10* Under Rockets/Spurs (8:05 ET): While this series has been nothing but blowouts, it's squared up at two games apiece, making tonight's result absolutely critical to both sides. As I said prior to Game 3 (won by the Spurs, 103-92), the recent rash of Overs on the San Antonio side has surprised me. I did win w/ the Under in Game 3 (cashed Houston in Gm 4), but that is the ONLY time the Under has cashed for them in the L8 games. The Over is now 10-2 their past 12 games overall. However, remember that the O/U lines were low in the Memphis series and that this was the #1 team in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Games 2 and 3 saw them do the "unthinkable" and that's hold the Rockets below 100 pts in consecutive games. Thus, I'm on the Under here in Game 5.

From the Spurs' perspective, the O/U lines in this series have been high. This is a team that allows just 98.5 PPG for the year and their games average 203.8 PPG total. Houston had NEVER been held below 100 pts in B2B games prior to San Antonio turning the trick in Games 2 and 3 and in Gm 3, the Spurs held them to a season-low 92 points. In the Rockets' two wins in the series, they have gone 41 of 93 from three-point range. In the two losses, they are just 23 of 73. That's not only far fewer makes, but also far fewer attempts. In the regular season, the Spurs were the top team in the league in defending the three-point, so as I've been saying, they are uniquely suited to stop Houston's main offensive weapon. 

Both teams have now sustained significant injuries in this series. The Spurs have lost Tony Parker the rest of the way, which won't have too significant an impact on the defensive end, but will on offense. In the two full games w/o Parker, they've averaged just 103.5 PPG. Meanwhile, Houston has lost Nene' for the rest of the season. He had been averaging 10.8 PPG in the playoffs, so it's a significant loss. I don't think the Rockets can count on bench players Eric Gordon and Lou Williams to combine for 35 pts again like they did in Game 4. After all, the entire Rockets' bench scored all of 10 pts in Game 3. When guarded by fellow MVP candidate Kwahi Leonard, James Harden has really struggled in this series. He's shooting just 29 percent from the floor including 10 percent from three-point range. 10* Under Rockets/Spurs

8* NY Rangers (7:35 ET): Admittedly, I'm a bit "scared" of going against the Senators here due to whatever "voodoo" they've managed to concoct over their opponents this postseason. All seven playoff wins thus far have been by exactly a one goal margin w/ five of those coming in overtime. As I've pointed out numerous times, this team was actually outscored during the regular season, which is something you can't say about any other playoff team. They were also a pedestrian 22nd in goals scored. Saturday's 5-4 win over the Rangers marked the 1st time in the series they finished the game w/ an edge in shots on goal. So, what I'm saying here is that the Sens, a very mediocre team, would potentially be a huge underdog in the Eastern Conference Finals against whomever they face (Penguins or Capitals). Let's hope they don't even get there. 

So far, this series has seen the home team go 5-0. Thus, the Rangers have that working in their favor. For them, the real killer was blowing the two goal lead in Game 2 and losing in double overtime. But that's all "water under the bridge" now. As noted earlier, they have outshot Ottawa in the series. Neither goalie has been superb, but I still give the nod to Henrik Lundqvist, who has a .930 save percentage in this postseason. Meanwhile, his counterpart Craig Anderson has seen his own save percentage dip down to .878 the L4 games. Neither power play has done much in the series, but let's remember the Rangers finished 10th in the regular season while Ottawa was just 23rd. The Blueshirts were also the 4th highest scoring team in the league during the regular season. 

Lundqvist has typically excelled in this spot. When facing elimination and on home ice, he's 10-1 all-time w/ a spectacular 1.05 goals against average and .965 save percentage. While all three of Ottawa's wins in the series have come by one goal margins, the Rangers dominated both Games 3 and 4 here at MSG, winning 4-1 each time. So despite being down in the series, they've both outshot and outscored the Senators! It was the Rangers that finished the regular season w/ more points as well. Simply put, I continue to view New York as the better team here. 8* NY Rangers

8* Cleveland (7:05 ET): These teams met LY in the ALCS, but it's become clear to me that only one has a chance of making it back there in 2017. Despite losing yday's series opener, that would be the team that won LY's ALCS, Cleveland. We may have to pay a premium here, but there's a clear pitching mismatch on Tuesday w/ Carlos Carrasco being opposed by Mike Bolsinger. Bolsinger is a spot starter, only being turned to because Aaron Sanchez is still dealing w/ a blister on his finger. Carrasco not only has a 2.18 ERA, but a superb 0.822 WHIP in his six starts so far. The Tribe will obviously need to start hitting, something they've not always done for Carrassco this year, but Bolsinger being on the hill should provide them that opportunity. 

Yesterday aside, it has not been a great start to the season for the Blue Jays. Due to several key free agent losses, they were expected to take a tumble down the standings in 2017, but that tumble has turned into a freefall as their record is just 12-20 through 32 games, which is second worst in the American League. Furthermore, they have a run differential of -21, which is tied for third worst in the American League. They've only gotten to play 13 home games so far and their five home victories are tied for the fewest in all of baseball. They're just 3-9 off a win. As a big league starter, Bolsinger is just 8-16 w/ a 4.61 ERA in 37 career appearances. I envision tonight being the spot where Cleveland's offense finally gets back on track.

The Tribe shouldn't need a ton of offense w/ Carrasco on the bump. He has won all three of his road starts this season, posting a 1.83 ERA, the second lowest among all American League starters away from home. He has allowed 3 ER or fewer in all six starts and had he gotten one more out in the first start of the year, then he'd be 6 for 6 in terms of quality starts. What's perhaps most impressive w/ Carrasco is the fact he has allowed six hits or fewer in every start! He had control problems in one start (4.16 vs. Detroit), but other than that, his KW ratio is 34-3 (39-8 overall). 8* Cleveland

10* Oakland (10:05 ET): I've readily admitted that the A's getting the "sharper dollars" for their weekend set w/ Detroit confounded me. It happened in all three games and they came away w/ two wins, both made possible by the typical meltdowns from the Tigers bullpen. However, here they'll get my endorsement due to falling into one of my favorite MLB handicapping situations, that being seeking revenge for a previous sweep. The Angels took all three games when these AL West rivals last met, which was at the end of April. However, two of the games were decided by one runs (identical 2-1 scores) and the truth of the matter is that the Halos haven't been that great since that series. They've lost four of five coming into tonight. 

One of the games in the previous series between these two featured a Ricky Nolasco-Kendall Graveman pitching duel. Those two starters square off again in Monday's opener. Nolasco allowed just one run and three hits in 5 2/3 IP vs. Oakland on 4.27, but last time out he gave up four runs and eight hits in just 4 1/3 as the Angels lost 8-7 to the Mariners. Nolasco, who battled cramping in the loss to Seattle, has been a lot worse on the road thus far, posting a 5.06 ERA and 1.687 WHIP. The Halos' offense has also suffered on the road, scoring only 3.2 runs per game while batting a collective .226. Not surprisingly then, the team's record is just 6-11 outside of Anaheim. While I've pointed to Oakland's poor run differential in the past, note that the Angels have been outscored by 20 runs themselves this seaosn.

This is actually the third meeting of the year between Nolasco and Graveman. Graveman took the first, here in Oakland, part of a four-game series the teams ended up splitting. So, again, you can see how homefield advantage matters to the two starters. Despite the differing results, Graveman posted identical stat lines in the two starts against the Angels, allowing only 2 ER in 6 IP both times. He has a 3.28 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Halos. Oakland's offense has also been a bit more prolific compared to LA's in recent days. I think a real key here is the fact Nolasco has allowed multi-HR's in four of his six starts so far. That's definitely not good. I'm not a buyer in the A's over the long-term, but I definitely like them in tonight's spot. 10* Oakland

8* Over Nationals/Orioles (7:05 ET): The annual Beltway Series is one of the highlights of the Interleague campaign and this year sees both the Nationals and Orioles currently in fine form. In fact, both have won two-thirds of their games, ranking them right at the top of the MLB standings. Baltimore just swept the White Sox here at Camden Yards over the weekend while Washington had a four-game win streak snapped Sunday by Philadelphia. For Monday's series opener, I expect plenty of runs as we have a high-scoring NL team playing in an AL park, which means they get to benefit from having the designated hitter in the lineup. Already, the Nats lead all of baseball in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging. That's w/ the pitcher coming up to bat in every game.

Given the impressive offensive production and the addition of the DH spot to the batting order, just imagine what the Nats should do here against embattled O's starter Kevin Gausman. Through seven starts, Gausman has a 7.55 ERA and 1.935 WHIP. He'd allowed five or more runs in three consecutive starts before getting ejected in the second inning his last time out. Prior to getting ejected (hit Xander Bogaerts), Gausman had already allowed a run. He has a poor 5.63 ERA in three career starts vs. Washington. Oh, by the way, not only do the Nats get to use the DH here, they'll also welcome Bryce Harper back to the lineup. Harper, who leads all NL hitters in walks,  runs scored and OBP, missed the entire series against the Phillies, but the team still averaged 5.0 rpg w/o him. He could be the DH here. 

Baltimore is no slouch offensively, although like Washington, many of their recent games have stayed Under the total. They shut out the White Sox (4-0) Sunday, but this is - clearly - a far more formidable offense that they'll be facing here. At the same time, the Orioles have tended to fare well against Nats' starter Gio Gonzalez. In nine career starts vs. the O's, Gonzalez is just 1-5 w/ a 3.88 ERA. Washington's bullpen is exactly setting the world on fire either w/ a 6.75 ERA and 1.520 WHIP on the road. Gonzalez and the bullpen will also be tested more by having to face an American League lineup. 8* Over Nationals/Orioles

10* Houston (9:05 ET): The Rockets opened this series w/ an impressive 126-99 win and cover as six-point chalk. Despite then getting blown out themselves in Game 2, their series' prospects were nevertheless looking pretty good as they were returning home and the Spurs are now w/o Tony Parker for the rest of the season. But, things have a funny way of working out sometimes as it was San Antonio taking care of business in Game 3 w/ a surprise 102-93 win and cover. Holding Houston below 100 pts in consecutive contests is no small achievement, but then again San Antonio was #1 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Still, I anticipate the Rockets bouncing back offensively tonight and squaring this series up at two games apiece. Lay the points. 

Game 3 actually marked the lowest scoring game for the Rockets ALL YEAR! That was after Game 2 marked their second lowest scoring game of the season. This is a team that had been held below 100 pts in only FIVE games during the regular season. Remember, they shot 22 of 50 from three-point range in Game 1 en route to scoring an impressive 126 points. So we know they're capable of exceeding their average PPG against San Antonio. Certainly, we should expect some sort of bounce back tonight. They average 116.3 PPG at home and James Harden did get back on track in Game 3 w/ 43 points. The problem was the bench totaling only 10 pts and nine of those came from one player, Eric Gordon. A team's supporting cast and reserves tend to play much better at home and in this department, I expect a huge upgrade for Houston in Game 4. 

The loss of Parker has yet to be felt by the Spurs, but it should soon take hold. LaMarcus Aldridge scored 26 pts in Game 3, but I would not expect a repeat of that tonight. He's averaged less than 15 PPG so far in the postseason and had just 19 pts total in the first two games. Again, this is unprecented territory w/ Houston coming off consecutive games where they were held under 100 pts. That did not happen a single time in the regular season! Following a SU Loss this season, the Rockets are 23-6 SU and 18-10-1 ATS, winning by an average of 9.3 points per game. This is a "must-win" game for them as they can't afford to go down 3-1 in the series w/ just one more game (at most) at home. 10* Houston

10* Under Yankees/Cubs (8:05 ET): The Yankees have come to Wrigley Field this weekend and solidified that they aren't to be taken lightly. They've won both games here and now find themselves in a position for what would still be considered a surprising sweep, if they can win again Sunday night. Friday afternoon saw the team wearing pinstripes stun the Cubs w/ a three-run ninth (had been shutout the first eight innings). That marked the first time in the L3 seasons that Chicago had blown a multi-run lead entering the ninth inning. Last night, it was a hot start by the Yankees bats that doomed the World Series Champs. A five-run first inning was the difference as NY won 11-6. Tonight, I look for a lower scoring affair as we have two strong starting pitchers going. Take the Under.

Luis Severino goes here for the Yanks. The team is only 2-3 when he pitches, but that record fails to paint an accurate picture of his overall performance. His WHIP is 0.949 and he's been hurt by a lack of run support recently. Of course, a lack of run support would be just fine here. While Severino did allow five runs his last time out, he'd allowed just six in his previous three starts where his KW ratio was 27-3. The home run ball has hurt him some, but luckily the wind is expected to be blowing in tonight at Wrigley. This will be his first time facing the Cubs and that's a good thing because his ERA is 3.20 in his career when facing an opponent for the very first time. Behind Severino is of course one of the top bullpens in the game. 

After yesterday, the Cubs are in dire need of a strong starting pitching performance. Fortunately, they have Jon Lester going here. In three home starts, Lester has a 1.50 ERA and 1.056 WHIP. He has been a bit shaky overall of late, but in his first three starts of the season he allowed only two runs in 18 IP. Remember that the Yanks lineup should be theoretically weaker here w/ the loss of designated hitter. If the Cubs are able to get a lead and hold on here, it would be beneficial as we then have a shot at avoiding having to play the bottom of the ninth, which many times can be the difference between a win and a loss in betting MLB totals. The vast majority of the Yankees offense in this series has come in just two innings, the ninth Friday and the first Saturday. Lester is a clear upgrade over yday's Cubs starter, Brett Anderson, who may or may not be hurt. 10* Under Yankees/Cubs

10* Under Ducks/Oilers (7:05 ET): Edmonton returns home looking to avoid elimination tonight. They've lost three in a row to Anaheim, the most recent coming in controversial fashion Friday night. I was on the Ducks in Game 5 and quite frankly was very fortunate to come away a winner as they had to rally back from a 3-0 hole in the final minutes of the third period. The win marked the first time in Stanley Cup Playoff HISTORY that a team rallied back from a three-goal deficit in the final four minutes of regulation to force overtime. The game-tying goal was the controversial one as Edmonton called for goalie interference, but the referees did NOT see it that way. What's not controversial is Anaheim outshot Edmonton by an ungodly 64-38 margin in Game 5! So, I can't fade them, even though it was the second straight game they fell behind by at least two goals and won in extra time. The amount of scoring that's taken place in each of Anaheim's three wins in the series is a bit surprising, however, and that has me calling for an Under in tonight's Game 6. 

Obviously, any Under bettor from Game 5 has to be "kicking themselves" considering it looked like they had one "in the bag" going into the final minutes of regulation. Anaheim hadn't scored a single time and it would take the same number of scores in the final four minutes as we'd seen in the first 56 minutes. But it happened. Edmonton blowing multi-goal leads B2B times will not be looked at fondly if this series ends up being their last of the season. But I'm not willing to write the Oilers' chances off just yet. All things considered, Cam Talbot had a remarkable performance in Game 5 w/ 60 saves. Granted, the Ducks have scored on him 14x in the L3 games, but that's pretty surprising considering they only ranked 18th in goals scored during the regular season. They are 14-9 Under this season after scoring 4+ goals in the previous game.

Also, the Ducks ranked third in the league in goals allowed during the regular season. So the rash of high scoring victories is somewhat uncommon for them. The same actually holds true for Edmonton, who has not gone Over in four consecutive contests at any point this season! The Under is 16-9 in Oilers' home games this year if the O/U line is 5.5. For the series, they are averaging just 30.2 shots per game. That's made life easier on Ducks goalie John Gibson for sure. Considering what's on the line here (Edmonton's season!), I do not expect a wide open game. 10* Under Ducks/Oilers

6* Baltimore (7:05 ET): Typically, I don't play this large of a favorite, but I'll make an exception here as Saturday lines up to be an incredibly easy win for the Orioles. I don't know how he does it, but skipper Buck Showalter continues to defy the critics and the advanced stats, almost on a yearly basis. Right now, he's got the O's battling w/ the Yankees for the top spot in the American League East and he's done it despite missing LY's top starting pitcher, Chris Tillman. One of the big reasons for the team's success has been tonight's starter, Dylan Bundy, stepping up in a major way. Bundy is 4-1 so far (5-1 TSR) w/ a 1.82 ERA and 1.034 WHIP. Comparing him to White Sox starter Dylan Covey seems like a "no-contest." After taking yday's series opener 4-2, Baltimore should have no problem winning again tonight at Camden Yards.

The White Sox being over .500 at this point is definitely a surprise. Dealing Chris Sale to Boston in the offseason signaled this was to be a rebuilding year and most projected them to finish last in the AL Central. However, thanks to some surprisingly good starting pitching (fewest # of runs allowed in the American League!), the team has stayed afloat over the season's first month. That said, Covey has had little to do w/ success on that side of the ledger. Through four starts, he has a 7.29 ERA and 1.762 WHIP. He's been hit hard in both road starts thus far, giving up a total of 14 runs in just 11 2/3 IP. He's allowed five home runs as well. Last time out, he gave up six runs to the worst offense in all of MLB (Kansas City), which is clearly not a good sign - at all.

Meanwhile, Bundy is 6 for 6 in terms of quality starts and has allowed 2 ER or fewer five times. Aside from one start (on 4.26 vs. Tampa Bay), he hasn't allowed any home runs. Interestingly, this will be his 1st time facing a non-division opponent this year. But he's been even more lights out here in Camden w/ a 1.33 ERA and 0.836 WHIP and the team has won all three times he's started. Tonight is a very favorable matchup for him as the White Sox are among the lowest scoring teams in the American League and are also bottom five in baseball in both slugging and OBP. 6* Baltimore

10* Over Capitals/Penguins (7:15 ET): Could it really happen again? For a second straight year, Washington won the President's Trophy (most points during regular season), but they again are facing elimination at the hands of the rival Penguins in the second round. Last year was a six-game series and if the Caps don't win tonight, this year's will be even shorter. Game 4 in Pittsburgh was a particularly brutal setback as they outshot the Pens 38-18, only to come up short on the scoreboard, 3-2. Given their poor playoff history, I just don't feel comfortable supporting the Caps (even at home!) in this situation, but I do like the Over. These teams have now played eight times this season. All eight times they have combined for at least five goals. In fact, in the past 17 head to head battles, only two times have they NOT combined for at least five goals. 

To give you an idea of the kind of value we're getting here, Pittsburgh has played only four road games all season where the O/U line was set at 5.0. The Over is 3-0-1 in those four games. This was the top scoring team in the league during the regular season (#3 on the power play) and they still managed three goals despite only 18 shots on Wednesday. It stands to reason that they'll have a lot more scoring chances tonight, especially if Sidney Crosby (concussion) returns to the ice. There has been only one game this postseason where the Pens failed to score three times. Capitals goalie Braden Holtby, who certainly was on the short list of Vezina contenders after the regular season, has looked positively mortal in this series w/ a terrible .867 save percentage. 

If tonight is the end for Washington, I'm not sure where the franchise goes from here. They've outshot Pittsburgh in every game, averaging 35.5 per game. Pittsburgh's one albatross is giving up too many shots as they were bottom five in that department during the regular season and have allowed at least 32 in every game during the postseason. Eventually, that has to catch up w/ them, right? Perhaps tonight is the night that it does as goalie Marc-Andre Fleury's save percentage on the road this year is just .893. Let's not forget that Washington was tied w/ Pittsburgh for the third best power play in the regular season and also ranked #3 in goals per game. It sounds like Alex Ovechkin will be double-shifting in this game as the Caps aren't getting anything from their third and fourth lines in this series. Having their best player on the ice for more time should naturally increase their chances of scoring. 10* Over Capitals/Penguins

10* Atlanta (7:10 ET): #ImWithTeheran - The Braves were humiliated in their new ballpark last night, losing 10-0 to the Cardinals. But they have Julio Teheran on the bump tonight and this is a pitcher long overdue to start recording positive results. Last year, pitching on a 93-loss team, Teheran finished w/ a 10-20 team start record, but that was in no way indicative of his overall skill set as he posted a 3.21 ERA and 1.053 WHIP. The numbers have dipped a bit this year and his TSR is just 2-4, but I still see better things on the horizon for him. It's telling that the Braves would be favored against the Cards, even if it's ever so slightly, for a second night in a row. Yesterday aside, St. Louis has been nothing but mediocre thus far and they are the worst fielding team in baseball.

Right now, the Redbirds are down not one, but two starting outfielders. Stephen Piscotty is on the DL w/ a right hamstring strain. Meanwhile, Dexter Fowler remains day to day w/ a shoulder. Considering how poor the team has been in the field so far, being w/o regulars is pretty frightening. The absence of both from the lineup obviously makes Teheran's job that much easier as well. Teheran did start the season out strong, allowing just 2 ER in his first three starts (19 IP). But B2B starts here at SunTrust Park have been tough on him, especially the last one was as he was roughed up for six runs by the Mets. But that was a bad spot for him as he was starting opposite the same pitcher for a second straight outing and had won the first matchup. I anticipate him bouncing back here. Teheran has a 3.13 ERA in four career starts vs. St. Louis. The Braves won the only other time this season they were coming off a game where they'd allowed 10+ runs. 

St. Louis counters w/ Mike Leake, who admittedly had himself an excellent April. But I'm not counting on that lasting. This is a starter who was 9-12 w/ a 4.69 ERA last year. SunTrust Park has not been kind to pitchers so far in its young existence and this will obviously be Leake's first time working here. Even after winning by 10 runs yday, the Cards are still being outscored by a full run per game on the road this season. While Leake did outduel Max Scherzer earlier in the year, he's also been fortunate to face Cincinnati twice. I look for the Braves hitters to bounce back tonight as they are still averaging a healthy 7.1 rpg the L7 games despite being shutout Friday. 10* Atlanta

8* Anaheim (10:35 ET): Through four games, the home team has yet to win a single game in this series. The Ducks, after dropping the first two at home, stormed back w/ B2B wins in Edmonton, scoring 10 goals in the process. What are the chances that they lose a third straight time on home ice to the Oilers? Not high. I say that because during the regular season this team suffered a Western Conference-low eight losses in regulation at home and only Washington and Pittsburgh (currently facing each other) experienced fewer home losses overall this season. The Ducks also won both games against Calgary here at The Pond in the opening round. I see them making it three in a row over Edmonton and for the first time taking the series lead.

If Anaheim can continue to score at the rate we saw in the prior two games, then Edmonton is in big time trouble. That's because the Ducks were also 3rd in the league in goals allowed during the regular season and had the 4th best penalty kill. They have now outshot the Oilers in all four games in this series, three times putting the puck on net at least 36 times. The other game saw them score six goals! While goaltender John Gibson did struggle early on in this series, his .932 save percentage for the year at home tells you he should play well tonight. Overall, this Ducks team is 14-2-2 its last 18 games. You have to believe they will take care of business at home, right? 

Given what we saw in the regular season, I remain leery of Conor McDavid's supporting cast continuing to produce for Edmonton. Since suffering that 7-0 drubbing at the hands of San Jose in Rd 1, the Oilers have scored at least three times in five of the last six games, the lone exception ironically being a 2-1 win in this series. But the fact they've been outshot in all four games by Anaheim is concerning as is the recent play of Cam Talbot between the pipes. His save percentage in the series is down to .902. Blowing a two-goal lead in Game 4 and losing in OT is an ominous sign for the underdog here. 8* Anaheim

10* Texas (10:10 ET): This play certainly represents a "change of course" from recent days when I was BACKING the Mariners. Why the change? Well, the M's previous series (against the Angels) saw them SEEKING revenge for a prior three-game sweep. Now, the proverbial shoe is on the other foot. It was them that swept the Rangers back on 4.14-4.16 here at Safeco Field. As I made clear in my analysis for all picks on Seattle in the last series, this is one of my favorite spots to take a team, particularly in a division matchup. Over the long grind that is the MLB season, it's simply too difficult to beat the same opponent, day after day. With Yu Darvish on the bump, tonight will certainly be Texas' best shot at achieving a victory this weekend.

