Four of the last five meetings have seen one - or both - sides fail to hit the scoresheet. 9* Under Crystal Palace/Aston Villa

6* Aleksandar Rakic (12:40 AM ET): This is the main event of tonight’s card, scheduled for five rounds in the UFC’s Light Heavyweight division. The winner is likely in line for a future title shot. Rakic is 14-2 overall in his MMA career, including 6-2 in UFC. Jan Blachowicz is 28-9 overall and 11-6 in UFC. To me, this is all about a surging contender (Rakic) against an opponent that’s likely past his prime (Blachowicz). I expect Rakic to get his hand raised here.

Rakic suffered his lone UFC loss back in Dec 2019 on a split decision to Volkan Oezdemir. Since then, he’s picked up B2B decision victories, defeating Anthony Smith in August of 2020 and Thiago Santos in March of last year. Both of those opponents were former LHW Title contenders. The only time in his career that Rakic has been stopped was in his very first professional fight, all the way back in 2019. Ten of his 14 wins have been by stoppage. Rakic would seem to have the edge in all phases of this matchup, particularly on the ground.

Blachowicz seems to be a pretty “trendy underdog’ here, which makes sense given that he’s a former champion at 205 lbs. But he’s coming off a loss, as he was submitted in the second round by Glover Teixera, to drop the LHW Title. Blachowicz is now 39 years of age and eventually “father time” will catch up with a fighter. I think that time is now for Blachowicz, who should struggle defending Rakic’s aggressive (and more powerful) striking combinations and versatile kicks. The odds tell you all you need to know about this matchup. 6* Aleksander Rakic

9* Under Blue Rays/Rays (6:10 ET): I think we’ve got a great value on the total in today’s Blue Jays-Rays matchup. Both teams are staring up at the Yankees in the AL East and figure to do so the rest of the way. Right now, not just the AL East, but the entire American League seems wide open as only five teams have positive run differentials and only six have winning records. Interestingly, these are two of the six, but neither has a positive run differential. Despite what, on paper, looks to be an “ugly” starting pitching matchup, I say to look for a lower-scoring game than anticipated here. 

It was 5-2 in the Rays’ favor last night. That was an Over though based on the closing number of 6.5. Six of Toronto’s last seven games have gone Over, even though they are batting a collective .216 during that stretch. The Rays have been even weaker at the plate over that stretch, hitting .212. Tampa Bay has seen three of its last four games go Over, but that includes giving up a ton of runs in two games vs. the Angels, who they are no longer facing. This being a divisional matchup, there’s more familiarity between the two clubs and that typically leads to lower-scoring games. It’s been pretty rare to see a total of 8.0 or higher for either of these two teams recently. 

Now a big reason for the inflated total is the two starting pitchers. Hyun-Jin Ryu was not good in either of his first two starts, giving up 11 runs in 7 ⅓ innings. But he hasn’t pitched in a month (was dealing with forearm inflammation). I’m looking for a far better outing here as Ryu has a 2.70 ERA in four previous trips to the mound vs. TB. Ryan Yarbrough had a bad first start of 2022 for the Rays, but then tossed five shutout innings vs. Seattle in his second (and most recent) start. He is 8-2 (with a 3.23 ERA) all-time vs. Toronto. The Under is 8-1-3 the L11 meetings between these two, including 7-1-1 here at Tropicana Field. 9* Under Blue Jays/Rays

10* Over Tigers/Orioles (4:10 ET): These are two of the perennial “also-rans” in the American League, but the Orioles aren’t half-bad in 2022. Well, they’re still 14-19 overall and did just lose last night 4-2 to the Tigers. But we’re talking about a ballclub that has been the worst in baseball over the last several seasons, losing 108+ games each of the L3 years that there have been 162 games played. Right now, it is Detroit that owns the worst record in the AL (10-23) even after Friday’s victory. 

I expect more runs to be scored in Saturday’s matinee. While the starting pitching matchup seems decent, from both teams' perspective, neither team is shy about giving up runs. Baltimore allows 5.2 runs per game on the road, so that alone makes this total seem VERY low. Detroit is not exactly a force offensively, but they do score more at home than they do on the road. They will face Bruce Zimmerman, who has been much improved for the O’s this season, with a 1.78 ERA and 1.121 WHIP. But I’m not at all convinced that will continue. Baltimore’s bullpen is also not very good. 

The Tigers turn to Michael Pineda as their Saturday starter. Like Zimmerman, Pineda is off to a better than expected start with a 3.43 ERA and 1.143 WHIP. All four of his starts have gone Under, but in two of them he received literally no run support (as in the Tigers were shutout). I don’t see that being the case here and Pineda did have a starter earlier this year where he allowed three home runs. 10* Over Tigers/Orioles

9* San Francisco (2:15 ET): Coming off an extraordinary 2021 season (where they finished +45.8 units), you’d think the Giants would regress a little bit in ‘22. But they’re still a profitable team in the early going (+4.0 units) and they enter the weekend riding a six-game win streak after winning here at Busch Stadium, 8-2, on Friday night. After getting a solid start from Logan Webb, the Giants poured it on late last night with five runs in the eighth inning. They now have the fourth best run differential in all of MLB and are clearly a top tier team again this season. 

St. Louis, meanwhile, has dropped five of six. They’d gotten off to a pretty strong start, but have now lost to the Giants three straight times, going back to the previous series in San Francisco. In between facing the Giants, the Cardinals lost two of three (at home!) to Baltimore. A big problem for the Redbirds right now, as you might suspect, is that they are just not scoring many runs. Friday marked the fourth time in five games that they scored three runs or fewer. 

It’ll be Jake Junis (for the Giants) vs. Dakota Hudson (for the Cards) in today’s starting pitching matchup. This is a rematch from last Sunday, a game the Giants won 4-3. Hudson was plagued by control issues, walking four (he had zero strikeouts) in 4 ⅔ IP and he ended up allowing three runs. Junis is making just his second start of the season here, but he’s also made appearances out of the bullpen. This play boils down to the fact that the Giants are healthier and hotter than they’ve been at any point this season. They are a great value on the ML today. 9* San Francisco

10* Union Berlin Goal Line (9:30 AM ET): It’s all in front of Union on the final matchday of the Bundesliga season. A win here would guarantee the Iron Ones a spot in next year’s Europa League and possibly their highest finish ever in the German top flight. It has been a breakout campaign for this side in 2021/22. Union comes into Saturday sixth in the table, only one point behind Freiburg and three behind fourth place Leipzig. Because of goal differential, Union has no chance of overtaking Leipzig for the fourth Champions League spot, but they’ll want to leave nothing to chance here as 7th place Koln sits just two points back with a relatively similar GD. I think Union will show no mercy on their opponents, who have no reason to be motivated for this fixture. 

Union is unbeaten over its last six Bundesliga matches. Ironically, the only one they didn’t win was against Greuther Furth, who sits at the bottom of the table, ready to be relegated. After that disappointing 1-1 draw, the Iron Ones stormed back to destroy Freiburg 4-1 last week, a massive result for both sides. Now if Freiburg fails to win this week at Leverkusen, Union can jump them into fifth with a win. I’m confident here that the favorite can win this one by multiple goals. 

A big reason for that confidence, as alluded to earlier, is that Bochum has absolutely NOTHING on the line here in this final matchday. Promoted back into the top flight this season, Bochum’s only goal was survival and they achieved that rather easily in what will be a mid-table finish. Bochum is coming off B2B victories, a 4-3 shocker over Dortmund (won on a late penalty after the equalizer came four minutes earlier), then an undeserved 2-1 result last week over relegation threatened Arminia Bielefeld on an 89th minute “own goal.” Their hosts on Saturday, with much to play for, will show no mercy and win by multiple goals. 10* Union Berlin  (Goal Line)

10* Under Grizzlies/Warriors (10:00 ET): Well, Game 5 DID go Over (as I predicted), just not in the manner that I thought it might. My thought was that it would be Golden State responding from a Game 4 performance where it shot just 40% overall and 24.3% from three-point range. Memphis was also due for a little three-point improvement itself (they shot 25.7% in Game 4). What actually happened though was the Grizzlies exploding for 134 points in a one-sided beatdown! Thus the series heads back to Golden State, with the Grizz still trailing three games to two. The Warriors are big favorites to close things out tonight at home, but I think the better play here is the Under. 

For the record, the Warriors DID improve their shooting in Game 5. They made five more threes than they did in Game 4, but wound up attempting their fewest number of shots in any game in the series (80) and had just 13 FT attempts (made 9). Other than their own offensive explosion (142 points) in Game 3, the Dubs have now been held to 101 pts or less in three of the last four games. So Memphis has done an excellent job defensively in this series. We’ve also yet to see B2B Overs. 

I don’t see the Grizzlies making 43.9% from behind the arc again as they did in Game 5. Of course, they are still without Ja Morant.  Even though the team is 21-6 SU when Morant sits this season, that doesn’t necessarily mean we should expect big points from them here. They won’t be at home tonight as they were in Game 5. Golden State is allowing just 103.2 PPG at home, second fewest in the league. Memphis had seven players finish in double figures Weds night, but none had more than 21. The Under is 4-1 the last five times the Warriors have been off a loss. With this being the lowest O/U of the series, the Over will be tempting to some. But not me. 10* Under Grizzlies/Warriors

9* Over Guardians/Twins (8:10 ET): Cleveland is dealing with a COVID outbreak and won’t have skipper Terry Francona on the bench Friday, nor most of the coaching staff. Pitching coach Carl Willis will manage the team this weekend. I was set to fade the Guardians on Wednesday when their game was postponed. That was due to the fact Aaron Civale was going to start. Civale will instead start tonight’s series opener vs. the Twins, who have been struggling at the plate including two shutout losses in their last three games. But Civale’s numbers indicate this is a spot where Minnesota can get back on track - at least offensively. 

Civale has a 9.45 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. All five of his starts have gone Over with the opposition combining to score 38 runs. That’s an average of more than 7.0 per game. Lately, things have gotten even worse for Civale as he has an 11.37 ERA and 1.736 WHIP in his L3 starts. Most of his struggles have been on the road where he has a 12.20 ERA and 2.227 WHIP in three outings. Yes, the Twins did only muster three totals runs in their last series and I cashed an Under bet on them yesterday. But they are no longer facing the Astros’ pitching staff. Cleveland is bottom six right now in runs allowed per game. 

But the surprising thing about the Guardians is that they are tied for fifth for most runs scored per game. Them and the woeful Reds, who have surrendered the most runs in all of baseball, are the only two teams to have seen 60% or more of their games go Over the total thus far. Here the Guardians’ lineup will face Sonny Gray, whose numbers look okay until you realize he’s only pitched 10 ⅓ innings. His walk rate is a concern and I expect him to struggle this evening. That will be a problem for the Twins as their bullpen is taxed right now. 9* Over Guardians/Twins

10* Under Brewers/Marlins (6:40 ET): We have two tremendous starting pitchers on the mound for this series opener between the Brewers and Marlins. The Brewers’ Corbin Burnes has seen five of his six starts stay Under the total (one push), due in no small part to the fact he is sporting a 1.86 ERA and 0.802 WHIP. For the Marlins, they’ve got Pablo Lopez, who has a 1.25 ERA and 0.889 WHIP. So, in other words, do not expect either team to come close to putting up the same number of runs they scored in their last game. 

Milwaukee just got done facing Cincinnati, which should have been an easy series, but instead they dropped two of three games in the Queen City. Shockingly, the Brewers’ staff allowed 28 runs in those three games including 14 in a wild loss on Wednesday. Normally, when you score 11 times against the Reds, that should be an automatic win. But alas, it was not for the Brew Crew on Wednesday. Note that while Miami also scored 11 runs on Weds (and I cashed them in a ML victory), eight of those came in the top of the ninth. Prior to that inning, the Marlins were on pace to score three runs or less for the sixth time in seven games.

Burnes won the NL Cy Young last season, in case you forgot. It would certainly appear as if he’s going to be in contention for that award again in 2022. He’s gone at least six innings in five straight starts while never allowing more than 2 ER. And there have been six or fewer total runs scored in four of those five contests. The Marlins have five regulars in their everyday lineup hitting under .220. Doesn’t sound optimal when facing Burnes. But Miami’s saving grace here could be Lopez, whose ERA is the lowest right now in the NL He’s allowed no runs in four of his last five starts and just went eight innings his last time out. The Brewers will be without DH McCutchen. 10* Under Brewers/Marlins

8* Dallas (9:30 ET): Top seed Phoenix is coming off a blowout win (110-80) and can close the series out with a win tonight. Problem is the Suns are 0-7 against the spread this season following a game where they allowed 90 points or less. The home team has yet to lose a game in this series (same with Miami-Philadelphia) and as previously mentioned by me, the big difference for Dallas when they are at home is their defense really improves (101.3 PPG allowed). They held the Suns to 94 and 101 points in the first two games here. I’m taking the points in Game 6 as the Mavs likely force a Game 7. 

As you’d expect from a team that scored only 80 points, the Mavs shot dreadfully on Tuesday night, making only 38% of their total field goal attempts, including 8 of 32 from three-point range. In Games 3 and 4 here at home, they shot around 44% overall (still not that great) but also made a total of 33 threes. I am expecting vast improvement from beyond the arc tonight. Outside of Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson, the rest of the Mavs scored only 31 points on 8 of 31 shooting in Game 5. As I say so often, role players typically perform much better at home. 

It should also be pointed out that in two of its three losses in this series, Dallas has largely been the better team in the first half. They led at halftime in Game 2 (lost by 20) and then were also up with three minutes to go in the first half in Game 5. The team is an outstanding 18-4 ATS this season after being held under 100 points the previous game (28-9 ATS L3 seasons). The season is on the line tonight, they are at home and without question will be better than they were Tuesday. 8* Dallas

8* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): The White Sox got an unexpected off-day on Wednesday when their game was postponed due to a COVID-19 outbreak within the Guardians’ organization. They’ll take it, but this has also been a hot team (won 7 of its last 8) heading into this big weekend series vs. the Yankees. I know New York has looked like the class of the American League thus far (22-8, +52 run differential), but tonight’s matchup favors Chicago, at home, with Dylan Cease on the hill. 

Cease has made six starts so far in 2022 and the White Sox are 5-1 in those games. He’s posted a 2.38 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, but recently has been even sharper, turning in a 1.50 ERA and 0.778 WHIP his L3 starts and all of those have been White Sox victories. At home, Cease has a 3–0 TSR, 1.45 ERA and 0.643 WHIP. So this is exactly who Chicago would want on the mound when getting set to face a team like the Yankees. Keep in mind that the White Sox “should” be on an eight-game streak right now; in their only loss during that stretch, they blew a six-run lead in the ninth inning. 

The Yankees have won 15 of their last 17 and are coming off a pair of wins over Toronto. But they had to come from behind both games to beat the Blue Jays. On Tuesday, it was a 3-run HR by Aaron Judge in the bottom of the ninth. Yesterday, they were actually outhit. Note that while the Yanks are 14-4 at home this season, they are “only” 8-4 on the road. This will be Luis’ Gil’s first start of the season at the big league level. He pitched down in the minors on Friday and allowed two runs in five innings. While the White Sox are rested, this will be the Yankees’ sixth game in the last five days. 8* Chi White Sox

10* Under Heat/76ers (7:05 ET): It’s do or die tonight for the 76ers, who are facing elimination after being blown out of the water Tuesday in Miami. They lost 120-85, shooting only 36.5% overall and 28.1% from three-point range. I made a terrible call taking the Sixers plus the points in that game, but will look to atone for it here by playing the Under. Yes, you should obviously expect Philadelphia to shoot better than it did in Game 5. But the road team has shot poorly in all five games in this series, so look for Miami to regress from its 53.6% shooting (13 of 33 from three) in the last game. 

In Games 3 and 4 here in Philadelphia, the Heat went a combined 14 of 65 from three-point range. That’s 21.5%. One of the games saw them finish with only 79 points as a team. Other than Jimmy Butler, no Miami player has been a factor offensively here in the city of Brotherly Love. Butler’s teammates combined to go just 25 of 62 (40%) in Game 4. In Game 3, they totaled only 46 points! Miami will be without Kyle Lowry again tonight. 

Miami’s defense, as expected, has been outstanding in this series. For the playoffs, the Heat are allowing just 98.2 PPG and the Under is 7-2. They’ve held the Sixers below 100 points in three of the five games, including twice since Joel Embiid has returned. Aside from Game 4, James Harden has been subpar, scoring 20 pts or less in the other four games. Philly has now been held below 100 in four of its last seven games. While it’s never happened in consecutive games, tonight may break that pattern. 10* Under Heat/76ers

9* Under Astros/Twins (3:10 ET): Houston is blistering hot right now, having won its last eight games. Now there’s a small chance that win streak could be over by the time this game gets underway. That’s due to the fact that yday’s game here in Minnesota was suspended (in the 4th inning) due to rain. Now it’s more likely that the Astros will be on a nine-game win streak when we get to the first pitch here as they are up 5-1 in the suspended game. Regardless of the result of the resumed game today, I like the Under here as the ‘Stros have allowed three runs or fewer in 10 consecutive games and 13 of the last 14! 

There’s a good chance that streak extends another game as well, considering the Twins have only one run on the board in the game that will be completed beforehand. Starting the “second” game for Houston will be Luis Garcia, who has certainly contributed to his team’s amazing pitching run by delivering B2B quality starts. Last time out, Garcia allowed only two runs (one unearned) and two hits over seven innings. He has a 1.80 ERA on the road and will be facing a Twins’ lineup that is still without Carlos Correa. Byron Buxton only returned yesterday (from a hip injury) and was 0 for 2 with a strikeout. 

Truly incredible is that the Houston pitching staff has posted four shutouts in the last eight games and has given up only eight runs total! So Minnesota is going to need a strong outing here and I think they get it from Josh Winder, who has yet to allow an earned run. A rookie that the Astros have never seen before, Winder’s first two career starts have seen him allow only five hits in 12 IP. Minnesota is only allowing 2.8 rpg at home thus far and opponents are batting just .200. It’s not like Houston has been scoring a ton during its win streak; only once have they topped five runs and they’ve scored three or less in 6 of their L10 games. Look for a low-scoring battle here. 9* Under Astros/Twins

9* Over Mets/Nationals (1:05 ET): After going Under each of their L3 head to head meetings, the Mets & Nationals finally combined to go Over last night. The final score was 8-3 (Nats won) and interestingly enough all 11 runs were scored in the first two innings. We may not get that kind of explosive start at the plate this afternoon, but there are two struggling starters on the mound and by the end of the game, I expect the Over to hit again. 

Taijuan Walker is the Mets starter and he comes in with a 4.91 ERA and 1.364 WHIP. What is crazy is that all three starts have come against the Phillies! Walker was really roughed up his last time out, allowing seven runs (six earned) in just four innings of work. He allowed two home runs as well. Walker had previously allowed no runs this year, but those first two starts vs. the Phillies had spanned only seven innings. I know the Washington lineup had struggled at home so far, but yesterday was a positive sign and they are hitting righties well in the month of May. Walker has a 5.24 ERA in four previous starts vs. the Nats. The Mets’ bullpen is taxed after heavy usage yesterday (starter Megill lasted only 1 ⅓ innings. 

The Mets need a win today to avoid what would be their first series loss of 2022. Yesterday’s defeat marked just the third time they lost a game by 5+ runs. The offense should do better here against Joan Adon, who has really struggled in his six starts this year. Adon has a 6.99 ERA and 1.659 WHIP this season and he’s 0-3 w/ a 8.31 ERA and 1.692 WHIP his L3 starts. The Mets had their chances to score after the 1st inning yday, but went 2 for 8 with RISP and left seven runners on base. Adon’s 1st start of 2022 came against the Mets and he allowed four runs in 4 ⅓ innings. 9* Over Mets/Nationals

10* Over Warriors/Grizzlies (9:30 ET): So Grizzlies’ star point guard Ja Morant has a bone bruise and a playoff return is looking unlikely. That’s basically a “death knell” for a Memphis team already facing elimination Weds night. Without Morant, the Grizz turned in a “game” effort in Game 4 @ Golden State, but came up three points shy (101-98) and are now facing a 3-1 series deficit. The Warriors were probably already the better team (been favored in every game) even with a healthy Morant available. Certainly, the expectation will be for the Dubs to close things out here. But I think the better play is the Over.

You may recall that I last played the Over in this series back in Game 1. It hit rather easily, going Over despite the number being bet up several points. Oddsmakers set the O/U line way too low for that series opener and the public made them pay. But they evidently learned their lesson as the O/U line opened 227.5 for Game 2. Two of the last three games have stayed Under, including Game 4 (when I had the Under). I didn’t think the oddsmakers adjusted enough for Morant’s absence in Game 4, but now it seems as if we’ve got an overcorrection as this will be the lowest O/U for any game in the series. 

The last game stayed way Under (by 23 points) as both teams struggled from three-point range. It was a combined 18 of 72 (25%). From the start, it was obvious the game was going to stay Under. Only 79 total points were scored in the 1H and 131 through three quarters. Given Golden State shot 63.1% overall in the previous game and 53% from three-point range, it was obvious they would regress Monday, but along those same lines, we should see vast improvement for Game 5. Memphis is due to shoot the ball better as well as I don’t expect them to go down without a fight, at home. 10* Over Warriors/Grizzlies

10* Miami (3:40 ET): While I’m 2 for 2 in the Guardians-White Sox series this week (with a win on each team), I’m 0 for 2 in this Marlins-D’Backs series, losing with the road team both times. My rationale for backing Miami in the first two games was that a) they had revenge for a prior sweep against Arizona and b) they are far better than their record indicates as a MLB-high 10 one-run losses clouds the fact the Marlins have outscored the opposition this year. Arizona, even after winning 9 of its last 11 games (including 9-3 last night) still is sporting a negative run differential on the young season. I’ll try with Miami one more time in the series finale Weds afternoon. 

Yesterday was not only Miami’s worst loss since April 16th, but also the first time they lost a game by more than one run going back to May 1st. Their previous four losses to the D’backs had all been by one run as had their previous six losses overall. The Marlins even opened the scoring last night, getting two runs in the top of the first on a Jose Soler home run. But they wouldn’t score again until the ninth and by that point, it was “all over but the shouting.” Starter Jesus Luzardo was not good yday, but I am expecting a better outing from today’s starter, Sandy Alcantara, who has allowed 2 ER or less in five of his six starts thus far. 

Arizona had the worst record in the National League last season, but has gotten shockingly great pitching the last two weeks or so. Three starters have ERAs below 2.00 and one of them - Merrill Kelly - goes this afternoon. Like Alcantara, Kelly did NOT pitch in the previous series between these teams. Kelly came one out shy of a complete game his last time out (vs. Colorado) where he gave up just one run. But I simply think he and his team are “due” to drop one today. As a team, the D’backs are hitting just .185 at home this year! 10* Miami

7* Chelsea (2:30 ET): I’m a little shocked at two things here. (1) that Chelsea STILL hasn’t clinched a Champions League spot for next season and (2) that they are available at such a cheap price here (needing only a win) over relegation-threatened Leeds United. Chelsea still sits third in the table, a finish that has been considered a formality for a while now, but their lead over fourth place Arsenal is down to a single point, thanks to their winless run reaching three matches after LW’s 2-2 draw with Wolverhampton. And fifth place Tottenham is only five points behind.

Chelsea very much look poised to take all three points from the Wolves last week. They jumped out to a two-goal lead right after halftime, scoring twice in three minutes (including a penalty). But after conceding in the 79th minute, the Blues gave up the late equalizer (in the 7th minute of stoppage time) and had to share the points. I know the FA Cup Final (vs. Liverpool) looms this weekend, but with new ownership and their grip on a Champions League place that was once considered a lock, I see Thomas Tuchel’s side rising up Wednesday and getting all three points.

Chelsea hasn’t been as stingy as they were last season, but they’ve still conceded the third fewest number of goals in the league this season. Meanwhile, Wednesday’s opposition has conceded the second most goals (74), more than double what Chelsea has allowed. Leeds also has the third worst GD (-35) in the league, so their current place is very much deserved. Both Everton and Burnley have passed them, leaving the Whites in the relegation zone (with three tough matches left to play) and Everton has a match in hand. Leeds is now the favorite to join Watford and Norwich City as the three teams heading back to the Championship next season. They’ve conceded at least a goal in each of their L10 home matches. 7* Chelsea

10* Dallas (10:00 ET): Both of Tuesday’s series have seen the underdog storm back to even the series at two games apiece. In both instances, the home team has also won all four games. In this one, most were writing Dallas off entering Game 3, but not me as I cashed the Mavs last Friday (10* Game of the Week) as they won 103-94. Then in Game 4, I was holding an Under ticket and had to sweat that out. Scoring plummeted in the second half (thankfully) and that Under bet was a winner by three points. I’m 3-0 in the series as I had the Over in Game 1. Now for the first time I’ll “repeat” a previous bet and take the Mavs (plus the points) in Game 5.

Dallas has led at the half each of the last three games and really dominated the last two from wire to wire. Now I realize the series now moves back to Phoenix, a place where the Mavs have not won in three years. But I think the defense and three-point shooting we saw in the two home games can “travel.” Again, this is a team that took two of three games in the first round vs. Utah without Luka Doncic. Phoenix was overdue for a “correction” in the shooting department after making 50% or better in each of the first eight playoff games. Sure enough, Dallas held them to 44.7% and 46.4% in the L2 games. The Suns made only nine threes in Game 4, which was also overdue. 

Shockingly poor play from Chris Paul also contributed to the two Mavs’ wins. Paul had seven turnovers in Game 3 then committed four first half fouls in Game 4. He played less than four minutes in the second half. Obviously, that’s unlikely to happen again here. But this just seems like too many points to lay in what should be a closely contested matchup. Looking at the betting percentages, the Suns have the look of a very “public” side in Game 5 and a team you’d want to fade. Dallas has seized the “momentum” and is 42-18-1 ATS its last 61 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of .600 or greater. 10* Dallas

9* Miami (9:40 ET): I’ll try with the Marlins again Tuesday as they are now 0-4 head to head vs. the D’backs in 2022. It’s been some “tough luck” for the Fish in recent days. Their last four losses have all been by exactly one run, including a brutal 3-2 result on Sunday vs. San Diego when they lost on a three-run walkoff HR (with two outs) in the bottom of the ninth inning. I was fortunate enough to have them +1.5 in that game, but the run line simply wasn’t an option yesterday as they fell 4-3 to Arizona. Fortunately, I’m pretty confident that they WILL win tonight as this losing streak to the D’backs can’t possibly continue. 

As I’ve said each of the L2 days, the Marlins are better than their record as they have a positive run differential on the year. They are also still 3-0 as road favorites of -125 to -175 this season as they ended up closing as underdogs on the ML for last night’s game. A big reason that they are favored here is Jesus Luzardo, who has been excellent thus far with a 3.08 ERA and 1.063 WHIP. Luzardo has allowed 2 ER or less four times and is coming off B2B quality outings where he’s allowed only five hits in 12 IP. Unfortunately two were HR’s last time out and Miami lost that game 2-1. 

Despite that hard luck effort and Miami’s recent hard luck as a whole, expect them to get the win today. Madison Bumgarner simply can’t be trusted at this stage of his career for the Diamondbacks. He was ejected in the first inning of his last start and hasn’t gone longer than five innings this season. All four Arizona wins over Miami this season have been by one run, so the head to head record is quite misleading. Despite winning 10 of 13, the D’backs still have a negative run differential on the year (-11) and are in last place in the rugged NL West. I simply think Miami is a better team. 9* Miami

6* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): The White Sox saw their six-game win streak end Monday in the most shocking of manners as they blew a six-run lead in the top of the ninth and lost 12-9 in 10 innings. Now it was a bit of a strange game as the White Sox only managed to collect seven hits, but drew seven walks, which really helped the offensive output. But it still wasn’t enough as Cleveland’s Josh Naylor became the first player in MLB history to collect eight RBI’s in the eighth inning or later (he hit the game-tying grand slam in the top of the ninth) to stun the South Side faithful. The loss dropped the White Sox to 0-4 vs. the Guardians this season. 

Now I was obviously happy about last night’s result as I had Cleveland (+1.5)  on the run line. But you’ve got to think the home team bounces back tonight. Yesterday was actually the most runs scored in a game by the White Sox since a 10-1 win over the Tigers on April 10th. While I noted Cleveland’s superior offensive numbers in yday’s analysis, look for Lucas Giolito to keep them in check tonight. Giolito had a season-best 10 strikeouts in a 4-3 win over the Cubs last Wednesday. That was his first win of 2022, but he’s also yet to allow more than 3 ER in any outing. 

Monday’s loss obviously rests squarely with the White Sox bullpen. Hopefully that group doesn’t let us down here. I don’t think that they will as the club has been very profitable, historically speaking, as a big home favorite. They are 71-33 L104 as home chalk here at Guaranteed Rate Field and that includes 25-12 mark when -175 to -250 on the ML. I’m aware that Cleveland starter Cal Quantrill has excellent career numbers vs. Chicago (0.89 ERA), but he’s also never beaten them (seven appearances, three starts). The White Sox offense is due to get going and they obviously “should have” won last night. 6* Chi White Sox

8* Philadelphia (7:30 ET): All of a sudden, we’ve got a series on our hands as the Sixers won both games at home to even the series up at two games apiece. Now Miami is still favored, in this game and the series, as it still possesses the homecourt edge. The Heat endured two brutal shooting games in Philadelphia, making only 14 of 65 attempts from behind the three-point line. Compare that to the 76ers, who were 16 of 33 (48.5%) in both games. While you’ve got to expect better three-point shooting from Miami (the #1 three-point shooting team in the reg season) at home, it’s pretty clear to me that the series has changed dramatically since Joel Embiid returned. Take the points in Game 5. 

You also can’t understate the performance Philadelphia got from James Harden in Game 4. Harden scored 31, after averaging only 17.6 PPG in Gms 1-3, and hit the critical three in the 4Q. Embiid had 24 points and 11 rebounds, his second “double-double” in as many games since returning from injury. The other three starters also all scored in double figures. Both Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris have proven that they can be consistent contributors offensively. If you’re thinking leaving Philadelphia will substantially hurt the Sixers, think again. Yes, they lost Games 1 & 2 here. But they actually have a better SU record on the road (29-17) than at home (28-18) this season. 

While Philly likely has the two best players in its ranks and is getting a variety of contributions offensively, Miami isn’t getting much beyond Jimmy Butler right now. Butler has seen his scoring go up in every game this series and had 40 pts in Game 4. But the rest of the team went just 25 of 62 (40%) from the field. In Game 3, Butler had 33 pts and the rest of the team scored just 46. Kyle Lowry has been a non-factor since coming back from injury while Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro have both been inconsistent. While the home team has won all four games in this series, the Heat have only outscored the Sixers by two points. I’m expecting a close one on Tuesday and will be taking the points with the hotter team. 8* Philadelphia

7* Aston Villa Goal Line (3:00 ET): First off, please note I’m taking Aston Villa on the goal line. So a win by them, a draw or 1-goal loss would all equal a winning ticket! Liverpool’s chances of winning the Premier League title took a serious hit last week when they ended up sharing the points with Tottenham (1-1 draw) and Man City thrashed Newcastle 5-0. Those results leave the Reds three points back in the chase for the EPL title. So a win here would bring them level, although Man City still has a match in hand. 

Keep in mind though that this is a busy time for Liverpool as they seek to become the first English side EVER to win a “quadruple” (EPL, Carabao Cup, FA Cup, Champions League). They’ve already bagged the Carabao Cup, but sweeping the other three pieces of hardware now looks exceedingly tough. Man City no longer is involved in the Champions League, so their full attention is on the EPL. Liverpool’s opponent in the UCL Final, Real Madrid, has the La Liga title all wrapped up and thus can turn its full attention to being champions of Europe. On top of that, Liverpool must face Chelsea this weekend in the FA Cup final. All things considered, I just can’t see the Reds winning today (on the road) by more than one goal. 

Aston Villa enters Tuesday’s fixture on a three-match unbeaten streak, including B2B wins over Norwich City and Burnley. Those are obviously bottom of the table sides, but let us not forget what happened the last time the Lions hosted Liverpool in league play. It was a 7-2 thrashing by them! Now Liverpool has since avenged that defeat with three wins over Villa, but it’s fair to question the motivation and tactics of Jurgen Klopp’s side today. Aston Villa still has hopes of a top half finish this season and like I said earlier, they’ll keep this one within a goal (at worst). 7* Aston Villa (Goal Line)

8* Under Grizzlies/Warriors (10:00 ET): Well this series has certainly taken a nasty turn, with hard fouls and injuries defining the last two games. In Game 2, it was the Grizzlies’ Dillon Brooks’ hard foul on the Warriors’ Gary Payton II (out indefinitely) taking two players out of the Game 3 proceedings (Brooks was suspended). Brooks will return for Game 4, but unfortunately for Memphis, Ja Morant is now questionable after the Warriors’ Jordan Poole appeared to grab his knee, re-injuring it. Whether or not Morant ends up playing on Monday, I like the Under here.

Certainly, Golden State will not be replicating its Game 3 shooting, which had them at a blistering 63.1% overall and 53.1% from three-point range. If you recall from my Game 3 analysis, I called for the Warriors to regain their shooting touch after they shot a poor 42.1% overall in the Game 2 loss, which included 7 of 38 from three, a franchise record for futility. But even I, as someone holding a ticket on the Dubs minus the points in Game 3, did not expect what we ended up getting. The team finished with 142 points and made 17 threes. Their overall and “true” shooting percentage for the game were both the second highest in NBA Playoff history.