Coming into 2017, the Rangers were earmarked for regression by a lot of people, myself included. Last year's 95-win team was extremely fortunate as they only outscored opponents by EIGHT runs over the course of the season, relying heavily on a 36-11 record in one-run games. That was the best such record in MLB HISTORY! This year has seen them start out a disappointing 12-17 and that's including the win yday afternoon in Houston. Sobering news was handed down this week in the form of a Cole Hamels' oblique injury that will keep him out of action for EIGHT weeks. But the team still has Darvish at the front end of the rotation and he's posted a 2.79 ERA and 1.061 WHIP through six starts so far. He did NOT face Seattle in the previous series. Last time out, he held the Angels to only two runs (one earned) and three hits over 6 IP. He also matched a season-high w/ 10 K's. It was the fourth time this year that Darvish has allowed two runs or less. 

Both of these teams scored double digit runs yesterday. I had the Mariners as they routed the Angels 11-3 to take that series. But having to counter Darvish w/ Yovani Gallardo here makes for a tough matchup. Gallardo has allowed 4 ER in three of his last four starts, never making it past the sixth inning. While he hasn't been too susceptible to the long ball thus far, it is worth noting that Texas has hit 12 HR's in its last five games. Seattle has lost four of Gallardo's five starts and that certainly has a lot to do w/ the pitcher himself as he's posted poor overall numbers (5.08 ERA, 1.553 WHIP). Look for the Rangers to come in and "steal one" tonight. 10* Texas

10* Under Spurs/Rockets (9:35 ET): The first two games of this series have gone Over the total, but as we saw last night w/ Boston-Washington, that doesn't preclude an Under when the venue shifts. Though I was happy to see the Spurs (had 'em!) win big Game 2 (121-96 as six-point favorites), that victory certainly came at a price as PG Tony Parker now appears to be done for the year with a torn quad. That certainly puts a big damper on the Spurs' prospects as they'll need to find out a way to replace his production on the offensive end. Defensively, I don't think Parker's absence will sting nearly as much. This was the #1 team in efficiency during the regular season and as long as they have Kwahi Leonard defending James Harden, they'll be okay. Take the Under for Game 3.

For San Antonio, this is a high total. Their total PPG average for the season is just 203.7. Now for Houston, the number is a little low as their games average 224.4 PPG. But the Rockets only scored 96 in Game 2. That was actually their second fewest number of points scored in a game ALL SEASON and just the SIXTH time they were held below 100. So, we probably should expect some sort of bounce back offensively tonight. That said, Leonard should continue to make "life difficult" for Harden and prevent the Rockets from hitting their peak or even average. Harden scored just 13 pts in Game 2 on 3 of 17 shooting. It was the worst shooting playoff game of his career and he did not make a single shot when Leonard was the primary defender. Parker might be done, but Leonard isn't going anywhere. It certainly doesn't help Harden or the Rockets that he's not feeling well either (congestion & cough). 

The Spurs have actually gone Over the total in six straight games as well as 9 of their last 10. But remember their first round opponent was Memphis and the O/U lines set there were low. This is now - easily - the longest Over streak of the Spurs' season. The previous high was four straight games, achieved twice. While they likely won't shoot as poorly as they did back in Game 1 (36.9% overall), they also aren't likely to shoot as well as they did in Game 2 (54.5%). As long as the top defensive team in the league can maintain somewhere close to its season average, we will be in good shape here. Remember that San Antonio was the best team in the league at defending the three-point line, so they are uniquely suited to slowing down the Rockets' primary weapon. 10* Under Spurs/Rockets

10* Arizona (8:40 ET): There has been a pitching change here (for Colorado), but that has no bearing on the play. Truth be told, I was excited to go against Tyler Anderson in an "immediate revenge" spot for Zack Greinke. Those two squared off last week at Chase Field w/ Anderson and the Rockies coming out ahead 7-6, but only because the D'backs bullpen once again let Greinke and the team down. Note that over his last four starts, Greinke has now faced the same two opponents twice in a row. I took him in a similar spot on 4.24 against San Diego where he was seeking revenge against Jhoulys Chacin and sure enough he came through w/ a dominant effort. While the removal of Anderson as the starter for Colorado changes things up a bit here, truth is that German Marquez represents a clear downrgrade in the pitching department for the home team.

I call Marquez a "clear downgrade" even though last week he tossed six shutout innings against these D'backs. But that performance was a "far cry" from his first start of 2017 (here at Coors Field) when he was hit hard for eight runs in just four innings of work. Interestingly enough, the Rockies actually still LOST the game Marquez started in Arizona, 2-0 in extra innings. Will they score here at home? Probably. But Greinke should mitigate how much and Marquez figures to be a whole lot worse tonight. Greinke has allowed 3 ER or less in four of five starts this year. Last week against the Rockies, he was victimized by the long ball (three solo HR's). That could be taken as a troubling sign going into the thin air of Coors Field, but he also has a 26-3 KW ratio his L3 starts, so I remain confident in his abilities.

Colorado is very fortunate to be in first place of the NL West right now. While 18-11 overall, they are a perfect 9-0 in one-run games! They won another last night, 3-2, over lowly San Diego. Meanwhile, Arizona has a vastly superior run differential (+29) compared to the Rockies (-1). While the offense has yet to really produce on the road this year, the D'backs still rank 2nd in MLB in runs scored, so they are well-suited to take care of business here in Denver. Arizona is the better team here and has a clear starting pitching edge tonight, making them severely mispriced. 10* Arizona

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): It goes w/o saying that the Raptors have to be thrilled to be out of Cleveland. Going back to last year's Eastern Conference Finals, they are 0-5 SU/ATS in the playoffs there, losing by an average of nearly THIRTY points per game! Game 1 of this series was bad (lost 116-105), but Game 2 was even worse (lost 125-103) and Toronto basically trailed the entire time in both games. DeMar DeRozan was downright awful Wednesday night as he was just 2 for 11 from the field and scored only five points. Plus, he's now resorting to (facetiously) offering $100 to anyone who knows how to stop LeBron James! Even worse is that Kyle Lowry now has a sprained ankle. The good news is that DeRozan can't be any worse than he was in Game 2 and I have to believe Lowry is going to try and at least give it a "go" here. I view teams like stocks and tonight clearly marks an opportunity to "buy low" on the Raptors. Take the points.

Let us not forget what happened in LY's Eastern Conference Finals. As they did in this series, the Raptors got blown out in Games 1 and 2 in Cleveland. But then they came back to take the next two here at home. There's some real value here considering Cleveland was only a seven-point home favorite for Game 2. Plus, I anticipate the public continuing to bet this number up, so I'd probably wait as long as possible to get the best available number. Toronto is 30-14 SU at home this year, outscoring visitors by 7.6 points per game. Their scoring average jumps to 110.3 PPG (only 101.7 PPG on the road). Cleveland actually finished w/ a losing road record in the regular season (20-21 SU) and has been outscored away from home over the course of the year. They trailed Indiana by as many as 25 in Game 3 of the 1st round before a miraculous comeback.

The Cavs have been on fire in the first two games, particularly from three point range. They are now averaging over 14 makes per game from behind the arc and shooting 42.3% there for the entire playoffs. That's a clip that probably cannot be sustained. Let's not let the offensive outbursts from the first two games mask the fact that the defending World Champs are questionable at best on the defensive end where they ranked 22nd in efficiency (lowest among all playoff teams!) during the regular season. Toronto, who was just 5 of 17 from three-point range in Game 2, should be the ones "getting it going" from distance tonight. The Raptors, not Cleveland or Boston, were the team that had the best net efficiency rating and point differential in the Eastern Conference this year.  8* Toronto

10* Over Jazz/Warriors (10:35 ET): This total is incredibly low from the Warriors' perspective. Of course, from the Jazz's perspective, not so much as they led the league in points per game allowed during the regular season (96.8) and their total PPG average for the year is now just 197.4. Underrated here is the fact Golden State was #2 in the regular season in defensive efficiency, behind only San Antonio (Utah was #3). So, a somewhat defensive series should be expected. That said, Warriors' games this season average 219.9 total PPG and this is probably the lowest O/U line for any of their games this season. Game 1 did stay Under (as have all Jazz-Warriors matchups this season), but it was also a 58-46 game at halftime. Scoring crawled to a halt in the fourth quarter when the game was largely decided. Not here. Take the Over.

Yes, all four meetings this year between these teams have now stayed Under. In fact, going back to last year, the streak is now at seven in a row. Six of the last seven meetings here in Oakland have stayed Under. But there's a chance tonight's O/U line could close as the lowest to date. Certainly, it's not as if these previous meetings have been staying Under by a wide margin. Game 1 missed the mark by just six points. Four of the previous five times these teams had played, the margin was even slimmer than that. I probably shouldn't have to tell you that the Warriors were again the top offensive team in the league this year. They average an astounding 118.4 PPG at home. 

Neither team was very prolific from three-point range in Game 1 as they combined to go just 16 of 58. Utah actually made more threes (9) than did Golden State (7). The seven made 3-pt field goals is well below what the Warriors average for the year (12.0), so expect an increase in production from them behind the arc tonight. Another area where we should make up scoring from Game 1 is at the free throw line. The teams combined to attempt only 33 FT's. They made 28, so a higher number of attempts should naturally lead to more makes. At no point did the Warriors trail in Game 1 and all five starters wound up scoring in double figures. Meanwhile, Utah didn't score its first point until the 7:48 mark of the first quarter. A similar drought should not be expected here and had they scored just six points during that time, the Over would have cashed. This total is just too low. 10* Over Jazz/Warriors

10* Seattle (10:10 ET): After cashing my 10* Game of the Week on them yday, I'll come right back w/ the Mariners again tonight. Really, one could make the case that the home team should be in a position to sweep their AL West rival here. The M's blew an early lead in the series opener and wound up losing in 11 innings. Last night was almost a bit of deja vu, but thankfully they were able to rally for an 8-7 victory. Some might call that "poetic justice" for an Angels team which leads all of MLB w/ 11 come from behind victories. It would have been 12 had Seattle not scored four times in the bottom of the eighth yday. Again, Seattle was able to take an early edge (4-0), but the Halos struck w/ a six-run sixth. Tonight, I'll call for them to lead from start to finish.

Due to numerous injuries in their starting rotation, Los Angeles is forced to go w/ Alex Meyer again here. The spot starter failed to impress in his first outing, which came 4.21 at Toronto. He lasted just 3 2/3 innings and gave up a pair of runs while walking more batters (4) than he struck out (3). Targeting these spot starters is typically a good idea. Especially w/ Seattle now averaging a healthy 5.4 rpg at home. While they've struggled mightily on the road, the M's are 7-4 here at Safeco Field. The Angels are just 6-10 on the road and have been outscored overall this season (-10 run differential). It's not even like Meyer has been effective at a lower level. Through four starts at Triple A affiliate Salt Lake, his ERA is 6.16.

Seattle will hope that their starter, Ariel Miranda, can turn in an outing reminiscent of his last one. Last Friday in Cleveland, he helped beat the Indians (was +175 on the money line!) by allowing only one run on two hits over 5 1/3 IP. He was even more effective in his previous home start where he tossed seven shutout innings of four-hit ball. Miranda has never lost to the Angels in three career tries and has a solid 3.71 ERA against them. With a 0.978 WHIP his L3 outings, he's clearly the better starting option here and thus I see the Mariners taking the series. 10* Seattle

8* Washington (8:05 ET): There's two ways to look at the Wizards' performance in Boston in Games 1 and 2. The pessimist would say that they blew two golden opportunties to "steal" a game on the road and take away the Celtics' home court advantage in the series. The pessimist certainly has a point. When you score a combined 80 pts in the first quarter and still end up 0-2 ATS, well, that's pretty inexcusable. But the optimist would point to the fact that the Wiz could easily be up 2-0 in the series, having held double digit leads in both games. We also know they are a significantly better team at home (33-11 SU here). Sure, the line might "turn some off" (Washington now favored by more here than Boston was in either Games 1 or 2!), but not I. I'll lay the points w/ the Wizards in a "must-win" game. 

In the regular season, Boston was 2-15 ATS when on a win streak of at least three games. But they now come into tonight on a six-game SU and ATS win streak. An emotional Isaiah Thomas, still dealing w/ the tragic death of his sister, has been borderline unstoppable so far. Especially in Game 2 where he went for 53 points. But nor he or his team can keep up the production we saw in the first two games of this series. In averaging 126 points per game, the Celtics have shot 51.1% against the Wizards. But history now says it is Washington's turn to break out offensively. Their three-point shooting percentage in particular goes way up when at home (to 39.8%). They were only 10 of 34 in Game 2 w/ Bradley Beal being the biggest offender at 1 of 9. 

Of course, it's not as if Washington has had much problem scoring against the Celtics. They've gotten off to ridiculous starts both games (again, 80 pts in the 1Q!) and averaged 115 PPG. As the underdog, you would have figured they would have covered at least once, if not taken a game outright. Game 2, which ended up going into overtime, saw Boston take its first lead halfway through the fourth quarter! The Wizards led by as many as 13 late in the third quarter. That was after also holding a DD lead in Game 1. Remember that the Celtics also caught a massive break in Rd 1 in that Bulls' starting PG Rajon Rondo got hurt, which totally changed the complexion of that series. This is a weak top seed that lost two home games to an 8-seed and has trailed by double digits in two others. Washington won both regular season meetings at home, by 15 and 25 points. 8* Washington

10* NY Rangers (7:35 ET): After blowing Game 2 in spectacular fashion (allowed two goals in final five minutes of regulation and lost in double OT), the Rangers completely dominated the Senators in Game 3, winning 4-1 here at Madison Square Garden. Given the ease with which they won Tuesday, not to mention my overall read on Ottawa, I've got no choice but to come right back w/ the Blueshirts again tonight in Game 4. Of course, in the interest of full disclosure, I've actually now played AGAINST the Sens in EVERY one of their games this postseason. This is a team that was outscored over the course of the regular season and has a statistical profile that's very unimpressive to say the least. I consider it to be a "minor miracle" that they've made it this far.

One thing (of many!) that shocked me about the Senators' round one victory over the Bruins was the fact they had the edge in shots on goal. During the regular season, Boston was #1 in the league in shot per game differential. But the way this series is going, the Sens are likely NOT to have the edge in shots, thus decreasing their probability of victory. They were outshot badly in Game 2 (48-34) and then 30-27 in Game 3. After Saturday's "gagjob," the Rangers wasted little time in jumping all over the Sens Tuesday, scoring twice in the first period and then adding two more in the second. That was a lead they simply weren't going to blow and it was certainly nice to see goaltender Henrik Lundqvist continue to re-discover "old form" w/ a 26-save effort. Lundqvist now has a .935 save percentage in the playoffs and in my mind, is clearly the better goaltender in this series. No netminder has more than his 289 save this postseason. 

The Rangers got a goal from all four lines Tuesday, so it was a true "team effort." Meanwhile, Ottawa continues to rely on a few individuals to carry them and that's not a sustainable blueprint for success in my estimation. Jean-Gabriel Pageau now has five goals in the last two games. Consider he scored only 12 times in the entire regular season and, yes, he played in every game! Erik Karlsson had the incredible Round 1 against Boston, but has just two points in this series and only three in the team's three losses this postseason. Remember, all six of Ottawa's wins in the playoffs have been by one goal, five of them coming in overtime. The Rangers finished the regular season w/ a far better goal differential and more points. So despite not having home ice advantage in the series, one could certainly argue they are the better team here. 10* NY Rangers

8* Under White Sox/Royals (2:15 ET): Every game in this series thus far has stayed Under the total. That shouldn't come as a surprise given we're dealing w/ the two of the lowest scoring offenses in all of baseball, including the one (KC) that is - by far - the lowest. It was the Royals that scored six times in a win yesterday, but considering they are still averaging less than 3.0 rpg, regression on that side of the ledger is to be expected this afternoon. Fortunately, they will have Ian Kennedy on the bump and he gives the team an excellent shot at a repeat of what Nate Karns did to the White Sox last night. That would be hold them scorless over six innings. Kennedy might be winless, but he has a 2.30 ERA and 0.989 WHIP, making this a pretty easy Under call in my book.

It is downright criminal that Kennedy still does not have a win after five starts (1-4 TSR). He's yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start and has allowed two or fewer in each of the last four. His last time out, he allowed just 2 ER in 5 2/3 IP, but sadly the bullpen blew things by allowing four runs in the eighth. Sadly, the four runs scored by the Royals in that game were the most we've seen from them in any Kennedy start this season! They'd only scored three TOTAL in his first four outings. But that said, I still expect Kennedy to hold up his "end of the bargain" today. As mentioned earlier, the White Sox didn't do much of anything at the plate last night. Their lone run scored came in the ninth inning after being held to just one hit through the first eight frames. It was their second time being held to just one run by Royals pitching in this series. 

Meanwhile, the Royals offense is way behind the rest of the pack, not only in runs scored (30th), but in all other key offensive categories. In addition to having scored 21 fewer runs than every other team, they are also dead last in team batting average, on base percentage and slugging! They were shutout in their lone loss in this series (6-0 Tuesday), so there's certainly some hope here for White Sox starter Derek Holland, who has allowed 2 ER in four of his five starts anyway. Before breaking through in the sixth inning last night, the Royals hadn't scored in 15 innings. Not surprisingly, KC is one of the top Under teams in baseball this season and the White Sox aren't far behind (2nd and 4th, respectively). The Royals are 1-8 in day games for a reason and that's they're are batting a collective .199 w/ just 2.1 rpg scored. Lefties are just 1 for 11 off Holland so far this season while righties aren't much better at .216 overall. Of course, if Kennedy can do his job, there's a chance we don't have to play the bottom of the ninth here, which is always huge w/ an Under bet. 8* Under White Sox/Royals

8* Pittsburgh (12:35 ET): The Pirates lost again to the Reds yday, 7-2. The loss drops them to 1-5 head to head w/ the Reds this season and a confounding 11-14 against them since the start of last season. They are now actually below Cincy in the NL Central standings. Given how the Reds have performed overall the L2 seasons, these results should leave the Bucs feeling quite embarrassed. But I was on Pittsburgh in that one win this year over the Reds (Tuesday) and I'll back them again this afternoon as they send Ivan Nova to the bump. Nova has a 1.50 ERA and 0.75 WHIP through five starts, so he should be able to "put to bed" this embarrassing string of results against Cincinnati, a team that should not be dominating ANYONE quite frankly.

Nova, somehow, only has a 3-2 TSR despite those impressive numbers listed above. One of the losses (of course!) was to the Reds, back on April 12th. That was his worst showing of the season as he allowed four runs (three earned) in six innings. But Nova left nothing to chance his last time out, tossing a CG shutout w/ no walks (only three hits) at Miami. Strikeout numbers are up for him (14 L2 starts) and his KW ratio for the year is now 22-1! He was actually named N.L. Pitcher of the Month for his efforts, which included another complete game at St. Louis. So given the last two times Nova has pitched away from home, he's gone the distance, I'm pretty confident he'll get the job done here.

Meanwhile, my view of Reds' starter Tim Adelman is a lot less rosy. He was roughed up for six runs in his last start, which ended up being a 7-5 loss to the Cardinals. It was just his 2nd start of 2017 and neither time have the Reds one. Already, Adelman has allowed four home runs. The Pirates offense has shown an ability to put runs on the board, twice scoring 12 in the L6 games. One of those was of course Tuesday here in Cincy. I've got to go back to the Reds' awful outlook at the start of the season here and I just can't see them beating the Pirates again, not w/ Nova on the hill. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Under Ducks/Oilers (10:05 ET): As you probably know, I had the Over in Game 3 and that was a "no doubter" as Anaheim scored three times in the first 12 minutes en route to a 6-3 win. But for Game 4, the oddsmakers have been kind enough to boost the O/U line by one-half goal and I think that makes all the difference in the world. Sure, the O/U line was essentially irrelevant for the last game, but that level of scoring isn't likely to be repeated again. The Ducks actually ranked only 18th in the league in goals per game during the regular season (2.7) while the Oilers aren't likely to keep producing if Conor McDavid stays stuck on two even strength points this postseason (1 goal, 1 assist). I look for Game 4 to be a low-scoring, tight affair. Take the Under. 

Going into Game 3, McDavid had just one point in the series and it was an assist on a power play. He did find the back of the net against John Gibson on Sunday, but overall, the Oilers' offensive attack was rather doormant. I've been surprised as to how well McDavid's supporting cast has performed this postseason as the team's Corsi For percentage was onlly 45.6 w/ him off the ice in the regular season. The last two games have seen Edmonton muster only 50 shots on goal, making Gibson's job a whole lot easier. Remember that the Ducks ranked third in the league in goals allowed during the regular season, not to mention fourth in penalty killing. After scoring five goals in Game 1, the Oilers have been held to that same number the L2 games combined. 

Meanwhile, Anaheim is 14-7 Under this season following a game in which it tallied four or more goals. After a tremendous Game 2 performance (stopped 39 of 40 shots), Edmonton goalie Cam Talbot did not have his "finest hour" in Game 3. But, remember, he was torched in a 7-0 loss to San Jose in the previous round, then came back by allowing just four goals the next two games. He also had a pair of shutouts to his credit in that series. To further illustrate, the importance of the extra one-half goal we're getting to work w/ here, note that the Oilers are 16-8 Under this season in home games in which the O/U line is 5.5. The extra day of rest between games is also potentially huge b/c they are 8-2 Under this season when playing w/ exactly two days rest. 10* Under Ducks/Oilers

10* Seattle (10:10 ET): With an early 2-0 lead and James Paxton on the bump, one would have though the Mariners would be a "shoo-in" last night. I certainly did. But it was not to be as the team wound up dropping its third straight, this one in extra innings, 6-4 to the Angels. Though he walked five batters, Paxton allowed only two runs over his 5 1/3 IP, just one of them earned. But the M's actually needed to score in the home half of the ninth just to force extra innings. They lost when Mike Trout was able to score from first base on a double from Albert Pujols in the top of the 11th. The loss dropped them to 0-4 head to head vs. the Angels this season. Can't see that continuing, not w/ the fact that the Halos (despite a winning record) have actually been outscored this season. 

Ricky Nolasco will pitch this evening for Los Angeles and he'll be leaned on heavily. That's because a total of six relievers were used yday due to Matt Shoemaker being ineffective. In addition to not being able to rely much on the bullpen, Nolasco should also be concerned w/ an offense which averages only 3.0 rpg away from home while batting a collective .219. Considering Nolasco has yet to last longer than six innings in any of his five starts this season, I see a problem for the Angels. In six career starts vs. Seattle, Nolasco has just one win and a 4.33 ERA. Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz have combined to homer five times off him in just 33 total AB's. I'd also like to point out that the Angels are very fortunate to already have 11 come from behind wins this season, last night included. 

The Mariners will counter w/ Hisashi Iwakuma. In the past, Iwakuma had been a reliable #2 man in the rotation, behind Felix Hernandez. But King Felix is on the DL and Iwakuma hasn't been as effective as he once was. Still, facing an Angels lineup that often struggles to score on the road shouldn't be too tall of a task. In 20 career starts vs. LA, he's posted a 2.76 ERA and he's 6-2 against them here at Safeco Field. Also, Iwakuma is off his best start of the year, having allowed just one unearned run across 5 2/3 IP last week in Detroit. Aside from one bad showing vs. Texas, he's allowed 3 ER or less every other time out. While this may be Seattle's third three-game losing streak of 2017 already, they've yet to lose four in a row and I'll call for them to keep that streak alive tonight. 10* Seattle

8* San Antonio (9:35 ET): The Cavs and Warriors are the only teams yet to lose a game this postseason, but don't sleep on the Rockets, who have only dropped one and just ran the Spurs out of the gym Monday night. In a real shocker, Houston came into San Antonio and took Game 1 w/ incredible ease, rolling up 126 points on what was the #1 rated team in defensive efficiency during the regular season. The Rockets are now 12-4 ATS as underdogs this season, a role which they find themselves in yet again for Game 2. However, not to expect a bounce back from the Spurs would be foolish. When off a SU loss this year, the team has outscored its opponents by an impressive margin of 11.6 points per game. With the series set to move to Houston for the next two games, this is basically a "must win" for San Antonio and I see them getting the job done.