According to his head coach Taylor Jenkins, there’s “probably a really good chance” that Morant doesn’t play in Game 4. That would obviously be a significant loss for Memphis offensively. Morant was Top 10 in points per game in the regular season and was also leading the league in assists per game here in the playoffs. Even if he does somehow manage to play, Morant clearly will not be the same. With the Grizzlies likely without their best player (and one of the top scorers in the league) and the Warriors’ shooting certain to regress, I think the Under is a pretty easy call here in Game 4. These were two of the top four teams in defensive efficiency during the regular season (GSW #1) and the Dubs allow only 103.4 PPG at home.  8* Under Grizzlies/Warriors

9* Miami (9:40 ET): It’s been a very frustrating stretch of late for the Marlins. All three losses in San Diego over the weekend were by exactly one-run, including a BRUTAL result on Sunday where the Padres walked-off with a pinch-hit, three-run HR with two outs in the bottom of the ninth. Now that didn’t bother me as I wisely bet Miami on the run line (+1.5), so I still won. The series before that saw the Marlins get swept at home by Arizona. They get a chance at avenging that Monday and hopefully erasing the painful result on Sunday as well.

Remember that Miami beat San Diego 8-0 on Saturday. This team still has a positive run differential (+8) on the year despite its 13-15 WL record. Their nine one-run losses so far are easily MLB’s most. So what I am saying here is that the Marlins are better than their record. I like their chances at gaining a measure of revenge against the D’backs Monday as all three losses to them at home were by … exactly one run. It’s interesting that Arizona, despite winning five of six to get over .500, still have a -12 YTD run differential.

Elieser Hernandez toes the rubber for Miami in the series opener. He hasn’t had the greatest start to 2022 and did give up all five runs in the 5-4 loss to the D’backs last week. But that was Hernandez’s shortest outing thus far and I’m expecting better tonight. This time he’ll be opposed by Humberto Castellanos, who threw 5 ⅔ shutout innings in Miami last week. But the start before that, Castellanos allowed five runs in two innings. The Marlins were -155 or higher for all three games in the last series. Yes, now they’re on the road. But we’re getting a good price on this matchup. They are 3-0 this season as road favorites of -125 to -175 on the ML. 9* Miami 

8* Run Line Cleveland (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Guardians +1.5. The White Sox come into this series on a six-game win streak. This despite having not scored more than four runs in any of those games! Clearly, the offense isn’t producing as much as you’d like to see, but the team is obviously getting exemplary pitching. The White Sox have allowed a total of just NINE runs during their six-game win streak. However, with Cleveland’s ability to score runs (#2 in AL) and the fact they swept Chicago the last series between these teams, going with the RL here seems like sound strategy. 

The previous series occurred in Cleveland and the White Sox didn’t do much scoring there either. They put up only five runs in the three games. Even after the six straight wins, the last three of which came in Boston, Chicago is still only averaging 3.2 runs per game. They are hitting just .214 at home and eventually the string of strong pitching performances is going to run out. Starting Monday’s game will be Michael Kopech, who still has yet to record a decision after five previous outings. He did not face Cleveland in the previous series nor has he lasted more than five innings in any start. 

Coming off B2B wins over Toronto, the Guardians will turn to Zach Plesac tonight. Plesac has had a bit of a rough beginning to 2022, but his best outing (by far) came against the White Sox on 4/21 when he went 6 ⅔ innings and gave up just two runs (one unearned). Something else I find interesting about this AL Central matchup is the Guardians have a +10 run differential. The White Sox, who are one ahead in the loss column, have a -13 run differential. Cleveland puts up 4.9 runs per game on the road and that’s all they may need here, especially when factoring in the RL. 8* Run Line Cleveland (+1.5)

10* Over Celtics/Bucks (7:30 ET): My NBA Playoff record has been pretty good thus far, but admittedly it would be even better if not for some stubbornness when it comes to choosing the Over in this particular series. It’s been flawed logic (to this point) waiting for the “roulette wheel to come up red” as all seven Bucks’ games this postseason have stayed Under. Oddsmakers have been scrambling to adjust as we’ve gone from a closing O/U line of 230.5 for Game 1 of the first round series (vs. Chicago) to a closing O/U line of 212 for the last game of this series. With every game, the O/U line has dropped. 

 My thought process, flawed as it has been, is that we’re getting value with the O/U line decreasing so much. As a reminder, Milwaukee led the Eastern Conference in scoring (115.5 PPG) during the regular season. But it has been their incredible DEFENSIVE efficiency rating (96.1) that has carried them throughout the playoffs. Consider that the #2 team (Miami) has a postseason defensive efficiency rating of 103.0. Boston isn’t too shabby defensively in its own right, ranking third in postseason defensive efficiency rating and second in the regular season. But, interestingly enough, this is the first time in the series we’ve seen a clear influx of early money coming in on the Over. 

That’s easy to understand. Whereas Boston shot horribly in Game 1 (33.3% overall) and Milwaukee shot horribly in Game 2 (3 of 18 from three-point range), BOTH teams were bad from the floor in Game 3. The Celtics were back down to 36.8% overall while the Bucks weren’t much better (at 40.4%). The teams combined to shoot 18 of 67 (26.8%) from behind the arc. I expect improvement across the board in the shooting department - from both teams - here in Game 4. Scoring has jumped in every game, from 190 in Game 1 to 195 in Game 2 to 204 in Game 3. Another jump comes here and we FINALLY cash that elusive Over ticket on Milwaukee. 10* Over Celtics/Bucks

10* Kansas City (12:05 ET): These two American League also-rans split a doubleheader on Sunday and will now wrap up their three-game series early Monday. It’s very rare to see Baltimore check in as a favorite on the ML, though they were for the game they won yesterday. What I see here is an opportunity to fade one of the worst teams in all of MLB at a nice price. Consider that over the last three seasons, the Orioles have been home favorites of -125 to -175 all of FIVE times. They’ve lost four of those games. It’s not like Camden Yards will provide much “homefield advantage” today. On a Monday afternoon, there figures to be only a few thousand people in the park, tops. 

Kansas City has the worst run differential in the AL right now (-39) and third worst overall (only Pirates & Reds worse). But consider that they had to face the Yankees and the Cardinals in their two series before this one. This is an opportunity to win a series for just the second time this season. The only series that the Royals have won so far was at home vs. Minnesota (took two of three). They send Carlos Hernandez to the bump on Monday. While it’s been a bit of a difficult start to the season, Hernandez has had prior success vs. Baltimore, posting a 1.80 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in a pair of starts last season.

Interestingly, eight of KC’s nine wins have come against right-handed starters. They face righty Tyler Wells today. Wells has an 0-5 team start record and while he’s pitched somewhat better of late, he’s yet to go longer than five innings. In four of Wells’ five previous starts, the Orioles have been held to two runs or fewer. Again, I come back to the notion of being able to fade Baltimore at ‘plus money.’ They’ve allowed the same number of runs as Kansas City has this season and I’m not buying the O’s recent “improved” play. Go with the road team in this one. 10* Kansas City

9* Run Line Chi Cubs (7:08 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Cubs +1.5. They were swept in Saturday’s doubleheader (outscored 13-2) and obviously are up against arguably the best team in all of baseball. But I think the home team can avoid the sweep tonight, or at the very worst lose by just a run. 

Marcus Stroman will be starting this game for the Cubbies. He faces a fearsome Dodgers lineup, but has a 1.096 WHIP his L3 starts after tossing seven shutout innings of two-hit ball his last time out. The Cubs won that game 2-0 as +205 ML underdogs over Milwaukee. So Stroman has pulled off a huge upset before. He’s actually off B2B quality starts, both on the road. I know the team has been slumping recently, but Stroman absolutely gives them a chance Sunday night. It’s worth noting that the Dodgers only had three hits in Game 2 yesterday, benefiting from nine walks and some cluster luck. 

You also have to think that rookie Seiya Suzuki will start to return to early season form for the Cubs. Suzuki began the year hitting at a torrid clip, producing an OBP over .500 and OPS over 1.200. He’s been in a slump ever since that 21-0 win over the Pirates. Assuming he turns it around, the Cubs’ offense should be in good shape, even against someone like Walker Buehler, who has admittedly been lights out for the Dodgers. One thing I noticed with LA is that they are only 4-3 so far as road favorites of -175 or more and one of the wins came yesterday. 9* Run Line Chi Cubs (+1.5)

7* Run Line Miami (4:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Marlins +1.5. This bet would have cashed in each of the first three games of this series as Miami lost by just one run in each of the first two games, then pulled away late for a commanding 8-0 victory on Saturday. Despite currently being a game under .500, the Marlins have a positive run differential (+9), which isn’t all that far off from the Padres’ +14. Obviously, yesterday’s result heavily factors into the “closeness” of the two run differentials. But I believe these teams are a lot more evenly matched than the ML odds suggest. 

San Diego’s Joe Musgrove has gotten off to a tremendous start to the season as he’s 4-0 (5-0 TSR) with a 1.97 ERA and 0.906 WHIP. But as we saw yesterday, the Padres’ bullpen leaves a lot to be desired. It gave up five runs in the top of the ninth, which essentially sealed the game. The Miami offense has actually hit pretty well on the road against right-handers, so don’t be surprised if they can get to Musgrove early. Musgrove has certainly benefited from facing the Reds (twice) and the Pirates (MLB’s two worst teams) over his L3 starts. 

Saturday marked the first time this season that San Diego was shut out as Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer rank 1-2 in MLB in both batting average and on base percentage. But remember this lineup continues to be without Fernando Tatis Jr and it is hitting a collective .205 at home so far. The Padres have only mustered five runs in the first three games of the series. One of those runs was unearned and they’ve had just five hits in each of the three games. No one in the bottom five of the order is hitting .200 the L2 games. So look for Marlins’ starter Trevor Rogers, last year’s NL Rookie of the Year, to turn things around here. Rogers has a 1.69 ERA and 1.062 WHIP on the road thus far. 7* Run Line Miami (+1.5)

10* Under Suns/Mavericks (3:30 ET): Phoenix probably cannot continue to shoot as well from three-point range as they have so far in this series (45.6%), especially considering they are up against a Dallas team that only allows 101.3 PPG at home this season. Sure enough, the Mavs held the Suns to only 94 points in Game 3, picking up their first win of the series. I’m expecting another strong effort from the home team at the defensive end of the floor today, considering the most points they’ve allowed in any of their four home playoff games so far is 104.

Yet the Mavs have scored 103 or less themselves in more than half of their own postseason games. It’s just 210.2 total PPG scored in Mavs’ playoff games. They held Utah, who was tied for the most efficient offense in the regular season, below 100 PPG. Phoenix shot the lights out in Games 1 & 2 (particularly Gm 2), but then here in Dallas, the Mavs returned to their stingy ways. The Suns were still 13 of 28 from three-point range, but made far less shots overall compared to the first two games. 

I should also point out how, in the regular season, Dallas played at the slowest tempo in the league. Game 3 was Phoenix’s lowest-scoring effort of the season, but something else that deserves to be pointed out is how they are 7-1 Under this season after being held below 100 points in the previous game. It’s not just three-point regression that should be in store for the Suns. They are shooting 52.6% overall in the playoffs, up from 48.8% for the season. The Under is 30-14 in all Dallas’ home games this season. 10* Under Suns/Mavericks

6* Atalanta (6:30 AM ET): The four Champions League spots in Serie A have already been clinched (Inter,  AC Milan, Napoli, Juventus) for next season, but with two of those sides (Inter & Juventus) set to meet in Wednesday’s Coppa Italia Final, that means the league’s Europa League berth will be passed down to the sixth place team and seventh will head to the Europa Conference League. The added European place is a massive relief to Atalanta, who is currently languishing in eighth, behind Fiorentina based on head to head points. One would have to go back to 2016/17 to find the last season La Dea was not involved in some sort of European football.

Atalanta has certainly floundered down the stretch, winning only one of its last eight matches and that lone victory came at the hands of last place and relegation-bound Venezia. But this is a favorable fixture on Sunday against Spezia, who seems assured of safety (from relegation) and that was the main goal for them this season. Atalanta has done well on their travels this season, earning the third most away points in the league. Only AC Milan and Napoli have more. Monday’s 1-1 draw with Salernitana was incredibly disappointing, but still only three points separate Atalanta from fifth place (as of this writing), so a win would be huge here, especially with Roma playing Fiorentina Monday, as it would guarantee La Dea picks up points on one of the three sides they are chasing.

Spezia is a deserved bottom five side in Serie A this season as they are tied for the second most losses (20). They have picked up only three points at home against teams in the top half of the table and last week brought a brutal 4-3 loss to Lazio as three times Spezia squandered a one-goal lead, then they gave up the game-winner in the 90th minute. That will be difficult to get over and I just can’t see the favorites not picking up all three points on Sunday. 6* Atalanta

6* Rose Namajunas (11:59 ET): This is the semi-main event of UFC 274, which means it will go on second to last on the main card. The fight is scheduled for five rounds in the Womens’ Strawweight Division (115lbs) between Champion Rose Namajunas (11-4 overall, 9-3 in UFC) and Challenger Carla Esparza (18-6, 9-4). It is a rematch from 2014, a fight won by Esparza. However, Namajunas is a perfect 4-0 in her career in UFC rematches. I think she gets her hand raised Saturday night.

The first fight between these two women determined the first ever UFC Womens’ Strawweight Champion. Esparza won by submission (rear-naked choke) in the third round, however her reign would be a short one as she lost the title in her very first defense (to Joanna Jedrzejczk) and would go on to go just 3-3 over her next six fights. However, Esparza has since turned things around with a five-fight win streak that dates back to 2019. She last fought in May of last year, defeating Xiaonan Yan via TKO in the second round. However, her previous four wins were all by decision and two of them were split. So it’s hardly been a dominant run by the challenger. 

Namajunas has lost only one time in her last seven fights and that was to Jessica Andrade, a defeat she immediately avenged. She is coming off B2B wins over Weili Zhang, the last of which was a split decision in November. The champ has the edge both in striking and in submissions while wrestling is the challenger’s game. That first fight was so long ago that I put little stock into it at this point as Namajunas is clearly the better fighter now (reflected in the odds). Esparza has never gone longer than three rounds, which means she’s at a disadvantage if this fight goes long. It may not though as Namajunas could easily end this early with her superior striking. 6* Rose Namajunas

8* Golden State (8:30 ET): The Warriors were able to wrest home court advantage away from the Grizzlies, taking Game 1 by a score of 117-116. Having bet the Over, that result sat well with me. I sat out Game 2 (no play), which was won by Memphis 106-101 and not without controversy. Dillon Brooks injuring Gary Payton II has resulted in BOTH players being out for Game 3 (Brooks is suspended). We saw both home teams come out fired up last night in NBA playoff action and though not down 0-2 in the series like the Sixers & Mavs, I expect the Warriors to come out just as fired up here. 

Another difference between the Dubs and last night’s home sides is that we are having to lay points. Not a concern of mine as they are, in my estimation, clearly the better team here. Memphis was fortunate to advance out of the first round, let alone take the series in six games, They overcame double-digit deficits in the fourth quarter in three of those wins. Losing Brooks is going to be significant as he had three 23+ point games vs. the Timberwolves. I also don’t see Ja Morant matching his Game 2 production (47 points) tonight as he made more threes on Tuesday (five) than he did in the entire first round series (four). 

Speaking of three-point shooting, the Warriors were historically bad in Game 2, making only 18.4 percent. It was the worst three-point shooting performance in the playoffs in franchise history. Klay Thompson was 2 for 12 while Steph Curry was 3 for 11. To say they’ll improve dramatically tonight seems like an obvious statement. Memphis, despite Morant’s 47 points, didn’t shoot that well either in the last game. But Golden State clearly has more room for improvement here and they are 34-10 SU at home (3-0 in Rd 1), outscoring visiting teams by more than 10 PPG on the year. They’ve held the rebounding edge in both games. 8* Golden State

10* Over Celtics/Bucks (3:30 ET): This series heads back to Milwaukee with the teams tied 1-1. Both picked up their respective wins in fairly dominant fashion. The Bucks rolled in Game 1, 101-89, snapping a 9-game ATS losing streak to the Celtics. As expected both teams shot better overall in Game 2 (46.6% for Milwaukee, 47.5% for Boston), but the Bucks were doomed by going 3 of 18 from three-point range (16.7%). Boston made more threes (20) than Milwaukee even attempted and the incredible +51 point edge the Celtics enjoyed from beyond the arc essentially guaranteed victory. The final score was 109-86.

The Under is now 7-0 in Milwaukee playoff games. Oddsmakers continue to drop the total, which was 230.5 for Game 1 of their first round series (vs. Chicago), if you can believe that. We’re now down to 212.5 (as of press time). Barring some kind of massive wave of Over money on this game (which I do not anticipate), this will be the eighth straight Bucks’ game where the O/U line is lower than the previous one. Considering they were the highest scoring team in the Eastern Conference during the regular season, I feel the Over is now inevitable. I know I’ve been saying that for awhile now, but this is poised to be the lowest O/U line for any Bucks’ game since before X-Mas!

Bucks’ games still average 225.6 points this season, even with the run of postseason Unders. Celtics’ games average 215.9, so this number is below that. I know both teams are capable of playing great defense, but there is simply no way Milwaukee isn’t going to see a dramatic increase in three-point shooting from Game 2, similar to what we saw with Boston in Game 2 after they shot a woeful 33.3% overall in Game 1. The Celtics have made 38 three-pointers in the first two games. The teams will have had three days off between games when they take the court Saturday. Boston games have averaged 226 PPG in that situation this year while Milwaukee games have averaged 221.1. 10* Over Celtics/Bucks

8* Crystal Palace (10:00 AM ET): We’ve hit the final month of the Premier League season. Justifiably so, most of the attention right now is being paid to the race for the top spot (Man City vs. Liverpool), top four (Arsenal vs. Tottenham) and relegation (Leeds/Burnley/Everton). But staring at the table, one thing that sticks out to me is Crystal Palace should be higher. They have +3 YTD goal differential this season, better than any of the four sides directly above them and if you’re looking for more advanced metrics, the Eagles are 8th in the league in xPts. A top 10 finish is still possible and something they’ll be hungry for. 

Watford is almost certain to be relegated at this point as they would need to win out to have any chance at avoiding being condemned. That’s just not going to happen as their inevitable fate was all but confirmed by last week’s brutal 2-1 result against Burnley. After opening the scoring in the eighth minute, the Hornets still led 1-0 in the 83rd minute, which is when disaster struck. They proceeded to concede twice over the next four minutes and lose a critical home match, the result sending Burnley 12 points up. Even worse for Watford is that Everton also upset Chelsea last weekend. 

Five straight losses give Watford a league-high 24 this season, which is one more than Norwich City (who has already clinched relegation). It’s just been a brutal season for the Hornets, one “worthy” of relegation as they’ve scored just 32 goals (third fewest) and conceded 69 (second most in club history). Their only goal scored vs. Burnley was an “own goal.” Take OG’s away and the Hornets have just eight players who have scored a goal this season, fewest in the entire EPL. The reverse saw CP win 4-1 back in February and it should be more of the same here at Selhurst Park as the Eagles look to complete the league double. 8* Crystal Palace

10* Brentford (10:00 AM ET): Aside from a 3-0 loss to Manchester United on Monday, Brentford has been in excellent form down the “home stretch” this Premier League season. It won’t get the Bees into European contention or anything, but this has been a successful return to the English top flight after just being promoted for 2021/22. In fact, Brentford ought to be a lot higher than 14th in the table right now; they are 7th in xPts (expected points). They can still move into the Top 10 with a win here and I like their chances at getting the full three points at Southampton’s expense on Saturday. 

Southampton is level with Brentford at 40 points, but the Saints have a worse goal differential and xPts tells a very different story about the two sides. Whereas Brentford should probably be higher in the table, Southampton seems very deserving of its current place and the recent form of the two sides couldn’t be more different. Brentford has won five of seven and was unbeaten in four straight before the loss to Man U earlier in the week. Meanwhile, Southampton has won just one of its last 10 matches, losing seven times. With nothing really left to play for, it will be difficult for the Saints to get over what happened last week when they blew a 1-0 lead to Crystal Palace and gave up the game winner in stoppage time to lose 2-1. 

Being at home is obviously also an advantage for Brentford as they have not conceded a goal here since February. They are looking to join the likes of Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal as the only sides to keep four consecutive clean sheets at home this Premier League season. Southampton has picked up just three out of a possible 15 points on the road going back to February 9th. They’ve also conceded two goals in each of their last three matches. With Brentford having lost the reverse 4-1 back in January, they’ll be out for revenge here. Look for a win by the home side. 10* Brentford

10* Dallas (9:30 ET): The Mavericks seem to have no answers for the Suns as they’ve lost the first two games of this series by 7 and 20 points. The first game wasn’t really that close as Dallas was down double digits most of the way and trailed by 16 with just five minutes remaining. It’s not just these two games where the Mavs have struggled against the Suns either. Going back to the beginning of 2020, they’ve lost 11 straight head to head matchups and only covered the spread twice. But now the series moves back to Dallas where the Mavs are 31-13 SU this year and giving up only 101.5 PPG. 

Game 2 was a little different than Game 1 in the sense that this time the Mavs were only down six entering the fourth quarter. But then Chris Paul took over and it turned into another blowout situation. Dallas actually led at halftime, 60-58, but simply could not match the hot shooting of the Suns, who finished the game at a blistering 64.5% from the floor. Even if the series wasn’t moving to Dallas for Game 3, you know there is no way Phoenix can match that kind of overall shooting percentage. They were also 52% (13 of 25) from three-point range. Paul and Devin Booker were a combined 22 of 35 from the floor. No player on the Suns shot below 50% for the game! C’mon man! 

From previous analysis that I’ve done, you might recall that teams down 0-2 in a best of seven series do quite well when returning home for Game 3. Not necessarily in the first round of this year’s playoffs, but historically teams in this spot are hitting well over 60% ATS. The Mavs will essentially be playing for their season here as no team in NBA history has ever erased a 3-0 series deficit. Considering Dallas has shot 41 percent from three-point range so far in this series, I think they can get the job done in Game 3. They beat Utah twice without Luka Doncic in Round 1 and the role players will play better at home. 10* Dallas

7* Houston (8:10 ET): I won with Detroit yesterday, but this is now a horrible spot for them as they head to Houston to face a much better ballclub. Plus, Detroit played a doubleheader on Wednesday (lost the second game). That doubleheader was with the Pirates, one of the few teams in worse shape than the Tigers, who are 8-15 and have the American League’s second worst run differential. They are probably a bottom five team in all of baseball right now and this is a solid price to go against them on Thursday. 

Houston is coming off a three-game sweep of Seattle (here at home) and has won seven of its last nine to move into second place in the AL West. They shut the Mariners out in each of the first two games before breaking out the bats yesterday for a 7-2 victory. It certainly is disappointing to see the ‘Stros sitting at 21st in MLB in runs scored, but the Tigers are one of the few behind them. Detroit is second from the bottom in runs scored this season and has been beyond dreadful when taking their act on the road. So far, they are averaging only 2.3 runs per game away from home and hitting a paltry .215. 

Prior to yesterday’s twinbill, the Tigers had lost six of seven. The most runs they’ve scored in any of their L9 games is FOUR. The only thing keeping this money line reasonable is the pitching matchup as Tarik Skubal has been decent thus far for the Tigers while Jose Urquidy has struggled some for the Astros. Skubal hasn’t allowed a HR this season, but he allowed 35 in 2021 and Houston typically bats well at home vs. left-handers. Urquidy had a solid 2021 season and while right-handed hitters have given him some trouble so far in ‘22, Detroit doesn’t have much power on that side of the plate (save for Javy Baez). This looks like an easy win for the home team. 7* Houston

8* Over Blue Jays/Guardians (6:10 ET): Only Cincinnati (with its horrible pitching) has seen more games go Over this season than has Cleveland, who split a doubleheader here at home with San Diego yesterday. Both games were decided by one run, the first being a 5-4 loss while second being a 6-5 come from behind win. It’s not a great spot for the Guardians here as they face an immediate turnaround with the Blue Jays coming to town. But the starting pitcher Toronto is sending out, Jose Berrios, has one of the more fortunate 5-0 team start records in recent memory as his ERA and WHIP are 4.13 and 1.583. 

Honestly, if it weren’t for the situation of being off a doubleheader and having Aaron Civale starting tonight, I would have considered Cleveland at plus money in this series opener. But Civale has been horrific to this point with a 10.68 ERA and 1.954 WHIP after four outings. It’s actually rather shocking that the team has won twice with him on the mound. One of those was last time out, 9-8 over Oakland. For the second straight start, Civale gave up six runs in four innings or less. He has yet to pitch longer than four innings in any start and opponents are batting a blistering .349 against him. 

With the expectation that both starting pitchers are going to struggle in this matchup, I’m taking the Over. Not surprisingly, all four Civale starts this season have gone Over. Berrios’ numbers are somewhat skewed by his first start (lasted only one-third of an inning and gave up four runs), but he’s very lucky to have the 5-0 TSR and certainly should have allowed more runs to this point. Toronto was thought to have one of the better offenses coming into 2022, but surprisingly Cleveland is scoring more than them so far. The Over is 4-0 the L4 Guardians’ home games where they have been the ‘dog. 8* Over Blue Jays/Guardians

10* West Ham +0.0 (3:00 ET): Neither of these two sides has any chance at gaining entry into next season’s Champions League through their respective leagues. West Ham currently sits seventh in the Premier League table, 11 points adrift of Arsenal, who just beat the Hammers 2-1 on Sunday (a win on the end as well!) Eintracht Frankfurt sits 11th in the Bundesliga and it’s a mathematical impossibility for them to finish top four. So winning the Europa League (which sends you to the UCL next season) now has an added importance for both clubs.

Eintracht Frankfurt won the first leg, 2-1 in London, giving them a surprising one-goal edge going into the second leg. What’s a little fascinating about Frankfurt’s run to the Europa League semis, which has seen them oust Real Betis and Barcelona in the knockout stages, is that they haven’t won a single Bundesliga match going back to March 13th! They were just shut out 2-0 by Leverkusen on Monday and I don’t think the short turnaround does them any favors for this second leg. Monday marked the fourth time since March 20th that Frankfurt was held goalless on the domestic front. They’ve also gone six straight matches without picking up a win here at home.

So West Ham absolutely has a chance to erase this one goal deficit on Thursday. I’m taking them here on the “draw no bet line” just to be safe, but I expect them to win here. To be clear, all we need for this bet to cash is the Hammers to be winning the match at the end of 90 minutes + stoppage time. If they are up by only a goal, there will be added time to decide who moves onto the Final, but that will be no concern of ours. The Hammers are pretty clearly the better side in this fixture. Given the season they have had in the Bundesliga, it would be quite the shock if Frankfurt was playing any European football next season. 10* West Ham (Draw No Bet)

10* AS Roma (3:00 ET): Considering what’s on the line in the Europa Conference League (a spot in next year’s Europa League), you might think Leicester City is the far more motivated side here, seeing as the Foxes have zero chances of qualifying for any European football next season through the Premier League while there’s a good chance Roma ends up finishing fifth in Serie A and qualifies for the Europa League regardless. But you also can’t dismiss the fact that Roma is simply the better side in this fixture, which is at home where they are typically much stronger. I’m betting on them to win and advance on Thursday.

The clubs enter this second leg of the semifinals tied 1-1 after playing to a draw last week in Leicester. That match saw Roma strike first with a Lorenzo Pellegrini goal in the 15th minute. Unfortunately though, the Italian side would not score again and the dreaded “own goal” (in the 67th minute) equalized and the clubs ended the first leg level. Still, considering they were away, that’s not a bad result for Roma. All the need to do now is win and they’re on to the Final to face the winner of Marseille-Feyenoord and they’d be favored over either of those two.

Picking up some hardware would be a nice consolation for Roma as their chances of finishing top four in Serie A this season have pretty much gone out the window. They’d desperately like to win here, something they have not done since blasting Bodo/Glimt in the second leg of the Conference League quarters. Three draws and a loss to Inter have followed. Ending that winless run at home would be rather satisfying. Leicester City is currently 11th in the Premier League table, but honestly is lucky as they have the fourth fewest xPts (expected points) this season. They are winless over their last five matches. I’ll call for the home side to win here inside of 90 mins + stoppage time. 10* AS Roma

10* Under Reds/Brewers (1:40 ET): The Cincinnati Reds are setting baseball back to the 1890s. Last night’s horrific 18-4 defeat (at the hands of Milwaukee) leaves them at 3-21 on the year with a -82 run differential. They’ve lost eight straight and 19 of 20. This is the unquestioned worst team in all of baseball this year. Unfortunately for the Reds, Thursday afternoon has them again facing the Brewers, who have been cleaning up against the dregs of the NL Central as of late. But I look for today’s game to be a lot lower scoring than yesterday and most recent Reds’ games. Take the Under here. 

If you’ve been paying any attention to baseball this season, then you know there were an abundance of Unders early on. Only two teams have gone Over in more than 55% of their games and leading the charge is Cincinnati at 14-9-1. Seven of their last eight games have seen nine or more total runs scored. But I think this one is going to be different. Part of that is the Reds are dead last in the National League at 3.1 runs per game. They are even worse on the road where they are scoring just 2.7 rpg with a collective .186 average. Figuring that Milwaukee wins again here, they will only have to come up to bat eight times in this game. 

Cincinnati’s woeful offensive numbers figure not to get any better after today as they’ll be facing Adrian Houser, who is one of several Milwaukee starters off to a strong start in 2022. Houser has been especially dominant in his two previous home starts (0.77 ERA, 1.028 WHIP), allowing just one run in 11 ⅔ IP. Brewers’ pitching has allowed only 14 runs to score over the L7 games. Now while the Brew Crew offense did explode for 18 runs last night, such a performance is obviously atypical, especially from them. The team is still hitting only .228 on the year. Reds’ starter Hunter Greene is a bit better than his numbers show. 10* Under Reds/Brewers

8* Under Angels/Red Sox (1:35 ET): I had thought the Halos were going to come in and take Tuesday’s series opener, but as it turns out, that assessment was a “day early.” After losing 4-0 on Tuesday, Los Angeles bounced back with a 10-5 win last night. But the number of runs scored in Wednesday’s game was a little bit misleading. The Angels got 10 runs off just eight hits and the game went to extra innings. It was 4-4 at the end of nine, but the visitors quickly put things to bed with two HRs in the 10th. Let’s not forget LA had been shutout in three of its previous four games. I like the Under this afternoon. 

A major reason I like the Under here is the starting pitching matchup. Shohei Ohtani will go for the Angels, and aside from one bad start (when I faded him 4/14 vs. Texas), he’s been great. You’re talking a 30-5 KW ratio and he’s allowed just two runs and six hits total in his L2 starts. Ohtani was especially dominant when he last started on the road, holding Houston to just one hit over six scoreless innings. He also had 12 strikeouts that day. Ohtani wasn’t quite as dominant last week vs. Cleveland, but still allowed only two runs and five hits. Here he should have little trouble with a Boston lineup that is scoring just 3.3 rpg vs. right-handed starters. 

Prior to two of their last three games going Over (I cashed the Over in a 9-5 loss to Baltimore on Saturday), the Red Sox had seen the Under go 10-1-1 over a 12-game stretch. They will send veteran southpaw Rich Hill to the bump today. Hill can’t be counted on to go very long, but he has tossed four scoreless in each of his L2 outings. Last time out, he allowed just one hit and didn’t walk anyone either. Hill has allowed only two home runs this season and he’s not being hit particularly hard. The Boston bullpen is solid, which is key as well. The Under is 6-0 the L6 times the Angels scored 5+ runs their previous game. 8* Under Angels/Red Sox

7* Colorado (8:40 ET): All of a sudden, Washington has won B2B games in convincing fashion. They ended their series with the Giants by prevailing 11-5 on Sunday, then it was a 10-2 win yesterday here at Coors Field. The Nationals have now scored 10+ runs in three of their last four games, a sharp departure from what we’d seen from them previously. They’d started the season in very poor form (6-15 first 21 games) and went nine straight games scoring three runs or fewer. They may score more than that tonight, but they certainly aren’t going to match what they did yday and I like the Rockies to bounce back. 

Conversely, Colorado got off to a great start, but has slowed down a bit by losing five of eight. The only wins during that time came from a sweep of horrendous Cincinnati. The Rockies were swept out in Philadelphia before that and then suffered that embarrassing defeat here at home last night. But we all know that, traditionally, this is a much better team at Coors. They were 9-4 going into yday at home. They are averaging 5.6 runs per game here and will thankfully be facing a starter that is 0-4 in his five starts (0-5 TSR) with an 8.69 ERA and 2.084 WHIP. That would be the Nats’ Patrick Corbin. 

The Rockies counter with Austin Gomber, a fellow lefty that is coming off B2B quality starts. Granted both were away from home, but Gomber figures to get the job done here. Now, I say that knowing full well the Nationals have hit shockingly well on the road. But those numbers are definitely due to “cool off,” even in this venue. The Rockies are the better team and off a bad loss, so it seems reasonable to expect them to bounce back tonight. 7* Colorado

10* Philadelphia (7:35 ET): Joel Embiid remains out for Philadelphia, but the Sixers led Game 1 at the half and seemed to be en route to at least a cover. That was until things went awry midway through the third quarter and Miami took control defensively, holding the Sixers to just 31 points over the final 20 minutes. James Harden, who will obviously need to step it up offensively with Embiid out, scored just 16 points on 5 of 13 shooting in Game 1. You’ve got to figure he’ll do better tonight. Plus, he has help with Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris, the latter of whom went for 27 points on Tuesday night. I’m taking the points here. 