As mentioned already, the Spurs were #1 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They allow only 97.5 PPG at home. So the 126 they allowed to Houston was definitely a surprise to most. Given that no team was better at defending the three-point line this year, one would think the Spurs were uniquely suited to stop the Rockets, a team that very much "lives and dies" behind the arc. But instead, Game 1 saw Houston go 22 of 50 from three-point range, a rather stunning performance. I'm willing to bet on that NOT happening again. Furthermore, we should see improvement from San Antonio's offense as well, which was held under 100 pts (9 of 29 from 3-pt range) by a subpar defensive team. 

Perhaps the biggest surprise of all from Game 1 was the incredible amount of support James Harden received from his supporting cast. The four other starters combined for 64 points on 21 of 43 shooting, including 11 of 25 from three-point range. Trevor Ariza scored 23 and Clint Capela added 20. I just can't see a repeat of that taking place here. Meanwhile, the Spurs' LaMarcus Aldridge was a disaster w/ a -36 plus-minus, the worst ever turned in by a Greg Popovich coached player in the postseason. He'll be better tonight. It's way too early to write off the Spurs. They shot just 36.9% from the floor in Game 1, a percentage which should easily be topped here tonight. Expect much better play - on both ends of the court - for Game 2. 8* San Antonio

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Cavs and Warriors are the only teams yet to lose this postseason, so let the inevitable discussion about a potential NBA Finals "rubber match" commence. Never before in league history have the same two teams met three consecutive years in the Finals, by the way. While Cleveland swept Indiana in the 1st round, it was hardly an impressive four-game stretch as they won by an average of only four points per game while giving up an average of 108.7 points per game. Defense was a real issue for the defending World Champs down the stretch and they finished 22nd in the league in efficiency, which actually ranks LAST among all playoff teams. However, they were seemingly able to "turn it on" in Game 1 of this series, beating Toronto 116-105 as 6.5-pt chalk. They never trailed. 

The Raptors did take the Cavaliers to six games in LY's Eastern Conference Finals, but their four losses were by an average of 28.5 PPG and they dropped all three games here in Cleveland. So what must the underdog do to reverse the course of history here? Well, shooting better would be a good start. They finished Game 1 at just 43.8% from the field, which won't get it done against the Cavs. Considering Indiana, an inferior offensive team, was able to shoot 46.6% in Rd 1, I expect better from Toronto here. Digging themselves an early hole doomed them Monday. It should be pointed out that the Cavs' penchant for blowing large leads again reared its ugly head though as the Raptors were able to cut the deficit to seven in the third quarter. It should be noted Toronto is 7-3 STRAIGHT UP following a double digit loss this year. 

Until further notice, I'll maintain that Cleveland's defense (or lack there of) remains a problem. Remember that they actually trailed by 25 in Game 3 of the opening round and also were fortunate that the Pacers missed a wide-open shot that would have won Game 1. With three or more days rest, the Cavs are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS this year. But in all other games, they're just 34-45-4 ATS. The Raptors were 14-8 ATS as a road dog this year prior to the Game 1 loss. Really, I can't see them playing any worse than they did Monday and note they were essentially dead even w/ the Cavs over the final three quarters. 8* Toronto

8* San Diego (10:10 ET): I am by no means ready to buy into Colorado, despite a 16-10 start which has them currently atop the National League West. That overall record is a byproduct of a being a very fortunate 8-0 in one run games so far. In all other contests, they've been outscored by 14 runs. Their last game, a 2-0 loss at Arizona Sunday, brings back a familiar criticism of this team and that's they rarely produce offensively on the road. The bottom line is the so-called "Coors Field effect" has long skewed perception of this franchise's offensive capabilities. For the record, the club is 5-9 the L3 seasons after suffering a shutout loss. San Diego won't get my endorsement too many times this season, but here's an instance where they do. 

Petco Park is infamously at the opposite end of the spectrum from Coors Field in terms of its friendliness towards hitters. Tonight's starter for the home team took full advantage of that in his first start of the year here. Back on April 21st, Trevor Cahill threw seven solid innings for the Padres, allowing just one run on three hits in a 5-3 win over Miami. He wasn't nearly as effective his last time out, but that was in Arizona, a park similar to Coors in its penchant for producing high-scoring games. While Cahill's career marks against Colorado aren't exactly awe-inspiring, getting to face them here at home is a bonus. The Rockies, who are hitting just .224 on the road w/ 3.5 rpg scored, managed only 11 runs total (four game series) in their last visit to San Diego. Remember, earlier this year, the Padres did take two of three from the first place Rockies and that was in Denver! 

Tyler Chatwood gave up four runs in one of those losses to San Diego and he'll be the starter again tonight for Colorado. He'd also previously allowed seven runs to the usually weak-hitting Padres in his final start against them of 2016. Now both of those came at Coors where Chatwood has had to pitch his L2 starts (allowed total of nine runs). But even w/ him owning a CG shutout (of the Giants) on the road this season, I don't have the righty faring all that well tonight. Something else to consider is that this is the Padres' first home game following a seven-game trip. Only the Braves (8) have gotten to play fewer home games than the Padres' nine and they have a winning record (5-4) so far here at Petco Park. 8* San Diego

10* Seattle (10:10 ET): The Mariners have largely been a disappointment this year as they're only 11-15 and were just handed "their lunch" by Cleveland Sunday in 12-4 loss. But, back at home w/ James Paxton on the bump, I like 'em. Seattle has been a much better team this year within the confines of Safeco Field, going 6-3 including a perfect 5-0 when in the -125 to -175 price range. Paxton is responsible for two of those wins as he has yet to allow a single run here in 15 IP. In fact, he's allowed just six hits. Last time out marked the fourth time in five starts that Paxton didn't allow a single run as he blanked the Tigers for seven innings, giving up just four hits. With a 39-6 KW ratio this year, he looks like the real deal and I look for him to dominate the Angels Tuesday. 

The Angels have won six of seven overall. They just took two of three over the weekend in Texas and what's most impressive about the current win streak is that it's come in spite of the offense not scoring many runs. Three of the wins came by identical 2-1 scores and overall the team has been held to three runs or fewer in five of its past eight contests. So that doesn't bode well for facing Paxton. Nor does Michael Shoemaker's last start against the Mariners. In an earlier series played between these teams this year, Shoemaker surrendered seven runs in just 4 2/3 innings of work. Now the Angels still won, 10-9, but that was due to a stunning seven-run rally in the home half of the ninth. It's a result I'm sure the Mariners remember coming into this three-game set. 

Despite being a game over .500, the Halos have actually been outscored by 11 runs this year. They did sweep the Mariners in Anaheim last month, but two of the wins were by one run. As I often say, it is difficult to continue beating the same opponent, particularly if it's a division rival. Led by Paxton, who the Angels did not face in the previous series, the Mariners have the edge tonight. Opponents are hitting just .179 against Paxton so far this season and the Angels best player (Mike Trout) is just 2 for 20 lifetime against him w/ 10 K's. Shoemaker was lucky to avoid the loss his last time facing the M's and I have to wonder about his psyche here, pitching in the place where he suffered a skull fracture last September. Seattle is a perfect 3-0 this season after allowing 10+ runs in the previous game. 10* Seattle

10* Under Wizards/Celtics (8:05 ET): Washington failed to protect a 20-3 lead in Game 1, so I'm lukewarm on their prospects of winning a game here in Boston. But one thing I think we absolutely can expect for tonight's Game 2 is worse shooting - from both sides. The Wizards and Celtics combined to go better than 50% from the field w/ Boston making a ridiculous 19 three-pointers in what shocking turned out to be an easy, come from behind effort. The Wiz weren't "half bad" from behind the arc either, going 10 of 23. I just don't think we'll see a repeat of that and with the O/U line now higher than both team's total points per game averages for the year, I feel an Under play is appropriate here. 

Save for the 1Q on Sunday (allowed 38 pts), the Celtics have turned the defense up here in the postseason. In their four wins over the Bulls, they allowed an average of just 90.5 PPG. After the bad start to Game 1 of this series, they buckled down and gave up just 42 total pts in the second and third quarters combined. So they should be fine on that end of the floor. But, it's on offense where I expect them to regress from Game 1. Don't expect another 24 points out of Jae Crowder as that was his playoff career high. Al Horford turned a near triple-double (21-10-9) and I think it's reasonable to assume his production will decrease as well. Isaiah Thomas poured in an emotional 33 pts in the wake of his sister's funeral and also losing a tooth. As good as he's been, I don't see Thomas scoring as many tonight. Again, it's the three-point department where I really expect the Celtics offense to "fall off" from Game 1. They do average 13 makes per game, but that's still an additional 18 pts they got in that department Sunday.

Washington just doesn't have much to offer beyond it's starting backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal. Given Beal had a good game Sunday (team-high 27 pts), I would expect the inconsistent shooting guard to possibly have an "off-night" here. Where will the lost production come from then? Well, Markieff Morris is questionable w/ an ankle injury, so it probably won't be him picking up the slack, if he even plays at all. Being so thin in the frontcourt, Washington probably can't take advantage of Boston's one real deficiency, rebounding. So expect fewer second chance opportunities for them. 10* Under Wizards/Celtics

10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): I just can't believe the trouble the Bucs are having w/ the Reds, not only this season, but dating back to 2016 as well. Last night's 4-3 loss (in extra innings) drops them to 0-4 head to head against their division rivals so far this year and 10-13 (-8.7 units) since the start of last year. Given the Reds' overall level of ineptitude during this time, this is pretty shocking. As is the Pirates ace Gerrit Cole still being winless all-time (nine starts) against Cincy after last night. Tonight, they turn to Tyler Glasnow, who likewise has not fared well in this NL Central rivalry. But I'll continue to look to "buck the trend" here as Pittsburgh is certainly "due" to beat what is still a "lesser opponent." That lesser opponent had not won B2B games in three weeks prior to last night.

In the last series between these teams, Glasnow did not fare well as he allowed five runs in just 1 2/3 innings. But he hasn't lost since as the team is 3-0 his L3 starts. Admittedly, that record is in spite of some shoddy numbers from Glasnow himself, but he and the team will gladly take the results, especially considering that two of the outings came against the Cubs! The other was against the Yankees, so that's +4.6 units if you happened to bet Glasnow all three times. Apparently, oddsmakers have not learned their lesson here, installing Glasnow as a slight dog on the ML. Despite the way this rivalry has leaned the L2 seasons, if Glasnow can come out ahead of the likes of the Cubs & Yankees, he should be able to beat the lowly Reds as well. Again, I point to the preseason projections which had Cincy as the second worst team in all of baseball, ahead of only San Diego. 

Just 58-85 off a win since the start of last season, the Reds hand the baseball to veteran Scott Feldman tonight. It's been a surprisingly decent start to the year for Feldman, who was the club's Opening Day starter mind you (yikes!), but I'm certainly not confident that will last. Nor would I be too confident with this Reds offense. Prior to the GW hit, all their production last night came on one swing of the bat, a 3-run HR by Adam Duval. They also benefited mightily from two Pirates errors, one of them leading to the GW run being scored in the 10th. Cincy is only batting a collective .228 at Great American Ballpark so far. I like the Pirates at this price. 10* Pittsburgh

8* NY Rangers (7:05 ET): Ottawa has won six times this postseason and all six wins have come by exactly one goal, five of those coming in overtime! Saturday's 6-5, double OT, win over the Rangers was likely the most preposterous yet. Trailing 5-3 with less than five minutes to go in regulation, the Senators improbably beat Henrik Lundqvist twice to force extra time. Both goals and then the game-winner all came from the stick of Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who had a stunning four goals in all! Making matters more frustrating (clearly, I had the Rangers) is the fact the Sens gave up 48 shots on goal. Scoring five times should have been more than enough for the Blueshirts, but it wasn't and now they're down 0-2. But back at MSG, I still like them to fight their way back into the series.

Now the Rangers do have an odd history of struggling on home ice in the postseason. Furthermore, Ottawa has won 28 of its last 41 visits to the "World's Most Famous Arena." That said, the Rangers' did get the proverbial "monkey off their back" w/ a pair of wins over Montreal here in Round 1. Prior to Game 2, Lundqvist had seemingly rediscovered his past self. The longtime netminder hadn't allowed more than three times in any playoff game. Getting beaten six times in one game, four by one player, was certainy shocking. A bounce back should be expected tonight as Lundqvist has posted a save percentage below .850 in B2B playoffs games just twice in his entire career.

Remember that the Rangers were fourth in goals scored during the regular season. Ottawa ranked just 22nd. So, the home team should have the offensive edge here as well. There really isn't anything the Senators do particularly well; in fact, they are the ONLY playoff team to be outscored during the regular season. I'm still waiting for the other shoe (skate) to drop w/ goaltender Craig Anderson. I think him giving up five goals in Game 2 was a sign of things to come. The key for the Rangers is breaking the Senators' trapping defense and they showed an ability to do just that on Saturday. Bottom line is I'm just not a believer in this Ottawa team. 8* NY Rangers

8* Kansas City (8:15 ET): I'm gonna try w/ the Royals again even though they've now lost nine in a row and are 0-12 their last 12 games vs. the AL Central going back to last season. It's certainly looking like a rapid "fall from grace" for a club that's still only two years removed from winning the World Series. Their 7-16 record is baseball's worst as is their -37 run differential. They just failed to avenge another prior sweep here at home over the weekend, losing two to the Twins (rainout Saturday). Here, they welcome in a White Sox team that is surprisingly above .500 (cleaned house in offseason and were thought to be undertaking a massive rebuild). That's thanks to taking all three games from KC last week at U.S. Cellular Field. I anticipate a far different result here. 

It's not like the Royals were dominated by the Twins over the weekend. They, in fact, jumped out to leads in both games. The bullpen is clearly not what it once was, but maybe that's not a factor tonight w/ Jason Vargas getting the baseball. Vargas has been the Royals' one savior so far this season w/ a 3-1 team start record (they are 4-15 in all other games!). That one loss did come to Chicago last week as he gave up four runs in five innings of what ended up being an ugly 12-1 loss.  But prior to that poor effort, Vargas had started the season w/ three consecutive quality efforts and had allowed just one run in 20 2/3 IP overall! He has a 28-2 KW ratio so far and the home run he allowed to the White Sox Matt Davidson was the first he'd given up all year. White Sox hitters have not hit lefties well this season, turning in a .197 batting average while scoring only 2.9 runs per game.

Now offense has certainly been an issue for KC so far. They are dead last (by a lot) in terms of runs scored in all of MLB and with the White Sox having allowed the fewest # of runs in baseball, this might seem like a bad matchup. But that's where Chicago starter Dylan Covey comes in. Through three starts, Covey has a 6.91 ERA and 1.814 WHIP. Yet somehow, the team has still managed to win twice! One of those was his last time out, against these Royals, where he lasted only four innings after giving up a pair of runs. So far, Covey has more walks than strikeouts (terrible sign!) and he allowed three home runs in a prior start against the Yankees. While the Royals have been terrible on the road thus far, they're at least 5-5 at Kauffman Stadium. They're due to start turning things around, at least a little bit. 8* Kansas City

10* Under Capitals/Penguins (7:35 ET): For the second year in a row, President's Trophy winner Washington finds itself in some real trouble against Pittsburgh. The Pens just took both games in D.C. and now enjoy a commanding 2-0 series lead as the series shifts to the Igloo for the next two games. In conducting an "autopsy" on what's gone wrong for the Capitals, one would probably point the finger at goaltender Braden Holtby. Third in the league in save percentage and second in goals against average during the regular season, Holtby was dreadful in Game 2 as he was chased after allowing three goals on 14 shots. But let us not forget that the Caps were #1 in the league in goals allowed during the regular season for a reason. That reason was Holtby. I'm not convinced Washington can win here in Pittsburgh, but I do anticipate a far lower scoring game than what we saw Saturday. Take the Under.

In Game 2, Pittsburgh actually scored six times on just 24 shots. That's a ridiculous percentage, even for an offense as prolific as this one. Consider that for the year, the Pens' shooting percentage is 10.5%, which is already a pretty ridiculous number (led the league). Not that it mattered, but they were badly outshot in Game 2 (36-24). Giving up a high number of shots has been the lone "critique" of this team this season, but right now that doesn't seem to matter either. Not with goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury turning in a .936 save percentage in these playoffs. I was worried about Fleury heading into Game 2 because his save percentage had been so much worse on the road. But, at home, any worries are simply not there.

These teams have now met six times this year w/ no fewer than five goals being scored in every game. There have been three times where the winning side scored at least six goals themselves. But I don't anticipate that taking place tonight w/ the stakes being so high for Washington. Their other concern is an offense which has scored only three times at even strength in regulation the L4 games. Remember that five of the six games vs. Toronto went into overtime. But Holtby should be better tonight and that's the reason I'm playing this one Under. 10* Under Capitals/Penguins

10* Pittsburgh (7:10 ET): The Pirates had a three-game win streak snapped yday (lost 10-3 at Miami) and now turn to a division rival that they've had some trouble with going back to 2016. That includes suffering a three-game sweep (at home!) earlier this year. While that scenario may not sound too promising on the surface, the opponent here is Cincinnati and I refuse to believe that the Bucs can't take care of business against a club that is projected to be among the very worst in MLB this season. Especially w/ ace Gerrit Cole on the bump for Monday's series opener. As I've often said, the revenge angle (for a prior series sweep) can be a strong angle in MLB betting, particularly when you're talking about division opponents. Great price on the road team tonight.

In addition to the revenge angle, Cole is a big reason I'm making this play. He's coming off four straight quality starts, but unfortunately has been a hard luck loser each of his L2 times out. Last Tuesday vs. Chicago, he allowed only an unearned run over 7 IP (just two hits!), but sadly, that was the difference in the game as the Pirates "forgot to score" themselves (lost 1-0). In his start prior to that one, Cole allowed only two runs, but lost 2-1 to St. Louis. Overall, he now sports a 1.89 ERA and 0.895 WHIP his L3 outings. Now the big worry here is that Cole is 0-6 in eight all-time starts vs. Cincinnati. To me, that makes little sense. Cole is a great pitcher and the Reds are a bad team. This confounding record is due to reverse itself, in my opinion. 

The lack of offense Cole has received recently should be rectified here thanks to a woeful Reds pitching staff. Up first is Amir Garrett, who was absolutely rocked his last time out as he gave up 10 runs in just 3 1/3 innings. He struck out only one batter and allowed three home runs. He had been much sharper in his first three outings, one of them against these Pirates, but I'm not buying a repeat of April 12th at PNC Park where he allowed only two runs and five hits across 6 2/3 IP. Cincy did win Sunday, 5-4 over St. Louis, but all that did was snap a four-game losing skid. Overall, the club has dropped 8 of its last 10. As I said earlier, outside of San Diego, this was projected to be the worst team in MLB this season. The Pirates finally get that elusive win over the Reds here and probably go on to dominate this series. 10* Pittsburgh

10* Toronto (7:05 ET): Believe it or not, but of these two teams, it was the Raptors that finished the regular season w/ the better point differential and net efficiency rating. Yes, this is "the playoffs," but Cleveland was hardly impressive in Round 1, even in sweeping the far less talented Pacers. They won the four games by an average of only four points per game w/ largest MOV in any game being just six. They were fortunate in that Indiana missed potential GW shots in Games 1 and 4, plus blew a 25-point halftime lead in Game 3. Unlike Indiana (Paul George), Toronto has more than just one reliable option and the Cavs defense remains worrisome. The road team won three of the four regular season matchups and I'll gladly take the points here. 

Among playoff teams, Cleveland posted the worst defensive efficiency rating in the regular season. They rank 22nd overall in that department, a far cry from the 10th place ranking they had in LY's Title run. Against Indiana, the defending World Champs conceded an average of 108.7 points per game on 46.6% shooting. They gave up no fewer than 102 pts every game and could never seemingly put the Pacers away in any game. That's worrisome as they prepare to face a far better offensive opponent. I'm also a tad bit concerned over the heavy usage rate of LeBron James. Right now, he's averaging a playoff-high 43.8 minutes per game. Three of the four regular season matchups w/ the Raptors were decided by four points or less, the other was a Raptors win where the Cavs rested starters (reg season finale). 

Toronto wound up needing six games to eliminate a pesky Milwaukee team in Round 1, but they won that series despite averaging only 93.8 points per game. That means, unlike Cleveland, they played some defense. In fact, they were #2 in defensive efficiency in Round 1, trailing only Golden State. Meanwhile, the Cavs were actually WORSE defensively in the series vs. Indiana than they were in the regular season. If it's not become patently obvious to you yet, let me be clear that I expect the Raptors to break out offensively in this game and this series. Will it be enough to win? Not sure, but they are a better team now compared to the one that took the Cavs to six games in LY's Eastern Conference Finals. 10* Toronto

10* Boston (8:05 ET): This possible World Series preview has seen a split after two games w/ the Cubs winning 7-4 yesterday. For tonight's rubber match, it's a battle of southpaws w/ Kyle Hendricks taking on Eduardo Rodriguez. While the Cubs won yday and are 5-1 vs. LH starters this year, I favor the Red Sox here even w/ their scuffling offense. Interleague Play has typically gone the way of the Junior Circuit and in this case, Boston is a lofty 31-14 vs. the NL the L3 seasons. This looks like a GREAT value on them at Fenway as they are also 7-3 off a loss so far. 

Cubs starter Hendricks is off a gem as he tossed six scoreless innings in Pittsburgh last week. The team needed every bit of that as they only wound up prevailing 1-0. Hendricks hasn't proven to be that durable yet, however, never going longer than six full innings. He's only working on four days' rest here. Pittsburgh was his first quality start of the season. He's not fared too well in the past in IL play, posting a 3.94 ERA in nine tries. Also, the Cubs' bullpen has been used a lot in this series Jake Arrieta was ineffective Friday and John Lackey gave up four more runs Saturday. Facing a 4-3 deficit going into the seventh yday, the Cubs were able to rally thanks in part to the long ball, but I'm not sure they will be able to count on such good fortune again tonight (Red Sox also made four errors in yday's game!) 

Rodriguez is also coming off a strong start, one where he allowed only one hit over six scoreless innings! That was at Baltimore and likewise was his 1st quality outing of 2017. There were five walks and while control is a concern w/ him, the Cubs haven't exactly been drawing a ton of walks in this series. A big storyline in Beantown right now is that the Red Sox are 27th in MLB in runs scored after ranking 1st by a wide margin in 2016. Stop with this Big Papi nonsense. It's only a matter of time before the runs start coming as they actually rank second in team batting average (.273) and fifth in OBP (.334) despite missing several key contributors at the start of the season. I like the home team to take this series. 10* Boston

10* Over Ducks/Oilers (7:05 ET): Anaheim is most definitely in real trouble here as they are in an 0-2 series hole after dropping both home games. Now the scene shift to Edmonton, which could mean real trouble considering the Ducks had a losing road record in the regular season. But they did win twice in Alberta (Calgary) in Round 1. Of course, that was after winning both home games. It's not the side I like here, but rather the total. The Oilers' offense now seems to be more than just Connor McDavid and that's really bad news for the Ducks. McDavid doesn't have any of the team's seven goals in the series and in fact has just one point. The major critique of Edmonton in the regular season was their poor offensive number w/ McDavid off the ice. That said, they were still 8th in goals per game, thus I'm on the Over for Game 3. 