Philly shot a dreadful 17.6% from three-point range in Game 1, going just 6 of 34. That was especially bad, considering Miami (who is one of the league’s better 3-pt shooting teams) made only 9 of 36 from behind the arc. While both teams figure to improve from distance tonight, I think it’s clear that the 76ers have more room to improve and it’s difficult for me to envision them being any worse than they were offensively in the first game. After being held 100 points the previous game, the Sixers have gone an impressive 16-4 straight up and 13-7 against the spread this season. They are also on a 35-17-1 ATS run following a double digit loss. 

Miami’s only postseason loss thus far came by a single point, on the road, but it is notable they’ve failed to score more than 110 points in any of the last four games. As I said in the Game 1 analysis, Philadelphia was able to beat the Heat in the final regular season matchup, despite not having Embiid AND Harden. Going back to Philly’s ability to bounce back from a bad loss, the last time they were off a double digit loss where they were held below 100 points was Game 6 against the Raptors. They ended up closing out the series with a 132-97 road win. Take the points. 10* Philadelphia

8* Over 76ers/Heat (7:35 ET):  Joel Embiid remains out for Philadelphia, but the Sixers led Game 1 at the half and seemed to be en route to at least a cover. That was until things went awry midway through the third quarter and Miami took control defensively, holding the Sixers to just 31 points over the final 20 minutes. James Harden, who will obviously need to step it up offensively with Embiid out, scored just 16 points on 5 of 13 shooting in Game 1. You’ve got to figure he’ll do better tonight. Plus, he has help with Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris, the latter of whom went for 27 points on Tuesday night. I’m taking the points here.

Philly shot a dreadful 17.6% from three-point range in Game 1, going just 6 of 34. That was especially bad, considering Miami (who is one of the league’s better 3-pt shooting teams) made only 9 of 36 from behind the arc. Both teams figure to improve from distance tonight as they shoot 36.5% and 37.6% from behind the arc, respectively. Miami was in fact the league’s best three-point shooting team, percentage-wise in the regular season. Philadelphia was seventh. Going a combined 15 of 70 from deep is highly uncharacteristic for these two teams. 

For the Heat, who are still missing Kyle Lowry, I expect Jimmy Butler to play better than he did in Game 1 where he finished with only 15 points on 5 of 16 shooting. He typically follows a subpar game with a good one. Tyler Herro stepped in Game 1 for Miami, outscoring Philly’s bench by himself. With Lowry still out, Herro figures to continue to put up nice numbers. Speaking of the Philly bench, they’ve got to be better than 1 of 12 from three-point range. Yes, six straight Heat games have gone Under, but this looks to be the fourth one in a row where the oddsmakers have dropped the total. Given the likelihood of improved shooting (from both sides) in this game, the value is on the Over. 8* Over 76ers/Heat

7* Detroit (1:10 ET): There’s no denying the fact that the Tigers have been slumping lately (lost six of seven) and are off to a rough start (7-14). But look at who they’ve faced recently. Over the weekend, they were out in LA to face the Dodgers. Before that, they were in Minnesota, facing a Twins team that’s gotten off to a hot start. The club will be back on the road this weekend to face Houston. So it’s imperative that the Tigers handle their business today against the equally lowly Pirates. The teams were supposed to play yesterday, but Mother Nature said no. So now it’s a traditional doubleheader on Wednesday. I like the Tigers to take Game 1.

The Tigers’ offense did not do much on the recently completed road trip, but has been a little better at home, producing a .244 average. Note that the last time they played a doubleheader (4/23), it was here in the Motor City and they scored 13 runs in Game 1! Not saying they’ll do that again here, but we should see far more production from the lineup than what we’ve seen over the last week. In Sunday’s loss to the Dodgers, Detroit should have scored more than three runs as they left nine men on base. In this first game, they’ll be facing the combo of Dillon Peters (opener) and Bryce Wilson. The Pirates’ bullpen has also been very bad.

The Pirates’ hitting might be even worse than their pitching and they have been very bad on the road against right-handed pitching. In this first game, they’ll be facing righty Michael Pineda, who had a great season debut where he beat the Yankees thanks to five scoreless innings. He wasn’t nearly as effective last time out (against the Twins), but he’ll be up against a much weaker lineup today. The Tigers’ bullpen has been shockingly good to this point (1.97 ERA, 1.06 WHIP), so they have a huge edge there. Pittsburgh has been outscored by 3.5 rpg on the road thus far and has the worst overall run differential in MLB besides Cincinnati. 7* Detroit (Game 1)

7* Run Line Atlanta (1:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line selections where I am backing the Braves +1.5. After taking Monday’s opener, the Braves lost both games of yesterday’s doubleheader. Today, they’ll be facing Tyler Megill, who in his last start combined with four Mets’ relievers to deliver just the second no-hitter in franchise history. You may recall that I faded them (the Mets) the following day (Phillies were my 10* Game of the Month) and that won. The Mets are obviously off to a great start while the defending World Series Champs (Atlanta) are floundering a bit. But I like the Braves on the RL here. 

Atlanta lost the first game yesterday by just a single run. The second game did see them get blanked 3-0 as they had no answers for Carlos Carrasco. But, the way I see it, the biggest problem facing the Braves right now is a lack of timely hitting. They are hitting just .281 with RISP this season (27th) and yesterday saw them go a putrid 3 for 29 when a runner was on base. You’ve got to think they’ll turn around in that department sooner rather than later. Given how Megill pitched in his last start, you may be thinking now is not that time. But remember Megill only went five innings as part of that no-no. 

More timely hitting, an additional run and a half to work with, plus Ian Anderson starting sounds like a great combo to bet on. Anderson has been great in his two previous road starts, delivering a 2.31 ERA and 0.686 WHIP. After a rough first start (against Cincinnati!), Anderson has really settled in, allowing 2 ER or less each of the L3 starts. I know the Mets have won their first seven series (tied for the third longest streak in the NL since ‘77), but today seems like a great buy low/sell high situation on these two NL East rivals. The Braves are certainly better than what they’ve shown thus far. 7* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5)

9* LA Angels (7:10 ET): The Angels have been one of the surprise teams so far, getting out to a 15-9 start, which has them in first place in the American League West. Of course, a team that has Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani on its roster should be a contender, year in and year out. The Halos are coming from Chicago where they were blanked on Monday, 3-0, their second shutout loss in the last three games (had previously not been shutout all season). They face a Boston team that's been a bit of a disappointment (9-14) and lost two of three in Baltimore over the weekend. The Red Sox had Monday off, but just aren’t as good as the Angels right now and I’m backing the road team in this one. 

The starting pitching matchup for tonight’s series opener looks like a good one with the resurgent Noah Syndergaard going for Los Angels and Michael Wacha going for Boston. Syndergaard is 2-0 with a 2.12 ERA and 0.824 WHIP through three starts. The only time the Angels lost with him on the mound was his previous start, as a massive favorite against Baltimore. Two years removed from Tommy John surgery, Syndergaard’s velocity is clearly down, but he has yet to allow a single hit this season when using a curveball or a slider. 

Wacha posted a 5.05 ERA last season for Tampa Bay, but has been much better for Boston so far in 2022. He has a 1.77 ERA and 0.935 WHIP through four starts. So we’ve got two pitchers off to hot starts. Though the Angels did play yesterday, I still trust their offense more here than I do the Red Sox. LA is putting up 5.1 rpg so far on the road and is the highest scoring team in the American League right now. Only three AL teams have scored fewer runs than Boston and they are the teams with the three worst records in the league (BAL, DET, KC). The Angels are 6-2 off a loss this season. 9* LA Angels

10* Over Bucks/Celtics (7:00 ET): Think we’ll see better shooting here than we did in Game 1? Boston was a paltry 33.3% from the field in their series opening loss, scoring just 89 points despite making 18 threes. Their three-point shooting was actually quite decent, 36% to be exact, but somehow (at home) the C’s were 10 of 34 inside the arc on Sunday. That’s truly incredible. I know that Milwaukee has really stepped it up defensively in the postseason, but there’s just no way we don’t get improved shooting (and more points) from the home team in Game 2. The Bucks only shot 41.1% overall in Game 1 and they should improve in that regard as well tonight.

All six Bucks’ playoff games have now gone Under. Oddsmakers are chasing as Game 1 of the Bucks-Bulls’ first round series had a closing total of 230.5. Now the O/U line for this game opened 15.5 points lower. Milwaukee was the highest scoring team in the Eastern Conference during the regular season, which is something else to consider. Giannis Antetokounmpo had a triple double in Game 1 (24-13-12) while Jrue Holiday stepped it up with 25 points and nine rebounds. Even without Khris Middleton, I expect the Bucks to score more than they did in Game 1. Especially if Boston is w/o Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart (questionable).

On the Celtics side, you’ve got to expect Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum will improve upon their collective 10 of 31 shooting from Game 1. For the season, that duo combined to average 48.2 PPG. The theme of this play is very much “improvement,” in case you couldn’t tell. Boston averaged 113.5 PPG in Round 1. Milwaukee scored at least 110 in each of its last four first round games. I’ll close by repeating something I said in the Game 1 analysis: the four regular season meetings between these teams all saw at least 220 total points scored. 10* Over Bucks/Celtics

10* Over Mavs/Suns (10:00 ET): The Mavs-Jazz series was pretty low-scoring with the two teams combining for just 203.7 points per game. But now Luka Doncic is ready to play a full series for the Mavs and they will be facing a Phoenix team that was top five in both scoring and offensive efficiency during the regular season. For the Suns, Devin Booker returned earlier than expected and they were able to close out the Pelicans in Game 6, scoring a series high 115 points. Only one time in the first round did the Suns fail to score 110. Their season average at home is 115.2 and if they hit that tonight, this looks like an easy Over. 

Now Dallas did just do a great job defensively against Utah, who also was one of the top offensive teams in the regular season. But the Suns aren’t as inept as the Jazz. They’ve got Chris Paul, who had a monster first round with 22.3 points and 11.3 assists per game. Note that in the close out game vs. New Orleans, Booker scored only 13 points and came off the bench. He’s now had several days off to further get over his hamstring issue and will almost certainly give the team more than he did in that last game. The Suns are also 20-8 Over following a SU win. 

Look for Dallas to attempt a lot of threes in this series as they had the highest 3pt rate in the first round and connected at 37%. Doncic, the NBA’s third leading scorer, played in only one of the three regular season meetings vs. Phoenix (Mavs lost all of them). That one time he played, the Mavs were up nine in the 4Q and that was with Doncic shooting just 9 of 23 for the game. All three regular season meetings also took place before the Mavs traded for Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans. While he had a relatively poor first round series, Dinwiddie can easily exceed his 15.3 PPG average vs. Utah here. That would mean Jalen Brunson would not have to match his 27.8 PPG 1st round average. Bottom line there’s a lot of scoring options for both teams. 10* Over Mavs/Suns

8* Philadelphia (7:30 ET): So the big story here is that the 76ers will be without Joel Embiid, though reports have surfaced he could be back as early as Game 3. But that obviously doesn’t help Philly tonight. What does help is having James Harden. I think that the market has slightly overreacted to the news of Embiid’s absence as the Sixers were bet out as far as +8.5 for Game 1 in Miami. Remember that we’ve seen Dallas win without Luka Doncic, Phoenix win without Devin Booker and more recently (yday) Milwaukee go to Boston and win without Khris Middleton. Not saying the Sixers pull the outright upset here, but the spread seems too large. 

It’s not as if Miami is 100 percent healthy right now either. Kyle Lowry is still out while Jimmy Butler missed the close out game vs. Atlanta and Tyler Herro has been battling a cold. Butler and Herro will reportedly play tonight. But with so many players less than 100%, can the Heat score enough to cover this spread? I don’t think so. Harden should put up monster numbers for Philadelphia and it’s worth noting he averaged 10.5 assists per game in the first round vs. Toronto. Tyrese Maxey can also help fill the scoring void left by Embiid’s absence. Maxey scored 38 in Game 1 vs. Toronto, and is third in the league in three-point efficiency. 

Only six players took part in all four 76ers-Heat regular season matchups. I think it is worth noting though that without Embiid and Harden, the Sixers defeated the Heat 113-106 (as eight-point underdogs) back on March 21st. Now that was at home. But they shot 50% overall as a team and were 40% from three-point range. Also, the Sixers’ defense was outstanding against the Heat in the regular season as Gabe Vincent was the only Miami player to average more than 20 PPG against them. The four games saw the Heat only outscore the Sixers by four total points. Expect Game 1 to be close. 8* Philadelphia

8* Over Brentford/Manchester United (3:00 ET): I don’t think there’s any denying that Brentford is in much better form right now compared to their counterparts in Old Trafford. The Bees have picked up points in six of the last seven fixtures, winning five of them. They played to a goalless draw with Tottenham last week, but don’t let this side’s current position in the table (14th) fool you. Brentford is actually sixth in the league in expected points (xPts), ahead of Manchester United! It seems reasonable to expect the Bees to continue their unbeaten streak in Monday’s fixture, but I’m instead looking at the Over here. 

Manchester United has not won since it was announced Erik ten Hag would replace interim boss Ralph Rangnick this summer. The Red Devils lost 3-1 to Arsenal last weekend and followed that with a 1-1 draw against Chelsea midweek, thanks to the heroics of Cristiano Ronaldo. But United now faces the prospect of missing Europe altogether next season after failing to win six of their last seven fixtures. The lone win came against last place Norwich City. They currently sit sixth in the table. They’ll probably end up in the Europa or Europa Conference League, but that is far from settled now. 

This is Man U’s final home game, so I can’t see them rolling over. They beat Brentford 3-1 in the reverse fixture, although the Bees finished ahead on expected goals. I know the 0-0 draw with Tottenham may not inspire a lot of confidence in Brentford’s scoring ability, but they have been at 1.32 xG or better in seven straight matches. Plus Man U’s defense has gotten pretty bad down the stretch.and they are now in the bottom half of the league in goals allowed. But the one shining light for United is they have scored eight goals in their last four home matches. Look for this one to sneak Over. 8* Over Brentford/Manchester United

7* St. Louis (1:15 ET): Already losers of 8 of their last 10 games, this is a tough spot for the visiting Royals. It’s a one-day stopover in St. Louis before the teams head to Kansas City to play two more games. This is a make-up date from a rainout on 4/13. The Cardinals won the only other game, 6-5. Zack Greinke was supposed to pitch the second game. He’ll pitch here and while the numbers look good for Greinke, there are some advanced metrics which are troubling. Throw in the fact that the Royals’ bullpen has been pretty lousy and they are a relatively easy fade Monday.

St. Louis is off to a much better start than their I-70 rivals. The Cardinals come in with a 12-9 record on the year after beating Arizona 7-5 on Sunday. While that only earned them a series split, the Cards have a top ten run differential and only three teams have allowed a fewer number of runs. Starting today’s game will be Steven Matz, a lefty with a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts. The team overcame a shaky start to win Matz’s last time out, beating the Mets 10-5. But in his two starts prior, Matz allowed a total of just one run in 10 ⅔ IP. He has good career numbers vs. the Royals. The Cards also have a clear edge in the bullpen in this matchup.

The way Kansas City lost Sunday does them no favors as they blew an early 4-1 lead. They were swept by the Yankees (at home) and this team now has the worst run differential in the American League. The offense is at the bottom of the league rankings, 28th in average and OPS. They are hitting a positively putrid .211 in games vs. left-handed starters, losing three of the four. The Royals have lost six of the last seven meetings with the Cardinals dating back to last season. I just feel that the money line should be a lot higher for this Monday matinee. 7* St. Louis

9* Under Phillies/Mets (7:05 ET): There’s been a scarcity of runs in this series with the Phillies getting no-hit on Friday, but then also winning 4-1 on Saturday. That latter result was great for me as I had the road team as my 10* Game of the Month, the capper on a stupendous month overall. Now I look to start May by playing the total and I don’t know how you can’t look to the Under here. Max Scherzer is going tonight for the Mets and he’s not only 3-0 in his four starts (4-0 TSR), but has a 1.80 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. At home this season, the Mets are allowing just 2.4 runs per game and a .161 batting average. 

Scherzer is coming off back to back dominant performances where he went seven innings (both times) and allowed just one run on three hits combined. He had 20 strikeouts as well. Those were wins over the Giants and Cardinals. Scherzer has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this year and the lone HR surrendered came in his first start. It’s difficult for me to see the Phillies, who have collected just 10 hits over the L3 games, doing much against Scherzer as he has not lost in his last 23 starts! In 25 career starts vs. the Phillies, Scherzer is 14-4 with a 2.50 ERA and 0.989 WHIP. He has 201 strikeouts in 158 ⅓ innings. 

Like the Phils, the Mets have scored a total of just four runs in this series. While last night’s result was disappointing for them, especially coming off the no-hitter Friday, there’s no need to sweat as the Mets still have the highest win percentage in the National League. Tonight, they are facing Zach Eflin, who has somewhat struggled so far, but he was much better his last time out when he gave up just one run on two hits against Colorado. Eflin’s road numbers are skewed by the fact he also faced the Rockies at Coors Field. Eflin had another start this year where he didn’t allow any runs in four innings of work. Look for this to be a pitchers’ duel on Sunday night. 9* Under Phillies/Mets

8* Over Warriors/Grizzlies (3:30 ET): Memphis’ series vs. Minnesota was lower scoring than anticipated with four of the six games going Under. But there was still an average of 223.9 points per game scored between the two teams. Quite frankly, I thought the Grizzlies were a bit fortunate to advance - at least in six games - as they trailed by double digits (in the fourth quarter!) in three of their four wins. Now they are set to face a Golden State team that is looking like it should be considered the favorite to come out of the West. The Warriors averaged 118 PPG in eliminating the Nuggets in five games. 

I like Game 1 of this series to go Over the total. These were the two highest scoring teams in the first round, combining to average 232.7 PPG. Golden State shot 51.5% overall from the field and 42.2% from three-point range. I think the fact Memphis gave up only 109 PPG to Minnesota was a bit fortunate as the T’wolves would constantly fall apart late. Over the L5 games of the series, the T’wolves would average less than 21 PPG in the 4Q. The Warriors simply will not melt down like that. Go ahead and throw out that 28-point loss the Dubs had here in Memphis back in March. Curry, Thompson and Green all didn’t play. With its “death lineup” now in full force, Golden State is as strong as it has been all year. 

No player has hit more threes in the playoffs so far than has Memphis’ Desmond Bane (27). While Golden State has an excellent defensive efficiency rating, it should be pointed out that they allowed 113 and 126 points in the two road games vs. Denver. Only Game 5 of that series stayed Under. This would be the lowest total for either team so far in the playoffs. The Over is 11-1 in Memphis’ last 12 playoff games as an underdog. We’re going to see a lot of three-point attempts in this series. Golden State was third in 3PA during the regular seasons while Memphis averaged 34.5 3PA per game vs. the Warriors in the four reg season matchups. 8* Over Warriors/Grizzlies

8* Over Red Sox/Orioles (1:05 ET): At long last, Baltimore snapped its losing streak (five straight) last night with a 2-1 win in 10 innings. They scored the game winning run on a throwing error, capping a comeback after being held hitless for the first six innings. The O’s didn’t score until the eighth while the Red Sox didn’t score after the first! There’s been very little offense in the series as the Red Sox won Friday’s opener by a score of 3-1. The Under is now 10-1-1 in Boston’s L12 games and 5-0 the L5 times they’ve faced Baltimore. But because of the starting pitching matchup, I’m on the Over today. 

Let’s start with Nick Pivetta, who Boston will send to the mound. The right-handed has an 0-4 team start record to this point and he deserves it, considering an 8.26 ERA and 1.958 WHIP. It’s been three straight starts where Pivetta failed to last five innings and Red Sox opponents ended up scoring 6+ runs in all three contests. Last time out, Pivetta surrendered only a pair of runs (on three hits) in 4 ⅔ innings. But his control issues continued with four walks, upping his season total to 13. Going back to last season, Pivetta is 0-6 over his L12 starts with a 6.61 ERA. I think even Baltimore’s lineup can get to him. 

The Baltimore bats better wake up here, because with Jordan Lyles pitching, the O’s figure to give up some runs themselves. Lyles has a 5.40 ERA and 1.60 WHIP, not as bad as Pivetta, but he’s also notorious for allowing home runs. Last season saw Lyles lead the American League with 38 HRs allowed. He gave up three in his last start, a 12-8 loss to the Yankees, and it certainly doesn’t help that Lyles has a 6.10 ERA in four career starts vs. Boston. The last two games may inspire little confidence in the two lineups, but today’s starting pitching matchup all but ensures we’ll be seeing a slugfest. 8* Red Sox/Orioles

10* Over Bucks/Celtics (1:00 ET): This series pits the reigning NBA Champs (Milwaukee) against the team I feel is the favorite to come out of the East this year (Boston). By virtue of finishing second in the conference standings, the Celtics have the home court advantage. They made quick work of Brooklyn in Round 1, shockingly sweeping the Nets in what was expected to be a competitive series. As for the Bucks, they were widely expected to eliminate the Bulls and did so in five games. The two teams are obviously now anticipating a much more competitive series here in the conference semifinals. 

All five games in the Bucks-Bulls series stayed Under the total. The series started with a Game 1 total of 230.5 and steadily declined down to 217.5 for Game 5. Milwaukee held Chicago to 95.2 PPG on 40.4% shooting, but they won’t be able to do that against Boston, who averaged 113.5 PPG on 49.1% shooting in the first round. The Bucks averaged 109.8 PPG on 47.1% shooting. That PPG average was below what they averaged for the season (115.2), which led the Eastern Conference. This is going to be a higher scoring series.

These teams met four times in the regular season. All four games saw at least 220 total points scored. The last two meetings had O/U lines of 231.5 and 227.5. Yes, scoring does go down in the playoffs, but I think we’re getting a solid value on the Game 1 total. Only one of the four Celtics-Nets games had less than 221 total points scored. Milwaukee scored 110 or more in each of the last four games vs. Chicago. I think that it’s quite reasonable to expect both teams to score 110 in this game. They combine to average 227 PPG for the year. The Over is 8-1 the L9 meetings, only one of which had a lower O/U line than what we are presented with here. 10* Over Bucks/Celtics

9* Arsenal (11:30 AM ET): This one is all about the two sides’ respective motivations at the current time. Arsenal is all about finishing fourth in the Premier League. They are currently where they want to be, but only two points ahead of Tottenham, who seemingly have a favorable fixture on Sunday (vs Leicester City). By the time this match gets underway, there’s a decent shot the Gunners have fallen back into fifth. The huge showdown against the Spurs goes down in two weeks, but beating West Ham here is imperative. Arsenal is in better form than Sunday’s opponents and I like their chances of getting the full three points. 

West Ham, currently seventh in the table, is probably resigned to a Europa League or Europa Conference League spot next season. That is if they don’t win this year’s Europa League, where they are currently in the semifinals. But losing the first leg to Eintracht Frankfurt, at home on Thursday, was massively disappointing. Not only is West Ham’s primary focus going to be on this Thursday’s second leg, but having this fixture fall in between the two legs is not great from a situational perspective. The Hammers’ recent form, beyond what happened Thursday, hasn’t been the greatest either. They are winless in the L3 Premier League fixtures, including a 1-0 loss to Chelsea last week. 

The bottom line is that Arsenal cares far more about winning this one than does West Ham, whose focus will be on Thursday. The Hammers’ starting XI may look different than normal as a result. This is a side that’s been shutout twice during the three-match winless run here in the EPL and the only point earned came against Burnley. Meanwhile, off the B2B wins over Chelsea and Manchester United (where they scored a total of seven goals), Arsenal is simply in better form right now than West Ham. The Gunners have had a positive xG difference in four straight matches while the Hammers have done the same in just two of their last five. 9* Arsenal

7* Darren Elkins (7:35 ET): This is a fight set for three rounds, on the main card, in the UFC’s Featherweight Division (145 lbs). Elkins is far more battle tested at this level (26-10 overall, 16-9 UFC) than is Connelly (14-7, 1-1) and thus I expect the favorite to get his hand raised in what should end up being an easy victory.

Elkins has had a very up and down UFC run, which dates all the way back to 2010. The drop down to featherweight is what led to a five-fight win streak from 2011-13. He’d go on to trade wins and losses in 2014, but then came a career-best six-fight win streak from 2015-18 that brought him to the cusp of title contention. Unfortunately, he’d then go on to lose his next four fights. Back to back finishes over Luiz Eduardo Garagorri and Darrick Minner turned things around though. Elkins is coming off a first round loss to Cub Swanson last December, but this is a drop in class that he should handle.

Connelly should in all honesty be 0-2 in the UFC as he was somehow able to withstand an early barrage against Michel Pereira back in 2019 (his debut) and won a decision victory. But then he didn’t fight for nearly two years and lost a decision to Pat Sabatini in April of last year. With just one fight since 2019, it’s difficult to trust Connelly in this spot, especially since his fighting style plays right into Elkins’ hands. 7* Darren Elkins

10* Philadelphia (7:10 ET): The Phillies came into this series having just swept the Rockies. They scored a total of 32 runs over the four games (which were at home), but the bats went silent last night as five Mets pitchers combined to deliver just the second no-no in club history. It ended up as a 3-0 win for New York, who has enjoyed an excellent start to 2022 with the highest win percentage (.714) in all of MLB and second best run differential (+36). But I think tonight is an excellent spot to jump on the Phillies as you know they’ll be highly motivated to atone for last night. As reflected by the odds, these NL East teams are a lot more evenly matched than what the standings say right now.

While the Phils haven’t been quite as successful on the road as they’ve been at home, I like the starting pitching matchup for them tonight. Kyle Gibson gets the baseball and he’s posted a 0.985 WHIP over his first four starts. Gibson did not face the Mets when the teams played in Philadelphia earlier this month, but did have two quality starts against them in the second half of 2021. Gibson’s only mistakes in his last start, an 8-2 win over Colorado, were giving up a pair of solo home runs. Other than those, he allowed just one additional hit over his 5 ⅔ IP. 

Gibson will be facing Taijuan Walker, who is coming off the injured list. Walker has only thrown two innings in 2022 and they were against the Phils on April 11th. He didn’t give up a hit, but the Philly came back to win that game 5-4 after Walker left with a sore shoulder. I often like to fade pitchers in the first start back from injury as they aren’t in a groove. The injury coming so early in the season is a clear disadvantage to Walker. Note that the Phillies did draw six walks yesterday. If they can continue to be patient at the plate, they’ll get to Walker as you know the bats will wake up after what happened yesterday. Friday was the fifth shutout of the season for the Mets. Off the previous four, they are 1-2 in the next game if facing the same opponent. 10* Philadelphia

7* Gina Mazany (4:35 ET): This is a fight set for three rounds, on the prelims, in the UFC’s Women’s Flyweight Division. Mazany is 7-5 overall, but just 2-5 in her UFC career while Young is 7-4 overall and 0 for 2 in the UFC. Clearly, both fighters are in dire need of a victory on Saturday. I believe it will be Mazany getting her hand raised.

This is actually Mazany’s second stint with the UFC. Her first saw her lose three of four fights. After rebounding with a first round submission over Valerie Barney for the King of the Cage promotion in early 2020, Mazany found her way back into the UFC in the midst of the pandemic. She promptly lost to Julia Avila, but then picked up a win over Rachael Ostovich in November of 2020. Her only fight since then was a loss (May 2021) to Priscila Cachoeira.

While she doesn’t have a great track record of success at this level, what gives Mazany the edge here is that this will be Young’s first time fighting at flyweight (125 lbs). Young was clearly overwhelmed as a bantamweight where she suffered fairly one-sided losses to Macy Chiasson and Stephanie Egger in 2020 and ‘21 respectively. Having fought just one time since Feb 2020 doesn’t help Young’s cause either. What I see happening here is Mazany controlling the fight early with her wrestling, which she’s shown the ability to do previously, then grinding out a decision win. 7* Gina Mazany

9* FC Koln (9:30 AM ET): Augsburg is somewhat fortunate to be safe from relegation from the moment, considering they are third from the bottom in expected points (xPts) and have an expected goal differential of -22.34 (actual GD is -11). Last week’s 2-0 win over Bochum moved Augsburg seven points clear of the relegation playoff, so they’re in good shape with just three fixtures left in the Bundesliga season and one of them against last place Greuther Furth. But their current position also sets them up for a nice fade this week as they face FC Koln, who is still in contention for the Europa Conference League entering matchweek 32. 

Quite frankly, Koln may have even bigger European dreams than the Europa Conference league right now. They are still only five points back of the top four in the Bundesliga and a win here *could* move them into fifth in the table, although that depends on FC Union Berlin’s result Friday (not complete as of this writing) and what Freiburg does (vs. Hoffenheim) later on Saturday. But there’s no sense relying on those sides not to pick up points if you’re Koln. Playing any kind of European football next season would be a bit of a dream come true for Koln, considering they were in the relegation playoff at the end of last season.

Koln won last week, 3-1 over Arminia Bielefeld, which was their third straight win. They’ve scored three times in all three wins and now face an Augsburg side which has the second highest xGA (expected goals allowed) in the league this season. (Only Bielefeld is worse). There’s definitely some defensive regression in store for Augsburg down the stretch as they’ve conceded 11 goals fewer than expected this season, the third highest “overachievement” in all of Europe’s “Big 4” leagues. This is a great spot to fade Augsburg. 9* FC Koln (Goal Line - Draw No Bet)

10* Hellas Verona (9:00 AM ET): There were some favorable midweek results for Verona with Fiorentina losing 4-0 to Udinese and Atalanta drawing Torino. That means Verona’s faint hopes of playing European football next season are still alive, though in eighth place and six points back of Atalanta, it will require one heck of a finish to get there. This week’s fixture vs. struggling Cagliari is basically a must win for the visitors, who could use the three points regardless, just to ensure a top half finish in Serie A. Considering Cagliari’s poor form as of late, I expect Verona to get the win here and think they are a great value on the goal line (where a draw = no bet). 

Cagliari is fighting for its life right now as they are only three points ahead of suddenly surging Salernitana and Genoa in the race to avoid relegation. The remaining fixtures seem favorable as Rossoblu will face two of the sides (Salernitana, Venezia) currently in the relegation zone. But this looks to be a bad matchup as Verona is a good pressing team, something Cagliari struggles with mightily and the Rossoblu are also in line for some defensive regression as they are third from the bottom in Serie A in xGA (expected goals allowed). 

Verona’s matches have been much more high scoring compared to last season, which was inevitable. That said, they’ve notched more than one goal just one time in their last seven. This is where they should find the back of the net a few times, however, for the reasons mentioned above. After recording an impressive 2-1 victory over Atalanta two weeks ago, Verona had to settle for a 1-1 draw with Sampdoria last week. But most metrics (possession, shots, xG) say they should have won that fixture. With just one win in their last seven, the metrics aren’t saying many positive things about Cagliari right now and I expect them to lose Saturday. 10* Hellas Verona (Goal Line - Draw No Bet)

10* Houston (7:07 ET): The Astros come into this series having won three straight, all over Texas on the road. They won yesterday, despite accumulating only three hits. If they can do that, then it stands to reason with a likely bigger display of offense tonight, the road team can win again. This is a bit of a “revenge series” for the ‘Stros, who dropped two of three at home to Toronto last week. The Blue Jays ended up taking three of four from Boston to start their week, but have scored a total of only two runs in their last two contests. I think the value resides with Houston for this series opener. 

It’ll be Jose Urquidy getting the nod for Houston tonight. He pitched in the last series vs. Toronto and ended up with a bit of a hard-luck no-decision after giving up only two runs in 5 ⅔ innings. The Astros wound up losing that game 3-2. Urquidy did not pitch well his last time on the road, but I like his chances here as the Blue Jays lineup has not done much to impress in recent days and Vladimir Guerrero is likely still out after missing yesterday’s game. Something that I find interesting is that while Toronto is 7-3 at home thus far, they’ve actually allowed more runs than they have scored in those 10 games. 

The Blue Jays haven’t lost a series in 2022 (5-0-1) but they are 0-3 when Yusei Kikuchi takes the mound. Kikuchi (0-3 TSR) will start Friday, the first time he’s gotten to pitch at home. He did pitch in the last series vs. Houston and obviously that was the lone game his team dropped. Kikuchi allowed four runs in 3 ⅔ innings and had major control issues with five walks. Houston, who is a solid 8-5 on the road so far, knows Kikuchi well as they are the team he’s faced more than any other in his career. Those starts haven’t gone well for Kikuchi as he’s 1-5 with a 5.93 ERA. His 1.75 WHIP through three starts isn’t good either. 10* Houston

8* Run Line Baltimore (7:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a RUN LINE selection where I am backing the Orioles at +1.5. It was obviously not a good series vs. the Yankees for the O’s as they lost all three games by three or more runs. But returning to Camden Yards to face the Red Sox is a far more favorable matchup. Boston is closer to Baltimore in the AL East standings than they are to any of the top three teams. The Red Sox also failed to score yesterday, which was the 7th time in the L10 games they were held to two runs or fewer. The home team will do no worse than a one-run loss in tonight’s series opener. 

Now one-run games have not been kind to the Red Sox thus far as they’ve lost five of them so far (tied for most in all of MLB) including four in just the last eight games. Yesterday was the latest as they fell 1-0 in Toronto, a game they ended up with just four hits. Boston lost three of four overall in that series and could again be without designated hitter J.D. Martinez, who also missed yesterday’s contest. The starting pitcher for tonight will be veteran southpaw Rich Hill, who has yet to make it through five full innings and the end result is a 1.615 WHIP. I think Baltimore can get to him. 