Anaheim did put 40 shots on goal in Game 2, but Oilers goalie Cam Talbot turned all but one away. I'm not convinced we'll be seeing a repeat of that performance again in this series, let alone tonight. The Ducks have been pretty consistent all season long, scoring on 9.2% of all shot attempts. Talbot has been hot the L4 games (.940 save percentage), but remember that this is the same goalie that was given the hook in a 7-0 loss to San Jose in Round 1. Game 2 was the lowest scoring of the now seven head to head meetings between these two this season. With 76 shots on goal already in the series, the Ducks are due to breakthrough against Talbot.

As for John Gibson, the Anaheim netminder is struggling. He allowed a bad goal in Game 2 to Andrej Sekera, one that he has to stop. Gibson's save percentage is now below .900 the L4 games. Another issue for the Ducks has been their penalty kill, which has the worst percentage of any team in the playoffs. Already, Edmonton has converted three times in the series when on the man advantage. Maybe that shouldn't come as a surprise considering their power play ranked 5th in the league during the regular season. If McDavid gets going, then the Ducks will be in real trouble. But for Game 3, I'll call for the offenses to produce at a level similar to Game 1, which was a 5-3 final. 10* Over Ducks/Oilers

10* Kansas City (2:10 ET): In the interest of full disclosure, I was set to play this matchup last night, but it got rained out. Therefore, the analysis will remain largely the same. Maybe a day off is what the Royals needed to put this long losing streak of theirs (now at EIGHT games) to bed? Friday night, they appeared to be well on their way w/ a 3-0 lead after three innings and 4-2 entering the eighth. But that is when things went awry as B2B two-run doubles by the Twins' Miguel Sano and Joe Mauer spoiled the Royals' return home after a dreadful road trip. What's really frustrating about that final result (6-4 Twins) is that KC got a strong starting pitching performance from Ian Kennedy, who retired the first 10 batters. In fact, Minnesota had managed only two hits through the first seven innings. Sunday, the Royals hand the baseball to Jason Hammel, who was scheduled for Saturday.

Now Hammel is hardly off to a great start to 2017. In fact, his team start record is 0-4 w/ a 5.30 ERA and 1.768 WHIP. Last time out, he lasted just three innings and gave up three runs at Texas. But in his previous home start, he went six innings and allowed just one run against San Francisco. So that's definitely encouraging. Hammel also hasn't exactly gotten a ton of run support thus far (three runs or less in every game), so he could certainly use some help from the offense. The good news is that the four runs scored Friday showed signs of breaking out of a slump which has seen the KC lineup score two runs or fewer 9 of the past 10 games. Hammel is typically a strong pitcher at the start of the year as his 19 career wins in April are the most for any month.

Twins starter Phil Hughes has certainly not had a good time in the past pitching here at Kauffman Stadium. In seven career tries, his ERA is 5.49. While Hughes pitched well his last time out (in Texas), he certainly did not in his two starts prior to that one as he gave up a total of 10 runs in just nine total innings of work. He's yet another Twins starter w/ a low strikeout rate. The Twins finished w/ fewer hits than KC Friday night and I have to go back to the revenge angle here as the Royals were swept up in Minnesota earlier this month. It's just too hard to continue beating the same team on a daily basis, particularly if it's a division rival. 10* Kansas City

10* Over Jazz/Clippers (3:30 ET): Utah will likely "rue the day" that they blew a chance to close out the Clippers at home. They dropped Game 6, 98-93 as 5.5-pt favorites, and now must go into Staples Center to play a winner take all Game 7. As you've undoubtedly heard, home teams have historically dominated Game 7's in the NBA Playoffs (notwithstanding Golden State's loss in LY's NBA Finals!), going 101-25 SU all-time including 39-25-2 ATS since '90. Throw in the fact that LA is 28-9 SU as home chalk and history does clearly favor one side here. But I believe the better bet is still on the total. Game 6 fell just a bucket short of going Over and for a second straight game we have the lowest O/U for the series. It's too low this time. Take the Over.

Both teams' total points per game average clearly exceed today's O/U line. Even the Jazz, who allowed the fewest PPG in the league during the regular season and play at one of the slowest paces, and there's room to spare. The Clippers average 108.7 PPG at home, so this is a VERY low total for them. Shockingly, they've been able to crack the century mark just ONCE in this series, but there's also been only one time they didn't score 95. I feel they're due for a breakout offensive performance today, even w/o Blake Griffin, who is done for the year. Game 6 saw them shoot 49.3% from the field and were in not for a free throw disadvantage, then the game would have been more lopsided. It should also be pointed out the LA only scored 20 pts in the fourth quarter Friday night.

With Utah, I expect them to shoot far better here than they did on an "off-night" in Game 6. They were just 41% from the field and 7 of 26 from three-point range. For the year, they are at 46.6% overall and 37.2% from three-point range. Again, I have to come back to the fact this is a really low O/U by 2017 NBA standards. The average O/U line for the Jazz this year is 198.0. For the Clippers, its considerably higher at 210. This will in fact be their lowest total ALL SEASON! The first three games here in LA have all stayed Under, so it makes sense that the total has dropped. But now it's too low and it's time for one to go Over. 10* Over Jazz/Clippers

8* Cleveland (1:10 ET): After losing as big ML favorites in Friday night's series opener, the Tribe battled back to defeat the Mariners yday, 4-3. The game was interesting for a variety of reasons. First off, all seven runs were scored in the first inning. Cleveland held Seattle w/o a hit over the final eight frames, thanks to a masterful effort from Danny Salazar and the team's two ace relievers (Andrew Miller, Cody Allen). For the M's, they had a player (Boog Powell) make his MLB debut, though he didn't actually get up to bat. Of course, neither did the majority of Seattle's lineup. Another big league debut is Con tap for the road team today, this time a starting pitcher, Chase De Jong. I don't like the situation nor his chances against an Indians team that has won 8 of its last 11. 

Coming off a World Series appearance, it has not been the dominant start to the season that Cleveland had hoped for. But, as I just alluded to, they've started to get things going. So too has today's starter, Josh Tomlin. Tomlin was a disaster in his first two starts, but has since bounced back w/ a pair of quality outings. Last time out, he stood toe to toe w/ Houston's former Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel, giving up just 3 ER in 6 IP. He struck out six and walked none. In six career appearances vs. Seattle, he's gone 4-1 w/ a 3.32 ERA. His KW ratio is 37-5. Control has never been a concern with Tomlin has he's gone 35 consecutive starts w/o walking more than two batters. Last year saw him lead the American League in fewest walks per nine innings.

Tomlin shouldn't be too concerned w/ a Mariners lineup which is batting a collective .225 in road games. Obviously, they did little yday outside the first inning. On the flip side, I expect Cleveland's hitters to have their way w/ De Jong. Technically, this is not De Jong's big league debut as he's worked out of the bullpen twice. But it's his first start, a spot necessitated by Felix Hernandez going to the D.L. If this one comes down the bullpens, it's a no contest as Cleveland has one of the best in baseball thanks to Miller and Allen. Seattle relievers have been shaky all season, a big reason why the team is only 5-11 away from Safeco Field. 8* Cleveland

8* Washington (1:05 ET): Both of these teams won their respective first round series in six games. The Wizards ousted the Hawks while the Celtics took care of the Bulls. However, as recently as 10 days ago, one might find it hard to believe that both teams would finish off their opponents in the same time. Washington jumped out to a 2-0 series lead on the Hawks, before dropping both games in Atlanta. But, on the road in Game 6, they wound up playing their "best" game of the series, finishing things off w/ a 115-99 win and cover. While they did led the Hawks get back into the game, the Wiz led by as many as 22 - again, on the road. Meanwhile, it's easy to forget, but Boston once trailed the 8th seeded Bulls two games to none before storming back to win and cover four straight. That series clearly turned on the (Rajon) Rondo injury. I'm not sure Washington isn't the better team here, so I'll gladly grab the points. 

These teams split the regular season series with the home team winning all four meetings. Washington has actually lost and failed to cover five in a row here in Boston. But both regular season matchups here were close (decided by single digits), something that was NOT the case in D.C. Something to consider is that prior to the Game 6 closeout of Chicago, Boston was just 2-15 ATS this season when on a win streak of three or more games. Again, they were quite lucky that Rondo got hurt as a middling Bulls team was a lot worse off w/o him. The Celtics' own star player, Isaiah Thomas, has some question marks coming into this series as well. He just attended the funeral for his sister, who was tragically killed in an auto accident, yesterday. The quick turnaround between series certainly does him no favors. 

I believe the best player in this series has "Wizards" on the front of his jersey. That would be John Wall, who went for 42 pts in the closeout game of Atlanta. Now Wall's 17.8 PPG average vs. Boston in the reg season was his lowest vs. any Eastern Conference opponent this year. But, Bradley Beal more than helped pick up the slack by averaging 28.3 PPG in the three matchups he played. Offensively, the Wizards will present a far greater challenge to the Celtics than the inept Bulls (30th in eff FG%) did. For the sake of comparison, the Wiz are sixth in eff FG%. Note they are also 8-3 ATS off a SU win as a dog this season. 8* Washington

10* Washington (8:05 ET): No team has more pressure on it than the Capitals. Back to back President's Trophies (most points in regular season) mean little when you can't advance past the second round. The last time the Caps made the Eastern Conference Finals was 1998. Last year saw them eliminated in six games by the Pittsburgh Penguins. They again have (or should I say "had") the home ice edge this year, but immediately lost it w/ a 3-2 loss in Game 1 Thursday. That despite owning a 35-21 edge in shots on goal. When you add in missed shots and blocked shots, the Caps had nearly a 2:1 edge for the game. But they still found themselves down 2-0 after giving up B2B goals in the first 1:04 of the second period. They rallied back to tie the game and seemingly had "momentum," but then came Nick Bonino's game winner.

I cannot see Washington dropping B2B home games. Wanna know why? Because it didn't happen a single time during the regular season! All-time, the franchise is 10-6 SU in Game 2's after dropping Game 1. Remember, not only was this the third highest scoring team in the regular season, they were #1 in goals allowed. They were also third on the power play and seventh on the penalty kill. So there's really nothing they don't excel at. This is the most talented team in the league. All season long, Pittsburgh has been able to get away w/ giving up high shot totals. They were tied (w/ Toronto, the team Washington beat in Rd 1) for the third most in the regular season at 32.6 per game. In the playoffs, they've been even worse, allowing a frightening 38.2 per game, which is by far the most. 

Yes, Carl Hagelin could return here for Pittsburgh. But Washington remains the more talented side. They have Braden Holtby in goal. He was second in goals against average (2.07) and third in save percentage (.925). I still remain unsold on Marc-Andre Fleury being able to get the job done on an every game basis for Pittsburgh. So far, he's been shockingly good as Matt Murray remains out w/ a lower body injury. But his save percentage on the road this season is just .888, which is really bad. Washington is 25-12 against teams w/ a winning record this year while Pittsburgh is only 20-16 even after ousting Columbus in just five games. Must win here for the Caps and they get it done. 10* Washington

8* NY Rangers (3:05 ET): I lost w/ the Rangers in Game 1, but will still come right back w/ them in Game 2. My initial analysis and read on the series still stand. Ottawa is the lone playoff team that was outscored during the regular season. They were a pedestrian 22nd in goals scored. So far in the playoffs, they've been fortunate in the sense that all five victories have been by one goal. The Rangers, despite finishing fourth in the tougher Metro, had more points in the regular season than did the Senators. Game 1 loss aside, Henrik Lundqvist has clearly regained "old form" as his save percentage in the playoffs is now .948. The Rangers don't dare want to fall into an 0-2 series hole and thankfully they posted the best road record in the league during the regular season. 

Game 1 saw Ottawa outshoot the Rangers, 43-35. Erik Karlsson continued his almost preposterous postseason w/ the game winning goal at the 15:49 mark of the third period. It was the game's lone even strength goal and a bit of a fluke. Those final four minutes also marked the only time during the game that Ottawa led. Something worth noting is that fan support was hardly at its apex in the Canadian Tire Center Thursday night as there were AT LEAST 3,000 empty seats. So much for making the most of your home ice advantage. I've been a bit surprised to see the Sens convert on the power play at a 22.2% rate in the playoffs after ranking 22nd in that department in the regular season. Their penalty kill was only 23rd. So special teams were an issue all year long.

Allow me to remind you that the Rangers were 4th in the league in goals per game in the regular season. They are 12-2 this year after being held to one goal or less in the previous game. That includes a win in Game 4 of the Montreal series. So, history says they bounce back here. Lundqvist always gives them a fighting chance as the 41-save effort was strong in Game 1 and he definitely looked like the better netminder compared to counterpart Craig Anderson. Moreso than Boston, the Rangers have the right personnel to break the Sens' trap. They even the series up Saturday afternoon. 8* NY Rangers

8* NY Yankees (1:05 ET): The Yanks dealt the O's a major blow Friday in turning a 9-1 deficit into a 14-11 win. You have to feel that it's going to be tough for Baltimore to "get back up off the mat" after that result. What happened was a bevy of home runs from the team wearing pinstripes, five to be exact, the final one being a walkoff from Matt Holliday in the bottom half of the 10th. That results leaves the teams tied a top the American League East at 14-7 overall. But run differential doesn't lie and the fact that the Yanks are now a MLB-best +38 in that department (Baltimore only +6) certainly "means something." That something is that I'm backing the home team Saturday afternoon as they look to make it four in a row overall and run their record in the Bronx to 10-1! 

NY skipper Joe Girardi, like counterpart Buck Showalter, has been defying the advanced stats for years now. They've not had a single losing season during his tenure (2008-), but what's most impressive about that is that three of the past four seasons have seen the club be outscored by its opponents. But, as referenced earlier, this year has been a different story. No team has a better run differential in the sport. The offense is top five in all key categories, but clearly the bigger reason for success has been a pitching staff which ranks 2nd in ERA, 1st in WHIP and 2nd in opponents' batting average. So allowing 11 runs yday was clearly an abberration. Among American League teams, only the White Sox (!) have allowed fewer runs this season. Saturday's starter Michael Pineda has certainly done his part w/ a 2.75 ERA and 0.813 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which have resulted in Yankee victories. Behind him is one of the top bullpens in the sport, one that shut the door late last night by allowing zero runs in the final three innings. 

Starting opposite Pineda will be Ubaldo Jimenez, who has a very misleading 4-0 TSR. Though the Orioles have won all four of his starts, rarely has it been because of Jimenez himself. He has an ERA of 5.95 and a WHIP of 1.628 and has failed to make it out of the fifth inning three times. Last time out was his shortest stint to date as he gave up three runs in just 3 1/3 IP against Tampa Bay. Not only has Jimenez allowed 4 HR's already this season, but he has the same number of walks (12) as he does K's. For the sake of comparison, Pineda has a 29-3 KW rate this year. Baltimore's bullpen is still w/o Zach Britton and has poor marks on the road, certainly not helped by last night. The Yankees are simply the better team here and have been dominant at home, outscoring foes by nearly two full runs per game. 8* NY Yankees

10* Over Clippers/Jazz (10:35 ET): This is yet another instance where a team facing a two games to one deficit has battled back to take control of the series. Utah blew a late lead (at home) in Game 3, but has since put together B2B wins to put the Clippers in a "must-win" spot. This series began w/ the Jazz getting an injury scare (lost Rudy Gobert on the 1st play of Game 1), but he's since returned to the lineup. It was another injury, this one to the Clippers' Blake Griffin (done for the year), that has turned the series. Now Utah has a chance to close out the series at home. Not sure if they do, but I do really like Game 6 to go Over the total. Unless something unforeseen happens, tonight's O/U line will - easily - close as the lowest for any game in the series to date.

Now Utah is one of the top defensive teams in the league. They allow only 95.3 PPG at home. But their total points per game average, whether we're talking overall or just at home, still exceeds the O/U line here. Until the fourth quarter, Game 5 was a low-scoring affair w/ the Jazz leading 64-58 after three quarters. Neither team shot well w/ the Jazz at 43.2% and the Clippers at 42.0%. We should see improvement on both sides tonight. Los Angeles has actually shot poorly in B2B games as they were at only 44 percent in Game 4. For the year, the team shoots above 47% from the floor and 37% from three-point range. They average 108.1 points per game and that average does not dip significantly on the road.

But the Clippers' defense tends to regress significantly outside of the Staples Center. They allow 107.9 PPG on the road, up from 100.3 PPG at home. Not surprisingly then, the Over is 28-15 in all their road games this season. Both games in Utah went Over as well w/ the Jazz scoring 105 and 106 points. The final regular season meeting in Salt Lake City, which ended up being a 114-108 Jazz win, also easily went Over. Six of the past eight meetings here have gone Over. With Clippers' road games averaging 215.5 points per game, it would take an almost Hurculean Jazz defensive effort to make up for the discrepancy here. Even w/o Griffin, I expect the Clippers to score enough here to held send this one Over the total. 10* Over Clippers/Jazz

10* Anaheim (10:35 ET): Given that Anaheim posted one of the best home records in the league during the regular season (29-8-4) and (obviously) took both games here during their first round sweep of Calgary, the likelihood of them dropping B2B games to Edmonton seems pretty minimal. Game 1 saw the Oilers hand the Ducks their first regulation defeat of any kind ... since March 10th! It was also the Ducks' first regulation loss at home since March 5th. The Oilers are still the only team to beat the Ducks in April, having now done so twice. A third-period meltdown where Anaheim allowed four goals was downright shocking considering this is a team that ranked third in the league in goals per game during the regular season and fourth on the PK. I think they'll bounce back to take Game 2 tonight at the Pond. 

Key the Oilers' Game 1 victory was the fact that they got a lot of contributions from players not named Conor McDavid. In fact, their star player had just one point in the game, an assist. It's a little rare for Edmonton to succeed when McDavid isn't producing. In fact, their Corsi for percentage this year is just 45.6 w/ McDavid off the ice. They were outshot, 36-32, in Game 1. Since that 7-0 drubbing they took in Game 4 of the Sharks series, the Oilers haven't lost. But they have allowed 14 goals in the L4 games. Offensively, they are averaging only 2.4 goals per game in the postseason. So I'd look for a bounce back type performance from Anaheim goaltender John Gibson, who has a .933 save percentage at home this year.

Anaheim is - by far - the more experienced side here, so don't expect them to panic. Earlier, I talked about how long ago it was that the team last tasted defeat in regulation. Well, they also have lost B2B games only once over the last two and half months, both of those coming in overtime, on the road. (Edmonton was responsible for the one, on April 1). Over his L4 games, Cam Talbot has a save percentage of only .898, so that's something to worry about. Only two of the five goals allowed by Anaheim in Game 1 came at even strength (two on power play, one empty-netter). Cam Fowler is also back on the ice for the Ducks, which is a big deal. This is a virtual "must-win" for the home team. 10* Anaheim

10* Kansas City (8:15 ET): The Royals return home to Kauffman Stadium looking for answers. They're in last place in the American League Central after taking seven consecutive losses, all on the road. Offense has been virtually non-existent for a club only two years removed from winning the World Series. In fact, they've now been held to two runs or fewer in 9 of their last 10 games. After just getting swept by the Rangers and White Sox, they'll be looking to avenge another sweep this weekend, that being one that took place earlier in the year at Minnesota. Clearly, as you can tell from all these sweeps, the Royals haven't played well on the road this season (2-11!), but they are a respectable 5-3 at home and I see them getting back on track tonight.

Neither starting pitcher for Friday's series opener has a win to his name thus far in 2017. But there is no denying that KC's Ian Kennedy has pitched much better than has Minnesota's Kyle Gibson. Kennedy has a 2.08 ERA and 1.038 WHIP in four starts while Gibson has a 9.00 ERA and 1.882 WHIP in his four. Last time out, Gibson made it only 2 2/3 innings and gave up seven runs. His strikeout numbers, a perennial "bugaboo" for the entire Twins' staff, have also been poor. In 17 innings of work, he has just 12 K's against seven walks. He's also allowed a home run in every start (five total). As for Kennedy, he's made three consecutive quality starts and allowed only 3 ER in the process. His last home start was the "best of the bunch" considering he went eight full innings w/o giving up a single run (only two hits!) and he struck out 10. Fortunately, his offense managed to score once (in the ninth!), so while it was a no-decision for him, it was still a win for the Royals.

The shame of Kansas City's hitters not producing is that the pitching staff has been pretty good. The team has somehow lost four times this year in games where it allowed two runs or fewer. Two of those have come w/ Kennedy on the bump. Last time out, he surrendered only a run and four hits in 7 IP at Texas, but the team still lost 2-1. This lack of luck has to change sooner rather than later and it should be pointed out that Minnesota has given up double digit runs in three of its last eight games. This could be the spot where the Royals' offense finally breaks out. Remember, they were 15-4 vs. the Twins last year, including 9-1 here at home. 10* Kansas City

8* Run Line NY Mets (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Mets +1.5. New York is in a terrible way right now, having dropped six straight - all at home. So, perhaps leaving Queens might do them some good. What will eventually be a seven-game trek starts in the Nation's capital as they look to avenge a sweep at the hands of the Nationals from last weekend. I realize that there aren't a whole lot of positives to write about the Mets right now, but getting a pitcher the caliber of Jacob deGrom plus additonal run and a half to work with is a nice value. Taking teams in this revenge spot (if swept in previous series) is also something I do often as it's quite difficult to continually beat the same team on a regular basis, particulary if it's a division rival. The Mets do no worse than a one-run loss here. 

deGrom has yet to win this season, but he's pitched well in his four starts thus far. He has a 2.55 ERA overall and a 1.00 WHIP on the road. Last time out, he was a single out away from making it four consecutive quality starts to open 2017. It was certainly a strange outing LW vs. Washington as deGrom not only struck out 10, but also walked six batters. That latter number is what cost him the quality start as he had to be pulled earlier than expected. But despite all those free passes and allowing eight hits, deGrom only allowed three runners to score. In his first three starts combined, he allowed just four runs in 19 innings. He's recorded a total of 23 K's in his last two starts, which is impressive as well. The control issues which plagued him in his last start are uncommon and I wound not expect a repeat of that here. In eight career starts vs. Washington, deGrom has an ERA of 3.33.

Washington, on the other hand, comes into the series on fire. They've won 9 of 10 and just scored an insane 42 runs in three wins at Colorado. But that level of offensive firepower simply cannot be maintained and one must consider the environment they were playing in (Coors Field). The Mets have generally been competitive, even while losing, as just one game during the streak has been decided by more than three runs. They also have as many wins on the road (4) in seven games as they do in 14 home games. I realize that facing Max Scherzer is certainly not something that seems ideal, but note that the Nats' ace was beaten in his lone home start so far and one of his wins came by a one-run margin. Last time out, when he faced the Mets, he allowed a season high 3 ER. 8* Run Line NY Mets (+1.5)

10* Under Padres/D'backs (9:40 ET): I realize that Arizona has been hitting the cover off the baseball so far at Chase Field, but them averaging 7.3 runs per game here w/ a collective batting average of .324 isn't likely to last. In fact, just last night we saw them score "only" five times in suffering their first loss of the series to the division rival Padres. San Diego is also a major reason why I'm stunned at how high this total is. For years now, the Padres have been one of the lightest hitting teams in all of baseball. Yesterday aside, that trend has continued into 2017 as their team batting average is only .224, which is 26th in MLB. They're also 28th in on base percentage. They will not score eight runs again like last night. Take the Under. 