The Orioles will counter Hill with one of their top prospects, Kyle Bradish, who is making his big league debut. I like the spot given Boston’s recent struggles at the plate. Plus the Red Sox are unfamiliar with Bradish, who allowed just four runs in three starts for Triple-A Norfolk to start the season. On the flip side, the O’s are quite familiar with Hill. Though they ended up being swept in NY, the O’s outhit the Yankees yesterday, only to be undone by FIVE errors in the field. They’ll play cleaner today and also have the edge over Boston when it comes to the bullpen. O’s relievers have a 2.35 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at home. 8* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5)

8* Under Padres/Pirates (6:35 ET): San Diego is coming off a series in Cincinnati where all three games managed to go Over the total. The Padres averaged a healthy eight runs per game versus the Reds and the favorable schedule continues this weekend with a visit to Pittsburgh. I think you can probably make a case that the Pirates and Reds are the two worst teams in MLB right now (Nationals are pretty bad as well). Playing in the tough NL West (Dodgers & Giants both off to strong starts), San Diego needs to continue to rack up victories at the expense of the league’s bottom feeders. 

But I think the better value tonight is on the Under. Yu Darvish will get the starting nod for the Padres here and he’s been outstanding in three of his four starts. There was the one outlier against the Giants that we’ll pretend never happened, but the other three starts have seen Darvish allow a total of just five hits in 18 ⅔ IP and only one run to score. His last two starts came against the Dodgers and Braves, both of whom obviously field stronger lineups than the Pirates, who have scored only three runs in their last two games. In six of the L10 games, Pittsburgh has been held to two runs or fewer. They are hitting .199 over the L7 games. 

The question now becomes - can Pittsburgh pitching keep San Diego hitting in check? Well, I think the Padres are due to regress a bit at the plate, considering they are bottom five in the NL in both expected batting average and expected slugging. The task falls on Zach Thompson, who has admittedly not been good in his L2 starts, but he was charged with five unearned runs his last time out. His ERA of 10.80 is obviously only going to get better. San Diego is only hitting .229 the L7 games, so it’s been lucky to average 5.0 rpg over the same stretch. 8* Under Padres/Pirates

10* Utah (10:00 ET): The Jazz are facing elimination at home in Game 6, something they would not have expected after previously “stealing” the home court advantage away with a Game 1 win in Dallas. The Mavericks played the first three games of this series without superstar Luka Doncic, but won two of the three. After losing Game 4 (here in Salt Lake City) by a single points, the Mavs bounced back and romped to a 102-77 victory as three-point favorites. I know it was a terrible call by me taking Utah in that game, but I still believe they are the better team and we are getting a great price on them at home. 

After some concern he’d miss Game 6, Jazz PG Deron Williams is likely to play tonight. But I think that the bigger boost comes from returning home where the team is 30-13 SU on the year and outscoring visiting teams by 9.2 PPG. Dallas is not as staunch defensively on the road as it is at home and the Jazz are going to shoot MUCH better from three-point land tonight than they did in Game 5. How could they not? Their 3 of 30 performance on Tuesday was the worst percentage in NBA Playoff history! 

In the regular season, Utah was tied for the most efficient offense in the NBA and they average 116.4 PPG at home. It has been rather shocking to see them get held to 104 points or less in four of the five games in this series. They did shoot 56.5% from the floor here in Game 3 though, so they’ve shown to be capable. Game 5 marked the first time in the series that the Jazz were underdogs. Considering where the lines were set in the first four games, needing only a SU win tonight seems like a great value. I look for Utah to force a Game 7. 10* Utah

8* Under Suns/Pelicans (7:30 ET): Still without Devin Booker, top seed Phoenix looks to close out New Orleans on Thursday. The Suns got a career playoff-high 31 points from Mikal Bridges in the Game 5 victory, which snapped a three-game run for the Over in the series. The final score was 112-97 and obviously had as much to do with what the Suns accomplished at the defensive end. They held CJ McCollum, the Pelicans’ leading scorer, to just 7 of 22 shooting. With Bridges highly unlikely to match his production from Tuesday, look for Game 6 to stay Under as well. 

Chris Paul also had a nice bounce back in Game 5, scoring 22 points and dishing out 11 assists. Only Magic Johnson and LeBron James have more 20-10 (points-assists) games in NBA playoff history than Paul’s 31. But he had just four points the last time the teams played in New Orleans and the team finished with just 103. Phoenix was quite dreadful from three-point range in the two games here, making only 11 of 53 attempts. They really miss Booker in that regard. 

Now there are reports that Booker may return tonight. But I wouldn’t expect him to be a dominant player in his first game back. With Paul and Bridges also likely to regress, that means less points than usual from Phoenix, who is 7-3 Under its L10 games. New Orleans might be slightly better on offense than they were in Game 5, but I’m also not expecting them to get to the free throw line as much. The L2 games have seen them get 77 attempts. 8* Under Suns/Pelicans

9* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): Wednesday marked just the second time all season that a Rays’ starter got a win. Drew Rasmussen threw six scoreless innings of two-hit ball, with nine strikeouts, and on the flip side TB caught a bit of a break as Seattle’s starter (Marco Gonzales) had to leave after recording just one out, because he was struck by a line drive. The Rays’ rotation remains somewhat in tatters, resulting in Jeffrey Springs getting the call as an opener for this afternoon’s series finale. That may not sound ideal, but this is a strategy that the club has made work for years and I’m a “seller” on the Mariners right now. 

Admittedly, Seattle has had Tampa Bay’s number the last several years, winning 24 of the last 34 head to head matchups including seven of the last nine. But this is a team I firmly believe will regress in 2022. They overachieved greatly last season, winning 90 games despite a -51 run differential. To put those numbers in their proper context, the Rays won 100 games in ‘21 and had a +206 run differential (both AL bests). The Mariners haven’t been hitting much in the early going as they’ll come into today’s matinee with a .197 team batting average on the road. Starter Chris Flexen is 1-2 through three starts and really struggled the one time he pitched on the road, allowing three runs in just 4 ⅓ IP.

In two previous starts vs. the Rays, Flexen has a 6.52 ERA. He’ll face a lineup that I believe is due to “break out” today. Not concerned about the Rays going with the opener as their bullpen has been solid so far (1.05 WHIP). TB pitching has held opposing hitters to a .208 average thus far. This has traditionally been a solid home team, especially when favored in the -125 to -175 range (36-15 L3 seasons). Springs has made seven appearances so far this season, all in relief, and has yet to allow a run (just two hits). 9* Tampa Bay

9* Detroit (1:10 ET): I realize that these are two teams trending in opposite directions right now, but I look for the Tigers (losers of four straight) to avoid the sweep today in Minnesota. The Twins have captured six in a row, all against division rivals, and now lead the AL Central with a 10-8 record. They are, in fact, the lone team in the division with a winning record right now. Over the course of the six-game win streak, Minnesota pitching has surrendered only 11 runs total. But yesterday marked the 1st time this season Detroit was shut out and I like their starter (Tarik Skubal) for Thursday. 

Skubal did not allow an earned run in either of his L2 starts, holding Colorado and Kansas City to just one unearned run in 11 ⅔ IP. He also did not walk a single batter in either while striking out 13. Furthermore, the Tigers’ bullpen has been outstanding thus far, posting a 2.25 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Bottom line is that I do not see them giving up many runs this afternoon. Now it's up to the offense to turn things around.

Like Skubal, the Twins’ Bailey Ober has made three starts so far in 2022. His numbers are similar, but Ober has allowed 2 HRs while Skubal hasn’t allowed any. I realize that the Tigers have not done a lot of scoring lately, but they did put 13 runs on the board Saturday. Do I think they’ll do that here? No. But with Skubal on the bump, they won’t have to. Ober had a 5.79 ERA in two starts vs. Detroit last season and the Tigers have won five straight times when dropping the first two games of a series. 9* Detroit

10* Over Bulls/Bucks (7:30 ET): Of all the first round series, East or West, this is the one where I was most confident in who the winner would be. Defending champion Milwaukee came in as huge favorites and though they dropped Game 2 here at home (114-110), they made short work of the Bulls in Chicago, winning the two games by a combined 54 points. That was even without Khris Middleton, who remains out indefinitely after suffering a knee injury in Game 2. The odds are high that the Bucks finish this series Wednesday night at home and honestly I’m a little leery of laying this many points. But I do see value on the Game 5 total. 

The previous four games have all stayed Under. But we’re now a long way from the Game 1 total, which closed at 230.5. While Chicago has been held to 95 points or less in each of its three losses, I do see them scoring more here with the season hanging in the balance. Game 4 just barely stayed Under and that was with the Bulls shooting just 38.9% overall and 9 of 36 from behind the arc. DeRozan, Vucevic & LaVine were a combined 3 of 17 from downtown. I think it’s quite reasonable to expect them to improve upon those percentages here tonight. They are 13-5 Over this season after being held to 100 or less this season. 

But the Bulls’ problem is going to be on the defensive end. Milwaukee has scored 110 or more in three straight, but Game 4 marked the first time they exceeded their season average of 115.2 PPG (which led the Eastern Conference). They’ve made 46 threes over the L3 games and shot 51% from long range in Game 4. Alex Caruso left the last game with a concussion and is questionable for Game 5. Back in the regular season, we saw how bad the Bulls were defensively when both Caruso and Lonzo Ball (season over) were out. The Bucks are 20-8 Over L28 as home favorites. 10* Over Bulls/Bucks

10* Run Line Pittsburgh (6:35 ET): So the Pirates have made a pitching change for tonight, electing to go with Dillon Peters in place of Bryce Wilson, who has been scratched for a still unspecified reason. I’m sticking with the Bucs to stay within one run of the Brewers on Wednesday night, taking them on the run line. I know that things are looking rather dire in Pittsburgh at this moment, as the team lost again to Milwaukee last night, this time by a score of 12-8. The Bucs are now 0-4 in 2022 against the Brew Crew, but overall things may not be as bad as they seem in the Steel City. 

The club is 8-9 overall and has a winning record here at PNC Park. Their YTD run differential of -32, third worst in all of MLB, is largely a byproduct of the one 21-0 drubbing they suffered at the hands of the Cubs over the weekend. It should be noted that while the Bucs did have that horrific loss on Saturday, they won the other three games at Wrigley Field. They are 8-5 when NOT facing the Brewers. Also, coming off a loss, the Pirates are 5-3. I think they’re due to beat Milwaukee here and Peters should pitch well. So far, he’s offered the club 10 ⅓ scoreless innings in relief with eight strikeouts. He’s picked up three wins. 

Milwaukee may have scored 12 runs yesterday, but they are still only hitting .211 for the year and have four one-run victories to their name. It’s hard to continuously beat the same team, especially a division rival, and this is where I see the Brew Crew “slipping up.” Aaron Ashby had four walks in his only previous start and allowed three runs in four innings. He also gave up a home run. Before last night’s win, the Brewers had not finished a game with double digit hits since the season opener. So expect their offensive production to go down here and Ashby isn’t someone you can expect to pitch deep into a game. Again, the home team does no worse than a one-run loss here. 10* Run Line Pittsburgh (+1.5)

10* Villarreal +1.5 (3:00 ET): Liverpool is obviously playing as well as any side in the entire world right now as they’ve won 12 straight here in Anfield and 14 of 15 overall. But it was a bit of a struggle Sunday against relegation-threatened Everton, despite the match ending up as a 2-0 final. The Reds were tied 0-0 until the 62 minute and now face their fourth fixture in the last 11 days and it’s a big one against Villarreal, the “surprise” semi finalist of the Champions League. The Yellow Submarine are fresh off a shocking upset of Bayern Munich in the quarterfinals and must be taken seriously in this tie. I’ll go with them on the goal line in the first leg, thinking they can easily keep this one within a one-goal margin. 

Villarreal may only currently be seventh in La Liga, but don’t let that fool you. They have the third best YTD goal differential in the Spanish top flight and won last year’s Europa League. Unlike the other three semifinalists though, there is no clear path back into next season’s Champions League for the Yellow Submarine. They won’t make the top four in La Liga, so all their focus is on this fixture whereas Liverpool must also stay concerned with its ongoing battle for the top spot in the Premier League, not to mention the FA Cup Final against Chelsea in a couple weeks. 

Already in the knockout stage, Villarreal has toppled two heavyweights, Juventus and Bayern. This is their biggest mountain to climb, but they should be up for the challenge. Only once since the start of December have the Yellow Submarine been beaten by more than one goal. Liverpool did concede four times in the quarterfinals to Benefica, a much lesser side. While Gerard Moreno is out for Villarreal, the schedule sets up quite nicely for them here as they were off last weekend and haven’t been on the pitch in over a week. They’re also unbeaten in five straight competitions, having scored in all of them. 10* Villarreal Goal Line (+1.5)

9* NY Mets (1:15 ET): What else can be said about the Mets at this point, other than that they are clearly one of baseball’s top teams in the early going? Only the Dodgers and Giants (two best records last year) can claim better run differentials, but the Mets have the best record at 14-5. This afternoon, they go for the sweep here in St. Louis while sending Carlos Carrasco to the hill. I had the Mets last night as they shut the Cardinals out 3-0 behind six strong innings from Chris Bassitt. Look for them to finish off the sweep. 

Carrasco vs. St. Louis starter Steven Matz (who used to be with the Mets) looks like a classic pitching mismatch. It clearly favors the Mets as Carrasco checks in with a 1.47 ERA and 0.60 WHIP through three starts. Now, two of the Mets’ five losses have come with Carrasco on the mound. But, given his numbers, you can’t blame Carrasco. He has a 2.84 ERA in two prior starts vs. St. Louis and look for him to dominate them again as the Cards simply aren’t hitting right now. They have scored just 14 runs their previous seven games and managed only three hits last night. 

Matz was lit up in his first start of the year where he gave up seven runs in three innings (to Pittsburgh!) Since then he’s been a lot better, but he also got to face lowly Cincinnati his last time out. As I mentioned in yday’s analysis, the Cardinals’ record is a bit phony as they’ve gotten to face both the Pirates and Reds (two worst teams in baseball?) Look for the Mets to make it a season-high four straight wins here. 9* NY Mets

10* NY Mets (7:45 ET): The Mets have certainly gotten off to a great start as they have the second best record in all of baseball (13-5) and the third best run differential (+35). They’ve already opened up a 4.5 game lead in the NL East where they are the only team currently above .500. Now Mets’ fans will recall last season’s hot start, which meant nothing in the end as they faltered in the second half and ceded the pennant to the eventual World Series Champion Braves. But this team certainly “feels” a bit different as evident by last night’s come from behind victory in St. Louis where they scored five times in the top of the ninth. 

I look for the Mets to now make it two in a row here at Busch Stadium on Tuesday. They send Chris Bassitt to the hill. Through three starts, Bassitt has a 3.00 ERA and 0.94 WHIP and that’s after getting knocked around by the Giants his last time out. Prior to that, Bassitt had surrendered just one run on five hits in 12 IP. He’s gone exactly six innings in all three starts, so the Mets’ bullpen may get a breather tonight. 

Can’t say the same for the St. Louis’ pen however, as hard-throwing Jordan Hicks is set to make only his second-career start. Hicks made it through only 46 pitches in his first start, a 5-0 loss to Miami and there were control issues. The Mets have been pretty patient at the plate thus far and can make HIcks pay. The Cardinals have played a pretty soft schedule to this points (Pittsburgh and Cincinnati), so some of their numbers are misleading. The way they lost last night was pretty demoralizing, so look for that to carry over to today. 10* NY Mets

10* Atlanta (7:30 ET): The Raptors, who were facing elimination, treated us well last night. So give me the Hawks plus the points, in the same situation on Tuesday. Now it’s not been a great series for Trae Young thus far as he’s averaging just 16.5 PPG and hitting only 20.8% from three-point range. But he is responsible for the Hawks’ only win here vs. Miami (hit the game-winning basket in Game 3) and you’ve got to believe he’s got one good game in him. With the team’s season on the line tonight, now is the perfect time for Young to “show up” and I think he will.

As a team, the Hawks have not been held under 100 pts in B2B games since early January. They finished the regular season tied with Utah for #1 in offensive efficiency. So I think it’s quite reasonable to expect them to rebound from the dismal 86-point effort in Game 4. Recall I had the Heat in that game. What’s changed here is that Atlanta’s season is now on the line and we’re getting a healthy amount of points. I know they failed to cover the spread in the first two games here in Miami, but it seems as if the public sentiment is totally against them coming into tonight and it’s a great chance to fire on an undervalued underdog. 