Mock the Padres signing of Jered Weaver all you want (I certainly have!), but the veteran has come in and pitched surprisingly well thus far. While the team has lost all of four of his starts, Weaver has a WHIP of 1.00. The home run ball has been a problem, but he's coming off three consecutive quality outings. His best start of the year, ironically, came at Coors Field. Something to point out w/ the Padres' offense is that they scored five runs in the top of the ninth yday as embattled Arizona reliever Fernando Rodney imploded yet again. Through eight innings, they had managed just three runs on six hits. I really don't understand the oddsmakers move to bump up the total for this series finale, at all. 

Taijuan Walker gets the baseball here for the D'backs. He's faced the Giants and Dodgers twice so far in 2017. He finished w/ a 13-2 KW rate against the Dodgers and won both games. He did make one mistake his last time out, a two-run homer in the first inning, but other than that he's allowed only three run in his last 10 2/3 innings of work. Because Walker previously pitched for Seattle (a regular interleague opponent for the Padres), this won't be the first time he's seen San Diego. In two career starts against them, his ERA is 1.50. I realize that the first three games of the series have all gone Over, but look for both offenses (especially SD's) to taper off in tonight's finale. 10* Under Padres/D'backs

10* Milwaukee (7:05 ET): For the 1st time, the Bucks trail in the series and now they face a "must-win" to stay alive in Game 6. Thankfully, they get the contest at home. The reason that they are in this position is that they lost in Toronto, 118-93 on Monday. It was their second straight double digit loss to the Raptors and I continue to be astounded at how few points Milwaukee is scoring. But, as alluded to earlier, I like the home team in this spot as Toronto is just 1-6 ATS all-time when leading in a playoff series, including 0-4 the L3 years. Not only that, but the Raptors were red hot from the field in Game #5 (57.7% overall) and probably will be unable to match that. The Bucks need more than just 63 total points outside of Giannia Antetoukounmpo, which is what they got in the last game. Fortunately, at home, "The Greek Freak" should have more support. Lay the very short number. 

Milwaukee won both Games 1 and 3 of this series. Game 3, which was here at home, saw them completely dominate en route to an easy 104-77 win and cover as two-point chalk. While they didn't shoot the ball well at all in Game 4, Game 5 they did as they finished 50% from the floor. They were even 10 of 22 from three-point range. Missing 11 free throws certainly hurt, but the bottom line is that Toronto simply found a way to get even hotter. Fortunately, the Bucks are 6-2 straight up this year following a game where they allowed 115+ points.

Earlier, I briefly touched upon Toronto's past playoff failures at the betting window. Well, they've also NEVER won three consecutive playoff games in their franchise history. So they have that working against them tonight. One player to monitor here is Bucks' guard Khris Middleton. He obviously wasn't feeling well in the last game and it showed w/ him shooting just 3 of 8 and going for only eight points. He sat out Wednesday's practice, but will set to go for the game. He's averaged 13.6 points, 4.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game for the series. Coming off a blowout loss, I feel that the Bucks are being written off a bit too much considering that this has been a relatively even series (Raptors have only outscored Bucks by a single point). 10* Milwaukee

10* NY Rangers (7:05 ET): Last night, a key factor in me playing the Predators against the Blues was the fact Nashville was favored to win the series, yet an underdog in Game 1. Had it not been for the public not being fooled one iota, the same thing would have been the case here. The Rangers come in favored to oust Ottawa, not just from the playoffs, but here on the road for Game 1 as well. That makes sense. Not only did NY finish w/ more total points, but the Senators are the ONLY playoff team that was outscored during the regular season. Henrik Lundqvist appears to have regained old form at the perfect time, so you can count me in w/ the majority here in taking the Rangers, who are a league-best 29-13-2 on the road this year.

I do have to tip my cap to the Sens for outshooting the Bruins in Round 1. That's no small feat. Boston led the league in shot per game differential in the regular season (+7.4) and that was one of several reasons why I did NOT like Ottawa to advance in that series. But they did. But still, all four wins were by one goal and three were in overtime. So, they by no means dominated. The fact that they twice scored four goals in a game was really surprising considering this club ranked only 22nd in goals per game during the regular season. I also should point out that compared to the Rangers, the Sens are lacking in postseason experience. This is their first trip to the second round since 2013 and just the second since the franchise's long run to the Stanley Cup Finals, back in '07. 

In Round 1, the Rangers may have allowed more shots on goal than you'd typically like to see, but they have Henrik Lundqvist to alleviate the issue. Lundqvist turned in a fantastic .947 save percentage against Montreal, stoppping 195 of 206 shots. Offensively, the Rangers ranked fourth in the regular season in goals per game. Ottawa may have won the season series, 2-1, but the second win came late in the year when the Rangers were resting players. At full strength, New York is the better team here, even in the opponent's rink. 10* NY Rangers

8* Cleveland (6:10 ET): The Indians squared away this potential ALCS preview at one game apiece by holding on for a 7-6 win yday. Having earned a split against the Astros' two frontline starters (Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers) should be considered a "moral victory" of sorts for the Tribe, who can now send out their own ace Thursday, that being Corey Kluber, who just tossed a CG shutout in his last start. Last night saw Cleveland jump all over McCullers and take an early 3-0 lead. Things got dicey late (Astros scored twice in top of the eighth) before Cody Allen came in for the four-out save. I can see them pouncing on tonight's Houston starter as well, Michael Fiers, and with Kluber pitching, the runs allowed side of the ledger should be just fine.

Fiers may have a 2-1 team start record, but he's yet to record a winning decision for himself, nor has he deserved one. Well, maybe his first outing of the year against Kansas City. There he gave up only two runs (one earned) in six innings. But he did walk three. The long ball has been a real problem thus far as the number of HR's allowed by Fiers has incremently risen w/ each passing start. He gave up two in his second start (at Seattle) and then three his last time out, which was at Tampa Bay. Those L2 starts lasted only a total of nine innings and like this one, both were on the road. The fact that the Astros won both of Fiers' road starts seems highly fortunate. The offense did score 16 runs, but that kind of help isn't to be expected here tonight against Kluber.

As mentioned earlier, Kluber went the distance his last time out and didn't give up a single run. He held the White Sox to only three hits and no runner ever even reached second base! Kluber also has 17 K's over his last two starts. The Cleveland lineup has been strengthened by the return of Michael Brantley this year. Limited to only 11 games in 2016, Brantley had 15 RBI's in his last 17 games and comes into today riding a 10-game hitting streak (.381). Three of those RBI's came yesterday. Meanwhile, Houston's lineup is not at full strength. They are expected to be w/o Jose Altuve, George Springer and Jake Marisnick again Thursday. Those are all key losses and a major reason reason to fade when facing Kluber. 8* Cleveland

10* Over Bulls/Celtics (8:35 ET): The trajectory of this series, which has yet to see the home team win (or cover) a single game, altered dramatically over the course of the two games in Chicago. The Bulls returned home with what appeared to be a commanding two games to none advantage, but they lost PG Rajon Rondo to injury and then the next two games as well. Thus, the Celtics are back in the driver's seat, having regained homecourt advantage. There are reports that Rondo will try to play tonight, but I'm refaining from any kind of wager on the side and instead looking at the total. This is the lowest O/U line yet for any game in this series, thus it seems like an opportune time to strike w/ an Over play. Both games in Chicago stayed Under, but we're in Boston now where six of the past seven head to head meetings have gone Over, including both Games 1 & 2. 

In my previous analysis, I noted that the Bulls have been one of the worst shooting teams in the league all year long. But, for the purposes of this series, it has also been established that they have a massive rebounding edge. That somewhat negates the poor shooting we could see from them. In three of the four games in this series, Chicago has been below 43% from the field, although they still scored 106 points in Game 1 despite doing so. Game 2 (here in Boston) was their best shooting performance of the series, easily. Note Boston actually gives up a higher number of points per game at home this year (105.6) and it's not as if they were some kind of stalwart defensively during the regular seasons as they ranked outside the top 10 in efficiency. 

The Celtics can obviously score as well as is evident by the fact they average a healthy 109.0 PPG at home. They were held below that average in both Games 1 & 2, so expect a reprieve here. The Bulls appear to have no answer defensively for Isaiah Thomas, who scored 33 points in Game 4. Boston has actually yet to hit their overall scoring average for the season even once in this series, so they're about "due." Something else to keep in mind is that these are two of the better free throw shooting teams in the league (both over 80%!), so they shouldn't be leaving a lot of points at the line. Both teams' total PPG averages for the season exceed what the O/U line is for tonight. 10* Over Bulls/Celtics

10* Texas (8:05 ET): I won w/ the Under in the series opener between these two on Monday (which was a 3-2 win by the Twins). Then the Rangers got humiliated last night, losing again to the Twins, this time by a score of 8-1. That makes it B2B losses at home for LY's AL West Champs after sweeping Kansas City here over the weekend. Coming into the year, Texas was a team likely to regress anyway given that LY's 95-win campaign was built on the backbone of an extraordinarily fortunate 36-11 record in one-run games, the best such mark in MLB HISTORY (run differential was only +8!). But I have the home team bouncing back this evening as they send Cole Hamels to the bump to face a team that has struggled to hit left-handed pitching so far this season. 

Texas hasn't done much hitting in its own right lately. Over its L8 games, they've been held to two runs or fewer six times. Fortunately for them, they were bailed out in the Royals series by some extraordinary pitching performances. One came from Hamels, who despite only 3 K's, allowed only one run and three hits in eight impressive innings of work. That was actually the 1st time this season the Rangers won w/ their ace on the mound and the 1st time he didn't allow a home run. But, as teased before, the Twins are batting a collective .219 against left-handed starters so far and thus I anticipate Hamels will pitch well again tonight. In his two starts in Arlington thus far, Hamels has produced a WHIP of 0.786. So, despite the 1-3 TSR, it's not as if he's pitched poorly. 

Minnesota will counter w/ Hector Santiago, himself off to a strong start to 2017. Santiago is also probably deserving of a better team start record given that he's allowed only six runs all year in 24 2/3 innings of work. But I'm going to go ahead and call for the Texas lineup to break out of its slump tonight. Santiago has not pitched well in his career against the Rangers, posting a 4.04 ERA in 20 appearances. Last year alone, his ERA was 6.63 in three matchups when he was w/ the Angels. So the Rangers' hitters know him well. Something to keep in mind is that Minnesota has just one win streak of more than two games this season. It came when they started the season 4-0. Since then, they're just 6-10 overall and I just can't see them sweeping this series on the road. 10* Texas

10* Nashville (8:05 ET): Normally, ousting a team that had the best regular season goal differential in your Conference in just five games would qualify as the most impressive performance of a given round of the playoffs. Especially when your goaltender posts a .956 save percentage and you win three times on the road. But what St. Louis did to Minnesota simply does not compare to the incredible job put forth by Nashville in Rd 1 as they swept the Blackhawks right out of the playoffs, allowing only three goals total in the process! Pekka Rinne turned in an other-worldly .976 save percentage in the series, so he's the hotter of the two goaltenders here and the Preds are actually favored to win this series, thus making them appear to be an outstanding value tonight in Game 1. 

Now Nashville did not perform well in the regular season when taking the ice w/ three or more days' rest. In fact, they were 0-6 in that situation. But Game 1 of the Chicago series was a different story as they won 1-0. They followed w/ another shutout in Game 2 (5-0!) and then held serve in both home games to sweep the series. Remember, this team somewhat underachieved this year as they were projected to be a top contender in the West thanks to the addition of former Norris Trophy winner PK Subban to the blue line. But their Corsi for percentage still ranked very high and was indicative of a team that could be dangerous in the playoffs. In particular, the Forsberg-Johansen-Arvidsson line has been dominant. Forsberg and Johansen EACH had 11 points in Round 1!

While St. Louis seemed impressive in ousting the Wild in just five games, they really were quite fortunate. Not only to win both overtime games in Minnesota, but also because they were outshot rather dramatically over the course of the series. They allowed an average of 36.4 shots per game while at the same time, putting only 26.8 per game on net themselves. Their Corsi for percentage was just 39.1 for the series. This was a problem throughout the year, but luckily Allen has been there to bail them out down the stretch. But unlike Minnesota, Nashville is a team playing its best hockey of the year right now. Yes, the Blues won the only meeting after their midseason coaching change (4-1 here at home on 4.2), but even then, they were outshot 36-25 and had the luxury of not having to face Rinne. I feel the Predators are the better team here. 10* Nashville

8* Run Line Detroit (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Tigers +1.5. Not sure why you wouldn't want to grab the additional 1.5 runs here w/ the team that has scored an impressive 32 runs in its last two games, including 19 yday at the Mariners' expense. Those two performances have taken the Tigers' run differential from an ugly -24 to -4 rather quickly and while that's still not necessarily what you want to see from a division leader (Tigers now lead Cleveland by 1 game), it's something you can work with. I played Detroit on the RL yday and obviously did not even need the +1.5 as Felix Hernandez left early for Seattle and the Tigers lineup - sans Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez and Jose Iglesias - put the game "to bed" early w/ a nine-run fifth that gave them a 16-4 lead at the time. Given Seattle's road woes, I can't see the home team doing any worse than a one-run loss here.

Seattle's struggles away from Safeco Field were a primary reason for me playing against them yday. They're now just 2-10 in road games so far. They've been outscored by an average of 1.4 rpg and even after their own strong offensive output Tuesday, they still are hitting only a collective .225 outside the Pacific Northwest. The club's road woes have even extended to tonight's starter James Paxton, who allowed five runs in just 4 2/3 innings his last time out, at Oakland. Prior to that, Paxton had tossed 21 scoreless innings to start the year. But I'm not buying much into that and the Tigers have never been too freindly to him either. The last time Paxton pitched here at Comerica Park, he allowed a career-worst 11 hits. Detroit is 5-1 this season against LH starters.

Starting opposite Paxton will be Daniel Norris, who will be looking to rebound from one of his own worst efforts in recent memory. Last Thursday in Tampa Bay, he allowed five runs (four earned) in just 4 2/3 innings. The Tigers lost 8-1 and it was the most runs allowed by Norris in 22 starts. In fact, he hadn't allowed more than 3 ER in any of the previous 21 starts! Like Detroit, Seattle's lineup is down some key pieces. Kyle Seager (missed L3 games) may be back tonight, but RF Mitch Haniger (who manager Scott Servias called his "most consistent, hottest hitter") left yday's game w/ a strained oblique. He's expected to hit the DL. Given what happened yday and Seattle's overall play on the road, I'm playing this one the same way. 8* Run Line Detroit (+1.5)

10* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): Injuries have taken their toll in this series. While tied at two games apiece, one could argue that the Jazz have been the team to adjust better. Granted, it helped that Rudy Gobert made a surprising return for Game 4, which resulted in a 105-98 win. Meanwhile, the Clippers are still figuring out how to deal w/ the loss of Blake Griffin. But considering the difference in the line here compared to the last time the Clips hosted a game (Gm 2), it seems to me as if the oddsmakers may be overvaluing the loss of Griffin. Is he really worth approximately six points to the spread? That seems like a lot to me when a team still has Chris Paul. Utah, as noted by me previously, has been lousy as an underdog this year (6-19 straight up). Conversely, the Clips are 28-8 SU when priced as a home favorite. I'll lay the short number for Game 5. 

It was an interesting split of the two games in Utah as both saw come from behind efforts. Utah had what appeared to be a commanding double digit lead early in Game 3 before wilting late. Then, the Clippers "returned the favor" in Game 4, blowing an 87-80 fourth quarter advantage. The Jazz shot well in both games (53% overall!), so they are the ones that have to feel they may have let one "slip away." I still think not having the home court edge for the series is a major detriment to them. In the two games here in LA, they averaged only 94 points on roughly 47% shooting. That was despite going 18 of 44 from three-point range, a relatively good percentage. It's a good thing that Gobert came back for Game 4 as All-Star Gordon Hayward missed the entire 2H due to being sick. He's listed as probable for tonight, but I question how effective he'll be. Gobert probably isn't going 6 for 6 from the field again either, nor do I see Joe Johnson continuing his surprising strong play either.

The Clippers clearly need Paul to step up as he did in Game 3. Though the team only turned it over nine times in Game 4, they didn't shoot the ball nearly as well as Utah did (54% to 44%) and that ultinately was the difference. Defensively, the Clips are a much better team at home, allowing just 44% shooting for the year and about 100 PPG. Something else to keep in mind is that they have not lost B2B games since St. Patrick's Day. That's over a month. For the year, they are outscoring opponents by an impressive 11.1 points per game as a home favorite. They've played w/o Griffin before and I think will get the job done here. 10* LA Clippers

10* Arizona (9:40 ET): Things got a bit dicey at the end, but the D'backs were able to hold on for a 7-6 victory in last night's series opener vs. the Padres. It was a game they led 7-1 going into the seventh thanks to another outstanding effort from Zack Greinke, who struck out 11. But once manager Andy Green lifted Greinke, things got interesting. Thankfully, San Diego's rally fell one run short. As was the case w/ yday's matchup, we have a starting pitching rematch from a game played last week. After Greinke was able to gain revenge against Jhuoulys Chacin last night, I see Patrick Corbin doing the same here against Clayton Richard. I see no reason why not to again back Arizona at home where they're now 9-2 and averaging an impressive 7.4 runs per game. 

As discussed in yday's analysis, these teams met last week in San Diego. The Padres took two of three, one of them a 1-0 win in the Chacin-Greinke matchup. Chacin was shockingly able to outduel Greinke there and the same was the case the following day with Richard and Corbin both on the hill. Richard allowed only one run in 6 2/3 innings while striking out eight. But perhaps he "should have" allowed more considering he also gave up nine hits. Corbin, meanwhile, allowed only five hits in six innings, but three runs (despite an identical 8-0 KW ratio). I'm handicapping this one the same as yday as I don't see the same pitcher coming out ahead twice in row. 

Richard had allowed a total of nine runs his previous two starts, so similar to Chacin, I see him regressing the second go around vs. an Arizona lineup that has hit the cover off the baseball here in Chase Field. In addition to scoring 7.4 rpg here, the D'backs are batting a collective .314. On the other hand, the Padres are one of the worst hitting teams in all of baseball (.216 team BA), so things should go easier this time around for Corbin, who tossed six shutout innings (against Cleveland) the last time he pitched at home. I also - again - have to go back to the fact that San Diego was projected to be the worst team in all of baseball this year. Thus, even an 8-13 record has to be considered a mild surprise, even though they're finally starting to slip as they've lost three straight and 8 of their last 11. 10* Arizona

8* Over Grizzlies/Spurs (9:05 ET): After the first two games here in San Antonio, it appeared as if the Spurs advancing was mere formality. After all, they took Game 1 by 29 and Game 2 by 14, making it look relatively easy in the process. But the two games in Memphis went a different way (Grizzlies won both) and now, all of a sudden, the Spurs face a virtual must-win tonight. I think the spread may be a bit high, but the one constant for me in this series has been that the total has been too low. By virtue of going into overtime, Game 4 easily went Over the total. However, OT was actually not necessary to the Over cashing as the game was tied 96-96 at the end of regulation. Two of the first three games went Over (was on both!) and considering tonight's O/U line matches the lowest of the series, that's the way I'm going yet again. 

San Antonio is the most efficient defensive team in the league and gives up only 96.7 points per game at home. But still, their home games average well above the total number of PPG being asked for here. That's due to the fact they also come in averaging 105.5 PPG themselves. Three times in this series, Kawhi Leonard has either matched or established a new career high for most points scored in a playoff game. In Game 4, he went for 43, scoring the team's final 16 in regulation. Unfortunately, he didn't have a ton of help. The rest of the team was an abysmal 2 of 20 from behind the three-point arc and I have to believe that will see guaranteed improvement tonight. The Spurs are 14-8 Over this season when off a loss.

Similarly, Memphis may be known for playing low-scoring affairs, but their total points per game average well exceeds the O/U line here. They actually allowed fewer PPG than the Spurs during the regular season (playing at fewer possessions), but even so, both they and their opponents averaged slightly more than 100 PPG. These are really low totals by 2017 NBA standards. In fact, the average O/U line for both of these teams this season is still > 200 pts. I also believe that the extra day of rest the teams received will be crucial here. That's because Memphis is 9-5 Over this season when playing w/ exactly. The Spurs are 9-3 Over in that same situation. 8* Over Grizzlies/Spurs

8* Run Line Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): Please note that every game in this three-pack is a run line play. Here I am taking the White Sox +1.5. Chicago rocked Kansas City in last night's series opener, winning 12-1, so being able to get a 1.5 run cushion with them tonight seems like a real luxury. Especially considering KC can't score at all right now. Over the last eight games. they have been held to two runs or fewer EVERY TIME out! They've scored just 10 runs total during that span, so the idea of them winning by multiple runs here seems foolishly optimistic. Their lone non one-run victory over the L10 days was a 2-0 game. Starter Danny Duffy seemingly brings some hope, but the White Sox are 5-1 against lefties so far. The home team won't do any worse than a one-run loss here.

These AL Central rivals came into this series as the two lowest scoring offenses in the American League. But the White Sox offense showed up yesterday, totaling a season high in runs and matching a season-best w/ 15 hits. The most impressive thing about the performance is that it came against Jason Vargas, who had the lowest ERA in all of MLB coming into Monday. Therefore, there's no reason fret Duffy, even though he's 4 for 4 so far in terms of quality starts. But one thing to keep an eye on w/ Duffy is that he's walked 10 batters so far. Those extra baserunners allowed haven't really burned him yet, but could here. In addition to 25 hits, Tigers' hitters have drawn eight walks the past two games. That's 33 baserunners total!

Certainly, White Sox starter Dylan Covey might give you pause. He was rocked his last time out, giving up eight runs and 10 hits (three HR's) at Yankee Stadium. But in his first start, he allowed just one run and five hits over 5 1/3 IP. And again, what's to worry about this Royals' lineup? They managed only two hits yday and have scored the fewest number of runs in all of baseball. They're batting just .177 and have gone 2-9 on the road. The decline has been fast from winning the World Series two years ago and I just don't see how the oddsmakers justify installing KC as a road favorite here. Not after the White Sox scored more runs yday than the Royals have over their last eight games - combined! 8* Run Line Chi White Sox (+1.5)

8* Run Line Detroit (7:10 ET): Please note that every game in this three-pack is a run line play. Here I am taking the Tigers +1.5. There was a time when fading Felix Hernandez would be considered foolish. But King Felix is no longer what he once was and he and the Mariners have been downright terrible on the road this year. Thus, there is an opportunity to grab an additional 1.5 runs with the home Tigers here and I'll pounce on it. While I'm a tad bit suspect of the Tigers' 10-8 start (-14 run diff), they have won two straight including a 13-4 win Sunday. Tonight marks their return home from a nine-game road trip. They should be ready to roll in what is only their fifth night game of the season (statistical oddity!). Look for them to do no worse than a one-run loss here.

Seattle is just 2-9 on the road so far w/ the lineup batting a collective .205 in those games. That's a major reason why I'm going against them here. While they did win 11-1 at Oakland Sunday, they'd also dropped the first three games of that series. With Hernandez, he may have won his L2 starts, but both were at home and there's been some warning signs. Such as him allowing a season high in both runs (4) and hits (12) his last time out where he was fortunate to be get plenty of run support. He allowed two home runs in that game, a 10-5 win over Miami, as well. He's now allowed five already this year. It was also the second time in the L3 starts that the former Cy Young winner allowed 10+ hits. He did face Detroit once last year and pitched well, but that was at Safeco Field. Interestingly, the home team won all seven matchups between these two teams in 2016. 