Remember that Miami is without PG Kyle Lowry. It didn’t seem to matter in Game 4, but not having Lowry is significant. Clint Capella returned for Atlanta in the last game and while he had just two points and seven rebounds, I expect him to play better tonight. It goes without saying that you should expect more points here from Young, who had only nine points in Game 4 and didn’t make a single free throw or two-point basket. Jimmy Butler had 36 for the Heat, but he typically follows up a big game with a subpar one. That’s a bigger deal now that Lowry is out. I can’t guarantee that the Hawks keep their season alive, but they’ll at least cover tonight. 10* Atlanta

7* Philadelphia (6:45 ET): After losing Sunday night, 1-0 to Milwaukee, the Phillies quickly rebounded to take the series opener from Colorado 8-2. Things actually got off to a dicey start for the home team, as they trailed 2-0 after two innings, but they took over from there and three Rockies’ errors certainly aided in the cause. The eight runs scored last night were more than the Phils had in the entire series vs. Milwaukee. I think the offensive resurgence continues tonight and the home team wins again. 

Tonight’s starting pitching matchup is a rematch from last week as German Marquez goes for Colorado while Zach Eflin toes the rubber for Philadelphia. Eflin won last week’s meeting, 9-6, although both starters allowed four runs. Marquez allowed three homers though. It was the lone game captured by the Phillies at Coors Field, but as you know the Rockies are a lot worse on the road, evident by their poor 44-72 record away from home the L3 seasons. This will be Marquez’s first road start of 2022. Going back to last season, he is winless over six straight outings while posting a 7.12 ERA. 

The Phillies were expected to contend for a playoff berth this season, so a 7-10 record is definitely not what they were looking for. They are just 5-5 at home, however opponents are batting just .193 in those games, so the record (theoretically) should be a lot better. In his only home start thus far, Eflin tossed four shutout innings of two-hit ball. The Rockies are 16-44 L60 road games vs. a right-handed starter. 7* Philadelphia

analysis 8* Over Real Madrid/Manchester City (3:00 ET): In the first semifinal of this year’s Champions League, we’ve got the team that will win La Liga (Real Madrid) against the current leaders of the Premier League (Manchester City). It should be a good one. In the quarterfinals, Man City ousted last year’s La Liga Champions (Atletico Madrid), needing just a single goal to do so. It will certainly take more than that to defeat this year’s top team from the Spanish flight as Real Madrid comes in having delivered thrilling come from behind victories over PSG and Chelsea here in the knockout stage. 

Man City is undefeated here at the Etihad in Champions League play, going all the way back to September of 2018. So the EPL leaders will be confident heading into this first leg. However, they were not all that impressive against Atletico and had to survive a second half onslaught in the second leg just to advance. The good news is that the Citizens have scored 13 goals in their five home matches so far in this tournament. I’m expecting a lot more offense from them than what we saw in the quarterfinals. In three fixtures since, they’ve found the back of the net a total of 10 times, including a 5-1 win over Watford this past weekend.

Real Madrid had to come from behind in the second leg vs. PSG to advance out of the Round of 16, then survived an early Chelsea barrage in the second leg of the quarterfinals. Los Blancos were down on aggregate in both ties and honestly are probably lucky to be here. However, with the exception of the 4-0 thumping they took from Barcelona, Real has scored multiple goals in every match since the start of March. They put three on the board last Wednesday vs. Osasuna and should have had more, but missed a pair of penalties. Man City’s backline is dealing with multiple absences heading into this one and Real’s Karim Benzema has seven goals in the last four UCL matches. 8* Over Real Madrid/Manchester City

8* Utah (9:30 ET): This will be the first time in the series that the Jazz are underdogs, so I’ll pounce on the opportunity as a win tonight would mean they can close the Mavs out in Salt Lake City on Thursday. Utah has failed to cover each of the last three games in this series, and 12 of 15 going back to the end of the regular season. But again, this is a rare opportunity where you’re getting them plus the points. Not since a game at Boston on 3/23 have the Jazz been more than a one-point underdog against anybody. This will be just the 12th time all season that they check in as dogs! 

Dallas got Luka Doncic back for Game 4, but it just wasn’t enough as they lost 100-99 on a Rudy Gobert dunk in the closing seconds. The Mavericks shot better than the Jazz on Saturday, from all ranges, so that’s a pretty brutal loss with their star returning. Utah has not shot well from three-point range in this series, going 32% or worse in three of the four games. Perhaps you’ve got to credit the Dallas’ defense, but my gut says the Jazz will fire efficiently from long-range tonight. They were one of the top three-point shooting teams in the league this year and also finished tied (w/ Atlanta) for the league-lead in offensive efficiency. 

Doncic had 30 points in his return, but it really wasn’t that great of a game and he seemed to have a NEGATIVE effect on the Mavs’ offensive flow. Only one of Doncic’s teammates (Jalen Brunson) scored more than 11 points and the entire bench contributed just 13 points. I’m a little shocked that Dallas is +51 in three-point attempts for the series, considering Utah was a top-two team in that category during the regular season. The Mavs are just 1-5-1 ATS their L7 games as a playoff favorite. Considering that Utah was favored here in the first two games (granted, no Doncic) and how many they were favored by in the two games at home, this seems to be an overadjustment by the oddsmakers. 8* Utah

10* Toronto (8:00 ET): The Raptors were able to fend off elimination on Saturday, taking Game 4 (at home) by a score of 110-102 as 2.5-point underdogs. As you know, no team in NBA history has ever come back to win a series after losing the first three games. So history is not on Toronto’s side as the series shifts back to Philadelphia for Game 5. But I do like the points tonight as Scottie Barnes (NBA’s Rookie of the Year) has returned for the Raptors and you know that the team will be giving 100% with their season on the line. 

Now unfortunately, Barnes’ return for Game 4 coincided with the loss of PG Fred Van Vleet to a hip injury. However, I’m not sweating Van Vleet’s questionable status for this game. He’d become a bit of a defensive liability for the Raptors. That said, they did hold the 76ers to an average of 103 points in the two games in Toronto. I also expect the Raptors to shoot much better from three-point range than they did on Saturday. Winning - in spite of going 8 of 34 from behind the arc - was pretty impressive, if you think about it. Pascal Siakam played a heck of a game, scoring 15 of his team-high 34 points in the fourth quarter. 

Perhaps the biggest injury to make note of heading into Game 5 is on the Philly side as Joel Embiid has a torn ligament in his right thumb and it clearly affected him in the Game 4 loss when he went 7 of 16 from the field. It also didn’t help that James Harden was 5 of 17, including 2 of 8 on three-point attempts. Or that Tyrese Maxey, who had that 38-point effort in Game 1, has seen his own production drop in every game. He scored just 11 points in Game 4. While it’s certainly possible that Harden and/or Maxey play better tonight at home, I think that gets canceled out by the fact the Sixers won’t be +15 again from three-point land. In what oddsmakers project to be a fairly low-scoring tussle, taking the points is the way to go here. 10* Toronto

10* Boston (7:07 ET): The Red Sox come into this series a little bit wounded. After seizing the series opener in Tampa Bay on Friday (I had ‘em +140!), they would go on to drop the next two games. Boston’s record is now 7-9 on the year and they’re just a game up on last place Baltimore. Meanwhile, Toronto is in first place in the AL East with a 10-6 mark, although they too lost on Sunday, 8-7 at Houston in a game that went 10 innings. That snapped the Blue Jays’ four-game win streak. These teams just met last week in Boston with the Red Sox again taking the series opener, only to drop the next two games. Tonight, I’ll call for them to make it three straight wins in series openers. 

Monday’s starter for Toronto, Jose Berrios, probably has the most undeserved 3-0 TSR in all of baseball. Berrios has a 6.35 ERA and 2.03 WHIP, yet somehow the Blue Jays have won every time he’s taken the mound. Now the poor individual numbers are mostly due to one start, his first of 2022, where Berrios surrendered four runs in one-third of an inning. He allowed 3 HRs in his first two starts, but was admittedly much better in his last start, which was against the Red Sox. Berrios held them to just one run over six innings. 

But Boston did pound out eight hits off Berrios and 10 for the game. The fact they scored only one run was very unlucky and the difference in the game ended up being a five-run second inning by the Blue Jays. I don’t see that happening again here with Nathan Eovaldi starting for the Red Sox. Eovaldi has allowed 3 ER or less in all three starts thus far and he was on the mound for the series opening win against Toronto last week. He allowed just one run on seven hits over 4 ⅔ IP. Going back to last season, Eovaldi also has exhibited tremendous control as he’s not walked more than two batters in any of his L22 starts. 10* Boston

10* Over Leeds United/Crystal Palace (3:00 ET): Crystal Palace has been held without a goal in each of its last two fixtures, one of those in the FA Cup (2-0 semifinal loss to Chelsea) and then a 1-0 loss to Newcastle here in the Premier League last week. The Eagles ought to be a lot higher in the EPL table; at least based on their YTD goal differential being better than the five teams directly ahead of them and the fact they are ninth in xPts (expected points). While I’m not confident enough in CP to bet them to win today, I do certainly anticipate they’ll break their scoreless streak in this fixture. 

Leeds United is still fighting to fend off relegation, though another win and you’ve got to think they’re probably safe for next season. Unlike Crystal Palace (+2 GD), Leeds has not been particularly impressive in several underlying metrics (they have the EPL’s third worst GD), so I can’t say that they’re unfortunate to be in the position they are currently in. Fighting for survival has brought improved form, however. The Whites are unbeaten in their last four competitions and just put three goals on the board last week in a clean sheet victory over hapless Watford. They’ve scored nine goals in the four-match unbeaten run, scoring 2+ in three of the fixtures. 

Crystal Palace is definitely a stronger side here at Selhurst Park where they haven’t conceded a single goal in the L3 matches. They’ve also scored 25 goals in their 16 matches here this season. The Eagles are the strongest attacking team that Leeds will have faced in some time. Expect goals here as Leeds’ so- called “defensive improvement” has a lot to do with whom they’ve faced recently, namely four of the other bottom seven sides, including the bottom two. 10* Over Leeds United/Crystal Palace

8* New Orleans (9:30 ET): The top-seeded Suns may look like a bargain at this number, but remember they are without leading scorer Devin Booker and won Game 3 by only three points. It was a close game most of the way and the Pelicans caught a tough break in the second quarter when forward Jaxson Hayes was ejected. That led to the Suns dominating points in the paint. The loss of Booker really can’t be understated and I expect New Orleans to spring an upset here, just like they did in Game 2 at Phoenix. 

New Orleans’ overall record this season is a little misleading as they started 3-16 SU. The acquisition of CJ McCollum proved to be a difference maker as he and Brandon Ingram form an excellent scoring tandem that’s averaged 55.7 PPG in this series. I expect that duo to get more help tonight from Jonas Valanciunas and Larry Nance Jr, who combined to make only two shots in Game 3. The Pelicans have lost B2B home games just once since the All-Star Break. They are 6-1 ATS L7 games off an ATS loss. 

The loss of Booker was clearly felt as the Suns were a horrid 4 of 26 from three-point range in Game 3. They’ll surely improve upon that percentage tonight, but I wouldn’t look for them to go 40 of 61 (66%!) from two-point range again. The Suns have struggled to defend the three-point line in this series as the Pelicans are shooting 43.5% from behind the arc. Winning twice on the road is tough in the playoffs, especially when you are without your best player. Take the points. 8* New Orleans

7* Philadelphia (7:08 ET): This is a rubber match between two playoff hopefuls in the Senior Circuit. Milwaukee won yesterday, 5-3, with a four run fifth inning being the difference and it included Willy Adames stealing home. But the Brewers are one of many teams struggling to hit in the early part of the season. They are at just .209 for the year. Meanwhile, the Phillies are a top five team in both batting average and OPS, so I expect a repeat of the season opener, which the home team won 4-2. 

Veteran Aaron Nola will get the nod Sunday night for the Phils. This will be his fourth start and he’s been better than his 5.53 ERA suggests. His WHIP is only 1.16 and he’s gotten better each start. Last time out, Nola impressively allowed just two runs in 5 ⅓ at Coors Field. While the Phils didn’t get the win that day, I like their chances here against the scuffling Brewers, who are scoring just 3.1 rpg on the road so far. I mentioned the low team batting average earlier. It’s bottom five in all of MLB and over the last seven games, that number dips to .201. 

Eric Lauer will oppose Nola tonight. The Brewers have won both of Lauer’s previous two starts, but they came against Pittsburgh and Baltimore, arguably the two worst teams in all of baseball. While the Brew Crew went a combined 5-1 against those two teams, they haven’t won any other series. Outside of the one inning yesterday, the Phillies have largely controlled this series, allowing only three runs. In front of a national TV audience, I expect them to take this series. 7* Philadelphia

10* Miami (7:00 ET): The Heat are one Trae Young floater away from being up 3-0 in this first round series and thus they could have been in position to close the Hawks out here on Sunday. But Young made that floater, giving Atlanta a much needed 111-110 win on Friday as they rallied back from a 14-point 4Q deficit. Still, I don’t think there’s any dispute who the better team is and I expect that team (the Heat!) to bounce back with a win in Game 4. 

Kyle Lowry left Game 3 with a hamstring injury and did not practice on Saturday. But even if he can’t go, I fully anticipate the Heat putting plenty of points on the board tonight. They’ve scored 110 or more in eight straight games and are up against a team with the worst regular season defensive efficiency rating among playoff qualifiers. After shooting 43.2% from three-point range in the first two games, the Heat were down to 31.1% (14 of 45) in Game 3. While some of that has to do with the change in venue, I’d expect improved shooting from behind the arc tonight.

Despite the late heroics in the last game, Young is not having a great series. He scored only eight points in Game 1, then had 10 turnovers (career-high) in Game 2. Through three quarters in Game 3, Young had just 14 pts on 3 of 9 shooting. Over his L9 games vs. Miami, Young has averaged only 21.3 points in large part to the Heat’s ability to defend on-ball picks. I realize that Atlanta is a much better team at home (21-3 SU here since 1/17) but they are just 2-9 ATS this season off a SU win as a dog. Lay the short number. 10* Miami

10* Oakland (4:07 ET): After losing five in a row, the Rangers have turned around to win three straight and now are in position to sweep the division rival A’s here in Oakland. I cannot see that transpiring, so I’m backing the home team in Sunday’s finale. Thus far, it has been Texas’ pitching that has been the key in this series as they’ve allowed the A’s to score just one run in the two games. That’s a far cry from the start of the season when they allowed 75 runs in the first 12 games. The Rangers’ staff has still allowed more runs than every other American League team in 2022 and I expect the home team to avoid the sweep here. 

It will be Garrett Richards “opening” Sunday’s game, followed by Spencer Howard, who is returning from a stint on the DL. Richards has made four relief appearances this season, but this will be his first start. He’s yet to go more than one inning in any of his previous four appearances. As for Howard, he was hammered in his lone start, giving up six runs in three innings vs. Toronto. I just don’t think you can be too confident in this duo if you’re a Rangers’ fan. Also, Texas is just 3-15 its last 18 games as a road favorite and 1-8 its last nine as a favorite overall (goes back to last season). 

The only runs that the Rangers scored yesterday came in the eighth inning after a replay review. So I’m expecting a solid outing here from A’s starter Cole Irvin, who pitched well here at home his last time out. Admittedly, it was against Baltimore, but the southpaw gave up just one run over five innings in what was his best start to date. This will be Irvin’s fourth start of 2022 overall. Prior to Saturday, Oakland had been on a 5-0 run off a loss. They are 12-3 after allowing two runs or less the previous game (goes back to last season, obviously) and won the only other time this season they were coming off a shutout loss. 10* Oakland

10* Over Wolves/Burnley (9:00 AM ET): In all of Europe’s “Big 4” leagues, there isn’t a side that has been more fortunate when it comes to conceding goals this season than Wolverhampton. The Wolves have conceded only 28 times, fourth fewest in the Premier League. However, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 44.36, which would rank 10th. To put that kind of overachieving in its proper perspective, there are only two other sides in the “Big 4” to have a positive difference of more than nine between their xGA and actual goals allowed. (Those would be Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld of the Bundesliga). 

The Wolves are still chasing down a spot in the Europa Conference League. They are three points behind West Ham, but have a match in hand as a result of last week’s fixture vs. Man City getting postponed (because Man City was competing in the FA Cup). A 1-0 loss to Newcastle did the Wolves no favors two weeks ago. But before that, they’d found the back of the net twice against both Aston Villa and Leeds United. Though Burnley isn’t even close to having the worst defensive record in the EPL, you’ve got to like Wolverhampton’s chances of getting on the scoresheet in this one as Burnley had conceded a goal in eight straight matches prior to last week’s 2-0 clean sheet over Southampton. 

That win inched Burnley closer to safety as they desperately try to escape the relegation zone. They’ll enter Sunday 18th in the table, one point behind Everton, who must face Liverpool today. So an opportunity is there for the Clarets to move up. Given what I said earlier about Wolverhampton, I expect Burnley will get on the scoresheet here. Feeling that both sides will score in this fixture makes the Over an obvious call. 10* Over Wolves/Burnley