Countering Hernandez will be Jordan Zimmerman. He too was less than stellar his last time out. It's actually been B2B subpar efforts from him. But his first start here at Comerica Park was quality as he held Boston to just one run and four hits in six innings of work. If he can do that to what was the top offense in MLB last season, then why can't he do the same to a lineup that simply hasn't produced on the road this year? I'm well aware of the somewhat "makeshift" lineup the Tigers will be fielding here, but as mentioned before, the group was still able to put together 13 runs in the last game. I suspect the Tigers will be happy to be home and the day off probably did them some good. 8* Run Line Detroit (+1.5)

8* Arizona (9:40 ET): For the second time in six days, Arizona's Zack Greinke and San Diego's Jhoulys Chacin will square off. Last Wednesday, it was Chacin coming away the surprise winner, though only by a 1-0 margin in a game where both starters pitched tremendously. Greinke was his usual self, allowing just one run on five hits over eight innings. But, shockingly, Chacin outdueled him by delivering eight innings of shutout, three-hit ball. One of those pitchers should stick to form tonight and it won't be Chacin. What made his last outing so shocking is that he'd been rocked in two of his first three. Both the "bad ones" came on the road. Moving from Petco Park to Chase Field (where the D'backs are 8-2 and averaging 7.4 rpg) will make all the difference in the world. 

Chacin has been a complete disaster in the two road starts w/ a 14.05 ERA and 2.641 WHIP. He allowed 13 runs in just 8 1/3 innings. Hitter friendly Chase Field is certainly not an ideal environment for him to reverse the trend. Like I already said; the D'backs are hitting the cover off the ball here, averaging 7.4 runs per game while batting a collective .316. In the series at San Diego, they scored 11 times in the opener, but then were held to just a single run in B2B losses. They then returned home to assault Dodgers pitching w/ 24 runs on Friday/Saturday, before being held to only two yesterday, which was just their second loss here all season. Let's also remember San Diego's preseason projection. This is widely expected to be the worst team in baseball this year, so even an 8-12 record should be taken w/ a grain of salt. Regression has already begun to set in w/ the Padres losing 7 of 10. They're just 3-8 on the road.

Greinke has owned San Diego in his career, posting a 1.96 ERA in 17 starts against them. He made just one mistake last time, that was allowing a solo home run to Erick Aybar in the eighth inning. Still, in three of four starts this season, Greinke has allowed 2 ER or less. The Padres are always one of the lightest hitting teams and this year, despite limited success, has been no different. They come into tonight averaging just 3.1 rpg while batting a collective .213. Those numbers simply won't get it done at Chase Field. Look for Greinke to dominate them again while Chacin struggles this time. 8* Arizona

10* Under Twins/Rangers (8:05 ET): I had my suspicions about the Rangers coming into 2017 given that LY's 90+ win campaign included them outscoring opponents by only a measley eight runs! A visit from a Royals team they've now owned the L2 seasons (10-1 head to head!) seems to have gotten them on track, however. They won all four games over the weekend, allowing only five runs in the process. That's pretty impressive, especially since four of those came in the games started by Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish. The team is still below .500, though so is their newest visitor (Minnesota), who has cooled off dramatically since a surprising start. The Twins just gave up 13 runs in a loss to the Tigers yday, but given what we've seen from the Rangers recently, a lower scoring affair is to be expected tonight. Take the Under.

Getting back to Texas' somewhat suspicious success last year, they actually struggled against a Twins team that lost 100+ games. Minnesota won five of seven head to head, scoring 10+ runs three times and scoring at least five in all but one game. But looking at the Rangers' pitching right now, a repeat of that would be highly unlikely. Martin Perez has already made four starts and in three of them, he's allowed three runs or fewer. It was thought that the offense would carry this Twins team, but they've scored more than four runs just twice in the past nine games. Instead, it's been their own pitching that was responsible for the strong start. Before yday (season-high in runs allowed), there had been only three games where they'd allowed more than five runs. 

The Under has gone 6-1 in the Rangers' last seven games, not a surprise given that both them and their opposition is hitting below .200 during that time. They were fortunate that the pitching shined in the Royals series because in two of the games, they scored two runs or fewer. That's now happened in 6 of the past 10 games! Good news for Phil Hughes, who will be looking to bounce back from B2B subpar efforts for the Twins. Signing former Astros catcher Jason Castro has been huge in the pitch framing department so far. Defense, a pitcher's best friend, has also improved dramatically. Backup catcher Chris Gimenez was sadly called into duty Sunday, a shame because the Minnesota bullpen has been another bright spot. Let's also not discount the importance of that half-run in the O/U line here, especially if we are able to avoid playing the bottom of the ninth as I anticipate. 10* Under Twins/Rangers

10* Washington (8:05 ET): Just a few days ago, the Wizards' playoff prospects were looking quite rosy. Not only did they hold a 2-0 series lead over the Hawks, but in the other half of their bracket, the 8-seeded Bulls had the same edge over the top-seeded Celtics. What a difference a couple of days can make! Not only have the Celtics rallied to tie up their series (2-2), but the Wiz were blown out in Game 3 by Atlanta, 116-98. It was a game the Hawks "had to have" and they played like it, leading the entire way. But that one result has created somewhat of an ideal scenario for Game 4 where I believe Washington is a solid value. Atlanta is still a mediocre group in my eyes and the likelihood of them playing that well in B2B games is quite minimal. Take the points. 

Don't blame the great John Wall for the Wizards' Game 3 loss. He scored 29 points, just missing out on a third straight 30+ pt effort. The issue was the other four members of the starting five combined for only 30 points Saturday! I'm willing to write that performance off as a "one-hit wonder" though as Washington fell behind huge early and never recovered. It was a 38-20 game after the first quarter and that 18-pt difference wound up being the final margin. For the Hawks, Paul Milsap and Dennis Schroeder both turned in strong efforts w/ 29 and 27 pts respectively. I wouldn't necessarily be anticipating a repeat of that performance tonight. Meanwhile, Wall's backcourt mate Bradley Beal is in line for a bounce back as he scored only 12 points on 6 of 20 shooting (0 for 6 from three-point range) in Game 3. That was after averaging 26.5 points in the first two games. 

Emotions are running high in this series w/ Markieff Morris and Milsap trading barbs via the media. Note that the impressive and somewhat physical defensive effort we saw from the Hawks in Game 3 is somewhat rare. They actually allow 105.6 PPG at home this year. I often forget Dwight Howard is even on this roster (you too?). After a double digit win, Atlanta is only 6-11 ATS this season. They're also just 4-8 ATS after topping 115 points. I look for improved shooting from Washington tonight and don't discount the importance of them having the best player in the series (Wall) on their roster. 10* Washington

10* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET): After taking the first two games, the defending World Series Champs failed to sweep in Cincinnati over the weekend. They lost 7-5 Sunday, but still are atop the NL Central. That being said, they've been nowhere near as dominant as they were as the start of 2016 when they outscored the opposition by 60+ runs over the first 16 games. Pittsburgh avoided a sweep Sunday w/ a 2-1 win over the Yankees, but has still lost four of six and been outscored by a division worst 16 runs over the course of the season. So, despite what happened yday, there shouldn't be any denying who the better team is here and I think the "price is right" to strike! 

Now, the "better team" certainly failed to assert itself in the first series of 2017 between these two. The Pirates shockingly swept a three-game set at Wrigley Field, which was some payback for going only 4-14 vs. the Cubs last year. The Bucs were significant underdogs on the money line in every game, so if you bet them, you came out well. Pittsburgh averaged 6.0 rpg against Cubs' pitching and that's something you should NOT expect to see again. With the Starling Mare suspension still fresh, the lineup has been held to two runs or less in four of the last six games. At the same time, it's been the Cubs' bats that have woken up lately. They averaged 6.1 rpg over the past week.

On the mound, the Cubs will turn to a lefty Monday, that being Brett Anderson. I anticipate he'll pitch well seeing as the Pirates have a losing record vs. southpaws thus far. Anderson did get rocked his last time out, giving up eight runs in an abbreviated effort in Milwaukee. But before that, he'd allowed just one run in 10 2/3 IP. Many will want to actually give the starting pitching edge here to Pittsburgh's Chad Kuhl, but he's struggled against lefties and that doesn't bode well facing a lineup that includes the names Schwarber, Rizzo, Zobrist and Heyward. Also, Kris Bryant has typically saved some of his best work for Pirates' pitching as 1.087 OPS is his highest vs. any NL opponent. Save for the three-game sweep of the Cubs, the Bucs are 0-6 in division games this year. 10* Chi Cubs

10* Over Raptors/Bucks (7:05 ET): I'm a little astounded as to the lack of scoring we've seen so far in this series. The losing side has been held to 87 points or less in three of the four games, all Unders obviously. The lone Over in the series, Game 2 here in Toronto, was a 106-100 win for the Raptors and I anticipate a similar score tonight. The Raptors average 110.1 points per game here at the Air Canada Center. Milwaukee averages a healthy 103.2 PPG itself for the year. Thus, both teams' total PPG average greatly exceed the O/U line for Game 5, which is officially the lowest for any game in the series to date. Shooting numbers have been pretty ugly on both sides, hence the drop, but I suspect we'll see an increase moving forward. That's why I'm on the Over here.

Game 4, where I had Toronto and they won 87-76, was an ugly slugfest that saw the two teams combine to go 10 of 43 from three-point range. Overall, shooting was at a 39.1% clip for the game (63 of 161). Toronto shot just 33% from the floor in Game 3 and that was after a 20% night in the second half of their other loss (Game 1).  But, I again lean on the fact that this team averages 110.1 PPG at home. They were sixth overall in offensive efficiency during the regular season and it's not as if the Bucks were some kind of defensive stalwart (19th in defensive efficiency). The Over is 27-16 this year at the Air Canada Center, so I can't stress enough how shocking it is to see the Raptors only averaging 88.2 PPG on 39.9% shooting for the series.

When Toronto has lost, the focus has been on their starting backcourt of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry. That duo combined for 51 pts in Game 4 as DeRozan was able to drive w/ far more success than we'd seen previously. There's still only been one time (Game 2) that both topped 20 pts in the same game though. Given both averaged 20+ in the reg season, I think we'll see a repeat of Gm 2. We should also see a dramatic increase in production from the Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, who were a combined 10 of 31 from the floor last game, including 0 for 4 on three-point attempts. Seeing as Milwaukee averages 37.2% shooting from behind the arc and Toronto is above 39% at home, we are very likely to see the two teams combine for more than 30 total pts from three-point range this game. The Bucks are 14-8 Over this season following a DD loss. 10* Over Raptors/Bucks

9* NY Mets (8:05 ET): The Mets seemingly come into Sunday nights' finale w/ the Nationals at a severe disadvantage. They've dropped the first two games of this three game set, at home, and have now dropped three in a row overall. Meanwhile, the Nats have won six in a row and now send Max Scherzer to the hill. But let's not forget that that the Mets were actually favored on the money line in the first two games of this series. Losing twice changes that, but I suspect the change from the oddsmakers has more to do w/ Scherzer's presence than anything else. I feel that's being overvalued. Look for the Mets to avoid the sweep tonight as they salvage a game.

Scherzer absolutely should command respect. After all, he has a 1.37 ERA and 0.864 WHIP through his first three starts. He's been one of the top pitchers in the game for the past several seasons. Last time out, he tossed seven shutout innings of two-hit ball in Atlanta. But the Braves, Cardinals and Phillies (Scherzer's first three opponents) are hardly a "murderer's row." Now his career ERA vs. the Mets (1.38) is his lowest vs. any opponent that he's faced at least ten times. And the Mets have scored only 23 runs in their last eight games. But I'm going to still keep the faith. After all, the Nats have not swept a series here in Queens since 2014. 

The Mets will send Zack Wheeler to the bump. He could use some offensive help, but then again he too is off a strong outing, holding the Phillies to one run and four hits in five innings of work. It's not as if the Nats have been hitting the cover off the ball in this series either. They've scored just three and four runs in the two wins, respectively, and have collected only 13 hits. Nats' hitters have actually drawn as many walks as they have hits in the series, which has been crucial. Wheeler has exhibited pretty good control thus far w/ only four walks in three starts. That's fewer than Scherzer, albeit in fewer innings. Still, it's also a good sign that Washington struck out 15 times yday and Wheeler posted 7 K's in that last start. The Mets are 20-14 the L3 seasons when coming off three straight losses. 9* NY Mets

10* Chicago (6:35 ET): After zigging with my Game of the Week on the Celtics in Game 3, I'll be "zagging" so-to-speak here on the Bulls for Game 4. The home team has yet to win a game in this best of seven affair, which 8th seeded Chicago now leads two games to one. The big story going into Game 3 had been the top seeded Celtics being down 0-2, but quickly shifted once it was annouced that the Bulls' Rajon Rondo would be out for the remainder of the series w/ a broken thumb. The early returns w/o Rondo were not good as the Bulls lost Game 3, 104-87, while committing 17 turnovers and having only 14 assists. But, I believe they'll bounce back tonight, as Rondo's absence really doesn't affect the Bulls' one key edge in this series and that's rebounding. Take the points.

Chicago finished the year 4th in rebound rate. Boston was 4th worst (27th). The Bulls, not surprisingly, currently own a significant edge on the boards through the first three games of this series. In playing Boston Game 3, I somewhat disregarded this edge for the Bulls and instead chose to focus on their poor shooting numbers. Sure enough, Jimmy Butler had an "off-night" as he was 7 of 21 from the field and didn't even attempt a single free throw (just 4th time all season). Now though, I expect Butler specifically and the rest of his teammates to bounce back. As we all know, rebounding is the way to counteract poor shooting. I can't envision Chicago shooting below 40% from the field again at home, which included 6 of 21 from three-point range. At the same time, expect Boston to regress from its 47.7% shooting percentage from Game 3. I also don't expect them to make 17 three-pointers again. 

Boston came into the playoffs as a somewhat shaky #1 seed. After the first two games, they appeared to be even shakier. As I anticipated, they then blew the Bulls out in Game 3, but one result won't change everything, nor will Rondo's absence. Concerning is that the Celtics only got to the FT line SEVEN times in Game 3. I should also mentione that they are just 5-11 ATS (only 9-8 SU) the game following a double digit win. As an underdog, the Bulls are 28-18 ATS this season, including 10-5 at home. They did cut the Boston lead to one (after trailing by as many as 20!) in Game 3. The Bulls are also still the better defensive team here. 10* Chicago

10* Boston (3:05 ET): This play should come as no surprise seeing as I've played the Bruins in all five games so far (Ottawa leads 3-2). I still maintain that they're the better team here for all the reasons previously outlined. While facing elimination and never having rallied back from a 3-1 series deficit in FRANCHISE history, a case could certainly be made that the B's turned the proverbial "corner" in Game 5 w/ a 3-2 win in double overtime. They had to rally back from a two goal deficit to stay alive and now get a home game. I know that the the Bruins are trying to buck history here, but there's a first time for everything, right? Look for Boston to force a deciding Game 7 in Ottawa. 

Many key metrics from the regular season pointed to Boston being the better team here. They had a better goal differential than Ottawa (+22 to -2). In fact, the Senators are the ONLY team to make the playoffs that was outscored in the regular season. Also, the Bruins led the league in shot per game differential and were tops on the penalty kill (85.7%). Surprisingly, they allowed three power play goals in the first three games. But they've been a perfect 8 for 8 in the last two and came up huge in a couple crucial moments in Game 5. Shockingly, they have yet to outshoot the Sens in any individual game in the series. But maybe that bodes well, moving forward? They allow only 25.8 shots per game at home for the year and I now feel Tuukka Rask is outplaying Craig Anderson in goal. 

Of course, all anyone wanted to focus on coming into this series was the fact the Sens swept the regular season series (4-0) from the Bruins. Given what was outlined above, that shocked me. Now, it should be pointed out that five of the now seven wins over the Bruins this year have come by a one-goal margin. One of the others that they won by two goals saw them score an empty-netter. Three have been in overtime. So they've hardly dominated. As you might expect, there's some real attrition (on both sides) with the series being so competitive. Despite absences along the blue line, I feel Boston forces a Game 7 as not only can I not see them losing a sixth straight home game to Ottawa, but I believe them to simply be the better club here. 10* Boston

10* Miami (8:40 ET): The Marlins were a loser for me Friday night here in San Diego. A four-run seventh by the Padres is what decided the game, which had been knotted at 1-1 ever since the second inning. Miami did score two runs in the top of the ninth, but it wasn't nearly enough. Still, I'll come back w/ the Fish tonight. San Diego being 8-10 is a major surprise to me, given their preseason projection of being the worst team in all of baseball. In terms of run differential, they are currently the worst (-26). So, I say it's time for them to start losing some more games. They've shockingly won three in a row here at home, but ye would be correct in having little faith in tonight's starter Jered Weaver, who has an 0-3 TSR w/ a 4.24 ERA and 1.059 WHIP.

Coming into the year, having Weaver as a front-end starter was thought to be a disaster. So far, that thought process has played out on the field. The Padres actually now have a winning record when anyone BUT Weaver is on the hill, but as noted above, they're 0-3 in his starts, all of which have taken place on the road. But don't think a start in pitcher friendly Petco Park will cure all that ails him. It certainly won't improve the velocity on his woeful fastball. Last night aside, Miami is a team that has generally hit well this year. They're sixth in batting average, so expect the runs to start coming at a higher frequency. They had pounded out double digit hits in six of their nine games previous to yday. 

On the other hand, yesterday marked only the second time all year that the Padres finished a game w/ double digit hits. They had exactly 10, their most in a game since a 4-0 win over the Dodgers all the way back on 4.4, just their second game of the season. The team is batting a collective .215, which is 26th in MLB. They have that same ranking in both runs scored and on base percentage as well. This is of course nothing new as for years now this has been one of the worst offensive clubs in all of baseball. Thus, Ill call for Marlins starter Dan Straily to build off his excellent outing last Sunday when he tossed 5 1/3 scoreless innings against the Mets, which ended up being a 4-2 win. Straily needs to work on his control some (5 BBs last time out), but fortunately the Padres don't draw many walks as a team. 10* Miami

10* San Antonio (8:05 ET): The Spurs actually lost a game to Memphis, getting blown out in Game 3, 105-94 as 3.5-pt favorites. That final score is a little misleading in the sense that the Grizzlies led by as many as 22 in the second half (81-63 after third quarter). That snapped a 10-game playoff losing streak to San Antonio and was also HC David Fizdale's first ever postseason win. But while the price range has remained unchanged for Game 4, I believe that the result will. The Spurs have been an excellent bounce back team all season long, going 16-5 SU off a SU loss w/ the average margin of victory coming by 11.8 points per game. Fizdale's epic post-game rant (after Game 2) did its job, but it will be difficult to match that emotion for a second straight game. Remember that the Grizz are still w/o ace defender Tony Allen. Lay the points.

What was the difference between Games 1 & 2 vs. 3 (besides the venue)? Well, Memphis simply shot the ball a lot better. They were above 50% from the field, a far cry from the pair of sub-40% performances in San Antonio. While they may not shoot as poorly tonight as they did in the first two games, I do expect a sharp decline from Game 3. Remember that the Spurs are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. Memphis is one of the lowest scoring teams in the entire league and actually doesn't even average 100 PPG for the year. They scored only 82 in each of the first two games. Essentially, it was one quarter (the 3rd) that broke Game 3 open for the Grizzlies as they outscored the Spurs by 14. That quarter saw them make 10 of their first 14 shots while San Antonio missed 11 of its first 17. That stretch basically decided the game.

At the other end of the floor, look for the Spurs' Kawhi Leonard to regain his lost touch. After matching his career playoff high w/ 32 pts in Game 1 and then setting a new high w/ 37 in Game 2, he went for only 18 pts in Game 3. Without Allen to defend him, it's simply not likely that Leonard will have too many more "off nights" in this series. Tony Parker averaged 15 PPG in San Antonio, but was scoreless on four shots in Game 3. LaMarcus Aldridge was the only other starter besides Leonard to score in double figures as the entire five was pulled in the fourth quarter. Expect across the board improvement from each of the individual starters here. Meanwhile, Memphis has won only two of nine games in April and regression is likely. I expect Greg Popovich to stress the importance of finishing this series in five games to his players. 10* San Antonio

8* Minnesota (3:05 ET): The higher seeded Wild avoided what would have been an embarrassing sweep by beating St. Louis 2-0 in Game 4 and now get another home game. After losing both Games 1 and 2 here at the Xcel Center, I just can't see them losing here again. This is a team that went 27-12-2 on home ice during the regular season. It's easy to forget now, but Minnesota had the best goal differential in the Western Conference (+58). They were 2nd in goals scored in the league, so scoring only five in the first four games of this series has been a major disappointment. Jake Allen has been ridiculously hot between the pipes for the Blues, turning in a .966 save percentage in the series. But let's not forget the Wild's Devan Dubnyk was a bonafide Vezina candidate much of the year and he's been right behind Allen in terms of both save percentage (.943) and goals against average (1.42). Look for the Wild to extend this series another game.

Minnesota may have finished the regular season second in scoring, but down the stretch, we saw their shooting percentage plummet. In this series, that trend has continued. They've actually outshot the Blues, somewhat dramatically, by about an average of 10 per game. Yet, they're finding the back of the net 3.4% of the time compared to 6.5% for St. Louis. Part of the discrepancy has to do w/ a massive 52-26 edge in shots in Game 1. But even still, the Blues have yet to outshoot the Wild in any individual game in the series. It's not as if St. Louis has been some offensive juggernaut in this series; they have just seven goals

The Blues are 6-3 head to head vs. the Wild this year. But five of the wins have come by one goal margins, two of those in extra time. Though they faltered down the stretch, the Wild were the better team for the balance of the year. If they weren't down 3-1 in the series and facing elimination, there'd likely be no issue with this price whatsoever. One key trend to keep in mind is that St. Louis is just 3-7 SU when leading in a playoff series the L3 seasons. That was a 1-7 SU record coming into this series. 8* Minnesota

10* Toronto (3:05 ET): Needless to say, the Raptors got humiliated in Game 3. They lost 104-77 (were 2-pt underdogs) and the game was never really close as they trailed by 20 after the first quarter and 32 after three. That loss dropped them to a terrible 7-20 ATS in all playoff games the L3 years, including 2-12 ATS in first rounders. DeMar DeRozan was as big a culprit as any Thursday night, going 0 for 8 from the field. That was the worst shooting performance in the playoffs by a player who averaged at least 25 points per game in the regular season, ever. Toronto now trails the lower seeded Bucks 2-1, but as was the case in Game 2, I expect them to bounce back from a SU loss. We saw w/ a play earlier this week (OKC over Houston Gm 2) that teams off a blowout loss are often vastly undervalued the next game. That's the case here.

You'll perhaps recall that PG Kyle Lowry took the brunt of the blame for the Raptors' Game 1 loss at home. He shot 2 for 11 overall, including 0 for 6 from three-point range. In my Game 3 analysis, I wrote that a big game from both DeRozan and Lowry was imperative considering the Raptors are 8-2 SU when both scored 20+ in the same game. This Toronto team, not Cleveland or even Boston, finished the regular season w/ the best net efficiency rating and point differential in the Eastern Conference. That was despite being w/o Lowry for most of the second half. Being held to 83 pts and 77 pts by Milwaukee in this series has been relatively stunning. This is a team that averages 106.2 PPG for the year. 

Fortunately, DeRozan should improve. So if Lowry can keep his act together, the Raptors may again get a good game from both members of its starting backcourt. In Game 2, they combined for 45 points on 50% shooting. Also notable is that the Bucks are just 7-18 ATS the L3 seasons after holding a team to 85 points or less. This was priced as only a 39-win team in the regular season. Remember; Milwaukee is a young team that is not accustomed to playing with any kind of series lead. Ranking only 19th in defensive efficiency is worrisome as well (Toronto is 8th) and the Bucks are also inferior at the offensive end as well (13th vs. 6th). Had the Raptors not shot only 20% in the second half of Game 1, they very well would have won both home games. 10* Toronto

8* Chi Cubs (1:10 ET): While the season is not even one month old, I suspect most casual baseball observers were stunned to see the Reds on top of the Cubs in the NL Central standings coming into this weekend series. As was I. But that placement was rectified w/ the defending World Series Champs coming from behind to win yday, 6-5 in 11 innings. They've now won three straight while Cincy has lost three in a row. Needless to say, you can expect the gap between these teams to only grow as the season wears on and head to head play will have a lot to do w/ that. The Cubs are now 29-10 vs. the Reds since the start of the 2015 season and have taken six of the past seven series. A game where they led by three runs entering the ninth inning was probably the best shot Cincy had at a win in this series and they blew it last night.

Now the Reds must face Jake Arrieta, who is up to his "old tricks" w/ 2.89 ERA and 0.911 WHIP through three starts. Giving up a pair of home runs his last time out cost him against the Pirates, but I don't think there is any reason to be concerned. This is a pitcher who has gone 42-14 over his L67 starts w/ a 2.41 ERA. He has a 21-5 KW ratio this year. Arrieta threw a no-hitter in this ballpark last season and also has a CG, one-hit, shutout to his credit at the Reds' expense. Not only are the Cubs 16-4 their L20 meetings overall with the Reds, they are 16-4 their L20 games here at Great American Ballpark. Remember how these teams were priced coming into the season. The Cubs are the consensus best team in baseball while the Reds were pegged as likely the second worst, ahead of only San Diego. This is almost a no-brainer. 

Just like yday, the Reds will go with a starter making his 2017 debut opposite a Cubs hurler w/ a strong pedigree. Today, it's Cody Reed, who has been strong out of the bullpen so far. But as a starter, Reed really struggled against the Cubs last year, allowing 11 runs in just eight innings of work. He lost both times he faced them. The home run ball continues to plague Reds' pitching against the Cubs. After giving up 42 to them last season, they allowed three yday, including a three-run shot that tied the game in the ninth by Anthony Rizzo. That blown save opportunity was all-too reminiscent of last year's Reds team. The Cubs have won all four times this year when facing a southpaw starter. Expect them to jump all over Reed and the Reds here. 8* Chi Cubs

8* Miami (10:10 ET): A rare time to find Miami as a money line favorite, on the road no less. But given the San Diego is providing the opposition, it's an opportune time to strike. The Padres' 2017 projection was basically the opposite of "rosy," so even a 7-10 record has to be considered a mild surprise. But take that record with the proverbial "grain of salt" as they've actually been outscored by 28 runs, which is the worst margin in all of MLB! They've gotten crushed on numerous occasions (4 losses by 7+ runs) and it's not as if they're scoring much. But they did just take two of three from Arizona here at Petco, thanks to allowing just one run in the pair of victories. I'll call for this madness to end and San Diego to start losing more regularly, starting tonight. 

Miami gets a bit of an edge here in that they had Thursday off. They probably needed it after dropping two of three up in Seattle. I played against them in the opener of that series as they were beaten 6-1. They responded w/ a 5-0 shutout Tuesday, but then lost the rubber match 10-5. Let's remember that they did take three of four from the Mets in the previous series, albeit at home. Given that the offense is third in team batting average (.267), you'd think they would have scored more than 70 runs in 15 games (12th). Don't be surprised though if they cross the plate w/ greater regularity tonight facing embattled Padres starter Andrew Cahill, who has lost both of his starts so far while allowing seven runs in 11 1/3 IP. He's also issued six walks, three in each start.

Countering Cahill will be Adam Conley. The Marlins are 2-0 when he toes the rubber and he's posted a 0.909 WHIP. Both starts were against the Mets and he allowed just five hits in 11 innings of work. The bottom line here is I just don't think San Diego is very good and going against them in this price range seems like a massive steal. 8* Miami

8* Oakland (10:05 ET): The A's took last night's series opener (as +135 underdogs on the ML) and have now won three straight. They won Thursday on the back of a surprisingly strong outing from starter Cesar Valdez (1st big league start in 7 years!) and a three-run HR by Trevor Plauffe in the seventh. Beating James Paxton is quite impressive when you consider the kind of beginning to the season yday's Mariners' starter has had. Tonight, Oakland finds itself favored on the ML, which may surprise some. But as alluded to earlier, this team is playing well. Meanwhile, Seattle is just 1-7 on the road thanks to batting a collective .185. Look for the A's to make it two straight over the Mariners and four in a row overall.

Oakland starter Sean Manaea is coming off one of the stranger outings of 2017 thus far. He threw five no-hit innings last Saturday against Texas, but was charged with two runs (only one earned) and walked five. His team start record is now 0-3 and his ERA, 5.51, but he has a WHIP of 1.041. In his last two starts, Manaea has 16 strikeouts and has allowed only three hits. That's in 10 1/3 innings. While there was the control issue his last time out, when you see that kind of discrepancy between the ERA and WHIP, it's usually a tell-tale sign that the pitcher's fortune is likely to turn around for the better. (I find WHIP to be a far more reliable metric than the somewhat outdated ERA). Opposing hitters are batting just .138 against Manaea so far. He has not lost in three career starts vs. the Mariners, by the way.

Seattle counters w/ Hisashi Iwakuma, who had two good starts to open the year, but was shaky his last time out. Iwakuma lasted only three innings at home vs. Texas and gave up six runs on seven hits. However, the Mariners' bats were able to bail him out in what turned out to be a 7-6 win. Ironically, the team lost those first two starts when he sharper, both by a single run. Oakland's lineup has produced nine runs in each of the last two games, so Iwakuma could be up against it here. The Mariners' bullpen has also been pretty lousy to this point w/ a 5.98 ERA (28th) and 1.48 WHIP (23rd) w/ opponents batting a frightening .280 against them (27th).  8* Oakland

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): The Blue Jays have turned into a complete dumpster fire at this point w/ a league worst 3-12 record that has seen them get outscored by 21 runs. While it's true I took them Wednesday (and they cashed!), they followed that up by losing 4-1 in extra innings yday to Boston, in a getaway day affair. Having to now fly out to the West Coast does them no favors. They fanned an incredible 18 times in yday's day game and while the majority of the team's losses have been by three runs or fewer, I don't see them turning it around here. The Angels are returning home off a disappointing seven-game road swing (went 1-6) and they are the ones who I see turning things around, at least on Friday. 

We have a battle of starters making their respective 2017 debuts here. Mat Latos goes for Toronto in an emergency role as the team has already had to put two starters, J.A. Happ and Aaron Sanchez, to the disabled list. I don't have a ton of confidence here in Latos, who is on his eighth team and was quite fortunate to have a 9-3 team start record w/ the White Sox and Washington, given he also had an ERA of 4.45 and a WHIP of 1.454. Sure, the Angels lineup hasn't been doing much scoring recently, but back in the friendly confines of their home park that should change. In six home games thus far, the Halos are scoring 5.3 rpg while batting a collective .291. Latos will obviously have to deal w/ Mike Trout here. 

Pitching for the home team will be Alex Meyer. His call-up was due to the fact the team is playing 20 games in 20 days and wanted to give the members of its rotation an extra day of rest. The lineup Meyer will face tonight is nowhere near as formidable as Blue Jays' lineups of the past couple seasons. The team is hitting just .215 for the year and has scored more than four runs just one time in the L10 games. Furthermore, this price range should suit Meyer and the Angels well. Not only are they 44-18 the L3 seasons as ML favorite of -125 to -175 at home, but Toronto is 5-20 as a road underdog of +125 to +175.  8* LA Angels

10* Boston (7:35 ET): I've made the decision to "go down w/ the ship" if need be as this will be the fifth straight game playing the Bruins for me. Game 1 turned out great; it was my *10* Game of the Week and they beat Ottawa 2-1. But they've since dropped three straight, all by one goal margins, two in overtime. That has them not only on the brink of elimination, but also 1-7 head to head with the Senators this season (4-13 L3 seasons). To me, Ottawa's head to head mastery of Boston has been confounding to say the least. Not only do the Bruins have - by far - the better goal differential, the Sens are the lone playoff team that was outscored in the regular season. Throw in that the B's are #1 in the league on the penalty kill and in shot differential and needless to say I figured this series would go a different way. Maybe it still can. I'll call for the road team to stay alive here. 

In my previous analysis on this series, I've harped on Boston's shot differential during the regular season. It was the league's best and only the Kings (who admittedly didn't even make the playoffs) were close. But the big stunner in this series is that the Bruins have yet to outshoot Ottawa in any of the individual games. In the two games at home, they were held to just 20 and 22 shots, shockingly low numbers. This is a team that averages 32.8 shots on goal per game. The penalty kill was a perfect 3 for 3 in Game 4, but has allowed three goals in this series. So needless to say, this is NOT the Bruins team I had been expecting. Injuries along the blue line have definitely taken a toll. But, in my estimation (and the oddsmakers), they are still the better team here. 

Ottawa has a losing record this season following a shutout win and when on a win streak of at least three games, so this may be a "tipping point" of sorts for them. Again, two of the wins in this series came in overtime and Game 4 was a 1-0 game. Boston, meanwhile, is 5-2 this year when on a three-game losing streak. Senators' goalie Craig Anderson has come up big, but as mentioned earlier, he's also faced fewer shots than expected. It is telling that the Bruins have been favored on the ML in every game in this series. Like I said, I'll stick to my belief that they are the better overall team and that they're "due" to break through against Ottawa. 10* Boston

10* Boston (7:05 ET): Coming into the playoffs, many questioned the validity of the Celtics as the East's #1 seed. Certainly, they were not the favorite (Cleveland is). Nor did they finish the regular season with the best point differential or net efficiency rating (Toronto did). But I don't think anybody expected them to drop both games at home to the mediocre Bulls. The only way I can explain what has transpired so far in this series is that the 8-seed has a decided edge in rebounding and has exploited it. In the regular season, Chicago ranked 4th in rebound rate while Boston was 27th. In the two games so far, the Bulls are +22 on the boards, although Game 2 was close to even. Obviously, the passing of Isaiah Thomas' sister has had an effect on the Celtics' best player, but he did have 33 pts in Game 1 and the team still lost. With the series now moving to the Windy City, I think people are going to be quick to write off the Celtics, but that's a mistake. Take the points.

With Chicago winning both games in Boston, a shift from the oddsmakers was predictable, but I'm not yet convinced the Bulls should be favored. As I said earlier, this was a decidedly mediocre team in the regular season. They barely outscored their opponents over the course of the 82 games. They were only priced as a 36-win team, so they slightly overachieved, and when favored they actually didn't perform all that well. Not only did they go 15-21 ATS, but they were just 19-17 straight up. They were also 28th in true shooting and 30th (last) in effective field goal percentage, so this is a bad offensive team. But they shot 51.1% from the floor in Game 2. I'm as shocked as any that they've averaged 108.5 points the first two games. The likes of Paul Zipser and Bobby Portis have made unlikely contributions thus far.

Changes are likely in the Celtics lineup for Game 3, but HC Brad Stevens in being coy. One thing we do know is that Boston is 8-3 SU/ATS this season following a double digit loss. This team posted a winning road record in the regular season and it's their offense that I expect to come alive tonight in the United Center. Note Chicago only shoots 43.8% from the floor at home. Boston averages a healthy 106.5 PPG on the road and I expect FT shooting to improve from the first two games. This is a team that shoots over 80% from the charity stripe. A "must win" for the Celtics and I have them getting the job done. 10* Boston

8* Edmonton (10:35 ET): Up 2-1 in the series, the Oilers were absolutely humiliated in Game 4. I know because I played against them. They lost 7-0 down in San Jose and now things are all "squared away." But the scene shifts back to Edmonton and w/ the public likely to be "off them," I'm siding with the home team. Not just for the sake of being a contrarian mind you, but the Sharks are one of just five playoff teams to have a losing road record. Also, remember that the Oilers won both Games 2 and 3 in shutout fashion. They also led Game 1, 2-0, before falling in overtime. So while Game 4 was obviously a very bad experience, it's just one game, and it's probably more pertinent that the Oilers were the better team for most of the first three games. I expect a raucous crowd tonight as well.

San Jose scored four power play goals in Game 4, a stunning reversal from the first three games where they were an awful 1 for 14 w/ the man advantage. In fact, Edmonton actually scored more goals (2) when San Jose was on the power play than the Sharks did (both goals scored in Game 2 were short-handed). It is a little worrisome that the Oilers have scored just one even strength goal in the last 11 periods of play, but while young, this is a talented offensive group. They were 8th in the league in scoring during the regular season and seeing as Connor McDavid has been held w/o a point the L2 games, I'm banking on him being the star of the night. Incredibly, Tuesday marked just the fourth time all season that the Sharks posted a shutout win. 

The Oilers are also 14-7 SU this year after allowing 4+ goals the previous game. More concerning than Cam Talbot's performance in Game 4 is the fact that Martin Jones' save percentage on the road this year is only .909. Edmonton was also 8th in the league in goals allowed this season. San Jose was just 19th in goals scored and their power play was ranked lower (25th) than all other playoff teams. Throw in the fact that Edmonton was the much better team down the stretch and I see them bouncing back w/ a big win tonight in Game 5. 8* Edmonton

10* Over Spurs/Grizzlies (9:35 ET): This series has the look of a possible sweep as the Spurs have taken the first two games by margins of 29 and 14 points. But now the scene shifts to Memphis and if there's one game you'd figure the Grizzlies win, it would be this one. I'm not willing to take that change however as I was burned by them in Game 2 (they did cut the lead to five in the fourth quarter). But I am willing to bank on the fact we'll start to see more scoring, not just from Memphis, but San Antonio as well. The Grizzlies have shot the ball terribly the first two games and as a result the O/U line has plummeted for Game 3. I feel the time is ideal to go w/ the Over, a bet I cashed in Game 1.

Now we are dealing with two of the top teams in defensive efficiency here. San Antonio, in fact, finished the regular season ranked #1. But Memphis is hurting - figuratively and literally - without Tony Allen. His absence was duly noted in my Game 1 Over play and sure enough the Spurs scored 111 points on 53.2% shooting w/ Kawhi Leonard leading the way w/ 32 pts. Leonard then set a new career-high w/ 37 pts in Game 2. He's 28 of 28 from the free throw line in two games. That's what happens w/ Allen being out. Overall, San Antonio didn't shoot quite as well in Game 2 (were 31 of 32 from the FT line!), but they're still 19 of 42 from three-point range in the series and that certainly is a bad sign here for Memphis. Playing w/ exactly two days of rest this season, the Spurs are 8-3-1 Over. 

Thus the key for this play is probably Memphis shooting better than they have. Certainly, they can't shoot any worse than they did in the first two games (38% overall). They are 14 of 47 from three-point range. Fortunately, due to the epic post-game rant from HC David Fizdale, they are very likely to get more free throw attempts tonight. (That's just the way the NBA playoffs work). When they get there, expect them to take advantage as they're 26 of 32 from the charity stripe in this series and 78.6% there for the year at home. Even with Grizzlies' home games being among the lowest scoring in the league, the average total PPG (196.3) still topples tonight's O/U line. So too do San Antonio road games (203.8 PPG). Believe it or not, but Tuesday was just the 8th time this season that the Spurs held an opponent below 85 pts. They are 5-2 Over the next game. They are also 12-6 Over if holding the opponent below 90 pts their last time out. 10* Over Spurs/Grizzlies

10* Kansas City (8:05 ET): Regression can be so unkind and the Texas Rangers are finding that out right now. Last year's AL West Champs may have won 95 games, but they outscored opponents by a measley EIGHT runs over the course of the season. How does that even happen, you ask? A historic 36-11 record in one-run games (ALL-TIME best in MLB history!) was the culprit there. This year's team has started 5-10 and not surprising (to me) is that they are 0-4 in one-run affairs. You see, the majority of teams will finish at or around .500 in one-run games over the course of a season. Any outlier is considered "lucky" or "unlucky" depending on your vantage point. I look for the Rangers to be an unlucky team in 2017 and the hard times should continue tonight w/ a visit from Danny Duffy and Kansas City. 

It certainly wasn't a case of "bad luck" Wednesday as the Rangers were simply rocked by Oakland, 9-1. Skipper Jeff Bannister was ejected and the team has now dropped five of six, falling into last place in the AL West. Now they are at least back home this weekend following a nine-game road trip out West. But not having a day off in between is a killer in my view. So is facing Danny Duffy, who is off to a terrific start w/ a 1.80 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in three outings, all of them quality. Last time out, Duffy was fantastic as he allowed just one run and three hits in seven innings of work against the Angels (KC won 7-1). The Royals' starting rotation comes into this series sporting the top ERA in the entire American League and has allowed two runs or fewer in eight of the past nine games! Meanwhile, the Texas lineup is scuffling right now as they've been held to two runs or less in four of the last six games and they had just three hits each of the last two days agianst Oakland.

The Royals were just 1-6 against the Rangers last year, so they'll be out for revenge. They were swept in their lone visit to Arlington. One pitcher not responsible for that record is Andrew Cashner, tonight's starter for Texas. Cashner was signed in the offseason and his 1st start of '17 wasn't all too promising as he allowed four runs in 5 1/3 innings and posted a negative KW rate. Duffy is 14-3 since the start of last season, so it's a significant edge for KC on the mound tonight, not that they need it. 10* Kansas City

8* Toronto (8:05 ET): I'm going w/ the Raptors, on the road, for Game 3. They evened this series up at 1-1 w/ a 106-100 win in Game 2 Tuesday. However, they failed to cover (closed as 8-pt favorites), dropping them to 2-11 ATS in first round playoff games the L3 years. But, they did lead by double digits early in the fourth quarter before letting the Bucks back in the game. Kyle Lowry was a lot better than he was in Game 1, shooting 50% overall, and the team went from making just five three-pointers in Game 1 to 14 in Game 2. Even after factoring in the change in home court, it certainly seems to appear as if there's some value here on Toronto, who is now an underdog for just the second time in seven meetings this year vs. Milwaukee. Take the points.

After winning and covering this season's first three head to head meetings w/ the Bucks, Toronto has failed to cover three in a row. But as I just stated, only once previous to tonight have they been an underdog to Milwaukee. While they did lose that game, 101-94 (despite outshooting the Bucks), I still feel the oddsmakers have overadjusted here. Toronto went 12-7 ATS in the regular season as a road dog and overall they've been favored in 15 of their last 18 games. The key tonight is not just Lowry, but DeMar DeRozan as well. Game 2 marked the 10th time that both members of the Raptors' starting backcourt scored 20+ points. The team has gone 8-2 SU in those games. 

Milwaukee was not great as a home favorite during the regular season, going only 18-11 SU and 12-17 ATS. Obviously, the pointspread is likely irrelevant here as the SU winner is almost assured of covering the spread. But still, that SU record isn't exactly great either. Overall, the Bucks were favored just 39 times during the regular season, so you can actually say they overachieved. Down the stretch, they went 17-10 SU, but were actually outscored on a per possession/game basis. Ranking only 19th in defensive efficiency is worrisome as well (Toronto is 8th) and the Bucks are also inferior at the offensive end as well (13th vs. 6th). The Raptors are simply the better team here and were it not for a dreadful second-half shooting performance in Game 1 (20%!), then they'd likely already be up 2-0. 8* Toronto

8* Over Blackhawks/Predators (8:05 ET): This is certainly not the position that top-seeded Chicago thought they'd be in going into Game 4. Down 0-3 in the series, they're in danger of being swept right out of the playoffs. Even worse, they've now lost seven straight overall. They've been shut out three times during that span, a shocking development for a club that ranked 9th in the league in scoring. Two of those shutouts have come at the hands of the Preds (Games 1 and 2 at home!). While they did manage to score twice in Game 3, it was not enough as they fell in overtime. Considering goaltender Corey Crawford faced 49 shots, they're lucky he allowed only three goals. Only one of Chicago's last eight games has gone Over, but I believe this one will. 

Similarly, the Under is 7-1-3 in Nashville's last 11 games. But the last two of this series have both pushed w/ exactly five total goals scored. I believe that tonight is the night that we finally see the teams cross that threshold. Looking back through all the regular season matchups, none of the five between these two sides saw fewer than five total goals scored. Now with eight head to head meetings under their belt, that number is just one (Game 1). As mentioned earlier in the analysis, Nashville put a ton of shots on goal in Game 3. They've now scored eight goals in the last two games and it may only be a matter of time before Blackhawks' goalie Corey Crawford cracks. Don't forget Chicago's penalty kill only ranked 24th in the league this year, lowest among all playoff teams. Nashville has scored only one PP goal in this series on just five chances. 

If the 'Hawks can hang their hat on something coming into tonight's must-win affair, it is the fact that the Preds are only 2-7 SU this season when on a win streak of three or more games. But, then again, Chicago is on its longest losing streak of the season. I've got to think they'll start scoring more as they should play a wide open style here. They blew a 2-0 third period lead Tuesday. While Nashville has gotten a goal from every line in this series, the Blackhawks' depth (thought to be a strength coming into the series) has been a non-factor. Something worth noting is that Chicago is 5-1 Over when trailing in a playoff series. 8* Over Blackhawks/Predators

8* Montreal (7:05 ET): I'm switching course here in Game 5 as the series shifts back to Ville-Marie. I was on the Rangers in Game 4 and they thankfully came through, winning 2-1, and thus ending an embarrassing six-game home playoff losing streak. The Rangers very nearly took BOTH games here in Montreal, but allowed a game-tying goal w/ 18 seconds remaining in regulation in Game 2 and lost in overtime. The Habs took the series lead and home ice advantage back w/ a 3-1 win in Game 3 and now just have to hold serve here at the Bell Centre in order to advance (Game 7, if necessary, would be played here). I realize that the Rangers had the league's best road record during the regular season, but I believe the Habs are a solid value on the ML.

Though limited to just 24 shots total in Game 4 (only 12 in 2nd & 3rd periods combined!), Montreal has still outshot the Rangers for the series. In fact, Game 4 was the first time that New York had the edge in shots on goal. Game 2, where the Canadiens outshot the Rangers 58-38, certainly skews things. But in a series where both goaltenders have been on point, having the edge in shots can be critical. For the year, the Rangers have been outshot. Meanwhile, Montreal has outshot its opponents.  Neither power play has done much, but both goals scored w/ the man advantage have come from the Montreal side (Game 3). While the Rangers had the league's best reg season road record, the Habs were no slouch at home either, going 24-12-5. The Rangers are just 2-6 when tied in a playoff series the L3 years and the Habs are 13-9 SU this year after being held to one goal or less the previous game.

The goaltending matchup of Lundqvist vs. Price figured to grab the headlines in this series and thus far it has not disappointed. Both have allowed just eight goals over the four games. But, at home, I give the slight edge to Price. Not just because he's likely to face fewer shots, but also because he sports a .930 save percentage for the year on home ice. On the road, Lundqvist' save percentage is a slightly worse .924. While the Rangers were 12th during the regular season in goals allowed, Montreal was 4th. Also, remember that the Habs are 6-2 SU head to head w/ the Rangers this year. They've had their number. 8* Montreal

10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): I came into this series thinking that OKC didn't have much of a chance seeing that I've labeled them as "overrated" much of this year. But even I was taken aback at how thoroughly they were dominated by the Rockets in a 118-87 Game 1 loss. Thus, I anticipate it will an "abandon ship" mentality here from the majority of bettors. But I'll choose to "buy low" as I expect a bounce back tonight in Game 2.  Remember that last year saw the Thunder get crushed in a Game 1 matchup vs. the Spurs (124-92) and they came back to not only win Game 2, but the entire series. There's no Kevin Durant obviously for this go-around and I'm not convinced OKC can come back to win this series. But they'll at least cover tonight. Take the points. 

This series very much centers around the individual battle between Houston's James Harden and OKC's Russell Westbrook, who are thought to be the two leading MVP candidates. In the four regular season head to head matchups, Westbrook outscored Harden by about 16 PPG. But, scoring was 37-22 in favor of Harden in Game 1. Obviously, if Westbrook only scores 22 again, the Thunder have little chance. But I anticipate his scoring will go up tonight. He probably can't shoot any worse than he did Sunday night when he went 6 of 23 from the field, including 3 of 11 from three-point range. Patrick Beverley gave Westbrook trouble, but can he do it again? I should point out that the series opener was a five-point game going into halftime. Things really fell apart for OKC in the fourth quarter, leading to a somewhat misleading final score.

On the defensive end, the Thunder did a good job limiting the Rockets on three-pointers. Houston was just 10 of 33 from behind the arc in Game 1, so the fact they still won by 31 is somewhat shocking. The key was 62 points in the paint, half of them coming on second-chance opportunities. Here is where the big difference should come for Game 2. OKC was actually the top rebounding team in the league during the regular season, so I don't anticipate Houston enjoying that same kind of edge inside again. Overall, the Thunder rate as the better defensive team here (10th in efficiency vs. 17th). Beverley scoring 21 pts again shouldn't happen as defending Westbrook is likely to wear on him. 10* Oklahoma City

8* Boston (7:35 ET): What would have been a monumental comeback was all for naught as alas the Bruins ended up losing 4-3 in overtime to the Senators in Game 3. They initially trailed 3-0 in the second period, before rallying to tie the game going into the third. Combined w/ the fact that they blew a 3-1 lead in Game 2, Boston has to be very frustrated right now. Most shocking to me is that the team that enjoyed the largest shot differential per game in the regular season has been outshot here by Ottawa for the series (32-20 in Gm 3). The Bruins are now just 1-6 head to head w/ Ottawa this season (0-4 reg season), but I'll still harp on the fact that all the key metrics indicate they are the better overall team. I can't see them dropping B2B games here at home. 

In additon to being outshot, Boston has also uncharacteristically given up three power play goals in the last two games. This was the top ranked penalty killing unit in the entire league during the regular season (85.7 percent). So, given the head to head results, is it correct to say that Ottawa has some sort of "magic elixir" to beat Boston? Hardly. Again, both Senators wins in this series have come in overtime. Their last four wins over the Bruins have all been of the one-goal variety, three of them decided in extra time. So, I'd hardly dub this "head to head domination." Again, something I've pointed out in past analysis is that Ottawa is the ONLY team to make the playoffs that was outscored during the regular season. Conversely, the Bruins had a reg season goal differential of +22. Like I said earlier, I believe them to be the better team here (as do the oddsmakers, clearly).

In step w/ their negative goal differential, Ottawa was just 22nd in the league in goals scored during the regular season. So the fact that they have eight goals in the last two games is yet another thing that has caught me off guard. Bruins' goalie Tuukka Rask needs to be a little sharper and I believe he will. Also, where's the huge edge on special teams for Boston? In addition to having the top ranked PK unit, they were 7th on the power play in the regular season. Ottawa was bottom 10 in both categories. 8* Boston

8* Under Phillies/Mets (7:10 ET): We have two pitchers with atrocious ERA/WHIPs, so naturally it would be time to strike w/ an Under play. If this sounds "too contrarian" for you, note that Phillies starter Vince Velasquez is far better than he's looked so far in 2017. He was the real bright spot of the Philly rotation last year and has 17 strikeouts in just nine innings of work this year. But some control issues and bad luck have hurt him so far. Consider he's allowed 9 runs on just 10 hits. Seven walks certainly haven't helped his cause, but I expect that issue to be ironed out. As for Mets' starter Robert Gsellman, he somehow gave up eight runs (career-high) on just five hits his last time out. So he should pitch better here as well. Take the Under.

The Mets haven't won since that last start by Gsellman, which was a 9-8 victory over the Marlins in 16 innings. They've since dropped four in a row scoring only 10 total runs in the process. They had only four hits last night and have had five or less in three straight games. Jose Reyes has become an absolute disaster at this point. His slash line is an unconscionable .100/.182./.140. In most instances, I'd call for some progression to the mean, but there's just no sign of it here. His error in the field last night is also what cost the Mets the game. They were leading 2-1 going into the 8th frame when Reyes misjudged an easy pop fly, paving the way for the Phils to tie the game up and send it into extra innings.

The fact that last night's game went Over (7.5) is misleading. It should have caught your eye that it was a 2-1 game heading into the eighth inning. Well, even with Reyes' costly error, the final score was misleading. Philadelphia scored four times in the top of the 10th. After just three total runs were scored over seven innings, one could certainly argue that the next five (all from the Phillies) never should have happened. With the Mets not hitting right now, this one shapes up as a low scoring affair. Before breaking through in the top of the 10th last night, Philly had not scored more than four runs in a game since 4.8. Of their 62 runs scored this year, 17 came in one outlier of a game. That's just 45 runs scored in the other 12. They were held to 11 runs total when they were swept by the Mets last week. 8* Under Phillies/Mets

8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): I'm back to backing the Rays after they came through as my 10* Game of the Week in last night's series opener. That was as much a play AGAINST Tigers' starter Michael Fulmer as anything else, but it's now certainly worth noting that the Rays are 6-2 this year at Tropicana Field. Tonight, this is most definitely a play ON TB starter Chris Archer, who is off to a 3-0 start to 2017. I've played him twice and in my analysis for the season opener, I predicted a massive bounce back from him this season. Last year, he finished dead last among starters in net units at the betting window, but that was in no way indicative of his overall skill set. Look for Archer and the Rays to make it two straight over the Tigers tonight.

We're not getting as good a price on the Rays as we did last night, but that's to be expected w/ Archer on the bump. He already is sporting a 3-0 TSR w/ a 2.21 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Last time out, he was not at his best (lasted only 5 2/3 innings), but still held the Red Sox to just one run in Boston and the Rays won as underdogs (I had them!). He is now the first Rays' starter since '13 to open a season w/ three starts of allowing two runs or fewer. He has a 3.12 ERA vs. the Tigers in six career starts. Behind him is a bullpen that's been a lot better at home, reflecting the overall fate of the team this year. In what is already shaping up as a competitive AL East, TB cannot afford to fall too far back. But remember, I've identified them as one of the AL's most improved teams, if for no other reason then they were very lucky last year (MLB-worst 13-26 in one run games). 

Going into yesterday, Detroit was riding high after taking two of three over the weekend in Cleveland. They are 4-0 off a loss this year, but I'm not a buyer on this 8-5 start of theirs. They've actually now been outscored by 13 runs or an average of one per game. Tampa Bay might only be 7-8, but they're dead even in terms of runs scored vs. allowed. Tonight's starter for the Tigers is Jordan Zimmerman and he did not look good his last time out vs. Minnesota. He gave up five runs in 4 2/3 IP and also walked five batters. This is Zim's first road start of 2017 and I highly doubt he'll be able to match Archer. Last night also marked Detroit's worst offensive showing of the season so far. 8* Tampa Bay

9* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Blue Jays nightmare season continued last night w/ an 8-7 home loss to the division rival Red Sox. As if a now 2-11 start (league worst) wasn't already bad enough, making matters more frustrating was the fact they had Boston in an advantageous spot Tuesday. The Red Sox had to play Monday (annual Patriot's Day game vs. Rays) while Toronto was off. Furthermore, the Jays raced out to an early 2-0 lead yday and had Marcus Stroman on the hill. But the de facto Toronto ace could not hold the lead and ended up w/ his shortest outing of 2017 (3 2/3 innings) after giving up six runs and 11 hits. The Jays almost pulled off a miracle rally in the ninth, turning an 8-4 deficit into 8-7, but alas, they could not get that one final run.

I refuse to believe Toronto is this bad. Last night was already their fifth one-run loss of 2017. Only two of their 11 losses have been by more than two runs. Eventually, you would have to think that "bad luck" evens out. This has been one of the top offenses in the game the past several seasons, but this year the lineup is only producing to the tune of 3.2 runs per game and a collective .222 batting average. That's not good. But it's still early and only a matter of time before the runs come. Now I realize there should be some trepidation w/ tonight's starter Francisco Liriano. But after a disastrous first start of 2017, he was actually outstanding last Thursday vs. Baltimore, giving up just two runs and five hits in 6 2/3 IP. He finished w/ a 10-2 KW ratio, but sadly was a hard luck loser as the Jays fell 2-1.

The pitcher I'd be more concerned with here is actually Boston's Rick Porcello, last year's Cy Young winner who I'm on the record as saying is due for some major regression in 2017. It was a minor miracle that Porcello was a 22-game winner a year ago (25-9 TSR). He opened 2-0 this year, but after being fortunate to come out ahead against Detroit in his second start (allowed four runs and 11 hits), I played against him his last time out and won big. Porcello allowed eight runs on eight hits, four of them home runs, in a 10-5 home loss to Tampa Bay as -120 ML favorites. While he was 13-1 at Fenway last season (15-1 TSR), his road record was just 9-4 (10-8 TSR). C'mon Toronto! 9* Toronto

full analysis soon

10* San Jose (10:05 ET): This is the only Western Conference series where both teams have won a game. With the Blues, Predators and Ducks all owning 3-0 leads in their respective series, the bracket is about to be turned upside down. But, obviously, the Sharks can ill-afford to think about any of that given their own current position. They're down 2 games to 1 to the Oilers after conceding the home ice advantage back w/ a 1-0 loss in Game 3 here at home. The Sharks won Game 1 up in Edmonton, 3-2 in overtime, but have since been shockingly shut out in B2B defeats. The lack of offense is made even more disappointing by the fact they've held the Oilers to an average of just 25.7 shots per game for the series. A desperate team, expect the Sharks to even the series up here at home tonight. 

Limiting shots was a key component to San Jose ranking 4th in the league in goals allowed during the regular season. Only the Kings and Bruins allowed fewer shots per game than did the Sharks (27.7). The fact that they're below that strong average and still down in the series has to be frustrating. Now the first two games both saw lopsided margins in terms of shots on goal w/ San Jose owning 44-19 edge in Game 1 and Edmonton 36-16 in Game 2. Things were virtually even (23-22 in favor of the Sharks in Game 3). Given the defensive nature of that game, one would have thought it would favor the Sharks. But, alas, they could not break through against Cam Talbot. The lone goal was scored off a costly San Jose turnover. The Sharks being 1 for 14 on the power play has also hurt, especially w/ them giving up the two short-handed goals in Game 2.

One Shark I'm not concerned about is goaltender Martin Jones, who has stopped 72 of 77 shots in the series and allowed only one even strength goal over the last eight periods! For Edmonton, I think Talbot's play is due to level off. He cannot possibly maintain his current .964 save percentage. Also, San Jose got Joe Thorton back for Game 3 and that should be huge moving forward.  The Oilers have won three straight times at the Shark Tank going back to the regular season and it's simply "time" for them to lose. 10* San Jose

8* Boston (8:05 ET): Every home team playing on Tuesday lost Game 1 outright. The Celtics are the top seed in the Eastern Conference but a 106-102 loss to the pedestrian Bulls will do nothing to dispel the notion that they are somewhat fortunate to own that distinction. Of course, a major storyline heading into this series is the death of Isaiah Thomas' sister. Thomas, his team's best player, performed admirably in Game 1 (33 points on 10 of 18 shooting) but clearly had to be affected by the obviously horrible situation. For the first 44 minutes of the game, neither side had more than a two possession lead. So it's not as if Boston played all that poorly. They were outrebounded (53-36) and their bench outscored (35-22). But I don't expect those kind of discrepancies here plus Chicago's Jimmy Butler isn't likely to score 23 pts in the second half again. Lay the points.

The Bulls were thought to have the edge in rebounding coming into this series as they ranked 4th in rebound rate during the regular season while the Celtics were 27th. But cleaning up the defensive glass is imperative here for Boston considering how poorly Chicago tends to shoot the ball. In the regular season, the Bulls ranked dead last in the league in effective field goal percentage and were 28th in true shooting percentage. It's not like they shot the ball that well in Game 1. They were just 42.9% overall including 8 of 25 from three-point range. Going 20 of 23 at the line was key as were all 35 pts from the reserves. The performance of Bobby Portis was particularly preposterous as he had 19 points, nine rebounds and two blocked shots. Portis averaged only 6.8 points and 4.5 rebounds in the regular season. 

So besides rebound better and hope the Bulls bench regresses, what else can the Celtics hope for here? Well, they should shoot better as a whole. They averaged 109.4 PPG at home during the regular season on 45.5% shooting. They were slightly below both numbers in Game 1. Also, I should point out that Chicago is just 17-25 SU on the road. They had gone 0-2 SU/ATS in their two reg season visits to Boston, including a 20-point loss last month. As much as I feel the Celtics are a weak #1 seed (I have them rated third in the conference behind Toronto and Cleveland), it's not like the Bulls are a great team. The home team should bounce back in this one as teams seeded 1-3 in the first round of the playoffs are 50-6 SU, 37-17-2 ATS if they lost Game 1 outright. 8* Boston

10* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): I like what I'm seeing here w/ some overnight steam on the home team. The Rays come into this three-game set at just 6-8 on the year. They've dropped six of seven overall, including three straight in Boston over the weekend. Despite outhitting the Red Sox on Patriot's Day Monday (11-9), they fell short on the scoreboard, 4-3. It was a game that saw just one run scored over the final seven innings, ironically by the Rays. But I expect this club to starting playing better moving forward, especially now that they're back at Tropicana Field. The entirety of the 1-6 stretch came on the road. So that means they're a strong 5-2 at home. Detroit is 8-4 and off a win Sunday (at Cleveland), but has actually been outscored by nine runs so far. 

While I expect improvement from the Rays, I have serious doubts as to the Tigers ability to remain on top of the AL Central. Today's starter Michael Fulmer is one player in particular that I expect to regress. Last year's AL Rookie of the Year posted a net gain of 13.2 units at the betting window (7th best), but did so in spite of a somewhat pedestrian numbers. The team also went 8-0 in games where Fulmer did NOT factor into the decision. He has a 2-0 TSR so far in 2017, which surprises me as does the fact his ERA/WHIP have actually improved. But both starts also came at home. Five of his seven losses LY took place on the road. After surprisingly taking two of three in Cleveland over the weekend, this series should be a bit of a letdown for the Tigers. 

Interestingly, this will be only the 2nd night game for Detroit so far. Them winning in spite of a terrible bullpen (28th in ERA) has been particularly curious. Note all eight Tigers wins this year have been by three runs or less. Tampa Bay infamously had the worst record in MLB last year when it came to one-run games, but I firmly believe that this year will be different simply due to that record being something that typically regresses/progresses to the mean. The Rays' own bullpen performance was much better at home than it's been on the road thus far, which ties into the overall results. Yesterday, Rays' hitters were just 3 for 15 w/ RISP. Starter Matt Andriese actually pitched well his last time out, giving up just one run in six innings to the Yankees. 10* Tampa Bay

full analysis soon

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): So, as alluded to in the play on the Over for this game, I'm going to be laying the points w/ the Raptors here. Incredibly, Game 1 marked the EIGHTH conseuctive playoff series that Toronto dropped Game 1. Twice last year, they were able to rally back after doing so, ousting Indiana and Miami. I feel it will be a similar "song and verse" in this series. Much of my confidence comes from the likelihood that Toronto's offense, Kyle Lowry in particular, will perform much better tonight than Saturday. For the record, after losing Game 1 of their first round series vs. Indiana LY, the Raptors came back to not only win, but also cover the spread in Game 2. Same thing this year. Lay the points.

Toronto actually led Game 1 at the half, 51-46. But the wheels came off after halftime w/ them scoring only 32 total points on 7 of 35 shooting! They finished the game at only 36% from the field. Lowry was the biggest offender, going 2 for 11 (no FT attempts!) including 0 for 6 from three-point range. As a team, they shot 5 of 23 from behind the arc. I expect across the board improvement here in Game 2. Like I mentioned in the Over writeup, this is a team that averages 110.2 PPG at home for the year. They shoot 47.2% overall from the floor including 37% from three-point range. 

The Bucks are 6-18 ATS the L3 seasons after allowing 85 pts or less the last three seasons. Though I like this game to go Over, it is worth noting Milwaukee has failed to top 100 points in six consecutive games. Interesting is that even though the Bucks went 17-10 SU down the stretch, they were outscored during that time. This is a team w/ a losing road record and considering they've already "stolen" home court advantage for the series, the likelihood of a letdown here is strong. 8* Toronto

10* NY Rangers (7:05 ET): After taking Game 1 of this best of seven series, the Rangers have given back the home ice advantage to Montreal w/ B2B losses. The first, on the road, came in overtime after allowing the game-tying goal w/ just 18 seconds remaining in regulation. Just think how different this series would be perceived had the Blueshirts taken both games in Montreal. Game 3 was a much poorer effort as they fell behind 3-0 at home, their sixth consecutive playoff loss here in MSG. They're also now just 1-6 SU head to head vs. the Habs this season. Despite that and being badly outshot those L2 games, I believe it's "high time" that the home losing streak comes to an end. These two teams were basically even in terms of points in the regular season, so the fact the Habs have had the Rangers number is particularly confounding. 

Incredibly, the Rangers have been outscored 21-4 in those six straight home losses. They've been held to two goals or fewer in nine straight home games. Thus, there's some real pressure on goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, who did make 54 saves in Game 2. But that still wasn't enough. Considering the Rangers were outshot in that game 58-38, however, it was a minor miracle that they were even in position to win. The bigger issue from Game 3 was putting only 21 shots on goal. Early in the season, this was a dominant offense, one that could get plenty of scoring from any of the top four lines. So can they break through against Carey Price? Considering they scored five times on him in the first two games, I'd answer that question in the affirmative.

Remember that not only did Lundqvist turn in a 54-save effort in Game 2, he also shut the Habs out in Game 1. The Rangers are curiously just a .500 team at home this season, so their struggles aren't necessarily limited to the postseason here at MSG. But I can't see them dropping two in a row on home ice. A real key trend in handicapping this contest is the fact New York is 11-2 SU this season after scoring 1 goal or less in the previous game. 10* NY Rangers

10* Seattle (10:10 ET): Both of these teams come into this series riding three-game win streaks. Seattle just swept Texas while Miami took the final three of a four-game set from the Mets. Key for the Marlins, however, is that last series was at home. This will be their first venture into Safeco Field since 2008. While they gain the designated hitter, I'm not going to expect much. Like most National League teams do, the Marlins have struggled in Interleague Play, going just 13-27 the last two seasons. Miami to Seattle, I believe, is the longest possible road trip in all of MLB. So, with the Mariners having just swept a superior foe (compared to Miami) over the weekend, I see no reason why we shouldn't throw our endorsement behind them here in tonight's series opener.

Miami obviously came into 2017 with a giant void in the starting rotation due to the tragic death of Jose Fernandez. But shockingly they've allowed the third fewest runs in the NL, trailing only the Dodgers and Cubs. I expect that side of the ledger to start going up, however. Tom Koehler will be the one to start on the bump tonight and while his ERA looks nice, it's a tad bit misleading. His WHIP paints a better picture of his skill set as control issues have plagued him dating back to last season. He's walked five in 11 IP so far this year and also given up three home runs. Going back to the end of 2016, Koehler has walked multiple batters in 10 consecutive starts. Seattle hitters did a pretty decent job of drawing free passes in the Texas series (11 in three games), so pay attention to this aspect of the game.

Both teams are off walk-off wins on Sunday. In fact, all three of Miami's wins against the Mets came on rallies in the eighth inning or later, two of them a byproduct of the final at-bat. Seattle rallied back from a 6-1 deficit to shock Texas yday as all the Rangers' luck from 2016 has predictably gone by the wayside. I like what I've seen from this Mariners lineup over the past seven days as they have averaged a healthy 5.7 rpg over that time frame. That should be more than enough for southpaw Ariel Miranda tonight. Miranda has had to face Houston twice so far, so this is a drop in class. Pay no mind to the hullaballoo surrounding Ichiro Suzuki's return to the Pacifc Northwest as the former batting champ is 1 for 21 for Miami so far and by playing here will be somewhat of a liability in the lineup. Miami is just 14-22 off three or more wins the L2 seasons. 10* Seattle

10* Calgary (10:35 ET): Thanks to a proverbial "friendly bounce," Anaheim is up 2-0 in this best of seven series, which now shifts to Alberta. Game 2 was decided in the final five minutes of regulation, on a Ducks' power play, when a Ryan Getzlaf pass wound up bouncing off a the skate of Flames' defensemen Lance Bouma and into the net. That was an absolutely brutal loss for Calgary, which has now lost 29 straight regular season matchups in Anaheim. Yes, you read that correctly. Falling down two goals in the first period did them no favors Saturday, but the Flames were able to rally back and really dominated the second period of play. After tying the game, they threatened to take the lead on numerous occasions. They outshot Anaheim for the game, 37-29.

The importance of the series now moving to Calgary really cannot be understated. Not only because of the Flames' inability to win in Anaheim, but also due to the fact that the Ducks enter the postseason as one of only five teams w/ losing road records. Toronto, Pittsburgh, Nashville and San Jose are the others. Note two of those teams are Wild Cards, like Calgary. The Ducks were tied w/ Nashville, however, for the most road losses w/ 24. This will actually be Calgary's first home game since 4.2 when they lost to Anaheim, 4-3. They're 0-4 vs. the Ducks in April and have revenge for five straight losses to them overall. The Flames key is they average nearly a full goal more per game at home than they do on the road. Their shooting percentage rises to 10.8% here in the Saddledome.

The Flames have been close in the series, losing each of the first two games by just one goal. The move home should certainly have a positive impact on goaltender Brian Elliott, who has a .922 save percentage here and a 15-7 SU record. Meanwhile, Anaheim's John Gibson's road record is only 8-15 SU. While Calgary would not be officially eliminated w/ a loss here, they would be - for all intents and purposes - done. It's been done before, but teams just don't come back from an 0-3 series deficit very often. Therefore, I expect the Flames' best tonight as they feel they should have won Game 2 were in not for an errant bounce. They're eventually due to beat Anaheim, right? 10* Calgary

10* Memphis (9:35 ET): The Grizzlies were absolutely hammered in Game 1. I had the Over, a play which cashed, but it was no thanks to the Grizz. They scored just 82 points in a 29 point loss. Predictably, after suffering such a blowout, they'll be getting plenty more points in Game 2. That's a perfect time to attack, in my opinion. Needless to say, it's not as if things can go any worse than they did Saturday where they shot only 39.2% from the floor and the Spurs shot 53.2%. As explained in my analysis for Game 1, losing Tony Allen hurts both literally and figuratively, but Memphis remains a staunch defensive team. They also beat San Antonio twice during the regular season. Granted, both wins were at home, but never have they gotten this many points.

With a pointspread this high and a total so low, taking points just seems like the natural way to go. It should be pointed out that it was only a three-point game at halftime Saturday and Memphis actually led after one quarter of play. After halftime, they could make nothing. They scored just 33 pts in the second half. Incredibly, they scored only 52 points over the last three quarters! That's very rare. As good as the Spurs are defensively (#1 in efficiency), they will be hard pressed to match that Game 1 performance. They key trend here is that double digit dogs are 26-12-1 ATS come playoff time when off a SU loss. Think of the Grizzlies as a stock. This is a good "buy low" situation.

I know that in the analysis for my Game 1 Over play, I wrote extensively about the impact Allen's absence would have. But the Grizzlies were the #3 team in defensive efficiency during the regular season and should be able to play respectable enough on that end of the floor even w/o Allen. Kawhi Leonard is unlikely to match Saturday's performance in which he matched a career playoff high w/ 32 points. Lost in the blowout was the fact the Grizzlies' Marc Gasol scored 25 first half points, the most by any player against a Greg Popovich team in playoff history! Gasol obviously isn't likely to be as prolific in the first 24 minutes here, but he's also likely to score more than the seven he scored in the second half Saturday. Spurs are just 2-5 ATS L7 when leading in a playoff series. 10* Memphis.